What if Mitch McConnell loses?

If McConnell were to lose in November to Grimes, Cornyn could succeed him. | Getty

“I’m not going to speculate on that because I just don’t think that’s going to happen,” Cornyn said when asked about whether he believed a leadership race would be a wide-open affair. “I think [McConnell is] going to win and win handily.”

“McConnell is going to win,” said Thune. When pressed on what would happen if McConnell were unsuccessful, Thune added, “I’m not going to go there.”

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“The Republican Conference believes there isn’t any likelihood that Mitch McConnell isn’t going to be reelected,” Blunt said. “I hear no discussion of any kind, and I’m not interested in speculating.”

A major question is whether Thune or anyone else would actually take on Cornyn if a leadership race does occur, and whether the 53-year-old South Dakota Republican has what it takes to seize the leadership mantle from his 62-year-old colleague, a former Texas judge who ran the Senate GOP’s campaign committee in 2010 and 2012. Thune passed on a challenge to Cornyn as minority whip after Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl retired at the end of the last Congress, instead settling for the No. 3 position.

Last month, several potential challengers were repeatedly mentioned as having the credentials to challenge McCarthy for the House majority leader post, but in the end, they all passed, leaving only extreme long-shot Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-Idaho) to run. A similar dynamic could develop among Senate Republicans — Cornyn might be beatable, but detractors can’t beat someone with no one. Unless a credible challenger like Thune jumped into the race, Cornyn would be acclaimed Republican leader overwhelmingly.

If McConnell were to win his race but the GOP fell short of the majority, he would likely have the support to remain as minority leader — but he would face growing consternation in the ranks after blowing three straight shots at taking back the chamber.

Similarly, there does seem to be some apprehension about whether Cornyn has what it takes to run the GOP Conference — either in the majority or the minority — and whether Cruz would be “looking over his shoulder,” as one senator put it.

Some Republicans said they worried Cornyn would have to move further and further to the right — dragging the party with him — in order to avoid being politically outflanked by Cruz back home. Cruz’s office declined to comment on “hypotheticals” about whether the Texas freshman would back his senior senator in a leadership race. But a Cruz spokeswoman added that the freshman senator “has the highest respect for John Cornyn and is honored to work with him representing Texas in the U.S. Senate.”

Still, Cornyn is expected to skate to reelection this fall, ensuring he’d be free of reelection pressures in the next Congress and not have to be as sensitive to demands on his right flank as he did for most of last year, particularly as Cruz prepares for a potential run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016.

Blunt — while viewed as a potential Senate GOP leader given his past stint as a House Republican leader — is up for reelection in 2016 and may not be eager to have a target on his back if he ends up running the GOP Conference. And Alexander, a Senate institutionalist well-respected by his colleagues, would invite anger from the far right off the Hill given his openness for deal cutting with Reid and the Democrats. Alexander already left the No. 3 spot in leadership in 2011, claiming he would be more able to work with Democrats by serving in the rank and file.

The senators were quick to dismiss questions about their leadership ambitions. Asked if he would run for leader, Burr said: “My wife doesn’t want me to do anything like that.”

Some Republicans laughed off the whole issue, dismissing the threat of McConnell’s defeat as more of a punch line than a serious issue they could be facing after Election Day.