Euro 2016 – what are the fans talking about?

The
UEFA Euro 2016 competition started in France last week so LexisNexis BIS took a look at social and traditional
media coverage of the top seven teams to
find out which is the fan favourite to win, and whether media profiles offer insight into the ultimate winners of the
competition.

France plays host to Euro 2016 this year,
with their first game against Romania at the Stade de France in Paris on the 10th
June. Despite the expansion from 16
teams to 24 in this year's competition, the bookmaker's top seven likely
winners is a familiar list; France, Germany, Spain, England, Belgium, Portugal,
and Italy.

Bookmakers are rarely wrong and while odds
are calculated not only on each team's perceived chance of success but their
potential for betting popularity, we analysed the media profile of the top
seven teams to see if it shows a clear fan favourite. Using LexisNexis Newsdesk, we analysed each
team's media profile across social and online news, analysing 'Share of Voice',
'Social Buzz', 'Popular Mentions' and 'Mention Sentiment'.

'Social
Buzz' – backs the bookmakers

'Social Buzz' confirms France's position as
the bookmakers favourite to win the competition on home soil, although its role
as tournament host means the team has unfair advantage when it comes to talk on
social media. Home advantage may also have
influenced bookmakers' decision to place France as the clear favourite.

Germany and Spain are close behind with
odds of 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, and have been battling for second and third
place in terms of social buzz since the beginning of March. Germany had more support on social media
until the middle of April, when buzz around Spain increased substantially. As the tournament edges nearer, social buzz
around the two teams remains pretty consistent.

Although England are fourth favourites to
get their hands on the Henri Delaunay
Trophy, the team has been a leader in social buzz in
the two months leading up to the tournament.
Currently, England is a clear second and the buzz surrounding the team
has been steadily increasing.

Share
of voice – England top the group

Unsurprisingly bearing in mind the media's interest
for the England team, England is dominating 'Share of Voice' of the media
profile surrounding the competition at nearly one quarter, with France closely
following at just under 22%.

England manager Roy Hodgson has also
dominated 'Popular Mentions' in the lead up to the competition, with several of
the team's players also making an appearance in the 'Popular Mentions'
analysis, led by the striking trio of Jamie Vardy, Harry Kane and Wayne Rooney.

Sentiment
analysis – Hodgson leads the line

Using LexisNexis Newsdesk's analysis of the
sentiment of Hodgson's mentions, the results show that despite a substantial
number of articles being negatively focused, sentiment is positive
overall. Hodgson's domination of the
media landscape, particularly at a time when Manchester United were in the
process of replacing former manager Louis van Gaal with Jose Mourinho is
extraordinary – as evidenced in the chart below.

Media
profile predictions for glory

Defending champions Spain—who won the title
for the third time at Euro 2012—will be looking to retain their crown this year. Using Nexis Analyser to look back at the
media profile surrounding the previous competition in Poland and Ukraine shows
that predictions based on media profile alone do not always produce accurate
results. Whilst Spain enjoyed a brief
lead in media profile in the run up to the competition, they fell to a concrete
fourth in the month before, yet still went on lift the trophy.

Predicting the winner of this year's
competition through media and social sentiment may therefore be unreliable, but
analysing the overall media profile of the competition, the leading teams and
the individuals people are talking about, does provide insight into other
aspects of the tournament.

As fans' favourites, England can expect a
great deal of comment if the team exits the tournament early. Despite Michael Owen's pep talk to the
England players imploring them to "play without fear", for a team traditionally
unable to find the right amount of inspiration on the night, the media hype
surrounding their participation may do more harm than good.

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