The Mattison Estate’s planned redevelopment of The Villa will be a boon tax-wise for Upper Dublin Township and the school district, according to a fiscal assessment presented by Jim Hartling of Urban Partners at the March 18 Upper Dublin Planning Commission meeting.

The fiscal impact of the proposed 378 housing units on the 45-acre property at Bethlehem Pike and Lindenwold Terrace, formerly known as St. Mary’s Villa, would be an estimated net annual tax gain of $115,600 to $133,100 to the township and $1,827,700 to $2,065,200 to the school district, according to the report on the township’s website at www.upperdublin.net/inc/documents/30/StMarysVillaFiscalImpact2013.pdf.

The current use, a nonprofit home for abused and neglected youths who receive residential care and education, results in a net loss to the township of $81,500 and $320,800 to the school district, the report says.

By adding the estimated increased revenue to the current loss, the redevelopment would be a net fiscal gain for the township of $197,100 to $214,600, and $1,827,700 to $2,065,200 for the school district, according to the report.

The development would also include a 250-unit senior independent living facility aimed at residents age 75 and up.

The 128 for-sale units would be occupied by an estimated 262 persons for a total of 587 living at The Mattison Estate. Of that number, the report estimates there would be 48 school-age children with 39 expected to attend Upper Dublin public schools.

Residents who spoke at the meeting, however, questioned some of the assumptions on which the numbers were based, particularly the number of school-age children.

Loch Alsh Avenue resident Tanya Semen asked why the numbers were not based on the 48 extra children estimated.

Hartling said 82 percent of the 5- to 17-year-old children living in the township attend the public schools, the rest attend non-public schools.

Semen responded that all four homes sold on her street in the past two years were purchased by families with children who are all planning to go to the public schools.

Likewise, March Meketon, of Villa Drive, who noted he was a statistician, said apartments, condos and townhomes usually have a higher turnover rate, so that the estimated 39 additional students might be low. The number on which the estimate is based “might not take into account the mix of townhomes and condos,” he said.

Highland Avenue resident Donna Murphy suggested more current numbers would soon be available as the school board is looking at possibly restructuring the elementary and middle schools and “recently reached out to Montgomery County for a population study.”

Lindenwold Terrace resident Scott Rothman, noting he did not speak at the meeting due to the limited time allotted for public comment, questioned the estimate of new students as well as the additional tax revenue from the development in an email.

The price points provided in December by the developer in meetings with residents were lower, with twins valued at $650,000 and townhomes at $450,000 to $500,000.

“The inflated numbers used in the Urban Partners’ study distort the revenue projections” for township and school taxes as well as transfer taxes, he wrote.

“No one is buying townhomes in Upper Dublin for anywhere close to $600k,” he wrote, adding he also is “not aware of any single-family, three-bedroom homes selling for anywhere close to $700k.”

The prices appear to be too high, particularly when buyers would also have to pay “hefty association fees and high property taxes.”

Rothman termed the methodology used to predict the number of school-age children as “flawed and misleading,” in that it “fails to take into account the ratio of bedrooms to children for new purchasers of homes” in Upper Dublin. Several Realtors he spoke with all said “every one of their clients [looking in Upper Dublin] is a family or couple getting ready to have kids,” he said.

If one assumed two children per home for the 88 homes, excluding the condos and apartments, that would be 176 children, he wrote. By subtracting the 18 percent who do not attend public schools, the 144 additional children would cost the school district about $2.5 million, based on the current annual per-student cost of $16,962, he said.

That number, he concluded, is “roughly the same with the projected revenues … in the assessment, which are inflated to begin with.”