Is It 2016 Yet? GQ Checks Out the Democrats Already In the Running

Last week in Charlotte, the 2012 presidential campaign was front and center and in high-definition on the stage of the Time-Warner Cable Arena. But on the outskirts of the city, under a white party tent pitched in the swampy parking lot of a budget hotel, the 2016 version of the race for the White House was already under way. That’s where the Iowa delegation to the Democratic National Convention was hosting its daily breakfast, and over the course of four days, a slew of Democrats with dreams of succeeding Barack Obama—or replacing Mitt Romney—paid visits to introduce themselves and, of course, sing the Hawkeye State’s praises.

So you had Newark Mayor Cory Booker declaring himself a "grandson of Iowa" (owing to the fact that his grandmother was from Des Moines); Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar boasting that she "can see Iowa from her front-porch" (which is actually a pretty funny joke, since Klobuchar looks a little—and sounds a lot—like Sarah Palin); and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley reminiscing about visiting all of Iowa’s 99 counties when he worked on Gary Hart’s 1984 presidential campaign. If the convention was full of soaring rhetoric and lofty goals, this was politics at its most paltry and parochial.

Which is precisely why the two Democrats who have the best shot at their party’s nomination in 2016 stayed far away from the Iowa tent. Joe Biden was in Charlotte but limited his appearances to the main event downtown. And Hillary Clinton skipped the convention altogether for a diplomatic swing through Asia. Should Hillary decide to mount a second run for the White House, she could have the field to herself, so formidable is her current standing in the party. And while Biden likely won’t scare every other Democrat out of running should he toss his hat in the ring, his status as the sitting vice president (should Obama win in November) would make him tough to beat.

But with neither Hillary nor Biden a sure thing to run, there are a lot of Democrats who are still for the moment allowed to dream big. And after a week in Charlotte, observing some of them under the Iowa tent and on the main stage, and in talking with various Democrats assembled there, here’s a list, in no particular order, of some of the most intriguing (or, if not the most intriguing, then the most outwardly ambitious) Democratic prospects for 2016. Because it’s never too early.

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Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick

It obviously depends on if Obama wins in November and then, if he does, how he fares in the second term, but if there’s a Democrat out there who wants to run as Obama’s heir, Patrick would be well-positioned to do so. Not only is he African-American and a former client of David Alrod’s—who used Patrick’s 2006 gubernatorial campaign as a bit of a model for Obama’s 2008 presidential bid—he’s an Obama pal. Indeed, there’s some speculation that Patrick could forego the final two years of his second term as Massachusetts to take a cabinet post (most likely attorney general) in a second Obama administration. Which would only further cement his status as a potential Obama heir. He wowed them during his appearance at the Iowa tent and, more importantly, during his speech from the Charlotte main stage.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa

Speaking of Obama heirs, Villaraigosa might stake a claim to that title if the thinking among Democrats come 2016 is that, having helped elect America’s first black president, it’s now time for them to help elect the country’s first Latino one. Then again, Villaraigosa didn’t help himself in Charlotte, where as the convention chair he presided over an embarrassing platform fight about God and Israel.

He also had a not-so-great week in Charlotte, flubbing his convention speech. But O’Malley, who had plenty of admirers when he breezed through the Iowa tent, doesn’t seem like the kind of guy to let one or even a dozen bad outings get in his way. He’s that self-confident. And as the chairman of the Democratic Governor’s Association, his self-confidence has seemed to grow as he’s been traveling all over the country, and hitting the TV shows, this past year. The biggest question—and pitfall—facing O’Malley at this point is: What does he stand for? Other than his own ambition, of course.

Virginia Senator Mark Warner

He almost ran in 2008 before getting cold feet at the last moment, and he seems up for giving it a go again in 2016. On paper, Warner is formidable: a former governor and now a Senator, he was a successful businessman before he entered politics. But as the Mr. Resume now on top of the Republican ticket shows, sometimes what seems good on paper is lacking in the flesh.

Cuomo’s made a point of avoiding the national press and rarely traveling outside New York—he was in Charlotte for a day and spoke only to the New York delegation there—but he clearly protests too much. As the governor of New York (and the son of the man many Democrats view as a secular saint), Cuomo doesn’t need to work the room as hard as, say, O’Malley. And with 70 percent approval ratings back home—not to mention an impressive network of donors—he’s got a huge leg up. Throw in the fact that he’s a hero to many gay activists for his successful to legalize gay marriage in New York, and he’s got the profile of a winner.

Former Governor Howard Dean

What?! Yeah, I had the same thought when one person in Charlotte suggested to me that Dean was going to run. But then after two more people floated the same scenario—with the almost identical reasoning—I could no longer dismiss it. Dean, the thinking goes, would be to the Democrats in 2016 as Newt Gingrich was to the Republicans in 2012. A former, and fallen, leader who spent some years in the cable news wilderness and now has a bone to pick. In other words, a pain in the ass. But just as Newt had his fans, Dean has his, too--and not just the activists from his 2004 campaign. He’s also got a number of Democratic state party chairs who owe their jobs to Dean’s tenure as chairman of the DNC. Dean in 2016: Just Crazy Enough It Might Work!

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Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar

Similar to my reaction to a Dean 2016 candidacy, I was initially dismissive of Klobuchar. In fact, until I saw her on the Iowa delegation’s speakers schedule, I didn’t know she even harbored presidential ambitions. But then I actually saw her speak at said breakfast and, suddenly, those ambitions didn’t seem so outlandish. Simply put, she’s funny. The porch joke wasn’t even her best of the morning. That honor goes to her recalling her first job as a car hop back in the ’70s, when she had to wear a t-shirt that read, "Take Home a Jug of Fun." She also (unlike Palin) has some serious intellectual heft—so much so that, in addition to having to declaim her interest in running for the White House, she also has to bat down questions about whether she’d accept an appointment to the Supreme Court. But the most compelling argument in favor of Klobuchar is that, should Hillary decide not to run, there’s going to be a lot of pent-up energy in the Democratic Party ready to be unleashed on another female candidate. And, right now, Klobuchar seems as good a candidate for that energy as any.

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