In both academic and conversational circles, more people are beginning to discuss 2018 as the end of the freewheeling days of residential real estate – with its high prices and fast sales, site unseen. Such a portrayal of the last several years of the housing market are sensationalistic at best, patently false at worst. It is true that median sales prices have risen and total days on market have lessened. This prevailing market trend has occurred gradually, and so shall the next trend.

It has been another busy summer for residential real estate. The lower supply, higher prices, faster sales mantra has remained in place for most of the nation for the entirety of the year – which heightened in intensity during the summer sales season – but there has been some conversation about the possibility of more supply and lower prices. Presently, it is just conversation, as the numbers are not reflective of a shift in trend lines anytime soon.

The U.S. housing market is becoming a tale of regions. Consumers in high-priced markets in the West are pushing back with fewer showings and sales. The Midwest is marked mostly by stability of new listings and sales with gently improving inventory. Many Northeast markets have routinely struggled to keep pace with the overall U.S. economic recovery. And the South is enjoying more showings and sales than the rest of the nation. Here’s what’s happening in the local market.

Competitive buyers vying for a somewhat limited number of homes for sale have helped prices continue to climb, frequently over the asking price. The latest recorded national unemployment rate of 3.9 percent is historically low and has served as a general indicator of a strong economy. To give a better idea of how good the unemployment situation is right now, we were looking at a historically low rate of 4.3 percent last year at this time.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 157,000 jobs in July, marking 93 months in a row of job additions. Beginning in October 2010, that is the longest streak of monthly employment growth on record. The unemployment rate dropped to a historically low 3.9 percent, and wage growth remained at an annual rate of 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, escalating tariff conflicts with U.S. trade partners have not yet impacted the day-to-day housing market, but builders have indicated that lumber tariffs are increasing prices for new homes.

Although talk of another real estate pricing bubble poised to burst is premature, pundits are nevertheless beginning to point toward the common markers that caused the last housing market downturn. As prices continue to rise while wages don’t rise as quickly, a new situation could be an eventuality. Yet today’s market is quite different than the last recession. The economy is growing, lending practices are more in line with economic fundamentals and inventory appears to be improving in many markets, which would help alleviate price pressure.

National indicators do not necessarily predict the local economy, but the national trends can be a reliable gauge for what is happening with local residential real estate. Case in point, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that unemployment is relatively unchanged since last month. Meanwhile, a national statistics release about housing starts indicates that housing starts are lower nationwide, even as consumer spending on home goods purchases and renovations are up.

As prices persistently rise and months of supply decrease in year-over-year comparisons, it continues to be an ideal time for more sellers to enter the market. Across the U.S., inventory levels are still lagging behind last year, but new listings have perked up nicely so far this year. This has been coupled with many announced new home-building projects across the nation and a more positive tone from the building community.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent in June 2018, marking the first increase in nearly a year. Economic forecasters are calling this a healthy increase indicative of more people being counted as entering the work force in an exceptional job market that added more than 213,000 paying jobs in June. Strong demand for workers combined with low supply creates upward pressure on wages. Employed people with higher wages are generally good for residential real estate.

The first half of the year in residential real estate fared as expected, with the most obvious markers continuing to be low inventory and higher prices. We are also seeing decreased affordability in many markets coupled with more urgency (lower days on market) and increased purchase offers (higher pending sales) ahead of perceived future rate increases that have not yet materialized in the wake of the 0.25 percent increase in the federal funds rate. All of this makes for a busy summer. Let’s examine the local market.