Crude Oil Trading Strategy

Fundamental view argues for lower price in crude but now it's time to be cautious shorting crude because it is near 40 and risk reward doesn't favor the short trade around this levels. Our strategy is to buy any sharp selloffs for a rebound. Understanding of a price action is the key here. There are two scenarios.
1) Crude Oil stabilizes around 40.
2) It goes lower toward 30.
In both cases, long trade is favored because if it bounces from 40 then we would be in good position to ride it towards 50/60 and if it goes to 30 then there are more chances of it coming back around 35/40 before it goes to 20 ! Well this is our thinking and we are going to trade with this playbook.