Even as Republicans pour more ground forces into North Carolina, a top GOP strategist has warned that the “Trump Factor” could be costly for GOP candidates this fall.

Paul Shumaker, whose clients include U.S. Sen. Richard Burr and U.S. Rep. Robert Pittenger, told Pittenger in a private memo that 20 percent of N.C. Republicans view Donald Trump unfavorably – and many of them could stay home.

“If (that) happens, this will have a potential negative impact of 3 to 6 percentage points for all GOP candidates,” Shumaker said in the memo obtained by the Observer.

Shumaker’s warning came days before the Republican National Committee announced Friday that it’s sending 392 new field operatives to battleground states. Sources say more than 100 will come to North Carolina.

[…]Polls show Trump virtually tied with Democrat Hillary Clinton. Both are unpopular. A recent Emerson College poll showed 55.5 percent of N.C. voters view Clinton unfavorably while 57.4 percent have a negative impression of Trump.

In his Aug. 28 memo to Pittenger, Shumaker said Trump has failed to solidify support among fellow Republicans.

“On average, 20 percent of registered Republicans remain unfavorable to Trump, with these unfavorable numbers rising in the urban and suburban centers of which most of the conservative parts of the 9th district is comprised of,” he wrote, adding that those voters are likely to vote for a third-party candidate or stay home.

He’s talking about the SAME crowd that went for Obama, Kay Hagan AND Pat McCrory in 2008. MORE:

Shumaker’s estimate that anti-Trump Republicans could cost GOP candidates up to 6 percentage points at the polls is consistent with other estimates. Vox puts the electoral cost at 4.6 points. It calls that “the Trump Tax.”

Burr supports Trump, but has appeared to distance himself in some ways and rarely appeared with the candidate in North Carolina. He has a 2.6-point lead over Democrat Deborah Ross in the latest polling average from Real Clear Politics.

This is further evidence that the GOPe is laying the foundation to BLAME TRUMP for their poor showing at the polls. Never mind that Richard Burr has been AWOL on the ObamaCare fight, the fight against amnesty for illegals, has voted FOR child care subsidies and environmental regulations, and has championed increased governmental eavesdropping on the populace. (Oh, and refusing to block insider trading in Congress.) *His troubles are ALL Trump’s fault.* (SMDH) MORE:

The GOP divisions were evident at the Republican National Convention, where delegates from North Carolina and elsewhere were split over their nominee. And they were reflected in a tweet Friday from conservative John Hood, president of the Pope Foundation.

HILLARY CLINTON IS DISTRUSTED BECAUSE SHE IS DISHONEST. DONALD TRUMP IS DESPISED BECAUSE HE IS DESPICABLE. NO NEED TO OVERTHINK THIS.Tweet from John Hood, president of the Pope Foundation

“Hillary Clinton is distrusted because she is dishonest,” he tweeted. “Donald Trump is despised because he is despicable. No need to overthink this.”

*Ah, more wisdom from the Kim Kardashian — famous for no reason — of North Carolina politics.* Somebody’s worried about the longevity of their relevance in the Trump era. MORE:

In an interview Friday, Shumaker said he expects what he calls “Romney Republicans” to come around for the nominee. Former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney called Trump “a fraud” and a “phony.”

“Donald Trump has an easier pathway to victory in North Carolina than Hillary Clinton does,” Shumaker said. “The only thing he has to do is unite the base.”

In his memo, Shumaker said candidates such as Pittenger should compensate for any potential falloff in the GOP vote.

“The Pittenger for Congress campaign must budget additional dollars for a conservative voter turnout operation (most likely a call center), something a congressional campaign normally does not do in a Presidential election cycle,” he wrote.

O-Kay. Putting the scare out there to bump up the consulting fee. *Smooooooooth.* Surely, ol’ Bob’s troubles have noooooothing to do with all that FBI and IRS scrutiny.

15 thoughts on “Shumaker: ‘Trump Factor’ harmful down the ballot for NCGOPers”

I will be voting Trump, but at this point in time I can’t vote for Burr or Foxx. I can’t vote for any of my city/county candidates. Other than mcCory and Forrest who knows who else is running. I will vote for Edmundson. It won’t be Trumps fault if these people lose, it will be their records and lack of party support.

The GOPe is the adult version of Generation Snowflake — entitled, petulant, weak and blame everyone else for their shortcomings/failures. It turns my stomach to read this posting and the dripping disdain these jerks have for us. And the Trump campaign has exposed each and every one of these disgusting hacks for the lying globalists that they are. I will NOT vote for Obama enabler Burr. McCrory will get my vote but ONLY because of HB2. Do not forget to vote for AG Buck Newton. And the most important vote of all — Americans first Donald J Trump!!! Trump 2016

The Polar Bears win either way in the Senate race. Our hard core environmental movement long ago paid big bucks to buy Paul Shumaker, and also Dee Stewart, and that buys us their candidates. We have shored that up with one of our hard core environmentalist heavy hitters putting big money directly into Burr’s campaign. Whether Burr or the Democrat win this Senate seat, President Obama’s green energy policies will be supported by the winner. We win either way, suckers!

Ditto to LPKs comment. The fracture within the Republican Party has finally come to a head. We loyal party activists have had to hold our nose for the weak kneed American apologists like Dole, McCain, Romney and the now disgraced Bushes for reneging on their party unity expected for them, but not for the people’s choice? Amazing. Unbelieveable too that they prefer Hillary to our AMERICA FIRST PATRIOT, Donald Trump.

Burr is a huge embarrassment who has destroyed the term “conservative”. He’s no better than a water carrier for the criminal family from Arkansas. As for John Hood, wow. What a drop from his former conservative past, or was he another chameleon, to gain prestige at the expense of real conservative values?

Trump is our only hope for a restoration of HONEST, PRACTICAL, MORE EFFICIENT government that actually works for ALL AMERICANS!
Our vote is unabashedly FOR TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT!
No one else has the EXPERIENCE to do what needs to be done. Make AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!!

Shumaker is himself the problem. If he and Mitch McConnell had not talked Obama enabler Tricky Dick Burr out of retirement plans, then we would have a much stronger GOP candidate, probably Mark Meadows, coasting to victory.

Instead we have a reprehensible prostitute to the special interests, Burr, who is so bad that many conservatives are just unable to hold their noses to vote for him.

Burr is a liberal with a miserable 42% rating on the respected Heritage Action scorecard. Conservatives have no one to vote for in the US Senate race because both parties have nominated liberals. The open borders pizza delivery man the Libertarians have put up is not even worthwhile as a protest vote. Unless something dramatically changes, my ballot will be blank in this race.

Shumaker is just trying to make lame excuses for his own massive failings in this race.

John Hood has never understood practical politics when he came down from his ivory tower intellectual world and has come up with lots of nutty ideas that would harm conservatives over the years like ending runoff primaries and ”non-partisan” redistricting (ask California or Arizona how ”nonpartisan” that turned out to be!). Trump was not among my top choices for president, but Hood was backing Marco ”Gang of 8” Rubio who is a lot more despicable than Trump ever thought about being.

To any thinking conservative, Trump is the lesser of two evils and we need to vote for him. I don’t fully trust him, but Hillary is the devil incarnate. Likewise, McCrory has shown us just enough on HB2 to get our votes in spite of other issues where he has been disappointing.

Reminds me of the recent ads where the bank guard, during a hold-up, rejects the notion of protecting the bank, because ‘ I just report, I don’t do anything about it’. People like Shumaker continue cycle after cycle to bring bad news, but never contribute to fix it. When you have no message with a course of action, someone is going to make it up for you, and that is what the Dems are doing.

I tend to disagree with Mr Shumaker in that “the only thing he has to do is unite the base,” Grassroots, IMO, is united. Mr Shumaker, that is the base. It is the upper fringe that represents the weakness. I bet you know many of them. If at heart Americans loose the presidential election it will not be the fault of the base.

On the other hand, if he were talking about Burr, he WOULD certainly need to unify the base, a tougher task for Burr than it is for Trump. And not sure about this with respect to Trump, but there are certain County leaders who won’t lift a finger for Burr. There’s a reason why Burr’s primary vote percentage far underperformed McCrory’s vote percentage back in March.

There are 2 great fears this election year for conservatives. One is that there will be a lot of people who come out to vote for president and skip everything else on the ballot. The other is that there are a number of folks who cannot stand any of the presidential candidates, so they will not vote at all. The first group needs to be convinced to finish their ballot. The second group, if they cannot bring themselves to vote for Trump, must be convinced to vote for the down-ballot races. Regardless of your own view on the presidential election, we need to do everything we can to get both groups of voters to support the conservative down-ballot candidates, like judges and Council of State.

As for those that can’t stand either presidential candidate so bad as to even consider not voting, I have got to believe that they have no children or grand children and they have no respect for those that do.
If Trump wins, at heart Americans have a fighting chance. If she it wins the jig is up. Today people in Venezuela are eating their pets because they let people like she it take over their goverment.

Trump is a con man who has used crony politicking to keep his empire afloat. He’s bought favors from “establishment” politicians like Christie and Clinton for decades. He was a strong supporter of Progressives for decades. He’s conning some Republicans today, but not me. I won’t vote for him.

Burr has voted against personal liberty and for centralized big government every chance he gets. He is the antithesis of a Conservative. He won’t get my vote.

McCrory didn’t stop the I-77 50 year guaranteed for profit toll scheme that Thom Tills foisted on the NC taxpayers. McCrory also used taxpayer dollars to campaign for that $2,000,000,000 bond scam. He won’t get my vote.

The state legislators were duped into voting for that stupid Alec authored HB2 bill without reading it because they were told the completely unenforceable “bathroom” portion of it would be THE wedge issue that would rally the evangelical base this election year. A few people got suckered into it, but the polls have shown it’s an albatross around the neck of McCrory and the NCGOP. They all deserve to be sent packing for being gullible enough to fall for such a stupid political stunt.

I don’t see anyone with an R beside their name this year who earned my vote. None of them.

So you think the gender deniers should have priority over normal people? A boy who thinks he is a girl is as nutty as a boy who thinks he is Napolean. The Charlotte Observer was loony left when it said editorially that schoolgirls would just have to get used to seeing penises in their showers. That is just sick!

The legislature did the right thing on bathroom and locker room privacy and so did the governor (except for watering it down).