While all the market watchers look to the brand spanking new San José mine in Mexico for their Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) kicks and most get warm and fuzzy about the new NYSE listing, your humble scribe's attention is drawn to the production numbers out of the established mine at Caylloma Peru, because the July numbers have just been published and THEY RAWK.

Context: In 2q11 FVI reported production of 474,979 oz Ag. If you split that down into months by a simple 3 division, you get 158,326oz Ag/month.

In the July figures just released, the Caylloma mine reports production of 6063kg, which is 194,951oz Ag in old money. That's an all-time record for the mine.

As silver's average selling price for the month of July was around U$37.91/oz (according to the London Fix average at least), we're looking at about $1.4m of extra income compared to the average month of 2q11. Just the silver, just one month of three, just the extra on top. Cool beans, no?

"And how do you know the July 2011 production numbers for Caylloma, Otto?", I hear you ask. Easy, I know my way around this website (and my kung fu is strong). DYODD.

Answer: In July 2011 the Madre De Dios region officially produced 2,089,908 grams, or 67,200 ounces of gold. At the July 2011 London Fix average price of U$1573/oz, that's worth U$105.7m.

In the first seven months of 2011, 13,332,654 grams, or 428,703 ounces of gold.

July's production represents 14.91% of all the gold produced by Peru.

And remember, the above figures are only the OFFICIAL Peru Mining Ministry numbers and that unofficial production is normally estimated to be the same again, so take those numbers and double them to get the real picture. Though this below is the real picture of Madre De Dios (from this excellent photoseries):

August 31st 09:51amProduction at the mining company Shougang Hierro Perú (Shougang Iron Peru) is currently stopped this Wednesday due to an indefinite strike by its workforce, according to general manager, Raúl Vera.Shougang Hierro Perú. controlled by the Shougang Group of China, is the only producer of iron ore in the country and has its mine in the southern Ica region."The company is not producing in light that the workers have down tools...we are waiting for word from the ministry of labour for a meeting", said Vera in a telephone conversation with Reuters.Workers have gone on strike to demand better pay and working conditions, a union leader told Reuters.

I'm not that bothered about whether there's a competing offer right now, because the main issue about HAT at Roughrider is the value of the asset, not the movers'n'shakers doing their stuff. We all know that the board of Hathor (HAT.to) will oppose the Cameco (CCO.to) (CCJ) cash offer when it publishes its NR (in the next few hours) but what main reason will they put forward? I mean, they have the opportunistic angle, they have the Fukushima angle, but I think the main reason is that the scoping study due out in the next couple of weeks is going to wow the audience and make the asset value of HAT looks miles ahead of the CCJ offer.

Fundies will out in the end. DYODD dudes, cos I'm long this at $3.90 and a few at $3.97, position opened in the days since the CCJ offer came in (fwiw the buy was called in IKN121, last Sunday).

...amongst the smarter end of the anal yst community that Peru is going to keep on keeping on being miner-friendly (and biz friendly and FDI friendly for that matter) during the course of the new Ollanta Humala government. The savvier anal ysts out there, such as Mike Bandrowski of Clarus this morning who wrote these two paragraphs below, will in this way get the drop on their peers and leave the dumbasses like Louis Lobito James of Casey Research (who last week called Ollanta "rabid"), in the veritable dust. Here's Bandrowski of Clarus:

"Peru’s foreign debt rating was increased to BBB from BBB- by Standard & Poor’s on signs President Ollanta Humala will continue policies that made Peru one of the fastest growing economies. Note that the increase puts Peru above both Brazil and Colombia."Since taking office last month, Humala has pledged to honour previous contracts, spur private investment and implement a fair and equitable mining tax regime. According to Mines and Energy Minister Carlos Herrera, the Peruvian government is hoping to wrap up negotiations with mining companies and define a new tax this week. Many industry leaders are expecting the new tax regime to mirror that of Chile."

Market pricing in very weak demand; prefer metals over steel In line with recent weak economic data and macro concerns, with leading indicators like ISM and ABI pointing to renewed weakness, we are cutting our estimates and target multiples, resulting in an average -24% in our PTs across our coverage. We remain more positive on emerging markets, which have a higher influence on metal demand versus developed economies. We thus prefer metals and mining stocks over steel stocks in the near term. Within carbon steel, we prefer service center stocks over steel mill stocks.

Metals & Mining: Correction creates opportunity; Buy FCX and AA We believe the recent pullback in metals & mining stocks has created a particularly attractive entry point for select names. We remain very bullish on copper fundamentals and recommend investors continue to buy FCX. Although we are not as bullish on aluminum as copper, we prefer AA as we see the delinking of alumina-aluminum prices and AA’s aerospace exposure as strong earnings drivers over coming years. We are upgrading CENX to Neutral was Sell as the stock now appears fairly valued. We are also lowering our aluminum price forecast and estimates for AA, CENX and NOR. We are also lowering our PT multiples across our covered stocks to reflect the higher risk premium the market is applying, thus lowering PTs on average 21%.

Steel: Correction appears overdone but fundamentals remain weak. Despite the underperformance of steel stocks during this recent downturn, we are reluctant to get more constructive and expect supply-demand fundamentals to remain challenged in the near future. Although a seasonal uptick in demand in the autumn period, expected lower imports in coming months, and a negative arbitrage between US and global prices may provide some support in the near term, we question the sustainability of price increases going into the latter part of the year. We prefer service center stocks over mill stocks and are upgrading RS to Buy, was Neutral. We are downgrading WOR to Sell from Neutral as the stock appears overvalued, and we see 14% downside vs steel sector upside of 6%. We are also downgrading STLD to Neutral from Buy as we prefer RS. Among the mill stocks, we prefer NUE (Neutral), and on the upstream we prefer SCHN (Neutral). Among specialty metal stocks, ATI (Buy) is our preferred name as we remain very bullish on the aerospace cycle. We are also lowering our PTs by 26% for our covered stocks as we lower our estimates (on revised demand, pricing and costs assumptions) and PT multiples (to reflect higher risk premium)

The red circle on that chart highlights last Friday's action and it was something we featured in IKN121, out last Sunday, with this script accompanying. We've been watching the state of copper pretty carefully recently, y'see.

Last week we noted our concern about the “fight for four”, as copper was having all sorts of trouble in making up its mind whether the sink below $4/lb or move higher. By way of a reminder, here’s a small snippet of last week’s text:

“...the best bellweather commodity metal out there, copper, will need a close eye on it for the next couple of weeks. I’ve previously said out loud that I’m not worried about the state of play in copper as long as the metal stays $4 or over, so the last few days of struggle to hold that line is telling. There’s no rush to judgment here, but radar on copper? Yes.”

Cut to today and as we can see on the above futures chart, up to last Friday copper had traded both above and below $4/lb on every single day for 14 trading days after its significant drop in the early days of August. However Friday August 26th marked a change in direction, which also happens to be the right direction for those long Cu such as your author.

Just as last week, we’re not calling outright victory at this point and we’re not rushing to judgment. What we are doing is saying that copper looks healthier now and may turn out to be one less thing to worry come this time next week. Vamos a ver....

Personal note from Prof. Pierre Mousset Jones (March 2010): Here (https://www.unrsearch.com/applicants/jsp/shared/position/JobDetails_css.jsp) is a job description for an Assistant/Associate Professor position to replace me. I will be half time starting in July. I will be teaching etc. during the spring semester for three years, to help phase in, if needed, the new faculty. There is an interest to maintain the mine ventilation expertise in the department and make use of the excellent department mine ventilation laboratory. There are a number of operating underground mines in the state, with the potential for others in the future. If you would like more information on the positions please email or phone me.

Professor/Associate Professor in Geology and Mineral Resources Engineering (Mining Engineering), Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology, Departments of Geology and Mineral Resources and Engineering, at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim. For more information click here (January 2011).

I'll leave the student protest stuff to other places, here let's just note that Chile has just published its July 2011 industrial production number today and at +0.7% YoY growth, it way sucks. Here's a chart that shows all the numbers from Jan 2009 to now (note how the big earthquake only really affected one month and then the YoY rebound)

Today's was a mile under the 4% or so people were expecting. Pres Piñera isn't just under the kosh from his protesting locals, as it seems "it's the economy, stupid" also applies to his admin from here. Reuters report in Spanish here, INE website data here.

Here's a clue: A lot of people think this is still an exploration stage company and they're dead wrong.

Answers on a postcard please to

Otto Rock

Third cubicle along (wide stance)

Minneapolis - St. Paul Intl Airport

USA

Or if you prefer, the usual mail address. First out of the bag gets to see their initials and their answer stuck on an update just below these words. Fame awaits thee!

UPDATE, one hour later: You can stop now folks, because we got a winner within three minutes (i kid you not) of this post going up. Congrats to the quickdraw reader known to the world as Nowhuffo because that was lightning fast, dude. Nowhuffo correctly identified that photo as Rio Alto (RIO.v) at its La Arena property in Peru.

Monday, August 29, 2011

If you haven't read Mickey Fulp's latest piece on REE juniors yet it means you're not a subscriber to his 100% free service and you should be by now, so here's the link to go join up.

I digress. His note on REE juniors this weekend is excellent stuff, showing the good and the bad of the sector. Read it yourself by going to this link, because it's now out there for one and all. DYODD, dude.

"Carson Block is looking like a champ. For his part, John Paulson took his lumps like a man. It was big loss for his fund, but he showed he could recognize when he was wrong. I do feel for the analysts who came out to support the company. Lesson learned, hopefully. Don't trust everything they tell you, sometimes the numbers are simply a lie. Company officials are NOT your friends."

The only part I disagree with is the bit about feeling sorry for the lazy group-thinkers, because if you can't see that they're part of the problem and not part of the solution there's a flaw in your argument, Alex. But yeah, credit to Paulson for taking one on the chin in an adult fashion. And that last part about company officials is 100% correct.

1) In early 2011 the dumbass Canadian anal yst community drives their shareholders straight off a cliff by getting them into Coro Mining (COP.to) and promising them the environmental permit final approval is just one rubberstamp away, when in fact the dangers were crystal clear for anyone who actually understands how Argentine politics works.

2) Coro Mining (COP.to) is refused its permit last week and the stock tanks over 50% from an already low level (and way below the silly $1.80 and $2 targets bandied about by said anal ysts).

3) Same anal ysts now say that the permit denial is not as bad as it seems and that the project is merely being "delayed" a couple of years.

4) Same sheep clients actually believe this line and buy COP.to this morning.

AuRico (AUQ) (ex-Gammon Gold) is down oodles this morning because it will basically pay anything to get its production profile up and away from the underperforming assets it has in Mexico. Here's the NR:

TORONTO, Aug. 29, 2011 /PRNewswire/ - AuRico Gold Inc. ("AuRico") (TSX:AUQ.to - News) (NYSE:AUQ - News)and Northgate Minerals Corporation ("Northgate") (TSX:NGX.to - News) (NYSE-Amex:NXG) are pleased to announce that they have entered into a definitive acquisition agreement (the "Agreement") to create a new leading intermediate gold producer. The new company will have 5 operating gold mines, a sixth mine targeting production in 2012 and 3 gold development projects in Mexico, Canada, and Australia, three of the top global mining jurisdictions. The combined company is completely unhedged and offers full exposure to record gold and silver prices and an exceptional growth profile from approximately 475,0001 gold equivalent ("Aue") ounces2 this year to 730,000+3 Aue ounces in 2013 (growth of approximately 54%). All figures in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Under the terms of the Agreement, AuRico will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Northgate on the basis of 0.365 AuRico common shares per Northgate common share. Based on both companies' 20-day volume weighted average prices on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) ending on August 26, 2011, the exchange ratio under the offer represents a 45% premium to Northgate's shareholders. "The combination of AuRico and Northgate will immediately position the combined company as a pre-eminent intermediate gold producer with peer leading growth", said Rene Marion, President and CEO of AuRico. "The assets, projects and people in our two companies are highlyyada yada continues here

Right now AUQ is off 12% on this news, but hardly surprising for those who watch this dog from the sidelines, as AuRico, ex-Gammon, has a long history of more-talk-than-walk and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at any given moment. And by the way Rene, AuRico is a really stupid corporate name.

UPDATE: Apparentlytechnicals are the "first things" you need to know about a gold stock. Ahhh, silly old me for actually following a company and knowing its track record, eh....

UPDATE 2:What Brian Christie of Desjardin's thinks (extract):

We expect the market will view this transaction negatively. It is likely that the market believes that AuRico is overpaying for the Young-Davidson asset, given that based on our experience, we believe it will ascribe little value to Northgate’s Australian mines and Kemess project. However, we note that AuRico has a strong track record of turning around and/or optimizing various mining assets, as it has done with Ocampo and is currently doing with El Chanate.

We will be reviewing our model for AuRico to reflect the proposed transaction.

Can we please stop this nonsense about how Peru is the world's number one producer of silver, because it isn't. If you can be bothered to check the figures you'll note that in 2009 Peru was indeed the biggest producer of silver in the world but in 2010 Mexico overtook Peru (it was close, but Mex made more Ag no doubts) and is back to the number one spot again. As for 2011, the gap is getting even bigger and this is why:

Saturday, August 27, 2011

This humble corner of cyberspace has always maintained that scumball scamrunner Gordon Brent Pierce was the guy behind the Mercer Gold (MRGP.ob) scam. With this legal action dated August 25th, that seeks to strip Mercer of its Guayabales property in Colombia (of behalf of the people that optioned the property to Mercer, because they've been messed around one too many times by the Brent Pierce scam) we now have more light getting shone upon him.

Miki González is great. Born of 80s rock that was into copycatting northern styles at the time, González has never stopped growing artistically and nowadays creates beautiful original sounds using traditional music backdrops.

This is track one from his 2004 Inkaterra Café album (100% instrumental, so fear not you non-Spanish speakers) and if you like what you hear (betcha you do)click here and listen to more of the same.

...from a geol friend, and goes a long way in explaining why those junior mining market commentators who pretend to be geols but have no qualifications are basically full of shit.

Here's the script that accompanies the chart, received by your author this morning:

"...here is my chart of the day and an associated diversion from the markets. It shows geochemical data from a project presented in a way to investigate alteration intensity. Each rock type is identified by a symbol. If the world was very simple, each rock type would plot in its own unique location but like people, rock composition is variable right from birth. Added to this original compositional variation are analytical variation and variations from effects of hydrothermal alteration, which is the variation of interest to me. The element concentrations reported by the lab need to be adjusted mathematically based on chemical theory (not statistics) in a manner that helps understand a geological process like alteration. In this one, the scatter in pink and red dots shows how much alteration has modified the rock composition. Since altered rocks are found close to ore ($$$) and unalterated ones are further away, explorers can use this alteration gradient to direct them to the deposit. The pink diamonds started life at about (0.07, 0.7) and the red ones around (0.10, 0.10). Alteration displaces these original compositions up to the right so using this diagram with knowledge of where each point is located in geographic space, I can define the alteration gradient. The trick is knowing how to process the analytical data and arrange them for plotting. In case you are interested, the trick is based on vector algebra...every mineral has a chemical formula (eg. orthoclase, a common mineral in rocks = KAlSi3O8; which shows the molar proportions of elements as one part K, one part Al, 3 parts Si, 8 parts O; or 1:1:3:8). The molar proportions are the coefficents in a matrix and elements are the variables. Since we have many minerals making up the rocks we sample, we have multiple equations of minerals that define a multidimensional geochemical space. These can be solved in a manner that orients the view of space in a way that helps us understand the data. Cool huh?"

It was all set to be delayed (if that makes sense) until after the election on October 23rd, but yesterday the parliament of Mendoza made a somewhat surprising decision and decided to debate and vote on whether the San Jorge copper project owned by Coro Mining (COP.to) would be given its permission to operate.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Aug. 25, 2011) - Coro Mining Corp. ("Coro" or the "Company") (TSX:COP - News) regrets to announce that the Provincial Legislature of Mendoza has voted against the ratification of the Company's approved Environmental Impact Declaration ("EID"), notwithstanding that the EID was conditional, inter alia, upon the Company's Argentinean subsidiary, Minera San Jorge ("MSJ"), complying with the highest standards of environmental protection, control and monitoring prior to, and during the construction and operation of the project. Over the past 3 years, Coro has strictly complied with all laws and regulations, including the 7722 law which required the ratification of the approved EID, and has made every effort to ensure that the legislators were fully informed about the project. In addition, a Mendoza court recently determined that the process which led to the approval of the EID was neither illegitimate nor arbitrary, and therefore fully complied with provincial law.As recently as August 24th, the head of the Lower House confirmed that the ratification vote would take place after the elections scheduled for October, in order that the decision could be taken based on the merits of the project and not on a calculation of electoral advantage. Unfortunately, the vote took place in any event, without consideration of the conclusions of the legislature's commissions who have spent the last several months evaluating the EID, and more pertinently, the validity of the process which led to its approval. The decision to not ratify the EID was taken against the clearly expressed wishes of the current government, with whom the Company was in advanced discussions aimed at delivering a carried 10% interest in MSJ to the province.Coro will now consider its alternatives to seek legal redress and compensation through the Argentinean and international courts. In particular, the 7722 law is currently subject to legal challenges of its constitutionality by Coro and several other parties. We anticipate that this lawsuit may be resolved by mid 2012 and in the event that the courts find that the law is indeed unconstitutional, the denial of legislative ratification of the Company's valid and approved EID, may be deemed to be null and void.Finally, we wish to express our gratitude to the people of Uspallata who had supported the development of San Jorge. We sincerely regret the rejection our project by your elected representatives, especially given the rigorous review and consultation process that has taken place over the past 3 years. Coro had hoped to work with you in raising your living standards and demonstrating the economic and social benefits that San Jorge could have brought to your community; unfortunately, this opportunity has now been denied to us.CORO MINING CORP.Alan Stephens, President and CEO

...why Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) has been hanging tough and shaking off the gold price downturn today (it's actually green on the day), the likely reason is that Ian Parkinson of CIBC World Markets (along with assistant Matthew Gibson) published an opening of coverage report on the company yesterday after the bell, called RIO.v as a buy and stuck a $3.80 target on the thing. I've read the report and must say it's a very well written and strongly constructed argument too, so kudos to Parkinson.