So obviously, let’s look at the Thunder. For this week, Oklahoma City’s playoff chances improve if on Wednesday the Thunder beats Denver (obviously), the Kings beat the Rockets, the Clippers beat the Suns and the Pacers beat the Blazers. If all that were to happen, OKC’s playoff odds would jump from 98.1 percent to 99.5. Clearly that could drop down or bump up again the following night, but it’s a cool way to follow the season.

It also has the spiffy chart that calculates based on “What If”. For instance, what if OKC goes 14-10 the rest of the way and finishes with 49 wins. That would give the Thunder a 100 percent chance of being in the playoffs. But what if OKC slides and goes 9-15 to finish. That would give the Thunder just a 66 percent chance at the postseason. There’s actually a 33 percent difference (99 to 66) between OKC finishing 12-12 and 9-15.

Plus, it’ll tell you what OKC’s potential seeding would be if it achieved that record to finish. 24-0 to finish? The Thunder had a 45 percent chance at the top seed in the West and a 55 percent chance at the second seed. A more realistic finish of 15-9 to wind up with 50 wins? 16 percent to finish fourth, 44 percent to be in fifth, 31 sixth and five percent in seventh. Observe the chart:

One thing I just really realized today is that there are just 24 games left for OKC. And right now, the Thunder holds a 5.5 game advantage over Houston and NOLA, the two teams closest to the playoffs on the outside looking in. Things are looking good right now. As long as OKC doesn’t finish 4-20, that is.

@f5alconi continued my analysis and added road vs home games, which all but eliminates the hornets, as they have only a 11-20 road record, and would have to beat the spurs,suns, thunder, utah, memphis and houston on the road.

memphis doesnt fair much better with having to beat hornets, boston, houston, Milwaukee, spurs and thunder on the road.

So houston is the only team really competing for a spot at this point, the others are just waiting to be eliminated.

it also looks from that site that 44 wins will be the current magic number, so we just need to win 9 more games.

thunder tim :I hope the guys don’t find that site and start day dreaming instead of playing ball.I hope they stay locked in and demolish the kings tonight.

One of the good things about our squad is how competitive they are. KD talked about how hard it was to lose so much his first two years. Now that he's winning, I don't see him slowing down at all. He seems to have the kind of fire that will propel him to multiple championships without any let down or satisfaction.

Chad Ford continued his love affair with the idea of Bosh going to the Thunder this summmer.. I don't know how down I am with the idea of Bosh/Durant/Westbrook taking up basically the entire salary cap in a couple years(close to 50 million) And then having us have to fill out the rest of the roster while preferably keeping our young talent (Harden, Green, Ibaka) all while staying under the luxury tax which will likely be less than 70 million.. I just dont think it is in the cards for us.. I am therefore officially appointing myself head of the "trade for Biedrins" campaign this summer.. :)

@falcon - yea, and earlier in the year, everyone (myself included) expected us to be in that huddle - fighting, scratching, clawing for our lives to make it into that 8th spot. Nice to be in a more comfy position.

For the rockets to make the playoffs at a 2/3 chance they cant lose more then 7 games. they still play denver, lakers, boston twice. Assuming they lose those games, they cant lose more then 3 of the following, thunder,spurs,suns, utah, new orleans, memphis twice, and win all games against kings (twice),wolves, pistons, wizards(twice), nets, knicks, bulls, clippers, bobcats. Thats a tall order to happen.

For the hornets to make the playoffs at 60% chance they cant lose more then 6 games. they have 2 games against denver, lakers, dallas, cleveland, thats 5 losses right there, that means they can only drop 1 game against houston, utah(2x), memphis(2x), portland,phoenix, thunder, spurs. Win all games against warriors(2x) clippers, wizards, nets, bobcats, wolves.That is almost an impossible task.

Memphis also needs to only have 6 losses to make the playoffs.Denver(2x) dallas(2x) orlando, boston gives them 6 losses, so they need to sweep everybody else including thunder, houston (2x), hornets (2x), spurs (2x)

So based on remaining schedules the rockets are the only team with any real chance of getting in the playoffs. With tiebreakers for the playoff spots only houston beats us, so if we win 11 games we are almost certainly in, barring huge upsets by memphis or new orleans.

memphis could be all but eliminated by the end of the week if they lose to the hornets and spurs, same with the hornets if they lose to memphis and spurs. If the hornets win we could push them far back enough to miss next wed, and memphis could survive til the 17th if they win against the hornets.

really there are 8 we had better wins left(2 kings, nets, 76ers, clippers, pacers, warriors and wolves), so that should be the minimum we get. Anything less then that is a disappointing end to the season.

there are 2 should wins, raptors, bobcats.

3 increase distance against teams trying to get in (hornets, memphis, rockets)

4 division games(excluding denver, and wolves which im counting in different groups,)

5 games against division leaders (2 denver, boston,lakers, dallas)

2 games against other playoff teams (suns, spurs)

So if we get the 8 we had betters and win 1 game out of each other group we will have 48 wins and go 13-11. That in my mind is somewhat realistic. however we can probably heavily increase our odds if we beat houston, hornets and memphis in our head to head games against them.

That is a detailed site. These days a lot of advanced stuff is getting done.

One of Houston, New Orleans or Memphis will need to go at least .667 to cause trouble and right now it would most likely be trouble for Portland. And that .667 needed will fairly quickly become .750 unless one of the playoff seeds slip off a decent pace.