Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Apple produced the Mac Mini as a low cost Mac to appeal to those who want Mac but do not want to pay a lot for it.It was supposed to be for the Mac Pro, what iPod Mini was for the iPod Clasic.

It didn't work because the most obvious strenght of the Mac Mini was not on the shortlist of any person buying a computer for $600.

Mac Mini, was not just smaller than your average computer box. It was 1/10 the size of those boxes. This made it ideal for a media hub device. A computer without c mo itor, which is always on and users can stream content from it from anywhere in the world.

It was also ideal for a remote printing machine and for remote disk access as used by the Macbook Air.

In that role it's entire graphical user interface was unnesessary. In fact it's processor was and overkill and Apple upated it once just so it can reduce the price of the same component across it's other products.

Mac Mini can be effectively used in the role of the Time capsule but it offers much lower capabilities as much higher price.

It is time for Apple to design a product solely optimistd for the purpose of being a data hub. Not only will it back up data like the Time Capsule but also stream music, moviesnand pictures.

There is anoter product that does some of that allready. It's called Apple TV. It has also been underperforming despite huge marketing efforts and software updates

Apple may conveniantely combine all these 3 hubs of data into one product that will have the following

- Up to 1TB of space for wireless back up or file it can stream- 802.11n Airport Extreme Base station- Apple TV- Integrated Blue Ray drive that can read and write CDs, DVDs and Blue Ray Discs- Wireless Printing and Software instalation and disc Burning

Such device will not need to Run Mac OSUnless it also has a the Multi touch display of the iPhone for some user interaction but it could be just as easily controled with an iPod Touch, which could be sold along with it at a discount

Apple couldI troduce some inocative app for the iPhone to control this media monster.

It will be an all aluminum design with the Apple Logo on top. I hope it light ip like the ones on the Macbooks

This could well be the rumored device going by the codename of Brick that we may see on October 14th

So is the iHUB comming? I hope so for it will be the fulfilment of what Steve Jobs has been talking about since Macworld 2000.

Monday, September 29, 2008

I would agree with Apple that a subsidezed iPhone coupled with a great service providesa better end user experiece.However, Apple cannot deliver that everywhere and as a consequence a lot of people in a lot of countries are getting their iPhones trough a tough process. They pay a lot of money to resselers and go trough a hours long hacking process to setup their iPhone for use in their own country.

Wouldn't it make sence if you could get a fully setup and unlocked iPhone from Apple at those same prices. Apple will get more cash in markets where it hasn't a partner and the end users will get a chance to legitemaly use their iPhones.

Fortunately, there may be a light in the tunnell.Apple has started selling completely unlocked iPhone3Gs in Honk Kong for $695 for the 8GB model. Those same models sell for as low as $821 on the black market in my country and availability is virtually zero. You have to pay as much as $900 to get one within a few days.

I understand the barrier of as much as 20% import tax for countries like Bulgaria. So we will never get it at those Hong Kong prices but we would be able to at least walk in a store and buy one whatever the price.

I do not think there is any other product in the world that so many people want but cannot get to simply cause it is not on sale where they live. Apple has a unique oportunity to sell a lot of devices to people willing to pay but do not have the resources to go trough all the importing/hacking procedure. Apple should just make it it's top priority to cell unlocked devices anywhere it sells iPods and Macintoshes. It's that simple.

I hope Steve Jobs realized that people are willing to go trough a lot of trouble to get an iPhone without the visual voice mail and all those fancy services AT&T offers.

There is also the cultural phonamena. In America, when you have a problem with your device, you call your network provicer. In Bulgaria you call a friend that understands these things. People here are not so surprised when something does't work.

The main point is that the iPhone competitors are gearing up for launch of their unlocked iPhobe killers and Apple is on it's way to miss the opprtunity to gain a market share when it has no competition.

I am so pround to being a live witness to one of the most historic elections in American history.There has never been a better time to hope than now. There has never been so much potential for the worlds best dreams to come true. But enough on that.

After John McCain pulled out his last populist trick out of the bag and got the race even, it didn't take long for Obama campain to get people'head strait again.

There are several fronts in the presidential election battle:- ads- speeches- debates- fundrasings- organizations

The Obama campain has recently gained a substantial edge in the Number of ads it produces over the McCain camp. This is mostly as a result of the more issues that Obama can attack McCain for. However it is also due to the larger fundrasing record the Obama campaign has.The McCain ads on the other hand has recently come under an attack by the press for doubth in their truthfullness

Not only does Senator Obama attrack more people to his speaches but he also makes the them a lot more frequently, talks a lot longer and presents a more consistent message. His youth and inteligence helps him deliver more and better quality speeches.

But if that was not enough, the contrast between the public performance between Joe Biden and Saragh Palin is even more alpaling. Joe just keeps hammering McCain from the insiders perspective, while Palin hardly appears and when she does, has to play defensively.

Accrually Barack's wife Michelle and Joe' wife Jill togarher give almost as much presence as John McCain.

All in All it's a 4 member family of young people against one old man and his hiding running mate.

The first dabate demonstrated that Barack can top McCain on his home garden. Hi is likely to do even better on the other debates and will Joe Biden. Sarah Palin has a very remote chance or Draw with Biden on foreign policy.

As mentioned earlier, Barack Obama fundrasimg is roping senator McCains one. Not only that, but he keeps setting new records every month. Barack can also talk about his fundrasing approach, while McCain cannot. This results in a ever inscreasing gap.

Lastly are the grass roots organisation of the two. McCain, has a non existant one, while Obama has thousand of volunteers and more come every day.

All in All, McCain has spent all tricks up his sleeve and now starts to lose his voter base, while Obama not only gets higher in the pols by the day but also is regisering thousands more in every state every single day.

In 3 weeks time, Obama has piled up and 8 point advantage. There are 6 more to go and I fully expect that number will pass the ten point list.

The Obama McCaina is engaging and outperforming the McCain camp on every issue that there is in the playbook.They are setting the foundation of a Breaking victory in November. One that few would have predicted.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Ever since the original iPhone came out, rounors have been floating around that Apple will one day make a entry level iPhone in the same way it did with it's iPod line. It did make some sence especially if you have considered the opiginal price of the iPhone - $599.

However there are some factors which point that Apple may never unveil such a device but will instead stick with only one model.

Why do people expect for Apple to diversify its iPhone line? What was the driving force behind the iPhone Mini and the iPhone Nano?PRICE.The price of the product is the primary guide for establishing whether a product is low end <$100, mid range <$200, high end <$400 or Pro level <$800

The iPhone began as a Pro level device but Apple is now distributing it at virtually any entry level. From $0 to $800

Most people will immediately point out that this is due to the high priced data service plans that more than make up for the initial discount.What these people fail to notice is that services without contract are even more expensive. The iPhone is a device with a very long life and signing up for a plan for two years is not so bad when you see how trough software updates, your phone will be a lot more capable devoce with time.

Back to the question of the iPhone Nano.The iPhone as it is at the moment is a result of years if research and development into the perfect form factor. Scaling it down in size will immediately impact it's capabilities. The first casualty of making the screen smaller will be the on screen keyboard. This is an essential element for most productivity applications.

Steve Jobs defined the iPhone as 3 separate devices combines into 1. Revolutionary mobile phone, widescreen iPod with touch controls and breaktrough Internet comunications device. While scaling down the size may not impact the iPod and the Phone aspect of the device, it will surely hurt the usability of the Internet.

But making an entry level iPhone does not nessesary mean smaller device. The magic behind the iPhone has always been the software. Apple can therefore lower the aquasition cost of the final product by lowering manufacturing costs and exploring different distribution models as it is doing now. Last year poeple made it clear that they would buy an iPhone Nano if it is priced in the iPod Nano range. Apple delivered a better product than the iPhone at the price level of the iPod Nano. If only all carriers from around the world adapt the same prices as AT&T.

Apple is going very strongly about consolidating it's devices, not diversifying them. The second generation iPhone and IPod Touch have a lot more in common both in hardware and on the software side.Apple is puting a tremendous effort in making it's products better and more affordable at the same time. This will result in sales and widespread adoption few have expected. Who would not want a premium product at midrange prices.

There will never be an iPhone Nano. There will be however and full features iPhone at the price of the iPhone Nano.

It is very likely that the price of the iPhone platform around the world will continue to drop while it software capabilities continue to grow

Starting from next year. Apple will be incorporating custom made chips into it's devices. Made by PA Semi these chips will provide unique capabilities at low cost and no warning to it's competitors

Apple may even decide to lower its hardware sale margins due to the huge profits it gets from the App store, this making the iPhone/iPod Touch even more affordable.

Other companies have build their bussines aroud selling different types of devices. Ones sold, however there is little more profit to be expected from them.

Each iPhone not only provides higher initial margins but bring aditional money to Apple from sales of software trough the App store and music trough the iTunes store.

There are so many more ways for Apple to increase sales using just one design. Opening some APIs to developers will allow cutom camera cimponentsnand phisical keyboards among other things to be attached to the device via superthin shell cases.

Not only do Apple benefits for having to finetune only two hardware design and one software pla

All in all a widespread affordable common design allows for much more capabilities and sales in the long run than a plenora of devices with different form factors

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Is great that the iPhone will get a push notification service but that does not solve another major benefit of having a background running apps. And that is allowing some services like Whrrl to know your location all the time.

There is a way for Apple for provide this with little loss to battery life if it is made to work as smart as the push notification service.

The iPhone should be able to send its location to a cloud database in a smart way only when needed and only when users have a potential application that requires that service.

When users have a certain application installed that benefits from accurate location of the user even if he is not online, that service should be able to subscribe to a "location feed" coming from the iPhone to that cloud. Such feed will be closely tied to the accelerometer readings. Apple can make a research by recording the types of accelerometer data the iPhone produces, when carried in the pockets, in the car and so on. Based on that info iPhone will know if it is standing still, moving at walking speed or at a car speed. Consequently any updates to the iPhone location will only be made according to the area of certainty the user wants other people to know about them.

Say the user sets that area to 1 mile radius.

So if he stands still, no updates will be made after the initial on. If he moves at waling speed, updated will be made every 20min and if he moves with a car speed, updates can be made every 2 minutes as there is a charger at the car. So the iPhone can update this cloud database of its location smartly and other services can retrieve it from there.

If that user wants to know is other people he knows are around him, he can subscribe to the push notification feed of that service. And if he receives a push notification message he is interested in, he can only then launch the location based application and update his location more accurately

This will provide the best of both worlds: functionality and battery life.

There are also so many other sources of information besides the accelerometer that can tell the device if it is power-wise to update the location now. Cell tower signal strength and number, presence of a wifi hotspots can tell if the device is in a tunnel and GPS reception is week and lots of power will be lost to send any updates. Similarly, updates can also be send when the device passes near a cell tower or a wifi hotspot, so that minimal power is used. The important thing is to rely heavily on passive sensor fusion and learn about the surrounding environment with minimal power loss. A concept Apple can borrow from the F-22 Raptor Electronic Stealth.

Users will find that their device retains the most important part of the functionality of their location based apps without having to run them.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Well Everybody seems to be introducing a Netbook with a Atom processor these days. Everybody but Apple.

The closest thing Apple has is the Macbook Air. it is essentially a high performance Netbook with Niger screen memory and battery life.

Unfortunately the price is also bigger. A lot bigger. About 400% bigger.

In other words you can buy up to 4 netbooks for the price of even the most basic Macbook Air.

The Netbooks are so cheep, they even cost less than the HDD to SSD upgrade option for the Macbook Air

So what is Apple player in this Market.Just looking at the prices, the closest thing Apple has is the iPod Touch. Granted, Apple will introduce a new model shortly but it's Internet experience is totaly different.

The next closest thing is the Macbook at $1100. But that is a full features notebook and is also due for a refresh.

There are two possibilities for Apple to compete with the $300-$500 Netbooks.

The First is to introduce the long anticipated MacTable. I hope that happened but it's all rumours at this point.

The next best thing for Apple is to offer similar features to the netbooks in a existing product.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

iPhone SalesIn 2007 Apple sold 250,000 iPhone's in the opening weekend on June 29th This year Apple sold 1 million iPhone 3G's in the opening weekend on July 11th. That's a 400% increase.

Will apple keep this momentum? Will it slow down or will it go up?

The first thing to note is that up untill The second half of August 08, Apple had trouble supplying anough iPhone. That was not the case last year. Sales were however boosted afterwards by the launch in 20 more countries compared to only one at this time last year.

On September 10, 2007 Apple anounced it had sold 1 million iPhone's in the first 74 days.

This year, Apple has a an event in September 9th. That's 60 days after launch. One week short of the event, allready rumours circulate for some 6 million iPhone 3G's sold by Apple. Had this anoincement been another 15 days out, it is reasonable to assume that Apple would have sold 8 million iPhone 3Gs in the same 74 days since last year.Now that's 700% increase.

Is there a chance Apple can continually sustain that grouth?Five days before it's 1 millionth sold iPhone anouncement last year, Apple cut the price of the iPhone by $200. This definately boosted sales in the next quarter.

This year Apple has some 26 more countries that still have to begin to sell the iPhone. Moreever, Russia and China have yet to join as well, two very large markets. This along with the new 2.1 software will also help Apple continue to boost sales. Right Now Apple has been selling around 750,000 iPhone 3Gs per week on average. It's production capacity is estimated to be at around 800,000 and if another 26 countries join the rollout I suspect we will be seeing iPhone shortages again.

The next first gen iPhone sales anouncemnt was on January 15 at Macworld. By this time, 200 days after the launch Apple had sold 4,000,000 iPhone's.

If Apple had sold 6 million iPhone 3Gs allready and continues to sell them at 800k units per week, Apple will be on track to sell 22,8 million iPhone 3Gs by the next Macworld in mid January.

That's 570% increase.

So by the end of the product life, Apple may as well sell 5 times as many iPhone from the second model compared to the first.

What was the point in all this. Well, I had an article a few months back predicting iPhone sales. While I did not expect for apple to run out of Iphones, I did expect 23million iPhones sold in 2008. It seams Apple is well on track to meet my expectations.

Monday, September 1, 2008

iPod Touch 2nd GenIt's almost September and it's almost time for this year iPod refresh.

While the iPod Nano may see the most significant overhaul, I suspect iPod Touch to pack a few surprices of it's own.

There is a growing division in the Apps in the Apps Store. First there are the apps specific to the iPhone, now there are the apps specific to the iPhone 3G.The iPod touch apps are increasingly cornered. After 2.1 come out that will be increasingly so, at it promises to add not only push notification service but more GPS support as well.

The iPod Touch does not have a GPS, nor does the iPhone 2G. However increasingly more apps will rely on this technology to even work. No matter how cleaver and indegineus the Skyhook service is, it's was just a stop gap and at best a compliment to a real GPS in the form of Assisted GPS.

There is no doubt in my mind that the new iPod touch will get the same GPS chip as the iPhone 3G. The cost of implementation is low and the benefits high. This will bring a lot more commonality between the two platforms: iPhone and iPod Touch.

The design need not be changed much. The iPod Touch back is now iodized alluminium and is not the best cover for another anthems. But it doesn't need to be. The GPS chip can be placed near the top cover, since most satelites are on top, not to the side.

The new iPod touch needs a lower price and Apple can get as many parts as common between it and the iPhone 3G.

The only other cmagor change for the Touch may be the introduction of more colours, but I do not consider that a priority, since so many people use colour cases anyway to protect the screen and the back from scraches.

I do also hope that apple put the same minijack from the iPhone so the iPod Touch can do WiFI calls ( think Skype) via the same stereo handsfree. That will be very cool and another minor update with a major impact on functionality.If this happened, I do not see how appleCannot do it's own iChat Mobile Phone.

I personaly expect every major app on Leopard to make it into iPhone Format one way or another.

Another thing I expect for the new iPod Touch is a camera. Maybe the same one from the iPhone. Why not? It's price will be now almost nothing.

I am just wandering why cannot Apple make an iPod touch from the iPhone 3G.Just remove the GSM and the 3G chips plus bluetooth and the speekers, and the mic. It can also use the same plastic cover minus the processes making holes for the sim and speaker-mic. This way, anyone will get a feel for an iPhone without the contract and crazy prices in some countries.

I doubt that happening, but the iPod Touch cried for more compatibility in tersm of hardware with the iPhone not only to keep the price low but also to keep the maximum app compatibility.

In short, here is what I hope to see in the iPod Touch:1. hardware. - GPS - Minijack - Camera