The status of Canada’s temporary foreign workers is back in the news with their expected exodus on April 1. This exodus has to be concerning for franchises in the food service and hospitality industry because many of those leaving are likely their employees.

In April 2011, Citizenship and Immigration Canada implemented a four-year limit for TFWs in Canada. Not all foreign workers are subject to this limit, but those who are can only work in Canada for up to four years at a time. Once they reach the cap they have to leave the country and cannot re-apply for another work permit until at least four years have passed.

The program and its four-year cap came under fire last year following media coverage and public outrage over perceived abuses by employers, including allegations that TFWs were displacing Canadians and being paid less than their Canadian counterparts. An overhaul of the TFWP in 2014 included stricter rules on wages that can be offered and restrictions on how many low-wage TFWs can be hired by a given employer. In regions where unemployment rates are high, some franchises cannot access foreign workers through the TFWP at all, although there are ways foreign workers can enter Canada under other categories.

In light of these changes, the most immediate issue for franchises is where they will find replacement staff when many of their workers leave in a few days. The government’s hope is that unemployed Canadians will fill the jobs, reinforcing its intent that TFWs only be accessed as a last resort when there are truly no Canadians available for the job.

Do labour shortages actually exist in the restaurant and hospitality industry? Are there Canadians to fill the positions? It turns out, these questions are not as straightforward as you may think. The office of the parliamentary budget officer recently stated that a lack of information on labour demand and supply across Canada resulted in its inability to determine if Canada’s employers really need TFWs to fill low-skilled job vacancies (including in food service).

With or without government reports, we know there are regions across the country with high unemployment rates, so can the food service industry match job vacancies with the unemployed population? Employers have said that low-skilled vacancies, particularly in food service, are nearly impossible to fill with Canadians in the long-term. A 2014 report from the Canada West Foundation argues that, even where unemployment rates can be confirmed, it might be a mistake to assume that someone who is unemployed is necessarily willing to work in these positions. Canadians are seeking different, higher paying positions. Even youth willing to take the roles don’t stay long. Critics say that is the cost of doing business and one employers that need low-skilled workers must face. If they try hard enough and increase wages, they can find Canadians to fill the gaps, critics argue.

The government’s immigration policies from 2002 to 2013 acknowledged Canada’s need for low-skilled workers and worked with employers to address labour needs. Now, the TFWP is heading in the opposite direction by forcing low-skilled workers out and making it more onerous for employers to access this labour force. Even if franchises can hire TFWs that have not hit the cap after April 1, they will be in the same position in 2019. Transitioning a low-skilled TFW to permanent residence is unlikely since many in the food service industry, for example, do not qualify.

We will only begin to see the effects of the work permit cap on employers in the coming months and years, but one thing is certain overhauls to immigration law are forcing employers to address their needs without long-term foreign workers. Employers say what they want is permanent and reliable workers to fill spots so that their businesses can prosper. Perhaps they simply can’t get that without some help from the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.