BUSINESS

Find eclectic, tropical gifts
at The Beach Hut

Anna Maria Island is nothing if not eclectic. The more Christine
Tilelli and her three sons visited her parents in Holmes Beach,
the more they enjoyed the diversity and slightly off beat vibes
on the Island. In 2007 they decided to move permanently to Anna
Maria and Tilelli started looking for a small business to purchase.

It took a while but eventually Christine Tilelli found just the
right fit for her personality and her family. In September of last
year, she purchased The Garden Hut, a popular shop in Holmes Beach
for garden accessories, and with the help of her mother, Valerie
Tilelli, reinvented it into The Beach Hut. They added more tropical
home décor items while still retaining many of the garden accessories.

The Beach Hut still carries a lot of the same island’s favorites
like wind chimes, garden stakes and stepping stones, candles, jewelry,
bird houses and Geeky Beeks. But now you can also find more decorative
wall hangings, frames, greeting cards, shells and sand dollars.
The Beach Hut also has a large assortment of Plush Pets, which
are exclusive on the Island, and has added a beautiful and colorful
line of individually made hand painted pottery wall décor and decorative
ornaments. The shop is a great place to find just the right house
gift or souvenir of your Island vacation.

In addition, you can still find at The Beach Hut CRP Adirondack
chairs, which they claim last forever and come in practically every
color in the rainbow. Tilelli says once you own one you will never
buy another lawn chair, and dares you to pick the one on her front
deck which is seven years old. You can purchase the chairs and
assemble them yourself or The Beach Hut will have them assembled
for you.

Tilelli calls herself an Army brat, speaks three languages and
has lived in a variety of countries. Her travels have exposed her
to a range of cultures and experiences which has provided her with
an eye for the unique. She is always bringing something new into
the shop with inventory changing weekly.

Tilelli hopes The Beach Hut will be a place where both visitors
and residents will find just the right little item to bring a smile
to their face. Eclectic, tropical, beachy or practical, The Beach
Hut has it all under one roof.

The Beach Hut

Bear market rally or new bull market?

Investment Corner By Tom Brieter

A great debate is raging over the recent 30 to 40 percent rally
in most major stock indexes since the lows set back in March. Those
who are pessimistic maintain that the recent rise in stock prices
is doomed to reverse course soon and that prices will decline again,
perhaps to levels even lower than before. This scenario is called
a bear market rally – an unsustainable rise in prices contained
within a larger downward trend.

Those more optimistic believe that, eventually, after major declines,
new bull markets are born which may last several years. The recent
dramatic rise in stock prices, albeit after a very severe decline,
already qualifies as a new bull market since it has risen in excess
of 20 percent from the lows of early March.

As you might have guessed, a lot of this is semantics and opinion,
with the ultimate assessment of who is right only taking place
when hindsight becomes the final arbitrator. If I say this is a
new bull market since it has risen more than 20percent from the
low point, I am right under the textbook definition. Those in the
bear camp would say we can’t prove it’s a new bull market until
a new high is set for the major indexes. The problem is that waiting
to invest until that happens means you will have missed a 100 percent
rise in prices (the recovery required to get back to new highs
after a 50 percent decline like we sustained from the fall of 2007
to the spring of 2009).

My opinions aren’t right much more often than anyone else, so
we rely on a set of quantitative rules to make adjustments and
attempt to control risk in our clients’ accounts at my firm. Since
April 7, that set of rules is giving a positive signal for stock
prices. That doesn’t mean that further gains are guaranteed, but
we believe there is a good chance for further gains over the remainder
of 2009. We expect corrections along the way, and there is always
the possibility our model may give a sell signal, causing us to
change our outlook and portfolio allocations.

I think you have to be a little cautious if you are of the opinion
that stock prices will decline substantially looking out over the
next several years. It certainly could happen, but after major
declines, there is more history of recovery than of continued turmoil.
Being bearish also requires that you face the headwinds of history.
The facts are simple – in the long-run, stock prices have always
risen despite periodic declines, some of which are severe. Unless
you believe our economic system has fundamentally changed and will
never be productive again, you should acknowledge that the next
decade has a reasonably good chance to provide positive returns.

My reasons for thinking we have started a new, potentially lasting
rise for stock prices is based on our indicators as well as a qualitative
assessment. The decline in stock prices in 2008 was directly linked
to the credit crisis impacting the sub-prime mortgage and corporate
bond markets. These credit markets have been rising in dramatic
fashion, like stocks, and I believe as long as we continue to see
improvement in the corporate credit markets, we can see a further
rise in stock prices.

As always, my opinion or anyone else’s may be wrong, or events
may transpire in the future that make us reassess our view. Smart
portfolio management involves taking acceptable risks for your
personal situation. One of the most successful fund managers I
know, Jean-Marie Eveillard, of the First Eagle Funds, makes every
investment decision with one main thought in mind, "The future
is uncertain." Just when we think we have it all figured out,
whether bullish or bearish, it’s probably going to change soon,
and we need to be ready.

Tom Breiter is president of Breiter Capital Management, Inc., an Anna Maria based investment advisor. He can be reached at 778-1900. Some of the investment concepts highlighted in this column may carry the risk of loss of principal, and investors should determine appropriateness for their personal situation before investing.