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I think we're a 9-12 rated QB in the league to be considered a legit contender with the current team makeup and everyone just having an "average-base" year.

I don't know if Ponder can bring us that this year, but to me, this would be his last shot. If it did not work out, I would be willing to move #1+#1 (potentially) to get someone we loved to join this squad minus potentially Jared Allen (another team/retire) & extending Cook/Everson._________________

Even if Ponder eventually fails, and we have to move on, the team will be better for having been developed in this way, and whoever comes in next will do better for it.

MN may just be back in the same spot it has been in for years, too good to land a top pick, often having to rely on veteran stop gaps or drafting lackluster prospects.

Different Owner, GM, and Coach. This franchise has been taken in a new direction. If they want someone they get him.

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement._________________

Even if Ponder eventually fails, and we have to move on, the team will be better for having been developed in this way, and whoever comes in next will do better for it.

MN may just be back in the same spot it has been in for years, too good to land a top pick, often having to rely on veteran stop gaps or drafting lackluster prospects.

Different Owner, GM, and Coach. This franchise has been taken in a new direction. If they want someone they get him.

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.

I'll go one further than that, I think it's very unlikely the Vikings move on from Ponder next year. He's still under contract for the 2014 season, no reason to move on just yet.

Some might not like that approach, but I can't see Spielman going ''all-in'' to draft a QB in the top 10. If this team is even half-way decent in 2013, which I think it will be, the Vikings will be waaay out of range of any 'certain' QB prospect.

Realistically, the only way the Vikings are getting a new QB in the next few years are if a. Ponder regresses next season, b. if a talented QB falls to the late 1st, and if he's BPA by a big margin._________________

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.

The Vikings are in a position to replace Ponder, if need be, now that nearly every roster spot for a starter has been filled with quality yutes.

I see remaining after 2013 the following possible upgrades, other than QB:

LG, MLB, DE, S: if things don't work out in 2013 as Spielman hopes.

RB#2, WR#5, TE#3: aren't needs that require a high draft pick. Could sign these role players in FA.

So, only DE or MLB may need an upgrade in 2014 which requires using top draft picks. Hopefully, both won't be needed in 2014.

So, if Ponder fails in 2013, Minnesota will probably have enough draft picks to trade up for a top prospect, or could trade a 2015 pick to move up.

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.

I'll go one further than that, I think it's very unlikely the Vikings move on from Ponder next year. He's still under contract for the 2014 season, no reason to move on just yet.

Some might not like that approach, but I can't see Spielman going ''all-in'' to draft a QB in the top 10. If this team is even half-way decent in 2013, which I think it will be, the Vikings will be waaay out of range of any 'certain' QB prospect.

Realistically, the only way the Vikings are getting a new QB in the next few years are if a. Ponder regresses next season, b. if a talented QB falls to the late 1st, and if he's BPA by a big margin.

As I said in my post immediately above ^, there may be so few needs left after the rebuilding that has occurred over the last three years to enable the Vikings to make a major move up for a top QB prospect. Why not trade multiple picks when you have so few needs to fill? (e.g. probably only 2 of MLB, DE, and QB.)

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.

The Vikings are in a position to replace Ponder, if need be, now that nearly every roster spot for a starter has been filled with quality yutes.

I see remaining after 2013 the following possible upgrades, other than QB:

LG, MLB, DE, S: if things don't work out in 2013 as Spielman hopes.

RB#2, WR#5, TE#3: aren't needs that require a high draft pick. Could sign these role players in FA.

So, only DE or MLB may need an upgrade in 2014 which requires using top draft picks. Hopefully, both won't be needed in 2014.

So, if Ponder fails in 2013, Minnesota will probably have enough draft picks to trade up for a top prospect, or could trade a 2015 pick to move up.

Youre missing a big hole at DT. Once Floyd takes over for Williams, they still need a one technique DT, a position that wasnt addressed this year. Though this year, Floyd and Williams will probably play one technique at some point during the season, but neither are long-term options at the position._________________

We wouldn't necessarily have to trade up to get a good QB. Most of the QBs taken at the top of the draft have been underwhelming. Luck and RG3 are the only QB prospects in the last few years who would've been worth trading up for.

9 Super Bowl wins among 19 starters, by Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Flacco and Brees. Those 5 would be widely considered better than most or all of the QBs taken in the top 10. 8 of the 17 who started last year went to the playoffs in 2012.

So where's the evidence that we have to trade up to find a QB to win the Super Bowl? Seems to me that the plan should be to build the best overall team and let the QB position sort itself out.

^ You didnt list the QBs that were complete flops outside the top 10 either. Id guess that your are statistically more likely to find successful Qbs taken in the top 10 versus successful QBs taken outside the top 10._________________

Of course there's a selection bias. The point is just that you can find winning QBs later in the draft.

And if we have a top pick and need a QB, we should pull the trigger.

But the question is whether it's worth trading up RG3 style to take a QB. Most of the ones on that top 10 list wouldn't have been worth trading multiple picks for, and some of those who were (P Manning and Luck) wouldn't have been available.

twslhs20Joined: 28 Feb 2008Posts: 14089Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world

Posted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:46 pm Post subject:

Krauser wrote:

So where's the evidence that we have to trade up to find a QB to win the Super Bowl? Seems to me that the plan should be to build the best overall team and let the QB position sort itself out.

First of all your comparing 10 slots to the field. That is a bit unfair in a 250+ player draft.

That's also fine in theory if you want a mediocre QB like Jackson or Ponder. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. When you draft a guy in the first round at QB you are married to that guy for better or worse. If he doesn't succeed? Coaches and GMs lose their jobs. If ponder goes 8-8 I'm sure they will give him another shot, and maybe Frazier is fired. If we get 6 or less wins Frazier and Spielman will get axed. If we make the playoffs and are 1 and done again? Wash, rinse, and repeat mediocrity.

You have to trade up to get your guy, especially with the team that's built now. I'm sick and tired of wasting one of the greatest athletes of all time while waiting around for a QB that competent enough to put us in the SB.

I won't blame Allen when he walks next year if we go .500 and miss the playoffs._________________
Joe_is_the_best ^^

BWG VIKE wrote:

Teddy needs a Snickers, he looks like Ponder when he is hungry

Last edited by twslhs20 on Sat May 04, 2013 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

Of course there's a selection bias. The point is just that you can find winning QBs later in the draft.

Its not a selection bias. If a QB is truly a special prospect, they wont leave the top 10. Just the way it is, QB is simply too valuable of a position to get wrong. Of course you can find winning QBS later in the draft, but your more likely to land 20 Spergon Wynn's before you get Tom Brady or Russell Wilson.

Quote:

And if we have a top pick and need a QB, we should pull the trigger.

I agree, if MN has a top pick that means Ponder didnt produce, more pressure will be on Frazier/Spielman to get it right. As long as MN isnt reaching on a QB with that top pick, like they did in 2011, that is the direction to go.

Quote:

But the question is whether it's worth trading up RG3 style to take a QB. Most of the ones on that top 10 list wouldn't have been worth trading multiple picks for, and some of those who were (P Manning and Luck) wouldn't have been available.

Obviously, MN would only pull off this trade for a QB that was worth it like RGIII. Also, if there isnt a worthwhile QB at the top (like this year), teams will trade that top pick for very little compensation (like the Raiders did). Point is, if there is a top notch QB prospect at the top, it will cost a lot more to trade up._________________

Selection bias meaning that the 19 QBs taken after pick 10 are pulled from a much larger pool than the 13 taken in the top 10, because the ones who didn't make it aren't starting. I'm agreeing with the point that the statistics I presented are distorted in this way.

Aaron Rodgers was a special prospect. Kaepernick was too, in retrospect. The fact that QB is valuable doesn't mean that people don't get it wrong, or else why is Sanchez on the top list.

Having a QB be "worth it" is something that's a lot easier to say after the fact. The point is that you could've been convinced in a lot of those years that Bradford or Vick or Newton or Stafford was "worth it" but they haven't been, so far. RG3 seems "worth it" based on last year, but that might not last if his knee doesn't get put together right.

Meanwhile several QBs who didn't seem "worth it" have rings. Most of them play for perennially good teams (Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Patriots) who aren't inclined to mortgage their futures for one player. I would suggest the Vikings follow that model, not repeat the RG3 trade.

Ponder, much like Matt Ryan, is a QB devoid of elite arm strength. Much like Ryan, he makes up for it with uncanny accuracy, and the ability to throw from different platforms. Elite ball-handling and play-action are in the repertoire of both of these former ACC QB’s. As a matter of fact, the second year for both of these guys are eerily similar.

Surprisingly for a guy that takes a lot of heat from the fans, Ponder in a lot of ways had an even better second season than the much heralded, pro-bowler, Matt Ryan. His completion percentage of almost 63% was a huge improvement over the 54.3% he posted as a rookie. At 6’2, 230 lbs – Ponder is a really good athlete that can extend plays – and is a serious threat to bolt the pocket for big run gains. I expect Musgrave to take advantage of this attribute even more in 2013. If Ponder’s third season mirrors Matt Ryan’s – the Vikings could very much see the Falcons or whoever is in the NFC championship game. I believe Ponder as well as his team is ready for that next step after going 10-6 last season.