Just like that

Michelle Makos has been a realtor for years. Director of the ginormous Toronto Real Estate Board, partner in a Pickering-based brokerage, and once named to be among the “25 Most Influential Women in Canadian Real Estate.” Yeah, she probably bought the title. But still, you have to admire a businesswoman whose logo is a pink stiletto.

Her blog post, “And just like that…silence”, made the rounds over the weekend, confirming what this pathetic blog’s been yapping away about for months. This market is pooched. It’s also interesting coming from a veteran house-flogger who works in one of the areas of the GTA which has been most lightly hit by the collapse in real estate activity in the past five weeks. But even in Durham Region the lights are also going out.

Some of her comments:

“It would appear that everyone who wanted to sell their home, waited until after Easter weekend and it seems that the we are now saturated with listings. By looking at the listings and the sold listings it would appear the ratio is about 10:1… meaning for every 10 homes listed, ONE home sells within a week…”

“Let’s not panic. The Buyers now have great opportunity to purchase homes without the bidding wars and without paying crazy over asking prices. They may even be able to get a home inspection. Those days were unheard of a few months ago.. hell, even a few weeks ago. But it has definitely shifted and Realtors need to face the reality that the Sellers are no longer in the driving seat…..The BUYERS are… but many of the buyers were frustrated and didn’t want to play anymore and have retreated.”

“There are homes out there selling for UNDER asking now. Homes are being listed at the price they are expected to get and not silly under value prices and encouraging bidding wars. Those days are slowly disappearing. This is good news for buyers. On top of all the uncertainty, we are also seeing some Buyer Remorse out there. Buyers who haven’t closed yet on their deals and now seeing all the choice out there are feeling they overpaid.”

By the way, another realtor (John Pasalis) crunched the sales numbers available to insiders like him, and reports that in the 30 days following Ontario’s bubble-busting assault, buyers have freaked. Across the region sales plunged 26%, but in some areas – like the northern exurbs where speculation and buying were the most frenzied – things are colder than Kim Jung Un’s frosty little ticker. The sales declines were 62% in Richmond Hill, 46% in Markham, 44% in Newmarket, 34% in Vaughan and 31% in Aurora. Ouch. Giant Mississauga and Brampton not spared either, with plops of 27% and 15% respectively. Mighty 416 even saw 23% fewer deals.

At the same time, listings are going nuts. With sales falling and more homeowners trying to take advantage of historic prices, inventory is piling up in a way not seen for decades. Maybe ever. The choice for buyers literally doubled in a few weeks.

And while Ontario followed BC’s lead and slapped on a foreign buyer’s tax equal to 15% of the entire purchase prices, Pasalis says that’s not behind the crash. Rather the bull was dying of old age all on its own, with the 33% year/year price romp in March being the final indignity, and now speculators are jamming the exits.

As he told reporters:

“They disappeared – no one is talking about buying money-losing rental properties any more. The whole excitement and euphoria is kind of gone right now. The whole mood of the market has changed, and that is the bigger factor. People are spooked – investors are spooked, buyers are spooked – and I think that’s the huge issue. Our agents are getting calls from listing agents begging them for offers, just begging them, because the seller is freaking out because they already bought something and they need to sell their house.”

So, you can see when veteran agents and brokers throw in the towel so quickly that this correction may have legs. Toronto prices were down about 3% month/month, and the stats to be released at the end of this week (Vancouver) and the start of the next one (GTA) will be fascinators.

Sales can crash, sellers panic and realtors fret, but will valuations follow? Is this the start of a national housing event that will shave 20%, a third or half off property prices? Impossible to tell, but the odds favour a substantial decline rather than a mild dip. US rates are rising, our key trade deal’s in question, household debt is insane, the average Toronto new-build just hit $1.8 million, incomes are slipping behind inflation and by every measure our real estate’s delusionally over-valued.

But, I hear you cry, what about Vancouver? The Chinese dudes tax there had nothing but a temporary effect, with prices heading higher again. Why can’t the same happen in Toronto?

Of course it can. So, as Michelle says, go ahead and buy. Be a man. But first check out the “bull trap” below. When human emotion changes, you can ignore this chart. But not yet.

170 comments ↓

I revisited this case in my Possible Pinkies folder and got a surprise.

When I first pointed out that these guys and a lot of other guys nowhere near their buy price could be in trouble down the line a couple of months ago,some people insinuated I was a moron.

Well that might be the case, but I’m Garth ” Thor” Turner’s kind of moron.

As you can see by the timeline below they started off with a good buffer ,but after paying 1.325m for this condo last July,they decided to stop trying to burn Joking Man’s book to send up smoke signals that they are in trouble and need rescuing,and now tune into Flop T.V every night to see if their prayers are going to get answered.

Who knows what’s going to happen,might work out fine.

You just know what’s going on in Vancouver real estate has their full attention.

They’re not alone ,as I have some cases where people forked out 1.5m for 20y.o for condos in the Cole Harbour area downtown ,but the guys I am most interested in seeing what happens to ,are the couple of cases I have out in Richmond where they lost their minds and paid over 3m for condos just so they can get a free back massage as the planes rumble overhead…

Slow down Smokey! If we use the stock market as a comparator a correction of 10% is considered healthy? Yet….because bidding wars have ended the market is pooched?

For as long as interest rates remain low, Trump is in office, Canada is going to be a place that people want to invest in. Vancouver when through something similar but is far from pooched. In fact, what we are observing there is far more balanced than this blog proclaimed?

And what is the bond market signalling? Mortgage rates in the US at six month lows? Hmmmm…..

And at the Toronto law firms, the real estate conveyance partners are losing the braggadocio and the litigators are contemplating an upgrade to their wheels. Right royal fun. Sideways and soured real estate deal disputatious palooza.

“And while Ontario followed BC’s lead and slapped on a foreign buyer’s tax equal to 15% of the entire purchase prices, Pasalis says that’s not behind the crash.”
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I believe that the subprime issue with Home Capital is the canary in the Real Estate mine.

Here is one for Flop:
4870 MCKEE PLACE, Burnaby, British Columbia V5J2T2
$2,188,000 as shows on MLS
$1,860,000 dropped new price
$328,000 drop

$1,681,800 current assessment
$1,450,000 18/Dec/2015 last sold

so still a ways to go on this bloated listing.
I went to the open for this listing on the weekend and there was no one else there the whole time I was looking.
The Burnaby south slope has one of the highest LTI (Loan To Income) ratios in the lower mainland of over 450% where the measurement tops out which is an indication of the extreme speculation in that area.

#1 -Condo asking prices at the lower end in New West/Coquitlam/Burnaby area of the Lowermainland, BC have shot up this yr…would be interesting to know if they are selling and getting their asking price. Christy Clark’s foolish % free loan to first time buyers may be having the effect of encouraging people to raise their asking price??

i had some free time time i was playing with google forms and exporting them in google sheets, so i enterd some info from your post from above just to try how will look and works fine.

below are pics of form and sheet export looks ok, not as good that Smoking Man would make because VBA spredsheat “tatamata”, but i found it simpul to make and use, and spread sheet is ok-ish.

more data point more acurate will get. so you cold share link with people that you would trust that will eneter korekt numbers.

So what i am saying here you are alrady doing what are you doing, if you get a flop google acc and use a gdrive and google doc to make similar form and kepp doing what you do in no time will be able to plot and get an idea of “scientific” proof which way thing are going, and if you share spread sheet, for futur disecting of numbers would be great.

Hey NoName,yes we all know that I will take as much help as I can get.

I put up a heap of addresses the other day because I thought I was ready to go back to work after 7 months off and Friday morning I put my back out loading my tools back in my van as I haven’t lifted anything heavier than my toothbrush for a long time.

I’m sure the realtors on here will chip in for the chiropractor to help get me back to work…

So we’re at “Denial” right now then. Summer is “Bull Trap”. September is “Return to Normal”. January is “Fear”.

January because I’m pretty sure with this backwards neoliberal thinking by the Trudeau regime that we’ll still have terrible wage growth and actual inflation (not those poorly weighted CPI numbers) will hit everyone after the christmas buying period. US Fed raises rates, Canadian dollar is low, BDC and EDC still doing a terrible job at creating new value-add business, and the Bay Street headquartered infrastructure bank just handing another blank cheque to the banks; a pretty good storm.

(funny how you can “regime” for any government eh? The media only uses it for governments they want to overthrow though..)

Talking at length with an honest realtor today (yes I know honest and realtor don’t usually belong in the same sentence – but anyway) she said the game has changed overnight and now the issue is the delusional sellers still thinking their pieces of crap homes are still steaming. The sellers are going to realize, in a very short time, that no one cares about their listed dumps. Buyers remorse is running rampant and the meme is starting to change into “the last thing you should do right now, is buy real estate.” It seems that the party has ended in Onterrible with the sellers still thinking their is a last call. Hah ha ha. I love it!

I am going for a diagnosis of probable rapid onset cataracts in both eyes. Checks with area eye surgeons confirm I will have to wait 12 months for surgery under BC Med by which time I could be functionally blind. Cataract surgery is usually successful in restoring eyesight almost immediately and is now somewhat routine.

The practitioner I have chosen is prepared to perform private surgery in less than three months. I realize that Canadians are united in their belief that houses always go up and private medical care is evil incarnate but what would you do in my situation?

A large percentage of elderly people get cataracts and their ranks are swelling daily as boomers retire. If it is a 12 month wait now, what will it be in five years? What about hip and knee replacements?

And yet I read this in the local rag.

VANCOUVER — The British Columbia government is being accused of using a vast supply of taxpayers’ dollars to win a legal war of attrition against advocates for two-tier health care by the man who has become the face of privatized medicine in Canada.

Dr. Brian Day, an orthopedic surgeon and owner of Cambie Surgery Centre in Vancouver, said he believes the government is trying to delay a B.C. Supreme Court trial to whittle down the resources of those in favour of private care, who launched the lawsuit.

Well Milton is pooched! So many listings so few buyers. At the open house today, no one came, no one cared, no one offering anything. Things that use to fly off the shelf are now sitting like week old bread, hard and crusty. Too bad for all the greater ones who paid way too much for chip board and cheap craftsmanship.

I’ve been hearing about bidding wars in the low end (1M to 1.5M) of my neighbourhood (Westmount, Quebec), which is quite unusual around here, and was wondering whether this is a ‘bull trap’ or if the insanity of YVR and YYZ has moved east. I hope it’s the former. I need to trade up into a bigger house, but really wish I were doing it in normal times.

Once again, I received an e-mail from a real estate agent, that now is the best time to buy a Condo in downtown Toronto while the supplies are abundant. Prices will keep on going up in a few months! Buy buy buy

After a super cold and snowy winter in the Okanagan, mind you sales were brisk while the snow was on the ground, things are slowing down here as well. Once the mosquitoes hatch from all the flood waters …… well where to now ?

All is eerily quiet in Mississauga. An aggressively priced executive home off the best street address in the city, just sits and sits waiting for a buyer. . .not even all the 8’s in the offer price is tickling anyone’s fancy. My parents, who live next door (and who never want to move) can’t believe how fast the market has changed since March, where anything listed went the next day.

Wow, nothing happening good in my neck of the woods High Park- Bloor area. New listings have been flooding the market, but all the buyers have vanished. No bull trap here, just the sound of the bubble pooping and a large thud.

Ha ha, I love it. Our friends who all drastically overpaid for slanty semi’s and Particle Board homes are all starting to regret their recent purchases. The sound of music has turned at our get togethers from “I can’t believe you guys rent” to “oh, my gosh you guys were so smart to sell and rent”. I have to tell you, it was music to my ears, I stopped short of saying “I told you so.”

I have been waiting so long for a RE correction, that I had pretty much given up hope. I still don’t believe it will be anything substantial. RE seems to defy all reason, it probably will again. I watched the house I rent go from 850, to 1.1M to 1.4M in about 3 years. Nothing is going to make this work out in my favour. My only consolation is that in the few months since Trump got elected, my portfolio has paid for all my years of renting.

You would think buyers would halt buying and watch the trapped sellers scream in financial pain. Many sellers bought a house and face bankruptcy woth two mortgages. They can’t pay for one mortgage yet alone two. Buyers stike for a few month would cause a panic no one can even imagine. RE in the GTA is a ponzi scheme and no more suckers = CRASH!!!!!!!

“The practitioner I have chosen is prepared to perform private surgery in less than three months. I realize that Canadians are united in their belief that houses always go up and private medical care is evil incarnate but what would you do in my situation? “

I did exactly what you did a few months back, and might have even had the same surgeon in Vancouver as you are considering.

For the value it presented (ie: being able to see), it was practically a no-brainer. Of course, the people who would have whined about the cost of doing it privately are probably those who made poor choices with their money and are now complaining that “the government” won’t bail them out of the outcomes of their decision making.

Went to an open house today in the outskirts of the GTA and it was laughable. The house was a mess, cats everywhere (yuck!), the smell of cat urine in the house and just filthy – ask price 1.14 million. The house was a total gut job. The very few people that showed up for the open house were visibly angry with the agent saying “what a ridiculous price” and the agent said, point blank, “the sellers are delusional.”

#23 Laurentian Elite: I’ve been hearing about bidding wars in the low end (1M to 1.5M) of my neighbourhood (Westmount, Quebec)
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That’s the bargain-basement fire sale end of Westmount prices. No wonder there are bidding wars on those properties. People in T.O. and Van. should see what beautiful homes look like. There aren’t ANY in Vancouver. Westmount puts anywhere else in North America to shame.

Even if toronto market was going down by itself, government intervention definitely helped it. What are your views on the BC situation? There will be a minority government with the Greens holding balance of power. How will this workout for Vancover real state. Both Greens and NDP seem hell-bent to pop the bubble.

On its own, Vancouver real state decline could take years before we see signs of affordability. But
could government help it go down faster?

Please let us know! It can even be your blog post on coming wednesday :)

Greens said they will let their intentions know on Wednesday who they will join hands with.

It ain’t over till it’s over. I’ve heard this kind of talk on this blog many times since 2008 and so far nothing.
“Vulch time” may have to wait a long time before this house of cards comes crashing down. As long as interest rates remain low people will keep borrowing their brains out…end of story. Until then stay out of debt and only buy if you can afford to do so without leveraging yourself to death. Great post Garth

Also found this very 22nd century “food for thought” article/book. I am upto chapter 7 (roughly halfway) and so far encompasses most of our modern day ailments. Especially asset price inflation. An excellent read in my mind. Can definitely bet on quiet a bit of it being realized. It was written/perceived early 2016.

Settle down folks, this baby has a long way to go before one can even thinking about vulching. Sheesh let us not get carried away. Bottom line, until rates go up significantly there will be nothing to “vulch”.

One does not need to look further than Calgary as to how sticky prices can be on the way down…..

The current charting does not look good for the GTA. And we haven’t even seen the fear yet.

Currently, im seeing a slow process of new floors in pricing emerge in many areas– ie. 20 houses for sale in the 800-900K range in the same area (mostly similar in size and footage and age) one person lists at 650K- sells for 750K- thats the new floor.

Slow process but its starting to emerge- the same way it did on the rise- it will on the drop.

Its just going to get worse as homes that sold in the hot March-April range will have all have closes end of June- start of July (after school is finished) and if those folks have not yet sold- BUT already purchased and factored in the sale price of their home to be X- what happens when their home sells for Y- how is that difference going to be made up?

Thats when you will start to see some real fear and aggressive pricing.

As buyers see better and better homes coming up in the same price range (for now) they will just wait- because there is no more FOMO. its more like fear of paying too much.

Garth if your chart is correct- then to get back to mean value we are talking in the approx market of 40-50% drop from todays value (GTA)- and that is only mean……

#33 Rover Rover
Why do you get such great pleasure when you think your friends made mistake by not selling and rent? That is not how a true friend behave. Are you planning to rent forever? If so, how do you know your friends will not ride another housing boom later and be way ahead of you in the long term? If you are planning to buy and sell (i.e time the market), how do you know you will guess right all the time? We human beings tend to think too highly of our ability.

Data will show GTA housing sales in May dropped 40% compared with same month last year; price dropped 10% from April 2017’s $920k to $830k.

Home Capital now has $1070 million total liquidity. Pressured by collapsing GTA housing market and loss of more deposits (it still loses about $30 million in GIC daily), Home Capital will be brought again to the brink of bankruptcy by June 15th.

US spends $600 billion on defense; Canada spends $15 billion on defense. In fact, I think that $15 billion is pretty much money wasted. Canada should just cancel its defense budget completely and lease the DOD building to Tim Hortons. Just hang a sign that says: “This is Canada. We are to the north of USA. I dare anyone to invade us!”

You would think buyers would halt buying and watch the trapped sellers scream in financial pain. Many sellers bought a house and face bankruptcy with two mortgages. They can’t pay for one mortgage yet alone two. Buyers stike for a few month would cause a panic no one can even imagine.
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Great idea. That would be the best way to handle things.

Another Canadian RE correction is upon us! Really? I’ve heard it all many times before since 2008. Well, the rumours of RE’s demise were all very premature. Those who listened and stayed on the sidelines lost out big.

Our agents are getting calls from listing agents begging them for offers, just begging them, because the sellers are freaking out because they already bought something and they need to sell.”

Having been in that situation, I feel sorry for the sellers. Jane24 said she had been a real estate agent. Their stress was her stress so she quit. I’m afraid that we will start to hear of real tragedy. Garth Turner can point to this blog and say that he did everything he could possibly do to tell people not to get themselves in this situation. In my own way so have I.

#51 MF on 05.28.17 at 9:24 pm
I think this is nothing more than a minor blip before prices continue rising and mania continues here in the GTA.

Nobody I know is mentioning anything about this supposed “slow down”. Houses are still seen as the premier investment.

-interest rates still historically low with no increase in sight. BoC governor is convinced ZIRP is the only way to go even though everyone else tells him it’s a disaster.
-CMHC still exists

MF
….

Makes complete sense to me stubborn sellers if they don’t get thier March loto ticket will de list and wait for better times. Invetory will dry up and back to stupidity. Rates are heading down. Now if Trump pulls off his tax cuts. Not as easy as it looks. Municipal bonds are calling his bluff. But if he does that changes the game in the bond market.

But

In 30 years from now when a SFH are selling for 20 million people will be shaking their heads just like I shake mine when my house was bought 30 years ago for 15k

And while Ontario followed BC’s lead and slapped on a foreign buyer’s tax equal to 15% of the entire purchase prices, Pasalis says that’s not behind the crash. Rather the bull was dying of old age all on its own, with the 33% year/year price romp in March being the final indignity, and now speculators are jamming the exits.

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Ya…..the whole ‘the market was on the way down before the tax’ argument was raised with the Vancouver market. But wasn’t if funny that while Ontario introduced several measures, and BC only introduced the foreign buyers tax, that sales stopped immediately after the tax was implemented in both provinces. Clearly, no ahem, correlation.

Of course, the whole ‘the tax was tipping point’ argument is now moot in Vancouver as the sales decline failed to translate into price declines; condos and townhouses are on fire; and the percentage of foreign buyers is back above the laudable ‘5%’ of the market that the development industry cited to obfuscate the role of foreign capital.

All “bogus” on your YVR “assessment”. Current sales in this dead cat bounce/ bull trap are running -25% below May, 2016. The market here is not “on fire”…and there are a LOT of price drops throughout Metro Van.

Agreed. The BC medical system is about as sane as its housing crisis. In Europe and the UK, dual private/public health systems are the norm. The BC system is, by contrast, fairly barbaric, leaving many in pain for long periods at best, and probably causing longer term damage to others. I experience many physicians as thoroughly demoralized. BC Health officials need to get out more and see how other countries take a dual system in their stride, providing a far better and more humane level of care – and without the ‘good doctors all leaving for the private system’. That so many believe the latter, is evidence of widespread ignorance and incredible complacency in the face of a serious failure to provide timely medical care. Surely BC has individuals capable of designing a dual system that works?Canada is so far behind in this respect, those in charge should be mortified. What is ‘world class’ about a system that cannot treat you for multiple months? And what is ‘civilized’ or ‘first world’ about being told you do have the option of seeking help yourself. Unless you can afford to travel out of Canada, the latter is nothing less than denial of a human right to medical care. However, never mind, at least the dentists can earn astronomical amounts for saving teeth.

Central banks have taken control of the markets along with high speed algos front running. So for the normal guy it’s called speculating not investing anymore. If you think the central banks will continue to prop up the markets with the plunge protection team play that trade either way the market goes the right speculation will make money. The markets won’t crash though but they may find real market value one day.

“#46 Millennial falcon
It ain’t over till it’s over. I’ve heard this kind of talk on this blog many times since 2008 and so far nothing.“Vulch time” may have to wait a long time before this house of cards comes crashing down.”

I agree. Nothing will change. Not anytime soon in Lower mainland, the outskirts or YVR.

GTA starts to crack and everyone all excited that they can “vulch” now after signs of a 3 week melt down. We really do have an endless supply of house horny, real estate worshiping greater fools out there, just ready to rush in to make their millions at the very top of the market.

You can’t reason with stupid. People believe that it’s different, they see those who bought 6-7 years ago are millionaires and want the same… only thing is, people can only afford crappy condos now so that is why prices in that price range are going up. Christy Clark made it public the she is giving x amount of greater fools free money to buy condos so naturally prices rise.

Way to cool the market… it was an election trick and worked.

It has to be replayed starting in 5 years but in the new culture, debt is money so who cares. No one ever expects to have to repay their debt. It’s different there. If things get bad, just sell that 700 sq foot, 500k condo for 1.6 million and enjoy 1.1 million tax free in a few years.

This whole thing is so stupid that if it wasn’t totally leading up to a world of pain, it would be funny. If buyers just stopped buying the whole thing would stop but there are too many house horny Canadians to do that…they all just can’t wait to “vultch”.

Poloz is a disaster and until money actually costs something then the party will go on.

Plus lending restrictions are still super lax, bank of mom & dad, still giving little Timmy 100+ k or more to buy that condo, groups of people are still buying what ever comes on the market restricting supply (based solely on speculation near top of the market), plus if you rent you are a degenerate fool with no financial sense and you have to endure those “looks” from your colleges, like “oh, you poor fool, you just don’t get it”.

The only economy in Canada is people buying and selling houses to each other.

BC sold out to foreigner money and money launders but the boomers don’t care. They have their retirement saving now, with a winning lotto ticket. This will still take years to play out. I mean who thought it would go on this long when prices really make no sense.

Money is still free, lending still super lax, and greater fools are abundant in BC so party on, and they may return in GTA as well. Real Estate is Religion in Canada. That is hard to change, no matter what it costs it seems.

1. Emotional appeal
2. Veneer of authority: Story traces itself back to a leak or statement or something that supposedly happened.
3. Effective insertion point into the online space.
4. An amplification network (like Twitter or Facebook)

Listen to ‘The Daily’
How the unsolved murder of Seth Rich has become a case study of how and why fake news endures

zte five year investigation- engaged in series of actions from the highest level to hide violations ; numerous false statements, obstruction of justice ,cleansing doc. departments with auto correct to auto incorrect.

Why gut the foreign practices act? Are kickbacks now an accounting item under finders /consultation fee?

“An overall 26% loss in economic activity in just 1 month…boggles the mind.

At that rate of decline, you have fear.”

And let’s not forget mid-August…..Trump & Co. will be redesigning NAFTA that will make a visit by a Ceti eel seem like a pleasant experience.

Between that and factory relocations back to the US, the negative impact on Canadian re will be epic. Increasing job quality deterioration as well as epic consumer debt will continue to add to an already toxic mix.

Government recommendations for improving the economy to date:
1- Get out there and spend, spend, spend: FAIL. Consumer debt is now hovering at nearly 1.7 times income. Many are fast approaching the point of not even being able to cope with interest payments.
“You’re poorer than you think”.

2- Infrastructure spending: FAIL. A fraction of what we’re currently spending is actually useful, however most is just an acceleration, or bringing forward of future obsolescence and repair. This is further exacerbated by the crappy standards of construction and materials. Good for the truck and beer industries, bad for the rest of society.

3- Squash interest rates to near zero: FAIL. This has poured gasoline onto everything from consumer debt to desperate and ignorant malinvestment to furious younger generations, worried-sick retirees and a generally unhappy society.

We are so far from economic health and balance and this trend continues with vigor. Bozos at G7 meetings haven’t a clue as to what might help. Shaking hands and bobble-heading doesn’t work. It’s been tried ad nauseum already. Remember?

#101 Smoking Man on 05.29.17 at 6:46 am
#99 neo on 05.29.17 at 5:50 am
#56 Smoking Man on 05.28.17 at 9:46 pm
Another house sold in Shlong Branch.
January priced.

That’s the sweet spot. Anyone trying to get March and Feb prices. Forget it. That ship is smoke on the horizon.

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Except all of the 30% appreciation in the 416 and GTA this year occurred between January and March. So you are really saying lower your prices 23% right now to sell. How is that good?
….

Feb and March were an anomaly. There was nothing for sale and a few suckers who lost there minds that had money to burn.

The pool of buyers that could afford the march madness was few and far between.

Yet now it’s the new benchmark. So expect a very confused market for a few months. Stubborn Sellers with cross armed buyers. Stuff will sell at January prices at much lower sales volume.

Is my call.

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That’s fine, but the point is January prices you talking about are 23% less than they were in March/April so you are saying to sell a $1,040,000 house for $800,000 and everything will be fine except it won’t be for the seller. This entire parabolic move since spring 2016 has been an anomaly of fools rushing in at the end of a housing cycle.

“The practitioner I have chosen is prepared to perform private surgery in less than three months. I realize that Canadians are united in their belief that houses always go up and private medical care is evil incarnate but what would you do in my situation?”

Get the surgery. In addition to everything else, you’ll be doing your bit to reduce wait times for people who need to get it done through the public system. You’re a saint.

“Return to the mean” has not happened in Alberta. In traffic is still increasing. I was at Costco NW yesterday at 4 pm. Had to wait for a parking spot. The place was packed. The day before that I was at daughters dance to learn a dance act. Me and about 35 other dads. Each one of these schmucks is putting out about $10K a year for their kid to be in this expensive hobby of dance. There wasnt even enough room to move in this studio to learn the act, it was stupid.

And here there are people saying the sky is falling and the economy is crashing in Alberta. Likely these people are those who bought pre 2005 when real estate was reasonable. Do the smart thing, sell the place and leave. The only reason I am here in Calgary is for the wage. If myself or wife lost job we would leave. She hates it here. Crappy traffic, lousy weather, too close neighbors, city taxes, etc etc. If you are in south Calgary it isnt as claustrophobic, but good luck if you have to go to the north as the idiots who planned the city made the lovely Deerfoot trail which crawls much of the day.

Calgary is really a waiting game. Wait to get the money and wait to get out, either shortly or in years. Wait patiently.

Forget about the electric car, can u imagine the brownouts when everyone plugs in to charge at the same time? We will need oil and coal fired electricity generating plants just to keep up.
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Not really, Tesla’s developed efficient electric warehouses capable of powering cities at cheap cheap rates.

Forget about the electric car, can u imagine the brownouts when everyone plugs in to charge at the same time? We will need oil and coal fired electricity generating plants just to keep up.
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Not really, Tesla’s developed efficient electric warehouses capable of powering cities at cheap cheap rates.
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Maybe, but you don’t need to go that far to find the solution. There is a large amount of unused capacity during the night-time which would be used and then your car is fully charged first thing in the morning for the day. Most people don’t drive long distances. In addition a gas plant is much more efficient that the engine in a car and gives off much less pollution.

Ultimately it will be an economic argument, though. Once electric cars are cheaper to buy and run that gas they will take off and that is likely to happen soon.

#20 Andrew Woburn on 05.28.17 at 7:54 pm
I am going for a diagnosis of probable rapid onset cataracts in both eyes. Checks with area eye surgeons confirm I will have to wait 12 months for surgery under BC Med by which time I could be functionally blind. Cataract surgery is usually successful in restoring eyesight almost immediately and is now somewhat routine.

//////////////////////////////

Hey WOEY,although not a medical blog, I care about you guys and so I just placed some calls on your behalf and apparently the best guy in Vancouver to do this operation is a guy by the name of Dr Simon Holland.

I wonder if places like Brampton and Markham will be hit even harder by the market correction?

– These two cities have attracted a disproportionately large numbers of immigrants from South Asia and China over the last few decades.
– Caucasians now represent the minority in those areas and many have left those cities as demographics have shifted.
– A large % rely on mortgage brokers such as Home Capital. Lots of speculation and foreign money laundering.

When the time will come to sell those properties, these cities might have a tough time attracting buyers that are not from South Asia or China.

I can only imagine that prices will take a bigger beating when people realize that the pool of potential buyers is limited.

“Return to the mean” has not happened in Alberta. In traffic is still increasing. I was at Costco NW yesterday at 4 pm. Had to wait for a parking spot. The place was packed. The day before that I was at daughters dance to learn a dance act. Me and about 35 other dads. Each one of these schmucks is putting out about $10K a year for their kid to be in this expensive hobby of dance. There wasnt even enough room to move in this studio to learn the act, it was stupid.

And here there are people saying the sky is falling and the economy is crashing in Alberta. Likely these people are those who bought pre 2005 when real estate was reasonable. Do the smart thing, sell the place and leave. The only reason I am here in Calgary is for the wage. If myself or wife lost job we would leave. She hates it here. Crappy traffic, lousy weather, too close neighbors, city taxes, etc etc. If you are in south Calgary it isnt as claustrophobic, but good luck if you have to go to the north as the idiots who planned the city made the lovely Deerfoot trail which crawls much of the day.

Calgary is really a waiting game. Wait to get the money and wait to get out, either shortly or in years. Wait patiently.
———————————————————
I’ve made the same observation regarding traffic, when the oil downturn first hit Market Mall in the NW looked empty – relatively speaking.

But recently I’ve noticed congestion returning to the city. Is this part of the prolonged dead cat bounce?!

I just googled 970 Castlemore Avenue, Markham and legitimately laughed out loud. Is the 2 million price tag a joke? I guess the owners think there is a massively moronic greater fool out there. Who’d want to live in Markham anyway? Yuck. It’s almost as bad as Vaughan.

Tesla has not even been able to achieve the basic minimum for any business – making money. If it weren’t for Federal handouts, Tesla would have been broke and gone years ago. Tesla is a corporate rock-star, but addicted to crack and dunk on hard liquor (provided free of charge by investors and the US taxpayer).

Well here I sit in YVR waiting for my puddle jump flight over to the Island. I just spent a week in the green belt of Ontario visiting with family. Returning to the rainforest to escape the rain??? Who would have thunk it.

Geoengineering, what could possibly go wrong???

Anyways, I wrote a post here a little over a week ago now explaining my visit and how I was interested in talking to some people in the 905 to see just how delusional people really are. The internet ate that comment and it never seen the light of day.

So now that I have some time, here is my tale. I was at a bonfire Saturday night in the heart of the green belt and got talking to a couple about real estate. Imagine that. So while the wife was explaining to me how their second mortgage has increased exponencially this year due to her convoluted explaination of having being subprime, her husband was rolling his eyes saying everything is fine. All they have to do is fix up the house they just bought in Oshawa and flip it for a profit. Duh. But, but, but, before they can do that they have to get another guy who was there, who I have known my whole life, to fix the roof. Now the guy they have selected to do the roof is a great guy, but I wouldn’t hire him to roof my dog house. So the junker house needs to be renovated before they can sell, but they have to sell because they can’t afford their new mortgage payments with their subprime lender. Now that to me is a pickle I’d prefer not to be in. I had enough with the conversation as the tension was getting thick. So I switched the conversation to pizza.

Pretty sure no one at the party will read this and I am almost positive that the couple amature flippers will soon realize just how toxic an overleveraged junker in Oshawa can be

MF
Have you looked at moving to a lower cost area,I was up in the Okanangan valley wine tasting and there are houses available in Penticton for under $300000 now.
Take your cash and buy a little house there,great summers,great ski hills but the work is lower paying and harder to find but with no/small mortgage life can be good.
I agree that rising rent sucks but it will turn in your favour and when it does grind them down!

…”The regulator was immediately suspicious but played along for more than an hour to get information. He signed up under an alias and fake email address. The phone number he was given looked Canadian, as did the address — but neither was legitimate. The person on the phone became increasingly desperate to get his credit card information.

Manitoba fraud investigator gets phone call from scammer

“It was very slick, very sophisticated,” Roy told CBC News, “That’s why we’re so concerned [as] we are seeing Canadians drawn in on an increasing basis.”

While the phone number appeared Canadian, Roy traced the number from Ontario to Pennsylvania, then Colorado, then Latvia, and eventually to an end user in Israel — a growing hub for such activity according to a recent investigation by newspaper The Times of Israel.

Toronto people – Find a good neighborhood, go out and make lots of low bids with open subjects on great quality places. Some desperate seller out there will eventually take one up. Use this time wisely – a dead market gives some nice opportunities

There is a much bigger storm approaching than the end of the housing bubble: the vast “unfunded liabilities” for pension plans. It will be interesting to see what is cooked up as “solutions” starting with massive tax grabs.

Here is the last year’s report for one of the “best managed pension funds in the world”:

#105 More Trumpery on 05.29.17 at 7:44 am
“Look at the way I’ve been treated lately, especially by the media,” Trump said. “No politician in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.” — Donald Trump

Donny, you poor thing. But what about Lincoln, JFK, and Garfield? Trump has no grasp of American history.

“Politicians became accustomed to the largesse of the bloated real estate sector, whose campaign contributions have been running roughly twice those of the two next largest sectors, mining and forestry. In recent years, lawmakers and developers hardly attempted to conceal their connections: Before stepping down this year, Bob “Condo King” Rennie, one of Vancouver’s largest real estate players, was the chief fundraiser for the ruling Liberal Party, which over the last decade took in 35 times as much in contributions from the real estate sector ($10.5 million) as did the opposition NDP ($300,000).”

…”At the heart of allegations against Barrack in Italy are claims that he and associates in his private equity firm, Colony Capital, orchestrated a complicated scheme involving Luxembourg-based companies to shield tens of millions of euros from Italian tax authorities after Colony’s 2012 sale of the Costa Smeralda resort to Qatar for €600m ($670m)….’

1. Emotional appeal
2. Veneer of authority: Story traces itself back to a leak or statement or something that supposedly happened.
3. Effective insertion point into the online space.
4. An amplification network (like Twitter or Facebook)

Listen to ‘The Daily’
How the unsolved murder of Seth Rich has become a case study of how and why fake news endures

—
i don’t believe a word from msm,
msm unanimously covers one side,every time.
remember ‘leonard cohen, defrauded for millions by his manager has to drag himself on the road’ ?
You never saw his manger on tv- never. her name is kelley lynch, her side is a lot more interesting than his

What’s an “efficient electric warehouse”? What type of non-electrical energy does it use and what method does it use to convert the non-electrical energy into electrical energy? Solar? Wind? Fossil Fuel? Nuclear?

Don’t tell me you mean the Tesla Gigafactory! Batteries only store electrical energy. You still need to the get the energy from somewhere in order to charge the batteries.

Note for civil litigation lawyers,bankruptcy trusties: If you need some new wheels just hold on a bit, shortly there will be a flood of recent years,low mileage luxury wheels available at rock bottom prices……

I just googled 970 Castlemore Avenue, Markham and legitimately laughed out loud. Is the 2 million price tag a joke? I guess the owners think there is a massively moronic greater fool out there. Who’d want to live in Markham anyway? Yuck. It’s almost as bad as Vaughan.

#111 Calgary Rip Off on 05.29.17 at 9:53 am
In what province is the chart at the end of the article applicable?

“Return to the mean” has not happened in Alberta. In traffic is still increasing. I was at Costco NW yesterday at 4 pm. Had to wait for a parking spot. The place was packed. The day before that I was at daughters dance to learn a dance act. Me and about 35 other dads. Each one of these schmucks is putting out about $10K a year for their kid to be in this expensive hobby of dance. There wasnt even enough room to move in this studio to learn the act, it was stupid.

And here there are people saying the sky is falling and the economy is crashing in Alberta. Likely these people are those who bought pre 2005 when real estate was reasonable. Do the smart thing, sell the place and leave. The only reason I am here in Calgary is for the wage. If myself or wife lost job we would leave. She hates it here. Crappy traffic, lousy weather, too close neighbors, city taxes, etc etc. If you are in south Calgary it isnt as claustrophobic, but good luck if you have to go to the north as the idiots who planned the city made the lovely Deerfoot trail which crawls much of the day.

Calgary is really a waiting game. Wait to get the money and wait to get out, either shortly or in years. Wait patiently.

—————————–

Calgary…lousy weather? You don’t like bright sunshine and low rainfall?

Only thing I dislike about Calgary’s weather are the chilly summer nights. Good sleeping weather, yes, but a bit annoying to have to bring along a light jacket or long-sleeved shirt if you’re going to be out late even in July.

#105 More Trumpery on 05.29.17 at 7:44 am
“Look at the way I’ve been treated lately, especially by the media,” Trump said. “No politician in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.” — Donald Trump

Donny, you poor thing. But what about Lincoln, JFK, and Garfield? Trump has no grasp of American history.

She’s a sniveling little goof. Can’t write worth a crap. Only people that belive in Unicorns like her work.
Her fiction sucks, no pararel with what’s going on in the present world. No easter eggs or cryptic messages. Two dementional at best.
So only a few people bought mine. Dosent mean it’s crap. It’s not the amount sold that counts. It’s about the art of writing in 4 dementions

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well dickhead, JK Rowlings didn’t have to sell her make believe boat, cottage or home to fund her Casino Jaunts and I’m pretty sure she doesn’t drive a beater Ford pickup with a broken windshield. So for a a shitty writer I think if I were you I would learn how to suck up to her and get sum educatin!https://www.earnthenecklace.com/j-k-rowling-net-worth-the-first-billionaire-author/

We use the data leak of the Panama Papers on April 3, 2016 to study whether and how the use of offshore shelters affects firm value. We find that the leak erases $135 billion in market capitalization among 397 public firms that we trace as users of offshore vehicles exposed in the leak. These firms use offshore vehicles to finance corruption and aggressively avoid taxes, which increases firm value, but also to expropriate shareholders. Firms implicated by the leak consequently show lower sales from perceptively corrupt regions and lower tax aggressiveness. On net, offshore sheltering enhances firm value by promoting potentially illegal activities that go beyond tax avoidance. Offshore service providers facilitate such activities.

SWL1976: So the junker house needs to be renovated before they can sell, but they have to sell because they can’t afford their new mortgage payments with their subprime lender. Now that to me is a pickle

Both parties have a comprehensive approach to tackling the affordability crisis in BC – increased supply of market and non-market housing; extending the BC foreign buyers tax to all of BC; doubling the tax; a 2% retroactive speculator tax until proof of income is supplied; a foreign money laundering and tax fraud task force; and sliding property transfer tax to ding the high end….

If only the news media would pick this article up and announce it then watch the sudden crash. As now it is what and who to believe as around here. There will be some buyers who are in the dark as what is really going on. And it is a shame to do that to people that are consumers of our communities. And to run an economy. Wonder if Kristy going to boost about the economy when the severe downturn happens?

It has been said that the Greens and the NDP have similar beliefs. I think people like honesty in government. Not say one thing to get elected then do nothing or something. But doesn’t this sound like T2 with broken promises and the latest is funding for the Veterans.

Off topic but brushing our teeth with baking soda and natural toothpaste; we like the clean feeling. Google “Rahbar Dentist: Dental Matters that Really Matter.” And we do not use fluoride. And we do not tell the dentist because they say that baking soda is too abrasive. Old age rebels we are, lol.

Both parties have a comprehensive approach to tackling the affordability crisis in BC – increased supply of market and non-market housing; extending the BC foreign buyers tax to all of BC; doubling the tax; a 2% retroactive speculator tax until proof of income is supplied; a foreign money laundering and tax fraud task force; and sliding property transfer tax to ding the high end….

Also, for the renters, they will clamp down on renovictions and probably get rid of the fixed term lease…

#105 More Trumpery on 05.29.17 at 7:44 am
“Look at the way I’ve been treated lately, especially by the media,” Trump said. “No politician in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.” — Donald Trump

Donny, you poor thing. But what about Lincoln, JFK, and Garfield? Trump has no grasp of American history.

She’s a sniveling little goof. Can’t write worth a crap. Only people that belive in Unicorns like her work.
Her fiction sucks, no pararel with what’s going on in the present world. No easter eggs or cryptic messages. Two dementional at best.
So only a few people bought mine. Dosent mean it’s crap. It’s not the amount sold that counts. It’s about the art of writing in 4 dementions

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well dickhead, JK Rowlings didn’t have to sell her make believe boat, cottage or home to fund her Casino Jaunts and I’m pretty sure she doesn’t drive a beater Ford pickup with a broken windshield. So for a a shitty writer I think if I were you I would learn how to suck up to her and get sum educatin!https://www.earnthenecklace.com/j-k-rowling-net-worth-the-first-billionaire-author/
….

Suck up to an idiot, are you out of your mind.
Her books are full of fill. Long periods of no action.
No thanks, low boardem toalarance here.

You are one strange bastard. Claim to be conservative yet you side with the lonny left.

Far be it from me to comment on Rowling’s literary prowess or yours, Smoking Man, but at the very least she knows how to spell the following words (from your last post): believe, unicorns, parallel, Easter, dimensional, doesn’t, dimensions. I do commend you for correctly spelling the words sniveling, it’s, write, two, and cryptic. (Very impressive!)

Don’t forget that a unicorn is also a financial term meaning a relatively new company, usually less than ten years old, that is valued at $1 billion or more by public or private investors. So, yes, I do believe in unicorns.

“Bow down before the king of idiots.” I think I first heard it on a “buffy, the vampire slayer”. That was a woman to cover my back. Too bad real life is tough (not fair) and she is not there. But I keep hopes.

I have a big screen TV with a sound system. I might watch it once a month for a movie – “John Wick” was the last and “Fury” previous. Measuring up is going is to be tough.

I have a small LCD in my kitchen. I leave it on when I am not listening to the stereo. So guess what! I leave it tuned on a women’s talk host channel.

I like the sound of woman’s voice. Every now and again I will listen. Woppie Goldberg said it best for me – I just do drive by’s. At my age, building relationships is getting hard. Ellen DeGeneres makes me laugh. Kelly Ripa is no slouch.

I have been listening to the “Dark Side of the Morning” – it ain’t me. I managed to score again – Sandvine.

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The views expressed are those of the author, Garth Turner, a Raymond James Financial Advisor, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. It is provided as a general source of information only and should not be considered to be personal investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor's circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. The information contained in this blog was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. Raymond James Ltd. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.