INTRODUCTION This detailed note covers the likely immediate backlash/ law and order situations that get created in the State on the submission of the Report at the end of the month as a reaction to the perceived course of action by the Government of India on whatever option may finally get exercised. The note also discusses some major long term internal security related issues. The assessment given in the note is based on ( i) analysis of certain relevant memoranda given by the political parties and other groups ( ii) information gained through interaction with different political parties/ groups at State level and during field visits ( districts and villages) ( iii) discussions held with Senior Officers of the State Government including that of the Police Department with District Collectors and Superintendents of Police and with other sources and ( v) own experience. 2. BACKGROUND 2.1 The demand for a separate Telangana State had been existing even before the creation of the State of Andhra Pradesh on November 1, 1956 after the merger of Telangana areas of the erstwhile Hyderabad State with the State of Andhra that had been carved out in 1953 out of t he Madras Presidency. Prior to the merger and with a view to provide safeguards for protecting the interest of Telangana, an agreement called µ The Gentleman¶s Agreement¶ involving the leaders of both the regions was signed in February, 1956. However, disc ontent over the ab- initio non- implementation of some of the key decisions ( ibid Chapter 1 of Report) in the Agreement resulted in a major ³ separate Telangana agitation´ in 1968- 1969. This agitation which was mainly spearheaded by the students started in Warangal District in December 1968 and spread to other regions of Telangana receiving support of various parties and organizations of the region. In the wake of this agitation there was large scale destruction of public/ private property. Besides, repor tedly it resulted in the death of 57 persons with 217 persons injured as per the figures based on Andhra Pradesh police inputs). The agitation was, however, brought under control after a few months on account of the strong stand taken by Smt. Indira Gandhi , the then Prime Minister. The Government of India promised to undertake remedial action against the violations of the Agreement and P. V. Narasimha Rao belonging to Telangana region, was made Chief Minister of the State on September 30, 1971. 2.2 On 28th March, 1969, the Mulki rules were held invalid by the High Court. However, the Supreme Court declared them constitutionally valid on October 3, 1972 giving rise to a situation where jobs occupied by the Andhra People were

Ove r a period of time. while GOs 399 and 415 were issued and later cancelled. AP High Court also issued direction for implementation of GO 610 within 3 months. 1973 by both the regions. The Government issued 4 GOs. the Supreme Court cancelled ( October 9. Around 350 citizens were also injured.required to be vacated.) 2. The re action to this development was that it led to a strong µ Jai Andhra movement¶ in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions in late 1972. commissionerates and state level offices located in Hyderabad. anybody in the state could compete. This movement also witnessed a high level of violence resulting in 69 causalities. Among these. seven Government personnel were killed and 66 injured. there were violations in the implementation of SPF and GO 610 was issued ( December 30. Subsequent to this order the Andhra Pradesh Assembly passed a Resolution on 18. Accordingly. for the State Secretariat. holding that Hyderabad being a cosmopolitan city should be treated as a free zone. A Presidential Order was promulgated on May 3. The implementation of GO 610 in the last 4 to 5 years. out of which GOs 72 and 116 were not implemented. e.3 Meanwhile. A political settlement was worked out and a Six Point Formula ( SPF) was agreed upon on September 28. recruitment was done treating Hyderabad as a free zone i. 1985) to rectify them. Recently. Government of India to obtain the approval of President of India to Clause ( 1) of Para 14 of the Andhra Pradesh Public Employment ( organization of Local cadres and Regulation of Direct Recruit) Orde r 1975´. discontinuation of Telangana Regional Committee and Mulki Rules. reservation for local candidates for non gazetted posts/ educational institutions. the state was divided into Six Zon es and Hyderabad was included in Zone 6. state le vel Planning Boards/ Sub Committees for backward areas. directorates. P. 2009) the transfer orders of some police inspectors ( as per GO 610). Narasimha Rao resigned as CM on January 10. V. has been reported to be satisfactory with a major part of the grievances redressed. This movement was also contained through firm handling with the intervention of the Government of India. however.2010 as quoted below: ³ This House resolves to request the Ministry of Home Affairs. simmering discontentment among Telangana people over nonimplementation of
. The Girgilani Commission appointed by the State Government pointed out in 2004 that there had been several instances of vio lations of the GO 610 during the previous 30 years and recommended corrective action. However. 1975 which provided for accelerated development of backward areas.3. 1973 and President¶s Rule was imposed. ( The above resolution has been forwarded to Government of India.

The union government had constituted this committee to examine the demand for a separate state of Telangana as well as the demand for maintaining the present status of a unit ed Andhra Pradesh.various protective provisions for Telangana was highlighted by Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS) which was floated on April 27. The GoI appointed a Cabinet Sub Committee headed by Pranab Mukherjee on January 5. Between 2004 and 20 09 KCRepresented the Karimnagar Parliament seat. the Pranab Committee could not arrive at any clear cut conclusion and reportedly suggested appointment of a Second States¶ Reorganisation Commission to look into the issue. TRS joined the TDP¶s grand alliance. 2005 to evolve a consensus on the issue. Only after the demise of former CM YS Rajasekhar Reddy. 2001 by K Chandrasekhar Rao ( KCR). PRESENT SITUATION 3. Subsequently. would take an appropriate decision on Telangana at an appropriate time. In 2004 general elections TRS entered into an alliance with the Congress Party with a commitment for creation of Telangana as a separated State. The announcement over the formation of State of Telangana made by the union government on 9th December.up. Many protagonists of Telangana campaig ned extensively for that election. He retained his seat in the keenly contested bye election by a huge margin.1. At the time of general elections held in 2009. The Telangana prot agonists deserted the TRS and KCR. the state politics ran into instability bringing back the demand for Telangana state. Sensing adverse mood of the people towards the failure of KCR he resigned his seat in 2006. 2009 had generated unrest among the Seemandhra people.elections in four Lok Sabha seats and 16 assembly seats. The TRSuffered big electoral defeat winning just 10 seats for the state assembly and just two seats for the Parliament. However. The TDP which fought the 2004 general elections on the plank of united Andhra Pradesh has reve rsed its decision to take advantage of the strong sentiment prevailing in the Telangana Districts. KCR started losing support within the party and yet again he enforced bye .1 The demand for a separate State of Telangana has its root in the perceived discrimination against the people of Telangana by the Seemandhra leaders in the
. KCRejected the suggestion and withdrew from both the central government and state governments in protest. 3. The Telangana Congre ss leaders asserted that Smt. The percentage of vote share obtained by the TRS attracted the attention of TDP and its leader Chandra Babu Naidu to explore a possible tie. TRS joined both the State and Central G overnment. The outcome of the bypolls was a huge set back as KCR lost many seats held by his partymen. The congress party contested without any allies. Sonia Gandhi. and the issue was included in the Common Minimum Programme of UPA .

There has been a long standing demand for appointment of the Advocate General hailing from Telangana. In addition. 3.3 The Muslim community. The people of Telangana believe that the probl em of discrimination against their region that has existed hitherto can only be overcome by having their own independent identity. 3. especially those belonging to backward classes and minorities have also been allure d with promises of free education at all levels and increase in reservation for them in government jobs in the new State. Government employees belonging to Seemandhra region. The student community is already campaigning for 42% reservation in Group. The expectations of the farmers have also been raised that they will gain both in terms of availability of water as well as power.hunt by pro. 2010. This concern arises out of the fact that BJP being a
. water and irrigation resources. Different communities/ groups have their own perception on benefits which may accrue to them from the formation of Telangana. especially the All India Majlis Ittehadul Musalmeen ( AIMIM). though generally opposed to the formation of a new State. fearing action and witch . respectively. job opportunities including employment in Government and issues of development. started an agitation on September 13. as the government jobs in Telangana region will then not go to the Seemandhra people. there is a strong emotional factor attached with the demand for a separate state.Telangana political parties in the eventuality of a separate State being formed . 2010 targetting judges and advocates belonging to Seemandhra region demanding a 42% reservation in the said posts. CM).I posts for those belonging to Telangana and boycotted classes/ examinations and organized bandh on the issue on September 4 and 5. CM/ Dy. Several caste groups. is apprehensive of the fate and status of the Muslim community. besides the unfulfilment of some key assurances given in the Gentlemen¶s Agreement particularly pertaining to political space for Telangana ( e. under the banner of Telangana Advocates Joint Action Committee. g.2 The student community and the unemployed youth feel that the creation of new State will lead to increased employment op portunities for them. Telangana lawyers also see a separate State as an opportunity to get more appointments to the posts of Public Prosecutors. The government employees of Telangana also welcome the formation of a new State as they feel that this may lead to faster promotions. They. are not coming out openly against the demand for Telangana. the main Muslim political party of Andhra Pradesh. in the new State.fields of education. Assistant Public Prosecturors and Standing Counsels in the New State. in the eventuality of a separate Telangana being form ed.

viz. POSSIBLE OPTIONS 4. fearing a backlash. comprising the erstwhile territory of the Nawab of Hyderabad. many Muslims residing in various districts of Telangana are also strongly supporting the new State. Scenario 1) To treat the movement as a normal law and order situati on to be handled purely by the State with usual support from the Centre Scenario 2) Creation of a separate State of Telangana with Hyderabad becoming a Union Territory. 4. However. Scenario 3) To merge Rayalaseema with Telangana and create a new State Rayala Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital Scenario 4) In case of a separate Telangana.East and Kurnool ( Rayalaseema) in the South via Nalgond a and Mehboobnagar ( both Telangana districts) respectively through creation of appropriate corridors by merging a few Mandals with Hyderabad ( HMDA) Scenario 5) To grant Statehood to Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital Scenario 6) Providing Constitutional/ Statutory safeguards to Telangana region by guaranteeing redressal of the region¶s major grievances and keeping the State united. Besides. in the event of the new State being formed. creation of a larger Union Territory of Hyderabad by connecting Hyderabad ( HMDA) with Guntur ( Coastal Andhra) in South . AIMIM has diluted its stand of completely opposing Telangana and is now indirectly supporting the formation of a new State albeit. has decided against openly opposing the formation of s eparate Telangana. Telangana region along with Rayalaseema ( Rayala Telangana) as a second option in case keeping the State united does not work out. SCENARIO 1 To treat the movement as a normal law and order situation to be handled purely
.1 The committee has discussed six possible options in the concluding part of the Report not recommending the first three and giving preferential order to the remaining three. Accordingly. however. both against the party and the Muslim community. this may not be acceptable to the Andhra leaders who would lose Hyderabad complete ly and also face hardship in securing rights over river waters.Telangana agitation is likely to play a bigger role after the formation of a new state. The AIMIM.strong proponent of the ongoing pro . Their grievance of not getting adequate jobs and loss of land held by them is noteworthy. The backlash/ law & order problems and the internal security related issues in case of each of the six options/ scenarios ( as listed below) have been covered in this paragraph.

Hyderabad has about 100 central institutions including defence establishments and defence research institutions that are important from the national security point of view. The agitations by the coal workers of Singareni Coal Company Ltd ( SCCL) ( spread over Karimnagar. This will adversely affect the inflow of investments into Hyderabad thus hampering the city¶s economic growth and creating public unrest on account of lost employment opportunities. Medak and parts of Nizamabad. the TDP. immediate backlash will take place in the form of violent agitations in Telangana region which may continue for a few months. the backlash is likely to be more pronounced in TRS dominated districts of Karimnagar.. The agitations are also expected to adversely affect the functioning of industrial and other business establishments. However. A separate plan would have to be drawn up for the protection of these institutions. ( iii) The peoples¶ representatives especially MLAs. road transport vehicles etc.Telangana agitators are likely to target business establishments and financial interests/ assets of the Seemandhra leaders. The pro. The divisions within Congress. economic and political tensions. besides sporadic agitations on specific demands like employment opportunities. Mass resignations could create political crisis in the state.by the State with usual support from the Centre: ( a) Agitations: ( i) In view of the fact that under this option the employment and other expectations and particularly the emotional satisfaction of the people of Telangana will not be met. government employees. Warangal. since the various Joint Action Committees of students. advocates. This in turn would affect the coal supply to the thermal power plants and thus the power position both at the state and national level. ( ii) Furthermore it is anticipated that the agitation in and around Hyderabad would be intense. sharing of water resources etc. In Telangana. as well as the state cabinet will need to be watched and suitably addressed. The verbal attack of the Telangana leaders against the Seemandhra leaders is expected to increase. The rail and road traffic in the Telangana regi on may also be affected. youth and mass organizations would try to paralyse normal life in and around Hyderabad. would need to be secured as they are likely to be the target of the agitationists. may continue for a longer period. the social. Besides. MLCs and MPs from Telangana region belonging to all political parties would be under pressure to resign as evidenced earlier. Khammam and Warangal districts) would adversely affect coal production. prolonged Telangana agitation would put a severe strain on the State¶s law and order
. Adilabad. Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS) and the recently constituted Telangana Praja Front ( TPF ± Gaddar) would take the lead in organizing various programmes. Public property like government offices.

putting tremendous pressure on the water and land utilization. been able to neutralize most of the Jihadi elements in the last two decades and has evolved suitable mechanisms to contain communal and factional resistances. Karimnagar and Warangal may continue to operate along the borders with Madhya Pradesh. however. Telangana without Hyderabad will be handicapped in terms of State revenues. East Godavari. industrial growth. ( c) Communal Violence : As the State has. Chattisgarh. Hyderabad city which is dependent upon Telangana for drinking water supplies. SCENARIO 2 Creation of separate State of Telangana with Hyderabad becoming a Union Territory ( a) Agitations: Apart from the backlash mentioned in Scenario . there may not be much change on the position on these two fronts.Orissa Border areas viz. ( d) Migration issues : Since Hyderabad city or greater Hyderabad ( GHMC) limits have been a focused area for development and investments. ma y face the consequences of violent
.. could possibly be tackled within a small time. The status quo may remain. Since the alignment of political forces on communal lines is likely to be less probable. and certain forest areas of Adilabad. Maharashtra and Orissa. some of the militant elements which have been in the forefront of the agitations may go underground to revive the Maoist movement in certain pockets of Telangana which. by and large. Vizag etc. and is surrounded by Telangana. Hyderabad could emerge as an Island surrounded by a region that is unhappy with its residents ± while the residents of Hyderabad would be dependent on the surroundings for several resources and transport.machinery. ( b) Maoist Violence: In the event of the demand of a separate Telangana state not being realized. which has been historically part of Telangana. both skilled and unskilled labour of all the three regions may continue to migrate to Hyderabad city. In addition. the outbreak of communal violence would be contingent upon extraneous factors. These migrants may alter the population dynamics of Hyderabad city and the competition for employment opportunities and the subsequent frustration may lead to sporadic conflicts between people of various regions in Hyderabad city. Khammam. The Maoists who are active in Dandakaranya and Andhra .frame with firm political will and strong administrative action. employment potential. leading to large scale dissatisfaction and unrest in the region. infrastructure and other facilities.1. there may be severe discontentment among the people of Telangana that Hyderabad city. has been taken away from them.. Their activities might be more intense in Vizag and Khammam regions but the fall out of violence may mostly be confined to these few districts. education.

who have been saying that if a new State has to be carved out. Since the State would be divided. may also have influx of migrants from other States. disparities between people of various regions fuelling social unrest both in Telangana as well as in Hyderabad. limiting their employment prospects and economic growth.locals in Hyderabad city. The only groups who are likely to be satisfied are i) AIMIM. water. as scope for undertaking professional courses presently is rather limited in the Telangana region. The citizens of Telangana may get treated as non . other services etc.Andhra protagonists. This scenario is not likely to be accepted either by the pro. SCENARIO 3 To merge Rayalaseema with Telangana and create a new State Rayalatelangana with Hyderabad as its Capital 1. ( d) Migration : Hyderabad as a UT. fuelling student agitations. The students of Telangana region would become more dependent on Hyderabad for advanced studies in professional courses and higher education. increasing pressure on land. This may lead to dis content among the students. ( b) Maoist Violence: Telangana without Hyderabad city may face a set back with a vast chunk of its populace deprived of economic opportunities and thereby provide a fertile ground for Naxalism to flourish. the feeling is that Rayalaseema will continue to be neglected in Seemandhra. This scena rio may lead to coordination problems for the security forces to carry out their operations. providing a fertile hunting ground for the terror elements. the AIMIM and the BJP in their race to consolidate and expand their base may arouse passions causing a deeper divide between the Hindus and Muslims. Hence there is likelihood of starting of the demand for separate Rayalaseema and consequent agitations. in the forest tracts of Telangana and Seemandhra. transportation. Th is may create a favourable atmosphere for the communal forces to take charge and cause disharmony.. it may become a difficult task for the security forces to coordinate operations to curb Maoists activities in the urban areas of Hyderabad. and this frustration can lead to conflicts. In case of a separate Telangana. Hyderabad city may also be affected by Maoist activiti es. Hyderabad may also provide the base for agitation to both Telanganites and Seemandhra people. as Maoists will try to use Hyderabad city for shelter and generation of funds.Telangana or by the United . then it should comprise the areas of Telangana and
.agitations of Telangana which could lead to blockade of supply in drinking water. ( c) Communal Violence : The political forces viz. which may have a cascading effect in other parts of Telangana and rest of the country.

The emotional as well as the economic aspirations of the people of Telangana will also not be served. AIMIMay try to expand in Rayalaseema regions resulting in birth of militant communalism in certain pockets. While larger Union Territory of H yderabad to be governed on a mixed ( Chandigarh Delhi) with a Legislative Assembly and a Lt. Hyderabad may then contain the capitals of both Telangana as well as Coastal Andhra and may even cater to the possible resultant aspirations of Rayalaseema. 2. Governor may have the advantage of addressing the issue relating to the status of Hyderabad and may even make Hyderabad Megapolis.5 may also generally apply in this case too in certain respects. Hindipur ( Anantapur). serious agitations particularly from Telangana region on two counts namely ( i) Hyderabad not becoming exclusively the capital of Telangana and ( ii) merging parts of two
. Madanapalli. It is to be noted that not a single political and social group from Telangana responded favourably to this suggestion wherever the Committee had an opportunity to discuss the same with them. 3. The potentially affected areas are expected to be: Ado ni ( Kurnool). Since BJP has a strong presence. The situation described later in scenario . creation of a larger Union Territory of Hyderabad by connecting Hyderabad ( HMDA) with Guntoor ( Coastal Andhra) in South East and Kurnool ( Rayalaseema) in the South via Nalgonda and Mahboob Nagar ( both Telangana districts) respective ly through creation of appropriate corridors by merging a few Mandals with Hyderabad ( HMDA) 1. it may try to consolidate in Telangana areas and further expand its base. Punganuru ( Chittoor) and Rayachoti and Kadapa town. as there is a predominant feeling among the people of Telangana that the Rayalaseema leaders have taken over the commercially profitable land of Hyderabad city and will continue to dominate the people of Telangana. inputs received indicate that reactions to this option are also expected to be on the same lines as indicated in Scenario 2 discussed earlier and there will be. This proposal links Hyderabad to all the three regions of the State so that these regions have geographical contiguity and physical access to Hyderabad which ha s emerged as the key issue in the entire scheme of things.Rayalaseema and ii) certain sections of society of Rayalaseema region. an economic giant in due course and in the process help the border towns of all the three regions to grow substantially ( as seen in Delhi and Chandigarh). atleast for a period of time. SCENARIO 4 In case of separate Telangana. 2. Kadiri.

This is dependent on political stability.goating¶. This does not imply that there would be no additional job opportunities and promotional avenues in the new State.( i) The pro. dharnas and even violence. professionals and even farmers. may not actually materialize. However. whether a separate State of Telangana can sustain the state supremacy over the leftwing agitations and threats from other radical/ extremists organizations/ groups.paragraphs. incidents of agitations. In this scenario. This frustration may lead to µ scape . g. that Nation and its constituents e.Telangana political parties and forums are blaming the Seemandhra people for the neglect of Telangana region and are offering tall promises after the creation of the new State. it has been experienced in the contemporary period. these numbers are likely to fall way short of expectations. As discussed in the succeeding sub. maintenance of law and order. Andhra Pradesh has been under the threat of leftwing extremists for a long period though for the present the problem has been largely contained. availability of natural resources and of skilled manpower. ( ii) The only way. With the bifurcation of the state and Hyderabad in Telangana region. stagnant growth and disincentive for entrepreneurs. In the short term Hyderabad may witness a vicious cycle of agitations. SCENARIO 5 To grant Statehood to Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital 1. This may result in flight of capital. The reasons for the same are given below: . are expected. However. leading to slow down of economic activity. Scenario 2 would be relatively easier for convincing Telanganites. although the emotional aspirations of the people of Telangana to have their own State will be satisfied. The important question that emerges in this context is that. states encounter threats from a number of political. are located in and around Hyderabad. the fact remains that it would not be possible to fulfill all these promises due to inherent factors. These factors along with irrigation/ water issues would have a definite adverse impact on revenue generation and industrial development of the State and may actually offset any gains in terms of additional employment opportunities and promotional avenues that will emerge. economic expectations. the existing scenario in regard to this issue does not offer an optimistic picture. slow down of economic activity and greater frustration.districts of Telangana for creation of the larger Union Territory.
. The political agreement on this proposal may also prove to be difficult to arrive at thus creating other governance related tensions. Most of the industries etc. This may lead to frustration among the youth ( who are in the forefront of this agitation). social and religious formations w ith ultra and radical views which tend to threaten the security of nationhood or as in this case statehood. leading to targeted attacks on Se emandhra settlers and their properties. In fact. including enhanced job opportunities which they expect. However. the economic aspirations of the people of Telangana can be met is by accelerated economic development in the region.

state coordination in anti. the Maoists are trying to make a come back through the Telangana agitation.naxal operations still has a lot of catching up to do and the Naxals have taken advantage of this weakness. ( ii) An important development that has to be noted is that after K. G addar organized wide spread protests and later the top leadership of Maoists including Kishanji @ Mallojula Koteshwar have organized various protests programs through students of Osmania University and other universities of Telangana. Telangana Rashtra Samithi was also forced to utilize simmering sentiment in the students. has been after thecreation of these states. It is important to note that it is not entirely a coincidence that the increased spread of Maoist violence in Chha ttisgarh and Jharkhand. Increase in poverty which is a natural corollary to a slowdown in economic activity. It is not without reason that most of the Maoist zones. As such it is likely that the Maoists will extend their activities from these neighbouring states to Telangana. leading to less of economic activity and greater impoverishment. Khammam. it may be too late for the state to handle them with a bifurcated police force contributing to a weaker response to the problem. Thus. By the time the state realizes the Maoist menace.
. sub. Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra States. Warangal. will drive more people into the arms of the CPI ( Maoist). This front which is totally Maoist backed and motivated. The new state is likely to be soft towards them initially. The CPI ( Maoist) will also use political boundaries of state and districts.. especially the districts of Adilabad.( iii) There is also every likelihood of revival of agitations against the formation of a new State in the Seemandhra region. Thus. while the student¶s involvement in the Telangana agitation became very intense due to the encouragement of the local committees of the Maoists. When the intensity of the agitation b y TRStarted ebbing down. This may again lead to a vicious cycle of na xalism. Experience shows that inter. including in the city of Hyderabad. Chandra Shekar Rao gave up his fasting protest on 30. which may provide fillip to left wing extremism.. to their advantage. The impact of possible growth of Maoist/ Naxal influence in Telangana has to be evaluated in the right perspective ke eping in mind that a large number of important and sensitive industries are located in and around Hyderabad.zones etc.11. ( a) Maoist violence: ( i) The Maoists are also likely to gain by the creation of a new state. given that they have over the years supported the struggle for the formation of Telangana. tried to project itself as an alternate to KCR and TRS. Gaddar floated a new front called Telangana Praja Front ( TPF) on the instructions of the underground cadre of the Maoists to sustain agitation for a very prolonged duration. Telangana is also contiguous with other highly affected Maoist areas viz.2009. parts of Nizamabad and Medak in north Telangana and Mahboobnagar and Nalgonda in south Telangana. straddle state and district boundaries. Karimnagar.

indulging in communal rhetoric etc. Nizamabad. Karimnagar towns of Karimnagar district. exist. RSS and Vishwa Hindu Parishad have a reasonably strong presence in the Telangana Region and in general take to inciting passi ons. Telanga na has large number of Muslim pockets and to counter Muslim influence. Zaheerabad and Medak town in Medak district. If commun al passions become an additional factor in an atmosphere where unemployment. Hindu fundamentalists may compete with them and try to polarize the Hindu population. ( ii) The AIMIM. Korutla. Tandur and Vikarabad of Rangareddy district. This may lead to migration of the faculty as well as these institutions. Jagityal. The intelligence wing of the State Police and the IB will be more informed on this aspect. due to the long 400 years of Qutub Shahi and Nizam rule and Razakar movement during the postindependence days. Bhongir areas of Nalgonda district. There is a certain sense of mutual suspicion between two communities who are living in the above mentioned areas. This unhealthy competition between Hindu and Muslim fundamentalist groups may tend to reduce the in fluence of the main stream secular political parties like the Congress and the Communists in the long run. The Hindu passions are being incited by the right wing parties which has also contributed to the outbreak of communal riots. impacting/ reducing the availability of local persons who can be productively engaged by the
. Nalgonda. Mahbubnagar and Narayanpet areas of Mahbubnagar district. Both political parties ( AIMIM & BJP) will be competing to expand their bases in Telangana state and in the process will try to ignite passions creating potential for communal unrest. ( b) Communal Violence: ( i) Historically speaking Telangana area has more communally sensitive areas. most specifically Hyderaad city has witnes sed many communal riots which in most of the cases were triggered by very small and trivial issues. it may give rise to birth of militant Jihadi elements. The student community which is spearheading the separate Telangana agitation has been using these educational institutions for their agitational activities. social unrest etc. ( c) Education implications : Most of the major educational infrastructure in the Telangana region has historically been owned by the Seemandhra people and it is located mostly within the limits of greater Hyderabad. they have again come back together which is a matter of serious concern. Bodhan and Kamareddy of Nizamabad district. The pockets which are vulnera ble to the communal riots are Hyderabad city.Although TPF had sometime back moved away from TRS. Telangana region. BJP. Nirmal and Bhainsa of Adilabad.

( ii) Farming in Telangana is mostly dependent on ground and rain water and liftirrigation schemes which require substantial amount of electrical energy. ( iii) Telangana area is dominated by upper caste Reddys and Velamas. Even today while the leaders of the separate Telangana agitation are from dominant castes. the actual foot soldiers are mainly from the BCs and SCs. Medak. Historically. viz. These aspirations. who are aspiring to acquire political space and leadership.
.locals and also between the management and the workforce. The dominant industries here are thermal power stations. Thus. The present Government has extended free power facility to the farmers across the state which has benefitted the small and marginal farmers in Telangana region to a large extent. if not realized may become an important factor contributing to social unrest.regional rivalry and tensions in Hyderabad area. and granite.industry/ business. land and water utilization in Hyderabad which in turn may accentuate inter . gas. is rapidly expanding its energy sources. Mahbubnagar and Hyde rabad are industrially developed and hence consume substantial amount of energy. wind. the inability to substitute them with sufficient number of qualified locals may lead to conflict between the locals and non . though dependent on coal reserves. Some districts of Telangana region such as Nalgonda. viz. pharmaceuticals etc. energy deficiencies may lead to migration of po pulation. Since Telangana region energy sources are largely coal based thermal power plants. Many of the owners and skilled personnel in these industries have historically been from the Seemandhra region. while the bulk of population is from the backward community.. which may become a cause for social unrest. the job opportunities in all these industries will be made available to the people of Telangana. This can cause decline in their earnings which may result in distress sale of lands and their migration to the industrial belt in the Hyderabad city. Gouds.. pressure on unskilled employment sector.houses. imbalance in the employment opportunities. Telang ana region is dependent on coal reserves for its power generation while Seemandhra region. This may further cause change in the population profi le. solar and nuclear. Mudhiraj. One of the main propaganda issues in the Telangana agitation has been that once a separate state is created. ( d) Migration issues: ( i) Telangana region is mineral rich having deposits of limestone. Munnur Kapu. any economic imbalance may lead to energy starvation of the small and marginal farmers which will adversely affect the productivity of the land. Padmashalis and the Scheduled Caste Community of which the majority are µ madigas¶. and an important cause of naxalism was feudalism and discrimination by the dominant castes over the others. the political and economic activity has always been dominated by the Reddys and Velamas. which are mostly managed by Seemandhra people.

( ii) To ensure that the statutory guarantees/ safeguards provided are properly implemented. that of being discriminated against by the S eemandhra people is likely to remain. provision should be made for taking out an Annual Report Card of their implementation as a confidence building measure for the people of Telangana. The impression that the Telangana people have been somewhat let down in view of the fact that though earlier an indication had been given that the process
. It is also equally important that such guarantees are articulated clearly and effectively brought to the notice of the general public of Telangana by all possible means. 3. The likely agitational activities have been discussed in the section dealing with Scenario 1 but it can be safely said that the intensity of agitations in many parts of Telangana by students. the extent to which the emotional aspirations ( the fulfillment of the psychological need of selfgovernance) are taken care of by the constitutional / statutory guarantees will determine the extent of backlash by the pro. lawyers. Their sentiments have reached a heightened level in the recent past. In order to achieve this. The above actions are extremely important as confidence building measures since implementation on some of the mutually agreed decisions and even Government orders has been found t o be tardy and slow in the past.gazetted officials. were well echoed in the 12 Assembly byeelections of August 2010 and as such have to be fully addressed. The guarantees/ economic package have to necessarily include the following. their demand for a separate State not having been met. employment and irrigation and water resources etc.Telangana people. to at least meet some of the important demands of the Telangana people: ( i) Psychological assurance that the people of Telangana shall not be discriminated against as perceived by the m in the past and would be appropriately empowered in the decision making process such as the representatives of Telangana being given key positions in the government. 2. This option would not satisfy the people of Telangana having regard to the entrenched emotional feelings they harbor for creation of a separate state. unemployed youth and even the farmers will be very high.SCENARIO 6 Providing Constitutional / Statutory safeguards to Telangana region by guaranteeing redressal of the region¶s major grievances and keeping the State united 1. the earlier arrangements like the decisions made in the Gentle men¶s Agreement may have to be revisited and if need be suitably expanded and strengthened. ( iii) The above Annual Report Card may also include the implementation of other recommendations made by the Committee and accepted by the Government pertaining to different s ectors such as education. non . While the emotional aspect.

of creation of a new State would be initiated and now since this will not be done in case the State is to stay united. 2010.) with needed and adequate support from the Centre. Towards this end all/ most of the stakeholders/ important leaders of the State and media have to be brought on the same page. the most vocal and aggressive amongst the political parties. 4. In this context. 5. i) political management and sensitization of political parties ii) media management and iii) high level of p reparedness by the State Government ( Administration. CONCLUSION 5. has to be kept in mind.1 In view of the background of the complex s ituation. there is a high possibility of immediate agitational backlash in different regions of the State. The following mechanism is suggested to control the law and order situations that may emerge soon after the report is submitted and becomes public. the sensitivities involved and the emotional undercurrent running across the State. the aim of this exercise has to be to take all possible actions in advance so that the possible
. The mechanism essentially should cover three areas i. the need of the hour will be to handle the immediate backlash.3 Going by the history of similar agitations earlier. Some opinions have been expressed that this situation can also be exploited by the Maoists on the plea that unless an armed / violent agitation is carried out by the people of Telangana. primarily through an active interactive process. the fact that TRS. 5. 5. as d iscussed in the foregoing paras. While a strategy for handling medium and long term internal security dimensions. not only for the State but for Telangana as well. that may emerge can be developed as the final decision on the issue is taken by the government.2 The most important requirement for addressing the law and order problems that may arise in our view will be i) political clarity in terms of the future course of action and ii) the need for effective governance. It is to be effectively in stilled in their minds that this option is the best possible solution under the circumstances. Now since Telangana Praja Front ( Gaddar) and TRS have come together the situation has become even more serious. reportedly attended by nearly 5 lakh people and has also plans to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31. Police. 2010 while initiating the action under µ Maha Yudham¶ ( a massive war ) if Centre does not announce a separate Telangana. Intelligence. This call by the Maoists may attract unemployed youth both in rural and urban areas to join the movement and hence needs to be watched. has held the µ Telangana Maha Garjana¶ rally at Warangal on December 16. it would be seen that under each of the scenarios listed above. has to be dispelled in a suitable manner bringing out that it is in the best long term interest not only for the people of the State but also for the people of Telangana. e. Government of India will not create Separate Telangana. etc.

5. religious ethnic or cultural affiliations work towards this objective in a peaceful and harmonious manner.4 Role of National Integration Council ( NIC) : It is also felt that besides the action( s) suggested above. The TDP must be advised not to participate in any further meetings that would be called by t he Centre. There is also a need for providing strong and firm political leadershi p and placement of representatives of Telangana in key positions ( may be CM / Dy. Action also needs to be initiated for softening the TRS to extent possible. Inputs indicate that this agitation can be tackled if Telangana Congress leaders do not give an impression indicating any covert/ over support to it.backlash and law and order situations are contained and controlled effectively with minimum damage to human life and public and private proper ly while at the same time ensuring that the normal systems continue to operate and function in the State in a peaceful manner. The Committee therefore. suggests that in the instant case a suitable mechanism in this regard may be devised by the NIC in consultation with the Union and the State Governments for implementation in the State in addition to the other suggestions articulated in para 5. : may also kindly se e the Supplementary Note ( 3 pages) attached. With the ruling party and also the main opposition party ( the TDP run by Chandra Babu) must be brought on the same page.
.CM) ( Since done). B. The Committee feels that as enshrined in the charter of the NIC it has to be suitably emphasized that the social and economic justice can only be achieved if all the natives regardless of their linguistic. Gaddar¶s TPF ( Telangana Praja Front) who had parted company with TRS have again joined hands with TRS. Hence the Telangana Congress MPs / MLAs need to be taken into confidence and asked not to lend any form of support to the agitation. N. This aspect was discussed with FM & HM in September 2010. there is simultaneously a need for the National Integration Council ( NIC) to play a pro . the support mechanisms have a higher probability of becoming successful.2 above. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE a) Political Management: ( i) There is a need for ensuring unity among the leaders of the ruling party in the State. The Congress High Command must sensitize its own MPS and MLAs and educate them about the wisdom for arriving at an acceptable and workable solution.active role in the State with a view to foster a sense of harmony amongst different communities so that the divisive conflicts are taken care of disorder and violence is avoided and the important goals and objectives of socioeconomic growth are achieved irrespective of the fact whether the division of the State takes place or not. especially in the con text of the fact that TRS has threatened to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31 and also initiate a µ Maha Yuddam¶ ( a Massive war) if Centre does not announce a Separate Telangana.

media management assumes critical importance to ensure that only the reality is projected and no unnecessary hype is created. a general message should be conveyed amongst the people of the State that Centre will be open for detailed discussions on the recommendations / options of the Report with the concerned leaders / stakeholders either directly or through a Group of Ministers or through important interlocutors and that this process will start at the earliest. The print media is hugely dependent on the Government for advertisement revenue and if carefully handled can be an effective tool to achieve this goal. Most of the editors except Andhra Jyothi are pro . may be created. Except for two Channels ( R aj News & HMTV). P. the rest of them are supporters of a united Andhra Pradesh. This can be tackled by the owners of the media houses by systematically replacing the local journalists by those from Seemandhra wherever it is possible.united A. on receipt of the Committee¶s Report by the Government. The main editors/ resident and subeditors. similar to the electronic channels. The editorial opinions. self. ( ii) Further. ( ii) Hyderabad city which is expected to be the center of most of the agitations is generally covered by those journalists who are votaries of a separate Telangana. In the Print Media all major newspapers are owned by Seemandhra people and the Regional contents published by them play a vital role. Therefore. However. However. a re dominated by Seemandhra people.immolations etc. the District editions need to be managed to be realistic and should give only due coverage to the separate Telangana agitations. the beat journalists in the respective regions are locals and are likely to capture only those events/ news which reflect the regional sentiments. the banner headlines. Hence a lot of media hype on the Osmania University Students agitation. But every method must be adopted to avoid giving finality to any discussions to drag on the matter until the agitation is totally brought under control. In the immediate past. the print media have also got political affiliations. the Regional content. The Andhra Congress MPs belonging to Kamma caste must be encouraged to work in tandem with TDP leadership which is now caught in a bad shape. The equity holders of the channels except the above two and the entire Print Media are with the Seemandhra people. Each of the m edia houses are affiliated to different political parties.This could be an effective stumbling block for any meaningful dialogue on resolving the Telangana demand. ( c) Media Management: ( i) Andhra Pradesh has got about 13 Electronic Channels and 5 major local Newspapers which are in the forefront of molding the public opinion. the Film world etc.
. A coordinated action on their part has the potential of shaping the perception of the common man. it is observed that the media coverage on the issue has shown a declining trend resulting in a lower intensity of the agitation.

Osmania. an appropriate plan of deployment grid of police force ( both Central and State) with full technical support needs to be immediately drawn up. notwithstanding the actions taken in advance as suggested in ( a) and ( b) above. while at the same time effective enough to bring the agitationists quickly under control.) and the trouble creators in the three regions must be identified in advance and suitable action plan prepared.However. In a nutshell it may be concluded that the f irst couple of months will be critical after the submission of the Report. For this purpose necessary prohibitory orders under appropriate provisions of law can be issued in advance. as speculative stories will thrive and emotions of people incited. It would also be necessary to have a mechanism for monitoring the situation and collection of real time intelligence with a view to ensure taking up of effective advance action to preempt any break of violence in the potentially troubled spots. Krishna Devraya Universities etc. ( d) Full Preparedness ( i) As under each of the options there is a high possibility of agitational backlash. the RTI Act may prove to be an impediment for the Gov ernment to deny due share of ads to publications supporting the Telangana demand. In my discussions with Chief Secretary and DGP. Advance preparedness in this regard would go a long way in containing the law and order situation and minimize destruction of lives and property. it needs to be particularly ensured that media does not: ( a) Create a Psychosis of fear amongst the public ( b) Indulge in general and baseless speculations that can create unnecessary hype of any kind ( c) Arouse communal passions ( d) Show old and irrelevant clippings of violence / violent agitations etc. Kakatia. ( iii) In concrete terms. The likely troubled spots ( e. the kind of equipment and weap onry to be used were also discussed and it was agreed that weaponry used should be such as not to cause fatal injuries.
. g.