Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260648
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DIG SEWD INTO WRN TX BY 27/00Z. THIS WILL OCCUR AS 90-100KT
500MB JET ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 26/18Z AND 27/00Z ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX.
AT THE SURFACE...CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. SWD TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL NM TO S-CENTRAL TX AND NEWD INTO THE TN
RIVER VALLEY. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS UPPER FORCING MOVES ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...CYCLOGENESIS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MID/LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z WITH
STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND MUCH OF SWRN AND FAR WRN TX.
...SWRN/FAR WRN TX AND FAR SRN NM...
STRONG WLY TO NWLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
ENHANCE DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. A BROAD
REGION OF 20-30 MPH WILL ENCOMPASS AN AREA FROM NEAR DRT NWWD ACROSS
THE BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MTNS...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
FAR WRN TX AND FAR SRN NM. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
FAVORED MTN PASSES OF SWRN TX.
AS UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD...SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD/SEWD TO THE TX
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER FORMS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDELY VARYING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80F AT DRT TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WRN TX/FAR
SRN NM. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...STRONG
LOW-LEVEL DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL YIELD MARGINALLY
LOW RH MINIMUMS OF 20-30 PERCENT. DISCUSSION REGION HAS BEEN LARGELY
VOID OF RAINFALL DURING PAST 7 DAYS. COOL/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WRN TX/SRN NM AND MARGINAL RH MINIMUMS WILL PRECLUDE
ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS /ESPECIALLY IN MTN PASSES/ MAY CREATE LOCAL FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS WHERE DEAD GRASSES PERSIST. LASTLY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT TRACKS
SEWD ACROSS SERN NM/SWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..BANACOS.. 03/26/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260648
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD. THE PROMINENT SRN STREAM 500MB TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
90-100KT JET WILL TRACK FROM ERN TX/WRN LA AT 27/12Z EWD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL RH CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
ERN GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKS FROM CENTRAL MS SUNDAY
MORNING ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY BY 28/00Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EWD ACROSS LA AND WRN MS BY MIDDAY.
...SERN AND S-CENTRAL TX...
SOME LINGERING MODERATE WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL PERSIST IN
POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS SRN/SERN TX DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY
STRONG ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE CYCLONE. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS
WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN/S-CENTRAL TX AND
AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF TX. SOME MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT MAY EXIST IN TRIANGULAR REGION BOUNDED BY HOU-CRP-DRT
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITH SRN ROCKIES SURFACE ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY BUILDING
EWD INTO THE REGION...WINDS ACROSS MOST OF TX SHOULD GRADUALLY
SLACKEN DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
CRITICAL WILDFIRE THREAT. REGION WILL BE MONITORED IN EVENT LATER
MODEL RUNS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AND/OR
LOWER RH VALUES THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..BANACOS.. 03/26/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...