Abstract

China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) are becoming major players in the global economy due to their trade relations with the rest of the world and their growing assertiveness on the international stage. In each CIBS country, the opening of trade has been followed by the liberalization of the capital account. However, capital account liberalization (CAL) has not been completed. What will happen if these countries promote futher CAL on the outflow side? In China, and in CIBS more broadly, it will not be Central Bank officials but private agents who will decide where, how, and for how long to invest abroad. Who will gain and who will lose from this shift from official to private capital flows, and from capital invested domestically to capital invested abroad? Can we predict the future destination of private capital flows from these countries? Which countries will be able to attract such flows, by how much, and in what form?