Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Dave Trembley will be announced today as the manager of the Baltimore Orioles which I think is a pretty good thing. Rick Maese is conflicted and seems to think some big names may be available in the offseason. Ozzie Guillen? Won a series on the strength of and amazing pitching staff but seems to be losing his players only a year or two removed from World Champion glory. Joe Torre? Knows how to manage superior talent which the Oriole do not have. Tony LaRussa? I don't believe he would ever come to Baltimore. I'm guessing that Andy McPhail now believes that he has no chance or luring Joe Girardi (the next Yankee manager?) so we mught as well stick with the guy we have, who has shown some modest success since taking over. In my first post referencing Trembley, I referred to him as "that bullpen guy". He has certainly been making people notice ever since. Sometimes the guy just keeping the bench warm turns out to be the best man for the job.

More Help Off The Waiver Wire

The O's have signed RP Fernando Cabrera who the Indians put on waivers last week. This is a perfect signing for Baltimore as Cabrera is the prototypical low risk-high upside type of guy that Leo Mazzone was famous for straightening out in Atlanta. With the probable loss of Chris Ray for the 2008 season (an issue I haven't addressed here but will later) Cabrera could add some much needed depth and he'll be cheap to boot. Who knows? With his stuff and Mazzone's tutelage, he could be an important factor for Baltimore in 2008. It's certainly worked OK for Jeremy Gutherie, Brain Burres and to a lesser extent, Rob Bell.

The Answer in Left?Tike Redman, huh? Although his career averages in production would surpass the production the Oriole shave trotted out the last two years, that doesn't make him a good player. He's ultimately no better with the bat then Jay Payton and although he's fast he isn't a very good basestealer. I'd rather see Freddie Bynum get the reps out in left than Redman. If Redman's anything other than a 4th outfielder on this team in 2008 I'll be very disappointed.

O's Unlucky?

Bill Ordine's O By The Way blog has pointed out quite correctly that the Orioles record is not as good as it should be according to the Pythagorean Winning Percentage. This formula predicts a win-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed and is typically accurate within 3 or 4 games. This year the O's have a 58-65 record but an expected record of 63-60, a swing of five games in the wrong direction.

What has the Baltimore Orioles underachieving? Their putrid 10-24 record in one-run games. Now some of that is luck but I believe that bad management leads to a lot of close losses too. (It's no surprise that the last two seasons where the formula expected a winning ballclub and got a losing one was in 1998 and 1999, the Ray Miller years.) I blamed Sam Perlozzo for losing the close ones but has Dave Trembley fared any better?

Taking the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) using runs scored and runs allowed since Trembley took over versus the True Wining Percentage (TWP):

PWP - .543 - 29-25TWP - .543 - 29-25

So what is apparent to the eye seems to hold true by the numbers. While Perlozzo had the team underperforming relative to production, Trembley has them right where they should be. That's good news for next season...