Thursday, 19 December 2013

Many
years ago when I had just returned to Turkey to work in the financial sector a
very senior Turkish bureaucrat gave me valuable advice about how to operate in
that country.

“I
know very well that the rules and regulations in this country are antiquated,
contradictory, and often obscure. It seems simple to take advantage of this
confusion and make a great deal of money through, shall we say, ‘irregular’
channels. My advice? Avoid this temptation at all costs. Do everything in your
power to stay inside the rules. One
thing we (Turkish officials) are good at is finding out about the little games
people play to get very rich. Whether or not we do anything about it depends entirely upon circumstances at the
time. But trust me, if you ever cross anyone in power, displease them in any
way, they will pull out your file and make your life miserable as they reveal
all your activities.”

In
other words, “You can get away with anything you want. But do understand that
someone, somewhere knows exactly what you are doing. And when it suits them
they will lower the boom right on top of your head.” I have seen this happen
time and again in Turkey.

This
admonition came to mind when I read about the latest corruption scandal to rock
Turkey. In an operation that seemingly was a surprise to the prime minister –
who notoriously hates surprises of any kind -- police officials arrested a
number of people close to the government, including the sons of three cabinet
ministers, on corruption charges. When searching the home of the general
manager of a state bank officials found shoe boxes filled with $4.5 million. The
allegations are continuing to spread and now involve the Minister for European
Affairs.

Rumours
of corruption in high places have been circulating in Turkey for years. But up
to now it was in no one’s interest or ability to do anything about it. Word of
pay-offs to get projects completed would be greeted with a shrug of the
shoulder. “What’s new? This is just the price of doing business.”

Suddenly,
out of the blue, someone has decided the time has come to lower the boom. Turkey
is no blushing virgin in matters of corruption, and this is not the first time
people close to the government have been have been caught lining their own
pockets. But why did this come out right now? What brought these claims to
surface now in such a dramatic fashion? Who are they really aimed at? Who is
behind them? How could this investigation have been going on for a year without
anyone in the government realizing what was happening?The Minister of the
Interior apparently learned about his son’s arrest on television. And this man
is in charge of the police?! Either he is completely incompetent or strong
forces outside the government’s control are at work here.

Needless
to say the country is filled with rumours of great conspiracies involving the
usual suspects of Israel and the United States. Also coming into the spot light
is the reclusive Islamic scholar Fetullah Gülen whose followers allegedly
control much of the police and judiciary. Gülen was one of Prime Minister Erdoğan’s
early supporters. But the two fell out when Erdoğan moved to close the private
college preparatory schools, many of which were run by Gülen’s people. Gülen
has adamantly denied any involvement in the latest investigation. But those
denials do not find many believers in Turkey.

The
government’s first response to this investigation was straight from the pages
of George Orwell. They fired about 30 senior police officials, including the
police chief of Istanbul, involved in the investigation. “How dare you do your
job?!!” This is the same police chief who earned Erdogan's high praise for cracking down hard on the protesters around Gezi Park last spring. No one has said a word about the substance of the investigation. There
was not even a ritual statement about the evils of corruption. No, all they
could do was claim that the investigation was somehow ‘dirty’, the result of a
plot to undermine the government.

An
added twist is the involvement of a shadowy Iranian Turk who was allegedly
involved in the illegal, sanctions-busting gold trade with Iran. According to
initial allegations he was also directly involved in bribing certain Turkish
ministers for several items like building permissions and help with getting
passports and visas for relatives.

The
only thing that is clear right now is that this investigation could not come at
a worse time for Prime Minister Erdoğan. He faces three key elections –
municipal, presidential, and general – in the next 18 months. While he could
shrug off massive protests last spring from the urban, liberal segment of
Turkey, he may have more trouble with this one. His party came to power
claiming to bring a new, clean style of governing to Turkey. As these
corruption revelations continue to dominate headlines even his strong
supporters could begin to rebel at the seeming hypocrisy of those claims.

For
the first time since he came roaring to power more than 10 years ago the prime
minister seems to be on his back foot. Where does he draw the line on support
for some of his closest allies, many of whom have become very rich? Can he
escape the fall-out from the steady revelations of corruption in high places?
Can he continue to claim the ethical high ground?

Meanwhile
the press and social media in Turkey are consumed with speculation about this investigation.
Pictures of cash counting machines and millions of dollars hidden in shoe boxes
in the suspects’ apartments dominate the front pages. There are claims that
four ministers are about to resign or get fired. Who will be next? And then
there is the billion-dollar question. Who is behind this drama?

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About Me

I worked as a fund manager and investment banker in Turkey and the Middle East for 25 years. Over the years I have travelled extensively throughout the region and have met many of the leading government officials, business and cultural leaders. I am married to a Greek and now divide my time between London, Turkey, and an island in the Aegean.