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Monday, November 20, 2017

Transition in the Middle East: Transition to what?

Transition is the
name of the game in the Middle East and North Africa. The question is transition
to what?

Dominating the
answer is an Arab autocratic push for a Saudi-led regional order that would be based
on an upgraded 21st century version of autocracy designed to fortify
absolute rule. To achieve that autocrats have embraced economic reform
accompanied by necessary social change that would allow them to efficiently
deliver public goods and services. It is an approach that rejects recognition of
basic freedoms and political rights and is likely to produce more open and
inclusive political systems that ensure that all segments of society have a
stake.

At the core of the
volatile and often brutal and bloody battle that could take up to a quarter of
a century to play out is the determination of Arab autocrats to guarantee their
survival at whatever cost. Geopolitics play a major role in Arabic autocratic
ambition. To compensate for their inherent weakness and lack of the building
blocks needed for sustainable regional dominance, Arab autocrats except for
Egypt, the one Arab state with the potential of being a dominant, long-term regional
player, need to contain first and foremost Iran, and to a lesser degree Turkey.

It is a
geopolitical struggle, dominated by the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran,
that has enveloped the Middle East and North Africa for almost four decades and
progressively undermined regional stability; fuelled the rise of extremism and
jihadism; encouraged supremacist, intolerant and anti-pluralistic tendencies
far beyond its borders in countries like Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia; and
turned it into the most volatile, repressive, and bloody part of the world.

Littered with the
bodies of the dead and the dying, countries like Syria, Iraq and Yemen have
been scarred for generations to come and are struggling to ensure territorial integrity
against potential secessionist ethnic, regional and religious challenges.
Possible US-backed Saudi efforts to destabilize Iran with attempts to stir
ethnic unrest risk the Islamic republic and Pakistan becoming the next victims.
Countries such as Lebanon teeter on the brink.

Restive populations
meanwhile hang in the balance, hoping that their continued surrender of
political rights in new social contracts unilaterally drafted by autocratic
leaders will bring them greater economic opportunity. In some countries like Egypt
expectations have been dashed, in others such as Saudi Arabia expectations are
unrealistic and poorly, if at all, managed.

The successful and
brutal Saudi and UAE-led counterrevolution has killed hopes and popular energy
that exploded onto the streets of the Arab cities during the revolts of 2011
and produced tyrants and mayhem. For now, it has all but erased popular will to
risk challenging autocratic rule that has failed to deliver or that has created
expectations that may prove difficult to meet.

That is not to say
that like in the period prior to the 2011 revolts, popular anger and
frustration is not simmering. Like in the walk-up to the uprisings, popular
sentiment remains ignored or unrecognized by officials, scholars and pundits, who,
if it explodes are likely to be caught by surprise. No one knows whether it
will explode and, if so, in what form and what might spark an explosion.

It was the
self-immolation of a fruit vendor in Tunisia in late 2010 that set the Middle
East and North Africa alight. While history may not repeat itself literally,
events six years later in the Rif, a rebellious region of northern Morocco,
sparked by the death of Mouchine Frikri, an unemployed street merchant, suggest
the writing may be on the wall.

Mr. Fikri was
crushed to death in a trash compactor while trying to retrieve fish confiscated
by the authorities. A year of protests since Mr. Fikri’s death suggests that
the effectiveness of King Mohammed VI’s constitutional reforms in an initially successful
bid to co-opt the demonstrators as well his support for the Rif’s indigenous
Berber culture and promises of state investment that would turn the region into
a manufacturing hub have either run their course or fallen short.

Nasser Zefzafi, a 39-year-old
unemployed man with an understanding of the power of social media, has despite
the government’s use of security forces, succeeded with online videos and fiery
speeches denouncing corruption and dictatorship, to not only keep the protests
alive but also encourage their intermittent spread to other parts of the
country. The Moroccan capital of Rabat witnessed in June its largest
anti-government protest since the 2011 revolts.

“Regimes have
closed off channels for political expression, and responded to popular protests
with increasing brutality. The governments of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and, to some
extent, Morocco, epitomize Arab regimes’ seeming inability to escape the
autocracy trap – even as current circumstances suggest that another popular
awakening is imminent,” said Moroccan-born former Israeli foreign minister
Shlomo Ben-Ami.

Mr. Ben-Ami’s
timeline may be optimistic, but the underlying message remains valid. Regime
survival-driven, government-controlled economic reform that seeks to ensure
that private enterprise remains dependent on the public sector, limited social
reforms, exclusionary rather than inclusionary policies, and rejection of
political change may buy time, but ultimately will not do the trick.

Autocratic regimes
in the Middle East and North Africa are, for now, riding high buffeted by the
ability to divert public attention with promises of economic change, the
spectre of Iran as a foreign threat, US support for regional autocrats and
containment of Iran, and the fuelling of ethnic and sectarian tension.

At best, that buys
Arab autocrats time. The risk is festering and new wounds that are likely to
come to haunt them. Four decades of global Saudi propagation of Sunni Muslim
ultra-conservativism to counter what initially was Iranian revolutionary zeal
but later transformed into Iranian strategy in a long-standing covert war has
turned Arab Shiites and their militias into potent political and military
forces. The spectre of the Houthis organizing themselves on the border of Saudi
Arabia on the model of Lebanon’s Hezbollah is but the latest example.

Autocratic
self-preservation and the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, coupled with disastrous US
policies, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq, have wracked countries across
the region and fostered a generation of Syrians and Yemenis that is likely to
be consumed by anger and frustration with their human suffering and what is
likely to be a slow rebuilding of their shattered countries, whose existence in
their current form and borders is at best uncertain.

In short,
transition, in the Middle East and North Africa has deteriorated into a battle
for retention of political control. It constitutes a struggle for the future of
a region that with near certainty will produce more conflict as well as black
swans that could create even more havoc long before it yields sustainable
solutions that ensure equitable economic development and transparent and
accountable rule of law.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile