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Writing about British politics has become a high-wire act. Which angry spouse’s email may have leaked in the time between me pressing “send” and you reading this article? Or from whose back does a freshly inserted dagger now protrude? Honestly, if a scriptwriter had pitched the events of the last week to Netflix, they would have been laughed out of the room. So if what follows is already appallingly out of whack and, for example, Roy Hodgson has entered a late bid to become Labour leader, I can only apologise. One thing I can predict with reasonable confidence, however, is that Theresa May is still, today, favourite to become our next Prime Minister.

She and her small and dedicated team have, so far, played a blinder. The Home Secretary has also benefited enormously from the Shakespearean spectacle provided by Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. A dramatic turn of events that gave the British public two clear images – of squabbling, self-interested boys and a calm, unimpressed headmistress. A near-perfect political contrast.

It’s an image that’s been a long time in the making for Theresa May, who is now walking out of the shadow of her nasty party past towards the world’s most famous front door. It was always clear to those of us who worked closely with her that although leadership was never assumed or discussed, she never once lost the self-confidence to think that events might just make it possible.

David Cameron soon came, however, to rely heavily on Theresa – particularly in times of difficulty. Crisis reveals character and she never once, until the referendum in fact, shied away from doing battle for her boss.

Look through the history in government and you’ll see a pattern of someone who has, at the very least, kept her options open. Her “reluctantly Remain” positioning on the EU was the clearest indication of her leadership intentions. But long before Boris said of his own ambitions: “If the ball comes loose from the back of the scrum…,” Theresa had her mouthguard in and boots laced. In 2007, when I first started working for the Tories, the general view in the party was that her career had reached its peak. The media considered her to be aloof and old fashioned and, although in the shadow cabinet, she was only occasionally in the central strategic team. Respected, certainly, but rarely fully included.

David Cameron soon came, however, to rely heavily on Theresa – particularly in times of difficulty. Crisis reveals character and she never once, until the referendum in fact, shied away from doing battle for her boss. Theresa became, for me as communications director, the ultimate safe pair of hands who also didn’t play the ego-driven briefing game behind my back, as others did.

It was George Osborne who fully recognised the value she brought to the team and he was the man, on the day Cameron first sketched out his proposed Tory cabinet before the 2010 election, who argued that Theresa should be Home Secretary.

After the election, Theresa’s personal relationship with the media – particularly the newspapers – was at times frosty. She preferred instead to leave the job almost entirely to her special advisers. As she alluded to in her leadership launch on Thursday, lunching with journalists is a pastime she has avoided – sometimes to her cost. In the brutal world of Westminster it takes some guts to adopt and stick to that position but she has. Whether she continues to, of course, will be one of her first tests, should she make it across the threshold. For what will be admired in the short term by some newspapers as principled and serious can turn into arrogant in times of strife.

Her other issue is energy – does she have enough of it and is her health up to the rigours of leadership? The long days of strategic planning and negotiation that are ahead will require deep reserves of resilience. Having worked with her I can confirm she is tough, hard-working and determined. Six years in the Home Office is not a bad test of stamina and she has come through that pretty well.

In contrast to Theresa, former journalist Michael Gove has always had good relations with the media, is unfailingly polite and widely admired. He also has the benefit of being the wittiest man in Westminster. All rather at odds with his new-found image of cold-hearted political assassin.

Michael Gove is 'not entirely comfortable with this new role'Credit:
Paul Grover for the Telegraph

Something tells me that Michael, an inherently principled and decent man in my experience, is not entirely comfortable with this new role. But people change and I could be wrong.

He has one big advantage over Theresa having found himself on the winning side of the referendum. There is a logic that the next PM has to be a Brexiter. But the past few days would not have endeared Michael to the 125,000 members who will decide our next leader. The Conservative family is a mercurial collective and it doesn’t much like disloyalty. Team Gove must now explain precisely how doing-in their beloved Boris was in the national interest. I suspect also that the former London mayor, and those who supported him, will not go quietly. There may be more Shakespeare to come, only this time from The Winter’s Tale.