January 14, 2010|Posted by Juan C. Rodriguez on January 14, 2010 09:50 PM

Can anyone else envision David Samson's hand shaking as he signed off on Josh Johnson's four-year, $39 million contract? Based on everything he's said about the risks of giving these kinds of deals to pitchers, I wouldn't expect the Marlins to make a similar commitment again any time soon, and rightly so. The Marlins and every other team with the exception of the Yankees, Red Sox and a few others can't recover quickly from bad contracts.

Josh Johnson was the right guy at the right price. He's been in the organization since day one. His makeup is off the chart, plus he's the type of pitcher playoff teams cannot do without: a No. 1 starter. Would the Marlins have been more comfortable signing Johnson to a three-year deal? No question, but based on what other pitchers of similar ilk have recently garnered at the same point in their careers, guaranteeing that fourth year was a must.

Don't believe that the only reason the Marlins signed Johnson is because the Players Association and Major League Baseball are requiring them to spend more revenue sharing money on payroll from 2010-12. This deal was going to happen. The Marlins are well aware they're not returning to the playoffs without a homegrown, top of the rotation starter.

As long as Johnson kept his numbers reasonable, the Marlins were not going to let that fourth year potentially cost them the opportunity to have him throw the first pitch in their new ballpark in 2012.

Quick aside: The Marlins have two players in Johnson and Hanley Ramirez set to earn a combined $29.25 million in 2013. Two players! The Marlins! Not even the Maya could have predicted that.

I would anticipate the Marlins would continue exercising the utmost caution when it comes to multi-year deals, particularly with pitchers. If anything, being in the MLB and the MLBPA's cross hairs might prompt them over the next couple of seasons to take a a few more shots on high-reward, one-year guys.

Not a lot of those guys left at this point. Some of my colleagues in the media speculated about Jose Valverde, who signed a two-year deal with the Tigers, but that wasn't realistic. Signing Valverde would have cost the Marlins their first round draft pick in 2010. The Marlins didn't stay in contention with meager payrolls by giving those away.

They'll make some more long-term commitments once they're in the new ballpark, just don't look for them to start doing it haphazardly.