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London Forex Report: EUR Net Shorts Lowest Since May 2014

London Forex Report: EUR Net Shorts Lowest Since May 2014

London Forex Report: USD Data flow out of the US Friday remained largely positive even though personal income and personal spending increased at a slower pace. Core PCE climbed to 1.8% YoY in February, nudging closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target and marked its highest since July 2014. A final print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in slightly higher in March (96.9 vs 96.3) as Trump’s rhetorics continued to buoy equities and the broad economy. Separately, Chicago purchasing manager index climbed to 57.7 in March (February: 57.4) ticking up to its highest level in more than two years. The Dollar Index rallied in US afternoon to narrow accumulated losses but nonetheless closed 0.06% lower at 100.41, weighed down by firmer GBP, JPY and CAD. CFTC IMM data shows speculators cut net USD longs in latest week, EUR net shorts are the lowest since May 2014, 7.9k contracts.

EUR In March, Eurozone’s consumer inflation softened to 1.50% YoY after rising at its quickest pace in two years at 2.00% YoY in February. The softer reading signalled that it might be too soon to unwind the ECB’s stimulus program. Core inflation softened to 0.70% YoY in March (February: +0.90% YoY).

GBP Britain’s economy expanded at its quickest pace in a year in 4Q (0.70% QoQ vs 0.50% QoQ), according to the final report from the Office of National Statistics. Despite pullback in household spending (0.40% QoQ vs 0.50% QoQ), a weaker Sterling had revived exports growth in 4Q (+1.40% QoQ vs -0.70% QoQ). Ahead of Brexit’s negotiation, data was showing deceleration in economic momentum in the first quarter of 2017. An index tracking the services sector climbed 0.60% in the three months through January after growing 0.80% the three months through December. In addition, Gfk consumer confidence index remained in negative territory (March: -6 vs February: -6). .

JPY Japanese data released this morning was quite upbeat as economic indicators showed that sentiments in the manufacturing (1Q: 11 vs 4Q: 8) and non manufacturing (1Q: 16 vs 4Q: 16) sectors remained at optimistic level as global growth prospect brightens. Outlook somewhat offset a softer print of the manufacturing PMI which ticked down to 52.4 in March (February: 53.3), the lowest in three months.

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 1-3 Day View – The breach of 1.07 support resets a downside bias with 1.0570 symmetry swing support the immediate downside objective, near term resistance is sited at 1.0738, over 1.0860 opens 1.0969 equidistant swing objective.

Technical: 1-3 Day View – 1.2570 upside objective achieved potential for profit taking pullback to test support sited at 1.24 as this area supports expect a test of triangle resistance sited at 1.2640 only below 1.2370 concerns near term bullish bias.

1-3 Week View – While below 1.2864 bears set sites on 1.10 as the broader downside objective, a weekly closing breach of 1.2660 will set up a move to test the weekly bearish line in the sandRetail Sentiment: BearishTrading Take-away: Long

Technical: 1-3 Day View 111.75 range support breached the daily close below here suggests downside range break and opens 108.43 equidistant swing objective to the downside, near term resistance is sited at 112. A daily close over 112 stems near term selling pressure.

1-3 Week View – as 110 weekly symmetry swing support survives on a weekly closing basis bulls will look for a grind higher to retest 115, a close below 108 which represents an equidistant swing from the cycle, negates the broader bullish theme.Retail Sentiment: BullishTrading Take-away: Short

Technical: 1-3 Day View – Bears target a test of 118.22 as the next downside objective ahead of pivotal symmetry swing support sited at 117.69. Only over 120.50 arrests near term selling pressure.

1-3 Week View – As symmetry swing support sited at 117.69 survives on a closing basis bulls will continue to target weekly symmetry swing resistance sited at 124.42, a weekly close above here would set a broader base for further upside.Retail Sentiment: BullishTrading Take-away: Short

Patrick has been trading for the past ten years. After liquidating several accounts in his early days he stopped ‘gambling’ and applied himself as a student of risk. Self taught and more self aware thanks to Mr Market. Patrick applies simple technical strategies based around market price and time structure to identify high probability trade locations.

Daily Set Up: #EURAUD Trading The Channel https://t.co/u9Kwfc3r7K Update #EURAUD short from 1.5565; stop loss moved to breakeven