Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Despite The Headlines September 2012 Was Not An Extraordinarily Deadly Month

Headlines said that September 2012 was the deadliest month
in Iraq for two years. That’s only because Baghdad has been artificially it
seems keeping down its death tolls since the end of 2010. Other organizations
like Iraq Body Count had September’s casualties being lower than the previous
three months, while averaging the statistics found that September was much like
July. That goes to show that when the official mortality numbers are released
each month for Iraq, they need to be placed in context and analyzed closely.

Despite Iraq’s ministries’ claims, September 2012 was
actually not much different from the rest of the summer, which has seen an
uptick in attacks due to the on-going offensive by the insurgency. The Defense,
Interior, and Health Ministries claimed there were 365 deaths in September. That was a large jump from the 164 reported in August, but close to July’s 325.
Last month was the highest official casualty figure since July 2010 when
Baghdad claimed 534 casualties. September was also one of the rare occasions
when the government’s numbers were higher than Iraq Body Count. It had 356 deaths for the month. That was actually down from August’s 393, July’s 414,
and June’s 495. Placing the statistics in context showed that the Iraqi government
actually reported believable numbers for September. That month and July were
the only two for 2012 that were comparable with Iraq Body Count, which has
consistently been the most reliable source for deaths in Iraq since the U.S.
invasion in 2003. Otherwise, Baghdad has consistently been keeping its monthly
counts below 200. The government is likely doing that on purpose to portray the
country as being more secure now that the American
military has withdrawn. That trend is highlighted when looking at the
ministries’ numbers for 2011 when only five months had less than 200 deaths.

Deaths In Iraq 2010-2012

Month

Iraq Body Count

Iraqi Ministries

Avg. Monthly Deaths

Avg. Daily Deaths

Jan. 2010

260

196

228

7.3

Feb.

301

236

268

9.5

Mar.

335

183

259

8.3

Apr.

381

259

320

10.6

May

377

279

328

10.5

Jun.

377

176

276

9.2

Jul.

424

534

269

8.6

Aug.

516

363

439

14.1

Sep.

252

174

213

7.1

Oct.

311

185

248

8.0

Nov.

302

174

238

7.9

Dec.

217

128

172

5.5

2010 Mo. Avg.

337

240

271

8.8

Jan. 2011

387

259

323

10.4

Feb.

250

167

208

7.4

Mar.

307

247

277

8.9

Apr.

285

211

246

8.2

May

378

177

277

8.9

Jun.

385

271

328

10.9

Jul.

305

259

282

9.0

Aug.

398

239

318

10.2

Sep.

394

185

289

9.6

Oct.

355

258

306

9.8

Nov.

272

187

229

7.6

Dec.

386

155

270

8.7

2011 Mo. Avg.

341

217

279

9.1

Jan. 2012

492

151

321

10.3

Feb.

316

150

233

8.3

Mar.

340

112

226

7.2

Apr.

315

126

220

7.3

May

229

132

180

5.8

Jun.

495

131

313

10.4

Jul.

414

325

369

11.9

Aug.

393

164

278

8.9

Sep.

356

365

360

12.0

2012 Mo. Avg.

372

184

277

9.1

The average of the government and Iraq Body Count’s figures
showed the on-going summer offensive by the insurgency. In September, there
were an average of 360 deaths, and 12.0 per day. That was up from 278 in
August, and 8.9 casualties per day, but comparable to July, which had 369
deaths and 11.9 a day. June was the beginning of the offensive with an average
of 313 deaths and 10.4 per day, a large jump from May’s 180 and 5.8 per day.
Last year the summer campaign only lasted until October. Hopefully that means
militants have a month more left in them before they ramp down their
activities. Overall, Iraq’s insurgents have been carrying out around the same number of attacks since the second half of 2011. What has changed is that
those acts have grown deadlier with a higher average number of casualties per
attack since the 3rd quarter of 2011. Again, this shows the nuances
of violence in Iraq.

Iraq is a country full of contradictions. It is a place with
a huge number of terrorist acts, but most of those happen in a few select
cities. During certain months violence ramps up, and then taps down. On top of
that, it has a government that apparently is trying to cover up the levels of
instability that still remain. That’s part of the complicated tapestry that
makes up Iraq’s current security situation. It’s these differences that need to
be noted every time the monthly death tolls are released, because the raw
numbers alone only provide a small picture of what’s going on.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com