WASHINGTON — The F.B.I. agents who raided the office of President Trump’s personal lawyer on Monday were looking for records about payments to two women who claim they had affairs with Mr. Trump, and information related to the publisher of The National Enquirer’s role in silencing one of the women, several people briefed on the investigation said.

The search warrant carried out by the public corruption unit of the Manhattan federal attorney’s office seeks information about Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model who claims she carried on a nearly yearlong affair with Mr. Trump shortly after the birth of his son in 2006. Ms. McDougal was paid $150,000 by American Media Inc., The Enquirer’s parent company, whose chief executive is a friend of Mr. Trump’s.

Yeah, we've been discussing this some in the impeachment thread. It probably deserves its own thread due to its significance. If this leads to him actually firing Mueller and Rosenstein, I don't know how that could end in anything but impeachment.

I wonder how much they really needed to have to get the approval for the raid. It seems from reporting that there was a $130,000 payment made by Cohen out of a shell corporation which was questioned by bank investigators. Presumably the investigators asked Cohen about the source of funds and possibly the use of funds. If Cohen lied in those responses it seems the elements of the crimes of bank fraud and wire fraud have been shown. Being able to flush out this information through a raid, while perhaps heavy handed, is almost certainly being done with great care.

If this does not lead to any further information beyond the payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal (and perhaps a few more women), it is likely that this wouldn't be enough to bring down the presidency. But based on the statements of Senators Chuck Grassley and Bill Kennedy, it appears likely that if Trump were to fire Mueller, either directly or indirectly, there would be sufficient legislative support to either reinstate him as a true "independent" counsel, or to not only impeach, but also convict the President.

The question in my mind is "What other types of intermediate steps would be allowed by the institutional Republicans in the Senate?" Would they begin to act if Trump started to pardon some individuals, such as Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner or Hope Hicks? Would they allow him to fire Jeff Sessions and install an Attorney General who would seek to limit Mueller's investigation? I am not sure what their final stand will be.

I believe the House, despite its flame throwers, will not stand in the way of appropriate steps if the Senators signal their disapproval. If Trump goes over the edge I believe Speaker Ryan will act appropriately and allow a vote for impeachment to proceed, and that there will be at least 25 Republicans (more likely 75-100) that will do so. While this could cause Ryan his Speakership, I suspect that Ryan may not even seek re-election. More likely, if this extends into 2019, the House will be controlled by Democrats. At this point bringing impeachment would not be a problem, but I would hope that they don't do it unless they have fleshed out the case to the point that those institutional Republicans in the Senate will convict.

Yeah, we've been discussing this some in the impeachment thread. It probably deserves its own thread due to its significance. If this leads to him actually firing Mueller and Rosenstein, I don't know how that could end in anything but impeachment.

I wouldn't count on it.

_________________Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin

Wonder how Ryan's decision to not seek re-election will affect all this. Will he now distance himself from Trump and play the long game for a potential return to politics sometime and want the ability to point to his opposition to someome who will almost certainly be a political anchor in the future?

Wonder how Ryan's decision to not seek re-election will affect all this. Will he now distance himself from Trump and play the long game for a potential return to politics sometime and want the ability to point to his opposition to someome who will almost certainly be a political anchor in the future?

He shouldn't be able to distance himself. He has basically been Trump's right hand man. Couple that with it becoming very clear that he has no real constituency in the Republican party, and Paul Ryan is dunzo as a relevant figure.

CNN has finally come up with something that is very interesting. The Access Hollywood tape was released and first heard by the world at 4:03 PM EST.

Okay?

At 4:30 PM EST, 27 minutes later, Wikileaks posted the first of the Podesta/Clinton campaign emails that had been hacked into by the Russians.

Huh?

The FBI is said to have, in their raid of Cohen's office, specifically sought information regarding any communications to and from the Trump campaign ABOUT the Access Hollywood tape.

Hmm?

_________________Falsehood will fly on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps slow and solemn, she has neither the vigour nor activity to overtake her enemy. - Thomas Francklin

Wonder how Ryan's decision to not seek re-election will affect all this. Will he now distance himself from Trump and play the long game for a potential return to politics sometime and want the ability to point to his opposition to someome who will almost certainly be a political anchor in the future?

He shouldn't be able to distance himself. He has basically been Trump's right hand man. Couple that with it becoming very clear that he has no real constituency in the Republican party, and Paul Ryan is dunzo as a relevant figure.

Ryan will lay low for awhile, but he will be back as a pundit before the 2020 election. And I will be very surprised if he doesn't run for president in 2024, or at least carefully consider it. For all his talk about wanting to spend time with his kids, I believe he was concerned he would lose his seat, and if he did that would end his political future. By stepping aside now he can remove himself before the blue wave and look unsullied in six years. The question for him will be whether the Republican Party that reformulates after Trump is one in which he can still compete.

Wonder how Ryan's decision to not seek re-election will affect all this. Will he now distance himself from Trump and play the long game for a potential return to politics sometime and want the ability to point to his opposition to someome who will almost certainly be a political anchor in the future?

He shouldn't be able to distance himself. He has basically been Trump's right hand man. Couple that with it becoming very clear that he has no real constituency in the Republican party, and Paul Ryan is dunzo as a relevant figure.

Ryan will lay low for awhile, but he will be back as a pundit before the 2020 election. And I will be very surprised if he doesn't run for president in 2024, or at least carefully consider it. For all his talk about wanting to spend time with his kids, I believe he was concerned he would lose his seat, and if he did that would end his political future. By stepping aside now he can remove himself before the blue wave and look unsullied in six years. The question for him will be whether the Republican Party that reformulates after Trump is one in which he can still compete.

I think he will run at some point as well. I see support of Trump as an anchor for future runs though, much in the vein of Iraq, so that is why I was wondering if he will do his damnedest to get on the record as part of the Republican Resistance and hope people forget about his earlier pandering.