Did weekly jobless claims rise “unexpectedly”?

posted at 1:51 pm on January 31, 2013 by Ed Morrissey

Rise? Yes. Unexpectedly? Well … that depends on whether one relied on weekly jobless claims data for the first two weeks of the month. The past two reports showed a significant and unexpected drop in the Department of Labor’s measure, but today’s report returns the data series to its 18-month range:

In the week ending January 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 330,000. The 4-week moving average was 352,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 351,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending January 19, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 19 was 3,197,000, an increase of 22,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,175,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,192,250, a decrease of 9,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,202,000.

There were a lot of raised eyebrows over the previous two reports and their “unexpected” drop into the 330K range. Unadjusted figures rose one of the two weeks, for instance, and the adjustments seemed rather sharp. Interestingly, unadjusted claims dropped in this report even while the adjusted number jumped by 38,000. However, the unadjusted figure for all claims (not new ones) in all programs rose in this report by 255,501.

The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid rose sharply last week but remained at a level consistent with moderate hiring.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits leapt 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The increase comes after applications plummeted in the previous two weeks to five-year lows.

The volatility reflects the government’s difficulty adjusting the data to account for layoffs after the holiday shopping season. Job cuts typically spike in the second week in January as retailers dismiss temporary employees hired for the winter holidays. Layoffs then fall in the second half of the month.

The department attempts to adjust for such fluctuations, but the January figures can still be volatile. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, ticked up to 352,000, just above a four-year low.

“Volatility” is probably the best explanation. This isn’t a data series that has low volatility on a week-by-week basis, which is why people rely more on the four-week rolling average. It’s also a bit difficult to use the weekly data as a correlation to overall hiring, although it is useful for softer analysis of job-market conditions.

More directly related to tomorrow’s jobs report, Gallup anticipates a drop in the workforce but no drop in the jobless rate:

The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was 43.7 % for the month of January, a decline from 44.4% in December.

Gallup’s P2P metric is an estimate of the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week. P2P is not seasonally adjusted.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cellphone Jan. 2-29, with more than 27,000 Americans. Gallup does not count adults who are self-employed, working part time, unemployed, or out of the workforce as payroll-employed in the P2P metric.

Because of seasonal fluctuations, year-over-year comparisons are helpful in determining how much of the monthly changes are because of seasonal hiring patterns and how much are the result of growth in permanent full-time positions. January’s P2P measure was nearly identical to the 43.6 measured in January 2012. This year-over-year comparison is an indication that the employment situation has changed little in the past year.

On Friday, the government is scheduled to issue its January jobs report. Analysts forecast that it will show employers added 155,000 jobs, the same as in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7.8 percent for the third straight month.

That’s consistent with the number of people seeking unemployment aid. Applications fluctuated between 360,000 and 390,000 for most of last year. At the same time, employers added an average of 153,000 jobs a month.

I’d guess 135K and 7.8%, with perhaps a tenth-point loss in the civilian population participation rate, bringing us back down to the 31-year low 63.5% we had in August. What do readers believe the jobs number will be? Take the poll:

Only unexpectedness in this is for those low IQers that vote democrat party. Everyone else sees bad economic times under the grand socialist just like every other socialist.

The only way to bring equality and fairness is to drag everyone down to the lowest common denominator and that is what the 0bama regime is doing. It is going to be glorious future komrades, GLORIOUS!!!!!

Unexpected,expected by anyone with a brain that expected to see the word unexpected in these jobs reports.I know I expected to see unexpected.The WH and MSM should get a patent on the word unexpected since they use it for everything that goes bad.

Well if you mean that they’re supporting Obama’s destructive policies, then yes. But that’s not what the left are blaming the GOP for. They’re claiming Republicans slashed spending and that’s why GDP went negative.

This isn’t a sporting event, idiot. It’s not about bragging rights until the next season(election). Obama’s President for 4 more years. Fine. But he needs to deal with the most pressing issue which every poll and survey says is the economy. It’s not taken off the table until 2016 just because the GOP lost the 2012 election.

AND, if that isn’t schadenfredue-y enough for the “anti middle class conservative audience” at HA, yesterday, Allidunce at TH was whining that her boss cut her hours to part-time “only to punish me for supporting healthcare reform” and people have “to stop keeping me posting on the internet because I have to go ‘pound the pavement’ to look for a new job,” which she has been doing for the last month to no avail because “all of the other employers are greedy [email protected], who are only profit-driven and will not offer me anything more than part-time because of Obamacare. How DARE they?!?!?”

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Ed, you should know better than to trust anything that comes out of the SCOAMF administration. From our friend at Zero Hedge:

… just how did the US consumer see their personal income soar as much as it did? Two things: on one hand the government’s generosity, as it was “boosted by lump-sum social security benefit payments.” But more importantly it was “boosted by accelerated and special dividend payments to persons and by accelerated bonus payments and other irregular pay in private wages and salaries in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates.”

In other words, it was all a forward pull in comp in December to avoid the tax hikes from the January 1 Fiscal Cliff.

Sure enough, of the $352 billion increase in personal income, some $268 billion, or 76% was due to Personal Dividend Income which exploded by some 34.3% to $1.05 trillion as companies dividended income like crazy to avoid what they expected would be a huge increase in the dividend income tax.

In other words, look for personal income to plunge in January as all the forward pull effect from the Fiscal Cliff evaporates.

And what is worse, unless personal spending surges to catch up with the early income, Q1 GDP will be ugly to quite ugly.

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Or in simpler terms, EXPECT a lot more UNEXPECTED bad economic news.

This isn’t a sporting event, idiot. It’s not about bragging rights until the next season(election). Obama’s President for 4 more years. Fine. But he needs to deal with the most pressing issue which every poll and survey says is the economy. It’s not taken off the table until 2016 just because the GOP lost the 2012 election.

Doughboy on January 31, 2013 at 2:18 PM

It is a sporting event for these morons. HALib is saying what we all know liberals are thinking now that they’ve won the election: Who cares about the economy now that they’ve won? HALib would be loling and giggling if the economy had contracted by 5% or 10% – it doesn’t matter and isn’t real to him.

It is a sporting event for these morons. HALib is saying what we all know liberals are thinking now that they’ve won the election: Who cares about the economy now that they’ve won? HALib would be loling and giggling if the economy had contracted by 5% or 10% – it doesn’t matter and isn’t real to him.

Doomberg on January 31, 2013 at 2:28 PM

Yep, I’ve seen this kind of foolishness elsewhere in the blogosphere, for sure.

It is a sporting event for these morons. HALib is saying what we all know liberals are thinking now that they’ve won the election: Who cares about the economy now that they’ve won? HALib would be loling and giggling if the economy had contracted by 5% or 10% – it doesn’t matter and isn’t real to him.

Doomberg on January 31, 2013 at 2:28 PM

I realize that. I’m simply trying to wake these people the F up. If Obama continues to preside over a lousy economy, it’s not as if his supporters are somehow exempted from the negative effects just because they voted Democrat. Not unless they’re very wealthy and write 5-figure checks on a regular basis to the party.

My lib friends are quite incredibly blaming the House GOP for the crummy economic news!

KoolAid drinkers.

itsnotaboutme on January 31, 2013 at 1:55 PM

Well of course they are. Didn’t you see that Jay Carney said the very same thing yesterday? They’ve all downloaded the talking points by this point. Nothing new. But let’s talk about the unsavory “friends” you’ve decided to hang out with. ;0

Seriously, and I predicted this just after the election, the economy is only going to get worse. The libs have decided to try and scapegoat the House GOP for every societal ill since Adam and Eve were kicked out of the Garden of Eden but the reality is that this line of attack is already stale.

The House GOP, IMO, made a good strategic choice in kicking the debt ceiling debate until May. Between now and then we have the following:

March 1st. Sequestration kicks in and the DoD gets 50% of billions in cuts that will cause all sorts of discussion. The other 50% comes from domestic agencies. Do you realize that if sequestration occurs for just six months it will take the Navy 8 months to deploy should we need them to do so to Iran or somewhere? This primes the pump for discussion about cutting the entitlement programs that the Dems need to apppease the parasites the keep putting them in office.

March 27th. The end of government spending authorization. This could shut down the government. I think the House GOP should let it happen if between now and then the administration and Congressional Dems refuse to negotiate or do so in bad faith.

April 15th. The Senate has to have the budget passed, which they haven’t done in four years. Again, I think the GOP should stand strong and refuse to pass yet another continuing resolution if entitlement cuts are not a key aspect of the budget that ultimately gets out of committee and to the rat-eared wonder’s desk for signature. Dare the bastard to veto that because some leech on society doesn’t get another year’s worth of unemployment benefits.

May 19th. Debt ceiling reached. If none of the foregoing milestones have been met, let it burn.

The numbers are bogus anyway! They’ve cooked the books all along. Yesterday’s GDP report was classic.(Disclaimer, I am an accountant)
When you intentionally pad the 3rd quarter figures with numbers from October to make the quarter look good because there’s an election pending, you get a flat or negative balance on the 4th quarter because you’ve already counted those beans.
The same holds true for the monthly jobs reports. They continuously pad the numbers to make His Majesty, King Barack II, look good! By the way, he couldn’t look good surrounded by strippers at a “cathouse!”

Well of course they are. Didn’t you see that Jay Carney said the very same thing yesterday?

Happy Nomad on January 31, 2013 at 2:40 PM

Yeah, but I went back and did a little investigating…

Obama: I Built Tha…Um, Er, Ah, No, Republicans Built That!

“Right now, OUR ECONOMY IS GROWING…”

– President Barack Obama, 14 January 2013

“You see that economic growth? I BUILT THAT!”

– President Barack Obama, 14 January 2013

“The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy contracted at an annual rate of -0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. That’s a sharp slowdown from the 3.1 percent growth rate in the July-September quarter. The surprise contraction could raise fears about the economy’s ability to handle tax increases that took effect in January and looming spending cuts.”

– Associated Press, 30 January 2013

“We have seen consistent job growth over almost three years. Home prices are starting to climb back, consumer confidence overall has been rising, consumer spending have been rising, but there is more work to do, and our economy is facing major headwinds, which goes to your point. And that is: Republicans in Congress.”

Jay Carney, White House Spokeskid, 30 January 2013

“You see that economic contraction. I, I, I DIDN’T BUILD THA…UM, ER, AH, NO, REPUBLICANS BUILT THAT!!! That’s the Republicans’ fault because they want dirty air, dirty water, kids with autism to fend for themselves, elderly people to eat catfood, children to have to walk 50 miles to dilapidated schools all so that they can spend government money on tax cuts for hedge fund managers, bankers, CEOs, corporate jet owners, Big Oil, Big Coal, and doctors, who just RIIIIPPPPPP out tonsils with their bare hands and charge $500,000 for an amputation! They don’t believe that everyone should have a fair shot, a fair share. They think that it is unpatriotic to ask people like me to give ‘just a little bit more of the money that we don’t need’ to fund school breakfasts and lunches so that poor children will know what a hot meal feels like in their mouths. So, when you see that contraction, you just remember who built it!”

– President Barack Obama, 30 January 2013

It ONLY took Obama SIXTEEN DAYS to revert back to “THE ROYAL “WE” DIDN’T BUILD THAT!!!” and “IT’SBush’s, the euro’s, the Haitian earthquake’s, the Japanese tsunami’s, ATM/airport kiosk/automaton’s, THE REPUBLICANS’ FAULT!!!”

I see that everyone did a really good job chiming in after Chump left on the other thread on this that issue, too many facts and no ability to emotionalize the subject is definitely the way to keep our rights secured. Well in the war of words anyway;)

Maybe online news sites have gone all Conservative all of a sudden and are lying to help out the GOP, or there really are plants, stores, and businesses closing down all over the place at an alarming rate, not to mention the layoffs.

Maybe online news sites have gone all Conservative all of a sudden and are lying to help out the GOP, or there really are plants, stores, and businesses closing down all over the place at an alarming rate, not to mention the layoffs.

Dr. ZhivBlago on January 31, 2013 at 4:05 PM

That’s right HotLump! It’s those evil conservative reporters that can’t get over Obama winning!

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This answers the question does ANYONE read anything but the few comments just before they comment. :)

Please scroll back up to

PolAgnostic on January 31, 2013 at 2:26 PM

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Zero Hedge had their analysis up by 8:55 AM and John Carney on CNBC had plagiarized by 11:00 AM.

There is enough data coming out to suggest WHY the SCOAMF and his ilk are so desperately pushing every liberal agenda item RIGHT NOW!

Take the economic data pointing to a recession, add in the “this path is unsustainable” market data (i.e. collapsing volume in shares traded), and sprinkle with the Fed Meeting minutes where they are discussing shutting down ALL QE by the end of 2013 …

.. voila, the liberals have at most three months before even their L.I.V.’s can recognize things have gone from bad to much worse.

Maybe online news sites have gone all Conservative all of a sudden and are lying to help out the GOP, or there really are plants, stores, and businesses closing down all over the place at an alarming rate, not to mention the layoffs.

Dr. ZhivBlago on January 31, 2013 at 4:05 PM

I see more and more vacant stores and office/manufacturing space every day.

Much of the increase was probably seasonal, and the weekly number had dropped to 330K the last couple of weeks, so an increase was in order. Anyway, the real number to watch is the 4-week average, and that is hovering just above 350K, continuing the downtrend that was interrupted when Sandy hit … it is slowly but surely improving, and we have a feeling private sector job growth will be good tomorrow … the public sector, on the other hand, is another story …