Table of Contents

Monday, March 07, 2016

2016 Reds Composite Prospect Ranking

This is my annual summary of some selected prospect rankings (2015 rankings here). The short of the methods: players earn "points" for being ranked on top prospect lists from around the internets, and earn more points based on their ranking. The longest list this year was FanGraphs' Top-34, and so a #1 ranking on any list is worth 34 points. Input the lists, total up each player's points, and you get a composite ranking! Tiebreaker is the number of lists as player was ranked on.

MLB.com's pipeline list is a new addition. I'm not particularly enamored with it, but MLB seems to be putting more and more into its prospect coverage, so it seems appropriate to include them. Notably absent is Keith Law, but I only found his top 10, while his top-20 is behind the paywall. I just decided to skip it.

Now, on to the rankings!

Rank

Player

Total Pts

# Lists

Avg Rank

Change

1

Robert Stephenson

202

6

1.3

0

2

Jesse Winker

196

6

2.3

0

3

Cody Reed

191

6

3.2

Trade

4

Amir Garrett

186

6

4.0

+6

5

Tyler Stephenson

168

6

7.0

1st Rnd

6

Nick Travieso

165

6

7.5

-1

6

Alex Blandino

165

6

7.5

+2

8

Keury Mella

161

6

8.2

Trade

9

Jose Peraza

149

5

5.2

Trade

10

Tyler Mahle

115

5

12.0

+12

11

Sal Romano

102

5

14.6

+3

12

Phillip Ervin

91

4

12.3

-1

13

Rookie Davis

85

4

13.8

Trade

14

Scott Schebler

82

4

14.5

Trade

14

John Lamb

82

4

14.5

Trade

16

Antonio Santillan

79

5

19.2

2nd Rnd

17

Eric Jagielo

78

4

15.5

Trade

18

Yorman Rodriguez

64

3

13.7

-11

19

Blake Trahan

62

3

14.3

3rd Rnd

20

Taylor Sparks

41

3

21.3

-2

21

Zack Weiss

40

3

21.7

---

22

Gavin LaValley

36

3

23.0

-7

23

Kyle Waldrop

35

3

23.3

-10

24

Aristides Aquino

33

3

24.0

-13

25

Jon Moscot

32

3

24.3

-5

26

Wyatt Strahan

31

2

19.5

-3

27

Nick Howard

29

2

20.5

-23

28

Ian Kahaloa

26

2

22.0

5th Rnd

29

Jake Cave

23

2

23.5

Rule 5

30

Tanner Rainey

16

2

27.0

2nd Rnd

31

Jose Lopez

16

1

19.0

---

32

Jonathon Crawford

11

2

29.5

-15

33

Calten Daal

9

2

30.5

-5

34

Jackson Stephens

6

1

29.0

-3

35

Brandon Dixon

3

1

32.0

Trade

Not surprisingly, Robert Stephenson (who makes me nervous) and Jesse Winker (who I want to love) remain at the top of the leaderboard. Newcomer Cody Reed clocks in at #3, which is a nice showing for a guy who only starting to raise eyebrows when he was arguably the big prize in last summer's Johnny Cueto trade.

Big Risers include Amir Garrett, who is coming off an outstanding season after finally committing to baseball, and Tyler Mahle, who was quietly brilliant for Dayton last year. Fallers include perpetual underachiever Yorman Rodriguez, who seems low on the Reds' depth chart despite being out of options; Aristides Aquino, who struggled with injuries and underperformance in his first year at A-ball; and, most notably, the plummeting, flaming, catastrophic career of former 1st-round selection Nick Howard, who has yet to show any indication that he knows where the strike zone is.

The Reds have added a lot of talent over the past calendar year. I really like a lot of the guys who came over at the deadline last summer, and that shows up on this list (with Brandon Finnegan missing out because he has lost rookie eligibility). I'm not particularly excited about a lot of the talent they've added this offseason, but they certainly have added some depth. If at least a few of those go on to be useful pieces, then the offseason has to be seen as a passable success.