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Encouraging children to form an emotional attachment to nature may be key to protecting our planets future.

by Jill Suttie as posted in Yes! magazine

Sep 24, 2016

Originally posted by Greater Good

We read it in the news every day. From climate change to overfishing to deforestation, it seems that we are on the brink of a natural disaster on an epic scale. If we cannot do something to reverse these trends, we will surely make our planet uninhabitable.

But how do we encourage peopleespecially our kidsto care more and take action?

Scientists are starting to uncover how to encourage that compassionate concern in children. Social scientists are beginning to look for answers to this question with some prom

This paper is made available with the permission of the World Future Society, Bethesda, MD

Readers should know that Dr. Graves was not entirely satisfied with this piece as it appeared in The Futurist, though it is by far the most popular of his articles and quite readable as an introduction to the theory.

Significant portions of this article were crafted by editor Ed Cornish using Dr. Graves’s basic ideas and principles. Graves was also not entirely happy with some of these depictions of levels such as GT and HU, as well as parts of the commentary added by the editor. The portions with heavy editorial involvement are indented.

A new psychological theory holds that human beings exist at different levels of existence. At any given level, an individual exhibits the behavior and values characteristic of people at that level; a person who is centralized at a lower level cannot even understand people who are at a higher level. In the following article, psychologist Clare Graves outlines his theory and what it suggests regarding man’s future. Through history, says Graves, most people have been confined to the lower levels of existence where they were motivated by needs shared with other animals. Now, Western man appears ready to move up to a higher level of existence, a distinctly human level. When this happens there will likely be a dramatic transformation of human institutions.

For many people the prospect of the future is dimmed by what they see as a moral breakdown of our society at both the public and private level. My research, over more than 20 years as a psychologist interested in human values, indicates that something is indeed happening to human values, but it is not so much a collapse in the fiber of man as a sign of human health and intelligence. My research indicates that man is learning that values and ways of living which were good for him at one period in his development are no longer good because of the changed condition of his existence. He is recognizing that the old values are no longer appropriate, but he has not yet understood the new.

The error which most people make when they think about human values is that they assume the nature of man is fixed and there is a single set of human values by which he should live. Such an assumption does not fit with my research. My data indicate that man’s nature is an open, constantly evolving system, a system which proceeds by quantum jumps from one steady state system to the next through a hierarchy of ordered systems.

Briefly, what I am proposing is that the psychology of the mature human being is an unfolding, emergent, oscillating, spiraling process marked by progressive subordination of older, lower-order behavior systems to newer, higher-order systems as man’s existential problems change. These systems alternate between focus upon the external world, and attempts to change it, and focus upon the inner world, and attempts to come to peace with it, with the means to each end changing in each alternatively prognostic system. Thus, man tends, normally, to change his psychology as the conditions of his existence change. Each successive state, or level of existence, is a state through which people pass on the way to other states of equilibrium. When a person is centralized in one state of existence, he has a total psychology which is particular to that state. His feelings, motivations, ethics and values, biochemistry, degree of neurological activation, learning systems, belief systems, conception of mental health, ideas as to what mental illness is and how it should be treated, preferences for and conceptions of management, education, economic and political theory and practice, etc., are all appropriate to that state.

In some cases, a person may not be genetically or constitutionally equipped to change in the normal upward direction when the conditions of his existence change. Instead, he may stabilize and live out his life at any one or a combination of levels in the hierarchy. Again, he may show the behavior of a level in a predominantly positive or negative manner, or he may, under certain circumstances, regress to a behavior system lower in the hierarchy. Thus, an adult lives in a potentially open system of needs, values and aspirations, but he often settles into what appears to be a closed system.

Human existence can be likened to a symphony with six themes. In a symphony, the composer normally begins by stating his themes in the simplest possible manner. In human existence, our species begins by stating in the simplest way those themes which will preoccupy us through thousands of variations. At this point in history, the societal effective leading edge of man in the technologically advanced nations is currently finishing the initial statement of the sixth theme of existence and is beginning again with the first theme in an entirely new and more sophisticated variation. That is, man has reached the point of finishing the first and most primitive ladder of existence: the one concerned with the emergence of the individual of the species Homo sapiens and his subsistence on this planet. The first six levels of existence, A-N through F-S, have accordingly been called Subsistence Levels. (A stands for the neurological system in the brain upon which the psychological system is based; N for the set of existential problems that the A neurological system is able to cope with. Thus, in the A-N state, one calls on the A system to solve the N problems of existence.) These six subsistence levels comprise the initial statement of man’s themes in its very simplest form.

The six subsistence levels of man’s existence have as their overall goal the establishment of individual survival and dignity. Once having become reasonably secure, both physically and psychologically, in his existence, the individual becomes suddenly free to experience the wonder and interdependence of all life. But he must notice at the same time that the struggle for man’s emergent individuality has imperiled the very survival of that life. Thus, just as early man at the most primitive level of subsistence (A-N), had to use what power he could command to stabilize his individual life functions, so G-T man, the individual who has reached the first level of being must use what knowledge he can command to stabilize the essential functions of interdependent life. Similarly, B-O or tribal man gathered together in communities to insure his individual, physical survival, and our G-T man of the future must form communities of knowledge to insure the survival of all viable life upon this Earth. We see therefore that the six themes constantly repeat, even though man progresses from the simple statement of individual subsistence to the variation of the interdependence of life. This stately succession of themes and movements is the general pattern of the levels of existence.

In this discussion of man’s present and future, the first three subsistence levels must still concern us because many people, from aborigines to newly emergent nations, are still living at these levels of existence.

Here are brief descriptions of the levels as I have come to know them through my research:

Some Characteristics of Various Levels

Automatic Existence (First Subsistence Level)

Man at the first subsistence level (A-N), the automatic state of physiological existence, seeks only the immediate satisfaction of his basic physiological needs. He has only an imperative need-based concept of time and space and no concept of cause or effect. His awareness excludes self and is limited to the presence of physiologically determined tension when it is present, and the relief of such tension when it takes place. He lives a purely physiological existence. Man the species, or man the individual, does not have to rise above this level to continue the survival of the species. He can continue the survival of the species through the purely physiological aspect of the process of procreation. He can live what is for him, at the A-N level, a productive lifetime, productive in the sense that his built-in response mechanisms are able to reduce the tensions of the imperative physiological needs and a reproductive lifetime. But this level of existence seldom is seen in the modern world except in pathological cases.

As soon as man, in his food-gathering wanderings, accrues a set of Pavlovian conditioned reflexes, which provide for the satisfaction of his imperative needs, and thus enters his ‘Garden of Eden,’ he slides almost imperceptibly out of this first stage into the second existential state, and established form of human existence, the tribalistic way of life.

Tribalistic Existence (Second Subsistence Level)

At the second subsistence level, the B-O autistic state of thinking, man’s need is for stability. He seeks to continue a way of life that he does not understand but strongly defends. This level of man has just struggled forth from striving to exist and now has his first established way of life. This way of life is essentially without awareness, thought, or purpose, for it is based on Pavlovian classical conditioning principles. Therefore, B-O man beliefs his tribalistic way is inherent in the nature of things. As a result he holds tenaciously to it, and strives desperately to propitiate the world for its continuance.

At this level a seasonal, or naturally based concept of time prevails and space is perceived in an atomistic fashion. Causality is not yet perceived because man perceives that forces at work to be inherent. Here a form of existence based on myth and tradition arises, and being is a mystical phenomenon full of spirits, magic and superstition. Here the task of existence is simply to continue what it seems has enabled my tribe to be.

But here, more by chance than by design, some men achieve relative control of their spirit world through their non-explainable, elder-administered, tradition-based way of life a way of life which continues relatively unchanged until disturbed from within or without. When the established tribal way of life assures the continuance of the tribe with minimal energy expenditure by solving problems N by neurological means A, it creates the first of the general conditions necessary for movement to a new and different steady state of being. It produces excess energy in the system which puts the system in a state of readiness for change. But unless another factor, such as dissonance or challenge, comes into the field, the change does not move in the direction of some other state of being. Instead, it moves toward maximum entropy and its own demise, since it becomes overloaded with its accretion of more and more tradition, more and more ritual. If, however, when the state of readiness is achieved, dissonance enters, then this steady state of being is precipitated toward a different kind of change. This dissonance arises usually in youth, or in certain minds which are not troubled by memories of the past and are capable of newer and more lasting insights into the nature of man’s being. Or it can come to the same capable minds when outsiders disturb the tribe’s way of life.

When, at the B-O level, readiness for change occurs, it triggers man’s insight into his existence as an individual being separate and distinct from other beings, and from his tribal compatriots as well. As he struggles, he perceives that others – other men, other animals, and even the spirits in his physical world – fight him back. So his need for survival comes to the fore.

With this change in consciousness, man becomes aware that he is aligned against predatory animals, a threatening physical universe, and other men who fight back for their established way of existence, or against him for the new way of existence he is striving to develop. Now he is not one-with-all, for he is alone in his struggle for his survival against the draconic forces of the universe. So he sets out in heroic fashion to build a way of being which will foster his individual survival.

Egocentric Existence (Third Subsistence Level)

At the egocentric level (C-P), raw, rugged, self-assertive individualism comes to the fore. This level might be termed ‘Machiavellian,’ for within it is all the author of The Prince considered the essence of being human. History suggests to us that the few who were able to gain their freedom from survival problems surged almost uncontrollably forward into a new way of being, and also dragged after them the tribal members unable to free themselves of the burden of stagnating tribalistic existence. History also suggests that the few became the authoritarians while the many became those who submitted. The many accepted the might-is-right of the few because such acceptance assured their survival. This was so in the past and it is still so today.

This Promethean (C-P) point of view is based on the prerogatives of the haves and the duties of the have-nots. Ultimately, when this way of life, based historically on the agricultural revolution, is established, life is seen as a continuous process with survival dependent on a controlled relationship. Fealty and loyalty, service and noblesse oblige become cornerstones of this way of life. Assured of their survival, through fief and vassalage, the haves base life of the right way to behave as their might dictates. A system develops in which each individual acts out in detail, in the interest of his own survival, how life is to be lived, but online a small number ever achieve any modicum of power and the remainder are left to submit.

Both the authoritarian and the submissive develop standards which they feel will insure them against threat, but these are very raw standards. The submissive person chooses to get away with what he can within the life style which is possible for him. The authoritarian chooses to do as he pleases. He spawns, as his raison d’tre, the rights of assertive individualism. These rights become, in time, the absolute rights of kings, the unassailable prerogatives of management, the inalienable rights of those who have achieved positions of power, and even the rights of the lowly hustler to all he can hustle. This is a world of the aggressive expression of man’s lusts openly and unabashedly by the ‘haves,’ and more covertly and deviously by the ‘have nots.’

Now man moves to the lasting security level of need and learns by avoidant learning. As he moves to the D-Q level he develops a way of life based on the conviction that there must be a reason for it all, a reason why the have shall possess so much in life yet be faced with death, and a reason why the have not is forced to endure a miserable existence. This search leads to the belief that the have and have not condition is a part of a directed design, a design of the forces guiding man and his destiny. Thus, the saintly way of life, based on one of the world’s great religions or great philosophies, comes to be. Here man creates what he believes is a way for lasting peace in this life or everlasting life, a way which, it seems to him, will remove the pain of both the have and the have not. Here he seeks salvation.

Saintly Existence (Fourth Subsistence Level)

At the saintly level (D-Q), man develops a way of life based on ‘Thou salt suffer the pangs of existence in this life to prove thyself worthy of later life.’ This saintly form of existence comes from seeing that living in this world is not made for ultimate pleasure, a perception based on the previous endless struggle with unbridled lusts and a threatening universe. Here man perceives that certain rules are prescribed for each class of men and that these rules describe the proper way each class is to behave. The rules are the price man must pay for his more lasting life, for the peace which he seeks, the price of no ultimate pleasure while living. The measure of this worthiness is how much he has lived by the established rules. But, after security is achieved through these absolutistic rules, the time comes when some men question the price. When this happens, the saintly way of life is doomed to decay, since some men are bound to ask why they cannot have some pleasure in this life. Man then struggles on through another period of transition to another level, now slipping, now falling in the quest for his goal. When man casts aside the inhuman aspect of his saintly existence, he is again charged with excess energy because his security problems are solved; but this very solution has created the problems R, how to build a life that will offer pleasure here and now, which eventually he meets through the neurological means of system E.

Materialistic Existence (Fifth Subsistence Level)

At the materialistic level (E-R_, man strives to conquer the world by learning its secrets, rather than through raw, naked force as he did at the C-P level. He tarries long enough here to develop and utilize the objectivistic, positivistic, operationalistic, scientific method so as to provide the material ends for a satisfactory human existence in the here and now. But once assured of his own material satisfaction he finds he has created problems S, a new spiritual void in his being. He finds himself master of the objective physical world but a prime neophyte in the subjectivistic, humanistic world. He has achieved the satisfaction of a good life through his relative mastery of the physical universe, but it has been achieved at a price, the price of not being liked by other men for his callous use of knowledge for himself. He has become envied and even respected, but he is not liked. He has achieved his personal status and material existence at the expense of being rejected even by his use of neurological sub-system F, and begins man’s move to his sixth form of existence.

Personalistic Existenence (Sixth Subsistence Level)

At the personalistic level (F-S), man becomes centrally concerned with peace with his inner self and in the relation of his self to the inner self of others. He becomes concerned with belonging, with being accepted, with knowing the inner side of self and other selves so harmony can come to be, so people as individuals can be at peace with themselves and thus with the world. And when he achieves this, he finds he must become concerned with more than self or other selves, because while he was focusing on the inner self to the exclusion of the external world, his outer world has gone to pot. So how he turns outward to life and to the whole, the total universe. As he does so he begins to see the problems of restoring the balance of life which has been torn asunder by his individualistically oriented, self-seeking climb up the first ladder of existence.

As man moves from the sixth or personalistic level, the level of being with self and other men, the seventh level, the cognitive level of existence, a chasm of unbelievable depth of meaning is crossed. The gap between the sixth level (the F-S level) and the seventh (the G-T level) is the gap between getting and giving, taking and contributing, destroying and constructing. It is the gap between deficiency or deficit motivation and growth or abundance motivation. It is the gap between similarity to animals and dissimilarity to animals, because only man is possessed of a future orientation.

Cognitive Existence (First Being Level)

Once we are able to grasp the meaning of passing from the level of being one with others to the cognitive level (G-T) of knowing and having to do so that all can be and can continue to be, it is possible to see the enormous differences between man and other animals. Here we step over the line which separates those needs that man has in common with other animals and those needs which are distinctly human.

Man, at the threshold of the seventh level, where so many political and cultural dissenters stand today, is at the threshold of being human. He is truly becoming a human being. He is no longer just another of nature’s species. And we, in our times, in our ethical and general behavior, are just approaching this threshold, the line between animalism and humanism.

Experientialistic Existence (Second Being Level)

At the second being level, the experientialistic level (H-U), man will be driven by the winds of knowledge, and human, not godly, faith. The knowledge and competence acquired at the G-T level will bring him to the level of understanding, the H-U level. If every man leaps to this great beyond, there will be no bowing to suffering, no vassalage, no peonage. Man will move forth on the crests of his broadened humanness rather than vacillate and swirl in the turbulence of his animalistic needs. His problems, now that he has put the world back together, will be those of bringing stabilization to life once again. He will need to learn how to live so that the balance of nature is not again upset, so that individual man will not again set off on another self-aggrandizing binge. His values will be set not by the accumulated wisdom of the elders, as in the B-O system, but by the accumulated knowledge of the knowers. But here again, as always, this accumulating knowledge will create new problems and precipitate man to continue up just another step in his existential staircase.

Applying Gravess Theory to Management

Graves criticizes management training programs for trying, in all too many instances, to change managers’ beliefs and ways of behaving so as to bring them more in line with the organization’s pre-existing methods and beliefs. For instance, such programs may manage from a hierarchical to a team management.

These programs do not try to fit managerial development to the beliefs and ways of behaving that are those of the managing person,” says Graves. They attempt, instead, to get the manager to change his beliefs. When organizations foster this kind of incongruency, they cast the manager into a severe value crisis, which often affects his performance adversely.

A second mistake of management, he says, is that it typically does not manage people the way they want to be managed. For instance, many persons like participation management but others do not, yet management has implicitly assumed that participation affects all persons in more or less the same way. In fact, people with an authoritarian cast of mind or with weak independence needs apparently are unaffected or even negatively affected by an opportunity to participate in decision-making.

Graves’s research indicates that a worker with a closed personality normally prefers to be managed by the style congruent with his level of existence. If his personality is still open and growing, he prefers to be managed by a supervisor at the next higher level. For example, a closed personality at the D-Q level prefers a paternalistic form of management, while a worker with an open personality at the same level would like to be managed by E-R methods, which allow more freedom for individual initiative.

Personalistic Values Now Flower in America

Using this framework to approach current American society, we can easily see an efflorescence of personalistic (F-S) values in the popularity of such things as Salem, yoga, the encounter group, the humanistic psychology movement and participatory decision-making in management. By all these means and many others, personalistic (F-S) man endeavors to achieve self-harmony and harmony with others. These individuals do not, of course, see their striving for harmony with the human element as merely a stage they are going through, but as the ultimate, the permanent goal of all life. This short-range vision, which views the current goal as the ultimate goal of life, is shared by human beings at every level of existence for as long as they remain centralized in that particular level.

Using the Theory of Levels, we see that the so called generation gap of the recent past was in reality a values gap between the D-Q and the E-R and F-S levels of existence. For example, many of the parents of F-S youth subscribed to E-R values, which emphasize proving one’s worth by amassing material wealth. To individuals operating at this level it was inconceivable that their children might reject competition for cooperation and seek inner self-knowledge rather than power, position and things. Worse yet to the E-R parents was the devotion of these young people to foreigners and minority groups who, according to E-R thinking, deserved their unfortunate condition because the were too weak or too stupid to fight for something better. Thus, the foreigners and minorities were characterized as lazy and irresponsible and the youth who defended them as lily-livered bleeding hearts.

In turn, F-S youth contributed to the confrontation because their civil disobedience and passive resistance offended their parents more than outright violence ever could have. These young people not only challenged Might (and therefore Right), but offered no new Might and Right to replace that which they mocked. Consequently, they were rightly (to the E-R mentality) called anarchists, and it was widely said that such permissiveness was wrecking the values which made America great. Of course, our hindsight now tells us that America was not, in fact, “wrecked,” and today one can see a great many of the E-R parents who protested against anarchy getting in touch with themselves at Esalen and advocating theories of participative management.

Another outgrowth of the transition of our society from E-R to F-S values was the de-emphasis of technology. Technology was the principal means by which E-R man conquered the world. He did not, like his ancestor C-P man, use force alone, but rather he attempted to understand the natural laws in order to conquer men and nature. Because of the close historical association of technology with E-R values, the emerging F-S consciousness could not help but view technology as a weapon of conquest. Thus, along with rejecting conquest, F-S man rejected technology and in its place set up its exact opposite: Nature. In other words, the exploration of inner man and a return to nature (including all manner of idealized natural foods) replaced the exploitation of nature and other human beings in a quest for material wealth.

The idea of a future suffered a similar fate. American E-R man was always insistent that he had a great future, a manifest destiny somehow enhanced by never having lost a war. Therefore, F-S man, in his rebellion, was forced to throw the future into the same garbage heap as technology, erecting in its place the here and now.

Picture, if you will, F-S man seated in a yoga position, contemplating his inner self. He has completed the last theme of the subsistence movement of existence. There are no new deficiency motivations to rouse him from his meditations. In fact, he might well go on to contemplating his navel to the day of his death, if he only had some suitable arrangement to care for his daily needs. And it is quite possible for a few F-S individuals to live this way. But what happens when the majority of a population begins to arrive at the F-S level of existence? Who is left to care for their daily needs? Who is left to look after the elaborate technology which assures their survival? If we return to F-S man seated in his yoga position, we see that what finally disturbs him is the roof falling in on his head.

This roof can be called the T problems, the ecological crisis, the energy crisis, the population crisis, limits to growth, or any other such thing which is enough of a disturbance to awaken F-S man. Naturally enough, his first reaction will be that evil technology is taking over and that all the good feeling and greenery which made the Earth great is in the process of being wrecked forever. (We remember that attitude from the days when his father, E-R man, had much the same erroneous notion.) F-S man is correct in the sense that his entire way of life, his level of existence, is indeed breaking down: It must break down in order to free energy for the jump into the G-T state, the first level of being. This is where the leading edge of man is today.

The People that Drive Managers Crazy

Most people in organization in the western world are in the middle levels of existence (D-Q, E-R, and, increasingly, F-S). Managers are used to dealing with such people. Occasionally, however, a manager must deal with people at either a lower or higher level, and then his customary methods fail, Graves says.

People at the C-P level (Egocentric) are found frequently in very impoverished areas. These people exhibit the least capability to perform in a complex industrial world. When a job is available, they do not apply. If they get a job, they do not show up for work or they soon quit. While they are on the job, their habits are so erratic that little work is actually accomplished. Exasperated managers find such people unemployable. Society labels them hardcore unemployed.

To a Gravesian, people at the C-P level are employable, but they must be managed in a special way. The Graves theory holds that C-P people are driven primarily by the need to solve immediate survival problems. Applying the theory, a Gravesian manager would arrange the work situation so that the immediate survival needs of the worker are not threatened and would give him work that can be learned almost immediately.

The manager would also change the hiring requirements so that they do no threaten a C-P person. For instance, the Gravesian manager would simplify and speed up the processing of applications so that people know in minutes if they are hired and, if not hired, are taken immediately to some place where they might find jobs. He would make sure that C-P people are not supervised by self-righteous, do-good managers.

The hard-core unemployed person lives in a world of immediacy, says Graves. Often he must pay money down for almost everything he gets, and because of his immediate reactions to the crises he faces, he may be an absentee problem. To counteract these problems, a member of the organization might be assigned to administer an emergency fund to help the C-P person through difficult periods.

At the opposite extreme, managers must also deal with another group of people whom they find extremely troublesome, the G-T and H-U people. Ironically, these are among the most competent people. They possess knowledge needed to improve productivity in the organization, but often they are kept from improving productivity by ancient policies, inane practices, out-moded procedures and inappropriate managerial styles.

The G-T and H-U people want autonomy, the freedom to do their jobs the best way they know. When management requires such a person to procure permission to institute change when he sees change is needed, it stifles what he can contribute.

The sacred channels of communication seriously hamper the productivity of G-T people, who want to be able to decide when they know what to do. When he doesn’t know, the G-T is motivated to seek guidance from those who do know. But a G-T employee’s motivation becomes negative when he must waste time going through channels which require him to explain what does not need to be explained to people who do not need to have it explained to them.

The G-T worker reacts negatively when required to ask an administrator’s approval for materials he needs in order to be productive. He reacts positively when he can tell his supervisor what he needs to do a job and when the supervisor considers that it is his job to do as his subordinate says. The G-T employee believes that he, not a superior, should make the decisions whenever he is competent to make it, and most G-T workers know that their supervisors are not competent to make the decision.

People who operate at the Being levels are typically competent regardless of their surroundings. Therefore, their productivity is not a function of lower-level incentives. Threat and coercion do not work with them, because they are not frightened people. Beyond a certain point, pecuniary motives do not affect them. Status and prestige symbols, such as fancy titles, flattery, office size, luxurious carpeting, etc., are not incentives to them. Many of them are not even driven by a need for social approval. What is important to them is that they be autonomous in the exercise of their competence, that they be allowed all possible freedom to do what needs to be done as best they can do it. In other words, they want their managers to let them improve productivity the way they know it can be improved. They do not want to waste their competency doing it management’s way simply because things always have been done that way.

G-T people are becoming more prevalent, says Graves. They must do their own managing of their own work and of their own affairs. Their procedures must be their own, not those that tradition or group decision-making have established. When G-T employees are autonomous and are properly coupled with jobs that utilize their competence, one can expect optimum productivity from them.

An H-U employee does not resist coercion and restrictions in a flamboyant manner as does the G-T type, but he will avoid any relationship in which others try to dominate him. He must therefore be approached through what Graves calls “acceptance management” – management which takes him as he is and supports him in doing what he wants to do. It is useless, says Graves, to get an H-U employee to subordinate his desires to those of the organization. Instead, the organization must be fitted to him. If he cannot get the acceptance he wants, an H-U employee will quietly build a non-organizationally oriented world for himself and retire into it. He will do a passable but not excellent job. If there is no change in management and he cannot go elsewhere, he will surreptitiously work at what is important to him while putting up a front to management.

Human Progress Can Be Arrested

At this point it might be good to take a closer look at what happens when man changes levels of existence. The process itself is similar to some very basic phenomena in quantum mechanics and brain physiology, suggesting that it may in fact derive from the same laws of hierarchical organization. Basically, man must solve certain hierarchically ordered existential problems which are crucial to him in his existence. The solution of his current problem frees energy in his system and creates in turn new existential problems. (For instance, both the self-centering and other-awareness of the F-S state are necessary if the G-T problems of how life can survive are to be posted.) When new problems arise, higher order dynamic neurological systems are biochemically activated to solve them.

Will man inevitably progress, both as an individual and as a species, to higher levels of existence? Or can he become fixed at some level, even regress? The answer is that man can indeed become fixed at one level, and he can regress. A frightening example of cultural regression to the most primitive level of existence is that of the Ik tribe of Uganda which, after losing its lands, degenerated past any recognizable sign of humanity. (See anthropologist Colin Turnbull’s book, The Mountain People.) Many tribes of American Indians at the end of the last century shared a like fate. Despite this, we must remember that the tendency for man to grow to higher states is always present, and may be likened to the force that enables a tree to crack boulders so that each year it can add another ring to its heartwood. Like the tree, man is most often stunted in his growth by external circumstance: poverty, helplessness, social disapproval and the like. Often, the full expression of the level of existence at which man finds himself is simply not possible. Few people, for instance, have the opportunity of fully indulging their E-R values by attempting to conquer man and nature. Consequently, man often is halted at this level and develops the lust for power which is so frequently believed to be universal in man.

Man, the species, must fully realize each level of existence if he is to rise to the next higher level, because only by pursuing his values to their limits can he recognize the higher-order existential problem that these particular values do not apply to. E-R man had to become powerful over nature in order to see that beyond the problem of power was the problem of knowing the inner self: the F-S level. He could not very well coerce or manipulate his neighbor into knowing himself. Therefore, his useless E-R values inevitably began to disintegrate as a way of life. Thus it seems that a moral breakdown regularly accompanies the transition from one level of existence to another. Man drops his current way of perceiving and behaving, and searches his cast-off levels for a way of behaving that will solve his new problem. In his frustration, E-R man may protest that he sacrificed for what he got (D-Q level) or make an appeal to law and order (C-P level) to end the demonstrations against him. All this will be to no avail because, naturally, no lower level behavior will solve his new higher-order problem. E-R man will be forced to take the first steps towards a new way of perceiving and behaving: the F-S system. With his first step he becomes F-S man, both because he is now understanding and respectful of the inner self of others rather than being powerful and manipulation, but because the greater part of his energy is now devoted to the problem of how to achieve community through personal and interpersonal experiencing.

We can therefore see that our time at each level of existence is divided between an embryonic period of identifying the values needed to solve the new existential problem, a period of implementing the values toward the solution of the problem, and a period of values breakdown following the successful solving of the problem. It is this final phase of break-down which causes such periodic dismay in society, but dissolution is necessary so that man can be free to recognize new existential problems. There is, in addition, an appearance of breakdown which results from the realization of the new values themselves, because these new values are so often the exact antithesis of the old. In that sense, the new values do represent the ultimate breakdown of the current basis of society, or of the individual’s way of life.

Finally, there is a singular empirical fact associated with man’s transitions from one level of existence to another. As our species moves up each step on each ladder of existence, it spends less and less time at each new level. It took literally millions of years for our ancestors to become tribalistic B-O man, while in the technologically advanced nations today man is moving from the E-R level through F-S to G-T in a scant twenty years. There is every reason to expect we will remain for a long time at the G-T level, then a shorter time at the H-U and other second ladder levels. At the G-T level, man will begin the task of subsistence again but in a new and higher order form (the survival of the human race), assuming, of course, that no external circumstances, such as a major war or other catastrophe, intervene to arrest our growth.

Levels of Existence

First Subsistence Level (A-N): Man at this level is motivated only by imperative periodic physiological needs. He seeks to stabilize his individual body functions. This level of existence is perfectly adequate to preserve the species, but it is seldom seen today except in rare instances, as in the Tasaday tribe, or in pathological cases.

Second Subsistence Level (B-O): At this level, man seeks social (tribal) stability. He strongly defends a life he does not understand. He believes that his tribal ways are inherent in the nature of things, and resolutely holds to them. He lives by totems and taboos.

Third Subsistence Level (C-P): Raw, self-assertive individualism comes to the fore at this level, and the term Machiavellian may be used. This is the level where might makes right thinking prevails. There is an aggressive expression of mans lusts, openly and unabashedly by the haves, more covertly and deviously by the have nots. Anyone dealing with the C-P type must resort to the threat of sheer naked force to get him to do anything.

Fourth Subsistence Level (D-Q): At this level, man perceives that living in this world does not bring ultimate pleasure, and also sees that rules are prescribed for each class of people. Obedience to these rules is the price that one must pay for more lasting life. D-Q people generally subscribe to some dogmatic system, typically a religion. These are the people who believe in ‘living by the Ten Commandments,’ obeying the letter of the law, etc. They work best within a rigid set of rules, such as army regulations.

Fifth Subsistence Level (E-R): People at the E-R level want to attain mastery of the world by learning its secrets rather than through brute force (as at the C-P level). They believe that the man who comes out on top in life fully deserves his good fortune, and those who fail are ordained to submit to the chosen few. E-R people tend to be somewhat dogmatic, but they are pragmatic, too, and when they find something that works better theyll change their beliefs.

Sixth Subsistence Level (F-S): Relating self to other human selves and to his inner self is central to man at the F-S level. Unlike the E-R people, F-S man cares less for material gain or power than he does for being liked by other people. He’s ready to go along with whatever everyone else thinks is best. He likes being in groups; the danger is that he gets so wrapped up in group decision-making that little work gets done.

First Being Level (G-T): The first being level is tremendously different from the earlier subsistence levels, says Graves. Here as man, in his never-ending spiral, turns to focus once again on the external world and his use of power in relation to it, the compulsiveness and anxiousness of the subsistence ways of being are gone. Here man has a basic confidence that he, through a burgeoning intellect freed of the constriction of lower level anxieties, can put the world back together again. If not today, then tomorrow. Here he becomes truly a cooperative individual and ceases being a competitive one. Here he truly sees our interdependence with all things of this universe. And here he uses the knowledge garnered through his first-ladder trek in efforts to put his world together again, systemically.

Second Being Level (H-U): People operating in an H-U fashion have been rare in Graves’s studies. Almost all of Gravess subjects who so behaved have been in their late fifties and beyond. What typifies them is a peculiar paradoxical exploration of their inner world. They treat it as a new toy with which to play. But even though playing with it, they are fully aware that they will never know what their inner selves are all about. Graves says this idea is best illustrated by a poem of D. H. Lawrence, Terra Incognita.

Summary Table from the Article (click for .pdf version)

Man Now Faces Most Difficult Transition

The present moment finds our society attempting to negotiate the most difficult, but at the same time the most exciting, transition the human race has faced to date. It is not merely a transition to a new level of existence but the start of a new movement in the symphony of human history. The future offers us, basically, three possibilities: (1) Most gruesome is the chance that we might fail to stabilize our world and, through successive catastrophes regress as far back as the Ik tribe has. (2) Only slightly less frightening is the vision of fixation in the D-Q/E-R/F-S societal complex. This might resemble George Orwell’s 1984 with its tyrannic, manipulative government glossed over by a veneer of humanitarian sounding doublethink and moralistic rationalizations, and is a very real possibility in the next decade. (3) The last possibility is that we could emerge into the G-T level and proceed toward stabilizing our world so that all life can continue.

If we succeed in the last alternative, we will find ourselves in a very different world from what we know now and we will find ourselves thinking in a very different way. For one thing, we will no longer be living in a world of unbridled self-expression and self-indulgence or in a world of reverence for the individual, but in one whose rule is: Express self, but only so that all life can continue. It may well be a world which, in comparison to this one, is rather restrictive and authoritarian, but this will not be the authority of forcibly taken, God-given or self-serving power; rather it will be the authority of knowledge and necessity. The purpose of G-T man will be to bring the earth back to equilibrium so that life upon it can survive, and this involves learning to act within the limits inherent in the balance of life. We may find such vital human concerns as food and procreation falling under strict regulation, while in other respects society will be free not only from any form of compulsion but also from prejudice and bigotry. Almost certainly it will be a society in which renewable resources play a far greater role than they do today: wood, wind and tide may be used for energy; cotton and wool for clothing, and possibly even bicycles and horses for short trips. Yet while more naturalistic than the world we know today, at the same time the G-T world will be unimaginably more advanced technologically; for unlike F-S man, G-T man will have no fear of technology and will understand its consequences. He will truly know when to use it and when not to use it, rather than being bent on using it whenever possible as E-R man has done.

The psychological keynote of a society organized according to G-T thinking will be freedom from inner compulsiveness and rigidifying anxiety. G-T man, who exists today in ever increasing numbers, does not fear death, nor God, nor his fellow man. Magic and superstition hold no sway over him. He is not mystically minded, though he lives in the most mysterious of mystic universes. The G-T individual lives in a world of paradoxes. He knows that his personal life is absolutely unimportant, but because it is part of life there is nothing more important in the world. G-T man enjoys a good meal or good company when it is there, but doesn’t miss it when it is not. He requires little, compared to his E-R ancestor, and gets more pleasure from simple things than F-S man thinks he (F-S man) gets. G-T man knows how to get what is necessary to his existence and doesn’t not want to waste time getting what is superfluous. More than E-R man before him, he knows what power is, not to create and use it, but he also knows how limited is its usefulness. That which alone commands his unswerving loyalty, and in whose cause he is ruthless, is the continuance of life on this earth.

The G-T way of life will be so different from any that we have known up to now that its substance is very difficult to transmit. Possibly the following will help: G-T man will explode at what he does not like, but he will not be worked up or angry about it. He will get satisfaction out of doing well but will get no satisfaction from praise for having done so. Praise is anathema to him. He is egoless, but terribly concerned with the rightness of his own existence. He is detached from and unaffected by social realities, but has a very clear sense of their existence. In living his life he constantly takes into account his personal qualities, his social situation, his body, and his power, but they are of no great concern to him. They are not terribly important to him unless they are terribly important to you. He fights for himself but is not defensive. He has no anxiety or irrational doubt but he does feel fear; he seeks to do better, but is not ambitious. He will strive to achieve- but through submission, not domination. He enjoys the best of life, of sex, of friends, and comfort that is provided, but he is not dependent on them.

These are the Futurists Maps of the World. I have scoured much of the internet for quite some time now compiling these maps, and I know they are the favorite topic of my readers. This may not be all of them, but from what I found while searching the internet, this is the most you will find in one place- neatly grouped together. I hope you guys enjoy this, and check back in the future because if I find more I will add them!

Also, this cool tool provided by Alex Tingle is awesome! An interactive flood map, based on where you are, that allows you to look at what the land around you would look like with a 60 meter sea level rise! CLICK HERE FOR THE INTERACTIVE FLOOD MAP

Two questions came to mind when putting this together.. 1. Why are the majority of them just the USA? Is that a coincidence? ..and.. 2. Why do they all look so eerily similar?

*I do not own any of these images. *Please comment if you have more information about origins/back stories/unidentified map clarifications, etc!

Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in all of human history.

By 2030 the average person in the U.S. will have 4.5 packages a week delivered with flying drones. They will travel 40% of the time in a driverless car, use a 3D printer to print hyper-individualized meals, and will spend most of their leisure time on an activity that hasnt been invented yet.

The world will have seen over 2 billion jobs disappear, with most coming back in different forms in different industries, with over 50% structured as freelance projects rather than full-time jobs.

Over 50% of todays Fortune 500 companies will have disappeared, over 50% of traditional colleges will have collapsed, and India will have overtaken China as the most populous country in the world.

Most people will have stopped taking pills in favor of a new device that causes the body to manufacture its own cures.

Space colonies, personal privacy, and flying cars will all be hot topics of discussion, but not a reality yet.

Most of todays top causes, including climate change, gay liberation, and abortion, will all be relegated to little more than footnotes in Wikipedia, and Wikipedia itself will have lost the encyclopedia wars to an upstart company all because Jimmy Wales was taken hostage and beheaded by warring factions in the Middle East over a controversial entry belittling micro religions.

Our ability to predict the future is an inexact science. The most accurate predictions generally come from well-informed industry insiders about very near term events.

Much like predicting the weather, the farther we move into the future, the less accurate our predictions become.

So why do we make them?

In the segments below, Ill make a series of 33 provocative predictions about 2030, and how different life will be just 17 years in the future.

I will also explain why predictions are important, even when they are wrong.

Why Understanding the Future is Important

Ignorance is a valuable part of the future. If we knew the future we would have little reason to vote in an election, host a surprise party, or start something new.

Once a future is known, we quickly lose interest in trying to influence it. For this reason, our greatest motivations in life come from NOT knowing the future.

So why, as a futurist, do I spend so much time thinking about the future?

Very simply, since no one has a totally clear vision of what lies ahead, we are all left with degrees of accuracy. Anyone with a higher degree of accuracy, even by only a few percentage points, can achieve a significant competitive advantage.

The Power of Prediction

If I make the prediction that By 2030 over 90% of all crimes will be solved through video and other forms of surveillance, a forecast like that causes several things to happen.

First, you have to decide if you agree that a certain percent of crimes will be solved that way. If so, it forces you to think about how fast the surveillance industry is growing, how invasive this might be, and whether privacy concerns might start to shift current trends in the other direction.

More importantly, it forces you to consider the bigger picture, and whether this is a desirable future. If it reaches 90%, how many police, judges, and lawyers will be out of a job as a result of this? Will this create a fairer justice system, a safer society, or a far scarier place to live?

Please keep this in mind as we step through the following predictions.

33 Dramatic Predictions

Final Thoughts

Reading through the prediction above you will likely have experiences a number of thoughts ranging from agreement, to amusement, to confusion, to total disagreement.

As with most predictions, some will be correct and others not. But the true value in this list will come from giving serious consideration to each of them and deriving your own conclusions.

If you were expecting me to aggressively defend all these predictions, then this column will certainly disappoint you. It has been a lifetime journey for me to formulate my thoughts about the future, but there are far too many variables to build a defensible case for any of them.

Physicists are pretty great at smashing particles such as protons and lead ions together at mind-boggling speeds in particle colliders like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), but particles are only half the story when it comes to understanding the tiniest interactions that govern the fundamental workings of the Universe. There are also interactions between particles []

Hyperloop Technology A Video featuring the first full-scale demonstration of Hyperloop Technology

Technological Inventions Inc the First drone with virtual reality goggles as well as a mug that regulates the temperature of its contents. Also the only smart key you will ever need and a smart indoor ecosystem that allows you to grow anything with ease. Simplify the way you store and organize your photos by time, []

Here is an amazing new Motorcycle that can turn into aJet Ski in under 5 seconds at the touch of a Button

For the first time, researchers have created a type of stretchy, polymer film that theyre claiming acts like a second skin barrier layer. Thats a big deal, because it means it could one day be used to protect us from sunburn and treat conditions like eczema, but what people are getting really excited about is []

Scientific discovery doesnt get anywhere without collaboration. Even Einstein knew that one genius locked in a room cant solve all the mysteries of the Universe. So when NASA does a patent dump, and allows scientists and engineers from all over the world to get a look at its incredible research, its an awesome thing. This []

The Meditation Wall is a form of stress management that will allow our minds to experience an Oasis of Peace and Love within our heart and mind. The Meditation Wall gives back control, so that no matter what is happening externally, whether it is positive or negative, you can still develop control over your thoughts and thus control the emotions and feelings in your mind.

No one can control or eradicate adversity in lives, but you can master the way you respond in regards to your thinking processes. With Positive Energy and a collaborated group effort of like minded individuals, we are focusing on Healing, Positive Energy for everyone who participates in this Meditation Wall.

What does the future hold? Without a magic ball, no one truly knows. And yet, businesses the world over count on a certain degree of premonition when they plan out a product unveiling two years into the future, or schedule changes in hardware or infrastructure within the next decade. A Futurist is the professional combination of Mathematician, Scientist, and Fortune Teller who offers predictions of what the future holds.

As a Futurist, you might have a background in just about anything. Whether youve been a Lawyer, a Landscaper, or a Librarian, youve acquired the skills of reading between the lines, understanding what people want, and forecasting behaviors.

You earn the title of Futurist when you tap into that understanding and begin to draw conclusions about how customers will act five or more years into the future. Will they go back to brick-and-mortar shopping or rely even more heavily on the Internet?

While your skills benefit pharmaceutical companies planning to promote a new line of medications and toy manufacturers seeking the new generation of electronics, you also promote a better understanding of important societal issues. For example, you might forecast gas consumption, or crunch the most reliable data to calculate up-and-coming economic powerhouses, key players in the political world, or world-altering weather changes.

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As a thinker about the future, corporations and institutions around the world have retained him, due to his high level insights and forecasts about the future. As a speaker he has delivered more than 400 speeches on all six inhabited continents and in twelve countries. He has called this new age The Shift Age. Welcome to the future!

“An outstanding presentation for an industry and association that falls on its traditions so often. We learned that our tradition should not be something that holds us back, but rather the launching pad for innovation for the future. Thanks Jim for your thought provoking presentation!”

– 94th PGA of America Annual General Meeting

“On behalf of the entire Innovative Technology Partnerships Office, thank you for your engaging and thought-provoking presentation at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. From the feedback we have received, the event was a great success. Thank you for sharing your insight and expertise with us!”

– NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

“We were extremely pleased with Jims presentation… the content was bang-on and would hopefully prompt people to think about the rapidity of change going on in our world!. Jims storytelling approach really helps to get his points across! He did a great job!”

– Walt Disney Company

“We thought Jim was amazing – just the positive message we wanted to leave folks with.

– T. Rowe Price

People were really excited and energetic. I got comments about your presentation and the day as a whole like home run and perfect. Your presentation was policy in a thought provoking way – and with the focus on the future and technology, the Denver Chamber of Commerce will surely see this as a great jumping off point to their broader transportation conversation.

– Colorado Transportation Summit

“Jim Carroll recently presented at Lockheed Martins Executive HR Leadership conference. His content was very provocative, fascinating, and relevant. Ive embedded a couple of his nuggets into my operating model

– Lockheed Martin

“Many thanks for your presentation, 7 Things You Need to Do Right Now: Aligning the Fast Future to Your Current Strategy It couldn’t have been more energy filled and dynamic to start the conference out on the right foot. It was exactly what the audience wanted and needed to hear. The feedback from all attendees was excellent.”

– VIBE Conference, Las Vegas

“Bringing Jim into our MLC Sales Conference in Sydney through a fibre optic line was truly incredible. The key note session Jim delivered was on the money, he exceeded my expectations.”

– MLC National Australia Bank

“Jim is one of the best speakers we had. He had excellent information that our attendees could take home and incorporate it into their plans immediately. He also incorporated our messages into his presentation that helped localize the information for our group. Highly recommended!”

– Illinois Bureau of Tourism.

“After seeing Jim speak at another conference, I was so motivated by his presentation, I invited Jim to speak at a conference for my organization. Another home run! Powerful, articulate, thought provoking and energetic! Jim’s delivery on the importance of staying abreast of rapidly changing trends truly can assist in changing the way we do business!”

– US Navy, Air Force, Marine Child Youth Program Conference

“… your talk hit just the right note…..I did have several people ask me if they could get a copy of your presentation as well as many who noted that the programming was fantastic and gave them a lot to think about.”

-Consumer Electronics Association CEO Summit

“Thank you for an outstanding opening keynote for the 10th Anniversary Opportunities Conference: you received a 100% approval rating which has only been achieved 2 other times in our 10 year history!”

-Opportunities Conference Organizer

We were extremely pleased with Jims presentation.. the content was great and would hopefully prompt people to think about the rapidity of change going on in our world! You were superb! As we make changes your message could not have come at a better time. This group likes tradition but unfortunately that often gets in the way of moving forward. Thank you again for reminding us that our greater responsibility is to the future!”

– US National Recreation and Parks Association

I have been working with Jim for the past four years, and, without question, he is one of the most dynamic speakers and professional partners Ive ever come across. Our audiences (internal and external) love him, and he works wonderfully with our customers. .Im willing to bet your first experience will lead to many, many more, as it has with SAP. I wish you the best with him.book him before someone else does!

– SAP

Healthcare in 2021? What will we be doing in 10 years time? Well, according to Jim Carroll, keynote speaker for the opening session, definitely not what we’re doing today! He presented an invigorating view of what our healthcare systems could be looking like and it’s up to us to decide how we get there. We’ll be accepting his challenge to take three scary ideas away and think about how we can make them work, rather than the reasons why they won’t. The poll4 system was fun and it was definitely the first time we’d been asked to turn our phones on during a presentation!

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The Association of Professional Futurists is a global community of professional futurists committed to leadership and excellence in the futures field. Our members provide unique perspectives to help people anticipate and influence the future.

The APF aims to set the standard of excellence for foresight professionals. Members include futurists from businesses, governments and non-profits, consulting futurists, educators, and students in futures studies.

We meet regularly, host active electronic discussions among practitioners, provide professional development programs, recognize excellence in futures works, and offer a rich body of ideas and information about the future for the public.

For members: please see further instructions about the new website on the Community page (navigation at left, sign-in required).

Excellence in Leadership Awards 2015

The APF recognizes Maree Conway and Ken Harris with Excellence in Leadership awards for their extraordinary service. Certificates were presented at the Annual Reception and Awards Presentation in San Francisco on 25 July 2015.

Maree Conway, Thinking Futures, took APFs membership data from an unruly mess of several lists and incomplete information to a full-fledged database that links profiles and engagement to financial and membership for each member. This fully integrated system enables members to maintain and access their own data. Furthermore, Maree nurtured the program through the first five years, communicating with members and managing their questions and concerns. Marees work put the APF on firm footing as a proficiently-run organization.

Ken Harris, The Consilience Group and Tech Cast, founded the Most Significant Futures Works awards program in 2007 which recognizes excellent publications in professional futures works. Initially a virtual book club, under Kens leadership, MSFW grew to an annual program with awards in three categories: methods, content, and images of the future. Ken managed heated differences with smooth leadership, practicality and evidence. This award was presented posthumously to Kens widow. Ken is deeply missed in the APF community.

The Board of the APF would like to thank the leaders, including committee and task force chairs and members for their important contributions in developing a more relevant, robust Association of Professional Futurists.

If you have questions,

2015 Student Recognition Program (SRP) Awards

The theme of the APF 2015 AnnualGatheringwas the future oflearning. The event featured outstanding speakers, workshops, installations, andplay. Participants explored majorforces aligned to disrupt the world offormal and informal learning over the coming decade.

For those who attended: thanks for coming and joining us as we deconstructed and remixed these myriad challenges and opportunities and did what we do best: generate not just future scenarios but ground-breaking concepts that could change the world.

For APF pro futurists who could not attend: all of the sessions were video taped and will be made available soon. Be watching for links and access instructions via the listserv and email notification.

Here’s the Atlanta Gathering Learning Remix webpage.

Contact Joe Tankersley (joe@uniquevisions.net) with questions.

image: Atlanta GA Chuck Koehler flickrcc

2015 San Francisco July 24-26

Professional Development Seminar–SOLD OUT!THE FUTURE OF WORK

APF’s professional futurists explored what the changing future of work means to us, in an interactive experience with knowledgeable members of our community and outside speakers.

We had a limited number of copies of a special edition of Compass created for the WFS conference at the Professional Development Day. Saturday evening at the Annual Reception, and at the WFS bookstore.

APF Members Presenting at WFS San Francisco: A Guide

Each year the Association of Professional Futurists puts together a list of its members who will be speaking at the World Future Societys annual conference. APF members have provided some of the best presentations at WFS each year, and this year looks to be no different!

Here’s the Guide (pdf).

APF members presenting at WFS

This year featured 38 presenters from the APF in wide variety of sessions.

Rosa Alegria Joel Barker

Clem Bezold Alisha Bhagat

Jim Burke Stuart Candy

Maree Conway Adam Cowart

Cornelia Daheim Cindy Frewen

Thomas Frey Joyce Gioia

Fabienne Goux-Baudiment Linda Groff

Bob Harrison Glen Hiemstra

Andy Hines Katie King

James Lee Zhan Li

Richard Lum Mathew Manos

Wendy McGuinness Sam Miller

Katherine Prince Richard Yonck

Herb Rubenstei Omar Sahi

Yvette Montero Salvatico Wendy Schultz

Gray Scott Frank Spencer

Jeff Suderman Jason Swanson

John Sweeney Aubrey Yee

Terry Collins Alisha Baghat

APF Virtual Gathering – June 2015

This V-Gathering was inspired by a conversation on the APF Listserv on the Apple Car and other driverless vehicles. A half hour of ideas by professional futurists was followed by a hosted exchange with attendees.

When:June 02, 2015 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM EDT/US (13.00 New York)

Speakers:Paul Graham Raven, John Jackson, Cindy Frewen

The well attended event explored global futures of transportation, focused on self-driving cars and why Apple and Silicon Valley is interested in automobiles. Paul brought a policy perspective, Cindy discussed design and user experience, and John talked about Apple’s role and the potential of luxury vehicles. The idea of cars as a third place and other alternative forms of transportation turn out to be very freeing for people. A number of links and statistics were shared by attendees. The lively discussion surely could have extended for another hour. Thanks to all who came and offered their expert knowledge. Thanks to Jim for organizing so well despite his flooded home from Houston storms.

Send questions to V-Gatherings Chair/HostJim Breaux.

2015 LONDON GATHERINGS

Last Friday London Gatheringsoccur in the Spring and Fall with three or so events during each series, six total per year.

For questions, contactAndrew Curry.

The second APF event on the 24th April (13:30 for a 14:00 start) was a collaboration between the Club of Amsterdam and the Association of Professional Futurists.This session focused on the human aspect of the future of cities. The soft architecture of cities.People in cities seem to have more in common with each other than with people living in their own country outside of the city. Are we watching a deep global change in values and understanding, led by the boom in city living?

For questions, contactNick Price.

Last Friday London Gathering:

Arctic Futures and the Postnormal Perspective

When: 30 May 2014 430 pm to 700 pm

Where: The Futures Company

Recap

Guy Yeomans, UK based futures consultant specialising in the Arctic, opened up the topical part of the session. Guy took on the hard job of translating a complex picture into a pragmatic primer for the subsequent postnormal futures session. He made good use of visualisations and graphics to avoid getting stuck in detail. This content seemed to be engaging for both members and non-members.

John Sweeney, from the University of Hawaii, then lead a two part presentation. First introducing the concept of postnormal futures and the three tomorrows method which went down well particularly with the APF members. Including hard futures content is good for that audience section. John then went into bridging the postnormal framework into the Arctic futures ground Guy had set up.

The third section was group work in three groups. Guy and John had some Arctic Futures scenario seeds for the groups to build out. Each group created a postcard visualisation of their possible future. This new format for APF events creates an intimate, high level learning dialogue for members and visiting futurists.

2014 Gathering: Convergence in San Francisco March 31 – April 2

A fantastic time, among the best APF gatherings, which is saying a great deal. Thanks to Art Kleiner, Chris Ertel, Nancy Murphy, and Jason Tester (IFTF) for their excellent presentations.

If you have questions, please contactAndy Hines,MSFW Chair.

2013 Most Significant Futures Works Awards

Emerging Fellows 2013-14 Speak Out#4futr

Check out the weekly blog posts by the 2013-14 Emerging Fellows. You will find exciting, thoughtful ideas about futures by new futurists who are still discovering her or his way into the field. They ponder deep ideas about their own futures, chase contagious futures, and question the direction of the field as well as other futures.

Simeon Spearman writes about “Big Data”:

“My initial answer to the challenge of dogmatically data-driven deciders is to reiterate that at the end of the day, our value as futurists is to provide the second derivative perspective, or rather providing insights on how the rates of change are changing.”

2013 Pro Dev Seminar Friday July 19#apfpd13

Here’s the agenda (pdf).

At the APF annual reception Saturday eve July 20, 2013, 5:30 to 7:30 pm, over fifty people convened at the Firehouse in Chicago. The new Emerging Fellows and winners of the Student Recognition Project and the Most Important Futures Works winners were announced. Terry Grim, Foresight Alliance/University of Houston received a first place award for Category 1: “Advance the methodology and practice of foresight and futures studies” for her article in JFS on the Foresight Maturity Model. Heather Schlegel and Jim Breaux were recognized for their exemplary student work. Emerging Fellow Bridgette Engeler-Newberry received her certificate. Congratulations to all!

Town Hall Exchange

APF leaders held a round table discussion on the Future of Foresight Project and the APF’s next Strategic Plan 2014 – 2016.The Future of Foresight essays are posted in the community section (members only, sign in required). and the current Strategic Plan (2011- 2013) being implemented is here.

At the 2013 APF Gathering, an historic number of people experienced one of the best gatherings filled with fantastic ideas, fun, and community.

Wendy Schultz said,

“a terrific and stimulating three days, exactly what I expect of our colleagues. The visits to IST and ADL were interesting and useful, and the Saturday workshop with Starr Long and Mary Flanagan enlightening and fun.”

This witty short proffers futuristic visions of London landmarks by way of a ‘magic’ camera. But while its gleeful inventor turns out to be an escapee from the local asylum, French director Gaston Quiribet may not have been entirely barking up the wrong tree with one of his trick shots – which imagines Trafalgar Square flooded by rising sea levels. Could this be a prophetic glimpse of our great capital’s fate?

Car Styling Magazines May 2015 issue features a 16-page article Hypervan & the Showcase of Previous Works. The article highlights Syds iconic van design as well as a collection of illustrations and includes the announcement of the soon to be available limited edition Hypervan scale model by chroniclecollectibles.com. (http://chroniclecollectibles.com)

> Stay on the Leading Edge Future-proof yourself! Stay on the edge of innovation trends and breakthroughs with Dr. Canton. See today’s news from vantage point of the bigger picture that going to matter. Stay abreast of how science and technology are converging with business and government. > In-depth Presentations Are you Future Ready? Are you learning, innovating and preparing to meet the challenges in your organization for the New Future? Dr. James Canton, CEO The Institute for Global Futures forecasts the future of business and the connected economy, genomics, media, mobile, and more.