4th Quarter Jobs Improvement?

10/6/2011 3:46PM

WSJ's Kelly Evans stops by Mean Street to discuss the nation's employment picture, and specifically the prospects for an improvement in the jobs picture September and the 4th quarter. Photo: Ryan Anson/AFP/Getty Images

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

Gruner ... why ... Moralist is expected ... but just a preview ... to the BAA DLS released tomorrow the big jobs number ... and to discuss that when we have put none other ... than ahead of the Tape columnist ... my ... my ... my outlet my for ... my morning partner in crime star of stage and story today although ... somewhat under the weather ... Kelly Evans is that you get somebody favors over the years cycling returned unplugged ... anytime if they really talk but the labor market you know I know the labor market does it get you say OK ... let's talk first impressions ... the ADP number came out on Wednesday ... a little better than expected to reprise a job creation ... today's number ... will claim a victory than I was plus or minus what they were expecting ... tomorrow ... we get an upside surprise or our downside surprise if we get an upside surprise across the sun some pride at this tree is covered from UGO I'll explain silly ATP is been a ... pretty much in line with expectations has been that a lot last couple months jobless claims have really gone anywhere so I think your Tennessee is picture of very weak ... remark in August that Rampone forth your ball is very disappointing and showed ... total jobs and inward Cyril again affected by Verizon strike but hourly earnings declined all of these major venture decline use LIA we see that we get some some bounce back next months I think ... the coverage of a weak August report ... on the broader labour market data that's been we got some inside the car holding in there otherwise ... and in economy which as you say despite all the recession concerns was not in recession in September that will mean that we'll probably see something like a hundred outside the core of the forest can get boring when ... everyone gets in a comment that the inside and I doubt I'll buy one ... now when you say as expected what did you know the headline numbers in some instances we've got we've got is that in in in basically extrapolating from jobs and secure the factors that looks like the labor market added a thousand hundred thousand jobs that's right the ... white that's totals are you but let's start at the top the total hundred K ... minus forty five after the Verizon workers strike which ... subtracted from payrolls in August we get that bounce back in September it's you that it shouldn't matter what but it does don't take that our looking about fifty thousand ... over a lot of this of the private sector peers actually better than that why because it's really the public sector the government are seen declined so ... that fifty K you've probably got again about thirty five thousand private sector may subtract about twenty five thousand the cabinet secretary ... so ... all that being said yes it's encouraging relative to those with the recession fears couple weeks ago but of course ... if we continue that disagree datapoint between three and Standard Chartered discount data something like fifty thousand jobs a month ... for the foreseeable future given what a rate that could mean that we'll never good at eleven forty nine percent I don't know which they come to my ... my my next question ... the jobless numbers matter anymore framework is one still cannot afford to report what what what are the one that is something that you just talk show which is ... jobs ... and we've not been generating ... the hundreds of thousands of jobs a month that it preceded ... me dashing bring the unemployment rate down ... Fred Smith CEO FedEx just came out today Doherty said he said there is no recession America I mean he's a pretty MRE Doddy is fully appease the bigger boys got pretty good view of what's going on people ... it's ... so Isobar ... it's can be as is slowing and wrote down ... slow growth which means ... it probably meant that some jobs growth ... but nothing like a game changer not again we we had a similar problem and in two dozen people on the same evidence that the two thousand recession into a smile by historical standards only a couple months long end of November two thousand won ... we shed jobs adequately rose for eighteen twenty four month downtrend curious to what we're going to now it's unusual ... that it's really been a decade fifteen twenty years of leading a pain in the last decade two thousand two thousandnine ... we added jobs in only two out of every nobody in the bill around Italy and adjusting to out of every three months in the nineties we ended up basically the entire decade of their fundamental things happening you're there without a catalyst as you say around the corner ... of my fortune ... discovery was ... the catalyst is put in a new BlackBerry Collegiate in Wonacott Nigeria ... will provoke you alluded to in the ... present Obama was out today teaching jobs daily life but I ... can add jobs bill realistically have any impact over the next ... three to five months ... on creating jobs machine as well ... as to what this case another month or two ... here is the cure so you just know it from an investor's point of view ... how many dollars as the government spending ... on ... relative to what the baseline is right now so here's the press about its just that the D tells him that I would argue ... armed with the matter they don't matter so long term the matter because you hope that they're trying to create jobs in the second research project which actually could despite not having short-term people worry about twenty twelve first let's get this the drag from ... weddings this prevents going away all you really care about is the differential will the jostling get built gets there or not and does it it appears that occurred for what really gets there with the relatively new the Chuanzhi and it was Kelly Evans you believe in the belief system ... is a really there there are getting is brought out the run outs as they spend money Guinea get X ... trust acts in terms of GDP in this situation because I think in some like Richard ... articulate a really well that must recall see basically has no efficacy and in this continent and it's up to fiscal policy and still it then there's the question to be you ... you want to try to avoid recession you want to maintain the status quo ... would rather let things on the day ... we got around it's clear from the predecessor by the way that there are some who prefer to stay status quo we don't like let things on the outlook for this ... actually was ... Ardi we we will not be discussed calls for cool idea ... Q What ... tomorrow morning eight thirty ... here I'm WS J live ... and on Kelly's program and it is um ... you will get ... Kelly Evans ... noted the jobs report that the jobs report ... and I will be there and heard ... the trust trusty sidekick Beals the that that the odds of that will be the