Current Findings

The Winthrop Poll surveyed 1,109 residents in South Carolina by landline and cell
phones between Feb. 21 and March 1. Of those interviewed, 44.5% were reached
via cell phone. The poll has a margin of error of approximately +/- 3% at the 95%
confidence level.

When asked about the attention the
Palmetto State receives from its first-in-the-South primaries leading up to the
presidential election, respondents said they liked it. Quizzed about whether
the primaries have a positive or negative effect concerning economic impact and
national media attention, around 70% of respondents said it was somewhat or
very positive.

Six in ten South Carolinians, including nearly two-thirds of registered voters, say U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham should not run for president, according to Winthrop Poll respondents.The senior senator from S.C. is exploring a White House run in 2016. His approval rating stands at 45.5% among all poll respondents, 46.5% among registered voters and 60.3% among GOP and leaners, according to calls made last week.

GUN OWNERSHIP AND GAS TAX OPINIONS

This spring, legislators are debating bills that toughen South
Carolina's domestic violence laws, creating a tiered system of offenses,
increasing penalties and barring batterers from possessing guns. The state – one of the deadliest
in the country for women - currently ranks second in the nation for the rate of
women killed by men.

Winthrop Poll callers told respondents that federal law forbids
those convicted of criminal domestic violence from owning guns. However there
is not consistent enforcement across all states. When asked if legislators
should pass a law to ensure full enforcement of the federal law here in South
Carolina, three-fourths of respondents said yes.

On another piece of S.C. legislation, respondents were
asked if they would be willing to pay 10 cents a gallon more for gas so the
money raised would be used for infrastructure, such as repairing roads and
bridges. This would increase the cost of gas in S.C., but it would still remain
lower than in Georgia and North Carolina. Fifty-five percent of respondents
said they would support this proposal.

ECONOMY

The direction of the nation still has
many concerned. More than two-thirds of South Carolina residents said our
nation is headed in the wrong direction.

They are more positive about the Palmetto State’s
path, with 52% saying the state’s current direction is good. They see the
national economy as getting better (51.2%) and South Carolina’s economy getting
better (63.3%).

News in the Middle East is another area of concern.
ISIS or terrorism in general is the most important problem they said for
the country, followed by politicians/government and the economy/financial
crisis. In South Carolina, the most important problem is education, followed by
jobs/unemployment and the economy/financial crisis.

Regarding their own financial situation,
55.7% of respondents rate their household’s experience as either good or
excellent, and a majority said it is getting better.

HEALTH AND MARRIAGE

There is currently a proposal before the General Assembly to allow the health
department to offer the HPV vaccine to female students entering the seventh
grade. The Department of Health and Environmental Control would also develop a
brochure, which could be handed out at schools, to explain the link between HPV
and cervical cancer. The legislation does NOT require girls to get the vaccine
in order to attend school. A little more than two-thirds of the respondents
said they would support the proposal.

More than half of respondents (52.7%) said they think
marriages between same-sex couples should not be recognized by the law as
valid. The percent of all respondents who feel same-sex marriages should be
valid – 42.8% – is nearly identical to the percent in South Carolina who felt
same-sex marriages should be valid in 2013 when accounting for the margin of
error for both polls. An October 2013 Winthrop Poll of the general
population found that 38.5% felt same-sex marriages should be valid and 52.2%
felt that same-sex marriages should not be valid.

POLITICAL PARTIES AND LEADERS

President Barack Obama’s approval
rating in South Carolina
continues to remain low at around 40% and lags behind national approval for
Obama which is around 50%. Meanwhile, Congress’ approval rating also remains low at 14.9%, a figure that is a
little lower than the national opinion of Congress. Approval ratings of leaders in South
Carolina:• Governor Nikki Haley - 53.2% among S.C.
residents, 56.2% among registered voters, 78.4% among GOP and leaners.
• S.C. State Legislature - 41% among S.C. residents and 41.9% among registered
voters.
• U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. - 53.6% among S.C. residents, 57.5% among
registered voters and 71% among GOP and leaners.

Tea Party membership is claimed by only 7.1% of those surveyed and
11.4% of GOP and leaners. Only 22.1% of respondents and 38.8% of GOP and
leaners respondents approve of the movement. Nearly half are either unsure or don't feel that they have enough
information to form an opinion.

T1
Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Barack Obama is handling his
job as President of the United States?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Approve

40.8

40.1

Disapprove

52.0

54.6

Don’t Know

6.1

4.0

Refused

1.1

1.3

T2
Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Congress is handling its job?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Approve

14.9

13.6

Disapprove

76.7

79.8

Don’t Know

7.6

6.0

Refused

0.9

0.5

T3 Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Nikki Haley is handling her job as Governor of South Carolina?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP and Leaners

Approve

53.2

56.2

78.4

Disapprove

37.1

36.2

15.8

Don’t Know

8.9

6.8

5.8

Refused

0.8

0.8

T4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the
South Carolina State Legislature is handling its job?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Approve

41.0

41.9

Disapprove

39.3

41.4

Don’t Know

17.5

14.6

Refused

2.2

2.1

T5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lindsey
Graham is handling his
job as a United States Senator for South Carolina?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP and Leaners

Approve

45.5

46.5

60.3

Disapprove

41.6

42.7

29.4

Don’t Know

10.9

9.1

9.0

Refused

2.0

1.7

1.3

T6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim
Scott is handling his job
as a United States Senator for South Carolina?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP and Leaners

Approve

53.6

57.5

71.0

Disapprove

22.4

23.7

9.5

Don’t Know

21.2

16.2

18.2

Refused

2.8

2.6

1.3

T7
Thinking about the current path
that our nation is taking, do you think our country
is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?

All Respondents

Right Track

26.1

Wrong Direction

67.4

Don’t Know/ Refused

6.5

T8
Thinking about the current path
that the state of South Carolina is taking, do you think South Carolina
is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?

All Respondents

Right Track

52.0

Wrong Direction

39.8

Don’t Know/ Refused

8.2

T9
What do you think is the most
important problem facing the United
States of America today? (Top 3 responses)

All Respondents

ISIS/Terrorism (in general)

10.3

Politicians/Government

9.2

Economy/Economic-Financial Crisis

9.0

T10 What do you
think is the most important problem facing the state of South Carolina today?

All Respondents

Education

17.9

Jobs or Unemployment

12.9

Economy/Economic-Financial Crisis

9.4

T11 How would you rate the condition of the economy of the
country as a whole these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad,
or very bad?

All Respondents

Very Good

4.1

Fairly Good

51.9

Fairly Bad

29.3

Very Bad

13.4

Not Sure

1.3

Refused

0.1

T12 Right now, do you think that economic conditions in
the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

All Respondents

Getting Better

51.2

Getting Worse

40.5

Not Sure

6.8

Refused

1.4

T13
How would you rate the condition
of the economy of South Carolina these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad,
or very bad?

All Respondents

Very Good

6.7

Fairly Good

59.7

Fairly Bad

25.3

Very Bad

6.2

Not Sure

2.1

Refused

0.1

T14
Right now, do you think that
economic conditions in South Carolina are getting better or getting worse?

All Respondents

Getting Better

63.3

Getting Worse

28.4

Not Sure

6.9

Refused

1.4

T15
How would you rate your
financial situation today? As excellent, good, only fair, or poor

All Respondents

Excellent

10.5

Good

45.2

Only Fair

31.1

Poor

11.7

Not Sure

0.9

Refused

0.6

T16
Right now, do you think that your
financial situation as a whole is getting better or getting worse?

All Respondents

Getting Better

61.4

Getting Worse

27.8

Not Sure

9.2

Refused

1.6

T17
Currently federal law forbids
people who have been convicted of criminal domestic violence from owning guns.
However, there is no mechanism in this law which ensures consistent enforcement
across all states. Do you think the South Carolina Legislature SHOULD or should
NOT pass a law to ensure full enforcement of this federal law in the state of
South Carolina.

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Should

74.0

75.2

Should NOT

19.5

18.9

Not Sure [volunteered]

4.5

3.8

Refused

2.0

2.0

T18 In the
primary elections leading up to a presidential election, South Carolina
generally holds the First in the South presidential primary for both
Republicans and Democrats…

[NOTE: after this introduction,
the following two questions were rotated]

In
terms of economic impact on the state, do you view South Carolina holding the First in the
South presidential primary as positive or negative for the state?

….
do you feel that way “very” or “somewhat”

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Very Positive

24.6

26.4

Somewhat Positive

46.1

46.6

Neither Positive nor Negative [volunteered]

5.1

4.8

Somewhat Negative

10.4

10.4

Very Negative

4.3

4.3

Not Sure

7.6

6.0

Refused

1.8

1.6

In terms of national
media attention and focus on the state,
do you view South Carolina holding the First in the South presidential primary
as positive or negative for the state?

….
do you feel that way “very” or “somewhat”

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Very Positive

28.0

30.7

Somewhat Positive

41.4

40.4

Neither Positive nor Negative [volunteered]

4.3

3.5

Somewhat Negative

12.7

13.3

Very Negative

6.3

6.5

Not Sure

5.4

4.0

Refused

1.8

1.6

T19 South
Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham says he is "testing the waters" for a
possible presidential run. Do you think Lindsey Graham SHOULD or should NOT run
for president in 2016?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP and Leaners

Should

28.1

26.0

34.0

Should NOT

60.2

65.3

56.5

Not Sure [volunteered]

9.4

7.1

8.2

Refused

2.2

1.6

1.3

T20
There is currently a
proposal in the South Carolina Legislature to increase the state gas tax by up
to 10 cents a gallon. This would increase the cost of gas in the state,
but a gallon of gas in South Carolina would still be cheaper than a gallon of gas in North Carolina
or Georgia. The money raised would be restricted to use for infrastructure,
such as repairing roads and bridges.

Would you support or oppose this proposal?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Support

55.4

56.6

Oppose

41.7

41.2

Not Sure

2.3

1.6

Refused

0.5

0.6

NOTE: This question gave an accurate
portrayal of the proposal (how much of an increase and the fact that the money
is restricted) AND full context (the cost of gas WILL RISE, but SC gas would
still be cheaper than NC gas). The
reason for doing it this way was because of the incredible variability in
responses to gas tax questions that were asked of LIKELY VOTERS in October
2014. A basic question
to LIKELY VOTERS in 2014 offering a “pro” argument and a “con” argument
(rotated), but no context, showed 43.5% who favored the gas tax and 52.3% who
opposed. A following question in that
poll that asked about a gas tax where SC gas would still be cheaper than gas in
NC and GA showed 51.5% who favored the gas tax and 42.2% who opposed. In the same poll, only 32.5% favored and
60.7% opposed if the cost of SC gas increased to be equal to the cost of gas in
NC and GA. Finally, in the same poll,
questions that added ANY specific dollar (cents) amount showed support only
between 34 and 36%.

Therefore, this question has full context with two things that proved to decrease
support in the past (an actual dollar [cents] amount and the restatement that
the cost of gas would RISE) and two things that proved to increase support in
the past (money restricted to infrastructure and gas still cheaper than NC and
GA). A balanced question with full
context.

T21 There is currently a proposal in the South Carolina legislature
to allow the SC Department of Health and Environmental Control to offer the HPV
vaccine to female students entering the 7th
grade. The Department would also develop
a brochure, which could be handed out at schools, explaining the link between
HPV and cervical cancer in women. This proposal would NOT require girls to have the vaccine in order to attend
school.

Would you support or oppose this proposal?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Support

67.7

67.5

Oppose

23.7

24.7

Not Sure

6.8

6.3

Refused

1.8

1.5

T22
Do you think marriages between
same-sex couples SHOULD or should NOT be recognized by the law as valid, with
the same rights as a marriage between a man and a woman?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

Should be valid

42.8

39.6

Should not be valid

52.7

55.8

Not Sure

2.2

2.1

Refused to answer

2.4

2.5

NOTE: the percent of all
respondents who feel same-sex marriages should be valid is nearly identical to
the percent in SC who felt same-sex marriages should be valid in 2013 when the margin of error for both polls is taken into account. An October 2013 Winthrop Poll of the general
population found that 38.5% felt same-sex marriages should be valid and 52.2%
felt that same-sex marriages should not be valid.

T23 In
general, would you say you approve or disapprove of the Tea
Party movement or are you not familiar enough
with the Tea Party movement to have an opinion?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP and Leaners

Approve

22.1

25.1

38.8

Disapprove

27.9

32.6

14.6

Not Sure OR Not familiar enough to have opinion

48.4

40.8

45.5

Refused

1.5

1.4

1.0

T24 Would
you consider yourself a MEMBER of
the Tea Party Movement?

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP and Leaners

Yes

7.1

8.5

11.4

No

85.7

86.4

80.9

Not Sure

5.9

4.3

7.3

Refused

1.3

0.8

0.4

Note: According to the latest American
Community Survey done by the United States Census Bureau, there are 3,695,726
adults (i.e. individuals aged 18 and older) in SC. The 7.1% figure among all respondents
translates to roughly 262,000 people.

T25
As of January 1, 2015, twenty nine
states and the District of Columbia have minimum wages above the federal
minimum wage. Do you think the state of
South Carolina SHOULD or should NOT pass a law increasing the minimum wage
above the federally mandated minimum.

All Respondents

Registered Voters

GOP & Leaners

Dem & Leaners

Should

68.0

66.2

48.6

89.8

Should NOT

29.0

30.8

48.3

9.0

Not Sure [volunteered]

2.5

2.3

3.1

0.9

Refused

0.6

0.7

0.0

0.3

Male

Female

White

Black

Should

58.9

76.3

60.3

86.0

Should NOT

39.1

19.5

35.9

13.0

Not Sure [volunteered]

1.8

3.2

3.3

0.3

Refused

0.2

1.0

0.5

0.7

Age 18-24

Age 25-44

Age 45-64

Age 65+

Should

74.7

68.5

69.8

58.2

Should NOT

23.3

28.7

27.8

37.1

Not Sure [volunteered]

2.0

1.9

1.9

4.3

Refused

0.0

0.8

0.5

0.4

Partisan Breakdown in SC (Independents who report that they "Lean" towards a party are included with that party)

The Winthrop Poll is paid for by Winthrop University with additional support from The West Forum on Politics and Policy at Winthrop University.

For additional information, or to set up an interview with Dr. Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404.

Note:Winthrop University, located in Rock Hill, S.C., is a nationally recognized public university offering graduate and undergraduate degrees to an inclusive, international student body.XSLT:http://www.winthrop.edu/WorkArea/ContentDesigner/ContentOutGoing.xslt