Monday, March 09, 2009

The final weekend of the regular season and the results of some of the early conference tournaments led to a ton of changes to our bracket in a span of just 72 hours. The most notable changes big conference-wise involved Maryland and Minnesota. The Terps, who were in great shape to secure an at-large heading into this week, inexplicably lost their season finale at Virginia on Saturday to finish 7-9 in conference. They'll need to beat N.C. State in their first round ACC tournament game and then upset Wake Forest in the quarters to get back in the mix for a bid. The Gophers, meanwhile, lost at home to Michigan and were essentially replaced by the Wolverines in the bracket. We are holding firm in our season-long belief that the Big Ten will not get eight bids, and since Michigan is deserving of a bid now after finishing 9-9 in conference, one Big Ten team had to go. We don't like Minnesota's chances against Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, while we are very confident Michigan will get past Iowa in their first round game and secure a bid.

The biggest decision we had to make when putting together this bracket was what to do with Creighton. The Bluejays fell to Illinois State in the MVC semis, and in the process, became the latest in a long line of mid-major bubble teams that is going to have to wait around and pray that the selection committee rewards the "little guy." We, for one, think that this "little guy" deserves to be rewarded. For starters, the Bluejays have wins over Dayton and New Mexico on their resume (which Illinois State didn't have last year as a Valley at-large candidate), they have a top-40 RPI, and they finished tied for first place in conference. They were also on an 11-game winning streak heading into the Valley tournament, a streak that included a Bracketbuster win over George Mason. We know that things are going to have to break right in the MWC, ACC, and SEC tournaments for all of these arguments to matter come Selection Sunday, but if there's not too much craziness in those tournaments, we think Creighton should get a shot. We also know that we've been burned by our support of mid-major at-larges in the past (the Redbirds last year, Drexel in 2007, Hofstra in 2006), and we know that every season is different, but Creighton's overall resume is better than all of those teams, and as of right now, they deserve an at-large.

This weekend's results in the MWC also caused a shake-up in the bracket. UNLV's loss to SDSU dropped the Rebels to 9-7 in conference, and knocked them out of the bracket in favor of New Mexico. UNLV and SDSU face off again this Thursday in the MWC quaterfinals in what is an elimination game. New Mexico, meanwhile, gets Wyoming in their first game, and we like them to win that game and then get past Utah (who they just beat a week ago) to reach the final. An appearance in the final is all the Lobos need to get a bid. The UNLV/SDSU winner gets BYU in the semis, and if the Rebels or Aztecs were to upset the Cougars get to the final and beat New Mexico, there is a chance the Mountain West could be a 4-bid league. That would obviously be ideal. The most likely scenario, though, is that the league ends up with three teams in the tourney (Utah, BYU, and either NM, SDSU, or UNLV).

The final, and maybe the most surprising, change to the bracket came as a reult of Davidson's loss to Charleston in the Southern semis. Unlike Creighton, who has a legit at-large resume as a mid-major, Davidson's tournament hopes are now all but over. The Wildcats have just one win over the Top 100 (West Virginia), they got crushed in their Bracketbuster game by Butler (with Stephen Curry in the lineup), and they couldn't even get to the championship game of the 20th-ranked conference in the country. They are going to need a miracle to make it at this point, and if they do, it's going to entirely based on the star power of Curry and their tourney success from last year, which is a factor the committee says it doesn't consider.

88 comments:

We wouldn't necessarily call it a "must" win since their are scenarios in which they could make the tourney if they lose. They are by no means a lock at this point. Like we've said, we only think there will be room for 7 Big Ten teams on Sunday, so Michigan wants to prevent there being any chance of them being 8 in the pecking order. If they lose to Iowa with Minnesota and Penn State winning, then they could drop to that 8 spot.

In our defense, though, we were ripping Lunardi more for his method (and why he had UNI in) more than we were the fact that he had them in. He even admitted on TV and online when his bracket came out that the only reason UNI was in the field was because they got the 1 seed in the Valley tourney. He still thought Creighton was going to win the tourney and get the automatic, which made UNI's inclusion a total cop out.

Fair enough. Just curious, do you guys base your "no more than 7 Big 10 teams" on a belief the Committee is lying when they say they don't take conference quotas into account, or just that in the end the league will beat up on itself enough that it's not possible more than seven teams will wind up qualified?

Mike L...If PSU loses to lowly Indiana they will be out. If they win and Michigan or Minnesota losses then they should be good. If all three of the teams mentioned win then they may have to beat Purdue (or at least make a good showing) to be safe.

imref...Radford has 0 D-1 wins outside of league. Like Judolphin says, they will need plenty of small conference tourney upsets to avoid the play-in game.

Jerry...A little bit of both. If the committee has other viable options on the bubble we think they will take them instead of putting 8 Big Ten teams in. More than 70% representation by one conference is a bit much. We also think that one of the 3 Big Ten bubble teams playing on Thursday will end up losing and make things easy for the committee. If all three win then things get very interesting and it could be the perfect storm for the Big Ten getting 8.

I don't understand how you can be so confident about the Big Ten only getting seven. It is apparent from the mock selections the NCAA has run and prior years that conference affiliation has no bearing on who is picked. Michigan, Minnesota, and Penn St. aren't competing for one spot. They are competing for maybe eight spots with each other and Maryland, Creighton, Providence, etc. If the Big Ten teams have the best resume, then they should be in. The committee isn't going to put Michigan in the field and then say "No more Big Ten teams get in!"

if penn state, michigan, and minnesota all win on thursday, i think penn state should be in the best shape. they finished BETTER in the Big Ten after splitting the season series 1-1 with both minnesota and michigan. it cannot be ignored that penn state has a better record in the big ten and has bigger wins in the conference. ooc schedules are made in advance. come on committee, look at what penn state has done, not what it hasn't. i am a huge psu fan, but they should obviously be out if they lose to indiana. that is just common sense. if they do beat indiana, they should be close to lock status even with a loss against purdue. i am really nervous about this week. they should've just locked it up in iowa. B101, do you think if minnesota, michigan, and penn state all win only one game in the BTT, penn state will get the short end of the stick?

Believe me, we aren't that confident that the Big Ten doesn't get 8 bids but right now we think that is how it will play out. We agree that the 8th best Big Ten team's resume (and maybe the 7th depending on how the conference tourney goes) will get reviewed against other bubble team resumes next weekend. If it comes down to the 8th team from the Big Ten against the 2nd team from the MVC or 3rd team from the MWC than we think the fact that the committee has already handed out 7 B10 bids will factor into this decision. We don't think that committee members will sit there and say "We can't put 8 B10 teams in" but each member will be thinking about it. We simply can't believe committee members when they say "I had no idea it was that many teams in from such and such conference, I don't pay attention to that".

And of course all of the Big Ten bubble teams numbers are going to look better than a lot of other bubble teams. Each team will have plenty of top 50 wins based on the fact that their are currently 7 Big Ten teams in the top 50 RPI right now.

If Michigan, PSU and Minnesota all win on Thursday then PSU would probably slide into the 8th position. That could very easily change in the quarterfinal games on Friday though since it is a really close call to put the teams in order.

I think that if West Virginia gets in over Davidson then it would be a shame... Davidson plays in a conference that is much stronger than people realize... the league on a whole is very middle heavy with teams that have put some serious wins or big scares into several tourney and bubble teams

See Western Carolina losing by 1 to San Diego St, Chattanooga beating Niagara, C of C beating South Carolina, Wofford losing by 3 to Dayton, Citadel performing very valiantly @ Mich State, Georgia Southern beat Houston and took Florida to the wire in Gainsville,

Then take into account Davidson's losses to Oklahoma by 4...(win over West Virginia), and loss @ Duke where they were in the game most of the way...

I just hope they get considered...7 (potentially 8) Big 10 teams in over Davidson would be tragic if you ask me...

RPI can be a very cruel thing to use when you have teams in your conference that play Savannah State twice and you don't do that but it still brings you down...

What's your rationale for including Providence over Minnesota or even Maryland? Providence has just two Top 50 RPI wins (Minnesota has five, Maryland has 3), a 5-8 record away from home (Minny is 5-6, Maryland is 4-8), and yeah they beat Pitt but Minnesota beat Louisville and Maryland beat North Carolina. Providence finished with 10 Big East wins, but they did it by beating the garbage of that conference.

I think Baylor & Texas A&M are a perfect example of why the Big 12 is in fact the best conference in the land...

They finished 9-7 (5-11 (9th) in the Big 12 but out of conference have wins over the 3rd and 6th and 7th place teams from the mighty Pac 10 and a win over Providence who everyone is sure is in...a win over the 1st place team in the SEC and 1 pt loss to the 4th place team....

Big 12 should get 6 and I think they will actually but even teams like Nebraska, Kansas St and Baylor would pe tourney teams in the A-10 or Big 10 if you ask me...

Creighton's resume is much better than Illinois State's was a year ago. The Bluejays have three Top 50 wins, two quality OOC wins, a 39 RPI (as of Monday) and they tied for first in conference. Illinois State finished two games behind Drake in conference last year, and their best OOC win came against Wright State, who had an 86 RPI. They lost to Drake three times, while this year's Creighton team did win at co-champ UNI.

Arguments could be made that Davidson deserves an at-large, but saying that they should be over West Virginia isn't one of them. Head-to-head results are important, but they don't mean everything (just look at Arkansas). West Virgnia has earned its spot in the field by beating more than one quality opponent. Davidson had a chance to beat other quality opponents, and they didn't, and they weren't even able to make the final in the 20th best conference. That's simply not good enough to get a bid. The only reason they are still in the discussion at this point is because of Stephen Curry and what they did in the tourney last year.

We aren't too crazy about Minnesota's chances against N'Western which is why we left them out.

Providence has some negatives but we think their wins over Pitt and Syracuse and finishing with a winning record in the Big East will go a long ways with the committee. They will obviously need to win their game on Wednesday and at least make a good showing against Louisville to remain in the mix.

minnesota is out of your bracket right now, so if both psu and minn. win, how could they jump penn state. i guess it is too hard to predict the big ten right now, but i think that the regular season should count more than the big ten tourney. the FACT is that penn state was better than michigan and minnesota. penn state is one of the top six teams in the conference. they beat michigan state away and lost by 5 at home. they swept #2 seed illinois, beat purdue, beat michigan, beat minnesota. beating the top 3 teams in the conference is hard to do, and penn state did it. if they beat indiana and fail to get a bid then something's wrong.

How are you not confident about Minnesota's chances against Northwestern? The first game @ NU the Gophers choked away and weren't read for the 1-3-1 zone, which the Wildcats hadn't really played prior to that game. It caught many teams off guard for a while.

2 weeks ago NU came to the Barn and got beat by 27, it was a brutal brutal slaughter.

Also, your whole thing about bids by conference is not intelligent at all. You just posted Creighton's resume and said they were in. Now do the same with Minnesota's, including SOS, RPI, bad losses, Top 50, and Top 100 wins....then tell me Creighton is in and Minnesota is out.

You really have no credibility having them out at this point, especially since you're only doing it based on speculation. As of right now, they are IN. No doubt about it. Now if they do happen to lose to Northwestern, then you might have a point, but they haven't and they probably wont.

The committee is pretty adamant about the fact that conferences don't get bids, and teams do. Also, the procedures used to select the field would seemingly make it difficult for them to bump a team out simply because of their conference. You'd need ten guys to bump them down on a ballot of eight in a secret ballot.

In short, if it's down to Minnesota or New Mexico, it will be Minnesota.

We agree that Providence's Big East schedule was weak, but 10-8 in the Big East is still better than 7-9 in the ACC and it's slightly better than 9-9 in the Big Ten. What is hurting Minnesota the most right now (aside from their dangerous first round match-up with Northwestern) is the fact that they got swept by Michigan and the fact that they were 1-4 against the top three teams in the Big Ten (Penn State was 4-2). Wisconsin was 1-4 against the big three as well, but what the Badgers have going for them at this point is their 7-3 record in their last 10 games (Minnesota is 4-6).

Last comment on the Big Ten...At this point if you were to leave any Big Ten team out we think it has to be Minnesota (it's a very close call). They have a good overall profile but were just 4-6 in their last 10. They did sweep Wisconsin but the Badgers are a game better in conference and finished 7-3 so it keeps them ahead of the Gophers. The Big Ten tourney will ultimately determine their fate.

It's really tough to see the SEC get 4 at this point. The likely quarterfinal matchup between Florida and Auburn is an elimination game. Then the winner of that one will have to beat Tennessee to secure a bid. South Carolina will also need two wins to be a lock. A final matchup between South Carolina and Florida/Auburn probably is the only chance for the conference to get 4 and we don't think it is going to happen.

Is there anyway Texas A&M can get as high as a 7 seed? They have been on fire lately and play Texas Tech in the First Round of the Big 12 tourney then a Mizzou team they handily beat just two days ago, and if they manage to win those two games they play an OU team that is playing worse of late, A&M lost twice this year to them by a combined 12 points... Thanks really enjoy the site

I think it's impressive you guys are so willing to address complaints in the comments - kudos for that.

My question is whether South Carolina would be gone if they lose to Mississippi State or Georgia in the second round of the SECT? And, if they would be, does one win do enough? This is a team that tied for the SEC East championship, and I don't see anyway that Florida should get in ahead of them. Also, if it comes down to the Gamecocks and Auburn (and yes, I realize this is a weak argument), South Carolina did win by double digits in the head-to-head matchup.

I suppose my point is if you think the Gamecocks are not getting in, you'd better be ready to say the SEC is only getting two bids (assuming UT or LSU wins the SECT).

I don't understand how you can be so confident about the Big Ten only getting seven. It is apparent from the mock selections the NCAA has run and prior years that conference affiliation has no bearing on who is picked. Michigan, Minnesota, and Penn St. aren't competing for one spot. They are competing for maybe eight spots with each other and Maryland, Creighton, Providence, etc. If the Big Ten teams have the best resume, then they should be in. The committee isn't going to put Michigan in the field and then say "No more Big Ten teams get in!"

This is how... Penn St is 64th in RPI, NW is 70... If penn state or northwestern lose in the first round they are out, since it would be ridiculous to give them a bid above teams 25-30 slots higher in the RPI, like florida, GMU, or Georgetown... Also, Michigan may have to win their game against iowa(just beat them on saturday) Since they are under 500 against top 100 teams (10-11), and lost to maryland, and penn state, fellow buble teams...

Also, Minnesota could probably be in some trouble with a first round loss, as they are just 8-9 against the top 100, and were swept by michigan, also a loss to NW would give NW two wins against minnesota, which would be difficult to overcomeI see 5 locks, MSU, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, and wisconsin, with minnesota needing to beat NW, NW needing minnesota AND michigan state, penn state needing indiana AND purdue, and michigan needing at least iowa, and maybe illlinois...

South Carolina absolutely has to win it first game (against the winner of Mississippi State-Georgia). A loss and they're done. A win would give them a good chance at an at-large, but they would be far from a lock. They would have to hope at that point that the winner of the Florida/Auburn bubble elimination game loses to Tennessee. If Florida were to beat Auburn and Tennessee and get to the final, the Gators would be over the Gamecocks. It may not seem fair, since South Carolina finished a game ahead in conference, but considering how similar the two teams' resumes are overall, the committee would likely give the edge to the team that advanced further in the conference tournament - and beat two decent/good teams to get there. (If Washington wins the Pac-10 tourney, that helps the Gators out as well.)

We're not saying that scenario will unfold in the SEC tourney - we like Tennessee to beat Florida/Auburn - but if it did, that's how things would end up bid-wise.

The wife of Matt Reeves, our resident bracket-maker, just went into labor, so he will be at hospital for a couple of days. In the meantime, we will focus on answering comments and e-mails and try to have a mock bracket up for Tuesday's Field of 65.

How certain are you that Oklahoma will get a #1 seed if they win the conference tournament? For instance, Joe Lunardi (I know you can disagree with him) has OU at #8 on his s-curve right now with only a 15% chance at a #1 seed. What will the comittee think?

If Oklahoma wins the Big XII tournament, they'll get a 1 seed. If they don't, Michigan State and Louisville would top the list of possible replacements. With Pitt and UNC looking like 1 seed locks right now, the 1 line will probably end up being Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Louisville/Connecticut and Oklahoma/Michigan State.

Hey B101 guys, just want to get your take on something. Many bracketology sites still have Clemson seeded above FSU (I notice that you don't). What do you think the rational is for this? FSU beat Clemson twice, and finished one win better in ACC play. Obviously, if they meet in the ACC quarters, that game will determine a lot, but as of right now, I can't understand how CU can be bracketed (or ranked for that matter) higher than FSU.

To be honest, Bryan, we have no idea why Clemson is ahead of FSU in most brackets. The 'Noles swept the Tigers head-to-head, they have two more Top 50 wins, a better OOC resume, a better conference record, and a better record in their last 10 games (7-3 vs. 5-5). Seems like a pretty cut-and-dry case to us, too.

Creighton? Really? I have a feeling that if a major-conference bubble team like Minnesota, Providence, or Florida got absolutely prison-sexed in their conference tournament by the functional equivalent of Illinois State, you would be nowhere near this forgiving...

Bryan: I'll again plug an article that says exactly what you're saying about FSU, except it was written a couple of weeks ago. Pollsters don't pay very close attention to the actual games or statistics. The talking heads said Clemson was an elite team and FSU was not. If Clemson's still ranked higher at the end of the year, they can feel like they were right all along.

@11:01 AM: There are plenty of mid-major conference teams with high RPIs because of OOC schedules: Memphis, BYU, Butler, Siena... we all have biases, but try not to be delusional that a #70 RPI team deserves an at large bid.

Everyone wants to argue about Creighton getting thumped in its last game (forgetting of course they won 11 straight before that including beating the team that stomped them the week before. So what kind of love will St. Mary's get after tonight?

Thanks JUDolphin - I have indeed read that article before (and do agree on what it says), but when you beat someone ranked/seeded higher than you twice in a row, and finish higher in the standings than they do, there is no rational answer for why you should be ranked below them, country club mentality or not, seems just like plain common sense/logic to me.

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