Daily Archives: May 12, 2017

“The years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines – even panics – that will affect virtually all stocks,” Warren Buffett said in his FY2016 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.

“No one can tell you when these traumas will occur – not me, not Charlie, not economists, not the media. Meg McConnell of the New York Fed aptly described the reality of panics: “We spend a lot of time looking for systemic risk; in truth, however, it tends to find us,” said Mr Buffett.

What should investors do during such scary periods?

“…you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well,” said Mr Buffett, who is chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

Mr Buffett started his thought on this subject by saying: “America’s economic achievements have led to staggering profits for stockholders. During the 20th century the Dow-Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497, a 17,320% capital gain that was materially boosted by steadily increasing dividends. The trend continues: By yearend 2016, the index had advanced a further 72%, to 19,763.

” American business – and consequently a basket of stocks – is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that.”

Taking a dig at naysayers, Mr Buffett said: “Ever-present naysayers may prosper by marketing their gloomy forecasts. But heaven help them if they act on the nonsense they peddle. ”

Then driving home a point about reality, Mr Buffett said: “Many companies, of course, will fall behind, and some will fail. Winnowing of that sort is a product of market dynamism. Moreover, the years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines – even panics – that will affect virtually all stocks. ”

Mr Buffett went on to talk about the two things that investors should not forget during such scary periods.

Toys "R" Us is closing. But independent toy shops say they're doing fine, despite competition from mega-stores. Many parents want to support local business and take their kids to stores where they can play with a toy before they buy it.

[SEOUL] South Korea's Kospi stock index weakened on Monday as major auto shares like Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors marked losses after US regulators opened a probe to look into airbag failure in vehicles from those companies.

Buffettpedia

In the last few weeks, we have seen two high profile unicorns file for initial public offerings. The first out of the gate was Dropbox, a storage solution for a world where gigabyte files are the rule rather than the exception, with a filing on February 23. Following close after, on February 28, Spotify, positioning […]

My posts over the last two months have been heavy, dealing first with my data update from January 2018, and with the market and its volatility in the last few weeks. I felt like taking a break and talking about something lighter and more personal, and giving you an update on my teaching, writing and […]

Jerome Powell, the new Fed Chair, was on Capitol Hill on February 27, and his testimony was, for the most part, predictable and uncontroversial. He told Congress that he believed that the economy had strengthened over the course of the last year and that the Fed would continue on its path of "raising rates". Analysts […]

The last week has been a roller coaster ride, though more down than up, and investors have done what they always do during market crises. The fear factor rises, some investors sell and head for the safer pastures, some are paralyzed not knowing what to do, and some double down as contrarians, buying into the […]

In my first nine posts on my data update for 2018, I focused on the costs that companies face in raising equity and debt, and their investment, financing and dividend decisions. In assessing those decisions, though, I looked at their actions through the lens of value creation, arguing that investing in projects that earn less […]

If success for a farmer is measured by his or her harvest, success in a business, from an investors' standpoint, should be measured by its capacity to return cash flows for its owners. That is not belittling the intermediate steps needed to get there, since to be able to generate these cash flows, businesses have […]

In the United States, as in much of the rest of the world, and as has been true for most of the last century, the tax code has been tilted towards debt, rewarding firms that borrow money with tax savings, relative to those that use equity to fund their operations. While the original rationale for […]

I have spent the last few posts trying to estimate what firms need to generate as returns on investments, culminating in the cost of capital estimates in the last post. In this post, I will look at the other and perhaps more consequential part of the equation, by looking at what companies generate as profits […]

I have long described the cost of capital as the Swiss Army Knife of finance, since it shows up in so many places in finance, albeit in different forms. In corporate finance, it is not only the cost of raising funding for a business but also the hurdle rate to use in capital budgeting and […]

In my last post, I looked at the currency confusions that globalization has brought into financial analysis, and how to clean up for them. In this post, I discuss the other aspect of globalization that is forcing analysts to change long accepted practices in estimating equity risk premiums for companies. Taking what they have learned […]

Warren Buffett was interviewed on CNBC on February 26, 2018 from 6:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m ET., primarily to discuss his annual Letter to Shareholders that was released on February 24. The highlights of this interview were: (1) Berkshire Hathaway’s net worth increased by $65.3 billion in 2017, partially as a result of a $29 […]

I was interviewed on BNN TV (Business News Network – Canada) on February 26, 2018 at 8:40 a.m. ET on Warren Buffett’s Letter To Shareholders. Highlights of my interview: (1) Warren Buffett has not made a major purchase recently because stocks are near all-time highs and he would have to pay a 25% premium over […]

Berkshire Hathaway released Warren Buffett’s 2017 Letter to Shareholders at 8:00 a.m. today. The highlights were: (1) Berkshire’s $65 billion gain in net worth or book value in 2017 resulted from a $36 billion gain from operations and a $29 billion gain from the cut in corporate income taxes in December. As a result, Berkshire’s […]

I am quoted in a Wall Street Journal article: “Playing With $100 Billion, Warren Buffett Is Giant Trader of U.S. Treasury Bills”. “He’s aware that [Berkshire’s cash] is not earning a high rate of return for shareholders,” said David Kass, a professor at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business and a […]

I am quoted in this CNBC article: “Warren Buffett’s partner Charlie Munger reveals how much of an impact luck has on success”. Fellow Omaha-native Buffett has also touted the critical role luck has played in his life and told MBA students at the University of Maryland in 2013 that winning the “ovarian lottery” helped determine his success. “Warren Buffett […]

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2017 Annual Report to shareholders will be posted on the Internet on Saturday, February 24, 2018, at approximately 8:00 a.m. eastern time where it can be accessed at www.berkshirehathaway.com. The Annual Report will include Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders as well as information about Berkshire’s financial position and results of operations. Concurrent […]

In an SEC 13F filing after the market closed today, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) reported the following major changes to its common stock portfolio during the fourth quarter of 2017: Additions: (1) Apple – An additional $5.3 billion stake of 31.2 million shares (or additional 23.3% stake) resulting in a total position valued at $28 […]

I am quoted in the Washington Post: “There is a lot of concern in the rising yield in the 10-year Treasury note,” said David Kass, professor of finance at the University of Maryland. “As it approaches 3 percent, concerns about inflation and competition for stocks by fixed income securities are increasing.”