Only a bunch of convicts having been beaten 3-0 and gone 9 tests without a win and won just 1 in 11 against England could go into the home series saying they will win. England will win in Australia again this winter as they are a better side which they have shown this summer. 3-0 doesn't lie girls.

Coming off of the first real competition of the tournament New Zealand were soundly beaten by Australia and Sri Lanka. While topping South Africa nicely. Should be coming into this game in reasonably good touch.

Strengths

Bond: One of the finest pace bowlers in this tournament. So far in this world cup he has went for nothing and taken valuable wickets.

Vettori: Probably the most experienced cricketer in the world for his age. If New Zealanders other bowlers have bowled well it gives him lease to go for wickets which he does quite well. If not he bowls very tightly.

Fleming: A highly rated international captain, he has also been on good form in this world cup.

Styris: New Zealands best batsmen in this tournament and one of their top middle over bowlers. A great all rounder.

Weakness's

Franklin: While a handy batsmen and capable bowler, is rather inconsistent with the ball. But a player that we do need to play, while not reliable he can be a match winner. 30% of the time.

The other NZ seam option: Mason Gillespie and the now gone Tuffey have all been rather bad with the ball in this tournament and at this late stage of the tournament Martin is a very dangerous gamble to play.

Top order collapse: With Vincents injury and Fulton taking up his mantle some of New Zealands new found spark at the top of the order has been lost. Also against a team like Sri Lanka this kind of collapse can spell disaster to setting a decent score.

What to Watch

The first ten overs. Whether batting or bowling this can be where New Zealand wins or loses a game.

Jeetan Patel, a player who has proven his worth throughout this world cup and will hopefuly get his reward by playing in this game. A great prospect for the future and a very clever young spin bowler. Was able to pull Hayden and Ponting back while they were going at full force. Definitely an impressive feat.

Ross Taylor, will he get that big score that he has shown he is very capable of doing? And if he does, will he cramp up again?

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka, maybe Australias biggest threat in this world cup with one of the most fearsome bowling line ups out there. This side has come leaps and bounds in all departments, a sub-continent team that can field? Ye gads!

Strengths

Jayasuriya: Not much needs to be said about this player. If he fires, its an inferno.

Vaas: This man has a great record against Fleming, will he be able to stifle the kiwi captain once more?

Malinga: One of the best strike bowlers in the world, a man who always looks like taking a wicket. His yorkers are precise and his speed is impressive. A player that can set any teams stumps flying.

Murali: The greatest spinner in the world, a destroyer of teams and a man the Black Caps will definitely not be happy bowling at them.

Weakness's

Tharanga: He hasn't had the best world cup and will definitely be looking to improve. With an average of just 24 he may be exposed by the New Zealanders early on.

Maharoof/Fernando: Sri Lankas other faster bowling options have been exploited in the past against good teams, New Zealand will definitely be looking to go after them. (If they're playing that is.)

Depth of batting: While not the worst out there, New Zealanders batting depth is one that allows them to chase down massive scores with no huge fear of losing wickets as long as they play at a good pace. While New Zealands batting goes down to 9 with confident batsman. Sri Lankas depending on the chosen squad usually falls a couple batsman short of that, and if chasing a large total this will put more pressure on the top order to suceed.

What to Watch

Sangakarra: How confident is this man behind the stumps? He seems like he could catch anything back there, he has taken 15 victims in this World cup with 4 stumpings.

The middle overs: While New Zealand have dominated in the middle overs thus far in the world cup, with a team of handy spinners and the great Murali, Sri Lanka definitely make the kiwi's work hard for their runs.

My Prediction

NZ bat first

Sri Lanka victory 70%

SRL bat first

NZ victory 60%

An even looking match, and with a pitch that isn't turning as much I think New Zealand would be confident in chasing anything SRL post up. But if NZ are to bat first, nerves of facing such a fierce attack while trying to post a good score will tip the balance to SRL.

Ross Taylor bats at first drop for Central Districts while Matthew Sinclair usually occupies the #4 spot. I would far rather have Craig McMillan in the Black Caps side than Hamish Marshall, he has more strings to his bow, his bowling could come in very handy, especially if one of the frontliners is getting tonked. I know that McMillan hasn't been in the best of form, but he is a far more likely candidate to win us the semifinal or final than Hamish Marshall is.

My apologies, Sinclair bats at #3 ahead of Taylor only in FC matches. If Taylor were a world class #3 as many claim then he would not be batting behind Sinclair in any form of the game. The fact is that taylor is unreliable: he's either off or on, and he's been more off than on recently. The problem is that the next match is a semi-final, and NZ won't get another chance if they lose. It reminds me of NZ playing the unpredictable Carlos Spencer in the last rugby world cup. Unfortunately he played crap in the semi-final.

However, Taylor has enough talent to be in the team ahead of Marshall; McMillan does not. I just think NZ needs someone that is more stable if they lose an early wicket, and Marshall is the best option while Fulton is opening.

Keeping McMillan in for his bowling when NZ already will be playing 6 bowlers is ridiculous. Aren't Styris and Oram meant to share 10 to 14 overs? Why play another part-time bowler who's batting is generally rubbish. Such a selection policy says to the bowlers, "We'll try you and if you bowl crap then somebody else will cover for you", which is a terrible idea, and weakens the batting. If a player is selected for his bowling then he should be expected to bowl his complement.

McMillan can bowl a bit but Marshall is a good fielder.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bracewell didn't make such changes though: he's never had the balls before.

McMillan is a clear match winner as he proved in the Chappell-Hadlee series and here are Marshall's past 10 scores:

16, 50*, 15, 0, 3, 4, 29, 17, 5, 4

and McMillan's:

1, 38*, 1, 22, 33*, 10, 71, 27, 117, 52

Says it all.

Also, you obviously haven't noticed but Hamish Marshall has been fielding the full 50 overs in the past few games. We've been subbing off bowlers in blocks to keep them fresh, and to use Marshall's fielding skills.