I
have no idea whether the polls are right. Neither do they. Consider
for a moment what they are trying to tell us: a month ago it was massive Tory
landslide and Labour oblivion.

They
are used in public discourse as if they are tools of prediction, but all their
predictions from April are now reversed. It's like predicting which team will
win the league, and updating your prediction after every match.

All
it's showing is what those of us on the ground knew all along:

1.
Theresa May is a cardboard cutout politician with no depth or gravitas,
held up by hot air spewing from billionaire owned newspapers and establishment
broadcasters.

2.
All Labour leaders get vilified. (Unless they actually get in bed
with the Murdochs). Brown and Miliband were both subject to character
assassination. Any of the bland weathercock 2015 candidates would have
been (Cooper would have been portrayed as Mrs Balls, crashed the economy.
Burnham would have been Mr U-turn, privatised the NHS, Kendall would have
been shouty little girl). Angela Eagle or Owen Smith would have been
mauled worse than Corbyn, given their dreadful media performances last summer.
We should *never* base our politics or leadership choice on appeasing
tabloids.

3.
People actually like Corbyn once they get to see him, rather than hear
second hand smears from his political opponents (of both main parties).
His honesty and authenticity is an asset. These are personal
qualities; compare with Diane Abbot: similar politics but comes across as a
question dodger.

4.
The most pernicious damage to Corbyn, which I hear every single time I go out
door knocking, whether in heartlands or marginals, in Newcastle or around the
region, is "but even his own side don't support him". The
damage wasn't done by the Tories, people expect Punch & Judy politics.
The damage was done by the dummy-spitting Mandleson crowd, Jess Philips,
and Mirror and Guardian journalists.

5.
The "hard left" "back to the '70s" policies of Corbyn
and his supporters is neither of those things. The poll shift has finally
put to rest the lie that a strong social democratic platform is unpopular.
We released one and jumped ten points in the polls.

6.
The size and strength of the Labour Party's grass roots does matter.
Our ground activity and social media is having an effect. The Party
establishment needs to nurture the members, not fear them.

7.
If there is any kind of Tory government after the election we will
certainly see a major economic slowdown in the next two years. We are
currently bumping along with the weakest of recoveries based entirely on
consumer debt and property speculation. Both are unsustainable and led to
the 2007 crash. Factor in a hard Brexit and we'll see a grinding recession
within 2 years.

A
clear Tory majority (20+) will see them ditch May with her toxic Brexit legacy
and hold out to 2022. (She needs 50+ to hold on).

A
weak Tory majority will see increasing Brexit chaos and government defeats in
Parliament, and the possibility of a vote of no confidence before 2022, with
the probability increasing in direct proportion to their reduced majority.

A
Tory minority government will certainly collapse quickly, possibly even before
the end of the Brexit process.

Ian Allinson, the only genuine candidate in the forthcoming Unite General Secretary election writes:

Voting for Unite General Secretary and the Executive Council opens on 27
March, in less than two weeks. Members have a chance to shake up our union and
make it stronger. You can help ensure we seize that chance.

The need for a stronger and more effective union could not be more clear. On
1 March the Tories brought in their repressive Trade Union Act. Theresa
May is treating migrant workers like hostages for her trade negotiations with
the EU. And from sector to sector we are facing threats to employment and
downward pressure on pay and conditions.

Thankfully, members are fighting back. For example:

We had a magnificent march for our NHS on 4th March (video of my interview there).

BA Mixed Fleet cabin crew continue their struggle
against poverty pay and have taken nearly thirty days of strike action.
Donations to their strike fund, payable to Unite the Union (write
"Mixed Fleet Hardship Fund" on the back) can be sent to Unite
the Union, 33-37 Moreland Street, London, EC1V 8BB.

Members at Fujitsu where I work started national strike
action on 28 February and our next strikes are on 17, 24 and 27 March.
Mine is one of the 1800 UK jobs Fujitsu hopes to cut. Here's more information including where you can find pickets
and how to support us.

This coming Saturday I'll be on the TUC-backed March Against Racism in
London. I hope you will be there, or at the marches in Glasgow and
Cardiff. I've posted
recently about the importance of the demo, why migrants' rights are
workers' rights, and my disappointment that neither of the two establishment
candidates in this election are willing to join me in speaking up for freedom
of movement and equal treatment when members and their families are under
attack.

As voting approaches we are seeing mischief ramping up. Coyne's campaign
seems focussed on giving our union a bad name in the press, making it harder
for all of us to build the union in our workplaces and communities. I've now
had to complain that McCluskey's campaign has personally emailed members of
branches which nominated me, falsely claiming that their branch nominated him.
It would be useful to understand the scale of this abuse, so if you have
examples, please share them with me.

I'm keeping my campaign focussed on the policies and measures needed to
strengthen our union so that we can match up to the onslaught members face to
our jobs, pay, services and rights. You can read my pledges below.

I've said from the outset that whatever the result of the election, my
campaign is aiming to strengthen our union, raising important arguments and
building networks of those who want a stronger and more effective union. As
well as securing 97 valid nominations (many doubted we could reach 50!) we
are already achieving these goals to some extent. The more people who get
involved the more we can achieve. If you support the campaign, please register
your details so I can get you involved. Please like, follow, share and
retweet on Facebook and Twitter.
On the Facebook page you will also find details of some local events supporters
are setting up.

Turnout in union postal elections is usually low. Any campaigning helps
engage members and increases the chances of them bothering to vote. If you want
leaflets to distribute, please get in touch. If you are
able to, please donate
to the campaign too - I don't have the resources of senior union officers with
rich and powerful backers Unlike some with dodgy backers, my campaign finances
are transparent - all donations are receipted and any member can inspect the
records.

Ian's
pledges

Communication,
participation and a bottom-up union

Fortnightly email bulletins direct to all activists,
not filtered through officers and committees.

Support members being able to elect the officers who
represent us. Not only would this increase accountability, it would reduce
the power of patronage and the climate of fear in the union.

Tackle the non-functioning branches that deny members a
voice and access to resources.

Oppose the exclusion of community and retired members from participation in
Unite structures.

I'd keep my current wage, not the inflated General
Secretary salary, to avoid giving the hostile media ammunition against us.

A stronger union, fit for the future

Involve members, officers and staff in a major review of
Unite's structures to make them fit for purpose in the 21st century.
Shift resources and power away from regions to better support the vast
majority of Unite workplaces that are in employers spanning multiple
regions. Improve support for company and sub-sector combine committees.

Encourage a spirit of experimentation in organising.
Documents and publicise case studies of lessons from members’ organising
and campaigning efforts and successes. We spend too much effort trying to
reinvent the wheel.

A flexible facility for levies for strike funds etc,
not restricted to where all members are in workplace branches.

Access to a Dispute Unit for all disputes from an early
stage. All members in dispute should feel like they have a million members
behind them, not be left to fend for themselves.

Expand the lay companion scheme to involve more members
(including those not in paid work) and free up officer time from casework.

Overhaul education, which is essential for organising
and changing the union's culture, in the light of funding cuts, and ensure
fair treatment for our tutors.

Build on our organising success by increasing lay
member involvement.

Equality and young members' issues in our industrial agenda, not an
optional extra

Integrate our equality and young members work better
into our industrial agenda.

Tackle bullying and sexual harassment, including within our own union (also see report). Consultation over urgent implementation of
the following measures: A review of all the union’s education and training
for members and staff to raise the understanding of equality and diversity
of everyone actively involved with the union; A review of the union’s
women’s structures to ensure they provide a representative voice for Unite
women, champion issues of particular concern to women, and provide a route
to participation in Unite for members who face additional barriers due to
sexism; Ending the requirement for Regional Women’s and Equalities Officer
roles to be done as a part-job alongside an industrial allocation, so that
equality issues have more focus and resource; Extending the
recommendations of the Women Officers in Unite report to all women
employed by union; A review of Unites grievance and complaints procedures
to remove any bias against women who make complaints related to
discrimination, bullying or harassment; Make equality and diversity a
standing agenda item for all Unite’s constitutional committees.

Campaign now: backing Corbyn shouldn't mean waiting for him

Extend Unite's support for Jeremy
Corbyn, not only through Unite's role inside the Labour Party, but by
grass roots campaigning and action which can win people over. Stop
undermining him on key policies and calling his leadership into question.

Fight for workers' rights, don't tail our employers' agendas

Organise regional conferences bringing together
campaigns for civil liberties and against state repression, so that our opposition
to anti-union legislation stops being isolated and ineffective.

Challenge the culture of partnership - we are not
"all in it together". Post-Brexit Unite should be prioritising
defence of workers' rights, not tailing employers' demands for free trade
or protectionism.

Support a million
climate jobs, not costly and destructive vanity projects like Trident,
HS2, Heathrow expansion and Hinkley Point. Proactively fight for diversification to protect members whose jobs
will be affected by changes such as climate change, changes in defence
policy and automation. Call a conference of defence workers, the defence
teams from Labour and the SNP, and experts on diversification.

Investigate the role of union officials in blacklisting
members. Officially extend every assistance to the Blacklist Support Group
in rooting out collusion and backdoor deals with the employers.

The union strung out Karen Mill's inspection request as long as it could, with expensive lawyers, multiple Certification Officer hearings and finally an appeal against the Certification Officer's decision.

“Why do you want to just walk away and pass the title deeds
of this great party over to someone like Jeremy Corbyn? I don’t want to, I
resent it, and I work every single day in some small way to bring forward the
end of his tenure in office."

“Something, however small it may be – an email, a phone call or a meeting I convene – every day I try to do something"

"WE HAVE TO ALERT PARTY MEMBERS and supporters that the soft coup is
underway. It’s planned, co-ordinated and fully resourced. It is being
perpetrated by an alliance between elements in the Labour Party and the
Murdoch media empire, both intent on destroying Jeremy Corbyn and all
that he stands for.

The coup is not being waged up front in public
but strictly behind the scenes. Having learned the lesson of the last
coup attempt - that a direct attack on Jeremy and his policies will
provoke a backlash from many party members - the coup perpetrators are
this time round pursuing a covert strategy.

The aim of these
covert coup plotters is to undermine the support Jeremy has secured
among Labour Party members, and also importantly to undermine support
from Labour voters. Undermining support for Jeremy from Labour voters is
important to the plotters because their objective is to ensure Jeremy
trails in the polls and can’t win elections. In this way they can
destroy morale among party members and their confidence in him.

The
tactics include daily and constant behind-the-scenes non-attributable
briefings against Jeremy and his Shadow Cabinet every time he or his
shadow ministers make a statement, intervene in Parliament or launch a
policy. The plotters use every opportunity to chip away at Jeremy’s
standing to seek to demean him and undermine support for him in the
Labour Party and among Labour supporters. This constant barrage of
negative briefings also crowds out any positive initiatives or narrative
from Jeremy and his team. It also feeds and confirms in the public’s
mind that the Labour Party is split.The plotters are effective in
distorting the media coverage because they have extensive contacts and
allies in the media, many inherited from Mandelson’s days. The
professional planning of interventions in which attacks to undermine
Jeremy are framed evidences an exceptionally well resourced ‘dark arts’
operation of the old spin school. The coup plotters are willing to
sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a
socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they
regain control of the Party than it is to win elections.

The irony
is that they are willing to go so far in denigrating Jeremy that they
endanger their own parliamentary seats and endanger the very existence
of the party they want to use to get into power. We saw the methods they
use with the leaking of the Party’s internal polling. This was a
carefully planned and executed operation. Let’s use it as a case
example.

Both quantitative and qualitative polling is undertaken
by the Party regularly under the direction of Jon Trickett, the Party’s
National Campaign Co-ordinator. Jon arranged for one focus group to be
carried out by the Party’s polling agency in Manchester to assess how
our frontbench members appearing on television programmes at the time
were being perceived in the north west. This polling took place back in
November and its results were only accessible to a small number of party
officials, Jon Trickett and the polling agency. To this day I have
still not seen the results. The polling was leaked by someone to James
Lyons, a Times journalist who has regularly received leaks from within
the Labour Party - usually used to attack Jeremy and his team.

The
Murdoch media had already run earlier in the week fake news stories in
The Times and Sun alleging that Jeremy was planning to stand down as
leader of the Party. No matter how many times it was explained that this
story was completely untrue and absolute fiction, the The Times and Sun
continued to run it - and the BBC and other broadcast media took it up
and reported it extensively. The media then invented the story that the
polling on the perception of Shadow Cabinet members in the north west
was the Party testing the perceptions of potential successors to Jeremy.

This
was a classic negative story framing and transmission exercise. It is
just one example of what we confront on a weekly and at times almost
daily basis. It is vitally important that our supporters understand and
appreciate what we are facing. What we are experiencing is completely
predictable and expected. Spreading that understanding of what we are up
against enables us all to organise how we can fight back and overcome
the soft coup strategy.

We all have an important role to play in
explaining what we are facing and how, by standing together, we can
defeat the plotters again. This is the testing time for the Corbyn
transformation. The challenges are great and the times are tough - but
we all know that this is the socialist opportunity of a lifetime.