US election 2016: voters head to polls as Trump and Clinton aim to make history – live

That’s up from a 65% chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5% from 2.9%.

As a lot of you noticed, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida flipped from red to blue over the course of Monday. We don’t think that’s a particularly meaningful metric, because the forecasts are probabilistic — Clinton’s chances of winning Florida increased to 54% from 48%, for instance, which is nontrivial but not an especially large change. Still, we know it’s something a lot of readers follow. It’s unlikely that any further states will flip to Clinton in our final forecast, as she’s too far behind in Ohio, the next-closest state. It’s possible that Florida and North Carolina could flip back to Trump by tomorrow morning, though probably not Nevada, where Clinton’s lead is a bit larger.

Few suspects spared a mention in Jonathan Freedland’s hall of shame. They include the other Republican presidential candidates such as Jeb Bush, Marco and Ted Cruz who “allowed themselves to be streamrollered by a reality TV host and serially bankrupted businessman”. But also “Trump’s trio of enablers: Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich.”

Those three horsemen of the Republican apocalypse conspired in the lie that a snake-oil salesman was fit to be president – and destroyed what remained of their reputations in the process.

Plus Trump’s running mate Mike Pence: “the defender of family values who has served as the running mate of a thrice-married, serially adulterous, self-confessed grabber of women.”

Freedland also rounds on the “indulgence on a epic scale” of the media. And there are cameos for Julian Assange and Vladimir Putin.

And finally there’s a dig at the US electorate:

Some blame surely attaches to the Americans who let Trump keep up the bullying and the bigotry and voted for him anyway. There is no escaping the fact that north of 40% of the US electorate have been prepared to vote for Trump despite everything that he has said and done. One poll found 22% of Trump’s own supporters believed he would start a nuclear war. They thought that, but were prepared to vote for him anyway. None of them will be able to say: “We didn’t know.”

Speaking to a packed crowd in a community college gymnasium in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Trump outlined his closing message that “this election will decide whether we are ruled by a corrupt political class or by yourselves, the people”.

(Some) votes counted

Election day has been and gone for three small towns in New Hampshire, which – thanks to the quirks of the electoral system – count their votes as soon as the clock strikes midnight. If anyone still uses striking clocks any more.

The turnouts weren’t huge numbers-wise, but then again, nor are the populations.