This is something I do on pp.o occasionally, and since we are opening against the pack, I figure I would share it over here too. I make every attempt to be objective when I do these, so I expect Vikings fans to say I am giving the Packers too much credit, and the Packer fans will accuse me of wearing purple glasses. :)

I know there is one more preseason game before the opener, but let's be real. The 4th doesn't mean much. So I figured I am ready to throw my two cents into the ring for the opener. Feel free to disagree and pick apart anything that you want. The point of this post is to start a conversation regarding how select parts of the Vikings will fare against the Packers team they will face in two weeks.

Vikings Passing Defense vs Packers Passing OffenseEdge: None

For the Pack, Driver and Jennings can be difference makers, and even though Rodgers is new to the starting spot, this is his fourth year in the system. HOwever, the Packers OL is in a bad spot. Not only have they not given the QB any time so far in preseason, Scott Wells was also hampered by a torso injury throughout preseason. If he can't start, expect Spitz to continue to fill in at center. With the extent of Josh Sitton's knee injury still unknown, we could be looking at Barbre and Colledge as the two startign guards this year. If the OL was in better shape, the edge would go to the Packers here. But because of the OL, it is a tie.On the Vikings side, I am not going to cite Minnesota's last place ranking in total passing yards last year because that stat is skewed by the run defense. Sharper and Madieu Williams are still learning to work with each other, and they haven't been on the field together a lot in the preseason. Griffin is looking better, but still needs some polishing at the CB position. Jared Allen will definitely bring the pressure, and will get at least one sack. The Vikings easily have one of the best DLs in the league, and that should translate into a much better passing defense.

Vikings Rushing Defense vs Packers Rushing OffenseEdge: Vikings

Don't forget that Minnesota was the runaway #1 rushing defense from last year. However, the addition of Jared Allen to the Vikings DL changed the way that they attack the run. He uses a fundamentally different style than Udeze did, and his wide outside rush makes some gaps bigger. With that being said however, the Vikings are still fielding a very stout rushing D, and should have the edge here. Against the Steelers, the Vikings defense held the running game in check all game long.Last year for the Packers, Grant had a great game against the Vikings. In fact, he had a great second half of the season. Was he a one year wonder or something genuine? Hard to tell right now, since he held out of most of TC with a contract dispute, and has yet to touch the ball in preseason. Until he proves otherwise, I think he over performed last year, and will regress this year.

Vikings Passing Offense vs Packers Passing DefenseEdge: Packers

Tarvaris Jackson has looked good so far this year, but the limited time he has seen in preseason can't erase the fact that the Vikings passing offense was one of the worst in the NFL last year. Tjack hurt his knee in the second preseason game, which forced him to sit out the third. He will most likely be back for the season opener, but how much playing/practice time he will get in before that remains to be seen. The Vikings are counting on the continued maturation of TJack and Rice, as well as the addition of Berrian to make a difference. One substantial improvement to look for this year is the use of Adrian Peterson on passing plays. Last year his pass blocking skills left a LOT to be desired. He rarely was asked to pass block or run routes in college, and it showed at the NFL level. Every time AD was on the field, defenses knew that it was going to be a running play. That has changed this year, as AD spent much of the off season working in these areas. Look for the Vikings to be sporting a deadly play action this year.For the Packers, Kampman can still get to a QB, AJ Hawk is awesome on the weak side, and Woodson and Harris make a pretty good CB combo. However, Hawk is currently sidelined with a chest sprain and may be out for the opener. Harris was exposed during the NFC Championship game last year, but still brings a good game. Bigby rolled his ankle in the third preseason game, but will likely be back in time for the opener. The passing D is probably the Packers' strongest point in 2008.

Vikings Rushing Offense vs Packers Rushing DefenseEdge: Vikings

Adrian Peterson. Not much needs to be said. The Vikings are bringing back the most prolific running back duo in team history, with AD and Chester Taylor, and they are running behind that monster offensive line that is ideal for run blocking. Assuming the Vikings passing offense isn't horrible, they will be seeing fewer 8 and 9 man fronts, That will mean more big games for last year's offensive rookie of the year. Green Bay fans will likely fall back to last year and point out that AD was shut down even before his injury. While this is true, history shows that AD tends to be at his best in the 4th quarter. Peterson will be looking to redeem himself against the Packers this year, and barring injury (knock on wood) he stands a good chance to do so.The Packers rushing D isn't exactly a cake walk though. Johnny Jolly does a good job of plugging up the middle, and AJ Hawk seems to be everywhere. However, with Hawk's status for the opener in question, this boads well for the Vikings.

Special TeamsEdge: None

Not a lot to talk about in regards to the special teams. This is a night, outdoor game, which negates a lot of the kicking and punting advantages. Both teams have seen some nice returns in preseason - Jordy Nelson for the Packers looks good. But I won't give an edge here simply because there is not enough info to go on yet.

OverallSlight Edge: Vikings

It is very close. The Vikings should dominate the rushing game on both sides of the ball. Tjack will need to be more efficient in the passing attack, but he only needs to be average for the offense to be successful. So this game will be decided on how well Rodgers can run the passing attack. His first regular season start, a suspect OL, a revamped and fired up Vikings DL, and little kids in Fav-re jerseys swearing at him are all factors that will come into play. I think it will be a close game, decided by less than a TD, but in the end I think the Vikings will come away with the win. Vikings 21-17.

On the Vikings side, I am not going to cite Minnesota's last place ranking in total passing yards last year because that stat is skewed by the run defense.

Now I can't claim to have watched all the Vikings games so maybe you can shed some light on this matter - were opposing teams passing because they couldn't run the ball or were they passing because it was working so well, and hence not rushing as much against the Vikings?

On the Vikings side, I am not going to cite Minnesota's last place ranking in total passing yards last year because that stat is skewed by the run defense.

Now I can't claim to have watched all the Vikings games so maybe you can shed some light on this matter - were opposing teams passing because they couldn't run the ball or were they passing because it was working so well, and hence not rushing as much against the Vikings?

That is a fair question.

If you look at the average yards per pass completion, the Vikings were right in the middle - ranked #16. If you look at completion percentage, the Vikings ranked #27. Still not great, but considerably better than the last place yards per game stat implies.

If you do the same for the Vikings rushing D - look at the averages, the Vikings rushing D continues to remain at the top. Our 3.1 yards per rush average was bested only by the Ravens 2.8. Every other stat (forced fumbles, tackles for a loss, overall yards, etc) the Vikings are securely in the #1 spot. This is the second straight year that the Vikings have led the NFL in rushing D.

So a bottom 1/3 passing defense coupled with the #1 rushing defense... I think it was obvious to teams that it was going to be considerably easier to pass that it would be to run. So it isn't surprising that they would end up passing nearly twice as much as running.

VPD vs PDO - slight advantage to Vikings. Why? Our OL has looked bad, really bad, and Aaron will be pressed for time. I think we'll lose this one in the trenches.

VRD vs PRO - agreed with you.

VPO vs PPD - agreed with you.

VRO vs PRD - agreed with you.

STs - Packers advantage. Jordy will get us good field position, and our punt return units got us 2 TDs last year.

Coaching - Packers advantage. Mike McCarthy is a top tier Coach.

Overall - too close to call right now. I'm really worried about our OL, and especially you have the DL to exploit it, I realize your RBs are possibly the top tandem in the NFL, but your QB really sucks (sorry Nodak) and we have better coaching. We may get the field position advantage but you might eat the clock. This one can go either way. My prediction - the one who gets the most takeaways wins.

VPD vs PDO - slight advantage to Vikings. Why? Our OL has looked bad, really bad, and Aaron will be pressed for time. I think we'll lose this one in the trenches.

VRD vs PRO - agreed with you.

VPO vs PPD - agreed with you.

VRO vs PRD - agreed with you.

STs - Packers advantage. Jordy will get us good field position, and our punt return units got us 2 TDs last year.

Coaching - Packers advantage. Mike McCarthy is a top tier Coach.

Overall - too close to call right now. I'm really worried about our OL, and especially you have the DL to exploit it, I realize your RBs are possibly the top tandem in the NFL, but your QB really sucks (sorry Nodak) and we have better coaching. We may get the field position advantage but you might eat the clock. This one can go either way. My prediction - the one who gets the most takeaways wins.

Good call on addition coaching into the mix. I would agree that Mike McCarthy has the edge on Childress.

Most of what you said seems to be pretty accurate, and has only a slight amount of bias =) The only thing i would disagree with would be the special teams. We've got Will Blackmon healthy for the first time in a long while and he has some tallent, not to mention Tramon Williams and Jordy Nelson on kickoffs.

My biggest concern is getting the OL/DL healthy, if they go in banged up i see bad things happening. The vikings OL/DL has the tallent to really push the packers around if they're in there missing key starters.

Now having said all of that, the pack did beat the vikings quite convincingly twice last year, so i still take the pack by 7.

The Vikes' rushing D was #1 last year, but keep in mind that during the 34-0 drubbing, Grant had around 120 yds on the ground. I'd call that one a wash and I think we take the game due to our coaching edge, provided that Aaron isn't so jacked up for his first start that he stinks up the joint.

Isn't Madeiu Williams going to miss the first few weeks of the seasons? I thought I heard that somewhere, but if he is out will that rookie you guys got start?

Timeline on Madeiu is not official, but yeah, he will likely miss the first fee weeks with a neck injury. I did take that into account, but failed to mention it. (I meant to append the file that I had been working in, but forgot to) Basically I have seen so little of Williams at this point that I didn't know where to rank him, so I based a lot of my analysis on Tyrell Johnson's play so far.

The Vikes' rushing D was #1 last year, but keep in mind that during the 34-0 drubbing, Grant had around 120 yds on the ground. I'd call that one a wash and I think we take the game due to our coaching edge, provided that Aaron isn't so jacked up for his first start that he stinks up the joint.

This is true. But I think we can agree that that was the exception, not the rule, for the Vikings defense last year. And as I alluded, Grant has seen a grand total of zero practice or preseason time so far this season... Even if he is as good as the second half of the season indicates, that will have an impact.

I like Adrian Peterson, but I have to say that I am not as worried about the Vikings running game as I am basically any other team. Here are some preseason stats to think about if at least just a little.

In a list of running back rankings, it takes the Vikings all the way to rank number 69 to make an appearance with Albert Young. It is actually technically number 71 since it took more attempts than the two others who share the same rushing yards. Now I know AP hasn't gotten most of the reps, but I consider the blocking to be a major element not just the runner.

In this same ranking GB running backs appear at 51 with Brandon Jackson, 43 with Noah Herron, and 14 with Kregg Lumpkin.

So as far as run blocking goes, I am not sold on the Vikings having an advantage on us. I think you can say similar things about AP as you can say about Grant. AP's productivity starting falling as it seemed people were figuring him out. He has that big play ability but we also saw Grant tear away from the line and go the distance as well.

I also see an almost even slate at quarterback. I actually don't believe much of the negative talk surrounding Tarvaris Jackson going into this season. For his preseason stats, although his attempts are less than other teams, he has been efficient going for 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, and throwing for 11 first downs. I think he will have a good year this year if he keeps up this level of play. He has been smart and effective.

Where I think we go past the Vikings is actually our running game. I think we do better at surprising the Vikings than they do to us. A sort of we know what you guys are up to sort of thing. The Bears had our number in this department last season and it seemed judging by the stats that the Broncos similarly dissected us.

Pass defense with both our starters I also think is to our advantage. Our leaders in the secondary have never shown particularly well in the preseason, but they know when and how to turn it on.

I am going to be boring and say that I consider us even mostly due to the fact that we just seem to know each other so well as teams and we tend to go back and forth every time we play.

I agree with most of the original post but think it overstates the pass protection problems for the Packers. I think the pass protection will be fine and that Rodgers deserves a lot of the blame for holding the ball too long. He improved on that last week.

You can tell the performance of the Packers offense so far this year just by looking at Rodgers' feet and how long he holds the ball.

Good analysis Nodak!I believe Grant is the real deal, so i think we will be as good as we were last year against the Vikings.......IF our O line can do it's job that is.

I also think T-Jack will be better then he was last year as your QB. I think our special teams will be HUGE in this game though. I think it will give us a short field most of the time, and even get a return for a TD.I think it will be close, until the 4th quarter, where the Packers run away with it.I think we will win by 14.

I agree with most of the original post but think it overstates the pass protection problems for the Packers. I think the pass protection will be fine and that Rodgers deserves a lot of the blame for holding the ball too long. He improved on that last week.

You can tell the performance of the Packers offense so far this year just by looking at Rodgers' feet and how long he holds the ball.

Disagree. Yeah, some of the sacks were because he held the ball too long, but a few some defenders came in untouched, and that scares me. It especially scares me because the Vikes DL is sick. We're going to have to have some good blocking by our RBs.

I like Adrian Peterson, but I have to say that I am not as worried about the Vikings running game as I am basically any other team. Here are some preseason stats to think about if at least just a little.

In a list of running back rankings, it takes the Vikings all the way to rank number 69 to make an appearance with Albert Young. It is actually technically number 71 since it took more attempts than the two others who share the same rushing yards. Now I know AP hasn't gotten most of the reps, but I consider the blocking to be a major element not just the runner.

In this same ranking GB running backs appear at 51 with Brandon Jackson, 43 with Noah Herron, and 14 with Kregg Lumpkin.

So as far as run blocking goes, I am not sold on the Vikings having an advantage on us. I think you can say similar things about AP as you can say about Grant. AP's productivity starting falling as it seemed people were figuring him out. He has that big play ability but we also saw Grant tear away from the line and go the distance as well.

I also see an almost even slate at quarterback. I actually don't believe much of the negative talk surrounding Tarvaris Jackson going into this season. For his preseason stats, although his attempts are less than other teams, he has been efficient going for 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, and throwing for 11 first downs. I think he will have a good year this year if he keeps up this level of play. He has been smart and effective.

Where I think we go past the Vikings is actually our running game. I think we do better at surprising the Vikings than they do to us. A sort of we know what you guys are up to sort of thing. The Bears had our number in this department last season and it seemed judging by the stats that the Broncos similarly dissected us.

Pass defense with both our starters I also think is to our advantage. Our leaders in the secondary have never shown particularly well in the preseason, but they know when and how to turn it on.

I am going to be boring and say that I consider us even mostly due to the fact that we just seem to know each other so well as teams and we tend to go back and forth every time we play.

You can't look at preseason team stats and use it as a gauge for the regular season. Hell, Albert Young probably won't even make the team this year.

This logic is also flawed because the Vikings have focused primarily on passing during the preseason. In fact, during the first preseason game, they didn't run even once through the entire first quarter and most of the second. Mostly because their passing attack was horrible last year, and that is where they have the most work to do. Peterson has had less that 20 touches all preseason so far - he will most likely get more than that in a single game during the regular season.

In the trenches I like the Vikings better but if you look at the Packers spreading the field and going 3, 4, and 5 wide set, Minnesota doesn't match up very well. They don't have the corners and secondary that can go against the Packers passing game.

I guarantee you the Packers aren't going to be stupid and drop back and look for the deep ball. It's going to be a short passing attack. Much like in the first meeting between these two teams.

Two factors I believe aren't talked about enough with the Vikings.

1. Bryant McKinnie. Is he going to be suspended? Last I heard he was but I have to admit I haven't been following it and I dont know if it was made official. If so that is a huge loss for the Vikings.

Aaron Kampman will match up against Ryan Cook on the other side. That alone is a tough task. Minnesotas 2nd string tackle against maybe a KGB or Cullen Jenkins could prove to hurt them. They may have to pay more attention to that combination than they would of liked to have if they had McKinnie in there.

Quite frankly, I like Clifton up against Allen better than Cook against Kampman anyways.

2. Madieu Williams is probably going to be out. Who is starting? Tyrell Johnson. If so the Packers will exploit him. Hes a rookie and even though I like him, hes going to have his hands full back there.

I think the Packers passing attack has a slight edge over the Vikings pass defense. I don't think you cant take the 2nd best passing attack in the league last year versus one of the last in the league at stopping it a year ago and say the team that finished last is going to have an advantage. At the very least we might be looking at a draw pending who is out.

Couple of guys who could miss the game for the Pack and it would be a blow.

1. I think James Jones is a huge loss if the cant go for the Pack because Marcus McCaughly will have an easier time with Ruvell Martin than James Jones.

2. Ryan Pickett is out the Vikings will win the game. Pickett in my opinion is the most underrated player in the division. He doesn't get enough credit he deserves.

I also think the pass protection problems the Packers have won't be as bad as people think. It's like I was saying with short passes.

Minnesota is the type of team you beat with short passes. McCarthy will do that and it will make up for any protection problems. The Vikings may want to blitz the Packers because I think Rodgers has a harder time reading the blitz right now than anything. I'd bring Leber all day.

Also people forget the Packers were 7-1 at home last year. they've beaten Minnesota the last four times. McCarthy hasn't loss versus the Vikings. He has Childress' number right now. The two teams are so close that actually could be a deciding factor.

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