Efficient responses to climate change require accurate estimates of both aggregate damages and where and to whom they occur. While specific case studies and simulations have suggested that climate change disproportionately affects the poor, large-scale direct evidence of the magnitude and origins of this disparity is lacking. Similarly, evidence on aggregate damages, which is a […]

Using a dataset of 15 million UK job adverts from a recruitment website, we construct new economic statistics measuring labour market demand. These data are ‘naturally occurring’, having originally been posted online by firms. They offer information on two dimensions of vacancies—region and occupation—that firm-based surveys do not usually, and cannot easily, collect. These data […]

Barber and Odean study the relationship between trading activity and returns. They find that households who trade more have a lower net return than other households. They argue that these results cannot emerge from a model with rational traders and instead attribute these findings to overconfidence. In contrast, we find that household financial choices generated […]

Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide “special deals” for favored private firms. We argue that China’s extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. Competition between local governments limits the […]

We introduce a computationally tractable dynamic equilibrium model of the automobile market where new and used cars of multiple types (e.g. makes/models) are traded by heterogeneous consumers. Prices and quantities are determined endogenously to equate supply and demand for all car types and vintages, along with the ages at which cars are scrapped. The model […]

Mixed feelings on estimated wholesales for November 2014.

Mixed feelings on estimated wholesales for November 2014. Wholesales of durable goods increased, whereas nondurable goods decreased its level compared to the same statistics one year ago. Estimated November 2014 sales for wholesalers were U$452.2 billion. Wholesales went up by 2.4% compared to the same month of 2013. November sales of durable goods increased 6.3% when compared to the same month 2013. Sales of non-durable goods went down by an almost imperceptible 0.8% (there are not enough data to conclude change was different than zero).

Wholesale trader’s statistics give a hint on what consumption is being driven by. In spite of data being limited by a short timeframe, what might be conclusive is that people may be investing for the long term rather than consuming for the short term. It is important to note that trends on sales (therefore on consumption) will depend on what the Federal Reserve do in monetary policy regards in 2015. Besides, good numbers on employment levels also stimulates the economic perspectives for both producers and wholesale traders.

In terms of the ratio between inventory and sales, the graph below depicts how low estimated sales were for Machinery, Hardware and even Automotive goods for November 2014. On the other hand Computer Equipment account shows strong sales compare to what the industry has on stock. Depending on actual December sales’ levels, this data may point out to some future either increases or decreases in prices of such goods. The greater the stock, the greater the chance for lower price in the near future.

On the other hand, inventories of wholesale traders –excluding manufacturers- were $547.2 billion. November inventories of durable goods were 8.9 percent up compared to 2013. Inventories of non-durable goods increased 4.4 percent compared to the same month 2013. Durable goods category comprises goods such as Automobiles, furniture, professional equipment and machinery among others. Non-durable goods category comprises groceries, paper, petroleum, and apparel among others.