Power to the People: Taking on ‘Big Weather’ Together

Weather is the very definition of all-encompassing. (Unless you fancy a trip to Mars, which by the way, has it’s own atmospheric conditions.)

So, why not treat it that way? It makes sense that weather affects nearly everything we do. In a big data, mobile-centric world, businesses large and small would be at a disadvantage if they ignored the impact of weather.

While weather should be on everyone’s mind, there is little modern discussion about the accuracy of weather forecasts nor the significant impact that weather has on our global economies — how it influences international trade and shipping, energy consumption and even the stock market.

Meteorology itself has a lot of growing up to do. The 20th century concept of centralized weather observations is a relic of its usefulness in military applications. Most of the world’s working 30,000 some odd “official” weather stations (the ones that contribute their data to daily weather forecasts) are situated at airports. More than 80% of those stations are in the U.S. and Europe.

At last check, not many people (save one very special case in Russia) actually live at airports. Our current global weather observation network is outdated, and with the rise of grid-connected devices in everything from mobile phones to traffic cams, there is ample opportunity to make use of this data to improve forecasts worldwide, especially in BRIC countries.

Frankly, this is an industry in need of disruption. A big one.

Crowdsourced business models allow people around the globe to have a voice in forming more accurate depictions of business, from sourcing new ideas for a corporation, funding new projects online, and now: reporting more accurate traffic and weather conditions.

Earlier this year the crowdsourced traffic company Waze was acquired by Google for $1.1 Billion, validating the potential of this model and letting the industry know that the hive mind is big business. With any business, having access to more data points provides a clearer picture of how to best manage and allocate resources.

With so few weather stations in use around the globe, the ability to tap into the scale of people reporting from the ground gives industry an unprecedented view into new ways to provide accurate weather information for both consumers and businesses. In essence, anyone with a mobile device becomes a weather reporter, a weather station. Harnessing this weather data will lead to a conflict of little companies taking on “Big Weather.” Taking on the incumbents, the Golieths.

The idea here is simple: the more people that are excited enough to share their own weather reports from more locations around the world, the more accurate our knowledge of the Earth’s weather systems will be.

Since weather is constantly changing, meteorologists constantly need more and more weather data. Imagine a world in which millions of people across the world were collaborating in real time, channeling their current weather conditions to a forecasting supercomputer that could dynamically generate minute-by-minute predictions at the neighborhood level. Those weather models already exist, however, as data scientists lament: “garbage in means garbage out.” In other words, models are only as good as the data they’re fed. By expanding the density and frequency of weather observations 100-fold in the United States and Europe, and 1000-fold in developing countries, some amazing things start to happen.

What would that world look like? The result would be a resource that could help make homes more energy efficient (helping to slow the effects of climate change), safeguard communities during blizzards, hurricanes, and other extreme weather, help farmers the world over increase their crop yields, or even cause your umbrella handle to light up when a rainstorm is on the way.

To create 21st Century weather predictions, we need a 21st Century weather observation system. One that’s real people-powered and driven by curiosity and the beauty of the natural world. By combining social media networking tools with some behind-the-scenes data collection, pedestrians, light poles and delivery trucks could all be transformed into mobile weather stations that help to create truly hyper-local forecasts.

Imagine knowing — down to the second — when a gust of wind in the midst of a land-falling hurricane hitting a major coastal city would reach your house, snapping a tree branch and cutting off your power — by tracking its movement with hundreds of sensors along its path –- and, then having your house dynamically prepare in advance?

Or, could farmers in a country like India (where weather stations are sorely lacking) benefit from precise tracking of monsoon rains, allowing irrigation to adapt thereby conserving water from the dwindling Himalayan glaciers? Wherever people are, forecasts would become more accurate.

One definition of scientific research is “organized curiosity.” People have always been curious: Now technology is getting them better organized. That’s what crowdsourcing allows you to do: Organize your curiosity. Explore other people’s curiosity in other cultures around the world. And, harness that curiosity for the greater good. And better weather.

Eric Holthaus is Lead Meteorologist and Weather Editor for Weathermob, and the former Meteorologist at the Wall Street Journal.