Sunday, December 14, 2014

So…anything much going on this week? The Indians
fired the first salvo during baseball’s Winter Meetings a few days ago,
consummating the much-rumored Brandon Moss for Joey Wendle swap on Monday. The
trade was the worst-kept secret in baseball, and occurred as part of a flurry
of moves from A’s GM Billy Bean that completely revamped his roster. Following
the Moss trade, the Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman put his stamp on the very expensive
and defensively inept roster he inherited, and now has a very expensive and
defensively proficient roster to take into the 2015 season. The White Sox got
in on the A’s fire sale, acquiring front of the rotation starting pitcher Jeff
Samardzija, and then shoring up their biggest weakness by signing closer David
Robertson to anchor what was a very shaky bullpen. Not to be outdone by the
Indians and White Sox, the Tigers sent pitcher Rick Porcello to the Red Sox in
return for power hitting Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The middle of the
Tigers order just got that much better, and Miggy, Victor and Cespedes are going
to wear out a lot of pitching staffs next season. Even the Twins got in on the
act, inking SP Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million contract. The AL Central
came to play this winter, and the only team that didn’t make a splash in San
Diego was the reigning AL Champion Royals.

Getting back to the Moss deal for a second; as much
as I like Joey Wendle as both a player and person, this trade looks like an
absolute steal for the Indians as long as Billy Beane doesn’t know something we
don’t about Moss’ surgically repaired hip. Moss is a legitimate middle of the
order power bat, averaging a .254/.340/.504 triple slash line with 25 HR and 73
RBI in his three seasons in Oakland. He was an all-star in 2014 when he jumped
out to a .268/.349/.530 line with 21 HR in 89 1st half games, but
slumped to a .173/.310/.274 2nd half, limited by a hip injury that
required surgery this offseason. Moss did his best to play through the injury,
and even hit 2 HR in Oakland’s Wild Card loss to Kansas City. If he’d simply
sat out after suffering the injury, it’s possible he wouldn’t have even been
available this offseason. The trade is confusing enough that A’s
fan sites are writing entire articles trying to rationalize exactly what Billy
Beane was thinking, and really not coming up with much to
go on other than “Trust in Billy”:

Don't get me
wrong. I hadn't heard of Wendle before we got him, and I am as shocked as you
are that he's all we got for Moss. But that doesn't mean he's automatically a
bad return, and indeed the Indians seemed quite high on him. Billy has turned
so many nobodies into quality players that I just can't get myself to give up
on one of his prizes before I've even seen him play….

…It sucks to see
yet another fan favorite go, and it sucks to feel underwhelmed by the return,
but let's give Billy the benefit of the doubt before we assume he's absolutely
lost it. There's a better chance than you might realize that this trade turns
out to be a good one, and it wouldn't be the first time Billy proved the world
wrong.

Speaking of Joey Wendle, I did want to talk a little
about the player the Indians lost in the deal. I
had Wendle ranked as my #9 prospect in the Indians organization prior to the 2014
season, coming off of a season where he posted an .885 OPS
for high-A Carolina. Wendle struggled with injuries last year, but still
managed to put up a .253/.311/.414 line with 8 HR and 50 RBI in 87 games with
AA Akron. Wendle will turn 25 in April next year, and is a high-character guy
who is always going to get the most out of his tools. He was a 6th
round pick in 2012 out of Division II West Chester University, and was seen as
a signability pick at the time. He was given just a $10,000 bonus, and the
Indians were able to save over $100,000 of their bonus pool to take a run at
high-upside high schoolers later in the draft like Nelson Rodriguez. Wendle has
the potential to be an offense-oriented 2B in the major leagues at some point,
but he doesn’t project to be an all-star. And regardless of his overall upside,
turning a $10,000 investment into an all-star 1B/OF is a pretty solid flip by
GM Chris Antonetti.

Over on Fangraphs, local
writer August Fagerstrom put together an extremely comprehensive breakdown of
the Moss trade and what it means for the Indians. Fagerstrom looks at both
Moss and Wendle’s injuries in 2014 and how they could affect both players
moving forward, then goes on to overlay Progressive Field with the Oakland Coliseum
and Moss’ batted ball spray chart to try and see how his production could
improve with the change in ballparks. Like pretty much everyone else,
Fagerstrom likes the trade for the Indians and thinks Moss could be as good or
better than he was in the first half of 2014 with the Indians next year. He
sees the Indians as legitimate contenders in 2015, and feels like Moss could be
the player that gets the Indians over the hump and into the playoffs. His bottom
line on the deal:

Wendle could
turn into a useful major league player, but the Indians are set up the middle
for the foreseeable future, and Wendle is far from an elite talent. Moss’
second-half production and ensuing hip surgery could be worrisome, but the
extreme change in parks could help offset any potential loss in production due
to his Moss’ injury and age, and the history of players with similar hip
procedures isn’t particularly concerning. And given what the Indians traded
away, this is almost a no-risk deal. If Moss, for whatever reason, doesn’t hit,
he’ll make just $7 million in 2015 and has the option to be non-tendered before
the 2016 season. If he hits like Brandon Moss, a team that was already close to
contending just added perhaps the best hitter on the team for two seasons in
exchange for a fringe-level prospect.

I’ve seen some people on the interwebs (not many,
but some) complaining because Moss plies his craft from the left side of the
plate. These people are silly and need to start woodworking, fishing,
gardening, basket weaving or some other relaxing hobby to try and occupy their
clearly cynical and misguided minds. Yes, the Indians have several left handed
hitters in their lineup. But Progressive Field favors left handed power over
right handed power (as evidenced by the very large wall in left field). Jordan
Bastian did a predictably outstanding job detailing how Moss might look in the
Cleveland lineup (if you haven’t read this already,
please do so now), and dissected and rejected any argument that his left
handedness will somehow hinder the Indians moving forward. The Indians needed
to improve their lineup going into next season, and fans have been clamoring
non-stop for a “Big Bat”™. Now that the Indians have gone out and acquired a
Big Bat™, some of those same fans are complaining because he’s not a Right
Handed Big Bat™, or because he’s not Victor Martinez. The fickle, fringe
elements of this fanbase will never cease to amaze and frustrate me.

The bigger
takeaway is that the Indians could be dangerous contenders in 2015. This team
won 92 games and earned a playoff berth in 2013, then followed up with 85 more
victories in 2014. Though moderate pullbacks for breakout stars Corey Kluber
and Michael Brantley are possible, and maybe even likely, those could be
countered by a positive reversal of fortune for All-Star second baseman turned
2014 slumper Jason Kipnis. It’s also hard to imagine the Indians failing to improve
on Murphy (who posted league-average offensive numbers, but played miserable
defense that made him a replacement-level player) and Swisher (who hit a paltry
.208/.278/.331), whether through bounce-backs for one of those guys or another
lineup upgrade to pair with Moss.

Between their strong finish to the 2014 season,
young and talented starting rotation, and solid start to the offseason, the
Indians are becoming one of the media favorites heading into 2015. It’s a
strange position to be in, and the rest of the Central Division isn’t going to
make it easy for the Indians to make it to the playoffs, but I’ll take it.

Steamer
forecasts a 128 wRC+ and +2.3 WAR per 600 PAs for Kemp versus a 121 wRC+ and
+1.9 WAR per 600 PAs for Moss. Toss in the risk associated with Moss’ hip
problems, and maybe you think the gap is even a little bit bigger than that.
And perhaps Kemp’s handedness is worth a premium, given how much more teams are
paying for right-handed power than their left-handed equivalents.

But man, it’s
hard to not like the Indians picking up Moss for a song when you see what the
asking price for Matt Kemp is.

I could continue to link to national writers who
love the Moss deal from the Indians perspective (both Baseball Prospectus and
Keith Law think the Indians did well to acquire Moss), but I think you get the
idea at this point. Needless to say, I like the trade as well. It creates a
situation where Tito Francona is going to have to get creative in getting at
bats for Moss, Swisher, Santana and Murphy, but that’s a good problem to have
(as long as Swisher is healthy and better than last year’s disaster of a
season). It also leaves plenty of time for Murphy or Swisher to be moved in a separate
deal, if the Indians can find a taker for Swisher’s contract (which I still
doubt). Francona is nothing if not creative though, and I’m confident that he’ll
find a way to keep those guys as happy and effective as possible, even if it
means he can only carry 20 bullpen arms instead of 21 (kidding, but only sort
of).

Taking a break from the flurry of activity to look
at players who are and have been on the Indians roster, Jonah
Keri put out his always-fantastic Trade Value column
this week, and
three Indians are featured prominently featured on the list.
Catcher Yan Gomes comes in at the #25 slot, and he’s behind both Michael
Brantley and Corey Kluber (#’s 16 and 15, respectively). Jason Kipnis came in
at #25 in the 2013 version of the column, but fell off of Keri’s list after his
injury-plagued 2014. Keri has minor leaguers eligible for the list for the
first time this season, but doesn’t list shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor on
his top-50 or as an honorable mention. This might be the last list like this that
doesn’t mention Lindor, at least until he signs a contract extension in 2018 or
so. It’s one thing to have talented players contenting for (and winning)
postseason awards like Cy Young, MVP and Silver Slugger. But those players are
not only talented, but signed to team friendly deals (Gomes/Brantley) or still
pre-arbitration (Kluber). Having those players, and the rest of the talented
starting rotation, for that matter, under contract at such team-friendly rates
helps allow for a move like the Indians made with Moss. Flipping a player like
Wendle who wasn’t even on the 40-man roster for an arbitration-eligible
all-star who projects to make at least $7 million wouldn’t be possible without
the savvy exhibited by the front office prior to this offseason.

Speaking of short term deals, former Indians ace
Justin Masterson agreed to a one-year, $9.5 million deal with the team that
drafted him, the Boston Red Sox. Masty was another guy that I thought would
look good back in Cleveland, and there was reportedly some level of mutual
interest in a reunion with Terry Francona and the Indians earlier this
offseason. But if Masterson had signed with the Indians, he’d have had to win a
spot in the somewhat crowded and talented rotation in spring training. With
Boston, he’ll slide right into a spot in their depleted starting five and have
a definite chance to show he can be healthy and effective over 200+ innings
again. I’m pulling for Masterson to put together a solid season, even if it is
back in Boston. If he helps pitch them to the playoffs (losing games 1 and 4 in
a 4-game Indians sweep in the ALCS, of course), then so much the better.