So I came home for thanksgiving break and I just started to look at prospects. I by no means am a draft guru so I thought I'd start this thread and we could collaborate on what we think we will see on draft day.

What are our chances at a compensatory pick? Saturday & Clark were our notable FAs correct? I think that Redding/others might count enough against that.

For WR, I think we really just need another #1 type to replace Wayne, unless someone we got can step up into that role.. I'm happy with Hilton/Avery/Brazil at the other spot/slot. It's possible that we have success with a TE-centered offense with Allen & Fleener, and as long as we have the deep threat to stretch the defense we can be successful.

I'm growing on Shipley at center. If one falls in our lap take him, but Castonzo/Reitz/Shipley/???/??? is what we should be working with imo. No clue what's going on with Ijalana, but ready to move on if he doesn't show something next training camp. If we can get a RT in free agency, and use the 3rd or 4th rounder on RG, I think we'd be in a good position moving forward.

For the defensive line, not happy with anyone who's been playing thus far except Redding, and he's 32. It's possible that the players haven't fully grasped the transition to the 3-4 yet. And Pagano being out is perhaps a part of that. I think that finding talent through the draft or FA and using our present starters for depth is a good plan.

Also, what have people though of Hughes the last few weeks? Has he sucked less recently? I'm thinking our draft pick/cap money would be better spent on the D-line and see what Hughes can do in that setting. In short I thnk we could use a Richard Seymour more than a Demarcus Ware.

I think the ILBs are fine going forward. At safety, I wouldn't mind having a 2nd free-safety type. I tend to think once the rest of the defense is in place, we're going to have more issues with the pass than the run. Finding a player who can play centerfield would be better than someone who can thump a running back. Bethea is capable of playing near the LoS if needed.

For WR, I think we really just need another #1 type to replace Wayne, unless someone we got can step up into that role.. I'm happy with Hilton/Avery/Brazil at the other spot/slot. It's possible that we have success with a TE-centered offense with Allen & Fleener, and as long as we have the deep threat to stretch the defense we can be successful.

Yeah I think we are fine at waiting a while on WR. I put WR on the list of needs because we will eventually need a replacement to Wayne and it seems we just have a lot of speeders (which isn't bad).

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Originally Posted by falloutboy14

I'm growing on Shipley at center. If one falls in our lap take him, but Castonzo/Reitz/Shipley/???/??? is what we should be working with imo. No clue what's going on with Ijalana, but ready to move on if he doesn't show something next training camp. If we can get a RT in free agency, and use the 3rd or 4th rounder on RG, I think we'd be in a good position moving forward.

I haven't been able to see enough games to be sure how everyone is playing. I only know what other fans tell me and what I see from highlights. I agree completely with you on a plan of action though. I think we should pick someone up in free agency and maybe draft someone. I really like the tape I have seen of Warmack.

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Originally Posted by falloutboy14

For the defensive line, not happy with anyone who's been playing thus far except Redding, and he's 32. It's possible that the players haven't fully grasped the transition to the 3-4 yet. And Pagano being out is perhaps a part of that. I think that finding talent through the draft or FA and using our present starters for depth is a good plan.

Again I don't get to see the games, but I think there is so much potential in this draf class for defensive lineman and pass rushers. I think my favorite prospect right now is Dion Jordan he seems to be an excellent pass rusher. However, we do need some 5 techs to demand some blocking attention or o pass rusher will end up helping. So yeah I think someone like Seymour would be a huge help.

Quote:

Originally Posted by falloutboy14

I think the ILBs are fine going forward. At safety, I wouldn't mind having a 2nd free-safety type. I tend to think once the rest of the defense is in place, we're going to have more issues with the pass than the run. Finding a player who can play centerfield would be better than someone who can thump a running back. Bethea is capable of playing near the LoS if needed.

I absolutely agree with you about our ILBs. We need a Safety that is good in coverage. The reason I'm so high on Reid is because he is a smart player. I think he is someone we can be sure to make an impact.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch

Bill Polian is cancer wrapped in AIDS delivered in an XXL enema so please don't expect me to disagree with you.

The good news is that this draft is deep in positions that we need (DL, OLB, OL). I hope we take advantage.

BTW, what do you guys think about our NTs? I actually think they've held their ground ok. They are nothing special, but I think we can go with them for 1 more year.

Cb is a bigger need then what I thought. Our starters can't stay healthy and aren't all that good to begin with. It's no surprise that we are among the last teams in INTs. We need playmaker(s) in the secondary.

Johnson has played ok at nt but no one else really sticks out much. Chapman will be basically like a rookie next year but I still think we might go for a late round pick to fill depth. A true pass rushing OLB is a must. Freeny won't be back, Hughes still plays too uneven to be depended on and teams double team Mathis to negate him if Freeny is hurt/not playing. We need upgrades at about every spot for the other positions on our lines. Our interior O-Line blows chunks. Warmack would be a great pick as a 1st rounder if he lasted that long.

OL is definitely a need. I like Castonzo just fine at LT. I like Shipley a lot and would like him to play C. Other than that, I'm fine with new starters everywhere on the OL. Reitz can't stay on the field. McGlynn is bad. Justice is mediocre and can't stay on the field. Satele is too inconsistent.

There are a few guys in the draft I'm interested in. Chance Warmack is at the top of the list. However, it is a bummer to spend our 1st rounder on a guard and then not pick again til the 3rd. I am also interested in guys like Larry Warford, Travis Frederick (if he declares), Jonathan Cooper, DJ Fluker (RT or guard), Barrett Jones, and Alvin Bailey.

As I said I am not looking to replace Castonzo. But with $45 million in cap space it makes sense to upgrade the roster wherever possible. I don't think all of those guys will be available. Some will re-sign and others will be tagged. Hopefully though the Colts have a shot at one of them.

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Defensive: DE/OLB, NT, DE(5-Tech), SS, CB

I don't know about the order but I agree with the need. Really ILB is the only spot I feel good about on this defense. I am ok with the following players as starters next year:

Redding
possibly Moala (if he can consistently play like he did in his last game)
Mathis
Freeman
Conner/Angerer/Fokou (seriously love the ILB talent we have)
Davis
Bethea

Chapman may be the answer at NT, and I like Mookie and Tevaseu as depth, but if there's a good NT prospect available we can't ignore it. However, with no shot at Lotulelei or Hankins it's basically Jenkins or nobody, and I'm not sure Jenkins is worth our 1st rounder. In free agency Terrance Knighton may become available but he's only played 4-3 DT/NT.

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Freeney has not been great as an OLB and I just don't think he ever wanted to play the position. I doubt he will be re-signed and even though he is my favorite Colt I don't think he should be. Hughes, though he has improved, is depth-only material. He will never start, or at least shouldn't.

I love the rush OLB options available in this draft. Jarvis Jenkins, Barkevious Mingo, Bjoern Werner, Dion Jordan, Damontre Moore, Sam Montgomery, Zeek Ansah, Chase Thomas... we'll have a lot of options in the 1st I think. Good options. I think this almost has to be the pick unless there is unbelievable value somewhere else. All but possibly the last two will be gone by the 3rd when we pick. This is a great year to need a pass rusher, but lots of teams need them.

In free agency there is the underrated-but-old Shaun Phillips, Conner Barwin (meh), and... that's about it. It's draft or nothing, which is again why I think we need to draft an OLB in the 1st. Too much talent available, arguably the biggest need, and no options in free agency.

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As I mentioned earlier, I like Redding and Moala as starters if Moala can play like he was during the Bills game. I think he improved this year. However, Redding is old and gets hurt a lot, and Moala is no pro bower. If the Colts went after Randy Starks (MIA) to play DE I would not be upset, he'd be an upgrade over either of our starters.

In the draft there's Sheldon Richardson, Kawaan Short (I don't see him as a NT), Shariff Floyd, and I think that's about it. I've heard good things about Richardson but nothing to make me want him more than one of the OLBs. Short and Floyd are ok prospects but nothing I'm super excited about. I don't expect this position to get much stronger.

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We definitely need CBs. Davis will be good and Butler may be the NB of the future but Vaughn is a backup, Powers won't be re-signed, and the rest of the guys are just JAGs. Too bad we gave up picks (albeit low ones) to get some of them. However, there aren't any CBs in this draft that make me want to burn a 1st. Especially when you look at free agency...

Any of those guys (especially Moore, I'm a big fan) paired with Bethea makes the backfield instantly very dangerous. Bethea can play either S position so it comes down to available talent. No need to look for SS only.

In the draft, I do really like Eric Reid. Robert Lester too, if he falls to the 3rd. TJ McDonald, Kenny Vacarro, and Bacari Rambo are also all solid options. I think the Colts will have a better starter at S to play w/Bethea next year. Too many options and Zbikowski sucks too bad to leave it alone.

Well this post has turned into a book. Hopefully it makes sense. Let me know what you guys think. This season has been exciting, but it's also very exciting to think about how much better we can be next year!

Of course, for Garcon, Saturday and Clark, I expect a 5th, 6th & 7th rounder as compensatory picks. Garcon is a high impact free agent. When Edge left, we got a 3rd round compensatory pick, the highest that you can get. Because Garcon is injured, a 5th is what I am expecting. Saturday is the center for a playoff bound team, so a 6th at least is in order. Clark has had the least impact and a 7th rounder at best, much like Punter Smith.

Of course, for Garcon, Saturday and Clark, I expect a 5th, 6th & 7th rounder as compensatory picks. Garcon is a high impact free agent. When Edge left, we got a 3rd round compensatory pick, the highest that you can get. Because Garcon is injured, a 5th is what I am expecting. Saturday is the center for a playoff bound team, so a 6th at least is in order. Clark has had the least impact and a 7th rounder at best, much like Punter Smith.

Vontae Davis has really impressed me so far. I think giving up a 2nd round and conditional 6th round pick is a good trade for him.

Of course, for Garcon, Saturday and Clark, I expect a 5th, 6th & 7th rounder as compensatory picks. Garcon is a high impact free agent. When Edge left, we got a 3rd round compensatory pick, the highest that you can get. Because Garcon is injured, a 5th is what I am expecting. Saturday is the center for a playoff bound team, so a 6th at least is in order. Clark has had the least impact and a 7th rounder at best, much like Punter Smith.

The Colts have also signed a fair amount of Free Agents so there aren't a huge amount they are going to get through comp picks. Additionally Dallas Clark wasn't a free agent. He was cut.

Jeff Saturday and Sampson Satele cancel each other out. Both starters with similar contracts ($3.8M compared to $3.6M).

Of the remainder the Colts had 5 Free Agents and signed 5 Free Agents. The total yearly cost of the contracts of the Colts' free agents was about $14M. The free agents the Colts signed are worth about $8M. So the Colts may get something but it will be limited and purely for Garcon (who hasn't exactly had the sort of stellar year that prompts high comp picks).

I'd expect nothing greater than a 5th or 6th rounder and only that.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by George Carlin

In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.

Of course, for Garcon, Saturday and Clark, I expect a 5th, 6th & 7th rounder as compensatory picks. Garcon is a high impact free agent. When Edge left, we got a 3rd round compensatory pick, the highest that you can get. Because Garcon is injured, a 5th is what I am expecting. Saturday is the center for a playoff bound team, so a 6th at least is in order. Clark has had the least impact and a 7th rounder at best, much like Punter Smith.

I think any draft prediction should bear in mind that we have ~30m or so to pick up a few free agent starters. Its impossible to say who will be available in FA, and where will be the wise positions to spend money. If we get 2 starting caliber offensive linemen and a 5-tech, I'd be ok with a secondary heavy draft.

Of those, Pat the Punter should be #1 to be resigned as I agree with Phil. Avery would be welcomed back for a one year deal, I don't think sinking $ on him to a long term deal is necessarily good considering his injury history. I'm ok with Stanton as a backup for another year. Reitz and Linken could come back to compete for spots assuming we draft a few lineman. Same goes for Matthews and Fili.

O-Line and D-Lines really need addressed in the draft/FA. We still have too many needs to be all filled in another off season.

Assuming a $120.9M cap, I have the Colts sitting at the moment with 41 players signed and $50.6M in cap room. Now a certain amount of that will be used to sign Rookies ($3-4M depending where the Colts finish in the playoffs). There may also be a certain amount of dead cap from cuts and trades (though no one big got this so this can be no more than a $1M or so, if even anywhere near that). So there should be somewhere in the region of $45M to sign free agents.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by George Carlin

In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.

In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.

I think at this point a Pass Rusher is our biggest need. Dion Jordan I think has the best motor of the likely available people at our draft spot. I'm not sure Ansah would be a stud rookie, but he has a ton of upside. Crossing my fingers for Jordan/Jones/Montgomery/Mingo to fall

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Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch

Bill Polian is cancer wrapped in AIDS delivered in an XXL enema so please don't expect me to disagree with you.

Agree about a tackle and 2 OGs. I am hoping we pry Jake Long away from the Dolphins. The question then would be, is he a LT or RT? To me though it doesn't matter that much, both positions are important and there aren't going to be that many available good OLmen in free agency. Most will be re-signed or tagged by their current teams. Even if we have a shot at Warmack in the draft I am not sure I want to burn our 1st on a guard when we don't have a 2nd rounder.

I would not mind bringing in Bowe or Jennings at WR. Or even Danny Amendola. But I don't think WR is nearly the need that OL is.

I think we could stand to upgrade DE, but if we go into next season with Redding and Moala as starters I don't think that is bad. Redding is the leader this defense needs, and Moala has really improved. I like our DE depth just fine. This is not a huge need IMO, but if say Randy Starks hit free agency I could see us going after him.

And as much as I wanted Star Lotulelei when I thought the Colts would have a top 10 pick, I think we are fine at NT. Mookie and Tevaseu have held the position down fine. We will get two "new" guys at NT in Chapman and McKinney next year. Terrance Knighton is the only real option in free agency and I don't want to burn an early pick on NT. I think the starter at NT next year is already on the roster, and like DE I like our depth. I've seen real improvement from many of our DLmen this year.

Rush OLB is the biggest need on defense, maybe the #1 need overall. Freeney has improved his run defense this year but he is not getting to the QB. All the close games aren't helping but he also just isn't a good fit. Anthony Spencer and Connor Barwin are the top FA options but I'm not really interested. I am with RCA, I hope for one of the premier pass rushers to fall to us. It's a deep class so I think there's a good chance.
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Special Teams

Punter

Huh? If we re-sign McAfee (why the hell wouldn't we?) we are beyond set at punter.

1. OG ... we can't go with the same group next year, just can't
2. OLB ... not enough pass rush
3. SS ... playmakers in the secondary are needed
4. RT ... I can live with Justice for one more year, but not much longer then that
5. CB ... Davis is a starter. Vaughn and Butler are more of NBs. Depth is mediocre
6. DE ... Our current guys are good against the run, but it would help to get someone who can rush the passer

Anthony Spencer, OLB (most likely Freeney is gone because he will want 4-3 DE money and not 3-4 OLB money, Freeney probably goes to the Falcons or Saints, IMO)

Skill positions, pass rushers - all or most should come from the draft, IMO. For some reason, once the WRs and RBs get their money, their production never lives up to the same level like they did when they were hungrier and playing for that contract. Hence, our best bet is still draft for those.

Yeah I'm really hoping we can just address the secondary with FA. LaRon LAndry would be somebody I would like to see on the Colts. And if Sean Smith or DRC aren't resigned I would love to see one of them a Colt.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch

Bill Polian is cancer wrapped in AIDS delivered in an XXL enema so please don't expect me to disagree with you.

We also should look into getting Vontae Davis a new deal this off-season. Maybe we can get a minor discount since we got one more year on the cheap and he'll want some guaranteed money.

I'm pretty pleased with the receiving options moving forward. Hilton looks like a #2 at worst and we're only at the end of his first season. I think he, Fleener, and Allen can get the job done assuming the pass protection is there. If we do lose Brown this off-season or next, I'd love to get a Darren Sproles type though.

Huh? If we re-sign McAfee (why the hell wouldn't we?) we are beyond set at punter.

I agree. But as things currently stand we haven't resigned him yet and until we do I'm listing it as a need.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by George Carlin

In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.