Oh hai Laois
Monaghan looked, at least in the early going, like they were capable of bucking the odds. The Farney army were 9 point underdogs going in but did everything necessary for the opening quarter to stay in the conversation. They matched Dublin shot for shot, which is pretty much as important as staying in touch on the scoreboard with Jim Gavin’s side. High volume is Dublin’s game, if you stop them stretching out on that front, you keep the game competitive. Monaghan weren’t converting all that well but they were putting together as many chances. They pursued turnovers aggressively albeit with only one ending in a shot and were quick to go for their score. This bore a strong resemblance to how Laois played Dublin in June, although the O’Moore Men managed to keep it together longer. That aspect however could be over-analysed as Dublin happened to strike gold earlier in this encounter.Timing affects the tone
On the whole, Dublin scored goals at roughly the same conversion rate with which they usually do. The timing of Dublin’s opening two majors, with no missed goal shots before them, accelerated Monaghan’s doom. Dublin went from having taken one shot few than Monaghan to stopping the Farney men from shooting for 9 minutes while racking up 2-1 in the interim. That was a double-barreled blow for the Farney men. Had Dublin merely silenced them, there would still have been cause for hope, but they managed to go two for two from goal chances in that spell and the game was in the bag by half-time.

Monaghan succeeded in slowing Dublin’s pace by limiting them to 19 shots in the first half, still far above the championships average pace, but there was little they could do about what Dublin scored with those 19 shots. It was always likely Dublin would find the net at least twice in this game, they usually have around 7 or 8 shots on goal with 2 going in, but the timing meant this game became a farce quickly. So let’s try and look for positives in the subsequent 35 minutes.

Far from outstanding
I mean that in both senses. Monaghan were neither exceptionally successful nor woeful against Dublin. Their 11 of 27 display shooting was below par in terms over conversion rate but not far off what should be expected of a Dublin opponent at this stage. Wexford (13/27) and Meath (13/26) shot better but still received merciless drubbings. The Slaneysiders are probably the best indicator of all of Dublin’s opponents of how far Gavin’s side are of the concept of average. It was an almost perfectly middle of the road performance from Wexford, pretty much bang on the averages, and Dublin won by 16 points. Indeed Dublin’s winning margin has, on average, been 15 points across the summer. While the standard of opposition should, at least in theory, be rising at this stage Dublin’s mode of attack is showing how far away they are from average.

We’re getting into silly territory
Dublin have averaged 28.75 points per game and an average winning marging of 15 points through four games. Since the qualifier era began, the only team to be close to that pace through this stage of the championship is last year’s Mayo team which had 26 points per game (they finished on 23.3 ppg). Dublin have steamrolled past that and, defensively, they remain a force. They are keeping opponents at average or below average shooting, and Saturday’s clash showed what happens when historically good attacking play is paired with an effective defence. Dublin shot 24 of 44 from the field, they had only 3 fewer scores than Monaghan had shots.

The verdict
This is a short enough piece because there really isn’t anything to say that isn’t a retread of what’s already been said. Jimmy may still be winning matches but there’s no plausible way Donegal are even competitive on 31 August. Donegal shoot at a low volume and low conversion rate, they don’t have the bench depth Dublin enjoy, and frankly lack the speed of Gavin’s side. McGuinness, given a deeper pool, is probably best placed of any manager to find a way to beat Dublin but as I said straight after the game, Dublin should be double digit favourites.

]]>http://action81.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=78683Tactics not Passion: Mayo 1-19 Cork 2-15http://action81.com/blog/?p=7865
http://action81.com/blog/?p=7865#commentsMon, 04 Aug 2014 14:41:43 +0000Emmet Ryanhttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7865Mayo beat Cork in what was, purely from a geeky perspective, one of the strangest games this column has ever covered. Emmet Ryan looks to explaining how Cork bucked a big trend and nearly pulled off an upset.

Mayo shot really well
The common complaint around Mayo, going back three years now, is their lack of an ‘elite’ scoring forward. Accurate or not regarding any of Mayo’s individual forwards, and I lean towards the latter, there simply can’t be any question that collectively James Horan’s side has an elite attack. The only team that matches up to Mayo over the last three seasons is Dublin (if we’re looking at a single season, Donegal in 2012 as well). On Sunday, Mayo delivered the type of performance pretty much expected at this stage. James Horan’s side took 38 shots, a solid 11 higher than the national average over 70 minutes, and converted 20 of them for a 53 per cent conversion rate. Given the normal conversion rate is closer to 50 per cent, and it is rare to see inter county teams of any level stray far* from this on a consistent basis, the combination of a heap of shots and a solid return meant that they put up a clearly elite attacking display.
It’s easy to get caught up in bad misses when a team is taking an inordinately high number of shots. It comes down to runs. If you flip a coin 100 times, you know it won’t go heads-tails-heads-tails the whole way. Shooting in Gaelic Football has far more variables than a coin toss, as head and the tail are actively opposing one another. This leads to more streaks in shooting, both positive and negative, but the game is won on what collectively happens over 70 minutes. Mayo, on that basis, had a great game in attack.

*Donegal in 2012 are the only team who managed to maintain a substantially above average conversion rate since I started this column in 2010, getting close to 60 per cent on the summer, and the far more accurate DontFoul tends to back this up. You should also read his site because it’s great.

Cork had two horrible spells…
…although that’s only if we count half-time as a break between spells because really it was the middle of the game where the Rebels made a mess of this one. Mayo closed the first half with 13 shots to Cork’s 6. The Connacht champions opened the second half with 9 shots to Cork’s 3. Collectively, over a spell of 33 minutes excluding stoppage time, up to the 50th minute of the game, Mayo had 21 scoring chances to Cork’s 9. So had did Cork stay in this?

About those streaks
Cork had a few things go terribly right for them. Much as they had a fallow period shooting, they were at their most accurate either side of it. Cork, despite struggling to create chances during a period that spanned nearly half the game, actually had a brilliant day overall in attack. The Rebels created an above average 30 shots and converted 17 of them, that 57 per cent conversion percentage looks better when you look at Cork’s scoring total. With 2-15 from 30 shots, Cork averaged a gaudy 0.7 points per shot. That type of performance, even with Cork’s dry spell will win most games. What makes it odd that Cork were close is that it’s extremely rare, even accounting for goals, for a team with 8 few shots than their opponent to win a game. Even an advantage of a single shot, which you think would be easy to discount, tends to be a strong indicator of victory.

Of course we really should talk about defending
It was where Mayo were weak that made this game close and, for the viewer, quite exciting. Mayo were great at defending everywhere beyond their own 20 metre line. Their last line defence however has been a big gap this season. Fundamentally it’s down to a change in strategy, Horan isn’t focusing on getting bodies back inside the 20 with the same intent as the previous two seasons. Earlier in the year this looked like it could be down to fatigue but as the season has progressed it’s clear that Horan is trying to play a much higher game than in the previous two seasons. The problem is that Mayo’s full back line hasn’t changed substantially in terms of personnel and Ger Cafferkey is a black hole in one-on-one situations. This gave Cork’s beefy full-forward line, any unit where Colm O’Neill looks small isn’t lacking muscle, room to create extremely high percentage chances at close range.

In simple terms, it was a perfect storm for a bizarre and entertaining clash. Mayo forced turnovers at will, including 9 inside of Cork’s 65, when away from the danger zone but struggled mightily close to their own uprights. Cork nearly took sufficient advantage of this weakness but fell short of the perfection needed to do so.

The verdict
Cork proved one thing on Sunday and that’s their abundance of raw natural talent. Rigidity however remains their biggest failing. While substantially improved from their Munster final display, the Rebels still took too long to adapt when Mayo stepped up a gear in the middle of the game. That Mayo didn’t close it out was more to do with Cork’s own attacking strength than any failing on the part of Horan’s charges.

This could be the first of three straight fascinating match-ups for Mayo. The winning and losing of their semi-final with Kerry will probably have more to do with what goes on away from James O’Donoghue than what the Kingdom’s marksman does. Mayo’s biggest weak spot may be in last line defence but it’s a sacrifice they make willingly. I fully expect O’Donoghue to score a ton in the semi-final, whether Kerry win or lose. How Mayo adapt to Kerry’s outside shooting will likely play a much bigger role in deciding who makes it to September. Should Mayo win, and I’m not teasing I still haven’t made a call, they present the one type of attack that could trouble in the final.

This was as slaughter and one that went awfully by the book. Emmet Ryan looks back on Dublin’s win over Meath in Croke Park on Sunday.

We really have to start with it…
It was the key point in my preview (paywalled), it has been the key argument with every Dublin game going back to last year, and it’s only getting crazier. Dublin have been running up insane advantages in the shot count column, in spite of a certain national broadcaster’s inability to count, and broke the 40 mark again with room to spare. Having put up 45 shots against Wexford, Dublin managed to take 46 shots against Meath on Sunday. A 50 per cent conversion rate is bang on average, and most teams stay awfully close to it, but it’s the quantity that really matters here. By half-time Dublin had 27 shots, that’s the national average for 70 mins and one more than Meath managed in the whole game. This is a great team taking analytics and utlising them in the most brutal fashion possible.

This also explains Dublin taking so many shots on goal, which has been a running debate given their tendency to take several early when it may seem more sensible to play cautiously. Jim Gavin may refer to his players by name but he uses them like assets. He has a plan, he wants it executed a certain way, and that includes taking enough shots on goal to ensure Dublin get several majors per game. It may sound like back of the napkin stuff but if Dublin score once from every four shots on goal, they are getting sufficient value (0.75 points per attempt vs 0.5 for attempts at points).

What Meath were trying to do
The order with which Dublin scored, I’ll explain what I mean later, had an impact on how long Meath stayed relevant in this match-up. The Royals, who played Dublin close in differing ways in each of the previous two provincial deciders, knew that over-commiting to defence was an awful idea. Teams which have tried to play deep against Dublin have ended up getting gassed and not putting a lot on the board. Instead they tried to take inspiration from Laois and keep bodies free to press forward.
The problems for Meath were threefold. Defensively, while it made sense not to play deep, they still needed to get supporting defenders back at speed. Instead Dublin have oodles of time to get a supporting man up in attack and open up the Royals at the back. Up front they weren’t able to stay in the shootout, mainly because of support. When Meath got into Dublin territory, the ball-carrier was either forced to create his own shot or off-load to player with a far more difficult opportunity at their disposal. Oh, that reminds me, good time to point out Rob Carroll’s list of hot zones for shooting for both teams over 4 years up to but not including Sunday’s game.
Meath were taking an awful lot of shots from red and yellow patches and what few they got in the green usually involved the shooter being covered.

Where Dublin need work
The few times Meath were able to get bodies in support were when they went long towards the Dublin full-back line. High balls, and not exactly surgically targeted ones at that, caused some grief for the Dublin last line as it was the one area where Meath could isolate Dublin defenders. Meath’s goal and their disallowed effort were both created from such iso situations. Regarding the disallowed goal, that was a poor call by the referee not to allow advantage but in the wider picture it really matters little.

Or do they?
That’s because Dublin are playing high and sticking to their system. If Meath couldn’t create a shot immediately from an isolation situation, Gavin’s cavalry within moments. The weakness in Dublin’s last line could well be a calculated risk by Gavin. By leaving the full backs isolated under high balls, he’s essentially able to keep the rest of his defence further from goal and more prepared to launch a counter attack. This isn’t a fellation of a good team, it’s looking at the nature of the weakness. High balls are great as part of an attack but you can’t win over 70 minutes with one mode of attack.

Teams like Conor Counihan’s Cork of 2010-2012 (the 2013 edition didn’t have much success with the tactic) used the high ball to open up other avenues of attack, Dublin are keeping them closed and trusting their last line to keep the overall efforts of opponents down. Dublin’s goal is in part to frustrate but, above all else, to tire out opponents.

And that’s where we get to the order of Dublin’s scoring. Gavin’s charges shot at about their typical rate but, as would be expected, their frequency of shooting and accuracy varied over the course of the game. Dublin managed 1-6 from their opening 12 shots, not incredible, but with Meath opening 2 of 7 it was more than ample to stretch the game early. Laois shot with greater frequency than Dublin early while Wexford, while behind on shot count, were marginally more accurate. That kept both games relevant for longer but still ended with convincing wins for Gavin’s side.

The verdict
Dublin are really good, that’s not a shock, but when a team is setting historical shooting marks in what appears to be a down year overall and the top end of the championship it doesn’t make for a great summer. Essentially, for a team to be competitive they have to find a way to slow down Dublin’s attack while still shooting the lights out and putting up far more efforts than normal. That’s not impossible but it’s really improbable, and really improbable is pretty bad for the neutral viewer.

As for Meath, there’s no question this will be a huge mental blow and now they have to take on an Armagh team that is playing smart football. Their defence is a world away from last year and it’s going to be tough for the Royals to create shots. On the upside, they have a fortnight to recover. That’s pretty much the start and end of the upside.

Kerry walloped Cork in the Munster Final on Sunday. Impressive as the Kingdom were in victory, the story of the day was unquestionably Cork’s performance. Emmet Ryan writes about the dumbest 70 minute display he has seen since TnP began.

Well that was a fun 5 minutes
Cork looked meastly for a solid 5 minutes on Sunday. The opening exchanges saw the Rebels forwards show no respect for Kerry’s defensive cover as they charged head on into contact. As part of a wider plan, this would have actually been a good idea. The Rebels had a power advantage up front and broke single coverage with ease and didn’t have a lot of issues with double coverage. It was also rather quickly established that Cork’s ball security was at its best with players either keeping the ball in hand or going long. Short and mid-range passes weren’t working. When the Rebels pressed forward, they did some damage by taking the bulldozing route. It was like a more aggressive version of Counihan-ball.

The sign that everything might go to pot came in the fourth minute. James O’Donoghue got hounded by three Cork defenders. They managed to rough him up without fouling and forced O’Donoghue to give up possession. The trio then managed to lose sight of the ball which O’Donoghue took back and charged into the gaping open field before taking his point. The error was the type of incident that happens in football, the absence of cover pointed to Cork’s surprising decision to go man-to-man at the back, essentially meaning that when someone went to support another defender it left a Kerry man open.

Wait, you’re telling me you haven’t got a plan?
It took 20 minutes for it to become clear that Cork hadn’t thought this one through. The single coverage on defence and the bomb ahead attacking had no link. Kerry outnumbered the Rebels in the middle third and wholly dominated possession. From the 18th minute the first minute of first half injury time Kerry had 11 shots, of which the converted 7, with none in reply for the Rebels. Despite the pressure at the back, Cork did nothing to adjust and beef up their cover. This wasn’t like 2013 where the Kingdom dominated the middle third but had to put the hammer down to punish Cork. Kerry were patient, only seeking out one goal chance in this spell, and found the open man repeatedly. Cork didn’t counter Kerry’s moves and this made it remarkable easy for the Eamonn Fitzmaurice’s side to close down the Rebels when they tried to break. Cork’s problems were confounded by some erratic play in possession. Much as Kerry should be credited for forcing turnovers at will, they rarely had to crank it up because Cork’s basic execution was riddled with errors.

And you’re not making any adjustments?
It was bad enough that Cork fell into a hole, that they had no plan to dig out of it was simply unforgivable. The issues were obvious, Kerry’s front line was getting excellent supply throughout the day and had little difficulty taking Cork’s last line to the cleaners. An adjustment to limit this supply, which would have more than likely had a positive attacking benefit for the Rebels as well, seemed not only necessary but obvious. Fitzmaurice is a fine tactician but he didn’t need to strain his mental muscles on Sunday. Cork made straight man for man swaps. There were no changes to the structure, no adjustments to the passing game, no switches in how they covered. There were literally no moves made to counter what Kerry were doing. The old cliche about the definition of insanity comes to mind. That Brian Cuthbert actually told one newspaper that he would have hated to be a corner back for Cork in this game was staggering. Brian, your corner backs got creamed because you did nothing to change the terms of engagement.

Don’t worry Kerry, I’ll still praise you
The one thing I really don’t want this column to do is understate Kerry’s performance. It is naturally difficult given the obscenity to football they faced for 70 minutes. The Kingdom has two issues it regular schemes around. Firstly, depth and age are not on Kerry’s side. Fitzmaurice’s charges were wise enough not to push the gas too hard early despite putting up a big lead early. They could have easily gone goal mad but they actually kept their efforts for majors relatively low, instead conserving energy and picking off points at will. That was facilitated by the best display we’ve seen from Kerry in terms of distribution in a long time. Passing in the middle third, particularly with regards to creating quality shots, has been an issue as the Kingdom had become overly reliant on Colm Cooper. There was a good spread of options here, aided by Kerry taking command of the middle third early and never relinquishing it. O’Donoghue may have taken most of the credit, and in fairness when you put up double digit points it would be mean to deny a footballer his share, but the corner forward surely had kind words for the men who gave him an excellent supply over the course of the game.

The verdict
Kerry were better than expected but didn’t answer all that many questions through no fault of their own. There is only so much you can prove when faced with such ineptitude. Rarely has a performance by a team been as frustrating as that delivered by Cork on Sunday. They failed to create, with only 22 shots in the game, failed to restrict, with Kerry putting up 39 of their own, and utterly failed to adapt to the challenge before them. The talking point after the game was that Cork’s dual players had struggled managing their commitments. I honestly have no idea because there was so much going wrong in the Rebel XV that it was impossible to tell a dual player from a single code player. It seemed an odd point of analysis to focus on, especially given Aidan Walsh has always had multiple team commitments whether he was dual or single code and it never seemed to bother anyone before. Cork’s problem isn’t in their hurlers not focusing enough on football, it’s on their entire football team and management not planning for a game they have been anticipating since the draw was made. Having a bad day or being flat out inferior is always forgivable. Cork can’t fall back on either excuse. They were unprepared, they failed to adapt, and were out-thought by a team that never had to leave second gear.

]]>http://action81.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=78560Tactics not Passion: Dublin 2-25 Wexford 1-12http://action81.com/blog/?p=7853
http://action81.com/blog/?p=7853#commentsSun, 29 Jun 2014 19:29:10 +0000Emmet Ryanhttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7853Dublin swept aside Wexford in a game that, despite it’s awful start, had an awful lot in common with the typical narrative of Dublin games this season.

Beware aberrant periods The opening quarter or so, it is reasonable to say, was forgettable for the casual viewer. Neither side was converting at a remotely passable rate with Dublin opening 2 of 10 while Wexford were a similarly terrible 1 of 5 early on. The internet was up in arms at Jim Gavin’s side taking their opponents too lightly. The truth couldn’t have been further from the case. Accuracy may have been lacking for Dublin early but their game plan was the same that saw them rack up some impressive victories en route to retaining the league title earlier this year.

Dublin’s game is built on attrition. They are willing to have poor shooting spells in order to ensure a high shot count. This is rooted in their analytics which has shown they will, more often than not, finish with a close to 50 per cent conversion rate irrespective of how many attempts they have. When your numbers say that, the logical approach is to put up as many shots as possible. It’s not quite that ugly, there is some shot selection and most of Dublin’s shots came from quality scoring positions. It’s the same reason Gavin’s side take so many attempts on goal, they have long worked out that quantity trumps quality here and that they will convert 1 in 4 shots on goal. Dublin finished the half on an 8 of 12 run, just a single conversion outside of the 50 per cent mark and a solid 6 shots more than Wexford who went 6 of 16.

Before we get to Dublin’s rampage Defensively there is plenty to say about Wexford but it’s not like this is a historically bad set of Wexford backs. Even at their best, arguably the 2011 run to the Leinster Final, it’s been a long time since defence was a strength for the Slaneysiders. It’s what they did in attack that makes for grim reading, oddly because it wasn’t that bad. Wexford shot 13 of 27 on the game. Long time readers will know the latter figure is the average number of shots per 70 minutes at championship level. Their final tally of 15 points was again pretty much on the norm. Wexford were fine. Bear all of this in mind when we get to Dublin’s final numbers because fine doesn’t even come close to cutting it for keeping close to Jim Gavin’s side.

The steps The removal of Dean Rock at half time seemed a touch harsh. Rock was fitting in nicely at centre forward and hadn’t made many errors. He certainly looked a far more natural 11 (albeit with 14 on his back) than Paddy Andrews. It wasn’t what Rock did that got the Ballymun man removed but rather than what Gavin wanted to do. The introduction of Cormac Costello was all about speed. Having Costello, Kevin McManamon, Eoghan O’Gara, and Paul Mannion on the field at one time gave Dublin a combination of speed and strength that Wexford couldn’t live with.

On a systematic level this showed just how far removed Dublin are from the style produced under Pat Gilroy. This kind of front line focus would have removed far too much focus from the half forward line under Gilroy’s style and would have led to a Van Gaal in Lansdowne Road imbalance. Instead the high lines Dublin use meant the foursome slotted in neatly and Dublin’s pressure game took hold so quickly that the field became open for the duration of the final 20 minutes. Wexford were gassed and Dublin kept on pushing.

And the stats Dublin had as many scores in this game as an average team manages shots in 70 minutes. Their 27 of 45 performance comfortably got them over the line for their 50 per cent target and, gamblers are well aware, meant they covered the spread by the narrowest of margins. Much as Dublin’s early spell was aberrant, so too was their final flourish as the open field enabled a 12 of 14 run, yielding 1-11, in the final 20 minutes. Getting 18 shots more than an opponent doesn’t just make victory likely, it makes a massacre near certain.

Over the 5 years this column has been running (which of course began with a Dublin vs Wexford game) shot count has been a reliable indicator. Even having one shot more over 70 minutes substantially increases the chances of victory, once you stretch that to three the odds are massively in your favour (my extremely rough maths says 85 per cent chance victory with a 3 shot advantage but I’m pretty sure DontFoul could back this up with his superior number crunching). Dublin look to create enough of a gulf in this sector that defeat is near impossible. Against Cork in the league semi, they had 17 more shots. Against Derry in the league final, they had 27 more than the Oakleafers. There are far more factors to Dublin’s game than how many shots they put up but there may be no better example in the sport of a team taking one piece of information from their analysts’ work and going to extremes.

The verdict Wexford should be reasonably happy with how they acquitted themselves. The odds were against them going in and the result was pretty much as expected, with the Slaneysiders losing by almost the exact margin predicted by the bookies. The one upside for any team that falls to Dublin is that their opponents in the back door can’t glean much useful data as Gavin’s side aren’t prone to presenting unknown deficiencies in their opponents.

For Dublin, the road is pretty clear. Meath are unlikely to pose a serious threat in the provincial decider as, like nearly every other side in the country, they lack the depth and firepower to trouble Gavin’s side. It’s unlikely to see any team truly test Dublin before the semi finals. This isn’t hubris, it’s dismay. Much as it’s a joy to watch a powerhouse in full flight, there is a nagging concern that the top of the tree in Football this year is lighter than usual.

]]>http://action81.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=78531Tactics not Passion: Derry 0-11 Donegal 1-11http://action81.com/blog/?p=7849
http://action81.com/blog/?p=7849#commentsSun, 25 May 2014 15:24:30 +0000Emmet Ryanhttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7849We are finally back. Several GAA outlets offer you plenty but only Tactics not Passion has the Doge. Oh that and a lengthy look at Derry’s possession game.

Derry’s possession game

The first half and pretty much the whole game was defined by Derry’s ponderous approach to play. When it worked, they ticked along nicely, when it didn’t…hoo boy. The Oakleafers were outshot 12 to 10 in the first half by Donegal but looked far more comfortable on the ball, despite getting lower quality shots from play. Derry have known all season that their best form of defence is to retain possession. It makes sense, in terms of raw skill Derry are far better at shooting than stopping so it’s a clever way to cover up their biggest flaw.

The approach was somewhat reminiscent of how Donegal approached their 2011 Ulster opener with Antrim, only with Derry’s issues being behind rather than in front of them. The Oakleafers may have had fewer shots but they were always in position to control the tempo. The best visual example is what happened when Donegal shut a man down. Even last season, when the cracks were starting to show, if Jim McGuinness’ side got numbers on a ball-carrier you could put the house on a turnover. Derry however prevented Donegal from executing this strategy for the bulk of the first half, with crowded ball-carriers able to find an open man.

Where’s the middle third game?

This was the big question for Donegal in the opening 35 minutes. They were flat out beaten in the middle third, with no capacity to create any kind of pressing game. There were signs early that when Donegal could breach the Derry 45, they would create chances. Of their 12 shots in the first half, 6 exposed the gaping hole that was Derry’s final third defence. Quality of shot, perhaps surprisingly, is not a good indicator of who will win a game especially compared to raw shot count irrespective of quality. What it did tell us was that if Donegal could adapt their game to push higher, it could spell doom for the Oakleafers.

The gate is open
Derry’s possession game is nothing new to anyone who saw them in the league. They don’t do it to improve the attack, they do it because their defence in the final third is a massive liability. The Oakleafers made it to the league final in spite of it but once Donegal punched a hole is swung the game decisively in their favour.

Once more it came down to dominance in the middle third. Donegal finally started winning ball and keeping possession away from Derry. From the start of the second half, it was a series of punches in the mouth. Within 5 minutes of the re-start, Donegal had as many scores on the board as they had in the opening 35 minutes. One, crucially, was a goal and showed the assignment issues Derry had off the ball. While it took a good pass to get Frank McGlynn open, it was misjudgement on Derry’s part that allowed him to put Leo McLoone through on goal. Three Derry defenders stormed on McGlynn with no attention paid to the space behind them. At club level that’s unacceptable, in the inter-county game it’s insane. McLoone did a good job finishing neatly but he wasn’t hurt by the lack of coverage from the Derry backs.

Derry aren’t built for comebacks
Once that initial spurt ended, Derry reasserted control but the damage was clearly done. The Oakleafers had gone 20 minutes without a score. Donegal had managed to score 1-6 from 9 shots and moved 6 points clear. Derry’s game plan, flawed as it is against the very top of the tree, is fine against comparable opponents so long as they keep it tight. The size of the hole, while not insurmountable for teams that move the ball faster, was huge for a patient football team even with 20 minutes left on the clock.

Donegal could afford to switch to a more controlled game now, meaning the fatigue their older line-up would feel became less of a factor. The crowning point came in the final minute. McGuinness’ side was able to bleed the clock once they approached the Derry 45, knowing the Oakleafers couldn’t afford to bring excess pressure on their ball-carriers. Eventually McLoone popped over from short range but the damage was done in the lengthy passing movement that led to his shot.

The verdict
Donegal, for all the excitement of that 13 minute spurt to start the second half, are still riddled with problems. It was far too easy for Derry to set the tempo early and Donegal’s defence couldn’t follow through on its pressure. The pressing game that aided this team so much in 2012 appears to be gone and, given its age profile, that’s probably necessary. McGuinness has a team capable of winning Ulster but Sunday’s win, coupled with Tyrone’s wildly varying performances against Down, did nothing to change the view that this provincial title could go to the team that errs the least.

This is a tough loss for Derry as their best shot at the quarter finals certainly came via Ulster, be it through round 4 as runners up or direct as champions, and fundamentally it’s down to their defence. Derry have the shooting talent to want to open up but their last third defence won’t allow them. Once the possession game fails, there is no plan B. Dublin exploited this violently in the league final but there’s no shortage of teams that will see this as an area to target early on during the back door rounds.

Thank you
Oh and finally, sorry for being gone for so long. The combination of getting a new job back in October, which is cracking, taking over BallinEurope, some minor physical health issues, and working out what the next book projects are going to be left me rather wrecked. Clearing the head before coming back for the summer has helped. Normal service has very much resumed. Thank you for your patience.

]]>http://action81.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=78494On Janay Rice and the Ravenshttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7843
http://action81.com/blog/?p=7843#commentsSat, 24 May 2014 17:46:11 +0000Emmet Ryanhttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7843On a weekend with lots of sports stories to get excited about, the Baltimore Ravens put a downer on proceedings with a knuckle-headed move that showed how out of touch sports organisations can be. Emmet Ryan gives his take.

Last night the Baltimore Ravens tweeted this from their official account:

Janay Rice says she deeply regrets the role that she played the night of the incident.

On what planet does any sports team or organisation think it’s a good idea to tweet a quote of a victim of domestic violence apologising for being abused?

For those unaware of the background. Ray Rice was charged with assault following video footage of him dragging his then fiancee, now wife, Janay Rice unconscious from an elevator. Ray Rice compounded matters by making the following statement in his scripted apology: “Failure is not getting knocked down, but not getting up.”

By its very nature, domestic violence charges against one of its employees are a difficult matter for any organisation to address. Indeed the same could be said for any criminal charge. There are however levels of difficulty and levels of quality to the response. The Ravens failed in every way to do either the right thing or the smart thing. They did the dumbest thing, they did the worst thing.

The idea of putting either Rice in front of the press to read out a prepared statement is a bad idea. Putting out both of them was an awful one. Ray Rice has entered a pre-trial treatment programme, where does putting him out in front of the public before the judicial process has run its course make sense? Janay Rice had her limp body dragged from an elevator by her now husband who, as we just mentioned, is facing charges for the events that led to her being unconscious in the first place. Does anyone in the Ravens organisation not see the issue with putting her out in front of the press under their auspices beside the man accused of assaulting her?

It’s impossible to ignore one simple fact. If Ray Rice was a back-up, this wouldn’t have played out like this. The Ravens would have cut him as soon as the video surfaced. Ray Rice however is the star running back for a team that won the Super Bowl less than 18 months ago. Next to Joe Flacco, he’s the biggest star on the current roster. The Ravens saw his value and sought to protect it, an act which has blinded them but that is no excuse. There are many, many, better ways with which the Ravens could have handled this better.

The problem is this act by the Ravens is a blunt and irresponsible reaction framed around what they do about Ray Rice. That’s not uncommon and that is a huge issue. The NFL franchise is far from alone in this. They made this about the accused, about his problems, and not about the person who has suffered. It’s a line of thought that’s not radically different to those who threaten to physically hurt an attacker, alleged or otherwise. When we put actions based on those accused of crimes ahead of those who are victims, whether it is to punish or protect, we wholly fail the latter.

We need to be talking more about Janay Rice in this situation, not Ray Rice. We need to be talking about her and, most importantly, we need to be listening to her in a situation where she isn’t being trotted out by her alleged attacker’s employers to sit right beside him and speak after him.

When the Ravens started to think about their response and how it would affect their organisation, a perfectly reasonable and expected act for a business, they should have put that front and centre of their thought process. We don’t fix the issue by thinking of what we will do about Ray Rice, we do it by thinking about Janay Rice.

Macho displays of vengeance are a lot less important than the real work of ending violence against women because violence just creates more violence and the real work is where we believe women, where we recognise the link between devaluing women’s contributions and belittling them, and the enablement of violence that silences and kills them. We need the normal situation, the one society expects, to be one where women can expect to be treated with respect and not be made to feel like they have to be grateful for and where it’s safe to name domestic violence where it is happening, and not face threats or silencing or ostracism.

Almost a day later, that tweet is still up on the official Twitter account for the Baltimore Ravens. A good start would be removing it and all mentions of the press conference. It was a bad idea, you can’t wash away that mistake, but you can acknowledge it was an error by ceasing to promote it.

]]>http://action81.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=78432NHL Playoffs, take twohttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7840
http://action81.com/blog/?p=7840#commentsThu, 15 May 2014 14:31:18 +0000Zoe Coleman McNairhttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7840The second round is nearly over but Emmet had a couple of wild weeks travelling, so belatedly here’s Zoe Coleman McNair’s round-up of round one and analysis if round two of the NHL playoffs which Emmet hastens to add she sent in on time and it’s all his fault.

So the first round of the playoffs are done and dusted, and for the most part, there were few surprises.

The Boston Bruins handily dispatched the Detroit Red Wings in five games. Boston winning the series was always the consensus prediction, but many would have expected Detroit to put up more of a fight. But with Jimmy Howard out with the flu (either the real flu or the mysterious flu you get after a head injury) and many of their top scorers either injured or only recently recovered, there was little Detroit could do to hold on. Detroit lead for barely more then fifteen minutes across the five games, and gave up the first goal in three games, and had no answer for heavy-hitting, hard-cycling Boston. Detroit have always been a good team and have an excellent record for making the playoffs, but the last couple of years have shown where their weaknesses as a team lie, and until they manage to address those, they’re not going to be a match for any of the league’s powerhouses, even in an easier divison then they’ve previously had.

The Montreal Canadiens steamrolled the Tampa Bay Lightning, sweeping the series. Definitely a disappointing end to their season for the team and the fans, as many had been hoping Tampa’s better possesion record in the regular season would keep them alive longer. I still think that with Bishop healthy this series would have been much closer, but it’s not easy to just replace a Vezina-candidate goaltender. Lindback’s regular season numbers were barely servicable for a back-up, and he had no answer for the Montreal offense when it was firing on all cylinders. With Tampa’s possession taking even just the slight dip it did, and Montreal’s getting a boost at the right time, Tampa couldn’t do anything to match Carey Price, and we got our only sweep of the round.

The round two match up between Boston and Montreal promises to be tense, at least. Anyone hoping to get through Boston is going to have to not only be on top form themselves, but also rely on being able to knock Boston off their game. Luckily for Montreal, knocking people off their game is a speciality of theirs. The teams and their fan bases have one of the olders rivalries in the league, and it didn’t even take a full game for us to see how ugly it can get, at least among the spectators. On the ice though, both teams have strong goaltending working for them, but Boston plays a strong puck-possession game, and Montreal were barely able to crack 50% against Tampa Bay. Montreal have some productive forwards, but the Boston defense has been able to smother much more potent scorers already this year, and Montreal are going to have to work hard to get pucks anywhere near Rask, let alone past him.

Expectations for Pittsburgh are always going to be sky high, just because of who they have on their team, and this wasn’t any different. Columbus, on the other hand, were in the opposite position, with only their second trip to the post-season in the team’s history. Pittsburgh played their usual style of hockey, which can alternate between flashes of brilliance at times and a complete mess at others, and there were definitely moments that had fans of the team (which, full disclosure, I am) covering their eyes. After going 5-0 in their regular season meetings, the biggest question over Pittsburgh’s head was goaltending, with Marc-Andre Fleury’s reputation for disintegrating in the playoffs thought to be Columbus’ biggest chance to gain a foothold in the series. Fleury kept it together though, posting numbers that were lower than his regular-season play but still enough to keep them ahead. Columbus’ advantage in goaltending didn’t prove the boost they may have hoped, with Bobrovsky posting almost identical numbers to Fleury, but facing a higher volume of shots. Despite Crosby not scoring any goals himself, he controlled play to a huge degree whenever on the ice (despite whatever many national reporters were saying about him being “shut down” by Dubinsky) and Pittsburgh out-possessed Columbus to a huge degree. When their bottom six started to click and contribute goals, one of the big issues with Pittsburgh’s play was lessened (though it’s still not gone) and they managed to dispatch Columbus in six. The series was very close though, with five of the six games being decided by a single goal and both teams giving up multiple leads at various points, and Pittsburgh were easily a couple of bad bounces from having to play a seventh game, or losing the series entirely.

For whatever reason, the New York Rangers haven’t won a playoff series in less then seven games since 2008, and this year was no different. They traded wins with the Philadelphia to the end, but managed to pull it out in game seven. Philadelphia are another team with depth issues, and when New York’s defence was able to shut them down, they struggled with secondary scoring. Without their top forwards scoring, they managed the second worst volume of shots on goal of the playoffs, and had nothing to counter with. Even though Philadelphia were the better team on the power play, the Rangers controlled the ice at even strength, and their speed was enough to have Philadelphia on the back foot. Their defence struggled consistently throughout the series, with many turnovers and defensive-zone mistakes giving the Rangers enough room to manoeuvre their way to victory.

Both Pittsburgh and New York will find round two a tough match-up. New York have the clear advantage in goaltending, and while Pittsburgh in theory have the edge in scoring, New York have their share of goal scorers as well. New York spent the regular season as a good possession team, and managed to fight their way back into contention after a severely disappointing start, so they already know what it takes to battle hard. Neither teams’ top scorers from the regular season – like Crosby and Nash – have a goal yet, which that probably won’t continue, and the teams are generally matched well across the board, with New York not having quite the same top-level scoring talent as Pittsburgh, but greater depth, and a stronger and more experienced defensive core. If Pittsburgh can put together 60 minutes of their best hockey then they’re one of the best teams in the league, but for some reason they rarely manage to do that, and with the lapses they’re prone too, there’s plenty of room for a strong New York performance to knock them out.

Dallas managed to put up more of a fight then Tampa or Detroit, but still fell short. There were a lot of positives for Dallas to take from the series – they outpossesed Anaheim at even strength and many of their top players were productive, but some key issues kept them from succeeding. Far too many penalties gave Anaheim enough chances to stay ahead, with game five in particular proving disasterous. While Dallas’ big stars all contributed, they just don’t have enough depth to answer Anaheim, who got key contributions from their depth players. I always hate to put too much stock in intangibles, but there is something to be said for the benefits of big game experience, and Dallas is for the most part a very young squad. For a team that started the year with very low expectations though, there’s a lot for their fans and management to feel good about, and with the right additions they could prove even more dangerous next year.

San Jose have developed a reputation for choking in the post season, and for those that are inclined to narrative this series isn’t going to change anything. After winning the first three games, they ended up losing the series in one of only four reverse sweeps in playoff history. Everything that could have gone wrong seemed too, with LA’s goalie regaining his touch seemingly overnight, and San Jose losing one of their top defensemen for the remainder of the series. Their scoring seemed to disappear and when LA finally managed to figure themselves out after the first three games, San Jose had no answer. LA are an incredibly good team with some of the best possesion in the league, and in theory losing to them in seven games isn’t something that should cause panic, but after several years of failing to convert strong regular seasons to playoff success, there’s a chance changes could be in store for San Jose.

The LA and Anaheim match-up is another good rivalry for the second round, with the teams’ first playoff meeting shining a light on Southern California hockey, one of the fastest-growing areas of interest for the sport. On the face of it, it doesn’t look like an easy road for Anaheim. They got out posses by Dallas in the first round, and while Dallas are a solid enough possession team, LA have pretty much the best possession in the league as a matter of course. LA’s had trouble scoring of the course of the season, but they took steps to address that at the deadline (and we all know what happened the last time they traded for a winger from Columbus) and it’s going to be a struggle to keep them off the scoresheet for very long. It could come down to another battle of the goalies, with Quick on one side and whatever combo of Hiller/Anderson/Gibson Boudreau decides to go with, but even with that, this is going to be a hard fight for Anaheim.

The St. Louis and Chicago match up proved to be the hard fought series it was looking like, with four of the six games being decided by a single goal (three of which were overtime wins). The start of the series it looked like it might finally be St. Louis’ turn, with them taking the first two games, but Chicago rebounded sharply to take four in a row. Injuries to key players didn’t help, with St. Louis’ captain David Backes suffering an injury after an illegal hit to the head that almost certainly left him concussed, regardless of what St. Louis’ reported his injury as. With Backes off-form, and several other players only recently returned from injury, there was little St. Louis could do to hold Chicago off. Their blockbuster trade deadline acquisition – goaltender Ryan Miller – didn’t wind up being the final piece they needed, with his save percentage plummeting over the course of the series. Much like San Jose, St. Louis is a team that often struggles with the playoffs after a strong regular season, though they’ve mostly managed to avoid the ‘choker’ label, and it’s going to be interesting to see what changes they make this summer to get their team in the right direction.

In theory, a wild card team defeating the team that came top of their division would be an upset, but that’s not really the case with the Wild’s defeat of the Avalanche. Everyone’s been waiting for the Avalanche to crash back down to earth, and when they managed to put up even worse possession numbers in the playoffs then they had in the regular season (a pretty hard task) the anticipation only grew. With Varlamov still on form, the Avalanche managed to pull out wins despite their abysmal possession, and took it to seven games. They have some super dynamic forwards, but they’re all very young and pretty inexperienced, and once you get past them the team is very thin on scoring depth, and rendered even thinner by injuries to key offensive players like Duchene and Barrie. The Wild may not have that kind of super dynamic player in abundance, they have more solid depth, and all four of their lines contributed to their scoring.

Chicago are a very good team. If you’re a fan of Chicago, this is great. If you’re like me, and think that the sustained success of any team that isn’t yours is terrible, then this is terrible. The Wild are a team on the rise, and much like Dallas have a lot to be proud of in their showing so far this year, but Bryzgalov is their fourth starting goaltender this year (he only started 12 games for them in the regular season), and that’s a really difficult situation for a team to be in for the playoffs. Bryzgalov has a very contentious history as a goaltender, he plays the position more conservatively than their previous goaltenders, and the playoffs are really not the time for a team to try and learn a different style of defence to support that style. They’re a team with a lot of talent, and I don’t think this is going to be a walkover, but when Chicago are firing on all cylinders, there isn’t much that can stop them.

]]>http://action81.com/blog/?feed=rss2&p=78403Picking sideshttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7838
http://action81.com/blog/?p=7838#commentsSat, 19 Apr 2014 05:00:48 +0000Declan Hugheshttp://action81.com/blog/?p=7838In a World Cup year and with the major finals across most major European sports fast approaching, Declan Hughes offers his thoughts on how neutrals can decide which side to pick.

In my last piece I discussed provincial allegiances. This topic was inspired by a question posed to me by a player, Irish international Leah Ewert from UCD, my favourite field hockey team, who was lining out for her native province Ulster in a competition against my native province later on in the Under 21 interprovincial tournament… “Who are you rooting for today?”.
In the previous article I explored the area of provincial allegiance, but Leah Ewert’s seemingly innocuous enquiry poses yet another question.

As 2014 is a year in which the Winter Olympics occurred in Sochi, Russia (Ireland only sent 5 competitors) and the World Cup takes place this summer in Brazil (neither the Republic nor Northern Ireland qualified), it poses yet another question in the area of allegiance.

Who do you root for, in major international sporting events, when you’re obvious choices are not taking part? Even within the provincial context as a Leinster man I feel quite comfortable rooting for other Irish provinces in rugby when they take on foreign opposition. Not a problem. They are Irish after all.

In the recent winter Olympics what few highlights I was able to take in, it was easy as a former resident of Canada, to choose an option and I rooted for them in most events. The exception, apart from the events including Irish participation, was curling.
I was introduced to curling while living in Canada via television. Each year about eight countries including Scotland, the USA and I think Denmark participated in a made for TV event called The Golden Broom, the Canadian skip during this was inevitably Don Duguid.

Indeed in the competition to select team Canada where the provincial teams took part as a resident of predominantly French speaking Quebec , they too were my team.

For some reason despite all this personal historical baggage associated with my former place of residence I found myself on a rare occasion rooting for Great Britain in this because essentially it was Scotland by another name. I also knew while they had a shot at medals, the Women were going to ultimately fall short to the Canadians and the men were about as competent as their female counterparts and unlikely to strike gold. Underdogs normally do it for me when all other criteria for choosing a team fall short.
World Cup 2014 however will be a different case in point. Neither Canada nor the two Irish representative sides made the finals. My Chilean born granny gives me a South American side to root for. My Egyptian born granddad, didn’t make it on either front as he was raised in Newtownards. But there’s something unnatural about not supporting a fellow continental side. In fact since we joined the EU it’s sort of incumbent to root for a fellow member state.

I found my other home in football long before I knew of the EU or indeed before Ireland joined this august association.
The first time I can ever recall watching soccer was in Montreal on ABC’s Wide World Of Sports show, in a friend’s house, back in June 1970. I was visiting my buddy Albert Ottoni and his family when highlights of the 1970 World Cup being held in Mexico. As my hosts were Italians it would have been rude to root for anyone else and the game I saw highlights from was the classic semi final 4-3 extra-time win over West Germany. I also saw highlights from the final where that amazing Brazil team danced on Italy by 4-1. That didn’t bother me, I was an Italy fan from then on.

When I took up the game on my return to Ireland, as a goalkeeper , Dino Zoff soon became a favourite player . And the 1974 World Cup where the team, who in 1973 were on form no.1 on the planet defeating England, Germany and Brazil in friendlies, bowed out in the group stages still didn’t discourage me. Neither did the defeat to two long range goals at the hands of the Dutch in Argentina 1978.

In 1974 once Italy were eliminated , I hitched my wagon to the Yugoslavian star and the mercurial wing wizard Dragan Dzajic. His club Red Star Belgrade also wormed their way into my affections and I was thrilled in 1991 when they were crowned champions of Europe. I was probably the happiest person without any Yugoslav ethnic connections in the world at the time. The Yugoslavs (later Serbs) have been default position no. 2 ever since.

I got my best buzz as an honorary Italian fan in 1982 when against the odds they beat the best four other countries in the tournament to win the World Cup in Spain. My favourite player Dino Zoff captained the side to ultimate glory. Short of your own country doing the trick, it doesn’t really get any better than that. Mexico 1986 was another disappointing tournament and in Italia 90 I was rooting for my native country for the first time till we lost 0-1, in a quarter-final, to the Azzuri.

They then in turn let me down, despite being the best man for man team in the tournament, by losing to Argentina in the semi-final.
By World Cup 1994 when Republic of Ireland beat the Azzuri 1-0 but also bowed out early I was happy to see Italy make the final but Roberto Baggio “ The Divine Ponytail” missed the crucial spot kick after a 0-0 to deny Arrigo Sacchi the biggest prize a coach can win in World soccer. The France World Cup in 1998 was disappointing and in 2002 the Italians were cheated out of advancing to the latter knockout stages , in a game against South Korea, by a referee who was found to be corrupt later on. Said individual is currently languishing in jail for low level criminal activity.

While I enjoyed seeing Italy win in 2006 and seeing Zoff’s logical successor Gianluigi Buffon captain the side it was probably the flukiest of Italy’s four World Cup wins. More disappointment followed in 2010 but I didn’t and wouldn’t give up on them.
In 2014 it will be no different I will still root for the Azzuri. So you know where I stand this summer. And I hope I have been able to explain to you why I made that call. Who will you be rooting for?

With the Stanley Cup Playoffs under way, Zoe Coleman McNair looks at the struggle for acceptance of advanced stats in the NHL and breaks down the match-ups.

In 2012, the LA Kings barely scraped into the 8th seed in the Western Conference, and proceeded to practically cruise through the playoffs, only dropping four games before winning their first Stanley Cup. Everyone loves a Cinderella run, and the Kings’ story seemed to tick all the boxes, except one: had they really been an average team that got good when it counted, or a good team whose bad luck disappeared when it mattered?

The answer isn’t as clear cut as that, but it definitely leaned towards the latter, putting the Kings squarely into the middle of the advanced statistics debate – or as they’re known in hockey, ‘fancystats’. Unlike in baseball, where analytics are common, hockey media (and many team organisations) have been reluctant to embrace anything more advanced than the most basic statistics. Part of the problem is that unlike in baseball, which is more easily distilled down to a series of single events, hockey is a messy sprawl where multiple things are happening at once, making it that much harder to track.

The movement towards embracing fancystats is growing, even though the stats themselves are imperfect. The problem is that the stats used in hockey don’t really correlate exactly with a team’s record. Instead, they can be used to look at the underlying strengths and weaknesses of a team, and if a team’s record is outperforming their underlying numbers, the stats will show us where the eventual crash back to earth will come from. Unfortunately they can’t tell us when that crash will happen, so many have dismissed them as useless.

The most commonly referenced stats are Corsi and Fenwick, which (in slightly different ways) puck possession, counting how many shots are aimed towards/around the opposition’s net during a game. They tends to correlate with success, because the more times you aim the puck at the net the more chances it has to go in, and if you have the puck it means the other team can’t aim it at your net. PDO roughly measures how lucky a team is being, by taking two numbers that over enough time should add up to 100, and measuring how far above or below that a team is.

This year’s playoffs feature multiple teams whose positioning doesn’t correlate to their underlying numbers, which makes the early rounds ripe with potential upsets. Colorado have one of the best records in the league, finishing third in the regular season, but their possession stats are so bad that the only teams worse than them are outright terrible, and the only thing keeping them as alive as they are is both their goaltenders performing above and beyond. Montreal are ninth in the league though they’re barely ahead of Colorado in possession, but have the reigning Olympic gold-medal winner in their net, which has kept them alive enough to make the playoffs. Anaheim rode the second highest PDO to the top of the Western conference, but their possession stats don’t even break the top ten, which means they really don’t have any leeway for their shooting percentage (the amount of shots on goal that become actual goals) to regress very far before they could be in serious trouble, especially with a new question mark over their goaltending after their regular season starter put together a string of underwhelming performances.

The other side of the coin is New Jersey and Vancouver, both top 10 possession teams with low shooting percentages and uneven goaltending dragging them out of the playoffs. In comparison, Florida are solidly middle of the league in possession and the second worst team in the league by their actual results.

Toronto are perhaps the ultimate example used in the fancystats versus results debate. They managed to take advantage of exceptional goaltending in the early season to keep themselves in the playoff hunt, while the stats fans kept pointing to their terrible possession numbers as an indication that it wouldn’t last. It didn’t, and Toronto finished the year in 23rd place, but even that was better than their dead-last possession numbers.Their seeming refusal to accept that their success was unsustainable, even as their season collapsed around them, has lead to even those who are less dedicated to fancystats wondering how Toronto could have ignored their underlying problems for so long.

This despite the fact that other teams – like Colorado and Montreal, had far greater discrepancies between their possession numbers and their eventual positions. If there’s nothing else you can rely on in hockey, you can at least rely on the rest of the league delighting in the failures of the Maple Leafs.

But while the Leafs eventual downfall provided ammunition for the pro-stats side of the debate, the other teams’ continuing success in the face of subpar possession shores up the other side – if the stats can’t be relied upon to be predictive across the whole league rather then just individual teams, then how much use can they really be as an analytics tool? The fact that regression is mostly inevitable doesn’t help us if we can’t predict when it’ll begin, and if a team can string together sixteen wins with very few losses during the regular season even with terrible possession, there’s theoretically nothing to stop them doing the same in the playoffs.

But the fact of the matter is, relying on best-in-the-league goaltending to provide your wins isn’t something that’s sustainable in the long term. Even the teams that do have generally outstanding goaltending over a long period of time – New York, LA, Boston, are able to back that up with above-average to strong possession numbers, meaning that they have more leeway to still succeed even if their goaltenders hit a string of below-average performances.

At the end of the day, teams like Toronto ignore the statistics and put together chaotic and eventually doomed seasons, while teams like Chicago scrupulously track analytics and enjoy repeated seasons of success and two cups in four years. Even if hockey’s fancystats are imperfect predictors and still young, with the increasing visible correlation between good statistical performance and team success, the debate isn’t going away anytime soon.

First Round Matchups:

Anaheim (1) vs Dallas (8)

For my money, this has the potential to be one of the best matchups of the round. Anaheim have the best record in the West (only one point behind league-leaders Boston), but their underlying numbers imply they’re just waiting to regress. The only problem with regression is we never know when it’s going to arrive, and while Dallas’ underlying numbers are good, they still have a bunch of question marks over their defense. If both goalies stay on form and the top line pairings of Getzlaf/Perry and Seguin/Benn contribute as we know they can, this could easily go the distance

Colorado (2) vs Minnesota (7)

Expectations for Colorado started out so low it would have been hard for them not to eclipse them, but it’s safe to say nobody predicted them winning their division (probably team-for-team the toughest in the league). However, the majority of their success has been down to stellar goaltending masking some atrocious possession stats (none of the teams below them made the playoffs) and most people are expecting a collapse to come soon. Unfortunately for Minnesota, their possession numbers aren’t much better, and a string of injuries and illnesses mean they probably don’t have stellar goaltending to rely on. With any other central opponent, Colorado would probably be done, but this could be their ticket to the second round.

St. Louis (3) vs Chicago (5)

On paper, this matchup is a bloodbath, with many fans disappointed it’s not going to be in a later round. Chicago are last year’s champions and have seemed to avoid the worst of a cup hangover, and St. Louis spent most of the season rolling over everyone in their path. But injuries to key players and late-season skids left both teams out of the running for top of the central. Chicago finished the year barely able to beat anyone in their division, and St. Louis went out on a 6-game losing streak. This at least means the series should still be evenly-matched, though perhaps not quite as good as fans had hoped. It’ll likely come down to which team rebounds from injuries faster (and has fewer players playing through them), and whether or not Ryan Miller can get back to his early season form.

San Jose (4) vs LA (5)

Similarly to St. Louis vs Chicago, this is another series fans were hoping to wait a little longer for. Both teams have put together strong regular seasons despite bouts of scoring difficulty, and when they met in the second round last year it went to seven games, with five of those being decided by a single goal. San Jose are hoping Tomáš Hertl’s return from injury will add to their scoring and that other key players don’t falter if they’re going to keep on track for their first cup, and the Kings need goaltender Jonathan Quick to turn in another excellent post-season, because the Kings score fewer goals than the majority of the league. However, if he’s back on top form then the Sharks getting anything past him is going to be a tough sell, and there’s every chance they take it to seven games again.

Boston (1) vs Detroit (8)

Boston have the best record, the best defenseman, the best defensive forward, and probably the best goalie in the league. They made it to the finals last year and are definitely planning on making it back. Detroit have the best coach in the league (arguably the sport), but are missing key players in Zetterberg and Datsyuk. It’s not impossible, but it’ll be incredibly hard for Detroit to pull an upset. If Detroit’s younger players can push to a next level AND Boston have an unexpected meltdown then maybe, but most watchers have already called this one.

Pittsburgh (2) vs Columbus (7)

Almost every possible prediction has been made for this series. On the one hand Pittsburgh have been in the playoffs every year since 2007, including one cup, one cup final and one conference final, and have the best player in the world in Crosby (on top of Malkin, who’s top 5), and the second best record in the east despite more injuries then any other team. On the other, their bottom six is a possession black hole and they have a goalie who many doubt is capable of winning playoff series’. Columbus have a lot of players who’re desperate for post-season success (they’ve only ever played four playoff games, all losses) and a goalie who won the Vezina (Best goaltender in the league) last year. Either team winning is a possibility, but there could be big shake-ups in store for Pittsburgh if they suffer another premature playoff exit.

Tampa Bay (3) vs Montreal (4)

Tampa Bay are another team few were expecting to make it this far, after ending the 2013 season 27th in the league, but they’ve outperformed expectations to a huge degree. Tampa have better possession and Montreal has better goaltending, but with Tampa having lost one of their top players at the trade deadline and their starting goalie for probably the first couple of games at least, they’re left starting the playoffs with their backup. Lindback has been good so far, but hasn’t had enough starts to really anticipate how he’ll fare over a best of seven series, and they need Stamkos and the rest of the team to be on top form, whilst also hoping Montreal’s scoring woes continue, and that Price’s goaltending doesn’t keep papering over the cracks in possession.

New York (5) vs Philadelphia (6)

Philadelphia were so bad at the start of the season that their coach got fired after three games. Their possession stats are middle of the road, their goaltending is bad, and they’ve barely managed to score more then they’ve allowed. They’ve lucked into their starting goalie going above and beyond a few times, and their forwards getting it together when it counted to claw their way to the post-season, but their defense core has some serious holes. New York also started the season off badly, but rebounded better, and their possession numbers are better and their goaltending is near the top of the league. The Rangers will be aiming to take an early lead and shut the door, and when Lundqvist is on top form, there aren’t many players that can get many past him.