Welcome to Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry! Being first years, you should all have just been sorted into your houses. They will be your friends during your stay here. You are here to learn to control your powers, and harness them for good. You will learn to ride broomsticks, mix potions, cast charms, and care for magical creatures.

Some of you may have heard of some Bayesian conspiracy. I can tell you that no such thing exists, and you have nothing to worry about. It is all just a bunch of twaddle. You will concentrate on your studies, and not let rumours consume you.

Have a good time at Hogwarts!

Standard Rules:

Spoiler:

1 - Game days will last for 7 days, or until a majority is reached. The game day will continue until I declare night, but any votes made after deadline or majority will not be counted.2 - Game nights will last for 4 days. Any actions not taken by deadline will not be taken.3 - If you wish to discuss the game, you may spoiler your thoughts in the discussion thread. Do not read spoilers unless you are no longer a part of the game.4 - Do not quote your role pm's, although paraphrasing is allowed.5 - Votes must be placed on their own line and in bold6 - Failure to post without prior notification will result in modprods, and possible modkills.7 - Conspirators may only pm each other at night, and have a factional kill, which may be taken in addition to any other actions the player may have.8 - All private messages must be cc'd to me.

Special Rules:1 - You have all been placed in a house. You may pm your house mates at any time.2 - Each house may gain points. The house with the most points at the end of the game earns a win.3 - Each house also has a factional ability. To use the ability, housemates must vote on who the target is, and who will carry out the action. If there is a draw in this vote, the action will not carry out.4 - Every post with meaningful content earns 1 point for your house.5 - Double posts will be counted as one post.6 - A vote at the end of the day will earn your house 3 points.7 - If a conspirator is lynched, all players with a vote on them earns 5 points for their house at the beginning of the day.8 - Any attempts to manipulate the points system (such as 2 people posting after each other consecutively) will be penalised points.

Last edited by Gopher of Pern on Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:34 pm UTC, edited 13 times in total.

You all awake to your first day of classes. In the dining room there is a buzz around. All the talk is about this so called 'Bayesian Conspiracy.' What do they want? Why are they here? Who are they after? With all the strange things that happen at Hogwarts, the older students aren't too worried about what this all might mean. But a small collection of first years, worried out of their brains, form a small group to root out this conspiracy, to remove their influence from the school.

Little do they know, the conspiracy knows, and are taking action to ensure they stay a secret.

It should also be noted that the Bayesian Conspiracy is started by Harry and Draco in the fic. Harry being good, and Draco evil it stands to reason that there is no real guarantee that the conspiracy is good or evil. It could be both or neither.

I was informed flavor didn't matter for this setup in the sign up thread.

Vote: MpoloFoS: Azrael0001

for talking about flavor.

Lets get down to the brass tacks here.

Scum exists, likely every group has at least one scum spy, and we all have some kinda power collectively in a house. This is all we know and all that matters, flavor be damned.

I like my vote here, since as a nice little townie, I have no role name whatsoever, just a house alignment, and what power it has collectively. Anyone talking about specific characters must not have such a role PM, and is likely not a townie.

DS9, after being told the story and moral of the boy who cried wolf by Julian.

Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

I'd be kind of surprised if anyone had an actual rolename. We're all first-years, the faceless masses.

The setup does seem to be fairly straightforward, but there are some catches. The team powers that we have are all likely helpful "townie" powers, somehow vaguely connected to the flavor of the house. Any of these could fall into the control of the conspiracy if we're not careful, especially if some house has more than one conspirator. Chat with our housemates is primarily about the use of the house power, and perhaps how to get more house points. Presumably the conspiracy has some sort of chat as well.

The big question is: Does the conspiracy have night-kill, or are they a cult? The second is very possible from flavor, though the first would be much more traditional. We will presumably know more on that question after the first night.

Oh yeah, regarding powers - let's not discuss what they are. If scum DO have someone in every house, then they know what they are anyway. If scum DO NOT have someone in every house, it's important that we try to keep them uninformed about the powers of the house(s) they're NOT in.

NK or cult, I guess we'll have to see until D2 - although it might not be that obvious. If a kill does not occur - we won't know if it's because it's been stopped somehow, or if someone got culted.

Ok, so based on that - a really 'out there' idea. If we have any powers that might stop a kill or culting tonight, we don't use it. We just agree to not. It sounds counter-intuitive, and it's a standard oh-look-roband-isn't-thinking-before-posting-again kinda thing, but it's just an idea. By D2 morning, we know if scum have a kill or not. Yes, we potentially lose two townies before that point, but if we don't do it, we won't know.

Of course, scum could respond by choosing to not NK to confuse us - but then we get a free day of discussion.

Like I said, it's 'out there' - but give me a good reason why we shouldn't do this.

roband wrote:Like I said, it's 'out there' - but give me a good reason why we shouldn't do this.

Scum controls a kill, there's no need to withold actions to find out. My house power practically confirms it (and fellow house members should be able to confirm this). Although you said not to discuss powers, I'd rather offer up this information and use house powers tonight to catch out potential scum than waste tonight finding something out we already know. I'll reveal the power if needed.

Yes it is a doctor power (it's difficult to be subtle about these things). It says it will block all attempts on their life. I think it's unlikely we've been given a completely useless power. There's the possibility of an SK/Vig independent or house Vig, but a doctor power (distributed to a house) indiciates to me that we have traditional killing scum. If someone has been granted a power that blocks culting though, you should probably step forward. Right now though the simplest explanation is that scum have a kill rather than a cult.

Given the existence of a doctor power, and the fact that this game is more designed for new players, I'm inclined to agree that the mafia will likely have a traditional mafia kill. However, roband, does it really matter if the mafia has a kill or a cult? IIRC, the only reason why a cult is such a big deal in most games is because the town will want to remove the cult before the mafia. In this game, if what you theorize is true, the cult would be the mafia, so our basic strategy would be the same.

mpolo wrote:If it helps in trying to track down if there are independents or non-house-aligned anti-towns here, I'm willing to share the fact that there are only three members of my house in the first year.

I'm willing to bet that that's true for every house, since I think its unlikely for any house to be made up of two players...? So, I think its a pretty solid possibility that we don't have any independents this game, or at least any independents that are separate from a house.

greenlover wrote:Given the existence of a doctor power, and the fact that this game is more designed for new players, I'm inclined to agree that the mafia will likely have a traditional mafia kill. However, roband, does it really matter if the mafia has a kill or a cult? IIRC, the only reason why a cult is such a big deal in most games is because the town will want to remove the cult before the mafia. In this game, if what you theorize is true, the cult would be the mafia, so our basic strategy would be the same.

Yeah, but if there is no kill on N1 do we say "yay, we blocked the kill somehow" or do we say "oh, someone was culted - scum now have one more person than they did before". And the gameplay is different. With normal mafia, you're looking for slips all the way along. If someone is culted, they could have been culted because they looked so townie on D1...

[quote='Gopher of Pern']Game Rules: Everyone will be sorted into one of the houses - Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, Ravenclaw and Slytherin. If the numbers aren't divisible by 4, any extras will be independants. [/quote]From the game rules, and I really don't have any reason to doubt this. So I strongly doubt we have any indies here, seeing how we have 12 players.. If any house doesn't have 3 players, disagree with me. If not, I'll assume it's just town vs scum.

mpolo wrote:The big question is: Does the conspiracy have night-kill, or are they a cult? The second is very possible from flavor, though the first would be much more traditional. We will presumably know more on that question after the first night.

... I guess reading the rules is useful at times.

First post wrote:7 - Conspirators may only pm each other at night, and have a factional kill, which may be taken in addition to any other actions the player may have.

I'm not sure what to make of everyone's discussion about this, since it is clearly stated, but since most of the players here are old, they might have skipped it since they thought it was the not-very-game related. I just find it kind of weird that A) No one looked it up and B) No one even tried to ask the mod (though that could be justified with the setup being semi-closed/closed).I also doubt that the conspirators are a cult since they also have a kill.

And then there's this...

greenlover wrote:

mpolo wrote:If it helps in trying to track down if there are independents or non-house-aligned anti-towns here, I'm willing to share the fact that there are only three members of my house in the first year.

I'm willing to bet that that's true for every house, since I think its unlikely for any house to be made up of two players...? So, I think its a pretty solid possibility that we don't have any independents this game, or at least any independents that are separate from a house.

... As long as there was a player amount of a multiple of four, then there would be no independents. THIS WAS CLEARLY EXPLAINED IN THE SIGNUPS. In fact, that's one of the reasons why I signed up-to have 12 players in the game.

FOS at mpolo for not reading the rules/contributing random, distracting stuff to the gameIGMEOY at everyone else who doesn't seem to be thinking (roband for talking about cult tangent since he didn't read the rules, greenlover for not remembering setup details, FAOT for claiming doctor to prove there's a scum kill... and I think that's it at this point)

ninja'd by tim, who repeats second point (btw, quotation marks have to be ", not ')