Fukuda's Resignation Reflects Japan's Political Gridlock

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Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's abrupt resignation has
again thrown Japan's political landscape into uncertainty. His
departure, coming less than a year after assuming office-as was the
case with his predecessor-increases the potential that Japan will
return to the revolving door of ineffectual prime ministers serving
brief terms that prevailed through much of the 1990s.

The good news is that Japan is not in crisis and the political
system will remain stable as the ruling party makes preparations to
select a new leader.[1] The change in leadership will even create
some initial excitement and anticipation of change. But the next
prime minister faces the same challenges that undid his two
predecessors and may fare no better. Japan's new leader will be
constrained in implementing foreign and domestic policies by a
legislature split between competing parties and the obstructionist
tactics of the opposition party.

Long-term Japanese policy stagnation is not in the U.S.'s
strategic interest. Bold leadership is needed but unlikely in
Japan's consensus-driven political system. There are serious
consequences to Japanese inaction. Tokyo's unwillingness or
inability to make tough decisions risks Japan losing influence and
perhaps even relevance in a region increasingly dominated by an
ascendant China. As a Chinese proverb cautions, "Two tigers cannot
share the same mountain."

Fukuda Throws in the Towel

Japan appears doomed to endure a political version of the movie
Groundhog Day in which it must live the same day over and
over until finally rectifying its problems. Fukuda's surprise
resignation mirrored that of Shinzo Abe in September 2007, even
repeating Abe's unsuccessful attempt to regain public support by
reshuffling his cabinet. Upon assuming office 11 months ago, Fukuda
quipped that he had simply "drawn the short straw," thereby
indicating his realization of the difficulties he faced. An
experienced though uninspiring leader, Fukuda failed to reverse
plummeting public support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP).

Fukuda's consummate tendency for compromise failed to win over
the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which was
energized by its gaining control of the upper house of the
legislature in July 2007 elections. DPJ chief Ichiro Ozawa was
combatively obstructionist, attempting to force an early election
of the more powerful lower house. Ozawa will see Fukuda's
resignation as vindication of his strategy and will continue
efforts to bring down the government, regardless of the impact on
Japan's economy or foreign policy.

Aso Has Inside Track as Successor

Former Foreign Minister Taro Aso is the current presumptive
selection as the next prime minister, though this was also the case
a year ago before being surpassed by Fukuda. He is known for
conservative foreign policy views, including strong support of
Japan's security alliance with the U.S. Aso would be more willing
than Fukuda to expand Japan's regional security role and augment
involvement in overseas peacekeeping operations. To accomplish
this, he would support reinterpreting the collective self-defense
theory, which currently constrains the role of Japanese
Self-Defense Forces. Fukuda had dismissed an Abe-convened task
force that would have recommended loosening restrictions on Japan's
defense forces.

Aso is also skeptical of Beijing's long-term intentions toward
the region and he would support using Japan as a balance to China.
He shares Abe's strong views on the need for North Korea to resolve
its past abduction of Japanese citizens prior to Tokyo providing
benefits in the six-party talks or normalizing diplomatic relations
with Pyongyang. He would be critical of any attempt by the Bush
Administration to lower the requirements for adequately verifying
North Korean denuclearization.

Economists, however, are wary of Aso's potential selection,
seeing it as a possible setback for necessary economic reforms. Aso
supported Tokyo's $106 billion economic stimulus package of August
29 to revitalize the slumping economy. The emergency measures are
likely to be ineffective in addressing underlying structural
deficiencies, but they are popular with voters who fear growing
indications of a Japanese recession. As such, Aso might support
additional pump-priming measures despite the immense government
debt, which equals 170 percent of Japan's GDP.

Aso's main rival, former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike, opposed
the stimulus package and remains a supporter of Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi's reforms to create economic growth. Koike, who
would be Japan's first female prime minister, is seen as a long
shot to succeed Fukuda. Although a member of the powerful Machimura
faction of the LDP, media reports indicate the faction may not
officially endorse her as a candidate.[2]

2009 Election Looms Large

If selected as prime minister, Aso would be hesitant to
implement dramatic changes in Japan's foreign policy, particularly
an expansion of the defense force's role. Abe's pursuit of such a
bold security vision was rejected by the electorate more concerned
with Japan's mounting economic troubles. In the run-up to a
September 2009 lower house election, the leadership must play to
constituent issues so as to avoid losing political control.

Aso would be more receptive to Washington's entreaties for Japan
to fulfill its previous commitments to assist the ongoing
relocation of U.S. military forces. U.S. officials have expressed
increasing frustration with Japanese foot-dragging during Fukuda's
administration. That said, Aso would be wary of alienating the
electorate by appearing overly acquiescent to U.S. "demands."
Similarly, U.S. efforts to transform the security alliance into a
broader regional and global partnership will continue to face
resistance from a public content with the comfortable status
quo.

Advocating a Stronger Security
Relationship

Bilateral U.S.-Japanese security ties have expanded greatly
during the past 10 years, resulting in more closely integrated
military operations. Japan has been moving inexorably toward
military reform during the past decade, albeit at a glacial pace
and only in response to repeated prodding by the United States.

Washington should work with the next Japanese leader to
emphasize the need for Japan to take greater responsibility for its
own defense and regional security commensurate with its economic
power and global interests. The U.S. should encourage Japan to do
the following:

Remove constraints on Japanese defense capabilities, including
restrictions on overseas deployments.

Although the U.S. and Japan have established guidelines for
transforming the alliance, successful implementation will require
sustained and energetic involvement by the senior leadership of
both countries. Both nations should also increase public diplomacy
efforts to convince their respective citizenry of the need for
Japanese involvement in peacekeeping, regional stability,
anti-piracy, and protecting sea lines of communications
operations.

Bruce Klingner is Senior
Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at
The Heritage Foundation.

[1]
Under Japan's parliamentary system of government, the political
party controlling the lower house of the legislature selects the
prime minister from its ranks.