Pump prices jumped over the past six weeks, and some experts predict they will continue climbing. Former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister predicts that increased worldwide demand and lack of production could push gas prices in the United States to $5 per gallon by 2012.

"We continue to demand more," Hofmeister said today, repeating comments he made that were first aired by "Platts Energy Week." "The world continues to demand more, and the U.S. has no plan to address it. That could drive us to the kind of numbers that get to $5 a gallon in this country."

While several energy economists and forecasters disagree with that prediction, it foreshadows the kind of rhetoric the new Congress will face, several people said. Oil companies and their trade group are rolling out a campaign to push for more production, said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen's Energy Program.

"They're going to say we need an energy plan that focuses on fully developing U.S. energy," Slocum said. "That means opening up more areas to offshore drilling and ensuring that we preserve the existing array of tax breaks and subsidies."

The national average price for gasoline hit $3.12 per gallon yesterday, up 21 cents from the post-Thanksgiving price on Nov. 29.

Crude oil yesterday closed at $91.53 per barrel, up from $80.79 on Nov. 23.

Gas prices have long been a hot political issue. During the summer of 2008 when crude oil rose to a record $147 per barrel, GOP candidates rallied supporters with their "drill, baby, drill" slogan. Republicans gained traction with the energy issue until the economic crisis became a top concern.

After the passage in 2009 of the House climate bill H.R. 2454, groups opposing the legislation strategized that linking the threat of higher gasoline prices to the measure would undermine support (E&ENews PM, Aug. 20, 2009).

As new lawmakers take office, energy lobbying strategies are emerging. American Petroleum Institute, the trade group for the oil and natural gas industry, today unveiled a report on the "State of American Energy" (see related story).

The group is recommending that Congress support "policies that promote all energy sources, pursue policies that encourage investment in new energy projects and provide market-based solutions to meet energy demand." API wants lawmakers to oppose eliminating any of the tax benefits that oil and gas companies now receive.

"What we need today -- and tomorrow -- are policy choices that increase, not decrease, energy production," API said in its report. "Government policies should harmonize our energy and environmental goals, encouraging responsible development that creates jobs and helps drive our economy."

And the Obama administration signaled yesterday that it is thinking about how to respond to higher gas prices.

"A lot of conditions affect oil prices. But over the long term, it's safe to say that oil prices will go higher," Energy Secretary Steven Chu told CNN. Increased demand from India and China and exploration in more difficult environments, Chu said, "conspire to say that oil prices in the mid- and long-term future will be higher.

"The United States should prepare for that and take the steps necessary to use the oil we need as efficiently as possible," Chu added, "and also to begin to transition away from oil. For example, electrification of vehicles and things like that."

Planning on energy

With climate legislation almost certainly off the table in the upcoming Congress, gas prices could become the lever that forces action on energy, one energy lobbyist said.

"It is actually something that I think is a sleeping issue," said the lobbyist, who asked not to be identified so that he could speak freely. "The role of oil in people's lives and the rising cost of gasoline may be brought back to people by midyear."

The lobbyist said he has been advising clients that every five to seven years there is an "energy surprise" and that gas and crude oil prices could be the next one.

"People will be smart to plan for what an energy agenda might look like if oil prices do spike or continue their upward trajectory," the lobbyist said.

If gas prices keep increasing, Republicans probably will make a push on increased fossil fuel production, said Ken Green, resident scholar with the American Enterprise Institute think tank.

"We're likely to see a replay of the McCain-Palin 'drill, baby, drill,' drill here, drill now," Green said. "It will probably be a cause celebre for the tea party."