Fans Should Temper Their Expectations for Montero

This year's edition of the Bill James Handbook projects that Montero, 21, will run up a slugging percentage of .519 in 2011. That's a better forecast than it gives Adam Dunn, who has hit at least 38 home runs every year since 2004. Baseballthinkfactory.org's ZiPS system predicts .503. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system seems almost conservative when it projects a mere .462.

That last figure, though, would be the second-highest slugging average in major league history for a 21-year-old catcher with at least 400 plate appearances. It's possible that Montero, who has slugged .511 in 380 minor league games, is simply that good. But it doesn't seem likely.

For any catcher at all to hit for that much power, let alone one as young as Montero, is extremely rare. Since 1901, a total of 40 catchers have ever slugged at least .500 in a season where they qualified for the batting title. Forty-six players, for a point of comparison, have hit at least .370. It's rare enough that a young player can handle the physical and mental rigors of playing catcher. For one barely of drinking age to do so while rating among the best sluggers in the game would be, literally, unprecedented.

None of this is to say that the programs are wrong. All they know is that Montero has been a brilliant hitter for his entire professional career, and that a 20-year-old who slugs .517 in AAA ball is likely ready to kill the ball in the majors. Baseball is a game with a long history, though, and anyone ginning up an expectation that a player will do something that has never been done before is quite likely to be disappointed.

—Tim Marchman

Baby Backstops

The 21-year-old catchers since 1901 with the top single-season slugging percentage*

Player

Year

PA

SLG

1

Johnny Bench, Reds

1969

592

.487

2

Darrell Porter, Brewers

1973

416

.457

3

Ted Simmons, Cardinals

1971

563

.424

4

Al Lopez, Robins

1930

466

.418

5

Ivan Rodriguez, Rangers

1993

519

.412

6

Frankie Hayes, Athletics

1936

555

.388

7

Frank Snyder, Cardinals

1915

522

.387

Source: Baseball-Reference *min. 400 plate appearances; played 50% of games at catcher

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