Chart Signals: Indices and resource Dollars rally as USD breaks down

05:55, 29 June 2017
· By Colin Cieszynski

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We’ve seen a number of big moves and intraday reversals today. Indices and EUR shrugged off early weakness and have been rallying in the last few hours. A big breakdown for the US Dollar mirrors big gains for a number of other major currencies today including AUD, CAD and GBP.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 is climbing within a 5,675 to 5,785 trading range, holding neckline support of a head and shoulders pattern. Initial support moves up toward 5,740 with next resistance near 5,810 then 5,840. Rising RSI indicates increasing upward momentum.

Hong Kong 50 has bounced up off of a higher low near 25,620 and regained 25,750, advancing on 25,875. RSI climbing back above 50 indicates momentum swinging upward. Next potential resistance near 25,900 and 26,000.

North American and European Indices

US 30 has rallied up off of 21,300 toward 21,490 forming a bullish engulfing candle. The index appears close to calling off an Evening Star but would need to retake 21,555 to complete it.

US SPX 500 held 2,415 and 50 on the RSI to confirm underlying accumulation remains intact and has turned back upward with a Bullish Engulfing day indicating renewed interest. The index has rallied back up toward 2,445 with next resistance near 2,455.

US NDAQ 100 has staged a big bounce up off of 5,635 toward 5,765, but it needs to retake 5,800 its previous to indicate this as more than just an upward correction. RSI bouncing back above 50 indicates momentum swinging back upward. Next resistance near 5,845.

UK 100 continues to bounce around between 7,400 and 7,455 testing the neckline of a head and shoulders top which is holding so far. RSI between 40 and 60 indicates a neutral trend. Next downside support between 7,350 and 7,375 with next resistance near 7,500.

Germany 30 broke down today, taking out 12,705 causing an uptrend to fail, then testing it as resistance after testing support at its 50-day average near 12,600. RSI unable to regain 50 confirms continuing distribution. Next potential support in the 12,475 to 12,500 area.

Commodities

Gold is still stabilizing between its 200 and 50-day averages trading between $1,236 and $1,255. RSI has bottomed indicating downward pressure is easing but needs to regain 50 to signal an upturn.

WTI crude oil continues to steadily recover, with support moving up toward $43.50 and the price advancing on $44.70 a 23% retracement of the recent downtrend. RSI rising toward 50 indicates downward pressure fading and an upturn pending. Next potential resistance appears near $45.00 then $45.60 a 38% retracement. Next support in a downturn near $43.10 then $42.60.

FX

US Dollar Index remains in breakdown mode, retesting 96.20 as new resistance and falling toward 95.75. Next potential support appears near 95.00 where a measured move and round number converge. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward momentum.

EURUSD remains in an uptrend, shrugging off a selloff down from $1.1380 toward $1.1290 then bouncing all the way back to confirm continued accumulation. Next potential resistance appears near $1.1380 then a measured $1.1460.

GBPUSD continues to climb, advancing on $1.2925 having retested $1.2790 where it called off a head and shoulders top, as new support and blasting through $1.2865 its 50-day average. Next resistance tests appear near $2950 then $1.3000 and $1.3040. RSI back above 50 confirms momentum turning back upward.

NZDUSD is taking another run at $0.7300 resistance after establishing support at a higher low near $0.7250. Next resistance on trend appears near $0.7340 then $0.7380. RSI steady just under 70 indicates a pause underway within a bigger uptrend.

AUDUSD is breaking out today, clearing the top of a $0.7530 to $0.7620 trading range. Rsiing RSI confirms increasing upward momentum. Next potential resistance appears near $0.7680 then a measured $0.7710

USDSGD appears to be resuming its primary downtrend with the RSI rolling back under 50 and the pair dropping from $1.3880 toward $1.3820. Next potential support near $1.3775 then $1.3710.

USDJPY is consolidating Tuesday’s breakout over 111.80 having retested it as new support and trading between there and 112.40 most recently hovering near 112.15 a Fibonacci level. Next resistance possible near 113.00.

GBPJPY is breaking out today, clearing its 50-day average and a Fibonacci level near 143.30 then driving on toward a test of 145.10. Next resistance appears near 145.50 then 147.90. Support moves up toward 144.80 from 144.00.

EURJPY remains in an uptrend, successfully retesting its 126.00 breakout point and shrugging off a drop from 127.60 toward 126.50 by rallying back up toward 127.90. Next potential resistance near a measured 128.50. RSI getting overbought again indicates potential for a pause at some point.

USDCAD has confirmed the break of a year-long uptrend line by retesting the $1.3180 breakdown point as new resistance and then accelerating downward toward $1.3030. Next potential support appears between $1.2985 a Fibonacci level and the $1.3000 round number with initial resistance dropping toward $1.3050 from $1.3100. Falling RSI confirms increasing downward pressure.

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