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Liverpool unluckiest team in Premier League last season, according to ESPN Luck Index

Last Updated: 07/08/18 3:44pm

Liverpool lost out on 12 points according to the Luck Index

Liverpool were the unluckiest team in the Premier League last season while Manchester United were among the luckiest, new research has revealed.

According to the ESPN Luck Index, a research project designed and carried out by ESPN, Intel and experts at the University of Bath, Liverpool were denied 12 points in matches affected by wrongly disallowed goals or incorrect decisions on penalties and red cards.

Conversely, Manchester United gained six points from decisions that went in their favour.

The study revealed Jose Mourinho's Manchester United side gained six points

Using a predictive model which crunched hundreds of data points and working in collaboration with former Premier League referee Peter Walton, a research team analysed footage from every game of the season to see which major incidents should have been overturned.

Liverpool would have finished second (still 10 points adrift of Manchester City) according to the Luck Index and Manchester United would have finished fourth.

The study also revealed Huddersfield and not Stoke would have been relegated. Huddersfield would have remained on 37 points while Stoke lost out on four which would have seen them stay up.

Brighton would have won an additional £11.5m in prize money in their first season in the Premier League by finishing six places higher, while Leicester would have won £9.6m less.

'Luck Index' simulated table 2017-18

Team

Revised Points Total

Points Adjustment

Manchester City

97

-3

Liverpool

87

+12

Tottenham

77

0

Manchester United

75

-6

Arsenal

71

+8

Chelsea

70

0

Burnley

50

-4

Newcastle

48

+4

Brighton

46

+6

Everton

44

-5

Crystal Palace

42

-2

West Ham

41

-1

Watford

41

0

Leicester

40

-7

Southampton

40

+4

Bournemouth

38

-6

Stoke

37

+4

Huddersfield

37

0

Swansea

34

+1

West Brom

33

+2

"The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage," said University of Bath assistant professor Thomas Curran.

"Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out - it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted."

Former referee Walton added: "The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game.

"With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds."