Why $50 is more likely to be a ceiling than a floor for the oil price

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“Our view is the oil price is in a trading range. $50 – 55 is more likely to be the ceiling for now than the floor, particularly as part of Trump’s policies is likely to be making the U.S. more self-sufficient from an oil perspective,” he posited. For WTI, the level represented its biggest one-day fall since February 2016 and the lowest closing price since early December. “We’re likely to see an increase in supply of oil at a time where supply and demand are roughly a little bit more balanced,” Boscher added. “The export numbers are at the same level as last December which demonstrates that the oil production cut is having little effect on market levels,” he added.