The Ashes 2013: Alastair Cook's decisions as captain hold the key to England's success against Australia

At 10.30 am on Wednesday the waiting will be over and, weather willing,
Alastair Cook and Michael Clarke will walk to the middle of Trent Bridge to
begin the 327th Test match between England and Australia.

Responsibility: England captain Alastair Cook must react in the right way to his Test series decisionsPhoto: ACTION IMAGES

Emerging from a pavilion built for the Ashes Test of 1899, the two captains will look timeless figures in their blazers and caps, as they should. They are simply the latest in a line of many distinguished cricketers who have competed in this drama since 1877, although the Ashes urn was not made until Christmas 1882.

This drama is partly a medieval mystery play: a series of tableaux, such as Dr W G Grace making his last Test appearance here, aged 50, and Sir Ian Botham his first, and the shock when the first pair of fast bowlers the world had seen, Jack Gregory and Ted McDonald, blew England aside in the opening Test of 1921 and English cricket realised how much had been lost during the first World War.

It is partly a Hollywood serial, too: Kevin Pietersen will make sure of that, by inspiring everyone to either love or loathe him.

For the next two months even people uninterested in cricket will want to know the score and who is winning this test of each country’s manhood.

It will be a regular item on the evening news, as no other of England’s Test matches are.

Every England supporter in the land seems convinced that Cook will lead England to an emphatic victory and retain the urn, the only question being whether Australia might just squeeze a consolation win once the series has been decided.

It mirrors the build-up to the home series of 1989 – when Australia won 4-0.

It is also worth pointing out to those prophesying clean-sweeps that England have never won as many as four Tests in a home Ashes series, and even in 1956 and 1985 when Australian cricket was at its lowest ebb the margins were 2-1 and 3-1; and that Australia have still won more Tests in England than England have, 47 to 45.

They may have only one great player, in Clarke, but there is no such thing as a bad Australian Test team.

Of all the themes to be played out in this coming drama, perhaps the single most important one is how Cook reacts.

Clarke, his counterpart, has nothing to lose: the realistic aim is for his young team to grow sufficiently for them to compete with England this summer then maybe, thanks to Australia’s greater depth in fast bowling, win next winter.

Ever since he was a choirboy singing in front of critical audiences, Cook has become a master at blocking out noise and concentrating on the task in hand – until, perhaps, the last six months.

The first sign came in the Nagpur Test when, so desperate to lead his side home, he froze in sight of the finishing line and a historic England series win in India. He scored 14 runs off 121 balls.

It was a different format, but again the knockout stages of the Champions Trophy did not bring out the best in Cook’s batting – his captaincy, yes, but not his own batting.

He made fatal errors in shot-selection in both the semi-final and final, errors which he might not have made before he bore the weight of captaincy.

Above all, perhaps, Cook is sufficiently versed in the ways of Test cricket to know there is no certainty, whatever England’s supporters may think.

A sudden rebel tour of South Africa, led by Mike Gatting, sabotaged England in 1989. Last week a fast short ball from Tymal Mills that severely bruised Graeme Swann’s right forearm nearly had the same effect: Swann, the single most important factor in this series.

Would James Tredwell have slotted in seamlessly? No. Kent’s off-spinner, admirable replacement in one-day matches, has yet to take a first-class wicket this season in more than 100 overs.

Monty Panesar, as a left-arm spinner pitted against Australia’s naïve left-handers, would not exploit the angles like an off-spinner; and a tail of Stuart Broad, who has not reached 40 in a Test for a year and a half, James Anderson and Panesar would be swept away.

At least Cook has far more senior players to depend on than Clarke. Cook’s fellow batsmen can muster 57 Test centuries (Clarke’s likely line-up 12), while his new opening partner, Joe Root, seems to have as good a temperament for the grand occasion as Cook himself when starting out, and the keenest of cricket brains, and the sense of humour essential in a two-month battle.

One of the simpler decisions that Cook will have to make before the toss on Wednesday is who to leave out of the squad that was announced on Saturday afternoon, assuming nothing untoward in the Nottingham nets in the next two days.

Trent Bridge is Tim Bresnan’s most successful Test ground: he has swung the ball and taken 15 wickets at 15 runs each in his two Tests, and his Test batting average there is a tidy 140.

Lord’s, on the other hand, is one of his least successful, ever since he was clobbered by Bangladesh’s Tamim Iqbal. Steve Finn loves Lord’s, and it is good to bring in a fresh pair of legs for the second of back-to-back Tests.

Yes, the first Test is due to end next Sunday and the Lord’s Test to start the following Thursday.

Part of England’s campaign strategy is to maximise the Lord’s effect on impressionable young Australians who have never been there before, by limiting their familiarisation to a couple of days.

It was designed to overturn the most remarkable sequence in Test history.

Australia lost one Test at Lord’s in the 20th century, when they were caught on a wet wicket in 1934. Even when they were hopeless in 1956 and 1985 they still won at Lord’s.

Hence the plan to catch them off their guard, and it worked a treat in 2009 when Mitchell Johnson was overwhelmed and pitched halfway down on the opening day.

Meanwhile, let the 136-year-old sporting battle resume – without any of the shocks of ’21.

Pitch watch The strip for the opening Ashes Test this week will be the same pitch that has been used for the last three Test matches at Trent Bridge.

Overhead conditions are the key along with the water table. If the weather is sunny and the table is low, it is ideal for batting.

If the weather conditions are cloudy and there is a high water table, the ball can boomerang.

Tactics Win the toss – and look upwards, but not before consulting local knowledge in the form of Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann for England, and Ed Cowan for Australia, who has been playing for Nottinghamshire in the County Championship.

On the opening day of an Ashes series there is an added case for bowling first, and settling the nerves, because one bad batting session can lose the game.

Last meeting The previous time England played Australia at Trent Bridge was in the epic series of 2005 when the hosts finally got their noses in front in an Ashes contest – the first time England had done so since 1997.

After making Australia follow on, England wobbled alarmingly in their chase of 129, collapsing to 116 for seven before Ashley Giles and Matthew Hoggard steered them home.

Umpires Aleem Dar of Pakistan and Kumar Dharmasena, the former Sri Lanka off‑spinner, are the men in the middle – and two of the best. Almost as important, as the decision review system will be used, is the television or third umpire Marais Erasmus of South Africa.

All three have played first-class cricket.

Weather watch The early forecast this week is for hot, sunny weather with temperatures in the mid to high twenties and little or no wind.

That could mean a long, hard day for whichever team are put in the field. Maximum forecast temperature for Wednesday is 24C, Thursday and Friday 28C, Saturday 29C and Sunday 30C.