It started out this week as a safe haven. That idea seems to have been kicked to the curb as it is now looking to make another weekly low.

3 Month vs Overnight Spread (daily info)

Since January 2011 the spread has been steadily increasing. But it's not the 3 month libor increasing causing the spread to increase. It's the overnight libor that's been decreasing. DECREASING. Do the eurozone banks really trust each other? Or is it the fact that the ECB is backstopping?

220
comments:

Japanese equities finished strong. Good. At least I think, good. But the BOJ has made some interesting moves since Monday.

Buffett cancels his visit to Japan. Cesium stays in fat longer than other tissues I understand...(EASY, yes we all love Warren....)

Japan is not China. This is a country noted for quality control. Not things that don't work. Cameras, heavy equip,per dollar the best cars on the planet, and so forth. Things built in China are long lasting....not t-shirts or melamine...

ShareCloseLinkedinDiggMixxMySpacePermalink. Apart from an expected $35 billion in insurance claims from last week’s earthquake, the financial losses in Japan will probably fall most heavily on the Japanese government once it tallies the damage from the tsunami and the nuclear disaster.

Thousands of people desperate to escape Japan’s deepening nuclear crisis have inundated private jet companies with requests for evacuation flights, sending prices surging as much as a quarter.

Some multinational companies are pulling international staff out of Tokyo and surrounding areas after low-level radiation reached the metropolis on Tuesday.

Workers are fleeing for Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and as far afield as Australia and the United States as power outages and shortages of basic supplies compound the misery after Friday’s 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

“I got a request yesterday to fly 14 people from Tokyo to Hong Kong, 5 hour 5 minutes trip. They did not care about price. The charge inflated by 26 percent to more than $160,000,” said Jackie Wu, COO of Hong Kong Jet, a newly established private jet subsidiary of China’s HNA Group...."http://cryptogon.com/?p=21184

LSS: 'working things out', in Japan, are going to take longer than most, now, realize..

The French government said on Wednesday that Japan was losing control of the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power plant and urged its nationals in Tokyo to leave the country or head to southern Japan.

The government has asked national carrier Air France (AIRF.PA) to increase capacity on its flights between Tokyo and Paris to accommodate any additional demand from French citizens wanting to leave the Japanese capital.

Industry Minister Eric Besson said the situation at the Fukushima plant, some 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, appeared to be getting out of control.

“Let’s not beat about the bush. They have visibly lost the essential of control (of the situation). That is our analysis, in any case, it’s not what they are saying,” Besson told BFM television.

Environment Minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet branded the situation in Japan a “catastrophe” and said the latest information on Wednesday “does not lead to optimism”...."http://cryptogon.com/?p=21182

there's, also, a growing 'schism' between European, and American, coverage of these 'events'..

Finished energy: Prices for finished energy goods climbed 3.3 percent in February, the fifth straight monthly increase. Accounting for over forty percent of the February advance, prices for gasoline rose 3.7 percent. Also contributing to higher prices for finished energy goods were increases in the indexes for home heating oil and residential electric power. (See table 2.)

Finished foods: The index for finished consumer foods surged 3.9 percent in February, the largest increase since a 4.2-percent climb in November 1974. About seventy percent of the February rise can be traced to higher prices for fresh and dry vegetables, which jumped 48.7 percent. Advances in the indexes for meats and dairy products also were major factors in the increase in the finished consumer foods index.

Crude foods: The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs increased 6.7 percent in February.From November to February, prices for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs surged 12.1 percent, compared with an 8.9-percent rise from August to November. Nearly thirty percent of the February monthly advance can be traced to a 9.8-percent jump in the grains index.

(AP:NEW YORK) Shares of Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. fell in pre-market trading on Wednesday after the teen clothing retailer reported a loss for the fourth quarter and issued a weak first-quarter outlook.

Shares fell 32 cents, or 7.4 percent, to $3.99 in electronic trading ahead of the opening. The stock has traded between $2.92 and $6.84 over the past year.

PacSun has been struggling as other teen retailers like H&M and Forever 21 gain market share. It has cut prices and introduced products more quickly to compete.

But the turnaround has not produced solid results yet. Late Tuesday, the company, based in Anaheim, Calif., reported a fourth-quarter loss as revenue fell. It also forecast a loss for the first quarter.

"There is little visibility on the turnaround yet, and we continue to remain concerned over mounting losses, significant cash burn, and the inherent difficulties of a product shift," said Janney Capital Markets analyst Adrienne Tennant in a note to investors. She rates the company "Neutral."...http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68977066747280

- Initiate QE - QE18 programs to continue to have the "broad daylight" capacity to print more debt money, and accumulate more PHYSICAL...

In the end, when they have enough (of the PHYSICAL), they'll cover all the paper shorts (which will sent the value of the PHYSICAL parabolic), and they'll be the largest holders by then... They'll have all the LAND as well...

So the day that it comes to END THE FED - END THE FED, guess who's going to be holding all the hotels, title deeds, and money on the Monopoly board?

volatility curbing, that's funny. a 3% move shuts down the stock for 60 seconds if it's priced over $50....would seem to me GOOG and AAPL will have trading halted several times over the course of this year then, hopefully during that minute people get their wits about them and buy.....efficient markets after all.

anyway, reading the first few para's there, it seems to me they are still trying to figure out how to stop a "flash crash" but I seem to recall us being told they already had systems in place to deal with that outcome....not that it could ever happen again, of course.

The Japan situation is so very interesting, yes they had a big rally, yes they also had dropped about 20% in the three days prior.

I'm wondering what kind of impact liquidity players have in that market locally over the next few weeks, liquidity player meaning there is no reason to sell other than people need money.

I'm also in that camp that would think this is far from being all sorted out, after all, even prior to the quake they were in very bad shape.

I'm also in that camp that would think this is far from being all sorted out, after all, even prior to the quake they were in very bad shape.

This about sums it up...

"If you've ever stuck your hand in a spinning garbage disposal while smoking arsenic through steel wool, and injecting yourself with Drano in the jugular using a syringe stolen from a STD crack whore, this is nothing to worry about..."

By Peter Wise in LisbonPublished: March 16 2011 12:55 | Last updated: March 16 2011 12:55Portugal sold €1bn in short-term government debt on Wednesday, but had to pay a higher interest rate after Moody’s downgraded its credit rating amid fears that the country will be forced to seek an international bail-out.

The yield on the one-year Treasury bills rose to 4.33 per cent, up from 4.05 per cent for an equivalent auction two weeks ago and 3.99 per cent a month earlier. However, it remained below a record 5.28 per cent yield for a similar sale in December.

1. From where I sit, stock likely has little upside when it hits $18 or above according to the charts, there is serious resistance there while there is also heavy support not to much lower.

2. Stock does pay a very nice dividend that should be able to be sustained if rates are to stay low, lets assume that continues through year end 2011.

so, I'm wondering about selling some covered calls on this. The major probem of course is that dividend which puts your option at some pretty serious risk.

I haven't really looked at option prices in detail yet, anyway....any initial thoughts? Seemed that stock was held by several people here....

Selling calls limits your potential upside in a stock, but I don't think NLY has much upside, but that dividend risk could blow the strategy up, I've only ever really done a lot of covered calls on stocks that don't pay divvies.

I'm still around just not nearly as often and not for so long. I always check Andy's charts. Life has got in the way. A little girl, job, other responsibilities, sports to watch. Trading is really simple these days. A simple trend algorithm to stay on the right side and Neely's trading advice and forecasts. Takes a lot of the thinking out of it for me which has been certainly increased success.

I hope everyone else is doing well. Any lurkers would be wise to listen to these people's comments. Chatting with you all over 2 years taught me more than you'll ever know. Thanks.

Well, for a time I think we'll be treated to stagflation. But I think the global debtliner, the Titanic II, has started to sink. Portugal will be bailed out, and Europe probably can't even put on a brave face for that one. People who can are leaving Japan and Tokyo, and Japan is vital to the engineered and finished goods global trade. It is a "just in time" world now, you know...

No, this makes a big difference. States and local governments reining in spending...the world thing is weakening...

peep have no Idea how much is being, actively, Stolen from them..Worse, many of those that have a 'vague Suspicion' are doing, next to, nothing to 'Hedge their Exposure'

One notable individual who vowed to shut down the Federal Reserve System was President John F. Kennedy. On June 4, 1963, he signed Executive Order 11110, which legally abolished it. On November 22, 1963 he was assassinated...

Silver Certificates are a type of representative money printed from 1878 to 1964 in the United States as part of its circulation of paper currency.[1] They were produced in response to silver agitation by citizens who were angered by the Fourth Coinage Act, which had effectively placed the United States on a gold standard. The certificates were initially redeemable in the same face value of silver dollar coins, and later in raw silver bullion. Since 1968 they have been redeemable only in Federal Reserve Notes and are thus obsolete, but are still valid legal tender.

In 1928, the United States Treasury decided to reduce the size of its currency in order to speed up transactions, and also to cut costs. By this time, the Federal Reserve had taken over much of the currency market, and the prices of gold and silver had risen greatly. For Series 1928, only $1 Silver Certificates were produced. Fives and tens of this time were mainly Federal Reserve Notes, which were backed by and redeemable in gold. All this would change, however, with the beginning of the Great Depression in October 1929. The United States was plunged into an economic disaster of profound proportions. Many citizens blamed the fluctuating price of gold, which directly affected the U.S. dollar because it was pegged to the value of gold.

"Oooh, let me check the GPS. Looks like we'll be at the grocery in 30 minutes, based on our present rate of speed of 2 mph."

You all remember that computer game Oregon Trail? I remember that and Number Munchers from back when I was in 2nd or 3rd grade and computers were getting huge. They rode oxen in that game, up until you needed the raft to cross the river, which usually broke half way over.

what I don't remember from that game was being able to send a text on your iPad back to the cabin that Bertha had dysentery.

President-elect Franklin Roosevelt felt the same way. He persuaded Congress to recall all gold coins, gold bullion, and gold certificates, which circulated alongside Silver Certificates. This prompted Congress to quietly place the U.S. on the silver standard. On May 12, 1933, the Agricultural Adjustment Act was passed, which included a clause allowing for the pumping of silver into the market to replace the gold. A new Series 1933 $10 Silver Certificate was printed and released, but not many were released into circulation.

In 1934, a law was passed in Congress that changed the obligation on Silver Certificates so as to denote the current location of the silver. This law also allowed the government to exchange silver bullion for the certificates, not just silver dollars. The 1933, along with its sister, the 1933A, $10 silvers, as well as the 1928 $1 silvers were phased out and replaced with certificates of Series 1934. The small-size $5 Silver Certificate was introduced with this series, as well.

In 1963 President John F. Kennedy issued Executive Order 11110, authorizing the Department of Treasury to issue additional Silver Certificates for any silver held by the U.S. Government in excess of that not already backing issued certificates...(he was promptly assassinated)...

End of the Silver Certificates Series 1957 A $1 Silver CertificateCertificates circulated, mainly in the $1 denomination, widely throughout the United States in the years following 1934. When the '34s wore out, they were replaced with a new, more modern-looking Series 1953 (1935 for the $1 silvers; see below), with the same face changes as the Series 1950 Federal Reserve Notes had experienced. However, the Silver Certificates began to disappear from circulation during the 1940s and 1950s. The amount of Silver Certificates in circulation depended directly upon the amount of silver bullion in the Treasury vaults. As people redeemed the certificates for bullion or silver dollars, the notes were shredded, because the notes had lost their backing and could not be recirculated unless there was more silver being produced. The price of silver was also rising. In 1960, it was nearing $1.29, which meant that silver dollars were worth more than $1. This meant that people would receive their silver dollars and melt them down for the bullion, thereby reducing the amount of silver in circulation, which was already falling.

In March 1964, Secretary of the Treasury C. Douglas Dillon halted redemption of Silver Certificates for Silver Dollars.

CV, your quote about gold/silver/(wealth) confiscation reminds me of a George Carlin bit: "You have no 'rights'. If they can be taken away at the moment you need them most, then they're not 'rights'. They're 'privileges'."

good stuff man, I'm trying to work on a few mechanical systems right now myself with small amounts of money to see how they work as I learn some new things.

and yeah....Glenn Neely is the man, have you noticed how orthodox counters right now are all convinced we are in wave 4 or worse yet, have labeled a series of 1's and 2's off the 2/18 high? the four I can at least live with....the 1's and 2's....no way.

For those of you too bored or distracted... this part (of above), should make one think...

"The price of silver was also rising. In 1960, it was nearing $1.29, which meant that silver dollars were worth more than $1. This meant that people would receive their silver dollars and melt them down for the bullion, thereby reducing the amount of silver in circulation, which was already falling..."

Hell - that was only a 29% premium... Roughly the same as a US nickle is at todays spot (and that's with copper well off its February high)...

http://coinflation.com/

But that's not even the point... The "point" is, people will HOARDE things if and when they perceive their "dollars"/"notes" aren't worth anything...

And what will be the END RESULT of the Japan nuclear disaster???

More EXCUSES to PRINT more debt... More "notes" (less value per note - less reason to hold on to them)...

I contacted Kid D about the financial sense article linked early, Kid D for those that don't read his blog is far more knowledgeable than me about how the books work and instie trades are hedged and how to read them off the books, I would guess he knows more than all of us here about that stuff.

needless to say, he has quite a different take on what is going on than Rob Kirby.

I suppose we'll all believe what we like, I couldn't verify the information in that article by myself because I didn't know how, so I went to someone that does.

I'm not trying to start a big debate here, but I'm constantly reminded by this crew to "see the other side" so I'm merely offering up what I've learned from all of you, which is that it is often smart to see the other side:

his words:

"I think it's an asinine interpretation of what I've been saying all along - that these guys are NOT really short gold/silver etc... they sell futures to hedge their other exposures. Of course, Kirby tries to twist it into something devious. IT'S THE POINT!"

My husband would like to spend a summer following part of Lewis & Clark's path...that text message could give me nightmares. 3rd grader has been reading these Diary of America books...lots of stories of wagon trains going west into disaster.

I think it's an asinine interpretation of what I've been saying all along - that these guys are NOT really short gold/silver etc... they sell futures to hedge their other exposures. Of course, Kirby tries to twist it into something devious. IT'S THE POINT

I don't know know why you decided to single that out because that's NOT the center of my theory (paper shorting/manipulation by prop desks in the federal reserve system)... IMO - that MAY or MAY NOT be part of it, it's unverifiable, so who the hell knows...

All I AM saying is...

It's plausible to think that it is in the best interests of a CENTRAL BANK cartel (or collection of cartels thereof)... In the "wake" of a collapse of FAITH in a fiat based monetary/currency system... To use ANY & ALL MEANS NECESSARY to assure the survival of the cartel in a post-apocalyptic scenario (whether it be DEFLATION or HYPERINFLATION)...

Ostensibly (this is just MY OPINION), it might be EASIER for them to survive HYPERINFLATION than DEFLATION... Why? Because they could create excuse after excuse to print all the money they ever needed to buy & procure physical assets...

They could give a rats ass about private DEFAULTS on debt (whether it be "quadrillions" or "blabillions")...

- Half of that DEBT already is backed by an asset (homes & land)- The "monthly nut" for survival comes from the government who can borrow at will (then tax it out of the populace)- The final link in the chain is to SEQUESTER all the physical assets (gold, silver, food, materials)

If it isn't stopped, they'll move on to the ENERGY YOU CONSUME, THE WATER YOU DRINK, and the AIR YOU BREATHE...

I sent the article to KD, that was his response back to me, I'm not singling anything out, simply sharing what he told me. I'm bringing something else to the table than what was said in that article. If there is a major problem with me doing this I can stop.

As I have said to you repeatedly you can think whatever you like, I'm approaching how I forecast differently than you, I think it's ok that we can both present our views here right?

It's the 'STRUCTURE' of a story like that that's pertinent... And I (like karen), didn't even read it...

Well then, how can I have an OPINION on it?

I don't... What I DO have an opinion on is what I detailed in the comments (11:05)... Details are irrelevant how it occurs...

I've read "theories" that the Chinese are the ones who are PAPER SHORTING PM's to hold down the price to accumulate the physical too...

I don't even bother linking those stories on this blog because I risk being called a "crackball"...

Frankly - I don't know the mechanisms... But all I ever say is WWCVD "What would CV do?"...

Well - If I was CV (the evil central banker), I'd exactly as I described in (11:05)...

Know what I WOULDN'T do?

I wouldn't just sit there and let the FRANCHIZE of my fiat money system get DESTROYED by "letting the markets" work themselves out in the form of TD Ameritrade account holders "firing off the trade" with their pattern recognition technology...

cool then, and to be very clear, that was the only thing he said to me what I posted up there, just figured I'd share, KD is a very smart guy when it comes to that stuff, I've learned an awful lot from him over the past year or so.

Ben -- I've had options exercised early on bank stocks w/ dividends. You need to really watch the price close to ex div dates b/c if the option goes ITM someone will try to claim the dividend. If you're selling the octobers, you'll have at least 2 quarters to watch for.

that's what I'm a little worried about, while I don't believe $18 will be breached, this consolidation has brought it up there above $18, 8 times in the last year trailing period.

If AT's charts are correct and that count is on, our double top or Z wave should peak well before October and that's why I was looking at those, NLY as we've seen in this correction isn't so correlated with the overall market, but I also doubt if the general market is starting a large decent into his (C) wave that the stock is going above $18 either.

I'll play around more with it....but I'm thinking you can squeeze more income out of that stock rather than just riding the common.

I'm not saying you are a fool, what I'm saying is that KD knows about things that you and I don't know about, you don't have to agree with him for that reason, but I don't want to be too proud to listen to him....

I'm not IMPLYING that you think I'm a fool... Simply using a metaphor to color a distinction...

Let me put it another way...

If I'm not 'erroneous' in my interpretation, YOU use "SOCIOECONOMICS" & EWI as somewhat of a framework to your methods (be careful: I didn't QUANTIFY that, I just said "somewhat", I realize you have other tools & dimensions)...

Me?

I use "common sense" in the same way (as framework)... Now... That said... Who can QUALIFY or QUANTIFY what 'common sense' is... It's subjective right?

All I can say is that IN MY LIFE, I've come to TRUST my common sense... Furthermore, I tend to spend a lot of my private time thinking about macro issues and working out scenarios (not watching DWTS)... That does not qualify me as an expert by any means, only says that I've contributed a lot of thinking man hours to developing a unified theory... Whether it becomes REAL or not is for nature to decide...

"...most small businesses that sell a product or service are getting deluged with offers to partner with one or more of the coupon sites. Those offers are producing a lot of confusion and anxiety for businesses. To deal or not to deal, that is the question."

Corporate interests might have played a big part in the design and maintenance of Japan’s nuclear complex at Fukushima, according to Russian nuclear accident expert Iouli Andreev, who knows a thing or two from Chernobyl’s example—and who called the International Atomic Energy Agency “a fake organization.” —KA

-------------------------------------Let's see if the russians can say it here.

"When you charge some customers full price and others half price, you make some happy and others unhappy. Worst of all, you make the wrong customers happy! The regulars are unhappy because they feel they overpaid; the discount customers are happy -- but they're probably not coming back because they're used to shopping at half price. When you decide to do a daily deal, you are training your existing customers to wait for the next coupon. Does that sound like a recipe for success?"

anyone use Groupon? Always see the ad but have never bothered to click it

karen said... leverage needs to come out of this market.. especially in the current world environment.. JBTFDers have got to be reducing risk, don't you think? institutions seem to be from the data and the charts.

The White House today proposed sweeping revisions to U.S. copyright law, including making “illegal streaming” of audio or video a federal felony and allowing FBI agents to wiretap suspected infringers.http://cryptogon.com/?p=21197

Of course, THAT headline was from March 9th... The day BEFORE the HAARP antenna triggered the 9.0 quake/tsunami that started a nuclear meltdown and gabe the BOJ cover to PRINT another couple of hundred trillion yen...

So the New Madrid & San Andreas fault lines are safe until gasoline hits $4, or your Eggo waffle breakfast costs $5...

Meanwhile, JBTFD... Or wait, not just yet... Wait until the spot silver price works its way down to the $30-$32 area and we get to stuff a couple hundred tons in our trousers...

A computer system that forecasts the spread of radioactivity has not been working due to malfunctioning monitoring posts around a troubled nuclear power plant in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says it does not know when the system will be back in operation.

The system, called SPEEDI, predicts how radioactive substances will spread in case of radiation leakage from nuclear power plants, based on measurements taken at various locations, prevailing winds and other weather conditions.

SPEEDI data are intended to be used to draw up evacuation plans for residents around power plants in case of accidents.

The system is monitored at government offices, including the industry ministry and the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency in Tokyo.

Friday's earthquake caused power outages around the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The agency says it cannot expect the SPEEDI system to function fully, since many monitoring posts are not operating due to power outages.

"As we reported in What Your Grocery Store Will Look Like In An Emergency, at the onset of a far-from-equilibrium event, the essentials go first. In Japan, food and especially water have become scarce.

The panic is spreading, and residents in the US, fearing a fallout cloud crossing the pacific and affecting Western states, are stocking up as well."

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."