Monday, September 8, 2014

(The Big Disrupt) Driverless Cars: Why Driverless Cars Will Hit London Streets Sooner Than You Think

Three months ago, a sea of
black cabs clogged the heart of London for an afternoon and stage was set,
Black cabs drivers were showing their teeth against Uber and media outlets both
sides of the pond were already framing London Cabbies show of force as another
instance of cabbies, in the words of its statement in response to Germany
banning the service nationwide “put(ting) the brakes on change”[1].
However the truth is darn more complex than Uber and proponents will have you
believe. The real reason behind cabbies showing up in number in the heart of London
had nothing to do with the threat Uber offers to their business but Transport
for London (TFL) apparently preferential treatment towards the San Francisco
cab hailing firm.

Just two months before the
protest, the Licensed Private Hire Car Association (LPHCA) publicly urged TFL
to force Uber to follow the same laws and regulations it’s members have to
comply with and the TFL is tasked with enforcing in the first place. However, Leon
Daniels, TFL’s Managing director for surface transport, pretty much sent a clear
message that black cab drivers in the capital should adapt to the new
innovations in a bid to “offer passengers the potential of better and more convenient
services”[2]
However, as Daniels knows, offering passengers a better service wasn’t the
issue a hand as a growing number of cabbies are already using app friendly
bookings to get fares.

In May, the Licensed Taxi
Drivers Association (LTDA) expressed their dismay against Uber as from their
viewpoint the the taxi hailing app company was circumventing a law that’s allows
only taxis to have meters by through the use of their app that according to
LTDA, basically mimicked the function of a taximeter and was therefore illegal.
However, just like the LPHCA, the LTDA real aminus was reserved for the TFL who
in their eyes has so far demurred to the Google and Goldman Sachs backed
company. Steve Mcnamara, predicted a month in advance that the protest was going
to happen as he made that his problem wasn’t with Uber but TFL and their treatment
of the company as he stressed “"I'd be happy if Uber complied with the
same rules as everybody else. All we are asking for is a level playing
field." To complain about these issues, there's going to be a mass
demonstration in central London of between 8,000 and 12,000 black cabs, who
will cause "chaos, congestion and confusion"”[3].

After a month of pressure by
the LTDA and LPHCA, instead of ruling outright whether Uber’s use of their app
to calculate costs in their driver’s vehicle was permitted, TFL sought a High
Court was whether Uber’s app was legal or not. This not only confirmed what the
LTDA and LPHCA already suspected, TFL was less than willing to take firm hand
against Uber but as the BBC reported “ TFL
does not believe the app breaks the rules”[4].
TFL were of the view that Uber weren’t breaking the law by virtue of their apps
not being part of their vehicle as meters are in taxis despite the app in
practice performing the same function as a taximeter.

This central contention along
with others is why Uber has become so controversial across of number of states
to the point that the app service has met a litany of legal and political
pushback wherever it went. Regulators in other countries have been more
deliberate in dealing with Uber with some outright banning the service but TFL
has been notably weak leaving the question left worth asking: why?

TFL, like all big
organizations, are less than forthcoming about their reasoning behind their
behaviour towards certain actors and groups but more than in a mood to share its
grand plans and in this respect we can speculate upon TFL’s and indeed the
Mayor of London’s office careful and borderline preferential treatment of Uber.

In 2012, the Mayor of London
office setup the Roads Task Force (RTF) tasked with coming up with a vision of
the roads of London that’s fit for the 21 century. after a three month
consultation period with various stakeholders, the RTF published a forward looking
report in 2013 suggesting a number of changes to prepare the roads of London
for 21 century that could usher the use of alternative services among them
ridesharing companies like Uber, deliver drones, and the driverless car.

While the report was mostly about
making London easier and safer to get around and improving the city’s road
infrastructure to handle the obvious pressures of a growing population, one of
the main aims was to clearly to encourage less road usage which could usher in
a number alternatives, including, rideshare services (like Uber), delivery
drones and even driverless cars which all would help lower the use of cars on
London roads. The report was also done in conjunction with TFL who had three
high ranking members on the RTF and not too longer after published its own
report that was largely in agreement with the view and suggestions made by the
RTF.

With the Mayor of London
office, the RTF and TFL all on the same page for the need to tackle congestion
in the city, it’s clear that all three parties are interested in reduction of
car use. All this helps explain why London mayor Boris Johnson has been eager
to bring driverless cars to London streets as well as the government announced
that it will driverless cars will allowed on British roads as early as next
year. Last year IBM, who had a representative on the RTF and until recently was
running London’s congestion charge systems after winning a contract with TFL
back in 2007, has partnered up with Google, Cisco Systems and German car parts
supplier Continental AG to work on “autonomous driving systems for cars” which
could see the advent of the driverless car come sooner than expected as many
thought Google weren’t willing or able to get the driverless car on roads
across the globe on its own[5].

Johnson got himself into some hot
water while caught talking up the benefits of Google’s technology in bringing
about driverless vehicles such as buses which he quick shot down after his
published report, which no longer available online, caught wind[6].
While the Mayor’s report revealed his support for driverless cars and greater
automation, his support for driverless cars is nowhere near as bullish as the
TFL .The Guardian reported that Peter Hendy, TFL’s commissioner, wrote a foreword
for a ClearChannel commissioned study talking up the potential of driverless
vehicles in the capital. Professor David Begg, a former TFL board member and author
of the report entitled “A 2050 Vision for London”, even forecasted the death of
the taxi driver as he wrote “ "Taxi fares are expensive in London.
One of the main costs is the wage/return to taxi drivers. Passengers in an AV (Autonomous
Vehicle) world will be able to remotely call a driverless taxi to take them to
and from their destination …”[7].

While there’s nothing wrong
with Professor Begg throwing out predictions about the death of the taxi drivers,
there is clearly something wrong with a high ranking TFL official writing a foreword
for a report that predicts the death of a profession and industry it regulates.
However LTDA’s Steve Mcnamara doesn’t seem too concerned about the Mayor and
the TFL being in favour of driverless vehicles but should be given Uber’s long
term plan to replace its human drivers with driverless cars as last year the
San Francisco company “committed to invest up to $375 million for a fleet of
Google’s GX3200 vehicles”[8].

Uber CEO Travis Kalanick has
publicly stated the company’s intention to increase the use of driverless cars
in the company growing fleet of cars and trumpeted this development as a boon
for customers as he said “ "When there's no other dude in the car,
the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle. So
the magic there is, you basically bring the cost below the cost of ownership
for everybody, and then car ownership goes away””[9].

In sum, to the chagrin of its own drivers, never mind Taxi and private hire cabs everywhere, Uber seems on
track to bring about Professor Begg’s grand vision and awful lot earlier than
2050 and with the Mayor or London, TFL and a gaggle of powerful corporations
and business groups in their favour, whose to bet against them.