As their convention in Minnesota gets under way, Republicans are feeling a little better. Barack Obama hasn't blown the presidential race wide open, as many expected. The McCain campaign's charge that he's a celebrity, not a tested leader--widely mocked at first--seems to have caught on. In some key states, McCain may even be gaining ground.

Good news for the GOP, right? Actually, the exact opposite. Of all the disasters that have befallen the Republican Party in recent years, the most cataclysmic may be about to unfold: John McCain might win.