Brian Chan is a Southern California transplant and life-long Clippers fan living in the Bay Area. The things keeping him content are his camera, the game of basketball and the beauty of Chris Kaman. Today, he digs inside the data for ClipperBlog to establish a benchmark for the 2010-11 season. It’s a tall task because the Clippers have overhauled their roster from a season ago. With all those moving parts to account for, here are Chan’s conclusions:

Clipper Win Projections Using WARP
With the start of the season upon us, there are many questions in the minds of Clippers fans. Will Blake Griffin live up to the hype? Will Eric Gordon develop into an elite 2-guard? Can the Clippers stay healthy? All of these questions boil down to one overarching question: how many games will the Clippers win this season?

There have been many projections for the NBA Season, most of which seem to paint a fairly grim picture for the Clippers. I thought I would try my hand at a simple projection that would give reasonable results and could show the drivers of a team’s wins or the lack thereof. For this projection, I used Kevin Pelton’s insightful Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) System, to try to see if a team’s cumulative WARP is representative of its eventual total wins.

WARP attempts to evaluate a player based on how many wins the player would produce on a team with four average players relative to the wins produced by a team consisting of four average players and one replacement level player, where replacement level is defined as the level of production of a readily available replacement (not starters). The WARP evaluation is based on various statistics that rate a player’s offensive and defensive production and efficiency, and it allows the rating of players on a per minute basis. The WARP Formula breaks down as:

There are many detailed formulas that go into WARP; however, by using WARP and Minute numbers from Basketball Prospectus, we can identify a “Win%”, which can in turn be used to recalculate WARP based on projected minutes in 2011.

Clippers 2010

Player

Adjusted WARP

Player

Adjusted WARP

Al Thornton

-0.6

Kareem Rush

-0.1

Baron Davis

8.2

Marcus Camby

8.8

Bobby Brown

-0.3

Mardy Collins

-1.2

Brian Skinner

-0.3

Rasual Butler

-3.5

Chris Kaman

2.6

Ricky Davis

-1.0

Craig Smith

2.5

Sebastian Telfair

-0.2

DeAndre Jordan

1.3

Steve Blake

-0.2

Drew Gooden

4.5

Steve Novak

-1.1

Eric Gordon

0.6

Travis Outlaw

0.0

JamesOn Curry

0.0

Cumulative

20.0

This win projection assumes that teams are about as good as the sum of their parts. After finding the 2010 WARP for each player who played on a team and adjusting for minutes for players who were moved mid-season, we have a roster broken down by WARP. By adding the WARP for the roster, you have a cumulative WARP that represents contributions by all players during the season. Comparing cumulative WARP to team wins produces interesting results:

Team

2010 Cumulative WARP

2010 Wins

Correl

Phoenix Suns

43.3

54

0.924232149

Utah Jazz

42.4

53

Denver Nuggets

40.6

53

Dallas Mavericks

39.2

55

Oklahoma City Thunder

38.9

50

LA Lakers

37.2

57

Portland Trail Blazers

36.2

50

San Antonio Spurs

36

50

Golden State Warriors

28.3

26

Memphis Grizzlies

27.5

40

New Orleans Hornets

24.4

37

Houston Rockets

23.8

42

LA Clippers

20

29

Sacramento Kings

20

25

Minnesota Timberwolves

8.9

15

As seen in the table, there is a strong correlation (0.92) between cumulative WARP and season wins. There are a few inconsistencies, such as the Lakers with a 37.2 WARP, but in general, the trend appears to be that a higher team cumulative WARP results in a higher number of team wins.

Applying a simple regression will allow us to approximately predict wins in the 2011 season based on projected 2011 WARP.

Y=1.20401975X+4.93893226

X-Variable

WARP

Y-Variable

Wins

Using the previous season’s WARP Win % and basic estimations of players’ minutes based on their spot on the depth chart, our projected 2011 WARP looks like the following:

Clippers 2010-2011 Roster

Player

2010 Win%

Projected Min

Projected WARP

Baron Davis

0.278

2364.6

7.687353049

Eric Gordon

0.135

2364.6

0.642815549

Randy Foye

0.131

1182.3

0.222882774

Rasual Butler

0.06

788.2

-1.01729065

Ryan Gomes

0.107

2364.6

-0.736534451

Craig Smith

0.219

1182.3

2.390432774

Brian Cook

-0.096

394.1

-1.789470325

Chris Kaman

0.17

2364.6

2.367003049

DeAndre Jordan

0.177

1182.3

1.355920274

Blake Griffin

—

2364.6

?

Al-Farouq Aminu

—

788.2

?

Eric Bledsoe

—

1182.3

?

Other

—

—

0

Cumulative

11.12311204

This method allows for simple projected WARP for players with historical figures; however, it doesn’t account for the rookies who will be seeing playing time. Instead of attempting to estimate their WARPs, one can look at the possible scenarios.

No.

Condition

Expected WARP

Expected Wins

1

Conservative

11.12311204

18.33137884

2

BG (8.8)

19.92311204

28.92675264

3

BG+ (12.7)

23.82311204

33.62242967

4

BG+ (12.7) EJ+ (6)

29.18029649

40.07258555

5

BG+ (12.7) EJ+ (6) Rookies+ (3)

32.18029649

43.6846448

Scenario 1: In this situation, there is no player progression and the rookies all play at a replacement player level. The expected WARP would be 11.12 and the expected win total becomes 18.33. This drop in wins reflects the loss of Marcus Camby, the Clipper with the highest WARP in 2010 despite not being on the team for the entire season.

Scenario 2: In Scenario 2, we assume Blake Griffin at least replaces Marcus Camby’s contributions and has a WARP of 8.8. This results in 28.93 expected wins.

Scenario 3: In Scenario 3, Blake Griffin plays as well as Camby did over the entire 2010 season and has a WARP of 12.7. This results in 33.62 expected wins.

Scenario 4: Blake Griffin plays as well as Marcus Camby and Eric Gordon increases his WARP to 6, which is about average for a good 2-guard. This results in 40.07 expected wins.

Scenario 5: Finally, on top of Scenario 4, the rest of the rookies play at a high level and produce a WARP of 3. This results in 43.68 expected wins.

There are many potential scenarios, but these were ones that seemed reasonable enough to ponder on.

Although this projection may not be bulletproof, it’s an interesting way to look at the season’s potential. This projection’s proximity to other projections is a good sign, and it allows us to see which positions the Clippers can improve at in terms of productivity and efficiency. The addition of Ryan Gomes presents an improvement at small forward, as he will cannibalize minutes from Rasual Butler, who had one of the worse WARPs (-3.5) in the Western Conference. Randy Foye provides improvement and stability at the backup guard positions in terms of WARP, and the great potential of the Clippers’ rookies will be fun to follow.

Ultimately, this and other statistical projections should not lessen your excitement for the season. There are factors, such as player development, change in style of play, and chemistry, that are too difficult to capture into a neat number. With the new additions to the roster and the coaching changes made, I know I, as a fan, can’t wait for tipoff.

Confusing. Just sim a season of NBA 2K11. Clippers ended up with 28 wins no bueno

griffin

Well thats becuz in 2K11 no clipper has a rating over 80 sucks doesnt it i dont think those stats are accurate from 2K11 its saying blake griffin isnt good and eric gordon doesnt have a 3pt shot so im surprised it got 28 wins at all more like no wins becuz of how they down graded the clippers so much

Clipped

Clippers will win more games than Miami Heat for sure.

Clippers should target 65 win season. But will end up winning 52 due injuries to Kaman, Griffin, Gordon and Baron.

If AMINU gets ready to fire up early, we can sustain our winning streak.

Again, Aminu and Bledsoe are the key to sustainability. Starting 5 needs to have consistant back-up production from the bench.

Don’t expect anything from DeAndre. He’s still a kid even if his MOMA tells him otherwise.

ClipShip

Haha.. Hilarious

http://www.firedunleavy.com FD

I still think 45 wins. Those stats don’t account for the Dunleavy factor.

RTT

I’ve always found that predicting wins and losses was the most difficult and possibly pointless part of the offseason.. You can predict how much a player’s stats will be or around the barn, if you will but there’s so much to account for in an actual win and an actual loss. Will we be the young team that has trouble closing out tight games or will we be the upstart, fast squad that might just blow other teams out of the building, none of us really know. Honestly, the preseason didn’t give us a clue either, in my personal opinion.

All I can predict is that we’ll be better this season, as long as injuries don’t mount up. If they do, any team can be turned into a horrible shell of itself.

Dump Davis

Any statistical scheme that rates Davis high. as this one does, obivously is a foolish, worthless scheme. It rates Davis as the best player on the team last year, by a long shot. How can anybody say that with a straight face? Simply pitifull.

Bongstradamus

Ill be happy with 33 wins. Thats still an improvement over last year, but its a little tempered by the reality of who we are.

I also think Blake will be a first year all-star. Probably RoY or Co-RoY with Wall.

griffin

Lol wall for roy hell no go take a look at walls highlights and than blakes highlights. Blake is going to be way better besides hes hungry to play ball hes gonna have an all star berth and next season a superstar berth. Blake isnt really a rookie anymore and im sure he will take home the roy and if he leads clippers to the playoffs he might take the mvp to lol

http://www.knuckleballsblog.com Knuckleballs Dan

This is really good analysis; I like that you allow for variation with respect to the big-time unknowns (the rookies and player progression). Did you get any help with this from a mathematician? Just asking because it seems very difficult. Either way, good work, Brian.

Bongstradamus

Hey guys, NBA League Pass is free till November 2nd as a preview!

I feel like a fat kid at a buffet!

Hiretarktheshark.com

Gomes is terrible

beard the curse

same old del Negro teams. no offense. just energy. beaten by a high school zone. fail. game over.

beard the curse

same old del Negro teams. no offense. just energy. beaten by a high school zone. fail. game over.

Hiretarktheshark.com

Just feeing kaman. Should go to the new stars – griffin and Gordon. Kaman is trash in crunchtime.

beard the curse

btw. this team is pretty bad. let’s just be hopeful Blake stays healthy so we can at least be entertained.

hangtheGM

DOES EVERYONE UNDERSTAND RYAN GOMES SUCKS NOW?????????

http://hitfix.com/awardscampaign jgroove

I’ve been saying it for quite awhile…this team is NOT deep…

Bongstradamus

Thoughts:

I am the illegitimate father of Blake Griffins lovechild. He fills me with a euphoria so powerful it would be banned in most countries and municipalities. Every offensive board and putback is an orgasm waiting to happen.

DJ – Fine work in limited minutes. Still rooting for you dude!

Kaman. 4-18. Excuse me for a second, I need to go recite some mantras and find some inner peace.

Is it wrong to cheer when Marcus Camby makes a good play? I really miss the guy.

Joeluis

I liked what i saw in DJ, EJ, and ofcourse Blake The Beast G-Force Griffin!
Butler was actually our 3pter today. ha!

A Cazzillion Offensive Rebounds! This sucked B@llz!!
I miss camby, Especially when Kaman doesnt show up!
This game was up for grabs. too bad.
I want to see this same matchup on January.
Go clips!
ps. Deandre was actually 100% from free throw at one point! lol.

SamMays

Who traded Camby for nothing? Was it Olshey or Dunleavy?

Joeluis

Dunleavy was coach/GM . We actually got some good players that we threw away. One of them was Steve Blake. The guy that was trusted by Kobe to shoot a 3pt winning shot for a Lakers W last night. OUCH!

http://hitfix.com/awardscampaign jgroove

Both. And yes, we’ve missed Camby since he got on the plane and left.

My prediction – 28-32 wins, especially after what we saw tonight. If Sterling or Olshey have any balls they will put up the money and make a trade that can help this team. Looking at the upcoming schedule I’ll be stunned if we win more than 8 games in Nov.

hangtheGM

sterling and olshey are the same person, tight asses that don’t know what it takes to win. I almost feel bad for blake playing with the likes of gomes, foye, and cook.

We Must take GS and SA to get a 2-4 season start.
All of em games will be fun to watch that for sure!
We’ll get there!, Dont worry guys!

Beard The Curse

Jesus Christ, another 0-6 start for us. GSW will run us out of the gym. Monta had 46 tonight against the Rockets.

Joeluis

I just saw the 46! O’ S!@@!#@#%T!!!

Ben S.

Its things that I saw today THAT I SEE EVERY YEAR
(teams NEVER missing against us -when they do we dont rebound- when they do miss we dont score)
(Chris Kaman has more than 1 boneheaded play did did you guys see the one where Blake got mad cause he made em pick up his 2nd foul?)

But the biggest dissapointment is that LIKE EVERY YEAR shots were just not falling…and LIKE EVERY YEAR we get close, or within a couple points but WE NEVER GET OVER THE HUMP its like the lead is some impossible feat…(and when we do teams dont miss and just get the lead back and then we dont make anything in the 4th and we choke)

so in the end…everything that happens every year happened today…and the same thing as every year….(minus the Godly Blake Griffin)
I dont understand why we cant just WIN? What is it?

griffin

We just fall apart in 4t* quaters always

griffin

We just fall apart in 4t* quaters always

Ben S.

as far as the players…
Baron – spurts…but then it never lasts..
Eric – cant say anything bad about him
Gomes (he totally stunk it up..i wanna see rasual start and aminu getting some PT)
Griffin – He is our only hope…he hussles, rebounds, scores…passes…plays with passion…he is a winner and hopefully the CLIPPERS logo on the front of his jersey doesnt suck the life out of him like it seems to everyone else ……
Kaman – same ole chris Kaman (i cringe when he gets the ball and he tries to score….I dont care about his “all star” selection)

Ima watch the first couple weeks….and by then I will know if things are gonna change if they dont….i might just watch the games for Blakes entertainment value….I was going to buy league pass to watch all the NBA games and the Clippers…but if they keep this up i dont think i am
: (

Clipper Derrick

Was at the game and was disappointed at the outcome. Optimistic, though. Blake “The Train” Griffin.

griffin

If clippers dont when against gsw or dallas i just dont know what to do i hope eric gordon becomes better if he does him and griffin can win us games

griffin

If clippers dont when against gsw or dallas i just dont know what to do i hope eric gordon becomes better if he does him and griffin can win us games

http://www.firedunleavy.com FD

Everything was great until the 7-5min left in the with quarter. Kaman shoots 4 times in a row and goes 0-4. VDN just replaces Brad Miller with Kaman.

It’s a lot better than the Dunleavy era though. I actually had fun at the game tonight.

hangtheGM

new orleans manages to get ariza and bayless. neil olshey has one task, get a small forward and we are still waiting. This guy is a lackey and needs to be publicly ridiculed for his incompetence. I’m sick of this penny pinching douchebag chrony of Sterling. Clip fans deserve better than this

RTT

Like I said earlier, with a young team, it’s all or nothing.

Throw them out of the building or choke in the 4th.

We choked.

RL

Tough loss, but a good game. And for all you so called Clippers fan whining… go jump on the Lakers’ bandwagon. If it’s that hard to roof for the Clips, like so many of you seem to note with your comments, why root for the Clips? The team is not that deep, the team does not have a solid SF, Baron is overpaid, Kaman chokes, Gordon got no handle, Olshey is inexperienced (bad GM), Sterling has a bad rep…. and on.. and on… and on. Of course I want the Clippers to win too, but in the end, I’ll still root for them even if they suck. I thought it was really sad that the boo birds were out after Kaman went 0-4 during Portland’s 15-0 stretch run. Damn… really? Kaman can’t have a bad game? For those of you whining, you all sure you’re Clipper fans?

http://www.firedunleavy.com FD

I don’t think people are really blaming Kaman. That’s what he does. He shouldn’t have been given the ball 4 times in a row.

hangtheGM

After so long you get sick of the blown games that could’ve produced wins. This org doesn’t have a winning mentality and that needs to change. Blake has a winning attitude, time to build around him and ship off anyone who isn’t on board with that. Our GM acquired losers in the offseason because they are cheap and people like you will sit by and accept that. Sure you’re a fan cause it seems like you want us to stay crippled with weak spots on the roster.

Scott S.

RL is right. All this website is is a bunch of people saying how bad the Clippers are, just like the media. Kaman had a bad game, it happens. He took good shots that he will normally make. Gomes played his role fine besides not hitting the open shots he had. They will start to fall. I’m not sure if there is hope for Davis at this point, but the offense was better when he was in. Everyone is jocking Rasual after one game. Did you see those shots? Most were terrible, step back 3’s with a had right in his face. If he missed, like he will tomorrow night probably, you guys would all be killing him. Gordon had 22 without making a jumpshot, that won’t happen often.

Griffin is a beast and I love him big time, but how come no one criticizes him. You guys a nit pick everyone else. How about him having 9 offensive boards and not boxing out on the other end. Second chance points lost us this game. He admitted to 6 offensive rebounds he personally gave up after the game. That is why he is a star.

It would be great if he came on here just and read how much you all hate the rest of his team. If he listens to most of you, we’ll watch him walk in free agency. He has a pretty good team around him, just a team without a lot of confidence. A lot of that can be attributed to the media and you fans who say “oh that’s just the Clippers being the Clippers.” How would you like to read how much your “fans” say how bad you personally are? Who would want to play here? Even the fans, the guys that are suppose to support them, bad mouth them. They hear enough from ESPN, they shouldn’t come to a Clippers fan website and read the same stuff.

I say let Kaman take shots at the end, they were good shots. Let him get some confidence. Let Gordon take over at times. Let BD run the break. Let Griffin get his 20 points on tips and free throws. Every game will have a lot to like and a lot to hate. What are focused on, good or bad? If you focus on the bad, that is all you will see. Go to the Blazers site and say how bad the Clippers were last night, not here.

hangtheGM

don’t need to blog at the blazers site they already know we were bad. This organization is blowing its opportunity with a legit superstar in blake grififn. As a fan I don’t see players of this caliber stroll on the team very often, so yea I want to complain when we lack the ability to give him a good team. He will certainly walk if he can’t win games because he’s a winner, just like Lebron did. I’m sure u can see that good players value winning over what bloggers think or any faceless internet person. We all root for the same team at the end of the day, just some of us would like to not blow this one like we have so many others. We have our franchise guy, now lets drop the dead weight and start winning for once.

Ben S.

by the way….Randy Foye reminds me of a ricky davis type bone headed player and he is running the point? really? at this point id rather see eric bledsoe do it…foye is horrible and this should be our starting lineup