Saturday Night Five: The South is worse than a hot mess, USC’s renewed hope, a new kind of Cougin’ It, and Cal’s close call

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TEMPE, AZ – NOVEMBER 03: Wide receiver Kyle Williams #10 of the Arizona State Sun Devils avoids a tackle from defensive back Javelin K. Guidry #28 of the Utah Utes during the first half of the college football game at Sun Devil Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Head coach Clay Helton of the USC Trojans calls for a touchdown during a video review late in the second quarter against the Washington State Cougars at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 21, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

PULLMAN, WA – NOVEMBER 03: Head coach Justin Wilcox of the California Golden Bears looks on during the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Martin Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Pullman, Washington. Washington State defeated California 19-13. (Photo by William Mancebo/Getty Images)

SEATTLE, WA – NOVEMBER 03: Myles Gaskin #9 of the Washington Huskies breaks a tackle against Paulson Adebo #11 of the Stanford Cardinal in the first quarter during their game at Husky Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

PULLMAN, WA – NOVEMBER 03: Quarterback Gardner Minshew II #16 of the Washington State Cougars throws a pass against the California Golden Bears in the first half at Martin Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Pullman, Washington. (Photo by William Mancebo/Getty Images)

SEATTLE, WA – NOVEMBER 03: K.J. Costello #3 of the Stanford Cardinal signals to teammates in the first quarter against the Washington Huskies during their game at Husky Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)

TEMPE, AZ – NOVEMBER 03: Wide receiver Solomon Enis #21 of the Utah Utes makes a reception against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first half of the college football game at Sun Devil Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

TUCSON, AZ – NOVEMBER 02: Wide receiver Stanley Berryhill III #86 of the Arizona Wildcats returns a kick-off against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half of the college football game at Arizona Stadium on November 2, 2018 in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

TUCSON, AZ – NOVEMBER 02: Quarterback Steven Montez #12 of the Colorado Buffaloes reacts with tight end Brady Russell #38 after an incomplete pass during the first half of the college football game against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium on November 2, 2018 in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

BOULDER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Offensive lineman Gus Lavaka #63 of the Oregon State Beavers celebrates after a 41-34 win over the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field on October 27, 2018 in Boulder, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

BOULDER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Quarterback Steven Montez #12 of the Colorado Buffaloes is sacked by linebacker Hamilcar Rashed Jr. #9 of the Oregon State Beavers in the second quarter of a game at Folsom Field on October 27, 2018 in Boulder, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

PASADENA, CA – OCTOBER 26: Chip Kelly head coach UCLA Bruins during a fourth quarter time out against Utah Utes at the Rose Bowl on October 26, 2018 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)

EUGENE, OR – OCTOBER 13: Quarterback Justin Herbert #10 of the Oregon Ducks passes the ball in the first half of the game at Autzen Stadium on October 13, 2018 in Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks won the game 30-27. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)

California wide receiver Vic Wharton III (17) runs with the ball during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Pullman, Wash., Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018. Washington State won 19-13. (AP Photo/Young Kwak)

I’m including Utah-Arizona State, which was certainly uncertain until Tyler Huntley left with a broken collarbone and the Sun Devils pulled away.

Would the outcome have been different with a healthy Huntley in the fourth quarter?

No way to know — ASU’s defense played as well as I’ve seen it this season (considering the style and quality of opponent) — but a one-score game in the final minutes seems like a reasonable projection.

But this much is clear:

The Pac-12 is eating itself whole, which makes for delicious November viewing but not-so-great postseason resumes.

Another factor to consider is the audience. Most of these drama-filled finishes are viewed by a small percentage of the college football world, either because of the late-night starts of the limited distribution of the Pac-12 Networks.

Take, for example, the conference’s highest-ranked team: Washington State played on the Pac12Nets last week at Stanford and kicked at 10:45 p.m. Eastern tonight against Cal.

The Cougars are fun to watch and have one of the best stories in the sport in Gardner Minshew, but their show has played to a limited audience.

The program received better exposure from GameDay’s visit to Pullman (1.8 million viewers) than it has from the actual game broadcasts the past two weeks.

I haven’t seen the TV schedule for Nov. 10 — that should be announced Sunday morning — but the conference would benefit from having its premium product in prime exposure windows.

2. USC is the team to beat in the South.

Only Arizona State currently controls its own destiny. But to believe the Sun Devils are the favorite is to believe they will beat UCLA at home and Oregon and Arizona on the road.

Count the Hotline as skeptical, especially given Oregon’s bounce-back showing today, Arizona’s recent momentum, and the home edge in both games.

Meanwhile to believe USC is the favorite is to believe the Trojans will beat Cal at home and UCLA on the road … and that ASU and Utah will each lose once.

The Utes’ path isn’t quite as difficult as ASU’s — they host Oregon and visit Colorado — but they must do it with an inexperienced quarterback (freshman Jason Shelley) and with the November demons attempting a horse-collar tackle.

We’ll avoid drawing too many conclusions from USC’s performance at Oregon State, a 17-point victory in the first game following Clay Helton’s staff shakeup.

But if the Trojans play well, they’ll handle the Bears and Bruins and be poised to pounce on the division crown if ASU and Utah stumble.

3. Speaking of the South …

It’s not merely mediocre, it’s spellbindingly mediocre. I cannot take my eyes off the standings: Every team has either three or four conference losses.

Consider this perspective:

Utah (4-3): No quarterback.Arizona (4-3): Lost at Houston by 27USC (4-3): Lost to Texas by 23Arizona State (3-3): Lost to San Diego State by seven.UCLA (2-4): Lost to Fresno State by 24Colorado (2-4): Lost to Oregon State

It might not be the worst division in the Power Five — the ACC Coastal and the Big Ten West are woeful — but it’s firmly on the bottom tier.

There are myriad reasons for the struggles, but one of them is, indisputably, the instability at quarterback:

Khalil Tate’s ankle undermined Arizona’s success for weeks.

USC lost a close game to Arizona State without JT Daniels.

UCLA lost its starter, Wilton Speight, to injury in Week One; then started a true freshman, Dorian Thompson-Robinson; then lost him to injury and reverted to Speight, then back to Thompson-Robinson, then Speight … you get the picture.

And now comes the Huntley injury, potentially (likely?) derailing Utah’s best chance to win the South.

Only Colorado’s Steven Montez and Arizona State’s Manny Wilkins have made every start, and CU, of course, has been without its best player, Laviska Shenault, for a month.

Transfer the quarterback health we’ve seen in the North to the South, and it would have performed much better overall.

4. ‘Coug’ It’ … in the Minshew era

I couldn’t have been alone in thinking Washington State would blow the game when Blake Mazza missed a 30-yard field goal with three minutes left and the score tied.

But for the second consecutive week, the Cougars found a way to win a game they would have lost in the past.

This year feels different — different for a slew of reasons but mostly because of Gardner Minshew: WSU looks like it expects to win (as opposed to hoping to win), and that starts with the transfer quarterback.

At least for this season, Minshew has flipped the definition of ‘Coug It’. Instead of finding ways to lose, the Cougars find ways to win:

They’re 3-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and the loss came in highly suspect circumstances at USC.

The Cougars are now three wins from the division title, or just two wins — so long as one of them is against Washington.

We’re all familiar with the Apple Cup scores of late, but my hunch is that Minshew, because he has no emotional scars from past beatings, will lift the Cougars out of their Husky funk.

Looking at WSU’s finishing run, I wonder about Arizona on Nov. 17. That shapes up as a trap game against a rapidly-improving opponent.

5. Cal comes oh-so-close.

The Hotline thought Cal made shrewd move hiring Justin Wilcox and has seen nothing over 21 months of his tenure to make me think the program isn’t in terrific hands for the long haul.

Well, almost nothing.

No defense in the conference is better coached than Cal’s — not Utah’s, not Washington, nobody’s. And Wilcox is unquestionably the right coach for the Bears, and Berkeley, on all fronts.

But the repeated use of Brandon McIlwain as a change-of-pace quarterback, by Wilcox and offensive coordinator Beau Baldwin, could very well end up costing the Bears a postseason bid.

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How many turnovers do they need to witness before realizing Cal has a far better chance for victory with Chase Garbers and only Chase Garbers in the game.

McIlwain has repeatedly committed game-changing (i.e., game-losing) turnovers over the past month, and he did it again tonight with an interception in the end zone in the fourth quarter.

And guess what: The Bears are running low on chances to get that sixth win.

They have USC and Stanford (oh-fer the decade against both), and then Colorado.

As stout as the defense is, the Bears aren’t good enough to beat the Trojans and Cardinal if they contribute to their own demise. And do they really want to put everything on the line in the finale?

They should start Garbers, they should stick with Garbers, and they should win or lose with Garbers.

It’s not that complicated.

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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.

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