Discussion for Thursday

THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE PORTRAYS A CONTINUATION OF THE PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD. THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OH/TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A ADVECTION FREEZE MOST INLAND AREAS AS NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN COLDER AIR. WITH WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND LARGE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS...FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 50S. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RADIATION FREEZE AREA-WIDE. GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...WITH THE MET FORECASTING 23 AND MAV 20 AT TLH. NOT CONVINCED IT WILL GET AS LOW AS THE MAV IS ADVERTISING...BUT WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MET. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR A HARD FREEZE WILL BE ACROSS THE INLAND FL BIG BEND AND SRN TIER GA ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10...U.S. HIGHWAY 27 AND 84 CORRIDORS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S. CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY GA TO PANAMA CITY FL. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH MILDER COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE 30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

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