Accuracy, citizenship and politics to play role in 2020 census in Massachusetts

Eli Sherman Wicked Local @Eli_Sherman

Monday

Jan 14, 2019 at 12:01 AMJan 15, 2019 at 11:44 AM

Here we go again.

The 2020 U.S. Census, a decennial headcount of every person living in the United States, is still a year away. But local, state and federal officials in January officially kicked off the process in Massachusetts.

“When people think of the 2020 census they think about just counting numbers, but we’ve been working on this now for three years,” said John Barr, census program manager at the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth. “It’s so important that the groundwork is done.”

The census first started in the 18th century and is required by the U.S. Constitution. It was originally designed to determine how many representatives each state would send to the U.S. House of Representatives. And while it still serves that purpose, the census has become far more complicated over the last two centuries.

Today it represents a wildly important, highly controversial and politically charged process, exacerbated most recently by a growing mistrust in government and its respect for privacy. The 2020 census is already embroiled in a legal debate over a citizenship question added by President Donald Trump's administration.

The question, which asks if respondents are U.S. citizens, has sparked pushback from immigrant communities and advocates, who are concerned the information could be used against marginalized communities in the future. A New York federal judge on Jan. 15 ruled against the question, calling it unlawful.

Jeff T. Behler, regional director of the U.S. Census Bureau based in New York, is adamant the information collected by the census is private and protected, saying he’s personally liable to serve up to five years in prison and to be fined up to $250,000 if the information is illegally released.

He wouldn’t comment on whether the citizenship question adds any value to the census, but Behler told Wicked Local that mistrust in government was already a challenge before the question was even introduced.

“Mistrust and distrust in government is one of the biggest things we have encountered,” Behler said. “In this environment, there’s a much more elevated distrust in government than what I’ve seen in the past.”

The mistrust could translate into lower participation in the census, especially among immigrant communities, which is concerning to local and state officials.

“Anything that discourages or causes fear in filling out the census only hurts all of us in the end,” said state Rep. Tackey Chan, D-Quincy, who attended a census kickoff event on Jan. 8.

The demographic, geographic and housing information collected through the survey is used to inform all types of decisions, including how the federal and state government should allocate hundreds of billions of dollars.

A 2017 study by the Census Bureau found 132 programs used census data to distribute more than $675 billion in funds during fiscal 2015.

In Massachusetts, federal funding directly affected by census data in fiscal 2019 includes $290 million for special-education grants, $244.4 million for Title 1 grants to local education agencies and $79 million for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, along with many other programs, according to the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center.

“The Census affects countless business and government decisions, including the distribution of significant amounts of federal funds to states and localities every year,” wrote Nancy Wagman, Kids Count director at MassBudget, in July. “These federal funds help educate our children, they address health and well-being and they help ensure Massachusetts’ children can grow up in well-resourced communities.”

With so much funding at stake, the burden of collecting accurate and complete information is on municipalities, incentivized by the fact that each person counted could go a long way toward a community receiving more or less money over the next 10 years.

In the past, residents would typically receive the census by mail, which they were expected to fill out and return. In 2020, however, the feds are hoping residents will take advantage of a new option that allows residents to fill out and submit the forms online.

If residents don’t respond online, documents will be sent by mail. If all else fails, census workers will visit unresponsive households in person.

In 2010, the last time the census was taken, a half-million temporary workers were hired by the Census Bureau to collect the outstanding information. Behler expects it will require 350,000 workers in 2020, and the hiring process has already begun.

The process may sound burdensome, but undercounting could cost municipalities in the long run.

“Being in the business of being the CEO and mayor of the city, dollars matter,” said Quincy Mayor Thomas P. Koch at the kickoff event. “The count has an impact on the state and federal grants we get.”

Beyond census participation, municipal leaders also look to population trends over the last decade to determine how a new count might change the status quo. According to the Donahue Institute at the University of Massachusetts, the number of people living in the Bay State grew 4.8 percent to 6.8 million between 2010 and 2017, representing the largest increase among Northeastern states.

But population growth hasn’t been equal across the state, as most new residents have flocked to the greater Boston area, along with MetroWest and north of Boston.

Between 2000 and 2017, the top 25 fastest-growing municipalities -- based on population growth as a percentage -- included Boxborough (28.1 percent), Hopkinton (20.8 percent), Littleton (13.3 percent), Cohasset (12.9 percent) and Watertown (12 percent).

At the same time, population has declined in other parts of the state, namely Western Massachusetts and Cape Cod, including Barnstable (2.3 percent), Yarmouth (1.9 percent), Sandwich (1.8 percent), Eastham (1.5 percent) and Falmouth (1.4 percent).

In addition to funding, the fluctuating population will force the establishment of new voting districts, opening the door for political parties to squabble over voting blocs. Redistricting has long been abused in the United States, as interested parties use the census every 10 years to manipulate boundaries of electoral constituencies to favor predetermined outcomes.

The manipulation is known as “gerrymandering,” a pejorative term named after Elbridge Gerry, who served as the fifth vice president of the United States and ninth governor of Massachusetts. Oddly construed voting districts in states across the country are evidence of its prevalence.

How much politics play into the process in Massachusetts, along with the government’s ability to accurately count a distrusting population, will ultimately be answered over the next few years, and municipal leaders are not blind to its significance.

“It’s a challenging task,” said Koch.

Eli Sherman is an investigative and in-depth reporter at Wicked Local and GateHouse Media. Email him at esherman@wickedlocal.com, or follow him on Twitter @Eli_Sherman.