Public Thinks It's Figured This Kentucky Derby Out

by Jeremy Plonk

April 9, 2018

The battle lines look pretty defined in this year’s Kentucky Derby lineup in terms of the haves and have nots. The top of the crop can be debated based on your personal preferences and observations. But there’s a very distinct line at some point. And that point is six.

Look at nearly any Top-10 or 20 list and analysts have a consistent agreement who belongs near the top. But more importantly, the closing odds in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager on Sunday showed that the public absolutely knows where to draw that line.

The haves are clear: Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon, Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro. That list doesn’t figure to increase after the Arkansas Derby, though could lessen by one if Magnum Moon regresses. At most, it’s six, and its minimum is five.

Look at the KDFW odds on the top 6 with nearly $340,000 in real wagering as the balloting:

#12 Justify (3-1, $8.40)

#15 Mendelssohn (5-1, $12.60)

#1 Audible (7-1, $16.60)

#14 Magnum Moon (8-1, $19.80)

#8 Good Magic (9-1, $20.60)

#2 Bolt d'Oro (9-1, $21)

There are 6 single-digit propositions nearly a month out from the Kentucky Derby and the next-closest pari-mutuel pursuer is Florida Derby late bloomer Hofburg all the way up at 22-1 odds. The public already has just blown past the medium-range horses in that 10-1 to 19-1 range. And consider this was with 24 wagering interests, not 20. A shortening of the field may even intensify the focus on the 6 fancied runners.

The last 2 Derby races had 6 horses total in single-digit odds between them, 4 last year and just 2 the previous year when Nyquist was solidly favored. There were 10 horses combined those 2 years in that 10-1 to 19-1 range that’s visibly missing from the final KDFW pool.

This seems certainly like a year between the haves and the have nots in the public discussion and ever-growing world of racing punditry. And the bettors seemed to agree with that sentiment nearly 340,000 times over this past weekend.

Now let’s see if that confidence wanes over the next 3-4 weeks, or if the longshot lookers give into their temptations by the first Saturday in May and pound down some of those 30-1 and 50-1 shots like we’ve seen in the past. Quite possibly this is the effect of 5 straight winning favorites in the Kentucky Derby, something we haven’t seen in over a century.

Might the public have become too enamored with its ability to be right?

3.26.2018

College basketball’s Final Four field is set with Loyola-Chicago, Michigan, Villanova and Kansas. If the Kentucky Derby were run today, who would be your Final Four?
Superfecta players know that’s where the big bucks are on the first Saturday in May. The average super has returned more than $80k in its 21 years offered, including a high of more than $800k in 2005. So, if you’re putting together such a ticket, figuring out who will round out the four slots can be a crapshoot. Ironically this year’s March Madness looks a lot like what you should be looking for the first Saturday in May.
Truth be told, 75% of superfecta slots in the Kentucky Derby the last 5 years have been filled out by horses 10-1 or less on the toteboard. So you’re only looking for one price, and three horses that are somewhat logical, especially considering favorites have won each of those 5 in succession.
Loyola-Chicago is your longshot. And superfecta players know you need a price. They got hot at the right time in the NCAAs, didn’t come from the most likely side of the tracks, and had a lot of great karma in their camp. Who can root against Sister Jean at age 98, right?
Michigan made a lot of sense, a consistent performer from a good region in the Big Ten. These are the kind that are respected; no one is surprised to see them there, but they aren’t necessarily prime favorites going in.
Villanova and Kansas were the real talents. They just needed to run their race and let it take care of itself. They ran the table and are the favorites.
Lone Sailor may be your Loyola-Chicago this year with karma for the Benson family after the passing of patriarch Tom Benson, and from a respected regional outfit like Tom Amoss and running the best race of his career heading into the big dance with his Louisiana Derby runner-up. I also like some horses like Machismo in this role as a lower-seeded team, though he’s come out of a power conference at Gulfstream this winter for lesser-acclaimed connections. He’ll need a Cinderella finish in his final prep to go dancing, as they say, but the stories of karma have yet to surface.
Who plays the Michigan hand as the steady player from a respected position is a pretty open book. This could be Good Magic if he runs good, not great, in the Blue Grass and maintains respect without loading up his bandwagon. Enticed also fits here, unlikely to do enough in the Wood Memorial to be among the top 3-4 Derby choices at post time, but with plenty of respect. You could see Solomini in here with a solid try in the Wood as well. The same goes for Instilled Regard, whom even with a Santa Anita Derby upset likely gets no closer than third choice.
The favorites’ roles are still TBD with the final round of preps, starting with Audible’s (pictured) audition in Saturday’s Xpressbet Florida Derby. Obviously Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie from California fit the playbill there coming out of the Santa Anita Derby in 2 weeks. Perhaps even Justify from the Arkansas Derby in 3 as a red-hot, top-seed.
By this time next week, the Final Four will be all sorted out on the hardwood. But for us horseplayers, it will be just beginning to take shape toward the first Saturday in May.