Already a member?

Puerto Rico: The Good, the Bad … and the Ugly Truth

Next to
Detroit
, the municipal entity I receive the most questions about is
Puerto Rico - and rightly so. Puerto Rico faces economic and
fiscal challenges unlike those in any state; and because Puerto
Rico bonds are exempt from federal, state and local taxes in all
50 states, they are very
widely held
.

The situation in Puerto Rico can hardly be encapsulated in a
single blog post, but I wanted to point out a few key
considerations (good and bad) and offer some suggestions for
investors.

The bad news on Puerto Rico has been
well publicized
, so I'll start there.

The Bad

Deep debt:
The Commonwealth has a significant amount of debt. In fact, the
amount of debt relative to the island's gross national product
(GNP) is roughly 85%. Compare that to the worst state, which is
closer to 9%. Puerto Rico simply does not have the money to cover
its bills. The gap in the general fund budget has ballooned to
approximately $2 billion for fiscal year (FY) 2013.

Shallow economy:
Puerto Rico also has a narrow economy that has been in a
recession since 2006. Unemployment has been above 10% since the
start of that recession and currently is just above 14%. The tax
base is not at all healthy, housing affordability is worse than
most places on the continent and costs on the island are high.
Consider that power costs roughly 26 cents per kilowatt there vs.
just 9 cents for the U.S. states, and the island still has the
burden of complying with U.S. Clean Air laws.

Pension pain:
Perhaps the number one issue in Puerto Rico relates to pension
liabilities and lack of funding. The island's three major pension
systems are funded at less than 10% today; the U.S. average is
about 73% and the worst state (Illinois) is approximately
43%.

The Good

Not bad … vs. sovereigns:
Puerto Rico's debt numbers look pretty dire compared to U.S.
states, but they are not much different from other sovereign
entities, including the United States.

Genuine effort:
The new administration in Puerto Rico has been very active in
proposing measures and taking steps to free up liquidity and to
ease the ailing pension system. In fact, we would award the
island a solid "B" on its efforts to fix its finances.
Policymakers have made changes to the pension system, raised
existing taxes and created new ones to the tune of potential
billions in future revenues.

The effort has been impressive, but may be a case of too
little too late. Given the fiscal hole that exists and the lack
of impetus for economic revival, it will be difficult to move the
dial in a meaningful way.

The Ugly Truth

Junk rating in waiting?:
Puerto Rico's
general obligation (GO)
debt is currently rated BBB- by the agencies, still investment
grade. The market sees it another way (as evidenced by the
very high borrowing costs
being imposed for market access). Based on market pricing, the
implied rating is arguably already below investment grade.

Downgrade damage:
Ultimately, a downgrade to "
junk
" by the agencies will mean more forced selling, as
investment-grade portfolios are required to sell down their
non-investment-grade exposure to remain within investment
parameters.

Despite a recent uptick, the Puerto Rico index is down more
than 15% year-to-date. A downgrade could result in additional
loss in value - or worse, a deterioration in liquidity that would
make it difficult to get out of Puerto Rico bonds.

What's an Investor to Do?

Puerto Rico debt recently rallied as some investors appear to
believe the worst has passed. However, the underlying
fundamentals have not changed, and that will likely be
acknowledged again by the market. Until then, the recent strength
might present an opportunity for investors to pare back their
exposure.

More broadly, we suggest investors keep an eye on their mutual
funds. Morningstar estimates roughly 77% of U.S. muni bond funds
hold Puerto Rico-related debt. Given the triple-tax-exempt nature
of Puerto Rico bonds, they are popular in national and
state-specific funds. Ensure that any of these types of
portfolios you may own do not contain a level of exposure higher
than your comfort zone.

Above all, as I've said before,
credit research
is critical. There are big disparities across credits and
issuers, even in Puerto Rico. Knowing what you own can make all
the difference between success and failure in the muni market
today.

Peter Hayes, Managing Director, is head of BlackRock's
Municipal Bonds Group and a regular contributor toThe Blog.You can find more of his postshere.

Please note that once you make your selection, it will apply to all future visits to NASDAQ.com.
If, at any time, you are interested in reverting to our default settings, please select Default Setting above.

If you have any questions or encounter any issues in changing your default settings, please email isfeedback@nasdaq.com.

Please confirm your selection:

You have selected to change your default setting for the Quote Search. This will now be your default target page;
unless you change your configuration again, or you delete your
cookies. Are you sure you want to change your settings?