GOP figures to keep House edge

WASHINGTON In one Democratic ad, a grunting, helmet-wearing actor portraying GOP Rep. Jon Runyan of New Jersey, a former football lineman, physically blocks seniors from their Medicare benefits.

Another TV ad accuses Massachusetts House GOP hopeful Richard Tisei, an openly gay state senator, of being “too extreme” and links him to the Tea Party as it flashes pictures of Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich.

A Republican spot pounds Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C., for his state's high unemployment, showing a barren factory floor and blaming him for backing President Barack Obama's “wasteful” economic stimulus bill.

Democratic House challenger Christie Vilsack of Iowa is accused in an ad of backing Medicare cuts and Obama's health care overhaul. “She's fighting for Obama, not you,” the narrator says.

With the Nov. 6 election fast approaching, Democrats and Republicans dueling for House control are focusing on poll-tested themes in their attacks. Yet even as Republicans gauge what impact presidential nominee Mitt Romney's recent struggles might have on House races, the outlook seems essentially unchanged. Democrats may gain a few seats and perhaps do a bit better than was expected weeks ago, but they seem unlikely to grab the additional 25 seats needed to take over the chamber.

Of the 435 House districts, only about 60 are considered competitive and roughly 30 others seem potentially in play, evidence of the limited targets both parties have for pick-ups. Unlike the national voting trends that produced large House gains by Democrats in 2006 and 2008 and then by Republicans in 2010, analysts don't see either side's candidates enjoying a decisive political tailwind this time.

Republicans controlled a peak of 242 House seats in this Congress, their high-water mark since just after World War II.

Several longtime lawmakers are in tight races, including 26-year veteran Louise Slaughter, D-N.Y., and Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., serving in his 20th year. But two dozen of the toughest contests involve members of the House GOP freshman class of 2010, when Tea Party fervor helped sweep 87 of them into office.

One GOP advantage this year is money, lots of it.

Republican House candidates have raised about $100 million more than Democrats in this campaign – $373 million – according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP's campaign arm, has spent about $20 million since last year in independent expenditures for or against candidates, well above the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $14 million, the center says.

More money is certain to come from outside groups that can legally spend unlimited funds to help candidates.

American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, affiliated with GOP strategist Karl Rove, have spent more than $1 million on independent ads and other boosts for House GOP candidates in New York, Nevada and Arizona. Spokesman Nate Hodson said they plan to spend “tens of millions” more by Election Day. Other groups helping House Republicans include the Congressional Leadership Fund associated with House GOP leaders, the YG Action Fund founded by aides to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., and the Chamber of Commerce.

Democrats are getting assistance from the House Majority PAC connected to House Democratic leaders, the Service Employees International Union and the League of Conservation Voters. But they are expected to be significantly outspent by their GOP rivals.

The competition stretches from coast to coast.

In addition to California and New York battles, there are tight races in Illinois, Florida and North Carolina. Even solidly Democratic Massachusetts and ruby red Texas each has a competitive race. Rep. Francisco Canseco, R-Texas, is running in a redrawn district that is less friendly to Republicans, and Rep. John Tierney, D-Mass., faces a tough challenge from Tisei.

States have redrawn their congressional district lines to reflect the 2010 census, but analysts say neither party was advantaged overall.

Redistricting did produce 19 new seats in which no House veterans are running, plus five others where incumbents are squaring off: two in California and one each in Iowa, Louisiana and Ohio.

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