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UPDATE x2: Total ACA Enrollments actually closer to 8 Million.

Sun, 12/22/2013 - 4:26pm

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, after my victory lap the other day upon confirmation that ACASignups.net had nailed the actual current number of private Obamacare exchange enrollments with 99% accuracy, it was pointed out to me by ericlewis0 that even including the Medicare/SCHIP expansion enrollments, the actual total number of people who now have healthcare coverage (or are about to as of 10 days from now) who previously didn't is actually more than 8 Million.

That is to say, I completely forgot the 3.1 million (as of June 2012...it was 2.5 million a year earlier, so I'm sure it's even higher today) young adults under 26 years old who now have coverage through their parents policies who otherwise wouldn't have, thanks to the Affordable Care Act.

If you add these 3.1 million to the 1.4 million private enrollments and the 3.9 million Medicaid/SCHIP expansion enrollments, that actually comes to around 8.4 million.

Of course, this number is a bit harder to pin down. For one thing, it's an ever-moving target, since some of those 3.1 million have since turned 26 or older and are now either on their own separate plan or have been dropped...while others in the 16-18 range have grown into this new aspect of the law, staying on their parents' policy past 18 when they otherwise would have been dropped at that point. Plus, of course, some of those who have been dropped after 26 are presumably among those who have also signed up for new policies via the exchanges, so there could be a bit of double-counting here.

Even so, it's safe to say that at least 8 million people can thank the ACA for their coverage.

For the record, thanks to a few more updates, the current tally now stands at:

Private Enrollments: 1,429,794

Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 3,906,655

Total: 5,336,449

I can't really plot the "under-26'ers" on the chart for the reasons noted above (plus, it dates back to 2010 and there's only 2 plot points to enter), but I did add a note about them to the graph for the sake of completeness.

You can view the new graph and all of the up-to-date data (with source dates & links for everything) at ACASignups.net.