PB (11/7): What a "Bettor Better Know" - NFL Week #9

What a ‘Bettor Better Know’ - NFL Week #9; it is getting late rather early for many teams around the league...

Point Blank – November 7, 2017

This has been a rather unique NFL season, beginning with the charting here of how far the offenses had fallen, not enough quality QBs and OL at the start of the campaign, and now we are measuring the consequences as those already limited numbers get depleted. But as the midway point is here we ain’t seen nothing yet.

The closing stretch to the 2017 NFL campaign will bring even more challenges than the struggling offenses did because it becomes much like weighing college teams in their late-season games. It used to be a rule of thumb in the NFL that because the schedules only brought 16 games the majority of teams went hard the entire way, but that is likely not the case this time, concentration levels drifting across the league.

As the weekly Tuesday review takes place I am going to extend the opening take a bit, because for once the NFL looks like the NCAA down the stretch. We didn’t have to worry much about teams going all out in the past, but the 2017 closing act will take a much different path before the curtain drops.

Item: It has gotten late early for several NFL franchisesSub-Items: Have the Giants tuned out Spags as well; Why we may not see Jimmy Garropolo soon; Why we shouldn’t see Jameis Winston soon; A savage plot twist for the Texans; Will The Pack pack it in…

This isn’t week 15 or 16, when teams out of contention can be excused for losing focus, we are only midway through, and I shudder to think about what the final two weeks could be like for this particular season because those Sunday’s fall on Christmas and New Year’s, when it becomes even easier for concentration to drift. But let’s begin putting out some warning signals at various places that tell us to be quick on our feet, and to be looking to measure the pulse of some of the teams as much as their base statistics.

NY GIANTS: There isn’t much new to be written about Ben McAdoo and his Denny’s menu that long-term readers have not sifted through, but perhaps the most fitting sequence of his closing act came in the Sunday post-game.

But while a couple of weeks ago I thought it would have been a natural move for the Giants to fire McAdoo now, and let Steve Spagnuolo take over the remainder of the season as an audition for the full-time job, the lack of effort from the defense in Sunday’s abysmal loss to the Rams raises questions about whether he still has his huddle willing to compete.

The Giants were the most improved defensive team in the league in 2016, yet are on the verge of having the biggest decline this season. For perspective, let’s look at Yards Per Play, Yards Per Rush, and Passer Rating:

Season YPP YPR PR2016 5.1 3.6 75.82017 5.8 4.2 101.0

I had previously thought that elevating Spags might at least keep the team competing, instead of this becoming a completely lost season. That requires some further study.

SAN FRANCISCO: My running theme with the 49ers has been that Kyle Shanahan is under less pressure to produce in the standings than any coach in the league this season, even an 0-16 not a huge blight if they believe the pieces are in place for a build-out in 2018. Jimmy Garropolo may indeed be one of those pieces, but there is a realistic prospect that we may not see him until next season. Why wouldn’t Shanahan at least try to get him into play now, to begin building the offense and perhaps even win a couple of games? The picture can tell the story.

C.J. Beathard took 16 hits against the Cardinals, and was sacked five times. Is Shanahan going to risk his QB of the future behind this OL any time soon? After Sunday’s loss he said that putting him out there would be an “unfair position”, following up with: ”I’d love to get Jimmy in eventually, but a lot of stuff factors into it. Hopefully we can get healthy and give Jimmy a chance to pick this up as we do.”

Naturally this is not a team out looking to play their best every week, but merely to play out the schedule and head to the future.

TAMPA BAY: This season began with high expectations for the Bucs but those hopes are gone, and after James Winston underwent an MRI on his shoulder on Monday they have announced that he will miss at least the next two games. Might it be better if the team simply shut him down for the season? Yes, except there is the plot twist of Dirk Koetter also coaching for his job as well.

I have rated Koetter much like McAdoo, someone that was promoted to HC before he had truly proven that he could be an offensive coordinator at this level, and he will be under an even brighter spotlight with the decision process ahead. Because of Winston’s value to the franchise, should he even have been out there against the Saints on Sunday?

Players sense lame-duck coaching situations as they are unfolding, which can lead to a drift in energy. Could that be happening in Houston as well?

HOUSTON: The Texans have a strong foundation for the future, but they can’t build on it because the foundation itself is missing for the rest of 2017, Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt sidelined, along with some other key cogs on defense. The problem getting through the second half of the campaign is that the gap between Watson and Tom Savage is so wide, and it goes beyond physical abilities. Watson brought an energy to the team that created the motivation for other players to go harder; when those same players see the limitations that Savage brings on the practice field during the week, the energy dissipates before they even get to Sunday (there is a similar problem in Denver, which I will get to in a moment).

Savage has an unsightly 66.5 Passer Rating though his 57 attempts, and has been sacked on 13.6 percent of them, fumbling four times and losing three. Even with Watson’s mobility he was getting sacked at an 8.5 percent clip behind that Duane Brown-less OL, so there isn’t much that Bill O’Brien can do to work around the limitations. One of the key focus points for me will be on the relationship of O’Brien with management – if the Texans feel that he is the proper HC to develop Watson in the future, then the pressure on the remainder of 2017 subsides; if not he may find himself under the same classification as Koetter.

GREEN BAY: The 49ers know on the practice field they aren’t going to win with Beathard. The Buccaneers know that with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the Texans with Savage. I thought that the Packers might have had those same inclinations with Brett Hundley, but needed to see them take the field with ample time to prepare a game plan for him first. Might there have been something they could build an offense around?

The answer was no. There were a few read-option plays to take advantage of his mobility, but for most of the night vs. Detroit it was a moribund attack, a couple of back-door drives making the final production counts look much better than they needed to be.

The Packers haven’t missed the playoffs since 2008. As such, they are another team in which gauging their mental state for the second half of the campaign means more than scores and statistics; this is a whole new ballgame for a crew that relied on Aaron Rodgers so much in the past, and now lack other ways to step up (Bryan Bulaga being lost for the season another blow they did not need).

Item: They are calling it #Sacksonville for a reasonSub-Item: Yes, this is what the AJ Green-less Bengals look like

At the opposite end of the energy/intensity spectrum is what is going on in Jacksonville, the Jaguars not just winning, but doing it in ways that are turning the second half of some of their games into submissions by the opposition – white flags are being waved against the defense.

The numbers demand attention. Let’s look at their Passer Rating allowed and Sack% through the first half of the schedule, and compare them to the NFL’s full-season leaders over each of the last five seasons:

There has been some outstanding defense in play, and when leads have been built the games have broken open, all five of the Jacksonville wins coming by 16 points or more. There is naturally a swagger that comes not just from winning big, but from winning via physically dominating opponents, and while the defensive front is getting much of the praise, well-deserved of course, here is something from CB Aaron Colvin that made the files: “We keep trying to tell y’all: There isn’t no secondary out there that’s better than us. We’re trying to show y’all. Eventually everybody will catch on.”

There was a flip side on Sunday, of course, that played a significant part. The struggling Bengal OL has been written about here multiple times, and the imagination would often drift to “I wonder what would happen if they didn’t have A.J. Green on the field”. We saw just how ugly it could be, 20 second half snaps without him only generating 23 yards.

Cincinnati is on the road the next two weeks, and from a confidence standpoint consider this – in their last two road games the Bengals have managed only 42 yards in 41 second-half plays. But at least their defense might be able to keep them in the game this week because…

Item: The 2017 Tennessee offense looks like the 2016 Tennessee offense, albeit a slightly lesser version

A prime focus when breaking down the Titans here during our pre-season tour was in Mike Mullarkey believing that the final pieces of the personnel puzzle had been fitted on offense, so they were going to open up the playbook and allow Marcus Mariota to call more audibles. With the right pieces in the right places, you do have options, don’t you?

And so where is the Tennessee offense at the mid-point in the season? A disappointing step behind 2016, not an advancement. Yes the Matt Cassel cycles need to be filtered out, but the Titans have seen their yards per rush decline from 4.6 to 4.3, and Mariota’s passer rating has fallen from 95.6 to 85.4.

The Titans have managed to turn that into a 5-3, but what intrigued me about their post-game comments after edging Baltimore is that they have an awareness that they are not playing as well as they had hoped, despite the record. You can do a lot of reading between the lines from what Mullarkey said after Sunday’s win: “I would say it’s the bottom line, wouldn’t you? Winning, the bottom line. That’s what you go out there for three hours and pound each other’s brains in for, is who’s going to win in the end, no matter how it happens.”

And from LT Taylor Lewan - “This is just a win – that’s the way it works in the NFL. They don’t have asterisks. I don’t think they have accolades or anything around it. A ‘W’ is a ‘W’ and an ‘L’ is an ‘L’ and today we got a ‘W.’ That’s all that matters.”

That isn’t all that matters, of course, and the Titans are showing a self-awareness on that front.

Item: The Panthers playbook shrunk without Kelvin Benjamin, but they won anywaySub-Item: Atlanta continues to be sub-optimal

Another offense that was under the microscope was that of Carolina, the Panthers making public statements last week that part of the reason for trading Kelvin Benjamin was that they needed to open things up. But much like Tennessee’s “W” vs. the Ravens, Carolina’s Sunday triumph registered on the scoreboard, but came up short in a lot of areas.

How wide open was the playbook? Only three different players caught a pass, and for the fourth straight game Cam Newton was the leading rusher, 86 yards on nine attempts, with not all of them being planned runs. It was something they needed on Sunday to escape by three points, and it may be something they need going forward, because after nine full games these counts are awful:

When was the last time a team was nine games deep into a season and didn’t have a single RB gaining at least 3.0 per carry? The Panthers are aware of their problems, which means the need for Newton to run, but OC Mike Shula is aware of what that can also mean - “He probably would want to run it more. I don’t want to ask him. I know the answer. It is part of his game. So to take that away, I think you’re taking a piece of him and a piece of his game away. That’s a delicate balance.”

The Panthers are at least finding a way to maximize limited pieces; for Atlanta it continues to be the flip side. The Falcons had another game in which the pieces to the puzzle were there, the offense gaining 6.1 yards per play, even with that one major drop by Julio Jones not adding what should have been more, but the scoreboard production was meagre. It was once again a case of not maximizing, and for one of the most striking counts of any team at the 2017 mid-point, consider this:

For the second straight season Atlanta is leading the NFL in net yards per play. The talent is there, but whereas it was maximized in that run to the Super Bowl, far too many points are being left on the scoreboard this time.

Item: What now for the Denver Defense

I was tempted to put Denver in the opening segment this week, with those other teams that may struggle for an identity over the second half of the season, but because there has already been a talking point built out here about a disconnect between the Bronco Defense and Offense, it is worth going into deeper detail.

Though the 2017 numbers aren’t close to where this defense has played in previous seasons, it may still be the league’s best, a combination of both talent and savvy. An emerging issue is that the savvy may be working against them a bit, because those veterans on defense, including a couple of likely Hall of Famers, know how bad the Bronco QB situation is better than anyone. They see Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler in practice every day, and are fully aware of how it lessens the team’s chances to win come Sunday.

The 51-23 thrashing at Philadelphia brought a higher level of attention to the aftermath to follow up on that disconnect, and in reading between the lines from Von Miller, among others, there is evidence of that “Us vs. Them” in the locker room, though Miller was actually trying to work around that:

“The offense did what we needed them to do today. You can’t put anything on the offense. Our offense played better than it had been doing. As a defense, we said that if we got that part we could start winning. We got that part today, and on defense we (wet) the bed today.”

There is a lot to see there, and the pride of that defense will be a fascinating case study the rest of the way, in particular when Tom Brady comes to town this week. Does the gauntlet of that challenge help to get their focus level to where it needs to be?

By the way, the offense that Miller was trying to give praise to? They only managed 226 yards at 3.8 per play.

Vegas: Monday with the Review-Journal NFL Box Score Page

While putting the focus here on so many different ethnic cuisines across the course of a football season worth of Monday’s I realized that one of my favorites of all, and the one that I eat most often, the lovely world of Thai cuisine, rarely gets mentioned here. There is a reason for that, my football weekends for the past 15 years being catered by Lotus of Siam, long time ago given the tag of “The Best Thai Restaurant in North America” by Gourmet Magazine, and chef/owner Saipin Chutima the recipient of a James Beard award for her culinary inspirations. On most autumn Friday afternoon’s there are large carry-outs that get me all the way through the Sunday night game.

Because of this, come Monday, Thai is far down the list of where the taste buds wish to go, but over the past month it has been a different story, the original Lotus location closed because of a damaged ceiling during a heavy September thunderstorm. They will be opening soon in what was formerly Roy’s, at 620 East Flamingo Road (likely before Thanksgiving), and the Commercial Center location will also reopen around the turn of the new year, the plan being to operate both places simultaneously.

The absence of Lotus weekends has also altered the Monday taste buds a bit, and when there was the need for a classic Thai experience this week, Weera came to the forefront. Their “Boat Vendors Beef Noodle Soup” has long been one of my favorites.

This is the real deal, no compromises for the American palate, an assortment of textures and flavors that will hit just about every part of your taste buds, and four different jarred chile preparations on the side should you need them (a teaspoon or two of the vinegar from the pickled jalapenos adds a nice piquancy), along with fresh basil, bean sprouts, and several chunks of chicharrone. Some Thai iced tea to wash it down keeps it all in balance, in particular when you get to the last few spoonfuls at the bottom of the bowl, where every one of the spices has had a chance to make a contribution. If you are a bit uneasy about the heat level you can opt for a lower spice from the kitchen, and then dress it up to suit your tastes once it reaches the table.

I have some close Thai friends that prefer Weera to Lotus because they feel it is a little more rustic, but you really cannot go wrong at either place, and for those of us fortunate enough to live within short distance of each, we feel blessed to have them in our lives.

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Last edited by Point Blank; 11-07-17 at 02:00 PM.

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This can't be good. It sounds like, despite his best efforts (recent trade of Ajayi and rant in the press), HC Gase is losing the team. How long before they "quit" on him and the team, and solely focus on their personal stats and future contracts?

This can't be good. It sounds like, despite his best efforts (recent trade of Ajayi and rant in the press), HC Gase is losing the team. How long before they "quit" on him and the team, and solely focus on their personal stats and future contracts?

This is where football is so much different from baseball and basketball, the players able to go harder for their contracts in the other sports because most of their movements are measured. The difficulty in football is that in order to be productive a player has to do things that don't always get measured, and at some positions they can hide a lack of effort because even on film it won't jump out. But Miami is yet another example of how fragile the 2017 season is going to be the rest of the way - there are more than a handful of teams that we cannot count on to go hard to the final whistle. The question for the Dolphins going forward is how secure Gase feels his job is. If he is secure coming back for 2018 he can do some house-cleaning. From my reading he appears to be safe, but it is something I have under the microscope. Handicapping the remainder of this season will be far less power ratings and stats-based than most NFL campaigns.

Below is the worn down defenses report for NCAA football for this week. The lists are based on opponent plays per game and opponent average time of possession per game. The red highlighted teams play another team on 1 of the lists. The green highlighted teams are in the bottom quartile of defenses based on adjusted defensive YPP allowed.

Below is the worn down defenses report for NCAA football for this week. The lists are based on opponent plays per game and opponent average time of possession per game. The red highlighted teams play another team on 1 of the lists. The green highlighted teams are in the bottom quartile of defenses based on adjusted defensive YPP allowed.

Is there any news you know of that would account for the Bowling Green money hitting the market? If we can get there, Buffalo -7 looks like good value. What do you see in this matchup, and does Buffalo -7 make it in pocket?

Is there any news you know of that would account for the Bowling Green money hitting the market? If we can get there, Buffalo -7 looks like good value. What do you see in this matchup, and does Buffalo -7 make it in pocket?

Shhhhhhhh...

Been siting patiently looking for that -7 to show. It was detailed in an early-season thread that Mike Jinks may be over-matched at Bowling Green, and thee wasn't anything special in those Falcons wins over Miami O or Kent State - they got a +5 TO advantage across those games. Tyree Jackson missed four games for Buffalo, but came back vs. Akron, and while he was a little rusty in that win, I believe it was a good step in getting into the flow before getting exam extra time off.

Laying points with a team like the Bulls calls for a lowering of the wager amount, but they beat Florida Atlantic on this field with Jackson, and those near-misses at home vs. Western Michigan (lost by 3 in 7 overtimes) and Northern Illinois (lost by 1) could have easily been turned with him on the field. It shows that they have the capacity, and now get to step way down in class.

If you go to "Thread Tools" in the grey bar right above the opening article, you can subscribe. It still has to be done each day at a time, but we may be able to come up with a "Subscribe to all Point Blank posts" option as well.

Imagine the whirlwind of being at the midway point, and some decent play from the Jets, plus unusual circumstances, having them ahead of the Broncos, Bucs, Giants, Cardinals, Packers and Texans. But that is the reality.

Got it thank you. Does not appear to be an option on the iPhone only on computer.

Originally Posted by Point Blank

If you go to "Thread Tools" in the grey bar right above the opening article, you can subscribe. It still has to be done each day at a time, but we may be able to come up with a "Subscribe to all Point Blank posts" option as well.

Looking at the jags stats, i still think I’m underrating them here (although still well above the market so it’s ok)

Originally Posted by Point Blank

Imagine the whirlwind of being at the midway point, and some decent play from the Jets, plus unusual circumstances, having them ahead of the Broncos, Bucs, Giants, Cardinals, Packers and Texans. But that is the reality.

Dave....I added some under 55 Akron/Miami Oh into pocket....I made this line 48 and I am shocked it is this high

I have also added Under 46.5 NE/Denv into pocket.....I cant see this game even entering the 40s. I expect Denvers D to step up and show some pride and become a top 3 D again. NE knows what they have to do to win this week. Dont take any chances against this D and let Osweiler and his limited game play out....I expect a 21-10 NE win this week

Dave, are we sure this year is much different when it comes to teams “packing it in”. I seem to recall hearing you discussing the dream crusher with RJ and Fezz last season.

How a team with high expectations stinks after they realize their season is going up in smoke. NYG/Den/GB all qualify for that.

But what i always remember is eventually that dies down and the teams begin to play well late, when they worry about their next job/contract.

They try to “put good film out there”

Don’t you think all those teams will eventually show life again?

This season is a bit out of the ordinary because of how many teams have that malaise, and also how early in the season it sets in. But you are right when you note about the sense of professionalism that remains in play, and what also makes these fascinating case studies is that the markets are already making significant reactions. The wounded teams that still show pride can be bargain basement purchases, so much like some of the recent NCAA focuses that have gone towards trying to find teams that had that pride, looking for it across the NFL over the next few weeks will matter. There is a difference in doing the sorting this week - I thought the Packers played with pride, but just weren't very good. The Giants, on the other hand, simply did not show much pride at all.

Dave....I added some under 55 Akron/Miami Oh into pocket....I made this line 48 and I am shocked it is this high

I have also added Under 46.5 NE/Denv into pocket.....I cant see this game even entering the 40s. I expect Denvers D to step up and show some pride and become a top 3 D again. NE knows what they have to do to win this week. Dont take any chances against this D and let Osweiler and his limited game play out....I expect a 21-10 NE win this week

The markets seem to be valuing the return of Gus Ragland at QB for Miami pretty highly. I thought the gap between him and Bill Bahl was pretty high prior to last week, when Bahl was able to air it out a little against Ohio, but that would be the likely explanation for both Miami and the Over drawing substantial traffic.

I believe it actually helps the Broncos a bit to be taking on the Patriots this week, which makes it easier for them to find motivation than if it was a lesser opponent. There is also an unusual degree of familiarity for a non-division game, this being the fourth meeting between the teams in Denver over the last two calendar years, Brady and the Pats being held to 19.3 PPG in the first three (NE only managed 4.3 yards per play here LY). My inclinations are similar, with 47 being set as a go price, but I have not found one yet.

what do you think about Rutgers this week getting 31 at PSU? It seems to me that PSU cant even play for the Big 10 title game by losing to OSU and MSU. Arent there dreams shattered? Rutgers has won 3 of 4, and covered 4 in a row by 34 pts.....Is Rutgers in pocket for you?

what do you think about Rutgers this week getting 31 at PSU? It seems to me that PSU cant even play for the Big 10 title game by losing to OSU and MSU. Arent there dreams shattered? Rutgers has won 3 of 4, and covered 4 in a row by 34 pts.....Is Rutgers in pocket for you?

Scarlet Knights should bring enough positive energy to be able to hang around. They don't have any passing game to speak of (#124 in the nation in passing efficiency, out of 129 charted teams), but that just means more emphasis on running the ball to slow things down. For Penn State it is a brutal extension off of Michigan/Ohio State/Michigan State in succession, and with a pair of games to go after this one James Franklin would likely consider something well below this spread to rate as a "win", while shortening the game would likely suit his purposes as well.

The markets seem to be valuing the return of Gus Ragland at QB for Miami pretty highly. I thought the gap between him and Bill Bahl was pretty high prior to last week, when Bahl was able to air it out a little against Ohio, but that would be the likely explanation for both Miami and the Over drawing substantial traffic.

I believe it actually helps the Broncos a bit to be taking on the Patriots this week, which makes it easier for them to find motivation than if it was a lesser opponent. There is also an unusual degree of familiarity for a non-division game, this being the fourth meeting between the teams in Denver over the last two calendar years, Brady and the Pats being held to 19.3 PPG in the first three (NE only managed 4.3 yards per play here LY). My inclinations are similar, with 47 being set as a go price, but I have not found one yet.

And now some late breaking news for Akron - QB Thomas Woodson has been suspended, inexperienced Kato Nelson named the starter for the Zips. Expect to see -10 become the new price.

First and foremost, I appreciate SBR's work to improve the forum functionality. It's so much easier now to follow the PB thread, with one clean page and comments displaying in chronological order to be especially appreciated on football weekends. My only concern is that anonymous screen names are back, which cracks open the door for trolls, but I have faith in PB remaining the most dignified Internet forum I've ever come across and nothing else comes close.

Second, I've got a repeat of last week's Miami +3.5 when the rest of the market was at Oakland -2.5. The same book currently has Buffalo at +3.5, a number to which I have reacted accordingly. The Bills have been in consideration for a teaser at +2.5, so +3.5 seems particularly attractive. One thing that didn't work out last week was the opportunity to play back Oakland -2.5, which would have been icing on the cake, but I'd expect Bills-Saints to move closer to pick 'em before too much recreational money arrives later in the week. Is there a rough % of Bills +3.5 that you'd plan to play back on Saints -2.5 (or less) in the next few days?

First and foremost, I appreciate SBR's work to improve the forum functionality. It's so much easier now to follow the PB thread, with one clean page and comments displaying in chronological order to be especially appreciated on football weekends. My only concern is that anonymous screen names are back, which cracks open the door for trolls, but I have faith in PB remaining the most dignified Internet forum I've ever come across and nothing else comes close.

Second, I've got a repeat of last week's Miami +3.5 when the rest of the market was at Oakland -2.5. The same book currently has Buffalo at +3.5, a number to which I have reacted accordingly. The Bills have been in consideration for a teaser at +2.5, so +3.5 seems particularly attractive. One thing that didn't work out last week was the opportunity to play back Oakland -2.5, which would have been icing on the cake, but I'd expect Bills-Saints to move closer to pick 'em before too much recreational money arrives later in the week. Is there a rough % of Bills +3.5 that you'd plan to play back on Saints -2.5 (or less) in the next few days?

Yes, 0%. Buffalo +3.5 is a ticket that would go into pocket for a full position, but no one on the other side of the counter has been gracious enough to offer it to me yet.

Should be interesting to see if Houston falls in that category in LA on Sunday.

Originally Posted by Point Blank

This season is a bit out of the ordinary because of how many teams have that malaise, and also how early in the season it sets in. But you are right when you note about the sense of professionalism that remains in play, and what also makes these fascinating case studies is that the markets are already making significant reactions. The wounded teams that still show pride can be bargain basement purchases, so much like some of the recent NCAA focuses that have gone towards trying to find teams that had that pride, looking for it across the NFL over the next few weeks will matter. There is a difference in doing the sorting this week - I thought the Packers played with pride, but just weren't very good. The Giants, on the other hand, simply did not show much pride at all.

How would you rate a +3 -120 for buffalo Dave? I agree with Matt, I see this only going lower. Forget about it if some weather moves in for the weekend.

I would go, not believing that you are going to see much better than that. The problem is that there are plenty of sharps with their fingers on the trigger looking to fire at any +3's that show, which means that it would take a substantial New Orleans push to get through that barrage and make 3's common.

I would go, not believing that you are going to see much better than that. The problem is that there are plenty of sharps with their fingers on the trigger looking to fire at any +3's that show, which means that it would take a substantial New Orleans push to get through that barrage and make 3's common.

And having said that last night, here comes some New Orleans money into the Wednesday morning markets, a prime opportunity to get tickets filled out with #264 Buffalo.