Posted - 08/09/2012 : 00:05:48 Which Penguin will total more points in the 2012-13 season?

12 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First)

slozo

Posted - 08/12/2012 : 20:25:40

quote:Originally posted by Beans15

Slozo, this bet I suggested was above and beyond the 5 point bet. If you don't like the terms, don't take the bet. Simple. I don't see how it's skewed in my favour when you comments were:

"I would love to bet you and Beans on this . . . I think Malkin is an absolute LOCK to play at least 10 more games than Crosby, and is a total shoe-in to beat Crosby in points this year.

I'm THIS close to putting the 'ol slozo guarantee on it!"

I'm giving you the advantage in both. I am saying 10%, which means I am saying Crosby will miss now fewer than 8 games if Malkin plays the entire season. And help me understand how the bet is in my favour when the 'ol slozo guarantee stated Malkin as a "total shoe-in" to beat Crosby in points.

You said it.

As far as the other bet goes. Hall vs Kessel points race?? Is that a joke?? Kessel is coming off a career year in pts, assits, and goals. Hall is coming off a second season ending injury, this one requiring surgery. If we are talking about bets in one person's favour, look no further than that!!

Just a heads up, I will not likely take a Kessel vs Hall points race bet. It's unreasonable. If the bet is similar to last year where you are betting on a target for each player, fine. But head to head?? Not a chance.

Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!!

Scoring race, Beans. Like, scoring goals. For that, I think Kessel vs. Hall is somewhat fair, although certainly a bit in my favour perhaps - but not much at all.

When did I say points race? jeesh.

And I am not getting into why your bet is not my cup of tea, dude. I like simplicity . . . and frankly, in your 5 point bet last year, you achieved beauty in making it simple. I keep it simple here as well, adding Malkin vs Crosby points. I love the fact that in a couple of these, there is a chance to tie.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

Beans15

Posted - 08/10/2012 : 12:12:38 Slozo, this bet I suggested was above and beyond the 5 point bet. If you don't like the terms, don't take the bet. Simple. I don't see how it's skewed in my favour when you comments were:

"I would love to bet you and Beans on this . . . I think Malkin is an absolute LOCK to play at least 10 more games than Crosby, and is a total shoe-in to beat Crosby in points this year.

I'm THIS close to putting the 'ol slozo guarantee on it!"

I'm giving you the advantage in both. I am saying 10%, which means I am saying Crosby will miss now fewer than 8 games if Malkin plays the entire season. And help me understand how the bet is in my favour when the 'ol slozo guarantee stated Malkin as a "total shoe-in" to beat Crosby in points.

You said it.

As far as the other bet goes. Hall vs Kessel points race?? Is that a joke?? Kessel is coming off a career year in pts, assits, and goals. Hall is coming off a second season ending injury, this one requiring surgery. If we are talking about bets in one person's favour, look no further than that!!

Just a heads up, I will not likely take a Kessel vs Hall points race bet. It's unreasonable. If the bet is similar to last year where you are betting on a target for each player, fine. But head to head?? Not a chance.

Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!!

slozo

Posted - 08/10/2012 : 10:46:33

quote:Originally posted by Beans15

Slozo, the points you make are all valid and I can not argue much.Just for a different perspective, here is another interesting look at these two super duper players.

Malkin and Crosby have played within 10% (# of games in a season)of each other in 4 seasons (06/07, 08/09, 10/11). In those season, Crosby outpointed Malkin 2 of the 3 seasons. Overall, Crosby is +18 in goals, +36 in assists, +54 in pts.

Considering betting season is upon us, I am willing to begin the wagers. Slozo, as I made the terms of the big bet last season you are up for this season. However, I will drop this bet:

Sidney Crosby will outscore Yvgeni Malkin grant they both play the same number of games + or - 10%. For example, if Malkin plays all 82 games, Crosby must play at least 74 games to qualify.

The winner will reap the benefits of a posting of a topic and position of their choosing written by the loser. For example, if I win I can have Slozo make a post stating the Leafs lost the Phil Kessel trade and support with reasons why. If I lose, I may be posting about how the Oilers rebuild is flawed with a supporting argument.

Agreed??

Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!!

Well, first you tell me it's my turn to state the terms of this year's bet (it is); and then you go on to post terms to a bet that is totally skewed in your favour. The whole point of this topic/discussion is who will get more points this upcoming season, PERIOD. The whole point is an educated guess on Crosby's health, and to a lesser extent Malkin's health. We both know that when both are fully healthy, it's probably Crosby who will outpoint the other.

I plan on doing a similar 5 point bet like you did with me last year, and I am going to add this to my 5 points. So far, I have in my head . . .- Leafs make/don't make playoffs (have to keep that one in there)- Kessel vs Hall scoring race- Malkin vs Crosby points race

I haven't decided on the other two yet, but I will post in full detail and glorious oratory the entire proposed bet in a new thread when I get to it, and we'll see if you accept then.

For this thread,I would like to add one thing: Crosby has not played more than 41 games the last two seasons. He has multiple concussions, and he is clearly a player who won't hesitate to sit out for a two or three week period when he is not 100% after a hit that gives him even minor symptoms of any sort. So basically we have a situation where he should be physically fit and recovered, but is certainly in a category where he is at much greater risk to get re-injured (and be off for a prolonged period of time).

Malkin, on the other hand, has had physical injuries, but none to the head, and has been healthy and healed since the beginning of last year . . . where he finished another MVP season.

So let's not try to state that I am somehow overreaching in my opinion that I am banking on him getting injured. Statistically, when I crunch my numbers and data on this, I see a very, very high statsistical probability that Crosby plays south of 60 games. The Pens will not take any chances with their star/franchise player; he is a high risk to get re-concussed; and he has shown that he will remain on the sidelines until he is 100%.

Mario 66 - I am not banking on a concussion to "linger" for Crosby, and your comment just shows that you have not educated yourself on this subject. Crosby only came back when he had zero concussion symptoms, and he will continue to not play hockey if he ever has a reoccurrence of any kind of concussion symptoms. He has shown us that, he has done that, and been quite open about it. So, although I wish the best for the guy, and certainly hold no ill will toward the dude, I think there is a huge risk that he sits out a minimum of 2, 3 weeks because of this.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

Beans15

Posted - 08/10/2012 : 10:25:17 Slozo, the points you make are all valid and I can not argue much.Just for a different perspective, here is another interesting look at these two super duper players.

Malkin and Crosby have played within 10% (# of games in a season)of each other in seasons (06/07, 08/09, 10/11). In those season, Crosby outpointed Malkin 2 of the 3 seasons. Overall, Crosby is +18 in goals, +36 in assists, +54 in pts.

Considering betting season is upon us, I am willing to begin the wagers. Slozo, as I made the terms of the big bet last season you are up for this season. However, I will drop this bet:

Sidney Crosby will outscore Yvgeni Malkin grant they both play the same number of games + or - 10%. For example, if Malkin plays all 82 games, Crosby must play at least 74 games to qualify.

The winner will reap the benefits of a posting of a topic and position of their choosing written by the loser. For example, if I win I can have Slozo make a post stating the Leafs lost the Phil Kessel trade and support with reasons why. If I lose, I may be posting about how the Oilers rebuild is flawed with a supporting argument.

Agreed??

Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!!

Mario 66

Posted - 08/10/2012 : 10:17:13 Slozo, you can sign me up for that bet as well if you like. Many people continue to bank on repeated concusions going forward & forget that he went undiagnosed with a slipped disk in his neck for almost a year. The pressure from the slipped disc would only further trigger the headaches & dizzy spells during that period of time. After the slipped disc was discovered Crosby came back and was once again the best player in the game. Don't forget he took a solid pounding & a couple deliberate head shots from the Flyers without any ill effect.

If he plays 65 - 70 games he will beat Malkin by 10+ points.

You may think my opinion is assinine, but your banking on a concussion problem to linger while I am banking on hands down the best player of his generation to be just that the best. I like my chances knowing full well 100+ points is a given while repeated concussions are a potential even though yourself & I am sure many others think it is a given; which can be made a logical argument but it is not 100% proven until / if the next one occurs.

You can look at stats, but it really comes down to who you think will play the most games.

Most people would agree that Crosby will average more points-per-game than Malkin, so if they play the same number of games, Crosby is more likely to have more points than Malkin.

And I agree with the opinion that Crosby would probably get more points than Malkin even if he played 10 less games than Malkin. (Assuming they both play near a full season. This logic would not work if Crosby only played 10 games this season, and Malkin ended up playing 20 games.)

So it comes down to guesswork. Which player is most likely to have a repeat (or new) injury, and to what extent?

I think Crosby is most likely to have a repeat injury (concussion related would be my guess, but not my hope), and more likely than Malkin to be injured, and/or for Malkin to be injured for an extended period of time.

But like others, my opinion is based on a feeling more than anything else.

It will be interesting to see which player gets picked first in hockey drafts. Right now, I would give a slight (emphasis on slight) preference to picking Malkin (if I was picking first), but by draft time, I could very well change my mind!

Pasty7

Posted - 08/10/2012 : 08:07:35

quote:Originally posted by slozo

quote:Originally posted by Pasty7

Yeah I think Crosby took enough time and was careful enough with this injury that their should be no ill effects. Furthurmore much like Kessel last year this is Crosby's first summer where he can train and prepare for the new season instead of rehabbing an injury, I'm going out on a limb but i'm gonna say Crosby goes on a Torrent pace playing at least 75 games scoring at near 135 points, Malikin dropping to 90 ish points ,

I would love to bet you and Beans on this . . . I think Malkin is an absolute LOCK to play at least 10 more games than Crosby, and is a total shoe-in to beat Crosby in points this year.

I'm THIS close to putting the 'ol slozo guarantee on it!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

I wouldn't take the bet of Malkin Playing at least 10 more games because i think you are right that could happen but even if Malkin plays 10 more games I think Crosby in 60 games could score more than the entire league in 82 games, just a personal opinion, but I wouldn't bet on any of this because it's more than a feeling than anything else

Yeah I think Crosby took enough time and was careful enough with this injury that their should be no ill effects. Furthurmore much like Kessel last year this is Crosby's first summer where he can train and prepare for the new season instead of rehabbing an injury, I'm going out on a limb but i'm gonna say Crosby goes on a Torrent pace playing at least 75 games scoring at near 135 points, Malikin dropping to 90 ish points ,

I would love to bet you and Beans on this . . . I think Malkin is an absolute LOCK to play at least 10 more games than Crosby, and is a total shoe-in to beat Crosby in points this year.

I'm THIS close to putting the 'ol slozo guarantee on it!

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

Pasty7

Posted - 08/10/2012 : 06:49:45 Yeah I think Crosby took enough time and was careful enough with this injury that their should be no ill effects. Furthurmore much like Kessel last year this is Crosby's first summer where he can train and prepare for the new season instead of rehabbing an injury, I'm going out on a limb but i'm gonna say Crosby goes on a Torrent pace playing at least 75 games scoring at near 135 points, Malikin dropping to 90 ish points ,

Why can't Crosby play more than 50 games?? Is it the hangover from his 'soft tissue' injury (aka a serious and significant concussion)??

Malkin also has a history of being a bit fragile. He has averaged only 60 games over the past 3 seasons and has 6 different stretched on IR from knee or lower body injuries. Included is a 30+ game stint for knee surgery.

Also, I don't think they are relatively close on their PPG. Of the 6 seasons they have both been in the league, Crosby's PPG was better than Malkin's in 5 of those 6 seasons. Only 2 of the seasons are relatively close. Below is the breakdown of the PPG by season (Malkin the first #, Crosby the second #)

If both players are healthy, career PPG tells us that Malkin will have around 100 pts over an 82 games season where Crosby will have 115. Using the past three seasons at an indicator, Malkin would still have around 100 pts where Crosby would be closer to 120.

I would say that Malkin and Crosby are nearly equal in how frail they are. Both play at high speed, bang in the corners, and are hunted men. For that reason, I put the likelihood of both players in a similar number of games. Using that logic, and their historic trends, I say Crosby will outpoint Malkint.

My guess this year is that both players get in around 70 games. Crosby will have 110 pts and Malkin will have 95 pts.

Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!!

For my money, you proved my point, Beans.

If the "average" is used (and it's probably the best we can do at this point, with so many predictive factors involved), then over 82 games, you say there might be around a 15 point difference.

But let's use proper samples for predicting. You and I were on the "same team" in the Mario vs. Wayne debate, and part of that was using smaller games per season sample sizes, and how the ppg was inflated a bit because of the "rest" periods. The same applies here, Beans. Let's see the "full season" averages, and then we can weight afterward how likely that full season will be.

We should actually calculate BOTH players for their ppg average whenever they played 70 or more games.

Truthfully Beans, putting aside those rookie seasons - where Crosby had a much better year than Malkin - there is hardly anything between them. But, I won't change the rules to fit my argument, I'll stick to what I said. So going by these years, the PPG averages are:

So, even if you round UP for Crosby and give him 112 points in an 82 game season . . . it's a whole 6 points more. For Crosby to be even with Malkin at 106 pts using this formula, he would play 78 games.

So essentially Beans, what you are telling me is that Crosby is a lock to play almost the exact same amount of games as Malkin - within 4 games - to get more points than him.

Do we need to do an injury analysis and risk assessment too between the two players, or is this already obvious enough what the clear and prudent choice should be?

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

Beans15

Posted - 08/09/2012 : 09:31:44 Why can't Crosby play more than 50 games?? Is it the hangover from his 'soft tissue' injury (aka a serious and significant concussion)??

Malkin also has a history of being a bit fragile. He has averaged only 60 games over the past 3 seasons and has 6 different stretched on IR from knee or lower body injuries. Included is a 30+ game stint for knee surgery.

Also, I don't think they are relatively close on their PPG. Of the 6 seasons they have both been in the league, Crosby's PPG was better than Malkin's in 5 of those 6 seasons. Only 2 of the seasons are relatively close. Below is the breakdown of the PPG by season (Malkin the first #, Crosby the second #)

If both players are healthy, career PPG tells us that Malkin will have around 100 pts over an 82 games season where Crosby will have 115. Using the past three seasons at an indicator, Malkin would still have around 100 pts where Crosby would be closer to 120.

I would say that Malkin and Crosby are nearly equal in how frail they are. Both play at high speed, bang in the corners, and are hunted men. For that reason, I put the likelihood of both players in a similar number of games. Using that logic, and their historic trends, I say Crosby will outpoint Malkint.

My guess this year is that both players get in around 70 games. Crosby will have 110 pts and Malkin will have 95 pts.

Daniel Alfredsson is the MVP of the universe. All hail the Ottawa Senators!!!!!

slozo

Posted - 08/09/2012 : 07:34:07 There is no way I can bank on Sid the Kid playing more than 45, 50 games. I just can't. I can, however, bank on Malkin (safely) playing 75.

With that disparity, and knowing that on a per game basis they are relatively close anyways, it's an easy call.