Drier air isn’t to Houston yet—but it will by the weekend

Posted by Eric Berger at 6:56 AM on September 27, 2016

The much-discussed first front of the fall season has pushed off the coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, but drier (and cooler) air has largely lagged behind. As we suggested on Monday, it will be a slow process, but much more fall-like weather is still on the way.

Temperatures this morning show the progress of cold air into Texas. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy as moisture lingers along the coast, with possibly enough energy to produce a few isolated storms this afternoon near the Gulf. However most of the region will see temperatures in the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies. As drier air filters in tonight, inland areas should see lows in the upper 60s, with lower 70s along the coast.

Wednesday

As skies clear out on Wednesday temperatures will warm into the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies, but with drier air we should still see overnight lows fall off into the upper 60s.

Thursday

A second cold front should move through the area on Thursday, and this is what should really make for a splendid end of the week, and weekend for Houston. After another warm day in the upper 80s, under mostly sunny skies, we should see lows fall to near 60 degrees for inland areas on Thursday night, and the upper 60s along the coast.

Friday through Sunday

Talk about perfect timing—tremendous fall weather will line up for the weekend. After the second front pushes through, this cooler and drier air will give us days in the low- to mid-80s, nights in the low- to mid-60s, and lots of sunshine. Should be perfect weather for football, yard work, or whatever else you might plan to do outdoors. Savor it. After August and September, we deserve it.

Tropics

It looks like Tropical Storm Matt will form during the next day or two in the Atlantic Ocean, and then move into the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend.

Matt is going into the eastern Caribbean Sea. And after that? Who knows. (NOAA)

Depending on the strength of high pressure to its north there are several scenarios for this storm, which could become a fairly strong hurricane in the Caribbean. Right now I’d rate the threat to Texas as very low, as it seems like the storm will remain east of here, eventually steered into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida or into the Atlantic. But we’re going to watch it all the same.

Ben

In the world of weather though, I don’t think you can use history as a predictor of the future in the way you are. Historical data is used to create the models, and they are used to help predict a hurricane’s path.

However, what determines the path of any one hurricane is the steering currents at the time of the storm’s formation.

With that in mind, simply saying that because we haven’t had one come to Texas in October means we won’t, doesn’t take in to account the current conditions the hurricane is facing.

As a similar comparison, you could say you’ve never had an accident driving to work on the freeway. While historically accurate, it cannot be used to determine the chances of an accident happening today. There are far to many variables involved to some how correlate previous driving.

As such, the chances of a storm hitting Texas in October is based on today’s weather patterns and their interactions with the storm.

Blackhawks Fan

Having just spent a long weekend where the temps were in the mid 80s but the dew points were in the upper 60s, I can attest to what just lowering the humidity from opressive Houston norms can do. The part of the family from Cincinnati was, hower, complaining about how hot and sticky it was. I guess it comes down to what you are used too.