Saturday, March 15, 2008

"Removing Bonds' shadow sheds light on a horribly run last place team"

That's one of the many nuggets contained in the 2008 Baseball Prospectus' analysis of the Giants, which goes into detail as to what happens with franchises when franchise players depart (they often are already declining and continue to do so; attendance also declines sharply). Here are some observations --

-- "In terms of their overall organizational strength, from their 25-man roster on down to their rookie-ball clubs, the Giants have quite possibly the weakest group of players in baseball."

-- "Ordinarily, we would advocate a standard three- to five-year rebuilding plan designed around trading what favorable veteran contracts the team has forprospects and writing off a couple of seasons butthe Giants do no really have any veteran contracts that can be considered assets and their organizational depth is so poor, particularly on the offensive side, that playing the kids could produce some truly embarrassing results."

-- (on Rich Aurilia) "Let's get this out of the way: the Giants are just lousy with veterans who would make fairly good reserves but whom they treat as regulars."

-- (on Dan Ortmeier) "Ortmeier is roughly analogous to Todd Linden if only Linden had never really hit at Triple A and had come up at a time when the Giants didn't really have to worry about a player's production in order to play him."

-- (on Nate Schierholtz) "So if Ortmeier is the post-Bonds version of Linden, Schierholtz is the new Lance Niekro....Tip for the Giants: aim that cloning ray at Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum not your failed outfield prospects."

-- (on Omar Vizquel) "The team re-signed him for his glove but he also counts toward their collection of old expensive players who can't hit."

-- (on Randy Winn) "Winn, Roberts and Rowand are all taking playing time from Lewis and Davis, inexpensive players who are broadly comparable, potentially better and tens of millions of dollars cheaper. The Giants have made decisions like that across the roster while feeding the idea that it was Barry Bonds's $16 million -- a bargain in both theoretical and real terms -- standing in the way of their plans. No organization has wasted more money on marginal upgrades. This is a diseased organization that needs a complete and thorough cleansing, from the owner's box on down."

-- (on Matt Cain) "The problem is that he might be one of the best five pitchers in baseball the next few years and still be saddled with 7-16 records."

-- (on Brad Hennessey) "The Giants have too many guys like Hennessey -- failed starters best suited for multi-inning work -- coming out of their pen and not enough fire-breathers."

-- (on Tim Lincecum) "He has big-leap potential and could very well be the best pitcher in the NL this year...and go 12-10."

-- (on Jonathan Sanchez) "The Giants still don't know what they want him to be and while making up their minds they've wasted two years of Sanchez's career. No one mishandling a million-dollar asset this badly should be allowed to keep their job."