New York

April 13, 2016

PPP's new New York poll finds that Chuck Schumer is one of the most popular Senators in the country. 53% of voters approve of him to only 25% who disapprove- it is very unusual for us these days to find anyone with an approval rating over 5o%. In addition to being generally popular with Democrats (65/13), Schumer also has a much higher than normal level of crossover popularity with Republicans at 32% approval and just 48% disapproval. Schumer leads Wendy Long 55-23 in a hypothetical match for reelection this fall. New York generally has one of the country's most popular Senate delegations as Kirsten Gillibrand is well liked by voters in the state as well, with a 47/21 approval spread.

Andrew Cuomo is narrowly popular with voters in the state, with 43% approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He starts out with a 49/26 lead over GOP Congressman Chris Gibson in their hypothetical 2018 match up. Part of that is a reflection of how little known Gibson is- 80% of voters in the state say they have no opinion about him one way or another. Cuomo also leads a hypothetical primary challenge against Attorney General Eric Schneiderman 49-22, although people who want to see Schneiderman run might take in heart in Cuomo being under 50% even though the AG has just 43% name recognition at this point. Finally we find that voters generally trust Cuomo over Bill de Blasio when the two clash, 40/21, including a 39/35 advantage for Cuomo even in New York City.

We checked in on how New Yorkers are feeling these days about some of the state's major politicians of the past. Rudy Giuliani (46/35) and Michael Bloomberg (43/31) are both still seen pretty favorably statewide while attitudes toward George Pataki (35/35) are split and Eliot Spitzer (22/54) continues to be a very unpopular figure. It's worth noting that in New York City itself voters have a much more positive opinion of their last Mayor (53/29 for Bloomberg) than their second to last Mayor (34/47 for Giuliani).

We also tested a variety of issues. Donald Trump recently said women who receive abortions should be punished, but only 5% of New Yorkers agree with that sentiment to 84% who disagree. Even among Republicans just 9% agree with Trump on that one to 71% who don't.

Obamacare is popular in New York, with 50% of voters supporting it to 30% who disapprove. 88% of voters- including 92% of Democrats, 84% of independents, and 81% of Republicans- support background checks on all gun purchases to only 6% who are opposed to them. 77% of voters- including 91% of Democrats, 68% of independents, and 55% of Republicans- support the EPA Clean Power Plan to only 18% opposed to that.

Hamilton has been all the rage in New York City over the last year, but Alexander Hamilton's newfound popularity still isn't enough to rank him as the state's favorite founding father. Benjamin Franklin wins out on that front with 30% to 23% for George Washington, 17% for Thomas Jefferson, 9% for Hamilton, 9% for John Adams, and 2% for poor James Madison who the play makes look like a nitwit. There's a partisan divide on this question with Democrats preferring Franklin to Washington 34/18, while Republicans take Washington over Franklin 34/20.

Hamilton may not be New York's favorite founding father, but he is seen in a pretty positive light with 48% of voters having a favorable opinion of him to 10% with a negative one. He's in much better standing with the electorate than nemesis Aaron Burr, who has just a 13% favorability rating to 33% of voters with an unfavorable view of him. In a hypothetical Gubernatorial contest between Hamilton and Burr, Hamilton takes 48% to 6% for Burr, with 38% saying 'neither because they're both dead.' We also asked some questions about the play itself. Overall 45% of New Yorkers say they're interested in seeing it to 31% who aren't. There's an interest party divide with Democrats saying 53/28 they'd like to see it, but Republicans saying 35/38 they're uninterested. It's a similar split when it comes to the issue of George Washington being portrayed by a black actor. Overall voters are fine with it 49/28, but Democrats approve 61/20 while Republicans disapprove 31/42.

As long as we're on the issue of history, we asked voters who their favorite President from New York is and it came up all Roosevelts. Franklin leads the way with 33% to 31% for Teddy, followed by Martin Van Buren and Millard Fillmore at 5%, Grover Cleveland at 4%, and Chester Arthur at 3%. Predictably Democrats take Franklin over Teddy 42/25, while Republicans take Teddy over Franklin 48/18. Neither President is the favorite Roosevelt of New Yorkers though- on that front Eleanor with 35% to 26% for Uncle Teddy and 22% for husband Franklin.

We asked New Yorkers about their favorite and least favorite boroughs of New York City. Manhattan wins favorite borough honors with 37% to 22% for Brooklyn, 11% for Queens, 7% for the Bronx, and 5% for Staten Island. The Bronx wins least favorite with 29% to 21% for Staten Island, 11% for Brooklyn, 7% for Manhattan, and 5% for Queens. There's partisan agreement on the supremacy of Manhattan but there's division when it comes to the least favorite- Republicans pick the Bronx over Staten Island 33/12, while Democrats take Staten Island 28/26. On the topic of Staten Island, 24% of New Yorkers support ceding it to New Jersey while 43% want to keep it and 34% aren't sure.

April 12, 2016

PPP's new New York poll finds Donald Trump heading for a dominant victory in his home state, where he gets 51% to 25% for John Kasich and 20% for Ted Cruz.

There had been some thought Cruz might have momentum after his big win in Wisconsin last week, but New Yorkers hate him. Even among Republicans just 35% see him favorably to 50% with an unfavorable opinion. Kasich has a narrowly positive favorability at 41/38, but the only candidate GOP voters in the state really like is Trump at 65/29.

One thing ensuring a big win for Trump in New York next week is how divided his opposition is, and that dynamic presents itself in every way we measure it. Voters are closely split on their second choice, with 24% saying it's Cruz and 23% saying it's Kasich. If voters had to choose between Kasich and Cruz, Kasich wins narrowly 45/39. In head to head match ups with Trump, Kasich trails by 34 at 63/29 and Cruz trails by 35 at 60/25. There's nothing on any of these fronts to help anti-Trump voters figure out what the best vehicle for them is.

In most states that have voted recently there have been clear indications beyond the horse race question that Trump was likely to do worse on Election Day than his pre-election poll standing, but not in New York. Beyond having the highest favorability of the candidates and dominating both Cruz and Kasich in head to head match ups, Trump also has by far and away the most committed base of support. 80% of his voters say they'll definitely support him, compared to only 56% for Cruz and 48% for Kasich who say that.

Trump's winning every key group in New York. He leads Cruz 52/35 among 'very conservative' voters (Kasich gets 7%,) and Kasich 51/37 among moderates (Cruz gets 10%). Trump also leads with 55% among men, 54% with seniors, 50% among younger voters, and 46% among women. Regionally Trump's greatest dominance comes in the New York City suburbs where he gets 64% to 21% for Kasich, and 11% for Cruz. He also has a majority in the city itself at 52% to 37% for Kasich, and 9% for Cruz. The race is closer upstate but Trump still has the upper hand with 44% to 27% for Cruz, and 24% for Kasich. All those results bode pretty well for Trump winning the vast majority of the state's Congressional Districts.

Perhaps if someone wants to break away from the pack they can attack Hamilton for casting George Washington with a black actor. Only 27% of Republican primary voters find that acceptable, to 45% who disapprove of it.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton's leading with 51% to 40% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton benefits from more committed support than Sanders- 88% of her voters say they'll definitely cast their ballots for her, compared to 71% of Sanders backers who say the same. All the normal splits present themselves in New York. Clinton is dominant with women (57/34), but trails slightly with men (47/44). The race is close among white voters- a 47/43 Clinton lead- while she has much more emphatic advantages with Hispanics (66/28) and African Americans (61/32). Sanders is ahead with younger voters (56/40), but Clinton's up by even more with seniors (63/27). Clinton's lead is widest in New York City (55/38), followed by the suburbs (51/40), and the race is effectively tied upstate (47/44).

New York is solidly blue for the general election no matter who the candidates are. Donald Trump is hated in his home state, with a 30/65 favorability rating. He trails Clinton by 20 (55/35) and Sanders by 25 (58/33). Cruz is even worse off with just 18% of New Yorkers seeing him positively to 69% with a negative opinion. He does the worst against the Democratic candidates, trailing Clinton by 26 points at 56/30 and Sanders by 32 points at 59/27. As is the case everywhere Kasich is the best hope for Republicans in New York, but he still trails Clinton by 14 at 50/36, and Sanders by 19 at 54/35.

September 08, 2013

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's look at the
New York City mayoral race finds Bill de Blasio on the cusp of winning the
Democratic nomination outright Tuesday. He's polling at 38% to 19% for William
Thompson, 13% for Christine Quinn, 9% for Anthony Weiner, and 5% for John Liu
with minor candidates combining for 7% of the vote and 10% still undecided.

If undecided voters broke in proportion to their current level of support-
of course no guarantee- de Blasio would win with 42% to 21% for Thompson. Even
if de Blasio falls short of 40% Tuesday though he's still in very strong
position for a potential runoff, leading Thompson 53/33 and Quinn 67/21 in
hypothetical match ups.

PPP's look at the New York City mayoral race finds Bill de Blasio on the cusp of winning the Democratic nomination outright Tuesday. He's polling at 38% to 19% for William Thompson, 13% for Christine Quinn, 9% for Anthony Weiner, and 5% for John Liu with minor candidates combining for 7% of the vote and 10% still undecided.

If undecided voters broke in proportion to their current level of support- of course no guarantee- de Blasio would win with 42% to 21% for Thompson. Even if de Blasio falls short of 40% Tuesday though he's still in very strong position for a potential runoff, leading Thompson 53/33 and Quinn 67/21 in hypothetical match ups.

De Blasio's in a strong position for Tuesday because he is popular with every segment of the electorate. His overall favorability is 62/18, and he leads with men and women, Hispanics, whites, African American, and Asians, young voters and older voters, voters in every borough, and liberals, moderates, and conservatives alike.

Thompson is also very popular with favorability numbers almost as strong as de Blasio's at 57/18. The problem for him is that among voters who like both Thompson and de Blasio, de Blasio has a 53/22 advantage. The other major contenders are extremely unpopular with Quinn sporting a 34/48 favorability rating and Weiner at 20/66.

July 09, 2013

New
Public Policy Polling surveys in 7 Congressional Districts across the country
find that key Republicans could be in trouble if the House doesn’t pass
immigration reform this year.

The
polls show two things:

Republican and Independent
voters want Congress to pass a solution to our country’s broken
immigration system

Many are less likely to
support Republicans if the House fails to pass immigration reform this
summer

Voters
in CA-10 (Jeff Denham), CA-21 (David Valadao), CA-31 (Gary Miller), CO-6 (Mike
Coffman), MN-2 (John Kline), NV-3 (Joe Heck), and NY-11 (Mike Grimm) all say
they would be less likely to vote for their Congressman next year if he opposes
immigration reform. Voters in those districts also say they will be inclined to
punish the Republican Party more broadly if the House GOP does not allow
immigration reform to move forward.

The
reason voters would hold it against their officials if immigration reform does
not pass is that there’s overwhelming support for it in each of these highly
competitive districts. Anywhere from 61 to 69% support the proposal the Senate
passed last month. There’s also a sense of urgency on the issue with 75 to 78%
of voters in each district saying they think it’s important the US fix its
immigration system this year.

April 20, 2012

Raleigh, N.C. – The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR. 57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively. Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities: Oakland, CA (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).

The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR. 57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively. Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities, and both are in California: Oakland (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40). In February, PPP found California to be the least popular state in the union. It does have the 11th most popular city, though: San Francisco (48-29).

February 21, 2012

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states. Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27). Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are. Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

September 12, 2011

Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2017

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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