Meta

Apr 2 2019 Trade Update (STTBWB+BSH and BSH Factory)

Been a while,

Figured I’d post an update on my results from the last year based on my total account value, so actual returns as well as what I expect going forward. My account has gotten larger and thus the complexity of what I do and how it’s managed has gotten more difficult in regards to flexibility of strategies etc. All I do now is manage portfolio sized STTBWB+BSH and BSH factory. This is probably all I’ll do in complex options for the foreseeable future.

=========

My YTD is 11.96% or more specifically Q1 (Jan 1 to Mar 29)

My 9 month return is 29.27%

My 6 month result is 17.5% (this includes a mess of things that didn’t do so well in Oct/Nov/Dec and are resultant from trades I no longer trade–>HS3, Rhino etc). If you remove these, it’s much closer to 25%-27% for the base portfolio trade mentioned above. IE right on target.

My 1-year is 40.96% Mar 31-Mar 31 which does include a portion of amped up Feb 2018 recovery.
==========

My expectations going forward are a yearly CAGR of about 40% for the main portfolio trade combined with some base trade returns of about 10% giving a total expected of 50% return on total capital. My actual for YTD extrapolated is suggesting 48% which fits right in line. I have no more catastrophic risk in Black swans and events. Everything is boring, simple in its management and I guess that’s the way it should be.

I’ll be looking for higher vol days for more entries and removing risk by harvesting but other than that. Easy days.

7 thoughts on “Apr 2 2019 Trade Update (STTBWB+BSH and BSH Factory)”

Hey Patrick – Nice work! I wish I could compare notes with you. I am doing pretty much the same trades (STT-BWB, BSH), and while I’m up during that time frame, it’s not nearly as much. Really great results!

From Jan 1 does include STTs I had on in Dec/Nov that mark to market higher in Jan/Feb during the vol relief. The trades started after Jan 1 are doing fine but a bit slower. I am fully in right now as well. My PC matches my balance.

I felt I found a good balance with the STTBWB given the Jeep complexity re number of contracts etc. I am not sold on my opinion though. I just have such limited cycles to explore and make decisions what I want to trade in my portfolio. I decided on the STTBWB+BSH for ease.

I am changing how this is deployed now based on the differences I see in the vol regime since Feb 2018.