000
FXUS63 KUNR 292037
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
CROSSING THE DAKOTA AND MONTANA ARE ACTING TO TIGHTEN THE SFC
PRESS GRAD AND PRODUCE AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESP
OVER NWRN AND CNTL SD. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT OFF TOT THE EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CO/NE...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
-TSRA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL
HOLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015
DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...80S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT ON WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL AROUND
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26