Monday, February 1, 2016

Five Possible Scenarios for Resolution of Dispute over Presidency in Tatarstan

Paul
Goble

Staunton, February 1 – One issue
that has been bubbling just below the surface for the last two months in Russia
is the fate of the office of the presidency of the Republic of Tatarstan.Russian law required that Kazan abolish this
title as of January 1, although Vladimir Putin has said that it is up to the people
of Tatarstan to decide.

For the last 31 days, Tatarstan has
remained in violation of the Russian law, a situation that has become more
critical both because Kazan has refused to break with Turkey as Moscow has
demanded and perhaps even more important because other non-Russian republics
are watching to see what happens there as a measure of where federalism in
Russia may be heading.

At present, no one knows exactly how
this conflict will play out, but the editors of Kazan’s Business Online portal
have suggested five possible scenarios, and officials and activists in Kazan,
Moscow and in the non-Russian republics are watching which of these will take
place (business-gazeta.ru/print/148387/
and asiarussia.ru/articles/11008/).

The
first scenario would see both Moscow and Kazan simply kicking the issue down
the road, delaying any change until the current treaty between the two on the
delimitation of powers runs out in mid-2017 or until 2020 when the current term
of the incumbent Tatarstan president ends.

That
would in principle require a change in both Russian legislation and Tatar
legislation, unless the two are prepared to continue to live with one side in
violation of the other. But at present, the Kazan resource says there are no
indications that either Russian or Tatarstan legislators are preparing such
bills.

The
second scenario would be one of direct confrontation. Moscow will at some point
demand that Tatarstan obey, and Tatarstan will say no and appeal to the Russian
Constitutional Court.That is the
direction Kazan has indicated it will go and Sergey Shakhray, one of the
authors of the Russian basic law says that Kazan is in the right in this case.

But
of course under Russian conditions, that is no guarantee that Kazan will win
the case. However, if Kazan is certain that it is right and refuses to budge
even after a court ruling against it, Moscow’s reaction “could be still more
harsh,” triggering nationalist responses not only in that Middle Volga republic
but around the periphery of the Russian Federation.

The
third would involve a complete capitulation by Tatarstan.That would end this dispute, the editors say;
but “this would be a direct hit on the authority of the powers that be in the
republic and whether Moscow wants this or not on the image of the federal
authorities” not only there but elsewhere.

The
fourth scenario, the portal continues, would be the repeal or amendment of the federal
law. “As fantastic as this outcome might seem, it would not mean a loss of face
for Putin.” Not only has he said Tatarstan has the right to make the choice but
“it is not unimportant” that the law in question was signed by Dmitry Medvedev
not by him.

And
the fifth scenario, the one the editors call “the most difficult,” would be one
in which both Moscow and Kazan would make concessions. Under its terms, Moscow
would acknowledge the right of republics like Tatarstan to take such decisions;
and Tatarstan would acknowledge that it has decided on its own not to have a
president in these difficult times.