Forget the Polls—Many Signs Point to Trump Win

At least artificial intelligence thinks Donald Trump will win. No kidding. That really is the story. CNBC reports that Trump is more popular in 2016 than Barack Obama was in 2008. Pouring over millions of communications, a computer has decided that Trump’s popularity makes him a shoo-in for the presidency.

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama’s peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.

Rai said that his AI system shows that the candidate in each election who had leading engagement data ended up winning the election.

“If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC. . .

“While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer’s biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer and develop expert systems without discarding any data,” Rai said.

Note that we earlier reported on Professor Allan Lichtman, whose 13-point model named Trump the sure bet in this year’s election. That article also explained that movement of the stock market is also predicting a Trump win.

“We are gonna win,” Trump said. If he wasn’t absolutely sure that he’d clinch at least 270 electoral votes, Trump said he’d shift his language by vowing to “try to win” without guaranteeing it. . .

Surveying the electoral map, Trump offered a much brighter forecast than the one suggested by polls. . .”I think we’re going to do fantastically in Pennsylvania. . .I think we’re winning North Carolina. . .I think we will soon be up in New Hampshire,” he said. . . Trump also said that his margin of victory in Florida would be larger than the two percentage point lead that a new Bloomberg Politics poll has him beating Clinton. “I think we’re winning Florida actually by much more than your poll says. You just have us two points up,” he said. . .

While brimming with confidence about the state of the race and brimming with energy despite his breakneck campaign schedule, Trump was less sure about his ability to effectively communicate to enough voters.

“I don’t know if I’m a great messenger, but the message is absolutely the right message,” he said.

His movement was gaining an incredible amount of strength in the closing days, strength that would prove decisive at the ballot box. His evidence? At a rally this week, local authorities refused to further pack a venue, leaving a long line of supporters outside.

But don’t take Trump’s word for it. And if you don’t like the high-tech forecast of MogAI, there’s another foolproof forecaster to check: sale of Halloween masks.

Costume emporium Spirit Halloween made headlines when they recently reported that Donald Trump masks were outselling Hillary Clinton masks. The company maintains their Mask Index, which tracks and compares the sales of their presidential candidate masks, and they claim to have “accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 based on their top selling candidate mask.”

If we’re to believe Spirit Halloween’s claims, that means we’ll be singing “Hail to the Chief” to President Donald J. Trump come November 9 — an outcome that is either a trick or a treat, depending on who you ask. . .

Meanwhile, Rubie’s, the world’s largest designer and manufacturer of Halloween costumes, experienced a similar three-to-one ratio in favor of its Donald Trump masks, according to a Washington Post report.

Meanwhile, Primary Model predicts Trump will win, with an 87% to 99% certainty. Their model has been predicting elections since 1912, and has been five-for-five since 1996. Note that the predictions were made even before the nominees won their primaries.

It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.

In a match-up between the Republican primary winner and each of the Democratic contenders, Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote. He would defeat Bernie Sanders by 57.7% to 42.3%.

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.

Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance. It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft. As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.

Note that the model also forecast that either Hillary Clinton OR Bernie Sanders would defeat ANY Republican who might have been nominated instead of Trump.

It is possible, of course, that the Republican Party will not nominate Trump as its presidential candidate. If the nomination were to go to Marco Rubio instead the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:

It is 86% certain that Hillary Clinton will defeat Marco Rubio. Clinton will get 52.4% and Rubio 47.6% of the two party vote.

According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.

In the event that the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton, while the GOP nominates Marco Rubio, the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:

It is 89% certain that Marco Rubio will defeat Bernie Sanders. Rubio will get 52.8% and Sanders 47.2% of the two party vote.

According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Sanders.

There you have it folks. According to artificial intelligence, political trends, a professor’s model, the stock market, Donald Trump himself, non-scientific social behavior, and a historical model, Donald Trump is assured of being our next president.

Goethe Behr is a Contributing Editor and Moderator at Election Central. He started out posting during the 2008 election, became more active during 2012, and very active in 2016. He has been a political junkie since the 1950s and enjoys adding a historical perspective.

125 COMMENTS

Keep in saying you aren’t supporting Trump and then putting out this kind of tripe. This type of article, when it is just for fun is one thing. Treating this kind of “predicting” as serious information shows your bias.

I’m going to level with you..Most people don’t admit they are voting for Trump unless they know you are.We feel we are going to be shamed but all you have to do is look at the competitive size of the rallies and see Trump will win.

Sanders was never a Democrat. Look at his registration for reelection to the Senate. He was using the Democratic party because, in his own words he would not have gotten enough attention as an independent. He lost fairly by popular vote and pledged delegates. You Trumpets are just mad because the democrats were smarter and kept control of our party and weren’t taken over by our Trump (Sanders).

Wrong!
Both parties tried to rig their primaries, but the rebublocrats weren’t near as corrupt as the destructocrats, and neither side saw Trump coming.
Trump has exiled the globalist neocons from the party, and he will now throw globalist Hillary into prison.
Trump will save us all.

I guess it was hard for you to notice how the democrats got caught red handed rigging their primary, Jeb! being humiliatingly defeated, the press caught red handed giving debate questions to Hillary, the “justice” department pardoning Hillary on an an airport Tarmac, and Clinton goons paying mentally unstable bums to pick fights at Trump rallies, huh?
It was probably pretty hard for you to catch all that with your head up hillarys….wherever.

I don’t think it is a question of being ashamed to vote for Trump. It is a question of being afraid of what Clinton supporters would do if they found out, like threat to person, property or livelihood.

That’s really funny. Have you ever heard of anyone being beat up at a Clinton rally? Have you ever eard a Clinton supporter, or Clinton herself say that Trump should be assasinated? Ask the 69 year old woman who was knocked out at a Trump rally who’s supporters are violent.

Remember, we are the ones for gun control, not for open carry or concealed carry. We are not likely to be armed and thinking we can take on the world with our own little arsenal.

Remember, Clinton supporters are only threatening one thing. That is that we will vote that narcissistic, misygonistic, homophobic, bigot down and send him home with his tail between his legs, just as he deserves.

Or disgraceful harassment of a homeless woman for disagreeing with defacement of Trump’s star on Hollywood boulevard?

I could go on. These are widely reported incidents, even in the mainstream press. I have included two WP links, which is open in its democratic party support. Step outside your cozy narrative and wake up.

Incidents of incivility have been common, and they have been from both sides. Yes, the NC office was bombed, but we don’t know by whom–and Democrats raised money to rebuild it. Likewise, there was the bombing with “Trump” left behind. Again, we don’t know who did it, but the nastiness this year has been without precedent, and is on both sides.

Says politico – one of main Hillary sycophants. Only a nitwit believes those liars.

Watch the PV videos. There is no question who those goons are, and what their trying to do.
No question they were trying to rig the election.
None!
I dare you to watch them.
You will feel like a fool for supporting Hillary if you do.
I dare you!

The videos will be used as valid evidence at multiple trials.
They’ve already convicted Hillary in the court of public opinion, and they are just the tip of the iceberg when the RICO investigation starts.
The whole corrupt machine of the destructocrats is about to be blown up when Trump takes over the White House.
America can’t wait to watch.
Just the thought of it was good for 30 million extra Trump votes.

merccougar89,- I have been pro-Trump, since I first heard him speak.
I’ve heard others state the same thing, but don’t understand why anyone would be ashamed to say that.
Wanting what he does, for this country, is a good thing & no one should hold back, if that is what they believe.

Valerie: It’s not that people are “ashamed” to vote Trump. They’re just embarrassed to say so, because there has been so much sleaze in the campaign. The person knows he or she will be jumped on, so it’s easier just not to mention it.

Goethe, – Well it certainly is unfortunate, so much
sleaze in the campaign, & candidates can’t be above all that. – It didn’t start with Trump, however, who I saw as defending himself – because if he DIDN’T……!
– So- since no one, ultimately, took the high road, there really shouldn’t be any awkwardness in people -openly claiming their support for Trump…any more than his opponent..

I think shame is the wrong word here. Many trump supporters are afraid of Clinton supporters. They are afraid of retaliation of some kind, the kind with real tangible costs, like loss of income or damage to property.

LOL! What a good laugh this morning. Seriously? What the hell do you think the media has been doing for that she/man for the last year. Who cares if someone uses the same propaganda tactics for Trump. I say kudos to anyone who will turn the tables. I would vote for Gumby before I would vote for that lying, traitor. Trumps only charge is he is rich and may have had shady business dealings. Hellary lied to the FBI, a crime in itself, put US secrets at risk, and knew information she didn’t act on in order to save our soldiers in Benghazi. Yeah, she really loves her country. (I encourage everyone to watch ALL of the FBI’s questioning on each of these charges she has been in front of them for) As for Trumps womanizing…..Those Bimbos that came forward nearly a decade later are full of it. All of them are the type to sleep with anything in order to get to the top anyway. I am sure they were distraught at his remarks. (insert sarcasm) My goodness..poor babies were so shaken they couldn’t even speak about it for six to ten years later. What a crock!

Generally speaking, abused people don’t want anyone to know. Sometimes, they think they may have done something to invite an attack. It is really not uncommon for someone to hide it, but if someone else comes forward, they finally can, too.

I’m not arguing whether Trump is guilty or not. I’m just saying the argument that a “nobody” would/could jump right up to fight a billionaire (known for litigating anything) doesn’t hold water.

I don’t think that any previous predictive methods like this work because their has never been a candidate such as T.Rump that has made such a travesty of this election process. AI analysis of social media engagement is skewed because his followers troll sites with racist, misogynistic insults, and these posts, tweets etc are often from them same people over and over again. I have encountered them repeatedly. As to Donald Trump being convinced that he will win, he is also convinced that women will let him do anything to them because he’s a celebrity. Sale of Halloween masks? His sell more because his is the most scary clown in history, and, if we are going to use that model then Harley Quinn is going to be president. As to that prediction from Primary model made before the nominees won their primaries, really? What data is that based on? Does the cycle of Presidential elections take into account the popularity of this particular incumbent? Lord I will be glad when this is over so that our country can stop being the laughingstock of the rest of the world.

Thank you for pointing that out. I read that article, but not closely, although I do remember reading that, now that you mention it. I just think that these kind of predictions are insane in an election year where a candidate such as Trump exists. There has never been anything like him. And , yes I did mean any THING.

Also I would like to point out that AI does not factor for tone, it just sees any interaction on Twitter about trump as an engagement. So if someone is posting something negative about trump, it will just register as an engagement

Yes, I read the other day that T.Rump himself may be behind several fake accounts. People are mentioning that some of the tweets from his account and others contain exactly the same wording. By the way, I’m with you on his winning, I will never accept him as my president! EVER!

True, although I still don’t believe he will win. And honestly I think that it will be him ( if elected) , that will be impeached as soon as he is sworn in. Some remaining skeleton in his closet is going to come rattling out.

Did the AI, professor, stock market or anything else take into account that Billary is the most despised Democratic candidate in probably ever. I wonder if any of these predictors know that she has been under constant scrutiny as well as having been and is once again under FBI investigation??

If you ask me and many, many others she is more PRISON MATERIAL than presidential material. Some of these models didn’t factor in the ultimate opponent for the Wicked Witch, that would be BEELZEBUB himself. She would lose to him as well.?

All you Trump haters, be ready for to sing the praises of president Trump on November the ninth.?

What do you mean IF HE WINS? Considering he is running against the most untrustworthy, corrupt, lying, phony, vile, reprehensible POS ever to walk the face of the Earth, I think he is a shoo-in.

It does however concern me that some of the electorate are so blind. I kind of understand loyalty to a party or ideology, but for so many to be bamboozled leaves me concerned. Alas you can’t do much with loyal SHEEPLE. They just follow blindly with nary a thought between their ears.

I agree with you that the reopening of the investigation against Clinton just 11 days before the election is a little surprising. But how surprising was it that the ACCESS HOLLYWOOD tape was released two days before the second debate? That wasn’t an investigation, it was a smear tactic by the Clinton campaign against Trump.?

The FBI is a federal bureau and shouldn’t be politically biased. The FBI has to by law investigate any hint of corruption, unless of course to save your crooked candidate you want the law broken.?

This time the Clinton campaign cannot blame the Russians for trying to meddle with the election. You have to agree that all criminals eventually trip up. Could it be that we are seeing the BEGINNING OF THE END of the CLINTON CRIME FAMILY??

Straight Shooter ,-About reopening the investigation against Clinton, just 11 days before the election:
Better LATE than never,. Not positive, but I think it likely – such MAJOR stuff was discovered, – that people may need to cover themselves – in the event that this later, surfaces. I also hear that there was conflict & outrage in the dept. – which thinking could have contributed to pursuing this.
For the sake of our country, per your mention, I do hope we see a BEGINNING of an END, to a CRIME FAMILY.

I question the wording. In a legal case, when a judge makes a ruling with prejudice, then yes, the case is closed. But the Federal Bureau of “Investigation” investigates all the time. It may have been appropriate to tell Congress that new emails had been found, which will be reviewed. Period. But to say that they are “reopening the investigation” is deep innuendo that there is evidence which would necessarily change his earlier decision that the evidence at that time did not merit prosecution.

According to Newsweek (although how would they know?)–NONE of the emails were either FROM nor TO Hillary. If tht is the case, this episode is really, really going to look bad for Comey.

I vote democrat because I agree with the democratic platform, I do not blindly follow anyone . MY decisions are based on what I feel is right, period! I am not going to cry rigged, or scream voter fraud if HRC loses, something I don’t believe will happen, by the way. Oh and one more thing, to use your own words about who would be a good opponent for HRC, BEELZEBUB, I am CERTAIN she already is doing that.

And I thought I was agreeing with your article, silly me. I did throw in some embellishments that were ANTI CLINTON. But I don’t think I contradicted you or your articles assertion that Trump was going to defeat Clinton.

IT observers estimated that social media activity during the third debate showed the Trump campaign is using four times more ‘bots’ (automated accounts) to generate tweets than the Clinton team. If this is not accounted for in the MogIA process, then it, sorry ‘she’, will be delivering flawed results.

The stock markets and bookmakers here in the UK were indicating a Remain vote in the weeks before the EU referendum. There was a massive spike upwards in the value of sterling in the three days before. They were wrong, along with the polls, and the value of sterling crashed drastically. Gallup has taken the decision not to publish any polls on the Presidential election – they are carrying on with polling activity only to identify where the errors are occurring in the system, as the EU poll was just one big event that pollsters got wrong in the last year.

The “Brexit effect” is probably a hoax. Yes, the gamblers were betting overwhelmingly that Remain would win, but the polls were quite accurate–that it would be very close. The same thing is happening here, now. Bettors are giving Hillary between 75% and 85% chance of winning, whereas the polls only have her a few points ahead.

The final average of polls for Brexit showed only a 48-46 tilt toward Remain, within the margin of error–and the 6% undecided vote may have gone toward Leave.

There was also evidence that the Remain public were over-confident. The voting rate in the Leave areas was higher than in the Remain areas, suggesting that many Remain voters didn’t think they had to bother.

Lots of people voted in the EU referendum that had never voted before. The danger in the US election is that committed voters will abstain from supporting their parties’ candidate. The only question is how many?

If polls a week before the election show that, for example, there’s 70% support for Candidate A and 30% support for Candidate B, that does not mean that Candidate B has a 30% chance of winning. The chance of Candidate B winnibg in this scenario, would be equal to the likelihood that 20% of voters would change their mind over the span of one week. In other words, Candidate B will have nearly 0% chance of winning.

For Trump, he has to flip several states in which he is quite clearly behind, as well as several in which he is slightly behind, and in addition he needs to win a number of virtual coin tosses. The popular vote is not relevant here.

What makes you think that? We were stupid enough to elect Reagan twice and W twice. If we’re stupid enough to elect Trump once, we’re also stupid enough to elect him twice. Never underestimate stupidity.

Furthermore, the GOP strategy to dumb down their base and create an army of angry racists through endless fear-mongering and otherizing of non-whites and non-men has actually worked. There’s no reason to believe it would suddenly stop working with Trump in office.

You are also ignoring the fact that 4 years of Trump can and will harm many people and cause irreversible damage to the country and the world. The Supreme Court could be stacked with regressive sociopaths for a generation. The rights of women, people of color, LGBTQ+ people, hispanics, and workers would be set back by half a century or more. What takes 4 years to destroy could take decades to repair.

Don’t fall into this harmful and ridiculously fallacious logic. Your convoluted plan to make the GOP self-destruct is not only delusional, but it also comes from a very privileged position. I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess you’re a straight, cisgendered, white man. It might seem like a fun game to you, but the vague promise of future change won’t matter one bit to the women who will die in forced childbirth, the children who will be shot due to Republican gun fetishism, the trans people who will be beaten to death by mobs of bigots in Hillary for prison t-shirts, the Muslims and other brown people who will be murdered for daring to not be white Christians, or indeed the country that happens to be the first random target when Trump decides to drop nukes by throwing darts at a world map.

To many of us, this is life or death. It’s not a game. Stop treating it like it’s fantasy football. Vote for the non-psychopath.

You paint a very dark picture, both about the possibility of the likelihood of a second term and the damage that would be done even in one term. Unfortunately I think you are absolutely right. We must deny this monster even a single day in the White house. Donald Trump’s is not Make America Great Agai, it is Make America Hate Again.

Republicans won’t be satisfied until every person of color is dead, deported or enslaved, women are slaves to their husbands again, gays are slaughtered in the streets, democracy is dismantled, all wealth and power concentrated in a fraction of a fraction of the most privileged de facto monarchs, rape is legalized, the sea level rises to submerge our coasts, and the rest of the world is a post-nuclear wasteland.

We simply cannot let these savages and enemies of civilization have any form of power, ever. They only care about death and destruction. There is no moral compass, no empathy, no humanity – only pure filth.

I was thinking a LOT higher that THAT, Goethe.
I was thinking – more along the lines of the crowds he attracts & the various things I’ve seen written, about him.

And speaking of attendance,- & ofcourse -IF- it is true-(as it would SOUND):
While I can understand DT’s high attendance record, I don’t understand HC’s low attendance rating. I would think that just for her position & fame, she would also be flooded.

I’m a cis gendered white male? The only correct part is white, I’m a transwoman and gay. I know how bad it will be especially when his running mate loves conversion therapy. That is why if he wins it is up to us to keep him from doing whatever he pleases as his supporters would. Until we can crush him and his regime during reelection

I would love to participate in discussions on liberal channels and I still do on two. Unfortunately shortly after I joined DISQUS I was banned on NEWS VIEWS and I self exiled myself from two other liberal channels. This was because I dared to have a different opinion than the majority.

I agree with you that if you only interact with those you agree with, some of you are superfluous. But here I am, apparently TOLERANT LIBERALS are rather INTOLERANT!!!

100% of posts I have seen about Clinton are negative, considering she has been under investigation regarding the email scandal for the last 2 years. It has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that she lied under oath to a congressional hearing. For this crime alone she should have been given jail time. This is the sentence given to everyone for this particular crime. Yet she is still in the presidential race. She cannot be allowed to win since this makes a complete mockery of the American judicial system. Trump may not be a particularly pleasant person, but his misdemeanors pale in comparison to Clinton’s actual crimes. People may not want to support Trump, and that is understandable, but why would anyone support Clinton.

Well that’s simple, I don’t support her, I’m voting for her, but I am supporting the platform Bernie help make. And if she is elected Bernie, me and many others will strong arm her into sticking with that platform. Trump goes against my ideals and beliefs, so no shit I won’t vote for him.

All I know is they keep saying how Hillary has Michagan easy, But I don’t know one person in Michagan this is voting for her. Not even all my friends that are in the UAW. They all voted for Obama, and a few even told me to leave their house when I voted for Bush. But now they are all voting for Trump. Lol . Can’t wait until the 9 th too see this.

Why should we be friends with white nationalists? I don’t know any serial killers either, but if one of my friends turned out to be a serial killer I would stay away from him in the future. The same is true for racists and Nazis.

If they are good people, why are they supporting a racist who assaults women and retweets Nazi propaganda? The evidence says they might not be good people. If you think they’re good people, chances are you’re not a good person either. Good people aren’t racists and rapists.

I want to know why Trump and his party hasn’t been hacked? Why has there only been one old video really being used against him? There’s so much material out there, and why haven’t we seen any of all his misbehaving and his horrible treatment of women. He’s been treating women awful since we have first heard of him! Why hasn’t his taxes been released, why because he’s using old loop holes that are illegal, and why doesn’t this matter to people? I just don’t understand how people can be behind a man that has done nothing but treat women as objects and not people?

Whats the point of hacking into his party when the media is always talking trash about him. Hillary has got the media under her thumb. If you remember Bill Bush and Trump are suing because that tape was part of a private conversation. He’s been treating women awful so has Hillary. She made fun of Bill’s accusers, she was calling Mexicans “needy Latinos” in some released tapes, and her campaign was making fun of Catholics. Oh and also for the first Presidential Debate CNN fire Brazile because evidence was found that she gave Hillary the debate questions before hand. She lied under oath, she could protect five men in Benghazi, (yet she thinks she can protect a whole nation)

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