Yahoo! Games

Mike Gallagher

NBA Schedule Breakdown

Right on Schedule

Timing is everything and that’s certainly the case in fantasy basketball. Under most circumstances, these factors are out of our control like when Marcin Gortat suffered a Lisfranc injury on Wednesday night. On the other hand, there are some things that fantasy owners can do to help make sure they’re going to be set up for success for the stretch run.

It’s hard to believe, but there are just 5.5 weeks left in the NBA season and some leagues have started their playoffs. Owners need to stay abreast of every issue they can to make sure they have an edge over their competition and the schedule is definitely as issue that can be the difference from getting knocked out and winning a title. It’s with that idea in mind that I spent hours on end researching some key aspects of the schedule to rank the teams from 1-30 the rest of the way starting on Monday. There were four factors to help determine this ranking:

Numbers of games remaining

It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to know the more games that are left on the schedule, the more stats a player can produce. The two teams that play 22 games the rest of the way will have 29.4 percent more stats than those three teams that play 17. For example, Ricky Rubio is averaging 9.7 assists per game over his last 10, so compared to CP3’s 17 games remaining, Rubio’s stats could be more like 12.5 dimes. Obviously, there are only three teams playing 17 games, but Rubio has an excellent chance to lead the NBA in total dimes and steals from this point forward. The number of games left trumps all other factors since it translates to any format.

Games coming in the last two weeks

Every league is different, but most will have the finals and/or semifinals on the weeks starting on April 1 and 8. Those weeks will be against the better owners and have a lot on the line, so NBA teams that have four games in those two aforementioned weeks, get a little more of a boost compared to their three-game counterparts. Unfortunately for Greg Monroe, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith and Nikola Vucevic owners, their teams play just twice on the week of April 8.

Playing on nights with seven or less NBA games

Daily league owners are often put in a jam every Wednesday and Friday with a double-digit number of games on the NBA docket. This means in leagues where there is any sort of depth on the bench, an owner will have to make a decision on which players to start. This situation can be avoided when guys aren’t playing on those hectic nights. A perfect example was Denver this week. The Nuggets had four games and all four were on nights with seven or less games. So picking up guys like Wilson Chandler or Kosta Koufos would likely have given an owner an advantage, especially if owners’ lineups were going to be full on Wednesday and Friday. The number of these games will appear in parenthesis to the right of that corresponding week.

Matchups

Those of you that play fantasy football know that matchups can go a long way. While it’s not that big of a deal in hoops, it’s something that is worth mentioning. The Bobcats in particular are a fantastic matchup. Against frontcourt players, Charlotte allows the most points and blocks on the highest field goal percentage. Conversely, Indiana allows the least amount of points and lowest field goal percentage to frontcourt guys.

There is also a little extra weight added to home and road games. Only the Bulls, Raptors, Suns and Timberwolves shoot better from the field on the road, but teams like the Thunder shoot 3.2 percent better from the field at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Also, players generally shoot worse from the line when they’re away from home. Each team below will have a list of favorable and unfavorable matchups for the rest of the season. A favorable matchup will be teams that allow the highest player efficiency ratings. All of the teams that rank in the top six will be included, but the teams ranking seventh and eighth will be considered as favorable on that team’s home floor. The opposite goes for the unfavorable matchups.

You can follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for analysis as it happens and some relevant stats.

22 games

Knicks- 4(2), 4(1), 4(2), 4(1), 4(1), 2(0)- The Knicks have the best schedule left in the NBA. Not only do they tie the Wolves for the most games left, they are tied for an NBA-high seven games on nights with seven or less games. If you’re on the fence on players like Jason Kidd in standards or Iman Shumpert in deep leagues, their schedules might be enough to push them over the top vs. other players you’re considering.

Timberwolves- 4(0), 4(1), 4(1), 4(1), 4(1), 2(0)- Like the Knicks, the Wolves have a perfect schedule the rest of the way. This piece of information makes the stash of Kevin Love all that much more important and players like J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved could be assets in deeper formats. Andrei Kirilenko should also be owned by anyone looking for an edge down the stretch.

Timing is everything and that’s certainly the case in fantasy basketball. Under most circumstances, these factors are out of our control like when Marcin Gortat suffered a Lisfranc injury on Wednesday night. On the other hand, there are some things that fantasy owners can do to help make sure they’re going to be set up for success for the stretch run.

It’s hard to believe, but there are just 5.5 weeks left in the NBA season and some leagues have started their playoffs. Owners need to stay abreast of every issue they can to make sure they have an edge over their competition and the schedule is definitely as issue that can be the difference from getting knocked out and winning a title. It’s with that idea in mind that I spent hours on end researching some key aspects of the schedule to rank the teams from 1-30 the rest of the way starting on Monday. There were four factors to help determine this ranking:

Numbers of games remaining

It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to know the more games that are left on the schedule, the more stats a player can produce. The two teams that play 22 games the rest of the way will have 29.4 percent more stats than those three teams that play 17. For example, Ricky Rubio is averaging 9.7 assists per game over his last 10, so compared to CP3’s 17 games remaining, Rubio’s stats could be more like 12.5 dimes. Obviously, there are only three teams playing 17 games, but Rubio has an excellent chance to lead the NBA in total dimes and steals from this point forward. The number of games left trumps all other factors since it translates to any format.

Games coming in the last two weeks

Every league is different, but most will have the finals and/or semifinals on the weeks starting on April 1 and 8. Those weeks will be against the better owners and have a lot on the line, so NBA teams that have four games in those two aforementioned weeks, get a little more of a boost compared to their three-game counterparts. Unfortunately for Greg Monroe, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith and Nikola Vucevic owners, their teams play just twice on the week of April 8.

Playing on nights with seven or less NBA games

Daily league owners are often put in a jam every Wednesday and Friday with a double-digit number of games on the NBA docket. This means in leagues where there is any sort of depth on the bench, an owner will have to make a decision on which players to start. This situation can be avoided when guys aren’t playing on those hectic nights. A perfect example was Denver this week. The Nuggets had four games and all four were on nights with seven or less games. So picking up guys like Wilson Chandler or Kosta Koufos would likely have given an owner an advantage, especially if owners’ lineups were going to be full on Wednesday and Friday. The number of these games will appear in parenthesis to the right of that corresponding week.

Matchups

Those of you that play fantasy football know that matchups can go a long way. While it’s not that big of a deal in hoops, it’s something that is worth mentioning. The Bobcats in particular are a fantastic matchup. Against frontcourt players, Charlotte allows the most points and blocks on the highest field goal percentage. Conversely, Indiana allows the least amount of points and lowest field goal percentage to frontcourt guys.

There is also a little extra weight added to home and road games. Only the Bulls, Raptors, Suns and Timberwolves shoot better from the field on the road, but teams like the Thunder shoot 3.2 percent better from the field at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Also, players generally shoot worse from the line when they’re away from home. Each team below will have a list of favorable and unfavorable matchups for the rest of the season. A favorable matchup will be teams that allow the highest player efficiency ratings. All of the teams that rank in the top six will be included, but the teams ranking seventh and eighth will be considered as favorable on that team’s home floor. The opposite goes for the unfavorable matchups.

You can follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for analysis as it happens and some relevant stats.

22 games

Knicks- 4(2), 4(1), 4(2), 4(1), 4(1), 2(0)- The Knicks have the best schedule left in the NBA. Not only do they tie the Wolves for the most games left, they are tied for an NBA-high seven games on nights with seven or less games. If you’re on the fence on players like Jason Kidd in standards or Iman Shumpert in deep leagues, their schedules might be enough to push them over the top vs. other players you’re considering.

Timberwolves- 4(0), 4(1), 4(1), 4(1), 4(1), 2(0)- Like the Knicks, the Wolves have a perfect schedule the rest of the way. This piece of information makes the stash of Kevin Love all that much more important and players like J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved could be assets in deeper formats. Andrei Kirilenko should also be owned by anyone looking for an edge down the stretch.

Bucks- 4(0), 4(1), 3(1), 4(1), 4(1), 2(0)- The Bucks have a great schedule and they have an NBA-high seven favorable matchups. This translates very well to must-start guys like Larry Sanders, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. J.J. Redick also gets a nudge with so many games and it’s hard to believe he may have similar value in Milwaukee compared to his value with Orlando based on the extra games.

Heat- 4(0), 4(0), 4(2), 3(2), 4(0), 2(0)- Miami’s schedule doesn’t have as many favorable matchups as Milwaukee, but getting Charlotte, Cleveland and Orlando twice arguably makes their schedule the easiest for fantasy production. There really isn’t a lot of analysis needed here because LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh would all be starting regardless, but Ray Allen in some standards and Shane Battier in deeper leagues could prove useful. Miami is going to clinch early, but since they didn’t rest their players much last year and had a great result, they’re not likely to rest them this year.

Wizards- 4(1), 4(1), 4(2), 4(2), 3(0), 2(0)- Bradley Beal (ankle) has been cut in some leagues and that is a mistake. The Wizards have a great schedule before the three-game week starting on April 8. Although, they have the most unfavorable matchups in the NBA and none of their favorable ones come at the Verizon Center. John Wall is playing better, too, and the odds are in his favor to be an asset in most formats.

Grizzlies- 4(1), 4(1), 4(1), 4(0), 3(1), 2(0)- Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley all are going to be must-starts. Jerryd Bayless has been productive and is worth holding in some leagues. One random observation is that the Grizzlies have slowed down their pace since Rudy Gay departed, but their offensive efficiency has made a noticeable jump. That just about sums up Rudy Gay right there.

Favorable (4): HOU (3/29), @SAC (4/7), CHA (4/9), @DAL (4/15)

Unfavorable (3): @LAC (3/13), @NYK (3/27), LAC (4/13)

20 games

Mavericks- 4(1), 4(0), 3(2), 4(2), 3(2), 2(0)- Dirk Nowitzki has looked terrific lately and the one-legged jumper is in full effect. O.J. Mayo has also been effective for the Mavs and he should be a valuable asset for points and triples. The Mavs have seven games on lighter nights, so fringe guys like Shawn Marion and Darren Collison could be helpful in the last three weeks of the season for daily leagues.

Blazers- 3(1), 5(2), 3(3), 4(0), 3(0), 2(1)- They are the only team that has a five-game week left on their schedule and they also have a seven games on light nights. All of the Blazers starters should be good to go, but there’s no reason to give a heating-up Meyers Leonard more value as a pickup, unless it’s for the five-gamer. He also sprained his ankle on Friday.

Sixers- 3(2), 4(1), 4(1), 3(1), 4(0), 2(0)- Philly’s schedule is a mixed bag. They have a ton of favorable matchups, but they also have four really bad matchups with Indy twice -- the worst matchup of any team. Jrue Holiday hasn’t put up a big line in a while and is in a shooting slump, but he’s been consistent enough through the course of the season to be considered a PG1 in all formats.

Celtics- 3(1), 4(1), 4(2), 4(0), 3(1), 2(1)- Boston’s offense has been just fine without Rajon Rondo. Even without a real point guard, they still rank 17th in pace over the last 20 games. Although, their offensive efficiency is just 21st in that span. They are going to make the playoffs and only Kevin Garnett may get rest before the last game of the season.

Hawks- 4(0), 4(0), 4(1), 4(1), 2(0), 2(1)- The last full week for the Hawks really hurts. Atlanta only playing two games essentially cuts Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jeff Teague’s values in half. On the bright side, they have a perfect schedule before that two-game dud. They also have a ton of favorable matchups at home and just a couple unfavorable ones in March. The Hawks will help owners get to the finals, but they won’t be very useful in bringing home the Larry O’Brien fantasy trophy.

Bulls- 2(0), 4(2), 3(1), 4(1), 4(2), 2 (0)- The Bulls have a horrible schedule for the next three weeks, but they finish perfect for the final two full weeks. They also have six games on light nights after their upcoming two-game week and their favorable matchups outweigh their unfavorable games. Derrick Rose has to be stashed no matter how annoying it’s been to monitor his strange rehab.

Cavs- 3(1), 3(0), 3(1), 4(0), 4(0), 2(0)- The Cavs are like the Bulls with an ugly schedule for the upcoming three, then finishing strong down the stretch. Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson are going to be extremely start-worthy in standards. Kyrie Irving is one of the most worrisome situations and there is talk of the Cavs shutting him down. All owners can do is hope he stays healthy and if he does, he might be the most valuable point guard in April.

Spurs- 4(3), 3(0), 3(1), 4(2), 3(0), 2(0)- Last year the Spurs had a loaded schedule down the stretch, this year it’s just average. Coach Pop is going to rest his guys no matter what and he doesn’t care much about home-court advantage. The Spurs have a back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday, then they only other one is against Miami on March 31 and at Memphis April 1. The SA vets are never fun to own down the stretch, but the younger guys like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter could provide some nice dividends.

Nets- 3(1), 4(1), 3(0), 3(2), 4(0), 2(0)- The Nets have a boring schedule and only one four-game week in the last three isn’t going to make Brook Lopez and Deron Williams owners feel great about them. Joe Johnson isn’t the type of player owners in standard weekly leagues will be starting on three-game weeks unless he gets extremely hot. The Nets are also ranked last in pace on the season, so they’re not exactly a fantasy factory.

Favorable (3): @DAL (3/20), @CLE (4/3), CHA (4/6)

Unfavorable (3): @LAC (3/23), CHI (4/4), @IND (4/12)

Bobcats- 3(1), 4(1), 3(0), 4(1), 3(1), 2(0)- Ah, those lovable Bobcats. The most enjoyable thing about watching them is the Lady Cats calendar commercial. Kidding aside, Gerald Henderson and Ben Gordon are heating up and they could be useful on the week of April 1.

Favorable (2): ORL (3/27), CLE (4/17)

Unfavorable (4): @MIA (3/24), @NYK (3/29), MIA (4/5), @MEM (4/9)

Thunder- 4(1), 4(1), 3(0), 3(1), 3(1), 2(0)- OKC going 3-3-3 to close out the year really stings especially since those owners with Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka or Kevin Durant are probably in the fantasy playoffs because all three have been outstanding. Scott Brooks probably cares about home-court advantage more than most playoff-bound coaches, so KD and Co. aren’t likely to get rest except for maybe the finale.

Pacers- 3(1), 4(2), 4(2), 3(1), 3(0), 2(1)- They have a nice schedule before the semifinal and championship weeks with back-to-back four-game weeks with two games on light nights each. The good news is that they play a lot of up-tempo teams, so that might help alleviate the weak finish to the season. Danny Granger probably won’t get 26 minutes any time soon, so plan accordingly.

Suns- 4(2), 4(0), 3(1), 3(0), 3(1), 2(0)- The Suns are a complete mess and they rolled out a brand new starting lineup with Wes Johnson at shooting guard, Marcus Morris at small forward, Markieff Morris at power forward and Luis Scola sliding over to center on Friday. Their schedule is terrible after the eight games in the next two weeks, so getting attached to picking up any of those aforementioned guys doesn’t add up.

Jazz- 3(2), 4(0), 4(1), 4(0), 2(0), 2(0)- On a non-fantasy note, the Jazz have a really tough schedule. They get to travel to Western Conference playoff teams Oklahoma City, Memphis and Houston. Utah will have a very tough time keeping the Lakers and/or the Blazers from leapfrogging them. Changing gears back to fantasy, that two-game week for the finals really stinks. If there’s a Jazz player you’re on the fence to cut, they shouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt.

Favorable (3): @HOU (3/20), @DAL (3/24), POR (4/1)

Unfavorable (4): @OKC (3/13), MEM (3/16), @SA (3/22), @MEM (4/17)

18 games

Nuggets- 3(1), 4(3), 3(1), 3(2), 3(0), 2(0)- The 18-game schedules aren’t fun and it’s too bad for the Nuggets. Over the last 20 games, they lead the NBA in pace and they’re absolutely crushing the rest of the league in points off turnovers and points in the paint. Ty Lawson is ballin’, but the weak schedule is going to offset it a tad. If you’ve been keeping someone like Kosta Koufos on the end of your bench, his schedule might be a back-breaker for you.

Favorable: SAC (3/23), DAL (4/4), HOU (4/6), @DAL (4/12), POR (3/14)

Unfavorable: MEM (3/15), @CHI (3/18), @OKC (3/19), @SA (3/27)

Lakers- 4(0), 2(0), 4(2), 3(1), 4(0), 1(0) – Kobe Bryant’s slump isn’t just over. Well, it’s over. In his last 10 games he’s averaged 32.2 points and 7.3 assists on 53.9 percent shooting. The Lakers have just one game in that half week that starts on April 15, so Laker players won’t be fun in leagues that go to the last day of the season.

Raptors- 3(0), 3(0), 3(1), 4(1), 3(0), 2(1)- The Raptors schedule is one of the worst and only having one four-game week isn’t going to help the case for potential pickups like Jonas Valanciunas and Alan Anderson in the wake of the Andrea Bargnani elbow injury.

Hornets- 3(0), 3(0), 4(2), 3(0), 4(0), 1(0)- New Orleans was ranked dead last in pace all year, but they’ve picked it up lately and are now ranked 29th. Whoo! Greivis Vasquez is leading the league in assists and even the short schedule shouldn’t prevent him from retaining the title, but he isn’t likely to lead the league from this day forward. Eric Gordon is playing well, but he has to be considered as a shutdown candidate. Robin Lopez also gets knocked down a peg for a sub-par sked.

Favorable (4): CLE (3/31), @SAC (4/10), DAL (4/14), @DAL (4/17)

Unfavorable (4): MEM (3/22), LAC (3/27), MIA (3/29), LAC (4/12)

Warriors- 4(1), 3(1), 3(1), 3(0), 3(1), 2(0)- After this week, the Warriors have one of the worst schedules in the league. They are the only team that won’t have a four-game week from March 18 and on, so guys like Harrison Barnes and Carl Landry are pretty much useless. What’s more, they only have three games on light nights in that stretch. Andrew Bogut and Jarrett Jack also move to the fringe area with their scheduling disadvantage.

Favorable (4): @HOU (3/17), LAL (3/25), SAC (3/27), POR (3/30)

Unfavorable (2): CHI (3/15), @SA (3/20)

Magic- 3(0), 3(1), 4(1), 4(0), 2(1), 2(0)- Orlando has been a hot topic for those that like to explore the waiver wire on a daily basis, guys like Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless aren’t going to prove their worth over the next two weeks. However, they do have back-to-back four-game weeks after that stretch before finishing on an ugly two-gamer. The Magic are tied for the most unfavorable matchups, as well. To be clear, Tobias is still a must-own player.

Clippers- 2(0), 3(2), 4(1), 3(0), 3(1), 2(1)- While nobody will argue that Chris Paul has first-round value, he’s probably not going to be a top-five PG the rest of the way. If they clinch early, the Clippers will likely rest Paul, too. He’s obviously still a must-start guy even in a three-game week. As for the center spot, there really isn’t much of a reason to own DeAndre Jordan in standard leagues.

Kings- 2(0), 4(3), 3(1), 3(0), 3(0), 2(0)- Marcus Thornton has become red hot and he’s as must-own as they come right now. The Kings do have a sweet week starting on March 18 with four games, three of which are on light nights. Sacramento is moving the ball much better on offense, but the schedule makers didn't do their fantasy owners any favors here.

Pistons- 3(2), 3(1), 3(2), 4(1), 2(0), 2(0)- Not only do the Pistons have only 17 games left, they also end the season on a two-game week. The good news is that they have six games on lighter nights before that dreadful ending, so Brandon Knight could be helpful in daily leagues.