2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 08, 2012

08

Houston at New York

Monday 10/08 08:35 PM Eastern

2 units on New York PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN

On the surface this looks like an easy Texans blowout. The Jets are in shambles coming off a 34-0 home loss. New York has beaten two mediocre teams in Buffalo and Miami, but they have lost by a combined score of 61-10 to the two good teams on their schedule (San Francisco and Pittsburgh). But in the NFL, often what looks too good to be true is just that. This is a long road trip to the Northeast for Houston, and an indoor team will be playing outdoors at night at MetLife Stadium where it will be rainy and cool. The Texans have two measuring-stick games on deck against the Packers and Ravens (both at home), so this could be a look-ahead spot. This is also the third road game in four weeks for Houston and they will be facing a fired-up and angry home team. Regardless of what you think of the Jets, these are professional athletes. After a beat-down like they took last week, you can bet that the Jets will bring it all on Monday night. They will have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove to a national audience. All the focus has been on what the Jets have lost in Santonio Holmes and CB Darrelle Revis and that's reflected in this betting line. But when stars go down, the troops can rally in big-game spots like this. New York’s defense has looked really bad this season, but keep in mind that under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 1-10 ATS vs. teams that allow 27+ points per game. The Jets have been an excellent bounce-back team under Rex Ryan, going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. "It ticked me off," one Jets player said yesterday. "It was a tough pill to swallow. I hate to lose. I take that to heart." Another Jet said, "You'll see a fired-up, motivated team, without a doubt. There’s an urgency to get things fixed and show everybody that wasn't us." Underdogs that got trounced in the previous week (lost by over 30 points) have hit 61% against the spread since 1990. And, under Gary Kubiak the Texans are just 11-21 ATS in road games when following a home game. Take the Jets and the points.