Spurred by a new wave of Skype-linked families, Hulu-watching flash mobs, and HD-video downloaders, global internet traffic is likely to quadruple by 2012. That’s an internet 75 times larger than it was just five years ago. It will be generating 27 exabytes—nearly 7 billion DVDs worth—of data each month.

Wired.com had an article today titled “Broadband 2.0 Poised to Reshape Web, TV” talking about Verizon and Comcast driving to speeds of 50 – 100 Mbps and how having those speeds will not only enable, but change the ways people use the media. A much richer experience is in store with audio and video.

It’s about time for this to occur. The speeds will beget the applications. Will it be available and affordable for everyone?

” Speaking at a Westminster eForum on Web 2.0 this week in London, Jim Cicconi, vice president of legislative affairs for AT&T, warned that the current systems that constitute the Internet will not be able to cope with the increasing amounts of video and user-generated content being uploaded.”

Claims:

at least $55 billion worth of investment was needed in new infrastructure in the next three years in the U.S. alone, with the figure rising to $130 billion to improve the network worldwide

unprecedented new wave of broadband traffic” would increase 50-fold by 2015

Eight hours of video is loaded onto YouTube every minute. Everything will become HD very soon, and HD is 7 to 10 times more bandwidth-hungry than typical video today. Video will be 80 percent of all traffic by 2010, up from 30 percent today

In three years’ time, 20 typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet today

Wow! Is this really correct? The one that may be the kicker is the one about video being 80% of all traffic by 2010. I see this coming.

In an article entitled FCC approves new method for tracking broadband’s reach from CNet, and cited by Engadget, there is some movement in realizing all of the data and FCC reports to-date are really bogus and a new way to count who has broadband and what is broadband is a-foot. See the quotes from a couple of the FCC Commissioners below:

Democratic Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein said, “This is really the first step toward the national broadband strategy that we so desperately need.”

The major components are:

definition of broadband

reporting of upload and download speeds

How upload and download speeds are determined

Reporting of broadband subscribers at a census block level instead of Zip Code

ISPs will not have to report what they charge for broadband….Yet

All but #5 are a good step forward, but they’re not looking at reality if they think broadband is 768Kbps. Sure it’s faster than dial-up and the old standard of 200Kbps, but it doesn’t accommodate one of the fasting growing segments on the internet and that’s streaming video. I’d hate to try to watch a video at 768Kbps maximum.

Reporting at a census block level is a very good improvement and takes a realistic look at much smaller segments.

Keep going FCC! Again, it’s time for that “Man on the Moon” vision for broadband in America! A vision that will push the limits of the technology into even greater spheres.