PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

I don’t believe this poll. I don’t believe Obama will get over 45% in November. Wisconsin elected a Republican govenor twice in a year and the second time by a wider margin. These crap polls are probably making Wisconsin voters increase that margin for the presidential election.

A lot of dems are in for some heartbreak come November 7th from believing all these ‘polls’. You better believe I will be the guy standing there smiling holding a sign that says “WE HAD AN ELECTION, YOU LOST”.

Living in Wisconsin I can tell you though that there actually are people here who will vote for Obama and Scott Walker.

This camp is made up of people who are taxpayers and like the fact Walker lowered their taxes and cut our noveau riche public teachers and their fat pensions down to size.

However this same voter also doesn’t trust the boss, the man, rich guys, etc. They won’t vote Romney in a national election. So I don’t think we will get 1 for 1 correlation Walker for Romney voting here.

That said, I think Romney has a chance for a 10,000 vote type squeaker win here.

I played with the EC map at 270towin.com and I think OH will be the Ground Zero of the 2012 election. If Romney wins it, he is going to be President for sure. Nothing else matters. 306 R 232 D. If Obama wins OH, he can win by a close margin, 271 to 267.

We’ll have to see how it goes with the vice presidential debate and the remaining presidential debates that are going to be held this month before we can say for sure which man is going to win this fall.

Being that they elected a Republican senator and governor in 2010 and just recently defeated the recall effort of Gov. Walker, I can't picture that state voting to re-elect Obama. Especially since they have one of their own on the GOP ticket.

I go shooting in southeast WI, and getting there involves driving down a number of secondary roads through farm country and smaller towns...during the Walker recall it was interesting to watch the yard sign situation evolve.

As I’ve gone through that area since the summer, I’ve seen more and more Romney signs appear...and as of last week I haven’t seen a single Obama sign.

19
posted on 10/06/2012 6:18:32 PM PDT
by M1903A1
("We shed all that is good and virtuous for that which is shoddy and sleazy... and call it progress")

it is a PPP Poll Democratic Pollster! Democratic pollster Dean Debnam founded the company. They do polling for left leaning entities!!! They are usually pretty far off the mark also they did a automated phone poll no body talks to you. Are you a Democrat press 1 Rep press 2... vary suspect!!!

I’m thinking FL and VA are ground zero.. Technically, we could win without Florida, but that would mean carrying al the other battleground states. If we carry FL but not VA, we could still win by carrying any one of CO, IA and WI, in addition to NC, OH, NV and NH.

So, I’m thinking FL is back to ground zero; but, because of the closeness and the size of the following four states, I think we will see the candidates devoting a lot of time, advertising and field operatives in FL, OH and VA.

As of right now, with continued good luck among the dwindling undecideds, and with some of the Johnson supporters shifting to Romney, I’m thinking we’ll carrying all of the battlegrounds plus NM and PA.

The problem we have here is that we passed a really solid voter ID law last year. A liberal judge in Madison struck it down and the lib judges have it bottled up in the appeals court. Our one vote conservative majority supreme court has refused to take up the case until the appeals court has had a chance to rule on it. So voter ID will not be in place for the election next month,

We do have our share of voter fraud here. The city of Milwaukee is loaded with invalid or outdated voter registrations. I think the Dem candidate can pick up a good chunk of fraud votes here.

The bigger issue we have in Wisconsin is the fact Obama is black. There is a good chance that a larger part of the black community comes out for Obama whereas they didn’t have interest in other non Presidential elections over the last two years.

For whatever reasons, the black community in Milwaukee really didn’t get energized by the Scott Walker elections. The real state money here goes to the largely white teachers and public employees and those were the motivated voters in our Walker battles.

This is a 5 point swing. States like NH, IA and NV are now in play or in Romney’s camp. Ohio is the ground zero swing state, but with Romney looking like he’s up a few points overall, Obama is the one with a lot of exposed truf to defend, including WI.

This race has turned a corner. It was looking shaky in September but no longer.

I’m glad to see all these state polls coming out. I was growing worried that our side may become a bit dejected, which would affect volunteer and GOTV efforts. I rather suspected, though, that Romney had been holding back until the debates as those are his strong suit. His strategy, if I’m reading it properly, is to peak at the right time - not too early.

I just don’t think my home state of NM will go red. Favorite son, Gary Johnson, is running strong here and has the largest audience local radio show host in his corner. Plus, NM keeps getting bluer with all of the Californicators moving here.

MI is next on my list, right after PA. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if MI went red and PA stayed blue, or neither or both. But, I would be surprised, in the absence of a major development, Romney were to lose. Please bear in mind I’m assuming (A) a turnout something between 2004 and 2008, (B) a two-to-one break of the remaining undecideds, and (C) a shift of half of the support currently being won by Johnson to Romney (which mainly affects CO, NM and NV).

Your point about black voters in WI (and elsewhere) is right on target. Voter participation really jumped in 2008, due mainly to two demographics: (1) blacks and (2) young adults. I am thinking the blacks will be back, although maybe in not as large a number, and that the young adults will return to their former level of voter participation. This is why I think the 2008 model is too optimistic for the Dems (b/c the youth won’t turn-out) and the 2004 model is too optimistic for the Reps (b/c/ the blacks will turn-out).

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