(*) Casual Vacancies

Former Communications Minister Richard Alston retired in February 2004 to be replaced by Mitch Fifield.

(+) Retiring Senators

Senator Tsebin Tschen will not be contesting to the 2004 election. However, his term will not finish until 30 June 2005.

Assessment

The question in Victoria is whether the state will split three Labor - three Coalition as it did in 1993 and 1998, or whether the Greens will win the final seat, as the Democrats did in 1996 and 2001. Victoria is the state where traditionally the minor party vote is lowest.

If for instance, one of the major parties polls around 43% and the other 39-40%, the lack of other minor party votes may result in the Greens not being able to garner enough preferences to win. However, the higher the minor party vote, or the lower the vote for the second major party, the greater the chances of the Greens winning the final spot. If the Greens do win a spot, the likelihood is that Labor's third candidate would be defeated.

On the Coalition ticket, former MHR for Ballarat Michael Ronaldson will enter the Senate, and the National Party's Julian McGauran will be returned. Holding the Coalition's seat of death is its third candidate, sitting Senator Judith Troeth.

On the Labor side, Senators Kim Carr and Stephen Conroy are certain of election, but their colleague Senator Jacinta Collins sits in the dangerous third spot.

With the decline of the Democrats, the chances of 20 year-old Jess Healey winning election are remote, with the Greens David Risstrom having a strong chance of election, assuming the vote for either Labor or the Coalition falls short of three quotas.

2001 Result

Party group

Votes

%

Swing

Quotas

Liberal / National Party (3 elected)

1,155,854

39.61

+1.73

2.77

Labor Party (2 elected)

1,073,667

36.79

-3.77

2.58

Australian Democrats (1 elected)

228,272

7.82

-2.02

0.55

The Greens

174,817

5.99

+3.50

0.42

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

71,605

2.45

-1.66

0.17

Liberals For Forests

70,138

2.40

+2.40

0.17

Democratic Labor Party

66,551

2.28

+1.23

0.16

Phil Cleary Australia

36,142

1.24

+1.24

0.09

Christian Democratic Party

17,162

0.59

+0.10

0.04

Others (8 groups + ungrouped)

24,059

0.82

-2.75

0.06

Formal

2,918,267

94.39

-1.83

Informal

173,592

5.61

+1.83

Total Votes and Turnout

3,091.859

95.58

-0.31

Enrolment

3,234,874

Quota

416,896

1998 Result

Party group

Votes

%

Swing

Quotas

Labor Party (3 elected)

1,153,100

40.56

+0.76

2.84

Liberal/National Party (3 elected)

1,076,844

37.87

-3.56

2.65

Australian Democrats

279,806

9.84

-1.03

0.69

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

117,048

4.12

+4.12

0.29

The Greens

70,872

2.49

+2.49

0.17

Australian Shooters Party

34,434

1.21

+0.50

0.08

Democratic Labor Party

29,893

1.05

-0.26

0.07

Unity

20,603

0.72

+0.72

0.05

Christian Democratic Party

13,881

0.49

-0.11

0.03

Others (11 groups + ungrouped)

46,679

1.64

-3.64

0.11

Formal

2,843,160

96.22

-0.23

Informal

111,686

3.78

+0.23

Total Votes and Turnout

2,954,846

95.89

-0.64

Enrolment

3,081,632

Quota

406,166

Past Results

Summary of Past Elections

Election

Percentage of Vote

Seats Won

Year (Seats)

ALP

LNP

DEM

GRN

ONP

OTH

ALP

LNP

DEM

1977 (5)

34.2

41.9

16.2

..

..

7.7

2

2

1

1980 (5)

43.0

40.8

11.3

..

..

4.9

2

2

1

1983 (10)

46.5

38.2

12.0

..

..

3.3

5

4

1

1984 (7)

44.1

38.2

6.9

..

..

10.8

3

3

1

1987 (12)

44.0

41.3

8.5

..

..

6.2

5

6

1

1990 (6)

36.4

44.5

14.2

1.6

..

3.3

2

3

1

1993 (6)

45.0

44.1

4.0

1.2

..

5.7

3

3

..

1996 (6)

39.8

41.4

10.9

2.9

..

5.0

2

3

1

1998 (6)

40.5

37.9

9.8

2.5

4.1

5.2

3

3

..

2001 (6)

36.8

39.6

7.8

6.0

2.5

7.3

2

3

1

Notes: The Liberal and National Parties ran separate tickets at the 1984 and 1987 elections. The National Party vote was 4.0% in 1984 and 5.7% in 1987.