SOME READERS ARE ASKING when, if ever, I will turn bearish. I've done so twice during my tenure here. But I couldn't now if I had to. Longtime readers know I won't call a peak until at least three months after I think it has already happened.

I am the seventh-longest-running columnist in FORBES' history. I stole my three-month rule from Joe Goodman, who ranks third, with a 23-
year tenure that began in 1935. In my opinion he was the best ever.

Tremendous timer, super stock-picker -- and a stunning simplifier. Goodman knew bull markets have long, rolling tops, and bear markets are painfully slow. If he got you out three months after a top, you missed most of the drop, and he would be a hero.

He knew it was vastly easier to see a peak afterward, more so if you don't clutter your brain with prior biased forecasts. Joe simply waited until he could look back and see higher prices three months earlier.

Then he looked for problems that weren't widely appreciated. If he found them, he turned bearish. Following this practice helps me avoid getting spooked by corrections. I last used it in my Sept. 21, 1998 column explaining why you shouldn't bolt that market. I hope to live up to Joe's standards when the next bear market comes.

When will that be? I don't know. I'm thinking that it won't be until 2001. But I could be wrong. Until then, his three-month rule will keep us where we should be. In the meantime you might enjoy some other classic Goodman pearls:
1. Don't be a bull or bear all the time.
2. There is a time to buy, a time to sell and a long time to do nothing.
3. Never buy a stock that didn't rise in a bull market. Smart guys are out of it.
4. Don't buy the sympathy stock. Don't buy a weak railroad because a strong one has started to move. Everyone does this, and it is rarely profitable.
5. When a bull market peaks, sell the stock that rose most. It will fall fastest. Sell the stock that rose least. It didn't rise, therefore it must fall.
6. Early in a bear market the high-class stocks show the most class.
7. In a high market, confine yourself to high-quality stocks.

Hence, my advice now is to be 100% in stocks, 67% of that in America's 25 largest stocks (see my Mar. 22 column for a list), and 33%
in high-quality foreign stocks like:
Sweden's Electrolux (40, ELUX) is everywhere and everything in appliances -- the world's number one producer. You also know it in America as Frigidaire, Kelvinator, McCulloch, Tappan, Hoover, Husqvarna and Weed Eater. But it also has a vast array of professional appliances you never see. With 100,000 employees and $15 billion in revenue, Electrolux is wonderfully cheap, too, at 25% of annual revenue, 7 times earnings and 130% of book value. Check out Electrolux City at www.electrolux.com.

Another great value in consumer brand names is France's LVMH Mot Hennessy Louis Vuitton (53, LVMHY, www.lvmh.com). Three-fourths of its traffic in luxuries like liqueurs and perfumes, with names like Dom Prignon, Hennessy and Christian Dior, comes from outside France. With a lot of Asian exposure, LVMH reacted badly to the good life's decline in Asia. With Asia bottomed out, LVMH is on the rise again, too. Expect to see more deals, more brand names and a nicely rising stock price.

I recommended Tele Danmark (51, TLD, www.teledanmark.dk) on Dec. 1, 1997 at 29. It did well in 1998, but has declined some in 1999, so far.

It's time to buy again. While it has a pretty good lock on Denmark's phone business, its value is in global cellular phones, cable TV and Internet activity. For simple calls on cell phones it is the world's cheapest vendor. It is also one of the world's cheaper communications stocks. Sell if it exceeds 80 this year.

Dutch-based Ahold NV (37, AHO, www.ahold.nl) is one of the world's largest food retailers, and growing. On America's East Coast you know it as Stop & Shop, Giant, Giant Food, Bi-Lo, Tops, Finast and now Pathmark.

It spans 17 nations with 3,500 outlets and is a major overseas institutional and wholesale food supplier. Ahold should keep growing as its retailing know-how eliminates outdated, provincial overseas competitors. It is much cheaper than its seemingly high P/E of 35 indicates.

Kenneth L. Fisher is a Woodside, Calif.-based money manager. His third book is 100 Minds that Made the Market. E-mail: kenfisher@fi.com

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