Energy Visions

Energy Visions

Has China replaced America as Europe’s climate partner?

A survey of POLITICO’s energy and climate policy readers, conducted by Energy Visions finds a clear preference for China as a partner for climate action — but Europeans are not entirely giving up hope on the U.S.

Once upon a time, it felt to some as though the European Union was standing alone among the great powers when it came to fighting climate change. Attempts at global climate treaties in Kyoto and Copenhagen fell apart in the face of fighting between China and the United States, both of which were reluctant to take up the climate fight.

But, in the early part of this decade, the mood began to change. A shift in both Beijing and Washington enabled real movement. Brussels began working closely with Washington, with China as a cooperating partner. The new dynamic enabled the Paris accord — the first global commitment to reduce carbon emissions — to be signed in 2015.

However, the United States’ decision to formally withdraw from the Paris climate deal last year has inevitably shuffled the dynamics in climate and energy diplomacy. Given the history of global climate talks, all eyes were on Beijing following Donald Trump’s announcement.

As the U.S. have taken themselves out of the picture on the national level, it will fall to the EU and China to take up the slack.

Ten years ago, the answer might have been “if America isn’t in, neither are we.” But instead of retreating, China doubled down on its commitment to the Paris climate agreement. In a series of summits, Beijing and Brussels ramped up a bilateral partnership to fight climate change.

So, are the EU and China the new “power couple” when it comes to climate action? Energy Visions put that question to POLITICO readers, and the answers were striking. In total, 77 percent of respondents said yes, while 22 percent said no.

“As the U.S. have taken themselves out of the picture on the national level, it will fall to the EU and China to take up the slack,” said one respondent. “Fortunately, both the EU and China seem to be able, if not always willing, to step up.” “The EU has the knowhow and China has the production capacity and capital,” said another. “These blocs are, unfortunately, the only globally active partners in climate action.”

Not everyone was convinced. “China’s action is overstated,” said one person. “The U.S. remains influential, even if in a negative sense at the federal level,” said another. “The lack of support for the Paris [climate] agreement does not indicate a lack of power or influence. Action by major states such as California and New York will be critically important, as these are economies of global scale and importance, whose policy interventions are both innovative and material.”

China is doing a lot in the road transport sector, and it is already world market leader in electronic vehicles.

Innovation from the East

But even with this action at state level in America, Europeans do not see climate innovation coming from across the Atlantic. Asked who the EU should look to for inspiration and new ideas outside Europe, 41 percent said China, while only 13 percent said the U.S., and 15 percent saw Canada as a more inspirational source of climate ideas.

“China is doing a lot in the road transport sector, and it is already world market leader in electronic vehicles,” said one respondent. “China can be inspiring, especially on the technology level,” said another. “I would be more skeptical when it comes to governance and accountability, there the EU should be rather an example for China.”

While the U.S. federal government may not support the Paris climate agreement, actions at state and regional level — including legal challenges to the federal government — are still at the cutting edge of policy development globally.

Those who stated that climate inspiration should come from the U.S. were keen to stress that ideas come from people, not countries, and that the government’s position would not dampen the creativity of U.S. innovators. “The U.S. remains a volcano of initiatives and new ideas, regardless of its current president,” said one respondent. “While the U.S. federal government may not support the Paris climate agreement, actions at state and regional level — including legal challenges to the federal government — are still at the cutting edge of policy development globally.”

Others were keen to stress that possibilities in China are not always relevant as an example for Europe, given the different governing systems. “China’s efforts to develop a transition plan for coal-mining communities is directly relevant to Germany, Poland, and other Eastern European countries, but the difference in political structures limits the applicability,” said one person.

Meanwhile, 80 percent of respondents said they see China’s technological advancement as an opportunity for Europe, while only 20 percent saw it as a threat. And 62 percent said they expect to see China arrive at widespread deployment of electric vehicles (EV) first, while only 10 percent expected the EU to win the EV race, and only five percent the U.S.

Some distrust

Despite China’s high-level commitment to the Paris climate agreement, there is still some skepticism about whether China will meet its Paris targets: 69 percent said they expect the goals to be met, while 31 percent said they did not.

“China’s actions are driven by clean air needs in cities, and to place itself in the lead globally for exports,” one respondent said. “Otherwise it will not give up on coal for social, economic, and national security reasons. It can achieve ambitious targets that fit its pace of development. It will not change its pace of development to achieve globally defined targets.”

There was also skepticism about whether the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will eventually link up with China’s new national scheme, with 64 percent saying they do not expect such a link-up. “China has said that its ETS is very small and focused on specific sectors, so I’d say that if this were to occur, it would only happen in approximately five to six years’ time,” said one person.

Asked in which aspect of fighting climate change China has advanced the most, the overwhelming majority — 75 percent — said renewable energy, while five percent said carbon capture and storage.

The respondents showed a clear preference for China as the EU’s trusted climate partner going forward, but they also showed some reservations about whether that trust is really warranted. There are clearly diverging opinions on this subject, and these opinions will be explored at the next Energy Visions debate in Brussels on June 21. Speakers, including EU climate chief Miguel Arias Cañete, will talk about the EU-China partnership and what comes next. There is plenty to discuss.

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Energy Visions also asked Harry Brekelmans, Shell’s projects and technology director and a member of the Executive Committee, to weigh in — read his answers to this most recent survey here.

This piece featured highlights of the first 2018 Energy Visions survey. The full survey results can be found here.