Win your Oscar pool with expert predictions in every single category

The 90th Academy Awards will unfold on Sunday, and by this point in the slog of the awards season, we typically have a pretty good idea of who’s going home with the gold. But this year, there’s still a little bit of suspense heading into the ceremony, especially with the Best Picture race seemingly more wide open than ever. Here are our Oscar predictions for all 24 categories — and be sure to print out your ballot so you can play along at home.

Is this one of the closest Best Picture races ever? The Decider says it’s at least the closest since 2006. The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri have been the frontrunners jockeying for first place in the Academy’s complicated preferential ballot system after each securing late-season guild awards. Both films, however, have their detractors and could split the vote, which would open the door for Get Out. In fact, so many people are now calling for a Get Out upset that by Sunday night it might not feel so surprising.

Prediction:Get OutDon’t be surprised by:The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriDark horse:Dunkirk

For four of the past five years, the Academy has split its top two prizes. This is a category that also tends to reward pure technical mastery. That would put DGA champ Guillermo del Toro — a much revered, Oscar-less filmmaker — in great shape for the beautifully captured Shape of Water. Don’t count out another much revered, Oscar-less filmmaker named Christopher Nolan for his stunningly immersive battle pic, Dunkirk, though.

This was once considered a three-way race between Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan, and Sally Hawkins; all signs now point to the Three Billboards star for her blistering, all-out-of-effs turn as a grieving mother tormenting local police for not solving her daughter’s murder case. McDormand should win an Oscar to bookend her 1996 stauette for Fargo — let’s just try not to bleep her out this time.

You could say (and people did) that Gary Oldman won the Oscar when Darkest Hour premiered in the fall — or even earlier, when the trailer debuted. Oldman’s unrecognizable turn as world history MVP Winston Churchill really is that stunning. It’s one of those transformative performances that comes along every few years, and the best male lead performance since Daniel Day-Lewis downed those metaphorical milkshakes in There Will Be Blood.

There was a time when both supporting categories looked incredibly close. But with wins at the SAG Awards, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs, Allison Janney has left Laurie Metcalf in the dust with her hilarious, biting, bird-assisted, profanity-laced, tragicomic work as Tonya Harding’s mom LaVona Golden in the mockumentary I, Tonya. If Oldman’s performance is the flat-out best of the year, Janney’s is my favorite.

Nominees:Willem Dafoe, The Florida ProjectWoody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriRichard Jenkins, The Shape of WaterChristopher Plummer, All the Money in the WorldSam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This category was once presumed to be a nail-biter between Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell, but the latter has emerged as the clear favorite following victories at the SAGs, the Globes, and the BAFTAs. While Rockwell is where smart money is, there has also been some blowback against the redemption of his bigoted cop in the film, and with Dafoe being the sole representative of the beloved but otherwise snubbed Florida Project, I’m calling fo a most irresponsible upset here.

Jordan Peele made history by becoming the first African-American nominated for Oscar’s trifecta: writing, directing, and producing. And considering that Get Out is far from a lock in Best Picture or Best Director, it wouldn’t be surprising to see voters throw their weight behind him here. Martin McDonagh, however, was snubbed in Best Director, so the acclaimed playwright/screenwriter could score some sympathy points. And let’s not forget the brilliance of Greta Gerwig’s deeply personal coming-of-ager Lady Bird. This one’s a toughie.

Unlike the previous category, Best Adapted Screenplay has very little suspense. Expect 89-year-old scribe James Ivory (formerly of the Merchant Ivory producing team) to be the lone representative from Call Me by Your Name to hear his name called Sunday.

Prediction:Call Me by Your Name

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees:The Boss BabyThe BreadwinnerCocoFerdinandLoving Vincent

Here’s another category without much suspense. Coco is one of Pixar’s most color, inventive, and poignant adventures yet, even if it “underperformed” at the box office with only $208 million. It’s all relative to other Pixar movies; last year’s Finding Dory made more than twice that amount. Dory, however, wasn’t even nominated. Coco will head to the afterlife an Oscar winner.

Prediction:CocoDark horse:The Breadwinner or Loving Vincent

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Nominees:Abacus: Small Enough to JailFaces PlacesIcarusLast Men in AleppoStrong Island

There are typically two types of docs that prevail at the Oscars: the crowdpleasers (i.e. March of the Penguins) or the heavy downers (The Cove). This year’s pool has both types: the quirky and comedic Faces Places, and the horrifying and intense Syrian war tearjerker Last Men in Aleppo. Icarus, Bryan Fogel’s stunning and maddening firsthand exposé of the Russian Olympic doping scandal is in a category all its own, though, much like last year’s winner, O.J.: Made in America (but six hours shorter!).

Prediction:IcarusDon’t be surprised by:Faces PlacesDark horse: Last Men in Aleppo

Ruben Östlund’s Swedish satire The Square has been the perceived favorite among foreign films since it won the Palme d’Or at Cannes last year, but its jankier moments and all-over-the-place narrative could turn some voters off. A safer bet could be Sebastián Lelio’s quietly devastating drama A Fantastic Woman, featuring a revelatory performance from transgender newcomer Daniela Vega — who, in a less competitive year, could’ve claimed a spot in the Best Actress race.

This is one of the more intriguing cinematography races in years (if you’re an Oscar nerd like me). Rachel Morrison earned her placed in the record books by become the first woman nominated in this category for beautifully rendering harsh rural landscapes in Mudbound. She earned the loudest ovation at the February’s nominees luncheon, for what that’s worth, and also just DP’ed Black Panther. But how do you not give this one to Roger Deakins, legend of the frame who now stands at 0-for-13 at the Oscars and who may have delivered his most dazzling work yet in bringing to life the moody futurism of Blade Runner 2049?

Christopher Nolan’s rousing Dunkirk was once thought to be a surefire Best Picture favorite, but while those days are behind us, the WWII thriller could still rack up some technical wins. That starts with editing, where it just prevailed at the American Cinema Editors (ACE) Awards. Its stiffest competition comes from car chase musical Baby Driver, but odds favor Dunkirk‘s Lee Smith winning his first Oscar in three tries.

Prediction:DunkirkDon’t be surprised by:Baby Driver

Vicky Krieps and Daniel Day-Lewis in “Phantom Thread.” (Focus)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees:Beauty and the BeastDarkest HourPhantom ThreadThe Shape of WaterVictoria and Abdul

One of the films nominated for Best Costume Design is about a man (Daniel Day-Lewis as Reynolds Woodcock) actually designing costumes (OK, they’re technically dresses, but you get the picture). ‘Nuff said.

Prediction:Phantom Thread

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees:Beauty and the BeastBlade Runner 2049Darkest HourDunkirkThe Shape of Water

There’s an impressive set of worlds built here, but the work of The Shape of Water team of Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau, and Jeffrey A. Melvin has a leg (fin?) up here for crafting a universe that’s not only enticing to look at but also feels so unique to its fairy-tale story.

Prediction:The Shape of WaterDark horse:Blade Runner 2049

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees:Blade Runner 2049Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2Kong: Skull IslandStar Wars: The Last JediWar for the Planet of the Apes

It’s a shame more blockbuster-type action films don’t get serious consideration for Best Picture, because the War for the Planet of the Apes capped an incredible trilogy in which the films got better with each installment. They’ll have to settle for a signature win for their groundbreaking VFX — if they hold off the eye-popping effects of Blade Runner 2049.

Prediction:War for the Planet of the ApesDon’t be surprised by:Blade Runner 2049

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

Nominees:Darkest HourVictoria & AbdulWonder

This one is easier to predict than most below-the-line categories for a couple reasons: One, there are only three nominees (though it’s anyone’s guess how a film like Victoria & Abdul made the cut over Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2). Two, just look at what the Darkest Hour team did to Gary Oldman.

There are some legends among the contenders, notably The Last Jedi‘s John Williams (five wins in 50 previous nominations) Dunkirk‘s Hans Zimmer (one win in 10 previous nominations) and The Shape of Water‘s Alexandre Desplat (one in in eight previous nominations). Desplat is considered the heavy frontrunner for shaping Water‘s sounds, but I’m partial to Phantom Thread for the sumptuous work done by Radiohead’s Johnny Greenwood, who could creep up and pull off a surprise win.

Earlier this year I would’ve said this one’s open and shut: It’d be the unforgettable Coco ballad “Remember Me” all the way. But that was before the Keala Settle-crooned, Pasek and Paul-written power pop tune “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman became a bona fide hit. I still think Coco will prevail, but this race is a lot closer than it used to be.

Prediction: “Remember Me”Don’t be surprised by: “This Is Me”

BEST SOUND EDITING / BEST SOUND MIXING

Because it’s always helpful to have a refresher: Sound editing is the creation of nonmusical sound effects used in films (i.e., sirens, gunshots, etc.) while sound mixing is the blending and balancing all of the sounds in a film. (They’re different effects, yet all five nominees are the same in each category.)

Now think about how much audio wizardry went into blending the heist action of Baby Driver with all the tunes director Edgar Wright had his cast carefully choreograph their movements to … feels like that type of synchronicity is more than enough to warrant an Oscar.

The most topical choice here is surely DeKalb Elementary, a low-budget and contained drama about a school administrator confronting a mentally unstable gunman who has entered the premises. But that short’s production values and emotional resonance are dwarfed by The Silent Child, a poignant and beautifully shot tale of a relationship between a tutor and deaf child that doubles as a plea for more readily available sign-language programs in schools.

The oddsmakers are seeing stars in their eyes and favoring the Kobe Bryant-produced love letter to hoops, Dear Basketball. But there’s also a serious Pixar charmer in the mix, Lou, about a shape-shifting monster who schools a bully (and which provided the best six minutes of our Cars 3 experience). While you’d think the animation giant would regularly triumph in this category, they’ve actually only won once — last year for Piper — over the past decade. (Disney Animation has won two others over that span.) I’ll bet on a repeat, though.

Nominees:Edith+EddieHeaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405Heroin(e)Knife SkillsTraffic Stop

If there’s an easy call among the short categories, this would be it. Though Heroin(e) and Knife Skills are both well worth a watch, Edith+Eddie — a look at an interracial marriage between Virginians aged 95 and 96 — is a cut above the rest. The film pivots early from quirky bliss to devastating heartbreak over its fully engaging 30 minutes. Plus, only one of these films has Cher stumping for it.