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High school football participation has 'peaked,' CU Boulder prof finds

Study: Concussions, controversy will lead to continuing decline in numbers

By Mitchell Byars

Staff Writer

Posted:
09/26/2017 06:46:00 AM MDT

Updated:
09/26/2017 06:32:31 PM MDT

Monarch High School s Alex Waschak looks for his next person to block during Tuesday s practice at the high school in Louisville. (Paul Aiken / Staff Photographer)

A new University of Colorado analysis has found that concerns about concussions and other controversies surrounding the National Football League will lead to a further decline in the number of high schoolers playing football.

The study, conducted by professor Roger Pielke, the director of CU's Sports Governance Center, found that the number of high schoolers playing football grew steadily from 1998 to 2009, but has since been in a "notable decline" that is likely to continue.

"We're at the cusp of an inflection point," Pielke said. "It's really hard to talk about the long term or bigger significance of a trend, but after two decades of steady, uninterrupted increase, it is notable that the numbers started going down."

In the 2008-09 academic year, 1.14 million high school boys played football. In 2016-17, that number had come down to 1.09 million. The percentage of age-eligible high school boys playing football also declined, from 13.2 percent in 2012-2013 to 12.7 percent in 2016-2017.

But Phil Bravo, the head football coach with Monarch High in Louisville, said while they saw declining football participation in 2015 and 2016, they saw increased freshman participation this season.

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"It's rebounded significantly, almost double what we normally see," Bravo said. "I don't know if you could single out a single reason behind that."

Pielke said that the sport overall remains healthy, even if more and more players will come from certain regions where the culture and tradition of Friday night lights outweigh other concerns. He pointed out that, even at this current rate of decline, there would be 800,000 high school students playing football in 2030.

Fairview High's Jacob Fenton stiff-arms Alek Kahn during a game against Boulder High on Sept. 8 at Recht Field in Boulder. (Jeremy Papasso / Staff Photographer)

"The rate of decline is not the sort of thing that would worry the NFL or college programs," Pielke said. "You could find 1,800 NFL players from a pool of 800,000. Right now, there is not an indication the sport is in crisis or going away. But the dynamic has changed."

Concussion concerns

Pielke said concerns over concussions have played a part in the declining numbers.

"There is this general sense that the concern about the health risk to children is one of the reasons for the decline," he said.

Concussions, and specifically chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), have been a growing concern as more and more science points to football leading to serious head trauma for former players.

A recent study by Boston University found that 99 percent of players who donated their brains for postmortem research had CTE, and researchers recently found a "severe" case of CTE in former NFL tight end and convicted murderer Aaron Hernandez, who killed himself in prison in April at the age of 27.

Locally, two former CU players — Rashaan Salaam and Drew Wahlroos — killed themselves within the past year, with CTE being floated as a possible contributing factor in both cases.

But Bravo said that while parents are increasingly aware of the risk, coaches are also better equipped to address injury concerns.

"High school coaches across America I think have done a better job of restricting contact in practice and being better educated in terms of tackling protocol and use of your helmet," he said. "Another big factor is the upgrade in protection equipment in this day and age. Compared to when I was playing, oh my gosh, it's day and night."

Pielke said that the frequency of more high-profile deaths and findings of continued research into the effects of football on the brain will likely determine if and how fast participation in the sport continues to dip.

"As we get more research, there will be a better understanding of what the issues are, and that could cut a number of different ways," he said. "We don't know what's going to happen in the future with other players. We don't know what might happen on the field. If someone dies on the field, would that change everything? There are a lot of uncertainties."

'An early warning'

While he thinks it is a smaller part of the decline of football participation, Pielke also pointed to the current political turmoil surrounding the NFL, which has in the past abided by a "stick to sports" mantra.

Last September, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick sat down during the playing of the national anthem in protest of police shootings of unarmed black men, and took a knee during ensuing anthems that season.

That sparked other players taking a knee in protest, which in turn has fueled its own backlash by some who thought the gesture was disrespectful to the military, including President Donald Trump, who on Friday said players who knelt during the anthem were "sons of bitches" who should be "fired."

Sunday and Monday's slate of NFL games saw players, coaches and owners engage in various forms of protest over Trump's remarks, and those protests in turn have drawn the ire of some fans.

Pielke said that the backlash might not have an immediate effect on participation, but said that if those politics or the NFL's problems with handling domestic violence cases causes parents to stop tuning in to games on Sunday, it might affect how future generations view the game.

"When it comes to youth sports, I don't think people think about the corruption of FIFA or the politics of the NFL when a kid is playing Pop Warner," Pielke said. "But if the league is less popular, you are not out there emulating your hero."

While there are some issues with the game, Bravo — who has been a high school head coach for 32 years — said he thinks football participation will bounce back.

"I think we're hitting a phase of high awareness of certain medical issues associated with the game of football," Bravo said. "But as coaches and players become better educated, I think the game will work its way back into a higher level of participation."

Pielke said ultimately, the numbers simply show that the football is at a possible turning point.

"It's important to have this conversation," he said. "The fans, the programs at high school and college and the NFL have a chance to shape the future of football. They have an early warning that something might be off, and the future of the sport could be based on the decisions that are made.

"But if I was a betting man, I would say that in 2030 there would be fewer kids playing football than today, and the Super Bowl is still going to be the most-watched show on TV. There is some nuance here, but I think football is going to be around for a while."

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