Weather Analysis 11-9-12

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN. JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING. IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Light rain and light snow still on track for this weekend. Some areas in central and north central will experience a period of freezing rain before the change over. This is behind the cold front Saturday night and I don’t foresee it lasting very long. Before then, southeast KELOLAND will most likely have rain late Saturday afternoon and evening while western SD has light snow but strong winds. I like what the frontogenesis is doing from the GFS, I’ll post them below. Highest QPF amounts in the wintry mix prone area is Mobridge, with a change over on the GFS at around a third of liquid. Around three inches in north central SD not out of the question. South central is still around a tenth to two tenths, so one to two will be possible there. Actual QPF numbers of a quarter to .17” shows up in Pierre, so an inch or two will also be possible there. Snow amounts east of the James will be less than a half inch.

Cold air pours in for Sunday and I wouldn’t be surprised for falling or steady temps. Highs mainly in the 20s. Aside from slowly warming temps, not much to report for next week. The upper level low on the models from yesterday is still there for Friday, but moisture is limited. I’d rather see more consistency, besides I wouldn’t be surprised if that feature slows down.

Frontogenesis starts in western SD by Saturday 18z.

Frontogenesis really gets going during the evening; this is when a lot of the chance over will occur in central and western SD. Notice higher QPF in central and north central SD.

Frontogenesis moves into eastern SD by Sunday 6z. 850 fronto still going west of James.