Santorum's Expectations

Colby ItkowitzCall Washington Bureau

Ahead of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, the definition of success means something entirely different for each candidate.

Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum has already tamped down his expectations for New Hampshire, saying Monday another second place finish would be “a dream come true.” For Santorum, trailing Jon Huntsman or even Ron Paul would not be the end of his run; the voters they are targeting are not the same one’s Santorum wants.

For Santorum, what matters most is beating Newt Gingrich. Both men are vying to be the conservative voter’s alternative to Mitt Romney.

Santorum's Iowa momentum didn't yield quite as much traction as his campaign might have hoped. Most polls show him battling Gingrich for the fourth place finish. However, his sudden fame has garnered him national propulsion - Gallup's tracking poll has Santorum in second nationally with 18 percent.

If Santorum can beat Gingrich with a solid showing in New Hampshire, he arrives in South Carolina the strongest of the conservative candidates (including over Rick Perry who came in fifth in Iowa and isn’t even competing in New Hampshire). If not, he’ll have to fight for attention among conservatives who might be less willing to coalesce around his candidacy.

Visiting South Carolina on Sunday, Santorum told voters there: "Of the three early states, we thought this was our best chance to win."

Yet Santorum's success will hinge on the larger story coming out of Tuesday's results: Romney's win.

The former Massachusetts governor is all but certainly going to take the crown, but his performance will not be measured just by coming in first, but by how much. If the other candidates can shave points from Team Romney, he’ll be viewed as an unstable frontrunner. If Romney appears vulnerable going into South Carolina, his foes may have an opportunity to surpass him there.