The consequences of the projected climatic changes on the health and growth of European forests are for the time being still unresolved and debated. Analysis of provenance tests and dynamic modeling of four European tree species indicate that the impacts are regionally different. In the temperate-maritime zone, expected rise of temperature – in case of sufficient precipitation – may lead to growth acceleration without significant genetic change. In the southern continental and Mediterranean zone, at the lower (xeric) limits of distribution, however, summer drought increase will trigger higher susceptibility to diseases and mortality, and may cause local extinctions and shifts of distribution area. Extreme selection may narrow genetic variation and cause decline of stability, key attributes to withstand environmental changes. Results confirm that the prudent use of regional differentiation in genetic diversity and stability may provide possibilities for alleviating climate change risks and increase the fitness of next generations. The presented policy principles of adaptive management are based on results of the FORGER project, and were published as Policy Brief (Mátyás and Kramer 2016).

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