Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

sad in a way, but in reality, that's the best a Republican can do given the demographics of the country. Any Dem (and I do mean "any") gets 43% of the popular vote for showing up and a whole slew of states (NY, CA, MASS, NJ, we all know the list). We are that close to socialism in the US.

I heard him also. Not sure I agree with everthing he said - example, Graham could probably carry FL. I don't think so - unless they try the voter fraud again. Jeb Bush is doing a good job here and is fairly well liked - and he trounced McAwful's "shoe-in" McBride for Gov.

I would think the Hispanic community would be behind GWBush - he's done a heck of lot more for them than the RATS - can you say Estrada!! Of course I've never been a Graham fan - before he started running, he came off as a slow witted doofus. Now he sounds just like every other shrill, deceitful RAT.

Graham will be Kerry's running mate, they must have Florida to have a chance of winning, so they are betting that Graham will help them take it. Graham has no chance of being the nominee, he is just in the race for the VP slot.

If Bush only wins the same states he won in 2000, he would have 278 Electoral votes in 2004. I think he is going to not only win the states he won in 2000, but carry the several close states that went for Gore. This is my conservative projection.

It could be much better, and President Bush might win more than 40 states. He's currently very popular in New York and could possibly win there. If the DemocRATS keep collapsing in California, Bush might win it and also Barbara Boxer could be defeated in her race for a third term.

The DemocRATS might nominate Dean, and the Republican ticket might win 45 or more states.

The DemocRATS totally lose their minds, nominate Al Sharpton, and lose all 50 states, but win the District of Columbia. This would cause the Electoral College to vote 335-3 in favor of Bush.

Yeah, even with the full fledge cultural/social/judicial issues nuclear summer I expect the Dems to pull next year, I don't see them winning with any of the 9. I think a Wesley Clark or an outside curve ball(Jeff Bezos type) as their best hope.

I am not actually a fan of Sabato. Not to brag, but he was about a month or more behind me in handicapping House races last time. His little map is eventually found, and just has Bush winning the same states he did last time. That's original and exciting. The only oddity, is that the GOP trending state of Minnesota is in the probable Dem column, rather than leaning Dem, which is nutso (actually it should be labeled leaning GOP). It is all spam.

Splendid. Bush carries what he did last time, except for the home state of the Dem candidate if it was one Bush carried last time, ala NC if Edwards is the candidate. LOL. This must be some April fools joke, except it ain't April, and the publication ain't The Onion.

Bush might as well give up now if Sabato is right... Aw but we have the 'showboy' and his gift coming on board to make the difference..

Actually it may go down that way as the country is very split today... However all the past President's that have been reelected going back to may FDR days had done so with fairly large EC margins, not close as he's projecting.

Even Clinton won with some 379 EC votes and only 49% of the Popular... So if President Bush does win I'd look for it to be much larger than Sabato is projecting.

27
posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:15 PM PDT
by deport
( BUSH/CHENEY 2004...... with or without the showboy)

This crystal ball is cracked. One example. He has Missouri going for favorite son Lil' Dickie Gephardt, but Lil' Dickie has never won a statewide race in Missouri and most of the state does not like St. Louis liberals. And I betcha that Edwards, like Gore, could not take his home state against Bush.

You don't get it. A monkey prepared this map, and gave Bush what he got last time, less any states he carried that are the home state of the Dem candidate 9with one exception, noted below). Thus, all win, except Kerry, who comes from a Gore state, and Lieberman, who is given Florida because he is Jewish I assume, and thus Broward and Palm Beach will go really nuts this time. Dean isn't on the list.

QUESTION: If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote to reelect John Edwards, would consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Edwards?

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry...

Doesn't make any sense. Are you sure you got the info right? If so, Sabato doesn't know his own tush from a hole in the ground.

At this early stage, the three Dem candidates with the best shot at the nomination are Dean (angry grassroots Left), Kerry (war record & money) and Gephardt (unions). Edwards and Graham have not gotten any traction at all in the early going, and Lieberman seems to be lagging in the fund-raising area. If their chances are slim against their own fellow Dems, what chance do they have against the President?

I believe it can happen. Politics is very fickle, particularly after what we saw in 2000. One bad debate can sink Bush (remember Ford?).

I have accepted the fact that it is going to be a close election, not as close as 2000, but close. That is why I laugh when I see freepers ignorantly high-fiving each other every week on Bush's meaningless poll numbers on job approval this early.

I can guarantee you one thing. If you are one of those Freepers who thinks Bush has 6 more years left, you will be stunned at the ferocity of campaigning and dirty tricks you will see next year from the Dems. Any talk of "landslides" now is irresponsible. We have to act like it is going to be a long fight.

Do not forget, despite the high approval ratings, Bush's re-elect numbers are remarkably soft. People have already forgotten more people voted for Nader/Gore than for Bush. I will be shocked if Bush carries more than 35-36 states, and Sabato could well be right.

If things stay as they are right now, it is going to be a closer election than most think--depending on which Dem candidate emerges.

The economy has been "recovering" since the spring of 2000, but layoffs continue, the stock market has been bouncing up and down, and things aren't all rosy in the pocketbooks. Like it or not, people vote based on their pocketbooks.

Events could change drastically either for or against GWB on either economic or terrorism front. More economic instability and GWB may be out. Another significant terrorist attack could help or hurt GWB, depending on where, how, etc. If it is over the open borders, GWB is out, because the opposition will say he didn't secure the borders. If it were something perceived as unstoppable surprise, GWB could be helped in the polls, depending on his response.

The "well knowns" on the Dem side don't stand much of a chance. Dean is the most "outsider" of the lot. Don't discount him. The last 2 Dem Presidents have been governors; the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

Don't count Hillary out. She is lurking, learing, waiting for a perceivable change. She cannot afford to let another Dem possibly win the Presidence--that would put her out until 2012 and she can't wait that long. She will connive behind the scenes, and if there is any perceived weakness in GWB's reelection, Hillary will maneuver herself to be the one sworn in as President. Don't ever underestimate her.

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