By CASEY SEILER State editor

Published 1:00 am, Tuesday, December 22, 2009

ALBANY -- Taxpayers would face property tax boosts of almost 8 percent to make up for the departure of federal stimulus funds in the 2011-2012 fiscal year, according to an analysis from the office of state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli. That increase would be absent any cuts to school budgets or potential replenishment of the lost funds by state or federal actions.

"ARRA funding has helped ease some of the budget pain for school districts and taxpayers," DiNapoli said in a statement. "But that money stops in 2011-2012, and when it does New York's schools face a $2 billion funding gap. That's a big hole to fill.

"The time to start thinking about how to fill that hole is now, not when the money is already gone," DiNapoli said.

The problem could be especially acute in the Capital Region, where districts are counting on stimulus funds for an average of 5.2 percent of their operating budgets in 2009-10. Those amounts range from 4.1 percent for Troy, 4.5 percent in Albany, 5.1 percent in Shenendehowa and Saratoga Springs, and 10.1 percent in Schenectady, according to the comptroller's findings.

DiNapoli's analysis also projected that foundation aid -- the main source of school aid to most districts -- will increase by 17 percent over the next three years. To "backfill" stimulus funding and meet this commitment, the state would need to increase its share of funding by $4.1 billion, or 31 percent, between 2010-11 and 2012-13. That's a scenario the comptroller's report deemed "unlikely ... given the state's fiscal difficulties."

The analysis comes out as Gov. David Paterson and school districts are at odds over Paterson's decision to hold back 10 percent of the state's Dec. 15 aid payment due to fiscal uncertainty about week-to-week state revenue -- a conflict likely to get worse as talks for the 2010-2011 budget get rolling.

"Gov. Paterson has consistently said that temporary federal stimulus funding, while welcome, will not solve our long-term financial difficulties," said Matt Anderson, spokesman for the Budget Division. "That's why he'll continue to advocate for local mandate reform initiatives to lower costs for property taxpayers and fiscally responsible measures to bring our state's more than $40 billion structural budget deficit under control.

"It's not a surprise ... that the loss of stimulus funds would leave a big hole," said Carl Korn, spokesman for New York State United Teachers union. Korn also said that the potential tightening of funds made it more imperative for New York "to keep its promise to adequately fund schools and provide a sound, basic education."