Texas banking on $5 billion more in state revenue

At least $5 billion in unanticipated revenue will flow into Texas' coffers during the current two-year budget cycle, according to new figures from the comptroller's office.

Comptroller Susan Combs on Wednesday released updated details of how much money the state is expected to collect in taxes and fees in fiscal 2013, which begins Sept. 1. The report, prepared as Texas seeks $9.8 billion in short-term loans, indicates the state will bring in about $2 billion more than she previously estimated.

For the current fiscal year, sales tax collections are running about $1.5 billion ahead of projections, and Combs had previously reported the state was sitting on a $1.6 billion cash balance.

Even $5 billion extra is a conservative figure, said Eva DeLuna Castro, a fiscal analyst with the Center for Public Policy Priorities. Historical figures suggest state revenue could come in much higher if it tracks the rise in personal income in the state, she said.

An additional $5 billion would help lawmakers cover a tab for Medicaid costs that they must pay next year. The expectation had been that they would tap the rainy day fund for that expense.

The short-term loan helps the state deal with a mismatch between when revenue comes in and expenses are due. The biggest driver is payments due to school districts in the fall.