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Friday, January 30, 2015

FINALS UPDATE:The Big Bang Theory (4.5), Grey's Anatomy (2.8) and How to Get Away with Murder (3.1) all adjusted up. Mom (2.8) did not adjust down, so the new series high is official.

ABC was back in business on Thursday in impressive fashion, as Grey's Anatomy (2.7) and Scandal (3.6) each saw double-digit spikes from their fall finales (and Scandal was two tenths above its winter premiere last season). If there was an an underachiever, it was How to Get Away with Murder (3.0), which was still at bonafide big hit levels but preliminarily didn't even make it back to the fall finale number.

But Murder had a good reason for at least part of the relative softness; NBC got a sizable spike at 10/9c for the series finale of Parenthood (1.7). This was Parenthood's biggest rating in its two Thursday seasons, and it was a considerable four tenths above both last week's penultimate episode as well as last season's finale. NBC was also up in the first two hours with the two-hour The Biggest Loser finale (1.4). For a show that has historically had huge finale spikes, that's not much of an increase on last week's 1.2, but NBC will probably take it given the increased competition.

Fox took sizable drops in week two of the pairing between American Idol (2.2) and Backstrom (1.4). Considering how much Idol was down, it probably could've been even worse than a 25%ish drop for Backstrom; it remained slightly ahead of the corresponding Rake episode. But the show still has another big competitor to deal with next week, and it's already at bubble levels at best.

CBS brought back The Big Bang Theory (4.4), which was just barely below its last original three weeks ago. It appears it will knock off Wednesday's Empire (4.3) for the week's top (reguarly-scheduled) scripted episode. That helped vault Mom (2.8) to what could be another new series high if it holds in finals. Later in the night, Elementary (1.3) suffered a bit against increased drama competition.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

To borrow a joke from last year, ABC sure is glad to get the bad Taste out of its mouth. Tonight, the three-hour lineup of Shonda Rhimes-produced dramas known as "TGIT" is back on the air, and unlike last year (when they were held due to the Olympics) ABC gets to count the block in its February sweeps ratings. Since TGIT ended before Thanksgiving in 2014, though, the length of the hiatus was similar - just a week less than in the 2013-14 season. And these shows lost their "story of the season" status without even airing thanks to a Fox drama called Empire. Will ABC be thankful for TGIT's return ratings? That's The Question for Thursday, January 29, 2015.

FINALS UPDATE: It was officially the first week of decline for Empire (4.3), which did not adjust up in finals. Stalker (1.5) was down, putting it even week-to-week, and The 100 (0.5) took yet another finals downtick.

Week four will likely go down as the first week of adults 18-49 non-growth for the new megahit Empire (4.3). The show matched last week's prelim (which later adjusted up to 4.4) so it may end up not being the first week of decline either. For what it's worth, the show was up a bit more in total viewership (to 11.3 million) and adults 18-34 (3.9).

Fox had worse news in the 8/7c hour, where American Idol (2.9)
shed all of its significant spike from last week. It should
either hit or match the Wednesday low this season from two weeks ago,
and it'll be roughly 25% behind last season's fourth Wednesday.

The only other big four network airing originals was CBS. While The Mentalist (1.3) was down at 8/7c, Criminal Minds (2.1) and Stalker (1.6) were each up a tick, perhaps benefiting from NBC's crime dramas going into repeats.

The CW's Arrow (1.1) remained stout, while The 100 will sweat out the finals after another preliminary 0.6.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

FINALS UPDATE:MasterChef Junior (1.7) and Marry Me (0.8) were up. It was a bad set of finals for the CW, as The Flash (1.3) held at the new low and Supernatural (0.7) was down to a new season low of its own.

Week three of ABC's Agent Carter (1.3) came back after a week off and dropped another two tenths, rating slightly below its repeat Shark Tank lead-in (1.4). This put it well below the low point of the show for which it's filling in, Agents of SHIELD.

CBS continued to race through its order of CSI originals (1.6), and the show zoomed to a season high on a special night leading out of strong repeats from NCIS (1.6) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.6). It's still not exactly a huge accomplishment since the show had very minimal competition from repeats of Chicago Fire (0.8) and Forever (0.7), but it does help illustrate the difficulty of its usual Sunday slot.

Elsewhere, The Flash (1.3) is eyeing another new low but will hope for the same upward adjustment it got last week, while Supernatural (0.8) was also below average. NBC and Fox saw small declines for their respective standouts Parks and Recreation (1.4/1.3) and MasterChef Junior (1.6).

FINALS UPDATE:The Bachelor (2.3) adjusted up to a new season high, while Sleepy Hollow (1.5) was also up.That put both shows up two tenths from last week.

On the final Monday before February sweeps, CBS sat out its regular lineup. But it still had pretty normal numbers in the 8/7c hour thanks to the Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials special (2.1). This was the best number for the special since 2010 (it's hit either 1.9 or 2.0 each of the last four years).

All of the night's originals changed by exactly one tenth from last week:

Fox preliminarily saw Gotham (2.1) inch down to a new low and Sleepy Hollow (1.4) inch up from last week's low.

NBC's Celebrity Apprentice (1.8) and State of Affairs (1.0) were each down a tenth, with State unable to benefit from both competing dramas going into repeats.

ABC had minor growth from The Bachelor (2.2), back to a tie with its season premiere.

And the CW upticked with The Originals (0.7) and Jane the Virgin (0.6), both of which would tie season highs if they hold in finals.

The last Sunday in January isn't defined by one big event but rather by a series of small ones. The only one on broadcast was NBC's Miss Universe (2.0), which more than doubled its ratings from last year when it aired on Saturday. (It was slightly above its last weeknight airing, a 1.8 in late December two years ago.) But ESPN will likely win the night with the NFL's Pro Bowl, and the Turner networks had the Screen Actors Guild awards.

Though none of these events should be all that big of a deal, it was still a very quiet night for the entertainment programming on the other three networks:

CBS had a special Undercover Boss (1.5) which was pretty close to its normal Friday numbers, and two episodes of CSI (1.2/1.3) did no better than the show's usual delivery in the 10/9c hour.

ABC saw small, probably-not-enough rallies for the finales of Galavant (1.1) and Resurrection (1.0), and no rally for Revenge (0.9). They came after a season high 1.7 from America's Funniest Home Videos, which might have benefited from the debut of afternoon NBA games on ABC.

And with NFL help gone, Fox's comedy lineup bombed, as The Simpsons (1.4), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.2) and Family Guy (1.6) all crashed to season lows.

UFC (1.2) was up a tenth from the last Fox telecast in December but down three tenths from the same night last year. It dominated NBC's US Figure Skating Championships (0.5), down from a 0.7 last year.

ABC and the CBS dramas went into repeat mode on the last Friday before February sweeps, but it didn't stop Shark Tank (1.5) from topping the night in one of the series' biggest repeat ratings ever. The other shows in repeats also fared well, including Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and Blue Bloods (1.0) benefiting from an original Undercover Boss (1.4) lead-in. ABC also had encores for Last Man Standing (1.0) and Cristela (0.9); the latter's repeat actually slightly outrated its original low point from December.

Those repeats didn't really produce any bounces on other networks, aside from a sizable increase for Dateline (1.3) in its second week at 10/9c. However, it may have helped keep Fox's World's Funniest Fails (1.0) and Glee (0.7) steady in week two of that pairing.

On the CW, the second Friday outing for Hart of Dixie (0.5) was up a tenth. We'll see if it holds in finals, but it would be a really strong result on a CW Friday; it got as high as 0.5 in its Monday run just one time last season.

Friday, January 23, 2015

FINALS UPDATE: The picture darkened a bit for Backstrom after finals, as it adjusted down to 1.9 while its American Idol lead-in was up to 2.8. (It's another piece of good news for Idol, though, which was up two tenths vs. last week's two-hour episode.) The Vampire Diaries (0.8) gained a much-needed tenth to get back to pretty normal levels, while Mom (2.4) adjusted down to tie last week's episode. The Bad Judge finale (0.7) lost a tenth.

Fox's Backstrom (2.0) had a relatively reasonable start, going three tenths above last year's Rake launch despite Idol (2.7) dropping more than 20% from 52 weeks ago. But it's worth reiterating that the Rake premiere was an unmitigated disaster, so even a decidedly better start doesn't necessarily put it on track for a success. It's on the map, but much more competition looms in the weeks ahead.

CBS had another successful comedy night against the light competition, as Mom (2.5) actually grew from its The Big Bang Theory repeat lead-in (2.4), Two and a Half Men (2.3) upticked and another TBBT repeat (1.9) livened up the 9:30 slot vs. yanked The McCarthys.

The CW had a soft Thursday return with The Vampire Diaries (0.7) and Reign (0.4) each below average.

As ABC and NBC wrap up their filler lineups, ABC's The Taste (0.8) finished a weak third season by dropping a tenth, while the penultimate episodes of The Biggest Loser (1.2) and Parenthood (1.3) were each at average levels.

For the last decade,the fall 2004 launch of Desperate Housewives has been the gold standard when measuring just how huge a new broadcast series can be out of the gate. Many a TV analyst has lamented that another such launch is not possible in the TV world of today. There have certainly been entire seasons when the TV audience has seemed almost unreachable with new series.

After a huge start and improbable growth in weeks two and three, it's clear that Fox's Empire is the most impressive new scripted launch since Housewives. What's not yet clear is whether it could even surpass the first season of Housewives. Adjusting for the average entertainment original of each season, the early returns are shockingly promising on that front.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Fox's smashing success with Empire is the biggest ratings story of 2015 to date. And tonight, the network looks to go two for two with American Idol lead-outs as they launch new crime drama Backstrom, the latest attempt to rekindle the House magic. It comes from Hart Hanson, a creator who has had great success on Fox with Bones, and stars recognizable TV face Rainn Wilson as what the promos call a "brilliant detective, total jerk." Starting off well tonight is essential as TGIT and then The Blacklist will liven up the Thursday landscape in the coming weeks. Will Backstrom detect an audience? That's The Question for Thursday, January 22, 2015.

FINALS UPDATE: Empire (4.4) added a tick, putting it up a whooping 10% week-to-week, while its teammate American Idol (3.4) also ticked up. The picture got a bit less dire for the 9/8c procedurals, but Criminal Minds (2.0) and SVU (1.3) were still at new season lows. The 100 (0.5) went down a tick.

Empire is becoming Fox's new Death Star. The show followed up its two-tenth growth in week two by packing on another three tenths in week three (4.3). Not only is this clearly the biggest new series smash in many, many years, but it actually seems to be dragging American Idol (3.3) back from the dead with it. Idol was just 13% behind the third Wednesday episode from last season.

The added benefit for Fox: Empire appears to be demolishing the competition. Criminal Minds (1.9) and Law and Order: SVU (1.2) both crashed to new lows, with SVU losing to ABC's comedy repeats. And that effect was isolated to the 9/8c hour where Empire resides; Stalker (1.5) and Chicago PD (1.5) were both pretty normal at 10/9c, and The Mentalist (1.5) actually grew a bit for CBS at 8/7c.

The CW's Wednesday return went a bit better than the Tuesday one, as Arrow (1.1) and The 100 (0.6) were both back toward the high end of this season's ratings.

FINALS UPDATE: The finals changed the outlook somewhat meaningfully for the CW; The Flash (1.4) managed to avoid a new low while Supernatural (0.9) adjusted down to a pretty normal number despite no entertainment competition. Elsewhere, the 8:00 Parks and Recreation (1.4) adjusted down and MasterChef Junior (1.8) was up to tie its series high.

The SotU numbers are not counted in finals because there were no ads, though for viewing/competition purposes (in the True formula) I use the preliminary numbers.

With the big four networks taking a break in the last two hours for State of the Union coverage, most of the entertainment excitement came in the 8/7c hour. MasterChef Junior (1.7) and Parks and Recreation (1.5/1.4) were both very close to even week-to-week, perhaps benefiting a bit from less competition on CBS (an NCIS repeat (1.4)) and ABC (an Agent Carter repeat (0.8)).

The CW was back in business on Tuesday in somewhat disappointing fashion as The Flash (1.3) is preliminarily on track for a new series low. Supernatural (1.0) fared better compared to its usual ratings against the big four simulcast in the 9/8c hour.

FINALS UPDATE:Scorpion (2.3) adjusted up to take the night's outright top rating, while Celebrity Apprentice (1.9) and Castle (1.5) were also up a tick.

After Monday broadcast primetime largely took a week off due to the football game, almost everything came back at slightly below the results from the last normal Monday two weeks ago. Fox was hardest hit, with both shows down three tenths; that meant Gotham (2.2) dropped into a tie for its series low and Sleepy Hollow (1.3) hit a new one.

The CBS drops for 2 Broke Girls (2.2), Mike and Molly (2.1), Scorpion (2.2) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5) were more modest, but it certainly indicated that Scorpion got no help from its Sunday post-football sampling.

ABC and NBC, which aired originals against the game last week, were on the upswing vs. those results. But ABC's The Bachelor (2.1) and NBC's Celebrity Apprentice (1.8) were down a bit from their timeslot premieres two weeks ago. ABC saw only a minimal increase for struggling Castle (1.4), while NBC's State of Affairs (1.1) had a much more substantial rebound, to its best rating since it lost The Voice as a lead-in (though that's not saying much).

The CW finally began airing its big guns in 2015 with an even The Originals (0.6) and Jane the Virgin (0.5), though Jane seems to have fared better than usual in the younger demos (including a series high 0.9 W18-34).

FINALS UPDATE: The AFC Championship Game ended up at a 13.9 demo rating, down a stark 27% from the 19.0 Fox got for the NFC game in primetime last year. But a comparison of the closing portions of the games is even more drastic. Last year's game got as high as a 20.7 at 9:00. This year peaked at 15.3 in the 8:00 half-hour and dropped from there: to 14.3 at 8:30, 14.0 at 9:00 and 11.8 at 9:30.

Also, Mulaney (1.2) adjusted down but still had a series high, joined in progress on the East Coast at 7:06. The final rating for its lead-in, the NFC Championship post-game, was a 5.5. Adding that to the True formula takes Mulaney to its lowest True ever. So in reality, the actual lead-in for the formula should probably be something lower (like a 4.0ish). But I'm sticking with the 5.5 since it's the only thing I have.

CBS' AFC Championship Game ruled Sunday primetime, but a big blowout figures to put the game's rating well behind last year's NFC game on Fox, and it also hurt the special sampling for Scorpion (3.0). The preliminary 3.0 covers only the 10:30 half-hour; it does not include the first few minutes in the 10:00 half-hour (5.6) or the last 20ish minutes after primetime. More once time zone-adjusted numbers are available, but it should go way behind last year's The Following premiere (4.4).

UPDATE:Scorpion got 12.29 million viewers and a 3.2 demo rating in time zone-adjusted numbers, only managing to tie the series premiere in the demo. (And pending further adjustments, it had fewer total viewers than its previous original episode!) This was over 25% behind last year's NFC lead-out The Following (4.4), but we'll have to see after finals how the last 30 minutes of the game compared from year-to-year.

ABC's Galavant (0.9) took another massive blow in week three, losing any meaningful separation with the ABC Sunday dramas (though admittedly it faced a stronger portion of the game). Tack on Resurrection (0.7) and Revenge (0.9, slightly up week-to-week) and ABC's three original scripted hours actually lost head-to-head against Fox repeats and NBC's movie Bridesmaids (0.9).

Fox's Mulaney (1.5) is currently on track for a series high due to a lead-in from the late-afternoon NFC Championship. But it could adjust down heavily depending on when the post-game ended.

Fox had a pretty good start out of blooper series World's Funniest Fails (1.0), which was a marked improvement on pretty much everything the network has aired on Friday this season. And it may have helped Glee (0.7) avoid a post-premiere drop.

On ABC, Shark Tank (2.2) exploded to a season high at 9/8c. 8/7c comedies Last Man Standing (1.3) and Cristela (1.1) both came back to earth from big stunt numbers last week; however, that was still pretty decent news for Cristela, leaving it considerably ahead of some of its ratings from December.

NBC's flip of Constantine (0.8) to 8/7c and Dateline (1.0) to 10/9c did not go well; it was of no help to Constantine and seemingly hurtful to Dateline. Meanwhile, Grimm (1.2) came back at the low end of its ratings this season.

With a stronger show at 8/7c, CBS remained improved over its usual fall ratings with the extremely consistent trio Undercover Boss (1.4), Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) and Blue Bloods (1.4).

And the CW had a strong start out of Hart of Dixie (0.4) at 8/7c. It only got that high once in nine Friday tries last season (though that run came in the 9/8c hour).

Monday, January 19, 2015

The Big Bang Theory went back into repeats (2.5), but the rest of the CBS lineup didn't suffer too much. In particular, Mom (2.4) seems like a more impressive performer in these post-repeat airings than when TBBT is original. Two and a Half Men (2.1), The McCarthys (1.5) and Elementary (1.3) also took modest drops.

It wasn't a good second Thursday for American Idol (2.6), which took a big drop vs. the first three nights and saw the year-to-year gap widen compared to the opening Thursday (it was 24% behind 2014's second Thursday). This does not bode that well for next week's Backstrom launch.

NBC and ABC continued playing out their filler lineups; ABC's The Taste (0.9) was even, but NBC had week-to-week drops across the board, including from The Biggest Loser (1.1) and Parenthood (1.2).

FINALS UPDATE: The Mentalist (1.4) and American Idol (3.0) adjusted up; meanwhile, the new lows for Black-ish (1.9) and The Mysteries of Laura (1.0) got even lower.

What seemed like a great moment last Wednesday now has the makings of something truly special. Fox's Empire (4.0) followed up a sensational premiere rating by actually building in week two. It's still early, but the opening returns make this look like nothing short of the biggest broadcast drama breakout in years. Could it actually be a Desperate Housewives-sized situation in the making? Stay tuned. The show saw its American Idol lead-in (2.9) slightly decrease week-to-week; Idol was down 28% year-to-year.

ABC had a little more trouble with a strengthened Fox; ABC saw slight declines for The Middle (2.2), The Goldbergs (2.3), and the 9/8c hour got increasingly worrisome with Modern Family (3.0) and Black-ish (2.0).

CBS crime dramas The Mentalist (1.3), Criminal Minds (2.2) and Stalker (1.5) were all back at fairly normal levels. That helped take a chunk out of NBC, where The Mysteries of Laura (1.1) hit a new low, Law and Order: SVU (1.4) tied its season low from December, and Chicago PD (1.5) inched down but tied for the lead at 10/9c.

FINALS UPDATE: The week-to-week drop for NCIS: New Orleans (2.3) was tempered a bit in finals, while Person of Interest (1.7) also went up to finish even week-to-week.

NBC found another positive result in one of its between-The Voice timeslots, as the final season premiere of Parks and Recreation (1.5) was up vs. last season's premiere and tied last season's high point.However, Parks was of no help to the rest of the night; Marry Me (0.7) somehow dropped again, About a Boy (0.9) was up a tenth, and Chicago Fire (1.5) dropped two tenths.

On ABC, week two of Agent Carter (1.5) dropped 21%, tying the low point of Agents of SHIELD. It's not a great result considering the show had help from an original Shark Tank lead-in (1.8), and now it will have to survive a State of the Union preemption next week.

CBS saw a somewhat sizable drop from NCIS: New Orleans (2.2) despite NCIS (2.8) matching last week's good result, while Fox had minor drops for week two of MasterChef Junior (1.7) and New Girl (1.4).

FINALS UPDATE: An uptick for The Bachelor (1.8) put it narrowly ahead of Celebrity Apprentice. Things got even uglier in the 10/9c hour as Castle (1.3) and State of Affairs (0.7) each adjusted down to a new low.

Opposite a record-setting college football national championship game on ESPN, things got ugly for round two of The Bachelor (1.7) vs. Celebrity Apprentice (1.7). A half-point drop for The Bachelor is particularly alarming given its audience should be pretty much the opposite of the ESPN game skew-wise; after all, it premiered at a very good 2.7 vs. the big game last year.

Leading out of these were Castle (1.4), which tied the series low from its last episode after The Great Christmas Light Fight, and another new depth for State of Affairs (0.8). (It's hard to imagine that Light Fight on December 8 and last night's The Bachelor actually had the same rating!)

Like during the holidays, Mike and Molly (2.1) was the broadcast night's most impressive show amid a sea of CBS repeats. Repeats of note included an Empire pilot encore (0.8) and the first two episodes of Jane the Virgin (0.3/0.3), on the heels of its big night at the Golden Globes.

UPDATE: The first college football national championship game averaged 33.395 million viewers, about 30% above last year and easily a new record for cable TV. It was slightly behind the CFB record, 35.6 million in 2006 (though that was on ABC).

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and
timeslots using numbers adjusted for historical decline. These
update posts, looking back on the newly added 2001-02 and 2002-03
seasons, will link back to the now updated full posts for each day,
and the update posts have exclusive year-to-year trends and ranks among
the 13 iterations of each hour.Many more disclaimers can be seen on the
individual pages, but the most basic one is that the
listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason
replacements may have done much better. Please also note that the
2003-04 thru 2005-06 numbers still contain the "old" A18-49+ scores from
before I filled in the missing data from those seasons. So those
numbers will change (slightly) when the 2014-15 numbers are entered this
summer.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

The last hurrah for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler as hosts of the Golden Globe Awards averaged a preliminary 16.1 million viewers and 5.0 adults 18-49 rating. These numbers tend to adjust up significantly in finals, but they should be at least a bit below the 6.4 and 6.5 posted in the duo's first two stints.

UPDATE: Time-zone numbers for the Globes were 19.3 million viewers and a 5.8 A18-49. In 18-49, that's about 10% behind the first two Fey/Poehler shows, but still ahead of the three Ricky Gervais years (5.5 -> 5.2 -> 5.0).

On ABC, week two of Galavant (1.3) was down a hefty 35 percent vs. last week's premiere, while the dramas Resurrection (0.8) and Revenge (0.8) also hit new lows. A 35 percent drop can hardly be called a positive, even against this big increase in competition, but it's still stacking up quite favorably compared to those other ABC dramas...

ABC had a particularly big Friday return, riding big guest turns on Last Man Standing (1.6) and Cristela (1.3). For Last Man, which had Tim Allen's Home Improvement co-star Patricia Richardson, it was the biggest rating since the season two finale in March 2013. And Roseanne's stint on Cristela tied the series premiere rating from October. Shark Tank (1.9) and 20/20 (1.4) were pretty close to average, but still up from the most recent results.

Fox's strong opening week of 2015 finally hit a bit of a speed bump with a low start for the final season of Glee (0.8 at 8:00 / 0.7 at 9:00). This was 60%+ below last season's premiere, but it wasn't that far behind where it settled for its miserable Tuesday run last spring. (And hey, it was up from the 0.6 finale!)

CBS was nearly as impressive as ABC, with Undercover Boss (1.5) and Hawaii Five-0 (1.5) each inching up from their already impressive returns a week ago. The 100th Blue Bloods (1.4) was flat at last week's season high.

And the week before the return of NBC's original dramas, the network removed its second hour of Dateline in favor of a very little-watched Golden Globes preview (0.5) at 10/9c.

Friday, January 9, 2015

FINALS UPDATE: Despite a finals downtick, Mom (2.7) still held onto its new series high. The Big Bang Theory (4.6), Two and a Half Men (2.3) and Elementary (1.5) all adjusted up for CBS, as did Fox's American Idol (3.1).

The two-hour Thursday premiere of American Idol (3.0) was pretty close to Wednesday's rating, and down by a slightly more reasonable 23% vs. last year's Thursday premiere. Idol jumped noticeably across the night (2.5 -> 2.9 -> 3.2 -> 3.4), further suggesting that the Wednesday comparison suffered unfairly from the episode being just one hour.

It was another night of above-average ratings on the other networks, though the usual CBS January comedy explosion was somewhat limited by Idol being around earlier than usual. The biggest winner was definitely Mom (2.8), which hit another new series high. But The Big Bang Theory (4.5) was well down from the mid-5's it pulled in the pre-Idol January weeks last year, and Two and a Half Men (2.2), The McCarthys (1.7) and Elementary (1.4) similarly had only modest week-to-week growth.

ABC and NBC were still low, but at least a bit better than what they've posted in recent weeks. Reality series The Biggest Loser (1.3) and The Taste (0.9) each rebounded noticeably from last week's ugly numbers, while Parenthood (1.4) returned at a tie for its season high.

FINALS UPDATE: Fox's series were each up a tick, putting Empire (3.8) in a tie with How to Get Away with Murder for top series premiere of the season.

Fox's latest high-stakes drama launch was an absolutely rousing success. Empirewas the breakout surprise of the season, launching at an enormous 3.7 demo rating and nearly 10 million viewers. At the moment, this rating trails only a Scandal-fueled How to Get Away with Murder (3.8) among this season's series premieres, and it may not be #2 after finals. Adding to the amazement is that Empire did this despite a pretty meh lead-in from American Idol (3.1), which started over 30% behind last year's two-hour premiere.

Though Fox was far stronger than usual, most programming on the other networks seemed unfazed. ABC actually had new season highs opposite Idol from both The Middle (2.3) and The Goldbergs (2.5), but Modern Family (3.2) and especially Black-ish (2.1) had a rougher time opposite the Empire premiere.

NBC was at pretty normal levels with The Mysteries of Laura (1.3), Law and Order: SVU (1.7) and Chicago PD (1.6), in a case where Fox's strength was probably cancelled out by CBS resting its crime dramas.

As for CBS, The Mentalist (1.3) debuted on Wednesday at close to its usual level on Sunday in December, but lead-out The People's Choice Awards (1.8) struggled; the show was 25% behind last year's rating.

The two-hour premiere of Marvel's Agent Carter scored a middling 2.0 rating at 8:00 and a 1.8 at 9:00. This was an improvement on what ABC usually gets out of Agents of SHIELD, but not a particularly significant one, and it will need to hold up pretty well to be a SHIELD-sized player for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, the fact that this couldn't even beat Sunday's Galavant premiere would seem to suggest that SHIELD has created a certain limitation on what the Marvel brand can do on TV. And the change in lead-in didn't do anything for Forever (1.1).

Like on Monday, CBS and Fox thrived against lessened competition from NBC. NCIS (2.8) and NCIS: New Orleans (2.5) each hit their highest ratings since the opening week of the season, while Person of Interest (1.7) was also on the high end. Fox's MasterChef Junior (1.8) tied its premiere from the late fall, while New Girl (1.5) was also a bit above average, but The Mindy Project (1.0) was very weak.

As for NBC, Marry Me (0.8) completely tanked in its first episode without The Voice support, only tying its lead-in from a Parks and Recreation repeat (0.8), and About a Boy joined them at a new low 0.8. Given those ratings, it's something of a miracle that Chicago Fire (1.7) managed to pull into a tie for first at 10/9c.

FINALS UPDATE:NCIS: Los Angeles (2.0) adjusted up to a new season high. Celebrity Apprentice (2.0) went down a tick, which (coupled with the Apprentice uptick on Sunday) made its post-premiere hold look less impressive.

The first reality showdown between The Bachelor (2.2) and Celebrity Apprentice (2.1) was a virtual dead heat, with NBC's Apprentice holding almost all of its surprising Sunday rating and The Bachelor dropping nearly 20% from last winter's premiere. The Bachelor shook it up a bit in actually airing a full three hours on this night, but that didn't seem to hurt ratings-wise; it was actually at its highest in the 10/9c hour (2.4) with less competition.

Meanwhile, there were a lot of CBS and Fox scripted winners on the first fully original Monday with no competition from Dancing with the Stars, The Voice or football. CBS saw 2 Broke Girls (2.4) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.9) each tie their premiere season highs, while Mike and Molly (2.2) followed up a couple impressive originals during the holidays by setting a new season high. And the returns of new dramas Scorpion (2.4) and Gotham (2.5) were each up noticeably, hitting their highest ratings since October. The only problem for these shows is that they all go back into repeats against the college football national championship next week.

The only major loser was NBC's State of Affairs (1.0), which could only tie its low from two weeks ago despite getting very good lead-in support from Apprentice.

FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (4.7) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (3.0), putting both series on the very narrow year-to-year upside in their respective slots. Celebrity Apprentice (2.4), Bob's Burgers (2.0), Madam Secretary (1.5) and CSI (1.3) also upticked.

ABC had a promising start out of its four-week newbie Galavant (2.1 at 8:00, 1.9 at 8:30), which built big on its lead-in from America's Funniest Home Videos (1.3). A drop from 2.1 to 1.9 is typically not a good sign in the 8:00 hour, but the overall viewing dynamics were likely a bit irregular on this night with a huge NFL playoff game wrapping up just before 8:00. While it may have benefited from high overall viewing, the lead-out dramas Resurrection (1.0) and Revenge (0.9) most certainly did not, so clearly there was some real interest in Galavant.

NBC also made a significant opening Sunday splash with the return of Celebrity Apprentice (2.3). It's definitely reminiscent of The Biggest Loser's explosive return at 3.0 on this night a couple years ago, but this one is arguably even more impressive; this CA premiere was up a whooping 35% from its last premiere, and that last premiere was almost two full years ago! The Bachelor on Monday will not be an easy opponent for this show, but this start should position Apprentice as a more than adequate piece of The Voice filler.

Fox had the enormous NFL playoff lead-in and got its usual big bounce for the comedy lineup. The Simpsons (4.6) tied its rating on this night last year, while Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.9) tied the year-ago episode of Bob's Burgers. The lineup was a bit down year-to-year in the 9:00 hour with Family Guy (2.8) and Bob's Burgers (1.9), but everything except Family Guy hit a new season high.

CBS was left behind in all the shuffle with Madam Secretary (1.4), The Good Wife (1.3) and CSI (1.2) all only managing to tie their lows from the fall.

Here are the 16 full tables missed during the holiday season. Among what's included here: the last few games of the NFL regular season, some impressive Mike and Molly originals mixed among repeats deep into December, and a strong finish for Undercover Boss on Sunday (1.8) leading to its return to Friday (1.4) boosting both of the CBS procedurals to season highs.

A quick programming note: the only final half-hour breakdowns I ever got from this period were from last week (week 15, ending 1/4/15). I'm missing them from weeks 13 (ending 12/21/14) and 14 (12/28/14). So in these two weeks, every program is treated as having the same rating/share in each half-hour. In the Vault, the half-hour breakdowns are excluded for week 13/14 shows, and the True scores are listed with just one number after the decimal (to denote that they are the "preliminary" version of the formula).

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

American Idol premiere night was once the beginning of a four-month run of overwhelming ratings domination for the Fox network. Now, the network just crosses its fingers for slowed year-to-year bleeding and an Idol big enough to keep it somewhat competitive. But there's added pressure on the former Death Star's premiere this year because it will lead into a new drama, the hip hop musical Empire. Musical dramas have run the gamut from huge (Glee) to consistently modest (Nashville) to megabomb (Viva Laughlin), and Fox could really use something toward the positive end of that spectrum. Will Fox begin rebuilding its Empire? That's The Question for Wednesday, January 7, 2015.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

For the second time in three nights, ABC is premiering a short-run show designed to fill in for a serialized drama during its hiatus. In this case, that show is ABC's second dip in the Marvel Comics pool, Marvel's Agent Carter. Though it's not quite as closely tied to the ongoing stories in the Marvel Cinematic Universe as Agents of SHIELD, it also brings a prominent character from one of those movies to the table. It explores the 1940s life of Peggy Carter, one of the lead characters in the first Captain America movie. Will Agent Carter be a ratings marvel? That's The Question for Tuesday, January 6, 2015.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Welcome to the Best Case/Worst Case for broadcast television's January premieres! I couldn't come up with a good way of splitting up these 11 shows into multiple posts, so I'm knocking out the whole month now.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

The winter TV season really gets going tonight, a Sunday evening with no primetime NFL game but a lot of overall viewership due to the NFL playoff games in the late afternoon. Of greatest interest in the entertainment world is ABC's premiere of musical comedy "extravaganza" Galavant. It's certainly not the typical broadcast series, and it's gotten a solid amount of promotion through the holiday season. But ABC is double-pumping the full run across just four weeks in January, ending the show before February sweeps. Will Galavant make ratings music? That's The Question for Sunday, January 4, 2015.

Friday, January 2, 2015

Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and
timeslots using numbers adjusted for historical decline. These
update posts, looking back on the newly added 2001-02 and 2002-03
seasons, will link back to the now updated full posts for each day,
and the update posts have exclusive year-to-year trends and ranks among
the 13 iterations of each hour.Many more disclaimers can be seen on the
individual pages, but the Fox posts (unlike the others) include both fall and winter lineups, since their schedules change often enough to make it worthwhile. Please also note that the
2003-04 thru 2005-06 numbers still contain the "old" A18-49+ scores from
before I filled in the missing data from those seasons. So those
numbers will change (slightly) when the 2014-15 numbers are entered this
summer.