1. Course Description

Reasoning and decision making are two of the most important activity humans
engage in. But we don’t always do so is the best manner. When we don’t,
the consequences can range from minor inconvenience to catastrophic loss. One
of the contexts in which humans have best developed their capacities to good
reasoning and decision making is scientific inquiry. Hence, that is where we
will turn for guidance. Some of the questions we will address are: (1) What
makes for a good piece of reasoning in science? (2) Can you ever be absolutely
certain of the truth or falsity of a scientific hypothesis? (3) How objective
is observation and how can humans avoid making mistakes in perception? (4) What
might we learn by systematic observation? (5) When can we learn from discovering
correlations and how can we avoid illusory correlations? (6) What does it take
to establish a causal relationship? (7) What are mechanisms and how do scientists
discover them?

This course will emphasize active engagement in the kinds of reasoning and
decision making which scientists us in testing hypotheses, especially through
on-line exercises and demonstrations. The goals of the course are for students
to understand the logical and statistical principles by which scientific claims
are created and evaluated and to develop a critical appreciation for the methods
by which knowledge is acquired in science. You should leave this course with
a better ability to distinguish good from poor reasoning and decision making.

2. Course Materials

All course materials are on the course website at http://inquiry.ucsd.edu.
Login directions and initial login codes are included in the course reader,
available at the UCSD bookstore. The modules found on the website include text,
animation, and interactive exercises, of which only the text is included in
the reader. Some modules have questions to answer at the end. All activity on
the site is recorded and logged, including answers to question sets attached
to the modules. Completion of the on-line exercises is a requirement of the
course.

3. Course Requirements

For each module, students are expected to complete the module and any questions
attached to it, before attending classes. Attendance in class and sections
is required. Sections will have regular quizzes and pop-quizzes may
occasionally be given in lecture. Final grades will be based 30% on the mid-term,
35% on the final exam, 20% on two-short (1- 2 pages) written assignments, 10%
for participation and activities (including quizzes) in lecture and sections,
and 5% for timely completion of the web-based exercises and questions.

4. Email List

There are email distribution lists for this course, one for each section. It
is required that you subscribe to the list for your discussions section. Do
it IMMEDIATELY. You can always unsubscribe later if you drop the course or change
sections. The purpose of the list is to allow the TAs and me to distribute information
regarding due dates for assignments, changes of schedule, etc. Some of this
information is crucial, and some of it may be distributed early on. To subscribe,
you simply need to send an email message to the address corresponding to your
section
Section A01 – sec01-subscribe@mechanism.ucsd.edu
Section A02 – sec02-subscribe@mechanism.ucsd.edu
Section A03 – sec03-subscribe@mechanism.ucsd.edu
Section A04 – sec04-subscribe@mechanism.ucsd.edu
After you send the subscribe request, you will receive a reply from sec0*-subscribe@mechamism.ucsd.edu
(where * is the number of your section) that will ask you to confirm your request.
Follow the directions in this message to confirm you subscription. If you later
want to remove yourself from this list, send email to sec0*-unsubscribe@mechanism.ucsd.edu.

Only the TAs and I have authorization to send mail to this list. There should
be no spam. If you receive mail from this list that is not from one of us, be
assured that I will as well and will take measures to block further abuse. (The
welcome message you receive suggests that you can send email to the list. Sorry,
but you cannot.)

5. Schedule of Classes and Web Assignments

Note: This schedule of reading assignments is tentative and subject to revision.
Items in italics are modules on the course website. You should complete these,
including any attached questions, before the assigned class (although subsequent
review is certainly encouraged).

January 4: Introduction: The Inquiry Website and Exemplary Scientific Reasoning
January 6: Elements of science: Introduction to Scientific Reasoning, Statements:
the atoms of reasoning; Justification and argument

January 11: Valid arguments: Some basic valid argument forms
January 13: Confirmation, falsification, and fallibility: Evidential relations;
The fallible character of human knowledge

January 18: Observation and categories: Observation and learning to see
January 20: Categorizing phenomena: Categories and taxonomy

January 25: Observational research: Observational research
January 27: Distributions and samples: Variables and measurement

March 1: Causation when experiments are not possible: When randomized experiments
are not possible
March 3: Mechanism and mechanistic explanation: Entities and activities
organized to produce a phenomenonSecond 1-2 page written assignment due

March 8: Organization and levels of organization: Levels of organization
within mechanisms; Describing and portraying mechanisms
March 10: Discovering and modeling mechanisms: Experimenting on mechanisms;
Denying phenomena when mechanisms cannot be conceived; Modeling strategies