Ringo: CU Buffs' Andre Roberson needs to stay

Andre Roberson, center, could experience the joy of another NCAA Tournament run if he returns to CU next season instead of leaving for the NBA.
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CLIFF GRASSMICK
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Andre Roberson might be on the verge of making a huge mistake.

All the evidence we have at our disposal indicates NBA general managers, scouts and coaches don't see the Colorado forward as a first-round pick in this year's draft and some question whether he's a second-round pick. There just isn't any reputable evaluator of NBA talent or Internet mock draft making the case that Roberson should forgo his senior season in Boulder and turn pro.

If Roberson eschews that evidence and decides to turn pro anyway on the advice of some snake oil salesman, he does so at his own peril. And what a sad day that would be.

Yet, with each day that passes without a decision, it at least gives the impression that is where this is heading.

Of course he wouldn't be the first. Already this year there have been a handful of underclassmen who have decided to turn pro despite significant holes in their game. The hole Roberson must fill is his lack of a consistent perimeter shot and the ability to create a shot when he has the ball in his hands 25 feet from the basket, which is where he will be much of the time at the pro level.

Roberson has succeeded in college playing stellar defense, rebounding better than anyone in the nation and scoring in transition or after offensive rebounds. But at 6-foot-7, he will play further away from the basket on both ends of the floor as a pro, somewhat negating his rebounding. And he will have to score against and defend some of the best players on the planet if he manages to stick in the NBA.

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The draft is only getting deeper with other underclassmen declaring and that is only pushing Roberson further down the draft boards and in some cases, completely off it.

You wonder what the hold up is. You wonder who is telling him not to listen to the NBA underclassmen advisory committee, a panel made up of talent evaluators in the league which review individuals who are considering turning pro and offers a projection of where they might be drafted.

Worse yet, who is telling Roberson not to listen to coach Tad Boyle, the man who recruited him to Colorado three years ago when his best offers were from smaller schools in lesser conferences? Boyle has helped Roberson develop into a very good college player who, at this point anyway, falls just a little bit short of being good enough to play at the highest level.

Boyle hasn't come right out and said so, but after listening to him talk about Roberson on Thursday at his end-of-the-year press conference, it became clear he believes Roberson would be best served by returning to school for his senior season.

He compared Roberson's choice to the one faced by former Buff Alec Burks two years ago. Remember Burks was considered an NBA lottery pick and that held up on draft night when he was selected No. 12 overall by Utah in 2011.

"Andre, it's almost just the opposite," Boyle said. "The reward is iffy. The risk is pretty drastic, pretty major."

ESPN analyst Chad Ford is among the most respected NBA draft prognosticators going. Ford lists Roberson as the 54th best prospect among the top 100 this year. If that held up on draft night, Roberson would be a late-second round selection and very likely destined for at least a year or two of playing in the NBA Development League or overseas.

NBA teams do not give million dollar guaranteed contracts to guys picked 54th in the draft.

The NCAA says Roberson must make a decision by April 16 to keep his eligibility intact. But the real deadline doesn't arrive until April 28 when the NBA mandates all early entry candidates declare their intentions.

Boyle said he has done all he can do to make sure Roberson has the best information at his disposal for making the decision. He said he reviewed players with similar résumés from the past four drafts and showed Roberson where they ended up being picked and where they are today.

"One of the things I talked to Andre about is, 'Andre, you're going to develop next year as a basketball player. You're going to develop next year,'" Boyle said. "'The question is, where do you want to develop? Do you want to develop in college? Do you want to develop in the D League? Do you want to develop overseas? Do you want to develop on an NBA bench where you're working out with an assistant coach on game day and getting better? Where do you see yourself? Where would you be comfortable? Where would you be most happy?' That's really the decision he has to make."

When Burks had the opportunity to turn pro and make millions two years ago, I wrote that he would be crazy not to do so. Money isn't everything in this world, but it certainly opens plenty of doors and solves a lot of problems.

By going and earning that money while it was available to him, Burks could easily return to school at some point in the future and complete his degree, making sure he always had something to fall back on.

Roberson won't be making millions next year, but he could work his tail off here in Boulder to make sure he gives himself the best shot possible of earning that big pay day a year from now in the 2014 draft. And he could have a lot of fun doing it.

He's already the big man on campus. Imagine how his stature, reputation and legacy at CU will grow if he decides to return and be the leader of what is looking like the best CU team in history on paper.

In the meantime, he can also become the Buffs' all-time leading rebounder and the most accomplished player in the program's history. Yep, if Roberson returns for his senior year and produces at or near the kind of results he has the past two years, he would supplant Chauncey Billups as the most valuable player in the history of the program while smashing the career rebounding record and probably several other marks.

If Roberson comes back, the Buffs will certainly be ranked among the top-25 in the nation to start the season, something that has happened only once before more than 40 years ago.

In some ways, there will be much less pressure on Roberson next season in Boulder. He won't have to spend the entire season thinking about turning pro. He won't have a choice in the matter.

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