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Tuesday, January 21

The big story through Thursday will be the Arctic chill & dangerous wind chills, hence a wind chill advisory has been posted for all of WNY & the Finger Lakes for tonight & Wednesday morning for wind chill readings that will likely average between -20 & -10 & possibly dip to -25 at times! A brisk northerly wind will blow on the backside of the developing nor'easter affecting the big cities tonight into Wednesday. The cold, Arctic flow will not only produce the nasty wind chills, but also provide us with a little lake snow, especially around & north of the Thruway through Thursday. The lake snow will not add up to much, but as you can see in the graphic above, around & north of I-90, a 1 to 3" snowfall is expected through Wednesday, while a bit more will fall in spots near Rt. 104 to the lake shore, & just a coating to an inch or so across the Finger Lakes south. Lake snows will probably flare up a little more so later Wednesday night into Thursday, as a little weakening system slides just to the south, which will likely provide most of us with a minor accumulation for late Wednesday night through Thursday.

The winds will then become more westerly to southwesterly late Thursday night & especially Friday, which will shift the lake snows out of here & east & eventually northeast of Lake Ontario in advance of the next Arctic front due to blast through later Saturday/early Saturday night. Ahead & with the Arctic front late Friday night into Saturday, a solid 1 to 3 or 4" snowfall looks to be probable, before significant lake snows quite possibly set up Saturday night into Sunday close to, or in the Greater Rochester area. This is something we will have to watch closely over the coming days. Either way, it will be brisk & bitter again later Saturday night into Sunday & right through at least the first part of next week! What a stretch to say the least! At this point, no big storms appear to be on the horizon through the next week or so, but this could change so stay tuned for updates during the period.

The latest Euro model run has 850 mb winds briefly exceeding 60 mph over WNY for the late week system. Gusts of that magnitude mixing down to the surface would whip our "solid 1 to 3 or 4" snowfall" into a frenzy of whiteouts. I have no way of telling whether or not that will happen, maybe an expert could provide input on that.

The NWS out of Buffalo still talks about a significant snow/wind event Friday night and Saturday and then significant lake effect on a NW flow last Sunday through mid-next week. What do you all think??

A POWERFUL UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC INTO JAMES BAY WILLREINFORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION THIS COMINGWEEKEND. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A POTENT SHORTWAVEWILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY...SPAWNING A DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM NORTHERNONTARIO ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND INTO QUEBEC. MODEL CONSENSUSSUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITIONWITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FOR APOTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND/SNOW EVENT TO UNFOLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SHOT OFBITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTALPASSAGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH VERY COLDTEMPERATURES SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIALTO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWSEAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO STARTING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTINGINTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPSTREAMCONNECTIONS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUGGESTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCEARE REALIZED. ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLYHAMPERED BY THE ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKE.

I think the significant lake effect will be restricted to the favored WNW flow areas well east of Rochester (think Oswego, southern Tug Hill region). The storm system itself will be of greater concern. It has shifted south a bit and a little stronger on the 18z GFS, compared to the 12z run.

Everyone should just be happy we have harsh winter until further notice. At least we have an ample amount of opportunities for snow for weeks to come... And I believe this weekend is going to be extremely snowy and warrant warnings of some sort.

Snowy? Yes, for sure. Extremely snowy? Nary a chance I'm afraid. Airmass is too dry, bigger concern will be the wind producing low visibilities from blowing and drifting snow, and low wind chills. Our chances of a substantial snowfall are virtually zilch until the subtropical jet cranks up again by the end of the month. Strong hints of a moderating trend by then, which may turn out to be a good thing if you like snow.

The NWS out of BUffalo keeps talking about Blizzard conditions here Friday night and Saturday but our local mets do not even mention the possibility. Why? Is the NWS over-exagerating the situation. Seems odd.

Nothing big coming Snowdog sit back and relax. Hope as usual the push back date now for February will bring snow storm opportunities. I doubt it but that is what has happened the last several winters. The "Experts" keep saying the pattern change is coming that will lead to snowy set-ups. However they push it back every two weeks to keep you involved then before you know it we are in late March and well below our seasonal snowfall average. it is happening again this year the difference is we were fooled with a strong first 8 days of January. The only thing this winter will be remembered for is the coldest since 1994 and that stinks.

Hello Captain Negative! I believe the latest GFS 12Z puts in a 4-8 range snowfall by Monday if I am reading correctly? So do not give up hope yet! Maybe more on an expert can verify and also let us know what it says about cold temps next week?

To me the EURO looks to take a strong LP through northern NY into Maine. I think there will a good shot at LES snow in some places. Where I am not sure and how much not because I am not an expert. Wonder what the News 8 team thinks about Monday/Tuesday timeframe. I do believe this LP will usher severe cold into out area for Mon-Weds.

I am no weather expert, but I believe this Saturday will be a day not good for driving. Though the temperatures will moderate a bit, the winds will be fierce with frequent white outs and near Blizzard conditions. I know some on this blog will say, what is he or she talking about.When Saturday comes, and this happens, remember you saw it on this blog first!

Near Blizzard conditions; when you do feel travel advisories will be issued, especially for folks who have plans for Saturday. People need to know sooner rather than later so that plans can be changed and arrangemens made. Why is no one talking about this yet!

The NWS is NOT hyping the Saturday system. Apparently that "other channel" believes a storm can only be bad if it drops a lot of snow. We will get strong enough winds to whip the existing snowpack into frequent whiteouts. All it takes is a light falling snow to exacerbate that problem much further. There could also be a burst of heavier snow as the arctic front approaches, and that may be when the toughest conditions occur. Looks like another interesting system will follow a few days later, although that one may be less wind and more snow.

Very fine LES has been falling all last night and on and off all day in Hamlin. I still consider this a VERY wintery pattern. If we get 1-2 inches of widespread synoptic snow tonight a few more inches of LES tonight through Thursday night and a burst of 1-3 with the front combined with high wind warning criteria winds, WE WILL HAVE BIG TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN HAMLIN!!!!! We will see?

"AT A MINIMUM WE SHOULD SEE HIGH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH GALES ON THE PORTIONS OF THE LAKES THAT ARE NOT FROZEN AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER AM NOT CERTAIN WE WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS AS THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT OFTEN CONTRIBUTES TO THESE HIGH WIND EVENTS DOESN`T QUITE LINE UP WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT QUITE THERE TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE OTHER BIG ISSUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST AND ITS OVERLAP WITH THE WIND FORECAST DISCUSSED ABOVE. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DYNAMICS AT WORK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN...PV ADVECTION ALOFT...ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ETC...THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE BIG ISSUE IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS DROPPING DOWN OUT OF THE ARCTIC. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ERIE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE LAKE IS ALMOST COMPLETELY FROZEN OVER AT THIS POINT. AT LEAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK THE THOUGH IS THAT ANY WINTER HEADLINES THAT WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES RATHER THAN ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING TO GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES THIS FAR OUT."

So the story remains the same as it has been for the past several days: not much snow but a lot of wind, still a significant impact due to blowing snow. Also found this:

"MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT MAY BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS RETURNING...AT LEAST TO UNFROZEN LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY."

The most important tidbit:

"A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE"

No professional should ever forget to mention that shortwaves are usually associated with shortwaves.

could you explain how Watertown was -35 below last night being fairly close to lake Ontario and not too high in elevation, yet Mt Washington, who almost always has most of the time the coldest temperatures in the North East and is at 6200 ft had 'just' -22 degrees. That seems to make no sense.

Also in situations with cold air and light winds, the coldest air in mountainous areas tends to pool in valley locations instead of remaining at the highest mountain tops, because cold air is heavy and tends to sink.

Don't forget about cold air drainage off Tug Hill. With a deep snowpack and up to 2100' in elevation, it gets pretty cold up there and that air drains into the Black River Valley and areas south to Pulaski and north to Watertown. I once left here (ROC) and it was 7 or 8 F…by the time I drove through Pulaski, it was -20 F! It then "warmed" back up to 0 F once I started climbing in elevation. Its a strange phenomenon.

Ok. I am sorry, but I am officially frustrated with this lack of snow over the past few weeks. The lake effect misses us. These clippers fall apart before they get here. We have all this cold air and still no storms. We may end this month below normal in snowfall. 1-3, per Scott for Saturday-More wimpy stuff. Yike!!!!! A total waste of cold air. Ok, I am ready to hear everyone say I am a complainer..

Were you honestly expecting anything other than 1-3 inches? That's been the story for like 4 days now, but it promises to be an eventful 1-3 inches at the very least. I can understand the frustration though, not much of note has happened here for awhile besides obnoxious cold. Storm track has been too far away to bring a widespread substantial snow and the cold air has been too dry to support big lake effect. There is a light at the end of the tunnel though: a moderating trend should begin by the middle of next week and bring the mean storm track closer to us.

Not really a good idea to have expectations on seasonal snowfall, too much of a crapshoot. We may very well finish far above normal pending February and March. Or we may get very little from here on out and end up far below normal. Or we may finish right around average. Who really knows at this point? Still lots of winter remaining.

Snowdog - What is it about snow that makes you so happy? Take a ride out to my place in Wayne County and drive each morning in "only" one inch of snow in the brutal cold and your drive on 104 is like a parking lot. Try doing it at 4AM en route to the hospital to care for the sick. Snow and cold are deadly pal - just like your constant pessimism.

Funny the differences between Scott and KW on the forecasts at 11 last night. Big differences with predicted temps next week. Scott much more conservative in fact not even below zero while our other friend minus 5 and said those numbers could be conservative. Really NBD this week and next as far as snow and really cold because their has been no winds.

Also funny as to how many are talking about Saturday, blizzard conditions; and none of the Stations have even mentioned it. How do they expect you to prepare for such conditions and possible cancel events and activities.

If you read the latest NWS discussion, they talk about the winds trending down a bit from what was expected, and with only 1-3 of snow, they don't expect any widespread blizzard conditions. i think this is why you are not seeing other outlets talking about it, because it really won't be a huge deal, but the normal blowing and drifting of snow that we are used to in WNY will occur on Saturday i;m sure. We all should know how to drive in it by now so take it slow or don't go at all and things will be fine. I am a little dissapointed that i bought into the NWS hype earlier in the weak about some huge bomb of a low etc, and now as usual it has weakened somewhat. Its my own fault for getting my hopes up, can;t blame mother nature or anything else.

We still have a few days for this thing to trend stronger again. I've seen numerous instances like this where a wind event trends weaker in modeling until a few days beforehand, only to trend stronger leading up to the event. Still should be an interesting storm to follow regardless of trends, as I'm certain we won't see the strong winds trend away completely.

The intensity of next week's cold outbreak hinges a good deal on the strength of the preceding storm system. We may very well have a low of -5 conservatively at some point if a Euro-type powerhouse storm comes to fruition, as it would be able to draw cold air down more vigorously. A weaker GFS-type solution would result in less intense cold, with the other models falling in between the two.

How come still nothing from local weather people. If there is a blizzard expected for Saturday, we all need to know so that events and activities can be cancelled as they will be travel advisories, etc. Frustrating in trying to determine if events should be cancelled.

NWS missed another chance to put Monroe and Orleans in LES advisories or warnings. Over 6 inches in Northeast Hamlin and currently snowing moderate to heavy with the breeze beginning to picking up. Could be a NASTY night on the north side tonight.

It seems this year that the Lake effect has been confined to North of Route 104 and not North of the Thruway. Why is that? With a NW wind that normally would give North of the Thruway significant lake snow. The Lake snow just does not move South this year.

Snowdog, I hear you man. I live in Chili and have to admit that I am a little jealous the winds aren't a bit stronger to push a decent band further inland. However, we have plenty of winter left and I'm sure everyone will see there fair share of snow beginning this weekend and onward. No need to throw in the towel...

Find it funny how Scott and KW not even mentioning wind chill values in the morning. Maybe they have been asked by schools to tone the cold down. 13 has minus 15 to minus 25 wind chills tom on their website. Not sure why it has been glossed over because minus 15 to minus 25 is dangerous.

Ok my bad just wondering. I did not hear it on the earlier newscast. just think there seems to be more wind than the last 2 nights. With air temps at zero and winds stronger seems like wind chills could be a tad dangerous tomorrow. Thanks for update.

THE CULPRIT FOR THE SHIFTING LAKE BANDS WILL BE YET ANOTHER CLIPPERROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER AGREEMENT ONTHE STRENGTH/LOCATION/TIMING OF THIS CLOSED LOW...BRINGING IT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

You make it sound as if it is a conspiracy between mother nature and RGE. This blog is a joke when there is no huge storm on the horizon, just a place where people complain and whine which isn't going to change anything. I'm done for a while.

thanks for the pep talk! LOL I needed that. I just hate when the troll comes on and says winter is over, and also people constantly acting like its the end of the world when the models don't show anything etc. it gets old after a while. What i enjoy reading is when HP, weather guy, and other veterans of the blog give their two sense because that is how I stay one step ahead. If we waited for the tv forecast to come out we would be right on top of these storms. I like knowing about stuff and following it as it evolves, or in some cases unfortunately fizzles out.

Does anyone know what the models are now saying about the extreme cold early next week? It looks again like there is disagreement between our own local mets? Just wondering what Weatherguy or HP think?

I think Monday night through Wednesday could be the coldest air we will see this winter. Depending on where the High sets up, I think we could break some record lows... I'm sure Scott/News 8 will weigh in as we get closer.

Based on where we will end up for snow total at the end of January and snow tally's for November and December, this winter very closely resembles the winter of 55-56 where we had 121" and winter of 91-92 where we had 110." I still say over 100" for the season is highly likely and will likely end around 110"-120."

This will put us nicely above our average of 93" (median 89") since the winter of 40-41.