A bigger role for Cole

When Cole Aldrich put up six points and seven rebounds back on March 3rd at Atlanta, it made me think more about his role with the Thunder.

I thought that they might decide to play him more. But alas, Cole’s minutes have actually fallen since then.

That leads me to wonder. Would they benefit from playing him more?

I want to find out.

Let’s start by comparing Aldrich to his main competitors for minutes: Kendrick Perkins, Nazr Mohammed, and Nick Collison.

Of that group, Aldrich has the highest rebound rate this year, with 10.3 rebounds per 36 minutes. Of those rebounds, 3.2 come on the offensive glass. While those numbers are the best among his peers, Aldrich’s rebounding performance is in line with Mohammed’s and Perkins’ over the last few seasons

I can’t conclude he is significantly better or worse than Perkins or Mohammed on the boards, though he appears to be a stronger rebounder than Collison.

On defense, Aldrich has the highest block rate, as he averages 2.9 blocks per 36 minutes. That’s a full block more than Nazr Mohammed’s 1.9, which is the next best among those four players.

Now, Aldrich’s blocks look very impressive compared to his peers. But playing good post defense is about a lot more than blocking shots, despite JaVale McGee’s claims to the contrary.

Looking at the Synergy statistics, the data supports Perkins’ reputation as an excellent defender. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in the NBA, thanks to the 0.760 points per possession (PPP) opponents average against him. He’s especially strong at defending the pick-and-roll, post-ups, and isolations.

Perkins struggles, though, against spot-ups. In those situations, he allows 1.014 PPP, good for only the 32nd percentile in the league. I determined from looking at film that he has trouble closing out on bigs who can hit jump shots when given space. He also has a tendency to get lost on the perimeter, leaving shooters open from outside.

Nazr Mohammed has similar statistics. He defends the post well, but ranks in the 12th percentile at defending spot-ups.

The quicker Collison and Aldrich fare much better in those situations. They place in the 84th and 91st percentiles at stopping spot-ups, with 0.771 and 0.688 PPP against, respectively.

Aldrich, however, has the size and skills to defend bigger opponents in the post, an area in which Collison has some trouble. The smaller Collison ranks in the 55th percentile in the NBA at post-up defense.

Those numbers aren’t terribly meaningful in a vacuum. What effect do those players have on the team defense?

The Thunder as a team are 6th in the NBA in opponent’s field goal percentage, but they’re only 13th in defending the three-point shot. Overall, they rank 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 0.894 PPP.

Those numbers tell me Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense is a major area they can improve upon. Given that the Thunder don’t force many turnovers, that weakness doesn’t look like it stems from gambling for steals. It has more to do with not closing out on shooters.

While Perkins and Mohammed aren’t the only weak links by any means, they have been responsible for 10% of opponents’ spot-up possessions. Improving on their perimeter defense would make a difference.

Oklahoma City also has trouble defending in transition. They place 26th in the league with 1.184 PPP allowed. Viewed another way, opponents shoot 61% from the field with a 66% adjusted field goal percentage in transition. The Thunder don’t get stops.

Based on the film I watched, it looked like the main culprit was an inability to close out on shooters in transition, especially on the secondary break.

There’s that problem again.

What can the Thunder do about it?

They could address their personnel and play quicker big men who do a better job of getting back on defense and contesting shots away from the basket.

Subbing out Perkins and Mohammed for Collison and Aldrich against teams who are running the floor and hitting open jump shots would help.

Aldrich is a perfect fit for defending against teams who hit those jump shots while also having a low post presence that the Thunder need to defend. And the best teams in the West, like the Lakers, Clippers, and Spurs, fit those criteria.

On the offensive side of the ball, the changes are less significant.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka make up nearly three-quarters of the Thunder’s possessions offensively.

Perkins and Mohammed only use a combined 9.1% of the team’s possessions. Making personnel changes at center isn’t going to have a huge effect on offense either way.

Still, Cole converts much better with his 55.9% field goal percentage than Mohammed and Perkins, who are shooting 46.2% and 48.6% from the field, respectively.

Aldrich has also averaged an excellent 1.044 PPP this year on offense, which puts him in the 93rd percentile in the NBA. Mohammed ranks in the 34th percentile, while Perkins places in just the 18th percentile.

Cole also tends to operate better in space. His strengths according to Synergy are in cuts to the basket, in transition, and in the pick-and-roll. Those three play types account for almost half of the Thunder’s possessions, which means that his skill set is well-aligned with the team’s offense.

At best, Cole would get into open space and score a few baskets a game. At worst, he’d probably contribute about as much as Perkins and Mohammed already do.

Against the best teams in the league, those points make a major difference. And let’s not forget how he can help the Thunder shore up their perimeter and transition defense.

Am I suggesting tossing him in the starting lineup? Of course not. But Cole has a skill set that can help the Thunder in certain situations.

And those situations happen to be ones in which the team will often find themselves in the playoffs against teams that have a variety of weapons.

Cole will help them in important spots, and he’ll gain valuable experience in the process so that he can take over for Mohammed next year.

It’s a no-brainer to me. What do you think? Leave a comment!

James Kerti is a basketball scout and analyst. He also helps people in basketball increase their exposure by building them web sites and helping them with social media. Follow him on Twitter and check out his site.

I hope Cole can get away from this team. Durant does not like Cole and neither does most of his team mates. The coach has already stated he wants nothing more than a screen setter and I hope Cole can escape that hell hole. When he was down at Tulsa they set a record for consecutive wins and when they recalled him they would not even dress him. When he plays well, his minutes go down, not up. I think they are trying to break his will. Thunderup32 your prejudice is showing my man. You probably think Bird was a average player, right? Perk is all hot air with very little skill except scowling and strutting. His game sucks.

Please take in to account that Cole plays against the other teams' end of the bench players as well. He's averaging 10 rebounds per 36 minutes against players that don't see the floor until it's garbage time. Not to mention how awkward he can be on the floor at times. He always seems to be on the floor and it's not because he is diving for a loose ball or taking a charge. I don't see the benefit of giving him minutes at this point in the season either. It's getting down to crunch time as we head to playoffs and as we already know with Scott Brooks, he isn't going to disrupt his rotation. Which means Cole will continue to occupy his seat on the bench cheering and acting a fool when we hit a 3 pointer; where he needs to be.

Cole is simply not ready, nor is Reggie Jackson. That doesn't mean their time won't come, it just means they have to keep working hard, try to improve every day, and take advantage of the opportunity when it's there. So basically--I disagree with the premise of this piece. When Narz retires--Cole will have his shot and he should be a solid role player. He was already given a vote of confidence by Presti in that Mullen was the one dealt to the Siberia of the NBA...the Charlotte Bobcats.

This story is exactly what gives 'stats' guys a bad reputation. I'm sorry but Perkins ALWAYS gets the toughest matchup, then Nick and then Nazr. If Perk and Collison are on the floor at the same time against Lamarcus Aldridge, who's guard LA? Who's guarding Blake Griffin? Who's guarding Kevin Love? Dwight Howard or Bynum? The answer is Perkins. So the fact that he's done as well as he has is quite impressive. And Aldrich is always playing against the 3rd team of the other team.

Give me Collison all day. I agree Cole has potential to get there, but you can't match the efficiency, +/-, and well roundedness of Collison. Plus I can't get enough of watching his pick and roll game with Harden! I think he needs to continue to get the majority of the minutes subbing in for Perk.

Cole's statistics will be boosted by the fact when he's in, it's against the 3rd team of the opposition, that's not to say he's not got the potential, but I think the coaching staff know these players capabilities more than any of us, as they see them everyday at training, rather than the 5 min a night we see him on the floor. The great thing is we have the depth for the coaching staff be patient with Cole. And we need to be the same, patient, his time will come

Have Brooks & Presti given Aldrich enough playing time to be ready to play some in the playoffs? No, not in my view, not even close. They appear to have bet that home court advantages mean more than Cole will. I think they could have found Cole 2-3 times the minutes without hurting themselves much or any. We'll see if they "need" him in the playoffs and if he is ready or not.

Might consider going to one of the watch parties but can no longer stomach the horrible 3.2 beer after living elsewhere for several years. Wtf, Oklahoma, us and Utah, that's it with this crappy law. It ain't the drunkeness factor, it just tastes like garbage.

these heat announcers are killing me *stops watching* they are so up the heats ass its scary. I mean a guy took a blatant charge for the 76ers and they called it a flop lol. man it makes me happy that we have brian davis and grant long

Tell you what guys, San Antonio is no joke. Funny how they've flown under the radar all year with most of the talk being about us, Chicago & Miami. We better hold on to the top seed cause with their new additions including green and Leonard, they're more versatile & all together better than they've been in several years.

76ers are exposing one of the heats major weaknesses, GOOD ball movement and hustle, and the heat are showing why they have lost at home only 2 times, NO FOULS on the opposing team. The 76ers havent shot a free throw yet ~.~

@noodles480 Just calling it as I see it. Any yeah Bird was just average. Are you kidding? I am entitled to my opinion as are you. Do I think Cole has a role on this team? Probably not but if anything we need to continue to develop him and use him as trade bait. And if Perk has no skill then why is he a starter in the NBA and his injury widely considered the reason why the Celts couldn't beat the Lakers in the finals a couple of years ago? Sounds like I'm not the only one with a prejudice. I was only poking fun at how Cole reacts on the sidelines whenever we hit a 3...yeah he looks like a fool but it keeps the team lighthearted to see one of their guys getting excited about the game even though we doesn't see meaningful minutes. My reply to this article was to say that the stats that he puts up are in meaningless minutes in games and don't show his talents or his flaws. Put him in against the Andrew Bynum's and Dwight Howard's of the world and then compare his numbers to Perk and Nazr. But they aren't that great either.

@thunderup32 I agree that you have to be careful with the rotation. This isn't a time to make serious changes. But I do think playing Cole in certain situations against teams that have a matchup advantage on Perkins and Nazr wouldn't cause any serious problems.

@El Prez I agree with you except I think that he's going to have an even bigger role than Nazr. Next year, negotiations with Harden and Ibaka are going to get serious. Those guys will get a lot of money and due to cap restrictions, we are going to have to move someone. Logically, that person has to be Perk. In other words, by hook or by crook, I think Cole is being groomed for Perk's spot, not Nazr's.

@FF_pickups I hear you, but the stats I cited in the article, the ones I used to advocate for Aldrich, relate specifically to their ability to defend against spot-up shooters. Of course Perkins has tougher matchups than Aldrich, but that's unrelated to Perkins' and Nazr's struggles at closing out on shooters. That's been consistent. That's all I'm saying.

@shiki I agree. The sample size is too small and heavily skewed against the opponents he's faced. You can't tell me his defense doesn't look better against the scrubs he usually sees than it would against starter and rotation players if he were actually seeing them on a regular basis.

@Old Man Game Close to nothing. a second round pick from a bad team hoping to take a flyer on him. While we as thunder fans see a lottery pick who has provided good energy and skill in limited minutes. other NBA GM's see a lottery bust who is currently being held to the end of the bench by Nazr. third String center aren't really worth trading for. especially when they're not even 7ft

@Old Man Game i don't think we should trade cole unless we're going to get another center because Cole will be the backup next year...but i do like the idea of packaging 2 of our players and upgrading at a certain position....we have too much talent to fit in a rotation and thats even with maynor out

@jameskerti You are saying that Perkins hasn't 'closed out on shooters' but in reality, isn't possible he's always given the Lamarcus Aldridge, the Chris Bosh, the Dirk Nowitzki of the opponent. Yeah, those guys are going to make shots at a much higher rate than the guys that the other guys guard. Maybe it's not due strictly to him 'not closing out' but rather him always guarding the BEST big on the other team. Collison often gets that assignment, too. But not quite as much as Perk. So your stat is skewed. Let me give you an example, let's say we were playing the '92 Bulls and you guarded MJordan and I guarded BJ Armstrong. MJ lit you up and then we looked at the stats afterwards and said, well, you are a bad defender and I am a good defender. Um, no, it has more to do with the competition than us as a defender.

@shiki I looked around a bit and didn't find much; but, Malik Allen played about 160 minutes in the regular season his rookie year in 2001-2 and did pretty good then played 130 minutes in 10 playoff games and did pretty good.

This is only if things go as planned. Cole is an insurance policy, and if Crow is right that he could have been given more time without hurthing the team (and I agree), his value as insurance would be greater. Who is going to benefit more from playing time, Nazr or Cole?

@shiki im just browsing it and they are getting under the basket and getting hacked and no calls. but battier can get whatever he wants and of course queen james is like kobe so :P . the 76ers ball movement isnt bad though. quick, precise.

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