“If Britain decides to leave Sweden is, in relative terms, likely to be hit harder than most European neighbours. Sweden’s influence and position in the EU is strengthened by the companionship Sweden and the UK have as being non-EMU EU states.

Sweden has received preferential treatment in many areas on the back of the UK’s importance to the Union. This could hamper growth long term. That is possibly the most important effect.

However, there are more tangible short- term effects to consider. There will most likely be a period of significant uncertainty concerning the effects on the UK economy of Brexit. This will increase risk premiums in the UK asset markets and some investors will opt for markets with good growth prospects, high liquidity and transparency, such as Sweden. The Swedish property market should thus benefit from Brexit even before the referendum in June.

There will be short-term negative effects too. The Swedish property market is concentrated in the three major cities, Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo. The three account for roughly 70-80% of the annual institutional transaction volumes in Sweden. At the same time the importance of the UK as an export market is significantly greater in the dominating Stockholm area than in most other parts of Sweden.

If the UK leaves the EU, with all likelihood, a new bilateral trade agreement between Sweden and UK must be negotiated. This could take many years. Recently it took seven years to renegotiate the Swedish-Canadian trade agreement. This could prove negative for Stockholm and the capital is the country’s growth engine. Great Britain is the most important trade partner for the Greater Stockholm region, accounting for 9% of exports.

The effect is, however, likely to be hard to identify. A lack of UK export/import business will be substituted over time and the net effects will be hard to single out.

The long-term effects are likely to be, if anything, negative but will be overshadowed by other events and trends.”