His forecast is colder than most others, including that of the National Weather Service, which says it isn't confident enough to make a prediction for those regions. While the Weather Service emphasizes sea-surface temperatures in making its weather calls, Cohen looks at Siberian snow cover, which has helped him correctly forecast temperature direction in the Northeast 75% of the time over the past 10 years. Cohen is conducting an experimental three-year project with the Weather Service.

AER's forecast, if it materializes this year, should have a particularly warming effect on retailers, who rely heavily on the winter shopping season.

"From a holiday perspective, there will be very easy comparisons to last year," says Paul Walsh, senior vice president, business solutions unit, at AER. That's when a snowstorm hit the Northeast and Midwest the weekend before Christmas for the second year in a row. "The odds are very low that will happen again."

Next Week: Preview

Monday 6

The Senate could vote this week on extending Bush-era tax cuts.

Iran resumes talks on its nuclear program with representatives of the U.S. and other major powers.