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Opinion Contributor

What do Egyptians want?

The author writes that his poll gives a picture of what Egyptians are looking for. | AP Photo

By SHIBLEY TELHAMI | 5/21/12 5:39 PM EDT

As Egyptians vote to select a president later this week, it is heartening that no one really knows how it will turn out — not even the pollsters. Egyptian public opinion has been fluid, seemingly changing daily. Since the whole process is new, no one has a model for voter turnout. But with a poll I conducted among a sample of 772 Egyptians May 4-10 with JZ Analytics, we have a better picture of what Egyptians are looking for.

Among the presidential candidates, moderate Islamist Abdel-Men’em Abul Fotouh lead the way with 32 percent’ followed by Amr Mousa with 28 percent (just outside of the margin of error of 3.6 percent); followed by former Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq with 14 percent. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi tied Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabahi for fourth place at 8 percent.

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The picture remains fluid, but there are some telling findings in the poll.

One major question is about the Muslim Brotherhood and their Freedom and Justice Party, Egypt’s best-organized political group. They had garnered a majority in the parliamentary elections, and seemed on track to substantially influence the shape of Egypt’s next constitution. Many were already predicting their dominance — including determining the next presidential candidate. If not one of their own, at least one they endorse. But that picture has changed.

To be sure, the Brotherhood is still a powerful force and will remain so for years to come. Though their candidate, Mohamed Morsi, is now far behind in the polls, he is likely to do better than predicted simply because of the machinery his party can use to turn out the vote. But the polls indicate that something has changed.

First, 71 percent of Egyptians polled say the Brotherhood made a mistake by fielding its own presidential candidate after pledging not to.

Second, Egyptians appear to use different criteria for selecting a president than in the parliamentary elections. Egyptians who voted in those elections say that the most important factors in determining their choices were political party (24 percent); followed by a candidate’s record and experience (21 percent), and a candidate’s position on the economy (19 percent).

But they rank these factors differently in selecting a president, with personal trust in the candidate being the most important (31 percent), followed by the economy (22 percent) and record and experience (19 percent).

Third, while the role of religion is important and is on many voters’ minds, it is listed as the most important issue of candidate selection by only 8 percent of respondents.

The importance of turnout is demonstrated by demographics: In rural areas, both Mousa and Morsi do better than the other candidates — so the turnout in these areas will be key.

Candidates’ support also varies across demographic categories. For example, Abul-Fotouh does best among youth (under 25) and Mousa does best among Christians. In early voting among Egyptians outside the country, there is also a trend, where secular candidates do better among Egyptians in Western countries and Islamist candidates perform better among the large numbers of Egyptians working in the Gulf Arab states — particularly Saudi Arabia.

Who ends up voting in larger numbers will undoubtedly have an impact on the outcome.

Readers' Comments (2)

From its treatment of its own native women to its treatment of western journalists during the revolution, Egypt should feel great shame and solemnly resolve to put its nation on a humane and democratic course.

Whose model should Egypt follow?

Turkey won't do, because it is trending away from the humane. Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists won't do because they were already standing proudly in the inhumane.

Egypt suffers from the same type of vague Utopianism as old Russia, with a dash of Islamist fatalism and authoritarian bitters added to the mix. The polls don't give us good reason to think otherwise.