Global food commodities prices are likely to remain subdued during the rest of the current calendar and the next year following a sharp upwards revision in their output forecasts by the global monitoring agency the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations.
FAO in its latest report has forecast global cereal output at 2,571 million tonnes for the calendar year 2016, 1.5 per cent rise from their production reported in 2015. Apart from cereals, the recovery in the output of crude palm oil across major producing state hints at its price decline in coming days…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil bulls had a good ride in the last eight months. The black gold rallied, from mid-$20s in January to the mid-$50s in late October. But economic fundamentals have turned bumpy for oil bulls in the last couple of weeks, with oil heading towards the $40-mark rather than the $60-mark as some had expected.
And things will continue to be bumpy in the near future. Oil is heading back to the January lows, as hopes of an OPEC output freeze have been fading…………………………………….Full Article: Source

OPEC members are making the task of oil market rebalancing harder by maximizing their production ahead of a ministerial conference at the end of November.
OPEC output is actually increasing, putting downward pressure on oil prices, even while the organization’s members are in talks designed to reduce output in future, with the intention of pushing prices up. Not for the first time, OPEC’s members are engaged in a high stakes game of chicken…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Base metal prices soared this week, with copper forging above $6,000 per tonne as Donald Trump’s election victory sparked hopes of booming demand to meet the president-elect’s pledge on infrastructure spending.
Industrial metals also scored multi-year and multi-month peaks on hopes of resurgent demand from top global consumer China. Copper, used in plumbing, heating, electrical and telecommunications wiring, peaked Friday at $6,025.50 — the highest price for almost one and a half years…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Unprecedented steps by Beijing to snuff out a months-long rally in coal prices are casting fresh doubts on China’s drive to become a global price-setting hub for commodities worth trillions of dollars. The world’s top consumer of many raw materials has been pushing to boost its influence on pricing of everything from iron ore to oil, mainly through steps such as promoting Chinese futures contracts as regional or global benchmarks.
But analysts and traders said that a wave of moves to cool coal prices, which surged as a side-effect of radical government measures to fight pollution by curbing mining, show that Beijing could be reluctant to let markets trade freely and openly…………………………………….Full Article: Source

World food prices edged up in October to continue an upward trend since January, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday, adding that prospects for global cereal output had improved.
Barring a slight dip in July, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index has steadily increased from a seven-year low hit in the first month of this year. The index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 172.6 points in October, 0.7 per cent above the month before and 9.1 per cent above October last year…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that North Sea Brent crude oil prices will average $43 per barrel in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $43/b in 2016 and $50/b in 2017.
A range from $35/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in February 2017 with 95 percent confidence, according to the report. The 95 percent confidence interval for market expectations widens over time, with lower and upper limits of $27/b and $96/b for prices in December 2017, said EIA…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Amid growing expectations of rising inflation or even promises of more economic stimulus, analysts seem divided as to how gold will perform in the longer term and the reasons for owning the precious metal in the first place.
Gold fell Thursday after seeing significant gains on the previous day. Gold fell back to below $1,300 a troy ounce after reaching a six week-high on Wednesday on the news that Donald Trump had been elected as the next U.S. president…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Donald Trump pulled off an upset victory Tuesday for the US Presidency, overcoming Hillary Clinton, who despite recent polls showed that the former Senator had a sizeable lead heading into the election. Yet by the end of the count, it was Trump who captured the required 270+ electoral college votes to win.
And as most major world markets were pricing in an outcome in line with the polls, chaos erupted within the financial markets as votes began to show Trump securing a probable victory. If there is one thing markets hate it is uncertainty. And as Trump will be the first US President without prior government experience to step into office, the outcome is certainly giving markets plenty to worry about…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Gold price gains of 4.5% overnight Tuesday were all erased by the close of London trade yesterday, with a $20 rebound then fading on Thursday as world stock markets extended their rally following Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US presidential election.
Japan’s Topix index closed 5.8% higher, reversing the previous day’s losses, and Eurozone equities rose another 0.5% as the start of Thursday’s US trading approached. Major government bond prices, in contrast, continued to fall amid analyst talk of Trump’s infrastructure and spending plans – as well as inflation – driving 10-year US bond yields above 2.00% for the first time since January…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Metals prices soar amid hopes Trump’s infrastructure policies will boost demand: zinc surges to 5.5-year high while copper and nickel find 16-month high. Copper has surged more than five per cent to a 16-month high as speculation that US infrastructure spending could jump under a Republican administration unleashed a wave of interest in industrial metals.
Zinc hit a five-and-a-half-year peak and nickel was at its highest since July 2015 on expectations that US president-elect Donald Trump could boost domestic construction spending. London Metal Exchange copper hit a peak of $US5,714 a tonne on Thursday, its highest since July 2015, and closed up 3.5 per cent at $US5,601 a tonne, extending Wednesday’s 3.4 per cent rise…………………………………..Full Article: Source

Coal sector is among those that could benefit from Trump’s win; picture for oil isn’t straightforward. Investors and analysts predicted further volatility for commodities from gold and oil to coal following Donald Trump’s election victory.
The effects could range from a boost to these U.S. dollar-denominated markets because of a weaker greenback to potential benefits for copper as a result of a possible rise in infrastructure spending………………………………………Full Article: Source

Opec meeting will be critical but there are other factors at play. Since the production cartel Opec provisionally agreed to work towards cutting oil output in late September, prices rallied to a year-high of close to $54 a barrel before slipping all the way back to almost $45.
As the group attempts to hammer out a deal to finalise the implementation of the cut ahead of its next official meeting on November 30, here are the things that should define the next move in a volatile year for the crude price………………………………………Full Article: Source

The average price of a barrel of oil is expected to stand just above $65 in 2021 as compared to $45 today, according to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2016. The report was unveiled on the second day of the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC).
It came after industry leaders expressed optimism about recovery on Monday. Record-low oil prices have hit the finances of oil-developing countries hard. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo said oil producers had hit the “bottom” and survived, but warned they had to stop cutting and invest in research and exploration again………………………………………Full Article: Source

A Donald Trump presidency could mean the return of a risk premium for oil prices, said Tim Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of trading firm Auspice Capital advisors.
During his campaign, Trump cast himself as fossil-fuel friendly. He’s talked about increasing oil and gas production in the United States, reducing dependence on Middle East oil, and approving the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to refineries in the U.S. gulf. But he’s provided few details, which could lift oil prices because of the potential for dramatic changes, Calgary-based Pickering said………………………………………Full Article: Source

The price of gold turned slightly negative from the sharp gains made earlier on Wednesday, after a conciliatory victory speech from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump also helped the dollar rebound.
Gold had surged by nearly 5 percent to a six-week high of $1,337.40 an ounce as it emerged that the Republican nominee had triumphed over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential election, a surprise for markets which prompted investors to seek refuge in perceived safe-haven assets like gold………………………………………Full Article: Source

Gains based on rise in U.S. infrastructure spending after Trump triumph and optimism over China demand. Copper rose to a fresh one-year high on Wednesday, boosted by bets on a rise in infrastructure spending and continued optimism over China demand.
Copper for December delivery settled up 2.9% at $2.4480 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, its biggest one-day gain in over a year. Wednesday marked the 13th consecutive session of gains for copper, the longest streak in at least 28 years………………………………………Full Article: Source

The average price for crude will reach $155 per barrel in nominal terms by 2040, which is the equivalent of $92 in real prices in 2015, according to OPEC’s annual World Oil Outlook report released on Tuesday.
The producer group assumes that the price for the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), the blend benchmark used by the cartel’s members, will be around $40 this year. The price recovery will continue with $5 increments every year, reaching over $60 a barrel up to 2021…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The rise in gold prices this year has made the metal less appealing to buyers across the world. Global gold demand slumped 10% year-on-year in Q3 to 993 tonnes, according to a quarterly report from the World Gold Council published Tuesday.
Jewelry demand fell in nearly every consumer market that the council follows, sliding 21% year-on-year in the third quarter to 493 tonnes. The drop was the biggest in two years…………………………………….Full Article: Source

A Donald Trump win in the US presidential election – the result is due in a few hours – would be decidedly bullish for gold and could push gold prices to up to $1,400 per oz, analysts said. Hillary Clinton’s policies are also bullish for gold, some noted, but not nearly to the same extent of Trump’s, they said.
Polls to elect the 45th US President will close between 12am and 6am GMT. Factors such as economic data, comments for the US central bank, physical demand, purchases by central banks and economic and political developments outside the US “may mean little for gold until well after the US elections”, HSBC analyst James Steel said…………………………………….Full Article: Source

After a five-year downturn, the world’s least-loved commodity is burning brightly again. The price of coking coal has just topped $300 a tonne for the first time since 2011 as steel mills in Asia scramble for supplies.
Premium hard Australian coking coal rose 6 per cent to $307.2 a tonne on Tuesday, extending gains since April to 250 per cent, according to a price assessment from the Steel Index. The last time coking – this year’s best performing commodity – was trading at these levels was in 2011 after severe flooding disrupted supplies from Australia, a leading producer…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Copper has risen during 11 of the last 12 trading sessions, adding nearly 11% in two weeks. While other industrial metals and steelmaking raw materials have jumped in value this year, the bellwether metal has advanced a more modest 8% this year.
The copper price hit six year lows in January following a 26% decline in 2015, the fourth year in a row of price erosion. While the price of copper appears to have found a floor above $2.00 a pound a new note by BMI Research, a Fitch company, says that any gains going into 2017 would be modest…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Banks in WSJ survey predict Brent crude will average $56 a barrel next year. With oil prices trading near multiweek lows, analysts believe next year won’t be much better.
A survey of 14 investment banks by The Wall Street Journal predicts that oil prices will stay below $60 a barrel in 2017. Last summer, many of the same banks were predicting oil prices would rise to more than $70 a barrel this year—a level that has now been deferred to 2018. Brent, the international oil-price gauge, traded at $47.28 a barrel midday Thursday………………………………………Full Article: Source

Falling oil prices may dash the industry’s hopes for a steady recovery after energy company executives spent the past few weeks reassuring investors they’re on the mend after a crushing downturn.
U.S. oil prices tumbled 3 percent Wednesday following a report that the nation’s commercial stockpiles of oil jumped by 14.4 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly increase in the 34 years the Energy Department began tracking storage levels………………………………………Full Article: Source

Year to date gold is up more than 20% in price, thanks mainly to investors in physically-backed gold ETFs and safe haven buying, underpinned by continuing purchases by central banks.
Year-to-date, the official sector has added 52 tonnes of gold up to end-September this year compared to over 150 tonnes during the same period last year according to the latest data from the World Gold Council (after stripping China’s once off announcement of 604 tonnes of purchases which was likely spread out over several years). Russia remains a big buyer but Venezuela’s gold sales have negatively impacted overall net purchases………………………………………Full Article: Source

Bottom line, the U.S. data show a world that is still oversupplied with oil. Oil prices plunged after a record 14.4-million barrel jump in U.S. crude supply, and they could continue to fall toward $40 a barrel or lower, unless OPEC and global producers make progress on a production deal.
“In the absence of stronger statements or better weekly stats, you’ll see it trending down. The problem is the market is really long at this point,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Two years after the oil price collapse sent Alberta’s economy into a tailspin, ATB Financial suggests the downturn is over and the province’s fortunes will rise in 2017. The Alberta bank says the provincial economy will turn the corner next year.
“Our research suggests that the worst of the 2015-16 oil price downturn is now behind us,” said Todd Hirsch, ATB’s chief economist in a statement. “Oil prices should continue to grow modestly in 2017. That will bring stability to our province’s petroleum sector, but not growth. Hiring and resumption of investment will be weak in 2017.”……………………………………Full Article: Source

A Clinton win would be supportive of the gold price, but a Trump triumph could spark as much as a $200 an ounce jump in the price HSBC Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel is quoted by Bloomberg as saying adding that the metal could “enjoy at least a 8 percent jump whoever wins the race”:
Both candidates have espoused trade policies that could stimulate demand, with gold offering a potential “protection against protectionism,” he says. Even the relatively more internationalist Democratic candidate has argued for the renegotiation of longstanding free-trade agreements…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The gold price is threatening to break back through the $1,300 an ounce mark for the first time in a month, after a shock poll put Donald Trump in the lead in the race for the White House.
FXTM Chief Market Strategist Hussein Sayed told The Independent global markets are in the “early stage of panic”, following the news that the Republican has taken a one-point lead in a poll for ABC News and the Washington Post. That lead is well inside the margin of error, but it still prompted a sell-off that sent shares in Asia to a seven-week low and left all major international equity benchmarks in the red…………………………………….Full Article: Source

“Gold prices rise on India’s Diwali demand,” said a UK newspaper story on Saturday morning. “Gold extends gains, buoyed by Indian festival,” agreed a report from the news-wires. It’s a nice story, simple and logical, but badly wrong.
The Hindu festival of Diwali brings the single biggest shopping day for physical gold anywhere in the world. International gold prices popped higher last week, adding 0.7% against even the rising US dollar, as the 5-day festivities culminated with the ‘festival of lights’ on Sunday…………………………………….Full Article: Source

South Korea’s aluminum premiums rose $2/mt week on week to be assessed at $67-$70/mt plus LME cash, CIF Busan, Wednesday, up from $65-$68/mt last week.
Most of the support came from China, which is importing P1020 following a dramatic surge in domestic aluminum prices in the last two weeks. On average, China has been paying premiums of $85-$90/mt CIF Shanghai for imported metal, sources said. “Everyone is moving South Korean stocks to China,” a Western trader said…………………………………….Full Article: Source

As a result of an improvement in flat steel demand, especially for thicker material, prices are increasing steadily on both the Iran Mercantile Exchange and the off-exchange market, S&P Global Platts learned from IME and market sources.
Some 88,000 mt of sheet produced by Mobarakeh Steel Company was traded on the IME on Tuesday, indicating a strong level of demand. Different sizes of MSC-produced hot rolled coil traded at Rial 16.54 million-17.34 million/mt ($456-$479/mt), which is about 6% more than last week’s trade levels. CRC traded at Riyal 20.87 million/mt, a 10% increase week on week…………………………………….Full Article: Source

The Reserve Bank’s index of commodity prices is up by the biggest monthly margin since April 2010, on a foreign currency basis. The 9.5 per cent rise in October was driven mainly by the higher price of coking coal, but both base metals and rural commodities were up on average in the month as well.
Annual growth came in at 16.0 per cent. However, using spot market prices rather than actual prices paid, the index was up by 10.1 per cent in the month and by 34.2 per cent through the year, the RBA said……………………………………Full Article: Source

After a dreadful 2015, commodity markets have shown signs of life this year, providing a boost for emerging economies. The main contributor has been crude oil, which dropped to about $35 a barrel in January before reaching almost $50 in the summer.
It is still a far cry from the levels of 2014, when oil prices hovered around $100, but the rebound has abated fears of a prolonged slump. Oil has not been the only beneficiary, as increased confidence in the Chinese and American economies has taken the cloud off several commodity sectors……………………………………Full Article: Source

Crude oil prices could crash more than 10% if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fails at implementing a plan to curb output when it meets later in November, Goldman Sachs warns.
In a note dated Oct. 31, the Wall Street analysts said a coordinated deal to limit oil production is looking increasingly unlikely, “with weakening oil fundamentals warranting oil prices in the low $40s/bbl in our view if OPEC is unable to deliver a convincing agreement.” The bank didn’t specify whether it was looking at prices for Brent LCOF7, -0.66% or West Texas Intermediate……………………………………Full Article: Source

Oil prices are set to remain under pressure until Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC prove they can show how they will remove enough barrels from the market to accelerate the rebalancing process.
Benchmark Brent futures prices surged more than $8 per barrel over the course of nine trading sessions after OPEC members announced a surprise framework agreement on Sept. 28 to cut production. The agreement caught hedge funds and other money managers off guard with an unusually large number of short positions, which helped squeeze the market higher in a blistering short-covering rally……………………………………Full Article: Source

With Iraq wanting to exit and uncertainty over Russian commitment to an output cut, the prospects for oil to hit US$55-US$60 per barrel appear dim, at least for the moment. “History has shown that sustaining production cuts has never been easy. Any headline news on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members not toeing the line will create price pressures,” said Thomas Yong, CEO, Fortress Capital.
As it is, oil prices are struggling at around US$50 per barrel. “Already lingering doubts about the oil deal have sent prices struggling to stay firmly above US$50 per barrel. Without the full commitment from all Opec members to the output cut deal, and backing from major non-Opec members, the deal will likely fall through,” said Lee Heng Guie, executive director, Socio Economic Research Centre…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Two important meetings passed at the weekend without any specific agreement on Opec member state supply cuts or support from other oil producers for an output deal next month.
With only a month to go until the 14-nation cartel is due to finalise its deal to cut overall exports by up to one million barrels a day, the failures have added to fears the agreement will ever be ratified. Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, was this morning trading at $49.54 a barrel, 23 cents above its overnight nadir that marked the lowest level since 30 September…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Oil prices are set to remain under pressure until Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC prove they can show how they will remove enough barrels from the market to accelerate the rebalancing process. Benchmark Brent futures prices surged more than $8 per barrel over the course of nine trading sessions after OPEC members announced a surprise framework agreement on Sept. 28 to cut production.
The agreement caught hedge funds and other money managers off guard with an unusually large number of short positions, which helped squeeze the market higher in a blistering short-covering rally…………………………………….Full Article: Source

Gold is set to advance by as much as 15 percent before the end of next year as the US Federal Reserve goes slow on increasing interest rates and the dollar remains subdued, buoying bullion demand, according to Templeton Emerging Markets Group.
“The Fed is going to increase the rates by a little bit, but not excessively, and there is no guarantee that a rise in interest rates will put people off,” executive chairman Mark Mobius said in an interview at a Bloomberg event in Mumbai. “A lot will depend on the real rates.”……………………………………Full Article: Source

After recovering from its recent lows, the price of oil should continue to rise, in the short term at least, experts say. A trend towards equilibrium in the continuing battle between supply and demand, and a rare agreement between the members of Opec, the oil cartel, are among the reasons.
The price of oil is notoriously difficult to project, and any prediction needs to be taken with a hefty dose of salt. However, there appear to be compelling arguments in favour of a continued recovery in the oil price and Telegraph Money has rounded up a selection, along with the opposite view……………………………………..Full Article: Source

The iron ore price has jumped to a six-month high, seemingly defying gravity amid fresh analyst calls for the commodity to drop back below the $US50 level. Iron ore rose 1.3 per cent to $US63.10 a tonne in the most recent session, according to The Steel Index, from $US62.30 the previous day.
The commodity is at its highest point since April 29, when it settled at $US65.20. Despite taking a breather late last week, iron ore has been rallying recently, falling only once in the last 15 sessions……………………………………..Full Article: Source

An unprecedented surge in coal prices in the past few months to more than double their June levels is a big fillip for Glencore and Noble, who are among the biggest traders of thermal coal, which is used to produce electricity.
They are taking advantage of their mine production, storage facilities and shipping fleets to provide users of coal with cargoes at short notice and at premium prices, sources familiar with recent deals told Reuters. They are also striking longer-term supply deals, also on rich terms, the sources said…………………………………..Full Article: Source

International oil price benchmark Brent crude fell below $50 a barrel for the first time in three weeks yesterday following news that the likes of Iraq, Nigeria and Libya may opt out of an Opec agreement to cut production.
Apparent dissent in the ranks is adding to fears the deal, which is seen as an essential help to rebalance an oversupplied market, will never be fully agreed. Nevertheless, Brent crude returned to a shade above $50 as prices rebounded last night and this morning, in part because of building unrest in Opec member state Venezuela, which has seen “escalating protests… against the rule of President Nicolas Maduro”, says Reuters……………………………………Full Article: Source

Opec takes a bigger share of the market but that effort comes at a cost. Opec’s decision to push for production cuts last month has led many to declare the US shale oil industry as the biggest winner from a two-year price war.
The wildcatters of the US shale patch successfully cut costs and consolidated operations to weather the storm of $40 oil, leaving behind a leaner more resilient industry that should benefit as prices recover……………………………………Full Article: Source

Gold prices are up more than 19% so far this year, but there may be more to come, this according to two veteran investors Mary-Anne & Pamela Aden — known in the industry as the Aden Sisters.
Speaking with Kitco News, the Adens said they think 2017 will be the “turnaround year” for the gold sector. “We think this is a great buying time,” they told Daniela Cambone on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference……………………………………Full Article: Source

Physical demand for gold remained at “pitiful levels” for the third successive quarter, down 30% year-on-year in the three months to September 30, hindered by sharply higher prices in the aftermath of the British referendum to leave the UK (Brexit), reports markets analyst Thomson Reuters GFMS.
Nevertheless, the firm’s latest gold survey shows that multiyear price highs have helped to send scrap flows up by a fifth, thereby taking total supply to a level that matches the highest quarterly amount, last recorded in the fourth quarter of 2012……………………………………Full Article: Source

According to analysts from Templeton Emerging Markets Group, by year-end the gold price action will rise by 15 percent. Federal Reserve will raise rates very slowly and the upward pressure on the US dollar will extinguish quickly.
The Fed will raise the rate slightly and will not rush to further action. In addition, there is no guarantee that a slight tightening of monetary policy will change the mood in the market. Much will depend on the real rates………………………………….Full Article: Source

The chance of an agreement to freeze or cut crude output when OPEC members meet next month might appear more distant now Iraq has joined those asking for an exemption, but investors are ramping up their bets that oil prices will rally.
The price of oil has this month risen to its highest so far this year, having gained more than 10 per cent in the four weeks since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut production and rein excess global supply…………………………………..Full Article: Source

The World Bank has just upped its oil price forecast for 2017, saying it now expects average prices to be US $55 a barrel over the next year. That’s US$2 more than its earlier forecast, which is a reflection that at least some shred of optimism is returning to the oil market.
In late September, Saudi Arabia managed to persuade its OPEC co-members to consider a reduction in their combined crude oil output in a bid to, as they called it, restore balance to the oil markets. Balance, in this context, invariably means higher prices that would help Saudi Arabia – and other oil-dependent producers – plug growing budget deficits, and help Venezuela and Nigeria stave off a complete economic collapse…………………………………..Full Article: Source