Is #8K yet more hype to push TV set sales to unsuspecting viewers or an unstoppable new trend that is already coming? For over a year now I’ve been itching to get to off the fence.

However, ever since I read Daniel Kahneman’s Think Slow Think Fast(thanks for the recommendation @Arnaudb92) I lost faith in expert predictions on any subject including my areas of expertise and especially in my own predictions. However, I’m nevertheless going to stick my neck out because I see so many wrong reasons used to dismiss 8K. I know I’ll look foolish if you out dig this blog in a decade, and 8K is still nowhere, but I’ll take that risk because I believe 8K will be bigger well before then, and many will have joined NHK that has had been running a commercial service since December 2018. Here are eight reasons why:

1. TV manufacturers have always been incredibly efficient at pushing any new tech to consumers (ask any 3D set owner) — this doesn’t imply that the tech is viable, just that the market will try it, if set-makers put enough effort into marketing it, and CES 2019 announcementsand demos confirmed that this would likely happen.

2. Is 8K enough of a differentiator over 4K to justify the expense? From a resolution-only point of view, the enhancement of 4K over HD has a subjectively lower impact on user experience than the move from SD to HD had at the turn of the century. Moving from HD to 8K will provide at least as big a wow factor as moving from SD to HD did in its time.

3. Indeed, resolution is only one of many dimensions that create Video User Experience. So even if alone it does not move the market, user enthusiasm may come with a combination of factors such as High-Frame rate (above 100 fps) and 8K.

4. Even if it takes a few years to reach mass-market, early opportunities already exist in niche areas like, for example, in luxury stores.

6. Furthermore, having whole walls made from screen is no longer science fiction. Samsung has been pushing modular screen technology for several years where modules are simply plugged into each other. At the same time, LG has brought screen thickness downto just a millimetre over three years ago so screens can be stuck onto a wall. In this context, overall screen resolution will need to be significantly higher than any single item it displays, including a video stream.

7. Experts are not yet consensual on this, but much of the considerable 35mm film archive around the world can be rescanned delivering resolutions higher than 4k, 70mm film can be rescanned at at least 8K.

8. 3D-video in the living room is a failure many would like to forget. It turned out just too complicated, needing special glasses and new content for a few fleeting moments of a wow effect. More 3D would make people sick. A major driving force that got so many people excited was the immersive effect. If you haven’t yet seen an 8K demo up close, you need to get to a store where they have one. If you just let your senses take over, it is a truly immersive experience. The extreme level of detail gives a sense of depth that regular video cannot compete with. It has the potential to do this for any piece of content for however long the filmmaker wants.

But will 8K offer another hype wave to ride?

Like most industry observers I believe the hype cycle exists, but I have also observed occasions where it didn’t materialise. I became a software engineer in the 80s. Relational databases had taken over the corporate world. In the 90s, Java became the next best thing, well since coffee. It was based on object-orientation (OO), and I expected OO to become the next upwardly mobile hype cycle to ride. I proudly pushed the concept on my CV assuming that was my career path. Nothing happened. OO penetrated the whole of IT, but slowly, without the buzz and hype I expected.

When HD changed the world of video, it was a massive hype generator. It’s looking like 4K is a significantly less potent marketing tool than HD was. I guess that 8K will be even more of a damp squib in terms of hype. That doesn’t change the fact that it will permeate through video workflows, just a bit more quietly.

Fifth generation mobile networks will be everywhere at MWC. Our blockchain industry can leverage 5G to help it take off, but blockchain will also be key to 5G’s long-term success. 4G was fast enough for many RIDDLE&CODE use cases so the massive improvement in bandwidth won’t change the game much for us. However, what I’m excited about is two other significant changes 5G brings. Machine identity it at the core of most of what we do, and reduced network latency, enables many difficult use cases where automobiles could securely exchange data when moving at speed. But 5G’s support of low energy radio will be a big short-term enabler. The higher density of connected devices will improve addressability, creating opportunities for new market places. Once infrastructure for more connected devices is here, we must manage the risk of it all going wrong. A device could send wrong data or impersonate another. DLT manages this risk by guaranteeing identity and giving access to shared verifiable data. The projects we’ve been working on with our clients and partners in for Smart Cities, Mobility, Logistics, Smart Energy and IoT will leverage the combined benefits of 5G and DLT. The natural fit between blockchain and 5G is why I’m excited to be going to Barcelona next week!

Although my first NAB was over 15 years ago, I’m still keen to get out to Vegas this year - OK not for Vegas the place, which gives me the creeps, but to catch up with the people, the trends and the tech. It remains one of my favorite conferences despite its gargantuan scale. Here are some of the questions I'll be looking to shed light on this year.

UHD

When I can get time off the Ultra HD Forum booth that I’ll be busy on, I’ll be looking into how the first generation of mature UHD technologies are doing. The debate as to whether 4K resolution was needed for a true UHD experience was all the rage just after the trailblazers were deploying UHD around 2014. Now that the paint has dried on the static metadata-based HDR solutions (HDR10/PQ and HLG), the battle seems over. Proponents of 1080p/HDR are grinning and claim they have won this round: we are already seeing some such content appearing on Netflix… For me the jury is still out, but I’ll be nosing around on people’s true intentions here.

But what’s next for UHD? I’ll be gaging the readiness of the next set of technologies, and as my friend Ian Nock says, how they might be deployed without breaking what’s already there. In the dynamic metadata space, Dolby Vision is already out there. Does there have to be a winner and a loser with HDR10+ or is there room in the market for both? As an audiophile I’ll be keen to find Next Gen Audio demos and here again fathom whether the existence of several standards (Dolby Atmos, MPEG-H, DTS:X, …) is holding things back.

Encoding

If one of my friends from the encoding space is kind enough to explain to me what's going on, I'll try to catch up on the encoding wars which have confused me with too many competing stakeholders to understand on my own. HEVC was supposed to be represent smooth transition from H264, now I don't know who to believe. The moving parts range from imploding patent pools, to Google, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft without forgetting the streaming people like DASH, H26x, disruptive start-ups, etc. Thierry, help! Decode it for me, tell me what's going on.

VR360

Having just published an eBook on VR360, that doesn’t predict 2018 is the year of lift-off but does explain why it’s the year to get involved, I’ll be eagerly looking how much we got right and if the hype has finally hit bottom, so we can now start to start to do business … I’ll do my best to get to the VR-IF masterclass on day 1 and if I'm lucky get an update from Rob Koenen.

Streaming Delay

I’ve been commissioned to do some work on OTT streaming delay, under the assumption that operators really care about reducing It. I’ve been very surprised that in my investigations so far, this is not the case. Sure, they’d like to reduce delay, but it’s low down their priority list. It’s got me wondering, as OTT streaming becomes more prevalent if the “norm” might, quite a few years from now become a 10-20s delay, where whatever broadcast is left, gets delayed so as to be synced with the crowd … probably science fiction but I’ll test out the idea.

Driven by Data, at last?

When I joined France Telecom (now Orange) in 2001, I remember a meeting where it was explained to me that our unique access to amazing data on subscribers and what they did, meant we would become the kings of data driven UX, data-driven decision making and data-driven just about everything … That vision of analytics was spot on, just too early and focussed on the wrong kind of operator. The Silicon Valley giants now dominate the world with Data and AI (which we didn’t see coming back then). So, have we truly entered the data era where other operators can get some of the pie? The recent Facebook/election scandals seem to say so. I’ll be looking around at vendors in the ecosystem are on the holy data grail. Is the market taking off for real or is it still vendor fantasy?

Virtual Reality is here to stay, in gaming at least. But what about video 360?

We're at top of the hype cycle, so you'll hear more and more slack, resist!

No money yet, just another living room 3D, gloom, gloom , gloom, …

Users want a pro to point the camera, …

Current V360 quality (resolution) is still sub-par

... but it's improving so fast and with a great UX already available in the labs it can be with users within a year or two.

However much bandwidth it ends up needing (10-1000Mbps), live V360 will leverage the best networks.

Video 360 will add something, be-it small or large, to operators' product portfolio and differentiation.

Even if it were to stay on the sidelines, VR and Video 360 will affect how we think of user experience, and may well influence content production.

The video tiling technique offers a scalable solution to delivering video 360 at a fraction of the bandwidth. Download this presentation to learn more, and stay tuned for the eBook due before EOY 2017.

Please complete the Email feild to view or download the presentation by Ben Schwarz on Live Video 360 delivery from November 2017

To get the most out of my annual pilgrimage to Amsterdam, I’ve sat down and had think about the big questions I don't believe we have answers on in late 2017.

I came up with 10, which only represent what I've been working on not necessarily the complete picture. Clearly we need to take ourselves less seriously sometimes. I for one would never trust an expert who has straightforward answers to all these questions, because the honest truth is that we don't know.