Saturday, January 26, 2013

This will be a very busy week for economic data. The key reports are the Q4 advance GDP report to be released on Wednesday, and the January employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include Case-Shiller house prices for November on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Friday, and auto sales on Friday.

There is an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with an announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 2:15 PM ET. No significant changes are expected.

----- Monday, Jan 28th -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.6% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for January. This is the last of the regional surveys for January. The consensus is a decrease to 4.0 from 6.8 in December (above zero is expansion).

----- Tuesday, Jan 29th -----

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through October 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 5.8% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for November. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 5.3% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.4% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January. The consensus is for the index to be unchanged at 65.1.

10:00 AM: Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS) and this survey probably shouldn't be used to estimate the excess vacant housing supply.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 172,000 payroll jobs added in January. Even with the new methodology, the report still isn't that useful in predicting the BLS report.

8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (advance release). This is the advance release from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.0% annualized in Q4.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The Red column (and dashed line) is the consensus forecast for Q4 GDP.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 350 thousand from 330 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in personal income in December, and for 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a decrease to 50.5, down from 51.6 in December.

----- Friday, Feb 1st -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 155,000 non-farm payroll jobs in January; there were also 155,000 jobs added in December.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.7% in January.

Note: As usual, the January report will include revisions. From the BLS: "the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey will introduce revisions to nonfarm payroll employment, hours, and earnings data to reflect the annual benchmark adjustment for March 2012 and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2011 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2008 are subject to revision."

For the Household survey, from the BLS: "Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2013, scheduled for February 1, 2013, new population controls will be used in the monthly household survey estimation process."

The second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through December.

The economy has added 5.8 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 including preliminary benchmark revision (5.2 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 3.1 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007 (including benchmark revision).

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index. The consensus is for an increase to 55.5, up from 54.0.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 71.5, up from 71.3.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for January.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in December at 50.7% (dashed line). The employment index was at 48.4% in December, and the new orders index was at 50.3%. The consensus is for PMI to be unchanged at 50.7%. (above 50 is expansion).

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be at 15.3 million SAAR in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) unchanged from the December rate.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,045,587 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million light vehicles. The projected sales will be ... a 14.5 percent increase from January 2012.