Thursday, October 9, 2014

Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL. We're officially past the 1/3 mark, and it's been quite a ride thus far. Some studs have already fallen and continue to fall, but with each star going down, the opportunity arises for a new star to rise.

Seedog isn't available, so you're stuck with me this week. I'll try to make it worth your while. And with that, here are my Week 6 Sleepers, Studs & Duds..

Doot

Sleepers:

QB E. Manning: I'm generally not big on Eli; I think he's been in the right place at the right time for much of his career, and his rings are a product of solid teams getting hot at the right time. With that said, one of the golden rules of fantasy football is to never be a homer. The same also can apply to being an anti-homer. If the matchup and circumstances makes for a solid play for a player you don't necessarily like, bite the bullet and go with it.
Jennings is doubtful, Beckham is in and showed signs of talent in his debut last week, and this game looks to be a potential shootout. Eli's got the targets: Cruz, Randle, Beckham, Donnell, and I think that' makes for a potential big day for the lesser of the two Mannings.
Backup Plan: M. Ryan, N. Foles

RB B. Oliver: I don't know if he's considered a sleeper (I guess with his price he is), but Oliver CRUSHED an allegedly top defense vs the run in the Jets, and this week he has a favorable matchup against the Raiders. He does come with a caveat though: I'd play him in 50/50 as I'm pretty sure he'll be worth his cost, but he will likely be in damn near a majority of GPP leagues, so he might not be a great play there (unless you're targeting a lot of different, true "sleepers" in a low % of lineups.) He's a solid play here, and is VERY valuable for the price.
Backup Plan: A. Williams, B. Sankey

WR G. Tate: Megatron broke a wheel and looks to be in the shop for awhile, which means Golden Tate becomes a veeeeery good play in both 50/50s and GPPs (although he will be on a decent % of GPP teams).
Backup Plan: J. Maclin, M. Sanu

TE J. Witten: Wait, you're probably thinking, wtf am I thinking? Yes Dallas is playing Seattle, in Seattle, and Yes Witten has yet to score a TD this year. But, did you know, Seattle has the worst defense in the league vs. TEs? Tis true. So as a true sleeper, I think Witten could be a nice sneaky play this week. We shall see...
Backup Plan: O. Daniels

DEF Tenn: Jacksonville is pretty bad, and I think they can make any defense look good. Hence, they're a decent play here.
Backup Plan: Denver

Studs:

QB P. Manning: Things will be all sorts of bass ackwards at the Meadowlands on Sunday as the Jets remain grounded trying go with a ground attack while the Broncos take the air with a deadly aerial assault, George Carlin style!. And leading the charge will be the legendary Peyton Manning. I expect Peyton to go nucking futs this week with 3-4 TDs and easily over 300 yards (possibly in the first half, DOH!) The downside to this, is he might be benched by the 4th quarter. If you're ever going to overpay for a QB, this is the week to do it.
Backup Plan: M. Ryan

RB M. Forte: Not only is a top 5 weekly stud regardless who he's playing, this week he's going against a defense who's been pretty bad against the run. He is almost as sure a bet as Peyton this week, me thinks.
Backup Plan: M. Lynch, L. Bell

WR Jordy Nelson: I saw a funny shirt worn by a hot blonde Packers fan while on my trip up to Lambeau a few weeks ago. "I love it when Jordy goes deep". Yep, folks...it's good to be Jordy. Aaron to Jordy has become one of the deadliest combos over the last half a decade, and I expect this trend to continue versus a mediocre Dolphins secondary.
Backup Plan: Anyone on Denver

TE S. Gronkowski: The Gronk is from the Buffalo area, and always seems to do well there. With Graham on bye, I think Gronk is the #1 TE play this week.
Backup Plan: J. Thomas

DEF San Diego: Oakland is pretty bad, and San Diego has been really damn good. If you're going to pay for a Defense, this is who you pay for.

Duds:

QB C. Newton: Cinny's gotta be pissed after getting whooped in New England last week, and I think they've got a big chip on their shoulder trying to prove that this year they're for real. That could spell bad news for Cam. Sooooo many better options out there; I'm staying away.

RB D. Murray: I'm making this call with extreme hesitance, as I think Murray is a decent play every week. I do think that Dallas will have to take to the air though, which means that Murray may be limited. Or. I could totally be proven wrong. Either way, at his price, I think it's too much of a risk. Proceed with caution.

WR M. Crabtree: I think he's fighting an injury, although SF hasnt officially said as such. I'm gonna stay away from him for now.

TE L. Green: Also nursing an injury, and with Gates getting the looks and catches week after week, Green hasnt emerged as many expected he would. Even though they're playing Oakland, I think he's too much of a reach.

DEF Chicago: Chi has a history of strong defensive play, and might be in many's subconscious as a good-by-default safe pick. Dont trust your gut here. Although Atlanta's been hit or miss, they're at home, and simply put, Chi isnt that great defensively. You can do better. A lot better.