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If there is a positive side, it is that Irene will weaken significantly and very much by the time she gets to NH. The wicked winds should calm down a bit. They kind of turn into rainstorms once they get more than about 50 miles inland....in most cases.

People inland should still be watching/planning, though, because this is not always the case. Sometimes, hurricanes hold together better....say 100 miles. But, the coasts always get the brunt. After the immediate coast or barrier islands, the storm starts losing punch fairly quickly.

And, it helps that the waters are a bit cooler the farther north it makes it before landfall. While she may be a Cat4 now, she will only be a Cat2 by the time she gets to NJ even if she never makes it over land.

If this hurricaine gets near your garden, trellis and netting will not help. Just pray that it turns far east and stays out to sea!

All you can do is watch the weather reports, clean the yard of anything that can fly in the wind, and wait.

If Irene is definately coming close, and your garden plants are young, get some pots and transplant anything above ground to pots, move inside, then after the storm passes put back in the garden, if your dirt is still there! (the expensive Mel's mix could be put in garbage bags!)

At first it was coming in my backdoor and each report has moved it further east. but this am is the first report that said 'if it turns' It's scary for they don't know for sure.

I'm not really expecting much more than a lot of rain and maybe strong, but not hurricane force, winds here in NJ. But I'll definitely bring my container plants inside. I strengthened the trellis as much as I could yesterday. I guess maybe I could try harvesting a lot of the herbs and freezing them now, but I have a bad feeling I'm going to lose a lot of tomatoes before they ripen.

Wow! I hope everyone's gardens are alright. From the talk of bad it's going to be, it surprised me to see that I won't be seeing any of it. Usually we get some rain at least when a hurricane passes by the coast, but my weather forecast looks clear!

@moswell wrote:I'm not really expecting much more than a lot of rain and maybe strong, but not hurricane force, winds here in NJ. But I'll definitely bring my container plants inside. I strengthened the trellis as much as I could yesterday. I guess maybe I could try harvesting a lot of the herbs and freezing them now, but I have a bad feeling I'm going to lose a lot of tomatoes before they ripen.

I'm going to be taking a lot of fruit off the vines. They can fully ripen up on the porch.

Latest model runs have changed the track a bit. Irene hasn't turned north as early as originally thought. Not much of a change, but it dramatically affects where landfall will be and when.

Right now, it looks as though Irene will make it's first landfall very near Morhead City, NC, or Beaufort, NC. This is the southern most area of the Outer Banks if you want to look on a map.

If Irene is heading north, or just east of north, at that time, this landfall is significant enough to shred her up a bit and weaken the storm, sparing the mid-atlantic and northeast regions quite a bit. You will still get wind and rain, but nothing like I thought you were going to see just 24 hours ago.

The farther west Irene tracks before turning due north, the better off the mid-atlantic and northeast will be. However, the more Irene delays turning, the more we have to watch the Carolinas again.

Now, why the delay in turning north? Irene serves as a "blocker" to all the cold fronts and low pressure systems that usually just move across North America from west to east. Irene has created a traffic jam of sorts and the first cold front stretching from where the Ohio River meets the Mississippi River up through Lake Ontario is moving slower than expected. Irene will virtually bump up against the front and make her turn as both air masses start to collide. If the cold front speeds up, Irene turns north quicker. If the front stalls, Irene makes landfall further south than is predicted.

That's why there are such discrepencies in the forecasted track of Irene when we are talking a couple of days out. These "numbers" change every 12 hours and depend on the hurricane hunting aircraft as well as the satellites and computer models forecasting the speed of the cold front. If I may dork out a little deeper, what we are really dealing with is the perceived weight of the airmasses. Imagine the scale at which we are talking, though. We are talking about similar volumes of air (which we cannot see) that weigh so much that when they move their momentum carries force that collides into, and moves, other air masses.

Take into consideration two football players running at each other. One weighs 250 lbs. The other weighs 185 lbs. You would automatically think the heavier one wins, right? However, we have to also take into account the speed at which they move. Littler guys are usually faster. That equalizes things a bit. Now, imagine predicting the results of this collision using measuring devices dropped into the men's uniforms from the Goodyear Blimp and trying to predict the changes from there. This is essentially what the meteorologists are doing. If one of the football players slows down just a little bit (for example, he ran farther and is getting tired...among many factors we could never know that are affecting his current speed), all the equations need to be recalculated and a new forecast needs to be issued adjusting for the new information.

Now, do this on a MUCH larger scale in terms of square mileage. Maybe we can see how difficult this is, and why it's not an exact science...yet.

Thanks for letting me show my inner dork. Be safe, guys. A typical hurricane carries the energy of thousands of atomic bombs with it. I laugh when people actually think humankind can dramatically affect Mother Nature. We can do a little to her, but she can flick a finger and wipe us right off the planet whenever she chooses.

I wish everyone the best of luck with this storm... The early models for this storm initially predicted that she would be impacting us here in FL, some models even showed her making it into the Gulf and turning into the west coast of Florida... That was enough encouragement for me to go out and get plywood to prepare window coverings for our house... Thankfully for us they were wrong, and the good news is that I'm now better prepared to protect our house when we have future storms threatening us.... We bought this house in November, it was a spec house that the developer of our subdivision built to close out the remaining lots... We did some wheeling and dealing to get some upgrades before we moved in, and it didn't even dawn on me then to ask for hurricane shutters, I'm sure they could have done it for much cheaper than me and it would have been rolled into the final sale price.... I priced out some 'real' hurricane shutters, holy cow were they expensive!

Thanks BBG - I'm more of a winter weather geek myself, so I appreciate the tropical weather geek perspective.

I am a bit more concerned now than I was last night though. I forgot, after years of living in inland North Carolina, how much closer I am to the coast now. I grew up in central Delaware, which is protected for the most part from tropical storms by southern New Jersey, then I was living in Chapel Hill, which, with the occasional crappy exception, was spared hurricanes. But now I appear to be living about 30 miles from the coast line, so depending on the track the storm takes I guess I could get a decent amount of wind (I was always expecting the rain).

If winds take houses, they will take tarps. You may get lucky if you anchor things really well.....or the storm's winds dodge you.

If the eye passes to your east, you get less wind. It's always the "front-right quadrant" we watch for the strongest wind field. If moving north, that would be the northeast quadrant and closest to the eyewall. That part looks to stay out to sea until the hurricane runs into the New York - Rhode Island areas. But, again, things look to be significantly weaker (meaning not 115 mph) by then.

Here is the recent run of the major models that I look at.....not much different than what Camprn posted, though.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_model.html

The blue and yellow paths would be bad news for The Piedmont region and the Carolinas as a whole. The black, red, and white paths would be hell on wheels for the Outer Banks and possibly New England. By the time the blue or yellow paths make it to New England, the storm will be a remnant of itself and be carrying mostly rain with it and some isolated winds. Someone, though, will take Irene on the chin. Prayers with you all.

I listen to sports talk all day long now while out cutting grass because I'm sick of the same songs every hour. I remember a 6-hour drive my brother and I took to see our dad. It was the first time we didn't "have" to fly down there....because I could drive now. We heard Ice Ice Baby about 7 times that trip and I about swore off music radio then and there.

However, I can customize my own stuff on Pandora now. So, I'm blasting back to the stuff I liked that I rarely hear on the radio. Try never heard on the radio because I'm "too young." I swear I was born in the wrong generation.

Here's a few for you: The Hollies, James Taylor, Jimmy Buffet (something other than Margaritaville), The Eagles, Little River Band, The Doobies, Fogerty, Garth, Willie, and Waylon......oh, and Linda Rondstat (whom a few Eagles played backup for on her self-titled album). My tastes run far and wide, but lately I'm on a huge Fogerty/CCR kick.

But, Crimson and Clover? The version I heard first was Joan Jett and the Blackhearts (also my 2nd cassette tape.....the first was Thriller...lol). So, it's kind of a ruined song for me......

Oh, and in other.....errr original news...... It looks like the models are running tight now in the landfalling path of Irene. Looks as though the Outer Banks will face the brunt of this storm. I was just there two years ago and would hate to see that area if Irene unleashes full fury on them. Beautiful place!

That ought to make things a little better for the Northeast. But, not a lot. You all will likely get whopped pretty good, too. Stay vigilant and be prepared.

Here is one of my favorite pictures of my kids at Bodie Island Lighthouse on the Outer Banks, NC. (The middle one is Matthew, our Weatherman Extrordinare)

Well it is 2:30AM here in St.Augustine FL and the hot wind is taking its toll on my garden but not a drop of rain yet. I checked the weather channel and it said our current conditions were "light rain" well let me tell you it is the lightest rain I have ever seen . No relief from the record setting drought, but at least no land fall of Irene either. I hope those folks up north are prepared I hope it weakens before it hits land.

BBG and Boffer how about The strangest oddball 45 rpm record? think I remember some of it...

"there coming to take me away, haha. To the funny farm where life is beautiful all the time and I'll be happy to see those nice young men in their clean white coats and they're coming to take me away haha!!! "... omg the strange voice inflections, the weird marching boots beating, the maniacal laughing, what a unique and weird record that was! You flip over the record and it was the exact same recording, but recorded backwards. Here is some more....." I cleaned your house I cooked your food and this is how you pay me back for all those kind unselfish loving deeds, eh?" .... eewe its creepy!

BBG -- Tommy James and the Shondell's did the original recording of Crimson and Clover and Napolian the IX did Their coming to take me Away. Both were from the 60's I believe, the original recordings are on youtube.

@llama momma wrote:BBG -- Tommy James and the Shondell's did the original recording of Crimson and Clover and Napolian the IX did Their coming to take me Away. Both were from the 60's I believe, the original recordings are on youtube.

Sure. I've heard it. I just got polluted by Joan Jett. First impressions can be everything good and bad. As for 45's, the only one I ever owned....wait for it.........wait for it..........Pac-Man Fever. Yes, my parents tried their best to force me into the 80s as a child, but alas, I was born in THEIR generation....not mine. I'm a partial hippie and definitely a disco nut. Is it normal to like Chuck Berry, Mo-Town, Niel Diamond, AND the BeeGees and Earth, Wind and Fire all about the same? Somehow I don't think so, but I do.

As for Irene's impending landfall, the latest suggests a Cat3 hitting about the original prediction (mine, not theirs...lol) of Morhead City/Beaufort, NC. Looks like conditions will go steadily downhill Friday evening and really get ugly around midnight onward. Don't really know what happens after that right now. It all depends on how much land the eye rolls over. The more, the better for the The Northeast.

BBG, I knew that Don H and 1 or 2 others sang back up for her, the group was called The Stone Ponies. As for Fogerty/CCR my guess is you are still singing "Centerfield", I love that one, mostly because it has the crack of a WOODEN bat. Talk about getting old, 2 of the girls that helped me this summer with Kids College were singing the lyrics to Carrie Underwood's song, Next Time He Cheats, and they were messing up 1 line BIG TIME. I had to tell them she took a Louisville Slugger to both headlights, and they had NO idea what a Louisville Slugger was.

All of you in the path of this storm, keep us posted on how you are doing, you can share about your garden when it's all said and done, we just want to know YOU are okay.

This video is for all of you who are still listening to AM Radio, even if they don't sing anymore, and those of you who are stuck in a Time Warp (yes, I've seen The Rockie Horror Picture Show). Sit back and listen to the greatest DJ that ever lived. RIP Wolfman Jack.