Here we go again. Global warming causes cold European winters! So no matter what happens – it proves man-made global warming is for real.

Just a few years ago, these off-the-wall scientists claimed that global warming would lead to warm, snowless winters, with palm trees eventually reaching Scandinavia.

But now that cold winters have caught the hapless scientists with their pants down and signs pointing to even colder winters ahead are piling up, scientists have now concocted a model that they say shows that warming lack of summertime Arctic sea ice cover leads to cold winters. At least that’s what some adventurous scientists are saying at Germany’s state-funded Alfred Wegener Institute in a new paper.

The Alfred Wegener Institute press release here claims that because of the near surface warming, the air goes into upward motion and the atmosphere becomes unstable. According to the paper’s lead author Ralf Jaiser:

We have analysed the complex non-linear proceses that are behnind this destabilization, and have shown how the changed conditions in the Arctic have an impact on the typical circulation and air pressure patterns.”

The AWI tells us about the air pressure difference between the Arctic and the middle latitudes the so-called Arctic Oscillation, with the Azores high and the Iceland lows that we know from weather reports. If the index is high, then westerly winds prevail and transport warm, moist oceanic air deep into Europe. But if these westerly winds cease, then Arctic air penetrates into Europe, like the last 2 winters. The models calculation now show that in times of low Arctic ice cover, this air pressure index is weakened during the subsequent winter and thus allows Arctic air to penetrate down to the middle latitudes. It’s that simple – period. So let’s all just keep moving on.

So their knowledge of nature is complete now, and their models are tuned like no others and can recreate all the mysteries of nature. This may sound hard to believe, but it’ll do for the hordes of stupid gullible journalists out there. Overall the AWI press release takes on a sort of silly paternal attitude and treats the reader like a parent treats a 4-year old when explaining how Santa Claus brings presents at Christmas. Of course, when the child reaches the age of 8, he or she realises that he/she had been duped the whole time. Right now the media is at about age two and half, and stuck there.

They must all have frantically tried to tune their models so that they could explain the last few snowy winters. A funny (but pointless) question would be: Is their explanation consistent with the one from the PIK from a few months ago.

“Despite the small extent of sea ice in summer 2011 , in Germany failed a cold, snowy winter so far. Jaiser explains it this way: “Of course, playing in the complex climate system of our earth many other factors involved, which partially overlap each other. Our conceptual model explains the mechanisms of how regional changes in the global impact of the Arctic sea ice cover and over a period of late summer to winter. Other mechanisms depend, for example, along with the snow cover in Siberia and tropical influences. The interactions between these factors are addressed in future research to date, forming an uncertainty of predictions. ”

So the first field test of their theory has failed the first winter even though we had low ice extent but no negative AO nor any cold winter in western Europe . Of course their theory could be all wrong and other factors really cause the negative AO and cold winters in Europe[ like a warmer Stratosphere which causes a colder troposphere] ]

Good observation. It failed the first test! Makes you wonder how the silly paper got published in the first place. Let’s recall that 40 years ago the Arctic had a lot of ice, but still had some bitter cold winters too. The whole paper is nothing but a shot in the dark farce.

“The lack of warming for more than a decade—indeed, the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections—suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause. Faced with this embarrassment, those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes, to enable anything unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2.”

O/T Eurocrisis:
Be worried. Be VERY worried.http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere?theme.id=1
(Don’t laugh. Infographic by the Eurocrats themselves depicting how they gonna tackle the Eurocrisis. Looks like they’re fans of XKCD.)

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