AFC Championship Game Betting Advice: Keys and Distractions

The AFC Championship Game, like any football game, is a complex set of
circumstances and possibilities that will likely be decided by just a few
key matchups. The difference between the best teams and the worst in the
NFL is really not that big, but the best teams just have the small edge in
a few areas. That's the difference between winning it all and winning a
high pick in the draft. So, when it comes to looking at individual games,
those few key matchups are a good starting point. Here, then, are five of
the biggest keys in the showdown between
heavily-favored New England
and Jacksonville as well as two distractions not worth any real attention:

Patriots offensive line vs. Jaguars pass rush:
Tom Brady isn't as mobile at 40 as he once was - and he never was the most
nimble of guys. The Pats offensive line has done a pretty decent job of
protecting him this year and giving him the time he needs to be dangerous.
It hasn't been perfect, and I'm sure he'd like to pick himself up off the
ground less, but it has been fine. Jacksonville, though, has the most
dangerous defensive front in the league. There are more talented guys out
there, but what makes the Jags so dangerous is that they can attack a QB
from anywhere, and they are very good at adjust and adapting to keep
offensive lines guessing. Pittsburgh saw the Jags' attack twice and never
figured it out. New England has a truly massive advantage at quarterback,
but if they can't protect him then it won't matter. Brady's favorite move
is to step forward into the pocket to avoid outside pressure. The outside
pressure is a given, so if there is no pocket to step into then there could
be real issues.

Jacksonville defense vs. Rob Gronkowski:
Gronkowski is a one-man wrecking crew, and no QB has better chemistry with
a receiver in the league. It's strange, too - Gronk has been doing it for a
long time, everyone knows that the ball is going to him, and yet defenses
are powerless to stop him. Jacksonville has a strong set of linebackers,
and some real talent in the secondary as well. They have the personnel to
handle Gronkowski, but just having the people doesn't mean they will get
the job done. If Gronk has a Gronk-like day then the path for the Patriots
is wide open. If the Jags can contain him, though - and especially if they
can do it while making Brady uncomfortable at the same time - then they
give themselves a fighting chance.

Patriots run defense vs. Leonard Fournette:
Fournette has played Pittsburgh twice and has been a one-man wrecking crew
both times. Last week the offense was flying and Fournette was the jet
engine. He was not hugely effective against the Bills in the wild-card
game, and Jacksonville was lucky to survive. Fournette is the key to this
team's offense right now. Bill Belichick loves nothing more than to force
an opposing offense to be one-dimensional. It seems very likely that they
try to contain Fournette, forcing the fate of the Jags onto the arm of
Bortles. If they can do that then the spread won't be big enough. If
Fournette can assert himself like he did last week, though, then New
England could get the scare that Pittsburgh did.

Distractions

New England drama:
By now we have seen the Patriots play a game after the reports of all their
internal conflict and impending doom. And all that they did was play
arguably their best game of the year. It is not at all worth any effort or
stress to worry about those stories. Nor is it worth worrying about any
coaching drama - both coordinators reportedly have head coaching jobs
sealed up for next year. Belichick only hires pros, though, and he will
tolerate nothing more than a full effort from them regardless of what else
they have going on. Don't let the soap opera the media wants to talk about
drag you in.

The mysterious glove:
Tom Brady's hand was jammed in practice. An x-ray showed nothing, but he
missed practice the next day, and was seen wearing a glove at practice. Now
everyone seems fixated on that glove. Don't be one of those people. Brady
will be just fine, and even if he isn't completely fine he'll find a way to
be ready for this game.