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MLB Picks

MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Monday

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Monday.

One of the best pitchers in all of baseball could actually be a nice fade Monday night considering his offense cannot hit in its spacious home stadium when John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox (35-41, 15-22 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander and former Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez and those Seattle Mariners (40-36, 17-20 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 10:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Boston as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +126.

You see, it is no coincidence that Hernandez does not get much run support at home because the fact is none of the Seattle pitchers do. The Mariners are batting just .221 overall at spacious Safeco, and they are an even worse .196 vs. right-handed pitchers in the Emerald City while averaging just 3.17 runs per nine innings against them. Thus, it is always dicey to lay big odds with the Mariners at home, even with a stud pitcher that is putting up the types of numbers that could earn him a second Cy Young Award.

Seattle’s struggles vs. right-handed pitcher benefits Lackey, and he does not really need that much help to begin with. You see, like most pitchers that have undergone Tommy John surgery, Lackey came back better than before last season despite his 10-13 record, as he had a 3.52 ERA and 161 strikeouts vs. just 40 walks.

In case he needs it, Lackey also has the support of a Boston pen that is ranked second in the American League with a 2.88 bullpen ERA, so all things considered the Red Sox appear to offer good underdog value even with Hernandez as their mound opponent on Monday.