2018 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Free Picks & Odds

A fun week on the PGA Tour gives way to another fun week on the PGA Tour. The Waste Management Phoenix Open certainly didn’t disappoint, but a very strong field will tee it up this week at Pebble Beach Resort for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Three courses are actually in play, as the players and their famous partners will look to conquer Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club.

This is an enormous event. There are 156 pros and 156 amateurs. That is the main reason why three different courses are needed. The top 60 plus ties will advance to Sunday, but players in the top 70 plus ties will get money and FedEx Cup points because the field is thinned more than usual. The list of celebs and athletes includes Wayne Gretzky (playing with son-in-law Dustin Johnson), Aaron Rodgers, Larry Fitzgerald, BILL F*CKING MURRAY, Ray Romano, Tony Romo, Darius Rucker, Alex Smith, and Justin Verlander.

As far as players, Rory McIlroy is playing this event for the first time and he’ll be alongside players like DJ, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, and Paul Casey. This is a great event at one of the more picturesque courses in the United States. Things start to get more serious after this, with next week’s Genesis Open at Riviera, which often draws a big crowd, the Honda Classic, the first WGC event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the WGC Match Play, and the Masters.

Course form is a tough thing to handicap in this event because three courses are in use. All three courses measure under 7,000 yards, though, so this is an event that can be won by some of the more precise players as opposed to the heavy hitters. Pebble Beach is actually the shortest of the three courses, but the most difficult. Coastal winds can sometimes be a problem and we’ve had a wide variety of winning scores in this tournament.

Five players are clearly at the top of the board this week per the odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Dustin Johnson is the favorite at +585 to win for the third time in this event. DJ’s wins came in 2009 and 2010, so it has been a while for him here. Johnson hasn’t played since winning the Tournament of Champions. He’s got three top-10 finishes to his name between the PGA Tour and the European Tour. He finished third last year and tied for fourth three years ago, so he has to be considered a prominent factor this week.

Jon Rahm is +910 this week. Rahm struggled with an opening-round 73 last year as he got acclimated to this unique format, but finished tied for fifth after going 67-67-68 the rest of the way. He struggled at TPC Scottsdale on Sunday, but remains a threat to win every event. His Sunday 72 really hurt, as he fell down to 11th, but he’s played really well overall so far this season.

Jason Day seems to be back on track. His win at the Farmers Insurance Open in a long playoff showcased some of the old Jason Day. He was unflappable in the playoff and really earned it with five extra holes. Still, at +1010, the price isn’t quite right this week.

Rory McIlroy is also +1010 for his first career appearance at this event. After two spectacular finishes in the Middle East, Rory will come stateside to get prepared for the Masters. Given how well he played at the Dubai Desert Classic and Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, he’s worth a stab this week.

So is Jordan Spieth at +1110. Spieth is the reigning champion and this kind of event seems to suit him. It is a shorter course, which levels the playing field between him and the other elite players. It was almost a wire-to-wire job for Spieth, who won by four shots for the largest margin of victory here since 2009. If you want the favorites, Rory and Spieth are the guys.

Pat Perez at +3500 is an interesting name. Perez hasn’t played a whole lot of the early events, which is quite unique for him. He generally plays most of these California and desert events. Perez has a win this season already and two additional top-five finishes. He won the CIMB Classic and was fifth the next week. He was fourth at the Tournament of Champions. He’s taken about a month off, so the 41-year-old should be ready to get back at it this week. He was fourth three years ago and cracked the top 15 last year and in 2014.

Another +3500 shot this week is Brandt Snedeker. The 37-year-old is a two-time winner of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Sneds played pretty well over all the Phoenix Open, but just couldn’t make enough putts. It was certainly a better showing than the previous week at Torrey Pines. Snedeker has had some consistency issues, but this is a course that he appears plenty comfortable with playing, so the +3500 price tag is worth some consideration.

Those looking for long shots have a lot of possibilities. Because of the variety of the three courses in play, we don’t have a ton of players that have consistently finished high outside of the notables mentioned above. Somebody like Vaughn Taylor, the 2016 champ, is +12500 at 5Dimes, so maybe he’s a player to throw a bit of beer money on. Same thing with Luke Donald at +20000, who had a 69 and a 65 last year sandwiched between two pieces of stale bread on Thursday and Sunday.

Coverage of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be on Golf Channel and CBS throughout the tournament.

Odds as of February 5, 3 p.m. ET:

Dustin Johnson +585

Jon Rahm +910

Jason Day +1010

Rory McIlroy +1010

Jordan Spieth +1110

Gary Woodland +2200

Phil Mickelson +2800

Paul Casey +2800

Patrick Reed +3300

Pat Perez +3500

Patrick Cantlay +3500

Brandt Snedeker +3500

Matt Kuchar +3500

Branden Grace +4000

Adam Scott +5000

Chesson Hadley +5000

Chez Reavie +5000

Kevin Chappell +5000

Kevin Kisner +5000

J.B. Holmes +6000

Shane Lowry +6000

Rafa Cabrera-Bello +6000

Beau Hossler +6600

Bryson DeChambeau +7000

Austin Cook +7000

Charley Hoffman +7000

James Hahn +7000

Jason Kokrak +8000

Kevin Streelman +8000

Bubba Watson +8000

Chris Kirk +8000

Scott Piercy +9000

Paul Dunne +9000

Russell Henley +9000

Russell Knox +9000

Graeme McDowell +10000

Billy Horschel +10000

Jerry Kelly +11000

Jimmy Walker +11000

Nick Watney +11000

Steve Stricker +12500

Tom Hoge +12500

Vaughn Taylor +12500

Brian Gay +12500

Brandon Harkins +14000

William McGirt +14000

Grayson Murray +15000

Matt Jones +16000

Maverick McNealy +16000

Nick Taylor +16000

Robert Garrigus +16000

Ryan Armour +17500

Stewart Cink +17500

Scott Stallings +17500

Julian Suri +17500

Luke Donald +20000

Hunter Mahan +20000

Cameron Davis +20000

Brian Stuard +20000

Aaron Baddeley +20000

Aaron Wise +20000

Seamus Power +20000

Sean O’Hair +20000

Rory Sabbatini +20000

Sam Saunders +20000

Padraig Harrington +20000

Corey Conners +22500

Jonas Blixt +22500

J.T. Poston +25000

Martin Piller +25000

Ben Martin +25000

Patrick Rodgers +25000

Robert Streb +25000

Scott Brown +25000

Talor Gooch +25000

Vijay Singh +25000

Trey Mullinax +27500

Ben Silverman +27500

Chris Stroud +27500

Cody Gribble +27500

David Hearn +27500

Cameron Tringale +30000

Daniel Summerhays +30000

Brice Garnett +30000

Bronson Burgoon +30000

Abraham Ancer +30000

Andrew Putnam +30000

Mackenzie Hughes +30000

Keith Mitchell +30000

Kelly Kraft +30000

Nate Lashley +30000

Tyrone Van Aswegen +30000

Ted Potter, Jr. +30000

Ricky Barnes +30000

Rob Oppenheim +30000

Ryan Blaum +30000

Tom Lovelady +32500

Shawn Stefani +32500

Cameron Percy +32500

Derek Fathauer +32500

Colt Knost +35000

Alex Cejka +35000

Ben Crane +35000

Lanto Griffin +35000

Stephan Jaeger +35000

Richy Werenski +35000

Whee Kim +40000

Tyler Duncan +40000

Zac Blair +40000

Johnson Wagner +40000

J.J. Henry +40000

Jim Herman +40000

Jonathan Byrd +40000

Nicholas Lindheim +40000

Charlie Beljan +40000

Ernie Els +40000

Sang-Moon Bae +45000

Sam Ryder +50000

Rick Lamb +50000

Xinjun Zhang +50000

Rod Pampling +50000

Dominic Bozzelli +50000

Eric Axley +50000

Brett Stegmaier +50000

Adam Schenk +50000

Jonathan Randolph +50000

Matt Every +50000

Ken Duke +50000

K.J. Choi +50000

Kyle Thompson +60000

Angel Cabrera +60000

Conrad Shindler +60000

Denny McCarthy +60000

Fabian Gomez +60000

George McNeill +60000

Shane Bertsch +60000

Steve Wheatcroft +60000

Peter Malnati +60000

Troy Merritt +75000

Will Zalatoris +75000

Greg Chalmers +75000

D.A. Points +75000

Billy Hurley III +75000

Matt Atkins +75000

Joel Dahmen +100000

Jason Bohn +100000

Mike Weir +100000

Brendon De Jonge +100000

Andrew Yun +100000

David Duval +100000

Ethan Tracy +100000

Derek Ernst +100000

David Solomon +100000

Zecheng Dou +100000

Roberto Diaz +100000

Peter Jacobsen +100000

-END OF 2018 PREVIEW-

Historic Pebble Beach will be the site of this weekend’s PGA Tour event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This is an enormous field and one of golf’s most entertaining events, as professionals are paired with amateurs, sometimes celebrities, for a shot at the $7 million prize pool. The professional that picks up the win will also get 500 FedEx Cup points. This is the best field for a PGA Tour event to date, with Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson, and reigning champion Brandt Snedeker. In all, 12 of the top 25 players in Official World Golf Ranking are expected to take some swings this weekend. Another unique element about this event is that the cut comes after 54 holes.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is certainly the most prestigious of the three tracks in play this weekend, but Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula are nothing to scoff at. Pebble Beach is often considered one of the most beautiful coasts in the world, though its proximity to the water can create some interesting wind conditions and rain can sometimes be a factor. Errant tee shots become residents of the Pacific Ocean and this course boasts some of the most challenging par 3s in professional golf.

Spyglass Hill weaves and winds through the Del Monte Forest to provide a much different set of obstacles. This Robert Trent Jones design plays the longest of the three courses this weekend and, like Pebble Beach, is a par 72. Monterey Peninsula is the second-oldest of the three courses and plays with the lowest par at 70. This course returned to the rotation in 2010 after players voiced concerns about nearby Poppy Hills and the drainage problems.

This is a star-studded field of PGA Tour players, but it is also a literal star-studded field. Among the celebrities teeing it up this week are Mark Wahlberg, Toby Keith, Wayne Gretzky, Bill Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Timberlake, Kenny G, Huey Lewis, Andy Garcia, Ray Romano, Josh Duhamel, Aaron Rodgers, Alex Smith, and Jake Owen. Wahlberg will be paired with Bubba Watson. Dustin Johnson will play with father-in-law Wayne Gretzky. Jordan Spieth played with Jake Owen last year.

This is a fun event, but there’s also a lot on the line for the professionals. Jordan Spieth is the betting odds favorite at 5Dimes Sportsbook, which comes as no surprise. Spieth is +500, which leaves basically no betting value. Spieth tied for seventh here last year, but that 16-under score was six shots off the pace of winner Brandt Snedeker. Spieth tied for fourth at 8-under in 2014, so he has played well on these courses in the past. But, that’s not a surprise, because he plays well on a lot of courses.

The second favorite is the second-highest-ranked player in the field and that is Jason Day. Day, +800, tied for fourth here last year, but things could have gone a lot differently. Day shot an opening round 72, but fired a second-round 62 to get into contention. A solid weekend led to a tie for fourth and over $280,000 for his efforts. Day was cut after 54 holes in 2014, but he finished sixth in 2013. There’s not a whole lot of betting value here, but Day has done well on these courses in the past.

Dustin Johnson is a two-time winner at Pebble Beach and checks in at +1000 this weekend. Johnson won back-to-back times in 2009 and 2010. He tied for fourth last season and was the runner-up in 2014, one shot behind winner Jimmy Walker. Johnson was cut in 2013, but that may have been near the start of his substance abuse issues. This is a track that Johnson has played extremely well on, so there could be some value in this price.

Speaking of two-time winners, Brandt Snedeker’s name hits the odds board at +1200. Snedeker absolutely blew the field away last year with a 22-under 265. He had one bogey all weekend. Snedeker is hoping to become the sixth back-to-back champion and just the second golfer to win three times in four years. Snedeker played relatively well last week at TPC Scottsdale, but his third-round 74 took him out of the hunt. He finished tied for 33rd. Among the top four on the odds board, he is the only one that played last week.

Bubba Watson didn’t make many friends last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after some negative words about the course, but he is a +1600 shot to win this week. Watson has never played this event, but actor and friend Mark Wahlberg twisted his arm enough to get him to join in. Watson tied for 14th last week, but finished his event with a 66 to get something positive rolling into this weekend.

One name to watch this week is Phil Mickelson. Mickelson is +2500 at 5Dimes to pick up his fifth career win in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Lefty won in 1998, 2005, 2007, and 2012. He fought with consistency last week at TPC Scottsdale and eventually finished tied for 11th, but Mickelson went through a swing overhaul in the offseason and seems to be getting closer to snapping that longstanding drought. Mickelson could put it together in this event, which he has done several times before.

In terms of long shots worth a wager, Kevin Na has played well here in the past. Na checks in at +4000 with a tie for fourth in 2014. He missed the cut last year after a third-round 75, but swung it relatively well in the first two rounds. Pat Perez quietly plays well at Pebble Beach. This weekend, Perez is a +15000 shot. Perez tied for fourth last year, right alongside Jason Day and Dustin Johnson. He tied for seventh the previous year. He opened with a couple of 69s in 2013 before a third-round 72 spelled the end. He was also the runner-up in 2002. There’s a lot of value in him this week.

Golf Channel and CBS will provide coverage of one of the most enjoyable non-major events on the PGA Tour calendar.

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