How likely is an upward revision to Q4 GDP growth?

I was just looking at the New York Fed’s Nowcast for Q4 and noticed the numbers climbing as the quarter progressed. Yet when the final number came out, there was a big miss to the downside.

Source: NY Fed

Given the numbers were climbing and we missed to the downside, could we expect a data revision upward when the next estimate is released at the end of February? With more people talking about the Fed’s reaction function – and some now openly talking about a 4th rate increase in 2018 —I think a big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.

In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.