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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Middle Kingdom eyes abigger role in the Middle East (JMD quoted in Straits Times)

How China handles its involvement may pose
ramifications on other fronts, like its strategic rivalry with the US

A recent deal on military cooperation between China
and Syria is viewed as a deepening of Beijing's policy towards direct
engagement in the domestic affairs of Middle Eastern states, despite its
long-held principle of non- interventionism.

Observers say how China handles its Middle Eastern
involvement would not only affect its influence and interests in the region but
also pose ramifications on other fronts, like its strategic rivalry with the
United States.

An Aug 15 meeting between China's Rear-Admiral Guan
Youfei and Syrian Defence Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij in Damascus saw both
sides reaching a consensus on the People's Liberation Army providing personnel
training and humanitarian aid to the Syrian military.

Though there have been media reports of the Chinese
military's presence in Syria, the deal marks the first time both sides have
publicly pledged military cooperation and is seen by some as China's decision
to back the Bashar al-Assad government against the opposition rebels. Middle
East expert Sun Degang of the Shanghai International Studies University said
China sees a greater need to protect its economic interests in the Middle East
- which accounts for more than half of China's crude oil imports.

The trigger was the launch of the One Belt, One
Road initiatives in 2013 to revive two ancient Silk Road trading routes, with a
maritime path flowing through the Indian Ocean and an overland one through
Central Asia and the Middle East.

"Stability in the Middle East will benefit
China economically," Prof Sun told The Straits Times.

Some analysts believe China is getting more engaged
in the Middle East as a tit-for-tat response to the US involvement in the South
China Sea and the East China Sea. Others say China's move in Syria may also be
linked to a pledge made by Mr Xi and Mr Putin to "unswervingly deepen
their strategic partnership of coordination" on major international and
regional hot-button issues.

Some analysts also believe China is getting more
engaged in the Middle East as a tit-for-tat response to the US involvement in
the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

Others say China's move in Syria may also be linked
to a pledge made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir
Putin in June to "unswervingly deepen their strategic partnership of
coordination" on major international and regional hot-button issues and to
support each other on their core interests and major concerns.

Russia has since agreed to hold a joint naval drill
with China in the South China Sea next month, while Rear-Adm Guan, director of international
cooperation in the Central Military Commission, reportedly also met Lieutenant-
General Sergei Chvarkov, chief of Russia's reconciliation centre in Syria.

Hong Kong military commentator Ma Dingcheng told
Phoenix TV in a recent interview on the Sino-Syria cooperation pact: "It's
about sending a warning to the real opponent. In Syria, the US and Russia are
competing with one another. By raising its flag, China reminds the US that it
needs to watch its step in the South China Sea and East China Sea; otherwise,
the US may find itself struggling against Russia and China there (in Syria) as
well."

Middle East expert James Dorsey from the S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies said China's goals also include
joining the international fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) terrorist group, which reportedly has links with the East Turkmenistan
Islamic Movement (ETIM) separatist group that seeks the Xinjiang region's
separation from China.

Beijing blames the ETIM for inciting violence in
restive Xinjiang. Chinese leaders have also been under pressure domestically to
do more on counter-terrorism, following the execution of Chinese hostage Fan
Jinghui in Syria last year. Beijing was accused of neglecting his case.

Prof Sun said China's "zero-enemy"
strategy and its standing as a neutral broker offers the country an advantage
in deepening its involvement in the Middle East. "China can be friends
between Israel and the Palestine, between Iran and Saudi Arabia, between Afghanistan
and the Taleban, between the Sunnis and the Shi'ites," he said.

He believes that if China plays its cards well in
the Middle East, it could burnish its reputation as a peacemaker and
responsible global power to counter criticisms of its assertiveness in the
South China Sea.

But others say China's efforts to play a bigger
Middle Eastern role are not without difficulties and have even run into
pitfalls.

For instance, Mr Xi, on a visit to three Middle
Eastern states earlier this year, declared China's support for the peace
process between Israel and Palestine. But his pledge of support for a
Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital reportedly angered the
Israelis.

Dr Dorsey said China, which has no choice but to
get more involved in the Middle East given its growing heft and interests, can
do nothing to avoid potential negative backlash and being dragged into
potential conflict in the region.

"The Middle East is a region that demands
attention. It doesn't like to be ignored. It's not a question of giving China
more time to make its involvement work. It's a question of reality," he
added.

A version of this article appeared in the print
edition of The Straits Times on August 30, 2016, with the headline 'Middle
Kingdom eyes a bigger role in the Middle East'. Print Edition | Subscribe

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile