PC Shipments to Fall by 6% in 2014 and Decline Through 2018 – Analysts.

It is not a secret that demand for personal computers is rather low these days. This can be explained by protracted economic downturn, the rise of media tablets and smartphones, prolonged PC lifecycles by both consumers and businesses and many other reasons. What we do know now is that based on predictions from IDC.

Worldwide PC shipments fell by -9.8% in 2013, slightly better than a projected decline of -10.1%, but still the most severe contraction on record, according IDC. Fourth quarter results were slightly better than expected, but the outlook for emerging markets has deteriorated as competition from other devices and economic pressures mount. In mature regions, the fourth quarter was also slightly ahead of expectations, although the improvement seems driven by short-term factors like a slight rise in Windows XP replacements and is not expected to last long. Overall growth projections for 2014 were lowered by just over 2%, and subsequent years were lowered by less than 1%. However, the changes are enough to keep long-term growth just below zero, and push volumes below 300 million throughout the forecast rather than staying slightly above this level.

Emerging regions were on forecast for the fourth quarter (finishing a dismal year with volume declining by -11.3%), but concerns about the impact of slower economic growth, the culmination of some large projects, and conservative expectations for factors like touch capability, migration off of Windows XP, as well as continued pressure from tablets and smartphones has further depressed expectations going forward.

"Emerging markets used to be a core driver of the PC market, as rising penetration among large populations boosted overall growth. At the moment, however, we're seeing emerging regions more affected by a weak economic environment as well as significant shifts in technology buying priorities. We do expect these regions to recover in the medium term and perform better than mature regions, but growth is expected to stabilize near zero percent, rather than driving increasing volumes as we saw in the past," said Loren Loverde, vice president of worldwide PC trackers.

2014 will remain a challenging year for PC vendors in Asia as a cautious economic outlook means consumers will prioritize device purchases. At the same time, tectonic changes in politics will affect commercial spending in some of the major countries, like India, Indonesia, and Thailand, which are due to hold elections this year.

“The region is also seeing a void in public sector spending this year after huge education deals seen in India and Malaysia last year that are not expected to materialize in 2014,” said Andi Handoko, research manager for client devices at IDC Asia/Pacific.

Discussion

Rewrite the misleading headline, pc OEM systems to see a decline! Premade overpriced branded systems well of course they are going down, An 8 year old kid can build a pc these days it's mainly plug and play. Better off building a system with the exact parts you want, And you can buy the individual parts at your own leisure when the price is right on each part!
The other reason is since pc's hit dual/quad core a few years back there really hasn't been any need for casual users or office people to upgrade as last years pc or even earlier pc's are more than capable to do the task!
It's not challenging for the pc at all, It's growth is in other areas, Gaming or bitcoin mining for instance. Sales of high end pc parts are through the roof and in some cases sold out! Also next gen consoles are now pretty much a pc instead of dedicated console parts, So no the pc is far from dead! Getting sick of hearing it year after year for over a decade now!

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Self-built pcs are a tiny part of the pc market, (for many reasons: requires technical competence, cannot build laptops, unreliable on average, take time to build, no less expensive). Whether you include these in the figures makes little difference to growth rates.

Next gen consoles are not PCs since they lack versatility to run most classes of desktop applications. A 486 processor is neither sufficient nor necessary for a PC.

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That's the point though, The market has changed that's why sales are declining! The pc isn't just a box that's sit's in your office/bedroom corner anymore, There was a convergence many years ago in pc land,It has become a multitude of things, For some it's still a gaming box for others it has become a HTPC in lounge room etc etc there are many different applications for the personal computer. Next gen consoles are indeed pc's, You are referring to the software side of things which is another issue, The hardware though is now just pc parts not dedicated console chips, Both the PS4 and Xbox one is using custom x86 architecture from pc land,Then on the gpu side it is once again pc architecture using custom AMD radeon chip.

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Self-built pcs are a tiny part of the pc market, (for many reasons: requires technical competence, cannot build laptops, unreliable on average, take time to build, no less expensive). Whether you include these in the figures makes little difference to growth rates.

Next gen consoles are not PCs since they lack versatility to run most classes of desktop applicatio . A 486 processor is neither sufficient nor necessary for a PC.

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2.

The question is what is a PC. Is a multifunction phone not a Personal Computing device? or an iPad? or any of the tablets not personal computing devices?. A personal computing device is a PC, a desktop PC is only one small sector of the personal computing devices just as a Dual chip Workstation is a PC so are all other devices be it for Gaming Accounting Emailing Messaging or the likes a smart phone. The head line should have been that the x86 Windows computers are in decline as Apple can't keep up the demand for their devices.

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4.

doesn't surprise me modern day pc's can do more then enough to suit the avg consumer needs for 5 years or more now. there are people I know still using core 2 duo's and athlon X2's and are perfectly content with them and don't plan on upgrading any time soon.

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My old core 2 duo laptop is still used, though not as often these days, the performance is more than adequate for what I use it for

Why these so called analysts don't categorize tablets as a computer is silly IMHO because even though they are underpowered compared to most desktops, they still perform what most users want these days, email/web browsing/content delivery