A Torontonian's ramblings on politics with especial attention to the local.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Unsuper Saturday

If you thought Super Tuesday was the end of the primary process, you were wrong. Three more states weighed in for each party yesterday. The Democratic race was predictable. Barack Obama easily won the two caucuses (NE, WA) and took the lone primary (LA). The most impressive of the wins may be Washington. The state of Washington is a traditional Democratic stronghold. Obama was criticized after Super Tuesday for mainly winning in red states, winning in both the red states of Nebraska and Louisiana and also the blue state, Washington, gives him more credibility going into three more blue states (well two states and a district) over the next three days (ME, MD, DC). The Clinton camp is spinning this as an expected defeat, but she can't be happy about the margins. Losing by 20 points in the Louisiana primary has got to be particularly disconcerting. We aren't any closer to determining who the nominee is, but momentum (which has meant nothing in this race) is back with Obama. Maine votes today in a caucus. Obama has lost only won caucus in this entire race (NV). Look for the momentum to continue.

The Republican race was much more surprising. The presumptive front runner, John McCain, was able to eke out only won victory yesterday (WA). Mike Huckabee took the Kansas Caucus by a wide margin and then eked out a victory in Louisiana. Now, Huckabee's victory and Louisiana and McCain's in Washington are of indeterminate worth. Louisiana would have been winner take all if any of the candidates had garnered 50% but the Paul campaign and the remnants of the Romney campaign made that impossible. Thus, Louisiana's delegates are uncommitted. Washington's delegate selection process is long and arduous. The caucuses are merely the first step in determining delegates. The end of this process is the end of May. Overall, the day's results can be seen as giant screw you to John McCain. Does it throw his nomination into question? Not really. Does it show he has miles to go before he wins over the Conservative base? Absolutely. John McCain, no matter how popular he is with independents, cannot win the presidency without the Republican base. If they stay home in November, it will be a Democratic landslide.