Is LeBron Getting Lucky on Defense?

LeBron is widely regarded as the best wing defender in the NBA. But has he actually been getting lucky on defense over the last two years? Wait, LeBron getting lucky on defense? The man who has inspired a video on his chasedown blocks?

That can’t be right, can it?

at Hickory High, Ian Levy calculates Expected Points per Shot (XPPS) based on shot locations. The calculation is simple: multiply each player’s total FGA from each location by the leaguewide expected points per shot at that location, add it up and then divide by the player’s total FGA. Levy then adjusts the total by the number of fouls a player draws using the average value of a pair of free throws (1.511). Then he compares this to the players’ actual points per shot.

Here at Vantage, we can take this metric one step further. Not only do we have shot location data but we have shot defense data as well. Additionally, we even know who is guarding the shooter. So we can calculate a defender’s XPPS. Using this metric, we can see if the defender is getting lucky (or unlucky) with his defense. If the defender is contesting shots and forcing the shooter to take the shot from more difficult shot locations, we’d expect to see a very low XPPS.

Let’s look at LeBron’s defense and see if he has been lucky. Is he forcing his shooters into tough shots? First, we need to calculate the XPPS for the league.

contested shots:

Shot Location

XPPS

fga

a

1.049048

1733

b

1.035159

3214

c

0.971154

2496

d

0.980715

3215

e

1.065789

1748

f

0.923077

26

g

0.777579

1677

h

0.700235

2125

i

0.781012

5119

j

0.719453

2046

k

0.738318

1712

l

1

12

m

0.47619

21

n

0.76643

2252

o

0.769585

868

p

0.783333

840

q

0.760017

2371

r

0.736842

19

s

1.0625

32

t

0.989032

5197

u

1.0197

5127

v

0.967966

4901

w

0.807692

52

(Note: See location chart at the bottom of this post.)

As we can see in the table, some locations have significantly higher XPPS for contested shots than others. We can do this for each type of shot defense.

Now let’s look at LeBron. How has he defended each location?

Location

XPPS

fga

a

1.241379

29

b

0.833333

54

c

1.241379

29

d

1.090909

66

e

1.2

25

g

0.526316

19

h

0.727273

22

i

0.878049

41

j

0.545455

22

k

0.714286

14

n

0.48

25

o

0.857143

14

p

0.571429

14

q

1

18

s

2

1

t

1.125

64

u

1

100

v

0.8

50

w

1

2

Total

0.934319

609

(Note: See location chart at the bottom of this post.)

We can then break this down even further looking at the type of shot defense LeBron has played at each location.

After calculating LeBron’s expected points and actual points for each shot location and type of shot defense (his FGA*points), we add it all up, include expected points on fouls and then divide by total attempts plus missed foul shots. We find that LeBron’s XPPS is 1.01 compared to his actual PPS 0.96.

What does this mean? Our intuition is that LeBron has gotten slightly lucky with his actual points per shot allowed being lower than what you would expect given where and what type of shot defense he played against the opposing player. We suspect the difference isn’t significant enough to say he’s due for any type of regression.

I plan to do a full analysis of all players in the NBA to ground the intuition with data, and to identify the luckiest and unluckiest defenders in the NBA. Stay tuned.

Note: And 1‘s were given an additional 0.755 value to their XPPS since the value of two FT attempts is 1.51. So for 1 FT attempt, the value would be exactly half. As an example, the league had 634 fouled And 1′s in the left low post. Since these shots are always made, their XPPS is going to be 2. However, a free throw attempt follows making the shot, so that is given the value of 0.755 so the XPPS for And 1′s in the left low post would be 2.755.

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