Economic preview: BoE, RBA rate calls and non-farm payrolls

Interest rate calls dominate this week with policy meetings at the Bank of England on Thursday and the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.

The European Central Bank also holds its July policy meeting, but this is a single day affair and there is no interest rate announcement due at the end of it on Wednesday.

And topping off a spectacular week for tier-one data releases is the monthly US employment report – non-farm payrolls – that tell us how many jobs were created in June, average earnings and the rate of unemployment.

UK interest rate call

Since the surprise addition of a third hawk in June's 5-3 vote for no change in monetary policy, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has witnessed a slight cooling in consumer price inflation (CPI).

At the same time, the economy has failed to expand to the degree the Bank estimated in its most recent projections, and growth indicators, such as purchasing managers' indexes, have displayed slowing growth.

So the question is: can the three hawks – Kristin Forbes, Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty – who voted for a quarter-point rate hike at the July meeting, still justify their positions?

Analysts certainly don't believe the economic realities can persuade an even tighter vote at Thursday's meeting.

"Inflation should peak soon, there are no second round effects and manufacturing surveys left the realms of reality some time ago," say analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The textbook says 'hold policy and look through inflation'."

The MPC is not likely to vote for a hike in UK rates, but it will be interesting to see how many members do

by Graham Spooner at The Share Centre

Graham Spooner at The Share Centre says: "The MPC is not likely to vote for a hike in UK rates, but it will be interesting to see how many members do, and what the minutes say about the prospects of an increase in interest rates soon."

ECB and RBA meetings

While the ECB makes no decision on policy at this meeting, market participants will be scanning the tone of language in the central bank's statement for clues on future policy, particularly any reference to tapering its asset purchases.

Andrew Kenningham at Capital Economics believes a timetable for tapering will be revealed at the ECB's October meeting.

He says: "It now seems most likely that the ECB will wind down its asset purchases between January and June 2018, and leave policy rates unchanged until 2019."

Australia's central bank, like the Bank of England, must be wary of low wage growth. CPI, at an annual 2.1%, is well within the central bank's 2-3% target rate, but is unlikely to raise rates at the risk of squeezing household spending.

Currently at a record low of 1.5% most analysts now believe the RBA's cash rate will now be on hold for some time, despite recent talk about the neutral level of rates being around 3.5%. The RBA's decision is on Tuesday.

Friday's payrolls report for July is eagerly awaited and expectations for robust jobs growth are high - Source: Max Pixel

US non-farm payrolls

Friday's payrolls report for July is eagerly awaited, as ever, and following June's addition of 222,000 jobs to the US economy – the fastest pace of job creation since February – expectations are high.

Analysts are not so confident about a repeat of last month's performance, forecasting 180,000 new jobs, and any figure above this projection is likely to lift expectations of at least one more increase in interest rates this year.

Meanwhile, the Fed's mandate to achieve maximum employment is forecast to take another step forward as the unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.3% from 4.4% in June.

Eurozone gross domestic product and CPI

Tuesday's GDP report reveals the preliminary calculations from Eurostat for second-quarter growth in the 19 nations that share the euro currency.

A quarterly growth rate of 0.6% in the first quarter helped push the annualised rate up to 1.9% and economists believe annual growth will push up above 2% in the April-June quarter.

Headline and core inflation have remained relatively steady in recent weeks – at 1.3% and 1.2% respectively – and consumer prices are not expected to have moved much in July.

The ECB downgraded its core inflation forecast in June, citing a stronger euro, and the single currency has gained nearly 3% against the dollar since then. Few expect, therefore, a major move from current levels when the data is published on Monday.

Another weak inflation reading for June adds further pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates on hold

US inflation (Fed style)

As often stated here, when using the level of inflation as an indicator for US monetary policy we should use the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of price activity – personal consumption expenditure.

This recorded US inflation at 1.4% in May. In the previous month it stood at 1.5% and as recently as February it was running at an annual 1.8% – close to the Fed's 2% target rate.

The Fed believes this weakness is "transitory", and given the dollar's 13-month low there should be some impact from imported inflationary pressures beginning to build.

Another weak reading for June adds further pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, depsite robust economic growth.

The best of the rest

Purchasing managers have been busy in recent days preparing their data for PMI releases this week. China kicks off with manufacturing PMI for July on Monday, followed by US Chicago PMI on Tuesday.

Also on Tuesday, are July manufacturing PMIs for the eurozone and US. Also in the US is the more influential Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) index for manufacturing.

UK construction PMI is on Wednesday and European services PMI and US services ISM are on Thursday.

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