Knock on Wood: Nats are Statistical Postseason Lock

WASHINGTON — Cross your fingers, knock on wood or whatever else wards of jinxes–but with a record of 71-49 and 42 games remaining, the Washington Nationals are now a statistical certainty to make the MLB Postseason.

According to the MLB.com Postseason Projections page, the Nats have had a 100 percent certainty of making the postseason since August 5. Included in that is a 99.7 percent chance of winning the NL East, buoyed by a 9.5 game lead over the Miami Marlins, and an 11.5 game lead over the New York Mets.

I think we can say the NL East is pretty much over. If #Nats go 21-21 the rest of the way, Mia needs to go 30-11, Mets 32-9 just to tie.

It helps that the Nats added closer Mark Melancon at the non-waivers trade deadline, providing extra insurance against a September swoon. Over the last two weeks, the team’s winning percentage has remained steady, just south of .600.

This is a trajectory that Washington, and the rest of the division, has been on since June. After the Mets began to unravel in late May, the Nats have held unchallenged reign in the standings. On the other end of the spectrum, MLB has given the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies a zero percent chance of making the playoffs since Opening Day.

On the other end of the spectrum, MLB has given the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies a zero percent chance of making the playoffs since Opening Day.

Looking around the rest of the National League, the Chicago Cubs are the only other team that has reached 100 percent status, as they have enjoyed a wide lead in the Central Division all season. There are no 100 percent chances in the American League, as all four divisions are still too close to call.