FuelPrice Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuelprices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuelprices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

2008 Abstract The relationship between gasoline prices and the demand for vehicle fuel efficiencyAutomobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy Ashley Langer University evidence that automobile manufacturers set vehicle prices as if consumers respond to gasoline prices. We

............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: FuelPrice Forecast Introduction

This report presents a statistical analysis of future prices of petroleum products for use in predicting the monthly average retail price of kerosene-type jet fuel. The method of least squares was employed to examine the relationship between kerosene-type jet fuel retail prices and energy futures prices. Regression equations were constructed for four of the petroleum commodities traded on the energy futures market: heating oil No. 2, leaded regular gasoline, crude oil, and unleaded gasoline. Thirty-nine regression equations were estimated by the method of least squares to relate the cash price of kerosene-type jet fuel to the futures prices of the above four petroleum commodities for contract periods of 1 to 12 months. The analysis revealed that 19 of the 39 first-order linear regression equations provided a good fit to the data. Specifically, heating oil No. 2 performed better than the order energy futures in predicting the price of kerosene-type jet fuel. The only information required to use these regression equations are energy futures prices which are available daily from the Wall Street Journal. 5 refs., 4 tabs.

This paper evaluates the effect of fuelprices on new vehicle fuel economy in the eight largest European markets. The analysis spans the years 2002–2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to ...

Fuel Economy With the price of gasoline at over $3.50 a gallon the fuel economy of vehicles proposed raising the Corporate AverageFuel Economy (CAFÉ) standard for cars and trucks. In 2004, American cars needed to achieve an averagefuel economy of 27.5 miles per gallon (MPG) while light trucks needed

In recent years, the price of oil has driven large fluctuations in the price of diesel fuel, which is an important cost component in freight logistics. This thesis explores the impact of fuelprice volatility on supply ...

Conversion of corn to ethanol in the US since 2005 has been a major cause of global food price increases during that time and has been shown to be ineffective in achieving US energy independence and reducing environmental impact. We make three key statements to enhance understanding and communication about ethanol production's impact on the food and fuel markets: (1) The amount of corn used to produce the ethanol in a gallon of regular gas would feed a person for a day, (2) The production of ethanol is so energy intensive that it uses only 20% less fossil fuel than gasoline, and (3) The cost of gas made with ethanol is actually higher per mile because ethanol reduces gasoline's energy per gallon.

in the fact that it does not require such cost predictions. VWAP vs. Arrival Price So how does arrival priceImplementation Shortfall Â­ One Objective, Many Algorithms VWAP (Volume Weighted AveragePrice) has year toward using decision price, or implementation shortfall, algorithms. ITGÂ®'s Hitesh Mittal

This survey of 41 countries reveals that while most countries experienced higher prices in national currencies, a stronger dollar resulted in lower U.S. dollar adjusted fuelprices during the first half of the year. Currency exchange rate depreciation against the dollar was the predominant fact around the world.

(LNG) imports. With the higher natural gas prices of recent years and technological improvements in drilling, nonconventional supplies of natural gas have expanded rapidly. A significant amount of LNG import

.S. Department of Energy's July 2013 alternative fuelprice report, the price of propane (LPG) in North Carolina at least $1,000 in yearly fuel costs by driving on natural gas or propane. · According to the U

Corporate AverageFuel Economy (CAFE) standards and CO2 emissions standards for 2012 to 2016 have significantly increased the stringency of requirements for new light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency. This study investigates the role of technology adoption and pricing strategies in meeting new standards, as well as the impact of feebate policies. The analysis is carried out by means of a dynamic optimization model that simulates manufacturer decisions with the objective of maximizing social surplus while simultaneously considering consumer response and meeting CAFE and emissions standards. The results indicate that technology adoption plays the major role and that the provision of compliance flexibility and the availability of cost-effective advanced technologies help manufacturers reduce the need for pricing to induce changes in the mix of vehicles sold. Feebates, when implemented along with fuel economy and emissions standards, can bring additional fuel economy improvement and emissions reduction, but the benefit diminishes with the increasing stringency of the standards.

Problems in the establishment of natural gas prices are outlined. The tropics discussed include: US average natural gas prices; US average natural gas prices; US averagefuel oil prices; and US average electric utility natural gas T and D margin in dollars Mcf.

. In addition, the delivered price of coal to power plants located in the region will be affected by diesel fuel The Fifth Power Plan includes price forecasts for natural gas, oil, and coal. Natural gas prices have by far costs for trains that deliver coal to the plants. Recent higher prices for coal are partially related

Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuelprice on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuelprice, the level of change in fuelprice, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.

Crude oil prices plunged to five year lows late in 1993. However, examination of consumer petroleum product prices around the world reveals that consumers in many countries did not enjoy a consequent drop.

The enrichment process and how it is to be modeled in the International Nuclear Model (INM) is described. The details of enrichment production, planning, unit price generation, demand estimation and ordering are examined. The enrichment process from both the producer's and the utility's point of view is analyzed. The enrichment separative-work-unit (SWU) contracts are also discussed. The relationship of the enrichment process with other sectors of the nuclear fuel cycle, expecially uranium mining and milling is considered. There are portions of the enrichment process that are not completely understood at the present time. These areas, which require further study, will be pinpointed in the following discussion. In many cases, e.g., the advent of SMU brokerage activities, the answers will emerge only in time. In other cases, e.g., political trends, uncertainties will always remain. It is possible to cast the uncertainties in a probabilistic framework, but this is beyond the scope of this report. INM, a comprehensive model of the international nuclear industry, simulates the market decision process based on current and future price expectations under a broad range of scenario specifications. INM determines the proper reactor mix as well as the planning, operation, and unit price generation of the attendant nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The level of detail of many of the enrichment activities presented in this report, e.g., the enrichment contracts, is too fine to be incorporated into INM. Nevertheless, they are presented in a form that is ammendable to modeling. The reasons for this are two-fold. First, it shows the level of complexity that would be required to model the entire system. Second, it presents the structural framework for a detailed, stand-alone enrichment model.

Forecasting FuelPrices. http://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-13.htm Not only depends on what is the best to worst, depending on your point of view. The truth is that the move away from non green fuels is not numerical, but one that is of insight and has perspective. The price of fuels is one that has to also

Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuelprice risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then--contrary to common practice--any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000-2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.

of both generation and transmission. If these convenient assumptions prevailed in the power system the location of power plants with lumpy transmission investments? 1 Vincent Riousa, 2, 3 , Philippe Dessantea plants with lumpy transmission investments. Nodal pricing sends the short run component of such a two

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuelprice risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuelprice risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuelprice input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High FuelPrice Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuelprices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuelprice forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High FuelPrice Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High FuelPrice Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High FuelPrice Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High FuelPrice Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas-fired units account for nearly 90% of the total generating capacity added in the U.S. between 1999 and 2005 (EIA 2006b), bringing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation to 19%. Looking ahead over the next decade, the EIA expects this trend to continue, increasing the market share of gas-fired generation to 22% by 2015 (EIA 2007a). Though these numbers are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in many other countries as well. A large percentage of the total cost of gas-fired generation is attributable to fuel costs--i.e., natural gas prices. For example, at current spot prices of around $7/MMBtu, fuel costs account for more than 75% of the levelized cost of energy from a new combined cycle gas turbine, and more than 90% of its operating costs (EIA 2007a). Furthermore, given that gas-fired plants are often the marginal supply units that set the market-clearing price for all generators in a competitive wholesale market, there is a direct link between natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, the dramatic increase in natural gas prices since the 1990s should be a cause for ratepayer concern. Figure 1 shows the daily price history of the 'first-nearby' (i.e., closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas futures contract (black line) at Henry Hub, along with the futures strip (i.e., the full series of futures contracts) from August 22, 2007 (red line). First, nearby prices, which closely track spot prices, have recently been trading within a $7-9/MMBtu range in the United States and, as shown by the futures strip, are expected to remain there through 2012. These price levels are $6/MMBtu higher than the $1-3/MMBtu range seen throughout most of the 1990s, demonstrating significant price escalation for natural gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy (relative to conventional fuels), we do seek to quantify the magnitude of these two individual benefit

higher. Eventually, sales volume will begin to decline, but fossil fuel moguls will make more money than unconventional fossil fuels such as tar shale and tar sands on a large scale. That choice cannot be left is captured and sequestered) and unconventional fossil fuels are not tapped #12;substantially. Peak CO2 can

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2002; Level: National5Sales for On-Highway4,1,50022,3,,,,6,1,9,1,50022,3,,,,6,1,Decade Year-0E (2001) -heatingintensityArea: U.S. East

of biofuel. The current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel use by 2022. A large proportion of the mandate is to consist of corn-based ethanol. Most ethanol is consumed in the U.S. as a 10 percent blend of ethanol...

NATCOR - Xpress case study Margaret Oil produces three products: gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil. To produce these products, Margaret purchases crude oil at a price of £11 per barrel. Each day to produce gasoline or jet fuel. Distilled oil can be used to produce all three products. The octane level

will be an important step in understanding how travelers may respond to future changes in gasoline prices of 2005 in which you spent the most on gasoline (or observed prices to be the highest.) Summer of 2005 canSurvey Title: Traveler Response to FuelPrice Changes University of Texas at Austin Internal Review

Research. #12;Air pollution from automobile exhaust and refueling remains a primary focus of envi- ronmental regulators and activists. To curb pollution, many alternative automobile fuels have been suggested

Since 1975, the fuel economy of passenger cars and light trucks has been regulated by the corporate averagefuel economy (CAFE) standards, established during the energy crises of the 1970s. Calls to increase fuel economy are usually met by a fierce debate on the effectiveness of the CAFE standards

Coal`s low hydrogen to carbon ratio gives coal physical properties that are not the most desired in fuel markets. The problem is dealt with in conversion technologies designed to upgrade coal to more desirable fuels by either: (1) chemically adding hydrogen, as in liquefaction or high-BTU gasification, or (2) the production of char, as in mild gasification. The first option is neither cost-effective nor environmentally sound. Liquefaction results in the production of one mole of carbon dioxide for each mole of hydrogen needed. The result is that despite the preferred hydrogen to carbon ratio in the fuel, carbon dioxide is produced in greater quantities than it would be by simply burning the coal. The depressed market value of char is the primary drawback of coal utilization technologies exercising the second option. Making value-added, non-fuel products from char could significantly improve the economics of overall operations and result in competitively-priced premium hydrocarbon fuels. The research goal of a growing number of groups, including ours, is to produce and describe carbon products which will command higher prices than the carbon (coal) from which they were produced.

. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oil prices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last. Figure C-1 World Oil Prices Have Been Following the 1991 Plan Low Forecast 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25 and earlier Council plans, natural gas prices were dependent on the assumptions about world oil prices

This study analyses the un-priced environmental harm caused by generating electricity from fossil fuels in the ECAR control region south of the Great Lakes in 2004 and again in 2015 when the recent Clean Air Interstate Rule will have its full effect. Using existing damage values, we estimate wholesale electricity under-pricing for coal-fired plants at about $40 per MWh in 2004, almost as much again as the $45/MWh actual price. Averaging across all fuels, the price of electricity was more than $30/MWh too low. The under-pricing will still be $18/MWh for coal plants and $15 for all generation sources in 2015, a decade after CAIR was adopted. Recognizing this environmental price now could reduce pollution levels, increase energy conservation and lead to wiser choices of new generation technology.

This study utilizes existing data sources and previous analyses of state-level energy prices to develop consistent state-level energy prices series by fuel type and by end-use sector. The fuels are electricity, natural gas, coal, distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, diesel, kerosene, jet fuel, residual fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas. The end-use sectors are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Based upon an evaluation of existing data sources, recommendations were formulated on the feasible approaches for developing a consistent state energy price series. The data series were compiled based upon the approaches approved after a formal EIA review. Detailed documentation was provided, including annual updating procedures. Recommendations were formulated for future improvements in the collection of data or in data processing. Generally, the geographical coverage includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Information on state-level energy use was generally taken from the State Energy Data System (SEDS). Corresponding average US prices are also developed using volumes reported in SEDS. To the extent possible, the prices developed are quantity weighted average retail prices. Both a Btu price series and a physical unit price series are developed for each fuel. The period covered by the data series is 1970 through 1980 for most fuels, though prices for electricity and natural gas extend back to 1960. (PSB)

This paper examines the relationship between future carbon prices and the expected profit of companies by case studies with model companies. As the future carbon price will vary significantly in accordance with the political ...

The Fissile Material Disposition Program Light Water Reactor Mixed Oxide Fuel Irradiation Test Project Plan details a series of test irradiations designed to investigate the use of weapons-grade plutonium in MOX fuel for light water reactors (LWR) (Cowell 1996a, Cowell 1997a, Thoms 1997a). Commercial MOX fuel has been successfully used in overseas reactors for many years; however, weapons-derived test fuel contains small amounts of gallium (about 2 parts per million). A concern exists that the gallium may migrate out of the fuel and into the clad, inducing embrittlement. For preliminary out-of-pile experiments, Wilson (1997) states that intermetallic compound formation is the principal interaction mechanism between zircaloy cladding and gallium. This interaction is very limited by the low mass of gallium, so problems are not expected with the zircaloy cladding, but an in-pile experiment is needed to confirm the out-of-pile experiments. Ryskamp (1998) provides an overview of this experiment and its documentation. The purpose of this Experiment Safety Assurance Package (ESAP) is to demonstrate the safe irradiation and handling of the mixed uranium and plutonium oxide (MOX) FuelAverage Power Test (APT) experiment as required by Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) Technical Safety Requirement (TSR) 3.9.1 (LMITCO 1998). This ESAP addresses the specific operation of the MOX Fuel APT experiment with respect to the operating envelope for irradiation established by the Upgraded Final Safety Analysis Report (UFSAR) Lockheed Martin Idaho Technologies Company (LMITCO 1997a). Experiment handling activities are discussed herein.

that number by the index of the future month for which the price forecast is being determined. For example, if June Amarillo direct fed cattle pricesaveraged $64 per hun- dredweight (cwt.), the forecast for October would be $64 divided by 97.12, multiplied... by 99.04 = $65.27 per cwt. Adjusting for the vari- ability suggests that there is a 68 percent proba- bility that the October monthly averageprice would fall between $70.67 cwt. and $59.87 cwt. Seasonal Price Index for Amarillo Direct Fed Steers...

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil pricesaveraged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Average burnup of damaged fuels loaded in Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors is estimated, using the {sup 134}Cs/{sup 137}Cs ratio method for measured radioactivities of {sup 134}Cs and {sup 137}Cs in contaminated soils within the range of 100 km from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants. As a result, the measured {sup 134}Cs/{sup 137}Cs ratio from the contaminated soil is 0.996{+-}0.07 as of March 11, 2011. Based on the {sup 134}Cs/{sup 137}Cs ratio method, the estimated burnup of damaged fuels is approximately 17.2{+-}1.5 [GWd/tHM]. It is noted that the numerical results of various calculation codes (SRAC2006/PIJ, SCALE6.0/TRITON, and MVP-BURN) are almost the same evaluation values of {sup 134}Cs/ {sup 137}Cs ratio with same evaluated nuclear data library (ENDF-B/VII.0). The void fraction effect in depletion calculation has a major impact on {sup 134}Cs/{sup 137}Cs ratio compared with the differences between JENDL-4.0 and ENDF-B/VII.0. (authors)

The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide concise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; propane net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for PADD`s I, II, and III; natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s; as well as selected National averageprices; residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and a 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree-days by city.

The Winter Fuels Report is intended to provide consise, timely information to the industry, the press, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments on the following topics: Distillate fuel oil net production, imports and stocks on a US level and for all Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) and product supplied on a US level; Natural gas supply and disposition and underground storage for the US and consumption for all PADD`s as well as selected National averageprices; Residential and wholesale pricing data for heating oil and propane for those States participating in the joint Energy Information Administration (EIA)/State Heating Oil and Propane Program; Crude oil and petroleum price comparisons for the US and selected cities; and A 6-10 Day and 30-Day outlook for temperature and precipitation and US total heating degree days by city.

An effort to determine the effect of restructuring on prices finds that, on average, prices for industrial customers in restructured states were lower, relative to predicted prices, than prices for industrial customers in non-restructured states. This preliminary analysis also finds that these price changes are explained primarily by high pre-restructuring prices, not whether or not a state restructured. (author)