Tuesday, 26 October 2010

Fibonacci analysis is crucial to the modern trader and almost all traders do use retracements and extensions as part of their strategy. Over the years they have proven to be exceptionally accurate at predicting market movements and this can help traders devise strategies to make more profit. One of the best ways to make profit whilst trading is by predicting price breakouts. With Fibonacci retracements and extensions breakouts can be accurately predicated and when a trader uses an additional indicator to provide supplementary evidence they can be certain when a breakout will occur.

Fibonacci retracements and extensions rely on a trader accurately choosing the low and high points of a trend. Once this is done the Fibonacci analysis can be applied to a candlestick chart and a number of key Fibonacci ratios will be presented on the candlestick chart as horizontal lines. The lines help project points of resistance and support and they can also be used to suggest when a breakout is likely to occur. The two key ratios are 38% and 62% and often when a security is trading it can rebound back and forth between these two ratios.

If this is happening a lot and the market looks congested between these two points then the retracements are suggesting that a price breakout is imminent. When a price breakout occurs the price of a security will often move dramatically outside of the 38% and 62% ratios and the market will change significantly. The presence of price congestion in between these two lines created by the Fibonacci retracement suggests the market price will move and this is the point at which a trader should act.

A trader could simply rely on the analysis provided by the Fibonacci retracement and if this is the case it would be wise to place a pending buy and sell either side of the current price with the appropriate stop losses. However the Fibonacci analysis is best used in conjunction with another indicator to confirm if the breakout is definitely going to happen. Using the evidence of two indicators is a much more reliable strategy because if the two suggest a breakout is likely then it will probably happen but if they contradict each other a trader should stay out of the market.

Bollinger bands are excellent at predicting breakouts and when they begin to contract, this is a signal a price breakout will occur. This behavior is known as the Bollinger squeeze and if a trader correctly identifies it whilst also noticing congestion in the Fibonacci retracement, they can be fairly certain the breakout is imminent. By combining the Fibonacci retracement analysis to the Bollinger band analysis, a trader can confidently enter or exit the market based on the evidence provided. If the correct move is made a trader could make plenty of profit or prevent themselves from losing money during a breakout. Similarly, this strategy can be applied to Fibonacci extensions because the same principles are used to determine the future market movement.