5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell2 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Intermediate/Advanced swell1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell

Significant:Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better. Advanced:Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.Intermediate:Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high. Impulse/Windswell:Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEWOn Tuesday this first day of December (12/1) North and Central California was getting nice clean little Gulf swell with waves in the 1-3 ft overhead range and glassy. A beautiful Fall day. Southern California was barely getting any of the Gulf swell, or at a minimum it was swamped by high tide early with waves north and south breaking right on the beach at about 2 ft on the face. Nice and glassy though. Hawaii's North Shore had some leftover windswell coming from the Western Gulf with waves in the 1 ft overhead range and clean, but with a bit of lump on it early. The East Shore had solid northeast windswell with waves 2 ft overhead or so. The South Shore had a few knee high sets and clean with light trades in effect.

The forecast for North and Central CA is for Gulf swell to fade out on Wednesday in the head high to 1 ft overhead range, then down to shoulder to head high on Thursday. New more north angled dateline swell is on tap for late Thursday pushing double overhead and a little more on Friday, dropping to 1-2 ft overhead on Saturday with a more north angled windswell expected in on Sunday at 1-2 ft overhead. Certainly no lack of rideable surf. Southern California is to see the same pattern with supposed Gulf swell dropping to waist to maybe chest high on Wednesday (though that seems a bit optimistic seeing what the surf looks like on Tuesday). Knee high leftovers expected Thursday before new northerly dateline swell arrives on Friday at head high or better at top spots. That swell to fade from chest high early Saturday and knee high on Sunday. The North Shore of Hawaii is to see sideband energy from the northern dateline region building on Wednesday to 3 ft overhead late, then up to 12-15 ft faces on Thursday then fading from 4 ft overhead on Friday. Another pulse of larger dateline swell is expected in on Saturday at 15 ft on the faces dropping some on Sunday from double overhead or a little more early. Certainly a nice pattern setting up. The East Shore is to have one more day of east-northeast local windswell at chest high Wednesday, then gone for the foreseeable future. The South Shore is in hibernation for the winter though there some hints of a little energy arriving for Fri-Sun (12/6) at knee to thigh high or so.

Longterm the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues solidly into the Active Phase. That layered on top of a building El Nino should set the stage for development of solid storm pattern for the North Pacific. And if the models are to be believed, just that is expected to develop. A primer storm is forecast for the dateline Thursday with a large and strong system right behind for the coming weekend. Take a look at the models and see for yourself. Pretty impressive. If any of this is realistic, a long bout of solid long period swell is possible. But that is likely just the usual hype by the models, and none of it is to be believed just yet. At least there's something to monitor.

SHORT- TERM FORECASTCurrent marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

NorthPacific

OverviewOn Tuesday (12/1) the North Pacific jetstream continued to have had a solid consolidated flow pushing flat off Japan at 150 kts reaching east to a point just north of Hawaii, then splitting just east of there with the northern branch pushing hard north to Alaska with the southern branch tracking over Baja. A weak trough was trying to organize from the dateline into the Western Gulf of Alaska providing limited support for surface level gale development. Over the next 72 hrs the split point is to hold it's ground while more energy builds in the jet off Japan, pushing 190-200 kts on Thursday (12/3) with a deeper trough digging out on the dateline. Good support for gale development is likely. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to pinch off late Friday, then more energy is to build off Japan feeding back into the remnants of the trough at 180-190 kts generating a second trough over the same area Sun/Mon (12/7) and starting to make eastern headway. The ridge that has been protecting the US West Coast is to be gone on Tuesday with a solid jet pushing right into the Central CA coast then. A change in local weather is possible there.

At the surface on Tuesday (12/1) residual fetch from a strong gale that was over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians was tracking east into the Western Gulf of Alaska with swell radiating east out ahead of it (see Another North Dateline Gale below). Weak high pressure was holding off the Southern CA coast making for calm winds there and pushing a light easterly flow into and over the Hawaiian Islands.

Over the next 72 hours significant changes are to start brewing as the jetstream starts to activate above the West Pacific. On Wednesday AM (12/2) energy bleeding of of the remnants of Typhoon Nida are to converge with the jetstream on the dateline with 50 kts winds quickly building to near 55 kts at 39N 172E in the systems southwest quadrant aimed decently at Hawaii up the 312 degree path. Seas on the increase. In the evening 50 kts winds to continue aimed more southeast than east at 37N 178W targeting Hawaii again up the 315 degree path. 26 ft seas projected at 36N 178W (and likely higher) targeting Hawaii well. On Thursday AM (12/3) the core of the storm is to start lifting north with 50 kts northwest winds at 41N 170W aimed right down the 331 degree path to Hawaii and 30 degrees south of the 290 degree path to Northern CA. 30 ft seas forecast at 35N 172W from earlier fetch with a new area of 29 ft seas setting up at 40N 172W. A surge of energy is to build in the evening with 55 kt northwest winds at 45N 170W aimed right down the 337 degree path to HAwaii and 25 degrees south of the 296 degree path to NCal. 35 ft seas forecast for a small area at 39N 168W pushing mid-way between Hawaii and California. Friday AM (12/4) 50 kts winds to continue over a smallish area at 46N 170W aimed right down the 296 degree path to NCal and 40 degrees east of the 340 degree path to Hawaii. 26 ft seas from previous fetch hanging in the area of 38N 170W targeting the Islands great with decent energy radiate east towards the US West Coast. This system is to be gone by the evening with 25 ft seas from previous fetch at 35N 160W.

If all goes as forecast a solid moderate period (14 sec) swell looks likely for Hawaii for the weekend

Another North Dateline GaleOn Sunday AM (11/29) a gale that was off the Kuril's Islands started wrapping up setting up a solid fetch of 45-50 kt northwest winds blowing over the Western Aleutians and into unobstructed waters of the North Pacific at 50N 175E with additional 45-50 kt southwest winds feeding into the front preceding it. 25 ft seas building at 48N 178W. In the evening 45-50 kt west-northwest hold stationary over the extreme northern North Pacific in association with a large storm landlocked in the Bering Sea with 30 ft seas building at 49N 180W. The fetch started sinking south on Monday AM (11/30) with 50 kt west-northwest winds building just clear of the Aleutians at 51N 180W with 38 ft seas modeled building at 49N 174W with 30 ft seas south to 45N, in the 298 degree path to NCal. These winds and seas were just barely clear of the Southern tip of the Aleutians. Finally in the evening a clear fetch of 45 kt west winds sank south of the Aleutians at 50N 172W with 39 ft seas modeled at 48N 170W with 32 ft seas south to 45N, on the 296 degree path to Ncal, but most energy aimed down the 304 degree path. The Jason-1 satellite passed right through the core of the fetch at 0Z and confirmed seas at 36.4 ft with one peak reading to 38.7 ft, about a foot or two smaller than the models suggested, but not too bad, especially considering there was no QuikSCAT data to feed the GFS models (which in turn drives the Wavewatch 3 wavemodel). 30 ft seas were also confirmed as far south at 45N 169W. The fetch faded from 35 kts Tuesday AM (12/1) at 48N 170W with 35 ft seas holding at 49N 165W with 32 ft seas down to 44N on the 296 degree path to NCal. The fetch is to be gone in the evening.

California Nearshore ForecastOn Tuesday (12/1) a weak pressure pattern was in control of the California coast with a light offshore flow in effect for the entire state. A weak pressure pattern and light winds if not calm winds are forecast through Saturday AM (12/6). High pressure is to build over Pacific Northwest with low pressure inland over Eastern Nevada possibly setting up a north fetch from Pt Arena south to Pt Reyes or so on Sunday, but even that is not certain. A light flow is to return on Monday (12/7). There some suggestions of a 15 kt northwest flow over Pt Conception and the Channel Islands on Tuesday (12/8) but otherwise light winds prevailing.

TropicsWith the MJO in the Active Phase, net tropical activity is expected to head up some starting 11/20, though it is late in the season. This will be a true test of this El Ninos strength.

Right on cue Typhoon Nida formed in the West Pacific (11/24) with sustained winds 75 kts located 300 nmiles south of Saipan. Slow and steady strengthening occurred with winds up to 110 kts on Friday (11/27) and then reaching Super Typhoon strength to 130 kts on Saturday (11/28). Nida drifted slowly north remaining in open waters well east of the Northern Philippines on 11/28 with no change forecast. Current data is consistent with previous forecasts, with Nida down to 75 kts and holding ground where is has been, though starting to gain a little northwestern momentum. Nida is expected to slowly fade while accelerating off to the northeast on Thursday with winds down to 45 kts then getting assimilated into the North Pacific winter storm track (see details above). No swell is expected to US interests directly, though tropical outflow from it is expected to fuel several winter-like storms in the North Pacific in the coming days.

SouthPacific

Overview
At the surface no swell producing fetch was occurring and none is forecast for the next 72 hours.

Previously a series of gales past under New Zealand, the first on Wednesday afternoon (11/25) generating 40-45 kts southwest fetch and nearly 30 ft sea at 50S 170E aimed decently at Hawaii, pushing to 47S 178E Thursday AM (12/26) with swell possibly radiating northeast towards Hawaii. Another stronger but still small system followed Friday AM (11/27) with 55 kt southwest winds and 37 ft seas at 52S 175E, tracking east-northeast with 50 kts winds and 42 ft sea at 52S 178W in the evening, pushing 38 ft Saturday AM at 52S 170W with winds fading and falling to the southeast. Possible rideable southern hemi swell for could materialize for Hawaii a week out, but will likely be irrelevant compared to what's coming from the north.

LONG-TERM FORECASTMarine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

NorthPacific

Beyond 72 hrs another tropically fueled storm is forecast to be tracking east off Japan by Friday with 55 kts winds building, hitting the dateline Saturday AM (12/5) with winds to 60 kts or better and starting to really wrap up, getting good traction on the oceans surface from winds and seas generated there just 36 hrs earlier. Initial fetch is to focus on Hawaii. 30 ft seas forecast at 35N 180W. But by Saturday evening 60-65 kts west winds are to take over aimed well at North CA down the 290 degree path and also well at Southern CA down the 295 degree path. 40 ft seas to cover a solid area at 38N 172W. Sunday AM (12/6) things are to decay a bit, but still a large area of 50-55 kts west-northwest winds are to hold at 40-45 N 170W blowing over the exact same area of water aimed well up the 292 degree path to Ncal and the 292-300 degree path to SCal and 30 degree east of the 335 degree path to Hawaii. seas building to 49 ft at 41N 169W. This fetch is to hold ground but fade a little in areal coverage in the evening (50 kts), but still incredibly impressive. 45-46 ft seas to cover a huge area at 41N 169W. Monday AM (12/7) winds to be fading from 45 kts up at 45N 175W (335 degs Hawaii, 296 NCal, 301 SCal). 43-44 ft seas forecast at 40N 170W, again in the huge areal category. Seas fading in the evening from 38 ft from previous days fetch at 40N 165W. This system has incredible potential if it develops as forecast, still a long shot and based purely on model output. Not one breath of wind is blowing on the oceans surface yet.

And yet another smaller system is forecast behind that pushing towards the dateline on Tues (12/8).

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (12/1) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Active Phase supporting the continued evolution of El Nino. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index continued in the negative range with the Daily SOI index up some to -8.10 (almost 20 consecutive days in a row). The 30 day average was up to -6.15 while the 90 average was down some to -6.12. This continues looking more like a legitimate El Nino based solely on the SOI.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models continued indicating a strong and broad area of westerly anomalies consistent with the Active Phase covering the the Eastern Indian Ocean and West Pacific reaching just over the dateline and pushing east from there. The Active Phase is to continue pushing east reaching into the Eastern Pacific on 12/5 and tracking east from there while slowly fading, reaching Central America on 12/10 but still holding ground on the dateline, then slowly dissipating through 12/20. A weak version of the Inactive Phase is forecast trying to get legs in the Indian Ocean at the same time, reaching New Guinea on 12/20 and nearly dissipated. This Active Phase episode is expected to increase storm activity in the North Pacific through mid-December.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (11/30) indicates that warmer than normal waters are consolidated on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and even west of there, but have been steadily pulling away from the Baja coast. The lack of a real Kelvin Wave in a while is likely not helping that situation. But with the coming of a new strong Kelvin Wave (see below) there is some anticipation that warmer waters might build to the north. From an El Nino perspective, it make no real difference though. The expanse of the warmer waters continues to hold on equator, covering slightly more area and filling in with the warmest waters covering greater area now. Overall the warm water signature remains non-exceptional, but clearly in the moderate El Nino category and building very slowly but steadily.

Of interest, the water temp anomaly data provided by NOAA/NESDIS (satellite based) versus the TAO/TRITON buoy array, present different depictations of the same event. The TAO array suggests max heating is occurring on the dateline, with temps easing as one tracks east, while the satellite based data from NOAA presents an analysis of continuous warm waters over the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. The difference is in how the data is collected (buoys at fixed points versus a satellite view of the entire playing field). We're siding with the satellite view not because it is more favorable, but because we believe it more accurately represents reality. The buoy arrays strength is in waters temps at depth (i.e. for detecting Kelvin Waves). This is exactly what the array was built to detect. The satellite view cannot do that. Likewise, the satellite has far superior coverage.

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look favorable. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now. As of 12/1 a core of 5 deg warmer than normal sub-surface water is currently tracking east located at 110W with it's leading edge starting to move off the charts, and into the Central American coast. This should fuel an increase in the warm water surface pool as it erupts along the coast building there and eventually tracking back west on the equator driven by trades. This Kelvin Wave that first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 and tracked steadily east through 12/1. and was the result of a prolonged persistent westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8 and continued into 11/5.

Over the Equatorial Pacific and consistent with the Active Phase, surface winds started to move anomalously from the west extending the whole way from Indonesia to a point south of Hawaii, with weak real west winds confirmed in the far West Pacific. A new Westerly Wind Burst started to develop on 11/28 and was very obvious on 11/30 with fully blowing west winds near 165E, and strong. Suspect another tropical system is building there. This could help to form yet another Kelvin Wave which would be good. The Kelvin Wave currently tracking east was formed from a prolonged bout and multiple pulses of westerly winds and westerly anomalies that occurred from 9/8 through 11/2. At one point towards it's end the anomalies reached the whole way from the West Pacific to almost Ecuador. Embedded in that run were Typhoons Dujuan, Choi-Wan, Parma, Melor and Nepartak. All this helped to deepen the surface warm pool in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

El Nino is expected to affect the global atmospheric weather pattern at least through Spring of next year if not into the middle of summer. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a moderate one. NOAA's last update (11/5) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at some uncertainty. In short, all the best models aren't exactly sure how this is going to play out. Regardless a solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years.

The current El Nino is gaining strength, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news. But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.

Interview With Stormsurf: The crew at SurfScience.comworked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing. This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others. See the full thing here: Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process. Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone. Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget- Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml