MARKET ASSESSMENT MODELS FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

The growth rate of the United States' agricultural exports to its trading partners was predicted using some measures of each country's past macroeconomic conditions. The model which applies a five-year lag basis predicted better than that which utilizes a ten-year lag. Results show that the significant determinants of the growth rate of U.S. agricultural exports include the importing countries' GDP growth rate, agricultural self-sufficiency, population density, and distance from the United States.