Collapse due to War

Germany, 1618-1648

Background

--Central Europe was a mosaic of semi-independent states called the Holy Roman Empire.
Many of these states were ruled by the Austrian branch of the Hapsburg family. Another
branch of the Hapsburgs ruled Spain, the Low Countries, and parts of Italy.

Cause of the War

. King Ferdinand of Bohemia, a militant Catholic, tried to pack his royal council with
Catholics, and thereby angered his Protestant subjects. A Protestant mob cornered two of
the council members and threw them out of a high window (the Defenestration of Prague).
Both survived. Catholics claimed a miracle, Protestants claimed they landed on a manure
heap. Protestant rebels then went on to seize control of Prague, the capital of Bohemia.

Bohemian Phase, 1618-1625

. Ferdinand, with the aid of Bavaria and foreign mercenaries, reinvaded Bohemia and
obliterated Protestantism.

Danish Phase, 1625-1629

Protestant German rulers enlist the aid of Denmark to protect the Protestants of
Bohemia. The sequence now becomes much like World War I, where a minor local conflict
escalates into a general European war.

Swedish Phase, 1630-1635

In 1627, Ferdinand, who had by now been elected Holy Roman Emperor, meddled in
Italian politics on half of his Spanish relatives and allies and against the French. The
French-Swedish power block was a counterpoise to the Hapsburg block. The French persuaded
their Swedish allies to attack. The Swedes, led by the brilliant King Gustavus Adolphus,
invaded and advanced to Munich and Prague. Only after Gustavus Adolphus was killed in
battle were the Swedes routed.

Franco-Swedish Phase, 1635-1648

A general war of attrition using Germany as the battleground.

Effects of the War

40% of German population destroyed

Economy paralyzed

Weakening of Middle Class

Strengthening of autocracy

Power of Holy Roman Emperor destroyed

Germany fragmented into 300+ statelets. Not unified until 1871.

Rise of reactionary, militaristic Prussia.

Paraguayan War or War of the Triple Alliance, 1865-1870

Isolation of Paraguay

Jose Francia (El Supremo) 1816-1840

Carlos Antonio Lopez, 1841-1862

Francisco Solano Lopez, 1862-1870

Effects

Positive effects

Social revolution

Graduate abolition of slavery, 1842--

Negative effects

Ignorance of outside world

Cult of authority

Chauvinism and megalomania

The war

Causes rooted in complex politics. Paraguay ends up at war with Argentina, Brazil and
Uruguay.

1865-1869 Lengthy siege of southern Paraguayan forts and war of attrition.

Natural Disaster

The Great Hunger; Ireland, 1845-1849

The moment the very name of Ireland is mentioned, the English seem to bid adieu to
common feeling, common prudence, and common sense, and to act with the barbarity of
tyrants and the fatuity of idiots.
--Sydney Smith

British occupation of Ireland

Ireland could be and was used as a base for any enemy or rebel to attack England
itself. To rule in England, it was also necessary to rule in Ireland.

First invasion, 1169 Religious split, 1500's "England's difficulty is Ireland's
opportunity" With hostility in Ireland forming such a direct threat to the home soil
of England, the English lost their perspective and acted as backwardly in Ireland as they
were progressive in their other colonies. Repression and penal laws--Irish disenfranchised
in their own country Need for land reform--fragmentation--absentee landlords

Over-dependence on the potato

Population explosion (about 9 million in 1840 vs. 3.5 million in 1985)

Technological ignorance

In a given year, 2.5 million went hungry at some time.

75% unemployment

A disaster waiting for a chance to happen. Over 200 official English commissions studied
Ireland and came to this conclusion in the decades BEFORE the famine.

The potato blight

1842 Potato blight in U.S. and Canada

1845 July. Irish crop promising

August. Blight enters England

September. Blight enters Ireland

October. Catastrophe

The response. Prime Minister Robert Peel began relief measures, including repeal of the
agricultural protection measures known as the Corn Laws (in Britain, "Corn"
means wheat). He also began importing Maize (American corn). But the prevailing doctrine
of Laissez Faire (French, let them be) economics prevented the government from taking the
strong measures that would really have been necessary to relieve the disaster.

1846 100% failure of the Irish potato crop

1847 Spring, Typhus breaks out in Ireland

Mass flight beings

Only 20% of the farmland planted

Summer, No blight (but no harvest either)

1848 Crop fails again. 100% destruction

Revolutions in Europe

Abortive and ineffective Irish revolt plot

1849 Cholera breaks out in Ireland

The famine never really ends. Bad times taper off gradually, with relief due as much to
exodus as to improved conditions.

The Great Exodus

To the Irish, with their clan society and love of their land, one of the most dreaded
penalties was deportation. Only extreme hardship could drive them to leave Ireland
voluntarily.

The British preferred the Irish to go to Canada, which needed laborers for the lumber
industry and which was also British.

The Irish preferred to go to the U.S., which symbolized successful revolt against the
British and where opportunities were better. Many Irish slipped across the border from
Canada.

Conditions on the transport ships were appalling. Many Irish arrived in Canada on the
verge of starvation. Thousands died in quarantine stations. Sanitary conditions in Irish
slums in the U.S. were also dreadful.

By far the largest number of Irish went to Liverpool and Glasgow, setting the British
effort to close down slum areas back until the flood of immigrants could be absorbed.

Effects of the famine

All prospects of peacefully unifying Ireland and England were destroyed.

Ireland revolted in open civil war in 1918 and won its independence by 1921.

One third of Ireland's population died or fled.

Ireland's population today is less than half its population in 1840.

Collapse due to Institutional Paralysis

Germany, 1923

The setting. Germany, forced to pay billions of dollars in war reparations to the
Allies, decided on a strategy of passive resistance and slowdowns to protest. When the
French occupied some border areas, general strikes and stoppages broke out.

The basic problem with these tactics is they only disrupt the economy within
Germany. The Allies, all outside Germany, can simply wait and watch the interest
pile up on the debt.

Collapse of the Mark

With production at a standstill, inflation set in.

January 1914 $1 = 4 marks

January 1921 $1 = 45 marks

January 1922 $1 = 162 marks

September 1922 $1 = 1300 marks

January 1923 $1 = 17000 marks

So far, the inflation is bad but not too different from what many other nations have
experienced. From here on, things get ridiculous.

August 15, 1923: $1 = 2,950,000 marks

August 31, 1923: $1 = 13,000,000 marks

September 14, 1923: $1 = 97,500,000 marks

October 1, 1923: $1 = 345,000,000 marks

November 15, 1923: $1 = 2,500,000,000,000 marks

The Remedy

On November 16, the "Rentenmark" was introduced, supposedly backed by the
combined assets of all Germany. In effect, it mortgaged the country. The supply was
rigidly controlled and only a prescribed amount was issued.

Effects

Destruction of the middle class

Creation of middle class resentment and desire for strong leader fulfilled later by
Hitler.

U.S.A., 1929-1940, The Great Depression

The Crash

Post-War prosperity, 1918-1929 was flashy but lacked substance.

Stock values overinflated.

Stocks drop sharply, October 25, 1929

Panic selling October 29, 1929

Congress enacts trade barriers, 1930

Franklin D. Roosevelt elected, 1932

The Depression

State of the Economy, 1933

Unemployment 25%

Gross National Product down 33% since 1929

Stock values down from $80 billion in 1929 to $19 billion in 1933

New Deal inaugurated, 1933

Social Security initiated, 1934

Minimum wage established, 1938

The U.S. National Debt

1910$1.1 billion

1920 $21 billion (World War I)

1930 $16 billion

1940 $43 billion (New Deal)

1950 $256 billion (World War II)

Collapse Due to Ideological Paralysis

Chile, 1974

A controversial topic. In 1970, the Marxist Salvador Allende was elected president of
Chile, though in the large field of candidates he received only 30% of the vote. Although
Allende was a humane president and maintained civil liberties, his economic program
resulted in near economic collapse. In 1973, a military coup deposed Allende, who was
killed in the fighting. The rightist regime of Augusto Pinochet came to power and was
accused of massive human rights violations.

Cambodia (Kampuchea) 1975-1980

Documented in the film The Killing Fields.

In 1975 the Communist Khmer Rouge came to power in Cambodia. In an attempt to create a
pure Marxist society, the leader Pol Pot ordered the cities evacuated and the population
driven into the countryside to work in the fields. For a time, even money was abolished.
Foreign contact even with the government was nearly nil. The Khmer Rouge were ousted by
the Vietnamese invasion, but not before an estimated 3,000,000 people had been killed by
starvation, disease, and mass execution.

Collapse due to Interacting Causes

Uruguay

Once called the "Switzerland of South America" for its liberal social
benefits, Uruguay for a time had one of the most repressive regimes in Latin America.

1870-1920 Large immigration from Western Europe provides liberalizing and moderating
influence. European immigrants rapidly ascend to power, inaugurate liberal social welfare
programs.

1945-1965 Declining balance of foreign trade causes deterioration of economy. Large
disparity in standard of living between cities and rural regions.

1965-1970 Tupamaro urban guerrillas harass government, which responds with progressively
harsher countermeasures. One aim of the Tupamaros had been to provoke just such repression
in the hope of arousing a general revolt. It would be hard to find a more senseless
example of political vandalism.

Mozambique

"Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong."

Portuguese colony,
1505-1974.

Portuguese colonial policy was perhaps the most repressive of any colonial
power.