Sunday, November 1, 2009

More NY-23 mess

Man NY-23 is really a mess.

Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

-In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.

-58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava's a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.

-The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don't listen to the show.

I am going to swap in a third version of our horse race question for remaining interviews today noting that Scozzafava has suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens. The Hoffman lead is wide enough that I feel comfortable releasing numbers later this evening although there will certainly be a lot of caveats- and we will certainly release tabs by when people were interviewed.

How do you account for the fact that your numbers are so different from Siena's and R2K's? Just a monstrous Dede collapse that all went to Hoffman in the very brief time since those two outfits finished their calls?

re: DavidNYC's comment - what does account for this change. It seems odd that Owens +1 in two separate polls would go to Hoffman +16 without some huge extraneous event, even before Scozzafava withdrew.

I think the difference in methodology is affecting the results. Live interview polls show it close, the IVR poll show Hoffman way up.

I don't think this is a good district to rely on the IVR method, Cook's IVR polls of NY-20 in 2006 were not good, they showed Gillibrand up 11-13 points before the Sweeney domestic violence incident. So Siena and R2K may be more on target.

I'm with Anonymous -- I think these numbers just show an extension of the trend that was already clearly occurring.

Of course, these are unweighted numbers. That might be worth mentioning again.

For what its worth, I don't think Scozza's endorsement will do anything other than solidify the conservative majority to support Hoffman; after all, she just proved she's a liberal which is what she's spent the last month trying to say she isn't.

Yesterday when chubby Dede dropped out she was a proud Republican. Today she receives a call from the White House and then endorses a lib. This is an amateur and a vote that could not be counted on. She will never be heard from again. My only question is, why did it take so long.

Lonewacko, your proposed question is about as bad as it gets. You should apply for a position with the NYT.

If you truly care to know the electorate's opinion on any stated position, 'How do you feel about Hoffman's stated position X?', where X is a brief, neutral summary of the position is the only way for any responsible pollster to go.

Sour grapes? a RINO skinned? Or did Joey Plugs open up the ol' company checkbook and make a Specter-style bargain for Scozzafava, in order to save the Dear Leader from a humiliation in this high profile contest?

hello ,Yesterday when chubby Dede dropped out she was a proud Republican. Today she receives a call from the White House and then endorses a lib. This is an amateur and a vote that could not be counted on. She will never be heard from again. My only question is, why did it take so long.