Preview surfaces for UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II

When UFC 148 arrives it will have been nearly two full years since middleweight championAnderson Silva narrowly escaped a title-defense against Chael Sonnen with his reign intact. However, based on the emotion involved as well as Sonnen’s uncanny ability to promote, it feels like only yesterday the 35-year old grappler dominated Silva for four rounds until succumbing to a submission in the final frame.

With the hotly anticipated rematch between the two about a month away the UFC has released a preview for the match-up including a quick recap of their 2010 match-up as a voiceover builds the intensity, stating, “In nearly a decade of dominance no man has come close to beating Anderson Silva…except one!”

I haven’t finished my amateur research into TRT, but this is relevant to how Chael may — or may not — be approaching his usage prior to fight night:

The half-life of injectable T is only eight days. So every eight days, half of the T you took is washed out of your blood. Therefore, if a cheater knows when he is likely to be tested (i.e. post-fight), he doesn’t need to be a genius to know when to stop taking (“cycle off”) to test lower than 6:1 or 4:1. Twenty-four days is three half-lives, and virtually none of the extra T is left in your system to get you busted.

It’s from Dr. Johnny Benjamin’s article regarding T/E ratios.

I doubt Sonnen is planning on beating Overeem’s record (again) in his pre-fight and post-fight piss tests, but unless he is being tested regularly, the paragraph above shows you how weak this whole TUE process is.

Sonnen has very little chance of competing in this fight. Silva will be healthy and motivated, and Sonnen will not have the testosterone of 4 men coursing through his system. The punches that knocked him loopy by the noodle-fisted Bisping, are gonna cave in his skull when delivered by one of (if not) the greatest strikers in the sport’s history.

As Faust partially described above, the TRT thing is a pretty silly game. Chael has been doing this for a while, and it seems he just miscalculated with his cycling for the first Silva fight. Perhaps too aggressive with the cycling in hopes of getting every last drop of the juice, as close to the fight as possible. (Sorry for the technical terms there.)

Sort of like Nick Diaz using pot right up to the last day he feels he possibly can before his cleansing ritual… which, if I recall correctly, is also 8 days as he flushes his system thru extreme water consumption & cardio training. While not the same type of drug (as it relates to the fight game), still similar circumstances in terms of the games these guys play with what they’re putting in their system and the exact timing leading up to a fight/testing.

So anyway, Chael just needs to play it safer this time around. He’s got the exemption for TRT; he’s just gotta be careful with the levels. How much impact will that have on him physically (and perhaps even mentally) come fight night? Who the heck knows. I’d like to think it would be better to maintain a consistent level of usage, so that the body becomes well acclimated at the highest legal T/E ratio, rather than cycling up and then trying to catch the level coming down at just the right time. Just too risky with the timing, and also seems like it could mess with a guy physically and/or mentally if his body is experiencing that sort of testosterone fluctuation. Bottom line is Chael will almost certainly not be fighting Anderson with the same (elevated) level of testosterone this second time around.

But while that might be a factor in how the fight plays out, I don’t think it will be nearly as significant as Anderson’s health. In the first fight, the injured rib seemed to slow him down, contributing to his already suspect TD defense, with the injury only worsening each time he was slammed to the mat. Assuming the knee is good to go, I think he’ll be much more elusive on the feet, implementing the feeling out/dance routine early in the fight that we sometimes see from him, before he gradually starts to pick Chael apart and eventually finishes him with strikes. I’m sticking with 2nd round TKO, in a completely lopsided fight.