On the favorability question, Kulongoski has a 50%/39% split - for a +11 margin. Ron Saxton is viewed favorably by 32%, and unfavorably by 33%, for a -1 margin. Westlund and Starrett have favorables of 15% and 16% respectively, with unfavorables of 11% and 14% -- roughly similar in size.

Comments

Well this is unexpected... the guv's own consultant does a poll that comes with a full 2-page summary and it's positively glowing? Color me impressed. Maybe next week he'll nab that coveted Easter Bunny endorsement.

Come on Ted-Campaign! Let's put some work into getting the external polling up instead of focusing on the Potemkin Polls.

JHL, if it's done by Lisa Grove, it's a serious poll. That's her business, and she has a very good reputation.

Besides, it makes complete sense. Ted has been in trouble with his base for his at times painful devotion to fiscal responsibility while managing the state through these last two years of economic crisis.

Who are his opponents? One, Westlund, who probably would have acted much like Ted did. And the other, Saxton, who would have acted much much worse.

There's nothing giving you that old Democratic religion than seeing the very real possibility of electing a modern-day (i.e. idiotic) Republican.

My unscientific survey of Southern Oregon media shows positive Kulongoski coverage. Support for Ted comes from the large highly organized enviro's. Ted's playing well by supporting protection of the Biscuit Fire area and the Kalimeopsis wilderness area. He's also playing well among those who recognize his efforts and successes in economic development. The results of the recent poll accurately reflect that Westland, Saxton and Starrett will divide the Republican vote between them. There has never been a better time in Oregon's history to be a Democrat. Bush bashing trickles down to state and local voters.

I haven't heard a peep from Starrett since her announcement. Westlund has been in the papers and on TV ever since.

Uh, JTT, don't you think that supports Kari's point? Starrett hasn't gotten any attention from the press while Westlund has been bathed in it for months and yet they're in a dead heat. We decide elections by votes, not press coverage.

That said, I am rather shocked that so few people know Westlund--and that so many know Starrett. I think Starrett may well be the major story of the campaign. Interesting...

Hi Paulie, I'd like to see a BlueOregon blog post on this race that talks about what's going on. If you or someone else out there could put it together, it would be much appreciated. How is the campaign going, website address, how people can plug in, what the issues are, etc.

Spicefully yours....

btw, neighborhood night out tonight! See you in the park :) Wilshire Park :)

After reading today's Oregonian (which takes about 5 minutes these days), one wouldn't be too surprised if 18% thought Schwarzenegger has a good chance of holding on to Oregon's gubernatorial seat.

State and local politics appear to have become just another obscure endeavor with a small band of seriously devoted practitioners and followers.

While Americans have been historically largely uninvolved and ignorant of state and local politics, the current "national entertainment state" and offspring of the baby-boom generation seem particularly self-absorbed and oblivious to the link between policymaking and their daily lives.

Ok, gotta' get back to downloading my ipod and catching up on the latest on Mel Gibson.....

JHL,
I was in Minnesota when Jesse Ventura won. He won because in Minnesota you can register to vote at the polls on election day and Jesse inspired many, many first-time voters to come out and vote for him. (His campaign ads were brilliant, btw.)

Also, Jesse's competition was a Democrat (Hoover) who ran on his record of shaking down tobacco companies (not really that popular in MN) and a Democrat-turned-born-again-Republican, Norm Coleman. Both of those candidates took their bases for granted and pandered in ways even the most gullible citizen would see through.

But Jesse ended up proving what Westlund would: Independents in an executuve position have no power whatsoever to promote their agendas. True, Jesse was terrible at developing a consensus or getting "buy in," but his lack of a party or base would have hamstrung him in any case.

Zak - as a former Ways & Means Chair, Westlund has more legislative prowess than Ventura did... but the thread is not about effectiveness in office, it's about the gov touting a poll, and I assert that it bears less meaning than suggests it does.

You said that one reason for Ventura's victory was:
Both of those candidates took their bases for granted and pandered in ways even the most gullible citizen would see through.

Ventura was also polling in the single digits until he did a televised debate with the major-party candidates, effectively convincing a plurality that he was competent enough to lead. I see people trot out Ventura as evidence of a lot of things, but it's very hard to compare a national wrestling celebrity with a state legislator from Bend. Not to say Ben wouldn't wow people in a televised debate, but you're comparing apples and oranges.

Kari,
I have to disagree with you on the Starrett factor. Quite a few of the far right Republicans embraced Starrett initially, but she has since come out with a couple zingers that are remindful of Ross Perot's paranoid fit over his daughter's wedding. Her initial support, which was basically the extreme right to life faction, are concerned by her statements concerning Bush foreign policy and the use of the National Guard. I don't think she'll get beyond the single digits.

Westlund, on the other hand, is going to be a major factor in this race, and I believe he will pull way more votes from the governor than from Saxton.

I agree that Starrett will be a major factor, but not because of how well she does. She will get single digits. But, if Saxton loses to either Teddy or Ben by single digits, you could say the Starrett factor spoiled it for Ron.

Further, the GOP will do very well in legislative races, and Starrett will help, not harm, them. About 10% of the conservative base is just sick of Saxton, for a variety of reasons. Many of these voters might sit out the election, but for a far-right alternative like Starrett. In close legislative races, a few percent could turn a blue district red. If Starrett on the ballot gets these far-right voters voting, odds are most of them are going to also vote for GOP candidates in local races.

Considering that Westlund will also bring in other "disenfranchised" Republicans, having both Starrett and Westlund on the ballot in addition to Saxton might be good news for Teddy K's re-election bid, but bad news for our legislature.

To the Oregon Legislature:

Enough is enough. Twice in two years, reasonable gun safety proposals have not even received a vote in the Oregon Legislature. No solution is perfect, but we must act now to save lives. We ask you to commit now to passing reasonable gun safety laws at your next opportunity.

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This petition sponsored by BlueOregon and Oregon NOW. By signing, you agree to receive email updates from BlueOregon and Oregon NOW about this petition and other critical issues. (You may always unsubscribe, of course.) Learn more.

To the Oregon Legislature:

Enough is enough. Twice in two years, reasonable gun safety proposals have not even received a vote in the Oregon Legislature. No solution is perfect, but we must act now to save lives. We ask you to commit now to passing reasonable gun safety laws at your next opportunity.

First Name*

Last Name*

Email Address*

Zip Code*

This petition sponsored by BlueOregon and Oregon NOW. By signing, you agree to receive email updates from BlueOregon and Oregon NOW about this petition and other critical issues. (You may always unsubscribe, of course.) Learn more.