Good Evening, everyone. Much needed rains continue to press to the east of the state, leaving behind a general 1″-4″ of rains. Now comes the seasonally cold temperatures and the increasing risk for some winter weather.

Temps for the next few days will be about where we should be to open up the month of December. At some point, a rain or snow shower may come calling with the best chance in the northeast. The GFS shows where it thinks a few flakes are possible through Friday…

The next system will come at us in two waves. The first arrives Saturday night into Sunday with some light precipitation. This could start out in the form of some rain, sleet or snow. The GFS gives much of the state a chance at seeing the mix…

The main part of the storm will then come at us late Monday into Tuesday. That should bring another round of heavy rains…

A true arctic front will likely follow that up by late Wednesday into Thursday. This will likely be accompanied by a big storm system, with a secondary low trying to develop somewhere along that boundary as it swings through here.

The Canadian goes wild with that setup…

For fun, here’s the snowfall forecast from that particular run…

The chances for snow will be figured out as we get closer, but the amount of arctic air diving into the country is impressive…

Overall, the very cold signal continues to show up on the Ensembles for December. Watch out the air across the country has a direct pipeline to Alaska…

4 Responses to Wednesday Evening Update

I can’t recall ever seeing this much rain without any high water issues in my lifetime! Total event at 4.88 here at the house…basically over with a possible shower left to receive. The Cumberland River is not even half way up after receiving 5 and 1/2 inches in 48 hours for a testament to how the ground is soaking this up!

I am definitely looking forward to the continued active pattern and hopeful winter weather.

Looks like this winter will be more like our previous winters two years ago. Smaller drive-by snows and as CB noted, more potential for big ice than big snow. Seems about right, FWIW- hoping not much 😉

My parents live near Chattanooga/Cleveland TN and they joked they could almost hear the ground desperately soaking in all the rain, although Chattanooga was under a Flash Flood Warning for a while early this morning.

Unfortunately, a tornado at Ocoee TN (east of Chattanooga/Cleveland) left two fatalities. Brings back uncomfortable memories of the m-a-s-s-i-v-e April 27 2011 outbreak in which an EF4 twister missed my parents’ place by about eight miles as the crow flies.

IIRC, the fall of 2010 was very warm and dry and then came a cold wet December capped off by a White Christmas for unusual places like Nashville, Chattanooga, Huntsville, even down to Auburn AL. Perhaps at least a few similarities to this fall? I don’t recall all the factors. However, the end of 2010 had a strong La Nina, although the current La Nina is relatively weak.