How China's Mysterious Leadership Changes Work

China is due for a handover of power to the 'fifth generation' of
communist party leaders in mid-October.

While much has been made of the transition, there's still a lot
of confusion about the structure of the Chinese Communist Party,
its make-up, how leaders are chosen and how long they can stay in
power.

The first camp consists of the 'princelings'
i.e. the children of high-powered revolutionary era
officials and the 'Shanghai clique' i.e. they
have significant experience running the country's economically
strong coastal provinces. China's future leader Xi
Jinping is a princeling.

Leaders from this faction, "tend to favor policies that maximize
economic growth, with a greater acceptance of growing disparities
of wealth; that promote the interests of China’s emerging
business and professional classes; and that continue economic
policies that benefit China’s more prosperous coastal regions,"
according to Dotson.

The second camp is the 'tuanpai' and refers to
those leaders who have emerged from the Chinese Communist Party's
(CCP) youth organization. Unlike the Shanghai Clique, these
leaders tend to have experience working in the nation's poorer
provinces that are further inland and push for policies that
would develop these parts of the country and prevent social
instability.

"They also tend to share experience working in China’s poorer,
inland provinces, as well as experience in 'Party Affairs' work
such as propaganda, personnel administration, and the 'united
front' management of labor, ethnic, and religious organizations,"
according to Dotson. Li Keqiang,
premiere-in-waiting, has emerged from this faction.

This diverse make-up of the fifth generation is expected to cause
some political infighting. It is also said to have been expedited
Bo Xilai's downfall since he was known to have
angered senior party members. But the fifth generation is likely
to put on a united front to avoid a repeat of the political rift
that emerged in the late 1980s, culminated in the Tiananmen
Square incident and nearly toppled the
communist government.

The new face of China

Another reason this handover has received so much attention is
because of the number of new leaders expected to take power. The
Politburo consists of a group of 25 leaders who lead the
communist party. With Bo's dismissal it is down to 24, and 14 of
these members are expected to change.

Four
of the most likely candidates for the PSCMamta Badkar / Business Insider

The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) – the
most important decision making body in the country – is drawn
from the Politburo, and seven of the nine PSC members will be
stepping down. From
Cheng Li at Brookings:

"The principal figures responsible for the country’s political
and ideological affairs, economic and financial administration,
foreign policy, public security and military operations will
largely consist of newcomers after the 18th Party Congress in the
fall of 2012 and the 12th National People’s Congress in the
spring of 2013. This upcoming power transition in the top
leadership will likely be the largest in the past three decades."

How exactly does it work?

Since 1987 the Communist party has been resorting to a
multi-candidate election in which the top leaders decide how many
members they want on their Central Committee and nominate
additional candidates on the ballot, according to Cheng. The ones
with the lowest votes are left off the central committee. This
helps limit nepotism/cronyism.

The Communist party has over time developed these forms of
"intra-Party democracy" tactics as Cheng points
out. Policymakers have over time begun to try "democratic
experiments" and some like premiere Wen Jiabao think this will
eventually lead to democracy.

They also have a secret ballot vote to elect party secretaries.
"In general, major personnel and policy decisions are now often
decided by votes in various committees, rather than solely by the
committee’s party chief," according to Cheng. Additionally, the
position of the provincial party secretary is almost always given
to someone from another province.

The system also has in place age limits and term limits to limit
the amount of time officials spend in power.

The Fifth Generation

Leading up the to 17th Party Congress in 2007, many had expected
Li Keqiang to follow Hu Jintao as president. But Xi Jinping gained
significant popularity among members of the Communist Party's
central committee and is believed to have been nominated after a
compromise by Hu.

Xi's father Xi Zhongxun, former vice-premiere,
gained favor with Hu Yaobang who had been
chairman of the Communist Party from 1981 -1982. From Dotson:

"Xi Zhongxun’s friendship and political alliance with Hu Yaobang
“in the long run gave political credits to his son [Xi Jinping]
in the eyes of liberal Party officials and the so-called ‘Youth
League faction’, thereby adding to the younger Xi’s value as a
compromise candidate acceptable to both of the CCP’s most
powerful factions.

...Xi Jinping may have been successful in rising through the CCP
bureaucracy in part by being attentive to senior leaders, and
circumspect in expressing his own views. Such reporting as is
available paints a picture of a man who is very personable; very
politically ambitious, with his eyes on a senior leadership post
from an early age; and possessed of a confident belief that the
children of the CCP’s revolutionary generation are the natural
heirs to rule China."

Many of the important decisions for the handover and the new PSC
are believed to have taken place during this summer's secretive
Beidaihe meeting. There's been no date set for the handover,
but Chinese media reports suggest that the PSC will have only
seven members, down from nine.