Senate Conservatives Fund Backs Maness in Louisiana Senate Race

The Senate Conservatives Fund has endorsed retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness over Rep. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s GOP primary for Senate, throwing its support behind a conservative underdog in one of the cycle’s most competitive races.

“Colonel Rob Maness … understands the value of our freedoms and will fight to repeal Obamacare and stop the massive spending, bailouts, and debt that are bankrupting our country,” said Matt Hoskins, the executive director of Senate Conservatives Fund, in a Monday news release. “He offers voters a compelling choice over Senator Mary Landrieu because he’s not a Washington insider.”

Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996. This would mean she is a 3rd term senator and running for a 4th term and not the 2nd term senator as indicated above.

Aaron Reck

Also she was elected State Treasure in 1988 and served till 1996. So, if you include those 2 terms and the 3 terms she’s won as a senator. That’s 5 statewide wins and not 2. Just saying. She’s been an elected statewide official in Louisiana since 1988.

mabramso

But she is very vulnerable. She has never broken 52% in any of her Senate races, and her only victory in a midterm election happened before the mass exodus of New Orleans following Katrina.

Aaron Reck

Well I think Democrats will do better in a non-presidential year. If she can win in 08 with John McCain at the head of the ticket with an all out get out the vote effort I think she can survive again. 2014 the Year of the Southern Democratic Woman! Grimes, Tennant, Landrieu, Nunn and Hagan will all win. Just my prediction.

mabramso

It is well known that in 2008, there was a HUGE dropoff in GOP turnout, and historically, the President’s party gets hammered in the 6th year midterm election — though I doubt that it will happen in the House because 2010 kind of took care of that one midterm election early (similar to 1994).

I think you are a bit delusional. I would guess that Tennant, Grimes, and Nunn have about a 25% chance of winning. Nunn’s chances will improve to about 50% if the GOP nominates Gingrey and about 60% if they nominate Broun, as both of them have “Akin” written all over them. But both scenarios are unlikely because Georgia has a primary runoff system, and it will be very difficult for either one to break 50% (recall that Akin won the GOP primary in MO with only 36% of the vote).

I would put Landrieu at about a 52% chance and Hagan at about 50% — Landrieu is pretty likable and has been re-elected before, but she lives in a red state that has been getting redder. I mean, all the House members except one are Republicans. Demographically, that is very hard to overcome. She is almost like Scott Brown was in Massachusetts. Hagan is in a little better demographic situation, but NC still has a slight red lean, and Hagan has not been there long enough to really become attached to the voters. She won in 2008 pretty much because of the huge black turnout. Furthermore, the new voting law will surely have some impact.

Aaron Reck

You must be a very rude person. I’m sorry for you. That being said I would speculate you thought that Heidi had no chance in North Dakota or Joe in Indiana. I think it is a poor excuse to use turnout as a reason why Landrieu won when McCain won Louisiana 58.9 to 39.9 in 2008.
Also, I live in Kentucky and I’m not saying I know everything about Kentucky politics but McConnell is in hot water. The beloved 2010 election showed that when his hand picked candidate (frmr SOS Trey GRayson) lost the primary. You could see this as well in 07 when Fletcher beat Northup in the gubernatorial primary. Democrats have came close with Mongirado and Lunsford to beating McConnell. Lunsford was even accused of abusing ederly people in a nursing company he owned and won 47% of the vote. I just don’t see how McConnell wins. No one likes him here. He’s not done enough to placate Louisville and Paducah to win this time. The nuclear plant that closed their made him look weak and when Fort Campbell announced it was downsizing that helped no more. The “Kentucky Kickback” won’t be enough for Lousiville. To little to late. Hal Rodgers has wasted his time as Appropriations Chairman.
Larry Sabato has moved Louisiana and North Carolina to Lean Democrat. Louisiana for stated reasons above. North Carolina because of the awful approval ratings of Govern McCory and the more atrocious ratings of the North Carolina General Assembly. Speaker Tillis doesn’t seem to fit the mold. Even in an off year election.
West Virginia resoundingly reelected Manchin and Earl Ray Tomblin was closer than expected but still won both times as well. Capito has her own problems.
On Georgia. You said it best it’s a runoff election. I’m going to predict a runoff with Gingrey and Broun. Maybe I’m being optimistic but certainly not delusional. The cries of Romney supporters the week before a thumping about victory at hand was delusional.

mabramso

1. For what it’s worth, my comment about your being delusional was not meant personally (only to your predictions), and if you took it that way, I apologize. For a left-winger, you have better reasoning than most people I go back and forth with. I simply think your views about the races are skewed by your political desires.

2. You seem to make the assumption that I am a Republican. I am not. I am independent, but make a hobby of predicting elections. I try very hard to separate my views from my predictions and have largely been successful.

3. I expected Berg to win in ND. It was a reasonable guess given the demographics of the state, and if I am not mistaken, Sabato predicted it as well, while the others had it as a tossup.

4. I probably would have predicted Mourdock to win (has was doing quite well in the polls), until he made his ridiculous Akin-like comment. After that, it became obvious that he was toast. The GOP has been exceptionally good at that.

5. McConnell has poor poll numbers now, but the election is a year away. And senate leaders almost never lose — they are very hard to knock off. Not too different than Harry Reid was, except that KY is a bit redder than Nevada. He is certainly vulnerable, but I just don’t see Grimes beating him.

6. I concede that I had not considered the possibility of a Broun-Gingrey primary, no doubt a left-wing fantasy. I suppose it is possible, given enough viable candidates. Of course, since they are competing for the same group of GOP votes, they could just as easily knock each other out of a runoff as well. But it is too soon to tell.

7. I never said that turnout was an issue in Louisiana. I was referring to Hagan in North Carolina. And the 2008 exit polls confirm this. And considering that North Carolina just voted 60-40 for arguably the toughest anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendment in the country, I would say that she is very vulnerable. I concede that the experts have Hagan as Lean Democrat, but at this time in 2010, Johnson in Wisconsin wasn’t even on the radar. I know about the NC legislature, but generic ratings don’t mean much this far out. If Kagan wins, part of it will no doubt be because Tillis will turn out to be an inferior candidate, which is entirely possible.

8. Whatever Capito’s problems are, she does seem like a pretty strong candidate, and most of the experts have this seat leaning or likely GOP. Hence, my comments. And the key thing you have said about Manchin and Tomblin is “Re-elect”. I might think Tennant had more of a chance if there were a Democrat incumbent running, but it’s an open seat in a red state.

9. I also have the GOP winning in SD, AR, and MT. Not sure yet about AK — the candidates are not settled and it’s a very hard state to predict.

Shira T. Center

I have clarified the above to specify Landrieu has won three Senate terms in Louisiana. Thank you for reading our politics coverage!

Ryan

Politically, this is a significant score for Landrieu. Maness won’t have the chops to unseat her, but if Cassidy gets hit from both angles, he’ll be battered, weakened, and stretched in all directions, leaving him in no shape to contend in the runoff.