Poll: Iowans don't like the way Chris Christie handled GWB scandal

Mar. 10, 2014

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About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Feb. 23-26 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 703 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on the sample of 703 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.

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Immediately after the news broke that a colossal George Washington Bridge traffic jam was a form of political payback, pundits busied themselves trying to size up how Iowans felt about Republican star Chris Christie’s role in it all.

The new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll has the answer: 57 percent of Iowa adults disapprove of the way Christie, the New Jersey governor and one of the most-talked-about potential 2016 presidential candidates, has handled the controversy.

Another 25 percent approve, and 18 percent say they’re not sure, according to the Feb. 23-26 poll of 703 Iowa adults.

Republicans in Iowa are a little more understanding: 47 percent disapprove of how Christie has dealt with the controversy surrounding his staff’s involvement in closing lanes on the heavily trafficked George Washington Bridge last fall as retaliation for a mayor’s refusal to support his re-election bid. Thirty-four percent approve.

What does all this mean for Christie’s prospects in Iowa, home of the leadoff vote in the president-picking process?

“For a candidate like Christie to win in the Iowa caucuses, he needs to motivate independents and mobilize a large number of them to participate in the GOP caucuses,” said Smith, who worked for Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin’s 1992 presidential campaign and spent a lot of time in Iowa as 2004 presidential candidate Dick Gephardt’s press secretary.

“If his rationale for a 2016 candidacy is his appeal to independent voters,” Smith said, results of this poll indicate damage.

GOP strategist Brad Todd said he had expected Christie would recover more quickly from this incident, which erupted in the national news in January.

“It appears to have made a bigger impression on voters than any of us anticipated,” said Todd, who has done campaign work for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, among others. “If Governor Christie runs, he may choose to follow John McCain and Rudy Giuliani’s path and skip Iowa.”

Establishment Republicans see the tough-talking former federal prosecutor as someone who has stood up to public employee unions, corralled the state’s budget and brought in big bucks from the corporate community on the fundraising circuit. He cruised to re-election in November with 60 percent of the vote.

But he’s not a social conservative, and the social-conservative tilt of the Iowa caucuses has prompted speculation all along about how hard Christie might run in Iowa if he takes the presidential plunge.