USD/CHF: analysis on 08.06.2015

8 June, 2015

The pair is likely to fall.

Supposedly, the fifth wave continues to form within a bearish diagonal-shaped 5-wave structure. Apparently, the first wave (i) of v and its correction as wave (ii) have been formed locally. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break the critical level 0.9542, it's logical to expect the pair to continue declining to the levels 0.9130–0.8820.

Trading tips

Sell the pair from corrections below the level of 0.9542 with the targets at 0.9130–0.8820. Buy the pair with a target at 0.9600–0.9700 in case the level 0.9542 is broken.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9542 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to the levels of 0.9600–0.9700.

Since the beginning of this week, the pair continues strengthening amid some reduction in anxiety on the market. The Dollar was supported by data on Retail Sales that came out in the US on Friday. In January, the index grew by 0.2% that was slightly better than forecasts of economists...

Since the middle of the previous week, the price of Brent crude oil continues growing amid weakness of the US Dollar. In addition, the price is supported by expectations of the reduction in output by major world producers...

On the daily chart, the pair is trading just above the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA130, EMA65 and EMA14, all directed down. The RSI is failing to break out from the oversold zone as it tested its resistance at 32 mark two times last week...

On Thursday, the price of gold fell to its 5-year lows. The Bearish trend accelerated amid macroeconomic statistics form the US than strengthened expectations of an interest rates hike on the US in December...

The price remains under pressure amid strengthening US Dollar that was significantly supported after the publication of strong NFPR data in the US that substantially increased chances of an interest rate hike in December...

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading in the area of 48.10 which is seen as a particularly strong level as 23.6% Fibonacci both for the short-term and medium-term trends have concentrated in the area of 48.10-47.80...

At the end of last week, the price of Brent crude oil strengthened moderately, being supported by the weakness of the US dollar which failed to hold its positions, gained after the recent Fed meeting...

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