In the prior 20 years of the NFL postseason, there have been 23 wild-card games between teams in the top 10 of the league according to the Simple Rating System, while also each having SRS ratings of at least 2.5 points per game above average. SRS, published by Pro Football Reference, takes into account teams’ margin of victory and strength of schedule. A wild-card playoff game featuring two top 10 teams shouldn’t be unusual, since just 12 teams make the postseason. But then the 12 teams with the best records don’t all make it — Denver is tied for 13th-best with seven other teams — and the 12 best teams by SRS certainly don’t make it: Denver, Cincinnati and the Giants all sneaked in while falling out of that range.

The two teams in such a game, then, are worthy of wild-card spots, and you might expect the winner to give its next opponent, off a bye, a tough game. But the winners of such games are just 6-17 in the next round. Going up against one of the conference’s two division champs with the best record has been too stern a test three times out of four. It’s small consolation, but 70% of the time the winner of one of these games has eventually lost in the playoffs, the team that beat them ended up appearing in the Super Bowl.