I saw the repeated Salmon Fishing in the Yemen nominations and immediately visualized the nominators realizing that they only know four comedies that came out this year, and frantically flipping through IMDB to find something vaguely credible.

I figured there was a chance it wouldn't as soon as it turned into a trilogy. Hollyweird only likes to reward multi - arc film series at the conclusion of them, which in the Hobbit's case will probably be sometime in 2014 after the third film is released.

Zero Dark Thirty has three things going against it: 1) The controversy over whether the film is pro or anti torture. 2) Most of the people who have seen it say the film is located firmly in the grey end of the morality scale without pat or easy answers. 3) Several reviews have described the film as clinical or detached without much in the way of obvious "emotional" moments. The HFPA won't like that.

Downton Abbey for Best TV Series - Drama
Michelle Dockery for Best Actress in TV Series - Drama
Maggie Smith for Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Television Movie, Series or Mini-Series
Benedict Cumberbatch for Best Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television