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Topic: CA Proposition 8 exit polling (Read 20569 times)

ust curious, if desegregation was put to popular vote, would it have passed? If the laws prohibiting interracial marriage were put to popular vote, would they have passed?

Civil rights issues have routinely been decided by the courts, rather than popular vote.

I have to agree with JK on this. The courts are a constitutional check and this would be, sadly, an even more ass backward country if the courts didn't take the reigns on civil rights from a constitutional perspective. The courts were set up to prevent "mob rule."

On a side note, I am not at all shocked by this result. Give it another few years and another ballot initiative will come up changing the Cali constitution and there wil be more on our side to pass it. We are on the cusp. Just look at how the youth vote voted "NO" in huge margins. It's a setback, but we'll get there sonner than we think.

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"Get your medical advice from Doctors or medical professionals who you trust and know your history."

"Beware of the fortune teller doom and gloomers who seek to bring you down and are only looking for company, purpose and validation - not your best physical/mental interests."

"You know you all are saying that this is incurable. When the real thing you should be saying is it's not curable at the present time' because as we know, the great strides we've made in medicine." - Elizabeth Edwards

I'm not certain if anyone has already posted this, but a cursory search didn't reveal so. If I am wrong, my apologies for the duplication.

I think it is quite important that we see where the money has come from:

We present the Californians Against Hate Dishonor Roll. We want the country to know who is funding the Yes on Proposition 8 campaign to take away marriage equality in California. So right up until the November 4th election, we will post all major donors on our web site. These are all donors who gave $5000.00 and over, many way over! We've taken public information from the California Secretary of Stateís Office and added telephone numbers and web sites when available. We also included commentary on some of the more interesting and controversial donors. Individuals and businesses have given a vast amount of money to take away are our recently attained freedom to marry in California, and we want you to know who they are.

I'm Sorry, Epidemiology reports in California and probably the rest of the country show, the highest risk for new infections of HIV to be:1. monogamously married women, over 40, with no drug usage claimed2. Hispanic men and women3. Afro-American men4. Gay men

This report is available through the Department of Health in any county and the trending has not varied for several years. Gay men are not the biggest affected group and haven't been for quite some time Have the best dayMichael (former Commissioner on the Sonoma county Commission on AIDS)

Last night there were over a 1,000 people at a candlelight vigil in the midtown area of Sacramento and at the capitol there were about 400 circling half way around the capitol building in a peaceful demonstration. There were a wonderful mix of straight, lesbian and gay couples and families. I helped to remind people not to react to the Yes on 8 people that had gathered to intimidate us.

The chants of WE Won! We won! and the occasional "You all are going to Hell!" probably would have made Rev Phelps proud, but we stood mostly silent for 3 hours. One young Russian got in my face and called me a FAGGOT but I didn't react as I stood next to a family that held a sign saying "Having two Mommies Rocks!" (they had come all the way down from Paradise,CA)

If anything this disheartening, outcome has brought about awareness, and inspiration to work together to bring about change.

On another site, I got mail from a gay christian who informed me that he had also voted to protect marriage as only between one man and one woman. A little snooping (and a confession shortly thereafter) revealed that he was "bi" and diddling around with guys on the side. Oh...but the wifey knows, of course, so the sanctity is still intact.

It doesn't cover the cost of production, TV time is one of the most expensive advertising mediums. But the spots aired did not show gay people because gay people were not the target audience, gay people were expected to vote No on 8, it was our neighbors and others who needed to be convinced Prop 8 was about Human Rights and Equality. Have the best dayMichael

Maybe gays were taken a bit too much for granted. You could show gay and lesbians all the No on prop 8 ads, and they still wouldn't have any idea that the proposition was about banning same-sex marriage.

As to targetting the neighbors and others, we might have convinced them we were fine people and should be allow to marry or remain married, if the No campaign had dared show our faces. But the No campaign waw too afraid. It's really hard to convince people of something when you don't even talk about the subject at all.

The no campaign actually raised more money than the yes side, but that money could have been put to better use.

I think if you were prepared to make a donation of one size when you made your request to them, then that would have stayed the same regardless of their answer unless you valued your view of how the issue should be presented as more important then the winning against the Ballot itself.

If you don't get that, then we are just not going to see eye-to-eye on this issue, but I reiterate my modified point in the last post that I think this represents the flip side of the same coin in getting the gay community to get behind issues that benefit them.

Regardless of how I feel about the issue, and that is to say, extremely strongly, I couldn't justify giving more money than I did to a campaign that was throwing good money after bad. If I had believed that my making the larger donation to that campaign had some chance of making a difference in the final outcome, without the campaign also changing strategy, I would have made that larger donation in a heartbeat.

I am hardly the only one who has been critical of the handling of the No campaign. I didn't want to be critical publicly before their failure - prophecies have a way of being self-fullfilling -, but many others were not as shy. Try watching back episodes of Gay USA on FSTV for example.

Maybe gays were taken a bit too much for granted. You could show gay and lesbians all the No on prop 8 ads, and they still wouldn't have any idea that the proposition was about banning same-sex marriage.

As to targetting the neighbors and others, we might have convinced them we were fine people and should be allow to marry or remain married, if the No campaign had dared show our faces. But the No campaign waw too afraid. It's really hard to convince people of something when you don't even talk about the subject at all.

The no campaign actually raised more money than the yes side, but that money could have been put to better use.

I didn't know the No campaign raised more money than the Yes. I did see the list of donations which was included in this tread by Iggy. The largest contributions to Yes on 8 came from other states, most of the California contributions came from Orange County, a must win in our state for a Republican candidate. Like the Obama campaign, the Yes on 8 volunteers went door to door, in neighborhoods where the opposition (us) would not expect them to. These people do not care about facts or trust advertising, headlines. They care about their church losing it's non-profit status and their children learning about homosexuality in pre-school. The 60 second spot in heavy rotation on prime time featuring the California Superintendent of Schools saying that was not the case in California, could knock that one back into reality.

Have you ever read the "Ask Betty" column in PlanetOut? As the mother of Ellen and a proud member of PFLAG, she would have been an excellent spokes model, as would any number of gay (and straight) celebrities but, I don't think the average openly gay man, woman or couple, like you and I , our friends could be a good representation to promote the cause.

I've owned an advertising agency and managed a million dollar book of business and from that experience, I learned to work with the local press on HIV issues, which were no longer considered news. It is an hour and a half drive from my house to San Francisco, the daily drive and the cost would have been more than I can do but, in a perfect world, I know how to handle a budget for advertising and how to work the press for all the freebies. I would have loved being part of this but in a County which voted 128,455 No on 8, 66.1% to 65,898 Yes on 8, 33.9%, there was no need for my help here. Have the best dayMichael

Rights and law should only be decided by courts.What has been done in Ca. is nothing short of a group lynchingof civil rights.This will be headed to the US Supreme court, as it should be.And it should succeed, nullifying any and all state amendments.Issues like this can not be left to the states.Civil rights must be uniform across the country.

An interesting link showing the effect of advertising on the outcome of Prop 8. Thanks for posting.

No disputing the effect that clever advertising can have on the public perception.

It's interesting to note that there are 1.3 million GLB people in CA (estimated). If everyone of them had convinced just one person to change their vote, Prop 8 would have failed by 800,000 votes. And that would not have cost a nickel.

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"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

I believe with all my heart that Prop 8 was just a "last gasp" for those opposed to gay marriage. It's just a matter of time before it's overturned in courts. The progression of this issue is so similar to blacks fight for civil rights--exept I think that it will happen a lot more quickly for gays because the foundation for it has already been laid from what happened in the sixties. This is a due process issue pure and simple. Civil Unions are not good enough. That's just like saying that "separate but equal" is o.k., when we settled that question over 40 years ago.

While Pres Obama the politician hasn't supported gay marriage, I'd be willing to bet my house, car, and dog that Pres Obama the person supports it whole heartedly. When the time is right, I think he will do the right thing. I can't imagine he'd do a Bill Clinton on it.

I am an African American woman and I am embarassed that my community is so homophobic. A little over 70% of Blacks in CA supported the marriage ban. You would think that since we know how it feels to be discriminated against that we wouldn't do it to others, but unfortunately that is not the case. Most blacks have Southern roots, and so blacks generally are conservative on all issues that aren't race related. Many blacks become defensive when you compare the gay rights movement with the Civil Rights movement of the 60's. Somehow they think that racism and homophobia are completely different animals, but they both spring from the same well of bigotry. Blacks also lag behind when it comes to women's rights, which I believe to be closely linked with gay rights. The black community suffers in many ways from our small-mindedness on this issue.

And on religion, most of the people who say they are Christians are not true Christians--just people who like to feel like they are better than others. It's not only gays, but pretty much anybody who doesn't walk in lockstep with them. I still consider myself to be a Christian(Baptist), but I don't belong to any church. I can't take judgmental holier than though attitudes and hypocrisy.

Anyway, I think change is gong to come very quickly especially since we have more examples of gays and gay marriage on T.V. While there are always going to be people who hate, I think the American people as a whole are becoming much, much more comfortable with the idea.

Unions are not good enough. That's just like saying that "separate but equal" is o.k.

For most of us, it's all or nothing, why take some half-baked civil union, that doesn't offer the REAL THING, that's not equal in my eyes I want the same State & Federal benefits as everyone else, not some half-assed State crap, that says I'm separate, but not really equal

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"it's so nice to be insane, cause no-one ask you to explain" Helen Reddy cc 1974

I am an African American woman and I am embarassed that my community is so homophobic. A little over 70% of Blacks in CA supported the marriage ban. You would think that since we know how it feels to be discriminated against that we wouldn't do it to others, but unfortunately that is not the case. Most blacks have Southern roots, and so blacks generally are conservative on all issues that aren't race related. Many blacks become defensive when you compare the gay rights movement with the Civil Rights movement of the 60's. Somehow they think that racism and homophobia are completely different animals, but they both spring from the same well of bigotry. Blacks also lag behind when it comes to women's rights, which I believe to be closely linked with gay rights. The black community suffers in many ways from our small-mindedness on this issue.

One complicating factor was that both sides in the campaign had plausible reason to claim Obama's support. The president-elect strongly stated his opposition to the proposition, calling it "divisive and discriminatory."

But he has also said in public speeches that he opposes same-sex marriage. In the days leading up to the election, some Democrats received "robo-calls" on their cellphones containing an excerpt from such a speech.

"Here is Barack Obama in his own words on the definition of marriage," the call began.

Then the voice of Obama speaking to a crowd comes on: "I believe marriage is a union between a man and a woman. Now, for me as a Christian, it is also a sacred union. God is in the mix."

A narrator then urged a yes vote on Proposition 8.

I didn't know about this robo-call until I read this article. I'm sure this was an effective tactic, particularly among African-Americans who were waffling on the issue. When Obama says gay marriage is wrong it carries a lot of weight.

One complicating factor was that both sides in the campaign had plausible reason to claim Obama's support. The president-elect strongly stated his opposition to the proposition, calling it "divisive and discriminatory."

But he has also said in public speeches that he opposes same-sex marriage. In the days leading up to the election, some Democrats received "robo-calls" on their cellphones containing an excerpt from such a speech.

"Here is Barack Obama in his own words on the definition of marriage," the call began.

Then the voice of Obama speaking to a crowd comes on: "I believe marriage is a union between a man and a woman. Now, for me as a Christian, it is also a sacred union. God is in the mix."

A narrator then urged a yes vote on Proposition 8.

I didn't know about this robo-call until I read this article. I'm sure this was an effective tactic, particularly among African-Americans who were waffling on the issue. When Obama says gay marriage is wrong it carries a lot of weight.

That's what happens when democrats don't take a clear position on the issue gay marriage. It really doesn't make a lot of sense to say that you don't believe in same-sex marriage, and at the same time oppose Proposition 8 - whose sole effect is to prohibit same-sex marriage. Yet that was Obama's position, and the position of a lot of other Democrats.

I had reservations about voting for Obama in the general election because of this inconsistent position, but I still did.

For most of us, it's all or nothing, why take some half-baked civil union, that doesn't offer the REAL THING, that's not equal in my eyes I want the same State & Federal benefits as everyone else, not some half-assed State crap, that says I'm separate, but not really equal

I'm completely with you there. The state benefits are only 1/3rd of the story. The most important benefits of marriage are federal ones, such as join tax filing and social security benefits.

At this time, there isn't any recognition of any same-sex civil union, domestic partnership, or marriage at the federal level. Our best bet is to get same-sex marriage recognized eventually at the federal level.

Also, there were 9 legal differences between domestic partnerships and marriage in the state of California. They were fairly minor, but still, they were not equal statutes, and they were clearly separate.

While Pres Obama the politician hasn't supported gay marriage, I'd be willing to bet my house, car, and dog that Pres Obama the person supports it whole heartedly. When the time is right, I think he will do the right thing. I can't imagine he'd do a Bill Clinton on it.

I wish I could be as optimistic about Obama as you are - I would never make these bets. But I hope you are right. What matters is what Obama the President will do. It's way too early to tell.

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I am an African American woman and I am embarassed that my community is so homophobic. A little over 70% of Blacks in CA supported the marriage ban. You would think that since we know how it feels to be discriminated against that we wouldn't do it to others, but unfortunately that is not the case. Most blacks have Southern roots, and so blacks generally are conservative on all issues that aren't race related. Many blacks become defensive when you compare the gay rights movement with the Civil Rights movement of the 60's. Somehow they think that racism and homophobia are completely different animals, but they both spring from the same well of bigotry. Blacks also lag behind when it comes to women's rights, which I believe to be closely linked with gay rights. The black community suffers in many ways from our small-mindedness on this issue.

While it is embarassing that blacks voted so overwhelmingly in favor of Prop 8, let's not forget that they only make up less than the 10% of the electorate in California. There is plenty of blame to go around among everybody else who voted for it.

In particular, it wasn't blacks who put the heinous initiative on the California ballot in the first place, and funded its campaign.

Blacks were merely gullible enough to swallow their argument whole.

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And on religion, most of the people who say they are Christians are not true Christians--just people who like to feel like they are better than others. It's not only gays, but pretty much anybody who doesn't walk in lockstep with them. I still consider myself to be a Christian(Baptist), but I don't belong to any church. I can't take judgmental holier than though attitudes and hypocrisy.

Anyway, I think change is gong to come very quickly especially since we have more examples of gays and gay marriage on T.V. While there are always going to be people who hate, I think the American people as a whole are becoming much, much more comfortable with the idea.

The whole question of religion shouldn't even come into play since the initiative was about civil marriage, not about religious marriage.

Many polls of Californians have shown they are in favor of gay marriage. But apparently, not all of them are registered to vote, or showed up to vote against the ban.

*sigh* They're trying to show a trend, dear -- and they clearly state this if you read.

There was no such trend. I followed the polls on prop 8 on a near daily basis. I saw plenty of losing polls, many of them sent by the No campaign right to my inbox to solicit more funding. This article only mentions some of the Field and PPIC polls. It's disingenuous at best.

There was no such trend. I followed the polls on prop 8 on a near daily basis. I saw plenty of losing polls, many of them sent by the No campaign right to my inbox to solicit more funding. This article only mentions some of the Field and PPIC polls. It's disingenuous at best.

I look forward to your averaging out every single poll result and presenting your astute trending analysis on this thread. Many thanks.

Just get out there an do something and stop complaining that your donation didn't make a difference. The Yes on H8 were going door to door, talking in churches and community groups, and community colleges to get there message out and it worked.

In spite of how this might sound, I'm not against gay marriage but I'm ecstatic that Prop 8 passed! Now before you all blow your lids at me stop and think about it.

These state by state victories and losses really are all just stepping stones to having our day in the sun with the Supreme Court of the nation. Until we see a case that makes it that far, these are all just skirmishes in the long battle towards equality. Now that Prop 8 has passed and the California State Attorney General has already said it wasn't written to be retroactive, it is now open to more victories in the courts as it's proven to be unconstitutional. Since they allowed marriages for many gay people before the proposition passed and they can't be undone by the poor wording in this proposition it's opened itself up for constitutional inequality for those who now can't get married when others were allowed to get married. The sooner we get a case like this up to the supreme court the better.

In spite of how this might sound, I'm not against gay marriage but I'm ecstatic that Prop 8 passed! Now before you all blow your lids at me stop and think about it.

These state by state victories and losses really are all just stepping stones to having our day in the sun with the Supreme Court of the nation. Until we see a case that makes it that far, these are all just skirmishes in the long battle towards equality. Now that Prop 8 has passed and the California State Attorney General has already said it wasn't written to be retroactive, it is now open to more victories in the courts as it's proven to be unconstitutional. Since they allowed marriages for many gay people before the proposition passed and they can't be undone by the poor wording in this proposition it's opened itself up for constitutional inequality for those who now can't get married when others were allowed to get married. The sooner we get a case like this up to the supreme court the better.

They call that "pretzel logic" where I come from. Taking a leaf out of the Lame Duck's book, that's something to be choked on.

"...health will finally be seen not as a blessing to be wished for, but as a human right to be fought for." Kofi Annan

Nymphomaniac: a woman as obsessed with sex as an average man. Mignon McLaughlin

HIV is certainly character-building. It's made me see all of the shallow things we cling to, like ego and vanity. Of course, I'd rather have a few more T-cells and a little less character. Randy Shilts

These state by state victories and losses really are all just stepping stones to having our day in the sun with the Supreme Court of the nation... Since they allowed marriages for many gay people before the proposition passed and they can't be undone by the poor wording in this proposition it's opened itself up for constitutional inequality for those who now can't get married when others were allowed to get married. The sooner we get a case like this up to the supreme court the better.

From everything that I have read the current supreme court would most likely say marriage by definition is between a man and a woman, all other arrangements were never truly marriage. I don't think we want the supreme court hearing this right now. We sure don't want the majority of Americans to vote on this because if you can't get 50% in California you sure as hell can't get 50% in the rest of the country. Remember 42 states already have defense of marriage statutes.

They call that "pretzel logic" where I come from. Taking a leaf out of the Lame Duck's book, that's something to be choked on.

~rolls eyes~

I'm not surprised at that coming from you. The fact remains that this won't be solved on a state by state basis. Until it becomes constitutionally ratified on the national level this fight is just one of many.

I'm not surprised at that coming from you. The fact remains that this won't be solved on a state by state basis. Until it becomes constitutionally ratified on the national level this fight is just one of many.

Unfortunately, there isn't an appropriate "smiley" with which to respond in this instance.

"...health will finally be seen not as a blessing to be wished for, but as a human right to be fought for." Kofi Annan

Nymphomaniac: a woman as obsessed with sex as an average man. Mignon McLaughlin

HIV is certainly character-building. It's made me see all of the shallow things we cling to, like ego and vanity. Of course, I'd rather have a few more T-cells and a little less character. Randy Shilts

"...health will finally be seen not as a blessing to be wished for, but as a human right to be fought for." Kofi Annan

Nymphomaniac: a woman as obsessed with sex as an average man. Mignon McLaughlin

HIV is certainly character-building. It's made me see all of the shallow things we cling to, like ego and vanity. Of course, I'd rather have a few more T-cells and a little less character. Randy Shilts

Purely a civil rights issue. Purely! I'm glad they are marching and fighting. Thatís the only way to do it. No one or government is going to just grant Rights, while the minority in question sits back and waits. They need to continue this protest day after day no matter how long it takes.

I think there should be another prop to address rights of blacks, Hispanics and women. The only difference, only gays get to vote and decide. Might as well let them know what its like to be decimated against.

This bigotry against gays is beyond insanity. If gays want civil rights, they should have them granted. No questions asked. No strings attached. Simple, done, resolved. And tomorrow... nothing would be any different for the rest of America. I can not believe in modern day, the stupid of society have such power over others. Totally totally insaneÖ!!!

PS. There are a lot of Gay owned businesses in Calif. Owners should place a sign in the window of their business. "If you voted for prop 8, DO NOT ENTER" "Your business is not welcome here!!!"

I think there should be another prop to address rights of blacks, Hispanics and women. The only difference, only gays get to vote and decide. Might as well let them know what its like to be decimated against.

I think this is as much of a religious issue as it is a race or gender issue. Blacks and Latinos tend to be more religious than others and tend to have more conservative views on certain cultural matters where they intercept with religion. Homophobia is a big issue in black churches and a wider community as a whole. I'm not sure how we turn that corner. But the blame game and more importantly putting black gay and lesbians in the middle, probably ain't the way.

But I do have to somewhat agree and somewhat disagree with madbrain here, blacks only made up 10% of voters in California. The proposition was pretty divided amongst all races, actually racking up support from white men (31% of voters), Latinos (18% of voters) and blacks (10% of voters). What a coalition! Only white women and Asians were against it, and with a margin of support of only 51-53% this simply wasn't enough to overcome the no votes. But (and here's the disagreement) there is no denying that had blacks and Latinos not voted for the proposition, it wouldn't have passed.

What is shameful, but not surprising (to me), is the % of black voters supporting the prop. At 70% that was only bested by Republican support for the prop (84%). At some point the black community will need to take accountability for our bigotry and discrimination against gay and lesbians.

These state by state victories and losses really are all just stepping stones to having our day in the sun with the Supreme Court of the nation. Until we see a case that makes it that far, these are all just skirmishes in the long battle towards equality...........The sooner we get a case like this up to the supreme court the better.

Iceberg dead ahead! Full speed ahead!!!!!!

Jeeeeeeeeeeeez.

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"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

The turn-outs are getting larger everyday. It is wonderful to see such a big mix of people at least here in Sacramento. There is a big rally and march today at the State Capitol from 1-4 pm. Several of my coworkers are bringing their kids and neighbors to show them what a rally is like as well as show them that their family values equality for all people.

I worked very hard on phone banks, face to face interaction in the streets and even got into some financial "mispending" over Prop 8. I was devastated about the outcome of the vote on Prop 8, but now I see it as a the "kick in the ass" we needed in the gay community to get out there UNITED and fight discrimination until ALL AMERICANS ARE EQUAL UNDER THE CONSTITUTION.Religion is the main reason Prop 8 passed. Yes the majority of Latino and Black voter were for prop 8, but only because of their religion ( Catholics and Baptist together with the Evangilicals and Mor(m)ons spent a lot of time and money to get people to vote yes on 8 The fight has only begun, maybe this is not such a bad thing after all....

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« Last Edit: November 09, 2008, 03:26:02 PM by pozattitude »

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POSITIVE PEDALERS... We are a group of people living with HIV/AIDS, eliminating stigma through our positive public example.

Religion is the main reason Prop 8 passed. Yes the majority of Latino and Black voter were for prop 8, but only because of their religion ( Catholics and Baptist together with the Evangilicals and Mor(m)ons spent a lot of time and money to get people to vote yes on 8

If we haven't already done so, it is time to acknowledge that "religion" is our worst enemy--not ethnicity, not political affiliation, not sexual orientation.

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"No one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences."--Albert Camus, "The Plague"

"Mankind can never be free until the last brick in the last church falls on the head of the last priest."--Voltaire

I also think that Prop. 8 passing will be a big "kick in the ass" towards equality under the US Constitution. Another thing I'd really, really like to see is churches not being able to contribute to political (and therefor governmental) issues. How well would it go over if a part of the govt. contributed to any organized religion, besides tax exempt status? Separation of Church and State is a two-way street.

"Sent: Nov 11, 2008 1:33 AM (FLID:) We are having a nationwide protest this coming Saturday, November 15th, all at exactly 10:30 a.m. (California time) at every City Hall across America. This was originally in response to PROP 8 passing in California and taking away our right to marry - but it is now about simply, once and for all, demanding TOTAL equal right. We are asking people in other countries that currently have this right to help us out by organizing protests in front of American Embassies or other U.S. official offices at the SAME time we will be protesting across America that day. We are expecting millions and there will be international news coverage! Please join your American brothers and sisters in their fight for equality (http://jointheimpact.wetpaint.com). THANK YOU and forward this message to everyone you know!"