“Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph.”
Haile Selassie

Thursday, December 4, 2014

New Election Data Show GOP Indianapolis Council Electoral Advantage Has Shrank from 15-10 to 13-12

I had some time to look at analyze the 2014 Marion County election results with respect to the Indianapolis Council District Maps drawn by local GOP operative David Brooks. The results are interesting.

First some background. When Brooks redid the districts following the most recent census, he used 2010 election results to design districts that were expected to provide a 15-10 Republican majority in the districts, a majority that was large enough to withstand the expected win by the Democrats of the four at-large seats a virtual inevitability because of that party's dominance of the county as a whole. Of course, since Brooks drew the map, the Republican-dominated Indiana General Assembly eliminated the four at large seats, which following the 2015 election will reduce that body from 29 to 25 members.

Some additional notes. The 2010 and 2014 elections most closely
resemble the turnout one would expect in the municipal elections. Republicans
generally do a lot better in Marion County with lower turnout. 2014 is a
superior race to use than 2010 simply because it is newer. The 2010
and 2014 elections, however, are a bit of an aberration in that they were excellent Republican years. So one can expect the results are skewed somewhat more favorable to the GOP than they would be in a more normal election.

I used the Marion County Auditor's race, a low-profile, straight head-to-head contest (no pesky Libertarians messing up my numbers) between a Republican and Democrat to create a 2014 GOP baseline in the 25 districts. The results tracked closely the 2010 results, with the Republican advantage sharply bouncing back in the council districts after a much less favorable 2012 presidential election years. However, two council districts projected to be Republican using 2010 numbers, remained underwater in 2014. District 2 located declined from 51.98% in 2010 to 49.78% in 2014. Also, District 16, a south Center Township district which edges into Perry and Wayne Townships also flipped. Brooks had the district baseline of 51.55% using 2010 numbers, but the baseline dropped to 49.13% this year.

The worst part of the numbers is that the GOP will be defending scores of districts. The Democrats have strong majorities in 10 districts, i.e. not a single one of which has less than a 59% Democratic baseline. Republicans meanwhile only have five districts with a 59% or more Republican baseline. Of the other 10 districts drawn by Brooks to be Republican, here are the baselines.

District 2 49.78%
District 4 57.01%
District 3 53.95%
District 5 55.08%
District 6 55.15%
District 15 55.02
District 16 49.13%
District 19 52.5%
District 21 50.75%
District 22 54.78%

Translation: If the Democrats improve turnout, they not only could have a majority on the council, the Democrats could have a supermajority.

I'm sorry I don't have information on where the councilors live and how these numbers will affect those councilors and the candidates who might oppose them.

About Me

I have been an attorney since the Fall of 1987. I have worked in every branch of government, including a stint as a Deputy Attorney General, a clerk for a judge on the Indiana Court of Appeals, and I have worked three sessions at the Indiana State Senate.
During my time as a lawyer, I have worked not only in various government positions, but also in private practice as a trial attorney handing an assortment of mostly civil cases.
I have also been politically active and run this blog in an effort to add my voice to those calling for reform.