The state of the nation is as good as it is going to get during this business cycle — at least from an economic perspective. On that, we should be a lot more interested in what Janet Yellen has to say in her last FOMC press conference.

Volatility is still elevated in US equity markets. Rising real yields are the big factor there. All signs are that real yields can continue to rise. But going forward, globally, some other issues to consider are household debt and the ECB’s likely regime shift.

Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will rise.