Tuesday, March 14, 2017

After a sequence of polls from other firms strongly suggesting that support for independence has increased over the last few weeks, YouGov have finally broken their months-long drought with a poll that bizarrely marches off in completely the opposite direction.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 43% (-1)No 57% (+1)

Self-evidently, those figures are not easily reconcilable with last week's Ipsos-Mori poll giving Yes a very slight lead. The fieldwork is more recent, but it looks like only a minority of interviews took place after Nicola Sturgeon's announcement of a second independence referendum. It'll be tempting for some people to suggest that the reality of a second vote has caused a sudden backlash, but I'd suggest it's much more likely there's a YouGov-specific methodological issue at play here. Is it really just coincidence that YouGov's last two polls, conducted several months apart, have been the only two polls from any firm to put support for independence lower than the 45% achieved in September 2014? It seems improbable.

The datasets aren't out yet, so I can only speculate as to what might be going on. Long-term readers will recall that YouGov made a controversial and extremely convoluted adjustment to their results during Indyref 1, dubbed the "Kellner Correction", and were also frustratingly secretive about the exact impact that it was having. There's bound to be suspicions that they've quietly started doing something similar once again, but let's not jump to conclusions. It may just be that YouGov's volunteer polling panel has spontaneously become a little more No-friendly than others.

A graph released on Twitter suggests that only over-18s were interviewed for the new poll. That would seem odd, given that YouGov finally got their act together in the autumn and started polling 16 and 17 year olds. My guess is that it's unlikely they've taken a step backwards. If by any chance they have, though, it's obviously possible that the failure to interview the correct electorate may in itself have led to a slight underestimate of the Yes vote.

UPDATE : Remarkably, it turns out that YouGov did NOT interview 16 and 17 year olds - you can read more HERE.

43 comments:

We started in the very low 30s last time so hardly an invidious position to be in at the very beginning of the campaign.

The westminster bubble fools also seem to have forgotten that the last Independence campaign was undertaken with SNP membership in the low 20,000s. It's is now above 120,000.

The idea the SLAB or SCON can come remotely close to matching that is sheer hilarity. Nor can SCON rely on Labour taking the lead or bussing up activists from south of the border this time.

There's also the small matter of almost 50% of scots voters voting SNP and, depending on the poll, basically 50% supporting Independence. Which is why the pitiful smears are doomed to utter failure. Everyone in scotland knows an SNP supporter or voter. Which means the more lunatic and desperate the lies and smears, the less inclined the scottish public are to believe a single word the westmisnter bubble and unionist dominated media says.

Even the inept BritNat media can't keep up the wall-to-wall 24/7 rabidly comical smears and lies for two years.

When the Brexit reality starts to bite and the incompetent, out of their depth three Brexitears start panicking, they can hardly hide that.

These tory clowns can't have a budget without another omnishambles and they seriously expect to competently negotiate one of the most complex series of trade agreements and the politically charged consequences of each multi-faceted step of a hideously complex negotiation?

The Scottish people are not stupid our ancestors fought the Nazis and recognise the rise of the anti English Neo Natzis in Scotland who do not accept democracy.Unionists should prepare to face these fascists by all means necessary. The so called innocent saltire wavers are fascist.

Nat si are English hating racists. The UK voted out so it is the UK who negotiate.No special considerations for the Jock fash. Knickerless could not be trusted in any negotiations as she would bubble tae Herman any negotiating position.So call yer referendum and be done with it shitebags. Do it now scumbags.Sell Scotland out to Germany ya leeches.

Pro Union at 52% inspite of the mad frenzy by the Nat sis who claim to represent the Scots and more so after the brexit vote.So where are the Nat sis going wrong. Oh sorry I have the answer the fash do not speak for all of Scotland and the majority of Scots do not want to be run from Bruxelles und Frankfurt.Knickerless should resign along with the Paisley slapper. Time tae move on Nat sis you need fresh blood.

Poor wee Nat si Jocks fae ra North. All yer crap about Brexit and selling Scotland out to the fash EU beaurocrats and you are still not ahead. Where are you going wrong? Could it be the Scots do not want to be sold out to Herman and the Frogs. The majority of Scots prefer their English neighbour! That must stick in yer craw ya fascists.

The term Yoons is a term that could only be used by petty nationalist neo fascists. It is a term used against free thinking people and is dangerous. Unionists need to be vigilant against these Neo Natzis.Those type of people are like those who knocked sorry kicked in doors during Cristillnach.

The Nat sis are shitting themselves to go for a referendum. All the crap they spouted since September 14 and here we are, Nae referendum. Even their English hating racist fascist supporters have gone stumn.

If the graph on twitter is this one, https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/199d5070-089c-11e7-80fa-d2249ae0b02d/question/6bbd2dd0-089c-11e7-b2a1-aada186fb1ac/region ,

The first thing to note is they tell you at the onset that it's weighed according to GB rather than Scotland.

The second thing to note is that the question about independence isn't about how you'd vote but rather how you think the result will be. Being a gloomy bastard my inclination based on the present polling is to predict a narrow defeat. That doesn't mean I'm not going to go out an vote.

There seems to be a common theme of refusing to answer the question and substituting another one instead. First time I've seen a polling company doing the same.