Thursday, September 24, 2009

The market continued lower today then traded sideways for the remainder of trading. Either [2] or [iii] of C of (Y) of [2] topped at 1080.15; I favor the former. If the latter is correct, wave (c) of [iv] is completing a flat as discussed in earlier posts. Note that crossing 1039.47 invalidates this count.

In my estimation, some sort of iv wave has completed or is nearing completion. A sideways correction is typical for 4th waves. Based on this and and some other indicators (e.g. the nice channel yesterday, the sharpness of declining waves following it), we arrive at the above count and alternatives.

If this count is correct, wave i is slightly longer than iii. This does not break any rules, but it does put a limit on v. So I would expect somewhat lower prices tomorrow (below 1045), then a bounce and setup for a "3rd of a 3rd" wave late Friday for a gap down Monday morning. This view can change in a moment, but this is what appears most likely using the most likely count.

The market continued lower today then traded sideways for the remainder of trading. Either [2] or [iii] of C of (Y) of [2] topped at 1080.15; I favor the former. If the latter is correct, wave (c) of [iv] is completing a flat as discussed in earlier posts. Note that crossing 1039.47 invalidates this count.

In my estimation, some sort of iv wave has completed or is nearing completion. A sideways correction is typical for 4th waves. Based on this and and some other indicators (e.g. the nice channel yesterday, the sharpness of declining waves following it), we arrive at the above count and alternatives.

If this count is correct, wave i is slightly longer than iii. This does not break any rules, but it does put a limit on v. So I would expect somewhat lower prices tomorrow (below 1045), then a bounce and setup for a "3rd of a 3rd" wave late Friday for a gap down Monday morning. This view can change in a moment, but this is what appears most likely using the most likely count.

My trading philosophy is 95% based on my own Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500. I try to keep my analysis and trading as simple as possible and do not use trend lines, channels, or definite retracement, price, or time targets. To me, inspecting the proportionality and symmetry of a market's price structure is the key to mastering the principle; it is through this that low-risk, high-reward trading opportunities are found.

Because they are the only things I look at when trading, the quality of the charts I post on this blog are very important to me. I think you will find my work to be the best Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500 on the internet.