Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Kool-Aid drinking Mizzou fans be warned: You won’t like what you are about to read. After watching Chase Daniel struggle in the fourth quarter on Saturday against OSU, I started thinking about some of his other clutch (or not-so-clutch) performances. There’s no doubt that Chase Daniel is a legit Heisman contender, a tremendous quarterback, and one of Mizzou’s all-time greats. But for all of his accomplishments, Chase has sometimes struggled to perform when the chips are down. By my count, Mizzou is 4-6 in close games in which Chase Daniel has started, with four of those being “artificially” close games where the defense gave up a bunch of points late in the game. That means the Tigers are 1-5 under Daniel in closely contested nail-biters. This is not an indictment, just an observation. Interpret it as you will.

When Chase Daniel is on his game and given time to throw, he is one of the best quarterbacks you will ever see. The numbers are actually less gaudy than I expected, but two factors account for that. First, Chase spent a lot of time on the bench in the fourth quarter (and sometimes the third quarter) of these games. Second, a few of these games (i.e. Texas Tech ’07, Arkansas ’08) were dominating rushing performances because the defense chose to take away the passing game at the expense of giving the running backs a field day. Bottom line is that these numbers prove what we all know: Chase Daniel is a really good QB. These games were blowouts because Chase played well – he didn’t play well because they were blowouts. The key seems to be getting Chase off to a good start and avoiding early sacks or turnovers that might get him rattled.

If you’ve been following Mizzou during the Chase Daniel Era, you know exactly how this story goes. The offense builds a huge lead in the second half, only to see the defense collapse late in the game. Usually the Tigers hold on (thanks largely to timely plays by Chase on offense), but it came back to bite them in the 2006 Sun Bowl when the Tigers blew a double-digit lead in the second half. As the numbers show, Chase is typically brilliant in these games.

Here’s what has begun to concern me about Chase. He is an amazing quarterback who truly shines when things are going his way. The question is what happens when faced with adversity. The numbers show that his game slips when the chips are down in a close game. The anecdotal evidence bears this out. Chase has only led one game-winning or game-tying fourth quarter drive in his career, and that was his freshman year, when he came in for an injured Brad Smith against IowaState. In games where the action went back and forth throughout, Chase has just one win. Games are obviously won and lost by teams, not individuals, but Saturday’s loss to OSU got me thinking about how Chase performs in the clutch. Against Texas A&M in 2006, the Tigers had two fourth quarter possessions in Aggie territory, but failed to score the go-ahead touchdown. In 2006, Daniel nearly led a game-winning drive that was denied by the infamous “holding” call. Most recently, Chase threw two fourth quarter interceptions against the Cowboys on Saturday that ended Mizzou’s chances to win the game. Then there are the two Oklahoma games from 2007. In both games, Chase was rattled by the OU rush, leading to untimely turnovers when the game was hanging in the balance. The moral of the story is that while Chase is a great quarterback, teams can beat Mizzou if their offense keeps up the scoring pace and their defense gets under Chase’s skin. That doesn’t make Chase a bad quarterback, but it seems to be the only way to beat the Tigers.

Blowout losses (more than 10 points)

Record: 0-2

List: Oklahoma ’06 (10-26), Nebraska ’06 (20-34)

Stats: 528 yards, 2 TDs, 5 INTs

Per game: 264 yds/game, 1 TD/game, 2.5 INTs/game

What do these numbers mean?

There’s not too much to learn here. You can’t really tell if Mizzou got blown out because Chase didn’t play well, or if Chase didn’t play well because Mizzou got blown out. It’s only happened twice in his career, and Mizzou was pretty clearly outclassed in both games. Bottom line is still the same, though: If you can stop Chase Daniel, you stop Mizzou.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

-Jeremy Maclin snatched momentum away from the Illini with a 99-yard kick-off return to put the Tigers back in front just 13 seconds after falling behind. I’m not sure Mizzou has ever had a game-breaker like Maclin and it’s scary to think what could happen if he’s knocked out of a crucial game (more on this later).

-On a rough day for the defense, Sean Witherspoon stepped up and single-handedly sealed the win for the Tigers with two huge interceptions.

-With the spotlight on him in his first college game, Elvis Fisher delivered in a big way at left tackle. He kept Chase Daniel clean all afternoon (the vaunted Illini D-line never put much pressure on the QB, and the one sack late was a coverage sack). Perhaps Fisher’s best effort was on Derrick Washington’s second touchdown run, where he opened up the whole on the left side, then sprinted downfield and knocked Vontae Davis out of the play.

-Speaking of Washington, he was incredible in his debut, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry and scoring twice. His second touchdown run – thanks to some poor tacking by the Illini – made him look like Earl Campbell.

-Daniel turned in a good performance that would be great for most other quarterbacks. Throwing for 314 yards and 3 TDs is a good way to start off the Heisman campaign.

-Chase Coffman also left his mark on the game with more than 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. The play everyone will remember came early in the second half, when he juked past two defenders, jumped over a third, and carried a host of tacklers for 10 more yards. If he’s not an All-American, the voters simply are not paying attention.

-Also worthy of note: Styker Sulak was all over the field, notching 3 huge sacks and blocking an extra point... Jeff Wolfert nailed a career-long 51-yard field goal and was excellent on kickoffs... Tommy Saunders not only caught two touchdowns, but also wrangled three bad snaps as the holder on special teams and filled in admirably as a punt returner.

The Bad

-Daniel’s one mistake was a big one. He failed to look before throwing a screen pass, which ended up in the arms of an Illinois defender, who took it to the house.

-Injuries seemed to plague the Tigers on Saturday. I – along with every other Tiger fan – was holding my breath when Maclin went to the locker room. Luckily he will be back soon. The news is not so good for Steve Redmond, who is lost for the season. There was another scary moment when Carl Gettis – the lone bright spot in the Mizzou secondary – went down with an injury, but he appeared to be okay.

-We’ve come to expect such great things from William Moore that we are disappointed when he doesn’t completely dominate a game. He still led the team in tackles and was apparently limited by an injury... so hopefully we’ll see him have a greater impact on games going forward.

-Fourth and inches. I’m not saying we have to have a fullback. I’m not even saying we have to get under center. But why in the world do we insist on running a QB draw with Chase when everyone in the world knows it is coming? At least put a running back in there to disguise it or something. Frustrating.

The Ugly

-There’s no getting around it... Mizzou’s secondary played an ugly game on Saturday. Giving up 5 touchdown passes to anyone is bad. Giving up 5 touchdown passes to Juice Williams is just ridiculous, regardless of how much time he spent with Donovan McNabb this offseason (Did you know he spent a week with him? Did you?). I’m not sure whether the blame goes to the coaches or the players or both, but it better be sorted out by the time conference play arrives.

Play of the Game

There are plenty to choose from here – Spoon’s pick-6, Washington’s incredible run, Coffman’s hurdle – but the play of the day was clearly Maclin’s kick-off return. The Illini had all the momentum at that point, but Maclin took it all away in just 13 seconds. Kudos also to Earl Goldsmith for throwing two great blocks on the play.

Hit of the Game

Surprise, surprise. The winner here was not Sulak, Moore, Spoon, or any of the other heavy hitters on defense. Instead, it was 5’5” Tremane Vaughn, who laid a serious blow on an Illinois receiver late in the second half.

Seen and Heard in the Stands

Commissioner and Co. showed up in the ESPN broadcast after Mizzou’s first touchdown if you look very carefully... No near-fights with Illini fans this year, which was nice... I didn’t hear any B-C-S chants from the Illini. I wonder why... Crowd looked to be about 55-45 in favor of the Tigers, but there were a surprising number of empty seats in the upper deck... I received a text message and two voicemails telling me that Maclin’s injury was just a sprain. You guys know me too well; we were freaking out... Gold Rush was about 75 percent effective, but not nearly as good as Nebraska last year... Right before the opening play of the second drive, Born-a-tiger called a fake to Maclin on the end around, followed by a hand-off to Washington off the right side. The man knows his Tigers because that’s exactly what Mizzou did, gaining about 20 yards...

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Well, it’s almost time to get the 2008 season underway. This year’s opener is huge because it will set the tone for the season. Win, and the Tigers are set up for a run at the national title (there’s something I never thought I’d be writing without sarcasm). Lose, and there will be talking heads all over the country lining up to say 2007 was a fluke. We can still have a great season with a loss on Saturday, but if we want a season for the record books, the Tigers need a win.

That being said, I have the utmost faith in Coach Pinkel’s ability to get his guys ready for this game. After all, as important as this game is, the Tigers have shown repeatedly over the last year that they can win big games. You can’t tell me this is any bigger than kU last year and we know how that ended up. You also have to like the senior leadership on this team. Do you really think Chase and WilyMo will let these guys lose focus? Bottom line, they’ll be ready.

But what about Illinois? They don’t have the same expectations, but they also have no reason to fear the Tigers. Mizzou never connected with a knockout punch last year when they were up big and the Illini climbed right back into it. They know (think?) they can play with the Tigers, and confidence is huge this early in the season. That’s why I the game will be a lot closer than most Tiger fans (and the Vegas oddsmakers) seem to think.

Tigers to Watch:

We know what to expect from guys like Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman, Jeremy Maclin, William Moore, Jeff Wulfert, etc. So that’s not where I’ll be watching. Like so many other Mizzou fans, I’ll have my eyes trained on the left side of the offensive line to start the game. If Elvis Fisher can get the job done on the left side, it could be an easy win for the Tigers. But if the D-line can get pressure on Daniel’s blind side, causing turnovers, etc., it could get messy.

I’m also excited to see which of the freshman receivers leaves his mark on the game. Jerrell Jackson has been making dazzling plays in practice, and Andrew Jones should see some time at TE. But I’m sure Wes Kemp will want to get in there and do his best Jeremy Maclin impression by putting on a show in his hometown. Brad Smith also had his coming out party at the Dome. If one of these freshmen can make a similar first impression, it will be a long day for the Illinois secondary.

Illini to Watch

Everyone is going to talk about Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn. But I’m not really worried about either of them. Mizzou tends to handle mobile quarterbacks pretty well, and Benn can only do so much with Juice throwing him one-hoppers. I’ll be watching junior running back Daniel Dufrene to see if he can step into the big shoes left by Rashard Mendenhall. Dufrene had 58 yards in last year’s game on only six carries. The Tigers have to slow him down to win.

The marquis player on the other side of the ball is Vontae Davis at cornerback. Tiger fans might remember Davis from his blocked punt in last year’s contest. He will, of course, be matched up against Maclin. I’m sure Davis is great, but I’m amused by the number of Illinois fans who think Davis simply cancels out Maclin. You can’t take Maclin out of the game with single coverage, and I hope the Illinois coaches are dumb enough to try. That’s not an insult to Davis, who is a very good DB... but Mizzou just does too much with Maclin for one guy to stop him. I’ll say this though... if Davis is able to man up Maclin all day and shut him down, he’s probably the best DB in the country. The bad news for Illinois: Last time I checked, we have more than one receiver. Who’s covering the rest of them?

Keys to the Game:

1. Battle in the trenches: I really think this game will be won or lost in the trenches. Oklahoma showed last year that the only way to stop Mizzou’s offense is to get pressure with the front four. The Illini D-line is not nearly as good as OU, but they are talented and going up against a somewhat inexperienced MU offensive line. If they can pressure Chase, they’ve got a chance. On the flip side, I’ve heard that Illinois is going to blitz a lot. Let’s hope so, Tiger fans. They might get to Chase a couple times, but he’ll also burn them repeatedly. If you are Illinois, the pressure has to come up front.

2. Mizzou getting on top early: I haven’t seen the Illini this year (obviously), but I have to assume that they are a similar team – which means they aren’t really built to come from behind. On the flipside, they have the ability to grind out the clock with Juice and Dufrene if they get a lead. While I don’t expect the Tigers to fold under the pressure, things could get interesting if Illinois takes the lead late in the game. But if Mizzou gets ahead by a couple scores early, I think this one could be over. Do you really see Juice Williams throwing it all over the field and leading them to victory? I don’t. But I know you’re all thinking, “Uh, what about last year?” That brings me to point 3...

3. Killer instinct: For years, Pinkel’s teams didn’t have it at all (see: the entire 2004 season). Last year, they showed it in flashes, pummeling Nebraska and Arkansas. But for every 41-6, there was a game where the Tigers were up big in the second half and then seemed to stop playing. That’s why MU fans have a completely different view of the Illinois and kU games last year than our opponents. We remember being up big and we remember winning. We conveniently forget that empty feeling we all got when we thought it might slip away. Hopefully the Tigers have learned their lesson. I don’t want Pinkel to worry about running up the score... and that goes for the whole season. If we’re up 21, make it 28.... make it 35. I would much rather defend the Tigers against critics who say we run up the score than blow a 24-point lead in the second half.

Prediction:

Last season, the Tigers only scored fewer than 30 points once. I don’t see it happening on Saturday, and I think that’s the only way Illinois wins it. Mizzou 34, Illinois 27.

Pop quiz:

Can you name the only two Tiger starters who are not from Missouri or Texas?

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

In anticipation of bringing back The Zou after a year and a half hiatus, I was reading through some of the old posts. I stumbled across this entry from April 13, 2006, outlining the “simple truths” of being a Mizzou fan. It reminded me just how much the perception of Mizzou athletics has changed thanks to the unforgettable 2007 season. The question is, what does the future hold? Mizzou fans are wired to wait for the other shoe to drop – and with good reason: Fifth Down, Flea Kicker, Tyus Edney, etc. But should we? Let’s a take a look back at those “truths”.

If Mizzou has a top 25 preseason team and a consensus All-American, the team WILL fall apart and the player WILL underachieve or get injured.

Part of what made last season so remarkable is that no one outside of Tiger Nation saw it coming. There were no accolades (with the possible exception of Martin Rucker) and no preseason ranking, despite being picked to win the Big XII North. With a Top-10 preseason ranking and preseason All-Americans in Maclin and Willy Mo, this year will really test this truth. But don’t you trust this group of Tigers a lot more than the past?

If Mizzou is the front-runner for a top-flight recruit, he WILL change his mind.

This is simply not true any more – at least in football. Now we’re taking recruits from other schools (Blaine Gabbert, Wes Kemp, etc.). I think the whole “we don’t recruit, we select” thing is WAY over the top at this point, but the culture has definitely changed. It’s changed in basketball too: We’re not even in the running for big recruits. Sigh.

If there is an important personnel decision to made, the athletic department WILL handle it poorly.

There hasn’t been a big hire since Anderson, so it’s hard to say at this point. The closest example is how they handled all the suspensions of the basketball team last year. In my opinion, it was a joke. A bunch of guys are involved in the same incident, but the only one who gets kicked off the team is the one who is injured and can’t play? It just made us look stupid. But, I will give credit where credit is due... Alden was right when he decided to hold onto Pinkel.

No matter how badly the revenue sports perform, a non-revenue sport WILL accomplish something great to keep Alden looking good.

This is only partly true. The non-revenue sports are still performing at a high level... but Alden emerged from last year’s football season looking like a genius (except for that whole bowl game fiasco).

Gary Pinkel WILL struggle against against mediocre teams from kansas, but win a big game or two late in the season to make fans forget that his team has underachieved.

This is also not true anymore. Pinkel has crushed kU and K-State in each of the last two seasons. He’s also gotten the monkey off his back by winning at Colorado and other road venues. Next up is winning at Nebraska for the first time since 1978. Now if only we can beat Oklahoma...

The basketball team WILL inexplicably win a couple big games in the middle of the season, tricking Mizzou fans into believing that it has finally turned the corner.

This is still true, but Mizzou fans stopped falling for it a couple years ago. Really, after Mizzou blew out Texas last year, did anyone think they could compete in the Big XII? I sure didn’t. I do think Anderson will get it turned around eventually... I just hope there are some fans left by the time he does.

Bottom line: We WILL be a second-tier athletic program until the problems are fixed… and that means we need change in the athletic department.

This is an interesting point. On one hand, we still have not won a Big XII title in a major sport. We haven’t won a national championship since the 1950s. But yet... something feels different. Mizzou is on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Chase, Maclin and Co. are on the front page of every college football Web site. Last year’s MU-kU game was one of the highest rated games ever.

In 2006, I wrote “[M]any Mizzou fans seem to have a false sense of where Mizzou fits in the national consciousness . . . . They expect national titles, even though they have no reason to. Then, when the teams inevitably fall short, they get upset. They say people should be fired. They tear apart 19-year-old kids on the Internet. They say we are cursed. But maybe the only curse we have is a fan base with unreasonable expectations.” Well, just two years later, Mizzou football is firmly planted in the national consciousness. And those national championship aspirations? They’re looking a bit more reasonable these days. It’s amazing how quickly things can change. Let’s just hope it continues.

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

In case anyone ever checks in on our little site, I thought I would let you know that we've been on a bit of a hiatus for more than a year while I finished up law school and started studying for the bar. Look for a new and improved Zou to return in the fall when I get some free time... at least until I have to start a real job.