Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

...
A weak area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will ride
along a stationary boundary situated near the Mason Dixon Line
tonight, with a cold front crossing the area during the day on
Tuesday. Low pressure will move across the northern Great Lakes
on Wednesday, pushing a strong cold front through the region
Wednesday night. High pressure of Canadian origin will build to
our north for the remainder of the work week before another
system threatens the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak low propagating along the front will lift northeast tonight
further away from the region. The front will finally begin to
make progress through the region as a cold front through the
early morning hours.

Along and just behind the front, we could see light
precipitation, primarily west of the Blue Ridge. With the
exception of higher elevations in WV, MD, and VA Highlands,
most of the region should remain well above freezing. Thus, if
any precipitation occurs, it will be mostly rain. In the higher
elevations of the Appalachians however, a rain snow mix
changing to all snow is possible. There is limited moisture with
this system though, so if any snow accumulation occurs it
should be less than one inch, or less than 2 inches along the
Allegheny Front.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Precipitation will come to an end as the northwesterly flow
behind the cold front will lead to dry air advection. The one
exception is along the Allegheny Front, where orographic lift
could result in lingering light showers.

With the cold air advection behind the front, temperatures will
be considerably lower than on Monday. Highs will be about 10 to
15 degrees lower than highs on Monday, or about 5 to 10 degrees
below normal.

On the back side of the low, expect a tight pressure gradient,
resulting in northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph at times
and up to 30 mph along ridge lines.

By Tuesday night, winds will start to diminish and skies will
clear out. This will set the stage for efficient radiational
cooling conditions. Consequently, widespread freezing conditions
are expected across the region, with the exception of the urban
centers where the temperatures may stay just above freezing.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in for Wednesday, continuing a trend of
below normal temperatures.

A dry, arctic cold front is expected on Thanksgiving. The air
behind this front is the coldest of the season so far, with
temps likely not getting far from the freezing mark on
Thanksgiving Day, and possibly reaching the teens in many areas
Thanksgiving night. See the climate section below for a few
notes on how rare this cold spell might be, though the midnight
temperatures will affect this.

Did not make many changes to the grids beyond Thanksgiving as
there is still considerable uncertainty with the weekend
systems. Many models trended slower with the onset of
precipitation, now depicting precipitation not arriving until
early Saturday morning. While a later onset would be good news
for most of the region, with the chance for precipitation type
to be all rain increasing, there remains significant chance of
some wintry weather at the onset especially west of the Blue
Ridge with the potential for cold air damming. Just how
persistent this wintry weather will be is yet to be determined,
but anyone with travel plans Friday night into Saturday should
keep an eye on evolving forecasts.

The low will likely pass us by Sunday and with a more Pacific-
type air mass following it, the storm looks likely to do what
the system last week did... nudge the coldest air back north of
the region and leave some more moderate temperatures over our
region for Sunday. Uncertainty regarding the timing of a system
quickly following on the first one's heals makes the forecast
for Sunday uncertain, but some rain is possible per the GFS, for
example. Other models, notably the ECMWF, allow for more of a
gap between the systems, which would make Sunday a fairly decent
travel day. Stay tuned...

Legal Disclaimer

HighCountryWeather.com is a privately owned and operated website. It is not a part of any association or weather organization and is a free service of appnet.com.

If you would like to have your business included on this site, please email us at [email protected]

Photo submissions: All photos of the day are either images that have been submitted to us from visitors to post, from our own photographers or from the ski areas themselves. If you submit an image, it must be your own or in Creative Commons, and by submitting it you are giving us permission to use it on SkiSoutheast/SkiNC or any of our creative designs. Please submit images that are relatively large, the ideal size being 1200 pixels or wider. Please include a description of your photo, so that other readers know what they're looking at.