NEBRASKA, FSU TOP PRESEASON FOOTBALL POLL

Our track record stinks. Since the Associated Press began its preseason college football poll in 1950, nine preordained No. 1s have captured the national championship.

That success rate, 18 percent, would send an athlete to the bench, a coach to the unemployment line and a gambler to the poorhouse. But we in the media are undaunted, and Saturday the AP released its 51st annual preseason poll as chosen by 71 reporters.

Some agonized over their ballots, methodically researching each of Division I-A's 115 teams. Others strolled into their favorite pub, ordered up a pint and asked Barkeep Bob to scribble 25 teams on a cocktail napkin.

Me? I chickened out and played the percentages. Nebraska and Florida State, my Nos. 1 and 2, are college football's premier programs. The rest of my top 25 is a who's who of the sport, from Michigan and Alabama to Southern Cal and Oklahoma.

So with the understanding that everything published can and will be used against me, here is a capsule look at one preseason top 25 ballot. Last season's record is in parentheses.

1. Nebraska (12-1) lost a national-high 25 fumbles last season, three in a 24-20 defeat at Texas that eliminated the Cornhuskers from national title contention. But with quarterback Eric Crouch, I-back Dan Alexander and wingback Bobby Newcombe returning, Nebraska will be more sure-handed and will trample most foes. Key games: Oct. 28 at Oklahoma; Nov. 11 at Kansas State.

2. If Florida State (12-0) repeats as national champion, look for coach Bobby Bowden to retire after 25 seasons in Tallahassee. After all, how much idiocy - defensive back Derrick Gibson's arrest for soliciting an undercover cop is merely the latest escapade - can one man tolerate? The Seminoles, led by quarterback Chris Weinke, will own the ACC. Key games: Oct. 7 at Miami; Nov. 18 Florida.

3. This is not Bo Schembechler's Michigan (10-2). The Wolverines averaged a school-record 264.8 yards passing last season, a mark that should fall in 2000 with quarterback Drew Henson and receiver David Terrell, who scored three touchdowns in Michigan's compelling 35-34 overtime conquest of Alabama in the Orange Bowl. Key games: Sept. 30 Wisconsin; Oct. 7 at Purdue.

4. Alabama (10-3) returns 17 starters, including receiver Freddie Milons, from a team that won the SEC West and whupped Florida in the conference championship game. Tide fanatics savaged coach Mike Dubose after the team's 38-7 loss to Virginia Tech in the 1998 Music City Bowl. Now they're fitting him for a hound's tooth hat. Key games: Oct. 14 Mississippi; Oct. 21 at Tennessee.

5. Wisconsin (10-2) is the first Big Ten program ever to win consecutive Rose Bowls. Think about that for a moment. The Badgers have outdone Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. And this year they could make it three, courtesy of quarterback Brooks Bollinger and cornerback Jamar Fletcher. Key games: Sept. 30 at Michigan; Oct. 7 Ohio State.

6. Georgia (8-4) appears primed to win its first SEC East championship and advance to the league title game in nearby Atlanta. Quarterback Quincy Carter is a legitimate Heisman candidate, while Marcus Stroud and Richard Seymour may be the nation's best defensive tackle tandem. Key games: Oct. 7 Tennessee; Oct. 28 Florida in Jacksonville.

7. Florida (9-4) has lost three consecutive games for the first time since 1990, a hoot for those weary of Steve Spurrier's smugness. But Spurrier is a helluva coach, and you can bet preseason practices have been rough. The Gators have depth at quarterback and tailback and a pass-rushing demon in defensive end Alex Brown. Key games: Sept. 16 at Tennessee; Nov. 18 at Florida State.

8. Once again Kansas State (11-1) plays an unconscionable non-Big 12 schedule (Iowa, Louisiana Tech, Ball State and North Texas). And once again the Wildcats should challenge for the conference championship. Quarterback Jonathan Beasley and tailback David Allen guide an offense that averaged 39.4 points in 1999. Key games: Sept. 30 at Colorado; Nov. 11 Nebraska.

9. Virginia Tech (11-1) must replace eight defensive starters and navigate a difficult road schedule, daunting tasks for any program, let alone a newcomer to the national elite. But as long as Michael Vick is breathing and can choose from a relay team of receivers, the Hokies should not fall far. Key games: Sept. 7 at East Carolina; Nov. 4 at Miami.

10. Miami (9-4) is the consensus choice to depose Virginia Tech in the Big East and return to national title contention. But first the Hurricanes must break five-game losing streaks against the Hokies and Florida State, both of whom visit the Orange Bowl in 2000. Miami has four quality tailbacks and an All-America receiver in Santana Moss. Key games: Sept. 9 at Washington; Nov. 18 at Syracuse.

16. Ole Miss (8-4) was 22nd in last year's final poll, behind Mississippi State and Southern Miss. But with tailback Deuce McAllister, the Rebels should be the state's best. Key games: Oct. 14 at Alabama; Nov. 18 at Georgia.

18. Oklahoma (7-5) advanced to postseason last year for the first time since 1994. Josh Heupel, the Big 12's top passer in 1999, will make it two straight. Key games: Oct. 14 at Kansas State; Oct. 28 Nebraska.

19. Southern California (6-6) advanced to the Rose Bowl just once in the '90s. Ten returning defensive starters could signal a rebirth. Key games: Aug. 27 Penn State in East Rutherford, N.J.; Nov. 18 at UCLA.

20. Ohio State (6-6) has nine returning defensive starters and a receiver named Ken-Yon Rambo. That should be enough to rebound from 1999. Key games: Oct. 7 at Wisconsin; Nov. 18 Michigan.

22. Clemson (6-6) hasn't won a bowl game in seven years, but that hasn't stopped its touched fans from salivating over the prospect of 16 returning starters. Key games: Sept. 23 at Virginia; Oct. 28 Georgia Tech.

24. The good news is Auburn (5-6) returns nine offensive starters. The bad news is the Tigers were 112th nationally last season in rushing offense. Key games: Oct. 14 at Florida; Nov. 18 at Alabama.

25. Southern Mississippi (9-3) has never lost a Conference USA game at home. But how will the Eagles fare opening with two road games against SEC opponents? Key games: Sept. 2 at Tennessee; Sept. 16 at Alabama.

David Teel can be reached at 247-4636 or by e-mail at dteel@dailypress.com

TEEL'S BALLOT

Daily Press columnist David Teel is one of 71 reporters nationwide voting on this season's Associated Press college football poll. Here is his preseason ballot:

1. Nebraska

2. Florida State

3. Michigan

4. Alabama

5. Wisconsin

6. Georgia

7. Florida

8. Kansas State

9. Virginia Tech

10. Miami

11. Texas

12. Purdue

13. Tennessee

14. Illinois

15. Washington

16. Mississippi

17. Colorado

18. Oklahoma

19. Southern Cal

20. Ohio State

21. Texas Christian

22. Clemson

23. Penn State

24. Auburn

25. Southern Miss

AP POLL

The Top 25 teams in The Associated Press preseason college football poll with 1999 records (the complete poll, with total points and first- place votes, appears on B2):

The Top 25 teams in The Associated Press preseason college football poll, with first-place votes in parentheses, 1999 records, total points based on 25 points for a first place vote through one point for a 25th place vote and ranking in the 1999 final poll: