I'm reading Taleb's latest book, Skin In The Game, and it's like Sebby is talking to me through a book. Uncanny.

My greatest error was turning down an invite to meet him.* I'd a conflict, but subconsciously, I think I was also intimidated. He's actually a very gracious and friendly person.

I'd proposed discussing the capriciousness of our judicial system and how randomness could be better limited in the processes. I still think that study is out there - a sort of modern version of The Death of Common Sense. And there are great tie-ins to criminal justice reform and our appallingly lax use of dubious expert opinions and their expert-in-a-box authors. His logic would be well employed in exposing the flaws in our stone age adversarial legal system. ...But he'd probably look into it for a few weeks and deem it terminal.

Anyway, you've made my day.

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* Actually, it's further down the list. Not hooking up with this utterly gorgeous chick in Boston in the 90s, deciding against living in Australia during college, and going to law school, are the top three.

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All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

He's right. And Shapiro and French and everybody else who argues that "personal responsibility" dictates life outcomes are deluded. They're also quite unlearned regarding the modern economy.

There are fewer and fewer paths to prosperity in this country for those born affluent and middle class, let alone poor. If you're born poor, you have to pitch a near perfect game, and be incredibly lucky along the way, to ascend several rungs on the class ladder. You've no margin for error at all. You're likely leveraged with debt, and one slip starts a spiral of adverse reinforcing impacts.

It has not always been this way. This is a result of financialization. Carlson nails it when describes Bain Capital's model as predatory. Too much of the increase to the 1% has been created by eliminating the wage costs historically providing income to the lower 40%. And our worship of financialization is amazing. We actually consider consultants and financiers to be among the best and brightest. But ask yourself, "How hard is it to buy a business, lard it with debt, pare labor costs, and then sell it?" Any of us here could do that. It's not rocket science. How hard is it to make a boatload running a fund where you're getting 2 and 20? The hard part is getting into the game. Once you're in it, it's a joke.

The system is rigged to protect the interests of those with a few bucks. The poor kids are priced out of the high paying jobs. And as more and more of the wealth funneled into the financial sector, as no one gives a shit about anything but that and tech anymore, it sucked all of the cash out of the other professions. Nothing in this country will be fixed until we start looking at corporations and economies wholistically, over the longer term. If all we fixate on is cost cutting by removing or arbitraging labor abroad, all of the money will continue to drift into the financial sector (until it succeeds in then eliminating itself with algorithms, which it's doing to an extent already).

There are two options as I see it: Rein in finance and create a new "Contract with Labor" in which corporations are charged with benefiting society as a whole rather than just meeting quarterlies. (If corporations are people, then they should be strongly compelled to act decently, as people are, no?) This would allow for workers to earn decent pay and organically grow the economy. Option two is let everything go to shit and live in one of two dystopias:

DemocratLand: Where the half of society that's eliminated from economic activity is managed with a mix of safety nets.
GOPLand: Where the half of society eliminated from economic activity is ignored and subsists in hellish conditions with minimal safety nets.

I fear the people doing alright at the moment (the top 20%) favor the second option. They like the way things are going and don't really want change. They just disagree about what form of dystopia the economic losers degrade into over the coming decades.

__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

My greatest error was turning down an invite to meet him.* I'd a conflict, but subconsciously, I think I was also intimidated. He's actually a very gracious and friendly person.

The book is a remarkable mix of insight, bombast and crap. He is equipped with a great bullshit detector, but he doesn't point it at himself. He exposes a lack of rigor in other people's thinking, but his writing is anything but rigorous.

__________________“Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof”
- John Kenneth Galbraith

He's right. And Shapiro and French and everybody else who argues that "personal responsibility" dictates life outcomes are deluded. They're also quite unlearned regarding the modern economy.

There are fewer and fewer paths to prosperity in this country for those born affluent and middle class, let alone poor. If you're born poor, you have to pitch a near perfect game, and be incredibly lucky along the way, to ascend several rungs on the class ladder. You've no margin for error at all. You're likely leveraged with debt, and one slip starts a spiral of adverse reinforcing impacts.

It has not always been this way. This is a result of financialization. Carlson nails it when describes Bain Capital's model as predatory. Too much of the increase to the 1% has been created by eliminating the wage costs historically providing income to the lower 40%. And our worship of financialization is amazing. We actually consider consultants and financiers to be among the best and brightest. But ask yourself, "How hard is it to buy a business, lard it with debt, pare labor costs, and then sell it?" Any of us here could do that. It's not rocket science. How hard is it to make a boatload running a fund where you're getting 2 and 20? The hard part is getting into the game. Once you're in it, it's a joke.

The system is rigged to protect the interests of those with a few bucks. The poor kids are priced out of the high paying jobs. And as more and more of the wealth funneled into the financial sector, as no one gives a shit about anything but that and tech anymore, it sucked all of the cash out of the other professions. Nothing in this country will be fixed until we start looking at corporations and economies wholistically, over the longer term. If all we fixate on is cost cutting by removing or arbitraging labor abroad, all of the money will continue to drift into the financial sector (until it succeeds in then eliminating itself with algorithms, which it's doing to an extent already).

There are two options as I see it: Rein in finance and create a new "Contract with Labor" in which corporations are charged with benefiting society as a whole rather than just meeting quarterlies. (If corporations are people, then they should be strongly compelled to act decently, as people are, no?) This would allow for workers to earn decent pay and organically grow the economy. Option two is let everything go to shit and live in one of two dystopias:

DemocratLand: Where the half of society that's eliminated from economic activity is managed with a mix of safety nets.
GOPLand: Where the half of society eliminated from economic activity is ignored and subsists in hellish conditions with minimal safety nets.

I fear the people doing alright at the moment (the top 20%) favor the second option. They like the way things are going and don't really want change. They just disagree about what form of dystopia the economic losers degrade into over the coming decades.

You sound like the sort of Democrat who feels a need to disparage other Democrats (e.g., by saying their plans is to put half the society on safety nets), economic hippie-bashing to win credibility with those to your right.

You sound like the sort of Democrat who feels a need to disparage other Democrats (e.g., by saying their plans is to put half the society on safety nets), economic hippie-bashing to win credibility with those to your right.

Do you hear anything different from the parties right now? All I hear from Democrats is how they'll provide all sorts of things to the people who are suffering as a result of our perverted form of capitalism. But they've no plan to create real growth that would create jobs and living wages. They do not have any desire to do that because that would gore their donors, and in many instances, their own finances.

OTOH, the GOP offers minimal safety nets and scoldings on "personal responsibility." That's hugely fucking productive. Perhaps if they just finger wag hard enough all those couch surfers will finally get off their asses and finish their graduate degrees.

The free market hasn't failed. The free market has been hijacked by the finance industry. And the reason why isn't complex. Financing things is easy, there's minimal overhead, and it's never hard to get yourself paid, well. As a friend who works in institutional sales once explained to me, "The closer your job is to lots of money, the more money you're likely to get." Our culture is completely warped with this thinking. Everything's a hack to get around the slow and steady and often hard work it takes to make money, say, building things, or providing useful services. Too many people with brains with have decided to seek asymmetrical returns, or easiest guaranteed returns, by working with money rather than doing something for which they truly have a talent. If not for tech, I think innovation would be utterly flat, as Cowen cites in The Great Stagnation.

__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

Do you hear anything different from the parties right now? All I hear from Democrats is how they'll provide all sorts of things to the people who are suffering as a result of our perverted form of capitalism. But they've no plan to create real growth that would create jobs and living wages. They do not have any desire to do that because that would gore their donors, and in many instances, their own finances.

If that is all you hear from Democrats, you aren't finding the right ways to listen to Democrats. You are certainly wrong about their reluctance to raise taxes. AOC just floated a big increase in the highest bracket, the point of which is to pay for stuff.

Quote:

OTOH, the GOP offers minimal safety nets and scoldings on "personal responsibility." That's hugely fucking productive. Perhaps if they just finger wag hard enough all those couch surfers will finally get off their asses and finish their graduate degrees.

The objective of the finger-wagging is to provide cover for the haves to do nothing for the have nots.

Quote:

The free market hasn't failed. The free market has been hijacked by the finance industry. And the reason why isn't complex. Financing things is easy, there's minimal overhead, and it's never hard to get yourself paid, well. As a friend who works in institutional sales once explained to me, "The closer your job is to lots of money, the more money you're likely to get." Our culture is completely warped with this thinking. Everything's a hack to get around the slow and steady and often hard work it takes to make money, say, building things, or providing useful services. Too many people with brains with have decided to seek asymmetrical returns, or easiest guaranteed returns, by working with money rather than doing something for which they truly have a talent. If not for tech, I think innovation would be utterly flat, as Cowen cites in The Great Stagnation.

There's no such thing as a free market. The government is full of Republicans who understand exactly how to use its levers to make themselves and their fellow travelers rich. In a free market, Paul Ryan wouldn't leave office and become a lobbyist.

__________________“Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof”
- John Kenneth Galbraith

Do you hear anything different from the parties right now? All I hear from Democrats is how they'll provide all sorts of things to the people who are suffering as a result of our perverted form of capitalism. But they've no plan to create real growth that would create jobs and living wages. They do not have any desire to do that because that would gore their donors, and in many instances, their own finances.

Have you looked at all at the Green New Deal? I have problems with parts of it, but I think it's actually something geared towards what you are talking about.

I think that AOC and new colleagues are approaching things VASTLY differently than their predecessors. And people are listening.

__________________ "In the olden days before the internet, you'd take this sort of person for a ride out into the woods and shoot them, as Darwin intended, before he could spawn."--Will the Vampire People Leave the Lobby? pg 79

Have you looked at all at the Green New Deal? I have problems with parts of it, but I think it's actually something geared towards what you are talking about.

I think that AOC and new colleagues are approaching things VASTLY differently than their predecessors. And people are listening.

I agree she is doing so. But I don’t think the party is getting behind her. From what I’m reading, a lot of the rank and file, and those in charge, are pressing for her to “get in line” with less ambitious establishment policies. But I could be wrong.

__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

If that is all you hear from Democrats, you aren't finding the right ways to listen to Democrats. You are certainly wrong about their reluctance to raise taxes. AOC just floated a big increase in the highest bracket, the point of which is to pay for stuff.

The Green New Deal would do that. If she can pull that off, it’d be impressive. I’m skeptical as the old guard seems to view her as something to be controlled rather than embraced, but I could be wrong.

__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

The Green New Deal would do that. If she can pull that off, it’d be impressive. I’m skeptical as the old guard seems to view her as something to be controlled rather than embraced, but I could be wrong.

Of course there are different people within the party with different priorities, but if you want the government to do things to drive economic growth, then you should vote for a Democrat. Doing those things costs money, and the Republican Party is committed to not spending government money on anything but defense.

It's like trying to buy something to take your family to the mountains on ski trips, and choosing between a boat and a Range Rover. The boat is designed to not do that job. The Range Rover is going to be in the shop a lot. So neither is perfect, but the differences between them are quite different.

__________________“Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof”
- John Kenneth Galbraith

Who is listening? We have always had far left congresspeople from the cities, but they have never generated clout, have they?

Are you kidding? I still can’t tell most the time.

You mean who is listening to AOC *besides* Politico, the NYT, the WaPo, Fox News, 60 Minutes, and every thirsty* GOP operative/politician out there? Shit, even the gals on The View are talking about her. You can barely spend 5 minutes on Twitter without seeing some bro telling her to go to Venezuela yo see why socialism is bad. (Why not a kibbutz? Or Scandinavia?)

In contrast, no one outside of certain neighborhoods in NYC ever gave a shit about Vito Marcantonio back in the day.

*I love how the kids are using “thirsty” these** days.

** I feel like I should put the YouTube link to MTV’s “The Death of Bling” here, but I am too lazy.

You mean who is listening to AOC *besides* Politico, the NYT, the WaPo, Fox News, 60 Minutes, and every thirsty* GOP operative/politician out there? Shit, even the gals on The View are talking about her. You can barely spend 5 minutes on Twitter without seeing some bro telling her to go to Venezuela yo see why socialism is bad. (Why not a kibbutz? Or Scandinavia?)

In contrast, no one outside of certain neighborhoods in NYC ever gave a shit about Vito Marcantonio back in the day.

*I love how the kids are using “thirsty” these** days.

** I feel like I should put the YouTube link to MTV’s “The Death of Bling” here, but I am too lazy.

Yes she is the flavor, but she is gaining clout? What you list is the same as Maxine Waters, yes? Not dogging on her just asking if she is seeing any real movement.