PC lead shrinks in Ontario

TORONTO March
26th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the
Forum Poll™ among 1225 Ontario voters, 4-in-10 will vote PC if the provincial
election were held today (40%), down slightly from last month (February 29 -
44%). In turn, 3-in-10 will vote Liberal (30%), and this is up slightly from
last month (27%). One quarter will vote NDP (24%), and this is comparable to results
last month (22%).Few will vote Green (5%) or for other parties (1%).

Slim PC majority seen

If these results are projected up to the
107 seat Provincial legislature, the PCs would capture a 3 seat majority of 57
seats, to 26 for the Liberals and 24 for the NDP.

Wynne’s favourables flat, Brown and Horwath slightly down

Premier Wynne has the approval of just one
fifth of voters (20%) and this is the same as last month. Her net favourable
score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -45, similar to -47 last
month. Patrick Brown has the approval of one quarter of voters (26%), down
slightly from last month (30%) and his net favourable score is a slightly
positive +4. As many as one half of voters don’t know enough about him yet to
form an opinion (52%). Andrea Horwath has seen her approval decline slightly
from just less than 4-in-10 (38%) last month to just more than a third this
month (35%), and her net score is a positive +9

Patrick Brown has slight edge as best Premier

Patrick Brown is slightly more likely to be
seen as the best Premier (23%) than Andrea Horwath (18%), but both are
preferred to the incumbent Premier (14%). The plurality of voters actually
thinks none of these contenders can do the job (25%), and almost a fifth don’t
have an opinion (19%).

“The PCs are strongly outperforming
their leader in appeal, which could present a problem in an election situation.
Patrick Brown needs to make himself more known to the electorate, turning some
of the “don’t knows” into approval. Ms Horwath, on the other hand, continues to
outperform her party in approval, which is also not ideal for an election.
People like her personally, but, even with the Liberals in free-fall, her party
remains in third place as voters struggle for a reason to vote NDP. It is
instructive to note, with their leader at her lowest ratings, the Liberal brand
is still relatively strong, and makes a respectable second place showing in
voter preference," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.