Wednesday, November 11, 2015

With Seven Top Feeder Races Analyzed...

I was fully expecting to see the cutoff go down again after Baystate just because the total qualifiers were again down. However, part of what impacts the cutoff is (a) size of the last race analyzed (so, smaller race, would expect less movement in the projection), (b) the margins - i.e. where the qualifiers land in the distribution of margin in seconds under the standard.

Here are the age group totals, year over year:

AG

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

% Qualifiers

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

% Qualifiers

F18-34

1380

15492

8.91%

1254

13865

9.04%

F35-39

633

5490

11.53%

594

5208

11.41%

F40-44

531

4745

11.19%

514

4311

11.92%

F45-49

496

3083

16.09%

476

3071

15.50%

F50-54

275

1922

14.31%

306

1933

15.83%

F55-59

150

986

15.21%

133

896

14.84%

F60-64

70

400

17.50%

66

408

16.18%

F65-69

23

133

17.29%

29

145

20.00%

F70-74

5

37

13.51%

3

38

7.89%

F75-79

0

11

0.00%

1

8

12.50%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

M18-34

1196

13350

8.96%

1013

11790

8.59%

M35-39

552

6135

9.00%

528

5658

9.33%

M40-44

609

6061

10.05%

556

5544

10.03%

M45-49

699

4748

14.72%

613

4499

13.63%

M50-54

560

3631

15.42%

474

3392

13.97%

M55-59

349

2310

15.11%

306

2196

13.93%

M60-64

207

1143

18.11%

187

1126

16.61%

M65-59

54

310

17.42%

43

312

13.78%

M65-69

32

143

22.38%

28

129

21.71%

M70-74

32

171

18.71%

24

162

14.81%

M75-79

5

47

10.64%

8

42

19.05%

M80+

0

8

0.00%

2

14

14.29%

Totals

7858

70356

11.17%

7158

64748

11.06%

Rate of qualification hasn't changed too much with Baystate results. Down 1.02% year-over-year. Total qualifiers is down 8.91%.

Here is the margin breakdown:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

478

6.08%

395

5.52%

1-2 minutes

479

6.10%

405

5.66%

2-3 minutes

447

5.69%

378

5.28%

3-4 minutes

400

5.09%

385

5.38%

4-5 minutes

376

4.78%

298

4.16%

5-10 minutes

1662

21.15%

1479

20.66%

10-20 minutes

2039

25.95%

1946

27.19%

20> minutes

1977

25.16%

1872

26.15%

Totals

7858

7158

The Squeaker Pack, 7 races in, for 2015 is 26%. This is down from 27.74% in 2014, again following the trend of qualifiers having 5 minutes or more of wiggle room.

What does this mean for the prediction?

In the 7 races analyzed thus far, the number of runners achieving 147+ seconds of margin in 2014 was 6687. Taking the qualifiers we have for these 7 races in 2015, sorting on margin descending, the 6687th qualifier has a margin of...

71 seconds or 1 minutes 11 seconds

For Baystate, in 2014 there was a large group of folks in the 2-3 minute margin range. 9.21% compared to 2015 at 6.21%. The total qualifiers in 2014 with margin of 2 minutes and more was 86.2%, while in 2015 this number was 85.5%. So in 2014, when looking for folks with 147 seconds or better, more Baystate qualifiers were shifted in the 2+ range. This results in a higher number of qualifiers in 2014 than if the margin data had looked more like 2015. This shows how the distribution of margin of qualification can impact the overall prediction cutoff. It also may not provide the most accurate view because, just looking at the raw numbers, the qualifiers in Baystate were down by 31 or 8.4%. But instead what we see is actually an increase in the cutoff prediction.

1 comment:

I'm not too surprised by the new cutoff prediction as in addition to the factors you already mentioned I'd contend that the downward pressure of the Baystate numbers is only downward relative to last year's 2:28, and not necessarily downward from 1:10 (e.g. while total qualifiers in Baystate were down by 8.4% total qualifiers in the other 6 races in the analysis were down by 8.9%, so looking at these numbers Baystate more or less confirmed the 1:10 prediction, maybe marginal upward pressure even?).Not sure my thinking isn't flawed though!