So it’s time once again for me to gaze into my crystal ball before the premiere and try to take a wild (but educated) guess at how things are gonna pan out this season – who’s gonna be good, who’s gonna be bad, who’s gonna stick around, and who might get sent packing early. Admittedly, this kind of snuck up on me – after my prolonged hiatus after season 15, season 16 seems to have arrived at breakneck speed and I’m just struggling to keep up. Guess that’s what happens when one bad season turns you off of a show completely…don’t know that I’ve been this dubious about a new season of my favorite show since season 5 of Nip/Tuck 😯

For those just tuning in, a few words of explanation about how I arrive at these rankings. It’s a combination of factors – how good (or bad) of a dancer I think they’ll be, how much of a fanbase I think they do or don’t have, how likeable/unlikeable I think they’ll be to viewers. So all those factors considered – this is how I predict the eliminations to shake out. And they can (and usually do) change after seeing the first episode 😛 So in today’s edition, I tackle the bottom half of the couples: the ones I don’t see lasting past the middle of the competition. Here we go…

12.) Lisa & Gleb – It pains me to say this, considering that they’re my favorite couple, but I’m afraid my favorite Real Housewife of Beverly Hills may be the first on the chopping block this season 🙁 There seems to be several factors working against them – and the one that concerns me the most is the fact that Lisa’s a reality star, and she’s a Real Housewife at that. Considering that TPTB have avoided casting from that franchise like the plague until now, and that the Housewives seem to be some of the more maligned reality tv stars amongst DWTS fans (some DWTS fans reeeeeallllly don’t like Housewives – trust me, I’ve gotten tweets complaining, as if I have any control over casting!), I’m worried that some viewers have already written her off, sight unseen. Then again, I could be completely wrong – since we have no precedent for a Real Housewife on DWTS, how do I know that RHOBH fans won’t tune in and vote in droves for our British lass? 🙂 They’re also contending with the fact that Gleb is a brand new pro without much of a fanbase (and without the benefit of being visible to the DWTS viewers already, a la Sharna in the troupe or Lindsay on SYTYCD) – although I daresay Gleb’s stunning good looks certainly don’t seem to be hurting them 😉 Besides those two hurdles, I also worry that they’re just too laid back – their rehearsals are neither memorably good nor memorably bad, which could make them blend into the woodwork amongst some of the bigger personalities this season. And we don’t really have any idea what Lisa’s dancing prowess is like, nor do we know what Gleb’s teaching/choreographing prowess is like – they could be really good, they could be really bad, they could just “be”. I’m hoping that we’re in for a pleasant surprise with these two, but my gut’s telling me that they’re probably not going to make it past the first few weeks of the season.

11.) Victor & Lindsay – Another very laid-back, drama-free couple that is very likeable – but it’s another one that I’m just very, very uncertain about how much of a voting fanbase they have. I’m afraid that all three of the new pros are probably in for an uphill battle against some of the more established pros this season, and while I think Lindsay may have a slight edge over Gleb due some of her SYTYCD fanbase that has carried over, I think she may also struggle simply due to her youth – even Chelsie struggled with choreography and really finding her identity as a teacher for her first few seasons on the show. Judging from the video I saw of she & Victor’s rehearsal, she seems to be very patient and willing to work hard, but maybe doesn’t quite know how to vocalize to Victor what she’s wanting him to do – and that communication problem could be a hurdle for them this season. Another possible hurdle? Victor’s boxing fanbase. Now admittedly, I don’t follow professional boxing, aside from the occasional pay-per-view Pacquiao fight that a friend pays for and invites me to watch, but from what I undestand, interest in it seems to be dwindling – gone are the days of Ali, Foreman, Holyfield, & Leonard, and boxing seems to be fighting a losing battle against MMA & UFC in terms of viewership. So right off the bat, I’m wondering about the boxing fanbase – and once you take into consideration that, aside from Laila Ali (who was also just a great dancer), no boxer that has done DWTS has been able to last past week 4, I’m seriously skeptical about how many fans Victor is going to have tuning in to vote for him, right off the bat. However, Victor does seem to be enthusiastic and willing to work hard, and he & Lindsay do seem to get along quite well – and they both seem like very happy, likeable people at that, so they may stand a chance if they can get viewers to like them enough to vote for them, right out of the gate. But when I say right out of the gate, I mean it – because if any of the couples I have listed in the bottom half of this ranking aren’t able to stand out in week 1, I doubt they’ll last past week 2. This is not the season to be fading into the woodwork!

10.) Andy & Sharna – Yes, Andy has probably alienated a lot of people with some of his past transgressions – but thankfully, he seems to be taking more of a nod from Steve-O (who managed to charm DWTS viewers enough to last till week 6 of his season), than he is from the Hoff (who made a complete fool of himself and was eliminated in week 1). He seems really eager to do well, and really eager to learn – and best of all, eager to grow as a person. And that sense of redemption could be the key to Andy lasting past the first few weeks of this season – if he and Sharna can come out swinging in week 1 with a really good dance that makes people sit up and say “Wow – this is a whole different Andy Dick!”. Even if Andy maybe isn’t the best dancer – if they can show that he’s a good guy who’s really trying, I think they can eek out at least a few weeks on the show. After that, though – it gets dicey. Sharna at least comes into the partnership with somewhat of a fanbase from her 3 seasons in the troupe, but I’m just not sure about Andy – as he said himself, he’s alienated a lot of people with his drug-fueled antics in the past, and I’m not sure who exactly he has voting for him. I’m sure VFTW will try to take some credit if he sticks around, but I honestly don’t know that he’s got much of a fanbase going into the show…guess we’ll see if the redemption arc works for him, and if he can get some sympathy votes from the same people who were moved by Steve-O’s growth. I just hope he isn’t the first to go – he seems so eager to grow, that I think a first week elim may devastate him. Like David Arquette, who was also a recovering addict when he did the show, I always worry that they’re going to “hang their hat” on DWTS to help them redeem themselves, and when it doesn’t work out…they get despondent. Part of Andy seems very fragile & vulnerable to me – I just hope that his determination wins out and we get to see him for a few weeks.

9.) D.L. & Cheryl – I think the only reason I don’t have these two going home first or second is because of Cheryl’s fanbase – because from what I’ve seen of D.L. so far, I’ve gotten the impression that he’s not particularly invested in the show, and has a tendency to rub some people the wrong way. I just don’t see D.L. being the type that’s super-enthusiastic and willing to work hard this season – but then again, I said the same thing about Rob Kardashian, and he ended up getting 2nd place on his season. Who knows. I am a bit dubious about D.L.’s fanbase, though – it’s been quite awhile since The Hughleys was on the air, and I can’t really recall anything super “mainstream” he’s done lately that would get people voting for him. He, like Victor (and Lisa, and Andy) is someone whose fanbase is a big question mark to me – he may have a lot of voters, he may only have a few voters. I have no clue. However, Cheryl has proven season after season that she can take a partner far further than anyone may have initially expected – even when she maybe isn’t 100% invested in them. My gut says her partnership with D.L. is probably going to go more the route of her partnership with Chris Jericho, whom she got along with but never seemed to really connect with – and I think that’s even being optimistic, because Chris was at least willing to work hard…I don’t really get the same vibe from D.L. All in all, I doubt these two will make it to the halfway mark of the season, and will probably be one of this season’s more forgettable partnerships.

8.) Wynonna & Tony – I know some people are already comparing this partnership to Kirstie & Maks’, but I don’t see Wynonna being nearly as outgoing and wacky as Kirstie was – and I see Tony more as the type to politely smile & nod at any of Wynonna’s potential actics, rather than actually playing off of them like Maks did with Kirstie, so I’m not sure that the kooky, endearing bond card is going to be one they can play. And I worry that, despite what seems to be a good amount of motivation to get fit & do well, Wynonna may be one of the weaker dancers this season – judging from their rehearsal vid, she seems a bit reluctant to let go and come out of her shell, and may be an awkward mover. But like Kirstie, her fanbase will probably save her for at least the first few weeks, even if she’s not great – so while someone like Lisa or Andy with a flimsy fanbase maybe can’t afford to have any missteps, Wynonna may have a bit more of a margin for error, so she does have that going for her. Tony? He’s another big question mark for me this season, simply because I still don’t know what to make of the outcome of last season – just find it hard to believe that, after several seasons of letting him go home in the early weeks of the competition due to inaction, the viewers suddenly decided that he deserved to win. I doubt it’s that simple (and there were far more factors in play that determined that outcome), but since that’s the theory I’m hearing touted most, I feel like I have to take it into consideration. So how does that bode for Tony this season? Who knows. Maybe he’s got more voters than usual (especially with Maks gone), maybe he has fewer, since he now a MBT and thus has lost the sympathy of the Church of Peewee Football followers that “just wants a pro who hasn’t won yet to win”. Truth be told, the show has gotten increasingly unpredictable the last few seasons, that sometimes I don’t know up from down anymore – and the Tony situation is one of them. My gut says these two won’t make it past the midpoint of the competition – but my head says “anything goes!”

7.) Sean & Peta – In recent seasons, there seems to have been one or two couples per season that TPTB just can’t resist the urge to “pimp” a bit – and I worry that Sean & Peta might be one of them this season 🙁 Sean is “part of the family”, after all, and they already seemed to bend over backwards to accomodate the fact that The Bachelor was airing concurrent with the announcement of the cast. I haven’t really decided yet whether I think the late announcement of Sean as the 12th contestant is going to benefit he & Peta or not – but with the way we’ve been getting bombarded with media about these two the past few days, I’m thinking it may actually benefit them to have their names fresh on viewers’ lips come premiere night. While Sean seems like a nice, likeable guy (for a Bachelor), and Peta’s neither really likeable or dislikable (honestly, she just seems to fade into the woodwork next to her partners to me), the fact that they’ve already made it clear that they fully intend to exploit Sean’s shirtlessness as an asset this season, and the just-a-bit-too-smug-for-comfort way that Peta assured an interviewer that they were “gonna win”, I’m wondering if these two already know that they’re going to be getting a bit of a leg up on the competition, with some help from TPTB. I think I’ve made clear here at Pure how I feel about Peta’s skills as a teacher & choreographer (she’s a doormat who doesn’t know how to put her foot down with her partners and has just gotten very, very lucky to get as far as she has the past two seasons), and Sean’s dance skills are debateable – but even if these two only manage to be mediocre-to-ok performers, I can’t shake the feeling that we’ll still be seeing them for several weeks, regardless. Guess you can blame the lingering stench of Shirtless Levygate from season 14 and Douchelord Marinigate from season 15 for casting doubt about this partnership on me…but hey, with my standards this low, I could end up being very pleasantly surprised by these two 🙂

So who do you guys think will be gone before the midpoint of the season? And who do you think will be the early ousters? Keep an eye out for part II of my preliminary power rankings, coming at you tomorrow, where I reveal my predictions for the finalists and winners of this season 😉

47 responses to "DWTS 16 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part I"

Woo-hoo! Power Rankings from Court. I’m psyched. The season is about to get real.

Don’t want to come across as a sycophant, but I agree with this assessment right down the line. Does that mean I’m actually learning something about DWTS or have I been “assimilated” 😀

The bottom half seems exactly right to me, although the order of elimination could well get shuffled around.

Since I’ve developed a serious case of “Gleb-itis” and love Lisa’s dry self-deprecating sense of humor (not to mention Giggy), it absolutely sucks that Lisa and Gleb could be the first to go. I so hope Court “The Great Kreskin” is wrong about that. I’d much rather see DL and Cheryl or Sean and Peta wave buh-bye first.

That said, my biggest fear is for Andy and Sharna. From a guy I thought I’d loathe, I’ve completely changed direction and have a lot of sympathy and respect for Andy. Regardless of how the whole DWTS gig plays out, I hope he’s finally managed to get his life straightened out.

This is my guess of the elimination order (and I actually have Lisa going farther than Sean):

12) D.L. and Cheryl: Like you said he doesn’t seem invested in the competition and he just seems like a person who is doing to show to gain publicity and not for the experience.
11)Wynonna and Tony: I understand she has a huge fanbase but I don’t see her getting past week 2.
10)Victor and Lindsay: you said it best. the boxing fanbase is not the same anymore and he seems to be the boxing version of Sean right now: a lot of energy and excitement but very laid back and forgettable which leads me to…..
9)Sean and Peta: To quote Santana on Glee: he is plastic man. He says all the right things, most likely is going to take advantage of his abs real quick, and has a lot of energy. Saying that, there is no chemistry between him and Peta so it’s kinda like teacher student than equal partners in the competition.
8)Andy and Sharna: He is surprising me a lot. Saying that I watched “the view” today and he isn’t great but he is a lot of fun to watchh so his entertainment factor is immense.
7)Lisa and Gleb: I went into this thinking “first week gone” for her but she honestly is a genuine person which shocks me becuase I always associate those shows with arrogant rich people and she is just having a blast and is in this to win this. Plus, I am genuinely shocked to say this but for a new pro, Gleb is already turning heads and based on the video in the other post, he is an awesome dancer.I can only imagine what else he can do.

Oh, I love this series! It’s one of my favorites and one I look forward to every season!! And once again, you brought it Court!

As for who I think will be gone by the midpoint of the season: DL, Wynonna, Lisa, and Victor give me a negative weakest link feeling. Wynonna has a huge fan base, so, I think she could stick around a while unless she’s really bad. I don’t know, but, I think D.L. might go home first. I’m worried for Lisa too since she sounds negative so much, but, I wish them the best and I like them too. I can’t wait to see Gleb take to the dancefloor. As for Sharna and Dick, I’m really hoping they will pull a Nancy Grace and stick around atleast to the top 5? Anyway, for the most part, I think you nailed the bottom 6.

Great rankings Courtney! I agree that the season have gotten more and more unpredictable. Lots of twists and turns (some turn out nicely, others…yeah no). Here are my own personal rankings:

12.) DL & Cheryl- I have found these two to really…odd. I surely don’t like what I’ve seen so far. Something just clicks wrong with this couple all around for me. DL just seems to not take this very seriously at all, and doesn’t seem like he’ll really try very hard. Combine that with the fact that I think that Cheryl has checked out for several seasons now…and you’ve got Team Unmotivated right here. And I just honestly don’t see many people being that motivated to pick up the phone or go online and vote for them either. Probably the only couple I’m not feeling any excitement for.

11.) Lisa & Gleb- I have to agree here unfortunately. Lisa & Gleb just don’t seem to be making any waves, and I just don’t think they spark enough to become noticeable. That is especially a nail in the coffin in a season like this where you have so many fun, diverse personalities. From what I’ve seen…I don’t think she’ll have stellar dance skills to rely on either. Sadly, I don’t see these two going very far 🙁 But I would love to be dead wrong and they make make strides. The only big reason that I put Lisa above DL is while I think Lisa may be a bit forgettable, I think in this case “unforgettable” is MUCH better than “unforgettable, boring, and unlikable.” Lisa’s got a lot going against her…but I think DL’s got a few extra things going against him.

10.)Victor & Lindsay- I’m just not quite sure on these two yet. They may last longer, they may get sent home very quickly. I haven’t really seen enough of his dancing to really get a feel of how good he may or may not be. And like Courtney stated, their fanbase is a huge question mark. However, I am leaning towards their being a lack of votes for them, simply because they’ll fade into the crowd as the couple that everyone likes…but has no motivation to vote for. I see a lot of “I like Victor and Lindsay a lot, but my favorites are (insert more popular couple here). I really hope they make it though!” coming their way. We’ll have to see what happens.

9.) Wynonna & Tony- Okay, I do really like Wynonna and Tony both…but there more I watch them…the quicker I get the feeling they’re charm will wear off very quickly. Wynonna seems to have a very straightforward, kinda dry sense of humor. I think a lot of people will find her kinda funny and enjoyable, but I think there may be just as many people that find her a bit cold and unapproachable. I can’t say Tony’s really a shiny personality either. I don’t think I see her being a Kirstie either. I think Wynonna just won’t be quite the dancer she was, mostly because I don’t think she’ll just let go and enjoy herself. And Kirstie also had Maks. He and Kirstie seemed to bring out the best in each other, and I think Maks really pushed her to get as far as they did. Tony, I’m afraid to say, rarely creates any serious determination and drive in his partners. He’s a good teacher, but not a good competitive teacher IMO.

8.) Andy & Sharna- A part of me feels like these two could be a revelation. But another part of me feels like not enough people will grab onto his redemption story fast enough for him to last. I think putting them here creates about a middle ground for me. I REALLY want them to do well, because I see a genuine eagerness to work hard, improve, and grow as a person coming from Andy. I think it’d be a really nice thing to see. I also think Sharna’s really likable and a good choreographer. If things click for these two just right, they can beat the rankings I have for them I think. However, the two question marks for me are 1) How many people will actually latch onto his redemption story? (as stated above) and 2) What about his dancing? I’m just not quite sure about either yet. It seems as though on PureDWTS the majority seem to love them and want to give Andy a chance, but of course we don’t know how the average viewer will react to him. That will be what matters. As for the dancing…yeah, I just have no clue. He didn’t seem to be doing half bad in the rehearsal video, but that was only one small clip. I would love to see them do well, but I am just not sure yet.

7.)Sean & Peta- So far I think I like Sean alright. Feeling a bit ambivalent about Peta. Like Courtney, I feel that Peta is just letting her partners walk all over her, and doesn’t seem to be really claiming her authority. Not just that, but I am not quite sure if I see that true winning drive in her that we see in Derek, Mark, Kym, Anna, Maks, Val…and well…most of the pros actually. Sean seems like a nice guy, but I’m not sure if his personality will shine enough out there. Like I said before, and like many are saying now, this season’s FULL of characters. “Nice” alone isn’t going to get you anywhere. I think these two are in the most danger of becoming that generic couple that very few hate, but few love above the others. His dancing is debatable for me, I don’t think he’ll be bad, but I’m not quite sure if he’ll be particularly good either. I’m on the fence about them. If Peta manages to find that drive and spark, and Sean lets his personality shine and dances well, they may just get further than I think. Otherwise, I think they will only make it to the midpoint…or just a week beyond it.

I am excited for this season though. A lot of good things are going for it that overall outweigh the bad IMO 🙂

I agree with the bottom six as well. Barring some major dance talent from one of these six, or one of the top six being a disappointment, these couples will probably be gone by midway through. However, I’m really hoping that DL and Sean pop to the bottom, and everyone else moves up a slot or two. In particular, I would love to see Andy & Sharna make the midpoint. Monday’s going to be interesting….

I too think the bottom six are about right, i would just switch up the positions a bit.

12) DL & cheryl – the only reason i hesitate to put him here is cheryl. i think he is going to have the least memorable cha cha, and will not have a good qstep + ?fanbase

11) lisa & gleb – aside from wynonna she seems like the weakest female dance wise. Unless she is hilarious right out the gate, i dont see her lasting too long

10) victor & lindsay – i think he will give decent dances but his fanbase just does not line up with the show. they seem like the could charm the audience after a couple of weeks, i just dont think they will have that

9) andy & sharna – i think his dances will also be decent, but i too fear he has alienated too many fans to be given a shot a seeing the new and improved andy

8) wynonna & tony – this is about the time where i think her fanbase charm will where off

7) sean & peta – i dont think his dancing nor petas choreo will be that good, and i think the residual or transfer bachelor fans will start to lose interest

Victor and Lindsay are the biggest wildcards to me, where I can see them out within the first 2 weeks OR making it very far. Is Victor single? If so they might develop a shipper fanbase. He and Lindsay have a cute chemistry and he has a charming personality, so if he has some skills they could gain fans as they go. I never would have imagined Kyle Massey getting 2nd place before the season started, but charm can sometimes go a long way.

@Jenn, Yes, I think Victor is single. I see where you’re going with a Victor/Lindsay ship, but at least in the rehearsal vids, I’m not getting a good “ship” vibe from these two. I don’t know either of them, but Victor seems very boy-next-door and Lindsay gives off serious “goody two-shoes” vibes. I can’t see them being a good “ship”. However, shippers don’t need any help from the “shipp-ees” to launch. So anything’s possible. Maybe I’m just too old to be susceptible to Sandy and Danny Summer Love fantasies. 😉

Loved your predictions. I know nothing about the stars, but what I know is that my favorites couples will come only in your part II, which seems to be nice (to me), lol. Even being a gimnastics geek, Dorothy Hamill touched my heart! She’s just adorable, even more with Tristan as her partner! Great partnership, the sweethearts of this season, in my opinion. Can’t wait for part II.

@Cidra lol yeah I’m just thinking that even if they aren’t giving out those vibes, shippers can create something out of nothing just if they are cute together and single. I never got a ship vibe from Bristol/Mark but I think they had a base of shipper supports. I think there are people who want to ship for a couple every season and I was thinking they might be the best candidates. So many of the other couples can’t be shipped. Zendaya is too young, Sean/Peta won’t work (well maybe, if they want a love triangle), others are married etc.

12- Lisa & Gleb: I don’t see the housewife fans watching dwts and being inspired enough to vote. And with Gleb being new, it’s not helping. But like Courtney said, it’s a first so who really knows!

11- DL & Cheryl: I think DL isn’t putting as much into this as others and I can’t see him being a great dancer. Also, as Will said above, Cherly is checked out. I think with everything else going on she doesn’t care about pushing and going further.

10- Wynonna & Tony: I personally haven’t found myself connecting with her in the 3 weeks of interviews, so I wonder how others feel as well. Dancing might not be too great for her. And I don’t know how the vote will go because of Kellie there so maybe she won’t get as many votes as we expect? (or it could be the opposite too!)

9- Victor & Lindsay: I think these two have good chemistry. If they charm everybody week 1 they could have a slight chance of going further.

8- Andy & Sharna: I really really hope that he does make it past week 1. He seems really driven and I just want him to go far for his personal gain.

7- Ingo & Kym: I know most people have agreed with the top 6, but I just don’t really see these two in the top. I think it goes back to the debate last season with Kelly and what the soap fanbase is really like. After looking at pictures and videos, I don’t see the dancing being too great so I have them as the best in the bottom 6.

Not sure which order but for the first three to go I say:
Victor – Small if any significant fanbase for either one.
Sean – Small fanbase for Peta and the # of fans that Sean may get I think are lower than Cheryl’s
D.L. – Yuck

Then:
Lisa – They may last longer than Andy depending on Gleb’s newfound popularity and Lisa
Andy – The little engine that could.
Wynonna – I’ll be voting for Wy but not to the point where it knocks out those that dance better and I like as well (Dorothy, Kellie and I’m liking Zendaya w/Val)

I was hoping to see this post but I didn’t want to assume you’d have time to do it, so Thanks!

I agree with the likely bottom six and that too many things now are unpredictable. As of now, who I think I’d like to go first is DL but I wouldn’t count them out for all the reasons stated about Cheryl knowing the gig. Next I’d like to see Sean out because I agree with Vin: plastic. No surprise was an insurance sales man. Next will be politics. But I don’t think he’ll go out so early.

I kind of think Victor/Lindsay could make it to the top half with the only realistic shipper potential for those who thrive on that. And she keeps talking about *bringing something fresh and new*, like there’s a story tptb are pushing.

Steve, I’d say the ship sails when the nutty shippers are blowing hot air on it. When the couple gets booted off, then we can consider the “ship” *sunk*. In the case of these ships, the sooner the better IMO.

Echoing Heidi, some viewers will ship ANYBODY – believe me when I say there were people that genuinely believed Bristol & Mark were romantically involved (and some of them still lurk here..) and were downright nasty to Mark on Twitter when he cast Chelsea K. as his love interest in that music video of his. I generally find that the viewers most prone to shipping are a) very young/immature, b) out of touch with reality, c) lonely/bored, or d) all of the above. It seems to be a way for some to live vicariously through their favorite couple…which I actually find a little sad. Interestingly enough, I also find that the “crazy shippers” are often the same ones touting the “Peewee Football” philosophy (“Give the MBT to a pro who hasn’t won yet!”) and the ones that genuinely believe the underdog-with-no-chance-in-hell-of-actually-winning deserves to win (“OMG Chaz totally deserves to win season 13!!!”). So in other words – many of them seem to be living in a dream world.

Trying to think of who the craziest shippers are…Heidi, do any stick out to you? I think the Bristol/Mark shippers are pretty cray…then again, so are the Sabrina/Mark shippers, who still cling to the idea that those two are still pining away for each other 5 years after their original season. Hines/Kym shippers seemed to create this whirlwind romance in their heads out of absolutely nothing, since Hines & Kym seemed pretty damn platonic to me. Of course the Kelly/Val shippers were pretty fanatical, but I blame that partially on Kelly & Val themselves, for adding fuel to the fire with the whole smoochy-smoochy act last season.

The Bristol/Mark one is just totally bizarre and I don’t see it at all. And yes, the Kelly/Val ones are still convinced that work was what kept them away from each other in the off season. Yo, if you’re that hot for each other, you find a way. But the Maria/Derek and Shawn/Derek ones were also completely out of control – and had a mini war going on between them. I never got a “romantic” vibe from either couple. Maria/Derek was a silly, let’s pretend, tongue in cheek kinda thing, and Shawn? Never saw it. At all. Yo, Maria Derek shippers – she’s lived with the same man for 14 years and has never kept it secret. If she and Derek wanted each other, they would make it happen. But the weirdest thing about this one is the *men* who are convinced it’s a real relationship and that she’s cheating on her bf with Derek – they tweet about it to Howard Stern in a “we men have to stick together” sort of way, and also tweet ugly things to Maria. It’s the craziest thing I’ve ever seen.

But yes, craziest of all are the Derek/Shannon shippers and Mark/Sabrina shippers – both ships happened at the same time and BOTH were real relationships after the show. Some of the Shannon fans still hate Derek for breaking up with her and one even goes so far as to create new twitter names (I think she’s up to 50 or so now) every week to spew hate at him, or just tell him everything he is doing wrong, real or perceived. Apparently, Derek became a bit too fond of bunnies around the end. Lucky for Mark, he and Sabrina seemed to have ended their relationship under better conditions because he doesn’t have the crazies hating on him for it. Or at least, I haven’t seen it.

They said a lot of things during the season that were all about that – didn’t believe them then and don’t think I believe them now. That whole game they played while the show was on and how much attention it got them leads me to be very skeptical. Who admits to being “friends with benefits” seriously?? And multiple times? What is that, once? Twice? Kelly lives in LA and Val had to go for some other reason so they hung out??

idk, i think its just a kelly term. that guy heath, who all her co-workers called her boyfriend, she only ever referred to as a fwb.

shes been to ny/nj to visit him about 3-4 times and hes been to cali about 3 times to visit her. one trip in particular she spent like 2 wks there and then they flew together back to cali where he spent a week there.

who knows the inner working of whatever ‘friendship’ they have going on, im always a skeptical person also, but whatever it is, they are obviously still very very close.

Great post, Courtney! I agree with every point. I do think that Wynona might last to around the mid point, she seems to have a LOT of fans but I would be absolutely fine if this all works out exactly as you mapped it so far. Well done!!!

Fun read and perceptive. Strange that boxers don’t do better as they have to be incredibly athletic, physically fit, footwork, etc., but we see the same thing with tennis players. On the other hand, gymnasts and ice skaters seems to do well at dancing.

I have never been so torn pre season as to who to give my votes to! Besides DL/Cheryl, I think all the couples have chemistry that ranges from amazing (Kellie/Derek, Victor/Lindsay, Jacoby/Karina) to very strong (Lisa/Gleb, Dorothy/Tristan, Ally/Mark, Zendaya/Val, Wynonna/Tony) to pretty good (Ingo/Kym, Sean/Peta, Andy/Shana.)

But something just makes me love Victor/Lindsay. Not since Apolo/Julianne have I seen such a young likeable adorable couple. I will do my part in trying to keep them in a while. Hope he can dance well!

And so happy that I don’t have to worry about Maksim’s irrational fan base dragging him and his undeserving partner into week 8 or further this season. His fan base is the only one pros I really worry about keeping in the game only because of the pro.

Hate hate hate seeing contemporary being an option. You have a great cast, dont over produce it like you did the last 2 seasons!

My predicted order:

12. DL/Cheryl- he probably has a fan base and lord knows for whatever reason she does have one but I’m not feeling them.
11. Lisa/Gleb- a new pro and arguably one of the weaker celebs dance wise, be shocked if they make it past the 2nd elimination, and I really like their pairing, she does have those Housewive fans
10. Andy/Shana- another new pro, Andy didn’t look terrible but I think he will be pretty weak, his past also may prevent some votes
9. Dorothy/Tristan- getting worried, she seems sorta clutzy, and I question whether Tristan has the fire to really push the best out of his celebs, too laid back and having fun, its a likeable pairing though but I worry about her having a smaller fan base
8. Wynonna/Tony- Tony is coming off a strong season and they will likely be hysterical together, I think it gets her to about weak 5 or 6.
7. Sean/Peta- my guess is he;ll be ok for The Bachelor fans to keep him in but like Bachelor Jake he’ll go around mid season. He’s also competing with Ingo and Victor for the ladies vote.
6.Ingo/Kym- I imagine he’s fan base is closer to Jack Wagner than Kelly Monaco. If he’s good he may go further/
5. Victor/Lindsay- If he can dance even pretty good I don’t know how you can resist them 🙂
4. Zendaya/Val- does she have the fan base to make the finals, not sure

Finals- Jacoby/Karina- NFLer, Karina, and he can dance, Kellie/Derek- she can dance, Derek, country music, Ally/Mark- gymnast duh

So excited to see these Courtney – now it does really seem real that the new season is round the corner. Agree that DL and Cheryl just haven’t clicked in pre-season publicity – will be fascinating to see if her fan base can pull them through the first few weeks when there are so many nice (albeit unknown pros)making interesting couples. On the whole, think you’ve got the bottom ones sorted, whatever the order. There is normally one surprise couple who go much further (a la Mark and Katherine or Rob and Cheryl) so will be interested to see who that turns out to be! Do we know yet where the double elimination will fall? Can’t wait to see where you’ve put the top half of the couples.

I don’t think Katherine was a surprise, Lisa. Didn’t we find out before the season started that she was a good dancer and had a bit of experience with tap and other choreo?? I distinctly remember videos being found of her dancing quite well.

The Bristol/Mark shippers were the *worst* I’d ever seen, and most (but by no means all) were fans of her mother’s that thought Bristol had finally met her knight in shining armor that would take care of her and her son. I was surprised at the age of many of them, too, as most were in the fifties – but they definitely fell into that category of needing some kind of spark in their lives. I remember at the other board that shall not be named that I received threats if I ever dared suggest that all they had was a platonic friendship and how could I not see the genuine true love blah blah blah. It was the final straw for me to totally abandon that board. But yeah, Maria/Derek, Sabrina/Mark, Shawn/Mark, Shawn/Derek, Erin/Maks, Brandy/Maks were all bad, and Hines/Kym and Louie/Chelsie were fairly vocal too.
Only thing I dislike more than shippers are LARPers, and they make it a darn close race.

Thanks, vallygirl, for proving my point that a) shippers are immature (as evidenced by your juvenile substitution of “z” for “s”, and the fact that the pluralization of “it” was not necessary and is actually gramatically incorrect), b) shippers are out of touch with reality (as evidenced by your belief that there’s actually something going on between those two).

Interesting to see how many nutjob Team Vally fans still lurk here, after so many of them vowed to boycott us for being “haters”. I love being the Chick-Fil-A of DWTS fan websites – everybody wants to hate, but our product is just too damn good to give up. 😎

Da only reason Val gots I used a s I know my gramma. Anyways da only reason Val gots Z was because any other partner woulda made Kelly feel bad and he was looking out 4 her. So he was being a good guy when he picked Z. Nothing wrong with showing good swag by being a good guy.