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Hurricane BUD

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018
Bud has been maintaining a well-defined eye for the past several
hours but recent satellite images suggest some loss of definition.
The current intensity is set to 115 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
current intensity estimate from TAFB. Even though Bud is currently
a powerful hurricane, it is going to pass over ocean waters of
progressively decreasing heat content and lower SSTs. Therefore,
weakening is likely. Gradual weakening should commence later
today, but by Wednesday the rate of weakening should increase as
the ocean becomes significantly less conducive. The official
intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance
IVCN, however the corrected/smart consensus models HCCA and the
Florida State University Superensemble show a more rapid decline in
intensity than shown here. Bud is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low by the time it reaches mainland Mexico.
Bud's movement has continued to exhibit a trochoidal oscillation,
which is typical of major hurricanes. Smoothing through these
trochoidal wobbles gives an estimated motion that is the same as in
the previous advisory, or 315/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged. Bud is moving between a large mid-level
anticyclone centered near the United States/Mexico border and the
circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta. Over the next day or
so, increased ridging to the north of Bud should result in a
slowing of the forward motion of the tropical cyclone. Later, a
trough off the southern California and northern Baja California
Peninsula coasts should cause Bud to turn to the north with some
increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to
the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest multi-model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 18.1N 108.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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