Golden Globes 2016 Predictions: Who Will Win?

If you’re making bets on who’ll win at the Golden Globes, smart money favors the underdog. (Last year, Mozart in the Jungle’s win for best comedy and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’s Rachel Bloom for comedy actress upset many an office pool.) Once again, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association singles out plenty of newcomers, which should make for an unpredictable night (Sunday, Jan. 8, 8/7c, NBC). Here’s how we hope the categories play out.

Alex Bailey/Netflix

Best Drama

Four new series—Netflix’s The Crown and Stranger Things, NBC’s This Is Us and HBO’s Westworld—are up against HBO powerhouse Game of Thrones, which, amazingly, has never won. (Last year’s winner, Mr. Robot, didn’t even make the cut.)

The royally entertaining Crown would be the first Netflix original to take home a best-series award and seems more fitting for this international group. I’d also cheer if This Is Us scored an upset. A broadcast series hasn’t won for best drama since Grey’s Anatomy 10 years ago.

Who Will Win: The Crown

Quantrell Colbert/FX

Best Comedy

FX’s Atlanta and ABC’s black-ish are new to the category and add welcome diversity. The buzz over the genre-busting Atlanta is strong enough to carry it to a dark-horse victory over past winnersMozart in the Jungle and Transparent (both Amazon), but HBO's Emmy darling Veep has yet to win, and after this turbulent election year could reign supreme.

Who Will Win:Atlanta

Michael Parmelee/USA Network

Best Actor in a Drama

In a category of almost-achievers—only Goliath’s Billy Bob Thornton has won before (for Fargo)—Mr. Robot’s mesmerizing Rami Malek seems the likeliest to triumph, even though the field also includes Matthew Rhys’s underappreciated genius in The Americans, Liev Schreiber for Ray Donovan and Better Call Saul’s Bob Odenkirk.

Who Will Win: Rami Malek

HBO

Best Actress in a Comedy

Shockingly, Veep's Julia Louis-Dreyfus has never won at the Globes for a role that has reaped her four consecutive Emmys. Is this her year?

Her competition includes the two most recent winners from the CW fringe—Jane the Virgin's Gina Rodriguez and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend's Rachel Bloom—a past Globes fave (Divorce's Sarah Jessica Parker, who won four times for Sex and the City), black-ish's Tracee Ellis Ross, and this year's discovery, Insecure's dazzling Issa Rae, who seems the perfect Cinderella to reward. (If the voters succumb to the lure of celebrity, though—think Lady Gaga's win for American Horror Story: Hotel last year—it might be a fifth for Parker for the dismal Divorce.)

Who Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Ray Mickshaw/FX

Best Limited Series/TV Movie

The sweep is likely to continue for FX’s riveting docudrama The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story—not to be confused with ABC’s powerfully moving and timely American Crime, the other best choice in an unusually robust field including Starz’s The Dresser, AMC’s The Night Manager and HBO’s The Night Of.

Who Will Win: The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Ali Goldstein/FX

Best Actress in a Drama

Remember Keri Russell’s surprise 1999 win for Felicity? Let’s see her do it again, now that she finally has been nominated for her amazing work in The Americans. But she’ll have to beat The Crown’s majestic Claire Foy, which is a very tall order in a strong category also featuring Outlander’s Caitriona Balfe, Stranger Things’ Winona Ryder and Westworld’s Evan Rachel Wood.

Best Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie

Make way for Sarah Paulson to add a Globe to a shelf that already includes an Emmy, a Television Critics Association and a Critics’ Choice award for her uncanny channeling of O.J. prosecutor Marcia Clark.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This bizarre grab-bag category typically pits actors in drama and comedy series against costars of limited series and TV movies, which often seems like an uneven playing field. (No supporting comedy actors or actresses were nominated this year.)

It’s hard to imagine anyone upstaging John Lithgow’s magnificently prickly and poignant Winston Churchill from The Crown, including last year’s winner, Mr. Robot’s Christian Slater. Sterling K. Brown nabbed an Emmy as O.J.’s Christopher Darden, so he shouldn’t be counted out amid such peers as The Night Manager’s Hugh Laurie and O.J.’s John Travolta.

Who Will Win: John Lithgow

HBO

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

This is one of the tougher calls.

Thandie Newton is a show-stealingly sexy marvel as Westworld’s vengefully reawakened animatronic host, Maeve. This Is Us made an instant star of Chrissy Metz as the larger-than-life Kate, and from the same show, Mandy Moore is a heartbreaker as mom Rebecca. Lena Headey has yet to win as Game of Thrones’ icy villainess Cersei, and Olivia Colman, as The Night Manager’s badass agent Angela Burr, never disappoints. But in terms of overall impact, go with Westworld’s Ms. Robot.

Who Will Win: Thandie Newton

FX

Best Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie

As it’s been throughout awards season, the toss-up is between O.J.’s Courtney B. Vance as flamboyant Johnnie Cochran and All the Way’s towering Bryan Cranston as LBJ, with Vance the presumed front-runner. The Night Of’s excellent Riz Ahmed and John Turturro may cancel each other out, leaving The Night Manager’s dashing Tom Hiddleston as the most remote possibility.

Who Will Win: Courtney B. Vance

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