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17 July 2015

Step Back

I am trying to keep up with all the comments as they come in, trying to allow as many as possible to get through whilst keeping put all the spam (running at about 5 spam for each proper comment). Most of these can be found at the bottom of each post and via the right hand side bar. Occasionally however we get a comment which deserves a posting of its own where it can be read properly and not get missed.

There has, understandably been a lot of excitement over the past week concerning the sale of First’s Plymouth Depot to Stagecoach. Some has shown how little people understand of how the bus industry works, and indeed is regulated. Some has shown that bus driver rumour is alive and well. And there have also been some measured and informed comment. It’s a free world and I for one am grateful that Graham keeps this little bit of it that way.But maybe it’s time to step back for a moment and look beyond the froth.I don’t know the numbers, but the sale looks like a good move on First’s part. It’s a good move from the point of view that numerous non-DDA vehicles no longer need to be replaced, while those which are DDA compliant can be moved to Kernow to oust older stock there. Kernow have enough on their plate, I’d imagine integrating the former Greyhound routes and coping with the extra PVR that brought. Sure First have lost a major engineering base, but as others have said Kernow has been self-sufficient for a while now, and of course management has long known that Plymouth possibly wouldn’t feature in the engineering structure of First in the southwest.So what of Stagecoach, what have they bought? On the face of it they have a depot on the very edge of their network, and not much else. They have chosen to register what appears to be a smaller PVR than currently is run from the depot, although it is suggested that they have some of their own work to move in to take up the slack. No doubt that will ease resources across the rest of their operation, but that in itself raises an interesting point. If their current depots are bursting at the seams, and if the new Exeter facility doesn’t have the capacity to do all the engineering required for the fleet, what was their “escape route” without Plymouth? I know that it is impending redevelopment which is forcing their move in Exeter, but it seems odd to plan a replacement which can’t cope with the work (I don’t know, I’m taking some of what has been said on here about it as fact). So how long has Plymouth been planned as part of the scheme?Many have expressed surprise at the lack of a Stagecoach Plymouth city network, apart from the 2 which as others have said is almost a public “staff bus”. Perhaps this shows how dire things are in Plymouth, that there isn’t room for two operators. Or perhaps it is the “DDA effect” again, Plymouth isn’t worth the investment and there isn’t sufficient slack in the national Stagecoach fleet right now to do anything. But the whole doesn’t quite add up in my mind, I think we are still missing one important piece of the jigsaw. It will be interesting to see what transpires, whenever the jigsaw is complete, perhaps it already is.Finally, I guess we are all here because we like buses. But as Martin Sutton (then MD of Western National) told me at Laira Garage on my first morning as management trainee, “this is a people business”. Let’s spare a thought for the staff at First who don’t know what the future holds. They’ve been facing uncertainty for a long time now, in one form or another. True, they might now see the light at the end of the tunnel, but there is still some way to go yet.

And this blog is also a “people business”, or rather a “one man operated bus[iness]” (to misquote the sign once found on many WN buses), thank you Graham for the updates keeping track of all this, and the extra work of letting all the comments through.

41 comments:

This is a very good summary. I would that it's not just a depot on the very edge of their network but a depot that is in a location that is potentially up for compulsory purchase (although you'd imagine that Stagecoach would have had some clarification on the likelihood of this before going ahead). If anyone's interested, the planning application for the new Exeter depot is available online and from what I recall when I looked at it, it features comprehensive engineering facilities, including the option of a paint shop, which Exeter (or indeed SD) hasn't had for many years. How the design and application ties in with the timeframe for agreeing to buy Plymouth, I have no idea.

What I would add, though, is that as interesting as it is to ponder what the new Plymouth 'network' might be and what will happen in the area going forward, it also makes for a potentially fascinating situation in Cornwall. Why? Because now is the ideal time for First to have got out of both Plymouth and Cornwall simultaneously..... but (as far as it appears) they've chosen not to do so. As it stands, almost anyone could buy the Cornwall operation without any CMA issues - the obvious candidates being Citybus and Stagecoach - and a bidding war would likely have got First a good price. However, if either of those two really do have a serious interest in Cornwall - enough, say, to pick up a few tenders and build a presence from scratch - that will more than likely rule them out of buying First Cornwall, through competition grounds, should First find (as I suspect they might) that running such an operation so distant from everything else is impractical. Thus there would be a golden opportunity handed to the other (and inevitably First would probably get a lower price). It'll be interesting to see who balks first..... after all Cornwall County Council must be desperate for a decent competitor to come along and keep future tender prices down. This will be as interesting to watch, I think, as what happens in Plymouth.

1. There is no imminent likelihood of the depot being compulsorily purchased2. There are no tenders due for SC or PCB to 'pick up'3. To extend their operating areas in Cornwall would require new operating bases, infrastructure, support functions and staff in new areas - more remote from their operations than you assume4. There is no problem with Cornwall being 'remote' geographically. It's only like Aircoach or Slough.5. First's Cornwall business is profitable now the new team have sorted it out ( and the speed of that indicates that it always had the underlying base to be profitable) and it can sustain its own overheads. 6. First has just bought (yes bought, not leased or rented) Summercourt garage from WGs receivers and the entire equipment etc within it and the WG Pollards Mill engineering base, which they have also agreed a lease on.7. First isn't selling Cornwall. Not only is it a profitable business, but they are actually quite proud of the turn around.

Here we go again. Why do you write this rubbish?Who balks (sic) first?What are you on about. If you actually knew anything or had any contact with the Council officers in Cornwall you'd know that they were seemingly happy with the stability that First has brought them. After WG failing dismally to run huge amounts of service with their unreliable fleet, buses now run reliably with properly maintained vehicles. The buses may be old but we all know that many will be gone soon. Why do you feel the need to invent your fantasy scenarios?

The only reason why First sold Plymouth is so that they have an excuse not to invest in a new depot, the reason for that being, the current site is earmarked for redevelopment as part of the new housing development nearby

I suspect that's a little bit simplistic. They'd be compensated for the loss of the site but, yes, there would be significant costs and disruption in relocating. One has to assume that Stagecoach has that factored in, should it come to pass. Plymouth has long been loss-making and there's only so many times First could try recutting their cloth and rearranging the deckchairs. Stagecoach will get away with making cuts as they don't have First's baggage and will be seen as the white knight, at least initially.

Thanks to Graham (on a general basis) and for posting that very insightful and even sensitive post. Good to hear some accurate, detached non partisan analysis. However, thanks also to Graham for not overly screening us from anything other than libels and adopting the belief of Voltaire!

In respect of Kernow, I think First are now quite happy with the situation and will seek to develop and consolidate that business. Similarly, PCB are probably happy seeing SE Cornwall being their territory and Stagecoach solve some of their issues though it seems a complex way of doing so.

Kernow has the potential to be a reasonable if not overly lucrative business for First. It also won't sustain two operators so I don't see why GA or Stagecoach will look further west and Bodmin Moor has long proved to be a natural separation between the Plymouth and Torpoint ops and Kernow proper.

I don't believe the drivers have any idea what is going on at the moment or even what SC plans are in South Devon. The rumour mill will be in overdrive at the moment and comments will be made which individuals may think will happen and that turns into its going to happen. If SC are to do additional routes in Plymouth then it will be against Go Ahead because that is the only bus company that will be running routes in Plymouth. I am sure SC will think long and hard before they start any additional routes especially if they are not interested in Torpoint or Saltash which seemed to do quite well for First. My personal opinion is that SC are more interested in the South Devon operations than Plymouth, but we will have to wait and see.

This sale will make sense to ssw on several fronts. It now has a based to run GOLD and X38 services from either end cutting lost millage and cost. It can also join the Plymouth Dartmouth service to the Dartmouth newton service giving better use of buses and staff and better journey options in the area. Plymouth itself is probably over bussed in areas so a fresh clean start will allow it to put it's buses where it wants not where first tried and not really succeeded before. It also opens up opportunities to expand from Plymouth north and east towards it's north devon operation again giving the opportunity for new routes and a better overall network for devon as an whole. Knowing ssw the depot in Plymouth won't be a problem and if forced to move will find another spot to open a Base I west devon no problem and will probably have a couple of spots eyed up already. My personal view is city bus will have most of Plymouth to itself, ssw will fight on a few city routes but will fight hard on the A38 towards Plymstock and north towards Tavistock and will dip it's toe into Cornwall perhaps with a few tendered routes to start with to see how the land lies with first Kernow.

it all people on here spreading rumor,s and being big headed .my mate drive,s first Plymouth and I seen the letter he got saying sc are takeing over ever thing will stay the same ,routes and fares and drivers jobs are safe ,he drives route 3 and coucail will not have a bus company come in and cut routes that were busy for first we will get newer buses not bran new

Sorry, but have to keep saying this - the council has absolutely no say in this what so ever. It is a sale between two operators. The council might not like it but that's tough.As for the routes, Stagecoach can only run the routes they have registered. So fare they have only registered the routes that have already been reported on these pages. They may indeed register more at a later date, but at the moment, most routes in Plymouth, including the 3 WILL stop on 6th September.

I'm afraid you are wrong....I have a copy of the letter that the First drivers received , nowhere in that letter does it say "Stagecoach are taking over everything will stay the same, routes and fares and drivers jobs are safe"

What the letter does say is around 250 employees will transfer to Stagecoach on completion of the sale and they will transfer under TUPE regulations, based on their existing terms and conditions.It does not mention anything about Routes or Fares.

Stagecoach will have no option but to launch a city wide bus service because if they don't the traffic commissioner won't allow them to take over first in Plymouth as they won't allow pcb to have the monopoly on services

well that's an interesting thought! Its not up to the traffic commissioner though, they just license the services and operators. Its the competition people who have the remit to check competition.

In any case, its not Plymouth that will be the issue for them. They may get involved if they think that SC are now too dominant in South Devon. The Plymouth situation wont come into it as they are not dominant. If Citybus end up running everything in Plymouth because other operators pull out then that's just tough. Just as in North Devon. SC were not allowed to buy the First operation due to the lack of competition but when First pulled out anyway leaving it all to SC there was nothing the competition people could do.

At the end of the day no one can force SC to launch new services in Plymouth. Its purely down to the business decisions by SC themselves.

PCB won't have a monopoly on services. True, they will have some routes to themselves where Stagecoach isn't registering replacements for withdrawn First services, but there are other instances where PCB and SSW services will be operating side-by-side - and the two operators already compete head-on between Plymouth and Ivybridge.

Even in South Devon SSW won't be having things its own way, with potential for competition from the likes of Tally Ho and Country Bus.

Absolutely Graham. Nothing to do with the TC and almost certainly nothing to do with the CMA. The latter may want to take a look but there's really nothing they can do. They wouldn't permit PCB take over First obviously but a new operator coming in (i.e. Stagecoach) is more or less a like for like replacement, a completely different situation to North Devon. Clearly Stagecoach would insist that they will offer competition even if that manifests itself as competition through tenders rather than commercial services (and there's nothing anyone can do to force Stagecoach, or anyone else, to compete commercially on city services). Plus Target and Jacketts also offer an element of competition in the city. The only alternative is that First would just close down and PCB would register anything they thought would be worthwhile. No, far better that CMA leaves this well alone.The lack of understanding of the industry and its regulation, from blog readers, is pretty astounding, assuming that they all have interest in transport or even work in it.

I understand it completely, better than all the rivet counter enthusiasts who think they know better than everyone else & that does include 99% of people on here who have commented. When Stagecoach are ready to unveil their masterplan for Plymouth then we have to be patient until such time as they do, until then stop making guesses that probably completely wide of the mark, nobody knows anything until Stagecoach unveil thier masterplan

When Stagecoach pulled out of Darlington in 2007 and sold the business to Arriva, apart from token competition from Scarlet Band, Arriva had a total monopoly in the town and the Competition Commission (as it was then) took no action with regard to the sale. Therefore using this principle the Competition and Markets Authority would take no action against PCB, even if they had a total monopoly over Plymouth city bus routes, but in any event the CMA would deem that Stagecoach would be a potential competitor.

The Stagecoach position in Darlington was quite ironic, because when they flooded the streets of Darlington with buses in November 1994, apart from running DTC off the road, they declared that another reason for their presence was to stop United (now Arriva) advancing towards a monopoly of all the bus services in the town. The sale of Stagecoach Darlington to Arriva achieved exactly what they intended to prevent - a total monopoly of virtually all bus services in the town!

Anonymous 20th July 2015 at 11:09Re: your first sentence.... Was there really any need for what you said about enthusiasts and those who comment. I'm a mature enthusiast of 60+ years and hope you have not included me in the 99%.As your 99% is so close to 100%, then maybe it is time for Graham to consider not allowing "comments" on his blog.

I am a new member,having so far only made one posting.I do notice that in other forums of which I am a member that posters use pseudonyms,and this makes following a thread and replying to other posters much simpler........surely everyone West of Bristol cannot be called Anon or Anonymous........or are they shy to the point of reclusivity?

Its more by accident than design but this isnt really a forum as such, its a personal blog which has taken on a forum type mantle over the years! I have always resisted the idea of requiring log-in information as I know it would put off a lot of the more interesting comments that appear here. On the whole although people can get a bit carried away at times, it is still friendly. Obviously when peoples jobs are potentially at risk, or at least felt to be under threat, it can all get a bit stressed. There have been one or two comments I have had to leave out, but the vast majority get published.

Yes it is. They wanted a presence in the city and they wanted to contain the spread of GoAhead in the Notth and East. Having the depot now let's the move some Gold and X38 into Plymouth making it more efficient not also lets them take in house their West Country Megabus diagrams and to expand the network themselves.

I think SC will concentrate on the east of the city initially, Plymstock and possibly Plympton and the northern end on the Tavistock corridor , Plymouth to roborough concentrating on the Mutley and Milehouse traffic via P & R services 100/101 and 201 (Plympton). They can then assess where they think they have got chances of best return, not necessarily old First terrotory. EG to the north Whiteigh/Southway and maybe Estover might give bigger returns than say Saltash/Torpoint. With 100 numbers this gives opportunities for say 102 Southway 103 Whitlieigh as extensions to 100/101. NOTE 100's North of city, 200 Plympton/Plymsock, 300;s east of the city boundaries, and later perhaps 400's for the west of the city perhaps!

First staff meeting at plymouth tues eve, some redundancies are in the pipeline, and it seems no more routes are to be registered. No idea of how many jobs to go but it seems torpoint drivers have the most to worry about. Dartmouth & Tavistock jobs seem safe. But who would pay the redundancy, First or Stagecoach.

I've been told by the competition regulator that they will not allow pcb to have the monopoly on bus routes in the city therefore stagecoach have been told to launch a citywide bus service or they will be stopped from taking over first Plymouth

People seem to think of first in Plymouth as some sort of giant operator, they weren't after years of neglect by different managers they were losing money, hence it was sold.It's no suprise to me sc have only registered the 3 routes that I guess where still profitable, the 6,76,3,79 were basically running empty and the the 81 and 1 were only busyish at peak times so no suprise there after first split the 1 and 1a the 1a was always the busier of the two routes.I feel sorry for the drivers who have stuck by first even though the management couldn't give two hoots for them, and now by the looks of it face reduntcies, a friend at cb said they aren't taking on either arm.Maybe it's true that Plymouth isn't big enough for more then 1 operator.

If this is true all that will happen is the same as in North Devon, first pullout and stagecoach register what they want with no takeover. This would mean all first staff made redundant with Sc only hiring the staff it needs to start it's smaller network and there would be nothing the competition authority could do about it.a big win for stagecoach and city bus, a big loss for first nd common sense

When you say you have been told by the Competitions Regulator,what do you mean?Did you meet him in a pub,is he a friend of your cousin..........your post raises more questions than it answers.How does he propose to stop the deal,or to force Stagecoach to register anything they do not want to.Perhaps you can explain further.......or perhaps not.

As Graham keeps saying, the CMA cannot force Stagecoach or anyone else to run competitive services anywhere, that's not how it works. If it did, Stagecoach would no doubt just walk away from Plymouth, as First did in North Devon. How would that help anyone? First can't make money running against PCB, so why would anyone else want to try?

Any news on a service for Woolwell yet. I have heard Stagecoach might extend some of the Park + Rides from the George up there ?

I think that within a few months you may well see some cancellations from PCB so both companies can work freely. Perhaps cancel Tavistock (42) to increase Torpoint now there is no 81 and possibly a withdrawal of the number 4/4a Mount Batten as well to keep SC from moving in on other routes. Maybe even SC taking over another of PCB northern routes perhaps ? PCB will in turn want to play this cooly bvecause they know any move to take on SC would surely mean a big fight back!

some one saying first buses number 3 .It stops out side my houseand lot buser than number 21 bus citbus number 6 is always buser than citybus 8/9 my mum live there 81 torpoint bus is always busy couse I see it all time gone work citybus 32 is empty so this person wants to do there home work bus number 3 take200 a day each bus .and number 6 takes 210 each bus and 81 takes mor than these two my mate a manger at first told me this

Anonymous 1856 aka James dingle, I have done my homework thanks having worked for first and Citybus for 20 odd years I work full time so can safely say I am more of an authority then you peering out your bedroom window counting non-existent passengers.

There's no deal, Stagecoach have put their cards on the table. If PCB now want to reorganise their routes and move drivers/vehicles elsewhere in their network (say to bolster certain routes) that's up to them. We can all speculate what's likely to transpire but it won't happen because of any 'deal'.