The tightest election in 40 years? Not according to many of the educated guessers in the 10th Outlook Crystal Ball contest. At our invitation, these pundits and students of politics put their predictions in print  and offered "hot hunches" in other races. We'll salute the winner online and in next Sunday's paper, and award  what else? A crystal ball.

PRESIDENT

SENATE

HOUSE

N.Y. SENATE

Pct. of Popular Vote

Electoral Vote

No. of Seats

No. of Seats

Winner

Bush

Gore

Nader

Buchanan & Others

Bush

Gore

GOP

Dem.

GOP

Dem.

Ind.

Clinton

Lazio

David BositisAnalyst, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies

45%

47%

5%

3%

258

280

51

49

216

217

2

X

William KristolEditor, the Weekly Standard

46%

47%

6%

1%

221

317

53

47

223

210

2

X

Celinda LakeDemocratic pollster, Lake Snell Perry & Assoc.

47%

48%

4%

1%

265

273

50

50*

216

217

2

X

Michael Lewis-BeckUniversity of Iowa political science professor co-creator of a tested forecasting model

44%

53%

2%

1%

140

398

48

52

198

233

4

X

Mary Matalinco-host, CNN's "Crossfire"

52%

44%

4%

0%

359

179

54

46

219

214

2

X

Christopher Matthewshost, MSNBC's "Hardball With Chris Matthews"

47%

46%

5%

2%

267

271

52

48

216

217

2

X

Peggy Noonancolumnist/author

52%

43%

3%

2%

411

127

55

45

229

205

1

X

William Saletanpolitical reporter, Slate magazine

47%

45%

6%

2%

254

284

51

49

218

215

2

X

Tony Snowhost, Fox's "News Roundtable"

50%

45%

4%

1%

343

195

52

48

220

215

0

X

Ben Steinhost, "Win Ben Stein's Money"

50%

45%

4%

1%

280

258

52

48

212

222

1

X

Amy Walterpolitical reporter, the Cook Report

49%

45%

4%

2%

283

255

51

49

219

214

2

X

Armstrong Williamshost, Talk America Radio's "The Right Side With Armstrong Williams"

49%

43%

5%

3%

284

254

55

45

230

202

3

X

Herndon High Schoolstudents in AP government classes

48%

46%

4%

2%

288

250

53

47

218

215

2

X

Montgomery Blair High School10th-grade communication arts class

46.4%

43.9%

4.9%

4.8%

297

241

54

46

216

217

2

X

* Control goes to the Democrats based on a Gore victory, giving Lieberman the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.