Monday, May 4, 2015

Here is our FINAL REGULAR SEASON installment of the NBA SBPI
[SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2014-2015 season.I did not share this model during the regular season as my selections are heavily dependent on these numbers & I finished the regular season #1 at my monitor with a record of 162-122 / 57.0%.

As a reminder this model uses the Four
Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in
key statistical areas.New this season I
have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to
better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are better scores
(if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower
grades were better).Here is where each
team stands:

POWER

HOME

ROAD

Team

RATING

RATING

RATING

Golden
State

100.7

105.2

100.7

L.A.
Clippers

97.5

101.0

97.5

San
Antonio

95.1

99.1

95.1

Atlanta

95.0

99.0

95.0

Dallas

94.7

97.7

94.7

Memphis

93.7

97.2

93.7

Houston

92.9

96.4

92.9

Toronto

92.5

95.5

92.5

Milwaukee

91.9

94.4

91.9

Portland

91.9

95.4

91.9

Cleveland

91.7

95.2

91.7

Washington

91.6

95.1

91.6

Boston

91.0

93.5

91.0

Oklahoma
City

90.8

94.3

90.8

Chicago

90.3

93.3

90.3

Phoenix

90.3

92.8

90.3

Detroit

90.2

92.2

90.2

New
Orleans

90.1

93.1

90.1

Indiana

89.5

92.0

89.5

Utah

89.3

91.8

89.3

Charlotte

88.2

90.2

88.2

Denver

87.6

89.6

87.6

Miami

87.3

89.3

87.3

Brooklyn

87.1

89.1

87.1

Orlando

86.0

88.0

86.0

L.A.
Lakers

84.8

86.8

84.8

Sacramento

83.1

85.1

83.1

Philadelphia

82.7

84.7

82.7

New
York

81.6

83.6

81.6

Minnesota

80.8

82.8

80.8

Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide
some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or
lower than expected.

Golden State
Warriors: why are they colored yellow?That is because they have the highest rating in my model of any team as
far as I tested back which is the 2002-2003 season.Here are the Top 5 teams using my model over
these last 13 seasons with rating, actual record & season result:

How strong is this Warriors team?My model would have them favored holding
other variables constant against any other NBA team playing in any stadium
besides at the Staples Center vs. the LA Clippers which I would have as a Pick.

Atlanta Hawks:
the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference is the only team from that “weaker”
conference to settle into the Top 7 of the NBA.At home I would have them as a favorite against every other team in the
NBA besides Golden State; in that matchup I would install the Warriors as a
1.5/2 point favorite.

Dallas Mavericks:
the Mavs check in higher than everyone including myself would expect.Most of their strength is driven by how well
they take care of the basketball; that being said their shooting % on both ends
of the floor was only better than the Grizzlies among Western Conference
playoff teams hence their early dismissal at the hands of #7 Houston.

#2 LA Clippers vs.
#3 San Antonio Spurs: as many of us thought when the brackets came out
and through the series these teams should not have met in the 1st
round according to talent & the old eye test.However that is the way the bracket shook out
and the Clippers wound up beating the Spurs in a classic Game 7 Saturday
night.If Chris Paul can get healthy LA
could pose a threat to the Warriors – right now my model would set those lines
at a Pick in LA & Golden State -7.5 at home.

Playoffs: the
lowest ranked team to make the playoffs was Brooklyn who checked in at #24,
sandwiched between #23 Miami & #25 Orlando.The lowest ranked team to win their first round series was Chicago, who
finished at #15.Using the SBPI rankings
here is what the 2nd round matchups look like:

#11 Cleveland vs. #15 Chicago

#4 Atlanta vs. #12 Washington

#2 LA Clippers vs. #7 Houston

#1 Golden State vs. #6 Memphis

Non-Playoff teams: here are the rankings of the teams who
missed the playoffs:

#14 Oklahoma City

#16 Phoenix

#17 Detroit

#19 Indiana

#20 Utah

#21 Charlotte

#22 Denver

#23 Miami

#25 Orlando

#26 LA Lakers

#27 Sacramento

#28 Philadelphia

#29 New York

#30 Minnesota

No surprise the bottom 10 teams along with Detroit, Boston
& Memphis had negative ratings according to my shooting categories.Sacramento & Utah both were crushed by
awful turnover margins (as was Chicago which could make them a very dangerous
team in the playoffs if Rose can play starter’s minutes) – they would seemingly
be in the market to grab a PG.

Thanks for reading.By
next week I will post a playoff’s only power ratings that will isolate
performance using my system in the small sample size that is the playoff’s to
date.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.