Saudis told Obama not to humiliate Mubarak

Hugh TomlinsonRiyadh

Saudi Arabia has threatened to prop up President Mubarak if the
White House tries to force a swift change of regime in Egypt.

In a testy personal telephone call on January 29, King Abdullah told
President Obama not to humiliate Mr Mubarak and warned that he would
step in to bankroll Egypt if the US withdrew its aid programme, worth
$1.5 billion annually.

America’s closest ally in the Gulf made clear that the Egyptian
President must be allowed to stay on to oversee the transition towards
peaceful democracy and then leave with dignity.

“Mubarak and King Abdullah are not just allies, they are close
friends, and the King is not about to see his friend cast aside and
humiliated,” a senior source in the Saudi capital told The Times.

Two sources confirmed details of the King’s call, made four days
after the people of Egypt took to the streets. The revelation of Saudi
concerns sheds new light on America’s apparent diplomatic paralysis and
lays bare the biggest rift between the nations since the oil price
shock of 1973.

The tough line from Riyadh is driven by concern that Western
governments were too eager to shove aside Mr Mubarak when the uprising
began, without proper consideration of what should follow him.

“With Egypt in chaos, the kingdom is Washington’s only major ally
left in the Arab world and the Saudis want the Americans to remember
that,” said a source in Riyadh.

Egypt is the fourth-highest recipient of American aid after
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel, with most of the money going to the
Armed Forces. Slashing this was seen as a key weapon in Washington’s
armoury should it wish to force Mr Mubarak from office, but Riyadh’s
intervention seriously undermines America’s leverage.

The White House declined to comment yesterday, saying that the
Administration did not divulge what other leaders said to Mr Obama. The
King is in Morocco, recuperating from surgery on his back late last
year in New York. Behind the scenes, however, the octogenarian monarch
has been sticking his neck out for his longstanding friend in Cairo —
the pair are believed to be speaking daily.

Immediately after his phone call with Mr Obama, the King issued a
statement of support for Mr Mubarak, blaming “intruders” for meddling
in Egypt’s security “in the name of freedom of expression, exploiting
it to inject their destructive hatred”.

Riyadh is feeling increasingly hemmed in by Iran and its proxies
Hamas and Hezbollah. The expulsion of the Mubarak regime would not only
remove a key Saudi and American ally in the region but a major bulwark
against Iranian expansionism. “[The uprising] is a very dangerous
phenomenon. If we encourage it, anything could happen. Iran or al-Qaeda
might take advantage,” said a Saudi official.

The inconsistent messages from American politicians since the crisis
in Egypt began have also irritated the kingdom. “There is certainly
quite strong disagreement with the Americans on the messaging. They can
understand why Western countries have taken the positions they have,
but they are not convinced it’s been thought through. They see the
Americans as abandoning long-term allies,” said a Western analyst in
Riyadh.

Behind the scenes, the Saudi leadership has been urging Mr Mubarak
for some time to begin the process of reform and was dismayed that last
year’s parliamentary elections were so blatantly rigged. Many Saudi
citizens express private admiration for the courage of the protesters
in Tahrir Square.

In the interests of stability, however, the kingdom has insisted
that Washington should deal with Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian
Vice-President, and not undermine him. The signs are that Washington
has heeded the appeals for caution from Riyadh and elsewhere. The
Administration, which appeared ready last week to sever America’s
30-year alliance with Mr Mubarak, is now placing greater emphasis on
stability in its public statements, while keeping up pressure on Mr
Suleiman to push ahead with reforms.

The White House expressed frustration last night with the “lack of
steps” Cairo has taken to meet protesters’ demands. “It is clear that
what the Government has thus far put forward has yet to meet a minimum
threshold for the people of Egypt,” said Robert Gibbs, President
Obama’s spokesman.

Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, accused the US of
“imposing on a great country like Egypt”, and brushed aside American
calls for more freedom as “unhelpful”.

Arab ally

1902 The al-Saud family returns from exile and takes control
of Riyadh

1938 After oil is discovered, production begins under the
Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco)

1960 Saudi Arabia becomes a founding member of the
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec)

1973 War between Israel and its Arab neighbours leads Saudi
Arabia to organise an oil boycott that destabilises the American
economy

1980 Saudi Arabia seizes full control of Aramco

1990-91 Iraq invades Kuwait. The US is allowed to mount a
counterattack from the peninsula and troops remain in Saudi Arabia
afterwards

2001 Al-Qaeda terrorists, including 15 from Saudi Arabia,
carry out the 9/11 attacks

2003 The US announces its military withdrawal from Saudi
Arabia

2003-05 There are several suicide attacks on residential
compounds for Westerners