WEEK 2 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 11/25/13)

Welcome to Week 2 of the basketball version of the #KPI. Football data through Week 13 can be found here or here. #KPI Basketball stays updated here as well. Now that we are already 16% of the way through the season, numbers are starting to mean something.

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season (through Sunday, November 24): Note that because strength of schedule increases as the season progresses, there is increased margin for error.

#KPI Notes:

Virtually all numbers that have trended upward this season have begun to normalize. Points (74.1 PPG in Week 2; 73.1 PPG in Week 3), Possessions (71.0 in Week 2; 69.9 in Week 3), Field Goal Attempts (58.1 in Week 2 to 57.2 in Week 3), Free Throw Attempts (24.0 in Week 2 to 23.3 in Week 3) and Personal Fouls (20.5 in Week 2 to 19.9 in Week 3) are all trending downward.

Teams are averaging 21.3 fouls and 25.4 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less. Teams are averaging 19.4 fouls and 22.2 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.

Points Per Game: Up 8.9% (6.01 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 73.5 PPG: Through the first 17 days of the 2012-13 season, teams were averaging 67.6 PPG (an 8.8% increase this year compared to the first 17 days of last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws. In 2013-14, 51.6% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.0% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.4% from made free throws. The net increase is +2.66 points from made 2′s, +0.60 points from made 3′s and +2.73 points from made free throws. 73.5 PPG is the highest average since 1994-95 (74.2 PPG).

Average Margin Per Game: +17.1 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +16.2 PPG through the first 17 days of the season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 6.2% (4.11 possession per game); from 66.7 to 70.8 possessions per game. More fouls and free throw attempts per game makes for shorter possessions, and hence more possessions.

Points Per Possession: Up 2.6%; from 1.012 to 1.038: This is likely the result of a greater likelihood of making a free throw or two to making a field goal.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 5.1% (2.83 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 57.8 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 43.8%, up from 43.3% last year. Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.815 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.787 FGA per possession this year). Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 1995-96 (58.5 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 4.6% (0.83 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 19.0 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 33.6%, down from 34.1% last year. 3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 20.9% (4.12 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 23.9 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 68.8%, down from 69.3% last year. Teams are making 2.73 more free throws per game this year. Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1971-72 (25.6 FTA/game).

Rebounds: Up 5.2% (1.80 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 36.3 rebounds: Possessions and shots increase, so it only makes sense for rebounds to proportionately increase as well.

Assists: Up 1.0% (0.13 assists per game); from 12.8 to 13.0 assists: Assists per made field goal are down slightly from 53.8% to 51.1% of made baskets being paired with an assist.

Turnovers: Up 0.1% (0.01 turnovers per game); 13.30 to 13.31 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.1%. 19.9% of possessions ended in a turnover in 2012-13 while 18.8% of possessions have resulted in a turnover so far in 2013-14.

Personal Fouls: Up 15.6% (2.76 fouls per game); 17.7 to 20.4 fouls: Teams are averaging 0.86 fouls per free throw attempt, up slightly from 0.89 fouls per free throw attempt last year. This means teams are getting to the bonus more often. Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 1978-79 (20.6 fouls per game).

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season. Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.