Thursday, December 1, 2011

Bull-stampede not stopped yet

After a 4% up-day like yesterday (and after a huge 3-day rally), you can at least expect some kind of consolidation. And that is more or less what we got today. A small morning rally reversed after half an hour and brought price exactly to the yesterday morning high (124.50 in SPY). This support held (twice), so an intraday double bottom seemed in place. A second rally started in the early afternoon, but nothing major.

And that's no surprise after the last few days. Price needs to consolidate or pullback. If we keep going higher without resting, the chance of failure will be that much higher. Too high, too fast, too soon... You get the picture. But so far, bullish action. Some words of caution though, bear market rallies are the most violent they say. And I think the last 3 days might apply to that. Future will tell.

Tech was outperforming the other indices today. But if you compare the daily charts (see DIA and QQQ below), tech is still behind on big caps.

5m-chart SPY (including yesterday):

Daily charts DIA, QQQ and SMH:

Gold, silver, copper and oil were all down slightly. The euro basically traded sideways.