Assad's response to Western attack could rely on proxies

Richard Spencer

The Syrian military has the capacity to hit US and British bases in the region using its arsenal of Scud B missiles, but analysts believe President Bashar al-Assad's regime is more likely to respond indirectly to any Western strike.

This could entail staging attacks on neighbouring US allies such as Turkey and Jordan, or even action by groups supported by Syria's key ally and regional power, Iran.

Syrian rebels with UN inspectors in Zamalka, east of Damascus. US officials say they expect the inspectors to leave Syria on Saturday. Photo: AP

''They [the Syrian regime] don't want a new front, a new war,'' said Joshua Landis, an academic with good contacts in Dr Assad's ruling elite. ''A third-party assassination, or a car bomb or two, that is much more likely.''

Targets for a Syrian reprisal could include:

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The most obvious would be the US airbase at Incirlik, in south-eastern Turkey, or RAF Akrotiri, part of the British military base in Cyprus. Both are within the 300-kilometre range of the Syrian military's Scud B missiles. These could be fitted with chemical weapons.

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However, targeting military bases would risk a Western decision to ''finish off the job'' and launch a full-scale attack.

Targeting Israel

Dr Assad could follow the example during the First Gulf War of Saddam Hussein, who launched Scud missiles at Tel Aviv.

The Israeli cabinet authorised a partial call-up of reservists in Israel's north on Wednesday. Its military said it was deploying its missile shield systems, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there was ''no reason for a change to normal routines''.

Syria's rebels or civilians

The regime has responded to rebel advances in the past by bombarding the civilian population behind rebel lines, and could use the same tactic here.

That would vindicate the arguments of critics of Western policy that intervening only makes matters worse for ordinary people. However, attacks on rebel areas would hardly be distinguishable from the status quo.

Westerners in Jordan

Five-star hotels in the capital Amman have been targeted in the past by al-Qaeda.

''You can see special forces guys sitting around in the hotels. To take down the Jordanian economy and some American special forces would be a satisfying form of revenge,'' Mr Landis said. Jordan is a close US ally and depends on aid from Saudi Arabia, which is supplying weapons to the rebels.

The Turkish border

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an anti-Assad cheerleader, and allows rebels and weapons to cross the border. But a recent car bombing in the border town of Reyhanli that was blamed on the Assad regime triggered protests by local people unhappy with Mr Erdogan's Syria policies. More such attacks could threaten the security of a NATO member.

Rocket attacks

One of Iran's proxies is the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, though it might be wary of being further drawn into the Syrian conflict.

Iran also sponsors Islamic Jihad, a Gaza-based Palestinian militant group that has fired rockets into Israel.