2019: Finally, the race begins

I have in the past week seen not a few partisans frame the 2019 presidential elections in strictly binary times: good versus the bad; saint versus sinners etc. Not a few, I must confess, have somewhat framed it as one battlebetween anti-corruption crusaders and that formless, internet tribe that calleditself the Bring Back our Corruptionmovement –drum majors for the freeloading ancien regime that Nigerians sent packing in 2015.

Today, withAtiku Abubakaron the ballot for the Peoples Democratic Party, a man who supposedly wears corruption on his shoulder like an epaulet, it seems to me that that issues underlying the contest would certainly not be framed so narrowly. Of course, in a race, which only few months ago, seemed one-sided if not entirely closed, the nation should consider itself indebted to the TurakinAdamawafor finally injecting the long expected verve.

And so here we are: Atiku Abubakar versus Muhammadu Buhari. As The Nation’s highly esteemed columnist Idowu Akinlotan argued with his usual candour in his column on Sunday, had the APC a choice in the matter, Atiku, the Turakin Adamawa would certainly be one opponent they would rather not have on the ballot. That Atiku is a formidable opponent is certainly undeniable. In fact, had the ruling APC ever nursed the illusion the 2019 presidential contest would be something of a cakewalk, the choice ofAtiku has since changed that; today, the challenge that he representsis certainly one that the APC can afford to ignore to its peril.

Yet, there is something intriguing about the latest quest by Atiku. This was an individual who flunked the APC primaries in 2014. Never mind that he has been a perennial sojourner in virtually all the leading parties in the quest to realise his presidential dream. Add to that the baggage – corruption – that most Nigerians revile, the question of his electability immediately pops up.

Well, that is the individual that PDP has thrust forward for the highest office. My colleague Segun Ayobolu had raised the poser in his back page column in this newspaper on Saturday: Is this the Atiku moment? That Atiku’s quest has since moved from a wild proposition to a distinct possibility seems to me not just a measure of how easily the tides can change in the affairs of a complex country like Nigeria, but how easily too success can be mismanaged, this time by the APC.

Proof of course is the near alarm in the camp of the ruling APC since his emergence as the PDP flag bearer! Just imagine the number of tanks already rolled out even when the real battle is not even joined – yet!

We must of course understand what makes the Atiku challenge a viable proposition . If I may make the preliminary point: nothing makes the Atiku candidacy any less sellable than of Mai Gaskiya, the ramrod, Daura-born infantry General who in 2014 was painted by the PDP as unelectable: put it simply to the issue of messaging!

I have heard many dismiss the Atiku surge as merely underlying the craving by corrupt elements for the return of the ancien regime under which slush funds are freely shared among the elites. They are right to the extent that there are no free funds anymore for anyone to share – thanks to the Treasury Single Account (TSA), which ensures that entities which hitherto operated outside the strictures of the appropriation process are now brought into the orbit.

However, it would certainly be the height of conceit for the administration to frame issues so narrowly. To be sure, the economy is certainly not in great shape despite the vast improvements in oil earnings. In any event, there is a sense in which the economic environment, despite the ambitious reforms being undertaken, is still light years of what is needed. A part of the administration’s unflattering scorecard is the ‘emergence’ as global capital of poverty; it certainly says a lot about the efficaciousness of current therapies that the population of out-of-school children has since jumped from 10 to 13 million. Despite oil prices being above $80 a barrels, the economy continues to wobble. For a country whose economy in the last three years has been in reverse gear, the kind of appetite for development that one would expect is to put it mildly – missing. Where new thinking is indicated in our public finances and project implementation, what is more apparent are old wines being put in old wineskins and then labelled as new!

The result, which is the ‘stasis’ across the board would ordinarily suffice to feed the current angst.

Agreed, the seeds of the rot were sown by previous governments including the PDP. But then, the Buhari administration has had the whole of three years to fix some of them. Had the administration shown greater verve and dexterity, there is some chance that the current regression could have been mitigated. Again, the charge has always been – and this is not entirely without some merit – that the Buhari administration has tended to operate like the famous Red Sea – neither open nor welcoming to ideas different from its own. For a country so gifted with diversity, it is unfortunate that the administration has neither tapped into this nor reflected this in its policies and programmes.

Indeed, had the administration been less insular, it would probably have availed itself of different perspectives other than its own – in dealing with some of the challenges facing the country.

Is Atiku therefore the answer?

Here, my simple answer would be that there is simply no evidence to support this. So much for the hype about being business savvy, Atiku is neither in the mould of a Dangote nor in the class of Mike Adenuga or Oba Otudeko – individuals that have either built or are building world-class institutions. In any case, while a fair knowledge of the economy will be a clear advantage, these are hardly requirements to run a country like Nigeria where talents could easily be assembled and pressed to work.

Although it has been said – and this would be a strong point if true – that Atiku has a way with talents, at this time, that is merely conjectural – yet to be proven.

In any case nothing says that the Buhari administration cannot spring surprises. And this, it must!