Saturday, April 9, 2011

With the series tied up at one game apiece, the Yankees will turn to their current ace, CC Sabathia, and the Red Sox will turn to their former ace, Josh Beckett, tomorrow at 8 on ESPN (more national TV!). Beckett still has great stuff, but he's been hit hard recently (solid peripherals, but a 5.78 ERA in 2010). He throws the same five pitches as Clay Buchholz. Take a look:

mph

pfx_x

pfx_z

Fastball

93.2

-6.9

+9.0

Sinker

93.1

-9.9

+5.2

Curveball

75.7

+7.0

-7.5

Cutter

90.3

+0.7

+5.6

Changeup

87.6

-8.8

+2.5

Beckett gets less drop and velocity on the curve than Buchholz, and some extra tail and sink on the sinker. The biggest difference is the changeup - Buchholz's is slow and straight, while Beckett's just looks like a sinker with some velocity taken off. Generic pitch results:

#

%

RHB%

LHB%

Swing

Whiff

Zone

Chase

Watch

Ball

RV/100

xRV/100

Fastball

801

.379

.331

.411

.439

.139

.472

.255

.354

.356

+1.18

-0.82

Sinker

340

.161

.187

.143

.453

.123

.435

.313

.365

.388

+1.10

+0.46

Curveball

385

.182

.226

.153

.348

.291

.384

.257

.507

.436

+0.32

+0.09

Cutter

347

.164

.207

.136

.602

.273

.435

.443

.216

.308

-0.12

-1.31

Changeup

242

.114

.050

.158

.459

.306

.339

.313

.256

.434

+0.14

+0.74

2142

.455

.205

.433

.304

.347

.377

+0.73

-0.28

GB Rate

FB Rate

LD Rate

PU Rate

HR/FB

wOBAcon

Fastball

.444

.375

.153

.028

.148

.479

Sinker

.513

.167

.244

.077

.154

.392

Curveball

.491

.200

.255

.055

.182

.400

Cutter

.426

.265

.191

.118

.167

.439

Changeup

.523

.250

.182

.045

.182

.315

.467

.278

.197

.058

.164

.425

Beckett struck out over 8 men per 9 innings last year despite lacking a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch (though the cutter is impressive adjusted for pitch type - the average cutter has a whiff rate of around 21%). The chart below shows Beckett's pitch selection last year in each count. Hitters see plenty of curveballs in strikeout situations:

Overall: he got burned once the ball was in play last year (high wOBAcon, HR/FB, and RV-xRV), but he has some quality stuff. His cutter, in particular, looks good. He can probably still be quite effective this year if he stays healthy and has some more luck.