Albert R. Hunt: Immigration reform faces endurance test

WASHINGTON — Immigration reform is having a "Kumbaya" moment, with support from the White House, a bipartisan contingent in Congress, business and labor.

The Republicans are petrified after their dismal showing among the fastest-growing slices of the electorate, Hispanics and Asians; President Barack Obama wants to reward the loyalty of those voters. Business and labor, as well as many politicians, want to fix a dysfunctional system.

There are more than 11 million undocumented immigrants, 5 percent of the workforce. Many of these people live in fear of discovery, while jobs go unfilled in some areas.

Hold the champagne. When it comes to immigration laws, the concept is always easier than the reality. Change failed to happen six years ago, even with a push from a high-powered coalition led by President George W. Bush and Sens. John McCain and Edward Kennedy.

The dynamics are more favorable today. Still, the same obstacles persist; the powerful countervailing considerations include:

A pathway to where? There's a fairly broad consensus for ending the illegal status of the undocumented. The White House, Hispanic groups and most Senate supporters insist that any reform must lead to a pathway to citizenship.

That approach faces great resistance. Some lawmakers demand that any move toward citizenship must come second to solving the border-security problem, at a minimum. For some, this is a political cover; under the Obama administration, resources for border security have been increased sharply, including the use of drones. And deportations of undocumented immigrants are at a record high.

A border-security trigger is realistic if it includes quantifiable goals, such as the number of new Border Patrol agents, the amount of resources allocated and the new technologies utilized. It isn't reasonable if it requires meeting an amorphous standard such as "operational control" of a border that is always changing.

Hispanic groups assert that the real motive for such demands is to unreasonably stretch out any possibility of granting citizenship.

A fragile coalition: Equally contentious is the question of future flows of immigrants. One proposal would link the number of legal immigrants to economic conditions: More would be let in when times are good, fewer in tougher times. That sounds easier than it is. There will be clashes over how great a priority should be given to those with high-tech skills or to agricultural workers or to family reunification. Small businesses will rebel against any costly verification plan.

Most independent studies show that immigration is a decided economic plus, bringing in revenue and increasing productivity and innovation.

Yet the arguments of the populist right may resonate more as the debate heats up. NumbersUSA, a leading anti-immigration group, is reviving charges that immigration reform would drive down wages for middle- and low-income workers. Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state who wrote anti-immigration measures in several states and the Republican Party's platform position on the issue last summer, charges taxpayers would be hit with $2.6 trillion in added food stamp, Medicare and Medicaid and welfare costs. That estimate is refuted by reliable studies; it still cuts.

Who is the Ted Kennedy or Rahm Emanuel? The successful, if flawed, passage of Obama's health care measure probably wouldn't have been possible without the savvy hand of former White House chief of staff Emanuel. Congressional Democrats and some outside advocates see no Emanuel counterpart in the current White House; privately, some say they would like the White House to enlist a special envoy — perhaps former HUD secretary and San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros or former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle — to shepherd the legislation.

There was no more capable legislator or deal-maker than the late senator Kennedy. Egos and tensions already are surfacing among supporters of reform; Republicans don't trust the White House, and some Democrats worry that Marco Rubio, the ambitious young Republican senator from Florida, will look for a reason to peel off as he comes under pressure from his party's right wing.

There is no senator today who possesses Kennedy's skill for navigating these shoals.

It's still a slightly better bet that a big immigration bill will be enacted in this Congress. Getting there will be ugly, and the measure will seem to die more than once as it battles these cross pressures.