Early evidence about the predicted unintended consequences of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: a cross-sectional
study of the place of purchase, regular brands and use of illicit tobacco

Cancer Council Victoria, Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Correspondence to Dr Michelle Scollo; mscollo{at}cancervic.org.au

Received 6 June 2014

Accepted 20 June 2014

Published 18 July 2014

Abstract

Objectives To test for early evidence whether, following the standardisation of tobacco packaging, smokers in Australia were—as predicted
by the tobacco industry—less likely to purchase from small mixed business retailers, more likely to purchase cheap brands
imported from Asia and more likely to use illicit tobacco.

Design Serial cross-sectional population telephone surveys in November 2011 (a year prior to implementation), 2012 (during roll-out)
and 2013 (a year after implementation).

Setting/participants Smokers aged 18 years and over identified in an annual population survey in the Australian state of Victoria (2011: n=754;
2012: n=590; 2013: n=601).

Main outcome measures Changes between 2011 and 2013 in: proportions of current smokers who purchased their last cigarette from discount outlets
such as supermarkets compared with small mixed business retail outlets; prevalence of regular use of low-cost brands imported
from Asia and use of unbranded tobacco.

Results The proportion of smokers purchasing from supermarkets did not increase between 2011 (65.4%) and 2013 (65.7%; p=0.98), and
the percentage purchasing from small mixed business outlets did not decline (2011: 9.2%; 2012: 11.2%; p=0.32). The prevalence
of low-cost Asian brands was low and did not increase between 2011 (1.1%) and 2013 (0.9%; p=0.98). The proportion reporting
current use of unbranded illicit tobacco was 2.3% in 2011 and 1.9% in 2013 (p=0.46). In 2013, 2.6% of cigarette smokers reported
having purchased one or more packets of cigarettes in non-compliant packaging in the past 3 months; 1.7% had purchased one
or more packets from an informal seller in the past year.

Conclusions One year after implementation, this study found no evidence of the major unintended consequences concerning loss of smoker
patrons from small retail outlets, flooding of the market by cheap Asian brands and use of illicit tobacco predicted by opponents
of plain packaging in Australia.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0)
license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative
works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/