Weekly Bankroll Builder: My Saratoga Friday Pick 5 Ticket

by Brian Nadeau

July 27, 2018

With the rain behind us, let’s take a look at Friday’s Pk5 at Saratoga. Whereas in the past I’ve put together one caveman ticket on a small-scale budget, I’m now going to try and present a bit more of an in-depth play that will utilize backup horses and tickets, while painting a broader picture of a suggested play.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. ***

Race 1: 2yo NYB MSW at 5 ½ furlongs

You’ll have to take about 2-5 in the win pool on #6 BANKIT (4-5), who was a good and fast 2nd on debut against open maidens at Belmont and will relish this class drop. The good news is that singling to open a sequence is not a move the public likes to do, so you can use him to your advantage, and that minuscule tote price will play bigger in the sequence.

Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 6

Tab the tote here, since anyone who is live and taking money would be worth a look, but no one on paper is that intriguing, plus the pick looks that good.

Pk5 B horses (listed in order of preference): NONE

Race 2: 3yof 50k claimer at 1-mile on the inner turf

The class-dropping #6 BEACH WALTZ (2-1) probably should be favored over #1 NIGHT OWL (8-5), as she’s the class and has a better overall body of work, but the latter goes for Brown, so the line does make sense. I like the former, as she’s a bit more tactical too, though the latter is a must-use and I would think they’ll get you through, regardless of who comes out on top.

Pk5 A horses: 6,1

If #2 RADIANT BEAUTY (4-1) is sent and clears just maybe she gets brave, like she did at Aqueduct in April, when just missing over yielding ground, and it’s worth noting she’ll get to run over a turf course with some give to it today as well.

Pk5 B horses: 2

Race 3: 3up 25k N2L at 6 ½ furlongs

Strong works and running as a first-time gelding says #1a WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD (3-1) can spring the mild surprise in his first start since January, and the class drop to 25k doesn’t worry much since this is probably where he’s supposed to be anyway. The same can’t be said for #6 CHANGE OF VENUE (5-2), who was 4-1 when 3rd in a 50k starter two-back and 9-2 at the level last time when he was a no-show 9th, so obviously something went amiss, which is why he’s tough to trust in today for 25k.

Pk5 A horses: 1a,6

You have to think #8 SOUTHEAST (9-2) will need to run better than he did against weaker at CD, but Bruce Brown is a surprising 19% off the claim (albeit from just a 16-horse sample), so maybe he can improve, and if the top pair are in fact damaged goods, he could surprise. There’s little pace in here, which means #3 RIDE ON FAITH (6-1) could get loose at a nice number, and sometimes when those lifetime maidens finally win, they win right back.

Pk5 B horses: 8,3

Race 4: 3up 3uo 50k N3L at 5 ½ furlongs on the Mellon turf

A race filled with speed over a dampened and demanding turf course says #4 RAPPEL (9-2) can make the last run the winning run, much like he did when beating N2L foes at Belmont last time. The outside draw will help #6 BELGIAN (5-2), as he’ll get first run after just missing against lesser at Belmont, but while Maker is solid off the claim, improving a turf sprinter from Sharp won’t be easy. The wildcard is #1 CANADIAN FLIER (7-2), who is the best horse, but hasn’t been out in 370 days and drew poorly, so next time may be the time, though he’s also tough to toss. The same can be said for SHANGROYAL (2-1), who is a huge underlay on his return to the turf for Ward, but would be no surprise, though winning this up front won’t be easy.

Pk5 A horses: 4,6,1,2

Those four should cover the bases, as anyone else would be a big surprise, so we’ll stand alone with just the A’s here.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Race 5: 3up NYB N1X at 6 furlongs

A reall toughie to end it, which is why I’ll spread and look for a price, and #2 LA CAT WARRIOR (10-1) definitely fits the latter, and I would expect he improves in a big way off that Belmont return off a 17-month layoff, especially since he can close in a race filled with speed. A stalking style will aid #6 CALL ME A STAR (6-1), who also offers value and comes out of two key races. A lack of speed may also benefit #4 D’YER MAKER (12-1), and going second-off the long layoff and returning to dirt are also pluses.

Pk5 A horses: 2,6,4

The speed horses come in next, as they can’t be A’s with so much pace signed on, so #1 CHARLIE MCCOY (3-1), #9 WRONG BEN (4-1) AND #5 STONEY BENNETT (7-2) are all included on the backups due to the race flow. I’m also using the off-the-wall horse, #11 CANDY ZIP (12-1), who is slow on paper and comes in off an October layoff while facing winners for the first time but will close and lures Irad.

Pk5 B horses: 1,9,5,11

My Tickets

The main A ticket is 1x2x2x4x3 for $24, and that’s our starting point. But by adding in our B horses in with the A’s in the other legs, we can get more coverage and allow for some margin for error too. As you’ll see below, the backups tickets are a more cost conducive way of getting added coverage, without breaking the bank; if we played both the A’s and the B’s together, the ticket (1x3x4x4x7) would cost an absurd $168, which essentially makes the stronger opinions the same as the weaker ones, whereas this is a much more reasonable $92. I’m also an advocate of playing you’re A ticket for $1 (or more), so you capitalize if you handicap it out of the park.

Main Ticket: 6 with 6,1 with 1a,6 with 4,6,1,2 with 2,6,4 = $24 R2 B Backup: 6 with 2 with 1a,6 with 4,6,1,2 with 2,6,4 = $12 R3 B Backup: 6 with 6,1 with 8,3 with 4,6,1,2 with 2,6,4 = $24 R5 B Backup: 6 with 6,1 with 1a,6 with 4,6,1,2 with 1,9,5,11 = $32

Share This Article

You May Also Like

8.29.2018

As hard as it is to believe, Closing Weekend is here, so what better way to pad the bankroll than hit the Friday Pk5? Whereas in the past I’ve put together one caveman ticket on a small-scale budget, I’m now going to try and present a bit more of an in-depth play that will utilize backup horses and tickets, while painting a broader picture of a suggested play. *** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. *** Race 1: 3upfm NYB MSW at 1 1/16 miles inner turf There’s not much in the opener, though I’ll play for a mild upset with #5 DREAMERS AND ME, as Levine has had a good meet and rarely wins with firsters, but this miss was a fine 2nd turf sprinting at Belmont and should love the added ground. The obvious horse to beat is #1 CHICLET’S DREAM for Brown, though she’s burned a lot of money and will be a very short price once again. Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 5,1 I’m not in love with either #2 BARREL OF DESTINY or #6 COPPERLINE, as the former seems destined to bounce off the good 4th over a bog in the local stakes, while the latter goes for an ice cold Casse barn off a very slow, but fast-closing 4th on debut, though I can use them since it won’t cost much on the B-level. Pk5 B horses (listed in order of preference): 9,1E,8 Race 2: 3up N2L 16k at 1 1/8 miles Like the 1st, the 2nd goes through Brown and doesn’t have much, and this time I will single his #4 APARTFROMTHECROWD, who was DOB in his comeback at Mth on the turf yet ran well to be 5th, drops and shows the best dirt form here. Pk5 A horses: 4 If you’re not sold, which is understandable, then #5 PLAYRIGHT and #6 SINGLE GEM are the alternatives, as both have solid form and tactical speed, which is never a bad thing routing on the Saratoga main track. Pk5 B horses: 5,6 Race 3: 3up NYC 25k MCL at 6 furlongs Sooo, once again there’s not much here (are you getting the picture?), which is why I’ll single #7 GLOBAL IMPACT, who was an encouraging 3rd on debut, should only improve, has a ton of upside, and, unlike the rest of these, has yet to prove he’s going to be a lifetime maiden. Pk5 A horses: 7 It’s probably not a bad thing that #4 MRY MR. WONDERFUL tries the main, as his last two turf runs weren’t much, and this will be the first time he runs on dirt for a tag, so he’s the backup, along with #3 ONE MORE TOM, who continues to drop to find his level and could wake up with blinkers today. Pk5 B horses: 4,3 Race 4: 4upfm 80k/N3X at 1-mile on the inner turf There’s little doubt #6 RYMSKA is going to be tough for Brown, as she’s won three straight stakes, but she also hasn’t been out since November and is meeting older for the first time, not to mention she has no speed and is prepping for some big stakes, so it’s worth trying to beat her, even though she is a must-use A. However, speed has been potent on the turf and #4 MALIBU STACY looks like a Lone F stretching out, has some solid numbers, and catches the chalk at the right time, so just maybe she gets brave and forgets to stop, which is why she’s the top pick. Pk5 A horses: 4,6 Brown also runs #5 PENJADE, who looks like a lesser version of the favorite, as she too hasn’t been out since last year (December) and has no speed, so while she rates as a backup, she’s not on the same line as the top-2. Pk5 B horses: 5 Race 5: 2yof MSW at 5/12 furlongs on the Melon turf The final leg seems like the one race where you can think outside the box a bit, as all 10 entered have their merits and this looks wide open. I’m going with #9 ALTAR OF SPEED, as Joe Sharp has had a big meet and is 30% turf sprinting, along with #4 PARADISE RETAINED, since Servis is 34% turf sprinting and this one got some experience on debut on the main track, #7 SENDA, who didn’t fire on the dirt in her debut but is by Scat Daddy and the Mott second-time maidens have run well all meet, #5 QUIET COMPANY, who was nailed late in her debut on the main and worked a huge bullet on the training track a week ago, and #6 STELLAR AGENT, an Abreu More Than Ready firster with a slew of solid works showing. Pk5 A horses: 9-4-7-5-6 Contention runs deep, so #10 MY GIRL ROCKET, #2 MISS LEAH ANGEL, #8 LADY GRACE, #1 MALIBU MISCHIEF and #3 PRINCESS TRINA all have to be considered for myriad reasons, and since we’re think early on, we can use them all and simply blanket this field. Pk5 B horses: 10-2-8-1-3 This is the ole “less is more” ticket, as there’s not a lot here and I’ll try to hit it a few times, with backups just in case the main contenders get upset. I’ve preached in the past “don’t look for something that isn’t there,” and this is the type of sequence I’m talking about, as the favorites seem destined to rule the day. As you’ll see below, the backups tickets allow for some added coverage without breaking the bank, while allowing you to play you’re A-ticket for a good amount. Heck, you can even play the backups for more than $0.50, since they are very concise and don’t cost much to begin with.
My Tickets Main Ticket: 5,1 with 4 with 7 with 4, 6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $10 R1 B Backup: 2,6 with 4 with 7 with 4,6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $10 R2 B Backup: 5,1 with 5,6 with 7 with 4,6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $20 R3 B Backup: 5,1 with 4 with 4,3 with 4,6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $20 R4 B Backup: 5,1 with 4 with 7 with 5 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $5 R5 B Backup: 5,1 with 4 with 7 with 4,6 with 10-2-8-1-3 = $10

8.16.2018

Friday’s sequence looks like a real bear, which means a potentially big payoff is in the cards, so let’s take a look and get aggressive, especially since the weather might actually cooperate for once. Whereas in the past I’ve put together one caveman ticket on a small-scale budget, I’m now going to try and present a bit more of an in-depth play that will utilize backup horses and tickets, while painting a broader picture of a suggested play. *** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. *** Race 1: 3up 50k starter-allowance at 5 ½ furlongs on the Mellon turf The opener seems impossible, especially because several in here want to be involved early, and while they are only going 5 ½ furlongs, a meltdown could ensue. The Toscano barn has been very live at the meet and #5 LA MAQUINA GRIS (6-1) should be stalking after running two turns earlier in the meet, and the closing sprint 2nd two-back was sharp, so that gives him a edge here and gets him a very tepid top billing. From there it’s a total guess, as I don’t really know who is going, who is capable of settling and who is going to like the turf, since a few contenders are trying it for the first time. Hopefully the blinkers won’t have #4 WET YOUR WHISTLE (5-2) too keen early, as he stalked and ran a good 4th at the level last time in his turf debut, and with just two starts he has a ton of upside too, which is more than most of these can say, though that ML makes him a big underlay. If he can work out a trip from the rail then #1 SHEKKY SHEBAZ (4-1) makes sense in his turf debut, and Adam Rice isn’t 38% on the year by running horses where they can’t win, so you have to think those PID Tapeta runs have him thinking he fits here. Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 5,4,2 Contention runs deep, so we’ll also use #6 HUBBADAHUBBADABOOM (7-2), who drew a nice outside attack post for Kenneally, who is 32% in turf sprints, though this runner has yet to try turf in seven starts, which leaves me a bit leery. A lack of AM inactivity has me worried about #8 ALL CLEAR (3-1), since he shows just two works since a sharp 2nd in his turf debut 5/26 at Belmont, though he was close to a repeat winner that day and will be pressing throughout. If I was going to the C-level I would include #9 Hello Holiday (8-1), since he has some good back form and Lauer is 4-for-12 off the claim, which helps to alleviate the concerns of the complete no-show last time when in for 40k. Pk5 B horses (listed in order of preference): 6,8 Race 2: 3upfm NYB 100k Saratoga Dew at 1 1/8 miles Is it possible that in a six-horse field going 1 1/8 miles we have a speed duel, and potentially even an intense one? It kind of looks that way, as #1 Frostie Anne (7-5), #3 Verdant Pastures (4-1) and #4 Frosty Margarita (7-2) all want to get involved early, especially the former two. It’s also worth noting that four of the six entered come back on less than 10 days rest, so anything could happen. The gal who doesn’t come off short rest, and got the perfect tightener out of the way last time off a seven-month layoff is #5 LAND MINE (3-1), who was good 2nd over a track and distance she has won at in the past, and her stalking gear should be flattered by all the pace to her inside. I’m getting aggressive and singling her, which is going to allow for a lot more coverage in the other legs. Pk5 A horses: 5 Even though #4 FROSTY MARGARITA is back on 4 days rest after wiring a minor stakes at Finger Lakes Monday, she hits hard since she doesn’t need the lead and this post is perfect, with the two speeds to her inside. It’s impossible to toss her stablemate #1 FROSTIE ANNE, though she looks like she’ll take the worst of it as the inside speed and does come back on 5 days rest after winning an off-the-turfer Sunday. If Verdant Pastures feels like winning she can do so without me, since her recent form has been awful, she’s run just once since December, and though she’s worked huge for this and has 14 ¾-length win over the track and distance, note it was when she walked on the lead in 51 3/5, a half-mile fraction they may beat by 20 lengths today. You could also squeeze #6 Pink Twist (6-1) in, but she’s slow on paper, didn’t look great beating tons lesser last Thursday and will be wide and on the chase the entire way. Pk5 B horses: 4,1 Race 3: 3up NYB 25k MCL at 6 furlongs In what looks like a match race between #5 GIANT BOO BOO (4-5) and #7 WHERESTHEBARBER (5-2), I’m siding with the latter due to post position and price, as he’s the one who will be pressing the favorite the entire way from the outside, and I’m apt to believe the big 2nd last time, as it was his first start with blinkers on a fast track. The former is obviously the horse to beat, but it is worth noting he blew a clear late lead last time and could bounce off such a big figure, though it was his first start off the Jeremiah claim. It’s also worth nothing that anyone on a budget will be singling the 5, as he is the shortest priced favorite in the sequence (even though the tote odds and actual winning chances are a lot closer), which means a win by ‘Barber will play a lot longer than his potential $6.20 win price. Pk5 A horses: 7,5 I’m not using anyone else in here, as not only are they a decided cut below the top-2, but there’s also really no reason to think today will be the day they jump up with a lifetime best. If you are more creative then me, then obviously you’ll be looking at #1 The I Man (8-1) and #3 Shuffling Madness (6-1), but they are fringe C’s at best. Pk5 B horses: NONE Race 4: 3upfm 50k starter-allowance at 1 1/6 miles on the inner turf The last two legs of today’s sequence seem impossible to narrow down, which bodes well for the payoff, though they will obviously be tough to navigate through. In a race that is clearly there for the taking, siding with a longshot who, if nothing else, will be in front as far as she can go isn’t a terrible idea, so I’m putting #1 LA FEE VERTE (15-1) on top off a gate-to-wire win in a sloppy off-the-turfer earlier in the meet (and note she was entered on the grass). Also, it’s not a big sample, but Lukas has two wins first-turf from 15 starters, so it’s not an impossible move for this HOF barn. Obviously I’m spreading deep if I’m taking a 15-1 on top and hoping for chaos, so #3 HOPONTHEBUSGUS (4-1) is a must-use on the stretch back out from this good draw; as is #4 FAST TRACK KATHERN (9-5), who is a huge underlay on the rise at this ML but sure comes in the right way off a fast win against lesser and could even improve off the Nevin claim. I’m also using (maybe reaching?) with #6 CODRINGTON (6-1) and #9 HOPE’S ROAR (7-2), since they didn’t fire over yielding ground last time when 7th and 6th, respectively, but have solid prior form on firm ground that puts them in the mix here. The former is especially appealing since he will (hopefully) make his first start off the claim for Maker on firm turf. Pk5 A horses: 1,3,4,6,9 There will be no B’s here, since I either have the winner in my 5-pack or I don’t. If the turf comes up yielding then #8 Questeq (8-1) comes into play, as she was 2nd, ahead of Hope’s Roar and Codrington two-back, but her form on firmer turf won’t get her a sniff with these. The wildcard is #7 Diamond Jen Brady (6-1), who could press ‘Verte on the stretchout from dirt sprints, but Hennig is 0-for-27 first-turf, so in that stat we trust. Pk5 B horses: NONE Race 5: 2yof NYB MSW at 6 furlongs The real fun begins in the last leg, as you could make a legitimate case for most, if not all, of the 10 entered. That’s not happening in this space here, at least on the A-line, so we will need to simply hope to survive what looks like a real crapshoot. Where to start? There is a lot of pedigree players here, with #1 COZZY’S POSSE (8-1), who is a half to stakes-placed Cozzy Spring; #4 KADENS COURAGE (5-1), a full to multiple stakes winner Loki’s Vengeance; and #8 Awesome Adversary (20-1), a half to stakes winner Carameaway. I’ll use the two former runners, as well as #6 THE GRAND CANAL (7-2), who was a distant 2nd on debut for Rice, who is 29% with second-out maidens. The last of the A’s is #10 BUSTIN HOFFMAN (8-1), who invades from Laurel for Figgins, who is 18% with firsters and one of the sharper Midatlantic barns out there. Pk5 A horses: 4,1,6,10 Awesome Adversary gets the first B slot and is followed by #3 KOSCIUSZKO (10-1), who has a slew of bullets for a crafty Quick barn, and #9 STEAM ENGINE (9-2), a Cox firster with modest works, though that 7/7 bullet at Ellis may be the one to concentrate on. The last two are #5 FROSTED ICE (6-1), who took a hint of money on debut then ran evenly after a slow start, and #2 ICEY CASH (6-1), who lures Castellano for a low-percentage Schettino barn with a bullet 5F work showing, from the gate too, so that’s enough to include him as well. Pk5 B horses: 8,3,9,5,2 We’ll take a big swing here on a sequence I like a lot; the main A ticket is 3x1x2x5x4 for $60, and that’s our starting point. But by adding in our B horses in with the A’s in the other legs, we can get more coverage and allow for some margin for error too. As you’ll see below, the backups tickets allow for some added coverage without breaking the bank; if we played both the A’s and the B’s together, the ticket (5x3x2x5x9) would cost a robust $675, which essentially makes the stronger opinions the same as the weaker ones, whereas this is a much more reasonable $295. I’m also an advocate of playing you’re A ticket for $1 (or more), so you capitalize if you handicap it out of the park.
My Tickets
Main Ticket: 5,4,2 with 5 with 7,5 with 1,3,4,6,9 with 4,1,6,10 = $60 R1 B Backup: 6,8 with 5 with 7,5 with 1,3,4,6,9 with 4,1,6,10 = $40 R2 B Backup: 5,4,2 with 4,1 with 7,5 with 1,3,4,6,9 with 4,1,6,10 = $120 R5 B Backup: 5,4,2 with 5 with 7,5 with 1,3,4,6,9 with 8,3,9,5,2 = $75