Opinion: Ala. Senate seat likely to remain Republican, but may not be filled by Roy Moore

by Boris Epshteyn, Chief Political Analyst

Former Alabama Chief Justice and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore waits to speak the Vestavia Hills Public library, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017, in Birmingham, Ala. According to a Thursday, Nov. 9 Washington Post story an Alabama woman said Moore made inappropriate advances and had sexual contact with her when she was 14. Moore is denying the allegations. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

EDITOR'S NOTE: Boris Epshteyn formerly served as a Senior Advisor to the Trump Campaign and served in the White House as Special Assistant to The President and Assistant Communications Director for Surrogate Operations.

WASHINGTON (Sinclair Broadcast Group) - Roy Moore. That name's been all over the news the past week.

There have been numerous allegations that Moore engaged in inappropriate sexual behavior, including with teenage girls as young as 14.

If these allegations are true, he should step aside.

The problem is that the election is on December 12th and Roy Moore’s name cannot be removed from the ballot.

The likely outcomes are as follows:

1. Moore stays in the race and loses on December 12th,

2. He withdraws from the race and Luther Strange, the current Republican occupying that seat, or another member of the GOP, runs as a write in candidate.

3. Moore wins on December 12th, is then removed by a 2/3 vote of the Senate. His replacement will then be chosen by the sitting Republican governor of Alabama – Kay Ivey.

4. Moore wins and serves as senator of Alabama.

This race in the Yellowhammer State has widespread national implications. Right now, Republicans have the slimmest of margins in the Senate with 52 votes. Repeal and replace of Obamacare failed by just one vote.

If Republicans lose this seat that will leave only a 51-vote majority in the Senate. With tax reform legislation in the works as we speak and healthcare still under consideration – margin of error is key.

Here is the bottom line: chances are a Republican will end up in the Senate seat currently up for grabs. After all, Alabama voted republican in 2016 by a 28 percent margin. My sense, however, is that Republican will most likely not be Roy Moore.