Everybody is welcome, this blog is highly political, it represents my views, wishes and dreams. It will contain topics about culture, politics, E.U. issues, social comments and everything else that I find the need to share and pass on, from the country I come from originally (Greece) to the country I found my home (Ireland),Europe and the world.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Scenarios of a British exit from the EU.

During the past few months
certain debates have gained momentum in Europe. Catalonia seceding from Spain,
Scotland from the UK and the UK leaving from he EU altogether.

The United Kingdom has had an uneasy
relationship with Europe ever since the creation of the European Communities.
To them, Europe should never proceed to a full political union, they prefer to
keep things as they are and keep the EU just a large market.

I guess the interests of the political
and leading economic elites are better served if things remain as such. Britain
outside the EU could do well, in fact if any member state decided to leave
would not be the end of the world for them. But are the citizens interests best
served in the EU or outside?

Britain always wanted to
safeguard the interests of the City of London and its financial services sector. They
have invested hugely in creating the sector that dominates their economy and
allowing it to be subdued to any interference from outside could prove
costly.

But they did reform their economy
in the past to the detriment of the ordinary workers and their unions. It
happened during the "Thatcherite" years when Britain's financial
sector was established and the country's economy shifted dramatically.

Then the ordinary workers
suffered and the country went through some very difficult years socially and
financially. So why can't they do it again? Is it because the rights or
interests of the workers are not as important as those of the Bankers? Is
protecting the banks and ensuring the favor of the markets far more important
than having access to the European Single Market and influencing European
affairs?

Of course it is not about only
protecting the financial sector of the City of London. It is also a reflection of different mentalities or a cultural issue. The British elite and the press always believed that
Britain should remain outside a European "superstate" and pursue a
more global economic, political and cultural influence or even dominion,
through their cooperation with the US and the Commonwealth. That is why the majority of the British press was not very friendly to the European project for many years now.

The question is, will the other
Commonwealth countries be willing to always be part of this "British"
club? India for example has grand aspirations of its own. And what about the
other aspirations of the British "euro-sceptics" for their country, that
want to be just like Norway and Switzerland?

Norway is an oil rich country but
is also part of the EEA (European Economic Area) having access to the European
single Market without being an EU member. It is through all the treaties it has
signed to be part of EEA, three quarters member of EU. They have to
follow and adopt most of EU legislation and even pay into the EU's budget.

Oslo gives around €350m annually
to fund capital projects in the newest EU states like Poland and Romania. They
recently helped build a smart new maritime museum in Gdansk, Poland.

But they do not have a voice in
the EU, as they do not have a seat in the EU Parliament. Of course being a rich
country very few bother or complain about it. But if Britain left the EU, they
would lose their seats too and they would also have to find alternative ways to
deal with the rest of Europe.

They would most probably seek to
remain in the EU Single Market as Norway or even Switzerland have done. It would be certainly be catastrophic if they
chose to leave the EU totally and not be even part of the EEA/EFTA. In theory they would do so, only to cut the ties
totally with the rest of Europe, a move that would be unwise.

But unlike Norway, Britain is a
large country. And they do not have the resources that Norway has.
Can such an important country just follow regulation that has been decided
elsewhere but have no chance of influencing? If Britain wants to play a far more
important role in the world politics and economy, can they lose their voice and
influence in the continent on their doorstep? How can they assert themselves in
the rest of the world if they ignore Europe?

And what will happen if Scotland decides
to leave the UK too and join the EU as an independent state? Then the oil in
the North Sea will most likely be claimed by the newly formed Scottish state.
Can the United Kingdom adapt to all these changes at once?

Even their relationship with
Ireland will change. The two countries have signed numerous agreements that have
made the two countries very close partners. The Common Travel Area, the Good
Friday Agreement and many others between the two countries could be forced to be
revisited.

That would make it more awkward
for Ireland to be fully integrated into a more federal EU and keep intact its agreements
with Britain. Because of the Common Travel Area, there are no borders between
the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Irish citizens also do not
require passports to travel to the UK, just like in the Schengen Agreement
Area.

If Britain withdraws from the EU
that will mean that Ireland can never join the Schengen unless it agrees to
reinstall its borders with Northern Ireland; something that no side would want.
And if Britain decides to withdraw totally from the EU and the EEA or EFTA, this
situation could become even more complicated.

The people of Northern Ireland
can have under the Good Friday Agreement any nationality they want (Irish or
British) and hold any of the two, or both passports. If the UK leaves the EU
and decides that it does not want to be part of EEA and Schengen like Norway
has, will the N. Irish people chose to keep their British passports or rush to get an
Irish one? Can this have an effect in the change of status quo in Northern
Ireland?

Ireland will have to rethink its
relationship with the EU too, but I do not think that it has much choice. Most
multinational companies that have settled in the country have done so because
Ireland is an EU member and an English speaking country. The multinational
companies want to have access to the EU Market, plus enjoying the benefits of
Ireland's lower corporate tax rates.

Should Ireland be forced to leave the EU
too after the UK, it won't have the above advantage.

Britain is one of the most
important business partners of Ireland. Britain is Ireland's biggest export
market, while Ireland is Britain's 5th biggest export market. Most British
retail companies have also branches in the Republic of Ireland and vice versa.
A complete British withdrawal from the Single Market would be awkward for
both sides.

So the UK has two options,
either to join EEA or stay in the EU for good. By staying in the EEA they will lose their influence in Europe and they will allow France and Germany to
fulfill their vision for the continent. The British will still have to abide to 3/4 of EU law but they
will have no voice or no influence on it. This situation in my opinion is not
ideal if you wish to have a greater say and influence in the world. You still
have to follow EU law that was decided by any other country in Europe, but not
you.

Preferably I would like them to
stay in but become more active, committed and leading members of EU. They can
achieve far more if they share the lead of the Union than being increasingly
isolated in Europe. If only they could understand that and see that instead of
always being the awkward member, they have more to gain if they became an
active one.

Europe needs Britain too and perhaps might eventually make it easier for
them to feel more comfortable in the Union. A bit more cherry picking like the
Swiss are doing and they will be happier. The truth is that neither Switzerland
nor the EU are happy with their bilateral relations and both seek a revision.
The EU is looking to corner Switzerland and pull it closer, while the Swiss are
not happy with the lack of representation of their interests.

They always rely
on Britain in representing their interests in the EU, as they both have a large
financial services industry. If Britain also leaves, will this alliance last
and who will represent those two countries then?

How can we build a functioning
union if every state picks only what suits them and opts out from what it doesn’t?
There will be no "union" if this happens, we will have to revert back
to EEA or EFTA . Many "euro-skeptics" of course will be delighted for
this, but not me. I want to have a vote on what is being decided for me on a
European level, I do not want to end up being a Norwegian or an
Icelander.

And if the UK is allowed to get
all the opt outs and still remain in the union, then why not every country
do the same and only accept laws that do not interfere with their sovereignty?
But if you want to keep your sovereignty then why join a union in the first
place! I do not want a free trade agreement only because there will be no European
Parliament (EP) and the laws of the Single Market will be decided for me, but without me.

In the end of the day you can not keep them in by
force and it is becoming annoying for everyone to have one country constantly
complaining and moaning about everything. Perhaps we should let them be out for a while.
Sometimes when we wish for something for too long, when we eventually get it we
realize it was not what we wanted in the first place!

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Petition: 2 ευρώ νόμισμα με τον Μ. Αλέξανδρο.

About Me

I am working full time in Ireland's semi-public sector. Recently I completed my Journalism studies (BA Hons) in DBS. Writing about politics and social issues, as well as historic facts is my passion. I want to change the way people think and become more active politically and socially. Do not feel very comfortable with idle people, people with no interests or opinion.

I am contributing to many other websites and on-line magazines, like the OVI Magazine, an English speaking online site from Finland. (http://www.ovimagazine.com/). Also the OneEurope website, a pro-European platform based in London, UK. They are trying to be a hub for information about organized European civil
action online and independent journalism from a European perspective. (http://one-europe.info/). I often debate in the Debating Europe website, an independent NGO about European politics ( http://www.debatingeurope.eu/). And finally, I have also cooperated with Newrop Magazine, a French/Dutch/German platform for European politics and think tank. (http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/).

Recently I started blogging for the euronews' blog, Generation Y. You may read my first article for them here.

If you are into politics, Europe, European history, culture and heritage, European social issues and economics but from a citizen's point of view you may like this blog. What I am trying to do is not impress you with my knowledge of economics. I am not an economist. Rather present you with thoughts, ideas and analyze European politics as any ordinary citizen would do.

I am trying to inspire you to become more active or even understand a bit more about some European, Irish and Greek political realities. Hope you enjoy!!