Curling Pick'em

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Since the final date (May 1st) is coming up for announcing who qualifies, this thread will be pure mathematical speculation of who could take what spots in Ottawa. (Suffice it to say that those that go to Summerside for the Road to the Roar of the Rings will be all the big names that missed qualifying directly to Ottawa. I am happy to be corrected on any mistakes I make in my guesses.

Of course Koe and Carruthers have locked up official spots. Unofficially Gushue has locked up the two year total and it is not even remotely realistic anybody can catch him.

Due to Koe winning two spots already a third YTD CTRS/OOM team will make it this year.

Looking at YTD pts...Jacobs sits highest after non-qualified teams I don't think it is realistic TWO teams will pass him. So I put him in. If McEwen doesn't win the Brier he really should pull for Gushue to win it as then he will get the two year spot.

That leaves two more OOM spots available for direct entry to Ottawa along with the Brier winner (as long as they medal at the world's.)

The Brier/Player's/Champions Cup will have a lot to say about who qualifies for those last spots available.

Mike McEwen is probably the player that would benefit the most of a Gushue Brier win and medal at Worlds' because he's next in line with the 2-year. Also, it looks like McEwen has also chosen to pass on going to Elite 10 and is going to play in Aberdeen the same weekend to get CTRS Points. If you're wondering why they haven't announced the Elite 10 teams, it's because you have 4 of the top 12 teams already commited in Aberdeen with Smith, Ulsrud, McEwen and De Cruz.

For the guys it's tougher to predict than the women because the Brier hasn't been played yet. If Gushue doesn't win the Brier he should easily get the #2 spot, as he's way ahead of Jacobs in the 2016-17 standings.

A lot of things can happen for Jacobs to get the #4 spot. He wins the Brier and takes it himself. Koe wins the Brier and Jacobs gets the vacated #4 by being the top team left in the 2016-17 CTRS standings, as Gushue would get the #2 spot. If Gushue wins the Brier he gets the #4 spot, and then Jacobs goes to the #2 spot. If McEwen wins the Brier, Jacobs likely gets the #5 spot, unless Epping can pass him. If Epping does pass him, Jacobs gets the #6 spot. Whatever happens, he's basically a lock. There are some highly unlikely and improbably scenarios, but Jacobs is basically in.

Epping should have enough points to get in, leaving Laycock and Morris battling for the last spot. Given that Morris is in the Brier and can get points, he should have the edge. It'll likely come down to the two GSOC events.

How hard would it be for TSN to put together this information in an easy to read chart, showing current standings, and then give options to show what happens if one team claims a spot? All the major sports do this when trying to see where your NHL/MLB/NFL team will end up in the playoffs.

How hard would it be for TSN to put together this information in an easy to read chart, showing current standings, and then give options to show what happens if one team claims a spot? All the major sports do this when trying to see where your

NHL/MLB/NFL team will end up in the playoffs.

I would expect that this should be the job of the CC not necessarily the TSN

To early tp put up a simple infographic for the last teams remaining. Too many unknown variables. NFL is easy, as each game is a win or loss, everyone plays teh same number of games, adn that is all that matters. But in curling, events value in OOM based upon the size of field and who is in teh field, people dont play in every event, etc. I am not sure you can do too much better than what this thread shows at the top.

quote:Originally posted by curlky To early tp put up a simple infographic for the last teams remaining. Too many unknown variables. NFL is easy, as each game is a win or loss, everyone plays teh same number of games, adn that is all that matters. But in curling, events value in OOM based upon the size of field and who is in teh field, people dont play in every event, etc. I am not sure you can do too much better than what this thread shows at the top.

Morris is a point ahead of McEwen, and they are only 30 points behind Laycock, and 60 behind Epping. That means that if they make the playoffs at the Brier and Players both can be cough

Morris is a point ahead of McEwen, and they are only 30 points behind Laycock, and 60 behind Epping. That means that if they make the playoffs at the Brier and Players both can be caught

Not quite that simple. You have to look at what teams are dropping for points as they can only count 8 events, which means it can be difficult to climb higher at this point in the season without a deep playoff finish.

Team Morris would drop an 18 pointer next with Laycock dropping a similar amount of 17 points. McEwen is dropping an 8 pointer so he could make up some extra ground quickly.

Remember: Curling Canada fills in the qualification list in the order presented, any duplicate team is replaced by the highest unqualified one year points team but the two year spot at number 5 goes to the highest unqualified two year team. This is my interpretation of how it is stated on their website.

Realistically only Morris has a chance of catching somebody for the one year total. McEwen really helped himself up the one year list with his third place finish in the Brier and also extended his lead over Epping on the two year list. McEwen and Morris are the only teams in the running here not already qualified for the Champions Cup. All teams are in the Players. While the non points garnering Elite 10 is going on this week-end McEwen will be in Europe at the Aberdeen spiel looking for more points. Although possible, it is very unlikely a series of results will occur where McEwen does not somehow already qualify (Epping would have to pass him on the two year list and both Laycock and Morris would have to pass him on the one year list.) Epping is probably in as well unless say Morris wins the Players and Laycock wins the Champion's cup. It is really a two horse race between Laycock and Morris for the final automatic berth to Ottawa.

One note: Curling Canada decided that Champions Cup does not count for CTRS points this season. It's not something a lot of people know about as it was not broadcasted, so the race ends at the Players' in Toronto.

quote:Originally posted by tapfreeze One note: Curling Canada decided that Champions Cup does not count for CTRS points this season. It's not something a lot of people know about as it was not broadcasted, so the race ends at the Players' in Toronto.

Nice catch tapfreeze. You are correct. The curling Canada website shows all the valid CTRS events and the Champions Cup is not on there. The European Masters is listed, wonder if Laycock or Morris have entered that.

quote:Originally posted by misty1 what about teams qualified for the pre-trials? how many teams are they letting into that event this year and what teams are looking like they'll be going to that?

Road to the Roar Qualification (from Curl Canada Website)
Men and Women
1. Winners 2014 Home Hardware Canada Cup (Mike McEwen)
2. Highest ranked team on the 201415 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials (Brad Jacobs)
3. Highest ranked team on the 201516 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
4. Highest ranked team on the 201516 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
5. Highest ranked team on the 201516 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
6. Highest ranked team on the 201516 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
7. Highest ranked team on the 201617 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
8. Highest ranked team on the 201617 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
9. Highest ranked team on the 201617 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
10. Highest ranked team on the 201617 CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
11. Highest ranked team on the 201517 (two years) CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials
12. Highest ranked team on the 201517 (two years) CTRS not already qualified for the Trials or Pre-Trials

Two spots in the ROTR come from Pre-Trials.

Looking at this it seems like it will be basically just going down the list for 14-15, 15-16, 16-17, and 15-17 points list because McEwen and Jacobs are already in. I find it kind of odd that the winner of the Canada Cups get such direct entry, when the Brier winners have to actually medal. I guess that means the Canada Cup depth of field is considered to be stronger? 2014 CC winner gets a berth in the Pre-Trials and Brier winner gets nothing? Koe's team broke up after winning 14 Brier, but McEwen's team could easily have as well. I feel like the Brier is a more important event that gives the winning team international experience.

Came up with this on my lunch break. Definitely not the correct list. Not sure if #2 goes by 14-15 or moves to 16-17 list. Not sure about what happens with Teams Cotter or Simmons as they don't exist anymore right? Ran out of lunch break and desire to add up 15-17 points. Please feel free to correct my egregious errors.

Came up with this on my lunch break. Definitely not the correct list. Not sure if #2 goes by 14-15 or moves to 16-17 list. Not sure about what happens with Teams Cotter or Simmons as they don't exist anymore right? Ran out of lunch break and desire to add up 15-17 points. Please feel free to correct my egregious errors.

Like I said there are probably some mistakes. So corrections are welcome. The whole thing is a little complicated but also pretty fair. Basically 19 teams (9 in trials, 2 of which come from 12 teams in pre-trials) get a shot at representing Canada at the Olympics.

I agree that the Slams need to provide more points of entry into the tour. The Pre-trials give some of the occasional slammers/2nd tier a chance as well. That being said it looks like this year only 3 Slam events qualified for points (Masters, National, Canadian Open). In 15-16 there would have been the Players' Championship as well, not sure about Champion's cup. It's hard to find all of the Slam events that get CTRS points so I might have all that wrong. The Grand Slam has taken steps towards being more accessible (Tour Challenge), and hopefully will continue to. There are also 2-4 international teams that play in each of those Slam events that aren't getting CTRS points.

What I'm saying is I don't really have a problem with the best teams in Canada getting the best chance to represent us at the Olympics. Way better than whatever weird system they have going in the U.S.

Good job propane_cooker, I was too lazy to go through that. The two year points teams (I think) are Korte and Bice (Menard would be third here I think).

/RANT

Anyways in the hopes that somebody at Curling Canada reads this I would like to know why this thread even exists. I get it that the people that post and lurk here are the outliers of the general population but in this day and age fans expect some level of information to be dispersed from our governing body. The NHL/NFL/MLB/NBA all publish "IF the playoffs started today here's the who's in/out list and who plays who". All the fans know the teams might change between today and the start of the playoffs but it is fun to see how things are lining up and just how close/far the non-playoff teams are from making it and replacing a current "In" playoff team. It is part of the fun of sports. Is it really too much to ask that a similar list exist for the ROTR and the Road to the ROTR? Give the people what they want. There is no reason that since the fall this could not have been a moving and dynamic list. Would have been great to follow. more hits on their webpage, more advertising, etc. No doubt all this info is on an Excel spreadsheet in the Curling Canada office somewhere. Expose it.

There could be a lot of drama at the Player's if Morris goes deep in the playoffs and Laycock does poorly. I want to hear the Sportsnet announcer tell me just how far Morris has to go to get in. I want to see the current ROTR standings. I guess since Curling Canada has ties to TSN they don't see the benefit of this? Since Simmons/Raycroft/Thiessen did earn a Road to the Roar invitation two years ago are they still eligible to claim it if they want? Probably not but I'd like to know for sure.

All the pro leagues are in it to MAKE MONEY so giving the fans something to chew on helps this cause, creates excitement. I guess since Curling Canada is funded by the government and our curling dues they don't feel the same need to engage the public in the Olympic process? Wake the f*** up Curling Canada.

Since the Champions Cup doesn't earn CTRS points this year why do they have the date of the invites posted as after the Cup? Why can't they just update their website like a normal sports organization the moment after each spiel. (They do for CTRS standings but I'm talking about these trials.) After the European Master the numbers can be crunched and we know right away who got what. If no Canadian teams are in the European Masters they could announce the invites right after the Player's is done. Wouldn't that be nice? Could be a 30 minute special on TSN announcing the teams and handicapping all four events (men's and women's)...kind of like announcing the March Madness brackets. Too much to ask for from an organization that just doesn't "get" the information age.

What if somebody declines a Road to the Roar invite? Then what? Can they just select Menard ? That would be great but instead there is just one measly webpage they update once a year, maybe twice. Pathetic.

Hi Three totally agree with you. As someone who lives in Summerside and quite involved with curling like to know if I'm figuring things out right. Trying to tell curlers and fans that the teams who are coming and who maybe going right to the trials is hard. I have an idea but not exactly sure if I'm right or not. Curling Canada needs to do a better job for all involved curlers, fans, host areas to promote these events. Gerry do you have a better idea and could post possibilties as of this point and no more events for both the ladies and the mens. Thanks. Amanda

Three, you are absolutely correct. You bring up great ideas to really draw fans into the events. A running list all year would have been really engaging for a lot of people I would think. With the olympics being so important in the curling scene these days you would think that there would be more hype at points events about who is where in the standings.

Another interesting standings list to follow would be the trials/pretrials standings. 7 teams will qualify for the trials and then the next 12 go to pretrials. With all the computations and permutations that change weekly it would be nice to see maybe the top 25 overall to see where everyone fits in. It can change weekly based on who wins what and how many points they get.

quote:Originally posted by IN-OFF-FOR-2 Another interesting standings list to follow would be the trials/pretrials standings. 7 teams will qualify for the trials and then the next 12 go to pretrials. With all the computations and permutations that change weekly it would be nice to see maybe the top 25 overall to see where everyone fits in. It can change weekly based on who wins what and how many points they get.

Gerry?

I agree - and the social media buzz with this kind of update would be hot hot hot! I betcha that curling.ca would be linking CZ, hashTagging them, and sharing the CZ posts all over the place! (or else just doing it and hoping for tags of their own).
...Gerry?

Menard is actually in right now if I did the math it correctly.
McEwen, Gushue, Jacobs and Epping are virtual locks for the Trials. Whether Morris or Laycock gets in means not that big of a deal to the other teams, because they're getting McEwen's 14 Canada Cup spot.

2014-15: Bottcher (Here's how I see it: Howard had two new members between 14-15 and 15-16 so would it be considered valid? I doubt it, and even if Howard got the spot, Bottcher would be in from the 15-16 batch because he was higher than Lyburn, so whether it's the right way or the wrong way)
2015-16: Howard, Thomas, Lyburn, Menard (Meachem is out for the same reason why Howard, but even if he didn't make it there, he's making it from 16-17 and even if you agreed that Meachem should get that spot, Menard would get in on the 2 year)
2016-17: Dunstone, Gunnlaugson, Balsdon, Casey 2 year: Bice, Deruelle. (Korte should be out because Korte has retired and team Flasch has only 2 members of the team)