Awards Season

What the Golden Globes Tell Us About the Oscar Race

The 2017 Golden Globes have come and gone, meaning we can now devote our full attention to the two remaining major awards shows to come. The Screen Actors Guild Awards are three weeks away, while the Oscars are about a month after that. So we’ve got a ways to go. But that just gives us more time to mull things over, right? What did the Globes—caveat: an often batshit insane show that is mostly an unreliable indicator of anything—tell us about the state of awards season? Let’s take a look.

Moonlight Is in Trouble

Though Moonlight won for best picture in the drama category on Sunday night, it failed to pick up any other trophy. Not even for supporting actor Mahershala Ali, who looked like something of a lock going into the evening. That Aaron Taylor-Johnson win—perhaps the most surprising of the evening—was pure Golden Globes fluke nonsense, so we probably shouldn’t take too much stock in it. But Moonlight’s near shut-out at the Globes should give fans cause for concern. Given the obvious support that La La Land had—winning more Golden Globes than any movie ever—it’s likely that, had best picture not been separated into two categories, Moonlight would not have won anything last night. I’ve long worried that, like Carol last year, Moonlight could be a movie that’s nominated for a ton of awards but wins none. Ali is still looking like a bright spot for the film, as that Nocturnal Animals win is not likely to repeat at the Oscars. But any hopes that Moonlight might win anything beyond that at the big dance are looking dimmer. And here’s a frustrating little wrinkle: because two-hander La La Land isn’t nominated for best ensemble at the SAGs, a Moonlight win there still doesn’t really change the narrative. The film needs to start campaigning hard if it wants to fight the tide. Update: A reader reminded me that Moonlight is going to be submitted in the adapted screenplay category at the Oscars, which the Golden Globes do not have, so there is a strong chance for another win. Phew.

Isabelle Huppert Is Probably Going to Get an Oscar Nomination

The likelihood of Huppert scoring a Marion Cotillard– or Charlotte Rampling–esque European actress Oscar nod looks a lot higher now that Huppert has been graced with a Golden Globe. Sure, the true front-runner to win it all, Emma Stone, also reigned victorious last night, but Huppert’s success in the drama category was certainly good P.R. for her Oscar campaign. She may really only be campaigning for a nomination rather than a win, but still: that the greatest actress in the world (co-greatest, anyway) has zero Oscar nominations several decades into her career is an injustice that ought to be corrected this year.

With La La Land, It’s Not “if,” It’s “How Many”

The Globes and the Oscars don’t always match up. But when you have a film like La La Land perform so well—it won two acting prizes, a screenplay prize, a score prize, a song prize, a directing prize, and a best-picture prize—it’s hard not to see the Academy taking a similar shine. Ryan Gosling’s win is the most in jeopardy in the Globes-to-Oscars conversion; that prize is likely going to Casey Affleck, who won in the drama category at the Globes. La La’s screenplay is a close second. But in terms of score, song, actress, director, and picture? That could all very feasibly happen. Perhaps the swoony foreigners of the H.F.P.A. are more susceptible to La La Land’s charms than the Academy is, but that the film has an anointed momentum surrounding it is undeniable. The Oscars often challenge the Globes’ assertions—it rewarded Spotlight over the H.F.P.A.’s Revenant pick, and The King’s Speech instead of The Social Network—but La La Land may prove too enticing to resist. The Oscars also have a bunch of technical categories that the Globes don’t, and we can probably expect to see the film rewarded in those areas too. February 26 could be a big night for Lionsgate, and for jazz lovers nationwide.

The Lin-Manuel Miranda EGOT Dream May Be Dead

Speaking of that best-song win: that could could mean bad things for Hamilton (or In the Heights!) fans who were hoping to see their hero, Lin-Manuel Miranda, pick up an Academy Award—thus completing the hallowed quartet of Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony. It’s not that the La La Land songs are so great, or that Miranda’s Moana compositions aren’t. It’s just that with all the heat La La Land has behind it, it’s easy to see this smaller, more incidental side category getting swept up with the bigger narrative. My guess is that more Academy voters will see La La Land than have seen Moana—which was a hit, but was not a smash cultural phenomenon like Frozen was. (Frozen made an EGOT-er out of Robert Lopez.) Sure, Miranda has the Hamilton name recognition working for him, but the Academy is largely Los Angeles–based. Hamilton is a New York thing. La La Land? That’s pure Hollywood.