Warning to Readers

If you are reviewing my site for investment advice or speculative ideas, please keep in mind that I do not promise to publish all changes in sentiment, or complete reflections of my positions. I would advise against using this blog for that purpose if you are not performing your own deep research.

You should also keep in mind that this is all really complicated, and that on any given topic, I know about 1/1000th of what I would need to in order to really have certifiable insights. Please don't interpret confident assertions as assertions of complete knowledge. I will generally find one aspect of a market that seems specifically miscalibrated, and assume that the other aspects of the market are properly priced and have risks with a symmetrical range of outcomes. I welcome comments addressing areas where those risks are not symmetrical or deserve more attention.

I will frequently think out loud through these posts, working out the issues as I look into them. I will sometimes write about topics where standard analysis seems spectacularly wrong to me. I suspect that much of what I write will be spectacularly wrong in ways that are obvious to the reader but not to me. I won't hold this against you if you don't hold it against me.

Additionally, as the proper role of the speculator is to find resources that are misvalued by the broader market and society, the posts on this blog may sometimes seem dry or unsympathetic in areas where we normally try to portray ourselves publicly as empathetic. These social pressures for public empathy sometimes cloud our judgment, and so the deconstruction of those public postures, and the application of resources to their best use, in spite of social pressure to the contrary, is part of the function of speculation. The efficient allocation of capital owes no more apology than does Galileo to Ptolemy. Progress demands dislocations, and altruism should help in relieving those dislocations, not preventing them. On the investment-related posts, I look forward to comments pointing out factual or interpretive errors, but comments amounting to altruistic posturing will be out of place here.