Alex Len jumps to No. 1 as Nerlens Noel slips

Call your local GM and you’re likely to get something in the way of a shoulder shrug. Ask players and they—as they are wont to proclaim—will say they’re clueless. Even agents, who usually do a good job of at least pretending to know what’s going on, are puzzled with confusion.

With that caveat, we’re presenting an updated version of the mock draft. Go gentle:

1. Cleveland. Alex Len, C, Maryland. Unless the Cavaliers have sent a massive smokescreen over the NBA, they’re probably not going to pick Nerlens Noel here. If that’s the case, the Cavs are looking at Len, Otto Porter or Ben McLemore, with Len the favorite.

2. Orlando. Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana. Still convinced that Magic won’t be making this pick, and that we’ll see a trade at No. 2. Oladipo is very much in play either way, and might be the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft.

3. Washington. Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown. Could the Wizards really pass on Noel? The word is that they’ve locked in on Porter if he is there, and he makes sense as a young small forward to put with Bradley Beal and John Wall.

4. Charlotte. Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Kentucky. If Noel does fall from the top spot, he would not get past the Bobcats, who need some serious frontcourt help. If Noel is gone here, Anthony Bennett is the likely pick.

5. Phoenix. Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas. McLemore is another potential No. 1 pick who could have trouble finding a home. He could go No. 2, but momentum is behind Oladipo. The Suns would be quite pleased to grab McLemore here.

6. New Orleans. Trey Burke, PG, Michigan. The Pelicans are insisting they’re not giving up on Austin Rivers, and indeed, that may be so. But they certainly see him as more of a combo guard off the bench than as a starter at the point. That could be Burke.

7. Sacramento. Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh. It could be a stretch for the Kings to go this high for Adams, but they want a center to allow DeMarcus Cousins to play power forward, and some consider Adams the best option at this point. The Kings could trade down, but trading down is easier said than done.

8. Detroit. Anthony Bennett, SF/PF, UNLV. In what is becoming an annual tradition, the Pistons are primed to swipe a top-tier talent with a second-tier pick. Bennett is a tweener, but the Pistons will have opportunities for him to play both at small forward and power forward.

9. Minnesota. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia. This is a tough one. The Timberwolves need a shooting guard, and they love Victor Oladipo. If they don’t trade up for him, Caldwell-Pope could be their man. But they like Sergey Karasev, too.

10. Portland. Sergey Karasev, SG, Russia. Karasev is emblematic of this draft. He could go in the Top 10. He could go in the high 20s. One thing for sure, though, is that he can shoot, and the Blazers need as much help spreading the floor as they can get. But would they pass on C.J. McCollum here for a pure shooting guard?

11. Philadelphia. Cody Zeller, C/PF, Indiana. The Sixers are likely to snap up the best available big man, whether that is Adams, Zeller or Brazilian Lucas Nogueira. Zeller’s all-around game and athleticism will make him a good fit with the athletic young Sixers.

12. Oklahoma City (from Houston via Toronto). C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh. The Thunder have holes to fill in terms of frontcourt depth, but they usually take the best-available approach. McCollum, Michael Carter-Williams and Shabazz Muhammad would all be on that list.

13. Dallas. Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil. Nogueira is a high-motor big man who can rebound and defend. The obvious comparison (based on hair) is to countryman Anderson Varejao. It’s also an accurate comparison.

14. Utah. Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse. This a dream scenario for the Jazz, who are eager for a point guard. If Carter-Williams, a playmaker and outstanding defender at 6-6, could fall to them, they’d have a good complement to Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors inside.

15. Milwaukee. Shabazz Muhammad, G/F, UCLA. Muhammad is all over the place, potentially going as high as No. 7 to Sacramento or as low as 16 to Boston. Potentially losing Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick, a scorer like Muhammad works for the Bucks.

16. Boston. Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany. Schroeder compares himself to Rajon Rondo, in that he is a lanky playmaker who can defend. The Celtics are rumored to have promised him their pick if he was on the board. So now they’re fulfilling that promise.

17. Atlanta. Rudy Gobert, C, France. Gobert is big, long and raw as a blue steak. But he has plenty of potential, and the Hawks—if they don’t package these picks to move up—have room to take a chance on him.

18. Atlanta (from Brooklyn via Houston). Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State. The Hawks have had Franklin in twice, and though he has a badly sprained ankle, he’s made enough of an impression to warrant a pick on him. He is a very athletic wing who can score in bunches.

19. Cleveland (from LA Lakers). Giannis Adetokunbo, SF, Greece. The Cavs could move this pick, but if they don’t, look for them to go Euro with a player they can stash overseas. Adetokunbo is a gamble—he needs a few years before he is close to ready—but he is a 6-8 wing with good handles.

20. Chicago. Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville. The Bulls would like to get hold of Franklin at this spot, but they could also go big. Dieng made a strong impression during the NCAA tournament, and has done well in workouts.

21. Utah (from Golden State). Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga. Olynyk could yet be a lottery pick, but concerns about his strength and defense are weighing him down. The Jazz will need frontcourt depth if both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap leave, so Olynyk makes sense.

22. Brooklyn. Mason Plumlee, PF, Duke. The Nets won’t necessarily draft based on need, but they badly need depth in the frontcourt. Plumlee is an athletic, talented power forward who could contribute right away.

23. Indiana. Shane Larkin, PG, Miami. This is a steep drop for Larkin, who could easily be a late lottery pick. But if he isn’t this would be an ideal situation for him. The Pacers badly need a bench, and Larkin would get playing time on a good team.

24. New York. Glen Rice Jr., SG, D-League. The Knicks need production out of this pick, and no one has shown he can produce at a pro level quite like Rice. Yes, he was booted from Georgia Tech last year, but the way he played in the D-League this year makes him a good gamble.

25. LA Clippers. Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan. Hardaway is a solid scorer, deft at scoring off screens and cuts. He will be considered as high as No. 16 to Boston. The Clippers are also considering a slew of point guards with their picks.

26. Minnesota (from Memphis). Mike Muscala, C, Bucknell. The Timberwolves have spoken highly of Minnesota’s native son, but whether they will follow through and grab him at this spot remains to be seen. We’re going to say yes.

27. Denver. Reggie Bullock, SF, North Carolina. The Nuggets are considering point guards here, too, but Bullock had a good workout with the team and is the kind of athletic young wing that Denver seems to stockpile.

28. San Antonio. Brandon Paul, SG, Illinois. Paul’s stock got a boost from the play of Spurs guard Danny Green in the NBA Finals, because Green is one guy to whom Paul has been compared. So perhaps Green’s current team takes a chance on him.

29. Oklahoma City. Allen Crabbe, SG, California. Crabbe could be a steal. He is a knockdown shooter who could improve at the next level, when he isn’t the focus of opposing defenses. He averaged 18.4 points and was Pac 10 Player of the Year last season.

30. Phoenix (from Miami via Lakers). Tony Snell, G/F, New Mexico. Snell is a solid wing who can play either the 2 or the 3. The Suns need to go with the best talent they can get with this pick, regardless of position, and in this case, it’d be Snell.