Examining the Percentage of MLB Draft Picks Who Reach the Major Leagues

Growing up, every kid is told by their parents and coaches that with enough hard work and dedication, they could one day play in the major leagues. While it’s a nice thought, it’s a bit misleading and far from the truth.

According to High School Baseball Web, only 5.6 percent of high school baseball players ultimately play at the collegiate level. However, among those NCAA players, the odds of playing professionally doubles (10.5 percent), as the crop of collegiate players play a major role in filling out the 40-round MLB first-year player draft. Furthermore, the percentage of high school players getting drafted into professional baseball is a minuscule 0.5 percent.

In the wake of last week’s 2012 MLB draft, I thought that it’d be interesting to examine the percentage of MLB draft picks that actually reach the big leagues, with an emphasis on the declining odds as the draft progresses.

Rounds 21-40

Although there is less conclusive data considering the new collective bargaining agreement slashed the draft from 50 to 40 rounds this year, the chances of a player drafted after the 21st round reaching the major leagues is a slim seven percent. (It’s probably less now that 10 rounds have been cut from the draft.)