Fragile England hope recovering Hoggard can stop the rot

With half an eye on next winter and the other half on last summer, it is little wonder much of England's cricket over the past eight months has lacked focus. Injuries count for much, rendering premature panic and pessimism for the future, but there is no avoiding the fact that, of England's last three Test series, that against Sri Lanka was drawn when it should have been won by a distance, the one in India before that was drawn also but commendably and the first of the winter, in Pakistan, was lost comfortably after the home side turned the tables and took the first match when to all intents and purposes it had been lost.

What precisely had England learned about Pakistan from that series Andrew Strauss, the 77th and latest to captain England, was asked yesterday, the eve of the first Test at Lord's. "Their unpredictability," came the swift response. "You cannot take your eyes off them for a moment." Like Inspector Clouseau, England should always expect the unexpected.

Pakistan are back in England and with an enviable record in recent times which has seen them usurp England's second place in the Test match rankings. A team of mavericks seems settled under Bob Woolmer's coaching regime and the captaincy of Inzamam-ul-Haq. Until 1987, when they took a five-match series 1-0, they had never won a series in England. Since then they have not lost here. They are the only side not to have done so in the last decade.

Now, with the promise of pristine weather and with a side chock full of talent, some of it admittedly mercurial, they have a real chance of extending that run against an England side that, having become bogged down, is finding it increasingly hard to clamber out of the mud. If winning is a habit, then so too is losing - or at least not winning - especially when, as with Strauss, the formative Test years were spent in and around a side that carried all before it.

So for England these coming four Tests are about regaining composure, refocusing, not getting ahead of themselves and, in the oft repeated words of Duncan Fletcher, holding their hands up and coming to the party. This is not an England side filled with novices. Marcus Trescothick, Strauss himself, Geraint Jones, Steve Harmison and, if the hyperbaric chamber has done its job, Matthew Hoggard - form a well-versed nucleus while Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood seem like old hands now.

How the senior players respond could determine how England play. Yesterday Strauss came as close as he could to saying he felt let down by their overall response in the recent disastrous one-day whitewash by Sri Lanka. But Collingwood says there is a vibrancy in the Test match dressing room that is different from that of the one-dayers. England have always been more at home in the Test arena.

The injury to the indefatigable Hoggard has come as a particular blow because his reliability day in and day out, especially with the new ball, at which art he has become a world leader, cannot be readily replaced. He carried an optimistic air yesterday, bowling in the nets, doing some batting and catching a few skiers. With a day to go, his chances of playing appeared to have increased, although it would carry the risk that a blow on the heel of his right hand, where Tim Bresnan's boot caused a laceration, could reopen the wound.

Certainly Strauss was making encouraging noises. Hoggard's absence, though, would leave Harmison, a lacklustre figure this summer, to carry the brunt of the attack on a ground on which he has rarely thrived, such is the effect of the Lord's slope on his action.

Should Hoggard not play, Jon Lewis, as a like-for-like swing bowling replacement, will gain his second cap although, given the fine weather forecast and the way overhead conditions tend to dictate any movement with the ball (clear blue sky and a warm sun to burn off any residual moisture is not what bowlers wish to see at Lord's), he should not expect the sort of erratic swing and seam that Sri Lanka encountered. At least he should bowl straight - a welcome novelty after England's one-day scattershot display - and all the bowlers will hope for better support from the fielders, given that England dropped nine catches here in May.

Pakistan have a weakness - and therefore indecision in their selection - at the top of the order and will be missing the unmatched pace of Shoaib Akhtar and the clever swing of Naved-ul-Hasan. But the middle order of Younis Khan, Inzamam and Mohammad Yousuf is tremendous - as good as it gets - and, with the prospect of Shahid Afridi (whose leg-spin should not be discounted), the brilliant wicket-keeper batsman Kamran Akmal and perhaps the all-rounder Abdul Razzaq as the third seamer instead of Umar Gul, they should not go short of runs.

Early injury scares to the seamers Mohammad Asif, who bowled so well against England in Pakistan, and Mohammad Sami appear to have dissipated. Danish Kaneria, while not yet carrying the aura of his compatriot Mushtaq Ahmed, could prove a handful on a wearing pitch.

The surface in question was under wraps yesterday in order to prevent the sun from drying it out. But it should play much as did that against Sri Lanka, which had excellent carry for the pacemen but failed to deteriorate as much as might have been hoped, helping Sri Lanka to bat out the draw. Any green tinge apparent first thing will have gone by mid-morning, leaving batsmen salivating. The possibility of the sides batting each other into a stupor cannot be discounted.

Pitch watch

The surface for the Sri Lanka Test in May stood up well and this promises to be similar, with good pace and bounce. There is an even covering of grass, which was awaiting its final brush and cut this morning.

Given the good weather forecast, teams should want to win the toss and bat