Oil prices have always been big news for shipping and offshore, and are currently making the headlines. Since early October, crude prices have undergone one of the lengthiest periods of steady decline on record. Whilst the steep drops from the heights of $147/bbl in 2008 and $114/bbl in 2014 were clearly more substantial as a whole, the recent downward trend is certainly noteworthy. So what’s going on?

The Middle East Gulf, which laps the shores of several major OPEC countries, holds 32% of the world’s 60 largest offshore oil fields, some of which have been active for 60 years. But though it is a mature area, in 2018 it is still projected to account for 28% and 34% of global offshore oil and gas production, with output having been supported by a large number of expansion, EOR and redevelopment projects.

The Middle East is a key component of global oil production. In total, it accounts for just under 25m bpd of oil output (or 30m bpd including NGLs), of which nearly a quarter is produced offshore. The Middle East also produces 63.5bn cfd of gas (64% offshore). The majority of Middle Eastern producers are OPEC members, so the group’s decisions have a large impact on production volumes in the region.

As recent history demonstrates, if the global oil supply-demand balance moves from a deficit of supply to a surplus, or vice versa, the effect on oil prices and hence the offshore sector can be far reaching. At present, as 2019 draws nearer, oil demand and supply look to be increasingly finely balanced. However, there are still a range of uncertainties that could significantly shift the current oil supply-demand outlook.

On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset of the worst economic downturn for a century. To a shipping industry used to extreme cycles but transitioning to recession with rapid trade collapse and a huge newbuilding orderbook the initial shock was severe and the “hangover” prolonged. This week’s Analysis compares the situation almost ten years to the day.

The container shipping sector derives many of its characteristics from the dual but separate nature of the freight and charter markets, and 2018 so far has seen some distinctly ‘two-tier’ trends in the box shipping space, with freight and charter rates experiencing a clear difference in performance. What has caused that to happen, and how likely is it to be sustained?

In June 2016, the ‘Neo-Panamax’ locks at the Panama Canal opened to commercial traffic, enabling a much larger proportion of the world’s fleet to transit the canal. Nearly two years on, official dimension restrictions at the Neo-Panamax locks are being amended, with an even greater share of the fleet theoretically capable of passing through the canal from 1st June onwards.