The top in the Diamonds

I was looking at a chart of the Diamonds. The Diamonds are usually not traded by retail investors. The people who trade the Diamonds are institutions.

I noticed that there were two unusually high volume levels since the inception of the Diamonds. The highest volume was in the 3-4Q of 2002 which indicates that larger investors knew that this was truly a bottom.

Recently, the volume hit a record on the Diamonds in June and that month was a down month. In the past 10 years, when there has been a dark candlestick after a rise the potential for the Diamonds to correct down to the second moving average on my chart (or further) is high. Actually there is a 100% chance statistically if you use the past 10 years of trading as a guide.

So does the record volume on the Diamonds in June indicate a top? Who was dumping the Diamonds in June and why?

DIAs are also used for hedging, so it may also be a function of volatility. It is not like a regular stock...DIAs can be created and destroyed at will so volume will also fluctuate with shares outstanding.