Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Cubs - Dumped Jones, Monroe

Chicago Cubs - Traded OF Jacque Jones to the Detroit Tigers for IF Omar Infante, Traded OF Craig Monroe to the Twins for a player to be named later.

The Chicago Cubs are the clear winner here as they probably got the two most valuable players of the four, assuming that the player to be named is a sentient being that isn’t Nick Punto.

Yes, Craig Monroe and Jacque Jones are both usable as platoon players. Problem is, the whole purpose of platoon players is that it’s damn easy to find one. So what if Craig Monroe can hit lefty pitchers? So does any right-handed outfielder that can slug a has a bit of isolated power - it’s not a rare skill. Hell, I could also buy a used car for $2000, put a little flag on it, park it at the edge of the driveway, and it would be a perfectly serviceable mailbox. Or, I could act like someone with a room temperature IQ and buy an actual mailbox for $40.

Jones is a little better and played admirably in center, but he’s also another limited player, who just had a dramatic loss of power well past his 30th birthday and is moving to a tougher ballpark and a tougher general environment.

Monroe was a below-average hitter when he “starred” for the Tigers championship run a couple of years ago and he’s certainly worse than that after an excrement-laden 219/268/370 in 2007. Some players have young players’ skills, some players have old players’ skills, and some players have players in wheelchairs waiting for Sunday night bingo skills. Guess where Monroe is? Not to mention that there’s no way he gets less than $5 million in arbitration for this upcoming season and that the Twins have already spent a good chunk of the Hunter savings on absolutely nothing doesn’t bode well for the new regime. I’m not even a Twins fans and I’m furious - I can’t imagine how pissed off our old friend Aaron Gleeman will be once he sees Monroe hitting in the middle of the order.

Big thumbs up to Hendry. Omar Infante’s not a very valuable player, but he’s a good utility guy, he has a little pop, he can play short a little or fill in for a month at 2nd without killing you. Now Hendry likes to accumulate second basemen like that, but Infante’s probably the best player in the trade, the cheapest of the three named players, and Jim Hendry just saved $10 million minus Infante’s salary.

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Just saw this on MLB.com, so that appears to be exactly what Minnesota is planning:

What made the move somewhat surprising is that the Cubs had intended to non-tender Monroe next month. Monroe would have then become a free agent, allowing the Twins to negotiate with the outfielder at that time.

Instead, the Twins chose to give up a low-level prospect for a chance to boost their lineup now.

"[Monroe] may be a good fit for us, and there was no sense in waiting a month," Twins general manager Bill Smith said. "It gives us an opportunity to meet with his agent and talk about it by ourselves. I think that's a plus for us."

Dan, you're being unreasonable when it comes to Jones. I don't know if he ran over ZIPS' dog in a velomobile or what but that projection would be his worst professional season at the plate by a wide margin. He's a 33 year old career .280/.329/.455 hitter who can play an average-ish center field. He makes $5 million in 2008. That's a commodity with some value.

He's a 33 year old career .280/.329/.455 hitter who can play an average-ish center field. He makes $5 million in 2008. That's a commodity with some value.

He's a 33 year old who just had his worse professional season at 32. He's had a disturbing drop in power and he's moving to a tougher hitting environment. He had that bad season while being put in a role that should have been *more* conducive to him. That's the formula for a guy who will be lucky to see 34 as a baseball player.

The reports I've seen have the Cubs sending some money to the Tigers, though I haven't seen any which say how much. Also, it's not exactly like the Cubs "save" $5 M by getting rid of Monroe. They paid only a bit of his salary last year and were going to non-tender him this year (i.e. they owed him no guaranteed money). My guess is the Cubs have really saved only about $2 M here (relative to last year's payroll).

It was initially suprising to see Infante project as well as Jones, but then Dan reminded me that some chunk of that is hitting environments. Though I thought Wrigley was actually relatively tough on lefties -- at least I recall it suppresses LH HR. Don't remember if ZIPS park factor are RH/LH specific.

As to Monroe, especially with Murton around, it made no sense to pick him up in the first place and so it makes no sense to keep him.

Latest reports have the Cubs sending 2M along with Jacque who wad due 6.33M when including his signing bonus. That leaves the Cubs saving 2.5-2.75M and get a redundant player as a bonus.

This was a bad trade because I refuse to believe this was the best you could get for Jones. Jones rated out as a good defensive CF and has never slugged as low as he did last year(dead cat bounce at least) If Hendry would have been patient, I'm pretty sure he coulda peddled Jones as a cheap consolation prize to a team that whiffed on FA OFs. The fact that he's only signed for 1 year makes him attractive as well.

----"He's a 33 year old who just had his worse professional season at 32. He's had a disturbing drop in power and he's moving to a tougher hitting environment. He had that bad season while being put in a role that should have been *more* conducive to him. That's the formula for a guy who will be lucky to see 34 as a baseball player."

But his OBA/SLG for the last 3 seasons are, .335/.400, .334/.499, and .319/.438. An eyeball projection, including age, would be something like .325/.435. That's noticeably better than .321/.390. So, what is ZIPS picking up, and how valid is it? The stuff that Dan mentions is just testimonial stuff, and AFAIK has not been shown to be reliable.

Looking at his various PBP fielding ratings in CF, it looks like he is quite OK there (may not hold for the larger centerfields). Watching most Cubs games, he looked fine in CF to me, FWIW. So, even though Jones wants to play everyday, he would be a nice platoon CFer for teams that don't have a good regular there. As a full-time RF or LF, he is probably just a couple steps above replacement.

But his OBA/SLG for the last 3 seasons are, .335/.400, .334/.499, and .319/.438. An eyeball projection, including age, would be something like .325/.435. That's noticeably better than .321/.390. So, what is ZIPS picking up, and how valid is it? The stuff that Dan mentions is just testimonial stuff, and AFAIK has not been shown to be reliable.

The aging curve for players like Jones is extremely sharp - below-average players have horrific aging curves in their 30s.

I gotta agree with the Cubs fans... not so much because any of us aren't happy to see Jones departing, but I refuse to believe there wasn't anything more than the usual redundant utlity IF. I'd have preferred a C level prospect from a team with a bad farm system... hell, I'd have even considered a bad contract coming our way.

Dan may very well be right - perhaps Jones plunges off a cliff this season and starts thinking about spending summers with the family as soon as 2009. The thing is - I just do NOT buy that there aren't a few stupid GMs out there who would think otherwise. I know Littlefield is no longer employed, Beatagan's been replaced by MacFail... but last I checked, Ned Colleti was still employed. Ken Williams is no idiot, but what's the Sox plan B if Hunter doesn't pan out? For that matter - if the Twins are willing to basically acquire a player they might well non-tender, who's to say they might not be interested in getting Jones back?

I mean - is there some unwritten rule that says when you suspect you have crap to deal, you must make sure you don't get more than crap back? We live in a world of Vic Zambranos being dealt for Kazmirs, where Jason Marquis gets a 3 year deal worth 21 mil, and where Neifi Perez continues to be gainfully employed wearing a major league uniform (suspension aside).

My problem isn't that I'd rather have Jones than Infante - my problem is that I just do not believe there isn't something better out there.

...not to mention -- unless Hendry is desperate to clear salary room for a Tejeda run or something -- there wasn't really any reason to deal Jones. His contract isn't an albatross and I see no reason he wouldn't be fine as a (very expensive) 4th OF. He was a bad signing... especially when the team signing him has idea what "massive platoon split" means, much less how to work around it --- but the Cubs have already blown that call on both counts, so why just give him away for something you don't need?

There was no reason to just dump Jones (besides the potential "unless" above), especially after a season of Lou proving that he's not the type to keep running worthless players out there. If Jones plunges off a cliff - Lou'll sit him and I'd be willing bet an Infante-type deal or maybe just a bit less would still be available next June or July.

Well, Infante is a solid return on Jones. The problem is that the Cubs could have used a guy with that total value in just about any other shape than Infante provides. A right handed, SLG heavy second baseman is not filling any sort of need.

I'd lay some money (maybe not "a lot") on the under for 415 at bats, as I don't think the Tigers are idiots. I think they know they got themselves a fourth outfielder.

But a guy who just slugged .400 in Wrigley Field in the AAAA league, heading to the AL and Comerica Park? .390 is reasonably generous - he's getting a significant boost from his 2006 that I wonder if he doesn't deserve.

I guess I agree with Pops, I don't see the acquisition of Jacque Jones to be all that bad. I think he'll be an effective platoon partner with Marcus Thames, and $5 million really isn't that big a deal to a team like Detroit.

I think we can all agree that the Bill Smith Era is not off to a roaring start.

ZiPS found a ton of guys of the type - want a big humongous list? The players ZiPS feels have similar profile to Jones averaged less than 1000 remaining at-bats in their careers and three-quarters of them had seen their last 500 AB season by year two.

Ho yay. We're finally rid of Jacque Jones. I hated him from about the first week he was a Cub.

Yet he was actually a bargain for the Cubs. He was good (not great) in 2006 and below average in 2007. But at $5-6 million a year, he was low paid for a corner outfielder. He played a nudge better than his salary.

How much money are the Cubs giving Detroit in the deal anyway? (reads thread). $2 million, eh? In that case, despite all the anger at his signing lo those years ago, it wasn't that bad a deal at all for the squad.

The aging curve for players like Jones is extremely sharp - below-average players have horrific aging curves in their 30s.

This? Makes a lotta sense. Someone who was really good becomes only good when he loses that step. Someone bad becomes really bad, and doesn't have the skills to improve on his meager talent set.

The opposing 5 pitching staffs in the NL Cen had an average ERA+ of 94. The four teams Detroit faces had an average ERA+ of 104.25.

An eyeball projection, including age, would be something like .325/.435. That's noticeably better than .321/.390

Yeah. It is noticeably better cause one of the numbers begins with a 4. Big deal. Moving to New Tiger Stadium takes care of a big part of the 40 points of difference in slugging between Zips and your eyeball.

That and the fact that a bunch of people drop off a cliff in this age range, and I think that the Zips projection is perfectly reasonable. Easy enough to disagree with if you have the urge, but reasonable nonetheless.

Dan,
What do you think about Felix Pie playing and getting 500 PAs? Do you think he is ready? I keep hearing about Pie's upside, but we haven't seen it yet at the major league level. What do you have him projected to do?

I'm not nearly as high on Pie as most Cubs fans. I don't like his plate discipline, but recognize he's put up better minor league numbers than Patterson. If it's a roto question, I think he'll play enough to steal a few bases and if he doesn't hit, Lou has demonstrated a knack for not playing flailers. Of course, without Jones -- I don't see a plan B (I see Pagan as more of a plan C).

Wow, Monroe's comps are Rip Repulski, Wally Post. I remember both of them playing for the Phillies. Post had a reasonable career as a power hitter. My memory says around 250 career homers. Repulski not so much.

Don't take this the wrong way, but I think at this point, he's a poor man's Corey Patterson.

Excellent defense, which is going to be virtually all of his value in 2008. Fast, some pop. If the Cubs get viable offensive options at RF and SS, so they can afford to just plug Pie in the #8 hole and not worry about his offense, I think he'll be fine. He'll steal some bases, show some decent extra-base power and hopefully, like #33 suggests, figure out how to at least be non-embarassing against major-league pitching.

The risk is if the Cubs' 2008 plans rest on getting any kind of significant offensive contributions from Pie or if they try to plug him into the top of the order. I'm pretty hopeful, though, that Lou can resist the "fast centerfielder, let's lead him off" temptation.

Hell, I could also buy a used car for $2000, put a little flag on it, park it at the edge of the driveway, and it would be a perfectly serviceable mailbox. Or, I could act like someone with a room temperature IQ and buy an actual mailbox for $40.

figure out how to at least be non-embarassing against major-league pitching

Pie's brief major league stay showed a non-horrible walk rate, a very high K rate and a paltry .284 BABIP. I think Pie projects to be a high BABIP hitter (though with high Ks) because he would be one of the dozen or so fastest players in MLB and has shown good power in the minors. I'm very interested in his projections for this year.

I like Pie's game quite a bit. I think the lad has a clue and if given regular playing time will struggle at first but after a few months be a solid contributor on his way to having a chance to be a real plus player.

Of course, I am counting on the Cubs impeccable record of player development to derail that future in Chicago and send him elsewhere. But should monkeys fly out of Hendry's *ss signalling a new dawn in Wrigleyville then perhaps Cubs fans can enjoy seeing a homegrown player succeed in The Friendly Confines.

The Twins view of Craig Monroe is as a Rondell White replacement. Their current outfield is Cuddyer RF, Nobody CF, Kubel LF and Jason Tyner as the 5th outfielder. They were looking for a reasonably athletic RH batter who can play defense pretty well to pair with Kubel in the outfield and ensure Tyner doesn't bat against lefties anymore. I believe they'll ask him if he wants Rondell White's contract ($2.5M with a $2.5M vesting option) and if he doesn't they'll decline to offer arbitration. They don't owe the PTBNL if they don't keep him so it is a low risk move.

One thing about Monroe, he seems to see the ball pretty well in the Metrodome. I think he'll recognize that the best opportunity for him just fell in his lap, take the $2.5M a year deal and produce at the projected rate, albeit in the pessimistic PA, while providing their best defensive option in LF. The worst case scenario would be if he platoons all season in CF with Tyner. Ugh.

perhaps Cubs fans can enjoy seeing a homegrown player succeed in The Friendly Confines

With Geovany Soto in the mix it could be two position players in one year. Will wonders never cease?

I like Pie's game quite a bit. I think the lad has a clue and if given regular playing time will struggle at first but after a few months be a solid contributor on his way to having a chance to be a real plus player.

I think there will certainly be some MLB adjustment issues. The kid has been highly successful in the minors just swinging at everything. The Corey Patterson comparisons are myriad and obvious but I don't think people would be predicting doom and gloom if Patterson had been a Mariner flameout rather than a Cub disappointment. Corey also had issues with management and once declared he was going to ignore all hitting advice - that doesn't sound like someone willing to listen and learn.

I see no reason to ascribe personality issues to Pie or assume that he can't learn and improve faster than another former Cub.

But anyway, that makes twice in four months he's been traded for a player to be named later. You don't often see that in baseball, players who have some value becoming more useful in their absence than their presence because of their horrible guaranteed contracts. Tell me this isn't the NBA!

Are the Cubs still waiting for their PtBNL from the Pirates for Izturis? Is that a commodity like someone else's draft pick in the NBA/NHL that you can turn around and trade before knowing who the player is?

The Corey Patterson comps ignore the fact that Pie's 2 years younger than Corey was when he played at similar levels (and has outhit Patterson's performance for the most part).

It probably wasn't clear, but I was talking strictly about next season. I was comparing 2008 Pie to the Cubs' version of Corey Patterson (2003-04). I think <u>right now</u> Pie is similar to Patterson. Pie is also much younger than Patterson and Patterson hasn't really improved any, so I expect 28-year-old Pie to be a good bit better than 28-year-old Patterson. But 28-year-old Pie won't be playing for the 2008 Cubs (hopefully he'll be playing for the 2012 Cubs).

Seeing others' projections, though, I'm probably under-rating him. If he can translate what he did this year in Iowa to next year in Chicago, he's got a shot to be pretty good with his defense.

The reports I've seen have the Cubs sending some money to the Tigers, though I haven't seen any which say how much. Also, it's not exactly like the Cubs "save" $5 M by getting rid of Monroe. They paid only a bit of his salary last year and were going to non-tender him this year (i.e. they owed him no guaranteed money). My guess is the Cubs have really saved only about $2 M here (relative to last year's payroll).

I think that's about right.

I've seen that the Cubs sent $2M to the Tigers. Infante got $1.3M last year and will likely get a raise in arbitration to around $2M. As you mentioned, Monroe is a non-factor in payroll savings, since non-tendering him saves whatever money he might have been owed. So really, the Cubs are going to be paying $4M to have just Infante instead of paying $5M for just Jones, which is nowhere near $10M in savings.

ESPN 1000's Bruce Levine suggested yesterday that the Cubs were preparing an offer for Carl Crawford. However, team officials told Roger Mooney today that there's nothing brewing. Apparently the rumor was Rich Hill, Eric Patterson, and a prospect for Crawford. That doesn't seem sufficient anyway. There was even some talk of a three-way deal (I hadn't heard this) involving the Brewers and Yankees. Sounds like none of it is legit.

Time to trot out Nate Silver's view of Pie: link. (Not limited to BP subscribers.) The last entry on this page is also interesting.

In other words, PECOTA was over the moon for Pie last year (ranked him as the #8 prospect in MLB), and I can't imagine this past season did too much to dampen its enthusiasm. The guy needs to be left alone in CF in Wrigley this year, even if it takes a while for his prodigious skills to blossom into performance.

Don't think I need to tell Cubs fans here, but it's worth mentioning that Patterson '03-'04 was an above average player. Corey was even drawing walks at an above average rate in '04. I wonder what happened in '05.

I disagree with those who think the Cubs could have gotten more for Jones. They shopped him last offseason and, reportedly, some chunk of this season and (apparently) didn't receive any tempting offers. Now, he's cheaper (relatively) and has established he can play a decent CF still but he's also older and coming off a lousy offensive season. And I think everyone knows he's a platoon player.

You simply can't expect much for a player like that.

Now whether Infante was the right player to get -- that's a good bit harder to defend. Heck, given the Cubs sending along $2 M, it's not clear to me he's a better fit than Jones. But if Infante can play a decent SS, then he does make a nice insurance policy for Theriot/Cedeno -- though obviously at least one in the Theriot/Cedeno/Infante/Fontenot mix won't be on the roster. (OK, this is Hendry, they could all be on the roster and, heck, we could have DeRosa in RF too. :-) If he can't play a decent SS, then he's not of use.

Still, this trade is unlikely to affect the Cubs' 2008 chances one way or the other.

Apparently the rumor was Rich Hill, Eric Patterson, and a prospect for Crawford. That doesn't seem sufficient anyway.

I'm not sure, Crawford's OPS+ the last 4 years 105, 111, 113, 117, he'll be 26, I don't really see him getting much higher, he's a good player to be sure, but his K/BB isn't budging, his improvement has been largely in power. His offensive upside may be Garrett Anderson's prime with speed.

Getting Patterson will allow TB to move Upton to the OF (CF?)
Patterson will improve TB's wretched infield defense
Depending upon who the other prospect is this could be a very good deal for TB, if nothing else it woudl help them align their talent into a functional team

Baker cited several other reasons he thinks the Cubs will work into a slump and quickly get back under .500, including his inexperienced pitching staff returning to their usual form, his plan to rush injured stars Mark Prior and Kerry Wood back to action in time to inflame their injuries and cause enough arm damage to make them miss the entire season, and the fact that his son Darren is now older and larger than he was in the 2002 playoffs, and therefore capable of more effectively obstructing the basepaths while his team is trying to score.

According to mlbtraderumors.com (I know, I know), "WGN Radio's Dave Kaplan reported that the Cubs could complete a contract with second baseman Kaz Matsui this week. It'd be a multiyear deal; not sure if the Cubs would have to go three years on it."

This has to be some kind of joke, because the alternative is too depressing to contemplate.

According to mlbtraderumors.com (I know, I know), "WGN Radio's Dave Kaplan reported that the Cubs could complete a contract with second baseman Kaz Matsui this week. It'd be a multiyear deal; not sure if the Cubs would have to go three years on it."

This has to be some kind of joke, because the alternative is too depressing to contemplate.