A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.

Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.

Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of AfricaA tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.

I think 93L will develop into TS before coming ashore. 98L will develop pretty quickly and become a major hurricane. Storms that form this quickly are just about guaranteed to curve out to sea. Because of the influence of 98L, I am not so confident that 97L will develop. 98L just might suck all of the heat and energy from 97L.

97L and 98L have a lot of space between them for them to both develop.

Quoting vital1:Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.

I live in Hattiesburg and have been lurking a while. I have posted a few times but forgot my login so had to get another, LOL. 97L is making me nervous. I have plenty of food but not enough water. I will have enough by next week if this thing keeps coming this way.

Hi There, 1703. vital1 Welcome to what a few understand and a lot more wish they did/could. Well I just signed in and evening everybody, it seems we have a bit of a train of storms of interest, pulling across the Atlantic at the moment and probably for the foreseeable future! I cant help wondering where the buffers are for these ones?

Quoting CaneHunter031472:Latest GFS run now point at LA / TX landfall proving what many of us have being saying here since yesterday. Too early to tell and everyone from the East Coast to Texas Mexico border need to be in alert but not alarmed.

The Barometer Bob Show this week August 18, 2011. We will hear from Joe Bastardi from WeatherBell.Com, and the up coming hurricane frenzy that the models are indicating.Rob from RainmanWeather.Com will have another giveaway. Also Weather Undergrounds very own Levi..... Whats happening in the Tropics, and more. .We will be talking Tropics and our Weather 101 segment!

I believe 98L will be named first before we see 97L become a depression and if 93L can't form a close circulation because it running out of time due to proximity to land i see 98L as Harvey and 97L as Irene before reaching the Antilles. 98L will be a fish storm as it's moving northwest it reminds me of hurricane Julia (2010)

Quoting MississippiWx:If recon were in 93L, we would already have TD8 or TS Harvey. Hopefully 93L doesn't strengthen quickly into a minimal hurricane because the people of Belize will have no warning time.

The NHC, Univ of Co. and the other Major "CASTERS" have made there predictions for the 2011 hurricane season. Naming Harvey would help to keep the predictions in check. They dont want to revise there predictions in Sept. as they have done in the past several years.

Quoting vital1:Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.

Quoting vital1:Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.

Quoting vital1:Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.

Hi everyone. I've been lurking for a couple of years and decided to sign up so I could ignore the trolls and ask questions from time to time. I love reading everything you contribute to this blog and have learned quite a bit from all of you. I'm in MS so I have an interest in weather from hurricanes to tornadoes to ice storms.

It's too far out for anyone to panic or be convinced it will hit Tx or LA or anywhere else yet. But it's not too far out that you shouldn't have your supplies mainly in and ready and know what you'll do or where you'll go. It's time to be realistic, not dramatic.

It's had doom on the menu for the gulf coast the past couple days. And you know what they say about portion control nowadays. I certainly don't think I'd like the full plate. Personally, I'd take a half-order of doom medium-rare and a side of working traffic lights.