Hunter of Chin Li's Boo Hoo Flu

thanks for the heads up, hadn't been paying attention to the cooked books,

January jobs report disappoints again

The U.S. economy created a disappointing 113,000 new jobs in January, the Labor Department reported Friday. Analysts expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 185,000 jobs last month.

The unemployment rate fell again to 6.6 percent. the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force. Unemployment has fallen from a post-recession high of 10 percent, reached in October 2009. In December, it fell steeply to 6.7 percent from November's 7.2 percent.

January's disappointing results compounded a weak report in December when a much-lower-than-expected 74,000 jobs were created. It was revised upward by just 1,000 jobs Friday.

I think the graphs indicate it would be more like 12400, but like the 1929 crash the lack of confidence in markets / government is the larger issue. It would be hard to paint that as a necessary correction.

Of course in the craziness of today were the health care law that everyone screamed "was now the law of the land" only to be changed at will by order of BO, maybe anything goes.

But if it be of God, ye cannot overthrow it; lest haply ye be found even to fight against God.

Hunter of Chin Li's Boo Hoo Flu

that is why the correlation charts are cool, but not really representative,

as all the numbers and values have changed,

then the form fitting starts, shortened time frames, elongated time frames and so on to make it work,

whereas a more true version would be if it took a 47% haircut then,

a 47% haircut now would equate to dow 7997, and nowhere near the value as you stated

edit to add:

On October 29, William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks in order to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the large decline in prices. Due to the massive volume of stocks traded that day, the ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 p.m. that evening. The market had lost over $30 billion in the space of two days which included $14 billion on October 29 alone.[17]

After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12%, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. After the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act was enacted in mid-June, the Dow dropped again, stabilizing above 200. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932 when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89% loss rate for all of the market's stocks. For most of the 1930s, the Dow began slowly to regain the ground it lost during the 1929 crash and the three years following it, beginning on March 15, 1933, with the largest percentage increase of 15.34%, with the Dow Jones closing at 62.10, with a 8.26 point increase. The largest percentage increases of the Dow Jones occurred during the early and mid-1930s, but it would not return to the peak closing of September 3, 1929 until November 23, 1954

As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.

The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.

I never left the Repubican party. The Republican party moved Left from me.

A nobody

As usual you see what you want to see, and are misled by the chart. Which of course is the point, they want to fool the gullible.

The chart skews the data, the Cow hasn't had the run now that it had in 1929, they had to fool with the scaling to make it work. If the red line follows the blue line, it will end up in the 12-1400 area. The percentage is irrelevant, because the percentages are not equal on the chart.

"One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before."

"Another objection I heard two months ago was that there are entirely different scales on the left and right axes of the chart. The scale on the right, corresponding to the Dow’s DJIA +1.22% movement in 1928 and 1929, extends from below 200 to more than 400—an increase of more than 100%. The left axis, in contrast, represents a percentage increase of less than 50%.

But there’s less to this objection than you might think. You can still have a high correlation coefficient between two data series even when their gyrations are of different magnitudes.

However, what is important, McClellan said, is that the time scales of the two data series need to be the same. And, he stresses, there has been no stretching of the time dimension to make them fit."

Platinum Bling

So, 40% "hair cut" (decapitation) in a period of 5 weeks or so (at scale). This would be DOW 9600. Aren't there enough "circuit breakers" in the laws now to prevent that precipitous of a decline?

For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but
against the rulers,
against the authorities,
against the cosmic powers of this darkness,
against evil, spiritual forces in the heavens.
- Ephesians 6:12Without prejudice. All rights reserved

Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?

If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP:

I never left the Repubican party. The Republican party moved Left from me.

Gold Member

Wait, aren't you the guy posting the chart that says the market is going to crash by April 1?

If I believed that chart 100%, I would definitely be buying stocks. Can't you see the runup coming immediately? You buy now, and use those proceeds to sell later. I can see the similarity, but I think we get more of a run lasting a longer time. It's hard for me to believe in a crash coming in February, but hey, maybe. After all, this chart guy is really smart and all that...:SLEEP: