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Re: Who will get Choo?

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Would love for three and four to come to pass.

As for one, if they can get a solid return for Philips, I'm all for it. Homer? Really Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see himsigning before testing the market. If not then I'd consider dealing him but it needs to be for a very strong return.

People here seem to be all for ditching Phillips. My biggest beef with this idea is that we have NOBODY to replace him defensively...heck, offensively either.

Homer...I really think people are going to be surprised by what he does. I think he really likes Price and the competitiveness of the rotation.

Re: Who will get Choo?

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

I'm not sure I follow you here...

While Choo does definitely appear to be out of our price range, I'm not sure I understand the "lack of effort" assertion.

-Boras is his agent, so there was no hope of an extension before he tested the open market
-As far as I know, he hasn't shut the door on a return to Cincinnati
-He hasn't signed anywhere yet
-Short of them publicly proclaiming they would beat anything offered, I'm not sure what effort they could have put in

My assertion concerning the lack of a serious effort (so far) made by this FO on Choo is buoyed on two things .....

- they tendered him an offer. A 1 yr contract, which was nothing more then a formality, that they knew was going nowhere. IMO, it doesn't matter that Boras is his agent or that other teams are going after him. You still make that serious effort, throw out your best deal, in an attempt to resign the guy. If you lose out, OK, but you gave it your best shot.

But they didn't. Now, yes, they may still attempt to do that, but I seriously doubt it based on my second point....

payroll constraints.

First off - I applaud Bob C, over the last few years, for spending the money and making that effort to build the core of this team. I have no qualms, though others may, with contracts such as Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, etc. Since he took over the payroll has risen from approximately $60M to $106M. That's one heck of an increase. But that's what you gotta do. He fulfilled his pledge to bring winning baseball back to Cincy and the fans.

But at the same time, reality has now set in that even though the team is winning they still haven't been able to reach that next level with the current team's construction, there are still critical pieces missing.

So now they are at that stage of "changes need to be made". But they've basically "hit a wall" due to the fact that they've stretched payroll a far as it can go and those guaranteed contracts. They really have no financial wiggle room. They'll obviously create some by not resigning Arroyo, possibly staying out of the Choo sweepstakes, but those are takeaways.

Sure, they have options for the rotation by possibly moving Chapman and inserting Cingrani (fingers crossed there).

But what about the offense? The way I see it, they went into this off-season needing a #2 and #4 hitter. Yet they've added to those "woes" by now having to look for a #1.

And there are rumors flying they may be trying to trade away one or two of those guaranteed contracts of core players (BP? Bailey?) in order to give them more financial wiggle room and effect those positive changes we need while keeping payroll within reason.

They got one heck of a huge job ahead of them this off-season for sure. And while there is still plenty of time obviously, they still are facing a tall order. And right now all we're seeing is subtractions. And until we, the fans, start seeing some productive additions, we have every reason to be highly skeptical.

Likes:

Re: Who will get Choo?

Originally Posted by GAC

My assertion concerning the lack of a serious effort (so far) made by this FO on Choo is buoyed on two things .....

- they tendered him an offer. A 1 yr contract, which was nothing more then a formality, that they knew was going nowhere. IMO, it doesn't matter that Boras is his agent or that other teams are going after him. You still make that serious effort, throw out your best deal, in an attempt to resign the guy. If you lose out, OK, but you gave it your best shot.

But they didn't. Now, yes, they may still attempt to do that, but I seriously doubt it based on my second point....

payroll constraints.

First off - I applaud Bob C, over the last few years, for spending the money and making that effort to build the core of this team. I have no qualms, though others may, with contracts such as Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, etc. Since he took over the payroll has risen from approximately $60M to $106M. That's one heck of an increase. But that's what you gotta do. He fulfilled his pledge to bring winning baseball back to Cincy and the fans.

But at the same time, reality has now set in that even though the team is winning they still haven't been able to reach that next level with the current team's construction, there are still critical pieces missing.

So now they are at that stage of "changes need to be made". But they've basically "hit a wall" due to the fact that they've stretched payroll a far as it can go and those guaranteed contracts. They really have no financial wiggle room. They'll obviously create some by not resigning Arroyo, possibly staying out of the Choo sweepstakes, but those are takeaways.

Sure, they have options for the rotation by possibly moving Chapman and inserting Cingrani (fingers crossed there).

But what about the offense? The way I see it, they went into this off-season needing a #2 and #4 hitter. Yet they've added to those "woes" by now having to look for a #1.

And there are rumors flying they may be trying to trade away one or two of those guaranteed contracts of core players (BP? Bailey?) in order to give them more financial wiggle room and effect those positive changes we need while keeping payroll within reason.

They got one heck of a huge job ahead of them this off-season for sure. And while there is still plenty of time obviously, they still are facing a tall order. And right now all we're seeing is subtractions. And until we, the fans, start seeing some productive additions, we have every reason to be highly skeptical.

The Reds made him the offer necessary to receive draft pick compensation for him should he sign elsewhere once they realized there would be no extension before the deadline. This does not mean offers were not made before the deadline. The Yankees did the same thing with Cano. Does that mean they aren't making a serious effort to sign him?

While the rest of your post has validity, it does not indicate to me that there is a "lack of serious effort" to re-sign Choo.

I'm not in disagreement with you that this is going to be a tumultuous offseason, I just don't follow the "lack of effort for Choo" logic.

Likes:

Re: Who will get Choo?

Originally Posted by GAC

My assertion concerning the lack of a serious effort (so far) made by this FO on Choo is buoyed on two things .....

- they tendered him an offer. A 1 yr contract, which was nothing more then a formality, that they knew was going nowhere. IMO, it doesn't matter that Boras is his agent or that other teams are going after him. You still make that serious effort, throw out your best deal, in an attempt to resign the guy. If you lose out, OK, but you gave it your best shot.

Two questions- what would the Reds gain if they came out and said "we have offered Shin-Soo Choo a contract for 5 years and 85 million dollars (the most recent projection I have read) and it is the best we can do no matter what." They risk destroying their own chances to re-sign the player or negotiate at all. Leverage is brought to a minimum, even in terms of creative contract construction, like deferred money. Furthermore, contracts often have a lot more going on in them than just years and money, so focusing on 80% of the deal as the driver (which it may be) while ignoring the 20% that would be escalators, incentives, bonuses, options, perks, deferred money, and whatever else, ignores the fact that this is a real business with real business discussions and not MLB 2K14.

And question number 2- how do you know that they haven't done any preliminary contract discussion with Choo and Boras in private? No other arbitration eligible player has publicly received a contract, so do you have the same complaint of every other team that had a top-tier free agent this year?

I agree with The Operator as well- we don't have any idea of what the Reds' finances are. So hand-wringing about the Reds being financially hamstrung because of a bad Broxton contract or whatever else isn't really a starting point for discussion of player acquisition.

Re: Who will get Choo?

If Bowden is correct and Choo gets around $85 million over five years, the Reds would probably pay that much.

They would have to rid themselves of one big contract, probably Phillips. But $17 per year for five years for Choo would probably be feasible.

I'm guessing that's the limit though. Guessing that's the lowest Choo would take and the highest the Reds would pay.

Choo remains an ideal signing since the Reds don't lose a draft pick and since he can play CF now and move over to left for BH.

Only issue with Choo is that it still leaves the Reds without the big righty slugger. Maybe Ludwick manages for one more year, if healthy, and Reds try to get the righty bat next off-season.

Or maybe Devin finally steps up with some regular playing time. He was considered by many to be a middle of the order bat for quite a while there. Some guys really have a hard time adjusting to playing sporadically. It could be as simple as that.

As for Phillips....forget the contract. Ignore the money. We have no replacement for him. Anybody we bring in to replicate his production will cost a similar amount which means any cost savings is mostly nullified.

24.5 million. Some is going to raises but most importantly we have ZERO clue what Bob is willing to do with the payroll. He's shown a big willingness to spend in order to win. It won't surprise me at all if he ups the payroll in order to retain Choo.

Re: Who will get Choo?

Why are some of you so sure The Reds are out of money and have to either maintain status quo or even cut payroll?

All we heard for months and months back in 2011 was that Joey Votto was as good as gone but they found a way to sign him and they also shelled out the money to sign BP long-term too.

This team isn't owned by Carl Lindner anymore.

The reason is that the media assumes virtually every year that the Reds are out of money. Local media and national media.

If you look at the predictions around the web for free agent landing spots, the Reds are barely mentioned. Local guys always say Reds won't be a player for free agents.

This year Jocketty said a QO for Bailey would hurt the budget. All that means to me is that $14 for one player this year is a very large salary. It is, and would impact any team's budget.

My own guess is that the main problem is that several key Reds are up for renewals soon. In addition to Choo, there's Latos, Bailey. Chapman soon after. There may be a need to sign Bruce again soon. So the Reds have to watch the overall salary structure and make some tough decisions. Few teams can sign everybody long term.

Re: Who will get Choo?

Why are some of you so sure The Reds are out of money and have to either maintain status quo or even cut payroll?

All we heard for months and months back in 2011 was that Joey Votto was as good as gone but they found a way to sign him and they also shelled out the money to sign BP long-term too.

This team isn't owned by Carl Lindner anymore.

It's really not the money that concerns me. If the reds have it, then spend it, but spend it wisely. Giving that kind of payday to player who has just come off of a career year during an age range in his career where regressions in production usually occur may not be money well spent in the long run. The reds IMO need to find a way to grab some solid major league players and maybe one upper level prospect to "hold the fort down" for the next two years while our better prospects in the mid to low minors mature. There's no doubt in my mind choo would be a great player for the next 2 or so years, but after that a mid 30s reduction in production will probably occur and he will be blocking, with a heavy contract, one of our better outfield prospects. IMO the best thing the reds could do is let choo walk, collect the pick and sign a couple veteran free agents to shorter deals and make a trade or two.

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