Sunday, November 20, 2011

WEEKLY TECH VIEW FOR SENSEX AND NIFTY FOR THE WEEK
STARTING FROM 21ST NOV. 2011
:

SENSEX and NIFTY both got some support at one BULLISH GAP on
EOD charts AND as suggested in our daily TECH VIEW on 18th November.

But through the week both indices fell sharply as SENSEX
closed below 17200 and as NIFTY closed below 5156.

Also note that we had given clear advise to sell on rise
once NIFTY failed to close above 5205 on 14th November.

We said on Friday that NIFTY will have a corrective rise
from the BULL GAP between 4827-4872 levels and NIFTY made a low of 4837 and
close at 4905 and we had given a down side target of 4833 which was achieved on
Friday too.

In our weekly chart book dated 081111 we said this,

“For NIFTY a close below 5156 and
for SENSEX a close below 17100 will put all the bullish hopes to an end.

The stochastics on weekly chart for
both indices is now reaching overbought zone so it will be better if both
reaches their targets during this week else it will enter another corrective
down side from the next week or so.

Such small range bound markets are
difficult to predict and we shall wait for the breach of small ranges.

And by all means the last upside
still does not look to be a new BULL RUN.”

The last sentence said it all and once again after catching
a massive upside up to 5400 we did not miss the severe down side as well.

NOW WHAT ?

16641-16744 is the price zone which will prove strong
resistance if SENSEX moves up in the next week.

we can not ignore the bullish gap support at 16148-16044
zone but,the follow up bounce must be strong enough to close above 16744 for a meaningfull rally.

For the medium term perspective 17200-17300 zone becomes THE
MOST IMPORTANT TREND DECIDER LEVELS NOW THEN EVER BEFORE.

For NIFTY there is a support at 4837 level as it is a
BULLISH GAP area and as NIFTY has produced a LONG LEGGED DOJI candle reversal
pattern we may see a few days up move .

4989-5033 price zone is an important resistance zone for
NIFTY and only a close above it can have something for bulls and every such
rise up to 5156-5177 will be considered as CORRECTIVE only.

As we have been suggesting since 8th November
2011 that STRENGTH OR WEAKNESS in cnx BANK NIFTY will play a very crucial role
and as on Friday it seems that BANK NIFTY has weakened further so this
particular index is going to to be A MAJOR DRAG for our markets for next few
months.

The supposed inverted HEAD & SHOULDER pattern is about
to fail and so it will have further damaging impact on BANK STOCKS.

It is prudent to have a look at what we projected about
SENSEX and NIFTY FOR THE YEAR 2011 IN PRESENT SITUATION because one/two years
BULL AND BEAR cycles are part of long term SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH PICTURE.

There is a strong possibility of NIFTY AND SENSEX getting
some supports around 4720 and 15700 levels respectively and if we don’t see a
major recovery from there NIFTY will find strong support around 4538 BUT there
will be a FREE FALL below 4500.

Friday, November 4, 2011

SENSEX: today we gave SENSEX support level of 17273 and it
made a low of 17276 and bounced back sharply from lows to close in GREEN.

Remember we have been suggesting that the zone of BULLISH
GAP and previous resistance levels of 17100-17215 is very crucial support and a
bounce from there will be positive.

17278
is the level to watch on closing basis for next few days as a STOPLOSS level
for short term longs

NIFTY : for NIFTY also our support level was 5205 and NIFTY
made a low of 5201 also since last 3 days we have been clearly saying that the
GAP level of 5219 and 5156-5177 zone is crucial support and today future NIFTY
made a low of 5219 and closed above 5300 which is very positive.

NIFTY looks to have ended the small correction and next
targets seems to be 5420-5475 zone.

Stoploss for short term longs should now be placed at 5201
on closing basis.

Also there is a BEARISH GAP at 5314 NIFTY level so some
profit booking is expected around that level.