Alberta oil sands production to almost double by 2040 – NEB

Now, new oil sands projects can be built with WTI lower than US$ 60/bbl

The National Energy Board’s (NEB) recently released report shows that growth in the oil sands will continue. Raw bitumen production in 2016 averaged just under 2.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d) and is projected to reach 4.5 MMb/d by 2040.

Nearly all currently operating projects are expected to continue operation for decades, reaching 2.9 MMb/d by 2040.

In technical terms this means that they have near zero decline rates. Having this large existing production base means any new projects or expansions will add to total production.

The largest contributor to this growth will be expansions of existing facilities which are projected to add over 1.2 MMb/d. Lastly, construction of completely new or greenfield projects is projected to add 0.4 MMb/d.

In the near term, growth is due to projects coming online that were sanctioned or had begun construction prior to the price collapse in late 2014.

Longer term, growth continues but at a slower pace. This is because the oil price required to incent expansions to currently operating projects, or to construct entirely new ones has fallen significantly in the last two years.

Estimates now indicate that some expansion projects can be built with a WTI price lower than US$ 50/bbl, while new projects can be built with WTI lower than US$ 60/bbl.

In addition to oil sands, two more production supplement reports are also available: crude oil and natural gas.

Each report provides additional data and analysis related to the three cases released with EF2017 in Oct. 2017 and also include production data and analysis from three additional cases including high and low oil and gas price cases to address price volatility.