Saturday, December 21, 2013

Week 16

Lock of the year!!

Minnesota at CincinnatiLine:Cincinnati -8Total: 47.5

This total is way to low. The Vikings have scored at least 20 in their last 8 games, 4 on the road and 4 at home. During that stretch they've also scored in the 30s twice and the 40s once. Their defense has given up at least 20 in every game this season. They've averaged given up 30.4 points a game this season. Over their last 4 games the average score has been 31-26.

The Bengals have scored at least 41 in each of it's last 3 home games. Over their last 4 games the average score has been 30-22.

These teams have both been scoring, and allowing a ton of points the whole season. Why should it stop now?

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Week 13

I took the Tampa Bay/Carolina game over 41.5 based on the fact that this season games
set at 41.5 have gone under 1 time and over 7 times. Further, games with a line
of 41 have gone under 4 times and over 11 times. I figured why fight it? I'll
take the over.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Thoughts on Week 7

In Week 6 action there were 6 unders and 9 overs.

I'm looking at totals this week as going over once again. Last
week's actual total numbers were strange. This week the totals line show the
lowest median number and the second lowest average number. That says over. In
fact, it should be an easy over week.

So far we've only seen one game all season with a total of 38.5 or less. Very unusual.

Home teams went down for the first time this season, although just barely
at 7-8. Home dogs continue to impress with another winning week, 3-2. They've
won every week so far and are sitting at 19-10, 65.5%

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Week 6 Best Bet

Oakland at Kansas CtiyLine: Kansas City -8.5Total: 40.5

Kansas City is one of the two best
stories this season in the NFL. I've got to go with Denver as the top story.
They've got a great season going on, sitting at 5-0. Oakland is one of the worse
teams in the NFL, bottom 25% for sure. The thing about these two teams is
that they have a long history of close games and winning at each others home
field. The last time the Chiefs beat the Raiders in Kansas City was 2006. Over
the last 6 games the Raiders are 5-1 against the Chiefs. I'm not saying look for a Raider
victory, but the line is set too high at 8.5. If it's the typical AFC WEST
slugfest, the Raiders should cover.

Week 5 Report

The home teams won again. They've won every week, going 44-29 ATS. 60.3% And you know how people say the home
dogs are the best bet in football? Guess what? They're right! Home dogs have won every week and are
sitting at 16-8 ATS. 66.7%

Unprecedented. This has to end, but who knows when? And the week it ends
comes, it could end with the home teams going 7-8-1.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Week 5 Best Bet

New Orleans at ChicagoLine: New Orleans -1Total: 50

Right now the game comes down to not only who's got the better quarterback,
but which one has the hot hand right now. The answer to both questions is Drew
Brees. He looked unstoppable in last weeks game. The Saints are hitting their
stride.The Bears are a talented team, but they don't seem to have jelled yet. The Saints are the better team right now and giving up just a point, they're
the play this weekend. PROGnosis: New Orleans -1

Friday, September 27, 2013

Week 4 Best Bets!

I like 2 games this week.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Line: Indianapolis -8.5Total: 42.5

Indianapolis is a young team that is getting better all the time.
Jacksonville is the worst team in the league and they should get steamrolled by
the Colts. This is a high line, but it should be an easy cover.

PROGnosis: Indianapolis -8.5

New England at AtlantaLine: Atlanta -2Total: 50

I think this total is way too high for 2 teams struggling on offense. While
I don't see this as a defensive battle, I don't think either team can sustain
long drives to score touchdowns. It's hard to see how they can reach 50 without
a ton of turnovers and returns.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Thursday Night Action

San FranciscoatSt. LouisLine: San Francisco -3Total: 42I like the 49ers in this spot. They were embarrassed at home last week, but they had a few things thrown at them at the last minute. This week they play a divisional opponent who they know very well, they've had time to adjust to personnel changes and they can't overlook this game. I expect a focused, superior effort from them this week. Prognosis: San Francisco -3

Week 3 Recap

Home favorites had a winning week for the first time this season, going 8-4
ATS. (Against the spread.) Home dogs have won ever week, now sitting at 8-4 ATS for
the season. Home teams overall this season are 26-19 ATS, 57.8%.

Look for the visitors to have a big week 4.

In 2012 there were 25 games all year with a total of 38.5 or less. So far
this season, ZERO. The lines makers have pushed the average total up. This may
be because of new rules, but I would lean towards totals under in week 4. The
average total in week 4 is 45.0, which historically speaking, says an under
week.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Week 3 Observations

Home dogs are 6-3 ATS (I expect a bounce back this week to visiting favs
winning.)

Home teams are 16-14 ATS

Favs are 13-17 ATS (I expect a bounce back here as well.)

I have no best bets this week. I was going to go with Minnesota as one
tonight, but I'll just stay off of it. They are in a desperate situation and
play their first game at home. As badly as they have played, they could have won
both games so far and have been in both games. Cleveland is the right team, at the right time, for them to come up big. I like the Vikings even at -7.

Friday, September 13, 2013

I have 3 Best bets this week.

New Orleans at Tampa BayLine: New Orleans -3Total: 47

The Saints are riding high after getting their head coach back from his
year long suspension. They still have the offense that can score at any time
from anywhere. The defense needs some work, but they can do the job for the most
part. Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in football and I just don't see them
keeping up with the Saints in this contest. This is the right team at the right
line.

PROGnosis: New Orleans -3

Minnesota at Chicago

Line: Chicago -5.5Total: 42

Minnesota will only go so far as their 3rd year quarterback will take them,
which is to say if they want to go to the playoffs, they need to contact
Ticketmaster. (Airfare not included in the cost of the ticket.) What a waste to
have the best running back in football behind a quarterback who makes so
many foolish mistakes. Last week they were dominated on both lines of scrimmage,
supposedly the strength of the team. Chicago looks to be a solidly average team.

This game is being played outdoors where the Vikings have had a terrible
time the past few years.
The Vikings have
lost 11 of their past 12 road games against the Bears and this doesn't look like
the time for an offensive explosion from either team. Last season the two games
they played had point totals of 38 and 35, with both games going under. The
Best Bet here is under 42.

PROGnosis: Under
42

San Francisco at
SeattleLine: Seattle
-3Total: 44.5

This should be a great
game between two of the best teams in all of football. Seattle has been very
tough at home. Last season they won every game at home and covered 7 of them.
The 49ers are the team to beat this season in the NFC and I think they
should win this game outright. They have enough offense to take control and keep
control, of this game.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Thursday, Sept. 5th, 2013

Baltimore at Denver

Denver -7.5

Total: 48.5

Aside from a Super Bowl rematch, this is about the best game
I can think of to open another great NFL season. Talk about a revenge game! The
Broncos have had this game on their minds for 8 months.I can’t think of a better example.It should be a great game. Let’s break it
down.

The Ravens have lost 8 starters since the Super Bowl. While
it’s true some of those players weren’t who they used to be, Ed Reed and Ray
Lewis spring to mind, they certainly had the veteran leadership that a team
needs. They might be able to gain strength as the season progresses, but they
start out the year not as strong as last season.

The Broncos are just as good as they were last year, maybe
somewhat better because Manning has another year under his belt with the team.

I fully expect the Broncos to win the game, but that isn’t
the issue is it? It isn’t who wins or loses that matters. It’s who covers the
spread. Historically, the Super Bowl winners have a letdown the next season.
That certainly comes into play here, but that isn’t a secret. Most of the
betting public knows that and it’s accounted for in the line.The line seems too high here. I think the
Broncos should be more of a 5.5 favorite. People may say 2 points isn’t a lot of
difference, but in this case, because it passes the magic point spread of 7,
it’s a big deal. As far as the revenge factor goes, I believe that the Ravens
have something to prove as well. They don’t think of themselves as a team that
won the Super Bowl because of a fluke play in the Denver game and they’re
feeling disrespected about being a 7.5 dog as the world champs.