‘Avatar’ off to a good start

Zoe Saldana is the voice of Neytiri in “Avatar,” which looks ready to follow in “Titanic’s” footsteps in terms of box-office and critical success.

It’s not wise to fool with Mother Nature. And it’s also not wise to doubt James Cameron. Based on the first wave of “Avatar” reviews pouring in after its world premiere last Thursday in London, Cameron is well on his way to silencing the skeptics that same way he did with “Titanic” in 1997.

Like “Titanic,” “Avatar” had the dreaded troubled-project buzz circling it like a pack of hungry buzzards. “Titanic,” plagued by delays and cost overruns that pushed its price tag to a then-record $200 million and saddled with a three-hour running time that limited how often it could be shown per day, was thought by some analysts as a candidate to join the Flop Hall of Fame next to “Heaven’s Gate,” “Waterworld” and “Cleopatra.”

When “Titanic” earned a relatively modest $30 million when it opened the weekend before Christmas, it looked like the predictions might come true. Instead, unlike the luxury liner, the movie became unsinkable, dominating the box office like no other film has since. It wasn’t until March that it was knocked off the No.1 spot, and it went on to earn a record $600 million.

(Associated Press)

Director James Cameron and his wife, actress Suzy Amis, attend last Thursday’s “Avatar” premiere in London.

Good reviews didn’t hurt. And neither did a double Oscar bump  it was nominated for 14 Oscars, which gave it another boost when they were announced, and won 11, which provided still another after Cameron’s “I’m the king of the world!” moment during the telecast.

If anything, “Avatar” seems primed for a faster start. Cameron’s fantasy adventure, his first movie since “Titanic,” has already posted an 85 score on the Tomatometer, with 64 positive and only 11 negative reviews. Roger Ebert has already given it four stars and said it rests on a plane above your typical great movie. “It is an Event, one of those films you feel you must see to keep up with the conversation,” he wrote.

Given that the marketing budget alone (estimated at $150 million) used to be considered enough to make a couple of blockbuster movies, “Avatar” had better get off to a better start than “Titanic.” A $30 million opening weekend would probably considered disastrous.

One analyst, Philadelphia-based Tony Wible, told Bloomberg News that “Avatar” needed to make $217 million in the U.S. and Canada alone just to break even. He expects it make roughly double that, though.

And this week’s four Golden Globe nominations, including picture and director, also bodes well for Oscar time.

A few other notes:

 Cameron must consider the weekend before Christmas his good-luck charm. Actually there’s more to it than blind luck. One of the reasons “Titanic” dominated the box office for so long was the lack of competition. January and February are movie wastelands  a dumping ground for films the studios want to be rid of. Consequently, there was nothing remotely resembling a movie iceberg for “Titanic” to collide with.

“Avatar” looks to be set up as well. There doesn’t seem to be anything blocking its path to box-office domination. December’s other mainstream releases don’t look like much competition. “Sherlock Holmes” should do well thanks to Robert Downey Jr. in the title role, and lots of poor parents will no doubtedly be dragged to “Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” (remember: resistance is never futile). There’s also the romantic comedy “Did You Hear About the Morgans?,” which has no Tomatometer score yet, but the first reviews I’ve seen have not been kind.

 As expected, “Avatar” screenings will start a minute after midnight Thursday night in most San Antonio multiplexes, both in 3D and regular 2D. The 3D version appears to be where Cameron has again applied his Midas touch. No fan of 3D, Ebert wrote:

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CCH Pounder.

I’m a notorious skeptic about this process, a needless distraction from the perfect realism of movies in 2-D. Cameron’s iteration is the best I’ve seen  and more important, one of the most carefully employed. The film never uses 3-D simply because it has it, and doesn’t promiscuously violate the fourth wall. He also seems quite aware of 3-D’s weakness for dimming the picture, and even with a film set largely in interiors and a rain forest, there’s sufficient light.

I saw the film in 3-D on a good screen and was impressed. It might be awesome in true IMAX. Good luck in getting a ticket before February.

 One of my favorite names popped up in the “Avatar” cast. CCH Pounder sounds like some sort of specialty tool, but it’s actually the name of an actress noted more for TV roles such as “ER” (she got an Emmy nomination in 1994) and “The Shield” and a bunch of made-for-TV movies. Pounder, who plays Moat in “Avatar,” was born in Guyana on Christmas Day 1952. The CCH stands for Carol Christine Hilaria. “Avatar” is her first role in a major movie since 1999’s “End of Days.”