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Port Lands flood protection cost rises to $1.25 billion

The cost to flood-protect the Port Lands in eastern Toronto, transforming 715 acres into developable land, has risen from $975 million to $1.25 billion.

“Flood-protecting the Port Lands would unlock its great potential for development, for more parks, more public space and for providing room to support the city’s population and it’s job growth,” said Waterfront Toronto CEO Will Fleissig at a news conference Thursday. “This is a transformative opportunity for our city.”

An artist's rendering of what the Port Lands and new Villiers Island would look like once $1.25 billion in needed flood protection work is completed. (Waterfront Toronto)

The cost estimate was confirmed by a due diligence report from tri-government agency Waterfront Toronto released Thursday. The study found the probability of the actual cost being $1.25 billion or less is 90 per cent. It is very unlikely the project will costs less than $1 billion.

The increased cost is mostly due to the additional need for soil excavation, soil and groundwater treatment and issues related to flowing sand and compressible peat, which complicates soil excavation and how the land is filled for development.

The three levels of government have already been negotiating cost-sharing of the project, which was made a priority for the waterfront agency 14 years ago.

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Neither the federal nor provincial government has committed to fund the flood protection of the largely government-owned land. All three governments did put up $83 million to redo the area around the old Essroc quay, which is a large part of the overall project.

City staff are expected to recommend to Mayor John Tory’s executive committee next week that the other levels of government be asked to commit to a one-third share each of the $1.25 billion.

Flood-protecting the site is key to the mayor’s strategy to develop a SmartTrack station at the former Unilever site, where First Gulf has planned for large-scale development of condos and office buildings. Tory has pitched the revitalization of the Port Lands as Toronto’s version of London’s Canary Wharf. The Unilever site can not be developed until it is flood-protected, Waterfront Toronto said Thursday.

“It is something that we absolutely, positively, without any doubt at all have to get on with,” Tory told reporters on Thursday, noting it is the “biggest single economic development opportunity for this city.”

Tory said that development will more than pay back the investment of flood protection.

The vision for the area south of the Keating Channel to Polson Quay is the creation of an “urban island,” to be called Villiers Island, by rerouting the Don River.

It would eventually attract between 18,000 and 25,000 residents, with 20 per cent of development designated for affordable housing, and 25,000 to 30,000 jobs, Waterfront Toronto says.

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The construction and development of the land would add $5.1 billion to the economy through employment and government revenues, Waterfront Toronto said. That does not include the Unilever site and the additional 50,000 jobs it is expected to create.

The creation of the island is also essential to a group of developers, business and other community leaders pushing for Canada to host Expo 2025 in the Port Lands.

But the Waterfront Toronto study outlines it would take a minimum seven years, starting next year at the earliest, to complete the flood protection work and install basic city infrastructure like roads, hydro, water and sewer mains. That leaves just a year for Expo construction and preparation.

At executive committee in May, Ken Tanenbaum, who is leading the Expo Canada bid corporation, said that the flood protection work and creation of Villiers Island would need to be complete in 2023 in order to allow for the construction of pavilions.

City staff are expected to report on the feasibility of hosting Expo at executive committee next week.

“The flood protection is job one for the whole Port Lands. That is the prize. Let’s keep our eye on the prize here,” said Councillor Paula Fletcher, who represents the area. “We have to make sure we get it done and we get it right.”

The site will be designed to accommodate a future extension of the East Bayfront light-rail line, which has been contemplated by the city and for which an environmental assessment was completed in 2010. The city is currently studying this second phase, which considers connecting the Port Lands.

Waterfront Toronto said Thursday they anticipate the Port Lands area will initially be serviced by bus rapid transit until growth supports the higher-capacity LRT.

Every year the project is delayed is estimated to cost approximately $30 million in inflation costs, the peer-reviewed Waterfront Toronto study says. The study was reviewed by both Dutch Rijkswaterstaat and Peter Kiewit Infrastructure Co.

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