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What happened with Mexican Drug cartels after the capture of El Chapo?

El Chapo’s Capture, overview

6:40 am on February 22nd 2014,
marked the arrest of who was once the most wanted drug kingpin in the world:
Archivaldo Joaquin Guzman Loera, aka El
Chapo. Mazatlan, Sinaloa, was the city where he was arrested, through a
joint operation by the Navy Department and the Attorney General’s Office of the
Government of Mexico and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) of the United
States.

The leader of Sinaloa’s Cartel, a criminal
organization involved in drug trafficking, with influence in 21 states of the
Mexican Republic and in more than 50 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, America
and Oceania[1],
was finally arrested after escaping in 2001 from Puente Grande prison in
Jalisco, and being sought by Mexican and international law enforcement
agencies.

El Chapo was hiding in a house in the city
of Mazatlan, in Sinaloa, and his arrest came after "an operation that we
had been working on for several months", according to the information
provided by the Mexican General Attorney, Jesus Murillo Karam, in a press
conference on February 22nd.

It was in February when agencies who worked in
concert to the arrest of Guzman Loera had a more favorable position to his
capture, as detailed by Murillo Karam. "Between February 13th and
17th several addresses were located where El Chapo used to live, that
made it difficult to catch him. We found that all his seven houses were connected
by tunnels, and that he had also used the drainpipes of the city itself"[2].
Finally, a satellite phone was used to track the precise location of the
Sinaloa Cartel leader[3].

El Chapo Guzman was finally captured in an
operation in which not a single bullet was shot, and in the middle of a
controversy in social networks, where the identity of the drug dealer was
questioned. The 56 year old man arrested and brought behind bars was a person
with a lower height and with a different face to the remembered of the Joaquin when
he was arrested 20 years ago. However, the authorities assured that the
identity of the drug trafficker was verified at a "100%".

In the operation in which Joaquin Guzman Loera
was arrested, eleven people more were arrested as well. 97 rifles, 36 handguns,
2 grenade launchers, more than 6000 cartridges, 43 vehicles, 14 houses and 38
communication devices were also ensured, among other possessions[4]. On February 26 El Chapo Guzman was
charged with eight criminal cases, which are estimated to result in up to 400
years in prison.

What is happening with
Mexican Drug Cartels?

The arrest of Joaquin El Chapo Guzman represented the capture of the most wanted man in
the world after the death of Osama Bin Laden, according to Forbes magazine. His
apprehension sparked congratulations from the governments of Colombia and the
United States[5], and news media around the world.

However, the fact of seeing Joaquin Guzman
Loera behind bars, has triggered movements within the Mexican drug cartels. In
the particular case of Sinaloa’s Cartel, the organization that El Chapo Guzman
led, was Ismael El Mayo Zambada
Garcia who assumed the leadership after the capture of Joaquin Guzman.

Ismael Zambada has been working in the Sinaloa
Cartel since the mid 90's, and for many people he was considered the right hand
of Joaquin Guzman. His rise as a leader of the cartel was expected both by
researchers as by law enforcement agencies, and the AFP news agency confirmed
that the appointment was because although El
Chapo has sons, "there is no one better" that could replace
Joaquin more than El Mayo Zambada. However,
a godchild of El Chapo, Damaso Lopez,
is also named in the leadership of Sinaloa Cartel.

So far, the Sinaloa Cartel has not shown signs
of internal conflict, although the organization is under scrutiny from
historians and critics, who point out that one of the main objectives of the
new cartel leader is to maintain unity within its members.

What is certain is that other Mexican cartels
have actually considered the arrest of El
Chapo Guzman as an opportunity to fight against the Sinaloa Cartel and
expand their territories. Criminal organizations such as Los Zetas, who are the
principal enemies of the Sinaloa’s cartel, have also helped the Juarez Cartel
to fight against El Chapo’s Cartel.

The Juarez Cartel had been dismantled after
losing against El Chapo’s Cartel, but has now presented renewed fights.
Recently, security consultancy Straftor reported that Los Zetas have helped the
Juarez cartel headed by Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, to regain territory in Ciudad
Juarez and other parts of Chihuahua, taking advantage of Joaquin Guzman Loera’s
capture.

Principal Mexican cartels and Lord Drugs before and after the capture of
El Chapo

The Sinaloa Cartel has often been in the eye of
criticism. When in December 2006, the then president of Mexico, Felipe Calderon,
openly declared the war against drug trafficking, the bands who suffered major
blows were the cartels of Gulf, Tijuana, and Los Zetas, who have had conflicts
with the cartel directed by El Chapo Guzman.

The situation touched off when the Sinaloa
Cartel, also known as the Sinaloa Federation, was favored, and was consolidated
as one of the most powerful drug cartels in Latin America. When in February
2014 El Chapo Guzman was captured by
the Mexican government, the former Director of Intelligence for the DEA, Phil
Jordan, declared in an interview broadcasted by several Mexican media, that El Chapo allegedly financed the election
campaign of Enrique Peña Nieto[6], candidate of the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI), who won the presidency of Mexico in July 2013.

For historians as Froylan Enciso, a member of the
non-governmental organization “Nuestra Aparente Rendición” (Our Apparent
Surrender), "there is no before and after El Chapo Guzman", because according to a declaration in the
Mexican newspaper Milenio in February, when a drug dealer is captured, his
position is quickly filled with someone else, given that the organized cartels
have a corporate structure.

At the moment the Sinaloa Cartel and Los Zetas
cartel control together over 80% of the Mexican territory, with clearly
distinguishable borders: the group that is currently directed by El Mayo Zambada, dominates most of the
states of the Mexican Pacific, based in Sinaloa; while the group headed by Omar
Trevino Morales[7], aka Z-42, operates in most states of the Gulf of Mexico.

After the capture of El Chapo, the cartels of Gulf, Juarez and the Knights Templars, are
the ones who are starring in the news.

The Gulf Cartel, based in Tamaulipas state, is
facing a deep internal division, which has caused more than 35 deaths just in
the past two weeks. The enemy of the Zetas cartel is also one of the oldest
drug trafficking organizations in Mexico, and was also one of the most
powerful. However, the fight for territory against Los Zetas, and the arrest of
its leader in 2012 The Coss, and his
successor, Mario Ramirez Trevino, the X20
in 2013, and other authority figures, has triggered a wave of violence to gain
control of the Gulf Cartel[8].

The Juarez Cartel was an ally of Sinaloa
Federation once, but as indicated by Straffor consultant, both groups became
enemies, and the Juarez cartel directed by Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, lost
against El Chapo. Currently his
return is due to alleged support by Los Zetas, to stand against the Sinaloa
Cartel after the arrest of Joaquin Guzman.

The Knights Templars has just gone through the
murder of their top leaders, Enrique Kike
Plancarte, on April 19th, and Nazario El Chayo Moreno Gonzalez[9], in an operation on March 9th. This
organization was created in 2011 as a split-off of the La Familia Michoacana[10] Cartel, who in 2006 was motivated by
Mexico’s Government declaring a war on drugs.

The Knights Templars are allies of the Sinaloa
Cartel in its fight against Los Zetas, and the position of leadership seems to
fall to Servando Gomez La Tuta,
although the Mexican government says that he shall be captured before May 10th[11]. If the challenge is achieved, the Knights
Templars organization would be dismantled, though perhaps it will persist in a
few independent cells.

The Sinaloa Cartel has received its biggest
strike with the arrest of Joaquin Guzman Loera, although in 2013 Gonzalo
Inzunza was shot, and Jose Rodrigo Arechiga was captured, both leaders inside
the organization. Although in the present there are no reports of internal
conflicts in the band currently headed by El
Mayo Zambada, the weakening of the arms battling Los Zetas, as the Gulf
Cartel and the Knights Templars get stronger, could result into an indirect
weakening of the Sinaloa Cartel.

The new geographical panorama of drug
trafficking in Mexico, after the capture of El Chapo Guzman has presented
changes and new conflicts, but these have not been caused by the isolated fact
of Joaquin Guzman’s capture. There have been infighting at the Gulf Cartel, and
the strikes from the government to organizations such as the Knights Templars
have resulted in a new panorama in the Mexican drug trade.

New trends in drug
trafficking in Mexico: local bands

The Executive Vice President of the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars, Andrew Selee, wrote in the Mexican
newspaper El Universal, that the fact
that Mexico has captured or killed several of the leaders of the drug business,
such as Joaquin El Chapo Guzman,
Nazario Chayo Moreno and Miguel
Treviño Z-40, that is not equivalent
to the collapse of their criminal groups.

However, the weakening of the large cartels through
the loss of their leaders seem to make a trend in the pattern of drug trafficking
in Mexico. Andrew Selee points out that Los Zetas, despite having a major influence
in several states, have become a cartel formed by small cells structured and
united under one name.

The dismantling of Mexico's drug cartels does
not solve the problem, nor ends the violence. The demand for narcotics in the
United States and Mexico continues, so that drugs will be produced and sold.
The writer and Mexican journalist Hector Aguilar Carmine, said in an article
for the Spanish newspaper El País[12], that the illegality of drugs is
what causes violence and the organization of cartels; while Andrew Selee points
out that new bands, though smaller, will continue dealing drugs[13].

While currently cartels like Sinaloa’s are
challenged to maintain unity and power after the capture of Joaquin Guzman
Loera; The Knights Templars are facing fragmentation by eliminating their
leaders. The Gulf Cartel has an internal fight that has led to extreme violence
in Tamaulipas at Tamaulipas, and Los Zetas are operating under the same name
but with different criminal groups.

Other cartels, such as the Jalisco New
Generation, also known as The Matazetas,
and the Juarez Cartel, have now control over smaller territories, though
profitable businesses. The decentralizing of the remaining cartels like the
Tijuana Cartel or Beltran Leyva family continues with an smaller scale of drug
trafficking.

The capture of El Chapo Guzman was a strike to the Mexican drug trade, but has
also given a media coup that benefited internationally the government of the president
Enrique Peña Nieto. After concluding that the drug traffic will continue even
without El Chapo, the upcoming months
and years will bring the answers of whether Mexico is capable to deal with drug
trafficking and its problems at a more local level while the fight continues nationally.