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Is Corinthian Colleges' Stock a Bargain by the Numbers?

Fri, 24/12/2010 - 07:19 by Anand Chokkavelu

Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

The current price multiples

The consistency of past earnings and cash flow

How much growth we can expect

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Corinthian Colleges(Nasdaq: COCO) might be.

The current price multiplesFirst, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.

Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.

Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.

Corinthian Colleges has a P/E ratio of 2.6 and an EV/FCF ratio of 18.2 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Corinthian Colleges has a P/E ratio of 6.1 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 11.7.

A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.

Corinthian Colleges has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.

Numerically, we've seen how Corinthian Colleges's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...

The consistency of past earnings and cash flowAn ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.

In the past five years, Corinthian Colleges's net income margin has ranged from 0.8% to 7.8%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -4.7% to 14.2%.

How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

Additionally, over the last five years, Corinthian Colleges has tallied up five years of positive earnings and three years of positive free cash flow.

Next, let's figure out...

How much growth we can expectAnalysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.

Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Corinthian Colleges has put up past EPS growth rates of 24.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 7.6%.

Here's how Corinthian Colleges compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

The bottom line

The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Corinthian Colleges are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.

The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 2.6 P/E ratio.

Here's a case of the numbers looking too good to be true. These low earnings and cash flow multiples are the result of the specter of government intervention in the for-profit education space. Still, this seems like the kind of opportunity that rewards careful study. I'll be researching further.

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