Why is the Conservative Party, under David Cameron, not heading for a crushing landslide against a government that is tired, fractious, lacking in stars and presiding over unprecedented failure?

The polls have shown, consistently for the last 6 months or so, the likelihood of either a hung parliament or a small Tory majority to be the next government. The fact is that Mr. Camerons rebranding of the Tories as Labour-Lite has not captured the electorates imagination, unlike the previous couple of government changes which saw Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair reinvent their parties to give the voters a clean break with the past. Why is this? The truth is that Mr. Cameron has not really repositioned his party. He has merely depositioned them. The entire thrust of his election campaign is ”Look at me, I am not Gordon Brown. He is a horrible person and I am nice.” He has failed to nail Labour on any of their numerous failings and refused to point out what his government will do. He is simply relying on the core vote of the Tories seizing on a chance to dethrone Labour and regain power after 13 years of exile.

The reality is that the grassroots of the Conservative party, although desperate to get a Conservative government in, do not see Mr. Cameron as a small c conservative. They have seen his backing out of a promise for a Lisbon referendum, his imposing of shortlists on constituency parties and his shadowing of New Labour policies and see no convincing reason to back him. He has yet to win the argument for them. He seems to be reaching out to Labour and LibDem voters while consistently denigrating their instinctive beliefs, morals and lifestyles. They now see they have a choice and that there is an alternative party that is close to their values. UKIP are challenging for conservative hearts and minds and Mr. Camerons denunciations of UKIP merely reinforce how far away he is from understanding the real conservative agenda.

Tony Blair managed to take Labour away from their deep rooted beliefs in a desperate grab from power. I do not think Mr. Cameron has the charisma, or indeed, the “bottom” to do the same with the Conservative party. If he gets elected, his government will not run a full term. There is no underlying ideological base to his leadership. Only salesmanship. You can fool some of the people Mr. Cameron but it will not sustain you forever.