An analytical look at what we’ve learned about the Atlantic 10 in the first two months of the season and how the conference race shapes up as league play begins this week:

FAVORITE

VCU. Another person might have listed the Butler Bulldogs, because they are ranked and have the pedigree that attaches to a program with multiple Final Fours this decade. They also have the neutral-court victory over Indiana that stands as the best non-league win achieved by anyone, anywhere this season.

VCU might have the better team. The Rams turned Alabama into pudding, messed with Memphis’ ambition and lost only to Wichita State, Duke and Missouri. They play a defensive style—they call it “Havoc”—that might be just right for a league with a fair share of guards who can be convinced to give up the ball in a pinch. Oh, and the Rams’ one regular-season game against Butler—that’ll be at home, thank you, on Saturday March 2.

CONTENDERS

Butler. The transfer of guard Rotnei Clarke from Arkansas has been an enormous boost for the Bulldogs, and not just because his miraculous heave against Marquette provided a victory in the Maui Invitational opener as well as the opportunity to defeat North Carolina in the semis. Clarke is leading BU in minutes, scoring and, of course, 3-point field goals. He is not a conventional playmaking point guard—the team’s assists leader is power forward Roosevelt Jones—but he does provide a sense of stability and strength in charge of the ball.

Coach Brad Stevens always has made great use of his bench, but lacking Hayward/Mack/Howard-type talent, he has taken a more varied approach and is using nine players for double-figure minutes on average. Aside from Clarke, though, Butler does not have a reliable outside threat and will heavily depend on its defensive execution.

Saint Louis. Be honest: If Rick Majerus were alive and coaching this team, no one would be doubting the Billikens’ presence in this category. We all expected them to seriously challenge for the title back in the summer, before he became ill. The team he left for Jim Crews is honoring their late coach’s memory by continuing to play intelligent basketball. Not electric, perhaps, but they take quality shots and defend well.

Here’s a stat that could help a bunch in March: SLU is undefeated with veteran point guard Kwamain Mitchell in the rotation.

Temple. That it is this difficult to pick a favorite in the Atlantic 10—and that Xavier is not an automatic pick selection—says much about the level this conference will achieve in what might be its final season of consequence. It’s funny. The A-10 has been around longer than the Big East, and it nurtured such legends as Marcus Camby, Jameer Nelson, Mark Macon, David West and Norm Nixon, but when XU, Butler and one or two others depart, will you hear the sort of media laments the crumbling of the Big East engendered?

The Owls did the league proud by defeating Syracuse and nearly winning at Kansas, after KU had ground up solid visitors such as Colorado, Belmont and Richmond. What might be a problem: They can’t shoot: 40.7 percent from the field, 30.5 percent on 3-pointers. That’s how a team with its accomplishments also manages to lose to Canisius, and that could prevent a last league title before, indeed, Temple departs the league for the Big East.

Saint Joseph’s. We might be the last people outside Hawk Hill to believe in St. Joe’s, and after the Hawks play both Butler and VCU in their first three games we might evacuate, as well. We have seen St. Joe’s teams recover from non-league schedules that were light on home games and heavy on losses to perform well in the A-10. And the players are good enough to win if they make better decisions in crunch time.

That means at both ends of the floor, and in the sense of not getting suspended (Halil Kanacevic) for gesturing to the opposing crowd.

HOPING TO FINISH ABOVE .500

Charlotte. For a team with a terrific record, the 49ers are a bit of a mystery. They don’t have to apologize for what they’ve accomplished. Coming off 13-17, being 12-2 against anybody is an achievement. But there aren’t enough somebodies among their victims to be sure how they’ll handle the step up in class. And it is a step up, particularly this season, with eight other teams owning double-digit victories.

The 49ers have defended phenomenally well, holding opponents to 36.8 percent shooting, but can they continue that success against more significant opponents? The Miami Hurricanes hit 48.2 percent. Florida State shot 44.9 percent. The evidence suggests the answer is no.

Dayton. When center Matt Kavanaugh got himself suspended for the year, UD’s potential to end this season with a league championship likely went with him. He was not a star, but it’s not easy to find a player with his size and mobility to clog the lane on defense and score a few buckets close to the goal.

The Flyers still have size, though not as much depth. They still have the league’s best pure point guard, senior Kevin Dillard, averaging 15 points and 4.9 assists. They also have a tendency to hit costly scoring droughts against their best defensive opponents.

La Salle. Even with a team that can shoot and score, which the Explorers do well, it is not easy to win games against quality opponents when struggling on D and on the boards. Ramon Galloway is playing terrific basketball, but when a 6-3 guard ranks close to your leading rebounders—with a not totally un-guard-like total of 5 per game—somebody isn’t getting it done up front.

Massachusetts. Remind me why we’re supposed to be disappointed in UMass? The Minutemen have won seven in a row, and their only losses are to Miami, Tennessee and N.C. State. They could be more efficient at both ends, no doubt, but they haven’t collapsed.

Point guard Chaz Williams isn’t shooting as well as last season, and he’s turning it over a little more, but he still is a dynamic playmaker. It’s a long, active team that does a great job taking the ball from opponents. It’s not a team that does a great job of turning ordinary halfcourt possessions into something positive.

Richmond. It was kind of startling when Kansas folks began proclaiming the Jayhawks had dominated three consecutive NCAA Tournament contenders at home in December: Colorado, Belmont and … Richmond? It seemed a stretch then, more so now that the KU loss was followed by defeats against George Mason and Davidson.

Perhaps they were speaking a year in advance? The Spiders are using seven players at least 10 minutes a game, and only two are seniors. They appear to be on course to challenge for the A-10 title in 2013-14. It will be interesting to see which teams will be around to fight them for it.

Xavier. If Xavier were named something other than Xavier, it would not merit inclusion in this group. The departure of guard Mark Lyons as a graduate transfer (to Arizona) and wing Dez Wells for disciplinary reasons (to Maryland) stripped the Musketeers of too much talent at once. Young guards Semaj Christon and Dee Davis have done well, but there’s not enough size or muscle up front—and there’s no longer a hint of the swagger this program once enjoyed.

HOPING TO FINISH .500

St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies might not be any more capable of avoiding the bottom of this league than Duquesne or GW, but a year after winning the A-10’s conference tournament and automatic bid they won’t want to slip all the way back toward Earth.

The Bonnies’ defense has dissolved, though, allowing the three most recent opponents to score at least 85. They rank 177th in Kenpom.com’s defensive efficiency category.

HOPING TO FINISH

Duquesne. The highlight of the Dukes’ season was a home win against West Virginia in December, and that it will remain. They hired a very good coach in Jim Ferry after firing the very good coach they had. Whether Ferry is capable of making Duquesne as relevant as Ron Everhart did remains to be seen, but the honest truth is the Dukes would greatly benefit were a number of the league’s heavyweights to take off. No Xavier, no Dayton, no Temple? Maybe there’d be a chance then, and there’d still be an automatic bid.

George Washington. Mike Lonergan won at Catholic, at Vermont and he will win here. Just not now.

Rhode Island. The Hurley brothers turned Wagner around in one year, from 5-26 before they arrived to 13-17 and then to 25-5. Rhody is worthy of their talents.