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1 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No State Merit-based Financial Aid Programs and College Attainment David L. Sjoquist John V. Winters August 2012 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute for the Study of Labor

2 State Merit-based Financial Aid Programs and College Attainment David L. Sjoquist Georgia State University John V. Winters University of Cincinnati and IZA Discussion Paper No August 2012 IZA P.O. Box Bonn Germany Phone: Fax: Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit organization supported by Deutsche Post Foundation. The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research results and concepts to the interested public. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

3 IZA Discussion Paper No August 2012 ABSTRACT State Merit-based Financial Aid Programs and College Attainment * We examine the effects of recently adopted state merit-based financial aid programs on college attendance and degree completion. Our primary analysis uses microdata from the 2000 Census and American Community Survey to estimate the effects of merit programs on educational outcomes for 25 merit aid adopting states. We also utilize administrative data for the University System of Georgia to look more in depth at the effects of the HOPE Scholarship on degree completion in Georgia. We find strong consistent evidence that state merit aid programs have no meaningfully positive effect on college completion. Coefficient estimates for our preferred specifications are small and statistically insignificant. State merit aid programs do not appear to increase the percentage of young people with a college education. JEL Classification: H75, I23, J24 Keywords: merit aid, HOPE, college attainment, degree completion, higher education Corresponding author: John V. Winters University of Cincinnati Department of Economics PO Box Cincinnati, OH USA * We thank Rob Watts, Lakshmi Pandey, Charles Zachary and Nancy Snyder for their help. Some of the data used in this article are proprietary and cannot be made publicly available.

4 I. Introduction College graduation rates have become a national concern and increasing the completion rate is now a national policy target (Resmovits 2012). The 6-year graduation rate for students seeking a bachelor degree was 58.3 percent for the 2004 freshmen cohort, up from 55.4 percent for the 1996 cohort (National Center for Education Statistics 2012). 1 The interest in increasing the college completion rate and our lack of understanding of what matters has spurred research that attempts to identify causal factors that drive completion or attrition rates; see Melguizo (2011) for a review of this literature. While we do not fully understand what policies improve the attainment rate (Dynarski 2002), one factor that has been investigated is financial aid. Financial aid is expected to increase college completion rates because it lowers the costs of college for students and their families. Financial aid also reduces the need to work while in school, thereby allowing more time for course work, which is expected to increase college performance and perhaps college completion. Goldrick-Rab, Harris, and Trostel (2009) provide an extensive review of the literature of the effects of student aid and note the lack of research that measures causal effects of financial aid. Increasingly, states have turned to merit-based aid programs, one objective of which is to increase college completion rates. We identified 25 states that implemented a merit-based student aid program between 1991 and 2004 (see Table 1), although the characteristics of these programs differ substantially. 2 After reviewing the details of all of these programs, we identified 9 programs as being of relatively more significant as measured by the eligibility criteria, the number of students in the program, and the size of the award. 1 Scott-Clayton (2011) calculates a much smaller graduation rate. 2 There are discrepancies in how various authors classify scholarship programs. We used various sources to develop our list; see the sources listed in Table 1. 1

5 While merit-based aid could improve college performance, it is not clear whether merit aid will increase the probability of graduating, or graduating within 4 years. For example, Cornwell, Lee, and Mustard (2005) find that HOPE students at the University of Georgia reduced course taking, presumably to be able to spend more time on their courses or to delay losing HOPE. 3 The requirement that a student maintain a minimum college GPA to retain eligibility provides an incentive to meet this performance standard. But that does not necessarily translate into a higher probability of graduating, or graduating within 4 years. Some merit aid programs require students to enroll full time or limit the number of semesters that a student can be eligible. These requirements do provide an incentive to graduate sooner, however they do not provide a direct incentive to actually graduate. While authors such as Titus (2006) find that financial aid positively affects student performance, scholarships provided to high quality meriteligible students may have no marginal effect on their completion rates if they were very likely to graduate anyway. 4 Furthermore, fairly stringent renewal requirements cause many marginal recipients to lose merit scholarships after their first or second year of college, limiting the effects on their graduation rates. Some students may be enticed by a merit scholarship to enroll in college but drop out after losing the scholarship. Research on the effects of merit-based aid on college completion rates is quite limited. 5 The five papers we identified consider merit-based student aid programs in just four states. 3 The eligibility decision is first made after 30 credit hours are completed, so a student could take 29 credit hours during the first two semesters and then another 15 before the GPA is calculated. 4 Merit aid programs have also been found to alter the composition of the student body (Dynarski 2004; and Cornwell, Mustard and Sridhar 2006). As a result, a merit aid program could increase the graduation rate at in-state institutions if the program attracted additional high quality students who are more likely to graduate, or reduce the graduation rate if marginal (but still merit aid eligible) students enroll in more demanding public colleges. Our interest, however, is in whether merit programs affect the likelihood an individual graduates from college and not in where they graduate from college. 5 There is, however, a more developed literature estimating the effects of state merit aid programs on college enrollment including Dynarski (2000, 2004); Cornwell et al. (2006); Singell, Waddell and Curs (2006); Goodman (2008); Orsuwan and Heck (2009); Farrell and Kienzl, (2009); Zhang and Ness (2010); Winters (2012); and Hawley 2

6 Three of these find positive and statistically significant effects, but the other two do not. Two of the papers rely on 2000 Census data to measure the effect of the merit aid programs in Arkansas and Georgia (Dynarski 2008 and Sjoquist and Winters 2012a) and three use state agency data to explore the effects of programs in Georgia (Henry, Rubenstein, and Bugler (HRB) 2004), West Virginia (Scott-Clayton 2011), and Tennessee (Bruce and Carruthers 2011). Dynarski finds a positive and statistically significant effect on the graduation rate, while Sjoquist and Winters do not. HRB and Scott-Clayton find a positive effect while Bruce and Carruthers find no effect. In this paper we first employ an approach similar to that used by Dynarski (2008) and Sjoquist and Winters (2012a) but consider all 25 states that we identified as having adopted merit-based aid programs between 1991 and Our second approach uses agency data for Georgia to revisit HRB s findings and to contrast the results for Georgia with those for West Virginia and Tennessee. Our second approach uses a cohort analysis similar to Scott-Clayton (2011) and Bruce and Carruthers (2011). Dynarski (2008) treats the adoption of merit aid programs as natural experiments. Her treatment group consists of students who finished high school in Arkansas and Georgia after the programs were adopted, while the comparison group consists of students in states that did not have merit aid programs. Since she does not know who received merit aid, she measures treatment by whether the student would have been exposed to a merit-based aid program while in high school. She uses the 1% PUMS file from the 2000 Census of Population and finds that the merit-based aid programs had a positive and statistically significant effect on college degree completion of about three percentage points. Sjoquist and Winters (2012a) revisited Dynarski (2008). Employing the same procedures as Dynarski but using the 5% PUMS they obtain much and Rork (2012). This literature typically finds a significantly positive effect on the probability of attending college in-state but inconsistent effects on the overall probability of attending college. 3

7 smaller coefficients. Furthermore, using more appropriate inference procedures for clustering, coefficient estimates for both the 1% and 5% PUMS are no longer statistically significant. HRB (2004) explore the effect of Georgia s HOPE program on several academic outcomes, including graduation. Their treatment group consisted of 1,915 HOPE recipients who graduated high school in 1995 and whose overall high school GPAs were close to 3.0. The 1,915 HOPE recipients were matched with a group of non-hope recipients who had the same core course GPA and who made the same initial choice of type of higher education institution (research universities; regional universities; 4-year colleges; 2-year colleges). 6 HRB estimate separate logistic regressions for students at 2-year and 4-year colleges, where the dependent variable is whether the student accumulated sufficient credit hours to graduate between 1995 and fall of They find that the odds of graduating within four years from a 2-year college is almost twice as high for HOPE recipients, while it is 72 percent greater at 4-year colleges. Scott-Clayton (2011) uses student-level data to explore the effect of West Virginia s PROMISE program on several academic outcomes, including graduation. Eligibility for the PROMISE program requires a 3.0 high school GPA both overall and for core courses as well as at least a 21 on the ACT (or 1000 on the SAT). Students must maintain a 3.0 GPA in college and take a full course load to remain eligible. She has data on four cohorts of students entering a public college in West Virginia between fall 2000 and fall 2003, and is able to track the students for 5 years post-matriculation. Scott-Clayton uses two empirical approaches, a fuzzy regression discontinuity design using ACT test score as the basis for the discontinuity, and a preand post-promise cohort analysis. For the regression discontinuity design she finds that 6 HOPE eligibility at that time was determined by a student s overall high school GPA. However, a student GPA for core courses was also calculated. 4

8 PROMISE increased the 4-year graduation rate by 9.4 percentage points and the 5-year rate by 4.5 percentage points. The cohort analysis results in somewhat smaller effects. Bruce and Carruthers (2011) use student-level data to explore the effect of Tennessee s HOPE Scholarship program on several academic outcomes, including graduation. Eligibility for the Tennessee aid program requires an overall high school GPA of 3.0 or ACT score of 21 or more (or a 980 SAT score or higher). Students must maintain a 2.75 college GPA after 24 and 48 attempted hours and 3.0 after 72 and 96 attempted hours. They have four cohorts ( ) of students who enrolled in a Tennessee public four-year college or university, and are able to track students through the school year. Thus, they can determine the four-year graduation rate for just one cohort. Bruce and Carruthers use two empirical approaches, a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and a difference-in-difference approach. For the RD design, they use first time ACT score as an instrument to estimate the probability of obtaining HOPE Scholarship. For the difference-in-difference model they use data for all students entering in , i.e. before HOPE, and through For both approaches they find that HOPE had no effect on the probability of graduating within 4 years. As noted above we utilize two different approaches to examine the effects of state meritbased aid programs on the probability of college completion. Our first approach follows Dynarski (2008) and Sjoquist and Winters (2012a) [jointly referenced as DSW]. There are several limitations with the analyses in DSW. First, having only two states with policy changes resulted in relatively noisy estimates, which partially explains the observed differences in the measured effect when using the 1% PUMS versus the 5% PUMS. Additionally, Arkansas program had a significant income cap for eligibility that limited the number of recipients and the potential effects of the program. Georgia also had income caps during the first two years but 5

9 they were much less restrictive and were eliminated in However, because the Georgia HOPE Scholarship began in 1993 and DSW only use data from the 2000 census, only four age cohorts in Georgia were exposed to the treatment: persons ages as of April 1, The full effects of HOPE, therefore, may not have had time to manifest themselves for Georgia because many persons ages are still in college. Thus DSW provided relatively weak tests. In this paper we combine the 2000 Census with the American Community Survey, which allows us to estimate treatment effects for all 25 states with merit-based aid programs compared to just the two states considered by DSW. However, as noted above, some of these programs are stronger than others, and thus our preferred specification estimates merit effects for the 9 states that we identify as having strong merit aid programs. The longer data series also allows us to examine effects at older ages. Our primary sample examines the effects of state merit programs on education outcomes of persons ages 24-30, although we also consider ages in an attempt to measure the effect on the four-year graduation rate. We believe that examining many different treatment states and many different birth cohorts makes our analysis a considerable improvement over DSW. Our approach allows us to estimate merit effects much more precisely than DSW and helps resolve the current uncertainty over the effects of state merit aid programs on educational outcomes. Previewing the results using the Census/ACS we find strong robust evidence that state merit aid programs had no meaningful effect on the higher education outcomes of young people in their states. Our second approach uses administrative data for the University System of Georgia (USG) similar to data used by HRB and employs a cohort analysis similar to that used by Scott- Clayton (2011). We use student records for two pre- and two post-hope cohorts of first time USG freshmen to conduct a pre- and post-hope cohort analysis. Controlling for sex, race, 6

10 ethnicity, high school attended and SAT scores, we find no significant difference in degree completion between the pre- and post-hope cohorts. Our results using USG data, therefore, reinforce the results using Census/ACS data, but are contrary to the findings of HRB. We believe our approach is an improvement over HRB s. While HOPE recipients in HRB have an overall GPA close to 3.0, HRB do not observe the overall GPA for non-recipients and do not know how close their overall GPAs are to 3.0. While HRB argue that having equal core GPAs makes the students of similar quality, in fact the mean SAT score for non-recipients is 47 points lower, and half of non-recipients are required to take remedial course work but only 34 percent of recipients are. This suggests that the two groups have different academic ability. II. Empirical Framework for Census/ACS Analysis Data We first use public use microdata samples (PUMS) from the 2000 decennial census long form questionnaire and American Community Survey (ACS) available at IPUMS (Ruggles et al. 2010). For 2000 we combine the 1% and 5% PUMS, which are files released separately and include one percent and five percent of the U.S. population. Sjoquist and Winters (2012a) find non-trivial differences in education levels in Arkansas and Georgia between the 1% and 5% PUMS for 2000, so we combine the two instead of using only one. However, the results to follow are robust to using only the 1% or only the 5% PUMS for 2000 and are robust to excluding the year 2000 data from the analysis. The census long form was discontinued after 2000 and replaced with the annually conducted American Community Survey. 7 For years , the ACS is a roughly 0.4 percent sample of the population and for the ACS is a 7 One subtle difference is that while the Census was conducted for a single point in time (April 1), the ACS is administered continuously throughout the year. 7

11 one percent sample of the U.S. population. We use Census provided weights in our analysis, so that each year is given roughly equal weight. 8 Our primary interest is in the effects of merit programs on college degree completion. However, we also consider the effect of merit programs on the likelihood of completing any college. Merit programs could have short run timing effects by encouraging some people to enroll at younger ages who would have eventually matriculated later, but our analysis measures longer run effects. Our second education outcome is whether an individual has completed any college degree including an associate s degree or higher. However, there is a considerable difference in both the private and social benefits between completing an associate s degree and completing a bachelor s degree or higher. Thus, our third outcome is whether an individual has completed a bachelor s degree or higher. One might also be interested in whether state merit aid programs affected completion of post-baccalaureate degrees. In results not shown, we do consider the effects of merit programs on graduate degrees and find small insignificant effects. However, since merit programs cannot be used for graduate education we do not focus on advanced degrees. The PUMS also include information on an individual s age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and state of birth; we use these in our analysis. For our baseline analysis we restrict the sample to persons between the ages of 24 and 30. We exclude persons below age 24 because we are primarily interested in longer run effects of merit programs on college attendance and completion and not on whether merit programs altered the timing of these outcomes. The upper age cutoff is more arbitrary but was chosen in part because only a few states adopted programs early enough that persons exposed to a merit program were older than age 30 during our sample 8 The weights in each sample sum to the total population in that year. We also reweight the 2000 PUMS to avoid giving that year double weight since we are using two samples instead of one. The results below are qualitatively robust to not using weights. 8

12 period. The results are robust to varying the upper and lower age cutoffs, suggesting that meritbased aid programs did not alter the timing of degree completion. We also exclude from the sample individuals with imputed information for age, education or state of birth, but results are robust to including these individuals. Similarly to Dynarski (2008) we also collect information on a few state level variables intended to control for macroeconomic conditions in an individual s state of birth for the year the individual was 18 years of age. First, previous researchers have found that larger cohorts of college age persons in a state have lower college enrollment and degree completion rates, likely because states face some supply constraints in providing higher education (Card and Lemieux 2000; Bound and Turner 2007). We obtain data from the U.S. Census Bureau on the number of 18 year olds in the state in a given year (measured for July) and convert to logs and use this to control for cohort size in a state and year. The unemployment rate might also affect an individual s decision to attend college because a more difficult job market can reduce a young person s opportunity cost of attending college and make them more likely to enroll. We collect state by year unemployment rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and include this as another control variable. We also control for median household income and the college wage premium in the individual s state of birth the year the individual was 18 years old, both computed using the March Current Population Survey (CPS). Greater household income suggests greater parental resources that make college more attainable for marginal students. The college wage premium is computed as the logarithmic difference in annual wage and salary income between persons with only a bachelor s degree and persons with only a high school diploma, using linear regression to control for age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin; the college wage premium CPS sample is also restricted to paid employees ages who work at least 35 9

13 hours per week and 35 weeks during the year. The college wage premium signals to young people the potential benefits of attending college with a higher wage premium making college more appealing. Research Design We follow a treatment and control research design. The treatment group consists of individuals who were exposed to a broad-based state merit aid program when they graduated high school and the control group consists of individuals who were not. Unfortunately, we do not know when and where individuals graduated high school. We follow previous literature (e.g. Dynarski 2008, Hickman 2009) and assign individuals to the merit program treatment group based on state of birth and year of birth, where year of birth is computed as the year of the survey minus age at the time of the survey. If an individual was born in a state that adopted a merit program and turned 18 after the program was implemented, they are assigned to the treatment group; if not they are part of the control group. The control group, therefore, includes both individuals born in states that never adopted merit programs and individuals born in meritadopting states but turning 18 before the program was implemented. Because some individuals attend high school outside their state of birth and some do not graduate high school at age 18, our treatment assignment will have some degree of measurement error. We take up the issue of measurement error in more detail later. As noted above we identified 25 states that implemented a merit scholarship program between 1991 and 2004 (Table 1). 9 Eligibility requirements are typically based on high school GPA, often requiring a 3.0 or higher, but there is often a standardized test score requirement and 9 Delaware, Massachusetts, Montana, and Wyoming also implemented programs in 2005 and 2006 but these do not affect our main sample because persons 18 years old in 2005 and 2006 are only 23 and 22 years old in 2010, the last year of our sample. 10

14 occasionally an income/asset requirement. Some states allow students at in-state private colleges and universities to be eligible for a scholarship while others restrict eligibility to students enrolled at public colleges and universities in the state. Renewal requirements are typically based on college GPA but can also include minimum course load requirements as in West Virginia. Award values range from $500 per year to full tuition and fees at in-state public colleges and universities plus a book stipend. A few states also have multiple award levels based on different eligibility criteria. Dynarski (2004), Heller (2004), and the Brookings Institution 10 provide useful details for most states. One might be interested in examining the effects of specific merit program characteristics on educational outcomes, but there are problems with doing so. First, there is a dimensionality problem since many states have relatively unique characteristics. Similarly, there is a classification problem because converting program requirements to usable data requires considerable information and a fairly large number of arbitrary classification decisions to be made; this is greatly complicated by the fact that many states changed their program s characteristics several times since inception. The Georgia HOPE Scholarship provides a useful illustration; a detailed history is provided by Sjoquist and Walker (2010) so we only discuss a few important changes. The Georgia HOPE scholarship was initially only available to students with a family income below $66,000 per year but the income limit was increased to $100,000 in 1994 and eliminated in HOPE eligibility was initially based on a student s overall high school GPA but in Fall 2000 Georgia switched to a more stringent core course GPA that excluded electives and reduced the percentage of students eligible for HOPE. The program also initially required students to complete the FAFSA and the amount of the HOPE scholarship was 10 Brookings Institution data file is available at 11

15 reduced by any Pell Grant award. However, the Pell offset was eliminated in 2000 allowing eligible students to receive both a Pell Grant and a full HOPE Scholarship. Over time other changes were made as well, including allowing students to regain HOPE after previously losing it, allowing home schooled students to be eligible, increasing the value of the award at Georgia private schools, and setting a cap on the total credit hours for which HOPE would pay. Instead of trying to isolate the effects of specific merit program characteristics we adopt a much simpler approach that uses a dummy variable equal to one if an individual was exposed to a merit program. However, we recognize that some of these state programs are relatively small and not likely to have a sizable impact on education outcomes. Based on program characteristics we identify nine states that adopted strong merit programs: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia. The other 16 states are considered to have weak programs. The nine strong states are defined as such because they have large broad-based programs that provide relatively large awards. Most of the other merit states have relatively strict criteria that limit eligibility to either the very best students or students with relatively low income. Two of the 16 states, Michigan and Mississippi, also have broad-based programs but are excluded from the group of strong states because they offer relatively small awards to most students. 11 Michigan s program which was discontinued after 2008 provided a one-time award of $2500 and the Mississippi TAG program offered only $500 for the first two years of college and $1000 for the third and fourth years. The strong programs provide scholarships large enough to cover full tuition or nearly full tuition at public 11 Dynarksi (2004) lists 13 states with eligibility criteria such that at least 30 percent of high school students hav[e] grades and test scores high enough to qualify for a scholarship (p. 65). These include the nine strong states, Michigan, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Maryland. However, Arkansas and Maryland enforced income limits that rendered them considerably less broad-based than the other

16 colleges and universities in the state. The results below are qualitatively robust to several alternative definitions of strong states such as including Michigan and Mississippi. In results not shown, we did estimate a regression equation that included a dummy variable equal to one if the state required the student to take a full load to receive a merit scholarship and results were similar to those using the simple merit dummy. Later, we also estimate separate merit effects for each merit state; doing so could help shed light on which program characteristics matter if any. Our preferred specification for assessing the effects of broad-based merit scholarship programs on higher education outcomes is to compare states with strong merit programs to states with no merit program. Weak program states receive only a partial treatment compared to the full treatment of strong program states and are less likely to have large impacts on educational outcomes. Thus, including weak merit states in the treatment group is likely to attenuate coefficient estimates toward zero. However, they do receive some treatment so including weak merit states in the control group is also likely to attenuate coefficient estimates toward zero. The purest test is to exclude weak merit states from the analysis and estimate the effect of state merit programs based on states with strong programs and states with no program. We do, however, examine the robustness of our results to including weak merit states in the analysis. For each of the three binary educational outcomes that we consider as dependent variables, we estimate linear probability models (LPM) as follows: =1 =Γ +Π , where Γ includes state of birth fixed effects, Π includes year of birth fixed effects, includes dummy variables for individual characteristics including sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age, includes the state of birth characteristics at age 18 discussed previously, and is an 13

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