This awards season keeps throwing us unpleasant curveballs. First Bohemian Rhapsody took the top prize at the Globes and now, the Director's Guild of America has decided to up and agree with the Globes exactly on the Best Director list.

Their nominations and statistical hand-wringing after the jump...

BEST DIRECTOR, DGA

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (double nominated this year - also for first time director)

Peter Farrelly, Greenbook

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice (double nominated this year - also for tv work)

We don't understand what Peter Farrelly and Adam McKay are doing in there. Even if you love Green Book it isn't a directorial feat in any traditional sense like so many movies selected for this honor are. Vice is tonally all over the place and has relatively poor reviews, things that would normally doom a director in the Oscar race. The only solace we're taking in this nomination lineup is that Oscar's directing branch is (generally speaking) slightly more sophisticated than the wider voting membership of the DGA. If this year's Oscar lineup follows statistical tradition it will include 4 but not 5 of these men. But there's a few other mitigating factors to consider.

- Oscar's lineup generally differs from the Globe lineup even more than it differs from the DGAs (sometimes as few as 2 people transfer like last year!) . But since the DGA & Globes match this year what does that mean?

- Bradley Cooper could be a surprise exclusion, especially if the Directors resist him muscling in on their territory. They've done that before you know (see Ben Affleck in Argo). We confess: if a snub here would guarantee him the Best Actor prize we'd be all for that snub to happen! Otherwise that's just mean! It's one of the definitive films of the year and he wrote, directed, produced and starred in it, and did his best acting ever!

- You can't vote AGAINST a movie when nominating people so helming a divisive film doesn't necessarily harm you; you only need the passionate fans to rally... which one assumes is how Vice and Green Book (both generally divisive) still made it in there.

- Part of the problem in more traditional "auteurs" showing up to replace anyone on this list this year is that the votes are undoubtedly spread out, as is opinion. We've found over our long years of Oscar-watching that the better a film year is the more likely you are to end up with mediocre nominees. It's almost as if, if you give people too many brilliant choices, they all glom on to easiest films from indecision or no momentum for any one piece of brilliance given all the other remarkable choices.

- There's always the chance that the directors branch within the Academy will throw a real curveball this year like they did in 2012 when the DGA and Oscar list were MUCH different and perceived frontrunning films were shoved aside. The DGAs nominated Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) and Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) but the Academy chucked all of them for Austria's master Michael Haneke (Amour), newcomer Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), and then hot David O. Russell (Silver Lining's Playbook). The only transfers were two previous Oscar & DGA winners Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and Steven Spielberg (Lincoln). If we have a year like that again in Best Director all bets are off as to who falls though in this scenario I guess we could expect Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) to be the holdovers since they're the closest thing to legends among this lineup like Lee & Spielberg were.

Yorgos Lanthimos

- It's impossible to know if the Directors branch is feeling restless this year but if they are there are so many alternate possibilities, chief among them: Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Debra Granik (Leave No Trace), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). If Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) couldn't make it to the nominations from the more populist leaning DGA he doesn't have a clear shot at an Oscar nomination.

- But with opinions so widespread about the more arthouse-leaning fare this year, that might be good news for Farrelly and McKay. Aside from arguably Lanthimos and maybe Granik do any of the others have anything like momentum in the conversation at this point?

I really hope the directors branch remember of the towering female work of this year and nominated someone between Debra Granik, Chloe Zhao and Lynne Ramsay. In a serious year, we would have three girls and two boys nominated.

With Roma in there, I worry our art-house spot is all filled up. I remember when they nominated Haneke for a beloved foreign film that appeals to the emotions, but this year we already have that with Roma. I doubt they'll give another nomination to something like Shoplifters or Cold War, even though they should.

The few reasonable ones I see sneaking in are Granik or Yorgos. Remember last year when the Oscars decided they loved Phantom Thread more than the other nominations, or that year Bennett Miller snuck in for Foxcatcher? Something like that may happen here.

But then again directors like Farrelly are always nominated. Remember Imitation Game?

Don't know that McKay is a lock but I do think Farrelly (who does a good job in a very good film) is gonna miss. In fact, I think his GG speech hurts him. He said nice things but nothing a 4th grader can't say, yet he had to cut off the band to continue reading it from a sheet. His kids didn't help matters.

Still funny that Green Book is divisive. Rather than having split opinions, people are rallying against "its racial politics" as if they know what the fuck that means -and yeah, THAT criticism bothers me as both a movie lover, and a to the left, non-idiot.

I've been thinking miss for Cooper a little while. Affleck as a precedent kinda helps him, as I don't think people will look back and WANT to do that again. Affleck had already directed two good films tho, with both getting good reviews, making some money, as well as getting respect from online communities, plus each with a nomination for a supporting actor (woman and man).

But Affleck is not as respected as Cooper. Affleck is not a great actor, and a lot of people think he's not good. Cooper has gotten better and better over the years, with his past directors getting in his corner. And Affleck already had an Oscar, and acknowledges that Damon did the bulk of the writer.

But of course Affleck wasn't locked for an acting nod. I feel for Cooper, cuz he does very well despite the direction of the screenplay. But he has a chance at winning as an actor, so I think he misses.

Maybe a woman sneaks in? So many of this year's best films have been directed by women...Lynne Ramsey, please!

Ramsay did a superb job with You Were Never Really Here, but that film has no traction--Phoenix isn't even really in the Best Actor conversation, which is wild. I really hope Lanthimos gets in, but I kind of doubt it.

I think Cooper has a lot more going for him than Affleck did. He's a superior actor and the Academy clearly agrees (three Oscar nods for his acting, with a fourth nod on the way). ASIB also seems to be a film that has more passionate fans than Argo did. I never actually saw Argo, so I can't comment on its quality ...

Also, I don't know that the Academy is necessarily suddenly biased against actors-turned-directors, or directors-better-known-for-being-actors. Greta Gerwig was nominated last year, and Mel Gibson of all people managed a Best Director nod just two years ago.

The lack of love for First Man (from both the public and all the critics circles and guilds) just makes me sad this year. I know it’s partly because Chazelle was previously honored, but I think First Man is his best work yet.

I definitely think that blowhard McKay is more "locked" than windbag Farrelly, but my no-guts-no-glory prediction is that Lanthimos and possibly even Granik get in over either/or. Please, God, let it be so.

They didn't nominate Bryan Singer. That's the silver lining here (I was actually having nightmares about the possibility of that happening). Otherwise, this is the list I was expecting here (though I am expecting at least one of these guys to get bumped out at the Oscars)...

Interesting. COLD WAR is not a great film and I'm perfectly happy to see it left out of all nominations, including Best Foreign Film. Yes, the cinematography was lovely but not any more so than a bunch of other films. This is the big boring foreign film of the year I don't get and resent critics for raving so.

But leaving out Lanthimos seems stupid - although the film wasn't as wonderful as I had hoped it would be - again, I have GOT to stop reading reviews before seeing something! - it is a unique and impressive achievement in pretty much every way.

I agree about Farrelly - he certainly directed a crowd pleaser and there is real skill and experience required to do that - but not to the level of top 5 of the year. Even without seeing BEALE STREET, I've got to believe Mr. Jenkiins is more deserving of a nomination.

And I have yet to see VICE so I can't really comment but, personally, I would go for Lynne Ramsay over Debra Granik or Coogler.

@JHR: I don't think it's as much because he was previously honored as much as because his previous film was so beloved for being a splashy, mainstream, fun thing. Whereas First Man is so nuanced and slow-moving. It's not everyone's cup of tea.

McKay is ahead of Farrelly because, as you said, there is nothing going on in the Green Book filmmaking, while at least Vice has a point of view and style. Whether it works or not is of course open for debate.

Also, McKay has gotten the Directors Branch seal of approval before with the Big Short nomination, so he's on their radar as an acceptable nominee. Farrelly hasn't proven he's earned that respect from them yet.

I think there’s always been journeyman directors that aren’t flashy getting in both the DGA and Oscar lineup. (Morten Tyldum) I bet the overall support for Green Book gets it in with the Academy, but the more European side of the directors Branch goes with Lanthimos.

I am totally against tokenism/affirmative action in awards. So when I say I would have liked to have seen Chloe Zhao (The Rider) and Debra Granik (Leave No Trace) be nominated it's because I think they are the best directors of the year. Period. Also Rungano Nyoni (I Am Not a Witch) would be a better first-time nominee than the 3 first-timers I've seen so far.

I'm quite surprised that the DGAs match the Globes exactly, but I also find that on Oscar nomination mornig it's been the Director's branch that has sprung the biggest surprises in recent years (2012 of course, but also Bennett Miller in 2014, Lenny Abrahamson in 2015 and Paul Thomas Anderson last year), so maybe Oscar won't line up exactly this year either? I'm still holding out hope for Paul Schrader (though I'll be equally happy if he gets an Original Screenplay nod) but I think the more likely surprise is Yorgos Lanthimos, Debra Granik or Damien Chazelle.

Do The Right Thing wasn't eligible at either the Writer's or Director's Guilds, tho no nods for either Malcolm X.

Garwig and Gibson did not direct themselves in their movies, and Cooper did everything in his (plus a favorite to win). Was also a good time to honor a woman. And Gibson was on a comeback tour and, despite his status, has never been nominated as an actor. Plus, he has directed multiple films, over a 20 year directing career.

Anyway, I don't assume he'll be rejected, but I could see them spreading it around.

How is VICE "tonally all over the place?" You have to admit that, whether he's to your taste or not, McKay is an audacious, uncompromising director and his vision is plainly evident in every frame. I'm frankly glad we've got guys like him willing to take the kind of bold risks he does even if they don't always pay off.

Farrelly and McKay are both lousy directors, but I think this list is likely to transfer exactly to Oscar. When in doubt, I always assume the nominations will suck, and I think they mostly will this year.

Lanthimos is the only interesting director apart from Cuarón and Spike who has more than a tiny prayer. I’d love to see it happen for Coogler (who richly deserves it), Granik, Jenkins, Pawlikowski, or (especially) Schrader or Kore-eda, but it won’t. Ramsay has even less of a prayer than the rest – until and unless she makes a film as accessible as Amour, it’ll never happen for her, and even then it likely won’t because sexism.

I looked up the rest of the Best Director Oscar nominees in my lifetime, and as much as I respect Cuarón, I maintain that if not for Spike, this would make the worst list since the 5/5 Picture/Director matchup in 2008.

Green Book is a bit too gooey. Seems to go overboard with the one-sided Italian meatball eating stereotype. Could really appreciate it more if they didn’t commit blatant category fraud by putting Mahersala Ali in the Supporting category. Though the Director of Driving Ms. Daisy was famously snubbed, I feel that Farrelly might not make the cut because he isn’t considered ‘serious’ enough...