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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

I think we'll see a big effort from the Washington Wizards tonight at home. They are coming off a bad 116-124 home loss to the Orlando Magic. I have to give them a little break because it was the 2nd of a back-to-back, but start PG John Wall, who scored 52 points in the loss, wasn't giving his teammates a break after the loss.

"Not even just defensive effort, just playing hard," Wall said. "Our job is to wake up and just play hard. Before you made it to the NBA or got a college scholarship, you played hard to get where you wanted to get to. To still be talking about playing hard. ... That's the easiest thing. Shouldn't have to do with any contracts or any money. Just come in and play basketball."

The Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They nearly erased a 29-point deficit in Brooklyn last night, but lost 111-116 in the end. They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and I don't see them having much left in the tank here tonight.

The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Washington. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.

The Memphis Grizzlies have shown a ton of heart in overcoming all their recent injuries to win games. They saw injuries decimate their team last season, and thus lead to a terrible finish down the stretch, and they don't want that same fate again.

The Grizzlies have responded in a big way by going 4-0 in their last four games overall to improve to 15-8 on the season. They just got Zach Randolph back recently, so they are getting healthier, but they are also proving that their bench is better than it gets credit for as several players are stepping up right now.

While the Grizzlies had yesterday off to recover, the Blazers don't have the same luxury. Portland will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after a 107-115 loss at Milwaukee last night. This team has been abysmal defensively this season, giving up 112.5 points per game dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - an excellent offensive team (at least 02 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference foes. Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Western Conference opponents. Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

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The Oakland Raiders are going to be out for revenge from their 26-10 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. That was actually the last time they lost a game, as they have reeled off six straight victories since. And it was an awful spot for the Raiders as the Chiefs were coming off their bye week with a big advantage in rest.

But the Raiders have been rolling since, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming in a 3-point win over Carolina as 3.5-point favorites. The other five wins all came by 6 points or more. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring at least 27 points in all six games. And the defense has steadily improved, allowing 24 or fewer points in five of the six contests.

This is an Oakland offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game and 5th in total offense at 391.7 yards per game. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. They just have trouble moving the football this season, and their defense hasn’t been any better, ranking 29th in total defense at 384.9 yards per game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are 9-3 despite ranking 23rd in total offense and 29th in total defense. If that’s not overachieving I don’t know what is. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 51.6 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some very poor company. They have been outgained in five straight games despite going 4-1 over that time frame.

At some point, the Chiefs’ luck is going to run out because this isn’t a very good football team. They are winning with smoke and mirrors. A whopping 16 of their 29 points last week came from their defense and special teams against the Falcons in a game they should have lost. They also got 9 points from their defensive and special teams in a win over the Broncos the week before. And four weeks ago, their offense didn’t score a touchdown and they beat the Panthers.

But we saw what happened when the Chiefs couldn’t get points from their defense or special teams in their last home game in Week 11. They lost 17-19 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 7-point favorites. And that game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bucs outgained them by 99 yards and were held to four field goals. The Chiefs have been outgained by a total of 592 yards in their last five games, which equates to 118.4 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a good football team.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series between Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the road team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Kansas City. And Oakland has been a tremendous road team over the past few seasons. The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS on the road this season alone.

And the Chiefs certainly haven't had any home-field advantages of late. They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win. It will be cold in Kansas City tonight, but the winds will be in the single-digits, which helps Oakland's elite passing attack. Bet the Raiders Thursday.

There is a huge talent gap between Iowa State and Iowa this year. That's why I fully expect the Cyclones to win their fourth straight meeting with the Hawkeyes, which would be a record for them in this series. There is certainly no love lost here, and they won't feel badly at all at beating up on a down Hawkeyes squad.

Here's a quote from Iowa State's senior leader Monte Morris. "We want to go in there and make a statement. Set the tone and send a message both to Iowa and the country. We're trying to go out there and beat them badly."

The Cyclones boast four senior starters this season. They are off to a 6-2 start with their two losses coming to Cincinnati and Gonzaga by a combined 3 points. I think the loss to Cincinnati a week ago really only helped this team get motivated and focused moving forward.

Following the Cincinnati loss, the Cyclones dominated Nebraska-Omaha 91-47 at home as 18.5-point favorites. That's important because Iowa lost to Nebraska-Omaha just two nights earlier 89-98 as 11-point home favorites. That gives these teams a common opponent.

This is a young, inexperienced Hawkeyes team that is still trying to find their way. They are just 4-5 this season with an 8-point loss to Seton Hall, a 33-point loss to Virginia, and 8-point loss to Memphis, a 14-point loss to Notre Dame and that aforementioned 9-point loss to Nebraska-Omaha. Their four wins have come against Kennesaw State, Savannah State, UTRGV and Stetson.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games coming in over the past three years. Iowa State is 11-3 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Iowa is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a straight up win. Take Iowa State Thursday.

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