Will the Ladies figure skating be a repeat of 2006? Is Yu-Na really unbeatable?

Nagano 1998: Tara Lipinski lands 7 triples in her LP to take the OGM
Salt Lake City 2002: Sarah Hughes lands 7 triples in her LP to take the OGM
Turin 2006: Shizuka Arakawa lands 5 triples to take home the OGM

So many people are hyping both Mao Asada and Yu-Na Kim as possibly the two most talented athletes Ladies figure skating has ever seen. With Mao's 3A, and Yu-Na's 3Lz+3T, both have the jumping ability and, as clearly seen in the past several seasons, the artistic ability to match it. Commentators are saying Yu-Na is unbeatable, with only two losing both the '08 Worlds and '09 GPF to Mao Asada and collecting a string of gold medals from every event she has entered since and including the 2009 World Championships? It sounds a lot more impressive than it is, and all of the talk about 3+3 jumps and 3A's make it seem like the top ladies going for the podium could have been going for the Mens Podium as well.

When you really look at it, the field is a bit more open (in my honest opinion) than most people think. In direct response to a comment about a comparison of GOE's with Mao and Yu-Na, Mao has topped the amount of GOEs earned by Yu-Na in both the SP and LP of their most recent showings... 4CC's for Mao and the GPF for Yu-Na. The obvious thing to see is that since capturing the World title with a 5-triple program, Yu-Na has won all of the international events she has entered (TEB, Skate America, and the GPF). That sounds like an instant OGM, but if you really look at it... Yu-Na's Free Skate scores cross a range of 23 points (the highest being her first competition at TEB containing 5 triples). That's a pretty crucial gap when one is a record, a record made with only 5 clean triples when many ladies are planning and, if they live up to the Olympic moment, could land 7. The other score has been beaten this season by Mao Asada, Miki Ando, Rachael Flatt, Akiko Suzuki, and Joannie Rochette during the Grand Prix as well.

Looking back at Yu-Na's 3 biggest (and only defeats since the beginning of 2007), we have the 2007 World Championships where Miki Ando took home gold with 7 clean triple jumps, positive GOEs, and improved artistry over years past, Mao Asada took home silver with 6 clean triple jumps including a 3A and a 3F+3Lo combo and top PCS marks, while Yu-Na Kim took home the bronze with 5 clean triples. 2008 Worlds put Mao at the top of the podium with 6 triples, 2 in combination, and Carolina Kostner in Silver with 6 triples as well, and Yu-Na in Bronze with 4 clean triples with the highest PCS scores of the night. Finally was the '08-'09 GPF, where Mao skated away with Yu-Na's gold for the last time by putting out a 5 triple short program, including two 3A's, while Yu-Na took Silver, despite a lead in the Short Program, with only 4 triples, but her 3-3 included for big points. Their PCS scores were only 1 point apart.

Those past competitions put out some pretty tough material, but fast forward to this year, and we have Yu-Na breaking a SP record with only 5 triples, then claiming her 2nd Gold at Skate America with only 3 clean triples, and skating away with the GPF Gold with only 4. Her 3Lz+3T combo has also been either missing or underrotated since the Skate America SP.

If looking at the past proves anything, it's that Kim's artistry should give her atleast a one jump buffer over other competitors. But with that being said, Mao Asada already put out 5 clean triples, including the 3A, at 4CC's compared to Yu-Na's last 4 triple, 3-3 combo-less program. History also seems to show that Yu-Na keeps up to par under CoP without the same amount of jumps and can win the OGM with 4 or 5 clean triple jumps. But could there be the Tara Lipinski or Sarah Hughes hiding somewhere to skate away with the medal that, according to what seems to be the entire world, is Yu-Na's to lose? And could this possibility be even more relevant considering the PCS scores of the Mens competition?

My gut feeling still says Yu-Na will end up on the top of the podium, and given all of her hard work, dedication, and talent, she is very deserving of the OGM. But somehow it still seems like the ladies event is shaping up more to be like Turin: a battle of rumors of "X has a quad salchow," "Y has a 3-3-3," "Z will have a 3Lz+3T", etc., but in the end the medal will probably be won without all that extra jazz, no matter how much this competition is being hyped up to be.

Yuna is not unbeatable. No skater is for that matter. Just ask Plushenko (if he admits ). On the surface, she's had a terrific run of success but if you look at it, she's also had a good stroke of fortune in the previous year. Her rival Mao has been struggling all year long. Joannie has been struggling as well and Miki has not been skating to her potential. The truth is no other skater besides Yuna has been skating that well recently, so in that sense, Yuna can be seen as unbeatable because she's clearly performing the best as of now. However, it is all relative though, because if on Olympic night, these other skaters have got their game back and unleash all of their potential, then it may not be so easy for Yuna. It would be interesting to see how the competition fares if everyone puts out their best or very good performances. I'm sure it will be very exciting!

Yuna is not unbeatable, but I really don't think it will be Mao who beats her if Yuna does not win. Mao's programs I find extremely bland and boring this year, and no matter what people say about PCS, Mao with a clean LP at 4CC scored 7 points less than Yuna with a LP sans 3flip at TEB. I really just don't see her Bells of Moscow winning Olympic Gold, though I could be wrong. I don't think it will be Joannie either, given her inconsistency and added pressure of skating in her home country. If anyone is going to beat Yuna for the gold, my money is on Miki. If she hits her 3lz-3lo and 2a-3t she could very well have the highest TES should Yuna falter and Mao have axel trouble. She also gets good PCS and her programs this season, especially the LP, are nice.

Akiko and Rachael have a good shot at medaling, but I don't think they will get gold even if the favorites falter. Even when they hit 7 jump programs, internationally the scores have been below 120, scores Mao, Yuna, Miki, Joannie can beat with a few mistakes. The other thing is that I think both Akiko and Rachael could be out of the last group after the SP, a situation kind of like Oda. Suzuki's jump layout is not as hard as the other ladies and where Rachael isn't as strong artistically and in terms of spins and spirals, this will be more noticeable in the SP. They will likely both rise in the standings with the LP. I actually think Carolina and Mirai might be ahead of Akiko and Rachael after the SP, and maybe even Laura Lepisto if she hits her 3-3 and Sarah Meier if she gets higher levels for her spins.

Of course, she's beatable. The Grand Priz Finals was not her best outing. Mao's had a tough time this year, but her 4C's showing was a vast improvement and she's on the right track.

The key will be how the Ladies handle the pressure of expectations. Kim Yu-na is the sole hope of her country in this discipline. If anything, Mao's difficult year may or may not lessen the pressure, as well as having other strong skaters from Japan for the country to focus on.

Yuna is not unbeatable. No skater is for that matter. Just ask Plushenko (if he admits ). On the surface, she's had a terrific run of success but if you look at it, she's also had a good stroke of fortune in the previous year. Her rival Mao has been struggling all year long. Joannie has been struggling as well and Miki has not been skating to her potential. The truth is no other skater besides Yuna has been skating that well recently, so in that sense, Yuna can be seen as unbeatable because she's clearly performing the best as of now. However, it is all relative though, because if on Olympic night, these other skaters have got their game back and unleash all of their potential, then it may not be so easy for Yuna. It would be interesting to see how the competition fares if everyone puts out their best or very good performances. I'm sure it will be very exciting!

I agree with the idea that no one is unbeatable. however, i don't think we can call what yuna has done last year at world a "good stroke of fortune." she was injury-free for the first time and outskated everyone else, hands down. she fought hard and earned every bit of it. would you say that that yuna couldn't have earned gold at 09 world if other skaters didn't struggle with her sp and lp back then? her success was not given to her on a silver platter. if you call that a fortune then same goes for mao and miki. Two of them should thank the skating god that yuna had serious injury in 07-08.

sigh. seriously i don't know what the point of this thread is. it's like another skater using aranjuez for their program. no one is unbeatable, EVER. I hope bethissoawesome got the answer he/she wanted.

I agree with the idea that no one is unbeatable. however, i don't think we can call what yuna has done last year at world a "good stroke of fortune." she was injury-free for the first time and outskated everyone else, hands down. she fought hard and earned every bit of it. would you say that that yuna couldn't have earned gold at 09 world if other skaters didn't struggle with her sp and lp back then? her success was not given to her on a silver platter. if you call that a fortune then same goes for mao and miki. Two of them should thank the skating god that yuna had serious injury in 07-08.

I said for the previous year not just one event. I think Kim was kind of lucky that she can make mistakes at some of the GP events and still win because her competition haven't been that strong. Also I'm really tired of the argument that just because Yuna was injured, she didn't win those two worlds before. Because if you check, she wasn't getting those high PCS she is getting now in previous years. Also, I do think luck plays a role in every event and for every skater but it doesn't take away from what the athlete has accomplished. Every athlete works hard to achieve their goal but you also need a bit of luck sometimes especially in skating because ice is slippery.

I said for the previous year not just one event. I think Kim was kind of lucky that she can make mistakes at some of the GP events and still win because her competition haven't been that strong. Also I'm really tired of the argument that just because Yuna was injured, she didn't win those two worlds before. Because if you check, she wasn't getting those high PCS she is getting now in previous years.

...but you said you think kim was lucky because other skaters struggled all year along and didn't skate to full potential? I post reply to what you wrote, not what you think.
and whether you are sick of hearing about the injury or not, it was what it was.

I also feel that Yuna will win; however, I think ALL of the skaters work hard, are dedicated and talented.

I don't think bethissoawesome was neglecting other skaters by saying kim is dedicated and talented. good lord, does everything have to be black or white? Afterall, "kim is a hard worker" doesn't equal "others are not."