Ukraine crisis: this conflict is far from over

Given Mr Putin’s conduct during the negotiations the ceasefire can hardly be
said to have been arranged in a spirit of mutual cooperation

After nearly a year of bitter fighting which has claimed the lives of more than 5,000 people and made more than a million people homeless, it will be hard for many people to believe that the ceasefire agreed in Minsk will ultimately lead to the end of the Ukraine conflict.

For a start, we have been here before when, following a similar round of talks last September resulted in the original Minsk Protocol, agreement on an all-encompassing ceasefire came to nothing, when hostilities between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian forces resumed within a matter of weeks amid mutual recriminations about ceasefire violations.

Since then the stakes in the conflict have risen considerably, with the Russians reported to have deployed around 9,000 troops, together with military equipment, into eastern Ukraine in support of the rebels, who are trying to create their own independent state, and Washington responding by giving serious consideration to providing sophisticated weapons to Kiev, including drones and anti-tank missiles.

It is to prevent the deepening crisis in Ukraine developing into a full-scale war between Russia and the West that French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have embarked on their last-ditch effort to bring the conflict back from the brink, even though their initiative has provoked accusations of appeasement from some of the more hawkish members of Washington’s security establishment, including former Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain.

As a result today’s ceasefire agreement will be greeted with deep scepticism by both those who have opposed the Franco-German initiative, as well as many in the West who have sincere doubts about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to observe his end of the bargain.

Indeed, given Mr Putin’s conduct during the negotiations, which have also included Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, the ceasefire can hardly be said to have been arranged in a spirit of mutual cooperation.

The talks in the Belarusian capital took place against a backdrop of continued heavy fighting, with intense shelling taking place around the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, and Ukrainian forces launching their own offensive around Mariupol.

And during the talks themselves Mr Poroshenko was reported as saying he found Moscow’s demarcation proposals for distancing rebel strongholds in the east from the rest of Ukraine as “unacceptable.” Indeed, even after the ceasefire was announced earlier today, Mr Hollande described the deal as a "serious hope but all not done.” Mrs Merkel, meanwhile, left Minsk after 16 hours of bruising talks with Mr Putin without making any comment.

So, while many in the West may breathe a sigh of relief that the imposition of Sunday’s ceasefire might help to prevent a new European war, there is clearly much work to be done by all sides before this poisonous conflict is finally brought to an end.