Tesla Motors will put a self-driving car on the road within three years

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There aren’t many names that can stir the public’s interest simply by announcing their intent to enter a race. Some can’t be ignored due to sheer size and resources — the Microsofts and Googles of the world — but others get by on a narrower but highly prestigious track record, such as the Valves and the Amazons. In terms of hardware, Tesla Motors definitely falls into the latter category; in just a decade it has built a worldwide auto competitor and the first plug-in to excite enthusiasts as a car, rather than as an electric car. Though new, Tesla has definitely acquired the air of an elite contender.

This week, Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk said the company has concrete plans to put a self-driving car on the road within three years. Currently, its job board lists an Advanced Driver Assistance Systems Controls Engineer, to be part of “Tesla’s effort to pioneer fully automated driving.” Despite the phrase “fully automated driving,” Musk said that the car would handle up to 90% percent of the driving, and that it’s “incredibly hard to get that last few percent.” It’s currently unclear how this division of labor might go, what sorts of tasks Musk foresees being too hard for the computer — or too tricky to come at legally.

Google’s hats for self driving cars may be iconic, but will they be the first to market?

The Financial Times claims industry sources blame carmakers’ fears of liability lawsuits for sluggish uptake of the work Google and others have been doing for the past several years. Most of the research so far has come from Google and traditional manufacturers like Volvo and Mercedes Benz — though other players have gotten involved. Google needs a partner to bring its tech to the road, but Tesla has experience doing that all by itself. Tesla has already proved it can be successful partnering with small independent dealers, and in three years’ time Tesla will likely be selling far more units direct to the American consumer.

Tesla also has experience bringing new technology through strict, often obtuse regulatory processes, and selling to very specifically the portion of auto consumers who love to get the newest and shiniest toys. That very cred with well-funded car nuts could prove to be something of an albatross though, since that’s the very same demographic which takes serious pleasure from the feeling of driving their cars; Tesla’s crowd may be early adopters, but they also might balk at the thought of ever giving up any measure of control over their vehicle.

Though Tesla was long thought to be a probable partner for Google’s self-driving technology, this news could still help Google’s push for traction in the traditional industry. Tesla Motors is a name that commands some respect these days, and even a moderate success from the makers of ExtremeTech’s 2012 car of the year will force major powers to sit up and take notice. If an upstart player is coming to corner a market with high potential for growth, there will suddenly be an incentive to head off any possible legal issues.

How can it possibly be hard to create a self-driving car f you’re a rocket scientist?

As always, though, Musk shows a preternatural confidence in the possible pace of technological advancement. He set SpaceX to some truly incredible timelines, and this three-year goal for Tesla continues the trend. Few analysts have projected a large-scale future for self-driving cars within this decade. Whether the troubles lie in the technology, the legality, or the public’s reticence to adopt, nobody else has been bold enough to promise a car on the road before 2017. Mercedes, for its part, thinks it will have a self-driving car on the road by 2020.

The legal issues may well prove the most difficult to overcome. Insurance companies, in particular, have two competing incentives to resist this change: too many accidents is bad for their profitability, but too few accidents is bad for their position as a necessary part of the automotive industry. Whether or not the auto insurance industry actually believes that self-driving cars will be dangerous, it has a vested interest in claiming to, so it can avoid either possibility.

Moderate self-driving capabilities are oncoming, however. In particular, there are already cars built to automate the tedious inching of bumper-to-bumper traffic, using semi-autonomous technologies such as adaptive cruise control. We may see self-driving capabilities creep up on Musk’s 90% prediction slowly, as we gradually become comfortable handing over that kind of control.

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Joel Detrow

Elon Musk’s greatest strength is that he is not afraid to throw all of his vast resources at a goal he knows is achievable. The other companies are too afraid of failure, too focused on safe profits to see the tremendous benefit in being THE company to make history. Elon Musk clearly wants Tesla to be that company, and I have no doubt he’ll succeed.

Guest

3 years will mean 6 but still amazing

gopher652003

Hah! That was my thought as well. Every time Musk gives a timetable for something I mentally autocorrect it with a x2. He’s an optimistic guy – and that’s what we all love about him – but you really do have to take his temporal pronouncements with a grain of salt.

jhewitt123

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk6h
Engineers interested in working on autonomous driving, pls email autopilot@teslamotors.com. Team will report directly to me.

Justin

Need any contracts managers?

marly

I cannot wait for self-driving vehicles!! Let’s keep offroading and racing, but leave the tedious driving to the computers…

jhambi

This. I see tons of posts by car guys claiming that this is the end and terrible and such. Who likes sitting/driving in traffic? There is nothing saying ALL cars will be self driving ALL the time or that you won’t be able to go to a race, autocross, or offroading. Just let them automate away the tedious stuff.

Ionut Murgoci

I love Tesla cars. I’ve seen one for the first time two years ago in Paris. It is awesome! :D

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