Phoenix LXIV: Will You Still Need Me, Will You Still Read Me, on Thread LXIV?

The discussion needs to stay on topic. We are not here to talk about who does or does not care about the people in Glendale, or if they even have a reason to care. This about the situation in Phoenix as it pertains to the NHL, specifically the business aspect. We do not discuss posters on this site. Further violations will result in infractions and bans from the thread.

I still can't understand who in their right mind would be counterparty to the lease with Glendale. The Tohono conspiracy theory actually seems to make the most sense since they probably want the COG to default.

It's astonishing really. They're about to enter into an agreement with a party that will become their single largest creditor and to our knowledge they don't even know who it is, never mind what their true intentions are.

Municipal bankruptcies are extremely rare. Obviously there are a number of them all over the US right now but given the number of municipalities its still rare. Also while the US and the world in general has been through an economic calamity the worst is over and it is past the inflection point and things are getting better. With Tanger coming in you can expect more traffic at Westgate regardless of what the Coyotes do. The Federal Reserve will keep rates low for another year or two so Glendale will be able to refinance its debt.

Worst case scenario is that at some point in the future Glendale tells the Coyotes "we can afford this deal anymore so either take a lower payment or we'll let you leave" then Jamison can go to Hamilton, KC, Portland or wherever there is an open arena with no team or he can sell to PKP in QC or Hansen in Seattle and pocket a nice profit. I don't think the NHL will be as stringent about the relo fees as they were with Atlanta because this time its an owner that was helping the league in the first place being pushed out by his city.

Municipal bankruptcies are extremely rare. Obviously there are a number of them all over the US right now but given the number of municipalities its still rare. Also while the US and the world in general has been through an economic calamity the worst is over and it is past the inflection point and things are getting better. With Tanger coming in you can expect more traffic at Westgate regardless of what the Coyotes do. The Federal Reserve will keep rates low for another year or two so Glendale will be able to refinance its debt.

Worst case scenario is that at some point in the future Glendale tells the Coyotes "we can afford this deal anymore so either take a lower payment or we'll let you leave" then Jamison can go to Hamilton, KC, Portland or wherever there is an open arena with no team or he can sell to PKP in QC or Hansen in Seattle and pocket a nice profit. I don't think the NHL will be as stringent about the relo fees as they were with Atlanta because this time its an owner that was helping the league in the first place being pushed out by his city.

I still doubt anyone would give him ''a nice profit'' for a team that would be chased out of their hometown. Trashers got sold for $110M because it was written all over skies that ASG did not wanted them anymore.

I still doubt anyone would give him ''a nice profit'' for a team that would be chased out of their hometown. Trashers got sold for $110M because it was written all over skies that ASG did not wanted them anymore.

They got $110 million because the NHL said that $60 million would go to them as a relocation fee. Also the NHL pretty much directed the team to Winnipeg. ASG basically got the team as a throw in when they bought the Hawks, neglected it for years, and dumped it the first chance the got. The NHL wanted to make sure they weren't rewarded for being bad owners. Jamison however is a league insider coming in and helping the league out of a jam so they maybe nicer to him and let him pocket some cash in the process.

They got $110 million because the NHL said that $60 million would go to them as a relocation fee. Also the NHL pretty much directed the team to Winnipeg. ASG basically got the team as a throw in when they bought the Hawks, neglected it for years, and dumped it the first chance the got. The NHL wanted to make sure they weren't rewarded for being bad owners. Jamison however is a league insider coming in and helping the league out of a jam so they maybe nicer to him and let him pocket some cash in the process.

Can Bernie Kosar pocket some money too? I am sorry but this is absolutely ludicrous. Gramps may find a nice office at 1251 Avenue of the Americas on the
47th Floor but who exactly is paying him $$$$. Nashville, Florida, Carolina??? Winnipeg??? hahaha

When his attempt to buy the Coyotes fails he will remain an owner of the Sharks with a possible soon to be promotion to NYC and if he is lucky Hansen will add him as a consultant.

This guy is pocketing nothing but kickback$ in the form of job promotion.

l'ill gary, " thanks for gathering here today, I would like to introduce you to the NHL's Director of NHL relocation and expansion, Grampa Greg Jamison" .... "Mr. Jamison is very experienced......... and don't let the grey hair foola ya he is much younger than he looks. We would also like to use this time to announce a major corporate sponsorship with Grecian Formula. Greg will be the major spokesperson along with willy d."

Absolutely ludicrous I say.

What is takin Gramps so long to buy the team? this clown show is about to come to an end. Pure speculation of course.

They got $110 million because the NHL said that $60 million would go to them as a relocation fee. Also the NHL pretty much directed the team to Winnipeg. ASG basically got the team as a throw in when they bought the Hawks, neglected it for years, and dumped it the first chance the got. The NHL wanted to make sure they weren't rewarded for being bad owners. Jamison however is a league insider coming in and helping the league out of a jam so they maybe nicer to him and let him pocket some cash in the process.

The league got a $60 million relocation fee because TNSE had an agreement to purchase an NHL franchise from the NHL for $170 million. the original deal was for the Coyotes for $170 million. TNSE was always paying $170 for an NHL franchise and Atlanta allowed the NHL to pocket $60 million because the league determined the franchise to be worth $110million. this was a good deal for ASG as local buyers were offering in the $55 -$75 million range tokeep the team in Atlanta.

Can Bernie Kosar pocket some money too? I am sorry but this is absolutely ludicrous. Gramps may find a nice office at 1251 Avenue of the Americas on the
47th Floor but who exactly is paying him $$$$. Nashville, Florida, Carolina??? Winnipeg??? hahaha

When his attempt to buy the Coyotes fails he will remain an owner of the Sharks with a possible soon to be promotion to NYC and if he is lucky Hansen will add him as a consultant.

This guy is pocketing nothing but kickback$ in the form of job promotion.

What I was getting at is if he succeeds in buying the Coyotes and then the experiment of the hockey in Arizona proves to be a failure (AGAIN) they will let him make some profit moving the team unlike ASG with the Thrashers. ASG basically got the Thrashers for free, claims it lost a little over $100 million while owning them, and then sold them for $170 million the NHL basically said "oh no you don't." I don't see them doing that with Jamison

The discussion needs to stay on topic. We are not here to talk about who does or does not care about the people in Glendale, or if they even have a reason to care. This about the situation in Phoenix as it pertains to the NHL, specifically the business aspect. We do not discuss posters on this site. Further violations will result in infractions and bans from the thread.

So is there a confirmed meeting tmrw or are they going to just touch base and talk about scheduling some talks?

You can attribute the jump in 2003 to the new arena. Teams always get a boost when they move into a new venue. There is a curiosity fact. The drop in the first playoff season is understandable because it was right after the summer of bankruptcy. Also teams usually see a bounce in attendance the year after have a breakthrough season performance wise.

As for the comments about the lack of marketing usually major league sports teams, particularly those that are winning don't need to do much of it. Just saying

Just win, no marketing needed? Right...I can't wait to see all the responses when the deal with JIG gets completed. I have been watching the expert analysis on this thread, and all the reasons why the coyotes are gone, so it should be fun seeing more analysis paralysis on why they should be gone and how stupid COG is for keeping them...Can't wait....

Just win, no marketing needed? Right...I can't wait to see all the responses when the deal with JIG gets completed. I have been watching the expert analysis on this thread, and all the reasons why the coyotes are gone, so it should be fun seeing more analysis paralysis on why they should be gone and how stupid COG is for keeping them...Can't wait....

well yeah usually playoff teams don't need to market themselves. We'll see what COG does, this is an unprecedented situation as far as I know for a city to actively subsidize the operating budget of a major league sports team. I have seen incentives to lure a team, payments to cover moving expenses, the obviously building the venue, etc but never a 20 year commitment to cut a check every year.

No one here is claiming to be Nate Silver. We're just making predictions on an obviously fluid situation. For all I know maybe Skeete does finalize a deal with Jamison in time for the 11/27 meeting. I haven't met either one of them so I don't know how far apart they are on the terms of the lease to know if it can get done in that time. I also know very little about Skeete other than his comical education background that I saw on his LinkedIn page. I also have no idea if he wants the permanent city manager job and if he is going to play this accordingly.

Lastly, this situation has defied all logic. The problem we all have in trying to predict what will happen is that we try to use logic and that doesn't apply here

Just win, no marketing needed? Right...I can't wait to see all the responses when the deal with JIG gets completed. I have been watching the expert analysis on this thread, and all the reasons why the coyotes are gone, so it should be fun seeing more analysis paralysis on why they should be gone and how stupid COG is for keeping them...Can't wait....

If you need marketing to bring your attendance to a respectable level after being in that market for 15 years - then the market is already telling you it's not interested.

A completed deal doesn't mean it's a success - all it means is that the market is so bad that subsidies are needed to keep a team there. Remove the subsidies and tell me if ANYONE buys the team to keep it there. That's what tells you it won't work in Glendale. We've seen this for 15 years already, nothing's changed.

The latest revelations about how Beasley conducted business at city hall might help to understand why he decided to leave a high paying job in the public sector to pursue a "consulting" business. His nefarious actions relating to moving money around to ensure that the General Fund was "made whole" is not all that surprising in light of his history of playing fast and loose with facts, and keeping city council in the dark. Remember, this is the guy who deliberately kept city council in the dark on a reputable economic assessment of Jobing.com parking revenues, and instead replaced them with a cocked up version from his buddy TL Hocking. In effect, he was trying to dupe city council and the public into paying much more for parking rights than they were worth by misleading them about the financial benefits. It doesn't get much worse than that as a civil servant paid by the tax payers and hired by an elected council.

Is it any wonder that Scruggs turned on him? She probably figured out how rotten he was, and decided that his prognostications and schemes about the Coyotes were just a house of cards. His resignation might not have been entirely voluntary, given what we know now.

Municipal bankruptcies are extremely rare. Obviously there are a number of them all over the US right now but given the number of municipalities its still rare. Also while the US and the world in general has been through an economic calamity the worst is over and it is past the inflection point and things are getting better. With Tanger coming in you can expect more traffic at Westgate regardless of what the Coyotes do. The Federal Reserve will keep rates low for another year or two so Glendale will be able to refinance its debt.

Worst case scenario is that at some point in the future Glendale tells the Coyotes "we can afford this deal anymore so either take a lower payment or we'll let you leave" then Jamison can go to Hamilton, KC, Portland or wherever there is an open arena with no team or he can sell to PKP in QC or Hansen in Seattle and pocket a nice profit. I don't think the NHL will be as stringent about the relo fees as they were with Atlanta because this time its an owner that was helping the league in the first place being pushed out by his city.

Sure they're rare but like you said there have been more of them recently. COG has completely over extended itself. It's a classic Stockton. The market wouldn't even accept a tiny $50 mm issue from them... hell somebody could've picked that up as a hobby. Since that issue they're looking to put up probably over $100 mm in PV AMF obligation, serious internal control issues have come to light, and their seriously underfunded pension and OPEB are only a few years away from becoming cashflow.

The internal controls thing alone could easily 86 their refi, never mind the support for the Coyotes (which Moody's highlighted as a possible negative to their credit before the JIG lease was disclosed)

If the lease is broken the ownership group becomes a motivated seller/relocater, which gives a lot of leverage to the purchaser. They have outs but they're crappy outs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cobra427

Just win, no marketing needed? Right...I can't wait to see all the responses when the deal with JIG gets completed. I have been watching the expert analysis on this thread, and all the reasons why the coyotes are gone, so it should be fun seeing more analysis paralysis on why they should be gone and how stupid COG is for keeping them...Can't wait....

Just win, no marketing needed? Right...I can't wait to see all the responses when the deal with JIG gets completed. I have been watching the expert analysis on this thread, and all the reasons why the coyotes are gone, so it should be fun seeing more analysis paralysis on why they should be gone and how stupid COG is for keeping them...Can't wait....

Sure. And I hope it works out better for you than these did:

Quote:

09-09-2012, 11:24 PM cobra427
I suspect a deal will get worked out shortly, like this week. The NHL and JIG can outsmart the COG all day long, with a creative deal, that gives the COG some window dressing (delay and protection), while keeping JIG investors warm and fuzzy. The reaction on this board will be interesting since nobody thinks this will get done, can't wait for that.....

Quote:

09-13-2012, 04:52 PM cobra427
It would be something if the AMF, Coyote sale, and Doan signing happen on the very same(last) day, right before a lock out...

Quote:

08-05-2012, 06:47 PM cobra427
I said the tax petitioners would fail, they failed. The reasons don't matter (CF has reasons), (we can rationalize all day long) just the end result. I had rather be lucky then good any day, so think as you wish.

Quote:

08-04-2012, 12:32 AM cobra427
tax petitioners failed, now the appeal failed. Par for the course, not rocket science given the facts. I can't wait to here the legal experts explanation on how this is going to somehow be overturned.

Quote:

07-30-2012, 09:02 PM cobra427
This is not a surprise, the case was very weak, just like cobb/jones, or the gift tax issue, which GWI will conveniently bow out, once the political/legal maneuvering is over. Good luck on appeal, chances are slim and none.

Since that issue they're looking to put up probably over $100 mm in PV AMF obligation, serious internal control issues have come to light, and their seriously underfunded pension and OPEB are only a few years away from becoming cashflow.

The internal controls thing alone could easily 86 their refi, never mind the support for the Coyotes (which Moody's highlighted as a possible negative to their credit before the JIG lease was disclosed)

I'm interested to see if any other accounts were Beasleyed (or would I drop the "y" on that? Beasleied?) I would think they're going to have to do an extensive audit to find out what their true GF balance is.

It's got to be a gut punch for the city to survive the tax vote only to have this blow up in their face. If Skeete's (-$20MM) estimate is correct, and I have no reason to believe it isnt, they're essentially in the same place they would have been if the tax failed.

Skruggs is the only person on the council who has displayed any competence. It's pretty much up to her and Skeete to solve it. Alvarez and Clark are belligerent idiots. Martinez and Frate figure if they cover their eyes and plug their ears, the problem goes away. Knnack just stares blankly and talks about the good old days. Lieberman up and left.

When this does end I'm going to have to find a new entertainment option for my time on the elliptical machine. Who am I kidding? I hope this never ends.

May I suggest writing a book about the whole debacle, you could start from the day that the Winnipeg fans held a save the Jet's rally to present! Put me down for the first one off the press, autographed of course! I have totally enjoyed your take on all the shenanigans.

In 2002-2003 the Coyotes were nobodies but midtable compared to the league and they had 13.2k fans in average attendance.

2003-2004 they had a worse record and managed to move up to #19 with 15.5k fans avg a game.

...

2009 NHL buys Phoenix, Wayne Gretzky resigns as coach.

BUT THIS IS THE PART THAT BAFFLES ME...

IMMEDIATELY the next season the Coyotes win the division. They win 50 games out of 82... wow. And the attendance DROPS LIKE NO OTHER!

The Coyotes get bought out by the league... Not that Gretzky was a good coach lol, or great or w.e.. but new one comes in and they improve their home 10 fold.

50 wins... and there attendance drops like never before! They go from 14k to 12k!
WOW

...
Last season Pheonix showed for a 3rd straight season its consistency and exciting play but attendance never went above 12.5 avg.

I agree with the sentiment that follows

Quote:

Originally Posted by pondnorth

Those attendance figures are bogus according to Judge Buam numbers at the bankrupcy hearings.Inflated to get max revenue sharing.Also its not tickets sold,its tickets distributed.

Inflated numbers are the issue here, the public numbers were inflated even more to create a sense of urgency too get in the house before it sold out! The team used a strategy on Ticketmaster of only having 2-3k tickets showing as available to enhance the impression of scarcity, then would release new rows as the supply "appeared" to dry up.

The numbers in the BK were pumped up by comps that were never used to maximize rev. sharing, the attendance appeared to drop as a result (partially) of fewer comps being issued by the new 29 headed ownership group.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CasualFan

When this does end I'm going to have to find a new entertainment option for my time on the elliptical machine. Who am I kidding? I hope this never ends.

You could string beads together into various items as a value adding exercise for your kiosk. I could go for a nice houseplant hanger like this one, I'd even go so far as to put a cactus in to to remember this whole affair by.

Beasly....His resignation might not have been entirely voluntary, given what we know now.

... some of us certainly speculated on the reasons behind his "retirement" at 55, not uncommon but none the less "peculiar" in doing so when clearly the city was/is in a God awful state of affairs, from Camelback to the Coyotes & all points in between. Classic examples of absolute municipal corruption; awarding $300,000+ contracts in increments of less than $50,000 in order to skirt the rules & guidelines of oversight & open tender; raiding the pension fund, moving money around in unauthorised transactions like the city was his own giant ATM.

Youd have thought there would have been some "concern", one would hope "pride" that as the COG's quarterback he'd have stuck through thick & thin. Fought back from the one yard line with a ground game instead of continuing to get sack & clobbered with his failed Hail Marys'. Shown some grit & character, integrity. Instead, he just walks off the field to a waiting near on $200,000 per annum pension plan, hang's up a "Consultant" shingle, sits back & watches his playbook unravel.

Now, you'd think someone who pulled stuff like this would want to stick around to try & fix things before being completely exposed no? If deliberate & conscious criminal activity, socked away enough cash & bought themselves a hacienda in Columbia or in whatever other jurisdiction that doesnt have an extradition treaty with the United States of America yes? Like, better get the Hell outta Dodge before the **** really hits the fan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomas L

Just guessing here, but the changes to early retirement benefits for which the city was fined were probably advantageous to him?

... I would think so, and certainly they were to the former Human Resource Manager who 6 months before her full pension benefits were to kick in, she & her family relocated out of state, tendered her resignation. Beasley instead coaching & facilitating that she continue on in a full time capacity working remotely for the next 6 months so that she would be eligible to collect the maximum amounts permitted.

.... should also be noted TL that you foretold this, the possibility of the city being unable to fund its pension commitments precipitating muni BK. In light of what Beasley pulled here, that Clark blithely dismissed as "nit picky" in the audit, your prognostication may just yet become a reality. That monies gotta be replaced and fast. Even with the tax increase absent any AMF to a buyer they are in one Momma Jomma of a mess thanks to Beasley's miscreant behaviour, and you know what?, just the tip of the iceburg. I shudder to think what a full audits going to reveal.

What I was getting at is if he succeeds in buying the Coyotes and then the experiment of the hockey in Arizona proves to be a failure (AGAIN) they will let him make some profit moving the team unlike ASG with the Thrashers. ASG basically got the Thrashers for free, claims it lost a little over $100 million while owning them, and then sold them for $170 million the NHL basically said "oh no you don't." I don't see them doing that with Jamison

The thing is if the revised lease resembles any of the previous leases the franchise will only be portable if the COG fails to make lease payments or goes bankrupt. Just because GJ and the JSG lose their shirt it will not make the franchise portable.