Politico: 99 Democrat seats on the wall, 99 Democrat seats …

posted at 1:36 pm on October 19, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

While Gallup reports that the pool of likely voters hasn’t changed much over the past month, Politico reports that another measure keeps increasing: the number of Democratic seats at risk in the election. Suddenly, instead of just the Blue Dog seats that Rahm Emanuel worked hard to win in 2006, the midterms are putting a number of traditionally Democratic seats on the watch list, too. The expansion of the field plays well for Republicans, who have more ammunition and more resources than Democrats playing defense:

Freshman Democrats make up a large share — more than a quarter — of those facing competitive races. Of the 38 Democrats serving their first full terms in the House, POLITICO rates 29 as at-risk. Some — such as Reps. Bobby Bright of Alabama, Betsy Markey of Colorado, Alan Grayson of Florida and Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland — hail from GOP-friendly districts, where they have been in the cross hairs almost since the moment they were elected.

But legislative vets are under fire too. Nine-term New York Rep. Maurice Hinchey and four-term Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva until recently were considered near-locks to win, before their campaigns hit unexpected turbulence. Hinchey attracted unflattering attention this weekend after a videotaped confrontation with a reporter at the same time American Crossroads and other GOP groups are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into ads in his district.

Grijalva, who called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment, has also been hit by outside spending right after an automated poll unexpectedly showed him in a dead heat with his GOP opponent.

The list also includes a handful of veteran Democrats who typically enjoy the benefits of seniority on Capitol Hill and cruise to reelection but this year find themselves locked in competitive races. Among those Democrats are Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton of Missouri and Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt of South Carolina.

Getting outhustled in fundraising is another way for candidates to find themselves on the bubble.

In a sign of GOP momentum — and of the breadth of the competitive landscape — at least 40 Democratic incumbents were outraised by their GOP challengers in the most recent quarter, according to FEC filings. Reps. Ron Klein of Florida and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin of South Dakota, both stellar fundraisers, were among those outraised in the latest reporting period.

Politico sees 99 Democratic seats in play, which would put Republicans in position for a win on a scale not seen in decades. Charlie Cook says it looks like a 52-seat rout along the same lines as 1994, but that would be just barely over a half-and-half split of endangered seats. Democrats may be hoping for 52 seats as a floor at this point in time.

Part of the problem is money. While Democrats have raised more in their party organizations, money has poured into conservative political action committees around the country. Unions usually fill the gap, but voter anger has outpaced union organization in this cycle. That’s because the bigger problem isn’t money at all, but the sorry economic record of Democrats after four years in control of Congress, and of Obama himself after two years in the White House. Instead of bolstering an environment of economic growth, Democrats have used the crisis as an excuse to fund hobby-horse social-engineering projects, expand government authority, and spend like drunken sailors.

Small wonder, then, that members of leadership like Skelton finds himself in deep trouble in a relatively balanced district. James Oberstar couldn’t even get more than a single contribution to his campaign from inside his district in the entire third quarter. John Spratt once claimed in 2006 that a failure to produce a complete budget was a disqualification for control of Congress, but four years later his party couldn’t even produce a budget resolution in a chamber they controlled by 77 seats. Grijalva’s problems are more local; after calling for an economic boycott of his own state, his constituents want someone who isn’t actively trying to kneecap local businesses.

In this cycle, don’t be terribly surprised if 99 turns out to be a conservative number, in more ways than one.

I would gladly trade Pelosi 10 or so Democrat “freshmen” from Republican districts soiling their diapers these last two weeks they’re so scared for the guarantee of one big fat Barney Frank’s head on a platter.

In this cycle, don’t be terribly surprised if 99 turns out to be a conservative number, in more ways than one.

In light of this, Rush has had one of his most profound shows today in regards to what, exactly, the GOP majority will do. I hope many within D.C. are paying close attention. This is not politics as usual. We want big government rejected in principle, and every decision to be based on that, with the moderation in pace and not direction. Turn this freaking ship around, heading back on course.

I’m all about an upset. but lets not get ahead of ourselves. The media has already been talking up the “If the GOP doesn’t take all 55 it’a complete loss” line. Let’s leave the 200 talk to dreams. Last thing we need is the MSM saying; they thought they were getting 200 and they only got 60 what losers.
Expect less and be happy if you get more.

I have this dream that one day we’ll wake up to a new America where we have a Communist Party, a Neutral party, a Conservative party, and the remnants of the old GOP. Perhaps with half a dozen splinter parties, and we’ll struggle to form a coalition government every two years.

The GOP won’t do crap over the next two years if they win back the House. And this time next year, HotAirians will be pitching a fit about how the GOP is sucking!!

I heard RICHARD LUGAR quoted as being a “CONSERVATIVE” in an article today talking about how Sharon Angle and her views are old and have been tried before and that these TeaParties don’t know what they’re talking about etc.

I think the GOP Leadership (PROGRESSIVE THAT IT IS) would rather have the DEMS in power playing the “BAD COP” role and letting the Dems grow the FEDGOV power while the BREADCRUMB REPUBLICANS get what the Dems throw from the table.

In light of this, Rush has had one of his most profound shows today in regards to what, exactly, the GOP majority will do. I hope many within D.C. are paying close attention. This is not politics as usual. We want big government rejected in principle, and every decision to be based on that, with the moderation in pace and not direction. Turn this freaking ship around, heading back on course.

Grijalva, who called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment, has also been hit by outside spending right after an automated poll unexpectedly showed him in a dead heat with his GOP opponent.

Couldn’t happen to a dumber bloke.

That’s because the bigger problem isn’t money at all, but the sorry economic record of Democrats after four years in control of Congress, and of Obama himself after two years in the White House. Instead of bolstering an environment of economic growth, Democrats have used the crisis as an excuse to fund hobby-horse social-engineering projects, expand government authority, and spend like drunken sailors.

Add “with the utmost impertinence and disregard of voters” and it’s a perfect summation.

I HIGHLY suspect they’ll start publishing stats and figures that say more house seats will be lost than are even up for election before this is all over.

Skywise on October 19, 2010 at 1:44 PM

That might explain the CNN report that in this midterm election of the 625 seats up for election the Republicans are favored to win 730 of them. Anything less is a crushing, total failure of the Republican party and proof-positive that conservatism is dead and that people want more progressive, America-changing policies from Obama for the next 6 years.

If it is only 99, Gibbs claims an huge victory for the dems and for the country.
“The people have spoken, it is clear that they want to continue this administration agenda, not every democrat lost and Obama is still president. Obama is looking forward to the Republicans working with the agenda that Obama has prepared.”

Getting outhustled in fundraising is another way for candidates to find themselves on the bubble.

BS. They are not in trouble because they’re getting outraised, they’re getting outraised because they’re in trouble. The Republicans are able to expand the target becuase voters are mad as hell at Dems, not because Repubs have access to more capital.

While money is a factor, you can’t buy 100 seats in the House. If you could, Soros wouldn’t be sitting this election out.

In light of this, Rush has had one of his most profound shows today in regards to what, exactly, the GOP majority will do.
Weight of Glory on October 19, 2010 at 1:49 PM

In the first hour Rush was talking about a WSJ article quoting Darrell Issa about after agreeing to disagree with the dems we have to compromise with them. No way should we consider such madness. If we win big there should be no compromise, no crossing the aisle and no turning back.

Three things that will turn a young Obama supporter into a Republican:

1) Moving out of your parents house
2) Getting a job (ot getting laid off from one)
3) Getting smacked with $1900 fine for not
purchasing health insurance

I am beginning to think think that Obama really was a Manchurian Candidate… not for the Communists, but for the GOP. There won’t be another Democratic Trifecta (WH, Senate, HoR) in our lifetimes, thanks to him.

Good for you! This election is the most importat we’ve had, possibly in our lifetimes. Rush is reading Darrel Issa the riot act about it now. He told Issa that the American people want Obama stopped. Period.

Let’s not get overconfident with dreams of taking 99 House seats, but if the Dems have to spend money DEFENDING that many, there will be less money for EACH at-risk seat. Anything over 40 is a success (majority), anything under 40 is failure. Since no one knows WHICH will be the 40th seat, let’s go after as many as possible, but not be disappointed with a 50-seat win.

If Republicans do win 60 or 70 seats, the next question will be to get them all on the same page. Some of the new freshmen might not know how Congress works, and will have to be assigned to committees, and this is where the LEADERSHIP comes in–organizing a governing majority, to pass bills that can be negotiated with a divided Senate.

The present GOP leadership wants to maintain control of the party and convince incoming Republicans to toe the mark. The question to be answered is: Who will the incoming Republicans dance with…the party leadership or the ones who brought them to the ball. The party leadership can tempt them with campaign money and plum committee assignments, but the voters can toss their turncoat a$$es back out in the street in two years. In the final analysis it comes down to character; who has it and who doesn’t.

Don’t know if my representative Brad Miller from NC-13 (D+5) is on that list, but he should be. He is running scared. I received campaign literature from him where he had the audacity to cast the GOP candidate, a complete outsider, as a typical Washington politician.

If you would be so kind and generous to help him out these last two weeks with a small donation, we in the 13th district of NC would greatly appreciate it.

In the first hour Rush was talking about a WSJ article quoting Darrell Issa about after agreeing to disagree with the dems we have to compromise with them. No way should we consider such madness. If we win big there should be no compromise, no crossing the aisle and no turning back.

fourdeucer on October 19, 2010 at 2:11 PM

Whether Republicans should compromise depends on what issue is being discussed. Since all revenue-raising bills must originate in the House, a GOP House majority can de-fund ObamaCare, and possibly force tax cuts.

But Issa might have a point on other issues. Although Republicans will probably gain seats in the Senate this year, there is no way they will get a filibuster-proof majority, and they may still be in the minority, although in a stronger position to sustain filibusters.

Any legislation that needs Senate approval will need votes from some Democrats, so that Republican Senators will need to negotiate with “centrist” Democrats (and those up for re-election in 2012) to get 60 votes for cloture. A House-passed bill will most likely get “watered down” in the Senate, and will have to be “reconciled” with the House version in conference committee, so that some negotiation and compromise will be required to get ANYTHING done.

A GOP House majority can successfully put the brakes on the Obama agenda, which Republicans would never pass, but any positive legislation will need some Democrat votes in the Senate, so this is where negotiating skill and healthy cojones will be needed by Republican leaders in Congress.

Oh lordy I hope so, but until then I shall endeavor not to count the chickens before they hatch. It’s still a (ever shrinking) while to election day, and we can’t take anything for granted. Now it’s all about turnout and we need to do our very best to get like minded individuals to the polls!

Allah, Ed, we need an open thread about people’s plans for Nov. 2 & 3. How is everyone spending the day? I’m thinking of getting a case of Sam Adams Dunkelweizen and making a trash bag’s worth of popcorn, preparatory to a night and day spent watching Fox News through an online feed (haven’t had TV for years).

Its a great sentiment. And we see Rush, Sarah Palin and even Michael Steel sounding clear warnings to the GOP establishment about this. We need to recognize that the GOP is undergoing a reformation of sorts while simultaneously gaining electoral traction.

But Pappy, the real point here is this: It is past time to EXPECT GOP leadership to institute Conservative principles – it is high time to DEMAND they do so.

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez has a glaring advantage in cash over her Republican challenger, Van Tran

BUT! –

Sanchez and Tran have been locked in a tight race, although national pundits have given the edge to Sanchez. Over the weekend, though, Tran’s campaign released the results of a survey by Republican pollsters Public Opinion Strategies that suggest Tran has pulled even with Sanchez.
The survey of 300 likely voters found 39 percent support Tran, 39 percent support Sanchez, 5 percent support Iglesias and the rest remain undecided. But the survey had a margin of error of nearly 6 percent, and the polling company did not return a phone call seeking more details about its methodology, its questions or whom it surveyed.

Rep. Sanchez is the Chairwoman of the Border Security Committee in the U.S. Congress, yet in this video of a speech she gave to the Hispanic Caucus she boasts that she has the “power to stop a fence that looks just like the fence put up in Germany.”

tommer74 on October 19, 2010 at 1:46 PM
Not to jinx things, but I am taking Nov. 3 off just to gloat.

Noble? No. Gracious? No. Satisfying? Ooooooooh yes.

Allah, Ed, we need an open thread about people’s plans for Nov. 2 & 3. How is everyone spending the day? I’m thinking of getting a case of Sam Adams Dunkelweizen and making a trash bag’s worth of popcorn, preparatory to a night and day spent watching Fox News through an online feed (haven’t had TV for years).

Rosmerta on October 19, 2010 at 3:04 PM

True, Rosmerta! I am taking 11.3 as a vacation day so I can stay up all night long on election night (if necessary) watching the returns on Fox and then MSNBC so I can watch them cry. (Evil laugh).

I’ll probably spend part of the time watching with my parents and the other time at my house. Definitely eating popcorn!

Allah, Ed, we need an open thread about people’s plans for Nov. 2 & 3. How is everyone spending the day? I’m thinking of getting a case of Sam Adams Dunkelweizen and making a trash bag’s worth of popcorn, preparatory to a night and day spent watching Fox News through an online feed (haven’t had TV for years).

Rosmerta on October 19, 2010 at 3:04 PM

I will be poll watching on the 2nd and Gloating, partying, hugging and dancing on the 3rd. On the 4th it’s back to work (getting Dems out of office). I took a week off from my real job.

I am beginning to think think that Obama really was a Manchurian Candidate… not for the Communists, but for the GOP. There won’t be another Democratic Trifecta (WH, Senate, HoR) in our lifetimes, thanks to him.

I hope you’re right but Beck last night had a short segment where he talked about the Truman election. The Republicans had a wave election in Congress, but were blamed for being a “do nothing” Congress, and then two years later were voted out off office and didn’t control Congress again for decades. Less than two years ago we were supposed to have Democratic dominance for the next 40 years. We can’t ever let our guard down.

117 seats would be a veto proof house majority. It would cause heads to explode on the left and in the media. I don’t recall when a party lost fifty percent of its congressional seats, though perhaps after Watergate, that might have occurred. Anyway, we can have a drinking game on November 3 for every liberal reporter who claims that the election was one of anger, temper tantrum, rather than of hope and change, you get to drink a shot of your fave beverage.