NFL Week 9 gambling picks: Why you should bet Bills +7 over Seahawks

It’s usually smart to take home teams when picking against the spread. Sometimes, though, the risk outweighs the reward. This week we have picked five away teams and one home favorite. It’s ‘Road Warriors’ week everyone.

If you’re going to take a team on the road, you should also think they have a chance to win. Make sure not to take a young rookie quarterback on the road. Always be wary of home-dogs as well, so you need to feel comfortable a road favorite is just better than the opponent.

4-2 last week – 4-1 on non-teasers – keeps us on a roll here. Let’s take the show on the road.

Philadelphia +2.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS

Look, the Eagles should have covered last week against Dallas. In fact, they probably should have won outright. I really like this Eagles team, mostly because of their solid defense. If Doug Pederson doesn’t make coaching mistakes on offense they are a scary team in the playoffs. Carson Wentz doesn’t seem to be falling off. Darren Sproles can make plays out of the backfield. Philadelphia has a team that is very well put together. The Eagles have an average margin of loss at 4.6 and an average margin of victory at 19. Basically, they have played everyone close. The Giants, on the other hand, don’t have single dominant victory.

We’re taking the points because we really never know what we are going to get with the Giants. Yes, they are coming off a bye-week, but a lot of bye-week favorites haven’t fared well this year when we’ve been picking them. I do know that Eli Manning won’t have a so-so game. He’s either going to play out of his mind or completely horrible because Manning likes to keep bettors guessing. I am going with a horrible game because the Eagles defense can cause a lot of problems for quarterbacks with their pressure. Remember what the Eagles did to Sam Bradford? The Giants offensive line isn’t exactly Dallas. Feel free to moneyline the Eagles if you’d like, but I am taking the points to be safe.

Buffalo +7 over SEATTLE

Six points and under I am probably taking Seattle. I won’t take the Seahawks by a touchdown in almost any situation. The offense just isn’t that good right now. Their offensive line is struggling mightily and until Russell Wilson has 100-percent mobility, the offense struggles to make big plays.

The Seahawks offense has done well against the Niners and Jets. That’s about it. They’ve been held to 20 points and under four times this year. It’s tough to cover seven points unless their defense is completely dominant.

The Bills are actually set up perfectly to stop the current iteration of Seattle’s offense. They are stout against the run. Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams will clog holes and the Browns – Preston and Zach – will run down Christine Michael. I am very worried about Buffalo’s offense since they still don’t have any threats on the outside at wide receiver, but hopefully, LeSean McCoy is back this week. If he does not play, run away from this game as fast as possible. The under at 43.5 is also very enticing. Nothing like a Monday Night Football battle of defenses.

Denver + 1.5 over OAKLAND

Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Oakland plays very well on the road. At home, not so much where they have their two losses. Oakland relies on a high-flying offense led by Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Their defense has been borderline miserable all year.

That means the offense needs to completely carry the team in almost every game. They played with fire last week in Tampa Bay. They are also a young team. This is the first important playoff race game for many members of the Black and Silver.

Denver is almost the complete opposite in terms of big game experience. This team won the Super Bowl last year. The defense carried Peyton Manning and the offense to a championship. Trevor Siemian is better than last year’s version of Manning and it isn’t very close. He also fits perfectly into what Gary Kubiak is trying to do with bootleg action. As long as Siemian doesn’t make mistakes the Broncos offense should put up some points against the Raiders defense.

Then we get to the real match up. The Broncos defense against the high-scoring Raiders offensive attack. The best way to attack the Broncos is what the Falcons did against them. Create mismatches in the running game and have running backs beat the Broncos linebackers in pass coverage.

Oakland can try and recreate that with Jalen Richard, but he’s not Tevin Coleman. Murray isn’t as dynamic as Devonta Freeman since he is coming off injury. Aqib Talib leads the Broncos defensive backfield and they can match up against Crabtree and Cooper. We didn’t even have to mention Von Miller, Shane Ray and DeMarcus Ware.

The Broncos have just been there before. They are more business-like. They know what to expect. Getting points in this game is a great situation.

MIAMI -3.5 over New York Jets

Come close, I want to whisper this so people don’t think I am crazy: I think the Miami Dolphins may be a good football team. Yes, they have issues when they rely on Ryan Tannehill too much, but Jay Ajayi has made that less concerning. Ajayi is going up against a tough front seven, but he ran for 200 yards against the Bills and their front seven is no joke. When Miami can run the football, it allows Tannehill more open windows in play action passes and allows windows underneath for Jarvis Landry.

The Jets struggled to beat the Browns last week. Their offensive attack is basically one dimensional with Brandon Marshall. The Dolphins should be able to focus on Marshall and make someone else beat them. That someone else is not Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Miami needs to win this game to even think about reinserting itself into the wild card race. It will also be 80 degrees with 70 percent humidity. That means it’s going to be even hotter on the field. It’s tough playing in Miami especially when they get their running game and defense going.

Detroit + 6 over MINNESOTA

. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

I don’t think anyone including Mike Zimmer knows what is going on in Minnesota. Their offensive line is in complete shambles. The good news is that Detroit really lacks a pass rush. With Norv Turner resigning this weekend, I don’t think the offense will be able to amazingly create offense out of thin air. The Vikings are completely different than before their bye week.

Matthew Stafford is having a great year in Detroit, and hot take: he’s playing better than he did with Calvin Johnson. He has taken command of the offense and the Lions’ passing attack should move the ball since the Bears and Eagles did the past few weeks. The Vikings showed promise early in the year, but this is a tough division match up. Basically, the only thing that could scare you is the Vikings playing at home.

Panthers – 3 over LOS ANGELES

The Panthers are going to win this game going away. The Rams are coming off a bye week but if Case Keenum is still behind center, they don’t have a chance. If Jared Goff makes his first NFL start, they definitely don’t have a chance. The Rams are a football team that has one to two holes, but good enough that they can win games and not make the playoffs. Their roster is currently built for 8-8 and they will have to decide whether they want to start looking toward next year with Goff sooner than later.

The Panthers still think they are in the playoff race. Cam Newton may get the benefit of the doubt on a roughing the passer call. They found their swagger with their win over Arizona. The Carolina defensive backfield still isn’t great, but the Rams can’t really pass. It’s going to be another long day for Todd Gurley.

Season: 23-20

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