Thoughts on Life, Love, Politics, Hypocrisy and Coming Out in Mid-Life

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

The GOP is Literally Dying Off

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For those who value logic, reason and being in touch with objective reality, Politico Magazine has an article that should give hope for the future. The topic of the article? The fact that the Republican Party base is literally dying off. Despite changing demographics, changing attitudes on gay marriage, climate change, and a host of other issues, the GOP has bet the farm so to speak on prostituting itself to aging whites, many of whom are ignorance embracing Christofascists. A demographic that is literally dying off. In terms of a long term political strategy, the GOP seems to me to have a death wish. Here are article excerpts:

It turns out that one of the Grand
Old Party’s biggest—and least discussed—challenges going into 2016 is lying in
plain sight, written right into the party’s own nickname. The Republican Party
voter is old—and getting older, and as the adage goes, there are two
certainties in life: Death and taxes. Right now, both are enemies of the GOP
and they might want to worry more about the former than the latter.

There’s been much written about how
millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been
much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for
the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: Hundreds of
thousands of their traditional core supporters won’t be able to turn out to
vote at all.

The party’s core is dying off by the
day.

To make matters worse, the GOP is
attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to make inroads
with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth, the GOP’s slow demographic
slide will continue election to election. Actuarial tables make that part
clear, but just how much of a problem for the GOP is this?

[Q]uick back-of-the-napkin math
shows that the trend could have a real effect in certain states, and make a
battleground states like Florida and Ohio even harder for the Republican Party
to capture.

[O]f the 61 million who voted for
Mitt Romney in 2012, about 2.75 million will be dead by the 2016 election.
President Barack Obama’s voters, of course, will have died too—about 2.3
million of the 66 million who voted for the president won’t make it to 2016
either. That leaves a big gap in between, a difference of roughly 453,000 in
favor of the Democrats.

[W]hat if Republicans aren’t able to
win over a larger share of the youth vote? In 2012, there were about 13 million
in the 15-to-17 year-old demo who will be eligible to vote in 2016. The
previous few presidential election cycles indicate that about 45 percent of
these youngsters will actually vote, meaning that there will about 6 million new
voters total. Exit polling indicates that age bracket has split about 65-35 in
favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016,
Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time
voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an
almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.

[P]olitical demographers are seeing
this election as a watershed. Millennials now have higher numbers than Baby
Boomers, and the mortality rates will expand that difference in coming
elections. The very conservative Silent Generation, born between 1925 and 1942,
is declining at a rapid pace. The mortality rate for 70-to-74 year-olds is
6,058.4 per 100,000 each year, compared to 110.1 for the 30-to-34 age group.
With each death, a little political power passes from one generation to the
next.

[T]here is one certainty: Dead people don’t vote, at least not as much as
they did in Chicago in 1960. When the political operatives start dissecting and
predicting how the electorate is going to show in 2016, they should take into
account not only the who and why of the ones that will vote, but also the ones
who aren’t showing up this time around because they’ve kicked the bucket.

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Out gay attorney in a committed relationship; formerly married and father of three wonderful children; sometime activist and political/news junkie; survived coming out in mid-life and hope to share my experiences and reflections with others.
In the career/professional realm, I am affiliated with Caplan & Associates PC where I practice in the areas of real estate, estate planning (Wills, Trusts, Advanced Medical Directives, Financial Powers of Attorney, Durable Medical Powers of Attorney); business law and commercial transactions; formation of corporations and limited liability companies and legal services to the gay, lesbian and transgender community, including birth certificate amendment.

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