World Bank Blogshttp://blogs.worldbank.org/planet.xml
IBRD and IDA: Working for a World Free of Poverty.enWhat Super Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines told us about building back betterhttp://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/what-super-typhoon-yolanda-philippines-told-us-about-building-back-better
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[[tweetable]]The Philippines is increasingly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards.[[/tweetable]]<br />
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Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), which struck the country in 2013, was considered one of the strongest tropical storms ever to make landfall (at 380 kilometer / hour wind gusts). It caused over 6,300 fatalities and affected 1,472,251 families in 171 cities and municipalities across the 14 provinces in 6 regions. Total damage and loss was estimated at $12.9 billion (<a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/reconstruction-assistance-yolanda-ray">Reconstruction Assistance on Yolanda 2013</a>).<br />
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The World Bank <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28540">assessed the post-Yolanda rehabilitation and recovery efforts</a>, and this has resulted in the following recommendations:
<ol>
<li>
Establish a disaster management agency with a stronger mandate;</li>
<li>
Institutionalize coordination mechanisms among government and stakeholders;</li>
<li>
Establish clear recovery policies, effective implementation arrangements, and pre-disaster baseline data;</li>
<li>
Develop a standard disaster rehabilitation and recovery framework;</li>
<li>
Promote transparency and accountability by developing an effective communications strategy and interoperable monitoring systems; and</li>
<li>
Identify available financing options, guidelines to access funds, and emergency procurement procedures.</li>
</ol>
<div style="padding-bottom:0px; width:210px; float:right; height:165px; margin-left:8px">
<img alt="" height="118" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/asset_3.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="200" /><br />
<img alt="" height="5" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/teal-square-resized-high.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="12" /><strong> <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/introducing-our-new-sustainable-communities-blog-series" style="color: #39B54A; font-size: 12px; text-decoration: none" target="_blank">About this series</a></strong><br />
<img alt="" height="5" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/teal-square-resized-high.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="12" /><strong> <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/category/tags/sustainable-communities" style="color: #39B54A; font-size: 12px; text-decoration: none" target="_blank">More blog posts</a></strong></div>
In this video, Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez (<a href="http://twitter.com/Ede_WBG">@Ede_WBG</a>), Senior Director of the World Bank’s Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice and Lesley Cordero, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist in the World Bank’s Philippine office, discuss the [[tweetable]]lessons learned from Typhoon Yolanda and how the Philippine government and other countries can better respond to future disasters.[[/tweetable]]<br />
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As highlighted in the video, [[tweetable]]one of the key lessons in post-disaster reconstruction is how to effectively communicate risks and manage expectations before, during, and after a disaster.[[/tweetable]] Check out our <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28540">policy note</a> on post-Yolanda rehabilitation and recovery efforts to learn more about the World Bank’s strategic recommendations and operational tools for the Philippine government.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>Related: </strong>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.gfdrr.org/en/disaster-recovery-frameworks">GFDRR Guide to Developing Disaster Recovery Frameworks</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://understandrisk.org/ur2018-blogs/">Blog posts on communicating disaster risk</a></li>
<li>
Subscribe&nbsp;to our&nbsp;<a href="http://worldbank.us11.list-manage2.com/subscribe?u=312c2f5242cf2515af8c8f95b&amp;id=0e322de7bf&amp;CID=SURR_WBGCitiesEN_D_EXT">Sustainable Communities&nbsp;newsletter</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://flipboard.com/@eijjasz">Flipboard</a>&nbsp;magazine</li>
<li>
Follow&nbsp;<a href="http://twitter.com/WBG_Cities">@WBG_Cities</a>&nbsp;on Twitter</li>
</ul>
Thu, 24 May 2018 15:00:00 -0400Ede Ijjasz-VasquezThe 2018 Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals: an all-new visual guide to data and development http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/2018-atlas-sustainable-development-goals-all-new-visual-guide-data-and-development
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<a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/"><img alt="" height="450" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg-atlas-2018-cover-400px.png" title="" width="315" /></a>
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<a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29788/9781464812507.pdf?sequence=5&amp;isAllowed=y">Download PDF (30Mb)</a> / <a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/">View Online</a></figcaption>
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<p>
<em><span>“The World Bank is one of the world’s largest producers of development data and research. But our responsibility does not stop with making these global public goods available; we need to make them understandable to a general audience. </span></em></p>
<p>
<em><span>When both the public and policy makers share an evidence-based view of the world, real advances in social and economic development, such as achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), become possible.” - </span></em><a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/introduction.html" rel="nofollow"><em>Shanta Devarajan</em></a></p>
<p>
<span>We’re pleased to release the </span><a href="http://data.worldbank.org/sdgatlas" rel="nofollow">2018 Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals</a>. With over 180 maps and charts, the <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29788" rel="nofollow">new publication</a> shows the progress societies are making towards the <a href="http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html" rel="nofollow">17 SDGs</a>.</p>
<p>
<span>It’s filled with annotated data visualizations, which can be reproducibly built from source code and data. You can view the </span><a href="http://data.worldbank.org/sdgatlas" rel="nofollow">SDG Atlas online</a>, <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29788/9781464812507.pdf?sequence=5&amp;isAllowed=y" rel="nofollow">download the PDF publication</a> (30Mb), and access the <a href="https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/atlas-sustainable-development-goals-2018-world-development-indicators" rel="nofollow">data</a> and <a href="https://github.com/worldbank/sdgatlas2018" rel="nofollow">source code</a> behind the figures.</p>
<p>
<span>This Atlas would not be possible without the efforts of statisticians and data scientists working in national and international agencies around the world. It is produced in collaboration with the professionals across the World Bank’s data and research groups, and our sectoral global practices.</span><br />
&nbsp;</p>
<h2 style="font-family: Sans-Serif; font-size: 125%; font-weight: bold;">
Trends and analysis for the 17 SDGs</h2>
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<p>
<span>The Atlas draws on </span><a href="https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators" rel="nofollow">World Development Indicators</a>, a database of over 1,400 indicators for more than 220 economies, many going back over 50 years. For example, the chapter on <a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/SDG-04-quality-education.html" rel="nofollow">SDG4</a> includes data from the <a href="http://uis.unesco.org/" rel="nofollow">UNESCO Institute for Statistics </a>on education and its impact around the world.</p>
<p>
<span>Throughout the Atlas, data are presented by country, region and income group and often disaggregated by sex, wealth and geography.</span></p>
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<img alt="" height="683" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg4-5-fig7.png" title="" width="1024" /></div>
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<span>The Atlas also explores new data from scientists and researchers where standards for measuring SDG targets are still being developed. For example, the chapter on </span><a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/SDG-14-life-below-water.html" rel="nofollow">SDG14</a> features research led by <a href="http://globalfishingwatch.org/" rel="nofollow">Global Fishing Watch</a>, published this year in <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6378/904" rel="nofollow">Science</a>. Their team has tracked over 70,000 industrial fishing vessels from 2012 to 2016, processed 22 billion automatic identification system messages to map and quantify fishing around the world.</p>
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<img alt="" height="821" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg14-4-fig1.png" title="" width="1024" /></div>
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<h2 style="font-family: Sans-Serif; font-size: 125%; font-weight: bold;">
<span>New data and methods for measuring development </span></h2>
<p>
<span>In addition to trends, the Atlas discusses measurement issues. For example new, more granular definitions of access to water and sanitation presented in </span><a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/SDG-06-clean-water-and-sanitation.html" rel="nofollow">SDG6</a> show that while almost 90 percent of the world has access to “at least basic” water - only 71 percent of access water that’s considered “safely managed”, being both readily available and free from contamination.<br />
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<img alt="" height="536" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg6-1-fig1.png" title="" width="1024" /></div>
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<span>In </span><a href="http://datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/SDG-08-decent-work-and-economic-growth.html" rel="nofollow">SDG8</a>, new data from the <a href="https://globalfindex.worldbank.org/" rel="nofollow">Global Findex Database</a> shows that 69 percent of adults around the world have an account at a financial institution or with a mobile money provider. But some 1.7 billion people still lack an account, and access to accounts varies widely by region, and by age, education, sex and wealth.<br />
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<span><img alt="" height="712" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg8-10-fig8.png" title="" width="1024" /></span>
<p>
<br />
<span><a href="http:/datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/SDG-03-good-health-and-well-being.html" rel="nofollow">SDG3</a></span> &nbsp;features recently released data on <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/universalhealthcoverage/publication/tracking-universal-health-coverage-2017-global-monitoring-report" rel="nofollow">Universal Health Coverage</a> which shows that globally, in 2010, over 800 million people spent more than 10 percent of their household budgets on healthcare.<br />
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<div style="text-align:center">
<img alt="" height="730" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg3-8-fig9.png" title="" width="1024" /></div>
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<h2 style="font-family: Sans-Serif; font-size: 125%; font-weight: bold;">
<span>Open data and open code</span></h2>
<p>
<span>The majority of the Atlas is produced using the statistical programming language R and the ggplot graphics library. The code used to produce each graphic is available on </span><a href="https://github.com/worldbank/sdgatlas2018" rel="nofollow">github</a> and you can <a href="https://github.com/worldbank/sdgatlas2018/blob/master/sdg11.R#L15-L72" rel="nofollow">view source code for individual figures</a> such as the one below.</p>
<div style="text-align:center">
<img alt="" height="443" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/files/opendata/sdg11-fig1.png" title="" width="1024" /></div>
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<p>
<span>Working this way helps users to understand how a particular figure was derived, what transformations were made to the data and with what assumptions. It also allows figures to be easily maintained and updated, and for others to take our code and data and adapt it to their needs.</span></p>
<p>
<span>Much of the data comes from the </span><a href="https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/889386" rel="nofollow">World Bank Data API</a>, and a snapshot of the API data used in the publication, as well as data from other sources is included in the <a href="https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/atlas-sustainable-development-goals-2018-world-development-indicators" rel="nofollow">Bank’s Data Catalog.</a></p>
<p>
<span>Stay tuned for a separate blog post on what the team learned by setting out to make a fully reproducible publication, and how we’ve addressed the challenges inherent to the process.</span></p>
<div>
&nbsp;</div>
</div>
Thu, 24 May 2018 14:00:00 -0400World Bank Data TeamPromoting better nutrition in Bhutanhttp://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/promoting-better-nutrition-bhutan
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<img alt=" Izabela Leao / World Bank" height="491" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/files/endpovertyinsouthasia/promoting-better-nutrition-in-bhutan-blog.jpg" title=" Izabela Leao / World Bank" width="680" />
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School children singing and dancing in Samtse Dzongkhag. Photo Credit: Izabela Leao / World Bank</figcaption>
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<p>
Bhutan is no ordinary place.<br />
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A landlocked Himalayan kingdom tucked in a mostly rugged mountainous terrain between India and China, it measures prosperity by assessing its citizens’ level of happiness by way of a <a href="http://www.grossnationalhappiness.com/" rel="nofollow">Gross National Happiness</a> index.<br />
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Equally striking, [[tweetable]]Bhutan’s constitution mandates that 60 percent of its national land be preserved under forest cover, making Bhutan the world’s only carbon-negative country. [[/tweetable]]<br />
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Bhutan’s geography – with land rises ranging from 200 meters in the southern foothills to 7,000 meters in the high northern mountains – consists of three major agro-ecological zones that allow for a rich biodiversity and seasonal foods.<br />
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This natural wealth, however, comes with its caveats as [[tweetable]]Bhutanese living in isolated rural areas can’t access a reliable diverse diet throughout the year.[[/tweetable]]<br />
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"Many families in rural Bhutan practice two meals rather than three meals a day," reports Ms. Kinley Bidha, Tarayana Foundation Field Officer in Samtse Dzongkhag. "Some for cultural reasons, others due to a shortage of food, others due to a shortage of land too farm," she adds.<br />
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[[tweetable]]Overall socio-economic development in the last three decades has led to a rapid improvement in health and nutrition outcomes in Bhutan[[/tweetable]] – the country’s infant mortality rate declined to 30 per 1,000 live births in 2012 down from 90 per 1,000 in 1990; while the rate of stunting in children under 5 years declined 24 percent from 1986 levels.<br />
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Nonetheless, the lack of variety of foods in diet remains a key concern, especially for pregnant and nursing women as well as young children. And while most families feed their children complementary food, fewer than a quarter of parents provide them nutritious meals essential to their health.<br />
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In addition, 67 percent of Bhutanese adults consume less than the recommended five servings (or 400 grams) of fruits and/or vegetables per person a day [National Nutrition Survey (NNS) 2015].<br />
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When consumed, vegetables consist for the most part of two national staples, potatoes and chilies, which hardly provide essential vitamins and minerals.<br />
<br />
Keeping regional variations in mind, between 16 and 34 percent of children under 5 are stunted—or too short for their age—seven percent of children are underweight, 35 percent of children of age 6-59 months and 44 percent of women of reproductive age are either anemic or iron deficient. Exclusive breastfeeding rates for six-month-old children remain at a low 50 percent (NNS, 2015). &nbsp;<br />
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[[tweetable]]Damages caused by malnutrition during pregnancy and the first years of a child’s life are irreversible and contribute to stunting and lower immunological and cognitive development[[/tweetable]], and predispose to adult-onset diseases (including metabolic syndrome).<br />
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Thankfully, [[tweetable]]the negative impact of malnutrition on Bhutan’s economy is now better understood and has become a priority[[/tweetable]] to <a href="http://www.gnhc.gov.bt/en/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/FNS_Policy_Bhutan_Changed.pdf" rel="nofollow">promote its national development</a>.</p>
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<figure class="image">
<img alt=" Izabela Leao / World Bank" height="852" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/files/endpovertyinsouthasia/promoting-better-nutrition-in-bhutan-blog-2.jpg" title=" Izabela Leao / World Bank" width="680" />
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Mother and child in Samtse Dzongkhag. Photo Credit: Izabela Leao / World Bank</figcaption>
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<strong>The 1,000-Day Window of Opportunity</strong><br />
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[[tweetable]]The 1,000 days between a woman’s pregnancy and her child’s second birthday offer a unique window of opportunity to prevent malnutrition, reduce stunting, [[/tweetable]]and optimize a child’s cognitive and physical development.<br />
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A 2014 World Bank report on <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/397081468227331146/pdf/940290BRI00PUB0tion0in0Bhutan0FINAL.pdf" rel="nofollow">Nutrition in Bhutan</a> points out that[[tweetable]] the most important causes of stunting are poor nutrition and care of women before and during pregnancy as reflected in the profound female anemia rates. [[/tweetable]]<br />
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Ongoing efforts are being made to cover these shortcomings and to further improve maternal nutrition, child feeding, and household sanitation.<br />
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To that end, Bhutan’s <a href="http://www.moaf.gov.bt/" rel="nofollow">Ministry of Agriculture and Forests</a> with the collaboration of the <a href="http://www.health.gov.bt/" rel="nofollow">Ministry of Health</a> recently started a <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/safansi#2" rel="nofollow">pilot project</a> to improve nutrition during the 1,000-day window of opportunity in rural households.<br />
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With support from the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/safansi" rel="nofollow">South Asia Food and Nutrition Security Initiative (SAFANSI)</a>, the project will identify change agents and drivers of food habits and engage target groups in exploring innovative behavior change communication interventions in Samtse Dzongkhag – one of the twenty districts in Bhutan.<br />
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<a href="http://www.tarayanafoundation.org/" rel="nofollow">Tarayana Foundation</a>, a local civil society organization will mainly implement the project in collaboration with the government.<br />
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Story-telling will play a central role in promoting care practices and changing healthy and dietary habits and practices. Testimonials, life&nbsp;stories, and images will help convey positive messages—rather than disapprove of bad customs—and thus encourage changes in behavior and practices. Improvement in knowledge, attitudes, and practices amongst project area beneficiaries will be assessed as measures of success.<br />
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&nbsp;Mon, 14 May 2018 16:02:00 -0400Izabela LeaoInvesting in waste management to create job opportunities for Malawi’s Youthhttp://blogs.worldbank.org/nasikiliza/investing-in-waste-management-to-create-job-opportunities-for-malawis-youth
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<img alt="" height="439" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/nasikiliza/files/nasikiliza/images/mw-investing-in-waste-management-to-create-job-opportunities-for-malawis-youth-780x439.jpg" title="" width="780" />
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With increased urbanization, Malawi’s cities produce a high amount of solid waste, but lack the resources to process it all.&nbsp;Photo Credit: Faith Tsoka.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>
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Malawi, a small country in Africa, has a population of over 18 million. According to World Bank estimates, Malawi had 52.2% of the total population between 15 and 64 years as of the beginning of 2017. However, Malawi has a high level of unemployment among the productive population which is largely composed of young people.</p>
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<p>
Like all fast urbanizing cities in the world, cities in Malawi – namely Blantyre, Lilongwe, Zomba and Mzuzu – are challenged by the accumulation of waste due to the increase of their urban population (migration in search of employment) and the limited resources of their public services. On average, these cities produce a high amount of solid waste, of which a very small percentage is processed or treated. For instance, Blantyre city produces 300 tons of waste per day, of which only 28% are collected by the municipality.</p>
<p>
According to the sanitary director at Blantyre City Council (BCC), the council is struggling with its budget to offer appropriate waste management services. Consequently, city residents and companies illegally dump waste in inappropriate places or burn them, thus potentially creating harmful smokes. This background shows that investing in waste management could create and increase the job opportunities among the youth in Malawi.</p>
<h4>
Approach</h4>
<p>
<strong>Establishment of solid waste collection companies</strong></p>
<p>
Youths should establish companies with financial assistance (loans) from the government or development partners to provide solid waste collection services in cities and districts. These companies would be providing the collection services (transportation to dump or processing site) against a fee which would be paid directly by the city residents, companies or by the city councils for a specific area.</p>
<p>
However, there would be a need to train the youths on how to collect and handle the waste in a safe way, and on how to run such companies. Furthermore, the government should also increase funding towards sanitation services. The responsibility of the councils would be to oversee the works which will be done by these companies.</p>
<p>
For instance, Blantyre city has about 55 townships and if every township has one waste collection company (depending on the size of the area) and assuming there are 12 people on average per company, which will approximately equal to the employment of 660 youths. Considering the remaining three cities and 28 districts, clearly more youths would be employed.</p>
<p>
<strong>Establishing waste processing and disposal companies</strong></p>
<p>
The government should encourage or set deliberate policies that would allow private investors to establish waste re-processing and disposal companies. This would ensure that the collected waste would be processed and recycled rather than just dumped, as is the case now, thus creating jobs opportunities for the youths.</p>
<p>
Investing in waste management would not only create job opportunities to the youths in Malawi but also protect the environment and the health of the population.</p>
Wed, 09 May 2018 17:08:00 -0400Hestings M’bawaIndian agriculture at a crossroads: Smart solutions towards doubling farmers’ incomeshttp://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/indian-agriculture-crossroads-smart-solutions-towards-doubling-farmers-incomes
A few weeks ago, I felt a sense of <em>déjà vu. </em>&nbsp;I was at a roundtable on agriculture in Delhi, in the same conference hall where, ten years ago, I participated in the consultations on the Bank’s World Development Report 2008 on <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/5990" rel="nofollow"><em>Agriculture for Development</em></a>.&nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
This time we were discussing [[tweetable]]how India can build a stronger agriculture sector without further harm to the environment or depletion of its natural resources.&nbsp;[[/tweetable]] The high-level dialogue was attended by senior representatives from India’s Niti Aayog, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, leaders of farmers’ associations from Punjab and Haryana, as well as by researchers, academics, and donors.<br />
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We focused on the ‘agriculture-water-energy’ nexus, achieving India’s second green revolution, making agriculture more climate resilient, as well as options to stop the burning of crop residue that is worsening air quality in much of northern India. It was heartening to see the torch bearers of India’s drive towards food security unhesitatingly debate a host of complex and sensitive issues.<br />
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<img alt="" height="453" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/files/endpovertyinsouthasia/in-alamy-stock-photo.jpg" title="" width="680" />
<figcaption>
Photo Credit:&nbsp;Alamy Stock Photo</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>
[[tweetable]]Over the past six decades, India has come a long way from being a famine-prone country to comfortably producing food for 1.25 billion people from finite arable land.[[/tweetable]] Food security firmly in hand, the government is now targeting to double farmers’ incomes by 2022.&nbsp; Today, with rapidly growing urban food markets, India is emerging as a global agricultural powerhouse.</p>
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<p>
At the same time, [[tweetable]]the comprehensive strategy put in place decades ago to usher in the Green Revolution is inadvertently fostering a “perfect storm”[[/tweetable]].[[tweetable]] India is now confronted with the deadly troika of resource degradation, as well as water and air pollution.&nbsp;[[/tweetable]] Given India’s high vulnerability to climate change, these conditions threaten the future sustainability of its food production, the very objective that this bold strategy sought to achieve.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
[[tweetable]]The northern states of Punjab and Haryana, which spearheaded India’s food security, now face multiple environmental problems.[[/tweetable]] Their resource intensive system of rice-wheat production has led to the over-extraction of groundwater, and their imbalanced use of fertilizers has added to soil and water contamination. Recently, the widespread burning of crop residues and its contribution to severe air pollution has attracted both national and global attention. The continuing public procurement of rice and wheat, together with subsidies for fertilizer and energy, and other dis-incentives to use water efficiently - all in the face of a changing climate - have put these states in the eye of a “perfect storm”. &nbsp;<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Not surprisingly, all participants echoed the need for a “paradigm shift” to put Indian agriculture on a more resource efficient and resilient path.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
So, what does this paradigm shift look like?<br />
<br />
<strong>First, measures to conserve natural resources, make agriculture climate-resilient, and reduce agricultural pollution must safeguard farmer welfare and contribute to doubling farmers’ incomes.</strong>&nbsp; For states such as Punjab and Haryana which are at, or near, the production frontier for cereals, the priority is to shift to high-value agriculture and value addition. &nbsp;<strong>Simultaneously,</strong> <strong>to maintain the country’s food security, public procurement policy will need to be geographically reoriented to areas that are ecologically suited for the cultivation of these staples</strong>. The need for such realignment has long been recognized. &nbsp;The country’s current push for “doubling farmer incomes” provides an opportunity to finally make this happen.&nbsp;<br />
<br />
Second, <strong>technical solutions for conservation and climate-resilient agriculture are readily available. But more effort must be put into making sure that they are widely adopted.</strong> Leaders of farmers’ associations reminded us that for farmers to embrace eco-friendly technologies, they need to see results on the ground quickly and, to do so, they need the right knowledge and incentives.&nbsp; Thus, to see real impact, any solutions that we offer to farmers must be sensible as well as scalable. &nbsp;On this, I am happy to note that the World Bank has, or is about to, initiate new agriculture projects in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Jharkhand. These projects focus on providing locally-adapted support packages that promote diversification, make extension and knowledge transfer systems more effective, introduce ICT innovations and climate-smart technologies, as well as support enterprise-based models of value chains.<br />
<br />
Third, the consensus around the table was that decision-makers need to <strong>revisit policies so that appropriate incentives are provided to farmers to make the right choices on what to produce and how to produce it</strong>.&nbsp; To this effect, <strong>the distorting effects of water, energy and input subsidies, and price support for rice and wheat were widely acknowledged</strong>. &nbsp;It was widely recognized that <em>now</em> is the time to consider how the support provided to farmers can be redirected to transform the vicious circle of resource degradation into a virtuous circle of rapid and sustainable income growth.&nbsp; On this, India can draw upon lessons from countries that have walked this path before. In the European Union, for instance, the switch from coupled subsidies (earmarked for specific crops and distorted input prices) towards decoupled (income) support has resulted in better environmental stewardship and higher farm incomes.<br />
<br />
Today, Indian agriculture stands at a crossroads. Inaction is not an option. The challenges are multifaceted, but at the same time, smart solutions are available that have the potential to generate triple-wins, that is, increase productivity, enhance climate resilience, and make <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture" rel="nofollow">agriculture climate-smart</a> by reducing damaging emissions. These solutions can be deployed at scale if current farmer support programs are fully aligned with the government’s target to double farmers’ incomes.&nbsp; As at the time of the Green Revolution, taking India’s food system forward will require bold decisions. Now is the time to take them.</p>
Wed, 09 May 2018 07:05:00 -0400Martien van NieuwkoopMaybe Money does Grow on Treeshttp://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/maybe-money-does-grow-trees
Environmental degradation puts livelihoods at risk and the Ghanaian government is determined to fight it. Planting trees is one approach to address soil erosion, topsoil quality and overgrowth of weeds and grass that lead to wildfire. This is why the World Bank’s Sustainable Land and Water Management Project (SLWMP) offers free seedlings to farmers to plant trees at a cost of about $100 per farmer. The question researchers asked at the time of project design was, would free seedlings be enough? Would monetary incentives to farmers be needed for farmers to plant and secure the survival of the required forty trees? The question turned into a Payment for Environmental Services (PES) uniform price auction experiment that would investigate farmers’ reservation prices and willingness to participate. The initial payments to these farmers were set at 380 Ghanaian Cedi (GHS) (or about USD 80) by asking expert opinions from extension workers. It is with this level of financial support that farmers like the one in West Mamprusi District planted their cashew trees in 2016. He is pictured here standing next to his neat row of cashew trees, that are well fenced-in to protect them from animals, with moist soil surrounding the seedlings.&nbsp;<br />
<br />
<img alt="" height="800" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/files/impactevaluations/img_1719_002.png" title="" width="600" /><br />
<em>Photo credit: Paul Christian</em><br />
&nbsp;<br />
The results of the PES experiment showed massive increases in farmer take-up and got the government interested in scaling PES up. The icing on the cake is that the team found a way of expanding the PES component without increasing its cost. The results showed that payments increased household uptake from 18% in the control group, to 28% in the project areas, to 88% in the PES experiment. Such a large increase in uptake was bound to capture government attention and stimulate their willingness to scale up. Yet resource constraints must be contended with as well as thinking about the optimal intervention design for the project overall given differential in costs per farmer and the transaction costs per community.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<img alt="" height="529" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/files/impactevaluations/takeup.jpg" title="" width="800" /><br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong>Is it ever possible to expand the PES component under a fixed budget? </strong>The team used the data obtained through the uniform price auction<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title="">[1]</a> to suggest a way forward. The uniform price auction (UPA) is a tool from behavioral economics that reveals the minimum payment that each farmer would be willing to accept while fixing the amount that the project team will pay farmers.&nbsp; First, farmers are asked to state the <em>minimum </em>price they would accept for planting trees. Once all farmers have stated their bid, the fixed payment amount is revealed, and all farmers who stated a price less than or equal to the project’s agreed price are enrolled in the program and those who stated a higher price are not enrolled. All participating farmers are paid the fixed price, even if their bid was lower (see <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.5.3.113" rel="nofollow">Jack, 2013</a>).<br />
<br />
As it turned out, at the initial payment amount of GHS 380 (the “best guess” from extension workers),&nbsp; almost everyone in the treated communities takes up the program. The near universal popularity of the offer sounds great at first, but the results of the auction show that this payment comes at a high cost: at GHS 380, 94% of farmers who participate in meetings to consider the offers<a href="#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title="">[2]</a> take up the program in those communities, <em>but the vast majority of them would participate for substantially less. </em>Paul Christian explains that<em> “</em>Through a simple simulation, we demonstrated to the government that by lowering payments per farmers to just 200 GHS, they could save 56% of their budget.” Apply those resources to incentivize new communities, and the total number of farmers planting trees would increase by a 68%, a huge margin of improvement.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
<strong><img alt="" height="616" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/files/impactevaluations/auctionbids.jpg" title="" width="847" /></strong><br />
And what about optimal design? This is what the team will be focusing on next by thinking through the next set of operational questions: what is the relationship between per farmer costs and per community transaction costs? Is it better for the project to maximize take up in a few communities and avoid additional transaction costs or expand geographically while incurring those costs? Clearly PES increases costs per farmer by about fifty percent but it also lowers the needs to reach out to more communities to achieve a target number of farmers and a target number of trees. One hypothetical simulation shows that seedlings plus optimally-priced PES dominates seedlings only when transaction costs are in excess of $3,000 per community.<br />
<br />
This said, increasing returns on the PES component alone by 68% is no small feat, especially when all the team used is data on the process of implementation, and evidence on farmers’ participation and willingness to participate. Often when we think of the value of research, we focus on the extensive margin: have the results of a piece of research influenced policy making? This is an example of the intensive margin of being there: having collected data and developed a better understanding of the economic parameters, we can use our presence to help projects understand how to do better, in this case, how to set pricing as to maximize returns to investment. Often thought of as a luxury, research can instead be the bread and butter of development practice.
<div>
&nbsp;
<div>
<a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title="">[1]</a> The experiment involving the UPA auction is described in detail in <a href="http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/780431525212033304/GhanaAuction-2018-05-01-forlink.pdf" rel="nofollow">Van Soest, Turley, Christian, van der Heijden, and Kitessa, 2018.</a></div>
<div>
<a href="#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title="">[2]</a> That 94% leads to 88% percent of households participating because not everyone comes to the meeting to hear the offer.</div>
</div>
Wed, 02 May 2018 12:31:00 -0400Arianna Legovini“The past is never dead. It’s not even past.” – William Faulknerhttp://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/past-never-dead-it-s-not-even-past-william-faulkner
<div>
<figure class="image">
<img alt="Ponto-cho Alley, Kyoto. (Barbara Minguez Garcia / World Bank, 2016)" height="402" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/pontocho-e1524147867741.png" title="Ponto-cho Alley, Kyoto. (Barbara Minguez Garcia / World Bank, 2016)" width="680" />
<figcaption>
<em>Ponto-cho Alley, Kyoto. (Barbara Minguez Garcia / World Bank, 2016)</em></figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<div>
&nbsp;</div>
<p>
<img alt="Ponto-cho map" height="390" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/cultheritage2-e1524147163754.png" style="float:right" title="Ponto-cho map" width="375" />It is 7:45 p.m. in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.japanvisitor.com/kyoto/kyoto-districts/pontocho-kyoto" rel="nofollow">Ponto-cho</a>, the historic narrow alley at the core of the Japanese city of Kyoto. Close to the Kaburenjo Theater – where still today&nbsp;<a href="http://www.unmissablejapan.com/events/miyako-odori" rel="nofollow">Geikos and Maikos</a>&nbsp;(Kyoto Geishas) practice their dances and performances – the traditional adjoining buildings with restaurants and shops are full of guests. Local people, tourists, students… On this Saturday in mid-April, the warm weather brings a lot of people to the streets nearby.</p>
<p>
At 7:46 p.m., a M 5.1 earthquake strikes. Seven seconds of swaying. It doesn’t cause major damage, but it is enough to spread panic among a group of tourists. Screams, shoving, confusion… drinks spill, candles fall, people rush.</p>
<p>
At 7:49 p.m., the fire starts spreading through the old wooden structures, also threatening the historic theater. Access is difficult due to the narrow streets and panicking crowd.</p>
<p>
<strong>What happens next?</strong></p>
<p>
It could be a fire in the Ponto-cho traditional alley. It could be an earthquake shaking the historic center of Kathmandu (Nepal), the archaeological site of Bagan (Myanmar), or the historic town of Amatrice (Italy). It could be Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines or Hurricane Irma in the Caribbean, blasting sites with rain, flooding, and gale-force winds.</p>
<p>
Cultural heritage assets around the world are at risk. They are often vulnerable due to their age, as well as previous interventions and restorations made without disaster risk or overall site stability in mind. Heritage sites reflect legacies, traditions, and identities. With all this, they carry a large cultural and emotional value of what could be lost – certainly beyond the traditional calculus of economic losses.</p>
<p>
In many cases, it is not possible or advisable to conduct reconstruction on cultural heritage sites post-disaster. Therefore, the essence and soul of a cultural heritage site is at risk of being lost forever, making preparedness and preservation even more critical.</p>
<p>
[[tweetable]]<strong>How can we protect these special places and traditions from the threat of natural hazards?</strong>[[/tweetable]]</p>
<figure class="image">
<img alt="A Ponto-cho restaurant affected by a fire in 2016 (left) and Ponto-cho from the river area. (Barbara Minguez Garcia / World Bank)" height="258" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/ponto-cho-restaurant.png" title="A Ponto-cho restaurant affected by a fire in 2016 (left) and Ponto-cho from the river area. (Barbara Minguez Garcia / World Bank)" width="680" />
<figcaption>
<em>A Ponto-cho restaurant affected by a fire in 2016 (left) and view Ponto-cho from the river area.<br />
(Barbara Minguez Garcia / World Bank)</em></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>
[[tweetable]]A disaster risk management approach can be fundamental for preserving heritage sites and – along with them – our human histories.[[/tweetable]] Since such sites are often tourist destinations&nbsp;frequented by people who are unfamiliar with the area, comprehensive risk assessment and preparation can save lives. Unfortunately, there is often a gap in awareness and understanding of disaster risk – among site managers, surrounding communities, and the visiting public, including tourists and pilgrims.</p>
<div style="padding-bottom:0px; width:210px; float:right; height:165px; margin-left:8px">
<img alt="" height="118" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/asset_3.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="200" /><br />
<img alt="" height="5" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/teal-square-resized-high.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="12" /><strong> <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/introducing-our-new-sustainable-communities-blog-series" style="color: #39B54A; font-size: 12px; text-decoration: none" target="_blank">About this series</a></strong><br />
<img alt="" height="5" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/teal-square-resized-high.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="12" /><strong> <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/category/tags/sustainable-communities" style="color: #39B54A; font-size: 12px; text-decoration: none" target="_blank">More blog posts</a></strong></div>
<p>
The first step is to&nbsp;<strong>understand the risk</strong>&nbsp;– to the physical monuments and the integrity of the site, the cultural and economic activity in and around the site, and the well-being of local people and communities. To do this well, the local community – living and working nearby – must be part of the process to identify the risks and then protect and preserve the site, its character, and its integrity.</p>
<p>
This is not easy. [[tweetable]]We do not tend to see or even look for risk around our regular places of work or homes. Even more complicated is communicating risk to others who may only be indirectly affected, such as government officials and decision makers.[[/tweetable]]</p>
<p>
Interactive activities like the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.r-dmuch.jp/en/project/itc/training_guide/sections/section_3/slideshow/2_3/index.html"><strong>Disaster Imagination Game</strong></a>&nbsp;(DIG) can help communities – including neighbors, local authorities, and heritage specialists – to understand and communicate risk. This methodology, developed in Japan, brings together different stakeholders from a historic area to analyze and assess the situation, and then prepare people and places to face possible disasters. Ultimately, they discuss and decide upon potential solutions to avoid or mitigate risk, along with preparedness measures and plans for emergency response.</p>
<p>
This exercise asks participants to reflect on key questions related to a specific cultural heritage risk scenario. For instance, consider the following about your hometown or a place you know well:</p>
<ul>
<li>
What and where are the cultural heritage assets located? Are they structures, or are there also movable assets (e.g. museum artifacts)? Why are they important?</li>
<li>
Are there emergency evacuation routes for people at these sites? How about alternative evacuation routes to access and rescue critical heritage?</li>
<li>
Are you aware of the natural hazards in the area? How about secondary, or cascading, hazards&nbsp;(e.g. fires started after an earthquake)? How could those hazards affect the heritage?</li>
<li>
Who make&nbsp;up the community in the area? Are there elders or people with disabilities? Are there usually many tourists or visitors from out of town?</li>
<li>
What&nbsp;are, therefore, the main potential risks to the heritage sites and artifacts? What&nbsp;measures could or would mitigate those risks?</li>
</ul>
<p>
Interested in how communities are addressing this challenge around the world? Don’t miss this #UR2018 session:</p>
<p>
<strong><a href="https://understandrisk.org/event-session/the-future-of-preserving-the-past/" rel="nofollow">Assessing and communicating risk to cultural heritage: The future of preserving the past</a><br />
Thursday, May 17, 2018 / 11:15 am – 12:45 pm /&nbsp;<a href="http://www.palaciomineria.unam.mx/" rel="nofollow">Palacio de Minería</a></strong></p>
<div>
<em>Read this blog post on the <a href="https://understandrisk.org/cultural-heritage-post-2018/">Understanding Risk website</a>.&nbsp;</em><br />
&nbsp;
<figure class="image">
<img alt="Left: Kaburenjo Theater in Ponto-cho, Right: Kyoto &amp; Firefighting system in Kiyomizudera Temple in Kyoto (BMG, 2016/17)" height="512" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/untitled.png" title="Left: Kaburenjo Theater in Ponto-cho, Right: Kyoto &amp; Firefighting system in Kiyomizudera Temple in Kyoto (BMG, 2016/17)" width="697" />
<figcaption>
Left: Kaburenjo Theater in Ponto-cho, Right: Kyoto &amp; Firefighting system in Kiyomizudera Temple in Kyoto (BMG, 2016/17)</figcaption>
</figure>
<strong>Related:</strong></div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/three-countries-show-why-culture-matters-post-conflict-and-post-disaster-reconstruction-and-recovery">Three countries show why culture matters for post-conflict and post-disaster reconstruction and recovery</a></li>
<li>
<a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/innovating-past-how-create-resilience-through-heritage">Innovating with the past: How to create resilience through heritage</a></li>
<li>
<strong>Subscribe</strong>&nbsp;to our&nbsp;<a href="http://worldbank.us11.list-manage2.com/subscribe?u=312c2f5242cf2515af8c8f95b&amp;id=0e322de7bf&amp;CID=SURR_WBGCitiesEN_D_EXT">Sustainable Communities&nbsp;newsletter</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://flipboard.com/@eijjasz">Flipboard</a>&nbsp;magazine</li>
<li>
<strong>Follow&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://twitter.com/WBG_Cities">@WBG_Cities</a>&nbsp;on Twitter</li>
</ul>
Mon, 30 Apr 2018 17:53:00 -0400Barbara Minguez GarciaMaking schools more resilient in Afghanistanhttp://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/making-schools-more-resilient-afghanistan
<figure class="image">
<img alt=" Rumi Consultancy/ World Bank" height="453" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/files/endpovertyinsouthasia/Afghanistan-photos/afg-blog_safer_schools_inaf.jpg" title=" Rumi Consultancy/ World Bank" width="680" />
<figcaption>
A primary school teacher in western Herat Province is teaching her students numbers with toys. Photo Credit: Rumi Consultancy/World Bank</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>
[[tweetable]]In Afghanistan, access to education has been a successful driver of&nbsp;development over the last seventeen years[[/tweetable]].<br />
<br />
In 2001, one million children--almost none of them girls-- were enrolled in 3,400 schools.&nbsp;In 2015, there was a <a href="http://www.moe.gov.af" rel="nofollow">nine-fold&nbsp;increase </a>in enrolment with more than eight million students in 16,400 schools, of whom almost 40 percent were girls.<br />
<br />
While it's encouraging to see progress in access to education, the quality and safety of the school facilities are not as reassuring&nbsp;[[tweetable]]: One of every two students in Afghanistan learns&nbsp;in overcrowded temporary shelters or in fragile outdoor conditions.[[/tweetable]]<br />
&nbsp;<br />
[[tweetable]]Given Afghanistan's vulnerability to natural disasters, it's urgent to build safer schools and rehabilitate older facilities in order to protect lives.[[/tweetable]]<br />
<br />
If an earthquake were to hit&nbsp;Afghanistan on a school day, 5 million students would be affected.&nbsp;<br />
<br />
In the past, addressing infrastructure resilience has been a challenge since information regarding current and future disaster and climate risk has been extremely limited and fragmented.<br />
<br />
Compounded by decades of conflict, this has undermined Afghanistan's ability to cope and effectively respond to natural disasters.</p>
<!--break-->Thanks to its <a href="http://anafae.af/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/National-Education-Strategic-Plan-NESP-III.pdf" rel="nofollow">National Education Strategic Plan III</a> (NESP), the Government has now made it a priority to provide quality education and respond to the growing demand for new and safe school facilities.&nbsp;<br />
<br />
Between 2015-2030, the plan aims to reach 100 percent enrolment by building 20,000 new schools. The World Bank and other development partners are supporting this effort through the <a href="http://artf.af/" rel="nofollow">Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund</a> (ARTF) by incorporating risks in current and future national and Bank investments.
<figure class="image">
<img alt="Making More Resilient School Facilities in Afghanistan" height="453" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/files/endpovertyinsouthasia/Afghanistan-photos/afg-blog_safer_schools_graph.jpg" title="Making More Resilient School Facilities in Afghanistan" width="680" />
<figcaption>
The number of schools without classroom buildings, highlighting the current deficit in school infrastructure and the significant increase in school construction required to meet the current NESP III target for full enrolment and provision of school buildings at all schools by 2030.</figcaption>
</figure>
<strong>Key facts – needs, challenges and lessons learned<br />
&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong><br />
There is an estimated shortage of 20,000 new schools (2015-2030) that require construction to meet expected demand:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>
[[tweetable]]Of the 16,400 existing schools in Afghanistan, a vast majority are single-story masonry school buildings, that are highly vulnerable to earthquakes[[/tweetable]]. Nearly 90 percent of existing schools were built by the community using unskilled labor and inexperienced construction management</li>
<li>
School site selection is often carried out without appropriate site surveys, which leads to schools being constructed on the least valuable and most exposed land</li>
<li>
The quality of construction is one of the main problems: building designs are often not well communicated from technical experts to construction contractors and don’t appear to be well implemented on-site</li>
<li>
Similarly, safety issues pose significant limitations to conduct a proper inventory and inspection of school infrastructure as well as implement training and engineers</li>
<li>
[[tweetable]]With a large building stock of vulnerable school buildings, there is currently no evidence of any existing retrofitting practices for schools in Afghanistan[[/tweetable]]</li>
</ul>
<strong>Next steps</strong><br />
<br />
The World Bank and other development partners are proactively supporting the Government of Afghanistan in addressing these challenges. In 2017, a <a href="https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/drp_afghanistan.pdf" rel="nofollow">national multi-hazard risk assessment and risk profiles</a> were completed. These tools are the first of its kind in a fragile state and have already contributed to raising awareness on current and future disaster risk in Afghanistan.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, with support from the <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/disasterriskmanagement/brief/global-program-for-safer-schools" rel="nofollow">Global Program for Safer Schools</a> (GPSS) and the <a href="https://www.gfdrr.org/" rel="nofollow">Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery</a> (GFDRR), and in close collaboration with the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) and the Ministry of Education, the World Bank is now conducting a disaster risk analysis for the education sector, which will provide training, recommendations on guidelines for safer (new) construction, as well as retrofitting options (if any) for existing schools to reach the minimum life-safety standards.Sun, 29 Apr 2018 10:30:00 -0400Julian PalmaGo with the flow – adaptive management for urban flood riskhttp://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/go-flow-adaptive-management-urban-flood-risk
<div>
<img alt="Photo: Flooding in Yangon. Source: Flickr" height="455" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/flood.jpg" title="Photo: Flooding in Yangon. Source: Flickr" width="680" /></div>
<p>
<br />
<strong>The future is uncertain.</strong>&nbsp;It’s hard to know exactly how our climate will change. That means there is also deep uncertainty around its impacts on flooding, the most prevalent disaster worldwide. [[tweetable]]Floods account for 43% of all recorded disaster events in the past 20 years. Will climate change exacerbate flooding events?[[/tweetable]] How much will sea level rise? How extreme will rainfall be?</p>
<p>
What we do know is that the best way to cope with uncertainty is&nbsp;<em>flexibility</em>.</p>
<p>
While it may be difficult to predict impacts, we can – and must – take action. Growing uncertainty means preparation is even more urgent. [[tweetable]]To meet future challenges, we need adaptable urban flood management today.[[/tweetable]]</p>
<!--break-->
<p>
Most flood management actions tend to be large, costly investments that have lasting consequences for society, such as the construction of enormous dams and dredging of drainage channels. Additionally, flood management plans are typically crafted to operate within a narrow range of conditions. This traditional approach to flood management – based on the assumption of a more-or-less stationary climate – is quickly losing ground. We need robust and flexible measures to deal with urban floods.</p>
<p>
Coupled with the dynamic nature of cities and societies, [[tweetable]]climate uncertainties complicate flood management decisions. The best way to deal with uncertainty is to master the art of flexibility[[/tweetable]] – developing measures and flood defenses that can evolve over time — to prepare for a wide range of plausible outcomes from the start.</p>
<p>
Several approaches and tools have emerged in recent years to better support decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty. One such approach is the&nbsp;<a href="https://publicwiki.deltares.nl/display/AP/Dynamic+Adaptive+Policy+Pathways" rel="nofollow">Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach</a>, which supports the development of an urban flood management plan that can deal with conditions of deep uncertainty.</p>
<div style="padding-bottom:0px; width:210px; float:right; height:165px; margin-left:8px">
<img alt="" height="118" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/asset_3.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="200" /><br />
<img alt="" height="5" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/teal-square-resized-high.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="12" /><strong> <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/introducing-our-new-sustainable-communities-blog-series" style="color: #39B54A; font-size: 12px; text-decoration: none" target="_blank">About this series</a></strong><br />
<img alt="" height="5" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/teal-square-resized-high.png" style="border:1px solid #fff !important;" title="" width="12" /><strong> <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/category/tags/sustainable-communities" style="color: #39B54A; font-size: 12px; text-decoration: none" target="_blank">More blog posts</a></strong></div>
<p>
<strong><em>What is an "adaptive pathway approach"?</em></strong></p>
<p>
As the saying goes, “All roads lead to Rome.” The basic idea behind adaptive planning is to generate a wide array of "pathways"&nbsp;through which policy objectives are achieved under changing climate and socio-economic conditions. Three key elements are central to the adaptation pathways concept:</p>
<ol>
<li>
responses to changes that are effective under the widest set of all plausible future scenarios;</li>
<li>
responses do not foreclose future options or unnecessarily constrain future choice;</li>
<li>
relevant changes are foreseen through targeted monitoring and scenarios of the future are continuously being reassessed.</li>
</ol>
<p>
Mapping possible "pathways"&nbsp;allows users to plan a journey towards sustainable urban flood management by exploring multiple routes alongside each other, all while considering costs and consequences. Each adaptation pathway consists of a series of actions. If circumstances change along the way, you can change your route by switching or adding actions so that you ultimately achieve your goal.</p>
<p>
Pathways differ according to the actions involved, their resulting benefits, and the required investments.&nbsp;Some pathways are more robust, while others are flexible. The ultimate choice depends on the stakeholder preference and the resources available.<br />
&nbsp;</p>
<figure class="image">
<img alt="" height="426" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/gwtf1-e1524166894544.png" title=" The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach" width="585" />
<figcaption>
<em><strong>Figure 1</strong>: The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach</em></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>
The different options have one thing in common: Each pathway results in an urban flood management strategy that is effective at any point in time between now and the distant future. This approach allows us to plan without running the risk of regret doing too little too late or too much too early.&nbsp;<em>Figure 1</em>&nbsp;illustrates the different steps in the DAPP approach.</p>
<p>
<strong><em>How has this approach been applied?</em></strong></p>
<p>
<a href="https://www.deltares.nl/en/projects/deltaprogram/" rel="nofollow"><strong>The Netherlands Delta Program</strong></a>&nbsp;is a good example of how the Dutch adopted an adaptive approach towards flood management. They shifted from a basic "predict and act"&nbsp;system to one that involves anticipating the future and adapting as circumstances change.&nbsp;<em>Figure 2</em>&nbsp;shows the adaptive pathway map that has been developed for the city of Rotterdam in order to identify the best flood management actions to pursue at different time stages.<br />
&nbsp;</p>
<figure class="image">
<img alt="" height="425" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/gwtf2-e1524166724746-700x438.png" title=" Adaptation pathway map for flood risk management in the Rotterdam area (Delta Programme 2014)" width="680" />
<figcaption>
<em><strong>Figure 2:</strong>&nbsp;Adaptation pathway map for flood risk management in the Rotterdam area (Delta Programme 2014)</em></figcaption>
</figure>
<a href="https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/uploads/wrr_reeder_and_ranger_uncertainty.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong>Managing flood risk in Thames Estuary, UK</strong></a>&nbsp;– In the UK, the use of adaptation pathways was pioneered by the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project which produced a plan for managing tidal flood risk in the Thames estuary and London. The TE2100 plan has a set of options for adaptation pathways (see Figure 3) that can cope with increases in maximum water levels up to a worst-case scenario by 2100. The preferred pathway identified is structured as a staged long-term modification of the Thames Barrier combined with local measures to manage fluvial and pluvial flooding – including making space for water, local flood defenses, building resilience measures, flood forecasting, and emergency planning. TE2100 sets a long-term strategic vision for how London can adapt, and establishes the need for transformational change in the long term.<br />
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<figure class="image">
<img alt="" height="478" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/files/sustainablecities/gwtffigure3-700x492.png" title="" width="680" />
<figcaption>
<strong><em>Figure 3:&nbsp;</em></strong><em>Adaptation pathway map for the Thames Estuary – shows the high-level adaptation options and pathways developed by TE2100 (y-axis) relative to threshold level increase in extreme water level (x-axis). The light blue line illustrates a possible ‘route’ where a decision maker would initially follow HLO2, then switch to HLO4 if sea level were to increase faster than predicted.</em></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>
<strong>Curious to learn to use the DAPP approach and Adaptation Pathway Mapping tool?</strong>&nbsp;Join the 2018&nbsp;<a href="https://understandrisk.org/event/ur2018/" rel="nofollow"><strong>Understanding Risk Forum</strong></a>&nbsp;technical session<strong>:&nbsp;<em><a href="https://understandrisk.org/event-session/go-with-the-flow/" rel="nofollow">Assessing Urban Flood Risk: Going with the Flow</a></em></strong><strong>.</strong>&nbsp; In this session, we will facilitate dynamic discussions and interactive activities to show how this approach works and demonstrate its applicability in different cities.</p>
<p>
<strong>Come and join us on the journey toward sustainable urban flood management!</strong><br />
<br />
<em>Read this blog post on the <a href="https://understandrisk.org/adaptive-management-urban-flood-risk/">Understanding Risk</a> website.&nbsp;&nbsp;</em><br />
<br />
<strong>Related:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Subscribe</strong>&nbsp;to our&nbsp;<a href="http://worldbank.us11.list-manage2.com/subscribe?u=312c2f5242cf2515af8c8f95b&amp;id=0e322de7bf&amp;CID=SURR_WBGCitiesEN_D_EXT">Sustainable Communities&nbsp;newsletter</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://flipboard.com/@eijjasz">Flipboard</a>&nbsp;magazine</li>
<li>
<strong>Follow&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://twitter.com/WBG_Cities">@WBG_Cities</a>&nbsp;on Twitter</li>
</ul>
Fri, 27 Apr 2018 14:00:00 -0400Adeline ChoyThe future of transport is here. Are you ready?http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/future-transport-here-are-you-ready
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<img alt="" height="373" src="https://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/files/transport/cn-maglev-shanghai-max-talbot-minkin-flickr.jpg" title="" width="665" />
<figcaption>
Photo: <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/maxtm/6823667554/">Max Talbot-Minkin/Flickr</a></figcaption>
</figure>
Technology is transforming transport with a speed and scale that are hard to comprehend. The transport systems of tomorrow will be <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/traffic-jams-pollution-road-crashes-can-technology-end-woes-urban-transport" rel="nofollow">connected, data-driven, shared, on-demand, electric, and highly automated</a>. Ideas are moving swiftly from conception, research and design, testbed to early adoption, and, finally, mass acceptance. And according to projections, the pace of innovation is only going to accelerate.<br />
<br />
Autonomous cars are expected to comprise about <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609450/autonomous-vehicles-are-you-ready-for-the-new-ride/" rel="nofollow">25% of the global market by 2040</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/04/air-taxis-we-have-lift-off-airbus-vahana-ehang-volocopter-uber-elevate-lilium" rel="nofollow">Flying taxis</a> are already tested in Dubai. <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/africas-delivery-drones-are-zipping-past-the-us/" rel="nofollow">Cargo drones</a> will become more economical than motorcycle delivery by 2020. Three <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/0/hyperloop-will-future-transport/" rel="nofollow">Hyperloop</a> systems are expected by 2021. <a href="https://www.thenational.ae/business/japan-bites-bullet-with-maglev-trains-1.86709" rel="nofollow">Maglev trains</a> are already operating in Japan, South Korea, and China, and being constructed or planned in Europe, Asia, Australia, and the USA. <a href="https://www.winnesota.com/blockchain" rel="nofollow">Blockchain technology</a> has already been used to streamline the procedures for shipping exports, reducing the processing and handling times for key documents, increasing efficiency and reliability,<br />
<!--break--><br />
<strong>Why the sudden wave of innovation?</strong><br />
<br />
Several factors are contributing to this tidal wave of disruption and innovation:
<ol>
<li>
Hyper digital connectivity: advances from 3G to 4G and now 5G technologies, free internet initiatives, expansion of internet access even in remote areas…. &nbsp;</li>
<li>
The rise of the shared economy (ride-sharing), electrification, and automation</li>
<li>
Sophisticated data collection, advanced analytics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things</li>
<li>
Increasing pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of transport in the face of climate change</li>
<li>
Socioeconomic and geographic trends, including rising wages, increasing urbanization and congestion, as well as an aging population.</li>
<li>
An enabling industrial environment: tech companies’ ability to access significant capital, knowledge, and technology creates the right conditions for innovation.</li>
</ol>
How quickly these technologies spread will depend on a number of variables: How long will it take before these innovations become not just technically feasible but also safe and scalable for mass adoption? How fast will consumers and regulators accept and adapt to these changes? But in any case, it is pretty safe to assume that change will occur faster that we expect it to.<br />
<br />
<strong>Disruptive technology: Good or bad news?</strong><br />
<br />
In the best-case scenario, there will be very little incentive for people to own a car, as vehicle ownership will take a back seat to Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Ride-hailing vehicles will more frequently be shared by multiple passengers at the same time, leading to the emergence of semi-public transport systems. Congestion will be relieved: MIT estimates <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609450/autonomous-vehicles-are-you-ready-for-the-new-ride/" rel="nofollow">autonomous vehicles could reduce the demand for private vehicles by 80%</a>. Energy demand and GHG emissions could be greatly reduced depending on the rate of adoption of autonomous and electric vehicles. Door-to-door commuting times will be shortened drastically, as new high-efficiency modes come into play.<br />
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In the shipping and logistics sector, technology will cut red tape and dramatically reduce the administrative cost of clearing shipments from the producer all the way to the final importer—which today makes up about 20% of the total cost of moving a container.<br />
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However, these disruptive technologies could also exacerbate existing transport and land use problems, and create new challenges:
<ul>
<li>
By removing some of the key constraints of commuting, new transport solutions will lessen the appeal of building compact cities where people live close to jobs and services, instead paving the way for more and more urban sprawl.</li>
<li>
The rise of shared and autonomous vehicles also means parking and speeding tickets might someday become a thing of the past—which may not be bad news in itself, but will deprive governments of two significant revenue sources.</li>
<li>
Land use patterns will change drastically as removing the disincentives to travel will spur more sprawl and city growth in the suburbs. Governments in turn will need to build more intelligent transport infrastructure to respond to the new connectivity needs of its citizens. At the same time governments and cities will need to seek new revenues, as it replaces traditional income sources such as parking, speeding ticket revenues.</li>
<li>
Safety of the new technology e.g. autonomous vehicles will be a continued concern;</li>
<li>
Like any other digitally-enabled technology, smart and connected transport systems are vulnerable to cyberattacks and privacy breaches.</li>
<li>
Innovation will transform many industries and labor markets. To avoid adverse impacts, it is essential for countries to plan ahead and develop the right skills for their workforce.</li>
</ul>
<strong>How should we respond?</strong><br />
<br />
This new era of disruptive technology will require drastic changes in regulation, and, more importantly, will require that regulation be more responsive to quickly changing environments.<br />
<br />
Some of the ways we should respond are increasingly clear:
<ul>
<li>
Be careful about spending large sums of money on “stranded assets” that could become prematurely outdated;</li>
<li>
Incorporate low-hanging fruit technologies into World Bank projects (apps, open-source platforms, drones, intelligent transport systems);</li>
<li>
Encourage countries to train their people on the technologies of the future; in that respect, education in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) is going to be more critical than ever;</li>
<li>
Prepare the regulatory framework to keep pace with change;</li>
<li>
Make sure people in both developed and developing countries can reap the benefits of technological innovation; and</li>
<li>
Partner with the private sector and learning institutions to research, document, and implement new innovations.</li>
</ul>
Disruptive technologies will completely change mobility, and will do so faster than we even expect. Of course, we can’t predict with pinpoint accuracy what innovation will mean for transport. But we can stand ready and plan ahead to make sure we make the most of whatever the future has in store.<br />
&nbsp;Thu, 26 Apr 2018 19:55:00 -0400Stephen Muzira