Iowans will head to the polls in Tuesday's primary in what will likely become the most expensive gubernatorial race in the state’s history.

Candidates for governor raised roughly $17 million since the start of 2017 — an amount that outpaces what’s been amassed during entire election cycles in recent years. Of that, $12.4 million has already been spent blanketing the airwaves with television ads, hiring consultants and sending mailers. Those massive numbers include through the middle of May and will only grow in the final pre-primary tally.

The high spending comes amid higher stakes. Iowa Democrats — facing a volatile primary season, a slew of recent election losses and two years of total Republican control in the Statehouse — say they can’t afford another four years under Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. Reynolds supporters say the state should stay the course in November and re-elect the first female governor it has ever had.

“Democrats are universally saying that we have to do what we can to take our state back and take our country back,” said Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price. “This is too important. They’re certainly not disheartened. They’re upset. They’re angry at what has happened at the Statehouse and at what has happened in Washington. They are fired up, and they are energized to do whatever they can to take this state back.”

Just two weeks before the primary, one of the leading candidates dropped from contention. State Sen. Nate Boulton suspended his campaign May 24, one day after the Des Moines Register published a story in which three women accused him of sexual misconduct. His name will still appear on Tuesday's ballot, and some Iowans likely already cast ballots for him in early voting.

The remaining contenders are: Cathy Glasson, a nurse and union leader; Fred Hubbell, a retired executive and longtime Democratic donor; Andy McGuire, a physician, health care executive and past chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party; John Norris, who has held multiple positions in state and federal government; and Ross Wilburn, a former Iowa City mayor and city councilman.

In their final days, the remaining contenders worked to scoop up Boulton’s supporters and endorsers, making public pitches to them in a televised debate hosted by the Register and KCCI.

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From civil rights to health care, the five Democratic candidates for governor said these are the issues they would not compromise on if they elected.
The Des Moines Register

They also barnstormed the state. Hubbell, on a bright green campaign bus, took a tour through eastern Iowa, while McGuire made stops in Ottumwa at places like The Top Hat Coffee Shop. Glasson was scheduled to hold a series of "get out the vote" events on the Saturday before Election Day, and John Norris was up on television, talking about working families in a new ad.

In the most recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted May 13-15, Hubbell led the field at 31 percent — still short of the 35 percent mark needed to clinch the nomination without a special convention. At the time, Boulton followed in second place, garnering support from 20 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, and Glasson held 13 percent.

But that same poll showed just under a quarter of voters had made up their minds.

Some of those voters say they remain undecided.

“There’s some good people in the race, don’t get me wrong,” said Drew Gentsch, a 48-year-old attorney from Des Moines. “But everybody has some positives and negatives and trying to figure out which one’s the best of that is a challenging undertaking.”

Gentsch said he plans to talk with friends and do some searching online before Election Day in order to reach a decision. The most important quality, he said, is electability.

“(The candidate needs) broader appeal and to be able to connect with everyday Iowans and empathize with their concerns, their lack of mobility perhaps, their lack of access,” he said.

Candidates spend big on TV

Candidates are also using television — both advertising and live debate broadcasts — to influence voters making their decisions in the final days of the race.

The candidates have spent about a quarter of a million dollars on television advertising in the Des Moines market alone during the final two weeks leading up to Election Day, according to a Register analysis.

The bulk of that spending — more than $120,000 — came from Hubbell's campaign. He has launched about a dozen television ads in recent months, running on near-constant rotation. Hubbell has funneled more than $2 million of his own money into his campaign, and, in total, he has spent close to $6 million.

The candidates have squared off in three debates that were televised and live-streamed across the state.

For many voters, those debates were the only chances to see all of the candidates sharing their views side by side. And for the candidates, it was a chance to take some shots at front-runner Hubbell.

Nick Graffg, a 36-year-old business owner from Iowa City, said he was undecided while watching the debate hosted by Iowa Public Television May 16. He liked Boulton's performance. But after misconduct allegations were made public and Boulton suspended his campaign, Graffg said he's now trying to decide between Glasson and Hubbell.

"I think I politically adhere a little bit closer to Ms. Glasson," he said. "But I spend a lot of time in small-town Iowa, and I’m very concerned about electability with her."

Nominee will take on Reynolds

As an incumbent, Reynolds’ candidacy presents a formidable challenge to whoever becomes the Democratic nominee.

Reynolds ascended from lieutenant governor to the state’s chief executive officer last summer when then-Gov. Terry Branstad was named U.S. ambassador to China. As governor, she has presided over a series of conservative legislative achievements that have rallied the Republican base, including massive income tax cuts and a near-total ban on abortions.

Reynolds enters the general election already steeped in resources both financial and political.

Reynolds entered 2017 with $1.1 million in cash on hand in her campaign account, and she pulled in another $5 million for the year. She currently has about $4.2 million in cash on hand after spending on staff, consultants and a pair of television ads.

Those ads — which highlight Reynolds’ humble Iowa roots and working-class background — are an early indication of the messaging she’ll deploy during the general election.

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A volunteer hands out stickers for Gov. Kim Reynolds during the Faith and Freedom Coalition Saturday, May 12, 2018, at Walnut Creek Church in Windsor Heights.(Photo11: Bryon Houlgrave/The Register)

One ad featured Reynolds talking about working nights at Hy-Vee while her husband worked during the day. “Our story, it’s the Iowa story,” she says in the ad.

"The past couple of months without a primary opponent, it’s given us the opportunity to really kind of frame the governor’s message and to define her and introduce her to Iowans and to kind of tell her Iowa story," said Reynolds' campaign manager, Hooff Cooksey.

Although Reynolds has made few official campaign stops, she has maintained a robust public schedule as governor, gaining visibility as she travels the state on her “Unleashing Opportunity” tour. Her campaign stepped up the pace before the primary, scheduling her for eight stops in the three days before voters go to the polls.

Throughout the primary race, each Democrat has been making the case to voters that he or she is best suited both to match up against Reynolds’ folksy charm and to contrast with her “extreme” conservative agenda as governor.

Graffg, the Iowa City voter, said electability in November is a key factor as he makes his decision.