The Ashes: And the winner is ...

The past match says England. But the the one before that said Australia, and the one before that England, and every time the precedent was misleading. When both teams say now they'll forget about the previous match, each for their own reason, you have to believe them. Three times already in this series, they've played as if the previous match never happened.

Recent English history says Australia. England have alternated victory and defeat in their past seven matches. Following that pattern, England would lose here and win the Ashes at The Oval. Captain Alastair Cook says if it came to that, he would take it. The sweep of Ashes history is less instructive. England have won the past two here, in 2005 and 2013, but before that, Australia had lost here only once since 1930.

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The tendency of teams in the pinch Australia are now in is to lower their eyes, narrow their focus and concentrate on the next ball.Credit:Gettty Images

The Australians have seized on another historical angle, in several forums likening England's loss of Jimmy Anderson to the fateful accident that put Glenn McGrath out of the Edgbaston Test in 2005 and become an unambiguous turning point in that remarkable series.

Perhaps the pitch will provide a clue. Generally, it favours batsmen without breaking bowlers' backs. Last year, though, it yielded runs at barely more than three an over as England and India played a gruelling draw. Later, the ICC issued a rebuke to Nottinghamshire.

Since, the Test pitch has been relaid, so becomes another unknown in a summer of imponderables. On Tuesday, 24 hours ahead of its match-day shave, Australian captain Michael Clarke thought it looked identical to the pitch at Edgbaston for the third Test at the same stage. The forecast is for cloud every day, and the groundsman expects the ball to swing throughout. Clarke says it is still a bat-first pitch, but Australia would first have to bat better, first.

So the captains must have some idea about what will happen?

"Runs would be nice, but I'd take a win," Clarke said. Well, what about a theory on the gigantic fluctuations? "I can't explain," he said. Cook tried: "I think it probably proves both sides are striving to play their best cricket." When one or the other got on top, they played ruthlessly.

But who this time? Selection might provide some guidance, surely? England will make only one forced change, replacing Anderson, inescapably weakening them. He was man-of-the-match here last time. As for Australia, the division of players among drills and the division of intensity among players at training pointed to an unchanged side, after all that. Certainly the attack will remain intact, and Adam Voges versus Shaun Marsh in the middle order is line ball. But on Wednesday, nothing had been formalised. Nothing about this series ever is.

What about nets form? Josh Hazlewood sat Steve Smith on his backside, which was encouraging. Smith crashed a net bowler into the second tier of the grandstand, which for the bowler was less encouraging. But it was only the nets.

And yet the nets are all there is. The tendency of all professional sporting teams in the pinch Australia are now in is to lower their eyes, narrow their focus and concentrate on the next ball, the next exercise, the next rotation. Otherwise, dwelling on the previous result or overthinking the next, they would go mad. They can't change the latest result and they can't pre-empt the next, but they can devote themselves to honing fundamental skills, the bowling and hitting and chasing and catching, that are their primal joys and that make them who they are.

So, pall notwithstanding, Australia's net sessions have been hives of activity, with laughs plentiful and spirits outwardly high. And if the captain is a little feisty, that is no bad thing. "I'm not retiring," he replied, to a question he wasn't asked.

Besides, the upside to all the uncertainty is the possibility that the next twist might be the most wondrous yet. When in a corner, Steve Waugh would drive himself on by thinking about how much sweeter victory would be, and how much more glorious. Trent Bridge lends itself perfectly to the exercise. Some modern grounds have buried their ghosts beneath concrete and perspex, but Trent Bridge, by keeping its quaint and quirky character, has kept its heroic ghosts alive, too. It is the sort of ground where you just might see something never seen before.

In 1938, as Stan McCabe was speeding to 232, Don Bradman called the rest of the Australian to the dressing room balcony, saying: "Come and watch this; you will never see its like again." The balcony has not changed. In 2013, Ashton Agar played an astonishing debut innings of 98, still the highest score by a No. 11 in Test history. If someone did not also exclaim then that you will never see an innings like it again, they should have. It almost founded for Australia a victory as stylishly larcenous as any pulled off by that fictional cricketer-thief, A.J. Raffles.

Australia is not quite depending a miracle this time, though one would be handy.

Last and least, what do the pundits day? This column predicts England. That way, Australia should win.