The Liberal Party were disadvantaged in 2002 by the retirement of both its
sitting MPs, the long serving Bill Bonde and Tony Rundle. Labor had three
sitting members in Bryan Green, Steven Kons and Brenton Best, along with a
fourth candidate in Mike Gaffney who also polled creditably. Jeremy Rockliff
polled well for the Liberal Party, but the rest of the Liberal vote was
distributed between the other four Liberal candidates, suggested generic Liberal
votes rather than strong personal votes.

On the primary count, Labor had in excess of three quotas, though only Bryan
Green polled more than a quota in his own right. The Liberal Party polled just
short of two quotas, but were far enough ahead of the Green total to avoid
losing a seat to the Greens.

Count 2 distributed the surplus of Bryan Green, and subsequent counts up to
Count 26 excluded the three Independent candidates, Labor candidate Harvey
Clarke and the two lowest Green candidates. In line with the order of candidates
on ballot rotations, over half of Clarke's preferences flowed to fellow Labor
candidate Renai Ellings, with 91% staying within the Labor ticket. 89% of the
Green preferences stayed within the Green ticket. The totals at the end of
Count 26 and change in vote since Count 1 are shown in the table below.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 26

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

+270

32621

53.62

3.2171

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

-199

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons

ALP

+252

8769

14.41

0.8648

Brenton Best

ALP

+237

6709

11.03

0.6616

Mike Gaffney

ALP

+193

5913

9.72

0.5831

Renai Ellings

ALP

+379

1090

1.79

0.1075

Harvey Clarke

ALP

-592

0

0.00

Liberal Party

LIB

+477

20627

33.90

2.0342

Jeremy Rockliff

LIB

+127

8084

13.29

0.7972

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+95

4622

7.60

0.4558

Mike Downie

LIB

+95

3591

5.90

0.3541

Alan Pattison

LIB

+70

3110

5.11

0.3067

Peter Upton

LIB

+90

1220

2.01

0.1203

Greens

GRN

+288

7579

12.46

0.7474

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+703

4646

7.64

0.4582

Clare Thompson

GRN

+280

1597

2.63

0.1575

Felicity Harris

GRN

+546

1336

2.20

0.1318

Carol Jean Reilly

GRN

-640

0

0.00

Patrick Johnson

GRN

-601

0

0.00

Group D

IND

-739

0

0.00

Ungrouped

IND

-307

0

0.00

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+11

11

0.02

0.0011

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

The next two candidates to be excluded were the lowest polling Liberal and
Labor candidates. 92% of Ellings's preferences stayed within the Labor ticket,
but only 89% of Upton's preferences stayed in the Liberal ticket. In a reverse
situation to what occurred in Bass, the higher profile of the remaining Labor
candidates was producing a drift of preferences out of the Liberal ticket.

Of Ellings's 1090 votes, 409 flowed to Mike Gaffney in line with the ordering
of candidates on ballot papers where she appeared in position one, and 423 to
Steven Kons in line with the rotation on ballot papers where Clarke appeared at
the top of the list followed by Ellings. Totals by the end of Count 57 appear
below.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 57

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

-5

32616

53.61

3.2166

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons

ALP

+458

9227

15.17

0.9100

Brenton Best

ALP

+201

6910

11.36

0.6815

Mike Gaffney

ALP

+426

6339

10.42

0.6251

Renai Ellings

ALP

-1090

0

0.00

Liberal Party

LIB

-103

20524

33.74

2.0241

Jeremy Rockliff

LIB

+546

8630

14.19

0.8511

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+208

4830

7.94

0.4763

Mike Downie

LIB

+216

3807

6.26

0.3754

Alan Pattison

LIB

+147

3257

5.35

0.3212

Peter Upton

LIB

-1220

0

0.00

Greens

GRN

+98

7677

12.62

0.7571

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+34

4680

7.69

0.4615

Clare Thompson

GRN

+34

1631

2.68

0.1608

Felicity Harris

GRN

+30

1366

2.25

0.1347

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+10

21

0.03

0.0021

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

The two low polling Green candidates were the next to be excluded between
counts 58 and 115. A total of 2,997 votes were distributed, but only 2,493 (83%)
stayed in the ticket with Paul O'Halloran. 280 votes (9.7%) leak to the Labor
ticket and 176 (5.9%) to the Liberal ticket. At the end of Count 115, even if
the whole of the Labor surplus beyond the third quota were to flow to the
Greens, it would not be enough to get ahead of the second Liberal quota.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 115

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

+280

32896

54.07

3.2442

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons

ALP

+121

9348

15.37

0.9219

Brenton Best

ALP

+96

7006

11.52

0.6909

Mike Gaffney

ALP

+63

6403

10.52

0.6314

Liberal Party

LIB

+176

20700

34.02

2.0414

Jeremy Rockliff

LIB

+75

8705

14.31

0.8585

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+27

4857

7.98

0.4790

Mike Downie

LIB

+44

3851

6.33

0.3798

Alan Pattison

LIB

+30

3287

5.40

0.3242

Greens

GRN

-504

7173

11.79

0.7074

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+2493

7173

11.79

0.7074

Clare Thompson

GRN

-1631

0

0.00

Felicity Harris

GRN

-1366

0

0.00

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+48

69

0.11

0.0068

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

Counts 116 to 141 exclude the lowest polling Liberal candidate Alan Pattison,
with 95% of preferences staying within the Liberal ticket, keeping the party
above the second quota.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 141

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

+122

33018

54.27

3.2562

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons

ALP

+52

9400

15.45

0.9270

Brenton Best

ALP

+30

7036

11.57

0.6939

Mike Gaffney

ALP

+40

6442

10.59

0.6353

Liberal Party

LIB

-179

20521

33.73

2.0238

Jeremy Rockliff

LIB

+1240

9945

16.35

0.9808

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+1330

6187

10.17

0.6102

Mike Downie

LIB

+538

4389

7.21

0.4328

Alan Pattison

LIB

-3287

0

0.00

Greens

GRN

+38

7211

11.85

0.7111

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+38

7211

11.85

0.7111

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+19

88

0.14

0.0087

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

Count 142 excluded the 3,496 primary votes of Liberal Mike Downie, putting
Jeremy Rockliff over a quota as the second elected candidate. Counts 143-189
excluded the remaining 893 votes for Downie, then Count 190 distributed the
1,440 vote surplus of Rockliff. 86% of preferences stayed in the Liberal ticket,
9.4% leaked to Labor and 3.5% to the Greens. At the end of Count 190, the vote
of the only remaining Liberal candidate Brett Whitely has slipped below one
quota, and the Labor surplus is large enough that were it all flow to the
Greens, Paul O'Halloran could win the final vacancy.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 190

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

+411

33429

54.95

3.2967

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons

ALP

+197

9597

15.77

0.9464

Brenton Best

ALP

+102

7138

11.73

0.7039

Mike Gaffney

ALP

+112

6554

10.77

0.6464

Liberal Party

LIB

-627

19894

32.70

1.9619

Jeremy Rockliff (Elected 2)

LIB

+195

10140

16.67

1.0000

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+3567

9754

16.03

0.9619

Mike Downie

LIB

-4389

0

0.00

Greens

GRN

+153

7364

12.10

0.7262

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+153

7364

12.10

0.7262

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+63

151

0.25

0.0149

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

Count 191 excluded the 5,720 primary votes of Mike Gaffney, electing Steven
Kons to the third vacancy. Counts 192-205 distributed preferences received by
Gaffney until Brenton Best was declared elected to the fourth vacancy at Count
205, at which point no Labor candidates remained, and 265 of Clarke's votes
remained to be distributed. 89.7% of Gaffney's voted distributed so far
remained in the Labor ticket, 6.1% leaking to the Greens' Paul O'Halloran, and
2.7% to Liberal Brett Whitely.

At this stage, the votes remaining to be distributed are the 265 remaining
votes for Gaffney, the 1,993 vote surplus of Kons and the 102 vote surplus of
Best. With no more Labor candidates to receive preferences, it would take a flow
of more than 90% to the Greens for Paul O'Halloran to win the final vacancy.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 205

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

-649

32780

53.88

3.2327

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons (Elected 3)

ALP

+2536

12133

19.94

1.1965

Brenton Best (Elected 4)

ALP

+3104

10242

16.83

1.0101

Mike Gaffney

ALP

-6289

265

0.44

0.0261

Liberal Party

LIB

+170

20064

32.98

1.9787

Jeremy Rockliff (Elected 2)

LIB

10140

16.67

1.0000

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+170

9924

16.31

0.9787

Greens

GRN

+384

7748

12.74

0.7641

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+384

7748

12.74

0.7641

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+95

246

0.40

0.0243

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

Counts 206-250 excluded the final 265 votes for Mike Gaffney. 97 votes
(36.6%) flowed to O'Halloran, 94 votes (35.5%) to Whitely and 74 exhausted. Even
if every remaining Labor preference now flowed to O'Halloran, it would not be
enough to get him ahead of Brett Whitely.

Candidate and Party Totals at Count 250

Candidate

Party

Change

Votes

%

Quota

Labor Party

ALP

-265

32515

53.45

3.2066

Bryan Green (Elected 1)

ALP

10140

16.67

1.0000

Steven Kons (Elected 3)

ALP

+0

12133

19.94

1.1965

Brenton Best (Elected 4)

ALP

+0

10242

16.83

1.0101

Mike Gaffney

ALP

-265

0

0.00

Liberal Party

LIB

+94

20158

33.13

1.9880

Jeremy Rockliff (Elected 2)

LIB

10140

16.67

1.0000

Brett Whiteley

LIB

+94

10018

16.47

0.9880

Greens

GRN

+97

7845

12.89

0.7737

Paul O'Halloran

GRN

+97

7845

12.89

0.7737

Exhausted/Loss by Fraction

+74

320

0.53

0.0316

Formal Votes

60838

Quota

10140

The exclusion of the 1,993 vote surplus of Steven Kons was enough to elect
Brett Whitely. 43% of these votes exhausted, 624 (31.3%) flowed to O'Halloran
and 513 (25.7%) to Whitely, enough to elect Whitely to the final vacancy, the
surplus of Brenton Best not needing to be distributed.