San Antonio one of few cities with stable home value forecast

Let’s get the bad news out first. PMI Group reports that 97 percent of the 381 Metropolitian Statistical Areas in the U.S. are at risk to have lower home values two years from now. That means that just 12 are at minimal risk.

The good news is that San Antonio is one of those MSAs that has minimal risk. If you look at the list of the 50 biggest MSAs, the 10 most stable markets include Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Meanwhile, the 10 riskiest markets are dominated by cities in California and Florida, and Las Vegas.

Out of the 50 largest MSAs, 23 had a risk score higher than 50, which means a greater than 50 percent chance that prices will be lower in two years. San Antonio had a risk score of one.

“The two primary drivers of increased risk scores across a broader segment of MSAs are the continued high level of foreclosures and rising unemployment,” said David Berson, PMI’s chief economist and strategist, said in a news release. “These factors will put additional upward pressure on risk, with increases in affordability and lower mortgage rates providing some offset.”