Survivor Kaoh Rong Week 9 Predictions and Poll

Medevac Scenario Game

After our traditional Hiatus of Respect, we’re back at it with evac scenarios with John looking to tie things up.

Who had the better week 8 evac scenario?

John: Julia gets dysentery from bad ice cream (64% Votes)

Andy: Jason is attacked by the Death Bed: The Bed That Eats (36% Votes)

Total Voters: 66

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Current score: Andy 3 John 2

Predictions

Andy: Sometimes previews misdirect, sometimes they play it straight. If the preview were suggesting that Tai, or Debbie, or Jason, or Obvious Winner Michele™ were in trouble, I’d pay less head to it. Because it’s not so much that it hinted that Julia might be in trouble, it’s that it featured Julia at all. We’re at the point in the season where “this episode is about Julia” = “Julia is going home”.

John:Michele is going home. To us, she’s the secret, under-the-radar leader of the women’s alliance. (Cydney is just the figurehead, obviously.) But that’s just because the edit is hiding her glory from us. It’s impossible for a big personality playing such an active role to hide during the actual game, so everyone there knows she’s a huge threat. And they’ll neutralize that threat immediately.

Emma: Given his cocky edit, I think ​this​ week is finally the one where Nick will… Wait, what’s that? Nick got voted out last week? I was… I was right? Okay, hmmm. That changes everything. I shall use my newfound power to hope the women’s alliance holds strong. Everyone is against Jason and Scot at this point, so they split the vote. Super idol, shmuper idol. Tai voted for Jason last week, so Jason plays his idol before the vote and Scot goes home. Maybe someday someone under six feet tall will be on the jury.

Mark: This has to be the week where my amazing Pick-6 team hits the buzzsaw. Even if the girls are mad at Julia for cozying up to Scot (as hinted in previews), I’m not sure she votes with the guys in the end. (And even if she does, Joe counteracts that vote, as we saw last week.) So as revenge for their assholery, I can see the girls targeting Tai and Jason now that everyone knows about the super idol. That super idol could save either of them, but I don’t see Jason using it on anyone but himself. Exit the best player in the game in a 4-3-2: Mark the Chicken. Wait, sorry, Tai. America cries and viewership plummets 30%.

Matt: Okay this week it is everybody against Scot and Jason but some of the people in the middle are getting a little big for their britches. The brains want to take back control of the big alliance and need to eliminate someone on their side and don’t view Scot and Jason as threatening enough to target. Meanwhile the brains wanting to make an in alliance power play try to enlist Scot and Jason for one vote and they want Cydney gone for betraying them. And so Cydney goes home blindsided by an unlikely alliance. Either that or Michele goes home. Definitely Michele. My pick is Michele

Andy

John

Emma

Mark

Matt

Readers

First
Elimination

Alecia

Alecia

Alecia

Alecia

Darnell

Alecia

Second
Elimination

Cydney

Cydney

Cydney

Alecia

Alecia

Alecia

Third
Elimination

Debbie

Joe

Joe

Liz

Joe

Joe

FourthElimination

Caleb

Caleb

Neal

Caleb

Caleb

Caleb

SixthElimination

Neal

Joe

Nick

Nick

Neal

Nick

SeventhElimination

Peter

Joe

Julia

Peter

Peter

Peter

EighthElimination

Aubry

Nick

Nick

Joe

Joe

Joe

NinthElimination

Cydney

Cydney

Nick

Debbie

Michele

Nick

TenthElimination

Julia

Michele

Scot

Tai

Michele

Score

Preseason
Winner
Pick

Peter

Michele

Jennifer

Michele

Peter

Jennifer

Midseason
Winner
Pick

Tai

Michele

Aubry

Michele

Tai

Michele

Who will be the next eliminated player on Survivor Kaoh Rong?

Scot (40% Votes)

Julia (15% Votes)

Cydney (11% Votes)

Jason (8% Votes)

Michele (8% Votes)

Debbie (7% Votes)

Tai (5% Votes)

Joe (4% Votes)

Aubry (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 73

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Winner Prediction

Look, we all know that the answer is Michele. No need to get all ranty about it.

Through week 8 poll: who will win Survivor Kaoh Rong?

Michele (29% Votes)

Aubry (27% Votes)

Cydney (16% Votes)

Tai (12% Votes)

Julia (6% Votes)

Debbie (4% Votes)

Scot (4% Votes)

Jason (1% Votes)

Joe (1% Votes)

Total Voters: 77

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Who was the Week 8 MVP?

As suggested by commenter Roswulf, this might be the far more interesting discussion than trying to read tea leaves on the winner. So have it, who had the best week? Use whatever definition you want to make your vote. And comment below if you’d like to further the discussion.

Co-host of the Purple Rock Survivor Podcast and the Canadian of the group, Andy has been watching Survivor continuously since the very beginning and likes to treat that as some kind of virtue to lord over others.

Serious question – do you really think Jon can win Survivor? I mean, he’s an okay player, but he had a ton of blindspots in SJDS that were mostly related to a tendency to see the best in people that is admirable, but maybe not something you expect in a winner.

I think the pool of people who “can” win Survivor is way larger than we like to think. There’s so much randomness to the game.

I mean, Kass gets lucky on a crapshoot of a final three challenge, WOO wins Survivor. If Woo can do it, Jon Misch round 2 can do it. Unless by “it” we mean make me love him, in which case Woo stands alone…well, not alone, but a good ways away from Jon Misch.

I think you are right on the pool of players who can win being big but I think it’s very situational, do I think Jon Misch can win any other season of Survivor than SJDS? not so much, could he have won SJDS? hell yes.

Jon wasn’t really far off winning San Juan Del Sur. You get a lesser player in the Natalie spot, and his 5 person fall-on-the-sword alliance is probably enough to give him the game. In general, if Fabio can win, who’s basically a less intelligent version of Jon, Jon can win.

Do I think he can win in an All Star season? I don’t know. Someone who played like he did in SJDS can’t, but we’ve seen players come back and fix fairly major mistakes before. If he can be a little more suspicious and start seeing the game from the other player’s perspectives, he’s got the social game and the basic knowledge of strategy to do it.

This really is a pretty sensible decision, though. They were at the merge with two groups of equal power, both with a scheming mastermind at their head. In that situation, why not group up with the side you think you’ll be better able to tolerate for the next 20 days?

I thought the group they got into was much better for Jaclyn as a player but not for Jon. If we treat them as separate players in a ride or die alliance then going with the women was a better decision.

I wasn’t neccesarily just meaning going with Jeremy, Jon could have been the one eyed man in the land of the blind with the guys but he was the one eyed guy where Natalie could see perfectly fucking fine.

No. He is not that smart, he’s an example of a player who was in their perfect situation to win but a better player got them. SJDS was the perfect opportunity for Jon Misch or Keith to win, both would struggle to get the votes at the end in a returnee season (Keith was fine in Cambodia, did essentially the same thing as SJDS but would have lost to Jeremy, Wentworth or Spencer had he got to final 3).

He’s probably smart enough in real life. I don’t think he’s got massive game play intelligence. Keith obviously has zero. I’m just saying Keith’s best possible situation for winning a season of Survivor was SJDS with those guys on the jury.

Someone voted for Tai. Yeah he won immunity but he voted for someone in his alliance who didn’t go home and he spilled the secret of the superidol without any need to. Who on earth thinks he was the MVP?

COMPLETELY FAKE PREDICTION: Kyle is going home this week. Last week the editors shoehorned in him talking about his daughter because it was too good to leave on the floor and they had to get it in before he went. Now that it’s been aired, he’s fodder.

I don’t really believe any of the above, I’m exhausted from the analysis of what that scene really meeeeaaans, man.

The OWM (Obvious Winner Michele) isn’t going anywhere, so that leaves 8 people, and of those 8, 5 seem to be aligned, and then Tai doing who knows what, so…barring Super Idols, I say the likeliest suspects to go home would be Scot, Jason, or Tai. I’d think Jason would be more likely to play his idol, so…flip a coin and say Scot.

Look why at this point are you targeting OWM, Julia or Joe? They are soft targets, you’ve got Tai who is good at challenges, Scot and Kyle who are troublemakers at camp and Aubry and Debbie who are seen are thinky.

I’m not targeting OWM, I would never do that, due to her OW-ing-ness. Mostly I’m looking at the three people who seem to be outside the alliance. Oh, and maybe Cydney. But I’ll still go with Scot. He’s a big tree and big trees break. Whereas Tai is a leaf on the wind. Watch how he soa…wait, no, scratch that analogy.

I’ll dissent with the majority and choose Debbie for MVP. The 3 people this vote was obviously good for were the 3 brains. I don’t think Cydney would have been so willing to make this move had Debbie not bonded with her at the tribe swap. She also did a great job answering Jeff’s questions at tribal council too, especially when she jumped on Tai’s comments about the super idol. I’m worried this might be the beginning of the end for Cydney, but I really hope not.

I think this raises a question of what MVP means. Certainly Cydney controlled the vote. Within this three day period, she did the most things that worked.

But ultimately Cydney’s machinations didn’t increase her chance of victory (from an island, not an edit perspective) as much as Debbie (or hell, as Joe- JOE!) playing relatively passively for a round.

I still give the title to Cydney. Her tactical maneuvering was sufficiently impressive that I’m willing to ignore that strategically she swum in a very pretty and elaborate circle and ended up where she started- as a key member of a majority alliance, lacking really close allies within that alliance and thus figuring as something of an intra-alliance swing vote.

I agree with you. I vote MVP based on best game play over the 3 days (not necessarily best move for themselves long term) and best character in the episode. Cydney was both. It’s a shame I don’t think the move will benefit her in the end. I think she’s our 5/6 boot as once the men are gone she’s obviously the biggest target.