Zimbabwe's voters' roll: An analysis - RAU

Organisation says there are well over 1m deceased or departed people on roll

KEY STATISTICS FROM THE JUNE 2013 VOTERS' ROLL

Governance Unit, Research & Advocacy Unit [RAU]

2 July 2013

Background

The Research and Advocacy Unit, RAU, is in the process of preparing a report on the state of the Voters' Roll as it was as of 1st June, 20131. However, with elections pending, the exigencies of the situation demand that the key statistics, on which the report will be based, are released without delay. These statistics are of importance to all those concerned to ensure that the elections are conducted freely and fairly and with regard to accepted democratic standards. The statistics appear in the Tables set out below, and, although appearing with little accompanying comment, in most instances speak for themselves.

Demographics

RAU's analysis of the Voters' Roll has been facilitated by the release of the preliminary results of the 2012 census. However, these results do not disclose the statistic of prime importance here, the number of adults in Zimbabwe as indicated by ages of 18 years or more. The analysis has thus proceeded on the basis of the percentages of the population in each age band supplied by Zimstat (the body which conducts the census) and used by Zimstat to calculate data in a 2012 survey on Health and Demographics in Zimbabwe.2 Zimstat is of the view that these percentages have not changed significantly in the few years since that survey, a view supported by the fact that the census shows that Zimbabwe has a low growth rate of 1.1%.3

The number of adults (and thus potentially eligible voters) in the 15 - 19 age band has been determined by calculating two-fifths of the total. It is believed that the number thus arrived at is

sufficiently accurate for present purposes.

Table 1 shows the number of adults in each age band according to the census, compared with the number of people in those age bands registered as voters. The final column shows the percentage of the adult population registered as voters.

Table 1: Comparison of 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll by Age Band

Age Bands

Adult Population[Census 2012]

Voter Population[Voters' Roll June 2013]

NumericalDifference

%Registered

18 - 19

524,142

46,506

477,636

8.87%

20 - 24

1,154,669

225,787

928,882

19.55%

25 - 29

1,063,852

549,946

513,906

51.69%

30 - 34

830,324

881,149

-50,825

106.12%

35 - 39

674,638

899,362

-224,724

133.31%

40 - 44

467,057

759,189

-292,132

162.55%

45 - 49

363,267

48,0961

-117,694

132.40%

50 - 54

389,214

463,578

-74,364

119.11%

55 - 59

337,319

390,734

-53,415

115.84%

60 - 64

259,476

296,487

-37,011

114.26%

65 - 69

181,633

217,402

-35,769

119.69%

70 - 74

129,738

193,434

-63,696

149.10%

75 - 79

116,764

128,577

-11,813

110.12%

80 +

155,686

341,003

-185,317

219.03%

TOTALS

6,647,779

5,874,115

773,664

88.36%

The same data is represented below graphically for ease of understanding.

Figure 1: Comparison of 2012 Census and 2013 Voters' Roll by Age Band

IMAGE

In an ideal situation, all those who ought to be registered as voters are, and those who ought not to be, such as those deceased, are not. Although the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission took special steps to facilitate registration before the production of the June roll analysed here, and although nearly 300,000 deceased people were reported to have been removed from the roll in the months immediately preceding its compilation, Table 1 shows a large disjuncture between the ideal and the actual.

Very few adults aged under 30 years are registered. This is most marked in the 18 -19 age band, where only 8% are registered. In numerical terms, this means that a total of 1,920,424 people under the age of 30 ought to be registered as voters but are not.4 This is almost 29% of the total adult population of 6,647,779. Since there are unregistered people in the other age bands, the total percentage of the entire adult population who ought to be registered as voters but are not, is considerably higher than 29%.

The "under-registration" in these other age bands is concealed by "over-registration" in all of the age bands from 30 years and above. If the under-registration in these bands were to be taken into account, as it ought to be, the percentages of over-registration shown in Table 1 would increase. It should also be noted that the over-registration figures assume a 100% registration rate, which is improbable. The percentages of over-registration will increase in direct proportion to the extent that the registration rate is less than 100%.

Even without considering these factors, however, Table 1 indicates that the number of registered voters exceeds the population of Zimbabwe, in all age bands of 30 and above, by a considerable margin. This is most notable in the 40 - 44 age group (162%) and the 80+ age group (219%). In the former, some of the over-registration may be explained by people who are registered as voters, but were absent from the country during the census count, that is, are part of Zimbabwe's diaspora. The latter group most probably represents a large number of deceased persons who names still appear on the Voters' Roll. In numerical terms the "over-registration" of people aged 30+ against the actual population is 1,146,760.

This conclusion is further supported by the fact that there is an unlikely 116,195 people aged over 100 still on the roll.

Constituency "Over-Registration"

The problem of over-registration can also be considered by constituency. Table 2 indicates data for each province with the number of constituencies in each province where the number of

registered voters exceeds the population in those constituencies appearing under the last column heading.

Table 2: "Over Registration" of Voters as indicated by comparison with 2012 Census

Province

TotalPopulation 2012 Census

AdultPopulation 2012 Census

June 2013Voters' Roll

No of Constituencies with over-registration

Bulawayo

655,675

338,066

340,901

7

58%

Harare

2,0981,99

1,081,831

801,815

10

34%

Manicaland

1,755,000

904,878

736,799

4

15%

Mashonaland Central

1,129,449

582,344

504,416

5

28%

Mashonaland East

1,337,059

689,388

651,492

12

52%

Mashonaland West

1,449,938

747,588

621,404

4

18%

Masvingo

1,486,604

766,493

697,587

12

46%

Matabeleland North

743,871

383,540

359,786

5

38%

Matabeleland South

685,046

353,210

378,124

9

69%

Midlands

1,622,476

836,549

781,790

10

36%

TOTALS

12,963,317

6,683,886

5,874,114

78

Table 2 thus indicates that in 78 of Zimbabwe's 210 constituencies, the number of registered voters exceeds the total population there, as indicated by the census.

Delimitation

These problems of "over" and "under" registration obviously affect the delimitation of constituencies, since this is based upon the number of registered voters in each constituency.

Delimitation will be inaccurate to the extent that the voters' roll incorrectly reflects the number of voters in each constituency. Constituencies were last delimited ahead of the 2008 elections. There is to be no new delimitation ahead of the 2013 elections5 despite extensive demographic changes and changes to the Voters' Roll since 2008.

Both the old and the new constitution provide that the number of registered voters in each constituency should, as far as is possible, be equal, thus ensuring that no vote is of greater or less value than another in elections for the National Assembly. The number of registered voters should thus be spread evenly across the 210 constituencies, making a mean of 27,972 voters per constituency. Both constitutions, however, allow a variation of up to 20% more or less than the average number of voters registered in each constituency. The permissible (though undesirable) variation of 20% has the result that the maximum and minimum number of voters in each constituency should not exceed 33,566 registered voters per constituency or be less than 22,378.

The distribution of voters on the June 2013 roll is such that 23 constituencies exceed the permissible maximum and 17 are below the permissible minimum. Mbare has a voter population 154% greater than the mean (43,169 voters) and Chipinge East is has a voter population of only 46% of the mean (12,940 voters), as can be seen from Table 4 (The full data can be seen in Appendix 3).

Table 4: Number of constituencies with voter's numbers more or less than 20% constitutional limits for delimitation

Province

June 2013 Voters' Roll

No. ofConstituencies aboveMaximum allowed [33566]

No. ofConstituencies belowMinimum allowed [22378]

Bulawayo

300,743

0

0

Harare

788,959

3

6

Manicaland

753,982

3

1

Mashonaland Central

537,708

4

0

Mashonaland East

664,141

4

2

Mashonaland West

609,732

1

0

Masvingo

727,697

4

4

Matabeleland North

362,150

2

1

Matabeleland South

351,954

2

1

Midlands

777,048

0

2

Totals:

5,874,114

23

17

Gender

The Voters' Roll shows no gender bias when considered as a whole. The picture may, however, change when gender is considered across each age band, though this analysis has yet to be undertaken. Table 5 shows that the gender distribution of voters almost exactly matches the divide according to the census, with women outnumbering men on both by almost identical percentages, roughly 48%:52%.

Share this article

Services

Related links

Comments

If you come across comments that are injurious, defamatory, profane, off-topic or inappropriate; contain personal attacks or racist, sexist, homophobic, or other slurs, please report them and they will be removed.

responses to this article

Rigged electionsFailure is a viable option in Zimbabwe.

Let's look at the facts:

A short while ago, Tsvangirai said "No reforms, no elections!".

Oppressive laws remain in place despite 4 years of GNU where Zanu PF were the minority . .more party.

The voters roll has been stuffed in more ways than one by Zanu PF who control the ZEC.

A judiciary stuffed with Zanu PF benefiaries of farms, flat screens and MaBenzis. A jacked up CIO inspired court case by a CIO inspired NGO and SADC too stupid to smell the coffee let alone the plot.

A ZOOMA who likes his representatives grossly insulted by a genocidal old geriatric donkey.

... and Tsvangirai is taking the country into this thing they call an election?

by Peter Pan on July 08 2013, 11:58Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Good work RAU.>>"The compilation of the Voters' Roll is always a moving target. Old voters die and new voters are added. The Voters' Roll can thus never meet the ideal indicated at the outset. However, the gap between the ideal and the actual should be kept within . .more reasonable limits if the electoral process is to be deemed fair and credible."

Define "reasonable limits" please.

It will be a waste of time, effort and money if the discrepancies will result in an unfair election that the international community cannot endorse.

There is no point in an election if the eligible youth of a country is excluded because they are not yet registered. . .less

by Barry Saayman on July 08 2013, 12:54Find this comment inappropriate? Report it