Jobless rate hits 11.2% in California

More than 2 million listed as out of work

In March, San Diego construction firms shed 800 workers; factories lost 600; retail, 200; transportation and warehousing, 200; and credit services, 100. The job losses were offset by hiring of 1,100 new restaurant workers – after several months of layoffs – and 1,100 state, county and private educators.

After totaling job gains and losses in all industries, there was a net loss of 300 payroll workers. But because of job losses among independent workers and the addition of new entrants into the work force, the estimated number of unemployed rose by 7,100, accounting for the leap in the jobless rate.

“If I hadn't seen February's figures, this would have been totally shocking, but right now it's just more of the same – a general decline in employment,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego.

He said local unemployment could get as high as 11 percent to 12 percent before it declines.

From March 2008 to March 2009, the county lost 46,600 payroll jobs. That is greater than the entire job loss in the early 1990s, which was spread out over three years, Gin noted. The 1990s job losses came after the closure of local defense factories after the end of the Cold War.

Gin said he was most surprised by the job loss in manufacturing, which has lost 6,600 workers in the past year.

“Over the past year, we've gotten used to job losses in construction and real estate, but manufacturing has shocked me,” he said. “We've been losing manufacturing jobs over the past decade, but usually at a rate of only 1,000 or 2,000 a year. This is the biggest drop we've seen during that period.”

Like Levy, Gin expects that the growth of the unemployment rate will ease with the help of the federal stimulus programs.

“The stimulus might not reverse things, but at a minimum it will slow the rate of deterioration,” he said.
Dean Calbreath: (619) 293-1891;
dean.calbreath@uniontrib.com