The Yankees and Tigers were rained out today, and there’s a pretty good chance they’ll get rained out tomorrow too. The weather forecast in Detroit doesn’t look good at all. Here, to help you pass the time during this sudden Yankees baseball-less day, are some links and notes to check out.

Jeter skipping Yankees-Marlins series

The rebuilding Miami Marlins will be in the Bronx this week to play a quick two-game series Monday and Tuesday, but minority owner Derek Jeter will not make the trip, according to Joe Frisaro. Jeter told Frisaro he’s not making the trip because going to Yankee Stadium will be awkward. From Frisaro:

“I’m not going. I just want to let everybody know, I’m not going to New York. I went to the Spring Training game when we played New York. But it would be an awkward situation for me to actually go to Yankee Stadium. I’m just being honest with you guys. That’s why I’m not going. I knew it was going to be a story, one way or the other. So, I might as well get out in front of it and say, I’m not going. So, I will not be there.”

The Yankees will make a two-game trip to Miami later this season, and I imagine Jeter will be in the house for that. I wonder how long it’ll be until it’s not awkward for Jeter to come back to Yankee Stadium? Never is a long time. I’m sure it’ll happen at some point. Plenty of others have gone on to other teams and returned for Old Timers’ Day, for example. (Not as an owner though.) Jeter knows the Yankees enhance his personal #brand. I doubt he’ll cut ties completely.

A-Rod talked to Dodgers in 2007

Earlier this week Alex Rodriguez made some headlines when, on an ESPN broadcast, he said he wishes he would’ve signed with the Mets back during the 2000-01 offseason rather than the Rangers. Jon Heyman has a follow up column with a few fun notes. Two stand out in particular:

Brian Cashman and Scott Boras were discussing an eight-year extension worth $235M before A-Rod opted out in 2007. That would’ve added five new years on top of his existing contract.

After exercising the opt-out, Boras and the Dodgers were discussing a potential $320M contract over an unknown number of years.

After A-Rod opted out in 2007, it was widely reported Cashman wanted the Yankees to walk away, but ownership stepped in and re-signed him to his then record ten-year, $270M deal. That Dodgers deal would’ve been a total disaster given what he know now. A-Rod’s hip broke down and they don’t have a DH spot. Assuming that $320M deal covered ten years, Rodriguez would’ve become the first $30M a year player in history, beating Clayton Kershaw by seven years.

Yankees again ranked as most valuable MLB franchise

Once again, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in baseball according to Forbes. Forbes has compiling franchise valuations for 21 years now and the Yankees have been atop the list every year. The Yankees are valued at $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year. Their revenue is estimated at $619M, but their operating income is a mere $14M. Here are the most valuable franchises:

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 7. The Yankees are truly in a world of their own among the 30 MLB franchises.

As noted in the Forbes piece, the Yankees generate roughly 20% more revenue than any other team thanks to the YES Network, the still new ballpark, and other side ventures like Legends Hospitality. The average MLB franchise is worth $1.645 billion these days, which is ridiculous. The Marlins sold for $1.2 billion last year. Imagine what a mid-range franchise could go for on the open market.

Twelve games into the 2018 season, Didi Gregorius has not only been the best player on the Yankees, he’s been one of the best players in all of baseball. Sir Didi comes into today hitting .359/.471/.795 (239 wRC+) with three home runs. His +1.1 fWAR is tied with Matt Chapman for the highest in baseball. Yes, it’s early. That doesn’t change the fact Didi has been awesome thus far.

Gregorius, who turned 28 in February, has become a heart and soul Yankee in his three seasons plus 12 games in pinstripes. Remember how poorly things went early in 2015? Fans were chanted “Der-Ek Je-Ter!” after Didi botched some plays during the first homestand. It was bad. Now it’s impossible to imagine this new era of Yankees baseball without him. His trade was the first significant move as part of the youth movement. It really was.

The Yankees have Gregorius through next season as an arbitration-eligible player. What happens after that? No one really knows. Over the weekend Didi told Randy Miller he is willing to discuss an extension at any time, but the Yankees have yet to approach him about a deal. From Miller:

“I have no offer,” Gregorius said. “Nothing. No talks. I’m just playing the game. If they want to offer me a contract, they’ll offer me a contract. But they haven’t told me anything. All I worry about right now is my job.”

On one hand, this isn’t surprising. The Yankees have been sticklers with long-term extensions in recent years. The last two players they signed to extensions before free agency were Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano. Granted, the Yankees didn’t have many young players worth signing to long-term deals, but still, they haven’t been as aggressive locking up their young players as many other teams.

On the other hand, this is a new era of Yankees baseball, one featuring lots of young talent, and that young talent is going to get expensive before you know it. Luis Severino will be arbitration eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two after the season. Gary Sanchez and especially Aaron Judge are going to clean up in arbitration. I’d be smart of the Yankees to do whatever they can to keep this core intact as long as possible. Some thoughts on a potential Didi deal.

The Yankees had approximately $13.5M in payroll space under the $197M luxury tax threshold when I ran the numbers two weeks ago, but it’s less now because injuries have necessitated call-ups, and every call-up counts against the luxury tax payroll. Whatever the number is (closer to $12.5M now), it still leaves lots of room under the threshold for in-season additions, and I don’t think the Yankees want to take a bite out of that by extending Gregorius. The time to extend Didi was before Opening Day. Well, the time to extend him was a year or two ago, but you know what I mean.

2. A discount is probably off the table. Historically, when a player signs an extension the offseason before free agency, he gets free agent dollars. Some recent examples:

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies: Five years, $94M.

Danny Duffy, Royals: Five years, $65M.

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: Seven years, $175M.

Blackmon, Duffy, and Strasburg were all a year away from free agency and yet they signed extensions on par with what they would’ve received as free agents. I think there’s a chance Blackmon’s extension is worth more than he would’ve received as a free agent, but I digress.

Point is, when a player signs a long-term extension the year before free agency, he gets a contract on par with what he could’ve expected to receive in free agency. That’s where Gregorius will be after this season, so the possibility of a discount is probably out the window. Then again, the free agent market was wonky this winter, and maybe that throws a wrench into things. Historically though, a year before free agency equals a free agency caliber contract.

3. So what’s a fair offer? Here’s a fun question: Who’s the last above-average shortstop to hit free agency? Not even a star shortstop. Just an above-average shortstop. I guess it’s Hanley Ramirez, but everyone knew he wouldn’t stick there long-term. In fact, the Red Sox moved him to left field (lol) immediately. I think you have to go back to Jose Reyes during the 2011-12 offseason for the last above-average no doubt about it shortstop to hit free agency.

Above-average shortstops rarely hit fee agency because they’re incredibly hard to find, and when teams do find one, they lock him up. The Giants signed Brandon Crawford long-term. The Mariners signed Jean Segura long-term. Andrelton Simmons got a big deal early. Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor figure to get theirs before long too. Manny Machado is the notable exception, but he was a third baseman prior to this year.

Anyway, because so few shortstops (or quality middle infielders in general) hit free agency, we don’t have any good contract benchmarks for Gregorius, who figures to demand free agent dollars this coming offseason. Is it possible Gregorius is a $100M player on the open market? I never really considered the possibility, but he might be! Reyes got six years and $106M at age 28, though that was six years ago, and he had more hardware (All-Star Games, MVP votes, etc.) when he became a free agent than Didi does now.

Segura received a five-year deal worth $70M last year, two years before he was due to become a free agent. Does that put Gregorius in the five years and $80M to $90M range after the season? That’s Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, and Dexter Fowler money. Those guys are all outfielders, which complicates things, obviously. They are all center fielders though, up-the-middle players like Gregorius. Maybe that’s the template. Five years and $80M-ish? Feels like that would be a good deal for the Yankees to me, which means it’s probably low.

For what it’s worth, Didi told Miller he’s not looking for top dollar — “It’s not about money for me. It’s about the love of the game and what I do for my teammates,” he said — and hey, maybe he means it. That just struck me as one of those things a player would say because it sounds good, not necessarily because he means it. I’m not saying that’s bad! That’s what I’d do. Give the good sound bite while secretly plotting how to get the most money possible behind the scenes. Either way, finding common ground with Gregorius may be a bit of a challenge.

4. What if they don’t extend him? I mean, this is always a possibility, right? Play this year and next year out, see where things stand when Gregorius hits free agency, and decide what to do. And who knows, maybe the right decision is letting him walk. Didi will be 30 in his first post-free agency contract year and the Yankees have an elite shortstop prospect coming in Gleyber Torres. Replacing Gregorius with Gleyber may be the natural order of things.

Not extending Gregorius does two things. One, it mitigates risk for the Yankees. Should Didi’s performance slip or he suffer a serious injury, they wouldn’t be locked into a long-term deal. And two, it opens up the possibility that another team will swoop in with a huge offer when he does hit free agency, similar to the Mariners and Cano. Again, above-average shortstops don’t hit the open market often. Some general manager could have a Jack Zduriencik moment. Not extending Gregorius is a definitely possibility though. The Yankees might just let it ride these next two years, and see where they’re at come the 2019-20 offseason.

* * *

Personally, I am pro-extension for Didi, though I definitely think there is a case to be made for waiting. Gregorius is awesome right now. Will he still be awesome when he’s due to become a free agent? I hope so. But he might not be, and when you have a kid like Torres in the pipeline, there’s an argument to made for waiting. I just think quality players (and quality people!) are worth keeping around. There’s room for Didi and Gleyber on the roster.

For now, the Yankees have yet to discuss an extension with Gregorius, and since the season has started and any deal will change the luxury tax payroll situation, I can’t imagine they’ll talk about a deal anytime soon. It’ll have to happen after the season, if it happens at all. This isn’t an urgent matter, but signing Didi long-term is one of those things that, if the Yankees want to do, they really should’ve done it already. Now things aren’t quite as straightforward.

Last week Aaron Judge created some headlines when he told Manny Machado he would look good in pinstripes prior to a game against the Orioles. That is technically against the rules, so MLB told Brian Cashman to tell Judge to knock it off. Stuff like that happens all the time though. Judge’s mistake was telling the media.

Afterwards Machado said the whole thing was “blown out of proportion,” which of course it was. Here’s what else Machado told the Associated Press:

“Everyone always jokes around about a lot of things, and things that we say on the field usually stay on the field,” Machado said after Baltimore’s game with the New York Mets on Friday.

“I’ve told a lot of people they’d look good in black and orange as well, trying to get guys over here,” Machado said. “It’s just part of the game. You want to put the best team out there on your field and if I’m a part of this team, I want to bring the best guys over here as much as I can. I want to get a ring as well.”

Machado will become a free agent after the season and the Yankees are widely expected to pursue him, though there is still an entire season to be played between now and then, and lots can (and will) change. Make no mistake though, the club’s expected pursuit of Machado will be a season-long storyline. I have a few early questions about Machado and the Yankees.

1. Will Machado insist on playing shortstop? This season the Orioles are going to play Machado at shortstop, his preferred position, presumably because they’re trying to make him happy before attempting to re-sign him. He came up as a shortstop and he has played there at the MLB level — Machado played 45 games at short when J.J. Hardy was hurt in 2016 — and chances are he’ll handle it just fine. Machado’s a great athlete and a great defender.

The Yankees already have a pretty good shortstop in Didi Gregorius, however, and if things go according to plan this season, they’ll have three legitimate big league caliber shortstops in the organization at this time next year (Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade). Things (probably) won’t go according to plan though, and besides, Gregorius will be a free agent following next season. The shortstop position is open beyond 2019.

Forgetting about Torres and Wade for a second — they’re prospects until proven otherwise — signing Machado would necessitate one of three things. One, moving Machado back to third. Two, moving Gregorius to another position to accommodate Machado. Or three, trading Gregorius to accommodate Machado. Ideally the Yankees would keep Didi and add Machado. They’re both awesome! It might not be possible though.

2. What if the Yankees don’t need a third baseman? This is the other thing. The Yankees have two pretty promising — and young! — third basemen in Brandon Drury and Miguel Andujar. Andujar is a top 100 prospect now and clearly the Yankees like Drury, who is only 25. He’s not even three full months older than Greg Bird. The Yankees sure seem to think Drury has lots more to offer than what he’s shown in his MLB career to date.

It is entirely possible the Yankees will go into next offseason with a quality shortstop (Gregorius) and a quality third baseman (Drury or Andujar). That would be the ideal scenario as far as I’m concerned. And, if that happens, where does it leave Machado? Maybe the Yankees will decide to sign Machado anyway because he’s so damn good and he’ll be only 26 when he hits the open market. That’s kinda what happened with Giancarlo Stanton, right? They already had a great outfield, but they added Stanton anyway, because he’s really good.

(Presswire)

3. They’re going to go over the luxury tax threshold, right? To sign Machado, the Yankees will have to go over the luxury tax threshold at some point. If not next season, then soon thereafter, once Judge and Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino start making real money through arbitration. The luxury tax threshold does increase in the future years, but not by much. The threshold tops out at $210M in 2021, the final year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Not a big increase from $197M this year.

I am a luxury tax plan skeptic. The Yankees are going to get under the threshold this year to reset their tax rate, I have no doubts about that, but I am not sold on them exceeding the luxury tax in future. Or at least I don’t expect them to blow by the threshold and rack up large luxury tax bills again. A few million to get that final piece at the trade deadline? Yeah, sure. I’m not sure Hal Steinbrenner will okay anything more. He’s been adamant about not needing a $200M payroll to win a championship and I believe him.

So, the Yankees will either have to go over the threshold to sign Machado — go over by a lot too once Judge and Sanchez and those guys hit arbitration — or they’ll have to shed money to make Machado fit the payroll. Hey, maybe Stanton will opt out of his contract in three years and make the luxury tax situation easy. The Yankees couldn’t bank on that though. Signing Machado without running a payroll well over the threshold may not be possible.

4. Wouldn’t it be better to spend money on pitching? Very possible. Too early to say, but very possible. The Yankees have offense to spare — Andujar, Torres, and either Wade or Neil Walker won’t have a lineup spot come Opening Day — and a pitching rich farm system, though pitching depth has a way of disappearing quickly. There are always quality bats to be bought in free agency. Quality arms? They’re harder to come by.

Because of that, the Yankees may be more inclined to spend their available payroll dollars on pitching help rather than another bat next winter, especially since the offense doesn’t appear to be lacking. Dallas Keuchel and, assuming he opts out, Clayton Kershaw will be free agents next year. Cole Hamels is another potential option. Looking at the roster, it is not crazy to think the Yankees will need rotation help more than another infielder come next season, even with all the arms in the farm system. Another starter may be the proverbial missing piece.

* * *

Judge was doing nothing more than joking around with Machado. A real recruiting pitch would’ve taken place behind closed doors. The fact remains Machado is scheduled to become a free agent after the season, and it is widely expected the Yankees will pursue him once they get under the luxury tax threshold this year. They definitely have the money to sign Machado. Will they spend it? Will they even need another infielder? Those are questions that will be answered over the next eight months or so. Right now, signing Machado doesn’t seem so cut and dried to me.

Opening Day is only two weeks and three days away now, and the final few notable free agents are starting to land contracts. Over the weekend Mike Moustakas (one year, $6.5M), Lance Lynn (one year, $12M), and Jake Arrieta (three years, $75M) all agreed to deals that are undoubtedly smaller than they hoped coming into the offseason. It was a tough winter for free agents.

The Yankees signed only one free agent to a guaranteed Major League contract this offseason (CC Sabathia) but they were connected to a bunch. Moustakas, Lynn, Yu Darvish, Neil Walker, Alex Cobb … the Yankees seem to check in on everyone at some point. They just didn’t actually sign anyone aside from Sabathia, even with $22M in payroll space remaining under the $197M luxury tax threshold. That’s a pretty nice chunk of change.

The Yankees are reportedly planning to set aside $10M of that $22M for midseason additions, though the way things are going right now, they could end up taking all $22M into the season. There simply aren’t enough quality free agents still available. The way I see it, there are only three free agents worth a guaranteed contract still on the market:

Alex Cobb
Greg Holland
Neil Walker

Yeah, the Yankees could throw a million bucks or two at someone like R.A. Dickey or Trevor Cahill, but those guys don’t move the needle much, if at all. Cobb, Holland, and Walker are potential impact players and they would chew up a sizeable chunk of that $22M in payroll space, should the Yankees reel one of them in. A few thoughts on this.

1. Holland doesn’t make any sense for the Yankees. Holland had a 3.61 ERA (3.72 FIP) last year — it was a 6.38 ERA (4.99 FIP) in the second half — in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll be better this year as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction. He still might only be the Yankees’ seventh best reliever though. Giving precious luxury tax payroll dollars — not to mention forfeiting two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money — to another reliever with his bullpen doesn’t make sense to me. Not the best use of limited resources.

2. Walker is still kinda sorta maybe a fit. The Yankees reportedly discussed a deal with Walker before the Brandon Drury trade, and they could still bring him in to play second base. Tyler Wade is the presumed starter at the position right now, and while I am a pro-Wade guy, the safe bet is Walker being the more productive player in 2018. The Yankees could throw him a few million bucks, use Wade as a super utility guy, and enjoy the depth. Unlikely? Yes. Possible? Yeah, sure. If the Yankees are really eager to spend some of that $22M, Walker remains a possibility.

3. Okay, so why would Cobb come to New York? Clearly, Cobb is the Yankees’ best option among the remaining free agents. They’ve been looking for a starter all winter and he is now by far the best available starter. Lynn set the market for Cobb, not Arrieta. He’s looking at a one-year contract in the $12M range. Maybe he can secure multiple years now that supply and demand is working in his favor, but it seems unlikely.

Aaron Boone named Jordan Montgomery his fifth starter a few days ago but he left some wiggle room there — “I viewed it as he was a front-runner for that spot … When I look at him I look at him as one of our starters,” said Boone to George King — and besides, plans can change. Signing Cobb and stashing Montgomery in Triple-A is a perfectly reasonable plan to me. The more pitching depth, the better.

The question isn’t whether Cobb is a fit for the Yankees. It’s whether the Yankees are a fit for Cobb. If he ends up taking a one-year contract, why would he come to Yankee Stadium and try to build value going into free agency next winter? Yankees Stadium is not a pitcher friendly. It’s not impossible — Hiroki Kuroda joined the Yankees on a one-year deal back in the day — it just seems like Cobb would have other options that better suit him.

The Yankees could, of course, blow him away with an offer and make the Yankee Stadium thing moot. Because payroll dollars this season are finite, any “blow you away” offer would presumably be a multi-year deal. Eh. Are the Yankees really going to wait all this time to get Cobb at the discount only to give him multiple years? Seems to defeat the purpose. In that case they could’ve signed him weeks ago to ensure he had a normal Spring Training.

4. What about in-season additions? Luxury tax hits are pro-rated when you acquire a player during the season, so that $22M equals a lot of wiggle room come the trade deadline. Right now the Yankees can take on $22M in contracts and stay under the luxury. At the halfway point of the season, they could add $44M in contracts because the pro-rated tax hit would be $22M. That is the overly simplified math, but that’s the idea.

Baseball uses a 186-day calendar now, so that $22M works out to $118,279 per day, basically. On Opening Day, the Yankees would be able to add $22M in contracts and still stay under the luxury tax threshold. On the second day of the season, it would be $22,118,279. On the third day it would be $22,236,558. On the fourth day it would be $22,354,837. So on and so forth. That adds up quickly. The $22M in luxury tax space would allow the Yankees to take on significant salary at the trade deadline (Cole Hamels? Jeff Samardzija? Danny Duffy?).

* * *

At this point, the Yankees are running out of places to spend their money in free agency. Signing Holland seems like it would be spending money for the sake of spending money. Walker at least makes some sense for the roster. Cobb makes the most sense of all, and he might try to avoid Yankee Stadium if at all possible. (My guess is he winds up with the Brewers or Mariners.) There aren’t any other free agents out there worth committing real dollars too at this point.

We’ve all been waiting (and waiting) for the Yankees to spend some of their remaining luxury tax payroll dollars, but it hasn’t happened yet, and with each passing day it seems less and less likely to happen. They very well might take all that luxury tax space into the season to set themselves up for a splash at the deadline, and hey, that’s great. The more salary you take on in a trade the less you have to give up in prospects, in theory. Right now, if the Yankees don’t sign Cobb, there doesn’t seem to be anyone else worth signing. Bank that money for the trade deadline.

Prior to making the Brandon Drury trade, the Yankees were discussing a deal with free agent infielder Neil Walker, reports BillyWitz. Walker, who is currently participating in MLBPA’s spring camp for free agents, said he wanted a multi-year contract and was “certainly willing” to play first and third bases in addition to his usual second base.

“I thought that was a really good fit, especially playing in New York with the Mets for the time that I did, understanding what you’re getting into when you’re getting into a New York market with the media and so forth,” said Walker to Witz. “We don’t know if it was a money thing, but we thought we were fairly close until they made the trade. Whatever it was, they decided to hang on to money for midseason and felt like making a trade was more valuable.”

The 32-year-old Walker hit .265/.362/.439 (114 wRC+) with 14 homers in 448 plate appearances for the Mets and Brewers last season. He’s been a +2 fWAR player in each of the last eight seasons, yet he still can’t get a job. Nick Cafardo says the Royals offered Walker a minor league deal, which is ridiculous. I’m not saying he deserves a long-term, big money contract. But like half the league could use this guy.

Anyway, Walker was my top infield choice because he’s a switch-hitter, he has a history of getting on base, and you could stick him at second base or at the corner infield spots. And you know what? The Yankees could still sign him! Drury is a pre-arbitration-eligible player making something close to the league minimum, meaning whatever money the Yankees were willing to give Walker is still available. Plus second base is still open.

The Yankees continue their Grapefruit League season this afternoon with a road game against the Pirates, but, sadly, it will not be televised. Tomorrow’s game will be televised, however, so that’s cool. Anyway, here are some links to check out on the first weekend with baseball in 2018.

Yankees still looking for pitching

Not surprisingly, Brian Cashman confirmed earlier this week that the Yankees remain in the market for pitching. They addressed their infield with the Brandon Drury trade — they did that without spending any finite luxury tax plan dollars — so the only item left on the offseason shopping list is pitching depth. Here’s what Cashman said, via Bryan Hoch:

“We are trying to attack places that are potential weaknesses or are weaknesses,” Cashman said. “I think our pitching side is pretty strong and obviously we want it to stay healthy, but we will evaluate the pitching available regardless. It’s been our stated goal to add a starter. There’s a reason we haven’t done it and it isn’t because we don’t have an interest.”

The Yankees still have $22M to spend under the luxury tax threshold, which is a nice chunk of change even when you remove the $10M they’re said to be setting aside for midseason additions. I feel like, with each passing day, it is more and more likely the Yankees will jump in to sign either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. It would cost two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money to sign either guy, but at some point it’ll make sense to jump in. Each day we’re inching closer to that point.

While Martinez’s first assignment will depend on several factors, his talent level is commensurate with a player in high Class A or Double-A. At around 5-foot-10, 180 pounds, Martinez has a good combination of power and speed from the left side. He batted .333/.469/.498 in 264 plate appearances during his final season in Cuba, with 52 walks, 30 strikeouts and 24 stolen bases in 29 attempts.

The Yankees have spent most of their $3.5M in leftover Shohei Ohtani money — most of that went to Raimfer Salinas and Antonio Cabello — and Badler says it’s possible the 21-year-old Martinez will wait until the 2018-19 international signing period begins on July 2nd to sign. The Rangers, for what it’s worth, traded for some international bonus money earlier this week, and Jesse Sanchez calls them the favorites to sign Martinez. Sounds like they’re going to make a run at him during the current signing period, while the Yankees (and Marlins) are cash-strapped.

Promotions for Giese, Daley

The Yankees have promoted assistant pro scouting director Dan Giese to pro scouting director, reports BrendanKuty. Kevin Reese, the former pro scouting director, was promoted to senior director of player development back in November. He now oversees the farm system. Also, Matt Daley was promoted to assistant pro scouting director to replace Giese. Both Giese and Daley pitched briefly for the Yankees before joining the team as scouts. They’ve both gradually worked their way up the ladder.

A few weeks ago the Yankees hired former Marlins executive Marc DelPiano for a pro scouting role, and I thought maybe he’d replace Reese, but nope. It’s Giese. The Yankees tend to promote from within for front office jobs and that is exactly what happened here. I’m guessing DelPiano is fairly high up in the pro scouting chain of command given his resume though. The pro scouting department, which didn’t even exist until 2005, is tasked with keeping tabs on players in MLB and the minors. The department helped dig up Didi Gregorius and Chad Green, among many others.

Spring Training officially began over a week ago, and, depending upon your baseball news outlet of choice, somewhere between “a lot of” and “way too many” quality free agent pitchers remain on the market. The Yankees have, of course, been linked to all of them in one way or another, and the notion that Brian Cashman could and/or should don his ninja apparel to swoop in and sign one to a bargain deal has only increased with time. The fact that the team has made no secret of its hope to add starting pitching even as players report to camp only fans the flame.

Jake Arrieta is the best starting pitcher on the market nowadays, and there is no shortage of discussion about what it would take for him to end up in pinstripes. Talking heads have suggested a deal akin to what the Red Sox gave J.D. Martinez – 5-years, $110 MM, with opt outs after 2019 and 2020 – and our own Mike Axisa suggested 3-years and $75 MM, with opt outs after each season; this includes signing Arrieta mid-season, but that’s not important for the purpose of this post. While both options sound good for a pitcher with Arrieta’s track record (and ignoring any luxury tax implications), I would not be comfortable giving the soon-to-be 32-year-old a multiyear deal with player options.

Why, you ask? I think Arrieta is one of the big free agent landmines of this class.

There is no denying that Arrieta has been brilliant on the whole for the Cubs, and that his post-Orioles career is another reason to make fun of that particular organization’s inability to develop pitching. And there’s no denying that he was quite good in 2017, despite a late season hamstring injury. There are simply too many red flags for me to overlook when considering locking Arrieta in for several years. To begin, take a look at his last three years, beginning with his Cy Young-winning 2015:

Arrieta’s strikeout rate has slipped significantly, his walk rate went from elite to right around league-average, his groundball rate slumped from among the best in the majors to league-average, and his home run rate went from elite to average to below-average. As a result of this, Arrieta was a roughly average starter last year, posting 1.9 bWAR and 2.4 fWAR. And it wasn’t just the production, either. Here’s his velocity over the last three years:

Arrieta lost between 0.5 MPH and 1.0 MPH on his offerings between 2015 and 2016, which is not necessarily disconcerting. However, losing between 1.5 MPH and 2.0 MPH across the board is scary. And that dip in velocity can’t be explained away by his injury, either, as Arrieta’s hamstring strain happened in August. Now, to be fair, his velocity did tick up right after the All-Star break – but it was still a MPH off of 2016’s norm. That’s less than ideal – as is being hit harder and harder over time:

(FanGraphs)

It’s worth noting that players are simply hitting the ball harder now, and Arrieta is still allowing less hard contact than the average pitcher. Nevertheless, this is another example of him heading from elite towards average over the last year or so, and that’s not what you want to see with a potential big-money signing – particularly one that will be 32 on Opening Day.

None of this is to suggest that Arrieta will be bad in 2018, or even 2019 or 2020. Rather, I just don’t see him continuing to be a top of the rotation starter, and that is what he is hoping to be paid as (even in this depressed market). What we have here is a pitcher in his 30s who’s striking out fewer batters, losing velocity, giving up more fly balls, and giving up harder hit balls in general, and the discussion is giving him a multiyear deal … and I feel that it is far riskier than has been let on.

Would I give him a fair bit of the Yankees remaining funds to join the rotation on a one-year pillow contract? Definitely. Would I blow up the luxury tax plan for this year for said pillow contract? Yes, I think so. But I wouldn’t want to be tied to him for multiple seasons – and that’s probably what it’s going to take.