Year in Review: On the face of it, Holland's rookie campaign looks like a failure. His 8-13 record (ouch) and 6.12 ERA (double ouch) aren't particularly encouraging, even for the sabermetrically inclined. But before you go discounting the young lefty, consider the following analysis by FanGraphs' own Dave Cameron from Sept. 25: "Holland is the 20th rookie pitcher in baseball history to throw at least 120 innings and post a BB/9 below 3.5 and a K/9 above 7.0. Of the 20 pitchers, only three others besides Holland have posted a below average ERA during that rookie season – John Danks in 2007, James Shields in 2006, and Roger Clemens in 1984." Holland actually finished with a K/9 of 6.96, but you get the point.

The Year Ahead: In the same post, Cameron goes on to cite the improvements each of those pitchers saw in their respective sophomore campaigns: "Danks saw his ERA drop from 5.50 to 3.32. Shields went from 4.84 to 3.85. Clemens went from 4.32 to 3.29. All of them knocked a run per game off their ERA totals the following year." Ideally, like Danks, Holland's improvement will be more in the vicinity of two runs. It's a possibility: his 14.9% HR/FB rate was on the high side, and a study by Dan Turkenkopf of Hardball Times suggests that the Ballpark at Arlington has actually shown HR/FB rates a touch below league average. Furthermore, according to Minor League Splits, Holland actually posted a career minor league ground-ball rate of 45.9% – higher than the 41.5% against him over his first 138 major league innings. Given similar rates, 10+ wins and about 150 strikeouts are both distinct possibilities. (Carson Cistulli)

Profile: In last year's profile, we noted that -- owing to his component stats (strikeouts, walks, etc.) -- that Holland's unsightly 6.12 ERA from 2009 would almost definitely drop in 2010, and that's exactly what it did. Despite posting almost the exact same xFIP (4.38 in 2009, 4.40 last year), Holland's ERA dropped over two runs, to 4.08. That's a perfectly respectable line from a pitcher in his age-23 season. The reason it won't be regarded as something better, though, is that the young lefty was limited to just 57.1 innings between injury (shoulder, knee) and minor-league work. Holland returned in mid-August, however, to make six starts and nine overall appearances en route to a 38:18 K:BB and just two homers allowed in his last 38 innings. He enters 2011 as the likely No. 3 or 4 starter for the Rangers and should be a value on draft day. (Carson Cistulli)

Profile: Holland enjoyed a strong season in his first full year in the Rangers rotation. Though his strikeout and walk rates were solid, yet unspectacular, his Minor League record provides some optimism that there is some additional upside. He induced an above-league-average rate of ground balls, which is important given that he calls The Ballpark at Arlington home. The most intriguing observation in Holland’s statistical profile is the spike in his average fastball velocity. It jumped 2.1 miles per hour from 2010, ranking him second among all qualified left-handed starters last year, behind only David Price. Though surprisingly this had no apparent impact on his strikeout or swinging strike rates, it does provide further reason to expect a rise in strikeout rate next season. (Mike Podhorzer)

The Quick Opinion: Holland displayed a solid mix of skills during his first full year in the Rangers rotation, posting above average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. A large spike in fastball velocity, along with a strong Minor League record, provides plenty of optimism for continued growth next season.

Profile: At least for his fantasy stock's sake, Holland really needs a change of scenery. In 284.2 career innings at The Ballpark In Arlington, Holland has served up 48 home runs and 315 hits; in just one less out away from home, Holland has allowed 10 fewer home runs and 52 fewer hits. Blame the high fastballs if you want to focus on process, but at this point, it would take a metamorphosis in his command to change the fly-ball results. Holland has consistently been about a run to a run-and-a-half better on the road than at Arlington, which would give him mid-3.00s ERA upside. As is, he's likely to run something in the low-4.00s without the strikeout stuff needed to elevate him into the top or even middle tier of fantasy pitchers. (Jack Moore)

The Quick Opinion: Be ready to pounce on Holland if the Rangers move him. In Texas, though, his susceptibility to home runs reduces him to fantasy mediocrity.

Profile: It might surprise you to discover that Derek Holland outperformed (in wins above replacement) the likes of David Price, Doug Fister, Jon Lester, and Hisashi Iwakuma. The Rangers' young starter didn't light up the win column but he pitched to a 3.42 ERA (3.44 FIP) with 21.1% strikeout rate which generated darn near 200 K's on the season. Holland induced more swings outside the strike zone and less contact on those swings than any point in his career, and his swinging strike rate of 10% was also a career high. His success is in large part wrapped up in his increased use of his excellent slider when ahead in the count (generating a 37% whiff rate) and his ability to generally stay out of the middle of the zone in all counts. One knock would be his walk rate which sat at 7.2% and was in large part why he barely broke 1.30 on his WHIP. Entering his age 27 season with a pretty stacked Texas Ranger lineup, he should have every opportunity to rack up more wins and given his ability to pitch to his strengths, he ought to be able to reproduce his success from 2013. Holland isn't a world beater, but in standard leagues, he would be a nice number three starter with some upside. Too bad he'll miss half the season after having microfracture surgyer on his knee. Blame his dog. (Michael Barr)

The Quick Opinion: Don't mistake Derek Holland for a fantasy ace. He gives up too many hits and walks too many opposing batters to provide plus contributions in ERA and WHIP. But he should be able to give you a 3.60-3.70 ERA with a WHIP around 1.25-ish, which ain't too bad considering he would throw in 175 strikeouts and double digit wins in a full season. Now that he's out half the season, he's a bench play, a stash for later. Still relevant.

Profile: Derek Holland missed most of the 2014 after a freak injury -- his hitman dog took him out at the knees -- but the left-hander was excellent upon his return. Holland improved his swinging strike percentage for the third straight season, walked just five batters in five starts, and did not give up a home run. Holland’s 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP were by far career bests, and while he won’t be repeating such a spectacular stint, career bests aren't usually bad indicator. Holland enters his age-28 season playing for a team that should be better than last year, so even as pitching in the Texas heat may harm some stats, it could help keep wins on the table. Don’t expect to be smitten with Holland’s performance, but you can count on him as a relatively durable starter with a decent strikeout rate, and a solid ERA and WHIP; combine all that, and you’ve got yourself a guy worthy of a mid-round draft pick in standard mixed leagues. (Zach Sanders)

The Quick Opinion: Holland was excellent in his return from a freak injury last season. Don’t expect the same sterling production, but expect enough to be worthy of a mid-round selection in mixed leagues.

Profile: Who is Derek Holland? In 2012, he threw 175.1 innings and looked pretty awful. His 4.67 ERA was backed by peripherals that match, though some bad home run luck (or maybe just a bad home run rate park for pitching?) may have made things look worse. In 2013, his strikeout rate ticked up from 20% to 21%, he cut the home run per fly ball rate from 15% to 9% and even brought down his fly ball rate. Then he was hurt. In the 95.2 IP he has thrown since the start of 2014, his fly ball rate and home run per fly ball rate have split the difference between his good and bad years, but his strikeout rate has dropped (though his walk rate dropped too). There may be a fantasy owner or two out there who can squint and see a pitcher capable of striking out 21%, walking under 6%, limiting fly balls and avoiding home runs -- but I won't be that owner. Even when Holland avoided homers, his hard-hit rate was ugly and he has not shown a real aptitude for inducing soft contact since 2011. Someone, somewhere will hype Holland as finally healthy and ready to perform in 2015 -- don't buy the hype. (Chad Young)

The Quick Opinion: Holland is a prime "best shape of his life" candidate this spring, and you will almost definitely hear about how he is finally healthy and ready to show what he can do. Don't give into the hype.

Profile: Holland is now three full seasons removed from his last (only?) good season. In the meantime, his skills have plunged while his ERA and WHIP have soared. Those with the faint hope of a resurgence were no doubt hoping the Holland-to-Pittsburgh rumors would come to fruition, but instead he landed with the White Sox which offers much less promise, though perhaps pitching coach Don Cooper has some ideas on how to fix him. Perhaps a role change is his next step if he can’t recapture some success in the rotation, but he is a long shot to return any fantasy value at this point. (Paul Sporer)

The Quick Opinion: Holland’s strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons and it wasn’t high enough to really sustain any drop and still be a positive. His ERA has approached 5.00 each of the last two years and he’s unlikely to be helped by a move to the White Sox. Relief could be in his future. Hard pass in all formats.

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