I've spent almost my entire career as a journalist covering tech in and around Silicon Valley, meeting entrepreneurs, executives and engineers, watching companies rise and fall (or in the case of Apple, rise, fall and rise again) and attending confabs and conferences. Before joining Forbes in February 2012, I had a very brief stint in corporate communications at HP (on purpose) and worked for more than six years on the tech team at Bloomberg News, where I dived into the financial side of tech. Before that, I was Silicon Valley bureau chief for Interactive Week, a contributor to Wired and Upside, and a reporter and news editor for MacWeek. The first computer game I ever played was Zork, my collection of now-vintage tech T-shirts includes a tie-dye BMUG classic and a HyperCard shirt featuring a dog and fire hydrant. When I can work at home, I settle into the black Herman Miller Aeron chair that I picked up when NeXT closed its doors. You can email me at cguglielmo@forbes.com.

Apple Loop: Here Comes The iPad Mini, Building A Patent Arsenal, The Right Touch

Keeping you in the loop on some of the things happening around Apple this week.

Like the iPad, only smaller. Is there really a new, smaller-screen iPad coming? Yes, according to my sources. I, and many others, now expect the iPad mini (though doubt that’s the real name) to be announced Oct. 23, likely at an event at Apple’s Cupertino campus. That should give the company plenty of time to deliver it to customers during the all-important holiday shopping season. What to expect? A 7.85-inch screen (compared to the 9.7-inch iPad display), and a price tag in the $200s (compared to the $399 starting price for an iPad 2 and $499 iPad 3). Of course it will be lighter and run iOS 6. Brian White, an analyst at Topeka Capital Markets, said he visited a technology trade show in China where more than 20 suppliers showed off iPad mini accessories. Says White, “We expect 5 million to 7 million iPad Mini unit sales in the December quarter but ultimately we believe this new device will surpass the unit volumes of the regular-sized iPad.” The iPad, in case you didn’t know accounts for about a fourth of Apple’s sales (the iPhone is the biggest moneymaker at almost half of revenue).

Show me the money. Just how well did the iPhone 5 do? We find out on Oct. 25, when Apple announces fourth-quarter results. Here’s how it works. Analysts are expecting sales of $36.4 billion and profit of $8.91 a share. (Apple, which typically underestimates its earnings, said it anticipates sales of about $34 billion and earnings per share of about $7.65.) But as anyone who has followed Apple knows, having the company blow past estimates isn’t necessarily enough to impress investors. Apple’s shares are down 11 percent from a closing high of $702.10 on Sept. 19 on concerns around supply constraints, production issues at its factories in China, the fallout of Mapgate. What might get those shares up? Well, introducing a new product in new markets (hello iPhone 5 in China) usually helps. But I think this analysis by Ben Reitzes is worth considering:

“While there has been ample speculation around Apple’s next move – potentially into TV’s – we believe “the next big thing” for Apple may more about TAM expansion of existing product lines. We believe Apple has more control to expand the total addressable market (TAM) for its iPhones and iPads than its competitors given its vertically integrated business model. We feel one of the best ways to increase the iOS device TAM is by expanding use cases so that every home could use an iOS device as a TV remote. If Apple prices its products right – and innovates with software and features, we believe that the iPad TAM can expand by well over 100 million units within just a few years – helping add over $12 in incremental earnings per share power from our fiscal year 2012 EPS estimate of about $44.”

Patent quest. Thanks to the Apple versus Samsung trial, the world knows how serious the folks in Cupertino are about their patents. But a New York Times report sheds even more light on Apple’s thinking about patents. Former CEO Steve Jobs apparently got super serious about patents after the company had to pay $100 million in 2006 to settle a patent dispute with Creative Technology, related to Creative’s innovations around the digital media player. “His attitude was that if someone at Apple can dream it up, then we should apply for a patent, because even if we never build it, it’s a defensive tool,” Nancy Heinen, who served as Apple’s general counsel, told the newspaper. After that, Apple’s engineers were asked to participate in monthly “invention disclosure sessions” to determine if their ideas were patentable. Also of note: Apple applied and then re-applied for a patent related to a voice-and-text-based search engine 10 times before it was approved. “It is known as the Siri patent because it is widely viewed as one of the linchpins of Apple’s strategy to protect its smartphone technologies,” the Times noted.

Kids stuff. I don’t know about you, but when I was a kid one of my most prized possessions was my orange Duncan Butterfly Yo-Yo. Obviously, times have changed. According to Piper Jaffray, 40 percent of the 7,700 teens it surveyed own an iPhone. That’s up from 34 percent in spring 2012 and 23 percent in fall 2011. They’re big Apple iPad users too, with 44 percent owning an Apple tablet, up from 34 percent in spring 2012 and 29 percent in fall 2011. Says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, “It is a positive sign for the power of the iPhone among younger users that Apple was able to expand its market share with teens despite no new product launches between our Spring and Fall 2012 surveys.” By the way, 62 percent of those teens said they expect to buy an iPhone as their next phone. And of the 20 percent of kids who said they don’t already own a tablet, 74 percent said they plan on buying an iPad in the next six months and are looking toward an iPad mini. “The smaller iPad appears to be an attractive option for teens as 43 percent of teens planning on buying a tablet said they would be more likely to do so if Apple released a smaller iPad at $299,” said Munster. If buying your teen an iPad or iPhone isn’t in your holiday shopping plans, let me point out that Duncan Butterfly Yo-Yo’s sell for $5 to $7.

Reach out and iPod Touch. Apple began selling the fifth-generation of the iPod Touch this week and the reviewers give it mostly high marks. “The latest iPod Touch is the best iPod ever, and as close to a phoneless iPhone 5 as you can get — but its high price makes it a tough call versus cheaper tablets with larger screens,” says CNET. “Apple updated all the right things, and by giving the touch a big screen and good camera has made this mini tablet a more versatile device than ever,” adds The Verge. For a roundup of reviews, go here.

An overpriced Apple product? That’s what auction house Christie’s in London basically had to say about a rare Apple 1, which didn’t sell after failing to garner the opening price of $80,000 (50,000 British pounds). The top bid was for 32,000 pounds – or just a little over $51,000. The motherboard, which originally sold for $666.66 without a keyboard, mouse or screen and was hand built by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, came from the estate of Joe Copson, a former Apple employee. “According to the Christie’s overview and lot notes, this particular Apple 1 motherboard is numbered 01-0022 — indicating that it was the 22nd model ever made. Printed on the circuit board is Apple Computer 1, Palo Alto, CA 1976,” ABC News reported.

A music video from director Ryan Patrick imagines Steve Jobs as a baking prodigy, who eventually turns to computers.

Steve Jobs, the baking prodigy. What if Steve Jobs had funneled his passions into apples, the fruit, rather than technology? Director Ryan Patrick imagines Jobs as a “baking prodigy instead of a computer genius” in a new video set to the music of Swedish band Miike Snow. The video starts at “The Jobs Family Farm, Cupertino, CA” and shows a young Jobs discovered by his parents in a shed working with chicken wire. Here’s PC mag’s pithy synopsis: “It then follows our hero, now in his early 20s and decked out in a series of thread-worn rock T-shirts, as he runs up yellow California hills, climbs an apple tree, bakes pies with the frenzy of a mad scientist, and meets a girl in the big city, all while appearing to see (or hallucinate) electronics wiring coming out of the objects and people he encounters.” Bizarre? Yes. Enjoy.

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