Saturday, October 12, 2013

Another fine mess

Deadlines have now been set by the Europeans for Tymoshenko's release, which have to met by Ukraine if the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements are to be successfully clinched.

However, it becoming clear that president Yanukovych will not pardon Yulia Tymoshenko under any circumstances; it would be too much of a climb-down for him to bear. Some other mechanism for her release to Germany needs to be found.

Yanukovych is pressing the Ukrainian parliament to pass a law enabling prisoners, like YVT, to obtain treatment abroad. But is this realistic? [I foresee weekly convoys of ambulances shuttling well-heeled Ukrainian prisoners to Germany and Austria for 'treatment abroad'...]

If Tymoshenko does land up in Germany by means of some other political contortion, the following scenario is quite possible:

The European Court of Human Rights rules Tymoshenko's human rights were abused at her gas trial two years ago, and the verdict declared unsafe, i.e. the trial was fixed....

Armed with the ECHR ruling, showing no fear, she returns back to Ukraine to get the gas case verdict annulled and so clear her name, as she has vowed to do.

If the two further criminal cases involving fraud at UESU, and conspiracy to murder the Shcherban's proceed, she calls Yanukovych's bluff and faces these charges. Because Ukraine, by this time will have signed an Association Agreement, these trials have to be seen to be scrupulously conducted in the full glare of the world's press. Her defence will certainly use every opportunity to discredit Yanukovych and the prosecutors. Any Shcherban trial would be an opportunity to bring up lots of dirt on the 'Donetski'..And if these trials are improperly conducted she will, in any case, challenge any verdict back in the UCHR..

All this would be going on during the 2015 presidential election campaign..So not a happy scenario for Yanukovych to face, particularly bearing in mind his current low ratings in opinion polls.

It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that Yanukovych may be considering hanging onto Tymoshenko and just hoping the Europeans are bluffing when they say "no Tymoshenko - no AA"...And if it falls through...well, 'It will be all the fault of Tymoshenko, the opposition and the Germans'.

p.p.s. In a TVi.ua straw poll the website's readers were asked: 'When will Yanukovych free Tymoshenko?

Just over one half said 'never'.
About one quarter said October 14, on the feast of 'Pokrova'..

Note: Pokrova, Protecting Veil of the Virgin Mary, is celebrated on October 14; it is the Feast of the Patronage (Protection or Intercession) of the Most Holy Mother of God.The Virgin Mary has always been regarded in Ukraine as a protectress, a mediator between man and God, and people turned to Her with their prayers, thanking Her for intercession or seeking her help.Even at the time when soviet atheism was at its most virulent and any form of public manifestation of religious feeling was either suppressed or restricted, the feasts dedicated to the Virgin Mary were clandestinely celebrated, particularly in the countryside. A special, festive meal was a natural part of the celebrations.