Liberal Democrat preview of 2011: party will struggle to win back confidence of voters

The New Year is supposed to be a time of optimism, a chance to think of the
opportunities and chances that lie ahead. The Liberal Democrats may not see
it that way, since for them, 2011 looks like being a trying year.

Vince Cable has had a torrid few days, but will his ministerial career come to a halt in 2011?Photo: REUTERS

The junior Coalition partners start the year with their poll ratings at record lows: support is in single figures, according to some surveys. More worryingly for the Lib Dems, it is hard to see many reasons for that to change over the coming 12 months.

The first test for Nick Clegg’s party will come early, with the Oldham and Saddleworth East by-election on January 13.

On the face of it, the Lib Dems should stroll the contest. They finished only 103 votes behind Labour last time, and Labour has had to vacate the seat because its candidate was found to have broken electoral law.

David Cameron has even signalled that his Conservatives will tread softly in Oldham to help their junior partners.

What better preparation could you want? But the Lib Dems know victory is far from assured. Labour is fighting hard in the seat, playing up the Lib Dem “betrayals” since entering office last year.

Losing Oldham would be a real blow, both to Mr Clegg’s leadership and his party

If the by-election could throw a lighted match on the tinder of Lib Dem doubts about the Coalition, the events of May 2011 could seem more like a Bunsen-burner.

May looms large in Lib Dem imaginations. That is when voters will decide on Mr Clegg’s proposal to change the Westminster election system to the Alternative Vote.

Ditching First-past-the-post is another long-held Lib Dem dream; electoral reform is the party's only hope of ever matching the Conservatives and Labour.

But the referendum carries risks. It is far from clear that voters are enthused by AV, or the very idea of a popular vote. A dismally low turnout would be little surprise.

And if the answer is No, what then? Some say that will spell the end of the Coalition, that without any electoral reform, Lib Dems will see no point in remaining in office.

Lib Dem ministers rubbish that suggestion, pointing out that breaking the Coalition could trigger an early general election. As one says: “Why would party with an eight per cent approval rating want that?”

On the same day as the AV referendum, devolved elections are held in Scotland and Wales, and to some English councils. That will be the first test of the parties’ standings since the Coalition deal was struck.

They say that the party’s only hope is in keeping to the Coalition all the way to the 2015 general election, betting that in time, voters will come to appreciate the Lib Dem contribution to the country.

That, say the optimists, is the party’s experience of coalitions in Scotland: voters initially punish the junior partner, then reconsider over time.

Maybe. But for that strategy to succeed, the Lib Dems must survive as a coherent party. As well as the electoral tests in January and May, Coalition policies could also test Lib Dem unity.

Ministers are still locked in debate about the future of control orders imposed on suspected terrorists. The Lib Dems want them scrapped, but senior Tories are reluctant. How will Lib Dem MPs react if they are retained?

Likewise the prospect of building a new generation of nuclear powers.

And what happens when public spending cuts really start to bite, on interest groups like teachers and nurses, and on benefits claimants? Many Lib Dems will find their protests deeply painful.

We know after the Daily Telegraph’s recent revelations that some Lib Dem ministers are deeply uncomfortable about many Coalition policies.

None is as uncomfortable as Vince Cable, the errant Business Secretary who narrowly survived 2010. His prospects in 2011 look bleak: many Tory hope that if a parliamentary investigation exonerates David Laws over his expenses, he will be given Mr Cable’s post, and St Vince will be asked to retire gracefully.

Handling Mr Cable – a highly popular figure in his party – will be yet another challenge for Mr Clegg. A mistake could prove fatal for the Lib Dem leader.

As the first Liberal leader to hold high office since David Lloyd George, Mr Clegg has made history.

But history holds warnings as well as accolades.

The most pessimistic Lib Dems recall the fate of Lloyd George in 1916. Then, the Liberals split into two factions, one supporting Lloyd George in Government, the rest joining the opposition against their own party leader.