Why Zimbabwe’s first elections after the Mugabe ouster are so significant

The July 30 general election in Zimbabwe is significant because it marks the end to a campaign season which for the first time in decades has been without the influence of ousted president, Robert Mugabe. Unless the election fails to produce an outright winner with a 50+1 majority as stipulated by law, Zimbabweans will soon know who their next leader will be. The new president will serve a five year term.

The election comes just a few months after Mugabe was ousted at the military’s instigation. It will determine the country’s future in the world after so many years of being ostracised from the international community. The outcome will also shape Zimbabwe’s political and economic outlook. And it goes without saying that the onus will be on the new leader to usher in a new era for Zimbabweans.

Despite its “Zimbabwe is open for business” mantra, Mnangagwa’s administration has battled to resuscitate the struggling economy. In the run-up to the polls the country remains afflicted by high unemployment , de-industrialisation and a severe liquidity crisis. This has affected the livelihoods of ordinary citizens many of who have resorted to eking out a living through street vending to put food on the table. The cost of living remains very high and those in the informal sector have borne the brunt.

Mnangagwa has promised to fix the economy and to lift the majority of Zimbabweans out of poverty.

As if reading from the same script, the main opposition candidate Nelson Chamisa has also promised to open Zimbabwe up to foreign investors, as well as to remedy the economic malaise that spread like a virus during the Mugabe era.

Winning hearts and minds

While on the campaign trail, the two main candidates, Chamisa (of the Movement for Democratic Change – Alliance) and Mnangagwa (of the ruling Zanu-PF), both promised heaven and earth. It therefore comes as no surprise that opinion polls and support on the ground for both candidates point to the fact that this election is a two-horse race between the MDC-Alliance, and Zanu-PF.

Chamisa has promised major infrastructural development that will include the transformation of rural economies into industrial hubs, an effective rail system boosted by the introduction of bullet trains, and the construction of modern freeways in Zimbabwe’s cities and towns.

Mnangagwa, on the other hand, is focused on reform and stability. He has made frequent mention of the ‘successes’ of his “new dispensation”, namely combating corruption, securing investment commitments, and kickstarting economic recovery. This is a tactic that is designed to justify why the electorate should give him a second bite at the cherry.

Tight race

It will be interesting to gauge whether rally attendance will translate into votes as Zimbabweans go to the polls. Both Zanu-PF and the MDC-Alliance recorded well-attended rallies, though the opposition has several times lampooned Zanu-PF for bussing school children in to shore up support at its rallies.

If rally attendance is anything to go by, it would seem that the race is too close to call. With that being said, rally attendance might not be the best yardstick to measure popular support.

Important to keep in mind, however, is that citizens attend rallies for varied reasons . Some go for entertainment purposes; some are forced, and some are in search of free T-shirts, party paraphernalia, food, and drink. Others attend just to see their political idols in the flesh.

No steps are taken at these rallies to determine if attendees are registered voters.

And then there is the issue of opinion polls. A recent opinion poll by Afrobarometer is predicting that Mnangagwa will garner 40% of the vote, with 37% for Chamisa. About 20% of respondents refused to disclose their preferences and 3% said they would vote for other parties.

Even with the knowledge that opinion polling is not an exact science it is likely to be a tight race between Mnangagwa, the establishment candidate, and Chamisa, his youthful contender.

Gift Mwonzora, Post-Doctoral Research fellow (specializing in Political Sociology) in the Unit of Zimbabwean studies – Sociology Department at Rhodes University, South Africa., Rhodes University

Welcome!

The plugin include some shortcodes, you can read more about them at the bottom of this page. The main 3 sections to configure the popup are:

Appearance: Where you edit the look and feel of the popup.
Display Rules: Here you choose on which page to display the popup (Set to all by default)
Display options: Some important settings about the plugin, being the more important trigger action.