CD-ROM archives of Clearing Up and California Energy Markets are available for purchase and delivery.

Western Price Survey / Archives

May 3, 2002
Loads and Prices Flatten in West

Load profile charts flattened out and the spread
between peak and off-peak prices narrowed considerably
late in the week. Despite a big jump in the unit
maintenance list caused by the scheduled refueling
outage for 1,110 MW Diablo Canyon No. 1 starting last
Sunday, the eventual lifting of transmission
constraints on the California/Oregon Intertie helped
keep price pressures in check.

The COI was held to 2,400 MW southbound for the past
two weeks on springtime repair work and to help
accommodate the flow of California hydroelectricity.
That had built something of a wall between the hydro-
soaked Northwest and Northern California and increased
the spread between peak period prices in the two
trading regions. Off-peak prices saw less of a shut-in
effect, as demand has been low and relatively more
hydro seeped into the resource mix.

With the restoration of border transfer capability to
4,000 MW this week, the difference between Mid-
Columbia and California/Oregon Border prices shrank.
By Thursday's trades, COB was down to 24 mills and
Mid-C fell in the 20.5 mills to 22.5 mills/KWh range.

After having touched 34 mills earlier, NP15 and SP15
both gave way to downward pressure and showed a range
of 25 mills to 28.5 mills/KWh for Friday/Saturday
deliveries. Palo Verde ended up in the lower end of
that range, but it had not been higher than 32
mills/KWh.

Somewhat surprisingly, off-peak prices took a jump,
moving from 14 mills to 18 mills/KWh at Mid-C and from
16.5 mills to 18 mills/KWh in Northern California.
SP15 and Palo Verde were seen in the 14.5 mills to
16.25 mills/KWh vicinity.

The Columbia Generating Station is on the margin in
the Northwest, but Bonneville Power Administration has
been backing off excess sales so it seems the nuke
unit is filling a need at top output. BPA will offer
just 50 MW during weekend hours, after having been out
of the market altogether for a few days. For Sunday
and Monday, BPA also made a 50 MW off-peak offer at
market prices.

Planned maintenance at Morro Bay Nos. 1-4 took out an
additional 1,000 MW from available resources, but that
was just one chunk of the 16,000 MW outage list put
out by the California Independent System Operator. The
unplanned outage list swelled to 2,700 MW Thursday as
the 750 MW Moss Landing No. 7 tripped from planned to
unplanned outage status, signaling a problem with
restart.

Cal-ISO's daily peak period has shifted to the 11 am
to noon period, with a secondary shoulder period after
8 pm. Regional schedulers found that to be an unusual
pattern, but also noted that overall loads have been
quite low at 29,500 MW or less each day. Moderate
weather and daylight-saving time appear to have
softened the evening peak [Arthur O'Donnell].

Gas Turnaround Spns Traders' Heads

Natural gas prices collapsed at many Western hubs
heading into the weekend after a steep climb propelled
by the start of a new trading month. As a result, the
weekly spread of prices at hubs was quite broad and
thanks to a huge fluctuation in Southwestern basin
supplies, the regional differentiation was equally
pronounced. Traders said they were "perplexed" by the
sudden shifts and a little concerned by the jittery
pricing that moved up and down by $0.20/MMBtu in a
single session. National traders also noted the
growing gap between expectations for June prices and
the reality of slack May demand. NYMEX June contracts
bounced around in the $3.50 to $3.76/MMBtu range late
in the week even as daily prices slid.

Topock, the main Western pricing point was all over
the place, dropping from a midweek high of $3.43 to a
low point of $3.06/MMBtu. The Permian Basin price
stretched even higher to $3.52 and did not fall quite
as far but landed at $3.12/MMBtu.

Where Permian and San Juan basin prices frequently
play tag with each other, the New Mexico fields were
far out of reach this week in the $2.20 to $3.09/MMBtu
range. There have been continuing deliverability
problem on the El Paso system and the slack demand for
power generation fuel in California is pushing lots of
supply into storage.

This will be the last week that the American Gas
Association reports on storage/withdrawal figures,
giving the job up to the federal Energy Information
Administration starting next week. AGA saw a total 38
Bcf add to storage this week, with 13 Bcf of that in
Western reserves. The EIA surveys will increase the
number of reporting entities to 45 out of the 110
national storage operators, but the weekly report will
come out on Thursdays rather than midweek.

The Alberta gas price hiked to $(C)4.62/Gigajoule
midweek before giving back ground to settle at
$4.38/Gj
[A. O'D.].

Western Electricity Prices
Week of April 29-May 3, 2002

Hub

Peak (heavy)

Off-peak (light)

Alberta Pool (C$)

30.5-92

8-29.75

Mid-Columbia

18-23

14-18

COB

24-30

16-18

NP 15

25.75-34

16.5-20

SP 15

25.5-34

14.75-18

Palo Verde

24.75-31.75

15-18

Archives of the Western Price Survey for the past year are also available online.

The Western Price Survey is excerpted from Energy NewsData's
comprehensive regional news services. See for yourself how
NewsData reporters put events in an accurate and meaningful
context -- request a
sample of either or both
California Energy Markets and Clearing Up.