Vigilance urged as coronavirus rises among the young

Medical personnel check out one of their testing facilities as representatives from multiple Southeast Texas counties annnounce the opening of a drive-thru testing unit for COVID-19 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport Monday. Photo taken Monday, March 23, 2020 Kim Brent/The Enterprise less

Medical personnel check out one of their testing facilities as representatives from multiple Southeast Texas counties annnounce the opening of a drive-thru testing unit for COVID-19 at Jack Brooks Regional ... more

Photo: Kim Brent / The Enterprise

Photo: Kim Brent / The Enterprise

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Medical personnel check out one of their testing facilities as representatives from multiple Southeast Texas counties annnounce the opening of a drive-thru testing unit for COVID-19 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport Monday. Photo taken Monday, March 23, 2020 Kim Brent/The Enterprise less

Medical personnel check out one of their testing facilities as representatives from multiple Southeast Texas counties annnounce the opening of a drive-thru testing unit for COVID-19 at Jack Brooks Regional ... more

Photo: Kim Brent / The Enterprise

Vigilance urged as coronavirus rises among the young

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Over the past month, the number of coronavirus cases confirmed in Southeast Texans younger than 40 has more than doubled.

At the same time, the region has not seen a virus-related death in about a week, after recording at least two each week since the beginning of April. Nor is it seeing any increase in cases severe enough to warrant admittance to the ICU or a ventilator to breathe.

This dichotomy illustrates a key to one of the ways scientists think can suppress the virus: Keeping seemingly healthy people — generally younger, often unaware they have the virus — from infecting higher-risk individuals who managed to steer clear before the reopening.

Beaumont Public Health Director Sherry Ulmer summed up the danger of being lulled into a false sense of security even as businesses and social habits return.

“Just because everything is opening doesn’t mean that this virus has gone away,” she said. “There’s confusion. People are interpreting that if things are opening, ‘We’re good. The virus is gone.’

“But it’s not gone, and until there is a vaccine and treatment we need to be cautious.”

The Enterprise conducted a statistical analysis of the age of individuals who have been confirmed to be infected with COVID-19, the highly transmissible disease caused by the virus. The paper examined the period between April 21, when public testing sites began accepting individuals regardless of their symptoms, and Thursday.

More Information

Age breakdown of increases in positive coronavirus tests between April 21 and May 14:

Jefferson County (103.8% overall)

0-10: 233.3%

10-20: 900%

20-30: 158.3%

30-40: 139.3%

40-50: 85.7%

50-60: 84.2%

60-70: 70%

70-80: 38.5%

80-plus: 60%

Hardin County (27.5% overall)

0-10: No cases

10-20: 0%

20-30: 66.7%

30-40: 25%

40-50: 36.4%

50-60: 3.9%

60-70: 46.2%

70-80: 62.5%

80-plus: 28.6%

Orange County (46.7% overall)

0-10: No cases

10-20: 133.3%

20-30: 42.9%

30-40: 80%

40-50: 66.7%

50-60: 20%

60-70: 27.3%

70-80: 66.7%

80-plus: 100%

Data source: Southeast Texas Regional Operations Center

During that time, as many businesses reopened their doors, the number of positive cases among residents under 40 in Hardin, Jefferson and Orange counties grew more than twice as fast as the total number of cases.

The growth rate among this demographic was three times faster than among individuals 40 or older.

While the public health departments haven’t broken down how many individuals in each age group actually are being tested, the overall number of people tested every day stayed relatively consistent over the timeframe.

And the rise in the number of younger people who have contracted the virus is to be expected at this point as testing no longer is limited to people who are checked in to a hospital, said Dr. Ray Callas, a Beaumont doctor who serves on the Texas Medical Association board.

“They’re not as desperately ill as someone that’s 50 or above with co-morbidities” and didn’t get tested in the beginning, said Callas, who has advised local officials on the pandemic and response efforts.

“I also believe the reason you’re seeing a lot more younger people, and will continue to see more young people become positive, is that the country is trying to get the economy back up and running.”

Beaumont Mayor Becky Ames said recently that the cases the city’s seen in the past few weeks are comparable to the flu in severity.

That tracks with national stats from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that show adults with the virus who are older than 65 are at least 31% more likely to be hospitalized. They are between 4% and 27% more likely to die from it.

As asymptomatic people begin to move around freely, however, the more likely it is for them to infect someone more vulnerable.

Jefferson County Public Health Authority Dr. Cecil Walkes said last week’s upward trend in positive cases is to be expected as businesses reopen. For now, he said, he hopes to see the region level out soon.

But he and other experts stress continued vigilance. If this spike is followed by a similar increase in deaths or hospitalizations, that would signal a spread beyond just younger, relatively healthy individuals eating out, getting haircuts and forgoing masks and 6-foot buffers.

“It’s not time to start congregating and going back to the tendencies of Southeast Texans,” Callas said. “I’m a big hugger. I like to shake your hand. But continuing to social distance and keep our hands clean is going to be important the more we reopen.

“What I don’t want to see is Southeast Texas or Texas overall have to go back where we were.”

That’s largely why Ulmer continues to wear a mask. The mask isn’t as likely to protect the wearer as it is any person they come into contact with. And if everyone wears some type of face covering, the likelihood that anyone getting infected plummets.

“It’s not 100%, but it’s more effective than wearing nothing at all,” Ulmer said. “Apparently this virus is highly transmissible, but if we all have a face covering on, we all have some level of protection.”

Callas said he’s advised his elderly patients and those with other complicating factors such as obesity, high blood pressure or diabetes to continue to limit their exposure to large groups.

Instead of going out to a restaurant, he suggests inviting friends or family over for a smaller gathering.

And if an individual feels the least bit sick — cough, fever, ringing in the ears, a change in the way things taste, etc. — they should contact a physician immediately.

“That’s where we have to be,” he said. “I’m a big proponent of having a very big economy. Right now, if we don’t do something, I’m more worried about the economy not being able to turn around.”