Anime Decade: From Japan Cool to Cooling Off

> This may or may not have anything to do with the
> Anime market but what do you all think about the
> Hollywood Studios making deals with Netflix and
> Red Box, those places not renting out DVDs to
> customers until after they have been for sale for
> 1 month forcing people who want to see a new
> release to buy rather than just rent.

I didn't really address this in specific, let me do so here.

This shows the amazing short-sightedness at work here.

OK, the current 'action line' from Hollywood is "OH NOZE DVD SALES ARE DROPPING HOW DO WE GET THAT BACK?!?!!?", correct?

(my realistic answer is they can't, as the lost of over 3000 stores since 2005, that sell DVDs, means that all the alternate channels including the internet just don't access the customers the way B&M does, of the slack would have been picked up by people FLOCKING to the internet to buy the stuff)

OK, so here's the practical effect of the month long moratorium on sales to Netflix. They will order fewer copies of the BIG RELEASE.

Follow the logic. Thanks to Blockbuster back around the time Titanic came out, having tons of copies of NEW RELEASE so nobody walks away empty handed when they want to rent it RIGHT NOW is the current business model. Under this model Netflix would order, say, 5 MILLION copies of Avatar ready to ship out to subscribers to arrive in homes on street date, but as I've discussed, new releases have a HOT lifespan of about 2 weeks. After two weeks demand slacks bigtime, as the next NEW BIG comes out. and when there's no NEW BIG, there's always old favorites and deep catalog.

So, follow? Under the old system Netflix would order 5 million copies of Avatar. But now there's a month long moratorium, which clearly is longer than the expected hot period. People either bought Avatar, or they went to Blockbuster. So, why should Netflix order those 5 million copies now? I expect they'd trim the order to 100,000.

Walmart, Target et al didn't INCREASE their buys on the movie because they don't want to be stuck with unreturnable product. So there's no 'bump' to the studio. the extra sales they would get from Redbox employees buying discs for the machines goes away due to legal threats from the studio.

In the end Avatar sells 5 million fewer copies then expected, and the headline becomes "Biggest moneymaking movie of all time falls short on home video" and panic ensues.

Steve,
I'm curious due to your knowledge of everything marketing, production and retail; what exactly are your credentials on all this? Please don't let the answer be that you read stuff on the internet, or that you've worked in retail. Do you have a masters in some form of business? Some kind of marketing background perhaps?
-Mason

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthewalt &quot;I actually kinda LIKE that approach! You know: let's make a TOY. Remember those? Products designed to be played with without breaking? DO YOU REMEMBER, LOVE?!&quot;

Vincent Z. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >We liked all the shit they didn't care about.
> Like Big O or Black Lagoon.
>
> Calm down VF5SS, Jeez. I feel like if we like
> those type of shows SO much then maybe we should
> GOSH, start making stuff like that here instead of
> relying on Japanese creators making them.

mcfitch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Steve,
> I'm curious due to your knowledge of everything
> marketing, production and retail; what exactly are
> your credentials on all this? Please don't let
> the answer be that you read stuff on the internet,
> or that you've worked in retail. Do you have a
> masters in some form of business? Some kind of
> marketing background perhaps?
> -Mason

And if I said I had an MBA in business would you believe me? GVSU has a pretty good program you know.

Vincent Z. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Calm down VF5SS, Jeez. I feel like if we like
> those type of shows SO much then maybe we should
> GOSH, start making stuff like that here instead of
> relying on Japanese creators making them.

The more I think about this the more it resembles the music industry...Despite all the doom and gloom going on there. Peopl& are still forming up bands, still writeing and produceing thier own music, Mom & Pop record labels still sell them, they still put on shows, sell Tee-shirts, bumperstickers, even CDs. Some even make a full time living off it, some even become rich...all without ever haveing thier music play on top 40 radio...Insane Clown Possie (ICP) imeadiently springs to mind, they have built a dedicated fan base, thier own recording label...carved thier own nitche in this world.

I don't see how a small group of people can't do the same with anime today...with modern technology...And the internet...finding thier nitche, building thier own fanbase through talent, deturmination, and a bit of entrepreneur spirit...This worked for Homestar Runner ;)

Of course ICP and Homestar Runner arn't for everyone...neither is Moe, mecha anime, WWII basied First Person shooters, American Idol, Avatar and thousands of other things out there (popular or not).

The second is mainly related on how the R1 anime industry likes to con suckers sadly. Blu Ray is ONLY good for movies, OVAs made on 35mm film and some TV series made in 1080p, otherwise it's bullshit media format I don't really care about other than rips from Japanese releases (like Hades Project Zeorymer).

--------------------------------------------------------------

I asked if I have "Time For L-Gaim" but I got "No Reply From The Wind".

Is there a reason why the industry doesn't take into account the impact of digital sales by way of outlets like iTunes or streaming content from Netflix, Hulu or Crunchyroll since they went legit? Is it all just about moving physical product or meeting a specific profit margin?

Kwesi K. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is there a reason why the industry doesn't take
> into account the impact of digital sales by way of
> outlets like iTunes or streaming content from
> Netflix, Hulu or Crunchyroll since they went
> legit? Is it all just about moving physical
> product or meeting a specific profit margin?

Well, it's another revenue stream and all money is welcome, but it's just not as big, it's not the big score. I know this may come as a shock, but there really aren't as many people with super fat pipes and super powerful computers as many think. Look at how it's common knowledge that most of the traffic to YouTube and other streaming sites come from people pirating their school or workplace's T-1, milking bandwidth (and dropping productivity like crazy, if I read the last news report on this right).

They haven't figured out how to monetize it to any large, successful degree. Part of the blame is because the internet isn't complete.

See, way back when, all the talk was about 'micro money' and 'micro payments'. If you wanted to read a news article at the Wall Street Journal you would click the link and 1/10 of one cent would be deducted from your internet account. You wouldn't miss it, you wouldn't even notice it. Seamless, painless. But to the site taking the micro-money it would add up very quickly. A page view of 100,000 would be worth $100, not too major sounding but multiply THAT by hundreds of pages, every day. This is one of the forgotten reason why all the talk was of 'getting eyeballs' way back when. Cookies were one way micro-money was supposed to be managed so you didn't get charged twice for a page, say if you were back clicking to check something.

(and some people pretty quickly figured out that it WOULD end up as a huge debit to the web surfer, as people didn't just go to one place. Folk like to click and click and click and wow, 1/10 of one cent adds up real fast)

Micro-money, teamed with real-time streaming video-on-demand was supposed to be the ultimate 'pay-per-view', and content providers would finally be free of the hold of the Networks, which you can think of as the B&M of TV. The most crappy sitcom on NBC has higher ratings then any cable show (except, for brief times, hiccups like Sex and the City and The Sopranos) because it's on one of the Majors.

Micro-money was the key to the treasure chest, but it never became reality. Yet so much has been created in anticipation of having that, and lo, so many sites have come and gone.

Right now Hulu is doing pretty well, but there's rumors they intend to turn into a pay service, and that's going to cut their viewership by a large margin. People watching stuff on the internet just don't think they need to pay for it and that's a really hard paradigm to shift.

QuoteRight now Hulu is doing pretty well, but there's rumors they intend to turn into a pay service, and that's going to cut their viewership by a large margin. People watching stuff on the internet just don't think they need to pay for it and that's a really hard paradigm to shift.

Of course that is mostly because it really is quite easy to find the same contents from a free (but illegal) source.

I have to say that from that point of view I am totally mystified as to why companies and governments don't crack down much harder on fansubbers and scanlaters. Most are quite visible, with big sites offering all kinds of illegal downloads and the ability to view stuff online, so it shouldn't be that hard to nail them. Of course, some might be located in countries that will not prosecute them, but frankly I'm not sure whether that is a problem - just block the goddamn sites in places where they're prohibited by law (censure based on non-draconian copyright laws seems okay to me).

If companies would do that while also offering a viable alternative...like a service where you could download entire series with a professional dub and/or sub one episode at the time - as if you were watching them on TV and recording them on a videotape - for a moderate channel subscription fee. I'd buy that, if it would allow me to burn my own DVDs or record them on a harddisk without having limitations regarding what media player (so no WMG!), browser (not IE-only) and which operating system (not Windows PC-only) I use, or whether I have a high-end system or not. A fast internet connection would be the most important, and ought to be the only real limitation.

Frankly, a lot of the problems the music/home entertainment industry have today seems to be caused by their own incompetent use of the internet as a distribution medium...there's a reason the iTunes store is popular and others are not.

> Frankly, a lot of the problems the music/home
> entertainment industry have today seems to be
> caused by their own incompetent use of the
> internet as a distribution medium...there's a
> reason the iTunes store is popular and others are
> not.

This is basically what I was trying to get at. What I get from what Steve has posted is that, so far, they have three very successful models that work (iTunes, Hulu, Netflix rental and streaming) but they don't earn fast enough so they're considered failures when a lot of the problems with people gravitating to pirate content could be resolved if they put in the effort.

To my view, it's not so much that people think that everything on the net should be free, it's they they don't think they should have to pay too much if they have the cash. I mean, how do you explain XBox Live and PSN? Shouldn't that be a colossal failure? You have to subscribe to play games with people over the internet on a set top box.

Vincent Z. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >XBox Live
>
> I read they closed that. Maybe in Japan, where the
> X-Box is more or less dead. Modern consoles don't
> interest me.

QuoteAnd if I said I had an MBA in business would you believe me? GVSU has a pretty good program you know.

It has nothing to do with believing you or not. I'm just curious as to what you're basing your absolute certainty on in the manner that anyone should run their business they way you propose? You do this often so I figured you must have some basis other than "because I think so".
-Mason

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthewalt &quot;I actually kinda LIKE that approach! You know: let's make a TOY. Remember those? Products designed to be played with without breaking? DO YOU REMEMBER, LOVE?!&quot;

I made the mistake of ordering the first domestic set of Linebarrels of Iron, mainly because I base some of my purchases on what I see is popular in stuff like Dengeki Hobby and Hobby Japan, and it had interesting mecha designs. Ah well.

I may have missed it, but Vincent, do you support the anime industry here? I mean, I know you watch stuff before it's out here...

I think parallels can be drawn with comics, but not necessarily with the rise and fall of the speculative market. From the article, besides the major concern about pay scale, it seems like a huge problem is the insular nature of anime... lots of "in-jokes" and pandering to the hardcore fans, and less growth in attracting new, presumably younger, fans. US superhero comics have a similar issue, in the die hard comic book fans demand tight continuity and references to things that happened years and years ago... as creators try to pander to that, they make some comics almost inaccessible to new readers. Look at DC and the endless Crises that they've had, and how both large comics publishers have these tie ins that make sure that you have to read multiple titles that cross over with each other every few months. There is little to no youth movement in comics, which means that over time, the fanbase dwindles.

The problems people are saying about accessibility are true here too... how many kids wander into comic shops, and then how easy is it for them to find something to read even if they do wander in? Contrast that with the rise in popularity of manga, where the stories are self-contained within a series and they're available in the local bookstore.

And price. 3 to 4 bucks for < 20 pages that can be read in 5 minutes can't compare to something like videogames, or even to the price of domestic manga.

Hey, I'll admit that I'm a sucker for anime... ever since I watched, untranslated, the original Mobile Suit Gundam in Daiei in Hawaii, and then got hooked on the toys (I remember they also showed Robocon). So I enjoy self-referential stuff like Sgt. Frog and Godanner, and I have a soft spot for kid stuff like shonen jump series. And I'm buying the Amazon-exclusive, pricey, same-release-date-as-Japan Gundam Unicorn Blu Ray. So I hope that things can recover.

"I may have missed it, but Vincent, do you support the anime industry here? I mean, I know you watch stuff before it's out here..."

Very much yes. I'd take a new photo of my DVD collection but it's in a box right now.

"I made the mistake of ordering the first domestic set of Linebarrels of Iron, mainly because I base some of my purchases on what I see is popular in stuff like Dengeki Hobby and Hobby Japan, and it had interesting mecha designs. Ah well."

See what I mean.

"lots of "in-jokes" and pandering to the hardcore fans, and less growth in attracting new, presumably younger, fans."

True, but guess which shows are selling more of in Japan?

Think of it this way. Who is it better to market to, the western anime fan who while praising a show, doesn't put their money where their mouth when that said show is released to the western market so the companies get no money OR the Japanese otaku who is willing pay for that DVD/BD of a show that's $60-70 a disc for 2-3 episodes because that person shows their support?

--------------------------------------------------------------

I asked if I have "Time For L-Gaim" but I got "No Reply From The Wind".

I'll keep saying it. It's because moe and fanservice is the dominant thing, you'll use those as sa scapegoat to why the anime industry has problems, ignoring the fact that those very things have been around for decades, you just didn't know or notice them.

--------------------------------------------------------------

I asked if I have "Time For L-Gaim" but I got "No Reply From The Wind".

Aaaaaaaaaaand we've lost him again ladies and gentlemen. Vincent, you have once again taken this valid thread with pertinent discussion and turned it into a moe only discussion. Again, please stop.
-Mason

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matthewalt &quot;I actually kinda LIKE that approach! You know: let's make a TOY. Remember those? Products designed to be played with without breaking? DO YOU REMEMBER, LOVE?!&quot;

The industry had a much better standing in the US, years ago, when many mom n' pop video stores existed, and employees were kept busy putting those little "Japanimation" dot shaped stickers on all the tapes, so's you'd KNOW where your entertainment was coming from.

Now those clerks are laid off, due to lack of good product coming over, and the aisles are nearly empty. So sad.

It's a combination of a lack of series that are marketable here in the US, and the fact that most who want a show can now see it via bittorrent fansubbed a week after it's aired in Japan and thus don't have to wait for a domestic DVD release.

I don't want the studios to make stuff for western tastes because it ends up being stuff like Afro Samurai, Speed Grapher or that upcoming Wolverine anime. Batman Gotham Knight was decent though.

I'm perfectly fine with moeblob schoolgirls talking about nothing.

And anime the references other anime doesn't make it inherently bad.

Part of the genius of Lucky Star was the character Kagami (purple hair in pigtails) having no idea what Konata (blue hair) talks about half the time. You the view could be one of those two characters and still find it funny and relatable.

You don't have to like the new stuff to be a fan of anime. I'm reliving my 16-bit era video gaming youth because I'm really not into the type of games made today but I at least accept the changes of today because I have a back catalog of older stuff I enjoy. Makes sense?

--------------------------------------------------------------

I asked if I have "Time For L-Gaim" but I got "No Reply From The Wind".