Second Half Sleepers

In this week’s fantasy round table I proposed the question what guys are you eying for the 2nd half. Now as easy as it is to say Ryan Howard goes bananas in the 2nd half, I restricted these fantasy experts a bit more and limited our watched players as ones available in most leagues (the more obscure the better).

So here we go:
Brett Greenfield – Fantasy Phenoms

Three players likely on your waiver wire who I will be watching most closely are Jed Lowrie, Garrett Jones and Troy Glaus.

Jed Lowrie is a guy to watch. Julio Lugo was released and Lowrie is just about ready to return to the potent Red Sox lineup. Last August, right after he returned from a wrist injury, Lowrie scorched 16 base hits and 24 RBI for the month. He showed that he belonged as the Red Sox starting SS. Now healthy again, expect much of the same. He’s got some pop and was a huge RC27 guy last year. He could be eligible at SS and 3B in some leagues.

Garrett Jones could be this year’s version of the 2008 Nelson Cruz. The 28-year old is a first base-eligible outfielder who made his major league debut with the Pirates a few weeks ago. He was batting .306 with 12 HR and 14 SB prior to the call-up. In 42 AB in Pittsburgh, he’s been just as consistent as he was in the minors. Jones is batting .309 and already has five HR and three SB. If you need a potential power/speed threat who is eligible at 1B and OF, he could be your guy.

Troy Glaus hit 27 HR and drove in 99 runs last year for the Cardinals. He’s missed the entire season so far but should be returning by late July. He’ll take over at 3B and could bat 4th or 5th right behind Albert Pujols. Glaus could be a cheap source of HR and RBI in the second half.

Tommy Landry- Rotoexperts.com

1. Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA: I still don’t like him overall, but he’s available in all of my standard-sized mixed leagues. Yes, he’s been terrible this year, but he can help in batting average and will pitch in a couple of HR plus a handful of SB. Kendrick seems to have gotten his free swinging under control (10:7 K/BB ratio in last 58 AB since call up), and it’s showing up in his improved .281 BA in July. Better days are ahead. (Available in 60% of Yahoo! leagues)

2. Chris Davis, 1B/3B, TEX: No one questions his power upside with 15HR on only 52 total hits this season, but the 114 K in 258 AB is abysmal. A repeat performance of his .285 BA wouldn’t happen even if he could get his K-rate back down to where it was in 2008 (88 K in 295 AB), because that was held up by a .352 BABIP. Still, if he can take a chill pill in AAA and get his strike zone back in order, we’re looking at Adam Dunn lite. Stash in deep leagues and watch in smaller formats, but be aware that Justin Smoak could get the next crack at a callup and not Davis. Either way, I’m watching CD until further notice. (61%)
3. Carlos Guillen, 1B/3B/OF, DET: He’s in rehab and moving to AAA, so if his shoulder holds up, he should be back in the bigs by August 1. Sure, this isn’t the same Guillen of three years ago, but he’s also not as horrible as his early season struggles would suggest. Aside from his .240 BABIP in 90 tough AB, he’s also a .288 career hitter who was able to hit .286 just last year. Unless that shoulder is completely wrecked, there’s nowhere to go but up for Carlos.(74%)

4. Nyjer Morgan, OF, WAS: He’s been a basepath bandit for a month now, tallying 10 SB since joining the Nationals via trade on June 30. That’s 10 SB in three weeks. Oh yeah, and he’s a career .294 hitter, so he won’t kill your BA like some other SB specialists might. Any questions? (60%)

5. Franklin Gutierrez, OF, SEA: After a slow start to the season, he has improved his numbers in every single month. Through the first 16 games in July, he hit .375 with 5 HR and 2 SB. His BA won’t stay above .290 much longer, as evidenced by a BABIP of .339, but how many 20-15 threats do you find sitting around the waiver wire at the All Star Break? As the No. 6 overall player on Yahoo! for the 30 days prior to July 20, you’d think more than 33% of us would be interested, no? (67%)

Grey – Razzball.comAdam LaRoche – Is he available? Probably not after his trade to the Sawx. With his usual 2nd half splits and now being out of the shadow of his little brother and Andy’s constant pestering about what to get their parents for their anniversary, I’d grab LaRoche.

Joe Blanton – Why is he available in 90% of ESPN leagues? Oh, because 75% of ESPN leagues are abandoned. Well, then that puts Blanton actually owned at… You do the math!

Nick Punto – Now he’s definitely available! Too bad his last name is cussword and I don’t own those. Same reason why I don’t own Smoltz. Or Niedenfuhrer. Though they are Yiddish curses. Okay, for my third guy, I’m going to go with Lastings Milledge. He’s available all over and he’s crushing the ball in Triple-A and Pirates should promote him and he had a good 2nd half last year.

me:

1. Marc Rzepczynski Pronounced Zep-CHIN-ski he’s a strike out machine. The LHP has better AA numbers than Latos – most notably the 10.33 K/9. Technically, he was called up from AAA, where he had 2 starts and a 12+K/9. Like I said, sick strikeout machine.Being able to strike guys out is key, that and his ridiculous 64.4% ground ball rate. Brandon Webb, one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball, has a career GB rate of 64.2%.

So far he’s been solid, but with some command issues there will be ugly days. So buckle up this could be a wild ride.

2. Brett Cecil – He was picked before the recent string of 3 amazing starts so he may not be so available anymore. But, another Toronto pitcher who can strike guys out. This year he’s been up and down and when he’s had the opportunities he’s thrown some gems (and some ugly lines). The more he pitches and gets use to big-league hitters the more he’ll settle in.

3. Julio Lugo – He was once good. No, really. Like the Red Sox paid him a ton of money and they don’t invest in crappy guys. So when he changed scenery I was allllllll over it. So should you. Cheap steals? Don’t mind if I do.

4. (changed due to popular demand) Anyone that Seattle trades – the Mariners have a lot of interesting pieces that could be useful elsewhere. Take for example Jeff Clement…I’d roll my dice with a top-ranked (albeit below average defensive) catcher….or Brandan Morrow, he’s been brilliant before. They could deal Washburn too. This is a bit concerning as he won’t have the awesome defense behind him, but some run support would help.

5. In the light of today’s big trades, Ian Snell. I’ve liked him all year and it’s burned me. I do believe, given the chance to start for the Ms, this could be a great deal. His K-rate and the strong defense could be a great thing. If nothing else, a change in scenery will do him well.