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Obama polls: An up-and-down roller coaster

Several key polls show the president's job approval dropping into a negative range. | AP Photo

“I think the president could get reelected even in somewhat difficult circumstances because I think Romney is a relatively weak candidate,” Shrum said. “But [Obama’s team] has got to set this out as a choice. I think the top lines of the choice are pretty clear: It’s about who’s fighting for ordinary, hardworking Americans and who is standing up for the few.”

The problem is that ordinary Americans are proving a hard sell, even if Obama ekes out small victories over Romney in hypothetical matchups included in the polls.

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Even as Obama’s approval rating spiked into the 50s briefly at the start of the year, Obama’s top advisers held steady with their prediction that Romney, no matter how vulnerable he is, starts the general election with 46 percent to 48 percent of the vote in November.

They have also predicted that Obama is like a high-salaried earner with no savings account: He’s one economic shock from the political poorhouse.

“The one thing that’s clear is that the economy is driving this election and rising concern about gas prices is raising further doubts about the stability of the economy and President Obama’s qualifications,” said Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul.

For the past six months, Obama’s approval rating reads like a gerbil’s EKG, down sharply, up in a flash, plunging this week, according to a pair of major polls showing a major drop in the president’s approval rating.

In addition to the CBS/New York Times poll taken from March 9 to 11, an ABC/Washington Post survey taken over roughly the same period has Obama sitting at a more respectable 46 percent. That’s more consistent with other recent polls but still 4 points shy of the 50 percent approval he enjoyed last month.

Then there’s the Gallup daily tracking poll — a survey that Democrats say has consistently underestimated Obama’s true level of support. Earlier this week, Democrats touted it as a tonic, with Obama sitting at 49 percent, up sharply in the past month.

But a new version came out Tuesday morning showing Obama had slipped another 2 points to 47 percent.

The drop seems to correspond almost point-for-point with the rise in gas prices, a mini-economic crisis driven by the Iranian nuclear standoff, speculation and increased consumption that has driven the average per-gallon pump price to $4 per gallon. Some experts predict it could easily rocket to $5 by the summer — just as beleaguered voters are really tuning into the campaign.

Moreover, the increase wipes out many of the modest gains realized by Obama’s much-touted extension of the payroll tax cut, disproportionately hurting the white, working-class voters the president’s team has been courting in battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida and Nevada.

The fine print of the ABC/Washington Post poll illustrates his dilemma: The biggest drop in approval came from families earning less than $50,000. And over half of those surveyed strongly disapprove of his performance on the economy.

Republicans say that makes Obama, not Romney, fatally flawed.

Democrats have attacked the methodology of the polls, arguing that they over-sample Republicans and under-sample the president’s supporters.

“The major point is that the polls that show Obama’s job performance ‘falling’ have lower Democratic Party identification,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “Both the Post and CBS have significantly lower Democratic Party identification than they have in the past. Gallup, which has the best time series, shows the president actually up. That said, all the polls show Obama gaining among women.”

But in private, top Democrats don’t dispute the trend line of the polls and are desperately seeking some kind of solution to the increase in oil prices, which seem to have offset three months of solid job gains that have previously pessimistic economists finally predicting the possibility of a more robust recovery.

“I tend to think that the country has been through so much economic trauma since the collapse in 2008 that people are very sensitive and react to almost any bad news more strongly than they initially react to good news,” said Shrum — who thinks Obama might become a victim of his own success.

“One of the ironies here is that the economy gets better and demand for energy goes up, gas prices tend to go up,” he added.

He spent his time as a Junior Senator --- running for President. He has spent his time as president --- running for president.

Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Boxer, Kerry and the rest of the liberals, along with the biased media, Soros, Unions, Acorn, etc., based the entire 2008 campaign on lies. They have no problem governing against the American people. They simply cannot be trusted. God help us if the democrats get another four years!

Governors make better Presidents than Senators. They have leadership and management experience.

I predicted (about 9 months ago) that the Dems would distance themselves from Obama, and would be voicing concerns about this reelection while floating the idea of him withdrawing his candidacy in favor of another candidate by the end of March 2012. They would do this, I predicted, because the Dems would be afraid of riding his coattails over the cliff with him in the fall.

Looks like I missed my prediction by about a month. The exodus likely won't really catch steam till sometime late in April, after the Dems recognize that the Pres is truly destined for a huge loss in November. They will trust in the "up and down" and the general "stupid" voter

www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73947.html

to bail them out. But once they realize things aren't going to turn around. then its "LBJ time".

"The latest curb on Obama’s enthusiasm came after six weeks of generally good economic and electoral news —"

good lord:

Unemployment: both CBO (2/2) and Gallup (last weeki) have unemployment OVER 10%, odumbo has it at 8.3% why the difference: odumbo's solution to unemployment is to SIMPLY STOP COUNTING people whose benefits have run out and who have stopped looking for work.

A great many Americans are coming to terms with the fact that they made one huge and ill-conceived leap of faith when they voted for Obama in 2008. They foolishedly asumed they were voting for positive 'Hope and Change', misled by an irresponsibly biased and sycophantic media establishment.

They won't be fooled again.

For others, the fraud was evident from the start. These wrongly vilified people are sure to be lined up early at the polls on election day.

If this election is really decided by making a decision regarding the future for our children and grandchildren then there is no question Republicans will win. Who in their right mind could vote for someone who has been over his head,arrogant, self serving and prior to his ineptness as a President was nothing more than a community organizer. What ever little gains have been accomplished have been inspite of Obama and for sure not because of Obama.

Democrats will have to accept that Obama is done. Even an improved economy will not help. The Democrats will have to move more to the middle again .... same for the Repubs too. We need to improve our society to more civility .... yes, Obama says the same, but he doesn't act like it. America has enough of a Prez who does NOT walk as he talks. .... and we have seen the road he is walking ... scary!! First step for Obama fire HOLDER!

The best news Obama has gotten lately is that Romney might get the nomination. Byebye obamacare as an issue, the economy and jobs, things like green subsidies, and the second amendment. Heck Romney's record is more liberal than Obama's. After all Romney supported government mandates, carbon tax, or cap and trade schemes, gun bans, higher taxes, extreme abortion positions, and yes even green, or solyendra like subsidies.

With 25 million out of work and the president deliberately stifling this economy with the never-ending increase in energy, taxes, food costs, and now the economy-destroying Obamacare...which gives free health care only to the 30 million plus illegal aliens he has invited into this country?

Tell us Barry, is your sanctioned invasion our reparations for the chip you have for white Americans on your shoulder?

Thing is...we will all pay a price for either your stupidity or your criminal arrogance.

I say "no way...not now, and never again."

Now...time for you to go pack your bags for a long trip, because I don't want to pay for security for an illegal alien poseur Usurper.

The obamoids and his State run media are shaking their pom poms mindlessly for Dear leader. They're panicked that the American people are finally getting a look at just how bad things REALLY are and how bad the soiled underwear in Obummer's closet really stinks. They're spraying Fabreze in the closet and 'spinning' in panic waving their arms and shreiking like a man with a paper arse in a forest fire.. Hilarious !

They can't dupe even the left wing Obongoids any longer as even they grow angry about fueling their Prius' with $6 gas. I think this is hilarious!! LMAO !!

I cannot not wait to see the trench warfare to be waged on the convention floor in Tampa. It will be particularly interesting if the press were to employ lip readers with the usual political reporters.

Rassmussen and Gallup have him at or near the highest they've polled him in years and the latest PPP poll has him holding steady. In ALL polls Obama's favorables are at least 10 points higher than any of the Republican candidates and even in the statistical anomaly of the NYT/CBS poll, Obama STILL beats Romney.

A steadily declining unemployment rate, 250K jobs added a month and a Dow higher than it's been in the last 4 years will do that.