If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

I think a lot of people on this site are overrating how much losing Matsui and Sheff hurt this team. Yes, pretty much no one we have or will found is going to hit as well as them. That said, while the point of baseball is to end the game with more runs than your opponent, there are a multitude of ways to do that. One of those ways is to limit the other team's offense. This is a task that is much more easily handled with a good defense. Melky in LF and whoever in RF is a HUGE improvement defensively for this team. Depending on what numbers or scout observations you believe in, that improvement actually offsets a lot of the offensive loss. That, to me, is why this team hasn't gone into a tailspin. Matsui and Sheff, as great the hitters they were, were also horrific defenders and now we have good ones. Improved team defense is also part of why this team's pitchers as a whole are doing well in terms of RA and ERA rankings, despite the fact that the media wants to act like we give up runs left and right. That is all for now.

"I love Hughes, really I'm not kidding here, I am in love with him, I'm a straight male and I don't even know what he looks like, but I am in love."-JeterRodriguezSheff

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Yes, defense is extremely important in winning games. However, where these players hurt the team is when the poor pitching staff the Yanks have can't make up for the lack of run production. Pitching is the key , of course, to success but that timely hittiing can't be overlooked!

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

I think a lot of people on this site are overrating how much losing Matsui and Sheff hurt this team. Yes, pretty much no one we have or will found is going to hit as well as them. That said, while the point of baseball is to end the game with more runs than your opponent, there are a multitude of ways to do that. One of those ways is to limit the other team's offense. This is a task that is much more easily handled with a good defense. Melky in LF and whoever in RF is a HUGE improvement defensively for this team. Depending on what numbers or scout observations you believe in, that improvement actually offsets a lot of the offensive loss. That, to me, is why this team hasn't gone into a tailspin. Matsui and Sheff, as great the hitters they were, were also horrific defenders and now we have good ones. Improved team defense is also part of why this team's pitchers as a whole are doing well in terms of RA and ERA rankings, despite the fact that the media wants to act like we give up runs left and right. That is all for now.

I wouldnt say a huge upgrade in defense but there OF defense is better now than with them.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

I think a lot of people on this site are overrating how much losing Matsui and Sheff hurt this team. Yes, pretty much no one we have or will found is going to hit as well as them. That said, while the point of baseball is to end the game with more runs than your opponent, there are a multitude of ways to do that. One of those ways is to limit the other team's offense. This is a task that is much more easily handled with a good defense. Melky in LF and whoever in RF is a HUGE improvement defensively for this team. Depending on what numbers or scout observations you believe in, that improvement actually offsets a lot of the offensive loss. That, to me, is why this team hasn't gone into a tailspin. Matsui and Sheff, as great the hitters they were, were also horrific defenders and now we have good ones. Improved team defense is also part of why this team's pitchers as a whole are doing well in terms of RA and ERA rankings, despite the fact that the media wants to act like we give up runs left and right. That is all for now.

Im Sorry but defense isnt going to make up for about 70 home runs and 260 rbis

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by JeterRodriguezSheff

Im Sorry but defense isnt going to make up for about 70 home runs and 260 rbis

I'm also not a fan of this argument. It's not as simple as posting the HR and RBI numbers you thought those guys would get. You have to look at their actual reasonably expected offensive productivity and subtract the productivity of their replacements and then look at their expected defensive contribution and subtract that of their replacements. If I weren't at work right now, I'd do the math, but I don't think it's as huge a difference as it would seem when one just talks about "70 HR and 260 RBI"

"I love Hughes, really I'm not kidding here, I am in love with him, I'm a straight male and I don't even know what he looks like, but I am in love."-JeterRodriguezSheff

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

I'm also not a fan of this argument. It's not as simple as posting the HR and RBI numbers you thought those guys would get. You have to look at their actual reasonably expected offensive productivity and subtract the productivity of their replacements and then look at their expected defensive contribution and subtract that of their replacements. If I weren't at work right now, I'd do the math, but I don't think it's as huge a difference as it would seem when one just talks about "70 HR and 260 RBI"

Don't forget to also add or subtract in the productivity of the replacement's replacement

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

I'm also not a fan of this argument. It's not as simple as posting the HR and RBI numbers you thought those guys would get. You have to look at their actual reasonably expected offensive productivity and subtract the productivity of their replacements and then look at their expected defensive contribution and subtract that of their replacements. If I weren't at work right now, I'd do the math, but I don't think it's as huge a difference as it would seem when one just talks about "70 HR and 260 RBI"

Melky and Bernie arent coming anywhere close

Melky is projected for 3 homers and 58 rbi, Bernie is projected for 15 and 81. So we are losing 52 homers and 139 rbi, 2 dominating hitters who usually seem to come through in big situations and make the rest of the line up better. The defense you get in left is great, but now the right field defense is even worse. That and you have to look at the intimination factor, do you think Bernie and Melky strike fear into the hearts of pitchers like Matsui and Sheff do?

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by JeterRodriguezSheff

Melky and Bernie arent coming anywhere close

Melky is projected for 3 homers and 58 rbi, Bernie is projected for 15 and 81. So we are losing 52 homers and 139 rbi, 2 dominating hitters who usually seem to come through in big situations and make the rest of the line up better. The defense you get in left is great, but now the right field defense is even worse. That and you have to look at the intimination factor, do you think Bernie and Melky strike fear into the hearts of pitchers like Matsui and Sheff do?

On the season, in terms of wins, how many do you think we've lost due to the difference in Sheff and Matsui to Melky and Bernie?

"I love Hughes, really I'm not kidding here, I am in love with him, I'm a straight male and I don't even know what he looks like, but I am in love."-JeterRodriguezSheff

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

I'm also not a fan of this argument. It's not as simple as posting the HR and RBI numbers you thought those guys would get. You have to look at their actual reasonably expected offensive productivity and subtract the productivity of their replacements and then look at their expected defensive contribution and subtract that of their replacements. If I weren't at work right now, I'd do the math, but I don't think it's as huge a difference as it would seem when one just talks about "70 HR and 260 RBI"

How would you actually quantify the difference in defense. Yes, Melky is an improvement but how much so? With Bernie playing right as often as he is, I am not sure it is an improvement, I actually think I'd rather have Sheffield and his -12 UZR (2005). I don't think it as simple as posting what we lost offensively but I really don't think we gained as much as you think defensively...

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

I agree that defensive improvement must be factored in, but, in addition to the numbers that Sheff and Matsui put up, one must also factor in the positive effect that their presence in the line-up would have on Giambi, Alex, Jeter etc. Other Yankee hitters are more productive when the opposition has to consider a line-up that includes our two injured corner outfielders.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Generally, I agree with the post that the "tailspin" hasn't occured, and that we're not as bad off as you would think. However, I am curious about the team record before Matsui went on the DL, the team record from that point until Sheff went on the DL (the one he's on now), and the team record since then.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

On the season, in terms of wins, how many do you think we've lost due to the difference in Sheff and Matsui to Melky and Bernie?

As of 6/15, The Hardball Times says that Sheff and Matsui, in the small portion of the season that they played, had accumulated more total 2006 Win Shares than Williams and Cabrera have in all the time that they have served as their replacements. Since Win Shares are a cumulative stat, and include a defensive metric, I think that this serves as a decent start to looking at the point posed by this thread.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by 27IsNext

Sheff is an elite hitter, Matsui a very good one. Lets not kid ourselves into thinking their lack of presence in the lineup isnt preventing us from scoring a lot of runs.

Exactly. I know the defense improvement helps, and you can't always depend on the long ball, but just having those two guys in the lineup changes the way the whole team is pitched to. It's easier to pitch around Giambi and ARod, but impossible to ignore Sheff, Giambi, ARod, Matsui all batting back to back.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by JeterRodriguezSheff

Melky and Bernie arent coming anywhere close

Melky is projected for 3 homers and 58 rbi, Bernie is projected for 15 and 81. So we are losing 52 homers and 139 rbi, 2 dominating hitters who usually seem to come through in big situations and make the rest of the line up better. The defense you get in left is great, but now the right field defense is even worse. That and you have to look at the intimination factor, do you think Bernie and Melky strike fear into the hearts of pitchers like Matsui and Sheff do?

First off, Sheff and Matsui are more like 60 and 240, combined. So that drops the difference to 42 HRs and 119 RBIs. In addition, Melky will hit more HRs as time goes on. Bernie usually plays well in the summer (them old bones need the hot weather). So I think the offensive production will be even closer.

Melky is a HUGH upgrade over Matsui in LF. Not even in the same ballpark. Matsui played average in 2003, his first season in the USA, but has slid noticeably each of the last couple of seasons. His range seems to have fallen, and his ability to catch the ball has shown an alarming decline rate over time. His arm is vaerage to below average. Melky is ahead of him here.

Bernie is not as bad as I was afraid he would be in RF. He does not have Sheff's throwing arm, but he is not that far off. He is most definately throwing better then he has been the past couple of seasons. His range is well ahead of his previous showing in CF the past few years. He is at least equal, if not a bit better then Sheff overall in RF. This is a bit of a knock on Sheff, as he gets more praise for his OF play then he deserves.

One last thing. If Randy was Randy all season long, this would not even be an issue, as we would be 2-4 games up on Boston right now. The Yankees problems are still in teh rotation. Now that Wang has seemingly established himself, Moose has dropped off the planet. Chacon has been worse then horrible since his return from the DL. And right, while he has had a few solid starts, never gets to the 6th. This is killing the pen, and this is a bigger issue then the loss of Sheff and matsui.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

It is. Let's not pretend hitting is the only aspect to consider.

This is a very rudimentary way to look at this topic, but here goes:

If the difference in projected offensive production between Matsui/Sheffield and Melky/Bernie is 139 runs, as someone posted earlier, then the improvement in defense between the two pairs of players would need to result in a drop in ERA for our pitching staff of around 0.86 in order to offset the impact of the loss of offense from our usual OF starters.

It would have to exceed that number for our current situation to be considered better than our previous one.

I am sure there are flaws to this approach, and there are probably other variables that need to be considered to do a truly accurate analysis, but hopefully you get the idea.

I would be shocked to learn that our pitching staff's ERA has improved by almost a full run a game since the loss of Matsui and Sheffield.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

I am going to agree that the defensive upgrade is helpful from that side of the ball....and that part of me enjoys watching a team like this as opposed to one that can't catch a ball.

However....there's simply no way that Cabrera and Bernie come anywhere close to Matsui and Sheffield in terms of helping create wins. There is simply too much offense being lost, going from two excellent bats to two bats who aren't going to hurt you.

Add the fact that Bernie is not a good RF. How do you quantify teams going first to third at will on him- even on rockets hit right at him- or his never having the ability to cut a run off? Teams run at will on him, taking bases thast wouldn't be even attempted with any other OF. That makes him a worse RF than Sheff, since both of them also have the tendency to not get to balls they should.

So the defensive metric really falls to Cabrera over Matsui. Matsui is not a good LF- but he's not so bad, and Cabrera is not so good, that you can even begin to make a case that the Yankees may be better off here.

It's all well and good to say that you enjoy watching a team that can play a little D from time to time. But don't stretch it past the point of reality to say that the Yanks are better off without two extremely productive bats in their lineup. They're not.

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Originally Posted by NJASDJDH

I think a lot of people on this site are overrating how much losing Matsui and Sheff hurt this team. Yes, pretty much no one we have or will found is going to hit as well as them. That said, while the point of baseball is to end the game with more runs than your opponent, there are a multitude of ways to do that. One of those ways is to limit the other team's offense. This is a task that is much more easily handled with a good defense. Melky in LF and whoever in RF is a HUGE improvement defensively for this team. Depending on what numbers or scout observations you believe in, that improvement actually offsets a lot of the offensive loss. That, to me, is why this team hasn't gone into a tailspin. Matsui and Sheff, as great the hitters they were, were also horrific defenders and now we have good ones. Improved team defense is also part of why this team's pitchers as a whole are doing well in terms of RA and ERA rankings, despite the fact that the media wants to act like we give up runs left and right. That is all for now.

Anyone care to post how Melky and Bernie's win shares are no where near what Matsui and Sheffield would post?

Also I'll go so far as to say that Melky's + defense in LF and cancelled out by Bernie's - defense

Re: Perspective on Sheff and Matsui

Games lost due to the starters inability to be consistent, or go deep in games, thereby killing the pen, 4 to 6, at least.

I disagree strongly here. I agree about your stating the pitching has hurt, but I think you are underestimating the los of Sheff and Zilla.

Someone here posted stats to back up that throughout the year, we have lost 139 runs above replacement level because of their injuries. Lets go with that..
Now we have seen some better defense in LF for sure, but RF has been a lot of Bernie who does not give a better defensive advantage than Sheff. How many runs have been saved by the defensive upgrade??
I have watched most games and a few plays do come to mind, like Melky's catch on Manny's surefire HR ball. But while these make the highlights, they are not happening every day. I would say we would have saved 30-40 runs over a whole year with this defensive alighment over what we had originally. So that still leaves us short about 100 runs over a full season. That is more than half a run per game. In other words, to make up for their loss, our ERA would have to go down a half a run as a team, something we'd all praise the lord above if it were to happen.

I have not even factored in that their presence means a longer lineup, shorter outings for starting pitchers against us because of deeper pitch counts, meaning more of a look at a soft middle relief underbelly. More of a quick strike offense, more of an ability to come from behind quickly or put close games out of reach just as quickly.
I admire what Melky and Bernie have given us, but to say we have only lost 0-2 games because of Matsui and Sheff being out??
No way I agree, I think it is more in the 5-7 range at least!