August 2008

August 31, 2008

A piece from The Observer on the Republicans' tactics. It's a fun read, though it's fair to say it might be, um, slightly partisan:

Under a succession of dark geniuses, the [Republican] party has perfected the black art of negative campaigning. It has created the most effective attack machine in the Western world, with the sole purpose of destroying opponents and winning elections... It has one purpose – to keep the White House in Republican hands at all costs and against the odds.

I doubt even a seasoned political operative would be so cynical as to actively hope for a devastating landfall for Gustav, but the GOP team wouldn't be doing their jobs if they hadn't at least considered how they could make the hurricane play well for their side.

On the one hand, if it's anything like as bad as Katrina (and this apocalyptic warning from the mayor of New Orleans suggests that it might be, though let's remember he's trying to mobilise a mass evacuation here), it will completely overshadow the convention.

But, on the other hand, it will completely overshadow the convention. No hard questions about experience, no pundits picking apart the minutiae of foreign and economic policy. No 'He looks too old, she looks too young'. Bush and Cheney have already announced they're giving it a miss, which neatly solves McCain's problem of how you distance yourself from the most unpopular president in the history of presidents while being in the same room as him, listening to a speech in which he is going to have to mention you (and presumably not to say, "Don't worry, John'll be nothing like me, because I turned out to be shockingly bad at this job").

Instead, there is scope for moving speeches, solemn appeals for aid and volunteers, and rolling updates on events. If the GOP can capture America's natural interest and concern for the people for whom Gustav is currently headed and harness it to the platform their convention offers them, it could end the week looking like the steady hand at the tiller in times of trouble.

But providing a pitch-perfect, on-the-hoof response to an unfolding and unpredictable event over the course of several days while the eyes of the world are on you, without looking like you're making political capital out of a tragedy, is a big, big ask. And, as this Time post notes, one that may be beyond the reach of the "chaotic" Republicans. They're also at the mercy of the federal government: if Gustav requires an emergency response, and it turns out to be as inadequate as the response to Katrina, there's no way McCain can avoid the negative fall-out from the opprobrium that will be heaped, once again, on Bush.

So, for a whole variety of reasons, this evening everyone should be hoping that Gustav doesn't turn out to be what we all fear it might be, and that next week - both in St Paul and in Louisiana - it's business as close to usual as can be managed.

There's already been a lot of talk about experience in this campaign, and, post-Palin, it just went up a notch. But between exchanges of fire about executive experience versus foreign policy experience versus Washington experience, Richard Reeves pokes his head over the barricades to ask the obvious question: no matter how much experience you've had, is anyone ever ready to be president?

His answer is no: I doubt that anyone ever was or ever will be. The job is sui generis. The presidency is an act of faith.

As Hurricane Gustav heads towards land and thousands of New Orleans residents evacuate the city, the Republicans are having to consider how to respond if a natural disaster unfolds at the same time as they're trying to have their big party.

This suggestion would certainly make for a unusual political event:

One idea being floated is turning the convention into a hurricane telethon.

She's going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he'll be around at least that long.

Charlie Black is a senior McCain adviser. He actually thinks it's a good idea to conjure the image of a crack team of medical experts anxiously conferring over whether the 72-year-old candidate has it in him to stay alive long enough to complete the term of office for which he is campaigning. (And, apparently, only 'most' of them think he does.) Way to inspire some confidence, Charlie. From what you're saying here, with a bit of luck, hey, he could last five - maybe even six - more years.

(And, while we're on it, is anyone else pondering Mr Black's fantasy of Sarah Palin seated at the feet of the master John McCain and thinking: ewwww?)

After a week of Democrats talking up Obama's and Joe Biden's claims to be just regular, down-to-earth fellas (despite being, respectively, an Ivy League graduate and - when he was elected in 1972 - the fifth-youngest senator in US history) an interesting question from Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com:

Palin is the most manifestly ordinary person ever to be nominated for a major party ticket... Palin isn't merely playing at being ordinary, the way that Bill Clinton (Rhodes Scholar) or George W. Bush (son of a president) or Hillary Clinton (wife of a president) might. She really, really comes across that way – like someone who had won a sweepstakes or an essay content. Her authenticity factor is off-the-charts good; her biography sings. But do Americans really want their next-door-neighbor running for Vice President, or rather someone who seems like one?

OK, we know it's kind of hard to keep up. We know that for the last few months - hell, the last coupla decades - Hillary Clinton hasn't exactly been a friend of ours. We've rarely missed an opportunity to dismiss, patronise or smear her or her husband. Hey, she wasn't moaning about the vast right-wing conspiracy for nothing!

But listen up - as of Friday we officially heart Hillary! You know we picked Sarah Palin in the hope of enticing away from the Democrats some of those disaffected female Hillary voters (well, it wasn't for her foreign policy experience, right!). That means we have to make nice about their girl.

Ohio, y'all did really well at Sarah's acceptance speech, when she heaped praise on Hillary (and that other Democrat broad, Geraldine Ferraro) but, Pennsylvania, things like this really don't help:

...newly-minted GOP running mate Sarah Palin was showered with boos on Saturday for attempting to praise Clinton's trail-blazing bid to become the first female president... the Alaska governor was met with a noisy mix of boos, groans and grumbles around the minor league ballpark where the "Road to the Convention Rally" was held.

Please, can everyone just try to remember: Hillary is one of the good guys now. Well, not 'guys' but... oh, you know what we mean.

This is from earlier in the month. Given the events of the last two weeks, it's priceless:

Republican strategist Karl Rove said on Face The Nation Sunday that
he expects presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama to choose a
running mate based on political calculations, not the person's
readiness for the job.

"I think he's going to make an intensely political choice, not
a governing choice," Rove said. "He's going to view this through the
prism of a candidate, not through the prism of president; that is to
say, he's going to pick somebody that he thinks will on the margin help
him in a state like Indiana or Missouri or Virginia. He's not going to
be thinking big and broad about the responsibilities of president."

One of the jarring moments from yesterday's McCain-Palin event was when Palin gave a shout-out to Hillary Clinton. Like much about the whole thing this was so transparently political as to be embarrassing. You know, I have a feeling that Hillary Clinton's supporters voted for her because she's Hillary Clinton; it's not a case of any woman will do. Besides, as Nate Silver points out, the Republicans are dangerously close to evoking a deep-seated gender taboo: resentment of the younger, prettier, less qualified woman replacing the older one.

Palin: You know, with all respect to Senator Biden, I have to say that, like millions of other women, I was disappointed Barack Obama didn't choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. That would have sent a truly powerful signal. I am honoured that John McCain put his faith in me, and I hope that I can carry on the work that Hillary Clinton began, and smash that glass ceiling.

Biden: Governor, I know Hillary Clinton. I've worked with Hillary Clinton for over twenty years. Hillary Clinton is one of the most accomplished people in this country, man or woman. Governor Palin: I respect what you have achieved in your home state of Alaska. But, Governor, you are no Hillary Clinton.

(ps I should add, in Palin's defence, that she clearly ain't no Dan Quayle)

Having slept on it, I think this was a poor decision. Maybe even a disastrous one. I'm sure I'm not the only one. In fact I know I'm not. More than a few Republican commentators are feeling pretty queasy about the Palin pick. After the initial euphoria (she's a woman! And an outsider! And young! You crazy maverick, John!) dies down I think a consensus will develop that this was a mistake.

First of all, it's a patently desperate pick. By that I mean, he clearly made up his mind on this in the last few days as a response to Obama choosing Biden. Suddenly, Romney and Pawlenty looked like bad choices. He was told he couldn't pick a pro-choicer like Lieberman. So he ended up casting around for someone else with only a few days to go and came up with Palin.Evidence? He'd only met her once. In February. If you're going to pick someone to work as your partner in running the country, surely you'd want to know them a little better than that. This is not the behaviour of a potential president; a man serious about governing. It's the behaviour of a politician with his back against the wall.

Second, the inexperience thing makes it much harder to attack Obama for not being ready. Every time they do so they'll have to persuade us that she's more ready to be C-i-C than he is (one heartbeat away, remember?). How on earth do they do that? Well, the truth is they can't. I mean, one thing you can't say about Palin is that she has thin foreign policy experience. This is because
she hasno foreign policy experience. Nada. As far as
anyone can tell she's never made a statement regarding any country
other than America. And we're meant to believe she's ready to be president?

Third, and connected to the first, McCain and Palin don't look good together, because they don't know each other. Obama and Biden look entirely comfortable side by side. They've known each other for years. It shows. McCain and Palin looked so ill-at-ease with each other yesterday. He just didn't
look happy. I have a feeling he feels like he got forced into this and
is regretting it already.

Fourth, McCain and his team just have no idea what she'll be like in a national campaign. There's huge potential for gaffes, for cringe-making demonstrations of her lack of Washington experience. We're a long way from Anchorage now.

It all comes back to this. They've picked someone that neither the candidate, nor his staff, know very well. That's a huge risk. But it's worse that that: in the most important decision of his campaign, McCain has shown himself to be a tactical, short-term trimmer, buffeted by events rather than shaping them.

August 29, 2008

McCain's team still aren't great at set-pieces like this. It all looks a bit shambolic after last night.

It's taking a looong time to introduce her family. They all have lots of names. Rather odd ones (did she just say that one of them is called Trigger Van Halen?). This is more like a wedding speech than a political speech.

She's impressive though...an ordinary mom look with more than a hint of steel in her demeanour. Clearly smart. That voice may grate over time. Will men feel like they're being harangued? SNL comedians will enjoy doing imitations of her.

Well, fact is there aren't that many facts about her yet. Sarah Palin, despite (or because of) being Governor of Alaska, is by no means a national figure.

Marbury is pleased to direct you to this very brief introduction to Palin, written at the beginning of July when nobody had a clue she was in the running. Apart from commenter Ted, who brought her to my attention, and who will be very chuffed indeed.

Is it a good pick? On the face of it, yes. She's female (hey, disgruntled Clinton voters - over here!), she's got an all-American, midwestern gal thing going on and an apple-pie family. She's conservative on social issues, she likes huntin' and fishin', and she's young - and not unattractive for a politician (ex-beauty queen actually). She represents 'change', as a woman and as a non-Washingtonian.

But - we don't know her that well. Nobody does, outside of Alaska. How will she do in the heat of a national campaign? Will voters think her too young to take over as president? What if she flubs the VP debate badly? She's going to have to do A LOT of homework not to look very green next to Biden, especially on foreign policy. It may be harder to attack Obama's inexperience now, although as Klein points out, the Republicans can argue they got their ticket the right way round. It's a risky choice. But McCain clearly thinks he needs to take the odd risk. Good for him.

ps there will be TONS of coverage and excited comment on this, starting now (more so than on Biden, who was so well-known already). In the midst of it, remember: VP picks don't matter that much. Well, not nearly as much as it will seem in the next few days.