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The writer is a senior fellow with UC Berkeley and heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a progressive policy unit.

THE last nine months have been tough on the PML-N. Till recently, it seemed unbeatable in 2018. The 3E (economic, energy and extremism) issues it inherited were steadily being tackled. The economic narrative about CPEC being a game-changer was seductive even if too rosy.

But today, it is unclear if it will even complete its current term and survive beyond. Seen from a moral lens alone, the PML-N rightly looks like the epitome of evil-corruption, dynastic politics, internal autocracy — and its troubles seem natural and well-deserved. But moral lenses alone paint a partial picture.

One must supplement them with political economy lenses. Viewing so, one is struck by a puzzle. The PML-N may be the epitome of evil but compared with other parties in Saarc, it is not exceptionally so. Why then is it alone in meeting this fate? This fact provokes the Sherlock Holmes in me to check if the imminent death by natural cause medical diagnosis uses PML-N’s natural ills to hide a cunning murder attempt via external blows.

The party alone shows interest in pursuing civilian democracy.

Panama was the first body blow it took. Sharifs have likely amassed huge wealth via sleaze and the NAB cases may convict them fairly but only after many months. But Panama would not have had a devastating impact on the PML-N sans the instant and unexpected decapitation that Nawaz’s de-seating caused. But unlike the seeming solidity of the 10 volumes of JIT proof against the Sharifs for NAB cases, the de-seating verdict came across as iffy and irresponsible. The view that the six years of unpaid salary was a declarable receivable asset negates accounting rules. Thus, the solid proof in Panama is yet to cause legal harm. But the huge legal blow Panama has already dealt it was via a very controversial verdict. These nuances were lost in the moral fury provoked around Panama.

The second blow came from the fast unravelling of the PML-N’s overly rosy economic narrative. The 2014 economic recovery was shaky given the heavy reliance on loans and indirect taxes and the lack of exports recovery. Astute economists had predicted even in 2014 the next foreign reserves crisis for 2017. Still, the narrative common in media about the utter economic doom caused by the PML-N too is overly bleak, especially the comparison with the USSR’s collapse. So the damage to the PML-N’s image on this issue exceeds reality.

The final blow was dealt by Rizvi’s sit-in. Most analysts blame the PML-N for touching the Khatm-i-Nabuwat declaration in the electoral law. The changes were soon reversed. However, many believe that the party should have foreseen the reaction which was far greater than expected, leading some to ask if it was instigated.

Then there was the abject surrender, again mostly pinned on the PML-N. While it must shoulder much blame for poor planning and execution, by Nov 25th, it did finally develop a sensible strategy, ie, to launch an operation sans heavy force. The light tools failed the first time. This did not mean giving up but trying again. But then came the odd tweet and pressure to engage in one-sided talks from Pindi, which actually was the main cause for the abject surrender to extremists.

Reviewing this rapid series of eternal blows, Sherlock Holmes tells me that while the PML-N suffers from huge internal ills, its current anaemic status is not due to them but the external blows. Still, being the stickler that he is for proof, he is unable to conclude if their occurrence in a short period was a coincidence or designed. If there is more crippling agitation soon, my suspicions about them being designed may increase much.

The PML-N is a conservative party and as a liberal voter, I have no interest in it. But as a political analyst aware of how tough it may be for Pakistan to replace even such a weak party, I have an interest in seeing it survive, also since it alone shows interest in pursuing civilian supremacy.

The standard advice to the PML-N from moral lenses would be to strengthen internal democracy, parliament and rule of law. But this advice at least in the short term is laughably naïve seen from political economy lenses. Pakistani society cannot produce such parties for decades, like many other developing states. The best short-term advice one can give is to remove internal fractures around succession.

This will require Nawaz Sharif to take a back seat in favour of his brother Shahbaz Sharif, at least as a tactical retreat until polls. Otherwise, the risks to party survival will remain very high.

The writer is a senior fellow with UC Berkeley and heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a progressive policy unit.

On DawnNews

Comments (14) Closed

The party alone shows interest in pursuing civilian democracy, but not a separation of powers between the executive, judicial and legislative branches of government.

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sajed syed

Dec 19, 2017 09:40am

Overall a good analytical article.

Though it talks about civilian supremacy and external hand in the problems that PML-N is facing, it is not bold enough to call a Spade a Spade.

There has to be a momentum built in Pakistan to restore supremacy of four pillars of government/state:

Legislative

Executive

Judiciary

Free, independent, vocal responsible press (the fourth estate)

Overall I give Niaz A+

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TAJAMAL HUSSAIN

Dec 19, 2017 09:50am

Mr Niaz,

The truth is PML-N is a group of corrupt people ,which brought pakistan to this miserable condition.

they must be punish in time .i don't understand , why the people still not see the truth.

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Timmy

Dec 19, 2017 11:03am

Can the writer give example of any " SAARC" Prime Minister employed ( Paid or not paid ) in any middle eastern company ?

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nadeem

Dec 19, 2017 11:51am

What you call "design" is MAKAFAAT E AMAL..

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Nagi

Dec 19, 2017 12:06pm

Excellent analysis. Indeed there are external forces at work

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abid ali

Dec 19, 2017 12:49pm

well done and to the point article. In kohistan district kohistanis live, a separate ethnicity from pakhtuns.

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Shahid

Dec 19, 2017 04:54pm

Sir. All your lenses are extremely cloudy if not completely opaque. Also across the pond and way beyond to this land, turbulence of all kind hinders transmission, moral or otherwise, gets corrupted even more, on top of all kinds of inherent corruption you have set out to tackle. As for your advice, are you not a bit of too late about this great solution to the family problem? Besides what is new or different about and in it from other so many other philosophers and thinkers?

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Nadeem

Dec 19, 2017 06:28pm

The key blow to PMLN is the non-functionality of the current Abbasi government whether due to incompetence or by Nawaz insistence that he must be consulted. There may be outside designs - but internal lack of democracy within the party and a genuine interest in seeing other leaders outside the Nawaz Sharif family succeed has dealt the final blow.

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MONIER

Dec 19, 2017 08:50pm

Both PPP and PML-N was and is a failure. We need fresh start

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Frankenstein

Dec 19, 2017 10:56pm

you know why people did no side up with PMLN because all they do is talk. Had they done something to cater dynastic politics or corruption people would have sympathy with them

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ShahNoor Syed

Dec 20, 2017 09:31am

Kudos to Dawn for posting excellent article by Dr.Niaz Murtaza.

In the past four years Pakistan was on the path of peace, progress and prosperity. However, the ouster of democratically elected Prime Minister on filmsy grounds has once again put back the country on destabilizing slope.

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PR MAN

Dec 21, 2017 06:46am

The individuals like this esteemed writer who do care for the development of the democratic institutions in the country must raise the bar for their pet politicians/candidates as well. While supporting their favorite leaders, must hold the leaders’ feet to the fire when they go wrong. Simply cheer leading the inept leaders is a regressive behavior.

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Ahsan Gul

Dec 22, 2017 02:50am

Good analysis of PML-N. it is not a party per say - it is a corporate that withhold billions of rupees and many hundred of people on its payroll. NS knows as he came from bottom up how to buy people of the streets. His brother SS is more fit and practical person than him.
As a business man NS can never be a person who will care for people- he will care for himself first. But extreme poverty and lack of upward mobility opportunities keep masses with him. And that is Pakistan today, on the democracy name these politicians like NS and AZ buy people and stay in power. Sincerely