> And in India? China? Iran? The entire continent of Africa?
> They do have books in those places.

Do they have MP3 players in those places? If not, then this does not mean that the analogy djgreedo pointed at is faulty. A meaningful statistic here would be growth rate, which for digital music was 40% from 2006 to 2007 (for example).

As for e-books (and this is 2009 data, from The Washington Post):

> Latest figures from the Association of American Publishers showed e-book
> sales up 167 percent through May of this year. Printed book sales
> were down 4 percent.

> Adults who claim they read books on polls, is a very different number
> from people who read paper at all.

Ok, if the percentage of US adults who actually read is less than 3/4, then what you said is even less likely to be true, for US (at least), right?

> The move from leisure reading on paper to on screen is just a section
> of the paper-to-pixels transition.

As far as I can see, we are well on our way. Pretty nearly only thing I use paper for these days is packaging material.

> Minors can't even buy ebooks on their own. (There's a twist I haven't seen discussed yet.)

Actually, they can. That the current crop of online shops mostly require credit card payments for each purchase does not mean it's the only way of doing this. You can have an account in a shop, where a parent transfers some amount of allowance, that the teenager then can use in that store.

> And in India? China? Iran? The entire continent of Africa?
> They do have books in those places.

Do they have MP3 players in those places?

They do not (much), which is why MP3s have not replaced tradition, musical-instrument-based music. Which is why ebooks aren't going to replace paper books anytime soon, either.

I suppose books could be compared to vinyl records here, as "a device for recorded creative content" rather than "a device for sharing it"--the equivalent of music performances would be live storytelling. But that's been supplemented by books for hundreds of years, and those aren't going to vanish.

Quote:

> Latest figures from the Association of American Publishers showed e-book
> sales up 167 percent through May of this year. Printed book sales
> were down 4 percent.

I've heard that Paganism is the "fastest growing" religion in North America... because every time they survey for it, a few thousand more admit to it. The numbers almost double every time they collect statistics. "Fast growing" in a fledgling industry is meaningless.

Quote:

> Adults who claim they read books on polls, is a very different number
> from people who read paper at all.

Ok, if the percentage of US adults who actually read is less than 3/4, then what you said is even less likely to be true, for US (at least), right?

I am saying that adults who don't read even one book a year, still read printed material. Because of that, ebooks aren't going to replace the printing industry anytime soon.

Quote:

> The move from leisure reading on paper to on screen is just a section
> of the paper-to-pixels transition.

As far as I can see, we are well on our way. Pretty nearly only thing I use paper for these days is packaging material.

I don't read paper books anymore. I'm at the point of buying new books to scan & convert, because I've got no interest in reading them on paper and they're not available in digital form.

Quote:

> Minors can't even buy ebooks on their own. (There's a twist I haven't seen discussed yet.)

Actually, they can. That the current crop of online shops mostly require credit card payments

You know any that don't?

[/quote]for each purchase does not mean it's the only way of doing this. You can have an account in a shop, where a parent transfers some amount of allowance, that the teenager then can use in that store.[/QUOTE]

A 16-year-old can have a job, and earn a paycheck... but he can't take that paycheck to an ebook store and buy anything without adult intervention. That's going to severely curtain teen use of ebooks. As long as they're an adults-only purchase (or a "let Mom set you up with a special account and a spending limit" purchase), they're not going to be a big part of any teen's life.

Teens can buy books from brick & mortar stores, and they do. They can buy CDs, and they do--and rip them & exchange the files. (Nevermind the darknet; they swap flash drives of songs around among their friends.) They'd do that with the books if it were possible.

-------
I do expect digital books to eventually replace paper. I just don't expect it in the next 20 years; the tech's not that good yet. The change to "mostly ebooks" won't start until the format wars are settled (which doesn't necessarily mean picking a single format) and the readers are (1) inexpensive, (2) easy to use, and (3) durable. (Oh, and until ownership transfer is possible. Until people can donate their used ebooks to the local library or school, there's not going to be any major changes in publishing systems.)

We're just starting to see the end of land-line telephones, as cellphones have gotten cheap enough & useful enough to not bother with a land-line. But the majority of households still use them, and the switch from books to ebooks is bigger than that.

A 16-year-old can have a job, and earn a paycheck... but he can't take that paycheck to an ebook store and buy anything without adult intervention. That's going to severely curtain teen use of ebooks. As long as they're an adults-only purchase (or a "let Mom set you up with a special account and a spending limit" purchase), they're not going to be a big part of any teen's life.

Teens can buy books from brick & mortar stores, and they do. They can buy CDs, and they do--and rip them & exchange the files. (Nevermind the darknet; they swap flash drives of songs around among their friends.) They'd do that with the books if it were possible.

-------

While most teens don't have a Credit card, I think almost any teen with a job is going to have a bank account... That can be easily setup with paypal, which many online retailers will accept. If not that, then most will have a debit card they can use. They have to have some way to get that money back out...

Also, as the book industry continues to mirror the music industry (as much as it can), I think we'll see gift certificates for books pop up much like the iTunes gift cards that can be purchased just about anywhere...

While most teens don't have a Credit card, I think almost any teen with a job is going to have a bank account... That can be easily setup with paypal, which many online retailers will accept. If not that, then most will have a debit card they can use. They have to have some way to get that money back out...

Also, as the book industry continues to mirror the music industry (as much as it can), I think we'll see gift certificates for books pop up much like the iTunes gift cards that can be purchased just about anywhere...

At what age can you open a PayPal account? I seem to recall there being an age limit when I opened my account...

But yeah, the debit card is an almost universal option (at least in the US). At our credit union, you can get a checking account with Visa debit card from the age of 13. Younger kids are limited to savings accounts.

Gift cards/certificates that can be bought in-store would be great. However, I don't see independent ebook stores such as BoB doing that anytime soon. Market penetration just isn't there yet. It should be an easy thing for Barnes and Noble/Fictionwise to implement, though. What would be great is if you can use a regular B&N gift card to purchase books on Fictionwise.

I think that is also part of why the brick and mortars want in on ebooks. Johnny and Suzie Teenybopper can easily get giftcards for their favorite big box bookstore, then buy via the website.

As far as debit cards, I know of a lot of kids who don't have debit cards with their bank accounts, so they don't go nuts and overdraft all the time. I've had a bank account since I was like 4, but I didn't actually get a debit card until I was 19 or so.

And yes, the absolute numbers are still small, even tho that data there is limited to fairly small number of publishers.

re: credit cards.
> You know any that don't?

Yes. In Estonia, most of the e-commerce goes via online banking. Online shops normally have payment links to 2-4 different banks. Then there are so called virtual credit cards - not sure if there are age limitations for those actually, I would guess not. Then the russian www.litres.ru enables you to transfer some arbitrary amount of money to your shop account, so that when you buy a book, you don't need to go through credit card transaction every time.

> The change to "mostly ebooks" won't start until the format wars are settled

Yes. In Estonia, most of the e-commerce goes via online banking. Online shops normally have payment links to 2-4 different banks. Then there are so called virtual credit cards - not sure if there are age limitations for those actually, I would guess not. Then the russian www.litres.ru enables you to transfer some arbitrary amount of money to your shop account, so that when you buy a book, you don't need to go through credit card transaction every time.

I was asking specifically for ebook stores that don't require a credit card, not random online purchase places that might be usable without one. Does the Russian site allow legal minors to have an account? (Can't read Russian; can't check the details.) If it requires a credit card to set up the account, or if the banks that work for it require legal adulthood, then it's not available to minors without adult supervision of their purchases.

I can't think of any English language ebook stores that work without a credit card. (And I don't mean that only English stores count; I just can't look for others.) Most gift cards won't work for online purchases--because the online purchase requires not just card number, but name & address of card account holder. There's a name on the card (usually "gift recipient" or something like that) but no address.

Quote:

> The change to "mostly ebooks" won't start until the format wars are settled

Oh well. That much we can definitely agree on.

And I suspect we're debating minor points & tangents, and mostly agree on the key issues--ebooks aren't available enough or simple enough to break into the same market niche that digital music has managed to exploit.

Okay, works with PayPal... which requires a person be 18. Doesn't technically require a credit card. Neither does Fictionwise, for that matter, but it still boils down to "minors can't buy books here."

Ebooks won't begin to have any ability to replace pbooks in public use until minors have easy access to them... which means either selling them in kiosks in brick-and-mortar stores, or drastically changing how internet commerce works.

Actually, I have never owned a MP3 player device (not much into music). How are they less simple than even current generation of e-book readers?

You very likely typed that message on an MP3 player device. (With a lot of extra features.) One that creates MP3s from CDs.

Ebooks can't be easily created & read on computers by people who own pbooks; there's a much steeper barrier to the switch from pbook to ebook.

Most (pre-packaged?) computers have mp3 player programs pre-installed; they don't have ebook reading programs installed (and that's before we get into the format wars). They certainly don't have ebook *creation* software pre-installed.