King Yao: author of Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting and Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker

Monday, January 28, 2008

Some Super Bowl Props at the Hilton

I was at the Hilton on Tuesday night to see their props open. Here's three that I bet that night:

Different number of Giants to score Under 3 +140This doesn't seem like a great bet to most people, but I think there is nice value here. The bad thing about the under is that just one TD means two different Giants have scored. But the good thing about it is that it takes 3 TDs by the Giants for me to have a chance of losing...and even then, I may still push. It really is tough to put it into words because all the calculations is in the simulations. Sometimes things just can't be explained clearly in words, its all in the numbers.

Shortest TD is under 1.5 yards -140I wrote about the shortest TD prop in my book, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting. Although -140 is not cheap, it still has value. One reason I chose that prop to write about is that I was a bit comfortable that I might still find value in that prop in upcoming years. I can see a person who hasn't cranked out the math (or doesn't understand the math), thinking how likely is a 1-yard TD? Not very likely, I'm getting plus-money on the over, let's do it.

Patriots score before they punt -150I think this has good value too, I think it is worth -180. That would be the case for most teams that are such a big favorite in a game with such a large total. But it is especially more so for the Patriots since they have the (correct) idea that punting is overrated. They often go for it on fourth down in unconventional spots. That means even if they get stopped, it is more likely that they were stopped on fourth down compared to other teams. Thus slightly more likely they score before they punt compared to other teams that are expected to score 33 points.

I'll write up a few more between now and the Super Bowl. On Wednesday, I'll be one of the many guests on Jon in Oakland's conference call. You can get more information on hist site:http://www.sportsconferencecall.com/