PGA The First Tee: Quicken Loans National

Recap

This past week will be a week to forget and move on. You make a nice player pool, and you're confident going to bed on Wednesday night, thinking you could have a chance this week. Sadly, that wasn't the case. I had 14 players in the pool and exactly half missed the cut and about 5 of them missed the cut by only 1 stroke! It was just one of those weeks that backed fired even though we had some course history guys and guys coming in with good form, missing the cut. Here's a look at my total exposure for the week and a look at my best lineup.

Player

Exposure % (5 Lineups)

Brendan Steele

80

Emiliano Grillo

80

Keegan Bradley

60

Justin Thomas

60

Patrick Reed

40

Chez Reavie

40

Troy Merritt

40

Bubba Watson

40

Webb Simpson

40

Austin Cook

40

Abraham Ancer

20

Sam Ryder

20

Russell Knox

20

Jamie Lovemark

20

Best Lineup

DK Points

Finish Position

Austin Cook

28.5

MC

Emiliano Grillo

84.5

T19

Sam Ryder

71

T26

Brendan Steele

29.5

MC

Justin Thomas

69

T56

Bubba Watson

121.5

1

As you can see, there's really nothing wrong with this when it was built on Wednesday. Looking back, I know Steele hasn't been on form lately and what I should've done was to drop Austin Cook and drop Steele for Stewart Cink who finished T2 and had 115.5 points and replace Cook with Henley who finished T6 and had 94.5 points. Steele and Cook had a total of 58 points where as Cink and Henley had a total of 210 points for a difference of 152 for a total of 556 which would've finished just outside the top 500 in the $5. Just like last week and a couple of weeks before, I'm usually off by 2 golfers in my player pool from having a positive R.O.I. The process is there, it's just a matter of time and now we're almost at the 1-year anniversary of my 2nd place finish in the $4. Congrats to Bubba for his 3rd win of the season! Onto the Quicken Loans!

This Week

This week we are at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms for the Quicken Loans. The course is a Par 70: 7,107 yards. Tiger is back as a host and as a player after missing the cut at the U.S. Open by 2 shots, mainly because of the 1st hole. Rickie Fowler is the headliner in this week's field along side Tiger Woods. Those two are your top 2 favourites in the odds. This is the second year this tournament has been at this course and Kyle Stanley is your defending champion. So, for course history, I'm just looking at last year and putting more emphasis on recent form. For stats, I'm going back to B.O.B.% and then using SG: Putting as a tie breaker again. The other stats that I'm looking at are SG: Approach the Green; Proximity; SG: Around the Green; and SG: Par 4 scoring.

Cash Plays

Jimmy Walker ($9,600) – Walker is back into form after a rough stretch from last year and into the earlier part of this year. He looks healthy again after battling Lyme disease. In his last 6 starts, he has 5 top 20 finishes and 3 top 10s. For stats, he's 11th in the field for B.O.B.%; 14th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; and 16th in the field for Proximity. With missing cut here last year, I'm going to throw that out the window since he was battling the disease around this time last year.

Charles Howell III ($8,900) – CH3 is back for us to use in cash and it's a good feeling. He is on form coming into this week, he has 5 top 30 finishes in his last 6 starts and hasn't missed a cut since the Honda, which is the only miss cut in 2018. For stats, he's 10th in the field for SG: Around the Green; 16th in the field for SG: Approach the Green; and 31st in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring. With a runner up finish here, last year, he should be a popular play this week.

Jamie Lovemark ($8,300) – Lovemark looks healthy and is playing consistent again. He has 2 top 20 finishes in his last 3 starts. For stats, he's 3rd in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; 5th in the field for SG: Around the Green; and 9th in the field for B.O.B.%. He didn't play here last year and with his recent play, he's going to be my dark horse this week.

GPP Plays

J.B. Holmes ($10,000) – Holmes is quietly knocking on the door for his first win in 2018. He's finished 2nd last week and 3rd at the St. Jude. He did make the cut here last year, finishing 68th. He is a much better player now then he was last year, so he should have no problems this week. For stats, he's 12th in the field for SG: Around the Green; 17th in the field for B.O.B.%; and 27th in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring.

Zac Blair ($7,100) – He's made his last 3 cuts in a row, finishing in the top 50 in all 3, so he's giving you the placement points. He finished in the top 30 here last year. For stats, he's 15th in the field for Proximity; 23rd in the field for SG: Par 4 scoring; and 24th in the field for SG: Putting. As of now, he's my cheapest guy on the board.

Exposure

Cash Games: For cash games, I like to play the small field 50/50s, for example, anything less than 100 entrants. I tend to make just 1 lineup and that lineup will have the 6 golfers who I think will have the best chance of making it to the weekend and have the upside of a top 10 finish.

3 Entry Max GPPs: For these tournaments, think of it as one lineup for cash, one for leagues and one that is completely different than the first 2. This technique is very common among the DFS community and even the DFS pros. Just start of with your cash lineup then use a “2 vs. 2" strategy for the other lineups.

20 – 150 Max GPPs: With these, you can have a player pool anywhere from 15-100 players. For 20 max GPPS, I tend to stay closer to 15-18 golfers in my pool. For 150 max GPPs, I recommend using around 25-30 golfers.

Weather

As of Monday afternoon, there doesn't seem to be an advantage for any wave of tee times. It just looks like a pleasant weather to play golf and try and shoot low numbers. If there are any changes, I will update them via twitter.