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Afghanistan: Taliban is much stronger than before the American intervention

7 August 2018

INTERVIEW – The bloody attacks punctuate the daily lives of Afghans. Karim Pakzad, an Iris researcher and country specialist, believes that the Taliban have radicalized their methods because of the competition imposed by Daech.

THE FIGARO. – For a long time, the Taliban used to stop fighting during the winter and launch a traditional “spring offensive” between March and April. Will this be the case again this year?

Karim PAKZAD. – In some parts of Afghanistan, winter is harsh. It snows heavily. When Taliban influence was limited to these areas, it was impossible for them to brave the elements. Their military action had to wait for the good days. This spring offensive, as it was practised, is no longer taking place: the Taliban have considerably strengthened. They now control 40% of Afghan territory, act in several sometimes independent entities and recruit beyond the Pashtun ethnic group alone, which traditionally composed their troops. They are able to launch offensives at any time of the year.

The Taliban are much more powerful today than they were 17 years ago at the beginning of the American intervention. At the time, they took refuge in their bases after being driven out of Kabul. It took one or two years for them to set up their guerrillas. And again, the Westerners explained at the same time that Kabul was the safest city in the world. Today, because of the attacks, the inhabitants of the capital do not know if they will return home alive each time they leave.

In addition to the increase in attacks during the year, Taliban methods have changed. A few years ago, they targeted foreign armed forces or Afghan government positions. Today, their attacks are killing hundreds of civilians. Is it Daech’s influence?

Daech’s establishment is recent in Afghanistan. It dates from December 2014, and their action really began in 2015. There is competition between the two groups. There was very violent fighting between them. When Daech cut off Taliban heads, they started doing the same thing and lining them up at the roadside. Rivalry has radicalized the Taliban, who today no longer care about civilian casualties and sometimes find it difficult to distinguish who ordered this or that attack.

However, there is still an important difference between the two. If the Taliban are religious extremists, their struggle has a nationalist dimension: they see it as a struggle against a foreign invasion. On the other hand, Daech’s strategy is internationalist. The group only wants to establish itself in the country as a rear base in order to attack other regions of the world. Its aim is to provoke an interreligious and interethnic civil war. So he targets mosques and places of Shia prayer..