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Dutch Skating Marathon Fading?

By James Kanter October 31, 2008 2:51 pmOctober 31, 2008 2:51 pm

A bridge near the Dutch town Leeuwarden is adorned with large images of skaters, made up of thousands of small photographs of past contestants in the 11-Cities Tour. (Credit: Herman Wouters for The New York Times)

The long-term warming of the climate may be threatening the celebrated Dutch tradition of skating frozen canals and rivers between towns in Friesland, according to a new analysis of climate and skating trends there. Colder conditions permitted the Elfstedentocht, an 11-city skating marathon, to be held, on average, about once every four years a half-century ago. But researchers from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency said this month that the conditions appear favorable only once every 18 years and that “continuing global warming will lead to further diminishing chances of holding an Elfstedentocht.”

“When I was born – in 1956 – the chance of realizing a Frisian Eleven City Ice Skating Marathon in Netherlands was 1 in 4,” said Jan Peter Balkenende, the Dutch prime minister, in a speech that is quoted in an abstract of the report on skating trends, which was published in the journal Climatic Change. “When my daughter was born – in 1999 – this chance had diminished to 1 in 10. An enormous change in one generation!”

The agency first published the indicator in 2005 as a way of illustrating the pace of climate change to the Dutch. The agency acknowledged that “uncertainties surrounding this indicator are large,” with the lower limit of its calculations suggesting a race could be held once every 7 years and the upper limit suggesting it could take place once every 64 years. Once every 18 years was its best estimate. “Still, the conclusion that the chances are diminishing, over time, is robust,” it said.

There’s plenty of variability in the forecast for coming decades, as well. The agency also made projections for 2050 and concluded that the chances of holding an Elfstedentocht would be between once every 18 years in the most favorable case and once every 180 years, in the most unfavorable case. The first official race took place in 1909 and conditions have been good enough for the event to take place 15 times since then, with the most recent race taking place in 1997.

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By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to pass nine billion. Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where humans are already shaping climate and the web of life. Dot Earth was created by Andrew Revkin in October 2007 -- in part with support from a John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship -- to explore ways to balance human needs and the planet's limits.