If J Sainsbury is leading the supermarket race then it’s slowing down with a
stitch and the gap with the panting and wheezing pack behind is narrowing.

There’ll be more evidence of this on Thursday when Tesco publishes its Christmas trading update which, this time last year, came with the significant stumble of a profit warning. A year, and £1bn of extra investment, later the country’s biggest grocer should show signs of recovering its poise.

But what about Sainsbury’s, its smaller but more sprightly rival? It has delivered yet another quarter of like-for-like sales growth in the 14 weeks to January 5, proving that Justin King, chief executive, knows how to pace things and run a good race.

Sainsbury’s survives on much thinner margins than its competitors. This gives customers more bang for their buck but means the chain has to keep running harder than rivals to generate sales so shareholders are also kept satisfied with their share of the cake. If King’s sales record deteriorates too much on already low margins, shareholders will have reason to be disgruntled. His sales-led recovery for Sainsbury’s from the Sir Peter Davis era has been impressive. But when sales are under pressure and hard to come by across the sector - and the competitive landscape changed from a decade ago, thanks to Waitrose, Aldi, Lidl, Iceland and the advent of online sales and convenience stores - then a strategic rethink may become inevitable.

Panmure Gordon’s analyst, Philip Dorgan reckons King will spend £1bn in capital expenditure this year to generate £50m of extra earnings before interest and tax. King is a firm believer that grocers with a shrinking top line can’t ultimately sustain improved earnings. He remains determined to open more stores but whether his shareholders stay as committed to a strategy that they may suspect favours customers’ interests too much over their own remains to be seen. Dorgan reckons shareholders will succeed in securing a return of capital, valuing Sainsbury’s shares at 400p, versus Wednesday night’s 330.5p.

The facts are that on £23bn of sales this year, Sainsbury’s is expected to deliver £752m of pre-tax profit. Morrisons, an apparent loser from Christmas, will deliver £5bn less in sales but £888m of profit. The conclusion is that neither company has got things quite right and both need to change. But the reality is only one of them admits it.

Late results will lead to sleepless night for Bolland

I've heard of late night shopping but late night results, as pioneered by Marks & Spencer, is an innovation shareholders can do without.

Both the detail of its trading statement and how it emerged are damaging to the company and Marc Bolland. Before investors unpick the numbers, attention will focus on who leaked them and why. I suspect it was a sleepless night for Bolland. The knives are out.

As for trading, food was acceptable but clothing is on the slide. Recovery for the new team just got harder. At least a lack of promotions mean margins remain intact so no profits warning. But M&S is still springing too many surprises of the wrong kind.

HMV might be worried after Jessops’ failure

So. Farewell then, Jessops. You’re a camera shop now in administration with 2,000 jobs at risk. Not a pretty picture. Your recent chief executive, Trevor Moore, couldn’t stop the decline when he was with you. And now he’s joined HMV. Perhaps we won’t be hearing His Masters Voice for much longer either.

Apologies to Private Eye’s EJ Thribb, but last August’s announcement that Moore had jumped from one, soon to be sunk, ship to another one badly listing and taking on water, will be taken as a bad omen by some. Not that superstition has any place in business. HMV will be fine, I’m sure, bolstered by all those valuable lessons Moore learnt at Jessops.