Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey
has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a
Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 - 40 percent that Sen. Specter does
not deserve reelection.

President Barack Obama gets a 56 - 37 percent job approval, compared to 62 - 31 percent
in a May 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. By a bare
50 - 43 percent majority, voters approve of the President's handling of the economy.

Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the
Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe
Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side Toomey buries Peg
Luksik 47 - 6 percent.

On May 4, Specter led Toomey 53 - 33 percent in a trial heat; his favorable unfavorable
ratio among Pennsylvania voters was 52 - 34 percent and voters said 49 - 41 percent he deserved
reelection. In a May 28 Quinnipiac University poll, Specter led Toomey 46 - 37 percent.

"Sen. Arlen Specter's 20-point lead over former Congressman Pat Toomey less than three
months ago has virtually vanished," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute.

"Voters see Sen. Specter much less favorably than they once did and are net negative
about giving him a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. Independent voters have shifted narrowly to
Toomey 46 - 42 percent and say 53 - 35 percent that Specter does not deserve reelection."

Pennsylvania voters split 47 - 46 percent in their job approval for Specter, his highest
disapproval ever and his lowest approval since a 47 - 36 percent score in an April 22, 2004,
Quinnipiac University poll, when Specter faced Toomey in a Republican primary battle.

Voters also split 45 - 44 percent, the tightest margin ever, on whether they have a
favorable opinion of Specter.

"The fact that Specter would defeat Luksik by a relatively small margin is much more a
comment on his potential weaknesses than her potential strength, since 82 percent of voters don't
know enough about her to have an opinion," Brown said.

"Even though Specter has been a Democrat for only a short time, his lead is built upon the
traditional Democratic gender gap. He leads Toomey 50 - 37 percent among women, but trails 52
- 39 percent with men. Among traditional Democratic union-members, Toomey leads 43 - 40
percent. Toomey has an opportunity to define himself for Pennsylvania voters: while 9 percent
don't have an opinion about Specter, 56 percent don't know enough about Toomey to rate him."

President Obama's job rating in Pennsylvania is the lowest of his presidency, but he still
carries a healthy 52 - 40 percent approval rating among politically key independent voters.

"As has been the case for some time, Pennsylvanians' views about the President - first
George W. Bush and now Obama - are much more closely aligned with their eastern neighbors in
New Jersey than their western ones in Ohio," Brown said. "The latest Quinnipiac University poll
in New Jersey last week showed the President with a 61 - 33 percent approval rating, while in
Ohio, the July 7 Quinnipiac University poll found his approval rating had dropped 13 points in
two months to 49 - 44 percent among registered voters."

Sen. Bob Casey has a 53 - 25 percent job approval rating.

From July 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 Pennsylvania voters with a
margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 511 Republicans with a margin
of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 512 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3
percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the
nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States
Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe
Sestak, for whom would you vote?