Gold Trends.Net, LLC. Our Free Bloghttp://www.goldtrends.net/
Gold Trends.Net, LLC. blog postsGold Trends.Net, LLC.Wild Apricot - membership management software and moreenWed, 21 Feb 2018 20:49:29 GMTWed, 21 Feb 2018 20:49:29 GMTThu, 18 Jan 2018 22:28:12 GMTGold approaching an important long term indicator<p>GOLD IN THE 21st CENTURY</p>
<p>In order to verify the importance of the 1364 area, we have one other LONG TERM TREND INDICATOR and that is the FIBONACCI 89 month moving average. We’ve used and shown this chart before.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2018/January/Gol89MonMovAve18Jan2018.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>When gold is above the 89 month moving average, the long term trend is bullish. When it’s below the average, the trend is bearish. Look how price has been rejected the last three times we hit the moving average. Note how the moving average is at 1366. When we remove all opinion and crunch the numbers it tells us that ODDS FAVOR the long term trend UP in gold will only resume once we close above 1366 on a monthly basis. This hurdle has to be removed for us to say with evidence that the long term trend up in gold has resumed. Until then, we cannot rule out a final plunge lower.</p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>When we remove all opinion and just crunch the numbers, in order to say the long term trend of gold is up (and to be able to back it up) would be to have price above the FIBONACCI 89 month moving average as support &amp; not resistance.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5690396
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5690396Bill DowneyThu, 07 Dec 2017 19:15:53 GMTSample of GoldTrends Updates And Trade Recommendations<div>
<strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong>
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<font face="Verdana"><strong><em><font color="#FF0033"><strong>A Signal Trade&nbsp;</strong></font></em><em><font color="#FF0033"><strong>has occurred on&nbsp;</strong></font></em><em><font color="#FF0033"><strong>GoldTrends.Net</strong></font></em></strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">With the NFP report on Friday (tomorrow) and gold just remaining weak, I decided to have another look at the situation.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Let's look at a weekly chart</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Here we see the potential to trade down the black dotted downtrend line near 1238.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">From a fibonacci standpoint we show that the 61.8% level has been broken.&nbsp; Often prices will move to the 78.6% area.&nbsp; It just so happens that price area is 1237.90&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">While it is still possible for gold to bottom near 1247,&nbsp; my stop is right near the 78% retracement.&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">With NFP and FED FOMC meeting next week,&nbsp; I still can't eliminate even 1204 and 1222.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The 1237 area is only 15 bucks away and that can be child's play during NFP.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">I'm going to cancel my current order and&nbsp; replace my buy to 1238.80 spot.&nbsp; Silver stays the same for now.</font>
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NEW ORDER BELOW --- REPLACES OLD&nbsp;&nbsp;
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<strong>GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE<br></strong><strong>==================================================</strong><br>
Buy 1 Contract gold 1238.80 spot</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Stop loss 1231.80&nbsp; -- risk $7 dollars per ounce</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">No target yet<br>
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YTD = Gain $ 141.50 per ounce<br>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Buy 1 silver contract 15.35 spot</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Stop loss 14.79&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">No target yet</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">YTD = Gain $4.73 per ounce</font>
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<font face="Verdana"><font size="2"><strong>&nbsp;Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet</strong> (no period)<br>
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<font size="2"><strong>Disclaimer</strong></font><br>
<font size="1" style="font-size: small;"><em>The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.&nbsp; The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.&nbsp; On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.</em></font></font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5619589
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5619589Bill DowneyThu, 07 Dec 2017 13:41:12 GMTSample of GoldTrends Updates and Trade Recommendations<div>
<strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The main line of support seems to lie in the 1222-1246 area in gold.&nbsp; It's the 2011 downtrend line.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">That 1249.95 area is where the control boys might be trying to take out&nbsp; ?</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Blue cycle at the turn point as well</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Odds also favor a medium term buy point is near set up as well&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">What about Risk ?</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">This is a medium term move.&nbsp; &nbsp;I can't eliminate a move to 1200-1222 on the big picture for this low.&nbsp; Keep that in mind.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">NFP REPORT ON FRIDAY AND FED FOMC MEETING NEXT WEEK.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Summary</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Odds favor an important low between Dec 3rd - Jan 3rd.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">There are no absolutes,&nbsp; only odds.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">I buy gold at 1247 spot and silver at 15.35.&nbsp; Orders are below</font>
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<strong>GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE<br></strong><strong>==================================================</strong><br>
Buy 1 contract gold 1247 spot</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">No target yet</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Stop loss sell point = 1235 spot (for now)<br>
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YTD Gain = $141.50 per ounce<br>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Buy 1 contract silver 15.35 spot</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">No target yet</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Stop loss sell point 14.80 spot</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">YTD Gain = $4.73 per ounce</font>
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<font face="Verdana"><font size="2"><strong>&nbsp;Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet</strong> (no period)<br>
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<font size="2"><strong>Disclaimer</strong></font><br>
<font size="1" style="font-size: small;"><em>The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.&nbsp; The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.&nbsp; On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.</em></font></font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5616540
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5616540Bill DowneyMon, 20 Nov 2017 17:04:52 GMTGold and the short term outlook<p data-waedittimecounter="814090"><font face="Times New Roman"><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">At the moment,&nbsp; odds (not absolutes) favor gold as putting in a high on our cycles chart.&nbsp; &nbsp; The next blue cycle is Due Dec 3rd - plus or minus 72 hours (which happens to be the 2 year anniversary of the low at 1045 for this bear market).&nbsp; &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/November/GolCyc18Nov2017.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">Because of the tightness of the range, even though it's not the odds,&nbsp; it is not impossible that the chart could be interpreted like the one below.&nbsp; It is NOT the odds favored,&nbsp; but it can't be ruled out yet.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">What would favor this scenario.&nbsp; &nbsp;A close above 1297-1308.&nbsp; A close above 1308 will favor higher prices into Dec 3rd.&nbsp; &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/November/GolCycInv18Nov2017.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">There are many opinions in the market.&nbsp; &nbsp;But in the end,&nbsp; the market offers ODDS, and not absolutes.</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">The red cycle window closes after trade on Tuesday. Any new closing high above 1300 after Wednesday, should be a warning sign and any close above 1308 will favor higher into Dec 3rd.&nbsp; &nbsp;Otherwise, favor a the top is in and lower from here.</font></p>
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<p><font color="#222222" face="Times New Roman">First support comes in around 1277.&nbsp; &nbsp; There should be some support at 1268-1272 and at 1261-1265.&nbsp; &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font color="#222222" face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/November/Gol2Hr20Nov2017.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
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<p><font color="#222222" face="Times New Roman">Finally,&nbsp; the choppy overlapping structure of what has happened in November favors the downside still being in charge since the September high at 1362.&nbsp; &nbsp;Only a close above 1297-1308 would change things on the short term.</font></p>
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<strong>GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE<br></strong><strong>==================================================</strong><br>
no current trade</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">YTD = Gain $ 141.50 per oz<br>
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SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE<br>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">no current trade</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">YTD = Gain $ 4.34</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222"><strong>&nbsp;Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet</strong>&nbsp;(no period)<br>
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<strong>Disclaimer</strong><br>
<em>The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.&nbsp; The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.&nbsp; On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.</em></font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5594718
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5594718Bill DowneyMon, 30 Oct 2017 19:08:51 GMTMonthly gold cycle coming due at end of week<p>Cycles</p>
<p>Gold is getting its pullback into the next Blue cycle low due Nov 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means a low later this week or early next week. With the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday and the NFP report being out Friday, odds favor the lows will occur the 2nd half of this week or early next week. Either way, a blue cycle low favors bullish for gold in November.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/September/GolCyc30Oct2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>Odds favor the downtrend remains in play going into Nov 4th (+/- 72 hours). Thus the gold window opens on Tuesday. Don’t forget the NFP report on Friday and the FED FOMC on Tuesday &amp; Wednesday.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5455678
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5455678Bill DowneySat, 30 Sep 2017 13:07:46 GMTGold cycles suggesting an October low ?<p><br></p>
<p>Gold Cycles</p>
<p>On the chart below we see how the blue cycles have picked the lows when gold became bullish and the highs when gold became bearish on the intermediate term. The next blue gold cycle is October 5th (plus or minus 72 hours). A blue cycle low would have the odds favor a gold bottom and a return to a BULLISH cycle posture on the intermediate term. Odds favor either 1272-1282 or 1247-1262 as the two places most likely to bottom on this gold pullback ideally on Oct 5th (plus or minus 72 hours).</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/September/GolCycBlueBullish28Sep2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>What I don’t want to see in cycles</strong></p>
<p>Because we have hit important support near 1280, it is not out of the question for gold to begin a bounce here that leads to 1298-1308 or even 1322 into the blue cycle. If that happens, the intermediate term will remain bearish.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/September/GolCyc28Sep2017A.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Short Term</strong></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5288603
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5288603Bill DowneyMon, 11 Sep 2017 15:01:56 GMTShort term cycles suggest a pullback for gold into Sept 20th (+/- 72 hours)<p>Cycles</p>
<p>Our last update on the website discussed:</p>
<p>Odds favor a pullback or sideways action towards the next coming blue cycle on Sept 6th (plus or minus 72 hours). But a close above 1298 will favor higher into Sept 6th.</p>
<p>We got our close above 1298 on August 28th and indeed gold moved higher into Sept 6th.</p>
<p>Odds favor that a pullback into Sept 20th (plus/Minus 72 hours) is underway. From there gold should begin another short term rally into early October. However, with a Blue Cycle high we should be cautious that a more prolonged correction in gold could take place.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/September/GolCyc11Sep2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5074280
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5074280Bill DowneyWed, 23 Aug 2017 17:08:05 GMTGold and the long term price points<p>Long Term TREND – Moving Averages (Blue 1212-Red 1213 = NEUTRAL</p>
<p>Blue Average must cross above Red for FULL BULLISH. Averages are within 1 dollar of each other. Long term trend near flipping BULLISH.</p>
<p>Long Term Observations</p>
<p>Gold tested the moving averages at 1209-1214 in July. It got as low as 1204 but closed the week above both averages keeping the long term trend neutral. We discussed a close below 1205 would not be good but gold held and has now rallied back to the 2011 downtrend line. It runs in the 1272-1298 zone area. The biggest resistance is 1272-1288 at the moment and then 1308-1322. A monthly close above these area’s would greatly increase the potential that the bear market is over. The moving averages are ready to turn bullish as well. This is yet another moment of truth for long term gold.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/July/XgldMon10Aug2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to keep a watch out for.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/July/XgldMon72MonthsBearJul2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the low so far. But with that forecast gold has to conquer the 2011 downtrend line. Until it does, I can’t rule out one more final low.</p>
<p>A monthly close above 1362 would be the highest odds favor that the BULL MARKET in gold is back on.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5044139
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/5044139Bill DowneyFri, 28 Jul 2017 12:30:11 GMTGold and the medium term chart view<p><strong>Medium Term TREND ~ NEUTRAL- (Moving averages (Red) 1229-1224 (Blue)</strong></p>
<p>We discussed last week &nbsp;with our subscribers that the potential that gold has made a summer low was possible. The test of 1205 the previous week and the bounce back above the moving averages kept the potential alive that gold can move higher from here. The key has been and remains the 2011 downtrend line. A close above 1262-1272 for 2 consecutive weeks would be a bullish turnaround factor of high degree. Price is once again knocking at the door of piercing the line.</p>
<p>As we also said on the last update, if there’s any good news, it’s that a JULY/AUG low in gold (instead of the highs we have been getting) would be more in script of a bullish set up. Now once again gold is at the line. Odds favor a close above 1262-1272 this week would have us turning bullish on the medium term trend and favor that the summer low is in place with gold moving higher the 2nd half of this year.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/July/XgldDaily26Jul2017A.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Summary - THE OVERALL bottom line for now is that the downtrend that began in 2011 is being once again tested. A close above 1272 on 2 consecutive Friday's should be enough for us to favor the downtrend line has been finally taken out.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4999742
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4999742Bill DowneyWed, 05 Jul 2017 14:44:07 GMTWhy is the price of gold going lower?<h4>Gold Weekly Report</h4>
<h5>28 Jun 2017 7:48 PM&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.goldtrends.net/Sys/PublicProfile/3433381"><font color="#000000">Bill Downey</font></a>&nbsp;(Administrator)</h5>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Why isn’t gold breaking out of its downtrend and moving higher?</strong></p>
<p>With the escalation of violence and war in the Mid-East, one would think that gold and oil would be soaring to new highs for the year. Yet the opposite is happening.</p>
<p>The truth of the matter is when gold and oil are in bull markets, these type of events spur these commodities to move much higher. But when they are in bear markets, they are not affected.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/Crude23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>The opposite case in point is the US stock market. Even though all signs point to a retraction in economic activity as well as a myriad of bearish statistics, the Dow continues to move higher.</p>
<p>It goes a long way to show just how important “sentiment” and money flow is to a market.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/DowWkly23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>So where is gold sentiment right now?</p>
<p>At the moment the producers and users of gold haven’t been this short since July 2013. Though they are not always right, they are considered the smart money and are usually on the right side of the market. This is suggestive that gold should break under this week’s low of at some point in July. The next lower target for gold will be 1231. Only a move above 1262 would change that outlook.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/CotProducersAndUsers23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>As far as the trade side, the users and producers (smart money) remain on the short side of the trade. They are not always right, but enough that odds favor the downtrend that started when gold reached 1298 is still in effect.</p>
<p>As far as the numbers go, we can see that the large traders are long 2 to 1 and the commercials are holding the short side.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/Cot23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>In addition to the smart money being net short, inflation statistics have taken a spike down recently and that doesn’t help the price of gold.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/InflationGuage23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>While the cost of living continues to move higher, it is important to note that it is a mainly a result of rising government taxes, services and excise. And even though we see rising costs from producers and companies, it is mostly cost passed on from the ever rising cost of government regulations on industry.</p>
<p>Believe it or not, we are actually in a deflationary spiral since 2008. Had the central banks not initiated the QE (quantitive easing) programs the global economies would have collapsed.</p>
<p>A great example of deflationary trends is this flyer from Radio Shack. It shows how much the cost of technology has collapsed.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/DeflationRadioShack.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>But it’s not just technology.</p>
<p>The core of inflation lies in raw commodity prices. While everyone thinks that raw commodity prices have been rising for their entire lives, they are 100% wrong. The chart below shows that raw commodity prices have collapsed to levels not seen since 1976. The reason that the hyperinflation bugs have gotten it wrong is because they look at the COST OF LIVING and not INFLATION due to raw commodity price.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/CRB1976To2014.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The point is this. For those of us who follow gold this chart is most important because it is a very rare event that gold rises without raw commodities doing the same. That rare event is when there is a LOSS OF CONFIDENCE in government or the financial system. And while many of us have already lost that confidence, it is only when the GENERAL PUBLIC make this realization that PANIC ensues. Odds favor that loss of confidence will occur between 2018-2022. Until then, commodities in general will have to stop falling if gold is to reverse the downtrend we’ve been in since 2011. As a side note, this chart only covers up to 2014. But the trend since then has not reversed. The CRB index is currently trading at 167 so this chart remains valid.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term – Bearish (Moving Averages = 120.33 – 120.56)</strong></p>
<p>Last week we listed the best chance of producing a short term low at (115.50 &amp; 117.50) for the coming week. The low turned out to be 118.15</p>
<p>Only a close above 121.50 would negate this short term outlook and suggest the short term lows are in place. Resistance is that descending green downtrend line and support is at the horizontal white lines between 115 and 117. Until then it’s a sideways market without real trend.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/Gld28July2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Medium Term TREND ~ NEUTRAL- (Moving averages (Red) 1233-1226 (Blue)</strong></p>
<p>The big news in June is that gold exceeded the 2011 downtrend line. But as we stated last update, we needed a WEEKLY close above 1285 to confirm. That did not occur and gold since drifted back to the 1250 area.</p>
<p>THE OVERALL bottom line for now is that the downtrend that began in 2011 remains (at the moment) in force.</p>
<p>As long as gold doesn’t close below 1222 on a weekly and monthly basis, the chance for gold to move higher remains in place. With that said, the blue moving average (1226) remains below the red (1233) and that leaves the medium term trend neutral at the moment.</p>
<p>The best medium term read at the moment is gold is not quite ready for prime time yet. A MONTHLY CLOSE below 1206 could open the door to another year where gold’s first half year rally turns into a 2nd half selloff.</p>
<p>The best scenario to look for is if gold can pull back into the middle to end of July without closing below 1200. That would be suggestive that a 2nd half rally is being setup in gold.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/XgldWkly23Jun2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Long Term TREND</strong></p>
<p>New Long Term Observation</p>
<p>From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to to keep a watch out for.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/GolMon28Jun2107.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Current Long Term Situation</p>
<p>NEUTRAL– (Moving Averages 1208-1214)</p>
<p>As long as monthly closes are above 1195-1205 the long term trend is neutral and a monthly close above 1322-1338 will favor that the trend moves to bullish on Long Term.</p>
<p>The 2015 low bear market low so far at 1045. The quarterly long term chart we published a year ago shows “one” of the reasons we felt Dec 2015-March 2016 would be the turning point for this bull market. The next clue we need for confirmation would be a quarterly close above 1438-1488.</p>
<p>The rally into July 2016 was the first of 5 waves. The correction into December was the 2nd wave lower. We estimated in November either 1172-1182 or 1072-1122 (weekly closing basis) as the two target price ranges that favored where the price low should take place. So far the low was 1122 during December and</p>
<p>The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the the odds favor the July correction complete.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/GolMon28Jun2107.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>The correction since July 2016</p>
<p>As described in previous reports since August, our analysis has favored the current correction that began in July to end in the November 2016 to January 2017 time frame. How that TURN looks on its pattern will give evidence if it’s just going to be a bounce like we saw in the first half of 2016 or more. In our (Jan 6th) update, the forecast favored the turn has been underway since Dec 21st. In order to CONFIRM THE TURN, GOLD NEEDS to now take out the 2011 downtrend line. A monthly close above 1322 would favor 1365-1438.</p>
<p>Long Term Continued</p>
<p>The BLUE average (1209) has to get above the RED average (1216) and price has to be above both averages on two monthly closes for the LONG TERM trend to turn Bullish.</p>
<p>Last week we reported that the MAY 2017 in gold has tested the moving averages and odds favored a bounce from that area. So far so good.</p>
<p>BOTTOM LINE</p>
<p>We favor the low was made in 2015 and a break above the 2011 downtrend line and (1308-1322) favors a test of 1365-1438 next.</p>
<p>But until we take out the 2011 downtrend line on a monthly closing basis, gold is still technically trapped inside a downtrend channel (and a wedge) on the chart. We’re at the BREAK POINT NOW as we decide who controls the market. This is a most important price point in gold (1308-1322)</p>
<p><strong>Gold Stocks</strong></p>
<p>Moving Averages (blue) 22.64 – 22.71 (Red) - intermediate term trend = BEARISH.</p>
<p>Short Term</p>
<p>On the last update, I discussed that odds favored the pullback would continue until we reached the support zone of 19.80-21.50. Since then, the low has been 21.60. The question becomes is that enough?</p>
<p>Seasonal charts show that gold stocks most often make their lows in July. While every year is not the same, at the moment, odds favor the low in gold stocks will occur in July.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/SeasonalGoldStocks.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Going to the GDX chart</p>
<p>Until we breach that dotted gold trend line, I remain cautious. Gold stocks are best described at the moment as sideways without a defined trend.</p>
<p>Resistance is now at 24 and at 25.50 and support remains 19.80-21.50.</p>
<p>We need to plow above that green resistance line (and the dotted gold) to change the situation to bullish on gold stocks.</p>
<p>Short term prices are in a sideways trend until one of the lines is taken out.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/Gdx23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Interest Rates – Medium Term = NEUTRAL ON RATES</strong></p>
<p>MOVING AVERAGE BLUE 23.46 – Red 22.57</p>
<p>Long Term</p>
<p>As long as price remains above the 1981 downtrend line, the long term low for interest rates has taken place in our lifetime.</p>
<p>Rates rise either due to GLOBAL GROWTH &amp; CONFIDENCE, or GLOBAL FEAR due to POLITICAL &amp; ECONOMIC &amp; SOCIAL UPHEAVAL.</p>
<p>One or all have a chance to develop from now into 2018.</p>
<p>As for gold, it is our analysis that gold goes up during dramatic shifts in interest rates.</p>
<p>On a shorter term basis, even with the Fed raising rates two weeks ago, rates continue to pullback since the highs. Support is the two green dual trend lines. Odds favor one of these two lines will provide the pullback low in rates this summer.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/Tnx23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>although there is a feedback loop between gross market rates and Fed activity, most of the time the Fed is simply following the lead of the T-bill rate. That is fairly obvious when looking at a comparison chart. Every rate hike in the current cycle was preceded by a surge in the three-month T-bill discount rate from below to above the effective FF rate.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/3MonthTbillsJune2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>US Dollar – Long Term = arriving at key 93-96 area on the index</strong></p>
<p>The dollar remains in our forecasted correction that we suggested would develop from the Fed Liquidity Panic Line. That correction remains in play.</p>
<p>Longer term trends are still up (at the moment) but we continue to say odds favor the control boyz are trying to reverse the trend of the USD back down. It has now arrived at the first critical long term area on the chart.</p>
<p>The USD is testing the first of two lines on the chart that provides the first important support points. Odds favor that one of these two lines is where the next dollar bounce will begin at (in this time frame). With price arriving at the long term moving averages (93-96) and where support line occurs, odds do favor the USD will make a low in this 93-96 area and attempt to stage a rebound.</p>
<p>This wave structure, if it develops, could spur an overall rebound into early-Sept. 2017.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/Dxy028Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Stocks</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bullish</p>
<p>Moving Averages 19850-19450</p>
<p>The long term trend in stocks remains relentless since the Global Central Bankers Fed 19 Trillion Dollars into the SYSTEM in 2009 and brought the cost of borrowing money to zero. However, as we`ve discussed in the previous updates, the 21K level in the Dow has been our target since the end of November when we took out that white line near 19000 on the Dow. This upper line represents extreme resistance. Price has yet to exceed that resistance line. And that’s what it comes down to. The line is now at 21880.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/DowWkly23Jun2017.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Bottom line</p>
<p>The stock market remains in a very steep uptrend channel since 2009. As long as it remains in the channel, the trend remains up. Odds favor price will correct from the top channel line to the support line at some point as it has done since 2009. Was the high in March 2017 close enough to the resistance line or does it kiss it one more time?</p>
<p>The uncertainty that is growing from a social, political and thus economic standpoint is staggering. The only thing that has most likely kept money flowing in is that a lot of the rest of the world is in worse shape. The trend is still up, but so is risk.</p>
<p><strong>Gold Bottom line</strong></p>
<p><strong>short term</strong></p>
<p><strong>odds favor a low near July 8th (plus or minus 72 hours) and then a bounce into the week of the 23rd of July</strong></p>
<p><strong>Medium Term</strong></p>
<p><strong>Odds favor July/August for a low</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term</strong></p>
<p><strong>Odds favor the gold bull market will resume when we take out the 2011 downtrend line and a monthly close above 1322 &amp; 1362. &nbsp; First we have to take out the downtrend line on a monthly closing basis.</strong></p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/June/XgldWkly23Jun2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4933634
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4933634Bill DowneyWed, 07 Jun 2017 18:31:49 GMTGold short term cycles<p><strong><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">Cycle Inversion</font></strong></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">WE got our close last week above 1272 and that was the point we favored a cycle inversion would occur and a continued rally towards June 9<sup>th</sup> (plus/minus 72 hours).</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">Here we are arriving at the cycle window and while the rally wasn’t as strong as I thought it could be, we still did rally into this date.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">Odds favor we begin a pullback after this week into the next cycle date of June 23<sup>rd</sup> (plus or minus 72 hours).</font></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/May/GolCyc7Jun2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4885678
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4885678Bill DowneyMon, 01 May 2017 18:57:02 GMTGold and the 2011 downtrend line<p>GOLD</p>
<p>Medium term</p>
<p>We continue to favor our forecast from last year for a Dec 2015 or March 2016 low in gold remains valid. We were successful in calling the exact month (Dec 2015) as the gold low but now we want to see the 2011 downtrend line taken out. It’s the last downtrend line on the chart and until it gets taken out, gold can continue its pullback. We’d like to see two monthly closes above 1388 (the 2014 high) to put confidence that the next leg up in gold is underway.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/May/XgldWkly27Apr2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4794185
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4794185Bill DowneyFri, 07 Apr 2017 01:03:23 GMTGold showing a lot of Bullish Action at Key Resistance Area<p>Gold</p>
<p>Short Term – Bullish (near resistance &amp; short term cycle turn)</p>
<p>The last website subscriber update odds favored 1261-1272 as resistance and we got 1261 high since then. Support had been listed at 1230-1239 and low has been 1239.90 (spot prices). We favored lower into this time frame, on a close below 1239-1244. While we got as low as 1239, we did not close below.</p>
<p>As you can see price has been moving sideways refusing to sell off. That’s usually bullish. So is hanging around a trend line for so long. So is hanging around a moving average for so long. It’s hard for me to be anything but bullish at the moment. Especially with the short term cycle turn arriving (see cycles). The one thing however, is the downtrend line at 1261 and 1272-1275 areas are strong resistance. We plow there and odds favor the upper gold channel will be hit.</p>
<p>Watch 1261-1275 for resistance zone &amp; the dual upper channel resistance area.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/April/GolDaily6Apr2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Additional note</p>
<p>While I will look at the 50 and 200 day averages to see what everyone else is looking at - I personally watch Fibonacci 89 &amp; 233 Day Moving &nbsp;Averages. &nbsp;They do a good job defining the intermediate term trend as well as key support and resistance tests to watch.</p>
<p>Summary – Odds favor a bottom between now and early next week and a move higher into the last week of April. That`s the odds favored scenario. A close below 1222 means somethings not right with the forecast. It’s best to keep in mind that APRIL is often (not always) but often a choppy affair. The political DYNAMITE &amp; CIVIL UNREST surfacing globally is most likely the catalyst (FEAR) that gold has been waiting for.</p>
<p>There are odds in markets but no absolutes. &nbsp; The odds favor if gold takes out that downtrend line above the 233 day average, and pushes above 1275, we should see the upper channel tested.</p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>Last update favored a turn down from the red cycle of March 28th to the blue cycle due on April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours).</p>
<p>The NFP (Non Farm Payroll) comes out on Friday at 8:30 AM. It's often a turning point for gold.</p>
<p>From a cycle standpoint the ideal date is April 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that the window opens on Saturday. So for gold to turn on Friday certainly would still be in context of a turn. I say that because so far, gold has been REFUSING to do anything but go sideways. That often is a clue that gold has underlying strength.</p>
<p>Odds favor gold is just waiting for the window to turn up. I say odds, because as you know there are no absolutes. With that said, odds are high we get a turn on Friday or early next week.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/April/GolCyc5Apr2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>There is no one indicator that works all the time. &nbsp;What one looks for is something that works 75% of the time. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Thus odds favor gold makes turns up either Friday or early week and moves higher into the next red cycle due April 26th (plus or minus 72 hours) which is the next red cycle date.</p>
<p>A weekly close below 1222 anytime after next Wednesday will favor a short term cycle failure and will invalidate this short term forecast.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4720811
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4720811Bill DowneyMon, 20 Mar 2017 22:28:36 GMTGold Seasonal tendencies and cycles<p>Short term Gold&nbsp;</p>
<p>Support for the week is 1217-1225 and 1205-1213 (depending when this week’s pullback takes place). If no pullback, Resistance to beat is 1235-1240. The overall trend remains up until we take out 11955. A close below 1195 and odds favor we are wrong about the uptrend remaining in place into April/May.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/GolHrly20Mar2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>I’ve adjusted the 2017 channel to fit the price parameters. On a higher level overall, anything in between 1195-1237 is neutral zone. Whichever side gold chooses should set the pace into April/May.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/Gol8Hrs20Mar2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>The seasonal chart favors gold bottoming in March and a bounce back into April or May. While this is not the only reason, and this is an average of 20 years (1994-2014), that encompasses both bull and bear times in gold, it is something I do keep an eye on. During bear markets, gold fails to deliver in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes, even in the 1st part of the year. During Bull markets, the 2nd half of the year is where we get big moves. You can see that the Seasonal does show a bit more lower potential into next week (where we have a medium term cycle). However, seasonal charts do not EMIT PRECISE turns, but on AVERAGE. The bottom line is gold should make a low in March and then attempt a rally into April or May.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/SeasonalGoldFuturesWkOfMar23.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Short Term Continued</p>
<p>SUMMARY</p>
<p>Odds still favor the overall trend is higher into next week.</p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The last cycle turn was March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the low was within the cycle window.</p>
<p>The rotation is back to Blue cycle lows and that’s what we want to see because blue cycle lows favor gold in a bullish position. The other thing to be aware of is the medium cycle is due this week - March 20th (plus or minus 2 weeks). The previous 3 medium term cycles had gold making its low (in one case a high) just after the blue cycle. Suffice to say that gold has NOW INVERTED to a blue cycle low and we’re expecting gold to bottom last week and begin a rally attempt. So far so good but because of the medium term cycle, I can’t rule out a pullback either towards 1207-1213 or 1218-1222 this week.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/GolCyc20Mar2017.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Cycles continued</p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>Odds favor gold rallies into the next red cycle due March 28th (plus or minus 72 hours).</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4678872
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4678872Bill DowneyTue, 07 Mar 2017 19:26:20 GMTGoldTrends Subscriber Trade Signal Example<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Here is a sample of our trade signals for subscribers. &nbsp;This one was Posted March 7th 2017.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong><a title="Launch" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/EmailTracker/LinkTracker.ashx?linkAndRecipientCode=nhUwCH5QXfkwruFDNbScQx8dJtya7%2fdzN2Uj%2bPDl00uCpxmuv3QxqeW%2f%2bST25d0FIKk23shCGU7UBdBkjVP4sWClTxXBK2vETIWSgMqEn0U%3d" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.goldtrends.net/EmailTracker/LinkTracker.ashx?linkAndRecipientCode%3DnhUwCH5QXfkwruFDNbScQx8dJtya7%252fdzN2Uj%252bPDl00uCpxmuv3QxqeW%252f%252bST25d0FIKk23shCGU7UBdBkjVP4sWClTxXBK2vETIWSgMqEn0U%253d&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1489000877912000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFATeBb3SvU7tNzNec2DRHfUNDPpA"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p align="center"><br></p>
<p align="center"><font face="Verdana"><strong><em><font color="#FF0033"><strong>A Signal Trade update</strong></font></em><em><font color="#FF0033"><strong>&nbsp;on&nbsp;</strong></font></em><em><font color="#FF0033"><strong>GoldTrends.Net</strong></font></em></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">With the NFP (Non Farm Payroll) report <span data-term="goog_1595572141">on Friday</span>, and then the Fed Interest rate decision on <span data-term="goog_1595572142">March 15th</span>, there's a lot of pressure on gold being exerted by the beliefs of Wall St and Main St. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">Gold is in the process of testing the lower 2017 uptrend line which runs from 1206-1211 on the lower line. &nbsp; Gold is testing the January highs for the year as well. &nbsp; Thus the 1206-1222 area is important. &nbsp;It's the first area that could provide support. &nbsp; The other area of interest would be the 1172-1182 area where the 2013 low resides along with the END OF JANUARY LOW on the chart. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/GolDaily7Mar2017.gif" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">Cycles</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">The Ideal time to buy still looks to be next week. &nbsp; &nbsp;More important is the fact that the cycle has inverted from blue cycle highs to red cycle high and we're heading to a blue cycle low. &nbsp;THIS IS WHAT WE WANT FOR A BULLISH ROTATION. &nbsp; That's what the odds favor is going to happen. &nbsp; Just remember there are odds, &nbsp;but NO absolutes in markets. &nbsp; Odds are our best chance to find a good trade. &nbsp;One that has the best chance of making (and not losing) money. &nbsp; If you trade, &nbsp;this is all you should be searching for. &nbsp; A couple good trades per month. &nbsp;This is where the cycles give us the best odds of catching a turn. &nbsp; The next turn is <span data-term="goog_1595572143">March 13th</span> (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp; This is where odds are best for a turn. &nbsp; Not the absolute, &nbsp;but the odds. &nbsp; There are exceptions to this, &nbsp;but the cycle turns should be considered very important and one (as you can see by the chart) should be reluctant to trade against them. &nbsp;It's best when the market is in line with them. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/GolCyc7Mar2017WithTurnDate.gif" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Here are the current website orders. &nbsp; The closer we get to <span data-term="goog_1595572144">March 13th - 15th</span> the more I will adjust accordingly.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">SUMMARY&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br>
A blue cycle low in gold would be bullish. &nbsp;That's the odds. &nbsp;It would favor a rally into April and then we'll see. &nbsp;The ideal time is <span data-term="goog_1595572145">March 13th</span> (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means the cycle window opens <span data-term="goog_1595572146">March 10th</span>. &nbsp; That's less than 72 hours away. &nbsp; &nbsp;Just in time for the NFP report. &nbsp; Just keep in mind the cycle window will be open until the 16th and that means that the FED interest rates decision on <span data-term="goog_1595572147">March 15th</span> is also in the cycle window. &nbsp; So this is not going to be an EASY picking.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The ideal price is going to be either 1182 (Plus or minus ten bucks) and/or 1200 (plus or minus 10 bucks). &nbsp; It doesn't mean it can't be a lower number, &nbsp;it just means the odds are the highest at these points. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br>
<strong>==================================================</strong><br>
<strong>GOLD CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE<br></strong><strong>==================================================</strong><br>
Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1183.80</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Buy 1 Gold contract Spot 1173.80<br>
<br>
YTD = Gain $ 59.50<br>
<strong>==================================================<br>
SILVER CURRENT WEBSITE TRADE<br>
==================================================</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Buy 1 silver contract Spot if and when gold hits 1173.80 spot</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><font face="Verdana">YTD = Gain $ 1.95</font><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>&nbsp;Follow us on Twitter at @goldtrendsnet</strong> (no period)<br>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br>
<strong>Disclaimer</strong><br>
<em>The analyst intends to portray his thoughts and ideas on the subject which may be used as a tool for the reader. GoldTrends does not accept responsibility for being incorrect in its speculations on market trend or key turning points that it may discuss since they are at best a calculated analysis based on historical price observations. Do your own diligence. This is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any commodity or stock. The analyst is merely listing one of the trades for his own account and what you do with that information is entirely up to you.&nbsp; The analyst lists his trades as soon as possible but due to his style there are times he has bought or sold a position based on the PATTERNS that have been presented at the moment.&nbsp; On those occasions, be aware that you will receive information of a buy or sell point that analyst has ALREADY TAKEN FOR HIS OWN ACCOUNT. While that is not the intention, we want to make sure you know that it does happen. We are not brokers---we are traders. We DO provide trade orders we have PLACED as soon as we decide, but due to style there will be times we have already entered or exited and we make you aware of that in each update.</em></font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4653358
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4653358Bill DowneyMon, 06 Mar 2017 21:09:16 GMTGold Short Term Cycles<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle turn is March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). The February red cycle was hit right on the head.</p>
<p>Last week we said if there was no cycle inversion then resistance was the 200 day average at 1263-1272 &amp; the 2011 downtrend line. The high came in at 1263.</p>
<p>One of the 2 options laid out last week was a cycle inversion could be forming that would transform the rotation to a blue cycle low (BULLISH).</p>
<p>IF this is playing out it removes a big concern we’ve had for gold and that’s red cycle lows. Real sustained bull markets are when we see blue cycle lows.</p>
<p>While this would call for another week of pullback in gold, it would be setting up for a blue cycle low. That is the rotation we want to see when gold is in a bullish configuration.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/March/GolCyc6Mar2017WithTurnDate.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p>Cycles continued</p>
<p>In this scenario, cycles peaked here at the red cycle (Feb 27th – plus or minus 72 hours) and gold is in a pullback into the blue cycle low due March 13th (plus or minus 72 hours). From there the rally resumes higher.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4651480
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4651480Bill DowneyMon, 13 Feb 2017 18:39:31 GMTGold short term cycles<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Cycles</p>
<p>Here was the projection from January 27th in cycles for a move to the blue cycle due on Feb 10th.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/February/GolCyc13Feb2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>What now ?</p>
<p>The odds favor scenario had us looking for higher gold price and a peak last week (Feb 10th – Plus or minus 72 hours) at the blue cycle.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/February/GolCyc13Feb2017Preferred.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4607059
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4607059Bill DowneyMon, 06 Feb 2017 23:43:21 GMTGold since the 2016 Low<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>GOLD for the week of Feb 6th &nbsp;2017</strong></p>
<p>Initial Resistance (1st tier) 1245-1255 (2nd Tier) 1272-1282</p>
<p>Initial Support (1st tier) 1207-1219 (2nd Tier) 1190-1197</p>
<p>Our last update listed resistance (2nd Tier) at 1222-1232 and the high was 1225. Support was listed at 1172-1182 and the low was 1197.</p>
<p>Gold Short Term (Bullish since 1134) Goes Bearish on close below 1197</p>
<p>Resistance this week and the odds favored targets are 1245-1255 and 1272-1282.</p>
<p>&nbsp;Support 1207-1219 &amp; 1192-1197. The Trend is up. Close below 1192-1197 puts short term bearish. &nbsp; There's minor resistance at the 1235-1238 area at the red line.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/February/Gol8Hr6Feb2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Pivot is the 1218-1222.</p>
<p>&nbsp;As long as we’re above that, we’re heading for the resistance areas. There’s a minor resistance near 1235-1238 we need to get above (at the red line). &nbsp;The trend remains up into this week &amp; then we'll see.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4594739
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4594739Bill DowneyThu, 12 Jan 2017 18:54:37 GMTGold and the monthly moving averages<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Report</strong></p>
<p><strong>Jan 13 2017</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term TREND – bearish– (Moving Averages 1214-1222)</strong></p>
<p><strong>The correction since July 2016</strong></p>
<p>As described in previous reports since August, our analysis has favored this current correction that began in July should end in the November 2016 to January 2017 time frame. How that TURN looks on its pattern will give evidence if it’s just going to be a bounce like we saw in the first half of this year. In the last update, our outlook was we favored the turn has been underway since Dec 21st. As long as we remain above 1110-1122, favor the correction from July is complete and a move higher is beginning.</p>
<p><strong>The 2015 low</strong></p>
<p>The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the bear market low so far at 1045. Odds still favor it as the low, but until we get above the 2011 downtrend line and the 2014 high of 1388, we can’t eliminate this current correction won’t break that low. We had estimated in November either 1172-1182 or 1072-1122 (weekly closing basis) as the two target price ranges that favor where the price low takes place. So far gold has reached 1122 as a low during December.</p>
<p>If we bottomed at 1072-1122, then gold is favored to move higher into mid-February/Late March. Then we’ll see what the pattern looks like. If gold closes below 1110-1122 on a monthly basis, odds favor the correction hasn’t ended. For now, our outlook for (Nov 2016-Jan 2017) to favor where the low from last July takes place looks to be in play.</p>
<p><strong>The current bearish trend reading</strong></p>
<p>The moving averages are at (1214-1222) If gold closes above 1222 for two consecutive monthly closes the trend will be upgraded to Neutral.</p>
<p>NOTE: GOLD IS TESTING JUST UNDER 1241-1222 as of this report. We should favor that 1214-1222 is strong MONTHLY RESISTANCE. A January &amp; February close above 1222 upgrades the long term trend from Bearish to NEUTRAL. Note also the December low touched the long term uptrend lines and a good bounce has developed. This also is encouraging that gold could be making a HIGHER LOW than 2015’s. If 1110-1122 holds (the low is 1122) then the upside could get interesting later this year. Watch the moving averages. If we get above them, then the 2011 downtrend line will be the next long term test of significance for gold.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2017/January/XgldMonLongTermMovingAverages13Jan2017.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>On the upside (and the moving averages).</strong></p>
<p>The Blue average (1214) must move back above red average (1222) and price must be above both averages on TWO monthly closes to turn the long term TREND back to bullish. The RED BEAR AVERAGE is only 8 dollars above the BLUE BULLISH AVERAGE. The BLUE average has to get above the RED average and price has to be above both averages on two monthly closes for the LONG TERM trend to turn Bullish. In addition, price has to close back above the 2011 downtrend line (1272-1308) and the 89 month moving average 1337 and the 2013 price high of 1388 for gold to signal that the long term odds have turned and the gold correction from 2011 is over and a new bull market leg going towards 2300-5000 is underway.</p>
<p>Finally, it still takes two monthly closes above the triple green momentum lines at 1488-1530 to confirm the long term bull market UPTREND OF MOMENTUM has resumed. A yearly close above the long term red line on the weekly/monthly chart above 1600 would favor a move to 1794-1925. A yearly close above 1922 would favor a move to the 2300-2500 area.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom line</strong> – The 2011 downtrend (Bear) channel remains in play. January is the odds current target time for low but it’s possible we saw it in December at 1122. If we close above the moving averages in January (1211-1222) then a test of the 2011 downtrend line should take place this quarter. A monthly close below 1110 cancels the above outlook. Gold needs to close above 1180 in January as well to keep the upside going into Feb/March.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4544418
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4544418Bill DowneyMon, 19 Dec 2016 03:38:03 GMTShort Term Gold cycles rotating back to bullish<p><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></p>
<p>We discussed on our website Gold Report last week that the price move to the next cycle turn looked weak and that the potential for a cycle inversion (a low last week on the blue cycle) was a potential. We also said that a close below 1152 would favor a move towards 1122. Last week’s spot low in gold was 1122 !!!</p>
<p>Our discussion was if gold made a low last week, it was possible that “THE CORRECTION” from July could be over. Gold made a low.</p>
<p>The chart below shows what the situation looks like. We spent some time this weekend relooking at all of 2016. Blue cycle lows favor a bullish TREND. As you can see, gold rallied into August where it made a blue cycle inversion HIGH. Blue cycle highs favor a bearish TREND.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/December/GolCyc18Dec2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles Continued</strong></p>
<p>Now gold looks to have done another cycle inversion to a BLUE cycle low = Bullish.</p>
<p>Thus its possible that gold is bottoming and completing the correction that began in July. Just because it’s a blue cycle low doesn’t mean gold can’t go under 1122. But it does mean the odds favor gold is going to stop going down and the end of the correction could be ending. As long as gold going forward continues to make blue cycle lows, the odds will favor higher. The next cycle turn is Dec 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Odds favor gold should begin a bounce into year end. However, volume is going to be real light as we enter the week before Christmas. That means it is not out of the question for gold to continue lower again into another RED CYCLE low. A close below 1113 spot gold would favor it. THAT’s THE SPOT TO WATCH. If we close below there, odds will favor another drop into the 29th towards 1072-1083.</p>
<p>If gold sells off again this week look for 1113-1122 as first support and 1072-1083.</p>
<p>If gold has made a blue cycle low resistance this coming week will be 1144-1152 and 1162-1172 and gold should remain in this bounce into the 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Then we’ll see if the pattern is bullish looking.</p>
<p>Summary - We still can’t rule out a final low in January but odds favor gold is going to bounce into month’s end, and then we’ll see.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4466110
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4466110Bill DowneyThu, 01 Dec 2016 23:30:31 GMTGold cycles and sentiment figures favor a gold bounce (Dec/Jan)<p>Gold Cycles</p>
<p>We favored gold to move higher to month end due to cycles. However we stated that any close below 1199 favored a cycle inversion/rotation. And cycles did inverted after the 1199 breach and they have rotated back to Red Cycle lows.</p>
<p>Our long term experience is that blue cycle lows are bullish for price and red Cycle lows produce bounces, but lower prices overall. In other words, a bear trend. One of the FEW exceptions I’ve ever seen was the May 31st low of this year at 1199. There are odds in markets, but there are no absolutes.</p>
<p>The chart below shows what the situation looks like. Odds favor gold makes a low between today and Monday from where a two week bounce should take place and then we’ll see. A close below 1152-1162 will favor a move to 1122 first.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/GolCyc1Dec2016Inv.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles Continued</strong></p>
<p>The intermediate and medium term cycles are also looking for a turn point here. Last year’s low was about a month early on the Bradley Siderograph. Odds favor the intermediate term is getting ready to make a low between now and January.<br>
<br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/BradleyGold26Nov2016Resized.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Sentiment</strong></p>
<p>Sentiment in gold is reaching an extreme point where a trend change attempt also seems close by.</p>
<p>While not a MEASURE in itself of Sentiment, the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on Point &amp; Figure buy signals within an index. This gold indicator is flashing an extreme reading and is yet another indicator to watch. It needs to turn UP in order to add to the potential turn point arriving in gold.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/BPGEMGoldStockSentiment29Nov2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0" width="698" height="466" style="height: 466px;"><br></p>
<p><strong>Intermediate term using ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold ETF GLD– Moving Averages 116-118 (Bearish)</strong></p>
<p>Our last update had the intermediate term in bearish mode and while at the 114 area, we stated any NEW LOW (this week) would lead to a test of the lower support line near the 112 area and gold could shed 50 dollars. That’s about what we’ve gotten in gold.</p>
<p>As you can see by the chart, GLD has fallen below our latest support line and now needs a close back above it on Friday to not trigger yet another level lower. If gold closes below 1062</p>
<p>Resistance is now at 116-118 and at the 121-122 area. Support is 112 ON FRIDAY CLOSE BASIS. A close below 110 in GLD and price would trace down to the 104-106.50 where that support line resides.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/Gld1Dec2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Summary – The trend remains bearish (as it was the last update) but a short term low is due in cycles. ANY GOLD CLOSE BELOW 1062 could delay the cycle. What we want to see is a close back above that trend line at 113 that GLD just failed at. If that develops, then a bounce to the next resistance line at 115-116 will be favored for next week. Either way, odds favor it comes down to the NFP report on Friday morning as to whether GLD can hold and close back at the line we’ve highlighted at PIVOT.</p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term– Bullish</strong></p>
<p>Moving Averages 1287-1287 (NEUTRAL)</p>
<p>Our last update went from medium term bullish to Neutral and since that trend change at around 1272, gold has tanked. Price remains in NEUTRAL mode but with the red moving average on the verge of crossing above blue on this weeks close means any CLOSE BELOW 1262 GOLD next week means the trend goes back to bearish and will target 1083-1129 as the next support.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/XgldWkly1Dec2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Summary – As we’ve said since July on our website and on Twitter---UNTIL GOLD CONQUERS the 2011 downtrend line, the medium term correction can continue even into year end and the BULL MARKET TURN from 2015 remains UNCONFIRMED. Its reality right now and we need to understand that its stronger evidence than just someone’s opinion.</p>
<p>Medium term Cycle lows are favored in the November to January period, so we’re entering that time zone. Once this cycle low is in place, 2017 still looks higher for gold. From a medium term perspective, odds favor the LOW for this correction won’t be complete until we reach support lines in the 1083-1129. A Friday close below 1179-1180 (the 2013 low) and the doors to SUB $1000 becomes a potential.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4434680
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4434680Bill DowneyTue, 22 Nov 2016 15:23:22 GMTGold and the week of Thanksgiving<p><strong><a title="Launch" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/EmailTracker/LinkTracker.ashx?linkAndRecipientCode=nKBNV6nGq0OGyYz6%2fn6xaVlmYBxgoyFaGEJlZTctUt298swkeyun91URHV1LujpunTb%2bN7ATSSQeARxEOBhM69WVxnZpKtqyHzVNswHPyqo%3d" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.goldtrends.net/EmailTracker/LinkTracker.ashx?linkAndRecipientCode%3DnKBNV6nGq0OGyYz6%252fn6xaVlmYBxgoyFaGEJlZTctUt298swkeyun91URHV1LujpunTb%252bN7ATSSQeARxEOBhM69WVxnZpKtqyHzVNswHPyqo%253d&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1479914443402000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEeC8x_G_wQ_-1X21j_wPVSa3YKSw"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p align="center"><br></p>
<p align="center"><font color="#FF0033" face="Verdana"><strong><em>Gold for the week of Thanksgiving</em></strong></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 13px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">Key things for gold this week</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">Thanksgiving is always a tricky week in which to trade because we have options expiration and a major USA holiday (Thanksgiving) to deal with. &nbsp;In other words, the week can be heavily influenced by the control boyz. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">That doesn't mean that gold always moves lower. &nbsp;But it does mean the control boyz have a much easier time setting up the market in a manner that could be beneficial to them either immediately or down for the following week. &nbsp;Volume dries up by <span data-term="goog_488653416">Wednesday</span> on the COMEX, and its closed <span data-term="goog_488653417">Thursday</span> for Thanksgiving. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">While <span data-term="goog_488653418">Friday</span> is open, the majority of market participants (traders &amp; speculators) are for the most part absent until the following <span data-term="goog_488653419">Monday</span>. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">Since the majority of gold trading takes place in New York, that means volume is low and this is where the control boyz have much opportunity to either spike the market lower (or higher) or test support areas that is important to how they would like the market to set up. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8" style="font-size: 18px;">There have been Thanksgiving holidays where we've seen 50 to 70 dollar moves and there have been some where the price barely budges. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10" style="font-size: 18px;">Thus it's a week that should be taken in context and one that is an excellent week to not trade and go on holiday yourself. &nbsp; I cannot emphasize in words how good it is to take breaks from watching and trading markets and Thanksgiving week gives us that opportunity. &nbsp;One should take advantage of this and get away from the market for a few days if at all possible. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10" style="font-size: 18px;">Now you might say, &nbsp;what ? &nbsp;Take a few days off and miss a potentially important opportunity?</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10" style="font-size: 18px;">If you think that way you may be a lot more "addicted" to the market than you think. &nbsp;And that can be dangerous. &nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10" style="font-size: 18px;">If your a trader, rest assured that the market has always in the past (and will always in the future) give opportunities for trade set ups for those who are patient. &nbsp;If your an investor, a buyer of physical gold, it shouldn't matter not watching the market for a couple of days. &nbsp;Take advantage of this week to recharge your batteries as there are not many weeks we have this luxury. &nbsp; All work and no play---makes Jack a dull boy.&nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10" style="font-size: 18px;">For the week</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_8, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_10" style="font-size: 18px;">December gold options expire on Tuesday Nov 22nd. &nbsp;There are about 7000 put options at the 1200 strike price that expire today (thanks to Evert P. for that info). &nbsp;Thus we'll find out after today if 1200 is going to hold and just how much MOJO gold has left in it's bullish bag.</font></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222"><span style="background-color: rgb(245, 248, 250);"><font color="#292F33" face="Verdana">In addition, minutes from November's FOMC meeting will be released <span data-term="goog_488653420">on Wednesday</span> during light holiday trading due to Thanksgiving. They never miss a beat.</font></span></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">Today is the last real day of volume due to Thanksgiving holiday in USA. &nbsp;Unless the control boyz have a raid planned, gold should be quiet and remain in the 1199-1230 area for the week. &nbsp;If gold takes out 1195, look for a move to 1172-1182. &nbsp; &nbsp;The chart below shows resistance is most likely in the 1222-1230 area this week and support 1195-1205. &nbsp;If we look at last weeks action and price pattern, it was choppy and overlapping. &nbsp;It tried to make the 89 hour moving average support but when it failed, gold plunged. &nbsp;Now look at this week. &nbsp;Same choppy and overlapping pattern and at the moment trying to hold the 89 hour moving average. &nbsp;Its best to remain cautious before we get any bullish notions at the moment.&nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/GolHrly22Nov2016.gif" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222" face="Verdana">On a monthly basis, the 1222-1226 area is where the moving averages reside. &nbsp;As long as price is below that level, extreme caution is recommended. &nbsp; The last day of the month is when the moving averages come into play. &nbsp;A close below them (BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW 1200) on the last day of the month will most likely favor a test of 1095-1122.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222" face="Verdana">Right now</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222" face="Verdana">Gold tested 1201 <span data-term="goog_488653421">on Monday</span>. &nbsp;The <span data-term="goog_488653422">May 31st</span> low is 1199. &nbsp;This is currently the most important support for 2016. &nbsp;The question is this---will the control boyz allow for this area to hold or will they carve out the final STOPS to set up a test of 1172-1182? &nbsp;It's certainly their chance with the holiday and low volume scenario. &nbsp;Let's discuss 1172-1182.</font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">&nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/XgldMon17Nov2016.gif" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;">There is one more area before 1095-1122 that is important.</font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font style="font-size: 18px;"><font color="#222222" face="Verdana">While the 1200-1220 area is certainly important so is 1180. &nbsp;1180 is the 2013 low and if gold can't hold that area, then a move towards 1095-1122 will become the odds favored target in December.&nbsp;</font><br></font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222"><font color="#222222" face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222" face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/GoldLongTerm2014Low13Nov2016.gif" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222">If you're stacking physical gold the 1180 area would be a good place to add to your stack, but keeping in mind that it is not out of the question for gold to test 1095-1122. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;" color="#222222">In summary, gold remains under pressure, and we favor that the low from this correction will occur between November and January of this year. &nbsp;From this coming low, prices should move higher in 2017. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4405678
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4405678Bill DowneyFri, 18 Nov 2016 00:35:10 GMTGold Long Term Technical Chart Trend Pictire versus Opinion<p><strong>Gold Long Term– Neutral;</strong></p>
<p><strong>Moving averages (1223-1226)</strong></p>
<p>Even the long term chart is showing just how CRITICAL the 1180-1220 area (especially 1222) is for gold with BOTH Moving Averages and PRICE coming together AT THE SAME PLACE.</p>
<p>If gold ON A MONTHLY CLOSE ONLY can keep closing above 1222 and the BULLISH Blue average moves above the BEARISH Red average, (only 3 dollars separation) then the long term trend will go from NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. UNTIL then Gold remains technically Neutral. A close below 1222 on the last Day of November will warn that 1122 will be tested.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/XgldMon17Nov2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Long Term (continued</strong>)</p>
<p>The bottom line is gold must overcome the 2011 downtrend line in order to start the next leg up. Until then, the bears most likely gave their best effort here to get gold to sell off into a good correction and they have been successful. Now the next critical test, the moving averages are here.</p>
<p>Another way of looking at it, is if this area can’t hold, the BULLS can’t say the bear market that began in gold is over. If they do say it, it is only opinion (and pride).</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4398436
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4398436Bill DowneyTue, 08 Nov 2016 15:59:52 GMTIt's D-Day in USA (Presidential Election 2016)<div class="pageTitleOuterContainer">
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<h4 class="boxHeaderTitle">Gold Election Day In USA</h4>
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<h5><span class="postedOn">08 Nov 2016 10:58 AM</span> | <span class="postedByLink"><a href="http://www.goldtrends.net/Contacts/Details/ContactTab/ContactView.aspx?contactId=4927543">Bill Downey</a></span></h5>
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<font face="Verdana"><strong>It's D-Day (Decision Day) for USA.</strong></font>
<p><font face="Verdana">Here's how gold looks right now.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Short term gold has support near 1277 (the 200 day average not shown on this chart). &nbsp;However channel support is 1266-1272. If Trump starts jumping out ahead look for 1st resistance near 1290. &nbsp; Additional resistance is the Hillary Gap from the Sunday night open at 1289-1308. &nbsp;Additional resistance is the 1322 area. &nbsp;A Trump win could be a Brexit moment. &nbsp;If I knew that they couldn't rig the election, I'd be long gold because I think Trump is way ahead. &nbsp;But if the Hillary wins, &nbsp;then look for gold to drop to one of the support area's below on the chart.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/GolHrly8Nov2016.gif" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Spot Chart</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Looking at spot gold since the low has price still within the 2016 channel. &nbsp;Support is the 200 day at 1279 (give or take a couple of bucks) and the downtrend line near 1266-1272. &nbsp;Additional support is at 1260 and then at 1250 &amp; 1211. &nbsp; Resistance is t he 1308-1315 area and 1322-1325. &nbsp;The potential for another gold Brexit type of move into next week can go either way depending on whether the USA election system gets rigged for Hillary, or whether the vote is so big for Trump that the control boyz have no choice but to give it to Trump.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/GolDaily8Nov2016.gif" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The latest red cycle high is playing out and gold has reached the 200 day average. &nbsp;On this chart, &nbsp;it shows gold below the 2016 channel based on December Futures. &nbsp; Regardless, any break below 1272 should lead towards 1255-1260. &nbsp; A full break (and Hillary win) could send gold to 1210-1222. &nbsp; The next cycle turn is due Nov 14th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;I think its going to be an important turn for gold. &nbsp;Without getting into details, I'd like to see a gold low at the blue cycle (as blue cycle lows are the bullish trend). &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Summary - &nbsp;with this election, I think its wise to stand aside on short term trades until the next blue cycle (next week) becomes evident. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/November/GolCyc8Nov2014Nov14.gif" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Summary</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">On a short term basis, its best to stand aside until the next blue cycle comes into play. &nbsp;If Trump wins, &nbsp;the blue cycle will most likely invert to a high point in the 1322-1372 area. &nbsp;If Hillary wins, &nbsp;then its 1210-1250 come into play. &nbsp; Lets see what happens and then we can make some projections for gold.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Bottom line -- gold needs to overcome the 2011 downtrend line two weeks in a row to consider a big move higher in gold.</font></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4370546
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4370546Bill DowneyFri, 21 Oct 2016 14:48:20 GMTGold, Interest Rates, & Inflation and Deflation<p data-waedittimecounter="4054121"><font face="Times New Roman"><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/"><img width="349" height="46" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><strong><font style="font-size: 24px;">NEWSLETTER ~ Oct 21 2016</font><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;"><br></font></strong><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 18px;"><br></font></font></p>
<h1><font face="Times New Roman">'Real' Negative</font></h1>
<p><font face="Times New Roman">Oct. 21, 2016&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">by: Market Anthropology</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Recently gold has led pivots in equities by ~ 4 weeks, which (if recent history continues) points to a sharp decline in stocks headed into November. To show the relative congruence of the pattern, we broke them both out below with gold's series set 4 weeks ahead of the S&amp;P 500 on the chart below. &nbsp;Of course there are no absolutes in markets, only odds. &nbsp; The message is to be cautious regarding stocks in November. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/October/GoldSpx4WeeksOct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Longer term, we suspect the primary difference is that as gold has been trading out of a cyclical low late last year, equities have been distributing across a broad top. This dynamic is expressed below by the same study - just weighted through performance, which saw gold marginally under perform the S&amp;P 500 headed into the end of 2015 and consistently outperform equities this year on the way out. From our perspective, this largely has been driven by the shift lower in real yields late last year that dis proportionally benefits assets like gold, with the next chapter largely dependent on how the Fed will handle what we suspect will be rising inflation data and how the market will receive their response with an economic expansion already quite long in the tooth. Hint, hint - difficult times ahead in many respects.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/October/GoldVsSpx4WkSpread21Oct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">With beginning signs that US inflation data set to potentially sharply over the coming months - greatly supported by favorable comparisons to last year's oil price decline, real yields are poised to challenge their respective lows from 2011. This week, we received the September CPI report that matched headline, but slightly missed core inflation expectations on a month-over-month basis. That said, distilling the data through real yields, maturities on the long end - as expressed by the 10-year real yield, are on the precipice of joining the intermediate and short end in going negative.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/October/Real10YrYields21Oct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">In other words - not exactly a rosy outlook for those Johnny-come-lately safe haven Treasury "investors" who helped push long-term yields to historic lows this year, despite US inflation data that appeared to have turned the corner in the back half of 2015. Moreover, should real yields push even further negative - which they very well could (i.e. see late 1940's and 1970's), the swath of Treasury investors adversely impacted by negative real returns would swell appreciably.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">On the flip side of the coin is gold, which at times carries a strong inverse correlation with real yields and exhibits sharply positive returns in a negative real yield market environment. &nbsp;Then the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest bearing asset like gold becomes highly attractive when underlying market psychology is often affected by a broader loss of confidence in monetary policy and/or creditors' future returns.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>(end of article)</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>Gold, Interest Rates, &amp; Inflation and Deflation&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">By Bill Downey (<a href="http://www.goldtrends.net/">www.GoldTrends.net</a>)</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">It's not quite as simple as the above article suggests.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_0, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_0" style="font-size: 18px;">First off there is an inflationary crowd and there's a deflationary crowd out there. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><font face="Times New Roman, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_0, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_0" style="font-size: 18px;">T</font><font face="Times New Roman, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_0, WaWebKitSavedSpanIndex_0" style="font-size: 18px;">he inflationary crowd and their expectations for gold had their bubble burst from 1980 to 1999 as they witnessed gold drop from 850 to 250 during a time which the money supply and the cost of living continued to rise in dramatic fashion. &nbsp;Finally in 1999 and 2001, gold bottomed near 250 and gold finally caught a bid after 911 when governments and central bankers put into high gear a global reflationary policy to avoid a global recession/depression. &nbsp;</font>&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">To resolve the conflict between both the inflationary and deflationary crowd, &nbsp;let's put this in perspective. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">The inflation that has been witnessed since 1980 has NOT BEEN A COMMODITY BASED INFLATIONARY PERIOD. &nbsp;It has been caused by Government taxation, regulation (&amp; cost associated) Gov't services, excise, and sheer size of employees and paper tape as far and deep from earth to the moon. &nbsp;So yes, the cost of living continues to rise. &nbsp; But as you can see below, &nbsp;the price of commodities (along with gold) moved lower from 1980 to 1999 and quite frankly didn't bottom until 2001. &nbsp;After 911 central bankers (with global government approval) attempted on more time to REFLATE THE GLOBE in a massive coordinated money printing orgy unseen in human history. &nbsp;And commodities and gold and real estate (and everything else) exploded higher into 2008. &nbsp; And then the bottom fell out and since then we have been in a massive deflationary spiral so acute that the commodity low of late 2015 actually touched prices going back to 1976.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/October/CrbMonOct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">This is what the deflationist crowd is focused on. &nbsp;Had it not been for QE into infinity and now a 5000 year low in interest rates, the globe would have been swept out in a deflationary collapse not seen since Rome fell and brought forth the Dark Ages. &nbsp;Yes folks, the Roman empire ended in a deflationary collapse resulting from the same thing we are going thru now. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">And yes, &nbsp;Government was responsible then and they are responsible now because the central bankers are just the ones supplying the heroin if you will (debt and fiat) allowed by governments.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">This is the reason that gold is not already at $5000 dollars per ounce. &nbsp;We are in a deflationary commodity collapse. &nbsp;Every single dollar being sucked out by global governments is ALL MONEY THAT NO LONGER IS ENTERING THE ECONOMY AND THAT IS CAUSING A MASSIVE DEFLATIONARY EVENT at a time when trillions are owed in debt.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">In simple terms, &nbsp;there is less and less money available to be spent and baby boomers are retiring at the rate of 10,000 people per day. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Hopefully I have shed some light on the fundamental situation that is going on globally.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Summary</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Debt is so prevalent that it has become almost impossible to reflate. &nbsp;The outcome of this will be a global debt default and collapse of our system of things. &nbsp;And it is getting close. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Once interest rates begin their rise it will signal the collapse will enter the waterfall portion of the cycle and it is then that gold is going to explode higher because RATES are going to explode higher. &nbsp;Not because of growth, but because of FEAR.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><font style="font-size: 18px;">We saw a demo of that when the US dollar went off the gold standard and the price of energy (oil) exploded</font> <font style="font-size: 18px;">higher. &nbsp;Contrary to what you have been brainwashed in believing....that higher interest rates are bad for gold is not true when rates rise due to FEAR and not GROWTH.&nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">And that is what is coming straight ahead. &nbsp; The chart below of the gold bull market of the 70's speaks for itself. &nbsp;Once confidence in the system is lost, Gold and Interest Rates join hands due to FEAR and NOT GROWTH. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/September/GoldVsInterestRates1971To1981.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Once rates begin to rise gold might drop some more initially, &nbsp;but it will be a fake out and gold will give us one final opportunity to buy low.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Here's what to look for that will signal the collapse;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/September/TnxMon21Oct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Here's what to look for in gold;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/October/Xgld21Oct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">Be alert, keep your eyes on the long term trend in the Gold and Interest Rate market. &nbsp;They will signal when the waterfall event really gets going.</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">And folks, the real battle for what's going on was and still is ENERGY. &nbsp; The chances of avoiding war during 2017-2018 are not good. &nbsp;The challenge for world dominance is coming to a head at the same time. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/October/WarshipsOct2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">History suggests that Solomon was given not only the greatest wealth by God, but also the greatest wisdom. &nbsp;When asked about the future of the world and its condition, he replied,&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">"There is nothing new that happens that hasn't happened. &nbsp;There is nothing new under the Sun." &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" style="font-size: 18px;">The stage is being set. &nbsp;Be prepared.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 18px;"><br></font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4317768
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4317768Bill DowneyWed, 12 Oct 2016 13:29:29 GMTGold's medium term trend takes a hit<p>Gold Medium Term– NEUTRAL/Bullish</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1254-1288 (Bullish)</p>
<p>The close below 1272 last week has gold medium term in damage control. We are below the blue moving average and just barely held the red average on the Friday close (by 1 dollar). A weekly close below 1236-1242 sets up for 1172-1212 area.</p>
<p>On the upside, we need a monthly close above the 2011 downtrend line of resistance at the 1344-1352 area. It has now been 14 weeks since the bull/bear battle of the line began. For now, they have been the victors.</p>
<p>Clearing the 2011 yellow downtrend line would have been huge but as we suggested, the rally had gone as far as could without leaving the bear market channel.</p>
<p>We continue (as we have since July) to favor a medium term pullback is in play as those are the odds. That Fibonacci 1272 area has been taken out and the moving averages are near the edge of giving way. If they do then the 1200 area (give or take 25 bucks) is the next area to watch. Overall, there isn’t LINE support under the moving averages until 1150-1172. Odds favor the medium term downtrend is not complete IF WE GET A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1236-1242.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/September/Xgld10Oct2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4302065
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4302065Bill DowneyMon, 03 Oct 2016 20:29:53 GMTA closer view of the long term gold support and resistance points<p>a closer view of the long term gold support and resistance points</p>
<p>Instead of using a 200 day or week moving average, we use a Fibonacci 233 week moving average. Look how the moving average and the 2011 downtrend line together make this the biggest resistance to gold moving forward. Additional long term resistance lies around the 1450 area of the upper black trend line. Support on the long term lies at the lower black channel line near 1220 and where the Fibonacci 89 week moving average resides as well.</p>
<p>Gold must get above the 233 week moving average and the 2011 downtrend line in order for the next leg of a gold bull market to develop. Until then, gold is still vulnerable to move lower on this long term chart (zoom in). Two monthly closes above the 2014 gold high of 1388 would pretty much insure the next leg of the bull is underway.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/September/GolWkly2Oct2016and233WkMovAve.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4288002
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4288002Bill DowneySun, 04 Sep 2016 23:15:37 GMTGold and the Medium Term Technical Condition<p>Gold Medium Term– BULLISH since Mar 11 2016 @ 1259</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1217-1263 (Bullish)</p>
<p>As long as price is above 1217-1263 the medium term remains bullish. The dual yellow line just under the averages is true support and we would have to break below those trend lines in order to go back to a medium term bearish outlook on gold. On the upside, we need a monthly close above the upper yellow line of resistance at the 1372-1388 area. It has now been 9 weeks since the bull/bear battle of the line began. So far, the bears have been able to hold it.</p>
<p>Taking the 2011 downtrend line out would be a statement.</p>
<p>The 2014 high is 1388 and there is resistance at -1422-1438 is we get above 1388. Clearing the 2011 yellow downtrend line would be huge and the rally has gone as far as it can without leaving the bear market channel.</p>
<p>If the bulls get above the 2011 downtrend line they will have control. The most non arbitrary indicator that exists is the 2011 DOWNTREND LINE. If gold is above all downtrend lines, then gold can’t be in a bear MARKET. Do you see the triple green uptrend line just above the 2011 downtrend line. That’s the momentum line from the 2005 breakout. Once gold is back above that line, it will be in high gear. In summary, until we get above the 2011 downtrend line, a medium term correction remains in play. With that said, watch 1388. If we move above it, another good move up could develop to the triple green line. Until then, we continue (as we have since July) to favor a medium term pullback is in play as those are the odds. That Fibonacci 1272 area and the moving averages are the MEDIUM TERM first and 2nd points of support for this pullback if gold loses 1298.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/September/XgldWk4Sep2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4228372
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4228372Bill DowneyThu, 18 Aug 2016 15:05:13 GMTOdds favor a 100 dollar move in gold coming soon<p>Gold Medium Term – BULLISH since Mar 11 2016 @ 1259</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1198-1243 (Bullish)</p>
<p>As long as price is above 1196-1242 the medium term remains bullish. The dual yellow line just under the averages is true support and we would have to break below those trend lines in order to go back to a medium term bearish outlook on gold. On the upside, we need a monthly close above the upper yellow line of resistance at the 1372-1388 area. It has now been 6 weeks since the bull/bear battle of the line began. So for the bears have been able to hold it-- But for how long?</p>
<p>Taking the 2011 downtrend line out would be a statement.</p>
<p>The 2014 high is 1388 and there is resistance at -1422-1438 is we get above 1388. Clearing the 2011 yellow downtrend line would be huge and the rally has gone as far as it can without leaving the bear market channel. Now we find out who’s in charge still. Trend remains up BUT CAUTIOUS HERE. If there’s to be a medium term correction, this is where the bears must try to regain control and so far they have done so these past few weeks. If the bulls get above the 2011 downtrend line they will have control. The most non arbitrary indicator that exists is the 2011 DOWNTREND LINE. If gold is above all downtrend lines, then gold can’t be in a bear MARKET. Do you see the triple green uptrend line just above the 2011 downtrend line. That’s the momentum line from the 2005 breakout. Once gold is back above that line, it will be in high gear. In summary, until we get above the 2011 downtrend line, a summer pullback potential is in play. With that said, watch 1388. If we move above it, another good move up could develop to the triple green line. Until then, we should favor a medium term pullback as those are the odds.</p>
<p>ODDS FAVOR a 100 dollar move in GOLD is going to happen at some point in the next 30 days.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/XgldWkly17Aug2016100DollarMove.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4199159
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4199159Bill DowneyMon, 08 Aug 2016 14:01:30 GMTGold and August<p>Overview</p>
<p>The most likely place for gold to peak or undergo a 2016 correction is at the 2011 downtrend line on our weekly chart. &nbsp;The bears have held the line now for 5 weeks. &nbsp;Its a time to be cautious in gold. &nbsp;A close above 1362 this week would change that idea short term. &nbsp;Otherwise, &nbsp;look for a test of 1305-1312 or the 1322-1332 area this week. &nbsp;If short term cycles play out, gold should be making its monthly low near August 18th. &nbsp;</p>
<p>It looks like a lot of gold inventory is being brought in for anticipated futures buyers who will look to take delivery. &nbsp;It's not the available category, but odds favor they will use it to settle contract deliveries.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/ComexDepositoryWarehouseRegisteredAug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>While a lot of inventory is being brought in, it's key to realize that the big boys are short. &nbsp; They don't always win, but odds favor they try another push down over the next two weeks. &nbsp;Even in bull markets, there are pullbacks where the big boyz cover shorts and then let the market run higher and then re-short. &nbsp;Wash and rinse.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/Cot6Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Long Term – Moving averages (1218-1252) neutral</strong></p>
<p>The 2011 downtrend line is the most important line for gold to overcome as it’s the last MAJOR downtrend line in the bear market. As long as gold is below this line the summer pullback can continue. There’s support in the 1250-1272 area and then 1222 on the medium term.</p>
<p>The bottom line is gold must overcome this line in order to start the next leg up. Until then, the bears will most likely give their best effort here to get gold to sell off into a good correction. Thus we need to remain cautious until we get above the 1388-1400 area.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/XgldMon1Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>US dollar ---Long Term (Bullish)</strong></p>
<p>The one thing that does concern me is the long term look of the US Dollar chart. Although the medium term has been sideways for a year and a half, the most likely scenario or we should say, the odds favor that the US dollar still has a final move up left in the rally that began in 2014. The key will be the 100-104 area. If the US Dollar gets above 104, look out.</p>
<p>If it does happen, expect a major liquidity squeeze and panic. You see, in a liquidity squeeze, the only safe place is where the DEEPEST markets (VOLUME) exist. The US dollar wins that one hands down. That’s where the money would go to park. For now the US Dollar remains in a trading range. The message is we can’t rule out the upside potential of the US dollar. There are times when it is possible for both gold and the US dollar to rally. So this doesn’t eliminate the gold story, but we need to stay on top of what the US dollar does at these levels.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/USdMon7Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></p>
<p>We got what we think was the peak last week on our cycle turn near 1360 and it looks like price is going to test 1322-1332 to start the week. If we lose 1320 then look for 1305-1312 next.</p>
<p>In summary, odds favor that gold stays in corrective mode this week. It takes a close above 1362 to change the outlook. The 1346-1355 area should be strong resistance. Let’s zoom out a bit more.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/GolHrly7Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Here’s a view of key August support. It’s a bit different but it does highlight the 1305-1312 area also. If we lose that area, then 1250-1272 comes in play. Remember, on the longer term charts, we are at the 2011 downtrend line, and that is where the deepest correction in gold for 2016 is most likely to develop from.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/Gol8Hr7Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle turn of August 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) is complete and the window is closed. The next turn date is August 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).</p>
<p>Gold has set a 1--2 month peak in the first 3--4 trading days of the month - in 2 of the last 3 &amp; 3 of the last 5 months. &nbsp;August looks like a repeat could be in play.l</p>
<p>The bottom line is we expected a turn back down into the middle of August beginning last week. It is underway. While we never can eliminate a cycle inversion, odds favor gold weakness into the next cycle turn date. There’s support in the 1300-1312 area and then 1260-1272. Odds favor if we lose 1322, gold is heading for one of those two area’s.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/GolCyc7Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>What about Silver?</strong></p>
<p>The medium term trend remains up. Goldtrends recommended a long term buy just once since 2011, and that was at 14.38 spot. Any pullbacks to 16-18 should be bought for long term appreciation.</p>
<p>Medium term resistance remains 21.34-21.58 as previously listed. Support lies at 18.75 -19.20. Silver’s latest pullback reached 19.30 and had since bounced back to above the 20 area before the Friday selloff.</p>
<p>While the trend remains up, we should be aware that the 21.34 resistance we are using is one we have often used on the long term. It is the 2008 high and is represented by the Green line we have had on our chart for a number of years. Look how important it is right now on the chart. That is where the Bull/Bear line currently resides for Silver. In other words, it’s the most likely place for a good sized silver pullback attempt. It takes a close above 21.34 to shift the longer term trend out</p>
<p>In summary the trend remains up. The key is whether silver will exceed 21.34. As long as it doesn’t, it will remain below the 2008 price high and the potential to pullback to 18 could still come in play in 2016. The 18.75-19.20 is current support. Odds favor a short term top took place last week and a pullback to mid month is the odds favored outlook at the moment.<br>
<br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/XslvWkly7Aug2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4178269
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4178269Bill DowneyThu, 21 Jul 2016 17:33:16 GMTThe Future of Gold for New Investors<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/GoldBlocks.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>The Future of Gold for New Investors</strong></p>
<p>With several significant events rocking the financial markets we look at the short and long term future of gold for new investors looking to enter the market. While the economic markets struggle to deal with the fallout of Brexit we’ll take a look at how the gold market reacted.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4086726">In a previous blog post on Gold Trends</a> we wrote before about the British European referendum saying that Brexit could give up the soft ground gold had been built upon. We went on to state that Brexit could “usher capital back to risky assets and out of gold.” On June 23 the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. How did the gold market react?</p>
<p>The good news for new investors is that the price of gold rose. <a href="http://business.financialpost.com/investing/market-moves/gold-races-to-two-year-high-as-investors-seek-refuge-from-brexit?__lsa=522a-e979">The Financial Post stated that it rose by as much as 7.8%</a> on the Friday following the referendum reaching a high of US$1,362.60 per ounce. The reason for this is that gold is seen as a safe investment and with so much uncertain speculation on the financial market, investors rushed to safe havens. The Financial Post went on to explain that history indicates that gold usually performs well in moments of low interest rates and accommodative monetary policy.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/GoldBlocks1.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>There are two different types of gold that can be invested in and buyers should be aware of the difference between gold coins and bars. Leading trade and market insight company <a href="https://www.fxcm.com/insights/gold/">FXCM states that gold coins have legal status</a> in their country of origin while bars have no legal tender status. They also state gold coins attract investors seeking simple and tangible means to invest. This is due to the fact that investors physically own the coins. In comparison, owners do not physically retain the gold bars they invest in and it is on the speculation market that investment is made. This will make the investment more risky.</p>
<p>Investors who are looking to invest in gold have several options. <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/gold-price/61682/gold-price-falls-after-strong-us-jobs-report">The Week recommends using reputable companies</a> to store physical gold. One advantage of putting your gold in a company rather than keeping it yourself is safety and insurance. Investors looking to capitalize on a gold fund can hold the gold in their pension using a global investment and management company. As stated in the previous paragraph the investment can be more risky but unlike physical gold you will earn interest.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/dollars.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>As an investor in gold it is vital to pay attention to market predictions. So far we have looked at the short-term benefits of investing in gold due to the current financial situation. However in the long term some experts predict a fall in price. <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sorry-gold-and-silver-lovers-the-partys-almost-over-2016-07-13">Market Watch advises that gold could spend the next 10- 15 years</a> in “ investment purgatory” with investors spending years trying to define the trading balance.</p>
<p>To many investors gold is a safe bet. If you are thinking of investing in gold be sure to know what type of gold you want to invest in and beware of the short term and long term benefits.</p>
<p>=========</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4148924
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4148924Bill DowneyTue, 12 Jul 2016 00:19:05 GMTGold at important channel lines on the charts<p>Lets look at the current situation;</p>
<p>Gold hasn't changed since last Wednesday. We had the PRE NFP drop to 1350 and then the POST NFP FLush 1 -- clear the stops on the downside, and Flush #2 clear the stops on the upside. Then we had a rally back to 1375 for good measure and a return to where we started on Monday. Thus nothing has changed from the NFP report as we enter Tuesday. So we do have a double top in the noted resistance we have been using 1372-1388, and that is a short term caution flag. A move above 1375 will favor a test of 1388 and that's the key number.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/NFP%20FLUSH.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>IF we push out a bit we can see the entire rally. This channel line is resistance 1372-1388. There's one other at 1410-1422. From an Elliot Wave perspective it is possible we are completing wave 5 here, but be aware, it doesn't have to be here. But the channel line does need to be respected. The nearest strong support is 1299-1308 (also 1322). The key is the upper line. IF we close above 1388 then prices will move above 1400.</p>
<p>IN summary, this is strong support that needs respect. It can be broken above 1388, but i think the odds favor sideways to lower for the short term cycle. Let's go to that chart.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/Gol8Hr11Jul2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Gold Cycles</p>
<p>Short term gold cycles inverted before Brexit and after. Double inversions are rare but the markets have become so jittery that it's to be expected. I've seen about 1/2 dozen inversions like this over the past decade. If gold can move sideways to lower into the BLUE CYCLE IT WILL BE BULLISH for gold. However if we exceed 1388 (the upper trend line) then favor higher to the 19th.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/GolCyc11Jul2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0" style="font-size: 12.8px;"><br></p>
<p>Gold Medium Term</p>
<p>Finally, gold is up against the 2011 downtrend line. This is the most important resistance in gold so a pullback from this area would not be a surprise. If gold breaks this line, then look for another strong leg up. Here too the 1388 area looks like a key point.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/July/XgldWkly11Jul2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>If the short term cycle is correct, then gold should be sideways to lower this week and then make a low next week. Above 1375-1388 means the cycle will move higher into the blue cycle.</p>
<p>Brexit is not the CAUSE of all this in markets, but it is the SPARK THAT HAS LIT THE FUSE. Expect strong volatility in markets.</p>
<p>Finally, short positions are at a record high. Their either about to really get stuffed, or win a short term victory. Let's wait and see if gold can continue lower into the blue cycle. If we get above 1375-1388 odds will favor higher to the next blue cycle.</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4124875
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4124875Bill DowneyTue, 28 Jun 2016 16:41:07 GMTGold Update Medium Term<p>Gold Medium Term - BULLISH</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1167-1192</p>
<p>As long as price is above 1167-1192 the medium term remains bullish. The dual yellow line just under the averages is true support and we would have to break below those trend lines in order to go back to a medium term bearish outlook on gold. A Monthly close below 1205 would favor a retest of the moving averages and the yellow trend line. On the upside, we need a monthly close above 1322 in order to favor a re-test of the upper yellow line of resistance near the 1375-1400 area. A monthly close above 1322 would also give us our first confirmation that the lows we targeted for Dec 2015 or March 2016 were indeed valid in our forecast as the "low" in gold. In order to say the bull market is back underway via momentum would be to see the triple green uptrend line exceeded in price and supported. That would favor a rally towards 1700.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/XgldWkly28Jun2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Another Gold medium term indicator we are seeing is gold holding below the 89 month moving average. Closing above 1322 on Thursday and Friday will favor a test of 1388 could be in the cards as it is the 2014 high.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/GOLMon25June21stCentury2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4106017
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4106017Bill DowneyMon, 20 Jun 2016 17:55:57 GMTGold short, medium, and long term<p><br></p>
<p>GOLD UPDATE&nbsp;</p>
<p>The uncertainty around the U.K. referendum should get markets moving this week. A U.K. vote to leave the European Union would be immediately disruptive to global financial markets, and the Euro will be hurt while Sterling and the US Dollar (and potentially gold, but not guarantees.</p>
<p>In fact, turbulence and division in Europe would likely drive capital meaningfully into U.S. securities and treasuries, and importantly drive the dollar sharply higher. After perhaps an initial pop in gold on the unlikely event of Brexit, gold could give up the soft ground it built up upon.</p>
<p>Odds favor that gold has begun a seasonal pullback. A close above 1322 would negate that scenario.</p>
<p>Many are banking on uncertainty and chaos causing a stock market shakeup for America along with Europe, but I'm doubtful of the severity and duration of any such blow. The only thing limiting frightened EU area capital flows into U.S. investment might be our election uncertainty and concern about the policies and statements of some of the candidates still in play. But the Brexit vote is this coming week, and our presidential election is not until November. As a result, if the citizens of the U.K. decide to leave the EU, the dollar should see immediate and sharp benefit. Riskier American assets like stocks should see benefit, if not immediately, then not before too long after the storm. Strong relative dollar gains versus the British pound and the euro would price down gold in dollar terms. The passage of time would alleviate fear, and usher capital back to risky assets and out of gold. But what if the U.K. determines to remain in the EU?</p>
<p>I believe if Brexit is voted down, the dollar and gold should each give up ground over the short-term.</p>
<p><strong>Gold and the 2016 rally</strong></p>
<p>Gold has had a great move so far in 2016 and last Thursday we reached the KEY PIVOT POINT IN GOLD (1308-1322). Gold surpassed the 2015 high at 1308 got as high as 1313. Enough selling came in to take gold down 30 dollars at one point. The key was gold did not close above 1308 or 1300 for that matter.</p>
<p>WE NEED A WEEKLY MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE 1322 in order to continue higher. Resistance will be strong from 1322-1340.</p>
<p>Support is 1265-1272 and 1249-1255 and 1205-1222. A weekly close below 1205 would do technical damage to gold and open the door to 1150-1175. The intermediate term trend remain up but cycles need to be watched. &nbsp; Odds favor perhaps another correction. &nbsp;If we close above 1322 it will negate the pullback. &nbsp; Other wise expect sideways to lower.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Lets go to the next chart.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/Gol8Hr20Jun2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600" style="width: auto;"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due June 20th (plus/minus 72 hour). Thus the window is open for a turn. That Thursday high might have been it. In addition we had a cycle inversion where gold has gone from making Red cycle highs to blue cycle highs. Gold does best when we make RED CYCLE HIGHS. Blue cycle highs warn of a pause in gold and a pullback is favored for July. When we have blue cycle highs, odds favor gold is in corrective mode so be watchful. Price can go up but it can turn on a dime. Hopefully we will get another inversion this summer when the summer is done.</p>
<p>Finally the yellow line is where the intermediate term cycles take place. While there is no guarantee a high will be put in, we should favor it until 1322 is taken out. If cycles play out, odds favor the next two weeks should be sideways to lower (with occasional bounces).</p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due Jul 11th (plus/minus 72 hours). Support is near 1220.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/GolCyc20Jun20167.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600" style="width: auto;"><br></p>
<p>Medium Term Gold</p>
<p>On a medium term basis the trend rmains up. Support is 1150-1190. Resistance is 1322-1340. The triple green line is where the MOMENTUM line is for gold. Once gold closes monthly above that triple green line, look for gold to make a major move higher.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/XGLDWKLY20JUN2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600" style="width: auto;"><br></p>
<p><strong>Long Term</strong></p>
<p>Gold has completed 4 waves on the long term (or is completing the 4th one). Wave 5 lies ahead and it should be a big one.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/GolLongTermElliot.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600" style="width: auto;"><br></p>
<p><strong>GOLD STOCKS</strong></p>
<p>The HUI gold index has completed the first wave of 5. Strong resistance lies from 250-180. Support is near 175. Gold stocks are usually weak during June and sometimes all summer. Thus it would be reasonable to expect a summer pullback. Any time gold bullion closes above 1322 on a monthly basis, then gold stocks should find another leg.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/HUIWKLY20JUN2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600" style="width: auto;"><br></p>
<p><strong>Summary</strong></p>
<p>Odds favor a gold pullback takes place in July.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom line</strong></p>
<p>Any close above 1322 on a monthly basis, will more than likely be enougjh confirmation thjat our call for a major low in gold favored either Dec ember or March. Dec came in as the low.</p>
<p>If there is a crisis like we had in 2008 ---- it still possible gold will go down but as you might know, once the crash took place and the bottom was found, gold almost TRIPLED going into 2011. I So if gold is dragged down initially, it will explode higher like in 2008.</p>
<p>The chart below shows just how dangerous things have become. &nbsp;The chart show how many times the dollar changes hand. &nbsp; Right now spending is drying up and you can imaging what that is doing to tax revenues. &nbsp;</p>
<p>A debt collapse and global depression look straight &nbsp;ahead. &nbsp; Expect Civil unrest to explode, &nbsp;and a major war as well.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/MoneyVelocityM2.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0" data-wawidth="1" width="600" style="width: auto;"></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4086726
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4086726Bill DowneyThu, 16 Jun 2016 15:11:20 GMTGold Short term price resistance area<p>Gold Short Term (Bullish)</p>
<p>Our last update indicated that if gold got thru 1272-1285 it would target 1303-1322. Today’s spot high at 1313 has gold at the center of that resistance zone. The 1313 area looks to have strong resistance today (Thursday) and might very well be where they cap it.</p>
<p>With that said, it is not impossible for gold to move to the 1322-1340 area before a short term cycle peak comes into play. Short term support is 1286-1295 and then the 1263-1272 area. In summary, the short term trend remains bullish, but the potential for a short term peak is high at 1313-1322 or at 1340. One of those two points should be where the June high takes place.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/GolHrly16Jun2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4078894
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4078894Bill DowneyFri, 10 Jun 2016 16:00:18 GMTGold Medium Term Technical Chart<p>Gold Medium Term</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1156-1176 (Bullish)</p>
<p>The medium term remains bullish in gold with support at the moving averages and the dual yellow downtrend line in the 1150-1172 area. As long as price remains above that area the medium term remains bullish. Yearly resistance is the 1303-1322 area and that is the price points gold must overcome in order for the current rally to resume. That is the KEY PRICE POINT TO KEEP FOCUSED ON in order to favor the medium term price will keep rising. A weekly close below 1205 will favor price returns to test the dual yellow downtrend lines. A weekly close above 1322 will favor gold is heading towards 1400. Until then we remain in a trading range of 1200-1300 dollar gold.</p>
<p>Another important aspect is the dotted line where the Fibonacci 38% resistance resides (Appx 1272). As you can see on the chart, this area has proved to be resistance to the current gold rally. Once gold clears that area, it will once again give potential for medium term gold to rally all the way up to the yellow downtrend line which is situated near the 1370 area.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/June/XgldWkly9Jun2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4067627
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4067627Bill DowneyWed, 01 Jun 2016 16:35:28 GMTGold<p data-waedittimecounter="282387"><font face="'Times New Roman'"><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/"><img width="349" height="46" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'"><strong>June 1 2016 &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'"><strong>NOSTALGIA NOTE: &nbsp; The Beatles "Sgt Pepper" album released 49 years ago today.<br></strong><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>What Is Holding Back GLD?</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">Jun. 1, 2016 8:30 AM ET</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">By Lior Cohen</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">Rates and the Fed</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">One of the major issues that has been holding back gold is the possible rate hike of the Fed. And after the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting the markets revised up the expectations of a possible rate hike in the near term, as indicated in the following chart.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/RateHikeProb.jpg" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">Source: Fed-watch</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">As you can see, the chances of a June rate hike have picked up from close to zero to around 30%. And on Friday Chair Yellen pointed out that a rate hike is a possibility in the coming month. For GLD, higher cash rates are likely to translate to a rise in interest rates; and long term interest rates tend to bring down the price of GLD, as I have pointed out in the past.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">Despite the hawkish minutes of the last FOMC meeting and Yellen recent remarks, the market isn't ready and the FOMC didn't lay the groundwork for a hike as it did back in 2015 for the December rate hike. Bernanke once said: Monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action; and up to the recent minutes, the FOMC didn't make it clear enough for the market that they could raise rates in June. But besides communications there is the matter of market conditions, and they aren't too favorable; if any, the U.S. economy hasn't improved by much as data show in the past couple of months: U.S. core inflation has actually come down in recent months -in case the core PCE, which the inflation indicator the Fed follows, is still well below the 2% target (in the last report the core PCE inched down to 1.6%) -- and the last NFP report showed a slower growth in jobs; the GDP for Q1 was also unimpressive - not only in terms of headline growth but also on investments. Therefore, the U.S. economy isn't better off now than it was a few months back. Finally, global economic conditions aren't much better: The Brexit still weighs on the markets and China's economy isn't out of the woods; for the Fed to raise rates right before the Brexit vote could be a poorly timed rate hike, if the British people decide the exit the EU --an event that will push up market volatility; and so far this year market volatility - one the issues that led the Fed to last year's rate hike from September to December - hasn't subsided by much.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">So why the Fed released hawkish minutes? It seems to be more a matter of bringing the market towards where the Fed is at. It also makes things simpler for the Fed to have the market convinced it aims to raise rates and then not follow through; as oppose to have the market cross off any possible rate hike in the near term.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman', serif" style="font-size: 16px;">This week's upcoming NFP report could set the stage as to whether the Fed will be more incline to raise rates in July. Currently, the market expects a gain of around 163,000 jobs - not far off the growth in jobs recorded a month back - and wages to edge up by 0.2%, month over month. If the report comes short of market expectations on both growth in jobs and wages, this could be enough to bring back up the price of GLD (ON THE SHORT TERM / SPIKE), as was the case in the past.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'">And considering this report will come before the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, this report could have much stronger impact on the direction of GLD than in the past.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'">But even if the report falls short of market expectations, which is likely to have a short term positive impact on GLD, going into the FOMC meeting on June 14-15, the gold market could still remain flat: Even though the June meeting isn't likely to result in a rate hike, the Fed could still set the groundwork for a July rate hike. And then if core inflation starts to pick up again, the labor market remains on solid ground, GB remains in the EU and market volatility slightly subsides, then the Fed will be more incline to raise rates by then. And higher interest rates are likely to keep curbing down the demand for gold.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'">In conclusion…</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'">GLD could bounce back by the end of the week if the NFP report comes short of market expectations. But even if the report shows disappointing figures, the market will still expect for a hawkish statement by the Fed. Until the FOMC meeting on June 15th, it’s a battle between the USD and gold.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'"><strong>Gold for remainder of the week by GoldTrends.</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'">Look for support in the 1205-1208 area and resistance near 1220. &nbsp; If gold breaks below 1198 then 1172 becomes the target. &nbsp;If gold holds 1205-1208 and rallies back above 1225, then higher prices to 1240-1255 would be the odds favored. &nbsp; That area marked resistance is where gold needs to conquer.</font></p>
<p><font face="'Times New Roman'"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GolDaily1June2016.jpg" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4051385
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4051385Bill DowneyThu, 26 May 2016 14:28:46 GMTGold testing May support points<p><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="349" height="46" style="width: 349px; height: 46px;" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="5">May 26 2016</font></strong></p>
<p>Gold (weekly Basis)</p>
<p>One of the things we’ve discussed on the website as to whether gold had re-entered a bull market would be its ability to move above the 2015 high at 1308 and then a weekly/monthly close above 1322. The 2016 rally stalled at 1304 and now a pullback all the way to the 1222 area has taken place. While gold could very well be setting up to take out that all important area, we must still be cautious. Those price levels remain the most significant resistance for 2Q 2016.</p>
<p>With Dollar cycles potentially making a low in early-May - and the potential for global equities to accelerate lower into late-June - at least two potential deflationary factors could amplify this volatility into mid-2016 and create plenty of wild swings in Gold.</p>
<p>On the weekly chart, gold has support in the 1172-1190 area and should gold close below the March/April lows of 1205-1209, then it is likely that gold will go test that lower band of support. Any close below 1214 will favor a test of the weekly support points. Until gold moves above 1308 and closes above 1322, the confirmation that a gold bull market has regained composure must still be in question. Until that time it is not out of the question that the metals have seen their spring highs and a volatile choppy and overlapping correction until August cannot be dismissed.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GoldWkly26May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Gold since the 2015 low</p>
<p>The first important support at 1243 gave way this week and price has reached the 2nd support area for May at 1215-1222. On the downside, a break of 1214 would favor a drop to the 1205-1209 area and then 1172-1180. On the upside, look for strong resistance now at 1243-1253 and then 1272-1282. Any close below 1222 on Friday leaves the downside open to further price erosion.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/l8Hr26May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>US Dollar</p>
<p>The other issue we`ve discussed was the seasonal aspects of the US dollar and the usually strong showing the dollar produces in May. As we can see by the chart, that is what has happened so far. Now the dollar has reached resistance in the 95.20 area and this is one spot where we must look for a potential high. In the short-term, the Dollar Index could spike up to its monthly resistance with the extreme upside target for May - at 96.13. That is just below the 50% rebound level - at 96.29. If so, it could wait until next week to reach that level.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/UsdDaily26May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Gold Cycles</p>
<p>The window for the blue cycle has closed and the next red cycle is due June 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). The 2 key support points were the lower 2015 support line and the upper 2016 line. As you can see, price was unable to hold the 1240 area and now price has returned to the 2016 upper line where it barely held support on Wednesday. The big question now is whether gold will move higher into the June 4th cycle or whether we will get an inversion and move lower into that date. A close below 1205 will warn a cycle inversion is in play and lower prices will be favored. The other thing to watch now is whether gold can get back above 1243. That should be considered the key resistance point at the moment. A failure near the 1240 area on any rebound could keep gold under pressure. That`s the next area to watch. Any close below 1205-1214 is a warning that prices can continue lower.</p>
<p>In summary, gold must hold 1205-1214 in order to get a push back up towards 1240-1250 and then we`ll see.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GolCyc26May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4040790
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4040790Bill DowneyWed, 18 May 2016 13:53:48 GMTGold Short term decision arriving for direction into June<p><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="349" height="46" style="width: 349px; height: 46px;" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="5">May 18 2016</font><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></strong><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></p>
<p>Fed minutes</p>
<p>At 2:00 p.m. ET today the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its April 26-27 meeting with investors watching for discussion on the balance of risks to the central bank's outlook. Two (non-voting) regional Fed bank presidents said yesterday that at least two interest-rate increases may be warranted this year. Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is also warning that the market may have underpriced willingness to raise rates this year, as the spread between two- and 10-year U.S. Treasuries narrows to 92 basis points. The market-implied chances of a rate hike by the July meeting have increased from 15 percent to 28 percent in the last week alone.</p>
<p>Dollar rises, commodities hit</p>
<p>The U.S. dollar is climbing ahead of the Fed minutes, with a gauge of the currency hitting a seven-week high this morning. As the greenback rises, so commodities fall, with copper and other industrial metals declining. Gold for immediate delivery dropped 0.6 percent to $1,271.93 an ounce by 5:20 a.m. ET. Oil was unchanged at $48.32 a barrel.</p>
<p>When we look at monthly closing prices, it is important to NOTE that the US Dollar closed out April right at the long term downtrend line. Since then we have bounced, but it should be clear that gold and the US Dollar are at KEY LEVELS (gold near upside breakout and dollar near downside failure). The big question is which one will win ?</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/UsdMonDowntrendChannelMAy2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>GOLD SHORT POSITIONS</p>
<p>I have been hoping a pullback near 1240 would be the preferred track going into the 21st, but I'm beginning to have my reservations as gold looks to be picked up on every move lower that is attempted.</p>
<p>This of course comes at a time when gold is heavily shorted by the commercials. Should they be wrong, gold could get the type of bounce on the above chart. If the control boyz win (again) then that changes the situation. As you can see below, they are VERY SHORT gold at the moment. They usually win, but NOT ALWAYS. Still, it beckons us to be careful.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/Cot17May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Gold Short Term</p>
<p>Gold is closing in on its decision for the next price move. As you can see by the chart, the moving averages have converged along with price at 1275 and a triangle formation is taking place. Thus it looks like 1263-1267 is 1st support for today and 1275-1277 is resistance. Let's go look at the next chart and discuss the next two week outlook.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GolHrly18May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Gold Cycles</p>
<p>The window for a short term gold cycle low is due on May 21st (plus or minus 72 hours). Thus the window for a low begins today as we are within 72 hours of May 21st. The ideal range for a low is the 1240-1260 area. The 50 day average at 1251 and the 38% retrace at 1241 is the most likely places to watch. There is also some support near 1263 to watch. In any event, gold should be making a short term low in this timeframe.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GolCyc18May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Cycle Projection</p>
<p>While we are always aware that INVERSIONS can happen, and one hasn't happened since November, the chart below shows what the odds are gold will do if the current cycle plays out. The yellow zone is the future next two weeks. While there are no guarantees, the ODDS are high for gold to move higher in this fashion if the coming cycle plays out. As we can see, it's possible that gold can bottom early before the 21st, and that is a distinct potential. Don't look for this to play out exactly in this manner but keep note that another gold move higher could be on the horizon of beginning.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GolCyc17May2016Adam.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>So what is the Key ?</p>
<p>We need a close above 1289 and really 1308 in order to favor higher towards 1322-1350. As long as we remain below the 1308 level (the 2015 high) then it is not out of the question for gold to have a cycle inversion. What would a cycle inversion look like ?</p>
<p>It would look like the chart below. Just keep in mind that the odds are only 25% but we do have to be careful at this blue cycle. I will favor that gold is going to have a strong move, and I favor the upside, but beware it can go the other way as well.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>ANY CLOSE ABOVE 1289 and I'll have to favor that the gold low for this short term cycle is in place and I will do an update.</p>
<p>SUMMARY - A good sized move should be arriving in gold. I'll favor the upside, but won't rule out a cycle inversion. Remember, the big boyz are very short. Be careful.</p>
<p>I'll update again on Wednesday if price action warrants. THE CYCLE TURN WINDOW for blue opens tomorrow and lasts until Monday.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4026813
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4026813Bill DowneyTue, 17 May 2016 14:35:08 GMTGold Long Term Technical Price Points<p>Gold Long Term (Moving Averages – 1220-1275) Neutral</p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ long term trend has moved from Bearish to Neutral as price is above the lowest average on the monthly close. For long term trend to resume to bullish, the blue average will have to cross above the red. Remember this is not a timing tool but long term trend direction. The Long term trend moved to bullish in July of 2002 at $303 gold. It remained bullish until April 2013 when price collapsed below the Blue moving average in the 1480-1520 area. That put the trend to NEUTRAL. It then turned to bearish on Jan 31 2014 at 1239. It remained bearish until Feb 29, 2016 when the month closed above the blue moving average at 1235 putting the trend back to Neutral. And it is still a weak neutral. In other words price is near the threshold from bearish and neutral. But it is better than bearish. A close above 1322 will add a lot of strength to the “weak” neutral.</p>
<p>At literally the same price point as the red moving average is the Fibonacci 38% retracement (that dotted line). Thus 1272 is a key pivot point where the bulls and bears are fighting it out for control.</p>
<p>Finally is the 2015 yearly high at 1307. In order to label something a long term uptrend (unless we’re talking 20-40 years. But in order to label it long term uptrend, the minimum requirement is to exceed a previous year’s high. While we don’t use that component in our gauge, I’ve noted it because it is important resistance. The 2015 high was 1307, and this year’s high is 1303.</p>
<p>The last component measures the 89 month moving average and that is the 1319-1322 resistance zone. That’s the last resistance before 1400. In summary, resistance is the 1294-1307 area and 1314-1322. Above that and we’re heading for 1400. On the downside, support is the 1222-1255 area and 1150-1172.</p>
<p>The next key event that has to take place on the long term is for gold to get a monthly close above 1319-1322. This is the last long term resistance point on the chart until 1400-1438.</p>
<p>A monthly close below 1222 raises a caution flag but overall, it takes (at the moment) a monthly close below 1122 for the long term trend to flip back to Bearish.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/GolMon17May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Here’s another monthly view of the entire 21st Century Bull market.</p>
<p>The key is getting above the 2015 yearly high at 1307 and attacking the 89 month resistance at 1319-1322 which is the Fibonacci 89 month moving blue average. Then the 2011 downtrend line at 1425-1450. These are the last two resistance areas until final Fibonacci resistance in the 1530-1550 area.</p>
<p>In summary, the long term uptrend remains intact at the 21st Century trend line and the three final long term resistance points are defined below (1319-1322) (1425-1450) and 1530. Much higher prices are in store as we move towards 2018-2023.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/May/Gold89MonthMovingAverage16May2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4024827
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4024827Bill DowneyTue, 10 May 2016 20:29:14 GMTA seasonal and short term view on gold<p><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="349" height="46" style="width: 349px; height: 46px;" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="5">Mid Week ~ May 10 2016</font><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></strong><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Seasonally May is the strongest month for the USD. &nbsp;Not every year, but enough for it to be the strongest overall month. &nbsp;In addition, for gold, May is the 2nd weakest month of the year.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">The chart below shows the US Dollar hitting 2015 price support and (so far) not closing below it. &nbsp;It's the perfect time for a rebound rally in price and time and thus it should be respected.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">IF THE US dollar came withing 1 point of violating the 2015 low and gold came within 3 dollars of taking out the 2015 high, then it stands to reason that a new low in US dollar and new high in gold would be a YEARLY event and thus would be another notch in confirming longer term reversals. &nbsp;Gold KEY RESISTANCE IS 1314-1322. &nbsp;A weekly close above 1322 would favor gold moving towards 1400. &nbsp;On the other hand, a weekly close below 1217-1222 would delay this event (for now).</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GoldVsUSDMay102016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">This week</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Our post on twitter this morning was looking at potential support in the 1252-1257 area and since then a 10 dollar rally has been in place. &nbsp;Should these lines break the next important place would be the 1240 area. &nbsp;That is where we have the April 27th low before the final rally to 1300 and it is also the point of support from the 19th to 21st of April. &nbsp; &nbsp;On a weekly basis the 1222 area is the critical support. &nbsp;The odds of 1252-1257 or 1240 being the low this week are pretty good. &nbsp;If gold is heading for 1222-1240 I strongly suspect that will be kept for next week. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Summary; &nbsp;Look for 1240 or 1252-1257 as this weeks support (most likely point). &nbsp;Lets go to resistance on the next chart.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GoldTwitterHourlyPost10May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br>
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This week</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br>
It looks like the mid-week bounce in gold is underway. &nbsp;I've taken off the channel lines on this chart and to me it looks like gold is going to go test the resistance at 1272-1276 where the very short term moving averages are crossing. &nbsp;A close above the moving averages, and the next resistance doesn't seem to be until near 1295 (last weeks high). &nbsp;A close above the averages and we could say a move towards 1285-1295 can take place.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolHrly10MayMidWkBounce10May.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Summary very short term;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Gold is still choppy and overlapping in overall pattern look. &nbsp;If this is only a mid week bounce, then it should end Wednesday or Thursday. &nbsp; Closes above the moving averages allow for further upside into Thursday. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Gold Short term cycles</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">The next blue cycle is due May 21st (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means that a look at the chart suggests that the pullback is ON ODDS not complete. &nbsp; That doesn't mean it can't explode higher at any time, it means all things given we should expect a low sometime next week. &nbsp;The best spot for that is at the lower 2015 channel line or the red 2016 upper channel line. &nbsp;That puts support in the 1210-1230 area and 1240-1255 (for now). &nbsp;If the cycle plays out, a ideal low would be where the red and black trend lines meet on the cycle chart below sometime in the 2nd part of next week. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolCyc10May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Summary</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">A short term low is due next week. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Closes above 1272-1276 favor another attempt at pushing prices towards 1290-1300.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">Anytime we are below 1255, be on guard for potential testing of 1222-1240.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">If the short term cycle plays out, we should see a low point next week and a move higher into the 1st Week of June is the odds favored scenario at the moment. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">2015 high was 1308 --- as long as we are below that, pullback can remain in play. &nbsp;A close above 1322 on a weekly basis would be bullish signal for 1400 gold as next target.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" size="4">WATCH THE US DOLLAR -- odds favor gold reacts in opposite. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4012486
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4012486Bill DowneyMon, 09 May 2016 17:50:36 GMTGold short term cycles and support and resistance points<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term - bearish</strong></p>
<p>This week’s important price points in gold are the 1260-1263 area and then near 1255. Additional support is the 1222-1230 area. Gold should see a bounce from this Monday low back towards 1272-1280 and then we’ll see. IF the short term cycles play out, this pullback should last until around the 21st of this month. Resistance this week will be 1280-1290 if gold gets back above 1272.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolHrly9May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term Cycle</strong></p>
<p>As discussed in our last update, a close above 1272 favored higher into May 6th with the target the upper dotted channel line and that’s what we got going into the cycle turn due May 6th (plus or minus 72 hours). If the cycle plays out, gold should move sideways to lower going into the next blue cycle due on the 21st of the month. The window for the red cycle turn is open until this coming Monday close. In summary, if the cycle plays out, we should see a pullback into and around the 21st of May.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolCyc9May2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4010237
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/4010237Bill DowneyThu, 28 Apr 2016 19:43:04 GMTGold in the 21st Century Chart<p>Gold Long Term</p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ We’ve shown this chart before.</p>
<p>The key is the action we saw at the 21st Century Channel line and the subsequent reversal higher. Odds continue to favor the major low has taken place. Long term support is that upper black dotted line at 1050-1087 area and then the lower dotted 21st Century uptrend line in the 850-1000 area. We’re right near resistance on the monthly chart at 1272-1294. The key is getting above the 2015 yearly high at 1307. Thus resistance is 1314-1322 at the Fibonacci 89 month moving blue average and the 2011 downtrend line at 1425-1450. These are the last resistance areas until final Fibonacci resistance in the 1530-1550 area.</p>
<p>In summary, long term gold is getting very close to taking out major resistance points.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolMon28Apr2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3993309
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3993309Bill DowneyWed, 27 Apr 2016 13:05:37 GMTFOMC meeting should spark gold move one way or another today<p>This week all eyes are focused on Central Banks, namely the BOJ, RZB and time again for the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>The FOMC meets this week and results come out this afternoon, and although they promised 3-4 interest rate hikes in 2016, they have yet to pull the trigger. The central bank stated in March, that they are focused on events in other markets, particularly in Europe and Asia. Although data is supportive of another interest rate increase in the U.S., concerns about contagion from weak economies have caused the Fed to shift to a policy of "gradualism". This dovish stance on the market has allowed precious metal prices to rise.</p>
<p>While market consensus points to no change in U.S. interest rate policy this week, central banks like to keep markets guessing when it comes to the actual meeting results. Therefore, precious metals face their next hurdle this week. A surprise rate hike would cause a rally in the dollar. A stronger dollar and increasing interest rates would likely be bearish for the precious metals sector on the short term, but certainly not the long term. We are in the camp that higher rates will be bullish for gold. Additionally, hawkish language in the statement increasing the chances of a rate hike before summer could cause a relief rally in the dollar and a downside correction in precious metals. With that said, all other trends besides short term seem poised for higher prices.</p>
<p>Precious metals are likely to soar on the wings of a dove or fall if attacked by a hawk when it comes to the Fed policy and statements this coming week. Be careful out there in the precious metals markets, although they are looking better than they have in years, the prospects for volatility have increased with prices and we could see some violent price action ahead. I remain bullish on the precious metals sector, but it is likely to be a bumpy road up the mountain. Precious metals have all taken a giant step forward, the Fed and dollar will tell us this week if new highs are in the cards soon.</p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>On a short term basis, the big question is whether cycles are inverting and putting the blue cycle as a high rotation or not? The first chart shows the blue cycle high potential. If this is the right rotation then prices should begin to head lower today/tomorrow. In order to negate the cycle we would need to exceed last week’s high which is at 1272. Let’s go look at the next chart.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolCyc27Apr2016Inversion.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycle with no inversion</strong></p>
<p>Because prices dropped to the lows during last Friday and remain above the 50 day moving average, it is not out of the question that the blue cycle remains at the low point. Any MOVE BELOW 1217-1222 will confirm we are going to move lower into the May 7th timeframe. The bottom line is that cycles are reflecting the markets indecision and choppy pattern. From a pattern perspective, a case can be made that gold is currently in an A-B-C corrective pattern, and that the C wave portion is going to play out. That would target the 1172-1192 area if that pattern observation is correct.</p>
<p>In summary, gold remains in a trading range. Odds favor that it should make its move one way or the other after the FOMC meeting today.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/GolCyc27Apr2016.jpg" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3988539
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3988539Bill DowneyThu, 21 Apr 2016 17:44:26 GMTDid gold just make the spring high ?<div>
<strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The one thing i didn't want to see was a NEW high at the blue cycle. &nbsp;Now the question is has gold just INVERTED and changed the rotation to BLUE CYCLE HIGHS (bearish). &nbsp; If yes, then odds are high that gold has just put in the spring high. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Although we can't be sure just yet, &nbsp;the COMMERCIALS are heavily short gold and long the USD dollar. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">If silver can't close above 17.25 on Friday, it will add more danger to the longs. &nbsp; With silver making new highs this year along with Platinum and GOLD NOT DOING SO leaves the door open for the downside. &nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">I'll have a full update tomorrow on the website. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3976415
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3976415Bill DowneyTue, 12 Apr 2016 12:55:01 GMTGold Medium Term Technical Chart<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~ BULLISH</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1128-1145 --- bullish</p>
<p>As reported in February, the most significant event was the medium term trend had moved from bearish to neutral for the first time since April 5th 2013 at a time when gold closed the week at 1575. We reported that the next thing we need to see is the moving average blue cross the red average with price above both on a monthly closing basis. WHILE THE MONTH HAS NOT ENDED, THE BLUE AVERAGE (1128) CROSSED ABOVE THE RED (1145) two weeks for the first time since March 22nd , 2013 when gold was 1609 an ounce !!!!</p>
<p>As long as gold closes above the blue moving average in April, the medium trend will remain BULLISH.</p>
<p>The next step is to close above 1288-1322 on a weekly basis. If that develops look for gold to run up to 1400 at some point in time in 2016 with the potential for a lot more. In summary, this is the best evidence we have seen that the bull market has resumed.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/April/XgldWkly11Apr2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3943084
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3943084Bill DowneyThu, 31 Mar 2016 19:29:52 GMTShort and medium term gold cycles<p><br></p>
<p>The cycle chart is busy but don't let it throw you. All we have done is add the MEDIUM TERM cycles into the usual cycle chart you see. The Green is the ideal week for a turn and the Yellow is the WINDOW for a standard deviation required for cycles. Nothing works EXACT. Otherwise, the Greeks would have conquered the grain markets long ago.</p>
<p>The short term blue cycle favors higher prices until April 7th (plus or minus 72 hours). That is a bit above a 70% confidence factor. I've HIGHLIGHTED a cycle FAILURE/INVERSION in November to show it can happen. It has not happened in 9 turns and we're at the end of the quarter and at a medium term point. IF GOLD IS VERY STRONG it should be able to hold 1215-1222 on a weekly basis. Since 1207 is the low any failure there and your looking at the potential of 1190-1200. The bottom line is that for the moment, we can trust the blue cycle with 70% odds. Remember, there are no absolutes. If gold does rally and gets above 1245, then the potential to move to 1272-1307 even to 1322. If we begin to fail here, and move below 1207, it would introduce the potential of a cycle failure/inversion where 1190-1200 reside at the channel line marked support. If price were to move inside the 2016 uptrend channel then it opens up 1122-1172.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/GolCyc31Mar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3921592
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3921592Bill DowneyTue, 22 Mar 2016 15:31:13 GMTWhen will we know the bubble is bursting ?<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Why the Coming Debt Bubble Will Burst</strong></p>
<p>When will we know the bubble is bursting?</p>
<p>INTEREST RATES !!!</p>
<p>Interest rates rise for only 2 reasons - GROWTH (Confidence) and FEAR (Lost Confidence)</p>
<p>We will know the bubble is bursting when the chart below violates the trend lines to the upside. We have now completed a Fibonacci 34 years from the top.&nbsp; Price has been dancing up against the upper line for almost two years.&nbsp;&nbsp; But it s coming !!</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/TnxMon2Mar2016.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p>Here is the chart with the last FEAR move in rates............and gold went from 400 to 875 during the rise.&nbsp; This is proof that gold can rise during interest rate hikes.</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/TnxMonFearChartMar2016.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Today's news:</strong>&nbsp; (Already at the state &amp; territorial level in USA).</p>
<p><strong>Debt Default Watch</strong> = Puerto Rico will ask U.S. Supreme Court to validate law that lets it cut billions of dollars from what it owes in debt.</p>
<p><strong>Pre-Debt Default Watch</strong></p>
<p>Philadelphia is trying to introduce a 3 cent tax per ounce of soda. The excuse is that “sugar” is bad for you so they have only the best interests in mind for society. They expect to get almost $100 million annually. The city is dead broke and has a 22.5% tax on parking and 8.5% tax on hotels.&nbsp;</p>
<p>This latest “soda tax” means a 2-liter bottle of soda typically costs $1.50, but the tax would amount to $2.04, more than the cost of the actual bottle. The cost of a 12-pack of soda would nearly double to more than $8.</p>
<p><strong>Summary of what it means...........</strong></p>
<p>EVERY DOLLAR REMOVED BY GOVERNMENT FOR TAXES IS LESS TO SPEND FOR REAL GOODS WHICH IN ITSELF IS WHAT IS CAUSING DEFLATION --- IN OTHER WORDS PEOPLE HAVE LESS AND LESS TO SPEND ON GOODS.</p>
<p>The problem is not Commodity Inflation ---- its government taxation and regulation that is churning out higher costs !&nbsp;&nbsp; The proof is in the chart below (Commodity Prices).&nbsp;&nbsp; We actually reached 1976 price at year end 2015.</p>
<p>So now the government will try and sustain the price of oil &amp; probably commodities.&nbsp;&nbsp; The reason is simple.&nbsp; If they don't stop the price collapse, the emerging market debt (which is 60% in US Dollars) will DEFAULT.&nbsp; That is also why they are so DESPERATE to have the US dollar lowered.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/Crb1971To2016Nov2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p>Perhaps a secret deal may have been forged at the last G-20 meeting in Shanghai in March 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; In 1985 the Plaza Accord (G-5) did just that - a coordinated effort to lower the US dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp; Did the Banksters just implement the Shanghai accord?&nbsp;</p>
<p>The double top at PAR 100 is the banksters last stand.&nbsp;&nbsp;Right now the USD is still at a support point, but just barely.&nbsp; The next support line is near 91-92.&nbsp; The Central Banks are aware that a higher dollar = DEBT DEFAULT (on all money borrowed in US Dollars)</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/USDWkly22Mar2016.gif" border="0"></p>
<p>How close are we really ?&nbsp; While there is no exact date,&nbsp; odds favor it is near.&nbsp; But what can we learn from the past ?&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Tomorrow's News:</strong></p>
<p>Sovereign Debt is What really brings down the House !!!</p>
<p><strong><font style="font-size: 18px;">Misplaced Confidence In The ECB - Lessons From John Law's Mississippi Bubble</font></strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com</strong></p>
<p>Last week, the ECB extended its monetary madness, pushing deposit rates further into negative figures.</p>
<p>It is extending quantitative easing from sovereign debt into non-financial investment grade bonds, while increasing the pace of acquisition to €80bn per month. The ECB also promised to pay the banks to take credit from it in "targeted longer-term refinancing operations".</p>
<p>Any Frenchman with a knowledge of his country's history should hear alarm bells ringing. The ECB is running the Eurozone's money and assets in a similar fashion to that of John Law's Banque Generale Privée (renamed Banque Royale in 1719), which ran those of France in 1716-20. The scheme at its heart was simple: use the money-issuing monopoly granted to the bank by the state to drive up the value of the Mississippi Company's shares using paper money created for the purpose. The Duc d'Orleans, regent of France for the young Louis XV, agreed to the scheme because it would provide the Bourbons with much-needed funds.</p>
<p>This is pretty much what the ECB is doing today, except on a far larger Eurozone-wide basis. The need for government funds is of primary importance today, as it was then.</p>
<p>In Law's day, France did not have a central bank, such as the Bank of England, managing the issue of government debt, let alone a functioning government bond market. The profligate spending of Louis XIV had left the state three billion livres in debt, which was the equivalent of 1,840 tonnes of gold. This was about 85% of the world's estimated gold stock at that time, at the livre's conversion rate into Louis d'Or. John Law would almost double that by June 1720, with unbacked livre notes issued by his bank.</p>
<p>Today, the assets being overvalued for the governments' benefit are government bonds themselves, but the principal is the same. There is no need to use a separate, Mississippi-style vehicle, because there is a fully functioning government bond market.</p>
<p>Banque Generale created the bank credit for France's upper and middle classes to buy Mississippi Company shares, driving up the price and making yet higher prices a certainty. Law had set up a money-making machine for those with a modicum of wealth, but the ten per cent down-payment required to subscribe for Mississippi shares made speculation available to the servant classes as well. The result was virtually everyone in Paris was caught up in the speculative fever, and Mississippi shares increased from the 15 livres deposit to 18,000 livres fully paid at the peak in June 1720. The term "millionaire" dated from that time.</p>
<p>Today, the ECB is doing things a little differently, creating money to buy government bonds from the banks, enabling governments to continue to spend without the threat of a funding crisis. Basel III banking regulations, which exempt banks from having to apply a risk weighting to government bonds, ensures that the bonds are also in great demand as collateral, further guaranteeing that the banks will continue to buy them.</p>
<p>However, in common with Law's scheme, the ECB needs new suckers all the time to keep the market from stalling, so the ECB is extending the scheme beyond sovereign debt by buying up investment grade bonds as well. And since it can conjure up money out of thin air, it will also pay the commercial banks interest to borrow from it, ensuring the yields on all bonds purchased with this finance will continue to fall in line with negative interest rates.</p>
<p>As was surely the case in 1720, the expansion of credit is commonly believed to be a very good thing, as necessary for the welfare of the Eurozone states today as it was for France three hundred years ago. But don't be fooled. For the scheme to continue, more credit has to be issued, and more bonds bought to stop the bond bubble from deflating. That is the real reason behind the ECB's action. And because it cannot be continued for ever, that is why ultimately the bubble will pop.</p>
<p>The Mississippi bubble came to an end when France ran out of sufficient buyers to keep it inflating. There always comes a point where the temptation to cash in some profit to buy those other things long desired, such as a country estate and a smart Paris residence, becomes too great to resist. And when the Mississippi bubble lost its mojo, the selling escalated. By late 1720, the Banque Royale, as it had been renamed, faced angry note-holders unable to redeem them for specie. Once the run started, the whole scam rapidly imploded.</p>
<p>It seems extraordinary that in economics, wishful thinking trumps reasoned analysis and common sense so often. The fallacies that have brought the ECB to implement its delusional policies are broadly the same as those in which John Law believed. In both cases, they started by assuming that the state has a duty to ensure money and credit are freely available, unchaining the population from the constraints of free markets. In both cases, their beliefs inevitably adjusted as a result of problems that subsequently arise as the by-products of monetary expansion. And in both cases, yet further monetary expansion then became the only solution to apply as a cure-all for the problems themselves. Unsound money has come to be deployed simply to keep bankrupt governments going.</p>
<p>We should put to one side all other reasons, justifications and excuses for what has happened, because it was the French state that employed Law to run its bank, and the Eurozone governments that created the ECB. The servant always serves the master. Banque Royale succumbed to a run, while the ECB is still nursing a banking system, that on a reversal of the asset bubble, will almost certainly collapse. In this respect, the ECB is not quite at the Banque Royale's tipping point, but it is edging closer.</p>
<p>Everyone in the Eurozone believes that the ECB is all-powerful, because to believe otherwise is unthinkable. This was also true of Banque Royale, until it faltered. It was not a loss of confidence in the bank that was responsible for the collapse, it happened as a result of the difficulties encountered in sustaining the bubble. The lesson is that it need not take a loss of confidence in the ECB to start its destruction.</p>
<p>Let's imagine for a moment, that the bond-market bubble ends and prices start to normalise. We know that it won't take much to create losses that will wipe out the capital of some critically important commercial banks, but we like to think the ECB is on top of this problem. Very few people seem to be are aware of the crisis that falling bond prices would create for the ECB itself.</p>
<p>The ECB's equity capital at 31 December 2015 was €7.74bn, supporting a balance sheet of €256.645bn, a gearing ratio of over 33 times. The wider euro-system's accounts, where the asset purchases accumulate, has capital and reserves of €98bn supporting a balance sheet of €2,872bn, a gearing ratio of 29 times and rising. As a rough guide, an interest rate increase of less than two per cent, to as little as one and a half per cent, would undermine the value of bonds and related risks at both the ECB and in the euro-system, to the point where they would require further capital injections. For some context, if the yield to maturity on a five-year bond rises by 2%, the price falls roughly 10%.</p>
<p>Now we are getting to the truth as to why the ECB's debt bubble must be sustained. It is no longer to support economic growth. A deflating asset bubble will take down the ECB and the wider euro-system, just as the Mississippi bubble took down Banque Royale. And in both cases, the confidence vested in these institutions is reflected in the purchasing power of the money they have issued.</p>
<p>It may not be long before foreign holders of euros begin to visualise Mr Draghi in a full-bottomed wig, lace jabot and long velvet coat. Their problem will be looking for safety, because the ghosts of eighteenth-century monetary economists can also be imagined at the helm of the other major central banks. In John Law's day, the solution was simple, as the private banker, Richard Cantillon showed. He cashed in early, selling livres for gold.</p>
<p>Cantillon, who was the equivalent of today's investment banker, not only punted the Mississippi bubble successfully, but he loaned large quantities of fiat livres to the wealthy in Paris, taking in Mississippi stock as collateral. Before the crash, he had the prescience to sell all his own stock for gold. It is said that he also secretly sold all the collateral he had had pledged to him, again settling for gold. Cantillon then removed himself across the border to Italy with his stash of Louis d'Or to await developments.</p>
<p>After the crash, he returned, and demanded repayment of the outstanding debts from his clients. Cantillon probably became the richest commoner in history, and immensely unpopular in Paris to boot. Rather like the investment bankers of today, he made his fortune while nearly everyone else was impoverished.</p>
<p>We cannot say for sure what will trigger the end for the ECB and the euro. It could be a member state, like Italy, Spain or even France, running into financial or political trouble. It could be the threatened break-up of the European Union, if the Brexit polls swing in favour of Britain leaving, and the blow that it would impart to European unity. The Muslim immigration problem is often cited as a threat to the European project. It could be developments on the other side of the world, perhaps China driving up commodity prices, leading to future price inflation in the Eurozone, so leaving Eurozone bond markets exposed to the threat of rising interest rates.</p>
<p>Equally, it might not be an identifiable event. Rather like the Mississippi scam, it could end when the Eurozone's bond markets just run out of steam.</p>
<p>Is gold reacting because it is time?</p>
<p>"We are in the window for change"</p>
<p><strong>Gold&nbsp;Medium&nbsp;Term</strong></p>
<p>Gold has broken out of a downtrend and many are calling for the bear market end.&nbsp; If this is so, then gold must move above the TWO BIGGEST RESISTANCE lines in current striking distance and that is the Fibonacci 38% retrace at 1280-1290 and the April 2013 CRASH LOW at 1322 when over 600,000 (100 ounce) contracts changed hands.&nbsp; A monthly close above 1322 favors a test of 1400 as the next great resistance.</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/XgldWkly22Mar2016.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle turn is due Marc 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).&nbsp;&nbsp; Just keep in mind that on average, 3 INVERSIONS occur yearly.&nbsp;&nbsp; You can see the last INVERSION on the chart where the BLUE CYCLE TURNED INTO A HIGH...........and price got decimated.&nbsp; Keep that in mind.&nbsp; There are no absolutes in markets --- only odds.&nbsp; On the shorter term, support is the 1233-1243 area and then 1217-1222 &amp; 1190-1200.&nbsp; For now the upper channel line is Price resistance (1288).&nbsp; If we close above there, then look for 1305-1325 next.</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/GolCyc22Mar2016.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Silver Long Term</strong></p>
<p>History shows that Silver participates in all gold rallies.&nbsp;&nbsp; This looks like the spot to now watch if silver gets stronger than gold.&nbsp; That's what we need to see.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/GoldSilverRation1994To2016Mar212016.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Silver Long Term Chart</strong></p>
<p>We posted this on Twitter on December 3rd ---- to buy silver at 14.06.&nbsp;&nbsp; It was the exact week that gold bottomed at 1050.&nbsp;&nbsp; We also posted this buy at 14.34 on the website.&nbsp; The only other long term trend line is at $8.00.&nbsp;&nbsp;We won't rule out a test of that area, but should it come, one should close their eyes and buy another round of silver with both hands !!!</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverTradeRecommendLongTerm3Dec2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>The "window" for the gold turn has been&nbsp;Oct&nbsp;- 2015 to June 2016.&nbsp; That is when gold is most likely to bottom.&nbsp;&nbsp;We have stated this since last September on our website updates.&nbsp; So far the Dec low at 1045 meets the criteria.&nbsp;&nbsp; We won't rule out another wave just yet,&nbsp; but if we get above 1322 on a monthly basis, odds favor the bear market is over for gold and silver.</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3900195
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3900195Bill DowneyMon, 21 Mar 2016 16:09:02 GMTIf gold is to continue rally, History Favors Silver to Follow<p><br></p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br>
<br>
<p><strong>If Gold is to Rally, History Favors Silver to Follow;</strong></p>
<p>If gold is to rally, history favors that silver has to follow. &nbsp; A look at the last 22 years shows this is where silver usually takes its cues and begins to appreciate more than gold. &nbsp;Is there any fundamentals that suggest higher prices?</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/GoldSilverRation1994To2016Mar212016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Investors seem to already be aware that silver prices are cheap relative to gold as you can see by this chart below by Smaugld. &nbsp;A surge of buying in the last six months has come into play.</p>
<p>But there is one other thing worth noting about silver.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverIncreasedBuyingPerthMintMar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverIncreasedBuyingPerthMintMar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>China's Silver Grab</strong></p>
<p>By Sean Brodrick</p>
<p>Working very quietly, China is taking the reins of the global silver market, which is one more reason the price of silver is likely to move much higher.</p>
<p>Behind the Scenes</p>
<p>A major Chinese bank just became an official participant in the London Bullion Market silver price - the group of banks that matches buy and sell orders to set a daily price "fixing" for silver.</p>
<p>The bank is China Construction Bank. According to CME Group, this leading Chinese bank will officially join existing participants HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank and UBS as the entities that set the price of silver.</p>
<p>CME Group is involved because it provides the electronic auction platform on which the silver price is calculated or "fixed."</p>
<p>"China Construction Bank is delighted to be the first Chinese bank to become a participant in the Silver Price auction process in London," Mr. Gu Yu, general manager of the financial markets department at CCB, said in press reports. "This further builds on our combined efforts to boost renminbi liquidity and products in Europe."</p>
<p>At the same time, CCB says it will help develop a futures contract for physical delivery of silver in London. But this contract won't be denominated in British pound sterling, euros or even the U.S. dollar. Instead, it will be priced in renminbi, China's currency.</p>
<p>So, for those keeping score, that marks the first time that physical silver can be bought and sold in London (or in any global market) in China's currency.</p>
<p>Soaring Imports</p>
<p>Why is China doing this?</p>
<p>"China's silver imports recently hit their highest level in four years," Eric Fry writes. "Most likely, the Chinese are stepping up their silver purchases as a way to protect themselves from the risk that their currency, the renminbi, will continue to lose value against the U.S. dollar."</p>
<p>And sure enough, China's silver imports are soaring.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverEasternDemand2013To2016ComparisonsMar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>China's silver imports have grown for three years in a row. They're still not back to the levels China saw before its financial crisis. But China's investors are buying silver hand over fist as a way to beat that country's draconian capital controls. China's laws limit annual overseas transfers to $50,000 per person.</p>
<p>Fearing that their currency could be devalued further, Chinese investors and consumers are working around this rule every way possible. That includes buying silver to store wealth... or sometimes to easily transport wealth out of the country.</p>
<p>Sure, the IMF declared China's currency to be an official reserve currency last November. That puts the Remnimbi on a more even standing with global powerhouse currencies such as the dollar, the euro and the yen. But it is fundamentally overvalued, and many analysts fear a sudden devaluation of 10% to 15%.</p>
<p>More Bullish News</p>
<p>The Chinese aren't the only ones interested in silver. Holdings in the silver ETFs tracked by Bloomberg are expanding rapidly. Through Monday, inflows totaled 474 metric tons since the beginning of the year. That reverses almost all of last year's outflow of 524 metric tons.</p>
<p>And silver coins are flying off the shelves. From the start of the year through last week, 12 million U.S. Silver Eagles were sold. That's nearly 25% higher than during the same period a year earlier.</p>
<p>This level of silver demand is being called "unprecedented." February sales for U.S. Silver Eagles were the highest the mint has ever seen.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, on the supply side, a big squeeze is developing. Global silver mine production is expected to fall in 2016 by as much as 5% from 2015. This would be the first drop in mine production since 2002.</p>
<p>So, put it all together and things are looking bullish for silver prices. &nbsp; (JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT GOLD MUST FOLLOW THRU HIGHER - &nbsp;GOLDTRENDS)</p>
<p>Good investing,</p>
<p>Sean Brodrick</p>
<p>For The Non-Dollar Report</p>
<p><strong>GoldTrends (Charts &amp; Outlook)</strong></p>
<p><strong>Silver Short Term Outlook</strong></p>
<p>Silver enters this week with 1st support near 1565-1575 and then 1520-1535. &nbsp;Any move down to 15 or 14.50 should be considered a good buying opportunity. &nbsp; IF silver moves above 16.40 resistance, then the 17-18 barrier would become the next target. &nbsp;Remember, gold must keep its rally going if silver is to make waves higher.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/Sil8hr18mar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Silver Long Term</strong></p>
<p>On a long term basis we made our 1st silver buy Physical recommendation at 14.06-14.36. &nbsp;Odds are highest that one of these two trend lines is where the low will happen. &nbsp;We've already hit the Uptrend line and significantly, it was at the 200 Month Moving Average. &nbsp;I personally have bought physical silver in December and March of this year. &nbsp; We cannot remove the potential of silver reaching the down trend support line should the current recession turn into a full blown depression. &nbsp; But if that were to happen, I would certainly add to physical holdings in the 12-10 &amp; 8 area to complete my physical buys. &nbsp;While there are no absolutes in markets, having some physical silver makes sense in the years to come. &nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverMonLongTermSupportLines9Mar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"></strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term Outlook</strong></p>
<p>From a wave perspective, the best fit seems to be we have completed 5 waves. &nbsp;Keep in mind the best fit is not the ONLY FIT. &nbsp; &nbsp; As long as gold is above 1222-1232 the short and intermediate term trends are still up. &nbsp; On the upside, as long as we remain below 1272-1287 then this wave count below will remain accurate and would allow a correction to deepen if we move below 1217-1222 on the short term. &nbsp; The ideal place for a trade would be the 1172-1182 area in gold or near 1150.</p>
<p>Summary - marking choppy wave patterns is much tougher than clear impulse waves as in the 1st and 3rd wave on this chart. &nbsp;Watch that 1217-1222 and up to 1233 area. &nbsp;That's 1st level support and then the 1172-1200 area as a 2nd level area to watch.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/Gol4Hr21Mar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></p>
<p>Short term gold cycles favor a low March 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours) thus we are now in the window. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>The tricky part this time around is the Medium Term Cycle window is open (yellow). &nbsp; We can argue a high has been made and a pullback towards support near 1200 or all the way down towards 1150 can still develop. &nbsp;That would mean this coming blue cycle would produce a low, and a bounce but would be a weak one that would lead to a lower price at the next RED cycle (around April 21st) but keep in mind, this is speculation on our part. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The other side of the coin is that gold will remain strong, and will bottom this week by holding 1217-1222 or even 1232 as support. &nbsp;That's the strong scenario. &nbsp;The normal scenario has gold reaching near 1200 and the weak scenario has gold moving back to 1150-1175.</p>
<p>For now watch either 1217-1233 or 1190-1200 area for two best places for a low this week.</p>
<p>What we don't want to SEE IS A HIGH FORMED IN GOLD THIS WEEK (Inversion). &nbsp; That would put a lot more bearishness intermediate term on the cycles we watch and at the moment WE CAN'T RULE THAT OUT. &nbsp; March 23rd has the potential to be an explosive day in markets. &nbsp;Keep that in mind.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/Golcyc21Mar2015AAA.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Most evidence supports a major turn attempt to end the bear market is in process. &nbsp;Gold has done the first thing correctly by bottoming at the Fib 50% retrace near 1050. &nbsp;Now it has reached the 38% Fib retrace (1280-1322). &nbsp; This is where we would get another confirmation that the lows are in. &nbsp;From a momentum standpoint, that TRIPLE GREEN UPTREND LINE is where gold (above it) resumes is long term momentum. &nbsp; In other words, it becomes key resistance if gold can conquer &nbsp;1280-1322.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/XgldWkly9Mar2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>Watch silver for gold clues, and consider buying some physical silver at the prices we discussed in the report.&nbsp;</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3894451
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3894451Bill DowneyWed, 16 Mar 2016 18:04:12 GMTFOMC today and Gold<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">FOMC minutes today</font></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last told us in December via its dot-plot forecasts that it anticipated the Fed-Funds Rate being raised four times this year. Now, due to economic uncertainty, NIRP discussion and market turbulence, the market has completely priced that prospect out. Fed funds futures indicate there's just an 8.5% probability of that happening, and investors believe there's just a 50% chance of the Fed hiking in June and 75% chance it only hikes once and not until December.</p>
<p>But economic data has improved somewhat, though it is still mixed. Importantly, the employment situation (as they report it -- not how we feel) is strong, with 4.9% unemployment and nonfarm payrolls growing robustly at last check. Also, inflation seems to be ticking up, with the Fed's favored inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rising 0.3% in January.&nbsp;</p>
<p>We don't think it's enough to support gold but it is enough for the Fed (continue saying) to hike rates. Those are the two mandates for the Fed, seeking full employment and healthy but not excessive inflation rates. Moreover, indications are that economists foresee 1.9% GDP growth for Q1.&nbsp;</p>
<p>To some extent, this is not the sort of scenario for NIRP, but rather a window of opportunity for the Fed to normalize monetary policy and store bullets for the next financial crisis or recession. &nbsp;</p>
<p>We don't believe the statistics they tell us are really indicating a robust economy, but it doesn't matter what we think, rather what the street thinks.</p>
<p>I expect when the Fed presents its dot-plots <span data-term="goog_1538854034">Wednesday</span>, it will show it still expects to raise interest rates 2 to 3 times this year. That is significantly more than the market has priced in. I believe that will result in a higher dollar, which in turn should give a headwind to gold prices (potentially) today &amp; possibly into <span data-term="goog_1538854035">Monday</span>. &nbsp; I say potentially because I believe that higher rates are good for gold but it will be a good opportunity for the COMMERCIAL Short positions to push gold towards 1200.</p>
<p>Support is either 1217-1222 ---- or 1185-1200 at the lower 2015 uptrend line and could be as deep as the 2016 upper line at 1162-1172. &nbsp;The next short term blue cycle low is <span data-term="goog_1538854036">Mar 23rd</span> (plus or minus 72 hours) so we are nearing the gold window for a short term low. &nbsp; Just keep in mind that this is a medium term cycle. &nbsp;We thought that the potential to rally into the 23rd was possible last week but it looks at the current moment that we're going to move lower into that next point. &nbsp; ANY CLOSE ABOVE 1280 means we are heading higher to 1302-1322. &nbsp;The strongest support is the area near 1172-1182 and that right now is where we would look to buy gold.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/J9TWFF_mn35UrO28I3UzX4ZyUBFm8wboxfzhE52-e-Nvgmpvr4Hl1L441NcU6DjyJpV_8kAvl8ndm-KVzbjccxQoWED_RgM51SRNTg9jLjin3WWV7I39SU_Vv6ac3lnn5_jrZw=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/Golcyc15Mar2015MED.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3884973
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3884973Bill DowneyTue, 08 Mar 2016 21:54:57 GMTAnatomy of short term silver trade<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" alt="" title="" border="0">
<p><br></p>
<p>The short term traders greatest enemy is trying to pick tops and bottoms on their trades. &nbsp;</p>
<p>There are more losses generated in trying to pick tops and bottoms than all the other losses combined. If that is so, then it is the main reason why 85 to 90% of all traders end up losing their account money.&nbsp;</p>
<p>This is not to say that there aren't times that one should look for a bottom or top, but the idea of trading them as a strategy is the single biggest reason of incurred losses. &nbsp;There was an old saying the professional trades used to use when the Chicago Board of Trade first became the main trading hub of the grain markets.</p>
<p>"Top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers."</p>
<p>When we think about it, trying to pick a top or bottom is about the most arbitrary thing one can do. &nbsp;How do we know its a top or bottom before one occurs? &nbsp;</p>
<p>Trying to pick tops and bottoms is arrogance at its best because it saying "i know more than the market knows." &nbsp;"I am smarter than the other traders are."</p>
<p>Sure, the market lets you pick SOME tops and bottoms. &nbsp;Just enough to make you think it can be done enough to yield a profit. But it's only really enough to lure and ADDICT you to it. At that point you are set up to think you're smarter than the market and that's when the market lets you have it by proving you wrong more often than not while systematically taking away your trading capital.</p>
<p>There is only two things that picking tops and bottom satisfies. &nbsp;The first and foremost is EGO. &nbsp;And the 2nd is selling newsletter and trading subscriptions.</p>
<p>The 2nd is only so because THE CROWD DEMANDS IT. &nbsp;This is the reason why all the newsletter advertisements don't show their trading performance to lure new subscribers, they publish the TIMES THEY SUCCESSFULLY called a top or a bottom. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The sad fact that picking tops and bottoms does not mean MAKING PROFITS. &nbsp;Those who pick tops and bottoms are usually the biggest losers overall for the simple reason they keep doing it until they are finally right for once. &nbsp;Unfortunately, the other losses when they were wrong add up to more than when they are right and eventually they end up losing all their capital and their subscribers. &nbsp;</p>
<p>How many times have you heard the so called metal guru's (who are really salesmen for metal) tell you that the bottom is in. &nbsp;Most have said so 10 or 20 times since 2011. &nbsp;And it stands to reason they will pick the bottom on the 21st call and you can be assured that all the advertisements going forward will say --- WE PICKED THE BOTTOM. &nbsp;And they did. But they lost all their clients money doing it over the past 5 years. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The 2nd biggest reason traders lose their capital is because they OVER TRADE. They just always have to have a trade going. &nbsp;If you always have to have a position on, your most likely ADDICTED to trading. &nbsp;Even though you don't know it, that means your doing it for the Adrenalin rush and not for making money. &nbsp;The markets always gives one what it really desires. &nbsp;KNOW THYSELF.&nbsp;</p>
<p>But this discussion is for another time and post. &nbsp;Let's look at the last silver trade we did on the trading page.</p>
<p>First things first. &nbsp;A TRADE is not a long term investment. &nbsp;If you look at our recommendations, we have made only 1 INVESTMENT recommendation in the past 5 years for Silver.</p>
<p>We published this chart on Twitter at 14.06 silver and on our signals trade page and gold report when silver was 14.34 for our ACCUMULATE position. &nbsp;At the time silver was at two long term trend lines and at the 200 month moving average. &nbsp;Continue to hold this position and add should silver go to 10-12 dollars. &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverTradeRecommendLongTerm3Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>On our short term silver trade, the chart below shows we entered at the 233 hour moving average at 15.08, and sold it when after a double top appeared, silver then proceeded to break the upper trend line at 15.62. &nbsp;We did not pick the top or the bottom, as our main goal was to try and extract some money on a short term basis. When silver shows us another high odd set up, &nbsp;we will trade again. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
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<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/March/SilverTrade8Mar2016Anatomy.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
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<p>In summary, &nbsp;short term trading is not about picking tops and bottoms, but trying to extract a profit during a short term move. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Trading is not investing so don't think you can trade an investment. &nbsp;On the investment side, we've initiated an accumulate for silver at 14.06 and 14.34. &nbsp;You're best bet is silver coins pre 1964 as they are the lowest in premiums and are most recognizable should they need to be used during a crisis. &nbsp;They are also still recognized as currency, and thus should have the lowest potential for government confiscation. &nbsp;</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3869321
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3869321Bill DowneyFri, 26 Feb 2016 14:18:00 GMTCycles, seasonal tendencies and Silver giving lots of reason to be cautions in short term gold<p data-waedittimecounter="963377"><font face="'Times New Roman'"><strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222" face="'Times New Roman'"><font face="Verdana">The high that occurred on Wednesday at 1253 made a mess of the cycles, &nbsp;It is possible that a Cycle Inversion could have taken place where we have the potential that the blue cycle made a high instead of a low. &nbsp;The window closed last night and the only way we are going to know that ITS NOT A INVERSION is if gold rallies above 1253-1263. &nbsp; The bottom line is that we need to be</font>&nbsp;very cautious here. &nbsp;Lets go to the next chart. &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/Cycle26Feb.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">The other reason I'm concerned over these next two weeks is that on the seasonal chart below, the latter portion of February to middle of March on average is a weak time of the year and as you can see, its prone to producing big sell offs. &nbsp;Not that IT ALWAYS sells off, &nbsp;but it does so more often than not. &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">Finally, Silver is not acting well at all as it moved from 1490 to 1560 but has now given up almost all its gains. Its very close to losing support at 1502-1507 and could fall back into the channel where a move lower to 1480 and even 1460 could take place. &nbsp;Not only that, but the green 200 hour moving average has moved above the blue 89 hour and until silver can close back above those averages, the very short term trend is vulnerable to a selloff.</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">Lastly, the G-20 meets Friday and Saturday and there should be a lot of discussion about a lower dollar. &nbsp;In other words, this could be a fake out before some announcement. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">Is that why gold is still above the very short term moving averages and the 89 hour average is still above the 233 hour. &nbsp;Perhaps gold is reluctant to sell off in lieu of the G-20 and what could happen where silver is not affected the same way. &nbsp;We just don't know for sure. &nbsp;It's best to be cautious in short term outlooks. &nbsp;The potential for lower prices can't be dismissed.. &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana" color="#222222">BOTTOM LINE ---- BE CAREFUL as there's a lot that's not right at the moment and we need to be suspicious.</font></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3845833
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3845833Bill DowneyTue, 23 Feb 2016 21:00:37 GMTGold, Gold stocks, and the current 2016 rally<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>We tested 1190 so far on this pullback but nothing more. Then we shot up to 1240, only to come back to 1202 before the move back to 1222 area. Support remains near 1180-1190. As long as we stay above 1205, the overall short term trend will be up. A close below 1205 and odds favor we test the 1180 area. On the upside, if we get above 1228, then there is still resistance at 1235-1240 and then 1255-1265. A MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE 1255 would be big for the continuance of the upside.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/Gol8Hr23Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next Cycle is due Feb 22nd (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that odds are 70% that gold will begin to move higher again after Feb 25th. The last cycle began early and finished right near the post 72 hour period. Any pullback to 1180 this week would be viewed as a short term buying opportunity.</p>
<p>In summary, gold has burst into the 2015 uptrend channel and as long as we remain inside the channel the trend is up. Odds remain the upside action is in play as we make what looks like another blue cycle low.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/GolCyc23Feb20167.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Neutral</p>
<p>Medium Term Moving averages – 122 – 126</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Moving averages – 146-138— Bullish.</p>
<p>The intermediate term trend remains bullish since Jan 28th and the medium term trend has moved to neutral as of Feb 1st. As long as we remain above 120-129 on a weekly basis the medium term has been neutralized.</p>
<p>Support is now 144-150 and 120-126. As long as we are ABOVE 129 trends remain up. Any pullback to 140 should provide strong support. Any close above 166 would favor we are heading for 180-185 next. The trend remains UP.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/Hui23Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Long Term Gold Stocks</strong></p>
<p>On a longer term basis, the chart below shows the entire bear market in gold stocks. The current downtrend line is perhaps the most important line of all to take out. This would show that the current rally’s momentum is reversing the huge selloff. This is a massive bullish flag formation. But it needs the follow thru now.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/HUIBigDowntrendLine23Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1224 – 1312</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~NEUTRAL</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1117-1126</p>
<p>The big news technically is the dual downtrend yellow line got taken out and prices exploded to just under the 38% retracement area in gold. That is the last resistance on the weekly chart until the 1309-1322 and then near 1400.</p>
<p>As long as we remain above the moving averages (1117-1126) the uptrend that started in 2016 remains in play. Since April of 2014, we have listed at the top of the report that we need a monthly close above 1255 in order to come out of bearish mode and move to neutral. The weekly close was 1247 so far in February (intraday was 1263).</p>
<p>PULLBACK SUPPORT IS THE FIRST YELLOW LINE AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST SUPPORT ATTEMPT THERE near 1180-1200. IF we hold that dual yellow line, gold’s upside will still have potential for a total medium term trend change.</p>
<p>In summary, the top dual yellow line is support, in between the lines is neutral and a close BELOW THE LOWER DUAL YELLOW LINE will put KEEP the bear trend in gold still in play. Look for the upper dual yellow line to provide SUPPORT and then we’ll see if gold can mount an attack back above 1255.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/XgldWkly23Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
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<p>Dow Jones (US STOCKS)<br>
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<p>US Stock Market – Medium Term Trend has moved from Bearish to Neutral.</p>
<p>The US stock market is trying to climb back to the broken support lines. It would take a monthly close above Dow 17300 to neutralize the downtrend that is underway. On the downside, a monthly close below Dow 15300 would favor the next down leg has begun. Unless we get a miracle rally to month end, the Dow goes from bullish to neutral on the 29th if we are below Dow 17300.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/DowWkly23Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3839804
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3839804Bill DowneyFri, 19 Feb 2016 19:14:59 GMTGold Elliot Wave Count Since The Lows<br>
<p align="center"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Gold encounters tramline resistance</strong></font></p><br>
<p align="center"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><em>From John C Burford</em></font></p>
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<p align="left"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Now that gold has zoomed up by $200 off its $1,050 December lows, it is grabbing major headlines. Gold mining shares, which were shunned two months ago, are back in fashion. Isn't it curious how quickly sentiment can change?<br>
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As a measure of market sentiment, I have shown charts before of the position of hedge funds in the futures market in terms of their holdings of long and short futures and options. Remember, the Comex gold futures market is the leading arena for price discovery – and the hedge fund group is the major player.<br>
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I have stated many times that hedge funds are herding beasts – they are primarily trend followers, not contrarians. If they spot a definite trend, they will jump on it seemingly regardless of the dangerous waters that lie ahead.<br>
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That means after a trend develops, hedge funds will, as a group, accumulate either long or short positions in the trend's direction. Then, when the trend turns, they are caught with a maximum amount of wrong-way bets. In gold, they have been adding bearish bets all the time during the downtrend last year. That is, until the trend change in December.<br>
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And individual traders, who are not herders, can use this priceless information to our advantage.<br>
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Here is the updated sentiment chart as measured by the Commitments of Traders (COT) data. Remember, this is not a survey (as is the Daily Sentiment Index that I often quote), but real money on the line. This is the ultimate commitment to express your views.<br></font></p>
<p align="left"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/GoldCot19Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p align="center"><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><em>chart courtesy</em> <a href="http://click2.fspeletters.com/t/BQ/uyo/yL4/ABPqCA/ZUE/AAF4Gw/AQ/hYCq"><em>www.elliottwave.com</em></a></font></p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
The blue line represents the net position of hedge funds (managed money) with respect to their long/short futures and options holdings. In December, a most unusual event occurred – they held a <strong>net short position</strong> (the record on the chart).<br>
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For speculators, this is an all-time record level of bearishness.<br>
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Just admire the coincidence of the highs in the market with the highs in the blue line. If an intelligent Martian landed and saw this chart and knew nothing about gold or trading or the futures markets, wouldn't it conclude that money can be made by shorting at the highs and buying at the lows as indicated by this COT data?<br>
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Yet most hedge fund managers are oblivious to this rather obvious relationship. Maybe they are just not as smart as many believe. In fact, that is certainly true – otherwise we wouldn't have a chart, such as the above, to guide our trading.<br>
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But in the main stream media at least, hedge fund managers are seen as very wealthy magicians who can conjure up millions for themselves in the markets.<br>
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Today, I will show you my interpretation of the twists and turns of the gold market since the December lows.</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/GoldElliotSinceBearMktLow19Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p align="center"><br></p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">My blue lines are trend lines drawn against the minor highs, and every time the market broke above them that was a clear buy signal.<br>
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My red wave 3 contains its own mini-five up and the spike high to the $1,265 high is my purple wave 3. This week's decline off it is my purple wave 4. Now, fourth waves can be very tricky affairs as.<br>
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Wave 4 could morph into something more complex and even decline a little more before bottoming. But when wave 4 does terminate, a rally should take the market to the purple wave 5 high above $1,270.<br>
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How does this fit onto the bigger picture? Here is the weekly chart going back to 2012:</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/GoldElliotWafeCountSinceLow19Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
<br></font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><br>
The $1,050 December low was the final fifth wave down off the 2011 top, and the rally since then is part of what should be wave 1 of a five up. I have excellent <a href="http://click2.fspeletters.com/t/BQ/uyo/yL4/ABPqCA/ZUE/MjYwMzI3fGh0dHA6Ly9tb25leXdlZWsuY29tL3NwcmVhZC1iZXR0aW5nL3NwcmVhZC1iZXR0aW5nLWdsb3NzYXJ5LTAwMDAyLz91dG1fc291cmNlPU1XVCZhbXA7dXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZhbXA7dXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPTA4LTAxLTIwMTYmYW1wO2Nvb2tpZT1td3RyYWRlci8jVFJBTQ./AQ/BnnN">tramlines</a> drawn (that amends the wedge conjecture in my 10 February email) and the spike high to $1,265 has bounced off the upper tramline as it hit resistance.<br>
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If the market can break above that tramline, it will send a strong bullish signal and the masses of buy-stops placed above the highs that are arrayed along it since 2013 will be touched off – with explosive effect.<br>
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But a word of caution: hedge funds are moving rapidly to the bullish camp (see first chart), so large sell-offs become much more likely. Traders beware!<br>
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Until next time,<br>
<br>
John C Burford</font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3832633
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3832633Bill DowneyWed, 17 Feb 2016 17:55:36 GMTGold Technical Analysis Update<div>
<strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2"><font color="#222222">Everything has changed so far in 2016 for gold. &nbsp;Instead of selling off after an NFP report, it didn't. &nbsp;Instead of selling of going into an FOMC meeting, gold only pulled back for one day and it took off higher again. &nbsp;Instead of selling off during&nbsp;Humphrey&nbsp;Hawkins testimony by Yellen it rallied from 1180 to 1260 over the next 24 hours. &nbsp;Last but not least, &nbsp;the last few years when China would close for their new year, the control boyz would press prices lower. &nbsp;Again the opposite happened and gold rallied right thru the week. &nbsp;When a market begins to do the opposite of what its used to doing it suggests that things have changed for trend. &nbsp;While its not a guarantee we need to be alert when the next Options Expiration comes up at the end of the month, and the next NFP report as well as Fed FOMC meetings. &nbsp;If the same thing happens, it will be another clue that the bear market is over.</font></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2"><font color="#222222">Support is that red channel line near 1190 and then the 1172-1182 area and then hear 1155. &nbsp; Odds favor 1190-1195 or 1172-1182 will be this weeks low.</font></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">T</font><span>his very short term chart on gold shows first support at 1190-1195 (Fib 38% re-trace) and that area was touched on Tuesday. &nbsp;</span>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The 2nd support area is 1167-1172 (Fib 50% re-trace) and that is the area with the strongest support. &nbsp;</font>
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<span style="">Resistance is the blue moving average near 1217 - 1222.</span>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">ON the daily chart below here again we see the 1172 area showing it as a strong support area where the 2015 downtrend line crosses with the uptrend channel. &nbsp;Price is now in 2015 territory and &nbsp;that's another reason bullish development.</font>
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<strong><font face="Verdana" size="2"><strong>Short term cycles</strong></font></strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The last blue cycle bottomed a few days and that happens once in a while. But the rally lasted right up until the last few hours of the &nbsp;cycle window. &nbsp;Here is yet another indication that gold (at the moment) is strong. &nbsp;If this remains the case it's possible that gold will hold the 1190 area instead of moving to 1172. &nbsp; Since the window for a turn doesn't open until Friday and the ideal day is not until Monday for a turn, I'm hoping gold will test the mid-channel line near 1180 and possibly break it by a little to test 1172. &nbsp;That 1172 area is a YEARLY PIVOT NUMBER so it should offer strong support. &nbsp;The other lower line is near the 1160 area but we don't expect it to be tested this week.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The next cycle turn is due Feb 22nd (Plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means the window for a turn opens Friday and will last thru next Thursday. &nbsp;In summary, the intermediate term trend remains up in gold and as long as we keep making the lows on the blue cycle, the odds favor the trend remains up. &nbsp; What we don't want is an inversion where we start making RED CYCLE LOWS. &nbsp;That rotation is usually associated with a market that rises during counter trends and not the main trend. &nbsp; The last ROTATION to a blue cycle low was right at the bear market lows. &nbsp;As long as we remain with blue cycle lows, the odds favor the trend remains up.</font>
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Silver&nbsp;
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Silver has support at 1502-1510 and then at 14.80. &nbsp;One of those two points should be this weeks low. &nbsp; Resistance is 15.39-15.49 and 15.60.
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<strong>Is the bear market over ?</strong>
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We had Dec 2015 - June 2016 as our window for a bear market low and Dec or March as the two most likely months for a turn.
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For a price range we had 850-1050 as the zone where a low was most likely to occur.
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Decembers low was 1045. &nbsp;That means that gold has met the requirements in price and time to bring an end to the bear market.
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Gold must close above at least 1130 on the last trading day of the February in order to move the medium term trend from bearish to neutral.
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More importantly we need to see a weekly and monthly close above 1255 to confirm the medium term trend is no longer bearish.
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Since April 24, 2015 that has been the number to watch on our reports for the medium term. &nbsp; (Last week's close ws 1247).
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Bottom line is that there are many indications that the bear market is over for gold. &nbsp;So far, we've gone from bearish to neutral.
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We still need to see a weekly and monthly close above 1255.&nbsp;
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The key development is the dual yellow downtrend line has been exceeded and not it becomes support. &nbsp; Resistance is the Fib 38% area from 1270-1288. &nbsp;Its the last resistance until the 1322-1360. &nbsp; &nbsp;The TRIPLE GREEN LINE IS THE BULL MARKET UPTREND. &nbsp;Once gold makes that line support, odds are strong the new bull market into 2020 will be underway. &nbsp;Finally, for the medium term trend to go back to bullish the blue moving average (1120) must cross above the red average (1130) with price above both on a monthly closing basis.
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In summary, the trend has gone from bearish to neutral, and as long as we are above 1120 on a monthly closing basis, odds are strong that the bull market has resumed. &nbsp; Let's see what happens into month end. &nbsp; (We have been above the moving averages 6 times during this bear market but have never closed above them on the LAST DAY OF THE MONTH. &nbsp; &nbsp;So we want to see that (1130) and also 1255.
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3827460
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3827460Bill DowneyTue, 16 Feb 2016 13:55:15 GMTGold Medium Term Technical Chart<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1224 – 1312</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~From bearish to NEUTRAL IS WE CLOSE ABOVE 1132 in February.</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1120-1132</p>
<p>The big news technically is the dual downtrend yellow line got taken out and prices exploded to just under the 38% retracement area in gold. That is the last resistance on the weekly chart until the 1309-1322 and then near 1400</p>
<p>As long as we remain above the moving averages (1120-1132) the uptrend that started in 2016 remains in play. Since April of 2014, we have listed at the top of the report that we need a monthly close above 1255 in order to come out of bearish mode and move to neutral. The weekly close was 1247 last Friday (intraday was 1263).</p>
<p>PULLBACK SUPPORT IS THE FIRST YELLOW LINE AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST SUPPORT ATTEMPT THERE near 1180-1200. IF we hold that dual yellow line, gold’s upside will still have potential for a total medium term trend chance.</p>
<p>In summary, the top dual yellow line is support, in between the lines is neutral and a close BELOW THE LOWER DUAL YELLOW LINE will put KEEP the bear trend in gold still in play. Look for the upper dual yellow line to provide SUPPORT and then we’ll see if gold can mount an attack back above 1222-1238.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/XgldWkly16Feb2016aa.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3825146
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3825146Bill DowneyThu, 11 Feb 2016 03:26:21 GMTLong Term Silver Chart & potential bottom forming<p><strong>Silver Long Term</strong></p>
<p>The very long term price of silver suggests that the Handle on the "cup and handle" pattern is just about complete. The bear market low should be where this dual support line resides. Accumulation of silver has been suggested since the 14 area and is still recommended.</p>
<p>Chart from Kimble Charting Solutions with a few tweaks from Goldtrends.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/SilverLongTermCupAndHandleFeb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3812148
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3812148Bill DowneyFri, 05 Feb 2016 11:34:15 GMTGold Short term price and Cycle Forecast<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term price and cycle Forcast</strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>On our last website update to subscribers, we discussed if 1115-1119 holds it would indicate strength and the 2nd spot to watch support would be 1105-1109. We discussed that as long as we held one of those two area’s that the short term would remain bullish. We got to 1109 and turned up. Wednesday took out the 1133 resistance and now we are at the last resistance area (1154-1164) before the 1190 area. Note there is a minor resistance at 1172-1176 as well.</p>
<p>The big development was the push out of the uptrend channel and the momentum channel now rules. As of Thursday, we have arrived at the 2015 uptrend line and now we see if that area holds gold. Look for 1154-1160 to be resistance on and then we have the NFP report on Friday morning. This could be a catalyst for a push to 1190 in gold. But it could also engage the short term cycle TURN coming due starting Friday and into next week. The new support levels are 1129-1138 and then 1117-1122. In summary gold has increased upside velocity and the short term trend remains up, but time to be cautious short term. If we bust through 1165 then 1190 will be most likely target.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/Gol8HrFeb42016AA.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term Cycles</strong></p>
<p>Our last website update to subscribers stated a 70% odds favored higher price into Feb 8th. We also said any close above 1133 would be our confirmation. That has come to pass.</p>
<p>We gave support at 1095-1110 and the low since then was 1109. Thus our last support range was also fulfilled.</p>
<p>The next cycle date is Feb 8th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the WINDOW for a turn opens on Friday and extends to next week (Feb 11th). THE NFP report on Friday will either push us to 1138-1143 or past 1160 and higher to next week (1190 area). Odds are 30% that this coming cycle can get a CYCLE INVERSION. That would mean higher prices for 2 more weeks !!!!</p>
<p>We should look for a turn but to beware that this RED cycle is one of only 4 this year that HAS the HIGHEST INVERSION POTENTIAL. RSI on chart is also in overbought territory. If the bull hasn’t turned back up --- then a pullback is not far off.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/February/GolCyc4Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3802343
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3802343Bill DowneyWed, 03 Feb 2016 01:01:03 GMTChina's Silver Demand and a couple of other charts<h1>Chart of the Day: A “Silver Rush” in Chin</h1>
<p>By <a href="http://nondollarreport.com/author/eric-fry/">Eric Fry</a><br>
January 30, 2016</p>
<p>Sometimes, if you can’t get to a party, you’ve got to bring the party to you. This approximate philosophy seems to be inspiring a surge of silver buying by the Chinese.</p>
<p>Since the Chinese government is making it difficult for its citizens to take currency out of the country, many Chinese nationals are bringing a “better currency” into the country. They are buying silver hand over fist.</p>
<p><a href="http://nondollarreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Silver_Rush-550.jpg"><img width="550" height="490" alt="Silver_Rush-550" src="http://nondollarreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Silver_Rush-550.jpg"></a></p>
<p>China’s silver imports recently hit their highest level in four years. Most likely, the Chinese are stepping up their silver purchases as a way to protect themselves from the risk that their currency, the renminbi, will continue to lose value against the U.S. dollar.</p>
<p>During the last five months, the renminbi has fallen more than 5% against the dollar. This loss of value, combined with China’s collapsing property and stock markets, has triggered a massive “capital flight” from China into various offshore assets.</p>
<p>A whopping $1 trillion has fled the country during the last 12 months, according to estimates by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s about $770 for every man, woman and child in China!</p>
<p><a href="http://nondollarreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Capital_Stampede-550.png"><img width="550" height="457" alt="Capital_Stampede-550" src="http://nondollarreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Capital_Stampede-550.png"></a></p>
<p>Because so much capital is fleeing the country so quickly, the Chinese government has stepped up its efforts to block the exits.</p>
<p>The laws and regulations that were already on the books limited annual overseas transfers to $50,000 per person. But for many years, wealthy Chinese have used a variety of tactics to maneuver around this limitation.</p>
<p>The government is now making the game much more difficult.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-27/here-s-what-china-is-doing-to-tighten-the-noose-on-capital-flows">Bloomberg News</a> provided the following insight into the Chinese government’s latest efforts to prevent capital flight:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><em>Increased scrutiny of transfers overseas</em></strong> <em>– Some Shanghai banks have recently asked their outlets to closely check whether individuals sent money abroad by breaking up foreign currency purchases into smaller transactions and to take punitive action if violations were discovered, according to people familiar with the matter. Each person can send $50,000 abroad annually, so large sums can be transferred by utilizing the bank accounts and quotas of a range of individuals, a tactic known as smurfing.</em></li>
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<li><strong><em>Outbound investment quotas frozen</em></strong> <em>– China has suspended new applications under the Renminbi Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) program, which allows yuan from the mainland to be used to buy offshore securities denominated in the currency. It has also refrained from granting new quotas for residents to invest in overseas markets via the QDII program.</em></li>
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<li><strong><em>UnionPay debit card clampdown</em></strong> <em>– New measures were introduced in December to crack down on illegal China UnionPay card machines, which were suspected of being used to channel funds offshore via fake transactions, most notably in Macau casinos.</em></li>
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<ul>
<li><strong><em>Underground banking clampdown</em></strong> <em>– China busted the nation’s biggest “underground bank,” which handled 410 billion yuan ($62 billion) of illegal foreign exchange transactions, the official</em> People’s Daily <em>reported in November. The Shanghai branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said last week that it will crack down on illegal currency transactions, including underground banking.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>Perhaps these new government tactics will slow the exodus of capital over the short term. But capital controls rarely succeed over the long term. To the contrary, they are an ominous warning sign – the reddest of red flags. They announce to the world that it’s time to get local currency out of the country as fast as you can, and then swap that currency for hard assets offshore.</p>
<p>But since that is easier said than done in China, some Chinese nationals are doing the next best thing: They are importing the hard assets from offshore and using their local currency to do it.</p>
<p>So far, the recent surge of Chinese silver buying has not sparked a corresponding bounce in the silver price… at least not yet.</p>
<p>But interestingly, the last time the Chinese ramped up their silver buying was in 2009 and 2010 – several months before the silver price rocketed from $15 an ounce to $50 an ounce.</p>
<p>So if past is prologue, there might be a great big silver bull market heading our way.</p>
<p>Cheers,</p>
<p>Eric J. Fry<br>
For <em>The Non-Dollar Report</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></em></p>
<p><em>The NFP report on Friday will most likely be the event of the week for Gold. &nbsp;</em></p>
<p><em>Resistance is the 1130-1138 area and then 1142-1146. &nbsp;Most important is the uptrend channel and the momentum channel in short term gold is meeting at the 1130-1138 area. &nbsp;A Friday close above 1143 would put price just above the uptrend channel and open the potential for the momentum channel to continue tracking gold price. &nbsp;A close below 1115-1117 would take us out of the momentum channel and expose gold to retest the 1090 area. &nbsp;There's also support at 1101-1109. &nbsp; The bottom line is things might remain quiet in gold on Wednesday and Thursday in anticipation of the NFP payroll report on Friday morning. &nbsp;The short term trend remains up. &nbsp;A close below 1101 would turn the trend neutral. &nbsp;</em></p>
<p><em><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolHrly2Feb2016C.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></em></p>
<p><em>Weekly gold arriving at the moving averages (1117 Blue and 1139 Red). &nbsp;We need two weekly and a MONTHLY CLOSE above both to go from Bearish Medium Term Gold to Neutral. &nbsp; Neutral is not bullish, but it ain't bearish. &nbsp;The Dual Yellow trend line's upper end is the 1172-1222 area. Look how there is almost no resistance above the Dual Yellow lines for quite a distance. A monthly close above 1255 would be a significant event. &nbsp;It takes a monthly close below 1033 in order to extend the bear market lower. &nbsp;Odds still favor the low is either in Dec 2015 (Armstrong 51.6 month cycle) or March/April 2016 (A Fibonacci 55 months from the high). &nbsp;So far, December has been the lowest price at 1045. &nbsp;If the bear market in gold is over, it needs to take out the Dual Yellow trend line on a monthly close for further confirmation.&nbsp;</em></p>
<p><em><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolWkly2Feb2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></em></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3797013
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3797013Bill DowneySat, 30 Jan 2016 00:51:54 GMTGold important price and time points on the Technical chartsLet's take a look at what the charts have to say
<p><strong>Gold Cycles and Technicals</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle is due Feb 8th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the cycle opens up by Feb 5th. &nbsp;We pulled back from weekly resistance 1122-1127 hitting 1128 and pulled back to first support, the downtrend line from the October peak at the highest blue cycle on the chart. &nbsp;There's another line underneath that pegs support at 1101-1109 (1095 also). &nbsp;Bottom line, the short term uptrend is still in play, but cycles will be here by the end of next week. &nbsp; We can still pullback a bit more and move back up during mid week next week. We got to 1108 on Friday but reversed back up there so we know there's a band of support at 1101-1109. &nbsp;That's what it comes down to early next week. &nbsp;On the resistance side, look for 1122-1125 and then 1128-1133 where the 200 day average resides. &nbsp;We get above 1145 then look for 1160-1190.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In summary, &nbsp;the 200 day average is the biggest target if the bulls win at 1133. &nbsp;The bears meanwhile would like to get back below 1095. &nbsp;if the cycle plays out, there should be one more push higher (odds 70%).&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolCyc29Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>HUI GOLD STOCKS</strong></p>
<p>After 6 months of not making a new low, the HUI index gave way and then did something that should be watched closely, or at least on your radar. &nbsp;Prices reversed and marched right back to a strong resistance area on the chart. &nbsp;The first thing a bear market must do is reverse a new yearly low. &nbsp;It has done that. We should at least make note of it. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;Now comes the 1st resistance test and that's the ability to move above the first resistance points of the market. &nbsp;A close above this area would favor the HUI moving to the 140-145 area. &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/Hui29Jan2016TargetChart.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold and the short term current price point</strong></p>
<p>The bottom line for next week is we must get above 1133-1143 in order to push higher (1160-1190). &nbsp;As long as we're in the channel, we're in the 2016 uptrend. &nbsp;Support should be 1095-1107. &nbsp; Resistance we have 1122-1127 then the 200 day at 1133 and the November High at 1143. &nbsp;A new MONTH begins Monday.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/Gol8HrInflectionPoint29Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>On a medium term basis,</strong> the key is really the moving averages 1119-1138 and the dual down trend line. &nbsp;That is the strongest resistance on the chart and the last solid resistance (medium term) until 1272-1322. &nbsp;This is the price potential if gold can exceed these two most important resistance point until a couple of hundred bucks higher. &nbsp; Key next week also is the November high at 1143. &nbsp;We get a close above there and 1172-1190 would be the target. &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/XgldWkly29Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>On the intermediate term time basis, a Feb high and pullback into March is still the most favored outcome, so watch that cycle turn and the November high. &nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>On a longer term basis</strong></p>
<p>Odds favor the bear market in gold ends Dec 2015-June 2015 (with March as the ideal) in a price range of 850-1050. &nbsp; If the low wasn't December then the Ideal time for it will be in March on the 55th month of the correction. &nbsp;<br></p>
<p>We needed a close above 1119.50 on Friday to be above the 34 week moving average. We got within 90 cents. &nbsp;But we did not get above it. &nbsp;Is a dollar close enough? &nbsp; &nbsp;Not if we follow the rule. &nbsp;But it should be watched just the same. &nbsp;Nothing is that PRECISE. &nbsp;Nevertheless, we did not get a MONTHLY close above the average. &nbsp;Doesn't mean we won't in February. &nbsp;Suffice to say, this 1130-1145 area in gold is the most important area for a couple hundred dollars.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3790039
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3790039Bill DowneyTue, 26 Jan 2016 17:52:28 GMTGold Reaches 1st weekly resistance and highest price since Nov 9 2015<p>&nbsp;According to the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, in December Chinese gold imports via the main conduit Hong Kong surged to the highest in more than two years, as - in Reuters words - <strong>"investors lost faith in collapsing stock markets and a weakening currency and snapped up bullion."</strong></p>
<p><strong>That was the highest monthly number since October 2013 when imports stood at 130 tonnes</strong>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/China%20Gold%20Imports.jpg"><img width="600" height="394" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/China%20Gold%20Imports_0.jpg"></a></p>
<p>According to Bloomberg, "Investors took advantage of the lowest global prices in almost six years to stock up on bullion amid share market gyrations and concerns the central bank would let the currency depreciate to boost slowing growth in the world’s second-biggest economy. <strong>Consumers were also buying in the run-up to Chinese New Year in February, the peak demand season</strong>."</p>
<p>As China's equities slumped and its yuan currency finished 2015 with a record yearly loss, <strong>"people looked at other investment&nbsp; alternatives that's why there was huge demand for gold,"</strong> said Brian Lan, managing director at gold dealer GoldSilver Central in&nbsp; Singapore.</p>
<p>'t just suddenly soaring demand for phiscal gold: a jump in physical deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange was also a sign of demand, Wang said.<br></p>
<p>Also, Hong Kong wasn't the only source: Swiss exports of gold to China jumped to 59 tons in December from 16.5 tons a month earlier, according to the website of Swiss Federal Customs Administration.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></p>
<p>Gold has arrived at 1st weekly resistance in the 1122-1125 area. &nbsp;Additional resistance lies at the 1129-1136 area. &nbsp;Today's options expiration has unshakled and now the FOMC minutes and meeting will adjourn on Wednesday afternoon. &nbsp;Key is whether the FED comes out with more dovish statements in lieu of what has happened to the stock markets globally and the deteriorating global economies. &nbsp;These are the highest gold prices we have seen since November 6th 2015. &nbsp;It is still possible to reach resistance # 2 as short covering and buying are taking place. &nbsp;Odds are that would take place tomorrow during mid week Wednesday if we do plow above 1125. &nbsp;Support is now forming at the 1095-1102 area and the 1080-1085 area. &nbsp;Short term trends remain up, but odds do favor gold's peak this week to be either 1122-1125 or 1129-1136. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/Gol8Hr26Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"></strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>On a medium term basis, &nbsp;the blue moving average is at 1119 and the Red at 1138. &nbsp;Thus we should see perhaps resistance attempts at both places. &nbsp;It takes TWO monthly closes above both averages for the medium term to go from bearish to neutral and it takes a monthly close for the blue average to be above the red and price as well to get a trend change to bullish. &nbsp;The dual yellow lines are also defined as the current downtrend lines lines to watch. &nbsp; Two monthly closes above the dual yellow line would be 2nd confirmation that the medium term trend has turned up for the 1st time since 2013. &nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolWkly26Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"></strong></p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3783030
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3783030Bill DowneyMon, 25 Jan 2016 15:56:14 GMTBig picture charts of Stocks, Notes, Commodities and Gold<div class="pageTitleOuterContainer">
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<p><strong>Gold Report ~ Jan 25 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1255 to bring attention to the medium term trend. Two weekly and a monthly close above 1141 would upgrade the trend from bearish to neutral.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong>– The intermediate term is in neutral mode for the most part but a close above 1114 flips the trend to bullish.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Bullish</strong>- Any close above 1114 extends the trend. Any close below 1072 reverses the trend to down.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1107-1114 2nd tier 1122-1132</p>
<p>Support 1082-1092 2nd tier 1065-1075</p>
<p>OPTIONS EXPIRATION for Feb gold ends after Trading on Tuesday Jan 26th. Thus we’re going to find out this week if gold can move and sustain above 1100. The shackles will be released, and now its up to gold.</p>
<p>Also, rollover out of Feb Gold and into April will take place on the futures markets.</p>
<p>On Wednesday, minutes of the FOMC will be released. &nbsp;Keep a watch for that also as a potential price mover in gold.</p>
<p><strong>What about the Stock Market?</strong></p>
<p>The correction thus far has reached the deepest level of long term uptrend support at the moving averages and trend line. Here is where the stock market should try and bounce and it may be underway from last week’s low. The long term averages are at 16030 – 16700. A monthly close below 15900-16000 is the next step as to whether we get a continued selloff. Watch January’s close to see if it’s above 16000. As we arrive in February, &nbsp;the US stock market is at critical levels. It has not yet broken the long term uptrend. &nbsp; But on this next Chart.........</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/DowMonJan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>Dow Quarterly Chart</strong></p>
<p>On Dec 31st we posted this chart on Twitter. &nbsp;It gave a long term sell signal on the quarterly chart. &nbsp;Since then a correction has taken us to the chart above. &nbsp;Monthly closes below 15300 would be add to the bearishness already witnessed. &nbsp;Odds favor that a rebound at these levels will take place, but we doubt if the carnage is over in stocks.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/DowSarSellSignalJan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>What about interest rates?</strong></p>
<p>Interest rates have at this moment moved to neutral on a long term basis. But the real decision continues to be put off as rates keep hitting off the grend trend line. We have completed a Fibonacci 34 years of lower rates. Odds favor that higher rates are in our future. Odds also favor that it will be due to FEAR and not global growth.</p>
<p>Higher rates should be bullish for gold. Perhaps not right away, but certainly once the trend gets established higher. There is no other chart more important as one that shows the COST OF MONEY - for it sets the pace of everything else. &nbsp;As we arrive In February, the long term trend for rates has yet to turn up.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/TnxMonJan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>What about Commodities?</strong></p>
<p>The chart shows we are at the most important of all support points. Below this area warns of Global Depression.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/CRBWithElliotLongTerm.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>What about Gold?</strong></p>
<p>Gold is nearing the Edge of the Wedge, but it still can have one final low in March/June 2016. &nbsp;If gold is to turn up in 2016, odds favor that it needs commodities to turn up also.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GoldEdgeOfTheWedgeJan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>The chart below shows the key area we need to move above (1107-1114) in gold in order to favor higher towards 1121-1131 or 1141-1146. Support is 1088-1094 and then 1072-1082 for this week. IF we can close above 1114, odds favor moving higher into month end and 1st week of February.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/Gol8Hr25Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
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</div>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3780260
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3780260Bill DowneyTue, 19 Jan 2016 17:31:57 GMTGold short term price and cycle forcast<p><font style="font-size: 14px;" face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 14px;" face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif">On a short term basis gold is trying to form an uptrend channel from the November lows. &nbsp;From a pattern perspective, it is choppy and overlapping from lows to highs. &nbsp;That in-itself suggests (so far at least) that it is a counter trend rally. &nbsp;In other words, the main medium term trend is still down overall. The pullback from the highs retraced a Fibonacci 61% almost to exactness, and then pushed back to 1100 before this latest pullback where it now brings us to the 1085 level. &nbsp;On this short term basis, price needs to hold at or near that 1072 level in order to maintain the current upswing. &nbsp;A close below 1065 and then 1055 would warn that gold is once again weakening and will open up the potential for gold to move to new lows under 1040. Support is the 1070-1080 area and resistance is 1097-1107. &nbsp;It takes a close above 1114 to favor higher prices into February. &nbsp;A close below 1065 would put a bearish short term damper on gold. &nbsp;(Subscribers to gold trends went long gold at 1072 (just one dollar above the low established on the pullback for a short term trade). Lets now go look at the short term cycles.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 14px;" face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolHr19Jan2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 14px;" face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif">Gold Cycles</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 14px;" face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif">The next short term cycle turn is Jan 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means that the gold window for an upturn begins tomorrow but could be as late as next week. &nbsp;We discussed on the website updates that gold was expected to pullback this week from that push we got from 1072 to 1100. &nbsp;That pullback is taking place and now its a matter of when gold makes this next short term low on the blue cycle. &nbsp;These cycles work about 70% of the time at the turns. &nbsp;The other 30% are called inversions. &nbsp;This is when prices don't turn on a cycle window but instead move in the same direction until the next cycle. &nbsp;When that happens, the colors rotate and the red becomes the place on the chart where bottoms occur and vice versa. &nbsp;In summary, we are looking for gold to establish a short term low within the upcoming blue cycle and &nbsp;then rally into the week of Feb 9th. &nbsp;Odds on that are about 70%. Since the pattern is choppy and overlapping its good to be careful because it does warn that this rebound (so far) is a weak one. &nbsp;In other words, &nbsp;there is more of a chance of inversions occurring when the market is rallying in a counter trend move. &nbsp;Keep that in mind. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 14px;" face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif">Should the blue cycle make a low, the next rally into Feb would initially target the 1122-1127 area. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3768414
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3768414Bill DowneyWed, 13 Jan 2016 15:01:53 GMTGold support near 1080 could provide this weeks low<h1>About That "Surging" Chinese Trade Data, There Is Just One Thing...</h1>
<p><br></p>Submitted by <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden">Tyler Durden</a> on 01/13/2016&nbsp;<br>
<p><br></p>
<p>While Chinese New Year seasonals are undoubtedly one factor in last night's "surprisingly good" Chinese trade data, the following chart shows the level of "bullshit factor" was extreme by anyone's measure. <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-13/even-goldman-says-china-cooking-economic-books">Three years ago we first brought&nbsp;<strong>China's 'fake' trade data</strong>&nbsp;and abundant discrepancies to the public's attention</a>&nbsp;and despite an apparent crackdown by regulators, the <strong>gaping difference between imports from Hong Kong and exports to Hong Kong is downright embarrassing</strong> for China's SAFE as it is clear that capital outflows are being disguised as exports with <strong><em>"over-invoicing"</em></strong> back in play.</p>
<p>Last night, China unveiled the following double-rainbow of better-than-expected trade data with Exports shockingly positive YoY (smashing expectations of a furtther collapse)...</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/20160112_china4.jpg"><img width="600" height="629" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/20160112_china4_0.jpg"></a></p>
<p><em>Chinese New Year seasonals (export-boosting into year-end) and despite China <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/china-imports-record-crude-oil-as-price-crash-accelerates-buying">importing a record amount of oil</a>, or 33.2 million tons, the trade surplus apparently surged and everything is proved awesome in China.</em></p>
<p>But, as we initially explained in 2013, one reason for the "surge" in recent data may be the demand of the new Politburo to telegraph that <em>all is well</em> following the recent turmoil since the magnitude of the surprise beat&nbsp; <strong>could indicate exporters’ rush to finish year-end orders and government pressure to report exports before the end of the year to reach the government’s growth target.</strong></p>
<p>However, possible explanation for how Chinese companies are cooking their export books comes from none other than Goldman:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>“It is possible that local governments may have tried to boost exports data by either making round trips in special trade zones”</strong> or by exporting “earlier than otherwise in an attempt to improve the annual exports data,” Goldman Sachs’ Beijing- based economists Yu Song and Yin Zhang wrote the same day.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Rushed shipments and even faked exports to secure tax refunds may have contributed to the stronger growth data</strong>, according to Alistair Thornton and Ren Xianfang, Beijing-based analysts at IHS Inc.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Some trading companies are turning to transportation providers like Shenzhen Global Express Logistics Ltd. for help in shipping goods through so-called bonded zones to claim export tax rebates or charge higher import prices for goods without them physically leaving the country. Shenzhen Global offers customs clearing and other freight services including a “one-day tour,” Lin Yongtai, a manager with the company in the city bordering Hong Kong, said in a telephone interview.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For a fee of 1,000 yuan ($161) per vehicle per day, the company will drive trucks into warehouses in bonded zones, where cargo must clear customs, so that businesses can obtain a refund of value-added tax on the “export” of their products or boost sale prices for goods that carry the cachet of being imported.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>“A poor villager can boast he has thousands of yuan of turnover every day, but people later discover he only has one bull -- he takes the bull out every morning and brings it back every evening,” Lin said. “The same applies to some parts of China’s foreign trade.</strong>”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><u><strong>Of course, there is also the simple test of matching one country's exports to another one's imports (after all, it is a closed loop).</strong></u></p>
<p>To wit... <em><strong>The massive over-invoicing "Exports" to HK relative to the smooth HK "Imports" from China...</strong></em></p>
<p><img width="600" height="315" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/01-overflow/20160113_chinatrade_0.jpg"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Once more, it appears that China is literally pulling numbers out of thin air:</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>UBS economists led by Hong Kong-based Wang Tao pointed to a “quite obvious discrepancy” in the growth of China’s exports to Taiwan and South Korea and those economies’ reported imports from China in recent months, even as historically they have tracked each other well.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Finally, that China is openly making up numbers is no surprise: it will continue doing that until, like everywhere else, the discrepancy between perception and reality (usually manifested in the case of China by a lot of angry people breaking something or simply rioting) becomes too glaring for even the most optimistically inclined to ignore.</p>
<p>(End of Zerohedge Article)</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></p>
<p>Although we can't rule out 1067-1072 A gold low should form today (Wednesday) potentially at 1077-1080 and it could possible be the low for this week. &nbsp;We've tested the 50% retracement of this rally and thus a push back to 1087-1094 (1st resistance) could be in the cards for Wednesday. &nbsp; The ideal target remains 1067-1072, but lets see what gold does at the 1080 support point. &nbsp;The 1080 area is the yearly 2014 support and is a logical place for price to try and bounce as well. &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolHrly13Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3756212
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3756212Bill DowneyMon, 11 Jan 2016 15:49:45 GMTChina & Gold and Silver Charts<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
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<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">,<br>
<br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>China, The End Of History And The Last Great Commodities Boom</strong></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Jan. 10, 2016</strong></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">China's economic deceleration is occurring because it has reached a particular point of development where the easy economic gains have been made.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Significantly lower economic growth in China is now the way of the future.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The greatest commodities boom ever known has come to an end, with sharply weaker commodity prices now the new normal.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Article &nbsp;(Charts follow article on gold and silver)</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The drivers of global economic growth have changed with the end of emerging markets as the key engine of economic growth.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">It was only just over two decades ago that philosopher Francis Fukuyama released his controversial book, The End of History and the Last Man. In it, he expounded his theory that the collapse of communism and adoption of liberal democracy in Eastern Europe, through a series of velvet revolutions, broke the traditional paradigm through which mankind viewed history. These revolutions, he argued, symbolized the end of mankind's ideological evolution and the adoption of the final form of government.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Now we are witnessing events of equal magnitude, with the last major socialist stalwart China emerging from the economic darkness and embracing the central tenets of capitalism and the free market system to become a global economic super power.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The completion of this transition, I believe, signifies the end of one global developmental epoch and the emergence of a new global economic system which needs to be viewed through a different conceptual paradigm. This paradigm shift brings with it considerable changes for the global economic system and financial markets with it signifying the end of the last great commodities boom witnessed in modern times.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The creation of the greatest commodities boom ever</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">After the end of the civil war and the accession to power of the communists under Mao, China's economy stagnated. Then from the 1970s, China initiated a series of policies aimed at modernizing the nation. It was these that led to China's eventual rapid economic and social transition, triggering the greatest commodities boom ever witnessed in modern times.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">As China modernized, and the required infrastructure was developed and put in place to support its economic transition, its consumption of iron ore, coking and thermal coal, base metals and other raw materials skyrocketed.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">It pays to be a 'catch-up economy'</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The boom really heated up in the early 2000s as Beijing's economic reforms started to gain traction and the experiment with the free market began in earnest. It is easy to see why China's rate of modernization and economic growth was so rapid and fueled what is probably the greatest commodity boom of all time.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Most importantly, at the start of the development cycle it pays to be a 'catch-up economy'.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">You see, provided that other factors are equal, poorer less developed economies grow far more rapidly than partially developed or developed countries. This is because they are coming from a lower economic and developmental baseline.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">They also have the advantage of being able to rapidly close the development gap by following the lead of developed nations through technology transfers and capital injections to achieve 'catch-up growth'.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Another key factor in China's rapid development was the immense physical capital that it was able to access and mobilize resources in order to develop new productive assets and infrastructure.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">This is because both the size and accessibility of a country's physical capital significantly influences the pace of growth. In the case of China, these are tremendous and can never be replicated by another nation with them being specific to China.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Foremost among them is China's copious population which is the largest of any country, thus endowing it with tremendous human capital. This human capital for a variety of socio-economic and cultural reasons was ready to be mobilized with a range of catalysts putting in motion the greatest wave of rural-to-urban migration the world has ever seen.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">In fact, this rate of migration was unprecedented, causing the population of the majority of China's major cities to double or even more between 1990 and 2000. The scale of this migration continued to grow throughout the 21st century, with an incredible 145 million migrants in 2009 alone.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Urbanization is an important driver of economic growth, and for it to be occurring on such an unprecedented scale is one of the decisive reasons for China's rapid economic transition.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">As a population migrates from country to city seeking better lives and higher incomes, consumption patterns change. This is because a higher income per person results in a marked increase in demand for consumer goods, food, services, and accordingly, the raw materials required to produce them. Once incomes start to rise they create a growing middle-class that causes demand to surge.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">China's massive wave of urban migration created unprecedented demand for the resources to build cities as well as the transport, technology, energy and logistics to support them.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">It fueled an unparalleled construction boom that was responsible for China's construction industry becoming the single most important consumer globally of a range of commodities, including steel, copper, zinc and nickel.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Such a massive population shift only added additional momentum to China's rapid pace of economic development with it providing a readily available and super-exploitable workforce to support the process of industrialization. Between 2001 and 2011, China's industrial output more than doubled and this rapid growth further stimulated the already swift rate of rural-to-urban migration.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Rapacious commodities demand triggers once in a lifetime bull market</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">As China industrialized and wages as well as the standard of living improved, there was even greater consumption and demand for resources. By 2011, China had become the world's single largest energy consumer and the second largest consumer of crude after the U.S. This ardent appetite for energy caused China's consumption of thermal coal and oil (NYSEARCA:USO) to double between 2001 and 2011.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Furthermore, the surge in demand for basic materials is particularly evident when looking at China's consumption of iron ore and other metals.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">China was responsible for 53% of the world's iron ore consumption in 2011, or more than four times the amount of iron ore it had consumed a decade earlier. For the same year, iron ore imports amounted to 61% of the global total or almost eight times more than China's iron ore imports in 2001.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The consumption of copper (NYSEARCA:CPER) grew more than fourfold for the decade from 2001 to 2011 when China became the largest single global consumer of copper.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">This swelling demand for raw materials caused the prices of commodities such as iron ore, coal and copper to soar to stratospheric heights, triggering an investment frenzy among miners as they sought to cash on the 'boom that would never end'.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The price of iron ore peaked in 2011 at $187 per tonne or more than 14 times higher than it was a decade earlier. Coking coal, another key ingredient in steel manufacturing, peaked at $147 per tonne at the end of 2008 or almost four times its value in 2001.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Other metals also grew exponentially in value, copper more than doubled in value between 2001 and 2011, while zinc's price by 2008 had quadrupled in comparison to 2001. Nickel (NYSEARCA:NINI) also wasn't left behind, with its price peaking in 2007 at eight times higher than it was in 2001.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Meanwhile, China's insatiable thirst for energy saw thermal coal, its primary energy source, peak at $192 per ton in 2007 or six times its value in 2001.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">This rapacious demand for commodities triggered a soaring commodities bull market that many industry insiders claimed would never end.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The end of the greatest commodities boom ever</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Nonetheless, like all economic bubbles, it eventually did end for one key reason, China's economy came off the boil and its economic growth began to slow markedly. By the third quarter 2015, China's GDP growth had slumped to 6.9% or 50 basis points lower than a year before and its lowest level since the global financial crisis.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">It is expected that this decline will continue and I certainly don't expect to see any return to the double-digit figures recorded during the heady days of its economic boom between 2004 and 2010.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">There are a number of reasons for this rapid economic growth and then decline.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Key being that once a particular point of development is reached economic growth slows as the advantages of being a 'catch-up' economy decline.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">China has now reached that point on its developmental journey where rapid industrialization, urbanization and expansion of the economy has peaked and is now falling into decline. This means that future economic growth will never again reach the heady double-digit figures of the past decade, which triggered a massive demand for basic materials but will instead continue at a more sedate rate.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The latest data out of China confirms this. China's third-quarter GDP growth rate dipped to 6.9%, its lowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. Analysts and economists expect China's growth to slow even further, with full-year 2015 GDP estimated to be 6.5%, which will decline to 6.2% annually by 2017.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">With China being a leading buyer of commodities, it certainly doesn't bode well for their outlook and explains why commodities prices have plunged.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">In fact, I believe that what we are now seeing is a paradigm shift among commodities and the move to a 'new normal' with indicators highlighting that double-digit growth is a thing of the past for China.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Two economic sectors that are among the largest consumers of raw materials in China are caught in intractable slumps.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The all-important construction sector is in terminal decline as is real estate development. By November of this year, investment in real estate development was less than a tenth of what it was at the start of the year and there are signs this downward trend will continue. Substantial inventories of vacant housing, coupled with slowing rural to urban migration, means that it will be some time before there is any uptick in demand for housing.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">This reduces the pressures on infrastructure which means the demand for new and/or additional infrastructure is declining, further placing pressure on the demand for commodities.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">I expect the rate of rural to urban migration to slow even further. This is because declining rates of industrialization, reduced labor intensity in manufacturing because of technological advancements, and falling industrial output are reducing the demand for labor and keeping a cap on wages, thereby removing probably the most important incentive.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The decline in industrial activity is already apparent. For December 2015, China's industrial activity contracted for the fifth successive month. Then there is the decline in industrial growth, with output for 2015 having halved in comparison to 2011. Not only is this impacting the rate of rural to urban migration, but it is also having a sharply negative effect on the demand for commodities, particularly steel, base metals as well as energy such as oil and coal.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">There won't be any uptick in industrial activity for the foreseeable future because of softer global demand for China's manufactured products coupled with the considerable excess productive capacity that arose during the boom years.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Significantly lower economic growth is the way of the future</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">There are a range of indicators that highlight that economic growth in China will remain sharply lower for the foreseeable future and that the days of heady double-digit growth are well and truly over.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Key among these is that China's rapid modernization and expansion has come to an end.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Once a certain point of economic development has been reached, the benefits of being a 'catch-up economy' decline. This is because the easy gains have been made, while the higher standards of living attained increase the costs associated with industrial activity, making these economies' exports less competitive and investment more expensive.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">As a result, economic stagnation can ensue. Industrial growth starts to languish because of declining returns and a lack of investment, while higher incomes and standards of living lead to a lack of innovation and declining productivity.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">It is clear that this is occurring in China. Industrial profits continue to decline, falling for the tenth consecutive month in November, while manufacturing investment in 2015 is down by 80% from where it was in 2011.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Then there is the risk of China falling into the 'middle income trap'. This would see it caught in a permanent state of economic stagnation interfused by extreme boom and bust cycles, much as Brazil has experienced in recent years. The middle income trap is where a developing economy's growth slows sharply and per capita income levels stagnate, thereby trapping the economy in the middle income category. There are many causes for this, but key among them is an over-reliance on driving economic growth through the extraction and export of minerals as well as the manufacture and export of low tech goods.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">With signs of this occurring, Beijing has moved quickly to adjust its policies in an attempt to prevent China from being permanently caught in this rut and make the transition to a developed economy. This has meant creating an environment conducive to the development of wealth and emergence of a broad-based middle class.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">To achieve this, Beijing needs to rebalance China's economy from one focused on investment in infrastructure and industry to consumption-driven growth, requiring it to reverse many of the policies that were responsible for its rapid economic development.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">As a result, Beijing has instituted a range of policies aimed at fostering growth in the country's weak services sector, reining in the excessive growth of the past and promoting consumption. This means that economic growth can only slow further and that the demand for commodities will continue to decline.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Can other developing nations pick up the slack?</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Some analysts and industry insiders are touting the emergence of a range of other developing economies as being capable of picking up the massive excess capacity that now exists globally and fueling a new commodity boom.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Among those countries are Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Pakistan and Nigeria. But this appears highly unlikely with each of them lacking the unique characteristics that fueled China's massive and rapid economic growth, triggering the greatest commodities boom of modern time. This is because each lacks the dynamics of China as well as the massive population base, access to vital resources, broad skill and educational base and geographic size of China.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">These factors along with each of them being substantially further along the developmental curve than China when it first started to modernize, means that the rate of industrial growth, infrastructure development and urbanization will be slower and not last as long.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">What does this mean for investors?</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Despite the claims of some analysts that commodities are long overdue to rebound, what we are witnessing is a fundamental paradigm shift in how to view the global economy and commodities. The shift to weaker commodities prices is reverberating across global markets.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Not only has it triggered the end of rapid growth among some of the world's fastest growing emerging markets such as Brazil, but it has endangered the sustainability of the global financial system. This is because many miners and emerging economies have gorged themselves on cheap debt in order to live above their means along with the forlorn hope that an imminent recovery in commodities will fund repayments.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Clearly, there is no recovery on the way and this has left a number of commodities miners in precarious financial positions.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Mining heavy weights BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP)(NYSE:BBL) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) REMAIN determined to grow production while cutting costs through economies of scale to drive higher cost producers out of the market</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Bottom line</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">China's emergence as a global economic super power and the abrupt end to its catch-up growth phase has created a paradigm shift for the global economy and financial markets. It signifies the end of the greatest commodity boom of modern times and a fundamental shift in the growth drivers of the global economy, with the emerging markets growth model that had dominated global growth now seemingly broken. This means that investors need to become accustomed to significantly lower commodity prices that, with the exception of crude, now appear to be the new normal.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">(End of Public Internet Article - Did not see Author listed)</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>GoldTrend Charts</strong></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Short Term</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The next short term cycle turn is in play (Dec 10th - Plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;Odds are 70% that a pullback comes in play either at the 1112 area (reached) or the 1122-1127 area. &nbsp; IF we do get this pullback, &nbsp;the 1072-1085 area should be a good support zone. &nbsp;The next cycle turn is January 23rd (Plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp; Any close above 1112 after Wednesday would favor higher into the next cycle and 1st resistance would become 1122-1127.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GolCyc11Jan2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Seasonality</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">There is no doubt that gold likes January. &nbsp; That is why if there is a pullback into the next short term cycle, odds favor it will be a good buying opportunity. &nbsp; Any close above 1112 after Wednesday could warn of a cycle inversion and higher prices into the next blue cycle (Odds at 30%). &nbsp;If we get the pullback, odds favor it will be a good trade opportunity. &nbsp;If cycles play for us, then the final week of January into February should provide gold with upside.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GoldBestMonthJan2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></font></p>
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<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Gold's Longest Bear Markets</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The chart below shows the longest bear markets in gold. &nbsp;If we do get a repeat, &nbsp;we are still a year away from the low. &nbsp; Keep in mind this chart is only a gauge for you to view the length of this current bear market and should not be considered a timing tool. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/GoldLongestBearMarketsJan2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Silver</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The accumulation of physical silver should be a strong consideration between 10 to 14 dollars per ounce. &nbsp;I personally added some for my own physical holdings. &nbsp; The maximum draw down should be the 2008 low at 8 dollars. &nbsp; On a short term basis, &nbsp;resistance is 14.40 - 14.60 and 16.25. &nbsp; Support is 13.10-13.60.</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/SilMonLongTerm200MonthAveAndTrendLineJan2016.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Stock Market</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The stock market is approaching a key support area, the 34 month moving average. &nbsp;Since 1975, this is where the market either crashes or supports. &nbsp; Odds favor a bounce is going to be attempted between 1815-1915 on the S&amp;P. &nbsp; Any weekly/Monthly close below 16000 on the Dow would favor much lower prices. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3752239
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3752239Bill DowneyWed, 06 Jan 2016 05:06:51 GMTGold and the medium term price chart<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1230 – 1330</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1126-1147</p>
<p>We have been calling for a low to develop in gold between Oct 2015 and June 2016. We are now in the window to turn the trend. Now price has to perform in order to complete the bottom. Until we get two monthly closes above the moving averages and that dual yellow downtrend line, the trend is still down. On the other hand, we have tested where there is three major support lines and we have just supported on our first RED LINE on the chart. Long term readers know those lines have been on this chart for over 5 years. Those red lines are the IDEAL price range for “the low” to occur. The first clue that the real “low” is in place would be for gold to get two monthly closes above the dual gold downtrend lines. Another clue will come when the BLUE moving averages close above the red average with price above both. In summary, price and time are finally coming together for the “low” to develop.</p>
<p>Gold closed the year above the first red uptrend line. As long as we are above that line, it is possible to rally toward the dual yellow downtrend channel line into Mid-Frebruary.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2016/January/XgldWkly5Jan2016.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3741895
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3741895Bill DowneyFri, 18 Dec 2015 19:59:28 GMTGold & the short and longer term view<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<p data-innereditablearea="cell1" data-maincontent="1" data-excesscontent="1"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></font></p>
<p data-innereditablearea="cell1" data-maincontent="1" data-excesscontent="1"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Gold is catching a bid today as the stock markets sell off again today. &nbsp;At one point the NIKKI was down 1000 points as the BOJ disappointed and the Dow as well has had a huge selloff in the last two days. &nbsp; Add the fact that the Chinese Yuan has been down for the last 10 days against the dollar. &nbsp; Add the High Yield bond market collapse and you have most likely what is moving gold higher today.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Gold Short term</strong></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">We have discussed that in order for gold to confirm higher prices on the short term, was to see a close above 1085. &nbsp;That has yet to happen. &nbsp;Also, &nbsp;we said that gold must close above the blue moving average and as you can see below, &nbsp;we have yet to do that as well. &nbsp; We have said how important the 1072-1082 area is on a number of occasions this year and as you can see, this bounce from the end of November has not been able to make that an area of support as of this update. &nbsp;Indeed, today's high was 1072. &nbsp;As long as we remain below 1085 on a closing basis, &nbsp;the short term trend remains down. &nbsp;Resistance is 1072-1085. &nbsp;Support is the 1033-1044 area and then the 1023 zone and 1006. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/Gol8Hr28Dec2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></font></p>
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<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The next short term cycle turn is due Dec 25th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp; If we can get another low into next week, it should set us up for a January-February bounce.</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolCyc17Dec2015.gif" border="0"><br></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Long term Gold</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">On a long term basis, gold is fast approaching the ideal time and price points. &nbsp;The 21st century uptrend line is the odds favored point for where the low will occur, &nbsp;but we can't eliminate the 975-1040 area. &nbsp; The time range for the low is Oct 2015-June 2016. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">But more specifically, there are two spots we are looking for a gold low and that is either Dec 2015 or March 2016. &nbsp;March 2016 is the ideal spot as gold will have completed a Fibonacci 55 month bear market. &nbsp;The ideal price would be in the 850 area but like we said, &nbsp;we can't eliminate the 975-1040 area. Suffice to say that the bear market is approaching its end in gold.</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolMon17Dec2015LongTermUptrendLine.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Commodities</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">As you can see commodities have retraced all the gains made from the 2008 crash. &nbsp;If this was gold, price would be at 680. &nbsp;So even though gold has looked weak, it is actually a lot stronger than it looks. &nbsp; The inverse of that of course is that gold could have one final leg down from this 1050 area that would most likely remove the last of the perma bulls in gold. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><br></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/CommoditesAtCrashLowDec2015.gif" border="0"><br></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Gold Weekly Price Chart</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">On our weekly chart, &nbsp;the three red lines below price is the ideal range from where the low should occur. &nbsp;We have reached the first line and here again, we know we are getting closer and closer to the ideal bottom. &nbsp;On the other side, gold must have two monthly closes above the dual yellow trend lines just above price in order to turn the trend from Bearish to Neutral and potentially bullish. &nbsp;To really be bullish, &nbsp;the blue moving average is also going to have to exceed the red moving average (along with price) and obtain two monthly closes with the blue average higher. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/XgldWkly16Dec2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">SIlver is also at a major crossroad in long term support. &nbsp;A monthly close below 13 dollars would allow for further price drop, &nbsp;but at this point in time, &nbsp;the physical accumulation of silver should be higher considered at each dollar drop from here. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/SilMonLongTerm200MonthAveAndTrendLineDec2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><strong>Interest Rates</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">The real bubble is the bond markets of the world. &nbsp;The 34 year move from 1947 to 1981 was for the most part growth oriented until the 60's. One can argue the move from 1975 to 1981 was one of panic and that's where gold had its move from 100 to 850. &nbsp;We now have completed 34 years lower in rates and stand pretty much at HISTORIC LOWS. &nbsp; Odds are high that the TREND is about to change. &nbsp;This time odds favor its going to be panic that drives rates higher and if you think about it, &nbsp;it looks like the FED is doing just that now. &nbsp;Once the sell off begins in bonds, odds are high that a major liquidity squeeze will take place. &nbsp;Its already happening now and that is WHY the US Dollar has undergone such a rally as it has. &nbsp;Its the most liquid and deepest market on earth. &nbsp;At some point in time, odds are high that gold is going to join the upside as well. &nbsp;Gold for the most part rose thru all the higher rates into 1980. &nbsp;With this low in rates now, &nbsp;odds are high that gold will rise IF THE INTEREST RATE PANIC kicks in. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/InterestRate1947To2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Summary</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">Odds favor that the final low in gold is not yet in. &nbsp;Its not out of the question because we have reached the upper end of the price range and time range. &nbsp;However the odds are still with gold being in its last leg down. &nbsp;The best thing right now would be for gold to move lower to 850 into March 2016. &nbsp;That would put high odds on the bear market in gold ending.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Arial, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 14px;">On a shorter term basis, &nbsp;odds are high that a gold bounce should begin just before or after Christmas and lead to higher prices in January. &nbsp;And then we'll see.</font></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3709231
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3709231Bill DowneyMon, 14 Dec 2015 17:43:30 GMTGold weak as FOMC approaches<h1>Key Events In The Coming "Fed's First Hike In 9 Years" Week</h1>
<p><br></p>Submitted by <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden">Tyler Durden</a> on 12/14/2015 09:22<br>
<p><br></p>
<p>While this may well be the most important week for capital markets in the past 9 years, when the Fed is widely expected to hike rates on Wednesday, precisely 7 years to the day since it cut rates to zero, the week sets off with a quiet start today with just the Euro area industrial production reading due out this morning and nothing expected out of the US this afternoon.</p>
<p>The focus on Tuesday morning will be in the UK where we get the November CPI/RPI/PPI docket. Euro area employment data and the German ZEW survey are also expected. Over in the US tomorrow afternoon, the November CPI print is the main focus (headline expected at 0.0% mom, core +0.2% mom), while average weekly earnings, empire manufacturing and the NAHB housing market index are also due.</p>
<p>Wednesday is PMI day where we’ll get the December flash manufacturing, services and composite numbers for the Euro area, Germany and France. UK employment data is also due, along with the final reading for Euro area CPI. Over in the US on Wednesday the November housing starts and building permits data is due, along with industrial and manufacturing production, flash manufacturing PMI and also capacity utilization. The main focus will be the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting and Yellen press conference.</p>
<p>Here is DB's quick summary of Wednesday' main event:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This time last year we were convinced that the Fed wouldn't raise rates in 2015. We'll it looks like we'll be proved 15 days wrong. However with all that's going on in the world and with global nominal growth so low, it's hard for us to imagine they'll get very far in their hiking cycle. We suspect that the terminal funds rate will be lower than the market expects and certainly lower than the Fed expect. Assuming they do hike and that the US HY story doesn't escalate quickly and stop them in their tracks the main story will be how dovish they make the hike<strong>. It's hard to think they'll be hawkish given the current global uncertainty and the carnage in the $1.3tr US HY market.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>And here is BofA:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Like the markets, we expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25bp in December. <strong>We doubt the Fed will be able to satisfy expectations for a "dovish hike,"</strong> however: the market has priced in just over two rate hikes next year and a much lower terminal rate. The FOMC is likely to stress a gradual pace of rate hikes and there may be dovish dissent. Yet we do not expect a significant decline in the dot plot or explicit forward guidance; the Fed will remain data dependent. Markets may selloff modestly on the announcement, but it should not trigger a sharp tightening of financial conditions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Unless, of course, as even Hilsenrath hinted, the Fed is merely hiking just so it has the green light to ease shortly thereafter, either back to ZIRP or to NIRP alongside even more QE.</p>
<p>Early Thursday morning starts in Japan with the November trade numbers. That’s before we get the German IFO survey data and UK retail sales. In the US initial jobless claims, conference board’s leading index and the Philly Fed business outlook are all due. Closing out the week on Friday in Asia will be the latest China property price data and MNI business indicator reading along with the BoJ monetary policy decision.</p>
<p>There’s nothing of note in the European session on Friday while in the US we’ll get the flash services and composite PMI’s, along with the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. Fedspeak wise we’re due to hear from Lacker on Friday evening.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/12/weekly%20events.jpg"><img width="600" height="349" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/12/weekly%20events_0.jpg"></a></p>
<p><em>Source: DB and BofA</em></p>
<p><em><br></em></p>
<p><em><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></em></p>
<p><em><br></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Short Term Gold</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>The bottom line on short term gold is that we must close above 1085-1088 in order to see higher prices. &nbsp; Resistance on the chart is at the blue moving average at 1076. &nbsp;As you can see gold has NOT BEEN ABLE to overcome this key resistance. &nbsp;There's also additional resistance just above the average at the midway trend line. &nbsp;In summary, if we don't close above 1085-1088, then the downside potential for gold to year end remains a possibility. &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/Gol8Hr14Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong><br></strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>The other factor that is a concern is the gold cycles. &nbsp; While inversions do happen 30% of the time, &nbsp;that leaves the odds of this one going lower by 70% on the red cycle. &nbsp;Part of the issue is that gold is now in the long term window (Oct 2015 - June 2016) to provide the final lows in gold and when that occurs, there will be a lot of&nbsp;</strong></em><strong><em>volatility and as we saw on the week of August 17th (when the stock market big drop occurred) these cycles will have events that will occur and we can't expect the cycles to work at each&nbsp;occasion. &nbsp; The good news is that the cycles do give us a very good indicator on the short term moves as to when peaks and bottoms occur. &nbsp; Since it is a natural cycle, it will not disappear soon. &nbsp; &nbsp;The next cycle is due December 25th (Plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;The bottom line is that odds are beginning to favor lower prices into year end. &nbsp;The FOMC interest rate decision will be this Wednesday. &nbsp; Be prepared.</em></strong></p>
<p><em><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolCyc14Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></strong></em></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3697994
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3697994Bill DowneyTue, 08 Dec 2015 14:31:13 GMTGold at very short term support (1062 - 1066)<br>
<strong><font style="font-size: 18px;"><br>
​Gold does not have to move Lower on Rate Hike</font></strong>
<p>by Peter Arendas&nbsp;</p>
<p>There are a lot of reasons why to expect that if there is any interest rate hike this December, it will be only symbolical and it will probably take quite a lot of time before another hike will occur. There are <a href="http://www.richmond.com/business/local/article_69147fd6-1eaa-5e3f-aa57-2a246e1a522e.html"><font color="#0066CC">various</font></a> <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/29/us-fiscal-policy-exports-weigh-against-december-fed-hike.html"><font color="#0066CC">economists</font></a> who have the same opinion and they don't see any good reason to increase the interest rate right now. One of them is Peter Schiff who <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/17/fed-rate-hike-or-not-im-bullish-on-gold-commentary.html"><font color="#0066CC">expects</font></a> that the Fed will leave the interest rate unchanged or it will raise it by 0.25%. He assumes that both of the outcomes will be positive for gold, as the markets have already factored in substantially more than a 0.25% interest rate growth.</p>
<h2>How did GLD share price react in the past?</h2>
<p>Although theory says that GLD price should decline after an interest rate hike and it should grow after an interest rate cut, history shows that this anticipation is often wrong. The financial markets always try to predict the future development, and the interest rate change is often reflected by the asset prices before the rate change itself is officially announced. And if there was a strong trend before the rate change, the trend may get disrupted for some time, although it tends to resume after the dust settles down.</p>
<p>22 interest changes occurred since the inception of GLD. In 12 cases, the interest rate was increased and in 10 cases it was decreased. The table below shows the development of GLD share price 20, 10 and 5 trading days before the rate change and 5, 10 and 20 days after the rate change.</p>
<p>It is interesting that on average, GLD price grew before the interest rate change and it was in a slight decline 5 and 10 trading days after the rate change. But 20 trading days after the rate change, it was back in green numbers.</p>
<p>Only in 4 out of 12 cases (33.33%), the GLD price recorded any losses 20 trading days after the interest rate hike. It declined by 4.73% on average. On the other hand, in 66.66% of cases, the GLD price recorded gains (5.08% on average). In 4 cases (33.33%), the GLD price just kept on growing, without any reaction on the interest rate hike.</p>
<p>After the Fed started to cut the interest rates, GLD was down in 50% of the cases after 20 trading days. After the interest rate cuts on March 18, 2008, October 8, 2008 and December 16, 2008, a strong growth trend turned into a steep decline. It shows that GLD often reacts contrary to the theory not only after interest rate hikes but also after interest rate cuts.</p>
<p><em>(click to enlarge)</em><a href="https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/11/29/13760932-14488160750295887-Peter-Arendas_origin.png"><img src="https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/LbKpXkyOWWCIahaLk8J-uqB0Duji_NHqlkFk6JKCJYW-J9P-l42MX26fcL6XsSbBVxlVlGQnBaHwODdlxLbiMCRu4nLBMKQzo4H8Ba12vqcPdgqjDyTdpqvxYGldTJZaOaEYSETFAi2xMWVmQooOgMWM6-SEqbdjBLytw4uQW34U=s0-d-e1-ft#https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/11/29/13760932-14488160750295887-Peter-Arendas.png"></a></p>
<p><em>Source: own processing, using data of Yahoo Finance and the Fed</em></p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>If the Fed hikes the interest rate during its meeting on December 15/16, it doesn't mean that gold and GLD prices must crash. The official macroeconomic data don't indicate that the U.S. economy should start to overheat anytime soon; moreover, a too strong USD may hurt not only the U.S. economy. Any rate hike will be only symbolical and it will probably take a long time before another one will occur. The markets may actually welcome that the more than a year long saga is finally over, and the GLD price may react positively. As the not-so-distant history shows, it wouldn't be the first time when GLD price grows after an interest rate hike. Adding to it the problems the gold miners have to face at the current gold prices and the high demand for physical gold, GLD presents an interesting contrarian opportunity.</p>
<p>(End of Article)</p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term (by Goldtrends)</strong></p>
<p>Gold has pulled back to the 50% retracement from the pop from last week. &nbsp;Odds favor support will come in near 1062-1066 and will attempt to support. &nbsp;That's the level we need to hold. &nbsp;There is one final support (again short term) at 1055 but it would be better for gold to hold at 1062-1066. &nbsp;Resistance remains 1085-1095 and then 1102. &nbsp; In summary, &nbsp;odds favor support at 1062-1066 at the moment.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolHrly8Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3687608
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3687608Bill DowneyFri, 04 Dec 2015 13:22:30 GMTGold and whats going on Friday Dec 4th 2015<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Bloomberg Markets</p>
<p>Investors look to nonfarm payrolls, the fallout from Mario Draghi's stimulus plan continues, and OPEC meets to discuss the oil supply glut. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.</p>
<p>JOBS DAY</p>
<p>November nonfarm payrolls data is due today -- the most-anticipated piece of U.S. data to land ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 16 decision on interest rates. It would take a big surprise to derail the Fed at this point. With investor odds of liftoff when the Fed meets later this month at 74 percent, today's jobs data will probably offer more information about the pace of tightening in the months ahead than on the timing of the first hike. Economists are expecting an increase of 200,000 new jobs in the month and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.0 percent. There will also be a lot of attention paid to the Average Hourly Earnings number, which jumped 2.5 percent in October.</p>
<p>OPEC meets in Vienna</p>
<p>Oil spiked today from near six-year lows, as OPEC ministers gather behind closed doors in Vienna today to discuss output policy. Venezuela -- leading calls for a cut in production -- pressed the point that even Saudi Arabia is troubled about low prices, but Iran signaled it doesn’t expect OPEC to do anything to its production ceiling. Iran says it is only willing to discuss output cuts when its production reaches 4 million barrels a day, while Saudi Arabia reiterated its position that other big producers outside the group, like Russia, will have to join output curbs. Oil has slumped since Saudi Arabia led OPEC’s decision last year to maintain production and defend market share against higher-cost rivals.</p>
<p>Market fallout from ECB shock</p>
<p>The euro pared its biggest jump since 2009, recovering after the European Central Bank's underwhelming stimulus package was unveiled yesterday. Mario Draghi's plan, which involved a rate cut and an extension in asset purchases, stung those who had piled on wagers against the euro amid expectations of more aggressive easing. Said one market strategist: "A lesson in over-positioning was delivered overnight." Other markets are still absorbing his message: German government bonds headed for their worst weekly loss in almost six months, Europe stocks fell even lower and Asian stocks tumbled. The disconnect between investor expectations and the reality delivered by Mario Draghi even caught the eye of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who commented to Congress that “the market expected some actions that were not forthcoming.”</p>
<p>(end of article)</p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Gold still remains in downtrend channels on the short term. Today’s resistance points are 1063-1067 and 1072-1077 and finally 1085-1094. We need a close today above 1075 in order to turn things more bullish short term. As far as support let’s look at the medium term chart.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolHrly4Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>On the medium term chart there’s lots of support lines underneath the market. Most important for the moment is 1034-1044 and then the 1023 area. There’s also support in the 950-1000 area. Here too we are still in a downtrend at the moment. The key on the medium term is for gold to re-establish itself above the 1172-1222 area and then a monthly close above 1255. That would take the medium term out of bearish mode and at least into Neutral.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/XgldWkly2Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p><strong><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">Gold Short term Cycles</font></strong></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">At the moment it looks like this rotation below (bearish) is the one that is playing out. In this rotation the low becomes due Dec 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). Targets are 1034-1044, 1020-1023 and then 985-1000.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">As long as we are below 1072-1075 on a closing basis, continue to favor lower into next week.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, sans-serif">The bottom line here is that an important low is due somewhere in the first two weeks of December and from there gold should rally into year end. &nbsp; That's how it looks at the moment. &nbsp; Gold reached 1046 on Thursday in Asia before bouncing back after the ECB announcement. &nbsp; That's really close to the 1034-1044 level we've been watching. &nbsp;It comes down to the JOBS NUMBER this morning and then we'll see.</font></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolCyc2Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3674737
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3674737Bill DowneyThu, 03 Dec 2015 03:42:17 GMTQuick gold Update on short term technical and cycles<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Our last updates stated that as long as we remain below 1085 the potential to move lower could continue. Since then we hit 1075 and have turned back down to new lows (1046). We listed overall support at 1023-1044 and thus we have reached within 2 dollars of 1044. Look for 1034-1044 as support initially on Thursday and then 1020-1023.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/Gol8Hr2Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term Cycles</strong></p>
<p>At the moment it looks like this rotation below (bearish) is the one that is playing out. In this rotation the low becomes due Dec 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). Targets are 1034-1044, 1020-1023 and then 985-1000.</p>
<p>As long as we are below 1072-1075 on a closing basis, the trend remains down. &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/December/GolCyc2Dec2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3671912
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3671912Bill DowneyMon, 30 Nov 2015 20:05:17 GMTGold technical and Chart Update<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>As far as the short term gold chart, there should be strong support near 1023-1044. Today is the last day of the month and also First Notice day for December Futures. Traders have moved to the Feb contract. We need a close above 1085 to neutralize the situation and then a close above 1095 in order to favor higher prices towards either 1102-1112 and or 1122-1127. As long as we remain below 1085 the potential to move lower can continue. &nbsp;However, we should be on an alert here for a bounce. &nbsp;Lets go to the next chart....</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolHrly30Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Intermediate term</strong></p>
<p>The question is whether gold made its low last Friday at the dotted line or whether gold is going to move lower to the red lines? &nbsp; A close above 1095 and then above 1105 would strengthen the case that an intermediate term low has been established.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/Gol8Hr30Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term Cycles</strong></p>
<p>We have two charts to present.</p>
<p>This rotation on the cycles chart does allow for a low to be made here and launch a rally from this point. That doesn't mean that IT WILL happen that way, but a close back above 1085 and then 1094 would indeed favor that. The one thing that this chart does emit is a BLUE cycle low, which is what BULL markets produce when they are rallying. We should bear in mind the big COT changes that have occurred in the past month as it is IMPLYING that a gold RALLY is coming. It could take a couple more weeks to develop, but we should be aware it can begin at any time. A close above 1085 will be the first thing to watch for and then a close above 1095 would be the 2nd. If we close above 1095, odds favor we are moving higher into and around the Dec 11th time frame.</p>
<p>First things first, we need a close above 1072-1075 and then 1085.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolCyc30Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Cycles Alternate Chart</strong></p>
<p>The alternate view is that there has been no inversion and the downside of gold is about to accelerate lower into Dec 7th – 11th time frame. ANY CLOSE BELOW 1150 favors this scenario. Otherwise, its possible to move higher as in the first chart.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolCyc30Nov2015Inv.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3667936
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3667936Bill DowneyWed, 25 Nov 2015 15:00:13 GMTA gold rally should not be far away<p>&nbsp;A Gold Rally is not far Away</p>
<p>Nov. 25, 2015 by: Boris Mikanikrezai</p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>Money managers are now net short gold, reflecting an extremely bearish sentiment.</p>
<p>ETF investors continued to sell the precious metal for a third straight week, albeit at a slower pace.</p>
<p>Although the macro environment is negative for gold, sentiment is so weak that a reversal is likely.</p>
<p>Net speculative positions on the COMEX as well as ETF holdings in so far as the historical economic behavior of gold prices suggests that over a short-term horizon (&lt;3 months), gold prices are largely influenced by changes in the forward fundamentals, reflected in changes in net spec length and ETF holdings.</p>
<p>Speculative positioning</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/Cot25Nov2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Source: CFTC.</p>
<p>Gold. According to the latest Commitment of Traders provided by the CFTC, money managers, viewed as a relevant proxy for speculators, became net short gold in the week ending November 17, while spot gold prices fell by almost 2 percent over the period covered by the data.</p>
<p>The net speculative length fell from a net long position of 16,869 contracts as of November 10 to a net short position of 13,923 contracts as of November 17. In other words, the net spec length dropped 30,792 contracts from last week, the fourth consecutive weekly decrease. Taking a closer look, the fall in the net spec length was largely driven by a build-up of shorts (+29,422 contracts, the largest weekly increase since August 11) and was reinforced by a tepid liquidation of longs (-1,370 contracts, the fourth weekly decline in a row).</p>
<p>The net spec length is now in a negative territory for the first time since August 11 and is at its lowest level since July 28. It is important to note, in our view that the net spec length is at a very low level by historical standards. Indeed, except during the summer of 2015 when money managers were net short gold for about three weeks, money managers have always been net long gold since the CFTC started to publish its statistics back in 2006.</p>
<p>With the net spec length down 116 percent on the year and below its 2015 average (49,430 contracts) and long-term average (109,492 contracts), we argue that the spec positioning in the gold market has become overstretched to the short-side, and as such, a bout of short-covering could emerge in the very short-term.</p>
<p>Last week I mentioned that money managers reached an extremely bearish positioning so the sell-off in gold prices could run out of steam. Although gold prices continued to reach new 2015 lows last week, we note that the market has been struggling to push sustainably lower, suggesting a waning conviction in the short side. This confirms that gold prices are close to enter a bottoming-out process.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, I will closely monitor the current week's market action and if gold prices should manage to remain above their last week's low, this would suggest, in my view, that gold prices have already bottomed out, and I would jump in the long side accordingly although the stop loss would need to be carefully chosen due to a possible spike in volatility when prices are near a trough (or a peak).</p>
<p>Investment positioning</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GldCOT25Nov2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;Source: FastMarkets.</p>
<p>Gold. ETF investors sold gold for third week in a row as of November 20, albeit at a slower pace than the prior two weeks.</p>
<p>Gold ETF holdings fell about 5 tonnes between November 13 and November 20, which we attribute to some selling from short-term investors ahead of the December FOMC meeting where the Fed is set to raise the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade. Indeed, although US macro data were not particularly encouraging such as industrial production for October (down 0.2 percent from September) or housing starts (at 1.06 million in October, down from 1.19 million in September), the release of the October FOMC minutes on November 18 proved to me more hawkish than market participants had previously envisaged. According to the minutes, most FOMC market participants anticipated that the conditions for starting the policy normalisation process could be met 'by the time of the next meeting". Against this backdrop, market participants revised upwards their expectations for the timing of the liftoff. The 30-day fed-funds futures are currently pricing in a 74-percent probability for a December liftoff, compared with 70 percent before the release of the minutes. ETF investors sold gold accordingly the following day, about 3.38 tonnes or 68 percent of the weekly amount sold.</p>
<p>However, we believe it is worth mentioning that the pace of the decline in gold ETF holdings has slowed, which suggests that those holdings are increasingly held by stronger hands. In spite a downward trend in ETF holdings since late 2012, the pace of outflows has gradually declined.</p>
<p>Amounting to 1,518 tonnes as of November 20, total gold ETF holdings (tracked by FastMarkets) were down 5 tonnes from last week and 33 tonnes from the start of November. They are therefore on track to record the first monthly outflow in 4 months as investors were net buyers of 12 tonnes of gold in October, 2 tonnes in September and 10 tonnes in August. ETF investors are currently net sellers of 77 tonnes of gold on the year, due to strong outflows between March and July.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, we believe that the current commodity-unfriendly macro environment could push gold ETF holdings below their year-to-date low of 1,517 tonnes seen early in August. However, we do not expect the pace of ETF selling to accelerate nor these holdings to fall sharply below the 1,500-tonne level in so far as those physical holdings are held by "strong hands" investors with a long-term philosophy.</p>
<p>From a technical perspective, it is clear to me that the market is deeply oversold in the near-term and as such, a rally is necessary to alleviate deeply oversold conditions. Further, GLD is sitting near a solid support, the 98-100 level, which could thereby induce some short-covering from this price level.</p>
<p>From a fundamental perspective, sentiment is currently so weak that a reversal in gold prices appear to me very likely at this crucial juncture.</p>
<p>(end of Article)</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></p>
<p>From a short term perspective, we have the Thanksgiving Holiday in USA upon us and markets this is a time when we can see very little change in price for the remainder of the week. &nbsp;But it is also a point where the control boyz can move the market (because of low volume participation) in a sharp manner in either direction if they so choose. &nbsp; In the past we have seen it all. &nbsp;We have seen 50 dollar rallies on the Friday after Thanksgiving, &nbsp;we have seen big sell-offs and we have seen this holiday produce almost no price movement. &nbsp; Thus it is impossible to gauge exactly what will transpire this time. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>While the above article strongly argues a rally is fast coming, there is nothing to say that it can't take another week or two to fully develop. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The other factor that is key to remember is the FOMC meeting coming up in December. &nbsp; The FED is quickly running out of reliability as they have cancelled a raise in rates over and over. &nbsp; With the global economic situation imploding, they are in quite the pickle at the moment. &nbsp; In fact they even called an emergency meeting for last Monday. &nbsp; Here is what was listed on the Fed Website in regards to that meeting; &nbsp;My thanks to Greg L. for the notification.</p>
<p><strong>Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures</strong></p>
<p>It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 AM on Monday, November 23, 2015, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Meeting Date: Monday, November 23, 2015</p>
<p>Matter(s) Considered</p>
<p>1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.</p>
<p>A final announcement of matters considered under expedited procedures will be available in the Board's Freedom of Information and Public Affairs Offices and on the Board's Web site following the closed meeting.</p>
<p>(end of statement)</p>
<p>Since that meeting, there has been no further announcements. &nbsp;Thus we are not sure if they have decided not to raise rates or whether they push forward.</p>
<p>As far as the short term gold chart, &nbsp;prices have continued to vacillate in a very tight range over the past week between 1067 and 1084. &nbsp;We need a close above 1085 to neutralize the situation and then a close above 1095 -1102 in order to favor higher prices towards either 1112-1115 and or 1122-1127. &nbsp;As long as we remain below 1085 the potential to move lower can continue.&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolHrly25Nov2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The short term gold cycles are also reflecting the uncertainty in the market. &nbsp;Today, we have two charts to present.</p>
<p>The first chart is suggesting that gold remains very weak and that a final selloff into and around Dec 7th is going to take place. &nbsp; If this scenario develops, we would look for the low of the year to be established then and a reaction rally to take place going into the Jan-Feb time frame. &nbsp; While this looks to be the preferred chart rotation of the short term cycles, &nbsp;let's look at one more chart.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolCyc25Nov2015STD.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>This alternate chart does allow for a low to be made here and launch a rally from this point. &nbsp;One of the reasons we are less inclined to believe this chart is correct is that Martin Armstrong has a potential bear market low reading during the week of December 7th. &nbsp; That doesn't mean that IT WILL happen that way, but it does make us hesitate here to say the chart below has a better chance to be correct. &nbsp;The one thing that this chart does emit is a BLUE cycle low, &nbsp;which is what BULL markets produce when they are rallying. &nbsp; In summary, the cycles are reflecting what the current market conditions are, and that is uncertainty. &nbsp; With that said, &nbsp;we should bear in mind the big COT changes that have occurred in the past month as it is IMPLYING that a gold RALLY is coming. &nbsp; It could take a couple more weeks to develop, but we should be aware it can begin at any time. &nbsp; A close above 1085 will be the first thing to watch for and then a close above 1095 would be the 2nd. &nbsp;If we close above 1095, odds favor we are moving higher into and around the Dec 7th time frame. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolCyc25Nov2015INV.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>In conclusion, there is no confirmation yet that gold can't go lower, but there are many signs that the bear market is in its final chapter from the 2011 high. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3659959
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3659959Bill DowneyThu, 19 Nov 2015 18:25:14 GMTGold Short Term Cycles<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Cycles Short term</strong><br>
Our last update discussed that the short term cycle window was closed but the weakness in gold was still suspect. Since then new lows have been made and the Thanksgiving Holiday and next cycle turn of Nov 25th is right in line with the holiday week.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
A move higher to next week will suggest that gold will move lower after that into the week of Dec 7th where an IMPORTANT LARGER CYCLE exists that could …..and I say “could’ provide the gold low.&nbsp; The other longer term cycle would be March 2016 (and still the preferred cycle turn).<br>
<br>
We have closed daily below the 1072 key reversal point this week but THE FRIDAY CLOSE WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT.&nbsp; A close below 1072 will favor a low to be put in place next week. Then a short term bounce back towards 1105-1125 should be in order.&nbsp; However, IF WE CLOSE ABOVE 1088 today, then it’s possible we can still head for a high next week near 1095-1112.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
Odds favor a bounce back to develop from here but we must first close above 1085 and then 1095 in order to get more confirmation that the cycle turn is in play. The potential for lower prices in December towards 1030-1050 will be in play on a Friday close below 1072.<br></p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolCyc19Nov2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>Gold Short term</strong><br>
Gold remains weak and needs a close above 1094-1095 to relieve short term pressure. It is trying to hold the 1072-1080 area on the weekly close. We closed below 1072 on Wednesday, but it is possible (like we said on Twitter last night) that gold was making the lows for the week.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
Odds favor a test of 1088-1095 is taking place and then we will see if gold wants to move higher.&nbsp; Support will be 1072-1076 going into Friday Morning.&nbsp; A close below 1072 keeps things bearish on Friday.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><img title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolHrly19Nov2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3649567
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3649567Bill DowneyWed, 18 Nov 2015 18:01:31 GMTGold Daily Update<p><strong><font style="font-size: 32px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Latest COT and short term gold cycle and resistance points</font></strong></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Nov. 18, 2015 by: Boris Mikanikrezai</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Money managers are now very bearish toward gold.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">ETF investors sold the precious metal for a second straight week, albeit at a slower pace.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Every week, I closely monitor net speculative positions on the COMEX as well as ETF holdings in so far as the historical economic behavior of gold prices suggests that over a short-term horizon (&lt;3 months), gold prices are largely influenced by changes in the forward fundamentals, reflected in changes in net spec length and ETF holdings.</font></p>
<p><strong><u><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Speculative positioning</font></u></strong></p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/Cot18Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Source: CFTC.</font></p>
<p><strong><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Gold</font></strong><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">. According to the latest Commitment of Traders provided by the CFTC, money managers, viewed as a relevant proxy for speculators, lowered massively their net long position for the third week in a row as of November 10, while spot gold prices fell by almost 3 percent over the period covered by the data.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">The net spec length dropped 50,338 contracts (or 75 percent) to 16,869 from 67,207 between November 3 and November 10, driven by a combination of a <em>build-up of shorts</em> (+25,516 contracts, the second consecutive weekly increase and the biggest one since November 2013) and <em>long liquidation</em> (-24,822 contracts, the third straight weekly decrease).</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">The net spec length is now down 81 percent year-to-date after being up 33 percent year-to-date as of October 20. This therefore reflects a sharp negative swing in sentiment against gold. The net spec length is below its 2015 average of 51,625 contracts and its long-term average (2006-2015) of 109,742 contracts. That said, it remains above the 2015 low when money managers were net short of 14,633 contracts.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">We believe that the outstanding US employment report for October, released November 6, was the trigger of the drastic deterioration in the spec positioning. As a reminder, non-farm payrolls rose 271,000, versus 184,000 expected, and up from 137,000 in September. While the October 27-28 FOMC meeting was the starting point of the negative change in sentiment towards gold as the Fed showed its increasing confidence about a liftoff in December, the release of the jobs report was a further sign that the Fed might be inclined to proceed to a rate hike next month. This was incidentally reflected in changes in the 30-day fed-funds futures, which are presently pricing in a 70-percent probability for a Fed increase at the December FOMC meeting, versus 30 percent before the October FOMC meeting.</font></p>
<p><strong><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Gold.</font></strong> <font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">ETF investors sold gold for a second straight week ending November 13, albeit at a slower pace than last week. While I was confused last week by the strong pace of gold ETF selling, I conjectured that some investors preferred to reverse some tactical positions ahead of the US employment report due to its strong source of volatility. I am also willing to admit that renew selling in gold ETF holdings over the past two weeks is due to a weak sentiment in the gold market, reflected in lower prices, which therefore lead some investors to retrench.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">Amounting to 1,523 tonnes as of November 13, total gold ETF holdings (tracked by FastMarkets) were down 6 tonnes from last week and 23 tonnes from the start of November. They are therefore on track to record the first monthly outflow in 4 months as investors were net buyers of 12 tonnes of gold in October, 2 tonnes in September and 10 tonnes in August. ETF investors are currently net sellers of 77 tonnes of gold on the year, due to strong outflows between March and July.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">From a technical picture, the market is deeply oversold in the near term, as evidenced by the RSI (21) gyrating around the 14 level.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">From a fundamental perspective, I believe that money managers have sold gold too aggressively and too quickly so they are likely to lack some "dry powder" to drive spot prices much lower. That said, current sentiment appears to me weak in the sense that despite the resurgence of potential bullish factors such as geopolitical tensions, the gold market has not benefited from safe-haven bids.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">As a result, I prefer to await a bit further before taking a constructive stance on gold. As seen in the chart above, I would not be surprised to see GLD fall toward the $100 level, but it would suggest at the same time that money managers have become even more bearish, which would raise the likelihood of a strong short-covering rally.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">&nbsp;(end of COT report)</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif"><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">The next gold cycle is due Nov 25<sup>th</sup> (plus or minus 72 hours) so next week looks like the perfect time for a low to establish and for a Thanksgiving Rally attempt.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;It would be more bullish to get back to blue cycle lows and a low next week would give us just that. &nbsp;As long as we are below that downtrend line under 1100, the overall intermediate term trend remains down. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolCyc18Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><strong>Gold Very Short Term</strong></p>
<p>Gold has tried to move back above 1072-1075 three times since the 1064 low.&nbsp; So far it has not been successful.&nbsp; Today price is just limp between 1065-1072.&nbsp; We need a close above 1085 to neutralize the downtrend.&nbsp; On the downside,&nbsp; weekly support is 1035-1050 and if we close below 1064, we should expect such to occur.&nbsp;&nbsp; Any time we are below 1072-1075 favor the bears to have control.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolHrly18Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>In summary, odds favor gold still has downside potential but a strong reversal is coming on a short term move.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3641729
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3641729Bill DowneyTue, 17 Nov 2015 02:24:15 GMTGold short term cycles and support and resistance area's<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Cycles Short term</strong></p>
<p>The short term cycle window is closed but the weakness in gold is still suspect. The failure to close above 1094 still has gold on the ropes. The next short term cycle is due November 25th, plus or minus 72 hours.</p>
<p>We have retested the 1072 bear market low and a short term bounce back towards 1105-1125 should be in order. Odds favor a bounce back to develop from here but we must first close above 1088 and then 1094 in order to get more confirmation that the cycle turn is in play. The potential for lower prices in December towards 1030-1050 will be in play on any close below 1072.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolHrly16Nov2015A.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Gold remains weak and needs a close above 1094-1095 to relieve short term pressure. It is trying to hold the 1072-1080 area. The media makes it look like gold is supposed to rally during times of war. But in essence, it only does so during a bull market. The failure to rally during the Paris attacks continues to make more and more gold bugs weary of gold. Overall, the capitulation of the gold bugs is what is needed for gold to make its final low of this bear market we have been experiencing since 2011.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/GolHrly16Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term Gold</strong></p>
<p>On an intermediate term basis, gold needs to get back above some of these resistance lines. The first thing we need to see is a close above that line near 1095. More important is that gold is at the last support level until around 1040. Any close below 1072 would warn of a test somewhere near 1040.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/November/Gol8Hr16Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3637104
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3637104Bill DowneyThu, 12 Nov 2015 16:26:51 GMTShort term gold cycles favor a bounce due to begin in gold<p><strong>Gold Cycles Short term</strong></p>
<p>The short term cycle window is open until this Friday and it looks like gold is making a short term low here today or tomorrow. We have retested the 1072 bear market low and a short term bounce back towards 1105-1125 should be in order. Odds favor a bounce back to develop from here. The potential for lower prices in December towards 1030-1050 or any close below 1072 will come in play.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/GolCyc12Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold short term</strong></p>
<p>It looks like gold is making an attempt to reverse the downtrend here as we have re-tested the July low near 1072. Today’s low at 1073 qualifies as a re-test. From here, odds favor that gold reverses higher into the end of November towards 1105—1112 or 1120-1130. Short term resistance is the blue and red moving averages. We need above 1094 to favor a short term low is in place.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/GolHrly12Nov2015.gif" alt="" title="" border="0"><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3630341
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3630341Bill DowneyWed, 04 Nov 2015 03:52:48 GMTGold very short term chart and support and resistance & here comes the NFP report<p><strong>Gold short term</strong></p>
<p>We got our low near 1131 last week and so far this week, we’ve moved to the final uptrend line where gold must either hold or the 1100 area at the Fib 78&amp; retrace will be next. We’re moving into the ADP report on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday. If gold is going to turn up, it has to happen at one of these two areas. If gold can recapture 1122 it will give it a potential to get to around 1148-1150. If the blue cycle turns here, ok, but even then, it looks like it could just be a bounce. On the other hand, if gold has resumed a bull market (and that’s no where near CONFIRMED by any means) then it should turn here. It’s very possible that the 1122 area will be where gold is come Friday’s NFP report and the results will most likely propel the next move. If I had to pick one, I’d favor a bounce into next week.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/GolHrly4Nov2015.gif" alt="" border="0"></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3614944
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3614944Bill DowneyThu, 29 Oct 2015 14:58:26 GMTGold price fake out on FOMC Fed day<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Gold Report ~ Oct 29 2015</p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bullish</strong>– Need close above 1188 for bullish TREND to continue. Goes to NEUTRAL if Gold ETF GLD closes below 109. &nbsp;Very close to going neutral.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Neutral</strong>- Need a close below 1152 to flip short term bearish.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1164-1172 2nd tier 1180-1188</p>
<p>Support 1147-1151 2nd tier 1136-1141</p>
<p><strong>"Hawkish" FOMC Statement Confirms "Moderate" Domestic Growth, No Longer Focused "Abroad"</strong></p>
<p>With a 4% probability, it is no surprise that The Fed did not raise rates. Since The FOMC "folded" in September blaming global turmoil, stocks, bonds, and precious metals have soared as China (and EM) chaos has calmed while domestic data has declined. This has led to 'lift-off' expectations extending to April 2016, and so the question today is - how will The Fed convince the world it 'will' raise rates when it really can't...</p>
<ul>
<li>*FED REMOVES LINE THAT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS MAY RESTRAIN GROWTH</li>
<li>*FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `HAS BEEN EXPANDING AT A MODERATE PACE'</li>
</ul>
<p>A definite hawkish bias but so we are left data-dependent (fundamentals bad, stocks good), and less economically optimistic, but are supposed to believe that December (34%) is still a live meeting (because of some hockey-stick expectation in data) because The Fed needs to raise to show that it can.</p>
<p>For the past 7 years, Fed policies have been on "emergency" conditions.</p>
<p>The economy moved off that condition years ago, but they've kept these policies in place.</p>
<p>Why? It's due to pressure from Wall Street and the financial industry since the policies have led to stock market gains and easy terms to finance stock buybacks and M&amp;A activity.</p>
<p>The Fed this day changed its language, dropping worries about global economic conditions that may negatively affect the U.S. economy. That is considered "hawkish," meaning now they're free to raise interest rates sooner. But Wall Street wasn't buying it, as stocks rallied post the announcement.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, after all this time, the Fed is still finding it difficult to normalize monetary policies. Bulls love and feast on their indecision.</p>
<p>U.S. stocks rallied sharply after an early bout ("the first move's the wrong move") of selling.</p>
<p>On the other hand, overseas markets, especially emerging markets, still experienced selling, as did currency markets and precious metals due to a rise in the dollar. And as stocks rallied, bond markets witnessed modest selling.</p>
<p>The Fed didn’t have to raise rates because everyone else is lowering them</p>
<p>Last week, the ECB President Mario Draghi said that interest rates would move lower in December, descending further into negative territory. Economic weakness across Europe will likely cause the ECB to continue the policy of quantitative easing far beyond September 2016 in an attempt to stimulate the fledgling economy.</p>
<p>And while USA is lifting the debt ceiling, China is once again cutting interest rates as the global economic landscape is turning down hard with just about everything we look at.</p>
<p>Last Friday, the Chinese central bank cut interest rates for the sixth time in 2015. Dovish central banks around the world are responding aggressively to deflationary data and signals in the global economic landscape. This lowers the chances that the U.S. Fed will raise rates as promised in 2015.</p>
<p><strong>Let’s look at the CYCLES chart first today.</strong></p>
<p>Since the pullback gold’s pattern has been a bull flag. The upper and lower lines define the range. In this type of pattern, odds favor a resumption of the uptrend once price breaks above or below the lines. Additional confirmation occurs when the close is beyond the line boundaries. When gold broke above the red 200 day average and ran above the previous high of the last 6 days with a 15 dollar rally to 1182, it looked like gold was going to run away to the upside as it did on October 2nd. But it was a bear trap. Price reversed and moved down 30 dollars to 1150. It’s still possible that the flag pattern will hold. However, if we break 1147 look for a move down to 1133-1141 next. This current cycle turn window is open until Monday so its not out of the question to move lower. The question really is whether we are making a blue cycle low? Let’s look at the next chart.</p>
<p><img alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/FlagFakeout%20A.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Cycles Continued&nbsp;</p>
<p>Because of the big move up and down yesterday, it is possible that what we really saw was a top in gold. The chart below shows that it is not out of the question for yesterday to have been the peak in the cycle and for it to resume its downtrend for another two weeks. We won’t know for sure until next week which cycle placement is the correct one.</p>
<p><img alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/FlagFakeout.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gold short term</strong></p>
<p>For a while on Wednesday it looked like the 1st target of 1155-1158 had held and we were heading higher. But a 30 dollar intra day reversal squelched that. We are now arriving at the 2nd target of 1146-1152. Thus if gold is really turning back up for two weeks, this is where it should bottom. However we can’t rule out a move to the 1133 area just yet. Resistance now will be the 1168-1172 area and then 1180-1188. Gold will try and hold 1147-1151 on Thursday. If it can’t then the 50 day average at 1141 (NOT SHOWN ON THIS CHART) will become support. On Friday the 1133-1136 area will become support if we can’t hold the 50 day. In summary, we expect 1147-1151 to hold on Thursday and if we keep going lower on Friday then 1133-1141 should be the low for this week.</p>
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<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Gol8Hr28Octw2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bearish – but nearing neutral.</p>
<p>Medium Term Moving averages – 144 – 156</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Moving averages – 131.75 -128.11—Bullish (4 weeks and since about 113 on HUI)</p>
<p>A few updates ago we favored the gold stocks finding resistance at the solid 2008 Crash Low Line and discussed that the most likely course would be a pullback attempt potentially to the moving averages where first support would be encountered and would present potentially a buy point for a trade. The moving averages currently stand at the 128 (red) up to 132 (blue). (scroll under chart for more commentary)</p>
<p>The low on Wednesday was the red moving average and the price did close below the blue. Thus the intermediate bullish trend is close to going out of bull and into Neutral. Neutral is not bearish but it’s a caution. The next support if the moving averages fail is the line from a GAP down in price that was formed on July 20th when the gold stocks accelerated to the downside after it had broken below the 2008 crash line low and the September high near 121.</p>
<p>Prices traded sideways beginning on August 5th. Towards the middle to end of August we discussed that the trend was still down but in order to continue the trend lower we needed a close below 103. On September 11th, gold stocks made a new bear market low some 40 days after gold made its summer low in late July. The closing price that day was 103.10---just 10 cents from where the next reversal point was located on the gold stocks. From Sept 11th to October 1st, gold continued in its sideways chop but never closed below 103. October 2nd was the NFP (non farm payroll day) and gold stocks took off higher with gold. At that time we stated a move above 123 would favor a test of the solid white 2008 crash line near 140 from which a pullback would be favored. On October 14th, 15th and 16th, the HUI tested the 139 area and a pullback has been in play since then. Today’s pop was right back to the crash line and it reversed and closed at the moving averages.</p>
<p>On a short term basis it is difficult to ascertain whether we made a cycle high and are ready to move lower into mid November, or if the gold stocks will make their low this week and propel higher.</p>
<p>On a medium and long term basis nothing has changed yet as the HUI MUST GET ABOVE THE 2008 crash line (both solid and dotted 140-150) and make that support. Then it must conquer the 2015 downtrend line (both dotted and solid yellow) and give TWO MONTHLY CLOSES ABOVE that line in order to take the medium term trend OUT OF BEARISH mode and move it to NEUTRAL.</p>
<p>Why two monthly closes ?</p>
<p>It just so happens that the medium term moving averages (not shown on the above chart) are near the 160 area in the HUI which is basically where that solid yellow downtrend line resides. Two monthly closes above the moving averages takes us out of bearish mode to neutral and once the blue moving average closes above the red average along with price, the medium term trend will turn bullish and odds will favor the low in gold stocks is in place. There has not been 2 consecutive closes above the averages since MARCH of 2012. Both April and May of that year finished lower and that was when the HUI gold stocks gave their first medium term sell signal.</p>
<p>On the medium we have more work to do before the trend moves out of bearish mode to neutral. That doesn’t mean the low is not in……….it means we need more evidence for a longer term signal.</p>
<p><img alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/HUI28Oct2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1279 – 1372</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – (note prices are ATTEMPTING TO OVERCOME THE MOVNG AVERAGES. A close above 1222 at end of the month brings trend from BEARISH to NEUTRAL.</p>
<p>Moving Averages 1162-1177</p>
<p>This commentary on the medium term below has been running since we reached the lows in July-August;</p>
<p>Gold continues supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. Support remains that white line we bounced off on the lows and the three red lines under price. Until we crack below that level it is possible for gold to continue its quest higher at the moment. On a weekly basis, the 1172-1188 area is the resistance zone with 1211-1225 and 1258 as key reversal points. The dual yellow downtrend line is also key. As long as we are below that area, the downtrend on a medium term is still intact for now. On the downside, any weekly close below 1072 suggests the downtrend has resumed. Until then, it’s possible for gold to continue higher.</p>
<p>New Commentary</p>
<p>As you can see by the chart, the most significant event is that this rally peak was up against the dual yellow downtrend line established at the April 2013 crash line and the medium term moving averages (Blue Bull 1162 and Red Bear 1177. The Red bearish average (1177) is still above the Blue bullish average (1162). The TRUE trend reversal comes when we get the BLUE average above the Red. Look how long the Red average has been above the blue. (Note; the Red average IS NOT a 13 week average of WEEKLY PRICE CLOSINGS!!!) When the BLUE average is above the red, its bullish.</p>
<p>We have been calling for a low to develop in gold between Oct 2015 and June 2016. We are now in the window to turn the trend. Now price has to perform in order to complete the bottom. Until we get two monthly closes above the moving averages and that dual yellow downtrend line, we still think there is a chance of one MORE LOW. Finally, keep in mind as we said, gold has retraced 50% of the rally from 1999-2001. That is the same retracement we saw at the 1975 low in gold.</p>
<p><img alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/XgldWkly27Oct2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend (Neutral)</p>
<p>Moving Averages 111.60-110.98</p>
<p>Today’s reversal lower ended 20 cents below the red moving average and it becomes while the gold stock intermediate term trend remained bullish by a hair, GLD went to Neutral by a hair. Because it was an FOMC day, we should view it with a grain of salt. A close below today’s low would definitely have the trend out of bullish to neutral. Support is that horizontal white line near 109. We’ll need a close above today’s high to re-instate the bullish trend.</p>
<p>Normally we would expect the moving averages to hold and provide a bottom but the one thing to be careful of is FOMC weeks can be very unreliable.</p>
<p>If GLD starts moving higher the key resistance will be today’s high and then that uptrend line near 114.50 In summary, today was a FOMC clear the stops on both sides day for gold. Lets see what the last two days of the week bring.</p>
<p><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Gld28Oct2015.gif" border="0"></strong></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend moving averages 16.11-15.76 –Bullish (but only by a hair).</p>
<p>On our last update we discussed intermediate term had turned bullish and the next resistance was that green channel line near 16.40. We have now reached that level twice and now we’re at the moving averages. If we lose the averages, then 14.50 will become the next short term support point. If we break above the white and green 2008 crash line, then we should see 18 as the next target.</p>
<p>This pullback to the moving averages is usually a buy opportunity but the reversal on Wednesday could be signaling lower. Any position taken here for a trade should run a tight stop. The bottom line with GDX is we must get above the 2008 green line and then the green line just under 18.00. If we can do that then 20.50 to 23.00 becomes the target. The two green lines are the resistance for this ETF.</p>
<p><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Gdx28Oct2015.gif" border="0"></strong></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>Gold held our closing support into Wednesday, and the pop up after the FOMC meeting got above the bullish flag on the daily chart but it was a bear trap and price reversed in a 30 dollar selloff that brought price back to the bottom of the flag pattern. The pattern is not invalid yet as it needs to close below the lower flag line. A close below 1146 will favor a test of the 50 day average in a range of 1136-1141. Monthly and lower channel support is 1118-1122.</p>
<p>Today’s scenario really loused up things as its possible we saw the high for the blue cycle and we move lower. However, The cycle turn (Oct 27th – plus or minus 72 hours) could still be moving lower and once again inverting the rotation to a blue cycle low. We’re not going to know for sure until next week. The other thing to keep in mind is that this week is a Martin Armstrong Panic Cycle week. We saw that today with a 15 dollar rally higher and then a 30 dollar move lower. It is still not out of the question to reverse again as the BULL FLAG on the chart below has not yet been broken.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>Same as we have said since September;</p>
<p>The low in gold is approaching and its not out of the question that we saw it at 1072 in July. But the oods are not good enough for us to proclaim it yet. If things work out we can have one final low that takes place between now and June 2016. But the 50% total retracement that took place when we hit 1080 in gold has satisfied the bear market requirement and like we said ----its not out of the question that we’ve seen it. Lets give it a bit more. When gold closes monthly above 1222 and 1258 the odds will greatly increase that the low is in.</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3605962
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3605962Bill DowneyTue, 27 Oct 2015 02:49:57 GMTGold FOMC 2 price targets and weekly/Monthly price supports<p><font color="#222222">The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday morning ends Wednesday afternoon. &nbsp;It will most likely be the most important item of the week for Gold and could set the pace for the next two weeks and even to year end.</font></p>
<p><font color="#222222">There are two targets for an ideal low for this week on the chart (1155-1158 or 1146-1152). &nbsp;Also we have weekly support at 1130-1136 and Monthly support at 1118-1122. &nbsp;As you will read in the cycles section, &nbsp;this week has the potential for a big move in total dollars and thus is it not out of the question to reach those levels. &nbsp;Lets go to a quick cycle update. &nbsp;Scroll down.&nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Gol8Hr27Oct2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222">CYCLES</font></p>
<p><font color="#222222">We are now in the cycle window for a turn that is due (Oct 27th - plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;We are at a Fibonacci 13 weeks from the gold low and for those that follow Martin Armstrong, &nbsp;this week is a PANIC CYCLE week. &nbsp;That means that the odds for a BIG MOVE are much greater than normal. &nbsp;Not every panic cycle week produces a big moves, but they happen often. &nbsp;And not always in the same direction. &nbsp;In other words, it could be a sharp move down into FOMC with a sharp move up to follow. &nbsp; One final note, &nbsp;the window for this cycle turn could extend to as late as November 2nd. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font color="#222222">Also, the sharp 2000 point sell off in the US stock market over the last 4 days of the August drop caused havoc with the short term cycles as a late arrival occurred on the Red cycle that was due August 14th (plus or minus 72 hours) to only occur on August 24th (the day of the stock market sell off low. &nbsp;Then the following blue cycle failed just 4 days into it causing a cycle inversion where the ROTATION changed to a RED CYCLE LOW. &nbsp;The next red cycle low came in early on October 2nd when the NFP (non-farm payroll report) was a disaster and gold jumped from 1106 to 1122 in a few minutes and all the way to 1140 within an hour of the report. &nbsp;Now the FOMC MEETING this week looks like it is causing GOLD to return to a BLUE CYCLE LOW rotation as it inverts again. &nbsp;Those who have been with us for a long time know that it is rare that the cycles get shifted this much as the turns most often occur within the cycle window. &nbsp;The good news is that shifting back to a blue cycle low is what we want because that is the rotation that is associated with bull moves in gold. &nbsp;Once the BULL MARKET IN GOLD returns, &nbsp;we will see prolonged periods where the rotation will remain Blue cycle lows and red cycle highs. &nbsp;</font></p>
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<p><font color="#222222"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/GolCyc27OCt2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font color="#222222">&nbsp; Odds are favoring that gold is going to bottom this week and then move higher to mid-November. &nbsp; While we are not ready to pronounce the Bear market is over, it is important to keep in mind that the ideal time for a change to bullish in gold on the longer cycles has been Oct 2015 - June 2016 and we are now in the window for that change.<br></font></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3601574
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3601574Bill DowneyWed, 14 Oct 2015 14:21:39 GMTGold testing upper resistance points on short and medium term<p><strong>Gold short term</strong></p>
<p>Gold has moved higher to the next resistance level of 1172-1188 but has yet to close above 1172. The Tuesday pullback to 1152 was thwarted convincingly and price has move back to resistance. A close above 1172 and then 1188 would warn of 1211-1222 as the next target.</p>
<p>Support is 1152-1158 and 1136-1142.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Gol8hr14Oct2015.gif" alt="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle turn is due now Oct 12th (plus or minus 72 hours). We discussed that a move above 1154-1158 would lead to a move to the 1172-1188 and we have reached 1180.</p>
<p>We are now at the red cycle and odds favor (75%) that we will see a high today or tomorrow. That still leaves the 25% potential that price can continue to rally until months end. Unfortunately, there are no absolutes in trading, only odds. Look for resistance at the red line (200 day moving average) near 1176 and then the upper trend line near 1188.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/GolCyc14Oct2015.gif" alt="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1295 – 1386</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1163-1180</p>
<p>Gold continues supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. Support remains that white line we bounced off on the lows and the three red lines under price. Until we crack below that level it is possible for gold to continue its quest higher at the moment. On a weekly basis, the 1172-1188 area is the resistance zone with 1211-1225 and 1258 as key reversal points. The dual yellow downtrend line is also key. As long as we are below that area, the downtrend on a medium term is still intact for now. On the downside, any weekly close below 1072 suggests the downtrend has resumed. Until then, it’s possible for gold to continue higher.</p>
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<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Xgld14Oct2015.gif" alt="" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3577311
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3577311Bill DowneyWed, 07 Oct 2015 18:04:35 GMTGold at the 2015 downtrend line in its 4th attempt<div>
<strong><a title="Launch GoldTrends.net" href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" target="_blank"><img width="200" height="31" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" border="0"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">Short term gold</font>
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The rise from 1107 to 1132 in just 10 mins after the Non Farm Payroll has not pulled back at all. &nbsp;I had anticipated that if the report was bullish for gold that 1122 would have been resistance, but it sliced right through it. &nbsp;The pullback that developed Monday only got back to 1130. &nbsp;This is the first display of strength Gold is displaying since August. &nbsp;But as we can see below, It ended at the downtrend lines. &nbsp;Gold has had a knack of just exceeding the lines and then it gets pushed down. It happened on August 24th (which created the middle line) and then got pushed down hard. &nbsp;It happened again at the Sept high (1168) which created the third line and got pushed down to 1106. &nbsp;Now it has happened again as we hit 1154 today. &nbsp;1154-1158 is the last resistance until 1172 so it's a key area to watch. &nbsp;A move to 1172 would be &nbsp;a definite break of the down trend line at would set up 1172-1177 and potentially as high as 1199-1222. &nbsp;&nbsp;
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The question or dilemma is whether the gold pulls back to the next cycle turn and stays inside the triangle of upper and lower trend line or whether it breaks higher into the next cycle turn on Oct 12th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;If it does 1172-1177 will be next.
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I'll be working on a full update tonight for SUBSCRIBERS to the website and will try to find an entry point with the least risk.
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3565461
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3565461Bill DowneyTue, 06 Oct 2015 01:11:58 GMTGold remains mixed with potential to move higher on short term basis<p><strong>NEWSLETTER ~ October 6 2015<font face="Verdana"><br></font></strong><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><strong>Gold Report ~ Oct 6 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong>– Need close above 1172 for bullish TREND.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Neutral</strong>&nbsp;- &nbsp;Need weekly close above 1148 for bullish</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1142-1148 &nbsp;2nd tier 1163-1172</p>
<p>Support 1117-1127 2nd tier 1105-1112</p>
<p>Our last update discussed the all important NFP (non-farm payroll report) and the number was not good for the economy. &nbsp;Gold quickly moved up 30 dollars in the first hour after the report. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>The jobs number came in sharply lower than expected. U.S. employers have not been hiring over the last two months and wages fell in September. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The weak jobs number is now raising new doubts on whether the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of this year</p>
<p>The view of course is that rates are not going to go up as the USA would like. &nbsp;Here’s what Martin Armstrong had to say today.</p>
<p><strong>Market Talk October 5th, 2015</strong></p>
<p>Posted on October 5, 2015 &nbsp;by &nbsp;Martin Armstrong</p>
<p>The market reaction to the US data on Friday has confused many with both stocks and Bonds bouncing into the close. Overnight the Asian equity markets have continued the positive response which has also carried into the European opening but interestingly – only for equities. The reaction in the bond markets is we have seen US 10’s remain just under the psychological 2% but the spread against German Bunds is where the interest is playing-out. The TY/RX spread has tightened this morning by 4bp to +144bp with US 10’s trading unchanged at 1.995% while Bunds are slightly higher at 0.555%.</p>
<p>Talk between dealers after the US employment report is of the possibility of the Fed return to aggressive QE especially as the market re-prices the possibility of the a 2015 hike to around 8%. That talk has been around in Europe for a while so are we now due for the markets to start to re-price this differential. Government bonds at the front-end are already trading with negative yields as we also see in the interbank market but with banks offering either negligible or zero interest rates on saving/checking accounts banks are saying they do not need money.</p>
<p>Within Europe MR. Draghi has already talked of increasing government bond purchases from 25% to 33% of single issue and in the quasi-sovereign market they already own roughly a third in total which has already been priced in.</p>
<p>In peace times the weapon of war is currency and that has already started to play out with the Emerging Markets. Latin America, with the declining Argentinian Peso and Brazilian Real, is suffering significantly and they are looking to now issue even longer and longer term debt. As syndicate desks began to discuss this in the morning, there has been actually an argument to issue 100 and 150 year bond issues.</p>
<p>(end of article)</p>
<p>One of the major problems with raising rates is the dire condition of the global economy and its relation to the debt burden.</p>
<p><strong>IMF Flashes Warning Lights for $18 Trillion in Emerging-Market Corporate Debt&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>By &nbsp;Ian Talley</p>
<p>Emerging markets should brace for a rise in corporate failures as a debt-bloated firms struggle with souring growth and climbing borrowing costs, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday in a new report.</p>
<p>From sugar firms in Brazil to pipe makers in Russia, firms in developing countries bulked up on cheap debt as central banks gassed the easy-money pedal in the wake of the financial crisis.</p>
<p>Then, emerging markets were the drivers of global growth. Developing-country firms quadrupled their borrowing from around $4 trillion in 2004 to well over $18 trillion last year, with China accounting for a major share.</p>
<p>Now, prospects in industrializing economies are weakening fast even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is getting set to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, a move that will raise borrowing costs around the world. The burden of 26% larger average corporate debt ratios and higher interest rates come as commodity prices plummet, a staple export for many emerging-market economies. Compounding problems, many firms borrowed heavily in dollars. As the greenback surges against the value of local currency revenues, it makes repaying those loans increasingly difficult.</p>
<p>That massive debt build-up means it is “vital” for authorities to be increasingly vigilant, especially to threats to systemically important companies and the firms they have links to, including banks and other financial firms, the IMF said.</p>
<p>“Monitoring vulnerable and systemically important firms, as well as banks and other sectors closely linked to them, is crucial,” said Gaston Gelos, head of the fund’s global financial stability division.</p>
<p>Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector “and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending,” the IMF said.</p>
<p>And emerging markets should also be prepared for the eventuality of corporate failures, it warned: “Where needed, insolvency regimes should be reformed to enable rapid resolution of both failed and salvageable firms.”</p>
<p>The issue, presented in a report prepared ahead of the IMF’s annual meetings next week in Lima, Peru, will likely take center stage at the gathering of the world’s finance ministers and central bankers.</p>
<p>The Institute of International Finance on Tuesday estimated global investors have sold roughly $40 billion worth of emerging-market assets in the third quarter of the year, which would make it the worst quarter of net-capital outflows since late 2008. The IIF represents around 500 of the world’s largest banks, hedge funds and other financial firms.</p>
<p>Besides the petroleum sector, where borrowing didn’t anticipate the nosedive in prices, the construction industry is particularly exposed to the changing business climate, the IMF said.</p>
<p>Worried about the building risks, investors have been selling out of many emerging markets, pushing down equity and exchange-rate prices, and pushing up borrowing costs. That market turmoil is exacerbating their economic woes.</p>
<p>In Latin America’s six largest economies, for example, the average growth rate has fallen from 6% in 2010 to around 1% this year. Brazil’s central bank last week said the country’s recession is far worse than expected.</p>
<p>China’s recent market turmoil and faster-than-expected economic slowdown is in large part fed by worries over the massive rise in China’s borrowing and whether the economy is vulnerable to a host of credit-driven bubbles in real estate, construction and other sectors.</p>
<p>Rapid credit growth has been a harbinger of previous emerging market crises. While economists say many countries have learned from the past by building up currency reserves and allowing flexible exchange rates to buffer against downturns, the mounting risks for many emerging markets are fueling worries across the globe.</p>
<p>Further complicating emerging market problems, the changing structure of financial markets leaves many developing economies exposed to major outflows of capital as investors scramble to exit. That can lead to fire sales and a breakdown in markets.</p>
<p>“In extreme conditions, markets can freeze altogether, and affect the financial system more broadly, as seen during the global financial crisis,” Mr. Gelos said.</p>
<p>To help guard against building risks, the IMF said policy makers should introduce stronger financial regulations such as higher cash buffers for exchange-rate exposures and conduct stress tests to weed out problem firms.</p>
<p>(end of Article)</p>
<p>But what about USA? &nbsp;How well is it really doing?</p>
<p>The charts and commentary by Elliot Wave International below should give you a good idea.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/USAeconomy6ChartsOct2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p>Labor Force Participation. The government releases its official unemployment rate each month, and that number today is about 5.1%.</p>
<p>But: They don’t count you as unemployed if you work par-time and want to work full-time. And, they don’t count you unless you've actively looked for work in the past month.</p>
<p>To get a more accurate picture, you need to ask, "What percentage of the working-age population is employed?"</p>
<p>Here’s the answer.</p>
<p>The steep decline began in 2007 and has kept going ever since. The longer term picture here is also more grim. This low is actually the lowest level of participation in 38 years.</p>
<p>Workers’ share of the economy. This tangible comparison shows the long-term decline of worker income. Specifically, wages and salaries as a percentage of GDP. Again, not what a ‘recovery’ should look like.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Food stamps. The dollar amount of food stamps annually has more than doubled since 2007. Here too, the need is nowhere close to returning to pre-recession levels.</p>
<p>Home ownership – is one those under-reported trends. Despite years of low interest rates, the percentage of U.S. families owning a home is in sharp decline. This is more than a 10-year low. The very long-term data show this is the lowest level of homeownership in 48 years.</p>
<p>Federal debt as a percentage of US GDP. The actual dollar amount of this debt is around $18 trillion -- with a “T.” It’s hard to see a ‘recovery’ here. The debt hasn’t begun to return to the pre-recession levels of 2007.</p>
<p>Money-printing. More than just paper dollars, this is how much liquidity the Fed pumps into the economy – mostly as excess reserves for major banks. Which is to say, lenders have a supply of money ($4 trillion from under $1 trillion in 2007) but there’s very little demand from borrowers.</p>
<p>(End of Article)</p>
<p>So where do we stand? &nbsp;War is coming.</p>
<p>Again we turn to commentary by Martin Armstrong…</p>
<p>As CNN pointed out, the bombing continues. Now, hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria to join a major ground offensive in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Clearly, the civil war in Syria is escalating. We will see this unfold as a proxy war directly between U.S. and Russia with China supporting the Russian side in this game. This conflict is turning regional and global in scope by drawing in the world powers all because the U.S. war machine thinks this is a game.</p>
<p>Russian warplanes have been targeting rebels trained by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, placing Moscow and Washington on opposing sides in a Middle East conflict for the first time since the Cold War. This should be of great concern because historically, these things become an important event. As the economy in Russia turns down, the government needs a distraction and this is it. We will see the same trend emerge in the USA when the economy turns down, as war is necessary to distract the people from the non-establishment candidates for 2016, the social defaults, and the need to raise taxes for war.</p>
<p>(end of Article)</p>
<p><strong>What about gold?</strong></p>
<p>If the Fed increases the money supply, it will NOT drive gold higher. Gold will rise when confidence in government declines. That is the issue.</p>
<p>Gold went down from 1980 to 1999 while the money supply rose considerably. &nbsp;Gold rose from 2001 to 2011 because the banking system was coming under duress and the loss of confidence in Government. &nbsp;Gold declined from 2011 once that fear abated, and yet the money supply doubled.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Gold will begin its rise once the confidence of government is lost.</p>
<p>Whether that is in line if QE4 is announced is a matter which remains to be seen.</p>
<p>All in all, we are now in the window of time for a long term low (Oct 2015-June 2016). &nbsp;Whether we have seen the final low in gold is yet to be determined. &nbsp;We still need to see more upside action to proclaim the final low is in place. &nbsp;One thing for sure, we are getting close now to the long term low.&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>We discussed Friday on the gold report for subscribers that It came down to whether gold would hold the 1097-1105 area. &nbsp;If it held, we favored a test of 1122. &nbsp;On the signals page, we discussed a trade of buying gold at 1107 (with a stop at 1097) could lead to a move to 1142. &nbsp;We hit 1142 today. &nbsp;If you took that trade move your stop to 1119 or look to take profits now or near 1172.&nbsp;</p>
<p>On the very short term, gold has resistance at 1142-1148 and 1165-1172. &nbsp;We reached 1142 on Monday. &nbsp;Any pullback should find support at 1119-1125. &nbsp;There is minor support near 1131 (the 200 hour moving average). &nbsp; This view has gold NEUTRAL as the blue moving average is still below the green. &nbsp;Tuesday resistance should be 1142-1148. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/GolHrly5Oct2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>On an intermediate term basis, we can see that gold is trapped in a triangle formation and under the 2015 downtrend line. &nbsp;A close above 1148 should lead to higher prices (1165-1172) next. &nbsp;Here too the moving averages highlight 1121-1126 as support on pullbacks. &nbsp;A close above 1148 flips the trend bullish. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/Gol8hrOct52015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long term Moving averages 1295 – 1386</strong></p>
<p><strong>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1163-1182</strong></p>
<p>Gold continues supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. &nbsp; Support remains that white line we bounced off on the lows and the three red lines under price. &nbsp;Until we crack below that level it is possible for gold to continue its quest higher at the moment. &nbsp;On a weekly basis, the 1163-1182 area is the resistance zone with 1222-1258 as key reversal points. &nbsp;The dual yellow downtrend line is also key. &nbsp;As long as we are below that area, the downtrend on a medium term is still intact for now. &nbsp;On the downside, any weekly close below 1072 suggests the downtrend has resumed. &nbsp;Until then, its possible for gold to continue higher.&nbsp;</p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/resources/Pictures/2015/October/Daily/XgldWkly1Oct2015.gif" border="0"><br>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3562067
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3562067Bill DowneyWed, 23 Sep 2015 19:20:02 GMTGold Short and Medium Term Price Points to Watch<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Gold’s pullback on Tuesday held the now KEY WEEKLY 1115-1122 area and has now bounce back to resistance near 1132. &nbsp;We have 1132-1136 and also the gold downtrend line (which is the 2015 downtrend) right near 1140. &nbsp; In addition the 1148-1152 area is final resistance until around 1172. &nbsp; The key now is if we can hold the Tuesday low of 1122. &nbsp;If so then a test of the 1134-1142 and potentially 1148-1152 should take place. &nbsp;At least that’s what the odds favor. &nbsp;Bottom line is if we lose 1115-1122 all bets are off for higher towards 1148. &nbsp;The moving average resistance on the blue 89 hour is also at 1132 so that is the key area (1132-1136) to watch Wednesday.</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/Sept/Daily/GolHrly23SepB2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1295 – 1386</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1184-1226</p>
<p>Gold continues supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. &nbsp;The pullback to 1100 last week however held and the possibility that the bounce was complete has changed as gold closed back above 1122 last week. &nbsp;Support remains that white line we bounced off on the lows and the three red lines under price. &nbsp;Until we crack below that level it is possible for gold to continue its quest higher at the moment. &nbsp;On a weekly basis, the 1172-1190 area is the resistance zone with 1222-1258 as key reversal points. &nbsp;The dual yellow downtrend line is also key. &nbsp;As long as we are below that area, the downtrend on a medium term is still intact for now. &nbsp;On the downside, any weekly close below 1072 suggests the downtrend has resumed. &nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold weekly price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold weekly price chart with support and resistance lines" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/Sept/Daily/Xgld23Sep2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3541157
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3541157Bill DowneyFri, 11 Sep 2015 14:43:10 GMTGold medium term trend still down<p>Gold Medium Term</p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1177-1192</p>
<p>Gold supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market had August moving higher from 1077 to 1167. &nbsp;But now it is possible that the bounce is complete. &nbsp;Support remains that white line we bounced off on the lows and the three red lines under price. &nbsp;Until we get above that dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term trend in gold remains down. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/Sept/Daily/Xgld9Sep2015.gif" title="Gold weekly price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold weekly price chart with support and resistance lines" width="689" height="488" border="0"></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3520803
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3520803Bill DowneyThu, 03 Sep 2015 14:40:20 GMTGold short term support and resistance points<p>Gold Report ~ Sep 3 2015</p>
<p>Short Term ~Neutral– A close below 1103-1109 would go back to bearish.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1134-1137 &nbsp;2nd tier 1147-1153</p>
<p>Support 1115-1122 2nd tier 1107-1112</p>
<p>Our last subscriber update gave support at 1121-1126 and the low since then so far is 1122. &nbsp;Resistance was listed at 1140-1150 and the high since then has been 1147. &nbsp;</p>
<p>We have long discussed the coming liquidity crisis and debt collapse and the action in August warns we are getting much closer to such an event unfolding. &nbsp;This event will take about 4 years to play out. &nbsp;</p>
<p>What we are going to see first is a continued effort by the governments to confiscate as much of your money as possible, to disarm you and to eliminate cash and go to electronic money. &nbsp;During that time public confidence is going to turn against government and as far as gold having its day, it will come during the collapse in confidence and the rise in interest rates.</p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>The key area to watch is the pivot in the 1115-1122 area. &nbsp;If we lose that support on a closing basis then odds favor we move to either the 1110 area or 1095. &nbsp; Any close below 1109 and we should see prices back under 1100.</p>
<p>Resistance now builds at the 1134-1137 area and 1147-1153. &nbsp; A weekly close above 1149 would favor higher into mid-month towards 1172-1200. &nbsp; A weekly close below 1109 would favor lower into mid-month. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>That’s really the short term bottom line………we must hold 1115-1122 or we’re heading towards those lower price points short term. &nbsp; On the upside we need to close back above 1136 and then a weekly above 1148 if the rally is to continue.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/Sept/Daily/GolHrly3Sep2015.gif" title="Gold hourly price chart" alt="Gold hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>IT comes down now to whether the short term cycles do their work. &nbsp;They do 75% of the time, but there is no such indicator that always works. &nbsp;If they play out, gold should rally to mid month and then turn down.</p>
<p>The showdown should be the NFP report on Friday morning as to the short term trend.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>It is not out of the question to say that the gold bottom is in place as we have had a 50% retracement of the entire rally since 1999. &nbsp; But there is still no indication that the TREND on a medium term basis has turned up. &nbsp; Its best to remain cautious, and to continue to believe that the downtrend in gold is not yet complete. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>September is a transitory month and it has been the killer month for gold since 2011. &nbsp;If we are still in a bear market gold could very well turn down again this month.</p>
<p>We need a weekly close above 1148 in order to favor higher prices towards 1172-1200. &nbsp;Until then, proceed with caution.</p>
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</div>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3508844
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3508844Bill DowneyMon, 31 Aug 2015 01:47:39 GMTGold short term cycle turn due this week<p><strong><font style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="450" height="73" title="Launch www.GoldTrends.net" style="width: 168px; height: 26px;" alt="Launch www.GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" border="0" y="0" x="0">&nbsp;</font></strong></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">We are working on an update for later tonight. &nbsp;But lets look at the aspect of short term timing and our short term cycles.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">First off, there are no technical or any other indicators that will work for timing or trend changes 100% of the time. &nbsp;Indeed, many are often no better than 50/50. &nbsp;That means guessing is just as right. &nbsp;Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. &nbsp; In the world of cycles, many expect the cycles to have EXACT time at each cycle. &nbsp; That's like expecting winter to START no earlier and no later than Dec 21st. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">In other words cycles have standard deviation time. &nbsp; In the short term cycle below, its plus or minus 72 hours.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">In a bull market , &nbsp;Blue lows and red highs are the "preferred" rotation in bullish markets. &nbsp;<br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font>When we have RED bottoms and bl</font><span><font>ue tops ---- the cycle inverts and the rotation changes.</font></span></font>&nbsp;</p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/Sept/GolCyc30Aug2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">In gold cycles, &nbsp; a bear market rally usually (but not always) during August. &nbsp; They usually peak during the 1st two weeks of Sept.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">In a bull market --- the summer rally last until Mid October, down in November and BACK up until mid-February--- and in real strong markets, until Mid March.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">Two weeks ago, &nbsp;price had broken down on the red cycle and all was running ok in cycle land. &nbsp;But the Yuan devaluation and its major downturn in equities as well as a global recession on the horizon, coming debt default and there's giving a lot to think about.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">When we have tremendous&nbsp;corrections&nbsp;in other markets, gold reacts. &nbsp;When you look at the chart, gold turned down on the last red cycle right on time. &nbsp; But there was too much pressure in the global markets and gold had a three day reaction higher at that time. &nbsp;Since then, gold moved lower into late last week just under 1120 before the bounce on Friday. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">Now lets look back at the chart. &nbsp;A blue cycle low is due Aug 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;Thus the window for a turn opened up Friday (and that was the low so far on the pullback. &nbsp; That means gold bottomed on Friday -- OR--- has about a 75% chance of making a short term bottom between now Wednesday and turning up into mid month. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">A few things to consider........ &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">First the global markets are in turmoil and as you saw last week, &nbsp; gold did and inverted the cycle. &nbsp;In other words, &nbsp; we have a 75% chance of making a bottom and a rally to mid -month. &nbsp;75 % is not 100%. &nbsp;Keep that in mind.</font> <font style="font-size: 12px;">Second is if gold is still in a bear market as it has since 2011, &nbsp; then the rally is due to peak in September. &nbsp; Sometimes there are major turns in markets right after labor day.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">That still doesn't solve whether we rally to mid- month beginning this week or &nbsp;if gold will have a 2nd inversion at this blue cycle and keep moving lower to mid-month. &nbsp; From an odds standpoint, &nbsp;its only a 5% chance of a 2nd inversion in a row. &nbsp;They are rare------ but i've seen a handful. &nbsp;And they often occur during volatile situations like is occuring in China, Europe and many other nations.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">Third ---- its the end of the month (Aug) and that means Futures trading has now (for the most part moved to the DEC futures. &nbsp;That sometimes can make for a tricky day in price.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">Finally looking back at the chart we see the CHANNEL line running across last weeks low. &nbsp;NOW PRICE HAS TO BREAK THAT DOWNTRENDING channel that has been capping the price action.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">Friday's price action closed right at the 50 day average. &nbsp;Watch that area.&nbsp;</font> <span style="font-size: 24px;"><font style="font-size: 12px;">We'll have more on the subscriber update, which we are trying to have by tonight --- or tomorrow morning at the latest.</font></span> <span style="font-size: 24px;"><font style="font-size: 12px;">As for a trade, &nbsp;that blue line on the chart &nbsp;WHERE PRICE HIT on last weeks low also is an &nbsp;area to watch carefully.</font></span> <span style="font-size: 24px;"><font style="font-size: 12px;">I have no recommendation for a trade entry just yet, and I don't like to initiate a trade on SUNDAY nights. We will be watching closely tomorrow morning on the price action for clues and if gold can turn up. &nbsp;We will publish the full gold report at that time.</font></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3502595
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3502595Bill DowneyMon, 24 Aug 2015 15:05:34 GMTGold short term update<div>
<strong><a href="http://www.goldtrends.net/" title="Launch GoldTrends.net" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans-ds2.png" alt="Launch GoldTrends.net" border="0" height="31" width="200"></a>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The gold rally we had did initially peak at 1126, but the pullback found support just under 1110 and the destruction in the world stock markets, the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan, and the major global slowdown we have been expecting as well as the coming debt default is well underway.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">This has spurred some money coming out of stocks and currencies into gold (and the US bond market). &nbsp; There was a heavy load of short positions in gold and the buying has induced a lot of short covering.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">When we take into account that 1080 was a 50% retracement of the entire gold rally since 1999, &nbsp;prices ran beyond 1126 in a cycle inversion and price has reached the next resistance targets.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">On the chart below we can see that 1167-1173 is where we should expect the next resistance point and that has been in play since Thursday. &nbsp; The pullback to 1149 has held and we are testing resistance again. &nbsp; The other area of potential is 1194-1204. &nbsp; We can't rule that out because the PATTERN on the chart since the low looks impulsive. &nbsp; But lets go to the next chart .</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The concern here is silver. &nbsp; If this were a true bull market taking off, silver should not be acting this way. &nbsp; They almost always are joined in lockstep during a move. &nbsp; Of course, &nbsp;this time we are facing a global currency crisis and certainly that has to be taken into account as gold (in the end) is the ultimate currency. &nbsp;But we certainly should be on guard due to its action. &nbsp; It should at least hold gold today in the 1167-1173 area. &nbsp;Let's look at one more chart.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">The currency and stock market panic did invoke a cycle inversion on our last red cycle. &nbsp;As you can see, pricese began the selloff but the money flow into gold was too much and we have inverted. &nbsp;This will lead to a blue cycle high and that is a BEARISH rotation when blue cycle highs occur. &nbsp; But could gold invert again at a blue cycle? &nbsp; Yes, &nbsp;but we have only seen 3 in the past 10 years so it is not a high odds favored event. &nbsp; So yes, it can, &nbsp;but the odds are low. &nbsp; You can see we are at resistance here also on the daily chart. &nbsp; However, if it is penetrated and we close above 1172, then the 200 day average near 1186 will become the next target. &nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="2">In summary, its best to lay low for today and see if 1167-1173 holds price. &nbsp;Cycles still point higher into the end of the week but in order to enter a position here would not have high risk reward ratio's. &nbsp; Perhaps a pullback to the 50 day blue average at 1137 would be a consideration. &nbsp; It will be interesting to see how silver react's also as it doesn't look good. &nbsp; I'll do a full daily update this evening with other charts and dialog and consider if we should enter on a pullback.&nbsp;</font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3493421
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3493421Bill DowneyMon, 17 Aug 2015 14:03:34 GMTGold Update<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Neutral</strong>– Market short term cycles due to peak between last Friday and this Tuesday</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1128-1135 &nbsp;2nd tier 1154-1160</p>
<p>Support 1103-1112 2nd tier 1072-1082</p>
<p>Our last resistance listed 2nd tier at 1122-1125 and the price high since then has been 1126. &nbsp;</p>
<p>We have often discussed in our newsletter that the inflation or loss of purchasing power we see in prices is NOT a result of RAW COMMODITY inflation. &nbsp;Rather it is a result of massive price increases in government taxes, permits, licenses, fees, services, excise and a host of other charges to support the massive bureaucracy, spending and pensions for the huge amount of employees. &nbsp;These increases along with massive regulations (also to support government pen pusher jobs) has increased cost to business in a substantial way. &nbsp;All of these costs are passed along to consumers.</p>
<p>All of the price increases we have seen since 1998 are a direct result of the above and not COMMmanODITY PRICE increases.&nbsp;</p>
<p>On top of all that, the debt levels both public and private has reached a level where it can no longer be sustained and thus the average consumer (who is living on purchasing power the same as it was in the 70’s) becomes more and more squeezed that over the course of time the paycheck buys less and less and now we have arrived at a point where most can only afford food, clothing and shelter. &nbsp;That means that economies are not growing. &nbsp;Indeed, it takes non-discretionary spending to spur economic growth.&nbsp;</p>
<p>When we couple all of the above with 10,000 baby boomers retiring a day, it can only lead to a global economic slowdown.</p>
<p>That is what we are now seeing. &nbsp;And the result this time will not be a recession, but a global debt default which will lead to a massive life change for most of the planet. &nbsp;</p>
<p>While there are strong forces that don’t want the price of gold to go up, we should realize that commodity deflation is a very strong factor that is also helping to keep pressure on gold. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Commodities sometimes bottom (or peak) earlier than gold and vice versa for periods of up to six months, but they almost always follow the same overall direction. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Oil hit a six-year low this week, reaching $42 a barrel. &nbsp;Odds favor that it will bounce briefly from here, but eventually reach the $32 support level we saw in late 2008.</p>
<p>This trend in the price of oil, alongside the steady decline in almost all commodity prices doesn’t bode well for the future of stock markets across the globe either.</p>
<p>Overall, odds favor that the correction in gold is in its final stages, but that does not mean that the final price low is in yet. &nbsp;Gold has corrected 50% of the entire rally and while that is certainly an important number to watch (the 1040-1080 area in gold), there is still not any evidence that the final low in gold and silver have been made. &nbsp;Odds favor that Oct 2015-June 2016 is the most likely and favored timeframe for the final lows in metals.&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Commodity Prices: Predicting a Substantial Stock Crash</p>
<p>By Harry Dent, August 13, 2015 &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I recently explained that it’s one thing for a central bank to artificially prop up its own stock market. It’s another thing entirely to even imagine doing something similar to falling oil prices. What’ll they do – buy oil futures? Give me a break.</p>
<p>Oil hit a six-year low this week. As I write this, it’s around $43, closer yet to the $42 target I forecast when oil bounced back to $63. After another tepid bounce, it will very likely fall to the $32 support level we saw in late 2008. John Kilduff, a leading oil analyst who will be speaking at our Irrational Economic Summit in Vancouver next month, sees this happening earlier than his original Christmas call.</p>
<p>But oil just got another kick in the shins this week when China decided to return to its old tricks again.</p>
<p>The People’s Bank of China’s move to intentionally lowered its currency ‑ to fight the slowdown made all too obvious by an 8.5% decline in exports – is fundamentally no different than injecting $0.5 trillion into its stock market’s bloodstream or buying empty condos to keep its real estate from tanking. It’s one economic manipulation after the other!</p>
<p>This raised concern over China’s demand for commodities. A weaker yuan probably means fewer imports, and so less demand. As a result, oil and other commodity prices slumped.</p>
<p>All of this might be just a segue way into a much greater point – the overarching collapse in commodity prices that is already beginning to ravage the emerging world. This will only get worse in the years to come, and will quickly take our own stock market down with it.</p>
<p>Commodity prices move in a 30-year cycle that has run like clockwork over the past century. Overall, it’s been pretty reliable since the early 1800s.</p>
<p>We’ve been in a “down cycle” since commodity prices peaked in mid-2008. And in line with the cycle, they won’t bottom out until around the early 2020s – likely by 2023 at the latest.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>There are two major reasons for this:</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>No. 1: The demographic slowdown in developed nations, which affects demand.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>And No. 2: The economic slowdown in China</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The Chinese have dominated the consumption of industrial metals and energy for years to feed the country’s rapidly-growing economy and global manufacturing export machine.</p>
<p>For these reasons, as much as commodities have fallen – 57% overall, and up to 80% in oil and 70% in iron and coal – they still have further to fall in a series of continued crashes.</p>
<p>More importantly, this continues to be the best leading indicator of the global financial crisis ahead because it affects stock markets in both the emerging and developed worlds.</p>
<p>Now, I’ve shown before how commodity prices move more in tandem with emerging market stocks. Much more so than a stock index like the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<p>Look at the chart below. It compares two leading measurements for commodities and emerging stocks: the CRB commodities index, and EEM, the ETF for emerging market stocks:</p>
<p>commodities</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/CrbVsEem16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>That correlation is plain as day.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>See the evidence for yourself. World-renowned business strategist Harry Dent believes the final and most devastating phase of the financial crisis is just weeks away.&nbsp;</p>
<p>But as you can tell, there’s been a growing divergence building between the two since the middle of last year. There’s now a 33% gap.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean the correlation has stopped working. It just means emerging market stocks have at least that much to fall.</p>
<p>They’re already down 36% from their top in late 2007. We’ll likely see that gap close with a breakdown in emerging market stocks in the months ahead.</p>
<p>I expect the EEM index to hit $18 by early 2017 (a 50% crash from here). Ultimately, I see it going as low as $10 by 2020 to 2023 as commodity prices continue to fall through the years to come.</p>
<p>At $36, this index is already testing its three-year lows. The final support level is the 2011 low of $33.50. A break below $36 shows clear weakness. A break below $33.50? That would mean curtains for emerging market stocks.</p>
<p>But like I said, falling commodity prices hurts stocks in developed countries too.</p>
<p>Here’s a chart to explain:</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/CrbVsS_p16Aug23015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>This one suggests that the S&amp;P 500 is ready to fall as well. And overall, it strongly suggests that U.S. and developed country stocks are about to crash something like 25% to 30% or more.</p>
<p>This chart shows that changes in commodity prices and forward S&amp;P 500 earnings per share roughly follow one another. When one goes down, typically, the other goes with it.</p>
<p>If commodity prices fall, it brings global trade down with it. That leaves S&amp;P 500 companies in a world of hurt since so much of their sales are overseas. And since analysts are always looking forward, earnings are going to be revised lower as trade overseas continues to weaken. When that happens, stocks will follow!</p>
<p>Like I said, I expect a 25% to 30% crash, minimum, in the first wave down in the next stock crash. That’s similar to the recent China crash.</p>
<p>Such a crash is most likely to begin in the classic crash season between late August and mid-October of this year.</p>
<p>So be sure to get as defensive as you possibly can in your investments by late August. That goes especially for any bounces in stocks or even oil we might see. They’ll likely occur just ahead before a larger crash sets in.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Gold made its move to the 1125 area highlighted on the last update as a potential and has since pulled back to support near 1110. &nbsp;The big question now is whether it has more strength and can keep going. &nbsp;Short term cycles suggest no, but they can invert 25% of the time. &nbsp;Still it’s a time to be cautious for a short term peak that could last until month end.</p>
<p>The 50% total retracement of the entire correction at 1072-1080 is key support. &nbsp;As long as we maintain a close above 1103-1110, the short term uptrend can continue so that’s the first area to watch.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gol8Hr16Ayg2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Interest rates</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bullish for higher rates</p>
<p>Moving averages 21.13 – 21.06</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The pullback in rates held right at the moving averages on the weekly charts and a move back up to test the long term green channel line is underway again. &nbsp;The moving averages are turning up and that is a good that that if we take out the green trend line and the white one just above it, higher rates will become the medium term trend. &nbsp; This time it won’t be because of good economic numbers, but of panic.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Yes higher rates will potentially sell gold off, but it will be a fake out and part of the final wave down for gold. &nbsp;The trend in rates is not far from turning up on a medium term basis. &nbsp;As long as we hold the moving averages, and then take out the green trend line, odds will favor higher rates. &nbsp;And higher rates will be bullish for gold. &nbsp;Perhaps not quite at first, but certainly as the trend accelerates.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/TnxWkly16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle turn is due now, &nbsp;August 14th, plus or minus 72 hours. &nbsp;The bounce we expected on the last update did occur last week, but it was a quick one. &nbsp; It’s quite possible that the bounce is complete and prices are ready to turn down to month end. &nbsp;That is what the odds favor. &nbsp;But August can be a tricky month for gold so its not out of the question that we can get a cycle inversion (25% chance.) &nbsp; Other than that we still should favor a pullback to begin to month end. &nbsp;A close below 1103-1110 would be the first sign that the pullback is underway. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Should prices go higher than last week, then look for resistance at 1140, at the 50 day average. &nbsp;In summary, we should favor a pullback to month end.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCyc16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bearish</p>
<p>Medium Term Moving averages – 164 – 171</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Moving averages – 112.21 – 112.63 – NEUTRAL</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>We last discussed the medium term trend still being down but a short term bounce to the 120 area could develop first. &nbsp;That is how last week played out and now the question is whether it has more? &nbsp; As long as we hold above the moving averages on a closing basis at 112, the potential for higher will remain in play. &nbsp;A close below 111 will favor lower to month end.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Hui16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1190-1200</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Gold supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. &nbsp;Odds continue to favor gold will attempt a bounce here, but on a medium term basis, there is still no evidence that this will be the final low. &nbsp;Not that it is out of the question, but it’s not the odds favored point.</p>
<p>Just the same, odds are high here that gold should hold the 1040-1080 area and at least try a rally attempt during August. &nbsp; As long as we are below the dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term remains bearish.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XgldWkly16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 105.23 – 105.17 –neutral</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>GLD did find support at 103 and how the test is to overcome the moving averages on a short term basis. &nbsp;That will be 1st resistance but also that gap in price on the way down at the 107-108 area and the white line at 109 is also resistance. &nbsp;We got the push to that area last week and now it’s a question of whether we reach the white line at 109 before a pullback goes back in motion. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend &nbsp;moving averages 13.93-13.87 &nbsp;- Neutral</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it the trends remain down. On a shorter term basis, price did bounce back and fill the gap as favored last week. &nbsp;With that said, the trend is now neutral and its not out of the question for price to test the green trend line next.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gdx16Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>What next ?</strong></p>
<p>The bounce to mid-August has been mild and while the bounce can continue to months end, we need to remain cautious as short term cycles could again begin another downturn this week. &nbsp;Most commodities are in downtrends and thus we should remain favoring the downside overall.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>We got the bounce expected last week, but short term cycles favor we are peaking with another pullback to month end. &nbsp;A close above 1126 would put that forecast into question. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3484070
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3484070Bill DowneyMon, 10 Aug 2015 15:46:06 GMTGold Short term bounce rally underway<p><strong>Gold Update Aug 10 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> - Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Neutral</strong>– market at short term bottom at 1070-1080 and a rally to 1105-1110 or 1125 expected.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1105-1112 &nbsp;2nd tier 1122-1125</p>
<p>Support 1072-1082 2nd tier 1040-1150</p>
<p>Our last resistance listed 1094-1104 and price has just reached 1103 in the last half hour (11 am Mon)&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Our last update favored a potential turn up to 1103-1108 and while the chart shows 1096 as the last, over the course of the last 30 mins, gold has turned up to 1103. &nbsp;It looks like the 1106-1110 area is the next resistance area and we favor a move there. &nbsp;Gold remains heavily shorted and thus we should consider this short covering for now. &nbsp; But there is a decent base that was formed at the 1080 area. &nbsp;We highlighted the potential to hold there as this area is the 50% total retracement of the entire correction. &nbsp; In addition, seasonal factors are positive for August as the Indian wedding season approaches and gold buying for Christmas products usually occur at this time of the year.</p>
<p>Support remains SOLID right now at 1072-1080. &nbsp; In summary, 1st resistance should be 1106-1110 with the potential to move to 1125.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHrly10aUG2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Interest rates</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bullish for higher rates</p>
<p>Moving averages 21.11 – 21.07</p>
<p>The pullback in rates held right at the moving averages on the weekly charts and a move back up to test the long term green channel line is underway again. &nbsp;The moving averages are turning up and that is a good that that if we take out the green trend line and the white one just above it, higher rates will become the medium term trend. &nbsp; This time it won’t be because of good economic numbers, but of panic.&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Yes higher rates will potentially sell gold off, but it will be a fake out and part of the final wave down for gold. &nbsp;The trend in rates is not far from turning up on a medium term basis. &nbsp;As long as we hold the moving averages, and then take out the green trend line, odds will favor higher rates. &nbsp;And higher rates will be bullish for gold. &nbsp;Perhaps not quite at first, but certainly as the trend accelerates.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Tnx19Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle turn is due August 14th, plus or minus 72 hours. &nbsp;Odds favor the bounce we’ve been expecting should occur this week. &nbsp;However, it is important to note that the cycle window does open tomorrow and will last until the end of the week. &nbsp;That favors a high in gold this week with a short term pullback to the end of the month. &nbsp;If that develops, odds favor that Sept should see a decent bounce. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;A close above 1103-1108 should lead to a bounce in the 1130-1150 area. &nbsp;Only a close below 1172-1180 would change the short term picture.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Golcyc7Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bearish</p>
<p>Medium Term Moving averages – 164 – 171</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Moving averages – 112.87 – 118.39</p>
<p>On a medium term basis, the next support is that yellow line near the 90 area. &nbsp;Gold stocks have now entered the fifth and final wave down. &nbsp;Either the yellow line holds or a COMPLETE retracement back to where the bull market started in 2001 is going to occur. &nbsp;For now, the potential to move to the 90 area remains as the most likely MEDIUM term scenario, but a bounce higher this week higher could lead to a retrace near the 120 should develop.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Hui7Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1190-1200</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Gold supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. &nbsp;Odds continue to favor gold will attempt a bounce here, but on a medium term basis, there is still no evidence that this will be the final low. &nbsp;Not that it is out of the question, but it’s not the odds favored point.</p>
<p>Just the same, odds are high here that gold should hold the 1040-1080 area and at least try a rally attempt during August. &nbsp; As long as we are below the dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term remains bearish.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XgldWkly10Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 105.23 – 106.25 –bearish</p>
<p>GLD did find support at 103 and how the test is to overcome the moving averages on a short term basis. &nbsp;That will be 1st resistance but also that gap in price on the way down at the 107-108 area and the white line at 109 is also resistance. &nbsp;Odds favor a push to that area short term and then we’ll see. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld10Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend &nbsp; 15.50 – 16.87 ~ Bearish</p>
<p>Resistance is at 13.88-14.42</p>
<p>GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it the trends remain down. On a shorter term basis, price should bounce back and fill the gap and test the moving averages near 14-15 and the moving averages. With that said, the trend is still bearish.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld10Aug2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>What next ?</strong></p>
<p>While the trends remain down in gold, we should be nearing a summer low in gold and the miners. &nbsp;Odds are high that we should see a bounce into Mid August. Support should be 1072-1082. &nbsp;However any close below 1072-1080 will warn of yet new lows into mid August.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>It’s best to remain bearish overall but to expect a bounce of some type here. &nbsp;The key will be whether it overcomes short term resistance at 1105-1110 and near 1125. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3473175
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3473175Bill DowneyThu, 06 Aug 2015 01:44:27 GMTGold report Aug 6 2015<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Gold Report ~ Aug 6 2015<br>
Trend<br>
<strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br>
<strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> - Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.<br>
<strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.<br>
<strong>Short Term ~Bearish</strong>– market should be near a short term bottom at 1070-1080 but a close below 1072 will add to downside pressure.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1094-1104&nbsp; 2nd tier 1108-1113<br>
Support 1072-1082 2nd tier 1040-1150</p>
<p><br>
<strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p><br>
Gold still looks very weak and the Tuesday close below 1185 leaves the downside open for more potential damage.&nbsp; Gold must hold 1072 on Wednesday or lower prices towards the 1033-1050 area will be next.&nbsp; Any close below 1072-1080 will warn of lower prices.&nbsp; However, if we hold this area on Wednesday, there is still a potential gold can begin a climb to the upside first resistance area of 1103-1108. But this development must happen soon or gold will soon give way.&nbsp; In summary, any close below 1072-1080 will leave the downside open for gold and another potential drop into mid-month.</p>
<p><br>
With that said, gold is oversold and over shorted.&nbsp; It is still possible for gold to turn up here, but time is running out to do so.</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold hourly price chart" alt="Gold hourly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHr5Aug2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Interest rates</strong><br>
Medium Term – Neutral<br>
Moving averages 21.11 – 21.07</p>
<p>The pullback in rates held right at the moving averages on the weekly charts and a move back up to test the long term green channel line is underway again.&nbsp; This comes after Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart’s comments that the Fed is poised to raise rates.&nbsp; This is one of the added pressures on gold at the moment as the control boyz have the crowd convinced that higher rates are bad for gold.&nbsp; They will only be bad initially.&nbsp;</p>
<p><br>
Yes higher rates will potentially sell gold off, but it will be a fake out and part of the final wave down for gold.&nbsp; The trend in rates is not far from turning up on a medium term basis.&nbsp; As long as we hold the moving averages, and then take out the green trend line, odds will favor higher rates.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<img width="690" height="444" title="10 Year T Note rates weekly price chart" alt="10 Year T Note rates weekly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/TnxWkly5Aug2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>&nbsp;<br>
Cycles</strong><br>
The next cycle turn is due August 14th, plus or minus 72 hours.&nbsp; Odds favor a bounce develops from here.&nbsp; A close above 1103-1108 should lead to a bounce in the 1130-1150 area.&nbsp; However, a close below 1072-1080 will warn of lower price potentials and&nbsp; a cycle inversion to mid-month.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/golcyc3aug2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>HUI</strong><br>
Medium Term – Bearish<br>
Medium Term Moving averages – 165 – 171<br>
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 118 – 124</p>
<p>On a medium term basis, the next support is that yellow line near the 90 area.&nbsp; Gold stocks have now entered the fifth and final wave down.&nbsp; Either the yellow line holds or a COMPLETE retracement back to where the bull market started in 2001 is going to occur.&nbsp; For now, the potential to move to the 90 area remains as the most likely MEDIUM term scenario.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
<img width="690" height="444" title="HUI gold stock index price chart" alt="HUI gold stock index price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/HuiWk5Aug2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p><br>
<strong>Gold Medium Term</strong><br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429<br>
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1196-1203</p>
<p><br>
Gold is trying to from support at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market.&nbsp; Odds favor gold will attempt a bounce here, but on a medium term basis, there is still no evidence that this will be the final low.&nbsp; Not that it is out of the question, but it’s not the odds favored point.</p>
<p>Just the same, odds are high here that gold should hold the 1040-1080 area and at least try a rally attempt during August.&nbsp;&nbsp; As long as we are below the dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term remains bearish.<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold weekly price chart" alt="Gold weekly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XgldWkly5Aug2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
GOLD ETF GLD<strong><br></strong>Moving Average Trend ~ 106.00 – 107.00 –bearish</p>
<p>GLD is also trying to find support but is close to giving way to the next support area of 98.&nbsp; It won’t take much more to move it lower. If GLD is to turn it needs to do so very soon.&nbsp; Resistance is the 106 area and then 108-111.&nbsp; The short term trend remains down.<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold ETF GLD price chart" alt="Gold ETF GLD price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld5Aug2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>GDX</strong><br>
Intermediate term Trend&nbsp;&nbsp; 15.50 – 16.87 ~ Bearish<br>
Resistance is at 14.30-14.90</p>
<p>GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it the trends remain down. On a shorter term basis, price should bounce back and fill the gap and test the moving averages near 14-15. With that said, the trend is still bearish.<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="GDX price chart" alt="GDX price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gdx5Aug2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
What next ?<br>
While the trends remain down in gold, we should be nearing a summer low in gold and the miners.&nbsp; Odds are high that we should see a bounce into Mid August. Support should be 1072-1082.&nbsp; <strong>However any close below 1072-1080 will warn of yet new lows into mid August.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong><br>
It’s best to remain bearish overall but a bounce of some type can very well develop here.<br>
Gold needs to close above 1094 and then 1108 in order to favor a bounce to mid month will take place.&nbsp; But gold is running out of time and must turn soon or face another downdraft.</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3467291
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3467291Bill DowneyWed, 29 Jul 2015 02:51:22 GMTGold favors rebound into Mid August<p><strong>Gold Report ~ July 29 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> - Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.</p>
<p>Short Term ~Bearish– market should be near a short term bottom at 1070-1080.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1103-1113 &nbsp;2nd tier 1128-1138</p>
<p>Support 1080-1090 2nd tier 1040-1150</p>
<p>Resistance has been listed at 1115-1122 and the high since the last update has been 1108. &nbsp;Support has been listed at 1080-1090 and the low has been 1077.</p>
<p>The greatest crisis we face is the destruction of liquidity that government is causing by their hunt for loose change. Their desperate need for money is tearing the world economy apart at the seams. Even in Europe, the attempt to force a political union upon people by denying them the right to vote is ripping apart the cooperative connections established following World War II with the Treaty of Rome. The forced monetary and political union in Brussels undermines what they were trying to create – European Peace. (Martin Armstrong)</p>
<p>The game is afoot to eliminate CASH. According to reliable sources, Maestro is seriously under attack. In Germany, Maestro was a multi-national debit card service owned by MasterCard and founded in 1992. Maestro cards obtained from associate banks and can be linked to the cardholder’s current account, or they can be used as prepaid cards. Already we see the cancellation of such cards and the issuing of new debit cards. Why? The new cards cannot be used at an ATM outside of Germany to obtain cash. Any attempt to get cash can only be an advance on a credit card. &nbsp;(Martin Armstrong)</p>
<p>The CME has closed floor trading, which I contend will add to the crisis in LIQUIDITY. It is true that the argument has been that the floor traders amount to only a small percentage of the actual trading volume. However, they provide liquidity when there are gaps in electronic trading. In the process, many contracts have been eliminated and/or replaced with mini-contracts for retail. There are no more Dow futures contracts. The closure of so many contracts reflects the real crisis we have in LIQUIDITY. (Martin Armstrong)</p>
<p><strong>Interest rates</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Neutral</p>
<p>Moving averages 21.12 – 21.07</p>
<p>We have been watching interest rates for a clue that higher rates are coming. &nbsp;For a brief moment rates moved above the 34 year green trendline to the next line resistance just above it and rates peaked and have now moved lower back under the green trend line. &nbsp;Now the key is whether the moving averages become support. The blue line has slightly moved above the red but just by 5 ticks. &nbsp;If the pullback supports the moving averages and then closes back above the green line, the key is going to be that white line just above it. &nbsp;If rates move above it, around 26 then the trend will turn to higher rates on the medium term. &nbsp;We’re not sure if gold will drop one more time, but the key is that once rates begin to move higher, gold should not be far behind with a bear market low. &nbsp;The key target date for a gold low remains Oct 2015 – June 2016. &nbsp;However, that doesn’t mean it will be exactly then as that is the most likely time and standard deviation. &nbsp;The key is we are getting closer to that time frame. &nbsp;That’s why it will be important to watch rates when they do give a signal that the medium term has turned up. &nbsp;The pullback has been due to a flight to quality as stock markets have been under pressure since China buckled. &nbsp;Odds favor the pullback in rates will find support at the moving averages or just below them at the white trend line.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/TnxWkly28Jul2015.gif" title="10 year t-notes price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="10 year t-notes price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Gold is finally getting support at the short term blue 89 hour moving average. &nbsp;The next challenge is the green line at 1103 and the resistance line. &nbsp;Resistance will be 1098-1108 over on Wednesday. &nbsp;Options expiration is over for August and the move out of August Futures is underway. &nbsp;Short term cycles are due and the seasonal turn in miners and gold is also due. &nbsp;Odds favor a short term rally to mid-August should take place. &nbsp;Friday is the last day of the month and thus next week begins August. A lot of indicators are at extremes and thus a bounce is most likely underway. &nbsp;Any pullbacks should find support in the 1080-1087 area. &nbsp; In summary, we should see a move to 1103-1108 and then we will see.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHrly28Jul2015.gif" title="Gold Hourly price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold Hourly price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold since the 2014 peak</strong></p>
<p>Looking out a bit further, it seems gold has formed a price channel that finds support near this 1080 area. &nbsp;On this view it is not out of the question for gold to make a move back to the 1140-1155 area where the breakdown occurred. &nbsp;Odds on this chart also favor support in the 1075-1080 area. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gol8Hr28Jul2015.gif" title="Gold 8 hour price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold 8 hour price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The next cycle turn is due July 31st (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means the window for a turn began today and will run until August 3rd. &nbsp;Odds favor a low to develop that should be the summer low. &nbsp; Every now and then we get a turn outside the window as there is no indicator or cycle measurement that meets its window each time. &nbsp;Still, its best to anticipate one more dip towards 1070-1080. &nbsp;If we get one it should provide a turn higher into Mid August.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCyc28Jul2015.gif" title="Gold cycles price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold cycles price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bearish</p>
<p>Medium Term Moving averages – 167. – 173</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Moving averages – 131 – 137</p>
<p>On a medium term basis, the next support is that yellow line near the 90 area. &nbsp;Gold stocks have now entered the fifth and final wave down. &nbsp;Either the yellow line holds or a COMPLETE retracement back to where the bull market started in 2001 is going to occur. &nbsp;For now, the potential to move to the 90 area remains as the most likely MEDIUM term scenario. &nbsp;On a shorter term basis, a two week low should be forming between now and mid next week.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/HuiWkly28Jul2015.gif" title="HUI gold stock index price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="HUI gold stock index price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="445" border="0"><br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1196-1203</p>
<p>Gold is trying to from support at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. &nbsp;Odds favor gold will attempt a bounce here, but on a medium term basis, there is still no evidence that this will be the final low. &nbsp;Not that it is out of the question, but its not the odds favored point.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Just the same, odds are high here that gold should hold the 1040-1080 area and at least try a rally attempt during August. &nbsp; As long as we are below the dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term remains bearish. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XgldWkly28Jul2015.gif" title="Gold weekly price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold weekly price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 108.39 – 109.69 –bearish</p>
<p>GLD is also trying to find support at the 105 area we have highlighted in the last few reports. &nbsp;Resistance is the 106 area and then 108-111. &nbsp;The short term trend remains down, but a short term bottom could be forming.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld28Jul2015.gif" title="Gold ETF GLD price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Gold ETF GLD price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend &nbsp; 15.50 – 16.87 ~ Bearish</p>
<p>Resistance is at 16.50-17.20</p>
<p>GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it the trends remain down. On a shorter term basis, price should bounce back and fill the gap and test the moving averages.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gdx28Jul2015.gif" title="GDX gold stock ETF price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="GDX gold stock ETF price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0">&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>What next ?</strong></p>
<p>While the trends remain down in gold, we should be nearing a summer low in gold and the miners. &nbsp;Odds are high that we should see a bounce into Mid August. We can still move lower into early next week, but overall a bounce to mid-August should be in the cards.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>It’s best to remain bearish overall but a bounce of some type can very well develop here.&nbsp;</p>
<p>We are getting pretty close to the end as metals and metal stocks are all in their 5th and final wave down of this bear market. &nbsp;</p>
<p>All trends remain down in gold, but a short term bounce here would not be a surprise.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3455836
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3455836Bill DowneyTue, 21 Jul 2015 02:54:44 GMTGold long term charts tell the story of major channel breaks<p><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Gold Report ~ July 21 2015</font></strong><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></strong><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Trend</font></strong><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></strong><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Long Term ~ Bearish</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Medium Term ~ Bearish</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">&nbsp;</font><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">- Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.<br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.<br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Short Term ~Bearish</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">– market remains in trouble for the downside</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Initial Resistance 1115-1122&nbsp; 2nd tier 1128-1133<br>
Support 1080-1090 2nd tier 1040-1150</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">We have for a longt time advocated that no matter how much money they throw at the economies of the world, the debt level is too much and therefore it will most likely do what it has done in the past.&nbsp; Crash from its own weight with a resulting outcome of DEBT DEFAULT.&nbsp; And that my friends is NOT INFLATIONARY--it is the exact opposite.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">The more the governments try to confiscate, the worse its going to get.&nbsp; We said a few years ago that Europe would most likely be the focal point from where the real liquidity crisis emerges and Greece and what the EU is doing has everything pretty much on schedule.&nbsp;&nbsp; The real crisis begins sometime in the next 6 to 12 months.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Meanwhile, gold is doing what it is supposed to.&nbsp; TAKING everyone one out.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">The fact of the matter is that gold is not an inflationary hedge.&nbsp; Gold is a head against a PANIC in confidence and a collapse of government.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">When will things change?</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">When the long term trend in interest rates turn, gold will have its final wave down to wipe out the final hands.&nbsp; Once that is complete, gold will reverse higher with rates as the BULL MARKET for bonds is on its last leg.&nbsp; ONCE THE GREEN channel line that has been intact on the chart below for 34 years becomes support ---------and not resistance, rates will quickly move to the upper white line.&nbsp;&nbsp; Once that upper white line become support,&nbsp; gold will join hands with rates and do just what it did from 1968 to 1980.&nbsp; THEY BOTH WILL MOVE HIGHER.&nbsp; The coming new bear market in bonds won’t be from economic recovery&nbsp; but from economic panic. LOOK how close we are to a red flag as the green channel line of 34 years tries to contain price.&nbsp; It may do so for a while longer, but once it become support rates will move up to the white line pretty quick.&nbsp; Once the white line becomes support, its game over.&nbsp; We have seen the 300 year low (England) and we will soon learn later this year or early next year that the FED HAS NO CONTROL OF THE GLOBAL LONG TERM interest rate.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Yes it can AFFECT rates buy when the BEAR MARKET RETURNS,&nbsp; but the market is too big to control.&nbsp; What to know why the fed has been threatening higher rates but not doing it?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; ITS BECAUSE they are waiting for the chart below to confirm a trend change of higher rates.&nbsp; THEN the Fed will raise rates and make believe this is all their doing.&nbsp;&nbsp; In reality, when it comes to long term rates,&nbsp; the FED is nothing more than trend followers.&nbsp;&nbsp; PERIOD.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/TnxMon20Jul2015.gif" title="10 year interest rates long term chart" alt="10 year interest rates long term chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><strong>Gold</strong></font></p>
<p></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">The last update showed the long term channel line from 2005 had been broken and odds favored lower prices and the big drop today is really part of that technical action.&nbsp; We leave the chart in from the last update below and added the action since last Thursday. Long term LEVERAGED players are getting wiped out.&nbsp; So are those holding gold stocks, and silver has gone from 50 to under 15.&nbsp; While we do have some support at 1080 and 1035-1040,&nbsp; the real next major support is at the 1000 level.&nbsp; It doesn’t mean we are going to reach it --- but really, on today’s low, it was only 80 dollars away.&nbsp; Thus odds do favor that gold will most likely touch that long term line near 1000.&nbsp; That’s the odds…………but not the ABSOLUTE.&nbsp; In summary, today’s 50 dollar purge is long term technical people throwing in the towel.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolMon20July2015.gif" title="Gold long term monthly chart since 2001 with channel lines" alt="Gold long term monthly chart since 2001 with channel lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">On the very short term look for gold resistance at 1115-1120 on Tuesday and then 1128-1133 and 1140-1146.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">If gold can hold 1088-1090 on Tuesday it may be an indication that a short term bounce will develop.<br>
&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHrly20Jul2015.gif" title="Gold hourly price chart" alt="Gold hourly price chart" width="689" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Cycles</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Here’s what we said on the last update………..</font></p>
<p><em><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">At this point in time the odds favor that gold is going to begin to head lower.&nbsp;&nbsp; We may see a push higher into the end of the week, but its best to remain bearish overall.&nbsp;</font></em></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">We did not get any push whatsoever but we did get what the odds favored…lower and the call to remain bearish played out.&nbsp; Even though futures dropped all the way to 1080 the spot low was 1087.&nbsp; So today was certainly a candidate for a flush out day.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">But what about now?</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Gold should have made a low today and potentially for July.&nbsp; While the trend is still down, the high volume and the fact that the 1080 was a full 50% retracement of the entire bull market from 1999 to 2011, gives a high odds that gold should bounce back to the 1120-1145 area.&nbsp; But it certainly doesn’t eliminate a move even lower.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; So for now a bounce, but make no mistake----- if we don’t hold 1088-1090 (plus or minus a few bucks) it will remain vulnerable for lower again ---- this time towards the 1000 area.<br>
&nbsp;<br>
The bottom line, is right now is too early to call the bear market low,&nbsp; but there are a lot of things to consider.&nbsp; First off, Silver is holding above its prior low and today’s volume was just as high a when the December low took place as well as the November low. Even then gold struggled but it did eventually manage to provide the one and only rally over the last year from Nov to Jan 2015. However, as you can see above, gold gave it all back.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Of even greater importance is the 1080 low is a full 50% retracement of the entire bull market from 1999 to 2011.&nbsp; That is usually a significant support point in markets and while we cannot rule out lower because of the extreme weakness, odds do favor that gold should provide some type of support with at least a bounce back potential near this 1080 area.&nbsp; The chart on the medium term section of this report shows the 50% retrace level.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCyc20Jul2015.gif" title="gold cycles" alt="gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">HUI</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
Medium Term – Bearish<br>
Medium Term Moving averages – 150.78 – 152.93<br>
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 147.63 – 150.59</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
The last update said that the long term crash line from 2008 had been broken (below 140) and the chart shows today’s tremendous drop in gold stocks was the acceleration of long term selling and margin calls.&nbsp; We are now at 13 year lows.&nbsp; Where does it all end?</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Well, the next support is that yellow line just under 100.&nbsp; Gold stocks have now entered the fifth and final wave down.&nbsp; Either the yellow line holds or a COMPLETE retracement back to where the bull market started in 2001 is going to occur.&nbsp; As you know our indicators have been in bearish mode a long time. Can you imagine the balls the Gold GURU’s have by not once saying things were bearish and having called “the low” about 20 times.&nbsp; One look at the chart says it all.&nbsp; Everyone who listened to the “guru’s” have been wiped out.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/HuiMon20July2015Crashbelow2008.gif" title="HUI gold stock index long term chart" alt="HUI gold stock index long term chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Gold Medium Term</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429<br>
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1200.83 – 1205.22<br>
<br>
Our forecast has been that the chop in gold we were seeing was the precursor to gold breaking towards 1050-1100 and today we arrived right in the middle at 1080.<br>
<br>
Like the gold stocks, gold is decisively in its fifth and final wave.&nbsp; As you can see we are reaching the white support line on the long term chart and the 50% retracement.&nbsp; This is the first area where gold could bottom but we still feel that the odds are the TRIPLE red channel lines will be tested before its over.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
The BULL/BEAR line is at 1172-1182 area.&nbsp; We need a weekly and monthly close above those levels in order for the medium term trend to stabilize.<br>
<br>
The bottom line to gold is that DUAL YELLOW downtrend line has kept the action in check on the upside for quite a while.&nbsp; As long as price is below that line, the bear market in gold is still in play.&nbsp; While this white line on the chart below can provide a bounce, gold most likely has more downside into the red lines.&nbsp; What is the MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN gold can achieve?&nbsp; The 680-720 level.&nbsp; What is the ideal area then?&nbsp; The 850-1050 level between Oct 2015 and June 2016.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolMon50_FullRetracement20Jul2015.gif" title="Gold monthly chart full 50% retracement of bull market" alt="Gold monthly chart full 50% retracement of bull market" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong><br>
Moving Average Trend ~ 111.89 – 112.53 –bearish</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">We have been saying if the 110 area doesn’t hold look for GLD to test 105.&nbsp; We got there today.&nbsp; As you can see on the very long term chart, this is the last support until around the 98 area. &nbsp;Resistance is now 108-110 short term.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GldMon20Jul2015.gif" title="Gold ETF GLD monthly chart" alt="Gold ETF GLD monthly chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">GDX</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
Intermediate term Trend&nbsp;&nbsp; 17.50 – 17.87 ~ Bearish<br>
Resistance is at 20.08 – 20.22</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it all signs are bearish.<br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GdxMon20Jul2015.gif" title="GDX monthly price chart" alt="GDX monthly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br></font><strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">What next ?</font></strong><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
All trends in gold remain down and it is not out of the question to have a couple more days like today.&nbsp; More likely is gold will get some type of bounce but its too early to call a bottom.&nbsp; As we mentioned earlier, Silver did not make a new low, and the gold volume was huge and prices in this gold bear market reached the 50% retrace level.&nbsp; That’s often where bear markets find support.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">However gold is not your ordinary market so we can’t hang a hot on this just yet.&nbsp; The only people proclaiming a low here are the ones who have always been bullish and sell gold for a living.&nbsp; Isn’t it fascinating that the gold market made those who SELL gold the Guru’s.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><strong>WHY?</strong></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Because once they jumped on the bandwagon in the early 2000’s they have remained bullish thru all of this for the simple reason that they sell gold for a living.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">Do yourself a favor.&nbsp; STOP READING WEBSITES where people sell gold for a living and stop reading websites that make you feel better by having the same bullish opine that you have.&nbsp; Those people are not guru’s ------ they are even lower than a used car salesman.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br>
<strong>Bottom Line</strong><br>
June often is a turning point but it can extend into July.&nbsp; We have seen divergence in other markets but gold has yet to show any action that warrants upside.&nbsp;&nbsp; Indeed, a closing below 1140 this week will keep the pressure on gold.<br>
<br>
It’s best to remain bearish overall but a bounce of some type can very well develop here.<br>
We are getting pretty close to the end as metals and metal stocks are all in their 5<sup>th</sup> and final wave down of this bear market.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 13px;" face="Verdana, sans-serif">All trends remain down in gold,&nbsp; but a short term bounce here would not be a surprise.</font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 16px;" face="'Times New Roman', serif">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3442800
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3442800Bill DowneyThu, 16 Jul 2015 12:18:14 GMTGold close to breaking down towards 1100<p>&nbsp;<strong>Daily Report ~ July 15 2015<br>
Trend<br>
Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br>
<strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> - Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.<br>
<strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.<br>
<strong>Short Term ~Bearish</strong>– market remains in trouble for the downside</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1155-1162&nbsp; 2nd tier 1172-1180<br>
Support 1140-1145 2nd tier 1120-1130</p>
<p>The monthly chart below shows the 2005 trendline that crosses under the 2008 crash low is now violated and that means the potential for gold to fall is increasing.&nbsp; There are various supports on the shorter term timeframes but on this long term timeframe, the 1000 area is the next major support.&nbsp; Unless we see an abrupt turnaround this week, the odds favor the potential for gold to sell off further.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="689" height="441" title="Gold Monthly price chart" alt="Gold Monthly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolMon16Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p>On a shorter term timeframe if we take out 1140 then the 1120 area becomes the likely first target.&nbsp; Additional support near 1100 on a short term basis.&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="688" height="445" title="GOld short term price chart" alt="GOld short term price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gol8Hr16Jul2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong><br>
We will present two charts today.&nbsp; The first chart below has the last blue cycle very weak and now we approach the next red cycle turn due July 16th (plus or minus 72 hours) it is possible that we have already begun the red cycle and it if that is the case then the potential for a hard sell off is high.&nbsp; Since the next cycle window can last as long as until the 19th, it is not out of the question for gold to try and mount a rally today and tomorrow.&nbsp; But like we said, it is also possible that the next red cycle down is underway.&nbsp; We won’t know for sure until early next week.&nbsp;&nbsp; Lets go to the 2nd chart.</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="gold cycles" alt="gold cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCyc16Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
The chart below shows an inversion where the rotation would flip from the lows at the blue cycle to the lows at the red cycle.&nbsp; We give this only a 25% odds that it is occurring but if it is, it means that gold could rally out of this scenario into the end of the month.&nbsp; However, it would further complicate gold as red cycle lows are not trustable and usually means a bear trend overall.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="gold cycle" alt="gold cycle" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCycInv16Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
In summary, gold remains trapped in the same wedge and price confusion that has been in play since the week of March 21st.&nbsp; While an upside breakout is possible, the odds are in favor that gold is going to make another new low this year and the final bottom should occur between Oct 2015 and June 2016.&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
At this point in time the odds favor that gold is going to begin to head lower.&nbsp;&nbsp; We may see a push higher into the end of the week, but its best to remain bearish overall.</p>
<p><br>
<strong>HUI</strong><br>
Medium Term – Bearish<br>
Medium Term Moving averages – 150.78 – 152.93<br>
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 147.63 – 150.59</p>
<p><br>
The bottom line analysis at the moment is gold stocks are bearish on all time frames.&nbsp; We need to see action back over the moving averages in an impulsive manner to change the outlook.&nbsp; Even the 2008 crash low trendline at the bottom of the chart has given way and both attempts at a rally during June was met with resistance at the moving averages.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
Odds are high for a rally in gold stocks due to begin during July/August but we must recapture that line at 140 and move above the averages in order for gold stocks to show that it is making an attempt at reversing. We must see some bullishness before just jumping in because all attempts have failed and we are basically making 10 year lows in gold stocks.&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
<img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Hui15Jul2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p><br>
<strong>Gold Medium Term</strong><br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429<br>
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1200.83 – 1205.22<br>
<br>
The big question is gold getting ready to break to the 1050-1100 area?&nbsp; We think the answer is yes but we are not sure on the time specifics. This chop that gold has been in is a prep for that action to take place.<br>
<br>
If gold breaks lower here, odds would favor we’re heading towards 1050-1100 and probably where the major long term red lines reside.&nbsp; However, a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 would begin to favor a rally in July/August.<br>
<br>
The BULL/BEAR line is at 1172-1182 area.&nbsp; Any weekly close below 1158-1163 favors lower that the area has become resistance for gold and has to favor lower prices. On the upside we need a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 to get some action to the upside going.<br>
<br>
The bottom line to gold is that DUAL YELLOW downtrend line has kept the action in check on the upside for quite a while.&nbsp; As long as price is below that line, the bear market in gold is still in play.<br>
<br>
<img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XgldWkly15Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
GOLD ETF GLD<br>
Moving Average Trend ~ 111.89 – 112.53 – Neutral/bearish</p>
<p>Resistance is 113-115 and support at 108-110 and that’s the range we keep trading in.&nbsp; Those two white lines are the last real support until 98-105.&nbsp; The bottom line is unless gold turns here, look for the 105 area to tested in GLD.</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld16Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>GDX</strong><br>
Intermediate term Trend&nbsp;&nbsp; 17.50 – 17.87 ~ Bearish<br>
Resistance is at 20.08 – 20.22<br>
GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it all signs are bearish.<br>
&nbsp;<br>
<img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gdx15Jul2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;<br>
<br>
<strong>What next ?</strong><br>
All trends in gold remain down.&nbsp; Even the short term leaves a lot to be desired.&nbsp; From that perspective gold needs to re- capture 1172-1182 and make is support.&nbsp; Until then the odds have the downside in play.<br>
<br>
Bottom Line<br>
June often is a turning point but it can extend into July.&nbsp; We have seen divergence in other markets but gold has yet to show any action that warrants upside.&nbsp;&nbsp; Indeed, a closing below 1140 this week will keep the pressure on gold.<br>
<br>
It’s best to favor lower at the moment and the potential for gold to move to 1100-1120 soon is most likely in play.&nbsp;&nbsp; The only other potential and it’s only at 25% odds, is that the short term gold cycle inverts.&nbsp;&nbsp; Thus its not something we should bet on, at least not until some type of bottoming action is seen in gold.<br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3435748
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3435748Bill DowneyTue, 14 Jul 2015 14:19:48 GMTGold remains under pressure on all fronts at the moment<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Daily Report ~ July 14 2015</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Trend</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong>&nbsp;- Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Short Term ~Bearish</strong>– caught in a sideways market</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Initial Resistance 1167-1179 &nbsp;2nd tier 1188-1198</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Support 1140-1150 2nd tier 1120-1130</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Nothing much has yet changed in gold. &nbsp;We still see that 1172 (1167-1177) is the main resistance to overcome on a short term basis. &nbsp;We had targeted 1140-1150 as support and so far that has held since the July 7th low at 1145. &nbsp;That is still support but a close below 1140 should be enough to send gold towards the 1050-1100 area. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHrly14Jul2015.gif" title="Gold hourly price chart" alt="Gold hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Therefore we can quantify the short term and really all trends until gold retakes 1172-1182 and makes it support. &nbsp; A close above 1187-1194 will be required to give some semblance of a short term bottom.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The one other thing to keep in mind is on a seasonal basis, &nbsp;gold often makes its lows between June 21st and early August. &nbsp;An average of those lows gives a mid July point. &nbsp;Because gold is in a downtrend on all timeframes, a seasonal turn cannot be the only basis for a trade to try and take advantage of an upside move.&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">For now the bottom line on a short term basis is gold must close above the 1172-1182 (somewhere above 1187-1194). &nbsp;That 1172-1182 area was YEARLY support and should be considered an important price point. For now, it should be considered resistance until we get back above it.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The last blue cycle has been very weak and now we approach the next red cycle turn due July 16th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp; That means that if gold rallies into the end of this week, it has the potential to turn back down into the end of the month.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">As you can see, gold is trapped in a wedge between the higher and lower channel lines and we will need a price break out of this area before a more sustained move can develop. The bottom line on the chart is really the key. &nbsp; If this area gives way and we take out 1130, odds will be high gold will be heading towards 1000-1100.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCyc14Jul2015.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">In summary, gold remains trapped in the same wedge and price confusion that has been in play since the week of March 21st. &nbsp;While an upside breakout is possible, the odds are in favor that gold is going to make another new low this year and the final bottom should occur between Oct 2015 and June 2016. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">At this point in time the odds favor that gold is going to begin to head lower. &nbsp; We may see a push higher into the end of the week, but its best to remain bearish overall.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>HUI</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Medium Term – Bearish</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Medium Term Moving averages – 150.78 – 152.93</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Intermediate Term Moving averages – 149.89 - 152.22<br>
<br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">On the downside we pointed out we could move lower to the other support line at around 140 and it’s the last real support before new lows that would extend back 10 years.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The bottom line analysis at the moment is gold stocks are bearish on all time frames. &nbsp;We need to see action back over the moving averages in an impulsive manner to change the outlook. &nbsp;Gold stocks usually bottom during July/August and rally from mid August to mid October. &nbsp;But that’s during a bull leg. &nbsp;Still, we should see some type of action of that manner once a low is established. Support is that 140 area at the white trend line. &nbsp;A move above 153 would suggest gold stocks can set up for a short to intermediate term rally. &nbsp;Odds are high for a rally in gold stocks due to begin during July/August. &nbsp;If we move to 140 and the white line odds will be high for at least a short term rally and perhaps during the summer. &nbsp;But we must see some bullishness before just jumping in. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/HUI4hr13Jul2015.gif" title="Hui gold stock index price chart" alt="Hui gold stock index price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1200.83 – 1205.22</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The big question is gold getting ready to break to the 1050-1100 area? &nbsp;We think the answer is yes but we are not sure on the time specifics. This chop that gold has been in is a prep for that action to take place.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">If gold breaks lower here, odds would favor we’re heading towards 1050-1100 and probably where the major long term red lines reside. &nbsp;However, a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 would begin to favor a rally in July/August.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The BULL/BEAR line is at 1172-1182 area. &nbsp;Any weekly close below 1158-1163 favors lower that the area has become resistance for gold and has to favor lower prices. On the upside we need a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 to get some action to the upside going.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The bottom line to gold is that DUAL YELLOW downtrend line has kept the action in check on the upside for quite a while. &nbsp;As long as price is below that line, &nbsp;the bear market in gold is still in play.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XGLDwkly13Jul2015.gif" title="Gold weekly price chart" alt="Gold weekly price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong><br></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Moving Average Trend ~ 112.46– 112.84 – Neutral/bearish</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">We rarely display the GLD long term chart but today’s update has it in all its (non) glory.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Resistance is 113-115 and support at 108-110 and that’s the range we keep trading in. &nbsp;Those two white lines are the last real support is 98-105 and near the 84 area (not on this chart)</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">When we talk about 98-105 and even 84 the majority will scoff at its likely hood. &nbsp;But they are the same group that has been telling us gold is about to make its low and rally to 10000 for the last three years. &nbsp; Most are in the business of selling physical gold. I think you can figure out the rest. &nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GLD4hr13Jul2015.gif" title="Gold ETF GLD price chart" alt="Gold ETF GLD price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>GDX</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Intermediate term Trend &nbsp; 17.78 - 18.08 ~ Bearish</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">Resistance is at 20.08 – 20.22</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">The GDX long term chart is also displayed today. &nbsp; As you can see, we have broken the long term green channel line. &nbsp;Can price move lower than that ? &nbsp; Yes, it can. &nbsp;Because GDX is not a very old ETF there are no long term charts that exist. &nbsp;The best representation is the HUI. &nbsp; While this can very well be "the LOW" or near it, there is nothing impossible in price in commodity markets. &nbsp;We need to get back above the moving averages on the short term for relief. &nbsp;Watch that green channel line. &nbsp;If we can’t get above that, then expect lower prices.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GDX4hr13Jul2015.gif" title="Gold stock ETF GDX price chart" alt="Gold stock ETF GDX price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>What next ?</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">All trends in gold remain down. &nbsp;Even the short term leaves a lot to be desired. &nbsp;From that perspective gold needs to re- capture 1172-1182 and make is support. &nbsp;Until then the odds have the downside in play.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><br></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana"><strong>Bottom Line</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana">June often is a turning point but it can extend into July. &nbsp;We have seen divergence in other markets but gold has yet to show any action that warrants upside. &nbsp; Indeed, a continued closing below 1172 this week will keep the pressure on gold.</font></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3432903
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3432903Bill DowneyThu, 09 Jul 2015 16:08:42 GMTGold remains in a downtrend on all timeframes<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gold Report ~ July 9 2015<br>
Trend<br>
Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br>
<strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> - Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.<br>
<strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.<br>
<strong>Short Term ~Bearish</strong>– caught in a sideways market</p>
<p><br>
Initial Resistance 1172-1182&nbsp; 2nd tier 1187-1192<br>
Support 1140-1150 2nd tier 1120-1130</p>
<p>Gold Short Term</p>
<p>A look at the very short term hourly chart had gold making a low on July 2nd and turning back up.&nbsp; This was in line with expected short term cycles but the yearly support point we have been using for quite a while (1172-1182) has now become 1st overhead resistance.&nbsp; Indeed, after two tries at clearing 1172 failed, another round of market weakness sent gold to a lower price point on July 7th reaching just a tad under 1150.&nbsp; That is in line with current support 1140-1150, but this 1140-1150 area is not some major support point but rather just short term.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold hourly price chart" alt="Gold hourly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHrly9July2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;<br>
Therefore we can quantify the short term and really all trends until gold retakes 1172-1182 and makes it support.&nbsp;&nbsp; A close above 1187-1194 will be required to give some semblance of a short term bottom.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
The one other thing to keep in mind is on a seasonal basis,&nbsp; gold often makes its lows between June 21st and early August.&nbsp; An average of those lows gives a mid July point.&nbsp; Because gold is in a downtrend on all timeframes, a seasonal turn cannot be the only basis for a trade to try and take advantage of an upside move.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
For now the bottom line on a short term basis is gold must close above the 1172-1182 (somewhere above 1187-1194).&nbsp; That 1172-1182 area was YEARLY support and should be considered an important price point. For now, it should be considered resistance until we get back above it.<br>
&nbsp;<br>
Cycles<br>
<br>
The last cycle was July 1st (plus or minus 72 hours) and gold did make a turn (see above chart) on July 2nd.&nbsp; That turn had good odds of putting in a bottom and moving higher to mid month but the persistent weakness in gold and the double failure for gold to overcome 1172 had gold move lower to the 1150 area.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>
<br>
As you can see, gold is trapped in a wedge between the higher and lower channel lines and we will need a price break out of this area before a more sustained move can develop. I had anticipated gold would trade up to the downtrend line in conjunction with the 50 day (blue line) near 1187 and/or the 200 day (red line) near 1200.&nbsp; While it has not yet occurred it is not out of the question for gold to rally to this area.&nbsp; The bottom line on the chart is really the key.&nbsp;&nbsp; If this area gives way and we take out 1130, odds will be high gold will be heading towards 950-1050.<br></p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold cycle" alt="Gold cycle" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/golCyc9Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
<br>
In summary, gold remains trapped in the same wedge and price confusion that has been in play since the week of March 21st.&nbsp; While an upside breakout is possible, the odds are in favor that gold is going to make another new low this year and the final bottom should occur between Oct 2015 and June 2016.&nbsp; The next short term cycle is due July 16th (plus or minus 72 hours).&nbsp; If we break below 1147, it is favored to make the July low.&nbsp;&nbsp; Otherwise, it’s still possible for gold to move higher and keep the red cycle high/blue cycle low we have on the chart intact.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; That rotation would be much better than the red cycle becoming the low points and the blue cycle the high points because that rotation will favor continued weakness in gold.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p>HUI<br>
Medium Term – Bearish<br>
Medium Term Moving averages – 173.06 - 179.84<br>
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 154.96-157.07</p>
<p>On the downside we pointed out we could move lower to the other support line at around 140 and it’s the last real support before new lows that would extend back 10 years.&nbsp; As you can see on the long term chart, we are/have arrived at that point.<br>
The bottom line analysis at the moment is gold stocks are bearish on all time frames.&nbsp; We need to see action back over the moving averages in an impulsive manner to change the outlook.&nbsp; Gold stocks usually bottom during July/August and rally from mid August to mid October.&nbsp; But that’s during a bull leg.&nbsp; Still, we should see some type of action of that manner once a low is established. Support is that 140 area at the white trend line.&nbsp; A move above 158 would suggest gold stocks can set up for a short to intermediate term rally.&nbsp; Odds are high for a rally in gold stocks due to begin during July/August.&nbsp; If we move to 140 and the white line odds will be high for at least a short term rally and perhaps during the summer.&nbsp; But we must see some bullishness before just jumping in.&nbsp; As we can see on the longer term chart below, we need to hold at around 140.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Hui Gold stock index long term Chart" alt="Hui Gold stock index long term Chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Hui9Jul2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<br>
Gold Medium Term<br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429<br>
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1201.65 – 1209.26<br></p>
<p>The big question is gold getting ready to break to the 1050-1100 area?&nbsp; We think the answer is yes but we are not sure on the time specifics. This chop that gold has been in is a prep for that action to take place.<br></p>
<p>IF gold breaks lower here, odds would favor we’re heading towards 1050-1100 and probably where the major long term red lines reside.&nbsp; However, a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 would begin to favor a rally in July/August.<br>
The BULL/BEAR line is at 1172-1182 area.&nbsp; Any weekly close below 1158-1163 favors lower that the area has become resistance for gold and has to favor lower prices. On the upside we need a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 to get some action to the upside going.<br></p>
<p>The bottom line to gold is that DUAL YELLOW downtrend line has kept the action in check on the upside for quite a while.&nbsp; As long as price is below that line,&nbsp; the bear market in gold is still in play.</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold weekly price chart" alt="Gold weekly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/xgldwkly9jul2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
GOLD ETF GLD<br>
Moving Average Trend ~ 113.28– 113.35 – Neutral/bearish<br>
<br>
We rarely display the GLD long term chart but today’s update has it in all its (non) glory.<br>
<br>
Resistance is 118-121 and support at 108-110 and that’s the range we keep trading in.&nbsp; Those two white lines are the last real support is 98-105 and near the 84 area.</p>
<p>When we talk about 98-105 and even 84&nbsp;the majority will scoff at its likely hood.&nbsp; But they are the same group that has been telling us gold is about to&nbsp;make its low and rally to 10000 for the last three years.&nbsp;&nbsp; Most are in the business&nbsp;of selling physical gold. I think you can figure out the&nbsp;rest.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3427990
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3427990Bill DowneyThu, 02 Jul 2015 13:52:06 GMTGold might be near short term bottom<p style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold;">Trend<br></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br>
<strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> - Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.<br>
<strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.<br>
<strong>Short Term ~Bearish</strong>– caught in a sideways market 1160-1225</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1172-1182&nbsp; 2nd tier 1187-1192<br>
Support 1150-1162 2nd tier 1130-1140</p>
<p><br>
<strong>Gold Short Term</strong><br>
A look at the very short term hourly chart suggest that gold may be making a short term bottom this morning.&nbsp; It looks like a flushout under 1162 occurred and now gold is back above that area.&nbsp; Overall, we need a close above 1172 and then the blue moving average must move above the green with price above both.&nbsp;&nbsp; Platinum looks to already have bottomed and there is some divergence in MACD and a few other indicators suggesting a bounce may be ready to develop.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<img width="690" height="555" title="gold hourly price chart" alt="gold hourly price chart" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolHrly2Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong><br>
The next cycle is due July 1st (plus or minus 72 hours) and odds favor gold is putting in a low this morning where another attempt higher should occur.&nbsp; As you can see, gold is trapped in a wedge between the higher and lower channel lines and we will need a price break out of this area before a more sustained move can develop.&nbsp; In summary, odds are high that gold begins a recovery attempt into mid July.<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="gold cycles" alt="gold cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/GolCyc2Jul2015.gif" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p><br>
<strong>HUI</strong><br>
Medium Term – Bearish<br>
Medium Term Moving averages – 173.06 - 179.84<br>
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 154.96-157.07</p>
<p><br>
On the downside we can move lower to the other support line at around 140 and it’s the last real support before new lows that would extend back 10 years.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Hui2Jul2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p>The bottom line analysis at the moment is gold stocks are bearish on all time frames.&nbsp; We need to see action back over the moving averages in an impulsive manner to change the outlook.&nbsp; Gold stocks usually bottom during July/August and rally from mid August to mid October.&nbsp; But that’s during a bull leg.&nbsp; Still, we should see some type of action of that manner once a low is established. Support is that 140 area at the white trend line.&nbsp; A move above 158 would suggest gold stocks can set up for a short to intermediate term rally.&nbsp; Odds are high for a rally in gold stocks due to begin during July/August.&nbsp; If we move to 140 and the white line odds will be high for at least a short term rally and perhaps during the summer.&nbsp; But we must see some bullishness before just jumping in.&nbsp; As we can see on the longer term chart below, we need to hold at around 140.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong><br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429<br>
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1201.65 – 1209.26</p>
<p>Look at how the 1172-1182 area has held so far this year on yearly support.&nbsp; The big question is however, is gold getting ready to break to the 1050-1100 area?&nbsp; It is certainly possible.&nbsp; If we close below 1162 and then 1140, odds will greatly increase that it will develop.&nbsp; But at the moment, the market is in its worse chop we have seen for years.</p>
<p>June is a pivotal month and we often see important price lows.&nbsp; Just look at the last three years.&nbsp; IF gold breaks lower here, odds would favor we’re heading towards 1050-1100.&nbsp; However, a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 would begin to favor a rally into July/August (which in itself is often a bearish move).</p>
<p>If there is one PLACE to look for the BULL/BEAR line it’s this 1172-1182 area.&nbsp; As long as price remains above that level, then an upside move can still take place.&nbsp; Any weekly close below 1158-1163 favors lower. On the upside we need a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 to get some action to the upside going.</p>
<p>We stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance.</p>
<p>The one thing to note here is the medium term moving averages are at 1201-1209 and that is the area price resides in as we enter the final week of June. A move above the dual yellow lines would favor a rally to either 1300-1322 and as far as the triple green channel lines.&nbsp; That is where a summer rally would most likely fail and lead to one final bottom between October 2015 and June 2016.<br>
&nbsp;<br>
&nbsp;<img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/XgldWkly2Jul2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong><br>
Moving Average Trend ~ 113.28– 113.35 – Neutral/bearish</p>
<p>GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement.&nbsp;&nbsp; Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient.</p>
<p>Resistance is 118-121 and support at 108-110 and that’s the range we keep trading in.&nbsp; Those two white lines are the last real support (not seen on the chart below) is 98-105 and near the 84 area.<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gld2Jul2015.gif" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong><br>
Intermediate term Trend&nbsp;&nbsp; 18.43 – 18.66 ~ Bearish<br>
Resistance is at 20.08 – 20.22</p>
<p>GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.<br>
Whenever that occurs for this length of time, its best to take the moving averages with a grain of salt.</p>
<p>A retest of the green line---which is basically the 2008 crash low line can’t be eliminated.<br>
&nbsp;</p>
<p><img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/July/Daily/Gdx2Jul2015.gif" border="0"><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<strong>What next ?</strong><br>
We have arrived at the mid point of the year. Interesting that COMEX in NY closed at 1172.<br>
Things are very quiet and not moving anywhere.&nbsp; It will remain so probably until after the July 4th holiday.<br>
Odds favor gold makes a short term low in the next day or so.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong><br>
June often is a turning point but it can extend into July.&nbsp; Evidence that gold should be bottoming short term is showing up as platinum and palladium seem to be making their lows as well.</p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3416730
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3416730Bill DowneyMon, 22 Jun 2015 23:49:03 GMTGold continues in a trading range bound price pattern<p><strong>Gold Daily Report ~ June 23 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> &nbsp;Need a monthly close above 1255 and 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need close above 1222-1232 for higher TREND.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Neutral/Bearish</strong> – caught in a sideways market 1160-1225</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1192-1198 &nbsp;2nd tier 1202-1209</p>
<p>Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1164</p>
<p>Our last update listed support at 1162-1172 and the low was 1182. &nbsp;Resistance was listed at 1205-1212 and the high was 1201.</p>
<p>One the upside, until we take out 1225 and 1255 we remain in a trade range.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Gold price drops below $1,200, focus on Greece</p>
<p>New York (Jun 22) Gold was weaker Monday on Greece optimism. &nbsp;Positive talks over the weekend sparked a wave of rising optimism regarding the EU-Greece debt renegotiation. However, the Eurogroup meeting held this afternoon yield nothing but the usual wishes of an eventual favorable outcome.</p>
<p>The EU Leaders Summit is due later, and despite EU officials already argued against clinching a deal tonight, it seems the optimism of market participants remain intact, hurting the demand for the safe haven metal.</p>
<p>Gold short term significant levels</p>
<p>As of writing Gold is down to $1,185. A drop below $1,171.90 (low Jun.15) would open the door to $1,162.10 (low Jun.5). On the upside, the immediate resistance lines up at $1,209.00 (high May 25) followed by $1,215.30 (high May 22) and then $1,219.40 (high May 13).</p>
<p>On the medium term, a gold low at the end of June/early July could produce a rally attempt. &nbsp;This would be in line with the medium term cycle due on June 23rd – July 1st (plus or minus 2 weeks). &nbsp;The short term cycle is due July 1st (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;</p>
<p>Overall odds still favor one final low between Sept 2015 – June 2016. However, until we get a weekly close below 1162, a potential rally can develop in July/August first.</p>
<p><strong>US Dollar Ready to Turn to Haven or Feed on FOMC Rate View</strong></p>
<p>By John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist</p>
<p>Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral</p>
<p>The FOMC’s own rate forecasts have projected 50 bps worth of hikes this year.</p>
<p>USDollar has enjoyed a positive correlation to FX VIX, but its haven appeal is not fully appreciated.</p>
<p>While there may be a lot of volatility for the Dollar moving forward, the medium-term fundamentals carry a positive slant whether general market conditions improve or deteriorate. If the US and global economies move to a more stable and productive state, there is little to throw the Fed off its hawkish bearing for monetary policy – a view that the market still seems to be discounting. If the clouds darken and the financial system starts to seize under the threat of a China-led speculative crush or a Greece-borne European crisis, the Dollar stands ready to accept haven flows. This is a unique position to be in and should keep traders focused.</p>
<p>If the ‘status quo’ of market complacency continues through the forthcoming weeks, the general FX focus is likely to shift back to the theme that has commanded the market for the past year – relative interest rate expectations. Considerable advantage has been conferred to the Greenback for the unique hawkish bearing of the Federal Reserve, but the premium of being a first-mover towards higher yields is not likely fully priced in.</p>
<p>In the short-term, the market is still pricing a significantly divergent view of the liftoff date for the first rate hike from what the central bank itself has projected. Further out, the pace of subsequent tightening (the curve) diverges even further. In the FOMC meeting this past week – which included updated forecasts and press conference – we found a few elements that spoke to the dovish. In particular, the fact that the vote to hold policy was unanimous suggests the most hawkish aren’t willing to start the ball rolling on the more difficult conversations at subsequent meetings.</p>
<p>Yet, a uniform wait-and-see vote doesn’t offset the clearly hawkish views laid out in the forecasts. In the interest rate projections, the Committee is projected two, 25 basis point rate hikes before the end of the year. That is a significant contrast to Fed Fund futures which show the market is pricing in the first move out in January 2016. Given that there are only four more meetings this year and the Fed is unlikely to move back-to-back, the first hike would likely come latest in September if their views hold. Beyond that first move, the curve maintains a hearty premium to the market’s own view through 2016 and 2017.</p>
<p>In the week ahead, the rate forecast will be messaged by the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge: the PCE deflator. It doesn’t need to present a dramatic reading, merely evidence that the slump in volatile components (energy and food) is rolling off.</p>
<p>Rate forecasts will be the natural theme that we return to so long as something more dramatic doesn’t present itself going forward. And really, only one theme has proven itself capable of overriding: risk trends. Risk appetite remains buoyant, but conviction is all but absent. A resolution to Greece and/or stimulus from China to halt the Shanghai’s plunge are possible. However, the true risk is deleveraging finally starting. In that open shift towards safety, the Dollar would surge. -JK</p>
<p><strong>Bond Market</strong></p>
<p>The long term green channel line from the 1981 peak is being tested again. &nbsp;With a Fibonacci 34 years complete, odds favor interest rates are going to begin to rise. &nbsp;The FED makes believe it controls long term rates but they really don’t. &nbsp;This is why they have been playing a cat and mouse game with raising rates. &nbsp;Once they see the long term trend change, they will raise rates in an effort to make the market believe it is their doing. &nbsp;Should the 10 year close above 2.8%, look for a sharp rise to 3.5% where the last long term white line resides. &nbsp;This is the real bubble today and when it goes, its not going to be pretty because the rise will not be due to economic confidence, but to a LOSS OF IT. &nbsp;Once that happens, gold should begin its rise again within 6 months of the new trend. &nbsp;But before it does, it will most likely have one final low.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/TnxMon22Jun2015.gif" title="10 Year T-Notes long term price chart 34 years" alt="10 Year T-Notes long term price chart 34 years" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short Term</strong></p>
<p>The US jobs report released on Friday was strong across the board and that most likely added to the gold pressure felt on Monday as participants keep going back and forth on whether a rate rise is in the cards for gold.</p>
<p>On Tuesday resistance is 1192-1198 and the 1202-1209 area and then 1218-1228 weekly. &nbsp;Look for support in the 1172-1182 area on Tuesday and then 1158-1164.</p>
<p>A daily CLOSE BELOW 1162 will ADD A LOT OF WEIGHT OF BEARISH ACTION and the potential to move to new bear market lows in gold will increase substantially. &nbsp;Until then we remain in a trade range.</p>
<p>If we can hold the 1177 area, it’s possible to bounce back to 1200 this week. &nbsp;But overall, until we close above 1208, its best to favor lower, especially with the short term cycle pointing down to the end of the month.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/Gol8Hr22Jun2015.gif" title="Gold since the 2015 high price chart" alt="Gold since the 2015 high price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Cycles</strong></p>
<p>The next cycle is due July 1st(plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;If the next short term cycle underway now plays out, then we should move lower to month end. &nbsp;Keep in mind during sideways markets like this, odds of a cycle inversion are always much greater.</p>
<p>We held 1162-1172 on a closing basis, and failed to make a new low and thus we remain trapped in a holding pattern of sideways action. &nbsp;Any close below 1162 will favor lower prices.</p>
<p>It’s not hard to see a head and shoulder (bearish pattern) and if we lose the 1140 area gold will probably be heading towards 1050 and before it’s all said and done in 2015 it will most likely trade under 1000 (even if only for a bit). &nbsp;In summary, everything remains sideways at the moment as it has for the last 13 weeks.</p>
<p>So far this week with the action on Monday, it looks like the red cycle is pointing lower to month end.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/GolCyc22Jun2015.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bearish</p>
<p>Medium Term Moving averages – 173.06 - 179.84</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Moving averages – 160-162</p>
<p>Wage talks between South African bullion producers and unions started on Monday, with both sides far apart, setting the stage for protracted wrangling in the ailing industry.</p>
<p>The talks, which involve AngloGold Ashanti, Sibanye Gold Harmony Gold and two smaller producers, come at a time when the sector is grappling with depressed prices, falling production and rising costs.</p>
<p>“We need to place the viability and sustainability of our industry and the jobs it provides at the centre of our discussions,” Harmony chief executive Graham Briggs said.</p>
<p>In labor’s corner stand four unions representing 94,000 miners. The two biggest, which are arch rivals, have submitted wage increase demands ranging from 80 percent to over 100 percent for the lowest-paid workers.</p>
<p>Solidarity, a smaller union representing high-skilled workers, said it was seeking a 12 percent raise for its members, for the retirement age of 60 to move to 63 and for companies to increase their contribution to medical insurance to 60 percent.</p>
<p>Investor jitters about the talks were underscored on Monday as Johannesburg’s Gold Mining Index dropped almost 5 percent. Bullion’s spot price also fell, slipping back below $1,200 an ounce, a critical level seen key to maintaining the profits of many marginal mines.</p>
<p>In a departure from past practice, the talks are beginning with neutral chairpersons who will act as facilitators.</p>
<p>Another departure is an industry proposal to offer labor an “economic and social compact” or a welfare package which it says is needed to keep the shafts profitable while providing for the welfare of miners.</p>
<p>The Chamber of Mines said last week this would include proposals to share the gains of a rising gold price with workers while also sharing the pain of price declines. Proposals on housing, retirement benefits and employee debt will be included.</p>
<p>But union leaders have publicly poured water on the initiative, saying they only want to talk money.</p>
<p>The first round of talks will be held until Wednesday and will see the different parties presenting their positions. Three more days have been scheduled for next week.</p>
<p>David Sipunzi, newly elected head of the National Union of Mineworkers, the biggest gold union representing over 50 percent of the sector’s miners, defended demands for wage hikes of 80 percent on Sunday, saying miners were still being paid “apartheid wages.”</p>
<p>Labor militancy has been on the rise, spurred by perceptions that, two decades after apartheid’s demise, wages remain too low.</p>
<p>But South Africa’s gold industry is in trouble. According to the Chamber of Mines, costs between 2008 and 2014 rose on average by over 20 percent per year. Production over the past decade has declined by almost 8 percent annually.</p>
<p>Price Chart</p>
<p>HUI price remains BEARISH below the medium term moving averages (173-179) and the intermediate averages at 160-162. That is where current resistance resides on the upside. &nbsp;On the downside as long as we are below the white channel line in the 160-162 area we can move lower to the other support line at around 140 and it’s the last real support before new lows that would extend back 10 years.</p>
<p>The bottom line analysis at the moment is gold stocks are bearish on all time frames at the moment. &nbsp;We need to see action back over the moving averages in an impulsive manner to change the outlook. &nbsp;Gold stocks usually bottom during July/August and rally from mid August to mid October. &nbsp;But that’s during a bull leg. &nbsp;Still, we should see some type of action of that manner once a low is established.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/Hui22Jun2015.gif" title="HUI gold stock index price chart" alt="HUI gold stock index price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1201.65 – 1209.22</p>
<p>However June is a pivotal month and we often see important price lows. &nbsp;Just look at the last three years. &nbsp;IF gold breaks lower here, odds would favor we’re heading towards 1050-1100. &nbsp;However, a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 would begin to favor a rally into July/August (which in itself is often a bearish move). &nbsp;</p>
<p>If there is one PLACE to look for the BULL/BEAR line it’s this 1172-1192 area. &nbsp;As long as price remains above that level, then an upside move can still take place. &nbsp;Any weekly close below 1158-1163 favors lower. On the upside we need a weekly close above 1225 and then 1255 to get some action to the upside going.&nbsp;</p>
<p>We stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The one thing to note here is the medium term moving averages are at 1201-1209 and that is the area price resides in as we enter the final week of June.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/XgldWkly22Jun2015.gif" title="Gold weekly price chart" alt="Gold weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 113.64– 113.65 – Neutral</p>
<p>GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. &nbsp; Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Resistance is 119-120 and support at 111-112 and that’s the range we keep trading in. &nbsp;There is another line near 109. &nbsp; Longer term support not seen on the chart below is 98-105 and near the 84 area.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/Gdx22Jun2015.gif" title="Gold ETF GLD price chart" alt="Gold ETF GLD price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend &nbsp; 19.03 – 19.18 ~ Bearish</p>
<p>Resistance is at 20.08 – 20.22</p>
<p>GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.</p>
<p>Whenever that occurs for this length of time, its best to take the moving averages with a grain of salt.</p>
<p>A retest of the green line---which is basically the 2008 crash low line can’t be eliminated.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/June/Daily/Gdx22Jun2015.gif" title="GDX gold stock ETF price chart" alt="GDX gold stock ETF price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>It looks like the short term bearish red cycle is in play with Monday’s drawdown. &nbsp;The cycle is not due to bottom until month end. &nbsp;Its possible that if 1177 holds on Tuesday we could get a bounce back to 1200 as gold retains its choppy pattern.</p>
<p>Indeed, its “Chop around the clock” as we remain in massive congestion.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>June often is a turning point but it can extend into July. &nbsp;As long as we remain above 1162, there is still a potential for gold to mount a rally.</p>
<p>While odds continue to favor this range to end, it has become a wait game.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3399904
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3399904Bill DowneyFri, 29 May 2015 17:38:23 GMTGold at the up and downtrend lines for 2015<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="font-family: Verdana;">De-Dollarization Du Jour: Russia Backs BRICS Alternative To SWIFT</strong><br></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Russia is moving to undercut a critical financial communications link by creating an alternative system backed by the world's rising EM powerhouses who are set to officially launch their own development bank when they convene in July. At the same time, Moscow will consider cementing its economic ties with regional allies via the establishment of a currency bloc.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>China Deploys Artillery on "Sand Castles" In South China Sea</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">"U.S. surveillance imagery shows China has positioned weaponry on one of the artificial islands it is developing in the South China Sea," WSJ reports. US Defense Secretary says the US will "fly, sail, and operate" wherever it wants.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Gold has been doing absolutely nothing but trading sideways in an ever tightening range as it mulls over the current situation of global contraction, negative interest rates, a surging US dollar and related currency wars and conventional, financial and cyberspace wars in the making. &nbsp;An attempt to break above 1225 was initiated in May and it lasted a full 8 hours before succumbing back below 1225. &nbsp;On the other side of the trade is there has been 8 attempts to crack 1172-1182 (our yearly pivot numbers) since the last medium term cycle (Week of March 17-23) and so far price traded once at 1168 for about 10 minutes before moving back above 1172. &nbsp; And that is the bottom line. &nbsp;Any close below 1163-1167 favors the downside towards 1130-1150 and potentially lower. &nbsp; &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">On the upside current resistance (since Tuesday) is 1193-1198. &nbsp; Any close above that level and then 1204 will give a slight edge to the bulls and potentially a move back up to 1225-1244 going into mid June. &nbsp; IF we do close below 1163-1167, then favor new lows into mid June.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The next cycle turn is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) and thus the window is open for a low to develop in this timeframe. &nbsp; Usually odds are 75-80% on our cycle turns. &nbsp; THIS CURRENT TURN only has a 65% odds favored turn. &nbsp;That means if we close below 1163-1167 after June 5th, &nbsp;expect the cycle to INVERT and move lower into mid month. &nbsp; This cycle happens only 4 times per year and where the odds for an inversion is greater, but on average, this is where the biggest moves in price are most likely to occur as well. &nbsp; Most likely is not most ABSOLUTELY, as there are no guarantees in trading, there are only odds.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Look for a low to establish and &nbsp;try and move higher to mid month. &nbsp; Any close below 1163-1167 after June 5th will favor the opposite.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The one thing is silver continues to hold at the moving averages and seems to be a bit stronger than gold. &nbsp;That USUALLY (not absolutely) means that the metals could (not will) be gearing up for a rally. &nbsp; In other words, it tends to favor an upside resolve.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">UNTIL GOLD CLOSES ABOVE 1194 the trend is down. &nbsp; Above 1194, we can loosely use neutral and a close above 1205 &nbsp;should garner higher prices towards 1225-1244.</font></font>
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<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><br></font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3362190
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3362190Bill DowneyTue, 26 May 2015 16:18:57 GMTGold and Commodities taken to the wood shed on Durable Goods report<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="">From our friends at www.zerohedge.com ---Pretty much sums up Tuesday morning so far.</span><br></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Our weekend update discussed the US Dollar 1st target pullback low of 91.50 – 93.00 had most likely been reached with the 93.17 low we saw and with price at a key channel line on our longer term weekly chart.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Here is the news or the spin (you decide) of the morning from main stream media. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Dollar hits 1-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">LONDON &nbsp;| &nbsp;By Marc Jones (Reuters)</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Greece's financial crisis and signs of growing opposition to austerity in Spain sent the euro to its lowest level in a month on Tuesday, while shares and commodities took a knock as the dollar pushed higher.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Europe's main markets returned to action after a long weekend with the mood unsettled by Sunday's strong local election showing by anti-austerity parties in Spain and with the clock ticking down on Greece's bid to get aid from the euro zone to stay afloat.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Wall Street was expected to open down 0.2 percent, having also been closed on Monday and with the dollar still on the up after confident-sounding comments from Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen and solid inflation data at the end of last week.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Traders were bracing for a deluge of data ranging from manufacturing and services to house price and consumer confidence figures to gauge the recent state of the world's largest economy.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The first flurry of numbers came from goods orders, which showed a solid increase in business investment plans for a second straight month.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">"The outlook for Fed policy normalization is again gaining traction and certainly with Greek risk there is nothing that would dampen this trend," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX strategy at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">"There is good reason for continued dollar strength but if it goes too quickly we will see the same thing as happened in March and early April because there will be the question about what effect it will have (on the U.S. economy)."&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The dollar was hovering at an eight-year high against the yen and a one-month peak against a basket of other big currencies.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Europe's main stock markets had clawed back most of their early losses, while the euro was at $1.09 as the sell-off in southern euro zone debt markets eased despite the Greek and Spanish jitters.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The earlier flight into safe-havens meant Switzerland's 10-year bond yields were back in negative territory for the first time this month, though. Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek bonds were all still in the red despite being calmer.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Separately, it emerged that deputy finance ministers would hold a teleconference on Thursday to follow up on days of Greek negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank and European Commission.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">In the currency market, the dollar's move to a one-month high against its currency basket extended a rally triggered by Friday's robust inflation data and comments from Yellen that she expected the economy to strengthen.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Her Vice Chair Stanley Fischer added in a speech in Israel on Monday that too much importance was being placed on the central bank's first rate hike, and it would take a few years to get rates back to more normal levels.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">"I think this has turned around and the dollar is back on a bullish trend," said Ian Stannard, head of European FX strategy with Morgan Stanley in London referring to the data.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">"The adjustment has now been completed and the dollar can now react to any positive news. Dollar yen breaking through the top of the range is an important event."</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The dollar index was last up 0.9 percent on the day at 96.861 having earlier been as high as 97.121. U.S. treasuries yields and volatility indexes .VIX had also nudged lower in European trading.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">With the greenback flexing its muscles, pressure remained on commodity markets, however. Gold, copper and most metals dipped while Brent oil slipped to $65.02 a barrel and U.S. crude &nbsp;lost 0.7 percent to leave it at $59.31.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">(Additional reporting by Patrick Graham in Warsaw; Editing by John Stonestreet and Hugh Lawson)</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;">(END OF ARTICLE)</font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">GoldTrends readers know our view is that it will take real economic growth or an outright panic to levitate gold prices. &nbsp;We advocate that rising interest rates (when they do finally begin) will be due to sheer panic and not global growth. &nbsp; We believe we are in the final throws preceding a global economic collapse and a debt default that will change life as we know it. &nbsp; We have referred to this as a liquidity squeeze and we have been saying since 2012 that it is coming. &nbsp; We also turned bullish on the US dollar last may (the month it bottomed) and our view has been the liquidity squeeze will form as the US dollar gets bid higher and the rest of the world currencies move lower. &nbsp;This is all due to LIQUIDITY and SAFE HAVEN concerns. &nbsp; That is what negative rates are all about also. &nbsp;Big money willing to pay to PARK money somewhere safe enough to get it back.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">We think it is possible that gold can very well react in the same manner as the crash of 2008 where it would spike lower with everything else and then make its bottom and reverse to much higher levels. &nbsp; While the scenario could be the opposite, we will maintain our stance UNTIL THE CHARTS SHOW AN UPTREND and not a downtrend.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Gold moved just high enough last week to clear the stops and has reversed lower back towards the PENNANT formation on the price chart. &nbsp;It spent Thursday and Friday at the top of the channel line and now with markets reopen it is now testing the LOWER trend line. &nbsp;And close below 1180 suggests that the 1172-1182 yearly closing price support will be tested and a close below 1167 will favor a move towards 1150.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Support is 1182-1185 and then 1172-1178. Resistance is 1193-1198 for the remainder of today.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The last cycle was due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours) and the high on the move was exactly on the 18th. &nbsp; The next cycle is due June 2nd (plus or minus 72 hours) and if we get a low, it will be exactly one year from the 2014 low at 1180 from which a rally into July 11th took place. &nbsp;From a short term trade standpoint, I will be looking to take a long position then on a TRADE BASIS, and not a long term position.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">If things work out, gold could fool the summer crowd and rally into July and August. &nbsp; More as it develops.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">For now, a low should establish itself at the end of this week or by June 5th at the latest. &nbsp; We are watching it.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver is holding better than gold and is at the TOP of the wedge (and not the bottom like gold). &nbsp; Support is 1646-1659 and 1609-1625. &nbsp;Resitance is 1735-1775. &nbsp;If a June gold low produces a potential July and August rally, silver will more than likely outperform. &nbsp;Like gold, we will look for a low near June 2nd. &nbsp; More as it develops.</font></font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3356402
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3356402Bill DowneyTue, 19 May 2015 18:47:15 GMTGold and Commodities get clock cleaned after good housing numbers<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><span style="">Charts and gold comments follow news headlines.</span><br></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Housing Starts Surge to Highest Since Nov 2007, Permits At 7 Year Highs</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 -</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Following two ugly months of dramatically missed expectations, Housing Starts exploded to 'recovery' highs (highest since Nov 2007) jumping 20.2% MoM to 1.135million (against 1.015 exp.). This is the 2nd biggest MoM jump in history. Both single-family (3rd biggest MoM surge since the crisis peak) and multi-family starts surged. Permits also surged in April (jumping 10.1% MoM - the most since 2012) to 1.143 million (well above expectations) and the highest since June 2008. &nbsp;and &nbsp;Well these huge mal-investment spikes make perfect sense in light of the collapse in lumber prices (and thus demand).</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><em>(NOTE – You can be sure some number was used to make the above look good – Editor GoldTrends)</em></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The surge in the US Dollar and "good" housing data has created carnage in commodities. Silver, crude, copper, and gold are all getting hammered this morning as the S&amp;P is unchanged as moar Q€ was trumped by hawkish "good" data.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Shortly after 6pm London time yesterday, The ECB's Benoit Coeure told a non-public audience of hedge funds in London that "the central bank would moderately front-load its purchases in its quantitative easing program because of the seasonal lack of market liquidity in the summer." The reaction was a 50 pips drop in EURUSD... but this was inside information was not released to the trading public until around 8am London time - and resulted in a 150 pip plunge. In other words, a select private group of head funds in London were leaked ECB front-loading news 14 hours before The ECB deemed it 'correct' to publicly release the comments... due to what The ECB calls "an internal procedure error."</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Things are getting more surreal by the moment. First the ECB leaks material, market moving information to hedge funds 12 hours before disclosing it to the entire world, and now the central bank that has taken central planning to the next level, is revealing its displeasure with how the quote unquote "market" has responded to the Euro. Via BBG:</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">PRAET: SOME ANALYST FORECASTS ON THE EURO'S DEPRECIATION HAD GONE BEYOND WHAT ECB EXPECTED: WSJ</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Oddly no comment if the ECB's stealthy selling of Bunds to open up capacity for 15 more months of purchases also moved the massively illiquid market too far in the opposite direction.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>This Is Central Planning: A "World Of Activist Central Banks" Who "Manage Price Levels In Markets"</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The bad news is that we are investing in a world where Graham and Dodd’s “Security Analysis” has become a quaint relic of simpler times, when the nuts and bolts of a company’s fundamental were meant to motivate how analysts viewed its prospects.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above news headlines.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold&nbsp;</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">We discussed last night on the website a potential high for the week at 1234-1244 and the high on Monday was 1233. &nbsp;We also discussed to be very careful even though gold had broken above 1225 that seasonal factors on average has gold peaking right around this time in May.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Gold got within a dollar or our target for the week of 1234-1244 on Monday. &nbsp; Since then we have dropped back to the 2nd tier support level of 1198-1205 with a 1205 low so far today. &nbsp; Support is now the 1193-1198 and 1172-1182.<br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">As discussed the next cycle turn was due yesterday (May 18th – plus or minus 72 hours) and it looks as though we may have gotten the cycle high. &nbsp; If so then prices should move lower into the beginning of June.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/GolCyc19May2015Intra.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver is down a dollar from the Monday high at its lows today and hit a key short term support of 1687 in what looks like a technical selloff. &nbsp;The rebound since then should encounter resistance at 1725 on Wednesday and then We’ll see. &nbsp;Additional support is at 1605-1609 and 1650-1660.</font></font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3348547
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3348547Bill DowneyMon, 18 May 2015 15:17:22 GMTA technical look at gold and other markets<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need a monthly close above 1389-1468 for neutral trend without bearish potential. The key resistance area’s to regain new bull market leg are 1792 and 1804-1830</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ bearish</strong>– We need a monthly close above 1255 to neutralize the downtrend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong>– Resistance 119-122 in gold ETF GLD.</p>
<p>Resistance for this week 1234-1244 and 2nd tier 1256-1264</p>
<p>Support for this week 1209-1216 2nd tier 1192-1202</p>
<p>Resistance listed for last week was 1198-1208 and 2<sup>nd</sup> tier 1222-1225 and the high was 1227. Support was listed at 1168-1172 and the low was 1178.</p>
<p><strong>Events~</strong></p>
<p><strong>The FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday Afternoon.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/EconCal17May2015.gif" title="Economic Calendar (Bloomberg) for week of May 18th 2015" alt="Economic Calendar (Bloomberg) for week of May 18th 2015" width="690" height="555" border="0"></p>
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<p>For some time, we have been saying that the ultimate goal of those in charge at the moment is going to be the elimination of CASH as all of us eventually are put on PLASTIC.</p>
<p>Europe has begun to move in this direction. In order to keep the Euro afloat, they must keep the banks solvent. But the bank reserves are debts of all the Euro nations. As government becomes insolvent as in Greece, the banking system debt turns worthless. The only way to prevent the banking collapse is to prevent people from withdrawing cash. As you will see below, the mainstream press is getting the people ready for what is coming - the elimination of cash.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Here is the article below and this is our future.</p>
<p><strong>How to end boom and bust: make cash illegal</strong></p>
<p>Comment: Forcing everyone to spend only by electronic means from an account held at a government-run bank would give the authorities far better tools to deal with recessions and economic booms.</p>
<p><strong>By Jim Leaviss</strong></p>
<p>This story is part of our "Money Lab" series, in which respected figures from the world of finance put forward controversial ideas for improving our personal finances or the economy. We will publish this story in print in "Your Money" this weekend along with the best comments from readers, so have your say below</p>
<p>A proposed new law in Denmark could be the first step towards an economic revolution that sees physical currencies and normal bank account abolished and gives government futuristic new tools to fight the cycle of “boom and bust”.</p>
<p>The Danish proposal sounds innocuous enough on the surface – it would simply allow shops to refuse payments in cash and insist that customers use contactless debit cards or some other means of electronic payment.</p>
<p>Officially, the aim is to ease “administrative and financial burdens”, such as the cost of hiring a security service to send cash to the bank, and is part of a programme of reforms aimed at boosting growth – there is evidence that high cash usage in an economy acts as a drag.</p>
<p>But the move could be a key moment in the advent of “cashless societies”. And once all money exists only in bank accounts – monitored, or even directly controlled by the government – the authorities will be able to encourage us to spend more when the economy slows, or spend less when it is overheating.</p>
<p>This may all sound far-fetched, but the idea has been developed in some detail by a Norwegian academic, Trond Andresen*.</p>
<p>In this futuristic world, all payments are made by contactless card, mobile phone apps or other electronic means, while notes and coins are abolished. Your current account will no longer be held with a bank, but with the government or the central bank. Banks still exist, and still lend money, but they get their funds from the central bank, not from depositors.</p>
<p>Having everyone’s account at a single, central institution allows the authorities to either encourage or discourage people to spend. To boost spending, the bank imposes a negative interest rate on the money in everyone’s account – in effect, a tax on saving.</p>
<p>Faced with seeing their money slowly confiscated, people are more likely to spend it on goods and services. When this change in behaviour takes place across the country, the economy gets a significant fillip.</p>
<p>The recipient of cash responds in the same way, and also spends. Money circulates more quickly – or, as economists say, the “velocity of money” increases.</p>
<p>What about the opposite situation – when the economy is overheating? The central bank or government will certainly drop any negative interest on credit balances, but it could go further and impose a tax on transactions.</p>
<p>So whenever you use the money in your account to buy something, you pay a small penalty. That makes people less inclined to spend and more inclined to save, so reducing economic activity.</p>
<p>Such an approach would be a far more effective way to damp an overheated economy than today’s blunt tool of a rise in the central bank’s official interest rate.</p>
<p>If this sounds rather fanciful, negative interest rates already exist in Denmark, where the central bank charges depositors 0.75pc a year, and in Switzerland.</p>
<p>At the moment it’s easy for individuals to avoid seeing their money eroded this way – they can simply hold banknotes, stored either in a safe or under the proverbial mattress.</p>
<p>But if notes and coins were abolished and the only way to hold money was through a government-controlled bank, there would be no escape.</p>
<p>Apart from the control over the economy, there would be many other advantages of a cashless society. Such a system is much cheaper to run than one based on banknotes and coins. Forgery is impossible, as are robberies.</p>
<p>Electronic money is an inclusive and convenient system, giving poor and rural sectors of an economy – where cash machines and bank branches may be few and far between and not all people have accounts – a tool for easy participation in the economy.</p>
<p>Finally, the “black economy” will be hugely diminished, and tax evasion made all but impossible.</p>
<p><strong>(End of Article)</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Gold what is happening?</strong></p>
<p>With the myriad of stories and events that are culminating worldwide its probably no coincidence that gold is trading at the one area we have been saying is its most important trend line at the moment and that is the 2005 uptrend line.</p>
<p>What is important to understand is this line is the decision point where gold either begins a 5<sup>th</sup> and final wave down which leads to and towards 850-1050 or whether it makes an attempt to bottom here in a truncated fashion and reverse gold higher in an attempt to end the bear market that began in Aug/Sept of 2011.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Weekly/GoldMon2005UptrendLine_42MonthsApril2015.gif" title="Gold Long term uptrend line price chart" alt="Gold Long term uptrend line price chart" width="690" height="445" border="0"><br></p>
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<p><strong>Gold Long Term price point</strong></p>
<p>As you can see by the long term chart above, there is a 10 year trend line that needs be watched carefully. &nbsp;Should this trend line give way, then prices would favor a move toward 1000 as support number two. &nbsp;This trend line was drawn off the 2005 lows and is an ALTERNATE LINE I’ve been watching. &nbsp;I’ve a different angle on the medium term black chart you usually see on this report that crosses around the 1100 area. &nbsp;Because price has bounced off this line for six months, it has become relevant in this current price watch.</p>
<p>Gold is on the verge of potentially reversing the bearish medium term trend to NEUTRAL.&nbsp; That is the first step in turning the trend up.&nbsp; It has to move to NEUTRAL and then if the TREND SUSTAINS it will move to bullish.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>What must gold first do to display a medium term trend change?&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>It must produce 2 consecutive weekly closes and a monthly close above the moving averages.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The moving averages are now at 1206 and 1220.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Gold has closed above the averages for the first week now and we must close again above this number in the coming week.&nbsp; It must then close above 1220 at the end of May.</p>
<p>In addition to moving averages, gold must close above 1255-1277 on a weekly/monthly level to add some Fibonacci confirmations that gold is turning up on a medium term level.</p>
<p>In addition, perhaps the most important medium term number to watch is the 1297-1322 area.&nbsp; Weekly and monthly closes above that level would be suggestive of a move towards 1480-1520 for gold on a medium term level.</p>
<p>But let’s take it one step at a time. &nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gold on the short term</strong></p>
<p>The one other sign that gold might be turning up is that an uptrend channel has formed at the last medium term cycle date (Week of March 23rd).&nbsp;&nbsp; Price is about ½ way up the channel and is at is most important resistance in this price zone.&nbsp; Note how price has been held in check here since the middle of February at this Fibonacci resistance and weekly price reversal point.&nbsp;&nbsp; The key is there are five tests.&nbsp; It is rare (but not out of the question in this market) that a market can hold a 6<sup>th</sup> test of resistance.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;Therefore a break above 1228 favors a move to 1236-1244 or 1255-1264 THIS WEEK.&nbsp; Those numbers are different than what we have on the chart only because the chart is WEEKLY CLOSING NUMBERS.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/Gol8Hr17May20152015UptrendChannel.gif" title="Gold short term price chart since March 2015 low" alt="Gold short term price chart since March 2015 low" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p>Last week’s 1223 close was right in between 1222-1225. Is that enough?&nbsp; What it tells us is that gold remains uncertain and that we should see a test of 1236-1244 this week and then we will see if gold wants to rally further.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Keep in mind that gold’s seasonal trend usually peaks near mid May and moves lower into June/July.&nbsp; Those are the odds.&nbsp; Odds are not absolutes, and we should remain cautious just the same.&nbsp; With short term cycles due to peak this week,&nbsp; it would not be out of the question then to see gold peak between Monday and Thursday of this week and then turn back down into early June.&nbsp; Remember, odds are odds, not absolutes.&nbsp; There are no absolutes in markets.&nbsp; Look for a probe of 1236-1244 this week and then we’ll see if gold turns down from there or holds another weekly close above 1222-1225.</p>
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<p><strong>Gold on the intermediate term level</strong></p>
<p>For this chart the view still shows that overall gold is in a downtrend from 2014.&nbsp; The next target of interest is the December 2014 high at 1239.&nbsp; Note how it coincides with the Fibonacci retracement and our weekly range mentioned earlier of 1236-1244 for the coming week.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The real short term question is this.</p>
<p>The weekly reversal point is 1220-1225 and with a Friday close in between both numbers at 1223, gold leaves its OPTION OPEN to go test 1236-1244 this week and still close below 1225 by week’s end.&nbsp;&nbsp; We’ll have to see whether gold just going to clear the stops above 1225 or if its seriously going to begin a medium term rally. If it does, it will be the exact opposite of what usually happens.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/Gol8Hr17interMedMay2015.gif" title="Gold intermediate term price chart" alt="Gold intermediate term price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
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<p><strong>Commodities</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term trend – Bearish</p>
<p>Moving averages – 240 – 253</p>
<p>We have been favoring a seasonal bounce in commodities in the April/May timeframe and price has moved as high as 236 and getting within 4 points of the first moving average. &nbsp;On the daily chart below the short term moving averages have turned up. &nbsp; Support comes in at 216-226. &nbsp; Resistance is at the 240-253 area. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>On the medium term, two weekly closes and a monthly close above 240-253 would neutralize the commodity downtrend. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The trend is up but it’s not a strong trend.&nbsp; The current target remains 240-260 and then we’ll see.</p>
<p>&nbsp;In summary, while it may not happen this coming week, odds are that the commodity bounce is not yet complete and that price should move to the moving averages and or the white channel line near 260.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/Dxy0Wkly17May2015.gif" title="Commodities weekly price chart" alt="Commodities weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
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<p><strong>CYCLES</strong></p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due May 18<sup>th</sup> (plus or minus 72 hours). That means we favor a high this week and a pullback to begin that will last until the 1<sup>st</sup> week in June.&nbsp; Odds are 75% that the red cycle will take effect.&nbsp; &nbsp;That means that odds are high gold peaks between May 18<sup>th</sup> – 21<sup>st</sup> of this week and a pullback will take us into the 1<sup>st</sup> week of June. The 1236-1244 area or the 1255-1264 area is the odds favored price peak this week.</p>
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<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/GolCyc18May2015.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1365 – 1443</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1206 – 1220</p>
<p>On the Upside:</p>
<p>Look just above at the medium term moving averages as they are down to 1206-1220. Two weekly and a monthly close above this area is needed for gold to move to NEUTRAL on the medium term.&nbsp; Last week completed the 1<sup>st</sup> week.</p>
<p>On the downside:</p>
<p>This is what we have been listing every week:</p>
<p>If there is one PLACE to look for the BULL/BEAR line it’s this 1172-1192 area.</p>
<p>Last week’s low was 1178, so gold continues to HOLD THE KEY AREA NEEDED.&nbsp; As long as it does that, then an upside move can still take place. &nbsp;</p>
<p>We stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance. &nbsp;</p>
<p>In Addition the blue moving average has to cross above the red in order to confirm the trend change. Until that time, the downtrend remains intact on the medium term. &nbsp;</p>
<p>One final note, the 2014 closing price of 1182 makes 1172-1192 the YEARLY PIVOT. Under 1172 leaves the odds on the downside and above 1192 the upside. If there is one PLACE to look for the BULL/BEAR line it’s this 1172-1192 area.</p>
<p>The bottom line is gold has to make the triple green trend line support and not resistance. When it does, the medium term trend moves to an upside bias. Until then, be careful, especially when we are below last year’s closing price (1182). &nbsp;Odds favor that the lower resistance lines will be tested before the bear market ends.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/XgldWkly17May2015.gif" title="Gold Weekly Price Chart" alt="Gold Weekly Price Chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Silver Medium Term Weekly Price Chart</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ bearish 22.69 – 25.34 - it takes a monthly close above 27.00 to neutralize the long term downtrend.</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish 16.67 – 17.32</p>
<p>We’ve highlighted the long term trend line that silver is holding by making it a double green line.&nbsp; As long as we hold that line, silver has the potential to have formed a long term bottom.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The 1850-1900 and the 2133-2200 area is where the greatest concentration of resistance currently resides. On the long term, it will take a monthly close above 2133, before the downtrend is neutralized. Any weekly/Monthly close below 14.75 will favor a resumption of the downtrend.</p>
<p>As long as we hold support at the 1475-1525 area, the potential for silver to move higher on the medium term still has some merit. The bottom line for medium term silver is that price needs to make the moving averages (16.67-17.32) support, and not resistance for the trend to turn up on a medium term basis.</p>
<p>On the monthly chart below the other thing we have been saying is to look for silver to take out that DOWNTRENDING GREEN CHANNEL LINE. We said if it did that odds favored a move in silver to either 1850 or most likely to the other channel green channel line on the chart below at the 21.33 area. &nbsp; It looks like last week has taken out the green line and thus a move to the 1850 (plus or minus 25 cents) looks likely to develop this week and then we will see.</p>
<p>The higher green parallel line on the chart represents the 2008 price high before the crash. It is this line and price area that Silver MUST re-conquer and make SUPPORT again on a monthly basis in order to turn things around in silver.</p>
<p>In summary, silver has exceeded the down trending Green channel line and the moving averages.&nbsp; That favors a move towards 1850 and then we’ll see.&nbsp; The medium term moving average trend will come out of bearish mode and move to neutral if silver closes the month above 1732.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/XslvWkly17May2015.gif" title="Gold weekly price Chart" alt="Gold weekly price Chart" width="690" height="444" border="0" style="font-size: 0.8em;"><br></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong><font style="font-size: 18px;">Bond Chart Update</font></strong></p>
<p>Medium Term – Bullish for lower rates (but getting near Neutral).</p>
<p>Moving Averages – 21.13 – 21.92</p>
<p>10 Year T-Notes</p>
<p>Prices have reached the medium term moving averages as bonds are becoming less and less desirable at these interest rate levels.</p>
<p>The key line is that green down trend line. As long as we are below that line, the long term interest rate picture is still in a downtrend. In 2015, it will be the 34th year since the downtrend began. Odds favor lower rates are in their final throws lower and a new bear market in bonds is coming. This is the real “bubble” that will bring down the global debt crisis once the bubble bursts and once interest rates turn up, odds favor the bear market in gold will be complete.</p>
<p>On the shorter term timeframes the current uptrend line where price resides is the last meaningful support until the 2012 and 2013 lows. With negative rates now appearing in a few countries on the 10 year, it is not out of the question for rates to move lower for a bit longer. &nbsp;The Fed is so trapped in that it wants to raise rates, but they are afraid what it will do to the US dollar and send it higher. &nbsp;On the other hand, if they don’t raise rates before the next recession, (which looks like is about to develop) the Fed will be without its main ammunition (lowering rates) in order to spur growth. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The bottom line is that if the Feds raise rates, a higher dollar ensues and if they don’t, they will be powerless to do anything about the upcoming recession. &nbsp;And odds favor, the bottom ls going to implode at some point-----probably during the 2nd half of this year.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/TnxWkly17May2015.gif" title="10 Year T-Note weekly long term price chart" alt="10 Year T-Note weekly long term price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>US Dollar</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bullish 83.56 – 81.50</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~ Bullish 92.00 – 89.42</p>
<p>The seasonal upside we favored in commodities for April/May is opposite for the US dollar as the correction that began on March 13th is still playing out. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Support is 91.50-92.00 at the blue moving average and at the white channel line at 93.00. &nbsp; &nbsp;That area is also the first target for support for this correction. &nbsp; The 2nd target area is the red moving average near 89 and the 2nd lower white channel line right around 90. &nbsp;Thus we have 91.50-93.00 (1st target) and 89-90 as the 2nd target.&nbsp; As you can see we have reached the USD 1<sup>st</sup> support area and thus it will be important to watch this weeks activity in USD.&nbsp; In summary, the correction in the USD is still in play but we suspect that we may see some support forming here or near this price area (91.50-93.00) with a rebound attempt coming.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/Dxy0Wkly17May2015.gif" title="US dollar weekly price chart" alt="US dollar weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Euro</strong></p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish 115.23 – 119.03</p>
<p>After being bearish the EURO from the 136 area, we changed our stance the week after price reached the lower long term trend line (March 13<sup>th</sup>) and since then we have been looking for a bounce back rally to the 116-117 and potentially the 123 level in the Euro.</p>
<p>So far that is exactly what is playing out.</p>
<p>Resistance is now 115-117 and 123. We continue to feel a Euro bounce is underway from the par level. We have felt an important low may be in place for the 1st half of this year since late March and a bounce into May/July should take place. &nbsp;But we are well aware that all is not well in Europe and that this forecast is merely for a bounce in the longer term picture.</p>
<p>The Euro just about reached par and on a longer term perspective, if the Euro loses that trend line on the chart, it could very well be heading towards the 80 level. So while the long term is still down, it would take a monthly close below 98 to signal the next big move towards 80 is underway. With that said, Europe has a number of significant dangerous situations going on. In summary, we favor the Euro will stabilize for the moment. While we favor it, we are aware it could change quickly with a situation like Greece unfolding. &nbsp;The longer term trends remain bearish but a bounce to that white line and the moving averages we have been favoring should take place.</p>
<p>Odds favor we are heading for the next trend line resistance (and the blue moving average). &nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/FxeWkly17May2015.gif" title="Euro weekly price chart" alt="Euro weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0">&nbsp;</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>HUI GOLD STOCKS INDEX</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish - Moving Average Trend – 266.41– 317.27</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish - Moving Average Trend – 178.49 – 199.68</p>
<p>Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bullish – Moving Average Trend – 177.84– 177.23</p>
<p>There is no confirmation that the low is in place at this time and the HUI gold stocks are still in downtrends overall. Certainly price is at the 2008 crash lows and that does allow for a major long term bottom to form. But we need to see this market return to a position of strength and the bottom line is that there has yet to be a HIGHER HIGH registered on this chart since the top. Until the HUI gets above the Gold colored dual downtrend line and the dual green uptrend line, the overall bear market downtrend is still in play.</p>
<p>However, on an intermediate term basis, we have stated that gold stocks usually get a SPRING RALLY in April/May and that time frame has been holding up the gold stocks. &nbsp;Indeed, stocks have held their ground while gold is struggling to not break to new lows. &nbsp;A weekly close above 186 would favor a test of 195-210.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/HuiWkly17May2015.gif" title="HUI gold stock index weekly price chart" alt="HUI gold stock index weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>STOCKS –USA</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bullish since 8/31/2011 @ 122 ~ Moving Averages 178.34 -165.69</p>
<p>The long term trend remain bullish. The long term trend since 8/31/2011 at 122.</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~ Bullish – Moving Averages 205.00 – 202.90</p>
<p>Basically unchanged since last week.</p>
<p>We have discussed in the past that December 2014 was 40 years from the 1974 stock market low and the potential for a major high could develop. The spike high in Futures and SPY at the last resistance line occurred then. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Odds favor that we have seen an important high in the stock market but we need to at least trade below the moving averages to get more confirmation (199-201). It’s certainly an important long term resistance line that is just above price, but if we close above that line it is possible that the stock market could go much higher. As impossible as it seems, if we lose the last resistance line, a MELTUP equivalent to 5000 Dow points could occur. There just isn’t any long term resistance lines above the current one where the arrow is drawn. Until we make a new high above that spike on the chart that reached “last resistance” the odds for a pullback in stocks remain in play.&nbsp;&nbsp; On the downside, we need to take out the moving averages and close below them for two consecutive weeks.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/SpyWkly17May2015.gif" title="S&amp;P 500 ETF SPY weekly price chart" alt="S&amp;P 500 ETF SPY weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>What Next</strong></p>
<p>Gold is making its attempt to move out of the trading range of 1175-1225 that has ruled since February.&nbsp; Its certainly picking an unusual time as gold prices often peak in mid May and pullback into the June/July area.</p>
<p>The key is going to be whether gold can conquer the next set of resistance which this week is the 1234-1244 area.</p>
<p>On the downside</p>
<p>What we have to be on guard for is that gold takes out 1225 during the week and the stops above it but then fails to take out 1234-1244 and then closes below 1222-1225 by Friday.&nbsp; That would keep the medium term trend in a position to remain in a bear trend.</p>
<p>On the upside</p>
<p>A weekly close above 1244 will favor a move towards 1264-1272 and will set up the potential for gold to close the month of May above 1244. Then we’ll see.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>This is what we have been writing;</p>
<p>Two weekly closes above 1225 and a monthly close above there would neutralize the medium term downtrend.</p>
<p>Was the 1223 close last week close enough to 1225?&nbsp; We’re not exactly sure yet but it does seem that gold is at least attempting to try a breakout.</p>
<p>Breakout of Fakeout?</p>
<p>It’s a good question because all we have seen in the past 4 years is a fake out.&nbsp; The gold bear market is due to end this year.&nbsp; But we are still not convinced that is should end now and at these price levels.&nbsp;</p>
<p>First the short term</p>
<p>If we fail to close above 1236-1244 and close this week below 1222 then a fake out will be the preferred outcome and gold will pullback into the 1<sup>st</sup> week of June.</p>
<p>Short term gold cycles are due to peak between the 18<sup>th</sup> and 21<sup>st</sup> of the month.&nbsp; Any NEW CLOSING HIGH IN GOLD AFTER THURSDAY of this week will favor HIGHER PRICES to the first week in June at the 1272-1297 area.</p>
<p>The DECEMBER HIGH IS 1239 in gold.&nbsp; As long as we are below 1236-1244 then this can still be a setup for a weekly high this week and a pullback to June.</p>
<p>The medium term</p>
<p>We need another close above 1225 and a monthly close above that number to put the medium term trend from bearish to neutral.&nbsp; That is the 1<sup>st</sup> step required for gold to begin to tell us its trend MAY be changing.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Look at the weekly chart and note that the dual gold downtrend line is a resistance point and that the TRIPLE GREEN CHANNEL LINES need to be OVERCOME in order for gold to have potentially resumed its bull market uptrend.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that the overall gold trend remains down.&nbsp; However, as long as gold remains above 1172-1182 on a weekly closing basis, the potential for gold to stage a rally can develop.&nbsp;&nbsp; Since it has done that, and now is attempting to break above 1225, it seems a key week for gold.</p>
<p>Look for 1234-1244 or 1255-1264 as the two most likely high points for this week.&nbsp; If we end the week below 1220, it will be a short tem bearish signal for gold that we should expect lower into the 1<sup>st</sup> week of June.</p>
<p>A close above 1236-1244 on Friday will favor higher into the 1<sup>st</sup> week of June.</p>
<p></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3347105
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3347105Bill DowneyThu, 14 May 2015 12:48:17 GMTGold runs to weekly resistance 1220-1225 & potentially 1240<p style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold;">Trend<br></p>
<p><strong style="font-size: 0.8em;"><font style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Long Term ~ Bearish</font></strong> <span style="">- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</span><br></p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> &nbsp; Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong> – trading range 1170-1225.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~Bullish</strong> – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.</p>
<p><span style="">Initial Resistance 1220-1225 2nd tier 1231-1235</span><br></p>
<p>Support 1200-1197 2nd tier 1188-1194</p>
<p><strong>Varoufakis Has Futuristic Greek Debt Plan That "Fills Mario Draghi's Soul With Fear"</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015</strong></p>
<p>Germany throws its support behind a Greek referendum on euro membership while Putin invites Athens to join BRICS Bank. Meanwhile, Yanis Varoufakis has a plan for resolving Greece's debt problem — and he imagines the ECB chief is terrified of it.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>SocGen Asks If "$60 Billion Of Money Printing Monthly Can't Get The Euro Down Then What's Next?"</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>"Former BoE governor King yesterday made a timely intervention, warning that central banks risk tipping the world into a currency war. We're there already, of course, but if $60bn per month of money printing by the ECB can't get the euro down (because of the USD), then what's next? The RBA has cut rates twice this year, and AUD/USD trades back over 0.8100. Is FX intervention next?"</p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>Chinese Iron Ore Prices Plunge After CISA Warns Of Persistent Overcapacity</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2015</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Having rebounded along with practically every other risk-asset class in the world over the last month or so, Chinese Iron Ore futures are collapsing tonight. Despite the promise of Chinese LTROs expanding credit (just like they didn't in Europe), iron ore prices are down around 4% - the biggest drop in over 2 years - to as low as CNY419 (or around $62) as China Iron &amp; Steel Association warns that overcapacity in the seaborne iron ore market will persist through to at least 2019 as the world’s largest suppliers expand production further.</p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>What Peter Schiff Said To Ben Bernanke</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>"You said you weren’t monetizing the debt when you talked to Congress. You said the Fed was going to sell the bonds, but none of them have been sold. They’ve all been rolled over. So how are you claiming victory when you haven’t exited? You haven’t raised rates, you haven’t shrunk the balance sheet. You were wrong in the past. You didn’t see the financial crisis coming. You told us there was no housing bubble. You said subprime was contained. So you were certainly wrong then. So how do you know you’re not wrong now? Is there anything that might change your opinion and get you to rethink and maybe admit that your outlook is wrong?"&nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>"We The People" Need To Circle The Wagons: The Government Is On The Warpath</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Have you ever wondered why the Constitution begins with those three words “we the people”? It was intended to be a powerful reminder that everything flows from the citizenry. We the people are the center of the government and the source of its power. That “we” is crucial because it reminds us that there is power and safety in numbers, provided we stand united. We can accomplish nothing alone. Unfortunately, we have been ousted from that protected circle, by the courts, the politicians, and the corporations - replacing us with yes-men, shills who dance to the tune of an elite ruling class. To put it a little more bluntly, stop thinking like mindless government robots and start acting like a powerhouse of citizens vested with the power to say “enough is enough.”</p>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>
<p><strong>It's Official: The Bank of Japan Has Broken The Japanese Stock Market</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Monetizing the entirety of gross government bond issuance and amassing an equity portfolio worth just shy of $100 billion on the way to cornering the entire ETF market may come across as insanely irresponsible even in a world that is now defined by insanely irresponsible central banks, but Haruhiko Kuroda does not care because when it comes to QE and the financing of governments via central bank-assisted ponzi schemes, no one does it like the BoJ.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>China Goes "Unconventional" In Effort To Tackle Trillions In Debt, Rescue Economy</strong></p>
<p><strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015</strong></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>China has officially entered the realm of "unconventional" monetary policy, joining the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, and a whole host of other global central banks in an attempt to bring the supposedly all-mighty printing press and the unlimited balance sheet that goes with it to bear on subpar economic growth. We suspect the results will be characteristically underwhelming (at least in terms of lowering real interest rates, although in terms of boosting risk assets, the results may be outstanding) meaning it's likely only a matter of time before LTRO becomes QE in China just as it did in Europe.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Price broke out above 1205 yesterday and has rallied to weekly resistance 1219-1225. &nbsp;Once again the breakout higher was all accomplished in a couple of hours and the 40 dollar move to weekly resistance all complete in two days. &nbsp;</p>
<p>This is the same type of activity that has been happening in gold that happens in other markets and the sad fact of the situation is that the forces that now control the markets are run by computers and software programs headed up by the big banks and other well connected entities.</p>
<p>Look for 1222-1226 to provide resistance today and weekly resistance is now 1235-1244.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/Gol8Hr14May2015intra.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>CYCLES</strong></p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;The cycle is playing out and gold should move higher to next week. &nbsp;Resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/GolCyc14May2015Intra.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Term – BULLISH &nbsp;</p>
<p>Moving averages – 178.22 -177.87</p>
<p>Look for a move to the yellow trend line above 190 as the odds preferred direction on the short term.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/HUI4hr13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>NUGT</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Trend –Bullish</p>
<p>Moving Averages – 12.10 – 11.99</p>
<p>We got our test of 1350 and odds favor a move to 16-17 next.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/NUGT4hr13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.</p>
<p>The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. &nbsp;THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.</p>
<p>Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.</p>
<p>We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.</p>
<p>The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. &nbsp;Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. &nbsp;The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/XgldWkly13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 114.44– 114.50 – NEUTRAL</p>
<p>Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase. &nbsp;This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13</p>
<p>GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. &nbsp;Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. &nbsp;Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/GLD4hr13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend &nbsp;20.07 – 19.98 ~ Bullish</p>
<p>GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.</p>
<p>Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00. &nbsp;Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode. &nbsp;</p>
<p>GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/GDX4hr13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>Weekly resistance is 1220-1225 and then the 1240 area. &nbsp;One of those two area’s should be this weeks high. &nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>It looks like higher prices to next week and then another pullback should begin</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3343315
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3343315Bill DowneyWed, 13 May 2015 13:08:47 GMTGold Short term technicals<p><strong>Gold Daily Report ~ May 13 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong> &nbsp; - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearis</strong>h &nbsp; – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong> &nbsp; – trading range 1170-1225.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~ Neutral</strong> &nbsp; – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1205-1212 2nd tier 1219-1225</p>
<p>Support 1188-1192 2nd tier 1178-1182</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Price is trying to hold the 1172-1182 area. &nbsp;This is the yearly opening range (1172-1182) we've discussed as a most important pivot for this year and price continues to converge at that price point. &nbsp;</p>
<p>With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up. &nbsp;The Fibonacci 38% retrace at 1205 is the spot to watch on Wednesday. &nbsp;Support lies at the lower black dotted uptrend lines (1178-1182).</p>
<p>With the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term and we just keep going back and forth. &nbsp;</p>
<p>ODDS FAVOR THAT GOLD ESTABLISHES THE NEXT TREND into mid month once it closes either above 1205 or below the short term channel lines on the chart. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/Gol8hr13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong>CYCLES</strong></p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;If the cycle plays out then gold should move higher to mid-May. &nbsp;But be careful, this messy chop can continue and price could just as soon break down. &nbsp;It’s best to wait until price comes out of this range before putting our faith back in the short term cycle. &nbsp;</p>
<p>In order for the upside to have a chance to take hold we need a close above 1197-1205. If we do get the up cycle into 18th of the month, then resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240. &nbsp;A close below the 1168 low of 2 weeks ago would cast doubt on upside potential for this cycle and would be suggestive that we move lower into mid-month.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/GolCyc12May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Term – NEUTRAL &nbsp;</p>
<p>Moving averages – 177.87 -176.82</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The shorter term trend is NEUTRAL. &nbsp;</p>
<p>We discussed a close below 168 would have to favor lower into mid May and probably that the spring seasonal is over. &nbsp;Note how the low last week was 168. &nbsp; That’s the short term line in the sand. Resistance now is the 176-178 area (moving averages) and then the gold trend line at 192.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Unless HUI closes back above the yellow trend line on the chart below, the potential of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern on the chart is something we have to keep in mind. &nbsp;The Friday action brought price back to the moving averages and we must close above them in order to favor further upside to the yellow line. &nbsp;The other support besides the mentioned 168 area is the lower white line in the 158-162 area. &nbsp; Overall the trend at the moment is neutral and price is trapped in a trade range with the 150-160 area on the lower end and 192-212 on the upside. &nbsp;Gold stocks usually get one more bout of weakness into the end of June or July. &nbsp; Not every year, but certainly most often.</p>
<p>The one thing we don’t like is the pattern since March. &nbsp;It’s choppy and overlapping and that means odds heavily favor this is a counter trend move or bounce and that the main trend at the moment still remains down. &nbsp;Choppy and overlapping trends can continue higher in the grinding fashion we’ve seen over the past 6 weeks. &nbsp;The problem with them is that they tend to end abruptly and without warning and then turn down. &nbsp;</p>
<p>On the shorter term, prices can still move higher this week.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/HUI13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>NUGT</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Trend –Neutral</p>
<p>Moving Averages – 11.98 – 11.87</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>After testing the channel line near 10 as forecasted last week, price has come back to the moving averages and is now above them. &nbsp;Look for a test of 1350-1400 next and then we’ll see.</p>
<p>A close below white trend line puts the short term potential lower towards 8.80.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/nugt13may2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.</p>
<p>The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. &nbsp;THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.</p>
<p>Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.</p>
<p>We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.</p>
<p>The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. &nbsp;Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. &nbsp;The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/XgldWkly13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 114.49– 114.68 – NEUTRAL</p>
<p>Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase. &nbsp;This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13</p>
<p>GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. &nbsp;Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. &nbsp;Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.</p>
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/Gld13May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend 19.97 – 19.88 ~ Bullish</p>
<p>GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.</p>
<p>Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00. &nbsp;Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode. &nbsp;</p>
<p>GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/gdx13may2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;Watch for 1205 as resistance today. &nbsp;Weekly resistance is the 1212-1215 and 1220-1225 price points.&nbsp;</p>
<p>On the downside a close below the lower trend line would not be good but there is some support at 1168-1172. &nbsp;If that gives a close below 1163 favors 1142-1150 and potentially more.</p>
<p>The next short term cycle is underway but price has not made its decision as to the direction into the 18th of this month. &nbsp;It should be a higher cycle but recall on the weekly report that chart that shows the 2005 trend line. &nbsp;The decision as to whether price holds or not will decide on the next medium term move in gold. &nbsp;For six months we have been touching the trend line but we haven’t broken it yet. &nbsp; If it gives way, it won’t surprise me to see 1000 dollar gold at some point this year. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop. &nbsp;That means we can trade at the upper or lower range in price at a moment’s notice and A SELLOFF CAN ALSO Take place at any time. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Watch that 1172-1182 area. &nbsp;It needs to hold.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3341985
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3341985Bill DowneyMon, 11 May 2015 14:09:21 GMTGold remains range bound at the moment at 1172-1222<p><strong>Gold Daily Report ~ May 11 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong> &nbsp; - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong> &nbsp; – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong> &nbsp; – trading range 1170-1225.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~ Neutral</strong> &nbsp; – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1195-1205 2nd tier 1209-1212</p>
<p>Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1158-1163</p>
<p>The last update listed resistance at 1195-1205 and the high was 1193. &nbsp;Support was listed 1172-1182 and the low was 1178.</p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Price is trying to hold the 1172-1182 area. &nbsp;This is the yearly opening range (1172-1182) we've discussed as a most important pivot for this year and price continues to converge at that price point. &nbsp;</p>
<p>With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up. &nbsp;The moving average at 1194-1196 is a closing price resistance, but the black dotted resistance line at 1195 and the Fibonacci 38% retrace at 1205 is the spot to watch on Monday if prices begin a very short term upside in price. &nbsp;Support lies at the lower black dotted uptrend lines (1172-1182) and then 1158-1163 and 1142-1152. &nbsp;</p>
<p>With the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term and we just keep going back and forth. &nbsp;</p>
<p>ODDS FAVOR THAT GOLD ESTABLISHES THE NEXT TREND into mid month once it breaks either above or below the short term channel lines on the chart. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/GOl8hr11may2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>CYCLES</strong></p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due May 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;If the cycle plays out then gold should move higher to mid-May. &nbsp;But be careful, this messy chop can continue and price could just as soon break down. &nbsp;It’s best to wait until price comes out of this range before putting our faith back in the short term cycle. &nbsp;</p>
<p>In order for the upside to have a chance to take hold we need a close above 1197-1205. If we do get the up cycle into 18th of the month, then resistance will be 1220-1225 and 1240. &nbsp;A close below the 1168 low of 2 weeks ago would cast doubt on upside potential for this cycle and would be suggestive that we move lower into mid-month.</p>
<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/GolCyc11May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Term – NEUTRAL &nbsp;</p>
<p>Moving averages – 177.87 -176.82</p>
<p>The shorter term trend is NEUTRAL. &nbsp;</p>
<p>We discussed a close below 168 would have to favor lower into mid May and probably that the spring seasonal is over. &nbsp;Note how the low last week was 168. &nbsp; That’s the short term line in the sand. Resistance now is the 176-178 area (moving averages) and then the gold trend line at 192.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Unless HUI closes back above the yellow trend line on the chart below, the potential of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern on the chart is something we have to keep in mind. &nbsp;The Friday action brought price back to the moving averages and we must close above them in order to favor further upside to the yellow line. &nbsp;The other support besides the mentioned 168 area is the lower white line in the 158-162 area. &nbsp; Overall the trend at the moment is neutral and price is trapped in a trade range with the 150-160 area on the lower end and 192-212 on the upside. &nbsp;Gold stocks usually get one more bout of weakness into the end of June or July. &nbsp; Not every year, but certainly most often.</p>
<p>The one thing we don’t like is the pattern since March. &nbsp;It’s choppy and overlapping and that means odds heavily favor this is a counter trend move or bounce and that the main trend at the moment still remains down. &nbsp;Choppy and overlapping trends can continue higher in the grinding fashion we’ve seen over the past 6 weeks. &nbsp;The problem with them is that they tend to end abruptly and without warning and then turn down.</p>
<p>For now, the MOVING AVERAGES are the place to watch Monday. &nbsp;As long as we remain below them, price can still turn down into mid month.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/HUI4hr9May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>NUGT</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Trend –Neutral</p>
<p>Moving Averages – 11.98 – 11.87</p>
<p>After testing the channel line near 10 as forecasted last week, price has come back to the moving averages and that is the first area that we must close above (1225) in order to have a chance at closing above 14. &nbsp;That is the number which we must close above in order to favor higher towards 16-17. &nbsp;</p>
<p>A close below white trend line puts the short term potential lower towards 8.80.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/NUGT4hr9May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1206 – 1223</p>
<p>The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.</p>
<p>The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. &nbsp;THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year.</p>
<p>Seasonal factors are positive for gold in May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.</p>
<p>We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.</p>
<p>The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. &nbsp;Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. &nbsp;The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/XGLDwkly9May2015a.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 114.49– 114.68 – NEUTRAL</p>
<p>Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase. &nbsp;This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13</p>
<p>GLD (like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. &nbsp;Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. &nbsp;Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113, and that’s the range we keep trading in.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/GLD4hr9May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend 19.97 – 19.88 ~ Bullish</p>
<p>GDX intermediate term remains bullish but it is not an overwhelming price pattern.</p>
<p>Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00. &nbsp;Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode. &nbsp;</p>
<p>GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Daily/GDX4hr9May2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>We begin the week with price on the short term chart in the middle of the trend lines. &nbsp;Watch for direction above or below them and then watch from 1197-1205 as resistance today. &nbsp;Weekly resistance is the 1212-1215 and 1220-1225 price points.&nbsp;</p>
<p>On the downside a close below the lower trend line would not be good but there is some support at 1168-1172. &nbsp;If that gives a close below 1163 favors 1142-1150 and potentially more.</p>
<p>The next short term cycle is underway but price has not made its decision as to the direction into the 18th of this month. &nbsp;It should be a higher cycle but recall on the weekly report that chart that shows the 2005 trend line. &nbsp;The decision as to whether price holds or not will decide on the next medium term move in gold. &nbsp;For six months we have been touching the trend line but we haven’t broken it yet. &nbsp; If it gives way, it won’t surprise me to see 1000 dollar gold at some point this year. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Bottom Line</p>
<p>As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop. &nbsp;That means we can trade at the upper or lower range in price at a moment’s notice and A SELLOFF CAN ALSO Take place at any time. &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Watch that 1172-1182 area. &nbsp;It needs to hold.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3339130
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3339130Bill DowneyThu, 07 May 2015 19:17:01 GMTThe liquidity, currency, debt default, economic collapse and the sideways gold market<p><strong>INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ May 7 2015</strong></p><br>
Our discussions over the past two years = Liquidity Crisis coming, Debt Default coming, Currency crisis coming, global economic collapse coming………..<br>
Perhaps we should change the word coming to “arriving” or perhaps “here".”<br>
<br>
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<strong>First the liquidity Crisis……………….<br></strong><br>
<strong>Saved By The Broken Euronext: Manic-Selling Becomes Panic-Buying In Global Bond, Stock Markets&nbsp;<br></strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015&nbsp;<br>
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Overnight "manic-selling" in global bond markets (and turmoil in stock markets) has been met - suddenly - this morning by "panic-buying" as mysteriously liquid buyers lift stocks back into the green and send bond yields plunging (right after Euronext breaks)... As one trader noted, the market is in a mode of “high volatility with no dealer liquidity and easy excuses."<br>
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<strong><br></strong><strong>Did The World's Central Banks Hit The Panic Button This Morning?<br></strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015&nbsp;<br>
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If there is one thing more worrisome for the world's central planners than a stock sell-off, it is a bond rout 'proving' that they have lost control. The overnight carnage across global bond markets appears to have triggered someone (or someone’s) to step in - in dramatic size - to rescue bonds and save the world once again.<br>
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<strong>On to the Debt Default situation ……………..</strong><br>
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<strong><br></strong><strong>Greek FinMin Says "Grexit Not An Issue;" Germans Not Hopeful On Deal For "Bottomless Pit"<br></strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015&nbsp;<br>
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Greek FinMin Varoufakis and German FinMin Schaeuble are cross-talking again this morning:<br>
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*GREECE'S VAROUFAKIS SAYS 'GREXIT' IS 'NOT AN ISSUE' (well the market &amp; ECB thinks it is)<br>
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*SCHAEUBLE SAYS EXPECTATIONS FOR EUROGROUP MEETING NOT VERY HIGH (oh ok)<br>
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As next week's meeting and deadlines loom, hope is running high today in Greece... even though Schaeuble warns "don't expect spectacular Eurogroup results."And lastly today…………the global economic collapse update.
<p><strong>And now the global economic collapse..........</strong></p><strong><br></strong><strong>US Macro Data Has Never Collapsed This Fast<br></strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015<br>
<br>
Since the end of QE3 (and the end of the government's fiscal year), US macroeconomic data has disappointed and weakened on an unprecedented scale. With April data not showing the post-weather bounce that every sell-side economist is hoping for, the absolute level of macro weakness was only marginally weaker in the past in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis.<br>
<strong><br></strong><strong>Despite Biggest Spike In Job Cuts Since 2011, Jobless Claims Hover At 15-Year Lows&nbsp;<br></strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015&nbsp;<br>
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Initial jobless claims rose very modestly from last week's 15-year low levels and hovers at a stunning 262k - indicating everything is as awesome as it can possibly be. Which is odd... because as Challenger-Gray notes, April saw the biggest rise in job cuts since 2011 (and the worst YoY increase for April in at least a decade). Job cuts were concentrated in the energy sector on an unprecedented scale.<br>
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<strong><br>
Now before you go thinking that Capitalism is collapsing……………..think again. &nbsp; ITS SOCIALISM THAT HAS BEEN COLLAPSING. &nbsp;And that is leading to to fascism or even totalitarianism.&nbsp;</strong><br>
<br>
<strong><br></strong><strong>Deutsche Bank's Head Of Global Credit Strategy Explains Why "This Is Not Capitalism"<br></strong>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2015&nbsp;<br>
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"... part of the problem today is that over the last 15-20 years, capitalism has been propped up every time it’s about to go through one of the cyclical creative destruction phases. Compounded up that's left us with a big mess to clear up across the globe and a lot of sub optimal resource allocation. So across a lot of the Western World we're left with too much debt, too much inequality, low real wage growth, limited conventional tools to help the economy to de-lever, QE and ZIRP and a political backlash against the mainstream."
<p>(Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the news headlines)</p><br>
<strong><br></strong><strong>Gold Chart<br>
<br></strong>The downtrend channel and the uptrend channel are getting close to meeting on the short term chart. &nbsp;As you can see price is in the middle and a break either way is about to develop. &nbsp;There’s a support band of 1172-1182 where the yearly opening price range resides. &nbsp; Technical Support is the 1158-1163 area and 1168-1175. &nbsp; Resistance is 1195-1205 and 1209-1212. &nbsp; As we have discussed on the website all week, odds have favored that gold would meander and probably not setup until the NFP report on Friday. &nbsp; Odds are for a bad job report. &nbsp;However, &nbsp;can we even trust the Government won’t do what it has to in order to “MAKE IT LOOK GOOD?” &nbsp;While it could be a boost to gold, &nbsp; it will only be temporary. &nbsp; A collapsing global economy is not good for gold, at least not yet. &nbsp; If it were, then gold would not be down for the last 45 months nor would it have lost 700 bucks per ounce. &nbsp; Gold needs spending, growth, inflation, higher interest rates………..BUT NOT WHAT WE ARE BEING FED. &nbsp; Its best to wait for this range to shake out.&nbsp;<br>
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<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/Gol8Hr7May2015Intra.gif" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<strong>Silver</strong>
<p><strong><br></strong></p>It’s the same story for silver. &nbsp;We await the convergence of the two trend lines with price in the middle. &nbsp;Key resistance to watch is 1670-1690 and 1725-1750. &nbsp;Support is 1550-1575.<br>
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<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/SIl8Hr7May2015Intra.gif" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3335668
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3335668Bill DowneyWed, 06 May 2015 19:26:57 GMTGold next awaits the NFP numbers on Friday<p><strong><font style="font-size: 12px;">Charts with support and resistance follows headlines;</font></strong></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Lockhart "September Rate Hike" Comments Send Stocks To 5-Week Lows</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">While many hoped that Lockhart would play good cop to Yellen's bad cop, he didn't:</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">*LOCKHART SAYS MARKET'S VIEW FOR SEPTEMBER HIKE 'REASONABLE'</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Which has sent stocks reeling back to the levels pre-payrolls in April.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Capital Controls Hit Greek Banks: FX Trading Curbed As Credit Lines Cut</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">While officials have begun their own versions of capital controls by raiding pension funds, confiscating local government cash, and surcharges on withdrawals (and transfer ceilings); it appears the market participants themselves have now imposed their own share of capital controls. As Bloomberg reports, international securities firms are curtailing trading with major Greek banks - pulling credit lines and restricting FX trading limits - as fear of Grexit looms.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Fed Agrees To Name The FOMC Leaker (As Long As Congress Keeps It Secret)</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Having initially missed its deadline to provide a response to Congress with regard the 2012 leak of FOMC minutes to an external newsletter writer, The Fed reluctantly admitted that none other than Janet Yellen had met with them. Today, however, as The Wall Street Journal reports, The (unaudited) Fed has agreed to furnish a congressional panel with the names of its staffers who had contact with Medley Global Advisors in the months before the leak, “with the understanding that the names will be kept confidential." So we'll happily tell you who leaked it... as long as you don't tell the public. Audit The Fed!!!</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Greek Deal On Monday "Not Possible" MNI Reports Despite Troika Attempt To Reconcile Differences</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">With the crucial May 12th €774mm Greek IMF payment looming (and thus even more critical May 11th deadline for the Eurogroup's decision to release around €7bn in additional funds to Greece), the much-discussed 'splintering' of the Troika (The Institutions as the Greeks would prefer we describe them) appears to be gradually un-splintering. Today's statement from the EU talks that the members of the Troika "share the same objective" may reassure some after the 'limbo' of serious disagreements between the European Commission and The IMF. However, with various 'red lines' remaining unaddressed, EU sources say a deal on Monday is not possible.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Yellen Kills The Music, Says "Equity Valuations Are Quite High", Sends Dow Red For 2015</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Back in July 2007 Citi's then CEO Chuck Prince, a little over a year before his bank received a gargantuan government bailout said "as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Moments ago Janet Yellen just killed the music: YELLEN SAYS EQUITY MARKET VALUATIONS QUITE HIGH</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Or, paraphrased, the $4.5 trillion balance sheet the US created, and the $22 trillion in assets purchased by global central banks to keep the dream alive, has lead to "quite high" stock prices.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Greece Floats Surcharge on Withdrawals As ECB Considers Cuts To Liquidity Lifeline</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Greece is set to introduce a surcharge on withdrawals and financial transactions in an effort to raise cash amid fractious negotiations with creditors. Meanwhile, the ECB is considering measures that will tighten the screws on the country's cash-strapped banking sector.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>US Productivity Suffers First Consecutive Quarterly Plunge Since 1993</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Well this cannot be good. US output per hour (for the non-farm businesses) - or non-Farm productivity - plunged 1.9% in Q1. This follows a 2.1% slump in Q4 2014 and is the first consecutive quarterly plunge since 1993. This was driven by a 0.2% decline in output as hours worked increased 1.7% with manufacturing productivity suffering a 1.1% drop in Q1 (driven by a 1.2% decline in output).</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>ADP Employment Tumbles To 15 Month Lows As Manufacturing Jobs Plunge</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/06/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Following March's dismal drop in the ADP Employment report (the biggest miss in 4 years) and missing for 3 straight months, April printed a very weak 169k (against notably lowere expectations of a 200k rise). Even worse, February and March was revised even lower. This is lower than the lowest economist estimate. Large companies were particularly weak with smaller businesses adding the bulk of the meager jobs print. The esteemed Mark Zandi blames this on "the fallout from the collapse of oil prices and the surging value of the dollar."</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Chart</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Gold remains trapped in a trading range of 1175-1225 and there is still no change to the choppy and overlapping sideways action we’ve seen. &nbsp; Resistance is the 1196-1198 area and 1202-1212. &nbsp;The 1202-1205 area and 1209-1212 is strongest resistance. &nbsp; Support is the 1178-1185 area and then 1163-1172. &nbsp; Until we get out of this chop area, &nbsp;its best to remain flexible to short term trend and not be committed. &nbsp;The NFP report on Friday should be the time the control boyz gang up and move gold for this week. &nbsp; There is no way to gauge which side they will move it when we are in such a chop condition. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/Gol8Hr%206May2015.gif" title="Gold price chart" alt="Gold price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">When price is this choppy the cycles are much less reliable. &nbsp; Still the best fit is a blue cycle low based on the Friday price low at 1168. &nbsp; The window closes today and thus the next short term cycle is underway in full galla on Thursday. &nbsp; Right now it seems we have a low in place but as we said, &nbsp;the cycles have are also skewed due to this choppy April trade range. &nbsp;This would suggest higher to mid May but ANY CLOSE BELOW 1163 and we should favor lower prices in this new short term cycle. &nbsp; Key resistance remains 1220-1225 and event the 200 day average resides there now.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/GolCyc6May2015Intra.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Silver</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver has strongest resistance at 1675-1705 and then 1735-1750. &nbsp; Support is the 1580-1609 area and 1550-1580. &nbsp; &nbsp;The channel up and downtrend lines are getting closer and closer with price in the middle. &nbsp;As long as we are inside those lines, the trend remains neutral. &nbsp; Odds favor the sideways action nears its end. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
</div><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/Sil8Hr6May2015Intra.gif" title="Silver price chart" alt="Silver price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br></font></font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3334048
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3334048Bill DowneyMon, 04 May 2015 18:47:39 GMTGold and the choppy overlapping price pattern<p><strong><img title="Launch www.GoldTrends.net" alt="Launch www.GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" x="0" y="0" border="0" height="73" width="450">&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="5">INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ May 4 2015</font><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></strong></p><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Goldtrends has been discussing the shrinking Liquidity that is about to hit the markets for a while now and finally it is being reported by the main stream media. &nbsp;It’s the same for the “war on cash” that is coming which will only conclude once all cash is cancelled and we go to plastic for everyone. &nbsp; In this manner the banksters and Fed will avoid the coming bank runs when the debt defaults begin.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>“Nor any Drop to Drink, “ Citi Maps the Liquidity Paradox</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">"From the BIS to BlackRock, and Jamie Dimon to Jose Vinals, everyone seems to be talking about market liquidity," Citi's Matt King writes, before taking an in-depth look at just how broken the 'markets' truly are. To summarize: no depth in the Treasury market, a duration mismatched powder keg in "long-term" mutual funds thanks to the fact that ZIRP has destroyed money market yields causing investors to find a new 'cash substitute,' and a magically shrinking repo market in the wake of new regulations ironically meant to promote stability.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>The War On Cash: Australia Leads The New Age Of Economic Totalitarianism</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">The new age of Economic Totalitarianism is upon us all. As we warned previously, Australia will be the first to introduce a compulsory tax on savings. This is the ultimate Marxist state for now anyone with spare cash is the enemy of the Conservative Tony Abbott government. The introduction of this tax on money in Australia led by Tony Abbott is the trial balloon for the global economy.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>Bill Gross: "This Is All Ending"</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">“When does our credit based financial system sputter / break down? When investable assets pose too much risk for too little return. Not immediately, but at the margin, credit and stocks begin to be exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money in a mattress.” We are approaching that point now as bond yields, credit spreads and stock prices have brought financial wealth forward to the point of exhaustion. A rational investor must indeed have a sense of an ending, not another Lehman crash, but a crushof perpetual bull market enthusiasm.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>Has The ECB Run Out Of Willing Bonds Sellers On The Long End?</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">While the ECB is representing that it has no limitations on total monthly volume purchases, it is suddenly finding itself forced to buy increasingly more bonds on the short end. Which brings up the question: is this due to the specific shift in the purchasing strategy of the ECB, or has the ECB simply run out of bond sellers on the long end and as a result is forced to buy ever shorter-maturity paper?</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">(Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above headlines)</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>Gold Short term</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">In what has been perhaps the choppiest trend we’ve seen in any month, April came to an end on Thursday night. &nbsp; Since the Friday low (May 1st) at 1168, prices have bounced back to the 1190 area. &nbsp;The key remains the 1172-1192 yearly pivot price range with 1182 as the 2014 close. &nbsp; As long as we don’t close below 1163-1172 the potential to rally back to 1222 could once again be developing. &nbsp; Any close below 1172 will negate the outlook. &nbsp; Resistance is 1192-1195 and then 1205-1209. &nbsp; &nbsp;Support is the 1173-1178 area. &nbsp; &nbsp;In summary, we’ll favor higher as long as we don’t close below 1172.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/GolHrly4May2015.gif" title="Gold Hourly price chart" alt="Gold Hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>Cycles</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong><br></strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">The next short term cycle is due now (May 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and odds favor we are making a low between last Friday and Wednesday of this week. &nbsp; From there odds favor we move higher to mid-month.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/Weekly/GolCyc3May2015.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font>
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<strong><font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font></strong>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong>Silver</strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><strong><br></strong></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Silver has not made a new weekly low as gold did last Friday and is providing a divergence that helps the short term favored upside. &nbsp; Just keep in mind we are very choppy and overlapping and there is nothing to say we can’t keep reversing back and forth. &nbsp; Resistance is the 16.87-17.05 area and support is 16.09-16.17. &nbsp; Additional support is 15.50-15.75. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><br></font>
</div><font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/May/IntraDay/SilHrly4May2015.gif" title="Silver Hourly price chart" alt="Silver Hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<br></font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3326963
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3326963Bill DowneyThu, 30 Apr 2015 15:25:33 GMTGold trading all over the place<p>Gold Daily Report ~ April 30 2015</p>
<p>Trend</p>
<p>Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p>Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutra</strong>l– trading range 1170-1225.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~ Neutra</strong>l– &nbsp; Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1212-1222 2nd tier 1228-1231</p>
<p>Support 1189-1195 2nd tier 1178-1183</p>
<p>The last update listed resistance at 1205-1212 and the high was 1215. Support was listed at 1189-1195 and the low was 1200.</p>
<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Resistance on Wednesday will be the 1214-1222.. &nbsp;Support is 1189-1195 and 1178-1183. &nbsp;. &nbsp;We remain in a trade range of 1175-1225. As long as we are in the trade range, it can go either way.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GOlHrly30April2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><strong>CYCLES</strong></p>
<p>The next short term cycle is due May 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;The window for a turn opens after the Thursday close.</p>
<p>It’s not often, but with this much of a choppy mess we are hard pressed to decipher the current rotation. &nbsp;It’s a coin toss at this point.</p>
<p>A close above the red line and the 200 day average near 1230 would argue for a short term&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GolCyc30APR2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="711" height="451" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Term – Bullish</p>
<p>Moving averages - 175.05 -172.71</p>
<p>The moving averages withstood the pullback test so far but the high yesterday reversed and closed on the low. That still leaves the direction ambiguous. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/HUI4hr29Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>NUGT</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Trend –Bullish</p>
<p>Moving Averages – 11.54 – 11.24</p>
<p>It’s the same with NUGT. &nbsp; We closed above 13 but reversed lower. &nbsp;The trend is still up but be cautious.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/NUGT4hr29Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1210 – 1230</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.</p>
<p>The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. &nbsp;THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Seasonal factors are positive for gold in April-May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction.&nbsp;</p>
<p>We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.</p>
<p>The moving averages on the chart is resistance at 1210-1230. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. &nbsp;Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. &nbsp;The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/XGLDwkly29Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 115.10 – 115.12 – NEUTRAL</p>
<p>Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase. &nbsp;This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13</p>
<p>GLD &nbsp;(like gold) is a trading nightmare at the moment of sideways erratic movement. &nbsp;Until things give trending indication, its best to be patient. &nbsp;Resistance is 119-120 and support at 112-113.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GLD4hr29Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend 19.66 – 19.47 ~ Bullish</p>
<p>GDX intermediate term remains bullish.</p>
<p>Resistance is at 21.50 – 23.00. &nbsp; Any close below the moving averages takes GDX out of short term bull mode.</p>
<p>GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GDX4hr29Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>The FOMC results yielded nothing. &nbsp;The direction is still not certain.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop.</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3322727
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3322727Bill DowneyWed, 29 Apr 2015 16:17:33 GMTThe Fed bottom line is to try and keep the US dollar in check<p><strong><img title="Launch www.GoldTrends.net" alt="Launch www.GoldTrends.net" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/WebCreative/GT-Logo-450x73-Trans.png" x="0" y="0" border="0" height="73" width="450">&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p><strong><font size="5">INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ April 29 2015</font></strong></p>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">The FOMC statement comes out near 2 PM EST.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">The bottom line is the Fed does not want a higher dollar at this time and with the sagging global economy and US signs of weakness, the Fed will do the best it can to maintain credibility on the longer term but at the same time, &nbsp;odds favor they will be dovish on the short term.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">The chart shows the long term channel line where they are trying to cap the rise. &nbsp;They want to avoid the USD going above that channel line. &nbsp;We have been favoring a correction in the USD since we’ve reached this long term trend line.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Weekly/USDollarLongTermChannelMarch2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="693" height="448" border="0"><br></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Ordinarily we would expect gold to catapult higher on a weakening dollar and the last 4 days have seen the 2nd biggest drop in 6 years in the USD. &nbsp;Gold however is pretty much at the same price area as it was a week ago, emphasizing just how bizarre this market is acting.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">1st Support on the USD is this area in the 93.50-94.50 area and then at 89.50-92.50.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/USD29April2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">The overall trading range of 1175-1225 for April is still in effect. &nbsp;Until we resolve either way things remain a choppy mess. &nbsp; &nbsp;Resistance is the 1215-1225 area and then 1232-1239. &nbsp; Support is the 1198-1202 area and then 1183-1190. &nbsp; Keep in mind the FOMC statement will be out near 2PM EST and then we’ll see what the control boyz decide to do with price. &nbsp; The bulls have a slight advantage, and the odds for a pop to 1220-1225 and potentially up to 1240 should come into play. &nbsp;We say should because gold should be rallying harder than it has based on the US dollar action.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Gol8Hr29Apr2015Intra.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Silver</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">As you can see silver has been in a trading range all year so far in the 1550-1800 area.</font>
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<font face="Verdana" size="4">Support on the short term in silver is the 1580-1610 area and resistance is the 1687-1720 area. &nbsp;The bulls have a slight advantage at the moment. &nbsp;And while nothing is for certain in this trade range, a push to 1690-1725 could be in the offing. &nbsp;Any close below 1580 cancels that scenario. &nbsp;</font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3321664
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3321664Bill DowneyFri, 24 Apr 2015 16:09:32 GMTGold on the verge of a breakdown if we move much lower than today<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="font-family: Verdana;">Gold Long Term Chart</strong><br></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">On a few occasions recently, we have been discussing the LONG TERM 2005 channel line and the action at that channel line in our view is what is causing a tight trading range as gold now has to make the decision of the next medium term move as to up or down. &nbsp;With the last five bars not being able to do anything more than hold the line, &nbsp;and with April having the smallest monthly price range we have seen in a long time, &nbsp;odds (as we have been saying) that a good sized move in gold arrives soon. &nbsp; The action at the channel line does favor the downside will win and gold’s last leg down before the bottom should get underway. &nbsp; The only exception is if the month of May can close above the highs of April. &nbsp;We have odds but never absolutes in markets. &nbsp;Gold can certainly hold here and turn higher but the odds are against that. &nbsp; A weekly close below 1172 will favor 1155-1163 on Monday and if we lose that, new bear market lows should be expected for gold. &nbsp; The next key support for gold (not shown on this chart) is 1080-1100 and then near 1000. &nbsp;Without getting into detail on this report, odds favor the bear market low in gold will be near 875. &nbsp;The only other exception we see is perhaps 990-1040.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Short term</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The seasonal rally (Mid-March to Mid-May) gave us one push that lasted just three week and since then gold is sideways. &nbsp;Thus the seasonal is WEAK as it has been each year since the bear market began and it’s looking like it’s going to be the same this year as well, especially if we lose the trend line we discussed above.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Resistance now moves to 1194-1206 and support near 1172. &nbsp; A close below 1172 leaves only 1155-1163 as support before new lows. &nbsp; I suspect we’ll get a small bounce at 1130 but odds favor it will be just that. &nbsp; If we do close below 1172 then the trading range we’ve been in favors a resolve to the downside. &nbsp;That low spike on the chart near 1170 on January 5th and the 1160 print low during the week of March 16th to the 23rd is last support in gold before new lows. &nbsp; In summary, the short term has to hold here. &nbsp;A close below 1172 favors lower into the 1st week of May.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Whenever we go into a narrow trading range like we’ve witnessed where we just go back and forth from 1180-1225, &nbsp;it makes the short term cycle turns difficult to interprit as opposed to when we are trending. &nbsp;A close below 1170-1172 will favor a cycle inversion and a low into the first week of May.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">We believe the tight trading range is due to the BIG decision gold has to make at that 2005 trend line shown on the first chart in this report. &nbsp;For those who think a Greek exit is gold bullish we remind you of the aftermath of Cyprus when gold collapsed a short while later. &nbsp;For the record we were not BULLISH on gold then due to that event and we feel the same about Greece. &nbsp;We don’t see it as a bullish event. &nbsp; And we don’t mean the day after it happens but overall. &nbsp; We expect the liquidity squeeze we have been saying is coming for three years will have the same effect as 2008 did. &nbsp; While its not guaranteed that gold will go down, it is the odds favorite. &nbsp; As far as the global meltdown, its as close to guaranteed as it gets. &nbsp;The only greater guarantee is death and taxes.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Granted 2008 was just a DEMO using the corporate world to see what would happen when the Global one takes place. &nbsp;And it is expected to do the same. &nbsp; Gold will crash along with everything else and the true bull market in gold will only return after the crash. &nbsp;The loss of confidence in the system will trigger the end of low rates, and the bond markets 300 year low in interest &nbsp;rates will have completed. &nbsp;That’s when the gold turn most likely occurs. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">On the short term cycle chart we’ve removed some of the higher lines for today and added a few lower ones which we normally don’t. &nbsp; This is just for the purpose of identifying where minor and important support is on the downside. &nbsp; The low at the end of March and the high at the beginning of April were both within the “window” of time for that blue cycle. &nbsp; It could have produced either. &nbsp;However the failure to move higher on the last red cycle and the fact we are breaking below the lows of that time, &nbsp;odds now favor a close below 1170-1172 means the next cycle turn (blue) due May 3rd will be a low.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">If silver breaks its support line look for 1500-1525 as next support and then 1450. &nbsp;Any close below 1450 favors 1300.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3315510
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3315510Bill DowneyWed, 22 Apr 2015 12:35:37 GMTGold charts along with HUI, GDX and NUGT.<p><strong>Gold Daily Report ~ April 22 2015</strong></p>
<p><strong>Trend</strong></p>
<p><strong>Long Term ~ Bearish</strong>-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.</p>
<p><strong>Medium Term ~ Bearish</strong>– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.</p>
<p><strong>Intermediate Term ~ Neutral</strong>– trading range 1170-1225.</p>
<p><strong>Short Term ~ Neutra</strong>l– Next short term cycle begins Tuesday/Wednesday into May 3rd. &nbsp;Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.</p>
<p>Initial Resistance 1209-1214 2nd tier 1219-1226</p>
<p>Support 1182-1193 2nd tier 1165-1175</p>
<p>Resistance on the last update was listed at 1207-1214 and the high was 1204. &nbsp;Support was listed 1182-1193 and the low was 1193.</p>
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<p><strong>ECB Prepares To Sacrifice Greek Banks With 50% Collateral Haircut</strong></p>
<p>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2015&nbsp;</p>
<p>In what seems like a coincidental retaliation for Greece's pivot to Russia (and following Greece's initiation of capital controls), the supposedly independent European Central Bank has decided suddenly that - after dishing out €74 billion of emergency liquidity to the Greek National Bank to fund its banks - as The NY Times reports, the value of the collateral that Greek banks post at their own central bank to secure these loans be reduced by as much as 50%, and the haircut scould increase if negotiations with Europe remain at an impasse. As we detailed earlier, this is about as worst-case-scenario for Greece as is 'diplomatically' possible currently, and highlights an increasingly hard line by The ECB toward The Greeks as the move will leave banks hard-pressed to survive.</p>
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<p><strong>The Mystery Of China's Gold Holdings Is Coming To An End</strong></p>
<p>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2015&nbsp;</p>
<p>While the reality is that nobody has a clue what China's actual gold holdings are, the good news is that the answer is coming. As noted above, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has asked the head of the International Monetary Fund to include China's yuan currency in its special drawing rights (SDR) basket. &nbsp;If indeed China is serious about CNY inclusion in the SDR, it will finally have to reveal its cards, which would mean it finally will provide an update, with a 6 year delay, of just what its latest gold holdings are. As such, don't be surprised to wake up one morning to headlines blasting that Chinese gold holdings have gone up by 2x, 3x, 5x or (more x) since 2009, a long-overdue update which will catalyze the next major leg higher in the precious metal.</p>
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<p><strong>Copper Plunge Continues Despite Chinese Stimulus</strong></p>
<p>Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2015 -</p>
<p>Since China unleashed its latest (and greatest since 2008) RRR cut, stock prices have surged amid the liquidity hype. However, perhaps more indicative of the underlying reality of just what good an RRR cut will do to a debt-saturated economy full of weak credits thanks to tumbling asset prices, copper prices have now plunged over 6% in the last 2 days.</p>
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<p><strong>Gold Short term</strong></p>
<p>Once again there is no change to the short term as gold remains in a trade range of 1175-1225. &nbsp;Resistance today is 1209-1214 and then 1225-1231. &nbsp;Support 1182-1192. &nbsp; Until we close above 1212 or under 1180, things are on hold.</p>
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<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/Gol8Hr22April2015.gif" title="Gold price charts since 2015 low" alt="Gold price charts since 2015 low" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></p>
<p>Thus the next two week cycle is underway. &nbsp;Keep in mind that gold is stuck in a trading range and the last cycle just stayed sideways. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>We need to break above or below this 1175-1225 trading range.</p>
<p>If we hold the lower dual red support line and the green area of yearly support IN THE 1172-1182 &nbsp;AREA &nbsp;holds and price turns back up and closes above the black dual trend line, we’ll favor that gold is going to move higher. &nbsp;If we don’t pullback and move above the black dual trend line higher first, then we’ll favor a move to the 1225 area and up to 1231 (200 day average) and then we’ll see. &nbsp;If gold can conquer that area, then odds will favor gold moves higher towards 1240-1255. &nbsp;</p>
<p>ANY CLOSE BELOW the dual lower red line and under 1158-1163 will favor a CYCLE inversion and lower prices into the 1st week of May. &nbsp;The 1207-1212 area is resistance and a close above there favors 1225. &nbsp;Support is 1172-1182 and also 1188-1192. &nbsp;Those are the two area’s for a potential low on Tuesday. &nbsp;In summary, the next short term cycle begins now.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GolCyc20Apr2015Home.gif" title="gold cycles" alt="gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>HUI</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Term – Bullish</p>
<p>Moving averages 170.68 -169.57</p>
<p>Up until last week the pattern since the low was choppy and overlapping. &nbsp;However since the April 1st low, price has taken on a more defined uptrend. &nbsp; Perhaps the gold stocks are giving us a clue that the new short term gold cycle into the 1st week of May is going to be an up scenario. &nbsp;We need a close above 185 in order to favor price will head to the gold downtrend line near 195. &nbsp;In summary, short term gold stocks are favored higher into next week. &nbsp; Any close below 168 cancels that scenario.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/HUI4hr21Apr2015.gif" title="HUI gold stock price index" alt="HUI gold stock price index" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
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<p><strong>NUGT</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate Trend –Bullish</p>
<p>Moving Averages – 11.01 - 10.94</p>
<p>In order to take out the last two highs on the chart, NUGT needs a close above 13.00. &nbsp;It has held the moving averages and is probing above that channel line. &nbsp;Unlike the HUI, NUGT’s pattern remains choppy and overlapping. &nbsp;That type of pattern warns us it’s a countertrend move and while it can continue higher, caution is urged. &nbsp;</p>
<p>That would put the 1st target at the 16 dollar area and then we’ll have to see. &nbsp;In summary, for NUGT, watch that trend line and a CLOSE ABOVE 13.00. &nbsp;We got the trendline, now do we get 13.00? &nbsp;That’s where price needs to overcome. &nbsp;ANYTHING LESS THAN THAT and price can turn lower still. &nbsp;On the downside, the moving average and price are at the trend line and that’s the line in the sand. &nbsp;As long as NUGT is above both the bulls have the advantage.</p>
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<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/NUGT4hr21Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>Gold Medium Term</strong></p>
<p>Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361</p>
<p>Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481</p>
<p>Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1213 – 1233</p>
<p>The medium term trend remains down and takes a weekly close above 1225-1255 in order to move the reading to neutral. Until that time, we can’t eliminate the downtrend.</p>
<p>The yearly pivot is 1172-1182. Above 1182 gives the bulls a slight edge. But it goes right back to the bears on closes below 1172. Keep that in mind. &nbsp;THAT’s THE YEARLY OPENING RANGES in price and it is the point where gold is either HIGHER or LOWER on the year. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Seasonal factors are positive for gold in April-May but they only perform when we are in a bull trend reaction. Since the 1142 low last week, things look good, but the real test has not come yet. It will at 1205-1211 and 1222-1225 next. We need two weekly closes above 1225 to begin to reverse the downtrend on the medium term.</p>
<p>The moving averages on the chart is the next resistance. The triple green channel line is the Bull/bear line. Price must recover and make that triple line support and not resistance in order to turn the trend up. &nbsp;Until then, odds favor price should reach the lower trend lines on the chart. &nbsp;The next one is near the 1080-1100 area.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/XGLDwkly21Apr2015.gif" title="gold weekly price chart" alt="gold weekly price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
<p><strong>GOLD ETF GLD</strong></p>
<p>Moving Average Trend ~ 115.16 – 115.08 – Bullish</p>
<p>Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20/13</p>
<p>While GLD CLOSED BELOW THE MOVING AVERAGES price found support just under it at the trend line and we are right back where we were a couple of days ago. &nbsp;The trend however, is just barely bullish. &nbsp;A close above 116 would favor an upside test of resistance at 117.50 and perhaps to the dual lines at 119-120. &nbsp;For the moment, we wait to exit this trade range.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GLD4hr21Apr2015.gif" title="Gold ETF GLD price chart" alt="Gold ETF GLD price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>GDX</strong></p>
<p>Intermediate term Trend 19.30 – 19.23 ~ Bullish</p>
<p>GDX intermediate term remains bullish now since and as long as we hold the support point (moving averages), &nbsp;favor GDX will challenge resistance at 21.50 – 23.00. &nbsp; Any close below the moving averages cancels that scenario.</p>
<p>To a certain extent, GDX is stuck in a long trading range between 17 and 23.</p>
<p>&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GDX4hr21Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="621" height="384" border="0"></p>
<p><strong>What next?</strong></p>
<p>Look for resistance at 1209-1214 and if exceeded, then 1222-1232.</p>
<p>On the downside any close below 1172 favors lower price into the 1st week of May.</p>
<p>The next short term cycle is underway and if it plays out, we should see gold bottom here and develop higher into next week. &nbsp; When the gold lows are made on the blue cycle, it’s a bullish rotation. &nbsp; When it makes its low on the red cycle, price rallies but odds are that it’s just a bounce. &nbsp;Also, the red cycles are LESS reliable on lows than the blue cycle. &nbsp; In the past there have been some instances where price fails at a resistance area and turns down until the next cycle. &nbsp;It’s not often but it does happen.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Line</strong></p>
<p>There is a lot of uncertainly with liquidity as well as the potential of a Greek exit. &nbsp; The last time we had a liquidity squeeze (the 2008 crash), gold fell along with everything else but was the first to bottom and a strong rally from 680 to 1900 took place over the next 2.5 years. &nbsp; Thus on the short term there’s not much we can do but wait.</p>
<p>While the medium term trend is down, the medium term moving averages are actually arriving near where 1st resistance resides (1215-1235). &nbsp;In a regular correction off a bear market, a monthly close above those numbers would most often be enough to turn the tide. &nbsp;But this is no ordinary correction. &nbsp;Gold has two major roadblocks above the averages. &nbsp;The downtrend dual gold channel lines give resistance near 1255-1295. &nbsp; For a trend change price needs to conquer those lines and make them support. &nbsp;That would favor the correction in gold is over. &nbsp;(There are a few other things we’ll look for to seek out additional confirmation when the time arrives). &nbsp;</p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3312247
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3312247Bill DowneyMon, 20 Apr 2015 18:30:58 GMTGold getting ready for a good sized move<p style="white-space: nowrap;"><font style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><span style="">Charts and analysis follows the article.</span><br></strong></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Is The Global Financial System On The Brink Of Collapse?</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">April 17, 2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">A reverse repurchase agreement, also called a “reverse repo” or “RRP,” is an open market operation in which the Desk sells a security to an eligible RRP counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Last week’s article headline: IMF tells regulators to brace for global ‘liquidity shock’&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The financial news spin-doctors are attributing Friday’s abrupt sell-off to a report of a Bloomberg terminal outage and to a report that China has expanded its list of stocks available for shorting. &nbsp; This explanation for the plunge in stocks globally is so absurd it almost leaves me speechless.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">I have been postulating since mid-December that the strange volatility we've been experiencing in the markets – combined with the most intensive effort I've ever seen by the Plunge Protection Team (the Fed + the Treasury’s Working Group on Financial Markets) to prop up the stock market and keep a manipulative cap on gold – is occurring because there’s is a massive derivatives melt-down going on behind the scenes. &nbsp;The volatility reflects the turmoil and the market intervention in stocks and precious metals reflects the effort to keep the problem covered up.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">But a good friend and colleague showed me graph this morning that shows my thinking about a derivatives collapse may be correct. &nbsp;(GoldTrends has put the gold price in the graph).</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">That graph shows the Fed’s Reverse Repurchase Agreement operations with foreign Central Banks and big foreign banks. &nbsp; A reverse repo is an operation which generally is thought of as being used as a tool to remove short term liquidity from the banking system. &nbsp;However, as you can see from the timing of the first massive spike up, which occurred in early September 2008, it is an absurd notion to think the Fed would have removed liquidity from the system. (Note: &nbsp;the second spike up in 2011 coincided with the Fed’s “Operation Twist” which was essentially a huge QE extension disguised with a “twist” – but nonetheless was done to keep the system from collapsing).</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">No, instead the massive operation was conducted to INJECT Treasury collateral into the global banking system. &nbsp;Treasuries are used as collateral against derivatives positions. &nbsp;It’s in a sense margin collateral for the big boys. &nbsp; When an entity (typically a bank or hedge fund) takes on a derivatives bet, it needs to post collateral to protect the counterparty from a decline in the value of the bet. &nbsp;Treasuries are the de rigeur collateral, although the ECB now allows everything for collateral except loans to lemonade stands.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">When the value of the derivatives bet declines because the value of the underlying asset declines (think: &nbsp;Greek debt, oil debt), more collateral has to posted. &nbsp;Eventually, the market runs out of collateral and there’s a collateral short squeeze. &nbsp;The use of hypothecation exacerbates the situation by several multiples. &nbsp;Please note that Zero-hedge intermittently reports big spikes up in Treasury settlement fails. &nbsp;This reflects the extreme shortage of collateral. &nbsp;When collateral has been posted but not hypothecated, it can be called and used for settlement. &nbsp;When that Treasury has been hypothecated by the custodian of the collateral, it becomes harder to call, especially when it’s been hypothecated several times. &nbsp;Big spikes up in settlement fails occur.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Circling back to my postulation that a massive, ongoing derivatives melt-down has started, as the derivatives lose value, more Treasury collateral has to be posted. &nbsp;When the situation becomes extreme, collateral isn't posted and counter parties begin to fail, especially if the counterparty can’t come up with the cash needed to remedy a derivatives bet gone bad. &nbsp; My bet is that the Greece situation ignited the problem and the collapse in the price of oil threw millions of gallons of napalm on the situation.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The reason I believe this explanation is correct, is from the graph above. &nbsp; We know that in 2008 we were told that a big derivatives accident started in Europe and spread to the U.S. &nbsp;Lehman filed for Chap 11 on Sept 11, 2008. &nbsp; &nbsp;We also know that AIG and Goldman experienced a massive counter party default collapse in September 2008 that was remedied thanks to rather explicit lies circulated by Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson about systemic collapse if TARP wasn’t approved.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">A reverse repo can be looked at as tool to remove liquidity from the system OR as a tool to inject Treasury collateral into the system. &nbsp;We know the Fed has been “testing” a new Reverse Repo system since mid-2013 that take Treasuries from its “SOMA” holdings (SOMA = the Treasuries the Fed purchased with QE) and use them for reverse repos, including reverse repos with MONEY MARKET FUNDS and foreign central banks/ Too Big To Fail banks. &nbsp;Nothing happens by accident and that spike above shows us why the Fed was “testing” a new reverse repo system.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The only reason the Fed would need to inject massive amounts of Treasuries into the global banking system is because there’s an extreme shortage. &nbsp;A massive derivatives accident requiring massive amounts of collateral to be posted has developed. &nbsp;If Treasuries are not available to post as collateral, while at the same time a massive amount of hypothecated (Treasuries out on loan, several times over) collateral fails are occurring, it will cause the banking system to seize up. &nbsp;The giant spike up shown in the graph above is occurring because the Fed is engaging in an enormous reverse repo operation in order to prevent the global financial system from collapsing.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Remember I suggested some time ago that the elitists like give us a warning before something bad is about to happen. &nbsp; As my colleague John Titus states: &nbsp;“the true elite aristocracy are polite criminals – they consider it gauche to flush the toilet while we’re in the shower without giving us a heads up.”</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">This is why the IMF issued this warning Thursday for the financial media to publish:</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The so-called ‘flash crash’ on US bond markets last October and the collapse of the Swiss currency floor in January showed how quickly liquidity can vanish, acting as “a powerful amplifier of financial stability risks.” &nbsp; &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">This was the article headline last week ---- IMF tells regulators to brace for global ‘liquidity shock’.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">I guarantee that the reason for this is unequivocally NOT because the Chinese Government is letting the public short a few more stock issues OR because Bloomberg experienced a widespread terminal outage. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">(end of article...&amp; thanks to Dave Kransler)</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Technicals</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Chart</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Gold is on the verge of making a decisive move as it has meandered at this long term trend line for 5 months near 1200. &nbsp;A weekly close below 1158-1163 would favor new lows and a move below the trend line. &nbsp; On the upside, we need a close above 1225 (resistance) then 1234 (200 day moving average) and then a monthly close above 1255-1272 to neutralize the downtrend. &nbsp; The bottom line is a good sized move is highly favored to transpire soon. &nbsp;The direction has not yet been decided. &nbsp; The numbers above are the guide. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Weekly/GoldMon2005UptrendLine_42MonthsApril2015.gif" title="Gold long term trend line from 2005 price chart" alt="Gold long term trend line from 2005 price chart" width="690" height="445" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Short term</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Resistance is the 1212-1222 area and 1234-1244. &nbsp;Support is the 1182-1192 area and 1166-1172. &nbsp;The trading range of 1175-1225 should be coming to an end soon. &nbsp;We need a close above 1225 to favor higher prices. &nbsp;Resistance would then become 1234 (200 day average), and 1239-1244 (Fibonacci retracements). &nbsp;The perfect scenario would be for one more drop to the lower dual support channel line and then a reaction higher towards 1240. &nbsp;The lower line test would be best as an intraday test affair with gold holding the 1172-1182 buy the closing price of the day. &nbsp;We have noted for a good three weeks now that 1225 on the upside and 1172 on the downside were the levels that had to be taken out to confirm a move. &nbsp; As you can see, we are still in that holding pattern. &nbsp;Once decided, a good move is due to develop. &nbsp; A close below 1188 today would favor lower prices on Tuesday. &nbsp;It takes a close above 1212 to begin to favor the bulls.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Gol8HrApril202015.gif" title="Gold price chart since 2014 low" alt="Gold price chart since 2014 low" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The next cycle turn is due April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means that tomorrow (Tuesday) is the last day the cycle window is open. &nbsp;Thus the next two week trend is about to get going. &nbsp;If the rotation label is correct then gold should be making a cycle low and higher prices will be favored into the first week of May. &nbsp;A close below 1158-1163 (below the lower channel line will suggest a cycle inversion is taking place and will favor a drop instead of a rally to May. &nbsp;Odds are about 75% that we’ll make a low and move up. &nbsp; Remember, odds are not absolutes, and although most of the cycles work, some do not. &nbsp;Thus any probe to 1172-1182 that holds and closes back above 1192 should begin to favor we've made a low.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolCyc20April2015.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Silver</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silvers new weekly low seems to suggest that prices may want to be making a low for April and a re-flex rally back to the first week of May could be in the cards. &nbsp;A close below 1520 would allow for further drops. &nbsp;With the global situation becoming unraveled we need to be very careful. &nbsp;If we reach the lower channel line and reverse back up to close above 1609 in the next day or so, it would be the first clue that a two week bounce could ensue.</font></font>
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<font><font face="Verdana"><span style="font-size: 12px; white-space: nowrap;">ANY BANK&nbsp;CONTAGION&nbsp;or GREEK PANIC news and the potential for silver to buckle must be respected. &nbsp;The trend remains down but with the cycle turn due here, it warrants watching for a turn. &nbsp;</span></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Sil8Hr20April202015.gif" title="Silver price chart" alt="Silver price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></strong></font></font>
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<p style="white-space: nowrap;"><strong><br></strong></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3309375
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3309375Bill DowneyThu, 16 Apr 2015 19:18:24 GMTCentral Banker meeting on Gold Friday 2 years to the week since gold crash of 2013<p><span style=""><font style="font-size: 12px;">We have discussed many avenues on our website as to the coming liquidity squeeze. &nbsp; The first clue to this is the soaring US dollar vs other currencies. &nbsp; &nbsp;But as we have advocated, the real bubble and the burst coming is the global bond market as rates have reached by most measures, 300 year lows.</font></span></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Cyprus was a trial balloon for a sovereign debt default of the banking system, and now the question of who will reign in Euro land --- the ECB or Greece is arriving at full circle as time is quickly running out and both sides are holding firm to most demands from the other. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>So naturally, what would one expect from the Greek bond market?</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Greek Bonds Tumble On News IMF Rejected "Unofficial" Greek Request To Delay Payment</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">"Greek officials have made an informal approach to the International Monetary Fund to delay repayments of loans to the international lender," FT reports. Knowing it faces the rather untenable choice between paying the IMF or paying public sector wages and pensions, Athens attempted to "shuffle" its payment schedule around to no avail. Yields on GGBs spiked as the now openly insolvent Greece stares into the drachma abyss.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>And what does Europe think ?</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Contagion Arrives: European Peripheral Bond Risk Soars</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Just yesterday, German FinMin Schaeuble bent the truth, proclaiming that there was no sign of contagion from Grexit concerns. Today, it appears, he will be eating his words, as Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond spreads have exploded higher (up 15-30bps this week) amid the collapse of Greek sovereign and bank bonds. All we need now is for some EU leader to claim "Grexit risk is contained," and we know trouble is ahead.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Meanwhile back in USA, we our outlook for a higher US Dollar since May of 2014 has certainly come to pass. &nbsp; But the side of that forecast we surmised was if the US dollar was given enough room to the upside, it would eventually bring down the US economy as well. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>But as for the US economy………………</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Philly Fed Limps Higher After "Weather" Crash, New Orders Tumble To 2 Year Lows</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">After crashing from November to January (oh that's just weather), the Philly Fed factory index has failed to do anything but limp higher in the last 3 months. Printing at 7.5 in April (slightly better than the expected 6.0, Philly Fed continues to hover around 1 year lows. The post-weather rebound is entirely missing as New Orders plunged to 2 year lows (though employment surged) with more firms reporting price decreases than reporting price increases.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The Changing World Of Work 4: The "Signal" Value Of Credentials Is Eroding</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Conformity and being able to navigate stifling bureaucracies no longer creates value or helps employers solve real-world problems. This is why college graduates can send out hundreds of resumes and not even receive a single reply, much less an interview or job offer. An entire new feedback loop of accreditation is needed...</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Housing Starts and Permits Miss Badly As "Warm Weather" Rebound Fails To Materialize</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The Department of Commerce reported March starts and permits data, which after the February collapse was expected by everyone to rebound strongly because, well, it didn't snow as much in March as it did in February. Apparently it did, because not only did Housing Starts miss massively, and just as bad as in February, printing at 926K, on expectations of a 1.040MM rebound from last month's revised 908K.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Initial Jobless Claims Miss By Most In 2 Months, Continuing Claims Collapse To Lowest Since Dec 2000</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">After last week's plunge to cycle lows, initial jobless claims jumped 12k from a revised 282k to 294k, back above the average for the year. The trend of falling claims has now ended as it appears the end of government fiscal year and QE3 signaled the end of the claims collapse.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Of course not everyone is hurting………………….</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Goldman Reports Best Quarter In Four Years, "Average" Employee Paid $381,948</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The one TBTF "bank" which unabashedly admits it is just a taxpayer backstopped hedge fund printing money for its owners (while supervising the NY Fed and all other central banks with various former employees in charge) with no actual lending or depository operations, Goldman Sachs, just hit it out of the park, when moments ago it reported Q1 earnings that smashed both top and bottom-line expectations, with revenues of $10.62 billion, up 13.8% from last year, and EPS of $6.00 printing far above the expected $9.31bn and $4.26. This was the best revenue generating quarter for Goldman since Q1 2011, or in four years.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>The plan has been to raise rates now for over ½ year, but they can’t in fear of a higher US dollar….</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Fed's Fischer Says Fed Can't Be "On Hold For Ever", Spooks Bonds &amp; Bullion</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Fed vice-chair Fischer speaks and markets must show that what he says is important. Shortly after uttering the following:</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">*FISCHER: MARKETS CAN'T DEPEND ON FED STAYING ON HOLD FOR EVER</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Bond yields spiked and gold and silver prices tumbled (because it's all about the signal). Stocks initially ignored his comments, but are starting to lose ground now.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>And following those statements later in the day………………………….</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Dollar Dump Sends Oil, Bonds &amp; Stocks Surging</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The sudden decision to buy EUR and dump USDs (after a slew of Fed speakers spewed their usual spew) has sparked a buy everything trade across markets as bonds, stocks, and crude are surging.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">(Thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the news headlines)</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Chart</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Gold reached resistance as listed last night 1209-1215 with a 1209 high and support 1192-1201 with an 1195 low today. &nbsp; Resistance remains 1209-1215 and support now is 1188-1195. &nbsp; The market remains very choppy between 1180 and 1220 as we enter into the final wait period for the next medium term move. &nbsp; A close above 1215 will favor 1224-1234 for a price level and a close below 1192 &nbsp;will favor a test of 1172-1182. &nbsp; Until then we’re in a trade range. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolHrly16Aprikl2015Intra.gif" title="Gold hourly chart" alt="Gold hourly chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong><br></strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The window for the next short term cycle is open and will remain open until Tuesday of next week. &nbsp; Odds favor prices should begin a two week move higher into the 1st week of May. &nbsp; However we do want to warn about one thing.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Apparently there is a big meeting with the central bankers on Friday and supposedly the subject is gold. &nbsp;The meeting was big enough for the ECB to hold their Thursday meeting yesterday in order to attend this meeting. &nbsp; &nbsp;Its exactly 2 years to the WEEK that Obama met with bankers and then all of a sudden gold crashed and dropped some 200 dollars an ounce in the course of two days in what came to be known as the crash of 2013. &nbsp; With that in mind we want to be on the lookout for a possible dump early next week and a potential cycle inversion that would add another two weeks to the downside. &nbsp; &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">While the cycle turn is April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours), &nbsp;we also need to pay attention Monday as that is the 1st day of trade after the cycle. &nbsp; &nbsp;We know a big move is brewing and while we feel it will be to the downside, &nbsp;its best to allow the market to guide us. &nbsp;IF we close above that dual resistance line near 1210 then look for a rally to the gold trend line and near 1234 (the 200 day average) and then we’ll see. &nbsp;Any close below 1163-1172 favors the downtrend is in force again. &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolCyc16April2015Intra.gif" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong><br></strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Silver</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong><br></strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver has support at 1598-1608 and then 1575-1585. &nbsp; Resistance is the 1650-1666 area and &nbsp;then 1687-1705. &nbsp;The short term trend remains down and needs a close above 1666 to neutralize it. &nbsp; Until we close above 1666 favor the bears at the moment. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
</div><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/SilHrly16April2015Intra.gif" title="Silver hourly price chart" alt="Silver hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br></font></font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3304245
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3304245Bill DowneyMon, 13 Apr 2015 15:35:19 GMTGold resistance remains the 1225-1235 area<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><span style=""><strong>Wall Street Reacts To China's Shocking Trade Data</strong></span><br></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/13/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Everyone was shocked by yesterday's Chinese March trade update which showed that while imports slid largely as expected, it was the 15% drop in exports, the largest in over a year, that prompted many to wonder just how big the global trade slump really is, masked by what has now become pervasive, global QE. This was the worst performance, exports and imports combined, since late 2009.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>China Stocks Soar To 7 Year High After Collapse In Exports;</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/13/2015 &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">If there was any doubt that global trade is stalling, it was promptly wiped out following the latest abysmal Chinese trade data which saw exports tumble by 15% - the most in over a year - on expectations of a 8% rebound, with the trade surplus coming in at CNY18.2 billion, far below the lowest estimate. While unnecessary, with the Chinese GDP growth rate this Wednesday already expect to print at a record low, this was further evidence of weak demand both at home and abroad. Weakness was seen in most key markets, and the strength of China's currency was partly to blame, which again brings up China's CNY devaluation and ultimately QE, which as we wrote some time ago, is the ultimate endgame in the global reflation trade which, at least for now until the CBs begin active money paradropping to everyone not just the 0.01%, is only leading to inflation in stocks and deflation in everything else</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><font face="Verdana">Proxy War Escalates: Russia Lifts Ban On Selling Anti-Aircraft Missiles To Iran</font></strong></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/13/2015</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">UPDATE: *RUSSIA WILL SUPPLY S-300 TO IRAN QUICKLY: INTERFAX</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">We showed yesterday the web of interconnected rifts and relationships among The Middle East's local and proxy war members and it seems this morning tensions are escalating once again. As Bloomberg reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday lifting a ban on the delivery of S-300 anti-missile rocket systems to Iran. The ban was introduced by former President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010 under pressure from the West following UN sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">(Thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above headlines)</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><strong><font face="Verdana">The dollar is negative for gold</font></strong></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The U.S. dollar, the world's reserve currency, is the pricing mechanism for all of the precious metals around the world. So far in 2015, gold has done well in most major currencies, with the exception of the dollar. The dollar has moved higher, and gold is virtually unchanged on the year. When the value of the U.S. currency strengthens, the value of all commodities tends to fall - there is a strong negative correlation between commodity prices and the value of the U.S. dollar. The dollar has rallied over 26% since last May - gold is only down 6.2% over the same period. It has been a great performance for gold in light of the strong dollar. Consider the price action of other commodities - crude oil more than halved in value since last May, copper is down around 12% and grains have plummeted, just as a few examples.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The strong dollar has not yet had a serious impact on the price of gold. The operative word is "yet." Perhaps low interest rates around the globe are keeping the yellow metal at current levels, providing support to its price. This is quite possible. However, when the U.S. Federal Reserve does eventually decide to commence raising rates, the party could end quickly for gold, and all of these divergences could correct very quickly. The current level and path of the U.S. currency, as well as the inevitability of higher short-term interest rates in the U.S. is a negative for the price of gold on a short to intermediate term. &nbsp;On a medium term basis, higher rates are what is needed for the gold bull to resume. &nbsp;But upon first rate increases, the spin masters will be selling gold to wipe out the remaining bulls. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The longer term picture on the chart below is the bottom line. &nbsp;If gold loses support in the 1140-1160 area then the next wave down for gold should be underway towards the 1000 area. &nbsp;We are at make or break levels here and after hanging around for five months here, gold is soon to make a decision. &nbsp;At the moment, the odds are stronger that there is one final wave down this year in gold. &nbsp; If the current seasonal move higher from the lows in March fails, odds are gold will trade down towards 1000. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Weekly/GoldMon2005UptrendLine_42MonthsApril2015.gif" title="Gold monthly price chart with long term support points" alt="Gold monthly price chart with long term support points" width="690" height="445" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Gold Chart short term</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Resistance as listed on the daily update last night at the website was 1209-1212 and that remains the case thru today as the high has been 1210. &nbsp;Support is back to the 1188-1192 area today as price is back below 1200.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">We sound like a broken record but until the 1225 area is taken out in gold, the downside still has potential. &nbsp; &nbsp;If we lose 1192 then look for 1172-1182 as the next support level. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Gol8Hr13Feb2015Intra.gif" title="Gold price chart" alt="Gold price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The next cycle is due April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;That means that the window for a turn opens on Wednesday. &nbsp; The problem is we still don’t know whether it turns out to be a low or high yet. &nbsp; As long as we remain in the 1175-1225 range, &nbsp;things can go either way. &nbsp; IF GOLD SELLS OFF THIS WEEK, then look for a low to rebound into early May. &nbsp; IF we move higher this week, then a peak is due and a pullback into the beginning of May. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Resistance is that 1225 area, but also the 200 day at 1234 will be resistance that gold will have to deal with also. &nbsp; The bottom line is until we close above that black dotted dual resistance line near 1225, the downside can still play out on this cycle. &nbsp; Any close below 1192 should favor prices move back to 1172-1182 and potentially 1158-1163. &nbsp; &nbsp;That’s what we have to work with at the moment.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolCyc13APril2015Intra.gif" title="gold cycles" alt="gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Silver</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver is even weaker than gold and support is now 1575-1605 with resistance at 1677-1697 and 1720-1750.&nbsp; A close below 1636 favors a test of above listed support. &nbsp; It’s a waiting game here too, but odds favor a decision is coming soon.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
</div><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/SIl8Hr13Apr2015Intra.gif" title="silver price chart" alt="silver price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3296448
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3296448Bill DowneyFri, 10 Apr 2015 15:26:15 GMTGold support and resistance price points for the short term<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><strong style="font-family: Verdana;">Gold Chart</strong><br></font></p>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Our forecast for a rally out of the last FOMC meeting was spot on target in price and time. &nbsp;The 2nd portion of our forecast has been for a seasonal bounce in April/May. &nbsp;So far the trend is still up from the FOMC low, but gold must close above 1222-1232 for the seasonal bounce to continue towards our next target of 1245-1275 to be reached. &nbsp; On the downside, a close below 1188 today would put the short term back in downtrend until the end of next week. &nbsp; It takes a close below 1158-1163 to cancel the seasonal uptrend currently in play with gold. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Friday favors 1205-1215 as the odds favored high point. &nbsp; Support is the 1192-1201 area. &nbsp; In summary, the upswing from the last FOMC meeting is still in play. &nbsp; Until we close above 1222-1232, a pullback towards 1172-1182 can’t be eliminated. &nbsp;As long as we are in the channel below, the short term uptrend is still intact. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolHrly10Apr2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Cycles</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">While we still don’t have a definitive answer to the coming April 18th cycle turn, &nbsp;we are very close to taking out that resistance line on the chart. &nbsp; It will then take a close above 1225 and then 1230 in order to confirm we have a blue cycle low rotation going on, but if we do close above that resistance line, it also will add to the upside potential that would favor the seasonal bounce we’ve been looking for and would suggest that price would move up to retest the upper resistance channel line on this chart. &nbsp; We’ll give the edge to the upside on a close above that resistance line where price is testing.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolCyc10APril2015Intra.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><strong>Silver</strong></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The uncertainty in short term metal also shows up on silver as unlike gold, the silver short term trend is bearish.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Resistance is 1675-1705 and support 1609-1625 &nbsp;for today.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;We suspect the global slowdown is affecting silver more than gold at the moment. &nbsp; Any close under 1580-1596 would be a bearish development for silver.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
</div><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Sil8Hr10April2015Intra.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3291527
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3291527Bill DowneyWed, 08 Apr 2015 15:38:49 GMTGold pulls back to 1200 in lieu of FOMC minutes release today<p><span style="">The Fomc minutes will be released today. &nbsp;Here are some notes;</span><br></p>
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<span style="">The previous meeting was construed as Dovish and Gold and Silver responded to the upside and rallied from 1150 to 1220 and silver from 1525 to 1725. &nbsp;While the market spin tells us lower rates are better for metals, we are not in that camp. &nbsp; Not at this point in the cycle. &nbsp; If that was true how then do we explain a 42 month bear market in gold? &nbsp; Before you answer, interest rates moved higher from 1968 to 1981 and gold from 1968 to 1980 in its biggest bull market ever. &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><br>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">We believe that gold will return to a bull market once the initial shock of higher rates are absorbed into the market. &nbsp; Yes, gold will tank when the first rate increases come but it will be a bear trap on the medium term. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The fed is forecasting slow growth and being data dependent, they keep saying higher rates are coming but not yet. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The bottom line is regardless of whether there is hawkish or dovish language, the control boyz can still do what they want. &nbsp; Hawkish will spark a sell-off in gold, but as you know, markets can reverse this activity and move higher. &nbsp; SOMEONE will find an explanation as to why. &nbsp; And really, they can do what they want on DOVISH data as well. &nbsp; They can spike it back to 1220-1225 and it can turn down from there later this week.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">As far as our view, we think that the FEDS do not want the US Dollar any higher and that threat is the biggest thing right now in the Global community. &nbsp; If that is the case, we think that even though they want to raise rates, the US dollar is keeping them at bay to do so. &nbsp;&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">On a bottom line basis, they don’t want to lose credibility but they don’t want a higher dollar. That suggests to me the minutes will have something for BOTH sides of the coin. &nbsp; They will say higher rates are coming, but they will also say that ITS LATER AND NOT NOW BECAUSE the economy is sluggish. &nbsp;Therefore, they will maintain the same story as we have been hearing. &nbsp; From there the control boyz will do what they need to clear the stops and will decide which way they take gold.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Lets go to the charts and check things out.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Gold short term</b></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b><br></b></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The support levels to watch are 1198-1202 then 1188-1194 and 1172-1182 with the latter being weekly support. &nbsp; It is possible that today will be the low for this week as its mid-week Wednesday. &nbsp;Resistance is the 1212-1215 area and 1219-1228. &nbsp; The 200 hour moving average at 1200 should/could find support before the FOMC at 1198-1202 and then we’ll have to see. &nbsp;They key here is we can't eliminate a move back to 1172-1182. &nbsp;Lets see what the control boyz decide after the FOMC.</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolHrly8Apr2015Intra.gif" title="Gold since the 2015 low price chart" alt="Gold since the 2015 low price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Gold Cycles</b></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Did we make a blue cycle low or a high on the chart ?</b></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The problem we have at the moment in the forecast is we are not sure if the cycles are in an UP or DOWN phase until April 18th and until we close above 1229, we cannot confirm higher until we get that close. &nbsp;If that occurs we would favor 1245-1272 in April. &nbsp;On the downside, we can’t eliminate a move back to 1172-1182. &nbsp; Any close below 1163 would favor lower prices into the next short term cycle of April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp; The bottom line is gold can still go either way at the moment and we can make a case for either side. &nbsp; If we do get a pullback to 1172-1182 we feel that it would be the low for this week. &nbsp; &nbsp;That doesn't eliminate the other supports listed that are higher and we’re going to have to be patient. The last red cycle was an easy read and subscribers traded long gold at 1159 to 1204 and silver from 1580 to 1724 on a short term trade. &nbsp;This time around, the cycle has not tipped or revealed its hand yet.&nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Bottom line --- until price gets above that 1220-1225 area where resistance resides, we can’t eliminate the downside. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">&nbsp;<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/GolCyc8APril2015Intra.gif" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Silver</b></font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver has support in the 1635-1655 area and resistance at 1725-1750. &nbsp; There is minor resistance at the moment at 1692-1705 but its not a game changer. &nbsp; A pullback to that lower red channel line is possible and then we’ll see. &nbsp;</font></font>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/SilHrly8Apr2015Intra.gif" title="Silver price chart" alt="Silver price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3287374
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3287374Bill DowneyTue, 07 Apr 2015 16:34:05 GMTDeflation, the velocity of Money, and Golds 1st price resistance on the short term<p><span style="">The Swiss Central Bank lost 50 billion Swiss francs on the Euro Peg.</span></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">The IMF has now recommended that Switzerland should DEVALUE the franc by increasing its money supply.<br>
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Deflation is still unfolding because people lack confidence in the future. As long as they remain uncertain about the future, they will continue to hoard their cash and that causes the velocity of money to decline further fueling the DEFLATION. &nbsp; The chart below is one I worked on in June of 2013. &nbsp; Nothing has changed as we are heading for a major liquidity crisis/debt default. &nbsp;Gold will return to the forefront when people begin to spend again or when they decide to EXCHANGE their collapsing currencies. &nbsp;<br></font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/VelocityOfMoney1929ToPresent.gif" title="Velocity of Money Chart" alt="Velocity of Money Chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br>
There is also a referendum that will come up with the idea that all credit decisions should be handed to the central bank now in Switzerland. If these people could not manage a peg, can you imagine what will happen to the entire credit markets?<br>
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The IMF sees the problem with the capital flows still moving from the Euro into the dollar and franc while Euro based assets shift within Europe to Germany.<br>
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The strong franc will no doubt cause the Swiss economy to turn negative as well as the rest of the world turns down even harder.<br>
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It is not Doom &amp; Gloom to pay attention and understand how things work.<br>
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You will not be able to warn someone who does not want to listen until they see it for themselves. In Europe, they see it and live it everywhere. In the States – we are not there yet. Guess what! That is also why gold is not yet ready to rally yet. This is not about what you “feel” or see yet, this is about what the MAJORITY sees and feels.<br>
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<b>Gold Chart</b><br>
Gold has reached 1st target resistance on a weekly basis again. This is the 4th test of 1222-1225 since the week of February 16th. Odds are high that gold will not hold another test of 1222-1225 and if tested, a breakout towards 1245-1272 can come in play. So far Tuesday is range bounce (as forecasted on last nights website). Support is 1205-1209 for the remainder of the day. The 1198 area is also support. Resistance is the 1215-1220 area.<br>
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ANY CLOSE ABOVE 1228 favors higher towards 1245-1272. If gold supports 1205-1207 the potential to retest the highs will remain. On the downside, support is 1195-1205. A close below 1195 favors lower towards 1172-1180.<br>
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<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Gol8hr7Apr2015Intra.gif" title="Gold price chart since the 2015 high" alt="Gold price chart since the 2015 high" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br>
<b>Gold Cycles</b><br>
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The Medium term Cycle turn (green) suggests a low is made and higher prices are favored but the short term cycle is the big question.<br>
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Did we make a blue cycle low on Thursday/Friday morning (when the cycle window opened) or did we just make the blue cycle high today (when the cycle window closed)? And that really is the dilemma we face with short term cycle direction. Last months red cycle turn allowed us to pull a good trade in gold and silver on the signals page. On this month’s turn, we have the opposite.<br>
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We have a situation where gold can go either way because the chart can interpret a blue cycle low (April 1st) or a Blue cycle high (April 6th). The only way we are going to get odds is when gold gets above 1229 and closes above that level also. That can lead to the 1245-1272 area as a 1st target on a cycle push higher.<br>
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But until we get above 1229 then the potential that we just made a blue cycle high and another test of yearly support can’t be ruled out. The best strategy then is to favor higher if gold gets above the dual black channel resistance line and re-enters into the UPTRENDING CHANNEL (with the fatter black dotted lines). That will favor higher into April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). If we don’t exceed resistance and pullback to the 1160-1180 area and hold into the 18th of the month, then odds will favor another push higher will begin then. In summary, A PUSH ABOVE 1229 GIVES THE BULLS THE ADVANTAGE. Gold has held 4 tests of resistance. ODDS ARE HIGH resistance won’t hold 5 times. The cycle window closes after the Tuesday close and the next short term cycle will be in play into the 18th.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/Daily/GolCyc6Apr2015.gif" title="Gold Cycle" alt="Gold Cycle" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br>
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Silver</b></font></font>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b><span style="">The silver weekly price targets/resistance of 1725-1750 has been hit for the 2nd week in a row. The 1635-1650 area is support and then the 1599-1609 area for this week. Any close above 1752 favor’s higher into next week. Any close below 1635 will favor lower.</span><br></b></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/April/IntraDay/Sil8Hr7Apr2015Intra.gif" title="Silver price chart" alt="Silver price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br></font></font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3285318
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3285318Bill DowneyWed, 01 Apr 2015 16:08:50 GMTNFP report due on Good Friday means low liquidity for gold's most volitile report<p><b style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;">Gold Overview</b></p>
<p style="display: inline !important;"><b><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><span style="">Odds favor that gold trades in the 1205-1211 region for the highs this week and the 1172-1182 area on the lows. 2nd Tier upside would be 1220-1225 and downside 1159-1166. The only time we see those numbers as a potential would be on Friday. That is when the Unemployment report (NFP) is published for the month. Usually that is when the biggest spikes in gold occur on either side and usually there is a trend that follows after that report.</span></font></font></b></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><span style="">With the Market closed for Good Friday and then Easter Sunday, volume will drift sharply lower on Thursday and be non-existent by Friday. Thus the control boyz will be ready to implement any clear the stop programs they want and they will not be shy about it if they so desire.</span><br></font></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;">For now resistance is 1204-1206 and if exceeded, 1211-1216. Odds favor 1206 should be firm enough resistance. Support is now 1188-1192 for Wednesday. In summary, things will wind down on Thursday and then Friday will have very limited trading with no liquidity virtually to speak of. Then the NFP report will come out.<br>
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If it all plays out the potential looks like the chart below where we have a high today and then one more probe lower into 1163-1172 with a cycle BLUE low next week. Keep in mind it is possible for another test of 1220 on Friday if the control boyz use the NFP report to shake the market. If we get a pop to 1220-1225 into April 4th (plus or minus 72 hours) then we’ll favor lower prices into mid-April. If price follows the chart below, we favor a low next week and then higher prices into April 18th.<br></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolSinceFomc1April2015.gif" title="Gold price chart since Fomc meeting" alt="Gold price chart since Fomc meeting" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br>
<b>Cycles</b></font></font>
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<p style="display: inline !important;"><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><span style="">Gold remains a bit elusive as to whether the next cycle turn (BLUE) due on April 4th is going to be a high or a low. IF gold is due to rally from April to Mid-May a BLUE CYCLE LOW would be much more favorable for such a development . The other bottom line is simple. Gold needs to get back into the uptrend channel and close above 1222-1225 on a Friday closing basis. IF WE WERE TO GET A BLUE CYCLE LOW, the ideal high would have been on the 26th of March with a pullback to April 4th. The 1220 print high last week was 1220. Now lets see if gold is going to dump and clear the stops during the NFP report on Monday. A blue cycle low will favor higher to April 18th but a Blue cycle high next week that doesn’t get above 1225, will favor lower to April 18th.</span></font></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc1April2015Intra.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b><br>
Silver</b></font></font>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><span style="">We had the 1625 or the 1650 area as our preferred low for the week and so far that has played out with a 1648 low. We have 1687-1697 or 1710-1725 as the odds favored high for this week. The wild card will be Friday with most markets closed and the NFP report. Low liquidity will allow the control boyz to play if they desire. Support now 1650-1666 and then 1609-1625. Resistance is now 1687-1797 and 1710-1725 on the very short term.</span><br></font></font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3278767
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3278767Bill DowneyTue, 31 Mar 2015 16:37:28 GMTGold remaining under 1200 for the quarterly close in price today<p><span style="">Yesterday we gave support at 1178-1182 and 1166-1172. The low so far has been 1178 on Tuesday morning and price has moved back to the 1188 area, basically where we were on yesterday’s intraday update. Odds remain that 1178-1182 or 1166-1172 will be a key support for this week and the odds favorite for this week’s low. On the upside, resistance is now 1196-1201 with and perhaps the 1192 area today. It’s the last day of the quarter and we already penetrated the 2014 yearly close at 1182 with the 1178 probe this morning. Prices quickly moved back above 1182 so the low for the day could well be in place. In summary, either 1166-1172 or 1178-1182 has best odds for this week’s low. We moved above the channel line from the FOMC low at last Thursday’s high and below it now since yesterday. If the trend is still up, gold will recapture the channel line and close above 1195 today. The short term trend is neutral at the moment. The key is whether gold re-captures the uptrend channel line.</span><br></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><b><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Gol2Hr31Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold price chart since the Fomc Low with support and resistance" alt="Gold price chart since the Fomc Low with support and resistance" width="690" height="444" border="0"></b></font>
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<b>Cycles<br></b><br>
The next cycle turn is due April 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the “window” for a turn opens on Wednesday. Thus its possible that gold bottoms today/Tomorrow and runs up to the end of the week on another attempt above 1200 and then the next cycle leads to another low near the 18th of the month. However, it is not out of the question for gold to make a BLUE CYCLE LOW on this upcoming cycle. That would be more bullish for gold as it would flip the cycle rotation from Red cycle lows to Blue cycle lows (which is what we want for more sustained rallies). Of course that would mean that the high was put in place early in this last cycle and with all standard deviations, there are always outlier data points in any mathematical data collections. They are rare, but they do occur. Thus it’s not out of the question that we get a cycle low on the Blue cycle due April 4th. Odds favor we bottom at 1178-1182 or 1166-1172 this week. Remember, they are odds, not absolutes.</font>
<p><b style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc31Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"></b><br></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><br>
<b>Silver</b></font>
<p><span style="">Odds favor either 1625-1650 or 1601-1611 should be this weeks low with the most likely 1625-1650 and that is current support this week. Current resistance is 1690-1705 and 1725-1750. Odds favor 1712-1725 as the high of the week or 1750-1775 with 1712-1725 with the greater potential.</span><br></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana" style="font-weight: bold;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Sil8Hr31Mar2015Intra.gif" title="silver price chart since the 2015 high" alt="silver price chart since the 2015 high" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<p><b><br></b></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3276372
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3276372Bill DowneyMon, 30 Mar 2015 16:25:11 GMTGold pulling back from last weeks rally to 1220<font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">In the wake of the Fed announcement at the last FOMC meeting that interest rate increases in the United States will come later rather than sooner, gold and silver prices moved higher. Gold moved from lows of $1142.40 on the now active month June COMEX futures contract to close on Friday, March 27 at $1198.60 per ounce -- an increase of just under 5%. The move in silver was even more dramatic, with silver appreciating from lows of $15.26 on March 11 to close on Friday at $16.97 on the active month May futures contract -- an increase of 11.2%.<br>
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While gold and silver recovered as the U.S. dollar moved lower, the situation in Yemen is a watershed event that the metals paid little attention to, so far. When the Saudis and coalition forces announced airstrikes that will precede a ground invasion of 150,000 troops, the metals rallied for a full 20 minutes from 1205 to 1220 and it has been downhill ever since that price peak last Thursday.<br>
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The Saudi action is a clear signal that the war between the Sunni and Shiite Muslim world has reached a new boiling point. The action in Yemen goes far beyond reinstating a deposed Yemeni leader. This new war is an escalation of a proxy war between the Saudis and Iran. Gold and silver are both ignoring the situation (so far).<br>
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Silver rallied more than gold after the Fed statement, however, that rally appears to be suspect as well. Lower open interest during the recent rally leads me to believe that the buying was nothing more than short covering. As with gold, momentum indicators could be turning negative here and relative strength is in overbought territory.<br>
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The Fed statement, which will keep interest rates low, and the incendiary situation in the Middle East, only caused a tepid response in both the gold and silver markets.<br>
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Concerning the action in gold and silver is that open interest has decreased with the recent moves higher. This is a red flag for prices. Volume has also been interesting. Gold had a big volume day on Thursday, March 26 -- over 372,000 contracts traded, which is the most active day in a very long time. However, the price of gold traded up to just over $1220 and failed, closing $15 lower on the session. Meanwhile silver volume has been unexciting -- on March 20 when the silver price vaulted higher by 77 cents and closed on the highs of the session, only 65,364 futures contracts traded.<br>
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Meanwhile, it is clear that the gold and silver markets are not reacting to the situation in the Middle East, rather only to the gyrations in the dollar. If that is the case, these metals are likely to head lower once the US dollar correction from the 100 area is complete.<br>
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It seems clear that the Federal Reserve put off raising short-term interest rates because of the trajectory of the U.S. dollar. It is in the best interest of the U.S. central bank to smooth volatility in currency markets. The Fed is well aware that keeping their promise and even a symbolic rate increase would add fuel to the dollar move. Instead, a prudent approach of kicking the can down the road in terms of higher rates will take some steam out of the dollar's ascent.<br>
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However, so long as gold and silver remain below the first key areas of resistance -- $1225 in gold and $18.535 in silver – the medium term downtrend remains in play. So while the short term moves up and down, we need to see gold above 1225 in order to favor Higher prices in April and into mid May.<br>
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<b><br>
When Will China Disclose Its True Official Gold Reserves And How Much Is It?</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2015<br>
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"If the RMB wants to achieve international status, it must have popular acceptance and a stable value. To this end, other than having assurance from the issuing nation, it is very important to have enough gold as the foundation, raising the ‘gold content’ of the RMB. Therefore, to China, the meaning and mission of gold is to support the RMB to become an internationally accepted currency and make China an economic powerhouse. That is why, in order for gold to fulfill its destined mission, we must raise our gold holdings a great deal, and do so with a solid plan. Step one should take us to the 4,000 tonnes mark, more than Germany and become number two in the world, next, we should increase step by step towards 8,500 tonnes, more than the US."<br>
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- Song Xin, Party Secretary and President of the China Gold Association<br>
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Gold Chart</b><br>
GoldTrends subscribers were long in gold on a short term trade from the FOMC meeting at 1159 and sold positions on Thursday at 1204. The pullback began an hour later as we have reached 1183 here on Monday morning. Support on Monday is 1178-1182 and then 1166-1172. Resistance is 1194-1197 and then 1201-1205. A close below 1178 will favor a test of 1166-1172 next and would put the short term from bullish trend to neutral. &nbsp;<br>
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<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolHrly30Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold hourly price chart with suppport and resistance lines" alt="Gold hourly price chart with suppport and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
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<b>Cycles</b><br>
The next cycle turn is due April 4th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the window opens on Wednesday of this week. We have been expecting a high at 1205-1211 or 1222-1228 to develop during this cycle and its very possible that we saw the high at 1220.40 on Thursday. While this would be very early, we do have a 2nd cycle we follow (and rarely mention) but it was due last Thursday.<br>
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It is always possible for gold to pullback back into a low on April 4th even though that is not the odds favored outcome. Remember odds don’t always play out as anyone who has been to the racetrack knows. A low on April 4th would actually be more bullish as blue cycle lows most often favor rallies in gold where red cycle lows are usually just a bounce in a downtrend. The other side of the coin is the pullback in gold here to say 1172-1182 could form a low early this week and then have gold re-attempt to challenge 1205-1220 near the end of this week. It’s a difficult call because resistance has been met but before the cycle window opened. Lets see how the rest of today plays out and early Tuesday.<br>
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<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc30Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Silver</b><br>
Subscribers were long silver on a short term trade from 1579 and sold out last Thursday at 1724 for a nice gain.<br>
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First support at 1664 was reached on Monday and additional support is the 1615-1640 area. Resistance is the 1692-1704 area and then 1712-1722. A close below 1660 puts the short term from bullish to neutral.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/SIlHrly30Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Silver hourly price chart with support and resistance lines" alt="Silver hourly price chart with support and resistance lines" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3274686
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3274686Bill DowneyWed, 25 Mar 2015 17:09:41 GMTThe most important chart on Earth and the Fed knows it<font face="Verdana"><font style="font-size: 12px;">GoldTrends has been for some time discussing the coming liquidity squeeze. That is what is forcing the US dollar higher and the risk of a liquidity squeeze that we have been warning since 2011 is nearing the 2015 target for a crisis.<br>
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As you can see below, its starting to make the news headlines. Recall how long we favored deflation before it became main stream news? Now it’s beginning with liquidity.<br></font><b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Profound Shift In Liquidity Risk" May Imperil Market Function, New Report Say</font></b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/24/2015<br>
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Over the past several weeks we’ve said quite a bit about the lack of liquidity in both corporate and government bond markets. In a nutshell, QE is taking its toll on Treasury and JGB markets, with both traders and officials in Japan voicing concerns about liquidity while new regulations have made it more onerous for banks to hold inventories of corporate bonds, imperiling the secondary market at a time when new issuance is high thanks to record low borrowing costs. Here’s more:<br>
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•Illiquid Corporate Bond Market Will End In “Very Unpleasant Fashion”<br>
•Drowning In Liquidity But None In The Bond Market<br>
•More Flash Crashes To Come As Shadow Banking Liquidity Collapses<br>
•BoJ Conducts Survey, Promptly Ignores Results<br>
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Now, Oliver Wyman and Morgan Stanley are out with a new report that takes an in depth look at the issue.<br>
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From the note, on market conditions in general...<br>
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There's a liquidity conundrum in fixed income markets facing policy makers and investors: how it’s resolved will have long term investment implications across banks, asset managers and infrastructure players.<br>
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At its heart is the huge shift in liquidity risks to the buyside and asset owners as the twin forces of financial regulation and QE have played out. New rules have driven a severe reduction in sell-side balance sheet and banks’ liquidity provision. Wholesale banking balance sheets supporting traded markets have decreased by 40% in risk weighted assets terms and 20% in total balance sheet since 2010. At the same time, credit markets have boomed as companies turn more to bond finance and investors are hungry for income. Credit market issuance is 2.4 times larger today than 2005. Within this, AuM in daily redeemable funds have grown 10% per annum and are now 76% above 2008 levels…<br>
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This comes at a time when we think the liquidity of secondary fixed income markets is likely to get materially worse. As regulatory costs continue to drag on returns, we expect another 10-15% shrinkage of fixed income balance sheet from the largest wholesale banks in the next 2 years. As much as 15-25% could be taken out of flow rates, we think, given the huge returns pressure on that business.<br>
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There is a growing urgency to tackle this debate by policy makers. The impact of less liquidity has been masked by a benign, ultra low interest-rate environment, but this is set to reverse in the US in the next 12 months, and could also reveal the side effects of QE pushing investors to less liquid securities.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;">(End of Article and our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for it)</font></p><font face="Verdana"><b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Here is the most important chart on earth</font></b> <font style="font-size: 12px;">and the real reason why the Fed is afraid to raise rates. We get above the little back trend line above that major red one and the TREND OF THE USD on a long term basis flips from DOWN to UP. As you know we turned bullish on the USD in May of 2014 just under 79. While we are not ready to say it’s over, this is the first long term area where the dollar rally could end. Odds favor the Feds and central banks take a stand against the dollar here. Their quandary is they would like to see a pullback in the stock market too as they are worried It’s nearing bubble land. What they really should be wary of is the real bubble………..THE BOND MARKET. In sum, it is likely the US dollar climb takes a breather, but beware. If we get above these lines in the USD, it’s a whole new game. If we get the correction, it could be the catalyst that takes gold higher for the seasonal uptrend from the 21st of March to the 21st of May. Besides September, its most often the place where strength develops.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="US dollar long term price chart with most important trend line" alt="US dollar long term price chart with most important trend line" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/USDollarSince1985PeakMar2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p><font face="Verdana"><b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Gold Chart</font></b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Gold has exceeded the 2015 downtrend line and now resistance is 1205-1211. With options expiration today/tomorrow, the control boys moved it right to 1200 this morning as these options get ready to expire. A pullback to the channel line or the Fib 23% at 1180 or the weekly price reversal number at 1172 has us putting 1st support at 1172-1182 for today and Thursday. Resistance is 1205-1211 and then 1222-1225. It’s tough to gage whether gold pulls back from this area before heading to 1205-1211 or if it just moves there first. We are always dealing with odds and so there is nothing to say that the move completion at 1199.75 perhaps has completed the Options expiration portion of this move. Odds are still 1205-1211 and potentially 1222-1225 for this short term move. IF gold is really strong, then its just waiting for options expiration to expire, and then gold will move to 1222-1225 instead of 1205-1211. One of those two areas should be the high this week.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc25Mar2015Intra.gif" border="0"><br></font></p><font face="Verdana"><br>
<b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Cycles</font></b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">The next cycle is due April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). There’s another mini cycle due March 26th, and we might get a pullback that begins from then. We’re not sure and just mentioning it. Overall, we still should expect this rally to push to the red channel line or the 50 day average at 1222.<br></font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc25Mar2015Intra.gif" border="0"><br></font></p><font face="Verdana"><b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Silver</font></b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Resistance is 1705-1710 but more liikely 1725-1750. Support is 1625-1650 and minor at 1666-1674 and 1625-1650. Any close below 1604 would be bearish short term. Silver has been trying to break the upper downtrend line now for 48 hours. Should it do so, look for 1725-1750 next. In summary, silver needs to get above this red downtrend line. If it does, we should get 1725-1750. Thus 1705-1710 or 1725-1750 are odds favorite areas for this weeks high.<br>
<br>
<img width="690" height="444" title="Silver price chart since the 2015 highs" alt="Silver price chart since the 2015 highs" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Sil8Hr24Feb2015Trade.gif" border="0"><br></font></font>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</font></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3266546
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3266546Bill DowneyTue, 24 Mar 2015 15:38:17 GMTGold nears 1200 as options expiration comes into play for April Gold Futures<font face="Verdana"><font style="font-size: 12px;">Options expiration is about to come into play Wednesday/Thursday. &nbsp; The best profits come with gold near (above or below) or at 1200.&nbsp;<br>
<br>
<b>Gold Chart</b><br>
<br>
Gold remains at resistance lines. It has moved slightly above the downtrend line but has run into the uptrend line resistance. With options expiration tomorrow/Thursday, the potential to move to 1200 (1205-1211) is still in play. They are odds, not absolutes, but as long as price remains above that Fib support we have been getting on the 8 hour bars, odds are still on our side. The short term trend remains bullish and it takes a close below 1159-1165 to return neutralize the uptrend. A close below that 23% FIB support would suggest the potential of 1165-1172. Resistance today is 1194 and then 1205-1211. Support will be that 1178-1180 area and then 1172 for the day.<br>
<br>
<img width="690" height="444" title="Gold price chart with support and resistance levels" alt="Gold price chart with support and resistance levels" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Gol8Hr24Mar2015Intra.gif" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b>Cycles</b><br>
The next short term cycle is due April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). Keep in mind that we are now working off red cycle lows instead of Blue that we had during the uptrend from the Nov low at 1130 to January’s 1308 high. Most obvious resistance this week as at the intersecting trend lines near 1205-1211. Additional resistance is the 50 day moving average at 1222.<br></font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc24Mar2015Intra.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Silver</b></font></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Silver has reached the odds favored resistance this week we listsed at 1687-1705 with a 1710 print high and resistance at the channel line. The only other point would be that 1725 area as resistance. Thus odds favor 1705-1725 should be the high for this week. A pullback to 1625-1650 could set up for a final push higher into the next short term cycle target in the 1st week of April.</font></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="Silver price chart with support and resistance levels" alt="Silver price chart with support and resistance levels" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Silver/Sil8Hr24Feb2015Trade.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><br></p>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3264198
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3264198Bill DowneyMon, 23 Mar 2015 17:57:13 GMTGold Options expiration this week and a whole lot more of what is going on<p><span style="">Let’s use today’s headlines to drive home the outcomes GoldTrends has been forecasting since the 2011 Gold top.</span><br></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><u><i>First we forecasted that deflation/Liquidity Squeeze and not inflation would be the coming problem.</i></u><br>
<br>
<b>Another "Worst Since Lehman" Moment: 70% Of The "Developed" World Has Inflation Less Than 0.5%</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2015<br>
<br>
"Proactive central banks figure this out early and fight the inevitable slowdown by implementing QE and weaker currencies. They grab the other guy’s pizza slice. Their asset markets soar. As Figure 5 shows, 70% of the world’s developed markets have inflation below 0.5% – almost as high as the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. So the USD 8.6 trillion in central bank balance sheet expansion (from the Fed, ECB, BOE, BoJ, and PBoC, which amounts to 130% growth over Dec-07 to now) has been unable to get inflation going." - Bank of America<br>
<i><u><br>
Second, we said that a soaring US dollar and not gold would be in play into 2015 and that the USD would eventually end up taking the US economy down (along with the global economy).</u></i><br>
<br>
<b>Commodities</b><br>
Medium Term trend – Bearish<br>
Moving averages – 259 – 274<br>
<br>
In order to increase awareness on the massive deflationary collapse that has taken place in commodities we give you the long term chart. As you can see overall commodity prices are trading where we were 23 years ago. That’s right, we are at 1992 prices. (Scroll under chart to continue discussion).</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Weekly/Cry0Wkly21Mar2015.gif" title="Commodities weekly price chart" alt="Commodities weekly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">Keep in mind we are not saying your cost of living isn’t going up. It is going up and it is exploding higher at a time when wages have been stagnant even longer than commodity prices have been going down, and there’s a direct relation there. Real cost of living is going up because governments have increased taxes, license fees, permits, excise, services, and every other thing possible, while corporations have increased their profit margins without boosting wages. Yes, the bottom line at the grocery store and most other products we purchase as well seem to forever be rising in price. And so while many continue to cry out inflation, in fact, we have the opposite. There is no commodity inflation. Rising government taxation and corporate profit margins are deflationary because wage increases have not kept up with the latter. What this causes in effect is deflation as there is less and less non-discretionary spending. Paying for food, clothing and shelter does not make for economic growth. That only comes with non-discretionary spending.<br>
<br>
For now the trend remains down and the trend in commodities is in line with an economic global crisis that is brewing. We can make the argument that prices have doubled in Russia and while that is true, the fact of the matter is commodities are NOT PRICED in Rubles. We have pointed out and will continue to do so the fact that some currencies are going to experience INFLATION while others experience deflation. The sad fact is that crude oil prices and a host of other commodities have CRASHED in price. That’s the bottom line. But if you live in a country like Russia, your currency has collapsed and yes, in your world a monetary devaluation against other currencies has taken place. Rest assured, the PRICE OF CRUDE OIL HAS DEFLATED. IT HAS NOT INFLATED.<br>
<br>
The ONLY price bounce we have had since the 2014 high was a three week bounce from the lower green channel line in February 2015 that met resistance at that white downtrend line here in March. Since then price has returned to the lower green channel line and 1992 price levels. In addition, note we have the 2009 crash low line sitting at the 200 area as the next support should this lower green downtrend line fail. We are less than 15 points away. The only other support is the 1999 and 2002 commodity low at 180.<br>
<br>
For all intents and purposes the deflationary event has already taken place. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for a total global economic implosion and debt default that begins to take place between Q4 2015 and Q2 2016. The system is definitely going to get a liquidity crisis and that is the message that gold, silver, Oil and just about every other commodity (along with zero interest rates has been telling us). Hell, even the dollar has had a PANIC move up as it has done in all liquidity panics. A life change of Biblical proportions is about to engulf the entire globe. It should be obvious as to why all the US Government agencies have armed themselves to the guild and why all the ammunition is disappearing. It is because the Government already knows what’s coming and it’s what we’ve been telling you is coming at GoldTrends. Odds are very high it begins in Q4 2015 – Q2 2016. In summary, a price rise from this area is not out of the question. For all intents and purposes, we have already crashed in commodity land. So whether we move from this 214 area to 200 or 180 is irrelevant. The commodity crash has already occurred. Now we await the global liquidity crisis to strike in the latter portion of 2015 or in the first portion of 2016. The bubble it will burst is the government bond markets.<br>
<i><u><br>
And of Course the US Dollar damage to US economy is another GoldTrends forecast…………<br></u></i> <b><br>
US Economic Activity Worst Since 2011 Amid Major Downward Revisions, Chicago Fed Signals</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2015<br>
<br>
January's "optimistic" +0.13 print for CFNAI was revised drastically lower to -0.10 and now February prints -0.11 against an expectation of +0.10 for the 3rd miss in a row - the worst run since Q3 2011. The Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator (which has gained in prominence in recent months) indicates a 3rd month of "below trend growth," for the first time since June 2011.<br>
<i><u><br>
GoldTrends forecasted the coming collapse would most likely begin in Europe………..</u></i><br>
<b><br>
Buying Euphoria Fizzles Ahead Of Make Or Break Tsipras-Merkel Talks</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2015 -<br>
<br>
As previously observed (skeptically), a main reason for the surge in the DAX, and thus the S&amp;P, on Friday was premature hope that the Greek talks earlier were a long-overdue precursor to a Greek resolution, and as we further noted yesterday, subsequent bickering and lack of any clarity as we go into today's critical "final ultimatum" meeting between Merkel and Tsipras, is also why the Dax was lower by 1.1% at last check, even if the EURUSD continues to trade like an illiquid, B-grade currency pair whose only HFT purpose is to slam all stops within 100 pips of whatever the current price may be.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;">The Euro has reached a place where a bounce back to 116 could be developing. &nbsp;But we don't think that is going to be the end of the damage. &nbsp;But 9 straight months down does allow for a bounce. &nbsp;Not that it has too, but one would think odds favor it. &nbsp;Key is the long term support line is the last one on the charts until the mid 80 area.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Weekly/FxeMon22Mar2015.gif" title="Euro Long Term Price Chart" alt="Euro Long Term Price Chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br>
<i><u><br>
As for the USD GoldTrends forecasted once the High is in place for the USD and all the global short positions have had their clock cleaned, that the end of the USD as a reserve currency would begin</u></i>.<br>
<b><br>
Washington Blinks: Will Seek Partnership With China-Led Development Bank</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/22/2015<br>
<br>
"The Obama administration, facing defiance by allies that have signed up to support a new Chinese-led infrastructure fund, is proposing the bank work in a partnership with Washington-backed development institutions such as the World Bank." And with that, one giant shift towards de-dollarization is now in the books.<br>
<i><u><br>
The Fed is now trapped ……………………… as all the UNDERFUNDED pension funds are in stocks.</u></i><br>
<i><br>
The Fed - Hawk, Dove, Or Chicken?</i><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2015<br>
<br>
We often hear various Fed officials described as hawks or doves but Janet Yellen’s Fed brings to mind another avian metaphor. They are afraid to raise rates for fear that doing so would upset the asset market inflation process and derail what is left of their theory. In her press conference last week Yellen said that stock market valuations were on the high side of historical norms, an appellation that only works if one includes the stock bubble of the late 90s. It seems that she and the other members of the FOMC have decided that another epic stock market bubble is better than admitting they were wrong. This FOMC doesn’t have any hawks or doves, only chickens.<br>
<i><u><br>
In the end, the global collapse, or liquidity squeeze will set off the ultimate bubble that has been building up for a Fibonacci 34 years………… BONDS.<br></u></i><b><br>
Illiquid Corporate Bond Market Will End In "Very Unpleasant Fashion"</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2015&nbsp;<br>
<br>
The hunt for yield is driving investors into riskier debt at just the wrong time. With liquidity in the corporate bond market drying up thanks to new regulations, the rush to the exit is likely to be "very unpleasant," one analyst says.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;">(Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above articles)</font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>And so what about gold ?</b><br>
<br>
Gold is in its final down phase. The ideal low is in the 850 area, but those are odds and not absolutes. The maximum downside range on a 2008 style panic is 680 but it is hard to fathom that low. On the other hand the 975-1040 area has a lot of support as well.<br>
<br>
<b>Could the correction in gold be complete now?</b><br>
<br>
Odds favor its close, but there is not enough evidence to say yes definitely yet.<br>
<br>
<b>Let’s go to the short term;</b><br>
<br>
According to GoldTrends subscriber and options trader Evert P.<br>
Coming up this week on 3/26, April options expiration for gold.<br>
<br>
Going to be pretty interesting, the FOMC bounce has put a lot of options into play that wasn’t a factor before. The 1200 strike have taken on new meaning all of a sudden.<br>
<br>
Puts have OI of 8839 at 1200 strike and calls 4962.<br>
<br>
This is causing a interesting dilemma, option writers would now want the market above 1200 to cancel the puts out and below 1200 to cancel the calls out.<br>
<br>
This would create the possibility to trade up to 1200 before expiration even.,and trade around that level till after expiration.<br>
<br>
Bottom line, the FOMC has created an interesting situation for the option boys this expiry.<br>
<br>
Hope it helps.<br>
<br>
Evert<br>
<br>
(Thanks for that Evert !!!!) &nbsp;(Odds favor 1200 is going to be tested).</font></font>
<p><b style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px;">Gold Chart</b><br></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana">After reaching last week’s target of 1175-1182, gold is trying to break above the 2015 downtrend line. Odds favor we will do it as OPTIONS expiration this week (3/26) looks to want to bring gold to 1200. Note how we keep holding the 1180 area on the 8 hour bars below. That is suggestive that the boyz want to run it to 1200 and next resistance of 1205-1211. Should there be a pullback before the expiration, then 1162-1172 is this week’s first firm support (at the moment). In summary, a break above the 2015 downtrend line favors 1205-1211 next. With Options expiration here, that 1200 area is the odds favored move. Until we cross the 2015 downtrend line, we can still pullback to 1162-1172 first. It takes a close below 1155 to negate the short term uptrend, and a move above that downtrend line to extend it.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Gol8Hr23Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold price chart since the 2015 price low" alt="Gold price chart since the 2015 price low" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b>Cycles</b><br>
Last weeks forecast of a short term turn up at the red cycle in the odds favored 1142-1146 area coming out of the FOMC meeting was right on the money. Subscribers are long gold at 1159. That resistance area at 1205-1211 is this weeks 1st price target and the 1222-1225 area is the 2nd. The first area is the highest odds favored where the downtrend and uptrend channel lines meet and options expiration come into play. The 2nd target is the 50 day moving average at 1222. That might be more for early next week if it is to occur and certainly not favored before Friday (if at all this week).<br>
<br>
The next short term cycle is due April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).<br></font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc23Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b><br>
Silver</b><br>
On the very short term silver has resistance at 1194-1704 and then 1725-1750. Support is scattered on the chart but the greatest band is 1580-1620 and then at the 1650 level. Silver should follow gold higher into the next cycle due April 3rd.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/SilHrly23Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Silver price chart since the 2015 price low" alt="Silver price chart since the 2015 price low" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br></font></font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3262967
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3262967Bill DowneyFri, 20 Mar 2015 16:24:57 GMTGold short term analysis & what you should know about new gold price fix mechanism<p><span style="">As you may or may not know, there is a new daily gold price fixing mechanism that began this week. Here is the information you should know about that change and the most frequently asked questions.</span><br></p><b>(NOTE: Gold short term charts and analysis will follow).</b><br>
<br>
<b>ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) operates the new LBMA Gold Price Fix<br>
LBMA Offices</b><br>
<br>
The LBMA Gold Price yesterday replaced the historic London Gold Fix. The first LBMA Gold Price settled at $1,171.75. ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) administers the “LBMA Gold Price”. They provide the auction platform, methodology as well as overall independent administration and governance for the LBMA Gold Price. The LBMA holds the intellectual property rights.<br>
<br>
Background<br>
<br>
The London Gold Fix pricing mechanism has been replaced by a new electronic LBMA price-discovery process from Friday, 20th March 2015. The price continues to be set twice daily (at 10:30 and 15:00 London GMT). The new LBMA Gold Price is operated and administered by an independent third party provider, ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA), who was chosen following consultation with market participants. IBA provides the price platform, methodology as well as the overall administration and governance for the LBMA Gold Price. The IBA's platform provides an electronic, auction-based, tradable, auditable and fully IOSCO-compliant solution for the London bullion market. For further information contact the LBMA at Au.Consult@lbma.org.uk.<br>
<br>
Accredited Price Participants<br>
<br>
There are six price participants who have been accredited to contribute to the LBMA Gold Price: Barclays Bank, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC Bank USA NA, Societe Generale, The Bank of Nova Scotia - ScotiaMocatta and UBS.<br>
<br>
A set of Frequently Asked Questions is set out below<br>
<br>
<b>What has changed?</b><br>
<br>
On 20th March 2015 the historic London Gold Fix was discontinued and replaced by the LBMA Gold Price. ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) became the administrator for the “LBMA Gold Price”. IBA provides the auction platform, methodology as well as overall independent administration and governance for the LBMA Gold Price. The LBMA holds the intellectual property rights for the LBMA Gold Price.<br>
<b><br>
What are the main features of the new process?</b><br>
<br>
IBA host an electronic auction process for the LBMA Gold Price. The auction process is independently administrated and tradable, electronic and physically settled, conducted in dollars, with aggregated and anonymous bids and offers as well as being published on-screen and in real-time.<br>
<b><br>
Is the LBMA Gold Price still set twice daily?</b><br>
<br>
Yes, the price continues to be set twice daily at 10:30 am and 3:00 pm each business day.<br>
<br>
Will the Gold Fixing Price and the LBMA Gold Price be calculated in parallel for a transitional period?<br>
<br>
No. The last publication of the Gold Fixing Price was on the afternoon of March 19, 2015. The first publication of the LBMA Gold Price was on the morning of March 20, 2015.<br>
<b><br>
Where can I source the LBMA Gold Price?</b><br>
<br>
The LBMA Gold Price is available on the LBMA and IBA websites. In addition the data is available from a wide range of Data Vendors and Redistributors which are listed in the spreadsheet which you can download here.. The live auction can be viewed on Reuters using the codes 0#XAUFIXAM for the am auction and 0#XAUFIXPM for the pm auction and on Bloomberg using the ticker GOAULNAM for the AM auction and GOAULNPM for the PM auction (these tickers can also be accessed by running the {LBMA} page on Bloomberg).<br>
<b><br>
What information is available at the end of the auction process?</b><br>
<br>
At the end of the auction process, IBA will publish the benchmark price. IBA will also publish a Transparency Report showing for each round: the price in USD; the aggregated bid and offer volume; the number of participants; and the timings for each round.<br>
<br>
What information is available during the auction process through redistributors?<br>
The major market data redistributors will display: At the start of each round – the price that is being tried for that round of the auction At the end of each round of the auction – the aggregated bid and offer volume at the end of that round.<br>
<b><br>
How should the price be referenced in documentation?</b><br>
<br>
The official registered name of the benchmark is “LBMA Gold Price”. From the close of business on March 19, 2015 the London Gold Fix will cease. Any documentation which refers to London Gold Fix or similar should be updated to reference the “LBMA Gold Price” from March 20, 2015.<br>
<br>
Documentation that specifically refers to the LBMA Gold Price published at 10:30am London time should be updated to refer to “LBMA Gold Price AM”. Documentation that specifically refers to the LBMA Gold Price published at 3:00pm London time should be updated to refer to “LBMA Gold Price PM”.<br>
<br>
ISDA have made amendments to their definitions as follows:<br>
<br>
"GOLD–LBMA PRICE-AM" means that the price for a Pricing Date will be that day’s morning London Gold price per troy ounce of Gold for delivery in London through a member of the LBMA authorized to effect such delivery, stated in U.S. Dollars, as calculated and administered by independent service provider(s), pursuant to an agreement with the LBMA, and published by the LBMA on its website that displays prices effective on that Pricing Date.<br>
<br>
"GOLD–LBMA PRICE-PM" means that the price for a Pricing Date will be that day’s afternoon London Gold price per troy ounce of Gold for delivery in London through a member of the LBMA authorized to effect such delivery, stated in U.S. Dollars, as calculated and administered by independent service provider(s), pursuant to an agreement with the LBMA, and published by the LBMA on its website that displays prices effective on that Pricing Date.<br>
<b><br>
Do I need to add a disclaimer to documentation that references the LBMA Gold Price?</b><br>
<br>
Yes. A disclaimer should be added to documentation that references the LBMA Gold Price as follows: All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced.<br>
<br>
<b>Do I need to licence with ICE Benchmark Administration to use or redistribute the LBMA Gold Price?</b><br>
<br>
IBA intends to introduce new licensing arrangements for LBMA Gold Price. However, in order to facilitate an orderly transition to the new auction process and administrator, the introduction of new licensing arrangements will not come into effect before September 1, 2015. All existing licences with the Gold Fixing Company will be terminated at close of business on March 19, 2015 and existing licensees have been informed by the Gold Fixing Company. Clients are not required to have a licence with ICE Benchmark Administration until September 1, 2015. Any party requiring an agreement to cover the interim period should contact ICE Benchmark Administration. Please contact ICE Benchmark Administration for more information on iba@theice.com or Tel: IBA on+44 20 7429 7100.<br>
<b><br>
Is the LBMA Gold Price a regulated benchmark?</b><br>
<br>
From 1 April 2015 the LBMA Gold Price will be a regulated benchmark, as it will become a ‘specified benchmark’ for the purposes of Art 63O of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Regulated Activities) Order 2001.<br>
The above information comes from the website; http://www.lbma.org.uk/lbma-gold-price
<p>(end of Article)</p><b><br>
Short term gold and silver price technical analysis</b><br>
<br>
<b>Gold Chart</b><br>
<br>
Our forecast for gold to bottom in the first odds favored 1142-1146 area came in at 1142.67 in spot gold this week. The 2nd part of the forecast that odds favored gold would rally out of the FOMC meeting this week has met its 1st target resistance of 1175-1182 with an 1184 print high on Friday. Odds favor there should be a pause near this level and a pullback to retest the 1166-1172 area could develop next week into the Wednesday period. However, any close above 1185 will favor next week’s 1st target price of 1198-1205 will be underway. Support is now 1166-1172 and resistance remains for today is 1182-1185. The big question is whether gold can break above this channel line and as you will see in the silver chart, we think the answer is yes. If the short term cycles play out, odds favor gold is heading towards the 1222-1225 area in a short term rally into April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). Subscribers to www.goldtrends.net received e-mail right after the FOMC meeting that a LONG trade at 1159 had been established. Wednesday’s pullback price low was 1159 and thus subscribers were given a 2nd chance to enter a long position.<br>
<br>
In summary, odds favor 1182-1185 as today’s high and the potential to pullback to 1166-1172 comes into play for early next week. Any close above 1185 favors the move to 1198-1205 is already underway. This TRENDLINE and 1185 is most likely place where it is decided whether we move to 1200 or not will take place.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Gol8Hr20Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold price chart since the 2015 high" alt="Gold price chart since the 2015 high" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b>Cycles</b><br>
As discussed this week, the short term cycle turn for the March price low that was due March 20th (plus or minus 72 hours) is underway since the Tuesday low where the bottom happened 64 hours before the ideal hour for the monthly low. That low developed right at the downtrend line of our cycle chart and any close above 1185 will initiate the targets for this short rally at either 1198-1205 or 1222-1225 going into April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours). Also discussed was the BIG signal that RSI (top of the chart) was giving for a price low.
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc20Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p><br>
<br>
<b>Silver<br></b>
<p><b><span style="">Silver as already broken out of its main downtrend channel (red) and a 2nd channel puts the 1st target resistance in silver at 1687 for this current rally. If gold closes above 1185 and we are indeed heading higher into April 3rd, then the potential for silver will be 1725-1780. For now there should be good resistance at 1687-1692.</span><br></b></p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Sil8Hr20Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Silver price chart since the 2015 high" alt="Silver price chart since the 2015 high" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br>
<br>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3259707
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3259707Bill DowneyThu, 19 Mar 2015 15:27:05 GMTGold and Silver lows for March seem to be in place<b>Gold Chart<br></b><br>
Our favored target of 1142-1146 (on the website reports) held this week and the forecast for a rally off the FOMC meeting into the first week of April has commenced. So far so good as the 1175 resistance pullback was back down to the short term moving averages we watch to gauge near term trends. As you can see the pullback was right back at the moving averages ranging from the Gold Micro 10 ounce contract trade low at 1158.80, the spot price at 1159.53 and the Comex gold price at 1159.80. Yesterday’s website signal was sent out for a long position at 1159 and thus today’s pullback has allowed for entry at that level for subscribers who may have missed the initial signal.
<p><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolHrly19Mar2015Intra.gif" title="gold hourly price chart" alt="gold hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p><b><br>
Gold Continued</b><br>
For Thursday, resistance will remain as listed on last night’s website daily update at 1175-1182 and support at 1155-1162. The forecast for higher prices out of FOMC to April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) is in play but keep in mind that markets have odds, but no absolutes. What we want to see next is the blue moving average move ABOVE the GREEN average. That will put the short term trend from the Neutral reading it achieved yesterday to a bullish reading. ANY CLOSE BELOW 1137 negates the short term trend from up to down.<br>
<br>
<b>Gold Cycles</b><br>
The short term gold cycle that was due March 20th (plus or minus 72 hours) had its “window” open on Tuesday, which was the day gold reached its 1141.60 low and the Trend line on the chart. If this short term cycle which will last until April 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) is to play out, odds favor that the low was achieved yesterday. While gold can still make a low until Monday, odds are currently in favor of that not happening. The other factor that argues for a gold bounce is the RSI on the chart. As you can see, the last three times this under 30 level was reached, gold had decent bounces. In summary, a short term bounce in gold is under attempt but the medium term trend in gold remains down. Thus for now, we feel a bounce into the 1st week of April is the odds favored outcome.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GolCyc18Mar2015.gif" title="Gold cycles" alt="Gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b>Silver</b><br>
Silver’s short term trend has moved from Neutral to Bullish as the blue moving average has crossed the green. Look for support at the averages and at the dual black dotted trend line as well as the lower red dotted channel line. If things play out as odds are expected, silver should move higher into the first week of April. The next resistance levels are the 1619 to 1650 area. Thus we have 1619 as resistance today but odds favor silver will reach to the 1650 area some time next week where the first real test of the short term uptrend should take place. ANY CLOSE BELOW 1525 is our failsafe and would negate the short term forecast for higher prices into the first week of April.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/SilHrly19Mar2015Intra.gif" title="Silver hourly" alt="Silver hourly" width="690" height="444" border="0">
<p><br></p><br>
<br>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3258492
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3258492Bill DowneyTue, 17 Mar 2015 17:32:50 GMTGold, the FOMC and interest rates<p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><b style="font-family: Verdana;">Gold Daily Report ~ March 17 2015</b><br></font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><b>Trend<br>
Long Term ~ Bearish</b>-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br>
<b>Medium Term ~ Bearish</b>– Need a monthly close above 1255-1272 to remove bearish trend.<br>
<b>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</b>– Need close above 120-122 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.<br>
<b>Short Term ~ bearish</b>- Need a close above 1171 to return to NEUTRAL.<br>
<br>
Initial Resistance 1163-1167 2nd tier 1171-1177<br>
Support 1142-1148 2nd tier 1130-1135<br>
<br>
The last update listed resistance at 1163-1167 and the high was 1164. Support was listed at 1142-1153 and the low was 1154.<br>
<br>
The big event for this week is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and of course all markets are focused on what the specific wording will be for the Feds and the factor in which all eyes are upon and that is the interest rate policy that will be forthcoming from this meeting.<br>
<br>
During 2014 the trial balloon has been launched by the Feds that the lower interest rates that has been in effect for a Fibonacci 34 years is coming to an end and we are witnessing the transition that comes with this long term change.<br>
<br>
There are those in the camp that the Fed will absolutely not raise rates and with those opinions we disagree.<br>
<br>
If we look at things in a view from the moon, Paul Volker was the one who brought interest rates to 21% (the century high), Alan Greenspan was the one who brought rates back to the norm, Ben Bernanke was the one who brought rates to a 300 year low and Janet Yellen will be the one who brings them back up.<br>
<br>
It is our view that the Fed has absolutely no control over long term rates and they are in essence trend followers. “Fed speak” has us thinking that they are in control but the fact of the matter is the global debt market is so big, and so deep in depth that the Fed follows long term trends. Yes, they can control short term rates and it certainly has some influence. That we are not denying. But overall they do not have control of long term rates and we believe that the cycle of rates has run its course and the future will be of longer term rates beginning its new cycle of higher rates.<br>
<br>
To take it further, we actually think the Fed WANTS higher rates for a number of reasons, but that will be for another update.<br>
<br>
As far as gold, all trends remain bearish in gold and odds favor (generally speaking) that gold will most likely bottom in 2015 (to 2017) and at the 875 price area ( with a max range of 680 to 1080).<br>
<br>
As for the very short term, odds favor gold makes a low this week in the 1142-1146 area and a rebound into April 3rd will develop taking gold back up to the 1175-1208 area.<br>
<br>
<b>Gold Short term</b><br>
<br>
Price reached the 1146-1148 area twice last week as we have been anticipating 1142-1146 as the area that would hold based on the 1146 lows established on Nov 13th and 30th of last year. With price at the bottom of the channel line, odds favor a low should develop this week that will take prices higher into the 1st week of April before a resumption of the downtrend continues.<br>
<br>
Support is 1142-1146. All trends remain down at the moment. We do not feel that the 1130 low will hold if tested. Therefore the only place we see for a rebound on the short term is whether we hold 1142-1146.<br>
<br>
Odds now favor we hold at 1142-1146 and that gold bottoms in line with the short term cycle due this week. From there we’ll look for a bounce into the 1st week of April.</font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;">Note - price does not include Tuesday session on chart.</font></p><font style="font-size: 12px;"><font face="Verdana"><br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GolHrly15Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<b><br>
Gold Cycles</b><br>
<br>
The next cycle turn is March 20th (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that the “window” for a price low begins Tuesday March 17th and will most likely provide a low this week and as late as Friday. From there we’ll look for prices to bounce higher into the 1st week of April.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Weekly/GolCyc16Mar2015.gif" title="Gold cycle" alt="Gold cycle" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<b><br>
HUI GOLD STOCK INDEX</b><br>
Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bearish<br>
Intermediate Term Moving Averages – 175.59 – 180.33<br>
<br>
We have reached the line on the HUI chart that has been penetrated three times but each time provided a low from which the HUI has bounced. With the cycle low due this week on a short term basis, its possible that the gold stocks hold here. However, that by far does not eliminate a test of the channel line at 140-144. With the FOMC meeting, the stock market may remain under some pressure into mid week and that leaves the potential for lower HUI prices. Any move to the 140-144 area would present a short term low opportunity and a rebound potential for April and into mid May. That is the bullish view and is by no means a guarantee. However, odds favor that the HUI should find a bottom here in the 3rd week of March and a rebound will be favored into April and then we’ll see.<br>
<br>
All trends remain down at the moment and it takes a close above 180 to neutralize the downtrend.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/HUI4hr16Mar2015.gif" title="HUI gold stock index" alt="HUI gold stock index" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<b><br>
NUGT</b><br>
Intermediate Trend –Bearish<br>
Moving Averages – 12.25 – 13.25<br>
<br>
As long as NUGT is below the moving averages the intermediate term favors lower and we need a close above 14 in order to neutralize the current downtrend. Odds do favor we make a low this week and begin a bounce back up into the 1st week of April.<br>
<br>
Support is the 7-8 area and resistance 13-15.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/NUGT4hr16Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<b><br>
Gold Medium Term</b><br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481<br>
Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1233 – 1247<br>
<br>
One of the things we said when gold made its low in November of 2014 was that it did not favor (and still doesn’t favor) it being the final low. The reason we said that is because gold did not touch a trend line on the chart when the low was made and it is a very rare thing that a final bear market low would happen without touching a trend line. Not impossible, but very rare.<br>
<br>
On the other hand we stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance. In Addition the blue moving average has to cross above the red in order to confirm the trend change. Until that time, the downtrend remains intact.<br>
<br>
Odds favor gold will make a new yearly low as Platinum has already done so. The next (and not the last) target will be the 1080-1100 area.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/XGLDwkly16Mar2015.gif" title="Gold weekly price chart" alt="Gold weekly price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b><br>
GOLD ETF GLD</b><br>
Moving Average Trend ~ 113.80 – 114.78 – Bearish<br>
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.<br>
This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20<br>
<br>
The intermediate term remains down. Resistance is 115-116 and then 120-121. It takes a close above 115 at the moving averages to neutralize the shorter term down trends. Odds favor GLD makes a low this week at the next lower trend line on the chart.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GLD4hr16Mar2015.gif" title="Gold ETF GLD price chart" alt="Gold ETF GLD price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b><br>
GDX</b><br>
Intermediate term Trend 19.56 – 20.07 ~ Bearish<br>
<br>
Resistance is the moving averages at 20.23-20.70 and short term support is the lower green at the 16.20-16.80 area.<br>
<br>
It takes a close above the moving averages at 19.56-20.07 to neutralize the short term downtrend.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GDX4hr16Mar2015.gif" title="Gold Stock index price chart for GDX" alt="Gold Stock index price chart for GDX" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<b><br>
What next?</b><br>
<br>
The short term trend is bearish but a price low in the 1142-1146 area between March 17th-20th is favored. Odds favor that low occurs during or right after the FOMC meeting this week.<br>
<br>
<b>Bottom Line</b><br>
<br>
A short term low and bounce back to the 1st week of April should take place this week.<br></font></font>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3255686
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3255686Bill DowneyThu, 12 Mar 2015 12:37:32 GMTGold support for this week is 1142-1146<b><br>
Gold ~ March 12 2015<br>
<br>
Trend<br>
Long Term ~ Bearish-</b>Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.<br>
<b>Medium Term ~ Bearish</b>– Need a monthly close above 1255-1272 to remove bearish trend.<br>
<b>Intermediate Term ~ Bearish</b>– Need close above 120-122 in GOLD ETF GLD to turn trend up.<br>
<b>Short Term ~ bearish</b>- Need a close above 1171 to return to NEUTRAL.<br>
<br>
Initial Resistance 1163-1167 2nd tier 1171-1185<br>
Support 1146-1156 2nd tier 1138-1142<br>
<br>
Last update on the website listed resistance at 1172-1182 and the high was 1164. Support was listed at 1146-1156 and the low was 1146.<br>
<br>
<b>FX Volatility Spikes As More Countries Enter Currency Wars; Euro Surges On Furious Squeeze After Touching 1.04</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2015<br>
<br>
The global currency wars are getting ever more violent, following yesterday's unexpected entry of Thailand and South Korea, whose central banks were #23 and #24 to ease monetary conditions in 2015, confirming the threat of a global USD margin call is clear and present (see "The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And "This Time It's Different"). But the one currency everyone continues to watch is the Euro, which the closer it gets to parity with the USD, the more volatile it becomes, and moments after touching a 1.04-handle coupled with the DXY rising above 100 for the first time in 12 years, the EURUSD saw a huge short squeeze which sent it nearly 150 pips higher to 1.0643, before the selling resumed.<br>
<br>
<b>Bank Of Korea Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate To Record Low 1.75%, 24th Central Bank To Ease In 2015</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015<br>
<br>
The currency war salvos just keep on coming. Moments ago the BOK unexpectedly (the move was predicted by just 2 of 17 economists polled by Bloomberg) cut its policy rate from 2.00% to a record low 1.75%, in what is clearly a full-blown retaliation against the collapse currency of its biggest export competitor, Japan, whose currency has cratered to a level that many in South Korea believe has become a direct subsidy for its competing exports. As such the only question is why the BOK didn't cut earlier. And following the surprise rate cut by Thailand earlier today, the "surprise" South Korean rate cut means there are now 24 easing policy actions by central banks in 2015 alone.<br>
<b><br>
"Monetarism Hasn't Worked Anywhere" - Reality On China, Finally</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015<br>
<br>
China remains an export economy no matter how hard they try to convince the world they are moving otherwise. The idea of creating internal “demand” as a means to extricate marginal changes from everybody else is undoubtedly a good idea, even a noble one, but the reality of China as it exists top-down isn’t conducive for such a transformation. Further, that just isn’t realistic under the global conditions that have persisted since the Great Recession was declared over. In that respect, there isn’t much to separate what is occurring now from the Great Recession itself.<br>
<b><br>
China's Latest Spinning Plate: 10 Trillion In Local Government Debt</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015<br>
<br>
China is in the midst of attempting to help local governments refinance a mountain of debt, some of which was accumulated off balance sheet via shadow banking conduits at relatively high rates. According to UBS, "Chinese domestic media are saying that the authorities are considering a Chinese "QE" with the central bank funding the purchase of RMB 10 trillion in local government debt."<br>
<b><br>
Danger Down Under — A Brief Look At Australia's Trade Flows</b><br>
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2015<br>
<br>
Global growth forecasts are falling and the risk of deflation is rising. As a result, countries that are dependent on commodity exports are especially vulnerable. Australia relies on exports to China. If prices fall and China slows down then Australia will be in big trouble.<br>
<br>
<b>Gold Short term</b><br>
<br>
Price reached our 1142-1146 target yesterday coming in at 1146.50 and a small bounce attempt is underway. Look for resistance at 1163-1167 and 1171-1175. Support is 1142-1146. All trends remain down at the moment. The Nov 13th and Nov 30th lows came in at 1146 and thus 1142-1146 is the final support before the 1130 low of Nov 7th. We do not feel that the 1130 low will hold if tested. Therefore the only place we see for a rebound on the short term is whether we hold 1142-1146.<br>
<br>
We still feel new lows are coming but this week could hold at 1142-1146 and bounce back into week end in the 1165-1175 area.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GolHrly12Mar2015A.gif" title="gold hourly price chart" alt="gold hourly price chart" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<br>
<br>
<b><br>
Gold Cycles</b><br>
<br>
The next cycle turn is March 20th (plus or minus 72 hours).<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GOlCyc12Mar2015.gif" title="Gold Cycles" alt="Gold Cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br>
<b><br>
HUI GOLD STOCK INDEX</b><br>
Intermediate Term Trend ~ Bearish<br>
Intermediate Term Moving Averages – 180.08 – 184.95<br>
<br>
We have reached the line on the HUI chart that has been penetrated three times but each time provided a low from which the HUI has bounced. It happened again yesterday but at the momentm, odds favor we’re going to head towards support in the 140-144 area,<br>
<br>
All trends remain down at the moment and it takes a close above 185 to neutralize the downtrend.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/HUI4hr11Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b><br>
NUGT</b><br>
Intermediate Trend –Bearish<br>
Moving Averages – 13.19– 14.24<br>
<br>
As long as NUGT is below the moving averages the intermediate term favors lower and we need a close above 14 in order to neutralize the current downtrend.<br>
<br>
Support is the 7-8 area and resistance 13-15.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/NUGT4hr11Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b><br>
Gold Medium Term</b><br>
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361<br>
Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481<br>
Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1233 – 1247<br>
<br>
One of the things we said when gold made its low in November of 2014 was that it did not favor (and still doesn’t favor) it being the final low. The reason we said that is because gold did not touch a trend line on the chart when the low was made and it is a very rare thing that a final bear market low would happen without touching a trend line. Not impossible, but very rare.<br>
<br>
On the other hand we stated during the rally from November to January that the bull market in gold can ONLY resume if we take out the dual triple green channel lines and make it support. Price reached the middle line at the triple green trend line and then turned back down and has not looked back since. And that’s really the bottom line. In order for the gold market to resume its bullish form gold absolutely must make the triple green channel line a price support point and not resistance. In Addition the blue moving average has to cross above the red in order to confirm the trend change. Until that time, the downtrend remains intact.<br>
<br>
Odds favor gold will make a new yearly low as Platinum has already done so.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/XGLDwkly11Mar2015.gif" title="HUI gold stock index price chart" alt="HUI gold stock index price chart" width="690" height="421" border="0" style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: large;"><br>
<br>
<br>
GOLD ETF GLD<br>
Moving Average Trend ~ 115.15 – 116.09 – Bearish<br>
Building up for one position, so it’s not a backing up the truck purchase.<br>
This should be 1 stock position in your portfolio – NO MORE THAN THAT. BGT ¼ of a position at 153 on 3/7/13 and ¼ at 145 on 4/14/13 and ¼ at 131 on 4/16 and ¼ at 125 on 6/20<br>
<br>
The intermediate term remains down. Resistance is 115-116 and then 120-121. It takes a close above 116 at the moving averages to neutralize the shorter term down trends.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GLD4hr11Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b><br>
GDX</b><br>
Intermediate term Trend 20.04 – 20.56 ~ Bearish<br>
<br>
Resistance is the moving averages at 20.23-20.70 and short term support is the lower green at the 16.20-16.80 area.<br>
<br>
It takes a close above the moving averages at 20.04-20.56 to neutralize the short term downtrend.<br>
<br>
<img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GDX4hr11Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br>
<br>
<b>What next?</b><br>
<br>
The short term trend is bearish and it takes a close above 1184 and the short term can resume on the downside. IT is possible we can make the low for this week on Wednesday or Thursday morning at the 1142-1146 area.<br>
<br>
<b>Bottom Line<br>
<br></b> Gold remains in a bear market with new lows coming in 2015.<br>
<br>
<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3249537
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3249537Bill DowneyMon, 09 Mar 2015 16:12:35 GMTGold will most likely make a new low under 1130 this year.<font face="Verdana"><font style="font-size: 12px;">It is only a matter of time until the Euro collapses sinking into the abyss. The French presidential election could be the straw that stars the disintegration of the Euro. The reason is very clear. The economic abyss with youth unemployment over 60% warns there is the complete failure to create new jobs and overall 20% unemployment in Euroland would mean the end of the single currency with massive civil unrest. The problem is NOT Greece. Greece is illustrating the problem. Europe is holding on for dear life, but the end-game was began in 2008. That was the fateful year the Euro peaked. It was the end of times for Europe. The mindless people still think that a strong currency is like a stock and it is strength rather than weakness. This stems from the entire mixed up idea of inflation and deflation. The higher a currency in price, the more deflation one sees rather than inflation for assets are on the OPPOSITE side of a currency. Those touting a return to a gold standard are wishing for deflation where assets decline along with wages.<br>
<br>
The economics behind the Euro are a total disaster. The fatal flaw was the refusal to consolidate the debts of members as completing the requirement for a single currency to be a single debt. This is what we get when lawyers run the state. They know how to write laws and punish people who do not comply. They do not understand the economy or human nature.<br>
<br>
<strong>Euro Sinking</strong><br>
<br>
German debt is soon to explode. Then we have the implosion of the banking system for their entire reserves are based upon politically correct investment into government debt of all members. This is a Greek Tragedy mixed with a comedy of errors and people in Brussels refusing to admit they screwed up big time. They are refusing to concede the ship is sinking.<br>
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<strong>Gold Rally Fails, So Where Does This Leave Us?</strong><br>
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It certainly was a disappointing end to the week for the gold bulls. Despite initially holding up well from that $1184-$1206 resistance zone I talked about in my previous articles, Friday's market shenanigans well and truly busted any hopes of a sustained rally as gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) dropped hard and closed the week at $1167 for an overall loss of 3.75%.<br>
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The gold miners were hit even harder with the majors (NYSEARCA:GDX) losing 12.69% this week (7.47% on Friday alone), and the juniors (NYSEARCA:GDXJ) losing 11.892% (7.25% on Friday). All in all not so pretty for the crowd that feel the lows of November 2014 marked the end of the bear market, and a sure footed step for those that feel we have new lows to come.<br>
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When my primary expectation fails to play out, after the sulking period has passed (ha!), I tend to review market news for an idea of what may be affecting sentiment and I zoom out to the longer term charts to review areas of support and resistance that may come into play in the intermediate term. This week the primary focus will be on the longer term prospects for gold and precious metals, although I will of course make a short term forecast as usual.<br></font><b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">Good News is Always Good News, Right?</font></b><br>
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On Friday we had the Non-Farm Payrolls report announced, and it most definitely acted as a catalyst for volatility in the markets. The report showed that the number of jobs created in February rose to 295,000 and unemployment dropped to 5.5%, with both figures soundly beating consensus analyst estimates.<br>
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The sell-off was in stark contrast to the good news reported, and seems to have been induced by the notion that the Federal Reserve will now increase the US base rate in June (or perhaps September) of this year. The current rate of 0.25% is certainly at odds with the increasing strength of the US economy, and many analysts feel that the Fed will have no choice but to act.<br>
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Since lower unemployment and higher job creation figures point to a financially healthier consumer and thus better prospects for most US companies, you could be wondering why stocks fell. More than anything else I would attribute the decline to the fact that markets don't like the unexpected, and this report beat expectations by a long way. Market participants are now jostling for position and making changes to their allocation, with a healthy portion withdrawing into wait and see mode and we could now see a short term small correction play out.<br>
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Once we have clarity and investors have regained a firm grasp of market conditions, you can expect to see the broad equity markets go higher once again. The last 35 years' statistics seem to bear this out, with pullbacks not uncommon in the months preceding a hike, and generally bullish performance in the months after.<br></font><b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">What Would a Rate Hike Mean for Gold &amp; Bond Markets?<br></font></b><br>
<font style="font-size: 12px;">For gold the implications are a little murkier than the broad equity markets. On the one hand we have a strong US Dollar putting pressure on the price, and on the other we have rate hikes which are often a sign that inflation is rising or at least on the horizon.<br>
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We saw the reaction in the gold price yesterday, so it is reasonably safe to say that in the short term gold may react negatively to a rate increase, but longer term I am of the opinion that a steadily rising interest rate will stimulate credit markets as people rush to secure lending while interest terms are still low, and ultimately will result in inflation which will be generally good for all assets, gold included.<br>
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When it comes to gold and interest rates, the overall effect is different depending where we are on the overall global cycles. Thus while rising rates will be viewed negatively at first, it will shift and gold will rise along with interest rates just like it did from 1968 to 1980.<br>
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The other aspect is what a rate hike will do to bond markets. Again we saw yesterday the effect on bonds, as holders of debt re-assess their positioning in light of growing inflation expectations. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the revenue stream a bond creates, so yields rise to compensate the greater risk to holders.<br>
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However, with all the problems in the Eurozone I am firmly of the belief that the US bond market will remain attractive to investors, especially when Greece defaults in a few months' time and yet more capital flows into the dollar and dollar denominated assets for safe haven. Apologies to whomever I stole this phrase from, but the US bond market remains the best dirty shirt in the laundry and it won't be long before Eurobond holders wake up to that fact. We should therefore not see a full blown downturn in this market just yet, even with interest rates set to rise.<br>
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<b>Gold Chart</b><br>
While the flush out for gold was (as it usually is) the Friday NFP report, the kiss of death happened the previous week when PLATINUM made a new yearly. Odds favor that gold and silver will most likely do the same. Support for gold is the 1150-1160 area and then the 2014 low at 1130. Odds favor that low is not going to hold and golds next target (not the final one) will become the 1080-1100 area. On a longer term basis odds still favor the low in gold has a decent chance of being this year in the 850-900 area. Resistance 1175-1180 and 1188-1198. In summary the trend remains down in gold.<br>
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<img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/Gol8Hr9Mar2015.gif" border="0"><br>
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<font style="font-size: 12px;">Gold Cycles</font></b><br>
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Then next short term cycle is due March 20th (plus or minus 72 hours). That is also the time for the medium term cycle . Any new low under 1160 in gold will favor the short term trend lower into that March 20th date.<br>
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<img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/GolCyc9Mar2015.gif" border="0"><br>
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<strong>Silver</strong></font></font>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;">Lets look at the longer term for silver. &nbsp;For all intents and purposes silver remains supported at the LAST uptrend line near the 1600 dollar area. &nbsp;It tried to take out the medium term moving averages but was unable to do so. &nbsp; If silver loses this area of support then the move down could see 1250. &nbsp;In summary, &nbsp;all trends remain down in silver.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 12px;"><img width="690" height="444" title="" alt="" src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/IntraDay/XslvWkly3Mar2015.gif" border="0"><br></font></p>
<p><font style="font-size: 12px;">&nbsp;</font></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3245419
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3245419Bill DowneyMon, 02 Mar 2015 16:11:29 GMTGold in short term trade range 1190-1225<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>Summary</b></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Gold remains in a trade range of 1190 to 1225. If gold can get above 1225 on Monday then we’ll look for 1239-1247 as the next resistance target. &nbsp; On the downside, any break below 1188 will favor gold reaching 1155-1172.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>Gold Cycles</b></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Gold is basically running out of time on the short term and the next CYCLE is due March 3rd (Plus or minus 72 hours). If gold can’t get above 1222 pretty soon, get the helmets ready as we’re going to need them.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Weekly/GolCyc1Mar2015.gif" title="gold cycles" alt="gold cycles" width="690" height="444" border="0"><br></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>HUI GOLD STOCK INDEX</b></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Intermediate Term Trend ~ Neutral</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Intermediate Term Moving Averages – 190.43 – 192.48</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">We’ve been discussing the 174-184 area as support for a few weeks and price traded there for a good portion of last week. &nbsp;The intermediate term trend is neutral but the key really is whether the gold stocks are ready to make the moving averages support. &nbsp;We are at them now.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Resistance is the 203-210 area this week and support remains 174-184.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/HUI4hr1Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>Gold Medium Term</b></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Long term Moving averages 1401 – 1481</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Medium Term Trend ~Bearish 1238 – 1249</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">On the upside, the important thing was the rejection of price at the triple green trend line. In order for gold to get bullish on the medium term, it must make this triple line SUPPORT and not resistance. That is the bottom line.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/XGLDwkly1Mar2015a.gif" title="gold weekly price chart" alt="gold weekly price chart" width="622" height="391" border="0"><br></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>GOLD ETF GLD</b></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Moving Average Trend ~ 117.29 – 118.38 – Bearish</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Support is that lower line in the 114 area. There’s another line just underneath that one at 113 that will be next support if this line fails. That line at 112-113 is the last support on the chart for about 50 dollars in gold so it’s a must hold at one of these two trend lines. If that line at 113 gives, the drop will be swift.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">The intermediate term remains down. We need to hold one of these two trend lines. Resistance is 117-118.50 and then 120-121. &nbsp;It takes a close above 118.50 to neutralize the shorter term trends.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><img src="http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2015/March/Daily/GLD4hr1Mar2015.gif" title="" alt="" width="690" height="421" border="0"><br></p>
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<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>What next?</b><br></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">The short term moving averages have crossed but gold needs a close above 1222-1225 in order to favor higher prices towards 1239-1255. &nbsp;</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">On the downside it comes down to whether we hold 1188. Any break there and 1155-1172 will become the next targets. &nbsp;Any close below 1202 will put the short term trend back into neutral.</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">The next short term cycle turn is due March 5th (plus or minus 72 hours). &nbsp;</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b>Bottom Line</b></p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Gold is stuck in a trading range of 1190-1225.&nbsp;</p>
<p style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Until we close above 1222-1225 the short term can still turn lower.</p>
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<p><br></p>http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3239103
http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeBlog/3239103Bill DowneyThu, 26 Feb 2015 14:59:58 GMTThe short and medium term charts and price points for gold & silver<p><span style="">Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange are firm around $4-$5 an ounce over the global spot price as buyers returned to the market after the Feb. 18-24 holiday in China.</span><br></p>
<p>"Physical gold demand appears to be picking up again now that Chinese traders have returned after the New Year celebrations," Commerzbank said in a note. "This is reflected in the premiums being paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange."</p>
<p>Data showed on Thursday that China's gold imports from Hong Kong rose in January from the previous month, reflecting increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. Net gold imports from Hong Kong climbed to 76.118 tonnes last month from a three-month low of 71.381 tonnes in December.</p>
<p>Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates.</p>
<p>Since then, some analysts have shifted expectations for the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 to happen in September or later this year, instead of June as previously expected.</p>
<p>"The combination of China returning, Yellen pushing the can further out, bond yields lower and exchange-traded product demand picking up has helped create a floor following a $117 sell-off (in gold) since January," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said.</p>
<p><b>Gold Chart</b></p>
<p>Gold held our 1188 support point this week with an 1190 low. Now we have reached 1st weekly resistance 1218-1225. It is possible that this will be gold's high for this week. However a close above 1222-1225 will favor higher to 1239-1244 next week. The new short term cycle arrives on March 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).</p>
<p>In summary the test of the downtrend line of 2014 is complete and the 2015 uptrend is still in play. Be aware however, that the pattern (so far) is not a strong one for gold. That can change but we need a weekly close above 1222-1225 for starters in order for that to develop further. Otherwise metals can still be vulnerable to the downside.</p>
<p>Support on Thursday