Trinity-Spadina only became an NDP "safe seat" after Chow won it. Vaughn's personal popularity was also an important factor. Churchill is a safe an NDP seat as there is. If the party is scared it will lose it, it has bigger problems.

It has flipped back and forth between NDP and Liberal albeit with stronger NDP ties. Still wouldn't chance it.

The NDP had been rising in the polls since the PST debacle. They went from the low 20s to 32%, though they dropped back to 30% in the most recent poll. The PCs dropped more though going from 45% to 42%.

I don't believe a 12% gap is unwinnable a year and a half from the next election.

So Struthers, Howard, Swan and Selby have all basically said Selinger has to go. Oswald is playing her cards closer to her vest but strongly hinted that she is concerned about Selinger staying on. Of these five, three have known leadership aspirations (Oswald, Swan and Howard) and I would not be surprised if Selby did too. As Michael Heseltine once wryly remarked, he who wields the knife never wears the Crown, so it's surprising to see Swan, Selby and Howard nakedly pushing for Selinger's ouster. (Oswald is probably keeping that Heseltine quote in mind.)

Steve Ashton chose his words carefully, saying this is an internal matter that should remain internal.

So by my count, there's roughly one-third of the Cabinet supporting the Premier, four that have called on him to step down, two who haven't said anything strongly one way or the other, and the rest (approximately a third) thus far unaccounted for.

I think this move would give Pallister credibility, which is the worst thing the NDP could do. Under another leader, the Conservatives could be a considerable threat but with Pallister at the reigns, that threat is diminished. Other than being uninspirining, the worst thing Sellinger has done is raise the PST without a referendum. In the scheme of political faux pas and scandals, it's not earth shattering.

Other than being uninspirining, the worst thing Sellinger has done is raise the PST without a referendum. In the scheme of political faux pas and scandals, it's not earth shattering.

I disagree. The simple matter is, Sellinger campaigned on the idea that he wouldn't have to raise taxes, then he went and raised them. In other words, he either lied during the election or he broke his promise afterwards. Regardless of the actual issue, this plays right into the public perception that politicians are liars who will say anything to get elected and then do what they want afterwards. He has also handed NDP critics a convenient club with which to beat the NDP over the head well into the future. Just look at how the PCs have had to wear the MTS privatization long after the fact.

More simply, on the basic principle of the matter, why is it okay for Sellinger to break his promise to not raise the PST but it wasn't okay for Filmon to break his promise to privatize MTS?

I would agree that changing leaders is a sign of desparation. The signs of trouble were coming long before then. Judy lost the 2010 mayoral race then partly because the NDP was slipping in popularity back then. And any idiot with half a brain could have seen at the time that raising the PST would hurt the NDP because a) Sellinger had promised not to raise sales taxes, and b) it plays right into the hands of NDP critics who insist that the NDP is a tax-and-spend party. I also agree that the NDP government will wear this, and whoever the new leader is will not be able to distance him or herself from that decision. It also won't make a difference to the direction of the government, because party structures over time become hardened, the direction is set, and changing a face at the top will not make a difference. Just look at how stubborn Sellinger is being about stepping down under the circumstances. Witness the failure of Lorne Calvert to significantly change the NDP's direction next door in Saskatchewan. It's time for the old guard to step down and let in some fresh blood and ideas, and usually that only happens when a party is defeated.

I think the most prudent course of action is to assume that the PCs will win the next election and organize around that possibility. Let's face it, we live in a democracy, and in a democracy our friends cannot stay on the governing side of the aisle forever. So rather than trying to backstop or prevent the fall of an unpopular government, we should organize around the issues that are important (i.e. health care, poverty reduction, child care, labour rights, privatization of crown corporations, what have you) and really push to keep them front and centre during the election, and also afterwards to not only mitigate against the damage the PCs will do but if we keep up enough pressure they may have a couple of pleasant surprises on some issues.

As for Nikki Ashton leading the Manitoba NDP? My answer is no, no, no, no, a thousand times no, no, no, no, and no. Hunky_Monkey is right about potentially losing another great MP, but there's another reason. She would be painted in the public mind as just another career politician lining up at the trough simply because of who her dad is. Maybe that's unfair to her, but that's the cold, harsh reality. Ideally, this person would have an accomplished career outside of politics, but also an amazing capacity for organizing and having the clarity to express a vision for where the province needs to go into the future. Kevin Chief is one person who might come to mind. Can we think of anyone else?

There's another issue here that has been overlooked. The Manitoba NDP switched back to choosing its leaders via the delegate system, rather than OMOV. So should Sellinger walk the plank, this gives the establishment power to pack the convention to get the leadership candidate that the establishment wants. Aside from sorting out the leadership mess, it's also important for the NDP to have a conversation about how it chooses its members, and it's higly unlikely that converstation will happen before the leadership vote.

Remember that there were people in the party establishment who didn't appreciate the support that Ashton received in some ethnic communities, and they tried to smear him for that. I fear something similar could happen this time.

The NDP had been rising in the polls since the PST debacle. They went from the low 20s to 32%, though they dropped back to 30% in the most recent poll. The PCs dropped more though going from 45% to 42%.

I don't believe a 12% gap is unwinnable a year and a half from the next election.

I agree. The NDP is not out of the race yet. It's too soon to declare the PC's the winner of the next Manitoba election.

BUT if the internal discord between Selinger and the cabinet ministers continues, you could see those NDP numbers going back down again and the PC's rising up further.

Civil wars within a party do damage it over time.

Look at the effect the Chretien-Martin feud had on the Federal Liberals.

Over the past number of months, it has become increasingly clear to me and others that Selinger has not convinced Manitobans he made the right decision. Manitobans still don't understand why he changed his mind on the PST. They want him held accountable. We see this in the polls and we saw this vividly during the recent City of Winnipeg campaign -- when voters told campaigns for NDP-affiliated candidates they felt betrayed by the premier, and while they could trust some of our council candidates, they were not willing to trust us with the top job.

Manitobans feel betrayed by Selinger and, as a result, they will not trust him again.

To send a message to him, Manitobans are prepared to go down a different path from the one we started down together in 1999. I know Manitobans don't want deep cuts to infrastructure, health care and other front-line services, but it appears they are ready to support a party committed to those cuts so they can punish Selinger.

What Selinger does next in the political saga that’s enveloped the NDP government — much to the glee of the Opposition Progressive Conservatives—is expected to be played out over the coming days and certainly before the government introduces its throne speech, expected after Remembrance Day.

Selinger, in announcing he’s staying on as premier, has threatened that if the five cabinet ministers don’t want to support him, they could be expelled from cabinet or choose to resign. There is no indication today that any action has been taken by or against Finance Minister Jennifer Howard, Municipal Affairs Minister Stan Struthers, Jobs and the Economy Minister Theresa Oswald, Justice Minister Andrew Swan and Health Minister Erin Selby.

1. Is the anger over the PST directed at Selinger specifically or at the NDP more broadly?

2. If Selinger is turfed, who is going to take over? Especially considering everyone in caucus supported the PST increase and didn't say anything about it until about a week after Judy lost the mayoral election.

What I'm interested to see is whether the Provincial situation in Manitoba has an effect on the Federal level.

We've already seen some evidence over the past year that the declining popularity of Selinger may be harming the Federal NDP. (eg. the November 2013 by-elections in which the Mulcair NDP dropped to 3rd in both Brandon-Souris & Provencher and was beaten by the Trudeau Liberals).

Will this trendline continue into the 2015 Federal election in other ridings in Manitoba, to the benefit of Trudeau & Harper?

1. Is the anger over the PST directed at Selinger specifically or at the NDP more broadly?

It's the NDP that is wearing this.

genstrike wrote:

2. If Selinger is turfed, who is going to take over? Especially considering everyone in caucus supported the PST increase and didn't say anything about it until about a week after Judy lost the mayoral election.

What I'm interested to see is whether the Provincial situation in Manitoba has an effect on the Federal level.

We've already seen some evidence over the past year that the declining popularity of Selinger may be harming the Federal NDP. (eg. the November 2013 by-elections in which the Mulcair NDP dropped to 3rd in both Brandon-Souris & Provencher and was beaten by the Trudeau Liberals).

Will this trendline continue into the 2015 Federal election in other ridings in Manitoba, to the benefit of Trudeau & Harper?

People don't always vote the same municipally, provincially, and federally. We won't know until the election. Sometimes party affiliations can spill over, however, that obviously happened in 1988.

Seen this Selinger movie play-out a few times before here in BC. Socred Vander Zalm back in the late 80's. Terrible mess that was and went worse. Not quite the parallel with MB today. Even Premier Harcourt resigning has somewhat similar underpinnings.

BC Lib Campbell in late 2010 - one cabinet minister resigned but don't recall senior cabinet ministers speaking out publicly. Still, media pressure and pressure behind scenes was apparently too much causing Campbell to resign. That, in turn, caused the knives to come out for BC NDP leader Carole James a few weeks later. 'Cause many BC NDP MLAs believed that they couldn't win with Campbell gone. All ugly events played out in the BC media.

Have to say am very surprised at the turn of events in MB. Senior cabinet ministers speaking out? Major party leadership as well?

Unfortunately, it's all over now for Selinger. The entire provincial political focus will be upon Selinger moving forward. And the media focus will be intense. Can't go back now. Pandora's Box has been opened. Question is - when will Selinger make his announcement? Only when the presure becomes unbearable and he finally sees the writing on the wall.

If the PST increase is the major issue behind the MB NDP lagging ... any new leader must come from outside caucus because they are all "politically tainted" by same. Politics 101. Are there any moderate and popular MB polis outside caucus?

Once elected new leader, they will get a bounce, surpassing the MB PCs, for a short while. After 6 months the same polling malaise will set in. Seen the same movie here several times in BC. That's why it would be important for the new MB NDP leader calling an election within a few weeks "to seek a new mandate". Wait much longer and the poli risk increases exponentially.

Sorry for getting ahead of MB politics. But this quip from the WPF caught my attention:

Quote:

Those pushing for Selinger to resign are hoping to duplicate in Manitoba what former B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell’s 2010 resignation did for the B.C. Liberals. The West Coast Liberals experienced a resurgence in public opinion polls and have remained in power under new leader Christy Clark.

But Clark waited tooo long and did not call an immediate election. Although she was apparently advised to do so. She waited another 2 years until the mandated May, 2013 election date. By then Clark was in a much, much worse polling position than Selinger is in today with Probe Research.

And that's why campaigns do matter. Clark portrayed herself as the "less risky" option. Or conversely, portrayed the BC NDP as the "risky" option. 10% - 20% of swing voters are swayed by the "risky" scenario. And where did the BC Libs learn their strategy? From none other than a senior MB NDP strategist after Selinger was elected. The MB NDP successfully portrayed the previous PC leader as the "risky" option. Don't know current MB PC leader to ascertain whether he has same "risk stigma" as his predecessor.

Again, that's why the MB NDP won (v. the MB PCs), and the QC Libs (v. the PQ) and the ON Libs (v. the ONPCs), and the AB PCs (v. the WR) and the BC Libs (v. the BC NDP). They successfuly portrayed their opponents as the "risky" option.

My initial 2 cents as I am watching this all unfold from here on the west coast.

"Over the past number of months, it has become increasingly clear to me and others that Selinger has not convinced Manitobans he made the right decision. Manitobans still don't understand why he changed his mind on the PST. They want him held accountable."

All the names I've heard mentioned as successors are in the cabinet and they all voted in favor in increasing the PST. Putting one of them in charge wouldn't make a difference. Christy Clark was not in the government at the time of the HST.

What I'm interested to see is whether the Provincial situation in Manitoba has an effect on the Federal level.

We've already seen some evidence over the past year that the declining popularity of Selinger may be harming the Federal NDP. (eg. the November 2013 by-elections in which the Mulcair NDP dropped to 3rd in both Brandon-Souris & Provencher and was beaten by the Trudeau Liberals).

Will this trendline continue into the 2015 Federal election in other ridings in Manitoba, to the benefit of Trudeau & Harper?

People don't always vote the same municipally, provincially, and federally. We won't know until the election. Sometimes party affiliations can spill over, however, that obviously happened in 1988.

True. I'm not expecting a direct overlap between what is going on provincially to the federal scene.

I was just saying that based on the Federal by-elections in Manitoba in 2013 in Brandon-Souris & Provencher, and the NDP losses in Winnipeg North & Elmwood-Transcona in 2010-2011, I think there has been erosion in NDP support federally.

It may or may not lead to further changes in the next Federal election.

I can tell you that I for one will be parking my vote if Sellinger's ouster goes as planned. I have no respect for Swan, Howard et al who are trying to orchestrate this move. I will not vote for a newly constituted NDP party that jettisoned a perfectly capable leader just because Judy lost a municipal election or for whatever other foolhardy, idiotic reason they may have. Pallister is a DUD. He is no Bowman who is going to take a landslide victory in the next election.

If we end up with an uber right premier because of this move, I am likely to never support the provincial NDP ever again. In the scheme of things, I don't give a sh*t if an NDP government is not as progressive as I would like it to be or serves more as a caretaker. Because in these times, taking care of what we take for granted is a lot more important than losing everything to neoconservative privatizations and downsizing.

I am so pissed off with this public infighting and the prospects of leadership change that I am likely to vote Communist, Liberal or Green in the next provincial election. And I bet I'm not the only one. The NDP executive and king makers may want to think a bit more deeply before they compare the Sellinger government to McGuinty's Liberals or Campbell's Liberals. Jettison the leader at your own peril.

The problem is that when many senior cabinet ministers, MLAs, etc. speak out publicly about Selinger... and others from the party hierarchy come out of the woodwork to the MSM... it opens up Pandora's Box, which can never be shut. It starts the ball rolling and things begin to unravel and get out of control.

The MB MSM is now focused upon a "death watch" and that becomes the political narrative. The public is inundated with same. Then subsequent polls by Probe Research show a slide in MB NDP support. And then this "thing" feeds on itself again. And then further declines in MB NDP support thereafter. Akin to a speeding freight train, which is unstoppable. Sorry, but it's over for Selinger. Unfortunately. The ugly underbelly of politics.

Frankly, I have been taken aback by the events unfolding in the MB NDP. Selinger is a reasonably good preem and the MB NDP is in the doldrums right now. So what. Not that far back from the PCs, which a campaign can't overcome. And if Pallister is anything like McFadyen, the PCs are not winnable in Winnipeg, where the majority of seats are extant.

What this shows is that the internal mechanisms for expressing dissent had been gutted, and when dissent is not permitted, it eventually boils over into these ugly kinds of things, and it was bound to happen eventually. The big turning point, it seems, was raising the PST after promising not to in the last provincial election. How is it that nobody in the NDP had seen this backlash coming?

As for Pallister, much as I dislike him, I'm not as worried about him as some people are. For one, he's not particularly bright, and he will inevitably crash and burn in the spotlight that is the Premier's chair (although that said, the NDP would be foolish to think they could capitalize on that without any work of their own). The other thing is that the next provincial election will happen before Manitoba goes to the polls. Federally, there's a good chance that if the NDP isn't outright governing, then it will be in some sort of coalition arrangement with the Liberals, which likely means increased transfers in areas like health care, child care, and public housing. With increasing transfers, Pallister simply will not have political cover for massive cuts, unlike Filmon who was governing when federal transfers were being reduced. And as I said earlier, it's foolish to count on the NDP being in government forever and ever, so we need to be vigilant about lobbying for what we want no matter who is in power. In other words, I don't want to stop Pallister because I'm scared that he would privatize Hydro, I would like to create a political climate such that Pallister wouldn't dare.

And by the way, Andrew Swan should follow his principles by crossing the floor to sit in the PC caucus, and Stan Struthers was probably the most incompetent finance minister I have ever seen since I started following Manitoba politics.

What is also clear to me is that Manitoba voters would love to throw out both the NDP and PC parties if they could.

It just goes to show how incredibly weak the provincial Liberal party is when they cannot exploit the voters' clear fatigue with the NDP and discomfort with the Conservatives. Shades of 1988, when voters were strongly motivated to boot the NDP government but not ready to hand Filmon a blank cheque, and so the Liberals were catapulted from 1 seat to 20, polling only 3 points behind the Tories in the popular vote. It helped that they had a dogged and dynamic leader in Sharon Carstairs.

It just goes to show how incredibly weak the provincial Liberal party is when they cannot exploit the voters' clear fatigue with the NDP and discomfort with the Conservatives. Shades of 1988, when voters were strongly motivated to boot the NDP government but not ready to hand Filmon a blank cheque, and so the Liberals were catapulted from 1 seat to 20, polling only 3 points behind the Tories in the popular vote. It helped that they had a dogged and dynamic leader in Sharon Carstairs.

And a ham sandwich running under the Green Party banner in Wolseley can count on at least 20% of the vote.

Ghoris, I wish there was a Sharon Carstairs to vote for given the crap that is going down with the NDP. If the public is so hell bent on punishing Sellinger and the NDP (and changing leaders at this point is only going to make things worse in my view), I wish there was a realistic alternative that wasn't Pallister.

PS: Its true that Christy Clark wasn't in government when the HST was passed, BUT she supported it 100% and she actively campaigned in favour of the HST in the referendum so she couldn't escape being seen as pro-HST. The biggest difference is that because the HST referendum lost - it actually was rolled back. Would a new Manitoba NDP leader repeal the PST increase?

So apparently the Free Press will be reporting tomorrow that the so-called "Gang of Five" (Howard, Oswald, Selby, Struthers, Swan) are set to resign from Cabinet. Assuming that comes to pass, Selinger may appoint various acting ministers from within the existing Cabinet ranks to cover those portfolios in the short term, but sooner or later there's going to be a Cabinet shuffle which will likely result in at least a few new faces joining the ranks of the ministry.

Personally, I think the current Cabinet is too large and some of the Ministers have rather tiny portfolios (Minister of Mineral Resources as a stand-alone job? Seems a bit make-work to me. Ditto Minister of Multiculturalism and Literacy and Minister of Children and Youth Opportunities.) If Selinger were smart he'd trim the size of Cabinet and re-assign the portfolios of the Gang of Five among the existing ministers on a permanent basis. That said, even in that scenario I would imagine we'd still see at least a couple of new faces.

Just speculating wildly here, but this may be Drew Caldwell's ticket back into Cabinet with the departure of Struthers. I could also see Nancy Allan making a return to Cabinet with the departure of two high-profile female ministers from southeast Winnipeg. Selinger might see fit to replace Swan with either Deanne Crothers or Melanie Wight if he wants to maintain the number of ministers from north and west Winnipeg. Another former minister, Jim Rondeau, could be in the mix. Matt Wiebe is caucus chair and might be a possibility, but he's a former assistant to Doer and was not among the 15 who pledged their loyalty at Selinger's press conference. I can't see any other obvious candidates but I guess we'll see.

Looks like I was not too far off. Caldwell is back in Cabinet at Municipal Affairs. Blady is promoted to Health and Crothers takes her old Healthy Living and Seniors job. Chief is promoted to Jobs and Economy and Wight gets his old Children and Youth portfolio. Allum replaces Swan at Justice and Bjornson takes over from him at Education. Bjornson's Housing and Community Development portfolio gets added to Kerri Irvin-Ross' responsibilities at Family Services. Robinson adds responsibility for Hydro.

Size of cabinet is trimmed by one from 19 to 18.

The shocker is Greg Dewar going to Finance. He's never held a cabinet post in the entire 15-year life of this government, and now he suddenly gets the most important job of all?

It looks like Chief's star is on the rise, and to a lesser extent Allum and Blady as well. I wonder if Selinger is promoting them as potential successors/challengers to the Gang of Five should he eventually have to step down?

WINNIPEG – Five senior cabinet ministers in Manitoba resigned their posts Monday, saying Premier Greg Selinger has stopped listening to them and cares more about his own power than staying true to NDP priorities.

“In recent weeks and months it has become clear to us that he is increasingly being driven by his desire to hold onto his leadership rather than the best interests of Manitobans,” Finance Minister Jennifer Howard said.

“In recent months, it’s become clear that if you are in a position where you support the point of view of the premier, that your priorities and your projects move up the queue ahead of what was once a government plan and what would be indeed the priorities of Manitobans,” added Theresa Oswald, minister for jobs and the economy.

Others resigning included Health Minister Erin Selby, Justice Minister Andrew Swan and Municipal Government Minister Stan Struthers. He was finance minister when the government raised the provincial sales tax to eight per cent from seven last year.

Can someone advise as to the mechanisms of an NDP leadership review in Manitoba.
I understand there is a convention in the spring. Is the leadership automatically on the line? Will there be vote about having a leadership convention?

Can someone advise as to the mechanisms of an NDP leadership review in Manitoba. I understand there is a convention in the spring. Is the leadership automatically on the line? Will there be vote about having a leadership convention?

Unlike the federal party where the delegates are asked to vote in favour or against a leadership review, the process in Manitoba is that someone has to challenge the leader from the Convention Floor.

Looks like I was not too far off. Caldwell is back in Cabinet at Municipal Affairs. Blady is promoted to Health and Crothers takes her old Healthy Living and Seniors job. Chief is promoted to Jobs and Economy and Wight gets his old Children and Youth portfolio. Allum replaces Swan at Justice and Bjornson takes over from him at Education. Bjornson's Housing and Community Development portfolio gets added to Kerri Irvin-Ross' responsibilities at Family Services. Robinson adds responsibility for Hydro.

Size of cabinet is trimmed by one from 19 to 18.

The shocker is Greg Dewar going to Finance. He's never held a cabinet post in the entire 15-year life of this government, and now he suddenly gets the most important job of all?

It looks like Chief's star is on the rise, and to a lesser extent Allum and Blady as well. I wonder if Selinger is promoting them as potential successors/challengers to the Gang of Five should he eventually have to step down?

Actually, he was the Government Whip from 1999 to 2009, followed by a brief stint as Legislative Assistant to the then-Finance Minister (Wowchuk) before being re-appointed Whip in 2011. In any event, Government Whip is not a Cabinet post.

The shocker is Greg Dewar going to Finance. He's never held a cabinet post in the entire 15-year life of this government, and now he suddenly gets the most important job of all?

Yeah, you want someone with either business or accounting experience or long time Cabinet experience before taking on that role. From a political standpoint, it's not very wise, it's not as if the Opposition parties don't have enough to work with already. My guess is that by putting someone this weak in Finance is that Sellinger is ensuring he won't have any resistance to his agenda, particularly on finance. Time will tell if I have to retract what I said about Struthers upthread.

I'm also quite certain that one way or another, neither Caldwell nor Struthers will be back as MLAs after the next election.