En este número

In the past decade, the world has seen an unprecedented flow of capital into emerging market debt and infrastructure projects incentivised by the abnormal increase in money supply and low rates in the US.

The question posed in the title of this text, no doubt has an affirmative answer. Yes, we will have a new recession, but the problem is when we will start to feel it, when will our expectations change and when will we enter another phase of economic downturn, once again and apparently by surprise.

At what point in the cycle are we now? Don't know, no answer. The autistic system can only continue to slide down the slope, asking itself, for example, if the last crisis continues, or if we are entering a new one without leaving the previous one.

It lasted approximately from 2012 to 2015, when developed countries began to emerge from the recession, with difficulty, and there has not been a real improvement rather only a slight recovery, which may be heralding an even more serious future crisis.

The year 2016 had hardly begun and the losses in different stock markets around the world care were already colossal: nearly 8 trillion US dollars during the first three weeks of January according to the calculations of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The different issues considered in the present work lead to at least five major conclusions, which we will explain below. The first conclusion has to do with the historical nature of the crisis and its depth.

2016 was supposed to be the year that the Federal Reserve "normalized" its policies. As much as two years ago -after years of a near-zero target rate- the Fed was swearing that it would begin to raise rates back to "normal" levels and cut its balance sheet. That never happened.

In recent years, central banks have managed to prevent markets from worrying about guessing the direction of their policies by giving them indications that have not been too dramatic or overly inaccurate.