24 January 2013 6:51 PM

Cameron's EU hokey-cokey pig-in-a-pokey

As I wrote here
just over a week ago, the great question about David Cameron’s EU referendum promise
was always going to be what he would do if he failed to achieve what he set out
to achieve.

He has said he will try to secure from the EU meaningful
concessions amounting to ‘a new settlement’. This would enable him to present the
EU to the British people as a reformed body which now met their objections, and
to which he would therefore recommend they vote to stay in.

But what if he failed to secure that ‘new settlement’? For
weeks he has dodged that question.

Yesterday, in his seminal, epoch-making, earth-moving speech
that has redefined British politics in the most significant way for 40 years
(or so the media, aided by incandescent Europhiles, have been shouting all day)
he dodged it yet again. He simply refused to answer.

From which we are entitled to conclude that, since he
has said most emphatically that he wants the UK to stay in the EU, he will not
campaign for a ‘no’ vote even if he fails to secure those concessions and that ‘new
settlement’.

From which it follows that he will in fact campaign for
a ‘yes’ vote, even if he has failed to secure those concessions and ‘new
settlement’.

From which it follows that he doesn’t actually attach
much significance at all to those concessions and that ‘new settlement’ which
he has so loudly trumpeted as so crucial.

From which it follows that, despite his emphatic
acknowledgement yesterday of the concerns of the British people about EU
membership, he either doesn’t understand what they really are or else holds them
in total contempt.

In a nutshell, the British are concerned about the progressive
loss of their powers of self-government. They want an economic trading
agreement with the countries of Europe. That’s it.

They don’t want the EU to decide on foreign or defence
policy, immigration, justice, agriculture, fisheries policy or the economy.
They believe that by progressively controlling all those things and more, the
EU poses a direct threat to democracy and their ability to govern themselves
through their own sovereign Parliament, and that it therefore constitutes a
form of tyranny.

In his speech the PM acknowledged in general those concerns.
But to say that he intends to return to the British people those lost powers of
self-government is to promise the impossible.

Whatever changes to the EU are made to cope with the Euro
crisis and other problems, these will undoubtedly amount to more power
for Brussels, not less. For the substitution of national sovereignty by EU
control is absolutely fundamental to the whole EU undertaking.

Cameron cannot undo that; nor can he opt the UK out of it.
Does anyone imagine that the UK will be granted exemption from the edicts of
the European Court of Justice, for example? Or that it will be allowed to pull
up the drawbridge against the unfettered flow of peoples within the EU, aka
mass immigration? Or secure change in, or an opt-out from, any of the myriad
treaty obligations that rest on that fundamental transfer of power from member
states to the EU and that the UK itself has signed?

The idea is simply absurd, as EU politicians and officials yesterday queued up to say with warnings that there can be no ‘cherry-picking’
or ‘à la carte’ and that this would open up a ‘Pandora’s box’ (ie other member
states will want the same thing, and then the entire EU enterprise
disintegrates.) And who can blame them? Either you accept the rules of the club
you are in - or, if those rules are fundamental to that club and thus
unchangeable, you have to leave it.

Today, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel was said to
have come to Cameron’s aid by promising to look favourably on the shopping list
of reforms he will propose after the next UK general election in 2015. Yet
in Berlin this week, she and the French President promised to deliver joint
proposals for more economic co-operation in the Eurozone by May. In other words,
the EU will probably stuff Cameron just on his timetable alone.

And just look at the goals he set out today. More
competitiveness. Less bureaucracy. More flexibility. Powers flowing back to
member states. A bigger role for national parliaments. Different boundaries for
the single market and the single currency to produce ‘fairness’.

And motherhood and apple pie.

In other words sheer waffle. All totally unspecific and
thus meaningless. Just how much progress on any of these goals does Cameron
consider would amount to this mythical ‘new settlement’? Presumably just as
much progress as he thinks will allow him to pull the wool over the eyes of the
British people.

Today he dodged the question of whether he would
campaign for a ‘no’ vote if a ‘new settlement’ wasn’t reached. But surely here’s
the real kicker. Cameron said:

‘And when we have
negotiated that new settlement, we will give the British people a referendum with
a very simple in or out choice. To stay in the EU on these new terms; or come
out altogether’ (my emphasis).

As I read it, this allows him to say that if he hasn’t
managed to secure the ‘new settlement’, the very basis on which he was calling
the referendum will have been vitiated and so he will not be calling it after
all. So much for that ‘definite’ in/out pledge.

What’s more, all of this is another five years down the
line -- and anything can happen before then. Meanwhile he has stuffed the Labour
party, whose leader Ed Miliband yesterday fell neatly into the trap by ruling out
giving the people a referendum voice on the EU at all. And he has neutralised
his troublesome Eurosceptic MPs, who are now swooning in ecstasy at the ‘definite’
in/out pledge. In other words, this all looks like no more or less than a tactical
manoeuvre to get himself out of political trouble.

But what they have all failed to realise, all these
idiotic Tory MPs and journalist sheep who are already assuming the Tories have
won the 2015 election, is that when Cameron says he believes something ‘with
courage and conviction’ the British public start counting their spoons. He can promise
this referendum until he is blue in the face – the public just doesn’t believe him.
He broke what appeared to be an EU manifesto pledge once before; and they see
no reason to assume he will not do it again.

And if you read the actual words he has spoken, you can
see that yesterday once again he left himself plenty of wriggle room.

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Thank you Melaine for putting in to words what my gut instinct always told me about Cameron.. I can't make my mind up as to put him in the clueless-useless or spineless bracket so I think i'll go for all 3.

In suspect we will get a number of responses from Cameron eg, our re-negotiation is better than we could have hoped for and paves the way for a new relationship, a new dialogue. a new begining with Europe.It matters not that any such re-negotiation was in fact merely cosmetic.Words,just words. We have all seen what Camerons commitments are worth - absolutely nothing. His speech is just posturing - jam tomorrow, but tomorrow will never come!

Sadly I agree with you. I fear that it is just a cynical ploy to give him a better chance of being re-elected and to spike the guns of UKIP. I cannot see Brussels and the rest of the EU agreeing to any significant renegotiation since this would open the door to other countries and effectively kill off or damage their federal project. This would leave Cameron having to call a referendum unless he can wriggle out of it. I only hope that the genie has been let out of the bottle. It is vital to vote UKIP at the forthcoming european elections to send a very clear message to the loonies and fruitcakes who make up the europhiliac wing if the conservative party.

We cannot judge how successful is David's negotiation unless we know what he is trying to achieve. Be nice if he would share with us his shopping list. Will he for example undo the Common Fisheries Policy? or Demand or stop the free movement of people across the EU? or What? Please tell us David so that we can see how successful you are.

You are one of the most sensible journalists Melanie and I thank you for that. You have a huge readership and are able to get the message out, along with Mr. Hitchens in Mail papers, that Cameron is a big con. What he said was meaningless as he is very pro-EU and really has no intention of leaving. I urge the likes of you and Hitchens, along with other good, truthful journalists like Christopher Booker and James Dellingpole who can see right through Cameron and his lies. To me, this latest con is up there with his "cast iron guarantee". It seems that most of your journalist colleagues have fallen for this conman. Will you do a piece on Article 50 and explaining that this is the best way for withdrawal from the EU?

By far the most realistic analysis I have seen on this subject so far. It's comforting to know that someone in the mainstream media is speaking for a large proportion of the British public, as opposed to writing a piece that is politically and socially convenient to their respective editors.

Congratulations on your article, Melanie - it is EXACTLY spot on.
Are you not running an employment risk by writing this article in wording which is in opposition (certainly in the Daily Mail) to the many grovellers who have vomited North Korean style praise for the 'kings' new wardrobe?

Your emphasised section is a crucial observation. Cameron's exercise has been one of self interests (big EU job in the pipeline?), and pure political manoeuvring. More proof of him being an empty vessel, totally untrustworthy, totally unbelievable.

Four + years needed? !!!!! Speed of action was quickly found to implement the PR referendum, to organise and hold the pointless PCC fiasco and to rush through the gay marriage 'thing'!

There is only one solution to save the history, independence and sovereignty of this island and that is for every sensible voter in this country to join, support and vote for UKIP at every possible opportunity. They should all remain firm and resolute against the massive 'tsunami' of pro-EU propoganda which has already left its epicentre and is on its way.

Although I am looking at it from a different political perspective I do agree completely with your analysis of David Cameron's position and particularly the observation that he has left himself the option of saying in five years' time that the negotiations have failed to take us to a position where the preconditions for holding a referendum have been met. I think his personal view is that leaving the EU in any circumstances would be a disaster. Now at this stage you and I part company because I agree with him about that. But politically he cannot afford to be open and honest about it because the press continues to cover the EU in such a slanted and toxic way. If there was a referendum today I daresay the UK would vote to leave because of the constant anti-EU hysteria in the right wing tabloids, whose job it is to persuade turkeys to vote for Christmas. More flexibility and competitiveness sounds great doesn't it, but if asked "do you think you should be forced to work longer hours for less pay and have no holidays, working in dangerous conditions, so that your employer can undercut Chinese competitors?" how many people would vote "Yes please"? Flexibility and competitiveness are euphemisms for a race to the bottom and a return to Victorian levels of deprivation for the majority of people. For most of us, the EU offers us hard-wired protection against the ultra-Thatcherite deregulators who cannot wait to take an axe to anything that makes life tolerable for ordinary people.

"As I read it, this allows him to say that if he hasn’t managed to secure the ‘new settlement’, the very basis on which he was calling the referendum will have been vitiated and so he will not be calling it after all. So much for that ‘definite’ in/out pledge"

That one nearly had my coffee cup through the TV screen, Melanie, nice to learn that I was not alone! So why can we spot it and that all those so called conservatives praising the speech almost as news as the second coming, cant? And why is there so much criticism from unpopular figures such as Mandelson and certain foreign leaders for this deviously clouded pro Euro speech, if not to give it credence in the minds of the electorate that they so despise ! We now have a 5 year Euro stitch up in prospect, not so blatant perhaps as the multi referenda experienced by the Danes and Irish but just as likely to defy the will of the people! And THIS once Tory newspaper is predictably a leader of the gadarene rush to praise the speech rather than bury it as it should be!

If you can see this Melanie, as do large swathes of the Electorate, why then are many National newspapers waxing lyrical about the speech. CS Lewis would have been proud of Cameron with his 'Jam yesterday, Jam tomorrow but never Jam today' promises. The man is showing his only true talent and that is PR. It is all 'smoke and mirrors'.

If the Conservative Eurosceptics are convinced by his utterings, then they do not deserve to be MPs and I truly hope that Nigel Farage will show them the error of their ways in 2015.

I'm glad you've written this article because I completely agree with you. I see nothing in his speech that will help us quickly. You say the people don't want the E.U to decide on foreign or defence policy, immigration, justice, fisheries policy, or the economy. They believe that by progressively controlling all these things and more, the E.U poses a direct threat to democracy and their ability to govern themselves through their own Sovereign parliament, and that it therefore constitutes a form of tyranny. For those of us who have seen the mess since the first referendum, another 5 years is taking the mickey. He probably won't be in power and it will all be meaningless. After the initial hoopla, people will wake up and realise we will still be in the same boat and nothing has changed. We've seen our fishing industry decimated. Ridiculous rules on bent bananas and interference on our justice system. We can't deport foreign prisoners or terror suspects and had no say in the massive influx of immigration. Having been a policeman's wife for many years I know the lax way illegals were dealt with too, by immigration officials and now we don't know how many undesirables we have. I'm not against immigration but those that came over when I was younger had to integrate and speak English because they were in small numbers. There wasn't this pressure on housing, jobs, health, education etc. now there are so many they don't have to bother and get houses and benefits to boot as well. None of this was addressed in his speech, and we will now have an influx of poorer migrants and there is no will to stop it. I dread to think of the crime that this will bring. Apart from U.K.I.P. No one is addressing this.

His speech also begs the question of, precisely who is he going to negotiate with. As I understand it he will need the agreement of all the other 26 member states to each change that he wants. He might as well try to push water uphill & he knows it, thus the whole thing is yet another shameful confidence trick

A very good article.
Cameron may have stilled the eurosceptic voices for now with his snake oil salesman's patter, but he should remember the comment by his great hero Macmillan:
"Events Dear Boy, Events."

Mr Cameron has already shown that his main concern is to keep the keys to number 10. This was the reason for the coalition, he had not quite got the majority and could see the keys falling from his grasp, rather than force another election which might lose everything he turned to Cleggy for help and Cleggy extracted his price. I cannot believe that a promise means anything to this man. To get a referendum we must support him in 2015 and the rest is as Melanie has stated above.

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