The Day Ahead: It's a Balloon!

What in Sam Hill is the deal with this crazy stock market? Macro reads are telling a tale of nasty May surprises. Earnings releases smell like a bag of trash left outside to melt on a hot, sunny summer day. We all better join an Investing 101 class held by some obscure online education institution to learn the new skills to survive.

Although on Monday I suggested that the week would begin with gusto, the market is fighting tooth and nail to remain in the green pastures. Consider these five things the market has had to deal with inside of two sessions:

Spain GDP is down seven straight quarters.

German unemployment is slightly in line with consensus.

Inflation in the European Union is at a three-year low, shedding light on why U.S. multinationals struggled there in the first half of 2013: No pricing power!

New record unemployment rate in the E.U. -- 19.2 million are minus a gig.

Japan's retail sales fell 0.3% in March; the consensus was at a 0.6% gain.

But I suppose a kiss of the booboo by the European Central Bank later this week will heal the wounds, right? Wrong. I continue to believe the market could fade any ECB action and completely sell off should these slow-to-move, boring-looking people stand firm in terms of policy action (policy action that may or may not reignite subpar growth six months down the line). After wrapping your head around the overseas fun stuff, consider the collective badness on our own shores:

Consumer confidence advanced so severely as if to hint at a near-term, tax-check-related top. It's rather probable that gains here are not sustained, given reads on the economy on offer from more pertinent samples.

Speaking of the path ahead, the market has bid itself higher right into a non-farm payrolls report that has "surprise" (of the unfortunate type) written all over it...

Chicago PMI, April

49 headline vs. 52.5 consensus, a three-year low.

A three-month downtrend in the employment component.

Sharp fall in order backlogs.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment, April. Yes, it beat, similar to the Conference Board's, however: