January
9, 2003 — The climate phenomenon El
Niño has reached its “mature stage” and will linger
through the end of spring, according to forecasters at the NOAA
National Weather Service. The NOAA
Climate Prediction Center, which issued the latest El Niño
outlook today, reported that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial
Pacific Ocean remained greater than 1 degree C (2 degrees F) above average
in December. Temperatures below the surface were above normal in the eastern
Pacific, while cold subsurface temperatures were recorded in the western
equatorial Pacific. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view
of El Niño taken Jan. 6, 2003. The warm sea surface temperatures
in the eastern Pacific Ocean are represented in red. Please credit “NOAA.”)

“These
sea surface temperatures indicate the mature phase of El Niño is
in place,” said Jim Laver, director of the CPC. El Niño occurs
when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain above
average for more than several months. This usually triggers atmospheric
and weather changes around the globe.

Prediction
Through March
Forecasters expect El Niño to continue to bring: drier-than-average
conditions around the Ohio Valley states and northern Rockies; wetter-than-average
conditions along much of the southern tier of the nation and, warmer-than-average
temperatures across the northern tier states, southern and southeastern
Alaska. (Click NOAA image for larger view of Climate Prediction
Center 2003 seasonal outlook for January-March. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

“Typically,
El Niño impacts on the U.S. are strongest during the winter and
early spring due to changes in the jet stream, and the pattern of storm
activity,” said the CPC’s Vernon Kousky, NOAA’s lead
El Niño forecaster. He added this El Niño will continue
to remain weaker than the strong 1997-98 version.

El
Niño’s Benefits
In recent weeks, El Niño has contributed much-needed precipitation
to many parched areas of the country. For example, fall and winter storms
along the Gulf and East Coasts have nearly ended the drought from Texas
to Georgia, and along the entire East Coast.

The precipitation
has many wells and reservoirs in the East at near normal levels, with
some even above-normal.

Drought
Conditions Hang On
In interior sections of the Southeast, some wells and reservoirs still
remain below normal. In California, rain and snow have been plentiful.
While the snow pack has increased to above-normal levels, drought conditions
remain throughout sections of the interior West and Great Plains.

Drought has
continued with little improvement in most of Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada,
Arizona and New Mexico. Colorado has experienced early-season snows, but
much more is needed for significant drought relief, Laver said.

Also, below-normal
rain and snow for the past few months has not brought drought relief for
North and South Dakota and Nebraska, and there has been little relief
for drought-weary sections of Missouri and Kansas. Drought conditions
extend from Michigan into southern Iowa, and could expand both northward
and southward in coming months.

The Climate
Prediction Center is one of the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction, which is part of the NOAA National
Weather Service. The Climate Prediction Center predicts and monitors El
Niño and also produces the nation’s official long-range outlooks
and medium-range weather forecasts.

NOAA
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and
marine resources. NOAA is part of the Department
of Commerce.