000
FXUS64 KSHV 031800
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
.AVIATION...
FINALLY THE EGG HAS CRACKED W/ BREAKS ALONG I-30 IN NE TX. OF COURSE
THIS WILL MEAN AMENDMENTS TO FRESH TAFS...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
NO HELP AND PLANNED TO AMEND FOR SHWRS ANYWAY. LIFR/IFR SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A TIME THIS P.M. WITH IFR BACK BY 06Z.
ATTM...OUR SFC WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT SE OR EVEN CALM ALONG OUR NE
PERIMETER FM KTXK TO KMLU. KLFK HAS A LOW CIG...BUT VSBY IS NOT AN
ISSUE W/ 10KTS. ALOFT...OUR LL WINDS ARE SW 20KTS OFF THE DECK
INCREASING 40KTS BY FL100. COLD FRONT NEAR KTYR/KTXK BY 04/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOG SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DELAY THE WARM UP THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST ZONES. VISIBILITY MOST LOCATIONS HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH THAT
AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY WAS NOT NECESSARY.
POPS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH TODAY...SO WILL LOWER KEEPING ALL AREAS TO ONLY
A CHANCE. SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
/14/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE COOL GROUND CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED ALL AREAS IN THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM.
EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S AND 70S. HOWEVER...CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER THIS THIS SYSTEM.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
COOLING AIR COLUMN. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTH LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAIN
IMPACTS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SLEET
AND SNOW DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR
SINKS SOUTH.
ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH MAY BE PLACED IN AN ADVISORY AT A
LATER FORECAST ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 61 66 31 40 / 30 40 90 80 20
MLU 69 61 71 30 37 / 30 40 80 80 20
DEQ 56 47 48 25 41 / 40 80 90 60 10
TXK 62 54 56 27 39 / 30 70 90 80 10
ELD 64 59 62 28 37 / 30 50 90 90 10
TYR 63 57 60 28 41 / 30 60 90 70 10
GGG 67 59 65 31 41 / 30 50 90 80 20
LFK 73 63 69 33 43 / 30 40 80 80 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-014.
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ097-112.
&&
$$
24/14/05