Budget 2019: Look, what brokerages are baking in

Updated: 29 Jan 2019, 02:30 PM IST

The big buzz

Speculation has reached its peak, with the interim Budget just round the corner.

There are many questions doing the rounds. What shape will the government's farm relief package take, if any? And what about its fiscal discipline? Can the ruling party resist the temptation of going the populist way in an election year? What about capex revival?

Some of the leading brokerages have given their verdict and projections. Let's check them out. The big buzz

Nomura

MOSL

* The brokerage expects incentives to rural sector * Government may go in for high growth for FY20 * Capital spending may decline again in FY19

3/10

BCCL

Kotak

* We expect rural stimulus of 0.4-0.8% of GDP * Government may outline medium-term economic priorities * It's interesting to see if the focus will be on infrastructure expansion

4/10

BCCL

HSBC

* Expect government to meet FY19 fiscal target * There are chances of a slip in fiscal target on FY20 * Budget can see launch of new package for rural India * Continued support for small business is likely to be the key theme

5/10

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JM Financial

* Cost of any farm package would offer important signals * Expect incremental burden on the Centre’s finances to be limited

6/10

BCCL

Emkay

CLSA

* There may be limited scope for fiscal consolidation in FY20 * Bridging GST shortfall will be crucial for FY20 budget * Government to be hard-pressed to fund capex * We see pressure for expanding the farmer welfare programme

8/10

BCCL

CITI

* Budget 2019 may focus on rural India, SMEs & middle-class households * Expect limited fiscal space in Interim Budget * Gross market borrowing can be a cause of worry * We see an increase in exemptions limits for home loans * Auto may be in focus led by higher allocation to rural schemes

9/10

BCCL

Bofa-ML

* Expect fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP in FY20 * Government may try to address rural distress by Direct Income Transfer * See net central borrowing at Rs 5,069 billion in FY20