Oscar predictions: AP film writers expect a 'Brokeback' night

David Germain and Christy Lemire, AP movie writers

Published
7:00 pm EST, Thursday, March 2, 2006

In a year of daring smaller films and performances, Associated Press film writers David Germain and Christy Lemire largely agree on who they think will triumph at Sundays Academy Awards. Here are their picks:

BEST PICTURE

GERMAIN: Im not part of the fan posse of "Brokeback Mountain." Its an admirable film, but my least favorite among the nominees. When she reviewed it, my colleague Christy Lemire nailed "Brokeback Mountain," finding it a sturdy but overrated drama that did not merit all the wild acclaim. That said, nothings going to stop those gay cowboys from lassoing the top Oscar. I dont buy into the "Crash" coming-round-the-mountain surge people are talking up. "Brokeback Mountain" has the air of sweeping romance and tragic melodrama that best pictures are made of, and itll make the academys straight majority feel more progressive anointing it. But Id rather they go progressive over the gay author, Truman Capote.

LEMIRE: Aww, thanks, Dave. Youre too kind. Im also going to go with "Brokeback," not because its the best picture of the year (it wasnt even on my top 10 list) but because as Dave noted, it will make academy voters feel as if they are making an important social statement. And, to be fair, it is a gorgeous film with solid performances throughout. It really is a strong field this year, though. "Crash" is so rich and so honest, it gives you a great deal to think and talk about afterward. "Capote" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" are steady, stirring and incredibly relevant today. And "Munich" … well, its been praised as Steven Spielbergs most important film since "Schindlers List." Truly, its more of a technically flawless yet standard action thriller.

BEST DIRECTOR

LEMIRE: "Brokeback Mountain" will win and Lee will win. He came close with "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," his dazzling martial-arts epic from 2000 which won the foreign-language Oscar but lost in the best-director and best-picture categories. Here, hell finally win the ultimate prize for his visually lush Western, but it almost feels like a cumulative award for a respected director with an esteemed and varied career. (Well ignore his anemic take on "The Hulk.") Taking home the Oscar also would make him the first Asian filmmaker to earn the directing award.

GERMAIN: Its in my nature to disagree, so it pains me to concur with Christy here. These all are exceptional directing jobs in their own ways, but Lee, a master of so many styles, has crafted an impeccable visual spectacle. If "Crouching Tiger" was Lees grand battle canvas, "Brokeback Mountain" is his great still-life, a film of hushed restraint in its performances and its rendering of the distant, immutable landscapes of the American West. As Christy notes, giving the first Oscar to an Asian director fits the politically correct theme of inclusion and diversity shaping up at the Oscars.

BEST ACTOR

GERMAIN: This is the first time Ive ever wished for a five-way tie. They all deserve Oscars. But Hoffman went one better on Jamie Foxx, who won the previous year as the lovable Ray Charles in "Ray." The difference: Truman Capote was by no means lovable, yet Hoffman so richly, humanly embodies the mans pretensions, deceptions, compulsions and demons that you cannot help but fall under his spell, pitying the author for his self-destructive path even as you abhor his actions in the name of art.

LEMIRE: I said it when I reviewed "Capote" back in September and Ill say it again now: They should just give Hoffman the Oscar and get it over with. In a strong year for male performances, Hoffman stands out. And after a career of playing daring, difficult supporting roles, the versatile character actor proves he can step into the spotlight and carry a whole film. He doesnt just look like Capote in his dark-rimmed glasses and dapper suits, and he doesnt just sound like him with his lilting, high-pitched voice. He manages to embody a famous figure fully without once devolving into caricature, something it could have been easy to do in portraying someone as well-known for his idiosyncrasies as his brilliance.

BEST ACTRESS

LEMIRE: The other categories are pretty easy to call this year, but this ones a toughie. Huffman completely transforms herself to play a pre-op transsexual  shes a woman playing a man who acts like a woman, no small feat  and does so with great subtlety, humor and heart. You totally forget youre watching one of the glamorous stars of "Desperate Housewives." But Witherspoon just shows up and steals "Walk the Line" right out from underneath Phoenix  again, no small feat in upstaging the great Johnny Cash  and shell also walk away with the Oscar. June Carter is the part she was born to play, allowing her to showcase the radiance, charm, intelligence and flawless comic timing shes exhibited throughout her career, but also her maturity.

GERMAIN: Now my disagreeable nature gets to assert itself. Yes, its a two-woman race between Witherspoon and Huffman, but Im picking the latter. I saw "Capote" and "Transamerica" around the same time last summer and decided it was all over for best actor and actress, that no one could beat Hoffman or Huffman. And Id already seen "Walk the Line," in which Witherspoon is superb, but to me, no match for the incredible transformation Huffman undergoes. This is the best gender-bending performance Ive ever seen, better than Hilary Swanks in "Boys Dont Cry." Huffmans husky voice, gawky stiffness and sad, shy mannerisms are a marvel, so perfect that you truly believe this woman is a man whose body and soul are on the cusp of, but not yet proficient at, the fine art of womanhood.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

GERMAIN: If "Good Night, and Good Luck" had just been a cool idea George Clooney was unable to find the bucks to film, he still would deserve this supporting-actor Oscar. Clooney truly effaced his rakish star persona and buried himself in the role of a dogged CIA operative waking up to the ugliness hes helped perpetrate in the name of oil. I know its supposed to be the performance alone that carries the vote, but Clooneys bound to score extra credit for making "Good Night." Hes probably right when he says he doesnt expect to win anything on that film, but it gives academy members another nudge to choose Clooney for a very worthy performance.

LEMIRE: Its so boring to agree, but I like Clooney here, too. Again, its not just the physical transformation he underwent to play the role (you forget that youre watching one of People magazines sexiest men alive), its how he changes from the inside out, how he carries himself. You absolutely feel like youre watching a man grappling with disillusionment after risking his life for his country for two decades, and its an arresting thing to see. (I also agree with Dave that an Oscar here is sort of a three-in-one for the whole night.) Dillon stands out in a strong ensemble cast, and Hurt is a hoot in just a few minutes of screen time, but its not enough.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

LEMIRE: OK, Im going to defy conventional wisdom here. Weisz has won pretty much every imaginable award up to this point, and shes the favorite here, too. But Williams is just devastating in "Brokeback Mountain." Shes so subtle and strong, capable of lovely, small moments and moving bursts of emotion. Its a real surprise from the actress who was best known until now for playing bad-girl Jen Lindley on the teen drama "Dawsons Creek," and it would be great to see her work acknowledged.

GERMAIN: As good as Weisz is, with her zesty humor and fearless spirit, Ive been in Williams camp all along. So Christy and I must boringly agree to not disagree again. As a woman in desperate denial over her husbands affair with another man, Williams dominates her scenes even alongside Heath Ledgers powerhouse performance. The disbelief that registers in her expressions and body language when she sees hubby and his boyfriend making out is gut-wrenching. This is the one acting category where Oscar voters are likely to follow the "Brokeback" trail, so the film has another key prize to go with best picture and director.

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