How London's voters line up

They are mostly female, they favour fringe parties and they're the best hope Ken Livingstone has. The 32 per cent of Londoners who say that they might still change their minds could now decide whether 1 May will plunge Labour into meltdown.

With the race so close, whoever lands these floating voters will be moving into City Hall. And Livingstone can be cheered that more Londoners think the capital is thriving (34 per cent) than deteriorating (29 per cent) after eight years.

None the less the 39 per cent who consider their city 'dangerous' helps explain why crime, along with transport, dominates this campaign. And economic gloom has affected the mood: almost half of Londoners expect their family to suffer either 'a great deal' or 'a fair amount' if the economy worsens over the next year.

While a resilient 29 per cent still expect house prices to go up, this view is more prevalent among people renting. In other words, they may be expressing pessimism about ever being able to buy.

In this volatile atmosphere, the second preference votes of Paddick supporters will be critical -and they are splitting 52 per cent in Livingstone's favour, against 36 per cent for Johnson. Such signals may help explain why 43 per cent of Londoners still think Livingstone will win against 28 per cent believing Johnson will. Only 3 per cent of voters think Brian Paddick could win.

Another factor is turnout. Counting preferences from all voters, the first round produces a dead heat between Livingstone and Johnson on 42 per cent each. Among people certain to vote, a more reliable indicator, Johnson gets a 6-point lead after the first round. The more voters turn out, the more likely Livingstone is to claw back votes. The challenge for both candidates now is to ensure every last vote before 1 May.