In one of the most significant labor decisions in decades, the Supreme Court today held in Janus v. AFSCME that public sector workers cannot be forced, over their first amendment objections, to pay dues or fees to a union as a condition of employment. The implications for organized labor, in both the public sector and private sector, are significant. For example, the HR Policy Association reported that a recent survey by AFSCME of its 1.6 million members found that only 35% of those members would definitely pay dues if not required to do so. There is little question that union treasuries will be negatively impacted by this decision. This, in turn, may impact the ability of unions to continue to organize and represent employees in both the public and private sector.

Public sector union dues and agency fees are currently a major source of political contributions to candidates who favor union positions. If Janus forces unions to spend their funds on representation activities instead of political donations, the power of unions in Washington, state capitals and city halls will be diminished.

Several international unions, including the Service Employees International Union and AFSCME, have been active in both their public and private sector negotiations in trying to plan for a future that would involve the decision rendered by the Supreme Court today. The SEIU, for example, has proposed in numerous negotiations that work previously done on-site by paid union representatives would now be coordinated and centralized out of the International Union’s offices to eliminate the need for SEIU representation to attend meetings on site at each of their organized facilities. Both unions also have preemptively sought “recommitments” from their membership related to their financial support for their union.

The Janus decision could allow for an estimated 5 million government workers in twenty-two states to stop paying agency fees, the portion of union revenue that funds collective bargaining. Twenty-eight states previously passed “right to work” laws, which allow workers to avoid paying even the agency fees. It is certainly possible that the Janus decision will further embolden efforts in the non-right to work states to propose legislation to further limit the ability of unions to require union security provisions that would provide for the payment of dues or agency fees.

While implications of the decision will play out over the next several years, it is certainly a body blow to organized labor that will impact not only the public sector but private sector as well. Employers should expect immediate complications in all negotiations, as unions seek to deal with a significant loss of revenues.