Oh, no, he dint! Oh, yes, I did! David Ortiz got stamped with the schmohawk label and shoved into the overrated for 2009 fantasy baseball thingamajiggywitit. How’s dem apples? Sour? Good, they’re supposed to be. Ortiz doesn’t get to taste my Delicious apples. With Facebook’s 25 Inane Things About Yourself That No One Cares About, Not Even Your Mother making the rounds, I figured I’d crib that shizz for David Ortiz. Only I’m going to do one thing, because 25 is a ridiculously large number. I can’t even count that high when I’m drunk. And right now I’m drunk on hate! For Ortiz. Not you. You I like. Anyway, why’s David Ortiz overrated for 2009 fantasy baseball?

David Ortiz is old for players of his girth. Take Mo Vaughn, for instance. (I take Mo Vaughn everywhere and he always finds his way home — oofa!) Big Mo was knocking down Cask ‘n Flagon Sammy A’s with the best of them until he no longer was. Look at Mo Vaughn’s most similar by age. (BTW, do you ever find yourself losing like 3 hours of a day in the Baseball-Reference site? Yeah, me too.)

Before there was Big Papi there was Big Mo…. It’s sad, but true. Mo Vaughn took a pretty major dump after the age of 31. Ortiz’s age 30 year was 54/119/.332 then, at age 31, he went 35/117/.332. Last year at age 32, Ortiz went 23/89/.264. This year he’s going to be a Latin 33. Mo Vaughn’s career end was rushed along by injuries. Um, Ortiz has been healthy? In Spring Training, Ortiz has already been complaining of shoulder soreness. Then you throw in Ortiz has no position eligibility…. Ugh, people. Seriously. What do you want from me? My last Hot Pocket? Just do me a favor and avoid David Ortiz in your 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

Ortiz will be no good this year. It’s still early, but after watching two games of the Domincan Republic it really looks like that even minor pitchers have his number. Additionally his swing looked ugly and he only hit groundballs and pop ups.

@IowaCubs: You snoop! That was in November and I said in the opening paragraph I was winging it. If it’s any consolation for my flimflammery, I wouldn’t take Ortiz now before the 8th round in a 12 team league.

on other redsox note’s Mike Lowell aperantley looked terrible in his first spring training at bats. and what a surprise clay bucholtz threw another no hitter against the Orioles in his three innings of work.

It’s pretty easy to avoid Ortiz where he’s going in the drafts that I’ve been a part of — somewhere around 50. I’ll leave him for the Sawx fan who just took Pedroia in the second and takes a late flier on Pedro.

I have to admit, though, that I felt a little fuzzy inside seeing Bernie playing the OF for PR in the WBC — that was until a defensive miscue cost them a run and he got gunned out at the plate in consecutive innings.

Fortunately, some dude in my league will draft him in Round 4. The BoSox recognition, the 54 HRs — just three seasons ago! — the temptation to craft some sort of redemption storyline about him. It will all be too much to resist!

This will be the same person who keeps guys like Scott Rolen alive and kicking in our draft every year.

@Baron Von Vulturewins: ya the mariners listed his name the wrong way when they first signed him then he got the twins to switch it to ortiz after he got shipped there. his full name is David Ortiz Arias

@IowaCubs: @Baron Von Vulturewins: OK, you guys spawned an idea: we need Grey to build a ghost site, call it something like “Roto-Expert Fantasy Studs Just Like Matthew Berry” where players like Ortiz, Rolen, and other yawnstipators are hyped to infinity and beyond.

Then we send all our league mates to the site (pinkie to the side of the mouth)…

There are always players who reach their mid 30s and just fall apart. Off the top of my head Mo Vaughn, Bernie Williams, Richie Sexson, Tino Martinez, Eric Karros, Frank Thomas, Albert Belle.

Some of those guys had resurgences like Thomas, well that’s it. For the most part these guys become average regulars that teams play because they are being paid millions and the ole adage ‘if you did it once you can do it again’. None of them however were startable in fantasy, and only were because they hit x many homers 2 years ago. Well they also had x many injuries in between.

If this was 2001 Papi could take the juice and have a late career resurgence, but oh well that’s not the case.

In 2002 Bernie batted .333, in 2003 he batted .263 and was never worthy of being on a fantasy team again really. in 2007 Ortiz batted .332, last year .264. I don’t think any of us would be surprised if Ortiz had a Thomas like random resurgence if he’s healthy. But that’s only worth the risk if he falls on your lap, the odds aren’t in his favor, sorry Bill Simmons.

@zorob: If I’m trying to win this year I think I’d pass (assuming you are trading Sabathia). Only having Upton and Price for an extra year doesn’t seem like they’d reach their potential. Maybe Price cause pitchers peak earlier, but I doubt Upton. If you could keep those guys for more than just the next two years I’d probably do it, unless of course I thought I had a great chance to win. If you are trading for Sabathia than I’d definitely go for the win.

Just to play devil’s advocate here, if you project his counting stats last year (in a year he wasn”t right the whole year) I think you get close to 30/110. I think he feels comfortable with the wrist now, and is a lock for 110 RBI’s in that lineup. I think you’ll see something like .285 33HR 115 RBI 100R, not far off from someone like an Adrian Gonzalez last year which would wind up around 25-30 on a player rater..

Maybe I’m biased because I have 2 UT spots in my league, so not as much as a handcuff, but I think he makes for a steal in the 4th round.

Somebody’s gotta stick up for Papi right here, so I’ll do it. The Vaughn comparison is a popular one, and the body type is certainly relevant. But past results do not guarantee future outcomes, my friends. Vaughn’s twilight was ushered in by a degenerative arthritic condition, which Papi don’t have. Mo also never slugged .600, which Papi did 4 years in a row until that streak snapped last year.

Now, a wrist injury is always trouble, I agree about that. And when Papi breaks down, he’s probably gonna break down hard. So anyone who’s taking Ortiz in the 3rd or 4th round of their draft deserves what he gets. But if you’ve watched Papi in Spring Training before he hasn’t looked any worse this year than he has been in the past. He cleaned out an inside fastball pretty sweetly in the DR’s embarassing loss tonight. He actually looks like he’s in pretty good shape overall. When he plays this year he’s good for a .285/.380/.560 line, easy. If you play head-to-head there will be weeks he’ll carry your team to victory. He’s a great hitter and, according to the Eyechart, a baaaad man. It’d be a mistake to forget that.

If it’s suddenly the 6th or 7th round and he’s still kicking around, pick him up. The DH “clog” is not as terrible as everyone seems to think if the risk is potential injury instead of potential suck. Drafting Hafner is one thing, but you’re dealing with an elite offensive talent in Ortiz. When he’s healthy he’ll put up better numbers than any other schmohawk you’d otherwise be starting at DH. And when he’s not healthy, start that any other schmohawk and hope the dropoff in production in your Util hole ain’t too severe.

@johnson: You ain’t much if you ain’t Dutch. I’m more impressed by the lanky lefty on Team Cuba hitting 99 on the gun. Get doode an agent and some floaties and he could make mucho dinero in the states.

@Garrett: 2 utility spots changes matters for a team, but I don’t see him as a steal in the 4th round. He’s not that far off from Jim Thome numbers that can be had in the 12th round.

@Tarasco’sSecretStash: I agree that a potential injury risk isn’t as bad clogging a DH spot as a potential suck, but if an injury lingers it could cause a suck. Though, in the end, I can’t argue with someone taking him in the 7th round. I wouldn’t, but it’s fair value at that point.

Oh Great and Hairy Grey…(Points League) what do you think of Danks as my SP3 or 4? Also, Drew worth snagging in the 4th followed by Alexei in the 5th? (It’s a keeper league and the obvious names are being kept)

I never understood how he put up big numbers to begin with. Ortiz stands so far away from the plate and anytime I saw him bat the pitcher just kept the ball away from him and he would try to pull it anyways and popped up or grounded out into the shift. But there’s a Red Sox fan in every league it seems like, so someone will always take Ortiz in the 2nd rd.

bpasinko – Throughout baseball history, MOST ballplayers rapidly declined after reaching their mid-30’s. Maybe the difference with most of these guys is that they never used, or stopped using steroids. As for Bernie Williams, perhaps he was a Latin 33. Despite his regular season decline, he continued to produce in post season play; in fact, IMO, Bernie was one of the best clutch hitters I have ever seen. In the 2004 ALCS playoffs against the Bosox – the Yankees historic collapse – Bernie hit .306 with 2 dingers and 10 RBI’s. In 2003, the year you note as the beginning of Bernies collapse, he had 21 post-season hits, 2 dingers and 10 RBI. In other words, he was the anti-A-ROD. Bernie is attempting a comeback this year playing in the WBC, and I would bet that he could still produce as a pinch hitter, especially in clutch situations.

Thanks Grey, how about ranking the following (points league): Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, James Shields, Felix Hernandez. I have two picks in the second round of my keeper league and looking to snag two of them. Think just 2009 though, not as keeper options.

I wonder how all the time Ortiz has not spent fielding will effect his inevitable downward trend. Could it buy him some increased longevity? I also think if you project ortiz’s stats for this year by his numbers then .285 with 35 hrs and 110 rbi is more accurate than most would think. How much you knock that down for his manboobs is still in the subjective area of sabermetric research.