posted at 11:25 am on February 11, 2011 by Allahpundit

That’s the word from Suleiman, as of 15 minutes ago. Live video shows Tahrir Square in ecstasy, Egyptian flags ubiquitous among the crowd. A question for you to chew on as I scramble for updates: Was yesterday’s “I’ll hand over power but won’t leave” speech a trial balloon to see how protesters would react, with the military warning him in advance that he’d have to leave today if the crowds rejected that arrangement? Or did Mubarak fully intend to stay on until September but was forcibly ousted this morning after someone high up got nervous at the size of the demonstrations? I speculated yesterday that there was an eleventh-hour power struggle that saved him; it’d be weird if the dynamics of that struggle shifted so dramatically within just 24 hours.

Full statement from Vice-President Suleiman: “In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody.”

Says a protester, “We did it. I cannot believe it. Mubarak the dictator has gone. And the Egyptian people will forever be free.” Let’s hope so; most Americans aren’t as confident. Lots of updates coming, needless to say, so stand by.

Update: A new update at the BBC blog linked above notes that the Egyptian constitution doesn’t allow for power to devolve to the military but rather to the speaker of parliament if the president steps down. This is, in other words, a military coup; the question I posed above is simply whether it’s a soft one, with Mubarak agreeing that he has no cards left to play, or a hard one, with the military tossing him under the bus. It sure sounded like a coup this morning, too:

As protesters were swarming into the streets Friday morning for what was expected to be the biggest and most volatile demonstrations in the three-week revolt here, the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces issued a statement over state television and radio indicating that the military, not Mr. Mubarak, was in effective control of the country. It was unclear whether the military would take meaningful steps toward democracy or begin a military dictatorship…

The statement Friday by the military’s Supreme Council struck a very different tone and appeared to assert that the military, not President Mubarak, was now in control. The military said that first it would end the 30-year-old emergency law — used to detain without trial— “as soon as the current circumstances are over.” The protesters have demanded that the law be eliminated immediately, before any talks about ending the uprising.

The first test of new reforms will be whether they make good on their promise to lift the emergency law ASAP. The second test will be deciding on a new president. It’s unclear to me what Suleiman’s status is right now: If the military’s high council is formally in charge, is he the power behind the throne making executive decisions? Is he the de facto head of the council itself? Or is he out too along with Mubarak?

Update: Here’s the live feed of Tahrir Square from Al Jazeera Egypt. Updates continue below. Click the image to watch.

Great news for the administration/president. People will remember , despite some fumbles yesterday, that the President played an excellent hand, walked the right line and that his statement last night was potentially decisive in brining this issue to a close. The situation remains complicated and delicate going forward, but this is a huge affirmation of the President’s leadership on the international stage.

Update: Ah, here’s a great clip from Fox Insider — the reaction in Tahrir Square at the moment of the announcement. Classic.

Update: RCP has CNN video of Suleiman making the announcement. Fox reported earlier this morning that an important statement would be forthcoming from Mubarak himself, but he’s nowhere to be found so far today. (In fact, he reportedly left Cairo this morning for Sharm el-Sheikh.) More evidence, perhaps, that this was a hard coup and not a soft one?

Update: Your Orwellian moment of the day came earlier this morning too in (where else?) Tehran:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Egypt’s popular uprising shows a new Middle East is emerging, one that will have no signs of Israel and US “interference.”…

Ahmadinejad says Egyptians have the right to live in freedom and choose their own government.

Middle East channel Al Arabiya reports that the Higher Military Council, which has taken control from Hosni Mubarak, will fire Mubarak’s Cabinet, suspend both houses of Parliament and rule with the head of the supreme constitutional court.

Reuters is quoting a military source as saying Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi will be the head of the ruling military council.

Suleiman’s out too, then?

Update: I’m hearing on Twitter that Obama will speak at 1:30 p.m. He won’t take credit for Mubarak’s departure, natch, but that’s only because his spin doctors are already trying to do it for him. As the media conveniently forgets the past 17 days of bumbling statements and shifting demands from our foreign policy braintrust, here’s a vivid reminder from the Times (via Mediaite) of just how lame our “intelligence” wing has been during this episode. In a sane world, Panetta would be out on his ass — along with James “Largely Secular” Clapper:

Mr. Obama watched Mr. Mubarak’s speech on board Air Force One, returning from a trip to Michigan, the press secretary, Robert Gibbs, said. As soon as he arrived at the White House, Mr. Obama huddled with his national security aides. The administration appeared as taken aback by Mr. Mubarak’s speech as the crowds in Tahrir Square. The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Leon E. Panetta, testified before the House of Representatives on Thursday morning that there was a “strong likelihood” that Mr. Mubarak would step down by the end of the day.

American officials said Mr. Panetta was basing his statement not on secret intelligence but on media broadcasts, which began circulating before he sat down before the House Intelligence Committee. But a senior administration official said Mr. Obama had also expected that Egypt was on the cusp of dramatic change. Speaking at Northern Michigan University in Marquette, he said, “We are witnessing history unfold,” adding, “America will do everything we can to support an orderly and genuine transition to democracy.”

The Journal actually headlined an early-morning story about Egypt, “Crisis Puts White House in Disarray.” Then, mysteriously, that headline was changed to “Crisis Flummoxes White House.” Ben Smith of Politico speculates that the White House might have actually phoned the paper and objected to the earlier hed, accurate though it was. That’s how sensitive they are about how embarrassing this situation has become to them. In fact, I’ll end this update with a choice quote from that Journal story from Steve Clemons, a liberal who’s attended two meetings on Egypt with National Security Council members: “The mystique of America’s superpower status has been shattered.”

Update: One of the cold comforts about military dominance in Egypt is that it makes a Muslim Brotherhood takeover unlikely, at least in the short term. The army simply has too much at stake — especially financially — to let Islamists spoil their racket. The downside of that, though? It has too much at stake to let Egyptian entrepreneurs spoil it either, which means economic stagnation and political discontent for years to come. Fred Kaplan:

As in many undemocratic countries, the military is more than just the military. Egypt’s officer corps is said to own or operate vast networks of commercial enterprises, including water, construction, cement, olive oil, the hotel and gasoline industries—in all, about one-third of the country’s economy—as well as vast chunks of seaside property…

The army’s material interests don’t mesh so well with the premises of a thriving middle-class society. And the absence of such a society—the combination of large numbers of well-educated young people and few jobs to suit their talents—has no doubt fueled these last two weeks of protest.

That same WikiLeaks cable from the U.S. embassy in Cairo reported that the military views efforts at privatization “as a threat to its economic position, and therefore generally opposes economic reforms.” To the extent the military does retain power in Egypt, the people’s “rising expectations” may be frustrated, regardless of the outcome of this current clash. Whatever happens in the coming days and weeks, Egypt, once the emblem of Arab stability, might be locked in the dynamics of revolution for a long time to come.

The above is also entirely true of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which controls hugely lucrative industries inside that country. The trick for the Brotherhood will be emulating the Iranian model to coopt the military somehow. They’ll have to do it in reverse order from how Iran did it — i.e., instead of starting a la Iran with an Islamist revolt that’s later secured by a de facto military coup (in 2009), they’ll have to follow today’s de facto coup with an Islamist revolt — but it’s not impossible. If the Egyptian military holds on too tightly to power and the public gets restless again, they could strike a deal with the Brotherhood in which the Islamists take formal control in the name of “democratic legitimacy” in return for guaranteeing that the military can keep its business rackets going.

Update: Another fun clip from Fox Insider. More than 90 minutes after the announcement, Tahrir Square is still roaring so loudly that reporters can’t hear themselves.

Update: A hopeful note from an op-ed at Politico. However this ends, and we probably won’t know for years, the successful revolts in Tunisia and Egypt could make peaceful demonstrations the new vogue for political expression in the Middle East for awhile.

Speaking of which, one of Ace’s co-bloggers wondered on Twitter which Arab regime would be next to go. My pick for the last to go: The Saudis. They’ll be more ruthless than Mubarak was and they’ll receive far more western backing in that ruthlessness, partly because of our oil interests there, partly because of the greater risk of a fundie takeover, and partly to avert the ominous symbolism of Mecca being captured by jihadist nutjobs. But even the Saudis are worried now. According to Fox News, Obama’s phone call on Egypt with Abdullah a few days ago was “unusually tense” because we wouldn’t back Mubarak as fully as they’d like.

Update: A depressing piece from Ellis Goldberg at Foreign Policy Affairs makes the same point as Fred Kaplan: The army’s not going to relax its stranglehold on the economy, which means democracy and privatization are dead on arrival.

The practical demands of the protesters seem fairly simple: end the state of emergency, hold new elections, and grant the freedom to form parties without state interference. But these demands would amount to opening up the political space to everyone across Egypt’s social and political structure. That would involve constitutional and statutory changes, such as reforming Egypt as a parliamentary rather than a presidential system, in which a freely elected majority selects the prime minister (who is now appointed by the president). These changes would wipe away the power structure the army created in 1952 and has backed since.

A freely elected parliament and a reconstituted government would weaken the role of the presidency, a position the military is likely to try to keep in its portfolio. Moreover, open elections could hand the new business elites power in parliament where they could work to limit the role of the army in the economy. This would put the army’s vast economic holdings — from the ubiquitous propane cylinders that provide all Egyptian homes with cooking gas to clothing, food, and hotels — in jeopardy. Moreover, the army has always preferred that the country be orderly and hierarchical. It is uncomfortable with the growing participatory festival on the streets and, even if the officers were to tolerate more contestation than their grandfathers did in the 1950s, they would likely try to limit participation in politics to those whose lives have been spent in the military by retaining the system of presidential appointment for government ministers.

Update: Tapper has a useful reality check up in advance of the coming White House spin about how pro-democracy they allegedly are. Which of the last two presidents pushed harder — and provided more funding — for liberalization in Egypt? Hint: Not Hopenchange.

Update: The mullahs who were cheering Egypt’s protesters suddenly get cold feet. As do the Swiss, who were apparently holding his stolen money for him for years.

Update: A mystery solved, maybe: Richard Engel claims that senior Egyptian military leaders expected Mubarak to quit yesterday and were “furious” when he didn’t, going so far as to threaten to resign and join the protests if he didn’t do so today. True, or self-serving spin after the fact aimed at proving that they were on the people’s side all along? The rumor yesterday was that Mubarak’s speech was pre-recorded; if that’s true, then if the military disapproved of it, presumably they could have stopped it from airing. I still like my “trial balloon” theory from way up top in this post better.

Blowback

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That video was not the result of simmering tensions between two groups. It was the evidence of what Islam is. They were told to do it…apostasy is punishiable by death. (As is everything else)

BobMbx on February 11, 2011 at 2:52 PM

I don’t doubt you on that. And I definitely don’t think that any modern message is a real solution. We’re talking about medieval thinking and trying to leap-frog.

Here’s what I do see a bit of hope. 60% youth.

LOL*

I think the very birth situation may well just leapfrog those problems.

I think alot of us imagine that they have to go through the endless generations of change. Ever read what the Christian Church did in torturing people? (omigod)

I’m not sure that is the path right now with humans. You have 60% youth, you are talking about a country that is completely flexible, not stuck in old thinking models, fluent on the internet and exchanging ideas globally.

It honestly may turn out to be the real answer. And politics has nothing to do with it.

Is it just me, or do I think it is better to support American interests and freedoms as opposed to foreign freedoms? Yeah, freedom is good, but if we are putting ourselves in danger so some person in a third world country who can’t read can vote for a thug, why are we supporting this?

andy85719 on February 11, 2011 at 2:52 PM

I’m merely using their own argument against them … the ernestos of the world throwing out “conservative totalitarians” yet undermined American efforts to topple totalitarians and bring freedom to the Middle East.

I agree with you. But the most adamant supporters of this Egypt “revolution” are those most opposed to neocon ideology, which ironically, is what this vindicates.

I think Iran is in trouble, too, as of today. Everyone is focused on how this affects Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.

I’d think about how this affects Iran. That is a highly educated population, totally used to having to skirt around the government.

And they are savvy, too.

AnninCA on February 11, 2011 at 3:03 PM

Keep thinking.

The leaders of Iran, the Islamic Clerics and Ayatollahs, have no qualms about having thousands of people killed on live TV in order to stay in power.

They couldn’t care less what you or I think of them. That’s why there will be no revolt in Iran. A year ago it nearly happened. Next time, the Ayatollahs won’t be caught off guard, nor slow to plug the plug or the trigger.

“Well, they had tanks, guns, planes and trained soldiers and policemen….we had blogs.”

BobMbx on February 11, 2011 at 3:03 PM

I think that I don’t get your post. I think the fact that Mubarak didn’t really unleash the military is to his credit. He was autocratic, often unwise, but not cruel to that degree. He did love Egypt. He simply didn’t always rule wisely, I guess. That’s for Egyptian historians to sort out.

But he did allow this uprising, and I think he needs to be acknowledged for that.

He stepped aside, once Obama and he exchanged shots.

And he was 82 and ushered Egypt into this era.

I very definitely disagree with some of the pundits talking about Muslim takeovers, etc.

I think they are frankly irresponsible. It’s one thing to have your opinions. It’s quite another to over-focus.

But then, I really do agree with Palin. The press is way messed up these days.

If they would stick to reporting facts, then they wouldn’t be so embarassed by the wrong turns, either.

I think what many Americans are really thinking about is just how our “allies” have apparently been so awful. Watching these celebrations must give a lot of people pause about how we’ve exercised power.

Game on. Obama just gave an “OK” speech. It will be most interesting to see how the Obama administration picks up the pieces. Do you let em run, or impose some strong thought leadership? Slippery Sledding to be sure.

Hillary will be on the spot. It will be interesting to see if she can manage the deal effectively or be just another Joe Biden.

With all the positive thoughts this is going to end badly. Before it finishes Israel is going to be forced to use nuclear weapons to defend itself. After that what happens is anyone’s guess, but it won’t be good for anybody.

I just heard a partial clip of O’s self-righteous/self-congratulatory speech re Egypt’s changing of the guard. Where were those high-flown words in support of the Iranians not all that long ago? He is such a hypocrite, and no journalist will ask ObaMao what makes the difference in how he did not support Iran’s citizens and now gives lip-service to the Egyptians.

BTW–Let Democrats stand behind their votes and the current status of the country. I DON’T want to have to defend a vote by a Republican like Snowe who thought adding $750 billion to the debt would somehow stop unemployment at 8% and wouldn’t harm our economy or the value of our dollar. Stupidity like that deserves to be voted out of office on those merits alone. If stupid politicians are the what NorthEasterns feel like supporting with a vote, let them suffer for it, not the whole country and not my Party.

The glaring difference being, of course, the US military. In the Egyptian case, we are simply bystanders. To support or oppose dictatorship in Egypt is not a question of going to war, it is simply a question of values, which makes the wholesale endorsement of dictatorship here all the more curious. In Iraq, we forced the issue and destroyed a country’s infrastructure, along with guaranteeing a hellishly violent civil war. In Egypt, we watch, people protest, dictators are ousted…all with no wholesale slaughter. I understand your attempt at equivocation, and perhaps these events have me re-examining the Iraq war, but I still cannot understand the wholesale endorsement of dictatorship we are seeing here at HA.

I think what many Americans are really thinking about is just how our “allies” have apparently been so awful. Watching these celebrations must give a lot of people pause about how we’ve exercised power.

AnninCA on February 11, 2011 at 3:22 PM

Propping up “our bastards” has been SOP for the US for god knows how long. It’s a policy that always backfires, yet we continue.

Today, everyone and his cousin supports the “freedom agenda.” Of course, yesterday it was just George W. Bush, Tony Blair, and a band of neocons with unusual hypnotic powers who dared to challenge the received wisdom of Arab exceptionalism — the notion that Arabs, as opposed to East Asians, Latin Americans, Europeans, and Africans, were uniquely allergic to democracy. Indeed, the Left spent the better part of the Bush years excoriating the freedom agenda as either fantasy or yet another sordid example of U.S. imperialism.

Had we not installed him, there would have been no islamic r3volution. We should not have installed a dictator in Iran in the first place, nor should we have ever endorsed a dictator in Egypt. We should not have endorsed a dictator in Iraq, either, as we did during their war with Iran. We should not endorse dictators; it never works out.

Had we not installed him, there would have been no islamic r3volution. We should not have installed a dictator in Iran in the first place, nor should we have ever endorsed a dictator in Egypt. We should not have endorsed a dictator in Iraq, either, as we did during their war with Iran. We should not endorse dictators; it never works out.

ernesto on February 11, 2011 at 4:10 PM

So, the Honduran clusterfark was high on your list of pet peeves? Ojesus’ lavish reception and State Dinner for the Chinese delegation?

It is interesting how many muslim apoligists there are in this country.
Probably just the same fools that were & would have been, fooled by communists.
Communists were never the friends of democrats or liberals.
Communists USED these people as the TOOLS that they are.
And sometimes democrats, liberals, progressives,whatever you want to call them, wake up from their foolishness & realize they’ve been had.
Then there are those who remain stuck on stupid, doubling & tripling down on moronic stupidity.
Ted Kennedy is one of those fools who comes to mind.

Had we not installed him, there would have been no islamic r3volution. We should not have installed a dictator in Iran in the first place, nor should we have ever endorsed a dictator in Egypt. We should not have endorsed a dictator in Iraq, either, as we did during their war with Iran. We should not endorse dictators; it never works out.

I can agree in today’s environment. Don’t forget that back then we were in the Cold War and the bad guys would have propped them up if we didn’t. Only a fool would argue that supporting any of those rat bastard tyrants was a good thing, but one would be equally foolish to say the alternative 40 or 50 years ago was better.

Even if, for some fey reason, The Muslim Brotherhood or some other religious fanatical group should be thwarted by a legitimate, democratically elected government there is still the possibility that this democratic government would choose fundamentalism and terrorism since it is the “will” of the people.

Often the grassroots in Middle Eastern countries are more fundamentalist than even their dictatorial leaders. Remember, in the Sudan, where the government sentenced a foreign teacher to five years in prison for simply naming a teddy bear ‘Mohammed’? The populace was outraged-(not at outrage at the harshness of the sentence as sane-minded people would suppose) but because the sentence was TOO LENIENT-some even wanted the woman stoned to death!! (And this is not just an isolated incident)

We keep looking for Western values in people stuck in the Eight Century.These values do not exist.

We keep looking for Western values in people stuck in the Eight Century.These values do not exist.

MaiDee on February 11, 2011 at 6:02 PM

Western values don’t exist because everywhere the people stuck in the Eighth Century find them stuck to the majority of The People, they chop off the effected limbs and/or other body parts as a lesson to the others.

Here at WikiIslam, we document the news of Muslims leaving Islam and host hundreds of written testimonies.

There is a 50/50 chance the outcome will be favorable to the U.S. and the world. I will take the pessimistic view and declare this regime change as unfavorable. For those of you that are not interested in preserving the American culture and our sovereignty, I guess you can view the resignation of Mubarak as favorable.

While I wasn’t particularly fond of Mubarak, he had no choice but to keep the Muslim Brotherhood and it’s followers in check, much like Saddam Hussein corralled the Shi’a Islamist influence before he was toppled. By managing to keep the Muslim Brotherhhood as a non-factor in the peace accord between Egypt and Israel for over 30 years, Israel could count on Egypt to be somewhat neutral regarding regional conflicts with other nearby nations. Now, the cat has been let out of the bag.

While democracy for the majority of Egyptians will be the goal of this takeover, that isn’t necessarily a positive outcome for all Egyptians. Democracy to Muslims doesn’t necessarily mean democracy to non-Muslims. Living under strict Islamic laws with one state religion for all, without freedom of other religions, is the stated goal of Islam around the globe. Today Egypt, tomorrow the world.

I humbly submit that Egypt will soon be ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood and under strict Shariah laws. It will only be a matter of a few months before Obama will travel to Egypt and pledge millions, perhaps billions, of U.S. taxpayer dollars to begin the “healing process” between the Egyptian Muslims and the U.S. I also believe that Egypt will soon declare war with Israel after the money has been transferred.

The only concern for the U.S. at this moment is to stop the spread of Islam in America and to begin harnessing all available domestic energy sources. We must “cut the umbilical cord” to the energy sources coming from the Middle East and get out of the business of interfering with the affairs of other nations, particularly in the Middle East. We must insist that Muslims in the U.S. will always be subject to the laws of our American justice system and Constitution. We must never allow Muslims to live and abide by the system and laws of Shariah in America, not now or ever..

I challenge HotAir and it’s readers to “rally ’round the flagpole” and bring America back to the patriots and lovers of our cherished traditions and time-honored values. If thousands upon thousands of screaming, fanatical Egyptians, calling for the death of Israel and the West, can drive Mubarak from office, surely the patriots in the United States of America can drive Obama and the progressive leftists out of office in 2012. Long live American patriots, tea-party members and all others who love or country!

I personally think once most muslims have seen what the outside world is really like & what true freedom can bring, along with Christianity etc., many hunger for the opportunity to leave.
But with a billion or more of these wackos breathing down your throat who will support your death for apostasy, WTH would YOU do?
I do feel for these poor idiots.
Some are already way too far gone to help.
But the rest-that’s what Christian missionaries are for.
God bless those people-of all Christian faiths- who risk their lives to bring these people comfort & hope.

jjraines on February 11, 2011 at 2:35 PM
The glaring difference being, of course, the US military. In the Egyptian case, we are simply bystanders. To support or oppose dictatorship in Egypt is not a question of going to war, it is simply a question of values, which makes the wholesale endorsement of dictatorship here all the more curious. In Iraq, we forced the issue and destroyed a country’s infrastructure, along with guaranteeing a hellishly violent civil war. In Egypt, we watch, people protest, dictators are ousted…all with no wholesale slaughter. I understand your attempt at equivocation, and perhaps these events have me re-examining the Iraq war, but I still cannot understand the wholesale endorsement of dictatorship we are seeing here at HA.
ernesto on February 11, 2011 at 3:44 PM

Obama caused it to happen – the world saw this greatness as it happened before our eyes. Obama’s open cowering before a real decision (he couldn’t vote present any longer and Soro’s was out taking down some other country) scared the daylights out of Mubarek, who realized that if this bumbling incompetent was his best support system, he better hightail it out of there.

And now we get to crown our own man because his inmcompete4nce, once again helped to lower the image of America in the eyes of the world -and that’s why he is loved by the left!