Stability Treaty I….

Well, the polls are closing in about 10 minutes, so you’ve probably made your mind up by now.

I’ll not second guess what’s happened, turnout looks like it will be a factor, which would be expected to eat into the Yes poll-lead, and the NO side appear to have been working harder around town. I’ll be surprised if it isn’t very close…

What I *do* have for you is a little exercise I did with tomorrow’s tally in mind. Looking at the last 4 EU referenda, I calculated (estimated in some cases due to constituency revisions) what the average YES vote was in each constituency, and from that worked out the sort of figure I would expect there tomorrow *if it was a dead heat*.

Now, obviously this is just a guide, and there are people who were Yes for Lisbon & Nice who oppose this (and vice versa). Indeed, there were individuals who both opposed and supported both of those treaties! But is should give a decent guide as to whether the tallies coming in indicate a likely Yes or No, rather than represent a particular political strain in those constituencies.

The figures come out as follows;

Carlow Kilkenny

52.78%

Cavan Monaghan

48.87%

Clare

54.15%

Cork East

48.16%

Cork NC

42.03%

Cork NW

50.50%

Cork SC

49.42%

Cork SW

49.58%

Donegal NE

39.54%

Donegal SW

40.59%

Dublin C

45.54%

Dublin MW

45.44%

Dublin N

53.35%

Dublin NC

50.97%

Dublin NE

47.30%

Dublin NW

42.04%

Dublin S

60.34%

Dublin SC

43.88%

Dublin SE

57.75%

Dublin SW

42.45%

Dublin W

49.96%

Dun Laoghaire

60.94%

Galway E

51.00%

Galway W

48.22%

Kerry N

44.66%

Kerry S

48.13%

Kildare N

55.83%

Kildare S

52.06%

Laois-Offaly

54.65%

Limerick E

49.73%

Limerick County

50.81%

Westmeath

49.53%

Louth

46.90%

Mayo

45.50%

Meath E

54.44%

Meath W

48.46%

Roscommon-LS

49.60%

Sligo LN

48.44%

Tipperary N

53.22%

Tipperary S

51.44%

Waterford

50.75%

Wexford

49.43%

Wicklow

51.76%

As you can see, this suggests that a Yes vote in Dun Laoghaire of, say, 59% actually shows the Treaty in trouble, whereas a No vote in Donegal NE of no more than 60% would mean the Yes side likely to shade it. Notably, Dublin West (home to Joe Higgins) is a weather-vane, with 49.97% needed by the Yes side to be the more optimistic (although this could be lower as a result of Joe being one of the more prominent NO campaigners). Similarly Cork NW and Limerick City are very close to an expected 50/50 were there a 50/50 split nationwide.

So as the results come in, you might compare them with these figures, and it could give you a clearer picture than the spin doctors and local journalists are providing you.