But if you think the analogy is as simple as: A Greek default would be a total disaster, just like Lehman was, you're not thinking broadly enough.

What really makes this so Lehman-like is this idea that investors are still convinced that the EU/IMF/ECB won't possibly let Greece default, all the way up until the last second. Nobody could fathom that bureaucrats in DC would let Lehman fail, either.

And then they did.

It really speaks to the note from Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid that we discussed last night: Investors ultimately believe that leaders will act rationally, and make everything okay at the last second. And it's this faith in rationality that ultimately blinds them to the potential for real crisis.