Rockets Q&A: A fan’s guide to the offseason

Share this:

For all the promise and potential, all the changes large and small, the Rockets’ season ended like so many others. A season that began with the much-celebrated addition of Dwight Howard was over after six playoff games, a day short of a year since last season ended after six playoff games.

The Rockets were an eighth seed then, not expected to advance. Howard & Co. were the fourth seed this season, having spent months anticipating a playoff run that never came. Instead, they returned from Portland filled with anguish and questions.

Based on interviews with players, coaches, front office staff and multiple individuals with knowledge of the Rockets’ thinking, we answer some of the more pressing questions as another Rockets postseason ends before the playoffs’ second round begins.

Q. How good is the team, anyway?

A. In many ways, teams are in the end what their record says they are. The Rockets lost in the first round. Even if it was a spectacular series played against a worthy and similar opponent, the Rockets lost largely because of shortcomings they never could overcome. But the first-round loss is so disappointing because there was reason to consider them better than a one-and-done postseason team.

They did win 54 regular-season games despite a season rife with injuries and lineup changes. Dwight Howard was everything they hoped for, and then some, stepping up big time in the playoffs. Though he struggled in the postseason, James Harden had an MVP-worthy regular season. The rest of the starting lineup – Chandler Parsons, Terrence Jones and Pat Beverley – made significant strides.

Still, the Rockets remained turnover-prone and shaky defensively, ranking ninth before late-season injuries to Howard and Beverley helped drop them to 12th. For a team that shoots so many 3s, they don’t shoot them particularly well. The bench is dreadfully short. As this series reminded, with the Rockets holding double-digit leads in five of six games, they don’t defend or take care of the ball consistently enough to make leads hold up.

That said, they’re better than they were a year ago. They might have even been capable of a playoff run had just a few plays bounced differently. But their season did not end because of bad luck. As with a year ago, they are a team with potential, albeit one lacking postseason success.

Q. Will Kevin McHale be back?

A. Yes. According to a person with knowledge of the Rockets’ decision-making, that much is certain. Everything already seemed to point that way. Multiple individuals with knowledge of the Rockets’ thinking said management believed he should have more than one injury-filled season with the current team. Owner Leslie Alexander showed every sign throughout the series that he believes in his coach, spending time with McHale after shootarounds and practices.

Emotions can change thinking, and this was a particularly emotional loss. Rockets players, however, have bought in. McHale is well-liked and respected. Given his strong personality and staff, the Rockets can pick up their option on a fourth season without concern that he would be weakened by being a lame duck.

Q. Do the Rockets need another free-agency overhaul?

A. They need help. In the postseason, they rarely played any of the free agents signed after Dwight Howard. The Rockets need role players, but their style – as with most teams – is to get the best player they can in free agency and fill the roster around the stars. Carmelo Anthony is the best player virtually certain to be a free agent. He is not a great fit, with a playing style similar to James Harden’s and at a position already manned by Chandler Parsons. But that much star power would greatly lessen the load on Harden and add another top-flight closer to a team that could not close out enough games in the postseason.

The Western Conference is loaded with star power forwards and point guards. If the Rockets could work a deal for either Kevin Love or Rajon Rondo the year before they are to become free agents, they could fill needs better. They have chased Chris Bosh before, and he could opt to become a free agent. Daryl Morey has tried to trade for Dirk Nowitzki, who will also be a free agent, though extremely unlikely to leave Dallas.

Either would be a great fit for a small window. Then again, if the Rockets are going to chase old favorites, there is always Kyle Lowry and Pau Gasol. If the Rockets are seeking strong defensive help, they could look to Luol Deng or Eric Bledsoe, or the less expensive Avery Bradley.

Q. Will the Rockets lose their own free agents?

A. Not if they don’t want to. The question is really about Chandler Parsons and his contract. The Rockets have until June 29 to pick up their option on his fourth season and keep him for another year for just $965,000, one of the best bargains in the NBA. It would cost them greatly, but the Rockets could choose to let Parsons become a restricted free agent to keep him with a long-term deal by matching any offer sheet he gets.

The Rockets likely would choose that course if they are confident they can sign a high-dollar free agent, then lock up Parsons by going over the cap. Parsons’ cap hold is small enough to make that work, but it could be tricky. They won’t know if they will need the cap room when they will have to make the decision. And they won’t know if they can lock up a free agent before another team signs Parsons to an offer sheet, starting the three-day clock to match.

Most top free agents are ready to sign by the end of the moratorium, so that might not be too risky, but if the Rockets cannot sign another star, they would be better off keeping Parsons on his rookie contract for another year, using this summer to improve their depth and positioning themselves for a trade for the missing piece they need.

Q. Have Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin played their last game with the Rockets?

A. Not necessarily. If the Rockets need cap room for a high-priced free agent, they are certain to move their highest-paid players after Dwight Howard and James Harden. Though they could not deal Asik in December, when Daryl Morey was certain he would be able to complete a trade, the Rockets sought real help in that deal. If they are to trade him and Lin, they would be doing it to make room for the help they need and would be seeking a team to take on the contracts, which count roughly $8.3 million against the cap.

There are some teams that would balk at paying the $15 million portion of their contracts, but if teams could get Asik or Lin without giving up much, Morey should be able to find a deal.

Q. Would the Rockets trade them anyway?

A. That is less likely but definitely an option. It’s less likely because if the Rockets are not using cap space on free-agent replacements, they would need talent back, making a deal much tougher to complete. Asik is certain to leave a year later. Lin might, though he seems far more comfortable with his role. But the Rockets’ decision-making will not be about seasons down the line. They will build for next season, and both have demonstrated their value to the team.

Q. Can James Harden take a team to a title?

A. He has shown that potential as a gifted scorer and strong pick-and-roll playmaker but is not there yet. His often-inattentive defense is as much an issue as ever, even if he is better on the ball, especially in the post, than his reputation suggests. His tendency to lose his man moving without the ball and give up uncontested layups can be demoralizing. To lead a team, he needs to give the most reliable, sustained effort on both ends, not just when he gears up when his man has the ball.

He also has struggled in his past three playoff series, including two as the Rockets’ go-to scorer. Still, his talent is obvious. He was phenomenal in the regular season, moving into the top echelon behind Kevin Durant and LeBron James. At just 24 years old, he is not yet in his prime. But he will be measured by the most demanding of standards and has to prove that he’s up to it.

Q. Is Dwight Howard still Magic-al?

A. Not quite, but he was outstanding. He then stepped it up in the playoffs on both ends of the floor. Howard was also a better leader than his reputation suggests, showing he can be his usual goofy self in the locker room, on the buses and on the planes, and still work and play as hard, and care as much, as anyone.

The Rockets also were impressed with his determination to improve in the low block, working with Hakeem Olajuwon and Carroll Dawson throughout the season. Dawson has said he has given only a taste of drills he plans and that Howard’s attitude as much as his aptitude should lead to more improvement with the ball.

Q. So, was this season a disappointment?

A. No question. The playoffs were, so the season was. The Rockets were outstanding when healthy through most of the first three months of 2014. Harden was especially sensational during that stretch. The Rockets fell off in the final weeks of the season when Beverley and Howard were out, but they were more like the healthy version of themselves than the team that crawled to the finish line.

They were built, however, for a postseason run, and it never happened. They were evenly matched with the Blazers, also a team built around two All-Stars. As crushing as Damian Lillard’s decisive 3-pointer was, the Rockets lost the first two games of the series at home, never pulled even in the series again and were left to pick up the pieces.