Asking Price Drops For Oswalt, Kuroda, Jackson

The asking prices for top free agent starters have dropped significantly, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Roy Oswalt is said to be asking for $8MM, Hiroki Kuroda’s asking for $10-11MM and Edwin Jackson’s asking price has also dropped.

Oswalt and Kuroda seek one-year deals, while Jackson’s agent, Scott Boras, seeks a five-year deal. Each of the three starters is one of the top five players remaining on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents. Last week MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained which teams could be looking for starting pitching.

An $8MM investment Oswalt seems more than reasonable for a team in need of pitching help. Though the 34-year-old struggled with back issues in 2011, he finished the season with six strong September starts and a season ERA of 3.69 with 6.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Similarly, a one-year deal in the $10-11MM range for Kuroda seems team-friendly. The right-hander posted a 3.07 ERA in 202 innings with 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Kuroda's less than a month away from his 37th birthday, but a one-year deal would protect teams' long-term interests.

The disparity in value between young arb-eligible pitchers and older veterans is crazy.

Teams are willing to give up numerous very highly regarded prospects for pitchers like Latos and Gonzalez, but aren’t willing to sign equally talented pitchers like Oswalt, Kuroda and Jackson. It’s a bit odd.

I think the new market imbalance might be the overvaluation of youth pitchers at the expense of veterans. Hopefully some astute GM comes along and recognizes it. A rotation of Oswalt, Kuroda and Jackson would be pretty great, and cost less than $30mil annually.

Will, I think that one of the issues for certain teams (i.e. Red Sox and Yanks) probably is that if they’re over the luxury tax cap, they may have to pay something like 30, 40, or even 50% more than what they pay the player as a penalty. Now, that may not be all that much of an issue for the Yanks, but it does seem to be for the Sox, because the last few years they’ve tried to stay below the lux tax cap on opening day. So I don’t see them wanting to spend (for example) $10M on Kuroda and another $3-5M in lux tax penalty.

The luxury tax limit was $178mil in 2011, and it will stay the same in 2012. The Red Sox 2011 payroll was $163mil, putting them $15mil under. They haven’t added any high cost players this offseason, and have shed some larger contracts (about $33mil between Drew, Papelbon and Cameron). They’re set to be well below the luxury tax limit this year.

Which is true, but Agons monster contract was not counted towards the 2011 but will be this season, thus eating a huge chunk of that disparity already. Plus you re-sign David Ortiz at whatever he will be commanding and they are already back where they were last year but with a few more holes in the rotation.

Will, I’m not so sure. The Sox have to absorb a number of built in raises in existing contracts, as well as whatever arbitration raises might occur with younger players. Also, since they agreed to arbitration with Ortiz, he’s quite likely to get around $14M for next year with will eat up a big chunk of the free space under the cap. All indications are that it may be very difficult for the Sox to add a player with a significant contract, if they intend to stay under the cap.

Oswalt, Kuroda, and Jackson aren’t as talented as Latos. Anyway, the reason young pitchers are valued more is mainly because they’re cheaper and have team controlled years left and/or a team-friendly contract.

Gio Gonzalez, for example, is slated to make $4.2mil in arbitration this year. That number will rise each of the following 3 seasons. In the end it will probably average annually to not much less than what Oswalt or Kuroda is asking for.

If a pitcher is good, they’re going to make a lot of money in arbitration (see Lincecum making around $20mil in arbitration).

As it stands, Oswalt, Kuroda and Jackson are good for 3+ WAR. That should be worth about $12-15mil on the market (1 WAR=$4-5mil), but there’s a clear undervaluation of them. It would make a lot of sense to sign these guys on the cheap.

Even so, Gio is still under team control. That’s worth a lot to a team. And while arbitration can get expensive, for at least the next two years, Gio most likely will be cheaper annually than those pitchers. Plus, he’s still in/entering his prime, while the others, except for Jackson, are at the back end on their careers. That’s worth a lot to a team.

That’s not to say that Oswalt, Kuroda, and Jackson aren’t worth what they’re asking or that they’re not good; they are. But there’s more appeal to young players under team control longer, and rightfully so. Gio and Latos are pieces that can help you contend now and in the future, while Oswalt and Kuroda are just pieces for now. I think it’s easy to see why teams desire young pitchers more than older ones, especially small/mid market teams. It just makes more sense.

That can’t be right. Oswalt is too good with too much upside (on a 1 year deal) to sign for that little. The only thing I can think of that would explain that price is if he is only wanting to play in 2-3 places.

Yes, but I’m sure you’ve been around this site long enough or even watched one episode of Baseball Tonight to realize that Onley’s reports are always far fetched and usually far from the truth. But thanks for reminding me I was on a baseball rumors site, I forgot for a second. Glad to have you around, you’re a real godsend.

Agreed. Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal in KC could be HUGE for that team. Veteran presence, good mentor for the younger arms like Duffy and Montgomery, quality starts with a good young offense behind him…he could seriously be the difference between another season of growing pains and finishing above .500.

Agree, though based on Moore’s other moves, if he brings in Oswalt then Duffy and Montgomery will be in AAA to start the season. The Chen deal in particular makes another rotation addition difficult. I still think they should do it.

I agree that another rotation addition makes it difficult to keep the current probable starting 5 – Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino, Duffy – at the MLB level, I don’t think it’s Duffy who should be removed. Hochevar has had years to live up to his potential, and all he’s proven is that he’s really good ONCE through an opponent’s lineup. It’s time for him to become the long man/spot starter…or to concentrate on throwing 1-2 pitches REALLY well (instead of 5 pitches only mediocrely) and become a devastating 1-inning reliever.

Agreed – bringing in Oswalt makes that rotation look much more imposing, especially when you consider the extra depth at SP you’ll have with Montgomery/Duffy at AAA. It also gives you a valuable trade chip if the Royals are out of it by mid-July.

The closer we get to spring training, the less likely it looks that the Wild Card will go through this year.

Most teams have basically finalized their big plans for the offseason, so I don’t see most teams agreeing to add in that extra spot when nobody will have time to plan for a better run when the field opens up like that.

I’d say if Fielder signs and we still haven’t heard one way or the other on the second WC, it’s pretty much a no go until 2013.

This. At that price, there is essentially no reason whatsoever to leave Oswalt out there. Worley/Blanton behind the big three is nothing compared to Oswalt/Worley with Blanton/Kendrick as the long guys. I hope Rube goes for it.

The Yanks should be all over Kuroda, one year commitment then they can jump back in the market next year when there’s more quality arms who will potentially be FA’s. He’d easily be their second best starter. It’s just a matter of whether he’s ready for the big stage in NY, he’s been nothing but consistent so far, hopefully he’ll realize how much he can help out a contender.

I don’t think any of the three (Kuroda, Oswalt, or Ejax) will come to Baltimore. Kuroda dosnt want to pitch in the east let alone for a bad team. Oswalt wants to pitch for a contender. And Ejax wants to much $$$ and I’m assuming a NTC which the O’s should not offer.

Now Codero on the other hand is very intriguing, could be a steel money wise, cant be any worse than Gregg and could be mid season trade chip.

The time has come for the big market teams like the Sox and Yanks to pick up their starter. It will be interesting to see which of these starters does better this year, Oswalt, Kuroda, Jackson, or Wilson. Also with the relievers, Bailey, Madson, Bell, or Papelbon. They could be key pieces to their teams winning a championship. Another intersting aside is whether these players take the money, or take the fit by location or the ability to win.

I’d call D’Backs a severe longshot. They play in a relative hitters’ park and if he’s going to play in a hitters’ park, he may as well go with Boston or New York as playing for one of the other severely diminishes the offensive blowback of playing in the AL East.
My money’s still heavily on Cardinals for Oswalt.

Fair points, but I’m pegging Arizona as the wildcard in the Oswalt sweepstakes.

And if someone does in fact offer Jackson a third year, I see no loss for the Yankees with this. However, if something like that does happen, like tomorrow, it could be a two horse race for Kuroda btw Boston and New York.

I’m not saying the Yankees would go to three or that they necessarily even should, I just think with ST so close and so many teams still desperately needing pitching, I think someone will blink and give him another year, at the least an easy vesting option.

Madson and Fielder didn’t find the deals they wanted because there was no market for them left late in the offseason where Boras usually does his work (This offseason moved remarkably fast). There’s still somewhat of a market for Jackson, Boras will just have to meet teams in the middle.

Yep. But Oswalt would look amazing in that rotation behind Cahill, Kennedy, and Hudson. You have a starting rotation with the avg age of like 23. Having an established guy like Oswalt there, in an environment that’s not all that foreign (SW states) would benefit the team greatly. We’ll see. I have no real reason to think this, just a gut feeling. Towers has made probably, in my opinion, some of the best moves of any GM this offseason and this would just be the icing on the cake for them. If they did sign Oswalt, I’d peg them as clear front runner in the NL West.

I’m taking Oswalt on a one year w/ a potential team option for ’13 (depending on the team and what young players are in the pipeline for next year). Kuroda was solid last year but getting older and at some point the wheels are going to fall off that train. Jackson is likable but the commitment is still too long when there is an Oswalt on the market for one year.

@ Obsessions – In general, I would agree. But looking at the potential free agent list for starting pitchers next year… I think he’s going to run into the same problem. There are some big names that might be available.

This virtually assures the Yankees of signing one of these guys. I would prefer Kuroda or Oswalt over Jackson, but for the right price Jackson would certainly fit in. We don’t need an ace, but we need somebody who’s going to be more of a sure thing than AJ and a 5th starter, and to a lesser extent Hughes. The top 2 is set with CC and Nova. We need to give Betances and Banuelos time to develop.

That’s definitely a possibility, I also wonder if the concerns about his injury are worse than we assume. If teams have a reason to believe that it will be an issue to begin the year, or has a high likelihood of returning at some point next year, then I could see them holding off on signing him.

Just for the simple reason that Jackson is younger and probably more durable, Kuroda is probably the best of the bunch, so that said, I think teams are ensuring that there is no chance either could be had for a simialr price as Oswalt before he’s signed. I think this is the best example of patience.

I don’t think Jackson figures into it all that much (at least as far as the Red Sox are concerned) because he wants a multi-year deal.

As far as Kuroda, maybe. I think as far as actual pitching talent is concerned Oswalt is a better pitcher, but with the injury concern I could see teams preferring Kuroda if the price was the same, or at least similar. If Kuroda is asking $11-12M and Oswalt is asking $8M I think teams might still prefer Oswalt, but if they have any indication that Kuroda’s asking price might fall to $8-9M I could maybe see them waiting.

That’s what I’m saying too, but if a team really is comfortable with their pitching depth and are looking at one of those guys as a bonus only if the price is right, then they wouldn’t be in a hurry to jump on them.

Not saying that that’s what I think they should be doing, or that I’m comfortable with Boston’s depth, but if they are then there’s no reason to jump yet.

Not so much tougher than you might think. If you compare offensive and pitching stats between the leagues you’ll find that the difference is in the low single digits, almost within the margin of error. A good pitcher is a good pitcher. He’s not going to suddenly “blow up” because he’s moved to the ALE.

I’m sorry flicka, I didn’t realize that facts were so upsetting. The post I responded to was a blanket insult to an entire league’s talent and I personally found it to be lacking insight and pointed out that it certainly isn’t supported by recent history.
Did I cherrypick those stats? I guess I’d have to say “Yes”; but then again, they are 100% accurate. Your statements are also correct – no argument there. I was trying to put things in a little more modern context than what happened two decades ago because I felt it was more relevant to the leagues as they stand today and certainly show that an NL pitcher has a chance against the AL’s best.
I gave the Yankees their due but I didn’t say the AL was inferior – I simply pointed out that recent trends in baseball might be enough to suggest that people rethink their opinion that the AL East teams are unbeatable behemoths that ruin players’ careers.
To say that most NL ptichers cannot survive in the AL East is a stretch. Would most pitchers’ (be they AL or NL) statistics go up if they had 15 to 20 starts/year in the hitters’ ballparks known as Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park? Of course they would; but I doubt most pitchers would throw their gloves in the trash and give up the game.
Like it or not, there seems to be a recent trend – supported by actual results – that a genuine team with complimentary pieces can to topple a collection of supposed ultra elite superstars.
My ideal World Series would be the Cardinals beating the Rays (who don’t have a payroll approaching $200 million) in 7 games! Long live the “AAA” teams!

I still can’t get over the fact that Matt Moore was an 8th round pick, he is the best addition of this year so to speak. Everyone missed the boat on this guy, even the Rays 7 times. The Rays got Price and Moore in the same draft.

The thing of it is none of know what the true asking price is for any of them until they actually sign!
Oswalt at least according to rumors has changed his demands from 3 years to one year and everything in between and this is without giving a dollar figure. Also, to the best of my knowledge the only team he has met officially with is the Royals.
Kuroda is an international man of mystery no one knows what he wants, but 10 million a year sounds reasonable to me especially when compared to Chris Carpenter
As for Jackson, his agent is just plain “Buck” Wild. There is no hope whatsoever of that whole scenario of being the least bit reasonable.
PS Bleed Orange the Orioles flipped George Sherrill for Josh Bell. To be honest George was one of the best closer the O’s had in a long time before he was traded. The trade however didn’t exactly pan out though for anyone! No to flipping, if the O’s sing any of them; we need to keep them for the duration. That’s really the crux of the Orioles problem have been “Zero” continuity

I would go for Oswalt, he is younger and over his career he has put up much better numbers. also it is a pride thing and I think not getting resigned with Philly really pissed him off. Expect him to put up monster numbers this season for whoever picks him up. For 8 million in MLB he is a steal. I would get an option year at similar numbers with incentives. No risk either way . You can always give him an extension if he works out. Your team will be in the drivers seat having offered him a chance at redemption. This is a winning deal. Better than anything the Soc have done to date.

Honestly, considering how all in they seem to be, they may make a good destination for him if not for the park factor. At this point, he’s gotten so inexpensive (Allegedly) that I’m convinced he’s being very, very picky in regards to where he plays.

It’s funny how Cashman and the Yankees are cautious about giving Oswalt a 1 year deal due to a recent injury, yet they had no problem with deciding to give AJ Burnett one of the largest contracts ever.

You’re talking about two completely different times, when team needs were very much different. Plus despite AJ’s pitching shortcomings, there was a market for him. Keep in mind, we just beat out Atlanta. Yes in hindsight, giving Burnett that many years, wasn’t a great idea, but again, the team had their money on the books lined up a little differently. Plus with the new CBA agreement, there are tax incentives that did not previously exist for keeping payroll down. Something that all big market teams will be sensitive too going forward.

I don’t see how this is related?? They have changed their approach, is there something wrong with that?. Also, Yanks needed more pitching at that time, than what they do now. I’ll take AJ over Lackey and Zitio and Santana just to mention a few

Beyond that, you’d also end up with a question mark at closer – Marshall has very little experience in the closer’s role, although, having watched him pitch for years, I do feel like he’d be at least somewhat successful

Correct, but they earlier had stated they were cautious about getting Oswalt specifically because of his injury, not because of the costs. Yes the Yankees needed more major changes going into 2009, but they still lack a very good #2 starter from making them an above average rotation.

I never said there was anything wrong with their approach. But Oswalt is low risk high reward. I already mentioned they needed more pitching at that time. I just find it interesting they are that cautious for a pitcher who only wants a 1 year deal.