With meetings between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping underway on a private estate in California, the world is waiting to see if the relationship between the world’s preeminent power and fast growing rival will be Sunnylands or Badlands.

To help make sense of what’s at stake, China Real Time enlisted the help of four leading China watchers. Cheng Li is an authority on China’s politics at the Brookings Institution. Susan Shirk served in the Clinton administration with responsibility for China and is now a professor at UC San Diego. Jin Canrong is associate dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. And Nick Lardy is a leading expert on China’s economy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Edited excerpts of what they told us:

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Cheng Li

Whereas Xi Jinping’s predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin waited until late in their first terms to visit the U.S., both the Xi and Obama administrations realized the importance of connecting early in Xi’s presidency and not leaving critical issues like North Korea, cyber security and economic rebalancing unaddressed for too long.

The timing of the meeting is significant: not only is the Sino-American relationship at a crossroads, but both leaders are also facing crossroads domestically. Xi finds himself nearing the end of his political honeymoon and Obama is facing “second term blues.” Both Presidents (especially Xi) could use a successful diplomatic visit to regroup and regain their mojo at home.

From Obama’s beer summits to Xi’s call to serve only “four dishes and a soup” at official banquets, both leaders have been associated with informality at home. By agreeing to this summit, they have shown their willingness to apply that informal approach to bilateral meetings in an attempt to develop a more personal, more cooperative and more candid relationship with their counterpart. Luckily for both, the weather forecast for Rancho Mirage predicts clear skies, so there’s no need to worry about who should hold the umbrella.

Susan Shirk

The Sunnylands summit could shape the future course of US-China relations — not by any specific agreements, but by starting to weave a human connection between the two leaders. It is the first time that the Chinese and American leaders have the chance to spend an extended period of time together in wide-ranging unscripted conversation. (Even Mao and Nixon didn’t spend as many hours together. )

The talks should enable Presidents Obama and Xi to start to understand one another as individual people; to develop the rapport necessary to manage tough policy differences or crises; and to build the mutual confidence needed to make compromises without fear of being taken advantage of.

I don’t expect any specific outcomes on North Korea or any other regional issues. But as presidents Obama and Xi discuss how to prevent a new Cold War or worse, they are likely to share their hopes and fears for the Asia-Pacific region, where their interests both converge and diverge.

Jin Canrong

The U.S.-China relationship has grown complicated over the past few years. It’s a characteristic of the United States to be on guard against whichever country is No. 2, regardless of political system. In the 20th century, there were three No. 2s — Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan — and the U.S. was wary of all of them. Sometimes it sees them as an adversary, sometimes as an enemy. Now that China is No. 2, the U.S. is warier and that’s made things difficult. They’ve never been in this position before. Then you add in the fact that there are a lot issues between the two countries: You still have the old three “T” issues — Taiwan, Tibet and trade — but now there are a bunch of new ones, in particular regional leadership competition.

The U.S. expectations in this meeting are different from China’s. They want to see progress on specific issues: North Korea, Asian maritime disputes, military-to-military contacts, cybersecurity and climate change. They’ve been very clear on that. China’s expectations are much more abstract: trust, strategy, principles. But I don’t we’ll see any blood. They’ll talk about the U.S. concerns a little and they’ll talk about what China wants. I expect this to be an effective meeting. At least on China’s concerns, everyone should be able to come to some sort of common understanding.

Nick Lardy

I hope they don’t run through a laundry list of issues, that’s best left to the Strategic & Economic Dialogue. My hope is that they spend time on defining how the relationship works at the strategic level.

The yuan has never been at the top of the agenda for the highest levels of the U.S. administration. They’ve always been playing defense, aiming to stop the situation getting worse. China’s reduced current account surplus further reduces the importance of the issue.

About China Real Time Report

China Real Time Report is a vital resource for an expanding global community trying to keep up with a country changing minute by minute. The site offers quick insight and sharp analysis from the wide network of Dow Jones reporters across Greater China, including Dow Jones Newswires’ specialists and The Wall Street Journal’s award-winning team. It also draws on the insights of commentators close to the hot topic of the day in law, policy, economics and culture. Its editors can be reached at chinarealtime@wsj.com.