FBO: Predicting the BCS

• Has been a contributor to ESPN Insider and ESPN The Magazine since 2009
• Creator of the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), a measure of college football team efficiency
• Contributor to Football Outsiders and his own site, bcftoys.com

With the release of the first BCS standings of 2009, most of the attention will be paid to the undefeated teams at the top -- Florida, Alabama and Texas. The best teams from the best conferences have the inside track to the BCS national championship game, and if the Longhorns, Crimson Tide and Gators keep winning, they'll no doubt maintain their relative BCS positions week in and week out. Once Florida and Alabama settle matters in the SEC championship and Texas takes care of business in the Big 12, a neat and tidy BCS national championship match could be formed: Big 12 champion versus SEC champion. It's a common narrative this time of year, even when recent BCS races have been anything but neat and tidy.

But the fact is that a team with at least one loss has claimed the BCS national championship in each of the past three seasons, and several other "flawed" teams have positioned themselves with an argument for inclusion in the title game discussion at season's end.