Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Free Pick

Published October 19, 2014.
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Play on: Buffalo Bills -5.5

The Key: The Vikings couldn’t get anything done offensively in last week’s 17-3 home loss to Detroit. They had only 212 yards of offense for the game. Expect Minnesota’s offensive shortcomings to haunt them once again in Buffalo. The Bills rank first against the run, eighth in scoring defense and 11th in total defense. They are also among the league leaders in sacks with 19.

The Bills were kicked at home by division rival New England last week, and I expect them to be highly motivated here as a result. They are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons in home games following a loss, winning by an average score of 26.3 to 18.3 in this spot.

While Minnesota has performed well defensively, it has been susceptible to the run, and I believe Buffalo will take advantage. The Bills should be able to establish the run game, which will set up some big play opportunities in the play-action passing game. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Lay the points.

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