TY - THES
A1 - Schäffer, Bastian
T1 - The oil price as the global economic factor and its implications on the worldwide economy
N2 - This thesis has the purpose to investigate the oil price as the global economic factor but also to examine its implications on the worldwide economy. Thereby the determinants of the oil price are investigated by tackling the oil price itself from three different perspectives – the supply and demand framework, the prevailing world oil market structure as well as from the perspective of already statistically proven oil price determinants. In addition, the arising macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations on oil-importing and oil-exporting countries are examined. The investigation based on a thought experiment demonstrates the supply and demand framework to be unable to fully explain all past price changes. The examination on the prevailing market structure identifies the world oil market to be best described as a supply, pure, closed, partial and collusive form of an oligopoly. Analyzing the competitive behavior of the world oil market on three levels identifies non-OPEC producers’ competition to behave in a Cournot manner whereas among OPEC producers Saudi Arabia is identified to be a Stackelberg-follower with certain conditions while at the same time permanently bearing the ambition to become the Stackelberg-leader. The identification on the best describing oligopoly model for the overall industry is inconclusive. Investigating OPEC’s cartel hypothesis does not fully exclude its collusive behavior but denies the OPEC to be described as a prime example of a cartel. The examination of already existing econometric analyses identified a total of 13 determinants to play a key role in the oil price definition process. Investigating the arising macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations show oil price changes to be of great importance for the overall economic performance and is best described as a form of a positive of negative vicious circle in which the interconnected second or even third round effects intensify the implications on the macroeconomic activity.
KW - Cartel behavior
KW - Oligopoly models
KW - OPEC
KW - Macroeconomic implications
KW - Oil price
Y1 - 2017
ER -