Serious crime in Harrisburg fell almost 10 percent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to the same period a year earlier, perhaps a sign that new policing strategies promised by Mayor Eric Papenfuse are already starting to pay off.

Harrisburg saw 1,474 serious crimes from January through March, a drop of 161. (The most common serious crimes involve drugs, assaults, burglary, theft, and criminal mischief. Major violent crimes like murder, rape, robbery and arson accounted for less than 100 of the city’s total. See chart here.)

It’s clear that this year’s cold winter played some role in the crime drop. When it gets really cold, even criminals hunker down. By comparison, the winter of 2013 was unusually warm, so it’s likely that more criminals were out and about.

“The weather certainly helped us this winter, no doubt,” Police Chief Thomas Carter said in an email to PennLive.

But Mayor Papenfuse and Chief Carter say much of the change can be credited to the department’s new tactics.

“We also have put into place some important strategic changes, including street patrols, closer cooperation with neighboring police departments and community policing,” Chief Carter wrote. “We’ve got more police walking the streets, and we’ve got more eyes and ears in the neighborhoods.”

“We were lucky with the weather, but we have to give the bulk of the credit to the hard work of our police officers and the strong support we are now getting from the mayor.”

Minor crimes like underage drinking, disorderly conduct and harassment actually rose by a bit more than four percent. Yet, that could be a sign that officers are more aggressive about writing up minor offenses. It’s a way of letting criminals and the community know that police are watching closely, ready to catch those who’d commit more serious crimes.

It’s also important not to make too much of what may look like big changes in the number of relatively rare crimes like murder, rape, and arson.

The mayor, for example, could tout a 40 percent drop in homicides, while his critics could point to a 40 percent increase in arson. In each case, the difference is a grand total of two crimes. Changes like those don’t say much about the city’s overall crime trend, because the numbers involved are so small.

Counting all offenses, minor and major, from January to March, crime in Harrisburg dropped 3.7 percent versus the same period in 2013. Not quite as striking as the 10 percent drop in serious crime, but a change in the right direction, nonetheless.

(One caveat: There isn’t an easy way to cross-check the crime statistics issued by the department, so we have to trust that nobody is fudging the numbers to make somebody look good.)

With crime going down, it’s only natural that a mayor and police chief would want to take a good share of the credit.

What does an unbiased source say about the fall in crime that Harrisburg saw during the first quarter of this year?

Here’s what Eileen Ahlin, criminal justice professor at Penn State Harrisburg, told PennLive in an email:

“Chief Carter is correct. There are many factors that contribute to reductions in crime, including uncontrollable events such as weather (colder temperatures are typically related to less criminal activity), the proactive strategies of the police department, as well as community and government support for these efforts.”

The real test comes as warmer weather arrives, according to Ahlin:

“Hopefully the reductions in crime will continue as the temperatures rise and we will see lasting effects of the programmatic changes within the police department.”

Matt Zencey is Deputy Opinion Editor of PennLive and The Patriot-News. Email mzencey@pennlive.com and on Twitter @MattZencey.