UFC 163 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Aldo vs. Jung

Does
“The Korean Zombie” have what it takes to spring the upset? | Josh
Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

And then there was one. In a sport that has long been heavily
represented by Brazilians, their once seemingly invincible
champions continue to fall. Brazil’s hold on the heavyweight, light
heavyweight and middleweight straps have all been broken. Now
Jose
Aldo is the last of the undisputed -- Renan Barao
remains an interim champion --
Ultimate Fighting Championship titleholders from Brazil.

Aldo will defend his featherweight crown against Chan Sung
Jung in the
UFC 163 main event on Saturday at the HSBC Arena in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil, as for the first time in UFC history, a Korean
will challenge for promotional gold. Let us look at how Aldo and
“The Korean Zombie” match up on paper.

The Tale of Tape shows a negligible size advantage for Jung. He is
sometimes listed as tall as 5-foot-9, but according to FightMetric
and official UFC records, he is the same height as the champion.
Either way, Jung will have a slight reach advantage. The only times
Aldo has faced a larger opponent with a reach advantage was against
Frankie
Edgar and Kenny
Florian. Aldo lost at least one round in those fights. If the
fight stays standing, which is where Aldo has kept it for 83
percent of his cage time, this may become a factor. Otherwise, the
two fighters are the same age and will use the same stance.

One difference worth noting is that Jung has not fought in more
than a year, which is above the threshold for ring rust. He will
need to be in great shape if he is going to challenge the champion
for five rounds, so the nature of Jung’s layoff and training camp
will be important.

With that, let us move on to their performance metrics, starting
with striking.

While at a glance the two fighters seem fairly evenly matched in
terms of their offensive metrics, this is a matchup where the
context of prior opponents plays an important role in evaluation.
While Jung has showed above average striking accuracy, two of his
five fights in
World Extreme Cagefighting and the UFC came against Leonard
Garcia, who has been all too willing to stand and trade -- and
to eat a lot of leather while doing so. If anything, Jung’s stats
are likely a little inflated due to this fact. However, his
accuracy may also reflect the precision striking that comes with
being a tae kwon do black belt. That accuracy knocked out former
contender Mark
Hominick in just seven seconds, with only two standing strikes
attempted. Regardless of whether or not Jung is truly comparable in
to skill to Aldo, he remains dangerous.

Conversely, Aldo has a series of five-round fights against elite
and elusive competition. Despite the consistently high level of
opponents, Aldo has still performed very well statistically. His
striking accuracy is above average, and he has scored an impressive
seven knockdowns in his Zuffa career. Even more impressive is his
defense, which is also where he differentiates most from his
opponent in this matchup.

Aldo has proven difficult to hit, making his opponents miss their
power head strike attempts nine times out of 10. Jung on the other
hand is barely better than average in power striking defense and
woefully below average against jabs. Both fighters have been good
on defense in the clinch, but neither spends more than 10 percent
of his cage minutes in that position. For context, that kind of
elusiveness is on par with Lyoto
Machida. While Jung may fare well standing in the pocket
against most fighters, he might sustain more damage than he can
deliver trying to do so against Aldo. In that case, the style of
brawling that gave him “The Korean Zombie” nickname may work
against him in Brazil.

Despite the small range disadvantage, Aldo should be the one
landing more frequent and harder strikes. He is also twice as
likely to use leg kicks, which he famously utilized to horrific
effect against Urijah Faber
at WEC 48. The five-round nature of this fight makes leg kicks an
even greater weapon, thanks to added time for bruising and swelling
to kick in. Although Jung has been in some barnburners before, he
has not faced the knockdown power of a striker like Aldo. Cardio
has cost Aldo some late rounds one the cards before, but his
well-rounded attack and excellent defense make for a tough matchup
for any featherweight.

What happens when these guys go to the ground?

To date, Jung’s performance on the ground has been dominant. Though
he has only attempted six takedowns, he missed on just one. Once on
the ground, he has been in control most of the time, using both
strikes and submissions at will. Aldo has not spent much time on
the ground, but his performance metrics are still above average,
although they are not as high as Jung’s.

Qualitatively, Aldo has the better grappling credentials, thanks to
a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and more experienced training
camps. However, Jung has used submissions more effectively and more
spectacularly of late. Two of Jung’s UFC appearances earned
“Submission of the Night” honors: the twister submission on Garcia
and his brabo choke finish of Dustin
Poirier.

The real question will be whether either fighter can get this to
the mat and take control. Both me have proven to be very difficult
to take down, and neither has ever faced any submission attempts.
With such good grappling defense and the low rate of offensive
takedown attempts that they have shown, we might see these two
choose to keep it standing.

The Final Word

The current betting line favors the champion Aldo at -700, with the
comeback for the challenger Jung at +500. That means the market is
giving Aldo an 88 percent chance of keeping his belt at UFC 163.
With a lower likelihood of a one-punch knockout than exists in
heavier divisions, chances are good that Aldo and Jung will stand
and trade for at least a few rounds. Jung will have to be at his
absolute best on offense and significantly improve his defense to
steal early rounds, while his fitness will need to be up to par to
win any championship rounds. Interestingly, it was partially Jung’s
cardio that helped him finish Poirier in the fourth round of his
last fight, while Aldo has dropped the final frame in several of
his bouts that went to a decision. Could the gas tank be the
difference or will it all be rendered moot thanks to the glaring
home-field advantage Brazilian fighters have enjoyed in recent
events hosted in Brazil.

What do you think? Is there any specific factor for Aldo that will
ensure he keeps the local fans happy with another successful title
defense? Is there any metric you think gives the scrappy “Zombie” a
shot at giving Korea its first-ever UFC title in a huge upset?

Later in August, we will look at UFC
164, where we have the rare scenario of Benson
Henderson defending his title against an opponent who already
beat him once. That should be interesting.

Note: Raw data for the analysis was provided by, and in
partnership with FightMetric. All analysis was
performed by Reed Kuhn. Reed Kuhn, Fightnomics, FightMetric and
Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights,
financial or otherwise.

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