Wednesday, February 12, 2014

TOP TWO AFTERSHOCK ALREADY HAVING DRAMATIC EFFECT

One in every eight or nine earthquakes
is followed by an even more powerful aftershock, officially making the first
quake into a foreshock.

And the farther we get into this
year’s political season, the more it seems that the stunning 2012 effects of
the “Top Two” primary election system voters approved two years earlier were
merely a foreshock.

Two years ago, the new system giving
runoff election slots to the two leading primary election votegetters for
California posts produced 28 runoffs matching members of the same party.
In most cases, the more moderate candidate won, as voters from the other party
often decided these contests.

This year, even if intraparty runoffs
should be less numerous, the effects of Top Two are already even more
profound. Start with the run for state controller, where current Assembly
Speaker John Perez and Board of Equalization member Betty Yee figure to contest
an all-Democratic runoff in November.

There
are also the spate of veteran members of Congress who chose this year to
retire, some because their once-safe districts would no longer be so safe for
them, the competition coming from within their own parties.

The retirements will produce several
dramatic contests. But most emblematic of Top Two’s effects may be the
reelection attempt of Democrat Mike Honda in the Silicon Valley’s 17th
District, and races to succeed retiring Democrat Henry Waxman and retiring
Republican Buck McKeon in Southern California.

Honda, once entrenched in a
heavily Democratic district, now has a very well-financed opponent in former
Deputy Commerce Secretary Ro Khanna, a fellow Democrat whose appeal to the
district’s large Asian-American populace may match Honda’s. Seeing this, it’s
common to assume the two will face off in November.

But not so fast. The virtually unknown
Stanford University anesthesiologist Vanila Singh may well enter this race with
a GOP label after her name on the ballot. Unless another Republican gets in at
the last moment, that tag alone could produce enough votes to knock Khanna out
of the runoff.

Things look similar in the 33rd
District covering much of the Los Angeles West Side and several nearby South
Bay cities. Eyes are watering among droves of Democrats who spy an office
without term limits. Already declared as candidates are former Los Angeles
mayoral hopeful Wendy Gruel and state Sen. Ted Lieu, while Secretary of State
Debra Bowen (formerly a state lawmaker from the area) and former Assemblywoman
Betsy Butler consider running.

Independent and former Republican Bill
Bloomfield, who picked up 45 percent of the 2012 vote when facing Waxman, could
benefit from all that. If the gaggle of Democrats fractures the party’s votes,
Bloomfield or fellow independent Marianne Williamson, a bestselling author,
could sneak into the runoff with 30 percent or so of the primary tally.

This
very kind of splintering happened two years ago in the San Bernardino County
district of Republican Gary Miller, who faced another Republican in that year’s
runoff despite his district’s large Democratic registration margin. Miller may
not be so lucky this year.

In McKeon’s 25th District,
covering a wide arc from Lancaster and Palmdale to Simi Valley, former
Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland, who lost a bid for Congress in a
different district two years ago, is widely expected to face fellow GOPer Steve Knight, a state senator from the
Antelope Valley. But if Knight and Strickland split the Republican vote, likely
Democratic candidate Lee Rogers, a podiatrist who drew 45 percent of the vote
last time against McKeon, could oust one of them.

One statewide race – the run to
succeed the termed-out Bowen as secretary of state figures to be similar.
Prominent Democratic state Sens. Alex Padilla of Los Angeles and Leland Yee of
San Francisco (and suburbs) have expected for months to face off in November. A
third Democrat, Derek Cressman, former director of the good-government lobby
Common Cause, and independent Dan Schnur, director of USC’s political studies
institute, are also running.

But
don’t bet against Republican Pete Peterson, the only one here with the GOP
label, making the runoff as the others splinter non-GOP votes.

Even if all these races don’t end up
as intra-party battles -- and they all could -- the effects of Top Two
grow stronger every election year. As it did last time, this will probably have
a moderating influence that can help end government gridlock at both state and
federal levels.

-30-
Email Thomas Elias at
tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising
Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It," is now
available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, go to www.californiafocus.net

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About Me

Thomas Elias writes the syndicated California Focus column, appearing twice weekly in 88 newspapers around California, with circulation over 2.2 million.
He has won numerous awards from organizations like the National Headliners Club, the California Newspaper Publishers Association, the Los Angeles Press Club, and the California Taxpayers Association. He has been nominated three times for the Pulitzer Prize in distinguished commentary.
Elias is the author of two books, "The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government's Campaign to Squelch It" (now in its third edition; also published in Japanese and recently optioned for a television movie) and "The Simpson Trial in Black and White," co-authored with the late Dennis Schatzman.