Letta Seeks Post-Berlusconi Italian Majority in Confidence Vote

By Andrew Frye -
Nov 26, 2013

Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s 2014 budget faces a confidence vote in the Senate today,
the first test for the government’s new majority and possibly
the last stand in parliament for Silvio Berlusconi.

The vote, scheduled for 8:30 p.m. in Rome, will showcase
the alliance Letta is counting on to support his government
without Berlusconi, the three-time ex-premier who is the object
of an expulsion vote from parliament tomorrow. Berlusconi, 77,
has criticized the budget as too austere and has yet to say
publicly whether his new Forza Italia party will vote for it.

“The coming weeks, and particularly, the next few days,
will be a difficult period for Prime Minster Enrico Letta’s
government,” Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst with Teneo
Intelligence, said in a research report yesterday. “Despite the
upcoming political turbulence, Letta will likely retain the
support of a Senate majority.”

The ruling coalition is in upheaval as lawmakers are split
by their competing loyalties to Letta and Berlusconi, who helped
create the government in April. The two leaders came into
conflict after Berlusconi’s conviction in August for tax fraud
prompted expulsion proceedings against him. The Senate is
scheduled to vote tomorrow evening in Rome on whether to strip
the billionaire of his seat.

Letta’s Majorities

Letta needs 161 senators to carry the 321-seat upper
chamber and will probably have to assemble two different
majorities to win the budget vote today and the ballot on
Berlusconi tomorrow. Today, Letta will rely on ex-Berlusconi
allies like Constitutional Reforms Minister Gaetano Quagliariello to push the budget through. Tomorrow, the premier
will need help from opposition parties to push Berlusconi out.

The vote on Berlusconi tomorrow isn’t scheduled as a
confidence vote, meaning the government will stay in power even
if the motion to expel him fails.

For the budget, Letta can count on 108 votes from his
Democratic Party and 20 votes from the Civic Choice party
previously led by former Premier Mario Monti. Another 29 votes
have been pledged by the New Center-Right, the party created by
Quagliariello and other ex-allies of Berlusconi, who broke with
the former prime minister last month.

Further votes may be picked up from two groups with a total
of 20 senators who are unaffiliated with the major parties. At
least 18 of these lawmakers supported Letta in the April 30
confidence vote to install the government. In doubt are the 62
senators in Forza Italia, who contributed to the 233 votes won
by Letta’s government in April.

Berlusconi Vote

The vote against Berlusconi tomorrow will be anchored by
the Democratic Party and the 50 senators from Beppe Grillo’s
Five Star Movement, the biggest opposition party.

The New Center-Right has said it will join Forza Italia in
opposing the ouster. Further support for Berlusconi should come
from the 16 senators of the Northern League and at least one of
the two autonomous groups.