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Forex

The euro pushed higher on Tuesday as political risk in Germany eased, while the dollar and the yen slipped lower as concerns over trade tensions subsided, but investor sentiment remained fragile.

EUR/USD was up 0.26% to 1.1669 by 04:02 AM ET (08:02 GMT) after ending the previous session down 0.32%.The euro was boosted after German Chancellor Angela Merkel reached a deal on immigration policy with coalition partners, resolving a row that had thrown into doubt the future of the government.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.2% to 94.41.Asian equities markets staged a late rally after tumbling overnight, but investors remained on edge ahead of a looming deadline in the trade spat between the U.S. and China.U.S. tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports are due take effect July 6, with China set to retaliate with tariffs of its own on the same value of U.S. products.

U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing ahead with plans to penalize major trading partners, including the European Union, Mexico and Canada as part of his 'America First' policy that many investors fear will hit global growth.The dollar edged higher against the yen, with USD/JPY edging up to 110.98.The euro also gained ground against the yen, with EUR/JPY climbing 0.36% to 129.52.The pound was higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.27% to 1.3156.The trade sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars were also higher, with AUD/USD up 0.64% to 0.7386 and NZD/USD adding on 0.15% to trade at 0.6725.The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold overnight and said that U.S. trade policy is a source of uncertainty over the global economic outlook.

Forex is a great online business where you can earn a lot of money with your investment but equally, Forex is risky if you will start it without any knowledge and skills so always try to develop your skills and learn the basics of Forex before a start.

The dollar was trading at three week lows against a currency basket on Monday after the latest U.S. jobs report pointed to sluggish wage growth, while the pound shrugged off the shock resignation of UK Brexit secretary David Davis.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.29% to 93.50 by 04:21 AM ET (08:21 AM GMT), the lowest level since June 14.The index slid 0.48% on Friday after slower than expected wage growth figuresslightly dimmed expectations for a fourth rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.While wage growth remained moderate the Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls increased by a larger-than-forecast 213,000 in June.Solid employment growth helped offset concerns over the escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute after new trade tariffs came into effect on Friday.The dollar edged lower against the yen, with USD/JPY last at 110.40.The euro pushed higher, with EUR/USD advancing 0.25% to 1.1774, the most since June 14.The single currency was boosted after data showing that German exports rose by more than imports in May, indicating that the euro area’s largest economy remains solid despite global trade tensions.

Sterling was also higher against the dollar, with GBP/USD climbing 0.53% to 1.3356, having recovered from an overnight low of 1.3284.The pound initially fell following reports that British Brexit Secretary David Davis had resigned, potentially dealing a blow to Prime Minister Theresa May.But sterling quickly rebounded amid indications that May would not face a major backlash against her Brexit policy and hopes that a softer Brexit may be on the cards moving forward.The pound was also higher against the euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.26% to 0.8815.The trade sensitive Australian dollar strengthened, with AUD/USD up 0.59% to 0.7472, its highest level since mid-June.

Trading forex means making transactions that involve currencies in the foreign exchange market. This could mean buying a certain currency pair, such as EUR/USD, based on the expectation the euro will appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar. Alternatively, an investor could sell the same pair, based on the belief the common currency will depreciate against the U.S. dollar.In addition to making basic purchase and sale transactions, traders have many ways to take positions on currency pairs, including spot contracts, forwards, derivatives and contracts for difference.WHY SHOULD I TRADE FOREX?

There are several reasons investors might opt to trade currencies instead of making use of other opportunities.Accessibility: Forex trading takes place on many different exchanges across the world, and as a result, investors can make currency trades 24 hours a day during weekdays. The forex market is also the largest capital market in the world, involving more than US$5 trillion in notional value worth of transactions per day.1)Liquidity: Because there is so much activity, the global forex markets provide substantial liquidity to traders. While certain assets may be more difficult to buy and sell, traders interested in currencies will likely find substantial opportunities. Liquidity risk can occur around major news events if liquidity providers seek to limit their exposure to market volatility.Leverage: Investors can potentially access far more leverage when trading currencies than they can when trading other assets. However, it is important to keep in mind that risk is inherent to investment. While using leverage to make larger trades can amplify returns, it can also amplify the size of losses.Global Exposure: Forex trading provides investors with an opportunity to obtain exposure to economies across the world. By taking a more international approach, traders might diversify more successfully or potentially achieve higher returns by putting their money to work in areas that have greater potential. Once again, risk is inherent to investment, so no returns are guaranteed and investors must conduct their due diligence on regions.Low Trading Expenses: Because there are so many buyers and sellers, spreads are low and trading costs are modest.

Like any form of investment, forex trading involves risk. The currency markets can experience sharp fluctuations, just like the stock, bond or commodity markets. Therefore, investors interested in forex trading are encouraged to conduct their due diligence and/or consult an independent financial advisor before making any transactions.In terms of specific risks, the forex market can present investors with less liquidity risk because of this particular market’s highly liquid nature. In other words, there is less risk that an investor will find himself unable to buy or sell a currency pair because he doesn’t have another market participant to take part in a transaction. Liquidity risk can increase around major news events.It is also worth noting that there are some unscrupulous brokers out there. As a result, investors can benefit from performing substantial due diligence on any company they might work with. For starters, they should ensure the broker is registered with regulators such as National Futures Association in the US, the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK and/or the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in Australia. Additionally, investors might want to research the financial institution’s reputation and find out how long it has been in business.HOW CAN I TRADE A CURRENCY I DON’T ALREADY HAVE?

If you want to trade a currency you don’t already have, there are many ways to do so. There are several different kinds of contracts you can harness to invest in currencies you don’t own. For example, you could trade the euro without owning it by buying or selling options that involve the currency. Call and put options on EUR/USD would provide methods to trade the common currency’s exchange rate with the U.S. dollar.In addition, purchasing spot contracts or forward contracts involving your currency of choice would also provide exposure.HOW CAN I COMPETE WITH THE BIG BANKS?

When making trades, big banks employ professionals who may have significant education and experience. As a result, you can benefit greatly by doing your best to be prepared. When evaluating currency pairs, some traders use fundamental analysis, which involves analysing economic fundamentals in different countries. When using this technique, investors might look at GDP, inflation and unemployment in the two nations involved in an exchange rate.Another resource traders can utilise is technical analysis, which involves reading charts to get a better sense of the market sentiment surrounding a specific currency pair. For example, if you are considering taking a long position on GBP/USD, you might want to work with some technical indicators to evaluate the currency pair’s market history.

Some traders might use both fundamental and technical analysis before making any transactions. By doing so, they might be able to increase their chances of competing successfully with big banks. Trading forex on margin carries a risk of losses in excess of your deposited funds and may not be suitable for all investors. As always, if you want to participate in forex trading, it can be very helpful to conduct your due diligence and/or consult an independent financial advisor.

Well, the currencies didn't move much yesterday, if anything they firmed up a bit, as the bounce from the dollar in the overnight markets Monday night was brought to an end. Last night in the overnight markets saw the same kind of trading we saw the previous night, with the dollar being bought, for some unknown reason... Oh, there's the usual suspect of excuses for this dollar buying... The Fed's on a faster pace to hike rates, a flight to safety, and it's the king currency, are at the top of the lists of excuses, but to me that's all they are... excuses, and excuses never won a ballgame for anybody!

All those excuses are nothing but window dressing... curb appeal... lipstick for a pig, and all those other things... Because the traders out there know as well as I do, that a recession for the U.S. is coming, and therefore that wipes out the rate hikes.. In fact, I was explaining to my good friend Duane, yesterday that what we're probably going to see during the next recession is negative interest rates here in the U.S. So, that would take care of the flight to safety excuse, and then there's this King Dollar that the dollar bugs love to talk about... Well, if that's all it has going for it is talk, then as my dad taught me years ago... Money talks, BS walks...But for now, we have to put up with this stuff, but let it go, because its just a phase... You know like when your child comes home with a mohawk spike in his hair that's colored orange... No reason to fly off the handle, it's just a phase and it will pass... This too shall pass... Just be patient, keep your currencies and Gold, and I feel it will all be right on the night! Of course that's just my opinion and I could be wrong, but I wouldn't say these things if I truly didn't believe in them! You can take that to the bank!

So, Chuck, do you really think that negative interest rates are in our future here in the U.S.? Yes, I do... Think about this, the average interest rate that was in place prior to previous beginnings of recessions was 6%, and the average total amount of rate cuts during a recession was 4.03%... And our current Fed Funds rate is 2%? Well, if we just have a normal recession, which I doubt we will because of all the excesses that have built up in the past 9 years, easy credit, zero interest rates and lackadaisical attitude toward debt build up, but if we just have a normal recession, 4% in rate cuts puts us negative -2%... See what I just did with the math there? Man, I am a math whiz, eh? HA!But seriously, do you see where I'm coming from there? Not many people in the world know these averages, but now you do, dear Pfennig Reader! And I'll tell you who else knows them all to well... The Fed Heads... Recall a couple of years ago, when then Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, asked for a answer to her question, "Can the U.S. have negative deposit rates" and her answer was yes... I made a big deal out of that then, calling it "greasing the tracks", and in the next recession, the Fed Heads will be able to pull that off the shelf, dust it off, and implement negative deposit rates!

This is all in the plans for getting you, me and the guy down the street that cuts his grass with his shirt off, to spend our money that we've saved and hold in the bank... But here's where it gets really dark and grim, folks, and if that's not your bag baby, then skip ahead because I'm going in... Who's with me? Come on, I don't want to be like Will Ferrell in the movie where he's streaking and thought the rest of the crowd was behind him, only to be the only naked guy running down the street!OK, those that have chosen to come with me to this dark and grim place, had better put your sharp objects away first... Ok? Alrighty then here we go... This is all a plan to eventually go to digital money... a cashless society... here's the idea hatched in my head several months ago... The recession causes the Fed to go negative with interest rates, and depositors decide instead of spending their cash, they'll just go to the bank and withdraw it, take it home, and put in under the mattress because at least there it's not costing you money to have it... The Gov't sees this as a real problem and decide to make withdrawing your cash a crime, and overnight your dollars become digital units in the bank... Talk about an end to your privacy, civil liberties, and all the other things that make this a great country!I'm back now... that was quite the ugly trip to the dark and grim location in Chuck's brain, wasn't it? But I have one question to ask... Got Gold? Speaking of Gold... The shiny metal was gaining some ground yesterday morning, and then the boys in the band showed up with their arms full of short Gold paper trades... If you see a graph of the day's trading in Gold you can point to the exact time of day the boys in the band showed up... So, the early gains were wiped out, and Gold ended up down $2.20 after about 267,000 contracts were traded...And if I can just circle the wagons and go back to the dark and grim place for a moment... The way I see things, Gold will play a BIG role in the formation of a new currency regime... I'm just saying...Today's U.S. Data Cupboard just has the PPI (wholesale inflation index) for June to view today... PPI has really been on a tear, higher that is, so far this year, and I doubt that it took a breather in June, but we'll see... There's not a whole lot in the Data Cupboard this week folks..Tomorrow we'll see the stupid CPI (consumer inflation) and that's it... So, the currencies will be left to trade on their own accord the remainder of this week... That's usually not a good thing for the dollar, but we'll have to wait-n-see how this all falls out.I'm still amazed that the major media outlets aren't making a big deal out of the Consumer Credit (read debt) print from Monday, when it jumped to $25 Billion from $10 Billion the previous month... To me, if I were a paid journalist, I would be looking into this data print, and telling everyone that this is not good...To recap... The currencies gained a bit yesterday, but gave it all back and more in the overnight trading... Consumer Credit (debt) was shockingly strong at $25 Billion, with credit card debt really soaring... Gold couldn't hold its early morning gains and ended up down on the day $2 and change... Chuck takes some brave readers to a dark place this morning...Or, here's your snippet: "One gauge of recession risk with a “pretty good” track record over the last half century has just raised a cautionary signal, according to the Leuthold Group.For the first time since just prior to the 2007-2009 recession, premiums on the lowest-rated tranche of investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds have risen to 2 percent after being below that level, according to data compiled by the Minneapolis-based research group. The analysis looks at the gap in yields between corporate debt rated Baa by Moody’s Investors Service and those on 10-year Treasuries." Chuck Again... More and more the big guys are coming around to my way of seeing this economy...Currencies today 7/11/18... American Style: A$ .7393, kiwi .6793, C$ .7550, euro 1.1710, sterling 1.3245, Swiss $1.0051, European Style: rand 13.4880, krone 8.0645, SEK 8.7790, forint 277.03, zloty 3.6945, koruna 22.1350, RUB 62.20, yen 111.26, sing 1.3605, HKD 7.8488, INR 68.72, China 6.6223, peso 19.02, BRL 3.8473, Dollar Index 94.35, Oil$73.71, 10-year 2.84%, Silver $15.97, Platinum $841.14, Palladium $937.07, and Gold... $1,250.06

Forex traders are still looking for the Holy Grail among trading systems and if it hits a series of losing trades, they immediately think about how to improve the trading system, or start thinking about a complete change of trading strategy.

In this article we explain how professional and successful long term traders approach their trading strategies.

Based on our experience, traders often seek extremely complex trading systems, trying to hedge loosing positions, and perhaps all possible combinations, alternatives, and tactics that you can imagine.

For a trader it is important to note that trading on financial markets is ultimately the same as any other business. Principles of business or even just the management of personal finances can also be applied in trading. In trading on financial markets, quite a simple equation applies:

Your earnings - your costs = Your profit / loss

Earnings obviously represent individual profitable trades, then the cost for each trader means losing trades + execution costs of trading orders. No surprise, therefore, that the more we can increase revenues while reducing costs, we achieve higher profits overall.

Therefore, if you are trading with a low quality broker, who is not fair, you will pay a spread together with high slippage, and your costs will increase so much that probably even the very best trading strategy will not be able to exceed it!

It is usually quite difficult to increase profits, and the vast majority of retail traders are trying to build the highest quality trading system, thus increasing profits.These traders get into a vicious circle of endless searching for the most profitable trading system.

After years of searching, a trader usually returns to trading systems that he probably already knew about at the start of his trading career. Also the trader will pay much more attention to his costs.

Trading costs may be influenced. Firstly, the individual losing trades must be restricted as part of money-management and you have to close unprofitable trades as soon as possible.

Generally among successful traders, it is stated that losing trades is not a failure, but an opportunity to open a profitable trade for better price in the market.

Further, we can affect total costs just by choosing the right broker - reducing the execution costs on individual transactions, which includes the spread and especially slippage. The slippage is the main reason why the same trading strategy achieves different results with different brokers . Additional costs can include swaps, the delay in executing orders and more.

How to increase your profits?

On foreign exchange markets, two basic trading principles work in the long-term to achieve profitable results.

We make more profitable trades (i.e., we have a higher percentage of success than 50%).

These two simple principles should be a cornerstone of our trading plan and we should always decide which direction we will take. According to our own experience, there is a problem that hardly any trader can combine both ways to generally realize higher profits than losses.

For this reason, especially for beginners and intermediate traders, we recommend you choose one of the above options, and then stick to it constantly.

Personally, what also turned out useful - we have seen the most profitable traders that consistently keep their trading plan and one of the principles above - to a certain extent they trade like robots, always the same over and over again.

Only in this way you can in fact reveal your possible failures, and constantly improve your trading results.

In the table below you can see the Risk Reward Ratio (RRR), and the percentage of success we achieve with long-term zero results, therefore we Break / Even.

Every time we are able to achieve a higher percentage of profitable trades with the given RRR, or at a given percentage of successful trades achieve better RRR, we realize the long-term profitable results.

The impulse for writing this article was to remind traders who are searching for the most sophisticated trading strategies that in financial markets, fairly simple principles work, and a simple trading strategy most often works the best.

At the same time, an important fact is that we have seen countless traders who have been successful, but still achieved unprofitable results. The reason was simple, there are countless brokers, with which traders simply cannot be profitable.

Foreign currency deposits in local banks have risen past the half a trillion mark for the first time, mainly driven by Kenyans sending money home to take advantage of the tax amnesty programme.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) say in their latest reports that the foreign currency holdings stood at Sh514 billion at the end of May, having risen 17 per cent or Sh73 billion in 12 months.

“From our discussions with the banking sector players, we attribute the increase in foreign exchange deposits to the tax amnesty programme, with a number of tier three banks recording notable inflows,” said Genghis Capital macroeconomic analyst Churchill Ogutu.

“With the tax amnesty extended till June next year, we expect the foreign exchange deposits to continue the positive momentum.”

Treasury secretary Henry Rotich in 2016 offered a tax pardon to encourage fat cats holding undeclared assets overseas to bring them home by June this year, leading to a last-minute rush in May.

Mr Rotich, however, extended the deadline to June 2019, and relaxed the scrutiny on how the assets were accumulated to encourage compliance.

Forexexperts say that under normal circumstances foreign currency deposits grow when people are looking to secure hard currency ahead of bad economic times, meaning that it would take an extraordinary event like the tax amnesty to push them up at a time when the economy is tipped to perform better than last year.

Those who will fail to comply with the amnesty terms will face a 20 per cent penalty on the tax payable for any undeclared funds on top of the tax payable.

The CBK data on diaspora remittances also reflects the rising flows, that hit a monthly record of Sh25.5 billion ($253.7 million) in May.

Cumulatively for the first five months of the year, the remittances stood at Sh112 billion ($1.11 billion), a 52 per cent increase over the same period in 2017, when cumulative remittances stood at Sh73.6 billion ($732.7 million).

The shilling has been a beneficiary of the influx of foreign currency, appreciating by 2.7 per cent against the dollar this year, bucking the global trend that has seen the major frontier and emerging market currencies shed value against the greenback.

Other African countries’ currencies have shed value against the dollar, including Uganda (-2.6 per cent), Tanzania (-1.7 per cent), Rwanda (-0.8 per cent), South Africa (-6.7 per cent) and Nigeria (-0.5 per cent).

A strengthening of the shilling has also fuelled the build-up of foreign currency, dealers say, with companies and individuals seeking exchange gains in future taking up the greenback.

This is because there are pointers that the shilling could come under pressure in the medium term due to rising oil prices, especially if the current US-Iran geopolitical spat escalates (Iran is a major oil producer and US sanctions would hit global production levels and raise price).

“The current exchange rate, in light of the general trend across similar markets, makes for a compelling case to take a position now in case of future depreciation,” said a dealer at a commercial bank.

The build-up in foreign currency holdings has also come at a time when Kenya’s import bill is rising, which ideally would have seen the volume of foreign currency fall as importers use up reserves to pay for external orders.

Kenya’s trade deficit — the difference between imports and exports — widened by 8.7 per cent to Sh494.3 billion in the first five months of the year from Sh454.86 billion in a similar period in 2017.

That the volume of foreign currency in bank accounts has grown in spite of the higher imports is indicative of robust inflows beyond the traditional export sources, traders say, pointing at the growing share of remittances.

Official reserves held at the central bank have also remained healthy this year, even as the regulator continues to use dollars to service foreign debt and protect the shilling against volatility.

Latest data shows that by the end of last week, the reserves stood at $8.87 billion (Sh891.4 billion), equivalent to 5.92 months of import cover, compared to $7.06 billion (Sh709.5 billion) equivalent to 4.73 months of import cover at the beginning of this year.

At the same time, Trump's deal with the EU has given the US the upper hand and the Chinese currency was in decline as traders speculate the trade tensions are about to escalate between Beijing and Washington. The DXY rose within a range between 94.0840-94.7950. US yields were firmer with the 2-yr yield climbing to the highest in ten years with the odds of a fourth hike from the Fed back in as a prominent theme in the markets currently. However, the US 10yr treasury yields held around 2.96% with Fed fund futures holding steady. From the data, the dollar was unphased by the disappointments in Durable goods orders that rose by 1.0% in June and well short of the market consensus for a 3.0% advance. Jobless claims also rose to 217k with 215k expected.

The single currency was barely impacted by the ECB initially but it gave out to the bears in the NY session and fell from 1.1740 towards 1.1650, below the 10 & 21-DMAs making for a bearish bias on a technical basis. Draghi says reinvestment not discussed and no need to modify rates guidance, reaffirming that rates will be on hold through summer of 2019. Sterling was on the back foot after Bloomberg came with a report that EU's Barnier said that “the EU cannot delegate the application of its customs policy and rules, VAT and excise duty collections to a non-member who would not be subject to the EU’s governance structures”. At the same time, Brexit fears were in focus which also weighed although the BoE hike expected on Aug 2 which is seen as one-and-done event that adds some fragile support to the pound. The cross was ending the NY session at 0.8880 -0.13%. USD/JPY was showing signs that its six-day correction of the uptrend was ending back above 111.00, where the price managed to hold above the 55-DMA (110.52), a familiar area of support in May and June. As for the Aussie, it was smashed lower on the back of a stronger dollar, weaker Chinese prospects and currency. However, commodities were mixed due to higher oil. Metals were a weight, with copper meeting strong supply. AUD/USD slide from its 0.7460 high towards 0.7375 with techs leaning bearish again where the 10 & 21-DMAs were pierced and RSIs biased to the downside again.

Major currencies largely stuck to familiar ranges on Monday as investors shied away from taking big positions ahead of a flurry of crucial economic data and central bank monetary policy meetings this week.The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve concludes its meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, a busy week which could set the near-term course for currencies.The euro bucked the quiet mood, reversing some of the losses that followed the European Central Bank's reaffirmation last week that rates would stay low through the summer of 2019.Those gains came despite slightly softer German inflation numbers and euro zone sentiment data, and analysts said the euro's rebound was largely because traders felt it had been oversold last week. Investors appeared reluctant to make large bets for now."It will be an active week, there is a lot of event risk," Credit Agricole analyst Manuel Oliveri said, referring to the central bank meetings as well as U.S. jobs data due on Friday."Markets are pretty much range-bound and it doesn't look like there is much motivation to enter big positions."Oliveri said dollar net long positions remained at their largest for several months, and the greenback's recent strength was vulnerable to a reversal of those positions.The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.1681 against the dollar.The dollar index fell 0.2 percent to 94.495.

Upbeat second quarter U.S. gross domestic product data last week failed to lift the greenback, as markets had mostly priced in strong figures. Data that incorporates July, when tariffs against Chinese goods were activated, should prove more important.The Swedish crown stood out as the biggest mover of the day, rallying more than 0.8 percent against the dollar and the euro after forecast-beating second-quarter GDP numbers. The dollar was 0.1 percent higher at 111.10 yen , with markets preparing to see whether the BOJ is considering taking steps to make its massive stimulus programme more sustainable.The dollar has eased from a six-month high above 113.00 yen hit on July 19, following speculation that the BOJ is preparing to tweak its policy.Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said she was not expecting the BOJ to row back from its plans to continue with its stimulus because in the past the central bank had signalled its intentions to tweak policy before doing so."They haven't told the market they are looking at something. Central banks rarely want to surprise the market," she said.The Chinese yuan continued to weaken. In offshore markets it fell to as low as 6.85 yuan per dollar , close to the one-year low it reached last week.The yuan has been under relentless presure in recent months because of nervousness about what a dispute over trade with the United States will mean for China's economy