In addition, the Financial Planning Association recently gave an award to an article in its official journal that used probability statistics to make the case that the insurance is a better deal for women than for men when compared with investing money that would have gone to premiums in the financial markets. Meanwhile, an AARP survey of 1,456 adults 45 and older released in December found that fewer than one in 10 could reasonably estimate the cost of nursing home care and more than half believe, incorrectly, that Medicare pays for assisted living services. This is a failure to communicate long-term care's real benefits, a lobbying group for the industry says.

This month the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance in Westlake Village, Calif., issued a study of its own that it says illustrates how consumers are, indeed, receiving value from the insurance.

The group, which estimates that 8 million Americans now have long-term care insurance, said the industry paid $3.3 billion in claims last year, the highest payout ever. And more consumers are using the insurance to pay for in-home care instead of nursing home facilities, the group said.

"People think they won't need long-term care or that the insurance may not be beneficial, but the opposite is true and the increasing amount of benefits paid to policyholders validates the important role this protection plays," said Executive Director Jesse Slome.

Analyzing industry data, the group found that about a third of benefit payments were allocated to home care rather than for nursing homes. A persistent consumer misconception is that the insurance is only for nursing homes, Slome said.

So what message should consumers take from these drastically opposite points of view?

Today's long-term care insurance products are offering new ways to customize premium payments and benefit levels that can make them more attractive than the models used for previous studies, insurance advocates said.

And in the case of the academic study on probability of usage, consumers should look at the findings as a way to modify the type of bells and whistles on a policy--not to roll the dice and try to beat the odds of needing the insurance, said one of the study's authors.

"Long-term care [insurance] is probably worthy of purchase, but based on probability it just may not be as good a deal for men as it is for women," said Joel Gold, a financial planner and University of Southern Maine finance professor.

Comparing men's and women's likelihood of needing long-term care with the cost of premiums and the lost opportunity that money would have conceivably earned in the financial markets, Gold and two colleagues concluded that women's higher probability of using nursing care made the insurance more cost effective for them.

That said, for people who do end up needing in-home assistance or care in a nursing facility, the insurance can be vitally important, Gold points out.

In fact, he has a long-term care insurance policy himself.

The research on probability of use simply points out consumers' need to look at their risks objectively and buy a policy that suits their budget and needs, Gold said. If your budget can handle a year or two of nursing care, but you want to insure your nest egg against a very long and costly stay, there are policies with long elimination periods and relatively low premiums, he said.

Conversely, some people may view the statistics and see how low the probability of a very long stay is, and adjust downward the number of years a policy will pay. (For himself, Gold said he chose a 90-day elimination period and an eight-year maximum benefit.)

Customizing the right insurance product can result in much different payments, so the bottom line is to pay for exactly the type of coverage you want, experts say.

In just one example from provider John Hancock Financial Services, which recently launched a long-term care plan called Leading Edge, annual premiums for a healthy 55-year-old male might range from $636 to $1,644 for a policy with benefits that automatically rise with inflation. The range in premiums reflects factors such as daily benefit levels, maximum benefit periods and whether the buyer is applying jointly with a spouse or significant other.

E-mail Janet Kidd Stewart at yourmoney@tribune.com.

Have a retirement question? Write to yourmoney@tribune.com, or via mail at Your Money, Chicago Tribune, Room 400, 435 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611. If your letter is selected, we may include you and your question in a future column.

A divided state Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered a new trial in the controversial murder case against Richard Lapointe, concluding that the mentally disabled dishwasher was denied evidence supporting his innocence when he was tried and convicted a quarter century ago for the rape and murder...

FALL RIVER, Mass. -- New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft marched into courtroom 7 at the Fall River Justice Center Tuesday and told jurors that two days after Odin Lloyd was found dead, former tight end Aaron Hernandez looked him in the eye and told him he was completely innocent.

Gov. Dannel P. Malloy wrote an op-ed for Time.com, posted on the site a day after he took a stand against an Indiana law he called discriminatory toward gays and lesbians by banning government-funded travel to the Midwestern state.