Analysis: Gordon's departure - All the talk is not if, but when to strike

Saturday 26 July 2008 00:24 BST

Labour MPs have one question for Gordon Brown: 'Why should you remain the leader?' He has barely a month to answer it convincingly, otherwise he could be thrown out.

That, in brutal terms, is the Prime Minister's position today as he heads for a holiday unlikely to bring him respite from the crisis engulfing his leadership.

From Cabinet ministers to lowly backbenchers, it was clear yesterday that the loss of Glasgow East has tipped the balance against Mr Brown. He faces a battle for survival.

Depressed: Gordon shows the strain

Depressed: Gordon shows the strain

Most MPs can't quite believe they are discussing the removal of arguably one of the most significant politicians of the modern age. Can New Labour really be ready to turn on the architect of its electoral success?

Yet it is almost impossible to find anyone who believes Mr Brown can lead them into the next election, such is the despair gripping the party. All talk now is not if, but when an attempt is made to unseat him.

Glasgow East will be seen as the final piece in a jigsaw which reveals a terrifying image of electoral annihilation at the next General Election.

In scarcely three months Labour has been routed in the London mayoral poll and at by-elections in Crewe and Nantwich, Henley and now Glasgow East.

'We have now been comprehensively rejected in all those areas, and every Labour MP will see in one of them his own constituency, with ominous implications,' said a former minister. That sense of impending doom is in the mind of every MP.

Three scenarios for removing Mr Brown are being discussed: persuading him to go voluntarily, sending in a delegation of Cabinet ministers to urge him to quit, or coordinated resignations by junior ministers as a public show of no confidence.

For most the best solution would be if Mr Brown reached his own conclusions about the parlous state of his leadership and offered to stand down in the interests of the party. But those who know him have no expectations that he will go quietly.

Ready to strike? Ministers are worried that the next election may be a disaster if Gordon stays

Ready to strike? Ministers are worried that the next election may be a disaster if Gordon stays

Why should he meekly stand aside from a post he has striven so long to hold, and on the say-so of politicians he suspects are rattled by a momentary economic downturn?

Which is why most MPs are looking to senior figures to act on their behalf. The 'men in grey suits' scenario would see key members of the Cabinet go to Mr Brown to urge him to quit in the interests of the party.

Jack Straw and Geoff Hoon are the two names that come up as most likely to take a lead. Mr Straw is effectively the most senior minister after Mr Brown and is talked of as a possible deputy premier.

Crucially, he was Mr Brown's leadership campaign manager. Mr Hoon for his part is the chief whip and therefore ideally placed to tell the Prime Minister whether he can continue to command the loyalty of the back benches.

If Mr Brown refused to stand aside, the suggestion goes, they would threaten to resign, precipitating a crisis in what would amount to a devastating vote of no confidence in the Premier. But he would in all likelihood call their bluff and leave them little choice but to walk out.

The third scenario is for a group of junior ministers to take matters into their own hands by resigning suddenly as a way of putting pressure on the Cabinet to act. The Mail understands that at least three have discussed the plan and say they are prepared to intervene if nothing happens this autumn.

Some say Mr Brown should be allowed to get through Labour Conference at the end of September - where his loyalists hope he can deliver the speech of a lifetime and answer the question about his fitness to lead.

But the evidence is that views are hardening around a move against him in early September.

Therein lies the conundrum facing every MP. If they get rid of Mr Brown, who takes over? It is not good enough to say, as many do, that anyone would be better, or that a saviour will emerge. A bitter contest pitting Brownites against Blairites, young against old could leave the party bitterly divided and further weakened.

Among the names most commonly heard as front runners appear to be Foreign Secretary David Miliband, for those who want to jump to the next generation, and Health Secretary Alan Johnson, for those who want a safe pair of hands. What is increasingly agreed is that whoever was to take over would have to call an immediate election to secure the mandate from the voters Mr Brown failed to seek for himself when he ducked an election last year.

In private he is showing surprising resilience. He has taken Glasgow East 'on the chin' and is not surprised by the talk about his future. But he remains convinced that Labour's problems are a direct result of global economic uncertainty, and not of his doing.

Above all, he wonders why those criticising his leadership cannot come up with an obvious alternative. In this he is right: no one has a credible solution to the crisis facing Labour.

But unless the Prime Minister finds the answer to that basic question about why he should be leader, uncertainty about who will follow him might not be enough to save him.