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Over the years I have authored and co-authored a number of books about technology, ranging from big, thick programming manuals to guides to building your own PC from a pile of parts.

Next-Generation Games Consoles Face A Tough Time

It seems likely that both MicrosoftMicrosoft and SonySony will have fresh games consoles on the market ready in time for the holiday spending extravaganza. But it is very probable that these devices – Microsoft’s is widely expected to be called the Xbox 720, while we know Sony’s will be the PlayStation 4 – will have a much tougher time penetrating the market than their predecessors did.

In fact, there are a number of factors working against the next generation of consoles, and here I’m going to take a look at a few of them.

Massive market base of older consoles

When the new consoles are released we will be in the situation where there will be tens of millions of the old consoles in the hands consumers, while the new console has to start at zero.

It is estimated that some 75 million Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 consoles have been sold, and while a high proportion of these will be broken or collecting dust, the failure rate still leaves a lot of them out there. This creates an incredible amount of inertia that’s hard to overcome.

Price

New consoles are notoriously pricey at release, with early adopters being squeezed as hard has possible. Prices are then cut slowly over time to keep sales buoyant. This again creates a lot of resistance at launch.

Tablets and smartphones

The next-generation games consoles aren’t just competing against older consoles and OCs for attention, but are also going to be facing completion from devices that didn’t exist back when the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 was released.

Smartphones and tablets are big, and they have three significant advantages over games consoles:

The iPhone and iPad in particular will put considerable pressure on any new console, as these devices have had a big had in shaping the mobile gaming market. But let’s not forget Android, which is also a very capable gaming platform.

Initial game drought

While there will be titles available at release for the new console, few people – other than hardcore fans – are likely to shell out a premium price for a new console just to play a small handful of games.

It takes a long time for a big base of games to develop, which means that it might be years before some gamers are tempted to make the switch.

Backward compatibility

Will gamer’s existing library of titles work on the new consoles? This has always been a thorny issue as far as consoles are concerned.

The Windows XP effect

You might be wondering what Windows XP has to do with games consoles. Windows XP was an operating system that reigned for five years before Windows Vista was released. During that time users developed a great deal of loyalty for the platform, and when Windows Vista was released people were reluctant to switch, claiming that the incumbent Windows XP was ‘good enough.’

The ‘good enough’ effect is something that plagues every company trying to release a new product. Consumers are reluctant – especially in a down economy – to upgrade needlessly. Consumers need extensive persuasion to upgrade, and this, combined with what is initially a drought of games, puts a damper on sales.

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