Gillard unsurprised by Labor poll slump

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s personal satisfaction rating has plunged six points to a 13-month low of 26 per cent, while her dissatisfaction rating shot up eight points to 68 per cent in the latest Newspoll.
Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

“I don’t need a poll to tell me that last week the Labor Party had an appalling week,’’ she said.

“When we present to the Australian people self-indulgently talking about ourselves, there are consequences.

At risk ... On current polling even former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd could lose his seat.
Photo: Glenn Hunt

“I don’t need a poll, I don’t think any political observer, indeed, any community member, would need a poll to say that people looked at the conduct of the Labor Party last week and were just shaking their heads.’’

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According to Newspoll, the Coalition now holds a whopping 20 point lead over Labor in the primary vote, after Labor’s share of the primary vote fell four points to 30 per cent and the Coalition’s rose six points to 50 per cent.

The Coalition’s gain came at the expense of both Labor and the Greens, with the Greens’ share of the primary vote falling one point to 10 per cent.

On a two-party basis, the Coalition would deliver a crushing defeat to Labor at the next federal election, with the poll showing the opposition is now ahead of its rival 58 per cent to 42 per cent.

If that margin were to hold to the election, Labor would lose 35 seats and have only 37 MPs left in the House of Representatives, a result that would be worse than the defeat former Prime Minister Paul Keating led Labor to in 1996.

New Resources and Energy Minister Gary Gray likened the situation facing Ms Gillard to that faced by Labor in late 1992, when Mr Keating was up against Liberal leader John Hewson.

“What the Labor Party did was retreat into its own core values, produce its own policy framework and win in 1993.

“I am confident that the Prime Minister’s strength, values, her leadership and the policy program of the government is exactly that kind of insightful and robust policy program that I’m looking forward to campaigning on and for as we go into the election that is due on September the 14th," he said.

‘We can win from here’: Emerson

“No-one is pretending this poll is a good poll but we won’t dwell on polls," he told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.

“We can win from here but it’s obviously been made more difficult by the fact we have had divisions," he said, referring to last week’s failed leadership spill.

“We will be competitive at the next election because it is the Labor party that has the ideas for the future of Australia."

Publishing the poll result on Tuesday, The Australian noted that if the swing against Labor – measured at 8.1 per cent – was replicated at the September 14 election even former Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd
’s Queensland seat of Griffith could be at risk. Mr Rudd holds the seat with a margin of 8.5 per cent.

The newspaper noted that a swing in the order of 81. per cent could also cost a number of ministers their seats, including Treasurer
Wayne Swan
, Mr
Gray
, Trade Minister
Craig Emerson
, Defence Minister
Stephen Smith
and School Education Minister
Peter Garrett
.

Among other poll findings, Ms Gillard personal satisfaction rating plunged six points to a 13-month low of 26 per cent, while her dissatisfaction rating shot up eight points to 68 per cent. In contrast, Opposition Leader
Tony Abbott
’s personal approval rating is up three points to 39 per cent and his dissatisfaction rating five points lower at 50 per cent.

The devastating result for Ms Gillard and Labor also has Mr Abbott ahead of Ms Gillard as the preferred Prime Minister among poll respondents by a margin of 43 per cent to 35 per cent.

The Newspoll follows a weekend Galaxy poll that found more than 50 per cent of respondents identifying themselves as Labor voters believe Labor’s ongoing leadership struggle has tarnished the Office of the Prime Minister.