UFC 160 betting: Velasquez holds mental, statistical edge over Silva

If this bout looks familiar, it’s because almost a year ago Cain Velasquez painted the Octagon red with Antonio Silva’s blood at UFC 146.

But “Bigfoot” Silva has also done the improbable to get back here. After being a mild underdog against Travis Browne (+190), then a big underdog against Alistair Overeem (+390), Silva is now a huge underdog in his rematch with Velasquez (+550).

Despite a two-fight win streak and a win over one of the greatest heavyweights of all time in Fedor Emelianenko, we all seem to still be ignoring the existence of Bigfoot. So let’s look at the stat line and see if that’s justified.

Tale of tape:

These are heavyweights, and they go large. But Silva will be the larger fighter with a height and reach advantage. But Silva is also the older of the two and pushing 34, approaching a risky range for knockouts. This looks like a wash to me, or perhaps a slight physical advantage to Silva that he won’t be able to back up for long.

Standup:

While Silva has a very slight edge in striking accuracy, it’s the more important metrics of pace and power that give a big advantage to Velasquez. Velasquez can outpace the bigger, slower Silva out of the gates and the knockdown ratings favor the champ both in his fists and in his chin.

Don’t let the raw number of the defensive knockdown stat fool you. Bigfoot is three times as likely to get dropped by a landed power head strike than Velasquez. The chin of a fighter is more important than ever in heavyweight fights. If this stays standing, Bigfoot will still have the heavyweight puncher’s chance, but per exchange Velasquez will likely do more damage.Ground:

On the ground is where it gets worse. Velasquez has been completely dominant on the ground, and frequently looks to take the fight there to work ground and pound. While Silva once used ground and pound against Fedor, putting Velasquez on his back will be very difficult. Though Silva has a black belt in BJJ, both his recent losses are against strong wrestlers (Cormier and Velasquez).Prediction:

It may not be the answer promoters want to hear, but this fight should strongly resemble the first. Velasquez can take and win this fight anywhere and he has the stamina to do it round after round. But given how powerful he is, the end should come much sooner than the championship rounds.

Tthe Rangers' 19-29 home record represents the fewest home wins of ANY of MLB's 30 teams...

My free play is on the SF Giants at 3:05 ET.

Mike Leake (9-5, 3.56 ERA) was acquired by San Francisco on Thursday from Cincinnati for two prospects and makes his first start for the Giants on Sunday in Texas. "He's a quality starter who's going to help us," SF manager Bruce Bochy Bochy said. "He's excited about being here. He's been throwing the ball well, good athlete. That's a great move for us to give us some depth in the rotation." Leake steps into the rotation in place of the injured Tim Hudson (shoulder) and has allowed just two ERs on 15 hits in 30 innings (0.60 ERA) while winning four straight starts, completing the eighth in three. He did just that while limiting NL-leading St Louis to four hits in Tuesday's 4-0 road win.

Leake has to like the fact that his new team has won 14 of its past 17 contests to move 1 1/2 games back of the NL West-leading LA Dodgers. The Giants bounced back from Friday's 6-3 loss in the series opener by spoiling Cole Hamels' Rangers debut with a 9-7, 11-inning victory Saturday. The win makes San Francisco 15-8 (plus-$920) when facing a left-handed starter in 2015 and today San Francisco draws another lefty, in Texas' Martin Perez.

Perez (0-2, 10.50) gets a fourth chance at his first win since returning from Tommy John surgery. He surrendered a career high-tying eight runs before getting an out in the second inning and being pulled in Tuesday's 21-5 loss to the New York Yankees. He has now allowed 22 hits in 12 innings over three starts since returning from Tommy John elbow surgery, giving him a 10.50 ERA, 2.33 WHIP and opponents are batting a ridiculous .407 against him.

Throw in the fact that the Rangers' 19-29 home record represents the fewest home wins of ANY of MLB's 30 teams and the bet HAS to be on the Giants.

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