Saturday, November 15, 2008

Well, that's pretty awful. I lived next to the hill that got destroyed by the 1993 Laguna fire, though it was basically rebuilt by the time I got there. Every few months they'd send some goats out to eat up all the brush.

7 Appearances by Republican current elected officeholders3 Appearances by Democratic current elected officeholders.2 Appearances by Republican former elected officeholders.1 Appearance by a Bush Cabinet Secretary.T. Boone PickensTed Turner.

I don't think McCain lost because he wasn't conservative enough, but I do think the fact that he was all over the place on every issue didn't help him. He didn't need to be "more conservative" but "more consistent."

Like Booman, I was pleased that I wasn't familiar with a lot of names on Obama's transition team. My unfamiliarity doesn't necessarily tell me much about them, but I think a benefit of an Obama versus a Clinton administration is that there will at least be some new blood in town. Not saying everyone he hires or should hire will be Washington outsiders, but we'll at least see a reshuffling of the Washington deck a bit. I'm sure we'll be seeing plenty of former Clintonites in power, but they won't all be the same Clintonites we've been seeing all these years, if that makes sense.

ABC News' Rick Klein Reports: A conservative California congressman announced Friday that he's mounting a leadership challenge to House Minority Leader John Boehner, as the GOP continues to assess the fallout from last week’s election losses.

Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Calif., becomes the first rank-and-file House member to announce his intent to challenge the top House Republican in next week’s leadership elections. The No. 2 and No. 3 House Republicans have said they’re stepping down from their posts, but Boehner is seeking another term as minority leader.

The retail sales figures added to my pessimism about the economy. I expected a big consumer pullback in '03, but it never materialized. People have forgotten, but things seemed pretty bleak then. Unemployment was hovering around 6% - not super high, but worrying - and I figured that consumers pulling back would break the back of the economy. Consumers didn't do that, presumably because they were happily using their homes as ATMs, and the economy rebounded, if a bit anemically, propelled by the housing boom.

Most of it is even more useless than campaign horse race journalism. If they must do it they could at least provide more useful information about the people they're speculating about, but instead it's all just a soap opera.

I think there's a place in our political discourse for hacks, though it isn't entirely clear that newspapers should grant them additional authority by giving them space on their opinion pages. I mean, newspapers can do whatever they want, but it tends to go against their generally professed norms.

I'm pessimistic because I worry that with Bush in office nothing sensible can be done quickly enough, and side debates about the auto companies provide a distraction (it may be an important debate, but it isn't central to the question of immediate stimulus). Last Spring we did the shitty stimulus of giving people a few bucks, which unsurprisingly didn't cause the pony to appear. We need extension of unemployment benefits, food stamp increases, SUPERTRAIN and other infrastructure expenditures, and of course aid for state and local governments. And it's needed, you know, yesterday.

The economic news, in case you haven’t noticed, keeps getting worse. Bad as it is, however, I don’t expect another Great Depression. In fact, we probably won’t see the unemployment rate match its post-Depression peak of 10.7 percent, reached in 1982 (although I wish I was sure about that).

I'm actually more worried than I was. Appropriate federal intervention - not bailing out Hank's buddies - is necessary and hasn't been forthcoming. State and local governments are going to be cutting budgets and laying off people without help.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

I think people who are good (if they are good) at this type of thing have genuine talent, but I just don't think editors should see campaign journalism as theater/food criticism. Good critics of this type can be good at explaining certain types of things, but those types of things really aren't what should be the central elements of political reporting. A small part of it, sure, but not the primary part.

I'm so old I can remember when Camille Paglia's peculiar form of wingnuttery actually seeped its way into the broader discourse. Fortunately it really isn't the case anymore. Keep smacking your readers in the face, Salon.

When I first turned on the teevee this morning, there she was, talking to me. I could understand the media fascination with her a bit more if there weren't numerous other shiny soccer balls they could be chasing.

But to have been so completely and fundamentally wrong about so huge a disaster as what we have done to Iraq — and ourselves — is outrageous enough to prove that people like me have no business posing as wise men, and, more importantly, that The New York Times has no business continuing to provide me with a national platform.

In any case, I have made a decision: as of today, I will no longer write in this or any other newspaper. I will immediately desist from writing any more books about how it’s time for everyone to climb on board the globalization high-speed monorail to the future. I will keep my opinions to myself. (My wife suggested that I try not to even form opinions, but I think she might have another agenda.)

I think it's important to keep in mind the fact that this looming economic disaster was preventable. The Wise Old Men of Washington and Wall Street have fucked everything up due to a combination of greed and and adherence to ideology regardless of what the facts are. There were many moments in the past few years when something could have been done to at least minimize the problems, and at every step they've done the wrong thing.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, the Labor Department reported on Thursday.

...

Continuing claims reached 3.897 million for the week ended Nov. 1, the latest period for which the data was available, which was an increase from 3.832 million the prior week and marked the most people filing for ongoing unemployment assistance in a quarter of a century. Continuing claims were 3.95 million in the week ended Jan. 15, 1983.

A seven-page questionnaire being sent by the office of President-elect Barack Obama to those seeking cabinet and other high-ranking posts may be the most extensive — some say invasive — application ever.
The questionnaire includes 63 requests for personal and professional records, some covering applicants’ spouses and grown children as well, that are forcing job-seekers to rummage from basements to attics, in shoe boxes, diaries and computer archives to document both their achievements and missteps.
Only the smallest details are excluded; traffic tickets carrying fines of less than $50 need not be reported, the application says. Applicants are asked whether they or anyone in their family owns a gun. They must include any e-mail that might embarrass the president-elect, along with any blog posts and links to their Facebook pages.

I don't know for sure that just letting GM filing for bankruptcy is the best route, but if it isn't then it just means there's something wrong with our bankruptcy laws and/or our dealings with "too big to fail" companies.

But not everyone agrees that a Chapter 11 filing by G.M. would be the disaster that many fear. Some experts note that while bankruptcy would be painful, it may be preferable to a government bailout that may only delay, at considerable cost, the wrenching but necessary steps G.M. needs to take to become a stronger, leaner company.

Although G.M.’s labor contracts would be at risk of termination in a bankruptcy, setting up a potential confrontation with its unions, the company says its pension obligations are largely financed for its 479,000 retirees and their spouses.

The system needs to have standard ways of dealing with these things. If the ones in place don't work, we need new ones, not free money for failures.

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. said the U.S. government agreed to insure as much as $139 billion in debt for lending arm GE Capital Corp., the second time in a month it has turned to a federal program designed to help companies during a global credit crunch.

Granting GE Capital, which isn’t a bank, access to a new Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. program may reassure investors and help the unit compete with banks that already have government protection behind their debt, said Russell Wilkerson, a spokesman for the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company. Coverage would be for about $139 billion, or 125 percent of total senior unsecured debt outstanding as of Sept. 30 and maturing by June 30.

An Iraqi soldier has shot dead four U.S. soldiers and wounded three others while out on patrol in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, according to the Iraqi Interior Ministry.

An Interior Ministry source told ABC News, on condition of anonymity, that an argument broke out between the Iraqi soldier, Barazen Mohammed, and an American colleague while they were on a joint patrol in western Mosul.

Of course they don't, but I think one thing missing from this conversation is that a lot of people on "our side" have been invested in this idea for awhile. Losing means failure, and failure is an opportunity to try to push the party in whatever direction you imagine it should be pushed. I was in a couple of meetings in Washington with various groups of people after the 2006 election where variations of that phrase kept popping out of peoples' mouths like a habitual tic, even though the Democrats had just, you know, won.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

As stupid and horrible as it is that this is even an issue, I admit we've gone a bit farther a bit faster than I expected. Proph H8 is a setback, but one way or another it'll be overturned fairly soon.

If, say, a left of center magazine or some other Washington institution wanted to engage in a bit of class-based affirmative action, I have a fairly simple suggestion. Just make sure you reach out beyond elite schools. I've attended and taught at a variety of institutions, and some excellent students can be found most places. And while I don't know the hiring practices of random left of center magazines, or for Congressional staffs, or for the Washington Post, it wouldn't surprise me if first round resume weeding is frequently done based on the college the applicants attended.

Good plan to raise parking meter rates in Center City Philadelphia. At $1/hr they're absurdly low. Though I think raising the fine parking at an expired meter to $56 is a bit excessively punitive. Somehow misread $35 as $56. Simels regrets the error.

There is a weird underplaying of the degree of Democratic victory this time. Sure, they didn't win quite as many seats as some pollsters and pundits predicted, but even at the height of the Great And Glorious Republican Revolution, back when Democrats were doomed to irrelevancy for generations, they maxed out at just 232 House seats. Dems have about 256 at the moment, with a couple of races not yet decided.

Any plan to reduce mortgage interest rates/principals for people struggling pay them is somewhat problematic, as it does provide an incentive for people to get behind so they can get a better deal. Still, the reason to do it is that foreclosures are costly for both parties, they inflict large negative externalities on neighborhoods, and many homes are underwater so those who own the mortgages wouldn't be able to get more money back on foreclosure sales anyway. This way, maybe people get to stay in their homes and Freddie and Fannie have a chance to get their money without going through costly foreclosure proceedings/sales.

To clarify, I didn't mean to suggest that one should never ever have a political discussion with someone who disagrees with you. The context is blogs and political discourse and the contemporary conservative movement, whatever the hell that is.

Is the Fairness Doctrine. I know there are some on the left who support it. I don't for various reasons. But Obama doesn't support it. There's no serious movement in Congress to reinstate it. It isn't part of the current list of priorities of the Vast Left Conspiracy. But wingnuts will obsess, because they're very silly people. Actually, some obsess about it because they're very stupid people. And some obsess about it because they think it's political useful to do so even though they know it's bullshit. Not worth my time trying to distinguish between the groups.

Well, maybe not shorter, but since I guess there might be a bit of confusion let me clarify. One cannot ignore wingnuttery, but we long ago realized that there is no reason to engage it seriously. That's why we mock it and treat it with the contempt it deserves. This was true a week ago, and it's still true today. I don't know why smart people felt like they should engage with it seriously a week ago, but nor should those same people feel like they can just ignore it now.

Often one has to engage with specific bits of horseshit that bubble up into the mainstream to correct errors of fact and logic, but wingnuts? Just point and laugh. They weren't trying to have a "serious good faith debate" last week, and they aren't this week. But they're still there.

Since the Lewinsky scandal broke, and to a lesser degree since the start of the Gingrich era, the Republicans have basically been able to set the terms of the debate and pick the conversation of the day, except when actual events overwhelm them. They don't always win the debate, but they always have been able to decide what cable news and similar should talk about on any given day.

I find myself to be really not in the mood to nitpick every move and personnel decision Obama makes. Ultimately the policies and results matter, not the aesthetics of every move and nature of every hire.

I'm not saying that those things are of no importance, but I've been rolling my eyes at all the "WHAT OBAMA NEEDS TO DO" editorials and discussions on the teevee. Sometimes I roll my eyes over the substance ("govern from the center!"), but often I'm rolling my eyes over the fact that they're doing it at all.

Not saying this is a criticism-free zone, just that there's still a bit of time before the guy actually starts doing stuff.

(CNN) -- A southern Ohio community is bracing for possible layoffs as DHL Express -- the largest employer in the area -- planned to announce its quarterly earnings report and restructuring details.

DHL's parent company, German-based Deutsche Post World Net, will announce plans for its U.S. operations to investors Monday, said spokesman Jonathan Baker. He did not respond to published reports that Deutsche Post has ordered roughly 8,000 layoffs at DHL's Wilmington hub.

As someone frequently criticized for being a foul-mouthed blogger, I've long been amused by the faux public "manners" of our Village elite. I don't spend much time in DC, but people there... swear. I've had senators who I just met swear in front of me. House members too. Journalists also. This is perfectly normal, it goes on all the time, and the members of Joe Scarborough's Morning Zoo are perfectly aware of it.

Matt's right that relatively inexpensive marginal improvements to a bus system which encourage greater ridership are worth focusing on. Too much of the transit focus in this country has been on mass transit as substitute for automobile commute rather than as a general way of getting around. Commuters are regular users who understand the route that they use. But a system which car free people use to get around generally would be greatly enhanced by better information.

Our local transit authority does very strange things. In the busiest part of the downtown area, bus shelters do actually have some maps and route/frequency information. But the maps are screwy. If you're facing North, the maps have North on top as maps normally do. If you're facing South, the maps have South on top. I'm sure some genius thought this was very clever, but for normal people it's very disorienting.

The petition for Chapter 11 protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Richmond, Virginia, listed $3.4 billion in assets and $2.32 billion in liabilities. The company said it is entering court protection owing Hewlett-Packard Co. $119 million and Samsung Electronics Co. $116 million.

I've had a hard time thinking about just what a president Obama might do with the campaign web operation. It is a paradigm changing thing, potentially.

CHICAGO -- Armed with millions of e-mail addresses and a political operation that harnessed the Internet like no campaign before it, Barack Obama will enter the White House with the opportunity to create the first truly "wired" presidency.

Obama aides and allies are preparing a major expansion of the White House communications operation, enabling them to reach out directly to the supporters they have collected over 21 months without having to go through the mainstream media.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

The Bush administration was overhauling its rescue of the American International Group on Sunday night, according to people involved in the transaction, amid signs that the interest on its initial credit line of more than $100 billion was putting too much strain on the ailing insurance giant.

The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve were near a deal to invest another $40 billion into the company, these people said, as part of a huge restructuring of A.I.G.’s debt. The government made an $85 billion emergency line of credit available in September to keep it from toppling and added $38 billion in early October when it became clear that the original amount was not enough.

The restructuring of the deal, which may be announced as early as Monday morning, is just one sign of the intense debate in Washington over how and when the government should be bailing out private companies. The money would come from the $700 billion that Congress authorized the Treasury to use to shore up financial companies. Just this weekend, Democratic leaders in Congress called on the Bush administration to use some of that money to rescue Detroit automakers.

When the restructured deal is complete, taxpayers will have invested and lent a total of $150 billion to A.I.G., the most the government has ever directed to a single private enterprise. It is a stark reversal of the government’s assurance that its previous moves had stemmed the bleeding at A.I.G.

"Obama!" Bush exclaimed, according to Obama's account of the meeting in his second memoir, "The Audacity of Hope." "Come here and meet Laura. Laura, you remember Obama. We saw him on TV during election night. Beautiful family. And that wife of yours -- that's one impressive lady."

The two men shook hands and then, according to Obama, Bush turned to an aide, "who squirted a big dollop of hand sanitizer in the president's hand."

Bush then offered some to Obama, who recalled: "Not wanting to seem unhygienic, I took a squirt."