2006 Olympic Winter Games

Torino, Italy

10 - 26 February, 2006

Event Reports

Daily Notes
and Idle Musings

For individual event reports follow the links at the
left.

For this event we are trying something
different. Event reports will start out as notes on each
performance taken during the event. These will be posted during
each ice cut (or more frequently, if possible). They will be
short and to the point. Expect only a vague approximation of
complete sentences and proper grammar. Event report will cleaned
up (and photos added) the day after each event.

Saturday, February 25

Friday, February 24

Exhibition Commentary
after the exhibition we will post our commentary. This won't be
a play by play, just a free association of whatever happens.

Ladies Free Skate:

You have to admire Arakawa's dedication and
persistence fore the past 2 years, since she considered retirement in
2004. She soldiered on after a poor season and poor finish after
Worlds last year. She came here with most expecting her to be
amongst the top ladies, but few expecting her to win.

In practice she worked hard, and exuded a confidence
lacking in many of the other ladies. She "won"
all three practices I saw at Palavela, and an elite coach (who would
probably prefer not to be named) said the same thing. Cohen on
the other hand missed several practices and did not seem to really
press herself in the ones where I saw her. Perhaps she had the
need to conserve her leg, which is not 100%, and so I guess she
deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Slutskaya appeared to me in practice to display an
almost fool hearty confidence. I did not see her do one complete
one through; not even to mark her program with all steps and
connecting moves. Mostly she listened to her music, wandered
around the ice, and worked a few elements individually.

Of all three ladies Arakawa presented herself as the
one with her head screwed on the tightest, working the hardest without
a hint of doubt showing.

For me the final result reflects the actual
skating. When Arakawa did not perform her triple-triples, it
appeared as though she had decided (after Cohen had skated) to go for
a clean and beautiful program as a strategic decisions, and a wise one
at that. In the press conference, however, she said that the
decision had nothing to do with Cohen's performance, and that she had
planned to do one, but did not feel secure on the landing of the first
jump, and so did not risk the triple-triple.

For Cohen, things began to fall apart in the warmup
for her group. She did a light workout during the morning
practice, but in the evening, her flip and Lutz deserted her.
She started of with a fall and then two hands down on her first two
elements; but after that she composed herself and finished the
remainder (majority) of the program securely and well skated.
Slutskaya, who skated last, had her share of problems too.
She doubled a triple flip and fell on triple loop.

Based on the numbers alone, Cohen and Slutskaya were statistically
tied (see below), but in the official scoring Cohen edged out
Slutskaya for the silver medal. It can be argued that it should
have been even closer, since the two hands she put down in the flip
seemed to be supporting all her weight and thus met the definition of
a fall, requiring a second 1.0 deduction. But the technical
panel did not see it that way.

While it is questionable whether the marks truly
reflect the appropriate point difference between them, the marks for
Cohen and Slutskaya reasonable illustrate the strengths and weaknesses
of these two program. Cohen had a higher base value for
elements, and landed five triple vs. Slutskaya's four. In
Program Components they were very close. Perhaps even too close
some feel, with the emphasis there that Slutskaya is generally over
marked in Program Components. Finally, another difference
between them was the level of the spins and sequences, with Cohen
getting the advantage of one level (cumulatively) for those
elements. For Slutskaya, spins in the past have been a strength
for her, but in the Free Skate she scores 4 points below Cohen in
spins.

So, as far as I am concerned, this one turned out
exactly as it was skated and no one "wuzrobbed."

Morning Notes:

Today is half a goof off day. We will be posting
a commentary on the Exhibition after it ends this evening. More
on the ladies event and some photos too. Eventually we will edit
and post the ladies press conference audio also.

Here, for now, is our calculation of the top three
places when all 12 judges are used. In this calculation, Cohen
still wins the silver, with a margin of 0.63 points over Slutskaya.
The difference in the scores for Cohen and Slutskaya, however, is not
statistically significant. Within the statistical uncertainty of
the values of the programs they are tied.

If you are of the mind that Cohen got a gift in not
receiving a second deduction for the jump where she put two hands
down, then with the added deduction and using all 12 sets of marks,
Slutskaya wins the silver by 0.37 points. Which mostly shows
that some of the decisions of the technical panel are subjective, and
they can have a critical impact on the results.

Partial results for the Ladies Event when all
12 judges' marks are used.

Place

Skate

Segment

Jumps

Spins

Sequences

Skating

Presentation

Totals

1

ARAKAWA Shizuka

SP

16.90

10.55

8.45

12.08

17.98

65.96

FS

40.40

13.80

8.30

25.16

38.32

125.98

Totals

57.30

24.35

16.75

37.24

56.30

191.94 +/- 0.86

1

1

2

1

2

2

COHEN Sasha

SP

16.06

9.95

9.25

12.28

19.10

66.64

FS

33.60

13.45

8.00

24.44

37.88

116.37

Totals

49.66

23.40

17.25

36.72

56.98

183.01 +/- 0.85

10

3

1

3

1

3

SLUTSKAYA Irina

SP

18.10

11.00

7.20

12.10

18.52

66.92

FS

34.80

13.30

6.00

24.64

37.72

115.46

Totals

52.90

24.30

13.20

36.74

56.24

182.38 +/- 0.89

6

2

5

2

3

Thursday, February 23

Back to work today for me, and so much catching up to
do. Things will get posted in dribs and drabs as we get closer
to show time.

In the practice this morning, the top three ladies did
light workouts, and did not run through complete program.
Nevertheless, they were all business. None of the other ladies
impressed to the point one would expect anyone to break into the top
three in the Free Skating. For Arakawa, Cohen and Slutskaya, any
order of finish for these three is possible. Slutskaya has
reputation, and sentimentality going for her, to wrap her career with
an Olympic medal. Against her is the sentiment that a Russian
sweep of the medals is not desirable. Kimmie Meissner has a good
shot at moving up to fourth, and if she lands two triple triples and
one of the top ladies falls down, she event has a slim chance for the
bronze. But it is only slim, since she is currently over 7
points behind the leaders. Emily Hughes should also remaining
the top ten (she currently sits 7th, nearly 10 points back).

In the Free Skate, Cohen skates first of the top three
ladies, so she will have to base her decision to attempt a
triple-triple without the benefit of knowing what the others have
done. Arakawa skates after Cohen and Slutskaya skates
last. If it is a close competition, Slutskaya has the benefit of
knowing whether she needs to pull out all the stops and go for the
triple-triples to win.

Partial results for the Ladies Short Program when all
12 judges' marks are used.

Place

Skater

Jumps

Spins

Sequences

Skating

Presentation

Total

1.

Irina Slutskaya

18.10

10.98

7.21

12.07

18.53

66.90+/- 0.84

3

1

3

3

2

1

2.

Sasha Cohen

16.09

9.91

9.33

12.32

19.15

66.81+/- 0.77

8

3

1

1

1

2

3.

Shizuka Arakawa

16.93

10.53

8.46

12.10

17.98

66.00+/- 0.79

5

2

2

2

3

3

In this calculation, Irina has a 0.09 lead instead of
trailing by 0.03 points. The separation of the skaters remains
less than 1 point.

When we calculate the scores from each judge we find,
Cohen has 1st through 3rd place ordinals, Slutskaya 1st through 4th,
and Arakawa, 1st through 3rd. Cohen and Slutskaya each have five
first place ordinals, and one judge has them tied for first.
Arakawa has one first place ordinal.

Wednesday, February 22

Some brief comments on the ladies event follows, and
then I am playing hooky for the rest of the day. Ladies event
finishes tomorrow evening.

Coming into the competition, we all have our
expectations where each of the top ladies might place. For the
top ladies, however, their expectations are the same. To skate
to win, and that is what they did in the Short Program.

After the Short, Cohen, Slutskaya and Arakawa find
themselves in a virtual tie for first place, with 0.71 points between
them. This is no different from the 6.0 system, however, where
the first three skaters after the Short Program were always in a
virtual tie for first place, and if any of those three won the Free
Skate they would win the event.

The difference now is that the top three after the
Short Program only sometimes may be in a virtual tie (as is the case
in this event); and more importantly, one could lose the Free Skate
and still win the event. But don't expect these three ladies to
do anything but skate to win tomorrow.

Fumie Sugurie is mathematically in range for a medal,
but her chances are extremely slim. Caroliina Kostner, another
favorite coming into the games, took herself out of the running with a
mediocre skate in the Short Program. The 2005 bronze medalist
has not had a good season, and looked overwhelmed in practice here.

In the Short Program, my take on it was that Slutskaya
and Arakawa both were superior to Cohen in the technical aspects of
the skating, while Cohen and Arakawa were superior to Slutskaya in
presentation and artistic appeal. The judges saw it more or less
the same way and the result is near equivalent points the skaters now
have going into the Free Skate.

Another reason for the virtual tie is the way the
judges use the marks, and the difficulty the system has in separating
the skaters among the top group (or middle and bottom groups for that
matter). In the Short Program, all three ladies are doing essentially
the same elements. The judges play it close to the vest on GoEs,
sticking mainly to -1 through +1, and then for the program components,
the judges tend to mark consecutive skaters only 0.25 points apart in
Program Components. The latter practice, limits the difference
in PC points to just 1.0 per skater total in the Short Program.
The result of all this is that the design of the system and the
marking practices of the judges conspire to insure three good skaters
will always tend to be within a point or two of each other.

In any event, the Free Skate will tell the tale.
Cohens will have to rack up the points big time in Program Components
to win, if the other two ladies skate clean and land one or two
triple-triple jumps. Both Slutskaya and Arawawa are capable of
landing two of these potent weapons. Cohen potentially can
overcome a deficit of one triple-triple by pulling ahead of the other
two ladies by 0.5 points in each PC -- a tall order but not
impossible. To overcome a deficit of two triple-triples she will
need a full point in each PC over her rivals, and that is extremely
unlikely to happen.

Tuesday, February 21

So far this has not been a good day:

After getting 2 1/2 hours sleep I dragged myself to
ladies practice (6:30 start time) only to find the busses to the arena
were not running. Then limped a mile on foot from the main press
center to the arena, only to find that even though the press center
there was open, the security screening checkpoint was not. Found
another way into the arena and arrived in time to see Kimmie leaving
the ice at the end of her practice. Then remembered I left my
keys back at the security checkpoint at the main press center.
So I schlepped back there and returned in time for the third ladies
practice.

Emily Hughes skater her practice and had a
respectable, morning. Irinia showed up too, but as in the
previous practices, didn't do much, and did not run through her
program. Basically she has been just listening to her music when
it is played. Sasha did not show up for practice.

Arakawa had a good practice, but Kostner did
not. Carolina wiped up the ice working her jump combination,
though she landed it (barely) during her run through.

Only three ladies look ready to rumble. I stick
with my prediction of yesterday, though I have to say, Arakawa has an
unmistakable I-am-here-to-win attitude. Irina looks confident,
while Sasha remains inscrutable.

And then there is Voktoria Volchkova. who withdrew
before she arrived here, due to an infected blister on her hand.
Now that sounds like a really dedicated athlete, dropping out of the
Olympics due to a blister on her hand.

Belbin & Agosto placed only fourth in the Free
Dance, but it was enough to barely hold on to the silver medal.
It was the first U.S. Olympic medal in Ice Dance in 30 years.
Navka & Ksotomarov keep the Russian sweep on track. Now the
ball is in Slutskaya's court. At the post-event press
conference, Navka said they most likely will not do Worlds. So
this is probably it for this couple in ISU competition.

The spread of the marks, and the close scores have
hinted that some of the dance results would be determined by the
random selection of the judges. We have been tracking this by
calculating the results from the official marks, using all the
judges. In the overall results, there were four pairs of couples
within a few tenths of a point of each other.; razor thin margins for
a mathematically unstable system such at the current judging system.

When the Dance
Results Using All Judges is calculated it is found two couples
swap places, the couples in 16th and 17th place. Since it
doesn't affect the medals, no one is likely to care, but it
illustrates that a ticking time bomb exits in the system waiting to go
off for some poor medalists at some time in the future, as it
must. The only unknown is when.

In the Free Dance alone, the top five couples all
received at least one first place mark from the jjudges. The
spread in ordinals was also unusually large for a championships event,
with a spread of up to seven places for the top couples. No
couple received a majority of first place marks. From beginning
to end, for all three dances the judges could not agree on anything
more than who were the best couples and who were the worst.

Who's watching:

Based on visits to this site, the greatest interest so
far has been in the Dance event. Then the pairs, and last the
men. That marches up with the attendance in the arena.
Around 6100 were on hand for the three dances (nearly a full house),
while the men's event drew the smallest audience, with less than 5000
present. SO far we have been getting visits from the three
corners of the world. Apparently noon in South America is
interested in figure skating.

Where have the pictures gone:

Keeping up proves more and more difficult as time goes
on. The point has been reached where I WANT TO GO HOME, is a
common feeling in the trenches. When we fall behind, the first
thing to go is the pictures.

Then there are the press handlers (a.k.a. the press
Nazis) to deal with. At most venues and for most sports it
is actually fairly easy going, but not this event at this venue.

When speed skating is going at this arena it is one
big party. When figure skating is on, the press Nazis are out in
full force with their rules, rules rules, that no other sport/venue
cares about. In the press area, only photographers can take
photos. No shooting practice, no shooting awards ceremonies, no
shootingpress conferences if you are not a photographer. No cell
phone cameras, no point and shoot cameras, no tourist pictures.
Nothing!. Go anywhere else it is ok, but not where the writers
sit. And no candy or snacks, either. Only water is
permitted.

At least prisoners get bread to go with their water.

Monday, February 20

Free dance starts in 45 minutes. No word on
Dubreuil & Lauzon. It appears they will try and skate the
warmup and decide then if they can continue with the competition.

Practice:

The practice for the top group of dancers went well
this morning for all of them. It should be a good final.
The ladies practice followed later in the morning and afternoon.
We haven't attended the practices religiously, but based on what has
been seen so far it looks like Slutskaya and Cohen competing for first
and second, and Arakawa and Kostner for third and fourth. Right
now our prediction is Slutskaya, Cohen, Arakawa.

Interruptions:

We have written recently on the question of what is an
interruption. Know we know a little better. In the OD
Faiella & Scalli fell in the middle of a step sequence. They
gave up on the element and skated hand in hand to then end of the ice
and resumed the program. For this they received a deduction for
an interruption. That would tend to confirm what many believe,
that the time Zhang & Zhang spent meandering around the ice after
the fall in the free skate should have been subject to a deduction for
an interruption.

Dance:

The dance event was unfolding exactly according to
plan. Denkova & Satviski and Dorbiazko & Vanagas, who
did not receive any first place marks in the CD, seemed poised to drop
in the OD, and did. The remaining top teams were expected to
remain tightly clustered, and were. And then Marie-France
Dubreuil went flying off Patrice Lauzon's arm in a rotational lift,
and Maurizio Margaglio dropped Barbara Fusar Poli, who then looked
like she was ready to drop him. Both these teams, have
effectively taken themselves out of the running for a medal.

Five teams remain in the hunt for a medal, with the
Russians and American battling it out for the gold and silver, and the
Ukrainians, French and Bulgarians fighting for the bronze.

Being a little behind today, it may take a while to
post the calculation of the results when all judges are used, but here
is the answer. In the OD, seven of twenty-four places change
(about a third) when marks from all judges are used.

Patrice Lauzon practiced alone, this morning, while
his partner, Marie-France Dubreuil deals with the injury to her right
hip/leg whish she sustained in the OD. Dubreuil hit the ice hard
after she went flying off his arm in the closing rotational lift of
their program.. It is unknown if
they will be able to perform tonight. As of this morning she cannot support weight on
her right leg.

Sunday, February 19

Snowing in the city for the first time since we got
here! Some events in the mountains have been cancelled.
Strange and bizarre sounds and shrieks are coming from the TV monitors
in the press center. A sure sign that curling is on!

Ladies practice:

So far Emily Hughes has won the practice. She
did a complete run through and landed everything. She was
working hard and looking decent. She was the only U.S. lady on
the ice. The Russians have yet to go. Kostner struggled
with her jumps. Arakawa had an ok practice with some jump
issues. Ando and Sugurie were inconsistent. Mrs.
Zimmermann appeared fabulous as usual but has developed a killer wrap
since last I saw her skate.

Last warmup: Cupcake marked her program, but no
jumps. Not much to gauge her situation by. Irina hardly
even marked her program -- even less to gauge her condition by.

Original Dance:

Original Dance is tonight ad we will see if our
prediction holds true. Which of our many predictions you
ask? The one where the top dance teams are kept close and the
final decision is made in the Free Dance. For the ordinals for
the individual judges, though, it looks like Drobizko & Vanagas
are out of it. None of the judges had them as a top five
pick. Further, Denkova & Staviski did not have any first
place marks, and when all judges are used they are in fourth place, so
we expect them to drop also in the last two dances.

At this point it looks like the Italians and the
Russians for the top two spots, then the rest to fight for the
bronze. Mauritzio Margaglio is a dance technical specialist, so
of all the teams, the Italians are in the best position to present a
COP-friendly program, giving them an edge over Navka &
Kostomarov. In the press conference after the CD, Navka was
outgoing, but Kostomarov was very low key, and clearly unhappy about
the turn of events in the CD. I guess he has realized, they are
not going to hand them the gold on a platter. Add to that the persistent
rumors, that the ISU does not want a Russian sweep of the gold medals,
and I would start betting on Fusar Poli & Margaglio.

Post time is 20:00, local.

Compulsory Dance:

Dance CD calculated using all 12 judge (revised) - Random selection
of the judges was a significant factor in the results of the
Compulsory Dance. Six places are different when
all marks are used. Four of these are places 3 through
6. Belbin & Agosto place fifth
when all marks are used using a single trimmed mean, and are tied for
fourth when a straight average is used. One other, bizarre
statistical property of the Compulsory dance is that not one of the
twenty-four placements was statistically significant; that is, for any
two consecutive placements, the spread of the judges marks was in all
cases much larger than the point difference between the skaters.
Another way to put it, is that though the results identify the top
skaters, the bottom skaters and the middle skaters, the specific
placement of any skater is open to question for every skater in the
event.

At this rate, there is a good chance
at least one of the dance medals will be decided by the random choice
of the judges, and not the skating! Something we predicted could
happen in 2004 when we first wrote about this subject in the New York
Times.

Saturday, February 18

Today is an off day for skating. I am spending
the day in town. Come back tomorrow (Sunday) for the latest
skating news from Torino.

In the Dance event, the scores are so close, the
chance that an Ice Dance medal will be selected by the random choice
of the judges is extremely high. Look out for potential
fireworks here.

Friday, February 17

First Dance report goes up around 20:00 local time. Then at
21:20 and 22:10. My knowledge of Compulsory dance is
limited. Keep your expectations low!

Evgeni Plushenko:

Several hours after the Men's Free Skating, where he won the gold
medal, a car taking Evgeni Plushenko to the Milan
airport was involved in an accident in dense fog early Friday
morning. No one was hurt in the chain-reaction collision, said Ari
Zakarian, Plushenko's agent. There were no further details about the
accident.

Ice Dancing:

Tonight the dance competition begins with the
Compulsory Dance (Ravensburger Waltz). There is a crowded field
looking for places on the podium. Teams to watch are (in
alphabetical order):

Tanith Belbin & Benjamin Agosto

Isabelle Delobel & Olivier Schoenfelder

Albena Denkova & Maxim Staviski

Margarita Dorbiazko & Povilas Vanagas

Barbara Fusar Poli & Maurizio Margaglio

Elena Grushina & Ruslan Goncharov

Tatiana Navka & Roman Kostomarov

We expect the competition to remain tight through the
Original Dance, and then the medal to be decided in the Free Dance.

Emily Hughes:

Emily Hughes is now in town. She attended the
Men's final, and at noon gave a press conference. She is the
center of attention, largely because she has replaced Michelle Kwan,
and expectations placed on her as the sister of 2002 gold medalist
Sarah Hughes. The harsh reality is, where it not for these two
factors, no one would much care. Although strange things can
happen in the Olympics, the odds are the best she can hope for is to
break into the top 10.

The dust has settled on the Men's event, and Russia is
now 2 for 2 on the road to sweep the figure skating medals.
Final attendance figure for the Men's final was 6,095.

Evgeni Plushenko certainly deserved his gold medal
last night. He skated the cleanest and with the most confidence
of any of the men. He is far and way the best technician among
the men. Of all the men with quads, he has held on to them the
longest and with most consistency. So many of the other men,
once they land a quad, seem only able to hold on to it for about 18-24
months, then they seem to go away, and only visit the skaters occasionally.

But what about those pesky Program Components.
All 8s for the winner??? Skating skills, yes. The boy can
skate! But 8s for transitions? One judge had it near right
going down to 6.25. Plushenko's program starts with SIX jump
elements in a row. All stroking and crossovers between.
That alone limits Transitions to the upper 6s or a 7, and only if the
rest of the program was 100% transitions and only of those
transitions were all difficult and of good quality -- which was not
the case.

Plushenko, of course, was not unique in having his
Transitions mark questionably connected to reality. Many of the
men spend the first 1/3 of their program on jump elements, with no
transitions (other than the opening posing). None of these guys
should get a transition mark above the 6s.

Then there was Van Der Perrin, who skates with speed
and energy and gets the crowd going, but for Transitions -
nothing. His Transitions mark should be in the toilet most the
time. But no. Like everyone else his marks track the
element scores and the other Program Component scores whether he
deserves it or not.

On the other hand, you had Shawn Sawyer and Matthew
Savoie who had transitions form begging to end, nicely done.
There Transitions marks don't reflect that strength at all.

Getting back to Plushenko. Performance.
Yes, well done, good marks deserved here for sure.

Choreography, however, a joke. I don't know why
this is judges at all. It's like deciding the score of a
football game by judging the teams play book. But it is judges,
and Plushenko's choreography? Where it not for his
technical skill, his programs would put me into a coma they are so
boring and so unrelated to the music, with wilds gestures that
contribute nothing to the "story" (purpose of the program).

Which leads us to interpretation. What the heck
did his Short Program have to do with Tosca; either the
story or the mood of the music? And was their any shred of a
connection of the free skate to The Godfather? Not for
me. It was just so much background music to which he flails his
arms in ways that offer nothing other than the demonstration he can
keep his balance while convulsing down the ice.

Poor Johnny Weir. He didn't skate to win, and so
he didn't. It usually turns out that way with that
approach. The difference for him, was the miss on triple Axel
(that was called a double), the missing jump element and just one jump
combination. He would have gotten the bronze if he had just
skated his program; no quad required. Weir and his coach, Priscilla Hill, also missed their bus getting to the arena, but
afterwards he said it was not a factor in the results. Bottom
line, he just had a lousy skate.

Evan Lysacek had a strong Free Skate and ended up
fourth overall. While Weir missed the podium by freaking in the
long, Lysacek missed the podium by freaking in short. Jeffrey
Buttle, who also under performed in the Short Program, was able to
move up for the bronze medal by attacking in the Free Skate. In
opposite ways, Buttle and Weir were testaments to the cliché,
"no guts, no glory." U.S. medal hopes in figure
skating are now reduced to two.

Consistency in both programs (third in the short,
fourth in the long) got Stephane Lambiel onto the podium where he wept
like baby through the medal ceremony. He was 27 points back
behind Plushenko, which illustrates how crushing a victory Plushenko
delivered.

Thursday, February 16

Tourist Photo from the Cathedral.

Men's event starts in a few hours. Johnny Weir
had a good practice today, while Evan Lysacek looked totally dispirited.
Did not get to see Matt Savoie.

The media rumor mill has it, that Dan Zhang only
suffered a bruised knee in the free skate, and will be able to appear
in the exhibition next week. Who'd have thunk it!

In the Pairs event, the margin of victory for the
bronze medal was just a few tenths of a point. Whenever that is
the case, there is a chance the result is determined by the random
selection of the judges and not the actual skating. In this
competition there were 12 judges, 9 of whom where randomly selected
for calculating the results. Mathematically the best, most
reliable, results is the result calculated using all the judges.
Results calculated using only a subset of the judges will be of lesser
quality and lesser reliability; and when the judges are split in their
opinion of the skating, different combinations of judges can produce
different results. This is a defect in the construction of the
system we have commented upon since use of the system was first
proposed.

A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal published an
article in which a statistician for Yale determined that for all the
possible combinations of nine of the twelve judges, 12% of the choices
result in Pang & Tong winning the bronze medal instead of Shen
& Zhao. This illustrates the risky nature of using random
selection of the judges. In this case, the ISU dodged a bullet,
since the official result from the nine judges selected actually
agrees with the result determined by using all twelve judges.
But it is just a matter of time, before statistically the ISU gets
bitten in the butt by this risky and unfair approach to calculating
results.

To investigate the difference in the official results
and the results using the all the judges we recalculated
the results from the published protocols. In the
calculation, results were determined using all twelve sets of marks in
both the Short Program and Free Skating. The ISU standard
scoring algorithm using a single trimmed mean on the twelve judges was
used. When results are calculated in this way Shen & Zhao
win the bronze medal with a higher margin of victory than the official
results. This says that the three judges eliminated in the
random selection where mainly "Shen & Zhao" judges which
reduced their margin victory, though not enough to deprive them of the
bronze medal.

The basic reason why different subsets of the judges
can give very different results is because the spread in the judges
opinions is very large in the new system. More even than was in
the old system. If we break out the points from each judges, and
the points in each of the five major skill categories this is clearly
seen. Tables of results for the Short
Program show this nicely.

The method of using the Program Component marks to
place the skaters is illustrated by graphing the PC marks against the
order of finish of the skaters in the Short
Program and Free Skating. In both event segments all but two
of the teams are more or less evenly spaced by 0.25 in the PC
marks. These graphs also illustrate how the judges use the five
PC marks as a group to place the skaters. Also, notice in the
graphs how all five PCs marks track together for all the
skaters! These graphs clearly illustrate how the judges misuse
the PC marks.

Wednesday, February 15

Today is an off day for skating competition. The
men's final will take place tomorrow evening, starting at 7PM local
time. Emily Hughes has finally arranged travel to Torino and is
on the way, to replace Michelle Kwan who withdrew on Sunday.

The Men's Short Program press conference was a bit of
a bum's rush, with the skaters in and out with just brief comments,
and the microphones not working. Evgeni Plushenko was prevailed
upon to linger for a few moments longer, though he said little.
It was a rather odd scene, with Plushenko sitting at the microphones
that did not work, and his coach, Alexei Mishin, sitting in the front
row. To every question Mishin answered he (Plushenko) didn't
understand; then, while Plushenko replied in English, Mishin was
talking to him the whole time in Russian. I don't understand Russian,
but it looked like Mishin was trying to tell Plushenko what to say and
Plushenko was ignoring him, and then Mishin was getting annoyed.

Attendance in the Men's Short Program was a little
sparse, with many seats in the second of three seating levels
empty. Official attendance was put at 4,862; well below the
Pairs final, the day before, where a little over 6,000 attended.

Johhny Weir sits in second place, about 10 points
behind Plushenko. The chances of any of the other men catching
Plushenko seems pretty slim. Plushenko will have to wipe up the
ice pretty badly to give up the Gold medal. Weir said he was
considering adding a quad toe loop, depending on whether or not he
woke up looking "like Nick Nolte's mug shot". If he
can get all the way around on the quad, he doesn't have much to lose
in the trying, and if he lands it, it will help secure his chances for
a medal. If Lambiel or Joubert have their quads going in the
final and skate clean, however, they are likely to pass Weir by.
So at this, point Weir is as well positioned as one could hope for
after the Short Program, but the point spread between second through
fourth place is sufficiently narrow he could just as well drop out of
the medals as hold his position.

Evan Lysacek let his nerves get to him and he now
looks out of the running for a medal. He said, "I think I
just got over-excited. I rushed a few things. I wanted to
do well. I think I just wanted it too much." We couldn't
agree more.

Matt Savioe, had a good skate except for the error on
the landing of the triple Lutz. Even if he had landed it
cleanly, however, he still would have been out of medal range.
Savoie is a good example of the way the judges do not distinguish very
well between the marks for elements an the marks for program
components. His program, I thought, was one of the better
programs in terms of performance and artistic expression, yet as is
almost always the case, the Program Components marks track the element
scores, even though his presentation was clearly better than his
technical merit.

One final observation, from the protocols for the
Pairs Free Skate and the Men's Short program.

It has long been commented by many, that the judges
appear to be using the PC marks to place the skaters. Looking at
the scores they give, this really stands out. Basically, the
marks are used so that there is typically 0.25 from one place to the
next. That is, if the first place skater is given an 8.00, the
second place is given 7.75. third place 7.5, and so on down the
line. This is the same approach under the 6.0 system where first
place get 5.9, second place 5.8 third place 5.7, and so on.

If the judges were actually marking to an absolute
standard, taking into account the absolute amount by which one skater
is better or worse than another, the marks should be bunched up
together in places, and should be well separated in other case.
But that is not the what one finds. In the Pairs final there was
an almost perfect trend from first to last, placing the skaters in
0.25 point increments.

The performance of Zhang & Zhang in the Pairs Free
Skate was one of the most courageous performances we have seen in a
long time and is a testament to the Olympic spirit. The
situation, however, was questionably handled by the Referee.
Should a deduction for an interruption been taken? (One
was not.) Should the team have been disqualified? (They
were not.)

This situation is the second example in less than a
month of the ambiguity and uncertainty in the handling of the
interruption deduction; the first being the Oda Free Skate at Four
Continents. The time from the fall until the music was stopped
(we assume by the Referee) surely must be considered an
interruption. Was it 11 seconds or more? Did anyone time
it? Zhang & Zhang's margin of victory for the silver was
nearly 3 points, so even if a deduction was appropriate it would not
have changed the results. Nevertheless, does anyone in the ISU
know what the definition of an interruption is? Is anyone timing
this, or even paying attention to what is going on? It appears
not.

Then there is the handling of the restart. After
the referee stops the clock and talks to the skaters, the skaters have 2 minutes to restart
their program from the point of interruption. The referee is
supposed to blow a whistle. The Referee is supposed to call the
skaters over and talk to them about what will happen next.
Someone is supposed to time the 2 minutes. The announcer usually
is told to announce what it the decision on the restart. None of
this happened. The music stopped. There was a delay.
Then after a while the music started again.
If the time from the stopping of the music to the restart exceeded 2
minutes the team should have been disqualified. The exact official
timing of the stoppage is unknown at this point, but the time stamp on
photos taken during the event show at least 2 1/2 minutes from the
time Hao helped Dan up off the ice to the time they left the boards to
resume the program. The full time, was probably much more than
that. No matter how you slice up the time, it looks like either there should
have been an interruption deduction or a disqualification. Pick
one.

For all the
money spent on technology, a successful competition still comes down
to the officials doing their jobs correctly. There is ample
reason to question whether that was the case here. If the third
and fourth place teams were not also from China, one might expect that
a protest would have been forthcoming in this case.

Monday, February 13

Irina Nechkina (AZE) was removed from the judging
panel for the Ice Dance event due to poor judging performance in
previous competitions. She will be replaced by the alternate
judge, Rolf Pipoh (GER). Nechkina most recently served as a
judge for the Ice Dance event at the 2006 European Championships,
where she judged all three dance segments. Assessments are give
for serious judging errors and/or bias. It is odd this decision
was made after the start of the games and more than two weeks after
the end of the European Championships. Surely it could not have
taken over two weeks to complete the assessment.

Phyo & Hyok have withdrawn from the pairs
event. Phyo fell on a throw jump in practice yesterday an
suffered a contusion (location of bruise not know). This morning
they withdrew from the competition.

The Pairs final is tonight.

In looking over the Short Program protocol I offer a
few observations.

1. -1 for Inoue & Baldwin's throw triple
Axel? Give me a break. Two judges had it at +2. -1
to +2 is a ridiculous spread of opinion. And that's just what it
is. For all the talk of objectivity, it is still just
opinion. Only two judges gave Program Component scores in the
7s. Apparently the judges are in the same mindset as many of the
skaters. This is a Russia/China party, and everyone else can sit
at the children's table.

2. Shen & Zhao ended up with a level 1 on
their death spiral. Zhao did not hold the pivot position for one
revolution, in which case most of the level features do not come into
play. The death spiral level features are:

Difficult variation of entry and/or exit.
(Both counts twice.)

Change of lady’s arm hold (1 revolution in each hold.)

Opposite arm hold of the man (1 revolution in this hold.
In SP, only after 1 revolution in regular hold.)

Change of Lady’s body position. (1 revolution in each
position.) (Not for SP.)

Each full revolution after the first revolution.
(Multiple
credit for each full rotation.)

Performed in both directions. (One
after the other.)

Change of man’s pivot position. (1 revolution in each
position.) (Not for SP.)

Only the features in blue could potentially be
earned in a death spiral with less than one revolution on the first
foot. So if the element is short, not only does the team get a
negative GoE for the element, they also lose on the levels too.

3. There were several cases where a skater put
one or both hands down. Hard. At other competitions this
has received a deduction for a fall. But not here. Why is
it so hard for the ISU to enforce a uniform policy on the decisions of
the Technical Panel? What is being done to rectify this?
Not much it would appear.

4. The second through eighth place teams scored
within 4.5 points of each other; only 7% of the scores. Did
these teams really differ by just 7%. Zhang & Zhang seemed
significantly better than Obertas & Slavnov; by a lot more than
just 7%. Why is the system incapable of separating the
competitors by an amount that truly reflects their relative
ability. Why are the judges still so stingy with +2s and
+3s? Out of 160 elements in the Short programs and only 4 had a
majority of 2s or better. If the best skaters in the world can't
get 2s and 3s, one might ask if the standard has anything to do with
reality.

Sunday, February 12

Michelle Kwan withdrew from the Ladies event, citing
her groin injury. She will be replaced by Emily Hughes, who must
now arrange transportation to Torino. Hughes
received the word late Saturday night in the U.S. -- early in the
morning Sunday in Torino. Kwan reinjured her groin yesterday
during practice. At the time she described her body as being
stiff and said she planned to get physio during the day. Later
in the day the seriousness of the problem became more obvious.
Medical advice was that she withdraw from the competition, which she
accepted. She said that she could have delayed withdrawing, given
that the competition is more than a week away, but that she respected
the sport and the U.S. team to much to stand in the way of having the
three best ladies compete. Although she did not say so
explicitly, it was clear from her comments she accepted that even a
week from now, she would not be healthy enough to be considered one of
the three best, and so decided to step aside in the best interests of
the team. Yesterday she said she would withdraw if she was
unable to skate, and has decided that is in fact the case.

Saturday, February 11

This afternoon, Michel Kwan gave a press
conference. Beyond the fluff questions from the entertainment
reporters who were present, the main subject of interest was the
difficulties observed during her first open practice. Kwan
struggled in the practice, falling several times. A despondent
looking Kwan had a conversation with team leader Roger Glenn and
eventually left the practice 15 minutes early. She said that
after participating in the Opening Ceremony last night her body was
stiff and that she planned to get physiotherapy during the day.
She was asked about if she was considering withdrawing, and said that
if she was "unable to skate" she would do so.

The Pairs short program look place in the
evening. About 5500 where on hand for the event. Tatiana
Totmianina & Maxim Marinin hold the lead, with Dan Zhang & Hao
Zhang second and Maria Petrova & Alexei Tikhonov. Rena Inoue
& Jon Baldwin are in sixth. Inoue & Baldwin landed throw
triple Axel in the program, a first for Olympic (and international)
competition. Only 4 points separate second through eighth place,
so there could potentially be a lot of movement in the Free Skate.

Wed. - Thurs., February 8 - 9

Oh what fun, traveling over a third way round the
world, from Los Angeles to Torino, only twenty-seven hours door to
door. Passing through the airport in Rome, security was
remarkably light and blasé. No one asked me for an ID on
check-in or going through security. Guards? Few and far
between. I guess they are not as concerned about being a target
for terrorist as they gave the impression leading up to the
games. In Torino itself, the security presence is more obvious,
but not nearly as tight as in Salt Lake in 2002 or Athens in 2004.

Torino is located in a broad valley well below the
mountains where the alpine events are being held. The weather
this week looks to be mild to cool with clear sunny skies. It
seems more like spring is just around the corner, rather than the
start of a winter festival of sport.