Archive for the ‘roenis elias’ tag

I was way off on my salary prediction for taylor. (AP Photo/Nick Wass via nbcsports.com)

Each year various pundits put out projections on Arbitration salary figures. I put my own simple guesses in early in the off-season to do payroll projections.

Lets see how everyone did this year guessing the Nats cases?

You can see these guesses on the Nats 2020 Payroll page on the Big Board here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/ . I’ll take them one by one and talk through my guess versus the pros versus the actual settled number (they’re in the order they are on that page, not alphabetical or by salary amount).

Note: I tend to use the 40%/60%/80% guess for salaries, meaning in a player’s 1st arbitration year their salary should be 40% of their fair market value, in the 2nd year 60%, in the 3rd year 80%. For those Super-2 players I guess what really happens is something like a 40/60/80/90 range. I also figure players can’t get a salary cut, so even a poor player once tendered gets a salary increase … or so I thought. Read on.

I was off by more than $500k, as was Cots, while MLBTR was right there, just $50k off. Great guess. In his 2nd arbitration year I figured he’d get to about $8M, meaning he’s projecting to be about a $14M/year player. He definitely improved his overall stock year over year after earning $3.725M last season. Its hard to imagine what he dealt with in 2019, basically playing the entire season with a busted finger. Can he explode in 2020? I bet he can; he had as many homers in 2019 (19) as he did in 40 more games in 2018. Can he return to his crazy stats from his rookie season?

This was my worst guess; I’m not sure why I thought he’d improve so highly on his 2019 salary of $3.25M. I’m guessing that the team probably made him a deal and offered to tender him (and guarantee his 2020 salary to some extent) but that he had to agree to just a nominal raise. Interesting how MLBTR predicted he’d get zero raise from 2019; how did they project that? Nonetheless, MLBTR was just $100k off here, while I ended up more than a million dollars off. What was I thinking? I”m not sure; perhaps I was thinking that Taylor’s improved 2019 numbers and his now-recognized defensive prowess would be worth a decent amount on the open market. I dunno; if he was a FA right now, i think he’d be looking at a MLFA contract and one last “show me” season starting in AAA. Will he make the 2020 team? I still sense there’s some detractors out there who think he’ll get cut. I don’t: I think he was improving in AA, he shone in the post-season and is an excellent guy to have on the bench who can play the OF at gold-glove levels as a late inning replacement.

So, three for three, MLBTR is closest in their guesses. I think i’m over valuing Strickland for past performance, not what he did in 2019. I know that there are those who think Strickland should have been non-tendered; i think those people forget he was hurt in 2019 and may not have really recovered. If he’s anywhere close to his 2017 self, then $1.6M is an absolute steal. We’re talking about a back of the bullpen guy who can take over games. I also figured he’d get a decent increase over his 2019 $1.3M salary, especially given that he’s worth $8M/year if he’s in his past form on the open market. If if if. 2020 will be an important year for Strickland. Plus he gets to pitch against Bryce Harper all the time!

This one kind of confused me; i didn’t think Elias’ 2019 season merited more than a doubling of his 2019 salary of $910k. So I predicted an incremental increase … but both Cots and MLBTR were spot on here, with both being within $100k of the eventual figure. These guys are good.

I guessed that a completely replacement-level middle infielder would get basically the “MLB veteran FA minimum” of around $800k. MLBTR went $200k to the other side. A flat million for a guy who a lot of readers here don’t think makes the team over an even lesser hitting replacement middle infielder we have on our roster in Adrian Sanchez. If he’s released mid-spring training they’re only on the hook for 1/6th of the figure … so there’s that.

My closest guess, and I still couldn’t beat MLBTR, which guessed the same. I like this as a salary for Ross, still a 50% raise over last year where he barely contributed though. In his sole healthy, solid season he was perhaps the best 5th starter in the game; here’s hoping he can return to that form in 2020.

———–

All told, I was more than $3.6M off on salaries one way or the other for these six players, an average of $600k wrong. I’m not good at this.

Cots was a cumulative $1.625M off one way or the other, an average of $275k wrong per player. MLBTR was off by a cumulative $1.1M, or an average of just $183k per player. Their system continues to be the best and predicting these kinds of things.

Cabrera was awful for Texas last year and got outright released; he lit it up for Washington, mercifully taking over for the completely ineffective Brian Dozier and lighting it up for the team down the stretch (slash line for DC last year post-signing: .323/.404/.565). Cabrera played 3B for Texas but mostly 2B for DC; right now he’s your starting 3B opening day save any other move.

Castro clearly is the starting 2B; he moved there a few years ago, played it exclusively for several years but moved to 3B last season to make room for a prospect. He was reportedly telling teams in FA he was only interested in playing 2B … so we have our starting 2B. His signing seems to clarify what the team’s infield will be looking like come April. He has two straight years of right around league average OPS+, but in 2019 he spiked homers, hitting 22 of them on the year playing a lot of games in pitcher-friendly NL East stadiums.

Hernandez was a great middle reliever in 2018 for Cincinnati, but blew up last year and signs a MLFA deal in an attempt to get back to the majors. I like this as a low-risk/high reward move for a team always looking for the next 6th/7th inning RH reliever.

With these moves … as per the updated Big Board, your starting lineup come 4/1/20 looks like this (here’s a guess as to the lineup)

Eaton (RF)

Turner (SS)

Soto (LF)

Kendrick (1B)

Castro (2B)

Cabrera (3B)

Suzuki (C)

Robles (CF)

Pitcher

That’s … a big step back from what we showed offensively last year, obviously. The loss of Anthony Rendon in the middle of the order is pretty apparent.

Is this a playoff team?

—————-

Cabrera becomes the fourth 2019 team member/FA to re-sign with the team, joining Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick and Yan Gomes. Pretty much the entire industry assumes Ryan Zimmerman is re-signing to be a bench bat as well. So a lot of the veteran crew that was credited with helping the team win in October is now back.

Is this a good thing?

The oldest team in the majors last year has now resigned FAs who will be playing in their

age 34 year (Cabrera)

32 (Gomes)

31 (Strasburg) and

36 (Kendrick).

They join other presumed starters and key relievers north of 30 in :

Kurt Suzuki (2020 will be his age 36 year)

Max Scherzer (35),

Anibal Sanchez (36)

Adam Eaton (31)

Sean Doolittle (33)

Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias (both 31)

Wil Harris (35)

Starlin Castro (30).

Um. That’s a lot guys on the wrong side of 30. And a lot of assumptions that the production like we got out of Cabrera (143 OPS+) continues into 2020 if he’s indeed the starting 3B.

———————————-

Oh, ps: all appropriate tabs in the Big Board are now updated for these transactions. We’re now at 36/40 on the 40-man roster. New payroll estimate is $185,452,709, leaving us $22,547,291 under the cap for 2020. For all of you still holding out hope for Josh Donaldson … you should stop. He’s soliciting 4yr deals north of $100M; the numbers don’t add up. If this team has $22M and change left and are not going over, then we’re out of the Donaldson mix.

I’m not sure what’s next. Does the team pursue a trade for a 3B? Clearly they don’t want to give up Victor Robles in a Kris Bryant trade (and I don’t blame them, whether or not they have one year or two of his services). Maybe we’re going to see some Rizzo trade magic coming soon.

To Non-tender or not to non-tender, that is the question for Taylor tomorrow. (AP Photo/Nick Wass via nbcsports.com)

We’ve already covered this topic a bit in the payroll and options analysis spots, but since the official non-tender deadline is this week (tomorrow, 12/2/19 at 8pm EST to be specific), I thought i’d throw out the players, give some external opinions and then my own.

Like a lot of posts, this is an annual tradition. Here’s versions of this post from previous years: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011. Must have been busy in Dec of 2016.

Masn’s Mark Zuckerman posted his analysis day of. He thinks that Glover is at the most danger of getting cut.

——————-

So, lets go player by player and talk about what I think will happen (in the order of the table above):

Turner, Trea; obvious tender.

Taylor, Michael: I’m torn. I just can’t see spending $3.5M or more (he made $3.25M last season) on a guy who you had to send to AA because he was so bad last year. But, its also notable that he featured prominently in the playoffs, and not his likely replacement if we non-tender him Andrew Stevenson . When Victor Robles went out, it was Taylor who played the entire LA series and performed well. Maybe the team still rates him. Its interesting that Taylor was specifically not listed by MLBtraderumors … maybe $3.5M for a 4th OF that you grew at home and who you know is a fantastic defender and who can string together solid streaks at the plate is worth keeping. I’m coming around on Taylor and think we keep him.

Strickland, Hunter: i just can’t see non-tendering him a half a season after acquiring him. Even if he wasn’t terribly effective in 2019 for us, he was also coming off injury and was a closer-quality guy for years in SF. His salary only projects to about $2-$2.5M and that’s a good gamble. Keep him.

Elias, Roenis: as with Strickland; we just got him and then he got hurt. Stupidly running the bases (please, can we have a universal DH yet??), he pulled a hamstring that basically never healed. Easy tender for 2020.

Guerra, Javy: numbers weren’t great, but he handled his DFA with grace and apparently this won’t be forgotten by management. Made the WS roster and pitched. I like the guy, think he’s a fighter, and i think he’s a good middle relief candidate. I’d tender him.

Difo, Wilmer; first year arb eligible; split time between AAA and MLB this year. I mean, you need a backup infielder, and his numbers aren’t terribly bad for a guy who can play a number of positions. I’m not sure why he’s a NT candidate; i’d rather have him at $800k than Adrian Sanchez at $550k.

Ross, Joe: obvious tender

Glover, Koda: tough one here. Glover has closer quality stuff, but now has two straight seasons of injury and faces arbitration. I’ve got him projected at just $750k (MLBtraderumors even less): why not tender him at that price then if you cut him in ST you’re on the hook for 1/6th of it ($125K). That’s peanuts for a guy who you know can be an 8th-9th inning reliever.

Barrett, Aaron: well, it’d be pretty cynical for the team to call him up in Sept for the sob story of redemption then ruthlessly NT him to save $750k right?

One last note: even if you tender a guy, if you drop him mid-spring training you’re only on the hook for a small portion of his salary. So some of these non-tenders may turn into “tender now, do arbitration then use spring training as a tryout on the cheap.” None of our real NT candidates really are that expensive, so It wouldn’t surprise me to tender all of them in some respects.

I’m predicting zero non-tenders. I thought initially we may NT at least 4 of these guys, especially Taylor, but team actions seem to indicate otherwise.

Ross is one of the tougher options crunch players the Nats have to decide upon this off-season.Photo Getty Images via federalbaseball.com

We’ve alluded to this point in multiple comments under past comments, but its time to put pencil to paper.

Right now (ahead of any FA signings), the Nats 40-man roster sits at 31 players, with Ben Braymer having been added to avoid Rule-5 exposure yesterday … and one third of those players are out of options for next season. A number of those players also seem to have little chance of actually making an active roster of a major league team, which means that they could be early off-season outright fodder if the team wants to try to slip them through waivers and outright them back into the system.

Lets take a quick run through each of the categories of Nats 40-man players and option status.

(by the way, yes I know its a 26-man roster in 2020; all my XLSs need updating).

Category 1: Vets who can refuse demotion (5 or more years of service) – 6 current players

Player

2020 25-man opening day Guess

Service Time post 2019

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

Options left?

Notes

Scherzer, Max

x

11.079

May 2007

2008

2

Eaton, Adam

x

7.030

Sept 2012

2013

2

Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017

Doolittle, Sean

x

7.122

Nov 2010

2011,2012

1

Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017

Suzuki, Kurt

x

12.113

Jun 2007

none

3

Corbin, Patrick

x

7.105

Apr 2012

2012

2

Achieved 5yrs svc in 2017

Sanchez, Anibal

x

13.083

Nov 2005

2006

2

Interestingly, the Nats roster last year had no less than 16 such players; Veterans with 5+ years of service who could refuse demotion/make any available options immaterial. Indeed, it was a veteran team. Now 10 of those guys are FAs or out of the organization.

Category 2: Options Avail but are MLB entrenched – 5 current players

Player

2020 25-man opening day Guess

Service Time post 2019

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

Options left?

Notes

Turner, Trea

x

3.135

Aug 2015

2016

2

still pissed he was called up so early, but he's in AAA to start 2016, which preserved an extra yr of control but did not save Super2 status for 2019

Soto, Juan

x

1.134

May 2018

none

3

yet to be optioned

Robles, Victor

x

1.052

Sep 2017

2018

2

Suero, Wander

x

1.123

Nov 2017

2018

2

Rainey, Tanner

x

0.158

Apr 2018

2018,2019

1

Jk

Not much to see here; all 5 of these guys are important parts of next year’s team. As noted, the early call up of Trea Turner eventually came back to bite the team, and probably costs them in the range of $10-$12M in payroll over the course of his four arbitration periods. An expensive mistake.

I suppose one could make the argument that Carter Kieboom should be in the Category 2; right now we don’t really have a 2B or a 3B on the roster and he could play either. But for now, i’m going on first impressions … and he did not make a good one early in the season.

Category 4: Options almost guaranteed to be used in 2018 – 7 current players

Player

2020 25-man opening day Guess

Service Time post 2019

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

Options left?

Notes

McGowin, Kyle

0.069

Sept 2018

2019

2

Williams, Austen

1.028

Sept 2018

none

3

Bourque, James

0.005

Nov 2018

2019

2

Barrera, Tres

0.022

Sept 2019

none

3

Barrett, Aaron

2.170

Nov 2013

2014

2

Noll, Jake

0.017

mar 2019

2019

2

I’m guessing that if any of these six players start on the active roster next opening day, then we’ve had a huge injury spike in Spring Training. Is Austen Williams healthy? Was Aaron Barrett‘s call-up more than just a feel-good story? We’ll see. Nonetheless, it seems like all 6 of these guys are in AAA next year to start.

Note: I wrote this prior to the rule-5 additions Ben Braymer. So technically this section is 7 current players, not 6. But I think its safe to say that our new rule5 additions are guaranteed to both start the year in the minors in 2020.

Which leaves us with…

Category 5: No Options Available – 10 current players of the 30 on the active roster.

Player

2020 25-man opening day Guess

Service Time post 2019

First Added to 40-man

Option Years Used

Options left?

Notes

Guerra, Javy

x

4.415

Nov 2009

?

0

Strickland, Hunter

x

4.163

Nov 2012

?

0

Taylor, Michael

x

4.129

Nov 2013

2014,2016,2019

0

Elias, Roenis

x

4.069

Mar 2014

?

0

Ross, Joe

x

4.018

June 2015

2015,2017,2019

0

Optioned for roster reasons in 2017.

Difo, Wilmer

x

3.016

Nov 2014

2015,2016,2018

0

Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count

Fedde, Erick

x

1.099

July 2017

2017,2018,2019

0

Sanchez, Adrian

1.083

June 2017

2017,2018,2019

0

Voth, Austin

0.127

Nov 2016

2017,2018,2019

0

Read, Raudy

0.063

Nov 2016

2017,2018,2019

0

So, this is kind of the point of this article. Which of these 10 players are going to stick, which are players the team has to make some tough decisions on? Lets go player by player in the order they are in this table (which is sorted by Service time):

Guerra, Javy: the team outrighted him mid-season, then recalled him the next day and he eventually made the post-season roster. An odd set of circumstances for a DFA. His overall 2019 numbers weren’t great; I wonder if he’s thrown into a general “RH middle reliever” competition in Spring Training 2020 and then either makes the team or gets DFA’d again. He can’t be outrighted again, so he’d have to choose whether to stay with the org.

Strickland, Hunter: seems like a guarantee to make the 2020 roster, irregardless of his option status.

Taylor, Michael: you have to think his time has some to an end with this team. Optioned to AA despite being on a $3.25M contract; they can’t possibly tender him for 2020 can they? Hit kind of an empty .250 this year (1 homer in 53 games/97 PAs), and is arbitration eligible so he’ll “earn” an increase in pay. But he played really well in the post-season, hitting two homers while covering for an injured Victor Robles. Do you tender him and pay him $4M to be a 4th outfielder? He’s undoubtedly solid defensively. But he offers little to no value as a PH. Do you save $4M and use Andrew Stevenson as a 4th OF instead?

Elias, Roenis: another guy like Strickland who wasn’t acquired to get cut. He’s on the 2020 roster … and oh, Davey Martinez? Don’t f*cking let him hit this year.

Ross, Joe: Well, the 2020 Nats need a 5th starter right now (and, technically also need a 2nd starter if they don’t resign Stephen Strasburg). Is Ross the leading candidate right now? I think so: in 6 starts last year after the team finally figured out that he couldn’t be a reliever he was competent: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA but a 1.455 whip that probably made his FIP look awful. Is that 5th starter material? I’ve always thought so … but now he has competition, mainly from two guys on this list. If he doesn’t make the rotation, I don’t know what you do with him. Clearly he can’t be a reliever; and if he is facing an options crunch DFA … nobody’s going to trade for him. They’ll just wait for him to declare FA and pounce.

Difo, Wilmer: everybody needs a utility guy who can play SS in a pinch; is Difo that guy for us? He has been, traditionally, for years now. But without options he’s gotta earn his spot. There’s a slew of guys out there who can do what he’s done: play competent middle infield and hit above the Mendoza line. I’m guessing, like Guerra above him, he’ll face competition from NRI veterans and Sanchez (see below) who do the same thing he does and if he makes the team so be it, otherwise he faces the DFA deadline come 4/1/20.

Fedde, Erick: this one is tough. Like Ross, he was called into reliever duty in 2019 and was not great at it. And he was in the rotation for a bit, with weaker numbers than Ross. Fedde now has 26 starts across three seasons with ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00. I know he has his defenders … and maybe you could argue that his relief numbers in 2019 weren’t as bad (he did have just a 1.132 FIP in 9 relief innings), but the clock has run out. What do you do here? I’m guessing he competes with Ross and Voth for the 5th starter (again, going under the assumption we re-sign Strasburg) and if he doesn’t make it he becomes the long-man in the pen and begins life as a reliever.

Sanchez, Adrian posted just an OPS+ figure of 23 for 2019. In 32 ABs he did not have one extra base hit. I’m guessing, like Difo, he’s in ST2020 competition and gets DFA’d on 4/1/20.

Voth, Austin: he’s got the least service time of any of the three starters he seems likely to compete with for the 5th starter job, but easily out-performed both of them in his 2019 starts. 8 starts, 3.30 ERA, 1.053 whip; he got it done this year. I think Voth has the inside track on the 5th starter job right now over both Ross and Fedde, which puts both of them at a disadvantage.

Read, Raudy; He’s got the least amount of service time here (just 63 days) and seems the least likely to make the opening day roster (i’d have to think the team is investing in a veteran FA catcher). I’ve got Read ahead of Taylor Gushue on the Catcher depth chart; they both hit well in AAA this year with the PCL parks and the inflated ball, but Read has also shown a solid bat all the way up the chain. Is that enough to get him onto the opening day roster? I don’t think so; i just don’t think he’s got enough experience to merit a 2x/week backup catcher role to a starter in Kurt Suzuki who’s on the wrong side of 35 and will miss time. I sense Read comes to ST, helps out with the catching load, sticks around just in case there’s an injury, then hits the DFA trail.

Summary of what I think eventually happens to all 10 guys in one (or two) words:

Guerra, Javy: DFA’d

Strickland, Hunter: 2020 bullpen

Taylor, Michael: Non-tendered

Elias, Roenis: 2020 bullpen

Ross, Joe: DFA’d

Difo, Wilmer: 2020 bench

Fedde, Erick: 2020 bullpen

Sanchez, Adrian DFA’d

Voth, Austin: 5th starter

Read, Raudy; DFA’d

I mean no offense to any of these players of course; its just that options crunches force teams into tough decisions. But I see half these guys getting shed at some point.

I saw a little throw-away post at USAtoday.com before the start of the 2016 baseball season: there were no less than 23 Cuban-born players on MLB rosters on 2016 opening day. And even more defected or were signed in the 2016 calendar year.

How awesome is that? I think its great that we have a huge contingent of Cubans playing in the league again and I wish that a generation hadn’t been lost due to politics. A good percentage of the teams in the majors now have at least one Cuban on their 40-man roster somewhere, and many have multiple IFA Cuban signees scattered in their lower minors. Not the Nats though; we got kinda burned by Yunesky Maya and then blew our IFA budget last year on some D.R. players; perhaps they’ll go after some of the rising talent next July 2 window.

I’ve long hoped for a unification of the Cuban National team to compete in the WBC; I think they’d take so much pride in their team it would really add to the event. However it looks as if the Cuban government will continue to hold a grudge and prevent any defectors from representing their country in the 2017 WBC. The WBC rosters were announced recently, and we’ll see some of these names in the analysis below for reasons that will become apparent soon.

So, since we won’t get a full-strength Cuban WBC team, I thought I’d take a stab at what could have been. I did a similar post in March of 2013 but with all the recent defections the roster looks much improved.

Manager: Fredi Gonzalez of the Atlanta Braves. The only Cuban-born hall of Famer Tony Perez can be the bench coach. They can bring out the likes of Tony Oliva and Camilo Pascual to be his assistants; they’re the most decorated Cuban ex-pros still living.

Pitching Coaches: Livan Hernandez and Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez: the brothers re-unite to teach the staff how to throw junk balls and make starts despite being hooked on Marlboro Reds.

Hitting Coaches: Jose Canseco, Rafael Palmeiro. These two can double as “Strength coaches.”

Positional Players:

C: Yasmani Grandal, starting catcher for the Dodgers, 2015 All-Star.

1B: Jose Abreu, 91 homers in his first three years in the MLB, Rookie of the Year in 2014, when he also made the All-Star team and won the Silver Slugger.

2B: Aledmys Diaz: debut in 2016 and made the All-Star team; prodution fell off so he “only” finished 5th in 2016 Rookie of the Year voting.

3B: Adonis Garcia: a solid bat for Atlanta at the corner despite debuting at age 30.

The reserves include a number of solid veteran guys like Alonso and Morales, middle infield cover from the likes of Hechavarria and Ramires, and plenty of OF coverage from players like Tomas and Olivera. And one of the top prospects in all of baseball (Yoan Moncada, the centerpiece of the Chris Sale trade this past off-season) can’t even crack this lineup; he may be your starting 3B before long. Perhaps Gurriel, a decade-long star in the Cuban series, should be starting at third over Garcia; we’ll see how he fares once he gets more time in Houston. Despaigne is the biggest player on this list who still hasn’t come to the MLB: he opted to take up the Cuban government’s relaxing of rules and has been playing in Japan recently. Yoelkys Cespedes is indeed Yoenis’ younger brother and is getting some attention for his abilities already.

Starting Pitchers

Oridismar Despaigne: he’s been knocked to the bullpen in the Majors, but someone has to start for the Cuban team. Career 4.89 ERA.

Raisel Iglesias: posted a 2.53 ERA in 2016 as he transitioned from the rotation to closer. He’s gotta start for this team though.

Ariel Miranda : 10 starts for Seattle last year with a 3.54 era; he may not make their rotation in 2017 but he’ll get time.

So, we’re a little light on starters. We may be reaching out to some domestic-based pitchers. Starter Lazaro Blanco just pitched two masterpieces in the Caribbean Series, shutting out the Dominican Republic team for 6 innings then giving up just one run in seven innings in the semis against Mexico. Their #2 and #3 starters (Vladimir Banos and Vladimir Garcia) weren’t half bad either. Freddy Alvarez got pummeled in his only series start but is on the WBC roster as a returning veteran and should see time. Perhaps we should also look at promising 18-yr old Cuban prospect Osvaldo Hernandez, who was just declared a FA and may sign a multi-million dollar deal soon.

Relievers

Aroldis Chapman (2009 WBC team member): the most dominant reliever in the game, 4-time All-star

Raudel Lazo: lefty reliever with Miami’s farm system; closed for their AAA squad and posted a 1.78 ERA in 2016 in New Orleans.

Yaisel Sierra: struggled in AA for the Dodgers, demoted to bullpen.

Armando Rivero, RP for Atlanta

Yadier Alvarez: LA’s #1 remaining prospect; only in high-A but well regarded.

Past Chapman and Hinojosa, there’s not much depth here either, so again we dip into the domestic-based players. Cuba depended on three late-innings relievers in the Caribbean series: Livan Moinelo, Miguel Lahera and Jose Garcia. All three are named to the official WBC roster.

In summary, the Consoildated all-Cuban team can bash the heck out of the ball … but will struggle on the mound until the 8th or 9th inning when Chapman can take over. But it’d be a fun team to watch play!

Did I miss anyone? Maybe; its impossible to keep track of the dozens of Cuban signings done over the last couple of years. Pipe up if you see someone mising.

Will the Nats be staring down Kershaw in the playoffs? Photo via wiki.

Here we are. After a crazy trade deadline in July, and an August and September that featured the division leaders (in most cases) solidifying their positions and extending their leads, the playoffs are upon us.

Lets take a look at the rotations of the playoff teams (despite the fact that the four Wild Card teams are just one-man pitching staffs until they win the play-in game). Who lines up best? For each team i’ve tried to line the pitchers up one through five, with the 5th guy being the one headed to the bullpen.

Just look at what the Dodgers have tried to do to keep their rotation afloat in terms of player acquisition over the past couple of years. I’d like to have their budget. They will have no less than eleven capable, MLB-experienced starters once they’re all healthy. Yes Kershaw is unbeatable, but as pointed out earlier this year, they are basically a .500 team otherwise. Their 4th and 5th starters have been below replacement for much of the past month but they’re getting back Ryu right in time for the playoffs. St. Louis’ rotation looks just as strong as it has been for the past few years; Wainwright quietly has 20 wins and a 2.38 ERA on the season. Lynn has been great. Only Miller has struggled but still has a league-average ERA+.

It is hard not to look at the Nationals’ rotation and claim they’re the deepest one-through-four, despite Gonzalez’s struggles. I’d take our #4 (Fister) over anyone else’s #4, I think our #3 matches up just as favorably to anyone els’es #3, and Strasburg has a 1.34 ERA in September as the #1.

NL Wild Card:

Pittsburgh: Liriano, Cole, Locke, Volquez, Worley (Morton dinged up late Sept, made way for Cole).

San Francisco: Bumgarner, Hudson, Petit, Vogelsong, Peavy(Lincecum to bullpen for Petit, Cain out all year)

The NL WC pitching match-up will be Bumgarner-Liriano. Both teams manipulated their rotations at season’s end to preserve their aces for the coin-flip game. We’ll do a separate prediction piece.

The Braves fell so far, so badly in September that they were nearly surpassed by the lowly NY Mets for 2nd place in the NL East. That’s crazy. But they still remain here as an also-ran because they were in the wild card race until mid-September. I still think it is crazy what they were able to accomplish given the starting pitcher injuries they suffered in spring training and don’t quite understand why Frank Wren was fired. If you want to fire him for his crummy FA contracts so be it; but the man engineered a team that made the playoffs three of the past five years. Harsh treatment if you ask me. Insider comments seem to think that Wren lost an internal power-struggle involving Fredi Gonzalez.

It is hard to look at these rotations and comprehend where these teams currently stand:

How is Baltimore leading the AL East by 12 games? None of these guys are a league-wide “Ace.”

How is Detroit not pulling away from the AL Central with this collection of arms? Of course, you could ask this question of Detroit over and again the past few years; with a stacked lineup and stacked rotation they have just barely won their (usually) weak division year after year.

How does Los Angeles have the best record in the majors with a non-drafted FA and a waiver claim in their Sept rotation? Would you favor this rotation over Detroit’s?

I guess it doesn’t matter; these teams have bashed their way to their titles and should continue to hit in the post-season. Apparently the O’s aren’t going to go with Gausman in their playoff rotation despite his good seasonal numbers. It may be a case of veteran manager going with the veterans, as Gausman’s numbers are pretty much in line with most of the rest of the Baltimore rotation. The injury to Richards really hurts the Angels: Weaver may be close to an Ace but Wilson showed he is hittable in the post-season and lord knows what will happen when LA has to throw their #3 and #4 choices.

AL Wild Cards:

Kansas City: Shields, Duffy, Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas

Oakland: Grey, Samardzija, Lester, Hammel, Kazmir

AL Wild Card looks like a knock-out match-up of Shields and Lester; the A’s burned Grey yesterday to get the win that put them in the playoffs. Oakland has to be kicking themselves; how did they go from (easily) the best team in the majors for the first half to struggling to hang onto the WC spot? On paper replacing 3/5ths of the rotation (out with Chavez, Milone, Pomeranz and Straily, in with Samardzija, Lester and Hammel) sounded like a great idea … but to me the team’s chemistry was clearly un-balanced. At least they held on to the spot and avoiding a one-game play-in against Felix Hernandez.

AL Also-Rans:

Seattle: Hernandez, Walker, Iwakuma, Paxton, Young (Elias out for year)

New York: McCarthy, Greene, Kuroda, Capuano, Pineda (with Tanakafinally coming back at season’s end. Nova and Sabathia gone all year with injuries).

All Seattle needed to do was *get* to the wild card game … and they’d have great odds of advancing behind ace Hernandez. But struggled to the finish line. Meanwhile Cleveland and New York would have been mentioned here a week ago, but both squads just ran out of time to make comebacks. I’ll give NY credit: they played 7 games better than their pythagorean record with huge chunks of their rotation gone for the season and depending on guys who’s names I had to look up.

This year’s MLB trade deadline was crazy. Never before have so many big-time names moved teams. And certainly I cannot remember so many big-time pitchers relocating mid-season as well.

Lets look at the playoff contender rotations as they stand right now, with Trade deadline acquisitions highlighted in blue.

NL

Washington: Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Fister, Roark

Atlanta: Teheran, Minor, Santana, Harang, Wood

Milwaukee: Lohse, Garza, Gallardo, Peralta, Nelson

Cincinnati: Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Simon

St. Louis: Wainwright, Masterson, Lackey, Lynn, Miller

Pittsburgh: Liriano, Morton, Locke, Volquez, Worley

Los Angeles: Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Beckett, Haren

San Francisco: Bumgarner, Hudson, Lincecum, Vogelsong, Peavy

St. Louis clearly did the most in the NL, acquiring two mid-rotation guys to help cover for the injured Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia, but it is hard to look at their rotation and say they’d have the advantage over some of their potential playoff rivals. San Francisco lost its ace (thought he hasn’t pitched like an Ace since signing his new deal) Matt Cain, and his replacement was not inspiring confidence (Yusmiero Petit), so they added former Cy Young winner Peavy (who is pitching better than his 1-11 W/L record .. but not a lot better). Otherwise the NL playoff contenders mostly stood pat. There was some small surprise that the free-spending Dodgers wouldn’t try to improve upon the suddenly underperforming Josh Beckett and/or the “fool-me-once” Dan Haren. They’ll struggle to get through the #3 and #4 starts of their planned playoff rotation to get back to their co-aces Kershaw and Greinke (who was good but not shut-down in last year’s playoffs). The home-town Nats may find themselves with an uncomfortable decision to make if they make the playoffs; which starter to send to the pen? Roark is the least renound and the least tenured … but he has clearly been more effective than other rotation members.

It continues to amaze that the Braves are competing, given the losses they’ve faced in their rotation. They are missing (arguably) their planned #2, #3 and #5 starters in Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd but are getting by thanks to two mid-spring acquisitions (Santana and Harang) and the surprise performances of youngsters Wood and David Hale (who didn’t merit his demotion to the bullpen).

AL

Baltimore: Tillman, Norris, Chen, Gonzalez, Gausman

Toronto: Buehrle, Dickey, Happ, Strohman, Hutchinson

New York: Kuroda, Phelps, Capuano, Greene, McCarthy

Detroit: Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, Price, Porcello

Kansas City: Shields, Duffy, Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas

Oakland: Grey, Samardzija, Lester, Hammel, Kazmir

Los Angeles: Weaver, Wilson, Richards, Shoemaker, Santiago

Seattle: Hernandez, Iwakuma, Paxton, Elias, Young

I didn’t include fringe playoff contenders such as Cleveland or Tampa Bay here; both of those rotations were purged and weakened, and their odds of catching one of these listed WC contendors is long. Oakland completely re-made their rotation here, attempting to keep up with Detroit, who now features the last three AL Cy Young winners to go along with Sanchez (who finished 4th last year in a season where he led the league in both ERA and FIP). That’s quite a lineup. Meanwhile Seattle likely finishes 10 games back of the Angels and could end up facing them in the coin-flip wild-card game … and could end up throwing the best pitcher in the AL at them (which has been noted as a significant down-side to the 2nd wild-card matchup; who wants to see a team lose out to a divisional rival that they bested by so many games in a play-in game?).

New York is the “Atlanta” of the AL this year; they currently have four planned rotation members on the D/L and (likely) out for the year (CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka). Their 4th and 5th starters were a 14th and 15th round pick respectively. They’ve been outscored by nearly 30 runs on the year yet somehow have a winning record. It seems like just a matter of time before their luck runs out and they settle back below .500.

Who would you rather go to war with, Detroit or Oakland’s rotation? Probably Detroit’s rotation, given its depth one to four. But the ALCS could be one heck of a series.