Thanks to everyone who participated in the predictions thread - as stated in that thread, winner gets a free month of TF. Given the sheer number of ties in the EV prediction, it's more than likely we won't know who wins this for a while when they finalize the PV count. I'll post the general stats here, and the full prediction in the next post.

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.

Oh, wow. Dean Chambers from unskewed has really toned down the derp at the last minute.Previous prediction I got from his site as of yesterday (not sure when he posted it)Obama 227 (45.8)Romney 311 (50.0)

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.

yeah, like I said after, I uploaded the wrong map. The one I meant to has OH and PA going to Romney. But Romney still wins! And America is saved--for the moment.

Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

DamnYankees:Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

I'll bet you $10 to a handful of sand that you're full of shiat. Hell, I'll bet you $10 he doesn't take PA, WI, or OH. That's the biggest right-wing mastubatory fantasy that I've seen today, and I've seen a few. Even Unskewed doesn't double down on the derp that much.

The biggest fantasy there is Romney takes WI and doesn't take NH. If he is doing well enough to take WI, NH would already be in the bag.

DamnYankees:Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

DamnYankees:Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

doyner:DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).

Yeah. He's doing exactly what he accused Silver of - changing his predictions at the last minute to come in line with the polls.

For comparison:Released October 25, 2012

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race

The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.

QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.

Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.

Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:

Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado

Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat

Florida: 54-46 Romney

Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this

Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected

Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry

Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many

New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney

New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number

New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico

Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney

DamnYankees:doyner: DamnYankees: Just as an FYI to everyone posting predictions today - obviously you are free to do so, but for fairness sake I closed the competition part this morning. So consider yourselves ineligible for the free month of TF if you happen to win. INELIGIBLE!

BTW, I downloaded your spreadsheet and did a little analysis of my own. I'll keep score tonight too; filtering out people who can't win as we go. I'll see if I can predict the winner before you call the "election."

You about to be pundited.

Cool. Should be easy to figure out - if Obama loses FL or VA, something like half of the predictions will immediately be knocked out (as 303 and 332 will basically become impossible).

The trick will be in the PV numbers in that scenario. I'ma whip out my statisticals.