But it’s not necessarily a given that Bolling would sink the Republican nominee and throw the election to Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Experts say, and polling in the race shows, that the effects of a Bolling candidacy could be more complicated than that.

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Bolling, who’s slated to announce his decision on March 14, raised more eyebrows last week when he sent an email to supporters and posted a survey on his website asking for feedback on whether they’d support an independent bid.

“The assumption at first was that Bolling would simply split the Republican vote and help McAuliffe, but now I think that’s seen as very simplistic,” said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato. “Both of these candidates, McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, have big vulnerabilities … so for Bolling, the trick is going to be to pull [support] equally from both of them.”

While it would be premature to put much stock in polling at this stage of the race, early surveys show Bolling drawing support in roughly equal measures from Cuccinelli and McAuliffe.

A Quinnipiac poll out Feb. 20 showed the two candidates tied at 38 percent each in a head-to-head matchup – when Bolling was included, they were still tied at 34 percent each and Bolling took 13 percent of the vote.

A Public Policy Polling survey from January gave McAuliffe more of an advantage if Bolling entered the race – the poll showed him with a 5-point lead over Cuccinelli, 46-41, that expanded to 8 points when Bolling was included.

Though they’re reluctant to say it, Democrats believe that as more voters start tuning in to the race, moderate Republicans will be turned off by Cuccinelli’s positions on social issues and look to Bolling instead. If Bolling could siphon enough support away from Cuccinelli on the right and among independents, it would leave ample opening for McAuliffe to win the race with support from Democrats.

Bolling has worked in recent months to position himself as a moderate Republican, criticizing Cuccinelli’s rhetoric and even casting the tie-breaking vote with Democrats in the state senate on voter ID legislation last month. As a result, he’d appeal to Republicans who like current Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell but may see Cuccinelli as too far to the right.

But for Cuccinelli backers, polling so far of a hypothetical three-way race suggests that Bolling would also pull support from moderate Democrats who have doubts about McAuliffe – and thus be less of a threat to Cuccinelli. In that case, Bolling’s entrance into the race could be a wash or even help Cuccinelli, if Bolling took more support from moderate Democrats than he does from moderate Republicans.

”The base of the Republican Party is much more supportive of their candidate for governor than the base of the Democratic Party is for their candidate,” said one GOP strategist familiar with Virginia politics. “People are motivated to support Terry McAuliffe not because they like Terry McAuliffe, but because they don’t like Ken [Cuccinelli].”

If most voters are a long way from fully tuning into the governor’s race and weighing their options in detail, Virginia’s class of political donors is further along in that process. At least some Republican-leaning business leaders say that Cuccinelli versus McAuliffe is a tough choice for them – but that Bolling would be a relatively safe place for middle-of-the-road donor cash to go.