Friday, July 07, 2006

Reds - Acquired Guardado

You have to feel for Travis Chick. He’s become one of “those” guys, one of the Andy Prattish prospects that are good enough to fetch a player that another team doesn’t want but not good enough to pitch in the majors. The Reds are looking for pitching salvation, but if it comes, it’ll be named Homer Bailey, not Chick.

The Reds are in a pennant race and have a wretched bullpen, made even worse by the fact that Todd Coffey’s stuff has looked off lately, possibly due to being turned to endlessly this season as the only dependable reliever on the team. Cincy’s the type of team that should be taking a flyer on Gopher Ball Eddie, though if it doesn’t work out, the results will be 2005 Milton Ugly.

The team also dumped McCracken. Why they waited until July to dump the useless McCracken, only Krivsky knows. They’re calling up DeWayne Wise instead of Chris Denorfia again, which is a mistake. The team’s got a shot at the playoffs and should have their best options on the roster. They say they want Chris Denorfia to play full-time in the minors, but how does that help the team? He’s 26 and most likely done developing and certainly a better option than Wise. Denorfia’s hitting .348 in Louisville - what’s he going to do, learn to hit .400? Either use him in the majors or trade him for another player that you can use in the majors.

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As a Twins fan, I have been repeatedly impressed not only by how similarly the Reds 2006 management has been to the Twins 2001-present management, but also by how similarly fans and the media have reacted. I guess it is predictable that the Krivsky/Ryan "good baseball man" persona remains unthreatening enough to the media as long as the team is not a disaster. Altogether, the Denorfia non-callup is frustrating, but it is trifiling compared to the fact that Krivsky has made the right big moves this year and has the team on track for a better season than anyone (other than Joe Sheehan, if I remember correctly) predicted. Good contract for Dunn, Arroyo trade has been golden so far, Hatteberg has not been a disaster, second base has been much less of a problem than anticipated, they have found productive uses for Rich Aurilia, and he is proactively addressing the bullpen before the market goes crazy in 2 weeks. The Juan Castros, Quinton McCrackens and Dewayne Wises of the world tarnish the overall perception of the Reds front office, much like the Tony Batistas, Doug Mientkiewiczs (yes, plural) and, well, Juan Castros tarnish the Minnesota FO. The bottom line is that these deals do not kill a team as long as they remain on the margins. Sure, you don't want to give away a win or two in a pennant race, but I'd rather take the bad with the good and be IN the pennant race, which Krivsky's teams have done pretty consistently this decade.

I'm always curious when a new GM takes over and makes some moves, how much advice that GM takes from his scouts versus his past experience/scouts with past teams. Even if Krivsky gets credit for the Arroyo/Pena deal for example, was that decision based on what he learned from scouts with the Twins, scouts with the Reds, just stats, his own observations, etc. Maybe the Reds scouts were mis-evaluating Pena or Arroyo and Krivsky's scouting reports from the Twins gave him the perspective to make a good deal. Or vice versa....maybe he just trusted his Reds scouts who said it would be a good deal, whereas previous management wouldn't go for that. But it's really impossible to know how the decision was made, so it's impossible to know to expect similar results in the future.

That said, Krivsky seems to have a good rhythm and gameplan to his moves, as #1 says. He's made a number of minor moves that make you wonder a little, but they are all pretty minor and a couple of them have worked out pretty well.

Good rhythm and gameplan? Picking up a 36-year old ex-closer with a torn rotator cuff who never had much stuff, who struggled through last year getting unbelieveably lucky and has gotten pounded all of this year? Eddie's a great guy but he has now clearly lost both his command and what little stuff he ever had.

That said, Krivsky seems to have a good rhythm and gameplan to his moves, as #1 says. He's made a number of minor moves that make you wonder a little, but they are all pretty minor and a couple of them have worked out pretty well.