Analysis: What's Kim Jong Un up to?

By Joe Sterling, CNN

Updated 0925 GMT (1725 HKT) March 28, 2013

Kim Jong Un and North Korea's military55 photos

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with North Korea's first female fighter jet pilots in this undated photo released by the country's state media on Monday, June 22. He called the women "heroes of Korea" and "flowers of the sky."

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Kim stands on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu in North Korea in a photo taken by North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun on April 18 and released the next day by South Korean news agency Yonhap. Kim scaled the country's highest mountain, North Korean state-run media reported, arriving at the summit to tell soldiers that the hike provides mental energy more powerful than nuclear weapons.

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Kim Jong Un, center, poses with soldiers on the snow-covered top of Mount Paektu in an April 18 photo released by South Korean news agency Yonhap.

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Kim visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, North Korea, on April 15 to celebrate the 103rd birth anniversary of his grandfather, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.

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Kim inspects a drill for seizing an island at an undisclosed location in North Korea in an undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on February 21.

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Kim speaks during a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this photo released February 19 by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

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A picture released by the North Korean Central News Agency shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appearing without his cane at an event with military commanders in Pyongyang on Tuesday, November 4. Kim, who recently disappeared from public view for about six weeks, had a cyst removed from his right ankle, a lawmaker told CNN.

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Kim is seen walking with a cane in this image released Thursday, October 30, by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

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Kim sits in the pilot's seat of a fighter jet during the inspection.

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This undated photo, released Tuesday, October 14, by the KCNA, shows Kim inspecting a housing complex in Pyongyang, North Korea. International speculation about Kim went into overdrive after he failed to attend events on Friday, October 10, the 65th anniversary of the Workers' Party. He hadn't been seen in public since he reportedly attended a concert with his wife on September 3.

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A picture released by the KCNA shows Kim and his wife watching a performance by the Moranbong Band on Wednesday, September 3, in Pyongyang.

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Kim tours a front-line military unit in this image released Wednesday, July 16, by the KCNA.

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Kim poses for a photo as he oversees a tactical rocket-firing drill in June.

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Kim watches a tactical rocket-firing drill in June.

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A North Korean soldier patrols the bank of the Yalu River, which separates the North Korean town of Sinuiju from the Chinese border town of Dandong, on Saturday, April 26.

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In this photo released Thursday, April 24, by the Korean Central News Agency, Kim smiles with female soldiers after inspecting a rocket-launching drill at an undisclosed location.

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A picture released Tuesday, March 18, by the KCNA shows Kim attending a shooting practice at a military academy in Pyongyang.

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A North Korean soldier uses binoculars on Thursday, February 6, to look at South Korea from the border village of Panmunjom, which has separated the two Koreas since the Korean War.

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A North Korean soldier kicks a pole along the banks of the Yalu River on Tuesday, February 4.

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A photo released by the KCNA on Thursday, January 23, shows the North Korean leader inspecting an army unit during a winter drill.

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Kim inspects the command of an army unit in this undated photo released Sunday, January 12, by the KCNA.

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Kim visits an army unit in this undated photo.

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Kim inspects a military factory in this undated picture released by the KCNA in May 2013.

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Kim visits the Ministry of People's Security in 2013 as part of the country's May Day celebrations.

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A North Korean soldier, near Sinuiju, gestures to stop photographers from taking photos in April 2013.

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North Korean soldiers patrol near the Yalu River in April 2013.

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Kim is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S."

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Kim works during a briefing in this undated photo.

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In this KCNA photo, Kim inspects naval drills at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast in March 2013.

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Kim, with North Korean soldiers, makes his way to an observation post in March 2013.

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Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment, near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island, in March 2013.

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Kim is greeted by a soldier's family as he inspects the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment in March 2013.

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Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment, also near Taeyonphyong Island, in March 2013.

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Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment in March 2013.

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Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location in March 2013.

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In a photo released by the official North Korean news agency in December 2012, Kim celebrates a rocket's launch with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang.

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Kim, center, poses in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency in November 2012.

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Kim visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released in July 2012 by the KCNA.

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A crowd watches as statues of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center in April 2012.

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In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket that broke apart and fell into the sea. Here, the UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.

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– A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.

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A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang in April 2012.

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A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between the Pyongyang and North Pyongan provinces in April 2012.

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A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport in May 2001.

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Story highlights

Is the rhetoric meant to boost the North Korean leader's appeal?

He thrives on political theater

Will he be adventurous or cautious?

He's still an "unknown quantity"

North Korea's saber rattling again shook the world Wednesday. Pyongyang vowed to shut down a key military hotline with South Korea.

It was another day of hostile, over-the-top rhetoric from the reclusive, impoverished nation led by Kim Jong Un.

But the recent missile and nuclear tests, and the annulment of the 1953 Korean War armistice are raising questions about the young leader.

Is his behavior erratic or staged? Is he competent enough to run a government?

Pyongyang watchers, reading the news and the tea leaves, say the latest hot air wafting over the Korean Peninsula could reflect an effort to prop up appeal and allegiance for Kim.

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Christopher Hill, a career U.S. diplomat, said the "prolonged, rather intense" flurry of tough talk out of Pyongyang shouldn't be ignored, but it could be directed to the citizenry itself.

"I think there's a big element of domestic North Korean politics, if one can understand that concept, where clearly Kim Jong Un is not being well received," Hill told CNN.

"I think they are trying to kind of boost his status to some sort of wartime leader."

Is this about Kim trying to consolidate power?

The UK-based Independent newspaper said Kim is working "to shore up his position."

"Not only must the new 'supreme leader' see off challengers from within North Korea's perhaps skeptical military; he must also prove to his brutalized, often starving, people that threats from 'foreign imperialists' must take precedence over, say, early promises of improved living conditions.

"What better than to conduct a nuclear test, and then use the resulting slap on the wrist from the international community as an excuse to ready the troops, tear up the non-aggression pact with Seoul and release incendiary propaganda about, for example, Barack Obama perishing in a nuclear onslaught?"

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"Much of his behavior may be political theater aimed at convincing his own people that the young general is comfortably in charge, but it is also a contrast with his father's ruling style," the authors say.

"Kim Jong Il paid no attention to the public aspect of ruling, whereas his son's visibility and embrace of popular culture appears to be aimed at convincing North Koreans that changes may actually occur under him."

"I don't recall he ever went this far in terms of the pace and scope of the rhetoric. Threatening to launch nukes directly against the United States and South Korea confirms what a lot of people have been saying, which is we are dealing with someone new," the official added.

Another senior administration official said Kim's youth and education abroad offered promise for many North Korea watchers that he would be more willing to engage with the West.

"Unfortunately, he is following the example of his father and grandfather pretty closely," the official said. "It's hard to be optimistic."

His grandfather, Kim Il Sung, was the founding leader of North Korea.

Where will he go beyond political theater?

Kang and Cha said the question that should be asked about Kim is whether he is turning out to be adventurous or cautious.

A risk-taking leader "may or may not be good for North Korea and its relations with the outside world," they say. Any major changes in foreign policy would bring "enormous hazards." Domestic, economic and social reforms also involve risks, they said.

"If Kim moves beyond the political theater of the past 60 years -- chest-thumping, name-calling, threatening to turn Seoul into a 'sea of fire' -- and actually risks a major military strike against South Korea or even the United States, he is putting his own neck, as well as his country's, on the line," they wrote.

What if Kim plays it safe?

"A cautious Kim, who simply pursues the status quo, would mean that North Korean policy will muddle along, with no real change to the frustrating, dangerous, decades-long game of brinksmanship," they said.

What we don't know about Kim

Fred Kaplan, writing in Slate, said Kim Jong Il was schooled to take the reins of power. Kim Jong Un, however, "is still an unknown quantity."

Kim Jong Un "had no political or military experience before taking putative control of the army, the party, and the nation." The young leader "had little time to learn anything; his behavior is at best hard to read, and at times bewildering."

Kaplan cites an incident last year. President Obama agreed to provide North Koreans with food aid if they suspended missile and nuclear tests. But Kim embarked on a missile test before the food arrived. He touted the act after Obama canceled the food aid and got the U.N. Security Council to condemn the North Korean action.

He compares Kim Jong Un to his father and grandfather.

Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung "would make a threat, and wait for the enemy (the United States, South Korea, the U.N., or some combination of the above) to offer a bribe in exchange for their forbearance. They would take the bribe -- and they'd forbear," Kaplan writes.

"But this new Kim took the promise of a bribe -- then went ahead and carried out the threat anyway, even before the payment, in this case desperately needed food, came through. What the hell?"

People now want to know Kim "knows how to play his family's game," Kaplan said.

"It's always been an odious game, but in the old days, when the father and grandfather were around, it would end with peace, at least for a while, if the west played along," he said.