Unimpressed voters still shun Abbott

By Michael Gordon

When Barack Obama observed last week that Julia Gillard was doing an outstanding job as Prime Minister, he was wise to preface the assessment with the words ''from a distance at least''.

Up close, the view is not nearly so positive. Today's Age/Nielsen poll records Gillard's lowest approval and highest disapproval since she toppled Kevin Rudd. And it gets worse. More voters prefer Rudd as Labor leader, Labor's primary vote remains at a catastrophic low and the Coalition has a whopping two-party preferred lead.

Clearly, Labor has lost the first round of the carbon tax debate comprehensively. But is it the knockout defeat some have already called, or has Gillard simply been shaken by the ferocity of Tony Abbott's ''bad-policy-based-on-a-lie'' assault?

My instinct is that it's the latter. This debate has a long way to run. Labor's challenge is to win back those who were the true believers on the need for action on climate change, and the degree of difficulty is hard to understate.

One consolation for Labor is that - at the very time Gillard's standing has taken a hit - Abbott's approval rating has also fallen. Moreover, Gillard retains a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

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In other words, while voters are mightily unimpressed with this government, they are not yet convinced that Abbott would lead a better one.

Another consolation is that - just as Rudd is the preferred Labor leader - Malcolm Turnbull, who lost the Coalition leadership because of his support for an emissions trading scheme, is favoured as Liberal leader. The qualification here is that both Gillard and Abbott are preferred by those who support their parties.

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One certainty is that the fate of Gillard and Abbott will be decided by the carbon tax debate. Gillard may have erred in announcing the framework of her climate change response ahead of the detail, but there will be no retreat, and no Plan B.