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US regulators have decided to spread Havana award rights among eight operators – a mix of global full service airlines, medium frills low cost carriers and ULCCs. Unsurprisingly, given the concentration of Cuban Americans residing in the region, South Florida features prominently in the tentative award approvals.

In theory, the DoT’s proposed route structure ensures that customers travelling to Havana have access to a wider range of fare prices and product offerings. In many respects the agency had little choice but to accommodate as many airlines as possible for service to Havana – in order to ensure that consumers had an array of service providers as scheduled air service resumes between the US and Cuba.

There may be some quibbles regarding the tentative route awards to Havana, but the route composition proposed by the DoT is not likely to change drastically. The agency’s route dispersal reflects certain expectations that the agency would institute a certain level of competitive diversity on new services to Havana.

(This is Part 1 in a series examining US-Cuba route awards. Part 2 will examine markets other than Havana)

After complaints about airlines amassing power through joint ventures to the detriment of consumers, the US DOT appears to be exerting greater and more conservative scrutiny on partnerships. DOT has rejected a proposed JV between American Airlines and Qantas. After DOT declined their request for a much longer response time American and Qantas withdrew their application, submitted in Jun-2015.

At a top level the JV does seem to raise concern: combined, Qantas and American would hold 59% of the US-Australia market. Yet almost all of that – 53% – is from Qantas; American adds only 6ppt.

DOT rejects the notion that such larger market share can possibly be in the interest of consumers. Yet it appears to overlook the benefit American might bring in exchange for incremental market share gains. Nor is it clear if this combination is more anti-competitive than some JVs where two airlines, each with a small- or medium-sized position, combine and become multiples larger. Qantas' 53% market share was earned through quality and smart loyalty programme development while competitors lagged.

Qantas will continue growth in North America, its most successful international market, but American Airlines' growth is uncertain and it may re-evaluate a supposedly planned Los Angeles-Melbourne 787 service.