By the Bye: Is the NFC North up for grabs?

By the Bye: Is the NFC North up for grabs?

Aaron Rodgers is likely out for the year. So is Sam Bradford. The Chicago Bears have made the switch to rookie Mitchell Trubisky and Matthew Stafford is licking his wounds after suffering a host of injuries over the past two weeks.

The Lions are No. 11, second-best in the division, at 11.7 percent better than average.

Falling well behind them are the Green Bay Packers, who rank 18th at 3.8 percent. Interestingly, the DAVE metric (a mix of DVOA and preseason-projected DVOA, currently weighted about 4/5th toward the actual results) also puts Green Bay at No. 18—meaning Football Outsiders never saw a roll-out-of-bed 12-4 season for this Packers squad.

The Chicago Bears have appeared feisty to the naked eye, scaring some very good teams (including the Vikings). But DVOA really does not like them so far, ranking them 29th at -28.6 percent.

The standings

It’s pretty simple: The Vikings are 4-2, and so is Green Bay. Detroit is 3-3, and Chicago is 2-4. But if the division plays out as closely as many now expect, tiebreakers are going to be huge in the final accounting.

Minnesota is 2-1 in division, with head-to-head wins over the Packers and Bears. But the Vikings lost to Detroit at home, and still have to go on the road to Ford Field and Lambeau Field.

Green Bay’s 1-1 in division, with a home win over Chicago and a road loss to Minnesota. They still have to play at Soldier Field, host the Vikings and play both legs of the Detroit series—all, likely, without the services of Rodgers.

Even if Chicago goes on a run, they’re already two games behind the division leaders and 0-2 against the two of them.

Detroit’s already played one of the two hardest fixtures, at Minnesota, and won. If they can beat a Rodgers-less Packers in Lambeau in three weeks, they’ll be 2-0 with just the Solider Field visit and the three home games left to play.

The schedule

The entire division has a relatively soft non-conference schedule, but some are softer than others.

Minnesota’s non-NFC North opponents are the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Washington, Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals. Those teams have a collective record of 19-21 (.475 win percentage), and their average DVOA rank is 14.4.

Green Bay’s got it slightly easier. They’ll face the New Orleans Saints, Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Browns and Panthers. That set’s collective record is 16-18 (.471), with an average DVOA rank of 15.7.

Chicago? They’ve got it even easier: Panthers, Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, 49ers, Bengals, Browns. That group is 15-20 (.429), with a 16.2 average DVOA rank.

Detroit’s got the easiest extradivisional slate of all. Their remaining opponents are the Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Bengals and Buccaneers. Those teams are currently 11-17 (.393), with an average DVOA ranking of 17.0.

Up for grabs

The Vikings are tied for the division lead at 4-2, and have been the best team through six weeks. But between Case Keenum and the returning Teddy Bridgewater, who’ll play quarterback for them (and how well) is a total unknown.

Minnesota’s also taken a home division loss, and has the hardest remaining schedule (both in- and out-of-division).

Green Bay is also 4-2, advanced metrics show they’re a pretty flawed team—and while they know who their quarterback will be, the surety of Brett Hundley is cold comfort.

Though their non-division slate is slightly softer than the Vikings’, the Packers’ divisional gauntlet run is as tough as it gets—and they’ve already lost in Minnesota.

Chicago’s non-division schedule sets up nicely, and Trubisky appears ready to give them some quality quarterback play. But they’ve already got a hole to dig out of,