Mississippi Senate race: Hyde-Smith takes early lead over Espy in runoff

President Donald Trump says he needs Mississippi voters to elect Cindy Hyde-Smith to the U.S. Senate to help him continue his administration's "unprecedented" accomplishments (Nov. 26)
AP

U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith listens to a fellow panelist of President Donald Trump's roundtable on criminal justice reform initiatives in Gulfport, Mississippi, before a rally in support of her runoff campaign against Democratic candidate Mike Espy in Biloxi Nov. 26, 2018.(Photo: Sarah Warnock, Clarion Ledger)

The race has drawn national attention from both parties as Hyde-Smith has sought to tamp down a controversy over her remarks about a "public hanging" that evoked memories of the state's brutal past of slavery and racism.

Espy is seeking to become Mississippi's first black U.S. senator since Reconstruction. President Donald Trump held two rallies in the state on Monday for Hyde-Smith, urging voters to turn out.

Here's what you need to know about Tuesday's runoff:

Why a runoff?

The race is the conclusion of a special election for the seat of Republican Sen. Thad Cochran, who retired in April. Hyde-Smith was appointed to fill the seat for the remainder of Cochran's term, becoming the first woman to represent Mississippi in Congress.

The candidates were forced into a runoff after neither won a majority in the Nov. 6 election. The race split three ways, with Hyde-Smith earning 41.3 percent of the vote to Espy's 40.9 and former state senator Chris McDaniel snatching 16.4 percent.

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. CST.

Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann said that as of Monday, 46,428 absentee ballots had been requested for the runoff, portending high and perhaps record turnout, at least by runoff standards. The Nov. 6 election set a record for a Mississippi midterm, with more than 940,000 votes cast of the 1.8 million registered voters.

The candidates and the controversies

In the weeks leading up to Tuesday's runoff, Hyde-Smith was plagued by controversy. She continues to face backlash from comments made Nov. 2 that she'd be in the "front row" if invited to a "public hanging." The former beef cattle farmer and state agriculture commissioner was also caught on video making comments about voter suppression.

Hyde-Smith's critics say her comments have stirred up images of lynching and Mississippi's racist past, which was underscored Monday when nooses were found hanging from trees near the state's capitol in Jackson.

In his uphill battle to defeat Hyde-Smith, Espy has walked a fine line on the issue of race as he attempts to win over voters. A former congressman and U.S. secretary of agriculture in the Clinton administration, Espy has focused on casting himself as a moderate who can work with both parties on issues like access to health care.

African-American turnout is key

Although Hyde-Smith's lead in the polls has shrunk in recent weeks, she's still favored to win. To pull off an upset, Espy needs to motivate African-Americans voters to turn out and also capture the votes of some white voters.

“The contest is going to be decided on race one way or the other because Espy’s path to victory is dependent on African-American turnout," Jennifer Duffy, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Report, told USA TODAY.

About 38 percent of Mississippians are African-American. Black voters in the state lean strongly Democratic. But the state has historically been a Republican stronghold, as many white voters favor the GOP.

What this means for the Senate

The Mississippi runoff is the last Senate contest this election cycle. If Hyde-Smith wins Tuesday, Republicans will have 53 seats next year instead of the 51 they now hold. Even if she loses, Republicans will still hold a majority in the Senate but will have one less vote to count on.

A total of 53 votes gives Republican Senate leaders room for potential defections but it would not put them over the threshold for most controversial bills, which need 60 votes. While winning a majority in the Senate, Republicans saw control of the House flip to Democrats in the midterms.