Last time I broke down which rookie wide receivers and pass catching tight ends have the most talent. Now it’s time to get to the heart of the matter. In this post I will present a preliminary model that predicts total receiving yards for wide receivers and tight ends and total passing yards for quarterbacks. In the first pass through the data, I’ll be strictly using information from the 2013 NFL season. I’m not readjusting for previous injuries that kept a player off the field (e.g. Julio Jones & Reggie Wayne) nor am I readjusting based on the difference between early and late season play (e.g. Cordarrelle Patterson, though the opposite of what you’re probably thinking). I’ll make a more robust prediction once the depth charts are a little more settled.

To make this prediction I entered variables that represent quarterback ability (broadly construed), receiver ability (broadly construed), and number of targets into a Bayesian multiple regression analysis. If you’re interested in some of the technical details of the Bayesian analysis, they can be found at the bottom of this post. For the general reader, in the past, those variables have explained about 33% of differences in yardage totals and been off by an average of 300 yards. Also be aware that this model constricts the range of the predictions. It tends to underestimate the high end and overestimate the low end. The reason for the constriction can be found in the technical details.

The first table shows predictions for wide receivers. To get into this table, a wide receiver had to have been the target of at least one pass during the 2013 season and be listed as at least the 4th wide receiver on the projected depth chart according to CBS Sports as of July 24th. You can argue with me about that decision all you want. I made it entirely because I only have so many hours in my day and somebody else had projected some line-ups.

Wide Receivers

Rank

Team

First Name

Last Name

Projected Yards

1

Pittsburgh

Antonio

Brown

1014.3

2

Denver

Demaryius

Thomas

1012.7

3

Tampa Bay

Vincent

Jackson

989.9

4

Houston

Andre

Johnson

981.2

5

Chicago

Alshon

Jeffery

973.7

6

Cincinnati

A.J.

Green

954.4

7

San Diego

Keenan

Allen

948.8

8

Green Bay

Jordy

Nelson

947.7

9

Atlanta

Harry

Douglas

940.7

10

Washington

Pierre

Garcon

940.2

11

Chicago

Brandon

Marshall

930.6

12

New Orleans

Kenny

Stills

914.8

13

Detroit

Calvin

Johnson

898.2

14

New Orleans

Marques

Colston

886

15

Seattle

Percy

Harvin

876.8

16

San Diego

Malcom

Floyd

873.8

17

Dallas

Dez

Bryant

857.9

18

Arizona

Michael

Floyd

826.9

19

Baltimore

Torrey

Smith

804.7

20

New England

Julian

Edelman

803.9

21

Indianapolis

T.Y.

Hilton

801

22

Washington

DeSean

Jackson

800.1

23

Atlanta

Julio

Jones

795.1

24

San Diego

Eddie

Royal

791.7

25

Atlanta

Roddy

White

781.2

26

Arizona

Larry

Fitzgerald

779

27

Denver

Emmanuel

Sanders

768.1

28

Miami

Brian

Hartline

766.5

29

Miami

Mike

Wallace

758.1

30

San Francisco

Anquan

Boldin

757.6

31

Houston

DeAndre

Hopkins

748

32

Denver

Wes

Welker

747.5

33

New Orleans

Robert

Meachem

740.4

34

Philadelphia

Riley

Cooper

730.5

35

Green Bay

Jarrett

Boykin

715.2

36

Oakland

Rod

Streater

713.2

37

Indianapolis

Hakeem

Nicks

709.9

38

Jacksonville

Cecil

Shorts

699.4

39

Dallas

Terrance

Williams

699.1

40

Seattle

Doug

Baldwin

697.1

41

New York Giants

Victor

Cruz

691.4

42

Tennessee

Kendall

Wright

684.7

43

New York Jets

Eric

Decker

677.2

44

Cincinnati

Marvin

Jones

676.5

45

San Diego

Vincent

Brown

658.6

46

Kansas City

Dwayne

Bowe

647.1

47

Kansas City

Donnie

Avery

641

48

Detroit

Golden

Tate

632.7

49

Oakland

James

Jones

631.6

50

Tennessee

Nate

Washington

629.3

51

Minnesota

Greg

Jennings

622.6

52

New England

Danny

Amendola

612

53

Arizona

Ted

Ginn

610.2

54

Minnesota

Jarius

Wright

601.7

55

Oakland

Denarius

Moore

596

56

Carolina

Tiquan

Underwood

596

57

Green Bay

Randall

Cobb

595.5

58

New England

Brandon

LaFell

592.2

59

Minnesota

Jerome

Simpson

591

60

Carolina

Jerricho

Cotchery

588.9

61

Baltimore

Steve

Smith

586.6

62

Pittsburgh

Lance

Moore

586.1

63

Indianapolis

Reggie

Wayne

578.1

64

New England

Aaron

Dobson

553.1

65

San Francisco

Steve

Johnson

544.2

66

Jacksonville

Ace

Sanders

536.5

67

Chicago

Marquess

Wilson

530.7

68

New York Giants

Rueben

Randle

528.9

69

Baltimore

Marlon

Brown

524.4

70

Miami

Rishard

Matthews

520.2

71

Seattle

Jermaine

Kearse

519.3

72

New England

Kenbrell

Thompkins

518.9

73

Washington

Santana

Moss

512.2

74

Cincinnati

Mohamed

Sanu

506.6

75

Oakland

Greg

Little

505.5

76

Buffalo

Robert

Woods

504.9

77

Washington

Andre

Roberts

502.3

78

Dallas

Cole

Beasley

499.8

79

Baltimore

Jacoby

Jones

495.1

80

St. Louis

Chris

Givens

484.2

81

Atlanta

Darius

Johnson

477.3

82

Cleveland

Andrew

Hawkins

470.4

83

Detroit

Kris

Durham

460.2

84

Minnesota

Cordarrelle

Patterson

454.3

85

Cleveland

Nate

Burleson

446.7

86

Chicago

Josh

Morgan

445.6

87

St. Louis

Brian

Quick

441.1

88

Houston

Keshawn

Martin

425.3

89

New York Jets

Jeremy

Kerley

423.8

90

Tampa Bay

Chris

Owusu

422.4

91

San Francisco

Michael

Crabtree

410.3

92

Arizona

Jaron

Brown

408.8

93

St. Louis

Tavon

Austin

398.2

94

St. Louis

Austin

Pettis

395.1

95

Buffalo

T.J.

Graham

393.4

96

Kansas City

A.J.

Jenkins

385.6

97

New York Giants

Jerrel

Jernigan

384.3

98

Houston

DeVier

Posey

380.4

99

Cincinnati

Dane

Sanzenbacher

377.3

100

New York Jets

David

Nelson

366.6

101

Tennessee

Justin

Hunter

353.4

102

Kansas City

Junior

Hemingway

345.6

103

Carolina

Jason

Avant

342.1

104

New York Jets

Stephen

Hill

311.5

105

Pittsburgh

Markus

Wheaton

300.7

106

Dallas

Dwayne

Harris

298

107

Tampa Bay

Louis

Murphy

256.5

108

Detroit

Ryan

Broyles

252.3

109

San Francisco

Quinton

Patton

249.2

110

Buffalo

Mike

Williams

246.8

111

Cleveland

Miles

Austin

230.6

Remember that this table is entirely derived from last year’s data. Some of those predictions may be too high (Harry Douglas, T.Y. Hilton, possibly Vincent Jackson) and others too low, but all in all, it’s a decent list.

Tight Ends

Rank

Team

First Name

Last Name

Projected Yards

1

New Orleans

Jimmy

Graham

992.1

2

San Diego

Ladarius

Green

855.4

3

San Diego

Antonio

Gates

853.5

4

Denver

Julius

Thomas

768.8

5

Chicago

Martellus

Bennett

717.3

6

Carolina

Greg

Olsen

689.9

7

Miami

Charles

Clay

676

8

Dallas

Jason

Witten

670.4

9

Tampa Bay

Brandon

Myers

667.2

10

San Francisco

Vernon

Davis

660.6

11

Cleveland

Jordan

Cameron

651.7

12

Pittsburgh

Heath

Miller

646.1

13

Philadelphia

Brent

Celek

639.6

14

New England

Rob

Gronkowski

627.5

15

Indianapolis

Coby

Fleener

584.3

16

Houston

Garrett

Graham

579.2

17

Arizona

Rob

Housler

568.1

18

New Orleans

Benjamin

Watson

565.6

19

Washington

Jordan

Reed

561.7

20

Buffalo

Scott

Chandler

557.2

21

St. Louis

Jared

Cook

546.8

22

Cincinnati

Tyler

Eifert

530.8

23

Cincinnati

Jermaine

Gresham

523.3

24

Arizona

John

Carlson

495.4

25

Jacksonville

Marcedes

Lewis

493.2

26

Green Bay

Andrew

Quarless

479.9

27

Houston

Ryan

Griffin

477.5

28

Carolina

Ed

Dickson

470.8

29

Seattle

Zach

Miller

461.6

30

Tennessee

Delanie

Walker

447.6

31

Jacksonville

Clay

Harbor

447.4

32

Oakland

Mychal

Rivera

445.7

33

Dallas

Gavin

Escobar

441.8

34

Indianapolis

Dwayne

Allen

438.5

35

Detroit

Brandon

Pettigrew

432

36

New York Jets

Jeff

Cumberland

428.4

37

Minnesota

Kyle

Rudolph

395.9

38

Kansas City

Anthony

Fasano

389.9

39

Baltimore

Owen

Daniels

363.6

40

Atlanta

Bear

Pascoe

345.2

41

Philadelphia

James

Casey

333.4

42

Atlanta

Levine

Toilolo

319.2

43

Pittsburgh

Matt

Spaeth

295

44

Cleveland

Jim

Dray

293.3

45

Baltimore

Dennis

Pitta

292.9

46

Chicago

Matthew

Mulligan

287.5

47

Washington

Niles

Paul

285.5

48

Miami

Michael

Egnew

278.8

49

Denver

Virgil

Green

254

50

Minnesota

Rhett

Ellison

251.8

51

San Francisco

Vance

McDonald

238.5

52

St. Louis

Cory

Harkey

202.7

53

New York Giants

Kellen

Davis

202.5

54

Tennessee

Craig

Stevens

-136.3

Couple weird things about this table. First is the insane yardage totals for both Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. Green was very good last year in limited usage. Gates has been very productive for a very long time. The question for 2014 production among those two individuals is who is going to get the targets. Green’s prediction is driven by assuming great talent but limited targets. Gate’s prediction is driven by assuming many targets, but declining ability due to age. It will be very interesting to see how the tight end battle in San Diego sorts itself out. You’ll also see that one prediction is negative. The model is unimpressed with everything associated with Tennessee’s offense and makes no apologies for it.

Quarterbacks

Rank

Team

First Name

Last Name

Projected Passing Yards

1

San Diego

Philip

Rivers

5067.0

2

New Orleans

Drew

Brees

4746.6

3

Denver

Peyton

Manning

4181.0

4

Chicago

Jay

Cutler

3954.7

5

Green Bay

Aaron

Rodgers

3943.2

6

New England

Tom

Brady

3774.6

7

Seattle

Russell

Wilson

3773.2

8

Arizona

Carson

Palmer

3758.1

9

Indianapolis

Andrew

Luck

3754.0

10

Atlanta

Matt

Ryan

3720.9

11

Washington

Robert

Griffin III

3666.6

12

Houston

Ryan

Fitzpatrick

3661.6

13

Cincinnati

Andy

Dalton

3633.4

14

Miami

Ryan

Tannehill

3632.7

15

Dallas

Tony

Romo

3535.7

16

Tampa Bay

Josh

McCown

3535.0

17

Oakland

Matt

Schaub

3525.7

18

Philadelphia

Nick

Foles

3477.3

19

Pittsburgh

Ben

Roethlisberger

3474.6

20

Jacksonville

Chad

Henne

3381.3

21

Carolina

Cam

Newton

3321.1

22

Detroit

Matthew

Stafford

3306.0

23

Baltimore

Joe

Flacco

3130.7

24

Kansas City

Alex

Smith

3045.4

25

New York Giants

Eli

Manning

3009.3

26

Minnesota

Matt

Cassel

2984.6

27

San Francisco

Colin

Kaepernick

2926.1

28

Buffalo

E.J.

Manuel

2905.8

29

New York Jets

Geno

Smith

2843.3

30

Cleveland

Brian

Hoyer

2727.6

31

Tennessee

Jake

Locker

2604.6

32

St. Louis

Sam

Bradford

2534.0

Philip Rivers is the top of this list, largely because the model is unsure what is going on with the tight end situation in San Diego and is just sort of throwing up its hands. That being said, Rivers was really, really good last year and has an impressive cast to throw to. Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd are quality veterans while Ladarius Green and Keenan Allen are up and coming rookies that had remarkable seasons last year. I’d be high on Philip Rivers.

That’s all for our first jump into predicting the 2014 season. Near the end of the pre-season, I’ll have a more robust prediction based on more accurate depth charts.

Technical details

The Bayesian model began with weakly informative priors. Receiver yardage totals follow a gamma distribution. In an attempt to simulate a long-tailed distribution, the dependent variable was assumed to be t-distributed. The equation was trained on data from the 2011 season predicting 2012 yardage totals and then evaluated with 2012 season data predicting 2013 yardage totals. Average deviation of the prediction from the actual in the evaluation data was 314 yards.

[…] receivers, and tight ends. This new model makes two major corrections compared to the one I posed a couple weeks ago. First, it corrects for 2013 injuries. You’ll note that Julio Jones has a much higher predicted […]