POLITICS: THE VOTERS

Public Favors The Democrats, New Poll Finds

By RICHARD L. BERKE

Published: August 8, 1996

SAN DIEGO, Aug. 7—
For the first time in four years, the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably by voters than the Republican Party, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Underscoring the challenges facing the Republicans as they gather here to nominate Bob Dole for President next week, the poll showed that the concerns that contributed to voters' repudiation of the Democratic-controlled Congress in 1994 have substantially subsided.

On several policy fronts, from specifics like fairness in taxation to broader themes like helping people ''achieve the American dream,'' registered voters said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans by wide margins.

Despite lingering qualms about President Clinton's character, voters found him far more appealing in several areas than Mr. Dole and were more inclined to favor Democratic candidates for Congress as well. Indeed, when asked how they would vote in their Congressional elections this fall, Americans gave Democrats a larger edge than the Republicans had in the 1994 election when they seized both houses of Congress.

The poll of 1,166 adults nationwide, which has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, was conducted by telephone from Saturday to Monday. It was completed before Mr. Dole announced his campaign's economic platform on Monday and could not reflect whatever boost he might have received from that effort.

The survey found that the nation was divided over the notion of a 15-percent across-the-board tax cut, which formed the core of his proposal.

But the poll highlighted untapped reservoirs of potential strength for Mr. Dole and his party, particularly the anxieties of middle-class people over the future of their children. Nearly half of registered voters said they thought that the next generation would be worse off than people today, and close to 6 out of 10 said the Clinton Administration should do more to help the middle class. And, as they have for more than a decade, Americans said they trusted Republicans more than Democrats to insure a sound economy.

In announcing his economic plan this week, Mr. Dole made explicit appeals to the unease of middle-class Americans, and his advisers hope he can capitalize on those issues as the nation's attention turns to the convention, which opens on Monday. ''Let me suggest this simple test,'' Mr. Dole said in his speech. ''Ask yourself, do you believe America is on the right track today, and do you believe that we are building a future that is better for our children?''

Still, in making the economy a centerpiece of his argument that people should favor him over Mr. Clinton, Mr. Dole has a hard sell. Although they express long-term concerns, 63 percent of those polled judged the economy to be in good shape. Only 23 percent gave the economy such high marks in late October of 1992; it was those anxieties that helped set the stage for Mr. Clinton's defeat of President George Bush.

Beyond Mr. Dole's potential inroads on the economy, the poll showed that he maintained his advantage on character issues. Seven out of 10 voters said Mr. Dole shared the moral values most Americans try to live by; Mr. Clinton drew 58 percent on that count. But both Presidential contenders fared better on this than the collective members of Congress; only 39 percent said members of Congress shared those moral values.

Even with Mr. Clinton's vulnerabilities, the survey made clear that the party is in a more competitive position than Republicans as the convention phase of the campaign gets under way. The Democratic convention opens in Chicago on Aug. 26.

Over all, 55 percent of registered voters expressed a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 39 percent were unfavorable. By contrast, 46 percent held a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, and 47 percent unfavorable. That is a striking turnabout in the image of the Democrats. Not since before Mr. Clinton's election in 1992 have more than half the voters expressed such a positive image of the party.

Mr. Clinton's announcement last week that he would sign the welfare bill only solidified his support. Fifty-two percent of voters said he did the right thing; only 6 percent said it was the wrong thing to do and 40 percent said they did not know enough about the measure. Even so, voters were about evenly divided when asked if they would still back the President's decision if it meant that many more children would be living in households below the poverty line.

There was no sign of erosion in the President's months-long lead over Mr. Dole: Fifty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote for Mr. Clinton if they election were held today, while 34 percent would back Mr. Dole.

The picture may be even rosier for Mr. Clinton should Ross Perot, as expected, win the nomination of his Reform Party and run again for President.

When Mr. Perot is included in the trial heat, Mr. Clinton's support rises slightly to 58 percent; Mr. Dole's falls back to 28 percent, and Mr. Perot draws 10 percent. Mr. Perot seems to have lost some luster: only 15 percent of registered voters have favorable views of him and nearly half hold an unfavorable view.