UFC 162 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Silva vs. Weidman

Anderson Silva has won 17 consecutive bouts, 16 of them in the
UFC. | Photo: Zuma Press/Icon SMI

When middleweight champion Anderson Silva meets Chris Weidman at
UFC
162 on Saturday in Las Vegas, many believe he will be facing
his toughest
Ultimate Fighting Championship opponent to date. Though Silva
was reluctant to face the lesser-known Weidman a year ago, he has
since changed his tune, and fighters, trainers and fans alike have
generally supported the legitimate threat Weidman poses. To get a
better view, I ran through the 10,000 or so data points on these
two fighters to see how they truly match up.

The Tale of Tape shows two fighters that are evenly sized, and both
have above average reach for their division. The most glaring item
on the tape is that Silva is now 38 years old, which means he will
give up a sizable nine-year Youth Advantage to Weidman. This will
be the most significant age differential of Silva’s career in the
UFC, and he will be on the wrong side of it. However, Silva’s
unmatched experience in UFC title fights will likely be an asset
against Weidman’s short trip to first-time title contention.

Countering Weidman’s Youth Advantage is Silva’s versatile stance. A
natural southpaw, Silva can and does switch stances often during
fights. It is not a huge difference, but orthodox-stance fighters
tend to perform poorly in a variety of metrics when facing
left-handers.

One of the last items on our enhanced Tale of the Tape is the
layoff. Analysis has shown ring rust to be a real factor for
fighters with a layoff of 12 months or more. Weidman is essentially
right at that cutoff, and a shoulder injury resulted in surgery and
forced him out of a December bout with Tim Boetsch. The bottom line
is that Weidman will need all the youthful resilience he can muster
to bounce back on the UFC’s biggest stage against the crafty and
dangerous veteran champion.

Now, let us dive into performance metrics, starting with
striking.

I have done the math, and the answer is clear. In addition to
holding various records for accuracy and knockdowns, Silva is
statistically and punch-for-punch the most dangerous striker to
ever compete in the UFC. He outperforms in all skill metrics on
offense and defense, not by just a little but by a lot. In a more
macro sense, he is simply efficient in delivering damage; his 68
percent Significant Striking accuracy is also the highest in UFC
history.

In comparison, Weidman is above average with his jab accuracy,
generally outworks his opponents and has striking defense that is
quite good. In terms of his power striking, he lags the division in
accuracy and ranks in the middle of the pack in his knockdown rate.
He throws exactly the average mix of power strikes, as compared to
Silva, who throws slightly more heat.

The only areas that give a small advantage to Weidman are in pace
and clinch defense. While few people are predicting Weidman will
get the best of the experienced muay Thai practitioner in the
clinch, the pace factor may be a real advantage. Weidman is more
likely to control the cage and push the pace, and he normally
operates at a higher overall rate of striking than Silva. He may
use this to his advantage to win standup points with volume by
exploiting Silva’s need to guard against takedowns. That brings us
to the ground game, where this gets more interesting.

The highest performing stats on the ground go to Weidman. He
attempts a little more than two takedowns per round, which is well
above average, and lands them with a success rate that is nearly
twice the average. While Silva’s own takedown success rate is
similarly high, it only takes into account four career attempts in
the UFC. Historically, he has rarely attempted to go to ground.

On defense, Weidman’s perfect mark in takedown defense rounds out
his superior wrestling metrics, but Silva is no slouch, having
defended takedowns at an above average rate against 57 total
attempts from his opponents. All things considered, it would be
surprising if “The Spider” ends up in top position, but a healthy
Silva should not go down easily.

Once on the ground, Weidman has been dominant, with more frequent
position advances and a strong ratio of striking from his
ground-and-pound work. He is also more likely to attempt
submissions, with two finishes to his credit in his compact UFC
fight history.

While Silva’s jiu-jitsu credentials should not be underestimated,
it does seem like grappling gives Weidman the greatest chance for
success, at the least to win rounds. Many have suggested he can
implement the Chael Sonnen game plan of pushing forward,
relentlessly going for takedowns and then trying to work a
conservative ground-and-pound attack. Based on the numerous rounds
Sonnen won against Silva with this recipe, it sure seems like a
good approach. In fact, in several key ground performance
statistics, Weidman actually has been superior to Sonnen, which
means he is well-equipped to utilize this strategy.

The Final Word

The current betting line favors the Silva (-265), with the comeback
for the challenger Weidman at +225. That means the market is giving
Silva a 73 percent chance of keeping his belt at UFC 162.

Labeling Weidman as Silva’s most dangerous opponent yet in the UFC
is debatable based on his performance stats, but it is definitely
not true based on betting lines throughout Silva’s career. In six
different UFC matchups, Silva has been pegged at lower odds than he
is now, including the one time when he was an underdog in the UFC
against then champion Rich Franklin. That Silva’s chances for
success have been lower, according to the market, against Franklin
(twice), Chris Leben, Nate Marquardt, Dan Henderson and Vitor
Belfort puts at least part of this question to rest. With that
said, there are still a few days for the hype machine to take
effect, and the line could easily migrate back towards the
challenger.

Either way, the fact remains that the leading candidate for the
“Greatest of All-Time” tag gets older and closer to retirement with
each appearance, all while his foes continue to elevate their
games. Silva’s running record for most title defenses also means
the middleweight division is ever hungrier for an upset and new
blood. Perhaps no other mixed martial artist possesses the same
weapons Silva embodies, but there may be more complete and stronger
fighters on the horizon, and Weidman seems to fit the bill.

What do you think? Are there any specific metrics you believe give
Weidman a better chance than the current market predicts? Are there
any specific factors that will determine the outcome of this
matchup?

Note: Raw data for the analysis was provided by, and in
partnership with FightMetric. All analysis was
performed by Reed Kuhn. Reed Kuhn, Fightnomics, FightMetric and
Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights,
financial or otherwise.

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