Rob generously gave me permission to cut-&-paste his entire blog, with the caveat I clarify he did not mean to demean the Arab people as a race or a genetically inferior people. It's their culture that stinks, not them. He wants to make it clear he is not a racist. OK, so noted. And Rob, we already knew that. Among conservatives, one is permitted to talk about such things without apologizing in advance or kowtowing to PC shrines. Being conservative means never having to say you're sorry ;-) Here's the beef:

Duffy and I were involved in an email exchange this morning stemming from reports that the logjam in forming a new Iraqi government might finally be breaking. My response was less than enthusiastic. The Shiite religious party won the election. Whoever they pick is going to be a problem.

Duffy writes back as follows:

How many times have you heard me say that this was not going to be pretty, that mistakes have and will be made, that post- war

Germany

and

Japan

experienced similar difficulties as those now being experienced in

Iraq

? It took our own country 11 years and 200+ years(and much blood both then and later) to establish and then maintain our own form of government. There is no harder form of governance than democracy and no greater alternative. This will not happen overnight, and today's news certainly does not mean the end result is near.

But truly it is you that is in denial, denial that there can be any progress, any hope, any ultimate belief in the innate and personal human tendency to prefer freedom over tyranny that, as history has shown, will ultimately prevail, with our support, in

Iraq

and throughout the world. I fear that you are so blinded by your disdain, to put it lightly, of Bush that you will denigrate any progress, any positive development, any evidence of political formation.

To me it's a shame that someone with as strong an intellect as you, someone who could offer so much in the way of constructive debate and thought, would be so uncompromising in your thinking, imho, because to do so would give an inch of credibility to Bush and his Doctrine. I only have to look as far as your recent Rumsfeld post to see how low the discussion has devolved.

Thankfully, in spite of great and vociferous opposition and at great cost, Bush has wisely begun us on this path of change, a path that may take one hundred years to reach its ultimate form, but it is the only path worth pursuing given the threats we face. Let's not forget that the fight against Radicalism extends well beyond what is going on in

Iraq

, and it is in

Iraq

where the primary battle is manifesting itself. And so much the better that it is happening there, in the den of radicalism, than over here, in NYC or

Seattle

or Philly. That's my interpretation of reality. Concerned, yes, but unclouded by hate.

My reply, which was going to be the main point of this post, is as follows:

Once again, you assume that because I recognize the futility of our situation in

Iraq

, I must be in favor of that futility. That’s like saying that because I tried to stop you from jumping out the window, I must not really believe you can fly.

The reason we have democracy in the West is because our culture, when it’s working properly, teaches us these assumptions:

You can get ahead if you try hard and have talent

People who judge you on criteria other than merit are unjust. Prejudice is a vice, not a virtue

Our laws and customs are fundamentally fair and just, so I should accept outcomes even if they don’t always fit my beliefs

The majority will insist on fair execution of the laws and expose and punish corruption

Even if I am in the minority, laws protect me from unjust persecution

Those who believe differently from me deserve respect, even if I don’t agree with them

Violence is a last resort – it signifies the failure of civilization and social institutions

Strangers can come together and do things in their common interest without being coerced

Etc.

Here, by contrast, is a short list of the beliefs and assumptions that are drummed in to the minds of most people over there, through the religion, their culture, their historical experience, the teachings of their family, the experiences they see all around them, their media, their literature and all the examples they are taught to respect:

The social system is rigged to benefit the powerful. There is no way to advance socially or economically without entering into a corrupt arrangement with the powerful or mounting a violent challenge to power

Those with power will treat their opponents without mercy. Therefore, when you get power, it is both justified and necessary to treat your opponents with no mercy

Those with power will never give it up without a fight, because they understand what will happen to them; anyone who gives up power voluntarily is a fool who deserves what he gets

When power changes hands without an obvious fight or government acts in what appears to be the public interest, it must be the result of a corrupt bargain or a conspiracy and some hidden interest must be benefiting

The people I trust are, as follows, in order:

1.Immediate family

2.Extended family

3.Guests/hosts under the code of hospitality

4.Clan/tribal group

5.Other Arabs of same flavor of Islam

6.Non-Arabs of same flavor of Islam

7.Non-threatening non-believers

8.Threatening or proselytizing non-believers

9.Islamic “heretics”

If I am especially liberal-minded, I will get down to 5 on this list before becoming violently suspicious.

Acts of trust and selflessness between people who have no formal connection with one another are deception or hypocrisy.

Human laws have no legitimacy beyond the ability of those in power to enforce them. If it is within your power to defy or ignore the laws, then you should do so, because laws only apply to the weak.

Women have nothing to say in public affairs. Societies that allow their own women to participate as equals are weak, foolish and offensive to God. Societies who encourage our women to participate socially, economically or politically are diabolical and must be opposed.

Those who believe differently than me offend God and have relinquished their rights to be treated with dignity. There is only reward, and no penalty, for punishing heretics

My self-interested interpretation of my faith, or the interpretation given to me by religious authorities in whom I unconditionally trust, justifies anything I choose to do

I will be lavishly rewarded in heaven for acts that are unjustifiable by normal human morality

Efforts to convince me to the contrary on any of these subjects are the work of the devil. If you are more powerful than me, I will pretend to pay attention, but you cannot expect me to take your ideas seriously once you have lost the ability to compel me to obey.

If you think you can find your way to a functioning democracy from there, good luck. And good luck growing those wings before you hit the ground.

Rob has succeeded in doing what I originally set out to do in part, that is, he has created a space with as good a dialog between Left & Right as you can find. I don't know Duffy except through some of his comments on Rob's blog, but I tend to agree with him. What both these guys tend to ignore is the catastrophic consequences of failure to the Arab and Persian peoples. Their culture is literally stuck in the dark ages, and if they''re not reformed/subverted (take your pick) then an awful lot of them are going to get killed, along with the residents of Tel Aviv and New York. What Rob says here is mostly true, but not sufficient. It's a good list of explanations of why the job has been and will be so hard, but not proof that it can't be done. I don't understand why Rob and his ilk miss that point, not really -- I suspect a lot of it is just partisan politics. No doubt Rob would vehemently, eloquently, and esoterically disagree with me (complete with links).

I'd also like to point out that those who say democracy can't be established at gun point have it exactly wrong -- democracy is always established at gun point. There is usually a plurality that either doesn't care or wants the current regime to remain. The tyrants must be driven out or killed or beaten down until they give up; they don't go away willingly. The Soviet Union is the exception that proves the rule (although some think that jury is still out). Others say 80 years is too long to wait for liberty.

Duffy and I were involved in an email exchange this morning stemming from reports that the logjam in forming a new Iraqi government might finally be breaking. My response was less than enthusiastic. The Shiite religious party won the election. Whoever they pick is going to be a problem.

Duffy writes back as follows:

How many times have you heard me say that this was not going to be pretty, that mistakes have and will be made, that post- war

Germany

and

Japan

experienced similar difficulties as those now being experienced in

Iraq

? It took our own country 11 years and 200+ years(and much blood both then and later) to establish and then maintain our own form of government. There is no harder form of governance than democracy and no greater alternative. This will not happen overnight, and today's news certainly does not mean the end result is near.

But truly it is you that is in denial, denial that there can be any progress, any hope, any ultimate belief in the innate and personal human tendency to prefer freedom over tyranny that, as history has shown, will ultimately prevail, with our support, in

Iraq

and throughout the world. I fear that you are so blinded by your disdain, to put it lightly, of Bush that you will denigrate any progress, any positive development, any evidence of political formation.

To me it's a shame that someone with as strong an intellect as you, someone who could offer so much in the way of constructive debate and thought, would be so uncompromising in your thinking, imho, because to do so would give an inch of credibility to Bush and his Doctrine. I only have to look as far as your recent Rumsfeld post to see how low the discussion has devolved.

Thankfully, in spite of great and vociferous opposition and at great cost, Bush has wisely begun us on this path of change, a path that may take one hundred years to reach its ultimate form, but it is the only path worth pursuing given the threats we face. Let's not forget that the fight against Radicalism extends well beyond what is going on in

Iraq

, and it is in

Iraq

where the primary battle is manifesting itself. And so much the better that it is happening there, in the den of radicalism, than over here, in NYC or

Seattle

or Philly. That's my interpretation of reality. Concerned, yes, but unclouded by hate.

My reply, which was going to be the main point of this post, is as follows:

Once again, you assume that because I recognize the futility of our situation in

Iraq

, I must be in favor of that futility. That’s like saying that because I tried to stop you from jumping out the window, I must not really believe you can fly.

The reason we have democracy in the West is because our culture, when it’s working properly, teaches us these assumptions:

You can get ahead if you try hard and have talent

People who judge you on criteria other than merit are unjust. Prejudice is a vice, not a virtue

Our laws and customs are fundamentally fair and just, so I should accept outcomes even if they don’t always fit my beliefs

The majority will insist on fair execution of the laws and expose and punish corruption

Even if I am in the minority, laws protect me from unjust persecution

Those who believe differently from me deserve respect, even if I don’t agree with them

Violence is a last resort – it signifies the failure of civilization and social institutions

Strangers can come together and do things in their common interest without being coerced

Etc.

Here, by contrast, is a short list of the beliefs and assumptions that are drummed in to the minds of most people over there, through the religion, their culture, their historical experience, the teachings of their family, the experiences they see all around them, their media, their literature and all the examples they are taught to respect:

The social system is rigged to benefit the powerful. There is no way to advance socially or economically without entering into a corrupt arrangement with the powerful or mounting a violent challenge to power

Those with power will treat their opponents without mercy. Therefore, when you get power, it is both justified and necessary to treat your opponents with no mercy

Those with power will never give it up without a fight, because they understand what will happen to them; anyone who gives up power voluntarily is a fool who deserves what he gets

When power changes hands without an obvious fight or government acts in what appears to be the public interest, it must be the result of a corrupt bargain or a conspiracy and some hidden interest must be benefiting

The people I trust are, as follows, in order:

1.Immediate family

2.Extended family

3.Guests/hosts under the code of hospitality

4.Clan/tribal group

5.Other Arabs of same flavor of Islam

6.Non-Arabs of same flavor of Islam

7.Non-threatening non-believers

8.Threatening or proselytizing non-believers

9.Islamic “heretics”

If I am especially liberal-minded, I will get down to 5 on this list before becoming violently suspicious.

Acts of trust and selflessness between people who have no formal connection with one another are deception or hypocrisy.

Human laws have no legitimacy beyond the ability of those in power to enforce them. If it is within your power to defy or ignore the laws, then you should do so, because laws only apply to the weak.

Women have nothing to say in public affairs. Societies that allow their own women to participate as equals are weak, foolish and offensive to God. Societies who encourage our women to participate socially, economically or politically are diabolical and must be opposed.

Those who believe differently than me offend God and have relinquished their rights to be treated with dignity. There is only reward, and no penalty, for punishing heretics

My self-interested interpretation of my faith, or the interpretation given to me by religious authorities in whom I unconditionally trust, justifies anything I choose to do

I will be lavishly rewarded in heaven for acts that are unjustifiable by normal human morality

Efforts to convince me to the contrary on any of these subjects are the work of the devil. If you are more powerful than me, I will pretend to pay attention, but you cannot expect me to take your ideas seriously once you have lost the ability to compel me to obey.

If you think you can find your way to a functioning democracy from there, good luck. And good luck growing those wings before you hit the ground.

Rob has succeeded in doing what I originally set out to do in part, that is, he has created a space with as good a dialog between Left & Right as you can find. I don't know Duffy except through some of his comments on Rob's blog, but I tend to agree with him. What both these guys tend to ignore is the catastrophic consequences of failure to the Arab and Persian peoples. Their culture is literally stuck in the dark ages, and if they''re not reformed/subverted (take your pick) then an awful lot of them are going to get killed, along with the residents of Tel Aviv and New York. What Rob says here is mostly true, but not sufficient. It's a good list of explanations of why the job has been and will be so hard, but not proof that it can't be done. I don't understand why Rob and his ilk miss that point, not really -- I suspect a lot of it is just partisan politics. No doubt Rob would vehemently, eloquently, and esoterically disagree with me (complete with links).

I'd also like to point out that those who say democracy can't be established at gun point have it exactly wrong -- democracy is always established at gun point. There is usually a plurality that either doesn't care or wants the current regime to remain. The tyrants must be driven out or killed or beaten down until they give up; they don't go away willingly. The Soviet Union is the exception that proves the rule (although some think that jury is still out). Others say 80 years is too long to wait for liberty.

Rob generously gave me permission to cut-&-paste his entire blog, with the caveat I clarify he did not mean to demean the Arab people as a race or a genetically inferior people. It's their culture that stinks, not them. He wants to make it clear he is not a racist. OK, so noted. And Rob, we already knew that. Among conservatives, one is permitted to talk about such things without apologizing in advance or kowtowing to PC shrines. Being conservative means never having to say you're sorry ;-)

Sol Stern of the Manhattan Institute, a distinguished educational expert, notes that the budget for public schools in New York City is over $17 billion. That’s about $15,000 per pupil. Meanwhile, the Archdiocese of New York is closing 14 Catholic schools because it cannot support them on a tuition of $3,000 per year. Nobody disputes that the Catholic schools provide, by every measure of achievement, a much superior education.

Let's get out our spreadsheets and have some fun.

Suppose there was a 100% voucher system and I wanted to start my own private scool, grades K - 8, 20 pupils per class, 2 classes per grade. Let's go crazy with really high pay for teachers, nice office rent rate, reasonable administration, computers for everybody, expensive extracirricular activities, busing (a Wild Ass Guess, I admit), and $5.00 lunches (way, way, way more than they spend at my kids' school!). Then let's throw on an extra 10% just to make sure we haven't left anything out.

Revenue:

Gross $ per pupil

# pupils/class

# classes

Total Rev

15,000

20

18

5,400,000

Expenses

Teacher salary

18

70,000

1,260,000

Teacher benefts

18

10,000

180,000

Computers

383

250

95,750

Rent

18,000

20

360,000

Admin salary

5

50,000

250,000

Admin benefits

5

10,000

50,000

Admin rent

1,000

20

20,000

Student ext'r fees

360

874

314,730

Busing

360

779

280,584

Lunch

70,146

5

350,730

Internet & software

360

100

36,000

Supplies

18

2,000

36,000

Misc - 10%

3,233,794

0

323,379

Total expenses

3,557,173

PROFIT FOR ME!

1,842,827

I'm rich!

I cannot wait for the Republicans to take over and break the monopoly of the NEA. No, wait....

Recent high-level Venezuelan military defectors say President Hugo Chavez gave $1 million to al-Qaida shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attack on the United States.

Air Force Maj. Juan Diaz Castillo, formerly a pilot for the Venezuelan leader, was smuggled to Miami last week where he is warning the U.S. of what he calls Chavez's dismissal of the constitution and his ties to terrorism in collaboration with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.

"I must warn America about Chavez," Diaz said. "He is a danger, not just to his own people but to the whole region."

Global warming may not be as dramatic as some scientists have predicted. Using temperature readings from the past 100 years, 1,000 computer simulations and the evidence left in ancient tree rings, Duke University scientists announced yesterday that "the magnitude of future global warming will likely fall well short of current highest predictions." Supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, the Duke researchers noted that some observational studies predicted that the Earth's temperature could rise as much as 16 degrees in this century because of an increase in carbon dioxide or other so-called greenhouse gases. The Duke estimates show the chances that the planet's temperature will rise even by 11 degrees is only 5 percent, which falls in line with previous, less-alarming predictions that meteorologists made almost three decades ago. In recent years, much academic research has indicated otherwise, often in colorful terms and citing the United States as the biggest contributor to global warming. This month, a University of Toronto scientist predicted that a quarter of the planet's plants and animals would be extinct by 2050 because of rising temperatures. On Wednesday, two geophysics professors at the University of Chicago warned those who eat red meat that their increased flatulence contributes to greenhouse gases. Last year, Oregon State University research linked future "societal disruptions" with global warming, while the Carnegie Institution reported that the insulating influence of northern forests alone would raise the Earth's temperature by 6 degrees. In 2004, Harvard University scientists informed Congress that warming had doomed the planet to climatic "shocks and surprises." The Duke research, however, found substantial ups and downs in the Earth's temperature before modern times, countering other studies that confine noticeable temperature increases to the industrialized era. Marked climate change in other centuries resulted from "external forcing," said the Duke findings, citing volcanic eruptions and other influences. "Our reconstruction supports a lot of variability in the past," said research director Gabriele Hegerl of Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences. Although her study found that the Earth is, indeed, warming, Ms. Hegerl discounts dire predictions of skyrocketing temperatures. The probability that the climate's "sensitivity" to greenhouse-gas levels would result in drastically higher temperatures is "substantially" reduced, she said. Ms. Hegerl and her four-member team based their conclusions on thermometer readings over the past century, along with "ancient climate records," including tree-ring studies and ice-core samples that revealed hot and cold spells and airborne particulates over a 700-year period. In addition, they created 1,000 computer-based weather simulations for the past 1,000 years. "Ancient and modern evidence suggest limits to future global warming," the study concluded. It was published in the journal Nature. The topic of global warming, meanwhile, will be framed dramatically in "An Inconvenient Truth," a 94-minute documentary featuring former Vice President Al Gore, who has deemed rising temperatures "a planetary emergency." The Hollywood production will be released to theaters in May and is billed by producer Davis Guggenheim as "the most terrifying film you will ever see." The production also recommends that viewers take "political action." On Tuesday, Mr. Gore paid Roy Neel, a longtime Democratic adviser, $40,000 to help him create a public outreach program on global warming, the New York Daily News reported. The American Spectator and columnist Jonah Goldberg have accused Mr. Gore of "green" scaremongering.

Seen at low tide

HummingbirdFinally, my first hummingbirds. Saw them on a fire bush in Crystal Beach, FL. My rental's neighbor's yard is all xeriscaped, which is ugly to me but just fine with the little hummers. At first, I thought they were the biggest hornets I'd ever seen.

Flamingo!One of these dudes flew right over my house. I couldn't believe it. And please don't tell me it was a roseated spoonbill because it was a frickin' flamingo, dude! Huge and pink and right there above me. I was like so freaking out, you know?

Black SkimmerThese beauties are getting scarce, but one flew by yesterday at low tide on the hunt for minnows.

Dead sea turtlecool, but smelly

Reddish EgretThese have been hanging out around the pool quite a bit lately. Must be a new group of adolesent birds -- the youngsters like to hunt where the water is clear, and it takes them a day to figure out there are not now and never will be fish in the swimming pool no matter how clear the water.

Sand Piper

Brown PelicanI saw a flock of about 200 of these at Disappearing Island yesterday, just south of Anclote Island on the west coast of FL. Good to see such a large flock.

Wood PeckerThey've developed a sudden interest in the orange tree, which just went into bloom.