Obama’s State of the Union Speech Dilemma

Obama’s State of the Union
Speech Dilemma: Calling on Congress to “Fast Track” the
Trans-Pacific Partnership Will Further Alienate
Congressional Democrats and Fuel Ire among Conservative
Republicans

During his annual “State of the
Union” address before a joint session of Congress on
January 28 at 9:00 PM Washington time, President Obama is
expected to highlight his major trade initiatives. This
includes the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal, a massive
pact between the U.S. and 11 Asian and Latin American
nations. The business lobby is pushing hard for Obama to
use the speech to call on Congress to pass Fast Track trade
authority for the TPP in the face of growing opposition in
Congress and the U.S. public.

The priority Obama does or
does not give to Fast Track in the speech will be revealing.
Fast Track proponents and opponents alike believe that Obama
must make a significant personal investment in pushing
Congress to approve the controversial procedure. The speech
is one of Obama’s key opportunities to signal to Congress
and the public that TPP and Fast Track to pass it are
personal priorities.

Congressional opposition to TPP
is growing and for several decades Democratic and Republican
presidents have been hard pressed to get Congress to
delegate Fast Track authority. In the 20 years since passage
of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Fast
Track has only been in effect for five years (2002-2007).

When legislation to establish Fast Track, also
referred to as Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), was recently
introduced in Congress, not even one Democrat in the House
of Representatives was willing to sponsor the bill. Fast
Track faces an extreme uphill battle in the House, which
must act on the measure first under U.S. constitutional
rules.

A stunning array of U.S. labor unions,
environmental organizations, faith groups, consumer
organizations, on-line advocacy groups and more immediately announced their vigorous
opposition to the bill.

Members of Congress, many
of whom supported past free trade agreements, including the
top Democrat on the relevant House Committee Sander Levin,
have blasted the Fast Track legislation as being
inappropriate for expansive pacts like TPP. Last month, 151
House Democrats signed a letter saying they oppose
granting Fast Track authority to President Obama for
approval of TPP, arguing lawmakers have been cut out of
negotiations. "We want transparency. We want to see what's
going on there," House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi
(D-Calif.) told reporters. "We have a problem with
that."

“The president has spent months
establishing his legacy issue, which is battling growing
American income inequality and creating new middle class
jobs. The congressional Democrats are with him on that, but
they know that TPP would increase income inequality and the
U.S. public hates these NAFTA style agreements,” said Lori
Wallach, Director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch.
“So if Obama highlights Fast Track and TPP in his speech,
it will push the congressional Democrats to make more public
the distinction between them and Obama on these
issues.”

The president’s speech coincides with
the 20th anniversary month of the
implementation of the North America Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA), which public opinion polling shows that a
majority of Democrat, Republican, and Independent U.S.
voters reject. NAFTA’s contribution to U.S. income
inequality makes “fast tracking” a massive, TPP NAFTA
expansion a hard sell among Democrats in Congress. A group
of Senate Democrats added their voice to the growing chorus
in a letter to Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid this week. Reid, who controls the Senate calendar
for consideration of any legislation, said he has not yet
made a commitment to bring the Fast Track bill to the Senate
floor, and indicated that his willingness to do so will
depend on the support within the Democratic caucus.

Meanwhile, conservative members of the Republican Party,
who are skeptical of granting any additional authority to
President Obama, also continue to speak out loudly against
Fast Track. This reverberation continues after 27
Republicans signed letters announcing their
opposition to Fast Track late last year and high-profile Tea
Party Republican Senator Rand Paul came out against the
procedure earlier this year.

Given this massive
opposition in Congress across the political spectrum, Obama
would be forced to make this politically unpopular policy a
personal top priority in the first half of 2014 before
lawmakers’ attention turns to midterm elections (where the
entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate
will stand for reelection). Thus far, the White House has
not been vocal or active in promoting Fast Track. The U.S.
Trade Representative even declined an invitation last week
to testify at a Senate Finance Committee hearing considering
the Fast Track bill, much to the consternation of Senate
supporters of the bill.

“If the White House does
not do a full court press in support of Fast Track, it is
clear that Fast Track will remain dead in the water in
Congress,” said Wallach. “But if the President does
personally push for Fast Track, he may well still lose on
that but in addition he will alienate the vast majority of
congressional Democrats at a time when he needs them to
support other key domestic priorities, and further embolden
conservative Republicans against him. Either way, very few
Members of Congress are going to be eager to have to take a
vote on this unpopular policy in an election year.”

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