Archives for April 2010

Kentucky Derby Picks 2010

The 136th Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday afternoon at the hallowed track of Churchill Downs, and horse racing betting fanatics certainly aren’t going to want to miss any of the action! As a first look at the race, here are our thoughts on some of the contenders and potential upstart long shots that have a chance at cashing winning tickets in the 136rd Run for the Roses.

(the number listed with each horse is the payout on a $100 wager if the horse wins the derby)

Lookin At Lucky +200 – Lookin at Lucky is most likely going to go off as the favorite to win the Derby on Saturday, and why not? He’s the only million dollar horse coming into the field now that Eskendereya has been scratched, and he was nearly undefeated as a two year old. This horse has been a favorite (and quite often at odds on) in every race that he has run since his maiden, and he’ll be popular amongst Kentucky Derby bettors. Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t won a Kentucky Derby since 1999, but he is still one of the best in the business and knows what it takes to win Triple Crown races.

Devil May Care +800 – If you’re hoping to find a filly along the lines of Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in this field, you won’t find one. However, Devil May Care is a sneaky entrant that could become the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby and the first since 1988 to pull off the feat. She is a total question mark who has a strong history against the girls, but no data whatsoever against the boys. She has a race that normally suits well at Churchill Downs, as she is going to come from slightly off the pace. Keep an eye on Devil May Care.

Dublin +1000 – Much like Lookin At Lucky, Dublin is used to going off as a favorite. He hasn’t competed against the same type of competition as the likely Derby choice, but he is arguably just as dangerous even though he has underachieved in his career. Dublin hasn’t won since the G1 Hopeful as a two year old. However, he continues to come in on the board in every race that he runs. At his most recent race, the G2 Arkansas Derby, he was edged out by Line of David, a colt that came out of nowhere to pull the huge upset.

MLB Betting: Best Over-Under Teams YTD

With a majority of the league having close to 20 games played on the year, we’re finally able to gauge what types of teams us MLB bettors are dealing with this baseball betting season. This is an extremely fun time for Total bettors that have been waiting to get as clear a picture as possible before firing at the books with total positions for the remainder of the season. Here’s a look at the best over and under bets throughout the first three weeks of the season.Over $$$-Makers:Los Angeles Dodgers (13-5) – It’s been a nightmarish start for the defending NL West champs as they enter Tuesday’s doubleheader with the Mets 8-10 overall and in last place. The main problem has by no means been because of the offense, as it ranks 3rd in the league in runs per game (5.72), 1st in batting average (.293), and 3rd in OPS (.815). What’s really hampered the Dodgers cause is the pitching staff that’s only gotten eight quality starts and has an ERA of 4.92 (#23). Great hitting and terrible pitching makes the dodgers almost an automatic over bet until further notice.Florida Marlins (13-7) – Once again the Marlins have shown that they can jolt the cover off the ball, and win more than they lose with some average overall pitching. Florida boasts a 5.05 RPG average (#8) and has hit at a .265 clip to date (#12). The pitching staff has a unit ERA of 4.30 (#17) and has gotten 11 quality starts (#8). The main problem for the fish has been its atrocious defense (#29 with 19 errors) and shoddy bullpen work that’s already blown four saves in 10 tries. The Marlins have paid out over bettors each of the L/5 baseball betting seasons; what makes 2010 any different?Arizona Diamondbacks (12-6) – Another club ripping the cover off the ball to start the year is the Diamondbacks. They rank in the top five in runs/game (5.42), batting average (.272), OPS (.811), and home runs (27). That said; save for Edwin Jackson, the rest of the starting staff owns ERA’s north of 4.40 and the bullpen’s been a sieve already 3-6 on the year with a 6.62 ERA and six blown saves in 11 tries. Look for the D’Backs to continue to look to out-slug its opponent until the pitching staff turns itself around.Under $$$-Makers:Cleveland Indians (4-13) – The Tribe doesn’t own an overpowering group of starting pitchers, and it simply can’t push runs past the plate. When you can’t do the basics in this league, you won’t succeed. It should come as no surprise that the Indians enter Tuesday night’s battle with the Halos three-games under .500 on the year. It’s offense ranks last in runs/game (3.26) and it ranks 29th in batting average (.223) and OPS (.646); it’s already been shut out four times. The lone saving grace has been the starting pitching staff’s ability to limit the damage (4.02 ERA) and the bullpens ability to limit the damage (3.86 ERA) in the later stages of the game. Until this club RPG average improves, continue betting under the ’total’.St. Louis Cardinals (6-13) – Manager Tony LaRussa can’t be too thrilled with his clubs start to the season, as he has to be wondering when the heck his offense is going to pick up the production. Though they rank 4th in going yard (25), the Redbirds have only averaged 4.32 RPG (#21) and carry a .249 team batting average (#18). They’ve scored four runs or less in seven of their L/10 overall. However, the pitching staff has been the key for under bettors as it ranks 2nd in ERA (2.74), 2nd in WHIP (1.17), and 1st in quality starts with 16. Once the offense comes around, look for the Cardinals to play to quite a few overs as the pitching staff simply can’t throw this well for the entirety of the season.Houston Astros (5-11) – The Astros got off to a dreadful start to their 2010 MLB betting campaign dropping each of their first eight games; the under went 5-2-1 ATS during that stretch after they tallied a total of 14 runs. Since then though, Houston is red hot having won eight of its L/10 ball games; but the under still went 6-3-1 ATS. That’s simply because the ‘Stros can’t hit their way out of a paper bag (#28 with 3.33 RPG) and the pitching staff has upped its collective game (#14 with a 3.94 ERA). Houston was a major under team a year ago (69-85), and it looks like nothing’s changed thus far.

Baseball Betting Tips: American League Teams Providing Cash To Bettors

The 2010 baseball betting season is just three weeks into the action, and it’s been tough to reel in the green during that stretch with just seven AL teams posting positive returns. Here’s a look at the best bets the American League has had to offer through games played through Sunday the 25th.1. Tampa Bay Rays (14-5, +$872) – The Rays unfortunately failed to follow up the franchise’s first ever World Series appearance with a return trip to the playoffs a year ago. With such little room for error playing in a division with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, the Rays have taken no mercy upon any of their opponents to start the year. Because of it, manager Joe Maddon’s kids boast the league’s best overall record through the first three weeks of the season. When you rank in the top six in both hitting and pitching, you’re certainly doing something right. Tampa Bay owns the top ranked offensive attack in the league heading into Monday night’s action plating 5.95 RPG. The Rays are far from a station-to-station ball club evidenced by the fact that it’s stolen 21 overall bases (#2). Backing the offense up is a pitching staff that currently ranks 6th with a 3.21 ERA. The starting staff has already churned out 12 quality starts with all five in the rotation securing at least one victory. They’ve got six home games scheduled this week against the Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals.

2. Minnesota Twins (13-6, +$579) – At this point of the 2009 MLB betting season, the Twins stood 9-9 and had dropped four of their seven games on the road. That’s been far from the case to kick off this season as the Twins sit atop the AL Central three-games ahead of the Detroit Tigers; they carry a 7-3 road record with them to Detroit and Cleveland this week. The Twinkies are one of baseball’s most balanced teams with an offense that plates 5.32 RPG (#7) and a pitching staff that owns a 3.59 ERA (#9). Joe Mauer already leads the AL in batting average at .382, and Francisco Liriano owns the 8th best individual ERA in the league (1.29). Manager Ron Gardenhire has seen his defense commit just two errors on the year (#1); you’re gonna win a heck of a lot more games in this league if you don’t hurt yourself in the field. If the offense and starting units weren’t enough to make you think this teams for real, maybe the fact that the bullpen comes in ranked 2nd overall with a 2.37 unit ERA will. Closer Jon Rauch has filled in admirably for the injured Joe Nathan by coming through in all but one of his seven save opportunities.

3. New York Yankees (12-6, +$428) – Since being dogged in all three of its games at Fenway to start the season, the defending champs have been favored in each of their L/15 games. A tip of the cap must go out to skipper Joe Girardi for managing his club to a +$$$ return through their first 18 games of the season. The offense has averaged 5.33 RPG (#6) but carries just a .265 batting average (#11). Their ability to hit the long ball (22) has definitely aided in their solid run production. Derek Jeter and company have been excellent in the field committing just six errors (#2), and veteran LHP Andy Pettitte leads the team in ERA (1.29), wins (3), and WHIP (1.07). The bullpen has been middle of the road so far going 2-2 overall with a 4.04 ERA with teams batting .242 against it. Closer Mariano Rivera has sealed the deal in all six of his save opportunities. NY closes out its nine-game road trip in Baltimore before returning home to square off against the Chicago White Sox this week.

4. Oakland Athletics (12-8, +$372) – The A’s only managed 74+ wins in each of the L/3 seasons, but Billy Beane’s “Moneyball Tactics” seem to be paying off to start the 2010 baseball betting season. Oakland is an incredibly young team that looks poised to win for many years to come provided this club sticks together. Manager Bob Geren has seen his pitching staff excel in the early stages of the season. It’s been all about the quality start for this group as it’s already churned out 14 through 20-games played. The units 2.93 ERA ranks 3rd overall while its 1.24 WHIP is good for 6th. Every member of the starting rotation has notched at least one victory with RHP Justin Duchscherer’s 1.82 ERA being the best mark on the starting staff. Opponents are batting just .219 against the A’s bullpen who is yet to blow a save this season (3-0). Offensively, the green and gold leaves a bit to be desired as the team has hit just 12 HR’s (#25) and has an OPS of .692. Still, when you’re getting pitching like the A’s have to date, you’re going to win a whole lot more than you lose. This is another feisty club that’s certainly in play-on mode to start the year!

MLB Betting: N.L. Teams making money for baseball bettors

The boys of summer have been going at it for three weeks. Both the Phillies and Cardinals sit atop their respective divisions, but there’s a surprising leader out west. Here’s a look at some of the best MLB Betting $$$-Makers the National League has to offer heading into this week’s action.1. Washington Nationals (10-9, +$559) – After winning just 59 games a year ago and finding themselves the worst overall NL bet in baseball (-$2570), the Nationals currently sit tied with the New York Mets and Florida Marlins for 2nd place in the NL East. Manager Jim Riggleman has been quick to utilize his speed as the Nats rank 5th in the league with 20 stolen bases, and though the offense has only averaged scoring 4.42 RPG (#16), it ranks 13th in team batting average (.261) and 13th in OPS (.762). These stats have been amassed with 3B Ryan Zimmerman already missing six-games. The pitching staff ranks in the bottom third of the standings for ERA, WHIP, and K’s, and it has only churned out eight quality starts (#25). However, the bullpen has been decent going 4-3 with a 4.09 ERA, and closer Matt Capps has closed the door in eight of his nine opportunities. It remains to be seen if the Nats can keep their solid play going, but they’re off to a solid start.

2. San Diego Padres (11-7, +$530) – After dropping six of their first nine games of the MLB betting season, manager Bud Black’s Padres have hit the ground running. They most recently saw their eight-game winning streak snapped, but during that stretch, they swept the division rival Diamondbacks and Giants before taking two of three from the Reds to put $733 of betting profit in their backer’s pockets. Because of this hot run, the Padres shockingly sit atop the NL West standings. The offense ranks 13th scoring an average of 4.61 RPG. Though it doesn’t hit well in terms of batting average (.246), when San Diego gets on base, it runs evidenced by its 20 stolen bases (#3). Another reason for the teams early success has been the performance of the team’s pitching staff. SD’s 2.98 unit ERA and 1.20 WHIP are good for the league’s 4th best marks. Though it’s only gotten six overall quality starts, the Padres bullpen has been rock solid in protecting leads as opponents are batting just .194 against it. This is a gritty club that never quits and always takes advantage of its opponent’s miscues.3. St. Louis Cardinals (11-7, +$223) – Surprisingly, it’s been all about the Redbirds pitching staff to kick off the 2010 baseball betting season, as the offense is yet to catch fire. Manager Tony LaRussa’s starting rotation has simply been phenomenal! It ranks 1st in ERA (2.72), 1st in WHIP (1.16), and 1st in Quality starts (15). Yeah, but how’s the bullpen you ask? Let’s just say it’s held up its end of the bargain with a 3.00 ERA with Ryan Franklin locking down six of his seven save opportunities. Though Albert Pujols and company rank 5th in the league with 24 HR’s, the offense is scoring just 4.33 RPG (#19) and has a team batting average of .246 (#18). Still, this club already holds a 2.5-game lead on the Chicago Cubs for the top spot in the NL Central, and it’s yet to fire on all cylinders!4. San Francisco Giants (10-8, +$151) – Another team grossly struggling to plate runs but dominates its opposition with stellar pitching is San Francisco. The Giants just missed out on qualifying for the post-season a year ago due to its weak offense. In the early goings of the 2010 MLB betting season, that problem has yet to been rectified. The Giants are scoring an average of just 4.39 RPG even though it ranks 8th in team batting average (.270). Once manager Bruce Bochy’s club figures out how to actually knock those base runners in, the Giants could cruise to the NL West title. That’s because Tim Lincecum and company rank 2nd in ERA & WHIP (2.78/1.16), 7th in strikeouts (139), and 4th in quality starts (13). Backing this stellar starting staff up is the league’s 5th ranked bullpen that owns a 2.86 ERAwith opponents batting .250 against it; closer Brian Wilson has converted all four of his save opportunities. The staff will get tested mightily by the excelled offenses of both the Phillies and Rockies this week.

The Eagles were listed at +1200 to win the 2011 Super Bowl before the McNabb trade. They moved to +1500 after the trade and are now listed at +1800. So one month ago a $100 bet on the Eagles to win Super Bowl 45 paid out $1200. Now it pays out $1800. That is not a good sign for Eagles fans.

Two other 2011 Super Bowl odds movers after the 2010 draft were the Houston Texans who moved from +2500 to +3000 and the NY Giants who moved from +1500 to +2000.

Betting Odds to win Super Bowl 45 – (2/6/11)

(How to read these Super Bowl odds: $100 bet on New Orleans (+900) will win $900)

Odds to win Kentucky Derby 2010

Horse racing’s biggest event is just two weeks away. The first leg of the Triple Crown will be held on Saturday, May 1st at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The one and a quarter mile race has been labeled as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” for a history of dramatic and sometimes, unpredictable outcomes. With over 150,000 fans on hand, the crowd is also a big part of the festivities at Churchill Downs.

While this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will need just two more victories to capture the Triple Crown, the last 21 horses to win the Derby have been unable to finish off the trifecta. While an early favorite has emerged for the event, history has shown that any horse that is able to qualify for the race can’t be entirely dismissed when handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

In two of the last five Kentucky Derby events, horses at odds of greater than 50/1 have won the race. In 2009, Mine That Bird won by nearly seven lengths at odds of 50.60. Five years ago, Giacomo pulled out a narrow victory at odds of 50.30. While these two races indicate that long shots can certainly emerge, the proven horses do step up to win the Kentucky Derby more often than not. Since 1996, the majority of Kentucky Derby races have been won by horses at odds of lower than 9/1.

Top Three Favorites:

With a couple of dominant performances this year, Eskendereya has emerged as a +250 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. In February, Eskendereya used a late charge to win by more than eight lengths at the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida. Earlier this month, Eskendereya produced another strong effort to capture the Wood Memorial Stakes by almost ten lengths. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.

The next choice is Lookin at Lucky at +400. Lookin at Lucky gained some notice in 2009 with four significant wins. This year, the horse gained a victory in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. With one of the most noted trainers in horse racing guiding Lookin at Lucky, the horse won’t be overlooked. Bob Baffert has trained three previous Kentucky Derby winners in his career.

Sidney’s Candy (+750)is also considered a major threat to capture the first leg of the Triple Crown. The horse gained some notice last year by setting a track record at Del Mar for five and one half furlongs. This year, Sidney’s Candy captured the Santa Anita Derby. The horse is trained by John W. Sandler.

A couple of live long shots:

Ice Box (20/1) has entered the Kentucky Derby conversation after winning this year’s Florida Derby. Like Lookin at Lucky, the horse is guided by a noted trainer. Nick Zito won a pair of Kentucky Derby races in the nineties. Pounced (35/1) is also a horse that could make some noise in the Kentucky Derby. The horse emerged last year to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf race. Pounced is trained by John Gosden.

2010 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds:

(number listed with horse is the payout on a $100 wager at Sportsbook.com)

(odds updated after Eskendereya, Edorsement scratches)

A Little Warm
+5000

Aikenite
+3500

American Lion
+1200

Awesome Act
+1000

Backtalk
+2000

Caracortado
+1500

Connemara
+2500

Conveyance
+1800

Deans Kitten
+2000

Devil May Care
+600

Discreetly Mine
+2500

Drosselmeyer
+3000

Dublin
+1200

Endorsement+800

Homeboykris
+2500

Ice Box
+1000

Interactif
+2000

Jackson Bend
+1500

Line of David
+1800

Lookin at Lucky
+200

Make Music for Me
+3000

Mission Impazible
+1200

Nobles Promise
+1200

Paddy OPrado
+2500

Rule
+2000

Sidneys Candy
+300

Stately Victor
+1800

Super Saver
+1200

Let us know who you think will win the 2010 Kentucky Derby by submitting your comments below.

NFL Draft Betting: Bet on number of QB’s, RB’s, WR’s drafted in first round

Sportsbook.com is your one stop shop for the all of the NFL Draft props that your heart desires! Today, we’re taking a glance at the position player props available for NFL betting fanatics to sink their teeth into prior to next week’s draft!

Number of Quarterbacks Drafted in Round 1: Over/Under 2

Considering the fact that Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford will almost certainly be a top pick and Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen has a ton of suitors, there really is no conceivable way there will be less than two quarterbacks chosen. Truth be told, this is probably the number that will be picked. There’s an outside chance that QB Colt McCoy could slip into the back of Round 1 for a team like Indianapolis that is going to need to groom a quarterback over these next few years, but the wild card out there is always Florida’s Tim Tebow. It seems like teams are starting to jump at the prospect of having one of the greatest collegiate players of all-time on their team even though no one is totally sure about where he fits onto an NFL roster. Someone may grab him in the first 32 picks. Even if it doesn’t happen though, you’ll get your money back at worst once Clausen’s name comes off the board.

Number of Running Backs Drafted in Round 1: Over/Under 1.5

Save for Clemson’s CJ Spiller, who could be a Top-10 pick, there really isn’t a slam dunk for another running back to be chosen in Round 1. However, there is plenty of talent at that position in this draft in the middle rounds, and if the past has taught us nothing else, it’s that teams in the 20s and early 30s tend to reach to get the guy they want even if it’s a certified reach to take him at their draft slot. Names like Fresno State’s Ryan Mathews, Cal’s Jahvid Best, and Stanford’s Toby Gerhart are all legitimate options for the Houston Texans, who badly need a running back in this year’s draft at some point. The Jets and Chargers could reasonably also select a running back. Houston, the most likely team to take a running back, could also deal up to take Spiller, which may signal the end of Round 1 backs. We’ll take our chances that either the Texans do just that or go with a defensive back to cash this prop at long odds.

The run on wide receivers may not begin until late in the first round, but eventually, there are going to be some receivers taken. Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant is the most likely option to go in the top half of the first round, while Oklahoma TE Jermaine Grisham also appears to be a slam dunk to be a Top 32 selection. We also expect to see Georgia Tech’s DeMaryius Thomas and/or Notre Dame’s Golden Tate and/or Illinois Arrelious Benn see their name come off the board in the first round as well.