2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actor

February 20th, 2014

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like last year, this category is not truly competitive with one nominee way out ahead according to experts. And also like last year, I'm supporting an underdog. (In fact, I'm cheering for two underdogs.)

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting.)

Christian Bale for American HustleTomatometer Score:93% PositiveMovie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe and One SAGsMovie's Previous Major Wins: One SAGActor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, Three SAG, and One Independent Spirit AwardActor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One SAG, and One Independent Spirit Award Notes:Christian Bale recently won an Oscar and he hasn't won an individual major award yet (he did pick up the SAG for Best Ensemble). These two facts make it impossible to not conclude he is a long shot for the Oscar this year.

Bruce Dern for NebraskaTomatometer Score:92% PositiveMovie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe, SAG, and Independent Spirit AwardMovie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar and Two Golden GlobesActor's Previous Major Wins: NoneNotes: While I don't think Bruce Dern will win, he's my sentimental favorite this year. He has earned three major Awards Season nominations, but so far he is zero for two. He only has one previous Oscar nomination in his career, and that was 35 years ago, so it is unlikely voters will give him the win to make up for previous losses. As much as I would like him to win, the evidence suggests he won't.

Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall StreetTomatometer Score:77% PositiveMovie's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden GlobeMovie's Previous Major Wins: NoneActor's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, One Golden Globe, and Eight SAGsActor's Previous Major Wins: One Golden GlobeNotes:Leonardo DiCaprio will win an Oscar, but not this year. It's getting to the point where the number of major nominations he's earned and the number of times he's gone home empty-handed is an issue. I fear he will win his first Oscar for a sub-standard movie, because voters will be trying to make up for past mistakes.