Monday, September 29, 2008

This evening I was Mike Duffy Live"Prime Time Edition" debating some lefty-artsy guy about the Conservative government's political strategy of cutting arts funding.

The artsy guy, of course, was all indignant about the cuts.

But I defended the Conservative government, saying cutting arts was good politics because it mobilizes the Tory base and appeals to non-artists Canadians, who would rather see their money spent on something other than giant flying bananas.

OK get that? I was defending the Tories.

So anyway, on the very next segment, Duffy asks Tory spinner Jeff Norquay about my comments.

And how does he respond?

Does Norquay agree with my assessment?

No he attacks me. And then proceeds to explain how the Conservatives are actually spending tons of money on the arts.

In other words, he undid all the good I had done for the Conservatives on national television.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Lots of people are saying the NDP might jump over the Liberals and form the Official Opposition in the next Parliament.

I'm not buying it.

First off, even with a dud like Stephane Dion leading them, the Liberals still have a strong brand name and deep roots in many parts of the country, meaning coming hell or high water they will hang onto their core support which is enough to guarantee them second place.

Second off, the NDP has little room to grow vote-wise. Simply put, their policies are designed to appeal to union bosses, tweedy professors and left-wing special interest groups.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Prime Minister Stephen Harper was himself a victim of it during his time as president of the National Citizens Coalition. In those days, he was highly vocal on the subject, and conservatives had great expectations this heavy-handed restriction to free speech would be among the first pieces of legislative nonsense on his hit list.

We will assume he was waiting for a majority, as none of the opposition parties are anxious to extend citizen participation and therefore support the law. We will also assume that if he gets it, he will scrap the law. It would be good to hear him say so, though.Yes it would be good.

Monday, September 15, 2008

In its "Reality Check" website, the Liberal Party is spreading misinformation about the National Citizens Coalition and a 1993 campaign to defeat then MP Jim Hawkes.

Here's an excerpt from the Liberal site:

"Instead, he (Harper) served as both president and vice-president of the National Citizens Coalition (NCC), an extreme right advocacy organization that employed Mr. Harper between 1997 and 2001, and also assisted with his 1993 election campaign."

That last bit implies the NCC supported Stephen Harper's election campaign in 1993.

We did not.

We did run a $50,000 multi-media ad campaign urging voters in Calgary Southwest to “Defeat Jim Hawkes”, but this campaign had nothing to do with Harper, but was simply part of larger war the NCC was waging against election gag laws.

Unfortunately for Hawkes, he was the government’s point man and chief public defender of an election gag law the Mulroney government had enacted. That made him, in our mind, a marked man.

We were determined to defeat Hawkes, to send a message to politicians everywhere: any politician who endorsed gag laws would pay a steep political price.

That’s why when the writ was dropped in 1993 we hammered Hawkes with everything in our arsenal: newspaper ads, radio spots, TV commercials --- all of them linking Hawkes with the gag law.

Our message was simple: Hawkes wanted to take away the right to free political speech.

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Here's the problem with the latest Tory cutesy-wutesy TV ads: they don't make any political sense.

That's not to say positive ads never make sense.

A guy like Ronald Reagan could use them effectively because they reflected his image as a optimistic and likable leader.

But Harper is no Reagan.

Like it or not, Stephen Harper is widely perceived as a cold, calculating, bully.

It might not be true, but in politics perception is reality.

And airing a bunch of ads with Harper in a sweater talking about motherhood issues, isn't going to change that reality.

The Liberals, if they any political intelligence at all, (which is debatable) will capitalize on this perception and let loose a stream of super-negative attack ads which will portray Harper as a cross between Genghis Khan, Mike Tyson and Simon Cowell.

Since such attack ads will play to an already existing perception they will resonate with voters.

That's why I suspect once the election is truly underway the Tories will drop the Mary Poppins routine and slip on the brass knuckles.

In fact, Liberal leader Stephane Dion is much more vulnerable than Harper when it comes to negative perceptions.

Canadians view him as a wimp.

Why a wimp?

Because Tory attack ads defined him that way.

In other words, both parties have good solid strategic reasons to go negative.

I mean to become a US presidential nominee for a major party a candidate must endure a gruelling 18 year primary process, spend a trillion dollars in places like Iowa and show up a couple times on Jay Leno.

But for the Vice Presidential nominee it's totally different; they are plucked out of nowhere.

Take John McCain's running mate Sarah Palin -- the former mayor of Moose Butt, Alaska. Until a week ago, nobody outside of a few polar bears had ever heard of her.

And now she's the "Queen of Hockey Moms."

Still I must say, I thought her speech last night at the Republican convention was excellent, just the right mix of political jabs and folksy charm.

One thing's for sure, the Republicans now have the polar bear vote wrapped up.

About Me

Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant and writer who has been called a “political warrior” a “brilliant strategist” and one of the “canniest political observers in Canada.”
He has worked as a consultant in both the United States and Canada and was formerly a senior officer in the National Citizens Coalition.
A regular columnist with the Ottawa Hill Times, his work has also appeared in the Globe and Mail, the National Post and in the Sun Media chain; and he has appeared on countless TV and radio public affairs programs. He is the author of the book, Loyal to the Core, Harper, Me and the NCC.

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