Stuff

The monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out and has topline figures of CON 32%(+3), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(-1). Tabs are here.

Changes are from a month ago, just prior to the European elections. The two point Labour lead is the lowest that ComRes have shown in their online polls since February 2012, thought their telephone poll for the Independent had a one point lead earlier this year.

LD seats – there will be some shock ones that unravel on them though – by definition those are hard to see coming.
Perhaps Thornbury and Yate depending how well the Conservatives are doing nationally.
Devon North is certainly not safe.

True, but the SNP have been aiming for that middle ground for quite some time. Indeed, as you know there was once a time when the SNP were “Neither left nor right, but Scottish”.

At the very least, a name change for the SNP would seem likely. Perhaps the best option would be a two/three way split-

An SNP-Lib Dem merger might be the easiest, in that the two parties have tended to have been substitutes (almost everywhere the one party does well, the other party does not so well) and both parties have historically been left-wing alternatives to SLAB. The Lib Dems would also be keen to ditch their tainted brand. The “Democratic” or “Reform” etc. labels would suit such a centrist, decentralising, non-ideological and rurally conscious party.

The Tories would also be interested in a brand-change, I suspect, and it is often said that the likes of Fergus Ewing and Murdo Fraser could work well in a reformed centre-right party free of certain historical legacies. Either UKIP or the Lib Dems could merge into such a party, depending on how it went; I would ideally like to see a sort of Liberal Conservative party formed, with an ideological base in the notion of freedom and responsibility.

As for a SLAB-SNP merger, I wonder about this. There are some elements in SLAB who I could see going into a centrist party like the one I described above, and others (particularly in Glasgow) who could form a left-wing party with a lot of the SNP that would be very firmly to the left. Some broad title like “the Left party” could work well in terms of appealing to people in the Green party.

(I don’t know enough about the Greens to say how, if at all, they might change arrangements. Of all the parties of note in Scotland, they seem best positioned for independence, both in terms of organisational separation- like the SNP- and having a distinct ideology that would be relevant after an Aye vote- like the unionist parties.)

W Aberdeenshire is the one about which I’m most doubtful, but I doubt the Tories’ ability to win it, and think the SNP are slightly too far behind. Inverness & Caithness could be Labour or SNP gains, but I still think the anti-LD vote will split & just let the incumbents in. NE Fife – who beats the LDs there? The SNP would need a huge swing, and instinctively I don’t see it as a very natural SNP area.

For the Scottish Lib Dem seats, I think a lot depends on what happens in September and what happens to the SNP in the event of a Naw vote.

If we vote Aye, I really have no idea what will happen to our Westminster seats. There may even be some sort of agreement to limit the voting powers of Scottish MPs, so that they couldn’t vote on the rUK side of the settlement.

If we vote Naw, for the Lib Dems so much depends on what happens to the SNP vote. The only seats I definitely see them losing to Labour are East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West; elsewhere, I think that the Labour vote is pretty well maxed out. So if there’s a big threat to the LDs in Scotland, it comes from the SNP moving into their Highlands/Aberdeenshire seats, and this depends on how well the SNP holds up in the aftermath of a Naw vote.

Existing parties will try to reposition themselves to try to protect their professional politicians.

Voters will decide how to exercise their vote, (most with little regard as to the career prospects of ex-SPADs)

I’ll just vote Green, as the party that most clearly represents what I’d like to see implemented (while trusting that the AMS system will prevent them actually implementing some of their nuttier ideas! :-)

Interesting prediction. My general sense is that Scotland is rather overfull of left-wing parties, and that the LDs/SLAB/SNP are separate largely due to historical reasons that would have little relevance after an Aye vote, but it can be hard to see distinctions when I’m far away!

3 stand out stars of the England team tonight. Time for some of our leaders to celebrate the diversity of our nation and point out how it strengthens our country. I’m sure most reasonable people would agree that the 3 players above are a credit to England.

Hopefully some good old football will help overcome the anti immigrant rhetoric that seems to have invaded UK politics of late, and burst a bit of that UKIP bubble.

Lab has potential to get back 2% of Lab 2010 voters from UKiP and 2% from Others – no idea how you could find the policies to attract them all.

UKIP still taking 4% from Con

Also for the 3rd month running, after the unemployment figures there is a big improvement in the answers to ‘how is the economy doing question’, , now -11%

But

There is no improvement in the personal finance question as usual

‘How do you think the financial situation of your
household will change over the next 12 months’? at -16% and remains in -15% to -20% range.

UKIP voters very negative at -33%, Lab voters also at -32%, Cons at +23% very positive and rising, but that is no good for changing voting intentions, the Cons want the Lab and UKIP voters to feel more positive so perhaps they might change their vote, absolutely no sign of it.

UKIP supporters are right to be pessimistic about their household income – based entirely on the media stereotype of the average UKIP voter, an interest rates rise will take the shine off their new found ‘property wealth’ while the loan-to-value rules that we are now threatened with will reduce their scope for ‘equity withdrawl’.

The fact that such individuals are being saved from their own folly will not dawn on them.

I disagree, if the LD % share of the total GB vote remains as low as 7%. Their support has dropped significantly in the last few months and they are no longer perceived as the main alternative to Con and Lab. It would require massive concentration of the remaining LD support in their strongholds to win 38/632, i.e. 6% of the total GB seats.

While the LD leadership has remained true to “neo-liberal” values, forming a coalition with the Tories has alienated their former radical anti-Tory supporters. They are also perceived as dishonourable due to their multiplicity of U turns and are regarded as the most toxic of the GB parties with current representation at Westminster. NC is the least liked of the 3 main party leaders (leaving aside NF).

Pre-2010 evidence of voter behaviour regarding the LDs is of limited value as they are now part of the ConDem government. Tactical voting for the LDs is now much less likely, but they might hold out in a few more seats (as they did at the Eastleigh BE) if the anti-LD vote is split. In 2015, pro-government voters in a LD-held Con-LD marginal might as well support the main government party; anti-government voters won’t vote for either Con or LD.

I don’t see the connection between the performance of the England team and the strengthening of the UK, which is a multi-national state. The existence of separate sports teams for the different parts of the UK only emphasizes that England does not equal the UK.

PS. In terms of the diversity of the England team, you have overlooked Phil Jagielka, who is of Polish and Scottish descent.

We will see about that, I think the UKIP share will reduce as people see the choice is clear between Milband or Cameron in Number 10. That is the stark choice for voters and the more Miliband will have to be seen over the coming months, the more unpopular he becomes.