China

Pro-China demonstration in Hong Kong

Poles apart

NOWHERE in the world, it seems, are demonstrators so hard to count as in Hong Kong. This was true even under British rule. Under Chinese sovereignty since 1997, Hong Kong’s arithmetic has got even harder. When untold thousands took to the streets on July 1st for what has become an annual march demanding full democracy for the special administrative region of China, the police estimated 98,600 people took part. The organisers reckoned more than five times as many braved the heat to raise their voices against the local government.

In comparison the estimates of attendance at the “pro-China” demonstration on August 17th are in a rather tighter range: 111,000, said the police; 193,000 the organisers. The police of course work for the government, and the Hong Kong government is itself "pro-China". But in this case, other complexities entered the calculations: how many of the protesters were genuine? How many took to the streets because they had been paid to do so? (The sizeable South Asian contingent, for example, seem unlikely to have been donating their day off for the cause.) How many were treated to lunch or “encouraged” by their employers to take part? And how many were mainland tourists, on what must have seemed an unusual coach tour?

Yet an unknown proportion of the unknown number of protesters was perfectly genuine. The aim of the demonstration was to oppose “Occupy Central with Peace and Love” (OCPL), a movement that threatens to occupy Hong Kong’s central business district, bringing traffic and commerce to a halt, if China refuses to meet its demands for genuine “universal suffrage” in the election for Hong Kong’s chief executive in 2017. So the demonstration was not so much “pro-China”, though Chinese flags were much in evidence, as “anti-disruption”.

Many people in Hong Kong oppose OCPL’s means if not its aims. They have been scared successfully by their government and business lobbies with apocalyptic warnings of the economic impact of such a confrontation. And some wonder about a campaign that seeks to preserve perhaps the most important feature that makes Hong Kong different from the rest of China—the rule of law—by a campaign of law-breaking.

Pollsters say that, although OCPL commands a lot of support in Hong Kong, it does not have a majority on its side. It held a “referendum” on the format of the 2017 election, in which 800,000 people took part. In response, its opponents organised a petition against it, and claimed 1.4m signatures, though again many of these were of dubious origin.

The issue over which OCPL is making its threat is nearing a head. In the last week of August the standing committee of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), is to make a ruling about the 2017 election. It is almost certain to reject OCPL’s demands that candidates for chief executive can be nominated by the public or by political parties, before facing the election by universal suffrage that Hong Kong is promised as an “ultimate aim” by its constitution under China, the Basic Law.

Instead, the NPC will insist on the Basic Law’s provision that chief-executive candidates have to be approved by a “nominating committee”. This is likely to be more or less the same as the “election committee” which chose the current chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, in 2012. It is a body of some 1,200 people, whose composition is designed to ensure that in the aggregate it does what China wants.

Even this, however, will not trigger the occupation. Rather, it is the “threshold” chief-executive candidates will have to cross. Recent hints have suggested that they will only be eligible to stand for popular election if they win the endorsement of at least 50% of the Nominating Committee. China would not only be able to ensure that its candidate won; it would also be able to block any candidate it did not like from standing.

If that is indeed the decision, then OCPL would feel forced to take action, even though its organisers would really rather not. “We don’t want to occupy,” says Benny Tai Yiu-ting, a cerebral and cheerful law professor, who is one of its leaders.

It would seem in China’s interests, too, to avert the occupation. It could play for time, for example, by leaving issues such as the nomination threshold and permissible number of candidates for future consideration. Or it may prefer to provoke a confrontation with its critics now, and try to turn the debate from one about democracy—which it would lose—to one about the rule of law, which, bizarrely, it might win. Either way, Hong Kong seems doomed to months of ugly confrontation, as its politics grows ever more polarised.

Why is TE's China coverage always so hypocritical and subtly biased? There is no doubt that the pro-China demonstration has received support from the Chinese government, but it's misleading to not also point out the outside support the anti-China camp has received. Leaked emails have shown that Jimmy Lai, the anti-Chinese media mogul who has close ties with right-wing US politicians such as Sarah Palin and Paul Wolfowitz, has secretly given millions to the anti-China demonstrators. This has been widely reported in Hong Kong media (just search for Jimmy Lai on Google news). The TE author cannot possibly be unaware of it.

If you had made yourself acquainted with a little bit history of CCP you would have not been so quick in jumping to the conclusion.

Founded in 1921 when there were 12 participants in the first congress to represent its fewer than 100 members, CCP got itself in a multitude of setbacks ever since. As regards setbacks, CCP has never regarded them as defeats, and it went on with its relentless struggles within the party and without, seeking for the route that would be fit for China, a country that had come through vicissitudes in the past thousands of years and survived the rest of the ancient civilizations of the world, to become powerful . It kept fighting and cooperating with its rival, KMT for the benefit of the Chinese nation. In 1945, led by Chinese government, CCP and KMT, together with 4.5 billion patriots of the nation drove the Japanese invaders away and won the war. In 1949, CCP became triumphant in the civil war as KMT was defeated to a larger degree by itself. 1949 saw the founding of People’s Republic ruled by CCP. 3 years later, CCP, along with Korean people won the Korean War that was lunched by the US-led allies. There are now estimated 80 million members of the party with XI as the helmsman.

In less than 3 decades, China overtook Japan and captured the second place in the world economy, and unfortunately left behind so many social problems to which there is no easy solution. The most worrying ones are for example corruption and pollution. These problems, however, are unavoidable in a country that is eager to catch up and to be rejuvenated owing to the fact that too much had been suffered from setbacks as the consequence of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976).

Admittedly, the pace is slowing down in relevant to development in China for both foreign and domestic factors since the financial crisis was triggered from the Wall Street. It has to be remembered as one Chinese saying goes that woe comes after weal and weal lies under woe. And it is thigh time that CCP readjust development model, establish a sound mechanism to put the power in cage through rule of law and provide social security for each and every citizen in the progress of urbanization, and that is certain to make development sustainable with efforts made by all CCP members of all people.

In less than 10 years, in the year of 2021 when CCP celebrates its 100 anniversary, your conclusion will not be worth anything if you were to breathe then.

so my beloved china's future will be so miserable, perhaps we need americans to save us, didn't they save iraq before? and we all know how nice and peaceful the country has become since they liberated it from some evil someone. now the isis in iraq? it must be a lie and no such thing.

All China is taking to is in great consonant with each and every great power did when it was during the time of transition from feudalism to capitalism or free market economy. Please consult with your history textbooks if you happen to have one at hand to get a general view of how the process of accumulation of wealth is described, given your textbook was compiled without slanting perspective. .

Never will Hong Kong be an independent nation like Japan that is seeking its 'normal status' as an independent state with the US troops occupation. Neither will Uncle Sam offer Hong Kong a free ride in its defense budget.

If you had made yourself acquainted with a little bit history of CCP you would have not been so quick in jumping to the conclusion.

Founded in 1921 when there were 12 participants in the first congress to represent its fewer than 100 members, CCP got itself in a multitude of setbacks ever since. As regards setbacks, CCP has never regarded them as defeats, and it went on with its relentless struggles within the party and without, seeking for the route that would be fit for China, a country that had come through vicissitudes in the past thousands of years and survived the rest of the ancient civilizations of the world, to become powerful . It kept fighting and cooperating with its rival, KMT for the benefit of the Chinese nation. In 1945, led by Chinese government, CCP and KMT, together with 4.5 billion patriots of the nation drove the Japanese invaders away and won the war. In 1949, CCP became triumphant in the civil war as KMT was defeated to a larger degree by itself. 1949 saw the founding of People’s Republic ruled by CCP. 3 years later, CCP, along with Korean people won the Korean War that was lunched by the US-led allies. There are now estimated 80 million members of the party with XI as the helmsman.

In less than 3 decades, China overtook Japan and captured the second place in the world economy, and unfortunately left behind so many social problems to which there is no easy solution. The most worrying ones are for example corruption and pollution. These problems, however, are unavoidable in a country that is eager to catch up and to be rejuvenated owing to the fact that too much had been suffered from setbacks as the consequence of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976).

Admittedly, the pace is slowing down in relevant to development in China for both foreign and domestic factors since the financial crisis was triggered from the Wall Street. It has to be remembered as one Chinese saying goes that woe comes after weal and weal lies under woe. And it is thigh time that CCP readjust development model, establish a sound mechanism to put the power in cage through rule of law and provide social security for each and every citizen in the progress of urbanization, and that is certain to make development sustainable with efforts made by all CCP members of all people.

In less than 10 years, in the year of 2021 when CCP celebrates its 100 anniversary, your conclusion will not be worth anything if you were to breathe then.

Over 250,000 real people participated the protest in support of the Anti Occupy Central.
There are 200 people being suspected to have received US60 as their transportation fee given by one organization. If it is proven to be true, the Alliance will deduct 200 from the total number.
For another case, the suspected organization which is said to have given out money is going to file a lawsuit against that news media, and the news media who created that fake story has immediately shut its mouth.
The success of this Anti Occupy Central protest has caused many sour grapes, and thus, the fake crowd allegation is spreading.

I am a Chinese working as a China analyst at a think tank. It is becoming more and more apparent to many people, that the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) knows it is on its last straw of survival.

The party is facing severe and increasing systematic stress on all fronts:

1. Increasing external oppositions from all other countries in the world including all of China's neighbours. They are forming more and more alliances and becoming more outspoken with rising strengths against China, in addition to increasing anti-China sentiment from people in all other countries.

2. Increasing internal severe and massive violent social unrest and anti-CCP mutiny from people of all Chinese living places e.g. mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Macau etc. To suppress internal dissent, the CCP every year is forced to spend even more money than on its massive military budget. This is continuously worsened by the free flow of information, with Chinese people knowing more and more from travelling abroad and learning about truths from jumping beyond the "Great Fire Wall" on the internet.

3. Fierce unstoppable purges and mutually-destructive infighting among different factions within the party, who are imprisoning and killing each other every day. This power grab goes on under the thin guise of "anti-corruption drive" when everyone knows all officials in china are corrupted.

4. Its own economy never able to develop to higher level beyond mass skill-less manufacturing, due to complete absence of law and common morals. High technology and innovations and scientific development all require citizens working together long term in a system they trust, with things like rule of law, no restrictions on speech and expression, copyrights, patents, common morals when collaborating and trading with each other etc. These qualities are all destroyed in modern China by the CCP. When was the last time you heard an announcement of technology development or innovations or scientific breakthrough coming from a Chinese organization or company or university? You haven't because there ain't any. The only way modern China gets these things is from stealing and spying from all other countries, but that has become much more difficult since the whole world has caught on to their act.

5. China's mass skill-less manufacturing itself is going away to other countries due to increasing costs and openly hostile and unfair business environment full of frauds and government robberies. This is worsened by the rise of robotic automatic manufacturing and 3D printing. This is a death knock to the "growth-based legitimacy" of the CCP, which is the only thing CCP can rely on for continuing ruling power. The CCP is on its last resort of printing literally trillions of worthless renminbi to dump into the economy, causing way more long-term harm than short-term help, and when that is over there is nothing else the CCP can do to prop up the failing economy.

For an attendance fee of HK$300 per person, the party cadres got around 200,000 to come to the party. Even my 70-year old mother got such an offer! (No, she didn't go and opted to buy her son lunch instead.) Some people in Hong Kong must be really hard up.
Looks like the party cadres need four times their attendance fee budget, if they want to match the turn-out for the anti-communist demonstration last month. Or was the attendance budget already big enough, but most of it was siphoned off to invest in properties in Canada or Australia?