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2014 (continued)

"The governance challenge stems from the fact that cyberspace is a combination of virtual properties, which defy geographical boundaries, and physical infrastructure, which fall under sovereign jurisdictions. Control of the physical layer can have both territorial and extraterritorial effects on the virtual layers. At the same time, attacks can be launched from the low-cost virtual realm against the physical domain, where resources are scarce and expensive."

By Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor and Kevin Rudd, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

"...[T]he best we can aim for is to revive the wisdom of the original Zhou-Tanaka formula. One way of doing this, as some have suggested, might be to declare the islands a maritime ecological preserve dedicated to the larger good of the region. There would be no habitation and no military use of the islands or the surrounding seas. Ideally, China and Japan would agree, but that may be unlikely in the current climate. Other mechanisms could be explored to produce the same end."

"...Obama's declaration that Russia is a regional power acting out of weakness, no less than Russia's suspension from the G-8, may have hit Putin where he is most vulnerable. His actions in Ukraine have undoubtedly brought Russia tangible gains in the short term. But they also imply less obvious costs. It remains to be seen whether Putin's bold move was worth it."

"But historical analogies, though sometimes useful for precautionary purposes, become dangerous when they convey a sense of historical inevitability. WWI was not inevitable. It was made more probable by Germany's rising power and the fear that this created in Great Britain. But it was also made more probable by Germany's fearful response to Russia's rising power, as well as myriad other factors, including human errors. But the gap in overall power between the US and China today is greater than that between Germany and Britain in 1914."

2013

"The WEF's Global Agenda Council on the Future of Government...has considered ways in which information technology can improve governance and reduce feelings of alienation among the governed. The most effective initiatives, the council observed, often arise from partnerships between government and the private sector."

"A quick resolution of the Senkaku Islands dispute, or of Japan's lower-profile conflict with South Korea over the Korean-controlled Liancourt Rocks, is improbable, but Japan could be more proactive. For example, by stating their willingness to take any territorial disputes to the International Court of Justice, Japanese authorities could help to dispel perceptions of militarism."

"Rather than being critical of Kennedy for not living up to his rhetoric, we should be grateful that in critical situations, he was prudent and transactional rather than ideological and transformational. The most important achievement of Kennedy's brief presidency was to manage the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and defuse what was probably the riskiest episode since the dawn of the nuclear age."

"Cyber war and cyber espionage are largely associated with states, while cyber crime and cyber terrorism are mostly associated with non-state actors. The highest costs currently stem from espionage and crime; but, over the next decade or so, cyber war and cyber terrorism may become greater threats than they are today. Moreover, as alliances and tactics evolve, the categories may increasingly overlap. Terrorists might buy malware from criminals, and governments might find it useful to hide behind both."

"The big problem in foreign policy is the complexity of context. One has to understand not only international and transnational systems but also the intricacies of domestic politics in multiple societies. This complexity gives special relevance to Aristotle's virtue of prudence — avoiding excess or deficiency. We live in a world of diverse cultures and know very little about social engineering and how to 'build nations.' That is particularly true with regard to revolutions."

"As for the perceived loss of America's much-vaunted superpower status, we simply need to come to terms with the changing reality of international relations, and accept that the United States will have to work with others to achieve its global aims. The changes of a global information age mean that even the world's only superpower can't go it alone."

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