Hurricane OPHELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE EYE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME WARMER
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL STAYING DEEP. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM 102-112 KT...SO
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME VALUES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE
THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING
WATER TEMPERATURES. AFTER DAY 2...A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD WATERS
AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING OF OPHELIA AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A BAROCLINIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
OPHELIA IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS BECOME STRONGER BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING OPHELIA COMING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST BEYOND 36 HOURS. FUTURE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT HAVE
TO BE MADE BECAUSE THE NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 26.2N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 32.4N 62.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 37.2N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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