In more than 40 episodes spanning 75 years, equity and bond fund investors have defied predictions that they would panic and spark crises. Yet banking regulators won’t let go of their “run” scenario. Why?

TWEET DU JOUR — COMMISSION PRESIDENT JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER: “These events have affected us, but they have not made us afraid. We will continue our work.” http://bit.ly/1q1mKBc

THE KING URGES CALM AND DETERMINATION: “In response to what threatens us, we will react with determination, with calm,” the Belgium’s King Philippe said in televised remarks last night in Brussels.

POLICE URGE UPLOADS OF PHOTOS AND VIDEOS THAT CAPTURE ATTACK MOMENTS: Police have distributed a photo of a suspected surviving attacker from the airport, and have asked witnesses to upload videos and send links to footage to opsporingen@police.belgium.eu.

EU VAT PLAN POSTPONED: Originally scheduled for Wednesday, the launch has been delayed due to the attacks. The plan is aimed at combating Value Added Tax fraud.

IT’S NOT 9/11 BUT POLITICS AND POLICY WILL BE UPENDED ALL THE SAME: As a nation searches for answers, a continent faces upheaval across the board. As Matthew Karnitschnig explains, “the second major terror attack on Europe in just four months will upend the politics of everything from refugee policy to security to Brexit … There’s no good time for a terrorist attack, but Wednesday’s assaults could hardly have come at a less opportune moment for the EU.” http://politi.co/1ZqcApP

WHAT DO THE ATTACKS MEAN FOR …

THE EU TIGHTROPE WALK: It is now a fact of life that if European nations don’t work closer together and invest more in their security and intelligence services they will be increasingly vulnerable to Brussels- and Paris-style attacks. That could be either a boon for the EU (which has very limited policing and defense legal powers) or a demonstration that EU structures aren’t suitable for the sort of dynamic cooperation needed. The jury is out. Pierre Briançon on how the attack struck at European legitimacy: http://politi.co/1SgQ2F2

THE SHRINKING SCHENGEN ZONE: The EU’s passport-free travel zone may survive with restrictions, but it’s never going to feel or look the same again. “The Schengen treaty may be on its last legs … Yet it is difficult to defend in the face of terror … Earlier this month, European leaders presented a plan to restore open borders by the end of the year. The Brussels attacks will likely dash that hope … it will be difficult for even the most liberal European politician to oppose calls for stricter controls.” http://politi.co/1MzBMTa

REFUGEES — COULD BE THE NEXT VICTIMS: Simon Shuster on howEurope’s borders began to close to them after the Paris attacks in November, and are likely to be sealed up even tighter against Muslim asylum-seekers. http://ti.me/1Ry6X92

BELGIAN GOVERNANCE: It’s no secret that Belgium is a divided country, but there are now major new threats to trust and the utility of the liberal-led national coalition government of Charles Michel. The Flemish nationalists have the world on their side as they argue for more policing powers. The socialists and liberals want only cautious change: no surprise as they have the most to protect in current arrangements, and most to be embarrassed about in any wide-ranging reforms or inquiries into past behavior. Some socialists are willing to tackle taboos, however. “I think — I hope — that the attack breaks the taboo on the way security forces are organized in Brussels,” said Hans Bonte, the center-left Socialist Party mayor of Vilvoorde. The Flemish city just north of Brussels had a large number of residents joining Islamist militants in Syria and Iraq, but has put extra effort into community engagements to slow the radical flow and improve integration. Francesco Guerrera and Laurens Cerulus have more on how politicians are struggling over what needs to change in the fight against terrorism. http://politi.co/1pHxUuX

WESTERN POPULISM: The odds are that fears will increase, not decrease, and that helps the populists. Matthew Karnitschnig reminds us that France reacted to the November attacks by re-imposing border controls and making it clear that it has very little appetite to accept Syrian refugees. Next stop will be the Dutch referendum on the EU’s agreement to cooperate more closely with Ukraine: the “no” side will waste no time claiming that the Dutch should be “safe rather than sorry” with their vote. You can expect Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and others to pile on in coming days. Slovakia, which has had a hard-line approach to immigration issues, takes over the EU presidency starting in July.

US ELECTIONS: Many national security specialists fear that further attacks like the Brussels bombings will fuel the rise of Donald Trump, who yesterday insisted that he told us so about Brussels’ fate. Read Michael Crowley’s full story here.

BREXIT: The police had not even had time to detonate the abandoned third bomb at Brussels Airport before tabloid columnists and UKIP politicians joined the feeding frenzy. “This horrific act of terrorism shows that Schengen free movement and lax border controls are a threat to our security,” said U.K. Independence Party Defense spokesman Mike Hookem, an MEP. Bookmakers and academic election prediction services both rated the changes of Brexit higher by the end of Tuesday (now a 36-45 percent chance, they say). http://politi.co/25ihlG5

RECAP OF YESTERDAY’S KEY DEVELOPMENTS: 34 dead, 230 injured in three blasts in Brussels, for which ISIS/ISIL has taken responsibility. A fourth bomb was discovered and detonated in a controlled explosion at the Brussels Airport. A manhunt is underway for one of the suspects, the others are believed to have died carrying out the attacks. Explosives believed to be connected to the attacks where found in the northern Brussels district of Schaerbeek and Salah Abdeslam is believed by Belgian authorities to have been involved in planning yesterday’s attacks. http://politi.co/1XJPMQ9

SUPPORT FOR THOSE OUTSIDE OF BELGIUM: Belgian Crisis Center for people calling from outside of Belgium: +32.78.15.17.71.

EYEWITNESSES TO HORROR, IN THEIR OWN WORDS: From the POLITICO team lead by Tara Palmeri, Giulia Paravicini and Zoya Sheftalovich. http://politi.co/1S4LjUj

FIRST-HAND — THE NEW NORMAL IN BRUSSELS: Craig Winneker used to wave away concerns about security in Belgium. After jumping on the metro yesterday, and earning a brush with death as result, he no longer has that luxury. http://politi.co/22tQO9G

CAN BELGIUM BOUNCE BACK? Tim King on how the atrocities may spur the law-and-order reforms that Belgium desperately needs: http://politi.co/1SgRvuR

OPINION — WHY EUROPE CAN’T FIX ITS TERRORISM PROBLEM: Daniel Benjamin asks why “the European context underlying the attacks at Brussels Airport and the downtown Maelbeek subway station — one of alienated, underemployed and ghettoized Muslims as well as subpar security differs dramatically from anything found in the United States.” The answer is partly due to the fact that North America gained mostly well-off Muslims to fold into its communities. “By contrast, Europe’s Muslim communities were seeded by poor peasants who came as guest workers for the burgeoning industries of the postwar period. They were expected to return home. Instead, they stayed even as their industries faded … They came poor and, to a large extent, have stayed poor, with little access to higher education and much higher unemployment rates than the non-Muslim populations.” http://politi.co/1ZqbKsY

NUCLEAR STATIONS ON ALERT AND EVACUATED: The two plants — Doel, made up of four reactors, and Tihange, with three — have been closed. Military and police have been onsite since the weekend, she added. Employees who are not needed to run the two power plants have left the sites.

HOSPITAL REPORTS — ‘THE WORST I’VE EXPERIENCED IN 15 YEARS:’ Chris Spillane spoke with stunned medicos. “You’re not used to seeing people completely blown up, even if you are a professional,” professor Jean-Louis Vanoverschelde, a cardiologist who’s treating patients at Saint Luc Hospital, said in an interview. Saint Luc hospital CEO Renaud Mazy said, “It is the worst that we’ve experienced in 15 years.” http://politi.co/1UM13Aj

BEYOND THE BRUSSELS ATTACKS …

MIGRATION — FINLAND-RUSSIA BORDER RESTRICTIONS: “Finnish officials say that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to tighten controls at the joint Arctic border for a six-month period, in a move to halt the illegal crossing of migrants. President Sauli Niinisto’s office says Putin approved measures in Moscow at a meeting of the two leaders Tuesday to limit crossings at the two northern border posts to citizens of Finland, Russia and Belarus, and their families.” http://apne.ws/1ULP8CD

UK — GEORGE OSBORNE FIGHTING FOR HIS POLITICAL LIFE: That’s the assessment of POLITICO’s Morning Exchange author Francesco Guerrera after the chancellor’s shaky performances in the face of withering attacks this week.

EU DISCUSSION PAPER SUGGESTS MASS DEPORTATION OF AFGHANS: Some in the European Commission and External Action Service would like the Afghan government to accept back 80,000 failed asylum-seekers, in exchange (partly) for an unspecified number of university places in Europe for high-flying young Afghans. Matthew Holehouse reports: http://bit.ly/1VCfkAk

US — OBAMA’S TRAP FOR RAUL CASTRO: Not that it stopped the Cuban leader hanging onto Obama’s handshake for dear life as he departed Cuba. http://politi.co/1MzyXBQ

DER SPIEGEL in cooperation with eight others, is launching the “European Investigative Collaboration” (EIC). The network includes the editorial teams of the Austrian weekly magazine FALTER, the Spanish daily national El Mundo, the Italian weekly magazine L’Espresso, the Belgian daily national Le Soir, the French news website Mediapart, the weekly Serbian magazine Newsweek Serbia, the Danish daily national Politiken and the Romanian news website The Black Sea.

OPEN AGAIN TODAY IN BRUSSELSBrussels STIB, intercity and international train services

STILL CLOSED TODAY:Brussels Airport (statement from the Airports Council International here)VUB — a university in Brussels – will be closed rest of the week.KBC banks in Brussels