WinInfo Short Takes, November 18, 2011

I wrote about this week's Microsoft sometimes-contentious annual shareholders meeting on the SuperSite, but there was a related development that further casts doubts on CEO Steve Ballmer's popularity with the company's shareholders. In a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later in the week, Microsoft noted that Ballmer has the approval of 92 percent of shareholders, which seems—and is—pretty high. But it's also lower than the 95 percent approval rating he achieved a year ago, suggesting that slow sales of Windows Phone and Microsoft's creeping inability to quickly enter the tablet market are having an effect on some. More important, perhaps, Ballmer was the only board member not to receive a 99 percent or higher approval rating from shareholders—another indication, perhaps, that not all is well. I suspect the company's performance this coming year, and its ability to deliver strong Windows and Windows Updates, will play a big role in next year's meeting.

Windows 8 Delayed?

Speaking of next year's Windows release, a prominent Microsoft watcher said this week that Windows 8 will ship significantly later than many (myself included) believe. I wouldn't mention such a thing if this was just some random analyst—I abhor most of those people—but this is Michael Cherry of Directions on Microsoft. He's a friend, a trusted source, and a knowledgeable insider and former Microsoftie. So his word carries a lot of weight with me. "I think Windows 8 is about a year away," he said. "I believe there will be an RTM somewhere in the last quarter of 2012. Traditionally, there's been a 90-day gap between RTM and general availability. To me, that means machine availability in 2013." I have a lot of thoughts running through my head about this one, so I'll try to be brief. First, that would be disastrous, and would give Apple—and Amazon now—another year in which to dominate the nascent tablet market. Second, it also highlights something that's been nagging at me about Windows 8, which is that the very scope of this project (completely remaking the Windows runtime, shell, and development/apps environment) makes it hard to believe that Microsoft could deliver the thing on time. When the company provided a not-complete-version of Windows 8 in September, that was a bad sign, since I was told previously that it would be feature-complete. So now I'm looking toward CES in January and wondering. And if Microsoft announces but doesn't release a feature-complete beta at that show, then Michael's schedule will suddenly look very, very likely. And that will be a setback—for the platform and for Microsoft.

Microsoft Will Update Third-Party Software in Windows 8 ... but Only for New Apps

Years ago, while on a security road-show tour that was partially sponsored by Microsoft, I had a set of briefings at the software giant's headquarters, where I was shown then-future products such as "Monad" (which later became PowerShell) and Microsoft Update, which extended the Windows Update infrastructure to include other, non-Windows products from Microsoft as well as third-party drivers. I was told at the time that Microsoft Update/Windows Update would be later extended again, to support third-party application software, providing Windows users with a central location for all their software-update needs. And now it's happening, in Windows 8. In a blog post about Windows 8's Windows Update functionality this week, group program manager Farzana Rahman revealed that although legacy apps are on their own—"The wide variety of delivery mechanisms, installation tools, and overall approaches to updates across the full breadth of applications makes it impossible to push all updates through [Windows Update]"—new, Metro-style apps will be centrally updated through Windows Update, no matter who wrote them. Windows 8 will include "an integrated update service to help ensure apps are maintained in a consistent manner," he wrote. Yay!

Got $8,400 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? Then I've Got a Table(t) for You!

Microsoft's second-generation Surface table, the imaginatively named SUR40, is now available for prospective customers, and (reminiscent of an Apple product update) it's thinner, lighter, and less expensive than the version it's replacing. That said, it is a table. The SUR40 runs $8,400—a far cry from the $12,500 commanded by the first unit. It uses a thinner new Samsung display for less bulky design, and the sensors are built right into the panel. It can be mounted on the wall if you don't have the floor space, and it can be used vertically or horizontally. I know, it's a dream come true. But the Surface is still aimed at vertical businesses such as hotels and casinos, and not at consumers. Maybe the Surface 3 will be the table for the people.

Rumor Buster: Sorry, Haters, But Amazon Is Not Taking a Loss on the Kindle Fire

When Amazon announced its iPad-threatening Kindle Fire recently, the Apple-friendly press reacted in shock at the low-ball pricing. I mean, the Fire's $200 price tag is less than a third the cost of a mid-level iPad. Surely Amazon is taking a loss on each unit in a bid to gain market share. Nope. According to the firms iSuppli and UBM TechInsights, the averaged price of the Fire components is just $173, meaning that the online retailer is making a profit on each unit sold even at launch. And since this is Amazon, you can expect both the retail price and cost of components to come down dramatically as sales surge, too, so it's going to be a pretty profitable business going forward. It just goes to show you, you don't have to charge a heady premium for a fantastic bit of hardware.

You've Been Warned: Do Not Buy a RIM PlayBook, No Matter the Price

Staples and other retailers will be selling Research In Motion's (RIM's) disastrous PlayBook tablet on "Black Friday" (the day after Thanksgiving) for just $199, a replay of the earlier $99 fire sale for the equally disastrous HP/Palm TouchPad. As with the TouchPad, my advice is simple: Do not buy this hunk of junk. But this time, at least, you have an alternative, the Amazon Kindle Fire, which also costs $199 and will be supported with new apps and content for years and years to come. In fact, if you're going to buy a Fire, my advice is to not wait for Black Friday: Buy it now. There's already a few day's wait, and my guess is that the wait will get longer as we progress through the holidays. If you have any design on giving this thing as a gift, buy early. Heck, buy a few. They're inexpensive.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 Breaks More Sales Records

After last week's stunning opening day, in which Activision's Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 became the biggest-ever entertainment launch with $400 million in revenues in the first 24 hours of availability, it probably won't shock you to find out that the game title has gone on to break more records over the past week. The game made $775 million in its first five days, breaking the previous record, set by last year's Call of Duty: Black Ops, naturally, by over $100 million. But how does this compare to movies? The highest-performing movie of all time, over its first five days, was The Dark Knight, but that film earned only a paltry $203 million in that span, less than one-third the amount of Modern Warfare 3. Want a little more perspective? The overall movie industry generated $32 billion in 2010. But the overall video game industry generated $66 billion. Take that, Hollywood!

This Week, on the Windows Weekly Podcast

With Mary Jo traveling this week, Leo and I recorded a new episode of the Windows Weekly podcast on Thursday at the usual time. It should be available for download by the end of the weekend on iTunes, the Zune Marketplace, and wherever else quality podcasts are found, in both audio and video formats.

A section of the review of the Kindle Fire from T3:
The Kindle Fire does suffer a little in the engine room with the 512MB of RAM and a 1GHz dual-core processor meaning proceedings are often, by todays standards, somewhat sluggish.
'The accelerometer was slow and transitions between screens likewise. We often found video playback to be pixilated, there were also regular app crashes to contend with and the advertised battery life of 8-hours sounds ambitious to say the very least.
It was at times like this when we felt encouraged to return to the price point. This was never going to be a perfect device, but the warning signs are there.'
Apple refuse to put out rubbish. It seems others are less fussy.
If you want an inferior experience, well, you get what you pay for.

For those pointing to iSuppli and saying that Paul is wrong you are picking one number of two that have been published about the cost. UBM Technologies says the Fire is 143 and iSuppli has it at 209. The average of that is the 173 number that Paul reported. The actual numbers were left out of the article with only the average being reported (you call can jump to your own conclusions as to why they were left out)
What I find problematic is how that number was reported by Paul:
"According to the firms iSuppli and UBM TechInsights, the averaged price of the Fire components is just $173, meaning that the online retailer is making a profit on each unit sold even at launch. "
Reading that you would that think that UBM and iSuppli reported the number as it is clearly attributed to them. The fact is neither of them have reported the 173 number. The source of that number is actually Paul and Paul alone and it was dishonest on his part to try to attribute it to two groups. He should have reported the two numbers that the groups originally published and stated that the 173 numbers was him averaging the two. Claiming that Amazon is making a profit is just pure conjecture on his part.

@ModernDislocation - Wait, when did I say that about you? You assume that because it was in the same post that I was still talking about you? You must not have noticed the new paragraph. Like you on the target consumer, I have no opinion on the price. Amazon is free to charge what they want and subsidize with conten purchases. Paul's discussion on the cost was regarding components, just like when talking about the component costs of other devices that iSuppli tears down. It's pretty standard stuff. You'll read the same kinds of Comments all over the Internet. Yes, there was/is R&D costs, advertising costs, shipping, storage, and a slew of other costs involved...just like for all merchandise. One thing about Amazon though, they know how to manage all of that.
Now, about those cooties.............

The Kindle Fire has a way to go, but the price is very attractive to the average user. I think the crew that likes things to be a bit more leading edge will not be as impressed with this. Speaking as one who tried the Fire (just in the store) and owns a 1st gen iPad, there's no comparison. iPad wins out easily for my wants.
All that being said, the one thing that Amazon has that can and does compete with Apple is their ecosystem. If/when the Amazon tablet gets better during subsequent generations, this will be a very competitive device for that reason. Right now, I really have no qualms telling people who ask what I said above and saying that if you want it for light surfing, reading and movie watching without paying for the Apple name (and clearly better performance), this device is 100% right for you.
Of course, if I was infiniteloop, I would poo-poo all of that and "solution" way out of people's price range just to satisfy some strange urge to please a faceless corporation that is only out for the almighty dollar instead of looking at all of the facts and recommending a device suited to the situation.

@Fanboyssuck:
So, to paraphrase your rant:
The Fire's price point is attractive, but the device is not.
But it might get better in the future.
With the iPad, you're paying for the Apple brand, although it performs way better.
What it really boils down to, as with any product, is this:
It's simply all about value for money.
People clearly see the value in the iPad, otherwise it wouldn't outsell every other tablet combined.
If people see value in the Fire, fine. But let's not pretend that a sluggish, smaller screened, light-leaking, fuzzy screened device with a poorly sensitive input screen and short battery life, has the same value as an iPad.

"When Amazon announced its iPad killing Kindle Fire recently, the Apple-friendly press reacted in shock at the low-ball pricing. "
Yah, "iPad-killing", a descriptor that exists nowhere but in the mind of Paul, as does the vast press conspiracy.
Calling this thing an iPad-killer misses the point that it isn't even aimed at the same audience.
"Surely Amazon is taking a loss on each unit in a bid to gain market share. Nope. According to the firms iSuppli and UBM TechInsights, the averaged price of the Fire components is just $173, meaning that the online retailer is making a profit on each unit sold even at launch."
The estimates range from a low of $143 to a high of $203, so it isn't clear that Amazon makes any money on the hardware sales of this device. That's basically irrelevant, to "haters" and everyone else, since Amazon is primarily a.....wait for it....content provider! That's clearly what this device is for: To drive content sales.
If we lose the anti-Apple fetish for a moment, we might say instead:
It's a different device with different goals.
It can coexist just fine with the iPad.
It further fragments the Android tablet space.
If it sells well, which I think it will, it further restricts new entrants into the tablet space.

@-tayme
I read the "fair review" link you gave below.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/18/tech/gaming-gadgets/kindle-fire-review/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
It seemed to list all the same flaws and drawbacks of the Fire that were listed in the bad review link that was given by infiniteloop below.
http://www.marco.org/2011/11/17/kindle-fire-review
The only difference was that in the fair review, all the flaws were forgiven because of the $199 price tag. The other reviewer had higher standards and couldn't forgive the flaws.
I have noticed this theme in a lot of other fair and positive reviews.
Every single one lists many flaws yet totally forgives them.
As long as the people buying the Fire realise for $200 they are getting a very bottom end, very limited, very flawed 1.0 device.
If they think they are getting a cheap iPad 2, they will be sorely disappointed.

-Tayme
To be clear, you would rather keep changing the subject than show how what I said was wrong about the Fire or offer your evidence for how I am an Apple Loyalist.
Since you offered no argument before and have declined to do so when asked directly I will assume you have none.
I have no real opinion of the Fire has I have not used one nor have I really thought about the intended market. That is why I stuck with the things I had an opinion on. First was your use of personal attacks despite claims to be level headed and second was Paul's comments about the cost of the Fire. You said that I was coming out against it due to brand loyalty based on my comment (which was about price and gave no opinion about the actual device) so you did in fact chime in on the price conversation since your comment about me being "against" it was based on a comment I made about component price.
Now, do you want to actually back up what you are saying or keep chaining to the subject to things irrelevant things like your ownership of a MBP?

-Tayme
Expanding the quote to "you all" means that I am still included in the group you are addressing. So, you were addressing me with the brand loyalist comment. So, I will ask you again, can you dispense with the personal attacks and back it up. I am not holding my breath on that one.
I will take your dropping the price conversation as tacit admission that Paul was just incorrect in his pricing/profit assertions.
You are free to dwell on me mocking your behavior all you want. It doesn't bother me a bit.

@chuck - That's not surprising, really. It looks like Android is on the rise, too. This statement explains it pretty well "The shift is due more to the rise in popularity of competing smartphones, rather than the decline of the BlackBerry, according to iPass." People like to use the same tools at work and home, which is why Windows will continue to enjoy a "lead" in PC operating systems in business and at home.

@infiniteloop - You really are bothered by all of this, aren't you? I guess trolling has a little bit of a backlash. When you can discuss things intelligently, maybe you'll be taken as seriousLY as you seem to be taking it.
Until then, the card table in the corner is where the children sit.

First,
http://blogs.computerworld.com/19300/apple_amazon_have_won_the_tablet_wars
And on this, "So, if we lose the anti-anything but Apple fetish for a moment, we should conclude that If it is a different device with different goals than the iPad, is it not also a diferent device with different goals from other Android tablets (save the nook color and nook tablet)?"
Let me clarify. I think the Fire is certainly aimed at a different market, different audience and designed with different goals than the iPad; it's to sell Amazon content. Duh. It overlaps some with other Android devices, but you're right, not much with most of them. I do think it adds to the Android fragmentation, but this may be irrelevant, since Amazon takes some pains to hide the fact that it even IS an Android device.
Elsewhere I read a post describing the Android buyers as "geeks and bargain shoppers". No offense to the geeks (I qualify!), but I think that's accurate. The Fire may sell just fine to the bargain shoppers, but I think it's too underpowered and limited to appeal to the Android-geek crowd....or to be a threat to the iPad. "iPad Killer" is typical Thurrott hyperbole about Apple.
And this from BananaJR nails it, "The Fire is not so much a threat to the iPad as both the iPad and the Fire are a combined threat to a Windows Tablet much in the same way Android Phone's and the iPhone leave no room for Windows Phone."
Exactly. And Windows Tablet is still a year away. Not good for Redmond.

@chuck - I agree with most of what you said in your longer post...but I have to point out one thing...
You said: "Calling this thing an iPad-killer misses the point that it isn't even aimed at the same audience."
Then went on to say: "It's a different device with different goals.
It can coexist just fine with the iPad."
And concluded with: "It further fragments the Android tablet space.
If it sells well, which I think it will, it further restricts new entrants into the tablet space."
Seems like a bit of a circle to me. So, if we lose the anti-anything but Apple fetish for a moment, we should conclude that If it is a different device with different goals than the iPad, is it not also a diferent device with different goals from other Android tablets (save the nook color and nook tablet)?

"I've been reading you since the early-mid 90s, but now get Enterprise IT news and info elsewhere. It's a shame that you have lost track of that part of what you used to have a good grasp of."
That's a good point. Here's a bit of interesting Enterprise news: Businesses now buy more iPhones than Blackberries. I sure didn't see that one coming.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mobiledia/2011/11/18/iphone-beats-blackberry-in-business/

@ModernDislocation - Are you one of those people that refers to them self in the plural? You must not have noticed where I said "loyalistS" and you also conveniently ended your quote "It seems that you..." a bit early. The very next word was ALL.
Regarding cooties, I dwell on it because it was a bit disturbing to see a breakdown like that. Go back and look at it. You are right, it was funny...in a sad sort of way.

@ModernDislocation - I have nothing to be backed into a corner over, yes I did call you a troll, and I didn't own up to being a troll...just to trolling you. And it was way too easy!
New paragraph...not directed at anyone except Paul, so you can all relax. Thats what paragraphs are for...starting new thoughts. I've noticed that your columns here have turned into consumer electronics columns rather than enterprise IT columns. I've been reading you since the early-mid 90s, but now get Enterprise IT news and info elsewhere. It's a shame that you have lost track of that part of what you used to have a good grasp of.

The drumbeat here has always been that Android represents a competiive threat against Apple. Windows Phone is also represented as a fresh innovative answer to the tired Apple product. The reality is that the real competitive pressure from Android is on Microsoft. Apple does not sell it's OS to other hardware manufacures. Google does and in fact does not charge for it. And Google provides Android to the same hardware manufactures that Microsoft needs and on a much faster update cycle. It's no wonder that Microsoft is aggressively challenging the patent validity of Android as it undercuts Microsoft in the same way IE undercut Netscape.
The Fire is not so much a threat to the iPad as both the iPad and the Fire are a combined threat to a Windows Tablet much in the same way Android Phone's and the iPhone leave no room for Windows Phone. Or put another way it wasn't German engineered luxury cars like BMW and Mercedes that put the hurt on the American Automobile industry, it was the affordable effiecient Japanese cars that under cut the bloated SUV and Sedan models from Ford and GM.

Re: Amazon not making a loss.
According to iSuppli the cost of components for the Kindle Fire is $202.
http://www.techradar.com/news/mobile-computing/tablets/amazon-kindle-fire-costs-202-to-make-1041948
However even going with Paul's distorted reality number
Cost of components = $173
Cost of device = $199
So Amazon makes $26 on the component costs of the device.
It then has to be assembled, packaged, distributed and marketed.
Still think Amazon is making anything on this?

-Tayme
Your comment started as being directed to me and had the following quote:
"It's telling that the most ardent Apple loyalists come out so strongly against any device that *might* challenge something that Apple produces. It seems that you are all nervous about something. "
You see that part where is says "It seems that you..." ?
That is how I determined it was directed to me as the post was directed at me there is no reasonable reading of what you said and that not being directed at me.
Contrary to what you say Paul's comments were not limited to components as you state. The post was claiming Amazon wasn't making a profit or selling the Fire at a loss and he used component price to argue that they were not selling it for a loss. I don't know if they are or aren't but neither does Paul despite his claims that they are. In addition, as I pointed out in the post below, his stated component cost for the Fire is something he came up with and is not reported anywhere else.
You are welcome to defend his claims about profit and his suspect component if you choose but doing so would be venturing into a world lacking in fact.
You seem to be really dwelling on the cooties thing. Yeah, I returned you name calling because that is the came you want to play. To my credit "cooties" is way funnier than implying someone is a kid.

-Tayme
What is telling is your use of ad hominem attacks. Rather than address what I said about price you just accuse me of taking my opinion due to brand loyalty. Please, rather than go after me why not argue against the points I have made? It should be easy given that I am just an "Apple loyalists" right? So come on, show me how I am incorrect in pointing out that there are more than component costs to the Fire?
Also, I challenge you to show the argument that I am a brand loyalist? Please, show how you came to this conclusion? Because I point out you are hypocrite? Because out point out that you protect Paul no matter how absurd what he says is? If arguing for reason is what makes a person a Apple Fanatic than sign me up, but if that is the case you are going to have to stop calling Infinite a loyalist because he doesn't argue for reason any more than you or Paul.

Yep, good ol Tayme who doesn't lower himself to calling names, except when he does.
As for the actual cost of the Fire. It is surprising that Paul thinks that only components go into the cost of product. Assembly, shipping, storage, packaging, and support don't exist of the Fire? Amazon has pulled off an impressive feat if managed to figure out how to bring those things to zero.

@ModernDislocation - I'm not sure that I've ever claimed that...but ok. Are you going to go on another cootie rant?
It's telling that the most ardent Apple loyalists come out so strongly against any device that *might* challenge something that Apple produces. It seems that you are all nervous about something.
My weekend starts now! Enjoy yours!

The $200 price tag of the Kindle Fire is attractive, but I don't think that anyone thinks that this device was intended to go into direct head-to-head competition against the iPad. The iPad is undoubtedly a more powerful and versatile device, albeit at a higher price tag.
It seems that the major player here who should be most concerned about the appearance of the Kindle Fire is Microsoft. All the niches for new tablet-class products are quickly being filled up. Where does that leave Microsoft's tablet aspirations, especially now that we read here that WIndows 8 may be delayed until 2013? Seems like it's going to be another case of "too little, too late" for Microsoft.

@ModernDislocation - Since I wasn't directing my comment at you, even though you seem to think I did and oddly think that you know what I mean by what I post, I have nothing to "back up". I'll drop this conversation now, it's boring and I have things to do.

I don't think Steve Ballmer has anything to worry about as long as Bill Gates is chairman at MS. Having said that, I think it's time for Steve B to step aside & let someone else have a go. As for the Kindle Fire, I disagree with infiniteloop. It's not rubbish, just immature; it will improve. Also, the ipad & KF are aimed at 2 different types of consumers, I believe.

@ModernDislocation - I figured that you'd be on the rampage, so I logged in from my home computer - a MBP, by the way - while planning a few things to take care of tonight.
I hadn't discussed the cost of the Fire but I had discussed the target consumer. Maybe you should have addressed that one while protecting infiniteloop and before calling me out for "going after you". Double standard much? Too obvious there, Bud!

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