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It seems so logical to warn people with minor ailments to stay away from the ER when it’s overrun by patients.

That warning was made last month by London Health Sciences Centre, as officials tried to manage the peak of flu season while patients on gurneys waited for a room in hospitals already at 105% capacity.

People who weren’t seriously ill or injured were encouraged to instead go to a family doctor, clinic or the city’s urgent care centre.

It was the fourth time the hospital made such a warning in the past seven years.

But whether that’s the right call, that’s a point that’s been called into question by experts who say that a warning, however well intended, may drive away someone who really needs emergency care.

“You can’t be sure people who need emergency care won’t stay away,” said Dr. Michael Schull, president of the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, which independently analyses Ontario health care.

A similar concern was raised by Dr. Samir Sinha, chosen two years ago by Ontario Health Minister Deb Matthews to lead its seniors strategy.

People who think they’re in medical duress may not be able to make a good judgment about whether they need emergency care, he said.

“The people who chose to avoid coming sometimes tend to be the people who need it most,” Sinha told The Free Press Friday.

Whether that concern showed itself in London is hard to say.

After the announcement Jan. 10, there was a bump in people going to the city’s urgent care centre who then had to be taken to an ER, but no easy way of knowing they’d avoided the ER because of the warning.

London hospitals didn’t make the decision lightly, said Dr. Gary Joubert, who oversees emergency medicine in the city. He deliberated for hours with others, including senior hospital leadership, before issuing the warning.

While there may be a risk in warning people of the waits in the ER, there’s also risk in doing nothing and having waits get even longer, he said.

“Life is a business of balancing risks,” Joubert said.

Some people come to the ER not because they face an emergency, but because they know the can get 24-7 access to a doctor and tests, he said.

That sort of balancing doesn’t appear to be happening at smaller, regional hospitals around London, places Joubert says generally don’t face the capacity pressures of an urban, teaching hospital.

Bluewater Health in Sarnia says it doesn’t issue ER warnings. The president of Woodstock Hospital, Natasa Veljovic, can’t recall making such an announcement in the past three or four years.

“Emergency departments at both University and Victoria Hospitals are experiencing high levels of patient activity . . . During a situation like this, it is our priority to see the most critically ill and injured in a timely manner. We ask you not to come to the emergency department unless it is a serious illness or an emergency.”