The problem would be immediate obsolescence. Although ATSC can support quite a bit of other formats or resolution or codec or whatever, the problem is in the HARDWARE of the HDTV's people own today and watch over the air broadcasts and would be fuming to find they need to buy a new TV 'cause the one they have now aint gonna work anymore.

The FCC does NOT like immediate obsolescence and is why we were stuck with our crappy TV system for soooooo loooooonnnnngggggg, and its later NTSC (Not True Color System) color burst that had to be compatible with all those black and white TV's, etc., and the broadcasters have the bandwidth allotted and THAT's IT! No room to breath like cable, sat, Uverse, or FiOS who can manage their blocks of bandwidth as they wish and bear the cost to replace legacy boxes with new ones for all the new formats.

Cable, satellite, or on-line is where we will most likely see implementations of these new formats.

The problem would be immediate obsolescence. Although ATSC can support quite a bit of other formats or resolution or codec or whatever, the problem is in the HARDWARE of the HDTV's people own today and watch over the air broadcasts and would be fuming to find they need to buy a new TV 'cause the one they have now aint gonna work anymore.

The FCC does NOT like immediate obsolescence and is why we were stuck with our crappy TV system for soooooo loooooonnnnngggggg, and its later NTSC (Not True Color System) color burst that had to be compatible with all those black and white TV's, etc., and the broadcasters have the bandwidth allotted and THAT's IT! No room to breath like cable, sat, Uverse, or FiOS who can manage their blocks of bandwidth as they wish and bear the cost to replace legacy boxes with new ones for all the new formats.

Cable, satellite, or on-line is where we will most likely see implementations of these new formats.

do you think the FCC auctioning of more bandwidth over the coming years can help allievate this problem? maybe one day even 4k over the air?

Maybe someday, but it will require another wholesale conversion of hardware. 4K is likely not going to fit in the bandwidth that the current receivers can tune in. I just can't see us obsoleting all the hardware that's been produced in the last 6 years or so. Not very soon.

I believe HDTV has been broadcast in Japan since the 80s, while its taken the mid-00's before it's become common in North America. In the meantime, we've had groups consolidating on standards for HDTV transmission and all that, plus install base.

1080p *might* happen within a few years, if it can be justified (i.e., it'll probably happen on a few channels only).

4K, considering the standards for conveyance among home equipment have only been around a couple of yeras, may become popular within the home - next-gen Blu-Ray for example. But it'll be a niche area for awhile as the equipment will be expensive as video processors are hard to come by (and thus expensive) and displays, even more so. Maybe in a decade you can start finding them at Best Buy (if it's still around) at decent prices. OTA will probably take far longer as there are very strong bandwidth crunches going on - the mobile industry is clamoring for more bandwidth for 4G and probably 5G+ services. The FCC released 700MHz from TV to mobile very recently.

Plus, well, movies are currently using 4K. You cam probably bet that they won't want any form of 4K movies or broadcasts until they can move the industry to 8K or more. And many theatres only recently upgraded to 4K - some still use 2K. After all, they need asses in seats.

I have a slightly different take on where the industry and resolutions are likely going. First 4k is never or no time in the near future to be an OTA boadcast resolution. Even with h.264 encoding, it takes far too much bandwidth. It is likely to be used for networked video transmission. Theaters use it today and it will move to home use.

Physical theaters as a social institution are in decline. Fewer folks go to theaters due to crowds, lack of consideration for others, dirt, high percieved cost to value ratio. New release films will be sold directly to home theater as soon as Hollywood figures out a way to do so and make a profit. It will happen. The company that can figure it out and bring it to market will make a fortune. Google and Apple are keenly aware of this. Heck, Tivo could even make it happen....yeah, dream on.

Broadcast TV is likely to stay at 720p and 1080i for many years. 1080p via cable or sat for movie channels, PPV etc is a near term possibility as is via online services. Some are using it already.

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Are you sure about that? I don't know enough to refute or agree, but I thought 4k was a very new process, and we are just now seeing one or two movies that way? In fact, I thought the Hobbit was the first commercial 4K movie.

I go to the movies all the time. I have enough disposable income that the expense isn't really an issue and I like to go just to get out of the house. We also have a pretty nice theater that's only a couple years old. If it was a dump, like the old one, I probably wouldn't go as much.

If they offered some way to watch "in theater" movies at home I'd probably still go to the movies a lot, but maybe not as much. Sometimes it's about getting out of the house or watching something on the big screen, but other times I just want to see something and not have to wait 9 months for it to come out on DVD. In those cases renting it via some home service would be fine.

I go to the movies all the time. I have enough disposable income that the expense isn't really an issue and I like to go just to get out of the house. We also have a pretty nice theater that's only a couple years old. If it was a dump, like the old one, I probably wouldn't go as much.

If they offered some way to watch "in theater" movies at home I'd probably still go to the movies a lot, but maybe not as much. Sometimes it's about getting out of the house or watching something on the big screen, but other times I just want to see something and not have to wait 9 months for it to come out on DVD. In those cases renting it via some home service would be fine.

Dan

so true... it's often about the experience. Some movies I want to see with a large group of people... hard to explain but it's true

Ill behaved members of the crowds making the movie going experience less and less desireable.

Then there is the whole violence thing. The shootings in CO were the worst but muggings, thefts and stabbings in crowded theaters have been going on for years. Access is too easy, behaviour too well masked.

Wife and I have only gone to a theater for a movie about 4 times in the last year. Each time, we wished we had not. The theater is new enough and clean enough. Its the falling quality of the patrons that are there and ruin the experience.

Yes there are some films better with friends. If they were available direct to home, we would have friends over for movie night. We do now anyway. Its a much more desireable way to see a film. Besides, I make better popcorn.

The screen is effectively bigger (field of vision) at home than at the local 24plex.

Real home theaters, not just TVs are more popular now than ever before, mostly because of the declining movieplex experience.

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Are you sure about that? I don't know enough to refute or agree, but I thought 4k was a very new process, and we are just now seeing one or two movies that way? In fact, I thought the Hobbit was the first commercial 4K movie.

Very few modern theaters use reels of film any longer. Commercial grade 4k projectors have been around for a few years. The distribution savings more than paid for the cost of the new equipment and for new installations, there was no cost issue with digital projection.

Very few modern theaters use reels of film any longer. Commercial grade 4k projectors have been around for a few years. The distribution savings more than paid for the cost of the new equipment and for new installations, there was no cost issue with digital projection.

I understand that this has driven many small independent theaters out of business, since they cannot afford to buy the digital projection equipment.