The Next Conservative Party Leader

Firstly, as is the stock answer of all possible contenders “There is no vacancy”. Secondly Mrs. May’s demise has been predicted so often and she is still there, that the next Conservative Leader may have to wait until after a General Election and may well be Prime Minister even then. Predictions in Politics is a mug’s game. And surprisingly perhaps the Opinion Polls (which were almost all wrong last time) are still showing Labour and the Tories neck and neck.

So, just as a bit of fun (hahaha) let us examine the field. Largest is Boris, literally, and although he is most popular with the party at large, he would still have to be in the final two after M.P.s have had their say. He could just be the big fish that never got himself landed. And the fear is that he would crash and burn as leader.

Amber Rudd has been spectacularly quiet since the election last year. She is certainly a contender, though maybe a bit too much like Theresa herself…and she has a wafer thin majority in Hastings, and it would look like cowardice to parachute her into a safe seat.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is the bookies favourite, and is certainly on TV a lot, and although he may look and sound ridiculous to anyone with even one brain cell, he could just be the outside horse which romps home (Thatcher herself was an outsider, as was John Major and Ian Duncan Smith), so you never know.

Michael Gove does seem to have the ability to keep on keeping on, but again is may be just too much ‘old goods’.

Then there are the youngsters, David Gauke and Damian Hinds or even Penny Morduant – who knows. It could still even be Phillip Hammond if the party is badly damaged at the next election by Brexit.

My guess is that Theresa will survive (better stick with nurse for fear of something worse) and call an election a few months after Brexit, while we are still in the ‘transition’ and nothing bad has happened. I think she will lose a few seats and we will be in hung territory again. A Labour, Liberal and SNP alliance could just govern for a few months before a new Labour Leader replaces Jeremy….read on