New KCTS/KPLU/Washington Poll: Murray 49%, Rossi 45%

This morning KPLU reported on a new poll from KCTS/KPLU/Washington Poll in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and real estate opportunist Dino Rossi (R). The poll has results presented in a couple of ways.

Among registered voters Murray leads Rossi 49% to 45%. However when a likely voter screen is used, Murray leads Rossi 51% to 45%. The survey was done using live interviews and has a margin of error of 4.0%. Full details on the poll will be available around noon. I’ll do a more in-depth analysis of the poll (and possibly another poll) later today.

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Darryl–
This makes no sense on the face of it.
How can Murray be ahead by 4 among registered and 6 among likely?? It is counter to virtually every poll in the country. It’s not impossible, but certainly improbable.

How can Murray be ahead by 4 among registered and 6 among likely?? It is counter to virtually every poll in the country. It’s not impossible, but certainly improbable.

I’ve not seen the full set of questions or crosstabs for this poll, but the KPLU report said something about a reverse enthusiasm gap here in WA. I don’t know if they determined that by this particular result or by another battery of questions.

Perhaps the “reverse enthusiasm gap” is explained by Mr. Diddier’s not-so-gracious exit from the race?

Looks like they define ‘likely voters’ as those who voted in the last two elections. Since Dem enthusiasm was higher in ’06 and ’08, that might be skewing the likely voter tally for Murray higher than it is this year.

Another possibility, I suppose, would be if they over-sampled Seattle and other heavily Dem districts, but one would hope they corrected for that.

This one’s a squeaker. I don’t think either side has cause to boast. Piss their pants, on the other hand…….

I’ve not seen the full set of questions or crosstabs for this poll, but the KPLU report said something about a reverse enthusiasm gap here in WA. I don’t know if they determined that by this particular result or by another battery of questions.

Perhaps the “reverse enthusiasm gap” is explained by Mr. Diddier’s not-so-gracious exit from the race?

Possible, but I’ve seen zero evidence of it.
Re: Didier, he is left with a few hundred diehard supporters after taking his beating like a whiner. Didier made Pro-Life the main issue when it was clear he was going to lose…in a last ditch futile effort.
The pathetic thing is Didier would have been a front-runner against Cantwell…and has likely blown it. I personally know some of his biggest supporters…all are very disappointed in how he handled things and unlikely to support him in 2012. Didier has a lot of fence-mending to do. This happened in other areas and was inevitable as the Tea Party is quite a big tent. But the majority want smaller, less intrusive government and an immediate end to deficit spending. If R’s get in power and don’t respond, they will be voted out. You may disagree with their ideology Darryl, but you have to admire the rank-and-file for standing up for what they believe in and not being lapdogs for a Party.
If they were, Murkowski and Castle would be Party nominees. Rand Paul would be out…and dozens of House Candidates.
The media tries hard to marginalize and minimize the Tea Party Movement. But, they have effectively changed the debate…warts & all. And they are responsible for firing up a Conservative base and converting an extraordinary number of Independents and Conservative Dems.

The Washington Poll is not the first poll to show that support for Murray is higher among likely voters than among registered voters.

Washington never showed the huge enthusiasm gap for Democrats that pollsters claim to have found elsewhere–4 point gap compared to 20 point gap in some areas. Instead, pollsters found here what they do most years: Democrats get engaged a bit later in the cycle than do Republicans. What little gap there was had closed completely by late September.

As you may know, our Sec of State is predicting a higher voter turnout this year than in 2006. Early return of ballots is running significantly ahead of the 2006 rate in King, Pierce and Thurston counties and is matching the 2006 rate in Spokane, Snohomish and Kitsap. Regional commentators are saying that there is no discernable enthusiasm gap in Washington, Oregon or California though that certainly is not true in other parts of the country.

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