Colts-Texans preview with Nate Dunlevy

I can’t imagine what it would be like to sign your Hall of Fame bound quarterback to a huge contract and then learn right before the season he will be out for an unknown amount of time with an injury that could possibly be career ending.

I don’t want to imagine what Houston would be like if the Texans lose to the Colts led by a guy who just got off his couch.

Nate Dunlevy (@18to88) is a Colts fan and blogger who is rightfully extremely down about the Peyton Manning news. He runs the 18to88 blog, has written a book about the Colts after the move to Indy called, Blue Blood, and his first novel, Invincible, Indiana comes out in November. I asked him as a part of my Texans-Colts preview to answer a few questions:

What is the best information we know about the status of Peyton Manning?

“Manning’s arm lacks feeling due to a lack of progress after neck surgery. The nerves in his neck are not responding. Many in the Colts fear the worst and it’s likely that he’ll have to have surgery again. Manning is out for the foreseeable future. This is not a short term injury. Here’s the piece I wrote on it this week.”

[Steph Update: This is what Colts owner Jim Irsay tweeted this morning about the injury:

If you look at Jim Irsay’s tweets, you might think he’s a bit nuts. But he’s an extremely rich guy, so he’s not crazy, he’s eccentric. I’d like to be eccentric./end of Steph note]

[Steph Update at 2:00 pm: It’s official from Chris Mortensen-Manning had surgery this morning]

What do you think the Colts game plan will be with no Manning in the lineup?

“I think they’ll play a lot of 2 TE and try and protect Collins. I expect a lot of run heavy sets. Run, run, pass, punt.”

If you were planning against the 2011 Colts offense and defense, how would you attack them?

“I would rush Kerry Collins all the time. He’s not mobile and the Indy line isn’t any good at all. I expect him take around 3-4 sacks a game. I’d bring pressure on every play.

The defense is largely unchanged. You beat the Colts the same way you always did. Lots of runs and bootleg passing.”

What do you consider the strengths of the Colts squad?

“Without Manning, their only discernible strengths are the defensive ends (Mathis and Freeney) and Pat McAfee, the punter.”

What concerns Colts fans other than the no Manning thing? (Realize that may sound like a “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?” question).

“I have felt for some time that Indy has a bottom five defense. They have young linebackers who miss assignments and they are thin at all positions. Additionally, the offensive line is very poor.”

Who are some Colts players to watch that Texans fans may not be familiar with who could may be difference makers in this game either positively or negatively?

“Jacob Tamme could see a lot of action in two TE sets on offense. Rookie left tackle Anthony Castonzo could prove in over his head against Mario Williams as well.

On defense Melvin Bullitt is back at safety, but he’s a major question mark who hasn’t played well in some time.”

Any question I should have asked but didn’t that you think fans would want to know about?

“The Colts are not a good football team without Manning. The only question isn’t whether or not the Texans will beat them; the only question is by how much.”

I don’t know what the Texans defense is going to do. Any possible outcome would not surprise, so I put that as a question mark.

Kerry Collins sort of traumatizes me. Yeah, there was last year’s loss against the Titans on the road. However, the most lasting memories come from games where I was actually present. The one in particular that comes to mind was the game where the Texans played terrible for most of the game, Schaub left due to injury and most of the stadium emptied. (Yes, I realize those details don’t narrow it down). Those of us who remained saw backup Sage Rosenfels connected with Andre Davis for a touchdown with under a minute to play. On a 3rd and 10 from his own 37, Collins managed to connect on a 46 yard pass that set up the Titans winning field goal.

GAH. Don’t like to think how that moment felt after such a good moment after the Davis TD. Felt sort of caved in.

After the game, Collins said that he knew he could make that play work because pre-snap, he saw the coverage and knew this would be open. Of course, that was in 2007, a few Collins’ gray beard hairs ago, but still, it traumatizes. He’s in the collective Texans fan memory.

In a less traumatizing note, this is what NFL Films Greg Cosell says on Twitter about the matchup this year:

[If you aren’t already on Twitter for the NFL season, I strongly suggest that you do it. It makes watching the games more fun, often gives you info you didn’t already know and gives you something to do during commercials other than bathroom and food runs. You don’t have to say anything if you don’t want to, but it is an easy way to interact with players, media and other fans. If you don’t have any idea who to follow, I suggest checking out the people I follow. Most of them are NFL folks, sports bloggers I know, fantasy football types and a few fans–people who you want to hear what they say. You can still interact with people you don’t follow.If you don’t want to read about what people are eating for lunch, then don’t follow people who write about what they are eating for lunch. You can follow me by clicking to the Twitter button on the right margin or for those of you reading this on mobile, this @StephStradley link. Looking at Twitter on my phone is my favorite thing to do when I’m stuck in lines or waiting on things. Makes waiting more tolerable].

About the Texans offense.

Have a concern with the Texans offense for this game. By Football Outsider’s measurements, last year, Matt Schaub’s worst passing performance was against the Colts on the road. He had his 4th worst game last season against the Colts at home. (Giants 2nd worst, Cowboys 3rd worst). The Colts made it very difficult for the Texans to complete their bread and butter short passing plays they use to move the chains, deal with the pass rush. Hopefully that isn’t something repeats as Schaub has had good games in the past against the Colts.

Everyone wants the running game to function so much that every running back active that day gets a great workout. (Except of course, you fantasy football types, and I don’t care about your wants as long as the Texans win).

I am not discussing these parade of horribles to be a pre-game buzzkill. Pretty much the entire home stadium is going to be filled with hopeful skeptics. If the Texans win, they were supposed to win. If they lose or struggle against a Manning-less Colts, it’s more of the Same Old Texans. The home fanbase is tired of screaming like crazy on 3rd down seeing opponents convert. (By FO metrics, the Texans were rated 30th in the league last year on 3rd down stops. Not that they were any better on 1st and 2nd downs, at 32nd and 28th respectively).

The Texans have had a pre-season focus on fast starts. They changed the structure of their camp drills to get the team going quickly in the sessions. It’s not just important for winning football but for getting the crowd more into the game to help force false starts and the like.

Apologies for going dark. It is something that the fanbase is used to. As much as some fans say the Texans don’t know how to win, I think the Texans fanbase has an even harder time picturing positive results and good fortune. Ghosts of young Mike Renfro, Frank Reich and all that. Bygones.

Speaking of the influence of crowds. It isn’t as much with the advent of instant replay, but I do think crowds do influence officials still today. So tough to watch: