ISIS, the Stalking Horse

ISIS’ branding and propaganda has been enormously successful since they seemingly came out of nowhere to seize the city of Mosul last summer. Islamist groups from Yemen to Central Asia to Libya are purportedly pledging allegiance to the group and flying its black flag. Washington, the Kremlin, and Beijing are all warning of the danger of this next iteration of Tamerlane’s savagery (even in places like Xinjiang, where there is little sign of the group actually taking root among the Muslim Uighurs), while the Islamists themselves are putting out video after video that at once shock and elicit contempt.

The majority of ISIS propaganda that reaches the West is deliberately calculated to bait Western involvement in Iraq and Syria. Videos of beheadings, pilots being burned alive, and antiquities being smashed with sledgehammers are intended to induce outrage. So is the flaunting of the sexual enslavement of Iraqi and Yezidi women. They are made as savage as possible, not as deterrents, but as provocations. ISIS personnel have said this themselves; the “media officer” in the VICE video series “Inside the Islamic State” openly said to the Americans, “Send your soldiers, the ones we humiliated in Iraq. We will humiliate them everywhere, God willing, and we will raise the flag of Allah in the White House.” Every outrage is intended to draw Western militaries into the fight.

At the same time, some of their recruiting and training videos are serving a dual purpose. The ones that make it to Western eyes elicit mockery of their “ridiculous” training. The most recent example elicited howls of derision from many on American social media, mocking the martial arts demonstrations and crude camouflage in one scene. (I’d link to the video, but YouTube has taken it down.) In all honesty, however, Marine recruits doing MCMAP Tan Belt techniques and applying cammie paint don’t look much better.

To those unfamiliar with infantry techniques, such as potential ISIS recruits, the video might appear cool. So it works as a recruiting tool to the uninitiated. Among their enemies, many of whom either have forgotten how awkward it is to be a raw recruit or are simply used to choreographed “cool-guy” videos, contempt is built upon, reinforcing the idea that these are just a bunch of stone-age booger-eaters without any knowledge of modern warfare, who would be easily steamrolled if we just let the military off the chain and went after them.

The problem with this is, ISIS isn’t so easily defined. Much of its appeal, throughout the Middle East and beyond, has been its phenomenal military success. They have applied maneuver warfare and Maoist guerrilla warfare where the situation calls for it. When airstrikes began hitting them, they dispersed into smaller, more mobile units, making targeting vastly more difficult. They know how to conduct an insurgency as well as mobile maneuver warfare. They’ve demonstrated it. Those who would like to define their military capability by a training video would be better served observing some of their battlefield footage. It paints a much different picture; formations, fire and maneuver, use of cover, and supporting arms are all evident. The consensus from the ground has been that they are well-coordinated and trained.

The general impression of ISIS in the West can be summed up in The Atlantic’s article, “What ISIS Really Wants.” The picture is of a rabid, apocalyptic cult of hard-core Islam, seeking to draw the 72 flags to the Middle East to trigger Armageddon. Some of their fighters may well buy into this. Their internal propaganda is going to be calculated to fire up the cannon-fodder, and radical Islam has shown repeatedly that it is perfectly suited for this purpose. The image is also cultivated to sow terror on the fighting fronts and to provoke the West. If the West believes that the new Nazi Germany is trying to bring about the end of the world, they are going to act. And if they do, and intervene, then ISIS goes underground again, and begins to bleed the occupiers with greater ground-level support from the populace.

Not everyone involved with ISIS is necessarily a pious Muslim. Rumors have circulated since the fall of Mosul of Izzat Ibrahim al Douri’s involvement with ISIS. Al Douri was Saddam’s number-two man, the vice chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council, and the King of Clubs on the U.S. target deck. He was the most senior man of the Baathist regime in Iraq who was never captured, having fled to Syria in 2003. His group, the Naqshbandi, formally pledged allegiance to ISIS in August 2014, along with every other major Sunni rebel group in Iraq.

Little has been said since last fall about the Baathist connection with ISIS; exactly why is unclear, as the connection has never been disproven. It has simply fallen off the radar. Perhaps it isn’t fitting in enough with the picture of an apocalyptic death cult, which just about every player—those who want support, those who want to intervene, those who are using the threat of ISIS as a political bludgeon against their opposition parties, and those who want the U.S. to intervene in order to bleed its warfighting capability further—has an interest in perpetuating.

Much of this is deduction based on open-source information. The reality on the ground is far murkier than can be summed up in any number of articles. The reality of modern warfare is a web of groups, alliances, and political/strategic smokescreens. We may not know the full truth about ISIS for many years to come, but the simplistic, propaganda-fed picture isn’t accurate—that much we can determine.

About the Author

Pete Nealen
is a former Reconnaissance Marine and veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan. He deployed to Iraq in 2005-2006, and again in 2007, with 1st Platoon, Bravo Company, 1st Recon Bn. After two years of schools and workups, including Scout/Sniper Basic and Team Leader's Courses, he deployed to Afghanistan with 4th Platoon, Force Reconnaissance Company, I MEF. He is now the author of the military thrillers Task Force Desperate, Hunting in the Shadows, and Alone and Unafraid. His latest American Praetorians thriller, The Devil You Don't Know, is now available on Amazon.

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...Dutch leader says it like it needs to be said...
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http://rt.com/news/238553-dutch-jihadists-die-pm/
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...This is really something coming from the Dutch... as if back in 1968 you heard that Abbie Hoffman was trying out for Special Forces...
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-YP-

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http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is-bulldozed-ancient-assyrian-city-of-nimrud-iraq-govt/ar-BBih5Wp
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...AQ in Afghanistan blowing up ancient Buddhist statues. In Timbuktu, Islamic fanatics trying to destroy one of the biggest and oldest libraries in the Moslem world... Timbuktu used to be one of the major learning centers in the world. Fortunately the scholars got most out before the orcs arrived.
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-YP-

Poetslife

Agree.
I just published an article titled "ISIS Use of Social Media as a Force Multiplier" in the latest Journal of Civl Defense. Out takes are below. I will present an expanded version at the NCTCBRNe USA conference in WDC April 29 - May 1, 2015.
"ISIS, and
many other jihadi terrorist groups, has proven very adept at using social media
tools to win power, influence, recruits and strategic advantage over their
opponents. So far, they've mostly portrayed their strategic, battle field, psychological
and opponent success after they achieve it.
My
presentation, in contrast, will examine how they could use social media as a
significant force multiplier if they coordinate their assault with their social
media skills to cause panic, chaos, death and destruction in the United States.
​Back in
2008, I wrote an article in the TACDA Journal (attached) called, "Free Web
Safety & Emergency Tools" for the Journal of the American Civil
Defense Association (TACDA). It highlighted how first responders could use
social media tools to work better. ​
For this
presentation, I will highlight how easily ISIS or an ISIS clone can create
widespread panic through the use of social media such as Twitter, Facebook, YouTube,
Instagram as a force multiplier if they use these tools in tandem with an
actual physical assault within the United States.
A social
media force multiplier as I use the term here is an individual or small team
who, through the use of special tactics, can do the damage of a much larger
force. It is easy to understand that a skilled sniper is a force multiplier on
the battle field. Why? Because snipers are capable of force multiplication
without ever directly engaging the enemy, they are a commonly known force
multiplier. I propose that a few jihadi social media “snipers” can create the
kind of chaos, death, destruction, and panic to millions of American civilians.
Orson
Wells in his famous 1938 drama “War of the Worlds” achieved massive citizen
panic using just his voice and an earlier social media tool, the radio. ISIS
has far more sophisticated tools at its disposal, and it knows how to use them.
Once
underway this kind of large-scale citizen panic is difficult to contain. As
they have already cut off captives heads, engaged in mass murder and mass rape,
enslaved thousands, turned Christian churches into prisons, recruited, trained
and activated suicide bombers and engaged in other widespread and repeated
violent behavior, their launching multiple attacks inside the U.S. is easily
imaginable.
Given
their proficiency and experience coordinating their attacks with social media
propaganda, ISIS using social media as a multiplier force is also easily
imaginable.
The full
impact of that attack is not imaginable, although their use of these social
media tools for the past several years in the Middle East and globally shows
they are proficient in their use.
We can
shut down ISIS social media tools BEFORE their use of them results in large
numbers of death, panic, mayhem and destruction.
The consequences
of waiting until AFTER this social media force multiplier is used on a larger
scale are unimaginable. We can connect the dots on this one now. We can also
take care of this threat now if we show the wisdom, courage, and action that
our future depends upon."