Literature Review of Long-Term Mortality Projections

Table equivalent for Chart 1. Difference between past Social Security Trustees' forecasts of life expectancy and actual life expectancy for males and females, 2000 (predicted minus actual life expectancy)

Year

Male

Female

At age 65 in 2000

At birth in 2000

At age 65 in 2000

At birth in 2000

1952

-1.8

-2.6

-3.0

-3.9

1953

--

--

--

--

1954

--

--

--

--

1955

--

--

--

--

1956

--

--

--

--

1957

-0.8

-2.6

-1.4

-2.3

1958

--

--

--

--

1959

--

--

--

--

1960

--

--

--

--

1961

--

--

--

--

1962

--

--

--

--

1963

--

--

--

--

1964

--

--

--

--

1965

--

--

--

--

1966

-1.5

-3.7

-2.2

-3.0

1967

--

--

--

--

1968

--

--

--

--

1969

--

--

--

--

1970

--

--

--

--

1971

--

--

--

--

1972

--

--

--

--

1973

--

--

--

--

1974

-2.2

-5.0

-0.8

-2.5

1975

--

--

--

--

1976

--

--

--

--

1977

-1.2

-3.7

0.0

-1.4

1978

-1.2

-3.7

0.0

-1.4

1980

-0.3

-1.2

2.3

1.8

1981

0.0

-1.1

2.2

1.7

1983

-0.1

-0.6

1.9

1.6

1984

-0.1

-0.3

1.9

1.7

1985

0.0

-0.1

1.8

1.8

1986

-0.2

-0.1

1.4

1.6

1987

-0.2

-0.1

1.2

1.4

1988

-0.1

-1.8

0.9

0.8

1989

-0.2

-1.3

0.7

0.7

1990

-0.2

-1.4

0.6

0.5

1991

0.1

-1.1

0.7

0.5

1992

-0.5

-1.4

0.4

0.3

1993

-0.4

-1.4

0.5

0.3

1994

-0.2

-1.0

0.5

0.3

1995

-0.3

-1.1

0.4

0.3

1996

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.8

1997

0.0

-0.8

0.4

0.3

1998

0.0

-0.5

0.4

0.2

1999

0.0

-0.2

0.3

0.2

2000

0.1

-0.1

0.3

0.2

SOURCES: Based on the concept established by S. Jay Olshansky, "On Forecasting Mortality," The Milbank Quarterly 66(3): 489–498, Table 1 and Figures 1–4 (1988). Data for 1952–1987 are from Olshansky (1988). Data for 1988—2000 are from the Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary, available at http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/index.html. Differences between predicted and actual life expectancy are author's calculations.