Stock chart patterns and technical analysis (TA) explained simply. Disclaimer: This blog and all its contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade or invest based on any information seen on this blog. Please read Terms of Service. VIEW IN GOOGLE CHROME BROWSER. DISABLE YOUR ADBLOCK SOFTWARE.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election Day is here. America rejoices not because they
prefer one candidate or the other but instead because the long campaign
nightmare is over. Rejoice! Americans cheer an end to the insults, lewd videos,
negative television commercials and hollow promises that will never come to
fruition. The winner likely faces a sick economy and troubled markets ahead.

The polls give Clinton a two to four percentage-point lead
over Trump in the popular vote. The popular vote, however, does not elect the
president. The United States is a representative republican and the states
select the president through the electoral college system. 270 electoral
college votes are required to win and Clinton has been projected a winner of
270-plus votes for the last three months albeit fading into today. The bookies
are predicting a Clinton win with odds at 4 to 1 or 5 to 1.

Some analysts, typically Trump proponents, tout the Brexit
vote surprise and how the polls may be all wrong and Trump may be victorious.
The polls and bookies did get it wrong for Brexit but that was a very close
vote. What analysts fail to mention is that politician Jo Cox was assassinated a
few days before the Brexit referendum and she wanted to stay in the European
Union (anti-Brexit). The bookies and pollsters likely assigned a sympathy vote
due to Cox’s death and that is where they got it wrong. Brit’s were committed
to their vote and the death of pretty Jo Cox, who left a couple daughters
behind, did not sway voters to stay in the EU. The Brexit vote won.

Back to the US race, Keystone lists the pros and cons for
each candidate. Perhaps that will paint a picture of which candidate has the
upper hand. Polling results will be reported for the first time in many years
during the day. Typically, news sources wait for polls to close before
reporting results but votecastr.us will keep a running tally today.

Democrat Hillary Clinton’s Advantages;

First woman president.Electoral
college map.

Clinton has
more campaign money than Trump.

Clinton has
a better ground game to get out the vote.

President
Obama, Michelle Obama and Vice President Biden stump for Clinton.

More
democrats vote than republicans.

City folks
favor Clinton and they outnumber rural folks.

More women
than men vote; women elect the POTUS.

Women
typically do not like a bombastic, insulting male personality.

Women do not
like men that are unable to apologize.

Women do not
like to be called fat pigs and other hurtful derogatory names.

Blacks favor
Clinton by 98 to 2 margin.

Hispanics
favor Clinton by 70 to 30 margin.

More old
than young vote and they do not want trouble with social security.

Voters under
30 favor Clinton.

College
graduates prefer Clinton over Trump.

College
campuses tout liberalism which increases democratic votes.

Increased
migration into the United States increases democratic votes.

Clinton
edged out Trump in the three debates; Trump appeared unprepared.

Prior Bush
presidents and former candidate Romney not voting for Trump.

A terrorist
attack did not occur which would have helped Trump.

Clinton has
a floor of 44% in polls while Trump has a 44% ceiling in polls.

Typical busy
family has no time to understand Clinton scandal news.

Weather is
calm and rain-free in most locations today favoring democrats.

Clinton’s
television ads and number of ads are superior to Trump’s.

More
celebrities tout Clinton since Hollywood and the arts lean democratic.

More political
surrogates tout Clinton since the majority of media leans liberal.

40% of the
country has voted early which may be a slight advantage to Clinton.Economy is generally perceived as doing well.Big money backers include Warren Buffett, George Soros, Silicon Valley, General Electric, etc...Celebrities and entertainers back Clinton including Bruce Springsteen, Jennifer Lopez, Jay Z, Beyonce, Katy Perry and Bill Maher.

Some
analysts say a few million Trump supporters are not counted in the polls (the so-called 'silent Trump supporters').

Looking at
it subjectively, there are 37 advantages for Clinton and 19 advantages for Trump
and the clock has run out. Nonetheless, the orange-headed bombastic bloviating carnival
barker may pull out the unexpected win against the scandal-ridden liar in the pantsuit.
Judging from the above list, Clinton should have it in the bag and has already
measured the Oval Office for a new rug and drapes.

Over
one-half of the country will dislike the winner which creates a tough governing
environment. The US Senate race is key since if Clinton wins and the Senate
turns democratic her power and control will increase. The US Congress is made
up of the House (governors) and the Senate (senators). There are 100 senators
two for each of the 50 states. There are 435 representatives in the House
assigned according to the population distribution in the US. Republicans
control both houses currently. The GOP (Grand Old Party; republicans) hold the
Senate majority currently with 54 seats. The democrats need to win five seats
in the Senate to flip control of that body in their favor and aid Clinton’s
policies going forward (if she wins).

The stock market is favorable to a Clinton win since she is
already in the back pocket of the investment banks, however, if the Senate
turns democratic that may prove problematic for stocks. The stock market likes
gridlock in Washington, DC, since politicians tend to screw up whatever they
touch and gridlock prevents them from doing something stupid. A Clinton
presidency with the House and Senate remaining republican is what Wall Street prefers.

One thing no one talks about is the third party
candidates and the country may be surprised that libertarian Johnson and green
party Stein may take far more votes than predicted. In a few hours, the long
over-one-year-drama will finally end. Sing praise! Halleluiah! Halleluiah! However,
does America now move from the frying pan into the fire?Note Added on Wednesday, 11/9/16: It has been a crazy night. Trump surprised the consensus and takes the victory. Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States. S&P futures had fallen more than -110 points but the SPX opens flat this morning.Trump wins despite having far less advantages as listed above. He accelerated in key areas to squeeze out the win. Clinton actually wins the popular vote. The rust belt and rural community loyalty to Trump was highly underestimated. There is a rural-urban divide in the United States. The silent Trump supporters were a major force that few saw coming. White men and white women voted for Trump. Parents likely voted for Trump because Clinton is not a good role model when teaching the children to not lie, cheat or steal. One-third of Latino men voted for Trump (they want jobs). The right track/wrong track poll proves why this question is always important and typically correct. The Populism movement grows around the world. Americans wanted a change and are sick of the elite class running the show screwing the middle class and poor. Common Americans grab pitchforks and torches and are ready to do battle with the privileged elite ruling class.

Technical Analysis for Dummies

About Keystone

Disclaimer

Do not invest based on anything you view or read on this blog. This blog is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Please read the Terms and Conditions.