Robin Van Persie closes door on Arsenal deal | What the numbers say about his value

Good morning fans of Le Grove. It’s excellent to have you here this morning, it truly is.

Did you watch the England game last night? Wasn’t it a bit like watching an injury ravaged Bolton side from the mid 2000’s? That’s what it felt like to me. Sloppy, flat and lacking in ambition. I mean sure, a bulk of our best players weren’t there, but wow, when you’ve got a group of 11 English players together these days, it’s not a pretty site!

On the upswing of things we won. We also got to see appearances from Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Neither really did anything of note. The commentators did their best to talk up the Ox like he was the second coming of Theo Walcott circa 2006. Which is a shame. But I’d rather commentators wax lyrical about our players than Spurs ones.

I had a bit of a debate around Theo Walcott last night. I’m not a massive fan of the young winger. He’s not a striker. Hodgson, Capello, Pearce and MacClaren all agree. He’s a winger / attacking mid. He’ll always be a wide man because he’s too one dimensional as a striker. Now, this season saw an improvement in his game. But when all is said and done, 10 assists and 8 goals isn’t an impressive return for a player with the pace he has in the type of set up we have. People highlight his age and the fact that those returns are good for someone who is 23… and again, I don’t agree.

He’s played nearly 200 games for Arsenal. He’s played at the very highest level since he was 17. He’s on £60k a week. He’s looking for £100k a week. He’s won nothing with us. Nani, who is arguably the best attacking wideman in the Premier League has won the lot numerous times. He’s on £60k a week. Danny Wellbeck, who is at a similar stage in his development to Theo was on £15k a week last year and has been bumped up to £45k a week. So we’re not talking about a football problem here, we’re talking about an Arsenal problem.

The going rate for Theo is not £100k a week this summer. He shouldn’t be getting higher wages just because he wants them. He should be paid the market rate. If someone can offer more… sell him. I don’t think he’ll find those wages. Eden Hazard is 21 years old, he just played 50 games, bagged 21 goals and 18 assists. Marco Reus who just moved to Dortmund scored 18 goals and landed 9 assists. In 23 games, Gotze managed 8 goals and 8 assists. Those are starts worth of a big contract.

You can say that money doesn’t matter. Well it does. It absolutely matters what he earns. If he’s earning 80% above market rate, that’s money we can’t channel elsewhere. Our wage bill has to reflect reality if we want to compete. At the moment, it doesn’t because we pay on potential. If Theo wants money like that… sell him on and channel it into two players. Hoilett could do the same job Theo is now for well under £60k and he’s free. That gives you another £20mill to play with for another player. Maybe a striker like Giroud you could bring in on a pretty low salary.

Anyway… continuing on. The Mirror are reporting the news we’ve all been dreading. He’s told the club he’s packing his bags and he’s moving where the stars go… Manchester City. Now, when I spoke to my girl at the club the others day, she said no one knew what the deal was. So, this must have happened while he was away on International duty. I’m not saying I don’t believe the story, I’m just saying it all seems a bit odd just before the Euro’s kick off that you’d want to make the whole tournament about where you’re going to go.

That said, Sagna coming out yesterday and saying something totally different is a bit weird. Mind you, he did get it wrong about Cesc and Nasri last year.

Now I know we don’t want to sell our best players. But you really do have to put your business hats on sometimes. Robin Van Persie is going to be 29 this August. This is what his last 5 seasons have looked like.

49 – 28 – 17 – 36 -21

Averagely, that gives us 30.2 games per season. Take out last seasons wonder year of health, what do you have? An average of 20.4. Replace last year with the season he gave us 6 seasons ago what do you have? 25.5 games per season.

His return on goals has been impressive-ish. He’s averaged 19.6 goals a season over the last few years. A healthy return when you average 30.2 games a year. A goal every 1.54 games.

The goals are nice. They surely are, but having a player who historically, whilst in his prime, couldn’t manage a full season of games is bad business. Take this season out, which is a fairer reflection of his fitness, how could you justify £130k a week and £5million in bonus? Sure he’s our best player, but he won’t be any use to us if he returns to type next year. I can’t see how that won’t happen. You can’t guarantee a player will be fit the length of their contract. I know this. What you can do is weigh up the probabilities. They don’t look good for Robin.

The biggest fear amongst Arsenal fans isn’t the loss of Robin Van Persie. It’s the fear the manager won’t replace him adequately. Herein lies the problem people. If we never replace our best players, we never restore our reputation in the eyes of the squad. That means each year, our other remaining players who have done well will decide to jump. You know how you amend this issue? You go out and you make a serious, serious splash in the market.

Players love signings as much as the fans. They get a psychological boost knowing they’re going into work with guys they saw ripping it up at the Euro’s. We need to make sure if we sell Robin we go out and land a player like Falcao, Cavani or Giroud. We then need to make sure we sign a really top notch back up. Let’s land M’Vila or Martinez in defensive midfield and let’s really push United to their limits by trying to tempt Kagawa over. I appreciate United are United, but there must be a draw for a Japanese player to know the coach understands both German and Japanese.

The only way we’ll get out of the self perpetuating rut is change our behaviour and the perception amongst Europe’s big clubs that we’re a weak selling club who do things on the cheap. The fans can’t keep going through this nonsense every summer. Let’s rectify the wrongs and build if Robin goes. We can’t go into another season on a hope and prayer.

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Anyway, that’s my two pennies… what do you think?

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370 Responses to “Robin Van Persie closes door on Arsenal deal | What the numbers say about his value”

incesc
“what an idiot STDhe could have won the champions league had he stayed at chelsea and got the biggest TROPHY.”

Reply
& you are a 1st class fornicating idiot who just shouts from the rooftops,without thinking..

Carvalho,you donkey breath,won the UEFA CUP&CL back-2-back under Mourinho@ Porto…If he had stayed @ chelsea,yeah he would have won a 2nd Cl..
But still doesn’t detract from my original argument,that he left chelsea to be under mourinho,’cos he knew they would more trophies to win…

Very interesting post Pedro, definitely has the scent of coping with an imminent loss of RVP which i don’t know if I’m ready to accept, realistically or emotionally. I just can’t see him going to manshit, it seems below him even if he’ll be pulling in 300 a week, he just doesn’t seem the type.
Let’s pray we keep him and land some players- I want to challenge these manchester fucks next year. City is the most overrated team in history at the moment

Working in the betting industry I keep my eye on all odds and the transfer specials markets and sky bet are a ridiculously low 1-10 that yann m’vila joins arsenal that is the shortest price in any of there transfer betting markets.surprised also that man united are favourites to sign Eden hazard according to the bookies although that market is very tight

incesc
You forgot he had won it before…
Hence why you resorted to name calling@ the beginning of your sentence..It’s only when I conveniently reminded you,that he had won it before,you now tried to spin it,as if that is what you meant..

Don’t get smart with me…

Apologise,hold you hands up& all is forgiven..If you are a man with principle..

The fact that you are now feigning ignorance,says it all..That you are a duplicitous fornicating toe-rag like your idol-wenger!!

i dont idolise wenger, i dont want him managing arsenal anymore, but i dont irrationally hate everything he does so you think im his biggest fan. Its a pretty stupid way to think.

and i really dont care what cavahlo has won, you just said he went to madrid to win trophies and i pointed out if he had stayed at chelsea he would have won the biggest trophy of all. What the fuck has it got to do with whether he had won it before?

Finally got around to reading the Mirror piece and it’s worth throwing in my interpretation – and it’s an important point – is that he’s basically saying that we could throw all the money in the world at him – if we can’t convince him we can win trophies he’s off…for me it’s a clear instruction to Wenger and the board to get the chequebook out, nothing more, nothing less.

incesc
“and i really dont care what cavahlo has won, you just said he went to madrid to win trophies and i pointed out if he had stayed at chelsea he would have won the biggest trophy of all. What the fuck has it got to do with whether he had won it before?”

Reply

Exactly..But your name-calling me& you implying if he had stayed @ chelsea he would have won the biggest trophy CL…
Basically you tried to mock me..But when I reminded you he had won the biggest trophy@Porto previously..

You tried to cover your tracks,like the snivelling rat that you are,by implying that he would have had 2 CL trophies had he stayed on @ chelsea..You stated this after I had reminded you..

So once again..as this is what you do…Try to deviate,sidetrack,fudge the issue…

As I said previously apologise & all is forgiven..
It’s not hard,especially if you are a man of honour…

Clearly it shows you are not..If you are, prove me wrong..

Otherwise,I’ll just assume that you are weasel of the highest order& simply infer that you are also a prized c***t

“IncescWhy did Arteta move to us for a pay cut then?
Why did Cesc move for pay cut?
Why are players willing to play for Mancs, Real, Barca for much less of what they can churn somewhere else?You just can’t throw bubbles with no foundation”

Bade
“IncescWhy did Arteta move to us for a pay cut then?
Why did Cesc move for pay cut?
Why are players willing to play for Mancs, Real, Barca for much less of what they can churn somewhere else?”Reply
You also forgot to mention Carvalho,literally begging the Russian-RA to let him go,when Mourinho made the call from Madrid..His reason for moving was the plethora of trophies he would amass under Mourinho..Another example,would be Muntari,leaving Portsmouth for Inter Milan,when Mourinho came calling..The opportunity to win trophies was a major consideration in muntari’s thinking..”

Its never good business to sell your best player and captain to a rival. If RVP is sold to Man City-Arsenal will have confirmed that the club has no ambition apart from making money out of selling its best players. Even Lille are not selling Hazard to a rival.
If RVP decides to leave ok-but he can’t choose where to go until next year. Losing 20m by not selling him is less than half of the value we will lose in lost ECL revenue. How is that good business?

Sell Theo as well ?-is this a master plan to leave us with a team that will play in the championship in 2 years time?
RVP and Theo are 2 players who should be going no where-not when we have half a squad of over-paid duds. Theo isn’t the greatest but he isn’t as bad as you claim-Chelsea and Juve would have him-may be Barca-are they all a bad judge of player. So you’d sell Theo and keep Gervinho what? Are you mad?

incesc
“what an idiot STDhe could have won the champions league had he stayed at chelsea and got the biggest TROPHY.”Reply
& you are a 1st class fornicating idiot who just shouts from the rooftops,without thinking..Carvalho,you donkey breath,won the UEFA CUP&CL back-2-back under Mourinho@ Porto…If he had stayed @ chelsea,yeah he would have won a 2nd Cl..
But still doesn’t detract from my original argument,that he left chelsea to be under mourinho,’cos he knew they would more trophies to win…FFS…Dog breath”

Let’s keep our heads and remember what time it is for English newspapers. It’s silly season because the football has finished and they have nothing to write about for 2-3 whole weeks. What is the biggest two stories at the minute, it’s Hazard & RVP. We had a good day for rumours for arsenal yesterday, so sunday to keep people buying them and reading them it must be bad day to day.

Like Hazard yesterday sources say Man Utd, today nailed on Chelsea signing, tomorrow he will be a City player for sure. The day after who knows they could be saying Arsenal succeed with 23rd hr bid or something.

Pedro, I agree that Walcott does not deserve 100k per week, but your view about RVP is 100%-ly match the thought pattern of a typical mumbling of an ignorant arm chair fan, truly.

Btw, Arsenal is a club where the owner & the board want to win trophy but back those ambition with the willingness and commitment to achieve it. Kronke = could not careless, PHW and the gang are a bunch of IDIOT to give Arsenal, a footballing club to an American owner who only like football as a side dish. I don’t mind if RVP leave because Arsenal don’t deserve top player.

I agree with the sentiment that we are lucky. It doesn’t sometimes seem that way on the pitch but looking at the big picture, I can’t reconcile how on earth we ended up 3rd and more importantly, how we have been managing a top 4 finish for the last 8 years. I say 8 years because our decline began sometime around that period where we suddenly switched from bringing in good players to selling them and replacing with a cheaper version or not at all, year in year out.

However, obviously we have not been “lucky enough” to win anything but the extra money from player sales and CL has kept us afloat. We are basically still “winging it” with a majority of substandard players in the first team.

This season gone was particularly lucky because we were down to just one solitary star player in the team. All the rest could easily play for any club in the premier league and you probably wouldn’t give any of them a second glance if you were serious about winning titles; but that’s another story.

That leaves a huge dilemma. Is it really just a fortunate concatenation of events (e.g. other teams failing to take advantage of our collapse by experiencing an even bigger collapse themselves) or is it because Wenger managed to pull it off once again? I’d go for a mixture but not an exact split; something like 70:30 in favour of luck.

Like most others, I think our luck will run out on us big time (like it did last season but for van Persie’s form) and we could find ourselves being the prey rather than the predator. If at such a point (perhaps midway through the season) it becomes apparent that our fate is sealed and we are condemned to finish no higher than mid table, we can expect a spectacular exodus of players from the club come end of season and suffer the consequences of being in the wilderness perhaps for years to come if the current owner or philosophy decides to cling on.

Certainly I think under such circumstances AW and the immediate hierarchy will leave and we the fans will be left to pick up the pieces. But it is so glaringly obvious that to avoid that scenario, we have been afforded one last chance, one final season to do the right thing and change that horrible timeline of events. Everyone, including players, are screaming at Wenger to shore up the team, pay whatever is necessary, bring in quality signings, clear out expensive useless players and give us a chance to compete not just for top 4 but at least one of the top two trophies e.g. EPL or CL.

If it turns out that the stubborn intransigence continues and we just scratch the surface with a few token signings (i.e. nothing that’s going to make any difference and that’s how it looks at the moment) I suggest we brace ourselves and hold on to our hats. It is going to be a bumpy ride because lady luck does not suffer fools indefinitely.

I agree with the sentiment that we are lucky. It doesn’t sometimes seem that way on the pitch but looking at the big picture, I can’t reconcile how on earth we ended up 3rd and more importantly, how we have been managing a top 4 finish for the last 8 years. I say 8 years because our decline began sometime around that period where we suddenly switched from bringing in good players to selling them and replacing with a cheaper version or not at all, year in year out.

However, obviously we have not been “lucky enough” to win anything but the extra money from player sales and CL has kept us afloat. We are basically still “winging it” with a majority of substandard players in the first team.

This season gone was particularly lucky because we were down to just one solitary star player in the team. All the rest could easily play for any club in the premier league and you probably wouldn’t give any of them a second glance if you were serious about winning titles; but that’s another story.

That leaves a huge dilemma. Is it really just a fortunate concatenation of events (e.g. other teams failing to take advantage of our collapse by experiencing an even bigger collapse themselves) or is it because Wenger managed to pull it off once again? I’d go for a mixture but not an exact split; something like 70:30 in favour of luck.

Like most others, I think our luck will run out on us big time (like it did last season but for van Persie’s form) and we could find ourselves being the prey rather than the predator. If at such a point (perhaps midway through the season) it becomes apparent that our fate is sealed and we are condemned to finish no higher than mid table, we can expect a spectacular exodus of players from the club come end of season and suffer the consequences of being in the wilderness perhaps for years to come if the current owner or philosophy decides to cling on.

Certainly I think under such circumstances AW and the immediate hierarchy will leave and we the fans will be left to pick up the pieces. But it is so glaringly obvious that to avoid that scenario, we have been afforded one last chance, one final season to do the right thing and change that horrible timeline of events. Everyone, including players, are screaming at Wenger to shore up the team, pay whatever is necessary, bring in quality signings, clear out expensive useless players and give us a chance to compete not just for top 4 but at least one of the top two trophies e.g. EPL or CL.

If it turns out that the stubborn intransigence continues and we just scratch the surface with a few token signings (i.e. nothing that’s going to make any difference and that’s how it looks at the moment) I suggest we brace ourselves and hold on to our hats. It is going to be a bumpy ride because lady luck does not suffer fools indefinitely.

(Sorry used wrong email in my last post and posted again with the right one because the previous one went into moderation)

Some good points made above, although I don’t agree with every asepct of your rather clincal breakdown of events. Stats are one thing, and we all know Arsene loves some oaty stats with his breakfasts, but football does not run in such a robotic, measured manner … it is a game of emotion and expectation, and that is what enthralls and frustratees in equal measure. Contrary to the suggestion you make about RvP and his past performance stats, I think he has turned a corner medically and the best is yet to come from him over the next 2-3 seasons … so, whoever has got him will possibly see increasing returns in terms of goals over the stretch ( and as a striker that is what counts for any team he’s in ). I feel that he must be kept at all costs and a Giraud would still be welcomed as a healthy second option. We already have genuine quality with Podolski. If we can get M’Villa, Demspey and possibly Vertoghen from under the noses of the pretenders up the road, we’ll really have a squad of contention next year, regardless of who signs the Hazard’s of this well elsewhere in the Premiership ?