Political scandals evolving transversal areas , public,private companies,corruption,bad political choices,misuse of public funds ,ecological crimes,heritages from Lula da Silva that some already come out to public , others still to come..and some on Dilmas. I don’t like to talk about politics to much , but in this case it’s impossible not to talk about it . Dilma doesn’t know what to do or how to do it , Joaquim Levy ( Ministry of Finance ) struggles for budget/growth/jobs, inflation and it seems he’s lonely in that mission.... because the majority of the congress is spending a lot as usual (like other countries in trouble). I believe that Joaquim Levy is the right person but not for now..

I analyzed this ETF in June... and holded (short) a position till July (one month). Compose by 67 companies , very exposed to Itau and Petrobras... but distinct situations. Itau as showed work .. management , risk control and that is reflected in the results. Petrobras is what everybody knows more debt than sales , scandals/corruption and not the best time for oil companies.

I think that the ETF got potential for a long, but not now... because if Dilma maintains in power till 2018 the probability of things get worse is very high , ETF its not so far from its "lowest" and maybe who knows, a new low is coming so right now maybe on "watch" .

The Bovespa is a little bit different, it’s still far from its lowest. Lot of companies (with too much debt) and all the reasons already said (corruption, inflation, dollar pressure )...Brazilian central bank monthly loss on its fx operations, so my own view is that Bovespa probability to drop more till next elections (2018?) is huge, and wait to the opportunity to rise again (when Dilma leaves ).Maybe we gonna see also more mergers and aquisitions like the Alpargatas recently.

Corticeira Amorim Sa - This is a free brief article , if you want more of this (or others) i have a complete insight , charts and data to support.Editar artigoPublicado em 29 de janeiro de 2016Primus Inter Pares - is a Latin phrase meaning first among equals......

For those who dont know what Corticeira Amorim Sa company,maybe you have seen Garret Macnamara surfing huge waves on Nazare with the Cork made surfboard (partner with Mercedes and others) , so by that you can see already the potencial and the versatality of the material.

Who?

Corticeira (COR ticket) is the world's largest producer of cork products and the most international of Portuguese companies. He is leading the entire industry, contributing as no other for the economy and for innovation in the cork row.

Why ?As you may see on chart of Corticeira , this is a Classic buy and hold.. the cause of the drop was because of the last subprime crisis since then it rises 70% per year (aprox.) but due to dividends and market liquidity i think this is a must in every portfolio.

PSI20 (less than 20..) Portuguese stock IndexYou can reach also to another conclusion...this stock doesnt get to much afected by the poor perform of internal market and the Portuguese Stock index market, See the chart , corticeira goes up and Psi20 goes down ----» due to banking scandals crisis , political issues , europe and world economic uncertain.

They have nice sales over the years based on some sectors , im talking about Real State/Construction , Wine sector , and you may also realize that the potencial risk is from these sectors

They keep an eye to the future,so they buy some core area companys to facilitate distribution outside Portugal and increase sales like TREFINOS, S.L. a leader in the manufacture and sale of champagne and sparkling wine cork stoppers in Catalonia (a really nice move). They also have invested time and money in R&D, the market acceptance over the years and the potencial of this material , the new milenial trends , the ecological issues makes this very important sector to the company.The debt is low and manageable, and cash flow is healthy.

When?

You can jump right now, the stock it’s at a good price (almost cheap) and if it drops like 2008 or close, after will likely rise again big time.You may also wait if you are neutral or market pessimist, if drop to 2008 or close it will be a bargain, but if not.. you may loose it at a nice price.It all comes to you risk profile

So next time you see a Cork product or with it , you´ll remind of this.

This is a free brief article , if you want more of this (or others) i have a complete insight , charts and data to support . Im also available for vacancies and/or Consultancy