Nicola Sturgeon’s Christmas gift

MPs in Westminster put down tools for the Christmas holidays today, and Theresa May was no doubt hoping for a well-earned rest. Instead, a 50-page memo from Nicola Sturgeon outlining Scotland’s proposals for Brexit landed in her in-tray.

As Christmas presents go, it won’t be the most warmly received.

Fortunately for May there aren’t any nasty surprises in the "Scotland’s Place in Europe" document. The Scottish question has been a fiendishly complicated one since the day of the referendum, which saw the U.K. vote to leave but Scotland vote — overwhelmingly — to remain. Today's formal proposals from Edinburgh simply restate Sturgeon’s position, and place the ball firmly in May’s court.

Sturgeon's fundamental ask is for Scotland to remain a full member of the European single market and the customs union. The U.K. as a whole, she argues, could stay in the single market as a member of the European Economic Area without betraying the mandate from English and Welsh voters to leave the EU. Alternatively, Scotland should be allowed to stay in the single market while the rest of the U.K. leaves.

The fallback option for Sturgeon is simple: a second referendum on Scottish independence. And her allies are insistent she has the nerve to go ahead with it.

Launching the proposals in Edinburgh today, the first minister was clear the independence option remains on the table. Officially, it is her preferred choice. But things have changed a little since October, when she announced — to great excitement — that the Scottish parliament would consult on plans for a new referendum.

At the time, all the indications were that May was determined to seek the hardest possible Brexit deal — out of the single market and customs union, with controls on immigration as the No. 1 priority. Scotland’s hopes for a soft Brexit, as outlined in today’s document, seem completely incompatible with that vision.

But the tone of remarks coming from ministers in Westminster has altered in recent weeks. Even the arch-Brexiteer, Trade Secretary Liam Fox, has suggested some kind of compromise deal could be sought on customs union membership.

It is early days, and the idea of the U.K. as a whole staying in the single market seems highly unlikely. But the Scottish wish for soft Brexit and the wishes of May’s government in Westminster don’t seem as far apart as they did a few short weeks ago.

What’s more, wouldn’t the threat of a Scottish independence referendum and the possible break-up of the U.K. be a useful foil for a prime minister seeking to persuade her Euroskeptic MPs a hard Brexit might not be best idea?

Maybe Sturgeon’s 50-page Christmas card will not be so unwelcome in Downing Street after all.

This insight is from POLITICO’s Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Read today’s edition or subscribe here.

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Renaldo Azzopardi

When will Scotland stand up for its rights and independence from England. It’s about time that Scottish people unite and stop being told what to do by London Parliament.

Posted on 12/20/16 | 4:08 PM CET

Arthur de Freitas

Economies are shaped over decades impossible to undo and re-do in a couple of years thus Brexit is going to be in the main a variation of an “exit” without “exiting” and potentially a prototype for a Charles De Gaulle’s “Europe of Nations”. But most likely the UK will stay in the single market, adhere to EU legislation without voting for it and pays a small discounted fee and the UK is free again. Unfortunately the EU, as is, will not work anyway but Nicola Sturgeon opinion is nevertheless right for the circumstances.

Posted on 12/20/16 | 4:57 PM CET

Maverick

YAWN ! Sturgeon or ‘Wee Krankie’ is just trying to remain relevant to the discussion for her own domestic audience. Let’s move on.

Posted on 12/20/16 | 4:57 PM CET

Chris

Well Renaldo, they already have been standing up to the English. If the English had a vote on Scottish independence then Scotland would have been out long ago. That’s what they should campaign for.

Posted on 12/20/16 | 6:50 PM CET

jane24

@ Maverick:
” …just trying to remain relevant to the discussion for her own domestic audience.”
Really? A considerable number of comments on threads in the British media in recent months, posted by commenters residing in England, who state they wish Westminster had someone of similar caliber. Whatever you think of Sturgeons politics, at least she has direction. May and her troupe fools have none.

Posted on 12/21/16 | 3:12 AM CET

den

@Renaldo Azzopardi

Scotland did exercise their rights, and chose to stay in the United Kingdom. You must be thrilled.

Posted on 12/21/16 | 9:05 AM CET

Scottish

Thankfully Sturgeon and the SNP are totally irrelevant in regard to Brexit.
There was no Scottish vote only a UK vote.
Sturgeon is desperate to keep her independence at any cost support going by trying to look like the Scottish people are being victimised yet again, boring and so predictable…and it does not work.
Sturgeon knows that once we leave the EU her independence dream is over as even her most rabid supporters will not also want to leave Scotland’s largest trading partner..the rest of the UK!
The SNP are a joke, they want to be “independent” but become dependent on the EU! keep the UK queen as head of state !!!! can you believe that?
The SNP are dying slowly, Sturgeon knows it, the majority of Scottish people do not support her independence nightmare as proven in the referendum, it would be even higher if held again but Sturgeon will never ask for another referendum..she knows it would be the end of her and the snp.
The UK gov must call her bluff, give the SNP nothing and enjoy seeing the snp lose again

Posted on 12/21/16 | 10:27 AM CET

Maverick

@jane24

“Whatever you think of Sturgeons politics, at least she has direction”

Completely agree – the direction for the SNP to remain relevant on the basis of their existence for Scottish Independence.

However they add absolutely no value for the UK regarding BREXIT because their aims and goals are for their own benefit and existence not for the UK and certainly not for Scotland interests. If perhaps they even had a proven political track records for helping Scotland whilst in power I would at least have some respect.

But with regards to BREXIT they are simply becoming an obstacle for self interest not acting in UK national interests. Even Sturgeon’s own BREXIT team have expressed concerns and doubts about her views.

So to suggest she has a direction – Yes she has – but not the right destination.

Posted on 12/21/16 | 12:18 PM CET

Me

If there is a hard Brexit, Scotland will leave. Especially as now the idea of leaving ECHR has been bandied about too as a possible next step. This has unnerved the Northern Irish too, if they see Scotland leave, it will not be that hard to sell them the idea of an Irish unification.
After all, Ireland have submitted the request to the EU to allow Norther Ireland to rejoin the single market in case it wishes to leave the UK and unite with RoI.