AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUALDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAOAND BONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THENORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

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Invest 97L:If Rina wasn’t enough, we are once again closely monitoring Invest 97L which is now located in south-central Caribbean just north of Curacao. Invest 97L has become better organized overnight and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development over the next few days. I do think that this will become our next tropical depression and very possibly our next tropical storm over the next 2 to 3 days. None of the global models are spinning up this disturbance even though it is clearly showing signs of organization and development.

The dynamical hurricane models, however, are forecasting significant development with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting borderline Category 2-3 strength by this weekend. The track guidance like the three BAM models are forecasting a track that pulls this system northward across the Cayman Islands on Friday and then across western or central Cuba and towards south Florida by Sunday. As for the other dynamical hurricane guidance, the HWRF model forecasts that 97L will become a tropical storm during the day Wednesday and then a hurricane by about Friday. From there, the HWRF model forecasts that future Sean will affect the Cayman Islands as a upper end Category 2 hurricane late Friday and then cross central Cuba on Saturday night for a potential landfall in south Florida on Sunday.

The GFDL model is forecasting that 97L will develop into a tropical storm over the next couple of days and potentially become a hurricane by about Friday. The GFDL model then forecasts that future Sean will turn northwestward and possibly affect the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane on Saturday this weekend and then approach western Cuba as a major hurricane on Sunday.

I think there is enough evidence in the satellite presentation and the forecast favorable environmental conditions to say that Invest 97L needs to be watched very closely over the next couple of days and interests in the Cayman Islands should pay particularly close attention to this system.

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If those models are right, then this is definitely the threat to watch. Does the front simply disintegrate after tearing apart Rina? and leave behind more favorable conditions for Sean in its wake?Maybe Rina helps moisten up the atmosphere ahead of Sean and sacrifices herself for him. ???Very curious to see how this will unfold.

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:If those models are right, then this is definitely the threat to watch. Does the front simply disintegrate after tearing apart Rina? and leave behind more favorable conditions for Sean in its wake?Maybe Rina helps moisten up the atmosphere ahead of Sean and sacrifices herself for him. ???Very curious to see how this will unfold.

This scenario is indeed quite possible. I think as Rina maxes out in begins to weaken in a couple of days, 97L may indeed become the dominant tropical entity by this weekend. The interaction of these two systems the next few days is going to be very interesting to monitor for sure!

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:If those models are right, then this is definitely the threat to watch. Does the front simply disintegrate after tearing apart Rina? and leave behind more favorable conditions for Sean in its wake?Maybe Rina helps moisten up the atmosphere ahead of Sean and sacrifices herself for him. ???Very curious to see how this will unfold.

This scenario is indeed quite possible. I think as Rina maxes out in begins to weaken in a couple of days, 97L may indeed become the dominant tropical entity by this weekend. The interaction of these two systems the next few days is going to be very interesting to monitor for sure!

Or maybe there's a strong surge of cooler, drier air flowing across the NW Caribbean in Rina's wake that prevents any development.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANERINA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TOPRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEMHAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ANYDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAO ANDBONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THENORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BRENNAN

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This brought us yucky weather all morning. It's gotten pretty disorganized compared to last night, and the low seems to be weakening. Can't rule out development over the western Carib, but with Rina occupying that area right now I see little opportunity for 97L

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THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANERINA...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THESOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITYAND ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BESLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 MPH OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BERG

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THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANERINA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCINGDISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IFANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BLAKE

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I don't think it has a chance with that cool, dry air spilling into the NW Caribbean in 48 hrs. But we may need to keep an eye on the trailing end of the front in another week for possible development in the SW Caribbean.

1. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROMJAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA ANDHONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TOOCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLYSTATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

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