Florida State Football Predictions

In just the 4th season under head coach Jimbo Fisher, the Florida State Seminoles put together a perfect 14-0 season that ended with a thrilling 34-31 win over Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game. It was the school’s first title since they last won in 1999 under the great Bobby Bowden. Their victory also put an end the SEC’s streak of 7 straight national titles.

While the Seminoles had to rally from a 21-3 deficit in the championship game, for the most part this team didn’t have much trouble disposing of the competition. Each of their previous 13 games were all decided by at least two touchdowns. What’s even more impressive is they outscored the four ranked opponents they faced during the regular season by a combined score of 200-35, which included a 51-14 rout at then No. 3 Clemson.

Florida State averaged a ridiculous 51.6 points on their way to scoring a FBS-record 723 points and shockingly allowed just 12.1 ppg on defense with a mere 4 starters back from the previous year. The big story in Tallahassee was red-shirt freshman Jameis Winston, who would go on to win the Heisman Trophy.

Last Season

ACC (Atlantic)

Record

ATS Record

Over/Under

Points For

Points Against

1st

14-0

11-3

10-4

51.6

12.1

2014 Florida State Seminoles Schedule

Date

Opponent

Spread (Est.)

Win Chance

8/30

Oklahoma State (Arlington)

-17

1

9/6

The Citadel

-51

1

9/20

Clemson

-17

1

9/27

@ NC State

-30

1

10/4

Wake Forest

-38

1

10/11

@ Syracuse

-21

1

10/18

Notre Dame

-24

1

10/30

@ Louisville

-17

1

11/8

Virginia

-31

1

11/15

@ Miami

-14.5

0.87

11/22

Boston College

-37

1

11/29

Florida

-17

1

Estimated Wins: 11.87

The focus for Fisher and company is whether or not they have what it takes to defend their title. The Seminoles have a solid nucleus coming back with 12 starters returning alongside Winston, but as you would expect they lost a number of key pieces from last year to the NFL. In total the Seminoles had 7 players drafted. The only player taken in the first round was wide out Kelvin Benjamin, but the defense parted ways with nose tackle Timmy Jernigan (second round pick), corner Lamarcus Joyner (second round) free safety Terrence Brooks (3rd round pick) and linebacker Telvin Smith (5th round pick).

This might not seem like a big deal for a program like Florida State, who routinely brings in a Top 10 recruiting class (No. 3 overall 2014), but this is now the second straight year this team has lost a ton of talent. The Seminoles had 11 players taken in the draft in 2013 (school record), seven of which came on the defensive side of the ball. To put in in perspective, Florida State had a total of 14 players drafted from 2008 to 2012 (5 years). I’m not saying the Seminoles won’t be able to overcome this in 2014, but it’s definitely something that concerns me going into the new year.

The efficiency this team displayed on both sides of the ball in 2013 was remarkable. Florida State’s 10.1 yards per point on offense was the best in the nation, as was their 23.2 ypp on defense. The Seminoles scored a ridiculous 9.9 points for every 100 yards of total offense they gained and allowed just 4.3 points for every 100 yards they gave up on defense. History suggest that Florida State is going to regress back to the mean, which in turn suggests that they won’t dominate the opposition like they did a year ago.

Another sign pointing towards a potential decline in 2014 is the fact that Florida State’s schedule figures to provide more of a challenge. They open up with a neutral site game against a quality Oklahoma State program, plus will have a couple other challenging non-conference games at home against Notre Dame and Florida. The conference portion of the schedule isn’t all that bad. They got to host Clemson and avoid having to play arguably the two best teams out of the Coastal in Virginia Tech and North Carolina. However, they do have to go on the road to face Miami and ACC newcomer Louisville.

Odds

Season Predictions

Oddsmakers have set the Seminoles win total at 11, which is interesting considering they are expected to be a double-digit favorite in all 12 of their regular season games. It definitely has to make you think that oddsmakers are expecting to see them lose at least once, as the majority of the bets coming in will almost certainly be on the OVER 11.

I went ahead and predicted Florida State to finish undefeated, but it’s not one of my favorite plays. Not every team handles success well and I have my concerns that the Seminoles won’t come into 2014 with the same edge they had last near. Not to mention they lost a lot key pieces on both sides of the ball. This team clearly has the potential to get to the 4-team playoff, but I don’t see them being able to defend their title. This is a quality team that should take advantage of a soft schedule, I just don’t believe they are the best team in the country.

While I won’t be placing a wager on Florida State’s win total, I think there’s going to be a lot of value to be had fading the Seminoles on the spread. This team was an incredible 11-3 ATS in 2013 and there’s no doubt the public will be all over them regardless of what the line is. The thing you have to keep in mind is that we have seen elite teams like Oregon continue to cover even with inflated lines. The key thing to look for early is whether or not the Seminoles continue to run up the score like they did last year and whether or not the defense doesn’t take a noticeable step back.

About the Author:
Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!