If the elections in the Netherlands go as expected, Jeroen Dijsselbloem stands to lose not just one job, but two: his position as Dutch finance minister and his coveted role as president of the Eurogroup.

The Dutchman’s impending dethronement has set off a scramble for the second seat, as one of the most high-profile positions of power in Brussels comes up for grabs. But it’s looking increasingly likely that, when the contest is decided by a vote of the group’s 19 members, the choice will ultimately be between two men.

One is Dijsselbloem’s longtime rival for the position, Spanish Finance Minister Luis De Guindos. The other — if he can convince his colleagues to overhaul the way the group is run — is Dijsselbloem himself.

“It’s Dijsselbloem’s ambition to continue both jobs, finance minister and Eurogroup president,” said Eurogroup spokesperson Michel Reijns. “The first position depends on the Dutch elections outcome, of course. The second, his term ends January 2018 and he would like to stay the whole term.”

Dijsselbloem, a lanky 50-year-old Dutchman, is popular among his colleagues in the quasi-formal club of eurozone finance ministers, and he is widely seen as having navigated the crisis in the currency zone with diligence and poise.

But the group’s rules state its leader must be a sitting finance minister, and for Dijsselbloem — who has overseen its powwows since early 2013 — those days seem to be numbered. Polls predict his Labor Party is due for a pounding when voters cast their ballots on March 15, making it unlikely he will be able to retain his seat in government.

The Eurogroup is where the eurozone’s 19 finance ministers coordinate the currency union’s financial and economic policies. The club has played a central role in negotiating and monitoring Greece’s €86-billion bailout package, which is once again expected to top its agenda when it meets on Thursday.

With less than two months before the Netherlands goes to the polls, competing candidates for the group’s leadership are already jockeying for position, buttressing their claims with the Bubble’s arcane criteria — nationality, political group affiliation, contacts, gravitas, sometimes even competence.

Those who champion De Guindos, a dour-faced but personable economist close to Spain’s conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, build their case largely on his country’s low profile in the EU’s corridors of power.

The veteran conservative lost narrowly to Dijsselbloem in July 2015, when the Spaniard’s eurozone peers passed him over in favor of the Dutchman.

The snub left Madrid licking its wounds with little power within the EU’s institutions, something Rajoy’s government is determined to change, according to a Spanish finance ministry source.

“We are under-represented in the European institutions, and that is something that is recognized by many across the EU and it will have to be corrected,” the source said.

The official declined to single out the Eurogroup’s presidency as a means to amend the 2015 snub, as multiple seats of power are expected to open up in the coming 18 months — namely in the European Central Bank, the European Investment Bank, and the European Stability Mechanism.

Running out of Socialists

De Guindos’ ascension, however, would be a blow for another Brussels constituency: Socialist politicians fighting for political relevance as their stars fade across the Continent.

For years, Brussels’ pillars of influence were parceled out between Conservative and Socialist lawmakers, according to a carefully calibrated and fiercely defended division of power among the EU’s largest political groupings.

“On a personal basis, everyone is very happy with Jeroen. He runs meetings in a very good order and gets results when they’re possible. He’s efficient. He doesn’t ignore people”— A Eurogroup diplomat

That cozy arrangement was upended last week, when the European Parliament voted in Antonio Tajani as its new president. The conservative Italian’s victory put the EU’s three major institutions — Parliament, Commission and Council — in the hands of conservatives. According to the Socialists, this has upset the balance in town.

“It seems as if a ravenous appetite for power is what is keeping European conservatives together,” said Udo Bullman, the vice president of the Socialists & Democrats group. “Bringing all significant EU bodies and institutions under the control of one political family void of a convincing plan for Europe would be a fatal sign.”

The shift in the landscape has left the leftists scrambling to retain some form of influence. In the Eurogroup, that means scouring its membership for potential successors to the Dutch finance minister.

In the event of a Dijsselbloem-exit, the only Socialist candidates would be France’s Michel Sapin, Slovakia’s Peter Kažimír, Italy’s Pier Carlo Padoan, and Malta’s Edward Scicluna, multiple officials said.

Normally, Socialists would see Padoan as Dijsselbloem’s rightful heir. But there is a recognition that few would accept another Italian in a position of power, multiple sources said.

In addition to Tajani as head of the Parliament, Italy’s Mario Draghi and Federica Mogherini lead the European Central Bank and the EU’s High Representation for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, respectively.

France, meanwhile, will go to the polls this year, leaving no guarantee that Sapin will be able to see out the full mandate. Malta, a small country few believe should lead the Eurogroup, is also headed to elections in 2018.

That leaves Slovakia’s Kažimír. But on January 9, he distanced himself from the prospect of picking up the job in a tweet saying Dijsselbloem “should serve full second term, no matter [the Dutch election] results.”

“We’re running out of Socialists,” said an EU official close to the matter. “The [conservatives] have sewn up every job in Brussels.”

A full-time president

That’s why Dijsselbloem may yet have a chance. The same turbulence that is likely to push him out the door in The Hague will almost certainly lead to a long post-election transition, as political parties in the Netherlands struggle to form a governing coalition.

Dijsselbloem is likely to stay on as finance minister during this period, giving him time to put in place an alternative solution for the Eurogroup.

The Dutchman’s performance as president has impressed many in Brussels. His election in 2013 was a long shot. He was seen by many as young and inexperienced, handed the job mostly because there was no other candidate who managed not to fall afoul of the group’s competing vetoes.

His firm handling of the Greek crisis in 2015 brought strong endorsements from his peers, like Kažimír. Other sources within the Eurogroup also concur with the Slovak’s sentiment, heralding the Dutchman’s work as “outstanding.”

“On a personal basis, everyone is very happy with Jeroen,” a eurozone diplomat said, requesting anonymity. “He runs meetings in very good order and gets results when they’re possible. He’s efficient. He doesn’t ignore people.”

Meanwhile, the threat of a conservative blowout has some in Brussels considering an alternative solution to keep Dijsselbloem in power.

The Eurogroup has plans in development to establish a full-time president, as part of a more integrated eurozone by 2025. The occupier of the office would not have to be a finance minister, but would be appointed through a vote within the group.

The plans to deepen the eurozone’s monetary union will be fleshed out in greater detail this spring. But Council sources said the proposal for a full-time Eurogroup president, as part of the eurozone plans, could be fast-forwarded if a decision were made to keep Dijsselbloem in power.

“[A Eurogroup] chairmanship was envisioned as a late thing,” an EU official said. “But in extremis, it could be pushed forward in order to ensure continuity.”

“The rules say that finance ministers from the Eurogroup pick their president, but they don’t say it has to be one of them” — Jeroen Dijsselbloem

Sources close to the matter said the reform could be implemented through a “clear consensus” of the eurozone’s finance ministers to set up a full-time presidency.

If successful, Dijsselbloem could even stretch his tenure to the end of October 2019 to coincide with the end of the Council and Commission administrations. The first talks on the matter are expected to take place during the Eurogroup meeting on March 20, just after the Dutch elections.

Dijsselbloem has been largely tight-lipped over his plans for the future. Yet, in an interview with Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad in October, he hinted he’d be open to continuing on as Eurogroup president, regardless of election results in March. “The rules say that finance ministers from the Eurogroup pick their president, but they don’t say it has to be one of them,” he said.

But if a speech he delivered in Brussels two days before this week’s meeting of the Eurogroup is any indication, he has little intention of leaving voluntarily.

Speaking at an event titled “The Future of Europe,” Dijsselbloem outlined his desire “as chair of the Eurogroup” to “start a dialogue between all EU countries … about stronger future relations and further integration,” in response to Brexit and rising populism.

Whatever the outcome of the Dutch elections, he just might have a chance of seeing that pledge through.

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Filippo

I want to express to all the CEOs of tax evading corporations my sadness for such a heavy and painful lost. I know, it won’t be easy to find another minister of finances like he was, always ready to listen, to help full heartedly, generous and empathizing. But life goes on, my dear friends. There is always Luxembourg in the neighborhood

Posted on 1/26/17 | 10:06 AM CET

Alexandra Lobão

To finally get rid of this person would be marvellous news. This man, the yes man of Merkel and Schauble, has done a lot of harm to millions of Europeans. Many convicted criminals did much less harm than him. He should appear before a court.

Posted on 1/26/17 | 3:50 PM CET

Blackeyebart

Dijsselboem should be sacked today.

When the Greek Crisis blew up the EU had to choose who it was in the business of supporting. They tossed up between the Greek people and the German and French Banks and chose to support the Banks. The banks gained almost nothing from this deal. They did not get paid and never will. The Greek people however “were made an example of”.

The new leader of the EU should set out to add value to the EU. This means being aware of and focused on improving the lives of, the ordinary EU Citizen. Putting the PR need of banks before real people improves no-ones life – except their own, Dijsselboem has shown he is both incompetent, unprincipled and a hypocrite. Isn’t that enough?

Sack him now!

Posted on 1/27/17 | 1:34 AM CET

Filippo

@Blackeyebart
You should me more polite to a man that shaped a tax framework in his country that now is held as an example in many countries, like Panama, Andorra, Trinidad and Tobago, Cayman Islands and many others

Posted on 1/27/17 | 10:04 AM CET

jodocus2

Trust the Eurosceptic peanut gallery to slag off Dijsselbloem, mainly based on evidence on par with Facebook postings in reliability.

Mr. Dijsselbloem has proven one of the more effective finance ministers. It’s not his work that draws criticism, no it’s practically all guilt by association. If you can actually talk about guilt, that is.

There is nothing wrong with Tax Rulings in principle (as even Eurosceptics will realise). They have nothing whatsoever to do with tax evasion, and in recent EU legislation they must be made public to other EU members so as to prevent abuse.

In fact … harmonisation of corporate tax rules across the EU plus a single (shared) EU-wide tax registration database would do away with the problem in one sweep. A topic however that’s guaranteed to bring volcanic eruptions from EU-sceptics.

We see this pattern emerge more often on part of EU sceptics: level the usual barrage of demagogic criticism at (often existing) EU shortcomings, whilst using an even greater level of demagoguery to *prevent* the most obvious solution to the problem, such as shared tax registers.

Of course it’s much more exciting to throw mud and to engage in political arson than to come up with any sensible comments. As we can see from most posts on politico.eu. .

Posted on 1/27/17 | 11:49 AM CET

Filippo

@jodocus
Correct! I will take example from you. We need not to shout out loud blatantly but to understand the real nature and the causes of any issue. Just like you do! And how cute and sweet you are…of course there is nothing wrong in tax ruling…this is why we invented black lists: to point out the best practices! And to help any Ceo to decide where to rent a room with a telephone line and a lady behind a desk to pay taxes there, of course Yes, until recently it was secret but, after all, what does the principle of no taxation without representation ask us? To make taxation secret, of course.
And yes, our dear old Jerry did a pretty good job, especially when he asks toughly to Greece or Italy to foster the rule of law and fight tax evasion, while hosting their companies to pay taxes in his country.
And I guess then when it comes to a 0,0001 violation of deficit you suddenly become much less cute and ready to understand, don’t you?

Posted on 1/27/17 | 12:50 PM CET

Filippo

I would add that we must stop not to trust our partners. It’s obvious that if they kept it secret until now is just a matter of politeness, but they are ready to share any tax register possible. Now all we have to do is wait for the regulation on harminisation and all the problems, that the usual erosceptics populists use to call freeriding unloyal and disgusting attitudes while they are only ‘problems, will be sweeped away.
I just hope that you, being so nice and ready to understand the reasons of your counterpart unlike the populists, won’t mind if, in the meantime, we use the fiscal compact text to wrap clams at the seafood market. It’s only to save paper and defend our forests

Posted on 1/27/17 | 2:58 PM CET

Alexandra

Hey Jodocus2, what makes you think there’s only “one way”, “one narrative” for Europe? Clearly, you ignore the real meaning of Eurosceptic.