So scum is dimochka or jimbob. Currently leaning on dimochka. I've never had to be the deciding vote before. Going to do a read through. Will both of you vote each other now? I want to make sure scum doesn't hold the hammer.

So, I thought it might be helpful to go through the thread and have a look at any interactions between Sabrar and dimochka. Obviously, heuristically_alone, you should come to your own conclusion about what it means, and do a similar analysis of me and Sabrar.

D1:

Spoiler:

Jbby's one and only post did not contain any relevant content. Sabrar's first mention or interaction from his side comes well over a day later, eventually challenging Jbby to post more and simultaneously echoing LaserGuy's comments about lurkers needing to post. I could see this coming from Sabrar regardless of whether Jbby is his team-mate or not - he has a lot of form in pushing lurkers to post from previous games. This comment about not being able to afford a lurker policy lynch is interesting, given that Jbby was clearly one of the lurkers, although DethStalker, and to a lesser extent, somitomi could both also be considered lurkers. This is very convenient given that this rules out any risk of an uncertain town picking a lurker to lynch, that might so happen to be his scum buddy. Lynching a lurker is quite a common thing in situations with no clear scum player, and has certainly been known to catch scum in previous games. The next day, he goes on to request a mod-prod of Jbby, but this is a null tell, since he had also requested one on DethStalker previously, and similarly does so in other games. Has Jbby on the neutral line in his ordered reads list. It might be interesting to look at Sabrar's previous games as scum with lurking team-mates to see if this is typical, or otherwise. Overall, D1, there isn't much worth noting, apart from the no-lurker-lynch comment.

D2:

Spoiler:

Sabrar's opening post welcomes dimochka to the game and reminds him not to lurk. It might be interesting to compare this to previous games where he was scum and a player replaced, to see if he reacted the same way for both town and scum-buddy replacements, but I'm not going to do this at this time. Sabrar asks dimochka a question about possible scum buddies for heuristically_alone, which dimochka doesn't respond to directly in his next two posts, although he indirectly acknowledges the question, promising to consider possible scum-pairings later. His read of Sabrar feels very non-committal (summarised: "nothing inherently scummy, but who knows"). Sabrar responds to dimochka's reads and asks him a series of questions about them. Sabrar "gets a bad vibe" from dimochka, and wants him to answer his questions. Puts him at 50/50 split with somitomi as my theoretical scum-buddy. That's hardly committal, given that his only other option is LaserGuy, whom basically everybody had labelled as townie. Sabrar requested a mod-prod on dimochka later in the day. Sabrar and dimochka have a conversation about dimochka not posting over weekends. dimochka eventually responds to Sabrar's questions. There's a brief discussion between them about Sabrar's declaration of RVS being over, and Sabrar asks a follow-up question of him, but it all feels very polite, and not antagonistic (in comparison to for example the conversation between Sabrar and I). Sabrar, almost as an aside, finds dimochka as more scummy than somitomi, and later says in response to me that dimochka and somitomi would be his scum team if I weren't scum (basically only option if he treats LaserGuy as town); a later response to LaserGuy reaffirms his me/dimochka scum team. dimochka eventually responds to Sabrar's question about the possible scum teams, looking at them in detail. His teams involving Sabrar were 2, 5, and 6 in likeliest order. There's not really much comment on any of them though.

D3:

Spoiler:

With my late claim, it's no surprise that Sabrar immediately puts dimochka as scum-buddy with me. Sabrar claims that he would have switched votes to dimochka, which as I previously mentioned was a very convenient claim. His subsequent explanation about dimochka being who he'd have switched his vote to makes no mention of his previous scummy read of dimochka either, almost like he'd forgotten that he'd said this previously. Sabrar later states he'll vote for dimochka if he doesn't show up, which dimochka then duly does, sounding almost resigned to his fate. Sabrar's post here is so clearly mistaken it's funny - lynch me and the setup becomes clear in that town loses, instead of lynching dimochka, whom he is clearly "convinced" is scum and the setup becomes clear and I'm confirmed as a Doctor. Sabrar knows that scum really need to force the lynch away from dimochka, because failing to do so because hands the game to town, so all his efforts are going into getting me lynched instead (note that Sabrar never follows up on his promise to vote dimochka, nor states that he changed his mind about this). dimochka's response to Sabrar's case on me almost ends up sounding like he's defending me! Eventually, Sabrar sees that he's not going to be able to swing the lynch onto me, so he self-hammers to protect dimochka and keep me from being confirmed as the Doctor.

Summary: there's not a massive amount to pick up indicating Sabrar and dimochka are definitely on the same team, but I think a lot of the D3 content is worth looking at. In particular, notice how despite being "convinced" that the scum team is dimochka and I, Sabrar spends basically the entirety of D3 trying to get me lynched out of the two of us, despite previously suggesting that he would vote for dimochka. To me, that's the thing that's most damning, if I didn't already have confirmation.

Day 1Post 1: His breadcrumb. As it's already been discussed, this was a smart move to post that. I could be wrong, but I don't recall jimbob breadcrumbing his roles often. So this was done just in case, and done well (in retrospect). The post makes sense otherwise and comes off townie, although it's pretty logical.Post 2: He now doubles down on his first post and starts the argument with his scum buddy, because I don't see how discussion of setup is a drawback for town (since all this information is readily available, and it would be worse for town to be lacking it). And then posts questions that would result in the exact same thing.Post 3: Same thing, I don't see where he was going with his "different" questions. Honestly it looks like setting up a way to bus his scummate later. Literally asking the same questions for town to discuss setup, yet "blaming" Sabrar for doing that same exact thing.Post 4: Nothing helpful. Just questioning people regarding his questions.Post 5: Basically refusing to explain his questions (and note the explanation later - "to get discussion going" - which would be exactly what we would assume) for another dayPost 6: There's the response - he posted the questions to get discussion going and see how people respond. I literally don't see how that's any different from any other questions posted in any other game in D1. This is scum trying to look townie by making others talk. Also mentions he didn't look at setup possibilities yet prefer tracker/doctor setup (a. this is contradictory and b. this could be testing of the setup, since from his real POV as vanilla scum, any setup is possible). I do like the analysis, however.Post 7: supporting dethstalker (although this isn't indicative of scum, I agree with his reasoning). And asks whether jester is possible. After clearing mentioning that he looked at setups in the previous post AND has a preference...Post 8: N/APost 9: And now he doesn't feel setup is important, after asking everyone about the setup. Covering up for something?

Day 2Post 10: I guess he now caught up on setup. The post is, once again, pretty logical and nothing is inherently scummy, but it also doesn't provide anything new and novel in my eyes.Post 11: adding somitomi to list of potential scum - now a list of 4 people out of 7 (of which jimbob is one, and my former self who didn't participate at all is the other).Post 12: Continuing argument (there may be a better word for this) with Sabrar, this time about whether cop should claim town resultPost 13: Explaining his choice and reasoning to narrow down his analysis due to lack of time. Makes sense, though he's barely narrowed it (as mentioned above - basically just skipping flicky). Post 14: Analysis of H_A. I agree with most of it.Post 15: @Jimbob - I'm actually not sure which LaserGuy post you're referring to here (your first, and apparently only, post of page 5).Post 16: Came to a similar conclusion as I did later about Flicky / H_A. Adds me to the scum list after clearing LaserGuy. Post 17: Mostly responses to Sabrar. What stands out to me is that a lot of this looks to me like either apologizing or saying he'll get to it later.Post 18: an EBWOPPost 19: Analysis of Sabrar. Nothing significantly off, although I do have to mention that Sabrar does regularly make statement that are obvious from his point of you and aren't for most of us. As scum, I would find his "roleblocker" statement a good thing to point out, but as town I don't feel like it's a scumtell.Post 20: More re: setup, and a post I had mentioned previously that I felt was scummyPost 21: Nothing of note. Interesting hypothetical question regarding who else would be scum, but that's not indicative of anythingPost 22: Doctor claim. Analysis makes sensePost 23: Read of me. Post 24: Read of laserguy.Post 25: Asks for people to save him. Perfectly logical post give the limited information we have, and I still believe that my supporting it afterwards made sense.

Day 3Post 26: Claims that he tried to save flicky. Just as likely to be truthful as not. I also don't get the "scum had one wagon to latch onto" argument.Post 27: Explanation of previous post. I really feel like the fact that he needs to clarify everything and explain that he didn't mean it the way he said it is not a good thing.

To summarize- There were a number of inconsistencies about having read / not having read the setup (going back and forth more than once).- There were a lot of times he wasn't getting to analysis until later (frankly I was no different)- Quite a few times, he had to rephrase what he had said to make it sound less awkward scummy, and he had found other people strange/scummy for saying things that were similar (like those questions in the beginning)- The argument with Sabrar throughout seemed genuine at times, but almost too civil. Does not feel like this is a discussion between two people who have no other connections.

I know very well that I'm going against a breadcrumb, and as I mentioned I commend him for putting it in early on. With that being said, it's not like i'm going to breadcrumb being vanilla.

I don't know what else I can add, but I'm going through specifically Jimbob and Sabrar's interactions now to see if anything else stands out.

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

Something that bothers me most about Jimbob day one was his lack of interst in the setup, yet asking everyone about it, and now said setup has a HUGE impact on jimbob's strategy. Claiming doc is the only thing that saved him this game. Whether scum or town, I dont believe he didnt find the setup important when he bredcrumbed his role in the first post.

I also have a hard time believing completely Sabrar's claim that he almost missed the deadline and didnt unvote jimbob. Near deadlines, Sabrar is always king of checking up on it and not missing anything. Seems a lot like he was really wanting jimbob lynched.

Overall, Jimbob just acts more scummy that Dimochka. Could just be his meta. Hiwever, I would rather lose twenty dollars and my self respect by not lynching the claimed doc than lose by lynching an extra doc.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:especially given the risk of being counter-claimed

Look at the setup. Town has exactly 1 out of {Jailkeeper, CoP, Tracker} (main diagonal). Therefore if scum false-claims any of these roles then there is always a Town PR who can counterclaim. This is evident from the setup and doesn't need the 'analysis' that you just gave.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't remember all the reasons Sabrar has me as scum, but a couple stuck out to me over the weekend, which felt like a super weak reason, namely the bit about not believing me regarding my answer about why I didn't do setup spec early on. He claims that this is out of character, but neglects the fact that I've rarely played in semi-open or open setups.

Alternating 9P Mafia comes to mind but I admit that closed setups are the norm here. Still I don't see how that would influence your penchant for setup-analysis.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Similarly, he didn't like my late vote for heuristically_alone

Now you're just putting words in my mouth. Me mentioning that fact was just to show the flaw in LaserGuy's reasoning and not something I based my read on.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The way I remember reading that whole post was that his preferred lynch target suddenly just got cleared, so he's had to hurriedly put together a different wagon to push.

- Hurriedly? I found your content suspicious right from the beginning of D2.- Please show where I expressed my 'preference' as to my D2 lynch target.

This just doesn't sound like scum vs scum.

However Sabrar and Dimochka have very little correspondence, which seems unusually for Sabrar. I've read through Dimochka's posts a few times and can't find that pings me. I know in Shakespeare III Dimochka made plenty of specific reasons why he was lurking having to do with work. This game he only mentions work once and doesnt get into specifics of why work was keeping him busy.

Sabrar is easier to read I think than either Dimochka or Jimbob. So I think I should base my decision off of his interactions with the two.

@Dimochka, why do you think interactions between you and Sabrar was so limited this game?

heuristically_alone wrote:@jimbob knowing what you know now, what would you have done differently this game? (Excluding lynching town)

Not a huge amount, if I'm honest. Probably not asked those D1 questions the way I did, since everybody found them scummy (I knew where I was coming for from but nobody else seemed to). I don't think I had any way of knowing that mpolo would be killed N1, so there's not much point in me saying I'd have targeted him either. About the only other thing I might have done was to try to get dimochka lynched yesterday instead of Sabrar (my gut was telling me that Sabrar definitely didn't want dimochka lynched), but by the time I was home and had time to post, Sabrar had already self-hammered.

Regarding the setup, and especially given my limited time, I was happy enough not researching it early on, because I'd managed to piece together what the likely setups were from everybody's posts and knowing that there was a doctor in the game. Besides, on D1, it had no impact on the game, so using my limited time to look at it didn't seem like a useful thing to do. I did end up looking at it during N1, if I remember correctly, so that I could compose that post on claim recommendations early D2.

One thing to think about: there may be merit to the idea of Cop claiming a Town result if we're about to mislynch that specific player. I'm not sure if that's the right thing to do but 'allowing' the mislynch leads to LYLO with Cop's N1 result rendered useless.

I don't completely agree with a Cop claiming a town result to prevent a lynch at this point - if a Cop claims, then either they will get killed or roleblocked at night, almost certainly, rendering their potential result for N2 just as useless (when it has the potential to be more useful than the N1 town result), although it is definitely a trade-off - the Cop could easily still get roleblocked or they or their target could still get killed on N2, and confirming someone as town might enable us to lynch scum today (although we might just mislynch another town instead). Ultimately, I guess the Cop should make their own decision (how sure are they that we'll hit scum with the redirected lynch, for example, and how likely do they think they are a kill target).

Rereading this knowing Sabrar is scum makes it seem more than this is not a scum on scum conversation. And if it is, then wow that is impressive.

heuristically_alone wrote:Hiwever, I would rather lose twenty dollars and my self respect by not lynching the claimed doc than lose by lynching an extra doc.

I understand that, and I don't know what I would do in your shoes. But logically, having a breadcrumb in post #1 and then claiming to not have read the setup and not know what is and isn't in the game doesn't make any sense.

heuristically_alone wrote:I know in Shakespeare III Dimochka made plenty of specific reasons why he was lurking having to do with work. This game he only mentions work once and doesnt get into specifics of why work was keeping him busy.

Work has been no less busy, but I feel bad continuously blaming work for my absences (if I'm that busy as to have to explain myself every time, I probably should not play until things calm down, or figure out my scheduling better so the games don't suffer).

heuristically_alone wrote:@Dimochka, why do you think interactions between you and Sabrar was so limited this game?

I went back to look at this, and I actually don't see what you mean. Every time I posted, Sabrar had responded or pushed back or asked stuff. And he modprodded me (which I found strange to be modprodded that early). I think this is more a function of me not having many posts.

As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest tells for me is the fact that what jimbob is saying about the setup is not what his posting supports. And the only explanation for that is trying to make a fake claim work. Because while I haven't played games with scum false-claiming like that in the past, I also haven't seen someone selectively know and not know the setup throughout the game.

heuristically_alone wrote:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:

Sabrar wrote:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Anybody disagree with any of the above?

One thing to think about: there may be merit to the idea of Cop claiming a Town result if we're about to mislynch that specific player. I'm not sure if that's the right thing to do but 'allowing' the mislynch leads to LYLO with Cop's N1 result rendered useless.

I don't completely agree with a Cop claiming a town result to prevent a lynch at this point - if a Cop claims, then either they will get killed or roleblocked at night, almost certainly, rendering their potential result for N2 just as useless (when it has the potential to be more useful than the N1 town result), although it is definitely a trade-off - the Cop could easily still get roleblocked or they or their target could still get killed on N2, and confirming someone as town might enable us to lynch scum today (although we might just mislynch another town instead). Ultimately, I guess the Cop should make their own decision (how sure are they that we'll hit scum with the redirected lynch, for example, and how likely do they think they are a kill target).

Rereading this knowing Sabrar is scum makes it seem more than this is not a scum on scum conversation. And if it is, then wow that is impressive.

You know, I could see some parts of the thread where I would be doubtful about them being scum together too (in particular on D2, when I didn't actually think that they were teammates). But this specific example - what is it that stands out to you? To me this feels like normal Sabrar covering different scenario, and Jimbob relaying his thoughts. I could see this exchange happening regardless of whether they were teammates.

If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

heuristically_alone wrote:Hiwever, I would rather lose twenty dollars and my self respect by not lynching the claimed doc than lose by lynching an extra doc.

I understand that, and I don't know what I would do in your shoes. But logically, having a breadcrumb in post #1 and then claiming to not have read the setup and not know what is and isn't in the game doesn't make any sense.

I don't follow. Don't forget that my role is in my PM, so I knew at least one thing was in the game (namely a doctor/dove). Even without knowledge of the rest of the setup, it still makes sense to breadcrumb. People do so regularly in closed setups when they have equally little information.

No sense in waiting any longer. You can only read a game so many times. I have to trust my gut. I have learned that my scum reads are usually absolutely wrong, and jimbob in general seems more scummy to me. A pattern I have noticed is that players read immediately as scummy more often than not are town. Also, the convos between sabrar and jimbob just seem so not scum on scum to me.

VOTE: Dimochka

If I am wrong, congrats Sabrar on your first scum win here (and jimbob for a great claim). If I am right, may all grovel beneath my wings.

In the end, it could only be one of two: the dove, or one of the two sparrows who rounded out the remaining voting members of the council of birds.

They spoke eloquently before the third sparrow, the one who had been cleared by the dearly departed albatross. Some wondered whether it was possible that one of them was an ibis at all; after all, their intelligence may not be perfect, and they were both so persuasive.

But somebody had to have shot Laserguy only hours earlier. One of them had to be the ibis with the nuclear launch codes, who could turn the planet into a picnic-free wilderness until the end of time. The only upside would be that the ibises could not be a disgrace to the entire bird family if they were all that remained.

But one sparrow would not let that happen. He flitted from crime scene to crime scene, examined Sabrar's ghastly cloaked form to see if there were any clues. He thought long and hard.

Finally, he landed in front of the crow. "I have made my decision." He said, his feathered chest puffed.

"Then tell it. We will have the goose take care of that bin-juice drinking c-"

"I think there are two ibises left." Yelled the sparrow, before the crow could finish his sentence. "I thought it was odd, Crow, that someone would take such pleasure in thinking of creative ways to kill his fellow birds. Then I realised... that's exactly what an ibis would do!"

"What? Don't be ridiculous!" Cawed the crow.

"And it would be very ibis-like to have us execute a poor, innocent, pure dove in cold blood, and thus give the ibises control of the council."

"No! We did no such thing!" Came the other sparrow; immediately, placed his wings in front of his mouth, regretting his impulsiveness. His hideous body started to morph and change into something nobody should ever look upon: a hideous fusion of ibis and sparrow.

Other birds started chittering; the goose made honks, the pair of mated penguins peeped, and the tone of the parrot's 'polly wanna cracker?' was most shocked indeed.

And the force has not been seen before or since as all the bird family united to make right what had once been wrong. The sparrow himself tightened his body, stuck his beak out, and flew with all his might directly at the abomination's heart.

The crow cried out in shock. "No! No! This can't be happening! We - we were so close..." And he, too, began to twist and change.

Within minutes, the clearing was full of white feathers, blood, and chunks of ibis flesh. The two disgraceful creatures had no chance against the righteous might of the rest of the bird family. Even the scabby seagull was above scabbing such dangerous material, and she helped the lorikeet scoop all the detritus into the closest bin.

A bin that they now knew would now be free from having its juice gulped by a dumpster diving bin chicken.

Dimochka was executed as a result of the group vote. He was an ibis (scum roleblocker).

heuristically_alone wrote:I also have a hard time believing completely Sabrar's claim that he almost missed the deadline and didnt unvote jimbob. Near deadlines, Sabrar is always king of checking up on it and not missing anything.

*phew* Good job heuristically_alone for picking the correct one of us! I think I'm going to have to start using breadcrumbs more often...

Also, good job LaserGuy - I'm impressed with just how amazingly townie you looked for most of the game to most players, so much so that scum decided it was better to kill you than a confirmed townie leading into final-day LYLO. At least, I'm assuming that's why scum killed you (they assumed that there was no way they'd persuade me to vote you over dimochka).

Madge, I really enjoyed the flavour, even if I didn't follow all the references. I like the more light-hearted nature of it. Thank you for running the game.

Having seen this game, I'm not sure how my opinions now stand on claiming cop D2, with a town result. I think it's what swung the game in town's favour (combined with LaserGuy's super-townieness). We gained effectively 2 confirmed townies, and then when I ended up claiming, scum had to push that I was false claiming, knowing that if the roleblocker ever got lynched, I was also confirmed town, leaving very little space for scum to hide in. I just wished I'd jumped onto dimochka in the D2 lynch, instead, going for the safe vote, rather than risk dimochka not turning up (I actually ended up checking the thread one last time after I said I wasn't going to and saw dimochka had voted, otherwise I would have switched). That would have led to the roleblocker and probably me dead N2, with another cop result from flicky, and 2 confirmed townies, in a 5 player game, making the game solved, I think (3 out of 5 alignments known with a mislynch still left).

Looking back, claiming my result might not have been the best idea, but I felt I could see where the day was going and it ended with a heury lynch. I just wanted us to have more time to find the real scum, rather than letting everyone follow that path and then claiming closer to deadline when there would be less time to re-analyse.

flicky1991 wrote:Looking back, claiming my result might not have been the best idea, but I felt I could see where the day was going and it ended with a heury lynch. I just wanted us to have more time to find the real scum, rather than letting everyone follow that path and then claiming closer to deadline when there would be less time to re-analyse.

Well, it's hard to argue with results, and the person you saved ended up winning the game, so don't feel too bad about it As I noted in thread, I think your claim was a bit premature--lynch may have moved in a different direction--but confirming the player who was currently the top scum read of a lot of people as town is a pretty good result, and with the two of you town, I think it did really constrain the possible scumteams going into D3.

heuristically_alone wrote:My heart was pumping with so much adrenaline as I voted. I was convinced I had chosen wrong seeing jimbob's and Sabrar's spoilers to each other post hammer.

Sorry, I didn't realize I was putting you in so much of a dilemma. I had thought you were pretty confident in reading dimochka as scum D3, so I wanted to push Sabrar, your weaker scumread, in case we ended up in this sort of endgame.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:*phew* Good job heuristically_alone for picking the correct one of us! I think I'm going to have to start using breadcrumbs more often...

Yes, that breadcrumb turned out to be a very fortuitous decision on your part.

[quote=jimbobmacdoodle"]Also, good job LaserGuy - I'm impressed with just how amazingly townie you looked for most of the game to most players, so much so that scum decided it was better to kill you than a confirmed townie leading into final-day LYLO. At least, I'm assuming that's why scum killed you (they assumed that there was no way they'd persuade me to vote you over dimochka).[/quote]

Thanks From what I recall of the spoilers, I think scum killed me because they basically felt that there was no way we would vote for each other. I had you marked as town since early D2, and you had me marked as town D2 as well. So neither scenario of LaserGuy/jimbob/dimochka or LaserGuy/jimbob/Sabrar was going to turn out well for them.