A Lesson From At&t: The Only Sure Thing Is Change

Things seldom work out exactly as planned. As Donna Blanton, a reporter for The Orlando Sentinel, wrote on May 15, 1980, ''It was a day for backslapping, sipping champagne and basking in glory.''

The occasion was the announcement that Western Electric would build a multimillion dollar manufacturing plant in southwest Orange County. There were many reasons for excitement. The plant would be completed in late 1982, initially creating 1,500 jobs and an annual payroll of $35 million to $40 million.

Well, here it is mid-1985, and things have changed. Work was halted on the $400 million plant in 1981 when the economy went into a tailspin. Western Electric emerged from the Ma Bell breakup as AT&T Technologies. The plan now is to have the semiconductor and microprocessor manufacturing plant up and running by December.

With luck, the huge plant will begin production with 1,200 workers and eventually will expand its work force to 1,500 as anticipated.

The AT&T Technologies story is a perfect example of what is happening in industry worldwide today. Planning, no matter how well done, can go

awry. Ideas that seem good today can become obsolete tomorrow.

Central Florida has been either victimized or spared -- depending on your point of view -- by the arrival of Future Shock. In recent years, Central Florida has been dubbed the state's ''Golden Girdle'' because of the growth in high-technology business, and Florida has ranked high among the states considered most often by manufacturers seeking to relocate. Well, where are they?

Although the AT&T Technologies factory is about three years late, it was a good catch. But we aren't exactly being flooded with manufacturers bringing new jobs into a services-oriented area.

There are those that got away. In March 1980, there was another occasion for backslapping. Burroughs Corp. acquired 128 acres in west Orange County for a planned electronics plant that would employ 500 people.

It didn't happen. Earlier this year, Burroughs ditched the plan and announced that it would sell the land.

Then there was Lockheed Corp. in 1983. Although Gov. Bob Graham said Lockheed would open a plant in Orlando, it didn't happen. Lt. Gov. Wayne Mixson's follow-up announcement -- that the governor's comments were ''premature'' -- certainly proved to be true. Time has shown that the comments were at least two years premature.

While the back-to-back announcements by AT&T and Burroughs made a pretty good argument in 1980 for Central Florida's bright future as an electronics hub, it hasn't happened yet.

And there are clouds on the horizon for the electronics industry.

Japan is accused of ''dumping'' computer chips in the U.S. market at less than fair prices. Burroughs products that might have carried a made-in-Orlando label will be made in Scotland -- where labor is cheaper.

I remember attending that AT&T gala in 1980. At one point, I asked a ranking AT&T executive what would happen if the demand for semiconductors and microprocessors didn't materialize as expected, or if the Japanese beat us to the punch.

Giving me one of those fisheye looks that executives reserve for totally uninformed reporters, the executive said, ''Supplies are woefully inadequate.'' The opportunity for production, he said, ''is more than we can imagine.''

Believe it or not, he was right -- in 1980. But times change, lead times grow shorter and shorter, planning becomes more and more difficult.

Despite Central Florida's attractiveness as a manufacturing site, the experiences of recent years point to one thing: Don't make book on it until it happens.

Some futurists say that, of all technology that will be in use in the year 2000, 90 percent has not even been developed yet.