Less than six months ago, many political insiders were predicting Democrats would almost certainly take control of the U.S. House and even had the opportunity to take over the U.S. Senate.

Now, many of these same prognosticators are changing their tune as prospects improve for Republicans. The change didn’t happen overnight, but a clear trend has emerged since Republicans passed their signature piece of legislation, tax reform. And just as fortunes have improved for Republicans, history proves they can just as easily be reversed.

Since Republicans passed tax reform on December 20, 2017, all the key metrics for the party in power have vastly improved. According to political poll aggregator, RealClearPolitics, Trump’s average approval rating has increased a net nine points.

In the same period, the generic congressional ballot average, a measure of which party voters want to represent them in Congress, has moved from Democrats having a 13 point advantage to Democrats having just a three point advantage. This marks the highest point for Republicans and lowest point for Democrats for the 2018 election cycle.

And, voters are more optimistic about the direction of the country with 39{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} saying the country is headed in the right direction, the highest level in nearly a decade and a net improvement of 13 points.

While the political landscape has moved more favorably towards Republicans, voter sentiment of the Republican passed tax reform legislation has improved as well. When first passed, 30{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approved and 51{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapproved of the legislation. Now, 37{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} approve and 43{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapprove, a net 15 point improvement.

To put tax reform’s approval in perspective, let’s compare to the Democrat’s signature piece of legislation, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was signed into law on March 23, 2010. On the day the Affordable Care Act was signed into law, 40{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} of Americans approved and 50{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} disapproved and the numbers remained static throughout the 2010 election.

In fact, it wasn’t until July 10, 2012, fully two years after the ACA was signed into law that it reached a net -6 approval that tax reform currently has. But the ebb and flow of ACA approval should serve as a cautionary sign for Republicans to not rest on their laurels. Although it took seven years, a plurality of voters now approve of the program.

Assessing voter approval of tax reform, a full 20{09f965da52dc6ab4c1643a77bd40d1f729d807040cd8db540234bb981a782222} have yet to make up their mind on the reform package. That leaves a big opportunity for both parties as they seek to define it. Millions will be spent in the upcoming election on whether the reform package is a tax cut for all Americans or a giveaway to the wealthy and corporate interests. Whoever prevails may be the one holding the keys to the House when the dust settles.

Public Opinion Strategies helped us to clarify what we wanted to learn and then conducted research and analysis that shed light even beyond the questions we set out to ask. They were very receptive to our suggestions, responsive to our queries, and flexible when we needed them to be.

Public Opinion Strategies has consistently offered unparalleled advice and spot-on polling that has shaped how and where we spent money and deploy key resources. Additionally, they have always been an excellent steward of limited campaign resources, ensuring we spend wisely and not a dollar more than necessary in order to get the information we need.

Robert Blizzard and Public Opinion Strategies did a great job for us throughout our successful campaign for Congress. Robert gave us accurate data, spot on analysis, and professional advice, all of which were essential to our victory.

Public Opinion Strategies is one of our go-to pollsters when it comes to testing public support for bond ballot measures and other initiative proposals. They are available to provide ongoing consultation with regard to crafting of ballot questions, public outreach messaging, and related efforts.

ACLI has worked with Public Opinion Strategies for decades, through several tough industry battles—often ones in which public opinion does not naturally fall on the side of insurers. Yet Bill and his team consistently provide invaluable strategic advice by refining our messages and helping us frame our issues in a way that makes them understandable and persuasive.

The data from Public Opinion Strategies provided important insight and informed our public awareness campaign. We sincerely appreciate their professionalism and expertise in this arena.

Nicole McCleskey and the team at Public Opinion Strategies have been invaluable to me, both during my campaigns and as Governor of the State of New Mexico. It’s not just the accuracy of their numbers, but guiding the overall strategy that makes them so valuable.

Public Opinion Strategies has been a part of our team in Missouri for more than a decade. With their data and guidance, Republicans here were able to attain a majority in the House in 2002 for the first time in fifty years, and we have been able to grow that majority to the point that we now have a record, veto-proof majority.

In my tenure at two leading business associations, facing huge and complex consumer issues, I have benefitted enormously from the objective advisory skills of Bill and his team. They do their homework, they are rigorous, dispassionate and thoughtful. Turning questions into answers is a clever tag, but it’s also an apt description of the professional talents of the firm.

I consider Public Opinion Strategies to be a part of our team. That is the way we have always worked. They have helped us to understand our needs and fashioned research solutions to meet those needs. They have helped us to meet killer deadlines by being flexible, executing rapidly, and insuring quality. Teamwork is the best way to describe it.

Accuracy, speed, and deep knowledge of key issues and public sentiment are the hallmarks of quality opinion research, and on these measures Public Opinion Strategies consistently delivers. I have had the pleasure of working with Public Opinion Strategies for more than 15 years on dozens of issues, and they are undoubtedly the gold standard.

Public Opinion Strategies’ track record of success and wealth of experience in political campaigns and issue advocacy are why they are one of the most trusted and well respected public opinion firms in Washington, D.C. Their insights and perspectives have helped to inform a wide array of public affairs activities across multiple industries.