Thursday, January 21, 2010

This is Piper from Lazy Eye Theatre here to talk some Oscars. For good or bad, Nat has asked me to help out while he is away. So here we go.

The Academy has taken a cue from Jessica Lang and gotten themselves a face-lift, and if you ask me, it ain't pretty. Come Oscar nom time, instead of the usual five pictures, we're going to see ten.

In the past where there has been exclusion, now there will be compromise. Out will be the talks of the one picture that got away, In will be the rants about the several that should be let go.

But I will admit, there is some intrigue involved in trying to guess what the ten supposed best pictures will ultimately be. Or at least some good fodder for a post. For me, the first four are no-brainers. You'll have your Avatar, your Up In The Air, Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. But what of the next six?

The Bizarro:It's ComplicatedThe Hangover(500) Days of SummerAlvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel

So am I crazy? Have I missed something? Give me your ten and come nom time we'll see who's right. And as a bonus, I'm taking guesses on how long the already too long show will be with the inclusion of five more pictures.

I did a few things differently. Everyone seems to be putting Christoph Waltz in Best Supporting Actor, but I make the argument that he belongs in the Best Actor category (think Anthony Hopkins in LAMBS). I'm also really surprised that Jackie Earle Haley isn't being talked about for THE WATCHMEN, one of the most buzzed about supporting performances of the first half of the year.

The Hurt LockerUp in the AirUpPreciousThe Lovely BonesAvatarDistrict 9An EducationNineThe Last Station

I'm not as confident about the last 4. I feel like District 9 is peaking at the right time. An Education is the big question mark for me, and very well may be bumped for Invictus or The Blind Side. Nine is flashy enough and backed by the Weinsteins enough to still get in, for better or worse. And The Last Station feels like the kind of biopic/period piece they'd really gravitate to.

And for crazy choices, I'm still pushing for Coraline and Where the Wild Things Are. If it weren't for Up, I feel like Coraline would have a shot at the Top 10.

What about A Serious Man?That was, by far, my favorite American this year. also, how about Where the Wild Things Are?i think the foreign film race is much more interesting this time, maybe every time, i don't know

Oh man, having The Blind Side as one of the nominees would be...*sigh*...depressing.

The Last Station and The Lovely Bones are dead as dead can be in the Oscar race. They won't show up, and neither will Nine. Harvey Weinstein may be an amazing Oscar campaigner, but he is not a miracle worker, and he's probably abandoned that film film for Inglourious Basterds anyway.

If I had to guess, the final ten (for better or worse) will be:

An EducationAvatarDistrict 9Fantastic Mr. FoxThe Hurt LockerInglourious BasterdsPreciousA Serious ManUpUp in the Air

I'd say A Serious Man and the animated films are the most vulnerable, with (500) Days of Summer, The Messenger and Where the Wild Things Are being potential upsets.

An EducationAvatarDistrict 9The Hurt LockerInglourious Basterds PreciousA Serious ManStar TrekUpUp in the Air

The Last Station, Invictus and Nine didn't get any major BAFTA nominations and that's not a good sign. But I've heard from my Academy Member that The Blind Side has some votes but not as #1 (which is what's important).

1. Avatar2. The Hurt Locker3. Inglourious Basterds4. Up in the Air5. Precious6. An Education7. Up8. Invictus9. District 910. A Serious Man

I think the first 5 are locked in. Numbers 6 and 7 are probable. Then, the other three are on the bubble right now.

I think any of these movies could knock out any of the bottom three: (listed from the movie with the best chance to the smallest chance)

Crazy Heart - Probable Best Actor win + nominations for Screenplay and Song and slight chance for Supporting Actress. Plus, it seems to be peaking at the right time, and got other guild mentions.

Nine - Seems like it's out, but it's probably still going to pick up many technical nominations. Plus, it has Harvey behind it, and it does have a legendary cast.

A Single Man - Could get in, but might be confused for the other Man. Plus, Colin Firth's buzz is fading, and Julianne Moore couldn't even get in with SAG or BAFTA, :( .

Julie and Julia - I could see a lot of older members of the Academy liking the film. Plus, with the unofficial Oscar theme about movies that made money this year that's a plus for it too.

500 Days of Summer - The younger voters could go for it. It didn't help that it couldn't even win the Best Comedy/Musical Globe though. So The Hangover may siphon votes from it with the Oscars too.

The Messenger - It's probably too small, but I kept reading over and over again at various sites that it was going to breakthrough insert award name here, and it didn't happen. Perhaps it will finally happen since I could see nominations for Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. Plus, Freeman and Invictus don't seem that probable now. Not that Ben Foster would actually make it in since he hasn't shown up anywhere else, but until nomination morning, I'm loving the fact right now that maybe there's a possibility that they won't give filler nominations to a movie just because it was directed by Clint like they did last year.

Okay seriously, that's an awesome name. I'm not sure that I have anything else to add but the fact that on a scale of 1 to 10, that's a 23 on awesome name-ness scales.

But in response to your comment about The Messenger, I'm going to guess that in back of most of the Academy's heads is going to be "don't be like The Golden Globes... don't be like The Golden Globes..." especially now with the 10 pictures. So I think there will be some good or bad surprises that zag from the Foreign Press.

Oh, and just FYI to everyone. I'm working with a director who just became a bonafide Oscar voter and I told him to go Fantastic Mr. Fox up and down the line.

It may be just me, but I have a sinking feeling The Hangover is going to get on that list. It had record breaking numbers this summer and won a Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical (again, WTF).

The thing with this list of ten is it seems really easy for a movie like The Hangover to sneak on that list. People don't even have to put it on their top tier. As long as enough people have it down, then it's in, and it did make a shitload of money.

The Hurt LockerPreciousAvatarUp In the AirInglorious BasterdsInvictusAn EducationCrazy HeartNineThe Hangover

-I think Crazy Heart has enough momentum with the nominations and Golden Globes win to sneak in here. I really want Up to be on that list, but feel like it's going to be forgotten. Hell, we don't even know where WALL-E was in the rankings last year.

Boy, I hope you're wrong about "The Hangover" Denzel...I just don't understand the love for that movie. It had potential and some good situations, but squandered it with a lackluster script (specifically the dialogue). And there it was garnering a Golden Globe nom for screenplay AND now it gets a BAFTA nom for that too. Baffling.

Thanks for talking up "Fantastic Mr. Fox" Piper. I loved that film. If both Up and FMF made the ten, that would be terrific.

Piper, it's also nice to see you all cleaned up, shaved and in a collared shirt while hanging out at Nathaniel's place. Not like the pig sty at Lazy Eye - I mean it's great to hang loose, kick back and let the dishes pile up, but you were really letting yourself go, you know?

My current thinking is:

The Hurt LockerAvatarAn EducationPreciousUp In The AirInglourious BasterdsA Serious ManInvictusUpNine

I think Precious should be apart of the no-brainers. I mean it was the first movie to be a lock for a best picture nomination even if the buzz subsided quite a bit. And how is invictus obvious? I'm not even sure Morgan freeman will be nominated anymore(Thank God!)and jeez, I think you "on the bubble" is all wrong. But I could be wrong.

I've thought long and hard on this one, and I think I've come up with a "winning" list (though if it were up to me, this list would be completely different):

AvatarAn EducationThe Hurt LockerInglourious BasterdsInvictusNinePrecious: Based on the Novel Push by SapphireA Serious ManUpUp in the Air

(500) Days of Summer, Where the Wild Things Are, and especially District 9 should be in there, but I'm not expecting much. I'm also still on the fence about Nine, but I can totally see the academy doing something stupid like that.

I think Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones are all dead in the water. Up seems kinda buzz-lacking for some strange reason. District 9 is hella peaking, and The Hangover probably just got a huge Globes boost. So here goes, in order of lock-edness...

Mortal Locks:AvatarThe Hurt LockerInglourious BasterdsUp In The Air

Almost Guaranteed:Precious: Based On The Novel 'Push' by SapphireAn EducationDistrict 9 (There, I said it. Whatcha gonna do, cry about it?)

The Final Three:UpA Serious ManThe Hangover

A Single ManCrazy HeartStar TrekInvictus(500) Days Of Summer

There. I hope you liked it. But, I would like to offer, that if Watchmen had come out in November, Jackie Earle Haley would be well within the running for Supporting Actor and the film would probably be right above A Serious Man in the Best Picture race.

@ Piper - Um, I did pick AN EDUCATION. THE LOVELY BONES simply isn't a very good movie, and most industry people have reacted the same way about that film. FANTASTIC MR. FOX was a good movie, but it doesn't have any heat on it.

Okay seriously, that's an awesome name. I'm not sure that I have anything else to add but the fact that on a scale of 1 to 10, that's a 23 on awesome name-ness scales.

Thanks. :) I always think I come up with the worst usernames, so your compliment means a lot. I remember I did just thought of it because Nathaniel did an entry on Ridley Scott making a movie based on Monopoly. (I don't know if that's still happening or not now.) I think before that I just posted anonymously, but I finally stopped being lazy and registered. I was very curious as to what Nathaniel's favorite game piece was, I think he said it was the thimble, and then I figured that I might be a little too board game obsessed if I actually just had to know that.

But in response to your comment about The Messenger, I'm going to guess that in back of most of the Academy's heads is going to be "don't be like The Golden Globes... don't be like The Golden Globes..." especially now with the 10 pictures. So I think there will be some good or bad surprises that zag from the Foreign Press.

You might be right. I remember Nathaniel discussing the possibility that voters were zig zagging on purpose lately because of all the awards that try to mimic them instead of doing their own thing. For instance, I remember last year obviously the big thing was The Dark Knight not getting in, and Kate Winslet being nominated for only one category and only for leading. I forget what the zig-zags were before that. Maybe Tommy Lee Jones and Laura Linney showing up.

I hope Fantastic Mr. Fox could be one of those surprises too, but I think at most they only allow one animated film in. I'm not too positive about Up either, but in a 10 picture year, I think it can make it in as a make up for WALL-E last year and again because of the unofficial theme being nominating movies that made a lot of money.

However, even with that theme, I can't see The Hangover, Star Trek, or The Blindside getting into the top 10. They want to go populist, but it's still the Oscars, so I expect Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Up, and maybe District 9 will keep the people that wanted more populist movies in the mix happy while not becoming the People's Choice or MTV Movie Awards (at least not yet).

There. I hope you liked it. But, I would like to offer, that if Watchmen had come out in November, Jackie Earle Haley would be well within the running for Supporting Actor and the film would probably be right above A Serious Man in the Best Picture race.

Really? If The Dark Knight couldn't get in, I don't think Watchmen had any chance at all even with a 10 nominee year and if it would have been released later on. TDK got pretty solid reviews much better than The Watchmen, made a lot more money than The Watchmen which was considered a disappointment, had support from most of the guilds, a probable Supporting Actor win already in the bag, and more importantly a more prestigious cast and director attached to it.

Can I just ask, WHERE IN GOD'S NAME DID ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE SQUEAKUEL come in??? That shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as any of the other films...

...here's what I think...

AvatarDistrict 9An EducationThe Hurt LockerInglourious BasterdsInvictusNinePrecious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by SapphireUpUp in the Air

...not feeling A Serious Man. A screenplay nod is likely, but I really don't think the passion is there for a best picture nomination. Could be wrong...

...I know Nine has bombed critically and financially, but in a field of 10, I feel like it has enough passion from the tech groups and some of the actors branch (they did nominate it for best ensemble) to make it into the final 10. But it's very vulnerable.

District 9 is gaining momentum. I think there are a lot of supporters for this film, and it will just squeak by Star Trek for the final 10. I'd be ecstatic if it got a best director nomination, too.

i know everyone wants these crazy things to happen (like 3 sci-fi pics nominated out of 10 which many people seem to be predicting) but i just can't see Oscar completely having a presonality transplant.

District 9 DOES seem to be on fire at the moment. BUT they don't like movies like that so... we'll see.

I just think that, with a more Oscar-friendly release date, Watchmen could have had said Guild support and most likely much better box office. Maybe not best picture, but supporting actor for sure. Ah well. No reason to dwell on the what-if's.