Occupy Fantasy’s 3 Key QBs: NFL Week 3

Our friends over at OccupyFantasy.com are here with three key quarterbacks from their “Daily Plug” Article for the Week 3. For more follow them @occupyfantasy on Twitter.

The Daily Plug is our weekly NFL write-up that highlights the top plays from our Occupy Model. The Plug then provides actionable information for the main slate by making specific recommendations on how much of your bankroll to allocate and exactly which types of contests to play — all depending on the type of player you are. Consider the Plug an in-depth road map for the main slate. Let’s get to it!

QUARTERBACK

It’s hard to find a safer quarterback than Derek Carr this weekend. The Raiders have the second highest implied team total (28.75), and Carr already has 13 passing attempts in the red zone — including four attempts within the 10-yard line — through two games this season. In his last 17 games, he has 10 multiple-touchdown performances. Carr always carries a high floor with his elite offensive line and incredible playmaking receivers, but he doesn’t have as much upside as you think. He’s dead-last in the NFL this year in intended air yards-per-attempt (6.2), and he has just four 300-yard passing games since the start of the 2016 season. So while it’s unlikely Carr scores enough fantasy points to reach his ceiling in higher-risk contests, he’s a great option in your lineups that you enter into lower-risk, lower-reward games. He’s just slightly more expensive than Cam Newton on both sites this weekend, but he’s much safer despite Newton’s matchup with New Orleans. Cam’s accuracy has been wildly inconsistent through two games this season after shaking off the rust from off-season shoulder surgery, averaging just 13 DraftKings points-per-game. He has a far lower floor than Carr, and the betting markets believe his ceiling might not even be higher — the Panthers’ implied team total has dropped 1.5 points (to 26) since the line opened.

Aaron Rodgers is the number three overall quarterback in the Occupy Model for Week 3, and his services won’t come cheaply — he’s the second highest priced quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’ll likely be without Randall Cobb this weekend (although it sounds like Jordy Nelson will be suiting up), but that hasn’t affected the Packers’ 27.50-point implied team total. Even as 9-point favorites this weekend, we project Rodgers for 38 passing attempts, giving him both a high floor and a massive ceiling. Don’t be fooled by Cincinnati’s fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks — they’ve faced a rookie and a guy who didn’t practice all through training camp with a back injury. It’s a different beast this weekend against Aaron Rodgers, and you can fire him up in all contest types.

Once again, the sites have failed to change salaries for players who played in Monday night games the week before. Now in a much more enticing matchup against Atlanta in Week 3, Matthew Stafford is just $6200 on DraftKings and $7900 on FanDuel. Stafford is the number five ranked QB in the Occupy Model, but he offers great savings over the four passers rated higher, which will allow you some salary relief to fit in studs at other positions. Both Atlanta and Detroit are near the bottom of the league in pace, but they also are top-10 in Football Outsiders’ passing efficiency metrics, which is why this game has the second highest total of the week (50.5). The Falcons will be without star pass rusher Vic Beasley for a few weeks, which just further upgrades Stafford’s outlook on Sunday. He’s another quarterback option who is playable in both 5050s/H2Hs/Double Ups and Multipliers/Leagues/GPPs.