Yulia graduated from European University of Management and Business majoring in Finance and Crediting (1999).

She has a 14-year experience in analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian and CIS ag markets, holds numerous publications in Ukrainian and foreign journals.

Analyst's publications:

Phosphatide concentrate exports from Ukraine growing at a record pace

14.08.2018

Ukrainian exports of phosphatide concentrates increase along with their production. It grew almost nine times from 2008 to 2017. According to UkrAgroConsult forecasts, a new record volume of phosphatide concentrate will be supplied to foreign markets in 2018.

Black Sea region will not lose ground in the vegoils market in the new season 2018/19

08.05.2018

As UkrAgroConsult earlier mentioned, sunflower oil is undervalued in the world market. We compared the production increases in different vegoils with their price gains and obtained interesting results. The greatest production increase took place in the segment of palm oil and the least one was registered in sunflower oil. However, the spread between sunflower and palm oils decreased significantly during last several seasons.

Ukraine. Concerns about a sharp decrease in sunflower plantings are not justified

11.07.2017

Sunflower planting is over in Ukraine and the data obtained confirm UkrAgroConsult’s opinion that this crop will still be given special attention. As a reminder, sunflower became the number one in the fields in 2016/17 season, having replaced wheat there.

Ukraine. Rapeseed crushing fell to the 2013/14 level

16.05.2017

As expected, the current 2016/17 season did not feature significant crushing volumes. Due to a crop slump around the world, including Europe and Ukraine, rapeseed was in enormous demand from exporters, who could constantly raise export prices in view of growing global quotations.

Ukraine. Sunoil production unlikely to plummet in 2017/18

10.05.2017

According to official forecasts, sunflower plantings will total just 5.4 Ml ha in 2017, i.e. they are expected to shrink by more than 700 Th ha. UkrAgroConsult also believes that sunflower planted area for the 2017 crop will decrease, but the announced 5.4 Ml ha forecast is much underestimated. In our opinion, the drop in sunflower plantings, if any, will be at most 200-300 Th ha.

EU becoming more dependent on Canada and Australia

11.01.2017

The downward trend in world production has been persisting for a third consecutive season. This will affect rapeseed inventories, which will close the season of 2016/17 at 5.5 MMT, i.e. at the lowest level since 2012/13 (4.8 MMT). Rapeseed stocks in the EU will show a particularly substantial drop. USDA forecasts them to hit a decade low at 914 KMT.

Ukraine. Crop-2017: acreage allocation outlook

04.01.2017

Rapeseed. The 2016 drop in rapeseed production both in Ukraine (down 0.6 MMT) and the world (down 1.3 MMT) triggered a rise in this commodity’s price. Consequently, rapeseed became more expensive than sunseed for the first time in many years. The upward trend featured the first half of this season 2016/17 and high price secured good margin of rapeseed growing. The latter was the main driver of rape acreage expansion. According to the State Statistics Service, winter rape for the 2017 harvest was sown on an area of 899 Th ha (up 244 Th ha or 37% year-on-year). This was the first increase in four years.

It is an open secret that India is the key destination market for Ukrainian sunseed oil. 1.4 MMT of this commodity was shipped to the country from Ukraine in 2015/16. That volume represented 31.6% of Ukraine’s total sunseed oil exports. However, nobody could have imagined that India would take interest in Ukrainian sunseed meal. The traditional markets for Ukrainian sunseed meal are CIS and European countries (absorbed some 68% of exports).

How much winter rapeseed Ukraine will lose due to early cooling?

22.11.2016

The weather conditions were quite favorable for planting 2017-crop winter rapeseed, more than 85% of its area was seeded within the optimum time. Consequently, out of the planted 844 Th ha, winter rape has emerged on 793 Th ha (94.7%) by November 17, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Ukraine. Sunflower oil is underestimated on the world market

13.09.2016

In the new 2016/17 MY due to the unparalleled sunflower crop -14 MMT (UkrAgroConsult`s forecast), Ukraine will be able to reach the record volume of sunflower oil production and exports – 5.65 MMT and 5.17 MMT, respectively.

Ukraine. Rapeseed profit margin and prices gladden. For how long?

30.08.2016

Rapeseed harvesting is complete in Ukraine. According to UkrAgroConsult estimates, rapeseed production is likely to be 30% lower than last year. Reduction of harvesting area due to significant winter rapeseed losses (234 Th ha) was the main reason for production decline. Nevertheless, rapeseed average yields appeared to be higher than expected and even higher than last year.

Sunflower planted area still underestimated in Ukraine

09.08.2016

The State Statistics Committee of Ukraine greatly surprised or even shocked the market by publishing the final data on oilseeds planted area, particularly that of sunflower - 5.9 Mln ha. It’s not that the market did not expect such a large sunflower acreage in 2016, but on the contrary. Back in December 2015 UkrAgroConsult estimated that sunflower planted area in Ukraine would exceed 6 Mln ha.

Heat in Ukraine. Will sunseed production decline?

19.07.2016

As we approach a new sunseed season, market attention is focused on production estimates in 2016. In particular, USDA believes that sunflower seed harvest in Ukraine will reach 13 MMT. Other experts concern about sunflower plants conditions because of heat and take a dim view of such a high production. They estimate sunseed crop to reach 12.5-12.7 MMT.

Ukraine exported record high sunoil volume before price collapse

12.07.2016

In June 2016 sunflower oil shipments to foreign markets were the highest ever for this month. But there was another record set in this season – during 10 months of the current marketing year Ukraine exported 3872 KMT of sunflower oil. The same volume was supplied to foreign markets during the whole 2014/15 season.

Prohibition of GM soy and corn in Russia: benefit or harm?

05.07.2016

After long discussions, which lasted for several years, Russia has adopted a law, which prohibits cultivation and breeding of GM plants and animals. Only carrying out of expert examinations and research work is an exception.

Ukraine gets back into the world sunflower seed market

22.06.2016

Sunflower sowing is almost complete in Ukraine. By June 16, sunflower planted area had exceeded 5.5 Mln ha. We should note that this year's official estimate of sunflower acreage in Ukraine is the highest ever. Meanwhile, this once again confirms UkrAgroConsult's estimate of sunflower planted area in 2016, which seemed impossibly ambitious in December 2015.

Ukraine may compete with Russia on linseed market

On May 31, 2016 a draft bill #4737 on cancellation of 10% linseed and camelina export tax was registered in Verkhovna Rada. We would like to note that such a bill was last time submitted to Verkhovna Rada in 2013. However, this initiative, as well as many others related to export duties abolition, was not supported.

Ukrainian mayonnaise market hit the bottom

07.06.2016

Production decrease trend has been observed in Ukrainian mayonnaise market for several consecutive years. In the 2014/15 season mayonnaise production reached 136 KMT. This figure declined by 12% over the past two seasons. UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukrainian enterprises will produce 120 KMT of mayonnaise in the 2015/16 season, and it will be the lowest result since marketing year 2003/04.

Ukraine. Soybean loses out to sunflower

31.05.2016

Soybean had been the most promising agricultural crop in Ukrainian market before 2016. Soybean planted areas and production set new records, and projections for next seasons were also quite optimistic.

Traditionally in spring crushers wonder whether there are enough raw materials until the end of the season, and whether sunflower seed production estimates are correct. Certainly, plants’ owners have a reason to worry, as total crushing capacity has already exceeded 15 MMT in Ukraine, while sunseed production was 11.5 MMT in 2015. In turn, crushing enterprises may suspend their work before its due time, because of raw materials deficit.

Ukraine. UkrAgroConsult increases oilseeds production estimate for next season

17.05.2016

Due to early resumption of vegetation and quite fast increase in active warmth at the beginning of spring period, maturation stages of winter crops development exceed the normal pace. Mostly warm weather and sufficient moisture stocks are also favorable for winter rapeseed. Winter rapeseed is at the stage of pod formation – seed formation. Nearly 60% of sowings are in good and satisfactory conditions.

China refuses to purchase Ukrainian high oleic sunflower oil?

Ukraine. Record high corn and sunflower sowing rate - casual event or new trend?

04.05.2016

Profit margin is currently the main factor, which determines grain crops and oilseeds planted area. Corn is being seeded at a historically record pace. It should be mentioned that a survey of farmers conducted earlier showed that the majority of agrarians were going to leave corn planted area at the last year's level, or even reduce it. However, the weather is favorable, prices increased in the decision-making period, and seeding rates are unprecedentedly high, confidently moving towards the official forecast.

Ukrainian margarine market. Is there any chance for recovery?

18.04.2016

Margarine production continues to decrease in Ukraine. In 2015 margarine production reached only 212 KMT, which was much lower than in 2014 (271 KMT). During 2011-2015 both exports and imports of margarine products decreased. Imports dropped from 43 KMT to 18.3 KMT, while exports – from 72 KMT to 31.3 KMT, i.e. imports and exports dropped by nearly 57%.

Belarus. 2016 rapeseed production will hit low since 2007

12.04.2016

According to the final data, Belarus harvested only 382 KMT of rapeseed in 2015 compared with 730 KMT in 2014. The considerable reduction of rapeseed harvest (-48%) happened due to unfavorable weather for rapeseed cultivation. Rapeseed productivity decreased by 14%, and harvesting area – by 38%.

Ukraine. Oilseeds production estimates for season 2016/17, April 2016

05.04.2016

Last week the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine published its final data on 2015 harvest. According to official data, Ukraine produced 16.85 MMT of oilseeds, which was 4% higher than in 2014. Sunflower seed and soybean harvest increased by 10% and 1.3% respectively, while rapeseed production decreased by 21%.

Ukraine. Sunflower oil exports by all means

15.03.2016

The first half of oil crops season 2015/16 was not easy for crushing enterprises of Ukraine. The 26% devaluation of Ukrainian hryvnia provoked considerable increase of domestic prices for raw materials (sunflower seed).

What will Europe buy instead of Ukrainian rapeseed?

Sunflower ousts wheat from Ukrainian fields

23.02.2016

Over the last three months weather conditions have been neutral for winter crops in Ukraine. About 33% of all winter cereals and oilseeds (2.3 Ml ha) are currently weak and thinned. Nearly 1.7 Ml ha of wheat, 340 Th ha of barley and 200 Th ha of rapeseed are in risk zone. The weather is expected to be relatively favorable for winter crops in the coming month. It means that significant increase of winterkill is unlikely. This allows forecasting the planted area of spring crops in 2016, based on survived winter crops.

UkrAgroConsult announced first forecasts of oilseeds season 2016/17

16.02.2016

Rapeseed. The trend of rapeseed production decrease will continue in the 2016/17 season. Despite the reduction of production by 32%, we expect further increase of crushing inside the country by 1% owing to decrease of export shipments by 40%.

Ukraine. Phosphatide concentrate market attracts new players

19.01.2016

Sunflower phosphatide concentrate exports from Ukraine increased along with its production. Over the period of 2008-2015 the exports grew by almost 500%. In 2015 Ukraine exported record high volumes of phosphatide concentrate.

Ukraine. Farmers will give preference to sunflower in 2016

12.01.2016

Traditionally in spring Ukrainian farmers have to choose which crops to sow. When a few years ago soybean was the favorite crop for farmers (planted area increased by 20-30% annually), then in 2016 the preference will be given to sunflower, estimates UkrAgroConsult.

Ambitious plans of Ukraine are under threat

Ukrainian sunflower oil becomes number one in world market

01.12.2015

Search for sunflower seed for domestic processing has become a steady trend in Ukrainian market over the last few years. This season, in addition to the need of supplying the ever-growing processing capacity with raw materials (at least by 60%), there is another important factor – the need to provide the world market with sunflower oil. There are several reasons. Firstly, conflict between Turkey and Russia, which will trigger considerable growth of demand from Turkey for sunflower oil of "other origin".

UkrAgroConsult: First estimates of spring crop in 2016 are announced

24.11.2015

Reduction of winter crops planted area creates preconditions for increase in acreage of spring grain and oil crops. UkrAgroConsult forecasts that grain area will increase by 1.77 Ml ha, and oilseeds acreage – by 0.7 Ml ha compared to last season.

Ukraine. Will rains save harvest?

27.10.2015

This year agrometeorological conditions had a negative impact on agricultural crops. Summer drought, which was observed practically over the whole territory of Ukraine, not only cut the 2015 crop, but also created difficult conditions for sowing of winter crops, especially, winter rapeseed. Absence of rainfalls in August, September and early October caused insufficient sowing of winter rapeseed for 2016 crop.

UkrAgroConsult’s oilseed crop estimates

15.09.2015

In the 2015/16 season slight oilseed crop reduction is expected due to a 15% drop in rapeseed production. At present time, sunseed production prospects look very optimistic. According to UkrAgroConsult, sunseed production will reach 10.7-11 MMT.

Ukraine. Soybean supply and demand

Ukraine may run out of rapeseed in 2016

17.08.2015

This year extremely unfavorable weather conditions during soil preparation for sowing of winter rapeseed are observed in Ukraine, since longtime deficit of precipitation is noted throughout the territory of Ukraine (especially in July - August, when moisture resources for winter crops seeding are formed).

LPR and DPR moved thousands tons of Ukrainian sunseed to Russia

27.07.2015

The current season 2014/15 happened to be difficult with regard to sunseed. Back in October 2014, at the sunseed harvest time, all market players made attempts to calculate how much sunseed had gone to Russia. Different figures were announced then: 10 to 30% of the entire sunseed crop grown in the region. It is absolutely impossible to confirm or deny any figure because no official information has been published on the matter.

Starting prices for new crop rapeseed are record high

01.07.2015

The beginning of new 2015/16 season is remarkable for increasing prices for rapeseed in the world market due to shortfall in production in the major producing countries. In Europe rapeseed prices have been constantly growing for already 2 months.

Ukrainian companies losing profits on sunflower meal

22.06.2015

Sunflower meal production in Ukraine has been trending upward for 15 years now. It increased more than 4.5 times in this period. Gradually growing production and limited domestic sales of this product have turned Ukraine from a consumer into an exporter. Now the country exports about 80% of all the sunmeal it makes, being its main supplier to the world market.

World market oversaturated with GM-soybeans, “clean” product in fashion now

15.06.2015

A new trend is lately observed in the world market: rising demand for non-GM soybeans. This is particularly pronounced in Europe, which needs at least 5 MMT of non-GM soybeans a year. European growers themselves are not yet capable of meeting all the domestic demand for “clean” soybeans. As the fashion for non-GM soybeans catches on with an increasing number of customers, one can say with confidence that this will be a wide-spread feature with time and the demand for such soybeans will grow in arithmetical progression.

Rapeseed intrigue of season 2015/16: Traders against oil extraction plants

08.06.2015

No one doubts that Ukraine’s rapeseed crop will fall in the new season, but market participants’ opinions on the crop size have divided. Some of them predict a crop decline to 1.5 MMT, others to 2 MMT. UkrAgroConsult’s estimates are within their previous level of 1.9 MMT, or down some 300 KMT from 2014/15.

Has Ukraine enough sunseed until the end of the season?

18.03.2015

Against the background of a 9% sunseed crop drop in 2014, crushing of this oilseed lags behind the previous record season just by 1.5%, and many fear that the market will face a substantial feedstock deficit as soon as June.

Are investments in new plants justified when existing ones are on the brink of being stopped?

10.03.2015

Reports about the construction of new oilseed crushing plants increasingly often appear in the market lately. But this time, contrary to the previous events, it is planned to build crushers not for sunseed, since sunseed processing capacities have long exceeded 15 MMT a year. The matter concerns soybean crushing.

Change of Ukrainian soybean oil market leaders

16.02.2015

Soybean oil production in Ukraine has been expanding quite rapidly in the recent years, up to 30-35% annually. Soybean crushers mushroom out, too. About 60 soybean oil producing companies operate in Ukraine now. However, more than 50% of output is on account of just three companies.

Sunseed export duty abolition: all the pros and contras

03.02.2015

Bill No. 1837 suggesting abolition of the 10% sunseed export duty was registered on January 26, 2015. The lawmakers have been hitting the Verkhovna Rada with such bills on an incredibly regular basis, but none of them has been approved yet.

Exporters may leave crushers without raw material

26.01.2015

The season 2014/15 featured an unprecedented soybean crop. UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukraine harvested more than 3.8 MMT of soybeans against 2.7 MMT in 2013/14. The bumper crop obtained was enough to fully provide both exporters and crushers with this feedstock. However, the season’s first months saw just a stunning pace of soybean exports.

Ukrainian refined sunoil conquering new markets

UkrAgroConsult predicts decline in oilseed crops in 2015

13.01.2015

UkrAgroConsult preliminarily forecasts Ukrainian oilseed plantings for 2015 to shrink to 8.2 Ml ha and the harvest to 15.6 MMT.

Rapeseed

The autumn agro-meteorological conditions were not very favorable for planting and initial growth of winter rape. Due to dry weather, early-sown rape failed to emerge in some fields and farmers had to reseed them. According to preliminary information, winter rape was planted on a total area of some 891 Th ha and emerged on 858 Th ha (96.3%).

Myth about unprofitability of rapeseed crushing in Ukraine put in question

Ukraine’s 2015 sunseed crop may be still lower

22.12.2014

The combination of numerous negative factors in the current 2014/15 season, which we’ll dwell on below, has affected farmer sentiment: growers preliminarily intend to decrease next year’s plantings of sunflower.

Sunoil prices will surely grow

Domestic soybean crushing in Ukraine: new highs again and again

13.11.2014

Domestic soybean crushing in the first month of the season was up 27% year-over-year. However, companies such as ZernoProduct and SlavTrade Agro left the list of major soybean crushers in September. Each of the oil pressing plants has a small soybean crushing capacity of 100 MT a day or 33 KMT a year. These companies are located in Donetsk region and it is unclear for now if they will be able to resume operation in the coming months.

Ukrainian soybean exports to increase 43%

12.11.2014

Soybean exports in September 2014 were up 197% year-over-year despite the absence of Russia, which was the main soybean buyer in September 2013 (a 77% share). Due to restrictions imposed by Russia on Ukrainian soybean and meal imports and because of a good soybean harvest, we’ll most likely not see this brotherly country on the 2014/15 list of major buyers of soybeans from Ukraine.

Booming development of Ukraine’s soybean market is in full swing

11.11.2014

The booming development of the soybean market continues in Ukraine. Perhaps, this is the only crop whose production increases some 100% a year. A pleasant fact is that this results not only from an expansion of plantings – very relevant to Ukraine’s agricultural production, but also from rising yields.

Ukrainian sunoil exports under the threat of a duty

UkrAgroConsult pointing out optimistic prospects for soybean growing in Ukraine in 2014

20.03.2014

The prospects for soybean growing in Ukraine look quite optimistic at the moment. We expect further expansion of planting for 2014. UkrAgroConsult forecasts planted acreage to increase to 1.6-1.75 Ml ha and average yield to 2 MT/ha. If weather conditions are favorable, 3.1-3.3 MMT of soybeans will be harvested this year (2.6 MMT in 2013), said UkrAgroConsult’s leading oilseeds market expert Yulia Garkavenko.

As a reminder, the UkrAgroConsult consultancy held a press conference entitled “Harvest-2014: winter crop conditions and spring sowing campaign” on March 20, 2014. On the threshold of a new season and in view of the difficult current political situation the leading market experts shared their harvest expectations and told about winter crop condition and planting progress.

UkrAgroConsult: spring rape plantings to fall to a decade low in 2014

20.03.2014

On the threshold of a new season and in view of the difficult current political situation, the UkrAgroConsult consultancy held a press conference on March 20, 2014 to elucidate events in Ukraine’s agricultural market. The leading market experts told about their harvest expectations, winter crop condition, and planting progress.

Survival of Ukrainian winter rape crops was satisfactory in December, January, and February. We estimate winter rape loss at 13 Th ha, or less than 2%. This is the lowest rate since 2008. Therefore this year’s spring rape plantings will be at a decade low of 27 Th ha (50 Th ha in 2013). We forecast the overall 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.2 MMT (2.35 MMT in 2013), UkrAgroConsult’s leading oilseeds market expert Yulia Garkavenko reports.

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