According to campaign reports filed April 10, Creighton had nearly $887,000 cash-on-hand for the May 10 special election, far more than that held by the three other candidates in the race. Still, the cash advantage, Rice political science professor Mark Jones said, won’t ensure an outright win for the Conroe Republican.

“It would be shocking if it did not go to a runoff,” said Jones, who considers Creighton and fellow state Rep. Steve Toth, R-Woodlands, the “odds-on favorites.” Toth, for his part, had just less than $43,000 in the bank at the end of the March. He attributed the comparatively low numbers more to his focus on campaigning over fundraising than to a lack of enthusiasm among likely voters, calling attention to the fact that he was outraised in his successful bid in 2012 to unseat Rob Eissler.

“It is not who can buy the most koozies, pens and fridge magnets,” said Toth. “That’s never bothered us to be outspent.”

In addition to Creighton and Toth, former state Sen. Michael Galloway and Woodlands Township treasurer Gordy Bunch are also vying for the seat. In 1994, a 29-year-old Galloway wrestled the seat away from 30-year incumbent Democrat Carl Parker, but failed in his subsequent four other attempts win it back. He raised $5,300 in the first months of 2014, ending the three-month reporting period with just more than $6,000 in the bank.

Galloway, reached late Monday for comment, said he thought using fundraising reports to predict political clout was inaccurate. He added although he might not be considered a frontrunner, he was “running to win this race.”

“I have changed the rhetoric in this race, no doubt. And I’m competitive,” he said.

Bunch, the only candidate without legislative experience, is also an outlier in that he’s the only candidate to largely self-fund his campaign. He raised just less than $60,000 in three months this year – all from small donations of $2,500 or less – but pumped in $450,000 of his own money to end the period with $358,000, according to the April 10 campaign reports. Jones said he was surprised Bunch hasn’t raised more, adding “he hasn’t been able to generate much enthusiasm among donors.”

Bunch said Monday he remains “optimistic” of his chances to make it into a runoff, and even win outright, on May 10. Asked why he thinks he can pull put a victory against candidates with far heftier war chests, he pointed to his strategy of reaching out to all – not just Republican – likely voters: “I’m actually willing to talk to them.”

“We’ve been building momentum over the last few months,” Bunch added.

Another round of campaign finance reports is due Friday. Jones said pundits should keep an eye on the race after the May 10 election, as big-money donors are likely to jump into the race only after the runoff candidates are named. Early voting for the special election began Monday and ends May 6. If no one candidate gets 50 percent, the top two vote-getters will proceed to a runoff, which must be set by Gov. Rick Perry. Jones said the runoff would likely be set for the second half of June.