Global macro overview for 12/01/2018

The report from the December meeting of the ECB suggests that the pressure of the hawkish wing on abandoning the expansive attitude is strong. Although in October President Draghi pledged that the asset purchase program would last at least until the end of September 2018, and maybe even longer, then “even longer” does not please everyone in the Governing Council. A robust recovery in the Eurozone and record-breaking PMI indices led to the ECB allowing a change in forwarding guidance earlier this year, which would mean a definitive closure of asset purchases in the third quarter. Earlier interest rate hikes are out of the question (the ECB will keep sequencing), but setting the exact deadline for QE completion allows an aggressive valuation of the moment of the first hike (beginning 2019?). The market was excited about the ECB Meeting Minutes, because it confirmed in them that what the EUR rally was based on at the turn of the year. It is doubtful that we would receive a confirmation message from ECB at the January meeting suggesting the end of QE in September, but the next meeting in March may be interesting. On the other hand, the protocol showed a completely different picture of the discussion at the meeting than President Draghi presented at the conference. It seems that two strong camps are clashing in the Governing Council and Draghi is one of those whose comments will not be on the way to buying EUR. It is worth remembering at the next press conference, which the president can use to release doves of surprise.

Let’s now take a look at EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still is trying to break out above the 78% Fibo at the level of 0.8919 and this is its third attempt. Strong momentum and a positive stochastic support the upward view. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.8890 and 0.8869.