Weather Blog: Possible Record Warmth, Then Snow

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! Huge temperatures swings and several precipitation chances highlight the forecast this week. In today's blog we discuss possible record warmth, thunderstorms, and a chance of snow before a 40+ degree temperature plunge.

Let's start with a quick mention of the precipitation possibilities for Monday night and Tuesday morning. A warm front lifting to the north will produce an area of precipitation. This may be in the form of a brief period of freezing rain between 11pm-2am, primarily for inland locations. This should not case huge issues since temperatures will be rising to around 40 by morning.

If any spots develop they would likely only persist until 2-4am Tuesday. The freezing rain will give way to plain rain and thunderstorms by 2-3am as temperatures start to climb.

As a warm front lifts north of southeast Wisconsin on Tuesday, temperatures will soar into the 50s by afternoon and evening. The RPM forecast temperature map shown below has temperatures in the mid-50s by late afternoon or evening. The record high for Milwaukee on Tuesday(1/29) is 56 set in 1914. Right now the forecast high for Milwaukee is 56. A record high is possible on Tuesday!

Along with the possible record warmth is a chance of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. The front will near the area by late afternoon or evening. The RPM computer model forecast below has thunderstorms around the area by 4pm. Anytime from 3-8pm showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

The ingredients are in place for severe weather across parts of the Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley. Right now it appears that the severe weather would miss southeast Wisconsin to the south. We will keep a very close eye on this, because a slight shift to the north may bring a strong storm into our area.

The Storm Prediction Center convective outlook is shown below. The areas in yellow have a slight risk of seeing severe weather(hail, damaging winds, tornadoes) on Tuesday. The green shaded area is where thunderstorms are possible, which includes southeast Wisconsin.

After a spring-like day Tuesday, a cold front will sweep across Wisconsin from Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. By Wednesday morning moisture riding along the front may produce a wintry mix or snow in far southeast Wisconsin. This snow may accumulate, so we will keep close tabs on the exact position of the front.

Wednesday will also bring sharply colder temperatures to the region with afternoon readings in the teens and 20s! By Thursday, highs will only reach the low to mid teens! A 40+ degree temperature drop from Tuesday!

With so many changes and variables in the forecast make sure to check back in the coming days for new information here in the Weather Watch 12 Blog.

For the latest weather information watch WISN 12 News, and for updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather

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