Looks more like it was ejected south...like it was shot out of a convective gun

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Looks like another under-performer--just two days ago models had this eventually becoming a Cat 3, and now its being pummeled with shear that is again increasing contrary to what the models show. Very likely that Humberto part II will remain a sheared minimal to moderate tropical storm from what I'm seeing.

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Hammy wrote:Looks like another under-performer--just two days ago models had this eventually becoming a Cat 3, and now its being pummeled with shear that is again increasing contrary to what the models show. Very likely that Humberto part II will remain a sheared minimal to moderate tropical storm from what I'm seeing.

Is it just me, or have the models been particularly bad this year?

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Hammy wrote:Looks like another under-performer--just two days ago models had this eventually becoming a Cat 3, and now its being pummeled with shear that is again increasing contrary to what the models show. Very likely that Humberto part II will remain a sheared minimal to moderate tropical storm from what I'm seeing.

Is it just me, or have the models been particularly bad this year?

They've been terrible this year. I remember last year the GFS was spot-on in predicting Beryl as well as with Debby's track, and the Euro did quite well on several other storms. It seems that whatever upgrade the models were given this year have utterly destroyed whatever reliability that most of the models used to have, and now they seem to overreact and take weaker storms (or non-existent storms) to major hurricane or simply not develop things that end up developing.

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I now have a slight (just a slight) feeling this shear will increase, like Pewa earlier this year. The models were forecasting all sorts of strange intensities for Pewa, and one even went up to nearly Category 5 status. Time and time again, the official forecasts had to be lowered, because the TUTT hampering it refused to abate. Eventually, the storm perished in the face of strong shear. What was Pewa's peak strength? 75 mph.

In no way am I insulting or degrading the models, in fact, they are extremely useful and a necessity for the official forecasts, but I am once again outlining the pattern of the wind shear in this erratic season. Please do NOT mistake my post for wishcasting.

Remember, I still think Humberto could strengthen, and potentially past storm force, but as Hammy rightfully pointed out, we should not be too surprised if only modest deepening takes place, assuming wind shear does not abate.

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supercane4867 wrote:Future intensification phase rely mostly on interaction with the troughAs long as Humberto can maintain some structure it will have the opportunity to become a non-tropical look hurricane

Can there be non-tropical hurricanes? Will the NHC still issue advisories on it if it becomes non-tropical?

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What do you all think about Humberto? Do you all think it has much more time as a tropical cyclone?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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