And now the NFL believes Josh McDaniels. They slapped his wrist for being naive, for apparently not knowing NFL rules.

But league officials, most notably commissioner Roger Goodell, believed McDaniels was not so desperate for a victory after his team's 59-14 home debacle against the Oakland Raiders the previous week that he asked video director Steve Scarnecchia to secretly tape the San Francisco 49ers' walk-through practice Oct. 30 at London's Wembley Stadium.

They believed McDaniels did not report the rule breaking because he was trying to protect a friend, which was what he and Scarnecchia have been since the two broke into the NFL together with the New England Patriots in 2001.

The league believed McDaniels did not try to cover up the rule break.

The NFL believed McDaniels didn't report the wrongdoing because he simply didn't understand the magnitude of the wrongful act. According to the NFL investigators, McDaniels thought this was just another of the daily problems that come across his desk.

Last year there was a food fight between two players. Hot chili was thrown and a burning chunk wound up in the eye of one of the players. The food fight became a full-fledged brawl between teammates.

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McDaniels was made aware of it. He addressed it with the players privately. And he moved on to his game plan.

McDaniels apparently thought this videotape incident was a problem no different than the others he encounters on a daily basis.

He was made aware of it Saturday night, Oct. 30. He said he told Scarnecchia to get rid of the tape; that he didn't want to see it. He then went on worrying about how to beat the 49ers.

And McDaniels never really gave the incident any more thought. That's what the NFL believes.

The problem is people who don't know McDaniels other than as a 3-7 head coach for the Broncos are tired of continually being put in a position to believe him.

People tend to believe in coaches who win. McDaniels has to stop losing football games if he wants to gain the trust of the fans. He has to win today at home against the still-rebuilding Rams and probably has to win at least two more games the rest of the way to keep his job.

"This particular incident that one employee took advantage of or decided to take does not sway Mr. Bowlen's feelings about Josh one way or the other," Ellis said Saturday. "He understands Josh made a mistake. Josh has acknowledged that to Mr. Bowlen. He has apologized to him.

"He understands some of the criticisms that are in place, and that's natural based on where we are — number one, where we finished last year, and where we are today."

Winning — and winning, and winning and winning — saved New England coach Bill Belichick from what the NFL determined was a more serious videotape violation.

To date, McDaniels' greatest crime as Broncos coach has been losing 15 of 20 games since his 6-0 start in 2009. Without this Spygate incident, McDaniels might have easily received a third year as Broncos head coach even if the team finished 4-12.

But this incident changes everything.

It completely embarrassed Bowlen and the man who speaks for him, Ellis. There have been too many storms and not enough victories since McDaniels took control of the Broncos franchise.

He can survive this. He has a chance to carry on because there are still people in authority who believe in him. Eventually, though, the fans — not the bosses but the fans — will have their say. And they won't believe him until he starts winning.