The five closest gubernatorial races

While Nov. 2 is likely to deliver big Republican gains at the statehouse level, more than one-third of the 37 governors’ races this year still remain single-digit contests, according to a review of October polling.

In two of the most important races—California and Texas—the storyline for the final sprint appears set. After flaps surrounding Meg Whitman’s housekeeper and former Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown campaign’s reference to Whitman as a “whore,” California appears to be trending towards Brown. In Texas, where polling indicates voters are still kicking the tires on Gov. Rick Perry’s quest for a third term, it nevertheless appears it will take a Texas-sized swing in momentum to stop the country’s longest-serving governor.

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In other corners of the country, the picture is less clear. With two weeks remaining, here’s POLITICO’s list of the five most competitive races for governor.

1. FLORIDA

Six months ago, Alex Sink’s gubernatorial prospects looked to be floundering. She had shed top staff, including her campaign manager and finance director ,and Attorney General Bill McCollum seemed to be laying the groundwork for an easier than expected path to victory to the governor’s mansion. Then, Florida’s swing state instincts kicked in and turned the race on its head.

The Gulf oil spill helped Sink build a populist profile, as she pushed for faster payments of claims, criticized the Obama administration’s recovery pace and pledged to hold BP accountable. A multimillionaire political outsider with considerable baggage won the GOP primary, presenting a true test to Republican unity. Public polling has been mixed, showing Republican Rick Scott and Sink each holding small leads well within the margin of error. Both campaigns’ internal numbers have their own candidate up – but just slightly.

“It’s seesawing and tight. Depending on the turnout model, either one could be up a couple,” said one operative familiar with the daily polling.

Sink, the state’s chief financial officer, is scooping up newspaper endorsements, while Scott is banking on GOP intensity and another robust early vote turnout to stave off late attacks on his record as a healthcare CEO. The national environment favors Scott, but it’s being offset by the outstanding questions surrounding his role in the Medicare fraud case that ensnared his company, Columbia/HCA.

“This election has turned into a referendum on the character of the two candidates and has put separation between itself and national trends,” surmised Democratic pollster Tom Eldon.