Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

The ASX is likely to take a fall in the next week as fears of 'bird flu' are re-visited, with the escalation of concern over Swine flu. The ascension of Swine flu as an issue after the Bird flu suggests that this problem does not just go away. Unless the Western World can force the developing world to comply, then the global economy remains under threat. Of course just as we have tsunami warning systems in place to warn us of impending doom, we can all stay at home for 5 days when another strain is discovered. On reflection I think it would be more helpful if the developing world just improved their standards of animal husbandry. Of course this will take some time to achieve, as policy makers are challenging the thought process of some shallow, stoic collectivists, but this is what needs to occur.The implication is that we will be looking at a few scares over the next few years as a plethora of new viral strains keep you and the rest of the world in isolation. Of course this will decimate consumer and business demand. Unless the politicians act quickly, we will be looking at depression. Will they let that occur? Not before flooding the economy with money. But what they don't realise, is that more money will not prompt people to spend. The implication is that once again the governments of the world are left without a viable monetary tool to stimulate economic activity. Do I expect them to pick up the 'sensible public policy' spade and do some work towards bringing some sanity to the Third World....no. I don't think they are so effective. I think after a few years Asia will wake up themselves and realise that 'It really is an objective reality'. That we cannot ignore cause and effect. Well herein lies my hope. :(At this point I am reminded of a quote from The Fountainhead by one of Ayn Rand's characters, the exact quote I cannot provide, but its something like this.Person A: So you play the stock market. What do you invest in?Person B: Human souls...and I sell short.Well when it comes to public administration, so do I. I think you can expect the market to tumble soon, and it will not just be the bird flu, but the forthcoming escalation in ARM resets. This is a time to go short on indices and stocks. But wait for the market to signal such a move. We are looking for that bird line to be broken, signalling a change of trend.There is of course the possibility of an injection of more government money, but actually I don't expect this to help. I think the market is going down regardless.------------------------------------------------Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The Swine Influenza Virus (SIV) would have to rank as one of the greatest market risks at this time. The risks posed are that this virus could be far more contagious than any other. We don't just have to worry about the communicability of the current strain, but the possibility that a more virulent strain will develop over time. I would also suggest to you a degree of inevitability exists with respect to pandemics. The longer that we defer a pandemic, the more virulent the forthcoming attack will be on humans, or at least some humans who have not been vacinated. I would therefore encourage everyone to get vaccinated for influenza. Of course that is not going to immune your investments from being stung. Even precious metals and related mining stocks will come under attack I believe because any threat posed is 'deflationary', and there is technical downside to the precious metals market. Lets consider the risks:1. The mere threat of SIV is an intangible, which means that there will be a gradual escalation of concern about the issue as evidence grows, and the signs of threat become more apparent. Intangibility has two sides to it, it can place it off your radar screen (as an investor) or it can mean the downside is not well understood. In this first stage, the former is the more prevalent.2. Actual fear of a pandemic will result in people not going out for entertainment, they will stop spending, they will reduce their level of economic activity and just save, maintaining the simplest lifestyle. The result will be greater levels of unemployment. We are therefore going to see a further contraction in the global economy and asset price deflation.3. The paradox is that the healthy, working people who are contributing the most to economic activity are the ones who stand the greatest possibility of dying. For this reason, if these people have high savings, you might see them taking 'voluntarily redundancy'.

My belief is that if this SIV outbreak is not contained it could well cause a depression. It would be the equivalent of people losing confidence in the banking system. In fact it will start bank failures. It might even precipitate a run on the banks, and even stating as much could cause a run on the banks.

For this reason, I would be inclined to convert all investments to cash. Certainly I would be selling all derivatives at this stage, including precious metal based derivatives. The banking system is under threat. Pay off your house, stock your house with tin food, non-perishable processed foods (e.g. fruit & nut bars), cereal, long life milk, etc.

Law and order will not be as strong as it might otherwise be. There will be police voluntarily retiring to avoid any threat to their families; whom will want to avoid the virus. There will be an escalation in desperation and criminal activity, whether its people stealing food, or ignoring quarantine orders. Such depends on the capacity of the government to anticipate the threat, and to contain the fear of those who are vulnerable.

If you are looking for someone to blame - look squarely at government and yourself. These events happen because humans all too often are prepared to subjugate their lives to governments, and renounce responsibility for thinking. There is no guarantee of these events unfolding. My belief is that they will because any system is only as strong as its weakest links, or its capacity to alienate itself. If I was in government I would be shutting borders and containing the problem, or better still taking order administration of airport hotels and creating a 5-day compulsory quarantine for travellers. Discretionary travel should be ended. The problem however is that - if this virus does not mutate soon - it could mutate any time in the future. It remains in the environment. The standards of animal husbandry need to be improved. Those countries which do not have high standards need to be isolated. The financial system is not in a condition where we can afford to have this threat lingering in the environment. I just want people to conclude at the end of the day that governments are evil! They are reckless, short term, self-indulgent losers who cannot be trusted....so why do you grant their system of administration. In coming months I will be outlining an alternative.

I expect stocks will sink back to their previous lows. Its possible that the market will go even lower if too many people die. At the end of the day I don't see this happening because I think it is relatively easy to overcome any outbreak. We live in an era of preserve foods. We need only isolate (or effectively quarantine) everyone in their homes for 5-days, and any threat should be over. The question is - will the government be able to coordinate that. I think there is room for confidence. There is also the possibility of having a practice run, as SIV might not be as virulent as other strains.

I posed some time ago the premise that the bird flu posed this type of threat to the economy. For the next 4 years the global economy is going to be hanging on a knife edge. When you are smoking that joint, if you are thinking nightmares, this is one scenario I would avoid contemplating. It is manageable, I just have so little confidence in government.-----------------------------------------------Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Monday, April 06, 2009

The All Ords is close to resistance as it ascends to 3700 points. There is a sell opportunity coming. Its important to note that the All Ords, like the Dow Jones, has broken its downtrend, and I would suggest you can expect it to trade sideways for the next 3 years. That does not mean flat, but short rallies in a consolidation band. I would expect a pull back to 3000 pts. In the short term expect a sell off, a short run recovery, before it ultimately falls back under the weight of ARM resets and higher unemployment, not to mention failed stimulus.

The Dow Jones Index has had a good rally of late running from 6700 points to 8,000 pts. It has been sold off at this juncture because its a point of resistance. It remains to be seen whether the index remains above this strong resistance. I would expect some temporary weakness to 7800 points, but I would expect the rally to continue to up to around 8,500 points before it gets sold off.

The reason for the weakness will once again be real estate, not to mention the growing queues of unemployment in the US. The reality is that the US will probably test those lows of 6700 points once more later in the year. This will likely coincide with the worst of the ARMs resets, and perhaps renewed fears of inflation.-----------------------------------------------Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Over the years, this ebook has been enhanced with additional research to offer a comprehensive appraisal of the Japanese foreclosed property market, as well as offering economic and industry analysis. The author travels to Japan regularly to keep abreast of the local market conditions, and has purchased several foreclosed properties, as well as bidding on others. Japan is one of the few markets offering high-yielding property investment opportunities. Contrary to the 'rural depopulation' scepticism, the urban centres are growing, and they have always been a magnet for expatriates in Asia. Japan is a place where expats, investors (big or small) can make highly profitable real estate investments. Japan is a large market, with a plethora of cheap properties up for tender by the courts. Few other Western nations offer such cheap property so close to major infrastructure. Japan is unique in this respect, and it offers such a different life experience, which also makes it special. There is a plethora of property is depopulating rural areas, however there are fortnightly tenders offering plenty of property in Japan's cities as well. I bought a dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for just $US30,000.You can view foreclosed properties listed for as little as $US10,000 in Japan thanks to depopulation and a culture that is geared towards working for the state. I bought foreclosed properties in Japan and now I reveal all in our expanded 350+page report. The information you need to know, strategies to apply, where to get help, and the tools to use. We even help you avoid the tsunami and nuclear risks since I was a geologist/mining finance analyst in a past life. Check out the "feedback" in our blog for stories of success by customers of our previous reports.

The Philippines property market remains one of the strongest in Asia thanks to rising incomes, rising population and rapid rates of urbanisation. The administrative reforms of the Arroyo government have given way to improved administration under Aquino. ASEAN countries can be expected to achieve even greater price gains than Western markets, demonstrating that this super cycle is far from over. Buying Philippines Property 2010 - Downloadthe table of contents or buy this 2-volume eBook at our online store for just $US19.95.

Investment Strategy

If you are investing for the long term, you still need an investment strategy. Dont be fooled by the rhetoric of fund managers. The reason they advise you to 'buy & hold' is because they dont want to compete with you in sell-offs. Markets and industrial sectors are cyclical, so they demand trading to get the best returns. Fund managers actually cant hope to match the performance of small investors (if you are half good) because they have to manage huge amounts of funds and charge you a fee besides.MY ADVICE is (i) look at a range of market indices and decide upon what level of correction would give you the justification you need to get in & out of the market. It might be a 5-10% retracement or a break of trend. (ii) Diversify if you dont have an intimate knowledge of the company or management. More than 30% in one company is aggressive.

The NZ property market is shaping up as one of the most attractive property investment markets for the next few years. High yielding property and the collapse of the NZD make NZ the perfect counter-cyclical investment if you buy right! In addition, there is no capital gains tax, transfer taxes, VAT/GST or wealth taxes in NZ, so rest assured that NZ property is tax-effective! Learn more now!

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Over the years, this ebook has been enhanced with additional research to offer a comprehensive appraisal of the Japanese foreclosed property market, as well as offering economic and industry analysis. The author travels to Japan regularly to keep abreast of the local market conditions, and has purchased several foreclosed properties, as well as bidding on others. Japan is one of the few markets offering high-yielding property investment opportunities. Contrary to the 'rural depopulation' scepticism, the urban centres are growing, and they have always been a magnet for expatriates in Asia. Japan is a place where expats, investors (big or small) can make highly profitable real estate investments. Japan is a large market, with a plethora of cheap properties up for tender by the courts. Few other Western nations offer such cheap property so close to major infrastructure. Japan is unique in this respect, and it offers such a different life experience, which also makes it special. There is a plethora of property is depopulating rural areas, however there are fortnightly tenders offering plenty of property in Japan's cities as well. I bought a dormitory 1hr from Tokyo for just $US30,000.You can view foreclosed properties listed for as little as $US10,000 in Japan thanks to depopulation and a culture that is geared towards working for the state. I bought foreclosed properties in Japan and now I reveal all in our expanded 350+page report. The information you need to know, strategies to apply, where to get help, and the tools to use. We even help you avoid the tsunami and nuclear risks since I was a geologist/mining finance analyst in a past life. Check out the "feedback" in our blog for stories of success by customers of our previous reports.