tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post9124265889553033471..comments2019-01-21T12:23:09.221-08:00Comments on Cassandra's Legacy: An Open letter to the School of Public Health, UQ, re: the looming net energy cliffUgo Bardinoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-6610100814310371802018-01-07T18:41:36.615-08:002018-01-07T18:41:36.615-08:00Nice to see that many people better placed in our ...Nice to see that many people better placed in our hierarchies of importance have tried to raise the alarms. My personal failures are then insignificant. Our fore-knowledge of disaster is in the subconscious of many people, but we are animals that live in the current systems. The insouciance of elites is literally of biblical proportions, and the wrath of god (in reality physics and complexity) will apply to all of us and our descendants, which is what I picked up from younger years of biblical literature study. No consolation really. The implication is that everyone with more than average common sense secretly knew they were breaking system laws of sustainability, but as a social organisms in competitive short term survival mode we had to break the rules.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-81018135006524363912018-01-02T19:59:50.916-08:002018-01-02T19:59:50.916-08:00Dear Dr Chia,
You may be interested to know that ...Dear Dr Chia,<br /><br />You may be interested to know that I applied for the position of Associate Professor of Environmental Health at UQ in 2017. One of the stated reasons for my rejection was that my major research interest (Limits to Growth and health) was of no interest to them.<br /><br />Some of my many (more than 50) papers and chapters relevant to this topic can be accessed at http://colindbutler.weebly.com/<br /><br />Congratulations!<br /><br />Adjunct Prof Colin D ButlerColin Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10414537060472660654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-12272391473541690832017-12-31T17:41:35.147-08:002017-12-31T17:41:35.147-08:00Your graph indicates an EROEI of over 10 for Algal...Your graph indicates an EROEI of over 10 for Algal Biofuels. Do you have a source for that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-8229565111968277482017-12-31T14:50:52.382-08:002017-12-31T14:50:52.382-08:00I would be very interested in knowing how you rest...I would be very interested in knowing how you restructured your invstments.Yvan Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14810932887954689424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-2577068214905291332017-12-31T10:21:05.165-08:002017-12-31T10:21:05.165-08:00Yes, of course, Ugo. We all have our moments. I lo...Yes, of course, Ugo. We all have our moments. I look forward to reading your blog and all the comments next year!<br />PhilPhil Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16992266289232459952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-17862654818944444502017-12-31T08:11:55.112-08:002017-12-31T08:11:55.112-08:00Yes, the comment by anonymous2 is nothing more tha...Yes, the comment by anonymous2 is nothing more than a passing comment. Maybe I shouldn-t have let it pass but, in the end, it makes little difference. We seem to be all lost in the face of the enormous things happening around us and some of us react a little strangely. So it goes<br />Ugo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-56984158345144764902017-12-31T07:16:41.082-08:002017-12-31T07:16:41.082-08:00The famous physicist Stephen Hawking said a few ye...The famous physicist Stephen Hawking said a few years ago, that humanity has 1000 years left to escape the looming catastrophies on Earth. In his thinking, space and other planets are the solution to our problems. Just this summer, he revised his prediction, now saying that humanity has only 300 years left to escape Earth into space. <br /><br />Indeed, on a finite planet, there are only finite resources. So any form of energy relying on mining mineral resources is destined for failure sooner or later. The only alternative is either moving on to other planets and continue the game of extracting finite resources or, to learn to live within the limits of scarcity dictated by the size of our planet. The sun will continue to radiate solar energy for millions of years, which for practical purposes, means forever. In addition, the amount of solar energy hitting the earth is much larger than the energy requirements of humanity. So instead of lamnenting about peak oil and its consequences, we should be thinking about strategies how to increase the rate of captured and stored solar energy. In addition, we need to dramatically increase the efficiency of energy usage. Houses can be built which do not need energy for heating or cooling. Lots of energy is wasted in unnecessary transportation. We need more people working on these problems and fewer people writing on peak oil issues. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-20955843572893544472017-12-31T06:44:14.764-08:002017-12-31T06:44:14.764-08:00I doubt that the climate change on the surface of ...I doubt that the climate change on the surface of the earth is due to the fact that the oil pumped out of the deeper layers of the earth&#39;s crust is warmer than the surface of the earth. The volumes in question are not big enough in order to make a difference.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-61118974426844981292017-12-31T06:28:03.839-08:002017-12-31T06:28:03.839-08:00Anonymous 2
I know it&#39;s only passing comments...Anonymous 2 <br />I know it&#39;s only passing comments on a blog but it&#39;s a sad note to take with me into 2018: I haven&#39;t a clue what you are trying to say. In particular, you write: &quot;Oil extraction results in a heating of the earth surface, because oil is warmer than the earth surface.&quot; <br />I think, on the other hand,I understand the difference between &#39;snowball earth&#39; and the surface / atmospheric temperatures controlled by water vapour and regulated by trace non-condensing gases retaining solar input of radiation. <br /><br />Geffrey Chia <br /> As predicted in the 1980s and early 1990s, it has been a slow business seeing the &#39;climate signal&#39; rise very gradually above the &#39;climate noise&#39; of ‘normal weather’. Earlier climate science got it about right that high confidence that reality matched the predictive models would emerge sometime after the year 2000. I think sadly Geoffrey Chia makes an exaggerated claim about what we have seen so far in the way of storm, tempest and fire. Can somebody help him?<br />Similarly, the mix of remaining fuels available to affluent countries, admittedly deteriorating, seems adequate to prop up public utilities for a while yet. Australia like my own country has serious public health issues related to lifestyle and modernised &#39;poverty&#39; in late-phase industrialised urban life. ‘Emergency’ failures need preparation, but, short of war, society–wide breakdown like climate change is far more likely to be gradual over generations; i.e. removal of modern conveniences. Interestingly, Australia could learn that a leaner life as demonstrated in some poorer countries could turn round many health issues and at the same time prepare them for a fitter future as the oil age winds down.<br />best for next year<br />Phil<br />Phil Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16992266289232459952noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-68241838204451978762017-12-31T00:00:01.732-08:002017-12-31T00:00:01.732-08:00Comment regarding the laws of physics and the loom...Comment regarding the laws of physics and the looming net energy cliff:<br />The amount of energy required for the extraction of oil can be made understandable in the following way:<br />Earth interior and exterior are in thermal equilibrium, originated in millions of years. (except volcanic areas). This equilibrium is masked by a thermal gradient of about 35 K/1000m. Without human intervention the equilibrium and the gradient will last for further millions of years.<br /><br />If the earth surface gets heated and the interior gets cooled, the whole heat to do that must be delivered by external energy sources. The warmer the surface gets, the colder the interior gets, the more energy is necessary to overcome the temperature difference.<br /><br />It is the same as with an electronics capacitator. The work to load it is proportional to the voltage it already has. The stored energy is ½ C U^2.<br /><br />Oil extraction results in a heating of the earth surface, because oil is warmer than the earth surface. So we expect an always increasing temperature difference and an always increasing work to squeeze the oil out of the earth. At some point in time the work required will be as large as the chemical energy of the oil. To calculate this work the entropy rate balance equation for control volumes, which is the mathematical formulation of the second law of thermodynamics, can be used. This equation indeed results in a very steep cliff.<br /><br />A happy new year to all writing for and reading this blog !<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-31851582617303002342017-12-30T23:18:09.244-08:002017-12-30T23:18:09.244-08:00Peak Oil protagonists have been warning us for dec...Peak Oil protagonists have been warning us for decades starting all the way back to King M Hubbard himself. The simple truth is that they all have been wrong regarding the timing question. Undoubtedly, they will be proven right eventually. The real question is therefore how should we live in view of the inevitable depletion ? There are no really good answers to this important question. I have been following the peak oil debate for 20 years. It is unlikely that my life will be affected by the final outcome since I am already over 70 years old with a remaining life expectancy of perhaps 15 years. I tried to take advantage of my understanding of peak oil by restructuring my investments. The end result was that I suffered from huge losses by making wrong bets, bets I would never have made if I did not know about the peak oil issue. So knowing a lot about peak oil is not necesserily the best preparation for the uncertain future. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-19175168375167847062017-12-29T13:11:39.133-08:002017-12-29T13:11:39.133-08:00Consumption has been flat for at least two years. ...Consumption has been flat for at least two years. It is all to be seen whether this October blip means anything more than a blipUgo Bardihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18231859786466899924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4342811133328800388.post-30097388501808660662017-12-29T10:57:47.421-08:002017-12-29T10:57:47.421-08:00US natural gas just hit another all time record:
...US natural gas just hit another all time record:<br /><br />https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2m.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com