NFL Week 11 Cheat Sheet: Peter Schrager’s picks for all 14 games

No more picking against the Chiefs

Well, I nailed that Seahawks win over the Patriots, had the Cowboys besting the Steelers and predicted a Rams victory over the Jets. But, it's all for naught when you underestimate the Chiefs every week. Time to rectify that. Let's get right into it.

Week 10 record:10-4

Overall record: 85-60-2

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Week 11 Cheat Sheet trivia question

Who are the only three rookie quarterbacks to beat Seahawks teams coached by Pete Carroll, whose Seahawks will take on Carson Wentz and the Eagles this week?

Thursday night: Saints at Panthers

Both of these teams suffered gut-punch losses last Sunday, with Carolina coughing up a 17-point lead in its own building and New Orleans losing on the old blocked extra point returned for a 2-point conversion. For Drew Brees and Sean Payton to avoid another season without January football, they need to rally the troops and get it going on a short week on the road. Brees is 3-3 in primetime games played outdoors, but he does have a playoff win over Philly from a few years ago in his back pocket. This is one of those "Loser Leaves Town" games in the NFC South division race, and I think the former MVP from way back when (Brees) gets the best of one from 2015.

The pick: Saints 24, Panthers 20

Sunday: Steelers at Browns

The Steelers haven't lost five straight games since the 2009 season, and I just don't see them dropping another in Cleveland on Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger, an Ohio native, was famously passed over by the Browns in the 2004 NFL Draft. He's a career 19-2 against Cleveland as a starter. That's the single highest winning percentage by any starting quarterback with more than 10 starts versus any opponent since 1990.

The pick: Steelers 30, Browns 10

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Sunday: Ravens at Cowboys

The Tony Romo situation is one that will dominate airwaves, and rightfully so, as his candid, raw and heartfelt news conference Tuesday both established whom the starting quarterback is and got rid of any awkwardness between Romo and the rest of the team. His role is defined -- he's the backup -- and now he's dressing. I covered the Cowboys-Browns game as the sideline reporter a few weeks ago and noticed Lucky Whitehead, Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley, Brice Butler, Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott having an absolute blast, dancing before the game in the end zone. I looked over at Romo in the sweatshirt, far removed and almost felt bad for the dude. Romo has nipped all strangeness in the bud. He can now dance with those guys, fully in uniform, and give everyone in Big D the confidence that he is not only on board but fully engaged with whatever happens from here. I love Dallas to keep it rolling Sunday.

The pick: Cowboys 33, Ravens 24

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY SportsTim Heitman

Sunday: Jaguars at Lions

Cheat Sheet readers know I'm not picking against Matthew Stafford at home any time soon. I worked the team's three home wins during that October streak and know that there's something special up in Motown this season. They're in first place in the division, Stafford is still in the MVP conversation and the defense got healthier during the bye week. A playoff team doesn't lose to the Jaguars at home in late November. If they're that squad, the Lions win.

The pick: Lions 27, Jaguars 21

Tim Fuller

Sunday: Titans at Colts

The Titans looked dominant against the Packers last week, and are averaging 33.7 points over the past six games (the most in the NFL). And yet, I like the Colts on Sunday. The Colts have won 10 straight games against the Titans, with an average score of 29.2-20.0 in those games. They own the Titans. And as much as Tennessee dismantled the Packers, remember that the Colts gave a similar whooping to Green Bay up in Lambeau two weeks ago. The Colts are coming off the bye, have been focusing on this one and have read headlines about the Titans’ dominance all week. Give me Luck and Indy.

The pick: Colts 34, Titans 24

Sunday: Bills at Bengals

The Bills are on their first three-game losing streak since 2013, and Cincinnati is staring at the very real prospect of missing the playoffs for the first time in six years. Must win for both teams, and I have to roll with the home team. How will Buffalo stop A.J. Green? Teams are passing all over the Bills this year, and the defense has given up a woeful 33.6 points per game in its past three outings. Is it time to stop the bleeding for Buffalo? Not yet. Look for Green to go off.

Sunday: Buccaneers at Chiefs

If there's any team in the AFC that can give the Patriots a run for their money this year, it's Kansas City. Ten straight wins at home, winners of 17 of 19 games in the regular season and built to beat New England with elite pass rushers and cornerbacks -- the Chiefs are a scary outfit. Are they prone to some head-scratching games? Sure. But I don't see this week being one of them. It'll be close, but Alex Smith -- the No. 1 pick in 2005 -- gets the best of Buccaneers and their first overall pick from 10 years later.

The pick: Chiefs 24, Buccaneers 20

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Sunday: Bears at Giants

The Giants are 6-3, winners of four straight and have an advantage over the Cowboys head-to-head. And yet, if you ask a Giants fan how they're feeling this week about their team, they'll tell you the same thing. "Eh." It's very Giants to beat the Bengals, Eagles and whoever else and then to lose one of two against the Bears and Browns. The Giants of old? Maybe. But I just don't see it happening this year. The emergence of Landon Collins, the courageous fourth-down aggressiveness of Ben McAdoo and the surprisingly reborn running game have me feeling much better about the Giants than I did in September. They're a good team. Good teams beat the Bears at home.

The pick: Giants 34, Bears 24

Sunday: Cardinals at Vikings

The Cardinals have not beaten the Vikings in Minnesota since 1977, but I like Larry Fitzgerald to get the best of his hometown team in front of his hometown fans on Sunday. Arizona is an intriguing team right now. It’s not playing particularly well, it’s not getting the offensive production we expected and this isn't the same squad from 2015. And yet, the Cardinals are in the mix, David Johnson is gashing opponents, and no one wants to face Bruce Arians' squad. For all we read about the Vikings mighty defense, Arizona's D is second in the league in average yards, points, and passer rating against this season. I just don't see the Vikes generating enough offense to beat them on Sunday.

The pick: Cardinals 20, Vikings 13

Getty ImagesChristian Petersen

Sunday: Dolphins at Rams

The Rams are having their official groundbreaking for their new stadium facility Thursday, but there's a lot more excitement about the groundbreaking of Jared Goff. I am excited because I think the addition of Goff to the offense means more ways for coordinator Rob Boras to use Tavon Austin, Todd Gurley and emerging first-year talent Pharoh Cooper. The Rams defense has given fits to its past three opponents, and I think it will rise to the occasion once again Sunday. Here's an upset pick: Give me the Rams and their baby-faced new signal caller. Expect one or two funky gadget plays and a Johnny Hekker fake punt. All the tricks are coming out of the Jeff Fisher bag.

The pick: Rams 20, Dolphins 16

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Sunday: Patriots at 49ers

Bill Belichick and Chip Kelly have a lot of mutual respect and great history. And last year, Chip got the best of Belichick up in Foxboro. But that Philly team had different talent than this San Francisco defense, New England wasn't coming off a primetime loss and there were some guys resembling an NFL defense on that Eagles D. It's been brutal for Niners fans. Look at the bright side -- this could be the last time you see hometown hero Tom Brady, and there's a great honoring of Eddie D on Sunday. Take what you can in a year like this.

The pick: Patriots 33, 49ers 17

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Sunday: Eagles at Seahawks

The Eagles are a very different team in Philadelphia and outside of the City of Brotherly Love. Philly, just 1-4 on the road, has not won a game outside its building since it knocked off the Bears in Week 2. I don't see the Eagles suddenly boarding the buses and knocking off Seattle in front of the 12s. They'll get another road win soon enough, but this week doesn't appear to be in the cards.

The pick: Seahawks 27, Eagles 20

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY SportsCary Edmondson

Sunday night: Packers at Redskins

My favorite story in all of football this year is not Dak Prescott. It's Redskins new left tackle Ty Nsekhe's journey to the gridiron. Between 2009 and 2016, Nsekhe was signed by 10 different teams in the Arena Developmental League, AFL, CFL and NFL. Undrafted out of Texas State, Nsekhe earned up to $150 a week (pre-taxes!) playing for the Arena Developmental League’s Corpus Christi Sharks in 2009. Last week, he gave up zero sacks to Minnesota's ferocious front four. I love Nsekhe and hope Al and Cris give him the SNF treatment he deserves.

The pick: Redskins 36, Packers 24

Monday night: Texans at Raiders (Mexico City)

The last time the NFL had a game in Mexico, Josh McCown lit it up for 385 yards passing and the Cardinals beat a bad 49ers team led by Tim Rattay. This one should be better than that with two potential playoff teams going at it. The Raiders are coming off a bye and have arguably the best offensive line in football, but I'm taking the Texans. The most disrespected and overlooked 6-3 team in the league, Houston will quiet the critics with a big win over the Silver and Black.