The Big Picture

Green Today, Gone Tomorrow?

Rich-country governments are spending trillions of dollars to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19. But in their understandable desire to alleviate immediate suffering, policymakers risk keeping the global economy on a path that leads to even greater threats.

But deadly pandemics and climate change are just two of the many possible global threats facing humanity. And Johan Rockström and Ottmar Edenhofer of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warn that if today’s short-term measures to reopen economies do not promote long-term economic sustainability through effective governance of the global commons, then the next disaster will be only a matter of time.

To prevent such catastrophes, says New York University’s Gernot Wagner, political leaders in the United States and elsewhere must start taking systemic risk more seriously. With other foreseeable disasters on the way, he says, there is no excuse to postpone building resilience.

One issue that often does not receive much attention is: demography.Every year the population in the world increases by 83 million, 97 % in the developing world. For a stable population you need only 2,1 child per woman. In many western countries, Russia, China and others the birth rate is below that figure. However in developing countries the birth rate goes up to 7,0 per woman, in particular in Africa and the ME.The African population will increase from 1,25 billion to 2,5 billion in 30 years. Exceeding the 0,5 billion of the EU. Of course these developing countries, on average, do not have the large footprint in consumption of natural resources of the developed countries.But that will change. The UNHCR supports only children. But when these become adults they want a job and raise a family. In the developing countries massive unemployment will develop. Leading to social unrest, migration, warfare and even "failed states".While the declining population in the developed world may lead to a decline in the consumption of natural resources, in the developing world consumption and social conflicts will increase. Fed by an unregulated population growth of biblical proportions.The burden of this population growth is unevenly spread over the world.In his YouTube documentary Michael Moore, "Planet of the humans", shows the impact of the global population explosion on Nature,So, I think to make the world sustainable requires not only green solutions, but addressing family planning in each county exceeding an average birthrate of 2,1.This is the primairy responsibilty of those developing Nations.

"These problems can be managed only through collective action that starts long before they become full-blown crises." Collective action? As if collective action is smarter than non collective action. Better to have many political entities all trying to solve problems in their own way- when one works- others will follow. We don't need a world wide "politburo". It can't work. It will attempt to redistribute wealth- and the wealthy nations aren't going to allow that.

The Man-made climate emergency myth is the biggest Hoax of the Century with science being subjugated by over liberalized political will and media hysteria at a level not seen before.The media hysteria has reached a point that reasonable fact based debate on the subject is impossible due to the almost religious fanaticism from “the believers” that man-made climate changeis an Armageddon that requires a colossal level of immediate global action. Our governments are being railroaded into policies that will cripple the progress and sustainability of our modern civilization.We lack Scientific Consensus…..Many politically motivated study groups have said……..“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warmingsince the mid-20th century”. They believe that future climate change will cause higher temperatures,Lower temperatures, more snow and blizzards, Drought, fire, and floods, Rising sea levels,Disappearing glaciers ,loss of sea ice at the poles, Species extinction, more and stronger storms,more storm damage, more volcanic eruptions, dying forests, death of coral reefs and shellfish,shutting down the Gulf Stream, fatal heat waves, more heat-related illness and disease, crop failureand food shortages, Millions of climate change refugees, Increased cancer, cardiovascular disease,mental illness, and respiratory disease, and some say a devastating effect on the quality of Frenchwines!However, many credible scientific experts are now saying….“there is no convincing evidence that human release of carbon dioxide although it has increased willin the foreseeable future cause a catastrophic heating of the earth’s atmosphere and disruption of theearth’s climate”…The global climate is always changing over very long periods and at this time frame it is slightlywarming .. But it’s NOT significantly due to human activity or Carbon Concentration and It is NOTcause for alarm and may even be beneficial….This global warming over the last century has been slow and has stopped increasing and has reduced in the last decadeWe at present have far less global ecological issues such as forest fires, floods and storms than in recent history.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased for many reasons other than humankind. But onbalance, it may be a good thing as it is increasing plant growth on the planet and improving the foodsupply across the whole ecological structure of the planet.

The Paris accord with its focus on climate change and demanding a carbon and energy austerity program is just so much wasted political arm waving at the international level. Such policies are not in the best interests of the western world and President Trump was correct in de-committing the USA from such an expensive and economically destructive agreement…The real enemy is Pollution not climate change..Reducing our dependence on dirty carbon fuels is a worthy goal but it will be a very slow process…We do need to focus on clean and sustainable sources of energy as a modern society needs energy to thrive and this need will increase in most economies.The only viable and cleanest solution is to switch to nuclear power. Solar and Wind are Non-Strategic and Impractical and just cannot support an advanced economy that needs energy 24/7 in enough and uninterrupted amounts. Hydro power and some other clean energy solutions may assist, but we needa nuclear strategy now, and this is being accelerated by most nations to move away from energy alternatives which have a must higher pollution footprint.

In the western world we badly need to reshore our manufacturing to enable a balanced economy of resources manufacturing and services. Also, relocating manufacturing closer to these largest consumers will significantly reduce wasteful trade across oceans that will assist in cleaning up the over polluted oceans by the reduction of such duplicitous trade and the burning of such wasteful and dirty bunker fuel used by the container ships.

Further by ensuring populations as much as practical grow mine and make what they consume we will reduce pollution created through badly controlled manufacturing in poor countries and better force manufacturing to “clean up” rather than pollute its own consumers.

We must strive to continue to clear up this myth and ensure our governments get the story and the policies straight as the adoption of carbon taxes and energy restrictions that support the myth of manmade climate change will make it very difficult for prosperity to continue across the globe, with disastrous results for both mature and emerging economies.

"Moreover, there is now an opportunity – and an urgent need – to pursue deeper global cooperation on all of these fronts. The pandemic threatens to devastate developing and emerging economies..."

Patently true. But when I first went to school, back in the 1940s, I was encouraged to compete in games. When I was a little older I was encouraged to compete not only on the playing field but also in earning good grades. In later education it was the same, from extramural sources if not from within. In jobs of one sort and another I was encouraged to look forward to a higher and more remunerative position. In all my years on this planet, which is fortunate in many ways but unlucky in just as many, I have read about how high politicians goad one country into competing with another. Today there are politicians of rank, in some cases of reasonable intellect, who are persistent in advocating competition - while to some reflective writers it is readily apparent that what the world now needs, urgently if civilization is to survive, is magnanimous cooperation across borders.

Related to this state of affairs, while there other factors involved, is a salient aspect of what is today referred to persistently, even by accomplished economists, as "the economy". Without even a nod to etymology, "the economy" now denotes a toxic system devoted not to coexistence and to the enjoyment of this beautiful planet but to a handful of principles at variance with any desire for the future of human life. These include the pervasive generation of artificial demand, than which nothing could be more irrational; a fierce competitiveness, inculcated into children until they leave school and into the adult until he retires; the earnest search for oil, and the equally earnest promotion of its combustion; and tax regimes by means of which money in very large amounts is conveyed upward to those in control. As one of those many who might wish to be less pessimistic, I see nothing to suggest this state of affairs will change.

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