The Middling Kingdom

By 2040, China will have more people over 65 than the U.S. has people. It stands to be the first global power to get old before getting rich.

By

Howard W. French

June 26, 2013 4:27 p.m. ET

Outside of world wars and market cataclysms, the relative trajectories of major powers usually trace gradual curves rather than abruptly rising or falling. After the 2008 financial crisis, however, commentators in China and to a lesser extent in the West suggested that the U.S. had hit an inflection point. China, they said, was zooming toward parity as a world power, and perhaps more.

In recent months, for somewhat less obvious reasons including Beijing's increasing pushiness in East Asia and the country's just-completed...