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I don't think the poll question is complete. I think you need to talk a little bit about what it "real" means and what "existence" is.

We had a thread here started by an ardent (militant?) atheist entitled "God is imaginary". He made an argument that imaginary things do exist because they have an impact on physical things by virtue of our actions. So, fictitious characters - like gods and tulpae - do exist, just not in the way religious people - and tulpae fans - think.

Similarly, member Hermes frequently asked theists how god exists. He would talk about different kinds of existence. for example:

So, all these things exist and are real, but not in the same ways. If you asked Hermes and a theist if god exists, they would both say "yes". But their meanings would be vastly different. On the one hand theists would say god exists as an invisible, incorporeal being of great power, kind of like a living human exists, only more. But Hermes might say god exists as a concept or emotion, dependent on human minds, not an actual being capable of autonomy.

To get back to the OP, I believe tulpae exist, just not in the same way as you and not in the way you mean in the poll. I think they are essentially fictional characters people have invented in their minds, like imaginary friends, but have no more sentience or autonomy than characters in movies or books. They are mental models of other personalities.