High school football: How a district system will impact local teams

With IHSA football set to move to districts for the 2021 season, we looked at a projection for the new system. That's our best projection at this time; however, a number of factors (mapping quirks, 8-man football, teams "playing up" classes, multiplier waivers, success formula) could substantially alter which districts teams are ultimately placed. Here we take a look at how those factors could impact Joliet-area teams.

[Larry W. Kane for Shaw Media]

Before we get into the teams, a couple of quick notes:

• The expected classification is based on the recently released 2018-2019 two-year enrollments for schools, divided by eight classifications. Classifications each have between 64 and 65 schools.

• The section with the number of 2018 opponents projected in a team's classification is to show how similar or different a team's district schedule could be regardless of how the mapping scenario shapes the districts.

Notes: Bolingbrook's schedule might look very similar to what it currently looks like, or it could look wildly different. The Raiders could logically find themselves in any of three districts due to the fact that 51 of the projected 64 teams in Class 8A all come from the Chicago area. The most logical district seems to have Bolingbrook heading west with several members of what currently makes up the Southwest Prairie Conference.

Notes: The Coalers are one team that has a potential district that doesn't wildly alter what they've played for several years. In fact, a potential district rival in two years has been added to the Coalers current schedule as a nonconference date in Bishop McNamara beginning next year.

Notes: It looks like Dwight is in for some significant change. But the Trojans are clearly one team where districts make more sense. The Trojans left the Interstate Eight Conference and joined the Sangamon Valley Conference to get with schools closer to their enrollment. It fixed that problem, but increased their travel. Now they get similar enrollment schools as well as a little better geographic proximity.

Notes: The Hilltoppers are likely looking at a wildly different schedule in the district format. There's a limited number of ESCC/Catholic League teams that are expected to land in Class 5A, and those that do are not natural geographic partners. Only Marian Catholic looks like a team Joliet Catholic could be paired with, and even that doesn't look exceptionally locked in stone.

Notes: While it looks like the Steelmen could see a very similar schedule to what they've had, the real concern is that they will be lumped in with the three teams in the metro St. Louis area that need five other district partners to make eight. It looks like a very real possibility.

Notes: The Tigers find themselves in much the same boat as Joliet Central. The potential remains for Joliet West to have a very similar schedule to what it has right now, but the more likely scenario seems to have the Tigers in that group of teams forced into a district with the St. Louis-area squads.

Notes: Lemont could go in any number of directions. It has geographic links to just about any team in 6A in each direction, but it will probably end up with a few teams from its former conference alignment, but probably not all of them due to the number of teams within a close proximity of Lemont in 6A.

Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 3 (Lincoln-Way West, Thornwood and Thornton).

Notes: A very slight enrollment bump could push the Knights into the Class 8A field (or a slight decline from schools in close proximity to them in enrollment). But if they stay in 7A, the schedule won't likely vary much outside of schools that Lincoln-Way Central has played in its SouthWest Suburban schedule in recent seasons.

Notes: The geographic division in 8A can be hard to break down sometimes with so many teams clumped together in relative proximity. However, it isn't very difficult to see a potential district for the Griffins that not only has long time rival Homewood-Flossmoor but two private school powerhouses in Marist and Brother Rice.

Notes: The Warriors look pretty close to locked into a district along with schools in the south suburbs. And at first blush it looks like the slate softens a little bit for Lincoln-Way West without the problems of some of the Class 8A powerhouses that typically dot its current schedule.

Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 1 (Lincoln-Way East).

Notes: The Porters appear to be stuck in a tough spot. Ideally, they'd like to avoid being placed in a district with the St. Louis-area squads, but if they aren't they likely be shifted to a district with several powerhouse teams that might make playoff qualification an extremely uphill climb.

Notes: While the material above might indicate Minooka has a good chance at maintaining some schedule semblance, that's probably a reach. Because the Indians are the closest 8A school to the St. Louis metro area from both the south and the west, they seem virtually guaranteed to be placed in the same district with those schools.

Notes: The dance between the Class 4A and Class 5A ranks likely comes to an end in the district situation with Morris landing in the 5A classification as things currently stand. The schedule will be entirely new for Morris, largely due to the fact that it has been playing schools in larger classifications for quite some time.

Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 3(Lisle, Wilmington, Reed-Custer).

Notes: There's a chance that Peotone could be pushed toward Chicago in a district, but more likely is a reunion with a few Interstate Eight opponents as well as a renewal with a few other teams that used to be I-8 opponents.

Notes: Plainfield Central and Romeoville are the only two teams currently in the Southwest Prairie that are not Class 8A teams. As such, they will have a schedule that is almost entirely rebuilt. It seems logical that the Wildcats will be linked to the south suburbs, but some trips to the west aren't out of the realm of possibilities.

Notes: Plainfield East could easily find itself in any number of districts. Although the St. Louis teams look like an unlikely link, it can't be entirely dismissed. The Bengals could also be drawn east closer to Chicago or north with Naperville and Aurora-based schools. It should be interesting to see where the Bengals land.

Notes: It seems logical that Plainfield North will be grouped with teams from Naperville and Aurora. But logical doesn't always fly with computer mapping, so it could be a number of groupings for the Tigers. It's entirely possible that all three Plainfield schools in 8A could be sent to three different districts.

Notes: Plainfield South is likely another team in danger of being grouped with the schools from the St. Louis area. The margin is slim between them and the teams in the Joliet area, very slim. If it can avoid that, it will likely be linked with teams from the Naperville area.

Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 1 (Morgan Park).

Notes: Districting is almost certainly going to destroy most of the Catholic League rivalries. Few cases are more extreme that Providence as only four teams in either the CCL or ESCC look to land in Class 6A. And those are not geographic partners in any sense with Providence.

Notes: The Comets' schedule will get mixed up quite a bit, as the majority of Interstate Eight Conference teams are either in 4A or 5A. Some old I-8 opponents like Seneca and Dwight will likely be added to the mix again. But there are a limited number of Class 3A opponents to draw on for Reed-Custer from a geographical perspective.

Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 1 (Plainfield Central).

Notes: As one of just two teams in the Southwest Prairie that won't likely be classified in 8A, Romeoville will be likely looking at an entirely new slate of opponents. There's plenty of options for the Spartans from a geographic perspective, and it will likely be a schedule that limits travel.

Number of 2018 opponents projected in classification: 2 (Dwight, Westmont).

Notes: Like Dwight, Seneca moved on to the Sangamon Valley Conference partly due to being one of the smaller teams in the league. Districting will decrease distance for Seneca, as while a few of the drives will be long, many others will go back to being with the smaller teams they used to play in the Interstate Eight.

Notes: The Wildcats will likely keep a few Interstate Eight rivals, restore some rivalries with some former I-8 mates and tack on a few more teams that they've likely only seen in playoff matchups in previous years. There's a limited number of Class 3A teams that Wilmington can be paired with due to the geography of the class.