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Re: John Sickels' Rankings

I just tend to be very very skeptical of speed prospects with very little power. It seems like 90% of them go the way of Dee Gordon/Pokey Reese etc...

I'll believe it transitions over when I see it.

Hamilton is weird. Ive seen some lists that have him as high as the overall number 3 prospect and some that have him as low as 30th. It really comes down to the base stealing. Some think he will be the next lou brock on the bases, while others will say that stealing off minor league catchers and pitchers isn't much of an accomplishment. Also, hamilton was atrocious in the AFL for being such a highly rated prospect. I think that hurt his stock in many eyes.

I sit in the middle of the two arguments. Even if he ends up living up to the hype youre looking at the next juan pierre. Great ball player but not earth shattering.

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

Hamilton is weird. Ive seen some lists that have him as high as the overall number 3 prospect and some that have him as low as 30th. It really comes down to the base stealing. Some think he will be the next lou brock on the bases, while others will say that stealing off minor league catchers and pitchers isn't much of an accomplishment. Also, hamilton was atrocious in the AFL for being such a highly rated prospect. I think that hurt his stock in many eyes.

I sit in the middle of the two arguments. Even if he ends up living up to the hype youre looking at the next juan pierre. Great ball player but not earth shattering.

I'm not feeling the Juan Pierre comp. For one, Pierre had a noodle arm in the OF. Hamilton has a legit SS arm if he ever figures out how to use it, which should be easier now that all his throws are going to be overhand. For another, Pierre had a GREAT hit tool and terrible secondary skills. Hamilton has a good hit tool and is developing very good secondary skills. The only thing they have in common is speed.

I see Hamilton more as a Luis Castillo-type. A switch-hitter with speed and plate discipline. He doesn't have quite the contact skills that Castillo had, but he more than offsets that with better gap power. He might not hit many balls over the fence, but he has shown the ability to put himself in scoring position about 40 times a year without the benefit of a SB.

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Ive never seen a scouting report on hamilton that says he has a legit ss arm. Most say his arm isnt even close. And idk how you think he gets in scoring position like that, he had 38 xbh this season. That is nothing to write home about, even stubbs can do that

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

Ive never seen a scouting report on hamilton that says he has a legit ss arm. Most say his arm isnt even close. And idk how you think he gets in scoring position like that, he had 38 xbh this season. That is nothing to write home about, even stubbs can do that

Most reports I have seen say Hamilton has legit SS arm strength but has terrible mechanics that prevent him from showing it in games. The hope is that playing in the OF, where all the throws use an overhand delivery, will allow him to finally put his natural arm strength to use.

As far as getting himself into scoring position from the dish, I don't think the difference between 38 XBH and 40 XBH is all that outrageous. I rounded up. Big deal.

As far as comparing him to Stubbs, I hope you realize you actually paid Billy a compliment. Stubbs was always perceived as a guy with solid power when he was a prospect and slugged in the mid-400s in the majors before his contact skills eroded to the point where he was useless. If Hamilton, a guy who is purported to have '20' power on the scouting scale, can hit with as much pop as Drew Stubbs, I will be ecstatic.

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I've always read his arm is good enough, but his footwork isn't.

Ditto.

I've never heard anyone doubt his arm strength. They only doubt his ability to bring that arm strength to bear in games. Hopefully, the simpler footwork and throwing angles in the OF will allow his arm to play up to it's potential.

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I have him at #4 because I don't see a reason to doubt, at least from a pitches standpoint, that the other three aren't starters. I don't think Cingrani can start without improving his slider. Upside, he can be a #2 pitcher. Solid to good fastball velocity, good deception and outstanding ability to locate it. Real good change up. If he can get his slider to an average pitch (which is still a ways from what it is right now), he can be a heck of a starter. If the slider doesn't develop, he is probably a 7th inning reliever profile type, perhaps an 8th inning guy.

Ok, that's fair enough. Thanks for taking the time to explain that.

Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

I agree his arm is mediocre, meaning 'average'. That makes it a legit arm. Most scouting reports had him as a '45/50' on arm strength at SS, which puts him well above average for CF, and certainly nothing like the noodle-armed Juan Pierre.

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

And i was comparing him to stubbs in the way that stubbs was your last leadoff man and he didn't get very many xbh.

Stubbs had a ton of extra base hits on a per hit basis. His problem wasn't a lack of power. It was a lack of contact. When he made contact, he hit the ball with authority. Of Stubbs 431 career hits, 130 went for extra bases (30.2%). If Billy Hamilton can get on base at a 350 OBP clip and drive 30% of his hits for extra bases, the Reds will have a potential superstar on their hands. Hell, I'll be stoked if Billy can deliver 25% of his hits for extra bases, and even 20% would still be darn solid for a leadoff man with his OBP/speed profile.

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Id like to believe Hamilton will be a stud. His defense shouldnt be a problem even if he is changing positions. He is athletic and as we all know fast. If he can manage to have great plate discipline enabling him to work the count and get on base, then everything else will fall into place. Meaning lots and lots of runs and hopefully championships

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

Hamilton is weird. Ive seen some lists that have him as high as the overall number 3 prospect and some that have him as low as 30th. It really comes down to the base stealing. Some think he will be the next lou brock on the bases, while others will say that stealing off minor league catchers and pitchers isn't much of an accomplishment. Also, hamilton was atrocious in the AFL for being such a highly rated prospect. I think that hurt his stock in many eyes.

I sit in the middle of the two arguments. Even if he ends up living up to the hype youre looking at the next juan pierre. Great ball player but not earth shattering.

I don't think "many" care all that much about a few ABs after a full season, especially considering the pounding he took in that season. If they are letting those ABs influence them, you may want to point to the AFL season Mike Trout had last year to quell any doubts (.279/ .321/ .245/ .600).

Hamilton will be, as M2 so astutely pointed out in another thread, doubted until he performs well at the major league level. Moreso than most, he's the type of player that many sabermetricians tend to struggle with-- he's fast but has little over the fence power and his SBs are hard to gauge. There's a bias there, for many.

"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Back to the beginning of this. I believe that hamilton will be like pierre in that he will be a singles hitting outfielder that teams like to run on. Thats all. Also those scouting sites gave him a bad grade on arm strength. Most said it wasnt good enough to play short.

Everyone in the afl had just played a long season. And he was AWFUL. Yes its only 20 games but that doesnt change the fact that he played poorly against better compettition. Look at hos slash line. Its alot worse than trouts

Re: John Sickels' Rankings

Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam

Back to the beginning of this. I believe that hamilton will be like pierre in that he will be a singles hitting outfielder that teams like to run on. Thats all. Also those scouting sites gave him a bad grade on arm strength. Most said it wasnt good enough to play short.

Everyone in the afl had just played a long season. And he was AWFUL. Yes its only 20 games but that doesnt change the fact that he played poorly against better compettition. Look at hos slash line. Its alot worse than trouts

werent most worse than trout? the guy came in his rookie year and competed for MVP..Now thats not your everyday thing

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