I was making reasonable money by the time punk rock hit and by that I mean my 1967 Chevy Bel Air Super Sport (with white hardtop roof) was full of gas and oil (took about the same of each every time I stopped). I could afford to do all kings of things, like catch Goddo at the Riv Rock Room or meet friends for late night pizza at Baaco. One of my favorite things was hitting the punk rock record store, Obscure Alternatives, located at that time in the Tegler Building downtown. Bought the Sex Pistols, Clash, Jam, Damned, Talking Heads, Ramones, Blondie, Television, I swear that place offered the best available during that time (along with mainstream Dire Straits and a Dave Mason solo album with a song called We Just Disagree). I left the city 1980. By the time I got back in 1986, Obscure Alternatives was gone, the Tegler was gone, and the Oilers had two Stanley’s. So many things happen when you’re young, it’s a blur.

CERTAIN OILERS

Since we’re through the signing season and any additional roster players are likely to be invites, I’ve moved up both Anton Slepyshev and Eric Gryba since our last look.

I’ve also moved some of the lines around, putting Jokinen at RW to give that side a little more experience.

I have Nuge at RW, even though it’s an abomination. Abomination!

The defense makes the most sense as above, so we’ll run with it until further notice. Complaints in the complaints jar and remember—before insulting me—I generally recognize handwriting.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

This list could be four deep if I was honest, but listing Khaira, Pakarinen and Auvitu twice isn’t going to attract eyeballs.

Nick Ellis. He is a player to watch.

The ‘easy three’ to add to the certain Oilers list as Jujhar Khaira, Iiro Pakarinen and Yohann Auvitu.

Andrej Sekera isn’t on any of these lists.

THE DISTANT BELLS

Distant bells rarely make the opening night roster. I had Anton Slepyshev as a distant bell August 2015 and he made the big club straightaway. That’s a helluva thing.

In terms of position opportunity, I think Ethan Bear will eventually overtake Eric Gryba at RHD, but you don’t want Bear as 7D on the big team. He needs to play every night.

There’s some talent here, with Benson, Jones, Paigin, Bear, Mantha and Wells representing an interesting group either graduating to pro or one year away.

Oilers badly need to produce NHL-calibre talent at a rapid rate, like Lucille Ball and that conveyor belt in the chocolate factory.

Kailer Yamamoto. Far more than a distant drum. I still haven’t decided where to put him.

QUICK HITTERS

David Staples has an article up about Nuge, quoting talk of selling low. Edmonton doesn’t have to do anything until next summer and have few options.

Value contracts under $5 million for 2018-19 might include Kailer Yamamoto and Zack Kassian. Peter Chiarelli is going to have to do very good work with RFA’s like Ryan Strome, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning.

UFA’s like Patrick Maroon, Jussi Jokinen and Yohann Auvitu may also factor in to the equation. Important now, with Draisaitl’s deal done, to find some real value contracts on this roster.

One contract that might make sense? Getting Matt Benning signed for reasonable dollars on a long-term deal right now. It’s a risk for sure, but getting the talented youngster signed this summer makes a lot of sense.

I’ve looked at this six ways to Sunday, and if the Oilers are going to keep Nuge, one of the NMC’s is going to have to be lifted.

Cam Talbot has to list 10 teams he can’t be traded to next summer. That makes no sense, as Talbot has exceptional value to the team. Source: CapFriendly.

Andrej Sekera’s NMC doesn’t partially lift until summer 2019, meaning the organization would have to ask him to waive if the plan was to do it next summer. Sekera is a very valuable player, so the move is problematic on the face of it. He was also signed by Peter Chirelli, general managers traditionally honor these deals (sets a terrible example and possibly hurts procurement). Source: CapFriendly.

Milan Lucic’s NMC doesn’t have an outlet of any kind until 2021 summer. He’s also one year into his long-term deal and I don’t think it’s a realistic option. If Lucic posts a poor season, maybe we see a change in the weather, but I don’t think it’s close to an option the organization would consider. CapFriendly.

Kris Russell’s NMC is very similar to Sekera’s, partial opening 2019 summer. He is just about to start the four-year contract, not a chance in hell Edmonton signs a deal and then turns on him this quickly imo. CapFriendly.

I’d love to see Nuge here for the next decade, love what he brings. I think the Oilers have gotten themselves in a box here, and won’t be able to get out of it with 93 on the roster after this season. Pray baby Jesus I’m wrong, RNH gives this team all kinds of options when he’s in the lineup. I bet Todd McLellan loves him.

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– Chia was on the fan in Toronto the other day: basically: Drai will play wing with McD in some situations, and will be C in others, depending on situation, home/away, PP etc

– It was a good interview: Chia was saying to paraphrase: “look, Drai was Calder winner (on losing team to bot!), massive playoffs with us, elite numbers, he wants to be the guy, can play in all situations, we like him a lot, its all about risk, all he’s done is achieve in every situation, and everyone is happy.”

– So your chart of course isn’t dynamic, but Drai’s playing position will be

– Assuming we could have elite PP RNH from awhile ago, and a coached up Dave Keon RNH, I’d rather keep him, and not resign the 30 year old Maroon.

– It’s a big year for RNH: injury and he’s done: soft and he’s done, no score and he’s done.

Placing all 3 kids on the same line for the ‘at bats’… I think you are just mocking us or seeing if we are paying attention, how insulting… if this was your RE series I would use my alter ego to really go off on you LT!

Brantford Boy:
Placing all 3 kids on the same line for the ‘at bats’… I think you are just mocking us or seeing if we are paying attention, how insulting… if this was your RE series I would use my alter ego to really go off on you LT!

Based on the numbers (both fancies and cap) that trade would give us the best chance of winning the cup over the next three years. Then you always have a 29 year old Hall you could resign (admittedly probably in the ~$10M range, because, well, he’s Taylor Hall).

I like Nuge, but he is not even close to a 6 million dollar player. That’s the reality and that makes him expendable. I think there are many players you could get for around 3 million who would fill Nuge’s role adequately. Bottom line…Nuge, Ebs and Hall are not Chia’s guys and 2 of them had awful contracts.

That is one of my favourite vintage automobiles. Please tell me it’s parked in your garage, fully restored and you and the missus take it out for rips on Sundays.

I was driving to work from Edmonton to Wetaskiwin about 4:30 one morning in 1981. The sky was still mostly dark as I drove through Kavanaugh, slowing down for the speed signs. A car was coming in the opposite direction, turning into the little strip that was the town.

He was almost asleep, and turned into me as I drove by. My Bel Air did several 360’s but hugged the road like a champion. The policeman came and drove me to work, towed my car to the wrecker and I never saw it again.

Went with a fellow guitar player and we were both so blown away AND demoralized by how good Stevie was that we both stopped playing for nearly a year!

Still love the family run pizza joints though. Capitol by Londonderry was good for so long as was the NY Steakhouse in St. Albert. My go to for pizza now is Zambelli’s on the west end. Remember the old days when they didn’t skimp on the sauce and cheese? That’s the kind of pizza you get there.

Definitely not. I really like THall but, Winning teams are built up the middle. Wingers are for roster balance. I would seriously look at a Draisaitl for McKinnon + deal. If I was Sakic, I would be looking at the Oilers salary situation and be calling everyday

season not played:
Not sure if this qualifies as a thread jack or not, because the thread hasn’t got going, but just for fun.

Ray Shero calls you up and says I will trade you Hall for Draisaitl right now straight up.

Do you do it?

At the same salary I’d pick Draisaitl.
But the $2.5 M difference is not insignificant.

One of the reasons I like Larsson as an Oiler as compared to Hall is that is almost $2M cheaper and in a salary cap world that means a lot.

The $2.5M in savings could be used to sign Nurse or Benning to a Ryan Ellis type of deal.

So it would be Hall and Nurse/Benning for Draisaitl.

With cap hell coming it would be something to think about.

But then in 3 years, what is Taylor Hall going to cost?
If he is the dynamic attacker who was 3rd/4th in LW Allstar voting those couple of years he will be expensive. If he is injured and it’s up points like last year not so much.

If this team makes one more “Hall/Eberle for Larsson/Strome” type deal, is that enough to ensure everyone is signed? Let’s say it cuts $2.5M from the cap and gives us a legit, young contributor somewhere in the NHL lineup.

That leaves the Oilers with probably $17-19M next summer to re-sign Brossoit, Nurse, Benning, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Strome, Maroon, and Letestu. Say $1M for Brossoit, $3M for Nurse and Benning, $2M for Caggiula and Slepyshev, and $3.5M for Strome. That’s $14.5M. Enough left for Letestu, but not Maroon.

With that in mind, maybe the move is to trade Nuge for Maroon’s replacement. Montreal needs a C and has Pacioretty, Drouin, and Galchenyuk on LW. Carolina has Jeff Skinner. Columbus has Boone Jenner. Or maybe it’s Nuge for Kreider.

Regardless of how it goes down, that’s my bet. Nuge for Maroon’s replacement, McDavid-Drai-Strome at C, and a big if reasonable bet on Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and Slepyshev being able to hold down RW.

jasontheschoolteacher:
I like Nuge, but he is not even close to a 6 million dollar player. That’s the reality and that makes him expendable. I think there are many players you could get for around 3 million who would fill Nuge’s role adequately. Bottom line…Nuge, Ebs and Hall are not Chia’s guys and 2 of them had awful contracts.

Awful deal? It made about as much sense if not more at the time than Draisaitls deal does.

I could see Paigin make it over Auvitu. Maybe one of the vets gets the opening night press box, but if there is room on the ice (rather than press box), then I could see Paigin up and playing. Maybe he’ll have a Zaitsev rookie season. Bear will push Gryba off eventually and possibly sooner then expected. I could also see the more versatile and experienced Malone (shoots, hits and wins faceoffs) making the roster over Khaira or Pakarinen (although they have shooting and hitting on their resume as well).

jasontheschoolteacher:
I like Nuge, but he is not even close to a 6 million dollar player. That’s the reality and that makes him expendable. I think there are many players you could get for around 3 million who would fill Nuge’s role adequately. Bottom line…Nuge, Ebs and Hall are not Chia’s guys and 2 of them had awful contracts.

I dont think either of Eberle or RNH were awful contracts. Both earned it, Oil assumed the risk on the Austins. One was clearly the class of the group, but awful, no I think they were good. At their current paces, I would wager both Eberle and RNH are earning about the same on their next contracts, and Hall is getting close to $10m.

season not played:
Not sure if this qualifies as a thread jack or not, because the thread hasn’t got going, but just for fun.

Ray Shero calls you up and says I will trade you Hall for Draisaitl right now straight up.

Do you do it?

I would think this question is a pretty even split, and I’d bet that split is very close to the bridge vs. no bridgers on Leon. Hall’s 3 years left allows for more cap flexibility, but he’s going to get a nice payday in a few years.

GM’s dont give out big contracts because you have a good corsi rel, Taylor Hall will not be getting anywhere near 10 million on his next contract. He wont get 8.5 either. Hell if he cant stay healthy and regain the form of a few years ago he wont even get a raise on his current salary.

I am flabbergasted that anyone would say they would trade Leon for him.

Unless we see a dramatic change in camp, Nuge is a poor fit for this group and this system.

I think he’s for the year regardless, since Todd can utilize him as an effective tough minutes two-way center, he’s got a good nose for defense, and hopefully he can give us good secondary scoring, though we could see a point drop-off depending on linemates.

Pump-and-dump aside or barring a dramatic change, IMO his top 6 time is done here, he’s too poor on the wall and in the tough areas to be a RW on McDavid’s line, and a poor sandpaper-like fit at center with Lucic and his winger, either Slepyshev or Strome.

Bottom line, Todd/Chia can get a better 2-way tough minutes center with faceoff acumen and some toughness next summer for a lot less than 3yrs/$6M

Besides, the Oilers are all about the McDavid cluster now, not the rebuild cluster.

Bag of Pucks: Odd, I don’t recall Nuge ever finishing 8th in league and playoff scoring.

And that is why Nuge isn’t getting paid $8.5M per season.

Prior to TMac coming here, Nugent-Hopkins was a consistent +50pt player. Deployment changes obviously changed that in the last couple of years, but 50pts (in less than 82 games) for 6M isn’t as big a gamble as Draisaitl’s contract.

According to CapFriendly, 10 forwards made $6M last season. The average points was 49.5. Before Nuge signed his 6×6 contract he averaged 60pts a season (pro-rated, after the 14-15 season he had a career PPG of 0.73). This season he had 43pts, 7 off from the league average of 50 for 6M players.

Give him more ES and PP time, and he’ll easily get those 7pts. In doing so, relative to the rest of the league, would he be overpaid then?

I’m leaving for the weekend, but it is clearly true. Witness the happiness at Draisatl’s contract combined with the relentless denigration of Hall. It is everyday here.

Oiler fans always choose their position in advance based upon their feelings and then seek to rationalize it.

Even intelligent posters operate in this way. Every Georges and Ducey post is an attempt to justify what the team does. Ducey changed his position on Strome the second the trade was made. Georges flat out says he is trying to defend the team.

99% of Oiler fans think the Devils regret the Hall trade. Then go read a Devil blog where the trade is universally applauded to this day. Then think on why this is.

LoDog:
GM’s dont give out big contracts because you have a good corsi rel, Taylor Hall will not be getting anywhere near 10 million on his next contract. He wont get 8.5 either. Hell if he cant stay healthy and regain the form of a few years ago he wont even get a raise on his current salary.

I am flabbergasted that anyone would say they would trade Leon for him.

Proposed trade aside, I think you are undervaluing Taylor Hall a bit here.

His form from a few years ago would probably net him at least 10M in todays NHL. 80pts in 75gp, and he did that literally by himself, not with McDavid, playing with players who we have been trying to trade away since last summer allegedly for peanuts (Eberle, Nuge).

Hall is a river pusher. One we desperately need Draisaitl to become. I’m pretty sure GMs value that. If complimentary players (Nuge, Lucic, Eberle) are making $6M in the league now there is no way Hall doesn’t get a raise for his ability to push a line and make players around him better.

Pink Socks: I dont think either of Eberle or RNH were awful contracts.Both earned it, Oil assumed the risk on the Austins.One was clearly the class of the group, but awful, no I think they were good.At their current paces, I would wager both Eberle and RNH are earning about the same on their next contracts, and Hall is getting close to $10m.

We like to turn on players due to their contracts (Horcoff says hi) but prior to the last couple of season Nuge and Eberle were producing consistent with other $6M players in the league (granted this is from a very limited amount of “research” on my part – somebody correct me if I am wrong). Obviously they missed Hall last season, and weren’t given a feature role they’ve had in the past, and their numbers reacted accordingly.

Cassandra: I’m leaving for the weekend, but it is clearly true.Witness the happiness at Draisatl’s contract combined with the relentless denigration of Hall.It is everyday here.

Oiler fans always choose their position in advance based upon their feelings and then seek to rationalize it.

Even intelligent posters operate in this way.Every Georges and Ducey post is an attempt to justify what the team does.Ducey changed his position on Strome the second the trade was made.Georges flat out says he is trying to defend the team.

99% of Oiler fans think the Devils regret the Hall trade.Then go read a Devil blog where the trade is universally applauded to this day. Then think on why this is.

When people generalize team fans and a then give a percentage, that percentage is made up 99% of the time.

OmJo: We like to turn on players due to their contracts (Horcoff says hi) but prior to the last couple of season Nuge and Eberle were producing consistent with other $6M players in the league (granted this is from a very limited amount of “research” on my part – somebody correct me if I am wrong). Obviously they missed Hall last season, and weren’t given a feature role they’ve had in the past, and their numbers reacted accordingly.

If NYI decides to play Eberle with Tavares, well…

6 mil dollars has been and remains a lot of money to pay a winger. 6 mil until this last set of contracts made Eberle have the 12 highest cap hit of all wingers and 7th highest RW

Cassandra: I’m leaving for the weekend, but it is clearly true.Witness the happiness at Draisatl’s contract combined with the relentless denigration of Hall.It is everyday here.

Oiler fans always choose their position in advance based upon their feelings and then seek to rationalize it.

Even intelligent posters operate in this way.Every Georges and Ducey post is an attempt to justify what the team does.Ducey changed his position on Strome the second the trade was made.Georges flat out says he is trying to defend the team.

99% of Oiler fans think the Devils regret the Hall trade.Then go read a Devil blog where the trade is universally applauded to this day. Then think on why this is.

“I’m leaving for the weekend, but everyone is wrong and I am right. Here’s more made up crap that demonstrates I have no idea what I am talking about” Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Classic!

Cassandra: I’m leaving for the weekend, but it is clearly true.Witness the happiness at Draisatl’s contract combined with the relentless denigration of Hall.It is everyday here.

Oiler fans always choose their position in advance based upon their feelings and then seek to rationalize it.

Even intelligent posters operate in this way.Every Georges and Ducey post is an attempt to justify what the team does.Ducey changed his position on Strome the second the trade was made.Georges flat out says he is trying to defend the team.

99% of Oiler fans think the Devils regret the Hall trade.Then go read a Devil blog where the trade is universally applauded to this day. Then think on why this is.

Intelligent poster badge. Yes!!

I never know whether you’re worked up or pseudo worked up. I assume it’s always pseudo worked up because you can’t quit this place.

I thought Drai shouldn’t have made much more than Gaudreau. Argued that on here. Then the Oilers signed him to much more than Gaudreau. It’s so very easy for me to let it go. Just like it’s easy for me to be optimistic about Drai’s future. I like his game, I like his competitiveness, and I like that we signed him to that contract with CMD for cover. I see no point in trotting out Drai can’t do this and that and small sample this and that when the kid is only 21. He has improved every one of the three years he’s been in the league and he led his team in the playoffs against WC rivals who have owned us for ages. So I think his ceiling with and without CMD hasn’t been set.

Rationalizing your feelings… that’s life. I took a walk down memory lane to the posts where you expressed your feelings toward the Hall-Larsson trade. You’ve been rationalizing ever since.

Prior to TMac coming here, Nugent-Hopkins was a consistent +50pt player. Deployment changes obviously changed that in the last couple of years, but 50pts (in less than 82 games) for 6M isn’t as big a gamble as Draisaitl’s contract.

According to CapFriendly, 10 forwards made $6M last season. The average points was 49.5. Before Nuge signed his 6×6 contract he averaged 60pts a season (pro-rated, after the 14-15 season he had a career PPG of 0.73). This season he had 43pts, 7 off from the league average of 50 for 6M players.

Give him more ES and PP time, and he’ll easily get those 7pts. In doing so, relative to the rest of the league, would he be overpaid then?

With the Austins, Tambellini and Katz were trying to get out in front of the market. With all 3 contracts, they weren’t paying for past production or direct comparables. They thought their crystal ball was 100% dialed in so they thought they’d lock down their future ‘elite’ core before inflation and actual elite performance made the players more demanding in negotiations. They were also trying to establish a benchmark for internal salary controls (i.e. no one makes more than the Austins).

History has shown they outsmarted themselves. The players in question elevated their production enough that the contracts could be argued as ‘reasonable value’ but the production rarely hit the elite level forecasted to make them outstanding value contracts. As a result, all 3 players have essentially become trade bait (Hall past, Eberle present, RNH future). That rhetoric likely doesn’t exist if the current GM rates the contracts as outstanding value.

With Connor and Leon, the contract values aren’t being forecast based purely on projected future performance. Both posted legitimate elite production over a full season. Now, the sample sizes aren’t as definitive as you’d like before throwing around lottery win scale contracts but that’s the reality of the entry level deal window. If the player posts elite production in the span of their entry level contract, that demarcates them as ‘stud’ and the elite compensation typically follows.

The crux of it is, would you rather overpay an elite player or a middling player? When you break it down on those basis, the slight overpays on both Connor’s and Leon’s contracts (i.e. given the sample size quandary) are entirely more palatable imo than the contracts given to RNH and Eberle.

I especially like the fact that Chiarelli has been able to assess these players in the postseason. Ultimately how they perform in that crucible is really what you pay top dollar for imo.

I cringe to consider what the narrative would be had the Oilers finished bottom 5 in the League and the Devils made the playoffs …. yikes!!! But that didn’t happen …

For Years the Oilers have been searching, not just for good, but for great players …. We now have them at all positions and part of the program is that you HAVE TO PAY excellent players …

We have McD, Drai, Oscar, Larsson, Talbot locked up … That is a core that you can build around. All teams have cap issues, except the crappy ones … The Oilers are loaded with up and coming players and have some savvy vets as well …

Players come and go, that’s life in pro sports … I embrace what we do have … And what we do have is

1) The most exciting player in hockey
2) Depth at all positions for the first time in forever
3) A young core of players who are in their prime
4) An excited,optimistic fan base (most)

The Oilers are a true Stanley Cup contender from now until 2026. Whether win or not, remains to be seen, but I cannot think of another Team I would rather be cheering for over the next 8 years !!!!!

Cassandra:
99% of Oiler fans think the Devils regret the Hall trade.Then go read a Devil blog where the trade is universally applauded to this day. Then think on why this is.

I love your clever wit in the afternoon. Besides the usual “Im right you’re wrong end of story” feel to your weekend post, I do have to quibble with this “fact”. Saying the Devil blogs universally applaud the trade is approximately 50% true. In fact, it may be 75% untrue. I know this because a few days after the trade anniversary I was feeling a little nostalgic and we all had a glorious time here debating the merits of the trade 1 year later, but I was also curious what the other side had to say. Just for you I went back and dug up a few beauties:

“After making the Hall trade Shero cant blow it up, its his team and he has to own it.”

“I don’t believe you make the Larsson/Hall deal. If your intentions are to blow up the team one year later.”

“They sold the young future D last year, then they made the Johanssen trade. LOL.”

“wow, compare and contrast Larson and the damaged-goods winger from Edmonton, and you can clearly see the character and integrity of each player, that’s for sure.”

“I’d bet Corey, Kink & Greene would reverse that trade in a minute!”

“Hall is poison”

“Hall, on the other hand, seems to have hit the plateau”

“I would never take Hall over Larsson. We needed Larsson far more than we needed Hall. ”

Of course I cherry picked, but I would say the general mood in the forums was split, a bit more favoring the “undo the trade” side of things. You are much more enjoyable when you are not insisting that opinion is fact.

And to clarify, I’m a big fan of Taylor Hall, I don’t think he is Okposo, I don’t think Draisaitl is Malkin. The Oiler’s main problem was they were collecting star forwards and had swiss cheese covered in shit for defense and goaltending. That was solved at the expense of one of the many elite forwards the team was collecting.

BTW, in a re-draft, it is my opinion that Taylor Hall goes 5th, behind Kucherov, Seguin, Tarasenko, and Panarin since technically that was his draft year, and perhaps even behind Johansen and Faulk.

russ99:
Unless we see a dramatic change in camp, Nuge is a poor fit for this group and this system.

I think he’s for the year regardless, since Todd can utilize him as an effective tough minutes two-way center, he’s got a good nose for defense, and hopefully he can give us good secondary scoring, though we could see a point drop-off depending on linemates.

Pump-and-dump aside or barring a dramatic change, IMO his top 6 time is done here, he’s too poor on the wall and in the tough areas to be a RW on McDavid’s line, and a poor sandpaper-like fit at center with Lucic and his winger, either Slepyshev or Strome.

Bottom line, Todd/Chia can get a better 2-way tough minutes center with faceoff acumen and some toughness next summer for a lot less than 3yrs/$6M

Besides, the Oilers are all about the McDavid cluster now, not the rebuild cluster.

jm363561:
Just to remind everyone that the FAHA* exemption currently applies but come September every time Taylor Hall is mentioned on the site an angel in heaven loses its wings.

* Fuck All Happens in August.

Amen Brother…

Now as for Connor McDavid…I’m going to get fat this winter watching him play. It’s the only reason I pay for Optik TV. I haven’t look hard enough into the android boxes to satisfy myself that I can let go of Telus yet. Any experts out there?

Now as for Connor McDavid…I’m going to get fat this winter watching him play. It’s the only reason I pay for Optik TV. I haven’t look hard enough into the android boxes to satisfy myself that I can let go of Telus yet. Any experts out there?

I got smoothstreams add on for Kodi before the playoffs and it worked great, no issues, HD, american or Canadian feed. It basically gets all the sports, UFC, HBO boxing etc. $20 a month if you know how to do that sort of thing.

Do you think PDO is negatively correlated from one period to the next? Would you expect players who outscore their opponents by a fair bit over a small number of games to have average PDO? Aren’t their percentages going to be higher than average in this case? Are you saying outscoring in Drai’s case is explained by PDO? What does PDO explain? Do you always infer from high PDO that the player is lucky but not good? Do you think Drai is the next John Druce? Do you think PDO tells us anything at all about underlying skill? Or are you fully committed to outshooting as the only way to win?