Raiders and Vegas: Why it’s as big of a gamble as you think it is

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FILE – In this April 28, 2016 file photo, Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis, center, meets with Raiders fans after speaking at a meeting of the Southern Nevada Tourism Infrastructure Committee in Las Vegas. Proponents of an NFL football stadium in Las Vegas aren’t budging on their request for $750 million in hotel tax dollars and don’t want to return any profits to the public. An oversight committee could finalize a recommendation for the Legislature next week. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)

Hard to fault Mark Davis for wanting to accept a handout of three-quarters of a billion dollars to build a palace worthy of the Raiders, but the process remains fraught with peril both in terms of relocation or staying at home.

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Reactions from NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and stadium czar Eric Grubman were less than enthusiastic about the Ronnie Lott group’s proposal, but didn’t close the door on Oakland/Alameda County.

You can take that to mean the locals have been offered a seat at the table, with the unstated goal of leveraging every last nickel from them under the threat of losing their team to Las Vegas.

It’s a poker game that could take until March to sort out. In the interim, Davis and Sheldon Adelson must come to an agreement on the casino mogul’s commitment and involvement. NFL owners have to determine how comfortable they are both with playing in Vegas and with Adelson’s potential presence in the league’s power structure.

There is almost no scenario which would find the Raiders anywhere else but the Coliseum for 2017 and probably 2018. Yet the process is far enough along it’s worth considering what would await the Raiders in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas, fittingly, is a gamble, and a big one. Here are a few reasons:

Season-ticket base: There is no hard evidence that the Las Vegas area itself will have enough fans, with enough money burning a hole in their pockets, to come up with the cash for seat licenses and expensive tickets.

Commuter support: There was a hearty group of Raiders fans who weekly made the trek to Los Angeles while the team resided there for 13 years. It wasn’t nearly enough to fill those stands. Southwest Airlines will be busy every weekend the Raiders have a home game.

But those are also fans who aren’t likely to be purchasing seat licenses, and that’s where the cash lies.

Player environment: Lamonte Winston, the Raiders director of player engagement, will need to hire a full staff to keep track of the goings on of players on the Las Vegas strip. It isn’t unusual for players to let loose in Vegas during bye weeks. The Raiders will have 17 of those weeks during the regular season.

Media market: According to Nielsen rankings, Las Vegas is the No. 40 television market. San Jose-Oakland-San Francisco is No. 6, trailing only New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas-Ft. Worth.

Television money drives the NFL. Owners will look long and hard at this particular detail before casting their vote to put one of its members in Las Vegas.

THE BETTING WINDOW

MVP candidates Matt Ryan (2) and Derek Carr meet in the after the Falcons beat the Raiders in Week 2.

Enough for now about the NFL’s potential Raiders-to-Vegas gamble. Here’s a look at how the postseason awards could shake with just three weeks to go in the regular season:

Most Valuable Player

Ryan’s numbers have been huge, and if the Falcons win their division, he could be a clear choice. Carr can’t afford another game like Kansas City, but remains in the hunt if the Raiders finish strong. Brady is hurt by a four-game suspension. Stafford has the Lions in the hunt, and Rodgers is coming on late.

Defensive player of the year

Mack is single-handedly giving the Raiders a pass rush with 11 of their meager total of 22 sacks, altering games with his explosiveness. Miller is the key to a still formidable Denver defense and the only edge player in the NFL comparable to Mack.

Coach of the year

Garrett lost his quarterback and had key players on suspension but has successfully guided the Cowboys to the playoffs after going 4-12 last season. Del Rio moves to the top if the Raiders overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.

Comeback player of the year

It’s a runaway for Murray. He went from 1,845 yards with Dallas to 703 yards, and 3.6 yards per carry season in Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia offense. Now he the NFL’s No. 2 rusher with the Titans (1,135 yards). Suggs has eight sacks and six forced fumbles the year after Achilles’ surgery.