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September 19, 2006

Op-Ed Columnist

From Tinseltown to Splitsville: Just Do the Math

I wish no ill to Brangelina, Tom and Katie, or Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock. Like any mortal, I revere the romances on Olympus. I thrilled to hear of Pam’s secret wedding and agonized at reports of Angelina’s reluctance to marry (or is Brad dragging his feet?). When I finished poring over Vanity Fair’s photo spread of Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes with their daughter, my only bitter thought was: Why just 22 pages?

But we inquiring minds must be realistic. Remember your crazy joy at past celebrity marriages — Jessica and Nick, Julia and Lyle, Uma and Ethan? You made space on your mantle for the smiling couple’s picture. You rushed them a set of monogrammed towels. You ignored the rumors of fights and the photos with people they weren’t married to (it was just a friendly dinner!).

No, you were sure this one was for the ages — until the day their publicist put out the statement about an “amicable” decision to pursue “separate lives.” Amicable! How could the couple of the century bear to be apart? You felt deceived, used, discarded. You stared at their photo and thought: I don’t even know you anymore.

I can’t bear any more of these breakups, so I have turned to science to steel my heart. I went to Garth Sundem, the wickedly ingenious author of “Geek Logik,” a new book of mathematical formulas for deciding questions like whether you should sleep with a co-worker, whether you should join a gym or see a therapist, and whether you can wear a Speedo without frightening small children.

I asked Sundem to set his sights even higher. The result of our labors (well, mostly his labors, but I want a piece of this scientific breakthrough) is the Sundem/Tierney Unified Celebrity Theory, an equation for predicting the odds that a celebrity marriage will last.

By comparing the many failed marriages with the few successes (like Johnny Cash and June Carter, or Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward), Sundem identified telltale factors likes celebrities’ ages, marital track records and levels of fame.

Younger couples have worse prospects than older couples do, particularly if they rush to the altar before getting to know each other. Britney Spears and Kevin Federline have only a 1 percent chance of making it to their fifth anniversary, according to our equation, and the most famously impetuous young couple of all, Romeo and Juliet, would have had zero chance of lasting five years.

Fame, as measured by Google hits, is no good for a marriage. The odds get even worse when the woman’s Google hits outnumber the man’s, as when Jennifer Lopez fell for a waiter named Ojani Noa. Our equation gave their marriage less than 1 percent chance of surviving five years; it actually lasted 13 months.

A crucial predictor is the sex-symbol factor, determined by looking at the woman’s first five Google hits and counting how many show her in sexy attire (or no attire). The skimpier the outfits, the skimpier the marriage, as illustrated in the short unions of Jessica Simpson (three years to Nick) and Marilyn Monroe (274 days to Joe DiMaggio).

This factor bodes ill for Brangelina. Our equation gave Brad Pitt’s marriage to Jennifer Aniston a fighting 34 percent chance of lasting five years (thanks to the divorce proceedings, they just made it). But Angelina Jolie’s sex-symbol factor is much higher than Jen’s. If Brangelina get married, their chance of lasting five years is less than 5 percent, in the same ballpark as the odds for Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock.

The good news is that a few celebrity couples have roughly an even chance of lasting five years: Will Smith and Jada Pinkett; Matt Damon and Luciana Barroso; Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner.

But not Tom and Katie. They have so many Google hits and so many other factors against them — a whirlwind courtship, a big age gap, his two failed marriages — that their odds of celebrating a fifth anniversary are only 8 percent.

Maybe you can’t stop yourself from rooting for them. Don’t let me discourage you. But if you must send towels, skip the monograms.