Some races will be key to dekookifying Senate

We are just six days now from that oh-so-happy day, Election Day. Or as I call it, Dekook the Capitol Day.

While most of Arizona is focused on a decent man named Flake vs. a decent man named Carmona, I only have eyes for the state Senate.

Therein lies the key to kookdom in Arizona.

One thing is clear. Republicans will lose their supermajorities at the state Capitol, which is a good thing unless you particularly enjoy a Legislature focused on unlimited weaponry, U.N. conspiracy theories and, of course, the uterus.

The question is: Will Republicans lose their hold on the Senate?

Democrats -- currently an endangered species in the upper chamber -- say yes. They believe they can pick up six seats to force a 15-15 split in the Senate, with a little help from redistricting and big money they are pouring into several key races.

"If you've got a chance to split it, that's the way you truly moderate everything, because it becomes just a sieve where only the negotiated stuff falls out the bottom," former House Minority Leader John Loredo told me.

Republicans say the Dems are dreaming. They predict an 18-12 or 17-13 split, diminished numbers that should boost the power of the saner ranks within the Senate Republican caucus.

"Lower numbers give you centrist-type Republicans that have more clout," said former Republican Rep. Chris Herstam.

Me? I'm guessing Republicans will hang on to the Senate. But will they be the Republicans who will stomp out kookery at the Capitol?

If you're following along, these are the five districts to watch on Tuesday:

Northern Arizona, where Democratic Rep. Tom Chabin and Republican Rep. Chester Crandell are vying for the open seat. Both men figured prominently into Operation Dekookification with Chabin making my list of keepers while Crandell rated kook status, largely for his goofy Prop. 120. The proposal declares state sovereignty over all national parks, forests, monuments and wilderness areas, but mostly it just ensures another prolonged fight with the feds. Big money is pouring into this race, with Democratic groups sinking $200,000 into an independent campaign supporting Chabin and an additional $51,000 into opposing Crandell. Republicans, meanwhile, have put nearly $112,000 into opposing Chabin and $33,000 into supporting Crandell. On paper, Crandell should win. But Democrats have a strong centrist ticket, and this is a centrist district. Advantage: Chabin.

Tucson, where Republican Sen. Frank Antenori is hoping to battle former Democratic Rep. David Bradley. Antenori didn't rate kook status, but he came close. Most interesting here is the absence of Republican money coming in to support Antenori. This is a highly competitive district, yet the Republican Victory Fund, largely viewed as Senate President Steve Pierce's PAC, is MIA. Meanwhile, Democratic groups have pumped nearly $194,000 into opposing Antenori and boosting Bradley. Advantage: Bradley.

Pinal County, where Republican newcomer Joe Ortiz and former Democratic Rep. Barbara McGuire are fighting for an open seat in what is perhaps the state's most competitive district. Ortiz, like Antenori and Crandell, is affiliated with Constantin Querard, the campaign strategist who specializes in kooks. Again, Democrats have put big money into this race: $181,000. Republicans, meanwhile, have taken a pass. Advantage: McGuire.

Tempe/west Mesa, where Sen. Jerry Lewis, R-keeper, is facing Democratic Rep. Ed Ableser and Libertarian Damian Trabel. Conventional wisdom gives the race to Ableser, given a sizable Democratic registration edge. But independents outnumber both Republicans and Democrats. Democrats see a pickup here and have sunk $88,000 into independent campaigns, while Republicans have tossed in nearly $95,000. Advantage: Toss-up. OK, that's wimpy; I say Lewis, by a hair. Independents will decide this one, and I doubt they've forgotten that Lewis was the Russell Pearce slayer or that Ableser was the largely absentee legislator, having racked up the worst attendance record in the House this year.

Ahwatukee Foothills/Chandler, where Republican Sen. John McComish, another of the keepers, is squaring off against Democratic challenger Janie Hydrick. Democrats see this hotly contested race as the tipping point, which explains the jaw-dropping amount of money pouring into independent campaigns -- more than $465,000 as of Monday, with more, undoubtedly, to come. Democratic groups have sunk an unprecedented $275,000 into defeating McComish, with an additional $29,000 to boost Hydrick. Meanwhile, Republican groups have thus far spent $113,000 to defeat Hydrick and $48,582 to boost McComish. This is one of the most competitive districts in the state, a squeaker, a gut-twister, a nail-biter. Advantage: