Prospectus Hit List

Opening Day Edition

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The Prospectus Hit List is back for its fifth season, and we at BP are determined to put our best foot forward when it comes to predicting the 2009 season, and the foundation of our predictions is PECOTA. Once we've taken the basic weighted mean projections, our staff adjusts for expected playing time, strength of schedule, reliever leverage, and team defense to generate the Projected Standings, which have been updated daily throughout the spring based upon the latest news and analysis. The Hit List Factors below are the Pythagenpat winning percentages derived from the latest runs scored and runs allowed projections, which are included in parentheses at the end of each team capsule. As you quibble with the rankings-I certainly have-remember that projections are not destiny; they're a shorthand for a wider range of probabilities centered around the stated won-loss records. We're proud of our system's track record, but we're just as eager to put the theoretical behind us and watch the season unfold. With that said, let's play ball!

8

Coming off their lowest win total since 1990, the Braves added the winter's second-best pitching tandem in Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Between that, the arrival of top prospects Jordan Schafer (who opens the year in center field) and Tommy Hanson (who should be up in the first half), and a lineup that boasts three hitters-Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Kelly Johnson-who forecast to be either the most or second-most productive players at their positions, the Braves should force their way back into the NL East picture. (796 RS/738 RA)

9

The defending World Champions have a tough act to follow, particularly given the likelihood of Cole Hamels falling far short of last year's 227 innings, and of bullpen studs Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson regressing as well. The Raul Ibanez-for-Pat Burrell "swap" is a step in the wrong direction, but a healthy Chase Utley amid an imposing lineup should give the division's pitchers nightmares once again. (828 RS/770 RA)

10

Will their up-and-down pattern continue? Since 2001, the Indians have averaged 78 wins per year in the even-numbered years and 87 wins in the odd-numbered ones. A similar showing could capture this year's tightly packed division, but the Tribe needs strong rebounds from Fausto Carmona, Travis Hafner, and Victor Martinez, while Cliff Lee, Kelly Shoppach, and Shin-Soo Choo show that last year wasn't a fluke. Skepticism over all of those wishes coming true isn't unwarranted. (818 RS/774 RA)

12

After tasting Oktoberfest suds for the first time in 26 years, the Brewers kept their mugs on the table as CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets departed. A healthy Yovani Gallardo should help offset that loss, though he'll be capped around 150 innings, and Braden Looper, their most prominent off-season acquisition (!), is nobody to pick up that slack. Nonetheless, with six productive regulars between the ages of 25 and 29, the Crew retain a respectable outside shot at the Wild Card, if not the division. (778 RS/754 RA)

13

Having averaged a mere 82.3 wins per year over the past three, the Cards once again get a forecast as a middle-of-the-pack team despite Chris Carpenter's return, Colby Rasmus' arrival, and the continuing excellence of Albert Pujols (projected weighted mean WARP: 9.7). The pitch-to-contact staff will need plenty of Dave Duncan magic to overcome a brutal defense where the shift of Skip Schumaker from the outfield to second base is hardly the only problem. (780 RS/767 RA)

17

The Mariners turn the page from the ignominy of being the first 100-loss, $100 million payroll team by importing Brewers scouting guru Jack Zduriencik to be the GM. Jack Z's stopped the hemorrhaging with a few solid moves, though the valedictory for Ken Griffey Jr. at the expense of Jeff Clement raises some eyebrows. The division's low bar means this team has an outside shot, though stripping for parts to further the rebuilding effort may be the summer's plan of action. (719 RS/754 RA)

18

Giant Mistake? The front-line starters-Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and 45-year-old free-agent Randy Johnson-can compete with anyone, and the pitching staff as a whole forecasts to be the league's second-best in run prevention despite carrying the dead weight of Barry Zito. Alas, even with full seasons of Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa, the distinctly punchless offense is slated to finish second-to-last in runs scored. Had they snatched Manny Ramirez from under the Dodgers' noses, they coulda been a contender, almost. (683 RS/717 RA)

19

Ol' Leatherpants is gone amid the taint of a Washington scandal in baseball instead of guv'ment, but not before adding Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham to the team's already absurd stockpile of outfielders. How they'll sort out the playing time, at least for the brief moment that Nick Johnson remains healthy, should be a sight to behold, but the real interest here is the arrival of 2007 second-rounder Jordan Zimmermann, at least until he's overshadowed by the pursuit of Stephen Strasburg. (780 RS/820 RA)

20

Joe Mauer's absence due to back woes should remind BBWAA voters who the real MVP of the Twins is, but with or without him the lineup forecasts to be the league's least powerful. Worse, PECOTA's skepticism about the return of Francisco Liriano to ace status, not to mention the way the staff's pitch-to-contact control freaks get things done, has the Twins projected to take nearly as steep a fall as their play-in opponents, the White Sox. (750 RS/793 RA)

21

Even more than the Orioles, the Jays are a stacked division's sitting ducks. Injuries and free agency have dispersed the impressive rotation that enabled the strongest fourth-place team of the Wild Card Era, and if that's not bad enough, even with full seasons of promising youngsters Travis Snider and Adam Lind, the offense is forecast to score the fewest runs in the league, in part because not a single regular projects to have an OBP above last year's league average. (712 RS/755 RA)

22

Unwise: Despite winning last year's AL Central title, the South Siders forecast to finish well below .500 for the second time in three years. Thanks to their ballpark, the lineup will produce plenty of pop, but the insertion of OBP-challenged DeWayne Wise and Alexei Ramirez atop the order will cost them, as will a shaky infield defense featuring the latter at shortstop. Add to that a whole lot of regression for Gavin Floyd (projected for a 5.00 ERA) and an ugly back end of the rotation, and it could be a long season on the South Side. (779 RS/829 RA)

25

The dismantling of the Pad squad amid owner John Moores' divorce proceedings hasn't been pretty. While PECOTA sees them rebounding from last year's 63-99 record, the combination of a subpar defense, Chris Young's health, and the motley assemblage of starters behind him could mean another run at 100 losses if they pull the trigger on a Jake Peavy trade. (678 RS/763 RA)

27

Losing Jeff Francis for the season is a blow, but PECOTA's extreme pessimism about this pitching staff is unwarranted-a 5.08 ERA for Aaron Cook, who hasn't been above 4.28 since 2003? A 7.01 ERA for Franklin Morales? The offense will miss Matt Holliday, but with Dexter Fowler playing his way into a homegrown up-the-middle core already featuring Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki, this team could push towards .500. (842 RS/951 RA)

28

Surprise contenders for the NL Wild Card a year ago, the Astros are poised for the largest drop-off in either league at 16 games. Some of it's simply regression from their being nine wins above their Pythagorean record, but an inflexible mid-market payroll with around 60 percent tied up in four players, the game's worst farm system, and a rotation populated with zombies like Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz has all the makings of a true disasterpiece. (707 RS/811 RA)

29

There's plenty of good stuff on the farm, but rabid Rangers fans want the future to start today, with good-glove, no-hit shortstop Elvis Andrus anchoring the turnaround of a defense that was the majors' least efficient last year. Perhaps it will, but the offense, which has OBP issues, still won't score enough to make this team competitive. (795 RS/909 RA)

30

Projected to rank 13th in the NL in scoring and 15th in runs prevented, the Pirates' 17th consecutive losing season is a foregone conclusion even if Ian Snell and Zach Duke can rediscover some semblance of the form that once made them enticing. Hope is on the horizon, with Pedro Alvarez in the system and Andrew McCutchen in Triple-A, but there are better ways to bring young talent into the system than this. (708 RS/875 RA)

The Prospectus Hit List rankings are derived from Won-Loss records and several measurements pertaining to run differentials, both actual and adjusted, from Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings through the close of play on every Sunday.

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Click here to see Jay's other articles.
You can contact Jay by clicking here

Sox CEO Larry Lucchino said on the radio this morning that he has no idea why they are opening at home either. The Sox prefer to open on the road due to the weather, and made that request to MLB. Not sure who's doing the scheduling up there, but this was a no brainer.

They always schedule this way. Seattle is at Minnesota, but shouldn't they both be hosting games right now? And if next year's weather patterns are similar to this year's, the Twins, along with several more northern or northeastern teams, should play the first ten on the road.

Just a minor note regarding the White Sox, but Ramirez isn't likely to be batting near the top of the order. Getz will bat second most of the time. Guillen has stated his preference for Ramirez to be in a "RBI spot" in the order, which currently means 8th. Of course, a mix of Wise, Brian Anderson, and Getz doesn't exactly translate into high OBP, either.

The fluidity of the projections caught up to me. I had the Astros at -18 a few days ago when I first ran the rankings, while the Angels were still lower than that. Consider them your league leaders in that ignominious category.

I find it tough believing that the Rangers are the Worst team in the AL and the second worst overall. In fact I find it incredibly pessimistic for this team. Basically its like saying they will pitch as bad as last year (when EVERY starter got hurt at one point or another) and they will hit worse than they have in a decade while still playing in a park that inflates offense by 10%. This despite major upgrades in Rightfield and first base.

Run prevention, run prevention, run prevention. PECOTA doesn't see a single Rangers' starter with an ERA below 5.00, including Padilla and Millwood.

Rangers fans have been taking issue with these projections since the beginning of the spring. I'd love to see someone share their wisdom and put their money where their mouth is by laying down some ERA and innings projections for that rotation, because I just don't see a whole lot of reason for optimism in the near term.

I'm not a Rangers' fan, but I wonder how they'd look different if the projections for Feliz and Holland weren't so pessimistic (35 innings and 45 innings of 6.5 ERAs). It's possible they're ready by midseason, and put up better ERAs than that, IMO.

outfield and infield defense will be improved in Texas ... significantly.

small sample size, but the left side of the infield saved Millwood at least 3 hits that would have been last year.

this one will be fun to revisit at year's end ... as I'm sure you'll be more than humble about eating your serving of crow

and on your A's prediction, while the offense can't get worse, I find it really odd that everyone is so bullish on Holliday. He's been fairly pedestrian on the road in the NL West the last several years, and he'll struggle to slug anything north of .500. Your optimistic prediction on the A's is another I'll enjoy revisiting by year's end. I bet they struggle out of the gate mightily and end up trading all their offensive upgrades mid year ... to end up with one of the worst records in the AL ... but I'm just a fan out here watching and your opinion is obviously more valid

Add in improved offense at third, improved offense and defense at catcher, improved offense and defense in both left and right fields. (Murphy is an improvement over Boggs, and Cruz is improvement over Murphy)

ok, this might be a team that doesn't score 900 runs. But PECOTA says they will only score 795. There is something seriously wrong with that. Heck, Chris Davis' Projection alone is pretty laughable. .253/.311/.488 This is from a guy who is a combined .302 hitter in 3 years in the minors, and hit .285 last year in the majors and is ONLY 23. In fact, PECOTA projects drop offs from EVERY Ranger starting position player.

C Saltalamacchia .253/.353/.364 to .249/.332/.4361B Davis .285/.331/.549 to .258/.311/.488
2B Kinsler .319/.375/.517 to .285/.356/.474
3B Young .284/.339/.402 to .279/.335/.395
SS Andrus ---not in majors--- (though, to be honest, his equivalents improve ever so slightly)
LF Murphy .275/.321/.465 to .259/.318/.418
CF Hamilton .304/.371/.530 to .282/.350/.479
RF Cruz .330/.421/.609 to .261/.336/.486 (ok, limited plate appearences, but his raw numbers in AAA were better and even after translation were .268/.348/.532, which are unbelievabley harsh for a AAA team)
DH Blalock .287/.338/.508 to .264/.326/.438

The closest to any kind of improvement is Saltalamacchia's slugging, predicted to improve. Young isn't predicted to decline by much. David Murphy and Hank Blalock lose most of their power. Kinsler and Hamilton decline while moving into their age 27 years. Doesn't probability say that at least SOMEONE might improve?

Nice analysis ... I struggled to temper my reaction to the initial hit list, but you are spot on. They have the Rangers pegged for decreasing production at just about every spot on the field. There's no adjustment for what I see as drastic run prevention on the defensive side of the ball, and there's no accounting for the flukish level of injury the pitching staff sustained last year.

And then on top of that, they have rosy predictions for Holliday, who has never hit well out of Coors (how is that being overlooked?) and a bunch of veteran hitters (Giambi, Cabrera, Cust and Garcy) who will mostly be moving into the most hitter unfriendly environment in the league ... as old and generally declining players ???? Add that to the fact that the outfield defense in Oakland got worse this year, not better, and with an aging Cabrera and Giambi playing at 1B, this is not a good infield either ??? And a host of injured pitchers ???

You made a comment in the Brewers article that Gallardo will likely be capped at about 150 innings. What's your source for that?

I noted that in another article today, two BP authors picked Gallardo for a top 3 NL Cy Young finish, so those authors must implicitly be assuming that he pitches enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, else he wouldn't be a compelling candidate.

Common sense and exposure to multiple projections, as opposed to any attributable source; he could go higher but I highly doubt he reaches, say, 180. He threw just 39.2 innings last year because of injury and I don't see the Brewers, who are one of the best teams at managing injury risks, pushing him terribly hard during his Age 23 season.

PECOTA's raw forecast only calls for about 115 innings, FWIW. Independent from me, Clay's got him dialed at 150 on the depth charts.

For what it is worth Will said he could likely go 200 because the injury was not arm related and I haven't heard a single mention from the Brewers that he would be limited unless he just hits a wall from fatigue.

Very interesting and logical, given Will's expertise and exposure to the Milwaukee organization. I defer to him on nearly all injury-related matters.

But if I've learned one thing in eight years of covering baseball, it's to bet the under on young pitchers with regards to workload and productivity. Even something as simple as hitting a wall from fatigue seems like a reasonably likely occurrence for a 23-year-old coming back from a season in which he hardly pitched, and the Brewers don't strike me as a team likely to go for broke if their de facto ace is in any danger.

I was struck by:Marlins apparantley suck...despite the insertion of Bonaficio at 3B (faster than Bolt) and Hanley's continued development.

Lets try a Marlins vs. A's comparison....The Marlins play in a harder division (World Champs, Braves and Mets)but
I think that the Marlins are a much better hitting team than the A's and for this season, I would take the Marlins' rotation over the A's rotation in a heartbeat. While the A's have a better bullpen, I am not sold that their defense is better as they run out an injured/back is stiff Chavez @ 3B - Cust and Giambi playing anywhere is dangerous - and then there is Garciaparra the butcher (yesterday at 1B, not even ustling after a pop foul that fell - then mishandling an easy enough hop from cabrera at deep short - allowing 5 Angels outs that led to a 2-run inning)

This being said, I hope I am dead wrong as I own 7 A's, including 4/5th's of the starting roation, on my AL fantasy team!

the rosy rundown on the A's is very ... interesting. I have a hard time looking at this version of the A's as all that much better than last year. They got amazing peformances from the rotation last year that will be hard to replicate. The young pitchers coming in aren't arriving with a blank slate, when you look at this. They not only have to do what the staff did in the first half, but they have to improve on it. And while there are a lot of NAMES in the lineup now that everyone recognizes, this is not a good offensive team. People in Oakland are going to be surprised at Holliday's April/May numbers ...

Last year, according to a properly adjusted EqARS / RA, the six best NL teams finished 5, 10, 11, 12, 14, and 16.

To say that this initial Hit List catastrophically fails to adjust for league imbalance would be an understatement. I'm not even sure you're including the c. 2.2 win league difference you guys think exists (it was actually 9.3 last year).