While there’s no strict protocol laying out the requirements for launching a fresh round of active speculation on a looming cabinet shuffle — as opposed, that is, to the constant, low-grade chatter over which underperforming ministers seem destined for demotion and, conversely, which high-flying rookies are headed for a promotion — there are a few general rules of thumb on the ideal climate for nourishing the rumour mill.

Barring a sudden opening in the senior ranks, the rumblings usually start during an extended House hiatus — more often, near the midway point in the summer recess, but with the occasional outbreak over the post-Christmas pause — and can often be pegged to red-circled dates like an upcoming cabinet or caucus retreat.

(Oh, and for those who might want to join the game but aren’t sure how to be tagged in: Yes, being asked if you’ve heard anything about a cabinet shuffle does indeed count as hearing something about a cabinet shuffle, so feel free to dive in.)

Stage Two: Will it be an all-hands all-caps SHUFFLESTRAVAGANZA, or just a modest shufflette?

As soon as the speculation is officially underway — a threshold that is generally deemed to have been reached as soon as at least one national political affairs columnist has devoted at least half of his or her regular slot to the subject — the talk tends to turn to the scope of the shuffle to come.

Will it be a major overhaul, with virtually every portfolio in the swap pile (except maybe finance, and possibly even that, too, or a relatively minor rejigging — filling the odd non-essential vacancy here, splitting off a junior file as a starter post for a new arrival?

As a rule, the longer it’s been since a front-bench shakeup, the more elaborate the theories on what changes the prime minister is poised to make, although as always, that isn’t always how it turns out.

Even so, this is usually when the graph paper — or, alternately, the back of the nearest available napkin — comes out as the discussion shifts to the nitty-gritty of maintaining those all important balances — regional and provincial, language and, for Team Trudeau, gender.

It’s also when those of us who find ourselves drafting a fantasy cabinet to back up our predictions discover how tricky it can be to keep all those boxes checked — and how unexpectedly finicky even a seemingly simple tweak can be. Typically, this leads to a sudden wave of doubt on the magnitude of what is still, at this point, an entirely hypothetical overhaul.

Add in the need to account for every current cabinet member — either by moving them around the board, leaving them in their current slot or dropping them from the roster entirely — while simultaneously adding at least one or two new faces to the mix — and you start to get a sense of why prime ministers don’t reboot the ministry on a more regular basis.

(This, if you’ve ever wondered, is why the pre-shuffle coverage tends to vacillate between the two extremes in prognostication — depending on how long we’re forced to wait for the official summons to Rideau Hall, there can be several cycles of stepping on the gas before slamming the brakes.)

Stage 3: To Rideau Hall, and step on it!

Finally, the day arrives —which we usually don’t find out for sure until the day itself, as the formal invitation to set up media encampments on the vice-regal grounds tends to arrive on relatively short notice — presumably, to provide a buffer in the event that a last-minute-re-shuffle is required.

This is also when normal, non-precinct-dwelling Canadians are most likely to tune in: the pre-shuffle stakeout by the driveway, which is usually covered live by the various news networks. As the town cars — or, in some cases, the taxis — roll up the lane, reporters fall over each other trying to identify the occupants, although the significance of who has turned up for the ceremony isn’t nearly as informative as you might think.

Ministers who are keeping their current jobs, for instance, don’t have to show up — but neither, of course, do those who have been advised that the prime minister no longer requires their services.

Yes, a beaming backbencher strolling down the lawn may indeed be about to be sworn in — but then again, they may just be there to support a colleague — or the government as a whole. That also goes for current cabinet ministers who make an appearance at the appointed hour: they may be switching to a new post, or simply adding a new responsibility to their existing mandate, or they may just be there for the show.

And despite the best efforts of the assembled media to elicit clear yes-or-no answers from everyone who comes within range of the microphones, the standard response to all such queries is to smile broadly and say something about the weather.

It isn’t until the press release announcing the new ministry comes out that the speculation — or, at least, this particular line thereof — wraps up.

Stage 4: So, who won the betting pool?

No, not really. I mean, yes, as far as reporters go, at least, we do occasionally have betting pools, but generally only for elections or leadership races. When it comes to cabinet shuffles, however, we just tend to keep track, at least unofficially, of who got what right — and, more importantly, wrong — in predicting the outcome, if only as a cautionary tale to blithely ignore the next time the speculation circuit heats up.

Stage 5: And now, onto the next rite of the summer news cycle.

“So, have you heard anything about a snap election?”

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1 comment on “Process Nerd: The five stages of cabinet shuffle speculation”

I can’t think of one of them worth keeping in their current position, especially the PM himself. It would be in the best interests of both the Libs and more importantly the country itself if Trudeau stepped down.