SportsLine simulated the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open 10,000 times with some surprising results

by
CBS Sports Staff

Jan 24, 2019
at
8:55 am ET
• 3 min read

The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open has a field of 156 golfers vying for a $7.1 million purse, with $1.278 million going to the winner. The Farmers Insurance Open tee times start at 12 p.m. ET on Thursday from Torrey Pines Golf Course in Southern California, with players like Ollie Schniederjans and Bill Haas among the first to start their rounds. The latest 2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds list Jon Rahm as the Vegas favorite at 10-1, with Tiger Woods, who made his long-awaited return to the PGA Tour in this event last year, going off at 12-1. A loaded Farmers Insurance Open field including Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy and defending champion Jason Day, who are all going off at 14-1, have high hopes as well. Before locking in any 2019 Farmers Insurance Open picks of your own, be sure to check out the PGA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.

SportsLine's prediction model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has also been spot-on early in the 2018-19 PGA Tour season. It was all over Rahm (12-1) at the 2018 Hero World Challenge, projecting him as a top contender from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the 2018 CJ Cup earlier this season. Anyone who has followed the model is up big.

Now that the field for the Farmers Insurance 2019 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, an eight-time winner at Torrey Pines and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles this week and doesn't even sniff the top 10.

Woods is making his 2019 PGA Tour debut this week at Torrey Pines, a course where he has won on eight different occasions, including the 2008 U.S. Open. The seven-time Farmers Insurance Open champion enters this week's PGA Tour event as the No. 13 golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings after an extremely successful 2018 campaign that saw him record seven top-10 finishes, including his 80th career PGA Tour victory at the Tour Championship.

However, Woods' last Farmers Insurance Open victory came all the way back in 2013. He also finished last season ranked 82nd in greens in regulation percentage (67.40) and 127th in driving accuracy percentage (59.35), which could cause trouble this week at Torrey Pines. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded Farmers Insurance Open field than the 14-1 premium he's commanding.

Another surprise: Tony Finau, an 18-1 long shot, makes a serious run at the title. He's somebody to target if you're looking for a big payout.

Finau is an emerging star who has played extremely well recently, especially in this tournament. He's logged four top-25 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open in his career, including a sixth-place performance last year at 7-under, just three shots off Day's tournament-winning score.

Finau is coming off a second-place finish in the Hero World Challenge and collected 11 top-10s overall last season. Now with an Official World Golf Ranking in the top 10 and a FedEx Cup ranking of No. 16, Finau is a value pick you should be all over at Torrey Pines. He'll tee off at 1:40 p.m. ET and ranks No. 1 in driving distance on the PGA Tour at 320.6 yards. as well as No. 8 in birdie average (5.25). He has all the skills needed to shoot up the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard in a hurry.

Also, the model says five additional golfers with 2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds of 18-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.