There's usually a lag between energy-sector capital spending and
oil prices, with prices leading. That means even if oil
prices defy most forecasts and rise sharply from current levels,
capex will likely still fall.

Goldman
Sachs

Energy giants are already expecting lower oil prices for some
time. This earnings season, oil giants including Chevron and
Exxon lowered their guidance for capex spending next year to
account for lower oil prices. BP talked about positioning for a
period of
weaker prices.

The second chart, which is literally depressing for the rest of
the market, is that because the energy sector makes up 30% of
capex spending on the S&P 500, it will weigh down the entire
index's spending.