Who will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup Final?

So it all comes down to this: After the desperately underwhelming performance of England as host, two of rugby’s powerhouse nations, Australia and New Zealand, stand toe-to-toe in the decider – the final of Rugby World Cup 2015.

But, it’s not all doom, gloom and despair for England. Using data visualization and Business Intelligence software to assess past performances and current form, a comfortable New Zealand victory seems probable – if not inevitable. So, at the very least, Englishmen everywhere can be comforted by the fact that they can most likely laud the 2015 Ashes outcome over Australia for a little longer.

The All Black try-scoring machineBoth Australia and New Zealand have played and won six games to make it to the 2015 RWC Final. But, it’s the manner in which they’ve achieved their respective victories that highlights the gulf in class.

The All Blacks have scored 256 tournament points for an average of 43 points per game, while Australia’s 205 points at RWC 2015 give it an average of 34 point per match. Not only is the nine (8.5) points differential per game significant, it’s also clear that Australia have had to rely more on penalty kicks to overcome their opponents.

New Zealand has dived over the line on 36 occasions, compared to the Wallabies 26 tries. With 50 more points scored through tries, in conjunction with the fact that tries make-up a larger percentage of their already superior points tally (70.3% vs 63.4%), New Zealand look set to muscle their way past Australia.

What’s more, an analysis of the ruthlessness of New Zealand’s general play compared to Australia’s underscores just why they’ve been able to score more heavily and manufacture more tries.

Statistics from general play at RWC 2015: Australia vs New Zealand

Insights– New Zealand has gained 1085 more metres than Australia with ball in hand (3464 vs 2379). This could be a combination of the All Blacks’ 53 ‘offloads’ and 61 ‘clean breaks’ compared to Australia’s 35 offloads and 46 clean breaks.

– New Zealand has also had more ‘carries’ (756 vs 590) and ‘carries over gain line’ (325 vs 253) than Australia.

– Both teams have a similar number of ‘lineout wins’ (73 to Australia, 70 to New Zealand), but the All Blacks have made more ‘lineout steals’ (14 vs 8)

– Australia has completed significantly more tackles than New Zealand (726 vs 551) – 32% more in fact, which suggests the Wallabies have had to spend more time and energy defending compared to the All Blacks