US spy chiefs predict Syria, Ukraine wars to drag on

The Syria war will get worse in 2016 and the Ukraine war won’t end, US intelligence chiefs have said, in what one of them called a “litany of doom”.

“Unpredictable instability has become the ‘new normal,’ and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future,” James Clapper, the US director of national intelligence, told the Senate’s armed services committee in his yearly briefing on Tuesday (9 January).

Thank you for reading EUobserver!

EUobserver is an independent, not-for-profit news organization that publishes daily news reports, analysis, and investigations from Brussels and the EU member states. We are an indispensable news source for anyone who wants to know what is going on in the EU.

We are mainly funded by advertising and subscription revenues. As advertising revenues are falling fast, we depend on subscription revenues to support our journalism.

Syria war is 'message to the West' on Russia's conventional capabilities (Photo: kremlin.ru)

He described his threat assessment as a “litany of doom”.

“In Syria, pro-regime forces have the initiative, having made some strategic gains near Aleppo and Latakia in the north, as well as in southern Syria,” he said.

He said the regime, despite being backed by Russian air power, is too weak to “accomplish strategic battlefield objectives”. But he said the other side cannot win either.

“The opposition has less equipment and fire-power, and its groups lack unity. They sometimes have competing battlefield interests and fight among themselves,” he said.

Noting that the war has displaced 11 million people, he added: “The record level of migrants, more than 1 million arriving in Europe, is likely to grow further this year.”

He said Islamic State was “somewhat on the defensive, and its territory and manpower are shrinking” but it was still a bigger threat than al-Qaeda.

He noted that its “foreign fighters”, which number 38,200, including 6,900 from Western countries, were its core threat in terms of overseas attacks.

“There are now more Sunni [Muslim] violent extremist groups, members, and safe havens than at any time in history,” he said.

Russia and Ukraine

Clapper also predicted that Russia would not back down in Ukraine.

“Moscow’s objectives in Ukraine will probably remain unchanged, including maintaining long-term influence over Kiev and frustrating its attempts to integrate into Western institutions,” he told the US senators.

“[Russian president] Putin is the first leader since Stalin to expand Russia’s territory,” he noted.

He said that despite its economic downturn, Russia continued its "aggressive military modernisation programme” and “continues to have the largest, and most capable, foreign nuclear-armed ballistic missile force”.

"With friends like that, who needs enemies?" European Council Donald Tusk asked on Wednesday, as EU leaders were trying to come up with a reply to the US president's questioning of the transatlantic relationship.

Opinion

While few people in Europe have heard of the 'Achmea' ruling, the case will have far-reaching consequences. Member states must understand the implications of the case quickly - especially those considering ratifying the EU-Canada trade agreement.