Robin Cook's speech in Tokyo yesterday extolling its potential benefits is an important event in the government's long and tortuous journey towards joining the euro. What has changed is not the policy itself - to join some time after the next election if the conditions are right - but the government's willingness to extol it in public. Ministers have been very subdued recently for the simple reason that the euro was not doing well. There was no political mileage in praising it when Europe's economy was stagnant and the euro collapsing. Now things are changing. Europe is emerging from recession and the euro has recovered some dignity.

But it is vital to distinguish cause from effect. The economy of euroland is not recovering because of the success of the euro. Rather, a long delayed cyclical recovery is providing a better environment in which to be positive about it. The only way the euro has directly contributed to the recovery is that its fall (never intended in the first place) has helped to boost exports. Yet we need to recognise here a sea change in politics as well as in economics. Barring unforseen circumstances, Europe is embarking on what could be a sustained recovery. There is positive evidence of recovery in Germany and France (helped by employment boosting measures) and even in Italy. Europe as a whole has a trade surplus (compared with a US deficit of nearly $300bn), very low inflation and a pool of 10% unemployed. All this could facilitate expansion for some years before there is any danger of overheating. The US still has huge technological advantages, but Europe has understated macro-economic strengths compared to the US, which is now showing signs of flagging after over eight years of continuous growth. Over 90% of Europe's trade is internal, so it could grow as a result of an old fashioned expansion of demand.

On top of that, there are signs that the internet explosion is generating new companies across Europe. Today the London-based First Tuesday group, which has acted as the medium for an explosion of web start-up companies in the UK, is orchestrating simultaneous "networking" meetings for would-be entrepreneurs across Europe. If all goes well, Europe's economy could be expanding faster than that of the US in 18 months time. It won't have much to do with the euro - but it will provide a fertile ground for claims that it has.