The woman who could beat Walker

Part of an occasional series on the hottest races of the 2014 midterm election.

VIROQUA, Wis. — Mary Burke might be the last candidate you’d expect to potentially topple one of the Republican Party’s leading governors and upend the 2016 presidential field. The only elected office she’s ever held is a school board seat. She didn’t even become a Democrat until her 40s. And in heavily working class Wisconsin, it was only two years ago that the scion to the Trek Bicycle fortune was being dismissed by her own party as a “1 percenter.”

Story Continued Below

Yet here she is, tied with Walker in the polls, finally getting some overdue attention from the national press — and within striking distance of delivering the biggest shock of Election 2014. And on Tuesday night, she cruised to victory in her primary for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Wisconsin.

In a reflection of how competitive this race has become, sources told POLITICO that the Republican Governors Association has reserved $2.3 million this fall in Wisconsin — making the contest one of the party’s top gubernatorial priorities.

The 55-year-old Burke could hardly be more different than Walker. She’s a Harvard-educated multimillionaire who rarely goes to church; he’s a middle-class son of a preacher who is just now trying to complete his college degree. She’s spent her career in the family business and philanthropy; he’s been in government for two decades. She’s spent much of her campaign trying to win over progressives wary of her background in finance; he became a conservativeicon after beating back the unions in an epic clash two years ago.

“I knew I probably didn’t fit the typical mold,” Burke said during an interview, as her campaign bus rolled from a hops farm in Mazomanie to a brewery in Potosi. “While I have the business background, I really — how should I say this? — I prefer the work in the public sector.”

Burke is pitching herself as a nonideological antidote to the rancor and polarization of the Walker years. She introduces herself as “a fiscal conservative” and promises to work with the Republican-controlled Legislature. Though she talks around it on the trail, she would not, for instance, work to fully repeal the union-weakening law that has defined Walker’s tenure.

Burke’s bet is twofold: First, that liberals despise Walker enough to mobilize for her in spite of her pro-business profile. Second, that her corporate bona fides will attract a critical mass of moderates worried about Wisconsin’s lagging economy.

Walker is the first to acknowledge that his third statewide campaign in four years is no cakewalk.

“The reality is we’re much better off, we’re heading down the right path and people are feeling good about where we’re headed,” he said in an interview. But “this is historically a very, very, very politically tight state. It’s still going to be one heck of a close election.”

Welcome to the big leagues

Taking on Walker would be a daunting challenge for the most seasoned pol, let alone a candidate making the rough equivalent of a major league debut in the playoffs.

Burke has improved on the stump since she jumped into the race last year, even Walker’s team acknowledges. She hired an A-list of former Barack Obama advisers, including respected adman Jim Margolis. But while she’s become more at ease, at times her inexperience shows.

Burke was caught off guard, for example, by a straightforward question about what she thinks of the president’s performance.

“He got us out of the deepest recession that the country has seen,” she said during an interview, “and uh, are there things I agree with him on? Absolutely. Are there things I disagree with him on? Absolutely.”

Like what?

Burke paused for 12 seconds.

“Let’s see,” she said. “You know, probably things in the foreign policy area that are … ”

She paused again. Her communications director threw her a lifeline: trade. “That’s a good one … thanks,” she said.

The Democrats’ theory of the case

“There are a million people who voted in Nov. 2012 who didn’t vote in 2010,” said Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. “If we get 80- or 100,000 of them out, Mary Burke is going to win.”

Burke’s main task is turning out Wisconsin’s progressive coalition: union members, minorities, young people and women. So she talks a lot about her opposition to the state Constitution’s ban on gay marriage, a voter ID law she says was designed to keep black voters from the polls and a series of new restrictions on abortions.

Burke is not, however, a natural champion of the left. Before she jumped into the race, she took heat from liberal activists and bloggers over Trek’s overseas manufacturing — a line of attack Walker now uses in his ads. Her past support for charter schools made unions dubious of Burke’s 2012 bid for school board, but she’s since been a reliable vote on their issues.

“I assessed her as a 1-percenter at the time, but she’s a 1-percenter with one great conscience,” said John Matthews, who heads the Madison teachers union.