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What The Bookies Missed – NFL Week 2 Underdogs On The Move To Spot

The Jets upsetting the Bills at home kicks off the theme of this column, underdogs that could punch above their weight class and defy the NFL odds in week 2. Let’s get cracking.

Week 1 OverviewAside from Monday’s double-header that served up a couple of blowouts, the rest of the week was close. Eleven of the fourteen games (including Thursday’s much anticipated Super Bowl rematch) were decided by one score, which included six games that were decided by two points or less. How week 2 unfolds is anybody’s guess, but Thursday’s NFC East clash erupted into an unexpected shootout between the Jets and Bills – unexpected if the NFL odds were any indication –and with the former coming through The Jets defied the NFL odds in the 37-31 triumph, coming through with the SU win and cover and the game itself cracked the low 40-point total at closing doors. Indeed, the Jets accounted for most of the total on their own merit.

In the spirit of underdogs defying the NFL odds, we look at the NFL betting card for the second week of the NFL and sift through the matchups in search of underdogs that could punch above their perceived weight class. In other words, bets against the NFL odds that could prove profitable for your NFL picks.

Several underdogs on the move practically leap off the page. Those are matchups where the public have been heavy on the favourites to the point of betting up the NFL lines considerably.

Titans +7 vs. Lions The Detroit Lions are coming off an eyebrow-raising win over the Indianapolis Colts in week 1, a 39-35 shootout that went against the NFL odds. Promptly, the Lions entered week 2 as the home favourites around -5 but are now trading as high as -6 with most top-rated sportsbooks and, even, as high as -7 with 5Dimes. According to SBR consensus betting polls, Lions have 53% of the tickets wagered and 50% of the money.

The Lions got away with a weak Colts defense and a secondary that puts up as much resistance as a cupcake. The Lions won’t always get such matchups. And the Titans, who came away losers in week 1 to the Vikings, look to be severely undervalued as a consequence of their 0-1 SU and ATS account. Defensively, the Titans gave Shaun Hill headaches and held the Vikings offense to four field goals and meagre yards. In fact, had the Titans not turned over the ball so much, which resulted in touchdowns, we might be talking differently about this matchup. In any event, one game isn't always defining. This could be a good opportunity to fade the public and shade the Titans.

Falcons +5.5 vs. RaidersAnother side that benefited from a weak defense were the Oakland Raiders in week 1. Granted the Raiders showed grit and gumption to come-from-behind and take the 35-34 win at the Superdome, particularly the two-point conversion that is being touted as a ballsy move by del Rio. However, to be fair, the Saints secondary parted like the Red Sea in the fourth quarter, crumbling under the pressure and it only made the Raiders’ comeback that much easier. Nevertheless, the Raiders opened around -4 and have been bet up to -5.5 at some sportsbooks already. Others sportsbooks are moving between -4 and -4.5 or adjusting the juice.

The Falcons are a more disciplined side than the Saints are – even than the Raiders actually. They look to be severely undervalued as the +5.5 road underdogs, a consequence of their opening home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it would seem. Keep in mind, the Falcons were the fifth least penalised team in 2015. On the defensive side of the ball they are much sounder than both the Raiders and Saints proved to be in week 1. In total defense, Falcons rank 19th while the Saints are 28th and the Raiders 29th. It remains to be seen whether the NFL betting line will jump up by late doors – almost 40% of betting is done on game day according to Vegas Insiders – or if it will whittle down. That all depends on the direction of late public betting and sharp betting. For our money, the Falcons as the +5.5 underdogs look to tempting to ignore.