Monday, April 30, 2018

Registrations grew a healthy 53% in March, to some 142,000 units, the second best result ever, at this pace, the current record (174,000 units, in December '17), is in danger to be broken next September, or even earlier, in June.

This positive start of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at 305,000 units (+59% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at 1.3% share, a new record, which makes the prospect of this year the global PEV market reaching two million units (and over 2% share) a realistic goal.

This month the new Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Model S and X were the headliners, with the Japanese hatchback deliveries now in full swing, registrations surged to over 11,000 units, not only a new record for the nameplate, but also only the second model to reach the five-digit area ever. With a five-digit long waiting list, expect registrations to continue around 10,000 units in the next few months.

Both Teslas also had their usual end-of-quarter-peak, with the Model S reaching 8,274 deliveries, allowing it to jump into #5, while the Model X delivered 7,115 units, the nameplate best performance in 6 months, placing it in #7. Unfortunately, despite delivering a record 3,820 units, the Model 3 couldn't hold on to a Top 10 place, dropping to #12, thus preventing the presence of 3 Teslas in the Top 10. Will we see that happen in April?

As for the remaining Top 10, the Toyota Prius PHEV climbed to Third Place, winning at the same time the Best Selling PHEV status from the hands of the BYD Song PHEV, this drop underlined the poor overall performance of the Chinese Top 10 models, with all three dropping positions.

The lower two places saw a close race between the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (4,226 units, best performance in two years), and the Renault Zoe (4,430 units, a new personal best), with both models ending separated by just 29 units, to the benefit of the Japanese SUV.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics increased significantly their lead (+4%) in March, now representing 60% of the total market, expect this score to be constantly improved throughout the year, maybe to levels above the 65% share of 2017.

Finally, looking at the Fast-Charging protocols race, the 43kW AC of the Renault Zoe has only 3% share, the Tesla SC standard has 10% of PEV sales, Chademo has 13% and now the juiciest pieces of information...

...There has been a lot of talk regarding the supremacy of CCS over the remaining fast-charging standards, and that we should ditch everything else, but the truth is that at 8% share of sales, it is not only behind Chademo, but also behind the proprietary Tesla SC standard. And that's before mentioning the elephant in the room, GB/T. The Chinese standard has 14% of all sales...Making it the Best Selling standard in 2018.

All hail the new leaders!...

Manufacturers: Tesla jumps to #1

March signaled significant changes, the most important being the rise to power from Tesla, thanks to a record shattering 19,209 deliveries, but it wasn't only the American manufacturer to present record performances, Nissan crossed for the first time the 10,000 units, Volkswagen broke its 27 months record(!), with over 8,000 deliveries, while Renault also posted a new record result, with 5,734 units, allowing it to climb to #9, and to underline The Alliance perfect score, Mitsubishi posted its best result (4,317 units) since 2015.

On the other hand, BAIC sank to Fifth Place, despite having seen its sales grow by 24% YoY, this one telling tale of the moment we are living, growth alone is not enough to be among the Best Sellers, you have to push boundaries almost on a monthly basis in order to stay on top.

Outside this ranking, the #11 Chevrolet missed a presence in the Top 10 by just 150 units, while Mitsubishi is digging itself from obscurity and is now #12, with 9,200 units.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese lost 2% share, to 36% of all deliveries, while Japan profited from the Leaf surge to jump to 14% share, that nevertheless were not enough to reach the podium, as Germany (20%) and the USA (15%) are still in the medals positions.

Thursday, April 26, 2018

The European passenger
plug-in market hit unprecedented levels last month, beating a two year old
record (34,000 units in December ’15), by registering over 40,000 registrations,
growing 41% regarding the same period last year, and pulling the Year-to-date
counting to 87,000 deliveries (+37%), allowing the 2018 market share to reach
2% (2,2% in March), and the good news do not end here, as BEVs (+44% YoY and
52% of PEV market) grew faster than PHEVs (+38%), thus reducing the
disadvantage it has over plug-in hybrids in the 2018 count (51% PHEV vs 49%
BEV). Will we see all-electrics surpass plug-in hybrids in April?

This historic result was the
result of a perfect sales storm, not only Renault decided to put all hands-on
deck and pull a record result for the Zoe, trying to end its waiting list, but
most importantly, this was the first full deliveries month of the new Nissan Leaf
and the result was…Earth-shattering. The 6,000-plus result is not only a new
monthly record for a BEV in Europe, but the second-best result ever in for a
plug-in car in the Old Continent, only behind the 6,485 units made by the
Outlander PHEV in December 2015, when an incentive change in the Netherlands
inflated all PHEV sales.

And remember, this was the
Leaf first full deliveries month…Talk about landing with a bang!

But we must mention a few more
important pieces for the Record Puzzle: Both Teslas delivered what they hadn’t
managed to do in previous months, with the Model S performing its best result
in 27(!) months, with other honorable mentions going to the BMW i3, that with
2,300 deliveries, had its best result in 18 months, the Mitsubishi Outlander
PHEV recorded 2,514 units, its best result in 2 years, while the VW Passat GTE
had its best result (1,482) since December ‘16, and the recent Kia Niro PHEV
broke for the first time the 1,000 units barrier, boding well for its upcoming
BEV version.

Interestingly, looking at
March Best Sellers, 6 out of the Top 7 are BEVs, which is telling on the
direction the plug-in market is taking in Europe…

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Nissan Leaf – Simply Amazing. The 2.0
version of the most popular plug-in in the world had its first full deliveries
month in Europe last March and by registering 6,053 units, the Nissan hatchback recorded the second best result
ever in Europe for a plug-in, and with the orders list at over 15,000 units,
expect the Leaf to remain at around 5,000 units in the coming months, limited
only by the Sunderland production capacity. But back to March, the main markets
were Norway (2,172 deliveries, new all-time record for a single model), UK
(1,500), France (719), Germany (346) and the Netherlands (299).

#2 Renault Zoe – The 4,248 deliveries in March meant a new record for the French
hatchback, as Renault is running to end the Zoe waiting list, now that LG has
more batteries to provide the French automaker. As for individual market
performances, the domestic market did the heavy work, by registering a record
2,245 units, with other positive numbers coming from Germany (523 units),
Norway (347), Portugal (161 units, new all-time record for a single model),
Austria (152) and Spain (150).

#3 Tesla Model S – Due to the automaker
focus on the production of the Model 3 earlier on, Tesla starved the Model S
deliveries in Europe, but then March came, and boatloads of S’s landed on this
side of The Pond, with deliveries up 26% YoY, to 2.791 units, the nameplate best result since 2015. It appears the
Model 3 reveal not only didn’t hurt sales, but actually helped it, as many
buyers preferred not to wait and buy now the older model, instead of waiting
for ages for the Model 3 to cross the Atlantic. Looking at individual
countries, besides Norway’s usual contribution (676 units), the Netherlands (588
deliveries, a new record) and Germany (304) were also heavy contributors, in a
generally positive month throughout the Continent for the Sports Sedan. Looking ahead, logic would say that deliveries should
start falling as the year advances and the Model 3 arrival gets closer, but the
Model S has surprised us before, so...

#4 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch sales remained
positive (+16%) in March, with 2,300
units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory going on full steam, do
not expect the Bavarian carmaker to be worried with its angry-puppy-faced EV sales
performance. Looking at individual countries, Norway is once again leading
sales (528 units), with Germany (459) following suit, and France also
presenting a strong result. Looking into the remaining months of 2018, expect
deliveries to remain stable, as demand does not seem to wane.

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Solid as a
rock, the Japanese SUV managed to secure another Top 5 presence in March, thanks
to 2,541 registrations, with sales even
growing 7% YoY. The Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of
space, AWD, range and affordability (40.000€), to make it popular in markets
like the UK (1,300 units), Norway (438) or Germany (153). Looking forward, the
Japanese SUV is expected to receive an update soon, so it can keep wearing its
crown as Europe’s Best Selling PHEV in the foreseeable future.

Record result for the Panamera PHEV in March

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the headline goes to the new Nissan Leaf, jumping four positions to Second,
and already endangering the Renault Zoe leadership, while both Teslas profited
from their usual end-of-quarter peak to climb in the ranking, but this time the
tide was higher than expected, with the Model S jumping 14(!) positions to #6,
while the Model X joined the Top 20, in #14.

The other
significant changes in the Top 20 were the BMW 530e climbing two positions to
#12, while two models had significant drops, with the Mini Countryman PHEV
stumbling 6 positions to #18, and the Porsche Panamera PHEV sliding down four
positions to #19. And this despite the fact the German Sports Sedan registered
766 deliveries, a new monthly record for any Porsche plug-in…

Outside the Top 20,
records were also abundant, like it was the case of the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV (494
units), Smart Forfour ED (592), or the Volvo S/V90 PHEV (615), with the Swedish
twins discreetly approaching the Top 20 status.

Looking at the manufacturers
ranking, last year winner BMW (16%, down 1%) is still in the lead, with the
runner-up Volkswagen (13%, down 3%), losing ground to the rising Renault (10%,
up 1%), and (most importantly) Nissan, that doubled its share, to 10%.

Considering the
April first indications also predict another smashing month from the Japanese
automaker, it won’t be surprising to see Nissan jump from Fourth to Second in
the next edition.

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

The PEV market is boiling hot in Romania, with the current 228 Plug-ins registered so far this year representing a nine-fold(!) jump regarding last year, with this market selling in just three months what it hadn't in the first nine months of 2017...

Because of this exponential growth, the PEV Share jumped to a record 0.8%, and it's not even higher, because the mainstream market is also growing fast (+28%).

Last year Best Seller BMW i3 started once again in the lead, in its bid to win a third consecutive Best Seller title, but this time it seems that the 2017 runner-up, the Renault Zoe, is running closer, having registered already 43 units, not far from the 49 delivered last year.

Smart is betting heavily in Romania, with its two models in Third and Fourth respectively, the brands best positioning anywhere.

In a market strongly where the top four best selling models are BEVs, all electric models are outselling PHEVs (63% vs 37%), while the best selling PHEVs are only #5, with 12 units.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW is headed for a third consecutive title, having a large 37% share of the market, while Smart and Renault are running for #2, with both having 19% share and 43 units, while Volvo is a distant Fourth Placed, with 7% share.

Looking at the Best Selling models, in March the Tesla Model S was the #1, with 146 units, the nameplate best result in two years, allowing it to jump five positions into #9 (Its sibling Model X also jumped to #15), while the BMW i3 registered 91 units, a new record for the hot hatch, pulling it to #8. And these were the good news for BEVs...In a sea of PHEVs.

Adding insult to injury, the #17 BMW 740e is outselling the Renault Zoe (#18) and Nissan Leaf (#19), the current two Best Selling PEVs in Europe...Strange, isn't it?

Elsewhere, BMW had two models breaking into the three digit area last month, with the X5 PHEV registering 131 units (Best result in 9 months) and the 530e doing 129 deliveries (A new personal best), with the SUV climbing to Third in the 2018 ranking, and the sedan jumping to #4.

The Porsche Panamera PHEV continues to impress, with 111 units in March, while the Audi Q7 e-Tron had its best result in 10 months, with 57 deliveries.

In the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW proofited from the general good performance from its lineup to increase the leadership lead, to 31% share (Up 6%), while Volvo (14%, down 1%) and Mercedes (13%, down 3%) are running for Silver, and Volkswagen is Fourth, with 10%.

Monday, April 23, 2018

The EV Market in Czech Republic is up a moderate 17%, with 207 units sold so far this year, with the PEV Share stable at 0.3%.

Looking at the models ranking, the four times Best Seller BMW i3 lost the leading position last month, because the VW e-Golf delivered 21 units in March, winning a precious advantage over the Bimmer's hot hatch.

But the (not so) surprising result of March was the new Nissan Leaf landing with 20 units, just one below the e-Golf, so it looks that the 2018 Best Seller trophy in this market will be a three horse race, so people, place your bets, because there's no clear favorite in this trio..

Elsewhere. good performances also for the Tesla Model S, #4 in March and YTD, making it a BEV Top 4, and also a worthy mention for the hot-selling Porsche Panamera PHEV, #7 with 7 deliveries.

In the brands ranking, an important development is happening, as BMW, having won every Manufacturers title since 2014, is now tied with Volkswagen, both with 26% share and 55 deliveries, will we see VW break BMW's domination? For the record, the only time BMW lost this award, it was in 2013, when Nissan won it, with 16 units...Over the whole year.

The last place of the podium is now in the hands of Nissan, with 12%, with Tesla following suit, with 10%..

Thursday, April 19, 2018

After the usual off-season (January and February),
March came and sales surged to 59,000 units, up 85% YoY, with the 2018 sales
doubling regarding the same period last year, to over 122,000 units.

Consequently, the 2018 PEV share surged to 1.8%, not
that far off from the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up
significantly as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3%
threshold.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented roughly 40%
of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that is sure to increase
during 2018, possibly even beating the 46% record of last year.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is
more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact
that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked
seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near
future, foreign brands are finally putting an effort, proof of that is that
overseas makers now have a record 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to
Tesla, 2% to BMW, and 1% to Cadillac(!), with the remaining manufacturers
sharing the final 1%.

In March, the main news was BYD stepping up
production, having its second-best month ever (13,100 units), only below the
16,000 units of last December. With a new Qin sedan and Tang SUV coming soon,
expect the Chinese carmaker to start posting 20,000-plus performances in the
second half of the year, securing another Manufacturers Title (Its 6th) in its
home market, while on the Global stage, it could be the only OEM playing in the
same league as Tesla, once the Californian brand finally steps out of the 9
circles of Production Hell.

Here’s March
Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After a disappointing February,
the EC-Series is back on track, having registered 7,818 units last month, up 117% YoY. Sure, it’s not the 16,000
registrations of last November, but the little EV continues being disruptive in
the Chinese market, winning 6 of the last 7 Monthly Best-Selling trophies. A trendy
design helps the EC-Series to be a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities,
where the 200 kms range are enough to run around the urban jungle.

#2 – BYD
Song PHEV: Build Your
Dreams (BYD) current star product had 4,685
registrations in March, the nameplate’s best result in the last 8 months. If
the 2018 Best Selling PHEV title seems to be destined to stay with it, one
questions if BYD’s “Model Y” can also reach the sales level of the BAIC
EC-Series. Consistency seems to be BYD’s forte,
so do not expect it to jump much beyond 5,000 units/month.

#3 – JAC iEV7S/E: JAC is one of the EV pioneers in
China, selling plug-ins since 2010, and now with its iEV Crossover, it’s back
at the game, registering 4.603
units last month. With a competitive price of USD 26,000 before incentives,
this is a vehicle targeted at trendy urbanites that for some reason can’t reach
a BYD Song or Roewe’s eRX5, getting in return a good-looking compact vehicle
(Kia Soul-sized), with just enough power and range (114 hp / 251 kms) to not to
make it look bad.

#4 – BYD e5: BYD’s Plain Jane electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered
3,798 units in March, a new record for
the nameplate. Offering 97% of the Qin specs (48 kWh battery, 300 kms range,
218 hp) in a less fancy suit, for a significantly lower price, the model is a
bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, as the 70,000 units sold so far mean
that it is the third bestselling PEV, behind the Qin and Tang models.

Outside the top
positions, that had no major surprises, there were several positive
performances below the podium, like the Hawtai xEV260 compact SUV posting its
first four-digit performance (1,350 units), allowing it to show up for the
first time on the Top 20, in…#20. Speaking of compact SUVs, the Roewe eRX5 PHEV
posted a year best performance, by registering 2,303 units.

Significant
changes on the ranking only happened below the Eighth place, but the BYD e5
jump from nowhere into #9 was nothing short of remarkable, and with the Sixth
spot not that far away, I wouldn’t rule out three BYD’s on the Top 6 soon.

There were was
another nameplate storming through the Top 20, the Tesla Model X returned to
the Top 20, in #15, recovering the Best Selling foreign nameplate status, ahead
of the BMW X1 PHEV, but despite being surpassed by the Tesla Sports-Minivan-SUV, the German SUV had
its best month so far, with 854 deliveries, allowing it to climb three
positions, into #16.

Looking at
the manufacturers ranking, BYD is back at the leader’s throne, having increased
its lead to 7% (24% vs 17%), over the runner-up BAIC, will the Beijing
automaker be able to step up the pace and recover ground?

In Third
Place we have a close race, with the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%) being closely
followed by JAC (10%), this tight duel does not have a clear favorite, but if I
had to bet, I would go for Roewe, has the Shanghai carmaker lineup is less
dependent from a single model performance.