Friday, 13 February 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from Elections ETC

It’s a tossup! Our model now gives Labour and the Tories each a 50%
chance of winning the most seats, and our central forecast is for them
each to win 281 – leaving them both 42 seats short of a majority.
That represents a very small shift towards Labour since last week’s forecast,
which had the Tories slight (52%-48%) favourites to win the most seats
and a central forecast of 282 Conservative MPs to 279 Labour ones.
That’s not because the polling’s moved towards Labour (it hasn’t: our
average still them on 33% to the Tories’ 32%, for the sixth week in a
row), but because another week has gone by without the Tories making the
gains history suggests they should.
Before getting too excited about the possibility of both parties
winning the same number of seats, it’s worth remembering that, although
it’s our central forecast, that specific outcome (like any specific
combination of MPs) is not very likely. Note that our confidence
intervals are still pretty large: roughly ±50 seats for both the
Conservatives and Labour.
More important is the broad picture of this election, which remains unchanged since last we launched our new model a month ago:
The Tories are likely to win the most votes (with a 69% chance), but
not by much (central forecast: Con 33.7%, Lab 31.4%). So it’s 50-50 as
to which party wins the most seats, and we’re likely to end up with a
hung parliament (85% chance) with the two largest parties pretty
finely-balanced.
Labour are more likely to be able to form a government, though,
largely due to the presence of a number of SNP MPs (41 in our central
forecast). Our model suggests a 58% chance of a Labour-led alliance
commanding a majority, an 18% of a Conservative-led one doing so, and a
24% chance that either could, depending on whom the Lib Dems supported.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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