Thursday, 1 December 2016

Who’s afraid of the Em Five Es?

Ahead of Sunday's referendum, Prof. Jim Newell (IPSG Chair) reflects on the role and impact of the Five Star Movement in the post-vote scenario.

Who’s afraid of the Em Five Es?

It is widely
believed that if Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform in Italy
is not passed, then comedian Beppe Grillo’s Five-star Movement (M5s)
could cause considerable political, not to say
economic, upset. The belief arises from the fact that the M5s wants a
referendum on Italy’s membership of the Euro. And if Italy were to leave
the Euro, it is suggested, then the EU itself would be placed in
danger.

It is thought
that if the No side loses then Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi will
resign. A period of political uncertainty and turmoil will, so one story
goes, put wind in the Movement’s sails, and fresh
elections will see an M5s victory. Elections have to be held no later
than early 2018.

But others
have suggested an alternative, even more lurid scenario. According to
this, Renzi wins. Fresh elections are held on the basis of the new
electoral law that is linked to the constitutional
reform. This puts the M5s in an even stronger position. For the law
assigns 55% of the seats to the winning list provided it achieves at
least 40%. If it doesn’t, then there is a run-off between the two
most-voted lists, with 55% of the seats going to the winner
at that stage. So according to this scenario, the M5s wins an overall
majority. It is able to govern alone, without any need for a coalition.
This causes even greater havoc by making an exit from the euro even more
likely.

Neither scenario is at all plausible. To see this, consider first of all who the Grillini are.

The Five-star
Movement was started in 2009 by Grillo and the web strategist,
Gianroberto Casaleggio. He had the intuition that the Internet could be
used as the basis for a new kind of party, one without
organisation, money, ideology or headquarters. This encouraged Grillo to
use his blog and the social networking site, Meetup.com, to bring
people together to campaign on local issues and then field candidates
for elections. So the Movement drew initial strength
from the twin ideas of a new form of direct democracy and popular
disgust with the political elites. This meant that it drew support from
across the political spectrum. Therefore, its policies have always been
an eclectic mix of the anti-establishment, environmentalist,
anti-globalist and Eurosceptic. At the 2013 general election it came
from nowhere to become the second most-voted party. Through ups and
downs, its poll ratings have stood at around 30% ever since.

Its current
ratings put it on 29.9%, the centre left Democratic Party (PD) on 31%
and the centre-right parties on 28.3%. It does not seem to have suffered
from outcries surrounding a number of controversial
appointments by its recently elected mayor of Rome. Or allegations that
activists have been involved in falsifying signatures on the nomination
papers of candidates for elections in Bologna and Palermo. These
incidents seem to fly in the face of its claim to
stand for a new, more honest politics. But people vote for the M5s
simply because it represents something different from a political class
in whom vast swathes have virtually no confidence.

Since it
draws support from all parts of the political spectrum, the fear is that
in a run-off ballot it would sweep the board. For it would inevitably
attract votes from two sources: its own supporters
and those opposed to whichever of the parties, the PD or the centre
right, it found itself up against.

But the
electoral law might not survive in its current form. If Renzi loses,
then the electoral law will have to be revised and the prospect of an
M5s majority government will retreat accordingly. For
the law’s operability depends on the constitutional reforms being passed
and it is opposed by powerful groups from across the political
spectrum. But even if Renzi wins, the law might still not survive in its
current form. On 21 September, Renzi was forced
to bow to pressure to support a parliamentary motion declaring a
willingness to revisit it. Moreover, the law has been challenged before
the Constitutional Court which is expected to deliver its verdict
shortly after the referendum.

The profile
of M5s activists and supporters casts doubt on whether it would be able
to govern effectively. A vote for the M5s is a straightforward protest
vote. Otherwise its activists and supporters
are divided across the whole range of issues separating left and right.
It is doubtful that such a party can remain cohesive when faced with the
pressures of governing. With responsibility for making choices that can
only benefit some while hurting others.

And its
experience both in Parliament and in local government confirms that
protest parties railing against ‘the system’ are as likely to find
themselves being absorbed by it as they are to transform
it once they experience the pressures of office. To become a party just
like all the others. For example, Italian parliamentarians are notorious
for jumping from one group to another during the course of a
legislature. Currently, no fewer than 154 (or 24%)
of the members of the Chamber of Deputies belong to a different group to
the one they were a member of at the start of the legislature. Not
surprisingly, then, the M5s now has 18 (or 17%) fewer members than the
109 Deputies it elected in 2013.

Many of the
defectors have left because they came into conflict with pressures to
behave as mere party delegates – pressures created by the new ideology
of direct, ‘bottom-up’, democracy espoused by
Grillo. And ironically, he has sought to impose this discipline from the
top down – by the threat to withdraw from potential and actual rebels
all entitlements to use the Movement’s brand, of which he is the
exclusive owner.

So even if
the M5s found itself in office after an election some time in 2017 or
2018, it would find itself uniquely badly placed to withstand the
enormous threats to its unity that would derive from
the market pressures, including capital flight and economic turmoil, its
promise of a euro referendum would presumably bring.

And even if
it were able to withstand such pressures, it might then find it
difficult, if not impossible to hold such a referendum in the first
place. For one thing, the Constitution prohibits the holding
of referenda on laws authorising the ratification of international
treaties, and the jurisprudence that has developed over the years has
extended the prohibition to the laws that give effect to such treaties.

So in order
to hold a euro-membership referendum it would probably first be
necessary to secure a revision of the Constitution, and for that to be
possible, it would be necessary to win two positive
votes in each chamber of Parliament at intervals of not less than three
months. With the constitutional reforms being proposed by Renzi, the
obstacles in the way of achieving this might be greater than they would
be currently. For hitherto, or at least until
the change in the electoral law in 2005, the two bodies have tended to
have very similar if not identical political majorities. With the
changes being proposed by Renzi, these majorities would more than likely
diverge.

But there is
more. The support of less than two thirds of the members of each chamber
in the second vote would make it possible for a fifth of the members of
each chamber, or 500,000 electors or five
regional councils to subject the proposed constitutional amendment to a
confirmatory referendum.

So there
might have to be two referenda before an exit from the euro could take
place. And then, of course, the referenda would have to be won. In order
to achieve that, the M5s would have to overcome
their current uncertainty about what they would replace euro membership with. And they would have to find a way of persuading the 67% of respondents who currently say they favour continued membership.

Of course we live in
rapidly changing times. But if forced to place a bet on it, I would put
my money on there not being a euro exit any time soon – or at least not
one engineered by the M5s.