Tory Leader Alison Redford set off a schoolhouse scrap in the Alberta election campaign Wednesday, throwing down the gauntlet at the Wildrose party as...

Danielle Smith and her Wildrose party are surging even farther ahead of Alison Redford's Progressive Conservatives on the campaign trail, but the battle is shaping up to create a north-south provincial split, according to a new poll.

The Leger Marketing survey of 986 voters across Alberta, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal, shows Wildrose has steadily increased its support as the campaign has rolled into its second week.

Among decided voters, Wildrose has 41 per cent of support, while the PCs have 34 per cent. The NDP is polling at 12 per cent, the Liberals at 10 per cent and the Alberta Party at two per cent.

The online survey was conducted between Monday and Wednesday.

The poll found 22 per cent of Albertans say they are undecided. But when asked which party they are leaning toward, undecided voters are almost equally split between the Tories and Wildrose at 18 per cent each, with the other parties well behind.

The poll also shows the Tories continue to lead the Wildrose by a significant margin in Edmonton, but are lagging in Calgary and the rest of the province, where more than half of decided voters are backing the Wildrose.

"If the election splits this way, there will be a real north-south divide in the legislature and that's going to cause some problems," said Leger vice-president Ian Large.

"We certainly see this federally over the years when one party is very, very strong in one region and weak in other regions, those other regions tend to get neglected." said Large.

"It could well exacerbate the Edmonton-Calgary rivalry."

In Edmonton, the Tories lead the Wildrose 37 per cent to 25 per cent, while in Calgary, the Wildrose leads the Tories 47 per cent to 34 per cent.

In the rest of Alberta, 54 per cent of Albertans support the Wildrose compared with 30 per cent for the Tories.

"This doesn't bode well for a representative legislature after April 23," said Large.

"If the vote were tomorrow, it would be a Wildrosedominated government," said Large. "But we're only just halfway through the campaign. There's a lot that can change in 18 days."

The poll, which was ongoing when Smith announced her plan to dole out surplus revenue to Albertans in energy rebate cheques, shows a dramatic increase in support for the Wildrose leader to be premier.

Two months ago, Smith garnered only 14 per cent support when Albertans were asked which leader would make the best premier, while Redford polled at 32 per cent.

Today, Smith leads Redford 29 to 27 in the percentage of support.

"She is proving herself to be a much more credible leader than she was just a couple of months ago," Large added.

The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton. Brian Mason's party has 20 per cent of support among decided voters compared with only seven per cent of support in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

The Liberals garnered 12 per cent support in Edmonton, 11 per cent in Calgary, and just five per cent outside the two cities.

"The Liberals are not making up any ground in Edmonton," Large said.

"Brian Mason's message may be resonating more than the Liberals'."

More than half of Albertans, when asked if they would prefer to have a new government, said yes, and less than three out of 10 Albertans believe the Conservative government should be re-elected.

The poll suggests Smith gets more support from men (35 per cent) than women (22 per cent), while Redford's popularity is consistent among both men (26 per cent) and women (28 per cent).

"What is apparent is the PC vote is crumbling, and it's time for all progressives to support the Alberta Liberal party."

As a non-random Internet survey, the Leger Marketing poll's margin of error is not reported, but Large said a probability sample of this size would result in a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for the regional findings is 5.5 for Edmonton, 5.4 for Calgary, and 5.2 for the rest of Alberta.

Race for votes

"If a provincial election were held today, which political party would you be most likely to vote for?"

Source: Leger Marketing online poll of 986 eligible voters across Alberta, April 2-4. As a non-random online survey, a margin of error isn't reported but a probability sample of this size would results in maximum margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Do you believe the current PC government should be re-elected or would you prefer to have a new government?

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