The Process Report

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The Process Versus Orioles Pitchers

This worked last time, so here it goes again—pretend everything printed below is a lie:

Guthrie really works off the fastball, which sits around 91-93 MPH but can shoot up to the mid-90s when needed. He throws two pitches against righties, his fastball and a slider –which gets whiffs and grounders alike— while adding a changeup against lefties. Despite the change, he is considerably better against same-handed batters (700 OPS versus righties and 793 versus lefties over the last three seasons). Once a guy gets on base, he’ll curb the fastball usage just a bit. Shouldn’t be too much of a hassle with the Rays’ ability to stack left-handed batters against him early and often.

Brad Bergesen

Bergesen has issues with left-handed hitters. He tends to be more of a groundball guy than he has shown this season, but that could be because of a small sample size. He works off his low-90s fastball and will sling a slider and change depending on who is up. Frankly, the Rays should be able to touch him up again.

Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta will likely claim the fifth spot in the rotation. He’s a well-built righty (think Wade Davis) who rides a low-to-mid 90s fastball hard and heavy. Arrieta’s secondary stuff needs improvement (left-handers in particular teed off to the tune of .315/.394/.505), but the Orioles are probably pleased with the numbers turned in over his last eight starts versus those of his first 10 (3.78 ERA and 1.80 K/BB versus 5.47 ERA and 0.76 K/BB).

So far in 2011, Arrieta has continued the uptrend with an increase in strikeouts, decrease in walks, and increase in effectiveness versus left-handed batters. Maybe those are small-sample mirages backed by pitching against the Twins, Royals, and Mariners in three of his eight starts.