Wx guessing is all based on statistics and what the air decides to do at any given moment. It is convenient for scientists and sailors to think in terms of schedules and the like. Unfortunately, air is compressable. Push on a column of air and get an infinite number of effects. Push on a column of water, and get fairly concrete results. It's easier to think in concrete terms, but that has it price.

There's a bit of a trap in presenting wind as a scheduled occurance. I've been sailing for 25 years and have seen surprise after surprise happen concerning wx. My point is keep expectations low, get ready to hit the rewind button at work, etc. Deadlines and commitments suck.

I need to find a way to have my habit support me. But, then don't we all? I guess all we can do is keep smiling and trying to get on the water more.

The only benefit to a skunked session is that you learn a little bit more about the reliability of a forecast wind direction and strength at your local sailing spot for a particular time of year. I've found that southerly wind forecasts for the fall and winter along the east coast (NJ) can be very unreliable for sailing (i.e., the wind comes up for only a short period or is far lighter than forecast). Where as northwesterly's associated with a cold front passage are more reliable this time of year. From what I've noticed, southerlies always are a bit more reliable in the spring, summer and early fall months when it's partly sunny and you get a sea breeze or thermal component to help out. Anyway don't get too frustrated, we've all been skunked may times or simply missed great days due to seemingly lousy forecasting. Best bet is to always try and keep your options open regarding work schedule. If the wind seems sketchy when you wake up, go into work for possibly a half day and watch the wind meters. I'll often throw several sails, a mast and one board in the car for an emergency mid day escape from work in the event the wind does come up. Even if I only get one hour of sailing in, it still is worth it despite all the driving.

i agree with all that has been said. Just a very frustating day - was supposed to be "warm and windy". Thought I would have one last great day before the cold moves in. Not only did I not get it, but the forecast was a day off - today was everything they forecasted for yesterday.

Today did look pretty juicy... I was kept away from the fluid due to knee surgery recovery. There are so many factors that can come in to play to keep you away from the spot on the day, it is a very taxing aspect of this sport, one for which not everyone has the stomach. I've often wondered though if it would be as sweet if it were always there. Guess I'll find out when I move to Maui.... Until then, I will cherish those warm and windy November days when I have no other commitments, and my health is in order...

Quite a few of my friends that moved to Maui rarely sail anymore. Too much of a good thing, I guess. We non-paradise sailors get intermitant rewards for sailing. They get constant ones. After a while, any sport, done often enough, reflects back on what's going on inside...

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