Flash Gordon Left Me The Keys

The TEST OF ALL MOTHERS

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Target Iran - Countdown Timeline

The Bush Administration has almost certainly not approved the timing of military operations against Iran, and consequently any projection of the probable timing of such operations is neccessarily speculative. The election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad as Iran's new president would appear to preclude a negotiated resolution of Iran's nuclear program. The success of strikes against Iran's WMD facilities requires both tactical and strategic surprise, so there will not be the sort of public rhetorical buildup in the weeks preceeding hostilities, of the sort that preceeded the invasion of Iraq. To the contrary, the Bush Administration will do everything within its power to deceive Iran's leaders into believing that military action is not imminent.2001The Coalition for Democracy in Iran was formed in 2001 to mobilize the efforts of a variety of groups and individuals across the United States supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for freedom, democracy and respect for human rights in Iran. The CDI strongly supports President Bush's designation of Iran as part of the deadly "axis of evil." Michael Ledeen [of the American Enterprise Institute], Morris Amitay [a former director of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC], and James Woolsley [former CIA director] formed the Coalition for Democracy in Iran, which has strong ties to the exiled Reza Pahlavi, the deceased shah's son.29 January 2002In his first State of the Union address, President Bush named three countries that he said continue to sponsor terror: North Korea, Iran and Iraq. He called them and their terrorist allies "an axis of evil," and said the price of indifference to them would be "catastrophic." He also warned that the country cannot afford to delay in further responding to the terrorist threat. "Time is not on our side," he said. "I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer."01 June 2002Speaking to the graduating class at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, President Bush said "Containment is not possible when unbalanced dictators with weapons of mass destruction can deliver those weapons on missiles or secretly provide them to terrorist allies.... We have our best chance since the rise of the nation state in the 17th century to build a world where the great powers compete in peace instead of prepare for war.... America has, and intends to keep, military strengths beyond challenge, thereby making the destabilizing arms races of other eras pointless, and limiting rivalries to trade and other pursuits of peace."20 May 2003Senator Sam Brownback introduced the Iran Democracy Act, asking for $50 million to fund opposition groups dedicated to the overthrow of the Islamic regime. The Iran Democracy Act would provide funds for pro-democracy broadcasting into Iran, would reform radio Farda to make it more effective, and would state that it is the policy of the United States to support transparent, full democracy in Iran; to support an internationally-monitored referendum in Iran by which the Iranian people can peacefully change the system of government in Iran.02 June 2003The United States and its allies expressed concern at the Evian G-8 Summit about Iran's covert nuclear weapons program, stating that "we will not ignore proliferation implications of Iran's advanced nuclear program" and that "we offer our strongest support to comprehensive IAEA examination of this country's nuclear program."10 June 2003California Democrat Brad Sherman is set to introduce a bill in the House of Representatives that would serve as a counterpart to Senator Brownback’s Iran Democracy Act, which will allocate approximately $57 million to Iranian opposition groups and satellite TVs. Sherman’s bill, however, will also slap new sanctions on Iran, a “total” embargo” in order to “encourage the people of Iran to bring about a more peaceful and democratic government,”June 2003As of June 2003 a new national security presidential directive on Iran had gone through several competing drafts, but had yet to be approved by President Bush.16 June 2003The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) report on Iran has been given out to IAEA members prior to the IAEA Board of Governors meeting which begins June 16.3 July 2003Officials say Israel will destroy Natanz plant if Iran operates it Mark Hibbs Nucleonics Week, July 3, 200312 February 2004On February 12, the Senate passed an important resolution, S. Res. 304, that was submitted that same day by Senator Brownback. Denouncing the elections as harmful for true democratic forces in Iran, the resolution stated that the policy of the United States should be to advocate a democratic government in Iran that will restore freedom to the people of Iran, abandon terrorism, protect human rights, and live in peace and security with the international community.08 March 2004On 26 November 2003 the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board requested the Director General to submit a comprehensive report on the implementation of the resolution on Iran by mid- February 2004, for consideration by the 08 March 2004 Board of Governors, or to report earlier if appropriate.06 May 2004The House passed H.CON.RES.398, which was introduced by HIRC Chairman Henry Hyde (R-IL) on March 25. It expresses “the concern of Congress over Iran’s development of the means to produce nuclear weapons,” and was passed under “suspension of the rules” on 06 May 2004. The final tally was 376 for the resolution, three against, 14 answering “present,” and 40 not voting. Opponents of this concurrent resolution charged that it led the country down the road to war against Iran. This resolution demands that Iran immediately cease all efforts to acquire nuclear enrichment activities and calls for the country to honor its stated commitments to grant IAEA inspectors unrestricted access to nuclear sites. But the resolution also calls upon all state parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty--including the United States--to use ``all appropriate means to deter, dissuade, and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.'' It also "calls on the President to use all appropriate means to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons..." Even if this bill doesn't authorize the use of force against Iran, it creates a precedent for future escalation, as did similar legislation endorsing ``regime change'' in Iraq back in 1998. This legislation called for yet more and stricter sanctions on Iran , including a demand that other countries also impose sanctions on Iran. Critics charged that sanctions were unmistakably a move toward war, particularly when, as in this legislation, a demand is made that the other nations of the world similarly isolate and blockade the country.15 July 2004On 15 July 2004 William S. Lind suggested that "an American-Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Such an attack may very well be on the agenda as the "October Surprise," the distraction President George W. Bush desperately needs if the debacle in Iraq is not to lead to his defeat in November."22 July 2004Another concurrent resolution (S.CON.RES.81 calls upon all states party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), including the United States, to use appropriate means to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, was passed/agreed to in the Senate on 22 July 2004. This slightly less inflamatory bill was accepted by the House in conference, replacing the more inflamatory language of H.CON.RES.398.25 July 2004Iranian Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi said in the northeastern city of Gorgan on 25 July 2004 that there is a "weak" possibility that archfoe Israel will attack Iran, Fars News Agency reported the same day. "Still, Iran has thought of the measures needed to repulse all attacks," he said. Separately, the head of the Iranian regular army's land forces, Brigadier General Nasir Mohammadifar, said in Mashhad in northeastern Iran on 25 July, "America would have attacked Iran by now if it were sure it could defeat us." Mohammadifar told a gathering of army inspectors that the United States is "intensely aware" of its "absolute" inability to attack Iran.17 August 2004Brig. Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, the deputy chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards, said in a statement issued 17 August 2004, "If Israel fires a missile into the Bushehr nuclear power plant, it has to say goodbye forever to its Dimona nuclear facility, where it produces and stockpiles nuclear weapons." The head of the Revolutionary Guards' political bureau, Yadollah Javani, said said in a separate statement that "All the territory under the control of the Zionist regime, including its nuclear facilities, are within the range of Iran's advanced missiles."20 August 2004Iran might launch pre-emptive strikes to protect its nuclear facilities if they are threatened, Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani said in remarks broadcast on 20 August 2004. "We won't sit with our hands tied and wait until someone does something to us," Shamkhani told Arabic channel Al Jazeera when asked what Iran would do if the United States or Israel attacked its atomic facilities. "Some military leaders in Iran are convinced that the pre-emptive measures that America is talking about are not their right alone," he added in Persian. "Any strike on our nuclear facilities will be regarded as a strike on Iran and we will respond with all our might."13 September 2004The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will consider Iran's nuclear efforts during the IAEA Board meeting scheduled for 13 September in Vienna, Austria. The US may resort to the United Nations Security Council in an attempt to impose sanctions on Iran. The IAEA Board of Governors may report Iran's noncompliance to the United Nations Security Council, and the Security Council may take action under Articles 39 through 41 of the United Nations Charter to encourage or order Iran to cease its programs that would contribute to building a nuclear weapons capability. From 20-24 September 2004 the 48th Regular Session of the IAEA General Conference meets in Vienna, Austria.02 November 2004John Kerry's position is that "A nuclear armed Iran is an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States and our allies in the region. While we have been preoccupied in Iraq, Iran has reportedly been moving ahead with its nuclear program. We can no longer sit on the sidelines and leave the negotiations to the Europeans. It is critical that we work with our allies to resolve these issues and lead a global effort to prevent Iran from obtaining the technology necessary to build nuclear weapons. Iran claims that its nuclear program is only to meet its domestic energy needs. John Kerry's proposal would call their bluff by organizing a group of states to offer Iran the nuclear fuel they need for peaceful purposes and take back the spent fuel so they cannot divert it to build a weapon. If Iran does not accept this offer, their true motivations will be clear. Under the current circumstances, John Kerry believes we should support the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) efforts to discern the full extent of Iran's nuclear program, while pushing Iran to agree to a verifiable and permanent suspension of its enrichment and reprocessing programs. If this process fails, we must lead the effort to ensure that the IAEA takes this issue to the Security Council for action."December 2004Sightings of unidentified flying objects in Iranian skies increased in late December 2004. There were sightings in Markazi Province (where Tehran is located) and Bushehr Province (where nuclear reactors are being built). Sightings in Isfahan Province occurred near Arak and Natanz (where other nuclear-related facilities are located). Observers suggested these could be military-reconnaissance aircraft. US combat aircraft allegedly were sighted near Khorramshahr on 29 December and again on 30 December 2004. An anonymous informed source said, "The circling of two American fighter planes on Wednesday and their maneuvers over border areas of Iran and Iraq indicated that the planes were involved in spying." It is not clear if the Iranian antiaircraft units were able to react to the alleged violation of their airspace.01 January 2005A US warplane reportedly violated Iranian air space, this time a border edge near Afghanistan in the eastern province of Razavi Khorassan, in the latest spate of such overflights reported by the press. According to the evening daily Kayhan, an American fighter entered Iranian air space Thursday night, flying over the southern border strip at Iran`s Mousa-Abad region for several minutes. The US warplane flew back to Afghanistan, from where it had entered the Iranian airspace, the paper added. Kayhan further quoted an unknown source as saying that three US warplanes had again violated Iranian air space in the southwestern cities of Khorramshahr and Abadan near the Iraqi border.23 June 2005Iran's ninth presidential election took place on 17 June 2005, with the runoff election taking place on 24 June 2005. Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad was elected as Iran's president. Ahmadinejad's campaign issued a statement which described Iran's nuclear program as "a flood which cannot be stopped by a match stick ... It's impossible to stop a nation's scientific progress with a bunch of irrelevant words ... We will hold talks from a rational point of view and if they accept our legitimate right we'll cooperate ... The analysts say no country, no matter how powerful they are, can attack Iran. It would be suicidal for a country to attack Iran... so we must not bend to threats."13 August 2005On 13 August 2005 President Bush once again refused to rule out the use of force against Iran. When asked in an interview with Israeli television if the use of force was an alternative if diplomacy failed, Bush said: "All options are on the table. ... The use of force is the last option for any president. You know we have used force in the recent past to secure our country... I have been willing to do so as a last resort in order to secure the country and provide the opportunity for people to live in free societies ... we want diplomacy to work and so we are working feverishly on the diplomatic route and, you know, we will see if we are successful or not. As you know I'm sceptical ... "23 September 2006The first day of Ramadan is 23 September 2006, and the last day is 22 October 2006.7 November 2006The US Congressional elections of 2006 was held on Tuesday, November 7, 2006. It is unclear how the United States election cycle would influence the timing of strikes against Iran. With the passing of the election, risk averse domestic political inhibitions about the uncertain consequences of striking Iran might be greatly diminished.23 December 2006Determined to give effect to its unmet 31 July 2006 demand that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, on 23 December 2006 the Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran, blocking the import or export of sensitive nuclear materiel and equipment and freezing the financial assets of persons or entities supporting its proliferation sensitive nuclear activities or the development of nuclear-weapon delivery systems. Unanimously adopting resolution 1737 (2006) under Article 41 of the Charter's Chapter VII, the Council decided that Iran should, without further delay, suspend proliferation sensitive nuclear activities. The Council requested a report within 60 days from the Director General of IAEA on whether Iran had established full and sustained suspension of all activities.2006Some analysts predicted that Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon as early as 2006. As of mid-2003 the CIA reportedly assessed that Iran was two or three years away from developing nuclear weapons. IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei told Der Spiegel 21 February 2005 that if Iran was determined to have nuclear weapons - as the US believes it is - it was “likely to have a bomb in two or three years”. These estimates would seem rather pessimistic. A more realistic date would seem to be around 2010. 01 February 2007The year 2007 begins to mark the closing of the window of opportunity for military strkes against Iran.CBS News reported on 18 December 2006 that the Bush administration has decided to ramp up the naval presence in the Persian Gulf to send a message to Tehran. CBS reported that an additional aircraft carrier would be added to the Gulf contingent in January 2007, arriving on station around 01 February 2007. The New York Times reported 20 December 2006 that the Bremerton-based aircraft carrier CVN-74 John C. Stennis and its strike group could leave weeks earlier than planned as part of a move to increase the U.S. military presence in and around the Middle East. Moving up the Stennis’ departure date in January 2006 allows a longer overlap with USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, the carrier currently in the Persian Gulf. Eisenhower deployed 01 October 2006, and could remain on station into March 2007. It is difficult for one Carrier Air Wing [CVW] to conduct flight operations for much more than about 12 hours before having to stop. However, with the combined striking power of two CVWs, the Carrier Task Force (CTF) is able to conduct air operations over a continuous 24-hour cycle.If the White House is politically risk averse with reference to striking Iran, striking Iran as early as February 2007 would allow the maximum time betweeenr the strikes and the 2008 Presidential election.1-11 February 2007 - Ten-Day DawnThe 10 Day Dawn (Daheh-ye Fajr) celebrations mark anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. On 12th of Bahman 1357 (01 February 1979), the Imam Khomeini appeared in Iran on the steps of an Air France plane. The great crowd of people who had gone to welcome their Imam were waiting at Mehrabad airport and along his way to Behesht-e Zahra Cemetery. They desired to meet their leader whom was returning to his homeland after a 15-year exile forced by the Shah’s regime. The whole city was illuminated and strewn with flowers. The Islamic Revolution gained the victory on 11 Febreary 1979. The Ten Day Dawn marks the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 and is celebrated by Iranians each year.On 14 November 2006 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that two major technological achievements of the government will be made public during the Ten-Day Dawn (February 1-11) of 2007. He said this year's Ten-Day Dawn will the ten-day celebration of Iranian nation for its nuclear and technological achievements. "This year's Ten-Day Dawn period will mark the Iranian nation's success in mastering fuel cycle as well as its achievements in other fields," Ahmadinejad said. He said Iran possesses the “full nuclear fuel cycle and time is completely running in our favor in terms of diplomacy.” Further, “We will commission some 3,000 centrifuges by [the Ten-Day Dawn festivities at the beginning of February].” On 18 Decenber 2006 Government Spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham said that Iran will be announced as an established nuclear state during the 2007 Ten Day Dawn ceremonies. 21 February 2007The UN Security Council's 60-day deadline for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment runs out on 21 February 2007, paving the way for further sanctions in addition to those imposed by a resolution in December 2006.21 February 2007Stennis arrived in the Gulf of Oman, after a voyage of about 30 days.March 2007On 26 September 2006 Iran and Russia signed an agreement under which Russia will ship fuel to a nuclear power plant it is building in Iran by March 2007. The agreement was signed by Sergei Shmatko, head of Russia’s state-run company Atomstroiexport, and Mahmoud Hanatian, vice president of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. The document provides for supplying Russian fuel for the atomic energy plant in March, physical start-up in September 2007 and electric generation by November 2007. About 80 tons of fuel would be supplied by Russia for Iran. This transfer is on hold, as a result of the 23 December 2006 Security Council resolution on Iran.On 12 November 2006 Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran intended to install 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges by March 2007. Hosseini said Iran was doing all the work to install the centrifuges under control of the UN nuclear watchdog, adding that two cascades of 164 centrifuges were already in operation in the country. The 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges would give Iran the capability of producing enough Highly Enriched Uranium for about one atomic bomb annually.Either one of these events might be regarded as a "Red Line" by either Israel and/or the United States. That both would take place nearly simultaneously would seem to significantly raise the probability of strkes against Iran's WMD facilities in this timeframe.5-9 March 2007UN Security Council is not expected to take action on Iran before the meeting of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors from 5-9 March 2007.July 2007Gordon Brown, who represents a district in Scotland, will replace Tony Blair as Prime Minister of the UK sometime in July 2007. While Blair might be expected to authorize the use of Diego Garcia for staging US strikes against Iran, Brown probably would not.August 2007Monday, September 3rd is Labor Day 2007, the notional beginning of the 2008 Presidential campaign. If the White House is politically risk averse with reference to striking Iran, the weeks before Labor Day might mark the last opportune moment to do the deed before the Presidential campaign gets under way.4 November 2008The US presidential election of 2008 is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. If the White House judges that military strikes would rally the country around the President and his party, it would argue for timing strikes as little as a week before the election, a pre-planned October Surprise.20 January 2009The new President is innaugurated. Depending on political calculation, a final window of opportunity to strike Iran opens during the transition from the old President the new. If Bush judged that his incoming successor lacked the resolve to take the neccessary action, or if it were judged that blaming Bush would ease the way of the new President, there might be arguments for striking after the election but before the innauguration.31 December 2009If strikes have not occured by January 2009, the new President will have some months to decide on a course of action. If strikes have not occured by the end of 2009, American policy will have shifted from saying the Atomic Ayatollahs are unacceptable, to accepting them as an accomplished fact.