Looks like Gary doesn't get to the 15% to qualify for the debates, though his numbers are pretty strong.

I don't think that's the NBC poll used by the Commision. It's likely the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Hart Research Marist Poll of live voters via cell and landlines. NBC/Survey Monkey is an internet-only poll.

And the argument when Clinton goes down and Trump doesn't move is "Oh, people just don't want to say they'll vote for her, but it's not like they are going to switch to Trump; they are switching to undecided. They'll be back"

It's not Clinton ceding the center to Trump, its Clinton losing the left and Trump gaining the right?

The same thing happened in 2012 after the first debate. Republicans who had lost faith to Romney regained their confidence and Mittens had a big jump in the polls.But Obama's internals barely budged and in the end he won more or less with the exact same margin they showed him almost from the beginning of the summer.