Bill Tieleman is one of BC's best known communicators, political commentators and strategists.
Bill writes a politics column Tuesdays in 24 Hours newspaper and The Tyee online magazine.
Bill has been Communications Director in the B.C. Premier's Office and at the BC Federation of Labour.
Bill owns West Star Communications, a consulting firm providing strategy and communication services for labour, business, non-profits and government.

By Bill Tieleman "Each man is afraid of his neighbour's disapproval -- a thing which, to the general run of the human race, is more dreaded than wolves and death."

- Mark Twain

Beneath the raw emotions in the resignation of both the BC Liberal and New Democrat Party leaders lie cold, hard facts -- neither Gordon Campbell nor Carole James could win the next election.

Forget titillating stories about the spitting mad premier or the opposition caucus coup.

And disregard pundits who say the NDP blew a guaranteed election win -- that was never the case.

Instead, examine the reality that forced both out by listening to veteran public opinion researcher Mario Canseco, who analyses the polling, not the politicians.

The Angus Reid Public Opinion vice-president makes it clear that in James' case, her very low personal approval rating of 25 per cent when the NDP was polling at 47 per cent was a strong sign of a disaster ahead.

That's also why with the incredibly unpopular Campbell gone – his approval rating dipped to just nine per cent -- James was trouble-bound.

Parties now neck and neck

In a new Angus Reid poll released Thursday, the NDP and BC Liberals are now tied at 36 per cent each as they seek new leaders.

Canseco says his warning also applies to three Canadian provincial premiers whose personal approval ratings show they aren't connecting to voters, while their opposition leaders are.

"You look at other leaders in the country -- Danielle Smith is way ahead of Premier Ed Stelmach in Alberta, Tim Hudak over Premier Dalton McGuinty in Ontario and Hugh McFadyen ahead of Premier Greg Selinger in Manitoba," Canseco said in an interview with 24 Hours, suggesting all three premiers could be defeated.

"The leader needs to be as close to the voting intention as possible. If you exceed it, fantastic," he said.

That's why Canseco says the 22 per cent gap between Carole James' personal approval and the NDP's standing was bound to create grief.

"If you are 22 per cent behind, it's a very soft vote. There's no emotional connection with voters. It was incredibly weak for her to stay," Canseco said. "It's all about the emotional connection."

Warning signs months ago

In fact, Canseco even predicted the internal party trouble that lay ahead for James back in September, before she unilaterally expelled MLA Bob Simpson from her caucus and before caucus chair Norm Macdonald and whip Katrine Conroy quit in protest over lack of process.

And long before veteran MLA Jenny Kwan blasted James' leadership style in a Dec. 1 public statement.

"Almost half of B.C. decided voters are willing to support [the NDP], but considerably fewer see Carole James as a leader they approve of. If this gap remains, the BC Liberals stand to recover some of their lost support, particularly if Campbell steps down," Canseco said then.

Canseco says four provincial opposition leaders were in deep trouble when Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted a 7,000 respondent national poll last month.

Worst off was the Saskatchewan NDP's Dwaine Lingenfelter, with an astonishing 57 per cent disapproval rating, followed closely by New Brunswick Liberal leader Shawn Graham -- who has announced his resignation already -- at 55 per cent.

But not far behind at 49 per cent each in the disliked sweepstakes were pro-sovereignty Parti Quebecois opposition leader Pauline Marois -- and B.C's Carole James.

Compare that to Alberta Wildrose Alliance Party leader Danielle Smith, who was disapproved by just 21 per cent or Ontario Progressive Conservativeleader Tim Hudak, with only 23 per cent disapproving of his performance, and Manitoba Conservative Hugh McFadyen at 31 per cent.

Polling shows that Smith, Hudak and McFadyen all have real shots at becoming premier in their provinces' next elections, with opposition parties polling ahead of the current government parties.

But here in British Columbia things were very different.

A missed moment

I asked Canseco if he had ever seen both a premier and opposition leader in the same province as unpopular as Gordon Campbell and Carole James were.

"No. That's the interesting part of it Almost 60 per cent of people last time [we polled] said they don't like either option," he said.

The explanation for Campbell's sudden fall from grace is simple -- the surprise introduction of the unpopular Harmonized Sales Tax just weeks after the 2009 provincial election when the BC Liberals denied any HST intentions.

But interestingly, Canseco says the 2009 election was an enormously squandered opportunity for James to potentially win by addressing voters' concerns about the economy -- the overwhelming number one issue at that time -- and how she would handle it if chosen premier.

"This was a moment when she had to say, 'Don’t fear an NDP government -- this is what we'll do,'" he said. "I think she missed out on a big, big chance."

Just how big?

Well, Canseco points out that prior to the 2009 election the NDP was only narrowly ahead of the BC Liberals in opinion polling for a brief time -- in the late summer to fall of 2008, shortly after the unpopular carbon tax was introduced.

And what was James personal approval rating in Aug. 2008? Just 25 per cent, as it was in early Nov. 2010.

40 comments:

Anonymous
said...

I believe Campbell's corrupt sale of the BCR, started the seeds of unrest. The anger towards Campbell and the BC Liberals, just kept growing. The insane taxing, arrogance, thefts, lies, deceit, corruption and Campbell's piss on you attitude, towards BC citizens. You don't want the HST, too dammed bad, you are going to pay it anyway.

Carole James, would have never have the, hate, spite, malice, for the BC citizens, as Campbell has. She doesn't have the cruel, vindictive personality, as Campbell has. However, when Campbell was using, his typical dirty tactics. It seemed everyone was saying, where is Carole, why isn't she doing something about Campbell's treachery? The BC people were not given, something to hold on to. Carole, just wasn't there. It seemed the NDP were silent, and we were on our own, to fight a madman who was kicking the BC citizens in the face. When Van Der Zalm and Bill T. came on the scene to fight for the BC people...We finally felt, someone was there for us, the relief was stupendous.

What Angus Reed polled was what I heard as a frontliner with the HST petition. I had a feeling at that time, that the leadership may come down to removing James before another election. It's too bad it's this late but better than not.

I now feel the NDP have a real chance to be elected. My other hope is we have a leader in the Dave Barrett mould that can really connect with the electorate and blast the FIBERAL scamers and crooks from here to you know where!

The NDP was 20 points ahead in the polls Bill...20 points. It's the voting intention numbers that count. All of your self-justification doesn't negate the fact that it's now a dead heat - with the NDP suffering a massive drop in support among women.

In response to another Anonymous... If the next NDP leader loses two elections then I hope the NDP goes automatically to a party wide vote on their leadership, avoiding the spectacle of another Carole James clinging to power while claiming "they are the best person for the job" when 3 out of 4 people clearly think otherwise. And this automatic review of leadership should happen even if the next leader is another women of partial aboriginal ancestry.

Of course, this being the NDP, I'm sure the party will be fully consumed with other party matters rather than making the necessary rule changes to avoid another Jameslike leadership crisis.

I expect that the NDP is more likely to debate proposals like "revoking the right to vote for men" or some other ultra-PC measure.

BC people, will not forget Harper's part in the HST, come next Federal Election time, he is a snake in the grass. We all know, Campbell is working for Harper. It seems, Canada has produced the worst politicians ever known. Corruption and greed is what governs. Canadians are really getting fed up, with the corruption, in every corner of the country. BC of course, is the most corrupt province in Canada. Campbell gets all of his corrupt friends, to do his dirty work for him. The lies, threats, and the low characters, of these stupid, pathetic people, boggle the mind. BC people, see through all of them. It's time to have a new party, that will not condone corruption. A party that will try and salvage, what Campbell hasn't yet destroyed, and try to repair, what Campbell has ruined. The judicial system, the RCMP, need to be cleaned up. We need to stop, giving Banks, mines, big business, gas and oil company's, billions of our tax dollars. They are, disgusting, bottomless pits of greed. They all lined up at the trough, squealing for the HST as well.

Bill says:Hmmmm - should we give more weight to the opinion of someone who has been successfully involved in several significant provincial and other campaigns or .... Anonymous?

But Bill does not want us to give weight to the opinion of people who have experience in bringing down fractured, tired governments, such as Paul Ramsey, Moe Sihota and Mike Harcourt. Rather, he thinks we should listen to the likes of Bob Williams, whose legacy (near as I can figure) consists chiefly of bringing down NDP leaders.

Bill, you should please just drop the pretense. You didn't like Carole James and you and your friends were going to do whatever it took to bring her down, no matter the cost. This is why, when Provincial Council voted you down, you called it illegitimate or some such thing (despite Corky Evans lauding the democratic-ness of the institution). Had it gone to a leadership review and Carole James had survived it, you would have said the margin wasn't high enough. There was always a plan B.

I'm still waiting for the democratic justification of this. I keep hearing this "end justifies the means" defence - claiming that she was a bad leader or didn't have the support or some other rationalization - but I have yet to read or hear anyone make a rational argument about why it's okay to tramp all over the party's procedures to do it now.

Who knows? Maybe history will judge you favorably. Me, I'd be happy if you'd give up the rationalization and fess up to the fact that you were gunning for her and nothing was going to stop you.

The pollster cautioned that James’ resignation as party leader is likely not a major cause of the NDP’s slide in support among women. She noted that James and Campbell share the same dismal approval rating, just below 30 per cent, in the Mustel Group’s two recent polls.

“Her approval rating was usually higher than her disapproval rating but it switched in our November poll. And in our latest one, it’s eroded even further.” http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Liberals+have+five+point+lead+over+Mustel+poll/3984199/story.html#ixzz18FsCk64U

To Bill at 10:52pm: I'll bet you that in the alternate universe where Carole James didn't step down, the polling results would have been same or worse. Buried at the bottom of today's Vancouver Scum report is the fact that James' dismal results are worse now, which proves that the Mustel poll has nothing to do with her resignation. To boot, it proves that James had little actual popular support. I think the NDP was, and is, in a Catch 22 situation, and at least now has some control over its fate due to the upcoming leadership race.

The BCLiberals are riding a wave of Bye-bye-Gordo and enthusiasm for their race, and the polls reflect this. If the NDP leadership candidates project charisma, a positive vision and a concrete and exciting set of ideas, the NDP will go up. Hope's not lost, yet.

...Buried at the bottom of today's Vancouver Scum report is the fact that James' dismal results are worse now, which proves that the Mustel poll has nothing to do with her resignation. To boot, it proves that James had little actual popular support. I think the NDP was, and is, in a Catch 22 situation, and at least now has some control over its fate due to the upcoming leadership race.

The world of BC politics, where pre-packaged sophistry and self-fulfilling prophecies are the main items on offer.

And it gets worse. What happened to the snap election argument? BC Elections physically cannot do that, so that argument was a premeditated lie.

"And it gets worse. What happened to the snap election argument? BC Elections physically cannot do that, so that argument was a premeditated lie."

How can people (even political people) keep repeating this obvious canard. Are all these people 10 years old or younger and can't remember when usually no one knew when an election would happen until the writ was dropped with a month to six weeks notice for Election Day.

And don't tell me the world has turned on its axis since we've gone to the Yankee style (bad idea) "fixed" election date foolishness.Perhaps you've forgetten (already) how our hero Puffy Stephen, leader of the Canadian Taliban, less than a year after declaring by fiat his own fixed election date (with a minority so-called government to boot), thought he saw his chance and called an federal election NATIONWIDE for 28 days hence.

He even managed to work in some electoral manipulation on such short notice. Not only did he conveniently call the election for the day after Thanksgiving Weekend when many voters would be 1000's of kms from their polling station at grandma's house, but quietly changed the identification requirements so that many weren't allowed to vote even after driving across the country for the opportunity.

Their budgets were reduced when the fixed election date law came in, and they are no longer in a state of constant readiness. They simply could not do an immediate general election, or a province wide referendum, whether you like it or not.

It would take many, many months of increased budgets and hiring for them to be able to hold the event, plenty of advance warning for all other political parties and interest groups.

Campbell and James are leaning to ward the stage exit, so let's move along and gear up to work to cut the new leader for the Libs down to size, and a Interim leader for the NDP. A lot of people are expecting a snap election sooner than later , just after the Libs come up with someone. If the NDP inner circle are convinced there won't be a snap election, why is Dave Barrett writing folks asking for funds right now because" a snap election is a distinct possibility. Light a fire under the powers that be, get a interim leader right now and forge ahead for a new leader or its back to second place again for a party that seems a bit slow in sorting out issues.

Tell me how Puffy Stephen was able to drop a writ and implement a manipulated election within 28 effing days from coast to coast to coast to the border with the failing nation to our south. Get your head out of your nether parts please!

If you hadn't noticed we live in a time of fast communications and transportation - it ain't horse and buggy days, except maybe in your minds!

The dancing is over as the Provincial Council has decided on a day to vote for the new leader. And a Interim leader, well the date is not yet set. Its on the CBC on line news. 90 days and ten bucks gets you a vote

Bill Tieleman and Senator Larry Campbell, former Vancouver mayor

Jim Sinclair, Cindy Oliver, Ken Georgetti and Bill Tieleman

Bill Tieleman's coverage of the Basi-Virk/BC Legislature Raid Case praised by other journalists:

"This outstanding piece of journalism, in The Tyee, is the work of a journalist who has been deeply involved with this issue from the start and this article should be passed on as far and wide as possible."

"Bill Tieleman from 24 hours . . . . If you want to know about this trial and about this case, you have to read his blog – I mean, that’s just all there is to it – it’s required reading if you want to understand the BC Legislature Raid situation."

- Mike Smyth, columnist, The Province

"The Basi-Virk case....you’ve probably sat through more of these hearings and gone through more of the files and written about it than any other journalist in the province."

- Bill Good, host, The Bill Good Show, CKNW/Corus Radio Network

"Tieleman ...has done a first-rate job covering the trial."

- Paul Willcocks, columnist, the Victoria Times-Colonist

"Tieleman, who marries a considerable journalistic talent with one of the smartest political minds in the province, has been writing more web-exclusive material. And his coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is a must-read -- whether you're an insider or an outsider."

"24 Hours, the Vancouver paper that has been leading the coverage, as well as the hints of conspiracy in B.C."

- Norman Spector, columnist, Globe and Mail

"Although the major media in this circumstance has been giving the case significant coverage, Tieleman's reports on his blog have been outstanding.

The entire cut and thrust of legal wrangling and arguments has been covered and is accompanied by considered analysis.....His blog site coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is the most in depth treatment of one of British Columbia's biggest political scandals."

- Bill Bell, columnist, The North Shore News

"Mr. Tieleman has published online dispatches which, freed from the limitations of newsprint space or broadcast time, can run at length. They also remain available for those select readers who become obsessed with a case also known as Railgate.....

In another bizarre twist to a story with no shortage of them, Mr. Tieleman went to work one day in December only to discover his office had been ransacked. Bookcases had been tipped over and papers strewn, but nothing was missing.

To top it off, a press kit for the self-published novel The Raid, written by a retired military officer in Metchosin and featuring on its cover a photograph from the 2003 police raid, had been left in a conspicuous place."

- Tom Hawthorn, columnist, The Globe and Mail

Nobody has followed the Basi-Virk affair over its past five years with greater diligence than local journalist, Bill Tieleman....Tieleman deserves our thanks, a fistful of journalism awards and some merit citation for citizenship.