Those selling components for electric vehicles and those wishing to make the vehicles themselves must seek where the majority of the money is spent and will be spent. That must lead them to industrial and commercial electric vehicles because today these represent 60% of the value of the electric vehicle market. Indeed, this sector is set to grow 4.2 times in the next decade. Industrial and commercial electric vehicles include heavy industrial vehicles, the term referring to heavy lifting, as with forklifts.

Then we have buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles. There are also a few work boats and commercial boats and one day there will be commercial electric aircraft but this is really a story about the burgeoning demand for off-road industrial vehicles and on-road commercial vehicles. In particular, industrial electric vehicles make industry more efficient and commercial electric vehicles reduce congestion. Both of them greatly reduce pollution and align closely with government objectives concerning industry and the environment, yet they minimally depend on subsidy, in contrast with some other electric vehicle types.

This report covers the technical and market trends for industrial and commercial vehicles whether hybrid or pure electric, putting it in the context of electric vehicles overall and including the activities of a host of manufacturers of the vehicles and their components and even providing future technological development roadmaps.

The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law, forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well, with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants.

Yet another industrial trend is for use of electric vehicles to replace slow and often dangerous manual procedures. Sometimes a self-powered indoor crane replaces scaffolding. An electric stair climber replaces human effort and possible injury. On the other hand, sit-on floor cleaners in buildings, sit-on ice cleaners in ice rinks, outrider vehicles carried on trash collection trucks and a host of similar solutions speed processes and reduce injuries and costs.

Buses, trucks, taxis and the other light industrial and commercial vehicles are going electric for similar reasons but we must add the desire of national and local governments, who buy many of them, to go green, even where there is no payback. However, the size and growth of the industrial and commercial sector is less dependent on government funding and tax breaks than the more fragile market for electric cars, particularly pure electric ones. Excitingly, most of the electric vehicle technologies are changing and improving hugely and innovation often comes here before it is seen in the more publicised electric vehicle sectors such as cars.

Asynchronous traction motors were first widely used on forklifts: their benefits of longer life, less maintenance, low cost and freedom from magnet price hikes and heating problems are only later being seen in a few cars. Ultracapacitors otherwise known as supercapacitors permit very fast charging of buses whether by the new Level 3 charging stations or regenerative braking and they release huge surges of power when the bus is full and starting on a hill. Gas turbine range extenders have been on some buses for 12 years but they are only now being planned for cars. Fuel cells will be viable in fleets where the expensive hydrogen distribution is manageable - not for cars across the world. Energy harvesting shock absorbers about to hit the market will be very viable on buses and trucks where they can put up to 12 kW into the battery whereas such devices on cars will take longer to prove.

Nevertheless, it is important to look at industrial and commercial electric vehicles as part of all electric vehicles out there - as we do - because it is increasingly true that one company will produce EVs for many end uses and even make key components. This achieves the product reliability and cost advantages that come from highest volume manufacture based on standardisation and shared research.

Main areas the report covers

The report provides forecasts of the heavy industrial, light industrial & commercial, bus and taxi global markets by numbers, ex-factory price and total market value for the coming decade. In addition to chapters on these sectors, there are chapters on the market drivers, the key technologies and their future trends all pulled together with summary charts, graphs and profiles of latest company activity.

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1.1. Scope of the report

1.2. Forecasts 2015-2025

1.3. Effect of 2015 oil price collapse on electric vehicles

1.4. Electric vehicle end game: free non-stop road travel

2. INTRODUCTION

2.1. Urban logistics trends

2.2. Technology disagreement

2.3. The special case of China

2.3.1. Pollution control is urgent

2.3.2. Particulate matter - China the worst

2.3.3. Inadequate roads and parking

2.3.4. Example of action BYD

2.4. Biggest EV?

2.5. Different strategies

3. MARKET DRIVERS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS

3.1. Trends

3.2. Advantages of electric commercial vehicles

4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS

4.1. What is included

4.2. Challenges

4.3. Forklifts

4.3.1. Small forklift success

4.3.2. A look at many FC forklifts across the world

4.3.3. Plug Power transforms the industry

4.3.4. Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT

4.3.5. Forklift market analysis

4.3.6. FC material handling fleets and standards

4.4. Listing of manufacturers

4.4.1. Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck

4.4.2. Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs

5. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL EVS

5.1. Introduction

5.1.1. Overview

5.1.2. One quarter of commercial vehicles in Germany can be electric now?

5.2. Sub categories

5.3. Local services

5.4. Airport EVs

5.4.1. USA statistics

5.4.2. GSE by airline and airport

5.4.3. Here come hybrids

5.4.4. US incentives

5.4.5. Overall market

5.4.6. Airport applications widen

5.4.7. Sea-Tac Airport 2014

5.5. Small people-movers

5.6. Chrysler minivan in 2015

5.7. Dong Feng China big minivan order

5.8. Light industrial

5.9. Listing of manufacturers

6. BUSES AND TRUCKS

6.1. Increasing variety of bus technologies

6.2. Pure electric buses

6.3. MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery

6.4. BYD China

6.5. OLEV technology for Korean buses

6.6. ABB intermittent overhead charging

6.7. Trucks

6.7.1. General

6.7.2. Medium and heavy duty trucks

6.7.3. Travel through Munich in a vehicle that is 100% electric, clean, quiet

7. TAXIS

7.1. Electric taxi projects in China, Europe, Mexico, UK, UK, Japan

7.2. Huge order from the Philippines?

8. ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR CONSTRUCTION, AGRICULTURE AND MINING

8.1. Overview

8.2. Value proposition and environmental restrictions

8.3. Autonomous vehicles for agriculture and mining

8.4. Energy and work synchronization in mining

8.5. Light manned vehicles - PapaBravo Canada

8.6. Examples of cranes and lifters

8.7. Caterpillar and Komatsu: energy harvesting on large hybrid vehicles

9.14. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.

9.15. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade

9.16. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories

9.17. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity

9.18. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells

9.19. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years.

9.20. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.

9.21. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles

9.22. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles

9.23. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles

9.24. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels

9.25. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution

9.26. Volkswagen view of the attractions of 38V

9.27. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution

9.28. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs

9.29. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof

9.30. Here comes lithium

9.31. Approximate percentage of manufacturers offering traction batteries with less cobalt vs those offering ones with no cobalt vs those offering both. We also show the number of suppliers that offer lithium iron phosphate versions.

9.32. The Lohner-Porsche electric vehicle of 1898 showing its two in-wheel electric motors. Another version had four