Among the whoppers politicians tell is that they don’t pay attention to polls. That’s baloney. With fewer than six months until an expected federal vote, they’re poring over every dataset they can find.

The numbers continue to portend bad things for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. Many left-of-centre voters who pulled together under the red banner in a stop-Harper movement have jumped ship. Some have gone to the Conservative Party. But despite a continued and commanding lead in the most recent measures of vote intention for Andrew Scheer (his party is nudging 40 per cent popular support; Scheer himself is now seen as best prime minister), another party leader is likely to wear an even wider smile these days.

Elizabeth May appears to be having a moment. She has long been more personally popular than her federal party-leading peers. Now, like dandelions in a field untreated by pesticides, Green support is starting to spread.

The party has bloomed since a disappointing 2015 election that saw its percentage of popular vote drop to a mere three per cent, with only May returned to the House of Commons. But since then, the Greens have flourished in some provincial races – holding three seats in British Columbia’s legislature, and forming the Official Opposition on Prince Edward Island.

The Greens have flourished in some provincial races – holding three seats in British Columbia’s legislature, and forming the Official Opposition on Prince Edward Island.

The most recent poll, this one from the Angus Reid Institute, has national support for the party poking through the double-digit threshold at 11 per cent. What’s pollenating this springtime for the Greens? In part, it is the issue for which the party is named and defined. Against the backdrop of recent floods across central Canada, and a giant container of garbage steaming its way back to this country from the Philippines, the environment is now identified by Canadians as the issue of topmost concern.

The Greens own this issue. The Conservatives have little to say on the matter. The governing Liberals tried unsuccessfully to walk a tightrope on pipeline development and carbon pricing, only to fall, perhaps without a safety net. The issue has chronically bedevilled the New Democrats, whose base contains those who work in union jobs in manufacturing and trades and chafe at the environmentalists in their own party. This infighting was a key factor in NDP leader Adrian Dix’s loss in B.C. in 2013.

Thus, May’s little Green patch may be the only credible one for those feeling let down on climate change and carbon pricing, particularly sullen former Liberals who can’t quite bring themselves to vote NDP but are looking for somewhere else to park – even lock – their vote.

Plus, May joins a group of leaders for whom lowered expectations allowed them years to build a comfort level with the electorate. Ed Broadbent had been leader 13 years before his breakthrough 1988 campaign netted the federal NDP 43 seats. It would also take Jack Layton a few kicks at the can before the orange wave rolled through Canada in 2011. May has been Green leader more than a dozen years. She’s a familiar face on the campaign trail, one that voters in the past have thought little about, but when they do, the thoughts are usually good.

Still, there are no guarantees it will all come up roses. Some leaders peak too soon, just ask Tom Mulcair.

Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair: Did he peak too soon?Adrian Wyld /
THE CANADIAN PRESS

Plus, May’s advantage is driven by young people who are far more likely to choose the environment as a top issue than older voters who tend to be more concerned by economic matters. Younger voters are also far more likely to back the Greens. But here’s the problem: This demographic doesn’t vote at the same rate as their parents and grandparents. 2015 was a hailed as a breakthrough year for young voters. Their turnout surged 17 points from 2011 – to 58 per cent. But that still pales in comparison to the three-quarters of voters aged 55 to 74 who voted in the same election.

So will be Elizabeth May be the sleeping giant of this campaign or will her base just sleep? The Greens have swung and missed before. But if anyone has momentum now, it’s them.

Shachi Kurl is Executive Director of the Angus Reid Institute, a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation.

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