The Front-Runner in Germany Runs Scared

By MARK LANDLER

Published: September 16, 2005

Three days before an election that has become unexpectedly suspenseful, Angela Merkel turned up on Thursday in this ancient city on the Rhine with a blunt message: Chancellor Gerhard Schr? has failed, and his government ought to be thrown out.

''A person who doesn't have the support of his own party can't put Germany on the right path,'' said Mrs. Merkel, who, as leader of the opposition Christian Democratic Union, is poised to achieve two firsts: the first woman to become German chancellor and the first former East German to lead the reunified country.

''He promised they would reduce unemployment by two million,'' Mrs. Merkel declared, recalling a target that Mr. Schr? set before his second term. ''Instead it grew. That's the truth.''

Her audience of several hundred cheered often, if not quite passionately. Orange placards with the name ''Angie'' bobbed above the crowd, as the afternoon sun dipped behind Mainz's red-stone cathedral.

Mrs. Merkel is not a feel-good politician. Her stump speeches are lengthy, serious and larded with details. She rarely smiles, and responds to hecklers with a curt tone. She does not look like an Angie.

Yet Mrs. Merkel's sense of grim purpose may suit the moment. After spending four months with a seemingly unassailable lead in the polls, she finds herself in a dogfight with Mr. Schr?.

Mrs. Merkel, 51, is still likely to become chancellor after the vote on Sunday. But her preferred coalition, with the Free Democratic Party, has been falling just short of a majority in the most recent polls. She may have to settle for leading a so-called grand coalition of her Christian Democratic Union and Mr. Schr?'s Social Democratic Party.

Given the aura of political invincibility that has enveloped Mrs. Merkel since a weakened Mr. Schr? called for elections in May, that would be seen almost as a defeat.

The campaign has been bumpy for Mrs. Merkel, with a few missteps by her and more blatant gaffes by some of her allies. But what has made the real difference, political analysts say, has been a nimble performance by Mr. Schr? down the stretch.

He has achieved a sort of role reversal, putting Mrs. Merkel on the defensive for her proposals, while largely avoiding any discussion of his own government's record. ''For months, the C.D.U. has been seen as representing a new government,'' said Gerd Langguth, the author of a biography of Mrs. Merkel. ''Everybody is asking, 'What would Merkel do,' not, 'What has Schr? done?'''

Mrs. Merkel has played into that strategy, with her penchant for offering detailed policy prescriptions. On Thursday, as she began an explanation of how her party's tax proposals would affect people in various income brackets, people began drifting away from the rally.

''We're telling you before the election what we will do after the election,'' she said. ''We don't want people to be afraid, so that's why we're telling you in clear terms what we plan to do.''

In his speeches, Mr. Schr? sticks to generalities about his efforts, while cheerfully ripping into Mrs. Merkel's proposals.

The Christian Democrats have given the chancellor some easy targets, starting with a plan to raise the value-added tax to 18 percent, from 16 percent. Mrs. Merkel said it was needed to plug Germany's ballooning budget deficit; Mr. Schr? said it would hurt lower-income people.

Then Mrs. Merkel appointed Paul Kirchhof, an academic who advocates a flat tax, as her economic adviser. She was initially praised for her boldness, but she has been forced to defend Mr. Kirchhof, to whom the chancellor derisively refers as ''the professor from Heidelberg.''

This week, under pressure from party leaders, she welcomed back Friedrich Merz, a party authority on budget matters, who had resigned his post last year after a clash with Mrs. Merkel.

Although she has a remarkable personal story -- the shy daughter of a Lutheran minister in East Germany who rose to the top of a male-dominated West German party -- Mrs. Merkel rarely invokes it.

To her supporters in the crowd in this historical German town, however, Mrs. Merkel's shortcomings as a candidate are less important than her message.

''She has so much courage,'' said Hanna Kaltenbach, 58. ''Schr? is a media star, but he is shallow.''

Andreas Baldauf, 22, a business student at the University of Mannheim, said: ''Gerhard Schr? had seven years to fix the situation, and he didn't. It's time to give Angie a chance.''

As Mrs. Merkel left the stage, ''Angie,'' the 1970's song by the Rolling Stones, warbled from loudspeakers. It has become the theme song of her campaign, and the crowd did not seem bothered to hear Mick Jagger sing, ''All the dreams we held so close seemed to all go up in smoke.''