The first Rasmussen poll of the Arkansas Senate race has freshman congressman Tom Cotton leading incumbent senator Mark Pryor by five points, 45 to 40.

Pryor, who faced no opposition when he last ran in 2008, is this year considered perhaps the most vulnerable Democrat in the nation. President Obama, who lost the state to Mitt Romney by over 23 points, remains deeply unpopular there. Across the country, the rocky rollout of Obamacare has imperiled the political futures of several Democrats, among them Pryor, North Carolina’s Kay Hagan, Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, and Alaska’s Mark Begich.

Political forecasters like the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato say the race leans in the Republican direction.