WIND, PLUS SOLAR, PLUS STORAGE, IN NEW ENGLAND

Based on the plan of eliminating fossil fuel plants (they emit CO2 and particulates) and nuclear fuel plants (they are alleged to be dangerous) by 2050, the existing gas, nuclear, coal and oil generating plants would be decommissioned and no new ones would be built.

The storage systems serve to cover wind and solar lulls, which occur at random throughout the year, and seasonal variations. There is no way one can close down nuclear, oil, gas and coal plants and not replace them with energy storage systems.

Often the combined output of wind plus solar is at near-zero levels during many hours of the year. See URL, click on Renewables. In the Fuel Mix Chart, refreshed every 15 minutes, you will see the instantaneous wind and solar percent in New England.

The ISO-NE spreadsheet in the URL shows daily generation of wind and solar during January 2017. Solar output was 508 MWh and wind was 1,987 MWh on 20 January 2017. During that day, wind and solar varied from minute to minute, with some hours at near zero.

Hydro-Quebec Building New Plants, Upgrading Others: Below items 1 through 4 would enable H-Q to have at least 5000 MW x 8766 x 0.60 = 26,298,000 MWh/y, or 26.3 TWh, for export via new power lines that are being proposed, in addition to existing exports. If that electricity were not there, would various private entities propose HVDC power lines worth billions of dollars?

1) Hydro-Québec Production obtained the necessary approvals to build a 1,550-MW hydroelectric complex on the Rivière Romaine, north of the municipality of Havre-Saint-Pierre on the north shore of the St. Lawrence. The complex will consist of four hydro plants, Romaine 1, 2, 3 and 4, with total average output of 8.0 TWh/y; CF 0.60.

2) Other power plants up north are being refurbished (better water flow) and being upgraded with more efficient turbines, i.e., will produce more electricity.

3) Existing plants not being fully utilized (water over the spillways instead of through the turbines, especially in summer).

4) H-Q building future hydro plants and wind systems.

Quebec, New Brunswick and New York supply about 20.8 million MWh/y of electricity to the NE grid. See table 3.

Alt. 1 shows, the battery cost would be about $260 billion, at $250/kWh delivered as AC.

Alt. 2 shows, the battery cost would be about $166 billion, at $250/kWh delivered as AC.

A significant percentage of the battery capital cost would be repeated every 15 years to replace the batteries.

Tables 4 and 6 have more detail.

Table 1

Alt. 1

Alt. 1

Alt. 1

Alt. 2

Alt. 2

Alt.2

Wind and Solar Lull

1 day lull

4-day lull

(2) 4-day Lulls

1-day lull

4-day lull

(2) 4-day lulls

$billion

$billion

$billion

$billion

$billion

$billion

Capacity build-out

100.15

100.15

100.15

69.68

69.68

69.68

Grid expansion

15.02

15.02

15.02

10.45

10.45

10.45

Total

115.17

115.17

115.17

80.13

80.13

80.13

Transmission to Canada

0

0

0

15.02

15.02

15.02

NE Storage; $250/kWh

32.47

129.87

259.73

20.71

82.85

165.71

Total

147.64

245.04

374.90

115.87

178.00

260.86

Summary of Battery Capacities of Alternatives

Batteries are rated to discharge at a power level, MW, for a period of hours. The correct way of stating a battery rating 1 MW / 4 MWh of delivered AC. Prices should be stated as $/kWh of delivered AC.

A battery system typically is not charged to more than 95% and not discharged to less than 25%, to ensure longer battery life, i.e., a maximum of 70% of the stored charge is available.

For 1.04 TWh delivered as AC to the HV grid, the stored charge would need to be about 1.04/(0.93 x 0.70) = 1.6 TWh.

Additional build-outs of generating plants (wind, solar, bio, hydro, etc.) are required to offset the round-trip losses when storage systems are a part of the electric grid.

Storage systems can provide services that generate revenues, but those revenues are just a small return on the invested capital cost, if all O&M, financing, and subsidy costs are properly accounted for, which usually is not the case. See URLs and APPENDIX 10.

About 84.9% of the NE system load is generated from various sources in New England. See table 3.

Table 3/2016 ISO-NE data

Generation

Generation

System Load

Generation

GWh

%

GWh

% of system load

Total Generation

105572

100.0

124416

84.9

Gas

52059

49.3

52059

41.8

Nuclear

32745

31

32745

26.3

Renewables

10231

9.7

10231

8.2

- Refuse

3316

3.1

3316

2.7

- Wood

3200

3

3200

2.6

- Wind

2519

2.4

2519

2.0

- Solar

658

0.6

658

0.5

- Landfill Gas

496

0.5

496

0.4

- Methane

42

0.04

42

0.0

Steam

0

0

0

0.0

Hydro

7465

7.1

7465

6.0

Coal

2555

2.4

2555

2.1

Oil

517

0.5

517

0.4

Other (c)

0

0

0

0.0

Net Flow over External Ties

20803

16.7

- Québec

12285

9.9

- New Brunswick

4842

3.9

- New York

3675

3.0

Pumping Load

-1959

-1.6

Net Energy for Load

100.0

124416

100.0

Alternative 1

Turnkey Capital Cost: Table 5 shows an estimate of the capital cost required for the build-outs, including grid augmentation and expansion, and storage for a 1-day lull.

Table 4/Capital Cost

Existing

Added

Total

Cost

MW

MW

MW

$million/MW

$billion

Wind

1377

12393

13770

2.5

30.98

Solar

1918

17262

19180

3.5

60.42

Refuse

540

2160

2700

3.5

7.56

Hydro

1703

341

2044

3.5

1.19

100.15

Grid expansion

0.15

15.02

115.17

Transmission to Canada

0.00

Storage

32.47

Turnkey capital cost

147.64

Turnkey Capital Cost of Storage Systems:

Table 5

20-Jan-17

Factor

Future

Source

Load

Generation

MWh

MWh

Gas

136322

0

Nuclear

96491

0

Refuse

19540

5

97700

Wood

8767

1

8767

Wind

1987

10

19870

Solar

509

10

5090

NE Hydro

25899

1.2

31079

Coal

2766

0

Oil

90

0

Other

40

1

40

External ties

56995

1

56995

Pumping load

-5367

1

-5367

Total

344039

214174

Shortfall from storage, MWh as AC

129865

$/kWh as AC; See Note

250

Turnkey capital cost; $billion

32.47

Alternative 2

Based on ISO-NE generation and load data for 2016, the storage capacity to cover seasonal variations would be about 8 TWh, delivered as AC to the HV grid. Generation from all sources would be stored in the battery systems. Based on the above-assumed generation, the system would be:

- Charged at about 3 TWh at the start of January

- Charged at about 8 TWh at the end of May

- Fully discharged at the end of September

- Charged at about 3 TWh from the start of December to the end of January

1) Generation from all sources have to cover demand, plus provide electricity due to storage losses.

2) Items 2 and 3 would be on a 24/7/365 basis.

3) The storage system would provide the peaking, filling-in and balancing services.

Turnkey Capital Cost: Table 7 shows an estimate of the capital cost required for the build-outs, including grid augmentation and expansion, and storage for a 1-day lull.

Table 6/Capital Cost

Existing

Added

Total

Cost

MW

MW

MW

$million/MW

$billion

Wind

1377

6885

8262

2.5

20.66

Solar

1918

7672

11508

3.5

40.28

Refuse

540

2160

2700

3.5

7.56

Hydro

1703

341

2044

3.5

1.19

69.68

Grid expansion

0.15

10.45

80.14

Transmission to Canada

15.02

Storage

20.71

Turnkey capital cost

115.87

Turnkey Capital Cost of Storage Systems:

Table 7

20-Jan-17

Factor

Future

Source

Load

Generation

MWh

MWh

Gas

136322

0

Nuclear

96491

0

Refuse

19540

5

97700

Wood

8767

1

8767

Wind

1987

6

11922

Solar

509

6

3054

NE Hydro

25899

1.2

31079

Coal

2766

0

Oil

90

0

Other

40

1

40

Net Flow over External Ties

56995

2

113990

Pumping Load

-5367

1

-5367

Total

344039

261185

Shortfall from storage, MWh as AC

82854

$/kWh as AC

250

Turnkey capital cost; $billion

20.71

APPENDIX 1

Wind and Solar Energy Lulls and Energy Storage in Germany: This article describes in detail the storage requirements to cover a 100-hour wind and solar lull, followed by a 50-hour lull a few days later during the winter. This requires the availability of:

- Enough electricity generation (wind, solar, hydro, wood, refuse, etc.) to recharge the battery systems in a few days, including charging losses of about 10%, plus serve the demand (a very tall order), or

- An even greater battery storage capacity to serve demand during the 2nd lull, or

- Source energy is the energy taken from coalmines, oil and gas wells, and forests for conversion to electricity and heat.

- Primary energy = source energy - energy used for exploration, extraction, processing and transport of fuels (coal, oil, gas, biofuels, wastes, etc.) to users, such as fuel to electricity generating plants, or process plants, or buildings, or vehicles, etc. That means it has not been subjected to any conversion or transformation process.

The Jacobson WWS Studies: Jacobson, an environmental professor at Stamford University, California, performed several WWS studies of which one of them claimed all of US primary energy could be provided by “Wind, Water and Solar” by 2050.

Because of the weather dependency and seasonality of wind and solar, huge quantities of stored electricity are required. The stored electricity must be immediately made available all over the US, as needed by demand, 24/7/365.

He relied mainly on the thermal storage of concentrated solar power, CSP, systems in the US southwest. The stored electricity would be distributed to the rest of the US, via a US-wide, HVDC overlay grid (a $400 billion system), connected at many points to the existing HVAC grids. See URL.

Historic Build-Out of Wind Capacity in New England: Annual additions of wind turbine build-outs varied from about 139.3 MW in 2009 to 341 MW in 2016. If a 300 MW build-out rate were maintained for the next 10 years, then 1379, existing + 3000, new = 4379 MW would be installed by 2026. It would take about 4 decades to implement Alternative 1, which assumes 1379 x 10 = 13790 MW would be installed at some future date.

- It is always minimal early mornings and late afternoons/early evenings

- It is minimal much of the winter

- It is near zero with snow and ice on the panels.

- It varies with variable cloudiness, which would excessively disturb distribution grids with many solar systems, as happens in southern California and southern Germany on a daily basis. See Note.

- During summer, the best solar month is up to 4 times the worst winter month; that ratio is 6 in Germany.

- New England has the lowest capacity factor (about 0.145, under ideal conditions) of any region in the US, except some parts of the US Northwest.

If we were to rely on wind and solar for most of our electricity, massive energy storage systems (GWh-scale in case of Vermont) would be required to cover multi-day wind lulls, multi-day overcast/snowy periods, and seasonal variations. See URL.

Table 2 shows the loads, GWh, on the New England electric grid for the 2000 - 2016 period, as seen by ISO-NE. There is a tiny quantity of “before the meter” generation, such as residential rooftop solar, which is not seen by ISO-NE.

There has been no load growth for since 2010, due to energy efficiency measures and a small quantity of before the meter generation used by owners of rooftop solar systems, such as residences.

Cancellation of Offshore Wind Turbine Plant: As is well known by now, Cape Wind, 468 MW, started in 2001, turnkey capital cost $2.6 billion, $5550/kW, to be located south of Nantucket, highly visible to many multi-millionaires summering on the Island, has finally been cancelled as of 1 December 2017. See URLs.

The negotiated Cape Wind power purchase agreement, PPA, called for 18.7 c/kWh the first year, increasing at 3.5% per year for 20 years, to reach 37.2 c/kWh in the 20th year. These are the prices at which the variable, intermittent electricity would be sold to a utility. See URL.

NOTE: Purposely, I did not consider any build-outs of offshore wind, as that electricity generation would have been at least 2 times more costly than from 2000 ft.-high ridgelines. It would have made worse an already bad situation. See URL.

Wind and Solar Capacity at End 2016: Table 1 shows the installed wind and solar capacity and generation at end 2016. The solar is before and after the meter.

- The generation by wind is greater than in table 1, because a CF = 0.262 was used, and it was assumed all wind turbines were operated the entire year.

- The generation by solar is greater than in table 1, because a CF = 0.145 was used, and it was assumed all solar systems were operated the entire year.

Table 10/Year

Capacity

Generation

% of NE generation

2016

Installed MW

MWh

NE Wind

1377

3,162,544

3.0

NE Solar

1918

2,353,846

2.2

APPENDIX 9

If a lithium-ion battery is rated at 1 MW/4 MWh AC, it can deliver a 1 MW level of AC power for 4 hours. The stored energy is 4/0.93/0.70 = 6.14 MWh DC, because the unit would be maximally charged up to 95% and minimally discharged down to 25% to preserve life, i.e., 6.14/0.93 = 6.60 MWh AC enters the battery. The delivered 4 MWh AC depletes the battery by 4/0.93 = 4.30 MWh DC. The remaining charge, 6.14 – 4.30 = 1.84 MWh DC, stays in the battery. Usually, batteries have a maximum discharge of 50% or less.

APPENDIX 10

100% RE folks often talk about wind and solar being so competitive with fossil and nuclear. Those RE folks likely have near-zero experience designing energy systems, but pontificate anyway, and get listened to by legislators and bureaucrats. What 100% RE folks do not mention is the various costs charged to the public, which make wind and solar appear less costly/kWh than in reality:

1) The cost of storage systems required for accommodating the variability and intermittency of wind and solar.

New England Will Have Brownouts and Higher Electricity Prices: During the bitter cold stretch that started right after Christmas and continued into 2018, ISO-NE had a tough time keeping the electricity flowing to homes and businesses throughout New England.

Facing a shortage of natural gas because of a dearth of pipeline capacity, they relied on old oil and coal plants to provide enough electricity.

With oil supplies rapidly running low, ISO-NE, responsible for ensuring the region’s electricity supply, said keeping the whole system up and running proved “extremely challenging” as operators “worked around the clock to keep the power flowing and the grid stable.”

NOTE: A less costly alternative would be 4 days x 130 Tesla's 100MW/129MWh Powerpack systems at $20.7 billion. The 520 systems would be spread throughout Vermont.

Tesla/GMP would love to sell all those batteries.

The Powerwalls have a useful life of about 10 – 12 years and likely would be returned to Tesla for “processing”. The cost/kWh of that approach would be expensive.

After the 4-day wind lull, it would need to be windy for some days to provide electric service and recharge the Powerwalls, which would need to be ready for the next wind lull; all that time solar likely would be minimal during winter hours.

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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