Since debuting in 2010, Kenley Jansen has been one of the game’s truly elite relief aces, and 2013 was his best showing yet. Kenley began the year as the set-up man to Brandon League after League was gifted a ridiculous three-year deal, and though the cries were numerous and persistent to not give Brandon high-leverage situations over Kenley, it could have been an acceptable scenario. Using Kenley in important situations while allowing League to take care of your run-of-the-mill three-run lead would have been a solid use of resources had League not imploded, but he eventually did. From there, Kenley soon took over the closing duties and never looked back.

Jansen appeared in a career-high 75 games and 76.2 innings, and most importantly there were no issues related to his heart like there had been in the past. He yet again dominated hitters behind his incredible cutter, posting a 1.99 FIP, 55 FIP-, 1.62 SIERA, 13.03 K/9 IP, and a career-best 2.11 BB/9 IP. His walk rate has decreased significantly in each of his four seasons (5.00/4.36/3.05/2.11), and while he may never reach that whiff level of 2011, it has never dipped below 13 per nine. His improved control led to another career mark of over six strikeouts per free pass issued, and a second straight season with a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.86).

His cutter was far and away the most valuable cutter among all pitchers in 2013, and it was actually the most valuable of any type of fastball among all relievers as well. With a declining walk rate, declining home run rate, and an WAR that has steadily increased, the Dodgers are set in the pen for years to come.

Jansen is about to get expensive, but he’s more than worth it. I’d have no problem with a longer-term deal for a guy who is nothing like the relievers we see getting ridiculous contracts every year. If Ned Colletti feels comfortable signing guys like League and Matt Guerrier for three years, locking up your core bullpen guy might be an important step to take sooner than later.

We’re all witnessing one of the most dominant and talented relief aces we’ve seen in a long time. Come 2014, the Dodgers’ back-end of the pen will be one of their strengths yet again, led by Kenley Jansen and his otherworldly cutter.

After being the first 2012 draftee to make it to the big leagues, Paco Rodriguez cemented himself as a valuable piece to the pen in 2013 who could get both righties and lefties out despite a rough finish to the regular and postseason.

Paco’s season can easily be broken into two pieces: pre-September and post-September. Prior to September, Paco posted a 1.88 ERA in 64 games comprised of 48 innings. Opponents hit just .140/.214/.185/.399 against him with two homers, and Paco whiffed 56 against 13 walks in that span. However, when the calender hit Sep. 1, Paco’s dominance crumbled, and a lot of that was likely due to fatigue. Batters hit .308/.438/.731/1.169 against him with three homers, and Paco walked six while fanning just seven in 6.1 IP stretched over 12 appearances.

Paco gave up a significant amount of hard-hit balls after September, as his line drive percentage jumped from 17% to 30%. Those struggles continued into October. In his first postseason game, Paco was brought in to intentionally walk Reed Johnson in order to face Jason Heyward with the bases juiced. Putting aside the sheer absurdity of that Don Mattingly decision, J-Hey proceeded to single back through the middle to drive in a pair. The two would square off three days later, as Paco was brought in for mop-up duty. Paco allowed a two-run bomb to Heyward and followed that with a walk and two singles before being pulled. It was the last postseason duty he would be given, as he was eventually left off of the NLCS roster against a Cardinals team that couldn’t hit lefties.

The end-of-year numbers don’t look overwhelming (3.08 FIP), but that last month really did Paco in. He still struck out almost 10.5 per nine; proved himself to be far, far more than a LOOGY; and gave Donnie another invaluable option for the late innings.

Heading into 2014, Paco will likely once again be trusted with high-leverage situations against lefties and righties, but there will be some question marks associated with him now. Regardless, he’s an excellent young lefty reliever on a cheap contract with years of team control left, and those guys — even at the most fungible position in baseball — are still quite valuable.

Signed in August to a guaranteed major-league deal following a rehab from Tommy John surgery, Brian Wilson greatly impressed and surpassed all expectations in his short time with the Dodgers.

There was serious concern as to whether the former San Francisco Giants‘ relief ace could return to his former self following the procedure, and though he didn’t pitch a ton of innings after being signed (13.2 in the regular season, six scoreless in the postseason), he was on top of his game during those 24 total appearances.

The Beard whiffed about 8.5 per nine while issuing just over 2.5 free passes per nine. He allowed just one run, didn’t allow a home run, and induced over half of his outs via the ground ball while generating an insane amount of infield popups (37.5 IFFB%). While Brian wasn’t as dominant as his 0.66 ERA would suggest, the metrics back up his comeback as legit. A 2.02 FIP and producing almost half a win in a little over a month’s work will catch some eyes, as will the fact that Wilson was able to go in back-to-back games five times in the regular season and once more come October. While it would be great to add another stellar arm to the pen in 2014, Wilson will get offers to be the unquestioned closer on a number of teams, including playoff-bound ones.

Chris Withrow or Scott Van Slyke? It’s the age-old question and Twitter joke that shall define 2013 and Fu Manchus everywhere. After washing out as a starter in the minors due to injury and the inability to limit his walks, the flame-throwing Withrow found himself a home in the Dodgers’ pen.

The former first-round pick made his big league debut in June and threw 34.2 innings over 26 appearances. He displayed great swing-and-miss stuff (11.16 K/9) but also the bouts of wildness that doomed his career as a starter (3.38 BB/9, 1.30 HR/9). He held opponents to a .165/.246/.289/.535 slash line and was equally effective against righties and lefties (.248 and .239 wOBA, respectively).

Whatever your pitching metric of choice, Chris delivered in his relatively short regular season debut. He posted a 3.03 xFIP, 2.59 SIERA, 73 ERA-, 3.65 tERA, 3.57 FIP, 80 xFIP-, and 2.60 ERA. His WHIP was a miniscule 0.95 and he had 3.31 strikeouts for every walk issued.

Still just 24 years old, Withrow gives the Dodgers a fantastic troika of young, cost-controlled bullpen arms with phenomenal stuff, great swing-and-miss success, and the ability to pitch to any batter no matter the handedness. He’ll begin 2014 as the 6th or 7th inning guy for Mattingly.

Signed for one year and under $3 million last offseason — which ended up at over $3.5 million once incentive bonuses were reached — J.P. Howell put together a very good debut season with the Dodgers, posting a 2.89 FIP. His age 30 season was an improvement across the board from his 2012 showing in Tampa, as his FIP (4.78/2.89); K/9 IP (7.51/7.84); BB/9 IP (3.93/3.34); HR/9 IP (1.25/0.29); GB% (48.9/57.2); and WAR all trended positively.

That dramatic drop in homers allowed is unsustainable going forward, even with a move to a historically pitcher-friendly park like Dodger Stadium. His career HR/FB mark sits at 12.6%, while 2013 clocked in at 4.3%. There will be regression in that area in 2014, and an extra homer here and there for a relief pitcher can mean a significant jump in FIP.

Howell is a free agent, and Dustin Noslerposed the question of whether I’d want him back if the contract had to be three years. Unless it’s a three-year deal for $1-2 million per, the answer is no. J.P. won’t come that cheaply, of course, as he’ll almost certainly be able to find himself $4-5 million per at worst. In a market that often overpays in dollars and years for the most fungible of positions, he could track down an even larger deal.

With Paco in tow, as well as Onelki Garcia and other southpaw arms in Triple-A and Double-A, there’s no need to commit long-term to Howell. If he can be had on a reasonable one- or two-year deal, you absolutely jump on it. But even putting aside Colletti’s poor track record with long-term reliever deals, handing out big three-year terms to pen guys who aren’t elite rarely works out.

After his best season in Dodger Blue in 2012, Ronald Belisario saw a drop-off across the board in 2013. His FIP (3.09/3.64), K/9 IP (8.75/6.49), BB/9 IP (3.68/3.71), HR/9 (0.38/0.40), GB% (64.5/61.4), WAR, and ERA (2.54/3.97) all worsened in his 77 appearances.

Those numbers are especially troubling considering he was used in primarily late-inning and high-leverage situations, pitching in the 7th and 8th innings 83.4% of the time (Via True Blue LA). Fatigue could potentially have been an issue for Ronald, who will head into his age-31 season in ’14.

Batters made more contact against Ronald in 2013 (76.7/80.8 Contact%), and swung and missed less often than last year (10.1/8.8 SwStr%). After avoiding arbitration prior to 2013, Belisario was arbitration eligible this year and was surprisingly non-tendered by the club. Beli then signed a one-year deal for less than $3 million with the White Sox.

Brandon League entered 2013 as the closer after a mostly strong 27+ innings in Los Angeles to end 2012 (2.77 FIP, 8.89 K/9, 4.61 BB/9, mechanical changes down the stretch).

As ludicrous as it would be to insinuate that League is better than Jansen, it would not have been the worst decision if League were able to hold his own in high-leverage situations, as it would free up Kenley to be the fireman of the pen and pitch in those high-leverage spots that arise earlier in the game. Most competent relievers can lock down a three-run lead in the ninth, and Don Mattingly isn’t known as a guy who expands his bullpen philosophy beyond “my closer has to come in when there’s a save situation”. So in theory, it was a bold decision made for the wrong reasons, but one that could have worked out.

But that was only if Brandon League hadn’t reverted back to the Brandon League of old, as he actually set fire to every big spot he came into. His strikeout rate plummeted to under five per nine, he allowed over a homer per nine, and he posted a FIP near 5. His WAR ended up well into the negative range, and he lost his job early in the year.

League still has two years and $15 million remaining on the three-year deal he was gifted — plus a vesting option for 2016 centered around, thankfully, games finished — and if he remains with the club he’s likely to spend that time in mop-up duty and away from any postseason roster.

Odds and Ends

Carlos Marmol and Edinson Volquez were Dodgers. Yes, that really happened. Marmol struck guys out in the regular season, which is par for the course with him. What’s even more of a certainty with him is that he’ll walk guys like he’s putting on a charity walk, and he issued 19 free passes in 21.1 IP in his short time in Los Angeles. He made it into two postseason games and was generally effective despite the potential for disaster. Volquez whiffed 8.36 per nine and limited the walks with 2.57 per nine, but he allowed over a homer and a half per nine with a FIP well over 4. Both righties benefited from a lucky BABIP.

Matt Guerrier threw 30 innings before being DFA’d in July.

Javy Guerra, who was once upon a time also given the high-leverage situations over Jansen, threw just under 11 innings and spent most of the season in AAA. He maintains a 40-man roster spot over Shawn Tolleson (who was taken by the Rangers), because … baseball?

Peter Moylan bested Guerra by almost five innings, but his claim to Dodger fame will be getting DFA’d to make room on the 40-man for Alexander Guerrero.

Skip Schumaker made two relief appearances and threw a pair of scoreless innings while striking out one (!) and allowing six baserunners. Clearly, that’s why the Reds signed him, as super-secret insurance for Aroldis Chapman.

Onelki Garcia, who was fast-tracked through the minors, made just three September appearances. They did not go well. He allowed four walks and a homer in an inning and a third while fanning one. That being said, he’s a young lefty with the stuff to succeed in a major league pen if he can cut down on his walks. If the team doesn’t bring back Howell, Onelki has a great chance to make the Opening Day roster.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. That is no longer debatable and should not be questioned, as he’s backed up this assertion over the last three years with super-elite production. He won his second Cy Young Award in 2013, and it arguably should have been his third straight if voters had gotten it right last year.

Kershaw set career highs in 2013 in IP (236), WHIP (0.92), FIP (2.39), BB/9 IP (1.98), and ERA (1.83). I don’t put that much stock in ERA when evaluating pitchers and analyzing their performance, but damn if a sub-2.00 ERA still doesn’t jump out at you. He fanned nearly a batter per inning, had nearly four and a half whiffs for every walk he allowed, and surrendered less than half a homer per nine innings pitched.

His swing-and-miss percentage has never been higher (11.4 SwStr%); he continues to prove inducing weak contact is a skill (9.5 IFFB%); and opponents managed a slash line of just .192/.244/.277/.521 against him with a .234 wOBA. Clayton possesses three dynamite pitches — fastball, curve, slider — which were all plus-plus pitches in 2013. If he ever gets bored, he can also mess around with the change-up. He has the best curve in the game, one of the best fastballs, and is still just 25 years old. He was a ~7+ WAR player in 2013 and even contributed half a win with his bat, as he hit three doubles, drew five unintentional walks, and clubbed his first career homer in an Opening Day game he literally won by himself.

Zack Greinke came over in the offseason after receiving the largest deal ever signed by a pitcher in terms of annual average value (6 years, $147 million, $24.5 million AAV). His acquisition finally gave the Dodgers the legitimate number 1/2 starter they needed to pair with Kershaw. Greinke has been vastly underrated outside of the analytical community with the exception of his 2009 season, and though the deal is huge, he is more than capable of producing enough to justify it.

As impressive as Greinke’s debut Dodger campaign was, it gets even more amazing when you factor in his tremendous year at the dish, which lifted his value to around ~5 WAR. Zack mashed to the tune of a .328/.409/.379/.788 slash line with a .357 wOBA and 132 wRC+, winning the Silver Slugger for his stellar efforts. Of course, he’s paid to pitch and not hit, but he did not disappoint in holding down opposing hitters. Greinke made 28 starts and pitched just under 178 innings, posting a 3.23 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 0.66 HR/9, and a 3.22 K/BB mark.

Greinke did see an overall decline in whiffs, but the injury was likely a factor, as he fanned about 8.5/9 last season and over 10.5/9 in 2011. Greinke induced significantly more swings and misses than last year (8.5/10.4 SwStr %), as well as more infield popups (9.1/11.2 IFFB%). In a season in which he nearly abandoned his slider and relied more on his cutter and change, he threw one of the more valuable curveballs among all starting pitchers.

Beginning next year, Zack’s salary jumps to between 23 and 24 million dollars through 2018. He can opt out of his contract after the 2015 season if he so chooses, but considering how much he’s due to make after that, and the fact that the Dodgers are in a position to contend for a World Series berth for the foreseeable future, I feel safe in saying we’ll see Clayton and Zack leading the charge for years to come.

Hyun Jin Ryu — in the first year of a six-year deal he signed after the Dodgers won the right to negotiate with him — cemented himself as the number three starter on the club with a very good rookie season. He surpassed all expectations and far outperformed the comparisons he received (from David Wells to ending up as a lefty reliever).

Ryu, pitching in his age 26 season in a new country and against guys he had never faced before, clocked in at ~3.2 WAR. He struck out 7.22/9 IP while walking just 2.30/9 en route to a 3.24 FIP. He allowed 15 homers in his 192 innings and 30 starts, missing some time due to back and foot issues.

He induced ground balls over 50% of the time, and though he doesn’t throw all that hard, he found it fairly easy to miss bats (8.1 SwStr%) and induce weak contact (11.6 IFFB%). Ryu was particularly effective when throwing his changeup, which was the second- or third-most valuable change in all of baseball.

Ryu allowed two earned runs or less in 20 of his 30 times toeing the rubber. He did struggle in his first postseason outing (3 IP, 4 R, 7 baserunners, 1 K) but was excellent his next time out (7 IP, 0 R, 4 baserunners, 4 K). Ryu finished fourth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting and is scheduled to make just $3.5 million in 2014 (with a high of $7 million in 2017 and 2018). I was wrong on Ryu heading into the year, as I didn’t see him as more than a number four if and when he eventually hit his stride.

Hyun Jin gives the club one of the best 1-2-3 trios in the game. If he continues to perform as he did in 2013 while improving in the areas he needs to, his contract will be a bargain, especially in the inflated pitching market. That’s even taking into consideration that he could opt out after 2017 if he remains healthy, as he’d easily hit the innings requirement to void the final year of his deal.

After being acquired from the Miami Marlins in a great deal by Ned Colletti and company, Ricky Nolasco made 15 starts and one relief appearance in Blue while throwing 87 innings. Ricky was quite good following the trade, posting a 3.15 FIP. He whiffed 7.76/9, walked 2.17/9, and induced swings and misses just over 11% of the time. He was worth ~1.2 WAR in that time and was seriously giving Ryu a run for his money as the number three starter come postseason play.

That all changed in Ricky’s last three starts, however, as he allowed 17 earned runs in 12 innings after allowing just 17 runs in his first 74 innings in Los Angeles. His late-season struggles led to a relief outing to close out the regular season, and Don Mattingly ended up choosing to pitch Kershaw on short rest to close out the NLDS instead of starting the Corona native. Nolasco would get his postseason start in the NLCS, lasting four innings while allowing three earned runs, striking out four, and walking one.

While his season didn’t end well, Nolasco wanted to return and he would have been a fine number four at the right price. He instead signed with the Minnesota Twins, and while the Dodgers could have offered him the most money, not giving him the four-year deal he received was the right move.

Chris Capuano had an interesting and odd 2013 following a solid 2012 campaign. He walked less batters (2.45/2.04); gave up less homers (1.13/0.94); induced more ground balls (40.3%/46.4%); and improved his FIP by 40 points (3.95/3.55). However, even with those improvements, he was still a less valuable player (2.2/0.6 WAR). Some of that was bad luck, as his BABIP jumped 50 points and was 34 points higher than his career mark. A lot of that, however, was due to a decrease in missing bats — under 7 Ks per nine — and inducing less weak contact (12.9 IFFB% in ’12, 1.8% in ’13).

As such, the story of Cap’s season was inconsistency, both in terms of his health and his performance. He made 20 starts, and when we put aside the outing he left early due to injury, Chris allowed two earned runs or less in nine starts, three earned runs in two starts, and four or more earned runs in eight starts. The nature of those up-and-down outings are a perfect representation of his 2013.

Capuano made the NLDS roster but was surprisingly left off in the NLCS against the can’t-hit-lefty-pitching Cardinals, even after three scoreless innings in relief against the Braves. The club declined Chris’ mutual option for 2014, and while it’s possible he could return on a cheap deal to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation or a pen role if J.P. Howell is not signed, he’ll more than likely move on, as the club has better internal options.

Chad Billingsley made just two starts in 2013 after his elbow problems from 2012 worsened to the point of Tommy John surgery becoming the only option. It was probably the best option from the start, but Bills and the staff decided to attempt a non-surgical rehabilitation, despite it being historically almost entirely unsuccessful.

Bills is slated to return sometime before the All-Star break barring any setbacks, and when he does return it will likely be in a relief role, at least at the outset. The Dodgers already have four quality starters and could easily add a fifth before the start of the 2014 campaign. A pen position wouldn’t be the worst for a guy who’s missed over a year of action, has great stuff, and has pitched in relief before in his major league career.

If healthy, I always want Chad in the rotation, and he could easily earn his way into the fourth or fifth spot before next season is complete. Bills has always been underrated (career 3.67 FIP and almost 8 K/9), and you can never have enough depth and enough talented arms with swing-and-miss stuff.

What matters most, however, is getting his talented arm back by the time the postseason comes knocking. Chad is in the last year of his deal and will make $12 million, and if by year’s end he’s healthy and back to his old self, I expect the club to pick up his 2015 option.

Josh Beckett‘s short time as a Dodger has been an interesting one. He’s fanned 8.2 per 9 while walking 3.0 per 9, but he’s allowed a copious amount of home runs (1.4 per 9) and runs in general. His 2013 lasted just eight starts and under 50 innings, as he dealt with nerve issues, had to have a rib removed, and contemplated retirement.

There’s no guarantee Josh will be ready for the start of the season, although he is reportedly ahead in his rehab. Much like Bills, Beckett will probably start off in a relief role unless he has a lights out Spring Training.

Heading into the last year of his deal and due almost $16 million, a starting role — even if he were nothing more than league average — would be a much better scenario for the Dodgers than having a $16 million middle reliever, but that seems highly unlikely at the moment.

Odds & Ends

Stephen Fife, pressed into duty with the back-end of the rotation in shambles, made 10 starts. With an uneventful minor league career, there were serious questions as to how much he could contribute, but he was basically league average (~5 innings a start with a 4.35 FIP) and allowed two earned runs or less in seven of those 10 starts. He more than held his own and gave the Dodgers quality innings during his outings. I care not for ERA, but Stephen’s was 2.76 prior to July 6 and 7.82 after, as he dealt with shoulder issues during the year on multiple occasions. He doesn’t walk a ton of guys but he also doesn’t strike a lot of batters out while allowing over a homer per nine. He’ll likely slot in the 6th or 7th starter role in 2014.

Matt Magill, also pressed into duty, made six starts. Hopes were higher for Matt than for Stephen, as Magill’s 2012 in Chattanooga was fantastic (10.33 K/9 IP, 2.93 FIP). The Show proved to be a bit too much for him, however, as he dished out almost two homers per nine and walked an obscene amount of batters (28 in 27.2 innings) while posting a FIP over 7. Magill is still just 24 years old and struck out over 10 per nine in Triple-A this year as he worked through injury issues of his own. He walked far too many in both the majors and minors, but he’s better depth moving forward than most people think, especially if he regains his command. That said, he was just the second pitcher in the last ~100 years to allow four homers and eight or more unintentional walks in one game.

Ted Lilly was healthy enough to start five games as he battled neck and shin injuries before being designated. He posted a FIP over 5, primarily due to him doing what he does best: allow home runs.

Edinson Volquez made five (!) starts in September when the Dodgers had already locked up the division. In those 27 innings, he allowed five homers, almost a hit per inning, 13 earned runs, and whiffed 26.

Entering 2013, the Dodgers had quite the outfield logjam with three major league players under long-term contracts, as well as two prospects who looked like they could easily make an impact within the next year or two.

The name with the most buzz out of those five outfielders was Cuban import Yasiel Puig, who tore up Spring Training before being sent to the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts for more seasoning and maturity. Fans wanted him, and they wanted him in the bigs now. But while lots hated the decision to send him down, it was probably the right call, as Puig had never played above High-A before heading to Tennessee. He only had 59 plate appearances with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes and 95 plate appearances of minor-league ball total entering ’13.

Following injury after injury to the major league outfield, the club promoted Puig; he made his debut on June 3, and #ManBearPuig was born. Puig then hit his first career long ball the next night, ending that game with two homers and five driven in. He capped an amazing first week with his first career grand slam, a shot that practically left Vin Scully speechless.

But Puig’s season wasn’t all double plays and grand slams and mariposas (Cuba’s national flower … history degree!). There were rookie mistakes and growing pains, as with 99.9% of the rookies who play any sport professionally. Puig ran himself into some outs on the bases, missed the cutoff man every now and then, and went through some slumps at the dish as he learned the strike zone and plate discipline. But make no mistake about it: he did in fact grow and made progress as a player, despite what most in the mainstream media would have you believe.

His BB% improved in each of his first three months (3.7/7.6/11.6) and remained in double digits in September and October, when the games “really matter”. After a rough July, he cut down on his strikeouts by 10% in August. He hit to all fields, posting OPS totals of 1.047 and 1.099 to center and right field, respectively. He could stand to swing at a few less pitches out of the zone (38.9%, MLB average is 31%) unless he can up his O-Contact% in the years to come (52.9%, MLB average is 66.6%). So there is still work to be done, improvements to strive for, and adjustments to be made.

Defensively, DRS and UZR absolutely adored Puig in right field, crediting him with 10 and 4.7 runs saved, respectively, which would put him on pace to be a plus defender even with all those mistakes. He also displayed improved instincts on the bases at times — a promising sign for the future — but for the time being, he shouldn’t be stealing bases until he can do so at a far greater clip than 58%.

His mistakes garnered national attention and were mostly blown way, way out of proportion, though Puig could certainly tame his aggression at times. Selective aggression is always a good idea, and there are plenty of players and coaches around to help Yasiel through the process.

All in all, Puig’s final slash line came in at .319/.391/.534/.925 with a .398 wOBA and wRC+ of 160. He smashed 42 extra-base hits, had eight outfield assists, and hit no matter what spot in the lineup he was penciled in at. Puig was one of the best, if not the best, hitters plate appearance for plate appearance in the National League this year — of guys with at least 400 trips to the dish — as he led the league with a 160 wRC+. Yes, I wouldn’t bank on his BABIP remaining at .383 forever, though he’s plenty fast enough to continue getting those infield singles and beating out close plays for a while. Some regression in 2014 is likely, but he’s still an exceptionally valuable piece on an extremely team-friendly deal (five years and $26 million remaining).

Puig just put together a bumpy but incredible ~4.5 WAR rookie campaign, and he’s going to make just $2 million in 2014. At the height of his current contract, he’ll make $7.5 million … in 2018. In a baseball world where the going rate for a win is around $6 million, his bargain contract makes the franchise right fielder all the more valuable. An outfield of Puig, a healthy Matt Kemp, and anybody else looks mighty fine moving forward, so hopefully we get to see it in 2014.

Matt Kemp entered 2013 coming off serious shoulder surgery to repair a badly torn labrum in his left/lead shoulder. It was an unavoidable injury, but the recovery time was stalled by the club allowing him to play through it down the stretch in 2012. Ned Colletti, Don Mattingly, and everybody involved allowed the emotions of trying to sneak into the postseason overwhelm them and cloud their judgment. Six years of Matt Kemp’s future were far more important than a month or two, and the staff’s job was to recognize that and protect the player from himself.

They obviously failed in that respect, and it clearly hampered Kemp early in the season. His shoulder was not 100%, as he struggled early on; he couldn’t get his weight-training regimen to where he needed it to be until June; and his lack of production hurt the team and himself.

Matt hit a horrific .251/.305/.335/.640 through his first 51 games with two homers and ten doubles before injuring his hamstring and hitting the DL for a month (which followed a short bout with numbness in his elbow). After returning from his first DL trip, he was only available for 10 games before returning to the 15-day disabled list with irritation in the AC joint of his left shoulder. During his brief return, Kemp hit .273/.333/.485/.818 with a pair of dingers.

Kemp returned to action again in mid-July and put forth one of his best games of the season, reaching base safely four times via a homer, double, single, and walk. He drove in three and scored a run, but Kemp injured his ankle badly in a ninth-inning freak play at home plate and missed the next two months, returning as the regular season was winding down.

Kemp got into 11 September contests in preparation for a postseason run, and he was sort of back to the Matty of old. Including that July game that resulted in his ankle injury, Kemp mashed to the tune of a .359/.432/.615/1.047 slash line over his final 12 games, with two long balls, four doubles, nine RBIs, and a 5:7 BB:K mark. Extending that back to his last 22 games, he hit .319/.388/.556/.944. Of course, the issue is that those 22 games stretched from late June to late September.

As well as Kemp played down the stretch, and as promising as his presence was for a deep postseason run, the club ultimately made the right decision in shutting him down, as his ankle flared up and was at a serious risk of breaking. Of course, the irony in shutting him down with the playoffs guaranteed and not doing the same thing last year with a long-shot at the playoffs doesn’t escape me, but at least the club learned from their error in judgment.

There’s something key in this season summation that can’t be emphasized enough, so I’ll lay it out once again:

.251/.305/.335/.640

.273/.333/.485/.818

.359/.432/.615/1.047

As The Bison got healthier — and he was never truly healthy during the entire season — he began to hit more like the Kemp of 2011 and early 2012 than the Kemp of late 2012 and early 2013, who was playing with one shoulder. He’ll have an entire off-season to heal from his ankle and shoulder surgeries and move further away from the cleanup of his torn labrum.

—–

I’ve seen countless trade rumors surrounding Kemp this off-season, and of course the team should listen to any GM who proposes a trade. That being said, selling low and trading away Matt for pennies on the dollar is a foolish idea. It’s not at all far-fetched that health will find Kemp this upcoming season after a full off-season of recovery, as we’ve seen players like Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury rebound from seasons lost to injury to still be productive players.

2011 and early 2012 may never happen again after the various ailments that have felled Kemp, but success going forward is more likely than many are willing to believe.

The Dodgers were in need of a center fielder following Kemp’s lost season, and the options they had were not plentiful and not appealing.

The team could have called up Joc Pederson from Double-A, though he was in need of more seasoning and some experts have him pegged as a corner outfielder long-term. Skip Schumaker, who would man center during the NLDS, has made his name on positional versatility, except for the fact that he doesn’t field any position well, including center. Yasiel Puig, the most athletic of all the replacement options, is a perfect right fielder with his cannon of an arm, but lacked the route-running and experience playing the position to be a feasible option in the club’s eyes.

That left Andre Ethier, who had played all of one game and nine innings in center as a major leaguer (that game coming last year), and oftentimes has appeared as though he can’t efficiently man even right field. But the Dodgers were short on options, and they made the choice to go with the safer Ethier over the higher risk/higher reward all-out-style of Puig. It appeared to pay off.

Andre started 70 games in center, 50 in right, and seven in left. And while it’s tough to judge any player on less than one year of defensive metrics, I’m not a big fan of the eye test either. The DRS and UZR metrics had him below average in center, while FRAA had him as well below average overall this season. That said, Dre wasn’t horrendous like many thought he would be in center. Granted, he wasn’t exactly Mike Trout out there either, but he clocked in at -3 DRS and -1.8 UZR, which is actually quite impressive considering some of his earlier seasons in right were outright poor. Given the circumstances, and later his injury, he did an admirable job even if he was exposed at times (like the playoffs) through no fault of his own.

With the lumber, Dre once again failed to adequately hit southpaw pitching, with a line of .221/.275/.338/.613 (.272 woBA, 73 wRC+). But he slashed .272/.360/.423/.783 overall with a .340 wOBA and 120 wRC+, fairly in line with his career numbers minus a drop in slugging of almost 50 points and a drop in wOBA of almost 20 points. Dre walked about 3% more than in 2012 and cut down on his strikeouts by 3% as well.

He once again dealt with injury, missing time down the stretch and being rendered wholly ineffective in the postseason as he battled an ankle malady suffered in early September.

At this point, Dre is what he is, a 2.5-3.5 WAR player who can’t hit lefties and needs to be platooned, but still has value because he can rip righties. Dre has a ton of money left on his deal — 4 years and $69 million plus a 2018 club option for $17.5 million — but he’s still the likeliest of the four outfielders to be dealt, especially if the Dodgers would eat a large portion of his contract.

What 2014 holds for Andre is anybody’s guess. He could easily be traded prior to the season, clearing the logjam in the Dodger outfield. Or — and it would be a pretty sound idea — the Dodgers could decide to keep all four guys, thus deepening a weak bench and covering themselves in the event one of the four outfielders gets hurt, as all four were injured at some point in 2013. Should Andre remain and the club run with four outfielders, he’ll still find plenty of playing time. Kemp, even healthy, will certainly see more rest than he did when he was playing in 399 consecutive games a few years ago. Carl Crawford will be given days off, and the Wild Horse will occasionally find himself in the stable getting a breather.

Andre Ethier is not really a center fielder, nor is he really a star. But if the expectations are toned down and he’s used properly, he can be the great hitter and a highly-effective role player for as long as he remains a member of the club.

Carl Crawford entered 2013 as an afterthought in the minds of most baseball fans. He was coming off of an injury-plagued and unproductive stint with the Boston Red Sox before becoming a salary dump as he headed to the West Coast in the monster Adrian Gonzalez deal.

Once an ultra-elite defensive left fielder who had great speed and baserunning acumen — stealing 50 or more bases five times and posting five seasons in excess of ~4.5 WAR — the Dodgers were hoping to just get a healthy and solid Crawford after he was unable to play for the club following that massive late-2012 deal.

Carl dealt with multiple injuries once again, playing in just 116 games and netting 469 plate appearances. However, Carl got his walk rate back up to a modest 6% while cutting back on the strikeouts, which really hurt him during his short time in Beantown. He also swiped 15 bags in 19 attempts and ranked in the top ten in the NL in percentage of extra bases taken at an excellent 60%.

Carl’s never been a tremendous hitter, and his slash line normalized to around his career mark this season as he hit .283/.329/.407/.736. The big difference was a drop in SLG% of 32 points and 12 points of wOBA. The slugging percentage can likely be attributed to Carl’s continued recovery from Tommy John surgery and the fact that he was never a great power hitter to begin with, so aging isn’t going to help that any.

Heading into 2014 with four years and $82.5 million remaining on his contract, Crawford is a candidate to be dealt if the Dodgers can find a willing partner. They’d have to eat a large portion of the contract, but it would help to alleviate the massive logjam in the Blue Crew outfield. That said, if Carl remains and continues to man left field on a regular basis, he can still be a solid player, as 2013 saw him save 5.5 runs with the leather, contribute positively on the bases, and have a solid offensive campaign (108 wRC+) en route to a roughly ~3 WAR year.

Scott Van Slyke got the Blake DeWitt treatment in 2013, racking up hundreds of frequent flyer miles as he moved between The Show and Triple-A Albuquerque about one billion times.

SVS started 24 games in left field, and DRS and UZR both approved of his short time in place of Crawford (3.0 and 1.4 runs saved, respectively). Of course, Van Slyke wasn’t out there to be a slick-fielding, fu-manchu-wearing man. He was in the lineup to hit for power, particularly against southpaws.

Scott hit just .200/.333/.347/.680 while playing in left but .240/.342/.465/.807 overall with a .353 wOBA and 129 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances. He got on-base at the same clip against righties and lefties (.342), but oddly enough had a reverse platoon split in regards to SLG% (.422 against lefties and .508 against right-handers).

Nevertheless, he’s always killed lefty pitching in the minors a bit more than righties. In fact, he made the postseason roster for that purpose alone. However, you never would have known he was on the roster had he not had that memorable National Anthem standoff with St. Louis Cardinals‘ pitcher Joe Kelly.

Don Mattinglyconsistently and mind-numbingly passed over SVS for Michael Young in the postseason, as Scott accumulated a grand total of ZERO plate appearances as the Dodgers pushed towards a World Series berth. Whether you believed in his minor-league power against lefties or the small sample-size reverse platoon splits during 2013, this was an indefensible move.

Heading into 2014, Van Slyke should without a doubt have a firm place on the 25-man roster as a reserve outfielder/first baseman and right-handed power bat off of the bench. Scott is still pre-arbitration eligible, so he’ll be back on another cheap contract. The Dodgers have gone without a true power bat consistently being available on the bench for some time, and with Scott on a cheap contract and having positional versatility at three of the corners, he’s the perfect guy to help round out the roster.

If you can’t find a bench spot for a .342 OBP/.465 SLG/.353 wOBA/129 wRC+ guy who’s only 27 years old and on a very team-friendly deal, then you should probably reevaluate your roster construction methods.

.345/.402/.638/1.040; .442 wOBA; 191 wRC+; .293 ISO; unexpectedly solid defense at an extremely important defensive position (shortstop) where offense is secondary; and ~5.3 WAR. In any other season, we’d be taking about the likely MVP and certain Silver Slugger winner.

However, 2013 will largely go down as a “what could have been year” for Hanley Ramirez despite the amazing and awe-inspiring numbers you see above. Why? All due to the fact that he only played in 86 games, racked up 336 plate appearances, and suffered through at least four injuries (thumb, hamstring, irritated nerve in back, ribs) while hitting the disabled list three times.

After suffering a thumb injury in the World Baseball Classic and not being able to suit up until the end of April, Hanley soon thereafter suffered a hamstring injury that forced him out once again. Another month went down the drain, but then something amazing happened: the injury gods allowed Ramirez to remain healthy long enough to help lead the Dodgers on a spectacular 42-8 run out of the NL West doldrums.

Unfortunately, Hanley dealt with nagging injuries down the stretch and was put on a “postseason first” plan by the club that included more rest, but the best laid plans of mice and men, as they say. After a scorching NLDS, one Joe Kelly fastball to the ribs ended Ramirez’s effectiveness in the NLCS and, in effect, the Dodgers’ offense and chances of advancing to the World Series.

Heading into 2014, the solid defense can’t exactly be counted on to repeat itself, as Hanley has been a terrible defensive shortstop throughout his career, costing his teams roughly 60 runs over his 10 years in The Show. He’ll also be a year older and is coming off of yet another lower-body injury that will further reduce his range. I don’t expect quite the same level of offensive output either, simply because a .363 BABIP (second-best ever for Hanley and 30 points higher than his career mark) can’t be assumed to occur once again.

That being said, a return to his consistently excellent offensive ways after a pair of down years and league-average seasons — especially if good health finds him and he keeps his strikeouts down — isn’t farfetched at all for Hanley.

Forced into more action than the super-sub role he was originally slated for, Nick Punto performed admirably in 2013 after being acquired late in 2012 as a throw-in in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. In 116 games — 71 of them starts, 33 of those at short — and 335 plate appearances (!), Punto hit .255/.328/.327/.655 with a .296 wOBA, 90 wRC+, and plus defense at two positions, as well as average glove work at a third spot.

Nick saved roughly five runs in the field in 2013 playing second, short, and third. He was at his best filling in at shortstop during HanRam’s multiple DL trips, with DRS and UZR both praising his work (5 and 6.4 runs saved, respectively). On a cheap one-year deal, he’s not a bad bench piece to have, especially considering the plus defense and Hanley’s recent propensity to suffer injuries.

Of course, a lot of fans were understandably not happy about how his season ended, which was him being picked off at second base in a key NLCS situation. Doesn’t sully his body of work, but I don’t even want to imagine if that was Yasiel Puig.

Dee Gordon is 25 years old and has amassed 669 plate appearances in the bigs over the last three years. His career slash line stands at .256/.301/.312/.613 with a .274 wOBA, 73 wRC+, 5.5 BB%, and .056 ISO. He can’t field at a defense-first position, doesn’t walk nearly enough even after career-best rates in both AAA and the majors in 2013, and doesn’t hit for power.

While I would absolutely love for him to learn all of these things during this winter playing in the Dominican, thus allowing him to be Hanley’s backup and a key bench piece in 2014, it’s just not going to happen. Whether Dee can ever consistently be a 25-man roster player with just speed alone isn’t even a certainty.

Juan Uribe‘s 2011 and 2012 campaigns with the Dodgers were so bad that he could have easily been cut heading into the 2013 season and nobody would have been able to argue against such a move. What a difference a year makes.

Uribe was still with the club when the season opened, but he was sent to the bench in favor of 2012 flavor of the month Luis Cruz. After an early flame-out from Cruz, the sure-handed Uribe was given the third base job back, and he proceeded to not just cement himself as the third baseman for the remainder of the season, but put together his best season ever, and one that made him one of the more valuable and underrated Dodgers of 2013.

Uribe has always been an excellent defender at multiple infield positions, so to see him put together a Gold Glove caliber season with the leather is not necessarily surprising. Juan saved the Boys In Blue roughly 16.5 runs with his glove at the hot corner, an especially significant contribution considering the man to his left, Hanley Ramirez, has never been known for his range.

What was quite shocking about Uribear’s 2013 season was his offensive contributions. After hitting .199/.262/.289/.551 over his first two seasons in Los Angeles (143 games, 474 plate appearances, and losing his starting gig), Juan slashed .278/.331/.438/.769 with a .334 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 132 games and 426 plate appearances. An increased BABIP certainly aided Juan to some extent — .322 in ’13, 40 points higher than his career mark — but he also cut down on his strikeouts a bit. More importantly, Juan swung at less pitches outside the zone and more inside the strike zone, while hitting more line drives and fly balls.

Add up the improved offense, always-superb defense, and average to above average baserunning, and we find a ~5 WAR year for Juan. I would have never said this coming into 2013, but after seeing his improvement – and recognizing he likely won’t be as good offensively in 2014 — I’d be in favor of Uribe receiving a two-year deal if he’d accept such an offer.

After “bursting” onto the scene in 2012, Cruz was handed the starting third base gig entering 2013. Dodger fans were enamored with the career minor-leaguer and his 2012 season (.297/.322/.431/.753 with plus defense), but a turn for the worse was obviously coming if Cruz was expected to be the same player in 2013 and do it as a full-time starter.

Cruz, not surprisingly, struggled immensely out of the gate this year, slashing a horrendous .127/.175/.169/.344 with a .156 wOBA and -8 wRC+. The inability to draw a walk while hitting for no power will generally do that to a ballplayer. He was cut and picked up by the injury-ravaged New York Yankees.

Cruz is back with the Dodgers and is playing winter ball in the Mexican Winter League. He has no spot on a major-league roster beyond late-inning defensive replacement going forward, but could be organizational depth.

Mark Ellis‘ tenure with the Dodgers is a pretty simple one to sum up: good to excellent defense, below-average hitting made worse by Don Mattingly‘s insistence on batting him second, and the inevitable leg injury.

2013 provided more of the same old same old from Mark. Ellis saved roughly seven runs with the leather while hitting just .270/.323/.351/.674, posting a .300 wOBA and wRC+ of 92. While he didn’t whiff a lot, he also failed to draw free passes at a good clip.

As was the case with his first year in Los Angeles, Mark hit the DL once again with a leg injury, and only played in 126 games. When he was healthy enough to be in the lineup, Ellis found himself hitting either first or second in 52.9% of his 480 plate appearances. In his two seasons with the Dodgers, Ellis has batted leadoff or second in just under 70% of his 944 plate appearances, though his on-base percentage in those two years was a robust .328.

If for no other reason than the fact that Mattingly can’t help but bat Ellis at the top of the order, it’s a good thing the Dodgers declined Mark’s 2014 option and have decided, in all likelihood, to run with Alexander Guerrero at second base. Ellis’ glove plays as a reserve quite well, but his bat lacks so much punch in an already punch-less group of reserves that unless the Dodgers decide to treat Guerrero more like Yasiel Puig than Hyun Jin Ryu, Ellis doesn’t have a spot to return to.

Ellis could easily find himself commanding a two-year deal for $10-12 million based on his glove and grittiness alone, and if that’s the case, then Ned Colletti need not be interested in retaining his services. Guerrero almost certainly won’t be anywhere near the glove man Ellis is, but it’s also hard to imagine he can’t produce more with the lumber.

Skip Schumaker logged 34 games, including 18 starts, at second base in 2013. He was basically Ellis with the bat, slashing .263/.332/.332/.664 with a .301 wOBA and 93 wRC+. Of course, what matters most with Skip is his constantly talked about versatility in the field, and that’s why he found himself on the team in 2013 following an off-season trade during the winter of 2012.

It should not be necessary to note, although it sadly is, that being able to play multiple positions doesn’t inherently mean you can and do play them well. That’s the case with Schumaker, as he rates out poorly at second base, as well as all three outfield positions. Skip cost the club about 13 runs overall with his glove, and when you look at second base apart from his time in the outfield, DRS and UZR have him at an atrocious -14 and -10.0, respectively.

There’s no reason to bring Schu back for 2014, as the Dodgers need guys manning their bench spots who can field and/or hit. Skip does neither, and even though he would come cheap, he’d be taking a roster spot from a young guy with significantly more upside or a better veteran.

Adrian Gonzalez entered 2013 providing hope for the first base position that the Dodgers haven’t had since James Loney‘s strong push to end 2007. After the late-season trade that sent Adrian from the Boston Red Sox to Los Angeles — and a solid but unspectacular end to the season, offensively — there was hope that another off-season away from his shoulder surgery could bring back a bit of the old San Diego A-Gon.

Gonzalez was better in 2013 than he was in his short time here in 2012, but he was basically the same guy this year that he was when you look at his 2012 as a whole. He hit .293/.342/.461/.803 with a .346 wOBA and 124 wRC+. He compiled 54 extra-base hits, whiffed in just 16% of his plate appearances, and played in 157 games while dealing with a sore neck at the beginning of the year and quad issues at the end of the year.

That said, age and the serious shoulder injury he suffered a couple years back are to blame for his seemingly overlooked decline. Yes, Adrian is still more than capable of carrying the offense at any given time, but he’s nowhere near the player he once was. He was just the 13th most valuable first baseman in baseball from an offensive standpoint, behind guys like Brandon Moss, Adam Lind, Brandon Belt, and Eric Hosmer. Gonzalez’s OBP and SLG have dropped each of the last three years as well, but most shocking is the continued lack of free passes Adrian has been drawing. After a pair of campaigns in which he drew walks in over 13% of his trips to the dish (including a 17.5% mark in 2009, aided by the San Diego Padres‘ roster), Adrian has fallen below 7.3% in both 2012 and 2013.

Defensively, Adrian saved roughly five runs with his glove in ’13 and is still a threat to win a Gold Glove in any given year. Unfortunately, he gives a lot of that back by being one of the slowest players in the league, and he’s near the bottom of the MLB in terms of baserunning.

With five years and $106 million remaining on his contract, simply being better than Loney and friends doesn’t make up for the fact that a player who was once a 4.5-6.5 WAR guy is just no longer that dude anymore. Fortunately, the Dodgers can afford to overpay a bit, but the latter years of his contract are looking bleak. He’ll deservedly get a lot of credit for his .833 OPS in the NLDS and 1.091 OPS in the NLCS, and there’s reason to believe he can stave off a steep decline, but I have to acknowledge that the decline exists. Doing otherwise would just be avoiding the facts.

I was torn on what positional review to include Michael Young in, but then it struck me that whichever one I chose would be a position he couldn’t defend to save his life, so I settled on first base. I’m going to keep this short because Young’s Dodger tenure can be described fairly succinctly with a simple tweet from Paul Boyé following Game 1 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals:

Michael Young's -.527 WPA is the 6th lowest ever for a postseason game

Young hit .314/.321/.392/.713 with a wOBA of .309 and a .340 BABIP in the regular season after being traded to Los Angeles, but his defense and baserunning meant he was worth -0.2 WAR during that time. Regardless, he was basically acquired to be a pinch hitter in the postseason. And … well … in 10 postseason plate appearances — while consistently being selected over Scott Van Slyke, even against lefties — that line fell to a gritty and classy .100/.100/.100/.200 with a .089 wOBA. Oh, and that one hit? An infield single in which the pitcher missed the base.

Swell.

Fun Fact

Who started the second-most games at first base for the Blue Crew in 2013, with a grand total of seven?

A.J. Ellis entered 2013 as a key, but underrated, component to the team’s success. He was a player who patrolled a scarce defensive position and could consistently work counts, provide occasional pop, and handle a deep and talented pitching staff. Of course, it was always unlikely that he’d match his stellar 2012 campaign (.270/.373/.414/.787, 13 HR, 3.7 fWAR/3.3 rWAR), particularly in regards to his offensive contributions. However, the decline was steeper than many expected.

A.J. didn’t have nearly as good a season at the dish, hitting just .238/.318/.364/.682 in 115 games. His wOBA and wRC+ have both fallen each of the last three years (.352/.341/.304 & 126/118/95, respectively), though he did miss time due to a strained oblique and saw his BABIP plummet from .329 in ’12 to .269 in ’13. So injury and luck were factors this year, and moving into 2014, A.J. should show improvement with the bat, but now expectations can be tempered a bit.

Defensive metrics for catchers have definitely advanced in the last half-decade, but they’re still not accurate enough to rely on, especially with a one-year sample size. That said, there are a bunch of insights they provide that seem to match the observations of the eye. Ellis led all of baseball in caught stealing percentage at ~44%, and tied for second in number of baserunners gunned down. However, on passed balls and wild pitches, Ellis was third from the bottom among qualified catchers at -2.3 runs (Yadier Molina led with 5.9). Additionally, though not statistical in nature, A.J. didn’t appear to excel at pitch framing. The Dodgers don’t need him to be Russell Martin in regards to framing — though that would help immensely — but improvement in areas besides throwing arm and throwing accuracy would be welcome.

With better health and some luck he could see a rebound in 2014, but even if that never happens, as long as A.J. continues to draw walks and call a good game, he can still be a valuable complementary piece to the club (~2-3 WAR). And of course, he’s still the man who hosts ‘Between Two Palm Trees‘ and calls out Don Mattingly for his incessant bunting fetish.

That should never be forgotten or overlooked. Put a number on that, stat nerds.

Tim Federowicz is your classic no-offense, all-defense backup catcher. FedEx appeared in a career-high 56 games and amassed a career-high 173 plate appearances in 2013, aided by the A.J. injury and Ramon Hernandez being Ramon Hernandez.

Tim hit just .231/.275/.356/.631 with a .266 wOBA, and his career slash line isn’t much better. Yes, he’s sort of young and hit in the minors, but that primarily happened in the hitter-friendly confines of Albuquerque in the PCL, so I wouldn’t put much stock in that. He’s not here to hit, and he’s not likely ever going to, but as long as he can play good defense he’ll be a valuable backup/personal catcher.

Federowicz caught just under 30% of the guys who ran on him, which is more than acceptable for a backup. However, despite the reputation as a clearly better defender, he put up -0.7 runs in terms of blocking pitches, which would result in a -1.8 if given A.J.’s playing time. Anecdotally, I do think FedEx looks more athletic behind the plate, but he’s clearly not a defensive wizard at the moment.

In any case, he’s a cheap backup, and even on a team with a gigantic payroll, that still has value in terms of roster flexibility. So given continued progress, FedEx figures to be a solid reserve catcher that should stick around in that role for years to come.

Yes, this is the final installment of the 2012 Season Review for the Dodgers, and if you want to catch up on the others, then you can check out this tag here.

Otherwise, in the tables listed below, I have calculated the WAR (along with its components), value, and surplus value of every player on the Dodgers payroll in 2012.

It’s not meant to be taken literally (“A.J. Ellis is a better player than Matt Kemp!“), but I always learn stuff about the team that I hadn’t previously realized when I do it.

—–

The three best players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were A.J. Ellis, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, in order. The most valuable players, according to surplus value, were A.J. Ellis, Luis Cruz, and Mark Ellis.

The three worst players on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Gordon, Juan Rivera, and Alex Castellanos. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Juan Uribe, James Loney, and Rivera.

In related news, did you realize the Dodgers are STILL paying Juan Pierre? Good grief.

The three best pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Chris Capuano, in order. The most valuable pitchers, according to surplus value, were Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, and Capuano.

The three worst pitchers on the Dodgers, according to WAR, were John Ely, Matt Guerrier, and Mike MacDougal. The least valuable players, according to surplus value (excluding dead money), were Ted Lilly, Guerrier, and Ely.

In related news, you can see why the Dodgers want to upgrade their rotation, as the team defense was decidedly average, but the staff RA WAR outperformed their FIP WAR by six wins.

Kenley Jansen entered 2012 as the set-up man with elite stuff, freed up to face the opponents’ best hitters should they be due up before the ninth inning. It was the perfect scenario, considering the closer role is a vastly overrated entity. Though Jansen was slotted correctly, he quickly found himself as the closer following some early struggles in that role by Javy Guerra.

Jansen closed 2012 with his third-straight dominant season, posting a 2.40 FIP and 1.81 SIERA while whiffing a magnificent 13.71/9 IP. He appeared in a career-high 65 games and 65 innings, and though he allowed a few more long-balls (six homers after three in 2011 and none in 2010), he more importantly cut down impressively on his free passes for a third consecutive campaign (5.00/4.36/3.05 per nine innings). Also of note is his continued ability to induce infield popups, which has always been excellent (16% in 2010 & 10.9% in 2011), as he reached a new career best in 2012 (19.4 IFFB%).

To put it another way, as infield popups are essentially as effective as strikeouts, Jansen “whiffed” roughly 60% of the hitters he faced in 2012. That is insane, obviously.

Though all has been well from a between-the-lines perspective, Jansen has seen his short career put in jeopardy multiple times due to a heart ailment that has afflicted him for parts of the 2011 regular season, Spring Training of 2012, and most recently the 2012 regular season. While Jansen has thankfully been able to return from all three bouts, the irregular heartbeat has been recurring, which is troublesome for his health and career prospects.

Jansen and the Dodgers have taken action though, as Kenley recently underwent heart surgery to correct the problem. All seems well thus far, as no complications from the surgery have been revealed, and all reports indicate he’ll be ready to go for 2013. He’ll recuperate for at least three months prior to resuming baseball activities, and with his electric stuff, fantastic ability to get hitters to swing-and-miss, and three straight seasons of improving WAR (1.1/1.3/1.9), the sky is the limit for the former backstop as he continues to refine his new craft.

Acquired for Leon Landry and Logan Bawcom, Brandon League arrived having been stripped of his closer duties in Seattle. His 2012 with the Mariners was a season typical of your average middle reliever, as League was fanning only 5.44 per nine while walking far too many (3.83/9 IP), and had a 3.45 FIP and 4.43 SIERA. I was against the trade when it happened and League did nothing to assuage my mind in his first few outings, as he was charged with six earned runs through his first seven games with Los Angeles.

League rebounded to end 2012 strongly though, allowing one earned run from August 21 on. His strikeout rate ticked up in LA to 8.89/9 IP, the highest it had been since 2009, though he walked even more at 4.61/9
IP. His new-found success was attributed to mechanical flaws that were corrected by Rick Honeycutt and his staff.

Whether that’s true and whether his success carries over into the future or not, the 29-year-old heads into free agency banking that teams will be looking at his recent performance over his career track record that consists of 6.71 K/9 IP, 3.10 BB/9 IP, a 3.81 FIP, and a WAR that’s eclipsed 1.0 twice.

After a time spent pretending to be Tony Montana, Ronald Belisario returned to the States and MLB in 2012. Following a 25-game suspension for violating baseball’s drug policy, Belisario made his season debut in early May and would go on to appear in a bullpen-high 68 games and 71 innings.

Belisario posted a 3.09 FIP and 2.80 SIERA, and after starting the year out-pitching his peripherals and shiny ERA, had a very good season after his year off. He fanned just shy of a batter per inning while walking 3.68 per nine and inducing a mess of ground balls (64.5 GB%), which resulted in just three homers allowed in ’12.

Belisario, after all of his troubles, is line for a nice raise from the $480,000 he made on a one-year deal in 2012. He qualified for Super Two status and is arbitration eligible, and he will be an integral part of the pen in 2013.

Javy Guerra entered 2012 as the Dodgers closer, though not the most talented reliever on the team, which is perfectly fine and is actually my preferred method of bullpen management. Following a rocky start and a liner to the head, Guerra was removed in favor of Jansen in early May.

After allowing eight earned runs in his first 14 games, which included three blown saves and a pair of losses, Guerra settled down before succumbing to a knee injury that ended his season in early September.

Though Guerra’s season is largely viewed as a failure by many, his 2012 was, in actuality, little different from his 2011 season. His strikeout rate increased (7.33/7.40), his HR/9 IP rate improved (0.39/0.20), and his FIP (3.30/3.34) and WAR remained stable (0.9/0.8).

Guerra’s “struggles” were two-fold. First, the self-inflicted portion: Guerra walked too many guys in 2012, as his BB/9 IP jumped from a high 3.47 to a terrible 4.60 per nine. That must be corrected for Javy to see more success. Second, his BABIP increased to .321 from .261. In other words, after getting lucky in 2011, 2012 saw that luck shift entirely the other way. There is almost certainly a happy medium, and in that place, Guerra is a solid contributor to the pen as a middle reliever.

After an excellent 2011 that ended with a new established role in the pen, Scott Elbert finished 2012 on the DL with an elbow injury that felled him from late August on. I wouldn’t be shocked if the elbow bothered him all year, as his numbers fell across the board.

Elbert struck out less per nine (9.18/7.99), gave up more homers (0.27/0.83), and saw a significant drop in FIP (2.73/3.80) and SIERA (3.23/3.76). The lefty also uncharacteristically struggled against his fellow southpaws in comparison with his 2011 success (.271/.342/.342/.684 after a .191/.267/.227/. 494 slash line the year before).

With Randy Choate a possibility to return if he and the club share a mutual interest, and young Paco Rodriguez emerging as another option, Elbert’s health and success in Spring Training will go a long way in determining his future with the club after years and years of injuries finally appeared to be behind him.

Shawn Tolleson, the club’s top relief prospect heading into 2012, got the call in early June before getting the Blake DeWitt treatment and shuffling between The Show and the minors. Though he moved around, he ended up appearing in 40 games and just under 40 innings.

Known for his swing-and-miss ability and domination of the minors, Tolleson whiffed 9.32/9 IP while posting a 4.08 FIP and 3.78 SIERA. He did struggle with his control at times, walking 4.78 per nine, and he allowed almost a homer per nine.

Five outings — in which he allowed between two and four runs in each — skewed the 24-year-old righty’s numbers a bit, though not as much as his massive struggles against the 68 lefties he faced, who hit a combined .316/.426/.471/.897 against the Texan. On the other side of the coin, Shawn was death to righties, holding them to a .152/.244/.207/.453 line.

Those lefty struggles not withstanding, the future is exceptionally bright for Clayton Kershaw‘s former teammate. Tolleson will have a prominent role in the pen going forward — whether that role begins at the outset of 2013 or not – and a young pen featuring Jansen/Tolleson/Rodriguez/Guerra should have fans excited.

Acquired in the Hanley Ramirez deal, Choate arrived with the reputation of a lefty specialist (.201/.278/.252/.530 career) and continued to dominate his brethren in 2012, limiting them to a .158/.243/.190/.433 slash line.

Though he held lefties down in 2012, Choate was mediocre overall after arriving, posting a 4.89 FIP, 4.16 SIERA, and a negative WAR (-0.1). Most troubling was his propensity for issuing free passes, to the tune of 6.08 per nine in his 36 appearances.

Just 21 and fresh out of college in the spring of 2012, Paco Rodriguez found himself in 11 games down the stretch and whiffed a very impressive 8.1 per nine over those 6.2 innings. He posted a 3.09 FIP and 4.17 SIERA — as well as a .143/.200/.133/.333 slash line against lefties — in his very small sample size of a career, and holds the distinction of being the first 2012 draftee to debut in The Show.

Rodriguez enters 2013 with just north of 25 professional innings under his belt, and could very likely open 2013 on the major-league roster. Paco’s immediate future hinges on Elbert’s health, the signing of some other free agent lefty specialist, and his 2013 Spring Training performance.

While he has stuff to improve upon (like his control), if he can solidify a spot in the pen he would provide the Dodgers with another lefty and a cheap bullpen option with a ton of upside.

Jamey Wright, who made the team out of Spring Training after signing a minor-league deal, surprised most with a solid campaign, surpassing expectations in his 66 appearances and 67.2 innings pitched.

Wright fanned 7.18 per nine while posting a 3.39 FIP and 3.15 SIERA. His splits were quite wacky all the way around, as he allowed southpaws to get on-base more, but righties knocked him around in terms of extra-base hits (.252/.365/.230/.595 versus LH & .283/.337/.329/.666 versus RH).

As alluded to above, Wright did struggle with his control, as he allowed around 4.0 BB/9. He did a great job, however, of keeping the ball in the park — 0.27 HR/9 — which saved him from those walks becoming more damaging. Hitters actually benefited from a bit of luck against him with a .324 BABIP, but Wright’s strong propensity for inducing ground balls (67.3%) and infield popups (12.0% IFFB) allowed him to escape his control problems relatively unscathed.

Having lived off minor-league deals, which he turned into major-league roster spots, for most of the past decade, Wright will head into 2012 — his age-38 season — with a strong likelihood of obtaining a major-league contract. Earning just under $1.5 million last year, Wright will probably receive a small raise, and the Dodgers could do a lot worse.

Odds & Ends

Matt Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the shelf with right elbow inflammation, but managed to return late in the season and appeared in 16 games totaling 14 innings. It did not go well. He pitched to a 6.31 FIP and 4.86 SIERA while walking seven, hitting a batter, and allowing a total of 16 baserunners, six earned runs, and 56 total bases against.

He has a year remaining — at $3.75 million — on the ridiculous three-year deal that Ned Colletti signed him to in late-2010. Whether he has a place in the bullpen though, considering the superior arms around him, is another story entirely.

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Josh Lindblom, prior to being dealt to Philadelphia in the Shane Victorino trade, struggled despite some solid peripherals following a breakout 2011. Though he struck out 8.12/9 IP while walking 3.40/9 IP, Lindblom put up a 5.07 FIP, though his SIERA was a fine 3.66.

What really killed him was the long-ball, as following a 2011 in which he didn’t allow a single homer in almost 30 innings, Josh was touched up for nine dingers before being traded.

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I honestly forgot Mike MacDougal was a Dodger in 2012, but he began the year on a ludicrous guaranteed one-year major-league deal. He quickly flamed out, lasting seven games and 5.2 innings too long. In that short time, he allowed 15 baserunners, five earned runs, and 32 total bases.

After Clayton Kershaw‘s 2011 performance, for which he won the Cy Young Award, I wasn’t sure I could be more impressed with him going forward. That’s not to say I was certain he had peaked, but it would no longer come as a surprise to me or anyone else. What impressed me so much about his 2012 season though, was the fact that he had another fantastic season while pitching through physical adversity.

Kershaw had to deal with plantar fasciitis throughout most, if not all of, the campaign, on top of a late-season hip injury that could have led to surgery, and an early-season illness that forced him to last just three innings in his 2012 debut.

After 2011 bests in FIP (2.28), SIERA (2.81), xFIP (2.84), BB/9 IP (2.08), and WAR (7.2), Clayton followed with excellent marks across that spectrum yet again, with a 2.53 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 3.25 xFIP, 2.49 free passes per nine, and a 6.3 WAR. His strikeouts remained above one per inning (9.57/9 IP in 2011, 9.05 in 2012), and he backed up his 0.98 WHIP last season with a 1.02 mark this year.

Kid K has made his living missing bats and inducing weak contact, and he continued that trend in 2012, inducing a mess of infield popups (12.2 IFFB%) and increasing the amount of ground balls he generates for a fourth consecutive season (39.4%/40.1%/43.2%/46.9%).

In line for his second consecutive Cy, and fresh off of winning the Roberto Clemente Award, Clayton heads into 2013 on the last year of the two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration. Slated to make just $11 million in ’13, the underpaid Clayton should have already received a long-term extension. Locking up the young stud southpaw should be the primary objective of Ned Colletti and his staff going forward.

Entering 2012, Chad Billingsley was coming off of a pair of interesting and contrasting seasons: 2010 was his best season ever, while 2011 saw him take a step back. Always the lightning rod for Dodgers fans, especially with Jonathan Broxton away in Kansas City, Bills was at somewhat of a crossroads, as a good campaign would go a long way with the organization, while a sub-par one could have easily landed him elsewhere.

Bills struggles resulted in a WAR cut in half from the previous year (2.1, down from 4.5) and questions about his mechanics and health. Still shy of his 28th birthday, Billingsley has every chance to rebound, and much like his poor second half of 2009 led to his best professional season, said rebound in 2012 would not be the least surprising to me. In fact, I’ll call it right now, as I fully expect Chad to be productive as Kershaw’s running mate next season, provided he is in fact healthy.

And unfortunately, that caveat became reality, as Chad suffered from an elbow injury that sent him to the DL twice, felled him permanently from August 24th on, and may require Tommy John surgery if plasma injections and rest don’t suffice as a rehab method.

Prior to being shut down, Chad started 25 games, and in just shy of 150 innings, had been excellent. A FIP of 3.34, SIERA of 3.83, and HR/9 of just 0.66 worked to produce a 2.5 WAR. On pace for another 3.5 WAR season, what was most impressive about the 2012 version of Billingsley was the fact that he had cut down significantly on his walks, trimming a 4.02 BB/9 mark down to 2.71.

While Bills isn’t the pitcher Kershaw is, we saw what cutting down on free passes did for Clayton, and it was working well for Chad too before his elbow got in the way of what was shaping up to be one of his best seasons. The Dodgers were able to lock him up prior to the 2011 season for a team-friendly three-year contract with a club option for 2015, and Chad will make $11 million this upcoming year whether or not he can throw a pitch.

A 2013 prediction for Chad really can’t be accurately made, as we have little idea whether the treatments he’s presently undergoing will ultimately allow him to pitch, though the most recent news is very promising. Tommy John surgery would wipe out his entire season, but if the treatments work and he’s able to suit up for the Dodgers next year, there’s ample reason to expect another solid year.

Chris Capuano was signed to a back-loaded two-year, $10 million deal with a 2014 mutual option, and while I wasn’t thrilled with the back-loaded nature of the deal, I was alright with him being brought on as a #4 starter. Granted, with the Dodgers #3 being Ted Lilly, they really had no #3 and a plethora of #4/#5 options, but with Cap there was at least some upside.

Coming off a bounce back 2011 season following injury issues, Capuano had a solid #3/#4 type season, whiffing 7.35/9 IP while issuing 2.45 BB/9. Like the two men to follow in this review, Chris struggled in limiting home runs, allowing over one per contest. Those walk and homer numbers were improvements over his 2011 season with the Mets, but he also struck out almost a batter less per nine than he did in his lone season in New York.

A look at his FIP, SIERA, and WAR don’t offer a clear picture beyond the aforementioned #3/#4 starter status, as he improved his FIP from 2011 (4.04/3.95), as well as his WAR (1.4/2.3), but saw a decently sharp increase in his SIERA (3.63/3.90). Cap allows a lot of hard contact (~20% LD career) and fly balls (~40% career), so pitching in a park like Dodger Stadium helps to mitigate the struggles associated with that.

Perhaps most interesting is Chris’ career pre- and post-ASG splits. In 2012, Capuano allowed a .232/.295/.374/.669 line to opponents pre-break, but that ballooned to .281/.317/.454/.770 following the mid-summer classic. Those numbers hold true for his career, as he’s always been more of a first-half pitcher (.257/.320/.414/.734 vs. .273/.331/.473/.804 with BABIP and K/BB marks that have remained steady).

He’ll enter 2013 as the #3 or #4 starter, and if he can up that strikeout rate a bit, he could be solid yet again.

Signed to a back-loaded two-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2014 — a deal I was against at the time and still am upset with — Aaron Harang was exactly what he has been since Dusty Baker ruined his arm a few years back: an overpaid #4/#5 starter.

In 31 starts and just under 180 innings, Harang struck out a paltry 6.56 per nine while issuing an poor 4.26 free passes per nine. His shiny ERA may lead many to see his season as a success, but dig just a bit deeper and you find a 4.14 FIP, 4.87 SIERA, and just a 1.7 WAR.

Harang hasn’t exceeded 2.3 WAR since 2007, has not struck out more than seven per nine since 2009, and has seen his walk rate trend up in the last four seasons. That’s … uh … not good, and barring a trade, Harang will return and try to hold off age for another 30 or so starts.

Prior to his injury, in an obviously small sample size, the veteran lefty posted a 3.92 FIP and 4.81 SIERA while seeing a sharp drop in his strikeout numbers from 2011 and his career rate (5.73 in ’12, 7.38 in ’11, 7.64 career).

Entering the final year of a back-loaded three-year-deal that will pay him $12 million in 2013, Lilly no longer has no-trade clause protection, but considering that he is coming off of an injury to his pitching shoulder and will be 37 for the duration of next season, there’s not much value to be had on the trade market anyway.

Lilly will reportedly be available for Spring Training barring any setback, and with a rotation already set, there’s a chance Lilly winds up in the pen to complement Scott Elbert and/or Paco Rodriguez, occupying a long-relief role and spot-starting when necessary.

Acquired in the massive deal with Boston, Josh Beckett arrived on the heels of an overblown but still bad 21 starts with the Red Sox in 2012. I say overblown because he was pitching like a #3 starter in 2012, but with all of the focus on his personality and the September collapse of 2011, you’d have thought he was pitching his way out of baseball entirely.

His results were terrible in Boston (5.23 ERA), but Beckett had posted a 4.26 FIP and 4.28 SIERA before the deal, while walking 2.7 per 9. Most concerning were his drop in strikeouts to roughly 6.5 per 9 after five straight seasons of over 8.0 per 9.

Upon his arrival, Beckett was solid and showed improvement, striking out almost 8.0 per 9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.81 SIERA. While some might attribute that to the new manager and new clubhouse environment, it’s far more likely due to the weaker league and weaker division, offensively-speaking.

Beckett is under contract for another two seasons, each at $15.75 million, and slots in as the #2 or #3 starter heading into 2013. Going into his age-33 season, Beckett is no sure thing to transform back into the front of the rotation starter he once was, though that’s what the Dodgers will need out of him if they don’t go out and get an arm in the off-season.

Acquired from the Phillies for a PTNBL that eventually became pitcher Ryan O’Sullivan, Joe Blanton turned in a solid ten starts for the Blue Crew, posting a 3.74 FIP and 3.61 SIERA while whiffing 8.0 per 9 and walking 2.5 per 9.

Blanton’s strikeouts were a pleasant surprise, as his career mark sits just above 6.0 per 9, though he did struggle with the home run, as usual, allowing over one per game as a Dodger. Blanton’s overall season numbers are fifth-starter material, as he posted a 1.7 WAR, though his peripherals were good enough to be a #4.

After making $8.5 million each of the last two seasons, Blanton heads to free agency, and entering his age-32 season, he’ll certainly be looking for at least a two-year commitment from a team. The Dodgers will be after an arm or two, and there are worse options than him, but with the Dodgers flush in cash I doubt he’ll be a target.

Odds & Ends

Nate Eovaldi made 10 starts for the Dodgers prior to being dealt to Florida for Hanley Ramirez. In those ten starts, the 22-year-old righty struck out just 5.4/9 IP while walking 3.2/9 IP. He put up an FIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.67.

While some are high on his stuff and potential as a #3 starter, I always saw him as a reliever due to his low strikeout numbers, and for the chance that Hanley hits again, it was a great trade in my book.

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Stephen Fife, acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal that made no sense at the time, made just five spot-starts for the Dodgers in 2012. Everything I saw from the 26-year-old profiles as a bullpen arm who can spot-start here and there.

With an FIP of 4.14 and a SIERA of 4.67, I suppose he could be a fifth starter, but again, he seems to profile as a fungible relief arm with his lack of swing and miss stuff and the decrease in strikeouts as he’s advanced levels to face more competent hitting.

Andre Ethier, in his age-30 season and coming off a couple of years in which he had to deal with injuries, spent time on the DL again this past season, which limited him to just 146 games. Oblique injury aside, Dre actually had one of his best campaigns as a pro, posting a ~3.1 WAR that included average baserunning (~0.0) and below-average fielding (~-3.0).

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With the bat, Ethier posted a .284/.351/.460/.811 slash line with a .350 wOBA and 124 wRC+. While his power did jump from the previous year (.129 to .176 ISO), which should have been expected with his ’11 pinkie injury healed, he did display a troubling tendency at the plate, as he walked less (10.5/8.1 BB%) and struck out more (18.7/20.1 K%) than in 2011. His 2012 BABIP of .333 is consistent with his career mark of .324 and his average on balls-in-play in all but one of his major league seasons, so luck doesn’t really factor into the larger picture for Andre.

While his walks and strikeouts make one pause, what doesn’t shock us anymore is his continued ineptitude against southpaws. In 2012, Andre hit – if we can even use that word – .222/.276/.330/.606 against lefty hurlers, and he was somehow worse than his career slash line of .238/.296/.352/.649. Simply put, Ethier can’t, won’t, and never will hit lefties with the amount of consistency that an everyday player should. Sure, he’ll garner the occasional base-knock against one of his own kind, but Don Mattingly would be wise to institute a firmer platoon in right if Ned Colletti could ever actually provide him with a platoon partner who isn’t as putrid as your Juan Rivera-types Uncle Ned always gravitates towards.

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Heading into year one of a 5-year, $85 million dollar contract that has a great chance of becoming a $100 million deal, Andre Ethier no longer needs to be the second-best bat on the squad, but if struggles in the box continue for a couple of new additions, he could end up being the second-best offensive player once again in 2013 … which might not be a good thing.

After an amazingly elite 2011 that saw him finish second in MVP voting — even though he was the best player in the National League last year — Matt Kemp had to spend far too much of 2012 as you see him above. Kemp’s season is really quite easy to break down: when healthy, he was elite, but unfortunately, he was injured often.

Kemp, through the first month of the season, picked up right where he left off in 2011, to the tune of a monstrous .417/.490/.893/1.383 slash. Let that sink in for a moment; through the season’s first 23 games, Matt Kemp was getting on-base nearly half the time and slugging just shy of .900, a number most players would dream of for their OPS. He had 12 homers, four doubles, and a 21:13 K:BB ratio in that span, and while he wasn’t going to be able to maintain that type of slugging prowess, it just goes to show how dominant a stretch he was in.

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Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end, but for Matty it wasn’t just normal regression that leaped in his path. He injured his hamstring in early May, and after attempting to play through it, hit the shelf for a 15-day DL stint. He returned when first eligible and managed to make it two games before re-injuring the same hamstring.

After missing the next 37 games, Kemp returned and once again swung the bat with authority, hitting .325/.372/.488/.860 over his next 40 games, ending on August 26. Why August 26? Because on August 27 and 28, Kemp’s season changed for good, as The Bison injured the labrum in his left shoulder, his knee, and likely suffered a minor concussion after running into the center field wall in Colorado on consecutive nights.

Though he had a small stretch at the end of the year where his old powerful self was on display at the dish, Kemp massively struggled while playing with what was revealed to be a serious labrum tear. His slash line was a putrid .214/.267/.420/.686, and as I wrote multiple times, the simple fact that the Dodgers allowed him to play through it is idiotic.

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Even with such an injury-filled season in which he appeared in just 106 games, Kemp still managed to be the Dodgers’ best hitter, going .303/.367/.538/.905 with a .383 wOBA, .236 ISO, 146 wRC+, 23 HRs, and 47 XBHs. We know Kemp is, at his best, average defensively (with a plus arm), but in 2012 he cost the Dodgers roughly 9 runs in the field. How much of that could be attributed to his hamstring and shoulder injuries I won’t begin to assume, but I’ve never felt Kemp was as much a detriment in the field as the numbers suggest.

His running was obviously affected by the hamstring though, and by the end of the season Kemp had swiped nine bags and been caught four times. Taking into account the severity of Kemp’s hamstring and shoulder injuries, he should trend upwards in 2013 on the basepaths, though probably not to the level of 2011.

Following his 8.0+ WAR campaign in 2011, Kemp’s ~3.5 WAR in ’12 is impressive considering what he had to deal with injury-wise. A return to health in 2013 will hopefully bring with it a return to his 2011 numbers.

On the roster solely based on his excellent defense, Tony Gwynn Jr. appeared in 103 games before being designated for assignment. Gwynn would clear waivers, accept a minor-league assignment, and find himself in AAA Albuquerque to finish off the season.

Gwynn started 43 games in center, but both his offense and defense suffered in comparison to 2011. Gwynn hit just .232/.276/.293/.569 overall with an atrocious .251 wOBA, and after saving the Dodgers roughly nine runs in 2011, that fell to ~2.5 runs saved in 2012.

Gwynn can easily be a fourth/fifth outfielder for a team because of his defense, even if it is on the decline, but he’s not the right fit for this Dodgers team, even with their need for a backup center fielder.

Elian Herrera had to fit into these reviews somewhere, and considering that he started nine games in center, he’ll slot in here. In those nine starts, he hit .214/.371/.286/.657, not far off from his slash line overall in 2012 of .251/.340/.332/.672 with a .304 wOBA. Herrera did show an impressive eye at the plate, walking 10.7% of the time.

Defensively, he was below-average in center and above-average at the corners, not necessarily demonstrating a defensive prowess that would make him valuable in spite of his hitting.

Heading towards age 28, he profiles as an end of the bench player, at best.

Left field has been, is, and will in all likelihood continue to be, a vast wasteland for the Dodgers. That is, unless Carl Crawfordreturns to his Tampa Bay form in 2013 or the Yasiel Puig era — whenever that actually begins — proves to be worth the wait.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s review 2012, which was a comedy of mediocrity flanking Matt Kemp‘s right side.

I start with Shane Victorino, not because he was any good, but because he carries with him name value. Coming off a career year in 2011, he dropped off significantly in 2012. Following a campaign in which he slashed .279/.355/.491/.846 with a .368 wOBA, The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .255/.321/.383/.704 with a .310 wOBA this past season. That line fell even further after he was dealt to the Dodgers, as he hit a putrid .245/.316/.351/.667 with a .297 wOBA in Dodger Blue.

Known as an elite baserunner with a great glove in center, some pop, and decent on-base skills, Victorino’s offensive numbers crashed across the board in 2012 from his 2011 and career marks. He set or tied career worsts in ISO (.128), OBP (.321), wOBA (.310), wRC+ (94), and SLG% (.383).

Shane still managed to provide some value through his legs (~5.0 baserunning) and glove (~2.5 fielding), and he ended up posting a ~3.0 WAR in 2012, but only ~1.0 WAR after the trade.

Reports have Shane seeking a long-term deal this year as he hits free agency, and though he’s intimated at returning only as a starter, with the aforementioned Crawford and Puig signed to long-term deals themselves — not to mention the fact that heading into his age-32 season — there’s no place in a crowded Los Angeles outfield for the three-time Dodger.

After being released by the Angels and qualifying to be a Dodger based on his “veteranness”, Bobby Abreu started 42 games in left for the Dodgers in 2012, the second-most of any player on the team behind the previously-discussed Victorino.

After a splashy start to his Dodger stint (.318/.430/.424/.854 in his first 24 games, buoyed by a .438 BABIP, no less), Abreu was right back to the player that he was at the end of his Angels career, the one that got him DFA’d: .209/.325/.302/.627 over his final 68 games as a Dodger, which included a trip to the minors.

Juan Rivera started 30 games in left, hitting .282/.313/.376/.689 in the process. As he started more games at first than in left in 2012, he’ll get a more depressing detailed write-up in that Season Review.

Let’s just say his WAR was ~-0.3 and move on to other, less predictable matters.

Hanley Ramirez was once a stud shortstop (based solely on his bat, of course), a young player a franchise could build around. Fast forward to 2012 and Han-Ram was just a struggling player acquired by the Dodgers in an effort to upgrade at a position of need and make a run at 2012.

Acquired for Nate Eovaldi and Scott McGough, Hanley arrived as a third baseman swinging the lumber to the tune of a paltry .246/.322/.428/.750 slash line with a .326 wOBA. For the defense-first position of shortstop, that’s acceptable, but for a player of Ramirez’s offensive stature and talent, that’s a far cry from a franchise building block. Additionally, even though he plays a defense-first position, fielding prowess is the last thing anyone would ever note Hanley for.

While he hit better with the Dodgers, primarily as a shortstop, it wasn’t by much, and that came with a worse BB%, a higher K%, and a 48-point bump in BABIP from his 2012 Marlins stint. While his BABIP with the Dodgers moved closer to his career mark, he’s suffered a drop in that area the last couple of years, as it was once routinely north of .325. Factoring in a loss of speed with age, I wouldn’t bet on that BABIP magically leaping back to its earlier resting place. Why? Because with age, attrition, his injury history, and his loss of speed, he won’t exactly be beating them out in droves.

As I touched upon previously, Hanley is a terror with the glove, and it really shows when you take a look at the advanced metrics. Taking on that task reveals a mind-boggling 14 runs that Hanley cost his 2012 employers while manning both short and third. The eye test? Judging by Twitter reactions, I doubt there’s anybody who would argue with the metrics. It’s important, because that strikingly bad showing left Hanley with a paltry ~2.4 WAR, a slight bounce back from his 2011 WAR of ~1.1, but nothing to write home about after a previous string of five seasons in which his WAR never fell below 4.0 and reached as high as 7.5.

The Dodgers best bet moving forward is to have Hanley play third and an actual shortstop who can field the position play short. How Ned Colletti would go about acquiring that shortstop is a different question though, so for now, the best options would appear to be either Dee Gordon or Luis Cruz.

Dee Gordon began the 2012 season as the starting shortstop, spent much of the middle portion of the year on the DL with a thumb injury, and ended the year as a pinch-runner. While his offensive limitations were obvious, and his defense was in serious need of improvement, it was hoped that he could scrape by and get on enough to use his fantastic speed to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers.

Unfortunately for Dee, the Dodgers, and OBP-lovers everywhere, 2012 was a lost season for the 24-year-old. Prior to his injury, Dee was a mess at the plate, with a slash line of just .229/.280/.282/.562 due to his low walk rate (6.1 %), severe lack of power (.053 ISO in 330 PA), and a propensity to hit the ball weakly on the ground (58.9 GB%). Dee returned from injury and headed straight for the minors, and upon his return after rosters expanded, garnered just three plate appearances.

And yet, Don Mattingly allowed Dee to lead-off for much of his 2012 season. A.J. Ellis silently weeps.

Anyway, Dee was just as abominable in the field, costing the Dodgers ~10.5 runs with his glove. His range aside, Dee must work on his hands and accuracy, because becoming a defensive asset at short is his path to being an MLB regular. For now though, his weak bat and weak glove worked to produce a WAR right around -1.0.

The sole area where Dee did contribute was, not surprisingly, the basepaths, where he was worth around ~3.0 runs and stole 32 bases. However, he swiped bags at just an average rate (~76%), so there’s plenty of room for Dee to grow in that respect, unless he wants to be Juan Pierre and steal a lot of bags while not being a great basestealer.

Dee’s role in 2013 is not yet clear. While he could remain in the bigs as a bench player, pinch-runner, or spot-starter, it seems more likely that he would begin the season as the starting shortstop in AAA so the Dodgers can work with him on his offensive, defensive, and basestealing shortcomings.

The upside is still there, but 2012 clearly showed there was a long way to go.

As Cruz started 23 games at short — mostly after Gordon’s injury but before Ramirez’s acquisition — he’ll get a brief mention here, although his full write-up can be found in the Season Review for third base.

Despite his overall solid year, Cruz hit a mediocre .235/.267/.388/.655 while captaining the infield, though almost half of his 20 hits in his 85 plate appearances went for extra-bases (two homers and seven doubles). In the field, he was solid, clocking in at ~0.7 runs saved.

If the Dodgers start Cruz at short, he helps the club most there because his defense far surpasses Hanley’s.

I can safely say that I’m not the only one who had no idea who Luis Cruz was at the outset of the 2012 season. By the end of it, the once unknown 28-year-old journeyman had become a cult hero in Los Angeles. Heading into 2013, it appears he’ll not only hold down a roster spot, but be the Dodgers starting third baseman.

Now whether that’s something a team with a $200 million payroll should be doing, however, is another matter entirely. Others seem to be having difficultywrapping their head around it as well, probably because heading into 2012, Cruz’s major-league career consisted of 169 plate appearances spread over three seasons and 56 games. He was atrocious at the dish in that limited sample size, and had been a career minor-leaguer, save for those small cups of coffee.

Following injuries to Dee Gordon (thumb) and Juan Uribe (playing baseball like he plays life), Cruz was called up in early-July and spent time at third, short, and second. Most of that time — 51 games and 48 starts — was at the hot corner, where he shined with the glove, posting a 6.6 UZR and a +8 on the DRS scale. He was very good with the leather overall, saving ~5.5 runs in total in 2012. His play at third was especially impressive considering he had never before manned the position in the bigs.

That last sentence is an important one with Cruz, because fans are quick to make judgments when they first see a player perform in The Show, and Cruz has become a savor in the eyes of many fans. If injuries don’t derail plans and we assume that he continues to flash the leather at third in 2013, Cruz can be an adequate starter for the Dodgers based on his defensive showing in 2012 alone. However, if Cruz’s defense proves to be a mirage, then his offense probably won’t cut it because it’s a strong candidate to regress. Yes, that’s still better than Uribe, who we’ll get to momentarily, but simply being better than Emo Juan isn’t enough to be a productive major-leaguer.

The main problems are that Cruz doesn’t walk (3% in 2012), has limited power (.134 ISO), and is just an average baserunner. Combine those factors with an inflated BABIP (.320), and he’s looking at a less impressive 2013 triple-slash. Oh, and he swings at just about everything, including a ridiculous 41.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared with a league average of just under 31%. That’s not a great indicator unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero talent-wise, and Cruz is obviously not (who is?).

Even for a guy who posted a ~2.3 WAR in 2012, given the rational concerns with him repeating that performance, a starting gig in 2013 is still a godsend. If the only options are starting Cruz or Uribe, then sure, Cruz is the easy choice, but his career minor-league line in 12 seasons and 1200+ plate appearances of .261/.296/.394/.690 speaks volumes to me, and it’s a far greater indicator of what to expect going forward than 296 plate appearances this past season.

Cruz deservedly has a spot on the team, but it probably should be as a bench player, not a starter. And given where he came from prior to the Dodgers, that’s not a diss, but rather a compliment that he’s earned his keep.

Juan Uribe managed to make it through an entire season — in which he hit an unseemly .191/.258/.284/.542 with a .245 wOBA — without being cut. He spent some time on the DL, but more of it riding the pine, going weeks down the stretch without seeing the field.

Spending any significant amount of time on him is a nauseating notion, so let’s just quickly wrap this up and note that Uribe is heading into the final year of the atrocious deal Ned Colletti handed out to him prior to the 2011 campaign. Yes, he still swings at everything, is averse to drawing a walk, and will probably still find work somewhere because he can handle himself in the field, saving ~3.7 runs in 2012.

Adam Kennedy also found himself at third last season, starting 25 games and appearing in 39. He’s pretty much the opposite of Uribe, as he’s bad with the leather (about a run in debt to the Dodgers overall) but mediocre with the lumber (.262/.345/.357/.702 with a .310 wOBA overall). And by mediocre, I mean bad, but better than anyone actually expected him to be.

One last player of note to find himself at third last season was Jerry Hairston Jr., who started 23 games and appeared in 32 at third.

He swung the bat well when playing there, to the tune of a .315/.344/.435/.779 line in just under 100 plate appearances. Perhaps most impressively though, he got off to a ridiculously hot start there defensively, which helped him rate well with the glove (2.6 UZR and a DRS of +2) even though he did struggle later in 2012.

Signed to a back-loaded two-year deal in the off-season, Mark Ellis only played in 110 games after nearly losing a leg on the play you see above, posting a ~2.7 WAR in the process. 35 now and turning 36 years of age next summer, Ellis can’t afford to lose anything physically beyond what Father Time was already taking away from him, particularly when so much of his value is derived from his glove. At the end of the day, his health might be the biggest factor in his productivity.

After posting just a .248/.288/.346/.634 line with a putrid .282 wOBA in 2011 (Ellis did finish strong though after moving to the friendly air of Coors Field), he swung the bat better in 2012, posting a .258/.333/.364/.697 slash line with a .312 wOBA. That’s still not very good offensively, but as a second baseman, Ellis isn’t paid to hit like Matt Kemp. As long as he can field the position to the degree he did in 2012 (~6.9 runs saved) and has throughout his career, he can be a solid complementary regular. Although who knows, if Don Mattingly didn’t ask him and every other number-two hitter for the Dodgers to bunt so much, maybe Ellis would have recorded a few more base-knocks.

#StopBunting, Donnie Baseball.

Anyways, slated to make $5.25 million this upcoming campaign, with a club option worth almost $6 million clams for 2014, Ellis will need to stave off old age for at least another year. Speaking of the effects of old age, the major leg injury he suffered could plausibly have had an effect on his performance at the plate (.273/.373/.364/.737 pre-injury, .251/.314/.364/.678 post-injury), though his second-half slide could also be attributed to the fact that Ellis isn’t and hasn’t ever been a great hitter.

On the bright side, Ellis did walk twice as much in ’12 as he did in ’11 (8.6/4.2 BB%), which would come in handy as the number two-hitter in front of The Bison, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Hanley Ramirez. Well, it would if, you know, Donnie didn’t take the bat out of his hands constantly to pointlessly give up an out.

Subbing in for an injured Ellis, Jerry Hairston Jr. put up a .231/.301/.330/.631 slash line in 30 games at the position before succumbing to a season-ending hip injury which required surgery. Overall, Hairston hit .273/.342/.387/.729 with a .320 wOBA.

The Swiss Army knife of players signed a back-loaded two-year deal of his own, and will make $3.75 million in 2013 while serving as a super-sub and right-handed bat with a bit of pop off the bench.

The Dodgers had a total of eight guys suit up at second, none of whom beyond Ellis and Hairston really necessitate any mention. However, it’s worth noting that Ivan De Jesus is no longer with the team, and yes, Adam Kennedy really did spend the whole season with the Dodgers, so all that wasn’t a nightmare (well, it was a nightmare, but a real one). I’ll say this for Kennedy: he walked a surprising and inordinate amount of times, at least based on his career numbers (11.4% in 2012, 6.6% for his career).

When the Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez from the Boston Red Sox, I saw a plethora of Dodger fans begin to assert wild and crazy things. Not only were the Dodgers guaranteed of making the playoffs, but they were a lock to make the World Series on the back of a hero who was absolutely the right acquisition because of the dubious logic of him fitting in with the community and what not.

With all of the variables in baseball, I found these claims to be ridiculous. Putting aside the unforeseen injuries to Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, and Kenley Jansen, Gonzalez’s acquisition did not portend to an immediate success because of the small sample size of the remaining season and because it wasn’t really the same A-Gon of pre-2012.

No, this A-Gon was potentially still dealing with ramifications from shoulder and back injuries, had seen his power sapped, and had seemingly forgotten how to draw a walk (10.6% career, 10.3% in 2011, 6.1% in 2012). While an obvious upgrade over James Loney‘s corpse, success was no sure thing, as he was in the midst of his worst professional season since becoming a full-time starter. What would end up disappointing people in 2012 was two-fold: far too high expectations and a stretch in which Gonzalez was atrocious at the plate, to the tune of a .235/.292/.346/.638 line over a 20-game span.

Following an MVP-caliber 2011 in which he hit .338/.410/.548/.958 with a .407 wOBA, .210 ISO, 154 wRC+, and 75 extra-base hits, A-Gon’s slash line fell to .299/.344/.463/.807 with a .346 wOBA, .164 ISO, 115 wRC+, and 66 extra-base hits. Again, those numbers still trump anything his predecessor in Blue could dream of, and his numbers after the trade still stand above Loney’s, but will they be enough in the long-run for such a high-priced player? It’s yet to be seen.

On the positive side, Gonzalez was still a very productive player, no doubt, saving ~15.5 runs with his excellent glove and posting a WAR of ~3.4. Also, Adrian did finish strong, mashing to the tune of a .330/.365/.495/.860 line. As he won’t even turn 31 until May, I expect Gonzalez to rebound and be better with the lumber, ending up closer to a ~4 WAR player, at least for a season or two.

Prior to his trade to Red Sox Nation, Loney was having yet another putrid season, hitting .254/.302/.344/.646 with a .278 wOBA and .090 ISO. Even his most ardent fans were less boisterous about how the #RBIMachine would bust out at any moment, and though the financial ramifications of the Boston deal worry me, and the deal as a whole doesn’t thrill me, I was very pleased to see the Sox take him away.

Loney leaves Los Angeles as a failed prospect who could never hit enough to warrant his job at a premium offensive position. The only real role in baseball that he has left is as a late-inning defensive replacement, as he saved ~3.3 runs in 2012 prior to his move east.

Rivera was the right-handed half of the #Fail platoon Don Mattingly trotted out at first prior to Gonzalez’s arrival. He started 39 games and appeared in 54 at first, hitting just .226/.268/.404/.672 while being a liability on the basepaths (-1.4 BsR) and with a first baseman’s glove (-17.6 UZR/150 in over 300 innings). He managed to land in that rarefied air of posting a negative fWAR, clocking in at -0.8 for the year.

How he could possibly receive anything other than a minor-league invitation to Spring Training in 2013 from any team is beyond me, but if anyone can make that theoretical minor-league deal into a guaranteed major-league one, it would be Uncle Ned.

After toiling in the minors for parts of nine seasons with just a couple cups of coffee to show for it, all the while watching the Dodgers treat the catcher position like it was wholly unimportant (trading Carlos Santana, allowing Joe Torre to run Russell Martin into the ground, and Rod Barajas not only being on the team but starting games as the primary backstop), A.J. Ellis finally got his shot in 2012 to be the man behind the dish.

Given the opportunity, he certainly did not disappoint, posting a 4.1 fWAR and putting forth the most productive season of any Dodger catcher since Martin’s 5.2 fWAR campaign back in 2008. In 133 games and just over 500 plate appearances, A.J. hit .270/.373/.414/.787 with a .341 wOBA. He walked in 13% of his plate appearances while whiffing just over 21% of the time, and he impressively clubbed 13 homers after never hitting more than eight in any professional season, including stops in minor-league launching pads like Albuquerque.

Two important notes though: first, Ellis did have a 12.5 % HR/FB mark, and I expect some regression in that area in 2013, probably between that mark and his 2011 mark of 8.3%. Second, A.J. did backslide with the bat in the second half (.285/.404/.425/.830 pre-break & .252/.336/.401/.737 post-break), which is not all that surprising for a guy in his first full season in the MLB who was never been known as a great hitter.

—–

Generally speaking, defense is difficult to quantify when looking at advanced statistics, and it’s most difficult to quantify for catchers. FanGraphs had Ellis as a slight positive behind the dish, and if you go the route of more traditional numbers, A.J. caught 32.7% of would-be baserunners and allowed eleven passed balls. He struck me as a guy who calls a good game and has a good rapport with the staff, but it’s definitely his offensive production that makes him the best option in an organization and one of the best in the NL.

As he heads into his age-32 season — and in need of a new contract that will see him on the receiving end of a nice raise — if Ellis can improve a bit with the glove, continue to draw walks and get on-base, and keep the power anywhere within range of where it was in 2012, he will once again be a boon for the club.

I’m still not sure if he just wasn’t ever as good as we thought or that the broken leg truly derailed his career, but he certainly struggled after the injury. While the .311/.387/.432/.819 is nice, the league average OPS was .806, so it wasn’t anything special.

That said, it was just nice to see him get some semblance of plate discipline back, as what used to be a clear strength completely evaporated after his injury. He got back to walking a bit at a 9.9% clip in 2011 to go along with a 15.7% strikeout rate. By comparison, prior to his injury, he posted a 13.6% walk rate and a 14.5% strikeout rate in what was arguably a more difficult environment in AA.

His .188/.235/.188/.423 line with a 5.7 BB% and a 31.4 K% in a short trial in the majors certainly won’t help, but it’s not damning. For me, the bigger concern is whether he continues to make progress on his way back from the injury or if this is as good as we’re going to get. As of now, he could be a useful utility player down the road.

After his defensive showing last year, there were ruminations among Dodger fans that he could be a starter, but his struggles with the bat seemed to quiet that train of thought (.203/.283/.301/.583). However, he does have positional flexibility, and has shown gap power, solid contact, and the ability to walk in the minors (.306/.403/.541/.944), so I think becoming a key utility man isn’t out of the question.

Sellers does play solid defense at three infield positions, and if he can make consistent enough contact to keep his batting average closer to .250 than the Mendoza Line, I think he can have usefulness for the team for years down the road.

Federowicz hit .321/.418/.630/1.048 for Albuquerque, but his .278/.341/.413/.754 line in AA for Portland was probably more indicative of his offensive talent.

He has average contact ability, average plate discipline, and average pop in the minors, all of which project to be below average to poor in the majors. However, what keeps him relevant is his solid catch-and-throw ability and good defense behind the plate.

Since catchers don’t need to hit much to be useful, I suppose the hope is that he can become a below average hitter and thus be a useful regular with his defensive abilities. As you already likely know, I’m skeptical of defense first catchers that have to learn how to hit, because I don’t think it generally works out that way.

Yes, that’s right boys and girls, there’s one goddamn pitching prospect at AAA for the Dodgers and he had a 7.21 ERA and 5.43 FIP in 2011!

Aren’t you excited? Hell yeah, my nipples are hard.

Anyway, in all seriousness, it wasn’t that bad because the league average was a 5.11 ERA and a 4.50 FIP. That said, he posted about a league average strikeout and walk rate, so there’s nothing to get too excited about here.

His fastball is in the 91-94 range and he has a solid slider, but the thing that has held him back in the past is his command. He doesn’t have a knockout pitch either, but the Dodgers could do worse at organizational relief depth.

Van Slyke absolutely lit up AA, posting a .348/.427/.595/1.022 line while somehow striking out at the league average rate (18.7%). Granted, the batting average was primarily powered by a .405 BABIP, which is utterly unsustainable, but his secondary skills were enough to make his season a successful one regardless, including a 12.3% walk rate.

Unfortunately, there’s a reason skepticism exists, and I don’t think any of it will evaporate unless he starts hitting major league pitching. He’s not a good defender and he’s limited to first base, so he’ll have to mash, and there are legitimate questions as to whether his contact rate and plate discipline can hold up against major league pitching because of concerns about his long swing.

There’s no reason not to expect him to put up monster numbers at AAA, and he’s not getting any younger, so whether he actually even gets a shot in the majors on a full-time basis is dubious.

Silverio continued his coming out tour by posting a .304/.339/.534/.873 line in AA. His strikeout rate was actually below average, but his walk rate was almost half of the league average, which basically spells out my concerns with him.

Even before last year, I recognized that he did have tools, but he never had put it together into a productive season. However, when he did, I was admittedly still skeptical because he didn’t do a lot of things that I believe are required to be a productive regular. He’ll likely be limited to a corner outfield role, so he’ll have to be productive with the bat, and I haven’t seen a ton to indicate that he’ll be able to learn the plate discipline necessary to be a solid contributor there. Keep in mind that despite his breakout, he’s not young, so while he’s certainly on the upswing, I don’t understand the current hype about him besides the fact that he’s the rare hitting prospect in the Dodgers system.

Like with most at AAA, he should have a monster season there because of the altitude, but like with Van Slyke, the real indicator will be how he hits at the major league level, if he ever gets the chance to prove it.

Most impressive part about his season at AA? He didn’t strike out 200 times. Far from it in fact, as he actually managed to keep the swings and misses about the same as 2010. The problem? It was still 32.4% of the time, which is atrocious. Furthermore, he no longer put up the monster lines that could possibly excuse it, posting a solid but not spectacular .258/.340/.497/.837.

If only he could make contact, he would be a hell of a right field prospect, as he has all the tools for the position. Unfortunately, I cringe to think what his strikeout rate might be in the majors, and he’s already 25.

24, limited to left field or first base, and putting up a .277/.311/.470/.781 in AA does not a prospect make. While his 14.3 K% shows the ability to make contact, his 2.7 BB% shows a complete disregard for walks.

Despite some that may like him or still find him relevant, he’s made me go from skeptical to ignore worthy with his 2011.

Coming over in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals for Rafael Furcal, Castellanos put up monster numbers at AA between both systems, clocking in at .322/.388/.576/.964. He struck out at an above average rate of 22.0%, but his power justifies it.

My primary concern is with his walk rate, which checks in at a below average 7.3%, and that just backs up what you see in his aggressive approach and swing-happy tendencies. It’s hard to blame him since he does have a nice fluid stroke, but you’d like to see better out of an older prospect. I don’t think that quality plays if he’s stuck in a corner outfield position, but with his power, I think he can get by if he can play a competent second base.

Castellanos is not young, so he should be pressed into big league action when a position opens up in 2012.

Between high-A and AA, he posted a .260/.366/.424/.790 line, boasting good plate discipline, good pop, and contact woes. Given that he’s a solid defender at second base, he would seem like an ideal prospect for the position. However, his hit tool lags and it’ll likely end up costing him any major league ambitions in the end.

The bottom line is that swing path is still more suited for a power hitter, and it leads to his bat not staying in the zone for long. Maybe there’s a utility infield spot for him in the future, but that’s it.

2011 was a breakout year for Eovaldi, as he got pushed to AA and did nothing but excel there, posting a 2.62 ERA and a 3.00 FIP. That performance earned him a call to the big leagues, where he continued to prove himself by putting up a 3.63 ERA and 4.35 FIP. During the transition, his strikeout rate fell from 23.2% to 15.8% and his walk rate rose from 10.8% to 13.7%, but for a 21-year-old who had never pitched against advanced ball prior to this year, he definitely had a successful run.

There’s no doubt about his fastball, which sits regularly at 93-96 and can touch 99. However, as of right now, that’s his only major league pitch. I think he needs more time to develop his slider and change, which is why I was puzzled that the Dodgers decided to start his clock in 2011. As I’ve been saying for a while now, his slider is not so much a slider but a cutter that doesn’t cut half the time. As such, he doesn’t even have a secondary pitch right now, much less a tertiary one. If the Dodgers truly want him to be a starter, he needs more time in the minor leagues.

Eovaldi should either be a bullpen contributor right away in 2012 (if that’s what his future is going to be) or be put at AA/AAA to develop further as a starter.

It’s easy to forget, but Withrow is still just a 22-year-old, and he’s already in AA, so he’s hardly behind schedule despite being on prospect lists for years now. In 2011 he posted a solid year with a 4.20 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 23.5 K%. However, as usual, his control was an issue, as he walked batters 13.6% of the time.

On the plus side, he got his fastball back to 92-95 and touching 98 after it had dipped severely at the end of 2010. On the minus side, his control hasn’t gotten significantly better, and that was always the main problem since he was drafted. His curve and change are both serviceable pitches as far as stuff is concerned, but if neither can be located, then it’s an exercise in futility.

Honestly though? I’ve never seen a gigantic issue in his mechanics that he absolutely needs to fix. His issues seem to stem primarily from a complete lack of consistency and repeatability, causing him errors with just about everything. It’s not hopeless, he just needs to put work into body control and balance over pure power stuff.

Withrow should repeat AA in 2012, and like so many other pitching prospects, he’s just a bit of command away from being a potentially useful starter, but it remains to be seen if he can make the adjustments necessary. If he can’t, perhaps he would be better off focusing in short spurts from the bullpen.

St. Clair had a solid season at AA, posting a 3.10 ERA and a 2.45 FIP. Perhaps more importantly, he dominated lefties, posting a 1.97 FIP against them compared to a 2.79 FIP against righties. If nothing else, that bodes well for a future as a matchup lefty in the majors.

His stuff is still not back to what it was in his Rice days, but he has made his way back into the 90s with a bit of sink and has a good curve. His control is good and he locates his pitches well, the latter of which is probably more important. His motion has built in deception against lefties, and both his demeanor and delivery are aggressive.

I would like to see what he can do at the major league level at some point in 2012, as the Dodgers are already looking for another lefty out of the pen. To start though, my best guess is that he’ll be at AAA.

While it’s true that the bullpen move has turned him from a non-prospect into somebody worth monitoring, I probably wouldn’t get overexcited yet. At AA he posted a 3.93 ERA and 3.94 FIP, and he was about league average at striking out and walking batters.

At 24, that’s nothing to get excited about, but his stuff has taken an uptick and that gives some hope. He can sit 93-95 as a reliever, touching as high as 97, and has a passable curve. His control is okay, but his command still needs work, as he doesn’t hit his spots often enough for my liking.

Wall will start 2012 in the minors, but if he continues to thrive, he could get a call to the majors. Unfortunately for him, the Dodgers have nothing but power bullpen arms at this point in time, so he could get lost in the shuffle.

After being dicked around by the Dodgers with the whole “let’s make him a starter” charade, Lindblom got to return to his rightful role in the bullpen and excelled, posting a 2.11 ERA and a 2.63 FIP. More importantly, his peripherals were excellent, as he struck out 32.3% of batters while walking a below league average 8.4%. Upon being called up to the majors, he continued to thrive, putting up a 2.73 ERA and an even better 2.35 FIP. His peripherals didn’t drop significantly either, as he struck out 24.1% of batters and walked 8.6%.

Now that he’s back in the bullpen, he has been able to scrap his average curve and mediocre change in favor of a 84-86 slider with two plane break that should be a decent strikeout pitch in the majors. Additionally, the short bursts allow him to ramp up his fastball velocity to 91-94 with better arm-side tail. He’s aggressive and I’ve always liked his demeanor better in the pen.

Why would a cost controlled reliever who put up a 2.35 FIP in the majors last year be relegated back to AAA in favor of signing a veteran with inferior numbers to a more expensive contract? Who knows, but that seems to be what will happen in 2012 barring injury. Lindblom should be one of the first to be called up to the Dodgers though.