Machine-Learning-Based Early-Warning System Maintains Stable Production

After long-term waterflooding, a number of mature oil fields in China have entered the high-water-cut stage, and abnormal production decline has become the primary problem for stable production. This paper describes an accurate, three-step, machine-learning-based early warning system (EWS) that has been used to monitor production and guide strategy in the Shengli field. Adding artificial samples to the training process improved the system’s prediction accuracy greatly (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1—The work flow to build an EWS model based on machine learning.

Introduction

For conventional Chinese oil fields that have entered the high-water-cut stage after decades of waterflooding, stabilizing production has become increasingly difficult. After stimulation treatments throughout the field’s history, abnormal decline rates—that is, exceeding 5%—occurred more frequently. Production declined dramatically in 2004 and has not been maintained since then.

To prevent future abnormal production declines, an effective EWS was needed that could release a production alarm to enable engineers to take preventive measures in advance. The complete paper includes a discussion of various early-warning models and their limitations.

The paper discusses an EWS based on a neural network method using a previously established data set. Factors that can affect the abnormal decline were selected. The index sets of production composition and injected and produced water obtained from practical statistics were considered as the main assessment indicators. Grey relational analysis was used to evaluate the importance of the different indicators and to eliminate redundant parameters.

Machine learning was adopted to build the EWS. Using the degree of deviation from normal as the input data for the prediction model provided the highest accuracy. However, the basic machine-learning model contains many input parameters that cannot be obtained easily. The number of input parameters was optimized on the basis of the variation of accuracy under different input parameter numbers. To improve prediction accuracy, artificial samples were added to the training process.

The prediction accuracy of the final optimization model can reach 92%. The result reveals the possibility of the occurrence of anomalous decline in different reservoirs, which can guide oilfield production strategy effectively. The EWS was verified by oilfield production.

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Judy Feder, contains highlights of paper SPE 197365, “A Novel Early Warning System of Oil Production Based on Machine Learning,” by Kang Ma, Hanqiao Jiang, and Junjian Li, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, et al., prepared for the 2019 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, 11–14 November. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

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