Moving Targets: Week 12

Moving Targets is a weekly column focused on tidbits and trends from target data, with an eye toward forecasting future value spikes for fantasy players. … My focus will be on the target numbers themselves, highlighting a few I find interesting. Each section will include a short blurb of analysis, but mostly I will allow you — the wise reader — to draw the conclusions you wish from the data.

Chicago Bears

Week 11 Targets

Previous Avg

+/-

Marquess Wilson

11

4

7

Cameron Meredith

9

5.6

3.4

Josh Bellamy

9

1

8

Deonte Thompson

9

0.3

8.7

Chicago has moved on to its third starting quarterback of the year, Matt Barkley. He threw a TON in Week 12, and the chart above shows some of his main targets. Marquess Wilson, only recently returned from injury, was the biggest beneficiary. Cameron Meredith remains highly involved, along with two unknowns. Marquess Wilson is a very intriguing dynasty name who was discarded this year, but he may have a small resurgence in the rest of 2016. He’s a name to know.

New Orleans Saints

Week 11 Targets

Previous Avg

+/-

Michael Thomas

10

7.4

2.6

Willie Snead

7

7

0

Josh Hill

6

2

4

Brandin Cooks

0

7.5

-7.5

How many Cooks in the kitchen is too many? New Orleans said one was too many in Week 12. Boom! For that kind of joke, you can come back every week. But seriously, Drew Brees has fully bought in to the Michael Thomas hype train, and this kid is legit. I doubt you can actually buy him in dynasty, but I’d absolutely try. Willie Snead remains consistent, and Josh Hill has a sneaky week. I like Snead moving forward, but Hill only has value in very deep redraft leagues.

San Francisco 49ers

Week 11 Targets

Previous Avg

+/-

Vance McDonald

8

4.1

3.9

Torrey Smith

7

4.2

2.8

Carlos Hyde

6

2.3

3.7

Shaun Draughn

6

1.7

4.3

What happens when Colin Kaepernick throws more than 40 times and finishes as the best fantasy quarterback of the week? We just saw. Vance McDonald saw the most targets, but Torrey Smith returned to a healthy 7. I doubt the 49ers offense throws quite this many times most weeks, but those are my top two targets when they do. My other big note was that Kaepernick threw 12 passes to his top two RBs, making them very interesting PPR backs in games you expect SF to throw often.

Washington Redskins

Week 11 Targets

Previous Avg

+/-

Jordan Reed

12

8.6

3.4

Jamison Crowder

10

6.6

3.4

DeSean Jackson

8

6.9

1.1

Vernon Davis

7

3

4

Jordan Reed came back into the Thanksgiving game despite a grade-three sprain of his AC joint. In normal English, he played through one hell of a bad separated shoulder! Injury concerns are real, but Reed is a legitimate fantasy asset every time he is on the field. Also legitimate: Jamison Crowder. As opposed to Michael Thomas, discussed above, Crowder is a target you may actually be able to acquire in dynasty leagues. I would do so. Vernon Davis has sneaky deep league potential for redraft leagues, but in general, I’m not trusting him unless Reed misses time.

Josh has spent more than a decade in 2QB leagues, focusing on the bottom of the barrel when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks. His research focuses on quarterbacks, and he tries not to pretend he knows anything about the other positions. You can find him on Twitter at @LakeTwoQBs.