The Mets’ 3-4-5 hitters—Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright—have 30-plus homer potential. Alou is good for over 20. If Shawn Green gets his stroke, he might hit over 20, too.

They are going to score with the long ball, but their offense needs to be aggressive to be effective. They need to get on-base, steal, advance runners, take their chances on the bases. That’s something they can do even when the power goes out.

John Delcos enters his third season covering the Mets for The Journal News after eight seasons on the Yankees beat. Prior to coming to New York, John covered the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Browns and Cleveland Indians.

14 Comments

“We will run selectively. I think one of the things that doomed this club last year is that they were first in caught stealing. I am not going to be running all over the place just because 25,000 people in the stands are saying I am aggressive while people are getting thrown out on the bases. Not everybody will have a green light here. The guys who are going to run are the guys who are going to prove to me that they will be successful most of the time trying to steal a base.”
-Manny Acta, Manager, Washington Nationals

You wouldn’t think Rickey Henderson is my favorite player of all time, but he is. Not just for stealing bases, but for being an all-around awesome baseball player. See- declining outfielder maintains high OBP. Gets walked all the time even though they know he’s going to try to steal. That’s more important than the SBs, by far.

I agree whole-heartedly with John. Throwing away outs is just stupid. The break-even rate for stolen bases helping vs hurting is around 75%. Slow guys don’t steal at 75%. Telling them to try is just stupid. The catchers will be salivating waiting to play the Mets.

Let’s take the 1985 Cardinals as an example. Sure they had more SB than anyone (and stole at a successful 77% clip), but they also had amazing pitching (second best in the league behind the Dodgers, and better than the Mets, slightly), amazing defense, AND THE BEST OFFENSE IN THE LEAGUE. Their OPS was better than the Dodgers’. Is it because of their flashy runners that they drew more walks than any other team in the league? Did the pitchers throw walks because they were flustered about the runners? Unlikely- these are professionals. And such a correlation has never been solidly demonstrated.

running can help your team, thats obvious, but you guys are acting like Willie is going to be sending Lo Duca or Alou. I mean, c’mon, don’t be crazy. Beltran will run more. So will Wright. And Reyes of course. Endy, Milledge, Johnson, all can steal a bag. Most of these guys are pretty good at it too. It’s not like we’re say send Castro. We’re sending the guys who CAN steal a bag.

If the pitcher needs to hold the runner close the first baseman needs to be on the bag. Also the pitcher is looking over his shoulder (righty ) or at least he is not looking at his target. Additionally, if he is a quick throwing pitcher his rythm is now broken. And yes I am talking pros – I don’t watch college or hs baseball.

Occasionally a balk will happen because the pitcher is trying to go to first or make him think so. Also in most cases the normal delivery of the pitcher changes.

All of these things and more affects the pitcher and that is just one player on the field. All because the man on first may take the next base which creates the threat of a long single put another digit on the board.

As for correlation, of course you are right. But watch a pitcher before and after someone at first is a threat. It should be evident, even for the best of pitchers. Even if they don’t seem to be affected they are.

It’s like in boxing. You throw a stiff jab and the other guy shakes his head. Says it doesn’t affect him. Eventually it does and the jab is followed with a cross..

As I said in the other posting it is about pressure. Even Julio Franco got 6 last year. If you know they run going in you have to adjust. It’s in your head. You may not throw the curve you may want to because a slow 50 year old player may time you and get to second…

Dave, what about when it seems like the hitter falls behind on the count because he is waiting for the runner to steal? I admit that base-stealing threats may cause the occasional defensive mistake, but don’t you think it is canceled out by this?

Omar and Willie have brought Ricky Henderson here for a reason. When you’ve got a speedster like Jose Reyes on a team, he can – and will – institute all kinds of surprises on the bases. And, it will force everyone on the field to be more alert. Ricky Henderson is a master at these moves.

I agree baserunning can be a problem for power hitters. If you have guys who can handle the bat this becomes less of an issue.

The Cards of the 80’s were very good at this. They had one legit power hitter who gave just enuf pop to make it all go. They also took a slick fielding no hit ss we had and made him a 300 hitter. Go figure.

Bottom line. I would like to see us run more. It creates more pressure.

We have many guys who could be in the lineup at the same time that would cause the opposing team nightmares – reyes, beltran, endy, wright, milledge. All have legit speed. Dave is the slowest of these and he got 20 last yr.

On days all of the above play that is half your team. Half. Unless you are an extremely disciplined pitcher you will be distracted. The defense behind you needs to shift making holes. This creates hits which does not show up in stats. It also reduces double plays.

I think Henderson in camp allows the people who should run a better chance. Last year he taught Jose how to steal. What to look for. How to read the pitcher.

Franco swiped 6 and got caught once. No one will accuse him of being secrateriat. He did it by taking advantage of the situation in front of him.

As I said before the balance for the pitcher becomes the one on base vs the plate. If he focuses on the plate the other guy moves up one. If he worries about the base he is forced to lean on the fastball which Delgado will crush.

Every situation is different of course, but I think we are better off as a team with the reputation for running with the power guys to take advantage of the mistakes.