Roundball Mining Company » Kenyon Martinhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com
We'll move the earth for a title!Tue, 03 Mar 2015 18:18:08 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1End of an era: One fan’s struggle to embrace a Hall of Fame coachhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/06/11/end-of-an-era-one-fans-struggle-to-embrace-a-hall-of-fame-coach/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/06/11/end-of-an-era-one-fans-struggle-to-embrace-a-hall-of-fame-coach/#commentsWed, 12 Jun 2013 00:29:41 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=6588I can’t lie. I’ve thought about writing this article for years. Years. After each futile, heartless, disappointing exit in the first round of the playoffs, I was so ready to write this article that I couldn’t sleep. This year was no different. This year I wanted it just as bad as I have for the last several years. And yet, here it is, less than a week since Karl was let go, and I’m not sure I even want to write it anymore.

Every last drop of frustration I’ve ever had in regards to George Karl and his quirky coaching methods has already been documented on this site. My well has run dry, so to speak. I can’t stand his stubbornness. I loathe his half-assed approach to working the refs and lighting a fire beneath his players’ rear ends when they’re sluggish and disheartened. I hate (yes, hate) the way he’s treated players like J.R. Smith and JaVale McGee, who need encouragement and guidance rather than constant berating and punishment. And each new season I cringe at the idea of watching him do the exact same things, in the exact same manner, that got him bounced in the first round of the playoffs the year before: no offensive sets, no defense, blind favoritism, (insert whatever other elementary aspect of basketball you can think of). But above all else, when I look back, the one thing that bugged me the most, that absolutely drove me up a wall, was the inability to criticize Karl — or even question him, for that matter — without feeling like a complete outsider, like a pariah who simply didn’t appreciate his greatness. Because the truth is, although I’ve often written about my strong distaste for his coaching methods, I’ve never really felt comfortable doing so.

You see, Karl was never just a coach in Denver. Not even close. Karl was a roundball deity sent straight from the heavens to resurrect Denver basketball from the depths of ineptitude and irrelevancy where it had resided for so many decades before — at least, that’s what we were told to believe. And if you’d been a lifelong fan of the Nuggets or someone who followed the team loosely and watched the media contrive annual features about his personal health struggles off the floor (which I admire him for overcoming) or how his longevity went hand in hand with greatness (so not true), you would have no problem buying into this narrative. But for fans like me — relatively young, open minded… not used to looking forward to the Draft Lottery each year — this was never an appealing ticket to purchase. To me, Karl was just a coach, and that was exactly the problem.

Saying Karl is responsible for The Renaissance of Denver Basketball is like saying Elvis Presley was responsible for the invention of Rock and Roll. Did he have a huge hand in shaping the direction of the movement? Absolutely. Was he incredibly talented? No doubt about it. Was he the face of the product he was representing? Without question. But was he the master architect of his realm, the man who built his form of craft from the ground up, fine tuning the rough spots and delving into the abyss of his own creativity to return with something unprecedented? Absolutely not.

Karl changed the way people viewed the Nuggets, just as Elvis changed the way people viewed Rock and Roll. He was a catalyst. In the end he may very well be remembered as “The King” of the Denver Nuggets, but let’s get one thing straight here: Karl coached. He did not draft players. He did not execute trades. He did not cajole free agents into coming to Denver (though he may have convinced them to leave!). In fact, the one time we know Karl put his general manager hat on he essentially thwarted the Nuggets from acquiring Linas Kleiza for David Lee because he liked Kleiza’s outside shooting — or something unreasonable like that. So the idea that Karl is solely responsible for the revival of basketball in Denver is erroneous to the highest degree and ignorant of so many other factors, mainly the Nuggets’ change in ownership and recent succession of outstanding general manager performances that resulted in a mass accumulation of talent, the likes of which the franchise had never seen before.

Just look at the list of names Karl’s had the opportunity to work with during his nine-year career in Denver starting with this past year’s roster: Andre Iguodala (All-Star, Olympian, top 10 pick in the draft), Ty Lawson (ACC Player of the Year, Bob Cousy award winner, fringe All-Star), Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried (NCAA’s all time leading rebounder, All-Rookie First Team) Evan Fournier, Danilo Gallinari (top 10 pick in the draft, fringe All-Star… if he ever stays healthy), Andre Miller (top 10 all time in assists, top 10 pick in the draft), Arron Afflalo, Chris Andersen, Al Harrington (Sixth Man of the Year finalist in 2012), Nene (top 10 pick in the draft), Chauncey Billups (NBA champion and Finals MVP, five time All-Star, top three pick in the draft), Carmelo Anthony (six time All-Star, NBA scoring champion, top three pick in the draft), Raymond Felton, Kenyon Martin (All-Star, No. 1 pick in the draft), J.R. Smith (Sixth Man of the Year winner in 2013), Allen Iverson (NBA MVP, 11 time All-Star, four time NBA scoring champion, No. 1 pick in the draft), Marcus Camby (Defensive Player of the Year, top three pick in the draft).

The idea that Karl has somehow squeezed refreshing, juicy, thirst-quenching lemonade out of a batch of rotten lemons year after year is one theory I will never understand. Outside of San Antonio, L.A. (Lakers), Dallas and Miami, I’m not sure there’s been another team in the NBA that’s had more talent flow in and out of its arena doors since Karl arrived with the Nuggets in 2005. Again, look at the list above and tell me Karl hasn’t had everything you could possibly ask for as ahead coach in the NBA. Great GMs? Check. A superstar player? Check two of the list. Leaders? Check. Defensive specialists? Check. Elite 3-point shooters? Check. A deep roster? Check, check and check.

But no matter what the roster entailed, Karl always had excuses for losing when it mattered most. When he had superstars he complained about team cohesion and immaturity. Rather than accepting the challenge of mitigating egos and in turn demanding perfection on both ends of the floor, Karl let the inmates run the asylum and seemed content to sit back and collect a paycheck while appearing disinterested and apathetic from the sidelines (after all, blogs like firegeorgekarl.com don’t get conceived for no reason). And once he finally had the roster he wanted, Karl already had an excuse built right into the structure of the team: He could always fall back on the alibi that he needed a big-time shot maker to win in close postseason games. Of his nine playoff appearances in Denver the only time Karl ever did anything worth noting was in 2009 when the Nuggets went to the Western Conference Finals. But as any Nuggets fan who meticulously followed that season will tell you, it was Billups who did most of the coaching, not Karl.

From an outsider’s perspective, Karl must have looked like a genius in Denver. He racked up 423 wins with the Nuggets, placing him second all time and only nine games behind Doug Moe’s 432 franchise wins for most as head coach in team history. Five of his last six seasons he notched 50 wins. And this year, after guiding the Nuggets to their best single-season record in franchise history, Karl was crowned NBA Coach of the Year for the first time in his near 30-year career in the league. If you judged Karl based on his regular season performances alone, you’d never have any reason to let him go. The Nuggets would have already inked him to a lifetime extension three years ago and would have currently been in the process of erecting his statue outside the Pepsi Center. But in every sport, there will always come a time when each respective league or tournament must agree to crown a champion. This is the best part of sports. It’s why the game is played. It’s called the postseason. And it’s where Karl failed most frequently.

I don’t claim to be a psychologist, but I feel the way I’m built, for whatever reason, understanding the mental aspect of sports has always been my greatest strength. When I watched Karl and his teams implode year after year in the playoffs I always felt it was as much mental as a breakdown of the system Karl employed for his players. Surely the fastbreak offense wasn’t meant to be run in May and June, but watching the Nuggets match up against their opponent was often like watching varsity play J.V. It seemed unfair. It was as if the varsity team (the team not named the Nuggets) had a better coach (not always the case), better players (not always the case) and much more confidence in their abilities (always the case). Sure the Nuggets would hang around for a while, but in every series there inevitably came a time when the Nuggets would just, break, down. It was always only a matter of time. Even in the Western Conference Finals when the Nuggets stormed in as a two seed and were a mere two games away from making the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history, they could not prevent the inexorable breakdown.

Look, these things happen. Teams lose in the playoffs. Even really good teams like the Spurs in 2011 and Mavericks in 2007 (and Supersonics in 1994, coached by none other than George Karl!) get overwhelmed by bad matchups and drop a few they probably shouldn’t. But with Karl, these “bad” playoff losses happened every single year. Every single year. Every. Single. Year. Karl’s eight first-round exits in nine years is bad enough on paper. But when you factor in player-coach feuds, suspensions, Karl’s long history of underachieving in the postseason and a general consensus among fans that on more than one occasion Karl’s teams basically quite on him in the playoffs, it becomes much more than just losing to a higher seed. At that point you have all the scientific evidence you’ll ever need to conclude that George Karl isn’t the coach to take you to the Promised Land. And if he’s not that, why should a team chasing a championship keep him around?

As a way of somehow defending him and fortifying his worth, Karl apologists always had a counterargument to the above thesis. It went something like, “You can’t lose in the playoffs unless you make it there first.”I always thought it to be one of the more lazy attempts to cover his ass that I’ve ever heard, but regardless, these types never seemed to look at the other side of the coin, being, “What’s the point in making the playoffs every year if you know once you get there you’re not gonna put up a fight?” In theory, wouldn’t you be much better off floundering in the lottery for a few seasons with a chance to land a player like Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving?

For nearly a decade the Nuggets have missed that opportunity. Not that it’s a bad thing — I don’t think anyone is saying they regret the last nine years Karl’s been at the helm. But the idea that perpetually making the playoffs only to bow out in the first round without a fight is somehow better than (A) contending for a title, or (B) tanking it so that you can obtain a horde of star players to again one day contend for a title, is just not correct. In other spots? Sure. But not in the NBA. The way the NBA is structured, you’re much better off suffering through a few dismal seasons of ineptitude than being just good enough to make the playoffs and lose in the first round. Just ask Matt. He’s a Bucks fan and will tell you exactly how awesome it is.

The point is: Under Karl, the Nuggets have been neither really good nor average. They’ve been good. They’ve been the epitome of mediocrity. Karl’s had everything you could imagine in terms of roster flexibility, talent and managers, and it’s showed in his regular season records. He’s had stars; he’s had perhaps the deepest teams in the league. He’s finished as eight and five seeds; he’s finished as two and three seeds. But throughout the roster overturn, Karl’s always churned out the same heartless, disappointing, underachieving results in the postseason. And for the first time since Karl arrived in Denver in 2005 it appears ownership has finally realized: It’s not a player problem; it’s a coaching problem.

Over the years, Karl has grown on me. Perhaps I finally gave in and seceded that as long as Karl wanted to coach, he’d coach in Denver. After all, the Nuggets and Karl were a match made in heaven. (A franchise haunted by failure and instability meets a Hall of Fame coach who does nothing but win games in the regular season to the tune of an exciting, high-octane offensive assault? Perfect!) I guess I learned to appreciate (or rather, tolerate) the consistency and stability (weren’t these always the euphemisms for mediocrity?) he brought to the franchise. Although I knew every year would bring another disappointing first-round loss, I also had 82 games of pretty fun basketball to look forward to. So, there was always that.

I also have great respect and admiration for the way Karl has handled the many perilous obstacles in his life. He hasn’t always been dealt the most robust hand, yet he’s powered through one struggle after another to continue to do what he loves. His involvement in the community, especially with St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and those affected by cancer, is an honorable undertaking that goes far beyond a simple ball game. Karl is a man who’s worked his way from the ground up and accomplished feats only a handful of people ever have. He is truly unique in every sense of the word. He’s a man with great pride who’s mastery of his craft will remain firmly entwined into the minds and hearts of Nuggets fans forever. Though I may disagree with Karl on virtually everything in terms of basketball, I cannot agree enough with the decision he made long ago to help others become better at the things they do, be it playing basketball or recovering from chemotherapy. Karl is truly a philanthropist and because of that I will always, always respect him as a selfless human being.

But without further ado, it’s time we bid farewell to perhaps the most successful era in Nuggets franchise history and usher in a new, and hopefully even more successful one. Though many coaches will follow in his footsteps and achieve a large number of wins (postseason, preferably), Karl will always be remembered as one of the founding fathers, perhaps even “The King” of Nuggets basketball.

Goodbye Karl.

It’s been one hell of a ride.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/06/11/end-of-an-era-one-fans-struggle-to-embrace-a-hall-of-fame-coach/feed/54Rapid Reaction: Nuggets 117 vs Knicks 94http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/03/13/rapid-reaction-nuggets-117-vs-knicks-94/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/03/13/rapid-reaction-nuggets-117-vs-knicks-94/#commentsThu, 14 Mar 2013 05:16:02 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=5729The Nuggets spoiled Carmelo Anthony’s return to Denver with a blowout win. ‘Melo left the game with a sore knee and spent some time in the locker room, inspiring chants of “where is Melo” from the crowd.

Gallinari looked really good when he went to the rim or got to the line, and really awful shooting jumpers. He played great defense on Carmelo Anthony for part of the first quarter, and later forced two turnovers by drawing offensive fouls away from the ball.

Faried started out the game taking several jump shots. He eventually settled down and started taking shots closer to the rim, but missed several tip tries. He outhustled the Knicks for several offensive rebounds, particularly after Tyson Chandler left the game.

It seems like every game I grade, I end up writing something like “Koufos was quietly effective”. He continues to play fundamental basketball with good positioning, and make the most of his opportunities.

Ty was aggressive getting into the paint all night, but had a bit of trouble finishing over Tyson Chandler. His shot was falling from the outside and his passing was crisp. He would likely have finished with a double double if Gallinari’s shot had been falling.

Igoudala has emerged as a solid secondary playmaker for the Nuggets, setting up a ton of easy scores. Tonight he tried to do a little too much and forced several passes into traffic. He was hitting his own shots from everywhere except the free throw line. He had a few spectacular defensive sequences in the second half.

On one late sequence, Hamilton missed a jumper that led to a Knicks fast break off the long rebound, and then got downcourt in time to swat James White’s layup attempt into the stands. His shot wasn’t falling, but he was making good contributions in other parts of the game.

Brewer usually provides the Nuggets with great energy, but tonight the starters had all the energy they needed, and he seemed a step slow by comparison. He did a little bit of everything, but nothing particularly well.

In a game where the Nuggets were completely dominant in the paint, and the Knicks’ only center left with an injury, the athletic seven footer decided to take a 16 foot jumper that missed everything. He also had one nice block and a layup from freakishly far away from the basket. It was a very inconsistent game overall.

Fournier looks completely lost on the defensive end of the court, and too often gets caught needing to foul. He stepped up offensively when tacos seemed to be in doubt, setting up Chandler for a three point play and scoring five of his own to push the Nuggets over the 110 point mark.

Wilson Chandler spent most of the night taking advantage of the Knicks’ lack of shot blocking. On two occasions he grabbed a rebound, dribbled fullcourt, and got a lightly contested layup.

George Karl

The Nuggets came out ready to play, and they didn’t let up until the game was out of reach. His small lineups worked well against the Knicks’ small lineups.

Two Things We Saw

That was anticlimactic: In Carmelo’s first game in Denver since the trade, the game was over before halftime, and he left for good less than three minutes into the second half.

That was oddly familiar: Four former Nuggets played at least 20 minutes for the Knicks, and many of the Nuggets’ old habits were on display, both good and bad. There were times the Knicks seemed content to settle for long jumpers off of little ball movement, and times when J.R. Smith looked completely unguardable. This game definitely highlighted the change between the Carmelo era and the new Nuggets team era.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/03/13/rapid-reaction-nuggets-117-vs-knicks-94/feed/58The importance of the Denver Nuggets 2012 training camphttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/08/13/the-importance-of-the-denver-nuggets-2012-training-camp/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/08/13/the-importance-of-the-denver-nuggets-2012-training-camp/#commentsMon, 13 Aug 2012 11:33:58 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=4391With the curtains having closed on the Olympics we have officially entered the basketball doldrums, a time when we can review the past and speculate on the future, but must wait patiently for the return of live games. The silver lining this summer is that the NBA has returned to normal. The 2011 lockout is sealed in the history books, and we have a full 82-game season to look forward to, including a regular media day, training camp and preseason schedule.

But though the comfort of traditional routine has been restored in the bigger NBA picture, the Denver Nuggets find themselves in a uniquely interesting position. As a result of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups being traded during the 2010-11 season prior to the lockout, combined with the subsequent trades of Nene and Arron Afflalo as well as the departures of Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith in free agency, only two current Nuggets players, Andre Miller from 2003-06 and Ty Lawson from 2009-10, have gone through training camp at the Pepsi Center. And no two Denver players have done so together.

Remarkably, Ty Lawson is the only holdover on the Nuggets roster from when the sun set on the Melo era nearly a year and a half ago. Along with Lawson, the nine (nine!) current players acquired by Denver over the year prior to the start of the 2011-12 season – Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, Jordan Hamilton, Kosta Koufos, Andre Miller, Timofey Mozgov and Julyan Stone – were deprived of training camp last year by the lockout. And of course the players who joined the Nuggets this year – Evan Fournier, Andre Iguodala, JaVale McGee, Quincy Miller and Anthony Randolph – simply haven’t been around long enough to have the opportunity yet.

It is difficult to overstate how impressive it was for Denver to attain the sixth seed in a highly competitive Western Conference last season and take the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink of postseason elimination, considering the fact that most of its players were more or less thrown together on the fly. True, every team in the league missed the chance to have training camp, but few had gone through as complete a roster overhaul as the Nuggets.

Given last season’s success, the addition of All-Star and Olympic gold medalist Iguodala, the apparent dedication to improvement shown by McGee as he trains with Hakeem Olajuwon, and the entire crop of young, exciting players who are hungry for their chance to develop and earn playing time, the upcoming training camp should be one of the most exciting and important for the Nuggets in many years.

I recently wrote a fairly optimistic post on the prospect of Iguodala improving Denver’s perimeter defense. In comments and in RMC’s more recent 5-on-5 piece, Kalen and Jeremy were quick to point out that the numbers may not tell the whole story, and that without an improvement in overall team defense an individual player may not be able to make significant improvements, points which I readily concede.

So one thing Nuggets fans should be hoping for from the upcoming training camp is that Denver uses it as an opportunity to instill, as Kalen said, “a renewed sense of dedication to defense.” While it may be hard to pinpoint who precisely to blame for the unfortunate regression in the Nuggets’ perimeter defense last season, I would propose that pointing a finger at the absence of Kenyon Martin might be a reasonable place to start.

“Defensive quarterback” was a term often used in describing K-Mart’s captaincy. It was a role he seemed to take pride in, and he grew into it even more enthusiastically after Melo was traded. Whether or not that role fell or should have fallen to Afflalo, he is gone, and that point is moot. What matters now is that the team requires rejuvenated defensive leadership.

Likewise, the Nuggets need clear leadership on offense. Since the departure of Billups, several players have taken their turns in leading at various times, but no single player has clearly emerged as “the guy” who will rally the troops.

In training camp, captains (plural because the Nuggets always have more than one) will be chosen. Roles and goals will be clearly defined. The excitement of all these young players finally having the chance to go through the process together, learning the playbook, developing chemistry and battling for the chance to see court time, should energize the team. But equally important is the need for key players to assume the mantle of responsibility in leading this roster through a successful season and into a future as a legitimate title contender.

It’s time for the future leaders of the Nuggets to become leaders in the present tense. Ty Lawson must assume control. The offense starts with him, and he dictates the terms of how the rest of the team plays. As Charlie recently pointed out, his arc of improvement and strengthening of mentality over the course of the last playoff series was highly encouraging. He needs to continue building on that progress and grow into the leader the Nuggets will need him to be if they’re to offer him the kind of contract extension he hopes to land..

Gallo, too, must own his role as a go-to guy. He gets some slack for being injured over a large part of last season, but he has to step up now and be a presence of confidence and stability who the coaching staff can trust (in how many games has he not closed out the fourth quarter?) and who his teammates can rely on.

On defense, the Nuggets will need Iguodala to be the coach on the floor that Kenyon once was, directing his teammates and helping them stay focused on their roles. If he can successfully take on this kind of leaderhip, it will go a long way towards reifying my optimism regarding his defensive impact, transcending his individual skills and strengthening those of his team as a whole.

Denver was already going to be a better team next season by virtue of the improvement of its developing players and by being able to prepare properly. But now that the talent level has been raised by landing Iguodala, training camp this season represents an even greater opportunity not only to get better, but to genuinely break through and elevate the team to the next level.

Let’s hope they capitalize on it.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/08/13/the-importance-of-the-denver-nuggets-2012-training-camp/feed/18Free Agency: Nuggets to meet with JaVale, Rudy unrestrictedhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/07/01/free-agency-nuggets-to-meet-with-javale-rudy-unrestricted/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/07/01/free-agency-nuggets-to-meet-with-javale-rudy-unrestricted/#commentsSun, 01 Jul 2012 19:21:33 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=4070It was more or less a foregone conclusion that JaVale McGee would become a restricted free agent, but Masai Ujiri’s penchant for secrecy couldn’t help but get a few fans worried when free agency opened without any official confirmation on McGee’s qualifying offer one way or the other. In a series of tweets on Sunday morning, Ken Berger of CBS Sports broke the silence and confirmed that the Nuggets have in fact gone through the obvious formality of extending the qualifying offer to McGee, making him a restricted free agent and allowing the Nuggets to match any offer he could receive from another team.

Berger went on to reveal that Rudy Fernandez did not receive a qualifying offer, essentially ending whatever slim hope there was of Rudy returning to the Nuggets or eventually being signed and traded to another team. Rudy will now be unrestricted and free to sign with any NBA team, but he’s currently rehabbing in Spain with an eye on playing in the London Olympics. From what I’ve been told about Rudy’s contract with Real Madrid during last year’s lockout, a deal is already in place for him to return to the Spanish team for multiple seasons after he has fulfilled his NBA contract. Considering Madrid just lost up-and-comer Kyle Singler to the NBA’s Detroit Pistons, I think it’s a safe bet they go hard after Rudy and even if they don’t, holding onto Rudy’s rights isn’t likely to pay off for the Nuggets anyway. I’m pretty certain this is farewell for Rudy and the Nuggets, and quite possibly the NBA as well.

As of now, that’s all to report on where the Nuggets currently stand in free agency. JaVale is obviously the top priority with unrestricted free agent Andre Miller not far behind. Jeremy already did a great job previewing free agency last week, and while I do not mean to rehash his entire post, I’ll bring up a lot of the same points to preview how I think free agency is likely to play out for the Nuggets.

Salary Cap

The Nuggets are in good shape financially, sitting around $10 million under the cap although all of the usable cap space is tied up in holds for Andre Miller, JaVale McGee and Rudy Fernandez (Denver still holds his bird rights despite the fact they’ve let Rudy become unrestricted). Even if they decide they have no plans Rudy and renounce his rights, the Nuggets can’t offer a free agent substantial money without doing the same for McGee and Miller, which has no chance of happening.

The Nuggets do have their midlevel exception available for up to $5 million, which could be used to offer middle and lower tier free agents. As I predicted in our Draft Roundtable a couple of days ago, I think the Nuggets may decide to use a small portion of this to give Quincy Miller a longer term contract that the minimum one mandated for second round picks. If the Nuggets are not able to retain Andre Miller, I think the Nuggets “plan B” will be using part of the midlevel on a backup guard for somewhere between $2 and $4 million a year.

I agree with Jeremy in that it’s much more likely the Nuggets address their needs via a trade than through free agency. Even though Denver has managed the cap wisely and could have money to spend, the Nuggets have only two roster spots and extremely limited playing time available. In my opinion, Masai Ujiri has been making cap-saving moves with an eye towards maintaining the flexibility necessary to keep JaVale and Ty Lawson, who is entering the last year of his rookie deal. A great example of this was wiping out the cap hold for a first round pick by selecting Evan Fournier and stashing him overseas for a year or two. If the Nuggets need to stretch their pocketbook a bit to lock up JaVale and Ty this year, they’ve maximized their flexibility to do so.

Targets – JaVale and Andre

I literally can’t think of any free agents who make sense beyond these two. JaVale is obviously the number one priority, a player who showed star potential in the playoffs against one of the best front lines in the NBA. He came off the bench and lacked consistency throughout his short stint in Denver, but his production was solid across the board and there’s little reason to believe he won’t continue to improve and produce in the Nuggets system, where JaVale showed he could be a very good fit.

The market for JaVale is extremely difficult to predict. For instance, defensive specialist Omer Asik is reprotedly set to make somewhere around $8 million a year, while well-rounded All-Star Roy Hibbert will likely get the max, which starts around $14 million. An extremely rudimentary guess would put a fair contract for JaVale around $12 million, who isn’t the proven All-Star Hibbert is but has the same game changing potential — a quality you just won’t find even in a solid big man like Asik.

As far as Andre Miller goes, Jeremy doesn’t believe he’s a good fit and is very skeptical the Nuggets keep him around. While I agree on the part about fit, I find it hard to believe the Nuggets don’t find a way to bring him back. I seriously doubt George Karl will allow it, and Andre is in a good position to get market value from the Nuggets. Backup point guard is a huge area of need and once again, I’m struggling to come up with sensible options that fit into the Karl culture. Andre doesn’t fit with the long-term goal of building a young championship core and doesn’t provide a big enough short-term boost to make the Nuggets contenders now. Still, the Nuggets will rationalize signing him with the Karl factor and the fact he could help the development of Faried and McGee.

Wildcards

I would hate to be Masai Ujiri faced with the prospect of matching a max offer for JaVale McGee. Most fans and pundits would skewer him for maxing out such a controversial player, but I fail to see how he has any choice. The Nuggets can’t realistically compete without signing him and do not have a clear path to rebuild without him. Ideally, Masai avoids the nightmare scenario of maxing out a player who clearly hasn’t proven he’s worth it, but I think the Nuggets match anything while hoping he develops and remains tradeable thanks to his age, potential, and injury-free history. Still, I can’t deny this scenario scares me to no end. At the very least, the maximum deal JaVale can get from another team is for four years. The lockout was a terrible mess, but the one thing it did accomplish was making it impossible for another seven year max contract to cripple a franchise a la Kenyon Martin.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/07/01/free-agency-nuggets-to-meet-with-javale-rudy-unrestricted/feed/35Nuggets News: Gallo’s return and a Chandler updatehttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/02/27/nuggets-news-gallos-return-and-a-chandler-update/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/02/27/nuggets-news-gallos-return-and-a-chandler-update/#commentsTue, 28 Feb 2012 01:27:31 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=3505For those not following us on twitter, there’s been a couple more rumors swirling around the ongoing Wilson Chandler saga. The first coming out of hoopshype stating that the Toronto Raptors are actively trying to free up space for an offer sheet by trading Leandro Barbosa. The second and most compelling rumor causing much consternation amongst Nuggets fans is out of Sportando, an Italian basketball website which is reporting that Chandler’s agent Chris Luchey is “in serious talks with an Italian team to seal a deal for rest of season.”

Both rumors are sourced only to twitter and it’s fair to say they’re rooted in speculation more than anything else right now. As we’ve gone through several times with the Chandler situation, he is in a unique position and only able to negotiate in earnest with one team — the Denver Nuggets.

I would not put a lot of stock into the Leandro Barbosa rumors. He’s been on the trade block for a while and the Raptors know that desperately giving him away in a hurry is a questionable move considering there is no guarantee Denver does not just match their offer sheet. As has been reported by ESPN and Hoopsworld, the Raptors seem resigned to the fact that putting together an offer sheet at this late stage is not likely to work out well.

The rumors of Chandler’s agent negotiating with Italy only reinforces our view that Denver holds all the cards in terms of Wilson returning to the NBA. It’s clear that he wants to be in the NBA, even going so far as to negotiate an early release from his Chinese team and seek an early letter of clearance from FIBA. As we have assumed for a long time, Denver has no interest in signing Chandler short term and granting him the holy grail of unrestricted free agency in exchange for a few months of service.

Wilson must feel he is being forced over to Europe due to Denver not willing to accept a one year deal. Chandler can certainly apply pressure by threatening to head over to Europe for the remainder of the season, but Denver would still own his rights whenever he returns. Not to mention Chandler runs the risk of serious injury while he remains a free agent and there is no guarantee he will be rewarded with the richer contract he’s seeking by waiting till the summer.

The Nuggets are playing hardball with Chandler, as expected. All it means as the process will be longer and more drawn out as Chandler exercises his leverage and continues to test Denver’s resolve to give him the long-term deal he seeks. The Nuggets clearly seem more interested in protecting themselves rather than just getting him on the floor and it looks like a 50/50 proposition in terms of whether or not he’ll be back.

I highly recommend following us on twitter, as I often discuss Chandler stuff there and the situation is such that we won’t post about every future development as it occurs. You can follow me here and go ahead and give Kalen and Jeremy a follow as well.

On to the current links and Nuggets news, bullet-style this time for convenience.

Sportando -Danilo Gallinari: “I hope to be back in 10 days” – In an interview with Italian TV, Gallo said his recovery is going well but he is not yet running and hopes to return in the next 10 days. That would mean he’s likely to miss 3 or 4 more games and return in the middle of Denver’s 9-game home stand starting in March. Possible dates for return are 3/5 versus Sacramento or 3/7 versus Cleveland. Things will be tough without Gallo for the first three games after the break, but the schedule gets considerably easier afterwards.

Euronews – Gallinari signs endorsement deal with Adidas - this article is in Italian, but thanks to Google translate and a little bit of digging I’ve discovered that Gallo signed a new shoe contract just before the All-Star break. Since his arrival in the NBA after being drafted by the New York Knicks, Gallo has been a Reebok athlete. He switched to Adidas, the parent company of Reebok, sometime during the lockout last summer in which he played with Olimpia Milano. Gallo seems to have now inked a long-term deal to wear Adidas for the foreseeable future.

Denver Post – Karl responds to Kenyon Martin criticism – I’m just trolling with this one. George Karl takes the high road and offers a politically correct response to Kenyon Martin’s recent tirade against his former coach and the Nuggets organization.

Mark Kiszla – Nuggets swoon? Put the blame on George Karl - Mark Kiszla cites George Karl’s nonchalant attitude towards losing with injured players as one of the main reasons for the Nuggets’ slide out of the playoff picture. In an interesting development, this is the first time I’ve seen a member of the Denver news media criticize Karl’s coaching performance.

Twitter – Just another reminder that the best way to keep up with the latest developments on Wilson Chandler is to follow us on twitter. You can get the commentary and updates from us there as the saga continues. I also tweet during most games. Once again, here’s the links to follow us:Charlie | Jeremy | Kalen

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/02/27/nuggets-news-gallos-return-and-a-chandler-update/feed/3Nuggets News: Rumors and rants editionhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/02/18/chris-andersen-on-trading-block-wilson-chandler-to-return-early/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/02/18/chris-andersen-on-trading-block-wilson-chandler-to-return-early/#commentsSat, 18 Feb 2012 19:50:37 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=3390[Note: The first two stories are the previous entrees about Chris Andersen and Wilson Chandler; the next few, however, are stories that have come to light since this post was originally created.]

ESPN.com is reporting (Insider only) that Nuggets center, Chris “Birdman” Andersen is on the trading block with Koufos having been recently re-signed and playing solid basketball. There have reportedly not been any immediate suitors for Andersen, although as the trade deadline approaches this could change quickly. Although Birdman is 33 and still has two years at just below $10 million left on his contract, he might be an enticing option for a title contender who needs defensive help in the front court.

In other news, ESPN.com is reporting Wilson Chandler could return to the U.S. sooner than expected. According to Marc Stein, Chandler’s Chinese Basketball Association team, the Zhejiang Lions, made a deal with the former Nugget that as long as he managed to get the Lions to the Playoffs he could then come back to his home country earlier than expected. However, even though Lions management is willing to part with him, Chandler still must receive his FIBA letter of clearance in order to play in the NBA and it is unknown whether Chinese officials would be willing to bend on their harsh stance in regards to this issue. There is some speculation that if Chandler attends Sunday’s CBA All Star game officials would be more open to lending him his clearance letters at an earlier date.

[UPDATED]

Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post has composed a phenomenal piece on Nuggets Vice President of Basketball Operations, Masai Ujiri. It is an extensive account of his tenure in Denver, what it took to get where he is at today and some of the philosophies he has tried to instill in the process. This is as “must-read” as it gets if you’re a Nuggets fan being that this type of coverage of your team’s GM is rare to come by.

Meanwhile, SI.com’s Sam Amick, also scored an interview of his own recently, this time with former Nugget and current L.A. Clipper, Kenyon Martin. This is an extremely candid exchange with Martin going so far as to tell current Nuggets coach, George Karl, to “keep his mouth shut,” in regards to Carmelo Anthony. Furthermore, Martin goes on to explain something I’ve always firmly believed, which is, if the Nuggets were a better organization with a better coach, Anthony likely wouldn’t have left in the first place. This is another must-read for all Nuggets fans alike.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/02/18/chris-andersen-on-trading-block-wilson-chandler-to-return-early/feed/15Nuggets Newshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/19/nuggets-news-3/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/19/nuggets-news-3/#commentsMon, 19 Dec 2011 19:13:02 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2802With the start of the 2011-12 NBA season less than a week away and Afflalo still not re-signed, Nuggets fans everywhere are beginning to wonder what exactly is going on behind closed doors. Is Nuggets’ management asking for too little? Is Afflalo fielding offers from other teams? What kind of contract stipulations, if any, are being discussed? These are questions only a select few in the upper echelon of the Nuggets organization know the answer to, and unfortunately for us, they’re not telling. Until the day comes when these mysterious answers are revealed, there’s not much going on in Nuggets Nation.

I think, I hope, as I am preaching to the team is the Denver Nuggets is going to be out being a team. It has nothing to do about individuality and basically screw all the guys out there that think you gotta have a superstar to win a championship. I’m just not into the hype. I’m into some of the things we did when we went 18-7 and I can take anyone who wants to come into our film [room]. We can splice up the Oklahoma City game and for you and don’t put a scoreboard on it and you can tell me who won that series? It would be very difficult to chose if you take free throw misses out of the game and basically take the first 15 minutes of the game 2 out of the game. Everybody is in love with Oklahoma City. No one is in love with the Denver Nuggets. I guarantee you if you don’t put a scoreboard on the video you wouldn’t be able to pick who won the game. I’m excited because if Oklahoma City is the darlings of the NBA and we are not that far from them. I think Josh [Kroenke] and the organization has unity that the Nuggets haven’t had for 4 or 5 years. I think unity is felt by the players for the first time in two or three years.

Unfortunately for Karl, the scoreboard matters. In fact, it’s about the only thing in professional sports that matters. You can take people back to your lair and clip all the video you want to make it seem as though the Nuggets won that series, but the bottom line is we played horrible in the post-season last year for about the bazzilionth time in a row under your watch. And free throws are a huge part of the game, especially come playoff time! You can’t just take that out of the equation all together! That’s basically the equivalent of me taking a test, getting a D, then going back to the teacher and saying “If you just omit this question here, these essay questions there and the diagram part near then end, then I got an A!” Of course, Karl later goes on to praise the play of Ty Lawson and Andre Miller in training camp, which scares the collective crap out of Nuggets fans who despise the two-point guard lineup just as much as I do. Nevertheless it’s interesting hearing the coach chime in on perhaps the most lively debate in recent Nuggets’ memory.

About the only other newsworthy tidbit to report this morning is that Kenyon Martin might be released by his Chinese Basketball Association team, the Xinjiang Flying Tigers. Apparently the “Flying Tigers” aren’t off to the hottest start, therefore cutting its best player naturally would appear to be the remedy needed to right the ship. If Martin is released many believe it could open up the door for fellow Nuggets, J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler to be cut as well. If this is the case, it will be interesting to see what happens with Chandler. As has been discussed ad nauseam over the last six months, Smith and Martin are unrestricted free agents and therefore free to sign anywhere they please, although keep in mind, the Nuggets do retain their Bird Rights meaning they can re-sign in Denver for much more than they can on the free market. Chandler is restricted however, which gives the Nuggets the option to match any contract offer he receives from another team. The way I see it, trading Chandler is really the only option the Nuggets have. Yes, they can always keep him, but why do so when the Nuggets are already stacked at the small forward position? In addition, Chandler has by far the most trade value of any wing player on the Nuggets outside of Gallinari. Packaging him along with a few other players might get us that coveted first-round pick that every last Nugget fan on the face of the earth has been dreaming about lately. But remember, if we match an offer he receives from another team, he then can’t be traded for at least one year following that transaction. Because of this, a sign-and-trade seems to be the most likely scenario to play out.

Finally, Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post suggests the Nuggets use “Party Start-Party Stop” by The Big Shots as a fourth-quarter anthem this year when a Nuggets victory is seemingly in hand. If you recall, this was the same video I featured in a former Nugget News posted this past summer where Gallinari displays some God-awful dance moves to what can only be described as a God-awful song. To this request all I have to say is: No. Please no.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/19/nuggets-news-3/feed/37The other side of the coinhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/16/the-other-side-of-the-coin/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/16/the-other-side-of-the-coin/#commentsFri, 16 Dec 2011 20:42:58 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2797Yesterday my wonderful colleague Jeremy detailed the Nuggets 2011-12 season outlook in a post titled, How Good Can the Denver Nuggets Be?In it he expressed his concern over how this year’s team would play without a “chip” on its shoulder, without enough good defensive players in addition to how the Nuggets would be affected by losing Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler to the Chinese Basketball Association. In the end Jeremy stated, “For Nuggets fans who could not stomach the thought of rebuilding, you got your wish. They will be a playoff team for the foreseeable future, but I fear that is all they will be.” Though this may be true, I’m here to tell you why that may not be such a bad thing after all.

Long-tenured Nuggets fans need to stop living in the past. I’ve echoed this sentiment many times since my arrival here and Roundball Mining Co. I understand the history of this franchise and the years of ineptitude featuring horrible nightmares that became reality when players like Raef LaFrentz, Tony Battie, Nikoloz Tskitishvili were selected ahead of Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler, Carlos Boozer, Luis Scola, Antawn Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis and Tracy McGrady. But the thing that perplexes me is why, after all these years of botched draft picks, Nuggets fans still actually want to revisit this place of misery just for the chance of maybe, if you’re really lucky,landing a top pick in a historical draft class.

Have Nuggets fans forgotten how many years of pain and anguish they had to endure before thankfully landing Carmelo Anthony in 2003?

Prior to Melo’s arrival in the early part of the past decade, the Denver Nuggets hadn’t had a winning season in 10 years. Ten years!!! That was all supposed to be “rebuilding,” am I right? That was supposed to be the quick, “suck for a few years in order to land the next Tim Duncan then we’ll be poised to win a title” plan, correct? Well what happened? What took so long? More importantly, where were all of you when this “rebuilding” was going on? I’m sure each and every one of you rushed home from work weaving in and out of traffic so that you could catch the Nuggets losing by double-digits on a nightly basis. I know every year that ushered in another sub-30-win season brought countless, treasured moments of joy and happiness into your lives. I’m sure that, come November and during the holidays, you couldn’t wait to drop a couple hundred dollars on Nuggets merchandise that you could proudly wear out in public in honor of your favorite losing basketball team.

Get real.

Losing sucks. Nobody likes it, nobody aims for it in professional sports. In fact, if you do, I wouldn’t even call you a sports fan. I don’t care if you’re this year’s version of the Indianapolis Colts and you’ve got a chance to land what’s perceived to be the best quarterback since, ironically the one on your own roster, in Peyton Manning. If you’re hoping to lose, then you’re going against the very essence of what sports are about. If you want to lose, you should just pack up your stuff, move to Vegas and settle down for a life of monotonous slot-pulling, deserted casino-wondering, green clear-cup alcohol-drinking loneliness.

Me, I like to win. I’ve enjoyed this past seven years in Nuggets history and I don’t think I necessarily want to relinquish this glory simply because Carmelo Anthony went and got all “Mr. Big City” on us. No, I’m ready to continue winning. And you should be too. Because thankfully, for the first time in Denver Nuggets’ existence, we have a front office that can deliver us excellence year in and year out. And the very thought of tanking it, is a slap in their face.

Last summer when Masai Ujiri joined the Nuggets he walked into a living room with a geyser spouting through the roof. Most people would have panicked. They would have run to the phone, called the plumper and sat on their porch despondent and terrified of all the water damage. But Masai was, and still is, a different breed. When he walked into a jet stream of perilous force he took matters into his own hands. Of course, he knew at some point he’d have to call the plumber, but he immediately rushed to his tool kit, gathered up his necessary materials needed to stop the leak and got down to work reducing its potency. He couldn’t stop the flooding entirely and for a while things continued to get wet. But in the end he chose to do something about it and instead of having to “rebuild” an entire house because the damage was so bad, he was able to salvage most of his possessions and in the process somehow convinced insurance to give him the funds neccesary to remodel his entire living room.

That’s the type of guy Masai Ujiri is, and it’s an insult to him, his values and beliefs to expect him not to do his job and let Carmelo Anthony, the Creative Arts Agency goons and that geyser of his get the best of him. We should be thankful a million times over to have a general manager of his clout running this team, on our side, as we watch him pull one amazing maneuver after another. Now, after multiple different “fixes” Masai has again put us in a position to succeed, and most importantly, he did it when all the odds were against him, when there was virtually no sign of hope.

What Masai Ujiri has essentially done over the past calender year is erase countless seasons of futility we would have suffered through the “rebuilding” process and it baffles me how anybody could not be incredibly thankful for this shortcut. Instead of having to lose in order to get a top pick in the draft, Masai has allowed us to win and still retain this possibility. That is something only the very best general managers in sports are capable of doing. Because of his shrewd business complex, the Nuggets now have enough pieces to put together a trade for that “superstar” everyone seems so googly-eyed over.

But perhaps the one aspect of rebuilding people seem to consistently undervalue time and time again, is luck. Jeremy, of all people, knows this best as he put together an excellent piece not too long ago that expanded on the intricacies of fortune its omnipotent control over the NBA. It’s a single ping pong ball, knee injury or group of collegiate athletes that each year, more than anything, determines the success of a franchise. And while one lucky team perennially gets that coveted bounce, snap or crop, a dozen or so other teams pony up for yet another long year of “rebuilding” in hopes of being that one special team 365 days later.

This year it’s Anthony Davis. Oooohhh, Anthony Davis. Long, athletic, a near-7-footer, defensive-minded — he’s it. He’s what it’s all about, right? He’s what Nuggets fans who want to rebuild are salivating over, regardless of how miniscule our chances really are of landing him. But that’s alright because you guys are the Vegas types. Unfavorable odds are what you live for.

But boy do I have some news for you. I-I-I don’t know how to say this, but… that Anthony Davis guy… the one you want to dedicate years of frustration and failure for… he’s actually not what you think. You see, that’s kind of the problem, the whole antithesis of this entire “rebuilding” plan. He’s not the next Tim Duncan nor Hakeem Olajuwon. I mean, I hate to break your hearts and everything, but he’s actually more like the next Marcus Camby or Tyson Chandler. But hey! He’s still gonna be a member of the Denver Nuggets and primary cornerstone of the franchise forever right? Right!? RIGHT!?!?!

Well, we’re rebuilding, remember? So by now, Nene’s gone. Who’s to say what ever ended up with Afflalo. That guy is a winner and he doesn’t want to stick around for the rebuilding processes. OK, but at least we have Marcus Camby locked down for the foreseeable future. I mean, he’s not exactly the guy we all thought he would be but we’ll surely win a title with him down the road anyways. But… by the time he’s challenging for an All-Star spot who knows what will have happened to Ty and Danilo Gallinari!?! Those guys also like to win and I wouldn’t be surprised if they exercised their qualifying offer in order to become an unrestricted free agent and rid themselves of this losing mentality for good. Then where would be? Right back to square one?!? Rebuilding AGAIN?!? I guess people don’t really want to stick around during this whole rebuilding stint do they? Whether it be fans, players owners or whoever else. Because when it doesn’t work, when this dream scenario of intentionally losing to secure the next Kobe Bryant doesn’t actually work out the way you intended, it’s kind of a disaster. The type of disaster that can lose you a franchise forever…

Back to reality, and speaking of Kobe Bryant, did you know he was actually selected 13th overall instead of going top five? But that’s not even the real kicker. The funny thing is, on draft day, he didn’t want to go to a franchise with a losing culture so instead forced a trade to a different franchise with a history of winning, one that possessed assets that enabled it to move up in the draft and trade for him. Those two teams who exchanged that infamous draft-day deal were the Los Angeles Lakers and the Charlotte Hornets.

So I ask you Nuggets fans: Who do you want to be? Do you want to be the Charlotte Hornets, a team that’s no longer even in it’s original location and was forced to move because it chose to “rebuild” one year too many, or would rather be the Los Angeles Lakers, a team with stalactites made of championship banners and stones on their fingers carved out of excellence?

Look, we’re obviously not ever going to bet he Lakers, but you understand the parallel I’m making about building a winning culture and capitalizing on it by trading up in the draft if necessary to secure that next great shooting guard or power forward. The point is, losing intentionally for one year is the recipe for losing perpetually. Building a franchise entrenched with success only further increases your chances of continuing that success forever. Don’t blame Masai Ujiri for doing his job. Don’t hold the fact that he wants to succeed against him. Anthony Davis isn’t going to win a a championship for you, but Jeremy Lamb — currently projected to be a mid-lottery pick — definitely could if surrounded by a talented squad like the Nuggets. Contrary to popular belief, you don’t have to lose in order to win. And though everyone’s goal is to one day win a championship, realistically very few teams ever actually reach this pantheon of greatness. What sports are really about is consistency and maintaining a winning mentality, after year, after year. Sure, we’ll likely have a few seasons where we finish as a five-seed, but I promise you that if we continue pushing forward striving for perfection we’ll eventually maximize the return on our assets and reach that beloved goal of winning a championship that we all collectively dream about.

If you’re still not convinced, Vegas is calling.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/16/the-other-side-of-the-coin/feed/54Cap Holds and Youhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/11/cap-holds-and-you/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/11/cap-holds-and-you/#commentsSun, 11 Dec 2011 08:52:17 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2754For fans looking at sites like Hoops Hype that show the Denver Nuggets with nearly $30 million in cap space and wondering why on earth Denver is not making plays for some of the big names on the free agent market I have two words for you.

Cap hold.

Personally I had not factored the various cap holds oppressing the Nuggets until I noticed that John Hollinger, in his piece analyzing the free agent signings on Saturday, noted that Denver signed Luc Richard Mbah a Moute using their mid-level exception. The mid-level exception is for teams over the cap. How can Denver use it when they are so far under the salary cap? It is due to the immense power of the cap hold.

The Nuggets have several cap holds that even though Denver does not have salary committed, is accounting for more than all of their cap space. Nene, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler are technically still on Denver’s books until they sign with Denver, sign with someone else, or the Nuggets renounce them and the total number of these cap holds is quite astounding.

According to this article by Larry Coon the percentages used to determine cap holds have been altered in the new CBA. The highest level in the old CBA was 300% of a player’s previous year salary and now it is reportedly 250%. We will use a hybrid of that report along with the data in Mr. Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ.

If a team holds a player’s “Bird Rights”, he was paid more than the league average in the last year of his contract and he is not on his rookie contract, his cap hold is 150% of their previous salary. Hello Nene, Kenyon and J.R. Affording to this article by Mr. Coon the league has altered If a player is coming off the fourth year of his rookie contract whose salary is under the league average has a cap hold of 300% of his last year’s salary. However, as mentioned above, the 300% figure is replaced with 250%. I will assume since Wilson Chandler and Arron Afflalo would have fallen under the 300% cap hold calculation they will now have their previous year salary multiplied by 250%.

If you do the math, and I have, here are the cap holds for those five players:

Kenyon Martin

$24,818,181

Nene

$17,040,000

J.R. Smith

$10,136,777

Wilson Chandler

$5,326,205

Arron Afflalo

$4,898,943

Add all of that up and you get $62,220,106! Sum up their holds along with their committed salary the Nuggets have a team payroll for cap purposes of nearly $100 million dollars.

In order for the Nuggets to make an offer to someone like DeAndre Jordan starting at $10 million a year, as Golden State is reportedly ready to do, Denver would have to renounce Kenyon, Nene and either J.R. Smith, Chandler or Afflalo. Renouncing is not the worst thing in the world, but if they renounce Afflalo or Chandler, they would sacrifice their restricted status. Renouncing Nene would mean they would no longer have his bird rights to add an additional year with higher raises than other teams.

I understand fans are frustrated as they see free agent after free agent snatched up and other teams dominating the rumor mill. The Nuggets are demonstrating patience, which is a tremendous asset as has been made obvious over the years by teams who react and jump into bad contracts without thinking.

The front office is very much aware of what they are doing and there is no need to renounce anyone at this point.

I also realize there is frustration over the fact Afflalo has not been resigned as of yet. The front office is ensuring they do not get caught in the common sin of bidding against themselves and artificially driving up the price. I believe Afflalo will get a five year contract starting at just above the $5.0 million MLE starting salary. Unless someone offers Afflalo an offer sheet or he threatens to sign the one year qualifying offer all he can do is wait. Sure Denver could offer him a five year pact starting at $7 million just to get him in camp, but the expedience is not worth the extra cost. Call it cheap if you want, I believe it is wise.

In the past Nuggets management has spent whatever money they had at their disposal and they have lost flexibility because of it. This regime so far is looking to avoid the mistakes of the past.

As fun as rumors and splashy signings are, avoiding mistakes is the most important thing.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/11/cap-holds-and-you/feed/19Free Agency Digest: Day Onehttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/09/free-agency-digest-day-one/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/12/09/free-agency-digest-day-one/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2011 18:05:58 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2718Free Agency hasn’t started yet, but that has caused no shortage of drama in what is sure to be the craziest NBA offseason ever. By now you’ve all heard news of the Chris Paul deal that wasn’t. The league office will open for business at 12pm MST today and it will be very interesting to see how fast the frenzy will unfold one day after the infamous Veto. This post will be updated with any Nuggets developments and our thoughts on them, so check back throughout the day.

The big news out of Benjamin Hochman today is that the Nuggets are making a “strong push” for Milwaukee RFA Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Denver has also been linked to RFA’s Nick Young, Thaddeus Young, and DeAndre Jordan but those have been generally been sourced to questionable tweets mentioning the Nuggets and a half dozen or so other teams.

Keep in mind that under Masai and Josh, the Nuggets front office isn’t leaking out rumors in every direction which they have been known for in the past. About the only thing we know is that the Nuggets want badly to keep their own players and are unlikely to make any significant moves beyond trying to do that. Take all rumors with a grain of salt because I do not believe Masai has even hinted at what the Nuggets strategy might be when free agency opens.

Until then, enjoy the latest news and links as day one starts. Again, 12pm MST is when all official business starts happening sans any more vetos. Updates coming throughout the day as news comes in.

Follow Jeremy, Kalen, and Charlie on Twitter and we will let you know when we post an update. If you are an NBA fan and not on Twitter, you missed a front row seat to the circus yesterday. It costs you nothing but your free time and self respect to join!

Update (11:54 AM MST)Nets to offer Nene 4 years, $60-65 million
News is coming from Woj at Yahoo Sports that Billy King, New Jersey Nets GM, is expected to offer a 4 year contract to Nene today. At $65 million, that is an average of $16.25 million per year. The Nuggets have been confident they will retain Nene with a five year deal but it remains to be seen if Nene and his agent would be willing to forgo a higher annual salary for the added security of a fifth guaranteed year. It’s not clear to me how high the Nuggets are prepared to bid on Nene but this offer is close to the near-max contract he is said to be seeking.

Update (12:06 PM MST)

I will kick things off discussing local hero and recent Nugget Chauncey Billups. The New York Knickerbockers have come to an agreement to sign Tyson Chandler and as part of that deal they had to amnesty Chauncey Billups. The entire amnesty process has not been made public as of yet, but here is what we know. Players who are released via the amnesty provision are subject to an auction involving all teams under the salary cap. The team with the winning bid will then pay that player that salary for every remaining year of his contract. According to Larry Coon, any player who is acquired through the auction process cannot be traded for 30 days.

Here are two things to keep in mind at this point. First, most teams that are under the cap are not good. Second, Chauncey wants to play for a contender.

The question then becomes will a team under the cap take a shot at Chauncey, or will he clear the auction process without a bidder and become an unrestricted free agent? To answer that question, let’s take a look at who is under the cap and whether or not they will pursue Chauncey.

The Kings have Tyreke Evans and now Jimmer! While they need to spend a lot of cash, they are not in a position to fight for a playoff spot. You can make the veteran leadership argument, but to me you want those two on the court and Chauncey will take minutes from both. Add in young shooting guard Marcus Thornton and Sacramento does not look like a potential destination for Mr. Big Shot.

The Pacers are seeking to spend their money on some big men, i.e. Marc Gasol and Nene. I doubt they will want to tie up many dollars with a bid on Chauncey. Add in developing point guard Darren Collison and we get the same issue as in Sacramento. The veteran leadership would be nice, but they want Collison on the court.

Um, what can we say here? Chauncey would have made a lot of sense for the Hornets if that whole Chris Paul trade had gone through. Now, that front office must feel completely handcuffed. They could always place a bid and trade Chauncey if Paul remains in New Orleans for the rest of the season or have him in their pocket incase Paul is traded. Still, I find the Hornets front office unlikely to bid, unless that whole veto deal is reversed and soon.

This is interesting. I would actually love to see Chauncey on the Clippers. He would bring additional shooting alongside Mo Williams and would really help provide leadership. Chauncey with the Clippers would be great fun. Would they put in a bid, I would expect so, but only a minimal one.

I would hope the Raptors would pass, but who knows? They are crazy. With the forthcoming ownership change, I doubt they will spend any money. I would not want to see Billups in Toronto anyway. I doubt Chauncey wants to see himself there either.

Chauncey is an efficient player on offense, which will peak Daryl Morey’s interest no doubt, but what can the Rockets do? They will want to make sure the trade netting them Gasol is truly dead. Plus, they are pursuing Nene and will want to preserve that money. I think they pass, but would not be surprised if they bid.

It would be a nice story and if Detroit wants to make a push at the playoffs, they might try to add Chauncey. He could play in the backcourt with Stuckey, should he resign. I believe there is a decent chance the Pistons make a bid.

I do not see any other potential suitors unless Dan Gilbert wants to feel like he is sticking it to the Knicks by having them pay one of his players this season. Do not put it past him, he is the David Kahn of owners.

Might the Denver Nuggets attempt to bring back Chauncey, potentially against his wishes to play for a contender? Denver must spend a lot of money, they obviously want to compete. Plus if things do not work out, Nene leaves or the team is not a playoff caliber team, they can do good by Chauncey and trade him to a contender. If Denver places a solid bid on him, they can protect him from ending up in Toronto or Sacramento and then either Chauncey plays in Denver on a playoff team, or the Nuggets get something for him again to help him find a good home. Andre Miller could be flipped to a team who wants him rather easily thanks to his expiring deal, or George Karl could run a three point guard offense, which I bet he has had dreams about.

The odds on favorite in my mind is Denver. In the words of the Church Lady, “Well isn’t that special?”

– Jeremy

Update (2:27 PM MST)

With Nene soon to receive an official offer from the Nets as was noted above, word could come at any second that he is leaving. The Nuggets front office is forced to choose between offering a massive contract to a player who has had injury issues in the past and if offered a fifth year will be making roughly $18 million in the fifth season when he is 33 and completely turning the page from being a perennial playoff team to a rebuilding team with an unknown future.

Nuggets fans all know about Nene. He is a very talented player. He has lateral quickness, but lacks vertical explosiveness. He is big, but not huge. Of course, he has never been a dominant rebounder or shot blocker, but has elite perimeter skills for a center or power forward. Most frustratingly of all, even in his ninth season he continues to disappear during games. Most shockingly, for a player whose strength is scoring, who played on a fast paced team, he has never scored more than 28 points in a game. Nene plays hard and obviously cared when he is on the court, but he does not rebound nor does he block shots. He was 70th in the league in rebound rate last season.

For Denver to match, or exceed the offer from the Nets, they must be certain that Nene is a franchise center, or power forward if you like, and that he can be the building block of a contender.

Personally I do not see it. I believe Denver must do what they can to get something out of a sign and trade with New Jersey, even if it is just a future draft pick and move on. It is a terrible decision to have to make. Based on what the Nuggets do we will know if they want to be mediocre just to try to keep attendance up, or if they are committed to making the difficult decisions in order to truly have a chance at building a new foundation for a contending team.

– Jeremy

Update (2:40 MST)

Adrian Wojnarowski just revealed via twitter that Gary Forbes is close to accepting a three year deal with Toronto. The third year is a team option and no details on the dollar amount of the contract were released. Based on Woj’s wording it seems that despite Forbes being a restricted free agent he is in the final stages of becoming a Toronto Raptor.

This is the MO for a front office that last year made an offer to Linas Kleiza that Denver did not match. After dominating the Euroleague two seasons ago Kleiza failed to live up to expectations with the Raps and reverted to his mediocre NBA self. Gary Forbes was a rookie last season who showed promise with Denver, but he turns 27 in February and he is a developing player who may not turn out to be a contributor.

The Nuggets have money to spend, but anything beyond a very low risk contract for Forbes seems silly to me. I would have no problem having Gary prove he can settle into a nice role on this young term and earn a decent contract extension. The problem is giving an unproven player an extension now. It’s a difficult decision to make and it really depends on how much this offer is for before we can speculate on whether or not matching it would be wise.

– Charlie

Update 4:48 PM MST

This has little to do with what is happening today, but the trade deadline has been set at March 15, 2012. The Chinese Basketball Association regular season is set to end on February 15, 2012. At this point all three Nuggets affiliated players’ teams are likely to make the playoffs as they are lined up third through fifth in the 17 team league. If any or all of them are knocked out before March 15 they would be eligible for sign and trade deals giving the Nuggets additional flexibility. Of course, all three might be playing past the March 15 trade cutoff, but it will make the Chinese Basketball playoffs even more interesting than ever, which of course, would not be difficult.

– Jeremy

Update 5:13 PM MST

The Denver Nuggets have signed UTEP’s Julyan Stone to a contract, according to the El Paso Times. Stone is a 6-7 guard who has the ability to play multiple positions on the floor. He is both Conference USA and UTEP’s all-time leaders in assists, and is the only player in school history to be top 10 in both assists and rebounds. He is also an excellent defender, being named to Conference USA’s All-Defensive team. In UTEP’s only game in the NCAA tournament last year against Butler, Stone went for eight points, five rebounds, seven assists and two steals. According to Alex Kennedy, the deal is worth $1.1 million over two years.

Quick reaction: Stone was a popular name leading up to the draft last year, especially among Lakers Nation. I remember examining him briefly and being impressed with his distribution skills given how tall he is. There was buzz that he would go to the Lakers, but they instead went with another sleeper point guard in Andrew Goudelock. This acquisition is just further corroboration to the argument that Masai is a brilliant scout. I fully expect Stone to fit in perfectly with the Nuggets given his wide-ranging skill set and tenacity on the defensive side of the ball.