While the Creative Arts Emmys over the weekend may affect the momentum in a variety of races going into next weekend, only two of this year’s Comedy Actor nominees are from shows that won Creative Arts Awards. And neither of those victories — “Master of None” for Best Picture Editing (Single-Camera Comedy) and “Shameless” for Best Stunt Coordination (Comedy/Variety) — give us much sense of what the academy actors branch will do. So if there’s an upset to be found, who might it come from?

The likeliest seems to be Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”), who ranks second with 11/2 odds (15% chance of winning), and for good reason: he has won for the last two years in a row. But maybe the Creative Arts Awards really are telling in this case. “Transparent” won three Creative Arts prizes in 2015, and then one in 2016, but it didn’t win any in 2017, which may indicate waning support across multiple branches of the TV academy.

The next three nominees are bunched closely together in our odds: Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”) with 10/1 odds (9% chance), William H. Macy (“Shameless”) with 12/1 odds (8% chance), and Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”) with 18/1 odds (5% chance). Rounding out the category is Zach Galifianakis (“Baskets”), who trails with 40/1 odds (2% chance of winning), but we can’t count him out either as his on-screen mother Louie Anderson won Best Comedy Supporting Actor last year and could do it again.

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.