Sunday at 1:00pm on CBS there is a very important game going down in the AFC South division when the Tennessee Titans travel into Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are on the outside looking in at the division lead which Houston has a hold of, but the race is tight and there is a lot of football left to be played in 2016. A win this weekend would be a great boost moving forward, while another inner division loss could sting and considerably put the loser behind the 8-ball for the rest of the year.

Indianapolis is a three point home favorite over Tennessee while the total points are set at 52 combined. Much of the public is on the Titans to get the road cover and I feel much of the love being thrown their way is due to the game they just played against the Green Bay Packers last week. Tennessee handled business in a big way giving Aaron Rogers and the Packers one of the worst losses they have had in sometime when the Titans won 47-25. It was a dominant performance but could a win like that be cause for a major let down this week?

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For the last two seasons, the Colts have been very high on my list in the AFC. I really thought Andrew Luck was the next big thing and I put a lot of faith in the Colts to make runs towards a Super Bowl. I have been wrong…so far. The Colts are a mediocre 4-5 on the season, they are 2-2 at home and against the spread they are 4-4-1. This team is the epitome of mediocre. So far in 2016, the Colts are statistically average as well. They are ranked 23rd in rushing, 29th in points allowed (which is much of the reason they are not leading the AFC South), and 12th in passing yards. However, the Colts have been able to score a good amount. Indy is ranked 6th in the NFL in scoring, averaging right at 26 points per contest. This weekend though, the defense must come to play. Tennessee QB, Marcus Mariota is coming along nicely but we got to remember it is still his 2nd year in the NFL and there is some learning to be done. The Colts defense cannot let him sit comfortable and pick them apart. If they do, it could be a bad bad day for Indianapolis and any dream they have of being a playoff team could be taken away from them. On offense, they need to just do what they do. Score points. Tennessee does not have a stout defense. They are giving up a little over 25 per game and if the Colts can be the aggressor and control the tempo of this one, it could be a very good day for Andrew Luck and Company.

Tennessee is looking to be improving. They are a young team that can be seen making strides to becoming a legit AFC South contender in the next year or so. This year, they ranked 8th in the NFL in scoring, but just like Indianapolis, they lack the defense. The Titans are allowing 25 points a game and against an offense like this, that is not good. Tennessee needs to use their run game which is led by DeMarco Murray to control the tempo of this one. The Titans do not want to let this game become an offensive shootout. Murray and the Titans have the NFL’s 3rd best rushing offense and this needs to be used to their advantage to not only control the tempo of this game, but to take some pressure off Marcus Mariota. If Tennessee can keep this game in the low to mid 20’s I think they win…not just cover the three.

I sense this is going to be one of those games that comes down to the very end. If I were a betting man, which I am, I would lay off this one. I will not touch this game with a ten foot pole because I seriously have no idea what is going to happen. I could see this thing ending a number of ways including a push with a Colts last second field goal. However, my job is not to tell you which games to take and not to, my job is to pick you a winner. Therefore, if I were forced to place a wager on this one, I would just take the Colts at home. I think on paper they are the better team with the more experienced QB. I also like the fact that Tennessee is coming off their biggest win in years and this is a great time for a hangover. I think the Colts come out on top 24-20 in this one and get the cover at home and stays alive in the AFC South race.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Colts -3 at home

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