These are just my opinions. I cannot promise that I will be perfect, but I can promise that I will seek to understand and illuminate whatever moves that the Giants make (my obsession and compulsion). I will share my love of baseball and my passion for the Giants. And I will try to teach, best that I can. Often, I tackle the prevailing mood among Giants fans and see if that is a correct stance, good or bad.

I will start off with a quote from one source that has put their mocks behind their paid wall, Perfect Games.

Due to the lack of a clear cut No. 1 prospect, many have unfairly labeled the 2012 draft crop as weak. I would contend that the available talent base is sound, but don't be surprised to see teams take players earlier than where they have been projected since you could make an argument for 50-60 different players to be selected among the top 30 picks.

The biggest wildcard remains Lucas Giolito, who I don't have projected to be selected in the first round. I won't be surprised if he is taken early by a team that has seen enough of him in the past, which will indicate that they are confident in his overall health, but history suggests that players, particularly pitchers, that suffer injuries and subsequently don't pitch in the weeks (or months) leading up to the draft typically fall. In fact, things are so quiet on that front that some have speculated that he may have a deal in place with a team, thus not needing to share medical reports more openly.

And that gels with what I've been reading in other places, that while there is no clear-cut top prospect, there is a deep well of talent that can fall almost anyplace in the first couple of rounds.

Mayo in his latest mock (first and only full first round mock) projects that the Giants are looking at high school arms, and Brian Johnson is his projected Giants pick, because Johnson has pitched well of late and could be quick to the bigs. (Mayo was the one who turned me on to the possibility that we could draft Lincecum, though he thought we would pass on him and select Daniel Bard, who ended up with Boston later in the first round)

Mayo noted in his prior mock, covering only the top 20, that "the Giants will discuss college hitters and high school pitchers" for this pick. He noted that Nick Travieso, Lance McCullers, and Walker Weickel should all get a look, but the power of Richie Shaffer, who can play the corner infield positions, might be too intriguing to pass up, and so he projected Shaffer in that mock.

Mayo no longer projects that the Dodgers to select Travieso with the 18th pick (in fact he falls out of the first round), so he could be available by the Giants pick. He had projected the Rockies to take Piscotty 10th but now have him falling to 30th to the Yankees.

BA's Callis says his best guess (in his 4th and final mock draft) is that the Giants will go with a high school arm, such as Ty Hensley or Nick Travieso, Zach Eflin or Walker Weickel (the last three of whom are RHP from Florida), and he ended up projecting the Giants to select Travieso. He projected the Giants to select Travieso in all his mocks. He also noted that if Shaffer or Stephen Piscotty is still available, the Giants could look to upgrade their offense.

Callis, however, projects Shaffer to be selected 16th by the Nationals, Piscotty to be selected 19th by the Cards, leaving only the pitchers. And he projects Ty Hensley to be selected by the Dodgers 18th. He had Eflin going 25th, Weicker 30th.

As noted, Callis also projected Nick Travieso in his 3rd mock. He had the A's selecting McCullers with their 11th pick, Indians selecting Richie Shaffer with their 15th pick, Dodgers selecting Ty Hensley with their 18th pick. Piscotty was 23rd, Eflin 30th, and Weickel 31st. This was done just last Friday, June 1st.

BP's Goldstein also projects the Giants to select Ty Hensley. He also noted Walker Weickel as a possbility. He sees McCullers selected by Toronto #17. He has Shaffer picked #23 and Piscotty 30th. He does not list Travieso, Eflin, or Weickel, so they all would be available to the Giants at their pick, if they want them.

Sicke's just released his mock draft today. He also has the Giants selecting Travieso, noting that the "sturdy hard-throwing high school arm" seems like a good bet for them. He also notes that Ty Buttrey, Walker Weickel, Zach Eflin, Shane Watson, and Lucas Sims are all logical here too. He noted that if they want a bat, "Gallo or Seager would make sense." He has Shaffer going 11th to A's, McCullers going 9th to Marlins, Hensley to Dodgers.

His partner, Matt Garrioch has the Giants selecting Andrew Heaney, LHP for Oklahoma. "Could be one of the quicker players to reach the bigs and is a safe bet to be a #3 starter or better." He has Shaffer going 11th to A's as well ("best college hitter"), McCullers #15 to Indians, Hensley #23 to Cards

Sickels also provided list by talent. Here are the names noted above in the mocks, plus some other interesting names that might come into play for the Giants:

Lucas Giolito, HS RHP, #9, #2 for him if no injury (reports I have read are that he could fall far due to elbow injury; Mayo do not see him in the Top 20)

Mitch Brown, HS RHP, #30, Throws hard, throws strikes, diverse arsenal, great makeup, stock rising. I like him better than many of the warmer-weather HS arms with more press. University of San Diego commitment (Looking at names after 20, this description reads like a checklist of things Giants like to see from their pitchers, so I included him).

Nick Travieso, HS RHP, #33 Notes Great fastball/slider combo, and that his command is improving.

Walker Weickel, HS RHP, #34

Zach Eflin, HS RHP, #35

BA also released the Top 500 listing, here are the names and ranking:

Lucas Giolito, #9

Lance McCullers Jr., #13

Deven Marrero, #14

Andrew Heaney, #17

D.J. Davis, #20

Richie Shaffer, #21

Victor Roache, #22

Ty Hensley, #23

Matt Smoral, #24

Stephen Piscotty, #26

Stryker Trahan, #27

Zach Eflin, #31

Joey Gallo, #33

Walker Weickel, #37

Nick Travieso, #40
(BA must have inside info to have Giants select him in every mock and yet they rank him so far back)

Mitch Brown, #44

And, of course, BA provided an updated Top 50 listing today, so here are the rankings for the above, kept in the same name order:

Lucas Giolito, #9

Lance McCullers Jr., #13

Deven Marrero, #15 (fell one)

Andrew Heaney, #10 (rose 7 spots)

D.J. Davis, #20

Richie Shaffer, #22
(fell one)

Victor Roache, #24
(fell two)

Ty Hensley, #21 (rose two)

Matt Smoral, #25
(fell one)

Stephen Piscotty, #27
(fell one)

Stryker Trahan, #28
(fell one)

Zach Eflin, #33 (fell two)

Joey Gallo, #23 (quite a jump up, 10 spots)

Walker Weickel, #38
(fell one)

Nick Travieso, #30 (jumped up 10 spots, but still far from the Giants #20; then again, rankings had Panik in the 40's and beyond)

It is almost impossible to guess who the Giants will pick with a pick this late in the first round, even in the first 20. Invariably, there will be teams ahead of the Giants who will go off the script that the mock drafts have them picking. That then dominoes down to the Giants pick. Who knows who is the Jeter or Lincecum among the Top 20 who may fall into Sabean's lap down that deep (two picks that were expected to be gone by the time it was for Sabean's team to pick).

In addition, the Giants often goes off script from what the prognosticators had them picking. Daniel Bard was the popular choice for the pick the Giants used to get Lincecum. Most the pickers had them picking a hitter when they ended up with Bumgarner, like Mills. And nobody had the Giants picking Brown or Panik, thinking that both were more likely to be picked in the supplemental first round, though I would note that someone had the Giants selecting Brown in one of the early mocks, but he fell when he was injured. Many had the Giants going for a number of HS starting pitchers for the Panik but they were all selected by the pick, so perhaps Panik was the consolation prize. One can never tell when a team will go off the script.

That is why I felt I should include Lucas Giolito. Very high ranked but his injury might push him back, depending on the picker's opinion of how injured he is. Callis thinks he'll be selected by Blue Jays #17, Goldstein #12.

I've seen a number of these names on DrB's blog in this various discussions regarding the draft. Hensley is a name I saw a lot in his discussions regarding who the Giants will pick. Roache too. He and Shankbone have discussed a lot of the suspects there. Shankbone also ran the Sickel's mock draft for the Giants, and selected Ty Hensley with his first pick.

So the likely suspects, based on the mocks are Ty Hensley and Nick Travieso, with Zach Eflin and Walker Weicker as other common names noted. That said, someone higher like Lucas Giolito or Lance McCullers Jr. or Deven Marrero or Andrew Heaney might fall to them, as the Giants, at least under John Barr, appears willing to draft players whose stock had fallen prior to the draft or who might have fallen to the Giants pick and they had rated him higher.

10 comments:

Have to correct my speculations here already. Looking at the tweets from draft experts, clearly the new CBA is affecting draft strategies, should have accounted for that.

The problem is that high school players could skip this draft and come back in a few years, and thus many of the experts expect anybody who falls, like if Giolito's injury does affect team's decisions, to pass on a $1.5M to $2.0M bonus because he could have had higher.

Writing this, would have to be pretty greedy and sure of doing well to pass on something like that. Still, this is what the experts are saying right now, so I wanted to report it.

Wow, first domino falls as the Houston Astros select SS Carlos Correa when everyone had them selecting one of the top pitchers, like Stanford's Appel (but who was rumored to be shopping the Astro's rumored $6M offer to other teams; bad form but that's Boras for you).

Wanted to note that the Giants just swept the Cubbies to move to 2.5 games behind the Dodgers. I had written that their goal was to get close to the Dodgers by the end of June and here they are, June 4th, just 2.5 games back (though they play the Phillies today, so that will change eventually).

Still, they did what they had to do, take care of the pushover teams, ideally sweep them. Four game sweep, though, impressive.

Now they get to face the Padres, who are 2-8 in their last 10 games, and we have Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain facing them, so we are looking pretty good, for the most part, even for Lincecum, facing Anthony Bass, 2-5, 4.00 ERA.

Of course, the offense sputtered against the Cubs, but still good enough to win all four games.

Except for the Astro's surprised drafting of Carlos Correa, Mayo, Sickels, and Callis has nailed the other picks. The best have been very good in projecting the picks in years past and they continue it again this year. Everyone has Almoro picked 6th...

Stratton! Funny stuff, my draft room wanted me to pick him in the mock, and I stuck to my board with Hensley. I like the pick. He should move fast, he's got advanced stuff, and he's a late bloomer. Only red flag is his age. But with 3 of the 5 starters on 2 year deals, this is a smart move.

I, Me, Mine

Wow, this was easy and amazingly free. I am a big Giants fan and I hope to use my experience in business (MBA) and analytics (nearly 25 years) to bring up interesting facts to other Giants fans so that we may better understand the team's chances for success (or not) and hopefully share their insights with me. Please read my "OGC's Business Plan" link to better understand what my philosophy is for building a successful MLB team.
I want to teach and share my love of baseball and, in particular, my love for the San Francisco Giants. I will believe to my dying days that Bobby Bonds should be in Baseball’s Hall of Fame for being one of the few to bring the combination of power and speed to the game.
Why a blog? I love technology and society and just wanted to participate in this trend to see what it felt like. Plus I have a lot of questions I would like answered about the Giants and since I don't see anyone else tackling them, I've taken it upon myself to do it. Not that I'm that special, but just that I'm willing to put in the time to investigate them.