Welcome! This blog tracks the real estate market in the Central Shenandoah Valley, featuring market data and analysis, an exploration of common buying and selling questions, and candid commentary on all things real estate.

If you are interested in discussing any of the topics on this blog, or the details of your specific real estate situation, call or e-mail me!

Back in 2015, Lakeview decided to sell off as much as 75 acres of their land, moving from a 36 hole golf course to a 27 hole golf course. Many (myself included) speculated that this land would be purchased by a developer or builder as the land is located in the midst of many upper end single family home neighborhoods.

We were all wrong.

Fifty acres (as shown above) were sold by Lakeview to Sunnyside Retirement Community in January 2017, for $1.2M. So, it seems, you will not see new roads going in and houses built in that area in the near future.

But now we know a bit more what Sunnyside is planning for this newly acquired land.

Sunnyside plans to add 28 acres of the newly acquired land to their master plan, to include:

Home sales were up 16% in February -- with 80 home sales this February compared to 69 last February.

This piled on top of the slightly slower sales in January to mark a 3% YTD increase in the pace of home sales.

The annual pace of home sales has actually slowed over the past year -- showing a 4% decline to 1,265 home sales per year.

The median sales price has increased 4% over the past year to $199,900. Oh so close to $200K!

The median number of days it takes for a home to sell has dropped 21% in January/February to 42 days as compared to 53 days last January/February.

Over the past year, the median days on market has dropped 35% to 32 days!

January 2018 wasn't the best January in the past few years, though it wasn't the worst either. It was in the middle of the pack, as shown above. February, however, was a strong month of sales -- jumping out ahead past the past three months of February. It seems likely we'll see between 90 and 100 home sales in March.

The graph above is actually a bit of a warning against too much exuberance over the BEST January-February combo we've seen in any recent year. Because, look carefully at last year -- you'll note that 2017 home sales were ahead of 2016 all the way through the end of July. So, for the first seven months of the year, it looked like we were poised to break even more records for the number of home sales in this area. And then in August and September of last year, we fell behind, and never caught back up. So -- it is exciting to see record numbers of sales in the combined first two months of this year -- but it in no way means that we'll see an actual increase in annual sales by the time December 31 rolls around.

Having now brought you down to earth, I'll pump you up again. :-) The 85 and then 90 contracts seen in January/February of 2018 is a nice increase from last January/February when we saw 67 and then 87 contracts. So -- the faster (closed) sales pace may at least continue into March, and maybe April given the contracts signed to date.

Oh yes, and don't forget about those sinking inventory levels. The decline in home sales we saw in our local market in 2017 is considered by many to have been at least partially caused by consistent declines in the number of homes listed for sale. We have seen inventory levels drop for the past few years -- and the 27% decline from 402 homes to 295 homes over the past 12 months certainly does not help provide enough homes for an increasing pool of buyers to purchase. We should (??!??) see an increase in these inventory levels as we get into the Spring market -- but that theoretical increase never substantially materialized last year.

All of these market trends are tied up together, intertwined and interdependent upon each other. Here is another. One out of every two homes that sold in the past year (ok -- I rounded -- 49% if you need to know) went under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. This low inventory environment is causing buyers to be extremely fast to view and then consider homes as they are listed for sale.

Some people like to see lots of photographs. Others prefer to read the written description of a home and review the pertinent facts and figures. And yes, some folks best understand a home by studying the floor plan.

I can create a "blueprint" of your home to satisfy the desires of this third group of buyers, who are spatial (and special) beings.

Preparing your home to go on the market can be challenging (and tiring), and often sellers-to-be need a second (or third) set of eyes to provide suggestions about where to focus their time and energy. There are many different theories about how to best prepare your home to be on the market and viewed by buyers --- and ways of expressing those theories.

take a minimalistic approach, removing absolutely every knick knack in sight

removing all family photos

de-cluttering and get rid of extra "stuff"

remove furniture to create an open feel

stage the home with place settings on the dining table, and more

always have fresh flowers in the home

There are countless other theories, ideas or suggestions -- all of which can be helpful to consider as you are preparing to put your house on the market. Another perspective that I'd throw out there for your consideration is eliminating distractions and objections.

Distractions are the things that keep a prospective buyer from focusing on your house. That might be knick knacks, or family photos, or refrigerator magnets, or an overflowing pantry, or fascinating artwork, or an abundance of indoor plants, or a strange odor, or brightly colored wall hangings. Whatever it is --- if a buyer is focusing on one (or more) of these items, they're not focusing on your house. They're reading all of the Far Side comics on the fridge instead of marveling at the granite countertops, tile back splash, recessed lighting, and stainless steel appliances. They're amazed at how you fit 234 board games into the coat closet instead of taking in the quality workmanship of the trim detail in the foyer, and the mountain views out the picture window in the family room. As you prepare your home to go on the market, close your eyes for a few moments when standing at the entrance to each main living area. Then, open your eyes, and take note of where your eyes are immediately drawn. Or, walk slowly through the space (or ask a friend to help) seeing where your eyes (and your mind) linger.

Objections are those correctable physical characteristics of your home that give a buyer a reason to mark your home off their list, or to move it down a notch in their preferences. Perhaps it is that the vinyl siding needs to be power washed, or that three bi-fold closet doors need to be adjusted, or that there is poor lighting in the kitchen, or that the deck needs staining. There are oftentimes small home maintenance items that should be attended to before putting your home on the market. There are two potential dangers of having these items unresolved --- first, a buyer might become too overwhelmed by the work that they need to do to the home once they move in, and second, a buyer might extrapolate from what they can see to imagine what they cannot. A classic example of this is the dirty furnace filter that makes a buyer assume that the HVAC system has never been serviced, is in a terrible state of disrepair, and will need to be replaced immediately.

As you're preparing your house to go on the market, I'm happy to provide you with another set of eyes and to give you some new perspectives on how to best prepare your home to be shown to buyers. When you're ready, just give me a call (540-578-0102) or send me an e-mail (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com). Also, don't fret about having your home in perfect "show condition" before you call me --- I'm happy to give you some guidance and feedback while you're still in the process of preparing your home to go on the market.

Many sellers list their homes in the Spring or Summer, which is often ideal for the timing of their move, and aligns well with when most buyers are in the market.

However -- some houses are very difficult to be seen (and photographed) in the Spring and Summer because of large trees in the front yard.

So -- if you're thinking of selling this Spring or Summer, and you have trees (especially large house-obscuring trees) we should discuss taking some exterior photos SOON rather than waiting until later when we can't see your house at all.

Certainly, the grass isn't as green as it could be right now, and the flowers aren't blooming -- but it could be nice to see your house in the main view of your future real estate listing -- rather than just a tree.

Wood is just one component of a new home -- but it is a rather central component, and increases in the price of lumber can and will eventually impact the prices of new homes in our local market.

Just how much have lumber prices increased? Try more than 50% over the past 14 months! The chart above shows the increases over the past year from below $350 (per 1000 board feet) a year ago to over $500 today.

Why have lumber prices been increasing?

Wildfires in Canada in July 2017 started to restrict the supply of lumber.

A trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada further restricted supply.

A shortage of railcars and trucks had made it more expensive to transport lumber.

As the price of a home increases, so does a buyer's desire for that home to be a wonderful fit for their needs and wants, both now and in the future.

And it makes sense --

1. If you're buying an expensive (fill in your own definition here) home then you are likely to be planning to stay for a while, and thus the home should work quite well for you.

2. If you're buying an expensive home, it is a major investment (or more major than if it was a less expensive home) and thus you want to make sure the home is exactly what you want.

3. If you're buying an expensive-ish home you could probably also consider building a home -- which would give you exactly what you want in a house -- so the resale home you are considering better come darn close to that ideal.

Anyhow -- this is just what I consider to be a reality of buyers considering the purchase of higher end homes. Some of the resulting implications are....

1. Buyers of expensive homes often spend more time in the home search process -- waiting for "the right" home to come along.

2. Sellers of expensive homes should expect to hear "it just wasn't a good fit" quite a bit when asking what buyers thought after viewing the house.

3. Buyers of expensive homes are typically willing to be very patient in waiting for the ideal fit, as it is a big investment.

4. Sellers of expensive homes sometimes have to sell for less than they feel their home is or should be worth -- if there aren't any buyers (over a prolonged time period) for whom the house is an ideal fit.

Oh, and one last note, this correlation between price and pickiness does not necessarily extend in both directions. Buyers of lower priced homes are not universally non-picky or hasty to buy or overly willing to compromise.

This is a bit of a different look for our local housing market. Ignoring last year, there have always been between 500 and 900 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County when entering into March -- the very early edge of the Spring real estate market.

Last year -- that number felt low -- only 402 homes on the market in early March.

This year -- low doesn't even describe it -- there are only 279 homes on the market right now.

There is bound to be a surge of buyers hoping to contract on homes this March, April, May and June. What will they find as they enter into our local housing market? Very few houses for sale. And lots of competition from other buyers!!!

In addition to watching how the median sales price changes over time, it can be quite insightful to see how the median price per square foot of sold homes changes over time. The graph above tracks the median price per square foot of single family homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past 15 years.

Price per square foot increased 59% between 2002 and 2006 during the housing boom, but then fell 22% between 2006 and 2011 as the market cooled back off. Since that time, however, we have seen a slow and steady increase in this metric -- from $101/SF in 2011 to $118/SF last year -- which marks a 17% increase over the past six years.

I do not expect that we will see any drastic increases in this metric in the next few years, though an increasing number of buyers (more demand) and significantly fewer sellers (less supply) does make you wonder if we will start to see more rapid increases in sales prices, and thus in price per square foot.

ALSO OF NOTE -- this metric is most helpful in understanding value trends over time -- not in calculating the value of one particular property. This median price per square foot is the mid point of many very different homes -- new homes, old homes, homes with garages, homes without garages, homes with basements, homes without basements, homes with acreage, homes on small lots, etc. A median price per square foot can be more helpful in understanding the potential value (or value range) of a single property if we pull that median value based on a smaller data set of more properties more similar to the single property.

Have you heard that homes are selling rather quickly? Especially in the City of Harrisonburg? During the first two months of 2017, homes went under contract in around (median of) 67 days. In the first two months of 2018 -- it is only taking (a median of) 20 days!?!

So -- if you are a buyer, entering into the fray of trying to buy a home in a fast moving, low inventory, housing market -- you must know your rights....

If you schedule a showing before a house is under contract, the seller will be certain to let you see the house before responding to or accepting another offer.

If you tell the seller you are thinking about making an offer, they will give you at least 24 hours to make a decision about making an offer before they decide to move forward with another offer they have received.

If you make an offer, and there are multiple offers, the seller will give all buyers the chance to amend their offer (based on the fact that they are competing with other buyers) before the seller makes a decision about which offer to pursue.

If you are the first buyer to make an offer in a multiple offer scenario, the seller is likely to try to work out contract terms with you before moving on to other buyers who have made an offer.

If your offer has the highest price, the seller is certain to respond to your offer.

If your offer is not accepted, the seller will provide a thorough explanation of why it was not accepted.

WAIT -- HOLD ON -- don't print this and hang it on the refrigerator yet -- absolutely NONE Of the above are true, even though many buyers think that they are or wish that they were.

Revised for accuracy, you can hang these on the refrigerator....

A seller might accept another offer, or counter to another offer, even if you have a showing scheduled in the next day or two.

A seller might accept another offer or counter to another offer, even if you told them you would likely be making an offer in the near future.

A seller might ask all buyers (in a multiple offer scenario) for their highest and best offer, but they might just reply to the most favorable offer without giving all buyers a chance to revise their offer.

Being the first offer of many can, sometimes, be helpful -- but usually it is the offer terms that will dictate which offer receives a response from the seller.

Being the highest offer in no way guarantees that the seller will respond to your offer.

If your offer is not accepted, don't expect an explanation from the seller as to why it was not accepted.

Indeed -- these are at least moderately crazy times for buyers trying to secure a home to purchase, especially in the City of Harrisonburg. Prepare yourself by....

Already having a loan pre-approval letter in hand.

Knowing the market so that you can quickly make a decision about whether to make an offer, and at what price.

Go see houses QUICKLY when they come on the market.

Let me know if you want to chat about your plans for buying a home this Spring.

This will be an open-house style public hearing where citizens are invited to learn about, ask questions, and provide feedback on plans to realign the northbound off-ramp to intersect Port Republic Road directly across from the Forest Hill Road intersection. In the case of inclement weather, the public hearing will be rescheduled for March 8, 2018 at the same time and place.

I believe the "should I" ought to guide the "will I" with these sorts of questions. If doing X, Y or Z is likely to result in buyers knowing about the home and purchasing it, then yes, I ought to do that.

The research above (conducted annually by the National Association of Realtors) shows that half of buyers found out about the home they bought online. Another third of buyers found out about the home they bought from their Realtor.

OK -- now, let's take a look a few of the main indicators for our local housing market....

As shown above....

Home sales slowed slightly in January 2018 to 61 home sales -- down 11.59% as compared to January 2017.

The annual pace of sales has dropped 4.79% over the past year -- from 1,315 sales to 1,252 sales.

Prices continue to trend upward -- having risen 4.11% over the past year, from $192,000 to $199,882.

Homes are selling much more quickly -- with median days on market having dropped 32.65% from 49 days to 33 days!

As shown above, January 2018 home sales were right in the middle of the pack as contextualized by the previous three years. And in some ways, we should expect to see around 70 home sales next month -- however....

Contract activity in January 2018 was much stronger than could have been expected. Buyers (and sellers) signed 85 contracts in January -- as compared to only 67 last January. Thus, it is reasonable expect we'll probably see somewhat of a bump in home sales in February.

But what are these buyers buying, you might ask? A great question -- as there are 24% fewer homes on the market now as compared to a year ago. As such, there is tough competition among buyers in many price ranges. It is not unusual to see multiple offers on properties under $200K.

And perhaps that is why so many homes are selling so quickly. Almost half of the homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 30 days of coming on the market!

Anyone who lives, works, or attends school in the City of Harrisonburg or Rockingham County are asked to sign up for the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Emergency Alert. The emergency alert will notify you in the event of an emergency or life-threatening weather event.

This method of outreach is an additional resource for community members to be notified in the event of an emergency situation in this area.

Registration is free and simple and when entering your information, be sure to list a city or county address to ensure you receive the local alerts. To receive these emergency-related messages the fastest, register your cell phone (not landline) and select to receive your alerts by text.

This system was upgraded in October 2017, so everyone will need to sign up, regardless if you registered for the previous system.

Many of my savvy investor clients wait for these winter months to acquire additional rental properties. Their reasons are pretty logical....

In the Spring/Summer/Fall they have to compete with more owner occupant purchasers.

In the Winter, many sellers are less hopeful about the likelihood of finding a buyer, and often are more flexible on price.

Of note -- this advice is most applicable to townhouse properties that might be purchased by investors or owner occupants. This does not necessarily apply to multi-family properties or student housing properties.

As you can see above, Rockingham County is in Zone 1 -- which means we are in an area that is likely to have high radon levels.

What is radon, and what does it mean for you? Read on, from the EPA....

Radon is a radioactive gas that comes from the natural breakdown of uranium in soil, rock and water and gets into the air you breathe. Radon typically moves up through the ground to the air above and into your home through cracks and other holes in the foundation. Radon can also enter your home through well water. Your home can trap radon inside.

Any home can have a radon problem. This means new and old homes, well-sealed and drafty homes, and homes with or without basements. In fact, you and your family are most likely to get your greatest radiation exposure at home. That is where you spend most of your time.

Nearly 1 out of every 15 homes in the United States is estimated to have an elevated radon level (4 pCi/L or more).