They are based on analyzing major league norms, drawing comparisons between each minor leaguer and major leaguers with a similar skill set, each players minor league numbers and skill set, and my gut feeling.

Average year projection is what to expect in a normal, non prime year. Prime year projection would be the numbers I’m expecting in a prime year, typically 27-31.

I hope this helps. I spend a lot of time drawing comparisons and finding a balance between optimism and pessimism.

Nutlaw, if you look at a list of the top ERAs in the major leagues, there simply isn’t a lot of variation in walk rate, apart from some extreme cases. And I don’t expect any of these pitchers to be extreme cases.

Chapman and Chacin having nearly identical BB rates? Outside of Chacin’s recent MLB games he has only one season of over 90+ IP where he posted a 3BB/9. Chapman who is known to over throw and be wild has 90+ IP in Cincy’s AAA affiliate with a 4.94BB/9.

Do you really think that Chacin’s history of solid walk rates will be countered by patient hitters at the MLB level and that Chapman will get himself under control? I don’t.

I do like the Morrison and Friedrich predictions though. Do you crunch any of these guys’ numbers with an MLE calculator?

To defend Matt on the Chapman versus Chacin argument. Chacin has been a professional pitcher for much longer and with each jump in level, his walk rate has increased, illustrating that more experienced hitters back off of his borderline stuff once they get a handle on what he’s throwing.

As for Chapman, he’s still so raw, it’s difficult to project what his walk-rate will be like. Given Chapman’s raw talent and his ability to learn quickly (keep in mind he was only throwing 97-100 mph when Cincy signed him, and with a few minor tweaks to his delivery he’s ramped it up to 104 mph, this is an illustration that his delivery is as raw as it gets) one can speculate that he could significantly lower his walk-rate with time.

To be fair, pre-2009 Chacin’s BB rate actually dropped at every level (R-A+) and he probably would have benefited by staying in AA for all of 2009 and learning better either A. better control or B. get ahead of guys with his fastball earlier.

Chacin is the type of pitcher that if he can command his fastball early in the game he will dominate you and he’s been showing that more and more this season. Other than his first outing back in the rotation in (Aug 17 against LAD) he’s posted a 3.15 BB rate in 20 IP. That to me looks a lot like his 2009 AA rate of 3.05.

However, Chapman does have experience with at least semi-pro level batters from the WBC and from his time in Cuba. This was taken from an article listing Chapman as the #2 prospect from the WBC written for Baseball America: “In the past, Chapman has hit 102 mph during a Serie Nacional game. Chapman also throws a changeup, slider and curveball, but it’s the fastball that has scouts drooling.”

He’s been hitting over 100 for a while now, that’s not news, 105 MPH is impressive but can he consistently throw it for a strike? Can he throw it that hard again once he moves into a rotation? I doubt it. The hardest throwing starters in the game have trouble locating their fastballs when they really trying to reach back and throw some gas. Chapman’s abilities will be ‘enhanced’ as long as he’s in the bullpen because batters wont get the 2nd look and he will know he can reach back and really hurl the ball.

Chapman is young though and if treated carefully could really be an epic pitcher for years to come. If he gets his control fixed he’s a front of the rotation guy, if not he’s an amazing reliever. If he can’t really get that third pitch nailed down he could be an ‘ace’ of a closer. It’s difficult to project him but I estimate his BB’s to be much higher. I’d say that for a non-prime year 89 BB’s in 200 IP is realistic while I’d guess about 67 could be very realistic for Chacin in a non-prime year.

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