Cost Estimate Risk Analysis (CERA)

CERA is an industry-leading cost risk analysis service. It comprises an in-depth review of the risks and uncertainties that influence cost estimate outcomes, followed by an assessment of the contingency, estimate accuracy, and management reserve required to execute the capital project or turnaround. The assessment utilizes AP-Canada’s unique proprietary CERA software, which produces a suite of informative reports to aid decision making.

CERA is a powerful tool to improve cost predictability. AP-Canada’s proprietary methodology provides a structured format for producing a realistic cost estimate that reflects the uncertainties and risks that a project or turnaround might face. Our veteran team possesses extensive knowledge of project and turnaround estimating.

At the end of a CERA engagement, your team possesses not just a stronger cost estimate for one engagement, but the knowledge and understanding to build stronger cost estimates for all future engagements.

The CERA process walks users through the following steps:

Identify risks associated with the capital project or turnaround through group brainstorming, highlighting both threats and opportunities

Assess the cost impact of the uncertainties and risks based on their potential variability, impact, and probability of occurrence

Build a CERA model that reflects the uncertainties and risks, and will produce an “S” curve showing contingency required and confidence levels

Feedback to understand the drivers of contingency and accuracy range, giving the team the information needed to focus future work on improving the estimate quality and gaining corporate financial sanction

Benefits of AP-Networks’ CERA include:

Align stakeholders on the need to establish a credible cost estimate to achieve the agreed-upon scope

Increase understanding of the quality of the technical definition, execution strategy, and estimating assumptions

Provide confidence to leadership that a project or turnaround has achieved the required level of design definition and estimate accuracy for financial sanction