Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.

Race

Date

Team Rating

Paige Gilchrist

Mikayla Malaspina

Miranda Myers

Kylie Goo

Pipi Eitel

Emily Roughan

Emma Keenan

Delaney Rasmussen

Jenna McCaffrey

Jessa Hanson

Louisville Classic (Gold)

09/30

551

19:37

19:50

20:14

20:32

20:46

21:16

21:12

21:22

21:57

Pre-Nationals (Black)

10/14

21:17

21:26

Pre-Nationals (Red)

10/14

579

19:53

19:41

20:38

20:18

20:43

21:02

21:25

Big Sky Championship

10/28

705

19:50

20:13

20:25

21:34

20:56

20:50

21:14

21:31

Mountain Region Championships

11/10

699

19:41

19:57

20:26

21:19

21:51

21:10

21:03

NCAA Tournament Simulation

Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.

Team Results

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Ave Score

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

NCAA Championship

28.3%

25.3

599

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.7

1.2

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.0

3.7

2.6

3.5

2.6

2.1

Region Championship

100%

7.1

213

0.6

3.1

8.3

18.2

33.0

22.3

10.6

3.2

0.7

0.2

0.1

0.1

Individual Results

NCAA Championship

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Paige Gilchrist

80.7%

69.9

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.6

Mikayla Malaspina

62.6%

87.5

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

Miranda Myers

28.5%

177.2

Kylie Goo

28.3%

206.5

Pipi Eitel

28.3%

221.3

Emily Roughan

28.3%

230.4

Emma Keenan

28.3%

239.6

Regional

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Paige Gilchrist

14.8

0.3

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.9

3.2

3.2

4.7

5.4

5.4

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

5.5

5.7

5.3

5.2

4.2

3.5

3.3

2.9

2.5

1.5

Mikayla Malaspina

19.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

1.0

1.2

1.8

3.6

2.7

4.0

3.8

4.1

5.1

5.3

5.1

6.1

5.3

4.7

5.0

5.3

4.0

4.1

3.9

Miranda Myers

45.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.9

0.6

1.3

Kylie Goo

60.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Pipi Eitel

72.2

Emily Roughan

80.4

Emma Keenan

91.3

NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total

Region Finish

Chance of Finishing

Chance of Advancing

Auto

At Large Selection

No Adv

Auto

At Large

Region Finish

1

2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1

1

2

2

3

0.6%

100.0%

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.6

3

4

3.1%

91.8%

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.3

2.8

4

5

8.3%

84.8%

0.1

0.2

0.7

0.7

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.3

7.0

5

6

18.2%

60.3%

0.1

0.4

1.0

1.7

1.8

2.3

2.4

1.5

7.2

11.0

6

7

33.0%

18.2%

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.7

1.5

3.5

27.0

6.0

7

8

22.3%

4.3%

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.7

21.3

1.0

8

9

10.6%

10.6

9

10

3.2%

3.2

10

11

0.7%

0.7

11

12

0.2%

0.2

12

13

0.1%

0.1

13

14

14

15

0.1%

0.1

15

16

16

17

17

18

18

19

19

20

20

Total

100%

28.3%

0.1

0.4

0.6

1.5

2.3

3.5

3.2

4.6

5.7

6.8

71.7

0.0

28.3

Points

At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.