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BA Chat

A few interesting parts of the chat:

Frank (Chicago): Is Amir Garrett simply a lottery ticket, in your opinion? What are his best attributes? Future SP or RP?
J.J. Cooper: Sure he's a lottery ticket, but it's a lottery ticket for a $200 million Powerball, not some $3 scratcher. It's too soon to really say whether he ends up as a starter or a reliever, but it's a very high ceiling arm. For the Reds, this gamble comes down to whether Garrett has a long-term career in basketball or not. If Garrett, who is averaging 7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game for St. John's as a sophomore eventually finds he's not going to be an NBA star, then the Reds get an outstanding arm with great athleticism. For now, Garrett is getting just enough innings to make some modest strides. But with no spring training or instructs because of school, he won't make any major steps forward as long as he's a two-sport guy.

David (Clifton): Any catching prospects in the system other than Barnhart?
J.J. Cooper: No one that right now projects to be a big leaguer. Brandon Dailey is a name to watch if you're looking for a sleeper.

DB (Clifton, VA): Sleepers in last years draft the 1st 10 rounds. Jackson Stephen? Jose Ortiz?
J.J. Cooper: I take it you mean after the top 10 rounds because both those guys are post 10th rounders. To hedge my bets on whether you mean top 10 or post 10, I'll pick 10th rounder Jeremy Kivel. He has excellent stuff, but like Amir Garrett, he's a lottery ticket as he's already had surgery on both knees

Terry M (Hillsboro Ohio): What happened to Jonathan Perez last year ?
J.J. Cooper: Banged up and the Reds were very cautious with him from what I heard. He's likely to be in the AZL next year.

Dave (VA): With a prospect (Reynoso) ranked 8th that will be a 20 year old at Billings and is many years away does that mean that you don't think much over their other OF prospects (LaMarre, Rodriquez, Waldrop, Gelalich)?
J.J. Cooper: No guarantee he doesn't make it to Dayton in 2013, as the writeup points out. Compared to the other guys, Reynoso has more of a chance to be a big league regular. As I've said previously in this chat, the rankings from No. 5 to No. 20 or so on this list don't have a lot of separation. When I started working on my Reds Top 30 this year, I had Reynoso No. 30, which seemed a reasonable spot for a young guy who had a very solid season in the AZL. But as I made my calls, I kept talking to sources inside and out of the organization who were clearly higher on him than that. So I started bumping him up the list. By the time I got around to writing the list, it was clear that scouts from other teams see much more of a chance for Reynoso to be a big league regular than any of the other guys you just listed. Heck, I had scouts who told me they like him better than Jesse Winker. But yes, the rest of the guys all either have significant questions about their hitting ability/makeup (Rodriguez) or project to likely be role players at the big league level. Maybe that sells Waldrop or Gelalich short, but that's the general consensus. Reynoso if it all comes together could be an impact big league regular, which in for the rankings here put him ahead of the other guys even if he has higher risk.

Re: BA Chat

Originally Posted by New Fever

David (Clifton): Any catching prospects in the system other than Barnhart?
J.J. Cooper: No one that right now projects to be a big leaguer. Brandon Dailey is a name to watch if you're looking for a sleeper.

Wait a minute. Is there confusion here, or is Brandon Dailey working out as a catcher?

I'm not too worried about Travieso. He was just getting his feet wet and it sounds like they were tinkering with his mechanics down there. I doubt he was cutting it loose all that often, if at all. And Aristides Aquino is my new favorite prospect just based on name alone.

Wow, coupled with their take on Gelalich, they are clearly VERY down on the Reds' 2012 draft. I hope this year proves them wrong, but I'm not necessarily holding my breath (although I do think they've underrated Winker).

Re: BA Chat

they are clearly VERY down on the Reds' 2012 draft. I hope this year proves them wrong, but I'm not necessarily holding my breath (although I do think they've underrated Winker).
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I'm not sure I'd go that far. I think it's more likely that prospect watchers among Reds fans have kind of ignored some mediocre to poor performances out of the chute. BA really likes Winker's bat -- they simply point out he's not a good runner/great athlete. And, if Winker becomes a legit middle of the order hitter, the 2012 draft is a success, IMO.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: BA Chat

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I'm not sure I'd go that far. I think it's more likely that prospect watchers among Reds fans have kind of ignored some mediocre to poor performances out of the chute. BA really likes Winker's bat -- they simply point out he's not a good runner/great athlete. And, if Winker becomes a legit middle of the order hitter, the 2012 draft is a success, IMO.

True but even with Winker, they dont see him as a Top 200 prospect and claim there are scouts that prefer Reynoso to Winker and think the former has a better shot at becoming a big league regular than Winker.

I like Winker and agree that if he becomes a middle of the order bat, this draft was fairly successful. However, I'm just noting that BA has some harsh words and observations for the 4 guys the Reds drafted in the top 100.

Re: BA Chat

I'm just noting that BA has some harsh words and observations for the 4 guys the Reds drafted in the top 100.

I know. I think what one person hears as "harsh" another hears as "realistic" or "sobering." There tends to be some "prospect intoxication" after a draft, and I feel it has lasted a long time in some cases, even as players struggled on the field (Rahier, Rosa, Travieso). Which is not to say these players can't turn it around and become true top prospects -- and BA acknowledges that.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: BA Chat

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I know. I think what one person hears as "harsh" another hears as "realistic" or "sobering." There tends to be some "prospect intoxication" after a draft, and I feel it has lasted a long time in some cases, even as players struggled on the field (Rahier, Rosa, Travieso). Which is not to say these players can't turn it around and become true top prospects -- and BA acknowledges that.

Agreed, but the thing is with the Reds, there has been good reason for the "intoxication" in the past:

Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Mike Leake, Billy Hamilton, Brad Boxberger, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Robert Stephenson are all guys that were taken in the top 100 in years past, and proved (usually quickly) that they were taken with good reason.

It is both sobering and realistic to realize that's not going to happen every year, although it is a bit harsh/abrupt for it to come to a dead stop with the Reds through 4 guys taken all in the same year.

Re: BA Chat

t is both sobering and realistic to realize that's not going to happen every year, although it is a bit harsh/abrupt for it to come to a dead stop with the Reds through 4 guys taken all in the same year.

I wouldn't say all 4. I think Winker may be another bullseye, and I don't think BA has completely discounted that. After all, Cooper says his ceiling is as a 3 hole hitter on a contender. That's high praise.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: BA Chat

Originally Posted by Benihana

Agreed, but the thing is with the Reds, there has been good reason for the "intoxication" in the past:

Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Mike Leake, Billy Hamilton, Brad Boxberger, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Robert Stephenson are all guys that were taken in the top 100 in years past, and proved (usually quickly) that they were taken with good reason.

It is both sobering and realistic to realize that's not going to happen every year, although it is a bit harsh/abrupt for it to come to a dead stop with the Reds through 4 guys taken all in the same year.

Not all of those guys were Top 100 guys the year they were drafted. Let's see what Winker and Travieso (and Rahier/Gelalich) do in their first year after the draft before getting into that. Specifically with Winker and Travieso, would you be surprised in the slightest if both of those guys are in the Top 100 next year given their scouting reports? I know I sure wouldn't.

Re: BA Chat

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not all of those guys were Top 100 guys the year they were drafted. Let's see what Winker and Travieso (and Rahier/Gelalich) do in their first year after the draft before getting into that. Specifically with Winker and Travieso, would you be surprised in the slightest if both of those guys are in the Top 100 next year given their scouting reports? I know I sure wouldn't.

I said they were taken in the top 100 picks, not necessarily top 100 prospects.

They all showed good promise within a year or two of being drafted (with the possible exception of Mez/Hamilton) enough that they'd all likely make a Top 200 prospects list.

And I agree, I'd definitely have Winker in the top 200. Travieso I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not expecting him to be in the Top 100 in the next 6-12 months. Rahier and Gelalich have a lot to prove if they are going to be there. They'd have to have a Mez-like resurgence to make the Top 100 next year. My overall point is to go 0-for-4 (with Top 100 picks) in the BA Top 200 9 months after the draft indicates that BA doesn't think very highly of this draft crop, at least certainly at the moment.

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