Outlook 2018: Retrospective

Every year, Geopoliticalmonitor.com publishes annual forecasts predicting major geopolitical shifts in the year to come. But before the new 2018 series is published, it’s time to take a look back at Outlook 2017 and see how our predictions held up to the year’s events.

‘A Make-or-Break Year for the EU’

Outlook 2017 began by highlighting the decisive year ahead for the European Union. It wasn’t just the overriding issue of Brexit negotiations; there were also several key elections that were to take place throughout the bloc in 2017. The year saw general elections held in the Netherlands and Germany, a presidential election in France, and a general election in Italy in either 2017 or 2018 (ultimately the Italian polls will take place in 2018). All of these elections pitted establishment favorites against populist, anti-EU upstarts, and the resolution of these contests would weigh heavily on the future policy direction, perhaps even future existence, of the EU.