TUF 18 Finale: Main Card Predictions

Jessamyn Duke (2-0) vs. Peggy Morgan (2-0)

It should be interesting to see how Duke deals with Morgan’s size. If she’s able to work her takedowns successfully and level the playing field, Duke should have no problem finding an avenue to victory. However, Morgan’s reach and power could also keep Duke at bay. I expect the opening round to be closely contested with Duke eventually wearing Morgan down some, then increasing the intensity of her attack in the second and third rounds to find an opening for a BJJ-based attack. / PREDICTION: Jessamyn Duke def. Peggy Morgan via Submission

Roxanne Modafferi (15-10) vs. Raquel Pennington (3-3)

It would have been understandable if Modafferi had walked away from MMA after her last fight (a 2012 loss). The stumble was her fifth in a row and seemed to indicate the fan-favorite’s time in the sport was at an end. However, Modafferi decided to give her dream one more shot and tried out for TUF 18. She made the cast, and though she lost in a quarterfinal clash she still ended up with a spot on the Finale. She’s also spent the last few months training in Las Vegas instead of splitting time between a job and working out in Japan. Her newfound approach should pay dividends in the Octagon, though Pennington is a tough draw when her head is screwed on straight and she’s got heavy hands. One or two stiff strikes and Modafferi’s evening could be at an end. Still, I see the bright lights getting to “Rocky”, and the more seasoned Modafferi should be able to take advantage with takedown attempts and top control. / PREDICTION: Roxanne Modafferi def. Raquel Pennington via Split Decision

Chris Holdsworth (4-0) vs. Davey Grant (8-1)

This bout would be easier to break down if Grant had actually been forced to fight in the semifinal round, but unfortunately his opponent failed to make weight and the UFC didn’t have a backup plan in place. Both men excel on the ground and should cancel each other out in that regard. As such, Holdsworth’s striking was fairly impressive and he comes from an excellent camp (Team Alpha Male). Expect him to be fully prepared for the task at hand and look sharp en route to victory by picking his spots while standing, scoring plenty of hard-fought takedowns, and raining down punches from top position. / PREDICTION: Chris Holdsworth def. Davey Grant via Unanimous Decision

Julianna Pena (4-2) vs. Jessica Rakoczy (1-3)

Rakoczy probably has the best boxing on the UFC’s roster when it comes to female fighters. Her footwork, combinations, and openness to constantly pawing at an opponent’s face with her jab are all excellent aspects of her attack, and she certainly showed them off during her stint on the show. While Pena is explosive, her skills are still raw and she tends to react to things in the ring rather than use any real strategy. If she listens to her corner and focuses mainly on clinch-work and takedowns, Pena should have no problem winning the Ultimate Fighter 18 trophy via submission or decision. However, if she throws caution to the wind and decides to test her striking, expect Rakoczy to pick her apart with ease. I’m leaning towards the first situation playing out since Rakoczy’s primary source of dealing damage is obvious but it’s hard to know what to expect from the occasionally wild “The Venezuelan Vixen”. / PREDICTION: Julianna Pena def. Jessica Rakoczy via Submission

Gray Maynard (11-2-1) vs. Nate Diaz (16-9)

Unless it’s all been one great act, Diaz doesn’t seem to be very motivated when it comes to mixing it up in the Octagon. He made multiple comments leading up to tonight’s card indicating such, stating he doesn’t want to fight at 155 pounds anymore unless he gets a hike up in pay and even acting as though he might withdraw from the bout to attend his high school reunion. His attitude isn’t surprising either considering his primary influence in the sport – brother Nick Diaz – has retired on the spot twice after finding fault with the scoring of his last two scraps. Look for Diaz to phone his performance in, giving Maynard ample opportunity to secure takedown attempts and blanket the controversial Californian en route to a less-than aesthetically pleasing decision victory. For those fans hoping to see something more exciting, sorry, but he definitely won’t be looking to stand with Diaz after getting knocked out by T.J. Grant in his previous pairing. / PREDICTION: Gray Maynard def. Nate Diaz via Unanimous Decision

Fans of female fighting are in for a treat tonight thanks to a trio of tilts on tap for the main card of the Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale. In addition to Julianna Pena-Jessica Rackoczy battling it out for the right to be named the fairer sex’s first TUF champion, Roxanne Modafferi and Jessamyn Duke are scheduled for showdowns with peers from this past season’s cast. Additionally, Chris Holdsworth and Davey Grant are set to lock horns for the male bracket’s trophy, while Ultimate Fighter alums Gray Maynard and Nate Diaz are scheduled to headline the spectacle. Here’s a look at how those fights may unfold… (Photos by USA Today Sports Images)