~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Week Seventeen Picks

Looking at the week’s line, and not being sure who will be playing is making picking games pretty hard, particularly as Dan had a stunning week sixteen and overhauled a four point deficit to go into this final week with a point lead.

Still, for the final time for this season, let’s go through full sixteen game slate.

Gee: Week 16 8-8 Overall 114-126
Dan: Week 16 13-3 Overall 115-125

Bill @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have limped into the end of the season with a horrible loss to the Patriots last week, and given their performances over recent weeks, I can’t see them winning this one at home, even if they are playing the inconsistent Bills. I don’t know what effect not having the Ryan brothers coaching, or EJ Manuel will have at quarterback, but in a competition where I can’t skip games, I’m backing the Bills to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Vikings lost against a surging Packers team last week and now host a Bears team who got their own drubbing last week. This feels like to many points for the Vikings to cover, but the Bears were horrible last week. It’s a hard one for me to predict, but my gut says this is too many points for a disappointing Vikings team.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Bears

Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Ravens got knocked out of the playoffs last week, but they are a consistent team that will be looking to cement a winning record and this could be Steve Smith’s final game in what has been an impressive career for the receiver. The Bengals keep teams close, but I find it hard to believe that they will win this one and I don’t believe they are the better team and so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Browns @ Steelers (-6.5)

With the news of the various players on offence that the Steelers are resting, I think that the Browns may well cover in this game. I’m going to look a fool if Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, or Antonio Brown do play, but under the circumstances I think that the rest makes sense and so the Browns follow up their first win of the season by covering. Hopefully…

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Cowboys @ Eagles (-2.5)

This is another game where starters could be rested as the Cowboys have secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They also travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team coming off an excellent win against the Giants the previous Thursday night. It’s a hard game to predict, but in the end I’m going to stick with the home team.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

The Titans not only were knocked out of the playoffs last week, but lost Marcus Mariota to a broken leg and it is hard to see them winning out in a game against a Texans team who really need to find a rhythm with recently promoted to starting quarterback Tom Savage leading the offence before the playoffs, whilst their defence has been good for most of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Jaguars @ Colts (-4.5)

This is a hard game to pick given that the Colts are coming off a close loss to the Raiders and a big win against the Vikings, whilst the Jaguars were beating the Titans even before Mariota was injured, but both teams have disappointed this year. In the end I’m not prepared to back the Jaguars on the back of one good game, and if I could stay away from this game I would, but as I can’t I’ll reluctantly chose the Colts to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Dolphins have a pretty good record against the Patriots in Miami, and this seems a surprisingly large line given that the Patriots have little to play for this week ahead of their bye and so I will join Dan in backing the Dolphins in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Panthers looked back to themselves for a small stretch this season, but Cam Newton has not been playing well and the loss of Luke Kuechly to concussion has hurt the defence a lot. The Buccaneers theoretically still have a chance to make the playoffs, but for all practical purposes they are eliminated, yet they will still want to win this one and at home they stand a fair chance. However, the big question is whether they can cover this line, and although their overall DVOA is pretty similar, the weighted by opponent ranking significantly improves for the Bucs and in the end I just have this feeling that they will.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Saints @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is another large line, but the Falcons have been playing well and against many teams might be good to cover it, however the Saints are coming into this game with their own two game winning streak. However, as good as Drew Brees has been, the Saints defence is likely to struggle to slow down the Falcons who can secure a bye with a win and in the end I think they will be too good for the Saints.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Raiders @ Broncos (-1.5)

The Broncos lie third in the competitive AFC West as both of last year’s Super Bowl teams failed to make the playoffs. Meanwhile the Raiders can secure a bye week with a win but sadly lost Derek Carr to a broken leg last week. I don’t know if backup Matt McGloin can get them the win or what the Raiders can do in the playoffs, but the Broncos have struggled on offence all season, and even their defence struggled last week. Coming into this game with a three game losing streak I find it hard to pick the Broncos and the Raiders need to prepare what they have for the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Chiefs @ Chargers (+5.5)

I am wary of this game as the Chargers won a prospective final game in San Diego last season when it seemed like they could be leaving, and it looks like they will be moving this year, but the team is just so injured and the Chiefs are a team with playoff seeding to play for. I could be wrong, but I do see the Chiefs continuing their excellent regular season run and covering this line.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Cardinals @ Rams (+6.5)

The Rams continued their losing streak against the 49ers despite having a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter, but they still struggle and it is hard to see them beating a Cardinals team who appear to be trying to finish strongly. An impressive season from David Johnson has not helped the Cardinals push for the playoffs, but they will want to avenge their week four loss. The line makes me worry, but there is a big difference in the DVOA figures between these teams that makes me think the Cardinals will cover, albeit slightly nervously.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Giants @ Washington (-7.5)

Washington needs to win this game to get in the playoffs, and the Giants have nothing to play for as they are locked into the fifth seed. The line makes me pause, but the offence of Washington has been playing very well for much of this season and if the Giants begin to rest their starters ahead of the playoffs I can see Washington covering this line. I’m changing my mind on this one, which is always dangerous, but under the circumstances and with the game being played in Washington, I think that Washington can and will cover.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Seahawks @ 49ers (+9.5)

This is another big line, and I find it hard to think that the Seahawks will definitely cover this one given the problems they have had on offence thanks to the injuries. In fact the Seahawks are limping into the playoffs having lost start safety Earl Thomas to injury, but that said the 49ers have lost to everyone bar the Rams in a season where they have really struggled. I want to pick the 49ers, but I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Packers @Lions (+3.5)

This is the big game of the week, with the winner getting into the playoffs. The Lions have faltered in recent weeks, whilst the Packers who were at 4-6 had Aaron Rodgers claim they would win out and are now only this game from doing just that. He has also played very well as the Packers won five straight and it does feel that the Packers have all the momentum coming into this one. A lot of the Lions success was built on last minute comebacks, but a 9-6 record belies their ranking of twenty-seventh by DVOA and in the end I can’t pick against the Packers in this game. I am really looking forward to seeing what happens though.