Is It Really a Rally?

Although the market looks to open up this morning, it’s not really “up” in the sense that everything in relative.

For those who missed Wednesday’s trading session (Dow –160 and S&P down to 2,058.9) it wasn’t a whole lot of fun.

Later today, I’m sure my consigliore will call to scream victory since he’s been a fan of the End-of-Year rally for several months now.

Normally, that wouldn’t be a bad thing. Except that if the top of this pig is really in, then we ought to be able to test some of our long-standing theories.

One is that from a top, a real “crash” develops around the 55-day mark.

Since Yahoo is kind enough to keep daily trading stats on the S&P in public view here, all we would need to do is thumb back through the data until we come to the recording closing high from 2014 at 2,093.55.

Looking at the intra-day highs, that occurred on December 29th, which is more than ample reason for my consigliore to score the point.

Since Excel is better at math than me at this hour, that means a crash date around February 22nd.

Since that is a Sunday (and I was supposed to be a cruise ship that day) the collapse will happen either before, or after that weekend.

One possibility is Friday the 20th, but there’s a problem with that: It is a holiday-shortened week. President’s day is February 16th. So the week before should see a minor bounce (the holiday effect) and then the market should be retesting lows put in back in October 2014 (or even lower levels) since it is axiomatic that crashes don’t happen from market tops: They happen from bottoms.

Whether this just sets up the final manic run for a couple of more years to money-printing-delirium highs, or whether this is the Big One remains open. But we are confident enough of the look-ahead that we will not be going on a cruise with friends. We’ll be staying home to watch the money pile up.

Of course, there’s another possibility: The market will put in new highs this month, which would push the crash period out two further months. In which case, it will be revealed to the world that I’m a cheap old Scrooge who didn’t want to spring for a nice balcony room on an NCL cruise which would not doubt be almost as much fun as staying home to count (and make) some money.

Time will tell.

The real point of this morning is to welcome you to the first Friday of 2015 and note that even though the market is looking bullish at the open, as the high-end graphic upper right indicates, whether it will really be an “up” day, is questionable, indeed.

What Really Matters? Budget

The mainstream media has unwittingly fallen into unquestioning belief in press release language manipulating the playing field.

It’s a generally good article, but I’d draw your attention to this little bit in here:

“….with entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security a potential target for cuts…”

Hold the phone, there Bucko.

Since when is Social Security an “entitlement?”

It’s a subject for future analysis as a Peoplenomics piece, but take someone like me: In my lifetime, myself and employers have paid in $400,000 to Social Security.

Now, there are those who would argue that this isn’t quite right because my “out of pocket” was around (for example) $200,000. And where can I get the kind of payout I anticipate with that kind of pay-in? Glad you asked.

Unfortunately, the inflation game gets played on everyone at this point, because 99% of the American public isn’t as smart as you and me.

In 1982, for example, I made $39,500 per year. And about (round numbers) 14.5% went into Social Security. In today’s dollars (those dirty, watered-down, mostly made up [96% made up]) things, that would be $98,392.

What’s more, in 1980, if I had taken the 14.5% of $39,500 – my part and the mandatory employer part came to $5,727 – and put it into the S&P 500, which at the time was what? Well, December 22nd (1982) the S&P was 138.03.

For the REAL $5,727 at that point, had I been managing my own money and just tracking the S&P instead of being held at gunpoint by Uncle Sam, that year alone would be worth today how much? 14.9 times the original sum and that’s just tracking the S&P for that period. That would be $88,000 and change and that’s for just one work year.

I worked 50 years with those kind of numbers. Some much higher, some lower.

Would results always be this good: Hell no.

But I want to be extraordinarily clear on two points here:

1. If employees had been paid the “mandatory employer part” and invested it, we would be the richest country and the richest generation alive ever.

2. The fact there never was a “Trust Fund” – it was “invested in agency paper and other idiotically low returns” reveals that Social Security, while well-intended, had turned out to be a payoff of the poor and a terrible swindle of middle class and up earners.

Since I’ve now worked 50 years, what Social Security should be paying me on is actually well into the millions. Watering down the money is key to the swindle, though.

So when someone dares imply that Social Security is an “entitlement” take ‘em out back, slap them around with a calculator, explain inflation to their thick skulls, and tell them you’ll wash their mouth out if they can’t see a swindle when they’re the victims.

Oh, wait, seniors are remarkably slow learners on inflation and they are largely dumb enough to believe politicians. Two strikes. Shall I mention the third? That’s failure to pass on hard-fought mental acuity to the next round of suckers…

Wrong Message to Terrorists

To my (admittedly jaded) way of thinking, this sends exactly the WRONG message to would-be terrorists. The liberalistas of Boston have just painted a big target on themselves.

I’m sure my liberal pal will call incensed that I am going down the path of eye-for-eye justice. But I assure you that’s not the case.

It’s more four or five eyes for each one on our side.

Lookie here: The sad reality of war is the winner is the side that kills the most and those who don’t understand that are what has turned us into an international laughing stock not to be feared and taken seriously even when we talk tough.

Because in the end, it’s just talk and do-gooders galore. And that makes such fine slaves, in case you hadn’t figured it out. I’m thinking prayer rugs must be selling like hotcakes in Boston.

19 Comments

cj on January 2, 2015 at 15:34

It was a falseflag, nobody died. Research info it was a drill that day and even people in the area were told as such. The pattern is – they always find/label a patsy early on, provide a name(s) (Tsarnaev) so there is no real investigation – case closed.

The only terrorists are the groups making up the “theater”, in the end creating fear and taking away yet more individual rights. Geez people, don’t you get it, from manufactured wars, created movements such as hippies, feminism (all of them), created murderers like Bundy, they are all made to control/steer the population with fear and it works!!! Wake up and stop blaming the patsies~!

erheault on January 2, 2015 at 12:07

Unfortunately we have no government as such what we have is a bunch of Cronies in office that want to dictate their beliefs and rules on the average American and reap benefits and wealth while at it. Also it seems that the average citizen can tell you every Sports players name and his averages but have no cue who his Senator is or what his Senator in doing to him, As long as the Circus goes on and they get their free Bread life is good.

Someone – please – explain to me what an “average” American is. I have never met one knowingly – that is unles the ‘average’ is an ignorant college graduate that’s not met the real world and dealt with it.

Burns me up too George! We could start a NBAC (National Burning Ass Club) for retirees! SS should have allowed me to retire as a millionaire if the congress critters had paid me prevailing interest for 50 yrs plus of forced deductions. I invest a hell of a lot smarter/successfully than those clowns! Welfare in Hawaii is a lot better than SS, check it out. I’m getting my Craftsman vise grips out…

Liberalistas / Progressives / anyone who espouse, after or assuming a fair trial and conviction for 1st degree murder re: that surviving Boston bomber, any array of punishments excluding the death penalty are “verruckt” (insane) and dangerous to local and national security !

Subscribed for life and sincerely,

[real name redact -g] , M.Div., J.D.

dan on January 2, 2015 at 10:22

How about a little heads up regarding deflation and how to “Survive”/thrive during deflationary periods.Payoff all debt-No Matter What,thinking cash and cash equivalents are best. What the heck are cash equivalents and how/where can we measure them?

Kimberly in MI on January 2, 2015 at 09:29

entitlement: the condition of having a right to something. You are by definition ‘entitled’ to your social security. You have a legal contract, you paid into the fund. You are entitled to receive what you have earned. The other definitions are bogus. Orwellian doublespeak at it’s finest. No one is entitled to welfare, medicare, food stamps, or any other social program. Calling them entitlements is wordsmithing to change the game. Kimberly in MI

Actually, in popular idiom (which ain’t Black’s Law Dic.) is is shown this way in Wikipedia:

“An entitlement is a government program guaranteeing access to some benefit by members of a specific group and based on established rights or by legislation.[1][2] The term may also reflect a pejorative connotation, as in a “sense of entitlement”. A “right” is itself an entitlement associated with a moral or social principle, such that an “entitlement” is a provision made in accordance with a legal framework of a society. Typically, entitlements are based on concepts of principle (“rights”) which are themselves based in concepts of social equality or enfranchisement.:

The problem is that by not assuring a standard of living, and defining social security as an entitlement, the way is open for the Weaselcrats (on both sides of the aisle, both owned by corpgov lobbyists) to simply “make up” numbers. Much as what happens with Social Security benefit changes now.

Please note that SS recipients received less than 2% adjustments as a COLA this year, yet, we note that food costs and medical costs (huge budget items for us grays) were how much:?

3.2% and 3.1%. What’s more, when we finally bottom out, and government is forced to inflate to make ends meet (about the time of savings confiscations) we will see seniors fall behind in real terms as government works a 12-month “float” which means by the time the additional money is paid to SS recipients, it’s actually a two-fer: The money paid won’t be reflecting anything but a lower average of new prices and then when paid in a following year, the money will buy even less.

Nice scam if it can be pulled off.

But like I said, it is beyond me why we give benefits the way we do. But hey! I’m just cranky about this stuff.

Ken on January 2, 2015 at 09:23

I agree with the entitlements my ass statement. for my whole life we were told that that was our retirement fund.. In the eighties we were told that by adding those funds to the general budget our funds would be more secure. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-91W5LS0E8

Ken on January 2, 2015 at 09:16

I agree… I have said all along.. if you want to stop the problems then you have to be like other countries that have had and learned how to handle such situations. While we tend to be a little more soft hearted and forgiving than those countries.

kurt on January 2, 2015 at 09:14

An eye for an eye may well be justified or even wise – in some cases.

I would submit to you that this is NOT one of them.

The entire event STINKS to high heaven. From the smoke-bomb blast to the murder of FBI questionees while in custody – and every rotten thing in between – calling for the blood of the younger Tsarnaev makes one COMPLICIT IN THIS FRAUDULENT AND CRIMINAL ACT.

George Ure on January 2, 2015 at 09:20

I would not be so angered it it were not for idiotic radicalized Muslims like Nidal Hasan who is still (FIVE YEARS IS IT?) incarcerated at the United States Disciplinary Barracks at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas awaiting execution while his case is reviewed by appellate courts.

At some point we gotta stop being stupid.

George Ure on January 2, 2015 at 09:32

And this part (from Wikipedia) as trial begins is important to note: According to FBI interrogators, Dzhokhar and his brother were motivated by extremist Islamic beliefs, and “were not connected to any known terrorist groups”; instead learning to build explosive weapons from an online magazine published by al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen.[17] It is further alleged that “[Dzhokhar and] his brother considered suicide attacks and striking on the Fourth of July;[153] but ultimately decided to use pressure cooker bombs (capable of remote detonation) and other IEDs.” Fox News reported that the brothers “chose the prestigious race as a ‘target of opportunity’ … [after] the building of the bombs came together more quickly than expected”.[154][155]

Dzhokhar said he and his brother wanted to defend Islam from the U.S., which conducted the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan, in the view of the brothers, against Muslims.[7][132][156] Later a CBS report revealed that a note scrawled by Dzhokhar with a marker on the interior wall of the boat where he was hiding said the bombings were “retribution for U.S. military action in Afghanistan and Iraq”, and called the Boston victims ‘collateral damage’, “in the same way innocent victims have been collateral damage in U.S. wars around the world.”[157] According to The New York Times the portion of the boat’s interior with the note would likely be cut from the hull with permission from the owner and presented in court as evidence.[158]

So I stand by my earlier point about not being stupid, and moreover, please remember that rabble-rousers on the net come in two flavors: government trolls and Islamist trolls when we start being influenced by commentary and assertions, rather than fact. Recent events in Ferguson and NYC underscore the public’s readiness to oppose rather than following the route of due process and harsh application of punishment for those found guilty. The good news is still freedom of the press.

garry Zelk on January 2, 2015 at 09:55

I’m with you Kurt, especially the killing of the friend in Fla. That screams BS. Basically it also boils down to: Do you believe what you are told by the FBI, Fox News and MSM newspapers? There are many other sources beside Wash. Times and the rest of the propaganda machine. Check out BLN and others for more info you’ll never see on MSM. As always, use common sense when digesting the news. Playing into the division of us against us is exactly what they want.

George Ure on January 2, 2015 at 10:04

Unfortunately, while the online media try, when comes to crime and crime scenes and facetime with investigators and such, the corp media have the onliners terribly outgunned (if that’s not a poor turns of a phrase, I don’t know what it. (can you tell it’s a quiet day at the ranch?)

kurt on January 3, 2015 at 10:35

Since I can’t reply to your replies, George, I’ll reply to my own post.

As to the rest of your “proof”, I find it laughable that you would 1)effectively “quote” young Tsarnaev (YT) as having said, claimed, or written ANYTHING. If the FBI has demonstrated anything over recent years, it is they are not to be trusted. They have been caught time and again lying, fabricating, withholding, and coercing. 2)Cite Wikipedia and/or Fox News as trustworthy on matters of great importance. Wikipedia is by it’s very nature subject to manipulation, and Fox is clearly an establishment tool. 3) IGNORE all the Reichstag-like evidence and inconsistencies relating to the events leading up to and including the “bombing”.

Your citing of your frustration with a convicted terrorist in Leavenworth still being alive, as rationale for YT’s quick dispatch, is akin to YOU being the “RABBLE”, and calling for a lynching…”Don’t bother me with details or facts – SOMEBODY HAS TO PAY FOR MY FEAR AND FRUSTRATION!”

You are calling for blood. It is incumbent on you to give a harder look at this event…INCLUDING some of the alternative claims…and do so with objectivity. Your bias on this event is clear. You may respond that I am biased as well (against trusting government narratives) – and that is surely true, and who can deny that that bias is warranted? But here is the difference…MY bias is not calling for stretching someone’s neck in the name of frustration.

Rob on January 2, 2015 at 08:28

“Entitlements” my ass! ‘They’ are trying to change the way those funds we paid into are ‘seen’ by the public. Turn them from what something we bought & paid for to another welfare giveaway so they can cut them & walk away with our money.

Dave on January 2, 2015 at 18:37

Where to start. I’ve worked for myself and private employers for 30 plus hrs. Paying into s.s. I will work for county(government) for 26 yrs. When I retire at 62. I paided s.s and will get screwed because of working at county reduced to 67 percent. Well the state mandates 10.5 percent out of my check and 14.5 percent from county(tax payer). That’s 24.5 percent. That’s a real screwin and still have to put in to deferred comp. To have a decent retirement. I should be a millionaire over and over. But will retire with about 4000 per month. That’s sounds great and all but a lot of that comes from my deferred comp.and the f###ers still tax all that.