Last Fall we tried to handicap the new show race in a variety of ways, but we always struggled to rank the shows from different networks as a group with the data we had available. Because a 6m viewer show would be headed for a quick cancellation at CBS, but for the CW it would be their top show. After trying a few metrics, I think we've found something we'll use next Fall that, at least for now, I'll call the TVbytheNumbers Cancellation Index.

Applying the Cancellation Index to shows from this season's results showed a pretty definitive line above which a show was renewed and below which a show was very vulnerable to cancellation. To get the Index value for each show, I took its season to date adults 18-49 viewership for its standard timeslot airings only and divided it by the season to date average adults 18-49 viewership for the show's own network.

If the show was at or above 93% of its networks average results for adults 18-49 it was pretty safe. Only 3 shows above that level were cancelled, and one, Oprah's Big Give, was only cancelled because Ms. Winfrey wanted it gone, ABC would have welcomed it back.

A number of shows stand out, particularly Bionic Woman. Minus the hype, it didn't perform that badly. Maybe if it had entered the season with modest expectations instead of being the hope to save NBC it might have survived. Big Shots fans might also cry foul. However, one thing it's hard for our data to take into account is the implied benefits of a good lead-in that were squandered. That might be a reason for Big Shots, Moonlight & Jericho demise. Moonlight fans note that your show had the lowest Index of any scripted show in the CBS line up (and Dexter, brought in to fill strike holes).