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Economists: Only New Leadership Can Revive Zimbabwe's Collapsed
Economy

VOA

By Peta
Thornycroft14 March
2008

Zimbabwe's economy has been in crisis for nearly 10
years, but as election day approaches, its collapse is gathering pace, and no
one is sure where it is heading. Peta Thornycroft reports for VOA that
economists, industrialists and political analysts say the economy can only
recover if there is new political leadership.

An unidentified opposition
supporter holds a red card with the words 'Mugabe must Go Now,' during a rally
in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, 8 Mar 2008

Zimbabwe used to be a breadbasket of Africa and was the second
most industrialized nation on the continent. Now it depends on food aid and most
of its industries have closed or are working only one or two days a week, a
decline many analysts attribute to the failed leadership of President Robert
Mugabe and his chaotic land reform program.

Mr. Mugabe blames Western nations, particularly
Britain and the United States, for his country's economic woes.

Economist John Robertson says the economy is so
tattered, it will require new political leadership of a special caliber to
launch a recovery process.

"They will have to
do some amazingly difficult things, because most of ZANU-PF policies over the
last decade or more have been policies designed to avoid pain, avoid the
difficulties they should have accepted front on," he said. "A new leader would
have to fix those very quickly and [that] would be very much more painful than a
politician trying to win popular support."

Robertson is alluding to the coming election in which
two candidates are challenging Mr. Mugabe to become the new president of
Zimbabwe.

Simba Makoni, who was finance minister during the start of
the land reform program, announced his candidacy just last month. He had to quit
his job, or was forced to, when he advised his then boss, Robert Mugabe, to
devalue the Zimbabwe dollar in 2002.

The other
candidate is Morgan Tsvangirai, who started out as a unionist and led the
recovery of the trade union movement in Zimbabwe before he became the founding
present of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in
2000.

Both men devote a lot of campaign time telling people
how the economy needs to be reformed. Economist Robertson says if either man
wins the election he will be faced with a daunting task to inject life back into
the economy.

At present it takes about 30 million Zimbabwe dollars
to buy $1 U.S. on the black market, which is the only way to acquire foreign
currency these days. Robertson says Zimbabwe will not recover without
international assistance, in particular to stabilize the Zimbabwe dollar, which
loses value every day.

"We need to be treated as a disaster zone in
desperate need of assistance much as if we had suffered an earthquake or a
flood," he explained. "If the country tried to recover with its own resources,
it would take far, far too long, so the assistance we would need would be mainly
to recapitalize the country to give people the resources needed to hit the
ground running in every industry, especially in agriculture."

Robertson suggests that a new leader will have to
respond to market forces and drastically cut the size of the civil service. He
also notes that companies or individuals in debt at the time of a transition to
a new political dispensation would struggle to survive a stable Zimbabwe dollar
and real interest rates.

Zimbabwean President Robert
Mugabe chants the party's slogan at a rally in Mubayira, about 120 km south of
Harare, Zimbabwe, 13 Mar 2008

A few people have made fortunes out of Zimbabwe's political and economic
chaos. With the plummeting value of the currency, the few who have cash invest
it in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, the only viable option to preserve or grow
its value. The economically perverse consequence of this is that in 2007 the
ZSE was the best performing stock market in the world.

Stock exchange chief executive Emmanuel Munyukwi
laments the ever deepening crisis and says most companies still operating are
only trying to survive until there is a new political dispensation.

"These companies are probably operating at less than
20 percent capacity, they have got assets which are real, the assets are there,
so should circumstances change here the upside potential is huge," he
noted.

Munyukwi says the banks, for example, no longer
operate as they did when Zimbabwe's economy was sound. He says important
traditional roles of private banks such as lending to investors and supporting
agriculture have been taken over by the central bank. He says commercial banks
are now more like post office banks, dealing only with individuals'
accounts.

Munyukwi says he is an optimist and believes that
there could be a recovery reasonably fast if there is a new political
leadership.

"When you look what's happening on the ground, most
of our problems are political," he said. "Once the political situation is
resolved, it cascades down. The executives running the companies in Zimbabwe are
going through a very difficult time, even producing in some instances good
results under very, very trying circumstances. Now if the playing field is
level - this is the potential I am talking about - people will start making
money."

Both Makoni and Tsvngirai have said if they won the
presidential election they would restore the ailing banking sector and return
the central bank to its traditional role.

However, President Mugabe is campaigning hard. He has
apologized to people for their suffering mainly blaming the west for their
plight, but saying that ZANU-PF has also made mistakes. He is determined to
serve at least another five years, and many Zimbabweans wonder what will happen
to the economy if he retains power.

Political analyst Brian Raftopoulos says if he does
the West will not recognize the outcome of the election because, he says,
already there are strong indications that the polls will be neither free nor
fair. Raftopoulos predicts the economy will shrink further and suffering will
escalate.

"Well if Mugabe wins it is simple, conditions will
continue to deteriorate," he said. "This would not be an election that is
widely recognized, there will be no recovery, the Mugabe regime will be further
isolated. The economy will continue to deteriorate, with Mugabe and his regime
having no policy to bring Zimbabwe out of the current crisis, and therefore,
all-round the conditions will get worse."

At month's end Zimbabweans will vote for the first
time in four simultaneous elections - for the president, legislators, senators
and, for local government representatives. Many are hoping that the election
will indeed herald a new economic beginning in their
country.

Winds of change gather pace as President Robert
Mugabe's hungry masses dare to voice their anger

The TimesMarch 15, 2008

Open defiance led by
opposition candidate Simba Makoni holds the promise of an end to years of
suffering for Zimbabwe's rural poor

Jan Raath in MuchakataThe women
sat in the rural way; on the ground, with their legs stretched out straight
in front of them, under an enormous old tree. The men sat in a group apart
from them, all listening to Zimbabwe's newest opposition leader, Simba
Makoni.

They had been ordered by the chief of the area not to attend, but
they came anyway. They did not move when two policemen approached to watch
the meeting, nor were they distracted by a campaign meeting, 200 metres
away, of the ruling Zanu (PF) party, even with its large heap of
food-for-votes grain bags ready for distribution to the faithful.

Mr
Makoni, President Mugabe's former Finance Minister, left the party a month
ago to challenge him for the presidency in the March 29 elections. When he
made a joke of Mr Mugabe's totem, he got loud, derisive laughs. They clapped
and cheered when he scorned the situation where a box of matches now costs
Z$2 million.

Their shouts became angry ones when he told them that the
members of Mr Mugabe's politburo had sent their own children to schools in
Australia and Malaysia "after they have destroyed our education system". One
woman cried out: "I want to vote now!"

This is in the heart of Zanu
(PF) territory, in the rough and inhospitable province of Masvingo in the
south of the country, an area that Zanu (PF) proudly claims is a "one-party
province". In the last presidential election a meeting like this would have
brought the villagers a lesson from the party youth, of bloodied heads and
houses razed to the ground."This could never have happened here, not even
two months ago," said a retired civil servant, who gave his name as Albert.
"Anything can happen in this election now. We cannot continue
suffering."

The next two meetings I followed on Mr Makoni's whistle-stop
tour of the area proceeded without interruption. People cheered him, raised
their clasped hands in his salute and, in full public view, put on free
T-shirts bearing his sunny visage. "We don't want Mugabe any more," said a
thin, young mother called Esnat. "We are hungry. We have nothing. We want
change."

Wherever I went, people spoke the forbidden word, "change". In
the blink of an eye, something has happened to Zimbabwe's rural people,
after nearly 30 years under Mr Mugabe's absolute rule, where the ruling
party card is the key to receiving famine relief when you are starving,
while dissent has meant death for hundreds.

The rural areas have, by
a policy of brutal subjection and deliberate impoverishment, been made a
reliable reservoir of votes for Zanu (PF) that Mr Mugabe, 84, has used to
stay in power since he was first challenged in 2000.

But suddenly the
web of fear and silence appears to be dissolving. Last week in the Gutu
area, another Mugabe fortress about 30 miles (50km) north of here, one of
the factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) was able
not just to hold rallies and draw thousands of villagers, but to see village
headmen - the bailiffs of Zanu (PF)'s rural rule - denouncing Mr Mugabe and
declaring allegiance to the MDC. "We gave Mugabe a chance and they failed,"
said a headman, Tapurai Gudo. "Now they are asking for our support. This is
the time to show that rural people are not idiots."

In Mhondoro, about 40
miles south of Harare, senior officials of the party were astonished this
week to receive a rapturous welcome from thousands of villagers in what was
regarded as a virtual "no-go" area for the opposition. A national executive
member, Nelson Chamisa, said: "It was humbling. These people are hungry, but
many walked 12 miles to hear us."

Human rights agencies have already
remarked on the relative absence of the ruling party campaign of violence
and harassment that usually begins months before voting day. The aggressive
action of the police, who, a year ago, battered MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai
for daring to enter a police station to ask about arrested colleagues, has
also subsided.

At his meeting here, Mr Makoni told his audience that
police had instructions to intimidate people into voting for Mr Mugabe.
"Please, resist these pressures," he appealed to the two officers present.
They made no move to interfere with the meeting. "There is a wind of
change," said Eldred Masunungure, who directs a respected political opinion
poll from Harare. "Similar reports are confirmed from all round the country.
Something is unfolding."

Since Mr Makoni declared his challenge on
February 5, Zanu (PF) has shown signs of rupturing as hundreds of
middle-ranking members - but only a handful of senior officials - abandon
the party to back Mr Makoni. Nine months of talks mediated by the South
African President, Thabo Mbeki, between Zanu (PF) and the two factions of
the MDC, produced only marginal concessions from Mr Mugabe, but nonetheless
appear to have imposed restraint on the ruling party. Added to that is the
staggering depth of the economic crisis and the critical food
shortages.

"But it really is too early to write Mugabe's political
obituary," cautioned Mr Masunungure. "That would be wishful thinking. There
are many who think what is happening is the calm before the storm."

JOHANNESBURG -- Author
Heidi Holland's route to her interview with one of the world's most notorious
dictators was a travelogue of decay, down crumbling streets, past half-empty
stores, through neighborhoods where hawkers touted goods in an increasingly
desperate bid to survive a once-proud nation's collapse.

But when she arrived at Zimbabwe's
State House in Harare, the
capital, that December morning, a massive banner outside the office of President
Robert Mugabe made clear she would find little reflection -- or contrition -- inside.

"Mugabe is Right," declared the wall-size banner,
hung where only the president's staff and handpicked visitors such as Holland
could see it.

The interview that followed -- a 2 1/2 -hour
conversation with a man who rarely speaks to any writer outside Zimbabwe's
tightly controlled government propaganda machine -- was like the banner: odd,
boastful, unrepentant. It offered rare insight into the thinking of Mugabe as he
faces a difficult bid for reelection this month after almost three decades of
unbroken power.

The interview included tender moments, such as when
he discussed the deaths of relatives and his enduring "love" for Britain's
royal family. But Mugabe, 84, displayed little remorse for the actions many
Zimbabweans regard as his signature misdeeds, including the slaughter of
thousands of minority Ndebeles in the 1980s and, more recently, land invasions
that destroyed Zimbabwe's agriculture industry.

When Holland suggested that the nation's economy was
ailing, Mugabe angrily insisted that -- contrary to hyperinflation then racing
toward 100,000 percent and all other evidence -- it was "a hundred times better"
than that of most African nations.

"Outside South Africa, what country is like Zimbabwe?" Mugabe said. "Even now, what is lacking
now are goods on the shelves, perhaps. That's all. But the infrastructure is
there. We have our mines, you see. We have our enterprises."

After that and several similar comments, Holland
concluded that Mugabe was profoundly out of touch, surrounded by sycophantic
aides unwilling to speak truthfully about Zimbabwe's deterioration.

"He's not mad, but he lives in the world in a mad
kind of way," Holland said. "He's constructed his world as this kind of bubble."

Holland, who lives in South Africa but was raised in
what is now Zimbabwe, shared a recording of her interview for the book "Dinner
With Mugabe." Its release is scheduled for Friday.

The title comes from an encounter between Holland and
Mugabe in 1975, when he was a guerrilla leader recently released after 11 years
in prison. Holland, who is white and was then a magazine editor, was sympathetic
to efforts to end white supremacist rule. A friend of hers arranged for Mugabe
to have dinner at her home in Harare before his departure for Mozambique,
where he took control of the insurgency that five years later forced the white
supremacist rulers of what was then Rhodesia to give way for the creation of
black-led Zimbabwe.

As dinner ended a bit late, and it became clear that
Mugabe might miss his train, Holland frantically drove him to the station --
leaving her toddler son home alone, asleep in his crib.

Mugabe's phone call the next day, in which he thanked
Holland for the meal and inquired about the well-being of her son, endured in
her memory as she watched Zimbabwe rise to the forefront of African progress
under his rule, then plunge into ruin. More than 80 percent of Zimbabweans now
live in poverty, and an estimated one-quarter of the population of 12 million
has fled to other countries. Millions of those left behind receive international
food aid.

In the early phases of Holland's interview, Mugabe
spoke with palpable affection for his village's inspirational Irish priest, the
Rev. Jerome O'Hea, and his own older brother, Michael, who died from a
mysterious poisoning at age 15.

Mugabe also reminisced about the simple pleasures of
his early life, such as reading voraciously and swimming with O'Hea and other
Catholic boys in a river near their village.

He described the land invasions of white-owned
commercial farms in 2000 not as criminal acts but as political protests against
Britain, the former colonial ruler of Zimbabwe. He said Britain had failed to
pay its fair share to redistribute land originally taken by its settlers. War
veterans instigated the invasions, but Mugabe supported them even as many became
violent.

"They criticized us for having allowed this form of
occupation to become legal," Mugabe said of the British. "In fact, we didn't
regard it as legal, but we didn't disallow it because we were taking action
against the British government, who had torn up what was a legal agreement. . .
. They had reneged on it, so why look at just our own act?"

Mugabe also accepted little responsibility for his
army's killing of Ndebele civilians -- estimates run up to 30,000 -- for
supposedly fomenting rebellion against his rule.

"You had a party with a guerrilla force that wanted
to reverse democracy in this country," Mugabe said. "And action was taken. And,
yes, there might have been excesses, on both sides. . . . But we'd have to start
with the excesses of Ian Smith -- and the colonialists, the British, who were
still in charge, because lots of people disappeared, lots of people died." Smith
was Rhodesia's longtime prime minister.

Holland said she was careful not to challenge Mugabe
forcefully out of fear that he would end the interview immediately. And
throughout, Mugabe maintained a tone of polite, persistent reasonableness as he
made the case for his leadership of Zimbabwe.

As Holland scribbled notes and repeatedly flipped the
tape on her recorder, Mugabe's own video camera captured the entire interview,
she said.

The only truly contentious moment came near the end,
as Holland suggested that Mugabe might be wrong in his assertions about the
supposed health of Zimbabwe's economy. In her book, she wrote, "His eyes flashed
and his voice rose" as he predicted that a dramatic recovery was imminent.

"We don't even have to go two years," Mugabe said.
"Look at what we will do next year, and you'll be surprised."

Sekai Holland arrested

14th March 2008 - MDC
Pressroom

HARARE---SEKAI Holland, an MDC national executive member and
aspiring Senator for Chizhanje constituency, was today arrested and detained
for more than five hours at Harare Central Police Station for what the
police said was in connection with the aborted prayer meeting in Highfield
on 11 March 2007.

Holland, who is in her late 60s, was savagely
beaten up and hospitalized together with other political and civic leaders
last year. She only came back to Zimbabwe last month from Australia where
she was receiving treatment for a broken leg she sustained when the police
pounced on President Morgan |Tsvangirai and other civicand political leaders
at Machipisa police station following a court sanctioned rally which the
police violently crushed. Holland would have been amputated if she had not
sought specialist treatment.

On Wednesday, Holland made an emotional
address at a public meeting to commemorate the state brutality of 11 March
in which she narrated her horrific ordeal at the hands of the
police.

Today, the police accused Holland of supplying them with the
wrong address on 11 March 2007. The police also asked her the whereabouts of
Grace Kwinje, another MDC national executive member who was also brutally
assaulted together with other party leaders last year. Kwinje is now in
South Africa. The police released Holland after harassing her for more than
five hours.

The arrest of Holland shows that once again, the police have
become complicit with the regime in intimidating members of the MDC ahead of
the watershed polls on 29 March 2008.

We hope that the observers to
the watershed polls, who only came into the country last week with less than
two weeks to go before the election, are seeing for themselves the true
nature of this regime. Holland has not committed any crime and the latest
move is meant to instill fear in the people.

The people of Zimbabwe
will not be intimated. They want a new Zimbabwe and a new beginning. The MDC
represents the change we can trust.

Critics Accuse Zimbabwe's Mugabe Of Turning State To Campaign
Use

Political analysts watching the approach to
high-stakes elections in Zimbabwe March 29, President Robert Mugabe has
turned the machinery of state to his advantage.

Critics of Mugabe,
84, say he has recruited the army, the police, state television and radio,
and even the nominally nonpartisan Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to bolster
his position against opposition presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai and
former finance minister Simba Makoni, who launched an upstart campaign in
February.

Preliminary results of March polling by Mass Public Opinion
Institute of Zimbabwe that were leaked to the weekly Independent newspaper
showed Tsvangirai taking a lead with 28% percent of voter intentions
compared with 20% for Mr. Mugabe and 9% for Makoni. Final results of a
February poll by the MPOI had Mr. Mugabe with 30% of voter intentions,
Tsvangirai with 28% and Makoni with 12%, the MPOI said.

Yet
independent observers say electoral logistics combined with the impact of
state media and the weight of Zimbabwe's state security apparatus favor Mr.
Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party. The Zimbabwe Election Support Network
estimates that due to a lopsided allocation of polling stations, a voter in
Harare province will need to be processed in 22 seconds and in some cases as
little as 9 seconds on election day.

For perspective at this point two
weeks before the March 29 elections, reporter Carole Gombakomba of VOA's
Studio 7 for Zimbabwe turned to Temba Shonhiwa, a political commentator
based at Witwatersrand University, South Africa, who dismisses fears by
Harare that Zimbabweans might react violently to an apparently rigged
election.

Political analyst and University of Zimbabwe Professor John
Makumbe said that while there is less violence this year than in previous
election seasons, arrests of opposition candidates and supporters and other
irregularities, combined with the Makoni factor, could have an unpredictable
impact on the outcome of the elections.

Zimbabwe ruling party "hijacks" state media, says
press watchdog

Harare - Zimbabwe's
ruling party has 'hijacked' the public media ahead of the March 29 polls, a
local press watchdog said Friday.

In a strongly-worded statement the
Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe (MMPZ) said the public media was 'grossly
biased' in favour of President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party.

'The
public media is engaged in a propaganda war, which romanticises and promotes
the ruling party and denigrates its rivals,' MMPZ said in a
statement.

The Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC) allowed
stories on the ruling party and its activities to hog the limelight in its
main news bulletins in February, charged the watchdog.

In one glaring
example, normal TV and radio programmes were suspended to allow for live
four-hour coverage of Mugabe's campaign launch, it said.

But no such
coverage was given to the launch of the campaigns by the president's
opponents, Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and
ex-finance minister Simba Makoni.

'The national public broadcaster now
behaves as if it is ZANU PF's own private radio and television station in
flagrant violation of electoral and broadcasting laws,' said the
MMPZ.

The state broadcaster has a monopoly of the airwaves here, with
four radio stations and one television channel. Zimbabwe's only two dailies,
the Herald and the Bulawayo-based Chronicle, are also state-
controlled.

Radio listeners and TV viewers noted a big difference last
weekend when opposition parties suddenly started receiving more coverage.
The change coincided with the arrival of dozens of election observers from
the regional SADC grouping.

For the first time in 28 year of
uninterrupted rule, Mugabe is fighting for his political survival against
his two rivals, Tsvangirai and Makoni, whom he labels as 'puppets' of the
West.

Police chief says "puppets" will not rule Zimbabwe

Reuters

Fri 14 Mar
2008, 17:29 GMT

HARARE, March 14 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's police chief on
Friday threw his support behind President Robert Mugabe in elections this
month, declaring that western-supported "puppets" would not be allowed to
rule.

Joining other defence chiefs in backing the 84-year-old Mugabe for
re-election, Police commissioner-general Augustine Chihuri said: "We will
not allow puppets to take charge. This time we are wiser and we are
determined and this must serve as a warning to puppets."

His words,
reported by state media, echoed those of Mugabe who says the main opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and, lately, former ally and expelled
ZANU-PF politburo member Simba Makoni are stooges of Britain, the former
colonial power.

The southern African country will hold presidential,
parliamentary and council elections on March 29 amid economic and political
turmoil that analysts say has weakened Mugabe's grip on
power.

Mugabe, who has led the country since independence from Britain in
1980 and who faces Makoni and long time opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
in the presidential vote, is digging in, promising a landslide win to
silence his critics.

Chihuri blamed Zimbabwe's problems on sanctions
by Western governments and not Mugabe's policies.

"It is unfortunate
when people are saying it's not the illegal sanctions causing all these
problems, but misrule," he said. "The illegal sanctions, which Britain
imposed on Zimbabwe, were the major cause of the problems troubling the
country."

RECORD INFLATION

Last month the head of the prisons
service, retired major general Paradzayi Zimondi ordered prison officers to
vote for Mugabe, saying he would not salute Tsvangirai and
Makoni.

Analysts say an economic crisis marked by the highest inflation
rate in the world, above 100,000 percent, surging unemployment and shortages
of food, fuel and electricity presents the biggest challenge to Mugabe's
rule.

Mugabe denies charges of plunging the once promising economy into
turmoil, and routinely denounces the West for imposing sanctions to punish
his government for seizing white-owned farms for blacks.

Meanwhile, a
top government official in neighbouring Mozambique said he expected a free
and fair election in Zimbabwe, and urged other countries not to interfere
with the process.

Critics say Mugabe has rigged elections since
2000 to cling to power -- charges he denies.

Banze dismissed
concerns that the vote was unlikely to be free and fair, saying Zimbabwe's
sovereignty should be respected and that no-one should judge Zimbabweans
when they go to the polls.

"On the base of sovereignty, no country is
allowed to interfere in the process," he said. (For full Reuters Africa
coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: http://africa.reuters.com/) (Reporting by
MacDonald Dzirutwe and Charles Mangwiro in Maputo; Editing by Richard
Balmforth)

Prices More Than Double Overnight

Zimbabweans woke up Friday to find that prices for most
basic goods and transport had more than doubled overnight.

Our
correspondent said drinkers were shocked to find that a quart of beer was
now selling at Z$50 million, up from Z$20 million. Cascade orange drinks
that were Z$7,5 million are now Z$25 million. Mealie meal ran out in the
shops but can be found on the black market at Z$100 million for a 10 kg
bag.

Even with the huge salary increases that civil servants and
teachers received this week, it won't be long before they are demanding
more, again. Robert Mugabe awarded them a 750% pay raise, and said they
should be happy with it.

Our Harare correspondent Simon Muchemwa said
teachers from the Zimbabwe Teachers Association accepted the new salary
structure and were back at work on Friday. The lowest paid teacher now makes
Z$2,2 billion per month.

But Muchemwa said some teachers just left work
and went back home when they discovered that prices had already doubled
before they received their first pay cheque, showing the new salaries. It is
believed that they were mostly teachers from the Progressive Teachers Union
Of Zimbabwe. We were not able to reach the PTUZ to confirm
this.

Muchemwa said bus fares into Harare city centre from the outer
suburbs went up to Z$10 million from Z$5 million. He said people are in
panic mode because they cannot afford the things they need and that this
will definitely affect the outcome of the elections this month.

SADC Observers Meet Zimbabwe State Media

Business Day
(Johannesburg)

14 March 2008Posted to the web 14 March
2008

Hopewell RadebeJohannesburg

The advance team of the
Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer mission to the
Zimbabwe election has already met the state-owned media to discuss the
problems raised by the opposition parties about their lack of access to it
and exposure to the public.

This intervention is regarded as part of the
mandate of the Angolan-led team to attend to the complaints by participants
on a variety of issues covered by the SADC principles and guidelines for
electoral processes.

The reason for meeting the media first was the
fact that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has also published
guidelines for election coverage by the media, which are required to be fair
and objective in their news reports.

However, the details of the
meeting have not been revealed.

Stakes are high for the SADC observer
team which is expected to ensure that the credibility of the SADC is not
compromised and that the elections are conducted under political and
legislative conditions that will enable them to be deemed free and
fair.

It is understood that among other tasks the team would meet the ZEC
to assess its state of readiness, including an assessment of all logistical
arrangements such as the voters' roll and the electoral material.

An
advance observer group of 10 South Africans left for Zimbabwe on March 8.
The rest of the 54-member team will be deployed next Thursday and return on
April 1.

It will be composed of 21 government officials, 15 MPs from
various political parties, 15 civil society members as well as
representatives of SA's Independent Electoral Commission.

About 200
SADC observers will be distributed in all 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. It is
understood that at least 50 members from Tanzania, SA, Malawi, Mozambique,
Zambia and Angola have already arrived to start monitoring the conditions on
the ground as political parties there continue to campaign ahead of the
March 29 elections.

Angola, as the leader of the SADC Organ on Politics,
Defence and Security, is being supported by Tanzania. Swaziland, also a
member of the SADC organ, has not been able to assume its position in the
SADC observer team. As a result, Zambia and SA have stepped in. SA is
expected to take over from Zambia the chairmanship of the SADC next year,
hence their involvement in the team.

SA's special envoy to the Great
Lakes region and former h igh c ommissioner to Zimbabwe, Kingsley Mamabolo,
is leading the South African group. Andries Nel of the African National
Congress (ANC) is leading the MPs.

The parliamentary group is expected to
be composed of nine ANC MPs, two from the Democratic Alliance, and one MP
each from the Inkatha Freedom Party, the United Democratic Movement, the
Azanian People's Organisation and the African Christian Democratic
Party.

It is understood that while the SA team will not be blocked from
addressing the media and expressing their view, they have been urged to act
within the SADC collective and not to embarrass or undermine the leadership
of Angola .

"SA has appealed to its MPs to avoid the temptation of
political point scoring and acting outside the collective as they are part
of a multinational SADC team," a source said.

In 2000, SA's national
observer team had openly differed with the pronouncement of the leader of
the team on whether or not the elections in Zimbabwe were free and fair. The
disagreements had attracted international headlines and embarrassed the
government and Parliament.

Pre-Election Survey Shows Tsvangirai in Lead

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has more support than Robert Mugabe
and Simba Makoni combined, according to a recent pre-election survey by the
Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI).

Tsvangirai was favoured 28,3
percent by respondents, compared to Mugabe's 20,3 percent and Makoni's 8,6
percent. The MPOI was set up in 1999 'to promote and strengthen democratic
governance through research.' It is run by respected political commentator
and University of Zimbabwe lecturer Eldred
Masunungure.

Masunungure said a lot of votes are still up for
grabs since a number of respondents refused to disclose their choices. A
general climate of fear cultivated by successive violent election campaigns
has meant many people are reluctant to discuss the candidates they will vote
for. About 23,5 percent of those surveyed said their vote was secret, 7,5
percent had nothing to say, 5,4 percent will not vote, 4,4 percent said they
didn't know. In addition 1 percent said they would vote for little known
presidential candidate Langton Towungana, while the remaining 1,9 percent
respondents were classed as 'other' in the report.

Masunungure says
it is unlikely any of the candidates can get an outright majority of over 51
percent in the first round of voting. This he says means a second round of
voting will be necessary to choose between the two leading candidates. He
says it will also be unlikely that any of the parties contesting will secure
a two-thirds majority in both the House of Assembly and Senate. Under
Constitutional Amendment 18, signed by both Zanu PF and the MDC, the winner
of the presidential election has to get an outright majority.

The
MPOI survey has also revealed that at least 75 percent of people polled did
not receive any voter education from the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission.
Under the SADC guidelines governing elections and adopted in 2004, voter
education is a key requirement to ensure free and fair elections. This is in
addition to equal access to the media and freedom to hold political rallies,
none of which has been respected by the ruling party. Zanu PF has also
responded to the MPOI pre-election survey by commissioning its own survey to
be conducted by academics from the University of Zimbabwe, aligned to the
party.

What Makoni's candidacy means for Zimbabwe

New Zimbabwe

By
Innocent Chofamba SitholeLast updated: 03/14/2008 23:24:26"YOU who are
with us here, I hope we can trust you," so President Robert Mugabe addressed
party cadres gathered for the launch of his presidential campaign in Harare
in February.

Such is the level of paranoia gripping the octogenarian
leader ever since the defection of former finance minister, Simba Makoni,
that he has instructed all Zanu PF candidates to campaign for him first
before they can sell their own bids to the electorate.

Mugabe has
every justification to feel paranoid, for Makoni's presidential bid as an
independent rests largely on a subterranean campaign within the structures
of the ruling party. Makoni's claims of support from Zanu PF's bigwigs were
borne out with the defection of former home affairs minister and
Matabeleland heavyweight, Dumiso Dabengwa. More strategic defections are
expected; not least that of so-called kingmaker and former defence forces
commander, Solomon Mujuru.

In simple terms, Makoni's presidential bid
can best be understood as a dogged effort to give Zanu PF supporters the
leadership plebiscite that they were constitutionally entitled to at their
party's extra-ordinary congress in December last year. Mugabe pre-emptied
that election by using the notoriously venal war veterans to railroad his
endorsement as the party's presidential candidate.

The obvious
working premise for Makoni's camp is that the popular consensus within Zanu
PF is that Mugabe must, indeed, go. Their major objective, therefore, is to
wrestle the pith of the former national liberation movement from Mugabe and
the coterie of radicals that he has surrounded himself with. It is for this
reason that Makoni and his backers continue publicly to profess their
allegiance to Zanu PF.

However, Makoni also calculates that his
cross-party appeal will sweep opposition voters from under Morgan Tsvangirai
and the MDC's feet. His endorsement by Arthur Mutambara's MDC faction goes a
long way in realising this goal - it delivers the Matabeleland
vote.

By broadening his message beyond party cleavages and promising to
form a government of all the talents in order to carry through his programme
of national reconstruction, Makoni stands a strong chance of harvesting the
mass of opposition voters who are disillusioned with the MDC's repeated
failure to convert the economic decline into decisive electoral
victory.

In particular, urban professionals and middle class voters
accuse Tsvangirai of failing to demonstrate governance capacity by way of
comprehensive and consistent policy output in response to the multi-layered
national crisis. However, the former trade unionist remains popular with
large sections of the working class and unemployed voters in urban townships
where his rallies continue to draw large crowds.

It is to these
voters that Makoni must explain the nature of his allegiance to Zanu PF if
he is to make headway with them. Would he make a triumphal return to Zanu PF
should he win the presidency, for instance? Speculation on Makoni's Zanu PF
links is rife among Zimbabweans both at home and abroad, and rightly
so.

Zanu PF has captured and made the state an extension of itself. It
has overthrown legal-rational authority and replaced it with a jingoism that
allows its super-patriots to lord it over the rest of the citizenry. For
these reasons, Zanu PF has become a political creature whose demise many
Zimbabweans would love to see.

Makoni must, therefore, explain
clearly what it is about Zanu PF that he remains proud to be associated
with, and whether or not he has ambitions to lead a reformed version of it.
Dispelling the scepticism of urban voters is crucial for Makoni to win over
the anti-Zanu PF vote and gain the edge over Tsvangirai.

Analysts in
Zimbabwe do not expect an outright victory by any one of the candidates and
predict a run-off poll to decide the winner. It is widely regarded as a
foregone conclusion that Mugabe will be a participant in any run-off (that
is assuming he fails to rig the whole thing in the first instance). Makoni's
novelty is likely to be the decisive factor in a run-off poll, whoever he
faces.

In the final analysis, Makoni has massive goodwill going for him.
He has generally enjoyed a good press throughout his career and is respected
as a man of integrity, capable of exercising rational, competent and
conciliatory national leadership.

However, his reliance on his Zanu
PF heavyweight friends to haul in the vote for him could be his undoing if
they should decide to stick with Mugabe after all, as vice-president Joice
Mujuru has done.

Chofamba Sithole is a Zimbabwean journalist. This
article was originally published by the Royal African Society. E-mail: chofamba@yahoo.co.uk

Three tried and tested ways to fix
Zimbabwe's ailing economy

Business Day

14 March 2008

Evan
Pickworth

I-Net
Bridge

AS ZIMBABWE faces up to the pain and ridicule of cumulative
hyperinflation of 3,5-million percent since 1998, a leading world economist,
Steve Hanke, suggests a rather controversial solution: get rid of their
central bank.

Hanke, a previous economic adviser to Ronald Reagan and now
professor of applied economics at the prestigious Johns Hopkins Uni-versity,
has published a report, Zimbabwe: Hyperinflation to growth, in which he
explains his observations and solutions to the mess.

He draws
parallels between the Zimbabwean hyperinflation and the plot followed by the
German mark during the great German hyperinflation of the 1920s. This leads
him to say that "worse is yet to come".

He says the root cause of
hyperinflation is that government policies have forced the Reserve Bank of
Zimbabwe (RBZ), headed by Gideon Gono, to print money.

"From January
2005 to May 2007, the RBZ issued currency at a rate that even exceeded that
of Germany's central bank from January 1921 to May 1923, the ramp-up phase
of the great German hyperinflation," he said.

He says that replacing
the central bank with a new monetary regime is therefore the best way to
stop hyperinflation as it signals a "clean break" with the practices that
have created hyperinflation.

"It would give Zimbabweans reliable
assurances that inflation will henceforth be controlled."

Hanke
acknowledges that while countries such as Angola and Mozambique have checked
inflation in the hundreds of thousands of percent a year by changing
policies and yet retaining central banks, he feels it is far too late in the
day for Zimbabwe.

"Given the current state of affairs in Zimbabwe and
the dramatic hyperinflation, the only way for Zimbabwe to make a credible
commitment to stop the hyperinflation rapidly and avoid high transition
costs is to replace central banking with a different type of monetary
regime."

Three options exist: official "dollarisation", adopt free
banking; and introduce a currency board.

"None of these options
requires preconditions prior to their implementation and any one of them
would establish stability and restore economic growth," Hanke
says.

He points out that Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador are no less
sovereign after adopting the dollar.

"Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria
and Bosnia and Herzegovina are no less sovereign for having currency board
or currency board-like systems."

Consider also Montenegro. "It became an
independent sovereign state in 2006 largely because it replaced the Yugoslav
dinar with the German mark (now euro) in 1999.

"Using the euro
enabled Montenegro to break loose from the bad economic policies undertaken
at the time by Serbia, its much larger partner in the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia.

"The effect of dollar-isation or a currency board is not to
create a colonial relationship, but to achieve more credibility than a local
central bank can," he says. In Zimbabwe, official dollarisation could take
the form of using the rand, US dollar or the euro.

"If Zimbabwe uses
the rand it could negotiate a profit-sharing agreement such as Lesotho and
Namibia now have." SA shares the profit it derives from issuing currency
according to estimates of how many rand notes and coins are in circulation
in the partner country.

The revenge of the dead

Zimbabwe Today

How 20 murder victims, killed
six years ago, have returned to haunt Mugabe

This is an unpleasant and
disturbing story. If you have a sensitive nature you might be well advised
to skip it. It concerns the unidentified corpses of 20 murder victims which
have lain, unknown and unclaimed, on the slabs of a Zimbabwe mortuary for
six years.

The slain are believed to have met their fate at the hands of
the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) during the 2002 election. Today
frantic efforts are being made to get them buried before they become a
scandalous issue in the current election.

I have spent some days
investigating this story, and these are the facts as I have been told
them:

The victims were all supporters of the Movement for Democratic
Change (MDC), Zimbabwe's official opposition, and were from the Lupane
district. After the murders, and to cover their tracks, the CIO had the
bodies transferred to neighbouring Nyaki, where they were dumped in the
local morgue.

And there they remained. In Zimbabwe any burial requires an
order from the police, who cannot issue the order before investigating the
death. But the Nyaki police were reluctant to begin inquiries, partly
because of the scale of the task, and partly because they feared they would
put themselves in danger.

The bodies might have stayed in the
mortuary for ever, if it wasn't for the national fuel shortage. This has
led, as we all know, to widespread and lengthy power cuts. Refrigeration has
failed. And those 20 bodies are now in an advanced state of decomposition.
The morgue is part of the hospital complex, and near Nkayi business centre.
Enough said.

For this and other reasons, Nkayi Rural District Council,
who are responsible for the morgue, have finally lost patience. They have
written to the appropriate ministries demanding explanations and
action.

And as a result, the Provincial Medical Director for Matabeleland
North, Dr. Irene Ndiweni, has been spending days at Nkayi lately, cobbling
together the necessary paperwork to get the bodies buried, and thereby
forgotten.

By the time you read this she may have succeeded, certainly in
getting the corpses underground. The human stench may be gone. But the
stench of violence, corruption and murder from an election six years ago
will remain. And it will hang over this election in a thick and noxious
cloud.

Engulfed by sewage

BULAWAYO, 14 March 2008 (IRIN) - To get to
Sinikiwe MaKhumalo's doorstep in Zimbabwe's second largest city, Bulawayo,
visitors have to step on a thin plank perched precariously over a trench
that prevents sewage from flowing into her house.

The 57-year-old
grandmother has endured this arrangement to access her home in the city's
Old Magwegwe working class suburb for the past five months after a sewer
burst close to her residence.

Service delivery has collapsed in Bulawayo,
after local authorities recently announced that the municipality was
insolvent and unable to cater to the needs of its almost two million
residents

"The disgusting odour is awful and becomes more unbearable by
the day," she lamented over the city municipality's failure to repair burst
sewers in her locality.

"I just hope a new team that cares about
residents' welfare will be elected to take over the running of the city at
the end of the month".

Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold presidential,
provincial and municipal polls on 29 March.

MaKhumalo's neighbour,
Ingrid Mayobodo, fearful that her two children would contract communicable
water-borne diseases, sent them to live with her sister in another suburb.
"I could not stand them playing 'hop-skip-and-jump' over pools of sewage
effluent to get into the house from the street."

She feared her
children risked contracting diseases in such an unhealthy environment.
"Mosquitoes are a menace at night. We keep doors and windows shut at all
times, living like we are in prison to avoid mosquitoes getting
indoors."

Mayobodo suggested the council should at least spray the
pools of sewage effluent with insecticide to control mosquito breeding or
use disinfectants to suppress the nauseating stench. "We can no longer enjoy
our meals in such conditions."

Possible disease outbreak

The
city's unsanitary conditions has left residents fearful of a fresh outbreak
of cholera. The last outbreak occurred at the height of a water crisis in
2007 when close to 300 people were hospitalised and 11 died as a result of
drinking contaminated water.

The region's consistently low rainfall in
the last few years had led to dwindling water levels in the city's dams.
Heavy seasonal rain in December 2007 and January 2008 has filled up most of
the city's supply dams, allowing for water restrictions to be lifted and
enabling residents to flush their toilets after use.

However, the
sewer pipes remain blocked, resulting in sewage overflowing into the streets
from manholes: "Our major problem is a shortage of manpower to deal with
more than 500 reported cases of sewer bursts," Phathisa Nyathi, the city
municipality's spokesman, told IRIN.

Expensive toilet
paper

Council workmen at work on a burst sewer in Old Magwegwe told IRIN
that maintenance of the aging sewerage system was a daunting task, but it
was aggravated by residents flushing down solid objects, causing sewer pipe
blockages.

"At times we retrieve stones, broken glass, spoons, rags
or mops and other hard objects when clearing blockages in the system,"
council worker Jotham Ncube said.

Ncube said most of the families
could no longer afford standard toilet paper and have had to resort to
newspapers or torn pieces of cardboard boxes for their ablutions.

"It
is no longer unusual to find entire sheets of a newspaper, used sanitary
pads, children's shirts or shorts among items blocking the system", he
said.

Zimbabwe is grappling with a more than 100,000 percent annual
inflation rate - the highest in the world - and unemployment levels of about
80 percent.

Blockages were also occurring from the accumulation of
sand in sewer pipes. "People use river sand to clean their soot-covered pots
because they cook over wood fires when electricity is cut off during load
shedding (a euphemism for electricity outages) instead of commercial
scouring powders that are soluble," Ncube said. The dirty water was then
flushed down the toilet.

Magwegwe Residents Association chairman
Bazara Banyana rejected the argument that apportioned blame on residents and
said people had always used the same methods of ablutions and cleaning of
their utensils.

He said residents cannot be expected to condone the
absence of services when the residents pay rates and taxes to the council in
the expectation of the provision of those
services.

rm/jk/go/oa

(END)

This article does not
necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies.

Zimbabwean Teachers End Strike After 754% Pay
Hike

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AFP)--Thousands of teachers in
Zimbabwe's state schools have ended a three-week strike after being awarded
a 754% salary increase by the government, their union said on
Friday.

"We urge teachers to return to work," said Raymond Majongwe,
secretary general of the Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe, calling the
salary increase a victory for teachers and the nation.

Majongwe said
the government agreed to hike the monthly teachers' salary to 3.4 billion
Zimbabwe dollars ($115), up from ZWD369 million.

About 100,000 teachers
walked off the job country-wide three weeks ago, demanding a salary review
and better working conditions.

The action led to some schools, especially
in the capital Harare, advising pupils to stay home. Those who attended
spent most of their time on playgrounds or in self-arranged study groups as
teachers either stayed at home or gathered in staff rooms.

Tuesday,
Zimbabwe's embattled President Robert Mugabe said his government had awarded
civil servants a huge pay rise ahead of joint presidential and legislative
elections set for March 29.

Mugabe, 84, who is seeking a sixth term in
office, also awarded salary increases to members of the security forces last
month.

While welcoming the increases, Majongwe expressed concern at the
government's failure to review housing and transport allowances.

"The
reluctance by the employer to increase the transport and housing allowances
while significantly reviewing the basic salary is motivated by the
government's desire to tax teachers at the 47.5%.

"This will seriously
erode the gains accruing from the salary review."

Majongwe added that
"whichever party will form the next government after the March election
should brace for our uncompromising mood."

The southern African country
is in the midst of an economic crisis marked by the world's highest
inflation rate of 100,580%, widespread food shortages and 80%
unemployment.

Teachers are migrating in droves to neighboring Botswana,
Mozambique and South Africa, many taking menial jobs to earn money to
support their families back home.

Zimbabwe teachers demand $10bn
salaries

Zim Online

by Nokhutula Sibanda Saturday 15 March
2008

HARARE - Zimbabwe's teachers, who were this week awarded
huge salary increments, are now demanding new salaries of Z$10 billion a
month warning that they would resort to more strike action to press their
demands.

Raymond Majongwe, the secretary general of the militant
Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe, said the new government elected
during the 29 March elections should brace for more crippling strikes from
teachers.

"We should remain organised for action. We have new demands for
the second quarter - April to June 2008. Our demand for the second quarter
is Z$10 750 600 (officially about US$325 000 but a mere US$300 on the widely
used parallel market).

"Whichever party shall form the next
government after the March elections should brace for more strike action
from teachers because we are still not happy with the increments," said
Majongwe.

Teachers were pleasantly surprised this week when they saw huge
salary deposits into their bank accounts.

The lowest paid teachers
now earns about $3.9 billion a month, a huge jump from the $500 million they
earned last month while the highest paid teacher now earns about $5.7
billion a month.

Political analysts said the move to award teachers and
other government workers huge salary increments, a few weeks before a key
election, smacked of vote-buying tactics by President Robert
Mugabe.

The Zimbabwe government is desperate to placate hundreds of
thousands of workers who are battling to make ends meet as they struggle
with rampant inflation that at over 100 000 percent is the highest in the
world. - ZimOnline

Mugabe cannot fool Zim's young

The Sowetan

Bill Saidi

14
March 2008

If President Robert Mugabe, who has set
himself a punishing campaign schedule for the March 29 elections, suddenly
fell ill it's certain his handlers will summon a physician who specialises
in ailments that afflict very old people - 84 years
old.

Such a doctor specialises in geriatrics, a branch of
medical science concerned with the diagnosis and treatment of diseases
affecting elderly people.

Such a doctor would not be needed if either
Morgan Tsvangirai or Simba Makoni took ill on their campaign trail. Both men
are in their 50s.

In fact, one could say that, if Mugabe had been married
in his 20s, he could have fathered either man.

Let me go even further
and suggest, without appearing to be facetious, that this presidential race
is about fathers and sons.

Any cynic could ask : "Why would the voters of
Zimbabwe even hesitate who they ought to vote for. An 84-year-old man or two
young men in their 50s? Isn't this what the bookies would call a 'no
contest'"?

But this is Zimbabwe, the country with the highest inflation
rate in the world, record unemployment and where the average man can expect
to live to just 35 years.

The cause of this terrifying state of
affairs is the collapse of the healthcare system, which followed the
collapse of the economy, beginning with the reckless invasion of white
commercial farms by war veterans in 2000.

One of the presidential
candidates, the geriatric, is generally held responsible for this state of
affairs. He prefers to blame it all on sanctions, imposed on his country by
the British, Americans and any other white person who was incensed by his
takeover of the farms previously run profitably by white farmers.

He
subsequently forced them out of the country. Most left the country without a
penny to their names.

If all this sounds suspiciously like propaganda
churned out by opponents of the 84-year-old man who needs a geriatrician,
then you will be forgiven.

Most young people in Zimbabwe have refused to
accept that the country's economy has been enfeebled by the sanctions
alone.

They cite corruption in high places, the mismanagement of the
economy by a government still nostalgic about its disastrous
Marxist-Leninist experiments in the early days of independence.

They
also cite the flight of many qualified Zimbabweans - among them doctors,
bankers, architects, economic planners and brain surgeons - from a country
in which dissent is not tolerated and The Word of one man, the geriatric, is
supposed to be sacrosanct.

The old man recently chided the young people,
especially the young bankers who fled the country, because according to the
equally young governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe they were not being
honest in their dealings with depositors' funds.

Mugabe actually
spoke as if the young bankers had been convicted of something heinous, such
as grabbing candy out of the mouths of babies.

If that were so, why are
most of these young people prospering wherever they are operating
today?

The old man is extremely frightened of young people, which is why
the two young people hoping to take over the presidency from him are careful
not to dwell too much on the question of his age.

Things look
terrific to him, though they are really terrifying.

I can say all this
because I am not in the contest. I am safe . at least for the
moment.

Businesses Under Fire for Makoni
Links

Institute for War & Peace Reporting

Authorities carpet business leaders they suspect of backing President
Robert Mugabe's chief rival.

By Nonthando Bhebhe in Harare (AR No.
160, 14-Mar-08)

The Zimbabwean authorities are cracking down on
businesses they suspect of backing Simba Makoni, the former finance minister
who has emerged as a serious challenger to President Robert Mugabe in this
month's elections.

The crackdown is seen as a sign of how seriously
Mugabe and his allies in the ruling ZANU-PF party take the newcomer. Last
month, Makoni shocked the party - of which he was a member - by announcing
he would stand against the incumbent. He was summarily kicked out of the
party and pilloried in speeches by the president.

In the latest
example of the regime's determination to keep itself in power, IWPR has
learned that retailers and other top businesspeople who supply basic
commodities were summoned to a meeting on February 4 at the offices of
Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono.

On arrival, however, they were
informed that the meeting had been convened not by the central bank, but by
the Joint Operations Command, JOC, a powerful body chaired by Zimbabwean
army commander-in-chief General Constantine Chiwenga and consisting of
military, police, intelligence and prison system chiefs. The JOC coordinates
military and security affairs and many observers believe it carries more
real clout than the cabinet.

In a sign of what the meeting was going to
be about, the head of the National Incomes and Pricing Commission, Godwills
Masimirembwa, was also in attendance.

According to a source at the
central bank, the hostility and tension in the room was palpable as the
business leaders walked in. JOC members were waiting in full military
uniform.

The officials proceeded to berate the business chiefs for
defying the price controls that Mugabe ordered last June in what proved to
be an unsuccessful bid to check the country's galloping inflation. In the
weeks that followed the measure, as retailers were forced to slash prices by
50 per cent, wholesalers and manufacturers ran into difficulties,
enterprises went under, and the ensuing shortages of food and other items
were compounded by panic-buying.

This time, however, the JOC's
allegations were that the businesses were involved in more than flouting
price controls. The principal accusation was that they were allocating funds
to support Makoni's election campaign.

One by one, business leaders were asked to explain why there were
shortages of basic commodities and why, if they lacked the foreign currency
to buy goods or manufacturing inputs, they had not applied to the Reserve
Bank for it.

According to sources at the central bank, Willard
Zireva, chief executive of a major supermarket chain called OK, was
questioned about why the shelves in his stores were empty when other
retailers such as the Spar group and corner shops did have stock. Why did
his supermarkets close whenever there was a power cut? He should have
sourced foreign currency from the Reserve Bank to pay for imported
generators, officials said.

"They plainly told him that he was doing it
deliberately and that they knew he supported Super Tuesday," said the bank
source.

"Super Tuesday" refers to Tuesday, February 5, when Makoni
announced his election bid.

"They also told [Zireva] that they were
aware that he was pouring huge amounts of money into the Super Tuesday
project."

Other executives faced a similar barrage of detailed questions
and accusations.

National Foods managing director Jeremy Brooke, for
example, was accused of inflating the price of flour his firm sold to
bakeries. He was challenged on the price he bought and sold flour for, with
officials producing documents that ostensibly showed two sets of accounts,
one at the official retail price, and the other reflecting the higher price
the flour was really sold at.

The National Foods chief defended
himself, insisting that he had sold flour at the official price. His
arguments made Vice-Air Marshal Henry Muchena so angry that he ordered him
to leave the room.

Brooke was arrested later in the week on charges of
breaching the price control legislation, and Mike Manga, who leads Blue
Ribbon Foods and is also chairman of the Millers' Association of Zimbabwe,
was detained on similar charges relating to flour pricing.

IWPR's
source said all the businessmen summoned to the March 4 meeting were
directly or indirectly accused of sponsoring the Makoni candidacy. Subtle
threats were made that they should stop financing Makoni or face big
problems.

The JOC made it clear it suspected that by maintaining
shortages and covertly hiking prices, businesses were pursuing a political
agenda of ensuring Mugabe and ZANU-PF lost the presidential and
parliamentary elections.

"This was the highest level of intimidation
to stop funding of Simba Makoni, " said a top executive, who did not want to
be named. "It has always been obvious that Simba had the support of the
local businesspeople and it seems that they want to end
that.

"ZANU-PF desperately wants to win, and losing is not an option.
They want to make sure that in the period before the elections there is
bread at reasonable prices and other foodstuffs that are currently in short
supply."

IWPR has learned from a different central bank source that
Shingi Munyeza, chief executive of the Zimbabwe Sun Leisure Group, was
called to a separate meeting at the Reserve Bank and threatened over his
alleged support for Makoni. Both men come from Manicaland
province.

"He was called in and told about all his financial support and
contributions to the Makoni project and was obviously told to stop giving or
else," said the source.

Makoni is seen by many - including some
former Mugabe loyalists - as a pragmatic politician who might offer a way
out of the current impasse in which the president defies all domestic and
foreign criticism of economic and social policies seen as
disastrous.

With the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC,
unlikely to topple Mugabe, especially as the March 29 presidential,
parliamentary and local elections may be less than free and fair,
disgruntled ZANU-PF figures are believed to have decided an inside job was
needed, devising what has become known as the "Makoni
project."

However, few big names actually raised their own heads above
the parapet when Makoni went public with his election bid, presumably
anticipating - correctly - that retribution would be swift.

Makoni's
biggest backer, retired army commander General Solomon Mujuru, is now under
investigation for corruption.

In further efforts to frustrate the Makoni
bid, two car retailers have been instructed to halt all sales until after
the elections, so that the challenger's campaign team cannot acquire
vehicles. Fuel supplies have been earmarked for ZANU-PF
campaigners.

All printing companies have been booked up by ZANU-PF so
that the opposition cannot get material published. The MDC has had to get
its election literature printed in South Africa.

Meanwhile, the
authorities have invited foreign election monitors to watch the polls, but
only from countries seen as friendly, in other words not the United States
or European countries.

Fallacy of the secret ballot in Zimbabwe

New Zimbabwe

By Dr Alex
T. MagaisaLast updated: 03/15/2008 00:30:52AN EAGLE-EYED participant at
the Zimbabwe Diaspora Forum UK meeting that I attended in London on
Saturday, March 8, 2008, alerted me to a subtle aspect of the electoral
process that is liable to abuse.

It concerns the extent to which, if at
all, the actual voting procedure protects secrecy. A closer look at the
legal provisions providing for actual voting under the Electoral Act reveals
some loopholes that appear to negate the secrecy of the voting
process.

Innocent though these provisions may appear at first sight, they
nevertheless raise a number of concerns from a practical point of view. By
considering provisions in comparable jurisdictions, this article seeks to
highlight the significance of the risks they pose to the fairness of the
electoral process.

Presiding Officer's official mark

Section
57 of the Electoral Act provides for the practical aspects of voting. It
states in paragraph (b) that prior to handing over the ballot paper to the
voter, the presiding officer is required to place an official mark on the
ballot paper.

The official mark made by the presiding officer is,
presumably, designed to authenticate all ballot papers used in the voting
process. However, the trouble is that there is no indication in the law as
to where the official mark should be placed on the ballot paper.

The
implication is that the presiding officer may place it in any position on
the ballot paper. This assumes greater relevance when considered together
with the requirement for the voter to show the official mark to the
presiding officer after he has voted.

The risk is that the presiding
officer's mark may be placed in a position where concealment of the voter's
own mark may be compromised. If a voter perceives that the presiding officer
may actually see his vote, this potentially compromises the expression of
his free will.

To negate this risk, Section 38 (5) (c) of South Africa's
Electoral Act provides specifically that the presiding officer must place
the official mark on the back of the ballot paper. This ensures, at the very
least, that the presiding officer does not have the liberty to place the
official mark in a position that affects the voter's free
will.

Importantly, it allows for consistency as to where the presiding
officers should place the official mark and also reduces the perception that
the voter's choice may be revealed to the presiding officer.

'Holding
Up' the ballot paper

After the voter has signified his choice, he is then
required under Section 57 (c)(iii) to fold the ballot paper so that the
official mark made by the presiding officer is visible but concealing the
names of the candidates and where he has placed his cross. Crucially, the
provision stipulates that the ballot paper must be 'held up' so that the
presiding officer can recognise the official mark that he would have placed
moments earlier. Thereafter, the voter will place the ballot paper in the
ballot box, 'placed in front of the presiding officer'.

This
prescriptive provision which directs the voter to 'hold up' the ballot paper
to the presiding officer when showing him the official mark is unnecessary
and prone to abuse. The rationale for such a prescriptive provision is not
immediately clear. Why should it be necessary to 'hold up' the ballot paper
as opposed to simply showing the official mark to the presiding officer in
any other way?

The trouble is, depending on the quality of the ballot
paper or indeed the ink used to place the cross on the chosen candidate,
there is a risk that when the ballot paper is 'held up' as directed and if
this is against a light background, this could potentially reveal the
voter's choice. This possibility, however small, can give rise to
perceptions that there is no secrecy and, therefore, may affect the voter's
choice.

By comparison, Section 38(6)(d) of South Africa's Electoral Act
states, very simply, that the voter is required to show the folded ballot
paper to the presiding officer so that he can see the mark. There is no
specific, potentially prejudicial, requirement for the ballot paper to be
shown to the presiding officer in a particular manner, such as 'holding it
up'. Any way will do, so long as the presiding officer sees the official
mark.

Similarly, in Tanzania, the voter is simply required to show the
back of the ballot paper to reveal the official mark. The Zimbabwean
requirement for 'holding up' the ballot paper is unnecessary and potentially
compromising especially given that the presiding officer has great liberty
to place the official mark in a position that could potentially reveal the
voter's choice.

Provisions for Illiterate Voters

Section 59 of
the Zimbabwe Electoral Act provides for assistance to illiterate voters.
Similar provisions apply to physically incapacitated voters under Section
60. It requires that at the request of such a voter, the presiding officer
may provide such assistance in the presence of two other election officers
or employees of the Electoral Commission. Clearly, there is no provision for
the presence of independent eyes and ears on such occasions.

This is
a direct contrast to Section 39(1) of South Africa's Electoral Act, which
requires that such assistance by the presiding officer must be provided in
the presence of a representative of an accredited observer and two
representatives from different parties, where available.

This clearly is
designed to have independent verification and also to give confidence to the
voter. In the case of Zimbabwe, it is ironic that not even the 'friendly'
observers that have been invited can be trusted! This provision creates
negative perceptions on the part of voters who may be sceptical of the
impartiality of the Commission's staff.

But the most dangerous aspect of
Section 59 is that it enables the presiding officer to put questions to the
voter who has requested assistance in order to clarify his choice of
candidate. It states that 'the presiding officer may cause such questions to
be put to the voter as, in his/her opinion, are necessary to clarify the
voter's wishes". There is no comparable provision in the South African
law.

This is an ominous provision, especially in a country where the idea
of being questioned about one's choice is a frightening prospect. It is hard
to understand what could be less clear about a voter's choice so as to
require 'questioning' by the presiding officer. It is harder still, given
that the ballot papers are required to have photographs of the candidates
and surely even an illiterate person can simply point by finger to his
choice?

Even if there is a risk of misunderstanding, I am not sure that
such a risk is sufficient to require a legal provision that enables the
presiding officer to put questions to the voter. It is unnecessary and
provides room for abuse. That this questioning can also take place in the
absence of any independent observers raises further concerns.

South
African law even allows the voter to take a person of his choice to assist
him, so long as he is over 18 and not an election agent. In other words, the
voter needing assistance is not restricted to the presiding officer whom he
may not trust and also whose political persuasion he may not
know.

Worse still, the Zimbabwean law requires that the names of all
persons who have been assisted must be recorded on a list. There may be a
perfectly good reason for this but one cannot overlook the fact that 'lists'
during election times are part of a very nasty and frightening vocabulary,
especially in the rural areas.

The collective effect of these
provisions becomes significant when one considers that the bulk of the
voters are in the rural areas and the higher chances of encountering those
who cannot read or write and therefore presumably requiring 'assistance'.
The presiding officer may be well known (and feared) in and around the
community. That is not a person who can be trusted with the legal power to
'question' voters for clarification. Voters are more likely to vote not to
express free will but to secure personal security.

There are, of
course, Sections 86 and 187, which seek to protect the secrecy of the voting
process but it is difficult to see how they sit alongside Sections 57 and 59
which regulate the manner of voting in a way that is potentially
prejudicial. There is a very real concern that the much vaunted 'secrecy' of
the ballot may be nothing more than a charade. The South African law is not
perfect, but the Zimbabwean version certainly leaves a lot more to be
desired.

Humor Helps Zimbabweans Beat Economic Stress

VOA

By
Derek MoyoHarare, Zimbabwe14 March
2008

Many Zimbabweans say they are despondent and depressed
over shortages, price hikes and other challenges. But on-going economic
decline has also created its own brand of biting humor. From Harare,
Loirdham Moyo describes some of the banter used by people reacting to
serious problems.

As the cost of beef, chicken and pork soars, housewives
have created their own slang to describe new dishes. Fun and humorous, the
uninitiated won't have a clue what people are talking about unless they've
been given a clear explanation.

For example, the cheapest and lowest
grade of beef costs at least 17million Zimbabwe dollars per kilogram. This
is partly why housewives now compete for the cheapest available delicacies,
some which were shunned not too long ago.

When some women say they
are preparing "full chicken" for supper, they are actually cooking the
quella (a tiny bird) found in wheat plantations in the lowveld. The animals
are trapped by villagers along the Save river at night, when they roost.
They are an extremely popular replacement for impossibly scarce
chicken.

Amid ongoing shortages of water, residents of many urban centers
now refer to gathering rainfall from their roofs as "gathering manna from
Heaven". Most suburbs go for days without having a single drop of water from
the taps. Many say - thanks to the rainy season - they now rely on downpours
for drinking water and laundry.

Additionally, housewives make a cheap
dish of cabbage more appetizing by referring to it as a cow's head or a
pig's head, while green vegetables are referred to as "green
meat".

The list of unavailable items lengthens, including a shortage of
cell phones and poor (if any) TV and radio transmissions. Fed up Zimbabweans
now say these services - when not available -- are "on voicemail". Most have
become accustomed to not being able to contact business associates,
relatives or friends. let alone watching their favourite
programs.

Some government para-statals have been re-named. The Zimbabwe
Electricity Supply Authority, or ZESA, has been dubbed "The Zimbabwe
Electricity Sometimes Available". Others say any acronym starting with a "Z"
means bad news and no service. Included on the list is the water authority
ZINWA, now called "Zimbabwe No Water Available", and the Zimbabwe Republic
Police. The latter has been re-named the Zanu Republic Police due its
partisan support for the ruling ZANU party.

Zimbabweans say if it
wasn't for humor, they couldn't overcome the daily challenges they face.
They say humor is the best way to alleviate stress.

Anglicans set up emergency fund for Harare
diocese

HARARE - A £50 000 emergency fund has been set up for
the Harare Anglican following refusal by the expelled bishop Nolbert Kunonga
to relinquish control of diocesan funds.

Kunonga, a pro-President
Robert Mugabe cleric, was expelled from the church after he unilaterally
attempted to pull the Diocese of Harare out of the Church of the Province of
Central Africa (CPCA) ostensibly over homosexuality issues.

The
controversial cleric has refused to give up control of the diocesan
accounts, making it hard for his replacement Bishop Sebastian Bakare to fund
church activities as well as pay clerical staff.

Following Bakare's
appeals when he visited the United Kingdom recently, a £50 000 fund has been
established to cover for clergy stipends and other ministerial
work.

England's dioceses of Southwark and Rochester, which are both
companion link dioceses with Zimbabwe, have teamed up with Lambeth Palace,
the Mothers' Union and the Anglican mission agency USPG to provide Bakare's
leadership interim support.

"The fund will initially run for one year
to allow Harare Diocese to get back on its feet and move towards
self-sufficiency once again," said the Rev Canon Chad Gandiya, USPG's
regional desk officer for Africa.

"This kind of support is essential to
ensure confidence in the new direction the church is
travelling."

Bakare or his spokesman could not be reached for comment
yesterday.

The (CPCA) which controls the Anglican church in the region
has since petitioned the High Court to compel Kunonga to surrender the
church's property and divest himself of the rights of being a signatory to
the Diocese of Harare's bank accounts and investments.

Kunonga, who
at the weekend urged Zimbabweans to vote for Mugabe in this month's
harmonised elections because he was "Zimbabwe's anointed leader", insists he
has not been expelled from the church and has since formed his own Province
of Zimbabwe.

He has been accused of hiring thugs to beat up parishioners
who attend services under Bakare.

The controversial bishop also
refuses to recognise a provisional High Court ruling that ordered both
factions to hold services at parish churches but at different times. -
ZimOnline

Zimbabwe's government
mouthpiece Herald newspaper said it had obtained documents showing that
Ncube made the payment on February 26 through a South African bank in order
to provide campaign materials for Makoni, Mugabe's former finance
minister.

It was unclear how the Herald obtained the
documents. Ncube, a Zimbabwean who also publishes two of the country's only
three remaining private newspapers the Standard and the Independent, denied
the claims, the paper reported.

Zimbabwe's electoral laws
make it an offence for parties to receive foreign
funding.

The newspaper said another man believed to be a
South African national made a payment of R20 000 to the Makoni campaign on
the same day.

"It does appear that you are on a fishing
expedition who I am likely to vote for. May I remind you that my vote is a
secret," Ncube told the Herald.

"You will be aware that
in the recent past I have published my views on political issues and will
continue to do so. I have never been secretive about my political
affiliations and it is not my intention to use the Herald for that purpose,"
Ncube said in a statement to the paper.

Mugabe, who has been
in power here since 1980, will face Makoni and opposition leader Morgan
Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in the March 29
polls. - Sapa-DPA

JAG scenario analysis communique, Dated 14
March 2008

JAG
Hotlines: +263 (011) 610 073, +263 (04) 799 410. If you are in troubleor
need advice, please don't hesitate to contact us - we're here to
help!----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------IDASATHE
NUMBERS GAME: WHAT COULD COME AFTER MARCH 29TH?Research and Advocacy Unit
& States in Transition Observatory

The forthcoming elections are
provoking considerable excitement, mainlyover whether Robert Mugabe will
survive the most serious challenge yet tohis political hegemony over
Zimbabwe. However, it seems very difficultto anticipate what outcomes there
could be in early April. In part thisis because the electoral laws need some
clarification, particularly theapparent conflict between Section 110(3) and
Paragraph 3 of the SecondSchedule of the Electoral Act, and in part because
of the very complicatedpolitical situation in Zimbabwe and the apparent
splits within ZANU PFover whether Mugabe should remain in
power.

Dealing with the first issue, Section 110(3) of the Electoral Act
statesthat the winner in the first round of a Presidential election must
havean absolute majority of the valid votes cast, however Paragraph 3
suggeststhat the Chief Election Officer has the power to declare as the
winner thecandidate with the "greater" or the "greatest" number of votes.
Paragraph3 of the Second Schedule is a hangover from the previous Electoral
Act,and, if the principles of good legislative interpretation are followed
-which may not be the case - then the substantive clause, Section
110(3),should prevail.

The relevance for this discussion is that
Mugabe may fall back on what onecommentator has called the "sophisticated"
Kibaki strategy if he fails toget the absolute majority he needs. He gets
the Chief Election Officer todeclare him the winner, even if he only gets
49% or less of the vote - aslong as he has more than the others - and then
argues the toss in the courts,if the losing candidates feel that they
can take this option. He can avoidthe "crude" Kibaki strategy - of just
getting himself declared the winner- by using the contradiction in the
Electoral Act between Section 110(3)and Paragraph 3 of the Second
Schedule.

However, elections are complex processes, and, whilst they are
evidentlyabout the transfer or maintenance of political power between
parties, theyare also about popularity, and it is popularity that gives
credibility tothe transfer or maintenance of political power. In the current
"harmonised"elections, this means that credibility for the various political
partieswill come from having won both the presidential and the
parliamentaryelections, and with what kind of majority they obtain this
win.

So, for Mugabe, it is essential that he and ZANU PF win both the
presidentialand the parliamentary elections with clear majorities. This
will allowhim to be sworn in by the Chief Justice, to demand the allegiance
ofthe armed services and chiefs and to continue to claim sovereignty
andforestall any external interference. If he were to win the
presidency,but lose the parliament or have the opposition get a blocking
third of theseats, as they did in 2000, he will have considerable difficulty
governing,let alone convincing the world at large that he remains a popular
leader.

Now, for the first time in Zimbabwe's history, it is not a
forgone conclusionthat ZANU PF will win, and we are faced with a
multiplicity of contendersof real substance. We have four candidates for the
presidential election,with three very substantial and plausible candidates.
We have two majorparties, ZANU PF and MDC, contending for the parliamentary,
senate, and localgovernment elections, but we also have a large number
of "independents";some of whom are genuine independents, and some of whom
are supporters ofSimba Makoni (a presidential contender) but probably owe
their allegiance toZANU PF. We also have many indicators of severe
dissatisfaction with Mugabewithin ZANU PF, but it is impossible to know how
extensive this is andhow this will affect the presidential election. Whilst
the dissatisfactionwith Mugabe can have very powerful effects on the
presidential election,it would seem probable that this will not translate
into dissatisfactionby the electorate with the party. ZANU PF "dissidents",
whether publicor not, will want the party to win, but probably not want
Mugabe tocontinue as President.

All of this suggests a large number
of possible outcomes, which are dependenton a wide range of factors; the
effectiveness of all the current votebuying, the success of rigging, the
control of the electoral machinery,and, of course, the ways in which the
electorate will vote. After all,elections are empirical events, and numbers
count in the final analysis. Sowhatever the flaws, it will matter what the
turnout looks like, and whetherthe numbers are plausibly
distributed.

Focusing on all the factors that make up a free or flawed
election isimportant, but if we focus on what can happen with the numbers,
irrespectiveof the validity of the process, it is possible to see that these
electionscan have many different results. The table below summarises the
possibleoutcomes, both presidential and parliamentary, and looks at these
withregard to the major interest in these elections: will Mugabe stay or
go?

NB. Please note that the scenarios below were originally in a
tabulatedformat which, for transmission purposes, was impossible to retain.
Hence,it has been converted into plain text. Anyone wishing to have the
originaltable, please request from jag@mango.zw.-----------------------------------------------------------------1.
Mugabe wins: with real majority, rigged poll, "sophisticated" Kibakioption,
or "crude" Kibaki option.

Scenario 1:-

?clear
resultPresidential result - Mugabe wins with more than 50%Parliamentary
result - ZPF gets 2/3 majorityRisk to Mugabe - Safe

Scenario
2:-

?clear resultPresidential result - Mugabe wins with more than
50%Parliamentary result - ZPF gets 2/3 majorityRisk to Mugabe -
Vulnerable

Scenario 3:-?clear resultPresidential result - Mugabe
wins with more than 50%Parliamentary result - MDC (opposition) gets 50% to
2/3 majorityRisk to Mugabe - in danger

2. Run-off in Presidential
election: No absolute majority for anycandidate.

Mugabe vs TsvangiraiPresidential result -
Tsvangirai wins with Makoni supportParliamentary result - ZPF has 2/3
majority or even no majorityRisk to Mugabe - In danger

Scenario
4:-

Mugabe vs MakoniPresidential result - Makoni wins with Tsvangirai
supportParliamentary result - ZPF has 2/3 majority or even no
majorityRisk to Mugabe - Vulnerable.

Scenario 5:-

Mugabe vs
TsvangiraiPresidential result - Tsvangirai wins on own, or with Makoni
supportParliamentary result - MDC (opposition) has majority or 2/3Risk
to Mugabe - In serious danger

Scenario 6:-Mugabe vs
MakoniPresidential result - Makoni wins on own, or with Tsvangirai
supportParliamentary result - MDC (opposition) has majority or 2/3Risk
to Mugabe - in
danger-----------------------------------------------------------------

Taking
the first scenario, which is predicated on Mugabe winningthe presidential
election, it can be seen that there are threesub-scenarios. Here it is
assumed that Mugabe may have won (legitimately ornot) and, of course, an
illegitimate victory will probably be challengedby the losers, whether in
the courts or by other political action. Aclear majority is seen as
questionable in all three sub scenarios as,on present evidence, it does not
seem that Robert Mugabe is very popularanywhere in the country. But,
notwithstanding the manner of victory, itcan be seen that this victory may
be accompanied by a series of differentdevelopments. ZANU PF could win the
parliamentary elections with eithera clear two-thirds majority or less than
this. ZANU PF could also end upwith less than a majority and even less than
two-thirds.

In the first sub-scenario, Mugabe would be president and,
assuming thathis candidates of choice win their seats in the parliamentary
elections,we remain in the status quo. He can govern, use his Presidential
powers,make changes to the constitution, pass budgets, and keep the world
offhis back. Court challenges to his victory he can manage, as he has
donebefore, by just dragging the process out interminably, and, providing
thearmy continues its support, he can deal easily with internal dissent.
Hisown personal safety would seem assured here.

In the second
sub-scenario, Mugabe would not have quite the same legislativepowers, and
his credibility would be severely damaged by the demonstrationthat his party
is no longer as popular as it appeared in 2005. He wouldalso be vulnerable
to parliamentary attack if ZANU PF dissidents were tostart allying
themselves with the positions of the opposition, and thefractures within
ZANU PF might become more and more apparent.

The third scenario would
leave Mugabe in obvious danger. If the opposition -MDC and independents -
were to have either a majority in parliament, or moreseriously had a greater
than two-thirds majority, he would not be able togovern at all, could be
vulnerable to direct personal attack by impeachmentor the like, and his
political credibility would be irrevocably damaged.Furthermore, if his
victory was not genuinely won, he would be in veryserious trouble in this
situation.

However, having three substantial candidates for the
presidential electionraises other possibilities, and the most likely is that
no one gets anabsolute majority in the first round. This seems very
possible, given thatTsvangirai obtained 42% of the vote in 2002, and these
were genuine votes.Assuming some loss of popularity for Tsvangirai, it still
seems likely thathe would get about 35% of the vote. Makoni would then only
need to get 15%for there to have to be a run off, and, given the reported
dissatisfactionwithin ZANU PF for Mugabe's continuation in power, this might
be a littleon the conservative side. A betting man would not agree with
Makoni that hewill get 70% of the vote, but it would seem a safe bet to
suggest that hewill do much better than a mere 15%. If the electorate split
their votesbetween Tsvangirai and Makoni, then Mugabe might even go out at
the firstround, but this seems unlikely.

Thus, a run-off seems very
probable and opens up many more scenarios, as wasseen from the table above,
none of which look very promising for Mugabe,and here the results of the
parliamentary elections become crucial. Itshould be remembered that the
run-off will take place three weeks afterthe parliamentary elections should
have been finalised, so the balance offorces in the parliament will be
known.

In the two sub-scenarios where ZANU PF has won a clear two-thirds
majority inparliament, Mugabe has the possibility of doing a deal with
the malcontentsin the party. If he has to run off against Tsvangirai, he may
be able topersuade the Makoni faction and others to support him, probably in
exchangefor a clear process of succession to Makoni. This will depend
enormouslyon whether the ZANU PF malcontents will trust Mugabe to keep his
word, andalso on the support that they have already in parliament.
ConstitutionalAmendment 18 provides for the election of the President by
parliament,so succession could happen quickly, but whether the dissidents
will trustMugabe will depend on who the chosen heir or heiress is, and how
confidentthey are that they can control Mugabe in
parliament.

Nonetheless, these two scenarios do leave Mugabe vulnerable
and having tobargain from a position of weakness, which will be an unusual
experiencefor him.

The sub-scenario where the opposition has a
blocking third in parliamentis considerably less comfortable for Mugabe. In
the event of a run-offagainst Makoni, he faces the clear danger that the
opposition willthrow their support with Makoni and he will lose. Even if he
were towin, he would have all the difficulties in governing mentioned
earlier,plus his own credibility would be seriously questioned due to the
evidentdemonstration that he is not popular. He would also have great
difficultiesin making some sort of deal with his dissidents as electing his
successorthrough parliament might be problematic: the opposition and the
Makonisupporters would have much more power in determining the choice of
heir,which would not suit Mugabe at all.

The other sub-scenarios,
where the opposition has a majority or a two-thirdsmajority in parliament,
place Mugabe in much more danger. A run-off againstTsvangirai, where the
opposition already had a majority, could easily leadto a Tsvangirai victory,
where the electorate sense an easy opportunity toget rid of him, and the
poll might then become a test of his popularityonly. Much the same could
happen with a run-off against Makoni, but thedifference here is that the
opposition would not fear a Makoni presidencysince they control the house.
The key here is that even the rural electoratemight sense Mugabe's weakness
and take the opportunity to shift allegiances,and this might not be so
unlikely against the background of the economiccrisis and the very palpable
food shortage. Although the general trendin the rural electorate has been
to vote for whom they think will win, andthis has been so clearly Mugabe to
date, the politics of patronage mightwell fall apart in the run-off
situation where the rural populace get thenotion that Mugabe will
lose.

So, making the assumption that the process of the elections do not
matteressentially, it can be seen that Robert Mugabe will only be secure in
one ofthe nine scenarios outlined. Unless he can ensure, by either his
popularityor rigging, that he wins the presidential election by an absolute
majority,and that ZANU PF has an unassailable majority in parliament, all
the otheroutcomes place him at risk.

Some place him at much greater
risk than others, but in general thepossibilities suggest that his days are
very definitely numbered. And evenif he were able to achieve the very first
scenario, that he andZANU PF win handsomely, it is evident that the
political terrain hasdramatically shifted in the past six weeks, and that a
political transitionof sorts is now happening. However, much will depend on
the results ofthese elections, and many strange things can still
happen.

Zimbabwe: A Society "Not Ready for Female Leadership"?

IPSnews

By
Tonderai Kwidini

HARARE, Mar 14 (IPS) - Women make up about half the
population in Zimbabwe. But, they're far from accounting for 50 percent of
those on the ballot for this month's general elections in the Southern
African country -- sparking concern amongst gender activists.

None of
the four presidential candidates in the Mar. 29 ballot is a woman; during
the last poll for head of state, held in 2002, Elizabeth Madangure competed
alongside five other, male candidates.

Of the 730 parliamentary hopefuls,
only 99 are women (13.6 percent), while 63 of the 195 candidates running for
the senate are female (just over 32 percent) -- this according to figures
from the Women in Politics Support Unit (WiPSU), a non-governmental
organisation based in the capital of Harare. Zimbabwe will also hold local
government polls at the end of the month; however, IPS could not obtain
statistics for the gender of local government candidates at the time of
publishing this report.

During the last legislative elections in March
2005, 57 women ran for parliament out of a total of 273 aspirants (about
20.9 percent of candidates). Female candidates accounted for 34 percent of
those who contested senate polls in November 2005: 45 women were involved in
this race, and 87 men (these figures again provided by
WiPSU).

Statistics for the number of women who contested the last local
government elections, in 2005, could not be obtained.

This year will
mark the first instance in which Zimbabwe holds presidential, parliamentary,
senate and local government polls on the same day, the result of a
constitutional amendment passed last year. General elections will now be
held every five years.

"From the figures, it shows that there is a huge
disparity (between female and male candidates) which needs a lot of
attention," said Luta Shaba, executive director of the Women's Trust, a
non-governmental organisation in Harare. The trust has been at the forefront
of the '50-50' campaign, an initiative to have women account for half the
names on the ballot.

"The question to ask is what is it that should be
done to increase the number of female candidates? Voting women into
parliament means that women's issues will become national
issues."

For Rutendo Hadebe of the Women's Coalition of Zimbabwe, an
umbrella group for various rights organisations, having more women
candidates involves fighting chauvinism among political parties, and
encouraging women to believe that they can compete for office
successfully.

"The society that we are living in seems not ready for
female leadership," she told IPS. "But we are saying as a movement that we
will continue pushing."

The electoral race is largely focused on the
ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), the larger
faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and the Mavambo/Kusile
of Simba Makoni -- a grouping also referred to as 'New Dawn'. Makoni, an
erstwhile ZANU-PF member and former finance minister, broke ranks with the
party to challenge President Robert Mugabe. ("Mavambo" is a Shona word
meaning "beginning", while "kusile" -- from the Ndebele language -- means
"dawn".)

The MDC, Zimbabwe's main opposition group for several years,
split in 2005.

In the case of ZANU-PF, 44 of its 214 parliamentary
aspirants are women (20.6 percent) and 27 of 59 senate candidates (almost 46
percent).

These figures (the latest available from the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission, or ZEC, at the time of publication) show the party has some way
to go in fulfilling its 2005 pledge to raise the proportion of its female
candidates to 30 percent across the board.

"In instances that we have
women volunteering to take up political posts they are faced with...having
to choose whether to commit family resources to the political cause or
feeding the family," said a member of the ZANU-PF Women's League who asked
for anonymity. "Political parties do very little to support women candidates
financially, and there lies the problem."

A list of parliamentary and
senate candidates from the larger faction of the MDC, led by Morgan
Tsvangirai, show this party has 25 women among its 209 legislative
candidates (just under 12 percent) -- along with 18 of the 60 senate
aspirants (30 percent).

"We are not happy with the female figures in this
election," said Sekai Holland, the faction's secretary for international
relations, herself a senatorial candidate. "Getting the female agenda
going...remains a big fight."

The other MDC faction -- headed by
Arthur Mutambara -- is fielding 19 women in the parliamentary poll out of a
total of 144 candidates (13.2 percent). Women also account for six of the
faction's 34 senate candidates (17.6 percent) -- this according to figures
from the ZEC.

Statistics published in the local press by Mavambo/Kusile
indicate the grouping will field eight women among its 51 parliamentary
candidates (15.7 percent) -- and three women among its nine senatorial
hopefuls (about 33 percent).

The polls will see all 210 parliamentary
seats being contested, compared to 120 in 2005. Previously, an additional 30
legislative seats were filled in part by presidential nominees, bringing the
total number of parliamentarians to 150.

In the case of the senate,
59 seats are to be filled (a further 21 will go to traditional chiefs and
presidential nominees, amongst others). Initially, there were 60 senate
seats in play for the election; however, one of these has already been won
by a ZANU-PF candidate who was elected unopposed at the nomination
court.

Local government candidates will compete for 1,968
posts.

The Inter-Parliamentary Union notes that Zimbabwe presently has 24
women in parliament (16 percent of legislators), and 24 in the senate -
which currently has 66 members (giving women control of approximately 36
percent of the upper house).

According to the ZEC, 17 parties are
participating in the elections; the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network puts
the number of voters at some 5.6 million.

Even if all female
candidates running in this month's legislative and senate polls win, the
country will still find itself falling short of regional goals concerning
women's representation in government. A 1997 declaration by the Southern
African Development Community set Zimbabwe and other member states the
target of having women in 30 percent of decision-making posts by 2005 -- a
goal since adjusted to 50 percent.

This month's vote comes amidst
political and economic turmoil in Zimbabwe, where hyper-inflation and
unemployment have impoverished most citizens, and where food and fuel
shortages are the order of the day.

Human rights abuses that undermined
the credibility of previous polls continue, as Amnesty International noted
in a Jan. 24 press statement that detailed an assault on persons trying to
attend an MDC rally addressed by Tsvangirai.

"Amnesty International has
corroborated evidence of torture and ill-treatment of activists while in
police custody..." the statement added.

Mugabe, running for a sixth term
in office (and in power since independence in 1980), accuses Western nations
of conspiring with his opponents to undermine Zimbabwe, following a
controversial land redistribution campaign that saw farms owned by minority
whites confiscated for the resettlement of landless blacks. A number of
influential Zimbabweans stand accused of seizing farms in the course of this
campaign.

The European Union did introduce sanctions against Zimbabwe in
response to the problematic 2002 presidential elections; and, the
deteriorating situation in the country prompted the United States to follow
suit the next year. However, these measures involve travel restrictions and
asset freezes directed at high-ranking officials, rather than steps against
ordinary Zimbabweans.

The exclusion of election observer teams from
countries critical of the ZANU-PF government has deepened fears that the
upcoming polls will not be free and fair -- as have claims about
manipulation of the voters' roll and inadequate voter education.
(END/2008)