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Saturday, 14 March 2020

Should We Buy Stocks (STI) Now? Or Wait Another Few More Months? (Part 1)

Patience is Wisdom

Last year, a very good friend who is successful in career and family management (4 kids) told me that he just attended courses on stocks investments, and he is excited to put money into the market. Of course those so-called Guru teacher has strongly encourage their investment “now” and “not wait”. My friend asked for my advice. I explained that knowledge of financial management including investment or creating a portfolio is imperative in life. But perhaps it is not the right time to invest since the Market is really way too high. He accepted my advice. Just this week, we exchanged messages and he told me market is plunging like mad and of course I know he is glad. Patience is also wisdom. I told him perhaps it is a good time to invest now!

I was very active in stocks in 2013,14,15,16. And started blogging in 2014 and very active through to 2016. Since late 2015, I had been offloading stocks progressively, holding more cash and precious metals until now, believing the market is over-priced with impending crash that can potentially be worse than the GFC.

Bonds: 50% SSB, 50% corporate bond. Can be liquidated anytime with no losses.

Time to monitor closely on stocks, and always be prepared to deploy Warchest cautiously.

While fundamental analysis of a company is utmost importance, being at the right place at the right time can be of equal or more important. The former is technical knowledge. The latter is wisdom.

Technical knowledge is via hardwork and research. Wisdom is amassed through years of experiences, failures and exposure, not just in stock but also in life.

Déjà vu of 2016 Jan

Jan 2016 I wrote an article when STI drops below 2800 and what should we do. Refer here. The article is unquestionably very relevant now too. Below table depicts if you have 100K to invest, and how and when you can deploy the Warchest.

Conclusion

To conclude, it is definitely a better time to buy stocks now than last year. But perhaps not excessively, starting with a small percentage of cash.

This is because Market Crash usually takes several months to a year or so to bottom out.

E.g.

GFC : Peaked Oct 2007. Bottom Mar 2009. ~ 1.5 years

2015-2016 sell off : Peaked Apr 2015. Bottom Feb 2016 ~ 10 months.

In Part 2, I will go more in depth into simple charts analysis to come to a conclusion if we should immediately rushed to put all our cash into stocks now. And perhaps Part 3, stocks to put in watchlist.

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Disclaimer

This blog and its contents contain the opinions and views of me. It is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of any of the companies or investments herein discussed. If a reader requires expert financial advice, a competent professional should be consulted. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information contained herein the blog and its contents. Other than being the shareholders of some of the stocks discussed herein at the time of writing, I am not in any way related to the company mentioned within the blog. I specifically disclaim any responsibility for any liability, loss, or risk, professional or otherwise, which is incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use and application of any contents of this blog.