Late last year we predicted the Dane County real estate market would be more balanced in 2019, based on the belief that interest rates would rise above 5%. In December, the market did cool as cautious buyers waited out a rocky stock market. The month of January was a different story, however. The stock market stabilized last month and mortgage rates moved lower rather than higher. Local home and condo buyers responded very favorably in January and are very active in the market right now.

Single family home buyers were very active in January

Single family home accepted offers increased in the month of January after decreasing by 19% the month before. As the graph below shows, accepted offers reached the 4th highest total ever for the month of

Madison mortgage rates have been falling, even though they are predicted to rise above 5% in 2019. As of this post, the rate for a 30 year fixed rate loan in Madison is below 4.5%. For a look at current local rates, contact our friends at Great Midwest Bank and Johnson Bank.

Even when rates do rise above 5%, they'll remain attractive when compared to rates over the last few decades. For example, take a look at the graph below, which shows the average 30 year mortgage rate dating back to April, 1971. Over this time period the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate loan has been above 8%, which is far above current rates.

The Dane County real estate market had cooled noticeably for 3 straight months but rebounded nicely in November with a 7% increase in single family home accepted offers. According to our MLS data below, accepted offers increased from 326 in November of 2017 to 349 in November of 2018. Last month's increase followed 3 straight months of year-over-year declines, where offers had decreased by 10%, 16%, and 8% in August, September, and October, respectively.

In the City of Madison, November accepted offers increased by 14% after decreasing by 15%, 27% and 11% in the three previous months. There's no doubt the slow-down earlier this fall was due in part by the heavy rains and flooding that hit the city of Madison very hard.

Last year we predicted 2018 would be a clear seller's market in Madison and Dane County. This year we're predicting 2019 to be a more balanced market, characterized by rising inventory and moderate price growth. You can get all of the details by viewing our 10 predictions for the 2019 market below.

Our 2019 Madison Real Estate Predictions

#1: Foreclosures will rise.

Foreclosures have been quietly rising in 2018, and we expect more of the same in 2019. This means more distressed properties will become available for sale in the coming year, but not enough to appreciably impact inventory in the Madison area.

#2: New home and condo construction will plateau.

Madison area housing starts have been flat in 2018, and this trend will continue

The flooding we experienced in August and September has negatively impacted single family home sales this fall, but overall sales activity remains strong for this time of year. Inventory remains low, and we expect it to stay low for the foreseeable future. As Dane County's population continues to grow, new homes and condos aren't being built fast enough to keep pace with demand, and prices continue to rise.

Mortgage rates have risen slightly this year and are expected to rise more in 2019. For this reason we expect prices to increase at a more subdued pace in the coming year. Stay tuned for our upcoming predictions for the 2019 real estate market, which we'll be releasing soon. In the meantime, here's a

Each year the Madison real estate market slows down in September due to the Labor Day holiday and the back-to-school rush. We see this slow-down in both the single family home and condo markets. As an example, see the graph below which shows the number of accepted offers in the Madison condo market for each month in 2017. Notice how market activity dipped significantly in September and then bounced higher in October. This is a pretty typical pattern for our market.

As expected, this pattern is repeating itself in 2018. The first half of September was a slow time for real estate, but now we're seeing market activity pick up again as we approach the month of October.

We've just completed our mid-year home and condo updates, and the latest numbers show the seller's market is alive and well in the city of Madison. Here's our quick overview of the latest trends in the Madison real estate market.

The Madison condo market

Madison condo supply is historically low and driving prices higher. Take a look at the graph below, which shows how the number of available condo listings has changed from July, 2015 to July, 2018. Amazingly, active condo listings have decreased by 48% over the last 3 years.

Over the same 3-year stretch condo supply has dipped to well below 2 months of inventory. This historically low number is indicative of a very strong seller's market.

We recently wrote how the city of Madison has become a perpetual seller's market. Our latest single family home and condo reports show the month of May was no exception. Here's a short summary of the latest market trends in Madison.

Home and condo inventory

The Madison single family home market has had less than 2 months of supply since December of 2015. Right now there are only 1.2 months of inventory in the city, which is down from 1.4 months from the same time last year.

Supply is also very low in the local condo market. Right now there are only 1.3 months of inventory available for sale in the Madison condo market, which is down from 1.5 months in June of 2017.