726
FXUS63 KICT 120530
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017
...Updated for Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017
Headline:
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire CWA until 7PM
CST this evening (see Fire Weather discussion below).
A rapidly moving mid/upper level shortwave clipper is making its
way through the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and
evening. A weak surface trough that is draped across the eastern
Plains is being pushed through by the clipper, tightening the
northwest oriented gradient at the surface this afternoon. The
tightened gradient, steep lapse rates, and a good amount of mixing
are allowing for elevated wind speeds across much of the Plains.
Sustained speeds in excess of 30mph with gusts near 40mph are
possible.
As the system jets eastward away from the CWA late Monday evening
and into Tuesday morning, wind speeds will come back down
overnight Monday night. Additionally, a wedge of slightly cooler
air in the wake of the shortwave will keep highs on Tuesday
roughly 10 degrees cooler than Monday, though the overall synoptic
pattern of northwesterly flow with a mid/upper ridge in the west
and trough in the eastern CONUS will continue. This will allow for
another gradual warmup on Wednesday with highs once again nearing
the 60 degree mark.
Indications are that another clipper will likely skirt across the
northeastern corner of Kansas during the day on Wednesday, which
would once again elevate wind speeds with possible gusts near
30mph. Like with the previous system, very low atmospheric
moisture content and dew points dipping into the mid 20s during
the afternoon could create very high fire danger on Wednesday.
Otherwise, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures on
Thursday in the shortwave`s wake are the only highlights of an
otherwise quiet forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017
The high pressure regime that has been dominating the western
CONUS will finally give way on Thursday into Friday, as an
elongated upper trough backs across the Central Plains. This will
quickly move east and will be followed by yet another wave that is
forecast to usher a surface low just to the northeast of the
area. It looks as if the timing and location of this second
shortwave this weekend will not be conducive to any precip for the
area, as moisture will remain scarce. Therefore, the current
consensus is that the dry pattern we have been experiencing for
some time now will continue for central, south central, and
southeast Kansas at least through early next week.
Due to frequent inquiries about any precip chances at all within
the foreseeable future for the area, took a quick glance beyond
the forecast period into the extended period. Early indications
from both long range models and CPC are that that the dry weather
is likely to continue for the better part of what remains of 2017.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Breezy northwest winds
will continue to subside overnight. Will see a period of SCT-BKN
VFR clouds around 4000 ft AGL for many sites overnight in response
to cold advection.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all CWA counties until 7PM
this evening. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible with
gusts as strong as 45mph. When combined with cured grasses and low
relative humidity values (around 20 percent), these strong winds
will create an extreme grassland fire danger across not only the CWA
but the state of Kansas and beyond. Any fires that develop Monday
afternoon will likely spread rapidly and may be difficult to
control. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged.
Another day of fire concern is likely on Wednesday, when low relative
humidities and wind gusts up to 30mph will result in grassland
fire danger index values in the very high category across much of
the CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 30 51 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 28 51 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 28 49 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 29 48 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 29 50 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 26 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 26 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 28 51 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 27 50 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 28 47 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 27 45 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 27 45 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 28 46 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...TAV