Running Back and Wide Receiver Gold Mining – Week 17

Welcome to week 17. The graphs below summarize the projections from a variety of sources. This week’s summary includes projections from: CBS: CBS Average, Yahoo Sports, NFL, FOX Sports, NumberFire, FantasySharks, ESPN and FantasyFootballNerd. The data for this article were collected on 12/29/15. For more details on gold mining and how to interpret the graphs below, see Chad’s post explaining gold mining. You can see seasonal and weekly projections, including floor and ceiling, for all players at all positions using our Projections Tool.

Standard Scoring League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Devonta Freeman, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Andrews, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch are the five players with the highest ceiling (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Darren Sproles, Alfred Blue, Ryan Mathews, Chris Polk and Jay Ajayi are the players with the highest floor (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Tim Hightower, T.J. Yeldon, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Pierre Thomas are the five players with the lowest floor this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Point-per-Reception League Running Back Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Brandon Bolden, LeSean McCoy, Antonio Andrews, Marshawn Lynch and Travaris Cadet are the five players with the highest ceiling (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Todd Gurley, Chris Ivory, Alfred Blue, Ryan Mathews and Chris Polk are the players with the highest floor (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Tim Hightower, T.J. Yeldon, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Pierre Thomas are the five players with the lowest floor this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Standard Scoring League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Julio Jones, Travis Benjamin, Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker and Devin Funchess are the five players with the highest ceiling (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

A.J. Green, Brandin Cooks, Tavon Austin, Willie Snead and Donte Moncrief are the players with the highest floor (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Odell Beckham, Alshon Jeffery, Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson and Kendall Wright are the five players with the lowest floor this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

Point-per-Reception League Wide Receiver Roundup

From the graph below notice that:

Travis Benjamin, Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker, DeSean Jackson and Harry Douglas are the five players with the highest ceiling (as measured by the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts). For these players, some projections are placing much higher valuations than others. If you are projected to lose this week by quite a few points and are looking for a risky play that may tip the balance in your favor, these are players to consider.

Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate, Willie Snead, Tavon Austin and Marvin Jones are the players with the highest floor (as measured by the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts), which suggests that while their median projection might not be great, there is less uncertainty concerning how poorly they may perform. So, if you are likely to win by a lot and want to reduce your downside risk, these players may deserve extra attention.

On the other hand, Odell Beckham, Alshon Jeffery, Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson and Kendall Wright are the five players with the lowest floor this week. If you are planning on starting them, it may be prudent to investigate why some projections have such low expectations for these players.

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6 Comments

Thank you for providing these projections each week. In this week’s DraftKings Custom Rankings projection, the Eagles upper (ceiling) projection is 32.4, which looks like an error when compared to the rest of the DST upper values.

I really curious on the software you have come up with. Is their a way to look at an individual players statistics to hone in on safety (floor) and upside (ceiling) during the playoffs. I’m very new to dfs and just finished reading an article called an introduction to roster construction in daily fantasy football. Due to the many inricasies involved it is so difficult to put a good line up together. I guess other stats they say are important is snap count redzone targets matchup…I wish their was one site I could get all of this info