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Rice futures prices will pick up steam this year, thanks to tight U.S. supplies and robust demand.

U.S. rice stockpiles have been shrinking for the past two years, as farmers have chosen to grow other crops instead. At the same time, recent export demand for U.S. rice has been strong.

Now, with rice plantings likely to stay relatively low for a third straight year, analysts say the accumulated effect of the pressure on supplies is due to cause a price jump.

"Supplies are already fairly constricted," says Mike Wall, an independent trader at the Chicago Board of Trade. "If the crop does not come off in great shape, we are going to get very tight next year."

Lightly traded rice futures on Friday settled at $15.195 per hundredweight at the Chicago Board of Trade, nearly flat on the week. Rice prices could rise as high as $18.50 per hundredweight this summer if recent delays continue for planting of the new crop, Wall says.

The world overall isn't short on rice. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects record global rice production in the current crop year, and some analysts say world rice prices could fall in the short term owing to big supply in Asia.

But the Western Hemisphere, which is distinct from Asia in the fragmented world rice market, faces tighter supplies. The U.S. and South America largely compete to export rice within the Americas and to the Middle East. And both the U.S. and South America have seen lower rice acreage in the past two years, as farmers have turned to plant higher-priced corn and soybeans instead.

The USDA in March forecast American farmers planting 2.6 million acres of rice this year, down 3% from last year. That would be the lowest since 1987 and down 28% from 2010, when high prices fueled a surge in acreage.

Plantings could turn out even lower than currently forecast. The USDA estimates that 55% of the U.S. rice crop had been planted as of May 5, below the five-year average of 66% for that point in the year, owing largely to delayed plantings in Arkansas, the top rice-growing state. With planting running behind the usual pace, yield expectations could fall for the crop, and some farmers who face severe delays could switch to soybeans, analysts say.

Jack Scoville, vice president of brokerage Price Futures Group in Chicago, says rice plantings this year could ultimately run about 5% lower than the USDA forecast.

RICE FUTURES COULD GET AN EXTRA boost in coming months if Chinese regulators approve a U.S. request to allow imports of U.S. milled rice. China's rice imports surged last year, and the country is the world's biggest consumer. Approval of U.S. imports would give a psychological boost to the market, and U.S. rice sales to the country could then gradually grow over the long term.

Cash markets—where physical grain is bought and sold—are currently strong for rice. Buyers in Arkansas are paying a premium over futures prices, whereas they usually get a discount because of abundant local supplies, Scoville says. He believes rice futures could rise to between $16.50 and $17 per hundredweight this summer: "Futures are trying to reflect the cheaper world prices as seen in Asia, not what prices are like here."