Merkley evens race vs. Smith, poll claims

A new survey suggests Democratic Senate candidate Jeff
Merkley has caught up with his more well-known rival,
incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

The new survey, by Rasmussen Reports, pegs Merkley at 43
percent with 41 percent for Smith. When voters who lean
toward one of the candidates are included, the two are tied
at 46 percent. This is the first time an independent poll
has not shown Smith in the lead this year.

Merkley's campaign trumpeted the news as evidence that
he is mounting a strong challenge and that Smith is losing
support among Oregon voters.

The Smith campaign dismissed the poll, saying it used a
flawed methodology. Rasmussen conducts its surveys using
recorded voices. Respondents answer by pressing keys on
their touch-tone phones. While automated polling firms have
had a decent track record in accurately predicting the
outcome of political races, many polling experts distrust
these surveys.

A month ago, Rasmussen said that Smith led Merkley, 47
percent to 38 percent. Since then, Rasmussen said
Smith's support among Democrats has dropped from 23
percent to 14 percent.

Merkley spokesman Matt Canter said the poll showed that
Smith's effort to appeal to independent and Democratic
voters in his advertising has largely flopped. Canter said
voters aren't buying the idea that Smith has a moderate
voting record.

Smith spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride said the poll contained
"questionable numbers from an often-dismissed
pollster." She declined to reveal what Smith's own
poll numbers say, but added: "We have always expected
this to be a competitive race but one we fully expect Gordon
Smith to win."

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 15 and
has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, plus or
minus.

The same poll also found that Democrat Barack Obama has a nine-point lead over Republican John McCain in Oregon in the presidential race. He leads 46 percent to 37 percent in the initial finding. When leaners are included, Obama is ahead, 49 percent to 40 percent....

Merkley evens race vs. Smith, poll claims

A new survey suggests Democratic Senate candidate Jeff
Merkley has caught up with his more well-known rival,
incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

The new survey, by Rasmussen Reports, pegs Merkley at 43
percent with 41 percent for Smith. When voters who lean
toward one of the candidates are included, the two are tied
at 46 percent. This is the first time an independent poll
has not shown Smith in the lead this year.

Merkley's campaign trumpeted the news as evidence that
he is mounting a strong challenge and that Smith is losing
support among Oregon voters.

The Smith campaign dismissed the poll, saying it used a
flawed methodology. Rasmussen conducts its surveys using
recorded voices. Respondents answer by pressing keys on
their touch-tone phones. While automated polling firms have
had a decent track record in accurately predicting the
outcome of political races, many polling experts distrust
these surveys.

A month ago, Rasmussen said that Smith led Merkley, 47
percent to 38 percent. Since then, Rasmussen said
Smith's support among Democrats has dropped from 23
percent to 14 percent.

Merkley spokesman Matt Canter said the poll showed that
Smith's effort to appeal to independent and Democratic
voters in his advertising has largely flopped. Canter said
voters aren't buying the idea that Smith has a moderate
voting record.

Smith spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride said the poll contained
"questionable numbers from an often-dismissed
pollster." She declined to reveal what Smith's own
poll numbers say, but added: "We have always expected
this to be a competitive race but one we fully expect Gordon
Smith to win."

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 15 and
has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, plus or
minus.

The same poll also found that Democrat Barack Obama has a nine-point lead over Republican John McCain in Oregon in the presidential race. He leads 46 percent to 37 percent in the initial finding. When leaners are included, Obama is ahead, 49 percent to 40 percent....