Buying clothes that fit

Right now, Oklahoma City has expressed high interest in two guys – Marcin Gortat and Paul Millsap. Sam Presti phoned both of them within an hour of the free agency period starting with Millsap and then Gortat minutes later. Both are restricted free agents but both look like they’ll be cut loose by their current teams. They play different positions and do different things yet OKC will probably have to pick one or the other to direct its focus on – there’s no way the Thunder splurges and signs both. In some ways, I actually wonder if the Thunder signs either.

But right now, if you had to choose, which one do you go after? The seven-foot center Gortat or the brawny power forward Millsap? You can look at lots of things – need, fit, upside, price, nicknames. (Gortat has maybe the best in the league with The Polish Hammer and I don’t even know what Millsap’s is. I started calling him “The Milkman” last year, but I’m sure that’s not official. You’ve got to weigh those sort of things.) I see it this way: Which would you rather have, designer clothes that look really awesome or clothes that actually fit? What you buy needs to fit your wardrobe and shouldn’t make you start throwing away all the clothes you’ve already got. It should just be something that you can add right in and doesn’t cause a total rearranging of your closet.

Gortat fits, Millsap looks nice. Millsap is going to want more than Gortat and Millsap’s likely to be a well-paid backup. Millsap is looking for a contract somewhere in the range of five years, $45 million. He’s probably not going to get that, but that’s what he’s after. Maybe OKC could ink him for around $7M per. That’s a pretty big maybe. The only thing that makes that reasonable is that there aren’t a lot of teams playing in this free agent market. But if the Thunder could get him in that territory, it wouldn’t be that bad of a deal. And for that amount, Utah might be willing to match. You just can’t know.

Gortat could feasibly be next year’s starter, but if not, he’d be making reasonable bench player money. A lot of this depends on the vision for Jeff Green. If he’s your power forward of the future, then signing Millsap doesn’t make a crapton of sense. But if OKC feels like Green is a sixth man or possibly not in the long-term plans, then Millsap would be a good fit. If you’re asking me, I truly believe Green has the tools to be a solid 4 in this league. Heck, he really already is – 16.5 and 7 ain’t that bad in your second season.

I think the organization sees Uncle Jeff as its power forward. But if they sign Millsap, I guess we’ll know they think differently. Unless of course Millsap is being signed just to take Nick Collison’s spot, which would be great if the Thunder could sign Millsap for the same money they’re paying Collison. But that probably has about as much chance of happening as me getting a 10-day contract.

Millsap is a nice player. He was excellent in Carlos Boozer’s absence last year and that great play earned him what’s sure to be a nice contract. But the Thunder’s fairly stacked at power forward. Of course there’s Green and Collison, but what about D.J. White who played just seven games last year? White looked pretty darn good in those games and with some added weight and a little refining, what’s to say he’s not going to be an excellent backup big man? Or even Serge Ibaka? He’s coming over and playing in the summer league. Maybe he blows management away and makes the roster as an extra big. Now you’re jammed full of power forwards, but one of them you just signed for five years and $40 million.

To me, signing Millsap isn’t a very Presti-like move. It seems like a rushed, let’s-get-better-right-now move instead of the planned, calculated progression Presti has had since he took over. Signing Millsap would make you either take some clothes to Goodwill or make you completely rearrange everything.

Gortat on the hand, would fit nicely in the closet. Though The Polish Hammer is really an unknown. He played well in the playoffs (which is probably a bad thing for OKC because it drove his demand and price up) but he didn’t make much of a dent in the regular season (3.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg in 12.5 minutes per game). He’s just 25 and next year will be his third season in the league. But he’s more athletic than most men his size and his has some untapped potential. He can protect the rim, provides the Thunder with a physical post presence to defend guys like Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan and Al Jefferson, is a quality rebounder and can even score the ball a little.

You know who the Thunder’s current backup center is? Nick Collison. Sure B.J. Mullens just got picked, but he’s a ways off so as of right now, Collison is playing the backup 4 and 5. So there’s clearly a place and a need there.

But the question as always: Is the price right?

Gortat has already said he’s going to want at least the mid-level exception, which would immediately take a team like Houston out of the running because they aren’t willing to offer that much and you’d think would eliminate Orlando from matching, though reports say they will. Really, most every other team out there doesn’t have the room available to make an offer at or above the MLE. Memphis was the other major player but they just traded for… hang on…. (laughing uncontrollably)…. Zach Randolph, so I guess they’ve filled their power forward position.

So that’s a contract in the area of five-years, $30 million for a guy that you think can be a tremendous help. That’s 6 million a year for all you math wizards. That’s how much we’re paying Collison and Earl Watson right now. So don’t think for a second that it’s a major, big money deal. I’d pay the same money we’re paying to Earl Watson for a quality backup/starting center, wouldn’t you?

Nenad Krstic has two years left on his deal. B.J. Mullens is probably two or three years away from having the chance to really compete for serious playing time. So there’s no harm in spending a little money on a big man that could potentially be your starter next year or at least in two. A combination of Krstic and Gortat would not only give OKC the whitest, most foreign center combo possibly in league history, but also two guys that have complementing games and would combine to make one really good center at the price of around $11M per. That’s not so outrageous is it? For perspective, Erick Dampier makes $12 million this year. Brad Miller makes $12.5 million. Eddy Curry makes $11 million next year. And we’d have two quality big men for around the price of that. That sounds good to me.

Presti is smart enough not to overextend. Gortat looks like a nice fit but he’s not The Fit. He’s not the missing piece to drive us to the playoffs. He’s a nice player that would fill a need. But he’s not worth overpaying and he’s definitely not worth mortgaging the future for. Unless the tag is around the mid-level exception (about $6 million), there’s no way OKC signs him. Just no way. Same goes for Millsap.

And right now, the ball’s in the Thunder’s court because not too many teams out there can even offer that. Dallas is in play, Indiana is talking and Houston wants in. Now Orlando is even saying they plan on matching any offer, unless Gortat doesn’t want to come back. Gortat’s got a bunch of people talking and his destination may not be Oklahoma City, but if the price is right, it should be.

@NBI think Powe would be a nice addition for sure. And under the terms you're setting, it doesn't sound that wild. I think we'd start him out in Tulsa once he recovers and then for that little of a deal, it might be worth finding out what he can give.

Okay, It is quite early and I'm still hungover from Saturday, so this might be the crazy talking. I'm also a bit late getting in on this thread, but...

What about Leon Powe? Yes, he serious fucked up his knee. We don't know if he'll ever be the same again. At the same time, he's just coming off his rookie contract. He's cheap, he doesn't have a job, and he looks like a pretty inexpensive gamble that could pay big dividends. Powe had his surgery on May 5th, putting his return (in the ideal recovery timeline) around Dec-Feb.

Let's say the Thunder offer him a $500,000 contract with a $250,000 bonus if he plays in 15 games or $500,000 if he plays in 25 (or something to that effect) to provide an incentive for quick recovery. Then we also tack on a 1 or 2 year team option, so we can lock him down if his recovery is successful.

Take a look at Powe's stats (If the linking doesn't work, I'll re-post)... his regular season WP48 last year was .212, only .007 lower than Rondo's and significantly higher than Ray Allen's. Also his career TRB% is 17.2%... he hasn't played enough to be ranked among active players, but you can see he'd fit on that list right below Shaq and just above KG. Of course these are two stats among many, but I thought they were interesting nonetheless.

So, would he fit into the system, would he get enough minutes to make a meaningful difference, will he make a full recovery and continue to grow as a player/person?

Well, I don't know the answers to these questions, but the Thunder could use a man of his talents...

To get back to Jeff Green - he is a horrible defender as a PF. Yes he averaged 16 and 7, but that 16 points per game was at a perimeter player's efficiency, 44% FG. The Thunder were one of the worst shooting teams in the league mainly because they lack anyone that can finish high percentage shots inside. How tired are you of watching Green get stuffed inside? Or Nick Collison? Paul Millsap shot over 53% from the field last year and is an excellent finisher around the basket. As a starter he averaged 16 points a game like Jeff Green did, but they were much more efficient points. Plus he turns the ball over less, plays much better defense, rebounds better, blocks more shots, steals more balls, and is overall a better fit at PF.

Jeff Green is a SF. His standing reach is 8'7" which is barely passable for a PF in the NBA. Most PF's who are successful with that kind of standing reach are huge, strong players that can use their mass to offset that weakness. Carl Landry, for example.

OKC strength is perimeter scorers and defenders. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, (hopefully) James Harden, and Nenad Krstic are all good perimeter scorers. Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Weaver, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green are all good perimeter defenders. They lack interior, high percentage scoring, and defense. Paul Millsap will not solve the center problem, but then again who will this offseason or next? The Thunder can draft a center or trade their two picks for one next year to plug that hole, which is a better strategy anyway since a rookie scale center is a great thing to have.

Millsap would be a great pick up. Just because the team has D.J. White and Nick Collison doesn't mean Millsap should not be signed; this guy is an NBA starting power forward and Jeff Green IS NOT. If Presti is as astute as he seems he'll realize the Jeff Green at PF experiment will not work. Paul Millsap was much more productive last season at PF than Jeff Green was; and if you just take Paul Millsap's 38 games started it's even less of a contest. He put up 16/10/2/1/1 on excellent FG% in 38 games started. Jeff Green might end up scoring more, but he's worse defensively and will never average 10 boards and a blocked shot in the NBA.

Hopefully Presti realizes that Paul Millsap is an upgrade at PF over Jeff Green. Remember that Jeff Green was not drafted as a PF. The plan was Kevin Durant at SG and Jeff Green at SF. He does not have the strength or length that Millsap has to allow himself to overcome his lack of height (Millsap is an inch shorter but his standing reach is two inches longer than Jeff Green's). Jeff Green's been a perimeter oriented player the last two years and this team will not win with four perimeter players and a center unless that center is Dwight Howard.

Paul Millsap would instantly lock down the starting PF spot; Jeff Green would be an excellent sixth man grabbing minutes at SF (his natural position) and PF. OKC has two likely lottery picks in next year's draft to address the center position.

Bo :I’ll take Paul Milsap and his known capacity for double double’s. Stiff centers that play a few good games (limited minutes vs other subs) in the playoffs aren’t my cup of tea. Have you ever heard of Jerome James? Evan Eschmeyer (or whoever that Dallas center that won a playoff game off a dunk and parlayed into an extension)? The upside is there, so is the downside.

While I don't agree with your premise, I can't disagree with your Jerome James analogy. I am/was a big Sonic fan and watched that playoff series very closely. I remember him waving that black plastic bag at the Sacto fans. And I almost fell out of my chair when NYK gave him 5+ million a year. He was definitely the recipient of some playoff hype. But Gortat did it all year long, and not just in the playoffs. Gortat for the season had a really exceptional rebounding rate and blocks rate. Jerome James did not (at least in rebounding). Isaiah Thomas might have been the biggest gomer I've ever seen as an executive of a team. Gortat is much the better prospect. People on this board like Gortat because he was producing at a very high rate, even though low on minutes, throughout the season. His one start in the playoffs was simply validation of an already suspected prospect.

Well, if the PH isn’t an option anymore, does anyone want a Channing Frye?

Vega, why do you like Channing Frye? He's another jump shooting big man who doesn't like to mix it up inside. How does that help our team. We've already got Durant, Green, Krstic, DJ, Harden, and to a degree Westbrook who like to mostly shoot jumpshots. What benefit is there for us to take Frye and add to the mix? To me, he's an at best third PF/C, nothing more. If I am missing something please tell me, but there is a reason Frye is being allowed to walk from Portland for nothing, and he's not getting any love on the FA market.

I'll take Paul Milsap and his known capacity for double double's. Stiff centers that play a few good games (limited minutes vs other subs) in the playoffs aren't my cup of tea. Have you ever heard of Jerome James? Evan Eschmeyer (or whoever that Dallas center that won a playoff game off a dunk and parlayed into an extension)? The upside is there, so is the downside.

@RoyceWhy is Gortat off the market? For one, players can't sign contracts (even offer sheets) until the start of free agency. That means anything he may have worked out with the Mavs doesn't yet exist. He's by no means off the market. For two, Orlando holds the fate of Gortat regardless of who signs him to an offer sheet. They can match an offer from Dallas then trade him to Toronto or OKC. For three, if Presti has any desire of signing Gortat, he offered 6 million a year, just more than the MLE. Gortat, even if he intends to go somewhere else, will sign our offer sheet (getting him more money) then have Orlando trade him to Dallas or wherever.

1) Dallas has only the MLE, regardless of how much Cuban wants to spend.2) Gortat has absolutely no final say in where he ends up.3) We can offer him the most, and he is going to sign the highest offer sheet he is offered.

@Bang4ur$actually, gortat's upside is much higher. millsap is just about maxing out his talents, whereas gortat can (and will) improve. plus gortat has the advantage of height. pass on millsap, not worth the money to our team. unfortunately the gortat discussion is apparently pointless anyway

I have trouble believing Presti would even bother to call Gortat if he wasn't prepared to spend as much or more than is allowed under the mid level exception. Everybody knew that Gortat would be fielding offers of at least that amount. I also don't buy into the central premise of this post (sorry Royce). If Presti want's to do it, we can afford to bring on BOTH of these guys by offering them front-loaded contracts. Atkins can be bought out for less than a mill. Watson, Collison and Wilkins could be shipped to teams under the cap for future picks and little/nothing coming back as salary to eat cap space. Not saying we SHOULD do those things, but I really do think that BOTH of those guys are there for the signing if Presti chooses to. One nice thing about both of those players is that they would be imminently tradable down the road if better options came emerged.

Who would you rather have, a guy who posted 19 consecutive double-doubles, or a guy who started 2 games and is basically an unknown commoditiy. I saw it pointed out that MGortat is still basically an unknown because no one has game planned for him at this point in his career. How will he respond to being on the radar? Rebounding is probably something that translates pretty well, but projecting the rest of his per-minute stats is just hoping. The upside of Paul Millsap is so much higher than Gortat, if you could actually get him for $7 million it's a risk worth taking by all means. At $10 mil... maybe, but it's no longer a value proposition. But Gortat at $5 mil or Millsap at $7? Who do you think would have more trade value? I'm liking the idea of Millsap more and more...maybe even at $8 or $9mil per. Not sure where to draw the line. You can never have too many assets/big bodies. Green is great, but why not bring him off the bench as your backup 3/4? He's not the greatest rebounder, nor defender against top pfs...

@Vegakrstic 2.0, doesn't really change much of anything. collison is shorter, but he's a better rebounder/defender than frye. if he's cheap it wouldn't be terrible to grab another 7 footer, but i don't think it does a whole lot.

Not sure who the Magic would want in return from Dallas, anyway. Plus, Dallas is still in hot pursuit of Jason Kidd...

Posters on the Orlando Magic forums are saying that Otis Smith told Gortat to test the market to figure out some sign-and-trade offers. I think Collison and Watson's expiring contract would be pretty fair. Orlando gets an energy guy and a backup PG, we get the 5 help we need. Don't think the financials would work in that deal, though. Presti--you're smarter than me, figure something out!

@RhettI think JG can be Rashard Lewis only if Gortat can be Dwight, which he obviously can't. I like Gortat and think he is a great fit and good rebounder (not on Dwight's level though), but even with Gortat I still think Green's destiny with this team is as a 6th man and that more physicality and rebounding will EVENTUALLY be needed at PF unless White or Ibaka can develop to fill that role. 16.5 points and 7 rebounds sounds nice for a second year player, but Green still ranked 63rd in rebound rate among power forwards and sported a PER of 13.99.

royce, do you know about this stuff? everybody keeps talking about cuban overpaying for gortat, but i really don't think he can. all he can offer is the MLE, which isn't overpaying him. am i wrong on this? (entirely possible)

@KingGondoi'm not entirely sure about this, but my understanding is that the mavs can't have offered him that much. they don't have the cap space, all they can give is the MLE. they aren't allowed to pay him any more than that, free-spending owner or not

Cuban's going to overpay for Gortat so I really don't see him coming here, though he would be a good fit.I think Millsap's a much better player, but not as good a fit. Also, I worry that his contract will hurt us when resigning our '07/'08 draft picks and I just don't think he's more valuable than JG or RB.Speaking of Uncle Jeff, he's an inch shorter and 5 pounds heavier than Rashard Lewis and I'm pretty sure RL played the 4 for Orlando throughout the playoffs. Why can't JG be our Rashard Lewis? Do we even need Millsap if we have a 5 that can actually play D and rebound?

@J.G.seriously, kahn has quickly proved that he is a terrible gm. i like how everybody praised him for getting all these first round picks (rightly), except the praise turned to stunned silence after the draft. everybody watching that draft had to be thinking "really kahn? really?" for reference, check kevin love's twitter page. they should have hired simmons, his argument of "i can't do any worse than those guys" is really gaining steam

i feel like kev, i'm beat my opinion into the ground on this. but one more time: DEFINITELY gortat. i would even "overpay" a bit to get him, just to trump the MLE offers that he's getting elsewhere. he fits perfectly into the need that (stupid) people wanted thabeet to fill, except he's approximately 14326543960 times better than thabeet. granted, he played limited minutes, but when he was on the floor he was an elite rebounder and excellent defender. like royce said, between him and krstic we'd have the most powerful white foregin center combination ever

I'm a bit worried he wants a more glamorous destination than OKC. But he should know that there's something we can offer that neither Dallas nor Houston can: loyalty.

The pressure to compete RIGHT NOW in those cities is so immense, that as soon as Yao went down they're scrambling to replace him. I'm sure Dallas is telling Gortat that they're going to trade Dampier during the season to make him the starter. Well what happens when the next big center prospect comes along and Gortat is on the outside looking in? Not the position I'd want to be in if I were him.

He can be sure that if we sign him, our fans will embrace him, our young players will gel around him, and he'll know that he's a valued member of a growing organization, not the flavor of the week in a big NBA city.