Kansai Economic Insight Quarterly Vol.44

▶ Although Kansai’s basic economic trends remained robust in 2019Q2, prospects seem bearish due to growing uncertainties, notably the China-US trade conflict and the upcoming tax hike, which caused a noticeable deterioration in expectations-related indicators.

▶ We forecast real GRP growth of +0.6% in FY2019 and +0.5% in FY2020 in Kansai. Private consumption and government spending will prop up growth, contributing +0.8%pt and +0.4%pt in FY2019, while external demand (outside Kansai) will suppress growth by -0.5%pt. The expected FY2020 contributions are +0.3%pt for private consumption, +0.2%pt for government spending, and -0.0%pt for external demand.

▶ We analyze the impact of the trade conflict with Korea on Kansai’s economy and conclude that even if the conflict persists, its impact is likely to be limited.

▶ We expect an even steeper slump in private consumption in 2020 Q2, due to the government’s state of emergency declaration in April.

▶ As social distancing is expected to continue even after the state of emergency is lifted, a swift (V-shaped) recovery in production and consumption seems rather unlikely.

▶ We have updated our forecast for real GDP growth to -5.6% in FY 2020. After two years of negative growth in FY 2019 and FY 2020, we forecast a positive growth of +2.5% in FY 2021.

▶ We forecast a core CPI inflation of -0.4% in FY 2020, and +0.4% in FY 2021. This forecast reflects stagnant domestic and external demand, as well as the combined impact of the decline in gasoline prices, the government’s free childcare program, and the partial or complete elimination of tertiary education fees announced in April this year, which will all exert substantial deflationary pressure.

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

ABSTRACT

Forecasts updates▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q2 is an annualized -14.6% QoQ. Our production-side forecast is an annualized -7.4% QoQ. The average of the two is an annualized -11.0%.▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both -0.3% QoQ. However, as the terms of trade are improving, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of +0.7% QoQ.

ABSTRACT

▶ We estimate that the economic loss caused by the state of emergency in Kansai will be JPY 154.3 billion in terms of private consumption, JPY 825.2 billion in terms of private capital investment, and JPY 3,211.8 billion in terms of exports, adding up to a total GRP loss of JPY 3.75 trillion. 158 thousand employees are expected to lose their jobs.

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

ABSTRACT

Forecasts updates▶ Our latest expenditure-side forecast for Japan’s real GDP growth in 2020 Q1is an annualized -2.7%. Our production-side forecast is an annualized +0.3%. The average of the two forecasts is an annualized -1.2%.▶ Our forecasts for the private final consumption expenditure deflator and the domestic demand deflator in 2020 Q1 are both +0.1% QoQ. As the terms of trade are deteriorating, we forecast an overall GDP deflator of 0.0% QoQ.

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

ABSTRACT

Outlook: Kansai’s economy is likely to remain on a downward trajectory

▶ Production: Production declined in February.▶ International trade: In March, Kansai’s trade surplus was smaller than the previous month.▶ Business confidence: The Economy Watcher DI in March reached an all-time low.▶ Wages: Both nominal and real wages kept declining in January.▶ Labor market: In February, the job offers-to-applicants ratio kept deteriorating, and the unemployment rate kept increasing.▶ Private Consumption: In February, department store sales plummeted while supermarket sales rose due to stockpiling in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.▶ Housing: The number of new housing starts kept decreasing in February.▶ Construction: Construction investments in February kept expanding, albeit at a decelerating pace. The contract amount for public works projects in March increased.▶ Inbound tourism: Due to the impact of the coronavirus, the number of international arrivals at Kansai International Airport in March plunged -95.1% year-on-year.▶ Chinese economy: China saw its Q1 GDP shrink for the first time since quarterly GDP statistics started in 1992.

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast

ABSTRACT

Data updates

▶ Although production increased for the third consecutive month in February, its recovery from the October-November slump has been sluggish.▶ Spending on goods (40% of total private final consumption expenditure) increased in February. However, statistics on spending on services, which have more weight and might have been affected substantially by Covid-19, have not been released yet, making it hard to draw conclusions on private consumption trends.▶ Private housing, private capital investment and changes in private inventories were all bearish in 2020 Q1.▶ February imports were hit particularly hard by Covid-19. That caused an abrupt expansion in net exports, which propped up GDP growth. However, as the global economy entered a synchronized slowdown in March, we expect that exports will decline, which will worsen the trade balance.