early three years ago,Indian Prime MinisterNarendra Modi won asweeping nationalelection victory withpromises to developthe economy and root out cor-ruption. But with a series of keystate elections beginning thisweekend, Modi's popularity —and his surprise currency decreethat sparked months of financialuproar — is now being tested.

India is just emerging from the
fallout of a November decision
that withdrew India's two largest
currency notes from circulation
and caused weeks of chaos as
people waited to get their money
back in new bills.

Modi and his Bharatiya Janata
Party hailed the move as a way to
curb tax fraud and corruption
and push India toward more digital spending. Opponents say it
was a self-inflicted blow on the
world's fastest-growing economy, causing enormous hardship
for the vast majority of Indians,
who often rely completely on
cash.

While the five state elections
will not decide whether Modi
remains in office, a loss would be
seen as a serious blow to his
political image. Most important
is the northern state of Uttar
Pradesh, whose immense population of 204 million means state
elections often
help shape the
national political
agenda.

"In these elections, Uttar
Pradesh is the real
biggie," said Ajoy
Bose, a political
analyst in New
Delhi.

"If the BJP were
to lose in Uttar
Pradesh, it would
be a huge setback,
both for the party
and for Modi. It
would destroy the
myth of Modi, who
has been projected
as this political juggernaut of invincible proportions,"
Bose said.

Elections were held Saturday
in the northern state of Punjab
and the beach resort state of Goa.

In Goa, more
than 83 percent
voters had cast
their vote when
polling ended
Saturday.

In the next
phase of the election, the
Himalayan state of
Uttarakhand votes
on Feb. 15, and
remote northeastern Manipur votes
on March 4 and 8.

Elections inUttar Pradesh begin on Feb. 11,but because of the state's size,voting is divided into sevenphases. Results from all the elec-tions will be declared on March

11.

In 2014, the BJP had won an
overwhelming 71 out of 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar
Pradesh, or 15 percent of all
national legislators in the powerful lower house, ensuring that it
emerged as the single largest
party in Parliament.

But Modi now faces a toughfight in Uttar Pradesh, with thestate's current top official,Akhilesh Yadav, in a politicalalliance with the Congress Party,led by Rahul Gandhi, scion of theNehru-Gandhi family that ruledIndia for decades. While theCongress Party is a shadow of itsformer self, it remains the coun-the chances of Yadav'sSamajwadi Party while theCongress Party tries to remainrelevant in a politically key state.

All those candidates must also
face Mayawati, a former chief
minister of the state and a master
of caste-based politics.
Mayawati, who uses only one
name, is a Dalit, the name given
to the lowest rung of India's caste
hierarchy. She commands strong
support among the state's Dalits,
who form more than one-fifth of
the population.

"People in rural areas of thestate saw the currency withdraw-al as an equalizer, where the richand the poor were hit by thesame shortage of currencynotes," said Nomita P. Kumar, aneconomist at the Giri Institute ofDevelopment Studies, a thinktank in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh'scapital. "Poor people were happythat, for once, the rich were inthe same boat as themselves.

They think it was a smart move
by Modi to curb corruption."

Not so in Punjab, where the
ruling coalition of the BJP and
the regional Shiromani Akali Dal
party faces the twin challenges of
strong anti-incumbency sentiment and palpable anger against
the chaos unleashed by the currency withdrawal. Voters
appeared to hold Modi responsible for the economic disruption
that followed the abrupt removal
of currency.

"The people's anger is directed
against Modi and this will be
reflected in the way they vote,"
said Bose, who returned Tuesday
from a trip through that state.

The BJP-led coalition also
faces a strong challenge from the
upstart Aam Aadmi Party, or
Common Man Party, which has
tapped into the voters' disappointment with the state government.

In Goa, the ruling BJP was
beset with divisions among its
political allies, while the Aam
Aadmi Party and the Congress
were also putting up a strong
fight.

Modi's performance in the
current state-level elections is
also likely to determine his political strategy in the run-up to the
next national elections due in
2019, when he is hoping to wrest
a second term in office, analysts
said. "This makes the outcome so
important. It could be a make-or-break election for Modi," said
Bose. The state elections are also
significant for their power to help
elect a new president. While the
Indian presidency is largely ceremonial, it is a high-profile position, and the president can wield
significant power in times of
political crisis.

The current president is
Pranab Mukherjee, a Congress
Party stalwart whose term ends
in July. Presidents are elected by
a combination of national and
state lawmakers. For Modi to
bring in his own president, he
needs to win Uttar Pradesh and
at least one other state..

— AP

NState Polls TestModi Popularity AfterCurrency ChaosWhile the five state elections will not decide whether Modi remainsin office, a loss would be seen as a serious blow to his political image

Above, women display their election
identity cards as they stand in a
queue to cast their votes outside a
polling station at Chogawan village,
about 20 kilometers from Amritsar,
Feb. 4. Right, a polling officer marks
the finger of a voter with indelible ink
at a polling station in Bachiwind village
near Amritsar, Feb. 4.