Did Cantor really lose because of immigration?

posted at 11:31 am on June 11, 2014 by Allahpundit

Better question: Does it matter? His defeat’s being received by the powers that be as a referendum on amnesty; no one thinks the prospects for immigration reform are the same as they were 24 hours ago, despite the White House’s lame effort to spin the Graham/Cantor outcomes as a, er, win for reformers. As such, there’s a “Keynesian beauty contest” element to all this. Whatever the real reason is for why Cantor lost, the reason accepted by the crowd on the Hill is immigration. That’s what matters. Wonderful news for border hawks.

But let’s stick with the question, just for funsies. Did amnesty do him in? Some smart observers think there’s more to it than that. Erick Erickson:

Cantor’s constituent services moved more toward focusing on running the Republican House majority than his congressional district. K Street, the den of Washington lobbyists, became his chief constituency. In Virginia a couple of months ago, several residents of Cantor’s district groused that they were going to support Brat because they did not think Cantor was doing his job as a Virginia congressman. Others no longer trusted him.

Cantor and his staff both lost the trust of conservatives and constituents. They broke promises, made bad deals, and left many feeling very, very betrayed. Much of it was because of Cantor’s hubris and the arrogance of his top staffers. He could not be touched and he could not be defeated. He knew it and they knew it. He kept his attention off his district, constituents, and conservatives while he and his staff plotted to get the Speaker’s chair.

“Was immigration an issue? Yes. Was it the deciding factor to the tune of 11%? Not no, hell no. It’s a fairy tale,” Virginia Democratic strategist Dave “Mudcat” Saunders said. “People talk. And they talk about Eric Cantor. ‘Where is he?’ His constituent services suck. He was never in the district. And when he was in the district and he went out, he had a [security] entourage with him. He was out gallivanting all over the country being a big deal and this is a lesson.”

Dave Brat hammered Cantor on the trail for being an insider too. Casual observers like me only noticed his amnesty rhetoric, but the Wall Street/Main Street divide was a key part of his pitch. He ran a full-spectrum populist campaign, packed with attacks on Cantor for being too chummy with lobbyists and assorted other cronies. In fact, as Ed noted earlier, a PPP poll of voters in Cantor’s district yesterday found overwhelmingly support for comprehensive immigration reform — even among Republicans:

About 72 percent of registered voters in Cantor’s district polled on Tuesday said they either “strongly” or “somewhat” support immigration reform that would secure the borders, block employers from hiring those here illegally, and allow undocumented residents without criminal backgrounds to gain legal status – three key tenets of an overhaul, according to a poll by the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the liberal advocacy group Americans United for Change.

Looking just at Republicans in Cantor’s district, the poll found that 70 percent of GOP registered voters would support such a plan, while 27 percent would oppose.

Meanwhile, Cantor was deeply unpopular in his district, the PPP poll found. About 63 percent of those surveyed in his district said they did not approve of the job Cantor has been doing, with 30 percent of registered voters approving. Among Republicans, 43 percent approved of Cantor’s job performance, while 49 percent disapproved, the survey found.

Polling immigration reform is always, shall we say, problematic, but I think you can square PPP’s data with Brat’s win. The majority of local Republicans might mildly support a grand bargain on amnesty, but on hot-button issues like this, it’s the opponents who have the turnout muscle. Same with guns, of course. The public supports expanded background checks overwhelmingly but few House Republicans would dare back it for fear of being swamped by gun-rights enthusiasts at the polls in their district. My theory, then, cliche though it may be, is that Cantor got swept away by a perfect storm. He was too disengaged with his district and had been for years; he employed a poor campaign strategy that ended up inadvertently elevating Brat; he faced soul-deep disgust among voters, especially tea partiers, with the Washington status quo, which the House majority leader inevitably embodies to some extent; and, yes, his chatter about DREAMers triggered conservative outrage at House Republicans’ endless flirtation with amnesty and the deceit they often employ to shield themselves from criticism. Cantor actually tried to sell himself in the primary as some sort of immovable object blocking the path to amnesty, a lie that pro-amnesty fanatic Luis Gutierrez was happy to support in the name of protecting Cantor. I’d like to think righties turned out in droves for Brat for that reason too, to send a message to Boehner, Rubio, and the rest that it’s time to stop farking lying about their intentions on immigration already.

And yet, and yet, if that was all that Cantor was up against, I think it would have been a close race. Brat still might have won but not by double digits. What turned this into a rout, I suspect, was the news over the past few weeks — loudly trumpeted by Drudge, Breitbart, and conservative talk radio — about young illegals from Central America crossing en masse over the Texas border. That was the rocket fuel, I’ll bet, that convinced even casual GOP amnesty skeptics in the district that Cantor’s and Obama’s efforts to legalize DREAMers were acting as a magnet at the border. If I were a voter in the district, I would have taken that news as smoking-gun proof that Brat was right and that sending Cantor back to the House would only make that magnet stronger and bigger. Via Breitbart, here’s Chuck Todd making the same point. That’s what turned this from a momentous upset into the surprise landslide of the century.

How much of Brat’s television ads that he ran in the last days of the campaign dealt with Cantor’s immigration stance? Something had to change things very quickly. Cantor didn’t become “disengaged with the district” at the last moment.

If I were a voter in the district, I would have taken that news as smoking-gun proof that Brat was right and that sending Cantor back to the House would only make that magnet stronger and bigger. Via Breitbart, here’s Chuck Todd making the same point. That’s what turned this from a momentous upset into the surprise landslide of the century.

I suppose this is plausible. It could explain the turnout surge for this election.

Central VA is slowly being over-run with illegal aliens. I don’t know why. A few years ago Prince William county (Manassass, Woodbridge) passed a law that denies any county funds from being given to illegal aliens. The effect was dramatic and virtually instantaneous.

Brat was just on Glenn Beck’s radio program. He said it wasn’t immigration so much as it was that Cantor was a terrible representative of his constituents. He said he knocked on thousands of doors over the past 6 months, and everyone whose door he knocked on said that DC was broken and Cantor was essentially part of the problem. So, no. Not immigration.

As someone here on the ground in the district, I’ll tell you it was not amnesty but rather the big picture establishment betrayal. Brat talked about term limits and that resonated. We don’t need more good politicians. We need good people.

There are a whole lot of people pushing amnesty, and that implies a whole lot of people invested in convincing us that it had nothing to do with Cantor losing. If people decide that’s why Cantor lost, then they’re watching their dream of amnesty evaporate. And they’ll say anything to keep the DREAM alive…..

How much of Brat’s television ads that he ran in the last days of the campaign dealt with Cantor’s immigration stance? Something had to change things very quickly. Cantor didn’t become “disengaged with the district” at the last moment.

Buddahpundit on June 11, 2014 at 11:35 AM

The key here is the surge in turnout. It was up 50% over the 2012 primary in this district. What drove that? I think you’re right that Cantor’s aloofness in the district isn’t a major factor. That didn’t bring in 50% more voters. Something else lit a fire under people’s a$$es.

Brat’s campaign really began to build steam when he started going after Cantor for his AMNESTY push. No one expected that Brat’s strategy would be as successful as it was.

Yes, Cantor had pretty much abandoned his district long ago, but in the last six months, Cantor became the public face of the obama/GOPe AMNESTY campaign, which really highlighted, in a very visible way, that Cantor was no longer interested in doing his job.

Central VA is slowly being over-run with illegal aliens. I don’t know why. A few years ago Prince William county (Manassass, Woodbridge) passed a law that denies any county funds from being given to illegal aliens. The effect was dramatic and virtually instantaneous.

How much of Brat’s television ads that he ran in the last days of the campaign dealt with Cantor’s immigration stance? Something had to change things very quickly. Cantor didn’t become “disengaged with the district” at the last moment.

Buddahpundit on June 11, 2014 at 11:35 AM

I think Obama’s manufactured illegal “youth” crisis on the border played a huge part in this.

I’m sure marching orders will be issued to the Obamedia to drop coverage of it ASAP.

Yes, he did lose because of immigration.
Even if you go the route that it was because he was out of touch with his district, that out of touch with his district was heavily shown to his constituents through his amnesty position.
The party is out of touch with the base on amnesty and immigration. WE DO NOT WANT IT. They are full bore stroking to shove it down our f&cking throats. He is the leader of the House Republicans. The house Republican leadership from Boehner on down have been looking for a final excuse to pull the trigger and shoot conservatives by creating tens of millions of new socialist voters.
So yes, Amnesty is likely worth about 25% of the points that cost Cantor his election.

Why the need for this thread after Ed already covered the same ground with his post earlier this morning which covers every single point raised here. Allah must be feeling pretty desperate over Cantor’s loss to spend this much effort to change the existing narrative which acknowledges the obvious reason for Cantor’s loss.

What turned this into a rout, I suspect, was the news over the past few weeks — loudly trumpeted by Drudge, Breitbart, and conservative talk radio — about young illegals from Central America crossing en masse over the Texas border. That was the rocket fuel, I’ll bet, that convinced even casual GOP amnesty skeptics in the district that Cantor’s and Obama’s efforts to legalize DREAMers were acting as a magnet at the border. If I were a voter in the district, I would have taken that news as smoking-gun proof that Brat was right and that sending Cantor back to the House would only make that magnet stronger and bigger. Via Breitbart, here’s Chuck Todd making the same point. That’s what turned this from a momentous upset into the surprise landslide of the century.

Brat was just on Glenn Beck’s radio program. He said it wasn’t immigration so much as it was that Cantor was a terrible representative of his constituents. He said he knocked on thousands of doors over the past 6 months, and everyone whose door he knocked on said that DC was broken and Cantor was essentially part of the problem. So, no. Not immigration.

Rufus Wilson on June 11, 2014 at 11:39 AM

I think you and AP are willfully misunderstanding the situation in trying to separate the two issues. When you can’t trust someone on the small decisions, how can you trust them with a big decision like immigration? Immigration was a big decision that Cantor WAS PUSHING.

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Brat said that while he’s received a ton of tea party support, he didn’t run as a tea partier. He supports Republican principles, and made it clear “the only problem with Republican principles is no one’s following them.”

Central VA is slowly being over-run with illegal aliens. I don’t know why. A few years ago Prince William county (Manassass, Woodbridge) passed a law that denies any county funds from being given to illegal aliens. The effect was dramatic and virtually instantaneous.

They migrated, once again, to Fauquier and Culpeper county.

BobMbx on June 11, 2014 at 11:38 AM

They arrived first in the northern counties, Arlington and Fairfax, and Alexandria city, beginning about 20 years ago. Those places have become too expensive for low wage workers and are built out. So they are spilling out into the cheaper exurbs and rural counties now. Prince William was wise to pass its law when it did.

The DC area economy is white-hot thanks to the flood of government dollars, and it’s a magnet for all people looking for work. Employers are only too happy to hire illegals, pay them below minimum wage and no benefits, and take their rent money. It’s hilarious knowing so many liberal homeowners in Arlington use cheap illegal laborers for their yard work, remodeling, and even nannying their kids.

Yep, amnesty…err “immigration reform”, played a huge part in it. And just to note on the terminology, everyone knows any “immigration reform” no matter the flavor, would evolve into another amnesty. It’s a fact. So stop parsing the meaning of the word “is”, mmmkay?

But the other factor that played a huge part in Cantor’s spanking, was the fact that Cantor, along with the rest of his GOPe buddies, have gotten into the habit of going against their constituents. Stabbing them and Conservatives in general, in the back, and pushing their progressive, big government agendas instead.

The voters were also fed up with Cantor and the rest of the GOPe refusing to fight against Obama and his Regime’s lawlessness.

People know there is only so much the Republicans can do against it, but they at least want to see some opposition, which has been completely absent from Cantor and the rest of the GOPe.

And frankly, we get the perception that Cantor and the GOPe isn’t too upset with that reality, which is another problem.

It was sure the deciding issue with me when I voted yesterday. And that was in spite of the four-page glossy mailer I got from Cantor last week that featured strong supposed quotes from him denouncing amnesty.

And that describes the average Republican in Washington: detached from the realities and challenges of everyday people.

Cantor lost because he forgot about who he served. And that’s not leadership, lobbyists, corporations or the party. It is the people who elected him.

He is, in essence the embodiment of what all average people, irrespective of party, paint as the average denizen of Washington. Uncaring, detached, lacking insight into the every day challenges of normal people and bowing only to issues which are important to Beltway occupants.

People are sick of it. And they are also sick of a party who seems to only muster some temerity when fighting against their own voters. They are the epitome of arrogant power that only fights for their own self interest.

Republican leadership would be wise to think very carefully about who they choose to succeed Cantor. Because the choice is bring the party together or descend into more internecine fighting.

Frankly, I have zero confidence Republican Leadership will even understand the significance of Cantor’s loss. Once their pollsters and tea leave readers come in, they will convince the resident leadership buffoons this was an isolated incident.

I think you and AP are willfully misunderstanding the situation in trying to separate the two issues. When you can’t trust someone on the small decisions, how can you trust them with a big decision like immigration? Immigration was a big decision that Cantor WAS PUSHING.

The problem was trust AND immigration. Cantor was failing on both.

dominigan on June 11, 2014 at 11:47 AM

I’m not willfully misunderstanding anything, and I don’t disagree with you that the problem is both trust and immigration. I’m merely communicating what I heard Brat say himself. The overwhelming issues amongst the voters he spoke with were DC’s brokenness and Cantor’s failure to represent his constituents. It wasn’t immigration. Since Brat was there and I have no reason to not believe him, I’ll defer to him on that assessment.

It was a lot of factors. First of all, the amnesty push by the House GOP(and yes, that’s what instant legal status would be) was huge. Second, the overflow of illegals coming across the border. Third, the disenchantment with the GOP leadership amongst the base. Fourth, Cantor’s a lousy retail politician. And fifth, Brat was a surprisingly good politician.

Why the need for this thread after Ed already covered the same ground with his post earlier this morning which covers every single point raised here. Allah must be feeling pretty desperate over Cantor’s loss to spend this much effort to change the existing narrative which acknowledges the obvious reason for Cantor’s loss.

Hot Air was virtually silent(oh geez I’m for amnesty and this might hurt its chances so I don’t want to write about this) on the human wave of illegal alien youth and it turned out to be an important component of Cantor’s defeat. As usual Drudge was right on it and that’s why he is the best.

I really love how the GOP Establishment and their media shills are busy spinning Cantor’s loss as anything but… AMNESTY. Yeah, right!

Let’s demolish the stupid arguments the amnesty proponents are using:

(1) Cantor was not in touch with his district

If Cantor’s aloofness from his district were a major problem, then Brat would have been leading the polls from the get-go. But the truth is, until recently, he was swamping Brat by almost 40 percentage points.

Can someone seriously argue that if Cantor hadn’t been the Majority Leader and pushing amnesty, he would be out today?

(2) Cantor is too chummy with lobbyists

Although this is true and an annoying factor, most in Cantor’s district wouldn’t have cared if he was right on the issues that mattered to them like…. (drum roll)… AMNESTY!

Brat’s campaign got a major lease of life because of one issue only… AMNESTY!

Cantor was kicked out because amnesty opponents wanted to send a message!

The GOP can spin all it wants and try to evade the message sent but they pass AMNESTY at their own peril.

I warned about this some months ago that AMNESTY is an issue that if the GOP plays with, they will get burned pretty badly! Brat’s win is just the start.

As for Cantor, people like Laura Ingraham and Mickey Kaus have been fighting the good fight on air and online for weeks in trying to drum up interest in his challenger, Dave Brat. For good reason: This race has, to some extent, become a referendum on amnesty, particularly Cantor’s enthusiasm for the sort of DREAM amnesty that’s now created a humanitarian crisis at the border. The better Brat does, the sterner the warning to House Republicans that an amnesty this summer could be painful this fall. Brat’s done a nice job making Cantor sweat, forcing him to spend more and fight dirtier — replete with a few well-placed bald-faced lies — than anyone expected. Realistically, though, an unknown candidate’s not beating the House majority leader in a primary. No undecided voter is going to forfeit the influence their district has in the House right now in order to roll the dice on Brat. The best we can hope for is a race that’s closer than expected, so that the GOP House caucus sits up and takes notice, but I think we’re going to end up disappointed here too. I’m guessing Cantor takes 65-70 percent, capping a glorious night for fans of immigration reform.

That the RINOs (delightful joy against Brit Hume and Dana Perino, how sweet it is) and Colmes lament the loss is pure delightful schadenfreude.

Schadenfreude on June 11, 2014 at 11:59 AM

The executives at FNC that run the news operation are also pro amnesty. Fox News Latino is no different than Univision. I used to send emails lambasting them for their pitiful coverage of the Senate immigration bill. If you know how a company’s email is structured(john.smith@ or jsmith@ for exampel) its pretty easy to send them a direct email they will personally view.

Central VA is slowly being over-run with illegal aliens. I don’t know why. A few years ago Prince William county (Manassass, Woodbridge) passed a law that denies any county funds from being given to illegal aliens. The effect was dramatic and virtually instantaneous.

BobMbx on June 11, 2014 at 11:38 AM

What part of the U.S. isn’t being overrun by illegal aliens? There are 115 million Mexicans and over 400 million people in Central America. If we maintain open borders (which is essentially what we currently have) and keep the entitlements coming, how long will it be before there are more aliens than citizens in the United States?

Yes! And it matters.If there had been one relatively known challenger to Miss Lindsey here in SC and talk radio attacked the bastard for his amnesty stance he would have gone down to defeat as well.The message to the GOP was clear in VA-support amnesty and if the grass roots is stirred up you will be beaten,The GOP will lay off amnesty now until after the midterms in November.

How hilarious is it that the public opinion-makers – none of whom came remotely within striking distance of guessing that Cantor would lose – are suddenly so clear about why he lost less than twenty-four hours after the shocking result?

Cantor actually tried to sell himself in the primary as some sort of immovable object blocking the path to amnesty, a lie that pro-amnesty fanatic Luis Gutierrez was happy to support in the name of protecting Cantor.

It’s probably been observed, but I haven’t seen it yet: This part of the post is the response to those who want to argue that Brat benefited from some Democratic operation chaos. Cantor was amnesty’s best friend. You can’t convince me that Dems wanted to take him out.

The overwhelming issues amongst the voters he spoke with were DC’s brokenness and Cantor’s failure to represent his constituents. It wasn’t immigration. Since Brat was there and I have no reason to not believe him, I’ll defer to him on that assessment.

Rufus Wilson on June 11, 2014 at 11:52 AM

I don’t dispute what you said but Brat himself is wrong on this one and failing to give credit to the issue that gave him the win.

If DC brokenness and Cantor’s failure to represent his constituents were the major issues, he would have lost by 40 percentage points!

It is AMNESTY and Ingraham’s stumping for him that led to Brat’s upset win. Not to mention conservative media (Talk radio, Brietbart, Drudge) effort on his behalf.

Regarding Chuck Todd’s remarks, is Richmond really “rural South”? I’m in Arlington, and, granted, it’s been a while since I’ve driven down that way, but I never thought of it that way. If anything I kind of thought of it as an extended part of the greater DC area. Any people from that district think differently?

Regarding Chuck Todd’s remarks, is Richmond really “rural South”? I’m in Arlington, and, granted, it’s been a while since I’ve driven down that way, but I never thought of it that way. If anything I kind of thought of it as an extended part of the greater DC area. Any people from that district think differently?

Cantor started out good when he was first elected. Then turned left. He hung around with other encumbants and thought he was safe.
Glad to see him go. Now, if Va would get smart on its two rubber stamp demorat senators….. Of course that would mean the local Repub party would have find a viable condidate….

The executives at FNC that run the news operation are also pro amnesty. Fox News Latino is no different than Univision. I used to send emails lambasting them for their pitiful coverage of the Senate immigration bill. If you know how a company’s email is structured(john.smith@ or jsmith@ for exampel) its pretty easy to send them a direct email they will personally view.

Wigglesworth on June 11, 2014 at 12:02 PM

FNC has back-stabbed conservatives just like the RINOs have. It’s amazing how many gullible people swear that FNC is conservative.

About 72 percent of registered voters in Cantor’s district polled on Tuesday said they either “strongly” or “somewhat” support immigration reform that would secure the borders, block employers from hiring those here illegally, and allow undocumented residents without criminal backgrounds to gain legal status – three key tenets of an overhaul, according to a poll by the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the liberal advocacy group Americans United for Change.

They support it but that’s not what would be put in place. I don’t know why this poll is even mentioned without saying that they wouldn’t support what the pols, the Chamber and big employers want.

Interesting that just three days ago there was almost universal concensus among pundits, pols and spokespersons that this election was a referendum on immigration reform and that the level of Cantor’s “margin of victory” would be a bellweather for the chance of immigration reform in the house this year. Further, Cantor spent the last week desperately trying to establilsh his conservative bone fides on immigration reform. I didnt’ hear him addressing any of the issues which are now being raised as the “real” reason for his defeat.

Regarding Chuck Todd’s remarks, is Richmond really “rural South”? I’m in Arlington, and, granted, it’s been a while since I’ve driven down that way, but I never thought of it that way. If anything I kind of thought of it as an extended part of the greater DC area. Any people from that district think differently?

WhatSlushfund on June 11, 2014 at 12:09 PM

Richmond is hardly the rural south. Chuck Todd says whatever he thinks will help the Democrats.

Rush just predicted that this would be the GOP spin, -that this was not really about amnesty.

BTW, PPP (Piss-Poor Polling) is one of the least reliable and the most progressively-biased pollsters. I take their data as more like ‘inside information on what the Democratics want us to think’ than what the public thinks.