Making the case for the right to life of every innocent, from Lake County, Illinois

Monday, April 4, 2016

Politics

Cruz leads Trump in two Wisconsin polls, Sanders has narrow lead over Clinton in one poll

By Dave Andrusko

Sen. Ted Cruz

Two recent polls put Texas Senator Ted Cruz ahead of Donald Trump in
Wisconsin (by 5 and 10 points, respectively) while Democratic Socialist
Sen. Bernie Sanders is narrowly ahead of Hillary Clinton in a new
Marquette University Law School poll.
While a Sanders win in the Badger State next week by itself would not
seem to change the delegate dynamics on the Democratic side, should
Trump lose decisively, it would increase the odds he would not have the
1,237 delegates necessary to win the Republican presidential nomination
and thus a contested convention.
Harry Enten, writing for fivethirtyeight.com
carefully tracked and probed the results of the Basswood Research poll,
which put Cruz’s lead at 5 percentage points, and the poll conducted by
Marquette University Law School, which had Cruz enjoying a 10
percentage point cushion.
“Wisconsin has 42 delegates — 18 go to the statewide winner and three
go to the winner of each of the state’s eight congressional districts,”
Enten explained. In other words, if Cruz wins the state, he has a base
of 18 delegates plus three from each CD he wins.

Donald Trump

The Marquette poll has a regional breakdown of its results.
“Cruz holds comfortable leads in Milwaukee, the Milwaukee suburbs and
Green Bay,” Enten explains. “Those roughly align with the 1st, 4th,
5th, 6th and 8th congressional districts. If Cruz wins all these
districts, he’ll take an additional 15 delegates. If the Marquette poll
proves accurate, Trump will be competitive only in the Madison
television market and the northern and western parts of the state,
roughly the 2nd, 3rd and 7th congressional districts.”
Gov. John Kasich in ahead in one district–the 2nd congressional
district area, home to the University of Wisconsin. Enten concludes

If Trump were to lose the 2nd
congressional district to Kasich, in addition to the five districts to
Cruz, that would leave only the six delegates up for grabs in the 3rd
and 7th districts — and the trends there, in the state’s north and west,
aren’t good for Trump.

Adding

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton

“Overall, if the Marquette poll
is dead accurate, the delegate count from Wisconsin will likely break
down something like Cruz 33 to 39, Trump 0 to 6, and Kasich 3.”

Meanwhile that same Marquette University Law School poll showed
Sanders upping his modest lead over Clinton from one percentage point
(44% to 43%) to four percentage points )49% to 45%).
This comes on the heels of Sanders’ sweep in caucuses in Washington,
Alaska, and Hawaii and an uptick in his national support among Democrats
and Democratic-leaners.