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Athletics, Royals to go ‘under’ MLB Odds This Time

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

It may be a low scoring affair in the Show Me State Wednesday night when Scott Kazmir and the Oakland Athletics (73-46, 36-25 away) again pay a visit to fellow southpaw Jason Vargas and the Kansas City Royals (64-54, 31-28 home) in the third game of a big four-game series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.

High-Scoring Game Last Night
The Athletics still own the best record in the entire Major Leagues at 73-46, but they only maintained their 3½-game lead over the team with the second best record, the Los Angeles Angels, in the American League West with their 11-3 win here last night. All those runs were much to our chagrin as we held a losing ‘under’ ticket, but that does not deter is from coming right back with the ‘under’ again here tonight.

The A’s may have the league’s best record, but the Royals were the hottest recent MLB picks until last night as the defeat snapped an eight-game winning streak. The good news there is that the Detroit Tigers also lost in Pittsburgh, so Kansas City remains in first place in the American League Central by one-half game over the prohibitive preseason favorites, a Tiger team that had supposedly sewn up the division with the acquisition of David Price at the trading deadline.

Kazmir to Get Back on Track?
Kazmir has been a great story this season making the All-Star Game just two years after being out of organized baseball for an entire season, and that berth was deserved as he is 13-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and a nice ratio of 122 strikeouts vs. 32 walks in 142 innings. However Kazmir did allow five earned runs in 6.2 innings vs. the Minnesota Twins his last time out on the heels of allowing four earned runs on 10 hits in six innings his prior start.

However we see those two outings has just a blip on the radar for Kazmir, especially since he walked just one batter in each start. Remember that wildness was the reason Kazmir ended up out of the league, and now that he has apparently re-learned to harness his control, he is starting to rediscover his glory years. And remember that he is still only 30 years old, so Kazmir still has some good years left in him provided he continues to minimize his walks.

Third Start Back from Appendectomy
Vargas was off to a fine start in his first year with the Royals as he was 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA following his July 8th start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, but he then underwent an appendectomy that kept him out of action for about a month and he has understandably not looked as sharp in his two starts since returning.

The good news there is that his second start was better than his first, as after allowing seven runs (but only four earned) on six hits in 4.1 innings vs. there Athletics in his return effort, he followed up by allowing two runs, albeit on nine hits, in five innings vs. the San Francisco Giants on Friday. Furthermore Vargas has 10 strikeouts and not a single walk in his 9.1 comeback innings and he only figures to be stronger in this third start back.

Bullpens to the Rescue
And should either of these starters get in danger, it is re-assuring that these are two very good bullpens that have maintained their final form as of late. The Oakland bullpen has a collective 2.22 ERA and 0.05 WHIP over the past 10 games, while the Kansas City bullpen has a cumulative 2.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over that same 10-game span with its stable of young live arms recording 33 strikeouts in 30 innings.

With less likelihood of late tack-on runs due to these fine pens, we again recommend going ‘under’ in Kansas City on Wednesday.