>> Friday, July 18, 2008

From all accounts, the NHC will officially classify our coastal low pressure area as a Tropical Depression with the 11pm advisory. The system has come nice convection with it, and some decent strengthening is possible.

By the way, if this thing becomes Cristobal, it will be one of those names that we all butcher here in the meteorological community. Jeff was just in here and were discussing the pronunciation. The pronunciation is listed as krees-TOE-bahl on the NHC page.....my odds of consistently saying that correctly are slim.

The NHC did not upgrade our coastal low with the 5pm update period. However, the low pressure is organizing, and it could very well become a classified system tonight or tomorrow.

A recon plane determined the system in the Caribbean Sea is still not a tropical depression.

If you are heading to the coast this weekend, here is an idea of what to expect....

For the Myrtle Beach area, periods of showers and storms Saturday with some improvement Sunday. For the North Carolina coastline, including the Outer Banks, scattered showers and storms for Saturday with lots of showers and storms Sunday. Improvement by Monday for the Outer Banks.

>> Thursday, July 17, 2008

It looks like we will not see the NHC classify any of the tropical disturbances out there this evening with the 11pm update period.....based on their wording in the 8pm discussion. We will talk more about our 'home-grown' system tomorrow.

And a quick story for you....I was out with Jayden (my oldest daughter, 5 years old) earlier this week at a function that really required a lot of relative quiet and good behavior. She really did quite well, but as we were walking from one room to another, I reached for her to hold my hand, and she wouldn't do it....gave me that "I'm big enough to not need you to direct me" look. When we got in a more private place, before we headed into the next room, I leaned down and told her sternly "In the future, when I tell you to hold my hand, you do it. OK?" She shook her head in understanding, and then said "Daddy, is the future in that room?"

Looks like the Charlotte and Triad regions will miss out on the chance of some soaking rains from the tropical moisture. A low pressure area is developing east of Jacksonville and will lift up the coast into the weekend. If you are beach-bound, rain and storms look like a good bet at times. In fact, there is some tropical developmental chance with that low, so keep a close eye on its progress. This will not become a major tropical system, but I would not be completely shocked to see this one classified at some point.

The latest computer modeling is shunting the best rains tomorrow and into the weekend into points east of Charlotte and the Triad. Not good news....we could really use those nice soaking tropical rains. I will take a deeper look into things when I get into work this afternoon....

>> Wednesday, July 16, 2008

A few quick notes....

1. It was a nice morning this morning with lows way down into the 60s area-wide. I noticed how nice it felt when taking the garbage to the street. The normal mugginess of July mornings was replaced with a nice, comfortable feel to the air. I think lows tonight will again be well down into the 60s.

2. There is a tropical disturbance near the Florida Panhandle that will lift northward over the next few days. See the sat image below. It looks like that will spread in some nice rain chances for us Friday and Saturday. Let's keep hope alive.

3. There is a well-defined tropical wave affecting the eastern Caribbean Islands today. A recon plane is investigating the system now, and this could become a tropical depression relatively soon. This system has Yucatan tropical system written all over it.

>> Sunday, July 13, 2008

Some showers and storms fired up through the Piedmont this afternoon and evening on the pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing cold front. Some storms have been strong, with some small hail and gusty winds, but as of this typing, no severe weather.

As that front continues to approach, we will have the chance of some showers and storms through the night and into at least Monday morning. Drier air will try to work in by the afternoon hours, ending the rain chances in the Charlotte and Triad regions in time.

The weather will be warm and dry through mid-week before more potential rain arrives for Friday and the weekend. The Euro model as well as some runs of the GFS try to pull some type of tropical moisture into the Carolinas during that period....so we will see.

Bertha is scraping just east of Bermuda and will head out to sea this week. A tropical wave in the southern Atlantic bears watching for development this week. In fact, a good chuck of computer modeling does indeed develop that wave into a tropical system.