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Cool War

(Bloomberg) -- On Christmas Day 1991, Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as the last leader of the Soviet Union, ending 44 years of ideological conflict, nuclear brinkmanship and military combat-by-proxy with the U.S. forever. Or so it seemed. Now, Russia and the U.S. have squared off on either side of conflicts in Ukraine, in Syria and in cyberspace. Russia stands accused of meddling in elections in the U.S. and Europe, along with carrying out assassinations and attempted hits in Britain. A Russian leader is proposing an economic and political alternative to Western-style democracy. Is the Cold War back? The veteran U.S. statesman Henry Kissinger said it’s possible. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said it’s happening. Donald Trump's presidency promised to ease tensions, though instead they show signs of getting worse.

The Situation

Russian jets have been buzzing NATO airspace and naval vessels at a rate not seen since the days of the Soviet Union. The alliance has strengthened its presence along Russia’s borders in response to Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Political oratory has also developed a Cold War tone, with President Vladimir Putin accusing the U.S. and European Union of trying to humiliate Russia. The U.S. and EU have imposed sanctions on Russia, another feature of the Cold War. All that promised to change under President Trump, who as a candidate questioned the key Western security alliances that Russia has long opposed and tilted toward the Kremlin's position on issues like the Syrian civil war and Crimea. But since taking office, investigations into Trump officials' possible collusion with Russia and its meddling in the 2016 U.S. election -- allegations Russia denies -- have complicated efforts to improve relations. In Syria, U.S. jets killed scores of Russian mercenaries in February as they attacked U.S. positions. The U.K., meanwhile, accused Russia of poisoning a former spy with a nerve agent in Europe's first chemical weapons attack since World War II.

The Background

The Cold War began in 1947, when U.S. President Harry Truman asked Congress for $400 million (about $4.2 billion in today’s dollars) to help defeat the communists in Greece’s civil war and stop the Soviet Union from projecting power in the Mediterranean and Middle East. In his speech, he set out what came to be called the Truman doctrine, under which the U.S. would contain Soviet expansion by supporting “free peoples who are resisting subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.” Soviet diplomats saw this policy as imperial aggression from an American elite claiming the right to lead the world. The ensuing struggle included Soviet efforts in 1948 and 1961 to drive the Allies out of Berlin; a nuclear arms race; the Korean and Vietnam wars; the creation of opposing military blocs in Europe; and the Cuban missile crisis. It wasn’t until 1969 that the two sides sought a kind of truce, with arms control treaties, hotlines and other measures to reduce the chance of war.

The Argument

The current standoff between Russia and the U.S. shares features of the Cold War, including deep mistrust. There are big differences, too. Some analysts of Russia and Eastern Europe have argued that the Cold War cannot repeat itself because Russia has no ideology as alluring as communism, and because its military is weaker, its allies fewer and its economy more integrated with the rest of the world’s. The counter-argument, from the likes of Columbia University’s Robert Legvold, is that while today’s might be a different Cold War, it should be treated similarly. That’s because Russia retains a vast nuclear arsenal, as well as the will and military means to be a regional superpower. A doctrine that claims the right to intervene militarily wherever ethnic Russians live makes the risk of escalation high. And while Putin’s Russia may not have communism to offer the world, he has found takers for a concept of “managed democracy” and conservative values that compete with democratic and liberal ones. Re-elected in March to another six-year term, Putin has already ruled longer than any Soviet leader other than dictator Joseph Stalin. So containment and agreements to reduce the risk of unintended wars may be needed again. Whether a Cold War or just a cool one, it could be long and costly to both sides.