Saturday, March 1, 2014

My FINAL Oscar Predictions...and the Oscar Poll Results

Here they are lads and lassies, my final, set-in-stone, Oscar predictions. There are 24 categories, and my goal is to get twenty or more correct. My record is nineteen, which I did on three separate occasions, so twenty is indeed the goal. Wish me luck...or don't...no skin off my nose. So, without further ado, here we go...

Best Picture

will win: Gravity

should win: American Hustle

could surprise: Really, this is a three way race for the first time in a long time, and any of Hustle, Gravity, or 12 Years a Slave could realistically win here. 12 Years A Slave is probably the more reasonable choice, since it is the so-called important film in the bunch, and therefore holds a lot of weight with potential Oscar voters, but Gravity is the kind of movie's movie, a spectacle that also wins a lot. Then again, American Hustle, admittedly the third party in the otherwise two-way race for gold, could sneak in there (and it would have my vote) and take it all. But, in the end, I am going the way of Gravity having a big big night. But if you want a real surprise then let's say Philomena.

Best Director

will win: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity

should win: David O. Russell for American Hustle

could surprise: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave

Best Actor

will win: Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

should win: Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club

could surprise: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress

will win: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine

should win: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine

could surprise: Sandra Bullock in Gravity

Best Supporting Actor

will win: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

should win: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

could surprise: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress

will win: Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave

should win: Julia Roberts in August: Osage County

could surprise: Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

Best Original Screenplay

will win: American Hustle

should win: American Hustle

could surprise: Her or Blue Jasmine

Best Adapted Screenplay

will win: 12 Years A Slave

should win: Before Midnight

could surprise: Before Midnight, or maybe The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Film

will win: Frozen

should win: Earnest & Celestine

could surprise: The Wind Rises

Best Foreign-Language Film

will win: The Great Beauty

should win: The Great Beauty

could surprise: The Hunt or The Broken Circle Breakdown

Best Documentary Feature

will win: 20 Feet From Stardom

should win: The Act of Killing

could surprise: The Act of Killing

Best Cinematography

will win: Gravity

should win: The Grandmaster

could surprise: Prisoners

Best Production Design

will win: The Great Gatsby

should win: American Hustle

could surprise: Gravity (not that it would be a surprise, really)

Best Film Editing

will win: Captain Phillips

should win: American Hustle

could surprise: Gravity (not that it would be a surprise, either)

Best Costume Design

will win: American Hustle

should win: American Hustle

could surprise: The Great Gatsby

Best Make-Up and Hair Design

will win: Dallas Buyers Club

should win: Dallas Buyers Club

could surprise: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Best Original Score

will win: Gravity

should win: Her

could surprise: Her

Best Original Song

will win: Let it Go from Frozen

should win: The Moon Song from Her

could surprise: Ordinary Love from Mandela

Best Sound Mixing

will win: Gravity

should win: Gravity

could surprise: Inside Llewyn Davis (but doubtful)

Best Sound Editing

will win: Gravity

should win: Gravity

could surprise: All is Lost (but doubtful)

Best Visual Effects

will win: Gravity

should win: Gravity

could surprise: Star Trek Into Darkness (but doubtful)

Best Animated Short Film

will win: Get A Horse

should win: Get A Horse

could surprise: Feral! or Mr. Hublot

Best Live Action Short Film:

will win: Helium

should win: The Voorman Problem

could surprise: The Voorman Problem

Best Documentary Short Subject:

will win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

should win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

could surprise: Prison Terminal

So, basically, after flip-flopping back and forth for the last month or so, I have come to the conclusion that Gravity is going to have a big night, taking home seven Oscars. If it pulls off a win in something like Editing or Production Design as well, it could be the biggest winner in over a decade. Of course 12 Years A Slave, or even American Hustle (my personal vote) could end up on top, but as is, I have them each winning two. Really though, most categories are locks, with only the screenplays, supporting actress, and maybe costumes and editing, and of course, best picture, up in the air. That said, I am pretty confident I will get at least 18 correct, with a strong possibility of a record tying nineteenth, and maybe even a record setting twentieth. Let's not get cocky though. We'll just wait and see what happens. So there.

And while we're on the subject of The Oscars, let's take a look at the results of this year's Oscar poll.

Well kids, it looks like our annual Oscar poll has come to a close (duh!), and that means we have ourselves a goddamn winner. But before we get to all that, howzabout a little background on the poll. This is the third year I have done this poll on my blog (the first two being at my now mostly defunct all film site, The Most Beautiful Fraud in the World), but this is the first time it has actually come down to the wire. In the first year of the poll, The Tree of Life won with a whopping 43% of the vote, well over Hugo's second place finish of just 16%. Last year, Django Unchained won with 22% of the vote over Amour's 18%, so it was a bit closer. Now this year, it got even closer. Just a 2% margin separating first and second place. In the end it was American Hustle (my choice btw) beating out 12 Years a Slave, 22% to 20%. But, even though it was close, Hustle never gave up its lead, keeping on top from day one, all the way through to the end. Many claim this is the actual Oscar race as well, as this is the first year in a long time where the big winner was not already a foregone conclusion. But then there could be a surprise (although not that much of one) winner in the form of our third place finisher. Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity, the possible Oscar spoiler Sunday night, came in with the bronze medal in our poll, garnering 16% of the vote, just a bit more than The Wolf of Wall Street's 13%. After this, we get Nebraska at 10%, Her with 8%, Dallas Buyers Club with 6%, Philomena at 4%, and poor little Captain Phillips, grabbing just 3 measly votes, and coming in at a mere 2%. So there ya have it sports fans, the results of this year's Oscar poll.

Well, that's it gang. I'll have my Oscar wrap-up on Monday. See ya 'round the web.

2 comments:

I'm goin' with American Hustle to win the big one. It probably won't but ya never know. Acting, I'm goin' with McConaughey, Streep, Leto, and J-Law. Her and Midnight for screenplays, and Cuaron for director. There ya go. Sorry I won't be there for your annual Oscar soiree this year, but I'm in Portland right now, stayin' with an old friend from the road. Maybe I'll make it back to Harrisburg someday before I die. Take care, man. Say hallo hallo to the wife.

So I went 19 for 24 (again) but ended up picking the wrong BP. Only the second time I've done that (picked Brokeback Mountain over Crash in '05). But it was a fun fun fun evening, without any of the pressure of throwing the perfect Oscar party. Just me, Amy , and our friend Anna. Even got to live tweet the whole shebang. That was extra fun. Definitely gonna do that again.