Reflexions on Basketball Statistics:
About the Minutes Played, the Foul Trouble & Fouling Out

How to make a statistical calculation of the player's missed playing time ascribable to fouls ?
Is there in the the eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System some data about the player utilization and substitution set of rules in the foul trouble case ? That means to say, when they are sent to the bench and after which foul number ?

To calculate missed playing time ascribable to fouls, we must base our analysis in the following assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:

In FIBA & NBA:
No change when a player commits his first foul.
Committing his second a player foul would be replaced and have to wait at the bench until the half of the second quarter.
A player committing his third foul would be replaced and would be a bench player until the third quarter.
With the critical (in FIBA) fourth foul committed a player would be replaced and have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
In NBA:
A player committing his fifth foul would have to be out of the game until the half of the fourth quarter.

Now, how often do players foul out of a game ? When the 4th. FIBA or 5th NBA foul happens ? Which percentage of the players with the 4th. FIBA or 5th NBA foul are fouled out ?

- 49% of the 4th. fouls FIBA or 5th. fouls NBA come with about 3 minutes left in the game: remember to consider, 40 minutes in FIBA and 48 in the NBA !
- 82% of all players who perpetrate a 4th. fouls FIBA or 5th. fouls NBA do not foul out.

This is reasonable from the moment the studies from eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis System demonstrates that even the most players having a tendency to foul lose only a few minutes per game because of their foul trouble. But they play the great majority of their minutes near the danger of fouling out.

...A well known game situation: 2 seconds to go, 2 points ahead and last free throw. The player intentionally misses the free-throw according with the indications from the bench to avoid a complete 2 seconds possession for the opponent. He succeed and they win the game. Can this action be registered in such way that we don't "punish" the shooter's Evaluation Metrics with a -1 because of the missed free
throw ?

eBA Basketball Statistical Tracking=
If you are performing the analysis by means of video, and you are not sure about those "bench indications". you have no alternative and must register the missed free-throw.

If you were present at this game, and you heard or saw clearly the coach's indications, you may use the "Team Player" option to register the missed throw, registering this action in the "play-by-play" report.

"... The 8 / 10 seconds time limit rule violation is a PERSONAL or TEAM turnover ? FORCED or
UNFORCED ?
By the way, all the basketball leagues have this rule ? Any difference ? ..."

eBA Basketball Statistics Tracking:
The 8/10 seconds backcourt violation is generally a TEAM TURNOVER, being FORCED or UNFORCED depending upon the opponent's action: if it is as result of an all or half court press defense (FORCED) or a defender's error (UNFORCED).

"... To whom are credited the points scored in the wrong basket ?
To any player ? To the opponent captain ? And what the stats rule ? Turnover ? ..."

Points scored in the wrong basket are never credited to a player, but are credited to the team in a footnote. Points awarded for basket interference or goaltending by the defense are credited to the shooter. When a live ball goes in the basket, the last player who touched the ball causes it to go there ( from the Instructions & Rules Coverage - Scoring 9. ).

Dennis Hans says in this article "Starting centers merit more minutes" that the modern center's constant struggle to avoid foul trouble has little to do with the modern game of basketball and proposes four common sense changes:

2) Quit treating intentional fouls as if they were non-intentional. ...

3) Give each team one “foul coupon.” ...

4) Make it a loss-of-possession violation (not a foul) for a low-post player to back, buttwhack or low-shoulder his way into the lane. ...

And I think that in order to recognize the importance of the tall men´s work we must reach the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System and read the chapter of the opponents errors forced by our tall men and the block shots which ends in our baskets on the other side of the court.

Tall men are not as spectacular as the guards, but remember my post with the 'Seven Feet Theory', which is supported by recognized NBA scouters: to win actually a championship you must have a 7 feet ( 2,13 m ) player in the middle of the paint area.

Teams with small players are more spectacular and quick, play funny basketball and may reach the top... but the winners are teams with tall men.

The general character and site of the shot attempt can be a manifestation of the stage of difficulty:

1) End-line plays present a bigger menace than sideline out of bounds;

2) In the main, inbounds plays have both inside and outside choices with a condition to keep from performing a 5 second violation;

3) As a whole the first precedence of the defense against end-line out of bounds plays is impeding an easy basket at the rim.

The basketball statistician must knows that The achievement of their objective by the offense or defense returning from a time out in closely contested end game situations are more significant than others - these are about entirely sideline plays

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Statistical lies are most frequently committed in graphical form, where the eyes can be more easily deceived by spurious trends suggested in a picture. A common abuse is manipulating scales on charts and graphs by truncating, censoring or transforming the axis values.

The next figure shows two different charts showing an increase in average attendance at NCAA Women's Soccer games between 1998 and 2003. The first (blue)chart is the default Microsoft Excel chart; many statistical software packages, in fact, will restrict both axes to a small set of values that contains the data, which helps the reader focus on chart differences more clearly. However, it also removes the scale of difference from the picture, which has potential to mislead readers who pay little attention to the axis labels.

The reader's sense of proportion can be manipulated further with image-based charts, which are standard in sports publications. As an example, the figure below graphs the season wins for the New England Patriots using clip-art in place of vertical bars.

Regular season wins for the New England Patriots, 2002-2003

While the height of the football icons corresponds to the information the graph is meant to communicate, the size of the footballs does not; the Patriots improved 56% in wins between 2002 and 2003, but the increase in area of the football icons is over 140%.

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