San Diego Padres vs N.Y. MetsThe Mets are allowed no excuses tonight. Following an 8-6 defeat last night, they can’t afford two losses in a row to the lowly Padres while expecting to stay a playoff contender. By virtue of Friday’s loss, the Mets have gone a dismal 1-6 over its last seven games. However, since 2015, the Mets are 16-3 following losing 5 or 6 of their previous seven outings and own a sizable +2.4 run per game differential during those nineteen games. Furthermore, Jacob DeGrom will be on the mound this evening, and he’s been lights out in his prior three starts, compiling a microscopic 0.44 ERA in those outings.

The good news for the Padres is they came out on top last night. The bad news, San Diego has lost 9 games in a row following a win. Current MLB betting odds have San Diego as a +204 money line underdog. Since 2014, San Diego is a woeful 6-33 as a road money line underdog of +175 to +250, and possessed an awful -2.6 run per game differential through the course of those 39 contests.

L.A. Angels vs Cleveland IndiansI’m sure a lot of MLB bettors did a double take when they saw this line. After all, the AL Central Division leading Indians are a short -120 money line favorite, and they’re facing an Angels team which has lost 8 games in a row. Nevertheless, before you tap into your retirement fund in order to make a wager on what appears as an absolute lock, slam on your brakes. When it looks too good to be true in sports betting, a majority of times that’s indeed the case.

Matt Shoemaker will be the Angels starting pitcher tonight, and that’s a noteworthy item. Shoemaker has made three career starts against Cleveland, all have taken place since 2014, and he compiled a microscopic 0.82 ERA in those outings. One of those starts came this year and it was a dominant one. Shoemaker tossed 8.0 innings of scoreless baseball, allowing only 3 hits, and struck out 11 while walking just 1. As a matter of fact, Shoemaker is averaging an impressive 5.9 strikeouts per outing in eleven starts this year.

Mike Clevinger will make his fifth start of the season for Cleveland on Saturday. He hasn’t fared very well in the first four, proven by his large 7.72 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over the course of that time.

Any road team (Angels) with a starting pitcher (Shoemaker) averaging 5.0 or more strikeout per start, and is facing an American League starting pitcher (Clevinger) with an ERA of 6.70 or worse on the year, resulted in those road teams going 38-12 (76%) since 2012. This exact betting angle has also gone an extremely profitable 9-2 in 2016. I’m going to take a calculated risk on the money line road underdog for one of my Saturday MLB picks.