In his first mock draft of 2014, released Wednesday, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.'s initial prediction has one of the most highly-touted passers falling into general manager Rick Spielman's lap: Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater.

In the mock (behind Insider paywall), Kiper has the Houston Texans with the first-overall pick selecting Texas A&M phenom quarterback Johnny Manziel. Kiper likes a pair of Aggies to go in the first couple of selections.

The offseason has officially began for 28 NFL teams, but remember it's early.

Kiper's list is written in sand and should only further the conversation as his first mock draft was posted 10 days before the Senior Bowl, 34 days before the NFL Combine, two months before free agency and nearly four months before the draft. One team that hypothetically selects a quarterback before the Vikings, the Cleveland Browns, doesn't even have a coach yet.

The Vikings committed last offseasaon to bolstering their receiving corps, which included trading away their top receiving threat in Percy Harvin in return for a Seahawks' first and seventh-round picks last season (CB Xavier Rhodes, G Travis Bond), and a third-round pick in May. By signing Greg Jennings and drafting a gem in rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, the Vikings haven't missed Harvin and will set their sights on settling the quarterback position this offseason. Free agency opens March 11, but a loaded draft class and somewhat prime real estate in the draft order could set up the fourth first-round quarterback selection in franchise history following Tommy Kramer, Daunte Culpepper and Christian Ponder.

However, there are plenty of successful quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round. Would the Vikings be better suited at trading their No. 8 pick or using it to fill a hole in the defense?

A quick look illustrates that, across the last five years, first-round quarterbacks have more success than not of reaching either AFC or NFC Championship game.

Out of 10 games, first-round quarterbacks have represented their teams as 12 of the 20 starters in the past five years, including four appearances by a second-round quarterback and one by a third-round passer (Russell Wilson on Jan. 18). Tom Brady (6th round, 2000) is the only quarterback drafted after the third round to come within one game of a Super Bowl appearance in the last five years.

However, 2014 is the first year in that short span that features just one first-round quarterback and that's 37-year-old Peyton Manning.

Could Teddy Bridgewater fall to the Vikings at No. 8? If so, should the Vikings pick him? Or should they even look to take a first-round quarterback?