Saturday, August 11, 2007

It has been a while since I last took a review of the Stockchart Public Lists - but here is the latest.

In terms of ranking, Richard Crockett's excellent stock pick list leads the pack. It will be interesting to see if his list still leads next month after the declines in the market. Below is an example of one of his stock recommendations which has weathered the market declines well:

August 9th! The Average True Range this morning is 14.57 per minute at 10:09 AM

WATCH TO SEE IF THE ATR GETS SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER. If it does do a paper trade based on a new BUY signal and see what happens. (Post market comment....there was no buy signal today and volatility moved higher. At the close the DOW was moving 19 points a minute. Welcome to volatility)

August 6th! A one minute chart that moved in box sizes of 9.58 per minute as of the close today. (per minute..........9.58 cents per minute)

You may want to learn how to use PnF charts to make your trading 'Brain Dead Simple'.

8/11 Commentary: The Fed pumped 38 Billion into the banking system last week in hopes to stabilize the stock market and provide liquidity, due to the recent volatility over the credit crisis regarding subprime loans. This is the largest deposit since the 9/11 attacks in 2001. President Bush maintains that there will be no bail out in the home mortgage market, which would reward the banks if that occurred. The Fed doesn't bail me out if a trade turns against me.

After the close on Friday, the Government also announced that Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac couldn't increase the size of their portfolios by buying more home loans. This could further panic investors and continue to push the market lower. The other concern here is that banks have been cooking the books, hiding losses, which could have serious repercussions on the Financial sector. Countrywide, the largest U.S. lender, has already fallen 40 percent this year.

Next week the PPI & the CPI economic data will be released Tuesday & Wednesday. If those reports are favorable we may get a short term bounce. If they hint of inflation, the market will continue to sink lower. We could get a rise back to the declining minor trendline (near 13,550) on the Dow to form the 2nd right shoulder in a Complex H & S pattern.

The Dow is still up 82 percent from the market bottom made in Oct. 2002. But just 3 weeks ago, wall street was doing the snoopy dance as the Dow reached a new all time high of 14,000. Now 19 trading sessions later the credit crisis has come home to roost.

Friday the Dow broke below its previous minor low, then staged a recovery off the 212 pt. loss, closing above the H & S neckline. The 60 minute charts suggest that we will get a short term recovery, but that will probably reverse at the declining 20 day MAs & the new minor downtrend lines. With wild volatile swings, this market is about as unpredictable as Britney Spears.

8/11 -- Friday's recovery off the lows delivered signs of a possible short term bottom and in some cases (like the Dow) even longer term channel support. The short term charts are mostly quick zigzags now, indicating legs of larger moves that important to watch (even the one-year and three-year charts are worth watching now). The broad indices may have hit, or are approaching multi-month lines of support that could provide a bounce. However, charts on the RUT and Gold and oil and XTC are not providing such optimism yet.

A note of caution on options here...the volatility is high and option premiums are in the stratosphere. I bought calls on the QQQQ when it was down nearly a full point yesterday and at the end of the day when the index recovered half that move my calls only went up 2 cents.

8/9 -pm- The important thing that happened today is best shown on the hourly Dow chart. The bounce was indeed a minichannel of something larger and that larger channel is clearly downward. Short term breakdowns abound. To see tentative downside targets, view the daily charts for the larger upchannels from last year that are still in effect.

8/9 -am- The short term uptrends may now be breaking back downward this morning. CHECK OUT THE DOW 60-MIN CHART FOR NEW LARGER DOWNCHANNEL SCENARIO.

8/8 -- The majors all continued in their short term uptrends today, which became more well-defined now as a result of the dip and recovery. The only issue is that as you can see, these upchannels are narrow. That suggests they are more likely to be minichannels and thus part of a larger trend channel. That larger channel could be up or even still down at this time.

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Just for Fun..

This clock reached its time on October 19th 2017. This was a forecast for a "Major Market Top". Unfortunately, I can't find the link for the source material (but years ending in "7" was one of the red flags) but I thought it interesting enough to start this countdown clock 2 years ago.