Afternoon commodities commentary

CBS.MarketWatch.com

LIVESTOCK:

DAILY DRESSED BEEF OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: Choice cutouts at noon Thursday were 14-18 cents higher, selects 20-26 cents lower. Sales volume was moderate. Friday's offerings will be moderate. Prices and cutouts are expected to be mixed again as they have been most of this week. But, the market undertone appears to be firming. Next week's market should be higher. Buying interest and sales have been good this week but will likely moderate some next week. If prices are higher as expected, buyers probably won't buy as much as this week. Sltr Est: 130,000

DAILY FED CATTLE OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: Cash trade started at steady prices Thursday morning. Sales were still relatively light by noon but should be moderate by evening. If packers expect higher beef prices next week, sales will likely total up large. Friday's market will be mostly steady, but likely limited to clean up deals. Bulk of this week's business will be done by Thursday night. Next week's market has a reasonably good chance to be 50 cents to 1 dollar higher, depending on the beef market. Cornbelt: 68-70/109-112 Kansas: 68-69.50 Texas: 68-69.50

DAILY FED CATTLE OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: Feeder cattle prices Friday will be firm to mostly 1 dollar higher. Higher live cattle futures again Thursday continues to support stronger buyer attitudes in spite of higher corn prices Thursday. Receipts will be light to occasionally moderate. Even though seller interest is good, marketings typically decrease this time of year. With cash prices steady so far on fed cattle this week, feeding margin will again be breakeven to negative. But that hasn't slowed buyers yet. Plains: 80-91 Cornbelt: 81-92

DAILY HOGS/PORK OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: Cash hog prices Friday will be weak to down 75 cents. Packers will be starting with ample inventory and apparently plans for a modest Saturday slaughter. Of course, "modest" could be 50-80,000 rather than the 109,000 last year. Pork trade will be light and offerings light. Product prices are expected generally firm to slightly higher. Cutout is expected steady/higher. Futures prices are expected to be choppy friday but close lower. Sltr Est: 357,000 WI Carc: 52-69 WT: 43-44 EI Carc: 55-66 ET: 43-43.50

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS

June live cattle: first support 67.82, second 67.30. First resistance 68.34, second 68.86. August live cattle: first support 67.23, second 66.63. First resistance 67.83, second 68.43.

August feeders: first support 84.74, second 84.07. First resistance 85.41, second 86.08.

June live hogs: first support 66.80, second 65.45. First resistance 68.15, second 69.50. July live hogs: first support 68.30, second 67.60. First resistance 69.00, second 69.70.

July pork bellies: first support 86.49, second 85.02. First resistance 87.96, second 89.43.

GRAIN:

DAILY CORN OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: July corn futures closing call: down 1 cent Friday. This is the time of year when the private weather forecasters put spin on the NOAA 6-10 day outlook to fit their bias. Recent rains will sustain the crop for a few weeks, but the key remains weather in July/August. Heat has been present for weeks in the southwest. Will it move toward the Cornbelt as NOAA suggests? There is a lot of corn acres in the west, northwest and southeast that have not enjoyed the recent rains in the northern Cornbelt.Expectations for export sales are 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes, but it is time to start looking for some new crop sales.Funds were heavy sellers in wheat, which tended to pressure corn as well. Corn futures are the only grain still well above the loan.

DAILY SOYBEAN OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: July beans closing call: down 3 cents Friday. Expectations for soybean export sales are slow at 200,000 to 400,000. It is also time for new crop sales to gain some momentum.Condition ratings for soybeans this week were 66 percent vs. 70 percent last year on June 6. There is a lot of time for the soybean yield to be impacted by weather. Over the past four years, excluding the drought of 1995, the average yield has been 37.99 bu./acre vs. USDA currently at 40 bu./acre.Unless there is a large negative residual on the June 1 stocks, the 1999 soybean crop will be reduced even more, lowering the average yields for the past few seasons.Meal sales are expected at 50,000 to 100,000 and oil at 2,000 to 6,000 tonnes.

DAILY WHEAT OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: Chicago July wheat futures closing call: down 3 cents Friday. Kansas City July futures closing down 3 cents Friday. Funds were heavy sellers of wheat. Harvest is active and seasonals are down.Yields are disappointing in the southwest and when the harvest gains momentum in Kansas, yields below expectations will make more news.USDA is not likely to reduce acres for harvest as much as they will be by the final, and disease pressure shows up after the crop is harvested.International grains council figures were ignored as old news, but demand for wheat will be setting new records in the years ahead. Since total disappearance has risen by about 10 percent in five years, world disappearance can reach 650 million tonnes per year annually in another five. That increase is about 1,800 million bushels per year.

DAILY COTTON OUTLOOK

06/01/00 pm: July futures: up 25 Friday. The A Index rebounded 30 points to $61.15 overnight Wednesday, but is likely to fall overnight Thursday following the weakness in futures.Prices were under pressure due to forecasts for rain in west Texas over the weekend. NOAA also projected rain in the southeast next week.Markets overreact to nearby weather, with all of June-August still left ahead.Reports that China planted about the same area as last year have been circulating for several weeks. The government had targeted an 8 percent area planted reduction.

DAILY TECHNICAL COMMENTS

06/01/00 pm: July beans: first support 5.22, second 5.18. First resistance 5.25, second 5.29. Nov beans: first support 5.30, second 5.25. First resistance 5.34, second 5.39.

July meal: first support 176.43, second 173.93. First resistance 178.93, second 181.43. Dec meal: first support 173.53, second 171.53. First resistance 175.53, second 177.53.

July oil: first support .1604, second .1577. First resistance .1631, second .1658. Dec oil: first support .1703, second .1682. First resistance .1724, second .1745.

July corn: first support 2.24, second 2.19. First resistance 2.28, second 2.33. Dec corn: first support 2.42, second 2.37. First resistance 2.47, second 2.52.

July wheat: first support 2.67, second 2.59. First resistance 2.76, second 2.85. Dec wheat: first support 2.95, second 2.86. First resistance 3.03, second 3.12.

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