We should hear something soon on voter ID

The federal challenge to Texas’s strict voter identification law is pending before the entire Fifth Circuit sitting en banc. The Supreme Court set a soft July 20 deadline for a decision—after that the Court has invited plaintiffs to seek immediate relief for this election before the Supreme Court. There’s nothing technically binding about that date, but I expect we will see a decision by then from the Fifth Circuit, and then, whatever happens, I expect an emergency motion to the Supreme Court for whichever side loses.

Meanwhile, the never ending federal district court challenge to Texas’s redistricting remains pending in San Antonio, with a delay that at this point is as inexplicable as it is inexcusable. That case, when decided, will be on a fast-track appeal to the Supreme Court as well, but with any ruling relevant only for elections after 2016.

We are also waiting for other decisions, and one of those big ones is the appeal to the Fourth Circuit of North Carolina’s strict voting laws. That one, too, will likely end up with a request for emergency relief from SCOTUS.

See here and here for the background. Last August, a three-judge panel at the Fifth Circuit affirmed the lower court ruling that Texas’ voter ID law had a discriminatory effect, and the state asked for an en banc review shortly afterward, mostly for the purpose of dragging things out past the 2016 election. Hasen had previously predicted that the full Fifth would uphold its own ruling, but of course you never know. If they do, then the good news is that a 4-4 SCOTUS split would leave it in place. That’s also the bad news if they don’t. In theory, we should know soon enough. PDiddie, from whom I got the link, has more.