Philly Fed Forecasters See Better Job Market

Forecasters have downgraded modestly their outlook for growth and upgraded their job market outlook, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, released Friday.

The long-running survey is released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. In the second-quarter poll, participants continue to expect growth to pick up and unemployment to fall. Views are mixed relative to the first-quarter survey.

In the survey, the forecasters see the U.S. growing by 1.8% in the second quarter, by 2.3% in the third quarter, and by 2.7% in the final three months of the year.

The respondents see what is now a 7.6% unemployment rate trailing down to 7.4% in the final three months of the year. Average monthly job growth in the second quarter is seen at 179,000, with third-quarter activity at a 142,700 average monthly gain, and 173,000 average monthly gain in the fourth quarter.

On an annual basis, the forecasters expect the economy to grow 2% this year, and by 2.8% next year, and by 3% in 2015. Unemployment will average 7.6% this year, 7.1% in 2014, and 6.6% in 2015.

Survey respondents don’t see inflation breaking away from the Fed’s 2% target. The average headline consumer price index for this year is seen at 1.9%, and 2.1% next year. The personal consumption expenditures price index is seen averaging 1.5% this year and 1.9% in 2014.

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