Scenarios Used for Impact Assessment

To assess climate change effects under adaptation we set up five scenarios: (1) base cropping patterns, (2) regional shifts in cropping patterns, (3) allow both crop pattern shift and trade adaptation, (4) introduce heat-resistant crop varieties, and (5) consider the effects of 1 though 4 simultaneously. We did not consider changes in planting and harvest dates, as the EPIC results did not show favorable adaptations from that source. In Mali, planting schedules are heavily dependent on when the rainy season begins. EPIC simulations under early planting to mitigate the impact of warming, before the beginning of rain, resulted in further yield reduction.

Three additional scenarios were also superimposed on scenario 5: (1) expansion of cropland at the expense of rangeland (extensification), (2) a wider adoption of existing improved cultivars (intensification), and (3) combining exten-sification and intensification strategies.