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It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.

1,842 Responses to “Eve-of-Referendum polling”

I also think we have to worry about Scotland, and yes Northern Ireland. And even about what this means for the stability of England on it’s own. Sorry, but the political instability genie is out of the bottle now. You can’t whip up “Smash up the status quo, over turn the experts, don’t listen to cries about stability, nationalism over comes everything!” sentiment, and then politely ask it to stop now that you got what *you* wanted.

Now I am on record as being in favour of getting rid of Corbyn due to his basic un-electability, but I don’t think he should carry the can over this fiasco. The conceit that Labour could ‘deliver’ its supporters for remain was both condescending and unrealistic. I do think this was a vote against the ‘establishment’ more than anything else, and the political class will need to take note. I do think the electorate have chosen the wrong issues to express their dissent, but hey-ho that’s democracy for you..

Given that his conversion to Leave seems to have been based on personal opportunism, and his failure to display any clear understanding of the issues apart from sloganeering, I wonder what sort of negotiating stance he will put together?

Given that he’s an Eton / City type, he can hardly act as a figurehead for the dispossessed, or negotiate with any conviction for a deal that badly damages the City. I suppose he’ll blagg his way through as usual, and let the poor people take the hit.

TOH
Agree with both your posts. I am amazed that leave has won, but pleased and in effect all down to Labour, who totally failed to deliver their voters for remain. Who’d have thunk it?

Alec
Completely agree with your post too. Cameron going in October is the right decision. Mp’s all go on their extended hols anyway in 4 weeks. Then it’s the conferences. New PM in place by October, then the decision is should there be a GE? Brown was certainly criticised for not calling one but not sure if the PM has the power to do that now.

The next move could well be the EUs. All depends whether they dig their heels in, or are pragmatic.

Pete you are making the rather big assumption that 100% of labour voters started as he Remainers
No evidence for that and I very much doubt it
i could as easily assume 100% tory supporters were Remainers and Cameron lost over 50% of them
We actually dont know how many people either Cameron Farron or Corbyn persuaded
Similarly Farron doesnt appear to have done to well in Ld strongholds of the southwest
Have you actually ever attended a Corbyn event in order to judge him as lack lustre first hand or is your opinion viewed through the medias somewhat distorted lens?

markets surprisingly stable so far
I expected more panic and although pound down a fair bit that’s arguably a good thing as most countries would love to be able to do that
share changes you wouldn’t notice on a normal day

The idea of a northern irish breakaway is surely a nonsense. Even ignoring a unionist majority, where exactly wouild the province go? Unification with the Republic seems to presuppose the latter would be all for it….I expect they’d want a say in that!

Jayblanc:
I see the Leave campaigners are still repeating the mantra of “Nothing will change.” in spite of the run on the pound and the stock market crashing and Cameron announcing his resignation…
I don’t know where he gets that idea from. The whole point of the Leave campaign was to get us out so that things WOULD BE better. But if he is being mesmerised by temporary volatility in certain markets he should have a cup of tea and calm down. The financial institutions quickly adapt to the real world.
But it will be interesting to see how the Remainers try to explain how house prices have not fallen by 18% and families are not £4,000 worse off. And other such silly claims. Although a leaflet given to me a few days before polling Day had the family one watered down to only £450. Where do they get these figures from? Probably La-La Land. But, of course, they chucked out these figures believing the we would vote Remain and the figures would never be tested. But now they will. Red faces all over the place.

– Labour are so detached from their core support it beggars belief.
– ran a dreadful invisible campaign, bar the last few days.
– a new centre ground leader gives labour genuine hope of an election win next, where as we all know the UK has zero chance of installing two socialists in no 10 & 11 at the next GE.

The problem labour have got was summed up by people like Angela Eagle and Campbell last night. Still blaming Tories and saying this was a protest vote and not about the EU. They still don’t get it, incredibly.

As for Tories, I don’t want Boris, less so Gove. I think there has been some opportunism from Boris which feels back stabby. I am praying for May, second choice Hammond.

@Millie
In the same way that many Leave voters are not xenophobic or racist, it is undoubtedly true that a proportion are, and they will feel validated in their beliefs by this result.

Part of the difficulty in figuring out what happens next is the disparate spread of opinions within Leave. It is a the fact that many senior Leave figure are in favour of MORE non-EU immigration (Gove and Dyson to name the two most explicit proponents). Others want substantial reductions in overall immigration but have not explained how on earth they will achieve this, especially given more than half of migrants are non-EU.

It’s yet another area where we simply don’t know what our representatives goals are, or what they plan to do to achieve those goals, let alone what the EU will agree to.

Corbyn should go and Labour should dump him because there might be a general election that is coming up. They need to find someone who’s electable and who can present leadership. And someone who can make the argument to stay in the EU.

“You call yourself free? Your dominant thought I want to hear, and not that you have escaped from a yolk. Are you one of those who had the right to escape from a yoke? There are some who threw away their last value when they threw away their servitude.
Free from what? As if that mattered to Zarathustra! But your eyes should tell me brightly: free for what?”

Even last night, Dimbleby if you watched was in shock as Eagle wouldn’t answer his questions about the Labour heartlands and constantly droned on about the nasty Tories to each and every question. You could see the exasperation on his face and other guests.

From last night, it also struck me how slick Salmond is. No wonder he wiped the floor with everybody. His response when told some Snr Labour figures were saying its the SNPs fault, was a withering put down of Labours connection to their core vote.

“Can you give yourself your own evil and your own good and hang your own will over yourself as a law? Can you be your own judge and avenger of your law? Terrible it is to be alone with the judge and avenger of one’s own law. Thus is a star thrown out into the void and into the icy breath of solitude. Today you are still suffering from the many, being one: today your courage and your hopes are still whole.

But the time will come when solitude will make you weary, when your pride will double up, and your courage gnash its teeth. And you will cry, “I am alone!” “

Rich theres no way the membership would ever elect David Miliband particularly post Chilcott to remind them of his stint as foreign sec
I’ve met him and if the press could paint Ed as weird just wait til they start on David!There actually is no alternative to Corbyn at the moment and as i said why should there be
Corbyn is closer to the general publics view of europe than any other party leader and closer to his own voters view than any viable alternative
He will also get a boost post Chilcott as one of the only possible leaders to have seen through Blair
If the usual culprits start stirring and if they put up a candidate they will probably just be humiliated and do there own party pointless damage

Seems like the mood in Europe is that we will not be offered good terms, for the simple reason that the other heads of state don’t want to be pushed into the same situation as Cameron by their own Eurosceptics. Which is exactly what they were saying before, but was dismissed as part of “project Fear”.