Altmire Poll: Altmire Increases Lead Despite Court Challenge

Written by Keegan Gibson, Managing Editor

A freshly released internal poll from Jason Altmire’s campaign shows the Democrat with a 55 to 31 point lead. The poll’s release is intended to combat the notion that Mark Critz’s recent challenge to Altmire’s nominating petitions diminished his standing in the district.

Indeed a significant portion of the polling memo deals with the court case.

40 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that Critz was, “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful,” while 33 percent disagreed. In Altmire’s portion of the district, Critz’s unfavorable rose from 6 percent in January to 17 percent today.

Altmire, meanwhile, has strengthened his base of support. His lead in his current portion of the district has grown from 49 points (66 percent Altmire / 17 percent Critz) to 61 points (73 percent Altmire / 12 percent Critz).

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 primary election voters in the 12th district. Interviews were conducted between March 12-14, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. The margin of error is + 4.9 percent for all voters and higher for subgroups.

Here’s the full memo:

Since January, Jason Altmire has increased his lead in the Democratic primary for the newly-drawn 12th CD in Pennsylvania. Critz’s attempt to decide the election via a lawsuit has backfired on him, and Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50 percent Altmire / 34 percent Critz) to a 24-point lead today (55 percent Altmire / 31 percent Critz).

Altmire has grown his lead by 8 points and has made big gains with his current constituents.

• Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50 percent Altmire / 34 percent Critz) to a 24-point lead today (55 percent Altmire / 31 percent Critz). • Much of these gains came among voters who live in Altmire’s current district. Among these Democrats, who make up 64 percent of the likely primary electorate, his lead has grown from 49 points (66 percent Altmire / 17 percent Critz) to 61 points (73 percent Altmire / 12 percent Critz).

Critz’s legal tactics have driven up his negatives, especially among Altmire’s current constituents.

• Voters who said they were following the lawsuit story very closely were turned off by Critz’s tactics. 49 percent of them say they believe Critz was “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful”, while 45 percent disagreed.

• Altmire’s constituents were also against Critz trying to deny their current Congressman the ballot through the courts. 40 percent say they believe Critz was “playing dirty politics that I find distasteful”, while 33 percent disagreed.

• Critz’s legal tactics have damaged him among voters in Altmire’s current district. o His unfavorable rating among them has gone from 6 percent in January to 17 percent today. o At the same time, his favorable rating among them has remained unchanged at 21 percent. Altmire’s own popularity has increased at the same time Critz’s negatives have gone up.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 Primary Election voters in PA CD-12. Interviews were conducted between March 12-14, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. The margin of error is + 4.9 percent for all voters and higher for subgroups.

Appearing frequently on Fox News (where I only went after discerning that I could NOT rely on NBC or CNN to deliver anything journalistic) has burnished Jason’s credentials as a true fiscal conservative with a moderate social position. His exactly-in-the-middle voting record lets MOST cnstituents feel they’re being represented rather than being commandeered by either party.