Robots may displace 20m manufacturing jobs by 2030

The pockets of workers most vulnerable to automation can often be found in rural areas with a traditional, labour-intensive industrial base, according to Oxford Economics. Picture: George Frey, Bloomberg News

Robots are on track to wipe out almost a tenth of the world’s manufacturing jobs with the brunt borne by lower-income areas in developed nations, Oxford Economics says.

While automation should boost the economy as a whole, it is likely to create greater inequality as employment losses are concentrated in certain industries and countries. Manufacturing could lose 20 million positions by 2030, making the sector 8.5% smaller than “if robots were not remaking the market,” according to the research firm’s report.

Job losses per robot

The pockets of workers most vulnerable to automation can often be found in rural areas with a traditional, labour-intensive industrial base, Oxford Economics said. Oregon is the US state most likely to be affected, while the worst-hit region in the UK is likely to be Cumbria.

“In many countries, such regions have often been left behind as metropolitan centres prospered, and those dynamics have generated political polarisation. This highlights the importance of taking policy action to cushion the likely impact of robotisation in these vulnerable areas.”

— “How Robots Change the World” by Oxford Economics

The report highlights how the structural shift in the labour market is throwing up new challenges as an increasing array of tasks are automated. It says more than half of US factory workers displaced by robots over the past two decades were absorbed into three employment categories — transport, construction and maintenance, and office and administration work. Yet those categories are the most vulnerable to automation over the next decade.

The IMF has also highlighted the risk of rising inequality, and the OECD said last year that geography was a key factor because of the clustering of certain industries. For example, it found the proportion of jobs at risk of being taken over by robots was far higher in western Slovakia than around Oslo.

Oxford Economics said that metropolises such as London, Tokyo, Paris or Seoul are likely to be less affected, though even some traditional manufacturing hubs could fare well.

“Regions that surround knowledge-intensive cities such as Toulouse and Grenoble in France, or Munich and Stuttgart in Germany, typically show much lower levels of vulnerability,” it said.

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16

Yup, SA still have fuel station attendants years after new tech came into operation abroad.
And they will resist to replace the “grocery packer” job at the till. At certain times of the day, there’s more staff wandering between the isles (and serving the tills) at our local PnP Hyper, than there are customers.

But one (anecdotal) problem I came across at a certain service station in Randburg: an automated roller-based car-wash system was removed in favour or a hand-wash operation. Asked the owner: “it would’ve costed me close to a million to fix it & incl. flying-in the technician from Italy” Hand wash is cheaper…
(…until you have striking workers, then a new problem arise…losing business)

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Robots will only replace repetitive jobs. Where creativity or hi-touch is required, they are useless. And as for the fad of ‘self-driving’ cars, even the head honchos of major car companies are privately (and sometimes publicly) sceptical about their future. Man has consistently underestimated the capabilities of the human brain. Just imagine a self-driving car being able to be programmed to deal with the vagaries of our taxis? Doesn’t bear thinking about.

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The issue here is realtive competitiveness. We are far away from our markets plus we do everything manually. Our competitors in Australia, a bit closer to Asia etc, is busy embracing automation. Guess who is making the profit and will survive the market storms better?