BCA: Bear market not in sight

According to our Global Investment Strategy service, equities have not yet been fully washed out, but a bear market is not in sight.

The current correction has further to run based on most technical indicators, which have not yet hit levels that typically indicate a selling climax. Investors will likely remain nervous in the near term due to several headwinds including slowing U.S. profit growth, continuation of the sub prime crisis, and persistent hawkishness by certain central banks. However, a bear market is very unlikely as interest rates and inflation are low and equities remain attractively priced. Moreover, U.S. firms are underleveraged, leaving them with room to absorb negative shocks. Bottom line: equities should undergo more stress but the bull market that started in 2003 is intact.