Marriage, divorce rates higher in the South, lower in Northeast

By Sharon Jayson, USA TODAY

Where you live may influence your attitudes and actions toward marriage and divorce more than you think, suggests a federal report out today that gives the clearest picture in 20 years about the evolution of marriage and divorce across the USA.

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Nationally the most striking finding is a continued clear pattern toward later ages at first marriage.

Nationally the most striking finding is a continued clear pattern toward later ages at first marriage.

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The report, from the U.S. Census, finds distinct regional differences, with states in the Northeast having the lowest marriage rates and lowest divorce rates for both men and women, and states in the South having the highest. New Jersey is among those with the lowest for both sexes; states with high rates for both men and women include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas.

"This does not mean you should move to the Northeast if you want your marriage to last," says sociologist Andrew Cherlin of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, who has reviewed the data.

In the South, people tend to marry earlier and often have less education, both of which increase divorce risk, he says. Those in the Northeast tend to have more education and marry later. "The lesson here is that a higher level of education leads to more stable families. Sometimes the data surprises people because regions we think of as socially conservative have higher rates of divorce, but that's largely because people have less education and marry younger."

The analysis is the first such comprehensive look at state and national data since a 1991 report based on 1988 data from the National Center for Health Statistics, which then stopped collecting such data. After a 20-year gap, Census began collecting the data reflected in this report, based on 3 million households in the 2009 American Community Survey.

"It's been such long time since we've been able to paint regional and a state-by-state picture; it really shows different marriage philosophies and how we have different marriage cultures in the same nation," says Census family demographer Diana Elliott .

Because data were collected during the height of the recession, it's possible they might even understate rates, Cherlin says. "Single people have postponed marriage; married people have postponed divorce."

Nationally, though, the most striking finding is a continued clear pattern toward later ages at first marriage, which have been inching up for 30 years. "We're at the point now that it's higher than before the turn of the century," says Census family demographer Diana Elliott. In 1890 it was 26.1 for men, 22 for women. The new data put men at 28.4, women at 26.5.

"What is interesting, I think, is that it continues to be delayed," Elliott says. "I read articles in the 1980s when they were noticing this change in the age of first marriage and they didn't know where it was going to end and we still don't know. If you look historically, it hasn't reached the apex yet. It hasn't started leveling out."

Experts say this upward trend isn't likely to end just yet.

"I think it will peak no higher than around 30 for women," says psychologist Howard Markman, co-director of the Center for Marital and Family Studies, University of Denver.

"Most of us in the field think it has to do with dramatic increase over time in cohabitation — not as an alternative to marriage, but for most people it is a developmental stage toward marriage," he says. Markman says young people now focus on their careers and economic stability more than in the past and he expects that to continue as more women than men seek higher education. "It will level off at the point where women are starting to feel like they want to be married and start having a family."

Cherlin agrees that the median age could rise by a few more years before it peaks; in Spain and Italy, for example, the ages at first marriage are around 30.

"It's not going to go up forever," Cherlin agrees. "There are biological reasons why the marriage age is not going to rise by more than few more years — namely men and women need to have time to have children."

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