Congressmen play game of chicken

Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne may well have had the best chance of ousting U.S. Sen, Mary Landrieu next year, according to polling. But, as those who know him already figured, he would rather run for governor in 2015 than go to Washington, and so last month, he took himself out of consideration for the Senate race.

With that cleared up, the burning question for Republicans remains: Who will step up to the Landrieu challenge? Better question: Who will stand down?

Republican congressmen Bill Cassidy of Baton Rouge and John Fleming of Minden, both medical doctors, are showing keen interest in running for the Senate, but neither has declared.

It is an article of faith among Republicans that Landrieu is vulnerable, given the expected lower African-American turnout in the mid-term election and a potentially hostile national political environment for the moderate Democrat. They also agree that one strong GOP candidate is better than two, but that's as far as the agreement goes.

Instead, what the GOP has going on right now is the chicken primary. The two congressmen are going through all the motions of lining up Senate campaigns without yet forsaking re-election to their safe House seats.

Cassidy pressed hard to add $500,000 to his campaign war chest, now approaching $3 million, by last week's end-of-quarter reporting deadline. Big Republican donors, in Washington and Louisiana, are watching closely to see how well he does, for they know Landrieu and the national Democrats won't be short on cash.

Fleming is under less pressure to show big fundraising totals right now, partly because of his own deep pockets and partly because it won't cost him as much to get the Republican right wing to know he's one of them. Instead, he is concentrating on building up his ideological base among social conservatives. He recently filed his "Health Care Conscience Rights Act," which would allow businesses to opt out of parts of the Affordable Care Act for religious reasons, such as objecting to coverage for certain forms of contraception.

Cassidy has blasted the contraception mandate as well, siding with the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.

Fleming is aggressively making a very public case for himself as the real-deal conservative. He paid for a recent poll that showed both him and Cassidy at around 15 percent, behind Landrieu at 47 percent. But the pollster stated that Fleming fared better among Republicans and "very conservative white voters."

Going further, when poll respondents were told that Fleming receives higher scores for his voting record from conservative groups than does Cassidy, Fleming's margin widened. His consultant concluded that if both run against Landrieu, the more conservative Republican is better positioned to make the runoff.

Cassidy, of course, could pay for a poll that describes both candidates in such a way that would favor himself. A year and a half before the election, poll numbers mean little, but what's telling is that Fleming is getting in Cassidy's face, all but daring him to meet in a primary showdown.

Cassidy's team dismisses the Fleming poll as political bravura. Without making a show of it, Cassidy has been moving around the state to meet with local Republican activists who could form his grass-roots network. His early target area is the parishes on both sides of Lake Pontchartrain that form the 1st Congressional District. In 2008, Landrieu ran surprisingly well in this traditional GOP stronghold on her way to beating Treasurer John Kennedy. Cassidy is making the case that he is the guy who can stop Landrieu at the Orleans Parish line.

In 2008, the two physicians were in their 50s when they went to Washington, after pursuing completely different non-traditional careers in medicine. Cassidy has been a teaching professor at LSU Hospitals, where primarily he has cared for indigent patients. Fleming defies the stereotype of doctors making lousy businessmen with his dozens of Subway restaurants and UPS stores in North Louisiana.

Both have accomplished more in their earlier careers than they would likely achieve by staying in the House for another decade, and so are poised for up-or-out electoral moves. Yet, if either or both runs for the Senate and loses, how much would they miss the political action of Washington, even from the lower chamber?

Clearly, each wants the other to blink and sacrifice ambition for party unity. Yet many Republicans fear it is not going to work out that way, again, and the two GOP congressmen could settle their game of chicken by colliding in the primary. It's worked for Landrieu before.

- John Maginnis is an independent journalist who writes about Louisiana politics.

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

ADVERTISEMENT

Email this article

Congressmen play game of chicken

Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne may well have had the best chance of ousting U.S. Sen, Mary Landrieu next year, according to polling. But, as those who know him already figured, he would rather run for