Environmental Protection Agency figures released today show that Ireland is unlikely to meet its 2020 EU greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and cast doubts over efforts to transition to a low carbon economy in the long term.

While there is overachievement of annual obligations in the early years of the compliance period (2013-2020), this will not be sufficient to allow Ireland to cumulatively meet its compliance obligations. Ireland is expected to breach annual obligation targets in 2016 or 2017, depending on the level of implementation of emission reduction policies and measures;

Full implementation of policies and measures out to 2020, including current targets for energy efficiency in our homes and businesses and increasing renewable fuel use in transport and heating, will not be sufficient to meet 2020 emission reduction targets;

Agriculture and transport are projected to account for 76% of Ireland’s non-ETS sector emissions in 2020 (agriculture (47%), transport (29%)). For the period 2014-2020, agriculture emissions are projected to increase by 6 – 7%. Transport emissions are projected to show strong growth over the period to 2020 with a 10 – 16% increase on 2014 levels.

New obligations for Ireland to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the years 2021-2030 are being negotiated at EU level in 2016. The further away Ireland is from the 20% reduction target in 2020, the more difficult the compliance challenges in the following decade are likely to become.

Commenting on the figures, Laura Burke, EPA Director General, said:
“Ireland’s economy is beginning to grow again and we must balance our focus on growth with a focus on becoming more sustainable and reducing emissions. The adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in December provides an ambitious, legally binding framework for global action on Climate Change. In addition Ireland has taken a national policy position that commits us to reducing our carbon emissions by 80 per cent in 2050 on 1990 levels across the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors while achieving carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land use sectors.

However EPA projections indicate that we face considerable challenges to become a low carbon economy. Ireland must follow a pathway to decarbonising energy, transport and heating. We must break our dependence on fossil energy infrastructures. In addition the agriculture, forestry and land use sectors should achieve effective greenhouse gas emissions neutrality by 2050. This will take planning, investment and time but can be achieved in the overall framework of national, EU and global commitments.”

Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections to 2020 – An update is available on the EPA website.