11 February, 2017

The US concern for the rise of the Leftist forces inside the UK Labor Party during the Thatcherian era

In
the newly
released archive of 13 million pages by CIA, we
found a report under the
title UK: Election Prospects - What if Thatcher loses?, which
was monitoring closely the rise of the Leftist forces inside the UK
Labor Party, as well as, various electoral scenarios, for the 1983 UK general election, under which
these forces could harm the US interests.

It
appears that the main US concern was the rise of influence of the
Leftist component inside the Labor Party, and therefore, the possible
"relocation" of the party towards 'nuclear disarmament'
positions. These specifically included cancellation of the Trident
submarine program, rejection of the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear
Forces) deployment in the United Kingdom and the rest of Western
Europe, freezing and closing of US nuclear bases in the United
Kingdom, phaseout of the Polaris program.

Key
parts:

Even if the Conservative Party fades somewhat during
the campaign, however, it probably will win the election with a
sizable majority. Thatcher will thus be in a position to fulfill
commitments on INF basing and other defense matters.

Leftist forces within the Labor Party have increased
their influence since 1979, and have been able to imprint their
views on the party program. The last three party conferences,
for example, endorsed unilateral nuclear disarmament by a larger
margin each time and, in 1982, by a two-thirds vote that ensures its
inclusion in Labor's program.

According to the conference resolution, Labor
supports cancellation of the Trident submarine program; rejects INF
deployment in the United Kingdom and the rest of Western Europe;
favors a nuclear freeze and the closing of US nuclear bases in the
United Kingdom, and supports the inclusion of British forces in arms
control negotiations, aiming for an eventual phaseout of the Polaris
program. Britain would, during the 4 to 5 year tenure of a Labor
government, reject nuclear weapons in favor of a “non-nuclear
defense strategy.”

We believe that a majority Labor government, under
pressure from the Left, probably would attempt to implement this
program. The Left's position would be supported by Labor leader
Foot, a long-time proponent of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament
(CND) who continues to voice his support for its principles. In
addition, changes in party rules would now enable leftists to
force their policy views on Members of Parliament. According to
the US Embassy even moderates in the party attack the Trident
program as too expensive at a time of social spending cuts, call for
the British to include their own nuclear forces in arms talks, and
demand rejection of INF or at least a “dual key” system that
would place US nuclear weapons in the UK under the joint control of
London and Washington.

Most disheartening from the standpoint of US interests
are the public statements of Shadow Foreign Secretary and Deputy
Party leader Denis Healey. Healey, who once said to the press he
would not serve in a Labor government committed to unilateralism,
has apparently decided to appease the left by publicly attacking US
arms control policy, denouncing Trident, and denying he ever
supported the NATO INF program. The press reports that Healey has
said also that he does not in principle oppose ending Polaris or
closing US bases, so long as it is done by negotiation with
Washington and with the UK's allies. Healey's friends in the party
argue to US Embassy officers that, despite this stance, he is hoping
to “keep Britain's nuclear options open” - specifically
to retain Polaris as long as possible and to keep US nuclear bases
in the UK. To prevent or delay implementation of leftist policies,
they maintain, he will count on pressure from the UK's allies and on
the spinning out of negotiations over a period of years.

Thatcher probably would first seek support from the
Nothern Irish Unionist group, which will probably win about 12 seat
in June. The Unionists would be interested mainly in the Irish
question and probably would have few if any demands on foreign or
defence policy. The Alliance, on the other hand, has
demonstrated intense interest in foreign policy and defence issues
in its election manifesto and could try to influence the Tories'
policy if it held the balance power. It has been skeptical on INF
deployment – although it does not dismiss this option outright –
and could seek a delay pending the outcome of the Geneva talks. At
press conferences and in talks with US Embassy officers SDP defense
spokesman David Owen has called for a “dual key” requirement.
The Alliance program indicates it also would call for the
cancellation of Trident on grounds that it is too expensive.

If Labor wins a plurality, it also could either try to
rule from a minority position or negotiate the support of a small
party – most likely the SDP-Liberal Alliance. The Alliance, which
has indicated a willingness to throw its support to either the
Tories or Labor, probably would try to work with the Labor right
wing to revamp the policy of unilateral disarmament and to moderate
the anti-American tinge of Labor policies. This would probably lead
to bitter infighting in Labor ranks.

It
is almost certain that today, the US intelligence will be monitoring
closely Jeremy Corbyn, especially after taking the leadership of the
Labor Party.