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Today’s bracket features a rare procedural change in seeding. Because the Big East has Villanova and Xavier on the one line and the Big East plays a double round robin schedule, no other Big East schools can be in their 4-team pod. With Michigan’s win over Ohio State prompting a move for the Wolverines down to the seven line, Seton Hall moved into an eight, where Creighton already resided. That means Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall all go to different regions to avoid playing each other. Nine seed Providence then had to drop to a ten to avoid either a first round rematch against Creighton or Seton Hall or a second round battle with Villanova or Xavier. This generously gives true ten Florida a bump to the nine line.

A lot of teams are creeping towards lock status. Keep in mind, how many wins a team needs to become a lock isn’t just based on their current resume, but the potential bad losses and good wins that remain on their future schedule. So a team like Rhode Island might need to win more games than Seton Hall to lock a bid since Seton Hall has a much more difficult remaining schedule. With that in mind, the bubble has now trimmed itself and we have five distinct categories of teams: Tourney Bound, Looking Solid, Truly Bubbly, and Longshots.

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

Kansas completed another big comeback against West Virginia, Texas picked up a huge road win at Oklahoma, Kansas State beat Iowa State, Baylor beat league leader Texas Tech, and TCU defeated Oklahoma State at home. All told, it was a great day for Big XII bubble teams (giving the conference eight tournament teams), and also gives the league a new number one seed – Kansas.

The Five Teams Just Out of the Field:

LSU has a whopping seven Quadrant 1 wins, but a poor RPI and 11 losses. Washington has four Quadrant 1 wins, including at Kansas, but they have really bad predictive-based metrics for a tournament contender (averaging about 110th in the country). Marquette has three road wins against RPI top 40 foes, but their 15-11 record leaves a bit to be desired. Utah has a decent collection of wins and a solid record, but they were destroyed by UNLV early in the season and that could be a differentiator. And Georgia has a great collection of wins, but still has three bad losses to keep them just out of the field.

A lot of teams are creeping towards lock status. Keep in mind, how many wins a team needs to become a lock isn’t just based on their current resume, but the potential bad losses and good wins that remain on their future schedule. So a team like Cincinnati might need to win more games than Providence to lock a bid since Providence has a much more difficult remaining schedule. With that in mind, the bubble has now trimmed itself and we have four distinct categories of teams: Tourney Bound, Looking Solid, Truly Bubbly, and Longshots.

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

All indications from the selection committee on Sunday were that the four one seeds, including overall four Purdue, were “solid.” But things can change quickly, and Auburn adding a win over Kentucky gave the Tigers a very strong argument for the one line, as they were able to best Purdue in strength of schedule, number of losses, and Quadrant 1 wins, while matching the Boilermakers’ 11 total Quadrant 1 and 2 wins. But last night’s loss by Purdue to Wisconsin seals it. The Boilermakers drop from the one line and Auburn moves up.

A Strong Bubble:

It seems every year now, the media starts talking about how weak the bubble is. This year, the cutline looks like a monster. Look at some of the teams hovering on the bubble: Virginia Tech (four Quadrant 1 wins, including at Virginia), NC State (five Quadrant 1 wins, including at UNC), Kansas State (four Quadrant wins and four Quadrant 2 wins), Texas (five Quadrant 1 wins), Washington (five Quadrant 1 wins), and LSU (five Quadrant 1 wins). A plethora of quality wins are there for bubble teams and that usually isn’t the case. We are likely going to see at least three teams with 5 or more Quadrant 1 wins get their bubble popped on Selection Sunday, and it is rare to see teams with those kind of quality wins headed to the NIT.

West Virginia replaces Oklahoma on the four line:

Losing at Texas Tech isn’t a bad loss for Oklahoma, but they were already the worst-rated four seed by the committee on Sunday. Meanwhile, West Virginia is now at six Quadrant 1 wins, rather than the five they had on Sunday. With a season sweep of Oklahoma, the Mountaineers replace their Big XII brethren as the sixteenth overall seed in the bracket.

Saint Bonaventure is new to the bracket this week, thanks to three straight weeks of unbeaten basketball and some upheaval around the cutline. While their spot in the bracket is tenuous, they do have three Group 1 wins, eight wins away from home, and the 50th-best out of conference strength of schedule. For now, it’s just enough to get a First Four bid.

The First Four OUT of the Field:

LSU, NC State, USC, and Temple are just out of the bracket. LSU and NC State have great wins, but poor results-based metrics. Temple has great wins, but way too many losses for a team in the AAC. And USC’s profile doesn’t have great metrics or quality wins, which makes it just bland enough to leave them out.

We are now officially four weeks from Selection Sunday. With that in mind, the bubble has now trimmed itself and we have four distinct categories of teams: Tourney Bound, Looking Solid, Truly Bubbly, and Longshots.

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

If you were keeping count, 31 teams from 7 conferences are Tourney Bound, Looking Solid, or in Good Shape. That means there are only thirteen bids available for teams that are Truly Bubbly or Longshots.

As mentioned on this site, there were three locks for one seeds (Virginia, Villanova, and Xavier), and one wildcard West one seed. That ended up going to Purdue. While it’s understandable to see why they are there, it’s a bit surprising they could lose to both Ohio State and Michigan State and still get a one seed. This isn’t a bad selection from the committee, as that last one seed was completely up for grabs.

Duke as a Two:

What?! What has Duke done to get a two seed over Texas Tech? They have more losses than them and three less G2 wins. Texas Tech also has the best win – at Kansas. This selection shows how important out of conference scheduling is. That seems to be the only reason Duke is on the two line.

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Whew… what a Saturday of college hoops! We had tons of upsets that impacted the top of the bracket. But after some time to take it all in, we have three one seeds who will definitely be on the top line today (Villanova, Virginia, and Xavier), as well as one wildcard one seed in the West.

Here are my projections for how the four regions will shake out today:

EAST – 1 Villanova 2 Kansas 3 Clemson 4 Ohio St

WEST – 1 Texas Tech 2 Purdue 3 Duke 4 Texas A&M

SOUTH – 1 Virginia 2 Auburn 3 Cincinnati 4 Oklahoma

MIDWEST – 1 Xavier 2 Michigan State 3 UNC 4 Tennessee

The final one seed spot was not decided until after Texas Tech’s visit to Manhattan to play Kansas State. But I know pretty much everyone expects Michigan State to get a one, but I think Texas Tech is as good of a team as them, and they have a better resume. I’m calling for an upset – Texas Tech over Michigan State for the one line.

What’s odd is teams as far down as the four line actually have a reasonable argument for the one line, as Ohio State is the outright Big Ten leader with wins over both Purdue and Michigan State. Basically, I won’t be shocked if any team on the two line is determined to be the one seed in the West.