POSSIBLE FUEL SHORTAGES: an overlooked factor in risk management in the resources industry.An article published in National Resources Review, July 2014 issue. "Australia’s oil vulnerability is very high, and future fuel supplies cannot be guaranteed.Already 91% of our fuel is imported".

The proposed indexation is a crucial first step, but in addition we should go much further.Australia should follow the lead of a past UK Conservative Government and increase fuel excise on a fuel-tax escalator by CPI plus 5% or so.The additional fuel excise raised should not be hypothecated to ever more roads, but used for education, hospitals, aged care and all the other services which are not properly funded

Modern agriculture’s high levels of production and global markets have been made possible through vast inputs of fossil fuels for machinery, transport, fertilizer, chemicals, crop and processed food production. Consequently, the peaking and depletion of oil, which eventually will be followed by gas, will challenge how we both produce agricultural output and live in rural and remote Australia

Europe and the Ukraine are dangerously reliant on imports of Russian gas, but Australia is even more dependent on imported fuel and oil.

An NRMA report on the nation's liquid fuel security shows that 91% of the fuel for our cars, trucks and planes is imported, either directly or as crude oil to be refined in Australia.

AUSTRALIA would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if its overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off.

The government has allowed the country to become too dependent on foreign supply of liquid fuels.

The report says there are no coherent contingency plans to deal with the devastating impact of any cut to overseas supply because of war, economic turmoil or natural disasters, instead adopting a "she'll be right" approach. Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have.

The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil says it is crucial that our serious oil vulnerability is reduced.Raising fuel taxes to European levels via a fuel tax escalator would greatly encourage fuel-saving strategies and provide funding for improved public transport.It would also help us value petrol as a scarce resource, just as the big drought forced us to value water supplies.

Global oil production has been almost static since 2005 and is forecast to start declining soon.The output from most of the world’s major oilfields is already in decline, just as Australia’s oil production has been falling steadily since 2000.

Perth's phantom mailout enthusiast. ASPO-Australia has been getting quite a lot of letters returned by Australia Post. However, we did not send them. Some enthusiasts have been sending Peak Oil information around with ASPO-Australia logos etc on the envelopes. These letters are sent anonymously, so we can't get in touch to thank them for their efforts or to encourage them to include their names and addresses when sending out Peak Oil information. We would like to touch base with the poster(s), please. Bruce Robinson, Convenor, 9384 7409

An oil crash is on its way and we should be readyNew Scientist 4th November 2013 Jeremy LeggettFive years ago the world was in the grip of a financial crisis that is still reverberating around the globe. Much of the blame for that can be attributed to weaknesses in human psychology: we have a collective tendency to be blind to the kind of risks that can crash economies and imperil civilisations

US shale oil has so far replaced 2 mb/d of its crude oil imports which peaked at around 10 mb/d in 2005. If this effort can be doubled the US would still need to import around 6 mb/d. Matt Mushalik in Resilience.org

The Oil Security Index is an analytical tool designed to be an intuitive tool for policymakers, business leaders, and the general public to easily measure and compare the relative oil security of more than a dozen countries around the world

Australian Oil Vulnerability Risk Management ConferenceBrisbane June 4th 2013The conference was very successful, and ASPO-Australia is grateful to Griffith University and Sunshine Coast Regional Council for support. ProgrammeMedia ReleasePeak Oil, Climate Change and Global Sustainability - The Case for Emergency Action, Ian Dunlop Slides, Audio (100MB)City of Stirling Oil Risk Strategy Ross Povey Slides, Audio (45MB)Oil Vulnerability in Australian Cities: Transition and Challenges Jago Dodson Text, Audio (50MB)Oil Vulnerability Implications for Planning Wally Wight Slides,Audio (40MB)Peak Oil Preparedness and Parturition Dr Kirsten Small SlidesAudio (53MB)Planning for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to Successfully Manage Coming Transport Revolutions Prof Antony PerlSlidesAudio (70MB)
The panel discussion at the end of the Symposium was recorded and was broadcast on ABC Radio National "Big Ideas" on Monday 10th June at 8pm. Available online at the ABC Big Ideas programme.

Increase fuel taxes - ASPO.

Politicians should confront the ‘Sacred Cow’ status of petrol prices and increase fuel taxes in this budget and in subsequent years, according to the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO).

ASPO convenor, Bruce Robinson says as well as providing vital funds for education, health, public transport and safer roads, increasing fuel taxes will help people reduce their unsustainable dependence on car travel.

Mr Robinson says Australian cities are being increasingly throttled by traffic congestion and our dependence on imported fuel leaves us very vulnerable to oil shocks and future global oil shortages.

“A recent report by Air Vice Marshall John Blackburn for the NRMA warned that governments have allowed us to become too dependent on foreign supplies for our liquid fuels,” says Mr Robinson. “85% of our transport fuel is now imported, either as crude oil for Australian refineries or direct as refined fuel. The report warned that Australia would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if our overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off.”

We are very sad to have learned recently that David Kilsby, the founder of ASPO-Sydney, died in May 2012. He was a very skilled urban and transport planner aware of the serious implications of Peak Oil. He compiled the ASPO-Australia Urban and Transport Planning Working Group submission to the 2006 Senate Inquiry and appeared in person with Ali Samsam Bakhtiari in Sydney. (Hansard report) He also prepared the Cairns Oil Vulnerability Report for Queensland Transport in 2007. He had been handicapped in recent years by a degenerative neurological disease. David's CV and his website with copies of a lot of Peak Oil papers and others.

AUSTRALIA would grind to a halt within three weeks with almost no deliveries of food or medicine if its overseas oil and fuel supplies were cut off Article in The Australian28-February-2013NRMA report and summary NRMA infographic

Energy Watch Group Update of world oil, gas coal and uranium forecasts. An invaluable independent assessment from Werner Zittel in Munich. March 2013

Stirling Oil Risk StrategyThe City of Stirling is Perth's biggest local government. The Oil Risk Strategy, adopted in July 2012, is the result of long and patient work by Council staff over some six years. It is a major achievement and sets a standard that we can only hope State and Federal Governments will follow, to actually accept and discuss Peak Oil and its implications

Comments on the inadequate coverage of the risk of future oil shortages in the draft Energy White Paper

The coverage of the real risks of future global oil shortages in the Energy White Paper is very seriously inadequate and displays a common but unfortunate tendency in Government and business to overlook or discount crucial risk factors.

“Predictable Surprises” is the title of an essay published in the Harvard Business Review and a subsequent book.

“Why do leaders consistently ignore looming signs of crises even when they know the consequences could be devastating?

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs

Another analogy is “The Optimism Bias”, where only the most positive and favourable outcomes are considered in planning. This is an unconscious bias.However, the associated “Strategic Misrepresentation” is a related deliberate deception towards an unrealistically optimistic outcome.

ASPO conference Vienna, 30th May-June 1st 2012Vienna hosted the 10th annual ASPO Conference, a gathering of international top experts on the depletion of fossil fuels and energy availability. The conference provided attendees the latest updates on a wide range of energy issues including fossil fuel availability, short and long term economic consequences of increasing energy prices, and energy supply and demand scenarios. Our wide ranging audience of decision makers, scientists, the business sector, public authorities and NGOs ensured discussions and networking opportunities on an international in-depth level.This year´s International ASPO Conference took place at the medieval “Palais Niederösterreich” in Vienna´s beautiful city center during May 30 – June 1, 2012.

Govt should release 2009 “Peak Oil” report

The Federal Government has been accused by a Sydney newspaper of hiding a valuable “Peak Oil” report which forecasts global oil shortages by 2017.

The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) prepared a valuable 400 page report in 2009 “Transport Energy Futures: Long-term oil supply trends and projections which models future oil production from very detailed data. The report concludes "The modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond".

Copies of the report are available on the Australian Institute of Energy website here ,and via other links on ASPO-Australia belowNews Release

From the Energy Bulletin, a review by Ugo Bardi (ASPO-Italia) "One of the most interesting talks at the recent meeting on Energy organized by the Club of Rome in Basel, was the one given by Ian Dunlop, of ASPO Australia. It was not so much on energy, but on the interconnection of energy with climate change. It was up to date and saying the things that needed to be said. That is, Ian Dunlop didn't shy away from saying that climate change is threatening the very existence of our civilization and that we must do something quick about it. It was an excellent talk, give a look to the slides if you have a moment, here is the link " Also available at ASPO-Australia here

Transport Energy Futures: Long-term oil supply trends and projections
Report 117BITRE 2009 Dr David Gargett
"The modelling is forecasting what can be termed ‘the 2017 drop-off’. The outlook under a base case scenario is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017, which will stretch to the end of the century and beyond". This report is no longer available from BITRE, but no reason has been given for its withdrawal. ASPO-Australia was asked to take it off our website. However, the report is available at the Australian Institute of Energy, here, from Ian McPherson of SydneyPeakOil (here) and on a French website

"Labor has tried to hide the evidence" Jan 20th article in the DailyTelegraph here. The article is a bit muddy, muddled and sensationalist, but it has brought BITRE 117 to the public attention

TheASPO9 conference presentations and video are available at www.ASPO9.be I recommend watching those by Aleklett, Skrebowski, Rubins and Murphy first, but there are lots of interesting talks.

ABC TV Catalyst Nationwide Peak Oil programme Thurs 28th April. or Watch on You-TubeIn just a century, we’ve become entirely dependent on cheap oil. We rely on oil for just about everything, from the food we eat, to our transport systems and even our economic stability. So what would happen if we ran out? There’s a growing fear amongst petroleum experts that it’s happening much sooner than previously thought – that we are hitting Peak Oil now. So how soon will demand outstrip supply, and will we be able to avoid the global economy collapsing when it does? How prepared are we for the Oil Crunch?

International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook April 2011 OIL SCARCITY, GROWTH, AND GLOBAL IMBALANCES Summary1. Global oil markets are in a period of increased scarcity, reflecting rapid growth in oil demand in emerging economies and a downshift in oil supply growth.
2. Gradual and moderate increases in oil scarcity––which seems to be the most likely scenario––would have a small impact on medium-term global economic growth. However, risks remain that scarcity or its growth impact could be more significant.
3. A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply a surge in global capital flows and a widening of current account imbalances.
4. Policies should aim at facilitating adjustment to unexpected changes in oil scarcity and at lowering risks from larger-than-expected medium-term oil scarcity.

Science Show ABC Radio, 23-April. Long interviews with Chris Skrebowski, Fatih Birol and Jeremy Leggett (interviews by Jonica Newby as part of her Catalyst preparation)

Oil supplies are rapidly dwindling and demand is increasing leading analysts to warn of an impending oil crunch. The global oil supply has lost the equivalent of the volume of the North Sea oil reserve in 15 months. By 2014, supply is expected to fall short of demand. Other factors could bring that forward. Fatih Birol says the age of cheap oil is over and we all need to prepare ourselves for higher oil prices. Further he says no government is prepared for what lies ahead. Jeremy Leggett describes the oil crunch, when global supply fails to meet demand.

Submission to the Prime Minister: 30th March 2011. When the PM was opening the National Trust property, the home of Australia's wartime prime minister, John Curtin, I took the opportunity to introduce myself, and to request a "Garnaut-style" independent inquiry into Australi's oil vulnerability. I handed her the submission. I also gave a copy to Defence Minister, Stephen Smith, and Cabinet Minister, Senator Chris Evans. It was informal, and the PM had been chatting to our neighbours over the back fence just before I talked to her about the future oil shortages.

**************************************************Excellence in Oil & Gas Sydney, Feb 28 – March 2, 2011The 6th annualExcellence in Oil & Gas summit is Sydney’s largest event which stimulates investment in the oil and gas sector, by connecting the finance and investment communities with oil & gas companies. "Peak Oil-What is it, and what does it mean for investors" Invited presentation by Bruce Robinson 1st March 2011

Oil depletion expert, Bruce Robinson, has recommended to the Bunbury City Council that it should start preparing an Oil Vulnerability plan. (recommendation, and Peak Oil summary)

Global oil production is likely to start its inevitable decline sometime in the next few years, perhaps by 2015 or earlier."Peak Oil" is the time when oil shortages begin as the total production from the world's giant oil fields begins to decrease, instead of rising steadily as it has done over the past 100 years.

Cities that prepare in advance for the future oil shortages will have tremendous advantages over those thatkeep believing that business will always be as usual.Bunbury is well-equipped to handle fuel shortages, as travel distances in the city are much shorter than those in Perth.If fuel gets towards the CSIRO scenario of $8/litre by 2018, there will be a lot of changes needed in people's travel habits.Oil Vulnerability Planning should be commonplace, just as people assess their bushfire risks and have emergency plans in case there are major bushfires.

Peak Oil is almost sure to hit Bunbury people much sooner and much harder than Climate Change, but all the current planning is for Climate Change and none for increasingly severe oil shortages.

Mr Robinson is national Convenor of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-Australia).He will be speaking at a seminar arranged by Engineers Australia at ECU Bunbury at 6pm Tuesday evening 5th October and at ECU at noon on Wednesday 6th October

For further information contact Bruce Robinson on 0427 398 708

Lasers or Longbows? A Paradox of Military Technology

Major Cameron Leckie, Australian Defence Force Journal August 2010 (44-56)The advantage provided by the increased complexity of a military capability increases the vulnerability of that same capability to systemic collapse due to its reliance on complex supply chainsPeak Oil is just one of the problems facing defence forces, but perhaps a critical one in that the globalisation of manufacturing and supply depends on it

Because of a number of converging threats, it appears unlikely that current levels of complexity can be maintained indefinitely. These threats are likely to present themselves as a series of ‘strategic shocks’ that will precipitate the transition from abundance to scarcity industrialism.Based on an analysis of the factors leading to this paradox, the most effective response appears to be a reduction in the complexity of military capabilities.

Peak oil is the villain governments needUsing the threat of a high oil prices is a sell the public will buy into – unlike intangible arguments over climate change Guardian.11-Aug-2010

Vale Matt Simmons: One of the great pioneers of popularising Peak Oil died August 9th 2010. Matt Simmons was a Republican investment banker who could communicate with the big end of town and advise George W Bush on energy matters. His many presentations were a valuable tool for us. They are now archived on the Ocean Energy site.

27th April 2010ABC News On-Line and radio("PM")

Profs. Peter Newman and Kjell Aleklett

• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel soon Full US report

Oil reserves 'exaggerated by one third'Sydney Morning HeraldMarch 24, 2010
The world's oil reserves have been exaggerated by up to a third, according to Sir David King, Britain's former chief scientist, who has warned of shortages and price spikes within years.
The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share. http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_stories/2010/100324.html

Business calls for urgent action on “oil crunch” threat to UK economyLondon, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015.

The UK Guardian: Nov 9th 2009The world is much closer to running short of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate ofdecline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

- analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008by ASPO President Prof Kjell Aleklett and a team including Adelaide's Michael LardelliThis paper details the errors in IEA analysis and their 25% overestimates of future oil production, as outlined in Prof Aleklett's tour of Australia in June."In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts".

IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality':In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate

The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 was released in London 10th November. It offers nothing much new about oil production, and repeats the unsubstantiated claims made in WEO-2008, that are refuted clearly and simply by the Uppsala Global Energy Systems Group (above). They do provide free the chapter from WEO-2008 about global oil field decline rates. (here)

Peak oil expected in 2009: MacquarieSpare capacity of 5.2 million bpd will be wiped out by 2012, Australian bank says Sep. 16, 2009

Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.

“This is our view – capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources,” Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters. (this was covered in North America papers, but not in Australia)

Prof Kjell Aleklett heads the Global Energy Systems group in the Department of Physics at the University of Uppsala, and he is President of ASPO-International. He and his colleagues have published widely about Peak Oil and future oil supply forecasts, and about the rate of decline of giant oil field production. He was in Australia as a plenary speaker for the Supply Chain and Logistics Conference, SmartConference, in Sydney, June 10th 2009.

Recent papers and articles from Prof Aleklett and the Global Energy System group

IEA output forecasts are 'outside reality':In a direct shot at the most widely followed estimates of future oil flows, a leading peak oil proponent said the International Energy Agency's supply projections are significantly inaccurate. Platts Conference, Geneva 28th May 2008

Executive Summary

World oil production is at or near its historic peak and will most likely begin to decline within several years. Net exports of oil available on the world market have probably entered a decline that will continue more steeply than the declining rate of production. Compounded by the impact of geopolitical circumstances, extreme weather events and other economic trends, the decline in oil availability will see dramatically increasing and highly volatile oil and fuel prices, oil supply shocks and impacts on economic growth, employment, demographics and transport patterns.

As a result of all the leaks and pre-release publicity, the actual release has not attracted as much notice as it deserves.

The New York TImes had covered the pre-release of the Executive Summary of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 : The global economic slump that has curbed energy demand and pushed oil prices down in recent months may provide only a short-lived respite for consumers, according to the world’s top energy forecaster. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices.

The IEA asked us (10th November) to remove our copy of the Executive Summary which was released on Thursday 6th November but not made publicly available in spite of media reports to the contrary. The formal release for the full report was Wed 12th November (links above)

ASPO-Australia has written to Prof Garnaut, suggesting that much more consideration be given to oil depletion in the lead-up to the 2009 Copenhagen conference.

"We are deeply concerned that your Draft Report explicitly rejects the notion that oil depletion will constrain economic growth within the next 50 years despite very strong evidence to the contrary. In our view the resulting analysis, conclusions and policy recommendations are flawed and will probably exacerbate the climate change mitigation problem.

The purpose of this letter is to draw your attention to growing acceptance of oil depletion in the scientific community and even by the IEA in its revision of the energy forecasts and emissions scenarios in the forthcoming World Energy Outlook 2008, a document intended in large part to inform negotiations in Copenhagen. Our view is that this will substantially improve the prospects for an effective agreement around a target atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450ppm."

The full detailed letter to Garnaut (written by Stuart McCarthy in Brisbane) is available here.

News Release, 25th July 2008An attack on Iran could cripple Australia's transportAn attack on Iran could cripple Australia's transport, Bruce Robinson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia said.A third global oil crisis is very likely if Iran is attacked, as 20% of the world's oil is shipped through the narrow Strait of Hormuz.Iran also produces about 5% of the world oil (~4 M bbl/day).

A conflagration in the Persian Gulf could make a 30% reduction in petrol and diesel supplies, similar to WA's gas shortage, but with much more severe and widespread consequences.

In the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, Australia was shielded by Bass Strait production, but these fields have been in decline since 1985, and almost 80% of our petroleum products now come from imported oil.Australia is now exceptionally vulnerable to a sudden petrol and diesel shortage.

ASPO-Australia called on Foreign Minister Stephen Smith to caution Condoleeza Rice against any attack on Iran, because of its probable impact on Australia.

We are not well prepared to handle a sudden petrol shortage.There are no adequate plans in place to allocate scarce fuel to those in greatest need.If there is petrol rationing, then we will also need to ration public transport, as it does not have enough spare capacity.Contact Bruce Robinson08-9384-74090427 398 708

Reference: Australian Institute of Petroleum http://www.aip.com.au/industry/supplyreliability.htm
In 2006-07, Australian refineries supplied around 75% of total Australian demand for petroleum products. That is, around 25% of product demand was met by imports. Around 70% of crude oil used in Australian refineries is imported (30% is from Australian oilfields). Australia exports a fair proportion of its oil production while importing other oil, so our overall net oil self-sufficiency is higher than the figures above, but we are very vulnerable in the short-term if imports drop.

The Sydney Morning Herald, one of the nation's leading papers, sums it up in a perceptive cartoon

A new report by the CSIRO has warned the cost of petrol could rise to as high as $8 a litre in the next 10 years. The Fuel for Thought study by the Future Fuels Forum says that would be the worst-case scenario if oil production does not keep up with increasing demand.

Petroleum engineer Phil Hart from the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas believes it will not be long before the demand for oil will outstrip supply. "Oil production has been essentially flat since 2005, and we have only another couple of years at this same sort of level of production before we start seeing oil production going into decline," he said.

Doctor John Wright from the CSIRO has told ABC's AM program the study also suggests that such an oil shock would have a greater impact than a carbon emissions trading scheme.

Preparing for the Petrol Droughts. An evidence-based approachPeak Oil, and what we can do, a review. Bruce Robinson 11th July 2008 Global oil production is quite likely to halve by 2030, with the decline possibly starting very soon. A Federal Office of Oil Vulnerability and a National Oil Vulnerability Mitigation Strategy (as being prepared in Queensland) are essential urgent first steps for Australia.We need to collect and analyse the evidence on which to base future policies to reduce our oil vulnerability across all portfolios.

ASPO Australia spokesperson Phil Hart gave this speech at the launch of the report:

The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil congratulates CSIRO for leading the Future Fuels Forum and thanks all the participants for the constructive dialogue that led to this final report. We have all learnt new things along the way. I have been personally encouraged to hear of the many changes businesses have been making – there are more pro-active changes under way than even I realised.

2007 began with oil prices falling back to near $50 a barrel – because the speculators got it wrong. Many forum participants would have choked on a prediction of $8/litre early last year, but tight supply and the rapid increase in prices since then have given them courage to accept these dramatic model outcomes now. No one can know the precise future of oil prices, but such high figures reflect how hard it is to transform our cities and economies built on cheap oil when we are faced with declining oil production.

The Peak Oil, oil crisis, and petrol rationing plans are topics that should have been on the agenda at the 2020 summit.

Bruce Robinson, Convenor of ASPO-Australia, says that governments are ignoring the probability that global oil shortages will start to hit Australia in the next few years, just as our own production continues to decline.We could be facing a crippling oil trade deficit of $100 billion pa by 2015, four times the figure mentioned by Martin Ferguson, unless we can take serious steps to reduce our oil vulnerability.

Many bnght people from the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil nominated for the summit, but none were selected.

ASPO is concerned that the threats that Peak Oil poses are being systematically ignored and there will be chaos if oil shortages hit Australia.We should plan well ahead for petrol droughts and oil crises, just as we do for cyclones and bushfires. Oil vulnerability assessment should be a routine risk management feature, not a rarity. The most probable date for Peak Oil is 2012 (+/- 5 years)

ABARE's determined forecasts of falling oil prices have been consistently wrong for five years, as it is geological limits that control oil production not economics.Economists do not realise that geological forces are more powerful than market forces. A random number generator would perform better than ABARE's forecasters. See graph at www.ASPO-Australia.org.au/References/Bruce/abare-mar-08.jpg

Transcript of an address given March 4 to the Brisbane Institute by the Honourable Andrew McNamara, Queensland Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation.

I’d like to pay my respects to the traditional owners of the land on which we gather this evening.

I want to thank the Board of the Brisbane Institute for the invitation to address this gathering.

Tonight I want to talk about capital S Sustainability.

By that I don’t mean the usual narrow environmental concept of sustainability in agricultural production and land use.

I mean the future of our society, our economy and our environment; the
structure of our cities, their energy and water sources and demand
profiles; the treatment of these sources of our wealth; the imminent
peaking of world oil supplies; our use of finite resources like gas and
coal; and the way we dispose of those resources when we’re finished
with them.

On Monday night in Ipswich two local engineers, Steve Posselt and
Stuart McCarthy, in conjunction with the Ipswich Chamber of Commerce
and Industry and Ipswich Green—an organisation of which I am a
cofounder—ran an Ipswich leaders forum to outline to the community the
serious challenge of sustainability.

Their timing could not have been better. Today the price of a barrel
of West Texas crude oil passed through the $US110 mark. This is the
highest price oil has ever reached, either in current or inflation
adjusted terms.