German Voters in Saxony May Weaken Merkel’s Power in East

Even as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union shows few signs of weakness, the vote in Saxony could extend the shakeup of German politics by ending the last state coalition with the CDU’s traditional ally, the Free Democratic Party. Photographer: Jochen Zick/Pool/Getty Images

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- German voters in the eastern state
of Saxony go to the polls today as the dominance of Chancellor
Angela Merkel’s party in the region may be weakened by the entry
of an anti-euro party into the state assembly.

In the first state election since Merkel led her Christian
Democratic Union to her third national victory last year, polls
suggest the CDU, which has governed Saxony since German
reunification in 1990, will extend its stewardship.

Traditional alliances could be tested by the Alternative
for Germany, which has been an irritant to Merkel as she faces
criticism from conservatives that she’s straying from core CDU
values. Polls show the AfD, as the party is known in German,
poised to enter the assembly. Projections based on exit polls
are due at 6 p.m. Berlin time as polling stations close.

“We have to expect that they’ll get in,” Manfred
Guellner, who heads Berlin-based polling company Forsa, said in
an interview. “Still, the CDU is by far the dominant party in
Saxony. The only question is who they’ll form a coalition
with.”

Even as Merkel’s CDU shows few signs of weakness, the vote
in Saxony could extend the shakeup of German politics by ending
the last state coalition with the CDU’s traditional ally, the
Free Democratic Party. The pro-business FDP dropped out of
Germany’s national parliament last September after failing to
clear the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats.

Saxony is the first of three eastern regions comprising
half of the area’s voters to hold elections in a two-week span.
The state of 4 million people is the richest of the six eastern
states except Berlin. Brandenburg, which surrounds Berlin, and
Thuringia vote on Sept. 14.

CDU Leads

The CDU is at 40.5 percent before the Saxony vote,
mirroring its national level, according to an Aug. 28 poll for
broadcaster ZDF. The AfD had 7 percent, with 3 percent for the
FDP.

The Social Democrats, who govern as junior partner to
Merkel nationally in a so-called grand coalition, had 15 percent
support, the poll showed, near its lowest level in all German
states. The Greens would enter the assembly with 5.5 percent of
the vote.

The election could also see a reappearance of the anti-immigrant National Democratic Party of Germany, which gained a
foothold in the state vote five years ago and could do so again.
The ZDF poll showed the NPD at 5 percent.

The AfD has sought support partly by toning down its push
against the euro and highlighting issues such as education,
families and fighting crime. Guellner said the party is also
siphoning voters who previously supported the NPD by using
rhetoric against foreigners.

Options Open

Saxony’s CDU premier, Stanislaw Tillich, has refused to
rule out coalition talks with any other party if the FDP fails
to re-enter parliament.

If the result matches the polls, the most likely outcome
would be a CDU-SPD grand coalition in the state or an alliance
between Merkel’s party and the Greens, similar to a coalition
set up last year in the state of Hesse, Guellner said.

Merkel’s party may fare less well in next month’s two
elections in the formerly communist east.

Polls suggest the CDU may cede power in Thuringia to the
first state coalition headed by the anti-capitalist Left Party.
In Brandenburg, Merkel’s party trails the SPD.