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Monday, June 19, 2017

The Gulf Crisis Grappling for a face saving solution

A two-week old conflict in the Gulf goes to the core of key
issues in international relations that hamper the fight against political
violence and govern diplomatic relations: the absence of an agreed definition
of terrorism that allows autocrats to abuse efforts to counter extremism by
repressing non-violent critics and the ability of small states to chart their
own course and punch above their weight.

Proponents of maintaining the term terrorism as a
multi-interpretable catchall phrase argue that one man’s terrorist is another’s
liberation fighter. While that is no doubt true, it applies to persons and
groups that see violence as a legitimate tool but misses the mark when applied
to non-violent critics, particularly proponents of a pluralistic, democratic
environment and/or forms of Islamic governance that challenge monarchical
autocracy.

Authoritarian leaders like the Gulf ruling families, Turkish
president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Egyptian-general-turned-president Abdel
Fattah Al Sisi have a vested interest in either imposing their definition of
terrorism on the international community or preventing it from adopting a
definition.

The absence of a definition has allowed them to brutally suppress
basic human rights, including freedoms of expression and the media, and to put
tens of thousands of non-violent critics behind bars.

Bahrain this week, in a bid to pressure the United States to
adopt the Saudi-UAE definition of terrorism that includes any group, violent or
not, that challenges government or potentially questions their autocratic rule,
expelled
Qatari military personnel working at a US military base on the island state.
The expulsion was the first indication that the Gulf crisis could affect the US
defensive umbrella for the region as well as operations to defeat the Islamic
State in Iraq and Syria.

In a twist of irony, Bahrain’s minority Sunni Muslim ruling
Al Khalifa family relies on support
of the

Muslim Brotherhood, a main target of the Saudi-UAE-led boycott of
Qatar, to counter opposition from the Gulf state’s Shiite majority. Yet, it has
been exempted from the ire of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Bahrain joined the
Saudi-UAE-led boycott of Qatar and accused Doha of seeking
to overthrow its government.

There is little doubt that Qatar maintains ties to jihadist
militants as does Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, there is also little doubt that
the Saudi-UAE effort to force Qatar to adopt their sweeping definition of
terrorism would undermine US-backed efforts to maintain a back channel to
militants.

In one such instance, the US State Department in a letter
to US Republican Congressman Peter J. Roskam during the 2014 Gaza war noted
that Qatar was important in efforts to get Hamas, the Islamist group that
traces its roots to the Muslim Brotherhood and controls Gaza, to accept a
ceasefire with Israel. The department further pointed out that Qatar was also
funding the internationally recognized Palestine Authority headed by President
Mahmoud Abbas.

“We need countries that have leverage over the leaders of
Hamas to help put a ceasefire in place. Qatar may be able to play that role as
it has done in the past,” Assistant Secretary for Legal Affairs

Frifield
said in the letter. At the same time, Ms. Frifield admitted that the US was
pushing Qatar to be more compliant in its crackdown on funding of political
violence, which she described as “inconsistent.”

Hamas has been designated as a terrorist organization by the
United States and the European Union, but not the United Nations. The EU has
kept Hamas on its terrorism list despite a controversial EU court ruling that
it should be removed.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE appear, two weeks into the boycott
of Qatar, to be struggling to present Qatar with their demands or what Saudi
Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir termed “grievances.”
While there was no explanation why demands had not yet been tabled, it seemed
likely that the two Gulf countries were trying to establish which demands stood
a chance to garner international support. They have said they would put forward
their demands within days.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signalled through their media
and various statements by officials that they want Qatar to break its ties to
Islamists, including the Brotherhood and Hamas, as well as shutter
Qatar-sponsored media, first and foremost among which the Al Jazeera television
network.

Speaking in an interview, UAE
Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash lumped the Brotherhood, Hamas and Al Qaeda
together as terrorist organizations and demanded that Qatar be put under some
kind of international supervision.

“If we get clear strategic signals that Qatar is going to
change and it will stop funding violent Islamist militants that is the basis
for a discussion, but we would need a monitoring system. We do not trust them.
There is zero trust, but we need a monitoring system and we need our western
friends to play a role in this,” Mr. Gargash told The Guardian. In separate
comments to journalists in Paris, Mr. Gargash suggested that the Saudi-UAE-led effort
to isolate Qatar “may last for years.”

Many in the international community, including the United
States, which could emerge as the major mediator in the Gulf crisis, are
unlikely to support curbing of the press. Saudi Arabia and the UAE more over
differ over the degree to which the Muslim Brotherhood poses a problem.

If that were not enough to complicate the formulation of a
list of demands, US
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that seeking to ban the
Brotherhood was all but impossible. Speaking to the House Committee on Foreign
Relations, Mr. Tillerson cautioned that designating the Brotherhood, with an
estimated membership of 5 million, as a terrorist organization would
“complicate matters” with America’s relations with foreign governments.

“There are elements of the Muslim Brotherhood that have
become parts of governments. Those elements… have done so by renouncing
violence and terrorism,” Mr. Tillerson said. He said groups affiliated with the
Brotherhood that commit violence had already been added to the US terrorism
list.

By breaking off diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposing
an economic boycott on the Gulf state without a clear definition of demands
that stood a chance to win international support, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have
put themselves in a position in which they are effectively grappling for a
face-saving exit strategy.

In the process, they have highlighted the danger of not
clearly defining what constitutes terrorism and who is a terrorist not only for
the rule of law and defense of human rights but also for the credibility of
autocrats who abuse the void in their bid to arbitrarily impose their will.

The United States, France, Iran, Pakistan, Morocco, Turkey
and Kuwait have urged both sides to quickly resolve their differences in
negotiations. The calls put Saudi Arabia and the UAE further on the spot as
long as they do not table a clear set of demands that resonate with the
international community.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile