Sunday, October 30, 2016

PASS: Appalachian State, South Alabama, Arkansas State
Appalachian State fell behind 10-0 in the 1st quarter to Georgia Southern, and then never allowed another point in a 34-0 run to win. The Mountaineers are now tied for the Sun Belt lead with Troy, with a road trip to play the Trojans coming in 2 weeks.
South Alabama picked up their first SBC win of the season over Georgia State, but they tried valiantly to give it away. The Jags pick up a rather unimpressive 13-10 win, but still could find themselves in a bowl with a solid run to wrap up the year. USA is now 4-4 overall.
Arkansas State is another team streaking back from a terrible start, as they destroyed ULM 51-10. The Wolves rolled out to a 42-3 lead at the half and then cruised to the win from that point. ASU is now just a half game out of first, despite being only 3-4 overall.FAIL: Georgia Southern, New Mexico State, Georgia State, UL-MonroeGeorgia Southern led 10-0 over App State, and then fell off the grid in a 34-10 loss. I gets no worse than that. To have a conference leader on the ropes early at home, and then do nothing is just porr coaching and execution at their worst on full display.
New Mexico State was routed by Texas A&M, and nobody is shocked. This is the kind of scheduling that prevents development by the Aggies.
Georgia State fell to just 2-6 on the season, and are now one loss away from falling out of bowl contention in a season that was supposed to see some advances. Trent Miles is on the brink of losing his job, and his buyout is very affordable.
ULM continues to try to find some value in Matt Viator's first season, but being blown out of the building by an Arkansas State team that does not have a winning record is just terrible. One more loss will eliminate the War Hawks from bowl consideration, but that was never an expectation anyway.

PASS: Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State
The Aggies won the Aggie Bowl over New Mexico State, and Texas A&M rolled to a 52-10 non con win over NMSU. There is not much else to say about this win over an undermanned opponent.
Florida won the Cocktail Party, which was hardly surprising, considering that the Gators just had a couple more bullets in the chamber than Georgia had coming in. The Gators stumbled by in the 2nd half, outscoing the Bulldogs just 10-0, but the defense won the day.
Auburn used a 20-7 2nd half to pull away from Ole Miss late in a 40-29 win on the road. More importantly, the Tigers used a 13-0 spurt in the 4th to steal it. Auburn is just one game out in the West behind Alabama, and that game looms large in just a few more weeks.
South Carolina picked up a major win, beating Tennessee 24-21 in Columbia. The Gamecocks are now 4-4, and a bowl could still be possible, which was unthinkable a month ago.
Kentucky keeps pace in the East after a 35-21 win over Missouri on the road, and it is inconceivable that the Wildcats were 7 point dogs at one point. It was the easiest pick I made all week, and Wildcats dominated from start to finish.
Mississippi State turned on their offense, but how the Bulldogs managed to give up 41 points to Samford this week is troubling. The Bulldogs are just 3-5 this season, and have just 1 win in SEC play. This was surely a waste of a week for them, but a win is a win at thgis point.FAIL: Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri
Georgia looks worse every week, and it would seem that firing Mark Richt last season was the right play (even if they allow him to say he resigned). The talent level is really low, and the Bulldogs could not get anything going against a Florida team that is by far the worst one loss team in the nation.
Ole Miss had the same issues they have had all season last night, and that is that their defense cannot close games. Ole Miss had a lead over Auburn in the final quarter but terrible defense once again squandered the day, and even the Chad Kelly led offense ran out of gas. This was not the kind of season Rebel fans envisioned.
Tennessee never lives up to expectations, and the Vols really fell short in a horrific 24-21 loss to South Carolina. Josh Dobbs folded again late, and mistakes have plagued his entire career. He has not developed one bit under Butch Jones, and Jones takes this loss right on the chin.
Missouri is lost this season, and it is time to just start playing guys who have some heart. Odds makers saw them as a TD favorite at home with Kentucky, and the lack of overall talent cost them dearly. Barry Odom has his work cut out.

PASS: USC, Washington, Oregon, Washington State, Stanford
Since a terrible start, USC has won 4 straight games, and is only a half game out in the South. Remember one thing...USC beat Colorado at the Coliseum, and that is who the Trojans are chasing. If the Trojans can get a break, they could be playing for a South title. They need some help, but they are in the chase after riding a 28-10 lead over Cal at the half on the way to a 45-24 win.
Washington is in the playoff as we sit here now. There is still some work to do, but the win at Utah was a very impressive win for the Huskies. Washington beat the Utes 31-24, and it was a battle all the way. This was the most important win of the year for the Huskies.
Oregon also picked up a very important win, because it was their first in the PAC-12 this season, and the Ducks are now just 1-4 in league play, tied for last in the North. Oregon led Arizona State 30-14 at the half, and never looked back, whic slightly cooled the seat for Mark Helfrich, but only just so.
Washington State got a huge wake up call last night in a 35-31 win over Oregon State. The Cougars trailed 24-6 at the half, and then scored 22 points in the 3rd to come raging back. The Cougars are now 5-0, and are tied for the top spot in the North.
Stanford came back to life last night at Arizona, beating the Wildcats 34-10, but even beter was that Christian McCaffrey scored for the first time since September. The Cardinal are still 2.5 games back in the North, and are not in the race.FAIL: California, Utah, Arizona State, Oregon State, Arizona
The Cal Bears are now in a spot where they have to split their remaining games just to base qualify for a bowl. That is going to be a tough ride with games against Stanford, Washington, and Washington State all still coming up.
Utah is still just a half game out in the PAC-12 South after losing to Washington, and still get to take on Colorado in November. This was not a terrible loss for the Utes, and they could possibly still get their shot at redemption against Washington in a potential conference title match.
I am not certain why people still respect Todd Graham as a coach. Arizona State is basically terrible, and were blown out by an Oregon team that had not won a conference game. That is a terrible loss for ASU, and the Sun Devils have never played in a conference championship game under his watch.
Oregon State had Washington State on the ropes at home last night, but the Beavers imploded in the 3rd, and they just could not get a grip after that in a 35-31 loss. This was a rough loss for the building Beavers.
Arizona is completely toast. There is no life left in this football team after a 34-10 loss to Stanford. Arizona is now 0-5 in conference play, and they are one game away from elimination in a bowl chase.

PASS: San Diego State, Air Force, Wyoming, San Jose State, New Mexico
The news was twice as good as usual for San Diego State this week. The Aztecs blasted Utah State on the road 40-13, and then got more good news when Hawaii slipped up at home in a loss to New Mexico. SDSU now leads the West by a full 2.5 games now, and they seem to pulling away at the right time.
With the UNM win, the Lobos have pulled into a 2nd place tie in the Mountain with Boise State, who fell short to Wyoming for the first time ever. New Mexico is really streaking at a good time now, as they have run their winning streak to 3 games. The Lobos have some chances to make some noise, but another loss for Boise State would help.
Wyoning had never beaten Boise State dating back to their first meeting in 2002. The Cowboys played a solid game plan into fruition, and got the winning points on a safety as the ball was ripped from Brett Rypien's hands to roll out of the back of the end zone. Wyoming now controls the Mountain, and Craig Bohl is the conference coach of the year if the award were to be given out today.
San Jose State is not a factor in the West, as hardly anyone is anymore, but they needed a win at home last night over UNLV, and they got one. Ron Caragher buys himself another week with that win.
Air Force is out of the Mountain race as well right now, but they also picked up a much needed win over hapless Fresno State, who continues to fall after the firing of Tim DeRuyter.FAIL: Utah State, Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV, Hawaii
Utah State is as down as they can be after a blowout loss at home to San Diego State, and making matters worse was terrible attendance and scant support. Matt Wells, who was a rock star a couple of years ago, is now looking to be in over his head in trying to right the ship. The Aggies are now just 1-4 in conference play.
Fresno State is still in a free fall, and it looks bleak as to where they could win another game this season. Their only win on the year comes against FCS Sacramento State, and they have hardly been in any conference game. One bit of news on their job seems to be that Lane Kiffin, listed early on as a candidate, will not be one after all.
Boise State had never lost to Wyoming, until 2016. The Broncos, who were lucky as can be to win the week before against BYU, were finally bitten this week in their freakish loss to the Cowboys on the road. The loss knocks them out of NY6 consideration, and they no longer control their own destiny in conference play.
UNLV is playing more and more like a young football team, and this was one of their terrible losses this season, as the Rebels fell at San Jose State. This loss, along with their loss to Idaho, are just terrible losses for a program trying to build an identity.
Hawaii had a shot to keep pace with San Diego State, but now not even the Rainbows are in that race any longer. Hawaii fell short at home to New Mexico, and that is going to be a haunting loss at the end of the season. Even worse, it dropped them to just 4-5, and the clock is winding down to get bowl qualified. Hawaii has to win 2 more to get there.

PASS: Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, UTSA, Old Dominion
The powers in CUSA football are starting to assert themselves at the right time, and WKU is at the head of the line. The Hilltoppers rolled up a 28-0 run after the half to crush FAU 52-3 on the road, and maintained a half game lead over MIddle Tennessee in the East. The Blue Raiders also won, beating FIU 42-35, but struggled more than WKU did to get there. FIU went blow for blow with the Blue Raiders, but came up just short in the upset attempt. Old Dominion is stied with MT this week, also a half game back of the Hilltoppers, after a 31-21 struggle with UTEP. ODU had a difficult time dispatching the Miners on the road, but RB Ray Lawry did break the all-time school TD record with his 31st on his career.
Louisiana Tech maintained a half game lead in the West after a rousing 61-16 blowout win over winless Rice. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 41-0 lead at the half and never looked back. They lead Southern Miss, who despite a couple of missteps,have found themselves right in the thick of the race. The Golden Eagles did have some tough spots yesterday, hanging on to beat Marshall 24-14, and the offense was not on their A game in the win. UTSA moved into 3rd in the West with a 31-17 win over North Texas, which was a solid win for the Roadrunners. The win brings UTSA to 4-4 overall in Frank Wilson's 1st season as coach.FAIL: FAU, Rice, Marshall, FIU, North Texas, UTEP
There has been little word from FAU on the Charlie Partridge situation, but the Owls are sinking like a rock under his leadership. AD Patrick Chun has got to make a decision on this soon, as the damage is taking long term effect with the Owls.
Speaking of Owls, rest assured at this point that David Bailiff will be out at the end of the season. AD Joe Karlgaard is loathe to make an in season change, but he has said nothing about not making a change, and leaned in that direction when questioned.
Marshall has completely collapsed this season, but it is a blip on the radar for Doc Holliday, so stay tuned until next season there. It is rare to see a team fall so far, so fast.
FIU has already made their change, and after a nice 3 game win streak post firing of Ron Turner, the Panthers have dropped games against Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee to fall to 3-5. Word on the street is that Butch Davis could be in play here.
North Texas is a young football team trying to find their way, and this week was not a good way to go in a 31-17 loss to UTSA, just a week after the Eagles beat Army. Still, Seth Littrell has done a fine job early on.
UTEP is now a certified disaster, and one has to wonder how much gas Sean Kugler has left in his tenure with the Miners. The program seems in reverse now.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

PASS: Houston, East Carolina, Temple, SMU, Tulsa, USF
Houston was in a funk coming into their game with UCF, and trailed 21-3 in the first half. The Cougars then went on a tear on the second half, and outscored the Knights 28-3 in the final two quarters to steal a 31-24 win, and that win now has them a half game back of Navy after the Middies fell to USF on Friday.
USF led Navy 42-14 at the half, and then led 45-14 in the 3rd, when Navy put on a massive comeback. The Bulls were able to hold off the attack in the end, and snuck away with a 52-45 win. That win keeps the Bulls in a tie with Temple for the East lead, but Temple has the edge in head to head play. USF still needs some help here, because Temple won again this week.
The Owls shut out Cincinnati 17-0 after the half this week, and rolled past the Bearcats 34-13 to hold that edge in the East. Temple has now won 3 straight after a 3-3 start to the year, and is now bowl eligible.
SMU is showing major signs of life out west, aster they rallied for a 35-31 win over Tulane on the road. SMU had everything thrown at the, this week, and survived a letdown after beating Houston a week ago to take the win. The Mustangs are starting to show return on invesment, and at 4-4, could possible sneak into a bowl this season with a strong finish.
Tulsa is in a bowl after their big win over Memphis on the road this week, and they are shooting for more after their 59-30 victory over the Tigers. Tulsa is now tied with Navy at the top of the East division, and they get Navy in 2 weekson the road. Tulsa controls their own destiny, and Phillip Montgomery is building a winner.FAIL: UCF, U Conn, Cincinnati, Tulane, Memphis, Navy
UCF had Houston down big, and then let up in a 31-24 loss to the Cougars. IF UCF is to be taken seriously, they need to hold on to win these games. The loss takes the Knight out of the East race as it stands.
U Conn is a disaster. The Huskies were blown out by a struggling East Carolina team on the road, are now 3-6 overall, and are just 1-5 in league play. How this is better than Paul Pasqualoni is beyond me.
Cincinnati is also a terrible football team, and I am still wondering what Tommy Tuberville did to earn his contract extension. The program is far worse than it was under his predecessors, and is worsening all the time under his watch. The most overrated coach in America gets more overrated as each season passes.
Tulane is still a program in process. The Green Wave missed several opportunities to beat SMU today, and that is a sign of a young and building football team. The growth is there, even if the execution is not.
Memphis really blew a huge chance today in a 4 TD loss to Tulsa at home. The Tigers are now a full 2.5 games behind Navy and Tulsa, and has lost the tie breaker to Tulsa and Navy both. They are, for all purposes, out of the race.
Navy also completely fell apart at USF this week, and have a major game coming with Tulsa in 2 weeks. They cannot allow themselves to get buried early as they did Friday night. Despite a valiant comeback, they fell well short, and Tulsa is moving the needle higher than the Middies are now.

PASS: Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Clemson saved the country from endless speculation and insanity by coming back late to beat Florida State in a back and forth game on the road. It was Clemson's first win at Florida State since 2006, and Clemson was largely though to be under the gun going into this game. Clemson never gave up on this night, and four team playoff with all four being undefeated stayed intact.
Louisville stayed in pace with Clemson, but the Cardinals got no favors in this week 9, having been challenged by Virginia every step of the way in a 32-25 win. Lamar Jackson had his customary big day, but was also sacked 5 times and was frustrated at times. Stil, the Cardinals win makes them a palatable choice for the playoff if someone should lose to make way for them.
Georgia Techstarted off quickly, but had to hold off a Duke rally at the end to win 38-35 at home. The Yellow Jackets need one more win to be bowl eligible, but this win probably cooled things off for Paul Johnson, who has come under criticism of late by some corners.
Boston College snapped a 12 game conference losing streak and used a trick play to steal a win over NC State on the road in a 21-14 victory for the Eagles. BC held the Wolfpack to just 31 yards rushing in the win, and is now 4-4, just 2 wins short of being bowl eligible.
Virginia Tech found themselves in a shoot out with Pitt, which has become customary for the Panthers this season, but the Hokies had more bullets in a 39-36 wild win on the road this week. The Hokies own the tie breaker in the Coastal Division, and are now 6-2 on the season. Should they win out, they will play for an ACC title in Justin Fuente's first season.FAIL: Florida State, Virginia, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, Pittsburgh
This was a terrible week in the ACC, as the conference finished 5-7 overall, and lost both their non con games this week, with Wake Forest falling to Army at home, and Miami losing at Notre Dame. Wake Forest fell short of qualifying for a bowl this week with their loss at Army, which drops them to 5-3 overall. Miami fell to just 7-18 all-time against Notre Dame, and blew a late 27-20 lead in a 30-27 loss to the Irish. Miami has fallen to just 4-4 on the season, and only boasts a 1-3 record in ACC play. The loss was the 4th in a row by the Canes after starting 4-0.
Florida State completely blew a chance at beating Clemson at home in a 37-34 loss to the Tigers, the first loss to Clemson at home in 10 years. FSU had a 34-29 lead late in a wild 4th quarter, but horrible blocking on offense, and even worse play by the secondary on defense doomed the Noles to fall to just 5-3 this season, and they are now just 2-3 in ACC play.
Virginia earned some respect, but not a win against Louisville today. With the loss, UVA falls to just 2-6, and are a loss away from losing out on a bowl.
Duke has been a mess this season, and fell to 0-4 in ACC play, and just 3-5 overall with their loss to Georgia Tech. They fell to the bottom of the Coastal, in sole possession of last place, and are the only team in the conference without at least one win in conference play this season.
NC State has now lost 4 straight games this season, with the latest coming at home against Boston College, who has not won in ACC play in forever. Ryan Finley has tossed 6 picks in the last 3 games, and the run game has fallen off the grid.
Pitt has not played defense all season, and Pat Narduzzi is a defensive guru. The Panthers have been a mess on defense all season long, and there seems to be no end in sight there. They completely allowed a major shot at a win against Virginia Tech to slip through their fingers this week.

PASS: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota, Indiana
The Wolverines did not hold the pedal on the metal all four quarters today, but it mattered little in the end, as the commanded the bulk of their win over Michigan State today, a 32-23 win. Michigan is one of my final four clubs without a doubt as of now, and I cannot see them losing to Ohio State as the early lines could project. Nobody other than Alabama is as good as the Wolverines are right now.
Ohio State gets a nod in the PASS direction, but very well could have been failed. Where I pass them is on the fact that they won a tough game despite the fact that JT Barrett was unable to find the end zone today. That is impressive all by itself.
Wisconsin had to go to OT after blowing a 17-7 lead in the 4th, and they took Nebraska down at home 23-17. Many people are loving the Badgers right now, but they still have a long road to travel, and any dreams of them finding a back door into the college football playoff is ludicrous. Still, a Rose Bowl bid would be a strong possibility, but only if Nebraska loses again.
Penn State is showing a huge burst the last two weeks, and avoided a letdown after beating Ohio State last week by crushing Purdue 62-24. The Lions are really finding themselves these last couple of weeks, and could be very strong in 2017 if what we are seeing now is any indication.
Minnesota blew opne theuir game with Illinois today, and played their best full game in a 40-17 win over Illinois. The Gophers are now tied with the Badgers for 2nd in the West after the big win, and still play Wisconsin in the season finale. and plays at Nebraska in 2 weeks. The Gophers could be a dark horse right now.
Indiana got a massive win today in beating Maryland at home, 32-26. Kevin Wilson needed that win in a big way for his own status, but there is work still to be done. The Hoosiers will need to win two more to go bowling, and that is no easy task at this point.FAIL: Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland
Michigan State continues to show signs of implosion this season. There were some personnel losses after last season, but nothing explains how far the Spartans have dropped this season. After the Michigan loss, they are now just a loss away from being home for the holidays.
Northwestern almost got a pass for their loss to Ohio State, as they covered a 30 point spread today, and kept JT Barrett from scoring, and may have eliminated hi in the Heisman race. Still, this was a costly loss, as a win would have had them tied for first with Nebraska tonight.
Speaking of the Huskers, they fall from the ranks of the unbeaten, and become an afterthought in the National playoff picture. Nebraska has to win out to keep Wisconsin and Minnesota off of their heels now.
Purdue has scored 203 points, but has given up 293 this season, and are now 0-2 since the firing of coach Darrell Hazell. The program needs to make a solid hire this time around, because the damage will take years to dig out from.
Illinois has been a mess under Lovie Smith. At just 2-6, they are one loss from being ineligible for a bowl. The Smith hiring has brought nothing to this program, but it is only year one. I just don't hear any buzz around this program moving ahead to next season, or after.
Maryland should not have lost to Indiana today. They are the better program right now. This is an issue that must be worked on for 2017, which is winning on the road in close games, especially over teams that you are better than. This loss was tough to take.

PASS: Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Texas Tech
Texas picked up a huge win with a late FG to beat Baylor 35-34 at home, which is a win that Charlie Strong can really build on, and if Texas can rally with a strong finish, it may save Strong's job in the big picture. This is certainly a huge win for him.
Oklahoma State killed the other unbeaten Big 12 team, beating West Virginia 37-20, and it was never that close. The Cowboys now are just a game back of Oklahoma, and still have a shot to win out and steal the Big 12 title in a year where nobody was really thinking of them as having that shot. Mike Gundy is doing one of his finer jobs coaching this program this season.
Oklahoma has been unstoppable since the disastrous September that they had. The Sooners rolled past Kansas 56-3 tonight, and now hold a one game lead overall in the conference. Bob Stoops kept this team from sinking to the bottom, and they have recovered big time. If they could play September again, Oklahoma would look like a playoff team.
Kansas State got pushed by Iowa State this week, and the Wildcats are now just a win away from getting back to a bowl, which is a big deal this season. They remain 2 games out of the conference race, so getting to a bowl has got to be the focus for what could be the last season under Bill Snyder. He doesn't have too many more in him even if this is not his last.
Kliff Kingsbury got a much needed win over TCU to get to 4-4 on the season. TCU is having a big down season in 2016, so that win isn't as good as it would have been last season, but he cannot afford to lose much more. This cools his seat somewhat.FAIL: Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas, Iowa State, TCU
Baylor and West Virginia are both in the same boat, as the Bears and Mountaineers both fell from the ranks of the undefeated today. That is more painful when you consider that those two losses likely just killed any chance that the Big 12 gets repped in the final four this year...again. Baylor's SOS out of conference, and WVU as well, will likely ensure that happens, especially with Oklahoma now leading the conference with 2 overall losses on the year. No team will get into the playoffs with 2 losses, and Baylor and WVU will not even be able to claim a league title if all things remain the same.
With their losses today, Kansas and Iowa State are both 7 game losers, which basically eliminates them from bowl consideration without a waiver, which makes the Big 12 the fastest power five team to have two teams eliminated.
TCU continues to struggle this season, but this is not a huge shock to anyone, or it should not be. TCU lost a ton of talent heading into 2016, and that is going to take a toll. It's time to start thinking about 2017 and the rebound.

PASS: U Mass, Coastal Carolina, Army, Notre Dame
U Mass is proving my point that they should follow the Idaho model and head back to 1-AA football. The Minutemen played a week sister FCS program this week in Wagner, and cruised easily for their second win of the season. The only other win this season was against FIU. U Mass now closes out the season with 3 straight on the road against Troy, BYU, and Hawaii.
Coastal Carolina is still wrapping up their final full schedule against FCS programs, and destroyed former Big South partner Presbyterian 48-17. The Chanticleers jumped out with a 23 point first quarter to jump out to a lead that the Blue Hose could never recover from.
Army got a huge, much needed road win at Wake Forest, beating the Decons 21-13 on 14 points in the final quarter to steal the win. The Cadets, on a 5-3 record, have the best record among Independents in 2016. They need one more win to qualify for a bowl trip.
Notre Dame finally got a breakthrough win tonight by beating Miami 30-27. Justin Yoon drilled the game winner, but not until the Irish blew a 20-0 lead to trail at one point 27-20 to the Hurricanes. The Irish now need to win 3 more to qualify for a bowl, but this was a win that could lift the Irish up, and was hard fought.FAIL: NONE!!!!

PASS: Kent State, Miami (Ohio), Ohio, Buffalo
Kent State is not in the MAC East race by any means at 2-3 in conference play. The big deal about their 27-24 win over Central Michigan is that the win likely put off any firing of Paul Haynes another week.
Miami's win is a bit bigger, because it puts the Red Hawks at 3-2 in conference play, and they now trail Akron by only one game in the East standings. Chuck Martin also needs these wins to save his job, and Miami has not been eliminated from bowl consideration just yet. They're still alive.
Ohio controls their own destiny at this point after a 31-26 win over Toledo. The Bobcats are now 4-1 in the East, and they have already beaten Miami this season, who trails by one game. Only Akron stands in the way right now, and they play in the season finale. The good news is that Akron was destroyed by a miserably bad Buffalo squad this week.
Buffalo picked up a huge confidence building win by hammering Akron 41-20. The Bulls are not in the race by any means, but this was a builder win for the rest of this season, and heading into next season. Lance Leipold isn't going anywhere.FAIL: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Akron
CMU lost to Kent State, and that was not a good loss for the Chippewas. It dropped them to 2-3 in the West, and drops them from the race. The Chippewas could still qualify for a bowl with a win next week, but they are headed in the wrong direction with a 2 game losing streak intact.
Eastern Michigan is a little bit all over the place right now. Their offense completely disappeared in a 28-15 loss to Miami, and the Eagles are also now just 2-3 in the West, and like CMU, they have a a 2 game losing streak going. However, still like CMU, they could still qualify for a bowl with a win next week.
Toledo no longer completely controls their own destiny in the West race with Western Michigan. The Broncos are off this week, but Toledo's loss to Ohio drops the Rockets back by a game. The Rockets and Broncos still play in the finale, but the Rockets absolutely have to win as things stand now.
Akron is in a bad position now as well, having gotten wrecked by Buffalo. Ohio still looms large on the schedule, but they are a full game out in the East now.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

The following coaches are feeling some heat for various reasons this week. Not all will eventually be fired, unless they continue to trend in the wrong direction. Here is my list of coaches feeling some heat this week:

Tommy Tuberville, Cincinnati
You should not take anything from him signing an extension just a couple of weeks ago. Sometimes extensions are just a way to impress upon a coach that winning is a must. Tuberville did not deserve his extension by any stretch, which makes his receiving one confusing. Cincy is just 1-3 in AAC play this season.Heat Level: ModeratePaul Johnson, Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are struggling once again, and after a solid start, they have been in full regression. This may be a situation where Paul Johnson has become a stale figurehead in Atlanta, and that never works out well in the end. He is thought highly of by the Tech administration, but how long will they put up with being a non factor in the ACC race year after year?Heat Level: Moderate

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
Record aside, one has to wonder how much life Gundy has in him in Stillwater, especially when he insists on publicly feuding with T. Boone Pickens. Gundy is still winning, but there is a power struggle going on, and Gundy will lose that war.Heat Level: Getting WarmerKevin Wilson, Indiana
The Hoosiers started out well, as they tend to do, and then October came around, and they unraveled, which also is what they tend to do. Wilson has had plenty of time to get this program running strong, but they are now just 3-4, and completely out of the division race in Big 10 play in a year that was supposed to see them turning a corner.Heat Level: ScorchingBrian Kelly, Notre Dame
He just received the cursed backing of his boss in public this week. That's not a good thing. Notre Dame is beyond below expectations at this point. A team that started in the top 10, and had championship aspirations is now just trying to qualify for the Music City Bowl.Heat Level: White HotRod Carey, Northern Illinois
Carey has been rock solid up until this season, but there is a contingent of the Husky community that want his head on a platter. I think that would be a huge mistake, especially with better play as of late, but if this repeats next season, fire away.Heat Level: MildTroy Calhoun, Air Force
He is now just 1-3 in Mountain West play this season, and the inconsistencies of his tenure just continue to plague him. The Falcons have been falling apart for weeks, and Calhoun is no longer on the Purdue shopping list.Heat Level: MildBrian Polian, Nevada
The Nevada offense is off the rails, and the Wolfpack has fallen well below expectations. Polian no longer looks like a rock star, and the Pistol looks rusty. Nobody can be happy about a 3-5 season, when the Pack was expected to finish right behind San Diego State in the MWC West.Heat Level: Moderate

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
He got a huge (yet undeserved) extension this season, but the Wildcats are having their worst season under him. The buyout is huge, so he isn't going anywhere right away, but the pressure is building.Heat Level: ModerateMark Stoops, Kentucky
Stoops was a Dead Pool candidate weeks ago, but Kentucky is in second place in the East. He is still on the fence, but if Kentucky continues to win, he will be safe. If they trend the other way, he is back in the pool.Heat Level: ModerateHug Freeze, Ole Miss
The Rebels were expected to compete this season, despite huge losses in personnel. They still had Chad Kelly at QB, but that has not translated to bad defense. Ole Miss is 3-4, and isn't getting any better. If you add off-field issues aplenty, Freeze is closer to the Dead Pool every day.Heat Level: HighMark Hudspeth, UL-Lafayette
Hudspeth has had his fair load of drama, on and off field. The Cajuns are in a wierd place as a program right now, they are in the middle, but they sink back to horrible from time to time. There is no seeming development of the program right now.Heat Level: HighComing Tomorrow: Coaches Swimming in the Dead Pool

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Last week was certainly productive when it came to picking straight up winners, as I finished 83-28 between FBS and FCS picks. Let's see what I can pull off this week! Here are my straight up winner picks for every game played in FBS and FCS football in week 9:

FBS
USF over Navy
Houston over UCF
East Carolina over U Conn
Temple over Cincinnati
SMU over Tulane
Memphis over Tulsa
Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh
Florida State over Clemson
Louisville over Virginia
Georgia Tech over Duke
NC State over Boston College
Wake Forest over Army
Miami over Notre Dame
Baylor over Texas
Oklahoma State over West Virginia
Oklahoma over Kansas
Kansas State over Iowa State
TCU over Texas Tech
Michigan over Michigan State
Ohio State over Northwestern
Wisconsin over Nebraska
Penn State over Purdue
Minnesota over Illinois
Maryland over Indiana
Western Kentucky over FAU
Louisiana Tech over Rice
Southern Miss over Marshall
Middle Tennessee over FIU
North Texas over UTSA
Old Dominion over UTEP
Toledo over Ohio
Akron over Buffalo
Central Michigan over Kent State
Eastern Michigan over Miami (Ohio)
San Diego State over Utah State
Air Force over Fresno State
Boise State over Wyoming
UNLV over San Jose State
Hawaii over New Mexico
USC over California
Washington over Utah
Arizona State over Oregon
Washington State over Oregon State
Stanford over Arizona
Texas A and M over New Mexico State
Florida over Georgia
Auburn over Ole Miss
Tennessee over South Carolina
Kentucky over Missouri
Mississippi State over Samford
Appalachian State over Georgia Southern
South Alabama over Georgia State
Arkansas State over UL-Monroe
U Mass over Wagner
Coastal Carolina over Presbyterian

FCS

North Dakota over Weber State
Northern Colorado over Portland State
Eastern Washington over Montana
Southern Utah over Idaho State
Cal Poly over Sacramento State
Charleston Southern over Bucknell
Kennesaw State over Monmouth
Liberty over Gardner-Webb
New Hampshire over Stony Brook
Albany over Elon
Maine over William and Mary
Delaware over Towson
James Madison over Rhode Island
Yale over Columbia
Princeton over Cornell
Penn over Brown
Harvard over Dartmouth
North Carolina A and T over Florida A and M
South Carolina State over Hampton
Howard over Savannah State
Norfolk State over Morgan State
Bethune-Cookman over Delaware State
Missouri State over Southern Illinois
Western Illinois over South Dakota
South Dakota State over Illinois State
Youngstown State over Indiana State
North Dakota State over Northern Iowa
Sacred Heart over St. Francis
Central Connecticut State over Robert Morris
Duquesne over Bryant
SE Missouri State over Austin Peay
Jacksonville State over Eastern Illinois
UT Martin over Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee State over Murray State
Georgetown over Lafayette
Lehigh over Fordham
Holy Cross over Colgate
San Diego over Marist
Dayton over Stetson
Jacksonville over Davidson
Valporaiso over Butler
Campbell over Drake
Southern over Alcorn State
Prairie View over Jackson State
Grambling over UA Pine Bluff
Alabama A&M over Alabama State
Sam Houston State over Texas Southern
VMI over Furman
Wofford over Mercer
Citadel over East Tennessee State
Chattanooga over Western Carolina
McNeese State over Abilene Christian
Nicholls State over Northwestern State
Lamar over Houston Baptist
Stephen F Austin over Incarnate Word
Central Arkansas over SE Louisiana

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

I finished 78-31 picking straight up winners between FBS and FCS football last week. Here are my picks for week 8 of the 2016 season:

USF over Temple L
Houston over SMU L
Memphis over Navy L
UCF over U Conn W
Tulsa over Tulane W
Cincinnati over East Carolina W
Virginia Tech over Miami W
Louisville over NC State W
North Carolina over Virginia W
Syracuse over Boston College W
West Virginia over TCU W
Oklahoma over Texas Tech W
Oklahoma State over Kansas W
Texas over Kansas State L
Ohio State over Penn State L
Michigan over Illinois W
Nebraska over Purdue W
Wisconsin over Iowa W
Minnesota over Rutgers W
Northwestern over Indiana W
Michigan State over Maryland L
Army over North Texas L
Rice over Prairie View W
Middle Tennessee over Missouri W
Marshall over Charlotte L
Louisiana Tech over FIU W
UTSA over UTEP L
Western Kentucky over Old Dominion W
Western Michigan over Eastern Michigan W
Bowling Green over Miami (Ohio) L
Toledo over Central Michigan W
Ohio over Kent State W
Ball State over Akron L
Northern Illinois over Buffalo W
Boise State over BYU W
San Diego State over San Jose State W
Air Force over Hawaii L
UNLV over Colorado State L
New Mexico over UL-Monroe W
Wyoming over Nevada W
Utah State over Fresno State W
California over Oregon W
Washington over Oregon State W
Utah over UCLA W
Colorado over Stanford W
Washington State over Arizona State W
Alabama over Texas A&M W
Arkansas over Auburn L
LSU over Ole Miss W
South Carolina over U Mass W
Vanderbilt over Tennessee State W
Kentucky over Mississippi State W
Troy over South Alabama W
UT-Martin over Georgia State L
Appalachian State over Idaho W
UL-Lafayette over Texas State W
Georgia Southern over New Mexico State W
Coastal Carolina over Central Connecticut State W (43-14)

FCSEastern Washington over Montana State W
Northern Colorado over Sacramento State W
North Dakota over Idaho State W
Montana over Northern Arizona L
Weber State over Southern Utah W
Cal Poly over UC Davis W
Kennesaw State over Gardner-Webb W
Monmouth over Liberty L
Charleston Southern over Presbyterian W
Maine over Rhode Island W
Stony Brook over Delaware W
New Hampshire over Towson W
Villanova over Albany W
Richmond over Elon W
Penn over Yale W
Cornell over Brown L
Princeton over Harvard L
Dartmouth over Columbia L
NC Central over Morgan State W
North Carolina A&T over Howard W
South Carolina State over Delaware State W
Norfolk State over Bethune-Cookman L
Hampton over Florida A&M L
Missouri State over Northern Iowa W
Indiana State over Southern Illinois W
South Dakota State over Youngstown State W
Illinois State over South Dakota L
North Dakota State over Western Illinois W
Duquesne over St. Francis L
Sacred Heart over Robert Morris W
Wagner over Bryant L
Eastern Illinois over Murray State L
Tennessee Tech over SE Missouri State W
Jacksonville State over Eastern Kentucky W
Mercer over Austin Peay W
Lehigh over Holy Cross W
Bucknell over Lafayette W
Fordham over Georgetown W
Marist over Davidson W
Jacksonville over Morehead State W
Dayton over Butler W
Campbell over Stetson L
San Diego over Valporaiso W
Texas Southern over Jackson State L
Grambling over Mississippi Valley State W
Southern over Arkansas-Pine Bluff W
East Tennessee State over West Virginia Wesleyan W
Citadel over Wofford W
Chattanooga over VMI W
Samford over Western Carolina W
Incarnate Word over Abilene Christian L
Sam Houston State over Nicholls State W
SE Louisiana over Houston Baptist W
McNeese State over Northwestern State W
Central Arkansas over Lamar W (40-13) 83-28 overall

Life can be great once you get back over .500 on your picks against the spread like I did this week! Don't get me wrong, I only went 11-7, so not great, but it was enough to get me back above the middle line, which may as well be the middle finger as far as I have been concerned in this miserable pick season. I am now 77-75-4 on the year, so it is time to put that all at risk once again. Here are my week 9 picks against the spread!

Tim DeRuyter became our latest Dead Pool candidate to officially drown in the raging waters of our coaching ocean this week, and with his firing, which shocked me not one bit, comes the circus that begins with the firing of a coach at a school where football is everything.
Fresno State is a football hot bed. Take faith in this based on the fact that a Group of Five California State school (a system deep in the red, mind you), was paying Tim DeRuyter $1.5 annually. Little of that money was actually paid through the state, but by a well placed group of boosters and donors, which is a thing not usually seen at a program on the level of this. This group is well placed to get the person that they want to coach this program, and will likely be the best placed group of five program moving forward with a coaching vacancy.
DeRuyter wasn't bad in the beginning, but he trended downward every season after years one and two, and this week, the Bulldogs ranked next to last of 128 schools in our weekly PRS rankings. That is a huge indicator that DeRuyter was finally done, and when he lost his 7th game of the year, making Fresno State bowl ineligible (save a waver, and how we hate that), there was no longer a reason to extend the pain of what was to inevitably come. DeRuyter was dismissed, and with that move came the event of the year in the Central Valley, a coaching carousel circus had begun.
Several reports have surfaced in the last few days about who would be on the candidate list for the Bulldogs. The Fresno Bee, USA Today, and others have all weighed in, and the lists that have been made available by coachingsearch.com tell a varied tale. Let me break these lists down for you, but first, one fact must be noted. Athletic Director Jim Bartko has an extensive history with Oregon. Now hold that thought as we go into the magical list of perceived candidates.
First, we delve into the list posted by the Fresno Bee, the hometown paper of the Bulldogs, a paper that has three assigned reporters to the Bulldog beat:

Jeff Tedford
Tedford is desperate to get back into coaching, so much so that he recently made a stab at revisiting old haunts, like coaching in the CFL, which by the way was a miserable time for him with the BC Lions. Tedford, a former player and assistant, has ties, but the end of his stint at California was a disaster, and APR rankings sunk big time. At Cal. Where academics are lauded. Tedford seems like a name here, but not the best name.Reality Meter: Higher side, but I would not bet everything on this. He has more to prove than not, and Fresno State can hold out for better. Still, with the name thing, who knows?

Lane Kiffin
Kiffin also has Fresno State ties, and was a backup QB at the school. He has been a disaster of a coach at USC, Tennessee, and with the Raiders, but are his school and California ties enough to draw the Bulldogs in on him? Are we banking that he has changed as a person that much to make Fresno go all in here?Reality Meter: Kiffin will eventually be a head coach again, but I am not certain that it will be here. Like Tedford, it seems to much of a chance to take.

Tim McDonald
McDonald is a current assitant coach with the Buffalo Bills, and played with the 49ers in San Francisco, and was a high school star at Edison High in Fresno. Other than that, he has no real ties with the program. With no coordinator or head coaching experience, this seems like a stab in the dark.Reality Meter: Fairly low on the docket, I'd say. I do not see Fresno State going in a direction of someone who has not been a coordinator or head coach at a successful program. This is just a name grab of a guy who happened to live in town, once upon a time.

Ed Orgeron
Orgeron, the king of interim coaches, is back at it again at LSU after the firing if Les Miles. Here is the thing. Orgeron is succeeding at LSU, and if they cannot get Tom Herman or Jimbo Fisher, LSU may just stay in house with Orgeron.Reality Meter: Not too much of a chance on this one. Seems like wishful thinking.

John Baxter
Baxter was an assistant for years at Fresno State, and lost out last time to DeRuyter. Although just a special teams coach with the Trojans, he is one of the best in the business, and his ties here are deep.Reality Meter: Fairly high, and I would place him as my first true candidate on this list. Mark this one down.

Tim Drevno
Drevno is the current OC at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh. With the Wolverines rolling in the direction of a playoff appearance this season, Drevno may be in demand, but Fresno State may not be on his radar. He has no real ties here, and the closest he has been is an assistant at USC.Reality Meter: Very low on this name. He may be a better fit at Purdue.

Matt Wells
I will give you that Fresno State is probably a slightly better gig in the Mountain West than Utah State, based on history and tradition, but this name seems like it was just thrown against a wall. The other issue is that the Wells star is dimming by the minute, and Utah State is slowly sinking back into the conference abyss.Reality Meter: As interested as Wells may be in this gig, or not, Fresno State needs to hold out for better. Mark this name off the list.

Justin Wilcox
Wilcox ties in here with Bartko and Oregon. Wilcox knows Bartko from his days playing with the Ducks while Bartko was working in Eugene. I am not certain with the degree of which they know each other, but one would think that there is a relationship to some degree. Wilcox has been up and down, but he is sky high right now as DC at Wisconsin, and has one of the best defenses in college football going.Reality Meter: Yes, he is a solid candidate here, if Fresno State can get him. His value is increasing weekly, but go ahead and put Wilcox with Baxter on this list.

Doug Nussmeier
Nussmeier is a former OC, and this job would seem to fit him like a glove. He is the current OC at Florida, and has revived some offense in a program lacking it the last several years. If he can recruit a decent DC to work for him, and get some solid recruiters in his camp, he may be a home run here.Reality Meter: Very high. They should get after him early in the process, because he may be a commodity, especially if the Gators win the SEC East. Call him candidate 3.

Pete Kwiatkowski
He is currently the DC at Washington, and is doing a bang up job in Seattle with the Huskies, who may be on their way to the final four, if they win out. He has been around a while, but I don't see enough of a tie here. That may be his allure.Reality Meter: Considering what he has done at Washington, call him candidate 4. What the hell.

DeWayne Walker
He is the current DB coach for the Jaguars, and is the former DC at UCLA. He was also a former head coach at New Mexico State. I've met him, and considered him to be a disingenuous individual, who walked out of the dinner at the final WAC media days not 15 seconds after he and his players walked in. He largely failed at NMSU, pouted somewhat when he was not hired at UCLA as head coach rather than Rick Neuheisel, and really is not a guy who should be a head coach, unless you like a guy who overloads his roster with JC recruits for no apparent reason.Reality Meter: If you like this candidate, I am sure I can find a wonderful used Yugo I could sell you. Strike him from the list.

Tim Skipper
He is a former player at Fresno State, and is the current RB coach at Florida. He is well thought of at Fresno State, but other than that, he really does not have the kind of resume that makes him a hot target.Reality Meter: They may offer him an interview to be nice to an alum, but I can't see this going beyond that. Mark him as a mild candidate, but not a serious one.

Kelly Skipper
Kelly has been an assistant all over the place for years, and again, is a former Bulldog. He has never risen much beyond position coach anywhere he has been, however, and that's not a shining resume piece.Reality Meter: Like Tim, gets a kicking of the tires, but I cannot see it going any farther than that.

Mike Martz
The former St. Louis Rams coach is on this list. Seriously. Remember, this is the Fresno Bee, not me.Reality Meter: No freaking chance.

Trent Dilfer
Because he is qualified, right? This list started getting to the point where anyone who once used a public bathroom on campus was considered a candidate.Reality Meter: Two headed Martians are more real. I heard Mike Strahan got freed up from "Michael and Kelly Live!" Let's call his ass up!

Jake Spavital
He is the current OC at California. He knows nothing of defense. Defense is a major problem at Fresno State.Reality Meter: NEXT!

Steve Sarkisian
Sark after Dark is currently an offensive analyst working at Alabama, making $35,000 per year. He'd take a pee wee job at this point, but his unhinged alcoholism, which has not really been officially treated, is a concern so huge, that I would never make him the leader of men at a one man stage play.Reality Meter: Whoever came up with this name should be fired on the spot.

Noel Mazzone
Mazzone is the former OC at UCLA, and is currently at Texas A&M. When faced with a serious challenge, his offense went unhinged against Alabama. At UCLA, he wasted 3 years of Brett Hundley, and one year of Josh Rosen. Hundley was so flawed by Mazzone's N Zone offense that he fell to the 5th round of the draft after long being considered a first rounder, and Alex Van Pelt had to strip him to the bone and rebuild him because of all of his bad habits learned under Mazzone and his son Taylor. Rosen regressed as last season progressed, again, under Mazzone, and Jim Mora made no effort to retain his services, which led him to Texas A&M, who needs QBs so badly they hitched their wagon to Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight, who, as fate would have it, is regressing as the season wears on. Mazzone also disrespected the nation's top dual threat recruit so badly (Tate Martell of Las Vegas Bishop Gorman), that Martell, and several other high profile recruits decommitted from next year's class. With recruiting issues aplenty at Fresno State, Mazzone would be a disaster here.Reality Meter: Believe me when I tell you that you would rather shoot yourself in the face.

Major Applewhite
Applewhite has been attached to open jobs for years now, but he is only being taken seriously right now. If Tom Herman leaves Houston for Texas, which is the rumor, Applewhile may just stay behind and take over at Houston, or he could screwed again, as he has been several times in the past. His time seems to be coming, but he is also getting to that area where once you are a candidate so many times, and don't get hired, your value starts to slide.Reality Meter: Make him an official candidate, but I am not sure he will be available to interview.

This concludes the Fresno Bee list, but there are others. Let me continue with a list by Bruce Feldman, of CBS Sports:

Jeff Tedford
Read my comments above on Tedford, but he worked with Bartko at Cal, which is why I can see Bartko running far away. Tedford has kids in Fresno, and was in town recently, but Bartko denied meeting with him, and claims that hey have not talked in years.Reality Meter: Not very

Lane Kiffin
This name matches the Bee's list, but again, I am not certain about this name on the list.Reality Meter: Not sure that he fits, at least in his mind.

Ed Orgeron
Again, matches the list, but will not be available.Reality Meter: None

Nussmeier, Drevno, Wilcox, and Baxter are also on his list, which means that someone just copied a segment of someone else's list.

And finally, there is a move that seems to make the most sense, if it can come to fruition, and this was mentioned by Dan Wolken at USA Today. He has circulated a story that because of Bartko and his Oregon ties, if Oregon should fire Mark Helfrich, which is a near certainty at this point, Bartko would bounce Helfrich to the top of his list of candidates. Helfrich's defense is a certified train wreck at Oregon, but this could be an interesting development moving forward, and Helfrich would become an absolute certainty as a candidate for this job.

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The Bilo Poll (Power Ratings System) and How It Works

This is not a standard poll, nor is it a popularity contest. It has the ability to make people very happy or very upset. Here is how it works:

You gain positive points for the following:

Winning, winning on the road, winning against teams ranked in the top 35 of this poll, if below the FBS points for beating a higher classification, margin of victory.

You lose points for the following:

Losing, losing at home, losing to teams not in the top 35 of this poll, losing to teams in lower classifications, and margin of loss.

If you are an FCS (1-AA) school or lower, and you beat a team that is in a higher classification, then your point total for the win category doubles, but if you lose to a higher classification team, your total is zeroed out, and the game is treated like a bye week.

If you beat a team from a lower classification, you only obtain points for margin of victory, nothing else.

If you lose to a lower classification team, your points for the loss double.