Inside the BRD: Grafton, Jamestown Lafayette, Smithfield, and York predicted to win in Bay Rivers football

Bay Rivers District Football Previews and Predictions for Oct. 11-12

NEW KENT (0-6, 0-5) AT YORK (5-1, 4-1)

WHEN: 7 p.m. Thursday

WHERE: Bailey Field (at York High).

THE BUZZ: York is a little short-handed in the running back department, with freshman sensation JoMari Becnel still nursing a broken wrist. But the Falcons get back explosive skill standout Tywaun Lewis after a week’s absence. In any case, moving the ball against a porous and injury-riddled New Kent defense allowing more than 40 points and 400 yards per game, probably won’t be a problem. The York defense, which allows just 14.3 points and 195 yards per contest, must be concerned with New Kent QB Luke Mechling, who’s just a few yards shy of 1,000 passing for the season.

THE PICK: York 35-13.

LAFAYETTE (5-1, 4-1) VS. TABB (3-3, 3-2)

WHEN: 7 p.m. Friday.

WHERE: Bailey Field.

THE BUZZ: Improving Tabb is on a nice roll, averaging 342 yards rushing and 37 points in three consecutive victories. The passing game got into the act with 173 yards in the 42-14 win last week over Bruton. But Lafayette defends the run pretty well (126 yards per game allowed) and has a monster rushing attack netting 350 yards per contest, so Tabb faces challenges in every way.

THE PICK: Lafayette 27-21.

POQUOSON (2-4, 1-4) AT SMITHFIELD (5-1, 4-1)

WHEN: 7 p.m. Friday.

WHERE: Smithfield High.

THE BUZZ: The return of QB Jermaal Wells is bound to give Smithfield a lift after the pass game produced as many completions (three) as interceptions in 17 attempts last week. But the Packers, who ran for only 138 yards in a 20-7 loss to Grafton, have to find running room outside against a quick Poquoson defense and with Wells ankle still no doubt hurting. Defense and an offense capable of chewing up nine or 10 minutes on a drive, should keep Poquoson close.

THE PICK: Smithfield 20-14.

GRAFTON (3-3, 3-2) VS. WARHILL (3-3, 2-3)

WHEN: 7 p.m. Friday.

WHERE: Wanner Stadium.

THE BUZZ: With the teams only fractions apart (Warhill has an 18.6 rating and Grafton 18.0) for one of the final Region I Division 4 playoff berths, this game is important. Grafton enters with new life after knocking Smithfield from the unbeaten ranks a week ago. Devonte Dedmon’s athleticism and versatility can no longer hide Warhill’s biggest weakness, a lack of physicality that has resulted in allowing 99 points and 858 yards rushing the past two weeks. The Lions simply must tackle better.

THE PICK: Grafton 28-17.

BRUTON (2-4, 1-4) VS. JAMESTOWN (3-3, 3-2)

WHEN: 7 p.m. Friday.

WHERE: Cooley Field.

THE BUZZ: A key will be which Bruton shows up defensively, because Jamestown’s offensive line and running backs Daivon Turner (657 yards rushing, seven TDs) and Stas Szczepanski (481, five TDs) will bring it. After allowing 190 yards rushing the previous two games, the Panthers gave up almost twice that in the 42-14 loss to Tabb.