Statistics

OK, this isn't a hard-core statistical analysis like the Mathlete would do, just some fun with numbers. We have a rather bipolar team this year (Offense #5 in TO, Defense #105 in TD), and I thought it would be interesting to look at what our opponents' Total Offense and Total Defense stats would look like if they hadn't played us - and what kind of a difference it would make in their overall ranking of NCAA stats.

The NCAA stats are not linear, of course, and a difference of 1 yd/gm can be a large or small difference in rankings depending on how closly spaced everyone is. So as I cautioned, this isn't a hard-core statistical exercise. It is interesting to look back at the early games and see how well we did in comparison to what other teams ended up doing against them - what seemed like a good or bad performance at the time may look different in retrospect.

Part the First: Offense

We know our offense is great, but what kind of damage has it done to the Total Defense (TD) ratings of our opponents? Here they are thus far:

Opponents' Total Defense, Season

Opponent

Games

Yards Yielded

Yds/gm

NCAA Rank

Connecticut

9

3277

364.11

56

Notre Dame

10

3803

380.30

66

Bowling Green

10

4205

420.50

94

Indiana

10

4116

411.16

89

Michigan State

10

3279

327.90

28

Iowa

10

3070

307.00

16

Penn State

10

3567

356.70

52

Illinois

10

3448

344.80

38

Purdue

10

3644

364.40

57

What would these guys' defensive stats look like if they hadn't played Michigan?

Michigan Offensive Performances

Opponent

Total Offense, M

Opp. Avg - M,
Yds/gm*

M Total Offense,
% of Opp Avg - M**

NCAA Rank
Without M

Connecticut

473

350.50

135%

46

Notre Dame

532

363.44

146%

56

Bowling Green

721

387.11

186%

77

Indiana

574

393.56

146%

78

Michigan State

377

322.44

117%

27

Iowa

522

283.11

184%

6

Penn State

423

349.33

121%

44

Illinois

676

308.00

219%

18

Purdue

395

361.00

109%

53

*Opponents' average Total Defense yards per game, minus the Michigan game

**Michigan's Total Offense in game as a % of the opponent's average TD minus the Michigan game

So Michigan has gained above our opponents' average yardage yielded in every game thus far, and their TD ranking has suffered as a result. What's the damage?

The Michigan Difference, Offense

Opponent

TD Rank With M

TD Rank Without M

Difference

Connecticut

56

46

-10

Notre Dame

66

56

-10

Bowling Green

94

77

-17

Indiana

89

78

-11

Michigan State

28

27

-1

Iowa

16

6

-10

Penn State

52

44

-8

Illinois

38

18

-20

Purdue

57

53

-4

Average change in Total Defense ranking for all opponents: -10.1 places.

Part the Second, Defense

So the flipside of this, then, is how much has our defensive suckitude helped out our opponents stat sheet? Where would they rank in TO without having played us? We'll run the same tables again, but from the opposite tack:

Michigan Opponents' Offensive Performances, Season

Opponent

Games

Yards Gained

Yds/gm

NCAA Rank

Connecticut

9

3057

339.67

87

Notre Dame

10

3874

387.40

49

Bowling Green

10

2883

288.30

114

Indiana

10

3915

391.50

53

Michigan State

10

4168

416.80

34

Iowa

10

4049

404.90

46

Penn State

10

3597

359.70

74

Illinois

10

3671

367.10

71

Purdue

10

3051

305.10

107

First thing that jumps out at me is that none of these are world-beater offenses thus far. They're functional and solid for the most part, but even the best is merely above average. We can't really blame our bad defensive performances on having come up against a bunch of awesome offenses. Anyway, how'd they do against us?

Michigan Defensive Performances

Opponent

Total Offense, Opp

Opp. Avg - M,

Yds/gm*

Opp Total Offense,

% of Opp Avg - M**

NCAA Rank

Without M

Connecticut

343

339.25

101%

88

Notre Dame

535

371.00

144%

68

Bowling Green

283

288.89

98%

114

Indiana

568

371.89

153%

67

Michigan State

536

403.56

133%

50

Iowa

383

407.33

94%

44

Penn State

435

351.33

124%

78

Illinois

561

345.56

162%

85

Purdue

256

310.56

82%

105

* Opponents average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game

** Opponents TO as a percentage of their average offensive performance, minus the Michigan game

To summarize:

The Michigan Difference, Defense

Opponent

TO Rank With M

TO Rank Without M

Difference

Connecticut

87

88

+1

Notre Dame

49

68

+19

Bowling Green

114

114

0

Indiana

53

67

+14

Michigan State

34

50

+16

Iowa

46

44

-2

Penn State

74

78

+4

Illinois

71

85

+14

Purdue

107

105

-2

Average boost to opponents' Total Offense NCAA ranking: +7.1 places

So we've had four really bad defensive outings (ND, Ind., MSU, Ill.) and a four decent ones (UConn, Iowa, PU, BG). The PSU game doesn't look so bad from this perspective - still not good, but far from our worst outing when compared to others.

Part the Third: Summary

The Michigan Difference, Overall

Opponent

Michigan's O Difference

on Opp TD Ranking

Michigan's D Difference

on Opp TO Ranking

Connecticut

-10

+1

W, Good O, OK D

Notre Dame

-10

+19

W, Good O, Terrible D

Bowling Green

-17

0

W, Awesome O, OK D

Indiana

-11

+14

W, Good O, Terrible D

Michigan State

-1

+16

L, OK O, Terrible D

Iowa

-10

-2

L, Good O, OK D

Penn State

-8

+4

L, Good O, Bad D

Illinois

-20

+14

W, Awesome O, Terrible D

Purdue

-4

-2

W, OK O, OK D

Takeaways from these numbers (as opposed to other numbers or observations):

We played well at Iowa and were beaten by a better team.

We played badly against MSU on both sides of the ball; they might have beaten us anyway with good performances, but not likely.

The loss to PSU doesn't look like such a bad outing from this angle. Maybe PSU is better than we gave them credit for.

Awesome offense wins, terrible defense doesn't necessarily lose.

Our offense is better at offending than our defense is bad at defending.

What a difference two weeks makes. Instead of talking about throwing Molotov cocktails at Schembechler Hall, the MGoCommune is talking about New Year's Day bowl games. Unfortunately, an evil capitalist conspiracy of rain, Ryan Kerrigan, and poor decision-making led Denard to his worst statistical day of the season. Four turnovers (two INTs, two fumbles) does not a Heisman candidacy make, and it's hard to imagine Denard getting back in the race this year unless we beat both Wisconsin and O State.

Let's hope the Purdue game really was about the weather and not about Purdue's DL: because we face two stout defensive lines to close out the regular season. A lot of the records that Denard seemed certain to break before Saturday are much closer calls now.

Prefatory Verbiage

Suggestions are welcome. If you have found an interesting statistic or record that you think I should add to this list, please put it in the comments section and I'll add it to the original post (and give you credit).

Review the disclaimers. Football has evolved considerably over its 141-year history, much more so than other major sports, and that is important to keep in mind when talking about all-time records. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team.

New This Week

New to this week's Almanack is a "Miscellaneous Records" section to highlight records broken by other players this year, such as Roy Roundtree's single-game receiving mark set against Illinois. I also added a passage in the Disclaimers section about college football scoring conventions prior to 1912.

Week in Review: Denard Sets the Michigan Total Offense Season Record

Denard was 13 of 21 passing for 188 yards, 1 TD, and 2 interceptions, for a rating of 128.97, well below his averages. Even worse, he ran for only 68 yards on 22 carries, for a season-worst YPC of 3.09. Once again, the postgame commentary on the Purdue game failed to highlight what a remarkable season Comrade Denard is having. Unnoticed on Saturday was the fact that Denard set Michigan's single-season record for total offense, breaking John Navarre's 2003 mark of 3,240 yards.

Of the other prominant dual-threat QBs, Cam Newton ran for 151 yards and threw for 148 against Georgia to clinch the SEC West title (and a 14th game); Colin Kaepernick ran for 153 and threw for 171 in a comeback victory against Fresno State; and Taylor Martinez ran for 71 and threw for 167 in a 20-3 victory over Kansas. LaMichael James, Denard's leading rival for the FBS rushing title, moved into first place with 91 yards in a hard-fought win against Cal.

Records of the Week: NCAA Single-Season QB Rushing; 1500/2000 Club

Denard's season rushing total now stands at 1,417 yards, 77 yards short of Beau Morgan's FBS record of 1,494, set in 1996. If Denard gains 83 against Wisconsin, he will become the first major-college player in history to both rush and pass for 1,500 yards in a single season. If he passes for 10 yards against the Badgers, he will also become the first member of the 1500/2000 club.

Despite his relatively poor numbers against Illinois, Denard maintained possession of the Michigan career yards-per-carry record with a minimum of 200 attempts, with 6.5 YPC. The previous record had been held by 6.3 YPC by Jon Vaughn (from 1989-1990).

However, with his sloppy performance against Purdue, Denard lost possession of Michigan's single-season YPC record. Before Saturday, he was at 7.4 YPC for the year; today, he's at 6.0, well below Tyrone Wheatley's 7.3 mark set in 1992.

Denard continues to hold on to the Michigan career pass-efficiency record with a minimum of 200 attempts, at 149.1. The previous record was 148.1 by Elvis Grbac (from 1989-1992), and Elvis had the benefit of a Heisman Trophy-winning receiver. Denard's 149.1 mark is also on pace for third all-time in the Big Ten, though he needs 300 completions to qualify for that record (he currently has 145).

Quarterbacks as NCAA Rushing Champions

A quarterback has never led the NCAA FBS in rushing yards over a single season. In 1937, the first year in which the NCAA kept official football statistics, Colorado halfback Byron "Whizzer" White led the nation in rushing with 1,121 yards, along with 475 passing yards. (If that wasn't enough, White also went to Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship, played in the NFL for Pittsburgh and Detroit, served in World War II during which he was awarded two Bronze Stars, came back and graduated from Yale Law School, and was appointed by John F. Kennedy to the Supreme Court of the United States.)

This year, Denard could become the first quarterback in history to finish the season as the NCAA rushing champion (by yards gained). He currently has gained 1,417 yards on the ground. LaMichael James of Oregon is 5 yards ahead having played one less game. James has a bye next week, so Denard is likely to regain the lead, at least temporarily, against Wisconsin.

On a yards-per-game basis, James is in first place with 158.0 (Denard has fallen to third with 141.7, behind James and Connecticut's Jordan Todman). Personally, I find the YPG statistic to be arbitrary: should Denard be punished because the Bowling Green game was a rout, and LaMichael James be rewarded because he was suspended for one game for pleading guilty to harrassing his ex-girlfriend? FWIW, on a yards-per-carry basis, Denard is still ahead of James.

Note that Cam Newton will play in the SEC championship game, and thereby have an extra game to pad his stats. Newton, however, is 203 yards behind Denard, despite the extra tilt. Here are the top 5 rushers in the country, sorted by yards gained:

Player

Team

Carries

Yards

YPC

Games

YPG

TD

LaMichael James

Oregon

224

1,422

6.35

*9

158.0

17

Denard Robinson

MICH

205

1,417

6.91

10

141.7

12

Kendall Hunter

Oklahoma St.

226

1,356

6.00

10

135.6

16

Cameron Newton

Auburn

206

1,297

6.30

11

117.9

17

Bobby Rainey

W. Kentucky

268

1,244

4.64

10

124.4

11

* - LaMichael James was suspended for Oregon's first game against
New Mexico for pleading guilty to a misdemeanor.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Game

Denard currently holds the Michigan and Big Ten records for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game: 258 vs. Notre Dame. The NCAA FBS record is 308, on 22 attempts, by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, against Fresno State, on Oct. 6, 1990.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Season

Denard currently has 1,417 rushing yards in 10 games. This projects to 1,842 over a 13-game schedule. He owns the Big Ten record, previously set by Antwaan Randle-El in 2000 with 1,270 yards, and has destroyed the previous Michigan record for QB rushing yards in a season: 674 by Steve Smith in 1981.

Before you get too overwhelmed by all the numbers in this diary, just stop and think about that for a minute. Denard Robinson, your starting Michigan quarterback, playing before your very eyes, has more than doubled a Michigan football record, with four games to go. And not just any record, but one that has stood for three decades. Even if you account for the fact that we're playing a very different style of football now—it's just incredible.

The NCAA FBS record is 1,494 by Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1996. This record is easily within reach. Denard only has to average 26 rushing yards a game over the rest of the season to break the NCAA FBS record.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Career

There's no point in projecting Denard's career rushing totals, since we don't even know how he'll do this year (or if his knee will hold up), nor if he will stay for his senior season. But here are the records:

Michigan's career record is held by Rick Leach (1975-1978) at 2,176 yards: a record Denard will break this year, at his current pace. Denard needs to average 136rushing yards a game to take this title. (Guys like Leach and Steve Smith must salivate at what they could have done in the offense of Comrade Rodriguez.) The Big Ten record is Antwaan Randel El's (1998-2001) at 3,895 yards. The NCAA FBS record is held by Pat White (2005-2008) at 4,480 yards.

The NCAA FBS per-game career record is 109.1 yards by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, achieved from 1988-1990 over 25 games.

Rushing Records (At Any Position)

For a single game, the Michigan record is 347 by Ron Johnson in 1968 against Wisconsin; the Big Ten record is 377 by Anthony Thompson of Indiana in 1989 against Wisconsin; the NCAA FBS record is 406 by LaDainian Tomlinson of TCU in 1999 against UTEP.

For a single season, the Michigan record is 1,818 yards (Tshimanga Biakabutuka, 1995); the Big Ten record is 2,087 yards (Larry Johnson, Penn St., 2002); the NCAA FBS record is 2,628 yards (Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988). Denard can break Touchdown Tim's Michigan record by averaging 117 yards per game over the rest of the season.

That Barry Sanders record will be around for a while, but remember that Denard is on pace for 1,842 with a 13-game schedule; he will need a couple of great games against Wisconsin and Ohio State to get within striking distance of Larry Johnson's Big Ten record.

For a career, the Michigan record is held by Mike Hart (5,040 yards, 2004-2007); the Big Ten record is held by Ron Dayne (7,125 yards, 1996-1999); the NCAA FBS record is also held by Ron Dayne, but they list it as 6,397 yards. (Herschel Walker of Georgia holds the record for a 3-year career at 5,259 yards, set from 1980-1982.)

The 200/200 Club

Much has been made of the fact that Denard is the only player in FBS history to gain 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing twice in regular-season games. To me this is a silly distinction—who cares if it was done in the regular season or a bowl game? If anything, Vince Young's performance in the 2005 Rose Bowl against USC is even more remarkable, given that that USC team is considered one of the most dominant teams of the modern era. Wake me up when Denard gets his third 200/200 game. (He did go for 191/190 against Penn State.)

Anyway, here are the 200/200 games listed in the NCAA record book, sorted by total offense. You'll note that Denard is the only member of the 240/240 club, and Marques Tuiasosopo is the only member of the 200/300 club.

Player

Team (Opponent)

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Marques Tuiasosopo

Washington (Stanford)

1999

207

302

509

Vince Young

Texas (Oklahoma St.)

2005

267

239

506

Denard Robinson

MICH (Notre Dame)

2010

258

244

502

Denard Robinson

MICH (Indiana)

2010

217

277

494

Reds Bagnell

Penn (Dartmouth)

1950

214

276

490

Brad Smith

Missouri (Nebraska)

2005

246

234

480

Brian Mitchell

La.-Lafayette (Colo. St.)

1987

271

205

476

Antwaan Randle-El

Indiana (Minnesota)

2000

210

263

473

Vince Young

Texas (USCRose Bowl)

2005

200

267

467

Patrick White

W. Va. (Pittsburgh)

2006

220

204

424

Steve Gage

Tulsa (New Mexico)

1986

212

209

421

The 1000/1000 Club

There are 30 quarterbacks (and one halfback, Johnny Bright of Drake) in FBS who have run and thrown for 1000 yards in the same season. Of these, none have both run and passed for 1500 yards (the rushing record for QBs is 1,223).

Seven quarterbacks have achieved this milestone multiple times: Brad Smith (thrice), Colin Kaepernick (twice and counting), Vince Young (twice), Pat White (twice), Beau Morgan (twice), Joe Webb (twice), and Joshua Cribbs (twice). Only two people have joined the 1000/1000 club as freshmen: Brad Smith of Missouri, and Joshua Cribbs of Kent State. Air Force leads the overall list with five different QBs, in six different seasons, in the 1000/1000 club. (It is interesting that an instrument of American capitalist imperialism, the U.S. Air Force Academy, is the premier exponent of communist football.)

As noted above, Denard joined the 1000/1000 club on his first drive against Iowa. As noted above, he should easily become the first member of the 1500/1500 and 1500/2000 clubs. The list below of 1000/1000 members is sorted this list by rushing yards.

I've also added 2010 season totals for Cam Newton, Taylor Martinez, and Colin Kaepernick, three dual-threat quarterbacks who are likely to surpass 1000/1000 this year (Kaepernick already did so in 2008 and 2009, and Newton already has for 2010).

Player

Team

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Dilithium (on pace for)

MICH

2010

1,842

2,587

4,429

Newton (on pace for)

Auburn

2010

1,651

2,594

4,245

Beau Morgan

Air Force

1996

1,494

1,210

2,704

Joe Webb

UAB

2009

1,427

2,229

3,726

Denard Robinson

MICH

2010

1,417

1,990

3,407

Jammal Lord

Nebraska

2002

1,412

1,362

2,774

Brad Smith

Missouri

2003

1,406

1,977

3,383

Chris McCoy

Navy

1997

1,370

1,203

2,573

Patrick White

W. Virginia

2007

1,335

1,724

3,059

Brian Mitchell

La.-Lafayette

1989

1,311

1,966

3,277

Brad Smith

Missouri

2005

1,301

2,304

3,605

Cameron Newton

Auburn

2010

1,297

2,038

3,335

Dee Dowis

Air Force

1989

1,286

1,285

2,571

Beau Morgan

Air Force

1995

1,285

1,165

2,450

Antwaan Randle El*

Indiana

2000

1,270

1,783

3,053

Johnny Bright (HB)

Drake

1950

1,232

1,168

2,400

Chance Herridge

Air Force

2002

1,229

1,062

2,291

Patrick White

W. Virginia

2006

1,219

1,655

2,874

Keith Boyea

Air Force

2001

1,216

1,253

2,469

Ricky Dobbs

Navy

2009

1,203

1,031

2,234

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2009

1,183

2,052

3,235

Dwight Dasher

Middle Tenn.

2009

1,154

2,789

3,943

Michael Desormeaux

La.-Lafayette

2007

1,141

1,405

2,546

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2008

1,130

2,849

3,979

Dan LeFevour

Central Mich.

2007

1,122

3,652

4,774

Eric Crouch

Nebraska

2001

1,115

1,510

2,625

Craig Candeto

Navy

2003

1,112

1,140

2,252

Scott Frost

Nebraska

1997

1,095

1,237

2,332

Michael Carter

Hawaii

1991

1,092

1,172

2,264

Vince Young

Texas

2004

1,079

1,849

2,928

Joshua Cribbs

Kent State

2002

1,057

1,014

2,071

Vince Young

Texas

2005

1,050

3,036

4,086

Josh Nesbitt

Ga. Tech

2009

1,037

1,701

2,738

Bart Weiss

Air Force

1985

1,032

1,449

2,481

Ell Roberson

Kansas St.

2002

1,032

1,580

2,612

Brad Smith (Fr.)

Missouri

2002

1,029

2,333

3,362

Joe Webb

UAB

2008

1,021

2,367

3,388

Joshua Cribbs (Fr.)

Kent State

2001

1,019

1,516

2,535

Reggie Collier

So. Miss.

1981

1,005

1,004

2,009

Darian Hagan

Colorado

1989

1,004

1,002

2,006

Woodrow Dantzler

Clemson

2001

1,004

2,360

3,364

Taylor Martinez

Nebraska

2010

957

1,328

2,285

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2010

946

2,161

3,107

* Previous Big Ten record for rushing yards by a quarterback

Total Offense

Denard already owns the Michigan single-game total offense record (502 yards against Notre Dame). In fact, Denard has broken the old Michigan single-game total offense record four times this year, with games of 502, 494, 383, and 381 yards. (The previous record was 368 by John Navarre against Iowa in 2003.) Against Illinois, Denard almost broke this record again, gaining 367: giving him five of the six highest totals in Michigan history.

Player

Opponent

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Denard Robinson

Notre Dame

2010

258

244

502

Denard Robinson

Indiana

2010

217

277

494

Denard Robinson

Connecticut

2010

197

186

383

Denard Robinson

Penn State

2010

191

190

381

John Navarre

Iowa

2003

-21

389

368

Denard Robinson

Illinois

2010

62

305

367

As noted above, Denard is also on pace to annihilate John Navarre's single-season total offense record of 3,240 in 2003 (Denard has 3,407 as of today, and projects to an astounding 4,245 yards over 13 games).

The Big Ten single-game total offense record is 585 yards by Dave Wilson of Illinois, vs. Ohio State in 1980. The Big Ten single-season total offense record is 4,189 yards by Drew Brees of Purdue in 2000, which is well within Denard's reach. Denard has to average 261 yards of total offense in his remaining games to pass Brees; he is currently averaging 341.

The NCAA total offense records are dominated by prolific passers. Those records appear to be unattainable by Denard: 732 yards for a single game (David Klingler, Houston vs. Arizona State, 1990); 5,976 for a season (B.J. Symons, Texas Tech, 2003); 16,910 for a career (Timmy Chang, Hawaii, 2000-2004).

Total Offense Per Play

As with total offense records, these will be tough for Denard to keep pace with, and his performances against Big Ten opponents have left him further behind the pace. Through Saturday, Denard has 3,407 yards of total offense in 412 plays, for an average of 8.3.

Here are the NCAA FBS records for a single game: 14.3 by Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996) in 37 plays and 9.9 by David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990) in 63 plays. Denard came pretty close to Martin in the Indiana game, where in 35 plays he averaged 14.1 yards per play (which is almost certainly a Michigan and quite likely a Big Ten record):

Denard Robinson

Attempts + Carries

Total Offense

Yards per Play

Connecticut

51

383

7.51

Notre Dame

68

502

7.38

Massachusetts

31

345

11.13

Bowling Green

9

189

21.00

Indiana

35

494

14.11

Michigan State

50

301

6.02

Iowa

36

201

5.58

Penn State

50

381

7.62

Illinois

39

367

9.41

Purdue

43

244

5.67

TOTAL

412

3,407

8.27

NCAA Records

Attempts + Carries

Total Offense

Yards per Play

Game: Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996)

37

529

14.30

Game: David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990)

63

625

9.92

Season: Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006)

645

5,915

9.17

Career: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-09)

970

8,439

8.70

As you can see in the table, for a single season (minimum 3,000 yards), the record is 9.2 by Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006). For a career (minimum 7,500 yards) it's 8.7 by Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-2009).

Passing Efficiency

Passing efficiency is a statistic that rewards quarterbacks for yards, touchdowns, and completions per attempt, and punishes them for interceptions per attempt. The NCAA formula, which differs from the NFL one, is:

Denard's 2010 passing efficiency is currently 157.7; his career efficiency (including last year) is 149.1, which would be a Michigan record if he keeps that pace. Here are Michigan's pass efficiency records:

Highest efficiency rating, career (min. 200 attempts): 148.1 (Elvis Grbac, 1989-1992) (Denard is at 149.1 for his career, good for 1st all-time and on pace for 3rd all-time in the Big Ten)

Bob Chappuis' Michigan single-season mark is also the Big Ten single-season record. Ricky Stanzi and Terrelle Pryor are challenging that record this year, with ratings of 167.2 and 166.4, respectively, good for 3rd and 5th all-time. The NCAA FBS pass efficiency record belongs to Colt Brennan of Hawaii, who reached 186.0 in 2006: out of Denard's reach.

Other Michigan Passing Records

At the end of 2009, here were some of the other Michigan passing records. Denard could break some of the completion percentage records (Tate broke one as well):

Other Michigan Rushing Records

At the end of 2009, here were the other relevant Michigan rushing records. On average yards per carry, he owns one of the single-game records Michigan tracks, but is surprisingly far from the other ones (not that that couldn't change in a hurry). The single-season and career records are within reach:

Also, Denard is one of 5 quarterbacks in NCAA history to record 5 consecutive 100-yard rushing games (the others are Ricky Dobbs of Navy in 2009, Joe Webb of Alabama-Birmingham in 2009, Brian Madden of Navy in 1999, and Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1995). No one has done it 6 times in a row.

Team Offense

Did you know that Michigan is averaging 521.8 yards per game in total offense, higher than any other team in Big Ten history? (Second place belongs to Penn State's 1994 team, which averaged 512.7 yards per game.) Even if you take out the 72 extra yards Michigan gained in the three overtimes against Illinois, Michigan is averaging 514.7 yards per game.

This year's team is on pace to demolish the old Michigan total offense record of 466.9, set in 1992, when Gary Moeller roamed the sidelines, barking orders to Elvis Grbac, Desmond Howard, and Tyrone Wheatley.

Big Ten All-Time Leaders

Year

YPG (Total Offense)

1. MICH (including overtime)

2010

521.8

1. MICH (regulation only)

2010

514.7

2. Penn State

1994

512.7

3. Northwestern

2005

500.3

4. Ohio State

1998

497.6

5. Michigan State

2005

497.3

6. Minnesota

2005

494.8

7. Minnesota

2003

494.6

8. Ohio State

1974

493.2

9. Ohio State

1996

490.4

10. Michigan State

1978

481.3

11. Ohio State

1995

478.6

Michigan All-Time Leaders (QB/WR/RB)

Year

YPG (Total Offense)

1. Robinson / Roundtree / Smith (regulation)

2010

514.7

2. Grbac / Howard / Wheatley

1992

466.9

3. Navarre / Edwards / Perry

2003

446.7

4. Henson / Terrell / Thomas

2000

446.1

5. Grbac / Howard / Vaughn

1990

432.5

In terms of scoring offense, Michigan is averaging 35.5 points per game in regulation (37.7 points per game including the overtime scoring), good for 9th all-time in Michigan history (7th if you count OT points). This is all the more remarkable given that our terrible placekicking and team defense give the offense poor field position and missed field goals.

Year

1902

1904

1901

1903

1947

1905

1976

1992

*2010

2003

PPG

58.5

56.7

50.5

47.1

39.4

38.1

36.0

35.9

35.5

35.4

* - Excludes points scored in overtime

The Fielding Yost "point-a-minute" teams averaged 50.5, 58.5, 47.1, 56.7, and 38.1 points per game from 1901 to 1905. Fritz Crisler's 1947 national championship team of Bob Chappuis and Bump Elliott, nicknamed the "Mad Magicians," averaged 39.4. (The official Michigan record book erroneously lists the 1947 average as second-highest in school history; it is missing the performances of 1901, 1903, 1904, and 1905.)

Dynamic offenses have been few and far between in the postwar era. The 1976 Bo Schembechler team, led by Rick Leach and Rob Lytle, scored 36.0 points per game, and owns the rushing season record with 345.3 yards per game. The aforementioned 1992 team averaged 35.9 points; and the 2003 team averaged 35.4.

Here are some other impressive stats:

Michigan is averaging 7.1 yards per play, which is most all-time in Michigan history (the existing record is 6.4 yards, in 1992 and 1947).

Michigan is averaging 266.3 rushing yards per game (inclusive of OT; 263.4 regulation-only). (The Big Ten record is 349.9 in 1974 by Ohio State; the Michigan record is 345.3 in 1976.)

Michigan is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, as high as any team in Michigan history (the current record is 5.9 per carry in 1976).

Michigan is averaging 255.5 passing yards per game (inclusive; 251.3 regulation-only), 3rd all-time in Michigan history. (The record is 270.8 in 2003.)

Michigan is averaging 23.9 first downs per game (inclusive; 23.6 regulation-only), tied for highest in Michigan history. (The current record is 23.9 in 2003.) Over 13 games, this would be the fifth-highest total in Big Ten history (6th using regulation numbers).

Miscellaneous Records

As most of you know, against Illinois, Roy Roundtree destroyed a 44-year-old Michigan single-game receiving record, by gaining 246 yards (on 9 catches with 2 TDs). The old record was set in 1966, when Jack Clancy gained 197 yards against Oregon State. (Roundtree's mark wouldn't even make the top ten all-time in the Big Ten: the Big Ten record is 301 by Chris Daniels of Purdue against MSU in 1999; the NCAA record is 405 by Troy Edwards of Louisiana Tech against Nebraska in 1998.)

Standard Disclaimers

Wins are more important than stats. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team. It is, instead, to pay tribute to Denard's exceptional individual achievement within the context of a (hopefully) successful team. With a few minor exceptions, Denard's stats don't come at the expense of the team: when he rushes for 250 yards or has a QB rating of 270, the team is usually doing well. If you object to this point of view, you don't have to read further.

Past performance is not a predictor of future results. To the degree I describe end-of-season projections for Denard, I do so simply, rather than Mathletically: (current total) * (12-game season) / (games played to date). Denard's numbers may come down against stronger defenses, but he played quite well against Iowa and Illinois, two statistically strong defenses, so we'll see.

Projections are for a 13-game season. Beginning in 2002, the NCAA revised its single-season and career records to include postseason games. Michigan, with its defeat of the Illini, is set to go to a bowl game this year.

The quarterback position has evolved significantly. The forward pass was only formally legalized in 1906. From the 1910s until the 1950s, the most common college football formation was Pop Warner's single-wing, in which the quarterback's role was primarily as a blocker, and most passes were thrown by a tailback or halfback. The idea of a quarterback as the primary passer began to take hold after World War II, when coaches such as Clark Shaughnessy at Chicago and Stanford and Paul Brown at Ohio State took advantage of a recently redesigned football that was easier to throw, and married the ancient T formation to the threat of longer passes downfield.

The record books are murky from 1869 to 1937. Something to keep in mind is that the record books don't actually go back that far in time. At the national level, official statistics have only been recorded since 1937: a mere 52 percent of college football's history. It's not clear how rigorously school, conference, and national collegiate records were kept before then. (College football has been around since 1869.) One has to assume that Fielding Yost's point-a-minute teams would have harbored some record-producing players, though the game was quite different then, as noted above. So, to be as precise as possible, we should describe all of these records as modern-era, postwar records.

Post-1978 records are for Division I-A only. Let me note that all the records here are for Division I-A (FBS), but do include all Division I records prior to the I-A / I-AA split in 1978. I don't really care about who did what in the other divisions, given the inferior level of competition. Personally, I would prefer to eliminate the non-automatically qualifying BCS conferences, but since the NCAA doesn't do that, I won't.

Post-1996 overtime and pre-1912 scoring rules skew historical comparisons. The NCAA introduced overtime to I-A football in 1996, and soon after determined that points and yards gained in overtime would count toward NCAA records. Given that teams and players did not have the benefit of overtime prior to 1996, I try wherever possible to exclude overtime stats (or at least give both sets of numbers). The modern convention of TDs worth 6 points (+1 PAT) and FGs worth 3 began in 1912. From 1869 to 1882, touchdowns, extra points, and field goals were all worth one point each. From 1882-1883, TDs were worth 2, PATs 4, and FGs 5; from 1884-1897, TDs 4, PATs 2, FGs 5; from 1898-1903, TDs 5, PATs 1, FGs 5; from 1904-1908, TDs 5, PATs 1, FGs 4; from 1901-1911, TDs 5, PATs 1, FGs 3. The two-point conversion was introduced in 1958. I currently don't have the breakdown of TDs, PATs, and FGs for the Yost teams; if anyone else does, I would be pleased to adjust those numbers accordingly so as to make apples-to-apples comparisons with modern teams. The rules of college football evolved rapidly from 1879 to 1930, making strict comparisons difficult. For example, the goal posts were moved from the goal line to the end line (10 yards back of the goal line) only in 1927, which has a huge impact on field goal kicking, and the width of the uprights has varied significantly over time.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to tf (Michigan rushing single-game record) and danieljpaul (Denard's season totals) for corrections. H/T to tubauberalles and enlightenedbum for tracking down the FBS single-game QB rushing record. Raoul and UM in VA persuaded me to post the total offense numbers, and pointed out Denard's ridiculous per-play stats, which I also added to the diary. Trebor pointed out that we should keep an eye on the impressive seasons of Taylor Martinez and Cam Newton. U of M in TX helped identify a few updating errors. Raoul also suggested putting in the team offense stats. Hillhaus pointed out that I should discuss the pre-1912 scoring conventions.

Well, that was fun. Hopefully this victory means that Michigan football has turned a corner, that communist football is here to stay, and that the counter-revolutionaries have been assimilated (or, if not, then deported to our luxurious gulag in Palo Alto).

Even though Denard didn't have his best game statistically, he helped the team win. And that win made us bowl eligible, allowing me to project his season totals over 13 games instead of 12, increasing the likely number of records he will break this year. Let's hope his concussion was mild, and that he is able to go out and play against Purdue.

(And when I say he didn't have his "best game", he still gained 367 yards of total offense: one yard short of the old Navarre record that Denard has already broken four times.)

A special shout-out today for Roy Roundtree, who, impressively, destroyed a 44-year-old Michigan single-game receiving record, by gaining 246 yards (on 9 catches with 2 TDs). The old record was set in 1966, when Jack Clancy gained 197 yards against Oregon State. (Roundtree's mark wouldn't even make the top ten all-time in the Big Ten: the Big Ten record is 301 by Chris Daniels of Purdue against MSU in 1999; the NCAA record is 405 by Troy Edwards of Louisiana Tech against Nebraska in 1998.)

As to the scoring explosion against Illinois: Overtime points are idiotic. Each team starts from the other's 25. There is simply no way that people should count overtime points towards scoring records, and I refuse to do so. It is simply not appropriate to compare college football records of the overtime era to pre-1996 ones (when overtime was brought to college football). For the purposes of single-game scoring records, I look at that Illinois game as a tennis match with a fifth-set tiebreaker: 46-45 (22-20).

I hope that official keepers of college football records change their minds and take that approach, in which separate records are kept for regulation and overtime. As of today, overtime points and other statistics are counted fully toward all NCAA records. This isn't fair to the great accomplishments of previous generations of college football athletes.

Prefatory Verbiage

Suggestions are welcome. If you have found an interesting statistic or record that you think I should add to this list, please put it in the comments section and I'll add it to the original post (and give you credit).

Review the disclaimers. Football has evolved considerably over its 141-year history, much more so than other major sports, and that is important to keep in mind when talking about all-time records. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team.

New This Week

New to this week's Almanack is a discussion of team offense records. Also, as noted above, I have now projected Denard's rushing and passing yards over 13 games instead of 12. I've also projected Cam Newton's stats over 14 games instead of 12; thanks to LSU's victory over Alabama, Auburn only has to win one of its two remaining games in order to play in the SEC championship game.

Week in Review: Denard Breaks a Jim Harbaugh Record

From a completion-percentage standpoint, Denard had another relatively poor day: only 50% (10 of 20). This is his second-lowest total; only last week's 47.8% was lower. Accuracy was an issue for him again, with several passes thrown behind receivers and two INTs. I'm assuming his shoulder continues to bother him.

The only thing is: those ten completions went for 305 yards and 3 TDs. That is an average of 30.5 yards per completion, a new Michigan record for a minimum of 10 completions. (The old record was held by Jim Harbaugh, who averaged 30.0 yards per completion against Indiana in 1986.)

The Illini rush defense did well against Denard, limiting him to only 62 yards rushing on 19 attempts: a career-worst 3.26 yards per carry (his previous low was 4.10 against MSU).

Of the other prominant dual-threat QBs, Cam Newton ran for 24 yards and threw for 317 against I-AA Chattanooga; Colin Kaepernick ran for 22 and threw for 320 against Idaho; and Taylor Martinez didn't play in Nebraska's OT thriller against Iowa State due to an ankle sprain. LaMichael James, Denard's challenger for the NCAA rushing title, gained 121 yards on 26 carries in a rout against Washington.

With the Big Ten single-season QB rushing mark in his rear-view mirror, Denard is only 145 yards shy of Beau Morgan's NCAA mark of 1,494, set in 1996. If he is healthy for Purdue, it certainly wouldn't be surprising to see him break that record on Saturday. If he gains 151 yards, he will become the first major-college player in history to both rush and pass for 1,500 yards in a single season.

Also, suddenly, after the offensive explosion against Illinois, Denard finds himself just 77 yards short of Michigan's all time single-season record for total offense: 3,240 yards, set by John Navarre in 2003. While there's always the off chance that Denard doesn't run for 145 yards against Purdue, if he plays, he's going to break 77 yards of total offense.

Despite his relatively poor numbers against Illinois, Denard maintained possession of the Michigan career yards-per-carry record with a minimum of 200 attempts, with 6.8 YPC on 252 carries. The previous record had been held by 6.3 YPC by Jon Vaughn (from 1989-1990). Denard also owns Michigan's single-season YPC record at 7.4; the previous mark had been Tyrone Wheatley's at 7.3 (in 1992). In addition, having crossed the threshold of 200 career pass attempts against Illinois, Denard now owns the Michigan career pass-efficiency record with a minimum of 200 attempts, with 151.0 on 217 attempts. The previous record was 148.1 by Elvis Grbac (from 1989-1992), and Elvis had the benefit of a Heisman Trophy-winning receiver. Denard could theoretically fall below these thresholds in the future.

Quarterbacks as NCAA Rushing Champions

A quarterback has never led the NCAA FBS in rushing yards over a single season. In 1937, the first year in which the NCAA kept official football statistics, Colorado halfback Byron "Whizzer" White led the nation in rushing with 1,121 yards, along with 475 passing yards. (If that wasn't enough, White also went to Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship, played in the NFL for Pittsburgh and Detroit, served in World War II during which he was awarded two Bronze Stars, came back and graduated from Yale Law School, and was appointed by John F. Kennedy to the Supreme Court of the United States.)

This year, Denard could become the first quarterback in history to finish the season as the NCAA rushing champion (by yards gained). He currently has gained 1,349 yards on the ground. LaMichael James of Oregon is 18 yards behind having played one less game.

On a yards-per-game basis, James is in first place with 166.4 (Denard is second with 149.9). Personally, I find the YPG statistic to be arbitrary: should Denard be punished because the Bowling Green game was a rout, and LaMichael James be rewarded because he was suspended for one game for pleading guilty to harrassing his ex-girlfriend? FWIW, on a yards-per-carry basis, Denard is ahead of James.

Note that Cam Newton will likely play in the SEC championship game, and thereby have an extra game to pad his stats. Newton, however, is 203 yards behind Denard, despite the extra tilt. Here are the top 5 rushers in the country, sorted by yards gained:

Player

Team

Carries

Yards

YPC

Games

YPG

TD

Denard Robinson

MICH

183

1,349

7.37

9

149.9

12

LaMichael James

Oregon

196

1,331

6.79

*8

166.4

17

Kendall Hunter

Oklahoma St.

203

1,240

6.11

9

137.8

14

Cameron Newton

Auburn

176

1,146

6.51

10

114.6

15

Daniel Thomas

Kansas St.

214

1,102

5.15

9

122.4

12

* - LaMichael James was suspended for Oregon's first game against
New Mexico for pleading guilty to a misdemeanor.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Game

Denard currently holds the Michigan and Big Ten records for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game: 258 vs. Notre Dame. The NCAA FBS record is 308, on 22 attempts, by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, against Fresno State, on Oct. 6, 1990.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Season

Denard currently has 1,349 rushing yards in 8 games. This projects to 1,949 over a 13-game schedule. He owns the Big Ten record, as described above, and has destroyed the previous Michigan record for QB rushing yards in a season: 674 by Steve Smith in 1981.

Before you get too overwhelmed by all the numbers in this diary, just stop and think about that for a minute. Denard Robinson, your starting Michigan quarterback, playing before your very eyes, has more than doubled a Michigan football record, with four games to go. And not just any record, but one that has stood for three decades. Even if you account for the fact that we're playing a very different style of football now—it's just incredible.

The NCAA FBS record is 1,494 by Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1996. This record is easily within reach. Denard only has to average 37 rushing yards a game over the rest of the regular season to break the NCAA FBS record.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Career

There's no point in projecting Denard's career rushing totals, since we don't even know how he'll do this year (or if his knee will hold up), nor if he will stay for his senior season. But here are the records:

Michigan's career record is held by Rick Leach (1975-1978) at 2,176 yards: a record Denard will break this year, at his current pace. Denard needs to average 119rushing yards a game to take this title. (Guys like Leach and Steve Smith must salivate at what they could have done in the offense of Comrade Rodriguez.) The Big Ten record is Antwaan Randel El's (1998-2001) at 3,895 yards. The NCAA FBS record is held by Pat White (2005-2008) at 4,480 yards.

The NCAA FBS per-game career record is 109.1 yards by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, achieved from 1988-1990 over 25 games.

Rushing Records (At Any Position)

For a single game, the Michigan record is 347 by Ron Johnson in 1968 against Wisconsin; the Big Ten record is 377 by Anthony Thompson of Indiana in 1989 against Wisconsin; the NCAA FBS record is 406 by LaDainian Tomlinson of TCU in 1999 against UTEP.

For a single season, the Michigan record is 1,818 yards (Tshimanga Biakabutuka, 1995); the Big Ten record is 2,087 yards (Larry Johnson, Penn St., 2002); the NCAA FBS record is 2,628 yards (Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988). Denard can break Touchdown Tim's Michigan record by averaging 117 yards per game over the rest of the season.

That Barry Sanders record will be around for a while, but remember that Denard is on pace for 1,949 with a 13-game schedule; if he is able to maintain his current pace, and gets to play in a bowl game, Larry Johnson's Big Ten record would not be out of reach.

For a career, the Michigan record is held by Mike Hart (5,040 yards, 2004-2007); the Big Ten record is held by Ron Dayne (7,125 yards, 1996-1999); the NCAA FBS record is also held by Ron Dayne, but they list it as 6,397 yards. (Herschel Walker of Georgia holds the record for a 3-year career at 5,259 yards, set from 1980-1982.)

The 200/200 Club

Much has been made of the fact that Denard is the only player in FBS history to gain 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing twice in regular-season games. To me this is a silly distinction—who cares if it was done in the regular season or a bowl game? If anything, Vince Young's performance in the 2005 Rose Bowl against USC is even more remarkable, given that that USC team is considered one of the most dominant teams of the modern era. Wake me up when Denard gets his third 200/200 game. (He did go for 191/190 against Penn State.)

Anyway, here are the 200/200 games listed in the NCAA record book, sorted by total offense. You'll note that Denard is the only member of the 240/240 club, and Marques Tuiasosopo is the only member of the 200/300 club.

Player

Team (Opponent)

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Marques Tuiasosopo

Washington (Stanford)

1999

207

302

509

Vince Young

Texas (Oklahoma St.)

2005

267

239

506

Denard Robinson

MICH (Notre Dame)

2010

258

244

502

Denard Robinson

MICH (Indiana)

2010

217

277

494

Reds Bagnell

Penn (Dartmouth)

1950

214

276

490

Brad Smith

Missouri (Nebraska)

2005

246

234

480

Brian Mitchell

La.-Lafayette (Colo. St.)

1987

271

205

476

Antwaan Randle-El

Indiana (Minnesota)

2000

210

263

473

Vince Young

Texas (USCRose Bowl)

2005

200

267

467

Patrick White

W. Va. (Pittsburgh)

2006

220

204

424

Steve Gage

Tulsa (New Mexico)

1986

212

209

421

The 1000/1000 Club

There are 30 quarterbacks (and one halfback, Johnny Bright of Drake) in FBS who have run and thrown for 1000 yards in the same season. Of these, none have both run and passed for 1500 yards (the rushing record for QBs is 1,223).

Seven quarterbacks have achieved this milestone multiple times: Brad Smith (thrice), Colin Kaepernick (twice and counting), Vince Young (twice), Pat White (twice), Beau Morgan (twice), Joe Webb (twice), and Joshua Cribbs (twice). Only two people have joined the 1000/1000 club as freshmen: Brad Smith of Missouri, and Joshua Cribbs of Kent State. Air Force leads the overall list with five different QBs, in six different seasons, in the 1000/1000 club. (It is interesting that an instrument of American capitalist imperialism, the U.S. Air Force Academy, is the premier exponent of communist football.)

As noted above, Denard joined the 1000/1000 club on his first drive against Iowa. If he stays healthy, he should easily become the first member of the 1500/1500 club. The list below of 1000/1000 members is sorted this list by rushing yards.

I've also added 2010 season totals for Cam Newton, Taylor Martinez, and Colin Kaepernick, three dual-threat quarterbacks who are likely to surpass 1000/1000 this year (Kaepernick already did so in 2008 and 2009).

Player

Team

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Dilithium (on pace for)

MICH

2010

1,949

2,620

4,569

Newton (on pace for)

Auburn

2010

1,604

2,646

4,250

Beau Morgan

Air Force

1996

1,494

1,210

2,704

Joe Webb

UAB

2009

1,427

2,229

3,726

Jammal Lord

Nebraska

2002

1,412

1,362

2,774

Brad Smith

Missouri

2003

1,406

1,977

3,383

Chris McCoy

Navy

1997

1,370

1,203

2,573

Denard Robinson

MICH

2010

1,349

1,814

3,163

Patrick White

W. Virginia

2007

1,335

1,724

3,059

Brian Mitchell

La.-Lafayette

1989

1,311

1,966

3,277

Brad Smith

Missouri

2005

1,301

2,304

3,605

Dee Dowis

Air Force

1989

1,286

1,285

2,571

Beau Morgan

Air Force

1995

1,285

1,165

2,450

Antwaan Randle El*

Indiana

2000

1,270

1,783

3,053

Johnny Bright (HB)

Drake

1950

1,232

1,168

2,400

Chance Herridge

Air Force

2002

1,229

1,062

2,291

Patrick White

W. Virginia

2006

1,219

1,655

2,874

Keith Boyea

Air Force

2001

1,216

1,253

2,469

Ricky Dobbs

Navy

2009

1,203

1,031

2,234

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2009

1,183

2,052

3,235

Dwight Dasher

Middle Tenn.

2009

1,154

2,789

3,943

Cameron Newton

Auburn

2010

1,146

1,890

3,036

Michael Desormeaux

La.-Lafayette

2007

1,141

1,405

2,546

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2008

1,130

2,849

3,979

Dan LeFevour

Central Mich.

2007

1,122

3,652

4,774

Eric Crouch

Nebraska

2001

1,115

1,510

2,625

Craig Candeto

Navy

2003

1,112

1,140

2,252

Scott Frost

Nebraska

1997

1,095

1,237

2,332

Michael Carter

Hawaii

1991

1,092

1,172

2,264

Vince Young

Texas

2004

1,079

1,849

2,928

Joshua Cribbs

Kent State

2002

1,057

1,014

2,071

Vince Young

Texas

2005

1,050

3,036

4,086

Josh Nesbitt

Ga. Tech

2009

1,037

1,701

2,738

Bart Weiss

Air Force

1985

1,032

1,449

2,481

Ell Roberson

Kansas St.

2002

1,032

1,580

2,612

Brad Smith (Fr.)

Missouri

2002

1,029

2,333

3,362

Joe Webb

UAB

2008

1,021

2,367

3,388

Joshua Cribbs (Fr.)

Kent State

2001

1,019

1,516

2,535

Reggie Collier

So. Miss.

1981

1,005

1,004

2,009

Darian Hagan

Colorado

1989

1,004

1,002

2,006

Woodrow Dantzler

Clemson

2001

1,004

2,360

3,364

Taylor Martinez

Nebraska

2010

886

1,161

2,047

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2010

793

1,990

2,783

* Previous Big Ten record for rushing yards by a quarterback

Total Offense

Denard already owns the Michigan single-game total offense record (502 yards against Notre Dame). In fact, Denard has broken the old Michigan single-game total offense record four times this year, with games of 502, 494, 383, and 381 yards. (The previous record was 368 by John Navarre against Iowa in 2003.) Against Illinois, Denard almost broke this record again, gaining 367: giving him five of the six highest totals in Michigan history.

Player

Opponent

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Denard Robinson

Notre Dame

2010

258

244

502

Denard Robinson

Indiana

2010

217

277

494

Denard Robinson

Connecticut

2010

197

186

383

Denard Robinson

Penn State

2010

191

190

381

John Navarre

Iowa

2003

-21

389

368

Denard Robinson

Illinois

2010

62

305

367

Denard is also on pace to annihilate John Navarre's single-season total offense record of 3,240 in 2003 (Denard projects to an astounding 4,569 yards over 13 games).

The Big Ten single-game total offense record is 585 yards by Dave Wilson of Illinois, vs. Ohio State in 1980. The Big Ten single-season total offense record is 4,189 yards by Drew Brees of Purdue in 2000, which is well within Denard's reach. Denard has to average 257 yards of total offense in his next four games to pass Brees; he is currently averaging 351.

The NCAA total offense records are dominated by prolific passers. Those records appear to be unattainable by Denard: 732 yards for a single game (David Klingler, Houston vs. Arizona State, 1990); 5,976 for a season (B.J. Symons, Texas Tech, 2003); 16,910 for a career (Timmy Chang, Hawaii, 2000-2004).

Total Offense Per Play

As with total offense records, these will be tough for Denard to keep pace with, but he is right up there at the moment. Through Saturday, Denard has 3,163 yards of total offense in 369 plays, for an average of 8.6.

Here are the NCAA FBS records for a single game: 14.3 by Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996) in 37 plays and 9.9 by David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990) in 63 plays. Denard came pretty close to Martin in the Indiana game, where in 35 plays he averaged 14.1 yards per play (which is almost certainly a Michigan and quite likely a Big Ten record):

Denard Robinson

Attempts + Carries

Total Offense

Yards per Play

Connecticut

51

383

7.51

Notre Dame

68

502

7.38

Massachusetts

31

345

11.13

Bowling Green

9

189

21.00

Indiana

35

494

14.11

Michigan State

50

301

6.02

Iowa

36

201

5.58

Penn State

50

381

7.62

Illinois

39

367

9.41

TOTAL

369

3,163

8.57

NCAA Records

Attempts + Carries

Total Offense

Yards per Play

Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996)

37

529

14.30

David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990)

63

625

9.92

Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006 season)

645

5,915

9.17

Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-09 career)

970

8,439

8.70

As you can see in the table, for a single season (minimum 3,000 yards), the record is 9.2 by Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006). For a career (minimum 7,500 yards) it's 8.7 by Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-2009).

Passing Efficiency

Passing efficiency is a statistic that rewards quarterbacks for yards, touchdowns, and completions per attempt, and punishes them for interceptions per attempt. The NCAA formula, which differs from the NFL one, is:

Denard's 2010 passing efficiency is currently 160.9; his career efficiency (including last year) is 151.0, which would be a Michigan record if he keeps that pace. Here are Michigan's pass efficiency records:

Highest efficiency rating, career (min. 200 attempts): 148.1 (Elvis Grbac, 1989-1992) (Denard is at 151.0 for his career after 217 attempts, on pace for 1st all-time)

Bob Chappuis' Michigan single-season mark is also the Big Ten single-season record. The NCAA FBS pass efficiency record belongs to Colt Brennan of Hawaii, who reached 186.0 in 2006: likely out of reach.

Other Michigan Passing Records

At the end of 2009, here were some of the other Michigan passing records. Denard could break some of the completion percentage records (Tate broke one as well):

Other Michigan Rushing Records

At the end of 2009, here were the other relevant Michigan rushing records. On average yards per carry, he owns one of the single-game records Michigan tracks, but is surprisingly far from the other ones (not that that couldn't change in a hurry). The single-season and career records are within reach:

Also, Denard is one of 5 players in NCAA history to record 5 consecutive 100-yard rushing games. No one has done it 6 times in a row.

Team Offense

Did you know that Michigan is averaging 535.9 yards per game in total offense, higher than any other team in Big Ten history? (Second place belongs to Penn State's 1994 team, which averaged 512.7 yards per game.) Even if you take out the 72 extra yards Michigan gained in the three overtimes against Illinois, Michigan is averaging 528.0 yards per game.

This year's team is on pace to demolish the old Michigan total offense record of 466.9, set in 1992, when Gary Moeller roamed the sidelines, barking orders to Elvis Grbac, Desmond Howard, and Tyrone Wheatley.

Big Ten All-Time Leaders

Year

YPG (Total Offense)

1. MICH (including overtime)

2010

535.9

1. MICH (regulation only)

2010

528.0

2. Penn State

1994

512.7

3. Northwestern

2005

500.3

4. Ohio State

1998

497.6

5. Michigan State

2005

497.3

6. Minnesota

2005

494.8

7. Minnesota

2003

494.6

8. Ohio State

1974

493.2

9. Ohio State

1996

490.4

10. Michigan State

1978

481.3

11. Ohio State

1995

478.6

Michigan All-Time Leaders (QB/WR/RB)

Year

YPG (Total Offense)

1. Robinson / Roundtree / Smith

2010

528.0

2. Grbac / Howard / Wheatley

1992

466.9

3. Navarre / Edwards / Perry

2003

446.7

4. Henson / Terrell / Thomas

2000

446.1

5. Grbac / Howard / Vaughn

1990

432.5

In terms of scoring offense, Michigan is averaging 36.2 points per game in regulation (38.7 points per game including the overtime scoring), good for 7th all-time in Michigan history (6th including OT), and the highest Michigan total in 63 years. This is all the more remarkable given that our terrible placekicking and team defense give the offense poor field position and missed field goals.

Year

1902

1904

1901

1903

1947

1905

*2010

1976

1992

2003

PPG

58.5

56.7

50.5

47.1

39.4

38.1

36.2

36.0

35.9

35.4

* - Excludes points scored in overtime

The Fielding Yost "point-a-minute" teams averaged 50.5, 58.5, 47.1, 56.7, and 38.1 points per game from 1901 to 1905. Fritz Crisler's 1947 national championship team of Bob Chappuis and Bump Elliott, nicknamed the "Mad Magicians," averaged 39.4. (The official Michigan record book erroneously lists the 1947 average as second-highest in school history; it is missing the performances of 1901, 1903, 1904, and 1905.)

Dynamic offenses have been few and far between in the postwar era. The 1976 Bo Schembechler team, led by Rick Leach and Rob Lytle, scored 36.0 points per game, and owns the rushing season record with 345.3 yards per game. The aforementioned 1992 team averaged 35.9 points; and the 2003 team averaged 35.4.

Here are some other impressive stats:

Michigan is averaging 7.4 yards per play, which is most all-time in Michigan history (the existing record is 6.4 yards, in 1992 and 1947).

Michigan is averaging 273.4 rushing yards per game (inclusive of OT; 270.22 regulation-only), 7th all-time (9th regulation-only) in Big Ten history and 3rd all-time in Michigan history. (The Big Ten record is 349.9 in 1974 by Ohio State; the Michigan record is 345.3 in 1976.)

Michigan is averaging 6.2 yards per carry, higher than any other Michigan team in history (the current record is 5.9 per carry in 1976).

Michigan is averaging 266.3 passing yards per game (inclusive; 261.7 regulation-only), 2nd all-time in Michigan history. (The record is 270.8 in 2003.)

Michigan is averaging 24.2 first downs per game (inclusive; 23.9 regulation-only), highest in Michigan history. (The current record is 23.9 in 2003.) Over 13 games, this would be the third-highest total in Big Ten history (6th using regulation numbers).

Standard Disclaimers

Wins are more important than stats. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team. It is, instead, to pay tribute to Denard's exceptional individual achievement within the context of a (hopefully) successful team. With a few minor exceptions, Denard's stats don't come at the expense of the team: when he rushes for 250 yards or has a QB rating of 270, the team is usually doing well. If you object to this point of view, you don't have to read further.

Past performance is not a predictor of future results. To the degree I describe end-of-season projections for Denard, I do so simply, rather than Mathletically: (current total) * (12-game season) / (games played to date). Denard's numbers may come down against stronger defenses, but he played quite well against Iowa and Illinois, two statistically strong defenses, so we'll see.

Projections are for a 13-game season. Beginning in 2002, the NCAA revised its single-season and career records to include postseason games. Michigan, with its defeat of the Illini, is set to go to a bowl game this year.

The quarterback position has evolved significantly. The forward pass was only formally legalized in 1906. From the 1910s until the 1950s, the most common college football formation was Pop Warner's single-wing, in which the quarterback's role was primarily as a blocker, and most passes were thrown by a tailback or halfback. The idea of a quarterback as the primary passer began to take hold after World War II, when coaches such as Clark Shaughnessy at Chicago and Stanford and Paul Brown at Ohio State took advantage of a recently redesigned football that was easier to throw, and married the ancient T formation to the threat of longer passes downfield.

The record books are murky from 1869 to 1937. Something to keep in mind is that the record books don't actually go back that far in time. At the national level, official statistics have only been recorded since 1937: a mere 52 percent of college football's history. It's not clear how rigorously school, conference, and national collegiate records were kept before then. (College football has been around since 1869.) One has to assume that Fielding Yost's point-a-minute teams would have harbored some record-producing players, though the game was quite different then, as noted above. So, to be as precise as possible, we should describe all of these records as modern-era, postwar records.

Post-1978 records are for Division I-A only. Let me note that all the records here are for Division I-A (FBS), but do include all Division I records prior to the I-A / I-AA split in 1978. I don't really care about who did what in the other divisions, given the inferior level of competition. Personally, I would prefer to eliminate the non-automatically qualifying BCS conferences, but since the NCAA doesn't do that, I won't.

Post-1996 overtime and pre-1912 scoring rules skew historical comparisons. The NCAA introduced overtime to I-A football in 1996, and soon after determined that points and yards gained in overtime would count toward NCAA records. Given that teams and players did not have the benefit of overtime prior to 1996, I try wherever possible to exclude overtime stats (or at least give both sets of numbers). The modern convention of TDs worth 6 points (+1 PAT) and FGs worth 3 began in 1912. From 1869 to 1882, touchdowns, extra points, and field goals were all worth one point each. From 1882-1883, TDs were worth 2, PATs 4, and FGs 5; from 1884-1897, TDs 4, PATs 2, FGs 5; from 1898-1903, TDs 5, PATs 1, FGs 5; from 1904-1908, TDs 5, PATs 1, FGs 4; from 1901-1911, TDs 5, PATs 1, FGs 3. The two-point conversion was introduced in 1958. I currently don't have the breakdown of TDs, PATs, and FGs for the Yost teams; if anyone else does, I would be pleased to adjust those numbers accordingly so as to make apples-to-apples comparisons with modern teams. The rules of college football evolved rapidly from 1879 to 1930, making strict comparisons difficult. For example, the goal posts were moved from the goal line to the end line (10 yards back of the goal line) only in 1927, which has a huge impact on field goal kicking, and the width of the uprights has varied significantly over time.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to tf (Michigan rushing single-game record) and danieljpaul (Denard's season totals) for corrections. H/T to tubauberalles and enlightenedbum for tracking down the FBS single-game QB rushing record. Raoul and UM in VA persuaded me to post the total offense numbers, and pointed out Denard's ridiculous per-play stats, which I also added to the diary. Trebor pointed out that we should keep an eye on the impressive seasons of Taylor Martinez and Cam Newton. U of M in TX helped identify a few updating errors. Raoul also suggested putting in the team offense stats. Hillhaus pointed out that I should discuss the pre-1912 scoring conventions.

As you know, I diarize weekly on the subject of Denard Robinson's record-setting season. At the suggestion of Comrade Raoul, I thought I would add some research on some of the team offense records that this year's Wolverines are chasing, especially given that some of our fellow MGoProletarians are arguing that Michigan's offense is "inconsistent."

Did you know that Michigan is averaging 518.4 yards per game in total offense, higher than any other team in Big Ten history? (Second place belongs to Penn State's 1994 team, which averaged 512.7 yards per game.) This year's team is on pace to demolish the old Michigan total offense record of 466.9, set in 1992, when Gary Moeller roamed the sidelines, barking orders to Elvis Grbac, Desmond Howard, and Tyrone Wheatley.

Big Ten All-Time Leaders

Year

YPG (Total Offense)

1. MICH

2010

518.4

2. Penn State

1994

512.7

3. Northwestern

2005

500.3

4. Ohio State

1998

497.6

5. Michigan State

2005

497.3

6. Minnesota

2005

494.8

7. Minnesota

2003

494.6

8. Ohio State

1974

493.2

9. Ohio State

1996

490.4

10. Michigan State

1978

481.3

11. Ohio State

1995

478.6

Michigan All-Time Leaders (QB/WR/RB)

Year

YPG (Total Offense)

1. Robinson / Roundtree / Smith

2010

518.4

2. Grbac / Howard / Wheatley

1992

466.9

3. Navarre / Edwards / Perry

2003

446.7

4. Henson / Terrell / Thomas

2000

446.1

5. Grbac / Howard / Vaughn

1990

432.5

Here are some other impressive stats:

Michigan is averaging 7.4 yards per play, which is most all-time in Michigan history (the existing record is 6.4 yards, in 1992 and 1947).

Michigan is averaging 35.1 points per game, good for 10th all-time in Michigan history, and the fourth-highest Michigan total in 63 years.

Michigan is averaging 275.5 rushing yards per game, 6th all-time in Big Ten history and 3rd all-time in Michigan history. (The Big Ten record is 349.9 in 1974 by Ohio State; the Michigan record is 345.3 in 1976.)

Michigan is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, higher than any other Michigan team in history (the current record is 5.9 per carry in 1976).

Michigan is averaging 246.1 passing yards per game, 3rd all-time in Michigan history. (The record is 270.8 in 2003.)

Michigan is averaging 23.1 first downs per game, second-highest in Michigan history. (The record is 23.9 in 2003.)

None of this is to excuse the performance on the defensive side of the ball -- but merely to remind people that our offense as a unit is one of the best Michigan has ever fielded.

As noted above, this year's team is averaging 35.1 points per game, one of Michigan's best in recent memory. But the Fielding Yost "point-a-minute" teams averaged 50.5, 58.5, 47.1, 56.7, and 38.1 points per game from 1901 to 1905. Fritz Crisler's 1947 national championship team of Bob Chappuis and Bump Elliott, nicknamed the "Mad Magicians," averaged 39.4.

Dynamic offenses have been few and far between in the postwar era. The 1976 Bo Schembechler team, led by Rick Leach and Rob Lytle, scored 36.0 points per game, and owns the rushing season record with 345.3 yards per game. The aforementioned 1992 team averaged 35.9 points; and the 2003 team averaged 35.4.

The difference between the Rodriguez offense and the previous two is that for Carr and Moeller, an all-time offense came around once or twice a decade, when there was a unique confluence of talent at every position. If Rodriguez is allowed to stay on, there is every reason to believe that this offense will get even better next year and the year after.

By all means, fix the defense, using whatever means necessary. But let's not send our offense back into the Dust Age. The Hegelian dialectic tells us that only Spread and Shred can lead us to a workers' paradise.

When I started the Almanack, Michigan was 5-0 and coming off of a tremendous offensive performance against Indiana. We were all feeling like the team was on the right track, even if some losses were inevitable. After three losses, especially the last one, we're in a different mood. Believe me, it's no fun making happy talk about Denard's stats after a loss, this one in particular.

But with all of the negativity on this board right now, I feel almost obligated to press ahead. On Saturday, Denard played well, despite not being 100%. He set a Big Ten record for single-season rushing yards by a quarterback -- with four games left in the season. This is a remarkable achievement, one which even more remarkably wasn't in any of the press accounts of the game.

Comrade Lenin once said, "if you want to make an omelet, you must be willing to break a few eggs." I think we can all agree that we have broken the defense's eggs. But before you fire up your Molotov cocktails and blow up Schembechler Hall, I just hope you stop to enjoy the beautiful offensive omelet right in front of us.

Prefatory Verbiage

Suggestions are welcome. If you have found an interesting statistic or record that you think I should add to this list, please put it in the comments section and I'll add it to the original post (and give you credit).

Review the disclaimers. Football has evolved considerably over its 141-year history, much more so than other major sports, and that is important to keep in mind when talking about all-time records. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team.

New This Week

I didn't add any new features to the Almanack this week.

Week in Review: Denard Doesn't Play Defense

Denard nearly had another 200/200 game, rushing for 191 yards and 3 TDs, and passing for 190 yards on 23 attempts (1 TD, no INTs). The main downer in Denard's performance was his completion percentage, which was a season-low 48%. Clearly, his shoulder is still bothering him.

Of the other prominant dual-threat QBs, Cam Newton ran for 45 yards on 11 carries (no TDs), and made 18 of 24 passes for 209 yards and 2 TDs. Colin Kaepernick ran for 102 yards on 8 carries and 1 TD, and threw for 190 yards (10/15, 2 TD, 0 INT). Taylor Martinez ran for 16 yards on 12 attempts, and threw for 115 (6/9, 1 TD, 0 INT). All of those players won their games.

Record of the Week: Big Ten QB Rushing Yards, Single-Season

I am going to mention this one again because it is astounding: Denard last week broke the Big Ten single-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback. The previous record was held by Antwaan Randle El of Indiana, who gained 1,270 yards in the year 2000.

Denard is 207 yards away from the NCAA record, set by Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1996. While it's not inconceivable that he could break that record next week, Purdue is the most likely setting.

Against Penn State, Denard maintained possession of the Michigan career yards-per-carry record with a minimum of 200 attempts, with 7.0 YPC on 233 carries. The previous record had been held by 6.3 YPC by Jon Vaughn (from 1989-1990). Denard also owns Michigan's single-season YPC record at 7.9; the previous mark had been Tyrone Wheatley's at 7.3 (in 1992). Denard could theoretically fall below these thresholds in the future.

Quarterbacks as NCAA Rushing Champions

The quarterback position has evolved significantly over the course of football history. The forward pass was only formally legalized in 1906. From the 1910s until the 1950s, the most common college football formation was Pop Warner's single-wing, in which the quarterback's role was primarily as a blocker, and most passes were thrown by a tailback or halfback. The idea of a quarterback as the primary passer began to take hold after World War II, when coaches such as Clark Shaughnessy at Chicago and Stanford and Paul Brown at Ohio State took advantage of a recently redesigned football that was easier to throw, and married the ancient T formation to the threat of longer passes downfield.

Having said that, a quarterback has never led the NCAA FBS in rushing yards over a single season. In 1937, the first year in which the NCAA kept official football statistics, Colorado halfback Byron "Whizzer" White led the nation in rushing with 1,121 yards, along with 475 passing yards. (If that wasn't enough, White also went to Oxford on a Rhodes Scholarship, played in the NFL for Pittsburgh and Detroit, served in World War II during which he was awarded two Bronze Stars, came back and graduated from Yale Law School, and was appointed by John F. Kennedy to the Supreme Court of the United States.)

This year, Denard is poised to become the first quarterback in history to finish the season as the NCAA rushing champion (by yards gained). He currently has gained 1,287 yards on the ground. On a yards-per-game basis, LaMichael James of Oregon is in first place with 172.9 (Denard is second with 160.9). Personally, I find the YPG statistic to be arbitrary: should Denard be punished because the Bowling Green game was a rout, and LaMichael James be rewarded because he was suspended for one game for pleading guilty to harrassing his ex-girlfriend?

The November 26 Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn will have significant implications for the rushing standings. If Auburn wins that game and ends up atop the SEC West, Cam Newton will play in the SEC championship game, and thereby have an extra game to pad his stats. Here are the top 10 rushers in the country, sorted by yards gained:

Player

Team

Carries

Yards

YPC

Games

YPG

TD

Denard Robinson

MICH

164

1,287

7.85

8

160.9

12

LaMichael James*

Oregon

170

1,210

7.12

7

172.9

14

Kendall Hunter

Oklahoma St.

189

1,174

6.21

8

146.8

12

Cameron Newton

Auburn

170

1,122

6.60

9

124.7

14

Bilal Powell

Louisville

168

1,067

6.68

8

140.3

9

Chad Spann

No. Illinois

182

1,000

5.49

9

111.1

12

Daniel Thomas

Kansas St.

196

996

5.08

8

124.5

10

Jordan Todman

Connecticut

174

954

5.48

8

119.3

9

Ed Wesley

TCU

138

938

6.80

9

104.2

10

Bobby Rainey

W. Kentucky

198

928

6.63

7

132.6

11

* - LaMichael James was suspended for Oregon's first game against New Mexico for pleading guilty to a misdemeanor.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Game

Denard currently holds the Michigan and Big Ten records for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game: 258 vs. Notre Dame. The NCAA FBS record is 308, on 22 attempts, by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, against Fresno State, on Oct. 6, 1990.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Single-Season

Denard currently has 1,287 rushing yards in 8 games. This projects to 1,931 over a 12-game schedule. He owns the Big Ten record, as described above, and has destroyed the previous Michigan record for QB rushing yards in a season: 674 by Steve Smith in 1981.

Before you get too overwhelmed by all the numbers in this diary, just stop and think about that for a minute. Denard Robinson, your starting Michigan quarterback, playing before your very eyes, is on pace to more than double a Michigan football record. And not just any record, but one that has stood for three decades. Even if you account for the fact that we're playing a very different style of football now—it's just incredible.

The NCAA FBS record is 1,494 by Beau Morgan of Air Force in 1996. This record is easily within reach. Denard only has to average 52 rushing yards a game over the rest of the regular season to break the NCAA FBS record.

Rushing Yards by a QB, Career

There's no point in projecting Denard's career rushing totals, since we don't even know how he'll do this year (or if his knee will hold up), nor if he will stay for his senior season. But here are the records:

Michigan's career record is held by Rick Leach (1975-1978) at 2,176 yards: a record Denard will break this year, at his current pace. Denard needs to average 133 rushing yards a game to take this title. (Guys like Leach and Steve Smith must salivate at what they could have done in the offense of Comrade Rodriguez.) The Big Ten record is Antwaan Randel El's (1998-2001) at 3,895 yards. The NCAA FBS record is held by Pat White (2005-2008) at 4,480 yards.

The NCAA FBS per-game career record is 109.1 yards by Stacey Robinson of Northern Illinois, achieved from 1988-1990 over 25 games.

Rushing Records (At Any Position)

For a single game, the Michigan record is 347 by Ron Johnson in 1968 against Wisconsin; the Big Ten record is 377 by Anthony Thompson of Indiana in 1989 against Wisconsin; the NCAA FBS record is 406 by LaDainian Tomlinson of TCU in 1999 against UTEP.

For a single season, the Michigan record is 1,818 yards (Tshimanga Biakabutuka, 1995); the Big Ten record is 2,087 yards (Larry Johnson, Penn St., 2002); the NCAA FBS record is 2,628 yards (Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988). Denard can break Touchdown Tim's Michigan record by averaging 133 yards per game over the rest of the season.

That Barry Sanders record will be around for a while, but remember that Denard is on pace for 1,931 with a 12-game schedule; if he is able to maintain his current pace, and gets to play in a bowl game, Larry Johnson's Big Ten record would not be out of reach.

For a career, the Michigan record is held by Mike Hart (5,040 yards, 2004-2007); the Big Ten record is held by Ron Dayne (7,125 yards, 1996-1999); the NCAA FBS record is also held by Ron Dayne, but they list it as 6,397 yards. (Herschel Walker of Georgia holds the record for a 3-year career at 5,259 yards, set from 1980-1982.)

The 200/200 Club

Much has been made of the fact that Denard is the only player in FBS history to gain 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing twice in regular-season games. To me this is a silly distinction—who cares if it was done in the regular season or a bowl game? If anything, Vince Young's performance in the 2005 Rose Bowl against USC is even more remarkable, given that that USC team is considered one of the most dominant teams of the modern era. Wake me up when Denard gets his third 200/200 game. (As noted above, he almost had his third against Penn State.)

Anyway, here are the 200/200 games listed in the NCAA record book, sorted by total offense. You'll note that Denard is the only member of the 240/240 club, and Marques Tuiasosopo is the only member of the 200/300 club.

Player

Team (Opponent)

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Marques Tuiasosopo

Washington (Stanford)

1999

207

302

509

Vince Young

Texas (Oklahoma St.)

2005

267

239

506

Denard Robinson

MICH (Notre Dame)

2010

258

244

502

Denard Robinson

MICH (Indiana)

2010

217

277

494

Reds Bagnell

Penn (Dartmouth)

1950

214

276

490

Brad Smith

Missouri (Nebraska)

2005

246

234

480

Brian Mitchell

La.-Lafayette (Colo. St.)

1987

271

205

476

Antwaan Randle-El

Indiana (Minnesota)

2000

210

263

473

Vince Young

Texas (USCRose Bowl)

2005

200

267

467

Patrick White

W. Va. (Pittsburgh)

2006

220

204

424

Steve Gage

Tulsa (New Mexico)

1986

212

209

421

The 1000/1000 Club

There are 30 quarterbacks (and one halfback, Johnny Bright of Drake) in FBS who have run and thrown for 1000 yards in the same season. Of these, none have both run and passed for 1500 yards (the rushing record for QBs is 1,223).

Seven quarterbacks have achieved this milestone multiple times: Brad Smith (thrice), Colin Kaepernick (twice and counting), Vince Young (twice), Pat White (twice), Beau Morgan (twice), Joe Webb (twice), and Joshua Cribbs (twice). Only two people have joined the 1000/1000 club as freshmen: Brad Smith of Missouri, and Joshua Cribbs of Kent State. Air Force leads the overall list with five different QBs, in six different seasons, in the 1000/1000 club. (It is interesting that an instrument of American capitalist imperialism, the U.S. Air Force Academy, is the premier exponent of Communist Football.)

As noted above, Denard joined the 1000/1000 club on his first drive against Iowa. If he stays healthy, he should easily become the first member of the 1500/1500 club. The list below of 1000/1000 members is sorted this list by rushing yards.

I've also added 2010 season totals for Cam Newton, Taylor Martinez, and Colin Kaepernick, three dual-threat quarterbacks who are likely to surpass 1000/1000 this year (Kaepernick already did so in 2008 and 2009).

Player

Team

Year

Rushing

Passing

Total Off.

Dilithium (on pace for)

MICH

2010

1,931

2,264

4,194

Newton (on pace for)

Auburn

2010

1,496

2,097

3,593

Beau Morgan

Air Force

1996

1,494

1,210

2,704

Joe Webb

UAB

2009

1,427

2,229

3,726

Jammal Lord

Nebraska

2002

1,412

1,362

2,774

Brad Smith

Missouri

2003

1,406

1,977

3,383

Chris McCoy

Navy

1997

1,370

1,203

2,573

Patrick White

W. Virginia

2007

1,335

1,724

3,059

Brian Mitchell

La.-Lafayette

1989

1,311

1,966

3,277

Brad Smith

Missouri

2005

1,301

2,304

3,605

Denard Robinson

MICH

2010

1,287

1,509

2,796

Dee Dowis

Air Force

1989

1,286

1,285

2,571

Beau Morgan

Air Force

1995

1,285

1,165

2,450

Antwaan Randle El*

Indiana

2000

1,270

1,783

3,053

Johnny Bright (HB)

Drake

1950

1,232

1,168

2,400

Chance Herridge

Air Force

2002

1,229

1,062

2,291

Patrick White

W. Virginia

2006

1,219

1,655

2,874

Keith Boyea

Air Force

2001

1,216

1,253

2,469

Ricky Dobbs

Navy

2009

1,203

1,031

2,234

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2009

1,183

2,052

3,235

Dwight Dasher

Middle Tenn.

2009

1,154

2,789

3,943

Michael Desormeaux

La.-Lafayette

2007

1,141

1,405

2,546

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2008

1,130

2,849

3,979

Cameron Newton

Auburn

2010

1,122

1,573

2,695

Dan LeFevour

Central Mich.

2007

1,122

3,652

4,774

Eric Crouch

Nebraska

2001

1,115

1,510

2,625

Craig Candeto

Navy

2003

1,112

1,140

2,252

Scott Frost

Nebraska

1997

1,095

1,237

2,332

Michael Carter

Hawaii

1991

1,092

1,172

2,264

Vince Young

Texas

2004

1,079

1,849

2,928

Joshua Cribbs

Kent State

2002

1,057

1,014

2,071

Vince Young

Texas

2005

1,050

3,036

4,086

Josh Nesbitt

Ga. Tech

2009

1,037

1,701

2,738

Bart Weiss

Air Force

1985

1,032

1,449

2,481

Ell Roberson

Kansas St.

2002

1,032

1,580

2,612

Brad Smith (Fr.)

Missouri

2002

1,029

2,333

3,362

Joe Webb

UAB

2008

1,021

2,367

3,388

Joshua Cribbs (Fr.)

Kent State

2001

1,019

1,516

2,535

Reggie Collier

So. Miss.

1981

1,005

1,004

2,009

Darian Hagan

Colorado

1989

1,004

1,002

2,006

Woodrow Dantzler

Clemson

2001

1,004

2,360

3,364

Taylor Martinez

Nebraska

2010

886

1,161

2,047

Colin Kaepernick

Nevada

2010

771

1,670

2,241

* Previous Big Ten record for rushing yards by a quarterback

Total Offense

Denard already owns the Michigan single-game total offense record (502 yards against Notre Dame). In fact, Denard has broken the old Michigan single-game total offense record four times this year, with games of 502, 494, 383, and 381 yards. (The previous record was 368 by John Navarre against Iowa in 2003.)

Denard is also on pace to annihilate John Navarre's single-season total offense record of 3,240 in 2003 (Denard projects to an astounding 4,194 yards after 8 games).

The Big Ten single-game total offense record is 585 yards by Dave Wilson of Illinois, vs. Ohio State in 1980. The Big Ten single-season total offense record is 4,189 yards by Drew Brees of Purdue in 2000, which is well within Denard's reach. Denard has to average 349 yards of total offense in his next four games to pass Brees; he is currently averaging 350.

The NCAA total offense records are dominated by prolific passers. Those records appear to be unattainable by Denard: 732 yards for a single game (David Klingler, Houston vs. Arizona State, 1990); 5,976 for a season (B.J. Symons, Texas Tech, 2003); 16,910 for a career (Timmy Chang, Hawaii, 2000-2004).

Total Offense Per Play

As with total offense records, these will be tough for Denard to keep pace with, but he is right up there at the moment. Through the Penn State game, Denard has 2,796 yards of total offense in 330 plays, for an average of 8.5.

Here are the NCAA FBS records for a single game: 14.3 by Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996) in 37 plays and 9.9 by David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990) in 63 plays. Denard came pretty close to Martin in the Indiana game, where in 35 plays he averaged 14.1 yards per play (which is almost certainly a Michigan and quite likely a Big Ten record):

Game

Attempts + Carries

Total Offense

Yards per Play

Connecticut

51

383

7.51

Notre Dame

68

502

7.38

Massachusetts

31

345

11.13

Bowling Green

9

189

21.00

Indiana

35

494

14.11

Michigan State

50

301

6.02

Iowa

36

201

5.58

Penn State

50

381

7.62

TOTAL

330

2,796

8.47

Jason Martin (La. Tech vs. Toledo, 1996)

37

529

14.30

David Klingler (Houston vs. TCU, 1990)

63

625

9.92

Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006 season)

645

5,915

9.17

Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-09 career)

970

8,439

8.70

As you can see in the table, for a single season (minimum 3,000 yards), the record is 9.2 by Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006). For a career (minimum 7,500 yards) it's 8.7 by Sam Bradford (Oklahoma, 2007-2009).

Passing Efficiency

Passing efficiency is a statistic that rewards quarterbacks for yards, touchdowns, and completions per attempt, and punishes them for interceptions per attempt. The NCAA formula, which differs from the NFL one, is:

Denard's 2010 passing efficiency is currently 155.3; his career efficiency (including last year) is 145.3, which would be close to a Michigan record if he keeps that pace. Here are Michigan's pass efficiency records:

Yards per completion, career (min. 120 completions): Rick Leach, 17.1, 1975-1978 (Denard is at 13.9 with 122 completions, good for 10th all-time)

Other Michigan Rushing Records

At the end of 2009, here were the other relevant Michigan rushing records. On average yards per carry, he owns one of the single-game records Michigan tracks, but is surprisingly far from the other ones (not that that couldn't change in a hurry). The single-season and career records are within reach:

Standard Disclaimers

Wins are more important than stats. The existence of this diary is not meant to imply that individual achievement is more important than the achievement of the team. It is, instead, to pay tribute to Denard's exceptional individual achievement within the context of a (hopefully) successful team. With a few minor exceptions, Denard's stats don't come at the expense of the team: when he rushes for 250 yards or has a QB rating of 270, the team is usually doing well. If you object to this point of view, you don't have to read further.

Past performance is not a predictor of future results. To the degree I describe end-of-season projections for Denard, I do so simply, rather than Mathletically: (current total) * (12-game season) / (games played to date). Clearly, we are playing better defenses in the second half of the year than we did in the first, and this should be taken into account when reading these end-year projections.

Projections are for a 12-game season. Beginning in 2002, the NCAA revised its single-season and career records to include postseason games. If Michigan becomes bowl-eligible, and thereby adds a 13th game to its schedule, this would significantly enhance Denard's impact on the record books. If and when Michigan wins its sixth game this year, I will revise all projections accordingly.

The quarterback position has evolved significantly. The forward pass was only formally legalized in 1906. From the 1910s until the 1950s, the most common college football formation was Pop Warner's single-wing, in which the quarterback's role was primarily as a blocker, and most passes were thrown by a tailback or halfback. The idea of a quarterback as the primary passer began to take hold after World War II, when coaches such as Clark Shaughnessy at Chicago and Stanford and Paul Brown at Ohio State took advantage of a recently redesigned football that was easier to throw, and married the ancient T formation to the threat of longer passes downfield.

The record books are murky from 1869 to 1937. Something to keep in mind is that the record books don't actually go back that far in time. At the national level, official statistics have only been recorded since 1937: a mere 52 percent of college football's history. It's not clear how rigorously school, conference, and national collegiate records were kept before then. (College football has been around since 1869.) One has to assume that Fielding Yost's point-a-minute teams would have harbored some record-producing players, though the game was quite different then, as noted above. So, to be as precise as possible, we should describe all of these records as modern-era, postwar records.

Post-1978 records are for Division I-A only. Let me note that all the records here are for Division I-A (FBS), but do include all Division I records prior to the I-A / I-AA split in 1978. I don't really care about who did what in the other divisions, given the inferior level of competition. Personally, I would prefer to eliminate the non-automatically qualifying BCS conferences, but since the NCAA doesn't do that, I won't.

Acknowledgments

Thanks to tf (Michigan rushing single-game record) and danieljpaul (Denard's season totals) for corrections. H/T to tubauberalles and enlightenedbum for tracking down the FBS single-game QB rushing record. Raoul and UM in VA persuaded me to post the total offense numbers, and pointed out Denard's ridiculous per-play stats, which I also added to the diary. Trebor pointed out that we should keep an eye on the impressive seasons of Taylor Martinez and Cam Newton. U of M in TX helped identify a few updating errors. Raoul also suggested putting in the team offense stats.

Why Rich Rod And Other Coaches Don't (And Shouldn't) Always Make Decisions Based On Those Statistical Percentages – And A Proposed Decision Table Coaches Could Use

Before beginning, let me state that (to the best of my knowledge) the statistical calculations that all of these analyzes use are absolutely correct. However, further review and some additional analysis reveals there are very good reasons coaches do not (and should not) always use the statistical percentages to make decisions.

Synopsis: Using probability and statistics, several different analyzes have concluded that football teams should Go For It far more often on 4th down (even when they are in their own end of the field). However, virtually no football coach (at the college or pro level) even comes close to following this scientific decision-making criteria. So, the obvious question is, "Why don't coaches make decisions during a game based on the statistical percentages?" There are three shortcomings of using the statistical analysis:

The statistical analyzes set decision thresholds that are too precise and too low.

Using statistical analysis to make decisions about a very few events within a football game is mathematical fallacy (especially at the precision proposed).

The application of expected value to make decisions in football is problematic.

Therefore, to compensate for these shortcomings, decision thresholds that are less precise and significantly higher should be used.

Revised Decision Threshold Table: The analyzes that have been documented to date have not included a decision table showing the magnitude of the net advantage used to make recommendations. Here is a decision table that shows the magnitude of the net advantage and uses less precise and significantly higher thresholds. While this significantly reduces when a team should Go For It on 4th down, the results are more credible, more likely to be followed in actual games, and more likely to benefit the offense.

In the table, ONLY the 10 events in the larger blue font in the light blue shaded cells (the upper right hand corner of the table) are recommended to Go For It on 4th down. They are:

Fourth and 1 yard to go from your own 40 yard line to the 50 yard line

Fourth and 3 yards to go (or less) from the opponents 49 yard line to the opponents 40 yard line

Fourth and 5 yards to go (or less) from the opponents 39 yard line to the opponents 30 yard line

The recommendation is to Go For It under these criteria when the score is relatively close and time is not a factor. Specific game conditions (such as weather conditions, earlier possessions during the game, current score, time remaining, confidence in having a play that will get the first down, etc.) may provide insight to modify the recommendations. I stopped at the opponent's 30 yard line because inside the 30 yard line, field goals become reasonable for most college football teams. In college football, teams have significantly different field goal success rates and any analysis should be based on that team's anticipated field goal success rate.

Comments on the Decision Table: Key points to consider when reviewing the decision table are:

I deliberately smoothed the data, looked only at 10 yard increments, and rounded the results to reflect the margin of error inherent in the analysis.

If the decision threshold is set as breakeven (+0.00), comparisons to other analyzes such as The Mathlete indicate a high level of consistency. (BTW, the red (0.0) numbers in the table are actually very small negative numbers rounded to (0.0). The black 0.0 numbers are very small positive numbers rounded to +0.0)

I took the numbers in the table and calculated one standard deviation (not sure how valid this is). One standard deviation is 0.9 and I decided to use 1.00 as the threshold. So, the threshold can be described as, "Go For It whenever your expected points are 1.00 or greater".

Glass half full or half empty? Take a look at the values in the table. Except for the positive values in the upper-right hand corner, and the negative values in the lower right hand corner, the others are very close to 0.00. From a conservative standpoint (half empty), the conclusion is to only Go For It in a limited number of cases. From an aggressive standpoint (half full), the conclusion would be to almost always Go For It except for a limited number of cases.

The "probability of scoring" was added to provide another view of the impact of decisions. For example, if you Go For It and make it from your own 40 yard line, you still only have a 32% chance of scoring (7 points). However, if you don't make it, the opponent gets the ball at your 40 yard line (i.e. Opp 40 in the table) and has a 46% chance to score. If you punt to the 20 yard line, the opponent has just a 20% chance of scoring. This relationship holds true for all the other yard lines – if you Go For It and do not make it, you more than double the opponent's chance of scoring (versus punting).

An Example of An Advantage of 1.1 Expected Points Per 4th Down Attempt:

Since it is obviously impossible to score 1.1 points, what does an advantage of 1.1 expected points mean? Well, it does not mean you are going to be successful and make the 1st down. Even if you make the 1st down, it does not mean you are going to score on this possession or that you will score before your opponent. It only means that over a large number of similar possessions over several games the net points you score divided by the number of 4th down attempts will equal 1.1 (each specific attempt may result in: turnover on downs, a punt, a FG, a missed FG, a TD, a subsequent turnover, etc.). Here is one possible scenario of what actual game results could look like with 4th down and 1 at your own 40 yard line:

This is, deliberately, a very simple scenario. It will likely take many more attempts than just 4 to approach the expected points in the table and there are many other possible scoring combinations. However, it does provide examples of how expected points translate to actual game results. Items to note in this example:

The offense is at a net disadvantage until the fourth attempt.

Net Offensive Points Per 4th Down Attempt (1.0) is close to the expected points per attempt (1.1) in the decision table.

Total Offensive Points Per Possession (2.3) is close to the expected points for an offense from its own 40 yard line (2.2).

Total Opponent Points Per Possession (3.0) is close to the expected points for a drive starting from the opponents 40 yard line (3.2).

This example also illustrates the significant risks involved in the decision: if the game ends prior to the 4th attempt, the offense is at a net disadvantage of 3 points and the result may be that you lose the game (even though the expected point analysis does not directly state this as even a possibility).

Development of the Proposed Decision Table: The decision table was derived from two basic sources: Football Outsiders Figure 1: Offensive Efficiency From Field Position and the Mathlete Never Punt With Denard? Fourth Down Strategy Revisited. I used the FO table (shown below) to calculate Expected Offensive Points by field position and the Mathlete's table for 4th down conversion rates. Note that many of the data points I used are not the exact numbers from these two sources. I smoothed the actual data to eliminate some minor anomalies (BTW, this does not affect the results – it is just a pet peeve with me).

The results in the decision table appear to be reasonable based on a comparison to these two sources as well as the Advanced NFL Stats When Should We Go For It On 4th Down? and David Romer, "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence From Professional Football", 2005. I did not use dynamic programming but used what I believe is a reasonable approximation. If anyone has a decision table with different or more accurate numbers, it would be great to compare and contrast the results. The decision table consists of:

Column 1: Yards To Go
Column 2: 4th Down Success Rate. This is based on The Mathlete's data for an average college football team. This introduces the first potential for a significant margin of error. Even if this was the actual success rate for a specific team over the first 10 games of the current season, does anyone believe it is the exact success rate for the 11th game? Of course not. But this does not completely invalidate the analysis. It does mean the decision should use less precise with higher thresholds.

Yellow Row At Bottom of Table: Starting Field Position (on the 4th down play).Light Blue Row At Bottom of Table: Expected Points Per Offensive Possession (from that field position)Orange Row At Bottom of Table: Probability of Scoring (7 Points) This is (Expected Offensive Points / 7) and provided as a reference only – not used in the calculations.

Columns 3-9: Expected Offensive Points (EP) Per 4th Down Attempt of Decision. This is based on the probability of making the first down, the starting field position, the expected offensive points from each specific field position, and the average net punting distance. The decision table provides the net expected offensive points per 4th down attempt of Going For It versus Punting. A positive number indicates a net advantage for the offense and a negative number indicates a net advantage to the opponent. I'll use a team's own 40 yard line with 4th down and 1 as the example.

EP of Decision To Go For It = EP (Make It) + EP (Fail)

Expected Offensive Points of Making It on 4th Down Is straightforward:

EP (Make It) = Probability of Making It X Expected Points At This Field Position = 72% X 2.2 = 1.58

Expected Points of Failing to Make It on 4th Down is obviously negative but also a bit tricky. You are still going to give the opponent the ball if you decide to punt rather than Go For It. So, the opponent would have some expected points anyway but based on a different field position. Therefore, I use the NET Expected Points in the calculation:

Net Expected Points = Expected Points After Failure To Convert – Expected Points After Punt
where:
Expected Points After Failure To Convert = (3.2) Points (they are now on your 40 not their own 40)
Field Position After Punt = their own 20 yard line
Expected Points After Punt = (1.4) Points (they are now on their own 20)
Net Expected Points = (3.2) – (1.4) = (1.8) Points

Background: The folks at Football Outsiders analyze college football using two systems (FEI and S&P+), Advanced NFL Stats provides analysis of pro football, the Mathlete has his analysis, and I am sure there are several others. The claim to fame for most of these systems is that a computer can take advantage of a statistical analysis of huge amounts of data: "nearly 20,000 possessions every season in FBS college football" or "every play of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (140,000 plays)", etc. A computer analysis is required because the human brain is simply incapable of processing this amount of data.

Here is the FO table that I used to calculate Expected Offensive Points by field position.

The Statistical Analyzes Set Decision Thresholds That Are Too Precise and Too Low: The decision threshold for all of these analyzes appear to have been set at breakeven (+0.00). This ignores the inherent margin of error and assumes a coach should take significant risks even when the rewards are essentially zero. (One example is the recommendation that teams should Go For It on 4th and 1 from their own 15 yard line!) The result is a loss of credibility in the analysis and a reluctance to believe and/or follow any of the recommendations. Here are three examples of the recommendations of when to Go For It on 4th down. The first is from the Mathlete:

Notice that all three of these analyzes recommend that a team should Go For It on 4th and 1 (Mathlete) or even 4th and 2 (Advanced NFL Stats and Romer) from your own 10-13 yard line! The reason? All three of these use the very precise and very low criteria that any value above 0.00 is an advantage to the offense and, therefore, warrants going for it on 4th down. This would be analogous to ticketing everyone that is going 0.01 miles over the speed limit – technically correct but impractical in the real world. IMO, anyone presented with the recommendation, "Go For It with 4th and 1 yard every time on your own 13 yard line" would be in disbelief and would dismiss any and all other recommendations from the same analysis.

In addition, the end result of these decisions is that "This evidence suggests that a rough estimate of the potential gains from going for it more often on fourth downs over the whole game is …an increase of about 2.1 percentage points in the probability of winning." (David Romer, "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence From Professional Football" 2005, Page 28). With a 12 game college football season, this corresponds to just one additional win every four seasons! Thus, you would expect a coach to Go For It on 4th down in hundreds of different scenarios (depending on field position, yards to go, expected conversion rates, expected net punting distance, expected field goal distance, game circumstances, etc.) on the prediction that every 4 years the team will win one extra game.

Using statistical analysis to make decisions about a very few events within a football game is mathematical fallacy (especially at the precision proposed): It is somewhat ironic that the advantages gained through the statistical analysis of tens of thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of data points is, in fact, why the results are not, can not, and should not be used to make decisions during a football game. In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

The law of averages is a term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" within a small sample. As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While the law of of large numbers does reflect that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur.

The 4th down analysis relies on the law of averages and not the law of large numbers. Decisions based on the law of averages (also called the gambler's fallacy) are a recipe for failure.

One of the critical inputs of 4th down analysis is the conversion rate that is anticipated on 4th down for various yards to go. Because there are so few 4th down attempts, all of the analyzes use 3rd down conversion rates instead. Let's assume that the anticipated conversion rate on 4th and 1 yard to go is 75% and that this is based on actual data from thousands of 3rd down and 1 attempts. The theory of large numbers predicts that, over a large number of 4th and 1 attempts, a team should expect that 3 out of every 4 attempts of 4th and 1 will be successful. Unfortunately, there are likely to be only a very few 4th and 1 attempts in a single football game – often less than a total of 4. If you have just one 4th down and 1, it is either successful or unsuccessful. If successful, the result will be better for the offense than the expected value in the analysis (hooray!). If unsuccessful, the result may be that you lose the game even though the expected value analysis does not directly state this as a possibility (it may be stated in a footnote – it may not).

The application of expected value to make decisions in football is problematic. The concept of expected value originated in the 17th century, was defined explicitly in 1814 by Pierre-Simon Laplace, and is used extensively in probability and statistics. However, the expected value is only a theoretical value and may be unlikely or even impossible (such as having 2.5 children). Expected value is difficult to reconcile in football since the only possible outcome of a possession is 0, 3, or 7 points (ignoring safeties, missed PATs, or 2 points PATs). It is difficult to make decisions based upon "a net advantage of 1.1 expected points per 4th down attempt".