While United Nations officials said Tuesday that more than 8,000 people have died in a year of political unrest in Syria, some experts fear the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime may actually be worse than the threat of all-out civil war.

The sudden demise of Syria’s dictator has the potential to expose the Middle East and the world to a massive new threat from chemical and biological weapons.

Syria has been stockpiling chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction since the late 1970s and is widely believed to possess one of the world’s largest inventories of mustard blister agent, sarin nerve gas and possibly VX nerve agent.

“The country is a chemical powder keg ready to explode,” says a report released last week by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

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Hundreds of tonnes of chemical weapons, chemical warheads for medium-range, Soviet-built Scud B and C ballistic missiles, air-dropped bombs and conventional artillery shells are believed to be stored in about 50 sites around Syria.

At least four chemical weapon production facilities are located in the towns of al-Safira (12 kilometres southeast of Aleppo), Hama, Homs and Latakia, while massive munition storage depots are located at Khan Abu Shamat (northeast of Damascus) and Furqlus (just east of Homs).

“The situation in Syria is unprecedented,” said Charles Blair of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in a recent report for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. “Never before has a WMD-armed country fallen into civil war.”

SEE AN UP TO DATE PHOTO GALLERY SHOWING THE DESTRUCTION IN SYRIA

While there was considerable concern internationally that Libyan chemical weapons and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles might fall into the hands of terrorists during last year’s fight to depose Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, the threat posed by Syria is exponentially higher.

“The Libyan chemical stockpile consisted of several tonnes of aging mustard gas leaking from a half-dozen containers that would have been impossible to utilize as weapons,” Mr. Blair said. “Syria likely has one of the largest and most sophisticated chemical weapons programs in the world.

“Should Syria devolve into full-blown civil war, the security of its WMD should be of profound concern, as sectarian insurgents and Islamist terrorist groups may stand poised to seize chemical and perhaps even biological weapons.”

Defections from Syria’s armed forces and attacks on government weapons storage depots by rebel soldiers all pose a threat to chemical and biological weapon stockpiles. Deadly chemical and biological agents could escape into the atmosphere as the result of an attack or the weapons themselves could fall into the hands of insurgents or terrorists.

“If Syria collapses into chaos or the army splits between Assad’s fellow Alawites and the majority Sunnis, a key question will be the fate of these chemical weapons and their delivery systems,” said former CIA officer Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution. “Terrorist groups, such as Assad’s friends, Hezbollah and Hamas, would love to get sarin warheads.”

At least six terrorist organizations have long maintained headquarters in Syria over the years, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Since the country plunged into conflict last year, al-Qaeda-affiliated fighters from Iraq have also been streaming into Syria at the request of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

“The question is when, not if,” the Assad government is brought down, said Israel’s armed forces planning chief Major General Amir Eshel. “And the big question is what is going to come the day after.”

“The immediate concern is the huge stockpiles of chemicals, biologicals, strategic capabilities, that are still going into Syria,” he said. “I don’t know who is going to own those the day after.”

Should Mr. Assad feel his grip on power is slipping, he could easily transfer some of his chemical and biological weapons to allies such as Iran and Hezbollah.

“Should centralized authority crumble in Syria, it seems highly unlikely that the country’s 50 chemical storage and manufacturing facilities — and possibly biological weapon repositories — can be secured,” said Mr. Blair. “The U.S. Defence Department recently estimated that it would take more than 75,000 U.S. military personnel to guard Syria’s chemical weapons. This is, of course, if they could arrive before any WMD were transferred or looted — a highly unlikely prospect.”

In the early days of the Iraq War, in spite of the presence of more than 200,000 coalition troops, insurgents managed to make off with more than 330 tonnes of military-grade high explosives that were used in improvised explosive devices for the next decade.

Last week, General Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a U.S. Senate committee that U.S. officials are keeping a close watch on Syrian army defections and the command structure of the Syrian army “to make sure they [chemical weapons] are still under the control of the regime.”

Using satellites and other technology to track Syria’s arsenal, U.S. officials are also reported to be making plans with regional allies to develop a strategy to secure the weapon stockpiles in an emergency.

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported U.S. and Jordanian officials are developing plans for Jordan’s special operations forces, acting as part of a larger Arab League peacekeeping mission, to go into Syria to secure more than a dozen weapons sites.

“The best possible outcome, in terms of controlling Syria’s enormous WMD arsenal, would be for Assad to maintain power,” said Mr. Blair of the FAS. “But such an outcome seems increasingly implausible.” National Postpgoodspeed@nationalpost.com