THINK TANK | 2016: Into the Storm by Paul Rogers

The January 2015 briefing, A Perfect Storm?, looked ahead to the potential for a difficult year
in terms of security, environment and the world economy. This briefing uses the
same categories to examine what seemed likely a year ago, what actually ensued
and the possible trends in 2016. It finds that, while the COP21 negotiations on
reducing carbon emissions made better progress than expected in 2015, the
intensification of the war in Syria in late 2015, the associated increase in
Islamic State-linked attacks on western and Russian targets, the increasing
western appetite for renewed intervention in Libya, and this month’s collapse
in Saudi-Iranian relations pose major threats to global security just as the
Chinese economy falters and economic risks are rising.

Introduction

ORG’s security
analysis has long argued that the combination of socio-economic divisions and
environmental constraints together constitute the most substantial longer-term
threats to peace and security, constraints that are exacerbated by a security
outlook that is strongly rooted in the “control paradigm” that suppresses
violent opposition rather than addressing underlying problems. It is in the
context that ORG has analysed the wars that have evolved since the 9/11
attacks.

International
Security

The end of 2014
had seen a considerable increase in Western involvement in the war against the
Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq. The early shock of the Charlie Hebdo
attack in Paris may not have been connected with IS but it had an impact across
the western world and led to an increase in community tensions in France.
During the course of 2015 there was a marked increase in attacks in western
countries or against their nationals that were directly or indirectly related
to IS. These included the killing of tourists at the Bardo Museum in Tunis and
the Tunisian resort of Sousse, the bombing of a Russian tourist jet after
take-off from Sharm el-Sheikh Airport in Egypt and a mass shooting in
California. The greatest impact, though, was the series of attacks in Paris in
November on a rock concert, cafes and bars, killing 130 people. The early weeks
of 2016 saw attacks in Istanbul and Jakarta, the former directly aimed at
foreign tourists. Similar attacks by al-Qaida’s affiliate in the Sahel-Sahara
on upmarket hotels in Bamako (November) and Ouagadougou (January) appear to
have been intended to ‘compete’ with IS, which made significant inroads into
Libya and Nigeria in 2015.

The attacks
overall represent a departure in the strategy of IS which has previously been
focused primarily on strengthening its proto-caliphate in Syria and Iraq,
centred on the northern Syrian city of Raqqa. Now it is involved in direct
conflict overseas and there are competing theories as to the reasons for this
change. One argument is that IS was in retreat in the war against the
coalition, given that the year saw a huge expansion in the air war and the loss
of several towns and cities, most notably Ramadi in Iraq. A counter view is
that though the losses have been considerable, with more than 20,000 IS
supporters killed, recruitment is still buoyant, and taking the war overseas
will actively encourage more Islamophobia and the further marginalisation of
Muslim communities in the West. This, in turn will aid recruitment to the
cause.

In any case,
while the taking of Ramadi by Iraqi government forces was hailed as a great
achievement, close examination points to two more problematic experiences - it
proved exceptionally difficult to dislodge IS from urban areas and only at the
cost of very high levels of destruction, and even since victory has been
announced there are IS elements still active in the immediately surrounding
areas.

Meanwhile,
Russian involvement in the air war in Syria has proved to be a substantial aid
to the Assad regime given that most Russian airstrikes have been directed not
at IS but at other anti-Assad rebel groups. During the coming year Russia is
highly likely to maintain and possibly expand its presence, determined to
ensure that the Assad regime either survives or is replaced in an
internationally agreed process by an administration acceptable to Moscow.

In the final
year of Barack Obama’s presidency it is unlikely that there will be a further
major intensification of the air war, not least because of the difficulty in
identifying targets, but there is likely to be an increase in the use of
Special Forces. More generally there are strong indications that there will be
more emphasis on northern and sub-Saharan Africa, with the United States and
France likely to enhance their forces supporting individual states.

Libya, in
particular, remains in a parlous state with much of the country beyond the
control of either rival administration, allowing the expansion of IS elements
currently centred on the coastal town of Sirte but extending towards some of
the Saharan oil and gas fields. There may be moves by the United States and
coalition partners to develop air operations in Libya. Indeed, France
acknowledged it had begun reconnaissance overflights of Libya in November and US
aircraft attempted ‘targeted killings’ of al-Qaida and IS leaders there in June
and November.

2015 saw the
successful conclusion of an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. While
involving multinational negotiations the focus was on the United States and
Iran, and the agreement was seen as the one example of progress across the
entire region. Furthermore, December saw Iran completing a major programme of
low-enriched uranium exports to Russia as part of the agreement. In the coming
year there are indications that the improvement in US-Iran relations will
continue, but there are two important caveats. One is that November will see
the US Presidential election and the possibility that a more hard-line
administration will emerge and the other is that Israel and Saudi Arabia are
deeply suspicious of Iran.

Saudi Arabia, in
particular, is greatly concerned at the easing of Washington’s relations with
Tehran and is also worried about the survival of the Assad regime and Russia’s
involvement in that. Since March, Saudi Arabia has led a high tempo air and
ground campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen, seeing these as backed by Iran.
This is a major war involving a coalition of at least ten Arab and African
states. The Saudi execution of a leading Shi’a cleric in early January raised
further tensions with Iran, leading Riyadh and many of its allies to suspend
diplomatic relations with Iran.

The existence of
two major proxy wars in the region – in Syria and Yemen – has long been seen as
one of the greatest obstacles to resolving both conflicts and that it is
necessary to bring those proxy elements together in order to make progress.
This is especially the case in Syria where Iran and Russia support the regime
and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and a coalition of western states oppose it. The
Saudi-Iranian tensions make progress much less likely in the coming year though
it is probable that the Obama administration will work intensely to that end in
its final months in office, however poor the prospects.

Environment

Last January’s
briefing reported that the 20th meeting of the Conference of Parties to the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP20) had taken place in Lima, Peru in
December 2014 and while there was little direct progress there were indications
of a wider international recognition of the risks arising from climate change.
There was therefore cautious optimism that the next meeting (COP21) in Paris at
the end of November 2015 would see serious progress made. During the course of
2015, that sense of optimism was maintained and was aided by 2014 having been
the warmest year since accurate records began.

There was, in
particular, evidence emerging that the so-called “pause” in global warming was,
as many climate scientists thought, a temporary phenomenon caused by the
Southern Oscillation and its best known element, El Niño, damping down the
warming for perhaps five years. The phase of the oscillation now appeared to
have ended which meant that the oscillation and background warming were now in
synchrony and would be so until the end of the decade. During 2015 that
appeared to be confirmed by a further record-breaking year and a confident
prediction that 2016 will be warmer still. If this is the case then more
extreme weather events are probable and these will further encourage acceptance
that climate change really does require rapid moves towards ultra-low carbon
economies.

If COP21 is
judged in this context then on the positive side there was more general
agreement than before that carbon emissions have to be cut and that the
objective of avoiding a global temperature increase of 2.0 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial has to be lowered to 1.5 degrees Celsius. At the same time
the great majority of the pledges to reduce carbon emissions are voluntary
rather enshrined in national law and even if all were implemented on the
timescale that doesn’t even start until 2020 then that would not be enough to
keep to a 1.5 degree rise.

Thus there has
been some progress but much more needs to be done. There remains a particular
question mark over US policy after the Obama administration, which has been
unusually willing to expend political and diplomatic capital on pushing for
carbon reductions. If the issue recedes from the international political agenda
during 2016 then that will be an indicator of a continuing if underlying
refusal to recognise the dangers inherent in current fuel usage.

The World
Economy

There was
uncertainty a year ago about world economic prospects with a concern over low
oil prices, a continuing failure to bring in effective financial regulation and
a concern over the growth of political opposition to austerity, especially in
southern Europe. The uncertainty has been replaced by a more established and
worrying view that the world economy is getting close to recession, with
considerable social and political implications.

Last January’s
briefing reported a 2014 overall growth rate of 3.3% with a prediction of a
modest increase to 3.8% anticipated for 2015, though this was predicated on
continuing high rates of growth across South and East Asia, especially China
and India. In the event the growth rate slumped to 2.4%, commodity prices overall
fell by 20% and oil prices by close to 60%. While such decreases might be
expected to aid fuel-importing countries the impact was low, and the effect on
the economies of major oil producers, especially those with large populations,
was considerable. Furthermore, China simply did not meet its growth targets and
while UN sources predicted a 2.6% growth rate for 2016, an ominous sign was
that fifteen of the largest developing economies recorded a decline in
investment.

The state of the
oil market is of particular note since the price collapse has come at a time of
considerable instability among some major producers such as Libya and Iraq, the
expectation being that such uncertainty would normally encourage speculation
and higher oil prices. This has been avoided mainly because the dominant
producer, Saudi Arabia, has been deliberately over-supplying crude in an effort
to damage the Iranian and Russian economies; the market thus remains flush with
oil at the time of a price slump. The end of international sanctions on Iran
will further flood the oil market in early 2016. Cheap oil, of course, means
less incentive to invest in alternative, sustainable energy sources.

While the
Chinese growth rate is still impressive by the standards of any other major
economy, the relative decrease in growth rate has the effect of limiting
imports of a wide range of commodities and, given the sheer size of the Chinese
market, this affects the wider world economy. By early January there were even
warnings from diverse sources that the world economy is now at risk of serious
disruption, possibly at the level of 2008.

A counter
argument to critiques of the failure of the neo-liberal economic model has long
been that it may have its faults and may be a potential source of inequality
but if there is continuing economic growth these faults may be masked by
improvements across society, even among the economically marginalised. There is
growing evidence from the growth of political movements such as Syriza and
Podemos that this factor has weakened and if the world economy enters recession
then a very powerful reaction should be expected.

Conclusion

There is some
limited cause for optimism on the issue of climate change as the most dangerous
of environmental constraints, though 2016 is likely to establish how realistic
that optimism is. In relation to the world economy, the outlook is more
pessimistic than a year ago and in relation to security there appears to be
little or no sign of any move away from the control paradigm. One indicator of
a lack of foresight has been the inability of many European states to recognise
the problems of mass migration, both in terms of migrants from sub-Saharan
Africa and refugees from the wars in the Middle East. Given that migratory
pressures will be hugely greater if climate change is not prevented then that
is an indication of how much work there is to do if we are to achieve a more
sustainable and peaceful security environment.

About the Author

Paul Rogersis
Global Security Consultant to Oxford Research Group (ORG) and Professor of
Peace Studies at the University of Bradford. His Monthly Briefingsare
available from our website, where visitors can sign up to receive them via our
newsletter each month.