Seattle Seahawks
@

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Oct 13

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis

Note: This game was part of a Strong Opinion teaser – Cleveland +7.5 with Tennessee +8 (both at +7.5 or more only) – that has since moved out of range.

Lean – CLEVELAND (+1.5) over Seattle

Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks held Russell Wilson to 4.9 yards per pass play in two games as head coach of the Cardinals last season and I’m expecting Wilson to struggle again this Sunday. Cleveland’s defense has dealt with injuries at outside cornerback but nickelback Eric Murray is surrendering a league-low 0.48 yards per slot cover snap and he will make it difficult on the inside for Tyler Lockett, who is averaging 2.11 yards per route run (15th). TE Will Dissly is gaining 2.70 yards per route run (1st) but he should be limited as the Browns are one of seven teams allowing less than 7 yards per target to opposing tight ends. Myles Garrett ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency and it is noteworthy that the Browns are moving him around more on defense this season. The Pro Bowl edge defender already has more pass rushes versus right tackles than he did all of 2018 (when he rushed almost exclusively against left tackles) and I suspect that Garrett will be lined up more against the right tackle to avoid left tackle Duane Brown, who has surrendered just 1 sack. Garrett should have an easy time getting to the backfield when lined up against right tackle Germain Ifedi, who is ranked last in pass blocking efficiency. Chris Carson is forcing 0.24 missed tackles per rush (5th) and the Seahawks will likely turn to their running back versus the Browns 29th-rated rush defense but the Seahawks’ pass attack doesn’t match up that well against the Browns personnel.

Cleveland’s offensive line is taking criticism but they haven’t been as atrocious as the media consensus seems to think. The Browns rank 7th in the league with a 61% pass block win rate but the problem has been Baker Mayfield holding on to the ball too long – partially due to Freddie Kitchens sending too many receivers deep. Mayfield is averaging 2.96 seconds to throw (3rd-highest) but if he can get the ball out quicker, Cleveland’s offensive line should be able to block Jadeveon Clowney and Quinton Jefferson, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders. Jarvis Landry is gaining 2.60 yards per route run in the slot (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup as Seattle’s nickelbacks have combined to concede a bad 1.64 yards per cover snap.

The Seahawks were out-gained 7.1 yards per play to 6.4 yards per play last Thursday and general sentiment on this team would be different if Rams’ kicker Greg Zuerlein was able to convert on the 44 yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining. The Browns come into Sunday underrated after playing in a tough spot traveling cross-country with a body clock disadvantage against a team coming off a bye. We took advantage with an easy Best Bet win on San Francisco, but that 3-31 loss sets up the Browns in a 154-77-4 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on inferior home teams (favored by less than 3 or getting points) after a loss of 20 points or more. Russell Wilson’s will be contained by Steve Wilks with Dissly and Lockett limited, while I’m expecting a bounce-back game from Baker Mayfield.

The injury report released on Friday indicates left tackle Duane Brown and right guard DJ Fluker will not play this Sunday lowering our model prediction to Seahawks by 1.0 (with a predicted total of 45.1 points) with a significant matchup advantage for Cleveland and a good situation favoring the Browns to bounce-back.