Thursday, June 20, 2013

Yes, 2016 is closer than you think -- June 20, 2013 column

By MARSHA MERCER

In his first summer as
a lame duck president, Barack Obama has something in common with George W. Bush.

Obama’s job approval
rating is only slightly higher than Bush’s 46 percent at this point in his presidency,
June 2005. Obama’s popularity has been shaken by reports of the National
Security Agency’s phone call tracking, which began in Bush’s term, and of IRS’s
targeting tea party groups for special scrutiny, a scandal the Obama
administration owns.

Iowa’s presidential
caucuses are still 30 months away, but potential candidates and party
operatives are already moving to the next presidential contest. Eight years ago,
Democrats were aching to regain the White House; now it’s the Republicans’
turn.

Among possible GOP
candidates, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., Mitt Romney’s running mate last year, rates
highest among Republican voters, while Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., and Sen.
Mark Rubio, R-Fla., get higher marks from the general public, Gallup reports.
Christie has had weight-loss surgery – for his physical, not his political,
health, he insists.

Democrats are talking enthusiastically
about Hillary Clinton as the first woman president, just as they did eight years
ago. Therein lies a cautionary tale.

Back in Summer 2005, Clinton
was seen as formidable, if not yet inevitable. When Hillary Clinton appeared
with Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, and Gov. Tom
Vilsack of Iowa at a meeting of the Democratic Leadership Council, she stole the
show. The DLC was a centrist group that had boosted Bill Clinton’s prospects
for the White House, and Hillary Clinton was trying to squeeze her liberal foot
into a moderate shoe.

Obama, a freshman
senator from Illinois, had spoken eloquently at the 2004 Democratic National
Convention, but Clinton and her fans thought him too inexperienced to win just
four years later. Voters had other opinions.

The country is even more polarized these days. Tea partiers push
Republicans to the right, and Democrats drift left. The DLC closed its doors in
2011.

This time around, Vice
President Joe Biden has Senate as well as one-heartbeat-away experience to be
president. Clinton and her fans should recognize his potential vote-getting
power.

At the same time, the
historical significance of the first woman president is huge. Clinton has distinguished
herself as a loyal member of the Obama team and as the nation’s top diplomat. Republicans
treat her like a frontrunner by attempting to tarnish her sterling reputation with
questions about her role in the attack on the consulate in Benghazi, Libya,
which cost four American lives.

Clinton is 65 but
she’s hardly ready to retire. Her next memoir is due out next June, and like
her husband, she’s on the talk circuit.

When she spoke to the
Economic Club of Grand Rapids, Mich., last Monday night, about 50 supporters
outside waved “I’m Ready for Hillary” signs and chanted “Hill-a-ry,
20-16. Hill-a-ry, 20-16.”

The Grand Rapids Press also reported that Clinton offered five rules for
life in her speech, including: “You
can’t win if you don’t show up.” She was referring to the need to demonstrate to
countries large and small that the United States values their friendship. But
of course her remark added to the buzz about whether she will show up in 2016.
Clinton hasn’t announced her plans, but almost everyone assumes she’s in.

The Ready for Hillary
super PAC is hard at work building a grassroots draft movement. Sen. Claire
McCaskill, D-Mo., became the first member of Congress to jump on the Hillary bandwagon.
McCaskill supported Obama early on for 2008. No fan of
Bill Clinton, she said in 2006 she wouldn’t want him near her daughter. That
was then.

Hillary Clinton could
follow her husband’s lead and make money. Bill Clinton brought home $17 million
in speaking fees from mid-January 2012 to mid-January 2013. He made 73 speeches
at an average rate of $195,000 per speech, a CNN analysis of financial reports
found. The former president has made a whopping $106 million in speaking fees
since he left the White House.