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28 Issue 550. May 2013
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There are parts of the world that seem locked in endless
conflict. Is the end of conflict in these areas ever possible?
Are some conflicts hopeless?
nothing is hopeless, and yes, the end of conflict is possible.
Words can do a great deal of damage. the phrase Arab Spring
connoted a period of overnight change [in the Middle east]. at
Carnegie, we always say Arab Awakening to make it clear that
what’s involved isn’t a short span of months but the beginning
of a long process. the conflicts in the region won’t be solved in
months or years, but decades. the challenge for those of us
outside is to distinguish between the ups and downs and the
underlying trend. if we’re looking back on this period 40 years
from now, i think we will see it in an enormously positive light.
it is the end of decades of poor governance by governments
that were not interested or capable of meeting their people’s
needs. but getting from here to there is going to be a long
and often conflict-ridden process. in particular, i fear we’re
entering a period when the Middle east is going to be defined
by sectarian violence. We may have 10 years of conflict, and the
great challenge for those outside is to try to intervene and help
in ways that heal this rift rather than deepen it.
How has the Internet and other technology changed the
face of civil unrest?
there has been enormous debate over whether this technology
is simply a new means of action or a fundamental change. i think
at this point it’s clear that while it is a means, it’s a transformational
means. it does inform and make it possible for mass numbers to
come together in a spontaneous way. now, it’s also true that what
is one man’s positive is another man’s negative. governments
can see this as disruptive. this technology can be terribly invasive
of privacy. it empowers criminals and smugglers just as much as
it empowers those fighting for their rights. but in terms of civil
unrest, it is transformational.
For 2012-13, Rotary planned three global peace forums
during which Rotarians, Rotary Peace Fellows, and
community and world leaders exchange ideas and network.
What is the effect of events like these?
these events energize people and give them a sense of what
they can do. at conferences, i am often asked, “What can i do?”
it’s an opportunity to help people develop plans and projects.
When people have a task – call that person, email that person,
organize this in your community – a lot can get done.
Humankind has the capacity to cause mass devastation
with a single nuclear weapon. How real is this threat?
Well, it’s not easy to answer. the underlying tension that made
nuclear war likely between the United states and soviet Union
is far less than it was. Fifty years ago, experts predicted that
there would be two or three dozen nuclear powers by this time.
the fact that it’s been kept to nine is an enormous success.
on the other hand, technological progress makes it easier to
acquire nuclear weapon status, and we do live in an age of
terrorism. the risk that one of these weapons could get into
the wrong hands is still very high.
That’s scary.
it’s true, but it’s a fact we live with. We can’t un-invent
the technology.
Your mother, the historian and author Barbara Tuchman,
introduced a principle called Tuchman’s Law that
suggests that reporting on terrible events like conflict
or crime makes those events seem more pervasive
than they actually are. Do you agree? Is a peaceful
world closer than we think?
i think this is one area where the addition of new media
to old media has made a positive difference. What is
covered in conventional, “old” media is almost entirely
bad things. good news gets some coverage, but not as
much as when something is at risk or goes wrong. With
the massive number of sources that people can go to now,
i think the balance between good news and bad news
Free flow
of information
low levels
of corruption
acceptance
of the rights
of others
High levels
of education
good relations
with neighbors