Social Navigation

The Value of Low-Probability Upside and Other Bullets

The movie The Wife and I saw yesterday on our morning date was ‘Gone Girl,’ which was excellent. It was both an interesting story and very well crafted as a film. Thematically, it felt like the message about marriage, in general, was pretty damn dark, though. If you see it with your spouse, you’ll leave either feeling great about your partnership, or wondering whether you shouldn’t have just upped the other’s life insurance policy. Separately: that could have made for a hell of a great TV show. Three seasons, about eight episodes apiece – and if you’ve seen in, you know exactly which story segments each season would follow. Would have worked very well, and could have plumbed a bit more of the characters.

That all said, it was the first movie I’ve seen in the theater in about a year, and it was just great. Highly recommended.

The Royals are in the World Series this year, which serves as something of a comeuppance for folks who ripped them for the Wil Myers/Jake Odorizzi/James Shields/Wade Davis trade, and ripped them for doing very little this offseason, and ripped them for not selling off at the deadline this year. I fall very much into the first two groups, and, for that, I have to do a little reflection on whether I was wrong, or whether it was a fluke. Dave Cameron helps me out, because he has a long write-up on this very issue. This is a must read if you’ve got a chance today.

A really interesting and provocative angle that Cameron takes: maybe we’re underestimating the value of low-probability upside (in this instance, a deep playoff run by a fairly mediocre team), and focusing too much on the probabilities. That is to say, even is something is very unlikely (the Royals making and going deep in the playoffs after acquiring Shields), that always has to be stacked against the gravity of the upside (making a deep run in the playoffs is HUGELY valuable to the Royals).

One overarching point to take from the Royals is that no-seriously-every-season-is-sacred. We offer it sometimes in a glib way, talking about the Cubs’ 2012/13/14 seasons, but it’s also true. For a rebuilding club, there’s a balance to strike, if you can: don’t wreck the future to go all out in an individual season while you’re rebuilding, but also set yourself up with a roster that has a chance of surprising early, and then you can go from there. I think the Cubs did a great job of walking that line in 2013 and 2014, but not so much in 2012. They were trying to turn over that roster quickly, though, so I can cut them a break for 2012. As an object lesson for the Cubs looking backwards, then, I don’t see much here. I think they did it the best way possible these past three years. But as we head into 2015, the lesson is: don’t rule yourself out too early. Is there a team in baseball that would stand to benefit more from a deep postseason run than the Cubs?

The Mesa Solar Sox won again yesterday, bringing them to within a game of .500. The game was light on Cubs prospect action, with Dan Vogelbach walking once in four plate appearances (no strikeouts, though), and Jacob Hannemann going 0-4 with 2 Ks. Gerardo Concepcion pitched a scoreless inning with 1 BB.

At a Chicago sports owner panel this week, Tom Ricketts said that his family wouldn’t sell the Cubs for $3 billion (per David Haugh). That’s nearly four times what they paid for the team in 2009, so I’d say they’re fairly committed to this thing (which, indeed, Ricketts did say – and has always said – this was a long, long-term family thing).

Andrew Friedman is reportedly considering former Padres and Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes as his GM in Los Angeles. Byrnes has a bad rep with some folks, but there’s a reason he keeps getting these gigs. He’s obviously talented.

Disclaimer

In addition to news, Bleacher Nation publishes both rumor and opinion, as well as information reported by other sources. Information on Bleacher Nation may contain errors or inaccuracies, though we try to avoid them. Links to content and the quotation of material from other news sources are not the responsibility of Bleacher Nation. Photos used are the property of Bleacher Nation, are used under a license with Getty Images, are used with permission, are fair use, or are believed to be in the public domain. Legitimate requests to remove copyrighted photos not in the public domain will be honored promptly. Comments by third parties are neither sponsored or endorsed by Bleacher Nation.

Bleacher Nation Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Bleacher Nation is a private media site, and it is not affiliated in any way with Major League Baseball or the Chicago Cubs. Neither MLB nor the Chicago Cubs have endorsed, supported, directed, or participated in the creation of the content at this site, or in the creation of the site itself. It's just a media site that happens to cover MLB and the Chicago Cubs.

Bleacher Nation is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.