While major media outlets are discussing GDP growth numbers for the third quarter, the real story is our flawed measurement systems. To measure actual economic activity in the domestic economy and US economic direction the chart above offers a real composite. It includes small business and manufacturing that is often overlooked in GDP surveys.

Lance Roberts notes in reference to the graph above, “despite the recent bounce in some of the economic data, it is important to note the entire complex of indicators still operate at levels more normally associated with weak economic environments versus expansionary ones.” The translation to that is simple – we are still in a very weak economy and in a fragile state. The financial chart above gives clear visual of that.

It seems we have all had enough of this presidential election cycle. Turns out, the American consumer has too. Bloomberg recently put out Conference Board’s consumer confidence index that measured key swing states for 2016. These states have been the primary target of stump speech rhetoric and seemingly endless commercials.

Reporter Vince Golle noted that, “overall consumer confidence fell to a three-month low of 98.6 in October from 103.5 a month earlier.”

Financial Factors Vary By Age

Charlie Wells at the WSJ notes that “Every new stage of life brings new financial strategies we need to follow. And at every stage we find new ways not to follow those strategies, costing ourselves money and jeopardizing our security.”

The chart above shows the generational disconnect of how each group approaches investment and savings. Then again, if you have a millennial relative within your periphery – this story is probably all too evident.

Next Leg In the Rally? Extreme Positioning in Gold, Silver, and 10-Year Bonds Has Moderated (Gavekal Capital)

Eric Bush shows why gold is set for the next step in a market rally in the financial charts below.From the chart above Bush concludes that “since the summer of 2015 the long gold, long 10-year US treasury trade bonds has basically been one in the same (silver and treasury bonds have moved in tandem as well).”Sourced: Gavekal Capital

Bush also notes that although gold had a strong showing after Brexit, the gold market has since calmed. As can be seen in the graph above regarding gold futures, “commercial traders have now backed off their extreme positions which could mean that the next step in the rally in gold, silver, and bond prices could be underway shortly.”

The term “money velocity” can be lumped into the Fed speak index of gargle words. But what it really boils down to the rate at which money is used to buy goods and services in a domestic market. According to this aggregate of data found above, the rate at which China has fallen amongst the other major players should be concerning. As Harry Dent clearly spells it out, “China’s money velocity is even lower than Japan’s most dismal “coma economy” that is surviving solely on endless QE as they age and see exponential growth in debt levels… Do you get this? China is worse than Japan when you reflect the truth of money velocity.”

Clinton Scandal Hits Mexican Peso, Again

In other news… FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress stating that it was in the process of evaluating recent email leaks regarding Hillary Clinton. In the letter Comey outlined that the Bureau was beginning the process to “determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation.”

What is more interesting is the reaction on the market. And, we are not even talking about the US. CNBC broke the story just after 2PM EST that the “Mexican peso drops 1% against US dollar after Clinton email news.” As you can see by the financial chart below (indicated by the included highlight arrow) the peso had an immediate reaction to the news.

While the peso will likely normalize back to its regular trading, the volatile nature of market reactions to the election are worth monitoring as we get closer to November 8th. If polling trends tighten further, scandals continue to leak and candidates whither – expect markets to have all sorts of reactionary measurements.

About Craig Wilson:

Craig Wilson is the Daily Reckoning’s Associate Editor. Prior working at Agora Financial, he was a researcher and writer who covered economics and international affairs. His work has appeared in The Nation, Bill Moyers, Tom Dispatch and various other outlets. Craig holds a Master’s degree in International Affairs.