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THE first pin to the bubble came with Salala. Americans killing Pakistani soldiers en masse: it was a made-for-Khan moment.

He could bellow against the unpopular war next door and it would be lapped up by resentful Pakhtuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and agitated patriots in the Punjabi heartland.

But the PPP-led coalition was for once alert to the possibilities.

Battered by memogate, unsettled by the rise of Khan, hammered by the PML-N, the coalition took a hard line on the Salala killings. It endorsed the closure of the Nato supply route, gave parliament the nod to draw up fresh terms of engagement with the US and made all the noises necessary to make it known that it wasn’t going to be business as usual with the Americans any more.

All of that put the coalition in lockstep with the army, which also leapt on Salala as a way to wrest back some space from the Americans and to counter the fallout from May 2 and PNS Mehran.

Suddenly, Khan’s wasn’t the only act in town banging the anti-US drum.

It’s harder to argue that the state — mostly the political government in Khan’s imagination but also the security establishment to some extent — is America’s poodle when they’re shutting off supply lines to a war effort and turning away important guests to Islamabad.

Khan’s other public misstep was the boycott of the by-polls, partially triggered by his insistence that incoming members of the PTI abdicate public office.

Khan doesn’t want his party tainted by what he’s lambasted as tainted assemblies, but politics abhors a vacuum. From 1985, parties have figured out that boycotts are a bad idea. They give a chance to new forces or allow old forces to consolidate.

Anyone who’s seen Gilani crowing since the record turnout for his son in Multan knows what consolidation can look like.

Spin it anyway they like, and the PTI is trying, but voters turned out for status quo options instead of staying home and waiting for PTI salvation at the next election. That really isn’t a place a party hoping to crack the system wants to be in when elections are round the corner.

Anti-corruption and anti-incumbency — which along with the anti-West/War on Terror mantra form the tripod on which Khan has built his electoral strategy — have proved to be exactly the small-bore draws that many thought they would be in the patronage-driven politics of rural Pakistan.

In urban Pakistan, too, some of the sheen has come off. Khan’s core supporter is young, educated and wants change. He or she is Muslim and fervently patriotic, but not quite of the crazy variety.

So the PTI’s linkages to the Difaa-i-Pakistan Council, however nominal, will have some of the little Khanistas running around with face paint on and turning out to swell PTI rallies wondering what exactly is going on.

Support for the Afghan Taliban as noble nationalists fighting off foreign invaders is one thing; cosying up to sectarian monsters running around Pakistan’s cities and towns threatening and killing ordinary Pakistanis is quite another.

And all of this before the internal problems of organisation and contending with the various egos that the PTI has assembled.

So far, the party hasn’t really got anywhere with the nuts and bolts of winning electoral strategies. At the lower rungs,
recruitment of party workers who will help turn out voters on election day and take on funny business at the polling booth and in the counting process hasn’t taken off. The little Khanistas with face paint on aren’t cut out for that business.

At the candidate and leadership level, because Khan has already put on prime ministerial airs and talks about who he will appoint to head which public corporation and which ministry, egos are already being bruised or unwisely inflated. There’s
nothing like the carrot of power and patronage to set off ugly intra-party battles.

And while Khan’s unwillingness to listen to or learn from even senior party members isn’t very different to that of other party leaders, the difference is that Khan really does know less about politics than your average party leader. So the more
experienced in the PTI leadership chafe all the more when their advice is ignored.

All of this doesn’t mean that Khan is guaranteed to slide back into electoral insignificance. A major corruption scandal could yet inject new vigour into the PTI’s anti-corruption mantra and gain fresh traction with the voting public.

The reopening of Nato supply routes will give Khan fresh ammunition to attack the government as American lackeys. And as the predictable infighting in the DPC escalates, it could fade from the national radar well before campaign season begins in earnest.

The Pakistani voter’s mind is forgetful and forgiving and the little Khanistas may cheer up again.

But, whether Khan bounces back or not, the best hope for change he could have offered has already gone. Only to the most optimistic did it ever look like Khan could be propelled to power on the back of popular discontent the next time round.

But his rise did shake the PML-N and unsettle the PPP (Zardari has been candid in private about keeping an eye on the PTI, knowing the complications it could create for the PPP’s projections in KP and south Punjab).

If Khan had seriously talked up matters of policy and sounded a more sophisticated note on the solutions to some of Pakistan’s structural problems, he may — may — have forced some adjustments by the PPP and PML-N in their approach to governance
and policy.

That alone would have been worth more than a few dozen PTI seats in parliament, assuming that power is only a means to an end, not the end itself — admittedly a dangerous assumption in Pakistan.

But Khan has given us none of that. Instead, when Jahangir Tareen presented the PTI’s power policy, he was promptly accused by Humayun Akhtar of stealing his plan. If the PML-Likeminded thinks you’ve copied their ideas — whether true or not — it
doesn’t really bode well on the policy front.

Khan isn’t dead and buried yet and the competition isn’t getting ready to dance on his political grave. But the PTI’s purported rivals, the besieged status quo powers, are closer to paying the ultimate political insult: looking in the PTI’s direction and
shrugging with indifference.

On DawnNews

Comments (68) Closed

Sami-ullah

Mar 18, 2012 07:53am

This article is baised. Yes, PTI will negotiate and talk with all extremists and find a middle ground to resolve the issues. We will not let anyone bomb our territory. We are pro ISI/Military party, I hope we start recruiting ex offciers in our party; they will be great assets to us. We will not bow to anyone in the world. WE are a nationalist party; our aim is to make Pakistan perfect. When the elections come, we will will win in three provinces and form coalition in fourth province. Now dread from us all anti-pakistani people; fear day and night

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Enter your name...

Mar 18, 2012 08:05am

Good article but actualy written with seeing dreams of the fact. Facts r shown more horrible then they are. Pti young and educated supporter is still backed the boycott and all mantras of pti. Actualy critics r taking it seriously what a silent in the air is created by pti. But if it goes on again than the khan will again become a contender in the eyes of journalists. By elections were nthng 2 participate in it and a wide variety of "khanistas" heavily support it. Khan can come back by 23 march in sialkot.

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ghumman

Mar 18, 2012 08:09am

Pathetic analysis. Khan will win with Landslide victory in coming GE

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SZee

Mar 18, 2012 08:31am

Naive in nature, irrelevant and biased article. Complete rubbish. The reality is that by following PTI's footsteps and taking (fake) actions and making (false) noise the other parties have acknowledged the real threat of PTI, which is not based on some artificial/corrupt 'agenda' but rather than the true voice and need of the nation - the people of Pakistan. These cosmetic adjustments of PPP and PML-N before elections do not mean much in the eyes of significant # of Pakistanis. The writer is only seeing what he/she wants to see. The formula to WIN the elections from ground up will receive a BIG shock and new norms will be created....wake up it is already too late.

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Faiza Ghulam Rasool

Mar 18, 2012 09:44am

pro-status quo people will keep on writing this and that, but truth is that his name is Khan and his party stands for change that reflects the aspirations of Pakistanis. Hasan Nisar already said that PTIs decision to boycott elections was prudent because PMLN and PPP would definitely have joined hands. sorry Cyril i don't buy any piece from pro-status quo.

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Baigent Rudman

Mar 18, 2012 10:06am

Imran Khan is the leader who will place Pakistan back into the respected assembly of nation...the World is watching - awaiting the assembly or dismantling of Pakistan.
Use your words and votes with wisdom and care.

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Abid

Mar 18, 2012 10:25am

No wonder "writer is a member of staff". All these Cyril almeida's , Nadeem farooq paracha's , Saleem safis, Talat husseins have one issue and that is to help confuse people about credentials of Imran. I wonder what wrong has he done....is he corrupt? does he violates rule of law? does he have foreign bank accounts holding poors'money? and his american bashing is right in a way as the super power is misusing its power all over the world. Should he close his eye and shut up and adopt the easier political path which all other Pakistan parties are doing. I dont think so.... i am a young Pakistani supporter and i am not crazy. I know where my vote is and inshAllah i'll exercise that option in favour of PTI.

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ali q.

Mar 18, 2012 10:26am

Ignore this one please!

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Dr Zia

Mar 18, 2012 11:09am

Silly analysis. PTI strategy is made in consultation and not by one man IK. was a wate of time reading your column. But one thing that majority of you people do not understand is thtat there is something that is coming from with in and that is the whole Pakistani nation is looking to IK only. no other substitute and this you will witness in the coming general elections and not bye elections with faulty voter lists.

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Amjed Saleem Alvi

Mar 18, 2012 11:40am

Whenever I think of Imran Khan, memories of Air Marshal Asghar Khan crept into my mind. Khan is not made for politics. Alas! a talented person has wasted his energies in that field, invain.

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Mehreen

Mar 18, 2012 12:04pm

I hope all the journalists who are writing abt the end ... will thankfully leave PTI and IK alone and will concentrate on whatever they think is alive and kicking.
Best wishes.

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Muhammad Faizan

Mar 18, 2012 12:23pm

I have never read such a negative and biased analysis ever before. And this comment goes for those coming after me.
p.s The writer needs a life.

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Aamir

Mar 18, 2012 12:50pm

Very well written and correct analysis.

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Lt Col Imtiaz Alam(r

Mar 18, 2012 12:55pm

I have read your analysis. Good ,something are true. The Khan must come off his starched neck & listen to all & sundry. Unfortunately he is not open to suggestions.

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leader

Mar 18, 2012 12:57pm

rhetoric beating the same drum again and again,

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Karachishehar

Mar 18, 2012 01:04pm

The supporters of status quo and corruption can live in their fool's heaven for another year or so, Imran Khan would win big in next elections, Inshallah.

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Iqbal

Mar 18, 2012 01:11pm

If you visit different places in world eg Turkey or UAE or Singapore you will see that people are not rich but are educated , everyone works and there are no political goondas in cities .
The key is reform police and make it independent .

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BALOCH KHAN

Mar 18, 2012 01:26pm

Dear Writer,
Open Up your eyes and watch the reallity...We are with KHAN after all partial Analyst propeganda!!Khan is the Only Hope for PakistaniS...KHAN ZINADABAD

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Ahmed

Mar 18, 2012 01:29pm

Pathetic indeed! You should keep voting for the same corrupt leaders... All the feudal and Waderas must Prevail!!! Bow to you Cyril Almeida!

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zir

Mar 18, 2012 02:28pm

biased!

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Viktor

Mar 18, 2012 02:50pm

Khan has no plan. His voters yourh will sure be sleeping on GE day.better khan do umpiring in cricket.
Good editorial.

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msa

Mar 18, 2012 03:07pm

Imran Khan is not going away. He is the change that is coming as a wave. A new Pakistan will emerge from ashes under leadership of Imran.

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Saad

Mar 18, 2012 03:31pm

A pragmatic analysis. Khan does need to wash off some of the starch!

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MK

Mar 18, 2012 03:59pm

Lets keep the PPP and PML in power. Afterall, these decent honest people need to be kept in power so that we can stay on the path of justice and humanity. Imran you are not needed!

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Taimoor Ashraf

Mar 18, 2012 04:05pm

Irrespective of the fact that the author has been an apologist for Zardari, this should give PTI supporters 1 more reason to work even harder so that they could make the author eat his words post March 2013!

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Amin

Mar 18, 2012 04:25pm

Why is that the likes of you and NFP so hate Khan? or is it the love of PPP that blinds you all to the greatest corruption records in the history of Pakistan but then like I say butter is indeed a precious commodity these days

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Abc

Mar 18, 2012 04:34pm

The likes of you have doubted this man for 15 yrs. he gathered 200000 people in Karachi and Lahore could you hav predicted that in sept 2011? Thus people like you underestimate khan. Why should we believe you now? You have been wrong before. Right now he is doing jalsas in rural Areas which you dont know much bat.

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Ashar

Mar 18, 2012 04:45pm

Does the writer want another 5 year term of PPP? Is the writer really happy with the current affairs of the country?

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Mohsin

Mar 18, 2012 04:41pm

Is he seriously making a case for the corrupt Zardari and Sharif?? I stopped reading after the first paragraph. My answer to Cyril is that if we keep doing more of same why should we expect different result?

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Jk

Mar 18, 2012 04:59pm

I love your sarcasm!

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matin

Mar 18, 2012 05:05pm

Extremely biased comments, please open up your eyes to see the reality as khan is the only hope left with people of pakistan.
bye bye wderas, jagirdars and selfish corrupt political so called leaders.

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Shfiea

Mar 18, 2012 05:25pm

At 23 comments count, only 5 (22%) are against but 18 (78%) are for Khan. You draw your conclusion!

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Azhar Iqbal

Mar 18, 2012 05:57pm

Looks like the writer doesn't know Khan enough to write such a poor analysis. Or has some other agenda? Just wait for the surprise Cyril and keep trying, in vain, to support the current corrupt system.

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Zaid

Mar 18, 2012 06:37pm

Dear Alam Sb,
Who he should speak. To those who has plundered our tax money into foreign banks, raised our local debts from 5 Trillion to above 12 Trillion, high inflation well above two digits, 5 state bank governors, 5 or 6 finance secretary, 5.46 per units electricity to 10.50 per unit now. Currency devaluation from 63 to Rs above 90.
Or may be you are talking about Rai Wind masters, who spent 21 Bn on that road or those who have been gifting laptops... I think list goes on and on... does not stop... So no compromise with these Mafia, power hungry and corrupt elite..

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mani

Mar 18, 2012 06:50pm

After reading all the comments which came from khan Supporters, one thing is sure Khan has to do something great not only from his words or speeches but from his actions as he said in one of his speech that he will end corruption in 90 day. But how, when you people like Jhangir tareen whose name was on top of the list of those people who created sugar crisis in Pakistan. It is amazing that Khan Sahab wants to change the system with the help of those people who supported dictator.

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khalil

Mar 18, 2012 07:00pm

is it that Khan's comments about Talibaan, "Talibaan are no danger to Pakistan - Imran Khan" , triggered off the present propaganda campaign against him by Pro-War lobby?

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Zaid

Mar 18, 2012 07:03pm

Dear Brother
In complete agreement with you. We don't need politics now, we have had enough during last 65 years. Let be among those who serve, I am damn sure, that Mr Khan can serve the country far better than these Corrupt Politicians.

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Ameer

Mar 18, 2012 07:15pm

Poor article by Cyril. Not disappointed though. We need people like him for their actions so that there may be an equal (hopefully unequal) and opposite reaction.
Khan is here to stay; those who think he is down and out: you wish!

If the calibre of the leader can be estimated by the intellect of his average supporter, then by reading the brainless comments to this and other critiques to Imran Khan, the PTI and its leader are sunk.

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Kamran Ahmed

Mar 18, 2012 08:56pm

No, we are not unfortunate, we still have "Sincere Leaders" like Nawaz Sharif, Asif Zardari, Fazlur Rehman, Altaf Hussain, Asfandyar who do listen to suggestions "very carefully."

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Shahab Riazi

Mar 18, 2012 09:18pm

I think its a bit early to start celebrating the demise of Imran. I agree that there are challenges for PTI that may not have been evident before and it remains to be seen how these challenges are handled by the leadership. I think the missteps that are outlined in this article will not have as much of the effect as opposed to if PTI ends up giving election tickets to the wrong people. The writer is discounting the election time fervor that is usually not the case with bye-elections. General elections usually have a wave of enthusiasm that have a seperate effect.

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Pan Mat

Mar 18, 2012 09:19pm

Valid point but your comments begs the question - how is whole Imran Khan thing any different from past politics?
Same lofty promises, same gullible electorates that prefers personalities over agenda, lack of ability to question the agenda, same old ways of establishment laughing at the naivety of people of Pakistan!

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Suhail Zubaid-Ahmad

Mar 18, 2012 09:58pm

After reading this article and pathetic analysis, I remembered this quote from Frank Zappa:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."

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Fatima

Mar 18, 2012 10:38pm

Agree with Cyril that Khan MUST brush up on the PTI's policy front!
I am disappointed to read comments such as, "KHAN is our only hope"! Instead of being played by our fears and political desperation, we should be asking: Why and how Khan should be our HOPE?
Constructive criticism is useful!

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Devendra

Mar 18, 2012 11:16pm

TOUCHE!!! Cyril has the brains to analyse without emotion and tell the truth.
Imran, honest as he may be, is an empty suit. He is a legend in his own mind.
All that said, he might, yet, be a better alternative than zardari and Nawaz.

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Agha Ata

Mar 18, 2012 11:32pm

I agree with this analysis, but lets express our opinions after 23rd of MaRCH.

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peter nicholson

Mar 19, 2012 12:35am

There are very few who have been so courageous a critic of the PPP as Cyril Almeida. I don't mistake his view taken on the state of national politics as a push for the PPP. This article does what they have always done, laid out with courage and honesty what he sees; for me his analyses have been often on the mark, sorry if it smarts to read it.

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shafiq

Mar 19, 2012 12:46am

Recently I am feeling the journalistic wind suddenly blowing against PTI, reasons better known to themselves, 3 months back majority of the journalist waere IK admirers.
Can any reader help me understand this?.

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altaf hussain

Mar 19, 2012 01:13am

I'm agree with writer analysis.

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sam

Mar 19, 2012 01:17am

Do columnists really dont have any other topic to rave about every single month has all of Pakistan's social evils been solved that every week or so a writer just has to criticize Imran Khan.. Here is a thing people need to be competent enough to realize these kind of articles don't change the mindset of IK supporters nor do they give the writer any more credibility. Why drive biased conclusions when you dont know what the end result of Imran Khan and the elections is going to be. If you indeed wish to highlight fact so truly you will find many about our utterly corrupt leaders right now that have actually happened and our proven. Biased journalism is frankly quiet unethical and this article is neither really thought proving or different from anything that has already been said in favour of or against Imran Khan.. Honestly Pakistan has a ton of problems that need highlighting Imran Khan isn't exactly one of them.

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Azi

Mar 19, 2012 01:30am

Imran khan no doubt is a patriotic Pakistani has love for the nation, he should secure more seats to make a difference in the countrys' politics. The writer us clearly taking sides but enjoys.freedom of expression specially he is staff member but hey guy listen out loud Imran khan is a force to reckon with you seem to be defending the present lot and perhaps the usedup tested yet failed N league MQM and ANP character is not hidden from us, then the nation has a BETTER option in KHAN as you choose to call him

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Zeshan

Mar 19, 2012 03:47am

I have heard the PPP led coalition government cry out against the Americans a million times. It's only put up as a show for the public, the reality is that this government does one thing and tells/shows the public a completely opposite and rosy picture. I think Pakistanis are done with this government.

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Kami Butt

Mar 19, 2012 04:13am

The strong opposition of Cyril Almeida from the commentators makes his point of IK’s strong support among the English readers; means IK needs to pay more attention to the rural Pakistani electorats.

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Iqbal Khan

Mar 19, 2012 06:25am

No doubt that the article is biased and badly written. A senior writer like Cyril should be more logical than putting his emotions on paper when most of Pakistanis are tired of old school politicians and trying to find a hope even in hopeless politician like Khan.

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farid ullah khan

Mar 19, 2012 07:36am

Who is this Cyril. Is He is living in the real world?

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Chak

Mar 19, 2012 08:31am

good enough analysis. The negative comments have not pointed out a single point which the writer got wrong (except for maybe that IK 'consults' his party members, but then we all know the truth).
Everyone feels a change is required, but what kind is the question. Is IK really all that different (apart from the rhetoric) from the present leaders? Do his policies really make any sense? does he have any plan? this is all that the writer is asking n checking n does a good work at.

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jalaluddin S. Hussai

Mar 19, 2012 09:11am

Sorry, the column by Cyril is completely biased. Imran Khan deserves vote of the majority of Pakistanis.

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Khaja

Mar 19, 2012 09:21am

One weakness of PTI is its inability to retain workers and second tier leadership. The general trend is every few years they let go rising volunteers and bring in new fresh batch. Which results in perpetual immaturity of the party in internal and external politics.

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Sarah

Mar 19, 2012 03:43pm

I am a part of PTI.The writer has written this without enough knowledge & know-how of what v are doin in PTI.Without information,you cant comment.PTI has been having jalsas in da rural areas since 6 months.Even coming week there are 4 jalsaz in da interior sindh and there will be more in other areas.We are busy with the ground work like mapping Pakistan to see what strong areas are etc to place candidates.and about voter prep....everything is done! Our voter lists are ready and we'll make sure all vote.Also ppl who will stand on da booths are selected and all are ready.Plz give a chance to sum1 whoz truly honest & patriotic & dats evident from whatever he has done so far.Shaukat Khanum & Namal University prove that he really cares 4 da nation.Stop this bias towards the corrupt leaders who support you for writing all this.Think about Pakistan.

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Ghani Khan Niazi

Mar 19, 2012 05:36pm

Problem with 'liberal' journalists including Cyril is that status quo suits them.Zardari regime is epitome of corruption and poorest governance in the history of Pakistan,Karachi in the grip of lawlessness yet PPP government is never under the microscopic analysis by Cyril and other 'liberal' journalists.To vent their frustration, IK is a convenient target.

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Haroon

Mar 19, 2012 08:26pm

I second you.

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Zulfiqar Ansari

Mar 19, 2012 10:11pm

PTI will never win any Seat from Rural Sindh.. Rural Sindh belongs to PPP

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Mustafa Razavi

Mar 20, 2012 06:53am

Oh, we have given plenty of thought to why we love Imran, although it may not agree with your thought. Do we have to agree with you to be thoughtful?

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Karachishehar

Mar 20, 2012 07:05am

Please enlighten us, oh wise one.

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Mohammad Bilal

Mar 20, 2012 06:41pm

A very well written article stating the exact ground realities and facts. Our so called educated lot is a bad victim of hero worship, be it a cricketer, movie star or whatever... Does Khan really has any policy or agenda as he never says any thing concrete except "MUK MUKAA" "NOORA KUSHTI" "TSUNAMI" "PURANAY CHEHRAY" (which in fact make 99.9% of his party as well)"BAARIAN LAGAI HUI" and etc...

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Ismat Wazir

Mar 20, 2012 10:59pm

The Anylasis is is contrary to the popular opinion.People of Pakistan are literally fed up of the prevailing corruption leading to un bearable inflation.You witnessed the Rickshaw driver attempting to commit suicide after being fed up of the police.you saw students burning up the education boards after being fed up of the corruption ,Wapda ,Railway,PIA,Cricket, all departments have only one mission loot and plunder.When is this looting come to An end.The existing politicians have led the country to an anarchy. It doesn't matter if Khan was a cricketer ,he has a vision for this Nation.Pakistan cannot afford to have the plunderers who have stolen the future of our children.

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Bassione

Mar 20, 2012 11:11pm

Mr.Bilal,I don't think you reside in Pakistan,If you do you are need to wake up.