ObamaCare may be less than 20 percent towards its enrollment target for October

posted at 2:41 pm on October 17, 2013 by Allahpundit

Remember, based on Compete.com’s best estimate from web traffic analysis, just 36,000 users were able to enroll successfully on Healthcare.gov during its first five days online despite 3.72 million attempts to register. That’s a success rate of less than one percent. Twelve days later, the site’s working slightly better, which means more enrollments; on the other hand, some people who tried repeatedly and failed during the first week are bound to have given up, and lord only knows how many of the successful enrollments that insurers are seeing are actually bona fide sign-ups rather than duplicates inexplicably generated by Glitch Central.

Let’s be very generous and assume that there’s somewhere in the ballpark of 95,000 enrollments right now, and let’s also assume against all evidence that every one of those enrollments is bona fide. HHS’s target for October was … nearly 500,000. And that number was only as “low” as it is because they figured not all of the uninsured would discover Healthcare.gov right away.

And now here we are.

In the memo, officials estimated that 494,620 people would sign up for health insurance under the program by Oct. 31. And that was portrayed as a slow start.

“We expect enrollment in the initial months to be low,” said the memo titled “Projected Monthly Enrollment Targets for Health Insurance Marketplaces in 2014.”

A big jump was expected after Thanksgiving, since Dec. 15 is the last day people can sign up so their coverage will take effect Jan. 1. Starting in the new year, the health care law requires virtually all Americans to have insurance or face fines. At the same time, insurance companies will be forbidden from turning away people in poor health.

See now why industry experts keep warning that the timeline for debugging the system is much shorter than what the White House and HHS would like you to believe? The fact that they’re so wildly off-target halfway through launch month means one of two things — or rather, both. One: There’s a huge crush of people who are patiently waiting for the wrinkles to be ironed out before they try enrolling again. That’s good news for the White House in the sense that they haven’t lost those enrollees for good (yet) but terrible news for Healthcare.gov’s IT team insofar as there’s another massive load of users ready to test the site’s infrastructure again. Those wrinkles had better be completely gone or else America might end up in 404 hell again after “re-launch” or whatever. Two: There’s another bunch of users who may have given up, if not permanently then for the foreseeable future until they stumble across a reminder about enrollment somewhere again. That’s the nightmare scenario for O because the lower the number of early enrollees, the greater the panic within the industry that they won’t make up the shortfall anytime soon and thus the greater the chance that they’ll have to hike premiums on people who already have insurance to avert a “death spiral.” Missing the target puts a lot of political pressure on O to make sure that doesn’t happen somehow, which raises the odds of delay. And right now they’re missing the target badly.

How bad is the site even now, after more than two weeks of frantic, round-the-clock triage attempts by HHS and its contractors? The Times asked users:

Mr. Wheeler, an independent sales representative with a neuromuscular disorder, had succeeded where many in other states had failed, getting through a thicket of log-in pages. But when he tried to find out whether two health plans he liked would pay for his medications or let him keep his current doctors, he could not.

He called one doctor on the spot, but the receptionist could not tell him whether the practice was in the new plan networks. Nor could Mr. Wheeler, 61, get quick answers from the insurers themselves. Exasperated, he put off completing his application…

Exchange officials say they plan to make it easier for customers to see which providers and drugs are covered as they continue to refine the new Web sites. But for now, a lack of quick and easy search tools is adding another layer of frustration in the opening weeks of a program that has been plagued by technological problems and political attacks.

The whole point of the site in theory is to make it easy for users to comparison shop between plans. As it is, while users can compare prices, they need to go to the individual websites of each insurer to read the fine print on what’s covered and what isn’t. So if you’re looking at plans from insurers W, X, Y, and Z and you’re considering the “gold,” “silver,” and “bronze” plans from each, that’s 12 different sets of fine print scattered across at least four and maybe as many as 12 different web pages you need to sift through to see if your current doctor and prescription are cpvered under each. See now why Mr. Wheeler gave up?

As icing on the cake, read Peter Suderman’s post on how confusion within the administration about O-Care goes well beyond HHS. Apparently, it came as news to the IRS — the agency tasked with enforcing the mandate and collecting the penalty associated with it — when industry experts announced recently that the deadline for buying insurance to avoid the penalty is mid-February, not March 31st. “So it took a private tax firm to realize—after three years of administration work on the law’s implementation—what the applicable tax law really is,” writes Suderman. We’re in good hands, my friends. Exit question: Granting that not quite everything is HHS’s fault, what’s the argument nonetheless for why Sebelius shouldn’t resign?

Update: A fascinating counter to my post about delaying ObamaCare from Philip Klein. If Obama declares that he has no choice but to delay the law due to technical problems, should conservatives accept that as a victory — or block it to try to force the law’s ultimate defeat?

The operating assumption would be that Republicans would jump at the chance to delay it. But after the past few weeks, can we really be sure that this would be the case?

It’s perfectly conceivable that if such a scenario played out, the position of the Tea Party activists and their allies in Congress would be that delaying the law for a year would be tantamount to a bailout of Obamacare.

If Obama doesn’t agree to full repeal, they could argue, the law should go into effect and destroy the private insurance market so that Americans can experience the full disaster of the law and increase the public pressure to repeal it entirely.

One can easily see the logic behind this argument. It’s much easier to blame Tea Party Republicans for shutting down the government and the potential consequences of not raising the debt ceiling than it would be to blame them if Obama’s pet project backfired and wreaked havoc with the insurance system.

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Comments

A fascinating counter to my post about delaying ObamaCare from Philip Klein. If Obama declares that he has no choice but to delay the law due to technical problems, should conservatives accept that as a victory — or block it to try to force the law’s ultimate defeat?

Who cares if it’s Obama that proposes it?

Delay it – all of it. But Obama would never go along for delaying all of it.

But why wouldn’t he just “delay” it with the same monarchical powers he used to modify it 17 times, including the business mandate?

ObamaCare may be less than 20 percent towards its enrollment target for October

The deliberate destruction of American health care proceeds apace, with little Markie Rubio & his fellow RINOfilth cheering it along on the sidelines for hope of partisan gain.

Lovely.

Next up, the Single-Payer express and political tests for health care access, with the GOP de-elite gladly taking on the role of “wreckers” in return for bribes and a minority seat at the table, as in Russia.

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

I am SO utterly weary of this, the political game playing/brinkmanship, my hair hurts.

I really don’t know who these people are that have actually even gotten past the logging into the system. I have been trying since day one and have never been logged in. When I put in my user name and password it just hangs on a blank screen. If I put in lost password it sends a link to my email, which means they have my account. I use the link and put in my security answers and then it gives me an error saying no account found AND security answers are wrong. To me this means the system is EFFED UP.
I am trying to get in 5o see if I can claim an exemption and not pay the penalty because once they put on the smoking penalty for my husband the premium I have estimated from Keiser is over 15% of our income.

If Obama declares that he has no choice but to delay the law due to technical problems, should conservatives accept that as a victory — or block it to try to force the law’s ultimate defeat?

Republicans have yet to confront Obama on the illegality of the employer mandate waiver. Why would anyone suppose that when Obama unilaterally waives the individual mandate Republicans would do anything different?

The only victory conservatives will accept is Obamacare’s demise. Repeal it, defund it, or ignore it like Prohibition until it’s a dead letter and done. Nothing less. Or there is no victory.

Healthcare.gov, the federal government’s Obamacare website, has been under heavy criticism from friend and foe alike during its first two weeks of open enrollment.

Repeated errors and delays have prevented many users from even establishing an account, and outside web designers have roundly panned the structure and coding of the site as amateurish and sloppy.

The latest indication of the haphazard way in which Healthcare.gov was developed is the uncredited use of a copyrighted web script for a data function used by the site, a violation of the licensing agreement for the software.

The script in question is called DataTables, a very long and complex piece of website software used for formatting and presenting data.

DataTables was developed by a British company called SpryMedia which licenses the open-source software freely to anyone who complies with the licensing agreement.

A fascinating counter to my post about delaying ObamaCare from Philip Klein. If Obama declares that he has no choice but to delay the law due to technical problems, should conservatives accept that as a victory — or block it to try to force the law’s ultimate defeat?

I thought about that earlier. And what I hope happens is that the GOP agrees to pass a one-year delay, but only in exchange for some major concessions elsewhere. And this is not a debt ceiling scenario where Boehner and McConnell would be p-ssing their pants over a potential default. They would hold all the cards and have no excuse to not get something substantial out of Obama and Reid.

And yes, I realize that Obama could attempt to unilaterally delay it on his own for a year, but even if he somehow does that and avoids the wrath of Congress, the logistics of such a move may be impossible.

Well, we can all take comfort that while ObamaCare is an utter disaster it isn’t serving the greedy profit motives of the rich*.

/libtards

(* Statement excludes all the community organizations, unions and other groups which are getting kickbacks to “facilitate” ObamaCare, including the no-competitive contract given to the software company who rolled the website out).

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

They could just go out tongue-in-cheek and thank the President for agreeing with them, and knock him for shutting down the government over what the GOP was right about from the start.

I thought about that earlier. And what I hope happens is that the GOP agrees to pass a one-year delay, but only in exchange for some major concessions elsewhere. And this is not a debt ceiling scenario where Boehner and McConnell would be p-ssing their pants over a potential default. They would hold all the cards and have no excuse to not get something substantial out of Obama and Reid.

And yes, I realize that Obama could attempt to unilaterally delay it on his own for a year, but even if he somehow does that and avoids the wrath of Congress, the logistics of such a move may be impossible.

Doughboy on October 17, 2013 at 3:02 PM

I think that the GOP’s starting position should be complete repeal. If Obama’s going to admit it doesn’t work after 3+ years and billions of dollars then it’s time to pull the plug.

If the Democrats want to discuss the healthcare system in America then lets start over instead of trying to tinker with something that will never work.

I read somewhere (can’t remember now) that the website traffic for healthcare.gov dropped by 88% from the first week to the second, if that is also true then there is no way in Hades that they’ll get the numbers they need.

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

After December declare it too late as the then insured would be damaged by hiked,again, prices due to low enrollment and due to insurance companies being damaged by death spiral. By then, nothing will do except full repeal and the clock would be ticking because of the millions stuck in the middle with no insurance. Repeal so companies and individuals can get back on the plan they liked and wanted to keep.

I think that the GOP’s starting position should be complete repeal. If Obama’s going to admit it doesn’t work after 3+ years and billions of dollars then it’s time to pull the plug.

If the Democrats want to discuss the healthcare system in America then lets start over instead of trying to tinker with something that will never work.

gwelf on October 17, 2013 at 3:05 PM

Yeah, but you’re approaching it from the standpoint of a tough negotiator which Boehner is anything but. A competent House Speaker would demand a full repeal(which obviously Obama and Reid would balk at), but “settle” for a one-year delay in exchange for something big like entitlement reform or massive cuts in spending. Not to mention an actual freaking budget for the first time in over 4 years.

I think Obama will keep moving up the final date for applications, so he can get closer to a goal that will not destroy Obamacare right away. That should take him to the end of his term, so he can attack the Repubs on amnesty, etc., instead to try to get the House back in 2014.

I say, let him do it. The GOP should insist it go forward. It will destroy itself.

The House passed a bill authorising, retroactively, Obama’s EM waiver.

Get this: Obama said that he would VETO it.

Resist We Much on October 17, 2013 at 2:55 PM

Great thing of us forgot! Thanks for that reminder. Which still makes the point: does it matter what the Republicans do or don’t do if Obama waives the individual mandate?

Something about granting “retroactive authorization” sounds a bit like legalizing lawlessness– like amnesty for errant chief executives. Which is probably already in the Gang of Eight bill anyway.

If you run with “the whole thing’s going to collapse on its own” pack, probably best to remain silent and let a delay’s worth of lost Obamacare premiums and “tax” revenues further burden the system. But don’t call anything short of repeal, defund, or demise a “victory” for conservatives.

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

As I wrote elsewhere–the Republicans offered to help Obama out with a delay to Obamacare, but he effectively stabbed the hand that reached out to help him.

There’s no reason and nothing to be gained by working with him on this now. He made his bed….

Yeah, but you’re approaching it from the standpoint of a tough negotiator which Boehner is anything but. A competent House Speaker would demand a full repeal(which obviously Obama and Reid would balk at), but “settle” for a one-year delay in exchange for something big like entitlement reform or massive cuts in spending. Not to mention an actual freaking budget for the first time in over 4 years.

Doughboy on October 17, 2013 at 3:11 PM

I agree. The starting position should be for a complete repeal. The ONLY acceptable fallback would be a complete delay for AT LEAST one year and I like the idea of throwing other stuff in there too like entitlement reform. As long as we’re dealing with things that don’t work why not the other entitlements too?

But Obama’s ego will never let him ask for a legitimate delay. He’ll do it via monarchical powers or just let things happen and blame the rich insurance companies.

It seems to me that Obama needs the GOP to act legislatively for a full delay. Waiving the penalty either legally or by royal decree would have no effect since the problem is that people are not signing up despite the potential tax liability.

Democrats in all 57 states would be suing the federal government for their subsidies and benefits under the ACA if it were to be delayed in its entirety without legislation authorizing such a move. At least one federal judge somewhere would rule that potus has to abide by his law pending trial. The GOP should do nothing and allow that to happen.

Nothing will happen, little will change. (Except more exemptions…)
Biggest error of Republicans and Govt. Shut down is it hid the opening failure that ObamaCare was.
We have now been there and done that so…
ObamaCare is here to stay.

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

You Won!!! Remember?

Bmore on October 17, 2013 at 2:53 PM

You’re exactly right. All that delay does at this point is enable Obama to look the GOP look ridiculous and to make him look magnanimous. The GOP should say that he rejected it before, and he won. Time to go with Obama’s starting lineup, though it’s not really all the way.

Let’s face it, Obama illegally waived the employer mandate because that’s a larger, more concentrated, and louder constituency. He didn’t want the cacophony of complaints from employers and their employees–at least to the greater extent they’d be if the employer mandate were now in effect. He needs to keep the individual mandate because Obamacare needs the enrollees. He probably gambled that the screaming of a bunch of politically diffuse individuals could be laughed off as mere anecdotal tea-party crankism. But that was before the roll-out clusterphuck.

The roll-out aside, I’m wondering when the economic clusterphuck of Obamacare really hits enrollees in the face.

Let’s be magnanimous and accept the claim that the 381,000 words that comprise ACA, and the 11,588,000 words that are the regulations of the ACA, are law of the land…..

…let it be at this point. (By all means, contest the illegal / unconstitutional waivers granted by the WH / Administration, but it is, as the left keeps telling us, the law of the land.)

Let’s also put on the back burner, for now, the other laws of the land that the Administration and Democrat controlled Senate has unilaterally decided to ignore because they are inconvenient towards their ability to fundamentally change a broken, unjust, and unfair country.

Let these programs run at the current funding levels. Let’s see the effects of a $600M+ no-bid contract to a Montreal based company to build Healthcare.gov and all of it’s infrastructure for 35 states.

Let’s see the effects of ‘if you like your plan you can keep it’ as non-ACA compliant plans are eliminated and people are tossed into exchanges where premium increases are only exceeded by the unaffordable deductibles.

Let’s see the effects of tens of thousands of Doctors dropping these plans from their coverages or demanding full payment of deductibles before treatment.

Let’s see the effects of ‘if you like your Doctor, you can keep him’ when that’s not the case.

Let’s see what happens when the young and low information actually find out that the promises were empty and they are only fodder for the progressive-fascist agenda? Will they still line up to vote 2 or 3 times (or more) for the Democrats who made these promises?

2014 will be another referendum on the ACA, just like 2010 and 2012 were.

And don’t misconstrue the results of 2012 – if it were meant to repudiate 2010, then the GOP would have lost the House and seen the Democrats return to their supermajority in the Senate.

Too many conservatives who didn’t want to risk what they saw as a progressive-lite Mitt Romney, still voted locally and at the state level to support conservatives and the conservative agenda of smaller government, less spending, and abiding by the Constitution.

The people of this country wanted a counter-balance to the Obama agenda – and ensured it was in the part of the government that is closest to the will of the people.

What happens if there is a delay? Particularly for those people who had individual (non-group) coverage, and continue to want individual coverage? Most of those previous plans have been closed, at least to new enrollees, leaving only the Obamacare plans, with community rating, guaranteed issue, etc. and much higher prices. Would the insurance industry be able to roll all of that back in such a short time and offer traditional plans again?

Having offered delay as a solution to the fiscal standoff as recently as a week ago, though, would congressional Republicans turn on a dime and suddenly declare it out of the question because it’s too late now?

As I wrote elsewhere–the Republicans offered to help Obama out with a delay to Obamacare, but he effectively stabbed the hand that reached out to help him.

There’s no reason and nothing to be gained by working with him on this now. He made his bed….

Because she and Obama are ideologically joined at the hip. For HHS he has to have someone who is as rabid a Leftist as he is. IMHO she’ll stay for the same reason Holder will. Blame will be attached to underlings.

‘Facing such intense opposition from congressional Republicans, the administration was in a bunker mentality as it built the enrollment system, one former administration official said. Officials feared that if they called on outsiders to help with the technical details of how to run a commerce website, those companies could be subpoenaed by Hill Republicans, the former aide said. So the task fell to trusted campaign tech experts.’

“Apparently, it came as news to the IRS — the agency tasked with enforcing the mandate and collecting the penalty associated with it — when industry experts announced recently that the deadline for buying insurance to avoid the penalty is mid-February, not March 31st.” I have hear and read that Obamacare has a section that bars the I.R.S. from collecting the fine from refusing to sign up for Obamacare. Can anyone verify this ?

I HAVE READ AND HEAR THAT THERE IS A SECTION IN OBAMACARE THAT BARS THE I.R.S. FROM COLLECTING THE FINE FOR REFUSING TO SIGN UP. CAN ANYONE VERIFY THIS ? IF REP. WANT TO DESTROY OBAMACARE ONCE AND FOR ALL DEMAND THAT EVERY PART MUST BE ENFORCED.

Nothing will happen, little will change. (Except more exemptions…)Biggest error of Republicans and Govt. Shut down is it hid the opening failure that ObamaCare was.We have now been there and done that so…
ObamaCare is here to stay.

THERE SHOULD BE AN ORGANIZED NATIONWIDE BOYCOTT AGAINST OBAMACARE. THE FACT THAT THE I.R.S. IS VERY LIMITED IN WHAT IT CAN DO SHOULD BE BOARDCAST FAR AND WIDE. I HAVE ALSO HEAR THAT THE PROBLEMS WITH HEALTHCARE.GOV WILL TAKE YEARS TO FIX….YES THATS RIGHT [YEARS]. IF TRUE OBAMCARE WILL NEVER GET OFF THE GROUND.