Kunstler: The Summer of Discontent

The ill-feeling among leaders of the G-7 nations — essentially, the West plus Japan — was mirrored early this morning in the puking financial market futures, so odious, apparently, is the presence of America’s Golden Golem of Greatness at the Quebec meet-up of First World poobahs. It’s hard to blame them. The GGG refuses to play nice in the sandbox of the old order.

Like many observers here in the USA, I can’t tell exactly whether Donald Trump is out of his mind or justifiably blowing up out-of-date relationships and conventions in a world that is desperately seeking a new disposition of things. The West had a mighty good run in the decades since the fiascos of the mid-20th century. My guess is that we’re witnessing a slow-burning panic over the impossibility of maintaining the enviable standard of living we’ve all enjoyed.

All the jabber is about trade and obstacles to trade, but the real action probably emanates from the energy sector, especially oil. The G-7 nations are nothing without it, and the supply is getting sketchy at the margins in a way that probably and rightfully scares them. I’d suppose, for instance, that the recent run-up in oil prices from $40-a barrel to nearly $80 has had the usual effect of dampening economic activity worldwide. For some odd reason, the media doesn’t pay attention to any of that. But it’s become virtually an axiom that oil over $75-a-barrel smashes economies while oil under $75-a-barrel crushes oil companies.

Mr. Trump probably believes that the USA is in the catbird seat with oil because of the so-called “shale oil miracle.” If so, he is no more deluded than the rest of his fellow citizens, including government officials and journalists, who have failed to notice that the economics of shale oil don’t pencil out — or are afraid to say. The oil companies are not making a red cent at it, despite the record-breaking production numbers that recently exceeded the previous all-time-peak set in 1970. The public believes that we’re “energy independent” now, which is simply not true because we still import way more oil than we export: 10.7 million barrels incoming versus 7.1 million barrels a week outgoing (US EIA).

Shale oil is not a miracle so much as a spectacular stunt: how to leverage cheap debt for a short-term bump in resource extraction at the expense of a future that will surely be starved for oil. Now that the world is having major problems with excessive debt, it is also going to have major problems with oil. The quarrels over trade arise from this unacknowledged predicament: there will be less of everything that the economically hyper-developed nations want and need, including capital. So, what’s shaping up is a fight over the table-scraps of the banquet that is shutting down.

That quandary is surely enough to make powerful nations very nervous. It may also prompt them to actions and outcomes that were previously unthinkable. At the moment the excessive debt threatens to blow up the European Union, which is liable to be a much bigger problem for the EU than anything Trump is up to. It has been an admirably stable era for Europe and Japan, and I suppose the Boomers and X gens don’t really remember a time not so long ago when Europe was a cauldron of tribal hatreds and stupendous violence, with Japan marching all over East Asia, wrecking things.

There is also surprisingly little critical commentary on the notion that Mr. Trump is seeking to “re-industrialize” America. It’s perhaps an understandable wish to return to the magical prosperity of yesteryear. But things have changed. And if wishes were fishes, the state of the earth’s oceans is chastening to enough to give you the heebie-jeebies. Anyway, we’re not going back to the Detroit of 1957. We’ll be fortunate if we can turn out brooms and scythes twenty years from now, let alone flying Teslas.

This will be the summer of discontent for the West especially. The fact that populism is still a rising force among these nations is a clue of broad public skepticism about maintaining the current order. No wonder the massive bureaucracies vested in that order are freaking out. I’m not sure Mr. Trump even knows or appreciates just how he represents these dangerous dynamics.

Americans are clearly unable to comprehend mathematics taught to a 6-year-old. Neither can Mr Kunstler.
America produces 10.5MBPD it consumes 18.5MBPD, therefore, the 8MBPD just magically appears at the pumps.
America’s net imports are 8MBPD.

Davy on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 7:35 pm

Kevin, you being Australian I would expect that out of you. Did you consider the export of finished product and different varieties of crude? Sounds like you did a 3rd grade addition subtraction exercise instead of digging deeper into the material:

JuanP on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 7:48 pm

Kevin C, I will tell you the same thing I just told Dave T on another thread: Making sense on this board is not allowed! You’d better start spewing nonsense or you will make a lot of enemies here! LOL!

JuanP on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 7:52 pm

“Like many observers here in the USA, I can’t tell exactly whether Donald Trump is out of his mind or justifiably blowing up out-of-date relationships and conventions in a world that is desperately seeking a new disposition of things.”
I choose door # 1. But the end results are the same. I just have one thing to say. Go Trump! Reelect Trump! Trump 2020! I am loving this shite!

Bony Joe on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 8:10 pm

To “Davy” :

I note that your insulting comments regarding other posters represent a form of self-reflection and self-loathing.

Davy on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 8:12 pm

Right Bony, are you a psychologist? We have lots of work to do here. Do you wanna help me clean things up?. .

Bony Joe on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 8:21 pm

To “Juan P” :

You represent a different form of insanity. How do you square your sincere hatred of USA with the fact that you reside within and enjoy the privileges afforded by the same country whose annihilation you so desperately wish for?

Boat on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 8:21 pm

Kevin C

The US is a net 2.7 mbpd importer the last quarter. Not 8. All those other imports are resold as crude or petrolium products. Those are American facts without foreign fake news. Lol

Now why would refiners import all that oil just to resell it. The US has cheap Nat gas to heat the shit. The US also has refineries owned by you foriegners, like 30% of US refining capacity.
The US also has to much light oil. So they mix it with heavy imports to resale or process. But no, the US does not consume all the imports. Less than 1/2.

Simple, Bony, I just want what is best for humanity and the US empire is not it, but I live here because my wife is happy here. You should do something for someone else sometime and you will understand. And today’s USA is not the USA I migrated to 27 years go, it is much, much, much, much worse. Do you understand now? I can’t understand anyone who likes what the USA has become myself. How can anyone like the most violent, agressive, abusive, criminal institution in human history? Maybe you are living in denial!

JuanP on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 9:30 pm

And, Bony, welcome to the board and I hope you stay. I really like the fact that you can write well even if you don’t like me! 😉

JuanP on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 10:28 pm

And, Bony, I don’t want the USA to be annihilated; I want the USA to stop attacking, bombing, and destroying other countries simply because they don’t agree with and submit to its will. And, I also want the USA to stop torturing and murdering innocent people throughout the worl on a daily. I understand how difficult it must be for you as an American to understand and accept what your country is; it is very hard for me, too, and I am not even an American.

Dr Bernanke knows the oil crisis is coming right around 2020..They know the world comes to an end when the oil starts to run out..

Cloggie on Fri, 8th Jun 2018 11:39 pm

“The fact that populism is still a rising force among these nations is a clue of broad public skepticism about maintaining the current order. No wonder the massive bureaucracies vested in that order are freaking out.“

Expect this to become the force to take over the old globalist order, not unlike what happened in the thirties.

In those days extreme nationalism was a defense mechanism against the communist threat. These days the existential threat for white civilization comes from the endless masses off the thirld world.

This fear is going to break the back of the old hlobalist order aka the West aka the US empire.

The populist revolution already succeeded in Russia, Eastern Europe and now in Austria and Italy, two countries already at the forefront of the nationalist movements in the thirties. On top of that, if hopefully Brexit succeeds, we in continental Europe get rid of Washington’s watchdog for the days after Trump, when the old globalist guard will return and attempt to restore its power and American supremacy over Europe.

Hard-Brexit scenario becoming realistic, opening up the possibility of a populist Europe after Merkel and a populist continental Europe, including Putin-Russia, redefining the West on, well, populist rather than globalist Anglo-Zionist terms.

Bye-bye George Soros.

Makati1 on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 5:06 am

“…we’re witnessing a slow-burning panic over the impossibility of maintaining the enviable standard of living we’ve all enjoyed. … the real action probably emanates from the energy sector, especially oil. The G-7 nations are nothing without it. … the economics of shale oil don’t pencil out … We’ll be fortunate if we can turn out brooms and scythes twenty years from now, let alone flying Teslas.”

BINGO!

However, his misstatement about “… the usual effect of dampening economic activity worldwide…” is incorrect. Asia is still growing at 6-7% annually.

“Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) is expected to remain strong and reach 6.3 percent in 2018, according to the latest World Bank regional economic forecast.”

“Expect this to become the force to take over the old globalist order, not unlike what happened in the thirties.”
Neder this is the 21st century with new realities. Your problem is you are stuck in the Nazi Germany of the 30’s before they destroyed themselves and Europe. This is much like the southerners here in the US that never left the Civil War.

“The populist revolution already succeeded in Russia, Eastern Europe and now in Austria and Italy”
Nonsense, there is no revolution n in these countries just discontent for the status quo that is now the Euro. Russia was taken over by a mafia Don.

Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 5:36 am

“However, his misstatement about “… the usual effect of dampening economic activity worldwide…” is incorrect. Asia is still growing at 6-7% annually.”
Used to be you didn’t believe in GDP as a real numbers, 3rd world, but I guess that is only case when you are discussing the west. Not all of Asia is growing at that rate and the economies like China and India it is not all healthy growth. Lots of issues and lots of dangers ahead for Asia. That is something you never discuss so to me that disqualifies as an honest contributor. You are just like you groupie nedernazi with personal agendas unsupported by a balanced reality of good and bad.

MASTERMIND on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 6:49 am

Madkat

Asian countries have been cooking their GDP numbers..You are so easily fooled..typical for a senile old person..

MM, the US has been cooking their books since 1971. If the Asian numbers are only 50% correct, they are still way better than the Us negative real numbers.

Besides, I see the growth happening here. It is not happening in the Us. I was just there (Us). The Us is decaying, not growing. Not even close. Denying the facts does not change them.

Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 7:03 am

Pretty obvious they all cook the books, 3rd world but it is worst in Asia especially China. Most of China’s numbers are bogus. There are many reports of this.

You don’t see shit 3rd world. You go to an airport occasionally and lived in Manila for a time. Big deal, Asia is huge and you have seen one city and now you are in a little shit hole town waiting for the next typhoon to make you homeless.

President Karzai of Afghanistan admits that the West is going nowhere in its efforts to defeat the Taliban. Ironically the Taliban was a creation of the CIA and trained them as mercenaries to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan and succeeded in that effort.

Now the Taliban seems to succeed in driving the US infidel out of that country as well.

Karzai says that a deal with the Taliban is inevitable. The Taliban gets most support from neighboring Pakistan, that also functions as a retreat for the Taliban.

Conclusion: in the context of the general planetary dumbing-down is the 7th century Muhamed on the march, world-wide, where western fools, err… “multiculturalists”… love to pretend to still believe that “integration” with these people is a serious possibility.

It isn’t.

The Soviet empire had to go because central planning doesn’t work. After 27 years Russia recovered and is yearning to join Europe where it belongs.

The US empire will have to go because multiculturalism doesn’t work. After a few decades, rump-America will recover as well and will also yearn to join European civilization, because that is where it belongs.

Cloggie on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 9:27 am

Live summer of discontent in London about the arrest of Tommy Robinson:

Wilders finished his speech, big success. Now flanked by 15 policemen, either to airport or jail.lol (probably the former).

Another major populist success.

Davy on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 9:50 am

“The US empire will have to go because multiculturalism doesn’t work. After a few decades, rump-America will recover as well and will also yearn to join European civilization, because that is where it belongs.“

Europe is the place where the originals populations are beginning the process of terminal decline with the inevitable multicultural results. In Europe’s case in a possibly incompatible form. The US is comfortable with multiculturalism with a degree of tension. Europe on the other hand has no tradition of it. Home country cultural assimilation is the key in Europe and now that is not working. In the US assimilation in multiculturalism is still working. In the US the process is breaking down but it still works.

Singapore is one of the most multicultural countries in the world..And they are one of the wealthiest countries per captia in the world..You are just scum fuck nazi neckbeard who wants to believe he is better than other people..

MASTERMIND on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 10:02 am

Clogg

You are a pathetic loser..OMG Steve Bannon, Putin, Trump, Spencer..You have so many cocks in your mouth at once…

joe on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 10:05 am

Ireland won’t reunite. The main reason is that positive sentimentalism is good. Brussels won’t pay for the massive welfare state the uk supports. The people of northern ireland might like the eu but they wont like the lack of good social housing and second rate healthcare provided by the irish state. A united ireland is a good border solution but not a serious one. The solution is none. Leave ireland alone, the entire northern province could become a free econonic zone like Singapore or the econonic zones in North Korea. Anything else is opening up a can of worms. It will almost certainly lead directly to a civil war and possibly cause a serious rift within the EU about whether or not to support it.

MASTERMIND on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 10:07 am

Clogg

The problems with the world and the OECD economics are energy related..The price of oil is way too high and our net energy EROEI is declining..You are deluding yourself into thinking the problems are political or racial..They are not..The global economy has been contracting for over four decades..And is ripe to totally collapse soon..

Singapore is a wealthy city, like NYC, not a country. Lefties exist and live in big cities, let them.

The folks from “fly-over country” however are vastly different and prefer to live among themselves, without ethnic competition. They have been marginalized since the sixties, but since Putin, Trump, Xi, Erdogan, Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland… they are losing majestically. Nobody gives a fuck anymore about CNN, Meryl Streep, Muslims, refugees, MTV, it’s game over for the globalists. What follows is mopping up operations and dismemberment of the Empire.

Anglo-Zionists are so 20th century. Just like communists. All we are stuck with is pathetic wannabee Trotzkiytes like yourself and a confused meathead, who nota bene voted for Trump, but has jumped on the globalist band-waggon afterwards. He’s not very bright. Fighting a rearguard-fight.

Cloggie on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 10:52 am

Ireland won’t reunite. The main reason is that positive sentimentalism is good. Brussels won’t pay for the massive welfare state the uk supports. The people of northern ireland might like the eu but they wont like the lack of good social housing and second rate healthcare provided by the irish state. A united ireland is a good border solution but not a serious one. The solution is none. Leave ireland alone, the entire northern province could become a free econonic zone like Singapore or the econonic zones in North Korea. Anything else is opening up a can of worms. It will almost certainly lead directly to a civil war and possibly cause a serious rift within the EU about whether or not to support it.

the 1990s saw the beginning of substantial economic growth. This period of growth became known as the Celtic Tiger.[78] The Republic’s real GDP grew by an average of 9.6% per annum between 1995 and 1999,[79] in which year the Republic joined the euro. In 2000, it was the sixth-richest country in the world in terms of GDP per capita.

“Yes, it will be like that, but may be worse with other extenuating circumstances such as war or the decline of international trade. Hyperinflation as happened in the Soviet and Post Soviet economy is a certainty.”

“Yes, it will be like that, but may be worse with other extenuating circumstances such as war or the decline of international trade. Hyperinflation as happened in the Soviet and Post Soviet economy is a certainty.”

Wiki says its an island country..You are just a pathetic lying low life neckbeard..ge a girlfriend and try to score before the social collapse hits..

Cloggie on Sat, 9th Jun 2018 12:27 pm

The full quote:

“Singapore (/ˈsɪŋ(ɡ)əpɔːr/ (About this sound listen)), officially the Republic of Singapore, is a sovereign city-state and island country in Southeast Asia. It lies one degree (137 kilometres or 85 miles) north of the equator, at the souther…”

So it is nominally a “country”, but in reality a big, globalist, rich CITY, a harbor city on top of that, filled with globalist=leftist people, who make their money through contacts all over the world. Just like NYC. Only with far less Jews.

Only in your deluded reality that is..looks like multiculturalism works well once you get everyone all mixed together..That is where the world is headed..White people only make up around 7 percent of the worlds total population. Learn to get along with others who are different than you..Dont be a racist bigoted blowhard..