Who’s Really in Romney’s “47%”?

I don’t want to spend too much time on Mitt Romney’s “47% of the people” video, because I hate to kick a guy when he’s got his foot in his mouth. But I do want to point out that in his remarks, Romney was doing more than speaking inelegantly — he was, perhaps unwittingly, taking potshots at some of his most loyal supporters.

For those who missed it: Mother Jones released a video yesterday that was shot at a private fund-raiser. In it, Romney says that “there are 47% of the people who will vote for the president, no matter what,” in part because they are “dependent upon government.” He later adds, “These are people who pay no income tax.” After the video went public, Romney explained that he believed that his themes of cutting taxes and shrinking the size of government would repel voters who didn’t pay taxes or received government benefits: “I’m not likely to draw them into my campaign,” he said.

Romney’s numbers are basically right — in 2011, 46% of Americans paid no income tax, according to a report earlier this year by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. But it turns out that roughly a quarter of that untaxed population pays no income tax because they’re retired — they’re avoiding the levy thanks to “the exclusion of some Social Security benefits from taxable income [and] the tax credit and extra standard deduction for the elderly,” as Roberton Williams of the tax center explained.

And here’s the irony: Those elderly “dependents” of Uncle Sam belong to one of the demographic groups that’s solidly in Romney’s corner. Among voters 65 and older, Romney led President Obama by 15 points in last week’s New York Times/CBS poll; in fact, they were the only age group with whom Romney held a lead.

Of course, Romney has also said that the over-65 set won’t bear the brunt of any cuts in government spending: His campaign has said repeatedly that a Romney administration won’t change Medicare or Social Security for today’s seniors or those nearing retirement. I’m thinking now might be an opportune time to launch a line of “Dependents for Romney” T-shirts and bumper stickers; email me if you’d like to invest.

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