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Monday, 6 March 2017

Stas Update: Week XI, The Dash to Greatness

As we embark on the final two week sprint to the Challenge's end, let take a few moments to contemplate the path that lead us here. As there is no greater tool for contemplation than statistics, I have provided our beloved KPI summary out of the kindness of my heart.

You're welcome.

Of course, when I refer to "kindness off my heart", I'm really referring to the soul devouring dark arts of the Mathamagician and the required animal sacrifices and other less-than-reputable acts needed to distill the essence of miniature painting art into numbers with up to three decimal places. Some of you fools have begged that we go to four decimal places but not even I would risk such blasphemy.

Without further ado, lets us gaze upon then wonder that is our KPI Table and revel in our progress through 11 weeks:

AHPC VII: THE STATS ROUNDUP

KPI's:

Weeks Completed

2

4

6

8

11

13

Weeks Remaining

11

9

7

5

2

0

Participants w/ a Submission

47

81

96

96

96

Total Submissions

89

239

417

540

715

Total Points

7,711

21,906

36,632

48,905

63,127

Participation Rate

47%

81%

100%

100%

100%

Average per Submitter

164

270

382

509

658

Avg per Submission

87

92

88

91

88

Submitter % of Target Completed

16%

32%

48%

65%

83%

Projected Points

Submitters

50,122

69,950

78,836

78,465

74,135

Remaining Bouns Rounds

9,261

6,787

5,851

4,255

1,750

Non Submitters @ 25%

13,358

1,657

0

0

0

Projected Total Points

72,741

78,394

84,687

82,720

75,885

Figures Painted

28MM

Inf

1,100

2,339

3,788

4,801

6,168

Cav / Art

69

155

305

425

545

Vehicles

20

55

75

95

138

15MM

Inf

179

697

1,389

1,806

2,706

Cav / Art

28

178

285

361

513

Vehicles

16

63

132

167

319

6MM

Inf

479

1,051

1,223

1,464

2,040

Cav / Art

11

18

108

187

195

Vehicles

35

214

322

354

471

Score Distribution

28MM

84%

64%

60%

61%

61%

15MM

7%

11%

6%

12%

12%

6MM

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

Bonus Round "Bonus Points"

0%

11%

13%

9%

9%

Other Scales

4%

9%

17%

15%

15%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Impressive isn't it?

There have been 715 submissions from 96 stalwart participants through 11 weeks of grueling painting trials. The average submission in hovering around 88-90 points and has been remarkably consistent over the course of Challenge VII.

Total points to date stand at 63,127, and are a just a tiny bit below the final score from last year's challenge of 64,690 with two weeks to go.

We've been steadily inching up in terms of % of the cumulative targets met and now stand at 83%, although there have been rumors that this stat has been artificially inflated by scoundrels who have set their initial targets to low. I don't know who these statistical miscreants are but surely justice shall be done to them sometime.

What does the "Point-O-Projector" say will be the final score? Lets find out, please pass me the kittens to lubricate the gears and then turn that crank over there. Feel free to help me with the incantations and out pops a projected total score of 76K points. That's a new world record. Pretty darn inspiring. Of course that means we need to point 13K of points over the next two weeks so lets get cracking - paint, you beautiful bastards, PAINT! I would be very sad if you failed to meet the expectations of the Point-O-Projector.

A comparison to last year at week 11 confirms we're on course for an earth shattering result. I'm sure there will be lots of international media coverage and lucrative movie and book contracts for most of us. Those of you without professional representation should really consider engaging some now.

KPI's:

VII

VI

Weeks Completed

11

11

Weeks Remaining

2

2

Participants w/ a Submission

96

70

Total Submissions

715

590

Total Points

63,127

51,599

Participation Rate

100%

80%

Average per Submitter

658

716

Avg per Submission

88

100

Submitter % of Target Completed

83%

82%

Projected Points

Submitters

74,135

60,872

Remaining Bouns Rounds

1,750

2,500

Non Submitters @ 50%

0

302

Projected Total Points

75,885

63,613

Figures Painted

28MM

Inf

6,168

4,319

Cav / Art

545

471

Vehicles

138

82

15MM

Inf

2,706

1,293

Cav / Art

513

230

Vehicles

319

143

6MM

Inf

2,040

2,124

Cav / Art

195

362

Vehicles

471

205

Score Distribution

28MM

61%

53%

15MM

12%

8%

6MM

3%

4%

Bonus Round "Bonus Points"

9%

10%

Other Scales

15%

24%

Total

100%

100%

I know these stats are wonderful depictions and all of you think of them as beloved family members for the joy they bring to your drab existences, but there's one burning question that I haven't answered. One that all of you hunger to have the knowledge of. The question? - which day of the week/minion group is the best, of course. First, I'd like to say that it's difficult to pick a single winner as every day of the week/minion group is special and you all are winners in my view. In fact there are participation trophies.... Ah screw that crap, lets get to the numbers and see who wins.

I adjusted the summary tables to sum on Minion/Day of the week and was surprised by the results - mathematical science has proven that Monday, indeed, RULES!!!! How do I know this? Prepare to be amazed:

Minion

# Challengers

Target Pts

Actual Pts

% Target Met

% of Total Points

Pts/Challenger

Ovr/Undr Index

MilesR

16

17,950

17,603

98.06%

27.81%

1,100.16

1.67

Curt

14

14,250

11,980

84.07%

18.92%

855.71

1.30

PhilH/SylvainR

17

13,450

11,103

82.55%

17.54%

653.12

0.99

AlanD/PaulOG

16

8,900

9,039

101.56%

14.28%

564.94

0.86

ByronM

17

10,450

7,142

68.34%

11.28%

420.09

0.64

DavidB

15

9,950

5,881

59.11%

9.29%

392.07

0.59

Any Day

1

1,000

557

55.70%

0.88%

557.00

0.84

Grand Total

96

75,950

63,304

83.35%

100.00%

659.42

1.00

It seems that the Monday group started with a bit of an advantage as it had, by far, the highest target set of points (somewhere I hear a Snow Lord chuckling), so looking at total points would be unfair and Monday towers over the other days of the week. We could look at % of target completed and see that shockingly Monday comes in second to another day of the week. Further analysis points out the rather low target from that group so this result must be tossed as it detracts from the Monday Rocks messaging.

What to do - Ahh the over/under index which compares the actual points per painter from each group vs the average of the entire challenge - any score over 1.00 indicates your ahead of the pack. What does the math show - Monday crushes the competition with an index score of 1.67! It just can't be any clearer Monday's Awesomeness is record shattering. Legally, I'm pretty sure this performance means the other days of the week owe the Monday crew some form of tribute.

Some of the more sharp eyed of you may have noticed the total points in that last table are slightly higher than the others. That's because there were a few more Monday entries that were entered before I pulled in the the last table and I was just too lazy to update the rest.

Well there you have it, week 11 is in the books and we've got 2 weeks left to paint 13K points. Why the hell are you still reading this drivel? You've got mini's to paint. DO NOT DISAPPOINT THE PAINTING GODS!!!!!!!

While I cannot in all faith concur with your final analysis that Monday is the one day to rule them all (and I objectively point you to the awesomeness of the Tuesday % targets met - no doubt inspired by the handsomeness of that day's minions...), I heartily agree with your plea to "paint, you beautiful bastards, PAINT!" Accordingly, and to ensure that the sacrifices of those lubricating kittens is not for nothing, I have upped my target for a second time during this challenge

Maybe Alex knows of some of his countrymen who have the capability and experience to hack the stats to give the correct result?

As things stand, to use a political metaphor, we are winning the "popular vote" but they have the lead in the "electoral college". I suspect some sort of gerrymandering shenanigans about their targets may have occurred ;)

An excellent summary as usual, apart from the false news media bias that we've come to expect from the mysterious "Monday crew" whose links to the Illuminati, the Great Cthulu and the Scooby gang has long been suspected. These links will surely be exposed as time moves on, but in the meantime, excellent painting one and all!