Site Mobile Navigation

Bloomberg Lead Over Thompson Grows, Poll Shows

Mayor

The bad news for Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is that he has barely budged in the polls, despite spending $65 million of his own fortune on his bid for a third term. But his opponent, Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr., has it even worse, according to the latest poll released by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

With the election less than two weeks away, Mr. Thompson has fallen further behind Mr. Bloomberg, the two-term incumbent, and now trails by 16 percentage points among likely voters, with 52 percent saying they would vote for Mr. Bloomberg, and 36 percent for Mr. Thompson. In a previous Marist survey in September, Mr. Thompson was behind by 9 percentage points, 52 percent to 43 percent.

Mr. Bloomberg, an independent who is running as a Republican, also remains fairly popular among city residents. The survey found that 58 percent of registered voters approve of the job he has done in eight years; in September, that figure was 59 percent.

The sample size was relatively small — out of 885 city residents who were surveyed by phone between Oct. 19 and 21, 744 were registered voters, and 390 were identified as likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus five percentage points.

Still, the poll offers the latest evidence that Mr. Thompson is fast running out of time, and that Mr. Bloomberg’s increasingly negative ads attacking Mr. Thompson’s record on education and pension fund record have seemingly taken their toll. In September, 22 percent of those surveyed had a bad impression of Mr. Thompson; now it is 33 percent. And a plurality of Democrats now say that they will support Mr. Bloomberg over Mr. Thompson; last month, Mr. Thompson was the pick of a majority of Democrats.

The Thompson campaign released a statement in response to the poll:

“The key to this poll is that among the larger sample size of 744 NYC registered voters, the race is 47% for Mike Bloomberg and 38% for Bill Thompson – only a 9 point spread. Despite nearly the $100 million he has spent trying to buy this campaign, the Mayor is still under 50%, with 12% undecided. This is still a very open race and we are very optimistic.”

One encouraging note for Mr. Thompson is that voters continue to say that they are turned off by Mr. Bloomberg’s successful push to rewrite the term limits law, in order to give him and City Council members a shot at running for a third term. Forty-two percent of those surveyed said that the term limits issue had made them less likely to vote for the mayor; only 8 percent said that it made them more likely to support him. Hence Mr. Thompson’s plans to talk about term limits again in a speech on Thursday.

Then again, voters also continue to say overwhelmingly that Mr. Bloomberg’s lopsided financial advantage over Mr. Thompson — he is outspending him by 16-1, at last count — will have no impact on their vote.

And you can expect Mr. Bloomberg to continue attacking Mr. Thompson for the next two weeks. At a breakfast forum sponsored by Crain’s New York Business on Thursday, Mr. Bloomberg criticized Mr. Thompson’s budget plan (which would rely, in part, on more money from Albany and Washington) as “nothing more than pie-in-the-sky, wishful thinking. There is no Santa Claus in budgeting, as nice as that would be.”

As with most polls, there is a different result for “likely” voters as opposed to “registered” voters. But this poll references an additional category. Paragraph three of the summary released by the pollster reads: “But, likely non-enrolled voters have moved toward Thompson. ”

The term limit issue scares the hell out of Bloomberg. It will will suppress those who like him from going to polls and it will motivate those who are outraged by his style, his hypocrisy and his arrogance. Politicians who are confident of winning do not run attack ads.

If Obama can come to NYC, to support upstate candidates, and then go to N.J. to support Corzine, then why can’t support a fellow democrat that really can use his help.
Bloomberg is still a republican, who has basically endorsed Rudy G. I guess a New York needs another loser (in Albany).
It’s amazing how easy we are willing to have the wool pulled over our eyes through negative campaigning.
All hail King Bloomberg.

Harumph!
They didn’t call and ask my opinion.
And further;
I got a glossy folded circular from the Bloomberg Campaign today with the names of several prominent people who are gay listed as being Bloomberg endorsers.
Well, he hasn’t asked me to dance yet!
Do you know how dejected I feel just standing here in heels and tiara only being allowed to just wistfully eyeball the stag line?

They don’t even ask 1,000 people and their poll is accurate . The head of the company is a Billionaireberg buddy and like Madoff can make the numbers what ever they want to say. I wish they would tell you if all the calls were made in Manhattan because in the outer boros it’s Thompson town. Billionaireberg is talking staff shake ups ,but why if life is perfect in NYC. Landlords that have been caught in the latest rent scam are praying their buddy Billionaireberg gets back in to help fight for them. Speyers a long time friend is going to have to pay back millions so Mikes re-election is key.

I think Thompson would have a chance if he actually had anything to campaign on other than “I’m not Bloomberg” and “did I mention I’m not Bloomberg?” Has he not noticed that Bloomberg’s approval ratings are higher than the U.S. President’s and have been for a while? This means NYers need a compelling reason not to give him a third term and so far, Thompson hasn’t produced one. For that matter, he has no vision on jobs, economic development, education, housing or how to keep crime low. So this begs the question: why’s he running for Mayor? The answer, “it’s my TURN!!”

So a billionaire can win(buy) an “election”, even though no one ever voted for a 3rd term. Now we’re stuck with Emperor Bloomberg again.

— Mark

Nonsense. If nobody votes for Bloomberg in Nov., he doesn’t get a third term. If you don’t like him, get off your duff and vote for Thompson and quit whining.

Arshad, by your limited logic, all polls represent a de facto endorsement of the leader. I hope most voters vote on the issues, not who will win. Moreover, a pol’s power is to some extent defined by his or her margin of victory, so voting for the loser is nto a futile act. Not voting is the only futile act in an election.

I hope those of you who manufacture some rationalization to stay home and not vote will stay off these pages for the next 4 years because your voice is not relevant.

What is the difference,anyway, between these two fascists? They both want a government that will dictate every single thing we subjects can and cannot do. This election is a joke; similar to those old elections in the U.S.S.R. when only the party fielded candidates!

So a billionaire can win(buy) an “election”, even though no one ever voted for a 3rd term. Now we’re stuck with Emperor Bloomberg again.

— Mark

I doubt it, but it doesn’t really matter anyway. Bloomberg will get the majority of those who vote Nov. 4, regardless of their background. And if the non-rich are worried about it, perhaps they should vote as often as the rich folk do.

Face it — Thompson’s a nobody with no track record. Sure, Bloomberg has some belmishes, but who didn’t after eight years at maybe the second toughest job in America? Certainly not Rudy, certainly not Dinkens…oh, waitt, did he even last eight years?

What's Next

Looking for New York Today?

New York Today is still going strong! Though no longer on City Room, New York Today continues to appear every weekday morning, offering a roundup of news and events for the city. You can find the latest New York Today at nytoday.com or in the morning, on The New York Times homepage or its New York section. You can also receive it via email.

Lookin for Metropolitan Diary?

Metropolitan Diary continues to publish! Since 1976, Metropolitan Diary has been a place for New Yorkers, past and present, to share odd fleeting moments in the city. We will continue to publish one item each weekday morning and a round-up in Monday's print edition. You can find the latest entries at nytimes.com/diary and on our New York section online.

About

City Room®, a news blog of live reporting, features and reader conversations about New York City, has been archived. Send questions or suggestions by e-mail.