February 8: Free Dubai Picks; Thunder Snow Back at Meydan

by Angus McNae, Racing UK

February 7, 2018

Benbatl was the star on show last week at Meydan. In a slowly run race where he had to race most inefficiently (111.23 per cent) he fired off a sensational final 200 metres in 21.79sec. He is, for sure, a Group one horse, now fulfilling all the potential he showed when posting a big time figure when winning the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last year. The Jebel Hatta and Dubai Turf are on his agenda. He was a winning selection here last week and that makes it eight winners for me since the Dubai World Cup Carnival started. On another stellar card here are four more selections.

Race 2 (10:05AM ET) - #4 Montsarrat (15/1)

Montsarrat was an impressive wide margin winner here on the dirt two starts ago. He made all and routed his rivals by more than 10 lengths. Next time up he was surprisingly switched to the turf, where he shaped well despite being given a far too aggressive ride by Mickael Barzalona. In effect he rode a dirt race on the turf; kicking clear but paying for his exertions. He is better than the bare result there and now returned to dirt - and able to attack from stall 1 - he can regain the winning thread.

Race 4 (11:15AM ET) - #1 Hit the Bid (GB) (2/1)

Hit The Bid gave the very fast Ertijaal a fright on the first week of the Carnival. He pressed the winner throughout and only gave way late on. He was in receipt of weight but that was still a big performance and, having been given time to get over that effort, he can win this race with authority. This contest lacks much strength in depth and the speed figures this horse has posted makes him a standout. He should be backed with confidence.

Race 5 (11:50AM ET) - #8 Thunder Snow (IRE) (2/1)

Thunder Snow won the UAE Derby in 2017 and had a decent campaign in top class company on the turf in Europe over the summer. He is being aimed at the Dubai World Cup and made a respectable start to this year’s UAE campaign when second to Heavy Metal here in round one of the Maktoum Challenge. His jockey, Christophe Soumillon, looked after him that day and he shaped really well. Thunder Snow should relish the step up in distance and he can turn the tables on Heavy Metal, who is a doubtful stayer at this trip.

Race 6 (12:25PM ET) - #16 Zaman (6/5)

I respect the chance of Tangled here, who switches from dirt to turf, but Zaman is the one for me given his classy European turf form. He was an excellent fourth to Gustav Klimt in the Superlative at Newmarket and chased home an on song Expert Eye at Goodwood. That level of form translates well to this Meydan Classic Trial and he hails from the in-form Charlie Appleby yard. Stall 11 is not at all ideal but this horse has plenty of ability and William Buick may well be able to slot in and get a decent trip in a very winnable race.

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3.30.2018

Finally the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan on Saturday is upon us and each of the nice races are of tremendous interest.
The international challengers have arrived and have all been seen at morning trackwork and, added to the mix, are some top quality domestic horses who springboard from a Carnival that can be rated as the best we have seen for a number of years.
The dirt track here poses a difficult conundrum for punters. There has been a strong inside rail advantage for the last few weeks and it has been hard for closers to get to those who can secure the rail. It would be dangerous to assume, however, that the advantage will be the same on World Cup night. For a start such things are a movable feast and secondly Bob Baffert gave his opinion earlier this week that the track had been fluffed up, which may mitigate what has been happening on the dirt track of late. The opening Godolphin Mile will be crucial in discovering how the dirt track will ride.
I have six fancies on the night, which will hopefully help us to turn £20 into a profit.
Race 1 (7:45AM ET) - Godolphin Mile (Gr 2; $1 Million) - #9 Heavy Metal (GB) (2/1)
Heavy Metal has already had a fabulous season at Meydan for the now-banned Salem Bin Ghadayer and he can cap it all off with a win in the Godolphin Mile for new trainer Sandeep Jadhav, Bin Ghadyer’s former assistant. One thing is for sure, this horse will lead early on, despite his draw in gate nine, and if the rail is the place to be he will take plenty of catching. Ryan Moore needs to send him early on and get the lead as was the case when Mickael Barzalona won on him last time out. He is a tremendously fast horse, who is ideally suited by a one-turn mile and this track really suits him. Given his early pace he will be clinging on in the closing stages but I think he will take enough petrol out of his rivals early on to negate their finishing efforts.
Race 3 (8:50AM ET) - Dubai Gold Cup (Gr 2; $1 Million) - #5 Vazirabad (FR) (2/1)
Vazirabad can win the Dubai Gold Cup for the third year in a row. The race this year is full of early pace and that will suit this hold up performer. He was beaten in his prep run for this in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy by Godolphin’s Rare Rhythm and with that horse in the field again we are set for a tremendous clash between two classy stayers. The doubt about Rare Rhythm confirming the form is the fact that he is unproven at two miles and he did rather ambush Vazirabad last time out, with Christophe Soumillon getting caught somewhat unaware of what was happening wide out on the track. Soumillon will be on his guard this time and Vazirabad should be sharper for that run. He can become the first thoroughbred to win a World Cup race three times.
Race 5 (10:05AM ET) - Al Quoz Sprint (Gr 1; $1 Million) - #9 Conquest Tsunami (15/1)
Conquest Tsunami is a fascinating runner in the Al Quoz Sprint. He is trained by California sprint guru Peter Miller and it would be fair to say this horse has improved a good deal for the switch to Miller from Mark Casse. Since making the move he has won two out of two for his new trainer at Santa Anita, progressing from claiming company to Graded stakes. This is a deep race and Blue Point has an obvious chance, but he is a short price but it is worth opposing him with this fast improving American sprinter.
Race 7 (11:35AM ET) - Dubai Turf (Gr 1; $6 Million) - #5 Benbatl (GB) (7/2)
Benbatl can win the Dubai Turf. His two wins at the Dubai World Cup Carnival this year marked him out as a classy performer and he showed that his win in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last season was no fluke. His time figure at Ascot was that of a Group One horse, as were his closing sectionals when he thrashed Bay Of Poets in the Al Rashidiya last month. He should be three from three at the Carnival, but he endured a wide trip from gate 10 of 11 last time out in the Group One Jebel Hatta, when he made a big move on the bend under James Doyle and he eventually paid for that and flattened out. He can bounce back here from a decent draw in five.
Race 8 (12:10PM ET) - Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (Gr 1; $6 Million) - #7 Hawkbill (8/1)
Hawkbill is about 8/1 for the Dubai Sheema Classic and he looks overpriced. He won on his first start here at Meydan beating Frontiersman narrowly. That in itself is not good enough to win this 12-furlong Turf Group One but he got a poor trip that day and gave away a lot of ground by racing wide. He already has some classy form to his name in Europe and he may be able to step up markedly on his reappearance run. The danger is that he could bounce out of that effort but at about I will take him each-way at the price.
Race 9 (12:50PM ET) - Dubai World Cup (Gr 1; $10 Million) - #9 West Coast (4/5)
West Coast is quite simply the best dirt horse around and he can prove it in the Dubai World Cup. His form behind Gun Runner in the Pegasus and Breeders Cup Classic stands head and shoulders above anything his rivals have achieved. His main problem will be in overcoming his wide post position in 9 and that will be even more tricky if the inside rail is Golden but I believe he figures to get a good stalking trip a day then he should be able to put them away in the straight to give Bob Baffert another Dubai World Cup.

3.9.2018

Super Saturday effectively mirrors World Cup Night without the additional and considerable international challenge. It is in effect a test for locally trained horses, a test that asks whether they can run fast enough to be competitive or even win on World Cup night and this year there are plenty of live World Cup night contenders to consider on a fiercely competitive card. Analysis of the card is skewed by the presence of horses trained by Salem Bin Ghadayer. He has had a tremendous World Cup Carnival with five winners but now a doping violation weighs heavily over him. He is allowed to have runners as this breach is the subject of an appeal but what are we to make of those runners? This is tricky for any analyst, particularly as he seems to have a few good chances on the card. From my point of view I believe it best to take their form at face value and leave the implications of the recent doping violation to the Emirates Racing Authority.
With two winners last week we are now up to 17 at the World Cup Carnival. Here are four more selections for you.
Race 1 (7:00AM ET) - Al Bastakiya Stakes - #10 Masar (IRE) (3/2)
This horse is a class act in this field. Admittedly his classy form comes on turf but the dam’s side of his pedigree - she won the UAE Derby on dirt - gives plenty of encouragement. His Solario win at Sandown and his Jean Luc Lagardere and Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf form mark him out as being very useful and if he handles the dirt he will win. He holds an entry in the UAE Derby.
Race 2 (7:35AM ET) - Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) - #8 Yalta (IRE) (4/1)
When this horse bolted up over six furlongs on dirt last time I stated that he was the best domestic sprinter we have seen so far in Dubai. Now he has a chance to cement that impression. He has blinding pace, ran a big time figure last time and even from stall eight should be able to bag the favoured inside rail. The only pace pressure he may get early in the race is from Jordan Sport, but he is a turf horse and this will be a different scenario. Two of his main rivals, Ravens Corner and My Catch, are drawn in the widest stalls which hinders their chances. Yalta can take advantage and go gate to wire.
Race 5 (9:20AM ET) - Jebel Hatta (G1) - #10 Benbatl (GB) (3/2)
This is the classiest horse we have seen so far at the Carnival. He has not yet run a big time figure but is surely capable of one. He is thriving in Dubai, having won the Singspiel Stakes and the Al Rashidiya and can now win the Jebel Hatta on his way to the Dubai Turf. He fired a remarkable sectional split for the last two furlongs of the Al Rashidiya, marking him out as a genuine Group One horse and he can prove it here.
Race 6 (10:55AM ET) - Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1) - #2 Thunder Snow (IRE) (8/5)
Thunder Snow is not a natural on dirt but he is a class act and his win in round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge is better than it looks on paper. He traveled wide that day and gave away plenty of ground and as I always say ground loss is a much ignored but vital factor when it comes to race analysis. He ground out a win there and in a field that is no stronger and over further he can book his place in the Dubai World Cup.