I wonder if there's any chance that UA will order 77W in the near future. Their 777s are mostly 77A or 772ERs. I guess UA needs to add newer version of 777 such as 77L or 77W to their fleet to compete with DL or AA's recent order of 77W. Maybe UA is doing pretty well with their 777s now but I just want to see their brand new 77W with sharp raked winglets. What do you guys think? Is it going to happen soon?

I see no reason. They have a large 747-400 fleet that has just undergone cabin refurbishment and will comfortably take them into the latter part of this decade when they have multiple newer-generation aircraft options to use as replacements.

But there is a chance they might go for larger A350s, 748, or even A380.

However the 77W is the lower risk, and easier integration of the bunch.

I'm sure Mr. Boeing has a nice proposal on the desk of someone at UA.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):They have a large 747-400 fleet that has just undergone cabin refurbishment and will comfortably take them into the latter part of this decade when they have multiple newer-generation aircraft options to use as replacements.

I don't know how you define "comfortable", but the 744s are becoming an ever larger operational liability.
Just look at the new schedules with the type being pulled from ORD and other markets to be centered out of SFO solely now (except LAX-SYD & HNL-NRT) to aid with reliability.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):I don't know how you define "comfortable", but the 744s are becoming an ever larger operational liability.

UA knew they needed them to last until the end of the decade (until the A350-900s could start arriving) so I expect that is why they invested in the new cabins and whatever heavy maintenance checks might have been needed to keep them in operation.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):Just look at the new schedules with the type being pulled from ORD and other markets to be centered out of SFO solely now (except LAX-SYD & HNL-NRT) to aid with reliability.

The 747-400 only makes sense on routes you can consistently fill it with passengers. Also, between uprating the MTOW on the pmUA 777-200ERs and the addition of pmCO 777-200ERs (which already had higher MTOWs), the need for the 747-400 on a range basis is no longer as acute so UA can now pull them out of ORD (at least during the low season).

To be honest, as much as I'd love to see a 77W flying for UAL, I suspect the time has past. UA has A359s on order and a top up could come in the shape of an A350-1000 order, though I think the 777X will be of great interest to them. UA will certainly enjoy playing the two against each other ...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):UA knew they needed them to last until the end of the decade (until the A350-900s could start arriving) so I expect that is why they invested in the new cabins and whatever heavy maintenance checks might have been needed to keep them in operation.

Unfortunately that plan is not holding up. The 744 fleet is becoming a growing reliability handicap, and quite a nuisance to the new management team at UA.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):The 747-400 only makes sense on routes you can consistently fill it with passengers. Also, between uprating the MTOW on the pmUA 777-200ERs and the addition of pmCO 777-200ERs (which already had higher MTOWs), the need for the 747-400 on a range basis is no longer as acute so UA can now pull them out of ORD (at least during the low season).

Also unfortunately the move to center 744 ops at SFO was not based on market demands, but based on reliability issues and clearly spelled out so the company memos. Along with it goes the ORD 744 crew base permanently.

Without these ongoing issues we would see the 744 at IAH or EWR already, but stretching the fleet out would only leave room for further failure.

So I ultimately suspect something interim will happen as the 744 fleet wont last till post 2018.

The 77W is great for airlines that need widebodies in the near term for growth. UA's short term widebody needs should be taken care of by 787 deliveries. They should have 10 by the end of next year. With the domestic 14 2-class 767-300s being moved to international duties, that more than counteracts the loss of 10 762s being retired. UA in the near term should be ok. In 5 years or so, they should actively be taking A350s and 787s, so their midterm needs are also taken care of.

UA doesn't need airplanes in the near term, so the advantage of the 77W isn't that useful to UA. The 747s and 767s may be less efficient and aging, but they don't need replacement ASAP. UA can pick and choose the best airplane for their fleet from all the options. That includes 77W, A330, 787-8/9/10, A358/9/10, 777X and A380. I don't think that an airline like United which keeps their airplanes in service until they get parked in the desert would be best suited by purchasing 77Ws right now. In 20 years the 77W will be considered a fuel hog, and UA only has to wait a few more years to get the next generation of widebodies.

If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):Well if the 747's can't last past 2018, that effectively negates the rumors of a UA A350-1000 order, since those can't arrive before 2018.

And that would make the 777-300ER the only available option. There are 7 UFOs ordered in 2011 and 2012... Maybe Boeing will lease them some 77Ws in exchange for UA to become a 777-9X launch customer.

The addition of the 787's and conversion of the domestic 767's gives UA a lot of operational flexibility with their existing fleet. They have 50 787's on firm order with it likely they will have a mix of -9's and possibly -10's plus the options they hold. They also have 25 firm orders for the 359 which can be converted to the 351 if they wish.

The 744's are a liability and they will get rid of them as soon as can be justified given the investment in refurbishments and maintenance. I just don't see the value in ordering the 77W (which means they'd wait 18-24 months to receive) and the capital costs associated with them when they have 75 firm wide body orders already on aircraft which will work just great for their route structure.

I wouldn't be so sure...they are isolating them to a maintenance base essentially, and the aircraft are about as old as the oldest 777s. I think they will probably try to shift a few more to spares to help with reliability issues, and perhaps they could even shift some 777s to 744 routes as more of the 763 and 764 mods come online.

The only other realistic option would be a ~5 year lease on 20 or so 773ERs, which I suppose is possible but would probably cost more than it's worth.

Does anyone know why these aircraft have become so unreliable? Does it have anything to do with moving the heavy checks to HKG?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):Well if the 747's can't last past 2018, that effectively negates the rumors of a SA)">UA A350-1000 order, since those can't arrive before 2018.

And that would make the 777-300ER the only available option. There are 7 UFOs ordered in 2011 and 2012... Maybe Boeing will lease them some 77Ws in exchange for SA)">UA to become a 777-9X launch customer.

Why not 10 or so 77W's on a EK type 10-12 year lease? Allows for exit mid 2010's when ample supply of 77X or A351 are around.

Now back to facts, are any more of the 744's leased and does anyone know the lease expiration plans for the 744's?

I would like to see them order a few 77Ws, even for a short term lease, especially if they used the livery they have on the 787 . But like many others have said, its likely not to happen with the number of A350s and 787s they already have on order. Remember also that the A350 was intended to be (not sure if it still is) the 747 replacement. Plus I can see them being a potential operator of the 777X in the future.

Some of the talk of the 747 needing replacement can actually be done by the 787.
At least in the south pacific, we could see instead of LAX/SFO-SYD-MEL both LAX and SFO getting melbourne direct and possibly even Brisbane as well, negating some of the need. That being said, There is definitely heading east still a market for it. If you can fill it, its cost are still low, so if United have a few spare sitting around SFO and not pushing them to the max all the time, it should be fine. One or two go tech, there's always another there waiting to take over.

Although Id say on routes to places like hong kong there is a business case for them, they might not bother with anything larger than the A350, but since that one is coming fully expect the -1000 to end up at UAL.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):he 744s are becoming an ever larger operational liability.
Just look at the new schedules with the type being pulled from ORD and other markets to be centered out of SFO solely now (except LAX-SYD & HNL-NRT) to aid with reliability.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):Without these ongoing issues we would see the 744 at IAH or EWR already, but stretching the fleet out would only leave room for further failure.

I don't think there ever really was much of a chance that UA would run 744s out of EWR. For some reason, nobody does (except for the one LH flight). Kind of strange when just across the river you have JFK which sees quite a few 744 and A380 operations.

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 13):Why not 10 or so 77W's on a EK type 10-12 year lease? Allows for exit mid 2010's when ample supply of 77X or A351 are around.

The board of directors would never agree to putting that much debt on the balance sheet and then amortizing it away. That would commit the airline to posting paper losses every quarter.

If they tried to lease them, the lease rate would be so high that UA would need 95% load factors to cover their ownership/acquisition costs. With the way UA structures its balance sheet, it has some of the lowest airplane ownership costs in the industry. US accounting rules aren't friendly to replacing airplanes like how Ryanair, Emirates or Singapore do.

If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):I see no reason. They have a large 747-400 fleet that has just undergone cabin refurbishment and will comfortably take them into the latter part of this decade when they have multiple newer-generation aircraft options to use as replacements.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2): But there is a chance they might go for larger A350s, 748, or even A380.

I see larger A350s and possibly 748i's in the future; but the A380??? That's a huge stretch to me.

If the 77x gets off the ground well enough, maybe UA would order it as a 772 replacement.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 11):Does anyone know why these aircraft have become so unreliable? Does it have anything to do with moving the heavy checks to HKG?

I don't think it has so much to do where the heavy checks are performed. Keep in mind UA's 744's are older so require more maintenance anyway due to the number of cycles each aircraft has flown. Some were also stored for a period of time. Finally, there were some maintenance items deferred during UA's bankruptcy that had to be addressed.

They did put $$ into refurbishing the interiors of these aircraft. Their F and J class cabins are pretty much industry standard. In Y class, its very basic but they still fill the aircraft. I'm sure UA knows how long they need to fly the a/c to make back the money invested in heavy checks and refurbishment. I believe they are due to retire one 744 sometime next year.

With all 744's based at SFO, it will be easier to give these older a/c regular maintenance attention and have a spare close at hand if an issue occurs at SFO with a scheduled aircraft.

There really isn't a business case now for the 77W. If they were ordered a few years ago (say 2005 or 06), it would be a perfect transition aircraft for their upcoming 359 order. Unfortunately, UA was not in a position to order the 77W at the optimal time.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):UA doesn't need airplanes in the near term, so the advantage of the 77W isn't that useful to UA. The 747s and 767s may be less efficient and aging, but they don't need replacement ASAP. UA can pick and choose the best airplane for their fleet from all the options. That includes 77W, A330, 787-8/9/10, A358/9/10, 777X and A380. I don't think that an airline like United which keeps their airplanes in service until they get parked in the desert would be best suited by purchasing 77Ws right now. In 20 years the 77W will be considered a fuel hog, and UA only has to wait a few more years to get the next generation of widebodies.

Spot on. The 77W was the 744 replacement for the past 5 years and probably for the next 5-10 years, depending on how the 350 program goes. In the near term UA is only retiring the 762s and will continue to take 787 deliveries. When UA really needs new widebodies in 10-15 years the 77W will essentially be the 744 of the time

25 something
: That is exactly what I was thinking. What airports does UA operate 744s into and are they slot restricted? (to increase frequency on smaller metal).

26 Stitch
: At the moment, the A350-1000's EIS is penciled in for 2017. The A350-800 is penciled in for 2016, but as customers continue to convert and/or defer d

27 LAXintl
: Like I said, believe things have come to a head especially with the 744 fleet scheduling handicap crimping things rather sooner and faster then ever w

28 SonomaFlyer
: I don't think UA needs to wait till 2018 to get their 359's. I thought they were scheduled to get them in 2016 assuming the a/c isn't badly delayed. T

29 LAXintl
: Keep in mind getting enough frames (A359 if you wish) to replace 24 744s is not a single year event -- likely take 3. So even if the A359 are indeed a

30 strfyr51
: Where did you get the IDEA that the 744 is a liability??! And the A380?!? are you kidding? If the 747 is a liability then the A380 would NOT be any a

31 zeke
: I think only a small chance. Do we know if they actually are, or is the lack of investment into maintenance starting to show. UA is one of those airl

32 PHX787
: The 77W sure, but the 380?????? On which routes? IMO, US Airlines didn't order the 380 because of the frequency over capacity ratio. Especially with

33 zeke
: Do you understand what the sentence "could operate with aircraft smaller than an A380 or 77W very easily" means, it means smaller aircraft.

34 LAXintl
: UA's own management. Its a growing reliability headache, while its also been a profitability headache with limited use across the network.