Nevada Republicans see gain in losing John Ensign
By: David Catanese and Molly Ball March 7, 2011 06:17 PM EDT

The departure of Republican Sen. John Ensign — along with the considerable baggage of an affair and an ongoing Senate ethics inquiry — enhances Republican chances of holding his Nevada Senate seat and could allow the party to avoid a messy primary fight.

“I think he did it for his family, but it also benefits the party,” said Nevada GOP consultant Ryan Erwin. “Ensign doing this early is, in many ways, a favor to the party because it allows time to sort it out.”

At a news conference in Las Vegas on Monday, Ensign, 52, said he didn’t want to put his family through what would have been a brutal rehashing of the history of his affair with a former top aide’s wife.

“I do not want to put my family, those that I care about, or this state, through what would be a very ugly campaign that would ultimately cause a great deal more pain than has already been felt as a result of my actions,” he said, standing beside his wife and children. “At this point in my life, I have to put my family first.”

But the political writing was already on the wall — in the form of polling numbers that showed him getting trounced in a GOP primary as well as an ongoing Senate ethics inquiry delving into the actions he took to minimize the fallout.

Nevada GOP national committeewoman Heidi Smith said that while Ensign made a valiant effort at rehabilitating himself, his retirement decision is the result of the cool reception he was receiving around the state during a string of town hall meetings.

“The response has not been tremendously warm, I think that’s what told him what to do,” said Smith. “It will make it easier. There are some people who can get forgiven and move on. He’s tried to come back, and it just isn’t there.”

Republicans appear to be placing their bets on third-term Rep. Dean Heller, who racked up 63 percent of the vote last year and outperformed both Sen. Harry Reid and Sharron Angle in critical Washoe County.

Heller’s campaign team has already polled the race and some Republicans expect him to launch a campaign in the coming days.

On Monday, the congressman issued only a three-line statement that did not touch on his own aspirations.

“This must have been a very difficult decision for John to make. He and his family have been through a lot. Lynne and I wish them the very best,” Heller said.

While Republicans see Heller as their strongest potential nominee, some doubt his fire in the belly after he dithered for months, then decided against a 2010 run against Reid. A former three-term secretary of state, the blond Mormon with a laid-back demeanor has run statewide, but not since 2002. Democrats believe he’d have to reintroduce himself to the bulk of the state’s voters and would have a hard time appealing to Hispanics considering the hard line he’s taken on immigration.

Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki is also considering entering the contest, but Erwin, who serves as his consultant told POLITICO he would be “mildly surprised” if both Heller and Krolicki were to run because they’re friends.

“If you can get Heller or Krolicki through a primary, either one of those candidates is going to be incredibly difficult for Democrats to beat,” he said.

The other wild card is Angle, who would likely have a difficult time winning a two-way primary but could cause establishment Republicans considerable heartburn even by simply testing the waters. Angle, who lost last November to Reid, did not return a call for comment.

While the party’s Senate Campaign Committee will continue to target the seat as a priority, Democrats acknowledged that Ensign’s exit hurts their chances somewhat by eliminating what appeared to be a clash between Heller and Ensign.

“Nobody is surprised [that Ensign’s not running], but we’re a little upset it didn’t drag on a little longer,” said one national Democratic source. Numerous other Democrats echoed that sentiment.

“John Ensign being in the race was going to create a contentious primary for Republicans,” said Dan Hart, a Las Vegas Democratic consultant who’s not affiliated with any of the candidates currently considering the race. “But I’m not sure they’ve avoided that just yet.”

Hart said Ensign’s retirement announcement could force the hand of Democrats who were taking their time in looking at the race.

“This is going to cause an acceleration of decision-making on the Democratic side by necessity,” he said. As long as Ensign was still in and Heller hung back, “Democrats had the luxury of waiting to see how the field was forming.”

The most likely Democratic candidate is Rep. Shelley Berkley, who since 1998 has represented a heavily Democratic urban Las Vegas district that includes the Las Vegas Strip. She has been openly debating running for Senate for months.

Berkley said in an interview Monday that Ensign made “the right decision” for his family and the state.

She said his announcement won’t affect her time frame for deciding whether to run — she plans to make a decision in “very early summer.”

“Whether or not I run for Senate is not dependent on who will be my opponent,” she said. “I’m taking time, traveling up [to northern Nevada], meeting with different groups to seek their advice and counsel. … On my side of the aisle, everybody has been very gracious and told me they will give me the time and space I need to make this decision.”

Democrats don’t believe she would face a serious primary challenge if she runs, but they have been talking to other potential candidates in case she doesn’t.

Guy Cecil, executive director of the DSCC, traveled to Nevada last month and met with three potential backup candidates in case Berkley decides not to run: Secretary of State Ross Miller, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and Treasurer Kate Marshall. A committee source said Miller and Masto are considered viable fallbacks.

Miller said Monday he would defer to Berkley. “So long as she’s interested in running, this race doesn’t make sense for me to explore,” he said. “She’s going to make the decision on her own terms whether she’s a viable candidate for that race.”

While Berkley is popular with the Democratic base, particularly in the Democratic stronghold of Southern Nevada that is home to 70 percent of the state’s population, some have doubts about her ability to appeal to voters in the rest of the state.

A formidable fundraiser, the Jewish congresswoman is liberal on social issues but hawkish on foreign policy, including Israel and the Iraq war. She is a flamboyant presence — a flashy dresser who has talked openly about her plastic surgery and speaks with a pronounced East Coast Jewish accent.

Some Nevada Democrats express doubts Berkley could either appeal to voters in rural and Northern Nevada, or run up the score enough in Southern Nevada that she can afford to lose the rest of the state.

“She certainly has a core of supporters in her district in Las Vegas, but how does that support export?” said Hart. “The question that is out there is: Can she win a statewide election?”

President Barack Obama won Nevada by 12 points in 2008 and the state is expected to be contested by both parties in 2012. In addition, Democrats say the formidable Democratic turnout machine that powered Reid’s upset 2010 reelection victory remains active.

A survey conducted in January by the Democratic robo-pollster Public Policy Polling found Heller besting all Democrats tested in hypothetical matchups. He would beat Berkley 51 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll.

Berkley is planning to conduct her own polling to test her chances, with pollster Mark Mellman preparing to go into the field soon, she said.