WAR IN THE GULF: Washington; Cheney Cautious on Declaring Early War Success

By PATRICK E. TYLER, Special to The New York Times

Published: February 5, 1991

WASHINGTON, Feb. 4—
As progress continued to defy measurement in the air war against dug-in Iraqi forces, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney cautioned today against pronouncing early military successes because "there is a great deal of uncertainty" ahead.

Mr. Cheney reported on the progress of the war in a speech to the American Mining Congress in Washington and to Pentagon reporters during a briefing on the 1992-93 military budget.

At the Pentagon, Mr. Cheney refused to characterize how much progress had been made in hurting the fighting ability of the well-entrenched Iraqi Army and said that "from the very beginning" the Pentagon had "assumed that at some point we would have to send in ground forces in order to liberate Kuwait."

But he added that such a ground campaign would occur only after a Presidential decision and after "we've taken maximum advantage of our capability to use our air forces." 'No Drop-Dead Date'

Addressing the coming decision on the ground war, Mr. Cheney said: "We have not established any sort of artificial timetable. There is no drop-dead date, if you will, out there by which we feel we have to act. That decision simply hasn't been made yet, and it will await developments."

Speaking to the mining executives at noon, Mr. Cheney said it was important for the Bush Administration and for the military not to overstate their achievements in the Persian Gulf war, where United States and allied forces have scored successes against Iraq's air, missile and naval forces but have not yet engaged the Iraqi Army in a major ground campaign.

In a separate appearance, President Bush insisted that the war "is going according to plan" and that the United States and its allies "are going to set the timetable for what lies ahead and not Saddam Hussein."

He added: "I have confidence that it is going the way we planned, and there have been no surprises and there will not be any quick changes. I just feel we have to go forward and prosecute this to a successful conclusion." Details Yet to Come

In the third week of bombing focused on the best-equipped and most highly trained Republican Guard troops and army tank division forces, Mr. Bush and his top national security advisers have been unwilling and perhaps unable to describe in any detail to the American public how well the allied military forces are doing in their effort to destroy the Iraqi forces.

After the first week of the air campaign, Gen. Colin L. Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that the Pentagon strategy was to "cut off" this elite force and then "kill it."

"No one should assume that the remainder of the campaign will be easy," Mr. Cheney said today. "We have been, again, careful not to set artificial deadlines or to impose limitations on the kinds of scenarios we foresee unfolding in the future, simply because there is a great deal of uncertainty, but also because we didn't want to create false expectations that could not be met."

Mr. Cheney said that his guidance from the President was to proceed with the air war in a "very cautious" and "very methodical manner" before recommending that the war go to the next phase, a full-scale ground attack against the 510,000-man army Mr. Hussein has fielded to protect his grip on Kuwait.

After last week's attempt by Mr. Hussein to embarrass the allies with his one-day occupation of the Saudi border town of Khafji, Mr. Cheney showed renewed apprehension about potential battlefield reversals and surprises.

"There's always the possibility," Mr. Cheney said, referring to President Hussein, "that he could launch some kind of massive air strike," sending all of his planes at once against Saudi Arabia, Israel or American forces in the region. What Iraq Retains

Later, at a Pentagon briefing, Mr. Cheney elaborated on the Iraqi threats that remained: "He's still got some Scud capability; he's got chemical weapons that he's not yet used. We still worry a little bit about an Exocet or Silkworm attack on our shipping."

And aside from these threats, Mr. Cheney added, "he's still got a very large army, and this was the world's fourth-largest army, and a big portion of it is in Kuwait, and we will not have achieved our objectives until it is out of Kuwait and so I would not at this point underestimate the amount of work that needs to be done."