Trouble Brewing for Federal Tories in Edmonton

Province-wide the federal Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta, with 54% of the decided vote, but these province-wide returns mask a brewing storm in the provincial capital.

In the Capital-region, the CPC holds a thin lead over Thomas Mulcair’s NDP – 42% to 37%, but within Edmonton-proper the two are statistically tied (NDP lead with 41% and CPC 40%).

In Edmonton, the NDP are cannibalizing the Liberal vote, making the contests in these ridings far more competitive than they were last election.

The CPC currently hold 6 of 8 seats in Edmonton (former CPC MP Brent Rathgeber currently sits as an Independent), and redistribution adding an additional 2 seats to the city for the 2015 General Election. With national polls showing the NDP surging, this fall’s General Election is expected to be highly competitive, and with the outcome far from clear at this point these Alberta ridings become more strategically important for both the CPC and NDP.

The federal election is still months away, and without question the campaign will have an impact on the outcome in these ridings. This caveat noted, these early results show the Capital-region may be a real battleground for the federal parties in the fall campaign.