NFL: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins not fit to be tied

If the Miami Dolphins beat the Indianapolis Colts today, they will be tied with the Patriots for first place in the AFC East. On paper, that is.

The actual — for lack of a better term — race as we know it is over, even if the season is far from its conclusion. The Patriots have about as much chance of not winning the division for the 10th time in 12 years as Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown have of sharing a laugh.

But because only three of the 16 teams in the conference are two-plus games over .500, anyone who doesn't reside in Cleveland, Kansas City or Jacksonville still has a chance to make the playoffs.

With that in mind, let's take a glance at the pretenders/contenders that populate the AFC East outside New England, taking them in order of their predicted finish in the division.

Miami
The Dolphins, who have missed the playoffs nine of the past 10 seasons, are 4-3 under first-year coach and Worcester Academy alum Joe Philbin. They've won three straight and look as if they have what it takes to finish with a winning record for the first time in four years.

It's a team built from the inside out, with excellent linemen on both sides of the ball, and one that excels at situational play. The Dolphins rank second in the league in red-zone defense, ninth in red-zone offense, first in third-down defense, and 19th in third-down offense.

The schedule is manageable with the exception of back-to-back games against the Patriots and San Francisco 49ers on Dec. 2 and 9 and a season-ending trip to New England on Dec. 30.

Prediction: 9-7, wild-card berth.

New York
Like the Patriots, the Jets are on their bye week. Unlike the Patriots, the Jets appear to be trending downward after having lost two straight, both in the division.

Five of the Jets' final eight games will be played on the road, including trips to Seattle, St. Louis and, on Dec. 30, Buffalo. They've lost eight of their last 11 outside New Jersey.

The Jets have scored 49 percent of their points (83) in two wins, both at home. They're averaging 14.2 points otherwise.

Prediction: 8-8 and no playoffs for the second straight year.

Buffalo
The Bills were a chic pick in April, which typically turns out to be a curse come September.

Scoring isn't a problem as they've put up 24-plus points five times. But they allowed 48, 52, 45 and 35 in four of their losses.

As for the wins, they've come against the 1-7 Kansas City Chiefs, 2-6 Cleveland Browns and 4-4 St. Louis Cardinals, who have lost four straight.

The Bills come off their bye week today to face the Texans in Houston, a game that could see both teams score in the 30s. Then they're at the Patriots, who have won 22 of the past 24 meetings in the series, before hosting the Dolphins four days later.

That stretch will bury the Bills.

Prediction: 6-10 for the second straight year and no playoffs for the 13th straight season.

Wendell still out thereRyan Wendell was running with the first team at center during training camp. It figured to be a temporary situation.

Once right guard Brian Waters rejoined the team, his fill-in, Dan Connolly, would return to center and Wendell would resume a reserve role. Well, Waters is still home in Texas and Wendell is still a starter, having played every offensive snap through the first eight games.

“He's all the things we thought he would be,” offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia said Thursday in a rare interview. “He's very tough, he's very smart, he's a really competitive guy on every down, through every down. He's a great finisher.

“That's why he's here and that's why we kept him as a rookie and kept him around here and that's why this kid is on our roster and that's why he's starting for us.”

Wendell went undrafted out of Fresno State, where he played for Bill Belichick best bud Pat Hill, and was twice released from the practice squad by the Patriots before being signed to the 53-man roster three years ago. He came into this season having appeared in 31 games with five starts.

Wendell has been steady in the middle while helping the Patriots make a seamless transition after releasing Dan Koppen, who had held the job since 2003.

“I think clearly the obvious is that he replaced a very, very good football player and a very popular football player,” Scarnecchia said. “That's as tough a decision as we've ever had around here for those reasons. But we also knew that this is a young guy that has played very well when we've asked him to play.”

Just the facts…
A few facts worth knowing: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt leads the Texans with 10 passes defensed. The Patriots' entire defensive line has six. … Aaron Rodgers has 21 touchdown passes. The Green Bay quarterback is the first player in league history to have at least 20 TD passes through eight games in consecutive seasons. He had 24 last year on his way to a career-high 45. … Atlanta Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez needs five catches to join Jerry Rice (1,549) as the only players in league history with 1,200 career receptions. Gonzalez needs one TD catch to become the first tight end and eighth player with 100. … The best home records for a starting quarterback over the past five seasons belong to New England's Tom Brady (26-2, .929) and Matt Ryan of the Falcons (29-4, .879).

Quick hits, numbers
Some quick hits and (hopefully) useful numbers with regard to this week's games: The last three meetings between the Broncos and Bengals, all Denver wins, have been by 1, 5 and 2 points. Peyton Manning is 7-0 all-time versus the Bengals with 17 TDs, three interceptions and a 107 rating. … The Ravens have won nine straight against the Browns, including a 23-16 decision in September. … The Titans, who play the Bears, have won 10 of their past 12 home games against NFC opponents. … The Buccaneers have scored 28-plus points in three straight games. The Raiders have scored 26 points in each of the past two games, both wins. … The Seahawks are 3-0 at home with wins over the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots. … The Dolphins have lost their last 12 games the week after playing the Jets. … The Saints are the first team in NFL history to allow 400-plus yards in seven straight games as they prepare to face the Eagles, who, for all their offensive struggles, are averaging 363.4 yards a game. … Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is 23-7 all-time against the NFC. Giants QB Eli Manning has won eight straight against the AFC. … Teams on the bye: New England, New York Jets, San Francisco, St. Louis. And how those coming off it historically have fared: Baltimore (11-5, .688), Buffalo (15-8, .652), Cincinnati (6-16-1, .283), Houston (3-7, .300).

Fourth and One
Some random thoughts in no particular order:

•Assuming cornerback Aqib Talib is more disciplined on the field than off it, we might still be talking about this trade in New Orleans in early February.

•Brian Hoyer remains unemployed since being released by the Patriots on Aug. 31. And this guy served as Brady's backup for three years? Yikes!

•The Pittsburgh Steelers are getting healthy and getting better. As an aside, it might interest you to know they've led in the fourth quarter in every game this season.