Monday, November 07, 2005

Dithers No More

Well, that was actually fairly quick - and probably smart of Jack to wait until Monday so that he could control the news cycle.

Ladies and gentlemen, we could very well be into an election campaign in 9 days time. The ball is now in Harper's court - I'll have more on this tonight, but baring a drop in the polling numbers for the CPC over the next week, it might very well be game on (although I can see the logic behind waiting until later this month to pull the plug).

UPDATE: Harper, obviously feeling burned by last spring, has said he won't introduce a non-confidence motion but, as Andrew Spicer points out in the comments bellow, Harper has said he might give Layton his November 15th opposition day (huh?). I have no idea if he's allowed to do this but, if this Parliament has been going for anything, it has been to put obscure parliamentary procedural rules into the limelight. If they work out some sort of deal, the government would fall on the 15th - otherwise, I believe the NDP opposition day is scheduled for the 24th. Mind you, as we've seen before, Tony Valeri might have some fun with the calendar, or the polls might improve for the Liberals causing the opposition to back down.

Layton's words:"And we cannot express confidence in a government that under the leadership -- it is under the leadership of a party that cannot be trusted to clean up the politics that it tainted....Therefore, this parliament's life is likely limited. Limited not by the choice of any Opposition party, but by the unethical behaviour of the Liberal party."

Harper's motion: "Recognizing the unethical behaviour of the Liberal Party, this House does not have confidence in the government to clean up the politics that it tainted."

Last time I heard the NDP opposition day is scheduled for November 24th - I'd circle that day on the calendar since it looks like Harper isn't gutsy enough to march in and do the deed himself next week.

Greg: The NDP has lost confidence that this government will protect the exclusively public nature of the health care system.

Harper would almost certainly vote for that. The only thing that matters is the fact that it's a non-confidence vote; the health care justification is completely meaningless.

Mike: Harper is a coward. He knows that the party that does pull the plug at Christmass will take a hit during the election. So does everyone else.

You couldn't be more wrong. Who caused the election will be an issue for the first two days of the writ at most, and then be completely forgotten.

I think we're also losing sight of the fact that without NDP support, there's no guarantee that the motion would pass. Harper would need the support of at least two of the independents, and that's assuming Stinson and Chatters can make the vote. If he pushes a vote and it fails, it would be a significant hit to the CPC polling numbers and Harper's personal credibility.