MURICO.com Forum

The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

5/9/18 was up a paltry 0.01 to 63.74. Component changes like that don't close much "Gap". The KKKs are now trading premium to the component by 1.79 with three more days of data to come in. The model calculates that it will take an average daily 0.75 to close that "Gap". My bias is that packers will not all of a sudden become that generous with their bidding for hogs. The component has moved up an average of 0.18 for the past 7-days.

So -

I sold some KKKs this morning.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was up mildly at 214.13#. That is +2.32# yr/yr. Packer hogs are +3.95# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Index hogs were a bit heavier but are still lighter at 212.86#. It appears that producers of index hogs are more current in their shipments than other producers.

Packer hogs have made up 32.97% of the kill mix for the past 200-days. For the past 6-days the percentage has been 34.45%. Packers may have an ample inventory of hogs they can bring to market is the supply of market ready index hogs dry up.

I had an order working to sell the June cattle/hog spread but they didn't make it that high.