Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really.

For the first time ever, the annual football analytic book, Football Outsiders Almanac written by the folks at Football Outsiders predicts that the Houston Texans have the highest probability of winning of the AFC South.

Perhaps this mean it is truly the end of days and you should buy guns, gold, duct tape or whatever you are supposed to purchase when the world is coming to an end.

The mean projection for the Texans is 9 wins. The percentages of different win projections are as follows:

Super Bowl Contender (11+ wins): 27%

Playoff Contender (9-10 wins): 31%

Mediocrity (7-8 wins): 25%

Loserville (4-6 wins): 15%

On the Clock (0-3 wins): 1%

I hope to follow up with the folks at Football Outsiders to get some questions about their predictions answered. If you are a football fan that likes intelligent, clever football writing that goes beyond superficiality, I strongly suggest ordering the Football Outsiders Almanac and checking out their website. Even when you don’t agree with their point of view, it makes you think and perhaps challenges some assumptions you have about football.

Felt bad for the folks at FO because they had to wait post-lockout to do tons of writing which reflected post-lockout trades. I ask you give them business, because I like to encourage people that do good work (and had to do this with very little sleep).

I do not like most preseason predictions because I know how most are made. Fans like predictions. So your editor tells you to come up with a prediction. You look at last year’s results and maybe tweak them a bit based on what you know about their quarterback situation. You are likely wrong. Why? In the modern NFL, there’s usually a turnover about 50% new playoff teams, often ones that aren’t expected. (like this list). That’s what makes the NFL fun.

I like the idea of probabilities for a season versus a fixed record prediction because though it is certain that a team will end up with a fixed record, I do not think at this time of year, a team is inherently a __ win team. There’s luck, and then there’s making your own luck. Game of inches and all that.

The Battle in the AFC South.

The short version of Football Outsiders’ view of the division is that 9 wins could win the division. That there’s no clearly dominant team. The percentages predict the division finish being Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans. The projected mean wins are very close with Texans at 9.0, Colts at 7.8, Jaguars 7.2 and then the Titans in the basement at 5 wins. That would work just fine for me.

Last year’s Football Outsiders projection was pretty close, predicting mean wins of 5.6. They don’t go into details about everything that goes into their projections, but last year they discussed concerns about the youth of the defense, the strength of schedule and predicted that the defensive stars would have more injuries. Here’s last year’s write up on the blog, “Football Outsiders predicts the Texans to win….6 games or less?”

So in other words, anyone who says they were completely surprised by last year’s Texans season wasn’t really paying attention. Football Outsiders isn’t always spot on with their projections but what they were saying about last year’s team made a lot of sense.

I like how last year’s Football Outsider’s chapter on the Texans ended:

“The stars on this team are going to be around for a long time, long after the successes or failures of 2010. The Texans are looking at a promising decade — but probably not a good year.”