]]>With all due respect to DeMar DeRozan and the fantastic All-Star season that he posted last year, but it was Kyle Lowry that propelled the Raptors to arguably their best season in team history. Lowry handily led the team in win shares, offering an estimated 11.7 wins for the club last season (over DeRozan’s 8.8 according to basketballreference.com), which was good for 8th in the NBA, and his leadership gave the team its identity, its never-say-die attitude. Last year’s was one of the most balanced rosters that the organization has ever fielded, but it achieved what it did last year because Kyle Lowry pushed them there night after night.

He posted career-high’s in nearly every measurable category: points per game (17.9), assists per game (7.4), rebounds per game (4.7), free throw makes and attempts per game (4.0 and 4.9), PER (20.1), True Shooting Percentage (.567), three-point percentage (.380), turnover percentage (13.4, his lowest ever), etc etc etc — the team needed Lowry to step up his game and he did it by giving the team the best version of himself that he’s ever offered. This was the version of Kyle Lowry that the Raptors had envisioned when the brought him in to run the show in 2012, and it’s the version of Lowry that they needed to lock-up in the summer of 2014.

To that end, the Raptors acted swiftly in free agency to secure Lowry with a four-year deal. At $48-million, Lowry is now Toronto’s highest-paid player, but since his deal is still well short of the max, he leaves the Raptors with plenty of breathing space in the coming years to extend new deals to fellow starters Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas.

So with the band back together the expectation is that the Raptors are ready to soar even high than they did with Lowry last season. In fact, if there is any fear about Lowry going forward its only that he might not be able to replicate his breakout ’13-’14 campaign. This isn’t for fear that his weight may balloon again or that he’ll renew his clashes with Dwane Casey, it’s simply because Lowry offered the Raptors a season that seemed to max out his talent in every measurable metric and that kind of output is hard to bank on year after year.

The fact of the matter is, if Toronto’s plan had been to simply ride Lowry to that degree every single season going forward they’d be in trouble, but fortunately for Raptors fans that isn’t what the plan for the future is. The club spent lavishly to bring back Lowry’s primary backup, the quasi-starting-calibre Greivis Vasquez, and traded John Salmons to acquire scoring guard Lou Williams. Both of those guys will be tasked with providing some statistical assistance around the fringes should Lowry’s numbers take a small step back this season — reason would expect them to do so — while also helping to back-off of the career-high 36.2 minutes per game that Lowry logged last season (a concern, though not a grave one, given Lowry’s notable injury history).

The Raptors will also apply more pressure to Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, expecting them to shoulder more responsibilities, so that the club isn’t as dependent on Lowry (and DeRozan) having dominant games in order to win, especially against the league’s cellar-dwellers.

That said, Lowry will continue to act as the engine that makes this car go. Even if his minutes are trimmed ever-so-slightly and even if his usage rate dips a tad going forward, this team is really only going as far as Lowry can take them. DeRozan may be the All-Star, the World Cup gold medallist, but even he needs Lowry to be at his best to improve upon what the team accomplished a season ago. All of those fourth-quarter comebacks last season? That was Lowry’s personality personified throughout the roster. There is a reason that he was the one entrusted to take the last shot of their season last year, and even though he flubbed it, you can bet that Casey would put the ball right back in his hands if the Raptors find themselves in that same position next April.

That’s why the organization was so insistent upon re-signing Lowry this summer. It’s why Tim Leiweke was willing to go on television three months before free agency and insist that the team was going to bring him back. Lowry is this iteration of the Raptors. The club may be devoid of any transcendent, super-duper-stars in its current form, but in Lowry they have a player that the organization is willing to model the entire club after. Even if the Raptors had lost Lowry and somehow managed to replace him with a similarly skilled player, let’s say Ty Lawson, the structure of the team would be completely different. The personality would be totally turned on its head. The continuity in the rest of the roster wouldn’t matter nearly as much because the head of the beast had be torn off and that would mean starting well behind where the club had finished a season ago.

Lowry may not be as dynamic as Vince Carter or as consistent as Chris Bosh, but he is no less important to this version of the Raptors than they were to their’s. If the team is going to achieve new heights this season, it’s going to be because Lowry pushed them there. He has a wonderfully intriguing and talented support system around him to help make it happen, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t all still start with him. This team goes where Lowry is going to take them, and it should be pretty exciting to see how high that can be.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/10/01/player-preview-kyle-lowry/feed/25Raptors Second Round Pick DeAndre Daniels to Play in Australiahttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/08/09/raptors-second-round-pick-deandre-daniels-play-australia/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/08/09/raptors-second-round-pick-deandre-daniels-play-australia/#commentsSat, 09 Aug 2014 18:07:34 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=46541DeAndre Daniels to play for the Perth Wildcats next season.

]]>According to a report in the Herald Sun (Australian site), Raptors second rounder DeAndre Daniels will be joining the Perth Wildcats. The report states:

Almost a year to the day after signing James Ennis, who has returned to the US to play with the Miami Heat, the Wildcats have pulled off a similar coup by landing Daniels.

“I’m going to Australia for four months, a long vacation, and I’m going back and will be with the Raptors,” Daniels was quoted as saying.

“I’m just going to go out there and not look at it as a negative, but look at it as a positive.

“I’m just going to go out there and get better.”

The 6’8″ Junior from UConn had a decent showing in the Vegas summer league (recent interview here). Daniels 10 points, 6.2 rebounds, and .4 steals while shooting 36% from the floor in the Vegas summer league. He also shot 26% from three, while taking 23 threes in the five games.

According to that guy, Buycks has been released which, to be fair, is a pretty obvious course of action to take. With the Raptors already fielding Lowry, Vasquez, and Lou Williams at the point, Buycks has become dispensable. Any chance that the guy might have had of making the team probably went down the drain when he approached summer league as a shoot-first tournament instead of trying to quarterback the team. There was some hope of him making the team after Nando De Colo left for CSKA Moscow, but clearly it wasn’t enough.

Given that Williams isn’t a true point guard, it puts a little bit of pressure on Casey to make sure that Vasquez is indeed backing up Lowry instead of playing with him in a two-guard lineup. Perhaps DeAndre Daniels has shown enough to warrant Bucyks’ spot? We’ll see.

He was due $1.15 million if not released which now comes off the cap. Chances are Daniels can be had for the minimum if the Raptors choose to go that route.

Buycks averaged 3.1 points and 0.7 assists in 14 games last season while playing 10.4 minutes. RR wishes Dwight Buycks the best of luck in his future endeavors, as he was more or less benign.

Anthony Morrow, eh? I have a friend who insists he has the most fundamentally sound shot-release in the NBA. We often debate this and I counter with Jamario Moon, mostly because I want to piss him off. Given the earlier report of the Raptors signing James Johnson, it’s hard to see where Morrow would get minutes. I asked RR resident salary cap expert and owner of the most gorgeous beard ever, Blake Murphy, what the Raptors could pay him and he said:

@raptorsrepublic@ekoreen $2.8M remaining on MLE, but that would push them into tax and activate apron. $2M seems "realistic" max.

Last year Morrow made $1.03M with the Pelicans, so the Raptors could conceivably afford him. Glancing briefly at the shooting guard depth-chart we have DeMar DeRozan, and then Lou Williams. Hey, what? We only have two shooting guards and one of them really isn’t a shooting guard? Well, looks like we’ve found a slot for Morrow. He also happens to be a ridiculous three-point shooter, shooting a whopping 43% for his career and is coming off a season where shot 45%. That’s right, 45%. That’s like, more than what half the team shoots from two-point range.

So, before we dismiss this rumour as guff, I say this actually might make some sense on a cerebral level, especially if we, by some miracle of God, manage to off-load Landry Fields’ contract (I kid, he’s a nice guy). The Raptors also happen to have a bit of a hole at the backup C where we’re one Valanciunas injury from seeing Chuck Hayes haunt our nightmares on a regular basis, so this observer might suggest that that is more of a concern, as sexy as Morrow’s release may be.

]]>The Raptors have extended qualifying offers to Patrick Patterson ($4.3M), Greivis Vasquez ($3.2M) and Nando De Colo ($1.8M), thus making them restricted free agents. The qualifying offers give the Raptors the right to match any offer made to them (right of first refusal). From the CBA FAQ:

The qualifying offer is a standing offer for a one-year guaranteed contract, which becomes a regular contact if the player decides to sign it. This ensures that the team does not gain the right of first refusal without offering a contract themselves. The amount of the qualifying offer for players on rookie “scale” contracts is based on the player’s draft position. The qualifying offer for all other players must be for 125% of the player’s previous salary, or the player’s minimum salary.

It’s very unlikely Patterson or Vasquez will accept the offer and take a one-year deal at that rate, given the seasons they’ve had. Nando De Colo, though, might just bite at the opportunity to stay on an NBA roster for another year.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/06/28/raptors-extend-qualifying-offers-patrick-patterson-greivis-vasquez-nando-de-colo/feed/20Brace Yourself, Kyle Lowry Could Leavehttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/06/18/brace-kyle-lowry-leave/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/06/18/brace-kyle-lowry-leave/#commentsWed, 18 Jun 2014 12:45:03 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=45304Kyle Lowry could be headed out of town, what does that mean for the Raptors?

]]>So Kyle Lowry could be headed to the Heat. I personally don’t buy it just because of the amount of contract restructuring that would need to happen in Miami for the big three to get their money, Lowry to get his, and the Heat having enough left over to sign something better than Rashard Lewis. However, stranger things have happened and the Raptors are one of those teams that has a habit of losing good players without netting anything in return.

A Kyle Lowry exit is a horrifying prospect because any version of a near-term outlook for a fan involves Lowry, the unquestionable leader of last season, being front-and-center. Take him out of the equation without getting a return and things get to the point where you’d seriously question what the point of having a good season was, other than reminding everyone that there is a basketball team in town. Such an exit would also be quite a disaster for Masai Ujiri, whose asset-collection measures would suffer a reverse worse than Bryan Colangelo losing Chris Bosh for a TPE his own pick being returned. The psychological impact on the team, and the message it would send to budding players like DeMar DeRozan would also have to be sorted out. From an image portrayal perspective, it would be the exact opposite of what Tim Leiweke is trying to project Toronto as, given his signings with the Leafs and TFC.

Of course, it’s understandable why the Heat are an attractive proposition for Lowry, who would get a legitimate shot at a title with the 4-time NBA finalists, something veterans like Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Rashard Lewis have already done. The difference with Lowry would be that he’s only 28 and hasn’t yet taken a shot at a title on his own, fell short, and then went seeking the peripheral role on an already-stacked side. He would, you could argue, be part of the new “big three” with Chris Bosh or Dwayne Wade seeing the door, instead of a role player. In any scenario, it’s bad news for the Raptors who would not only be left with a emotional and leadership void, but also would be a point-guard short.

I have to imagine that something as significant as this has to be known and sorted out well before the draft because it changes the approach towards draft night entirely. It takes the Raptors from a team seeking specific, small improvements to one that is trying to find a starting point guard, and the worst part is that it would be in plain sight of everyone, reducing Ujiri’s bargaining position. There is the chance that the Raptors might get something in a sign-and-trade deal (the two franchises have dealt in the past multiple times), something resembling Norris Cole which is asymptotic. Note that Miami literally has nothing to give back in a S&T.

To be clear, this wouldn’t be as terrible as hitting a reset button and going to back to rebuilding (after the best draft in years), it would simply mean that the pressure on the existing core to improve and produce would be significant. Do remember that when the Raptors lost Tracy McGrady to Orlando, they followed it up with an even more successful season and Raptors fans would have to hope that history would repeat itself (and also hope that DeMar DeRozan comes close to what Vince Carter was in his heyday, a rather long shot). It would change the priorities in the draft as well, lending credence to the Tyler Ennis-talk, or even Elfrid Payton, who Draft Express has already updated as the Raptors selecting.

Another view you could take is that Kyle Lowry served his purpose in Toronto. He rejuvenated Toronto basketball for one season in his contract year, got the fans back, and it’s now time for the Raptors to take it from there. Don’t let the sour grapes drenched all over this view diminish its possibility. Lowry, who is prone to weight issues, did only have one great year where he took many a defense by surprise. You could easily argue that his performances aren’t repeatable against an expectant rather than surprised defense, so it’s best the Raptors part ways (though losing him for nothing still stings). To console yourself you could also see it as the contention windows of DeRozan, Ross and Valanciunas (24, 23, and 22) being rather different than that of Lowry (28), though it’s quite realistic to think the four being partners for the next two years as Lowry turns 30. Oh well.

Naturally, I’m going to back to thinking what Lowry would have fetched at his peak last season, and the best estimate I can make is what the Knicks were offering. If the Raptors had flipped him for Imam Shumpert and a Knicks’ future pick (Knicks don’t have a pick this year and Tim Hardway Jr. was never quite on the table), it would mean the Raptors roster wouldn’t look drastically different if Lowry does end up leaving. They’d be, more or less, in the same position they are now only with Shumpert on the roster. I’m not sure how much better of a position that is.

I have my hopes that he stays, repeats his performances and on the strength of an improving core, the Raptors take a leap forward. It is a distinct possibility that Lowry goes to the Heat (again, very difficult due to contract restructuring), Lakers or any other big market team in hopes of chasing a title. What’s working in favor of the Raptors is that unlike guys like Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, or Paul Pierce, who could be signed for cheap on account of their ring-chasing priority, Kyle Lowry would be looking for a big contract first, and a title-chase second, if for no other reason than that he’s got more time than them. That puts the Raptors in a pole position, making this in my opinion, a question of whether Masai Ujiri wants to pay the rate based on a contract year, thus trumping the advances of sides that consider themselves title-chasers.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/06/18/brace-kyle-lowry-leave/feed/118With Summer Looming For The Raptors, 2014 Has Echoes Of 2001http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/04/29/summer-looming-raptors-2014-echoes-2001/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/04/29/summer-looming-raptors-2014-echoes-2001/#commentsTue, 29 Apr 2014 15:00:13 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=44389Does the team have to pull out all the stops this summer to maintain their core?

]]>I remember 2001 like it was yesterday. I was working at TSN back then (behind-the-scenes in television rather than for their nascent website) and as the Raptors stellar Playoff run wore down there was as great a sense of panic as there was of jubilation about the summer that lay ahead.

On the plus side you had a team that had just completed their greatest-ever regular season with 47-wins and was embroiled in a tense back-and-forth Conference Semi-Finals series with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Raptors were headlined by one of the biggest stars in the NBA in Vince Carter and looked like an emerging Eastern Conference power based on their 2000-01 results.

There were rifts, however. The Raptors (and their fans) were still very much haunted by Tracy McGrady’s abandonment the summer before, when he spurned Toronto’s free agency overtures and signed a six-year, $67.5-million deal with the Orlando Magic. In 2001 Carter was eligible for a contract extension but no one was sure if he’d be willing to sign on for an elongated tour of duty in Toronto after his cousin’s recent departure. Plus, the team’s success had made Toronto’s bevy of free agents (headlined by Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams and Jerome Williams) attractive to opposing teams and many thought the roster was about to be decimated despite the team’s season-long success.

In the end, of course, Carter opted to stay, and general manager Glen Grunwald offered lucrative (some would argue recklessly so) new deals to Davis and the Williamses to avoid losing them and having to reconstruct the team’s rotation. Those new deals, however, handcuffed the Raptors financially, prevented them from having the flexibility needed to pivot when the roster proved vulnerable and ultimately led to enough fruitless years that Carter would demand a trade after playing out only two years of his six-year extension.

Hindsight proved cruel for Grunwald and his decisions that summer. In addition to the expensive new contracts to his existing players, he also signed a washed-up Hakeem Olajuwon to a three-year, $18-million contract that wound up buying the team just one year of inconsistent service before Olajuwon retired in 2002. Try as he might, Grunwald was never able to dig himself out of the financial hole that he created in the summer of 2001 and he was eventually relieved of his duties in 2004 after three seasons without a Playoff appearance.

Like I said, though, I remember that summer clearly, and how that summer is frequently remembered is not how that summer played out. Or at least the cold numbers don’t do justice to the big picture that was in play in 2001.

Remember, it was in March of 2001 that it was announced that the Vancouver Grizzlies would be relocated to Memphis, Tennessee. The Raptors success in the 2000-01 season was just three years removed from what to this day stands as the most desultory in team history, the 16-66 campaign of 1997-98 (the year that Damon Stoudamire demanded a trade out of town and the club brought in their third head coach in three seasons). Plus there was the aforementioned McGrady situation and Charles Oakley’s rumoured trade demand. The team had seen some very dark times prior to their successes that season and there was a strong belief that the Raptors could not afford to lose the momentum of the 2000-01 season. They could not afford to lose another superstar, they could not afford to backslide into irrelevance, they had to capitalize on their good fortune and keep the good times rolling lest they slide back into the dark times and all of the uncertainty that comes with such a fate.

Many thought that a return to the dark times was inevitable. Davis and Alvin Williams were strong candidates to be poached away from Toronto and the assumption was that if that happened Carter would be a lock to follow them out the door. Davis, in particular, was fervently pursued by the Orlando Magic and never seemed all that interested in staying in Toronto, while Williams was strongly courted by Chicago and Atlanta. So while the Raptors may have overpaid to re-sign them (Davis’ deal with worth $64-million over five years, Williams received seven-year, $42-million contract and Jerome Williams signed for seven years at $40.8-million), it wasn’t like there weren’t other suitors vying for their services and at the time for the Raptors to retain their own they had to overpay to make it happen.

I remember that there was legitimate shock when Davis and Alvin Williams decided to re-up in Toronto. It was a little bit of a validation moment, which was of course exaggerated when Carter and Olajuwon joined them later that summer. Toronto was becoming a real NBA team, an actual player on the NBA landscape. The New York Times called them one of the favourites to win the East. That was a big deal back in 2001, one that maybe outweighed danger inherent locking up so much long-term money in such a small core of players.

So why is all of this relevant in the summer of 2014, thirteen years after the fact and a generation removed from that summer? Because circumstances have put the Raptors back in the shoes of their 2001 counterparts, and Masai Ujiri is going to have to navigate many of the same waters that Grunwald did while hopefully improving upon his outcome.

In an attempt to create as much financial flexibility as possible in his first year on the job, Ujiri assembled a robust collection of expiring contracts that was supposed to give the Raptors a boatload of cap room to play with this summer and beyond. In an unexpected turn of events, however, that collection of players turned out to be a pretty good ball club. In these Playoffs, in fact, the three players with the highest PER are Patrick Patterson (18.9), Greivis Vasquez (18.7) and Kyle Lowry (16.0) — all free agents this summer. Plus, the next guy on the list, Amir Johnson (15.9), has only a partially-guaranteed contract for next season.

This puts Ujiri into a tight corner. Does he work to keep some the most productive elements of his roster together because they created such unexpected success this season, or does he roll the dice and only bring back a select few and risk upsetting the apple cart? Keep in mind that I am operating under the presumption that at least one player of relevance will probably also be traded at some point this off-season, if only because this team is ‘good’ and not ‘great’ and further upgrades need to occur if they want to take the next step forward and with so many free agents in play there aren’t a lot of meaningful contracts left for the team to deal.

The argument for keeping the band together is obvious: this team has just completed their most successful regular season ever and is in the midst of pushing the Brooklyn Nets harder than most expected (regardless of the series outcome). Plus, guys like Patterson, Vasquez and Johnson are just good players and great fits for this team’s core, not to mention Lowry as an absolutely indispensable asset that the club now simply cannot afford to lose.

The opposing argument is that, while good, this team still has a long way to go and they need to preserve a certain amount of flexibility because they’ll still need a massive talent infusion if they want to play at the level of the NBA’s best. Like in 2001, there are sentimental reasons for wanting to keep this train rolling along, but are those reasons the most pragmatic given the longterm goals and aspirations for this club?

Of course, this isn’t 2001 and the parallels between then and now are not endless. There isn’t the same stigma against Toronto as a free agent destination as there was back then. Sure, one could still be said to exist, but that concession has to come with caveat that that stigma is only a fraction of what it once was. Secondly, contracts are not as long or expensive as they once were, especially for role players, so there is still a chance the Raptors could afford to mostly keep this group together while still maintaining enough flexibility to improve as needed.

Still, there is a fascinating debate at the heart of this issue that will be addressed by Ujiri one way or another this summer. Does he believe that there is merit in maintaining a certain level of continuity, given the successes that the club has achieved this season, or does he buy into the notion that the team hasn’t actually achieved anything substantiative yet and nothing about this team’s current assemblage should be seen as precious. I would consider that to be an overly cynical view to take in light of how little success the Raptors have seen in their nineteen-season history, but if an NBA title is all that this club can measure success by then perhaps such cynicism is validated.

In his three years with Denver, Ujiri was not noted for his sentimentality. He would gush about a player one day and trade him the next. However, Denver did not possess the same psychic scars as Toronto. Breaking up this team, or allowing it to be broken up, will come with the expectation that much better times are on the horizon. Internally there may be the belief that the Raptors haven’t achieved anything yet, but there are thousands of fans who stand outside in the cold to watch their team play from outsidetheir arena that would disagree that nothing has been achieved. They may not be where they want the club to be yet, but they’ve struck a chord with the city and that means something, too.

In 2001, that meant that all stops had to be pulled out to keep the team together. It will be interesting to see what it means in the summer of 2014.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/04/29/summer-looming-raptors-2014-echoes-2001/feed/82Raptors Should Be The Frontrunner for Kyle Lowry in Free Agencyhttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/13/raptors-frontrunner-kyle-lowry-free-agency/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/13/raptors-frontrunner-kyle-lowry-free-agency/#commentsMon, 13 Jan 2014 18:00:16 +0000http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/?p=40364Re-signing with the Toronto Raptors should be Kyle Lowry's first priority in free agency this summer.

]]>When Kyle Lowry was brought to Toronto in the summer of 2012 by then-GM Bryan Colangelo the acquisition was hailed because the Raptors organization appeared to have found their elusive “point guard of the future” [as an aside, I’ve really grown to loathe that term and what it supposedly implies]. Unfortunately, under Colangelo’s watch Lowry struggled to live up to such a lofty expectations. He clashed with his coach, he failed to buy-in to Toronto’s defensive principles and the team as a whole never looked cohesive under his leadership. When the Raptors stumbled out of the gate this season, Lowry was very loudly put on the trading block and wasn’t expected to see 2014 as a member of the Toronto Raptors.

Well, it’s 2014, and Lowry looks as established with the Raptors as he’s ever looked, so much so that he’s reportedly been pulled off the market and instead been slotted into Toronto’s future team-building plans. How’s that for a quick turnaround?

The genesis of Lowry’s reclamation was the departure of good friend Rudy Gay, as so much of Toronto’s good fortune has been been this season. With Gay gone, Lowry was thrust into a leadership position with the team, and while that might have been a disaster only a year ago, this season it’s been the key to unlocking the full potential of Lowry’s game. Since Gay’s departure Lowry’s usage has increased (from 18.7% of possessions used to 20.8%), his assist percentage has spiked (from 30% to 36.5%) and he’s shooting the best true shooting percentage of his career (59.6 TS%). The team has catapulted from basement-dweller to one of the hottest teams in the NBA and made Lowry one of the most intriguing free agent options on the open market this summer.

Which, obviously, has Raptors fans worried.

Toronto is not famous for its ability to retain its own free agents without wildly overpaying to keep them. With Lowry having a career-year before heading into free agency, a good number of fans think that the Raptors should divest themselves of Lowry now for whatever they can get instead of losing him for nothing next summer. After all, Lowry is getting All-Star attention, so why would he limit himself to Toronto when there are so many better options out there for him in free agency?

To that point I have to ask: what team is a better option than Toronto? I’m serious, find me a place on the NBA landscape that is better equipped to sign Kyle Lowry next summer than Toronto. It’s not easy.

Let’s first assume that even if starting isn’t a huge factor in Lowry’s decision making (though it probably is) then playing time will be. While some teams will split their minutes at point guard pretty evenly between two options, the following teams probably won’t because of how good their current starter is: Boston, Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, LA Clippers, Minnesota, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and Washington – that’s sixteen teams eliminated right off the bat from contention for Kyle Lowry’s services because they simply don’t have the minutes available to allocate to him to justify his going there.

After that you have a smattering of teams that may not have an All-Star in tow but aren’t exactly on the hunt for an upgrade (Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis and Indiana), teams that can’t afford to sign Lowry (New York and Miami) and a team that is more interested in finding their point guard in the draft rather than in free agency (Orlando). Detroit and Milwaukee spent a lot of money to swap point guards last summer, and while those guards have done well to show their new teams why their old teams gave up on them, that fact also makes it hard for either team to clear the decks to offer Lowry the money and minutes he’ll probably be seeking in July. Sacramento wants a point guard upgrade now, but given how thoroughly Lowry’s flourished out of Rudy Gay’s shadow, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he steps back behind it again in free agency. Oh, and good luck getting Kevin McHale and Lowry to ever work together again, a situation that basically kills any chance of Lowry winding up in Houston.

That leaves one team as a credible threat to lure Lowry away from Toronto: The Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers have the glamour town, a ton of cap space and superstar to play alongside. The problem with Los Angeles, though, is that they appear more interested in giving Kobe Bryant an epic two-year sendoff than building a competitive team under the rules of the new collective bargaining agreement. That organization looks like a mess right now from a competitive standpoint, and while you can never totally rule out the Lakers as a free agent destination (*cough*stevenash*cough*), going there would appear to fly in the face of the competitive nature that Lowry has come to be known for.

What about Toronto, though? This is a young team on the rise in, let’s face it, an easier conference to compete in. Lowry is basically the undisputed leader of the team, but he also has a blossoming shooting guard as a sidekick that makes life a lot easier for Lowry out on the court. The Raptors are in a good position to bump Lowry’s salary up into the range of his peers (the $7-$9-million rage of Goran Dragic and Jeff Teague; remember, Lowry will be 28 when free agency hits so he doesn’t get the benefit of ‘young player on the rise’ money) while still maintaining a lot of flexibility for roster moves to improve the overall quality of the club. He’s finally got a coach that stands behind him, so much so that he’s stumping for his All-Star candidacy, and a GM that understands how to build a team with a small, aggressive point guard at it’s centre. The fan base has embraced him, the media can’t stop singing his praises and it’s hard to envision a team that could make better use of his particular skills while better hiding his particular flaws. It may have taken far longer than Colangelo would have liked, but Lowry and Toronto have indeed developed into a hand-in-glove fit, which is probably the organization is bullish about their ability to re-sign him this summer.

The fact is that for the first time in a long time, and maybe ever, an All-Star calibre player in Toronto may hit free agency with Toronto still representing his best and most desirable choice on the open market. Toronto has (eventually) given Lowry everything that he’s wanted in his career and Lowry has (eventually) given Toronto everything they could have wanted out of him. Yes it’s early still and things might still go sideways (that’s the kind of hedge you feel obligated to give about the Raptors after writing about them for a decade) but right now the Raptors look smart for holding onto Lowry and have every reason to feel confident that they can secure his services again this summer. Just chalk it up as another smack-in-the-face reminder that these Raptors really are starting to make a break from their underwhelming past. Now all they have to do is keep it up.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2014/01/13/raptors-frontrunner-kyle-lowry-free-agency/feed/89Letting go of Chris Boshhttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/05/letting-go-of-chris-bosh/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/05/letting-go-of-chris-bosh/#commentsMon, 05 Jul 2010 10:41:11 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=18422How Bosh has managed to transform the public's perception of him from "good player tired of losing" to "greedy attention-seeking diva" is truly a thing of beauty. He has handled the 2010 free-agency period about as poorly as one can. Whereas Dwayne Wade and LeBron James have met with other teams without alienating their existing ones, Chris Bosh has done exactly that.

There weren’t many Raptors fans who expected Chris Bosh to stay in Toronto once the season had ended, let alone blame him for leaving. Instead, we blamed Colangelo for using bandaids to fix hemorrhages and bringing us to the point where we’d be losing a highly sought player for nothing. Unlike Vince Carter or Tracy McGrady, and more like Roy Halladay, Chris Bosh would not be seen as a bad guy, and the reasons for his departure would be plainly understood by the fans. Despite what you thought of his strong points or shortcomings as a player, his exit was more or less understood because as he stated so clearly, he cared about nothing but winning and any self-searching Raptors fans can tell you that we’re not close to that. “I want to play in the postseason. I want to advance. I’ve been playing seven years. It’s time to start thinking about stuff like that for me, because I don’t know how many years I have left. I know I’m still a young player, but I remember when I got drafted guys were 25, 26, and now they’re on their last deals,” Bosh had said.

How Bosh has managed to transform the public’s perception of him from “good player tired of losing” to “greedy attention-seeking diva” is truly a thing of beauty. All Raptors fans wanted was a little feigned sadness and respect, instead we got a dose of egotism that changed our perception of him for the worse. He has handled the 2010 free-agency period about as poorly as one can. Whereas Dwayne Wade and LeBron James have met with other teams without alienating their existing ones, Chris Bosh has done exactly that. He’s managed to damage, if not burn the bridge with the Raptors 140 characters at a time for no other reason than to shine the light of attention upon him, and it has completely backfired. At LeBron James’ meeting with the Bulls in Cleveland, Cavs fans thronged the streets holding signs and booing the Bulls’ motorcade. Would anybody in Toronto even bother sending him an email asking him to stay? I think not. Even loyal fans have stopped updating their “Chris Bosh, please stay” website, and you can’t blame them.

Bryan Colangelo hasn’t sounded confident of re-signing Chris Bosh since the season ended, but the recent rumours that he’s inclining towards not even bothering with a sign-and-trade just to teach Bosh a lesson is reason to be concerned. As much as some would like to see Chris Bosh out $30 million, that line of thinking is hardly prudent and bordering on neglect. Amidst all the free-agency mayhem, one thing should not be lost: Bryan Colangelo cost us a decent return on Chris Bosh. An NBA GM must have the foresight of seeing what could transpire in the future, weigh his chances, and act accordingly. Hindsight is definitely 20/20, but fans aren’t being unfair to Colangelo when they state that he should have traded Bosh at the deadline, if not last summer. Instead of basing his decision not to trade him on wins against the NBA’s minnows before the All-Star break, Colangelo should’ve separated water from wine and done the right thing – traded Chris Bosh. Anyway, this post isn’t written to whine about that, so I digress.

As stated yesterday, there are reasons why a sign-and-trade with a trade exception as return isn’t the greatest option, but it is one that has more merits than disadvantages. The same is true for receiving whatever Miami will throw at us. Michael Beasley isn’t a model citizen or a player, but he is a second overall pick who has shown more than what our first overall selection has, and to think that he can’t help this team (on the court or in another transaction) is not seeing the forest for the marijuana trees. Writing off Beasley after two years but sticking with Bargnani after four doesn’t compute (year 1 comparison, year 2 comparison). Same goes for Mario Chalmers, obviously the two aren’t “fair” return value for Bosh, but at this point you swallow your pride, take the deal, and build on it or parlay it into something else. Or do you call the bluff?

It’s unlikely that Bosh’s attention-starved ways have cost him a maximum contract on the open market with a team who has the cap space but not the route to acquire James or Wade. However, Bosh will be, at the very least, reluctant to leave $30 million on the table, after all, he’s showing that he’s a business man first and a basketball player second. If Colangelo refuses to partake in sign-and-trade deals, you could see the Raptors become Bosh’s only option, and as interest in him dies down, it’s possible that he’ll come crawling back to the Raptors. In this case, what do the Raptors do? If this does happen, it’s clear that the only reason he’s considering Toronto is because of the money and nothing else. Do we want a player like that, especially given his track record when it comes to winning and being the focal point of a team?

If Bosh truly, in his heart of hearts cared about winning, he’s recognize the plain truth – he’s in a lower tier that of Wade and James, and take less money to sign with the Heat and bring fruition to Team Trinity. But that’s not happening and it speaks to his priorities.

The other issue of confusion these days is what to think of Chris Bosh’s service in a Raptors uniform. Overall, it’s to be appreciated and met with applause, he played relatively hard throughout his career, didn’t complain, brought the points and rebounds, and accepted the role of the franchise player which was shoved upon him only because there was no one better. After Vince Carter left, the franchise was desperate to replace him for fear of losing the momentum Carter had brought to the city, and Bosh was presented as the man leading the charge. It wasn’t fair to ask that of him and when he didn’t deliver instant glory, people started questioning his superstar status, when he didn’t even claim to be one. As the saying goes, some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness, rather unsuccessfully, thrust upon them. The latter applies to Bosh. Good player, good competitor, not a good leader and hence, a longshot to be a franchise player.

The debate of whether the GM did enough to surround him with talent, or whether he failed to lead the team, can go on for months without anything fruitful coming from it, our time is better served looking to the future than dwelling on the past. And Chris Bosh is now part of the past. Just like Mitch Richmond in Sacramento, Ray Allen in Milwaukee, Tracy McGrady in Orlando, Grant Hill in Detroit, Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, and the many failed instances of a single second-tier star trying to lead a team to glory, this era has ended.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/05/letting-go-of-chris-bosh/feed/123In The Land Of The Blind, The One-eyed Man Is Kinghttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/02/in-the-land-of-the-blind-the-one-eyed-man-is-king/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/02/in-the-land-of-the-blind-the-one-eyed-man-is-king/#commentsFri, 02 Jul 2010 09:30:07 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=18340I'm very happy that Amir Johnson is returning to the Raptors, but let's start with addressing the "overpayment". Don't get me - or anyone else who is opposed to Colangelo throwing out money like it's of the Monopoly type - wrong, but does one season of averaging 6.2 points and 4.8 rebounds warrant this kind of money, or is this contract based entirely on potential and not proven worth?

I’m very happy that Amir Johnson is returning to the Raptors, but let’s start with addressing the “overpayment”. Don’t get me – or anyone else who is opposed to Colangelo throwing out money like it’s of the Monopoly type – wrong, but does one season of averaging 6.2 points and 4.8 rebounds warrant this kind of cash, or is this contract based entirely on potential and not proven worth? The hustle and effort that Johnson plays with was one of the lone bright spots on the Raptors last year, but that’s only so because the rest of the team was terrible at exactly those things. Hence the saying and the title of this post. If Johnson had the year he had last year on any other team, he would’ve been negotiating with all 30 NBA teams for a contract, luckily for him his GM is Colangelo who’s haggling techniques would see him pay 5 bucks for a mango in Chinatown.

Nobody can be against the actual signing, but the speed of which it happens tells me that the Raptors were the only team that Johnson seriously talked with. Apparently there was interest from Golden State and Phoenix, but once they saw what Colangelo had offered, they backed out. Looking around the league, you’ll see contracts on either side of the debate of whether Johnson is deserving of the coin. For every Carl Landry ($3M), there’s an Emeka Okafor ($11.5M), but the trend in large seems to be teams using rookie contracts to fill the “dirty work” big man positions – Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Dejuan Blair, J.J Hickson, and Taj Gibson come to mind, a strategy that makes too much sense. I realize that’s comparing apples to oranges since those guys have yet to sign their first non-rookie-scale deal or are second rounders, so let’s look at those who have:

I’d like to think this is a site where you get to have an opinion and not just receive one, so you decide if we paid too much. The one thing I’d like to point out is that Johnson is only 23 years of age which is younger than any of those players.

Perhaps it’s the Raptors’ desperate need for defense now that Chris Bosh is gone that prompted Bryan Colangelo to nab Johnson early, but now that he’s got a big deal, the latter better do more than just play one side of the floor. Johnson needs to do significantly better than just come off the bench, play aggressively (and recklessly), and then return to the pine dripped in hustle sweat. Those on-off stats tend to be a little skewed when your tendency to pick up fouls limit your minutes and basically leave your team hanging out to dry for the majority of the game. Unlike last year, the competition in the hustle category is going to be fierce with Ed Davis, a defensive-oriented big man, whose rebounding could make a case for minutes even ahead of Johnson, and Solomon Alabi. So maintain status-quo is not good enough, after all, averaging 6.2/4.8 on the league’s worst defensive team is nothing to write home about to begin with. Overpaying role players in Toronto seems to be a trend, Jerome Williams, Rafer Alston, Kris Humphries, Jason Kapono…the list literally goes on and on. Hopefully this time around the potential the GM saw when offering the contract actually pans out, because that is what the contract was handed out on – potential.

Johnson will be entering his sixth season, granted he only played a total of 11 games his first two seasons, and will be asked to carry more of an offensive burden than before. The first thing he needs to work on is his mid-range jumper, which is what defenses will test if he gets increased minutes. The easy thing to do when that shot is presented is to pass it up to a teammate, hopefully for a better look, but the great thing to do is to knock it down and add another, never before seen, dimension to your game. As I already noted, he’s only 23 years old and has gotten significantly better in all categories (counting PER48 here) the last two seasons. If he adds a jumper and a post-move to the mix, you could see Kurt Thomas or Udonis Haslem type player in no time. Key word in the previous sentence is if. His offensive game has a long ways to go, one can’t just look at his TS% of 63.9% and call him an efficient scorer, that can only be done when he has a high enough usage rate (currently only 11.1%) and plays starter minutes, not just 17.7.

The impact of Jose Calderon’s likely exit should not be discounted; Calderon was instrumental in setting up Johnson with a lot of his offense, the familiarity on the pick ‘n roll the two had developed was great to watch and it’ll be interesting to see how he functions if Calderon exits, a likely possibility. Johnson never developed great chemistry with Jarrett Jack, and if Johnson’s offensive game is expected to flourish, you’d have to bet against that happening with Jack as point guard. You never know how increased minutes combined with a better defensive frontcourt partner would fair, but it looks like all his increased role will do is put him on the court with Andrea Bargnani, a man who can singlehandedly get everyone else but himself into foul trouble. It’ll be interesting. To say the least.

—

There’s tons more going on, including PJ Carlesimo paying a visit to see Hedo Turkoglu and the Raptors being interested in Amare Stoudemire. The Turkoglu story isn’t great news for me because I wanted that era to end just as quickly as the O’Neal one did, he doesn’t strike me as a player who will wake up one day and suddenly become motivated to play defense, try hard and become a leader on the team. After all, he already got paid. The Raptors would do well to listen to the Magic offers for Turkoglu and see if they can grab Marcin Gortat, that to me would instantly make the Raptors a better rebounding and defensive team. With Gortat, Johnson, Davis and Alabi’s shot-blocking and 7’1″ frame manning the painted area, maybe, just maybe, they could excuse Andrea Bargnani for only playing man-defense.

There’s obviously some history between Colangelo and Stoudemire (he drafted him in Phoenix), but is that going to be enough for Stoudemire to come to Toronto? The lack of proven players on the Raptors roster is going to be a big deterrent for any serious free-agents used to winning to want to come here. Once again, gross overpayment might be required but if Phoenix is willing to swallow Bargnani in return, we could do it.

It’s a great day for Amir Johnson and this guy. Check the newly added “Hot Topics” throughout the day and of course, the effervescent forums. I’ll leave you with some Chris Bosh tweets including a tweaser (What’s a tweaser you ask? It’s a tweet designed to tease):

I’m starving and ready for dinner. Grabbing some food with close friends… Maybe we’ll discuss everything that happened today

This tweet came after he met with the Nets and said:

New Jersey meeting was very good as well. These guys really know how to sell a franchise

Before that he met with the Heat:

Off to a great start. First one went well. Pat Riley is very passionate about winning.

That was after he met with Houston and the Raptors:

It’s been an exciting first couple of hrs. Got some interesting visits and presentations from Houston, Toronto,

I really want this Bosh issue handled by July 11th when the World Cup ends, I can’t afford to go back to following basketball closely and deal with this guy. Some World Cup stuff now – today is Netherlands vs Brazil and Ghana vs Uruguay, reason I mention this is because I think the Ghana flag is the most bad-ass flag in the world with the best colors.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/07/02/in-the-land-of-the-blind-the-one-eyed-man-is-king/feed/75Bosh’s Decision in Strictly Fiscal Termshttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/26/boshs-decision-in-strictly-fiscal-terms/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/26/boshs-decision-in-strictly-fiscal-terms/#commentsThu, 26 Nov 2009 18:46:51 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=12615After my last Chris Bosh piece, I spent the weekend discussing with some friends whether or not he would re-up with the Raptors after this season. While I remain hopeful he’ll be the franchise’s cornerstone for the length of another max contract, the possibility exists that Bosh will leave. What my discussions about his future... Read more »

]]>After my last Chris Bosh piece, I spent the weekend discussing with some friends whether or not he would re-up with the Raptors after this season. While I remain hopeful he’ll be the franchise’s cornerstone for the length of another max contract, the possibility exists that Bosh will leave.

What my discussions about his future with the team got me thinking about was why he would stay with the Raptors. Obviously loyalty, comfort, a chance to be moderately competitive, being the face of basketball for an entire country, and money are factors that would push him toward resigning to some degree.

Money is the issue most look at the closest, so I wanted to dig a little deeper in that regard. I know, for instance, that the Raptors, by way of holding his Bird Rights, can offer him larger raises (10.5% annual non-compounded vs. 8% annual non-compounded), more years (six vs. five), and a larger starting salary (110.5% of his current salary vs. 105% of his current salary) than other teams can. This, of course, can be negated via a sign and trade, basically making any team ‘able’ to offer him these contractual terms should they offer the Raptors something of significant value to do it. The sign and trade is rare and complicated, though, and could be considered an asset belonging to the Raptors as much as to another team (creating incoming value for an otherwise outgoing free agent).

Over the life of the contract, the Raptors can offer approximately $36.5M more than any other team, though this is overstated to a degree by the extra year. Over just five years, they can still offer approximately $9.9M more than anyone else (and yes, that means Bosh would be pulling in $26.6M in 2015-16).

But these are just numbers, and raw numbers at that. It isn’t enough to look at money in terms of a simple number, just as it isn’t enough to look at interest rates without taking inflation into account. Yes, even in the sports world, there is a large difference between nominal and real dollars. Nominal dollars, of course, are what we hear reported most often…they are easiest to understand, and the salary cap and luxury tax are explained and adhered to in terms of nominal adjustment. The Raptors get no currency exchange, the Heat face no restrictions for the lack of a state tax in Florida, and the Lakers get no kickback due to the high cost of living and operating in California.

For an intelligent player, factors like these would certainly find their way into a decision set when choosing what team to sign with. The following analysis tries to take into account the Bird Rights advantage, state and federal income taxes, and local cost of living indices. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a feasible way to incorporate market size or marketability into the analysis, however, I sorted the results before cost of living was factored in – you may want to use the After Tax Earnings as a de facto results column, since cost of living may either be ignored by players or cancelled out by the opportunities that come with a wealthier/larger market.

The chart below (click to enlarge…seriously) shows all 30 teams, with disregard for actual cap space because so much can happen between now and the summer, and what they can offer Chris Bosh strictly in terms of money, factoring in a few nuances that turn nominal money into real money.

Obviously, even in after-tax earnings, the Raptors can offer more money than anyone else. This is an extremely important distinction because one of the main knocks against Toronto in the free agent market is the adverse income tax structure in Ontario. After the Raptors, the tax-free-state teams can offer the most, and there are intriguing options like Memphis (strong young core), Miami (weather and Wade), Orlando (championship contender and D-12), and the three Texas teams (all competitive, and Bosh’s home state). While not all of these teams will have cap space, if they do they pose the most significant monetary threat to the Raptors. The California teams would be at the largest disadvantage, able to offer $10M less in real dollars over the course of the contract than those teams in tax-free states.

When we figure in the cost of living, things get less certain for the Raps. Cost of living is a tricky area though. For one, cost of living isn’t a large part of most people’s decision sets – people simply don’t recognize the value in living in an inexpensive area. There could be several reasons for this, chief among them being (for athletes) the correlation between market size and cost of living. More expensive places to live are generally more populous, and more heavily populated areas tend to be looked at as more favorable destinations for social and marketing reasons. Again, this is why I didn’t sort the chart by the post-COLA column…cost of living may be irrelevant, or it may be cancelled out by factors that correlate with cost of living. A final note is that there is also a fairly significant cost of moving, which isn’t factored into COLA here but would affect Bosh’s financial bottom line. Selling his place in Toronto, moving, and starting anew is a costly procedure, though in terms of a $100M contract it is probably bubble gum to Bosh.

(An interesting note for us local Raptor fans: Toronto is one of the most expensive cities in the world to live, checking in just ahead of Los Angeles at 54th in 2008 but falling to 85th in 2009. The more you know…)

This analysis, of course, applies for all players and all teams (and feel free to email me at bmurphy5586@hotmail.com for the Excel file…it is simple but a fun thing to play around with).

The conclusion is what we all knew already – if the decision were strictly financial, Bosh’s options would be limited to the Raptors or a team that could work a sign and trade. As it is, there are things like quality of the team, the city, other players and friends, taxes, and personal preferences all tugging at Bosh (and the entire Class of 2010)…what he puts into his final decision set, we’ll never know. We can wait…

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/26/boshs-decision-in-strictly-fiscal-terms/feed/107Free Agency, Day 1: The Ball Is In YOUR Court…http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/07/01/free-agency-day-1-the-ball-is-in-your-court/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/07/01/free-agency-day-1-the-ball-is-in-your-court/#commentsWed, 01 Jul 2009 14:11:40 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=8663We weren’t expecting Evans, who else is on tap? No rumours or chatter about anything other then Marion, so I turn to you, what do you think will happen, and (just for fun) what would YOU do if you were Bryan Colangelo?