Senior Labor and Liberal National Party strategists believe Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will hold the balance of power after the Queensland election.

Today’s disaggregated Newspoll results show One Nation’s federal primary vote in the state holding firm at 16 per cent, though the party is dogged by scandal and independent investigations.

Premier Annastacia Pala­szczuk must call the next election before May, and has ruled out any preference deals with One Nation.

LNP leader Tim Nicholls says his party’s preferences will be directed seat by seat, but has denied he would be prepared to govern in coalition with One Nation.

A senior member of Mr Nicholls’s team said the LNP should not have “anything to do with” One Nation, and should consider putting Senator Hanson’s party last on all how-to-vote cards.

The LNP source said One Nation could equal the 1998 Queensland result, when the previous version of the party secured 23 per cent of the primary vote and 11 seats in what was then an 89-seat parliament.

“They’ll be highly influential either way, but I think they are going to touch Labor up,” the source said, describing the recent Labor budget’s $5bn infrastructure spend in its marginal regional seats as “gilding the casket”.

A senior ALP strategist agreed One Nation was a threat to Labor’s marginal seats in regional cities such as Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton and Bundaberg but said One Nation would hurt LNP base seats more. “But there is a real risk of her holding the balance of power, and that would mean a Tim Nicholls minority government.”

Queensland senator Murray Watt — who has spearheaded federal Labor’s attack on One Nation — said it was unsurprising that recent scandals had not reduced the party’s vote.

“Many of her supporters are deeply distrustful of the major parties and the mainstream media outlets that have been reporting these scandals,” Senator Watt said. “But as time goes on and more and more scandals come up, and as she sells out the battlers more and more, her support will erode.”

Federal LNP Member for Dawson George Christensen — whose north Queens­­land electorate takes in state seats vulnerable to One Nation — said his party should be reminding people Senator Hanson was not running in the state election. “The love — where there is love — is for Pauline Hanson herself, not for the party. That distinction does need to be made.”

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