The seeds of the next Arab Spring

A new report suggests that Arab youth continue to be neglected
– and that demographic shifts are incubating another political crisis.

An Egyptian anti-Mubarak protesters sleeps on the wheels of a tank in Tahrir square, Cairo. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)The 2016 Arab Human Development Report (AHDR) by the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) was focused on the region’s youth – those aged
between 15 and 29 – a significant group that keeps on growing. This is the
first report of its kind to be released after the Arab Spring, and details how
young people are more politically aware and motivated to achieve their civil
and human rights. Yet they face considerable challenges, primarily economic and
security-related. The poor economic planning by the existing regimes is only prolonging
and worsening these problems, as a more politically-conscious population grows.

The unemployment
plague

Youth unemployment among those aged between 15 and 24 was at
its highest in 2014, at almost 30%, more than double the global average. By
2019, an even greater disparity will emerge, as estimates project the global
average to decline, with the Arab world’s rate increasing steadily. Considering
that the region’s population growth is the largest worldwide, over 60 million
jobs will need to be created by 2020 simply to stabilize youth unemployment.

A limited number of jobs with a growing population means that nepotism, rather than merit, is key when finding a job.

What is the root cause of this unemployment? According to
the report, it goes back to poor policy, specifically policy that “matches
demographic growth and needs of the market.” A limited number of jobs with a
growing population means that nepotism, rather than merit, is key when finding
a job.

Therefore, it comes as no surprise that unemployment and the
economy is the top priority for Arab youth, according to 75.77% of those polled.
On the other hand, internal security and stability is only top priority for
2.99%.

Arab youth want to be
more politically involved

This comes as no surprise, given the series of protests that
took place across the region from 2009, commonly referred to as the Arab Spring
or Arab Awakening. Indeed, the report does recognize a growing educated and
politically active generation, who are more knowledgeable of the problems and
injustices they face.

Youth participation in protests across the Arab region was over 18% in 2013 – almost double that of middle income countries. However, Arab youth have the lowest voting rate worldwide at 68.4%, whereas youth from middle income countries make up a hefty 87.4%.

Despite their eagerness to be part of the political process,
and the lack of formal barriers to at least some participation (in all except
eight countries), young people remain excluded. For instance, the average age
at the councils of ministers in the region is 58 years old.

Future generations will
pay a high price for today’s conflicts

Syria. Iraq. Yemen. Palestine. Libya. Somalia. The
devastation and destruction of those countries over the past few years will
take years to turn around. According to the report, 68.5% of the world’s
battle-related deaths took place in the region between 1989 and 2014, which
accounts for 27.7% globally.

But of course that doesn’t factor in other countries that aren’t in a formal state of war and have endured terrorist attacks. Indeed, in 2014 alone the region endured 45% of the world’s terrorist attacks.

While the region hosts 57.5% of the world’s
refugees, and 47% of the world’s internally displaced, the long-term
consequences as a result of the region’s conflicts are well beyond that. While
the well-documented wave of Syrian refugees have played a huge role in drastic
demographic transformations in the region, the report claims that the plight of
the Palestinians should not be cast aside, stating that “Israel’s occupation of Palestine is the longest occupation in the modern
era … during which a people has been deprived of the right to self-
determination.” The report also recognizes the brutal security-oriented state response to these protests and mobilizations

The report projects more people to be living in high
conflict risk areas. By 2050, they project that three out of four people will
be living in such regions. Fiscal trends also indicate that this projection
will be true. Between 1988 and 2014, the Arab region’s per capita military
expenditure exceeded the cumulative global average by 65%, which is about US$2
trillion. Signs don’t point to a slowdown.

Such heavy spending on the military only prolongs and
worsens existing security crises. The researchers concluded that this type of
excessive spending has a negative effect on spending on education, healthcare,
infrastructure, among other sectors that, if well taken care of, can diminish
various security risks.

Is Another Arab Spring Imminent?

It is clear that regimes across the region cannot sweep these critical issues under the rug. The 100 million 15-29 year-olds make up two-thirds of the region’s population – many are intelligent and capable of leading. While the Arab uprisings did not succeed, the report concludes that the popular uprisings indicated their ability to recognize challenges to development, express their dissatisfaction, and politically organize to fight for their demands and achieve them in a peaceful and sustainable way.

The report also recognizes the brutal security-oriented state response to these protests and mobilizations. The researchers conclude that while this approach achieves some stability and repels protesters for an indefinite period of time, not taking action on the root causes of these mobilizations will come back to haunt them. In fact, it appears that we can see the buildup of these issues, coupled with violent state response, as the catalyst for not only larger mobilizations, but also more violent ones.

This article is published in association with the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, which is seeking to contribute to public knowledge about effective democracy-strengthening by leading a discussion on openDemocracy about what approaches work best. Views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of WFD. WFD’s programmes bring together parliamentary and political party expertise to help developing countries and countries transitioning to democracy.

About the author

Kareem Chehayeb is a journalist and political analyst based in Beirut.

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