Two Democratic candidates for Texas' 23rd Congressional District seat will continue their contest through July after neither won a majority Tuesday.

Former congressman Ciro Rodriguez and state Rep. Pete Gallego are headed to a July 31 runoff in the sprawling West Texas district. After 99 percent of precincts had been counted, Rodriguez won 46 percent, Gallego, 41 percent, and San Antonio attorney John Bustamante, 13 percent.

The winner of the runoff will be on the ballot Nov. 6 against Republican Congressman Francisco "Quico" Canseco, a freshman who defeated Rodriguez in 2010.

The seat has gotten attention from both national parties as the only swing district in Texas and one of 25 of the 435 House seats that the Cook Political Report lists as a toss-up.

"The national Democrats will target it because they need the seat," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University.

He explained that Demo crats must pick up 25 seats to take control of the House and that Texas' 23rd District is one of the few opportunities to do so. Jillson predicted that the Democratic Party would get about halfway to that goal in November.

Rodriguez twice has won congressional seats, only to lose them later. That prompted the national Democratic Party and some labor and environmental groups to support Gallego instead.

"They see him as an extended bet," Jillson said. He said that once elected, Gallego's supporters expect him to hold his seat in later elections.

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Now that the race is headed to a runoff, Jillson said he expects national Democrats and their allies to back off, knowing they'll have to work with Rodriguez if he wins.

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, disagreed.

"I think the people who invested in Gallego are going to continue to invest," Henson said.

A key to the runoff for Gallego, 50, will be to boost his name recognition -- particularly in Bexar County, which has been a political base for Rodriguez, 65.

Lonny Paris, Gallego's campaign manager, pointed to the fact that Bustamante, 35, drew thousands of votes in areas where Rodriguez is well known. Paris said not all voters who know Rodriguez like him.

Henson said Gallego probably has an opportunity to add some votes to his column in the San Antonio area, but the trick for him is to get those voters to the polls.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez faces a lot more travel if he wants to cut into Gallego's base in the 23rd District, which includes 29 counties and stretches from San Antonio to eastern El Paso County. For the past 22 years, Gallego has represented the state House District that includes Alpine.

That doesn't mean that Gallego, who trailed on Tuesday by more than 2,000 votes, has an advantage in the runoff.

"It's hard to say -- the front-runner has a tougher job," Henson said of Rodriguez.

Whoever prevails on July 31 will have a tough fight against the incumbent Canseco, who is sure to have national Republican money behind him, Henson said.

Two extra months of battling -- and spending -- will make either Democrat's job harder in November, Jillson said. But he predicted a close race.