This will probably not do too much for Newt Gingrich in Florida on Tuesday. But, Gingrich is now playing a delegate game with Romney, much like Ronald Reagain in 1976 against Gerald Ford. The difference is that Romney is not an incumbent President.

Herman Cain on the stump will help Gingrich in many states and bring along plenty of Tea Party supporters.

Herman Cain’s Positive Intensity Score is 17, down from 29 immediately before news broke in late October about past sexual harassment allegations against him. Newt Gingrich, who has made a dramatic turnaround since the summer, saw his score improve further this week, and he now ties Cain for the highest score among the eight major GOP presidential candidates.

The current ratings are based on Nov. 1-13 Gallup polling, covering a fairly newsworthy time in the GOP campaign. Cain continued to be dogged by allegations that he sexually harassed women while he was head of the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s. Also, the eight major candidates met for two debates, the first of which will be remembered for Rick Perry’s memory lapse while he was trying to list the names of federal cabinet departments he would shut down if elected.

No surprise here. This is the conventional wisdom – Newt is rising.

Now, whether Gingrich can sustain his increasing poll numbers is another matter.

Most voters now say that the sexual harassment allegations made against Herman Cain may be both serious and true. At the same time, two-thirds believe Cain’s ethics are at least as good as most politicians. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of voters nationwide say it is at least somewhat likely the allegations against Cain are both serious and true.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on November 7-8, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Supporting Cain, GOP base evokes Thomas hearings– Conservatives rallied around Herman Cain as he battles sexual harassment allegations, likening the attacks on the Republican presidential contender to what they describe as the “high-tech lynching” of another prominent black Republican: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.The forceful early reaction to the Cain firestorm — fueled by racially charged rhetoric — suggests the Georgia businessman’s attempt to cast himself as a victim of the media and liberals is, so far, paying dividends among his conservative Republican base, who will hold considerable sway in selecting the party’s nominee. But the accusations against Cain, an untested newcomer on the political scene, may give more moderate GOP voters pause and could cause would-be donors to shy away even as Cain works to capitalize on his rising poll numbers.

With the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus less than three months away, the harassment allegations — and Cain’s response to them — have the potential to reshuffle the GOP race.

So far, the early cry from the right is to support Cain using a race-based defense and familiar targets. Becoming a target of the left and the media could bolster Cain’s support among those who view those groups with disdain.

Path to the nomination: Did Cain’s end yesterday?– At this point we don’t know what Cain knows about his own past, let alone what he knows about the issues or the task of governing. And we are reaching the point where it is hard to tell if he knows, or his campaign aides know, if they’re telling the truth.Iowans don’t need to believe he is innocent of sexual harassment to vote for him. But they do need to trust him. Virtually everything that happened yesterday with regard to this issue served to damage his trustworthiness. Beyond the point of no return? We’ll find out.

This should serve as a warning to all the vanity candidates (i.e., those without experience who run essentially as celebrities) in this and future cycles: A presidential nomination process is brutal and serious stuff. If they think there is no downside to competing, they are wrong. They may, at the end, come out diminished people, less respected and liked than when they went in.

Some people call this unfair and harmful to our political process. I disagree. If unserious and ill-prepared candidates try to take the voters for a ride, don’t bother to understand the issues or even their own weaknesses, they pretty much get what they deserve. And if voters bury their heads in the sand and vote for them anyway, they deserve what follows as well.

Will Another Shoe Drop for Cain?– Can Herman Cain survive the allegations he sexually harassed as least two women and his shifting explanation of what happened?First Read: “It all depends if there’s another allegation or a new piece of information that contradicts his current story. If there is, that would be a knockout blow. Indeed, conservative commentators largely gave Cain a free pass yesterday. Rush Limbaugh said, ‘Look at how quickly what is known as the ‘mainstream media’ goes for the ugliest racial stereotypes they can to attack a black conservative.’ And Laura Ingraham, who clerked for Clarence Thomas, said, ‘Doesn’t all this sound familiar? A black man who thinks for himself, who ends up surprising everyone…’ (One exception, however, was Karl Rove, demonstrating an establishment-vs.-base divide here.) But if another shoe drops, he most likely won’t get another free pass from them.”

The Note: “Cain’s dissembling represents a marked departure from his straight-talking persona on the campaign trail, but we still don’t know whether it spells disaster for his campaign or if it’s just a bump in the road. Will either of the two women who received monetary settlements speak publicly? Are there any other shoes to drop? If the answer to both of those questions is ‘no’, it’s hard to see this story get much more traction — even with Cains’ inconsistencies.”

Bachmann ‘Out of Money and Ideas’ in Iowa, Says Former Campaign Manager– Michele Bachmann has “run out of money and ideas” and can no longer expect to win in Iowa, her former campaign manager told ABC News on Monday.Ed Rollins, who left the campaign in September, said the Minnesota congresswoman had backed off earlier comments by her campaign that Iowa was a “must-win” state because she lacked the finances, campaign structure, and ideas to win the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

“She’s still saying the same things she said in the first the debate. There’s no substance. She says, ‘I’m going to repeal Obamacare.’ But she’s been saying that from Day 1. I told her: That’s your Tea Party speech, now you have to say what you’re going to do next.”

John Boehner: I won’t endorse in 2012 GOP presidential primary– As the GOP’s presidential primary heats up, candidates have been working to secure endorsements from Capitol Hill. But House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) isn’t likely to be among the lawmakers taking sides in the White House race.The Ohio Republican on Thursday told conservative commentator Laura Ingraham that he doesn’t plan to endorse a candidate in the primary.

Romney to deliver ‘major’ speech on Friday– In what appears to be an attempt to solidify his support among Tea Party voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will deliver a “major spending policy speech” on Friday evening at the Americans for Prosperity’s Defending the American Dream Summit in Washington, according to his campaign. On Thursday, Romney will preview his spending policy in Exeter, NH, the campaign confirms.Americans for Prosperity is a conservative organization originally funded by conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch, and it has helped organize numerous Tea Party events.

Laura Ingraham echoes call for ‘Occupy Politico’ movement– Conservative radio talk show host Laura Ingraham thinks it’s time to push back against whomever is attacking Herman Cain.On her Monday program, a caller named “Natalie” suggested an “Occupy Politico” movement to protest the news outlet’s Sunday story that alleged Cain was once accused of sexual harassment by underlings while CEO of the National Restaurant Association.

“If you’re going to come to the game with some anonymous sources, and no names attributed to any of these allegations, which are ‘he offended me,’” she said, “OK, this is so far — maybe we’ll know something else. Maybe he’s the worst person ever. OK, I don’t think so, but maybe. ‘I was offended. There was some comment that offended me. I felt like I was put upon.’ Oh please.”