‘Atmospheric river’ set to soak much of California

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MONTEREY — One of the biggest — and likely last — “atmospheric rivers” of the season is taking aim at much of California, and is expected to deliver up to 10 inches of rain in some locations south of Monterey.

The brunt of the storm system will miss the Bay Area, where rainfall totals between Tuesday and Thursday will range from 0.5 to 1.5 inches in most cities and 2 to 5 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, according to the National Weather Service in Monterey.

Three-day rainfall estimates for the Bay Area, from the National Weather Service.

The atmospheric river — a plume of subtropical moisture — will instead bear down on the state’s central and southern coasts. The heaviest rainfall could occur Wednesday in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. In his weather blog, Swain said the storm system could be the biggest of the year in Southern California, where rainfall totals generally range from 20 to 30 percent of normal.

Heavy rainfall is also forecast for Central California, including the southern Sierra Nevada, according to the weather service. Up to 6 inches of rain could fall in Big Sur.

The deluge is expected to help ease nagging rainfall deficits but could bring flooding and destructive debris flows to communities burned bare by huge wildfires late last year.

Authorities told as many as 30,000 people to leave communities on the south coast of Santa Barbara County, where mudslides from a Jan. 9 deluge destroyed or damaged hundreds of homes in Montecito, killed 21 people and left two children missing. Authorities also ordered evacuations in parts of neighboring Ventura County.

Many residents of both counties have faced repeated evacuations or advisories since December, when a wind-driven fire grew into the largest in recorded state history. It scorched more than 440 square miles, destroyed 1,063 buildings and damaged 280 others.

That blaze and previous fires dating to mid-2016 set up the potential for extreme danger from storms.

Bay Area morning commuters brace themselves for the “atmospheric river” rolling into the state, Tuesday, March 20, 2018, in San Francisco, Calif., (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)

Montecito resident Molly Rosecrance said she now keeps emergency rations and clothing in the trunk of her car.

“I’m tired of moving it,” she told Santa Barbara news station KEYT-TV on Monday. “So if there is anything that comes down of any consequence, I might be out of my house for two weeks. I have groceries in the car to take to a friend’s house and clothes.”

Three-day rainfall estimates for Southern California, from the National Weather Service.

No evacuations were ordered elsewhere, but with burn scars scattered across the state, authorities urged people to be prepared for the storm and made sandbags available. Away from the coast, flash flood watches were to go into effect Wednesday for areas of the Sierra Nevada and mountains in the interior of Southern California.

In the Bay Area, rain began falling Tuesday morning. As of 5:15 p.m., 24-hour rainfall totals included .34 inches in downtown San Francisco, .25 inches in Gilroy, .22 inches in Livermore, .20 inches in Oakland, .15 inches in Concord, .09 inches in Mountain View and Hayward, and .06 inches in San Jose, according to the weather service.

Following a brief break Wednesday morning, another round of rain is expected late Wednesday into Thursday, said Roger Gass, a meteorologist with the weather service.

“We have had some significant rainfall events, including a few earlier in the season, but this is probably one of the strongest we’ve had in the past couple of months,” Gass said. “February was rather dry, which is typically when we see a lot of rainfall events.”

The storm system, also known as a “Pineapple Express” because of its subtropical origins in the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, should allow much of the state to make a dent in widespread rainfall deficits.

Currently, 47 percent of California is still classified as being in some form of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a report issued each week by federal scientists. All of the affected area is south of the Bay Area.

For the water year, which began Oct. 1, rainfall totals across Northern California generally range from 50 to 70 percent of normal, including Oakland (61 percent), San Francisco (59 percent), Santa Rosa (58 percent) and San Jose (51 percent).

This also might be the last, best chance to boost rainfall totals following an unusually dry December and February. Once the storm clears, the weather service is forecasting dry weather through the end of the month.

“This looks like it could be our last hurrah of atmospheric rivers,” Gass said. “By Sunday, conditions dry out. And it looks to be rounding out March.

“We’re less likely to see big rainfall events in April as we transition into that more summer pattern,” he said.

Jason Green is a breaking news reporter for the Bay Area News Group. He works week nights and spends most of his time covering crime and public safety. A graduate of UC Santa Barbara and the University of Southern California, he cut his teeth at the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin and the Palo Alto Daily News, and has been with the Bay Area News Group since its inception.