I started using "home computers" back in 1979 with my Atari 800... at that time there were multiple platforms that did not talk to each other at all... It took several years for all the different providers to die out and leave the two survivors to battle each other... I have seen that same battle in many technology arenas over the year and see the latest battle as a part of the process that has been going on for many years... It's just going to come down to who can provide the best match with what companies and consumers need the most at this time.

I hate "hate/love/hate" relationships

Heading of Woody's article is "Move over, Windows; Google and Apple are movin' in", yet I am slightly confused as to which computing platform he is addressing: Is Woody talking about the PC (desktop/laptop) market or is he saying that that Google/Apple are "movin' in" to the mobile (phone/tablet) market. The two markets (IMHO) are distinctly different, although they may be overlapping at some points. If the argument is the ongoing slip of the PC industry market-share; there is no argument there, as it has been in the news for quite many years. But the PC computing market is still Windows-centric. If Woody is talking about the "mobile" market, then it is not really a "move over" and/or "movin' in" issue since Windows8Phones never had dominance to start with.

There are no "tars and feathers" in my post but it takes Woody 7 paragraphs before deciding to put his opinions in an explanatory framework that normally should belong in the first paragraph. It maybe that computing will advance to the point where everyone is using teeny-weeny little virtual keyboards and under 10" touch displays. Unfortunately, there will need to be another paradigm shift where HMI is via voice control or similar to what Google Glass is attempting to achieve. And when that type of computing truly arrives and Microsoft is not in the game; I am not certain if anyone will be reading or typing such long articles like Woody's or such rebuttals like mine!

I am already aware that Woody has ground his axe to a razor sharp edge about his distaste for Windows8, for whatever reasons that he has. But this new article smells of a character assassination attempt of Windows, which probably pays some of his wages unless he writes for WindowsSecrets as a charitable endeavor. Who was the other Windows evangelist that decided to abandon ship and move to the Apple camp about 4 years ago? Ummmmmm!

But at the current time, it is not Apple or Microsoft that are doing the “movin" (In or Out) >> it is truly Google/Android that is in the spotlight; front and center. They have become the movers and the shakers in the 'mobile' industry! They are the 600pound gorilla in the market, at the current time. It is not Apple! Apple may be doing a swell job at ROI but they are for the higher income consumers that can afford the price of luxury! Apple’s eco-system entails both the hardware as well as the software side. So, their ROI is going to have issues, since these profits need to fuel future R&D that needs to be split between HW/SW. Whereas Google’s model is a leaner system that only worries about a singular mission; that of software (as does Microsoft's business model). Unfortunately as history shows us, as such companies get bigger and bigger, they seem to lose their edge for innovation and other new companies truly "Move In". Take a look at what Cyanogen is doing with their OnePlus One phone at half the price point of Samsung-S5 or HTC-OneM8 (or dare I mention Apple-5S?). But at the current time (and for the foreseeable future), the lead horse appears to be Google (and Android) and not Apple nor Windows.
If the gist of Woody’s article is another doom-and-gloom for Microsoft, then it may also truly be doom-and-gloom for WindowsSecrets newsletter as well!
Upon finishing his article, it sounded like Woody was again cutting the hand that feeds him. N’est-ce pas?

I got rid of my iPad (sold it) recently after 2 years of non usage. I'm surprised it took me that long. (lazy)
With 30 bucks a month for Verizon access, it's just not worth it. And you can't really do anything with it other than play games,
surf the internet, and check email. I guess for many that's the whole deal and that's all they'll need.
And that goes for all these portable devices, they get old too fast (bored). I guess one can only play with them so much.

[rant...
I don't even own a smart phone, they're stupid, and they make you look stupid, standing around fiddling with it as if one will die
if one can't have something to properly occupy their attention.

For me, I need a computer, a real computer, a desktop computer, and that means a Windows computer with an OS that can run real programs...
and a monitor with real-estate, and real storage space to store everything.
Not cloud based crap where you don't really have control, (where the NSA, or some other foreign intelligence agency might have your number)
nor some mickey mouse OS made for a tablet that runs anemic applications. interconnectivity [?] who cares, I don't want/need applications talking to each other.
It all amount to less and less control.

Apple and Linux are the only real alternatives to desktops, but they're a distant second at that, and they'll remain that way for sometime to come.
You tell me what real work is getting done on a tablet or smartphone and I'll reconsider.

DRIVE IMAGINGInvest a little time and energy in a well thought out BACKUP regimen and you will have minimal down time, and headache.

Windows most certainly looks like it's in deep trouble in the areas discussed. However so many truly major companies have failed in the past two decades, I don't think it's particularly unusual. I believe it will happen to both Google and Apple in the next 10-15 years. Consider such giants as Silicon Graphics, WordPerfect (still around, but virtually unimproved/dead), and other great names.

Apple experienced a renewal at the beginning of this century, but wasn't it lucky that Microsoft bailed them out! It seems that either further renewals, or new and amazing projects are needed for continued success. Without Steve Jobs will that happen?

Google, while delivering some wonderful results right now, could one day suffer if for no other reason than as a result of the total lack of personal service that they offer their public. Android is certainly on an upward surge due to such giants as Samsung, not to mention HTC etc. But it will run it's course, especially as Android is not particularly attractive to many people: it simply has lots apps...

Thus I believe that what is currently happening is simply the periodic rise and fall of companies' fortunes. What comes 'round goes 'round..

Although they are trying and, what they have done so far is good, they are not doing it fast enough or being "cool" enough and they need to get a move on. I fear as you do - if it doesn't happen soon, they will remain irrelevant in the eyes of the general consumer. If Google were to bring out a fully fledged desktop operating system tomorrow, I think that would seal the fate of Windows with the general consumer - The majority of general users will move to Google by the end of the year.

It all seems to have gone downhill since Steve Sinofsky left the organisation.

Microsoft need to hire developers to create Apps, because no one else seems to be doing it. The quality of apps doesn't really matter - if you can just say that "we have 1.5million apps", that should do it. The public at the moment are quite shallow, and anyway, as if you will be able to fit 1.5 million apps on your device.

So, yes, I think your observations are spot on. I'll continue to support them, though and hope that they will come thru.

All the best

Tim

Agree up to a point, although I think MS started to foul things up big time when they started to charge for an upgrade to Win7 (Vista SP3 so they should NOT have asked us to fork out for this) from Vista (which I'm still using and I've only had 1 (yes one) bsod over 6 years - spare me the howls I've heard it all before).
Anyway, having worked in data processing/IT for 4 decades and now retired, my line up is as follows this notebook Vista SP2, Samsung Galaxy III smartphone, Linux Mint notebook & satellite TV PVR using Linux.
I use the Samsung more than the others but my view is that the quality of some of the apps is awful. One in particular which while free has other associated costs with it. I avoid Apple - too proprietary & expensive and from what I can see the apps are at about the same level as Android. Linux is OK & when I buy a new machine in the next year I may consider putting that on a shiny new fast bit of kit rather than the 10 year box it's now on. I think the only thing stopping Linux going much further is the inertia of end users in businesses being reluctant to learn something new e.g. LibreOffice. I use this on Windows & Linux leaving casual viewing to the Samsung.
MS really have got to decide if the only area for the consumer is the XBox & stick with it's corporate base for Windows - remember the people who gave us the IBM PC aren't in it any more & very little of what we see today wouldn't be here if it wasn't for that base layer of infrastructure, or at the very least would look a lot different. MS need to look after their corporates but if they really want to motor, they need a really big shake up & create a consumer based platform, maybe expand their use of Android & take on Google in the app space, but they need to do something & not sleepwalk into becoming another IBM like monolith that no longer shapes markets.

The Following User Says Thank You to brush-head For This Useful Post:

After reading your article about Microsoft becoming irrelevant, I agree with the crux of your article. I also read many of the comments posted so far and none touch on the one thought I had during my read. A new market was born and inarguably filled the hole between hose who could run Windows apps and those who could not. The percentage of consumers wanted something "easier" to use for email, messaging, games, etc. and phones were becoming available to fill those needs. At that point, a niche market emerged and now the market has gobbled up a big piece of what could have been Microsoft's market share. Now, even diehard Windows users want to experience the simpler technology. Unless Microsoft successfully markets their own devices that meet or beat the emerging competition, they will be constrained to an ever shrinking market of "smart" consumers who like more options than the "easier" market provides.

Indeed, the vast majority of users will never compose a 100 page report or render video or manipulate images. Looking at Word, for instance, the majority of Word users cannot even understand many of the capabilities that the platform provides; worse, many just are confused by all the options.

The article expresses Moore's law in spades. A mobile phone now has capabilities not even possible on the XT machines of the 1980's. My wife remains confused about all the things her phone can do. So many ordinary folk are using phones and tablets to do things related to simple communications and games. And those users need little else for their tasks. The existence of millions of 'apps' only manages to confuse the majority of users.

Microsoft's efforts in the cloud are improving but they need to worry about their professional users trust. We know that Google intends to mine any information for it's progression as the world's top ad placement agent. And who can guess if Apple can survive into the future.

I'll start by agreeing with some of the prior posters: my sensitive data is never, ever going into the cloud. Also, since I don't use my phone as a computer (don't want to pay for a data plan, have 19 email addresses to manage and I don't use web mail, either), there's the issue of access for my laptop.

As others have posted, I actually do computing on my computer. There are programs that simply cannot be scaled down, and I don't want to be left high and dry if I don't happen to have Internet access.

Now that I'm done with that rant, I'll get back to the original question. I would happily move to Linux if my software vendors would develop compatible versions. One of them, though, which happens to have the best software in its area, is so Microsoft-centric that I can't even use some of the features that require Excel (I use Libre Office). I'll never purchase an Apple product (besides my iPod, which was the only option years ago) because of their proprietary technology. And that's one of the best selling points of Windows: you're not locked into Microsoft's hardware to use it (and I don't believe this will ever become the case; there would be too much of a rebellion).

Part of the problem with this whole debate is that the market is usually oversimplified into consumers and business. There are, of course, many levels in between these two, including the hobbyist. Yes, there are still people who like to build their own computers, or customize them into something they want rather than what the supplier thinks everybody should have. There are also home users who run powerful programs, just as there are businesses that really don't need anything beyond email and spreadsheets.

Is Windows doomed? Not a chance, at least in my lifetime (I figure I have at least another 30 years in me). Will it ever regain its peak market share? No, but who cares? That's a meaningless statistic, when you get down to it. The question is whether it is a viable product, supported by both the user community and the vendor. Market share can vary with the size of the market as well as with the number of users.

If people are too dependent on technology, society as a whole will become irrelevant. People will bow to their technology masters, as their ability to critically think and reason gets tossed in the digital bit bucket. We seem more willing to be distracted by technology than dealing with ourselves and the human condition. There's many coming out of colleges unable to read beyond 7th grade level. Writing in cursive, a former indication that you are progressing towards adulthood, is being dismissed as unnecessary (we have keyboards and fonts for that). The less we do the more is lost. So, I'd say the relevance of a tech company is far from what's really at issue. We go where the money is and the next new thing, I'm no different, but wish we all had a better grip on ourselves and how technology affects us.

If people are too dependent on technology, society as a whole will become irrelevant

You mean, like cars and refrigeration and immunizations? It would seem that we are already there.

I think the one sure thing in this world is that things will always keep changing. Always. And it seems that the changes just keep coming faster and faster. The nice thing about that is that these insipid pads and pods and such will probably just disappear - poof! - unfortunately to be replaced by something newer and more annoying. But I think as long as basic computing is required it will be available. It might become more exotic and expensive again when the likes of Dell and HP are no longer keeping the price down by churning out mass market machines. And you might need to switch to Linux or whatever flavor of Unix becomes popular. But you should still be able to get it for quite a while in the future.

Last fall I took my first steps down that path. I built my own computer for the first time since I got out of the computer business in 1993. I figure that by making my own out of components (subassemblies, really, not chips and capacitors!) I should be able to continue to repair and upgrade my machine for a long time into the future. I don't know how long, but then who amongst us knows how long we will live, anyway?

I use an iPhone and some of its Apps are very useful. But when I want to do work, I use MS office on a desktop. I have yet to find an easier way to use these programs. At present, with all of the emerging security risks, I would be surprised if businesses will take the step of moving their data into the cloud, replacing all of their existing networked desktops with some form of tablet and expecting both security and productivity to improve. I therefore believe that the desktop with Microsoft Windows and associated software still has a long life ahead.

Actually, most businesses are run by people who are in way over their heads. So they tend to follow the latest management fad. It's safer that way. I would expect to see some cloud-like data storage business crop up which markets itself to businesses. And I would expect them to do well as soon as someone writes a How To Manage Your Business Data book extolling the cloud and what it will do for the manager's resume. If it hasn't happened already. I don't pay much attention to self help books.