Predictions: Manny Pacquiao vs. Jessie Vargas

In preparation for Top Rank’s self-distributed pay-per-view event headlined by Manny Pacquiao and Jessie Vargas on November 5th, I’ve decided to give my predictions on the bouts featured on the main card.

Zou Shiming (8-1, 2 KO) vs. Prasitsak Papoem (39-1-2, 24 KO)

Zou Shiming and Prasitsak Papoem have meet once before in Shiming’s sixth professional fight in which Shiming earned a unanimous decision. Papoem has only fought in Thailand since his fight with Shiming. Additionally, more than half of Papoem’s opponents during that timespan had more losses than wins on their records prior to their matches against him. I see this fight no different than their first meeting.

Zou Shiming by Unanimous Decision

Oscar Valdez (20-0, 18 KO) vs. Hiroshige Osawa (30-3-4, 19 KO)

Oscar Valdez has continued to climb the rankings in the Featherweight division. Valdez has shown an increase of power as his competition continues to pick up in each bout. I expect this fight to end the same as Valdez’s previous four. Hiroshige Osawa has stopped his last 8 opponents, but at age 31, this will be his first fight in the United States. This will also be Osawa’s first undefeated opponent in 11 years when he faced a 2-0 Masanori Sakamoto (who never fought again after). Valdez will take his time with Osawa and stop him for the first time since 2005.

Oscar Valdez by TKO Round 4.

Nonito Donaire (37-3, 24 KO) vs. Jessie Magdaleno (23-0, 17 KO)

My prediction for the most entertaining fight of the night. Donaire is no stranger to the spotlight and the fan-friendly fighter has put on exciting fights in the past. However, Donaire’s opponent, Jessie Magdaleno, is undefeated and is yearning for a fight against a big name such as Donaire. I expect this fight to be similar to Donaire’s war in Puerto Rico against Cesar Juarez in December of 2015. I see Donaire taking many of the early rounds but hanging on by a thread as the fight continues. In the end, two judges will see Donaire victorious and the third will see Magdaleno.

Nonito Donaire by Split Decision

Manny Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KO) vs. Jessie Vargas (27-1, 10 KO)

Looking at the common opponents for Pacquiao and Vargas, Vargas lost a decision to Timothy Bradley and Pacquiao beat Bradley very convincingly on two of the three occasions (in reality all three occasions). Vargas came close with a late rally to almost stop Bradley but unfortunately for Vargas the round ended as did the fight. I expect Pacquiao’s speed and combinations to show early and his output to gradually increase as the rounds go on. At 5’10, Vargas has an obvious height advantage over Pacquiao. But Pacquiao has been successful against taller opponents in the past which included Antonio Margarito, Oscar De La Hoya, and Chris Algieri. I expect Vargas to take a few home run swings but don’t see Pacquiao succumbing to his first knockout since Juan Manuel Marquez. Vargas is dangerous, but Pacquiao has the experience, speed, power, and an entire arena of fans who will be backing him with every punch thrown.