Lottery Results: Predictable

The NBA lottery, conspiracy theories aside, is a random event. But that doesn’t mean the results aren’t predictable. It would be nice to dismiss the unfortunate outcome for the Warriors as bad luck — they had an 18% chance of ending up in the 6th slot — but the team’s most recent misfortune was at least partially of their own making. By fighting to win games long after they were out of contention for anything, they decreased their odds of moving up (or even holding their record-based position). There’s no way to know whether things would have gone differently had the Warriors’ held the third worst record — a position they safely controlled until the final three weeks of the season — but there’s no dispute that their odds of having a better pick would have been higher. Instead, we secured a few wins no one will remember come October and we’re stuck multiple picks away from anything potentially resembling game-changing talent. This is how bad teams stay bad.

We’ll have a month to discuss all the options at 6, but off the top of my head:

If we keep the pick, either Johnson or Aminu would fit a need. Both are serious question marks, but drafting a small forward would allow the Warriors to move Maggette or — at the very least — reduce his minutes. Given Azubuike’ssecond knee surgery this year and uncertainty over whether Morrow returns, the team needs depth at the 3.

I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the Warriors trade back in the draft or out entirely, particularly if it allows them to offload a contract or put together a larger package for an impact player. Drafts always become clearer as the date approaches, but right now it looks like the mid-lottery will be dedicated to project power forwards. The Warriors already have two — they don’t need another. By moving into the 10-15 range, they could likely grab a project center or low-upside, but more polished swing player. By trading out entirely, they’d play to the pattern established by Nelson in earlier drafts when he’s not enamored with the talent available at the pick.

The uncertainty over the draft pick makes the pace of the team’s potential sale even more important. The choice over whether to draft at 6 or potentially trade the pick is one that the new brain trust should be making, not a front office that will likely be out of a job with a change in ownership. An owner looking to cut costs above all will approach this pick differently from one looking to stockpile talent. The same holds even if the team keeps the pick. If the new owner trusts Ellis, Randolph and/or Biedrins as future contributors, there’s an entirely different slate of players on the draft board than if the new front office is ready to move one or more of those guys. In short, we just don’t know what the new ownership will want — which likely means more false starts or aimless drifting when it comes to rebuilding the team.

What should the Warriors do with the pick? Let the speculation begin below.

Adam Lauridsen

Post navigation

And of course you have to have an owner/GM etc that doesn’t really care about being able to defend, just try to outscore the other guys every night.

It’s a great time out!

The Oracle

G$,
The 49ers going from DeBartalo to York went from an owner that cared a great deal about winning, to an owner that is very much like Cohan, thinking of the team as a business and trying to maximize return on investment.

Getting rid of the coaches and all the good expensive players was done by York and DeBartalo to save money, very Cohan like. And of course the team went down the toilet.

And they would have kept doing it to until they started going out to social events and the conversation was how cheap they were and when national commentators commented on how they were cheap and destroying a once great franchise.

The Yorks were just like Cohan at the start. But then they couldn’t stand the public ridicule, and decided to spend money to make the team competitive again. They put winning back into the equation.

So when the 49ers changed hands, it went from an owner obsessed with winning to one who only cared about making money off the team. Hopefully the W’s are going from an owner who only cares about making money off the team to an owner obsessed to winning. 🙂

Perspective

January 2006 Scott Ostler column. Nellie working to get his foot in the door:

“Drafting Ike Diogu was Nellie-esque. Diogu is undersized, lacks some of the flashier physical tools, but is clever, creative, coachable and energetic. As in Run TMC.

“I like their team,” Nelson says. “They drafted well this year. I like that kid (Diogu). I think Mully’s done a good job there, they’re about ready to turn it around.” “

The Oracle

The concept from Neslon supporters that he turned around a bad, talentless team, and made them a playoff team, dramatically overstates the case for Nelson, as usual.

That team had talent, and after the trade for SJ and AH, had a lot of talent, and in hindsight, a very nice deep bench.

As others have pointed out, Nelson had actually publicly stated that the team wouldn’t make the playoffs. The best you can say is that his statement was trying to motivate the team, the worst is that he had given up on the team before the end of the season.

But in any case, the players made an amazing run to make the playoffs despite Nelson’s comments, and then beat a Nelson type Dallas team in the first round.

I give Neslon some of the credit. The team assembled by Mullin had a lot of players suitable to an uptempo system, and Nelson and his system therefore fit the players well. But as I’ve stated before, I feel strongly that the talent Mullin assembled was a playoff caliber talent.

When you have the luxury of players like ME, KA, Pietrus, and Barnes on your bench, you’ve got talent and a very good bench.

To say Nelson perfromed a miracle with that team is to revise history.

As the quote above demonstrates, Nelson thought that Mullin had put together a nice team before he got the job to coach here.

Nelson gets partial credit, despite seeming to give up on the team way too early, but that team had talent. Championship talent? No. Playoff talent. Yes imo.

(Hint: Citing the Clips as being stuck with BD and, therefore, amenable to Nelson as a coach really doesn’t cut any mustard. Regardless, Nelson getting rehired after so many failures is hardly a novel concept when there are so many clueless owners — like Cohan and Stirling.)

Maybe you’re just not paying any attention to what’s happened here the past three or four years, NBF. Too much rote writing; not enough actual thinking.

Thanks for another informative web site. Where else could I get that type of information written in such an ideal way? I have a project that I am just now working on, and I have been on the look out for such information.