Saturday, July 30, 2011

The Red Sox came into Spring Training with a few question marks, which got exaggerated during their abysmal 2-10 start. The expected "holes" were catcher and possibly shortstop.

This lists AL catchers with at least 125 plate appearances, ranked by OPS (click chart to enlarge). The Yankees' Russell Martin got off to a torrid start, but don't think that they're in a hurry to trade either Jesus Montero or Austin Romine.

Offensively, Saltalamacchia approaches Martin's numbers with far few plate appearances, and has almost the same amount of 'runs created' in Sabermetric parlance.

Salty doesn't have the same "catcher's ERA" as some others, but he also has caught a disproportionate share of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield, which can't be helping his stats.

Suffice it to say, I don't think most Sox fans see catcher as a need right now.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Commissioner Bud Selig, the highest member of baseball's hierarchy, hasn't exactly gone out of his way to support instant replay. In most fields of endeavor, politics and religion notwithstanding, "getting it right" becomes a priority not interference.

But not baseball. Baseball finds error romantic. Don Denkinger, author of the blown call at first base in the 1985 World Series doesn't like being remembered mostly for a series changing call. Jim Joyce's blown call cost Armando Galarraga a chance at baseball immortality by taking away his no-hitter last year. And last night the Pirates lost when Jerry Meals spit the bit on a scoring play in the 19th inning. Baseball acknowledged the blown call.

Baseball occasionally reverses itself. George Brett's home run in the 1983 "pine tar" game was protested and reinstated. And if replay can't be justified and human error adds pastoral value to the game, then why did baseball opt for replays for home runs?

Baseball will eventually follow the technological revolution further, to other boundary calls (e.g. fair/foul), and potentially have a smorgasbord of calls to review:

Boundary calls

Catch/trap

Safe/out on tags or "ball beats runner"

Foul tip into the dirt, strikeout or foul ball

Hit by pitch

Running lane interference (to first base)

Ideally, baseball will introduce a limited challenge approach analogous to football, with the same "indisputable evidence" rules. Yes, I know that certain 'fixtures' in the game, like Peter Gammons will argue for the status quo. But at the end of the day, getting the call right has meaning. It meant something to the Cardinals in 1985, to Galarraga last season, and who knows when it will mean something to local baseball fans?

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Theo Epstein has taken plenty of grief for the management moves that haven't worked out. Even with a pair of World Series championships, Boston might still be considered a "glass half empty" town. Maybe we haven't booed Santa Claus, but while I'm waiting patiently, I won't say that it couldn't happen.

Click to enlarge.

Here's the top ten OPS in the AL among qualifiers. You'll notice that the Red Sox have FIVE of the leaders, while no other team has more than two. You'll also recognize that three (Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Pedroia) all came through the Red Sox developmental system.

Player evaluation, just as everything else in Boston, is an inexact discipline. The Red Sox have been pioneers in using all the resources available to them (process) to optimize their performance. I'm sure that the general manager has had his share of 'agita' over the results at times, but he does deserve a lot of credit, even as a "big market" GM.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Bill James wrote the book Whatever Became of the Hall of Fame? Therein lies the lament of those who got in and didn't and sometimes why. Veterans Committee members helped elect friends, and marginal candidates got in because they did.

Do we need a Super Hall of Fame, the real pantheon of greatness, that contains only the best of the best...like Ruth, Matthewson, Williams, Cobb, Mays, Aaron, and so on? Or do we need the "Juice Bar" wing, where Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, A-Rod, and others can be recognized, with a flavorful asterisk?

It would be crazy to think that Red Sox players didn't participate in what we recognize as wide-spread cheating scandals. Certainly, we know Manny Ramirez did (failed drug tests), and one has to wonder about MANY others with either oversized muscle and physiques, or whether suddenly outsized performance. None of us can name names, but wink-wink, nod-nod, we all have an idea.

The separate but equal argument holds that both position players and pitchers cheated, ergo nullifying the advantage. That opinion also suggests that we can't know, so we can't judge. We can know who's on the list of 103, but we probably won't.

Did performance-enhancing drugs really make a difference? I wrote an article years ago comparing top sluggers of all time (pre-1980) first five full seasons average homers to their peak home run years. The same analysis showed dramatic and statistically signficant differences to "steroid era" performance. For example, during his first five years, Hank Aaron averaged 28 homers (peak 44)...and his best year he hit 47 in Atlanta in the "Launching Pad". As for Rafael Palmeiro, during his first FULL five years he hit 78 homers, average 15.6, peak 26, and during his best year he hit 47 (twice). Is it plausible that contemporary players, at advanced ages, improved that much relative to historical greats?

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

As we approach the end of the J.D. Drew era, what can we conclude about the enigmatic right fielder? His Churchillian 'finest hour' came during the 2007 post-season, with a critical grand slam against Fausto Carmona. At other times, he was capable of carrying the team with mercurial, epic heights; occasionally, although playing hard he seemed indifferent.

We love guys who wear their heart on their sleeve. Kevin Youkilis disappoints. He punishes equipment and looks penitent and fretful. Dustin Pedroia strikes out and curses the day he was born. He even gets a base hit and spins around while running to scream at the umpire over perceived indignity. But Drew approaches the marathon with as even-temper as is humanly possible. He seems to be a machine, one that gets good jumps on balls hit his way, throws accurately and well, hits the cutoff man, and runs the bases with quiet efficiency.

Baseball is a game of failure. Three successes of ten at the plate make you an all-star. Four of ten hasn't occurred for seventy years. We have blown saves, caught stealing, missed signs and other transgressions. And to quote George Carlin, the game is played at the park, not War Memorial Stadium. Every player has a finite playing mortality and Drew's seems to have come prematurely.

Or not. I don't think for a minute Drew used performance-enhancing drugs. But Peter Gammons cautioned that after drug testing came on the scene, mid 30's guys would start playing like, well, older players. The immutable (unenhanced) laws of physiology and aging have returned to the game. Home runs are down, scoring is down.

We need shed no tears for J.D. Drew, and in fact, part of his problem emanates from our expectation of performance per year...PER DOLLAR. And most of us contend, with statistical support, that even at his best, Drew didn't match OUR expectations. We want to compare the contemporary player's salary to our heroes, reminiscing that Drew was no Yaz or Lynn or Dewey.

Did Drew give ever not give an honest effort, play hard, or shirk any of his duties? I think not. But maybe he never was one of "our guys"; as Shakespeare would remind, "the fault lies not in our stars but in ourselves."

As we approach the end of the J.D. Drew era, what can we conclude about the enigmatic right fielder? His Churchillian 'finest hour' came during the 2007 post-season, with a critical grand slam against Fausto Carmona. At other times, he was capable of carrying the team with mercurial, epic heights; occasionally, although playing hard he seemed indifferent.

We love guys who wear their heart on their sleeve. Kevin Youkilis disappoints. He punishes equipment and looks penitent and fretful. Dustin Pedroia strikes out and curses the day he was born. He even gets a base hit and spins around while running to scream at the umpire over perceived indignity. But Drew approaches the marathon with as even-temper as is humanly possible. He seems to be a machine, one that gets good jumps on balls hit his way, throws accurately and well, hits the cutoff man, and runs the bases with quiet efficiency.

Baseball is a game of failure. Three successes of ten at the plate make you an all-star. Four of ten hasn't occurred for seventy years. We have blown saves, caught stealing, missed signs and other transgressions. And to quote George Carlin, the game is played at the park, not War Memorial Stadium. Every player has a finite playing mortality and Drew's seems to have come prematurely.

Or not. I don't think for a minute Drew used performance-enhancing drugs. But Peter Gammons cautioned that after drug testing came on the scene, mid 30's guys would start playing like, well, older players. The immutable (unenhanced) laws of physiology and aging have returned to the game. Home runs are down, scoring is down.

We need shed no tears for J.D. Drew, and in fact, part of his problem emanates from our expectation of performance per year...PER DOLLAR. And most of us contend, with statistical support, that even at his best, Drew didn't match OUR expectations. We want to compare the contemporary player's salary to our heroes, reminiscing that Drew was no Yaz or Lynn or Dewey.

Did Drew give an honest effort, play hard, or shirk any of his duties? I think not. But maybe he never was one of "our guys"; as Shakespeare would remind, "the fault lies not in our stars but in ourselves."

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

We tend (believe it or not) to accept overachievement as the norm and underachievement as the exception. In reality, player and team performance regularly varies, sometimes dramatically. Even within a season, you have periods where players struggle (e.g. Dustin Pedroia), then catch fire. It all evens out...not really.

So as we prepare for the second half, including the trade deadline, what observations can we make?

Saturday, July 09, 2011

Derek Jeter achieved a career milestone with a 5-for-5 day, and game winning hit, getting the 3000th with homerun. The Yankee captain did so at home against division rival Tampa and Red Sox nation has to be happy for a long-time rival.

Jeter's career and five championship rings mark him as a first ballot Hall of Famer, and he's done nothing to tarnish his reputation off the field.

Nonetheless, the Red Sox go to bed in first place, a game ahead of the Yankees, with rookie Kyle Weiland facing the Birds tomorrow.

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see why the Red Sox are in first place in the AL East.

Click the chart to enlarge.

They have four players in the top 17 in OPS, and three among the top eight. Kevin Youkilis is underrated in this regard, even with some health struggles lately.

The Sox lead the league in runs (the final common denominator), on base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base slugging percentage OPS.

Defensively, they have the third fewest errors with 44, just behind Tampa (42) and Chicago (43)...statistically, this isn't significantly different.

On the mound, they have moved up to eighth in ERA (3.94) after a horrendous start and despite the struggles of John Lackey. Of course, omitting Lackey would be like measuring inflation without including food and energy prices. Golly, we do that!

And I'm not wild about trading the restocked farm system for Andre' Ethier either. You think Ellsbury money is growing on trees? Ethier's OPS is .827, not much different from Pedroia's and FAR LOWER than Drew's three year (2008-2010) .874. That's the fact, Jack.

Who do you think has more "black ink" points (league leader) for their career, Derek Jeter or Dustin Pedroia?

Thursday, July 07, 2011

Before the season, most observers wondered about the productivity the Red Sox would receive from the catching position. An aging Jason Varitek and an unproven Jarrod Saltalamacchia didn't inspire an abundance of confidence. But as we head into the All-Star break, a funny thing happened on the way to Arizona.

Among AL catchers with at least 100 plate appearances, the Red Sox duo rank 5-6, and combined would lead in runs scored, doubles, and be second in runs batted in. Of course, this doesn't include Saltalamacchia's tater tonight. Okay, they'd also lead in strikeouts, but you take the bitter with the sweet.

Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Growing up, we read about sports, the on-the-field, he (mostly he) did this or didn't do that. Sports nowadays gets intricately intertwined with societal malaise: medicine, lawyers, and money.

The lead story of the day is Roger Clemens trial. Was it injury, pride, greed, or something else that allegedly turned Clemens to seek professional help?

The other stories du jour about the Red Sox are Lester (lat strain), Youkilis (hit by pitch injury, foot injury, etc), Buchholz (back pain), the forgotten Jed Lowrie (shoulder), and so forth. The good news is that Jacoby Ellsbury goes to the All-Star game instead of to the doctor and that the Adrian Gonzalez to right field story didn't end up in the training room.

Meanwhile, the NFL and the NBA fight the perennial billionaires versus millionaires fight, and sports journalists need secondary law degrees to report on the story. Strike, lockout, work stoppage, National Labor Relations board, mediation, retirees file to join suit, blah-blah-blah.

Well, there are occasional sports stories to wonder about...Derek Jeter approaching 3,000 hits, but then there's Albert Pujols, with an injury story AND impending free agency.