Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Lock in Harvin

With Matt Schaub done for the year, the Texans will turn to Matt Leinart for the final six games. What should we expect? "This team has a terrific run game," observed NFL Films' Greg Cosell on PFT Live this week. "It's clearly the foundation of everything they do. They seem to run the ball well against everybody." Cosell anticipates coach Gary Kubiak using the ground attack to "manipulate" and protect Leinart, probably asking him to throw no more than 18-22 times a week. Schaub wasn't throwing often in the first place, averaging 23 pass attempts in his previous four games. Expect heavy doses of Arian Foster, an increased role for Ben Tate, and Leinart to operate strictly as a "game manager." The Texans' new quarterback lacks fantasy appeal. ... All signs point to Andre Johnson (hamstring) playing extensively against the Jaguars after a full practice week. Johnson is as good a bet as any wideout to lead the NFL in "target rate" (player targets divided by team targets) the rest of the way. The conservative, run-dominated offense may cap Johnson's upside slightly, but I'd guess that when Leinart drops back there will be roughly a 40% chance his throws will be intended for Johnson. With top CB Rashean Mathis on injured reserve, it's hard to imagine the Jaguars keeping Johnson covered. Start 'em.

UPDATE: The Jaguars placed CB Derek Cox on injured reserve with a knee ailment Friday, ending his season. They've now lost both of their starting cornerbacks for the year, making it even more likely that Johnson will be open frequently in Sunday's game.

Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and even Owen Daniels will struggle for consistent production with Johnson back. Daniels will likely spend long stretches on the line blocking, while Jones resumes his situational deep threat job and Walter reverts to seldom-targeted possession wideout. I'd have trouble relying on any of the above as a stretch-run fantasy starter. ... The Jaguars opened the season playing above-average run defense, but it's no longer an intimidating unit after being decimated by injuries. NT Terrance Knighton has a high ankle sprain, LE Matt Roth is coming off a concussion, and WLB Clint Session joined Mathis on I.R. this week. With those players all sidelined last Sunday, Jacksonville allowed Chris Ogbonnaya to rack up 134 yards, a touchdown, and average 5.48 yards per carry. Foster will smoke this defense, and Ben Tate could too if the Texans jump out to an early lead. The latter is a solid bet considering the Jaguars' inept offense.

Remember when Oakland was a fantasy wasteland? Jacksonville has taken its place. "No. 1 receiver" Mike Thomas hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3 and is averaging 14 receiving yards in his last five games. ... Jason Hill might be the worst starting wideout in the league. He had a game-blowing end-zone drop with :03 left against Cleveland in Week 11 and should be on fantasy rosters nowhere. ... Blaine Gabbert turned in his best game of the season against the Browns. Obviously, that's not saying much. He has the poorest pocket presence in football and is a lock to struggle against Houston's No. 1 defense. ... Marcedes Lewis set season highs in receptions (7) and yards (64) against the Browns. He needs to string together at least two more decent games to even be roster-able. ... Maurice Jones-Drew is the Jaguars' lone shining light, somehow maintaining productivity despite an embarrassing supporting cast. Even against the Texans' top-four run defense, MJD is a strong RB2 because he gets the rock 23 times a game.

Score Prediction: Texans 30, Jaguars 7

4:05PM ET Games

Chicago @ Oakland

Caleb Hanie is an intriguing prospect with plus arm strength and athleticism, but his move into the starting lineup in place of a previously red-hot Jay Cutler bodes poorly for Chicago's passing game. Hanie's drawbacks have been accuracy and decision making, so OC Mike Martz will be sure to minimize the new quarterback's impact on games. Martz hasn't been a Hanie supporter from the start, carrying washed-up 39-year-old Todd Collins as Cutler's primary backup -- ahead of Hanie -- throughout last season. Earl Bennett was the lone Bears receiver on the fantasy radar. The beneficiary of a longtime rapport with Cutler, Bennett should be on benches until Hanie proves capable of getting him the football and moving the offense with his arm. Hanie has tried 14 career passes in the regular season, so all bets are off until we see him play at least four full quarters.

Without Cutler through Week 16 at least, coach Lovie Smith has made it clear that the Bears will lean heavily on contract-year tailback Matt Forte during the 5-6 week interim. "Offensively, we’re going to rely on our running game a little bit more," said Smith on Monday. Defenses may stack the box against Chicago going forward, but they were doing that already, and Forte is on pace for career highs in rushing yards (1,482) and yards-per-carry average (4.98) while leading the league in yards from scrimmage. He also has the stretch-run schedule to compensate for any increased defensive attention. Forte's next three games are against the Raiders (No. 25 run defense), Chiefs (28), and Broncos (16). In Week 16 -- fantasy championship week -- Forte will square off with a Packers defense he's averaged 131 total yards against in the clubs' past three meetings.

The Bears are playing the toughest pass defense in football during their five-game winning streak. Over that span, Chicago has limited quarterbacks to 132-of-225 passing (58.7%) for 1,362 yards (6.05 YPA), five touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Opponents have included Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, and a healthy Michael Vick, so the Bears aren't preying on chump passers. Carson Palmer drops from QB1 to clear-cut QB2 because of the forbidding matchup. Oakland's passing game also relies heavily on vertical strikes, plays Smith's Cover-2 zone is precisely designed to stop. ... After rolling his ankle in last week's win over the Vikings, Denarius Moore showed up at the Raiders' facility in a protective boot Wednesday. The injury and mismatch should give fantasy owners plenty of reason to keep Moore on benches for Week 12. There will be better days ahead.

Moore, Jacoby Ford (foot), and Darrius Heyward-Bey (concussion) are all either banged up or out for this game, making it conceivable that the Raiders' three-receiver set against the Bears will be comprised of Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The drop-off in terms of explosiveness would be dramatic. Expect Hue Jackson to unleash Michael Bush for a fourth straight week. While Chicago's No. 10 run-defense ranking looks rough on paper, the Bears are beatable on the ground on a per-play basis. Across the NFL, only the Lions, Saints, and Raiders are allowing a higher yards-per-carry average to opponents than the Bears' 4.94 clip. Averaging 29 touches per game in his last four starts under Jackson, Bush is a legit RB1 in Week 12. ... Kevin Boss may be worth a desperation start due to Oakland's receiver shortage and Chicago's tight end-friendly defense, but he offers very little upside. He's cleared 40 yards once as a Raider.

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Bears 17

Washington @ Seattle

No Redskins running back will be a Week 12 fantasy option against the Seahawks' top-eight run defense, I will take this time anyway to examine Mike Shanahan’s confounding backfield usage. Whereas "backup" Roy Helu has racked up 246 yards on his last 50 carries (4.92 YPC), "starter" Ryan Torain has 67 yards on 36 attempts (1.86 YPC) since his flash-in-the-pan Week 4 game against the Rams. The last rushing touchdown scored against Seattle occurred on October 2, so this is an easy matchup to avoid for such a befuddling backfield. But if the stats are right -- and they usually are -- the Redskins might have been a bit more competitive during their six-game losing streak had Helu been the starting running back, and not Torain. ... Perhaps one positive sign for Helu could be gleaned from Shanahan's comments about newly signed Evan Royster, who spent the season's first 11 weeks on Washington's practice squad. Shanahan praised Royster's improvement in pass protection, a job performed primarily by Helu on game days since Tim Hightower tore his ACL. It's pure speculation, but maybe Royster will be mixed in on passing downs moving forward, with Helu's early-down role expanding at Torain's expense. But that's probably just wishful thinking.

Santana Moss will return from his fractured hand at Seattle, becoming a WR3 candidate to watch for the stretch run. As mentioned previously in this space, Moss led Washington in targets when Rex Grossman was starting early in the season. I'd use this week to monitor Moss, sit him against Darrelle Revis' Jets in Week 13, and perhaps start him versus the Patriots, Giants, and Vikings in the fantasy playoffs. ... Jabar Gaffney's 7-115-1 game in Week 11 is sure to prove a mirage with Moss back. Seattle presents a favorable matchup in terms of pass defense, but Gaffney won't be seeing double-digit targets again anytime soon. ... Moss' return figures to hurt Fred Davis in the long run, but the Redskins' tight end is set up for success in this particular matchup. Over the past three games, Seattle has been dusted for 21 catches, 219 yards, and three touchdowns by tight ends. When re-watching Seahawks games, it often appears as if there is no one left in coverage over the middle from down to down. I would bet on Davis leading the Skins in receiving this week.

The Seahawks square off Sunday with a Redskins defense that leads the NFL in sacks and ranks in the top ten versus the pass. Washington has allowed only 11 TD passes in ten games. Tarvaris Jackson has a 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio since returning from his strained right pectoral four games ago, and his yardage has dropped in four straight weeks. I think the Seahawks can beat the Skins, but not with their passing game. Avoid Doug Baldwin, Big Mike Williams, and Ben Obomanu. Sidney Rice is a dicey WR3, especially after he missed practice time with a knee injury this week. Rice has had knee problems since entering the league. ... I've never been a Marshawn Lynch believer, but he appears to be in the best physical condition of his career, and the volume is hard to argue with. The Seahawks are force feeding him the rock with a league-high 90 touches in his last three games. Washington can be run on, so this isn't a prohibitive matchup. Lynch is a worthy RB2/flex.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 17, Redskins 16

1:00PM ET Games

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Adrian Peterson's high ankle sprain will thrust Percy Harvin into the primary playmaker role in Minnesota's offense. Coach Leslie Frazier is all for it. "One of the things coming out of the (Week 9) bye, we wanted to come up with more ways to get Percy the football," Frazier said this week. "That's what we have been trying to do. ... The fact that Adrian wasn't in the ball game created more opportunities for Percy." After Peterson went down in the first quarter of Week 11, Harvin racked up seven touches, gaining 63 yards with a touchdown. He was targeted a team-high eight times and operated as the Vikings' change-of-pace back behind Toby Gerhart. Harvin also had a would-be 35-yard TD run negated by a Michael Jenkins holding call. Perhaps an even bigger fantasy beneficiary than Gerhart from the Peterson injury, Harvin is a candidate for 15 touches at Atlanta. He'll have a particularly favorable matchup in the slot against Chris Owens. Oft-burned throughout his career, Owens is playing in place of Kelvin Hayden (foot). ... Gerhart will start in the Vikings' backfield, but is likely to struggle against the Falcons' No. 2 run defense. Lacking any hint of elusiveness, Gerhart would likely need a goal-line touchdown to be a worthwhile fantasy play. Unless you're truly desperate for a fill-in flex, Gerhart probably isn't worth the waiver claim.

Here is Christian Ponder's updated target distribution over the past three games: Harvin 21, Devin Aromashodu 16, Kyle Rudolph 13, Jenkins 13, Visanthe Shiancoe 11. ... Jenkins has not cleared 50 yards or scored in any of Ponder's last three starts. ... Shiancoe and Rudolph are canceling each other out. Rudolph is a nice long-term prospect -- keep in mind Shiancoe is in a contract year -- but neither will find a groove this season. ... Aromashodu plays a ton of snaps, but is just a better blocking version of Bernard Berrian. Aromashodu has one catch on his last ten targets. ... Ponder showed moxie bringing the Vikings back from a 24-7 first-half deficit in Week 11, leading two quick fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Of course, Ponder was part of the reason Minnesota fell behind in the first place. He still passed for 211 yards, ran for 71 more, and threw two touchdown passes. When Ponder finally starts putting together complete games -- and gets better wideouts -- he's going to be a borderline fantasy starter. He's well worth a two-QB league play against Atlanta's No. 26 pass defense.

Matt Ryan has been most effective at home throughout his career, and the trend has held true this season. Whereas Ryan has a 9:5 TD-to-INT ratio in five Georgia Dome games in 2011, his score-to-pick ratio falls to 6:5 in five away games. In this week's home game, Ryan couldn't ask for a more favorable matchup. The Vikings' defense ranks 28th versus the pass and has permitted a league-most 19 touchdown passes. Only the Colts allow enemy quarterbacks to complete a higher percentage of throws. For Sunday and Monday's games, these are the only three fantasy QBs I'd play over Ryan: 1) Cam Newton 2) Tom Brady 3) Drew Brees. ... Julio Jones is 14 days removed from his latest hamstring pull. While he carries some risk of re-injury, Jones will be near impossible to bench against the Antoine Winfield-, Chris Cook-less Minnesota secondary. Jones also went through an extensive practice on Thanksgiving and is fully expected to start. "I thought I was going to be rusty, but I wasn't," said Jones after the practice. "I feel real good about it." ... Roddy White took over last week's game in the second half against an underrated Tennessee back end, beating double teams en route to 147 yards on seven receptions. White should be considered a legit WR1 this week as he faces off with Vikings LCB Asher Allen. Cedric Griffin will primarily be on Jones.

Atlanta's Week 8 bye seemed to come at a good time for 35-year-old Tony Gonzalez, who's found pay dirt in three consecutive games since. Gonzalez has a plus matchup this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed two touchdowns to tight ends in the last three games, plus 209 yards on 16 receptions. It's a five-catch, 70-yard weekly average. ... Glass-half full Michael Turner owners can fall back on Michael Bush's Week 11 rushing line (30-109-1) as reason for Week 12 optimism. Unlike Bush, however, Turner is a zero in the passing game and rarely compensates statistically when defenses hold him scoreless. Prior to last week, the Vikings had not allowed a tailback to rush for a touchdown since Marion Barber vultured a three-yard score from Matt Forte in Week 6. Turner now ranks third in the NFL in carries, which remains concerning considering last year's dramatic late-season drop-off after another monster workload. Minnesota ranks ninth against the run, and Turner's Week 13 opponent, Houston, is fourth in rush defense. The winds are blowing toward a disappointing fantasy finish for "The Burner."

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Vikings 20

Buffalo @ NY Jets

A crumbling Bills offense goes on the road Sunday to face a Jets defense against which Ryan Fitzpatrick has been horrific. In five career meetings with Darrelle Revis' unit, Fitz has completed 66-of-139 passes (47.5%) for 685 yards (4.93 YPA), four touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has never cleared 200 yards against the Jets. With as badly as Fitzpatrick has played recently, it's hard to imagine using him even in a two-QB league. ... This is also a prohibitive matchup for Bills receivers. The Jets will assign Revis to Stevie Johnson, and Naaman Roosevelt will take over for Donald Jones (ankle) at split end. Roosevelt, who ran 4.60, 4.63 coming out of college, lacks the big-play ability of Jones and will struggle to separate downfield. ... Slot receiver David Nelson has continued to battle an illness this week after it bothered him throughout last Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. Nelson was spotted vomiting on the bench and missed a big portion of the game. On a day when the entire Bills passing attack is likely to struggle, Nelson isn't worth the stomach ache.

UPDATE: As Bills offensive skill players continue to drop like flies, Roosevelt was ruled out for this game on Friday with a shoulder injury. He's expected to be replaced outside by some rotation of Ruvell Martin, Brad Smith, and Kamar Aiken. Nelson is listed as probable.

Fresh after a ten-day layoff following last Thursday's loss to Denver, the Jets' run defense has rebounded from its slow start. New York has allowed one touchdown to a tailback since Week 5, over that span permitting 394 yards on 114 carries (3.46 YPC) to the position. My suspicion is that the Bills will produce very few yards and points with offensive centerpiece Fred Jackson (calf) now on injured reserve. Left behind is C.J. Spiller as the starting halfback and physical rookie Johnny White. Fearful of contact and ineffective between the tackles, Spiller is a PPR option only in this matchup. He won't have much, if any rushing success against the stout Jets. ... White may be a more intriguing pickup for non-PPR owners. A quick-footed, downhill back who "runs angry," according to Pro Football Weekly's pre-draft scouting report, White could soon emerge as the favorite for inside carries in Buffalo's backfield. ... In a trend reversal, typically touchdown-dependent Bills TE Scott Chandler set career highs in catches (5) and yards (71) in last week's loss to Miami. Chandler played a season-most 50 snaps against the Dolphins, continuing to operate as a slot receiver in the Bills' Pistol Spread offense. Chandler's playing-time increase may have been due to Jones' in-game injury, as well as the fact that Buffalo fell behind 21-3 early and quickly entered pass-heavy comeback mode. With the bye weeks out of the way, here's guessing you can find a better Week 12 tight end starter.

Talk is brewing in Buffalo that DC George Edwards is on the hot seat, which makes sense considering the Bills' bottom-seven defensive rankings in points (26th), yards (26th), sacks (29th), and rushing TDs (30th) allowed. Cleared from his Week 11 rib injury, Shonn Greene should resume bell-cow status against Buffalo's soft front seven. In his last three matchups with the Bills, Greene has 252 yards on 52 carries (4.85 YPC) -- better production than he's enjoyed against any team in his career. Greene is a poor bet for a monster effort because he lacks passing-game value and big-play talent, but he's a worthwhile low-end RB2. ... Showing better cutting ability and short-area elusiveness than usual Jets passing-down specialist LaDanian Tomlinson, Joe McKnight filled in nicely for Greene against the Broncos, racking up 121 total yards. McKnight will have a limited role with Greene back healthy, but he may very well have supplanted Tomlinson in all passing sets.

Jets coach Rex Ryan gave Mark Brunell a handful of first-team practice reps this week after Mark Sanchez's implosion at Denver. Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's identity-less offense has 79 passes compared to 47 designed runs in their last two games, so Ryan is undoubtedly feeling a bit ornery. During the extended layoff, it seems likely that Ryan would've been in Schottenheimer's ear about the playcalling. Expect a heavily run-first approach from the Jets in this must-win game, curtailing Sanchez's pass attempts and fantasy upside. He's just a two-quarterback league option. ... In their last eight games, the Bills have yielded 45 receptions for 571 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends, good for a six-catch, 72-yard weekly average. Dustin Keller isn't going to blow the doors off in fantasy football, but he's got a favorable matchup. ... Bills LCB Terrence McGee would have covered Santonio Holmes for the majority of snaps in this game, but McGee tore his patellar tendon in last week's loss to the Dolphins. Against Miami, recently benched Leodis McKelvin took McGee's place at left cornerback, with rookie Aaron Williams in the slot and Drayton Florence at right corner in the nickel. McKelvin was then benched again in practice this week, replaced by seventh-round rookie Justin Rogers. The Bills can't rush the passer and all of their remaining cornerbacks have struggled in coverage, so Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress should get open plenty. Whether Sanchez will connect -- or be given the opportunity to connect -- with Plax and Holmes is unanswerable question. I like the latter as a WR3 and former as a solid bet to score.

Score Prediction: Jets 24, Bills 10

Arizona @ St. Louis

We've pegged the Cardinals as a favorable matchup for opposing ground attacks for most of the season, in large part because they've allowed 12 rushing TDs through ten games. Realistically, though, Arizona has been respectable against the run and is a top-ten unit in yards per carry allowed (4.04). That may change with NT Dan Williams done for the year after breaking his arm in Week 11. The 26th pick in the 2010 draft, Williams was realizing his immense potential as an early-down plugger before the injury. The Cards will turn to seventh-round rookie David Carter at nose tackle moving forward, and in terms of body type it's a dramatic change. Whereas Williams was a fire hydrant at 6-foot-2, 327, Carter will struggle to get beneath guards and centers at an angular 6'5/297. In the trenches, the low man wins. Steven Jackson, who lit into Arizona for 142 yards earlier this season, now has a more favorable matchup. ... Assuming game flow allows, the Rams must lean heavily on S-Jax on Sunday. Both of St. Louis' starting offensive tackles are out, as is "swing tackle" Mark LeVoir with a strained pectoral. Since returning from his high ankle sprain a month ago, Sam Bradford has completed 58-of-101 passes (57.4%) for 591 yards (5.85 YPA), two touchdowns, and five turnovers. Both Bradford and his protection aren't good enough for the Rams to rely on the pass to move the ball. Feel free to drop Bradford in standard leagues.

Veering from their Weeks 1-10 strategy of "playing sides" in the secondary, the Cards employed rookie Patrick Peterson in a shadow technique during last week's loss to San Francisco. The result? 49ers No. 1 wide receiver Michael Crabtree's season-high 120 yards. Peterson supplied Crabtree with large amounts of cushion, and struggled to flip his hips and run with the wideout when Crabtree got by him. It was a brutal torching, and one that doesn't bode well for Peterson's chances of staying at cornerback long term. It also foreshadows a big game for Brandon Lloyd, who's scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and is the No. 8 overall fantasy receiver over the past five weeks. ... Behind Lloyd, the Rams' pass-catching corps has become a fantasy wasteland. Starting Z receiver Brandon Gibson catches only dump-off passes, while Mark Clayton (knees), Danario Alexander (hamstring), and Austin Pettis (knee) have all been banged up. Lance Kendricks has been reduced to a part-time player. In Week 11, he played 23-of-64 snaps (36%). Clayton was placed on season-ending injured reserve on Thursday, so he can safely be dropped.

The Week 11 box score shows only eight carries for Beanie Wells, and coach Ken Whisenhunt confirmed afterwards that the Cardinals "managed" Wells' workload due to concerns with his knee. I re-watched all of Wells' snaps, and came away convinced that Arizona could've been far more competitive against the 49ers had he played a bigger role. Wells made sharp cuts, displayed impressive burst up the middle, and had a run-tough San Francisco defense on its heels whenever he was in the game. My expectation is that Whisenhunt and his staff will see the same thing on tape and turn back to Wells as their offensive centerpiece against St. Louis' last-ranked run defense. It's also worth noting that Rams MLB James Laurinaitis (foot) and NT Justin Bannan (shoulder) are nursing injuries. Trot out Wells as a high-end RB2 in the most favorable matchup he'll see the rest of the way. ... In rather predictable fashion, John Skelton went back in the tank against the 49ers in Week 11. After completing just 6-of-19 passes with three interceptions and a fumble, Skelton was mercifully yanked in favor of Richard Bartel in the fourth quarter. Kevin Kolb (foot, toe) is tentatively expected to resume starting against the Rams, but no member of the Cardinals’ quarterback corps is a fantasy option.

It's reasonable to have little faith in the Cardinals' signal callers, but just as reasonable to believe Larry Fitzgerald will be open for the entirety of Sunday's game. Decimated by injuries in the secondary, the Rams may be forced to start street free agent Roderick Hood and practice squad type Josh Gordy at cornerback should Justin King (ankle, knee) not play. King is Pro Football Focus' 103rd-rated corner out of 104, so it's not as if his activity would improve St. Louis' coverage. In situations like Fitzgerald's, sometimes you just have to trust the dominance of the player. With four touchdowns in his last three games despite the uncertainty under center, Fitz certainly has that part down pat. ... Early Doucet and Andre Roberts should be off the fantasy radar this week. Rushing attempts are sure to increase on Arizona's side after last week's lopsided 35:11 pass-to-run ratio, and both Doucet and Roberts offer scant week-to-week upside even when the Cardinals' offense is hitting on all cylinders. That hasn't happened much this year.

Score Prediction: Rams 23, Cardinals 21

Carolina @ Indianapolis

In their last six games, the Colts' defense has been shredded for a 15:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 1,463 yards on 174 throws (8.41 YPA), and a 73.6 completion rate by Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. Not quite Murderers' Row. In the Lucas Oil Stadium dome, Cam Newton has the best fantasy matchup of any quarterback who will take the field in Week 12. ... Steve Smith's yardage has slowed down over the past few weeks, but he's maintained WR1 value with a touchdown in two of the last three. Smitty is too physical for Indianapolis' soft corners to handle over the middle and downfield. ... Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee are trading off weeks out-producing one another. While LaFell's snaps have risen, he's scored just once since Week 2 and is averaging under 30 yards per game over that span. Naanee remains a plodding possession receiver lacking any hint of big-play ability, but keep an eye on his health status. Naanee is battling Achilles' tendinitis, and LaFell would be an every-down player against a Colts defense routinely smoked by big receivers if Naanee can't play. LaFell is 6'3/211.

I anticipated personnel change during Carolina's bye two weeks ago, but it hasn't come to fruition. Neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart has exceeded 14 touches in two games since, and D-Will's legs have appeared fresher with a 6.0 per-carry average compared to J-Stew's 3.75. Stewart remains the superior all-purpose back, but neither is better than a risky flex option. It's sad to say versus Indianapolis' No. 31 run defense. If I'm deciding between the two, my bet is still on Stewart. ... Whereas the Colts have been shredded by physical wideouts, they're one of the NFL's stingiest defenses to tight ends. Over the Colts' last six games, they've allowed 29 catches for 214 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends -- a weekly average of 36 yards on under five receptions. The Colts have held Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, Jermaine Gresham all below 55 yards. The No. 9 fantasy player at his position, Greg Olsen is only a borderline starter for Week 12.

The Colts have elected to stay the course with Curtis Painter after contemplating a quarterback change during their Week 11 bye. Painter will be on a short leash. In his last five games, Painter has completed 84-of-146 passes (57.5%) for 697 yards (4.77 YPA) with a 1:7 TD-to-INT ratio and an eighth turnover on a lost fumble. He's been benched for Dan Orlovsky twice. It'd be a stretch to trust any Indianapolis pass catcher in fantasy football. Jacob Tamme led the Colts in receiving (6-75) in their last game, but it could just as easily be Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, or a running back against the Panthers. ... A matchup against Carolina is frothing-at-the-mouth good for any backfield, but there's no way to tell which Colts runner will lead the way in touches, snaps, or yards. Joseph Addai is still not quite 100 percent after the off week, and three different players have led Indianapolis in rushing over their last four games. It means nothing, but my tentative expectation is that Donald Brown will be the lead back for at least one more week, with Addai perhaps serving as the blitz-protection specialist. Delone Carter would be third string. Ultimately, none of the above is a confident fantasy starter. Brown would be the best bet.

Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Colts 16

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee

You can read Tuesday's chat for my thoughts on Chris Johnson after covering his Week 11 game at Atlanta. He is an awful, apathetic football player, and it's a shame he's put his organization in a situation where coach Mike Munchak has to throw the O-Line under the bus on a weekly basis in order to cover for the Titans' $55 million mistake. Fantasy owners just have to hold their breath that favorable matchups leave open running lanes for Johnson, because he refuses to create yards himself. The Bucs are 26th against the run, have allowed the second most rushing scores in the NFL, and will be without LE Michael Bennett (groin) on Sunday. The matchup is great. The player is terrible. Good luck. ... The Titans have deemed Matt Hasselbeck's sprained right elbow healthy enough to start. It's debatable whether that's a positive move for the offense. Whereas rookie Jake Locker led the Titans to 14 points in two possessions off the bench last week, Hasselbeck generated three points in six series. Hasselbeck is an immobile 36-year-old with well below average arm strength and lacks an explosive enough supporting cast to compensate. Locker is an aggressive, rocket-armed possible franchise quarterback with playmaking athleticism and at least the potential to make the players around him more effective and productive. Should the Tennessee offense start slow Sunday, do not be surprised if Locker starts the second half.

Here were the Titans' receiving stats with Hasselbeck under center for the greater portion of three quarters last week, against Atlanta's No. 26 pass defense: Nate Washington 5-47, Jared Cook 2-16, Damian Williams 1-16, Lavelle Hawkins 0-0. Tennessee's stats with Locker at quarterback for just over one quarter: Washington 4-68-2, Cook 3-35, Williams 0-0, Hawkins 1-32. Locker did have 19 attempts in what was essentially pass-heavy comeback mode, but Hasselbeck had 25. I'd feel uncomfortable using any Tennessee pass catchers with Hasselbeck starting games. ... In terms of matchups, Williams has the best one this week versus Bucs RCB Ronde Barber. Barber is getting routinely roasted this season, and despite Williams' underwhelming production against the Falcons, he did lead the Titans in targets. ... Cook could have a favorable matchup and it wouldn't matter because his playing time and passing-game role are incredibly inconsistent. ... Washington will have his hands full with Bucs top CB Aqib Talib. Talib has rebounded from a slow start to allow just two touchdown passes in his last six games, according to Pro Football Focus.

LeGarrette Blount ought to send a thank-you letter to the Falcons for softening up Tennessee's front seven with 30 touches, 124 yards, and a touchdown via Atlanta big backs Michael Turner (5'10/244) and Jason Snelling (5'11/234) last week. Tennessee was manhandled in the trenches, losing MLB Barrett Ruud (groin) and LE Derrick Morgan (ankle) during the course of battle. The Titans now rank 22nd against the run, and should be the first to go down during Blount's favorable stretch-run schedule. The 247-pound power back gets Carolina (30th vs. run) twice, a crumbling Jacksonville defense, and Dallas after this game. Don't forget that the Titans are the same team that waived Blount after a 2010 preseason he capped off with 114 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries (4.4 YPC) in his final three exhibition games. He won't lack for motivation, and Blount is an incredibly difficult runner to tackle with a full head of steam. ... Mike Williams has quietly strung together strong efforts in four of his last five games, racking up at least six catches four times and finding pay dirt last week for the first time since the opener. Unfortunately, Williams is going to square off with Titans RCB Alterraun Verner and slot CB Cortland Finnegan throughout Sunday's affair. Both Titans corners have been terrific in coverage this season. Williams is a low-end WR3.

As alluded to above, the Titans play stout pass defense, making this an unlikely matchup to get Josh Freeman back on track. While his two-touchdown, 342-yard Week 11 game at Green Bay did provide glimpses of promise, he's just a two-QB league starter. ... The Packers didn't take Kellen Winslow seriously last week, allowing him to run unguarded over the middle. Winslow's 132 yards were a career high. A return to Earth is most likely, but it's worth noting that Tennessee has consistently presented a favorable matchup for Winslow's position. Over the last seven games, the Titans have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends and 41 receptions for 557 yards. It's a nearly six-catch, 80-yard weekly average. ... Arrelious Benn had not topped 50 yards since Week 6 entering last Sunday's game, so his five-catch, 75-yard effort essentially came out of the blue. Continuing to rotate with Dezmon Briscoe, Benn is an extremely unreliable fantasy player. ... Preston Parker has found pay dirt once in the last five weeks and is averaging 2.5 receptions for 34 yards during that span. The Bucs' slot receiver can safely be dropped from fantasy rosters.

Score Prediction: Bucs 20, Titans 17

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

The Browns have scaled back Colt McCoy's pass attempts recently, and their passing game has become stagnant behind rookie wideout Greg Little. While McCoy's YPA has risen incrementally, he's averaged just 196 yards with three passing scores in his last five games. Cincinnati's pass defense is no longer a forbidding matchup following top CB Leon Hall's Achilles' tear, but McCoy simply isn't an effective enough passer to capitalize. With decreasing volume, he's not even a viable QB2. ... Little lacks potential for truly dominant performances because Cleveland's overall offense is devoid of explosiveness, but he's well worthy of a WR3 look in this matchup. Had Hall been healthy, he would have covered Little on all base-offensive snaps because Hall was a right corner and Little lines up to the left side of the Browns' formation. Instead, he will draw Pacman Jones outside and Nate Clements when Little kicks to the slot in obvious passing sets. Little has continued to dominate targets from McCoy, yet again leading Cleveland in the statistic last week.

Speaking of targets, here is McCoy's distribution since the Browns' Week 5 bye: Little 52, Josh Cribbs 27, Ben Watson 26, Evan Moore 13, Mohamed Massaquoi 12, Jordan Norwood 12. ... Cribbs came off the bench behind Norwood and Massaquoi in Week 11 to score his fourth TD of the year. He remains a return-yardage league option only. ... Moore has not been targeted in the last two games. ... Watson hasn't scored and is averaging under 30 yards a game since the off week. ... Coach Pat Shurmur announced that Montario Hardesty (calf) will return to the starting lineup after missing the last three games. Shurmur hinted at a timeshare with Chris Ogbonnaya, making the Browns' backfield a situation to avoid in a difficult matchup. Cincinnati's No. 3 run defense is allowing 3.41 yards per carry on the season, the second lowest average in the league.

Andy Dalton has exceeded expectations with an ability to make big-time NFL throws this season, settling in as a quality fantasy QB2. "He's got a little bit of moxie to him," observed avid game-tape watcher Greg Cosell of NFL Films on PFT Live this week. "He's a little bit of a gunslinger." Dalton's stats aren't off the charts, but he has eight touchdowns in his last four games despite tough matchups with the pass defenses of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Tennessee. "He's willing to stick the ball," added Cosell. "... You have to be willing to stand there and deliver the football in the face of pressure. And Andy Dalton has shown those two attributes very, very well." It usually bothers me when observers tag any undersized signal caller such as Colt McCoy or Kellen Moore as "the next Drew Brees," but I think it can apply for Dalton. I'd feel good about A.J. Green long term, and even Jerome Simpson if Green's balky knee holds him out of another game. ... Green's return to practice this week does bode strongly for his chances of playing. Joe Haden's coverage makes for a difficult matchup, but Green is difficult to sit as the No. 11 overall wideout in fantasy points per game. Truly receiver-rich owners can use this as a "wait-and-see" week for Green, citing his first game back from the hyperextended knee plus bone bruise, as well as the Haden factor.

Opposing tailbacks have diced up the Browns' defense for 657 yards and four rushing scores on 125 carries (5.26 YPC) across the last four games. Coming off a two-touchdown effort, Bengals contract-year running back Cedric Benson has a real problem on his hands if he can't capitalize on this matchup. Losing stretches of playing time recently to Bernard Scott, Benson has managed just 286 yards on his last 90 carries (3.18 YPC). If you're starting Benson, you're betting against the opponent, not on the player. ... Cleveland has presented an easier matchup for opposing tight ends with SS T.J. Ward out of the lineup for the past three games. During that span, the tight ends of St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Houston have combined for 17 catches and 157 yards. It's not an overwhelming clip in terms of yardage, but the catches and targets project to be there for Jermaine Gresham as a low-end TE1. Don't forget that Gresham racked up six grabs for 58 yards and a touchdown in his Week 1 meeting with Cleveland. And that was with Ward on the field.

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Browns 14

Houston @ Jacksonville

With Matt Schaub done for the year, the Texans will turn to Matt Leinart for the final six games. What should we expect? "This team has a terrific run game," observed NFL Films' Greg Cosell on PFT Live this week. "It's clearly the foundation of everything they do. They seem to run the ball well against everybody." Cosell anticipates coach Gary Kubiak using the ground attack to "manipulate" and protect Leinart, probably asking him to throw no more than 18-22 times a week. Schaub wasn't throwing often in the first place, averaging 23 pass attempts in his previous four games. Expect heavy doses of Arian Foster, an increased role for Ben Tate, and Leinart to operate strictly as a "game manager." The Texans' new quarterback lacks fantasy appeal. ... All signs point to Andre Johnson (hamstring) playing extensively against the Jaguars after a full practice week. Johnson is as good a bet as any wideout to lead the NFL in "target rate" (player targets divided by team targets) the rest of the way. The conservative, run-dominated offense may cap Johnson's upside slightly, but I'd guess that when Leinart drops back there will be roughly a 40% chance his throws will be intended for Johnson. With top CB Rashean Mathis on injured reserve, it's hard to imagine the Jaguars keeping Johnson covered. Start 'em.

UPDATE: The Jaguars placed CB Derek Cox on injured reserve with a knee ailment Friday, ending his season. They've now lost both of their starting cornerbacks for the year, making it even more likely that Johnson will be open frequently in Sunday's game.

Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and even Owen Daniels will struggle for consistent production with Johnson back. Daniels will likely spend long stretches on the line blocking, while Jones resumes his situational deep threat job and Walter reverts to seldom-targeted possession wideout. I'd have trouble relying on any of the above as a stretch-run fantasy starter. ... The Jaguars opened the season playing above-average run defense, but it's no longer an intimidating unit after being decimated by injuries. NT Terrance Knighton has a high ankle sprain, LE Matt Roth is coming off a concussion, and WLB Clint Session joined Mathis on I.R. this week. With those players all sidelined last Sunday, Jacksonville allowed Chris Ogbonnaya to rack up 134 yards, a touchdown, and average 5.48 yards per carry. Foster will smoke this defense, and Ben Tate could too if the Texans jump out to an early lead. The latter is a solid bet considering the Jaguars' inept offense.

Remember when Oakland was a fantasy wasteland? Jacksonville has taken its place. "No. 1 receiver" Mike Thomas hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3 and is averaging 14 receiving yards in his last five games. ... Jason Hill might be the worst starting wideout in the league. He had a game-blowing end-zone drop with :03 left against Cleveland in Week 11 and should be on fantasy rosters nowhere. ... Blaine Gabbert turned in his best game of the season against the Browns. Obviously, that's not saying much. He has the poorest pocket presence in football and is a lock to struggle against Houston's No. 1 defense. ... Marcedes Lewis set season highs in receptions (7) and yards (64) against the Browns. He needs to string together at least two more decent games to even be roster-able. ... Maurice Jones-Drew is the Jaguars' lone shining light, somehow maintaining productivity despite an embarrassing supporting cast. Even against the Texans' top-four run defense, MJD is a strong RB2 because he gets the rock 23 times a game.

Score Prediction: Texans 30, Jaguars 7

4:05PM ET Games

Chicago @ Oakland

Caleb Hanie is an intriguing prospect with plus arm strength and athleticism, but his move into the starting lineup in place of a previously red-hot Jay Cutler bodes poorly for Chicago's passing game. Hanie's drawbacks have been accuracy and decision making, so OC Mike Martz will be sure to minimize the new quarterback's impact on games. Martz hasn't been a Hanie supporter from the start, carrying washed-up 39-year-old Todd Collins as Cutler's primary backup -- ahead of Hanie -- throughout last season. Earl Bennett was the lone Bears receiver on the fantasy radar. The beneficiary of a longtime rapport with Cutler, Bennett should be on benches until Hanie proves capable of getting him the football and moving the offense with his arm. Hanie has tried 14 career passes in the regular season, so all bets are off until we see him play at least four full quarters.

Without Cutler through Week 16 at least, coach Lovie Smith has made it clear that the Bears will lean heavily on contract-year tailback Matt Forte during the 5-6 week interim. "Offensively, we’re going to rely on our running game a little bit more," said Smith on Monday. Defenses may stack the box against Chicago going forward, but they were doing that already, and Forte is on pace for career highs in rushing yards (1,482) and yards-per-carry average (4.98) while leading the league in yards from scrimmage. He also has the stretch-run schedule to compensate for any increased defensive attention. Forte's next three games are against the Raiders (No. 25 run defense), Chiefs (28), and Broncos (16). In Week 16 -- fantasy championship week -- Forte will square off with a Packers defense he's averaged 131 total yards against in the clubs' past three meetings.

The Bears are playing the toughest pass defense in football during their five-game winning streak. Over that span, Chicago has limited quarterbacks to 132-of-225 passing (58.7%) for 1,362 yards (6.05 YPA), five touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Opponents have included Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, and a healthy Michael Vick, so the Bears aren't preying on chump passers. Carson Palmer drops from QB1 to clear-cut QB2 because of the forbidding matchup. Oakland's passing game also relies heavily on vertical strikes, plays Smith's Cover-2 zone is precisely designed to stop. ... After rolling his ankle in last week's win over the Vikings, Denarius Moore showed up at the Raiders' facility in a protective boot Wednesday. The injury and mismatch should give fantasy owners plenty of reason to keep Moore on benches for Week 12. There will be better days ahead.

Moore, Jacoby Ford (foot), and Darrius Heyward-Bey (concussion) are all either banged up or out for this game, making it conceivable that the Raiders' three-receiver set against the Bears will be comprised of Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The drop-off in terms of explosiveness would be dramatic. Expect Hue Jackson to unleash Michael Bush for a fourth straight week. While Chicago's No. 10 run-defense ranking looks rough on paper, the Bears are beatable on the ground on a per-play basis. Across the NFL, only the Lions, Saints, and Raiders are allowing a higher yards-per-carry average to opponents than the Bears' 4.94 clip. Averaging 29 touches per game in his last four starts under Jackson, Bush is a legit RB1 in Week 12. ... Kevin Boss may be worth a desperation start due to Oakland's receiver shortage and Chicago's tight end-friendly defense, but he offers very little upside. He's cleared 40 yards once as a Raider.

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Bears 17

Washington @ Seattle

No Redskins running back will be a Week 12 fantasy option against the Seahawks' top-eight run defense, I will take this time anyway to examine Mike Shanahan’s confounding backfield usage. Whereas "backup" Roy Helu has racked up 246 yards on his last 50 carries (4.92 YPC), "starter" Ryan Torain has 67 yards on 36 attempts (1.86 YPC) since his flash-in-the-pan Week 4 game against the Rams. The last rushing touchdown scored against Seattle occurred on October 2, so this is an easy matchup to avoid for such a befuddling backfield. But if the stats are right -- and they usually are -- the Redskins might have been a bit more competitive during their six-game losing streak had Helu been the starting running back, and not Torain. ... Perhaps one positive sign for Helu could be gleaned from Shanahan's comments about newly signed Evan Royster, who spent the season's first 11 weeks on Washington's practice squad. Shanahan praised Royster's improvement in pass protection, a job performed primarily by Helu on game days since Tim Hightower tore his ACL. It's pure speculation, but maybe Royster will be mixed in on passing downs moving forward, with Helu's early-down role expanding at Torain's expense. But that's probably just wishful thinking.

Santana Moss will return from his fractured hand at Seattle, becoming a WR3 candidate to watch for the stretch run. As mentioned previously in this space, Moss led Washington in targets when Rex Grossman was starting early in the season. I'd use this week to monitor Moss, sit him against Darrelle Revis' Jets in Week 13, and perhaps start him versus the Patriots, Giants, and Vikings in the fantasy playoffs. ... Jabar Gaffney's 7-115-1 game in Week 11 is sure to prove a mirage with Moss back. Seattle presents a favorable matchup in terms of pass defense, but Gaffney won't be seeing double-digit targets again anytime soon. ... Moss' return figures to hurt Fred Davis in the long run, but the Redskins' tight end is set up for success in this particular matchup. Over the past three games, Seattle has been dusted for 21 catches, 219 yards, and three touchdowns by tight ends. When re-watching Seahawks games, it often appears as if there is no one left in coverage over the middle from down to down. I would bet on Davis leading the Skins in receiving this week.

The Seahawks square off Sunday with a Redskins defense that leads the NFL in sacks and ranks in the top ten versus the pass. Washington has allowed only 11 TD passes in ten games. Tarvaris Jackson has a 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio since returning from his strained right pectoral four games ago, and his yardage has dropped in four straight weeks. I think the Seahawks can beat the Skins, but not with their passing game. Avoid Doug Baldwin, Big Mike Williams, and Ben Obomanu. Sidney Rice is a dicey WR3, especially after he missed practice time with a knee injury this week. Rice has had knee problems since entering the league. ... I've never been a Marshawn Lynch believer, but he appears to be in the best physical condition of his career, and the volume is hard to argue with. The Seahawks are force feeding him the rock with a league-high 90 touches in his last three games. Washington can be run on, so this isn't a prohibitive matchup. Lynch is a worthy RB2/flex.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 17, Redskins 16

4:15PM ET Games

New England @ Philadelphia

The Patriots present more matchup problems than arguably any NFL team because defenses have to decide whether to double team Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski in a pick-your-poison situation. The Chiefs chose Welker in Week 11, and Gronk promptly lit them up for 96 yards and two scores. In fantasy football, the best option is just to play them both. Philadelphia has struggled to contain slot receivers all season, with Victor Cruz (twice, 6-128-1 and 3-110-2) and Earl Bennett (5-95-1) as the most notable recent culprits. Cardinals and Bills slot receivers Early Doucet and David Nelson have also dropped touchdowns on the Eagles. Expect Welker to face off frequently with Joselio Hanson on Sunday afternoon and rebound from last Monday's clunker. ... Here is Tom Brady's updated target distribution since the Pats' Week 7 bye: Gronkowski 42, Welker 29, Deion Branch 24, Aaron Hernandez 21, Chad Ochocinco 8. With last week's effort, Gronkowski has formally surpassed Jimmy Graham as the 2011 season's most prolific fantasy tight end. Gronkowski is averaging seven catches for 101 yards with five touchdowns in his last four games.

While Branch has found pay dirt at a respectable clip, it's obvious that his separation skills are waning late in his age-32 season. He hasn't cleared 60 yards since Week 6. ... With Nnamdi Asomugha not expected to play after hyperextending his knee in Thursday’s practice, the pass-happy Patriots figure to attack with a throw-first game plan. This would bode well for Tom Brady, Gronkowski, and Welker, but poorly for New England's crapshoot of a backfield. While most likely a fluke, it is perhaps notable that Philadelphia has picked it up in run defense lately. The Eagles have held opposing feature backs Brandon Jacobs and Beanie Wells without a touchdown and to a combined 83 yards on 35 carries (2.37 YPC) in their last two games. Philly should be considered a favorable matchup for ground attacks going forward, but this recent surge combined with the unpredictability of usage amongst Patriots rushers should make for an easy tiebreaker when it comes to fantasy lineup decisions. If New England does go pass-heavy, Danny Woodhead and Kevin Faulk could easily wind up getting the ball more than BenJarvus Green-Ellis. ... Overtaken by Gronkowski as the Pats' go-to tight end, Aaron Hernandez has been in a bit of a rut with no touchdowns and a 43-yard average in his last two games. He was in the midst of a three-week scoring streak before the mini slump. Hernandez is a low-end TE1 in this game, but he's certainly still a fantasy starter.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has built a reputation for taking away opponents' best players. It will be interesting to see if he can do it with LeSean McCoy. In McCoy's four matchups with top-11 run defenses this season, he's racked up six touchdowns while averaging 5.05 yards per carry and over 120 total yards a game. The Pats are 12th against the run. ... In Week 11, Vince Young connected with Brent Celek on each of his six targets to the tight end for 60 yards. It's probably a good weekly expectation as long as V.Y. is under center. ... Eagles slot receiver Jason Avant was a total non-factor, though. Young only targeted Avant twice, executing once for 13 yards. … Philadelphia is dealing with several injury situations at wide receiver that may not be settled until Sunday. It's a shoulder and hamstring for Jeremy Maclin and a foot for DeSean Jackson. The bottom line is this: Regardless of whether it's Maclin, Jackson, or Riley Cooper, if an Eagles wideout is starting in this game, he will be a strong fantasy play. The expectation as this column was being written was that Cooper would start in Maclin's place, and D-Jax is just fine.

Even after Tyler Palko's abominable Week 11 game in Foxboro, the Patriots still have the league's last ranked pass defense. That's how bad they are. V.Y. settled in following a miserable beginning to his own Week 11 game, completing 19 of his final 24 passes (79.2%) for 250 yards (10.42 YPC), and two touchdowns after throwing two picks and generating just three points on his first six possessions. And Young only rushed for five yards throughout the course of the game, so there's sure to be more where that comes from. Young isn't a top-five or even six quarterback play in Week 12, but he certainly has the potential to produce like one. He has a lot of upside in this matchup. It's quite likely that the Pats will be more willing to let Young beat them than McCoy.

Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Eagles 23

Denver @ San Diego

Per the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Chargers have played from behind for 169:21 of 240 minutes over their last four games. They've led for a pathetic 20:30 during that span, and all of the time leading has come in first quarters. While this is more hindsight than predictive analysis, it goes a long way toward explaining many of San Diego's statistical results during the past month. Philip Rivers has averaged nearly 42 pass attempts per game. Mike Tolbert has essentially been the feature back. San Diego is 0-4. ... You will probably be right more often than wrong when you bet on Vincent Jackson's talent each week, but he's got a long, documented history of struggling in Champ Bailey's coverage. Here are V-Jax's stat lines from his last seven meetings with Denver: 3-34, 3-53, 4-56, 4-46-1, 2-47, 6-73, 4-46. It's an average of 51 yards, with one touchdown. In the league I own Jackson, I am sitting him for Victor Cruz. ... Norv Turner has ruled out Malcom Floyd (hip), meaning Vincent Brown will continue to start. If you are starting Brown, you are basically betting that the opposition will shut down V-Jax. Constant Raiders double teams took Jackson out of the Week 10 game, and Brown went off for 97 yards and a TD on five receptions. With V-Jax destroying Chicago's defensive backs en route to last week's 7-165-1 line, Brown finished with an eight-yard catch. Considering Jackson's background versus Bailey, Brown isn't that bad of a bet.

The Chargers' O-Line is in shambles, which can't bode well for Rivers against Denver's red-hot pass rush. Edge rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil have combined for eight sacks over the last four games. Of San Diego's first-team front five, only RT Jeromey Clary and C Nick Hardwick are left standing after injuries knocked out LT Marcus McNeill (back), RG Louis Vasquez (ankle), LG Kris Dielman (concussion), G/C Scott Mruczkowski (concussion), and G/T Tyronne Green (hand). The sunny San Diego setting and Broncos' No. 21 pass-defense ranking might work in Rivers' favor, but it's going to be a bumpy, potentially interception-filled ride. Rivers already leads the NFL with 23 turnovers. ... Antonio Gates returned from his foot injury five weeks ago, and over that span is the No. 2 fantasy tight end behind only Rob Gronkowski. When in the lineup, he's easily been San Diego's most reliable, consistent pass catcher. ... Ryan Mathews' injuries and lack of recent productivity have gotten to him to the point where he'll be difficult to trust even as a mere flex in what should have been a favorable matchup. His playing time already down in favor of Tolbert, Mathews has not found pay dirt since Week 3. He'll be a game-time decision in a game with a late start. It's a bad situation. ... We will have updates Friday as to whether Mathews will play. If he doesn't, Tolbert would be a 20-touch candidate against Denver's No. 16 run defense.

Tim Tebow has faced San Diego twice in his now two-year career, racking up 284 passing yards, five all-purpose scores, and 132 more yards on the ground in one start and one brief relief appearance. The Chargers' run defense has struggled all season, and the pass defense has tanked recently, too. Over its last three games, San Diego has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 53-of-77 passes (68.8%) for 832 yards (10.81 YPA) with an 8:2 TD-to-INT ratio. For Tebow, this is a prime matchup any way you slice it. ... Here is Tebow's updated target distribution for the year: Eric Decker 30, Eddie Royal 28, Demaryius Thomas 21, Matt Willis 8, Daniel Fells 8. ... Decker was held catch-less in Week 11, ending his three-game touchdown streak. He's the only viable Denver receiver in fantasy leagues, but carries major week-to-week risk. ... Willis McGahee will resume feature back duties after running tentatively on a sore hamstring in last Thursday night's win over the Jets. McGahee's legs have benefited from the ten-day layoff, as he's resumed practicing fully and the hamstring is not even listed on Denver's Week 12 injury report. Expect a rebound game. The Chargers rank 22nd versus the run and allow a healthy 4.36 yards per carry.

Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Chargers 20

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City

The Chiefs are expected to give Tyler Palko one more start, which means the Steelers will be this week's best fantasy defense play. Not only will Palko be without elite pass-blocking LG Ryan Lilja (concussion), he is a miserable quarterback with his supporting cast at full health. Showing weak velocity and maddening decision-making skills in last Monday night's blowout loss to the Patriots, Palko threw three picks and didn't lead a touchdown drive against the NFL's worst pass defense. On the turn, Palko gets Pittsburgh's No. 3 pass defense, a unit that is fresh and at near-full strength after a Week 11 bye. It's a nightmare matchup for Kansas City's passing game. Kyle Orton will be the Chiefs' starter in Week 13. ... Look for Dwayne Bowe to be shadowed all over the field by Ike Taylor on Sunday night. Per Pro Football Focus, Taylor has permitted just 20 of the 58 passes thrown in his direction to be completed this season (34.5%) for 211 yards (3.64 YPA). Taylor has allowed one touchdown all year. Taylor is the kind of cornerback well suited to defend Bowe because he's 6-foot-2, 195 and incredibly physical. Feel free to use the "Don't Sit Your Studs" mantra, but there are too many factors working against Bowe for Week 12 fantasy comfort.

Pass-heavy comeback mode could rescue Steve Breaston like it did last week, but I wouldn't bank on it. Palko will be under much heavier duress than he was in Foxboro. Even if Palko approaches 40 attempts again, I'd bet against him surpassing 200 yards. ... Jonathan Baldwin caught three balls for 16 yards from Palko against the Patriots. He's comfortably bench material until Orton learns the offense. ... The Steelers are dismantling running games lately, holding Cedric Benson, Ray Rice, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Beanie Wells to a combined 151 yards on 50 carries (3.02 YPC) in their last four games. Only Rice has found pay dirt. Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones, and Dexter McCluster shared the Chiefs' backfield equally in Week 11, creating a complete fantasy quagmire. Avoid. ... PPR owners could try betting that McCluster racks up receptions after Kansas City falls victim to a large, early deficit, but that didn't work out so well with Palko last week. McCluster finished with one reception for three yards. Stone-handed Battle had as many catches.

In order to minimize the risk of Ben Roethlisberger aggravating his right thumb injury, the Steelers practiced in shotgun formations all week. This could actually help Roethlisberger's fantasy value. Pittsburgh runs a pass-happy spread offense from the 'gun, and Big Ben played through the same injury when the Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2005. Kansas City has allowed the fifth most passing touchdowns in football and has the NFL's fewest sacks. ... Roethlisberger's thumb issue has the potential to work either way for Rashard Mendenhall. A shotgun-heavy spread could lead to more snaps for passing-down specialist Isaac Redman and fewer rushing attempts overall. The injury could also give Pittsburgh an incentive to run the football more. We just won't know until the game is played. With four touchdowns and a rock-solid 4.41 YPC average over the last five weeks, Mendenhall's performance has been much less of a problem than his usage. Still a good bet to score, Mendenhall makes for a strong RB2 against Kansas City's No. 28 run defense.

The Steelers' outside wideouts move around the formation enough that both Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace will see time against LCB Brandon Flowers and RCB Brandon Carr. Flowers is the Chiefs' top corner, while Carr is more susceptible to surrendering large chunks of yardage. On the majority of snaps, however, it will be Wallace versus Flowers and Brown on Carr. While Wallace is the No. 4 overall fantasy receiver in points per game and can never be benched, Brown has a superior Week 12 matchup. ... Emmanuel Sanders will return this week to take snaps away from Jerricho Cotchery and Hines Ward in the slot. Until one of those three emerges as a consistent contributor -- and it may not happen at all -- they're all unusable in fantasy leagues. ... Entering Pittsburgh's Week 11 bye, Heath Miller's yardage had dropped in three straight games. In terms of targets, Miller ranks 18th among tight ends. It's conceivable that Miller could spend a lot of this game helping LT Max Starks and RT Marcus Gilbert block Chiefs OLB Tamba Hali.

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Chiefs 0

Monday Night Football

NY Giants @ New Orleans

Among Week 12's post-Thanksgiving games, this one has the highest over/under at 51 points. Superdome is the venue -- always a plus for passing -- and each team has a top-five passing offense. It's a nice fantasy setup, unless you own either team's defense. ... The last time the Saints and Giants met was in October of 2009. Drew Brees carved up the G-Men for 369 yards and four touchdowns on 23-of-30 passing (76.7%). Brees' more than two-year-old stats aren't necessarily indicative of future performance, but New York's overall scheme and defensive personnel haven't changed much. The Giants still rely heavily on sack production, and few NFL signal callers are tougher to sack. ... Prior to the Saints' Week 11 bye, Marques Colston burned Atlanta for 113 yards on eight receptions. Colston plays the majority of his snaps at slot receiver, and Giants No. 1 cornerback Corey Webster probably won't follow him inside. ... Lance Moore is coming off a one-catch, 28-yard game and has played just 42.3% of New Orleans' offensive downs over the last month. One of the few Saints that should be benched in this game, Moore's playing time and targets are too inconsistent and game-plan based for fantasy confidence.

The Giants are getting blown to smithereens by tight ends, and perhaps the scariest part is that they haven't yet faced a player at the position with quite as much talent as Jimmy Graham. In their last three games, the G-Men have allowed 28 receptions for 311 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends. It's a ridiculous, nine-catch, 104-yard weekly average. ... New York still can't get its run defense on track, in Week 11 allowing 113 yards on 23 carries (4.91 YPC) to LeSean McCoy. While New Orleans' backfield has been something of a fantasy headache whenever all members are healthy, Darren Sproles has been the most consistent contributor, particularly in high-scoring affairs like this game projects. When the Saints have scored 30 or more points (five-game sample), Sproles has five touchdowns and is averaging 85 total yards a game. He'll remain the Saints' best fantasy running back until proven otherwise. ... Mark Ingram is officially back healthy, rendering Pierre Thomas a between-the-twenties player only. A changing of the guard is possible after New Orleans' off week, but Ingram and Thomas should be on fantasy benches until we see it. If you're choosing between the two, Ingram is probably a better bet for a rushing touchdown.

The Saints' defensive strength is secondary play, particularly at left cornerback with Jabari Greer. Greer doesn't follow No. 1 wideouts around the formation, but is playing at borderline shutdown levels staying on the left. In the Giants' three-wide sets, Mario Manningham lines up across from opposing LCBs, with Victor Cruz in the slot and Hakeem Nicks at split end. Cruz and Nicks have far better matchups than Manningham this week, squaring off with slot CB Tracy Porter and RCB Patrick Robinson, respectively. ... If the coverage matchups aren't enough to get you to start Cruz and Nicks, the target trends should be. Behind Nicks, here is Eli Manning's target distribution over the last month: Cruz 41, Manningham 28, Jake Ballard 25. There is no question that Cruz has overtaken Manningham as Manning's No. 2 option in the passing game. Start 'em. ... Manningham was unable to participate in late-week practices due to persistent knee swelling, and reporters observed him getting around "gingerly" at the Giants' facility on Friday. Manningham has a poor matchup, isn't healthy, and may not even play on Monday night. He's an easy sit.

Nicks is mired in a midseason slump, but look for him to bust out of it on Monday night. He has an elite matchup in a projected shootout. It's an excellent fantasy formula. ... The potentially year-ending injury to Giants LT William Beatty doesn't bode well for oversized TE Jake Ballard. Ballard may become more valuable to the G-Men as an in-line blocker, with Manningham or Ramses Barden taking the targets Ballard leaves behind. ... Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to miss another week with a cracked foot and has no timetable to return. Brandon Jacobs is coming off an awful game against Philly, but remains the Giants' clear-cut lead back over Da'Rel Scott and D.J. Ware. The Saints have been quietly awful in run defense all season, allowing a league-high 5.19 yards per carry. Assuming New York doesn't fall behind quickly and stays competitive for all four quarters, Jacobs should not struggle to flirt with 80-90 rushing yards. He'll also be a good bet to score.