Wednesday, 19 April 2017

The art of comedy? Timing

Well, unexpectedly the Prime Minister called a “snap”
General Election yesterday. Unexpectedly because as recently as September 2016
she was quite clear in her refusal to do so “I am not going to be calling a
snap election…we need a period of stability to be able to deal with the issues
the country is facing”. So, why the sudden turnaround in that view? Has the
Prime Minister decided we need less stability? Or that Brexit is actually much
easier than she expected it to be? Or could there be another reason for it?

It all feels a bit strange, and for those people who are
not engaged in politics, this must seem the worst possible outcome. After all
we had the particularly nasty and bad tempered Scottish Independence referendum
in 2014. Then a general election in 2015. Following on from that David Cameron
decided he would shut up UKIP and the brexiteer side of his party by destroying
them with ANOTHER referendum in 2016 (and that went so well for him) on EU
membership. That was quickly followed up with wall to wall coverage of the US
presidential elections (no genuinely, he actually won under their system).

Since then the Prime Minister has insisted that any
referendum on Scottish Independence would be a distraction and the government
must be entirely focussed on Brexit. In fact just 5 weeks ago, she said “Now is
not the time. Just at this point all our energies should be focused on our
negotiations with the European Union”.

So why have we had this sudden change of heart from the
Prime Minister? There are a number of reasons that this may have taken place.
Apparently it is to get a stronger hand for Brexit, and to do the right thing
for the country. There are a number of other alternative theories too, so it
seems only fair that we explore them all. And just for fun, let’s add a
plausibility score out of ten – on whether it has directly impacted on the
announcement at this time.

Official explanation from the PM

Part1: The other parties and the Lords are trying to stop
Brexit, and I need a larger majority to force it through.

An interesting statement really, and one that doesn’t hold
up to scrutiny on any level. Firstly, the other political parties AND the Lords
have had opportunities to delay and frustrate the process. These votes have
been held. The opportunity to stop Brexit has been passed already. The votes
are completed, and Brexit will happen. As Yvette Cooper pointed out today - 3/4 of MPs and 2/3 of Lords voted FOR Brexit when the vote was held. There is no opportunity of stopping
Brexit now, unless there was a massive change in direction and views of the
country. That would really require the PM herself to come back and say “we
can’t achieve what we promised if we leave”. If that were really her fear she
would have called a general election during the NINE MONTHS she has had before
triggering Article 50.

Plausibility rating: I wouldn’t buy a used car from her.

Part 2: Negotiations will continue until just before the
next General Election, and then you will be able to see what deal we have and
start to feel it impacting you. The other countries will use that to drive a
hard bargain.

There is probably more truth in this part of her statement.
But there are some massive implicit promises in there that you are expected to
miss out on. Firstly, it is an acceptance that we will not get everything we
want from any negotiations. In fact, it is the first time publicly that any
Conservative minister has admitted that the negotiations will be a 2-way
street, and that there will be give and take depending on the political
pressures the politicians feel at home. Secondly, there is an admission that
ordinary people will feel the negative impacts of Brexit. Even those who voted
for it and supported it will by then realise we have ended up with a
potentially worse deal than we had.

Theresa May is terrified the government will be blamed for
that. Perhaps, people may think, if they had spent more time negotiating the
best deal and less time threatening war with Spain and coming up with catchy little
phrases we wouldn’t be heading into a recession. I can understand Theresa May
wanting to avoid that. After all, she was a Remain supporter, who never wanted
to leave the EU. She can see closer and in much more detail how hard it will
be. I wouldn’t want to be measured on the basis of how successful or painful it
was in that situation.

Plausibility rating: More than a ring of truth about it.

It’s a snap annihilation of the Labour Party

Obviously, the staunch conservative voters and those who
have wanted the left wing of the Labour party to fail since the election of
Jeremy Corbyn are desperate to believe this is the reason for calling it now.
Certainly, if you believe the polls (you know, the ones that showed us there
would be no overall majority in the last election, that we would remain in the
EU, and that Trump would lose) then this makes good political sense.

However, why now exactly? We have only 2 years to negotiate
the exit from the EU, and this will take 7 weeks out of that timetable. Labour
have been wallowing in the polls for about 18 months. Why not as soon as David
Cameron resigned? Labour have said all along they will support it. So did this
really make Theresa May directly contradict herself and break a promise she
made publicly? Also, was the best time to launch it after Labour have had 2
weeks of announcing a number of incredibly popular policies – one a day – that
have strong public support? Finally, if this IS the case, it is a clear
admission that calling this election has nothing to do with the good of the
country – just the good of the Tory party.

Plausibility rating: A consideration, and an expectation,
but not the main reason.

Alleged Tory electoral fraud from 2015

There is still, hanging over the Tories, a police
investigation into electoral fraud during the 2015 General Election. This arose
because the Tories spent a lot of money in specific target seats that they
claimed as central spending, when actually it directly related to the results
in those seats, allegedly. A file of possible charges has been sent to the
Crown Prosecution Service, and an announcement was expected THIS WEEK.
Obviously, that announcement is now up for grabs.

Certainly, we can glean some clues to this – the fact that
the CPS have confirmed they are still looking to continue this work suggests
there is a case to at least be considered. If there is a fresh election, it
means that this can be glossed over as having been solved at the Ballot Box
instead of in the courts. Secondly, when the Prime Minister was asked, on the
floor of the House of Commons whether she would allow anyone facing criminal or
legal proceedings over this to stand, she said that she would support all Tory
candidates to stand it begins to show the contempt that she feels towards free
and fair elections. Obviously, this is not something that the PM would want to
call an election for. But it may just be that this has been the final straw.
And it is hard to argue against, given the rushed and surprise nature of it,
the obvious U-turning and the fact she is now eating her own words on
stability.

Plausability rating: Ticks the box for the timing aspect.

So, there we have it then. A lot of conjecture, and a lot
of assumptions, and a lot of admittance on the part of the Government about how
bad things are. The most likely scenario is that this is a government who are
afraid of admitting the mess they are making of Brexit forced into this
decision by the timing of CPS decisions. They are putting the needs of their
party above your needs as citizens of this country. I would suggest you
remember that, and don’t let them get away with it when you are in the polling
station.