North Carolina Amendment One: Update on polling and fundraising

RALEIGH, N.C. — With one week until Election Day and early voting well underway, I wanted to take a look at the numbers on Amendment One, the North Carolina ballot measure that would limit legal recognition of unions to one man and one woman.

The key pivot point in PPP’s data is public understanding of the amendment. Among the 27% of voters who think Amendment One only bans gay marriage, the measure is favored by a whopping 72% to 27%; for the 40% of voters who know that the amendment would also ban civil unions, as many legal experts have said, the amendment is failing, 60% to 38%.

The majority of older voters (60% for/36% against) and voters in eastern North Carolina (64% for/32% against) are in favor of Amendment One, while young voters (33% for/59% against) are opposed.

When we traveled to North Carolina two weeks ago, Jen Jones, communications director for Equality North Carolina — which opposes the amendment — said she and her volunteers would be engaged in “education and persuasion” all the way through election day. That’s a tough road to victory. But it seems to be the only one anti-Amendment One forces have at their disposal.

Additionally, fundraising information was reported both for Protect All NC Families (anti-Amendment One) and Vote for Marriage NC (pro-Amendment One). It appears, based on these numbers, that direct donations to the two groups are running roughly even.

As a point of clarification, in a Seattle Timesarticle last week, I reported that pro-Amendment One forces had a 6-to-1 funding advantage over opponents. Those numbers include a variety of funding sources, including direct dollars raised, in-kind donations by allied organizations, and engagement by aligned organizations (such as churches or university student groups).