Deutch Enters Congressional Race

Takes Fronrunner Mantle

October 15, 2009|Posted by Anthony Man on October 15, 2009 07:03 PM

Barely 48 hours after the blogosphere started buzzing with the news that U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler was resigning, Democratic state Sen. Ted Deutch said he?s going after the seat, hoping to win a promotion to Congress.

By acting fast, Deutch gained the mantle of frontrunner, and political insiders and analysts say he?s a heavy favorite to replace Wexler.

?He?s extremely well positioned,? said Florida Atlantic University political scientist Kevin Wagner.

Thursday?s announcement came only a day after Wexler officially announced his plan to resign the Palm Beach-Broward county congressional seat in January.

?If you?re in a particularly strong position, you?re not going to wait,? Wagner said. ?You?re going to go as quickly as possible. What you?d like to do is preempt other politicians from jumping in.?

Wagner and Democratic insiders said several factors make Deutch formidable:

Geography

Deutch?s current state Senate district includes about half the registered voters in Wexler?s Congressional District, so voters there know him.

Deutch?s base is in Palm Beach County, and the vast majority of the district is in Palm Beach County.

Broward, by contrast, is home to several possible candidates. If they run, they split the Broward share of the vote, said the county?s Democratic chairman, Mitch Ceasar.

Wexler

Top Wexler aides are helping Deutch, and one was on hand Thursday -- taking a vacation day -- at Deutch?s home Thursday afternoon to help orchestrate the announcement news conference.

And many expect the departing congressman to endorse Deutch.

Wagner said that would be ?a game changing endorsement in that district because Wexler is very popular with his constituents.?

Jewish community

Before entering politics, Deutch was active in Jewish philanthropic efforts and in pro-Israel activities. In the Florida Senate, he sponsored a law that required state pension funds to divest investments in companies in Iran?s oil sector, something strongly supported by the influential American Israel Public Affairs Committee because of the potential threat to Israel if Iran gets nuclear weapons.

That?s a big plus, Ceasar said, in a contest he thinks will be decided by residents of condominium communities that are home to thousands of Jewish retirees.

The Clintons

Deutch was a prominent Hillary Clinton supporter during the 2008 Democratic primary contest. Voters in the 19th District overwhelmingly supported Clinton in the Florida primary.

State Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, another prominent Clintonite, said the Clintons remember their friends.

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton can?t get involved.

?Her husband is fiercely loyal to those who have been supportive of his wife,? Rich said. ?They will have the support of the Clinton political people and President Clinton himself.?

With Democrats holding an overwhelming advantage in the district, the winner of the primary is the favorite to win the election.

Despite what analysts see as Deutch?s advantages, he isn?t guaranteed a victory.

Other possible candidates have support in the Jewish community, and front-runners have been known to falter. It happened with Hillary Clinton -- and with the opponent Deutch himself picked off to make it to the state Senate.

Deutch was seen as an underdog when he announced against Irv Slosberg, a well-known Palm Beach County politician who spent $2.8 million of his own money on the 2006 state Senate campaign.