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Solar Activity Report for 10/9/01

We are inside of a somewhat gusty solar wind stream this evening that is coming from a relatively small coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity has thusfar been

Message 1 of 702
, Oct 9, 2001

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We are inside of a somewhat gusty solar wind
stream this evening that is coming from a relatively
small coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity has thusfar
been modest, although skywatchers in did spot some
faint aurora in the wee hours of Oct 9. Things should
get more interesting by the 11th. Sunspot group 9653
fired off an M1.4 flare at about 1100Z this morning,
and a nice full-halo CME erupted along with it. It
looks like it is travelling at about 1000 km/sec, and
should make its way here sometime Thursday.<br><br>The
current solar and geomagnetic conditions are
:<br><br>NOAA sunspot number : 99<br>SFI : 176<br>A index :
16<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar wind speed : 384.4
km/sec<br>Solar wind densiry : 2.6 protons/cc<br>Solar wind
pressure : 0.7 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.5 nT<br>IMF Orientation
: 4.5 nT South<br><br>Conditions for the last 24
hours :<br>Solar activity was moderate. The geomagnetic
field was quiet to active.<br><br>Forecast for the next
24 hours :<br>Solar activity will be low to
moderate. The geomagnetic field will be quiet to
active.<br><br>Solar activity forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected
to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9653 remains
capable of producing M-class flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic
activity forecast :<br>The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels through day one due
to high speed coronal hole effects. Active to minor
storm conditions are possible late on day two through
day three due to CME effects associated with the M1.4
flare at 09/1113 UTC<br><br>Recent significant solar
flare activity :<br>09-Oct-2001 1113Z M1.4

b1blancer_29501

On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,

Message 702 of 702
, Mar 1 9:47 PM

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On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
<a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
are close to rotating out of view over the western
limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
:<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
possible source for isolated M-class
flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
the onset of high speed stream effects from a
recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
activity :<br>None

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