Gary Doran

Advanced Stats Report: Cal

This is the last article in our Advanced Stats Report series, as we look at the following graphs exhibiting how the Sun Devils’ and their fourth North Division and final regular season foe, the Cal Bears, match-up by the numbers.

Offensive Production

In the five games the Bear won in the 2014 season, they averaged 50 points per game

In the four games the Bear played against ranked opponents in the 2014 season, they scored an average of 37.5 points while only scoring an average of roughly a point more against their eight unranked opponents at 38.6 points per game

In the 2014 season, the Cal Bears scored the exact same amount of points as they gave up in the in the third quarter and the same amount as they gave up in the fourth quarter/overtime

In the 2014 season, the Bears scored five rushing touchdowns on third down runs when they only ran the ball 69 times on that down

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Bears offense threw 18 touchdown passes, in the next four games they threw ten touchdown passes and in the final four games they threw only nine touchdown passes

Even though the Cal Bear offense may seem to be a pass happy offense, in the 2014 season the offense averaged running the ball 45 percent of the time and passing the ball 55 percent of the time

In the final game of the year in the 2014 season against BYU, the Bear offense ran over 100 plays

In the seven games in 2014 that the Cal Bears lost, they averaged gaining over 460 yards per game

In the four games against ranked opponents in the 2014 season, the Bear offense averaged gaining over 470 yards per game

In the second quarter in their games in the 2014 season, the Cal Bear runners averaged 5.34 yards per carry, while they only averaged 3.57 on all the other downs

In the 2014 season, the Cal Bear runners averaged 4.10 yards per carry in their opponents’ red zones

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Cal Bear passers averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt, while in the other eight games that season they averaged only 6.8 yards per pass attempt

During the 2014 season when the Bears were between their own goal line and their own 20 yard line, they averaged gaining 9.65 yards per pass attempt, and 7.55 per pass attempt everywhere else on the field

In the four games played in October of the 2014 season, the Cal Bear passers completed 65.2 percent of their passes, whereas in the next four games played in Nov., the completion percentage dropped to only 57.7 percent

In the 2014 season, the Cal Bear passers completed 61.4 percent of their passes when they won, and a very similar 61.5 percent of their passes when the lost

In the 2014 season, the Cal Bear passers threw seven interceptions in their six home games and only three interceptions in their six road games

In the 2014 season, the Cal Bear passers threw eight interceptions against eight unranked teams, and only two interceptions against four ranked opponents

In games against ranked opponents during the 2014 season, the Cal Bears only converted about a third of their third down opportunities, while against unranked teams, they converted over 50 percent of their third down chances

In their games against the two LA schools during the 2014 season, the Cal Bears only converted 27.6 percent of their third down opportunities, while against the other seven conference teams, they converted 47.2 percent of their third down chances

Against the four ranked opponents the Bears played in the 2014 season, they scored red zone touchdowns in all 13 trips they made into those opponents’ red zone

In the six games played on the road during the 2014 season, the Bear offense scored a red zone touchdown over 82 percent of the time they got into their opponents’ red zone (19 out of 23 times)

Defensive Output

During the 2014 season, the Bears gave up an average of over 44 points per game in conference play, whereas they only surrendered just under 27 points a game in non-conference games

In the nine conference games in the 2014 season, the Bears were unable to hold any opponent to less than 30 points in a game

During the 2014 season, the Bears were pretty consistent in giving points fairly evenly over the four quarter of their games

During the 2014 season, the Cal Bears gave up 264 more points than rival Stanford did, while also playing one game less than the Cardinal

In the 2014 season, the Bears gave up eight touchdowns in three of their twelve games

The Cal Bears averaged surrendering five and a quarter touchdowns per game in the 2014 season

During their back-to-back games against South Divisions foes Arizona and Colorado, the Cal defense faced more than 100 plays in each game

In the four conference games played in Oct in the 2014 season, the Bears allowed an average of almost 590 yards per game

In the last three games of the regular season, the Bears allowed an average of 445 yards per game, whereas in the first eight regular season games the Bears allowed an average of 533 yards per game

In the third quarter of their games in the 2014 season, the Bear defense allowed opponents 4.95 yards per carry on 111 carries, then in the fourth quarter, also on 111 carries, the average dropped to only 3.16 yards per carry

On second down in the games played in 2014, the Bears allowed 4.83 yards per carry, and only 3.55 yards per carry on all the other downs

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Bears gave up an average of 6.2 yards per pass attempt, while in the next eight games they gave up an average of 9.5 yards per game

In the third quarter of their games during the 2014 season, the Bears gave up an average of 9.1 yards per pass attempt, while allowing 7.8 yards per attempt in the other three quarters

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Cal Bears allowed opponents to complete 60.4 percent of their passes, while in the next eight games they allowed 69.1 percent of opponents’ passes to be completed

In five of the nine conference games in the 2014 season, the Cal defense allowed 70 percent or more of opponents’ passes to be completed

In conference play during the 2014 season, the team that had the lowest completion percentage against the Cal defense was Conference Champion: the Oregon Ducks with a 60 percent completion rate

– In the four games against ranked opponents during the 2014 season, the Bear defense allowed 41.2 percent of opponents’ third down opportunities to be converted to a first down, while in the eight games against unranked opponents, the defense allowed about the same percentage at a 42.4 third down conversion rate.

In their game against UCLA in Oct last year, the Cal Bear defense allowed the Bruins to convert only two on 13 third down opportunities

In the five games the Bears won during the 2014 season, they allowed their opponents to score a red zone touchdown on 75 percent of their red zone opportunities, while in the seven games they lost, they only allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 58 percent of their red zone opportunities

In the first four games of the 2014 season, the Bear defense allowed opponents to score red zone touchdowns 60 percent of the time, while in the next eight games, they allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 71 percent of their red zone chances

In the games against ranked opponents during the 2014 season, the Bears registered an average of 5.5 TFLs per game, while in games against unranked opponents that season, the average dropped to 4.1 TFLs per game

In games during the 2014 season against North Division foes, the Bears averaged 3.4 TFLs per game, whereas in games against South Division foes, the average increased to 6.5 TFLs per game

In their game against Arizona in the 2014 season, the Cal defense registered three sacks, while they only got five more sack against the other eight conference foes during the season

In the conference games during the 2014 season, the Bear defense registered a sack once every 52.5 pass attempts, whereas in their non-conference games, the defense registered a sack once every 15.5 pass attempts

In the 2014 season, half of all the interceptions the Bears registered happened in the second quarter

When an opponent faced a third down and ten or more yards to go, the Cal defense intercepted four of 36 pass attempts or one every nine pass attempts, whereas the interception rate in all the other circumstances was one every 63.5 pass attempts

What the Numbers Say

The offense has proven that it can move the ball and score points, as the Bears were second in scoring and passing offense and third in total offense in a conference known for its offensive prowess. Yet the offense did fade as the season wore on in that the first five games the Bears only scored under 45 points once, and in the last seven games, they only scored 45 points once.

Teams cannot win games with any consistency when they give up an average of around 40 points per game, no matter how good the offense seems to be. The Bears did a decent job of limiting opponents’ running game last year, but just seem to be too generous when it came to the pass. Giving up 42 passing touchdowns in a season will lose a lot of games.

About Gary Doran

Gary graduated from ASU many years ago. After careers working in banking, finance and the financial administration of academic research funding, he is now interested in utilizing his passion for numbers towards two things he thoroughly loves; Arizona State University and college football. He is looking forward to finding the “stories” buried within the numbers on a football stat sheet. He has gone to ASU football games all the way back to the days of Frank Kush and the WAC. He has been married to an amazing ASU graduate for almost forty years, and they currently live in Ventura, CA. Although this may disqualify him from talking football, he and his wife enjoy the practice of yoga and dancing the Argentine Tango. Ole!