The most interesting thing to me is that at least one FOMC participant, possibly more, projects some pretty dramatic rate shocks in our future. Just using the graphs shown in the minutes it’s hard to tell exactly because the individual projections aren’t identified across each time period. At a minimum however one projection has the target changing by +125bp by the end of 2013. In 2014 things could get more volatile, again one projection could be as little as a +125bp change, or it could be as much as +275bp.

Stick to basic shock analysis using 100, 200, 300 and 400bp parallel changes. Evaluating anything different will get you into the business of trying to predict rate changes. And as we’ve seen from the Fed over the past eight months (see January, April, and September minutes), even these smart folks can’t nail down their prediction.