History on Rudd's chances

The landscape of Australian politics has changed dramatically. It is not only Kevin Rudd who now has to change the way he operates. Tony Abbott confronts a similar challenge.

Rudd, of course, was really elected not to govern the country, but to lead an election campaign: at worst to reduce the losses Labor was facing under Julia Gillard, at best to try to pull off an improbable victory - surely the most improbable since Paul Keating's ''sweetest victory of all'' in 1993.

Well, it's a new game now, and it's time he joined the adults and let his better side out.

But to win the election, he will have to impress us in governing the country. If Voterland ever cared about his appalling mismanagement in his previous term, it has clearly forgiven him. I suspect it will be less indulgent if insider leaks start telling us of similar problems the second time around.

Illustration: Andrew Dyson

Abbott now faces a dilemma. Now that he faces a more formidable opponent, on a honeymoon with the voters, does he continue with the sledgehammer negativity that proved so successful in undermining both Rudd and Gillard? Or does he put it behind him, and start explaining to us why he should be prime minister, rather than why Rudd/Gillard/Rudd should not?

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Rudd has recorded a honeymoon bounce in the polls: lifting Labor to 49 per cent of the two-party vote in the Galaxy poll and Newspoll, and 48 per cent in the ReachTEL poll. That's probably not close enough to win, although John Howard won in 1998 with only 49 per cent, but makes this a real contest.

Interestingly, ReachTEL, the first poll off the blocks, found Rudd narrowly preferred to Abbott as prime minister, by just 51-49. In the two later polls, that lead stretched out to 51-34 in Galaxy, and 49-35 in Newspoll. For the Abbott camp, that is worrying.

But as Rudd admits, he has a long way to go. To put Labor in a winning position, it is not enough to maintain honeymoon support levels. He needs to lift them, significantly, by the way he runs his government and campaign.

Why? Three reasons:

■ Public opinion is fickle. Ask John Brumby, Jeff Kennett, Kim Beazley, Mark Latham. All were in winning positions at this stage out from the elections that effectively ended their political careers. Governing is risky: every decision costs you support from someone. The spotlight on the Prime Minister is remorseless, particularly when much of the media is run by partisans making propaganda for your opponents.

We've been here before, not long ago. In the last three months of 2012, on average, the polls found Gillard 10 points ahead of Abbott in The Age/Nielsen poll, and Labor trailing the Coalition just 48-52 after preferences. Newspoll's results were similar. It didn't last. Abbott softened his look and language, and took to wearing light-blue ties and having female relatives beside him everywhere he went. And Gillard came unstuck.

■ This is an unusual election: the government actually has to gain votes to hold on to office. Labor's slim majority included the seats of independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, and former Speaker Peter Slipper. All three seats are certain to return to the Coalition, which means it effectively starts with 75 of the 150 seats, while Labor has only 71. To win, Rudd will have to gain a swing to Labor - something no Age/Nielsen poll has shown since the election all those years ago.

■ Of Labor's 20 most vulnerable seats - including Craig Thomson's - 10 are in NSW. If the name Eddie Obeid means anything to you, you will get my point. Even after Rudd's return last week, the Fairfax Media ReachTEL polling in two Labor seats in western Sydney still found swings of 5 per cent to the Liberals. That alone implies a loss of up to 10 seats.

Rudd's efforts to reach out to business have got nowhere. Some groups made impractical demands for Labor to withdraw its legislation to stop rorting of section 457 visas - which, as I reported earlier, has meant that in two years Australian-born workers have gained just 34,000 new full-time jobs. Brendan O'Connor as minister deserves credit for trying to restore the integrity of the system so that it operates as intended.

Now Business Council chairman Tony Shepherd is demanding the federal election be held ''as soon as possible''. Funny, I don't recall the Business Council demanding an early election in 2001, when John Howard prolonged his government five weeks into a fourth year, or in 2007, when he went on six weeks into year four. The business lobbies are now partisan players, and they're not giving Labor any hugs and kisses this side of the election they expect it to lose.

But Abbott's problems are just as large. There is now a risk, albeit small, that he could lose the unloseable election. His judgment in coming weeks will have to be sharply attuned to the electorate, not to his camp followers.

It is normal for opposition leaders to trail prime ministers in popularity, but I cannot recall any opposition leader winning with his popularity at the level Abbott has now. Even Mark Latham in the 2004 campaign had 51 per cent approval from voters. Abbott was rating well below that when Rudd took over. The latest Newspoll found his support down to 35 per cent.

The reason is simple: he keeps rolling out the same old mantras, to the same rusted-on supporters, rather than trying to win the middle ground. His recent policy statements on industrial relations and northern Australia passed muster as sensible policies, but we need a lot more. What would the Coalition do to improve Australia's educational performance? Its hospitals? Public transport infrastructure? We either don't know, or for public transport, his answer is: nothing!

Tony Abbott is a Rhodes Scholar, and a gifted speaker who can use the English language with a creative twist. Why does he keep talking in slogans, ignoring the questions he is asked, and treating Australians like children? Perhaps it's because so far, it's worked.

Well, it's a new game now, and it's time he joined the adults and let his better side out.

For a start, he could admit that if Rudd won the leadership through ''treachery'' by ''the faceless men'', as he claims, so did Abbott himself. Ask Malcolm Turnbull.

Don't just stop the boats, Tony. Stop the humbug.

Tim Colebatch is economics editor of The Age.

436 comments

" ... much of the media is run by partisans making propaganda for your opponents ... " One can only assume Tim's tongue was stuck firmly in cheek when he wrote this, or it is a rare case of a Fairfax writer being honest about what he sees in the mirror.Hilarious statement, considering the partisan article surrounding it.

Commenter

jase

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 8:10AM

Simple slogans or vebral diarhoea..... both with no substance ..... take your pick

Commenter

abc

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:06AM

Given that we've had an absolute flood of one sided anti-Gillard opinion recently, I think this is quite a balanced no BS article stating how it is.

Of course, whenever someone states the facts, the Abbott crowd get all up in arms because they don't like a balanced media stating things as they are.

But the reality is, Rudd is back. Rudd is credible. People like Rudd. And they still cannot stand Abbott and his old ways.

Commenter

Tone

Location

Melboure

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:07AM

Just because Tony Abbott is a Rhodes Scholar, it does makes him a really smart or intelligent person.

Just like the fact that he went to a private school doesn’t make him a polished or classy person.

There is a lot of bogan in Tony Abbott.

Commenter

aja

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:08AM

Highlighted in a great question to the panel of Q & A last night......"Under a reformed Rudd government do you think there will now be a place for genuine politicians who reject spin and who simply want to tell it like it is without deceit and manipulation, or is this a hopelessly idealistic expectation belonging to a bygone era in politics and utterly out of step with the Orwellian realities of electioneering in the new millennium?" I think the major words here was deceit & manipulation which Tony, Joe & Julie have been found out.

Commenter

Bazza

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:09AM

Funny how everyone's perspective is so aligned with their own bias. I didn't think the article was particularly one-sided.

Commenter

Luke

Location

Sydney

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:10AM

Jase, are you serious? this article is distinctly well balanced compared with those newspapers that are aggressive voice pieces for the right wing. get real, please.

Commenter

Michael

Location

Michael

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:11AM

Of course you could try and find a pro labor article in one of the other papers

Commenter

polly hannah

Date and time

July 02, 2013, 9:13AM

Jase, were you complaining about the media when Julia was copping it? She had ten times the scrutiny Abbott did.Instead of demanding 'election now!', how about 'policies now', so we can have decent time to consider what Abbott wants to do? His so-called 'suite' of policies shouldn't be left to the 11th hour to avoid scrutiny.