Andrej Nestrasil

I am not sure everyone saw it that way, but I saw Nestrasil non-qualifying as nearly a sure thing. At a depth and player level, there could be a case for keeping Nestrasil but a combination of two significant risks easily made him a no-go. First, at a player level, he will actually represent good AHL/NHL depth for another team if signed to a two-way contract which I think will be the case. The risk ata contract level was that Nestrasil had arbitration rights and would likely have filed for arbitration and pushed for a one-way deal in the process. After spending the vast majority of the 2016-17 season in the AHL, he would have been unlikely to win a one-way deal, but the arbitration process turns out head-scratchers fairly regularly.

But bigger than the contractual risk was his extracurricular activities during the 2016-17 season. Frustrated a bit with his lot in hockey life with the Hurricanes, Nestrasil grumbled harshly to a Czech newspaper during the season. I have not idea if things were taken out of context a bit, if he and the team have talked about it since or any other details. But what I do know are two things. The risk of him being an AHL veteran with a less than happy demeanor increased significantly. This increase coincides with a significant influx of fresh, new, important prospects into Charlotte.

Whatever upside Nestrasil might have as a player does not offset the risk of having a bad effect on a locker room full of young Hurricanes prospects who are still very much in learning mode.

Daniel Altshuller

With Callum Booth moving up to the AHL level this year, the Hurricanes have who I would consider to be their two highest ranked goalie prospects in Alex Nedeljkovic and Daniel Altshuller slotted to play at the AHL level. Rough math says that the Hurricanes have three slots for minor-league goalies with two slots at the AHL level and also the ability to get a goalie starts at the ECHL level like Nedeljkovic did last season.

The decision for Francis was whether he wanted to spend the third and final slot on Altshuller. In terms of considering only developing as many prospects as possible, it would have made sense to keep Altshuller. But the other element in play is having someone who is safe, sound and stable and ideally a mentor on board in Charlotte. That helps in multiple key regards. First, it creates a more stable playing environment for all of the non-goalie prospects on the team. Second, it bossts the chance to push for the playoffs.

In 2016-17, Michael Leighton served this role, and when he was injured, the Hurricanes went out and added veteran AHL goalie Tom McCollum who was one of the two or three most significant contributors to the Checkers’ playoff push.

Being direct, Nedeljkovic very much had a learning year in his first professional season in the AHL. By no means would I consider him a safe bet to be a solid #1 at the AHL level. He will get his starts. The hope is that he progresses. But the schedule is uncertain. Booth enters the mix after a strong 2016-17 season in juniors but will be brand new to professional hockey just like Nedeljkovic was last season.

So with Altshuller also being more of an unproven prospect too, going with that set of three has the potential to be really dicey.

In addition, with Francis annually buying a goalie lottery ticket every draft (two in 2016 even), the Hurricanes goalie prospect ranks now numbers five even without Altshuller. For whatever reason, I do not get the impression that Altshuller really did enough to get Francis’ and his team’s attention.

So in the end, parting ways with Altshuller is a small loss for the organizational depth chart at the position, and probably more significantly, it was a necessity to open up a slot for a veteran AHL netminder to boost the stability at the position in Charlotte for the 2017-18 season.

Could this be the first domino?

My expectation continues to be that the Hurricanes will buy out Eddie Lack this week if unable to include him as part of another deal that. And in Altshuller’s place, I expect the Hurricanes to sign a veteran AHL netminder.

My reasoning is that Francis can save about $1 million by parting ways with Lack (only pay two-thirds of remaining contract for buy out), and that one is better spent at the NHL level rather than on keeping a #3 goalie.

That said, the departure of Altshuller would in fact be the first domino toward making room to keep Eddie Lack and play him at the NHL level. It is just my guess based on what I have seen from Lack at the NHL level, but I think if he went to Charlotte in good spirits and with the right attitude that he could be a great addition to that locker room.

So though I still think the odds are higher for my original (before Darling was traded for even) assertion on Lack, not qualifying Altshuller does slightly increase the probability that Francis is willing to keep him and his contract for the 2017-18 season.

What say you Hurricanes fans?

Are you surprised by either Andrej Nestrasil or Daniel Altshuller’s non-qualification?

Do you think there is a chance that Altshuller’s slot is being cleared for Eddie Lack?

Does anyone else hope that Trevor Carrick gets traded simply because he has paid his dues and is deserving of an NHL chance somewhere?

Go Canes!

6 Comments

raleightj
on June 26, 2017 at 8:26 pm

1. Not at all surprised about Nesty’s NQ. I think it was understood that he was not going to come back anyway. And you mention the two risk factors: (1) the whimsy of arbitration; (2) the likelihood of a bad attitude.

As for Alt, by the math I thought it was unlikely he would receive a qualifying offer. Last season showed that going with AHL rookies and youngsters is a recipe for underperformance on the team – you can’t risk that either Booth or Ned are going to be solid in net. There is, as you suggest, value in an experienced goalie in the AHL net. It pays dividends for the entire team.

2. I know we have disagreed on this, Matt, but I think there is a strong and valid argument for keeping Lack and moving him to Charlotte – that it is worth the price. Leightons and McCollums are few and far between. Whether that is the intent is just a guess – but there will be an experienced goalie in net in Charlotte, one way or the other.

And I really think Eddie will go down with the right attitude. He knows his reputation from his Vancouver has taken a big hit and he knows (and we saw) that he can play well at the NHL level and be dominant at the AHL level (his two games with Charlotte). I think he would welcome the opportunity to spend significant time on ice and show not just the Canes but the rest of the league that he is a much better goalie than he was the past two seasons. He will be great in the locker room and the community. Otherwise he would end up sitting on the bench for the most part with almost any other NHL team and not be in a position to show what he can do.

Of course I really don’t know what is in his mind, but I think this is very plausible.

3. Trevor got no time with the Canes this year, although he played two games the previous year. His game really fell off in Charlotte. I am not a believer that you deserve a chance just because you have “paid your dues”. I am reminded of the Republican primaries that ended up with first Dole and then McCain as the candidate, because it was now “their turn”. It doesn’t work in politics and it doesn’t work in sports. His NHL play in 2016 was less than impressive and, again, his game in Charlotte really fell off. He has to prove that he belongs at the NHL level for either the Canes or any other team to give him a shot at this level. Barring injury, I don’t really think he will get a chance to play on NHL ice with the Canes, given Slavin-Hanifin-Fleury-Bean, but a solid season in the AHL will make him a valuable trade piece, perhaps to add into a package for that elusive “difference maker” of a forward. 🙂 So I am not “hoping”, but I can see a path for it. And it is up to Trevor to walk that path.

1) I am not surprised by Nestrasil or Altshuller’s non-qualification. It was what I expected.

2) I also disagree Matt. I see no point in burning a buyout (you only get 3 and we already used 2) and it does not save much money. I think Lack could give that mentoring help at the AHL level plus be a good call-up in case of injuries. If someone picks him up on waivers then the salary goes away. If not, you have your mentor. He could still be better then Cam.

3)I would prefer not to see Trevor Carrick traded. Let him try to work it out this year. He could still be very good.

I guess the way I think of the Eddie Lack situation is this…If we did not have Lack already, would it make sense to go out and sign an NHL goalie for $1M to play in Charlotte? Or would it be better to sign the best money can buy for an experienced AHL/NHL goalie (like Leighton last year)?

That’s basically the decision. The $ get spread differently, but there is a $1M cost to keeping Lack versus buying him out.

I definitely don’t understand all the technicalities of a buyout. I agree that the $s don’t make a lot of sense if Lack is not going to be part of the Canes’ future. But to icecobra’s point, is there a time frame for the limitation on buy outs? Would it hamstring the organization if an unusual situation occurs next year or the year after?
Also, I see tj’s point because goalies get injured often. Having Lack provides some insurance for the team and, if he plays well in Charlotte, a valuable bargaining chip if another team’s top net minder sustains a serious injury. So not really wasted money.