I think the chances of military conflict with Iran in the next two years are better than 50%. Students stormed the UK embassy in Iran. London is kicking the Iranians out of their embassy in London. Israel blew up an Iranian missile base a couple weeks ago. Israel will not let Iran get a nuke. Obama needs to distract the public from our terrible economy with a foreign crisis. The implications of Iranian oil coming off the worldwide markets would be devastating. China would not be happy since they get 10% of their oil from Iran. The world is already on the verge of collapse and a surge in oil prices would create a worldwide depression. This Fourth Turning sure is interesting.

Funds, refiners ponder oil Armageddon: war on Iran

Most political analysts and oil traders say the probability of military action is low, but they caution the risks of such an event have risen as the West and Israel grow increasingly alarmed by signs that Tehran is building nuclear weapons.

That has Chinese refiners drawing up new contingency plans, hedge funds taking out options on $170 crude, and energy experts scrambling to determine how a disruption in Iran’s oil supply — however remote the possibility — would impact world markets.

With production of about 3.5 million barrels per day, Iran supplies 2.5 percent of the world’s oil.

“I think the market has paid too little attention to the possibility of an attack on Iran. It’s still an unlikely event, but more likely than oil traders have been expecting,” says Bob McNally, once a White House energy advisor and now head of consultancy Rapidan Group.

Rising tensions were clear this week as Iranian protesters stormed two British diplomatic missions in Tehran in response to sanctions, smashing windows and burning the British flag.

The attacks prompted condemnation from London, Washington and the United Nations. Iran warned of “instability in global security.”

While traders in Europe prepare for a possible EU boycott of imports from Iran, mounting evidence elsewhere points to long-odds preparation for an even more severe outcome.

In Beijing, the foreign ministry has asked at least one major Iranian crude oil importer to review its contingency planning in case Iranian shipments stop.

In India, refiners are leafing through an unpublished report produced in March to look at fall-back options in the event of a major disruption.

And the International Energy Agency, the club of industrialised nations founded after the Arab oil embargo that coordinated the release of emergency oil stocks during Libya’s civil war, last week circulated to member countries an updated four-page factsheet detailing Iran’s oil industry and trade.

The document, not made public but obtained by Reuters, lists the vital statistics of Iran’s oil sector, including destinations by country. Two-thirds of its exports are shipped to China, India, Japan and South Korea; a fifth goes to the European Union.

Hedge funds, particularly those with a global macro-economic bias, have taken note, and are buying deep out-of-the-money call options that could pay off big if prices surge, senior market sources at two major banks said.

Open interest in $130 and $150 December 2012 options for U.S. crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by over 20 percent last week. Interest in the $170 call more than doubled to over 11,000 lots, or 11 million barrels. Still more traded over-the-counter, sources say.

McNally says that oil prices could surge as high as $175 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz — conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil supply, including all of Iran’s exports — is shut in.

IAEA CITES “CREDIBLE” INFORMATION

This month’s speculation of an attack on Iran is the most intense since 2007, when reports showing that Iran had not halted uranium enrichment work fuelled speculation that President George W. Bush could launch some kind of action during his last year in office. Those fears helped fuel a 36 percent rise in oil prices in the second half of the year.

The latest anxiety was set off by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s November 8 report citing “credible” information that Iran had worked on designing an atomic bomb. A new round of sanctions followed, including the possibility that Europe could follow the United States in banning imports.

That alone would roil markets, but ultimately would likely just drive discounted crude sales to other consumers like China.

A more alarming — if more remote — possibility would be an attack by Israel, which has grown increasingly alarmed by the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on November 19 that it was a matter of months, not years, before it would be too late to stop Tehran.

In that context, every tremor has been unnerving for markets. Some experts say an explosion at an Iranian military base earlier in the month was the work of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. An unusually large tender by Israel’s main electricity supplier to buy distillate fuel raised eyebrows, although it was blamed on a shortage of natural gas imports.

REFINERS BRACE

No country has more reason to be concerned than China, which now gets one-tenth of its crude imports from Iran. Shipments have risen a third this year to 547,000 barrels per day as other countries including Japan reduce their dependence. Sinopec, Asia’s top refiner, is the world’s largest Iranian crude buyer.

The Foreign Ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission, which effectively oversees the oil sector, have asked companies that import the crude to prepare contingency plans for a major disruption in supply, a source with a state-owned company told Reuters.

The precautionary measure preceded the latest geopolitical angst and is broadly in line with Beijing’s growing concern over its dependence on imported energy. Earlier this year it issued a notice for firms to prepare for disruptions from Yemen.

But the focus has sharpened recently, the source said.

“The plan is not particularly for the tension this time, but it seems the government is paying exceptionally great attention to it this time,” said the source on condition of anonymity.

In India, which gets 12 percent of its imports from Iran, refiners had a potential preview of coming events when the country’s central bank scrapped a clearing house system last December, forcing refiners to scramble to arrange other means of payment in order to keep crude shipments flowing.

That incident — in addition to the Arab Spring uprising and the Japanese earthquake — prompted the government to document a brief but broad strategy for handling major disruptions.

The document, which has not been reported in detail, says that India could sustain fuel supplies to the market in the event of an import stoppage for about 30 days thanks to domestic storage, and would turn to unconventional and heavier imported crude as a fall-back.

It also urged the country’s state-owned refiners to work on developing domestic storage facilities for major OPEC suppliers, consider hiring supertankers to use as floating storage and to sign term deals to price crude on a delivered basis, a copy of the document seen by Reuters shows.

The government has not tasked refiners with additional preparations this month, industry sources say. And in any event, there’s not much they could do.

“If they cut supplies we will be left with no option than to buy from the spot market or from other Middle East suppliers,” said a senior official with state-run MRPL, Iran’s top India client.

To be sure, there’s only so much any refiner can do. The gap left by Iran will trigger a frenzy of buying on the spot market for substitute barrels, likely leading the IEA to release emergency reserves, as it did following the civil war in Libya, or other countries like Saudi Arabia to step into the breach.

“We probably need to do this ASAP but are putting our heads in the sand so far,” said one oil trader in Europe.

For refiners like Italy’s Eni (ENI.MI) and Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT), the most pressing issue is not necessarily an unexpected outage but an import boycott imposed by their government. France has won limited support for such an embargo, but faces resistance from some nations that fear it could inflict more economic damage.

CHEAP PUNTS

Unlike in 2007, there’s not yet much evidence that a significant geopolitical risk premium is being factored into prices.

European benchmark Brent crude oil has rallied 4 percent in the past two days, partly due to accelerating discussion of a Europen boycott as well as Tuesday’s unrest in Tehran, during which protesters stormed two British diplomatic compounds.

But it is also down 4 percent since the IAEA’s November 8 report. Analysts say that it’s impossible to extract any Iran-specific pricing from a host of other recently supportive factors, including new hope to end Europe’s debt crisis, strong global distillate demand and upbeat U.S. consumer data.

“I don’t think there’s very much evidence (of an Iran premium),” says Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup and a former State Department energy policy adviser.

And he does not see an attack as likely: “I think it’s a low probability event. Maybe higher than a year ago, but still low.”

But that is not stopping some from looking ahead. Oil prices would likely spike to at least $140 a barrel if Israel attacked Iran, according to the most benign of four scenarios put forward this week by Greg Sharenow, a portfolio manager at bond house PIMCO and a former Goldman Sachs oil trader.

He refused to predict a limit for prices under the most extreme “Doomsday” scenario in which disruptions spread beyond Iran and the Straits of Hormuz is blocked.

With that in mind, hedge funds are buying cheap options in a punt on an extreme outage. For about $1,500 per contract, a buyer can get the right to deliver a December 2012 futures contract at $150 a barrel; even if prices do not rise that high, the value of the options contract could increase tenfold.

The spark of demand for upside price protection this month is an abrupt reversal from most of this year, when the bias was toward puts that would hedge the risk of economic calamity.

“The kind of put skew we were seeing in the last three to six months was remarkable with people preparing for disaster – the Planet of the Apes trade, another massive market crash,” says Chris Thorpe, executive director of global energy derivatives at INTL FC Stone.

“Only in the last three or four weeks has there been increased call buying.”

Options remain relatively costly compared to earlier in the year, with implied volatility — a measure of option cost — of 43 percent above this year’s average of just below 35 percent, the CBOE Oil Volatility index shows.

But nonetheless it’s clear that for some funds the potential upside of violence in Iran means that interest is increasing.

Says Thorpe: “It’s at the back of people’s minds.”

42 Comments

DaveP says:

But, won’t this speed up approval of the pipeline from Alberta? I’m sure Balack Obama is right on this.

It is interesting. If the U.S. doesn’t get into Iran and seize the oil, then they risk China coming in and placing military units for Iran’s protection and protection of their oil. They make it up to be about the nukes. Yea, right. We must beat China to the punch, in every single geographical location in the world.

We’re doing it in Australia, we need to invade South America, especially Venezuela and Brazil. We need to invade Cuba, not for democracy, but to get their off-shore oil. We need the CIA to orchestrate a coup in Saudi Arabia, where we take power. It all makes sense now, why we have such a massive military and spend so much, we have so many places to take over in the world, especially now that the Chinese are vying for the same resources. Fuck the Chinese.

My beloved Indiana Hoosiers (6-0 !!) are playing NC State on the road. Hopefully we win, then the next game against Stetson (for students who want to major in hat making) is a gimme …. and we’ll be 8-0 when we play those toothless in-bred hillbillies from Kentsucky.

I have an agreement with a national company called SunRun to put solar on our roof for no money down. You don’t have to pay anything except a flat rate for the electricity it produces (which is below the current rate for Mass residents). SunRun owns the system.

SunRun is responsible for maintenance, insurance, liability, etc. All we have to do is buy the electricity below market rate. And if it produces more than we use, the meter runs backward and we get a credit.

In a normal society, yes. Stuckenhoops won’t be able to watch T.V. when the zombies invade his house. Yojimbo won’t have electricity when the zombies steal his solar panels. I won’t be alive after I run out of ammo.

Just watching the black friday videos makes me realize one thing, God is benevolent. I say this because he gives us little hints, warnings, previews of what is coming. As if you couldn’t tell what is coming already. I’ve noticed the breakdown of society quickening. It used to be simple things, like marriage becoming a sick joke to Welfare recipients, and then society at large. The stealing by those in power and entrusted with public assets. The gambling by people entrusted with money. The obesefication of our population.

And, recently, smaller things. People have no regard for traffic laws anymore. Have you noticed? people don’t stop at stop signs anymore, some don’t stop at stop lights anymore. People pull out if front of you if their car is bigger than yours, without regard to any accidents. Driving is based on laws and principles, and they are being largely ignored anymore. Small you say? I say the last vestiges of the collapse.

Soon, people will not feel obligated to pay for things, they will just start taking it. All the rules and laws will become meaningless, as they are at the top. If the politicians, banksters, corporations don’t have to follow laws, why the hell should I have to follow laws? Everything that runs our society is based on rules, laws, and trust, and it’s all about gone. I need to get more guns and ammo.

Well, I assume they will have to be forced to liquidate their assets (all their solar systems on the roofs), and another company will take them over. Won’t the new company have to honor the contract we signed (for 20 years)?

And if no one takes them over…doesn’t that mean that the $18,000 solar system they put on my roof will still be producing electricity, but I won’t have to pay them?

If the system becomes mine by possession, I will be happy to maintain it, since I will have been given a $18,000 system.

Admin, you tell me, what is the worst case scenario here? I don’t see it.

“Admin, you tell me, what is the worst case scenario here? I don’t see it.”

How about the grid goes down indefinitely, then solar panels will be worth their weight in gold, hence taken by force and arms. I realize I’m not admin. Sorry. Enjoy your cool solar panels. They weren’t made by Solyndra were they?

First SunRun gets all the incentives and rebates from the fed and state governments for installing a solar Photovoltaic system.

Then, SunRun can sell the SREC’s (some kind of solar credit that they can sell on the market every year, and is mandated by the feds).

Then I imagine they do some amortization and depreciation of their loan over 20 years.

We pay nothing up front, and only purchase the electricity produced from the system.

I imagine part of the money comes from utility companies that collect the charge on everyone’s electric bill for renewable energy purchases.

Also, the utilities would normally have to construct new power plants to add energy production to the grid, and these small solar units essentially do that in a diversified way multiplied many times over.

Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SRECs) or Solar Renewable Energy Credits are a form of Renewable Energy Certificate or “Green tag”. SRECs exist in states that have Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) legislation with specific requirements for solar energy, usually referred to as a “solar carve-out”. The additional income received from selling SRECs increases the economic value of a solar investment and assists with the financing of solar technology. In conjunction with state and federal incentives, solar system owners can recover their investment in solar by selling their SRECs through spot market sales or long-term sales, both described below.

Solar RPS requirements are meant to create a marketplace for SRECs and a dynamic incentive for the solar industry. Solar RPS requirements demand that energy suppliers or utilities procure a certain percentage of electricity from qualified solar renewable energy resources in a state. These Energy suppliers and/or utilities can meet solar RPS requirements by purchasing SRECs from homeowners and businesses who own solar systems and produce SRECs. Homeowners and businesses can then utilize the sale of the SRECs they generate to help finance their solar systems. SRECs can be sold a variety of ways, such as on the spot market, at auction, or by negotiating long-term contracts.

I don’t know if there is a worst case scenario. Do they own the panels or do you own the panels? In bankruptcy, their assets would be sold off. If they can’t make it work, why could another company without jacking up your rates dramatically?

I guess the big issue would be ongoing maintenance if they aren’t in the picture.

BUT, we have a contract for 20 years for a guaranteed 15 cents per kilowatt (as opposed to 17 cents through our current supplier, National Grid.)

But let’s also look at the hyperinflationary or simply inflationary scenario: Under the contract, the electricity produced is sold to us at a level 15 cents per kilowatt. This is a stable, flat pricing. It can never go up under the terms of the contract.

If inflation continues or hyperinflation occurs, our electricity will still be purchased at 15 cents per kilowatt. I think this is a good thing…

What I don’t know is what happens if a new currency is introduced to replace the dollar.

FREE Electricity!! For the rest of your life!! No Money down!! YOU win, WE win!! What could go wrong??

I’m going to do my best to ruin Jojimbo’s day.

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SunRun Solar – A Good Deal?

I recently noticed ads for SunRun Solar popping up on this web site. As a supporter of solar energy, naturally I was intrigued, particularly since they claim they can install a solar power system for as little as zero dollars. The last time I looked into the cost of installing a 5kw system for mediaOrganic the net cost after all rebates and incentives was going to be about $28,000. That was two years ago. Admittedly, prices may have come down since then but Sun Run’s promise seemed a bit radical. So I clicked over to their web site to learn more.

According to a 2009 article in Forbes Magazine, SunRun sells something called a power purchase agreement, in which the homeowner agrees to buy the solar power generated on their roof at a fixed rate (the rate may increase a bit over time). The idea is that as electricity costs charged by utilities rise (they tend to increase about 4% a year), the SunRun customer will be paying less and less than they would have otherwise.

SunRun offers two plans. The first is the SunRun Power Plan. For a small upfront payment, in my case $2400, not exactly zero dollars, SunRun will install a turnkey system and maintain it for 20 years. In exchange, the homeowner signs a 20-year agreement to purchase the power generated by the system. The pitch is that the cost of SunRun power will remain favorable compared to the cost of power from your local utility over the term of the agreement. A calculator on the website tells me that I’m going to save $14,800 over the 20 years, an annual return on my $2400 investment of 22%.

SunRun’s second plan is SunRun Total Solar. All the payments are made in a lump sum at inception of the agreement. For mediaOrganic, the upfront investment would be $17,500. There is no additional monthly payment or cost for the power derived from the system. The SunRun calculator tells me that I’m going to save over $30,000, an annual rate of return of 4%.

Under both plans, SunRun owns the system and collects the federal and state incentives and tax credits which they claim are passed through to the customer.

Let’s consider the merits of these two PPA options. First off, let’s call a spade a spade. These are nothing more than gussied up equipment leases that roll in a maintenance contract. Oh, there may be some legalese inserted that push them into a slightly different territory but you are still signing a legal obligation to make the payments and they are purchasing and installing costly equipment based on your promise to pay. Make no mistake, there will be severe penalties for non-performance.

Second, a 20-year agreement is a v e r y l o n g agreement. The SunRun Power Plan probably has the advantage here because the smaller upfront payment means that you may recoup your out-of-pocket costs in a few years. The Total Solar plan will take many years to recapture the large upfront payment. Most homeowners won’t live in their homes long enough to see any financial benefit and for those who do, lot’s of things can happen over the course of 20 years.

WHAT CONCERNS ME MOST THOUGH IS THAT YOUR OBLIGATION CONTINUES AFTER YOU SELL YOUR HOME. SunRun downplays this by telling us that the agreements are easily transferred to the new owners but this assumes that the new owners are willing to take on this obligation, something I would never take for granted and a needlessly complicating condition for the sale of your home. For me, this is a deal breaker and I bet it would be for a lot of other prospective home buyers.

Now to the elephant in the room that is not being discussed – the falling cost of solar power and emerging alternative technologies. The global economy is in the very early stages of the solar power production cycle. New technologies are being developed daily, efficiencies are improving and production capacity is rapidly ramping up. In all likelihood, five years from now I will be able to install a system for 20-30% less than today. Just as likely, some new technology will emerge that will obviate the need for rooftop solar arrays. Can you say Bloombox? Twenty year commitments simply aren’t a good match in a world in which technology lifecycles are measured in months.

Bottom Line: If you are set on solar power and looking for a way to install solar panels at the lowest upfront cost, SunRun is worth investigating. For most homeowners, however, the long-term commitment required by SunRun’ PPAs are likely to prove costly.

Fast forward to 2:08: “It is puzzling to some that Major General Zhang Zhaozhong, a professor from the Chinese National Defense University, said China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with a third World War… Professor Xia Ming: “Zhang Zhaozhong said that not hesitating to fight a third world war would be entirely for domestic political needs….” And don’t forget Russia, which recently said it is preparing to retaliate against NATO and has put radar stations on combat alert: “Russia is another ally of Iran, with similar policy to that of China. Toward Iran.” Watch, and please forward the entire video, for an explanation of how China is approaching the situation not only in Iran, but a perspective of how they view the western “threat”, as well as what tensions they face domestically.

1. Our contract is zero money down. They waived the $1000 down payment. Our plan is the first type – SunRun Power Plan. Our cost per month will be a flat $44.80 per month. No joke. $44.80. We use very little electricity – all our utilites use natural gas (stove, water heater, furnace, clothes dryer).

2. “In all likelihood, five years from now I will be able to install a system for 20-30% less than today.” Are you kidding me? This is the technology will save us argument. TBP’ers expect the markets to crash, economies to collapse, and credit markets to seize up, and I want to wait five years for this miraculous new technology? What will the price of silver be in five years once the paper silver market is shown to be a fraud?

3. Where is inflation in this guy’s argument? This is stable, level pricing FOR TWENTY YEARS. Can you name anything that will be the same price in twenty years?

4. WHAT CONCERNS ME MOST THOUGH IS THAT YOUR OBLIGATION CONTINUES AFTER YOU SELL YOUR HOME. Are you kidding me? If I sell my home, the new owner assumes the term of the contract. Are you telling me that a person would not want to ensure level pricing for electricity they use? Also, I think a solar array on one’s home will INCREASE the value of the home. Especially in Massachusetts, where many people want a “green” lifestyle that is environmentally correct.

SunRun welcomes questions and concerns to continue the conversation about home solar.

Sometimes, skeptical press can be just as important as positive press. We recently stumbled upon an article in mediaOrganic that raised some concerns about SunRun and our solar power service, and we’re excited by the questions because it means more people are talking about home solar! We welcome the concerns as an opportunity to assuage them and clarify the benefits of home solar delivered as a service through SunRun.

To that end, the top objections we encountered in this thoughtful mediaOrganic article are: 1) This sounds like a lease disguised by fancy wording, 2) There is a lot of risk and obligation with a SunRun agreement, 3) What if I move? The following insight will help clarify how the SunRun opportunity is different (and better) than a lease, why it mitigates risk, and how studies have shown that putting solar on your home can often help you sell it faster in the event that you move.

SunRun offers solar power service based on a power purchase agreement (PPA), which is similar to a lease, but also more comprehensive. In a lease agreement you rent equipment; with SunRun’s solar power service you simply pay for the power your panels produce, and we take complete care of the system. This means all monitoring, maintenance, repair and insurance is included in the agreement. To make the deal even sweeter, if the panels produce less than predicted we pay you the difference! This eliminates all equipment and performance risks that you’d encounter with full ownership, or in a standard lease agreement.

Now for a bit more on the topic of risk: when you sign up with SunRun you agree to buy power produced by the system, nothing more and nothing less. This is your obligation to SunRun, and SunRun’s obligation to you is to take complete care of your system. Let’s put SunRun’s 20-year agreement in context by considering your current power payment situation: you are obligated to your utility for your entire life and you have no control over the price they charge for electricity. Utilities increase rates at an average of about 5% per year! In comparison, SunRun gives homeowners control over what they pay by locking in low, fixed rates for 20 years – plus you get your power from a clean source! You’ll know exactly what you’re going to pay for the life of the 20-year agreement, and as utility rates rise, your savings will increase steadily. In comparison to your obligations to the utility, we see SunRun as an opportunity to take control and have independence while going green!

So what if you think you might move? Recent studies show homes with solar panels sell more quickly than homes without panels. In fact, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, a solar home will sell twice as fast as a home without panels. Think about it: a solar system significantly reduces the cost of ownership by lowering electric bills, and a home with controlled power costs is a positive selling point for most homeowners. SunRun homes are even more attractive than outright ownership because we maintain, monitor, insure, and repair our systems. For all of these reasons, SunRun makes it easy to transfer your contract to a new homeowner. We’re hoping that someday, people will see panels as essential on a home, much like doors, windows and a solid roof are today.”

In terms of #4, no, not everyone wants solar panels on their roof … especially the older it gets. 12 years down the line …. how many people want a 12-year old solar panel system on their roof AND a contract forcing them to use it or 8 more years. I sure as hell would not. Hopefully your roof is in real good shape … for the next 20 years.

I did NOT say it was a bad thing!! If it’s right for you, go for it.

Here’s what I do know. You are leasing. Can you benefit from leasing? Yes … our Honda is on a lease! But, generally speaking the Leasing Company benefits more. They are not in it to lose money … and they won’t. In general, one saves more money purchasing than leasing … over the long haul.

Yojimbo says: “I have an agreement with a national company called SunRun to put solar on our roof for no money down. You don’t have to pay anything except a flat rate for the electricity it produces (which is below the current rate for Mass residents). SunRun owns the system.”

Yo Jimbo…I lived in Mass for 64 years. In that period of time it was never sunny enough light a fart, let alone a lamp. And if you got a candle going, Barney Frank would BLOW it out.

Every presidential campaign I’ve ever lived through (OK, I’m not that old, but it’s at least like 6 of these assholes) had each winning candidate pledge that they would ween America off foreign oil. I’m wondering how far back this goes, but it’s the same platitude bullshit they all say – what a crock! We can’t help ourselves. It will never happen. Green/renewable isn’t gonna cut it with our appetite. So, here we are. On the precipice of being bent over by Iran; while China already has us bent over. The greatest nation…