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Michigan drought update for July 5, 2012

Dry pattern to persist into the second half of July.

Scattered
showers and thunderstorms brought much-needed moisture to extreme northwestern,
central and eastern sections of Michigan, but rainfall totals in other areas were
negligible. Symptoms of plant water stress were evident in many spots,
especially across the southwestern Lower Peninsula where rainfall deficits
since May 1 are now approaching 6 inches in some cases (8 to 9 inches is the
climatological norm). The moisture stress was exacerbated by unusually high
temperatures during the past week, with 100-plus degrees Fahrenheit maxima
reported in southern sections on June 28 and again on July 4.

While
forecast guidance does suggest some relief to heat and dryness during the next
week (and that we may be experiencing the peak of the heat wave conditions
during the next one to two days), medium range guidance continues to suggest a
general continuation of drier than normal weather into the second half of July.
The magnitude of heat and dryness across southern Michigan and much of the
central and eastern Corn Belt region to our south is very unusual, with similar
conditions not observed since the great drought of 1988.

In
the short term, look for at least one last day of excessive heat on Friday
(July 6), with high temperatures well into the 90s and more 100 degrees Fahrenheit
or better readings in southern sections of the state. As has been the case for
the past several days, the combination of extreme heat and humidity will lead
to the formation of some isolated thunderstorms, but areal coverage will remain
limited and most areas will remain dry. A cool front is forecast to move from
north to south across the state late Saturday (July 7) and bring a better
chance for rainfall, beginning overnight Friday across the far north and
spreading southward during the day Saturday. Best chances for rainfall with
this system (scattered 0.25 to 0.50 inches totals with locally higher amounts) will
be across northern sections of the state. Fair, cooler and less humid
conditions are likely Sunday (July 8) through the middle of next week. Daytime
temperatures should fall back to the upper 70s north to mid-80s south – while
still a few degrees above normal, is still significantly cooler than the past
few days.

Latest
medium range forecast guidance suggests that the persistent upper air ridge
responsible for the drought will shift from western sections of North America
early next week back to the Midwest by late next week. Unfortunately, this
pattern change will likely lead to a return of much above normal temperatures at
some point during the next one to two weeks.

The
latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center
6-to-10 day and 8-to-14 day outlooks (for July 10-14 and July 12-18) both call precipitation
totals to continue to remain at below normal levels state- and region-wide.
Mean temperatures during the 6-to-10 day timeframe are forecast to range from
below normal levels across extreme eastern sections of the state to above
normal levels in the west, warming to near to above normal levels statewide
during the 8-to-14 day period.