Tim Lincecum’s no-lose arbitration position: $13M is just right

Others in the organization might’ve been nudging for Buster Posey to get a look as the starting catcher this spring, but I believe Bruce Bochy was not one of them.

I don’t know that, can’t prove it, but I very much believe that. Ol’ Boch and I can have a private debate about that one again, if he wants.

And, thanks to the flattening of the veteran catcher market, suddenly Bengie Molina popped back into the Giants’ reach–at a bargain one year, $4.5M. Molina happens to be Tim Lincecum’s preferred choice to catch, by the way, so I can’t be too quibbling on this.

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So Molina goes back to the Giants, but not as the clean-up hitter. Apparently Molina will be batting a more reasonable sixth (behind Rowand, Sanchez, Sandoval, Huff and DeRosa) and Posey probably will start in Fresno, playing for former catcher Steve Decker, who continues his rise through the Giants system (while Posey goes backwards).

Several Giants sources have assured me that the team has no inclination to trade Posey–they’ve already paid him a $6M signing bonus, remember. It’s just that, I’m told, Bochy isn’t eager to send Posey out to catch this talented, tricky pitching staff.

Bochy has a point. I think he’s pushing back against the tide of Giants history here–Posey HAS to play very soon–but Bochy has a solid point and he won, again.

—–the column/

Surprised? Tim Lincecum approached arbitration as deftly as he handles any of his trips to the mound, and it’s safe to expect the same results.

Lincecum will be in control of this situation, from start to end. He won’t look silly or greedy.

And when it’s over, he probably will win.

Yes, it’s good to be Lincecum, the young Giants pitcher who already has accomplished almost everything and is about to start reaping the financial rewards for it.

That’s the essence of what happened Tuesday, when the Giants and their 25-year-old star pitcher exchanged 2010 salary numbers in baseball’s arbitration process.

The Giants’ figure: $8 million, the highest ever offered to a player in his firstyear of arbitration.

The figure submitted by Lincecum and his agents: $13 million, the highest ever requested by a player with Lincecum’s brief service time, but also much lower than some had speculated.

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If the Giants and Lincecum don’t come to terms on their own, either on a one-year or longer-term deal, both sides will present their cases before an arbitration panel next month.

In the past, team presentations occasionally have veered into negative territory, with animosity lingering well into the season.

But it’s incredibly unlikely that the Giants plan to raise any sensitive issues, particularly Lincecum’s recent arrest for marijuana possession, which was settled with a reduced charge Tuesday.

After all, Giants owner Bill Neukom flew up to Clark County, Wash., to greet Lincecum at the courthouse for the plea agreement.

Lincecum (40-17 with a 2.90 ERA in his career) is too important to the Giants for prosecutorial arguments in the name of salary relief. Too valuable.

And there’s not much or any real negativity to raise that would sway the panel anyway.

After the arbitration hearing, the panel must select either the team’s or the player’s salary figure.

So the worst-case scenario for Lincecum, who made $650,000 in 2009, is that he loses the judgment and settles for $8 million, which is the most satisfying worst-case scenario in Bay Area sports history.

But, given his status as the winner of the past two National League Cy Young Awards, his towering significance to the Giants franchise and his smart approach to arbitration, it’s hard to see Lincecum losing any part of this.

You see, there is a simple, logical, winning beauty to the $13 million arbitration figure.

It is far below the stratosphere of CC Sabathia’s $23 million average salary, which is tops among pitchers. There was some talk that Lincecum might try to match that number, but he ended up a humble $10 million lower.

A $13 million salary wouldn’t even be the Giants’ top pitching salary, by the way. That would be Barry Zito’s $18 million average.

But if Lincecum ends up making $13 million, he would break Ryan Howard’s record $10 million award for first-year eligible players, which was set two years ago.

Plus, Lincecum would be setting himself up for many future rich trips to arbitration, and then to free agency after the 2013 season.

In other words, $13 million is not too high and not too low. It’s just right. It’s a confident, clever figure.

If there’s no prehearing deal, Lincecum and his agents will go to the arbitration panel with the odds pointing directly toward victory.

The Giants, at $8 million, probably cannot expect to prevail against a pitcher with once-in-a-lifetime talent and accomplishments.

Felix Hernandez, a pitcher comparable in talent but two years closer to free agency, this week agreed to a five-year deal with the Seattle Mariners reportedly worth about $16 million a year.

Zack Greinke, another elite young pitcher, last January signed a four-year deal that averages $9.5 million with Kansas City.

Yes, the Giants are below the curve with their suggested salary. Maybe $8 million would have been sustainable in a hearing if Lincecum had asked for the moon. But he didn’t.

So the Giants need to try to meet Lincecum in the middle or higher — somewhere around $11 million — to avoid a potential defeat. Or they need to toss out large dollars for a multiyear deal.

It’s a good place for Lincecum to be. He really can’t lose, he is set up to win big, and he is in control of the whole thing.

Tim Kawakami

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Bochy is an idiot. Look at Joe Mauer – if the Giants want to be great and not diddle around, they need to push Posey and let him struggle a bit at the Show. Then maybe in a year or 2, he’ll be ready and be as good as any catcher in the league. There’s no point in keeping him in Triple A; in fact, he’ll probably regress.

http://www.toptravelnursingjobs.com Conrad

Steve Decker and Fresno is a perfect spot for a young catcher. Catchers traditionally spend a lot of time in the minors learning the game. Learning the trade with this top shelf staff is just not the best route for him or the team. One more year of Molina is perfect.

And as for Lincecum, he played his card perfectly. Class act. Now if the Giants would be just as classy and step to the table with a solid multi-year offer we can put this to bed and not have to go through it every year.

I’m starting to feel good about this lineup. (Of course it is the dead of Winter, lol).

http://oneflapdown77.blogspot.com CV

if the Giants had offered 10 they *might* have gotten him for 10. No chance they get him for 8, they must be hoping to work a deal outside of arbitration. I hope Tim gets the 13 mil, he deserves it…..
oneflapdown77.blogspot.com

STAN…The real Stan.

The Giants have gotten $26 million worth of pitching out of Lincecum for about $1 mill,the last two years. They dont have much to complain about when they lose in arbitration-maybe hoping they lose so Lincecum keeps his winning spirit.

btw, That “freak” thing? I hate it to no end. Its stupid,insulting, and not anything like “Slinging Sammy” or any real catchy sports nicknames. And some might not my bringing the real world into sports BUT-local media is oblivious,uncaring,ignorant too?, about Lincecums ethnic toots. Ignoring any chance to get his Filipino background into his nickname.
That “the freak” thing is for a punk band member. I just know it wasnt the local persons of color writers who came up with that idiotic insult of freak.

Brian

I’m glad Lincecum didn’t chase CC Sabathia’s $23m/yr deal. Set aside the issue of whether he would have gotten it or not, a really high number would have set overly high expectations for his performance…and it has the risk of being a huge distraction.

willieD

Agreed, CV, but SF already looks bad enough to rest of owners by offering $8, the highest ever. My only question would be where Nukes goes from here. If Tim is able to have a strong season and there is no contract agreement beyond 2010, he’d rightfully be demanding more. Cain’s at $4.5 this year, club option for $6 next year, and you’ve got to think he’s looking for more, soon. SF is still paying Zito, Rent and Rowand, which obviously impacted the type of guys they went after in FA market.

hitman

HEY, WHY NOT RECONSTRUCT ZIT’S OUTRAGEOUS CONTRACT AND GIVE SOME OF IT TO HIPPIE LETTUCE BOY! BUSTER POSEY TRYING TO HANDLE THIS STAFF. WHAT A JOKE! HEH,HEH,HEH. THE GNATS WILL ALWAYS BE THE DODGERS BEECHES!

tak

Tim, you are missing the conspiracy here. Lincecum and the giants decided on what figures to offer after Timmy demanded the resigning of Bengie. Signing Bengie meant Timmy would lower his offer and not make the giants look like they are lowballing him. Can’t believe you missed this, TK!

Neal

Trade Posey, that would be crazy, he was the minor league player of the year. Tim, talking about alll of this money, and your company is in 930,000,000 in debt, and declaring bankruptcy, I hope we can find you another blog if the merc goes under. Good luck Your blogs are the best!!

Flem Snopes

The Freak is an awesome nickname.

steve

‘hitman’ find the caps lock button and feel free to use it, loser.

James

Bochy being an ex-catcher considers himself the master of the position and will always be wary of Posey as the everyday catcher. If Bochy were still the manager of the Padres he still wouldn’t be comfy with Adrian Gonzales as his first baseman prefering his solid vet. Ryan Klesko. Come late in the season when everyone will be excited about Buster Posey being called up Bochy will use him to keep his seat warm on the bench and allow the fans to cheer Buster as he warms up the pitchers in the bullpen with a token PH appearance thrown in.

if bochy knows so much about being a major league catcher why was he just a bench warmer himself. the man looks like and has the intelligence of a saint bernard.

Stan…The Real Stan

And give Molina credit-he gave up half a mill a year to play for the Giants who most likey dont really care,with all they pay out to Zito and Rowand.
But who in the media would pass up a half mill to stay at KRON or KNBR?