January 24, 2017

Raees is the first major release of the year alongside Kaabil this Wednesday (25th January, 2017). Film stars Shah Rukh Khan in lead role and hence, Raees is expected to start big at box office from word go. Film will enjoy 5 day extended weekend with National Holiday falling on Thursday. However film will have clash with Kaabil and hence, screens will be divided and reduced.

Without any more delay let's start the Box Office Prediction of Raees. Let's understand whether it has potential to be a Hit or Flop?

Economics -

Budget - Total Landing Cost estimated at INR 90-95 crore [Production cost: 70 crores. P&A included. SRK fees not included]. Official announcement on Budget of film is not made.

Recovery from Non-Theatrical Revenue - Shah Rukh Khan had a satellite rights deal with Sony TV. Raees is part of that TV right. Recovery from Satellite rights of Raees is approx 55 crores. This is a big recovery, however there might be some box office performance deal also. Hence, minimum guarantee should be around 40-45 crores. Even, that is a major recovery. Also, recovery from Music and other rights should be easily 10-15 crores. Total non-theatrical recovery is approx 50-60 crores [bare minimum]. We take median value as 55 crores.

Amount need to be recovered from Theatrical Revenue - Raees has already recovered around 55 crores [median value] from non-theatrical recovery. Film just needs to recover another 35-40 crores from India and Overseas theatrical to break even. Anything above it will be profits. This is looking quite simple and film should easily recover it in first few days itself.

Release Screen Count - Film should get a release of 2500 screens or round about. Screens are bit less for a SRK starrer film, but still enough considering the extended weekend to 'Rock' box office.

Single Day Business Potential - As Raees set to release in nearly 2500 screens this Friday. Film has potential to collect nearly 25-26 crore nett in a single day with ideal 100% occupancy.

First Day Collection (Wednesday) - Raees is releasing on normal Wednesday. However film will pick up big from Evening onward as Thursday is National Holiday. So, if film starts with an opening of 14-15 crore or more it will be a great start. Anything above 15 crores is outstanding stuff, considering National Holiday still to come. Film will strike big on 26th January as it is Holiday all across India.

First Weekend Collection (Wednesday-Sunday) - Raees should collect around 80-90 crore nett in opening extended weekend looking at the current buzz and plus release factor. Numbers could even go towards 100 crore nett mark if film is accepted big by the audiences.

Lifetime Business - If Raees word of mouth is even decent to good, then movie has every chance of going past 150 crore at box office. If word of mouth is good to very good then film should cross 175 crore nett in its lifetime and may touch 200 crores.

Prediction:

First Day: Expected around 15 crore nett.

First Weekend:

If accepted: 85-90+ crore nett.

If mixed: 71-80 crore nett.

If rejected: less then 65 crore nett.

Lifetime:

If accepted: 175+ crore nett.

If mixed: 120-165 crore nett.

If rejected: Less than 110 crore nett.

Our Estimate: Looking into all pre-release factors we are predicting Raees business anywhere between 130-150 crore nett. That means Raees should be the 1st Hit of 2017. If content is good to very good then film has every chance of going past 150 crore and challenging 175-200 crore nett mark. We have considered pre release buzz, current box office scenario, reduced screen count, trailer response, song promos and Shah Rukh Khan star factor. Hope not only film does excellent business but outperforms our prediction to collect even more than that.

Verdict: Hit

Do let us know your prediction for this Republic Day Weekend biggie! What do you think whether film will collect 100, 150 or 200 crore or more at box office!

69 comments:

Now as srk stardom is down currently n clash also. I can expect it somewhere in 175cr.super hit for me. Anything above that is extraordinary n below that will b sum kind of underperformance. Srk needs a hit badly n for that it has to cross 120-130cr mark. Fingers crossed n waiting for mia bhai with bated breadth. Cheers

Raees will break Dangal's record...Aamir Khan is a small time actor when compared with SRK...SRK is a better actor than Aamir because SRK has won 8 best actor Filmfare awards while aamir has won only 3....SRK can teach acting to aamir

SRK was favorite ..but sadly since last 10 years he s lost it..he s a B grade actor and star..no1 is Aamir , then salman, then Hritik, Ranbir, Ranveer..then comes SRK..I feel sad that SRK has fallen to this level in acting and stardom and ranking and box office .

SRK is trying new things in Bollywood. Trying new and different roles. SRK acting performance is always awesome and going good and better. Just need some good script and hit movie. But still he is the King Khan of Bollywood and his performance is very much appreciated and welcome by the Indian audience.

DANGAL'S RECORD JUST WILL BE BROKEN BY ONLY THREE MOVIE'S WHICH IS TIGER ZINDA HAI(SALMAN KHAN) OR JOLLY LLB 2(AKSHAY KUMAR) OR REHNUMA(SHAHRUKH KHAN) BROTHER BECAUSE NOW AAMIR WILL NOT MAKE ANY MOVIE AFTER THESE MOVIE'S SO WE CAN SAY THAT THESE MOVIES CAN BE COMPETE WITH DANGAL(AAMIR KHAN) IF AAMIR SUPPOSE TO BE MAKE MOVIE WITH THESE THREE MOVIES SO MAYE AAMIR'S NEXT MOVIE BREAK DANGAL'S RECORD. BROTHER ROBOT 2.0 IS A SOMETHING KIND OF IMAGINNING MOVIE SO WE CAN'T ABLE TO COMPARE WITH DANGAL AND EVEN WITH SULTAN SO NOW GOOLMAAL 3 BROTHER IS ALREADY BE RELEASED NOW IT WILL BECOME GOOLMAAL 4 SO THIS MOVIE IS KIND OF FUNNY WE CAN'T BE ABLE TO ALSO COMPARE THIS WITH ACTIVE MOVIES LIKE DANGAL, SULTAN, CHANNAI EXPRESS, DILWALE, AND EVEN WITH MAYBE RUSTOM THANKS FOR REVIEW BROTHER....!

Pagal John nahin and you all are ..how can bloody a movie like raees get 55 crores for satellite rights ...no one mad in TV still as I am from that industry ...this again manipulating it being hit even before its released ...I thought game was to pay overseas collections now whole idea is TV rights too so jabra never flops ..and everyone you write akshay kumar movies flop as the TV rights and.overseas are zero .you in right mind ? Who will pay 55 for this.movie ? Then you mean dangal should get 150 cr from TV?

21 cr first day???... 25 cr second day? ??.. second day have India vs England first t20 ... Sunday have second t20... I predict for raees day 1.. 13-14cr day 2... 17-19cr day 3 12-13 cr day 4 16-18cr day 5 16-19cr.... day 6 8-9cr day 7 7-8cr day 8 6.5-7cr day 9 6cr.... it's best for raees... if film is accepted. .. if rejected raees will not be crossed fan life time collection. .. because there is kaabil and dangal...

Raees is big budget movie. ... 95cr+50cr srk salary= 145cr.... raees has every chance to be declared as flop or disaster. .. if raees collect more than 150cr.. then also share would be around 70-75cr... satellite and music recovery expect around 35-40cr... that means maximum recovery 115cr... overseas may gross 14-16million... overseas share would be around 30cr.. that means raees can get maximum 145cr.. if film does well in box office. .... 200 is not possible. . Even film is excellent too... my predictions india... 120-150cr overseas ... 14-16cr .... status average. ....

The first time I realized that Filmfare awards is a rubbish award show where awards could be bought was way back in 1998...SRK won the best actor award for Dil to Pagal Hai...I still CANNOT understand how Sunny Deol was not given the best actor award for his magnificent performance in Border that year...

If Filmfare thought that SRK deserved the best actor award in 1998 for Dil to Pagal Hai rather than Sunny Deol for Border then they should have given Salman the best actor award in 1994 for Hum Aapke hain koun rather than giving it to Nana Patekar for krantiveer!!!

Raees collection will be 16+22+14+18+21+9+8+8+7+6+8+10+4+3+3+2+15=life time 175cr if movie too good may be cross 200+and overses collection will be 200cr so ..raees worldwide collection will be 450cr movie will supperhit ....this is srk power of world..

O PAI HE IS ALSO A MUSLIM BUT FOR YOU KIND INFO RIYAZ BASHA'S IS RIGHT IT'S FOR BUSSINESS NOT NATAK KOI DHANDHA CHOTHA NAHI HOTA OKAY ALL DHANDHA IS BEST FOR YOU KIND UNLISS IT BECOME DIRTY AND BAD AND BAD AND DIRTY FOR PEOPLES ....OR BETA DOSKO KO KHUSHI POHANCHA ACHA KAAM HAI OR AP NAHI SAMAJHTY ACHA KAAM HAI....?

THE TOTAL MAKING AND ADVERTISING BUDGET IS 95 CRORE EXCLUDING FEE OF SRK. THE SETELITTE AND OTHERS RIGHT'S PRICE DEPENDS UPON THE PERFOMANCE OF THE MOVIE. LET CONSIDERE THE SETTELITE AND MUSIC RIGHT SOLD IN 55 CRORE . LET'S CONSIDER THAT THE NET BUSSUNES IN INDIA 150 CR. THAN DISTRIBUTER SHARE BE APPROX 60 CRORE AND OVERSEAS COLLECTION IS 80 CRORE THAN DISTRIBUTER SHARE WILL BE APPROX 20 CRORE. SO TOTAL RETURN IS 55+60+20=135 CRORE . SO PROFIT 135-95=40 CRORE IN WHICH SRK AND PRODUCERS HAVE TO MANAGE THEIR SHARE. IF WE CONSIDERE THE FEE OF SRK IS 50 CRORE THAN IT IS FLOP.