World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Equities are slightly higher this morning, the dollar is also slightly higher, bonds are lower, oil is trying to break $100 a barrel again, and food commodities are higher for the sixth day in a row – Merry Christmas.

As I told you to expect last month, this month produced a large spike higher in Durable Goods Orders due to a single large aircraft order from Boeing. That order caused Durable Goods Orders to jump 3.8% in November, here’s Econonotaclue:

HighlightsNew orders for civilian aircraft led to a huge spike in durables orders. Otherwise, durables orders were modestly positive. New factory orders for durables surged 3.8 percent, following a no change the prior month (prior revised estimate, down 0.5 percent). The November boost was much higher than the consensus forecast for a 1.9 percent jump. Excluding transportation, durables grew 0.3 percent after a 1.5 percent gain in October (prior revised estimate, up 1.1 percent). The November rise fell short of expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. However, upward revisions are offsetting.

Outside of transportation, new orders were led by primary metals and machinery with fabricated metals and "other" also gaining. Weakness was seen in computers & electronics and also electrical equipment.

A disappointment was in civilian capital equipment excluding aircraft which dipped 1.2 percent after a 0.9 percent decline in October. Shipments decreased 1.0 percent in November after a 0.8 percent fall the month before.

Overall, durables point to continued gains in manufacturing but not at a robust pace outside of aircraft.

Look for next month's report to disappoint.

Reality? Durable Goods is a national embarrassment. Not only does this not make me proud, it makes me ashamed. Below is a chart showing Durable Goods Orders, as measured in dollars against MZM, the largest dollar measurement currently produced. Note that Durable Goods Orders, measured in dollars, collapsed in 2008 – at the low point it was only $150 Billion, not that far above where it was in the early ‘90s. In dollars, it has now risen to a little over $200 Billion, a figure that is a little short of doubling in the past two decades. But what you have to consider is that the supply of dollar during the same time period went from roughly $2 Trillion all the way to nearly $11 Trillion, more than 5 times the amount! And I’m here to tell you that MZM vastly understates the total moneyness that exists today:

Durable Goods Vs. MZM:

Let me translate what I said above in a way that is a little easier to understand – the reality is that Durable Goods Orders are massively shrinking! If you were to measure the actual total widgets produced here in the United States, the numbers are dramatically less. What are we producing in reality? Dollars. Dollars backed by DEBT. Debt that pays interest to private individuals. The same individuals who are shipping our manufacturing overseas. The same individuals who where wrongly given the authority to produce money from nothing. Illegally and in direct conflict with the Constitution – Article 1, Section 8.

Think I’m wrong about that? Take a look at the following chart of Durable Goods versus M1. You will see a very strong correlation:

Durable Goods vs. M1:

Note that downturns in Durable Goods are always met with increases in money supply. We produce money and are absolutely losing our ability to produce real goods. The end game for our money is getting close. They cannot allow the math to get smaller or all the figures measured in dollars will collapse, and there goes their power and control – they know this, so they won’t allow it to happen. They will try and try to create ever larger numbers in the money space, just look at Europe’s latest “LTRO.” This is what kills money systems. A structural reset of some type is nearing – look for “other events” to distract you.

Now, to make reality very clear for Durable Goods, we are going to divide Durable Goods by M1 so that we can see the effects of money creation on something that is measured in money:

Durable Goods Divided by M1:

That's right... Durable Goods fell off a cliff to new all-time REAL lows, and is near that area still, despite massive money printing - that's the reality and it is laid bare by that chart.

Meanwhile, Personal Income reported for November disappointed, coming in at .1% following October’s .5% (revised lower of course). Note that the wages and salary component is actually negative. Consumer Spending was also very anemic, rising only .1%. Gee, what happened to that “record setting” Black Friday that the media is still claiming set all kinds of records and was up like 15% over last year? Well, that was all bullshit:

HighlightsPersonal income and spending posted modest gains in November. Meanwhile, PCE price inflation was soft. Personal income in November grew 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase the month before. November's gain fell short of analysts' forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. However, the wages & salaries component slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent increase in October. The rise in personal income was led by gains in rental income and dividends combined with a decline in contributions for government social insurance.

Consumer spending in November advanced a soft 0.1 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase the month before. The market consensus was for a 0.3 percent gain. Weakness for the latest month was in nondurables (reflecting lower gasoline prices) which fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent dip in October. Durables jumped 0.8 percent in November as services edged up 0.1 percent.

Headline inflation firmed but both headline and core inflation remained soft. The headline PCE price index was unchanged after dipping 0.1 percent in October. Analysts had called for a 0.1 percent increase. The core rate held steady at 0.1 percent in November and matching market expectations.

Year-on-year, headline prices were up 2.5 percent, compared to 2.7 percent in October. The core was up 1.7 percent, matching the pace of the prior month.

While November income is little disappointing, that is less so after taking into account earlier healthier gains. However, spending is sluggish though less so after discounting inflation. Real PCEs rose 0.2 percent in each October and November after jumping 0.5 percent in September.

Overall, the fourth quarter is showing improvement over the third but not as much as earlier hoped. But the majority of the Fed's FOMC will be happy with the recent inflation numbers, allowing the Fed to stay loose for some time.

Nothing but manure, the stench is distracting. Again remember that these measurements are first measured in dollars! So, even with all the money printing occurring, both personal income and consumer spending were only able to eek out .1% gains – absolutely pathetic, oh, and not even close to real!

If you want to see real, here it is.

Below is a chart showing Personal Income versus M1. Note that since 1975, personal income has supposedly grown from about $2.8 trillion to a little more than $11 trillion, an increase of roughly 4 times. However, the supply of money during the same time grew nearly 8 times, or about twice the rate of growth!

Personal Income vs. M1:

Now, if we divide Personal Income by M1, then the picture of REAL Personal Income becomes clear (not the trumped up version of Fedspeak “real” – that is not real, it is a lie because they drastically understate inflation):

Personal Income Divided by M1:

Yowzzaa… That is the reality right there. Note that your income to the money supply has never been weaker! That is a picture of the SQUEEZE that you are in. You are put into that squeeze by the people who profit (wrongly) from the creation of your money. You are being paid in debt! Talk about nutty, you owe interest on the money which you are being paid with! And you don’t owe it to your government, you owe it to a few private individuals! Nuts! If I offered to pay you in debt, you would refuse, right? Yet that is exactly what you’ve been accepting your entire life, just not stated clearly to you.

I hope that wakes people up, you are truly feeding the matrix with your work… and it doesn’t have to be like that at all, all we have to do is say NO MORE.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Welcome to winter… in more ways than one. It’s definitely snowing Euros, and that pushed trumped markets higher for the manipulators overseas, while the grand master manipulators back home managed to fudge data and push equity futures higher as well. However, the dollar is flat and bonds are higher which does not support higher prices in equities. Oil, meanwhile, is still gumming up the global economy, while for today gold and silver take a little break, and food commodities are mixed.

The almost final Q3 “final” GDP revision pushed supposed “growth” down from 2.0% to 1.8%. It will be revised lower again with the annual adjustments which will have to consider how the NAR lied about existing home sales. By the way, when an already existing home is sold, is that really something that should be counted in the nation’s “productivity?” Especially when said sale is financed with more debt? Yep, just one reason why our GDP is vastly overstated. Here’s Econoshouldknowbetter:

HighlightsEconomic growth for the third quarter was more sluggish than previously believed and the change in the component mix will have economists rethinking their forecasts for the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department for its third estimate for third quarter GDP growth nudged its number down to 1.8 percent annualized growth from the prior estimate of 2.0 percent annualized. Market expectations were for overall GDP growth to be unrevised.

The downward revision primarily was due a smaller decline in inventories and also to less robust growth in personal consumption.

Final sales of domestic product were revised down to 3.2 percent from the second estimate of 3.6 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were down to 2.7 percent from the prior estimate of 3.0 percent annualized.

On a year-ago basis, GDP is up 1.5 percent, compared to 1.6 percent in the second quarter.

Economy-wide inflation revised up marginally to 2.6 percent from the second estimate of 2.5 percent. Analysts had called for an unrevised 2.5 percent.

This morning's economic news was mixed as GDP growth for Q3 was revised down while the latest initial jobless claims number came in unexpectedly down and lower than expected. Many traders saw the combination as a wash as equity futures were little changed. While technically the change in the component mix (from final sales to inventories) should lead to downward revisions to fourth quarter GDP forecasts, more current data (notably the recent declines in jobless claims) might suggest an upward revision.

What nonsense. Completely a pretend figure.

And while we’re on the subject of GDP, I want to once again point out how ridiculous it is for anyone, especially economists who should know better, to talk about Debt to GDP comparisons! Completely a worthless metric! Comparing supposed “productivity” to debt is like comparing your neighborhood’s productivity to your own personal debt! What do they have to do with one another? Absolutely NOTHING. Debt to income is what matters, and nations stopped talking about that a long time ago (because we’re bankrupt, and no, money/debt printing does not make you “unbankrupt”).

And since they snow us with bullshit about supposed “productivity,” I feel compelled to respond with that Robert Kennedy Quote:

“Too much and too long, we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our gross national product...if we should judge the United States of America by that - counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.

Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.” ― Robert F. Kennedy

Just as a sidebar, Corporate Profits were downgraded .3% in the third quarter to go along with the downgrade in GDP.

Speaking of snow jobs, the Weekly Jobless Claims number supposedly fell by a whopping 2,000 to 364,000. This is completely not believable, and is still well above the breakeven threshold of 350k:

HighlightsLayoffs are on a steady decline in what is good news for the jobs market and for the December employment report. Initial claims fell for a third week in a row, down 4,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 364,000 (prior week revised to 368,000 for a 17,000 decline). The four-week average is also down for a third week in a row and down for six of the last seven, declining 8,000 to 380,250 which is the lowest level of the recovery.

Continuing claims in data for the December 10 week fell 79,000 to 3.546 million, also the lowest level of the recovery. The unemployment rate for insured workers, down one tenth to 2.8 percent, is also at a recovery low.

The holidays, with its shortened weeks and extreme effects, are always a tough to gauge weekly jobless claims data, but the trend is clearly lower in what should be good news for the markets and which should continue to build expectations for a strong gain in December payrolls.

And with the prior week revised higher, the snow job says it decreased by 4,000, not the 2,000 it really did, thus a 100% overstatement of the actual week to week change. If they want to compare revised numbers, then they must wait until the next report – comparing apples to oranges falls into the fraud category in my book.

Just out from Zillow, according to them home values in the United States lost $700 billion in 2011, this is down from the $1.1 trillion in 2010. Still, this is a huge figure that directly impacts the wealth and solvency of Americans. Note that we’re so far into the depression at this point, that the numbers mathematically must start to diminish. In other words, once your home has lost half its value, then the dollar amount of losing the next 50% is far less than the first 50%. I think the same thing is happening to the weekly jobless claims. Once businesses layoff all they can, and a big percentage of them go out of business, then there are simply fewer workers to layoff, and thus the numbers eventually must begin to diminish as the economy gets smaller. And it is smaller despite the phony GDP measurement which really measures debt money production, not real productivity.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index deepened into negative territory. What, they didn’t get the election year trump up the statistics memo?

HighlightsGrowth indications are slowing in the national activity index which fell to minus 0.37 in November from a revised minus 0.11 in October (negative indicates below trend growth). Employment is a positive in the report but is being offset by a downturn in production. Housing is still heavily negative with sales, orders & inventories neutral. The index's three-month average is at minus 0.24 (prior revised).

So, tell me how the national index is negative at the same time the individual “Fed” regions report positive numbers? Again, this is one of the key tests of fraud… data in a non-fraud environment will be consistent, while data in a fraudulent and manipulated system is inconsistent.

Consumer Sentiment supposedly rose from 67.7 to 69.9, beating estimates of 68.0. I say, “ba humbug,” instead of the usual “bullshit” just to be in phase with the season. Here’s Econosnow:

HighlightsConsumer sentiment continues to extend its improvement, to 69.9 in December from 64.1 in November and from 67.7 at mid month. The reading implies a very strong 72.1 over the last two weeks which points to momentum for January. The bulk of the gain is centered in expectations, at 63.6 in December for a more than eight point monthly gain that points further to momentum in the new year. The assessment of current conditions, likely held down by bad news out of Europe, rose only two points in the month to 79.6.

One likely positive for sentiment is improvement in the jobs market as well as the stock market which has been on the recovery. Another positive may be gasoline prices which, despite $100 oil, are on the decline. One-year inflation expectations eased one tenth in the month to 3.1 percent with five-year expectations unchanged at 2.7 percent. The Dow is moving to morning highs following this report. The December consumer confidence report from the Conference Board, which in November surged, will be posted on Tuesday.

Forget the snow, this is all bullshit too.

The self-interested FHFA says that the Home Price Index fell .2% in October, this is down from the .9% reported in September (revised all the way down to .4%), and is well below expectations of positive .3%. Gee, more snow:

HighlightsHousing is back under downward price pressure. According to the FHFA, house prices in October declined 0.2 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in September (originally up 0.9 percent) and dipping 0.2 percent in August. The October decrease came in lower than analysts' forecast for a 0.3 percent rise.

On a year-on-year basis, the FHFA HPI is down 2.8 percent versus down 2.7 percent in September.

Six of the nine Census Divisions showed declines in October, led by a 1.0 percent decrease for the New England region. On the upside, the largest gain was a 1.9 percent boost for the East South Central.

Just how deep is the snow when prior “positive” reports are more than cut in half? Pretty darn deep.

Supposed “Leading Indicators” fell from .9% to .5%, but his was higher than the .3% expected by the complicit elite. Here’s Econosnow:

HighlightsThe index of leading economic indicators rose a very solid 0.5 percent in November following October's 0.9 percent surge. The leading positive is the rate spread which reflects the Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy. The second positive is building permits which appear to be building steam in what is very good news for the construction sector. Consumer expectations are a big positive in the month and judging from this morning's consumer sentiment report look to be a big positive for December. Another positive that's likely to extend through this month is the November improvement in jobless claims which gave the fifth strongest contribution to the month's 0.5 percent gain.

A decline in the factory workweek is the largest in the short list of negatives, and perhaps one that will reverse this month given early indications of strength in last week's Empire State and Philly Fed reports. A speeding up in vendor deliveries is the second largest negative.

This report is very solid and points, as the Conference Board says, to easing risk of an economic downturn. Other readings include 0.1 percent gains for both the coincident and lagging indexes.

Again, complete bologna. A big part of this index is the movement in equities. With trillions thrown into bond and equity markets, equity prices are WAY overstated. That means any result out of a measurement that uses said manipulated market is also just a reflection of the manipulation. This is very dangerous as it is misleading, not “leading.” Those who don’t understand this fail to see the underlying reality that is Kondratieff Winter. Yes, it’s snowing all right.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Equity futures are close to even following yesterday’s ridiculous ramp. The dollar is bouncing, bonds are flat, oil is higher, gold & silver are mixed, and food commodities are down slightly.

Here’s a Bloomberg headline that should make your blood boil as an American, "Bernanke Prods Savers to Become Consumers." Wow, talk about setting your own nation up for failure, self-interest above all else is what he is basically saying. No need to save according to him, he would much rather lend you money so that he and the rest of the private central bankers can continue to be rich off your productive efforts. Why yes, of course more of the same behavior that got us to where we are today will definitely cure the impossible math, sure.

Speaking of impossible math, try this one on and think about the size of these numbers reported by Bloomberg: “The ECB awarded 489 billion euros ($645 billion) in 1,134- day loans, the most ever in a single operation and more than economists’ median estimate of 293 billion euros in a Bloomberg News survey.”

OMG! $645 billion in one day? That’s quite the “operation!” And the math is so ridiculously out-of-control that it’s not even funny. As if more debt money, more “liquidity” is what is needed! Too much money, all in the WRONG HANDS is the problem! Does this look like a money shortage problem to you?

M1

No, the problem never has been about liquidity, the real problem is solvency – the difference being that it requires income to service debt, creating more debt, as in the ECB “operation” above, only makes the solvency problem worse. Ridiculously impossible – laughable.

There’s only one way out of the impossible math, and it involves clearing out the debt. And then there’s only one way to prevent it from happening again, and that involves changing out WHO it is that was wrongly given the authority to control the production of our money.

Turning back to the housing market, here’s a statistic that will blow your socks off:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Nearly five years into the crisis, just how badly are foreclosures still hurting the housing market?

A whopping 46% of homes sold in November were either short sales or REOs -- as homes foreclosed on and repossessed by lenders are called, according to a survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance released Tuesday.

"The huge glut of distressed properties coming to market is why there will be no home price rebound this coming year and maybe into 2013," said Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance, a publisher of mortgage information and news.

Nearly half of all sales are short sales or REO’s! Think about that one – it means that only half of the already depression era level reported sales figures are conventional transactions! And each family behind that bank owned property or short sale is a devastated family – great job for your masters, Bernanke, I’m thinking treason is a hanging offense.

Speaking of treason, the hypocritical Mortgage Bankers Association are in a criminal class all by themselves. Here’s Econocomplicit reporting their latest down numbers for the prior week:

HighlightsNews on the housing market has been turning positive but not for the purchase index for the December 26 week which fell 4.9 percent. The four-week average for the purchase index is down 1.5 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association warns that low interest rates by themselves aren't enough to stimulate demand given lack of equity in existing homes, poor credit conditions and a still weak jobs market.

The refinancing index fell 1.6 percent in the latest week with the four-week average up 1.3 percent. The average 30-year rate for conforming loans ($417,500 or less) is down four basis points to 4.08 percent for a new 2011 low. Data on existing home sales will be posted at 10:00 a.m. ET this morning.

Nice warning from the asshats who helped destroy so many lives and create so much suffering and turmoil for so many.

Existing Home Sales data was just released by the fraudsters, NAR. The National Association of Realtors, another self-interest driven special interest group has been caught red-handed fudging the housing sales numbers for the past five years. According to other groups who track the data, their overstatement is approximately 20%, and the NAR just owned up to the following:

Also released today are benchmark revisions to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.

That’s right, they are revising their data downward by 14.3% for the past four years – a start. But they claim it’s mostly a mistake in their accounting of homes listed “for sale by owner.” Sorry, not believable, there are not enough for sale by owner properties to cover half that figure as they claim. My belief is the NAR was intentionally overstating figures in order to make their own industry appear to be in better shape than it actually was. That is called FRAUD, and there are laws against committing fraud!

Just think of the impact of their fraud… lives ruined, the largest economy in the world distorted by their lies. Their lie is a part of our grossly overstated GDP for crying out loud! This is exactly why private self-interested parties should not be allowed to disseminate important economic statistics on their own industry!

Can you imagine if all sales figures are overstated by nearly 15% (or more)? Gee, what would that revised GDP look like? What, then, would the revised debt to GDP look like? You seeing that snow ball?

Oh yeah, for November Existing Home Sales, according to NAR, fell to a pathetic 4.42 million homes from October’s 4.97 million, this is well below the 5.08 million expected by those economic guessers conditioned by the continuous FRAUD.

Now, if you would like to listen to the NAR’s propaganda on how they calculate their numbers, then the following convoluted methodology is presented:

Of course they could just gather reported sales data from the counties as the sales are recorded, but then they couldn’t claim ignorance, could they? Well, I guess that since MERS isn’t following the law to record titles, STILL, that might not reflect reality either. No rule of law, can’t believe MERS still exists, can’t believe the NAR is allowed to report data on their own industry – that data should come from a neutral, non-conflicted party.

More fraud? The Comex doesn't possess the gold (and other commodities) to which they have open contracts. That means they are fractionalizing gold (and other commodities). In the case Kyle Bass cites below, the Comex has $80 billion in contracts, only $2.7 billion in deliverables! That's only 3.37% of actual materials!! So, as Kyle points out, should 4% of people request actual delivery, the Comex will be unable to deliver to the remaining 96+%... Sure, no fraud there, completely manageable leverage, no problem whatsoever, go long!

By the way, fractionalizing of gold was the way central bankers got started in the money making business, just sayin'...

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Equity futures are zooming this morning and overnight as Europe laughably advances with the media touting a “strong” Spanish bond sale. Complete joke on several fronts, the least of which is that neither the equity markets, the bond markets, nor the media are even close to real. In the current central banker paradigm, they own all of the above… all it takes for a “good” or a “bad” bond issue is for them to step in or out with their money made from nothing. That’s it, that’s all it takes. The people have no vote on their actions, no say whatsoever, and that’s exactly why the notion of an “elected democracy” is simply just a fantasy at this point.

Of course our dollar is falling to allow the ramp in equities, bonds are falling from extreme heights, oil is zooming, gold & silver are bouncing, and most importantly to the majority of people on the planet, food commodities are also zooming on the dollar debauchery.

Amazingly, the Greek government announced that due to widening deficits it is stopping all outgoing payments – pensions, all government payments, everything! Yet of course they are not stopping revenue collection! Talk about broken, queue the next level of rioting.

Meanwhile, completely unconcerned about the “majority,” Jamie Dimon, Economic Edge Asshat of the Year Award Winner and CEO of JPMorgan, once again puts his foot into his narcissistic mouth:

Jamie Dimon, the highest-paid chief executive officer among the heads of the six biggest U.S. banks, turned a question at an investors’ conference in New York this month into an occasion to defend wealth.

“Acting like everyone who’s been successful is bad and because you’re rich you’re bad, I don’t understand it,” the JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO told an audience member who asked about hostility toward bankers. “Sometimes there’s a bad apple, yet we denigrate the whole.”

Dimon, 55, whose 2010 compensation was $23 million, joined billionaires including hedge-fund manager John Paulson and Home Depot Inc. (HD) co-founder Bernard Marcus in using speeches, open letters and television appearances to defend themselves and the richest 1 percent of the population targeted by Occupy Wall Street demonstrators.

If successful businesspeople don’t go public to share their stories and talk about their troubles, “they deserve what they’re going to get,” said Marcus, 82, a founding member of Job Creators Alliance, a Dallas-based nonprofit that develops talking points and op-ed pieces aimed at “shaping the national agenda,” according to the group’s website. He said he isn’t worried that speaking out might make him a target of protesters.

“Who gives a crap about some imbecile?” Marcus said. “Are you kidding me?”

Mr. Marcus makes a very typical narcissistic statement, echoing much of what Dimon has said in the past. This article, from a source that is complicit and owned by another famous narcissist (Bloomberg), also only mentions Dimon’s base salary, always downplaying what fellow “club” members really make. The fact is that Dimon is heading the world’s largest holder of derivatives, a company that wrongly stole the ability to produce money from the people. He and his company then use that ability to buy their own special rule of law that allows them to rob the American people. The issue is not genuine success, I don’t think anybody denies the genuine successful businessman – but Jamie Dimon is NOT one, he is a cheater and a fraud who has an unfair and illegal advantage (read the Constitution, Article 1, Section 8) over the rest of the people on the planet. And since he has no sympathy for those who don’t have or want his unfair advantage, that is what makes him the king of the narcissists.

This morning Housing Starts data supposedly came in better than expected, largely due to “multi-family” housing – that is apartments for the 99% who are being evicted from their single family homes en masse (thank you, Mr. Dimon, for helping to create the largest housing bubble in history [and then profiting from its collapse] – Asshat!).

Remember, building inventory into an oversupplied and price descending market is not a good thing, in fact bringing on inventory too soon is a bad thing as it will continue to suppress prices. Building apartments is a speculative phenomena by individuals and funds that have too much money and not enough places to put it to work that is REAL. Here’s Econoplicit:

HighlightsNew housing construction is showing signs of life in November-although the pulse is still weak. Housing starts in November rebounded 9.3 percent after slipping 2.9 percent in October. The November annualized pace of 0.0.685 million came in higher than market expectations for 0.636 million units and is up 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in November was led by a 25.3 percent jump in the multifamily component, following a 15.2 percent decrease in October. The single-family component improved 2.3 percent after a 3.6 percent rise the month before.

By region, the boost in starts was led by a 53.8 percent jump in the Northeast. Other regions showing increases were the West, up 22.6 percent, and the South, up 4.1 percent. The Midwest declined 18.2 percent.

Homebuilders are a growing in optimism although still to a modest degree from low levels as housing permits advanced 5.7 percent after jumping 9.3 percent in October. The November rate of 0.681 million units annualized topped the consensus forecast for 0.645 million. Permits in November are up 20.7 percent on a year-ago basis.

The November gain in permits was led by a 13.9 percent jump in multifamily permits after a 22.7 percent surge in October. Single-family permits rose 1.6 percent, following a 3.6 percent increase the prior month.

Today's housing starts report is consistent with yesterday's report of a rise in the National Association of Home Builders' housing market index. There are signs that the level of activity in single-family home sales is picking up, but the real action clearly has shifted to the multifamily sector as high unemployment and still tight credit are constraining home sales.

Just to put this depression era number into perspective, below is the long term chart of Housing Starts:

Housing Starts:

Yesterday the “Housing Market Index” came out… rising from 20 to 21, what fun! However, since the prior month was revised down to 19, LOL, Econoday touted a 2 point rise! No, I won’t even reproduce that tripe. I’m bringing it up because I want to point out that this Index, and the Housing Starts data are brought to you buy… wait for it… wait for it… the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB – no self-interest there) along with… wait for it… Wells Fargo! I’m laughing so hard I’m spewing coffee that anyone would believe any of this “data.”

So, what else should you know about the “Housing Market Index?” Well, not only does it come from a completely biased group, but it is simply “based on a survey in which respondents from this organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions.”

Uh huh. In other words, not in the least bit scientific. So, what’s it for, you may ask? Its purpose is to implant perceptions in your mind, perceptions that the special interests control. That’s it. Usually the special interests don’t like it when their own data looks bad, so what they do is either just stop comparing it to historical data, or they change the methodology to make past comparisons difficult, like what the Mortgage Bankers did with their “data.” In this case, the media like Econoday, stops disseminating charts when the data isn’t favorable. But if you dig a little deeper on the NAHB site, you can still find the data in chart form, and here it is:

Housing Market Index vs. New Single Family Starts:

Clearly depression era numbers, only about a third of the normal historic level. Is that what we get when reading the Econoday reports? Why is that?

The percentage of Washington companies offering employee benefits has declined markedly in the last decade, a new report from the Economic Opportunity Institute shows.

In 2002, 76 percent of firms in Washington provided health insurance to full-time employees, while in 2010, that figure was just 54 percent, according to the institute’s Washington’s Working Women 2012.

The percentage of firms offering retirement benefits to full-time employees fell from 60 percent in 2002 to just 36 percent in 2010. And the percentage of firms offering paid sick leave to full-time employees shrank from 56 percent in 2002 to 44 percent in 2010.

For part-time employees — the majority of whom are women, according to the report — only 15 percent of businesses offered retirement benefits, 22 percent provided vacation, and 11 percent offered health benefits.

The report also found that women made only 63 percent of what men did in 2010, a decrease from 1991, when the figure was 65 percent. Men outearned women at every level, making $7,000 more a year at the high-school graduate level and $27,500 per year among those with a professional or graduate degree.

“State budget cuts, declining workplace benefits, and a widening wage gap are putting Washington’s women at risk for more economic instability and poverty in 2012,” the institute commented in a press release.

Did someone say "poverty?" Well, here's the latest chart from the Census Bureau showing the number of people they consider in poverty. Note the trend, but also keep in mind that they adjust the figures for the income level considered "poverty" and that those adjustments don't account for the loss of benefits (see above) that aren't counted as income for these poverty measurements:

Ho, ho, ho, Jamie "Scrooge" Dimon, Merry Freakin' Christmas!

Since this is the week for housing data, I do want to revisit the Option-Arm reset chart. We are now well on the back side of peak, so again I do expect that the pressure on upper end homes will slowly begin to abate in the coming months:

Option-Arm Resets:

No, this is not a bottom call, just that the pressure is coming off a little, the same thing that happened post Subprime. There is another danger wave to housing, that being the artificial low nature of manipulated interest rates.

The markets are now zooming absolutely straight up. Why? I’m sure the media will find the reason, but it will certainly have nothing to do with this:

Monday, December 19, 2011

Equity futures rose overnight as there is still more endless dreams and much flapping of lips in Europe about creating billions… but by whom, exactly? Everyone seems to think the central IMF criminals will make the pretend money first, the EU doesn’t want to ruin appearances after all. Meanwhile media fraudsters like Bloomberg laugh at the rating agencies for downgrading the U.S. as they see a flight to “safety” trade since the U.S. lost its “triple-A” rating. What I see is nothing but money printing, data manipulation, and fraud.

There is a bunch of housing data coming this week, it kicks off this morning with the Housing Market Index and then later in the week culminates in Existing and New Home Sales where we get to listen to more lies from the National Association of Realtors. Speaking of lies, we also get the final number for Q3 GDP (major eye roll there), and we also get the supposed “Leading Indicators” which lag reality, of course, and is now completely worthless as it considers sophomoric items such as the completely not real and totally manipulated equity market. Remember, ALL of the markets are not real, they are all manipulated as the central bankers directly infuse money from nothing into them – thus the historic disconnect between the data, the spin, and the reality for millions of Americans being marginalized by the narcissist’s behavior.