/m/red_sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Was hoping the loss of top contributors and good guys, Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia, from the roster, along with the improbable addition of Pierzynski, would put an end to the stories of the wonderful RedSox woven,tight-knit clubhouse culture.Not so, alas.

You have to guess Pedey's open market deal woulda been something kinda like Ells' perhaps? So he "left" 40-50 million "on the table", as they say.

Pedroia was 2&1/2 years away from free agency. He took less to insure against injury/decline. He also would have been 2 years older than Ellsbury/Cano are now when he was a free agent, there was no shot a 32 year old 2nd baseman was getting contracts like theirs.

In total, forecast is 35.3 WAR, which is near record levels for a 2b in his 30s. The Mariners overpaid $240m for that forecast, or roughly $7m/WAR, and similar to what Yankees paid Ellsbury for his forecast.

Pedroia has been produced 19.4 WAR the last 3 years and 39 since age 23. If you use 90% of Cano forecast without the age 31 year, you would get roughly 27 WAR. At $7m per, he would have gotten a 9 year deal for $190m.

But to get this deal he'd have to avoid decline and injury for remainder of 2013, 2014 and 2015. That 3 year comparison to Cano is also as favorable as Boras could ever produce. Over last 4 years Cano has 29.8 to Dustin's 22.5, over last 2 years it's 16.1 to 11.4. If Dustin's forecast is 80% of Canos the expected contract is $168m.

Dustin locked down $110m 2&1/2 years early without worrying about injuries, decline, moving to a new town, or moving twice when traded in last year of control, the state of the 2015 free agent market, etc. If he gave the Sox a discount, it wasn't substantial.

Pedroia was 2&1/2 years away from free agency. He took less to insure against injury/decline. He also would have been 2 years older than Ellsbury/Cano are now when he was a free agent, there was no shot a 32 year old 2nd baseman was getting contracts like theirs.

His deal would have ended after 2014, his 30 year old season. He was a year and a half from FA, not two and one half years. Ellsbury's ended this year, after his 29 year old season. Pedroia's first year on his new deal woulda been his 31 year old season, same as Cano for his new deal.

You're off by a year in all 3 cases.

IIRC, Pedroia's deal is for about 110 million. You'd have to think he'd have gotten a deal worth maybe 150-160 from somebody, unless he falls off a cliff.

I love Pedroia, and think he is a hell of a player, but he may be an example of somebody who is more valuable with the Red Sox than he would be anywhere else. His career OPS is 113 points higher at home than on the road, and he has a ton more doubles at home than on the road, in slightly fewer PAs. He'd be a very good player anywhere, and his defense is awesome, but he and the Red Sox were made for each other, and he strikes me as plenty level-headed enough to figure it out.

IIRC, Pedroia's deal is for about 110 million. You'd have to think he'd have gotten a deal worth maybe 150-160 from somebody, unless he falls off a cliff.

Enring his age 32 season that was probably his best case scenario. 2nd basemen have a nasty rep for falling off cliffs in their early/mid 30s. Even if he doesn't fall off cliff in his age 31 year, it will be a concern of his suitors. If he puts only a 3 or 4 WAR season in his walk year, will the market worry the end is near?

So the question is how much insurance he would want 2& 1/2 years earlier. It's complicated by fact he was already owed $10m for 2014, so really he locked down $100M for after that (the 2015 option might not help him if he falls off cliff in 2014, it hinders him if he's good in 2014 because it forestalls free agency for one of his last prime years).

Taking the 2015 prime year off your estimate means he was getting at most $140M after that, so the $40m is a mix of insurance and Red Sox preference. I'd probably allocate it at least $30m insurance and less than $10m preference. If you think insurance cost was less, then you think his likelihood of collapse/significant decline by end of 2015 was less than 20%.

To put all of this into context, Dustin Pedroia signed a contract that means he'll can now tell his young wife and children that, even if he doesn't sign another contract in his baseball life, he will have made almost $140 million by his 38th birthday. It's all good.