Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords, and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009. He is currently Dean of the … read more

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Christopher R. Hill says, although Trump has vowed "to look inward, focusing on domestic policy and putting America first in foreign policy," he won't "be able to avoid playing a role in the Middle East." The author hopes it will be "a constructive one." Hardly! Given the bunch of highly controversial figures Trump surrounds himself with, many Americans are worried, because he is impetuous and ignorant in foreign policy. Unfortunately many Republicans who are known for their competence and integrity had refused to work for him. Critics fear that America's relationship with the Muslim world could deteriorate under Trump. To start with he has Stephen Bannon, a white supremacist, as chief strategist. A firebrand conservative, Bannon is known for promoting extreme, xenophobic views in his media outlet, the Breitbart News - the leading mouthpiece of a far-right, anti-establishment movement.Michael Flynn was Trump's main national security adviser during the campaign and has accepted an offer to stay on in the same role in Trump's cabinet. He enjoys support among veterans, and was director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the US military spy agency, from 2012-14. He said he was fired, because of his views on radical Islam. He criticises the Obama administration and believes the US is losing a global war against Islamist extremism that may last for generations. He may be smart, but seen as a poor manager.Flynn and Trump share many views, like calling the 2003 invasion of Iraq a disaster. Both see advantages of closer ties with Russia, scraping the nuclear deal with Iran and fighting ISIS. Some have expressed concern about an impulsive adviser wielding over an impulsive president, with little knowledge and experience in international affairs.James Mattis, a retired general, has been named as Trump's secretary of defence. He, a counterinsurgency expect, had served in the Marine Corps for 44 years, fighting during the first Gulf war in 1991. He led a task force in Afghanistan in 2001 and a Marine division in Iraq in 2003, playing a key role in fighting in Falluja in 2004. A counterinsurgency manual he co-authored was credited for easing sectarian violence in Iraq before the US withdrawal in December 2011. It's unclear whether this would work this time. Though dubbed "Mad Dog", Mattis is revered for his candour and leadership, and known for his uncompromising approach to America's enemies. He was head of US Central Command (Centcom), the American military's wing in charge of all its Middle East forces, and an outspoken critic of the Obama administration's Middle East policy, specifically its views on Iran - "the single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East". What might appease the Europeans is that Matthis had also been head of US Joint Forces Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander. He might persuade Trump not to give up on the military alliance. Mattis, who has only been retired for three years, will require a formal waiver from the Republican-controlled Congress to take up the role. Mike Pompeo, known for Islamophobia, is Trump's new CIA director. The hardline Republican Congressman is a member of the Tea Party, and a vehement critic of the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran. He also defends the National Security Agency's bulk data trawling programme, opposes shutting the detention camp at Guantanamo Bay and abandoning torture. As a member of the House Select Benghazi Committee, a special panel created in 2014 to investigate the deadly attack in 2012 on a US diplomatic compound in Libya, he was among those who led a witch-hunt against Hillary Clinton. Trump has no clue about how to deal with Pakistan, as his recent phone-call with Nawaz Sharif shows. As he admires strongmen, he, Egypt's Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan might gang up against Iran. Indeed, with Trump's cabinet in place, there is fear that peace in the Middle East may just be a distant prospect. Read more

I see the author conveniently ignored mentioning Libya thought recent intelligence revealed that ISIS is regrouping in Libya. Egypt is an autocratic state and the US must come to terms with that. I hope the Trump administration may offer some immediate help to the Tunisians to help built their fledging democracy. For the Iran nuclear deal, there's no sense trying to block that deal that it too about 5 Countries many years to negotiate, I think Trump is not that foolish. Finally, on the repeal of the TTPP, I guess the "establishment" and business moguls are reeling in shock at the huge profits that just slip through their hands. I'm in Africa and I'm waiting to see Trump plans for Africa and specifically my country Ghana. But who knows, Trump May end up been a one term President since he has started taking decisions against the "establishment" and believe you me, they'll fight back. Read more

Ok. Some tortured logic in this article, as usual, to avoid recognizing the role US policy makers such as the author had in creating the present situation. Not much point speculating about what the Trump administration may or may not do.

Most likely, however, is a return of Bush-style neo-con policy in the middle east, after 8 years of neo-con lite under Obama (wherein consequences of the Syria disaster fell almost entirely on the EU, which is now disintegrating).

I suspect TPP will return as well, perhaps with some rebranding (wrapped in a flag etc). Read more

Not really clear what the author is suggesting the US do with Egypt. At a minimum, Trump would reverse Obama's bad blood with Sisi, since I doubt Trump is angry that Sisi got rid of the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump said he would be "pro" any country that is pro-USA. In the ME this boils down to citizens and government of Israel, the ruling government of Egypt, and the King of Jordan. Read more

Trump needs to simply let the rest of world deal with the chaos in the middle-east. At the core the problems were created by the British and French to control the oil, and it should be up to them to deal with it. Trump needs to clarify to all the middle-east players that the USA is out of the ME and they can continue on killing each other without waiting for the American policeman to come in and break it up. Read more

Ramez, my comment was that the US should stop trying to change the ME through military intervention. The US should have friendly relations with all countries in the ME that want friendly relations with the US, which includes Israel. Read more

A vision of hope:The middle east maybe could make a huge developmental step forward if it manages to keep subgroup liberation mutually fair and to compensate those who were damaged in the many processes. Then, in theory, the period of subgroup liberation will lead to liberated and bored people, who are willing to attempt seemingly best for all. This then as well global movement could lead to a vastly improved sense of "all" and many associated benefits, again on all social scales.

This is fantasy, but based on a theory which is outlined in my account's biography. Read more

Nicholas cage in the film God of War said they, Arabs were killing themselves in the desert with swords a hundred years ago, and in another 100 years they will be killing each other with guns. (paraphrase). Read more

PS On Air: The Super Germ Threat

NOV 2, 2016

In the latest edition of PS On
Air
, Jim O’Neill discusses how to beat antimicrobial resistance, which
threatens millions of lives, with Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky
and Leonardo Maisano of
Il Sole 24 Ore.

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