53-39 In The 20th: Siena Poll (Updated With Tabs)

U.S. Rep. John Sweeney, R-Clifton Park, has a 14-point lead (53-39) over his Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand in the 20th CD, down from 19 points (53-34) in August, according to today’s Siena Poll.

“While Gillibrand has cut Sweeney’s 19-point August lead by five points, Sweeney has a strong 14-point lead with three weeks to go until Election Day,” said Siena poll spokesman Steven Greenberg. “Given the commanding Republican enrollment advantage in the 20th Congressional District, it will be difficult – but certainly not impossible – for Gillibrand to close the gap in the remaining time before voters go to the pollls.”

Sweeney is still ahead in every part of the district – Southern, Capital Region, North Country – but his leads have erroded slightly. Her biggest gains have come, surprisingly (to me anyway) in the northern region and Albany area, and not in the South, which is her home turf. Â

He’s way out in front with Republicans (77-17) and has the edge with the all-importantÂ independents (46-40), while Gillibrand is leading among Democrats (73-21). More than 80 percent of voters say they’re not going to change their minds.

Sweeney also continues to have wide leads when voters were asked which candidate would do a better job on the issues of crime, homeland security, Iraq and taxes. He and Gillibrand are in a statistical dead heat when it comes to education and healthcare.

In addition, most voters (53-33) think Sweeney would do “a better job overall”

Sweeney’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 49-35 with 16 percent having no opinion, that’s compared to 56-29-15 inÂ August. For Gillibrand, it’s 33-34 with 32 percent having no opinion, compared to 27-17-56 in August.