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Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

Originally Posted by Redsfaithful

Who was that that scored more than 30?

That was the Bengals. And the Steelers are one of only two teams Palmer put up a sub-55.0 QB rating. Seems to me that if you're expecting Pitt to give up 30 to the Bengals based on one game, you've just made a case for a similar reasonable expectation that they could have made Palmer look as bad as last time they visited.

You lost a lot of credibility by saying that Palmer couldn't have put up as good of a game as Ben.

No one put up as good a game last weekend as did Roethlisberger. Guy finished with a passer rating of 148.7 against Cincy on Sunday. The only way you get better than that is to have a PERFECT day. That's a day Palmer has never had. Yet, you're expecting that he'd have done it on Sunday in his first ever playoff game.

That's a joke, there's no comparison between the two. If Roethlisberger was anywhere near as good as Palmer then the Steelers wouldn't mind him throwing a little more. As it is they gameplan to make it so that he doesn't have to expose himself by throwing more than 20 times a game.

Wow do you misunderstand the Quarterback position. Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger are as near performance clones as two QB's get. I would be stupid to denigrate either as being anything but top-tier NFL Quarterbacks.

Palmer gets more opps because he plays under a different scheme with a defense that's apt to hand the ball back to the offense quickly and requires said offense to score a ton of points.

Roethlisberger isn't protected from being "exposed". In fact, you've got it completely backwards. Pittsburgh's offensive gameplan DEMANDS that he'd be exposed consistently if that were possible. You simply cannot dedicate yourself to the run with those backs unless you've got a guy at QB who can efficiently and effectively chew up yardage consistently. You've got a lot to learn if you think that Ben Roethlisberger is some kind of dink-and-dunk Trent Dilfer or Kordell Stewart type who needs "protection".

Palmer gets more opportunities because the Bengals defense can't stop anyone. Quite often they have to play a shootout style to overcome that deficiency. Roethlisberger gets fewer because Pitt plays a different style of offense- but a style that demands more efficient QB play in fewer opportunities. And it ain't like personnel has nothing to do with it either. Gee...would I rather consistently air it out to the Bengals receiving corps or the Steelers receiving corps? Hmn...now that's a toughie. Might want to let me think on that one a little bit. Flip-flop those two QB's and what do you get? Same results, but then you'd be talking about how the Steelers are "protecting" Palmer.

Freakin' 23 year old kid LED the NFL in % of 20+ Yard Completions (20.8% vs. total Completions) while finishing with a 62.7% Completion rate and an INT rate of 3.4%. Can you name the only other QB this century who's chewed up yardage that efficiently? I'll give you two hints. His last name is "Manning" and his first name ain't "Eli". It doesn't matter how many throws it take a QB to get the job done. You simply need to stop confusing "opportunity" with "ability". Football doesn't work like that because not every team plays it the exact same way nor do they need to. Just because someone gets to do something more often, that doesn't mean he's actually better at it than the next guy.

Roethlisberger is consistently called on to make plays in the intermediate+ distances on the field with a receiving corps of Hines Ward and...um...yeah. Hines Ward. And he does it. Consistently. With precision. This season. With a bum thumb and aching knees. Sunday was his third career game with a rating of 148.0 or higher. Roethlisberger smacked the Bengals defense upside the head with as near a perfect performance as a QB could have on Sunday and you don't even know it happened because all you can do is focus on the perfect game you assume Palmer would obviously have had even though he's never had one in his NFL life.

We'll see this weekend how he does when he's the focus of the offense. It's not going to be pretty.

Yeah? Well, Indy is a dramatically better football team than the Bengals and I figured that the Bengals game was a coin-flip for Pittsburgh. I expect them to lose to Indy, but I'm real happy that they'll be playing Indy rather than sitting at home.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

Originally Posted by SteelSD

No, I did get it. I'm just saying that I don't see a 40% probability swing like that resting on the shoulders of just one player or position in this particular situation. If that's the case, then it's a fundamentally flawed team.

They are a fundamentally flawed team, just look at that crappy defense. I do see a 40% swing.

Do I believe that the probabilities were altered when Kitna took the helm? Sure. But to go from a coin flip to nearly a zero percent chance to win that game? I don't see that and I sure didn't see that when the Bengals took a 3 point lead into halftime and then summarily drove down the field for what should have been a Field Goal.

I'd have had my wallet out at that point and bet you straight up they would lost the game, and I've been a lifelong Bengals fan.

The Bengals should have- without any help whatesoever from anyone or anything- scored 20 points. Have even a decent defense and that should be enough to win you a playoff football game.

Well, they don't have anything resembling a decent defense. Thats the crux of the argument why a guy like Palmer is so valuable. He keeps the chains and the clock rolling and keeps the ball out of the opponents hands, keeping his defense off the field. Palmer was our defensive player of the year IMO.

But then we'd need to disregard an additional mitigating factor. That wasn't just any game. That was the kid's first playoff game ever. Palmer came into that game after sitting for the majority of the KC debacle and played his worst stretch of football in 2005 the three games prior. Got a little pick-happy during that stretch. Now, the nice thing is that Palmer's bad stretches tend to be better than your average QB. But his most recent performance certainly wasn't midseason Carson Palmer form.

Well, you do have that. The closest thing we can look back on is probably the game at PIT for a similar pressure scenario.

And when we're talking about what Palmer's most likely to do in a a single game, we're talking about a small sample size anyway.

Yep

Carson Palmer is an excellent QB. But we're still at the point where we'd be expecting his absolute best in a pressurecooker environment against a team that's made him look bad once this season.

I don't see it that way. He'd just have to play pretty much the same he had all season, IMO.

I'm just saying that he can look bad. Would he have more probably looked good? Yeah. Ben Roethisberger good? No. And that's pretty much what he'd have had to do to affect the score by 17 points.

IMO he is more valuable than Rothlisberger. They have pretty much the same rate stats, but Palmer has the counting stats on top of it. That is no small feat in my book, many guys can mind the store, but few can run the whole business at the same level. Having seen Ben in college and at PIT, I don't doubt that he could duplicate what Palmer did this season, but he hasn't done it yet either.

The Bengals had two 10 point leads and let Pitt back into the game both times. They had a shot at turning a three-point lead into six and screwed that up as well. Along the way, the Defense allowed Pittsburgh to hit all sorts of huge plays.

You keep making my point for me. The defense is terrible. They can't stop anyone. Again, this is what made Palmer so valuable this season, he was able to score and often times keep the ball out of the other teams hand so that the defense wasn't nearly as exposed.

And that is the crux of the disagreement. For a QB to have that large an effect on the game, we'd have to expect him to be perfect. That's what I feel is the unreasonable expectation here.

Well, we disagree on all counts then.

I'm just saying that I don't think it's right, given the amount of talent offensively, that the Bengals were so severely hamstrung without Carson Palmer that they should have had virtually no shot of winning that game with Kitna at the helm.

Then you haven't seen enough of Palmer and Kitna.

Don't get me wrong- I know about performance dropoffs that are far more severe (Ben to Maddox) than a Palmer-to-Kitna switcheroo. But really, the main idea I took exception to was the opinion (not yours) that the game would have been a "rout" with Palmer, but ended up as a 14-point loss without him.

You have a more severe talent loss from Ben to Maddox than you do from Palmer to Kitna. However, the Bengals utilize and rely on that resource much more than the Steelers do. Net loss would be worse for the Bengals IMO.

No QB in the world is reasonably worth that kind of point spread over a single half of a football game. Well, except maybe Frank Reich. Once.

Well, I don't agree its a 17 point spread that had to be made up, and it wasn't for a 1/2 of football, it was for the entire game.

It was a 14 pt spread, which is one more Bengal TD and 1 less PIT TD. Given the 4 sacks, 2 picks, etc. I don't think its unreasonable in the least.

Look, I didn't think it was the Bengals year before Palmer went down. I was plenty pleased with the season already. I don't know if the Bengals would have won or not, however, IMO the Bengals took a SEVERE loss that fundamentally altered there probability of winning the game.

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

The rehab of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer got a swift boost Tuesday when reconstructive knee surgery revealed not as much damage to the left knee as originally feared. A source close to Palmer said there was no dislocation and Dr. Lonnie Paulos had to deal mainly with the tear of the anterior cruciate ligament during the procedure at the Houston Medical Center.

"It went very well down there," the source said.

Palmer plans to start his rehab Thursday at the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopedic Center near his home in Orange County in California.

Both the Bengals and Palmer agreed to use the independent Paulous, 56, a leading orthopedic surgeon based in Houston. Paulos, a graduate of the University of Utah Medical School, once did a fellowship at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center. According to internet reports, he has also served in leadership positions of such groups as the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons and the American Orthopedic Society of Sports Medicine.

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

Originally Posted by gonelong

IMO he is more valuable than Rothlisberger. They have pretty much the same rate stats, but Palmer has the counting stats on top of it. That is no small feat in my book, many guys can mind the store, but few can run the whole business at the same level. Having seen Ben in college and at PIT, I don't doubt that he could duplicate what Palmer did this season, but he hasn't done it yet either.

Hasn't had the opportunity yet. That's a very important distinction. At a younger age, Roethisberger has accomplished historic things, but I fail to see the need to try to play the placement game with two of the top five QB's in the NFL.

You keep making my point for me. The defense is terrible. They can't stop anyone. Again, this is what made Palmer so valuable this season, he was able to score and often times keep the ball out of the other teams hand so that the defense wasn't nearly as exposed.

And, again, the quality of the replacement is important. Kitna's not a replacement-level backup. Far from it.

Then you haven't seen enough of Palmer and Kitna.

Yeah. I actually have. Kitna was the starting QB for my fantasy league team two years ago (and CJ was my #1 wideout). I got REALLY familiar with Kitna. Played really well. Didn't lose the job by any fault of his own. Probably be starting somewhere next season.

You have a more severe talent loss from Ben to Maddox than you do from Palmer to Kitna. However, the Bengals utilize and rely on that resource much more than the Steelers do. Net loss would be worse for the Bengals IMO.

Then you haven't seen Maddox play enough recently. Go find a game tape of the Jax game. It's the difference between replacing a great starting QB (Palmer) with a QB who's a viable starter on any number of NFL teams (Kitna) versus a below-replacement level pud who's capable of literally handing games to opposing football teams (Maddox). You can't find a more severe dropoff than Ben to Maddox in football. At any position.

Well, I don't agree its a 17 point spread that had to be made up, and it wasn't for a 1/2 of football, it was for the entire game.

It was a 14 pt spread, which is one more Bengal TD and 1 less PIT TD. Given the 4 sacks, 2 picks, etc. I don't think its unreasonable in the least.

Yes, I know you'd like to take Pitt points off the board. I'm curious though- Pitt scored 31 points the last time WITH Palmer at the helm for Cinci so why again wouldn't Pitt score 31 on Sunday? You be doin' some fuzzy math there, my man. Hmn...Palmer in...Kitna out...minus 7...plus 7...carry the three...two point conversion...Bengals WIN!

The Bengals needed 17 points to win that game. Unless you figure that they had a great shot of not botching five more field goals in the second half. Or unless you reckon that Marv would have gone for a two-point conversion when down by one.

You'd also be assuming that Palmer didn't get sacked and wouldn't be picked. Again, I'm not even going to consider any argument that includes the concept that Palmer would have made no mistakes whatsoever. Yet, it consistently pops up post after post. Please make it stop.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

Unless you figure that they had a great shot of not botching five more field goals in the second half.

I guess this is the crux of the argument. The Bengals didn't score any points in the second half, and really only came close to scoring once on the botched field goal. I don't think that would have happened with Palmer in. Would Palmer have managed to score 14+ points in the second half? Yeah, I think he probably could have managed that. You disagree, and of course we'll never know.

It's a shame the game couldn't have been played straight up. If the Bengals had lost with Palmer then this wouldn't be quite as tough to take.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
--Oscar Wilde

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

January 11, 2006
Cowher: I Finally Figured Out How to Win A Road Playoff Game

By Jack Ripper

Entering this year's playoffs, which saw the Steelers just barely get in, Pittsburgh Steelers coach Bill Cowher was 0-3 as a coach when playing on the road in the NFL playoffs. That record is now 1-3 after Cowher and his defensive unit figured out their best shot at winning on the road during the playoffs. Going into last week's game, the Steelers staff knew that Carson Palmer could single-handily beat them. He had already done it once this year and that one game almost cost the Steelers a trip to this year's playoffs.

The saying all week in the Pittsburgh lockerroom and on the practice field was "we cannot beat him, so we must hurt him". Inside sources close to the team have claimed that Dick LeBeau, former Bengals coach, offered $10,000 to the man who made the saying a reality. The same sources have told me that Kimo has already ordered a new 6-person hottub for his back porch and a 60" HDTV for his living room.

Another inside source close to the team has taken a picture of a poster that hangs in the Steelers defensive meeting room. The picture is seen below.

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Hasn't had the opportunity yet. That's a very important distinction. At a younger age, Roethisberger has accomplished historic things, but I fail to see the need to try to play the placement game with two of the top five QB's in the NFL.

Agreed, as I stated.

And, again, the quality of the replacement is important. Kitna's not a replacement-level backup. Far from it.

No, but that doesn't make him a good quarterback either.

Yeah. I actually have. Kitna was the starting QB for my fantasy league team two years ago (and CJ was my #1 wideout). I got REALLY familiar with Kitna. Played really well. Didn't lose the job by any fault of his own. Probably be starting somewhere next season.

Kitna isn't horrible by any stretch, but what you get with Kitna, is time and time again, costly interceptions, too many sacks, and he simply drops the ball all too often. He probably will be starting somewhere next season, but that speaks to the lack of good QBs in the league at this point.

Then you haven't seen Maddox play enough recently. Go find a game tape of the Jax game. It's the difference between replacing a great starting QB (Palmer) with a QB who's a viable starter on any number of NFL teams (Kitna) versus a below-replacement level pud who's capable of literally handing games to opposing football teams (Maddox). You can't find a more severe dropoff than Ben to Maddox in football. At any position.

Maddox had a better year than Kitna this year. That said, I would take Kitna over Maddox, no doubt. What I am saying is that you are replacing 20 tosses a game in PIT vs. 35+ a game in Cincy.

Yes, I know you'd like to take Pitt points off the board. I'm curious though- Pitt scored 31 points the last time WITH Palmer at the helm for Cinci so why again wouldn't Pitt score 31 on Sunday? You be doin' some fuzzy math there, my man. Hmn...Palmer in...Kitna out...minus 7...plus 7...carry the three...two point conversion...Bengals WIN!

Heck, I'll make it easy. If the Steelers have 2 or 3 less possesions in a game (any game), how many points less would you expect them to score?

The Bengals needed 17 points to win that game. Unless you figure that they had a great shot of not botching five more field goals in the second half. Or unless you reckon that Marv would have gone for a two-point conversion when down by one.

See above.

You'd also be assuming that Palmer didn't get sacked and wouldn't be picked. Again, I'm not even going to consider any argument that includes the concept that Palmer would have made no mistakes whatsoever. Yet, it consistently pops up post after post. Please make it stop.

I never made that assumption and posted to the effect. It'll stop, you aren't bothering to read what I have written anyway and the point is moot, the game is over.

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

Let it go? Sorry, but 15 years of HADES will make a fan like this. Buffalo does not understand the 15-year thing.... at least not in modern times.

15 YEARS. 15 YEARS. That is a long time. And to have your hopes (after 15 YEARS) dashed on one "questionable hit" (make no mistake, that hit can be questioned), I believe people have a right to voice displeasure in the week after.

If you are Bengals fan who does not think about that one play this week, then you a very-very casual fan and probably checked in on that game last Sunday between doing housework and other more important things.

It is nice to have a place to discuss it and see the perspective of a Steelers fan like Steel. If you do not like it or think it is killing bandwidth, then quit clicking on the post. Sounds simplistic enough to me.

Re: Carson Palmer signs Extension

All I am saying is hearing peopl in this town still bemoan "Wide RIght" and "No Goal" YEARS after the fact, well it just ain't worth it.

My first sports disappointment of major quality was the Tigers losing to the A's in the 72 Playoffs, devistating.... I still hate the A's... next the 10-10 tie between UM and OSU in 1973 with UM getting locked out of the Bowl picture.

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