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Nothing whatsoever to do with Mars Hill Church in Seattle. Political and Social Blog. A Magazine Forum on public and private thoughts, meanderings, and odds and ends. (Disclaimer: The views held on this blog are our views, and not necessarily the views of any organisation we are involved with or represent)

Latest Party Polls Translated Into Parliamentary Seats

Today this is from of the latest polls from Optinum Research regarding Westminster voting intentions Which gives the following for each of the main parties

LAB: 28%
CON: 22%
BREX: 21%
LDEM: 11%
GRN: 6%
UKIP: 4%

No percentage given for Change UK, but one can hazzard a guess it would be 2% based on process of elimation
Put through the calculations at electoralcalculus.co.uk this would come out as

Party

2017 Votes

2017 Seats

Pred Votes

Gains

Losses

Net Change

Pred Seats

CON

43.5%

318

22.0%

0

104

-104

214

LAB

41.0%

262

28.0%

56

8

+48

310

LIB

7.6%

12

11.0%

11

1

+10

22

UKIP

1.9%

0

4.0%

0

0

+0

0

Green

1.7%

1

6.0%

0

0

+0

1

SNP

3.1%

35

3.7%

20

0

+20

55

PlaidC

0.5%

4

0.7%

0

0

+0

4

ChUK

0.0%

0

2.0%

0

0

+0

0

Brexit

0.0%

0

21.0%

26

0

+26

26

Minor

0.7%

0

1.6%

0

0

+0

0

N.Ire

18

0

0

+0

18

In other words, a minority Labour government, although it has been clear for some while that unless the Conservatives do something drastic, it could lose the next general election. As for Labour the question is whether any of the small parties would support them, and I doubt they will, unless they do a deal with the SNP, which would cause some uproar. As for Change UK, if they want to survive they clearly need to make some drastic moves