'Big hill for Republicans to climb,' but it's possible, pollster says

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WASHINGTON — Voters strongly favor Democratic candidates over Republicans in the Nov. 7 congressional election and harbor growing doubts about the Iraq war and the country’s future, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Two weeks before voters decide which party controls the U.S. Congress, Republicans trail Democrats among independents and are still struggling to shore up their base conservative supporters, the poll found.

Democrats have an 11-point edge, 44 percent to 33 percent, when voters are asked which party’s candidate they will support, up slightly from a 9-point lead in the last Reuters/Zogby poll a month ago.

The increase is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Independents favor Democrats by 12 points, and just 56 percent of self-identified conservatives and 68 percent of Republicans say they will vote for the Republican candidate. About 81 percent of Democrats plan to support the Democratic candidate, the poll found.

Large majorities give President Bush and the Republican-led Congress negative marks for their job performance and think the country is on the wrong track.

Public dissatisfaction with Bush, the Iraq war and the country’s direction has helped threaten Republican control of Congress in the election, when Democrats must pick up 15 seats in the House of Representatives and six in the Senate to claim power.

19 percent undecidedThe poll found more than 19 percent of voters are still undecided about their congressional vote. That gives Republicans an opportunity for improvement, but time is running out to change the prevailing public mood.

“There is no question Republicans are in trouble. There is also no question a lot of races remain competitive,” pollster John Zogby said. “But it’s a big hill for Republicans to climb and it’s getting very late.”

The poll found 36 percent of voters thought Bush’s job performance was excellent or good, down from 42 percent a month ago. The job rating for Congress remained the same, with 23 percent calling it excellent or good.

Doubts about the war and the country’s future grew since the last poll in late September. The new survey found 57 percent believe the war in Iraq is not worth the loss of lives, up from 53 percent, and 57 percent believe the country is on the wrong track, up slightly from 55 percent.

Only 22 percent said it was likely their vote would be affected by the scandal, while 74 percent said it was unlikely.

13 issues surveyedDemocrats are favored to do a better job on nine of 13 issues surveyed, including ethics, foreign policy and immigration. Republicans have an 8-point edge on battling terrorism and smaller leads on taxes and stopping the global spread of nuclear weapons.

The war in Iraq has dominated the election debate, with Bush and Republicans on the defensive amid calls for a change in course. Bush defended his policy again on Wednesday, saying “we cannot allow our dissatisfaction to turn into disillusionment about our purpose in this war.”

But the poll found about 50 percent of likely voters believe U.S. troops should be pulled out of Iraq by the end of next year, including 15 percent who favor an immediate withdrawal and 20 percent who want out by mid-2007.

The survey found 41 percent agree with the statement that troops should remain “until the situation is stable.”

While Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has taken heavy criticism for his handling of the Iraq war, the poll found 49 percent of voters disagree that he should be fired while 42 percent want him out.

On North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, 56 percent of voters do not believe the United States should act militarily to stop Pyongyang, while 35 percent support military action.

With the holidays approaching, more than 60 percent of voters said they would spend about the same amount of money. Nearly a quarter, 23 percent, said they would spend less and 14 percent plan to spend about the same.

The national poll of 1,013 likely voters was taken Friday through Monday.