Wealth Preservation Question

Low interest rates, inflation and history all suggest that investments in equities are the best way to preserve wealth long term.

Let’s stress long term because none of us can make sense of volatility such as this chart from finance.yahoo that shows the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Index this year.

All short term investing in shares creates, for most investors, is excessive fees, loss and stress!

The stress makes our decisions even worse.

Recently a reader responded to the series “Why Half of America Cannot Sleep”.

The reader wrote: Gary, I am not the sophisticated investor. Please indulge me.

As for the Pi annual subscription, I’m inclined to purchase that as well except that I fear I won’t understand any of it. Does it make recommendations that are updated on a (weekly/monthly/quarterly) basis? I’m 76 years and counting so long term investments are probably not in my best interest. Preservation of capital seems to be the better choice. Will your subscription be understandable, of clarity, and updated ever so often so that I can adhere to the recommendations. Your input to these two questions will be appreciated.

My reply to this reader may help you reach your financial goals, more easily, with greater safety and far less stress.

The Purposeful Investing Course (Pi) helps subscribers understand ways to spot good value investments for greater safety and better, long term opportunity, with far less stress.

We always put safety first and focus on long term opportunity because it is the best way (for most of us, the only way) to gain safety.

Merri and I are in our mid 70s, so preservation of capital is a big part of our goal.

But we don’t aim to preserve capital. We know that we have to preserve spending power.

Keeping money intact is not enough. We have to see it grow at least as fast as inflation and inflation has recently been kicking up!

Pi is based on what I do with my stock investments to preserve my capital and make it grow faster than inflation.

Pi is based on the idea that the best way (beyond our own work and effort) to increase the amount of money we have is to invest in the stock market.

This belief is based on a 92 year study by Keppler Asset Management. We can see that the stock market performed much better than government bonds, gold, real estate, T-bills and inflation.

But the stock market is volatile in the short and medium term so here’s the question we must answer. “How do we reduce risk from these ups and downs?”

Another study by Keppler shows that if you invest in stocks for just a year, on average you can make as much as 162% but risk losing as much as 67%.

Personally I do not have to increase my savings by 162% in a year. But I sure would not want to lose 67% of my savings.

So Pi is first of all about how to invest for the longer term because it is safer.

The chart above shows that historically if we held shares for 5 years we reduce risk from a 67% loss to 17.4% loss (average gain also drops from 162.8% to 36.1%). After 10 years the risk is to lose 4.9% and a 20 year hold period eliminates risk of loss.

The chart below shows the odds of not losing. If you invest for just a year, you have a 25% chance of losing and we know that loss could be up to 67%.

If you hold shares for 10 years, there is only a 6% chance of loss and we know that this loss has averaged 4.9%.

These are the basics.

Then Pi looks at ways of improving these odds. First we look at how to diversify. If we hold just one stock or two or three we dramatically increase our risk. So Pi looks at how to invest in country ETFs that track the indices of the markets. We avoid buying any one specific share.

Pi monitors 43 stock markets around the world and looks at how to spot the best value stock markets.

Then Pi looks at how to invest in these markets in the least costly way and how to trade as little as possible.

On average we provide updated information about 4 times a month. Stock market value does not change quickly so there are very few buy and sell recommendations. Since we started Pi in 2015, there has not yet been a dozen trades in our portfolio.

Finally Pi shows ways to organize savings for holding power so you do not want to have to sell shares based on liquidity needs.

Pi is all about avoiding speculation in shares and investing savings, you won’t need for short and medium term liquidity, in the indexes of good value equity markets.

Here are three quotes about value investing that should be considered when you create strategies to fill your financial goals.

“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.” Ben Graham

“Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” – Paul Samuelson

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.'” – Sir John Templeton

Gary

Investing Beyond the Boom

Warren Buffet once warned against the Cinderella effect.

He said “Don’t be fooled by that Cinderella feeling you get from great returns. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know the party must end but nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Cinderella may have lost a shoe when she fled the party to meet a midnight curfew. We can lose much more when we rush from a crashing stock market.

Most investors face emotional dangers that build in rising markets.

Almost everyone feels good.

But the he clock of economic reckoning is ticking.

No wants to see it. Nothing rises forever and especially… not everything at the same time.

Yet no one wants to leave the party until the end.

But many edge closer to the door.

When the clock chimes there could be a stampede even though leaving in a hurry may be the worst way to go.

Here are seven steps that can help avoid this risk.

Choose investments based on markets instead of shares.

Diversify based on value.

Rely on financial information rather than economic news.

Keep investing simple.

Keep investing costs low.

Trade as little as possible.

Make the decision process during panics automatic.

One strategy is to invest in country ETFs that easily provide diversified, risk-controlled investments in countries with stock markets of good value. These ETFs provide an easy, simple and effective approach to zeroing in on value. Little management and less guesswork is required. The expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual funds. Plus a single country ETF provides diversification equal to investing in dozens, even hundreds of shares.

A minimum of knowledge, time, management or guesswork are required.

The importance of…

easy…

transparent…

and inexpensive.

Keeping investing simple is one of the most valuable, but least looked at, ways to avoid disaster. Simple and easy investing saves time. How much is your time worth? Simple investing costs less and avoids fast decisions during stressful times in complex situations where we are most likely to get it wrong.

Easy to use, low cost, mathematically based habits and routines help protect against negative emotions and impulse investing.

Take control of your investing. Make decisions based on data and discipline, not gut feelings. The Purposeful investing Course (Pi) teaches math based, low cost ways to diversify in good value markets and in ETFs that cover these markets. This course is based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

Enjoy Repeated Wealth With Pi

Pi’s mission is to make it easy for anyone to have a strategy and tactics that continually maintain safety and turn market turmoil into extra profit.

One secret is to invest with a purpose beyond the immediate returns. This helps create faith in a strategy that adds stickiness to the plan.

Another tactic is to invest with enough staying power so you’re never caught short.

Never have to sell depressed assets during periods of loss.

Lessons from Pi are based on the creation and management of Model Portfolios, called Pifolios.

The success of Pifolios is based on ignoring economic news (often created by someone with vested interests) and using financial math that reveals deeper economic truths.

One Pifolio covers all the good value developed markets. Another covers the emerging good value markets.

The Pifolio analysis begins with a continual research of 46 major stock markets that compares their value based on:

#1: Current book to price

#2: Cash flow to price

#3: Earnings to price

#4: Average dividend yield

#5: Return on equity

#6: Cash flow return.

#7: Market history

This is a complete and continual study of almost all the developed major and emerging stock markets.

This mathematical analysis forms the basis of a Good Value Stock Market Strategy. The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs.

This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use. Pi reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

The course examines and regularly reports on the hows and whys of seven professionally managed portfolios so we can learn how managers find and invest in good value. The Pifolios are:

Keppler Good Value Developed and Emerging Market Pifolios

State Street Global Advantage Emerging & Developed Market Pifolios

Gold & Silver Dip Pifolio

ENR Advisory Extra Pifolio

Tradestops.com Trailing Stops Pifiolio

As you can see in this image (click to enlarge) the top performing Pifolio we are tracking is the State Street Global Advantage Pifolio was up 43.15%. Here is the breakdown of that current Pifolio.

Learn how to invest like a pro from the inside out.

State Street is one of the largest fund managers in the world and their Global Advantage funds invest in good value shares in good value markets.

In the updates we review each portfolio, what has been purchased and sold, why, the ramifications for high risk, medium risk and low risk investors.

At the beginning of 2018 my personal Pifolio is based on select ETFs in the Keppler Developed and Emerging markets. My Pifolio is invested in Country ETFs that cover seven developed and three emerging markets:

This portfolio has outperformed the US market (S&P 500) in 2017 as the chart below shows.

My portfolio blue. S&P 500… green.

Regardless of economic news, these markets represent good value and have been chosen based on four pillars of valuation.

Absolute Valuation

Relative Valuation

Current versus Historic Valuation

Current Relative versus Relative Historic Valuation

When you subscribe to Pi, you immediately receive a 120 page basic training course that teaches the Pi Strategy. You learn all the Pi strategies, what they are, how to use them and what each can do for you, your lifestyle and investing.

You also begin receiving regular emailed Pifiolio updates and online access to all the Pifolio updates of the last two years. Each update examines the current activity in a Pifolio, how it is changing, why and how the changes might help your investing or not.

Included in the basic training is an additional 120 page PDF value analysis of 46 stock markets (23 developed markets and 23 emerging stock markets). This analysis looks at the price to book, price to earnings, average yield and much more.

You also receive two special reports.

In the 1980s, a remarkable set of two economic circumstances helped anyone who spotted them become remarkably rich. Some of my readers made enough to retire. Others picked up 50% currency gains. Then the cycle ended. Warren Buffett explained the importance of this ending in a 1999 Fortune magazine interview. He said: Let me summarize what I’ve been saying about the stock market: I think it’s very hard to come up with a persuasive case that equities will over the next 17 years perform anything like—anything like—they’ve performed in the past 17!

I did well then, but always thought, “I should have invested more!” Now those circumstances have come together and I am investing in them again.

The circumstances that created fortunes 30 years ago were an overvalued US market (compared to global markets) and an overvalued US dollar. The two conditions are in place again!

30 years ago, the US dollar rose along with Wall Street. Profits came quickly over three years. Then the dollar dropped like a stone, by 51% in just two years. A repeat of this pattern is growing and could create up to 50% extra profit if we start using strong dollars to accumulate good value stock market ETFs in other currencies.

This is the most exciting opportunity I have seen since we started sending our reports on international investing ideas more than three decades ago. The trends are so clear that I have created a short, but powerful report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More.” This report shows how to earn an extra 50% from currency shifts with even small investments. I kept the report short and simple, but included links to 153 pages of Good Value Stock Market research and Asset Allocation Analysis.

The report shows 20 good value investments and a really powerful tactic that shows the most effective and least expensive way to accumulate these bargains in large or even very small amounts (less than $5,000). There is extra profit potential of at least 50% so the report is worth a lot.

This report sells for $29.95 but in this special offer, you receive the report, “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More” FREE when you subscribe to Pi.

Plus get the $39.95 report “The Silver Dip 2018” free.

With investors watching global stock markets bounce up and down, many missed two really important profit generating events over the last two years. The price of silver dipped below $14 an ounce as did shares of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV). The second event is that the silver gold ratio hit 80, compared to a ratio of 230 only two years before.

In September 2015, I prepared a special report “Silver Dip 2015” about a silver speculation, leveraged with a British pound loan, that could increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times. The tactics described in that report generated 62.48% profit in just nine months.

I have updated this report and added how to use the Silver Dip Strategy with platinum. The “Silver Dip 2017” report shares the latest in a series of long term lessons gained through 40 years of speculating and investing in precious metals. I released the 2015 report, when the gold silver ratio slipped to 80. The ratio has corrected and that profit has been taken and now a new precious metals dip has emerged.

I have prepared a new special report “Silver Dip 2018” about a leveraged speculation that can increase the returns in a safe portfolio by as much as eight times.

You also learn from the Value Investing Seminar, our premier course, that we have been conducting for over 30 years. Tens of thousands of delegates have paid up to $999 to attend. Now you can join the seminar online FREE in this special offer.

This three day course is available in sessions that are 10 to 20 minutes long for easy, convenient learning. You can listen to each session any time and as often as you desire.

The sooner you hear what I have to say about current markets, the better you’ll be able to cash in on perhaps the best investing opportunity since 1982.

Tens of thousands have paid up to $999 to attend.

This year I celebrated my 50th anniversary of writing about global investing. Our reports and seminars have helped readers have better lives, with less stress yet make fortunes during up and down markets for decades. This information is invaluable to investors large and small because even small amounts can easily be invested in the good value shares we cover in our seminar.

Stock and currency markets are cyclical. These cycles create extra profit for value investors who invest when everyone else has the markets wrong. One special seminar session looks at how to spot value from cycles. Stocks rise from the cycle of war, productivity and demographics. Cycles create recurring profits. Economies and stock markets cycle up and down around every 15 to 20 years as shown in this graph.

The effect of war cycles on the US Stock Market since 1906.

Bull and bear cycles are based on cycles of human interaction, war, technology and productivity. Economic downturns can create war.

The chart above shows the war – stock market cycle. Military struggles (like the Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War: WW III) super charge inventiveness that creates new forms of productivity…the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, production line processes, jet engines, TV, farming techniques, plastics, telephone, computer and lastly during the Cold War, the internet. The military technology shifts to domestic use. A boom is created that leads to excess. Excess leads to correction. Correction creates an economic downturn and again to war.

Details in the online seminar include:

* How to easily buy global currencies, shares and bonds.

* Trading down and the benefits of investing in real estate in Small Town USA. We will share why this breakout value is special and why we have been recommending good value real estate in this area since 2009.

* What’s up with gold and silver? One session looks at my current position on gold and silver and asset protection. We review the state of the precious metal markets and potential problems ahead for US dollars. Learn how low interest rates eliminate opportunity costs of diversification in precious metals and foreign currencies.

* How to improve safety and increase profit with leverage and staying power. The seminar reveals Warren Buffett’s value investing strategy from research published at Yale University’s website. This research shows that the stocks Buffet chooses are safe (with low beta and low volatility), cheap (value stocks with low price-to-book ratios), and high quality (stocks of companies that are profitable, stable, growing, and with high payout ratios). His big, extra profits come from leverage and staying power. At times Buffet’s portfolio, as all value portfolios, has fallen, but he has been willing and able to wait long periods for the value to reveal itself and prices to recover.

This chart based on a 45 year portfolio study shows that holding a diversified good value portfolio (based on a good value strategy) for 13 month’s time, increases the probability of out performance to 70%. However those who can hold the portfolio for five years gain a 88% probability of beating the bellwether in the market and after ten years the probability increases to 97.5%.

Time is your friend when you use a good value strategy. The longer you can hold onto a well balanced good value portfolio, the better the odds of outstanding success.

Learn how much leverage to use. Leverage is like medicine, the key is dose.The best ratio is normally 1.6 to 1. We’ll sum up the strategy; how to leverage cheap, safe, quality stocks and for what period of time based on the times and each individual’s circumstances.

Learn to plan in a way so you never run out of money. The seminar also has a session on the importance of having and sticking to a plan. See how success is dependent on conviction, wherewithal, and skill to operate with leverage and significant risk. Learn a three point strategy based on my 50 years of investing experience combined with wisdom gained from some of the world’s best investment managers and economic mathematical scientists.

The online seminar also reveals the results of a $80,000 share purchase cost test that found the least expensive way to invest in good value. The keys to this portfolio are good value, low cost, minimal fuss and bother. Plus a great savings of time. Trading is minimal, usually not more than one or two shares are bought or sold in a year. I wanted to find the very least expensive way to create and hold this portfolio so I performed this test.

I have good news about the cost of the seminar as well. For almost three decades the seminar fee has been $799 for one or $999 for a couple. Tens of thousands paid this price, but online the seminar is $297.

In this special offer, you can get this online seminar FREE when you subscribe to our Personal investing Course.

Save $468.90 If You Act Now

Subscribe to the first year of The Personal investing Course (Pi). The annual fee is $299, but to introduce you to this online, course that is based on real time investing, I am knocking $102 off the subscription. Plus you receive FREE the $29.95 report “Three Currency Patterns for 50% Profits or More”, the $39.95 report “Silver Dip 2018” and our latest $297 online seminar for a total savings of $468.90.

Triple Guarantee

Enroll in Pi. Get the basic training, the 46 market value report, access to all the updates of the past two years, the two reports and the Value Investing Seminar right away.

#1: I guarantee you’ll learn ideas about investing that are unique and can reduce stress as they help you enhance your profits through slow, worry free, easy diversified investing.

If you are not totally happy, simply let me know.

#2: I guarantee you can cancel your subscription within 60 days and I’ll refund your subscription fee in full, no questions asked.

#3: You can keep the two reports and Value Investing Seminar as my thanks for trying.

You have nothing to lose except the fear. You gain the ultimate form of financial security as you reduce risk and increase profit potential.