Red River Rising: a Top-Ten Fargo Flood in 4 of the Past 5 Years

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota surpassed major flood level on Sunday and continues to rise, with a peak expected Wednesday at the 9th highest flood level observed since 1897. On Friday, the President an emergency declaration for North Dakota because of the flooding, and millions of sandbags have been filled in anticipation of the huge flood. This year will be the fourth time in the past five years that Fargo has experienced a top-ten flood in recorded history. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for an astounding nineteen of the past twenty years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. The Army Corps of Engineers calculates that in the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 1-in-10 year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. That year, the Red River hit a record high-water mark of nearly 41 feet, or 23 feet above flood stage. Thousands of people had to leave home for higher ground, and about 100 homes were badly damaged or rendered unlivable. This year's flood will be somewhere between a 1-in-10 year to 1-in-50 year flood. Since a 1-in-10 year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year, the incidence of flooding along the Red River over the past twenty years has clearly been extraordinarily abnormal.

Figure 1. View of the Red River of the North at the Fargo gauge taken on April 24, 2013 (top) and April 29, 2013 (bottom.) The river rose from 17' on the 24th (flood stage is 18') to 31' on the 29th. Image credit: USGS.

Reasons for this year's flood: unfavorable weather conditionsThe USGS cites five weather factors that can act to increase flooding along the Red River. Four out of five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 9th wettest fall since 1895 during 2012.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had temperatures that hit 50°F on December 2 - 3, 2012, followed by a sudden plunge to below-freezing temperatures that began on December 7. Temperatures remained below freezing the rest of December, and this froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. Fargo received 68.4" of snow during the winter, which is well above the city's average of 50".

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Fargo has received 2.06" of precipitation so far this April, compared to the average of 1.23".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. Fargo got lucky here. High temperatures in Fargo have been above average only two days during April, on the 26th and 27th.

Figure 2. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. The river passed major flood stage on Sunday, and is headed for a crest near 35.5' (which is 17.5' above flood stage) on Wednesday. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: increased urbanizationUrbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Reasons for flooding: building more levees and flood defensesDefending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old flood wall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, a 2010 proposed improvement to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Figure 3. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota from 1901 - 2012. Three of the top five floods since 1901 have occurred since 2009. The projected crest for 2013 would be the seventh greatest flood since 1897. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second (cfs), and a 50-year flood to be 22,300 cfs. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had ten 10-year floods--one every two years, on average. Two of these floods (1997 and 2011) were greater than 1-in-50 year floods, and one (2009) was a 1-in-100 year flood. This year will be the fourth year out of the past five with a greater than 1-in-20 year flood. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for flooding: precipitation is increasingOver the past century, precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. This fits the pattern expected by climate change models, which predict that winter and spring precipitation will increase by another 15% by the year 2100 over the Red River of the North drainage basin. As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).

Figure 4. The colors on the map show annual total precipitation changes (percent) for 1991-2011 compared to the 1901-1960 average, and show wetter conditions in most areas (McRoberts and Nielsen-Gammon 2011). The bars on the graphs show average precipitation differences by decade for 1901-2011 (relative to the 1901-1960 average) for each region. The far right bar is for 2001-2011. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC/CICS-NC. Data from NOAA NCDC.) Note that precipitation over the Red River of the North drainage basin in Eastern North Dakota and Western Minnesota (outlined in red) has increased by about 15%--more than any other region of the country. Image credit: National Climate Assessment Draft, 2013.

Figure 5. Projected seasonal precipitation change for winter and spring (percent) for 2071-2099 (compared to1901-1960) as projected by the climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC climate change report, assuming we keep emitting heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at current rates. Teal indicates precipitation increases, and brown, decreases. Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are large and are consistently wetter or drier. In general, areas that are wet are expected to get wetter, and areas that are dry will get drier. White areas indicate confidence that the changes are small. The Red River Valley is expected to see a precipitation increase of at least 20%, which would lead to bigger and more frequent spring floods. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from CMIP5; analyzed by Michael Wehner, LBNL.) Image credit: Preliminary draft of the 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment report.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding problems: a $2 billion diversion canal?As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 1/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely (Figure 5)--will see higher and more frequent spring floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

A permanent fix for Fargo's flooding woes may lie in the construction of a 36-mile long canal that would steer flood waters around Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minnesota, according to an April 28, 2013 Associated Press article. The proposed canal could cost $2 billion and take ten years to complete, but has drawn strong opposition from farmers, homeowners and businesses who lie in the path of the proposed diversion channel. The http://www.redriverbasincommission.org/ has the latest long-term options on new flood control options for the Red River.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:3" to 6" of rain fell yesterday just west of Orlando with the seabreeze collision. Also had a severe storm come thru Downtown Orlando and blew out some of the windows in the high rise buildings. The Trade Winds hotel lost several windows yesterday.

Kori, you would agree that being gay doesnt matter right? Doesn't change anything about a person. Yet when you turned on the tv all you heard about Collins. If it doesnt matter then having hour specials would have the opposite affect have intended right? Singling him out instead of just him being another basketball player.

That is what is so stupid about the whole thing, the man says hes gay, who cares? I'm pretty darn sure he didn't come out with that because he wants attention, rather hes just sick of keeping it a secret. People need to get over themselves and move on...

3" to 6" of rain fell yesterday just west of Orlando with the seabreeze collision. Also had a severe storm come thru Downtown Orlando and blew out some of the windows in the high rise buildings. The Trade Winds hotel lost several windows yesterday.

Quoting LargoFl:..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.

yeah, maybe get a lot of it, too. will be interesting to see how it plays out.so far Miami is doing a better job with it than Oklahoma is...lol But that makes sense, doesn't it.

I got to say for the time of year it is ,1 month later and we would have at least an invest if not a depression in the gulf ,It looks like some outflow in the northwest side of the blob and the thing has held together for over 24 hours

Quoting Chicklit:they must be factoring in the tampa shield Largo.we're going to have some day time heating.Link wundermap

..you know I am going to be Very watchful today, if you follow the radar that huge blob is not moving due east, its growing and moving ENE..we in the tampa bay area just might get a little of this when it comes ashore..i'd like to see the radar around lunchtime,my guess is we do get some of it today.

THUNDERSTORMS: THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSUREAPPROACHING THE AREA WITH SEA BREEZES, MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVENORMAL, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TONUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITHTHE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND EAST COASTAREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FLOODINGPOTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMSWITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO ORWATERSPOUT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLOODING: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY ISFOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMSAND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASEDLIKELIHOOD OF STREET FLOODING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ENTERINGCARS OR MAY BE EVEN STRUCTURES IN AREAS HARDEST HIT AND WITH POORDRAINAGE.

WIND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPHWITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HAIL: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SMALL HAIL (DIME SIZE ORLESS) WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY PARTICULARLY DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO THEINTERACTION OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SEABREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WATERSPOUTS: AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAYPARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH TO MIAMIDADE COUNTIES AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ONFRIDAY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSUREREMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DEEPTROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SO WILLCONTINUE THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAYALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING.

...FLOODING: THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF STREET FLOODINGWITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER ENTERING CARS OR MAY BE EVEN STRUCTURES IN AREAS HARDEST HIT AND WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 66 degrees this morning with a high later of around 81. Chance of rain 50%. Yesterday the rain was a few drops here and there only. My garden would love a good drizzle to give it a good soaking. But we do get to take the kids out of recess.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Pancakes with syrup or fresh fruit, bacon and sausage, eggs and toast, yogurt and fresh squeezed orange juice. Enjoy

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICALJET STREAM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGHABOUT MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS LARGELYUNINTERRUPTED THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGESSTRONGLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE JET STREAMARCHES TO THE NORTH. FLEETING AREAS OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFTWILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION FOR THENEXT 6 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANDRELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE WESTERNATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE AREA.RIDGING REPLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGHPRESSURE MOVES WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AFTER TUESDAY. MIDLEVELS MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNINGON SATURDAY AND INCREASES AREA-WIDE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. MID LEVELMOISTURE IN THE GFS IS BEST ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CAUSELOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ORSOUTHWEST AND BRING UP MUCH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. OVERALLMOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW DOES NOT RETURNTO NORMAL UNTIL VERY LATE NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECONTROLLED BY LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HIGHPRESSURE IN THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRALATLANTIC WILL ENHANCE TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHTAND INCREASED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVINGINLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OFPUERTO RICO. NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDSALTHOUGH SAINT CROIX DID PRODUCE A STREAMER WITH A NARROW LINE OFSHOWERS MORE THAN 100 MILES LONG. SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERPUERTO RICO EXCEEDED ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH...MAINLY IN THEEASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT WITH QUITE THESAME INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE BECOME MOSTLY EASTERLYWHILE WINDS AT 850 MB HAVE BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST SO THE EXACTPATTERN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. SPECIFICALLY THIS COULD MEAN HEAVYSHOWERS OVER SAN JUAN AND MORE ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO THEEVENING AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES AND BETTER DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTIN THE EVENING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND EVERY DAY THIS WEEK UNTIL TUESDAYWITH ONLY ONE INTERRUPTION NOTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESETHUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL VENTILATED BY THE JET STREAM THATREMAINS CLOSE OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND AIDED BY THE FLEETINGAREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT OFTEN CORRESPOND TO THE BESTHEATING AT THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING WINDSTODAY WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS CHANGE ON SUBSEQUENT SOUNDINGS ANDINDEED AFTERNOON BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS REMAIN BELOW 120 AND GOAS LOW AS 14 SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGEST THATUPDRAFTS CAN BE STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. ALSO SOUNDINGS BECOMEMORE AND MORE SATURATED AS THEY GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY WHEN THEBEST MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES ARE NOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES THEY DID PEAK TO 2 INCHESOVER BAYAMON WHEN CONVECTION BEGAN PUSHING MOISTURE HIGHER INTOTHE ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LED TO MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVECELLS AND MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWSPRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 48 MM MOVING OVER SAINT CROIX THIS MORNINGAND POSSIBLY PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER TO CONFIRM THEINFLUX OF MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.

FORECASTS ARE CONTINUING TO SET THE AREA UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIODOF WET WEATHER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CONSIDERED...BUT CURRENTCONSENSUS IS THAT THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE URBAN AND SMALLSTREAM FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION SINCEINCREASING MOISTURE WILL ADD TO THE SATURATION OF SOILS AND RIVERRUN-OFF EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT A FLASHFLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WEEKEND AT THELATEST. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO POSTPONE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EACHDAY...AND 5 DAY TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 12 TO 16 INCHRANGE ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WITHAT LEAST 4 INCHES DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS. EMERGENCY AND WATER MANAGERS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN PRELIMINARY PREPARATIONS FOR RAINFALLAMOUNTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.MARINE...SEAS IN ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TOSUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOREINCLEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUESDAY WITH THEMAIN FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDSWILL BE LIGHTEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTFLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OFWHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAINHAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGINGSTRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVYRAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THEWEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTYSTRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGESTSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

They're actually quite marginal where that convection is now. However, there are no signs of lowering pressures in the area, although some of the global models, particularly the GFS, suggest that could happen over the next 12-24 hours.

Zane should be the first tropical cyclone in seven years to cross Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, likely reaching category three.

Tropical Cyclone Zane formed off the Queensland coast on Tuesday morning as it quickly developed and sped westwards. The cyclone will move west-northwest and should cross the coast between Orford Ness and Lockhart River late on Wednesday as a category two or three cyclone.

The last time a tropical cyclone crossed the Peninsula was in April 2006 when Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica crossed just south of Lockhart River as a category three system.

The primary difference between Zane and Monica is that Zane is moving quicker and should bring less rainfall. Winds from Zane will be quite similar to Monica with a cyclone warning issued from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation. Tropical Cyclone Zane brings the risk of gusts to 150km/h from Gape Grenville to Cape Sidmouth. When Monica hit the coast it brought gusts to approximately 150km/h with Lockhart River recording a gust of 109km/h and gaining over 300mm in the period of a few days. Due to the fast moving nature of Zane this cyclone should bring less rainfall, but flash flooding is still a risk for parts of far northern Queensland.

Zane will quickly dissipate on Thursday as the system crosses into the Gulf of Carpentaria. It will become a low rather than developing into a category five system like Monica did seven years prior. Wind and rain will ease, particularly for areas south of Cooktown. On Friday the tropics should only experience scattered showers and fresh southeasterly winds.