Staff Debate: Overrated, Underrated Teams, Upsets and the CAA

After a crazy week in lacrosse, IL staff members Zach Babo, Terry Foy, John Jiloty and Geoff Shannon give their take on some debate questions.

Topics discussed are last week's upsets, overrated/underrated teams, Hopkins-UVa and the CAA.

Lots of upsets this week. Which was the most surprising?

Zach Babo: I'll say Penn over Princeton, just because of how much history wasn't on the side of the Quakers. Nearly 40 years since Penn last beat the Tigers, that just breeds doubt. Last year I saw Penn look like they would finally break the streak, just to lose in OT 11-10. I don't care that Princeton is down and Penn is up this year, considering no Penn player was even a glimmer in his father's eye last time the Quakers downed Princeton, that is a big win.

Terry Foy: I’m going with Robert Morris over Bucknell. The Bison were 6-1 entering the contest, having handed Villanova their only loss and dropped a two-goal decision versus Penn, while the Colonials started 1-3, losing to Hobart and Colgate and struggling with Manhattan and Detroit-Mercy. The past performance comparison favored Bucknell. But more significant to me is the way in which RMU won —the Colonials’ 46th-ranked defense held Bucknell’s 21st-ranked offense to 5.57 goals fewer than their season average. Had Robert Morris and their top-ranked offense from a year ago won a shootout, it’d have made more sense to me. Now they are rolling, winners of four straight, heading into NEC play.

John Jiloty: How about previously winless Marist over Albany this week? Thanks to wins over UMass, Ohio State and Delaware, the Danes climbed all the way to No. 15 in this week’s Nike/IL Media Poll before falling Tuesday to a Marist team coming off a 12-10 loss to Siena. The Danes face a tough stretch ahead with Bucknell, Harvard, Hopkins, Vermont, UMBC and Stony Brook in the next month. So veering off course against Marist makes it even harder to get back on the road.

Geoff Shannon: Penn’s victory over Princeton. The Tigers were on a two-game losing streak, and a turnaround win against an Ivy League opponent would have made them a not great but otherwise healthy 2-3. The young Quakers took it to Princeton, however for a dominant 8-3 victory. Injuries have crippled the Tigers in the early season, so now the focus should be on setting themselves up for a spot in the Ivy League tournament and let the chips fall where they may.

In the current Nike/IL Media Poll. Who’s the most overrated/underrated?

Zach Babo: I am going to say Stony Brook is the most overrated at #10, because at 3-3, with no quality wins, I am not sure what makes them a top team, other than a close loss to Virginia, and if that is the metric we are using, than Hopkins should be ranked ahead of the Seawolves since the Jays have a better record and have a 2OT loss to a Syracuse team that Stony Brook lost to in 2OTs. I am going to go completely out of left field here and say Notre Dame is the most underrated. They are undefeated, just like Syracuse, so I think Notre Dame arguably is a more legitimate #2. Plus, with how teams have effectively slowed the game down and suffocated Syracuse's offense (something Virginia couldn't or wouldn't do), it's hard not to almost say the Irish might have an edge in their game over the Orange.

Terry Foy: I don’t particularly like this game because I view polls more as an indication/aggregation as which teams have accomplished what and less a predictor of which teams will do what, but the largest diversion from my vote in the polls — I had both Johns Hopkins and Albany five spots lower than the poll, and Yale as much higher than their spot at No. 19. Highest-scoring offense in Virginia vs. stingiest defense in Hopkins.

John Jiloty: Underrated: Hopkins. I gotta think the young Jays will continue to get better as the season progresses. Problem is they head into the stretch of their season that features Top 20 foes Virginia, UNC, Albany and Maryland. But I think that 5-4 double-OT near-win at Syracuse last Saturday will propel them to at least two wins in this four-game stretch. Overrated: Forty-two comments on this week’s poll?! Speaks to how much different this poll is likely to be next week. I have to go with the Long Islanders here: Stony Brook and Hofstra. Both lost to unranked teams last weekend, and the Seawolves got crushed by Cornell this week. Stony Brook beat Delaware (a win that looks better after the Hens beat Hofstra) and took Virginia to OT, and Hofstra beat Princeton (which doesn’t look as good now that the Tigers are out of the Top 20) and Harvard. But these teams need more marquee wins to still be in the Top 10 at this point, in my opinion. Both are Top 15 teams, but Top 10 might be a bit high at this point, given their body of work so far in 2011. Why don’t Hofstra and Stony Brook play each other??

Geoff Shannon: Overrated – Albany. Yeah, that Marist loss hurts I think. Still like them as a possible upset team in the America East tourney. Underrated – Cornell. Had them ranked #4 in the preseason, and while other teams are faltering the Big Red is hitting its stride at the right time. Like them in the No. 4 spot above Maryland and definitely Hofstra at this point.

Zach Babo: Just because Hopkins has the "stingiest defense" doesn't mean that they can't score, as evidenced by the Jays racking up 10, 16, 18, 10 and 16 goals in games earlier this year. Obviously everyone knows Virginia likes to light it up, so this is really going to come down to how Hopkins approaches the game and attempts to dictate tempo. If Dave Pietramala uses a strategy similar to what he deployed in the 5-4 2OT loss to Syracuse last week, this could be another game where maybe 10 total goals are scored. But Hopkins has ran with Virginia in the past, and if they play a little more wide open, which you know Virginia is game for, this could be a fun one with 20 or 25 tallies hitting the scoreboard.

Terry Foy: 18. I think I’ve set all my over/unders at 18 this year, for really no reason.

John Jiloty: This is an interesting one. I don’t think anyone would have picked nine as the goal total for JHU-Syracuse. But Hopkins had a pretty simple, smart strategy: win face-offs and then dominate possession. Syracuse’s defense is better than Virginia’s, so if the Jays can do the same thing against the Cavs and milk the clock the game will be similarly low-scoring. However, I remember that 16-15 Virginia-Hopkins game absolutely coming out of nowhere around this time in 2009. I’ll go with 23 combined goals, based on the assumption that Virginia’s offense has better, more dynamic dodgers than Syracuse’s and the Cavs’ defense isn’t as good as SU’s. So JHU and UVa will score more Saturday at Homewood Field.

Geoff Shannon: 15. Hopkins’ defensive unit isn’t afraid to throw the ol’ proverbial punch to the face against opposing attack unit, and the Cavaliers’ attackmen have struggled against aggressive defenses this season (see the Cornell game). Freshman Phil Castronova has helped stabilized the Blue Jays’ midfield defensive unit, but I expect Virginia’s middies will continue their recent production. Like a 9-6 game in favor of the Cavs, so 15 total goals.

Of the seven teams in the CAA, how many teams have a legit shot to win the conference?Of the seven teams in the CAA, how many teams have a legit shot to win the conference?

Zach Babo: I am going to say five. St. Joe's might pull an upset, but I don't think they can string enough wins together to qualify for the CAA tourney and then make a run through it. Penn State will continue to be an enigma this year. They will play well and win some games that they probably shouldn't, but I think the team is evolving so much under a new coaching staff that it will lack consistency down the stretch, and like St. Joe's, not put together enough good games to win the title. But Hofstra, UMass, Drexel, and then to a slightly lesser extent Towson and Delaware, I think they can swap enough wins that I couldn't feel confident enough in any of them right now to pick a clear favorite.

Terry Foy: Great question — 6. I’d only count out newcomer and winless St. Joe’s. Keep in mind that 2-4 Towson, who has yet to play a CAA game, was three goals away from a conference championship last season, and many around the program consider this team better than last year’s version, particularly once the offense fully finds its identity.

John Jiloty: Six. Outside of winless St. Joseph’s, each CAA team has at least one win over a Top 20 opponent: Penn State over UMass, Delaware over Hofstra, Towson over Stony Brook, Drexel over Albany, Hofstra over Harvard, UMass over Army. That’s pretty amazing.

Geoff Shannon: The real question is, who’s going to find their rhythm in the second half of the season and make a run at the AQ. Penn State historically had strong second half runs, and Tambroni will have his guys geared up for that. Towson is a young team in certain aspect, and is starting to find its own pace on offense. I like those two. Of course, this is a conference where Hofstra made the NCAA Tournament without qualifying for the conference tourney, so this all could be moot.