September 23, 2013

Don't get the tactics wrong on fighting Obamacare!

I'm a fan of Senator Ted Cruz. He legitimately gets the problems with Obamacare (among other things) and he genuinely seems to want to do something about it. He's taking bold steps that others in the GOP seem to be shying away from doing (in fact, some in the GOP seem ready to torpedo Cruz at any opportunity). The problem in this case is that those bold steps might not be the right steps to take.

This week will be crucial for Ted Cruz’ future, according to Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan at the Washington Post, with the fate of ObamaCare, the debt ceiling, and continued funding for the government at stake. It doesn’t depend on victory so much as it does to his impact on opposition to ObamaCare...

He’s going into the week with considerable headwinds on this effort, at least according to a new poll out by CNBC. Respondents lean against defunding ObamaCare at all — and a wide majority opposes a government shutdown to force it, 59% to just 19% supporting it.

That's where the at-all-costs mentality that seems too prevalent in the Tea Party and perhaps their darling candidate take the strategy off the rails. The tactics to stop Obamacare are part of a larger strategy - to stop the government from being over-controlling and from over-spending (particularly on half-baked ideas).

Flying in the face of public sentiment on defunding Obamacare and shutting down government might win the battle, but could ultimately lose the war. In 1996 when the GOP shut down the government they blew away the advantages gained by their miraculous takeover of the House in 1994 with the Republican Revolution. It didn't cause their gains to collapse overnight but it had a lasting effect. With Hillary on the horizon for 2016, getting Obamacare defunded at a cost of public opinion risks, indeed practically mandates a Clinton victory in 2016 and a return to re-funding Obamcare, even though the public opinion on Obamacare itself does not align with the public's opinion on how not to address it.

The solution, is not readily evident, but High Noon is not the answer. Layering issues together is not necessarily the answer either. The real political war is not defunding Obamacare it's winning the House, Senate and White House in the next 4 years. At that point defunding won't be necessary, just pulling the plug will be possible.