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vnunet.com analysis: China's 3G conundrum

Network operators are ready to launch WCDMA services, but the Chinese
government wants to roll out its home-grown TD-SCDMA first

High stakes: China will have more than 740 million mobile phone users by 2010

China's 400 million mobile phone users are not expected to gain access to 3G
services before the fourth quarter of this year, according to a US telecoms
researcher.

The nation's 3G introduction is eagerly anticipated as it is
widely expected to generate $12bn in spending on
equipment.

China will have more than 740 million mobile phone users by 2010,
Pyramid Research
predicts, and some analysts suggest that China's mobile market could be worth as
much as $300bn by 2015.

China's network operators are ready to launch 3G services with the
WCDMA
standard today, but the government hopes to roll out its new home-grown
TD-SCDMA
standard first, before foreign-developed technologies like WCDMA are
introduced.

According to the
TD-SCDMA
Forum and other sources, the Chinese government has actually
dictated
a halt to WCDMA development until TD-SCDMA is ready to start.

This is despite the fact that China has
pledged
not to interfere in the 3G standards selection by operators. Even with the
government's aid, analysts expect TD-SCDMA to have difficulty gaining a
substantial share of the market.

TD-SCDMA will probably go into service in the fourth quarter of this year,
and other 3G standards, like WCDMA, will follow, according to Yiru Zhong of
Pyramid Research.

Zhong's comments at a TD-SCDMA promotional event in Beijing last week were
reported by Nikkei Business
Press.