Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 27, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Emily Owens, M.D.

canceled

0.51

90210

😐 😐 😐

0.58

Gossip Girl*

final season complete

0.61

Nikita (F)

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.65

The Carrie Diaries

😐 😐 😐

0.80

Hart Of Dixie

😐 😐 😐

0.87

Beauty And The Beast

😐 😐 😐

1.02

Supernatural

1.31

Arrow

1.60

Vampire Diaries

1.96

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Fans of 90210 better hope that the CW’s Mark Pedowitz is still handing out short final seasons for old shows, because that’s the only way 90210 survives into next season. Its ratings are dreadful, even for the CW. Since reading Mr. Pedowitz’s mind is the only way to know for sure, I’m keeping it as a “toss up”.

Desperate fans may cite Pedowitz’s public statements as cause for hoping for one thing, or another, but after doing this for more than five years, I’m 100% certain that trying to assign probabilities based on TV executive public statements is folly.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.