The hope in the international world has been that China would have sway over the recalcitrant dictator Kim Jong-un, who appears to be dismissive of the international sanctions the United Nations Security Council recently imposed on the Hermit State.

But the concern now is that Beijing is having little or no success in reining in the bellicose 28-year-old leader, even though other countries’ leaders believe that the road to convincing Kim to stand down from his most recent brinksmanship and halt continued missile and nuclear testing passes through Beijing.

Westerners who recently have visited Beijing say the Chinese leadership is frustrated with Kim’s dismissal of advice to adhere to international demands.

While Beijing, which is assembling troops along the North Korean border, can ill-afford to abandon North Korea, there’s little that China can do, according to Western observers.

For one thing, these observers believe that China’s influence over North Korea has been overstated. Indeed, Kim, who inherited the dynasty from grandfather and father, Kim Jong-il, has Beijing between the proverbial rock and hard place. While frustrated with him, Beijing doesn’t want a nuclear-capable North Korea in its backyard, especially since its influence over him is very limited.

Also, Beijing is forced to deal with Kim and attempt to maintain some stability on the Korean Peninsula out of concern for the millions of North Korean refugees who would flood into China – a development which Beijing not only will be unable to handle but which would constitute one of the worst humanitarian disasters in history.

Analysts say that China’s new leadership under President Xi Jinping cannot allow North Korea to fall. If it were to shut off the vital food and energy supplies that it sends in, the country would collapse, creating the very disaster that Beijing wants to avoid.

At the same time, China has a security arrangement with North Korea, much like the United States has with South Korea.

One of the keys to whether China will come to North Korea’s side militarily is to look at what the People’s Liberation Army decides to do.

In 1950, China sent in “volunteers” – some 350,000 of them – into North Korea in response to the beginning of the civil war there.

The indication is that no matter how irrational the North Korean leadership acts, Beijing cannot abandon Pyongyang. So the question of whether Beijing and Washington can cut a deal for regime change in the Hermit Kingdom appears to be a moot issue, at this point.

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