tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-215895632014-10-06T23:41:03.530-04:00Just The SportsA Thinking Fan's Sports BlogDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.comBlogger541125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-63332058252962289082012-03-07T11:07:00.003-05:002012-03-07T11:43:33.362-05:00Kobe Bryant Does Not Deserve To Be In the MVP RaceLos Angeles Lakers head coach Mike Brown meant well when he said that <a href="http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/7654391/los-angeles-lakers-mike-brown-supports-kobe-bryant-nba-mvp">Kobe Bryant deserved to be in the MVP race</a>. No doubt, his comments were probably just a way for him to strengthen the relationship between a first-year head coach and his superstar player, but that does not change the fact his comments were completely erroneous. In no way, shape, or form does Bryant deserve to even have his name mentioned in the MVP discussion unless it is to say that Bryant in no way deserves the MVP.<br /><br />Yes, Kobe Bryant is currently leading the league in scoring with 28.7 points per game, but he is doing so in such an inefficient manner that it actually precludes him from being considered even the most valuable player on his own team.<br /><br />Bryant is not leading the NBA in scoring because he is shooting the ball well; he is leading the NBA in scoring because he is taking a lot of shots. In fact, according to <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012_leaders.html">Basketball-Reference.com</a>, Bryant has taken the most field goal attempts this season and it is not even close. Bryant has attempted 903 shots this year, which is 155 more than the second-place player, Kevin Durant, has attempted.<br /><br />To put that extreme difference into context, between first and second in field goal attempts is almost as great as the difference between second and tenth in the same category (157 FGA).<br /><br />One would hope that the person who is taking the most shots in the NBA would also lead it in scoring, although it is not like Bryant is even leading the league by scoring by that much despite his enormous advantage in the number of shots he hoists up every night. He only has a .6 points per game edge over Durant's 28.1 points per game, underscoring just how inefficient a scorer Bryant has been.<br /><br />Bryant is attempting all these shots despite the fact he currently has the <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html">lowest effective field goal percentage (46.7 eFG%) and true shooting percentage (52.7 TS%) of his career so, in essence</a>, he is hurting the team with all his field goal attempts more than he is helping them.<br /><br />His shooting woes are so problematic to his performances that Bryant's offensive rating this season of 104 points produced per 100 possessions is his lowest since his rookie season and his win shares per 48 minutes (.157) are the fifth-lowest of his 15-year career and his worst mark in that category since the 2004-05 season.<br /><br />To suggest Bryant is worthy of being discussed in the MVP race is ludicrous when one considers just how poorly a season he is having compared to other seasons he has had in a career that is frankly absent of many MVP-caliber seasons.<br /><br />While Kobe Bryant is not even measuring up well to his usual production, when you compare him to the players who truly deserve to be discussed as MVP candidates, he looks even worse.<br /><br />Using Basketball-Reference's win shares per 48 minutes statistic, which is vastly superior to PER since it does not reward production totals over efficiency, finds that Bryant is not even in the top 20, and he only shows up as 17th in win shares (4.7) because of all the minutes he has played this year.<br /><br />There is no objective evidence one could use to make the case that Bryant is a possible MVP as everything shows that while he is still better than the vast majority of NBA players, he is not in the upper echelon of players this season.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-25657962757584484142011-05-14T10:24:00.004-04:002011-05-14T14:16:01.626-04:00Detroit Tigers: Austin Jackson Will Never Be That Good AgainWith each passing month of Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson's career, it becomes ever more apparent that the way he tore the cover off the ball in the first month of his career was not representative of the kind of player he actually is. In fact, he has not come close to the heights he reached in the March/April days of the 2010 season.<br /><br />Over the first 23 games of his career, Jackson probably did not know what the big deal about being in the Major League was all about; professional baseball, even at the highest level, was incredibly easy. <br /><br />During that time span, Jackson hit .364/.422/.495 with a .410 wOBA, which is the hitting line for an All-Star and a borderline MVP candidate. Jackson's elite production was aided by an absolutely unsustainable .530 batting average on balls in play and a 37.5 line drive percentage.<br /><br />For the season, Jackson hit .755/.748/1.000 with a .757 wOBA on line drives, further providing proof that line drives are the hits that help a batter the most, and he hit an inordinate amount of line drives in March and April of 2010. Since April 2010, ended, however, Jackson has yet to have a month where his line drive percentage was higher than 28.0 percent so he has not been able to benefit from as many line drives.<br /><br />Jackson's opening month of his career was so extremely not indicative of his actual talent that his next-best month, which took place in July, represents a 13.7 percent drop in his batting average (.314), a 15.2 percent decrease in on-base percentage (.358), a 6.9 percent drop in slugging percentage (.461), a 12.4 percent decrease in wOBA (.359), an 18.5 percent decrease in batting average on balls in play (.432), and a 31.5 percent decrease in line drive percentage (25.7 percent).<br /><br />His other months are an even more precipitous drop-off in his hitting ability as he spent just as much time being a below-average hitter as an above-average one. Last season, the average wOBA for a player was .320; for three months, he was an above-average player, and for three months, he was below-average.<br /><br />Luckily for Jackson, his above-average months outshone his below-average ones so he still finished the season with a .333 wOBA.<br /><br />Jackson's struggles as a hitter continued over the first month of this baseball season as he hit only .181/.252/.257 with a .232 wOBA. During those 27 contests, Jackson also posted the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career (.265) so it is no wonder it was another mediocre hitting month for Jackson.<br /><br />With the way in which Jackson's career path is trending, his biggest struggle will not be trying to duplicate the first 23 games of his career. Instead, the biggest battle he will face is not being a below-average hitter more often than he is an above-average one.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-31258040613839476232011-05-09T09:53:00.005-04:002011-05-09T16:10:25.910-04:00New York Yankee First Baseman Mark Teixeira Will Not Have To Play Catch-Up This SeasonFor the first time in his three seasons with the New York Yankees, first baseman Mark Teixeira will not have to spend every month of the baseball season after April playing catch-up so he can match his career numbers. Instead, all he has to do for the rest of this regular season is to match the production he had over his great first month of the season.<br /><br />Over the first month of the season, including a lone game in March, Teixeira posted a batting line of .256/.392/.549 with a .410 wOBA. His .256 batting average and his .273 batting average on balls in play are not as good as his career marks of a .285 batting average and .302 batting average on balls in play, but Teixeira is not letting that keep him from having his best ever opening full month of the season; in 2004 over the course of eight games of a truncated April, Teixeira hit .276/.432/.552 with a .422 wOBA, but there is no certainty that he would have done that for the whole month. <br /><br />The reason why Teixeira's start to the season has been so excellent has everything to do with his on-base and slugging percentages, percentages that are more indicative of a baseball player's true hitting level than batting average anyway. Riding the strength of a 15.7 walk percentage along with being hit by pitches on three separate occasions, Teixeira has managed to get on base at an MVP-level clip.<br /><br />In fact, should Teixeira manage to maintain that on-base percentage for the rest of the season, it would give him his third-highest on-base percentage for a season since his career began in 2003.<br /><br />Teixeira's March and April were also witness to a power explosion, the likes of which he has never experienced over a full March and April. His .293 isolated power is so impressive that should he manage to sustain it, it will be the highest such mark of his career. To sustain his stratospheric isolated power, however, he will need to also keep up a very impressive 20.0 home run to fly ball percentage. Since he has already had a higher home run to fly ball percentage in two previous seasons, 2004 (22.4 HR/FB%) and 2005 (21.2 HR/FB%), it is not outside the realm of possibility that he can do so again.<br /><br />The 2011 March and April Teixeira put up is a far cry from what he did in his other two seasons as a New York Yankee. In 2009, he started off the season hitting .200/.367/.371 with a .330 wOBA. To get to his season totals, Teixeira had to improve his batting average by 46.0 percent (.292), his on-base percentage by 4.4 percent (.383), his slugging percentage by 52.3 percent (.565), and his wOBA by 21.8 percent (.402).<br /><br />Last season, Teixeira dug himself an even deeper hole, starting off with a March and April batting just .136/.300/.259 with a .270 wOBA. With such a slow start to the season, Teixeira was required to improved his batting average by 88.2 percent (.256), his on-base percentage by 21.7 percent (.365), his slugging percentage by 85.7 percent (.481), and his wOBA by 35.9 percent (.367). The opening month hole was so deep that even with his stellar hitting the rest of the season, 2010 was his worst hitting season since his rookie year.<br /><br />As one can see, it has been when Teixeira has put balls in play that he has struggled the most for the Yankees in March and April. Fortunately for him and his team, that has not been a concern this season since he is hitting with such a tremendous amount of power, he will not have to scramble to try to turn an awful start into a productive season. <br /><br />With the sort of confidence that such a hot start brings with it, we might all be witnessing one of the best seasons Teixeira has had as a professional baseball player.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-83597323457784527862011-05-06T11:17:00.003-04:002011-05-06T13:56:17.762-04:002011 NFL Draft: Philip Rivers' Big Pass Plays Will Continue With New Target, Vincent BrownFor three straight years San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has led the NFL in yards per pass attempt, and his reign at the top of that passing category will no doubt continue with the drafting of former San Diego State wide receiver, Vincent Brown, in the third round. Of course, Rivers will only be able to benefit from Brown's big play ability if Brown is able to replicate what he did in college football, especially his last two seasons.<br /><br />Over Brown's collegiate career, he provided a decent amount of value to his San Diego State quarterbacks, but he was not overly impressive in his production by any means. <br /><br />After Brown's wide receiving statistics, which include his receptions, passes on which he was targeted, and receptions, were removed from San Diego State's quarterbacks' passing statistics, the quarterbacks experienced a .9 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 57.0 percent to 56.5 percent), a 5.5 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.3 to 6.9), a 4.7 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.8 to 12.2), and an 8.3 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent).<br /><br />Brown's career numbers are not as impressive as some of the top wide receivers taken in the draft like <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/608464-jonathan-baldwin-and-aldrick-robinson-are-nfls-next-big-play-wide-receivers">Jonathan Baldwin, Aldrick Robinson</a>, <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/627223-2011-nfl-draft-torrey-smith-will-not-be-a-bust-like-darrius-heyward-bey">Torrey Smith</a>, <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/612212-2011-nfl-draft-aj-green-vs-julio-jones">A.J. Green</a>, or Leonard Hankerson, but the Chargers are not interested in what Brown did over his whole career. They want him to do for them what he did over his last two seasons at San Diego State.<br /><br />Over his last two seasons, which included 20 games, once Brown's wide receiving statistics are removed from San Diego State's quarterbacks' passing statistics, the quarterbacks underwent a 2.3 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 56.8 percent to 55.5 percent), a 12.9 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 8.5 to 7.4), a 10.7 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 14.9 to 13.3), and an 8.8 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 6.8 percent to 6.2 percent).<br /><br />While those fantastic seasons still were not better than the best seasons of Baldwin, Robinson, or Smith, they are still extremely valuable and made Brown the fourth-best wide receiver in the draft in terms of value given to his college quarterbacks.<br /><br />Since Rivers has already proven so adept at gaining huge chunks of yardage per pass attempt, adding a wide receiver of Brown's caliber, who has elite-level ability in terms of aiding a quarterback in that statistical category, will ensure that the Chargers continue to have one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the NFL.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-50829433943372285312011-05-04T10:51:00.003-04:002011-05-04T13:15:41.688-04:002011 NFL Draft: Pat Devlin Deserves A Legitimate Chance In The NFLBased on the quarterbacks who were drafted in the 2011 NFL Draft, the fact that former University of Delaware Blue Hen quarterback Pat Devlin went undrafted shows just how convoluted the NFL's process for selecting quarterbacks truly is. Despite the numerous interviews and the multiple workouts NFL teams put prospective quarterbacks through, most teams have no idea what they should truly look for when trying to predict how a college quarterback will perform in the NFL. <br /><br />Even though Devlin went undrafted, his college football résumé measures up extremely favorably to every quarterback who was drafted; for the purposes of this article, his college statistics will only be compared to the six quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds of the draft who started at least two seasons of college football.<br /><br />Accuracy is the most important tool a college quarterback can possess when making the transition to the NFL, and those quarterbacks who have been able to consistently put up excellent completion percentages across multiple seasons are those who are most likely to experience success in professional football. <br /><br />Under that criterion, it is Devlin and no other quarterback who is best suited to quarterback an NFL team. In his first year as Delaware's primary quarterback (games in which he either attempted the most passes or threw for the most yards) after transferring from Penn State, Devlin completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Devlin then followed that up in his second year as a starter by completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt.<br /><br />Part of his improvement in completion percentage from his junior to senior season is because his yards per completion dropped from an average of 12.1 yards to 11.6 yards. Even so, there is no doubt Devlin has elite accuracy.<br /><br />It becomes even more elite when compared to the quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds who started more than one season in college football. Devlin's career completion percentage of 66.0 percent as a primary quarterback is statistically significantly better than Jake Locker's (54.0 percent), Blaine Gabbert's (61.2 percent), Christian Ponder's (62.4 percent), Andy Dalton's (61.6 percent), and Colin Kaepernick's (58.3 percent). Although Devlin's career completion percentage was not statistically significantly better than Ryan Mallett's (60.2 percent) due to Mallett's incredibly inconsistency in his accuracy, it was still much better; in fact, it was 9.6 percent better.<br /><br />Since no other quarterback in the draft could hold a candle to Devlin in terms of being very accurate across multiple seasons, it is absurd that no team was willing to reward him for his college football career. He should have been at the very least highly drafted. In a perfect world, he would have been the first quarterback chosen.<br /><br />Devlin's college career is also superior to the career of former Delaware and current Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco.<br /><br />For his college career, Flacco completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt, both worse than Devlin's 66.0 completion percentage and 7.8 yards per pass attempt.<br /><br />Devin also had a higher touchdown percentage than Flacco (5.2 percent to 4.4 percent), which made up for the fact he had a slightly higher interception percentage (1.7 percent to 1.6 percent).<br /><br />There is not much more a college quarterback could have done to convince the NFL he is worthy of a shot to start than to have a better college career than an NFL starting quarterback than what Devlin accomplished. Devlin did every single thing he needed to do to warrant an NFL team giving him a legitimate shot to be a team's franchise quarterback.<br /><br />Unfortunately for Devlin, based on the fact he went undrafted, it is improbable that a team will allow him to truly compete for a starting quarterback position. Therefore, the NFL's thinking that he will not succeed in the NFL will become a self-fulfilling prophecy as he will probably never be given a chance to prove otherwise.<br /><br />Devlin certainly deserves that opportunity, however.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-79926196343599090732011-05-02T23:16:00.003-04:002011-05-02T23:48:18.904-04:00LeBron James And Not Derrick Rose Was The NBA's MVPMiami Heat forward LeBron James has proved himself a prophet. By joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in South Beach, James predicted that he was eliminating himself from MVP contention, and that is exactly what has happened. Despite being the most valuable player in the league for the third straight season, he will have to watch as his award goes to a much less deserving player in Derrick Rose.<br /><br />Even though James was unable to duplicate the efficient production of his two previous seasons, seasons which rival Michael Jordan at his best, James was still the best player to step on the court for the 2010-11 NBA season.<br /><br />James once again <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html">led</a> the league in PER (27.3), offensive win shares (10.3), total win shares (15.6), and win shares contributed per 48 minutes (0.244). By every objective statistical measure, James was the MVP and all the voters who elected not to give it to him are putting their complete ignorance on display.<br /><br />Rose's MVP campaign was so full of erroneous conclusions that it hid the fact he was not even the second-best candidate for the award. Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Chris Paul <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011_leaders.html">can all claim</a> to have contributed more total win shares to their teams than Rose. Rose drops to eighth in the league when win shares contributed per 48 minutes are factored in.<br /><br />There was an award that Derrick Rose did deserve, but the voters wrongly gave the Most Improved Award to Kevin Love instead. It was Rose and not Love that improved the most from last season to this one. <br /><br />Rose experienced a 26.3 percent decrease in his PER (from 18.6 to 23.5) and a 108 percent increase in his win shares contributed per 48 minutes (from 0.100 to 0.208). Love can only boast a 17.4 percent increase in PER (from 20.7 to 24.3) and a 52.2 percent increase in win shares contributed per 48 minutes (0.138 to 0.210). Just like there was no contest between James and Rose as to who was the league's MVP, there was no contest between Rose and Love as to who was most improved.<br /><br />Although Rose might take the NBA MVP award home with him, it is not rightfully his. Only James is worthy of that title this season.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-2097286239024046462011-05-02T09:33:00.005-04:002011-05-02T13:00:07.229-04:00Indiana Pacers Might As Well Hire Frank VogelFrank Vogel wants the <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=6443700">interim tag removed</a> from his head coaching title, and while he does have a case that he earned a chance to be the Indiana Pacers' head coach, it is by no means an airtight one. The Pacers improved under Vogel, but the improvement was more slight than the increase in winning percentage might lead one to believe.<br /><br />Before Vogel replaced former Indiana Pacers head coach Jim O'Brien, the Pacers had limped to a 17-27 record, giving the team a .386 winning percentage after the first 44 games. After Vogel assumed the reins, the Pacers went on to win 20 of the 38 regular season contests remaining for a .526 winning percentage.<br /><br />However, sometimes win-loss records do not tell the whole story, and what those win-loss records do not reveal is by what a small amount the Pacers really did improve.<br /><br />With O'Brien as their head coach, the Pacers were outscored by their opponents by 1.6 points per 100 possessions, scoring 104.1 points per 100 possessions on offense and allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions on defense.<br /><br />Under Vogel, the Pacers increased overall by one point per 100 possessions and were outscored by their opponents by 0.6 points per 100 possessions, scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions on offense and allowing 107.7 points per 100 possessions. <br /><br />The Pacers' inferiority to their opponents increased to being outscored by 1.4 points per 100 possessions when the playoff series against the Chicago Bulls is included, but if Vogel is hired, it will probably be because of how the Pacers finished the regular season.<br /><br />Of course, improving by one point per 100 possessions does not suddenly thrust the Pacers into the conversation of elite NBA teams so if Vogel does have the interim tag removed, do not look for the Pacers to compete for a title next season.<br /><br />Vogel has already made it very clear that he thinks he deserves a chance to be the team's head coach. His campaign should also be supported by Tyler Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Roy Hibbert, A.J. Price, and Paul George.<br /><br />It is Hansbrough who received the most benefit from Vogel taking over head coaching duties. Hansbrough went from playing 32.4 percent of the Pacers' minutes for O'Brien to 54.7 percent of the Pacers' minutes for Vogel. His role in the offense also increased as his usage percentage went from 21.3 percent to 23.9 percent and the percentage of shots he took for the Pacers while on the floor went from 21.2 percent to 25.0 percent.<br /><br />Hansbrough rewarded Vogel's confidence by largely maintaining the 53.4 true shooting percentage he had for O'Brien; he posted a 52.7 true shooting percentage over the rest of the regular season under Vogel.<br /><br />Jones would also have a lot to look forward to from Vogel being retained as head coach. His percentage of team minutes played also increased dramatically from 13.4 percent to 29.2 percent. Additionally, his scoring average improved from 2.7 points per game to 7.2 points per game while his true shooting percentage went from 48.9 percent to 56.6 percent.<br /><br />Hibbert will also remember his time under Vogel as a time when he played his best basketball even though it took him accepting a different role to do so. After a hot start to the season, Hibbert started playing tremendously poor basketball, and at the end of O'Brien's tenure, he had just a 47.5 true shooting percentage.<br /><br />For the rest of the regular season, Hibbert posted a 54.5 true shooting percentage helped in part by the fact he was asked to do less on offense. Vogel no doubt realized Hibbert is not a player who is able to carry a high percentage of the offense and so decreased his usage percentage from 24.9 percent to 22.4 percent and the percentage of shots he took from 25.1 percent to 21.8 percent.<br /><br />Since Hibbert did play so much better, it was a necessary trade-off.<br /><br />Price and George are in the same boat as they would look forward to a return from Vogel because it would allow them more time on the court. Price's minute percentage increased from 26.3 percent for O'Brien to 33.9 percent for Vogel and George's minute percentage jumped from 33.4 percent under O'Brien to 47.2 percent for Vogel. <br /><br />With the Pacers' modest mid-season improvement and the support of the five players who all benefited from having him as their coach, Vogel should have a decent chance of getting the Pacers' head coaching position; the Pacers could do a lot worse than Vogel.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-34240355267886470012011-04-25T09:37:00.003-04:002011-04-25T11:20:38.937-04:00NBA Draft: Isaiah Thomas Will Be A Better Pure Point Guard Than Nate RobinsonSoon there will be another diminutive (by NBA standards) point guard in the NBA that hails from the University of Washington and this one, Isaiah Thomas, has the potential to be a more pure point guard than Nate Robinson, by which I mean that he will be able to do a better job of setting up his teammates for baskets while avoiding turnovers.<br /><br />Both Robinson and Thomas had very similar career paths in college in terms of both their shooting and distribution of the ball. During each of their three seasons at the University of Washington, they saw their shooting percentages increase while the percentage of the shots they took for their teams decreased.<br /><br />Robinson's true shooting percentage and percentage of shots taken for his teams went from 52.3 percent and 30.0 percent as a freshman to 55.9 percent and 24.1 percent as a sophomore to 58.7 percent and 22.9 percent as a junior. <br /><br />Thomas' true shooting percentage and percentage of shots taken for his teams went from 51.1 percent and 28.9 percent as a freshman to 54.0 percent and 26.9 percent as a sophomore to 55.6 percent and 23.6 percent as a junior.<br /><br />Robinson was a better shooter in college than Thomas and would probably be better off playing more shooting guard in the NBA, but his lack of height pretty much forces NBA teams into playing him at point guard and it is there where Thomas has more potential than Robinson did before he entered the NBA.<br /><br />Although neither was really asked to be play point guard exclusively in their first two collegiate seasons, as juniors, each was asked to assume more point guard duties. Robinson split distribution duties with teammate Will Conroy as head coach Lorenzo Romar also realized that Robinson was at his best when he was not the team's primary point guard and could better help the team in more of a combo guard role.<br /><br />Still, Robinson had his best year as a distributor. He averaged 4.5 assists per game and assisted on 23.6 percent of his teammate's shots while on the floor. His 12.7 turnover percentage was also the lowest of his career in college.<br /><br />Thomas had no teammate with which to share point guard duties in his junior season and it showed as he handled his role as the team's primary point guard extremely well. In that season, Thomas averaged 6.3 assists per game and assisted on 33.5 percent of his team's made field goals while he was on the floor. He also managed to keep his turnovers down to a respectable level with a 16.8 turnover percentage.<br /><br />If Thomas does elect to remain in the NBA Draft, he will have an advantage that Robinson never experienced. Due to the fact he has already had the experience of running an offense full-time and has shown the ability to do it proficiently, he will enter the NBA more ready to take over a team's offense, which will make his transition a lot easier and set him up to be a more successful point guard.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-88583803661736403642011-04-20T11:16:00.003-04:002011-04-20T12:15:44.423-04:00UNC's Harrison Barnes Still Has Something To ProveWith Harrison Barnes' decision to return to the University of North Carolina for his sophomore season, he accomplished two tasks. The first was to set up the Tar Heels as one of the top national title contenders for the 2011-12 season and the second was to allow the NBA to find out if Barnes really is as good as he was over the second half of the season.<br /><br />Although Barnes entered college as a much-heralded player, his Tar Heel career got off to an abysmal start by any measure, especially when it came to his shooting. Over the first 19 games of his 37-game season, Barnes posted a woefully inadequate effective field goal percentage of 42.8 percent and true shooting percentage of 47.0 percent, not what one expects from a supposedly star player.<br /><br />Barnes also struggled when it came to his handling of the ball as he turned the ball over more than he dished out assists. His 15.2 turnover percentage easily negated his 9.6 assist percentage.<br /><br />All that changed over the last 18 games of the season, starting with UNC's contest against rival North Carolina State where Barnes netted his first 20-point game as a collegian. From that game onward, Barnes became a statistically significant better player in terms of effective field goal percentage (53.5 percent), true shooting percentage (56.1 percent), and avoiding turnovers (8.4 turnover percentage).<br /><br />Not only did Barnes shoot better over the second half of the season, but he did so while assuming a larger role in the team's offense. Barnes' usage percentage jumped from 25.0 percent to 28.0 percent and the percentage of the team's shots that he took while on the floor increased from 26.4 percent to 31.7 percent. That combination of shooting well from the floor and taking such a high percentage of UNC's field goal attempts meant Barnes was a legitimate star and go-to player in the second half of the season.<br /><br />With his expanded role in the offense and his much improved shooting, it should come as no surprise that Barnes' points per game average increased by 66.9 percent from 11.8 points per game to 19.7 points per contest.<br /><br />The only facet of the game where Barnes did not improve was in his ability to get to the free throw line as he took 4.8 field goal attempts for every free throw attempt over the second half of the season as opposed to 3.3 field goal attempts for every free throw attempt during the first 19 games.<br /><br />However, that is a minor quibble since he shot so well from the field that a lack of free throw attempts was something with which the Tar Heels could live.<br /><br />Now all Barnes has to prove is that his exploits over the second half of the season are indicative of how he can really play. If he can accomplish that feat, then he will have earned the high draft pick an NBA team will no doubt use on him.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-17848123240962138672011-04-19T13:23:00.005-04:002011-04-19T23:29:11.519-04:00Carmelo Anthony Has Played His Best Basketball For The New York KnicksThere can be no arguing that the blockbuster trade that landed the New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony has paid off in the short run. Not only did the Knicks improve as a team after the trade, but Anthony played the best basketball of his career for the franchise.<br /><br />In the 54 games prior to Anthony's arrival on the Knicks' roster, the Knicks had only outscored their opponents by 0.4 points per 100 possessions, which is the make-up of a team barely above .500. Yet, all that changed after the trade.<br /><br />Over the next 27 games, the Knicks played a much more efficient style of basketball, outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per 100 possessions; the last game of the season was not counted because Anthony did not appear in it. The Knicks were not playing elite basketball by any means, but they were significantly better than they had been before the trade.<br /><br />A large part of the reason for the Knicks' improvement was the play of the true target of the blockbuster trade deal, Carmelo Anthony. Anthony easily outpaced what he had done for his previous team, the Denver Nuggets.<br /><br />For the Nuggets this year in 50 games, he posted a true shooting percentage of 54.7 percent, produced 107 points per 100 possessions, and contributed 0.127 win shares per 48 minutes. Had he continued along that same track for the rest of the season, he would have had the fourth-worst season of his eight-year career.<br /><br />However, he did not. His true shooting percentage jumped up to 57.5 percent, thanks in large part to him shooting an uncharacteristically high 42.4 percent from the three-point line; for his career, including those 27 games, Anthony has shot 32.0 percent on three-pointers.<br /><br />Due mostly to his increased shooting efficiency, Anthony produced 114 points per 100 possessions and contributed 0.157 win shares per 48 minutes, which are superior to anything he has ever done over a full season.<br /><br />Since Anthony's offensive proficiency is unlike anything he has ever accomplished in his career, it will probably be too much to expect for him to continue to play as well in the future as he did over those 27 games for the Knicks, but it has certainly been an extraordinarily good ride for Anthony and the Knicks so far.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-27002187962686864162011-04-14T12:41:00.003-04:002011-04-14T13:50:47.633-04:00Rudy Gay Is Not That Valuable To The Memphis GrizzliesEven though Rudy Gay played the best basketball of his career this season in his 54 games before suffering a season-ending injury, there cannot help but be some doubt in the Memphis Grizzlies organization about the decision to award Gay a maximum contract extension. The doubt has surely crept in because of how little the Grizzlies have missed Gay over the past 28 contests. In fact, the Grizzlies have actually played better without Gay in the line-up.<br /><br />Over the course of the 54 games in which Gay was in the line-up for the Grizzlies, Memphis outscored their opponents by 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Yet, in the 28 games in which the Grizzlies did not have Gay, they outscored their opponents by 3.6 points per 100 possessions, games which include the last two contests of the season where the Grizzlies were not even trying to win.<br /><br />There was no single statistical category in which the Grizzlies became worse when they played without their second-highest paid player.<br /><br />The way in which the Grizzlies have easily been able to survive without Gay is reflected in the fact he has been just the fourth most valuable player for the Grizzlies in terms of win shares per 48 minutes behind Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Tony Allen.<br /><br />Despite Rudy Gay playing better than ever before, he has been just another guy for the Grizzlies this season, and maximum contract guys are supposed to be so much more than that.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-61728123926885178852011-04-13T10:31:00.003-04:002011-04-13T12:03:25.583-04:00Shaka Smart's True Coaching Ability Is Still To Be DeterminedNorth Carolina State should not feel too disappointed that Virginia Commonwealth basketball head coach Shaka Smart turned down a job offer to coach the Wolfpack. In the end, it might be a blessing in disguise because the jury is still out on just how good a coach Shaka Smart truly is.<br /><br />The excitement that surrounded Virginia Commonwealth's road to the Final Four covered up both the advantages Smart had this season with his team and also where the Rams came up short even with those advantages.<br /><br />This past season, Smart's Virginia Commonwealth squad enjoyed a roster stability of .81, meaning that 81 percent of the team's minutes were played by players who were on the roster last year. That is the equivalent of losing just one position player and should have set up the Rams to have a better season than they did last year.<br /><br />Yet, despite having such a veteran squad and winning their five out of their last six games, the Rams were not as dominant as the 2009-10 team. This past season, the Rams outscored their opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions, but last season, the Rams outscored their opponents by 14.2 points per 100 possessions. <br /><br />They might not have had as much national exposure as the 2010-11 team, but they were better over the course of the season. However, even the accomplishments of the 2009-10 roster that went on to win the CBI championship are made a little less noteworthy by the fact that the team also had a lot of experience; the roster stability in 2009-10 was .80.<br /><br />In his two seasons as a college basketball head coach, Smart has enjoyed an amazingly high level of roster stability, which usually makes a head coach look better because the longer a group of players stays together, the better that group will perform. Therefore, Smart deserves some criticism for the fact Virginia Commonwealth had a less dominant season than last year since the team should have been expected to at least maintain their level of play if not improve due to the overwhelming veteran presence on the roster.<br /><br />Of course, Smart's luck will run out next year and he will actually have to prove to everyone he can build a winning program across multiple seasons. This season, 54 percent of the team's minutes were played by seniors so for the first time next season, Smart will be working with a team that is not so veteran-laden. How his teams perform over the next couple seasons will go a long way in allowing us to truly gauge his coaching acumen and determining his level of competence in actually building a successful college basketball program.<br /><br />Smart's situation is very similar to that of current Virginia basketball head coach Tony Bennett. He, too, enjoyed the benefit of having great roster stability his first two seasons as a head coach at Washington State.<br /><br />His first team in 2007-08 had a roster stability of .85 and outscored opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions. His second team in 2008-09 had an astounding roster stability of .98 and outscored opponents by 17.0 points per 100 possessions.<br /><br />Then, in his third season, Bennett's team's roster stability dropped to .63 and when he needed to coach his best, he was not up to the task. That squad managed to outscore opponents by only 6.5 points per 100 possessions. It was in his third season where we first glimpsed that Bennett was not necessarily that great a coach and was only a product of having such veteran-laden teams in his first two seasons.<br /><br />The Virginia Cavaliers decided to ignore that glimpse and hire Bennett anyway. They were rewarded by having him coach a team with a roster stability of .90 that outscored their opponents by 5.4 points per 100 possessions, which was an improvement, although an expected one no matter who was coaching the team, over how the Cavaliers had played the previous season.<br /><br />In this past season, however, with a roster stability of .62, the Cavaliers were outscored by .9 points per 100 possessions, demonstrating once again the fact that Bennett struggles whenever he does not have an abundance of veteran talent on his roster. It is his failure in that aspect that will keep him from being a good coach.<br /><br />Smart will have to avoid the same fate that has befallen Bennett to truly earn the accolades that have been showered upon him thus far, and we will all have to wait and see just how good a coach Smart really is, starting with next season.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-41304976586247251642011-04-11T09:54:00.003-04:002011-04-11T11:19:15.321-04:00Blake Griffin Should Never Have Defended Former Oklahoma Basketball Coach Jeff CapelBlake Griffin can <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=6221727">complain about and defend</a> Oklahoma's decision to fire former basketball head coach Jeff Capel all he wants, but that will not change the truth of the situation. Capel's firing was completely warranted for the simple fact that he failed at the most basic aspect of coaching college sports; Capel failed to reload his roster and sustain success.<br /><br />The best coaches and those who have the most job security are those who are able to replace star players with more star players and maintain a constant level of elite play from their teams across multiple seasons. Those who are fired after a couple of seasons are the ones who are unable to do so.<br /><br />Capel falls into the latter category because he was never able to duplicate the success he had when Blake Griffin was on the court for him. In the 68 games during which Griffin played for Oklahoma, the Sooners outscored their opponents by 12.0 points per 100 possessions.<br /><br />In the subsequent 63 games the Oklahoma Sooners have played, they have been outscored by 2.9 points per 100 possessions so his teams have been 14.9 points per 100 possessions worse since Griffin left for the NBA.<br /><br />The differences between the offensive ratings (from 110.9 points per 100 possessions to 105.3 points per 100 possessions) and defensive ratings (98.9 points per 100 possessions to 108.2 points per 100 possessions) from the Blake Griffin era to the post-Blake Griffin era were both statistically significant ones.<br /><br />Unfortunately for the Sooners, they forgot both how to score and defend in a proficient manner over the past two seasons.<br /><br />Even without the decline the Sooners experienced after Griffin left Oklahoma, Capel deserved to be fired because his teams were not even equaling his first year in Norman, Oklahoma. Capel's first-year record of 16-15 was pretty misleading because despite having a record just a little bit above .500, the Sooners still outscored their opponents by 13.8 points per 100 possessions thanks to some really impressive blowout wins. They did not come close to that over the past two seasons.<br /><br />Although Capel's struggles after Griffin left is the most readily apparent line of demarcation in his coaching tenure at Oklahoma, his last two teams have left a lot to be desired compared to his first Oklahoma team. <br /><br />No matter what kind of coach Griffin believes Capel is, there is no denying he has been mediocre at assembling a successful basketball program over the past two seasons and deserved to be fired.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-21119912144845463462011-04-04T14:14:00.003-04:002011-04-04T16:24:43.749-04:00UCONN Is Riding More Impressive Winning Streak Than ButlerBoth the Connecticut Huskies and the Butler Bulldogs enter the national championship game with double-digit winning streaks as Connecticut has not lost in 10 games and Butler has won the last 14 games in which it has played. Yet, not all winning streaks are equal and Connecticut's winning streak has been the more impressive one, making them the hotter team.<br /><br />Over the course of the Huskies' 10-game winning streak, they have managed to outscore their opponents by a very impressive 16.1 points per 100 possessions. That tops the 14.4 points per 100 possessions with which the Bulldogs have outscored their last 14 opponents.<br /><br />Although the Huskies are owners of the more dominant winning streak, Butler's has come with a little more consistency. The standard deviation for the Bulldogs' offensive rating during their winning streak is 8.1 points per 100 possessions and the standard deviation for their defensive rating is 10.6 points per 100 possessions.<br /><br />On the other hand, Connecticut's standard deviations for their offensive rating and defensive rating are 12.3 and 12.7 points per 100 possessions, respectively. <br /><br />The reason behind Connecticut's more inconsistent results is that the Huskies have won in a couple of really big blowouts in addition to playing in more closely contested affairs while Butler has been unable to win in quite the same commanding fashion and has played in a higher percentage of close games.<br /><br />Ten of Butler's 14 wins have come with a winning margin of fewer than 10 points compared to six of Connecticut's 10 wins being single-digit affairs.<br /><br />Should Connecticut emerge victorious tonight, the Huskies may very well have the fact that they have played a better quality of basketball during their winning streak than the Bulldogs did during theirs to thank.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-85472058535163590372011-04-02T14:03:00.004-04:002011-04-02T17:41:18.248-04:00Virginia Commonwealth Has Had Easiest Road To The Final FourVirginia Commonwealth's improbable run to the Final Four makes for a great story, but the Rams have benefited from having a lucky draw in the NCAA Tournament. Of the four teams remaining, Virginia Commonwealth has faced the least dominant competition.<br /><br />Before facing the Rams and having their seasons ended, Virginia Commonwealth's four NCAA Tournament opponents combined to outscore their opposition by 14.0 points per 100 possessions, which is the smallest such winning margin of any of the Final Four's NCAA Tournament opponents.<br /><br />Although Virginia Commonwealth's offense has had to play against the stingiest defenses based on the fact its opponents have held their opponents to only 95.9 points per 100 possessions, Virginia Commonwealth's defense has benefited by having to defend offenses who have scored just 109.9 points per 100 possessions. That offensive rating is the lowest of any of the Final Four's NCAA Tournament opponents.<br /><br />As for the other teams left, Connecticut and Kentucky have faced almost equally dominant opponents in the NCAA Tournament. Connecticut's tournament foes outscored their opposition by 15.4 points per 100 possessions before Connecticut ended their seasons, and Kentucky's tournament opposition outscored their opponents by 15.3 points per 100 possessions before they played Kentucky and were subsequently sent home.<br /><br />Unsurprisingly, based on the fact Butler had to play Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Florida to make it to the Final Four, the Bulldogs can boast that the road they traveled to make it to the Final Four was the most difficult, making it even more impressive that they made it to Houston. Butler's tournament opponents outscored their opponents by a combined 16.0 points per 100 possessions before they squared off against the Bulldogs.<br /><br />Teams can only play the teams on their schedule, and Virginia Commonwealth does deserve credit for beating multiple opponents who had better seasons, but if they had had to face the other three teams' opponents, they might not have made it to the Final Four.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-5680653024053092212011-04-01T10:46:00.005-04:002011-04-01T19:08:17.031-04:00Dwyane Wade Is More At Fault Than LeBron James and Chris Bosh When The Miami Heat LoseWhen LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade in Miami to join the Heat, they probably never imagined Wade would let them do so thoroughly in the games the Heat lost. Yet, that is exactly what has happened in their 23 losses this season as Wade has been most at fault in those contests.<br /><br />Wade has a well-earned reputation as a very effective all-around player, but you would not know it based on how he performs in losses in relation to how he has performed when the Heat have won.<br /><br />There is no part of Wade's game that does not become drastically worse when the Heat lose and it starts with how poorly he shoots in those games. In relation to how he shoots in Heat victories, in losses, his effective field goal percentage experiences a 20.8 percent decrease (from 55.3 percent to 43.8 percent) and a 17.4 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 60.8 percent to 50.2 percent). Wade essentially goes from being a supremely effective scorer in wins to a mediocre one in Heat losses.<br /><br />Wade also finds it difficult to maintain his level of proficiency when it comes to ballhandling. Compared to how he plays in victories, in defeats, Wade sees his assist percentage decrease by 6.7 percent (from 23.8 percent to 22.2 percent). That decrease can be understood as the whole Heat team shoots worse in defeats, but what cannot be understood is Wade's increased penchant for committing turnovers.<br /><br />In defeats, Wade's turnover percentage increases dramatically by 43.9 percent (from 10.7 percent to 15.4 percent). By turning the ball over so much, he is keeping the offense from playing more efficiently.<br /><br />Furthermore, in an effort to make sure he does not play well in any aspect, Wade also sees fit to become a much worse rebounder. When the Heat lose, Wade experiences a 38.1 percent decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (from 6.3 percent to 3.9 percent), a 14.1 percent decrease in defensive rebounding percentage (from 14.9 percent to 12.8 percent), and a 25.5 percent decrease in total rebounding percentage (from 11.0 percent to 8.2 percent).<br /><br />Although Wade struggles the most to maintain his statistics in losses, Bosh and James are certainly not off the hook when it comes to playing poorly in defeats. They just do not play as poorly as Wade does compared to their performances in victories.<br /><br />Bosh becomes a poorer shooter in defeats as he undergoes an 11.4 percent decrease in his effective field goal percentage (from 50.7 percent to 44.9 percent) and a 9.7 percent decrease in his true shooting percentage (from 57.9 percent to 52.3 percent). <br /><br />He also has problems with maintaining his rebounding percentage statistics. His 3.0 percent increase in his defensive rebounding percentage (from 19.7 percent to 20.3 percent) is overshadowed by his 22.4 percent decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (from 6.7 percent to 5.2 percent) and a 9.4 percent decrease in total rebounding percentage (from 13.8 percent to 12.5 percent).<br /><br />However, it is not all bad for Bosh in losses as he takes better care of the ball in Heat defeats. His assist percentage decreases by 2.2 percent (from 9.1 percent to 8.9 percent), but the 16.0 percent decrease he has in his turnover percentage (from 10.0 percent to 8.4 percent) more than makes up for that.<br /><br />In the case of James, the only thing that truly lets him down in Heat losses is his shooting touch. James undergoes an 11.4 percent decrease in his effective field goal percentage (from 56.3 percent to 49.9 percent) and a 9.1 percent decrease in his true shooting percentage (from 61.3 percent to 55.7 percent).<br /><br />Yet, in other aspects of the game, James actually gets better when the Heat lose, demonstrating what a talented all-around player he truly is. Compared to how he plays in wins, in defeats, James experiences a 3.5 percent increase in assist percentage (from 34.0 percent to 35.2 percent) and a 1.4 percent decrease in turnover percentage (from 13.9 percent to 13.7 percent) so he becomes a better ballhandler.<br /><br />Additionally, he still crashes the boards amazingly well. Even with a 6.1 percent decrease in his offensive rebounding percentage (from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent), James still gets 1.8 percent better in total rebounding percentage (11.4 percent to 11.6 percent) thanks to an amazing 13.3 percent increase in defensive rebounding percentage (from 18.1 percent to 20.5 percent).<br /><br />Even when he is not shooting well, James is still able to make up for that deficiency in other ways.<br /><br />When it comes to losses, the Miami Heat could be considered Wade's team because, out of Miami's Big Three, it is how he performs that really determines whether or not the Heat win.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-15346232331126104762011-03-31T10:01:00.003-04:002011-03-31T10:57:31.371-04:00Derrick Rose's Poor Shooting Has Been Saved By Free ThrowsThis season, much was made of the work Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose put in over the offseason in an effort to improve his jump shooting. Supposedly, his attempt to improve his perimeter game would make him an even more dangerous shooting threat and a more efficient scorer. Instead, all it has seemed to do is lull him into a false sense of confidence and convince him that he is a better shooter than he really is.<br /><br />If Rose's offseason work had really made a difference in his shooting this year, then we could expect to see an improvement in his effective field goal percentage. The reality is that this season Rose is posting the lowest effective field goal percentage of his three-year career. His .478 effective field goal percentage trails both his rookie .482 effective field goal percentage and last year's .495 effective field goal percentage.<br /><br />Yet, despite shooting as poorly from the field as he ever has, Rose still has a 54.1 true shooting percentage, which is the highest true shooting percentage he has ever managed. The fact Rose has still managed to post a career-best true shooting percentage has everything to do with his trips to the free throw line, which is the aspect of Rose's game for which he should receive some of the highest praise.<br /><br />A quick way to judge just how proficient a player is at both getting to the free throw line and converting his free throws once he gets there is to subtract a player's effective field goal percentage from his true shooting percentage. The higher a player's difference, the better he is at converting free throws to get easy points, and Rose's .063 difference is a career-high.<br /><br />That difference is a direct result of the fact Rose has spent this season taking one free throw for every three field goal attempts. In his two previous seasons combined, Rose took 4.4 field goal attempts for every free throw he shot.<br /><br />Not only is Rose getting to the line more frequently, but he is also converting his free throws at a higher rate. His .855 free throw percentage is superior to the .776 free throw percentage of his two previous seasons combined.<br /><br />All praise that might be heaped upon Rose for the work he put into his perimeter shooting should instead be heaped upon him for his improved ability in scoring points from the free throw line. It has been the free throw line and not his jump shot that has resulted in Rose being a more efficient scorer.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-26588653879563975062011-03-30T12:48:00.004-04:002011-03-30T23:47:53.694-04:00Oliver Purnell Will Turn DePaul Basketball Into A Winning ProgramDePaul basketball fans should be comforted by the fact that this season where the Blue Demons only won seven games while losing 24 and were outscored by 12.9 points per 100 possessions will be the worst season the program has while Oliver Purnell is the head coach. Based on what took place at each of his three previous coaching stops, there are only brighter days ahead for DePaul basketball.<br /><br />It was at Old Dominion, a program Purnell took over in the 1991-92 season, where he first displayed the trend that continues to this day. In his first year as head coach, Purnell led his team to a .500 record of 15 victories and 15 defeats. Purnell then followed that up by coaching his 1992-93 squad to a 21-8 record and his 1993-94 team to a record of 21-10.<br /><br />Leaving Old Dominion, Purnell took his coaching acumen to Dayton where his team posted a record of only 7-20 in his first season. Never again did the Dayton Flyers have a season where they played as poorly as they did in 1994-95. <br /><br />After the nine seasons Purnell spent turning Dayton into a consistently winning program to the point where the Flyers went 24-6 in his final season as their coach, Clemson received the benefits of having Purnell roaming the sidelines.<br /><br />In what has become his modus operandi, Purnell's Clemson squad struggled in his first season, only winning 10 games and losing 18 games. For no other season did Clemson have a record with a winning percentage under .500.<br /><br />With that sort of coaching track record in turning around previously mediocre programs into winning ones, it is no great leap to expect that Purnell will be able to do the same thing with the DePaul Blue Demons. Of course, it is worth nothing that all the wins Purnell leads DePaul to will not result in any NCAA Tournament success. None of Purnell's teams have ever gotten past the first round of the tournament.<br /><br />Even with his multiple tournament failures providing the only blemish to his coaching résumé, DePaul certainly hired the right man for the job, and hopefully, DePaul's opponents enjoyed the dominance they had over the Blue Demons this season because it will not be that easy to beat them again while Purnell is their head coach.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-6315981837162568042011-03-17T11:01:00.006-04:002011-03-17T16:05:57.788-04:00New York Giants QB Eli Manning Has Been Left Behind by Philip Rivers, Ben RoethlisbergerNew York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who was the number one overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, is taking the biblical prophecy that the first will be last a little too literally as he has been surpassed by two quarterbacks taken behind him in the first round of the draft. <br /><br />Both San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have proven themselves to be much more proficient quarterbacks than Manning, although they were drafted after Manning, and have created a gap so sizable between themselves and Manning that he will likely never catch up.<br /><br />In Manning's 110 games as the Giants' primary quarterback, games in which he has either attempted the most passes or thrown for the most yards for the Giants, he has completed 58.1 percent of his passes and gained 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 6.2 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 6.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 5.5 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.<br /><br />Additionally, Manning has thrown 164 touchdowns (4.7 touchdown percentage) and 120 interceptions (3.4 interception percentage), not the kind of touchdown-to-interception ratio that lends itself to great success.<br /><br />By themselves, Manning's statistics are extremely unimpressive and they pale in comparison to the point of transparency when compared to how Rivers and Roethlisberger have performed when they have been the primary quarterbacks for their respective teams.<br /><br />After every game week, the Chargers should make it a point to call up Eli and Archie Manning and thank them for forcing the Chargers to execute a draft-day trade that landed the franchise a truly elite quarterback in Rivers. With Rivers, the Chargers' offense is in much better hands than it would be with Manning.<br /><br />Over the course of his career, which includes 87 games as primary quarterback, Rivers has been statistically significantly better than Manning in completion percentage (63.3 percent to 58.1 percent), yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.8), adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.2), net yards per pass attempt (7.2 to 6.1), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.2 to 5.5), touchdown percentage (5.3 percent to 4.7 percent), and interception percentage (2.5 percent to 3.4 percent).<br /><br />There is no facet of being a quarterback in which Rivers has not been superior to Manning, and across the board, every time Rivers drops back to pass, he will gain at least one more yard than will Manning.<br /><br />Roethlisberger, who was the third quarterback chosen in the first round of the 2004 NFL Draft, has not distanced himself from Manning as much as Rivers has, but he is still light years ahead of Manning in most statistical categories.<br /><br />After 111 games as the Steelers' primary quarterback, Roethlisberger has proven himself statistically significantly superior to Manning in completion percentage (63.0 percent to 58.1 percent), yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.8), adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.6 to 6.2), net yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 6.1), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.4 to 5.5).<br /><br />Roethlisberger also possesses a better touchdown percentage (5.2 percent to 4.7 percent) and interception percentage (3.2 percent to 3.4 percent), but not to the level of being statistically significant.<br /><br />Even Manning's best season, which occurred in 2009 and is a year he has never been able to duplicate, represents a statistical feat that both Rivers and Roethlisberger have reached multiple times.<br /><br />During 2009, in his 15 games as primary quarterback, Manning completed 62.3 percent of his passes and gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 7.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 6.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.<br /><br />Rivers can boast three seasons that are even better than Manning's 2009 campaign while Roethlisberger has also posted three seasons that compare favorably to Manning's career season.<br /><br />No matter how you slice it, the Giants ended up with the least desirable quarterback among these three.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-25689900190762992962011-03-15T09:48:00.003-04:002011-03-15T10:43:29.822-04:00Jeremy Shockey: Shockey Will Provide Very Little Value To The Carolina PanthersThe New Orleans Saints made the right decision in releasing tight end Jeremy Shockey. The Saints have a promising, young tight end in Jimmy Graham and in three years with Shockey on their roster, they found out what the Carolina Panthers will find out the next time football is played, which is that Shockey does little to aid the passing game anymore.<br /><br />In Shockey's three seasons with the Saints, once his passing statistics were removed from the Saints quarterbacks' numbers, they experienced a .6 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 68.1 percent to 67.7 percent), no change in yards per pass attempt (7.7), a 2.6 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 7.8), a .9 percent increase in yards per completion (from 11.3 to 11.4), a 5.3 increase in touchdown percentage (from 5.7 percent to 6.0 percent), and no change in interception percentage (2.6 percent).<br /><br />With Shockey on the team, the Saints received only the barest of increases in completion percentage. Other than that negligible change, throwing to Shockey did not benefit the Saints' passing offense and made them worse in other areas.<br /><br />Even in Shockey's 2009 season, which looked like a return to the form he had early in his career, his out was more a product of the amazing season Saints quarterback Drew Brees had than any newfound ability from Shockey.<br /><br />That season, once Shockey's statistics were removed, Saints quarterbacks underwent a .6 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 69.9 percent to 69.5 percent), a 1.2 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 8.5 to 8.6), a 2.2 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 9.2 to 9.4), a .8 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.2 to 12.3), a 1.3 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 7.5 percent to 7.6 percent), and a 21.1 percent decrease in interception percentage (from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent).<br /><br />Again, the only improvement Shockey made to the Saints' passing offense was the tiny raise he gave to his quarterbacks' completion percentages. They were better off throwing to other players when it came to the other statistical categories.<br /><br />Shockey's career tells a virtually identical story to his three-year stint with the Saints. Once his statistics were removed, his quarterbacks experienced .2 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 60.9 percent to 60.8 percent), no change in yards per pass attempt (7.0), a 1.5 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 6.5 to 6.6), a .9 percent increase in yards per completion (from 11.4 to 11.5), a 5.3 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent), and no change in interception percentage (2.9 percent).<br /><br />In Shockey's defense, there have been seasons in his career where his presence in the passing game did provide a valuable boost to his quarterbacks in at least three of the six statistical categories listed above. Those seasons occurred in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, and, to a much lesser extent, 2010. <br /><br />Since Shockey has played 10 NFL seasons, his quarterbacks have received little to no benefit just as often as they have received a good deal of value from throwing in Shockey's direction.<br /><br />Based on what he has done over his time in the NFL, going forward, it is unlikely that the Carolina Panthers quarterbacks will become better because of Shockey's presence on the field outside of the tiniest improvement he will provide to their completion percentages.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-49235773468319187382011-03-06T09:52:00.002-05:002011-03-06T12:27:52.056-05:00Philadelphia Eagles QB Michael Vick Faces Impossible Task Next SeasonIn electing to use the franchise tag on Michael Vick rather than sign him to a long-term contract, the Philadelphia Eagles threw down a very expensive gauntlet. Basically, the Eagles were challenging Vick to prove that his impressive quarterbacking last season was not a one-time fluke and was actually an accurate representation of his ability level now.<br /><br />To complete the task the Eagles gave him, Vick will have to replicate a season unlike any other he has ever had in his NFL career, making the completion all the more difficult. <br /><br />During last season in his 12 games as Philadelphia Eagles primary quarterback, games in which Vick either attempted the most passes or threw for the most passing yards for the Eagles, he completed 61.8 percent of his passes, gained 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 8.4 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 6.9 net yards per pass attempt, and 7.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, and threw 22 touchdowns (5.5 touchdown percentage) to seven interceptions (1.7 interception percentage). All of those statistics were career bests.<br /><br />Even the most ardent Vick detractors have to admit Vick put on a pretty amazing passing display last season, a display made even more impressive and improbable when his other seasons are considered.<br /><br />In order to determine just how much of a statistical outlier Vick's 2010 was, I compared it to four other seasons in which he was the primary quarterback for at least 12 games. Once that was done, I found that there were statistically significant differences in at least two categories between his 2010 season and every other one.<br /><br />For his 2002 season, which had been his best season before 2010, Vick's passing was statistically significantly inferior to his 2010 season in completion percentage (55.5 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (7.0 to 8.1), and adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 8.4).<br /><br />When his 2004 season was compared to his 2010 year, he was statistically significantly inferior in yards per pass attempt (7.1 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.2 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.5 to 6.9), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.8 to 7.2), interception percentage (3.7 percent to 1.7 percent), and sack percentage (12.2 percent to 8.4 percent).<br /><br />In relation to his 2010 campaign, his 2005 season was statistically significantly inferior in completion percentage (55.3 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (6.2 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.5 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.3 to 6.9), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.6 to 7.2), and yards per completion (11.3 to 13.1).<br /><br />His 2006 season saw him statistically significantly inferior to his 2010 one in completion percentage (52.4 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (6.4 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.9 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.1 to 6.9), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.6 to 7.2). <br /><br />There is simply no history to support the thinking that Vick will ever again have a season like the one he had in 2010, which is why the Eagles were smart not to commit to Vick for more than one more season. If he is unable to duplicate his 2010 exploits, then the Eagles will be able to release him and move on with a more reliable quarterbacking option. If Vick is able to have another season of that caliber, which seems a virtual impossibility given his track record, then they can move forward with a new contract, but not before knowing for sure what kind of quarterback Vick will be in the future. <br /><br />Until he proves he can play that well again, however, it is best to treat Vick's season as one would any statistical outlier; that is, with extreme skepticism.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-21997430545137799052011-03-05T09:06:00.004-05:002011-03-05T12:01:19.136-05:002011 NFL Draft: Torrey Smith Will Not Be A Bust Like Darrius Heyward-BeyTorrey Smith is the first highly touted University of Maryland wide receiver to enter the NFL draft since Darrius Heyward-Bey, who so far in his two-year NFL career has contributed nothing but negative value to the Oakland Raiders as measured by <a href="http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr">Football Outsiders'</a> DYAR and DVOA, but NFL teams thinking of drafting Smith should not worry that having Smith on their rosters will involve a repeat performance of Heyward-Bey's struggles. This lack of concern should stem from the knowledge that Smith is a better wide receiver than Heyward-Bey due to the fact he was a more valuable wide receiver in college.<br /><br />As I did in two <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/608464-jonathan-baldwin-and-aldrick-robinson-are-nfls-next-big-play-wide-receivers">previous</a> <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/612212-2011-nfl-draft-aj-green-vs-julio-jones">articles</a>, I measured value based on how Smith's quarterbacks fared once his statistics are removed from theirs compared to how they performed when his statistics were included in theirs.<br /><br />For Smith's Maryland career, once his statistics were removed from his quarterbacks', the quarterbacks experienced a 2.6 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 57.2 percent to 55.7 percent), an 8.8 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 6.8 to 6.2), a 6.7 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.9 to 11.1), and a 21.7 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 4.6 percent to 3.6 percent).<br /><br />During Heyward-Bey's Maryland career, once his statistics were removed, his quarterbacks underwent a .5 percent increase in completion percentage (from 60.6 percent to 60.9 percent), an 8.3 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.2 to 6.6), a 7.6 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 10.9), and a 13.5 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 3.7 percent to 3.2 percent). <br /><br />At first glance, it might look like the two former Terrapins are not far removed from each other in terms of ability and the value they provided to the Maryland passing game. Smith has sizable advantages in completion percentage value and touchdown percentage value, but only a small one in yards per pass attempt value. Heyward-Bey, on the other hand, seems to be able to claim superiority in yards per completion value, which would indicate he is capable of making bigger plays than Smith.<br /><br />However, their career statistics are misleading because of the polar opposite paths their collegiate careers took. Once that is factored in, Smith distances himself even more from Heyward-Bey.<br /><br />The only reason why Smith's production does not look even more valuable is because of his freshman year when he was barely utilized, only receiving 3.2 passes per game that season. Due to the small number of times the football was thrown in his direction, once his statistics were removed, Maryland quarterbacks did not experience a change in completion percentage, and they only got 1.5 percent worse in yards per pass attempt (from 6.7 to 6.6), 1.7 percent worse in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 11.6), and 10.5 percent worse in touchdown percentage (from 3.8 percent to 3.4 percent).<br /><br />When Smith was allowed a more integral role in the Maryland passing offense and given the opportunity to prove himself as a wide receiver in his sophomore and junior seasons, he was extremely valuable to his quarterbacks.<br /><br />As a sophomore, once his statistics were removed from his quarterbacks', Maryland's quarterbacks underwent a 4.1 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 58.5 percent to 56.1 percent), a 15.3 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 6.5 to 5.8), a 10.2 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.2 to 10.3), and a 22.6 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 3.1 percent to 2.4 percent).<br /><br />During his junior season, once his statistics were removed, his quarterbacks became 4.6 percent worse in completion percentage (from 56.3 percent to 53.7 percent), 15.3 percent worse in yards per pass attempt (from 7.2 to 6.1), 10.2 percent worse in yards per completion, and 23.2 percent worse in touchdown percentage (from 6.9 percent to 5.3 percent).<br /><br />Smith's sophomore and junior seasons top any season Heyward-Bey had at Maryland and are also indicative of a player who got better each season he was in college. <br /><br />Contrast that to Heyward-Bey, who had his best season as a freshman and got progressively worse over his career in the value he provided to his quarterbacks' yards per pass attempt and yards per completion averages.<br /><br />In his freshman year, once his statistics were removed, Heyward-Bey's quarterbacks experienced an 8.5 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.1 to 6.5) and a 9.4 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.7 to 10.6). <br /><br />As a sophomore, his quarterbacks underwent a 6.6 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 7.1) and an 8.5 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 10.8). <br /><br />During his junior season, his quarterbacks became 5.9 percent worse in yards per pass attempt (from 6.8 to 6.4) and 5.8 percent worse in yards per completion (from 12.0 to 11.3).<br /><br />When the Oakland Raiders drafted Heyward-Bey, they were drafting a wide receiver who had spent his entire time in college becoming less valuable as a wide receiver. Based on his career path, it is no wonder he has failed to make his mark in the NFL.<br /><br />When an NFL team drafts Smith, however, based on how he performed in his sophomore and junior seasons when he was a main figure in the Maryland passing game, the franchise should feel confident they are receiving an impact wide receiver that will provide good value to a passing attack.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-84100585026406086582011-03-03T08:59:00.007-05:002011-03-03T18:46:07.064-05:00Kentucky's Freshmen and Upperclassmen Share Fault When The Wildcats LoseJohn Calipari's second-least inexperienced team of the last four seasons has lost eight games this year, one fewer than Calipari's teams lost over the three previous seasons, but the reason behind their defeats does not lie entirely with their freshmen class. Kentucky's freshman trio of Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb along with the rest of the Wildcats all see a major decrease in their overall statistics in losses.<br /><br />Collectively, in relation to how the freshmen perform when Kentucky loses to how they perform when Kentucky wins, the freshmen experience a 15.5 percent decrease in effective field goal percentage (from 56.0 percent to 47.3 percent), an 11.2 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 58.9 percent to 52.3 percent), a 17.1 percent decrease in assist percentage (from 16.4 percent to 13.6 percent), a 2.1 percent decrease in turnover percentage (from 14.0 percent to 13.7 percent), a 14.6 percent decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (from 4.8 percent to 4.1 percent), a 5.7 percent decrease in defensive rebounding percentage (from 12.9 percent to 12.2 percent), a 13.2 percent decrease in total rebounding percentage (from 9.1 percent to 7.9 percent), and a 1.9 percent decrease in points per game (from 48.0 to 47.1).<br /><br />The rest of the team when Kentucky loses undergoes a 13.4 percent decrease in effective field goal percentage (from 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent), a 16.0 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 56.9 percent to 47.8 percent), an 8.2 percent decrease in assist percentage (from 8.5 percent to 7.8 percent), a 2.9 percent decrease in turnover percentage (from 13.6 percent to 13.2 percent), a 4.3 percent decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent), a .7 percent increase in defensive rebounding percentage (14.7 percent to 14.8 percent), a 4.1 percent decrease in total rebounding percentage (from 12.3 percent to 11.8 percent), and a 25.8 percent decrease in points per game (from 31.8 to 23.6).<br /><br />Although Kentucky's freshman trio have a bigger drop-off in their shooting percentages from the field than the rest of the team, they make up for it with their superior conversion of free throws. <br /><br />In losses, the rest of the team averages 3.5 fewer free throw attempts than they do in victories. The rest of the team also sees a drop in their free throw percentage from 69.4 percent in wins to 64.9 percent in losses.<br /><br />On the other hand, the freshman trio might take 1.3 fewer free throw attempts when Kentucky loses, but they raise their free throw percentage from 71.9 percent in wins to 77.4 percent in losses. Due to that improvement, Kentucky's freshman trio are only making .2 fewer free throw attempts per game in losses than they make in wins.<br /><br />Therefore, when it comes to total shooting, Kentucky's freshman trio do a better job of maintaining their shooting statistics.<br /><br />The struggle the rest of the team has in maintaining its true shooting percentage has a lot to do with its precipitous decline in points per game. Kentucky's offense is most reliant on the freshman trio for its production, but contributions from the other players are still necessary for the Wildcats to be at their best. When Kentucky does not receive those contributions, especially when the rest of the team averages 8.2 fewer points per game in losses, the team is destined to lose the game because while the freshman are very talented, they cannot do it all by themselves. <br /><br />When it comes to declines in assist percentage, it goes back to poor shooting from the field and since the freshman trio are the ones who have the bigger drop-off in effective field goal percentage, they are the most at fault in this category because it is impossible to get an assist when a teammate misses the shot.<br /><br />In rebounding, the freshmen are also responsible for most of the team's drop-off, keeping the team from being as efficient as possible on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.<br /><br />Among the freshman trio themselves, each carries responsibility for Kentucky's poor showing in losses.<br /><br />Brandon Knight's biggest problems are a result of his inferior shooting and assist percentage to turnover percentage ratio in defeats.<br /><br />Knight gets 21.0 percent worse in effective field goal percentage (from 57.7 percent to 45.6 percent) and 17.0 percent worse in true shooting percentage (from 61.3 percent to 50.9 percent). In turn, due to his inferior shooting in losses, he sees a 10.4 percent decrease in his points per game average (from 18.2 to 16.3).<br /><br />As a point guard whose <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/618944-kentucky-point-guard-brandon-knight-is-unique-among-john-caliparis-point-guards">value</a> is so closely tied to his shooting numbers, the drop-off of his shooting percentages in losses is most damaging to his production, but his decreased proficiency as a distributor is almost as damaging. <br /><br />When Kentucky loses, Knight undergoes a 12.8 percent decrease in assist percentage (from 23.4 percent to 20.4 percent) and a 24.2 percent increase in turnover percentage (from 16.1 percent to 20.0 percent). The decrease in assist percentage is forgivable because the whole team shoots so poorly in losses, but the increase in turnovers is unforgivable.<br /><br />Terrence Jones is the one freshman who is best at maintaining his shooting statistics across wins and losses. He experiences only a 4.9 percent decrease in effective field goal percentage (from 49.0 percent to 46.6 percent) and a 2.1 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 52.8 percent to 51.7 percent).<br /><br />However, he really comes up short with his rebounding numbers. In losses, Jones becomes 5.2 percent worse in offensive rebounding percentage (from 9.6 percent to 9.1 percent), 14.0 percent worse in defensive rebounding percentage (from 22.9 percent to 19.7 percent), and 15.5 percent worse in total rebounding percentage (from 16.8 percent to 14.2 percent).<br /><br />Doron Lamb does not do much for Kentucky besides shoot and it is his shooting proficiency that leaves him drastically in Kentucky's losses. Lamb experiences a 20.2 percent decrease in his effective field goal percentage (from 63.4 percent to 50.6 percent), a 14.2 percent decrease in his true shooting percentage (from 64.6 percent to 55.4 percent), and a 6.8 percent decrease in points per game (13.2 to 12.3).<br /><br />If Lamb does not shoot well, he is unable to help the Wildcats and lessens the chances of the team winning.<br /><br />When the Kentucky Wildcats lose, they do so as a team as each part of the team contributes in some way to the defeat. The true bellwethers for Kentucky's chances of winning a game are how many points the non-freshmen are contributing, how well Knight and Lamb are shooting, and how well Jones is rebounding. Figure those things out and you will be able to know if Kentucky won or lost.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-16126406577170920742011-03-02T09:32:00.004-05:002011-03-02T10:02:42.524-05:00Andre Iguodala's Improved Play Made It Impossible For The Philadelphia 76ers To Trade HimThere was a time in the NBA season, a little more than a quarter of a way through the schedule's 82 games, where trading Andre Iguodala made sense. His subpar play even prompted me to write <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/559501-andre-iguodala-trade-rumors-why-the-philadelphia-76ers-should-let-iggy-go">an article detailing</a> why the Philadelphia 76ers should trade him. However, after he came back from his Achilles injury, his improved overall play made it impossible for the 76ers to trade him.<br /><br />Before I penned the article, Iguodala was on his way to having a disappointing season and it looked like he was going to continue his decline since his best year in the 2007-08 season. A big reason why Iguodala's 2010-11 season looked like a lost cause and unhelpful to the 76ers' chances of winning was because of his poor shooting.<br /><br />In his 25 games before the article, Iguodala's 47.6 effective field goal percentage and 51.7 true shooting percentage were both well below his career shooting percentages. Additionally, his 108 points produced per 100 possessions were two points produced per 100 possessions below his career offensive rating. <br /><br />Had Iguodala continued to produce at that level, the 76ers would indeed have been better off without him, but he reversed his downward trend in a big way since returning from injury.<br /><br />During his 20 games after he returned to the 76ers' line-up and before the February 24th trade deadline, Iguodala posted a 49.1 effective field goal percentage and 55.1 true shooting percentage. His improvement in his shooting represents a 3.2 percent increase in effective field goal percentage and a 6.6 percent increase in true shooting percentage so his biggest jump has been in his increased ability to get to the free throw line as well as convert his chances once he gets there.<br /><br />For the 25 games previous to my article, Iguodala was taking one free throw for every 2.5 field goal attempts and converting just 66.4 percent of them. For his next 20 games, Iguodala shot a free throw once every 2.2 field goal attempts and made 74.5 percent of his free throw attempts.<br /><br />Iguodala also improved his assist percentage dramatically, going from a 23.6 assist percentage in his first 25 games to a 28.3 assist percentage in his next 20 games. His turnover percentage also increased, from 11.8 percent to 12.4 percent, but that increase was trumped by his superior assist percentage improvement, indicating he has been a much better distributor of the ball lately.<br /><br />Now, including the three games since the trade deadline, Iguodala has contributed 0.142 win shares per 48 minutes. If he is able to keep that up, it will be his best season since his 2007-08 one in that regard, and with Iguodala once again playing basketball very near the highest level he is able, it is no wonder the 76ers did not pull the trigger on a trade.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21589563.post-53325448316214641792011-03-01T09:40:00.004-05:002011-03-01T10:52:51.562-05:00Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets Trade Recap: The Suns Will Get More Value Out Of Aaron BrooksWhen the Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets swapped underachieving point guards Goran Dragic and Aaron Brooks, each team was hoping that the point guard they received would return to an improved shooting form of a previous season. Unfortunately for the Houston Rockets, they are unlikely to actually see Dragic improve his shooting percentages while Aaron Brooks, playing for the Phoenix Suns, is a sure bet to return to his former shooting prowess.<br /><br />The reason for the prediction that Brooks is the more likely candidate to shoot better for the rest of the season is simple. His shooting performances in his 34 games with the Rockets before being traded to the Suns were very uncharacteristic of him and unlike his shooting in any other season.<br /><br />In his 34 games for the Rockets, Brooks posted a 40.8 effective field goal percentage and 46.5 true shooting percentage. During his other seasons, Brooks posted a 49.3 effective field goal percentage and 53.5 true shooting percentage in 2007-08, a 47.6 effective field goal percentage and 52.1 true shooting percentage in 2008-09, and a 51.1 effective field goal percentage and 54.9 true shooting percentage.<br /><br />Brooks' shooting this season for the Rockets had been so dissimilar to his others that both his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentages were statistically significantly inferior to his shooting statistics last season and were not far off from being statistically significantly inferior to his first two seasons in the NBA.<br /><br />Since Brooks has 213 games of adequate shooting and only 34 games of poor shooting, considering the sample sizes of the two data sets, the 213 games are more representative of his true shooting ability. Therefore, the Suns can expect him to improve in that department and post a true shooting percentage around 53.0 percent for them going forward.<br /><br />Meanwhile, in the case of Dragic, it is not this season we should be looking at as not correctly stating his ability as a shooter. In his 48 games with the Suns this year, Dragic had a 46.5 effective field goal percentage and 49.2 true shooting percentage.<br /><br />Those shooting percentages have a lot more in common with his rookie 2008-09 season where he had a 43.8 effective field goal percentage and 48.7 true shooting percentage than they do with last season's 52.7 effective field goal percentage and 56.6 true shooting percentage. <br /><br />In fact, Dragic's true shooting percentage with the Suns this season is statistically significantly worse than his last season mark and his effective field goal percentage is right on the cusp of being statistically significantly worse, meaning it is last season of which we should be skeptical when judging Dragic's shooting ability.<br /><br />The difference between the two data sets, 103 games of poor shooting and 80 games of great shooting, is not as stark as the difference for Brooks' data sets, but Dragic does have more of a history of being a bad shooter. It is his impressive shooting from last year that is the statistical outlier so the Rockets should not expect him to reach those kinds of shooting heights again. They should just prepare themselves to experience a continuation of his season's poor shooting under their watch.<br /><br />Even if neither point guard's shooting improves with his new team, Brooks will still give the Suns more value than Dragic because he is a better ballhandler. His assist percentage to turnover percentage ratio is vastly superior to Dragic's so he does not have to rely on his shooting as much to be a good point guard.<br /><br />It is a good thing for the Rockets that the Suns had to send a lottery-projected first-round draft pick along with Dragic since it is incredibly unlikely the Rockets will see the Dragic of last season.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Begin: AdBrite -->
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<!-- End: AdBrite --></div>Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13813682582991499402noreply@blogger.com0