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Boston News, Sports, Weather, Traffic and Boston's BestTue, 31 Mar 2015 18:25:29 +0000enhourly1http://wordpress.com/http://1.gravatar.com/blavatar/72ff1baf55fe94c284ce5747d8d4a96e?s=96&d=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.wp.com%2Fi%2Fbuttonw-com.png » Beyond The Forecasthttp://boston.cbslocal.com
Batches of Showers and Warmth By Week’s Endhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/30/batches-of-showers-and-warmth-by-weeks-end/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/30/batches-of-showers-and-warmth-by-weeks-end/#commentsMon, 30 Mar 2015 13:43:57 +0000daniellenileshttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=623100It’s amazing what a little sunshine can do to brighten your spirits! A spectacular sunrise greeted many of us Monday morning ahead of cold front set to sweep through the region later on. There have […]]]>It’s amazing what a little sunshine can do to brighten your spirits! A spectacular sunrise greeted many of us Monday morning ahead of cold front set to sweep through the region later on. There have even been some snow showers and flurries around…but little impact on the roads is anticipated with temperatures on the rise. In fact by later on today, you’ll want the umbrella on standby. Rain showers develop during the mid to late afternoon and will last into the evening hours. Don’t be surprised if it pours briefly for your ride home.

Our next disturbance is right on this one’s heels; a fast moving clipper system will slide to our south tomorrow night. While the bulk of the moisture will be out over the ocean, the northern fringe of precip will graze us Tuesday evening and night. Initially, temps will be “warm” enough for rain…but a changeover to snow is possible with a coating of accumulation up to the MA Pike. The storm may be organized enough to produce an inch or two of accumulation along the south coast. I know, not what we want to hear!

Behind this area of low pressure, bright & breezy weather will follow for Wednesday…but the gusty northwest wind will create wind chills in the low 30s. Looking for warmer temps? You won’t have to wait too long. We should rise into the low 50s on Thursday…low 60s on Friday…can we make it low 70s by Saturday? Not this time around. Cooler air will return for the weekend. But we’re making progress, slowly but surely :)

-Danielle

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/30/batches-of-showers-and-warmth-by-weeks-end/feed/0April Warmth Beckonshttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/29/april-warmth-beckons/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/29/april-warmth-beckons/#commentsMon, 30 Mar 2015 01:04:45 +0000Barry Burbankhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=623009While most yearn for the real warmth of spring, this was the tenth consecutive weekend containing snow which added to the seasonal totals in the region!]]>

While most yearn for the real warmth of spring, this was the tenth consecutive weekend containing snow which added to the seasonal totals in the region! Boston’s record is now up to an astounding 110.6″ and Worcester’s total has reached 119.2″ which is closing in on the #2 slot. The jackpot is claimed by the Blue Hill Observatory with a mammoth 150.8″ which eclipses the previous record of 144.4″ set in 1995-96.

Most people would like to forget about the snow but statistics reveal that we can be vulnerable to snow attacks in April such as the April Fool’s Blizzard of 1997 when Boston received 25.1″! Another example is a very nasty heavy wet snow blitz on April 28-29, 1987 when more than 4″ fell in Boston with up to 1-2 feet of snow from the western suburbs into the Worcester Hills! NO worries!There will not be any snow storms in the next week but I cannot rule out a few flurries over western New England early Monday and, hopefully, nothing more than passing snow showers early on Easter Sunday.

We have indeed lived in historical times in this year of 2015. The very harsh conditions over the past three months were highlighted by an epic 100″ of snow falling in only 30 days and a repeat of that fast and furious accumulation seems unlikely for another 100-200 years! Additionally, the past 3 months have been incredibly cold with the mean temperatures at 2.9 degrees below average for January, a numbing 12.7 degrees below average in February and 5.2 degrees below average in March. The predicted pattern going forward calls for the mean temperatures to ramp up to near average for April and slightly above average in May. In my blog from last Sunday, Cycles Of The Weather Engine, I presented a plausible pattern for the upcoming summer. It supports near to slightly below average temperatures so I am surmising a couple of days less than the average 14 days at 90 degrees or higher in Boston. An extremely hot summer of more than 20 days over 90 is not likely. The global factors favor some batches of refreshing air to flow out of central Canada into the Northeast from time to time reducing the risk of lengthy heat waves. Apparently, a summer similar to that of 2014 will make most of us happier.

In the shorter range, we will not have a concluding month mimicking March 1998. Its final five days contained high temperatures of 79, 85, 75, 78 and 89 respectively in Boston! There were 3 new record highs and the 89 on the 31st was the hottest so early in the season! Contrast those with the corresponding temperatures this month namely 44, 40, 41 and the predicted 48 and 46. The average high temperature for the last few days of March is 50 degrees. The upper air currents should steer much warmer air into our area later Thursday and especially Friday. That warmth will be accompanied by some showery rains on Friday and colder weather will return next weekend.

What are your favorite stretches of the year? Clearly, I would expect the majority to vote for June through August and I definitely enjoy summer days that are not stifling with tropical heat and humidity. I actually have 3 favorite times of the year which include November 22 to March 22 because I love winter. Add to that April 22 to May 22 because I love the blooming of spring with its greening landscape plus its beautiful flowering shrubs and trees. Finally, I would tack on September 22 to October 22 because I love the fall foliage extravaganza and the cooler, crisper football days. IMO, there is no finer place than New England to enjoy the 4 distinct seasons of variety.

Make it a great week.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/29/april-warmth-beckons/feed/0Cue The Snowflakes, It’s The Weekendhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/27/cue-the-snowflakes-its-the-weekend/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/27/cue-the-snowflakes-its-the-weekend/#commentsFri, 27 Mar 2015 19:51:31 +0000deanreddingtonhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=622715We just can’t shake it. This pattern of snowy weekends is getting to be a bit ridiculous. ]]>BOSTON (CBS) – We just can’t shake it. This pattern of snowy Weekends is getting to be a bit ridiculous. Someone needs to dial up Mother Nature and let her know it is nearly April. Doesn’t it seem like it has snowed just about every Weekend in recent memory? I mean seriously, can you remember a Weekend when snow wasn’t coating the roads, or worse, ruining your plans? Would you believe that snow has fallen on 9 consecutive Weekends, dating back to late January? That snow on January 24th was actually the start of our historic snow blitz. We received 5.1” on that date, about as much as we had received for the entire season at that point…and then it was off to the races.

You may remember the Weekend of Feb 7-8, or perhaps you have tried to forget. The snow started on Saturday and actually lasted through Tuesday! 8.3” fell during the Weekend hours and over a foot more fell on Monday.

Or how about Valentine’s Day Weekend…another snowstorm. 16.2” fell this time, mercifully it didn’t ramp up until after the romantic dinner was over.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Every single Weekend in February had measurable snow. And in March, our streak continued. Just a few flurries (a trace according to the National Weather Service) fell on the Weekend of Mar 7-8. But, that was followed by snow for the St. Patrick’s Day Parade on March 14th and more than an inch last Saturday.

So, can we make it an even 10 Weekends in a row? A clean sweep of February and March? Absolutely. Cue the snowflakes, it’s the Weekend.

The rain that has fallen for a good deal of the last few days is finally moving offshore, but it won’t make it far. A frontal boundary is going to stall to our east and waves of low pressure will continue to ride along it for the next few days. This boundary will stay just close enough for a swath of precipitation to brush Eastern Massachusetts late Tonight and Saturday. At the same time, colder air will be filtering in from the north and temperatures will drop from the 40s into the 30s.

TIMELINE:
Just before Midnight Tonight, rain and snow showers will begin again. By Saturday Morning, this area of precipitation will have expanded to encompass most, if not all, of Eastern Massachusetts. North and West of Boston, it will be mainly snow. Right along the Coast and in southeastern Massachusetts, it will be more of a rain/snow mix early on and gradually change to all snow during the day. By mid to late afternoon, the snow will become more spotty. By evening, expect just some leftover snow showers and clearing skies overnight.

HOW MUCH:
Accumulations are tough to call. The ground has warmed quite a bit over the last few days and some of the snow may melt on contact initially. Most of the roads should stay more wet than white on Saturday, best chance of road accumulation would be north and west of Boston where temperatures are slightly colder. It appears a general 1-3” is possible for Eastern Massachusetts by late day Saturday. Farther inland, west of I495, the snow will be lighter and spottier, so a coating to an inch should do it there.

As for Boston, the City already broke the all-time snowiest season record a while back and currently sits at 110.3”. So another inch or two won’t really mean all that much, just padding the stats at this point.

CHANCES OF MAKING IT 11:
Clearly it is way too early to forecast snow for NEXT Weekend…But, since it is a holiday Weekend (Easter), we can speculate just a bit. Long range weather models have been showing a decent sized storm somewhere in the Friday April 3 or Saturday April 4 timeframe for a while now. Latest trends are for a warmer storm (rain) but given that it is still a week away, a lot can happen. If you were a gambler, given the winter and early spring we have had thus far, wouldn’t you be more apt to bet on snow? Me too. Might as well go for the trifecta of holiday snows, Valentine’s Day, St. Patrick’s Day and now Easter. Then again, it would be nice to start playing some baseball and put this winter behind us wouldn’t it? Let’s start a new Weekend streak…how does sunny and warm sound?

I’ve never seen people so happy for rain before. Okay that might be an exaggeration, but I didn’t hear a single complaint about our wet Thursday. The simple idea of rain instead of snow was enough for most, and we finally had some mild temps to boot! Highs in the 50s, that wonderful smell of mild spring rain in the air, and dew points into the 40s/50s with a snow-eating fog. That’s a perfect recipe to start thinking about spring and stop thinking about the snow piles outside.

In fact, those piles had a nice big chunk taken out of them over the past 48 hours. We received a few photos revealing the ‘secrets of the snowbanks’ that started showing up again. Some of them were pretty amazing – like the one from Matt Cote in which a forgotten newspaper from January was finally revealed as the ice melted away. Others were a bit more depressing, like the ice dams that ripped out Anna Klein’s gutters or the broken up bushes outside of the MetroWest Daily News. But they all shared a common theme – disappearing snow and ice. This was most striking from areas around the Mass Pike and southward where temps stayed mild for the longest amount of time…shedding many inches of snow cover!

Perhaps the March meltdown has not been fast enough for you, and I wouldn’t blame you for feeling that way. It’s been another ridiculously cold month – in fact colder than last March which many remember as a frigid stretch. BUT – this is what the doctor ordered. It’s fairly amazing when you think about it – over 100″ of snow has almost all disappeared without major incident. Yes there has been damage from falling ice/snow, but flooding has not come up once. By means of compaction, sublimation, and melting; the job is getting done. ‘DO YOUR JOB’ can be applied to the sun, which always comes through in late March and April.

Temperature departures from average for the month of March so far. New England sticking out like a frozen thumb. A deep snow cover tends to load the odds in favor of more cold, and we’ve certainly seen plenty of that. Source: Weatherbell

The cold temps have allowed this snow to gradually disappear, and we’ve had spotty days of accelerated melt (like yesterday). There haven’t been any rainstorms producing more than an inch or so of liquid. Actually (and this is probably tough to believe) we’ve seen below average precipitation this year! How can that be, you ask? Well even though we endured record snow, almost all of our storms were very cold. That means the liquid to snow ratios were very high, and long story short there wasn’t a whole lot of moisture locked up in that snow.

We’re not out of the woods yet. There’s still snow out there, and there’s still snow to the north. There are several inches of snow water equivalent yet to be released. And a big rainstorm any time of the year can bring problems. But the fears of a horrible spring flood setup are slowly starting to wane, and we can only hope that such a trend will continue. We aren’t expecting any major precipitation events over the next several days and some more gradual melting will occur.

ECMWF EPS low locations for Easter Weekend. A cluster just off the New England coast is just one of several signs that a storm may be brewing. Source: Weatherbell

Here’s the only bad news I have to deliver – we’re not done with snow yet. There are several more chances (yes, several) in the wings that could help add instead of subtract to snow cover. The first one up is Saturday as a trough of instability reaches back into New England from a large ocean storm. This should help generate snowfall across the area, although there is still some uncertainty as to exactly where. It looks like a coating to up to a couple inches could fall during this time. Not major, but not exactly spring-like. The next opportunity comes Tuesday night into Wednesday. A clipper may come with enough cold air to bring another shot of rain & snow. And models have pretty consistently been hinting at Easter Weekend shenanigans in the Northeast. There’s always low confidence so far in advance, but the pattern suggests a potential storm that could include snow here yet again.

Spring snow doesn’t stick around for long, but it slows down our escape from a record winter. Hopefully next week’s disturbances trend to a drier and/or milder solution, but they will require a wary eye. If we can lose another 1-2″ of snow water equivalent over the next 8-15 days without a major storm, then we’ll be on our way to avoiding a spring flood. Fingers crossed that Mother Nature gives us a break after this rough stretch.

The plane he welcomed WBZ-TV on board of will be flying to Alaska later this week.

But this year, you’re hard pressed to find a snowier scene than New England.

During a mission NOAA has been flying since the late 1970s, the bird’s eye view helps predict what will happen when all of the white on the ground becomes wet.

A flight 500 feet above the ground measures exactly how much water is locked up in a record amount of snow.

Once airborne, Didier and his co-pilot Michael Hirsch will fly dozens of paths wherever they’re needed. They’re measuring something unseen to most, but something that is always there – radiation.

Patrick Didier and Michael Hirsch fly an NOAA plane. (WBZ-TV)

They’ll fly the same flight path in the fall time when there isn’t any snow. That will allow Didier and Hirsch to compare the radiation coming up out of the ground to the radiation during the winter months when there’s a lot of snow blocking that radiation’s signature.

“I hesitate to say basic nuclear physics, but you have potassium, thallium, and uranium and they’re all present in the soil and they’re releasing isotopes,” said Didier.

In other words, there are small traces of gamma radiation. If there’s water between that radiation source and the plane, the signal is weaker.

By comparing the values, NOAA can measure to the centimeter exactly how much water is ready to be released for a potential spring flood.

Visual notes are taken down, and once back on the ground, all this data gets to river forecasters within an hour.

The end result for us is the most accurate picture possible of our flood risk in the hopes that we’ll be prepared for winter’s final calling card.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/25/flying-over-snow-covered-new-england-helps-predict-spring-flooding/feed/26-To-8 Inches Of Snow In Boston Area To Melt This Weekhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/25/6-to-8-inches-of-snow-in-boston-area-to-melt-this-week/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/25/6-to-8-inches-of-snow-in-boston-area-to-melt-this-week/#commentsWed, 25 Mar 2015 14:42:44 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=621787In the next three days we will lose more than 50-percent of our snow pack.]]>BOSTON (CBS) – Searching for signs of spring?

We finally have some good news from the weather department.

In the next three days we will lose more than 50-percent of our snow pack. A good 6-to-8 inches of snow will be erased from our sidewalks and backyards by this weekend!

It will be our most significant period of snow melt thus far, likely revealing parts of our landscape not seen for months. If you are like me, you probably have lost a few gloves or perhaps a shovel or two to the immense snow piles in your backyard and around your driveway. Who knows what might be uncovered in the coming days? A missing or broken gutter? Your favorite garden gnome? Perhaps a dog bone or two? It will be like Christmas in March, a veritable treasure trove of missing items and junk are about to be revealed.

So why the sudden end to our mini ice age?

Well, there is the obvious and overriding factor of the changing seasons and the strengthening sun. But, over the next few days, several atmospheric ingredients will combine to create the perfect recipe for massive snow melt.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Mild Temperatures:

Did you know that high temperatures this time of year are supposed to be near 50 degrees? I only ask the question because we have spent so long below average in the last few months we may have forgotten what “normal” feels like.

Well, we are in for a solid three days of near to slightly above normal temperatures! What a novel concept! Temperatures will peak in the 50’s during the day on Thursday, likely falling just shy of the magical 60-degree mark.

Can you recall the last time we hit 60? We nearly did it on Christmas day, when temperatures peaked at 59. But you have to go all the way back to December 1, 2014 for our last official 60 in Boston – 114 days ago.

Even more important than the high temperatures in the next few days will be the amount of time we spend above freezing. We went above 32 degrees at 8 a.m. Wednesday morning, just the beginning of a 60-to-70 hour stretch above the freezing mark (until early Saturday).

(WBZ-TV graphic)

(WBZ-TV graphic)

High Dew Points:

One the most important and perhaps overlooked factors in melting snow is the dew point. When you add humidity to the air, condensation begins to occur and this releases heat to the rock solid, frozen snow pack. There is currently about 2-to-5 inches of water still locked within the snow and dew points in the 40’s and 50’s over the next few days will aid in releasing a good deal of that water.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Rain and Flooding:

Believe it or not, rain is not really that big of a factor in melting snow.

In fact, a cold rain can actually make things worse and literally just be absorbed by the snow, adding to the amount of water with the deep pack. It appears as though most of southern New England will see between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain between Wednesday night and early Friday. Combine that with the rapid snow melt, and we could see 2-to-3 inches of water funneling into local rivers and streams. Likely not enough for any major flooding concerns, but some minor urban flooding does seem likely.

This would be an excellent time to check the storm drain and be sure that it is not blocked or clogged.

By my estimation, it appears as though we have avoided what could have been a massive spring flooding issue.

Just a few weeks ago we had record levels of snow blanketing the entire region. Most rivers were iced over, and the potential was there for massive ice dams and historic spring flooding.

At one point we had nearly 10 inches of water locked within our snow cover. Had all of that been released at once by a week of warmth and rain storms, the damage could have been catastrophic.

The higher sun angle and chillier than normal daytime temperatures this month have allowed for a very slow and orderly melting process thus far.

We have already lost at least half of our snow pack from a few weeks ago and, therefore, avoided a worst case scenario. Rivers will continue to rise over the coming weeks as they always do this time of year, but if we can avoid any massive rainstorms and additional significant snow accumulations, I think we might just make it through “mud season” relative easily.

BOSTON (CBS) -Enough is enough. For the past eight weeks or so (starting around Jan. 23) we have experienced the harshest New England winter stretch ever recorded in our long and weathered history. This is not an exaggeration. Records haven’t just been challenged, they have been smashed, obliterated. We all deserve and NEED a break.

After the snowiest and coldest February ever recorded, March came in like a polar bear and looks to be going out the same way.

In fact, as of this writing, our average temperature this March is 31.8 degrees.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

This ties us with 1984 as the coldest March on record since they started taking readings at Logan Airport in 1936. A few relatively “mild” days later this week will likely prevent us from holding onto the number 1 spot, but either way March 2015 will go down as one of the coldest ever recorded.

And, likely something you don’t want to hear, this weather pattern isn’t going anywhere fast. As my colleague Barry Burbank writes in his blog from today, the atmospheric conditions responsible for all this record breaking cold and snow will likely remain for many more months! Of course, as the sun gets higher in the sky, spring and summer WILL arrive, temperatures WILL get warmer.

BUT, overall, the next several months have a much greater chance of being below normal than above in the temperature department. . . this will likely be the case into this summer and perhaps into next winter as well. . . yikes.

Regardless, let me assure you that summer is still going to come. There will be beach days. There will be plenty of time for golfing, fishing, grilling and all the other fun stuff that we love New England for. Might there be fewer 90 degree days? Maybe. Might our heatwaves be a bit shorter? Perhaps. But it is time to look on the bright side. My goal for the remainder of this blog is to attempt to convince you that your glass is indeed half full.

First things first, we actually hit an important milestone Today. For the first time since Sept. 11 of last year (more than 200 days) our sun will be setting at 7 p.m! For many of you that means driving home in sunlight, which I can say from experience makes a BIG difference. Looking forward to an 8 p.m. sunset? The first one will be on May 16, less than two months away.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Happy yet? Let’s keep going.

More warm milestones to look forward to…

Believe it or not, our average high temperature today should be 49 degrees. And by the end of this week, on March 28, our average will reach 50. Granted, this year has been anything but average so far, but it should bring some comfort to know that all we need to do is get back to “normal” and it will feel real good.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

And with each month going forward it only gets better and better.

We start averaging 60 degrees for a high on April 27th. A little less than a month later on May 26, our average high will reach 70. And by June 29 we will average 80, something nearly unthinkable at this point.

Right now we are averaging about 5 degrees below normal in March. If that is a BIG deal, do you think you will mind if we average 5 degrees below normal in June or July? Will you even notice? I doubt it.

Feeling better yet? OK, one more try…

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Picture this: You are basking in the warm sun, looking out over a field of green, a Fenway Frank in one hand and a cold beverage in the other. This could be you three weeks from today! While I cannot promise the “warm sun” thing or for that matter a comfortable seat, our beloved Red Sox will play their first of 81 games at Fenway Park on April 13.

Just four short weeks from today, those dirty, ugly piles of snow on the sidewalks will be replaced with thousands of cheering spectators during the Boston Marathon!

Shortly after that, you will be able to get into your gardens and perhaps even start up the lawnmower for the first time! May sound strange but I would do almost anything to mow my lawn right now. On average, the last freeze in the suburbs comes around May 10. Given the way things have been going, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if it came a few days later this year, but the point is, our time will come!

Can I promise you that you won’t see another flake fall this year? No. Nor can I promise that there won’t be any more bitter cold, winter-jacket-wearing days. But, Old Man Winter’s days are numbered. I have a feeling that after this historic winter, we are all going to appreciate spring and summer just a bit more this year. The flowers will be a bit more fragrant, the beach sand a bit softer, heck, I might even be more tolerant of a mosquito or two.

Mother Nature, we tip our hats to you, that was one heck of a winter. Now it’s our turn. Cheers New England, here’s to a long summer.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/23/march-2015-tied-for-coldest-ever-in-boston/feed/2Cycles Of The Weather Enginehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/23/cycles-of-the-weather-engine/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/23/cycles-of-the-weather-engine/#commentsMon, 23 Mar 2015 18:35:52 +0000Barry Burbankhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=621079There is an amazing connectivity between the oceans and the atmosphere. ]]>There is an amazing connectivity between the oceans and the atmosphere. Through extensive research over the past two decades, brilliant scientists/meteorologists have discovered many fascinating global factors that control our climate. There are multiple oscillations in the air and the sea and their variations and interactions that are in a state of flux and the whole amphitheater is governed by the sun. Sets and subsets of global factors are analyzed and conclusions are reached regarding dominating factors ie the big players for any particular season. Our weather, our climate engine clearly is cycling. Three years ago, we had 11 consecutive months of above to much above average temperatures climaxed by March 2012 which had a mean temperature anomaly of a whopping +8.4 degrees! These were Boston’s high temperatures in the warmest stretch of that month with 83 degrees on the 22nd smashing the old record high by 9 degrees!

Study the top graphic which is a sea surface temperature anomaly map. Focus on the ocean temperatures over the eastern Pacific. There is a minus anomaly there which means colder than average which is the flip of what has existed there over the past several months. This reverse depicting warmer than average temperatures in the eastern Pacific combined with a horseshoe of colder than average temperatures in the eastern Atlantic combined to induce a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation and positive Pacific North American Oscillation favoring the unusually cold weather here in the Northeast. (Credit: Many thanks to Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi for their great work and research at WeatherBell for educating me on this truly fascinating science of seasonal forecasting.)

It’s a black and white, day and night disparity. The trick is determining how these warmer and colder pools of ocean water are going to change going forward. Studies show that the warm water in the eastern Pacific and the corresponding positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is only temporary but it will take time to break down this zone of warm water as the PDO returns to its negative or cold phase. What does this portend for us in the months and seasons ahead? Advance modeling indicates it will be a slower deterioration than in past warm events. Consequently, it suggests that our summer will not be a super hot one but closer to or possibly slightly below average. This thinking leads me to believe that the Boston area will have about 10-12 days at 90 degrees or higher. The average number of 90-degree days is 14 but there were only 8 last summer and the first one didn’t happen until July 2! It was a truly atypical summer without heat waves! The chance of that repeating is slim but I am relatively confident in predicting no repeat of the summer of 2013 which had 18 days above 90 or the sweltering summer of 2010 contained a mammoth 25 days at 90 or higher! Interestingly, the record-breaking warm winter of 2012 was not followed by a hot summer. There were only 12 days at 90 or higher but this doesn’t necessarily mean that a super cold winter will be followed by unbearable heat in the summer either..

Just thought I’d give you some warming thoughts on this very cold day which seems like January. It’s back to reality with these astonishing temperatures at 2pm on March 23. They are about 20 degrees below average. Three years ago today it was a balmy 76! Well, hang in there because warmer days are just around the corner and that means this week. Get set for 55-60 degrees on Thursday!

Make it a great week!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/23/cycles-of-the-weather-engine/feed/3A Tale Of Two Extremeshttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/20/a-tale-of-two-extremes/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/20/a-tale-of-two-extremes/#commentsFri, 20 Mar 2015 09:15:06 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=620375Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook Running outside feels like you’re training for a Nordic biathlon. Walking the dog takes a few minutes of working yourself up before opening the door. Snow piles threaten […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

Running outside feels like you’re training for a Nordic biathlon. Walking the dog takes a few minutes of working yourself up before opening the door. Snow piles threaten to stare at you past Easter. And you can count the number of hours we’ve spent above 50 degrees since Christmas on two hands. It’s fair to say this recent stretch has been a little tough to take. February was downright historic for its persistent cold, producing the coldest month ever recorded in Worcester and Hartford. Plus, the 2nd coldest in Boston (although I would contend that since observations moved to Logan Airport after the top month of February of 1934 that this February was likely colder for the vast majority of the area). Although not quite as impressive, March has been no picnic. We’re on pace for one of the coldest March’s on record in Boston since observations moved to Logan in 1936. And to sum it all up – people are pretty sick and tired of winter.

What thickens this plot even more is the fact that we had the complete opposite end of the spectrum just 3 years ago. In March 2012, the country saw arguably the most unusual, record shattering late winter warmth that’s ever been observed in the modern era. Over 15,000 (not a typo) warm temperature records were set in the U.S. alone. This exact week in March of 2012, the coldest high temp we saw in Boston was 67! We haven’t seen temps that warm here since before Halloween. The 83º reading on March 22nd was the first time Boston had topped 80 so early in the season in 91 years. Almost ridiculous to think the same date this year (Sunday) the high will be 34. A ~50 degree difference.

There wasn’t any snow on the ground locally, but to our north 26″ of snow melted in Caribou, ME in just a week (which featured highs into the 70s). Imagine if every scrap of snow and ice in your yard currently vaporized over a few days. Chicago set record highs for 9 straight days with the 80s poking up into northern Michigan. In all, 24 states saw their warmest March ever recorded, with another 12 seeing a top three all-time warm March.

People can debate back and forth, but I’d certainly contend that the record warmth was a more impressive event. Never before have we seen records consistently blown away for days on end by such wide margins. Snow basically disappeared overnight across the norther tier states. Overnight low temps were breaking daytime highs. Numerous all-time record highs were set. And the heat was over a MUCH larger area than the cold we’re seeing here in 2015. Granted extreme winter warmth is a little easier to take than endless cold and snow. “Record pleasant weather, flowers in bloom!” doesn’t exactly scream hardship (although it did destroy the maple season in New York and New England).

Above you can see all the statewide rankings comparing 2 extreme winter months, and it becomes pretty clear which one had a larger magnitude. While brutal, the cold this February wasn’t enough to produce any coldest months on record (though a very respectable 9 states with their second coldest). You also notice that while it has been very cold in the east, the west has been cooking with several states seeing their warmest February ever recorded while they also face severe drought. One important thing to note while looking at both of these is that it’s difficult to cover all of the Lower 48 with record cold at once. That’s because in general you’re going to need continental polar air to do it. It’s tough to bring that chill straight down from the arctic and have it spill on both sides of the Continental Divide.

The two maps above are temperature anomaly comparisons (departures from average) comparing March 2012 (top) and the year to date here in 2015 (bottom). Interesting to note that it’s the United States that keeps getting the brunt of the extremes. In 2012 there was major cold and a dumping of snow in Alaska (Anchorage set it’s all-time snowiest season mark with over 133″…plus over 400″ of snow in Valdez). On the flip side, the heat went berserk in the Lower 48. This year the eastern U.S. sticks out like a frozen thumb compared to the rest of the globe.

Why do we care? Yes, there’s a lot of focus on ‘extreme events’ when it comes to the weather. There are a couple of reasons for that. First of all, it’s these wild swings that capture the attention of many meteorologists and even casual weather observers. When it’s very snowy, cold, hot, rainy, etc everyone takes notice. But the other, more important, reason is that months like these tell us how we should be preparing in the future.

Averages are useful for things like plant hardiness zones, knowing when it’s a good time to plan a vacation, or when we’re turning a corner. But it’s the extremes that give us the goal posts to plan for our lives and our infrastructure. We need to know how hot it can get, how strong storms can become, how high surge can pile up, or how quickly snow can bury us. Once the limits are learned, the best practice is to always plan for something a little worse. That way you’re not caught off guard by these unusual types of months or events, and hopefully we can limit our exposure and risk to weather that always has been and will continue to be extreme at times!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/20/a-tale-of-two-extremes/feed/0When Will The Snow Stop Falling?http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/18/when-will-the-snow-stop-falling/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/18/when-will-the-snow-stop-falling/#commentsWed, 18 Mar 2015 09:15:38 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=619675The only question on most people's minds is 'are we done yet?' ]]>BOSTON (CBS) – Yep, we did it. Whether you were rooting it on or throwing things every time you heard ‘record snow’ on TV or radio, we’ve already gone through the snowiest season in the recorded history of Boston (which goes back to 1891). And while other epic seasons were over a long period of time, the slope of our ascent was by far the steepest. Nearly all of it came in a month. Now that we’ve hit our milestones and spring is around the corner, the only question on most people’s minds is ‘are we done yet?’ Sadly the answer is no, we are not out of the woods just yet from both a climatological and forecasting point of view.

Let’s start with the climo, which is average weather over a long period of time. We know that in the past, it has snowed well beyond ‘winter’ in this part of the world. The main storm that comes to mind is of course the April Fool’s Blizzard of 1997, arguably one of the most incredible snowstorms in the modern era (I’d say it’s up there with the Blizzards of ’78 and ’69 and the freak October snowstorm in 2011). It crushed the region with heavy wet snow – over 2 feet in Boston and 33″ in Worcester. Until it was dethroned this year, it held the top spot for largest snowstorm in Worcester’s history.

The April Fool’s Blizzard of 1997, as seen by NOAA satellite.

But just because we remember the April Fool’s Blizzard doesn’t mean it can’t snow later. We have a Producer here who loves to remind me that when she was born on May 10th, 1977, there was plenty of snow coming down. Interior southern New England was slammed with almost unfathomable snow for May; 20″ in Norfolk, Conn., 12.7″ in Worcester, and 9.5″ at Bedford, Mass. Boston received only 0.5″, but still a very late measurable snow for the city. We have even picked up a ‘trace’ of snow in June in Boston! Many have asked if this late season snow counts toward the record. Indeed it does – any snow that falls through June will all count as part of the 2014-2015 season.

Looking back at recent years where we’ve notched new records, it’s interesting to note the upward trend. For a long time, the snowiest season on record had been set in 1947-48, where 89.2″ of snow floated on down in the city. At that time, the observations were still being made at Boston Logan Airport. Then came along the winter of 1993-94 and set a new mark at 96.3″. We didn’t wait long for a new champion – the incredible, drawn out, nonstop winter of 1995-96 produced a brand new mark by becoming the first recorded season to top the century mark – 107.6″. And that brings us to our current state, standing in the #1 position with 108.6″. It’s interesting to note that each time a new record was set, it beat the old one by about 8-10%. For what it’s worth, if that trend continues, we could end up around 115-118″ before things end here in Boston this season. Let’s hope past performance is not an indicator of future results in this case!

That brings us up to the forecast – what’s in the cards for the weeks to come? I’m sure you’ve noticed that it hasn’t exactly been a balmy March so far. We’ve manged to hit 50 a couple times in most towns, but other than that it’s more of the same old song and pattern with below average temps. In fact, we’re probably going to end up with a colder March here in 2015 than we had last year! Goes without saying it has been a tough stretch of weather to deal with – but at least our averages are moving up.

So far as snowy chances goes in the near-term, there could be some snow showers around Wednesday but not adding up to much of anything toward our seasonal total. That should be a different story to the north, as snow showers should be directed into western facing slopes of northern New England – especially Vermont. Ski season will continue unabated – there’s barely been a raindrop in that part of the area for months now. Hard pressed to find better conditions! With no foreseeable warm-ups you’ll easily get some turns in for Easter this year.

The next more significant snow threat arrives late Friday. There is still a decent amount of uncertainty as to whether this storm will get far enough north to bring us plowable snow, or hang just enough to the south to graze us with some low-impact flakes. The ECMWF model has been the most bullish and consistent model for days now – continually bringing accumulating snow into southern New England. It’s ensemble members are also in good agreement that it will be far enough north to have at least SE Mass shoveling. For what it’s worth – the European model has also been destroying the competition in recent weeks with extremely high ‘verification scores.’ It had a rough patch early this winter, but seems to be rebounding and forecasting the pattern very well.

ECMWF EPS low locations from the 12z run on Tuesday, March 17th. Tight clustering tends to increase forecast confidence on where the low will set up. Source: Weatherbell

So the early call here is that snow will be likely, especially from the Pike southward. We may be able to pick up a few inches in Boston…putting us up over 110″ for the season. Keeping an eye on this one over the next couple days. Are we finished there? Probably not. This is the pattern that just doesn’t want to let up (we’ve generally been in the same jet stream setup over North America for about 2 years now, on and off but mostly on). The air mass progged to come in here Sunday will again be well below average, although not quite to record levels Sunday night. In any case, there’s no real warmth to keep snow completely out of the picture.

CFSv2 temperature anomaly outlook for days 2.5-7.5 (essentially end of this week into the middle of next week). Ensemble members in strong agreement for well below average temperatures in eastern Canada/Northeast U.S. Source: Weatherbell

Longer range models like the ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 keep winter hanging tough well into April. An East Coast storm has been on/off on the models for the late March time frame, and another lurking in early April. For sure, all three of these storms mentioned could miss us, and not a single person would complain about that. But the point is that a risk is still here for weeks to come for some additional snow. A silver lining – snow this time of year doesn’t stick around very long. The sun goes to work, especially as we head into April. The main issue with more snow would be that it could add to our still significant snow pack that hasn’t been melting in a hurry..and won’t be either. We’re not hitting 60 until April, and may barely pick up a day or two over 50 for the rest of March. We don’t want to add any additional water equivalent into our snow pack, because that would heighten our spring flood risk.

ECMWF EPS Ensemble Mean 500mb heights. The signal for deep troughing in the east continues all the way to Easter and beyond. Source: Weatherbell

In the end there’s no doubt the temperature outlooks are easier than the storm outlooks. Where we stand we know that there’s plenty of cold still coming and that March will go down with a large negative temperature departure. It’s very likely this continues into early April. But whether these storms hit or miss us is much less certain. All we can do is hope that we finally start missing a few of these, and that we can continue a gradual melt as we exit a brutal winter!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/18/when-will-the-snow-stop-falling/feed/0Revelations And Reservationshttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/15/revelations-reservations/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/15/revelations-reservations/#commentsMon, 16 Mar 2015 03:59:31 +0000Barry Burbankhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=618908Would you like to be rewarded for enduring this astonishing, relentless winter? Well, you can now brag that you lived through historical times in Boston's snowiest season ever with records dating back to the winter of 1890-91! It ]]>Would you like to be rewarded for enduring this astonishing, relentless winter? Well, you can now brag that you lived through historical times in Boston’s snowiest season ever with records dating back to the winter of 1890-91! It became official just after 7pm Sunday as the National Weather Service reported that Logan Airport received 2.9″ of fresh snow in occasional near whiteout conditions for about 3 hours. That boosted the seasonal total from 105.7 to 108.6″. These heavy snow showers erupted as an upper level low pressure system and associated pool of cold unstable air passed across eastern New England in tandem with a north-south coastal trough where convergence and extra lifting existed. This convection triggered lightning and thunder in a few locations over southeastern MA!

So, now that we got the gold medal, you might say it’s time to move on and time for the switch to immediately flip for us to enjoy instant spring. After all, look how warm the rest of the nation was on Sunday. Once again, we were in the cold corner of the country. Despite some melting last week with a max of 57, the overall weather pattern still favors masses of cold air charging out of Canada into mainly the northeastern portion of the United States. Additionally, global factors in play matched with analog years suggest that a few more snow threats may be in the works. This is not a definite forecast yet but we need to closely monitor upstream atmospheric perturbations. Any one distinct short wave has the potential of developing a wave of low pressure which could impact the region. Over the next few weeks, the southern stream will be busy with its batches of moisture and the northern stream will continue to conveyor belt the cold into our area. Any phasing of the streams will be a problem. The seasonal shift of the jet stream eventually will deliver some warmth that we deserve but patience is still required. At mid-month, March is running about 4 degrees below the average but I am much more optimistic about April turning out near to somewhat above average in temperature with a similar outcome for May.

The main driver of the weather last summer through this winter has been the warm water of the eastern Pacific Ocean. This produced a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure near the West Coast of North America resulting in downstream winds distributing masses of air containing below to much below average temperatures from Canada into the eastern portion of the country. Latest modeling guidance indicates that warm water is not going to modify and turn gradually cooler. Additionally, the sea-surface temperatures of the Atlantic are projected to decline and that is a switch from last year. Overall, these oceanic events imply ridging remaining rather dominant out west and troughing near and offshore over the western Atlantic. The conclusion is to prognosticate a June-July-August anomaly of below average temperatures. Last year, while the months of May, June and July all were slightly under a degree above average, the mean temperature of August was more than a degree below average. For many of us, it was one of the most comfortable summers in many many years which prompted complaints from those folks who crave hot weather. Amazingly, there was not a single heat wave in Boston last summer. There were only 8 days at 90 degrees or higher which compares to the average of 14. I am predicting a summer that will more likely mimic last summer so 8 to 10 days at 90 or higher in Boston with closer to 14-16 days farther northwest of Boston. Contrast that with the super hot summer of 2010 that featured 25 days at 90 or higher with more than 30 days in some inland towns!

In the short term, after near average temperatures tomorrow and St. Patrick’s Day, another shot of arctic air will blast us on Wednesday with temperatures not reaching 32 in most locations. The strong wind will make it feel like the teens! After that, we can look forward to the official beginning of spring at 6:45 pm on Friday.

Make it a great week!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/15/revelations-reservations/feed/1Weather Shenanigans For St. Patrick’s Day Weekendhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/09/weather-shenanigans-for-st-patricks-day-weekend/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/09/weather-shenanigans-for-st-patricks-day-weekend/#commentsMon, 09 Mar 2015 23:48:54 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=617362Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook First the good news – it’s fantastic out. Much deserved signs of spring are all around us this week as we shake off some of winter’s icicles and […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

First the good news – it’s fantastic out. Much deserved signs of spring are all around us this week as we shake off some of winter’s icicles and think about the season to come. Highs in the 40s (and even some low 50s possible Wednesday) will provide an excellent gradual melt of our still impressive snow pack through the mid-week, and it’s our warmest stretch since Christmas. Even when we cool off for Thursday and Friday (upper 30s to near 40) the melting will continue. This is exactly what we needed to see happen to slowly reduce our flood risk. Plus, we have Daylight Saving Time raising evening spirits with twilight to 7pm. Things are looking up!

The last time we hit 50º in Boston was the day the Patriots beat the Colts for the AFC Championship.

That being said, it’s a big weekend on tap. St. Patrick’s Day events will be in full swing, and Boston Marathon runners are gearing up for some very long training runs. Plus – it’s the weekend! We’ve all got stuff to do. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear that the weather is going to treat us too kindly, and we may have to use the dreaded s-word again.

The energy you see on this 500mb vorticity map that’s off the Aleutian Islands of Alaska is the parcel we’ll be tracking. It heads toward the West Coast, climbs a ridge into Canada, then shoots down into the Northeast over the weekend. Source: Weatherbell

The energy for this storm is still a long way away – not even to Alaska yet. So of course there will be some forecast fluctuations over the next few days as that energy is better sampled and the atmospheric picture gets clearer. But models have steadfastly promoted a storm for Saturday and Sunday, which may even be able to hang out close enough to the coast to impact our weather on Sunday. We can say there is high confidence that we’ll be dealing with some messy conditions. What we don’t have high confidence on yet is exactly what is going to be falling from the sky?

18z GFS model run shows a cold high over SE Canada, and already a solid CAD (cold air damming) signature east of the Appalachians. Source: Weatherbell

In favor of a colder solution, we have snow on the ground (sorry to say it won’t all melt this week) and a pretty strong cold high pressure over New England to start. It’s a bit unclear how long this will be able to hold down the fort and keep our thermal profiles cold enough for snow. Early indications are that we should at least start with some snowflakes on Saturday before changing over to a chilly rain.

Lucky us, we get the trough this weekend. Vast majority of the country is in full spring thaw mode.

In favor of a warmer solution is the storm origin – which will be coming at us out of the southern states. The low to mid-level flow looks to be generally southerly, which should be able to erode the dome of cold air in place initially. The ECMWF is particularly mild with this storm, bringing us very limited snow in the area. Its ensemble members also shy away from significant snow or ice (although there are enough snowy solutions to be wary). The milder solution is a little higher impact in my mind, because it’ll increase the amount of liquid precipitation to exacerbate flooding issues. The ground is still frozen, we’ll have been busy melting snow all week long, and if we add over an inch of new rain there will be a whole lot of standing water and potentially some basement/ceiling issues to go along with it. Definitely a storyline to monitor through this week.

ECMWF EPS mean sea level pressure anomaly for Sunday morning. This gives the consensus weight to where the storm will set up, just east of New England with us on the cold side. Source: Weatherbell

As the storm continues on Sunday we get another good shot for snowflakes. Colder air will move back in and the back edge of the storm should provide the precipitation. Sitting several days out, it’s still impossible to know exactly where that wrap-around band will set up. Then it becomes a question of how quickly the low spins away from us. The ECMWF is more progressive and gives us a mainly dry Monday. The GFS lingers the LP off the coast and keeps rain/snow chances around into at least the first half of Monday. At this point, I’d favor the faster solution a little more and keep a mainly dry/cool Monday in the forecast.

The Bottom Line: The early call is for wet and raw conditions both days this upcoming weekend. We’ll need to monitor how much rainfall is expected for any potential flooding issues. I do think we’ll end up seeing some snowfall, but it likely won’t be significant enough to cause major problems locally. Will it be enough to break the snow record in Boston? We need 1.9″, and I don’t think we’re going to pull it off with this storm. We’ll see how the data trends heading through this week and adjust accordingly. The highest risk zone for accumulating snowfall is central New Hampshire eastward through Maine, where it’s not out of the question that totals could reach a foot. In any case it’s classic March weather – two steps forward and one back as we break out of winter and proceed to spring.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/09/weather-shenanigans-for-st-patricks-day-weekend/feed/7When Will The Snow Be Gone?http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/09/when-will-the-snow-be-gone/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/09/when-will-the-snow-be-gone/#commentsMon, 09 Mar 2015 16:38:26 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=617226Typically, with 3 days of temperatures in the 45-50 degree range, you would lose about 2-to-4 inches of snow pack.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150309111425140AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) – As we begin to wind down from what is likely to go down as the snowiest winter in Boston’s recorded history, we are left with one thing – snow.

And lots of it.

The current average snow depth in southern New England is right around 2 feet. That’s 2 feet on our baseball fields, 2 feet on our soccer fields, 2 feet on our lawns and gardens.

Somewhere, buried in mounds of white, the green grass of spring is there, waiting to take in its first warm rays of sunshine in months. Getting rid of those giant snow piles will not be easy. There are several factors involved, most of which naturally, are weather related.

MARCH SUNSHINE

March sunshine is a beautiful thing. In less than two weeks the center of the sun will be crossing the equator. As the sun gets higher and higher in the northern hemisphere sky, we are gaining more than 2 minutes of sunlight each and every day.

By mid-to-late March, the sun literally starts to devour the snow. So, in most “average” years, the spring sports schedules are free to get underway in the month of March, albeit it during some very chilly days.

But, as you all know, this year is far from average.

February was not only the snowiest month ever recorded but also the second coldest month in our history. Through the first nine days of March, snow has fallen on 5 days and temperatures are averaging more than 7 degrees below average. Not nearly as harsh as February, but far from an “early spring” like many had hoped.

‘HEAT WAVE!’

All the more reason why the next three days are going to feel a lot like a “heat wave!”

High temperatures will be in the 40’s Monday through Wednesday, with a few towns even nicking 50 Wednesday afternoon.

This “surge” of warmth is actually only getting us back to average. We have spent so many days in the teens and 20’s I think we are starting to get used to it. I have seen more than a few folks driving around with their windows down when temperatures have topped 30. The term “hardy New Englanders” has taken on a whole new meaning.

HOW MUCH WILL MELT?

So how much snow can we expect to vanish this week?

It depends.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Typically, with 3 days of temperatures in the 45-50 degree range, you would lose about 2-to-4 inches of snow pack. As with most things weather related, this is not a cut and dry process.

The primary factors behind a spring snowmelt are air temperature and the intensity of the sun.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Other things to consider:

Humidity: The more moisture in the air, the faster the melting process. Snow will not melt well on a very dry day.

This is certainly a better option than driving plows over the well-manicured fields.

THE PHYSICS

If all of that isn’t enough to make your head spin, there is actually a good deal of physics behind the process by which snow melts.

Snow will melt from top to bottom. The heat absorbed by the very top layer causes the snow crystals to break down. Once the gravitation force grows stronger than the adhesive force which binds the crystals together, the drops start to flow downward through the snowpack. Believe it or not, there is a LOT more to this process, complete with very complex equations. Google it someday if you have some free time, it will boggle your mind!

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The bottom line – we will lose several more inches off of our record snow pack this week.

Unfortunately, this process will be slowed towards the end of the week by the return of chillier daytime and night time temperatures.

And then comes this weekend, we are tracking the potential for a wintry mix type event.

It’s too early for specifics, but it may be one of those start as snow and gradually change to ice or rain events like we had last week.

It is possible that we could replenish all of the snow lost this week through melting by this weekend storm, making no net progress.

One step forward, two steps back.

Looking in the longer range, temperatures will likely remain below average for most of this month.

However, *if* we can stay snow-free, I would still anticipate that the majority of our snow pack will be gone by the end of March. Of course, that is a very big *if*.

We’ve checked off quite a bit on our winter notables list. Snowiest month, coldest month, snowiest stretches, most consecutive days with accumulating snowfall, a couple Top 10 snowstorms, a pair of blizzards, to name a few. Still waiting on that pesky snowiest season on record accolade, but I suppose there’s still some time to finish the job. Let’s just say quite a few people want to start talking about when all of this ends, and we may have some improving news on that front.

In the short term, how about a shot at 40 degrees today? The last time it happened in the Boston area, the Patriots were still finishing their AFC Championship champagne. It was January 19th, it hadn’t even really snowed yet this winter, and some were wondering if it would be the season without snow at all. We know how that story ends. Well today we should finally reach that Mt. Everest of winter 2015 temperatures again. It’s not much, but it’s a start. Let’s just skip over the two very chilly days in the 20s for Thursday and Friday for the sake of our sanity, and get to the pattern change stuff.

For this weekend, it’s the same general idea we’ve been living with over the past two months. Trough in the jet stream hanging out over the Northeast. BUT, it’s a drier trough. Less vigorous energy diving down and not bombing out near the coast, and so all we get are passing clouds and a couple chances for snow showers/flurries Saturday through Monday. All the while, highs will make it into the 30s. The 30s! It’s been tough to even string together 3 days of temps in the 30s for the better part of the last 7 weeks, so no complaining. With the increasing sun angle that’s comparable to early October, it’ll help to slowly decrease our snow pack – the ultimate goal. PLUS we get Daylight Saving Time as we ‘Spring Forward’ early Sunday morning. Twilight until 7pm? Yes please.

That brings us to next week, which is looking like what the doctor ordered. Again…not a whole lot of big storminess is lurking out there. Through Thursday we may stay mainly dry with highs in the 30s and 40s, and that’s precisely what we want. Releasing some of the 4-6″ of liquid equivalent that’s locked up in our snow pack during the day, and slowing that process down at night. The 30s and 40s feel excellent at this point, and I’m sure more than a few Boston Marathon trainers will be happy to run without their faces freezing.

ECMWF Ensemble Mean 500mb height anomaly at the end of next week. Shows a ridge building eastward into the Northeast. Likely not a permanent feature, but should allow for a reprieve from the arctic express we’ve been dealing with! Source: Weatherbell

Things get more interesting in the middle of the month. Most models have been strongly hinting at a ridge developing in the middle of the country, and that’s where the highest probability of some real warmer temperatures will be. However, there’s a decent chance that some of that warmth and ridging will be able to build over the Northeast, at least for a little while. At the same time some potential rain events will start to crop up toward mid-month, too. I think this is the first time I’ve written ‘warmth’ and ‘rain’ in the same blog since December.

ECMWF Ensemble mean 850mb temp anomaly. Basically, we look at these to see where warmer than average air masses are aloft, which can many times mix down to the surface (that depends on the exact setup…sometimes inversions or a cold ocean wind can put a stop to this). The middle of the nation is definitely expecting a warm-up…and we’ll get one relative to what we’ve been dealing with too. Source: Weatherbell

I’m not 100% bullish on a real ‘torch’ scenario with us seeing strikingly warm temperatures with this pattern flip, but I do think it’s going to start to feel a whole lot better. Keep in mind that by next weekend, the averages in Boston are a high of 47 and a low of 32. I can’t even remember what that feels like. So even *average* temps by that time frame would feel most excellent. If we can actually achieve a few days of above average readings, that means 50s for us. People would hug each other in the streets, dogs and cats would call a truce, and spontaneous flash mobs would break out to celebrate the occasion.

Return to the same old game? ECMWF weeklies show a strong trough signal returning to the eastern U.S. to end the month and start April. Would bring more storminess and colder temps. Source: Weatherbell

This warmer pattern may not be able to hold for long as the ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 hint at some colder than average temps and troughing returning to the Northeast for the end of the month, but it’s definitely something to still look forward to and a sign of hope that winter is slowly running out of gas. Even a ‘below average’ day at the end of the month is still in the 40s…and not racing forward into very warm temps will hopefully keep our flooding concerns at a relative minimum over the next month. Something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.

CFSv2 sub-monthly look at temperature anomalies for the end of March and start of April. At least ‘average’ isn’t so cold anymore by this time frame. Source: Weatherbell

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/04/climbing-out-of-the-deep-freeze/feed/2Boston Snow Record Could Be Set This Weekhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/02/boston-snow-record-could-be-set-this-week/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/02/boston-snow-record-could-be-set-this-week/#commentsMon, 02 Mar 2015 16:17:11 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=615000We have challenged just about every winter milestone in the books this year and now our eyes are set on the big prize.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150302111521497AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) – I am going to refrain from using the classic, go-to line when referring to an early March storm. You know, the whole “In like a lion…”

I feel like we are way past catch phrases this winter, we are better than that here in Boston.

Snowmaggedon, Snow Blitz, 6 more weeks of winter. Please, we are skipping the cutesy stuff and aiming higher, much higher. We are shooting for records. Not just run-of-the-mill, daily records either. We are going for the big ones.

We have challenged just about every winter milestone in the books this year and now our eyes are set on the big prize.

The holy grail of New England winter records. The equivalent of Joe Dimaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, Ted Williams .406 batting average or Barry Bonds 762 home runs (except our winter isn’t on steroids, at least not that we know of yet).

Of course, I am speaking of the greatest season snow total in Boston’s recorded history, 107.6 inches in 1995-1996. This has stood in the number one spot without any real challengers, besting the former number two season (1993-94) by nearly a foot.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

I say “former number two” because the winter of 2014-2015 now sits as the new number two, with 104.1 inches after Sunday night’s 2.1 inches.

Just 3.5 inches from the number one slot, with the winter we have had, and it only being March 2, is there any doubt we won’t break the record?

I would say it is a severe long shot. If I were a betting man, I would lay the odds of NOT setting a new record around 100-to-1, perhaps even higher. In fact, as it looks now, there is a better than 50-50 chance of breaking it this week!

A complex, spring-like winter storm is on the way, set to arrive Tuesday night. There will be snow, ice, rain and then perhaps more snow, literally a “kitchen sink” type storm. Let get into the details.

Tuesday Night:

The storm arrives after 7 p.m., starting as snow for all of southern New England. A heavy and wet 2-to-3 inches will accumulate in the first several hours, with perhaps some isolated 4 or 5 inch amounts well north and west of Boston.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Around 10 p.m., warmer air will begin to stream in at upper levels of the atmosphere, changing the snow to an icy mix along the South Coast, Cape and Islands.

There will be no stopping the warmth from overtaking this storm. It will continue to flood in, first well above the surface, changing snow to sleet and freezing rain, and eventually at ground level, making a change to plain rain.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The tricky part of this forecast will be timing out that transition at the very bottom layer of the atmosphere (where we live). The deep snowpack will keep the ground refrigerated for quite some time. The cold air will be stubborn to dislodge, leading to some ice accretion, up to .1 of an inch on many surfaces late Tuesday night.

Wednesday Morning-Afternoon:

By dawn Wednesday nearly all the coldest air (below 32 degress) will have been scoured out leaving just plain old rain falling from the sky.

Even though surface temperatures will be above freezing, there could still be some icy areas given how cold and frozen much of our landscape is.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

There won’t be a whole lot of precipitation left on Wednesday, perhaps an additional quarter-to-half inch of rain during the early morning. Temperatures will rise well into the 30’s in southern New England during the afternoon, perhaps as high as 40 in Boston.

Wednesday Night-Thursday:

The storm exits the region and cooler air drains back in. Temperatures will dip back below freezing. While the storm will be long gone, a stalled out frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary to our south. Additional waves of moisture will ride along this boundary, bringing snow back into southern New England.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

This is a tricky forecast and a rather unusual setup with more precipitation arriving post-frontal, in the colder air. From 7 p.m. Wednesday through the day on Thursday, all of southern New England will be at risk for several additional inches of snow.

The highest risk of more plowable snowfall will be south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. This could be the final push needed to put us over the edge and into unchartered territory for seasonal snowfall in Boston. Any additional snowfall would likely taper off later on Thursday afternoon and evening.

In a nutshell, expect a very wet, sloppy couple of days ahead.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Additional strain will be put on roofs from the coming snow-ice-rain-snow sandwich. The days of “February fluff” are over. The storms keep coming, but now with more of a spring-like flavor.

After the snow exits Thursday we should stay dry through the weekend.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The next shot at additional storminess looks to be around next Monday.

At least this time it will come during Daylight Saving Time.

The clocks go ahead an hour this weekend.

Small steps. Spring will come, baseball will be played, the grass is out there – somewhere.

Any accumulation we get will inch us closer to the all-time snowiest Boston winters ever recorded. We are close to number one!

This Sunday snow storm is a quick mover and should be out of New England just prior to the Monday morning commute. Although, we will have to plow our driveways and dig out our cars to get to work.

A winter storm warning covers southeastern Massachusetts, Buzzards Bay and Coastal Connecticut through 7am Monday. A winter weather advisory is posted for the rest of Massachusetts, CT, RI and southern Vermont until 7am Monday. Anticipating tricky travel with the decent snowfall accumulation, reduced visibility, and some high snowfall rates in southern CT, RI and SE MA.

We expect 3-6″ of snow along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. 1-3″ to the north of there. 3-6″ also for most of Cape Cod and the islands. The bulls eye for heavy snow looks to set up along the South Coast and around the Cape Cod Canal. That’s where we could see 6-8″ of snow by 4am Monday.

The heaviest snow continues through midnight, then exits after that. Here is the timing:

Monday will leave us a tough day for digging out. It will gradually become clear (with a few flurries in the Berkshires), but it will become windy. Winds could gust between 35 and 45 mph from the west, northwest during the afternoon which means blowing and drifting snow.

Our next system moves in Tuesday evening into Wednesday. First, New England will get snow, changing to a wintry mix, then to freezing rain by Wednesday as highs surge into the lower 40s. There are still a lot of questions about how this one will pan out, so stay tuned to the WBZ Weather Team!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/03/01/meteorological-spring-begins-with-snow/feed/2The Most Extreme Winter Month Ever Observed in New England?http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/27/the-most-extreme-winter-month-ever-observed-in-new-england/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/27/the-most-extreme-winter-month-ever-observed-in-new-england/#commentsSat, 28 Feb 2015 01:49:16 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=614662Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook The now infamous ‘slurpee waves’ of Nantucket – nearly frozen after a historically cold month. Photo Courtesy: Jonathan Nimerfroh. Is hyperbole a problem in the world of weather? […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

Is hyperbole a problem in the world of weather? You bet your frozen face it is. But there’s no doubt a case can be built to support February 2015 as the most extreme winter month observed over a large portion of New England. Granted our weather records only date back 100-140 years, depending on the site. In the large scheme of things, it’s a climatological eye-blink. So we won’t pretend it’s the snowiest EVER or the coldest EVER (major pet peeve of mine)…just observed. And so the bottom line is that no one alive, or even those recently before us, have had to go through a month as cold and snowy as this one.

Let’s start with the snow. While we’ve started measuring storms in inches instead of feet as of late, February posted a monster number. We smashed the previous snowiest month on record by nearly 2 whole feet. Three separate storms produced over a foot of snow in Boston – a feat never observed before in a single month. Snow depth records were set in numerous locations as it piled up over 3 feet deep. Snowflakes fell on 19 out of 28 days in the Boston area. And we’re on the cusp of breaking the record for the snowiest all-time season. You won’t find many claiming that the snow this month wasn’t anything short of superlative. Many have written or called in to say they’ve never seen ice dams, icicles, or snow piles like they have this year.

Even though the biggest departures from a ‘typical’ winter have been here in Southern New England, most of the Northeast is seeing well above average snowfall. Maine has seen many of the same storms that we’ve endured around here. Places like Bangor and Eastport have been blowing away records left and right, including a jaw-dropping 132.5″ over 5 weeks. Several cities have made it into the century club (we’re coming for you, Buffalo). Even the comparatively paltry 28″ in NYC is above average for the season.

Eastport has had a record setting 132.5" of snow since 1/24, and 153.9" for the 2014-15 season! #mewx

Snow is one thing, but persistent cold can claim equal rarity and acclaim this month. Friday brought yet another record – longest stretch ever observed without hitting 40F in Boston. We’re at 39 days and counting…and we’ll add at least a few more before that one ends (thinking it may stop Wednesday PM). Earlier in the month we reached the 2nd longest streak without hitting freezing (15 days, 1 day shy of the record). And every single day this month has been below average except one – Sunday the 22nd. It was a measly 1 degree above average for the date. I mean… c’mon.

Sidebar:Worcester should nab its coldest month, but Boston will fall short of 1934. I think this is a bit of an unfair shake, because the observation site moved in 1936 to Logan Airport, For all intents and purposes, this is a terrible place for a climate site because it does not represent where most people live. It’s warmer in the winter, and cooler in the spring/summer. If the climate site was still in the city as it was in 1934, I think we would be in the top spot. The night time lows this month have been much higher at Logan because it’s extremely tough to get the winds to go calm at a site that’s basically in the middle of the water. There’s always a thermal gradient there (think our coldest nights, where it’s -15 in Waltham but the water temp is 30 in the Harbor. Some wind is going to flow between those points). The coldest temps often come on calm nights when the cold air settles to the surface and there’s no mixing of the atmosphere (we call that decoupling). I guarantee you that on nights when it was 5 at Logan, it was -2 on the Common inside the city. Over the course of a month, that makes a huge difference. In any case, what we can say is its the coldest month recorded since measurements have been taken at Logan, and only the 2nd month to finish with an average temp in the 10s.

#Rochester's 24 days with measurable #snow thus far in Feb. is the greatest number of days with measurable snow for the month of February.

When you put it all together it’s not just cold here, but all over the Northeast and Great Lakes. Even Cleveland will set the mark for coldest February ever recorded! It’s been nearly 16F below average in February in Cleveland…that’s a ridiculous level of cold. Bangor is set to blow away its coldest month ever recorded by ~2F. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you’re talking averages over a long period of record…to beat an all-time mark like that is incredible. Montpelier, Rochester, Buffalo, Hartford, Worcester, Islip, Bridgeport, Portland, etc will all see their coldest February’s, most of them their coldest overall month. Caribou, ME hasn’t hit freezing all month – the first time that’s happened since 1993. Syracuse set the mark for its longest streak without hitting freezing – the city hasn’t topped it for the entire month either. They’ll obliterate their all-time coldest month by THREE degrees.

The point of this exercise isn’t to make you more depressed about this historically miserable month, but to point out how extreme and unusual it actually was. It’s not just your run of the mill winter fatigue setting in. We’ve lived through a level of cold and snow that hasn’t been touched in well over a hundred years. Won’t be many complaints if we wait another 100 to do it again.

Even more striking is not just the cold and snow of this year, but the extremes we’ve seen over several years. Winter 2013-14 was a bit of an appetizer for this one, although it was certainly harsh enough. But then we turn the clock back to 2012…and remember what we were seeing? One of the most surreal months I have ever witnessed in weather. I’ll never forget how warm March of 2012 was, and how nighttime lows were beating daytime record highs across a gigantic portion of the country. Temps topped 60F for 11 days in Boston, and topped 70F for 7 of them! Snow only measured 7.7″ that winter (climatological) season.

In the course of just 3 years, parts of New England will have seen their warmest, coldest, and snowiest cold season months ever recorded. The 2011-2012 winter produced the 3rd least snowy season on record, too. Talk about weather whiplash.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/27/the-most-extreme-winter-month-ever-observed-in-new-england/feed/0Accumulating Snow Tuesday Nighthttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/24/accumulating-snow-tuesday-night/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/24/accumulating-snow-tuesday-night/#commentsTue, 24 Feb 2015 15:49:35 +0000daniellenileshttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=613131For all cold related factoids, I refer you to Eric’s blog from earlier this morning – great info & no need to repeat it here. Let’s focus on the snow on the way for tonight. […]]]>For all cold related factoids, I refer you to Eric’s blog from earlier this morning – great info & no need to repeat it here. Let’s focus on the snow on the way for tonight. A quick moving area of low pressure will pass to our southeast tonight grazing us with a period of light to moderate snow. Our snow ratios will be high with this event (as has been the case for many of our snowstorms this winter) due to the cold air in place, so the snow will be fluffy and accumulate quickly as it comes down.

Timeline:

Clouds thicken this evening, snow arrives to the south coast around 11 PM, spreading into Boston around midnight and to the NH border near 1 AM. The steadiest snow falls from 1 AM to 4 AM, tapering off from west to east between 5-6AM. In other words, it’s in and out pretty quickly…gone by rush hour. Plows will be out and some slippery spots will remain, so it’s worth leaving extra time for your commute.

Amounts:

A widespread 2-4” in eastern MA (128 points east) with a few locally higher amounts possible. Outside of 128, it’s a coating to 2” for most.

The sun will be out early tomorrow and temps won’t be nearly as cold as today. In fact, the strong sun angle will promote melting tomorrow as highs come up around the freezing mark during the afternoon.

After that? More cold. We’ll be well below average again to end the week. Watch for some icy patches Thursday morning.

Chances are you’re reading this on yet another morning that started out below zero while your desktop had other tabs open for travel sites to tropical locations. Or just as possible, you may not have even noticed. There’s no doubt that many of us are starting to not even notice the cold, or at least not as much as we normally would. The last two months have produced a Minnesotan feel in New England, and we’re about to bury some serious records when it comes to cold.

Let’s start off with something that drove me crazy over the weekend – we had an above average day of temperatures. Am I insane? Yes. But – if you’re passionate about weather and odd/rare events – you’d feel the same way. Sunday was ONE stinkin’ degree above average for the date, and in doing so will be the only day above average for the entire month. Now it just looks like a stain on an otherwise perfect month of extreme cold. Did I enjoy it? Yes of course. But you have to admit that seeing an entire month of cold would have looked a lot more impressive.

Be that as it may, we’re still accomplishing some major feats. We saw the 2nd longest streak of subfreezing days ever recorded in Boston (15). Not too shabby, but it ended on Saturday. Never fear, we are going to flat out break a record today (Tuesday). It’ll be the 19th day without hitting the freezing mark this month – the most ever recorded for a February. Previously that record had been set allllll the way back in 1885. We should add at least 3 more before February comes to a close.

How about days below 40F? As delightful as Sunday felt, most still didn’t reach that mark. You have to go all the way back to January 19th to have experienced weather so tropical. So if you’re counting at home, today makes 36 in a row. Considering we will not hit 40 anytime soon (*maybe* a chance on Monday…low chance for now)…that record is easily going down.

Then there’s the big picture – how about the month as a whole? As mentioned on the blog before – February of 1934 is the gold standard for cold. It was a miserable month, and the only one ever recorded in Boston since 1872 to have an average temp in the 10s. Well folks, we’ve got a shot. All four Southern New England climate sites are either in the lead or in range going into this home stretch. Our current forecast is for Tuesday through Saturday to all be 15-25º below average. So each one of these values should hold steady or tick down a bit more. Boston may not quite get there, but the other sites should become new champions and examples of how cold it can possibly get in this part of the world. And for Boston, it would at least be the coldest month since the observation site moved to Logan (a warmer spot) in 1936.

30-day avg low temp in Boston. Just 1.1F from the all-time record coldest. Likely to be broken this week! pic.twitter.com/gNsCjz028k

Impressive as that is, we’re not even the coldest versus average in New England! The stats in Bangor, ME are truly astounding. Not only are they going to record their coldest month ever noted in the books, but they’ll absolutely obliterate the previous record by 2º. That’s good for all-time cold, but for good measure it also puts a complete beat down on the previous coldest February ever recorded by 5º.

Statement via the National Weather Service in Caribou, ME

In Vermont, it’s the same story. Burlington is running more than -13º below average to date. It’s looking like the city should finish with its 3rd coldest month ever recorded, and Montpelier may be able to grab the top spot. Rivers are frozen solid, and you can bet that the ice jam season is going to be a mess for much of the region. And if you look at the overall picture for this part of the globe – it’s easy to spot that we have the un-enjoyable distinction of being the coldest area vs. average for all of the CONUS and Canada.

North American temperature anomalies for the month of February to date. Note that little blob of purple over us. We’re the coldest relative to average on the map, outside of Greenland! You want exceptional cold, this is the place to be. Source: Weatherbell

What does it mean for March? Well a combo of looking at past events and some longer range model projections suggest we’re staying in the freezer for at least a little while yet. In all of the Top 5 coldest February’s on record (and now the Top 6)…the following March was also below average. The latest models say we’re staying cold through at least the first half of the month, which looks highly probable considering there’s not much of a pattern shift being indicated and we still have several feet of snow outside. But there’s a silver lining here – at least the averages are moving up in March! Plus we’ll have a lot more daylight, and the sun starts to feel much stronger. I feel that once we turn the calendar over and get past this incredible February, spirits will lift regardless of our frigid prognostications.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/24/finishing-out-the-coldest-month-ever-recorded-in-new-england/feed/17Eye On Weather: When Will Spring Get Here?http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-when-will-spring-get-here/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-when-will-spring-get-here/#commentsSun, 22 Feb 2015 00:34:28 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=611919The potential exists for above average snowfall in March and near to above average precipitation in April into May.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150221211444843AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) – It seemed like we had the never-ending winter just last year as the cold strengthened in March but it wasn’t even close to being historical.

Well, times have changed and we are definitely living in historical times now.

The relentless snow and arctic chill of the past 30 days has been record-smashing and truly trying for everyone.

Were you earlier lulled into thinking that it was going to be a wide open winter? After all, the mean temperature for December was an impressive 3.8 degrees above average yielding much rain and only 0.3 of an inch of snow. The switch was flipped in January as the temperature tumbled and the snow finally kicked in closer to the last week of the month.

Since then, much of the region has been thumped and dumped with an astonishing 100 inches of the white stuff! There never has been so much snow in such a short period of time. This crippling, paralyzing weather is more than a once in a century phenomenon. Seriously!

Winter Forecast Review:

On our “Eye On Weather: Winter Outlook” special in late November, I showed what I thought would be the biggest player in a host of global factors in creating our winter weather. It was this map here depicting a pool of warm water migrating eastward in the northern Pacific Ocean.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

One year earlier, this pool was spread out across the Gulf of Alaska which resulted in atmospheric ridging over the eastern Pacific which produced a downstream axis of extreme cold and snow from Fargo to Minneapolis to Chicago to Detroit to Philadelphia.

As the pool shifted eastward, the expectation was that an axis of abominable weather would also be displaced farther east and north meaning New York and New England. Consequently, the WBZ-TV Accuweather Team delivered a prognosis for the winter calling for below to much below average temperatures and snowfall of 10-to-20 inches above average for the entire region which equates to 55-to-65 inches for the Boston area.

At that time, we felt that could very well be quite conservative, if not record-breaking. My neighbors were snickering at the giant snow sticks that I installed along my driveway and property bordering the street last November.

Although they looked silly into January, it was inevitable that the boom had to lower. And this massive snowfall has happened without North Atlantic Blocking which we expected to kick in during February.

Additionally, truthfully, our expected two-week break in December lasted closer to five weeks and the severe cold didn’t set in until late January following tardy stratospheric warming and a more favorable Arctic Oscillation.

“In conclusion, the signals are flashing a rather harsh winter. We are relatively confident of a cold and snowy winter overall… we are highly confident that it will not be easy.”

Spring 2015 Outlook:

How much more can we endure? Where will we put more snow? We have a problem!

Usually, these pools of warm ocean last about two years, meaning a cooling trend should commence soon but the ribbon of warm water in the eastern Pacific is presently modeled to persist through spring and that suggests masses of cold air will continue to charge out of Canada and plague us here in the Northeast.

On our winter special in November, we thought that this March would recover much more quickly than March 2014, suspecting that a more westerly flow of milder air would set in across the entire country.

That now looks to be delayed until April. That is when I believe that the odds increase for near to somewhat above average temperatures to return, as I think that western ridge should break down in a typical weak El Nino Modoki pattern.

With that said, we will still be vulnerable to bouts of cold air and chilly sea breezes as cold high pressure systems build across into the Canadian Maritimes.

Above Average Precipitation:

The deep snowpack feeds on itself and supports cold and snowy weather sometimes. Furthermore, with other global factors in play matched with analog years, the potential exists for above average snowfall in March and near to above average precipitation in April into May, not only here, but nationally.

More specifically, that could amount to around 20 or more inches for Boston which would smash the all-time record seasonal snowfall of 107.6 inches by at least 10 inches!

That is insane! This scenario could indeed be a problem for more ice dams and collapsing roofs in the weeks ahead.

So the prediction of cooler than average weather is a good thing, but with this outlook of above average precipitation in the next 1-to-2 months, wetter snows and rains along with the deep snowpack will raise the impact from potential for spring flooding.

Conclusion:

We have some tough weeks ahead, but as the sun gets higher and stronger, we can look forward to the eventual disappearance of snow followed by a greening landscape and the beautiful flowering shrubs and trees of late April and May.

We will soon spring forward one hour on March 8 as Daylight Saving Time Begins.

Sunset on that Sunday will occur at 6:42 p.m!

Spring officially begins at 6:45 p.m. on Friday, March 20 and the Red Sox home opener occurs at 3 p.m. on Monday, April 13.

One more thing – you can plan on this summer being hotter than last summer.

The Blizzard of 2015 was on and Boston was blasted by its sixth biggest snowstorm on record. Some towns were buried in three feet of fluff.

(Photo credit: Susan Flaherty)

“Alright, we’re good now!” was the common sentiment.

But it was not meant to be.

On February 2, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, proclaimed six more weeks of winter, and presumably went into witness protection as we stacked up a couple more feet.

Schools struggled with numerous snow days and the MBTA was on ice.

Workers tried to de-ice a stuck train in North Beverly, February 13, 2015. (Photo credit: cdelisi)

At this point roof rakes were as popular as Sam Adams, but we weren’t done with the Boston blitz of 2015.

February 7-9 brought another epic blast of snow, and produced yet another top 10 all-time snowstorm in the city.

Snow depth records started falling and icicles kept growing.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

And just last weekend, the third storm to bring more than a foot of snow to the area in two weeks.

Blizzard conditions raked the coastline, and the coldest temperatures in eleven years invaded as a final touch.

Workers clear snow from a roof (WBZ-TV)

Is this winter historic?

Hands down, this is an unprecedented streak.

A few of the records broken include snowiest 5, 7, 10, 20, 30, and 40-day stretches, the snowiest February, the snowiest month, and the soon-to-come snowiest winter season since weather record keeping began in 1891.

All the while, the bitter cold has not left, and so neither have the snow banks.

We went to Vermont and New Hampshire recently to see what’s new at the ski shop and on the trails.

“The latest in boot technology the last couple years, the hot boot has been Salomon, with their new custom shell,” John Maurice of Buchika’s Ski and Bike Shop in Salem, N.H. told WBZ-TV.

The moldable boots are heated in this oven for 12 minutes . (WBZ-TV)

It’s heated up in an oven for 12 minutes and then it conforms to the exact shape of the person’s foot.

“Afterwards, we wrap it with freezer packs. And the freezer packs will make that plastic stay in that exact shape. That combined with a heat moldable custom liner, the tongues are molded right up into the shape of the shin bone,” he said.

The Salomon boots. (WBZ-TV)

There are also state-of-the-art bindings.

“It’s a high performance binding – knee binding,” Maurice said. “They’re actually made up in Stow, Vermont. And its knee bindings are the only bindings proven to help reduce knee injuries.”

The new bindings to reduce knee injuries. (WBZ-TV)

Helmets have also come a long way and they’re much safer.

“There is a layer in this helmet that can spin independently from the rest of the helmet. So if you get into what they call an angled impact, this spins ever so slightly and it lessens to a large degree the shockwave that goes into your brain,” he said.

The inside of the new helmet. (WBZ-TV)

Outside, the chair lifts at Okemo Mountain Resort in Vermont are so new, they’re the only ones you’ll find in North America.

The Sunburst Six heated seat chairlift at Okemo. (WBZ-TV)

Each is equipped with heated seats for six skiers, foot rests and an orange dome to protect them from the harsh weather.

This unique lift can transport 3,000 people an hour!

The view from inside the Sunburst Six heated seat chairlift at Okemo. (WBZ-TV)

Of course, none of this matters if you don’t have quality snow.

The snowmaking technology has come a long way.

“The goal is to be able to achieve that high quality snow surface, Mark Horton of HKD Snowmakers told WBZ.

Snowmaking machine at Okemo. (WBZ-TV)

“And the balance is finding that point where you’re using as little air as possible but still achieving a very good snow quality. So that’s what we’re all here for is to ski this great snow.”

Horton said they’re always trying to strike a balance between energy efficiency and creating the lightest, fluffiest snow possible.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-new-ski-technology-brings-heated-chairlifts-moldable-boots/feed/2Eye On Weather: What Is Snowkiting?http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-what-is-snowkiting/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-what-is-snowkiting/#commentsSun, 22 Feb 2015 00:31:12 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=611186It’s like sailing, skiing and flying a kite at the same time.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150221210019280AA.mp4

LITTLETON, N.H. (CBS) – Remember that feeling of excitement you got flying a kite as a kid?

Now imagine the thrill of flying a kite about 15 times as big, in the middle of a frozen lake, and slap on some skis while you’re at it.

Danielle Niles tries snowkiting. (WBZ-TV)

It’s called snowkiting. It’s like sailing, skiing and flying a kite at the same time.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-what-is-snowkiting/feed/0Eye On Weather: Enjoy The Snow And Learn To Skihttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-enjoy-the-snow-and-learn-to-ski/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-enjoy-the-snow-and-learn-to-ski/#commentsSun, 22 Feb 2015 00:30:49 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=611155With the record-setting levels of snow across Massachusetts, this winter is a good time to learn how to ski.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_2102201519574900000AA.mp4

PRINCETON (CBS) – With the record-setting levels of snow across Massachusetts, this winter is a good time to learn how to ski.

WBZ-TV meteorologist Pamela Gardner is new to the Boston-area, so she took her first lesson at Wachusett Mountain.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/21/eye-on-weather-enjoy-the-snow-and-learn-to-ski/feed/2Weekend Storm May Be Spring-Like For Some With Snow, Rainhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/20/weekend-storm-may-be-spring-like-for-some-with-snow-rain/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/20/weekend-storm-may-be-spring-like-for-some-with-snow-rain/#commentsFri, 20 Feb 2015 12:00:35 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=612236We still have a storm coming Saturday night and Sunday, but this one is going to be very different, dare I say spring-like.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150222010130670AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) – There is a light at the end of the tunnel!

Granted it is way off in the distance and barely visible through the snow, but trust me, it is there.

This weekend may be the first sign of hope.

We certainly cannot declare winter over, not by a long shot. Nor can we say we have had our last big snowstorm, also somewhat doubtful. But, this weekend’s storm might just be the first sign of a change in this historic pattern. When was the last time we had a weekend without the mention of a foot or more of snow? Try mid-January.

Granted, we still have a storm coming Saturday night and Sunday, but this one is going to be very different, dare I say spring-like.

There will be some snow accumulation, but a surge of warmer air will introduce rain for a good portion of the area.

This isn’t necessarily all good news however. The rain will add some serious weight to our enormous snowpack. With about 1/2-to-1 inch of rain expected in southeastern Massachusetts, many roofs will be tested once again.

TIMELINE

Let’s break it down, flake by flake and drop by drop:

Saturday afternoon 1 p.m.- 7 p.m:

Snow begins between 4 and 7 p.m. from west to east, very light. Only expecting a coating to an inch (mainly north and west of Boston) by 7 p.m.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday night 7 p.m. – Midnight:

Steady light to moderate snow through midnight for most of southern New England. This is the time frame of greatest snow accumulation.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Areas north and west of Boston will receive about 2-to-4 inches of snow during this time. In Boston and areas south, a bit less due to milder temperatures, between a coating and 2 inches.

Sunday morning 12 a.m. – 7 a.m:

A significant push of mild air from south to north will change the snow to rain in some areas and an icy mix in others. The snow accumulation will largely be over with just a final inch or two in parts of central and western Massachusetts.

Snow will transition to plain rain in Boston and areas to the south. North and west of Boston, temperatures will rise above freezing a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere but right at ground level the sub-freezing cold will be tougher to dislodge.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Therefore, I expect pockets of freezing rain to develop in the early morning hours in parts of Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties as well as southern New Hampshire. Precipitation will be fairly light, so ice amounts should be near or below one-tenth of an inch, adding a crusty topping to the fresh snow.

Sunday 7 a.m. – Noon:

The mild surge continues and most of southern New England will climb to near or slighty above 32 degrees in this time frame. Parts of southeastern Massachusetts could climb to near 40 degrees!

Most of the freezing rain will change to plain rain, although some of the colder valley locations may remain just below 32 degrees well into the morning. In addition, the precipitation rate will slow down significantly during Sunday morning. The rain will become very light, turning to a drizzle north of Boston. The last of the steady rain will exit southern areas by midday.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Sunday midday/afternoon:

Precipitation tapers off and it’s time to clean up again.

TOTAL ACCUMULATION

Three-to-6 inches:

North and west of Route 128, including Worcester, Fitchburg, Lowell, Lawrence and southern New Hampshire and Vermont.

One-to-3 inches:

Immediate coastline including Boston, South Shore, Cape and islands and all of southeastern Massachusetts.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

WHAT’S NEXT?

Another shot of very cold, Arctic air for early next week. What else is new? The next storm potential looks to be around Wednesday. Still a ways to go with this one, could certainly be a miss, but it’s something to watch.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/20/weekend-storm-may-be-spring-like-for-some-with-snow-rain/feed/1Snow, Rain Likely During Fifth Straight Weekend Stormhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/19/snow-rain-likely-during-fifth-straight-weekend-storm/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/19/snow-rain-likely-during-fifth-straight-weekend-storm/#commentsThu, 19 Feb 2015 21:08:07 +0000mwschooleyhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=612072Snow will likely begin on Saturday night, but could turn to rain for a change on Sunday.]]>BOSTON (CBS) – It has become a weekend tradition. Either preparing for or dealing with a significant snow storm.

Starting with the January blizzard, for the last four weekends we have been forced to shovel, plow, roof rake, ice chisel and battle ridiculous lines at the grocery store. We need a break.

I wish I had better news, but it appears we will make it five weekends in a row.

Yes, more snow is coming, but this one will be different. Most importantly, this is not going to be a major storm. No talk of Nor’easter or blizzard this go around. No strong winds, no blowing and drifting, no coastal concerns.

More good news. Snow amounts will likely be light, relatively speaking. Sadly, at this point, I think anything under a foot is hardly even considered a storm. We should stay well under a foot of snow in all of southern New England. In fact, there may even be a little mixing with rain for the first time in a long time.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

TIMELINE

Saturday Afternoon: Snow begins after 2 p.m. from west to east and is very light. We are only expecting a coating to an inch or two by 7 p.m.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

Saturday Night: Steady snow falling light to moderate. Temperatures will actually rise overnight and by Sunday morning, most of southern New England will be near or slightly above 32 degrees. Just about all of our snow storms in the last month have been pure light and fluffy powder.

The cold and powdery snow storms can accumulate 2 or 3 times as quickly as a storm near the freezing mark. Given that temperatures Saturday night and Sunday will be rising through the 20s and low 30s, the snow will be slower to accumulate. By Sunday morning, total snow accumulation will average about 3-to-6 inches across the region.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

Sunday Morning: The snow will begin to mix with freezing rain in colder pockets north and west of Boston and plain rain in Boston and points south. Good news here is that precipitation amounts will remain light. An additional 1/4-inch or so of liquid is expected Sunday morning and midday. This will make a sloppy mess of the snow to the south and add a crusty, icy layer on top to the north.

Widespread 3-to-6 inches accumulations are expected from Boston to Worcester and points north, with potential for slightly higher amounts in spots. We are not expecting anyone to reach a foot this time.

Totals around 1-to-3 inches will be seen along the south coast, Cape Cod and islands with mixing likely.

While this storm does not appear to be major, at this point any precipitation (snow or rain) will add stress and weight to roofs. While most roofs are not at risk for snow induced collapse or failure, it is always a good idea to remove as much snow and ice as you can, and do so safely.

If you have just a minor accumulation of snow on your roof, the likelihood of actually damaging the roofing material can outweigh the benefits of removal, this according to FEMA.

There are many personal hazards associated with roof snow removal. No amount of snow and ice is worth risking your life to clear it.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/19/snow-rain-likely-during-fifth-straight-weekend-storm/feed/3The Ice Box Of America – New Englandhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/18/the-ice-box-of-america-new-england/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/18/the-ice-box-of-america-new-england/#commentsWed, 18 Feb 2015 10:15:29 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=611326Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook Maybe it’s just me, but have you stopped feeling cold? I found myself staring up at the sun the other day thinking ‘hey it’s pretty nice out.’ Then […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

Maybe it’s just me, but have you stopped feeling cold? I found myself staring up at the sun the other day thinking ‘hey it’s pretty nice out.’ Then checked the temp and it was 19F. This must be what people in Minnesota feel like (note to self, never move to Minnesota). It’s been so steadily cold for weeks now that there’s a chance some of us are getting used to it. A few years ago I’d never go out for a run when it was in the 10s. Way too cold. Now 14F feels fine. Wild times we have been living in this winter.

So is it just plain ‘February cold’ or is this something more impressive? Well we could start by looking at the ‘gold standard’ for cold in New England, which is February of 1934. It’s the coldest month ever recorded in Boston, with an average temp of only 17.5F. That my friends is brutal cold. It’s the only month here that’s had an average monthly temp in the teens, with records going back to the 1870s. In more recent history, the last time we had an arctic stretch like this was in 2004, which came close to having an average in the 10s. Many remember an iconic moment of that January/February stretch as the insanely cold Patriots playoff game vs the Titans. The halftime temp was 3F…ugh! We won that game, by the way.

Now we’re seeing high concentrations of harbor ice that haven’t been matched since that winter. I was able to speak with a spokesperson for Boston Harbor Cruises on Tuesday, who said the ice breakers can’t even get through the ice in Hingham. The MBTA hasn’t been able to run consistently because a channel can’t be kept open – a situation they haven’t had since 2004. Mass Bay ice is increasing and there are also some good sized hunks in the Long Island Sound. And of course there’s our snow, which generally has been just staring us in the face after falling instead of melting away over time.

Through the first 17 days of this month, the average temp in Boston is on pace for the 2nd coldest February ever recorded, and possibly the 2nd coldest month of any. We’re right around 18F – threatening to become only the 2nd month with an average temp in the 10s. That’s a departure of nearly -13F! Such an anomaly vs average blows away last winter’s cold, which was regarded by many as pretty miserable. It’s also helped to give us these huge snow totals because the ratios have been exceptionally high (powdery snow, less liquid needed to produce lots of snow).

On tap there’s plenty more where this came from. The pattern remains fairly locked in, although it doesn’t look *quite* as intense as it has been. Believe it or not the average high this time of year is 40! I can’t even imagine how great 40 degrees is going to feel when we hit it and have some sunshine to get us there (hasn’t been done since January 19th). That’s the beauty I suppose of a very cold stretch – the standard is set so low that it’s not going to take much to feel comfortable outside. Looking forward, the jet stream may end up delivering the core of the coldest air just off to our west – an area that’s been largely spared up to this point. I’d expect us to stay below average, but after this Friday the departures won’t be as large.

We may be able to pull off a neat trick before February comes to a close. To this point, every single day has seen below average temps this month. That trend will easily continue through Saturday. The only real potential question mark for this streak is Sunday. An incoming storm (that’s a whole other blog) will need to be watched, as it’s still unclear who will end up on the warmer side and who will end up on the colder side of a boundary. *IF* we can somehow manage something near 40 for a high in Boston and 30 for a low, the streak could end. But if we get past it, I’d say there’s a very high likelihood that the entire month will feature all below average days. That streak actually goes back to January 25th.

There’s yet another record that’s about to get obliterated, and it’s for the most days stuck below freezing in any calendar month for recorded Boston history (goes back to 1872). The record for such futility is 18 days set in 1885, with that epic 1934 February coming in second place. That record will bet set by Saturday, in only 21 days. Extremely remarkable territory. Sunday is our only shot at topping the freezing mark for the rest of the month it seems, so we should be able to tack on another 5 or 6 days. So all told, in the shortest month of the year, we should be able to set the mark for subfreezing air with either 24 or 25 days!! Living history, people.

But since everyone likes to pull the whole ‘Where’s global warming’ card when we have a cold stretch or it snows a lot (a real tired act)…here’s a glimpse at the larger picture. The first step is to realize that we’re a gnat on the map compared to the entire Earth climate system. What happens here doesn’t factor in much to the overall picture. To look just at the U.S. (another small piece) – the past 60 days have seen a magnitude of warmth that has been much greater in the west than our cold has been in the Northeast. In fact, their streaks are more impressive than ours, too. San Francisco has seen 44 straight days above average and counting. Many areas are on pace for their warmest winter ever recorded. Skiing competitions and events are being canceled left and right because some mountains have seen less snow than we have here on Cape Cod! New England has literally been the coldest and snowiest spot in the country. Hooray for us.

Looking even a little farther out, you can see that the whole globe is running well above average so far in 2015. The really interesting part is that our little corner is approximately the coldest spot on planet Earth relative to average so far. You know what’s out your window, but remember that weather is a balancing act and there’s always someone on the opposite end of the spectrum taking the heat for your chilly pain!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/18/the-ice-box-of-america-new-england/feed/3Quick Moving Storm To Deliver Shot of Snow Tuesdayhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/16/quick-moving-storm-to-deliver-shot-of-snow-tuesday/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/16/quick-moving-storm-to-deliver-shot-of-snow-tuesday/#commentsMon, 16 Feb 2015 16:30:48 +0000daniellenileshttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=610922This winter is unrelenting. If it’s not the snow, it’s the cold –and this morning, we hit our coldest temperature (-3 degrees) in Boston in 11 years. On top of that, the wind behind our […]]]>This winter is unrelenting. If it’s not the snow, it’s the cold –and this morning, we hit our coldest temperature (-3 degrees) in Boston in 11 years. On top of that, the wind behind our weekend blizzard is still strong, creating dangerously cold feels like temperatures out there. Despite the sunshine, we’ll only come into the teens this afternoon, challenging record cold high temperatures for the date.

Tonight, the wind will subside and the clouds will move back in – so it won’t be AS cold as this morning. I mean we’ll still be in the single digits, but that’s a little bit better, right??

And just as we finish the cleanup from the last storm (or should I say continue the cleanup!) – our next shot of accumulating snow is right around the corner. An area of low pressure down near the Gulf Coast states will slide through the Mid-Atlantic tonight and pass south of us tomorrow. This storm has it all – snow on the northern side, rain on the south side and freezing rain in between. Of course, we’re on the colder side, so precipitation will be in the form of snow. I know many of us are pretty much done with the snow…but honestly at this point, a few inches of the white stuff is better than rain which would exacerbate the roof collapse situation significantly.

So here are the details:

Snow arrives tomorrow morning between 5-7 AM, continuing through the afternoon at a light to moderate clip before tapering off between 4-6 PM. Snowfall rates won’t be nearly as intense as they’ve been in previous storms this winter.

Accumulations will generally range from 1-3 in and around the city to 3-6″ in southeast MA. If anything, the trend may be to lower these expected accumulations later today – so stay tuned to WBZ.

The wind won’t be a concern with this event, nor will the threat for coastal flooding. It’s a quick shot of snow , gone by Tuesday evening….or is it?

There are signals that a lingering trough over eastern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday could yield additional snow showers, mainly at the coast. A very localized band of steadier snow may try to organize, but historically, that band would be focused to our north (somewhere along the Maine coast). Nonetheless, something to watch.

Behind the storm? You guessed it…more cold.

At this point – I feel like it’s all or nothing. We’re on track for the 2nd coldest February on record…and we’re 11.9″ away from the snowiest winter ever. Go big or go home!

Stay warm :)

-Danielle

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/16/quick-moving-storm-to-deliver-shot-of-snow-tuesday/feed/4Blizzard Conditions Expected During Valentine’s Day Weekend Stormhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/14/blizzard-conditions-expected-during-valentines-day-weekend-storm/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/14/blizzard-conditions-expected-during-valentines-day-weekend-storm/#commentsSat, 14 Feb 2015 22:15:27 +0000mwschooleyhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=610643Much of the region will be hit with blizzard-like conditions as at least a foot of snow could fall by Sunday evening.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_1402201518204700000AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) – We are off and running…Our Valentine’s weekend storm has arrived on schedule and will essentially come in two distinct phases.

Part 1 happened Saturday night. Light to moderate snowfall over all of Southern New England lasted until about 10 p.m. Then, the storm gathered itself just to our south and became a powerful blizzard by Sunday morning. Sunday will be a good day to hunker down, stay inside and stay off the roads.

While most of the snowfall will taper off by afternoon, the winds will continue to howl, blowing the snow around in such a frenzy you may not even realize the snow has stopped.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

Blizzard warnings are actually up through 7AM Monday. This is a rare case where we may continue to experience very low visibilities and white out conditions for many hours after the snow has stopped.

TIMELINE

Let’s break this entire storm down piece by piece, hour by hour, flake by flake.

Saturday Night Through 9PM:

Phase one. Light to moderate snow, widespread 2-5”.

Saturday Night 9PM-2AM:

Phase 1 over and we are in a lull while the storm gets organized. Scattered snow flurries/snow showers but no real significant additional accumulation or winds just yet…

Sunday Early Morning 2AM-7AM:

The storm now has a clear center and begins to rapidly deepen and strengthen just to the east of Cape Cod. A steady shield of snow overspreads the entire region with some pockets of fairly heavy snow, up to an inch per hour. The winds start to crank up out of the north-northeast gusting 20-40mph. We may be near blizzard conditions in spots. Another 2-4″ falls in this time period, bringing total snow accumulation up to 4-8″ by 7AM.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Sunday Mid to Late Morning 7AM-1PM:

The peak of the storm. The most likely timeframe for blizzard conditions in all of Eastern Massachusetts. A powerful band of intense snow will rotate southward from the North to South Shore and Cape Cod. Snow rates could peak at 2-3″ per hour. Northerly wind gusts will top out between 30-50mph inland, 50-60mph along the Coast and 60-75mph over Cape Cod. The powdery snow will be whipped into a frenzy, visibility will be near zero, many roads will become impassible. An additional 6-12″ could fall in parts of Eastern MA in these 6 hours alone with 3-6″ likely in areas well inland. Snow will be impossible to measure due to the winds which will create massive snow drifts.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Sunday Afternoon and Evening 1PM-7PM:

The heavy snow band will have passed. The snow falling from the clouds will lessen significantly. However, the snow will continue to be whipped and blown around horizontally. Blizzard conditions will likely continue in the afternoon even though the snowfall will be light and tapering. (A blizzard can be caused by falling and/or blowing snow). North-northwesterly winds will relentlessly lash all of New England Sunday Afternoon. Frequent gusts will remain between 25-45mph inland and still up to 60mph along the Coast.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

After 7PM Sunday:

The falling snow is long gone, the winds decrease somewhat but stay gusty all night. Widespread gusts between 20-40mph will continue for several more hours. Cleaning driveways and roads will be awfully frustrating as the winds continue to blow the snow back onto previously cleaned surfaces.

ACCUMULATION

4-8″ in Western MA including Vermont and the Berkshires

8-12” in Central MA, including Worcester County and most of Middlesex County. Also including west and southwestern New Hampshire.

12-18” in Eastern MA including all towns near and inside 128. This would also encompass all of Essex County in NE Massachusetts and Rockingham County in Southern New Hampshire. Highest amounts (near 18″ or perhaps a tick more) will likely be found in Southeastern Massachusetts including the South Shore and most of Cape Cod.

The snow will once again be light and fluffy (powdery). This means it will pile up quickly but thankfully be relatively easy to push and snowblow around. Some power outages are likely due to the strong winds, but the light nature of the snow should prevent widespread outages.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

COASTAL FLOODING

High tide of greatest concern is Sunday morning around 730AM…Areas of greatest concern would be the North Shore from Salisbury to Cape Ann and the Cape Cod Bay from Sandwich to Dennis. Minor to moderate flooding is anticipated…few things working in our favor: tides are not that high astronomically and this is not a long duration event (just one tide cycle affected) so seas will not have a chance to build.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The winter of 2014-2015 continues to be historical, records fall with each and every storm. This event will undoubtedly take us to more places never before seen in more than 120 years of record keeping. It is mind boggling just how much snow has fallen in such a short period of time, which bears the question, how much more can we possibly take? How much more could our atmosphere possibly have left? And unfortunately there are no answers to those questions just yet. One thing is certain beyond this storm, the cold is going nowhere. The next 1-2 weeks are going to remain frigid. This will likely be one of, if not the coldest February ever recorded. It is very possible that we could make it the entire month without one day above average. There is no significant snowmelt coming anytime soon.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

RECORDS CONTINUE FALLING

The winter of 2014-2015 continues to be historical, records falling with each and every storm. This event will undoubtedly take us to more places never before seen in more than 120 years of record keeping.

It is mind boggling just how much snow has fallen in such a short period of time, which bears the question, how much more can we possibly take? How much more could our atmosphere possibly have left?

And unfortunately there are no answers to those questions just yet. One thing is certain beyond this storm – the cold is going nowhere.

The next 1-2 weeks are going to remain frigid. This will likely be one of, if not the coldest February ever recorded. It is very possible that we could make it the entire month without one day above average.

Update 2:00p.m.: The latest model data suggests a very slight but important shift to the east with the storm on Sunday morning. This would not likely prevent us from reaching blizzard criteria but it could lessen the snow totals a bit. If this shift east does occur, the heaviest snow bands may be just offshore or scrape along the coastline. Essentially, the majority of the snow accumulation will occur with a southward moving band during Sunday morning. The location of this band is key. Eastern Massachusetts would still be most susceptible to the heavy snow and blizzard conditions, specifically Essex County and the immediate coastline. We’re still sticking with the snow totals below, but some shifting to the east of the heaviest bands and snow accumulations may be needed.

———–

BOSTON (CBS) – Just once this winter I wish I could write a blog saying “BIG CHANGES, storm headed out to sea!!”

That hasn’t happened yet and sadly this weekend’s storm is no exception. It’s still coming and there have been no significant changes in the forecast.

Blizzard conditions? Check
Foot or more of snow in Boston? Check
Powerful, damaging winds? Check
More pain and misery in New England? Check

Let’s get right to what we can expect.

TIMELINE

Saturday Afternoon:

Snow begins, innocently enough at first. Just some light to moderate snow as the storm approaches from the west and begins to transfer its energy offshore. A coating to an inch or two by 7 p.m. Saturday. Any early evening Valentine’s Day plans should be OK!

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday Night:

Another inch or two before 9 p.m. and then there may be a bit of a lull in the action. A dry slot of sorts forms over parts of southern New England as the storm begins to deepen and develop just offshore. Between 9 p.m. and 4 a.m. there may just be a light additional accumulation 1-to-3 inches or so.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Sunday Morning:

Our blizzard begins. It appears as though the storm will undergo bombogenesis (a rapid deepening and intensification) just to our east and in the Gulf of Maine. The winds will really start to crank out of the north. Wind gusts along the coastline could easily top 50 miles per hour and be near hurricane force over Cape Cod.

Intense bands of snow will set up along the Maine Coast. Most models project at least one very heavy band to rotate southward from Maine, through eastern Massachusetts during Sunday morning.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Within this band, powerful winds and steady, heavy snow will create near zero visibility at times (blizzard conditions).

Snow will be nearly impossible to measure. Expect an additional 5-to-10 inches during Sunday morning alone. The highest amounts will be right along the coast including the North Shore, Boston, and certainly up into Maine.

Sunday Afternoon:

The snow intensity lets up a bit, but the winds continue to be a concern. They may be slightly lower than their peak in the morning, but still strong enough to whip the snow around and create scattered whiteout conditions.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Additional snow accumulation should only be a few inches, but the winds will make it seem like the storm is still raging.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Sunday Evening:

The snow is over. The winds will gradually slacken but remain gusty (20-to-40 mph perhaps) all night long.

(WBZ-TV Graphic)

ACCUMULATION

Preliminary estimates:

Eight-to-12 inches:

Most of western and central Massachusetts, from Hartford, to Springfield, to Worcester and Fitchburg.

Twelve-to-16 inches:

Eastern Mass., including most of Essex County, Suffolk County and the immediate South Shore. This would also include Rockingham County in southeastern New Hampshire.

Sixteen inches +:

The state of Maine, which appears to be the jackpot zone for snow accumulation with this event. Parts of the coastline north of Portland will receive well over 2 feet of snow.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The snow will once again be light and fluffy (powdery). This means it will pile up quickly but once again be relatively easy to push around. Some power outages are likely due to the strong winds, but the light nature of the snow should prevent widespread outages.

WINDS

This is perhaps the biggest concern with this storm. Wind gusts on Sunday will top out 60-to-70 mph over the Outer Cape, Cape Ann and Nantucket. For the rest of eastern Massachusetts, gusts will peak between 50 and 60 mph. West of Interstate 495, expect gusts between 35-to-50 mph.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

COASTAL FLOODING

The high tide of greatest concern is Sunday around 7:30 a.m. The areas of greatest concern would be the North Shore from Salisbury to Cape Ann and the Cape Cod Bay from Sandwich to Dennis.

Minor to moderate flooding is anticipated. A few things working in our favor: tides are not that high astronomically and this is not a long duration event (just one tide cycle affected) so seas will not have a chance to build.

WHAT COULD CHANGE?

Sadly not much.

We are now within 24-to-48 hours of the main event and there isn’t much wiggle room within the model data. Other than a tweak to the snow totals map here and there, I do not anticipate any major shift in forecast.

Use the next 24 hours to prepare your homes as much as possible. Remove as much snow from the roof as you can (safely). If you have plans to be on the roads Sunday, it would be best to reconsider or attempt to change them, particularly on Sunday morning.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/13/expect-blizzard-conditions-for-weekend-snow-storm/feed/6Significant Weekend Snow Storm Could Be A Blizzardhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/12/significant-weekend-snow-storm-could-be-a-blizzard/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/12/significant-weekend-snow-storm-could-be-a-blizzard/#commentsThu, 12 Feb 2015 20:50:49 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=610156We are now tracking what looks to be another significant blow this weekend. Another nor’easter. Another potential blizzard.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_1202201523224500000AA.mp4

2/12/15 BOSTON (CBS) – Where is your breaking point? Are you already there? Do you know?

This winter is putting us all to the test like never before. The last three weeks have been just about as mentally and physically challenging as the weather can get here in the winter. Our patience and resolve our being pushed to the max. There is a breaking point, there has to be. Just look at our crowded streets, the failing commuter rail, heck the snow piles in your own driveway.

(Photo by Kayana Szymczak/Getty Images)

We are getting dangerously close. Several roofs have already collapsed. Snow blower repair shops are overflowing. Schools will be lucky to get out before July. How much more can our region take? Will one more big storm push us over the edge? Two?

I gotta say, up until this point, I have been extremely impressed.

Consider that we have received more snow in the last 3 weeks than in any stretch ever before in more than 120 years of record keeping.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

We literally have NEVER experienced anything remotely like this in our lifetimes or in our parents’ lifetimes, or their parents. And yet, for the most part, our roads remain passable. Our driveways are shoveled and our resolve is strong.

I wish I could say that we made it. That the pattern is changing and the worst is over. Sadly it is not.

We are now tracking what looks to be another significant blow this weekend. Another nor’easter. Another potential blizzard.

Right now there is a piece of atmospheric energy in the far Northwest Territories of Northern Canada. Even though it is nearly 2,000 miles from Boston, just about every piece of computer model guidance is taking this “storm” from the Arctic Ocean to just off our shore in the next 72 hours.

There is some disagreement as to the exact track and where the most dramatic impacts will be, but it appears that avoiding a sizeable storm here is no longer on the table.

The “ceiling” for this storm is extremely high. This is not just a snow event like our storm from earlier this week. This storm will likely have significant winds associated with it, creating several additional concerns from blizzard conditions to power outages to property damage.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

TIMELINE:

Saturday Afternoon:

Snow begins. Innocently enough at first. Just some light snow as the storm approaches from the west and begins to transfer its energy offshore. A coating to an inch or two by 7 p.m. Saturday.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Saturday Night:

The storm rapidly deepens just off our South Coast. Several inches of snow are likely overnight. The winds do not ramp up just yet. Total snow by 7 a.m. Sunday something like 3-6 inches.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Sunday Morning:

This is where things get serious.

It appears as though the storm will undergo bombogenesis (a rapid deepening and intensification) just to our east and in the Gulf of Maine. The winds will really start to crank out of the north. Wind gusts along the coastline could easily top 50 mph and be near hurricane force over Cape Cod (70 mph+).

(WBZ-TV graphic)

An intense band of snow will likely setup along the Maine coast. This is where the worst of the storm will be felt. They will almost certainly be measuring the snow in feet up in Maine. Some heavy snow bands will likely rotate from north to south down the coast and into southern New England at this time.

Blizzard conditions are highly likely in spots on Sunday morning.

The whipping wind and steady snow will create near zero visibility at times. Snow will be nearly impossible to measure. Expect an additional 3-to-6 inches Sunday morning. The highest amounts right along the coast include the Cape, Boston, and certainly up into Maine.

Sunday Afternoon:

The snow intensity lets up a bit but the winds continue to be a concern. They may be slightly lower than their peak in the morning, but still strong enough to whip the snow around and create scattered whiteout conditions.

Additional snow accumulation should only be a few inches, but the winds will make it seem like the storm is still raging.

Sunday Evening:

The snow is over. The winds will gradually slacken but remain gusty (20-to-40 mph perhaps) all night long.

ACCUMULATION:

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Preliminary estimates:

12”+ all of Eastern MA (Worcester to Boston)…could easily close in on 18” in spots

6-12” Western MA due to the distance away from the storm

24”+ in the state of Maine, which appears to be the jackpot zone for snow accumulation with this event. There may be 3 feet of snow in spots!

COASTAL FLOODING:

The high tide of greatest concern is Sunday around 7:30 a.m. Winds will be mainly northerly but very strong. Significant beach erosion is likely along with pockets of minor-moderate coastal flooding, especially in northerly facing beaches (Cape Cod Bay).

(WBZ-TV graphic)

We are still nearly 3 days away from the peak of this storm arriving here in southern New England. And again, it is currently 2,000 miles away.

Things can, and likely, will change.

However, a miss or low impact storm does not appear to be in the cards.

Use the next few days to prepare as best you can. Get as much snow off the roof as possible. Shave down those giant piles at the end of your driveways. And think about making alternate travel plans late Saturday night and Sunday if you are heading out. Of course, stay tuned for updates. And stay safe.

It’s getting old — fast. “Snow” has become the dirtiest of four-letter words as of late, conjuring up feelings of anxiety, anger and pain. Unfortunately, it is my duty to inform you that there is more coming. More long commutes, more overgrown gigantic piles of snow, more back pain from shoveling.

Mother Nature is seriously pissed off. . . is it something we said? What did we do to deserve this, why us? While the rest of the country has enjoyed early tastes of spring, we have had NO breaks. Temperatures have been below average for a stunning 17 straight days. Snow has fallen on 14 of those 17 days, totaling 77.4” in the city of Boston.

By the end of this weekend we will have more snow in just three weeks than we normally get in two full years. We will also likely be in the top five snowiest winters ever recorded in Boston’s 120-plus years of record-keeping. We’re literally one big storm away from being the snowiest winter ever recorded, and it is only mid-February.

Still searching for a sign, any sort of atmospheric signal that this historical pattern will come settle down, there are none. The beat goes on. . . and on. . .

Today:
Nuisance snow. Ocean-effect snow will stream in from the Atlantic off and on through the day today, mainly inside of Interstate 495 and close to the coast. Scattered coatings to as much as an inch or two in spots, mainly just frosting on the enormous cake of snow.

Thursday:
I guess you could look at this one as perhaps our first “break” in quite some time. Another “clipper” zipping out of Canada and through the upper Midwest will redevelop to our south and quickly deepen into a powerful ocean storm. This is a story we have read over and over again the past few weeks.

However, this time we get spared the brunt of the storm. We will catch the very beginning of its development as it passes by Thursday afternoon and evening. On the far northwestern fringe of this storm, we will only see some light to moderate snow for about a 3-6 hour period between 4-10 p.m.

The “jackpot” zone from this storm will be out over the open waters, one for the fishes. In eastern Massachusetts, a general 1-3” is expected, hardly even a storm by the lofty standards we have set this winter. The best chance of 4 or 5” would be over Cape Cod and Nantucket, the areas closest to the developing storm.

Friday:
A snow-free day? Could it be? We just might get through Friday without any additional snow accumulation. That’s the good news, the bad news is that it will be absolutely frigid. Daytime highs only in the teens with wind chill values well below zero. Friday night will likely be our coldest night of the season (and that is saying something). Nearly all of southern New England will dip below zero, even Boston could see a rare subzero night.

Weekend:
Break over. Another storm, the latest in a series of “Canadian Clippers”, dives southward toward New England. Some light snow and flurries could break out as early as Saturday afternoon but the timeframe to watch is Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Once again, this storm will develop and strengthen rapidly as it “bombs out” to our east over the Atlantic. This one is certainly one to watch. There is a fairly high ceiling with this storm, lots of potential with regards to snow and wind. Too early to get specific but a nor’easter-type event is certainly a possibility as is another foot of snow.

I would stress that there is still a ways to go with this forecast. The piece of energy chiefly responsible for the formation of this storm is currently up in the Arctic Ocean, more than 2,000 miles away. Therefore, there is very limited data and atmospheric sampling at this time. We should know a lot more in another 24-36 hours. As always, stay tuned…

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/11/watching-a-weekend-storm-with-big-potential/feed/7The Great Boston Blitz of 2015http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/10/the-great-boston-blitz-of-2015/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/10/the-great-boston-blitz-of-2015/#commentsWed, 11 Feb 2015 01:04:19 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=609710Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook “Winter is begun here, now, I suppose. It blew part of the hair off the dog yesterday & got the rest this morning.” – Mark Twain – letter […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

“Winter is begun here, now, I suppose. It blew part of the hair off the dog yesterday & got the rest this morning.” – Mark Twain – letter to Chatto and Windus, October 21, 1892

That escalated quickly. Winters in New England are filled with intermittent bouts of joy, stress, and exhaustion for about 4 months, give or take a month. But none of them that anyone currently reading this (or their parents, or their parents parents!) have featured a blitz of snow like we have endured over the past two and a half weeks. In that time fences disappeared, two lane roads became one lane paths, and a lot of kids forgot that school is a part of daily life. What follows is the tale of what we’ve all seen unfold in rapid-fire fashion.

The first real flakes of the season started to float down in pleasant fashion on Saturday, the 24th of January. I remember it well, because it was that type of snow that doesn’t force you to pull a 180 on all your plans but is enough to sufficiently transform the landscape. Most of us saw about a half a foot, and rejoiced in the fact that we could now break out our L.L. Bean arsenal and go snowshoeing, snowmobiling, or however else you try to enjoy the winter months. “Finally!” many exclaimed. And we were off to the races.

Then came the night of the 26th, and the state went quiet. We were asked to keep to ourselves at home as a blizzard moved in. The travel ban went up, the flakes came down, and at the end we had our 6th largest snowstorm in the recorded history of Boston weather (which goes back to the 1880s). Some towns were buried in three feet of snow, and coastal towns were inundated with the frigid waters of the Atlantic. “Alright, we’re good now!” seemed to be the common sentiment. After all, we suddenly had already just about reached our average snowfall for the season. But still there were a few winter diehards who roared for more.

Wish granted! Phil poked his head out of the ground in Punxsutawney, saw his shadow even though it was raining, and proclaimed ‘6 more weeks it will be!’ He may just be a quadruped, but the guy knows what he’s talking about. Groundhog’s Day brought another major storm in and along with it a couple feet more. Now that the drifts were starting to cover up the windows and cabin fever was taking control, even the snow hounds started to announce “Okay winter, we’re cool. Thanks for the laughs but we’re all set now.” Not quite.

Then, another two feet blanketed the area during a longer duration storm February 7th-9th, and roof rakes became as popular as Sam Adams.The roof collapse reports started to escalate, especially for commercial property. Icicles more than 12 feet long started dangling off homes and buildings everywhere.

And then an unfathomable follow-up blizzard, the third storm in just a touch over two weeks to produce over a foot of snow! That’s another feat that has never been accomplished so far as records go in the area. This must be unequivocal proof that Mother Nature is a Seahawks fan, because this is some serious wrath of weather territory. This storm was more dynamic, bringing an ‘appetizer’ round Saturday night of Valentine’s Day before a ripping band of thundersnow and 4″/hour snow rates rocked eastern Massachusetts on Sunday morning of the 15th. A couple towns neared the two-foot mark AGAIN before the snow wound down. To add insult to injury, winds gusted 40-65mph and produced wind chill values of -25 to -35F. Ground blizzard conditions kept on going through the evening. The following morning saw the coldest temperature readings in 11 years, with Logan Airport coming in at -3F.

Individual storms claim their own glory and stand alone. The blizzards of 1888, 1969, 1978, 1997, 2003, and 2013 were all extremely impressive events. Many of them featured more wind, more flooding, lower central pressure, or an overall higher impact. But many of them stand alone. Even in 1978, when the infamous blizzard on Feb 6-7 was preceded by another huge snowstorm on Jan 20, there was at least a stretch to take a break. Highs topped 50 between the two, allowing for a little more space. But the cold we’ve been seeing is as much a story as the snow. We haven’t touched 40 degrees since January 19th.

There’s no doubt that this is a stretch that we’ll all remember for many years to come. Chances are that it’ll be talked about in the same type of vein as the ’78 blizzard, even though the impacts of these events changes with technology and advance warning of incoming storms. Snow depth records are falling, seasonal records are in jeopardy, and there’s still a lot of time left on the clock. Driving around to our live locations on Monday, I felt the fascination that makes most of us turn to Meteorology in the first place. It was like a movie set…mounds of snow bigger than anything I’ve ever seen in my life in this part of the country. Homes encased in drifts and icicles. Canyons that people had dug out to fit their cars, and street signs that had come within a few inches of completely disappearing. It almost didn’t feel real, and I’m sure at least a few of you have had the same thoughts these past few days.

This remarkable pattern is being driven by strong Pacific ridging of the jet stream – which was the expectation heading into the winter. A warm pool of water off the coast of Alaska helps to build this ridge (and western warmth) and maintain it. The reaction to this is a deep trough over the east, which brings the cold and stormy weather. The warm pool migrated east from last winter, so the thought was that the ridge/trough axis would head a bit east as well. That has certainly been the case of late!

Can we take down the all-time seasonal record of 107.9″ (Boston) set in 1995-96? I’d say the odds are looking good. This setup is generally locked in into March, and we’re a mere <1 foot shy.

We’re at the breaking point, so the hope is that these trends to the east stick. That’s not to be dramatic, but to state a fact. The roof collapses are increasing, Boston’s last day of school is already set for June 30th, and snowblowers can’t shoot the snow high enough over the snowbanks that line our driveways. If we were talking about another foot in the short term (or even worse, significant rain), it could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Hopefully that’s a territory we won’t need to wander into.

And of course down the road there’s always the question of ‘how will all this melt?’ There’s good and bad news there. The good news is that there’s no rapid melt on the horizon. In fact, there’s barely any melting at all. The majority of the next 10 days should feature below average temps (nearly all of them staying below freezing) and I really can’t look into the long-range trends and find you a day that will reach 40 degrees region-wide. If there’s no more snow, sublimation (ice undergoing a phase change via the sun and evaporating), compaction, and some minor melting….we can slowly start to bring down the snow pack. The absolute worst case scenario is more snow, then a wild pattern shift with big warmth and a rainstorm. There are no signs of that anytime soon, so we’ll just have to hope that after this incredible stretch, Mother Nature will give us a break here in eastern New England.

BOSTON (CBS) — I have officially run out of ways to discuss and describe this winter. By now you have likely been hit with a thousand different numbers and graphs.

Top 10 snowiest winter. Two top 10 storms in the last three weeks. Snowiest February on record. . . yadda yadda yadda. . . the beat goes on and on.

The history books are literally being rewritten over the last 3 weeks. I find it incredible to think that just 20 days ago we had just 5” of snow for the season and now we are completely and utterly buried. We are dumping snow in “snow farms” and in the Atlantic Ocean. Day and night dump trucks are hauling snow out of the city and yet we just cannot keep up.

More than once I have woken up and wondered if the last few weeks had really happened. I mean really? More snow in 17 days than in any 20, 30 or 40 day stretch in history? More snow in 17 days than we get in a full season and a half?

What is more believable, that or the Patriots winning their fourth Super Bowl thanks to a rookie most of us have never heard of making a miraculous interception with seconds to go from the 1 yard line? You could have told me this whole story three weeks ago and I would have said you are nuts.

Well, 6 feet of snow later and one Patriots parade through the streets of what looked like Alaska and what do you know. . . miracles do happen. Records are made to be broken. Or should I say shattered, annihilated, destroyed…

We have clearly passed the fun and pretty stages of snowfall here in Southern New England. We have also blown right through the disruptive and downright annoying level as well. We are reaching DEFCON 1 in a hurry.

Your grandparents can no longer tell you any stories about how high the snowbanks were “in their day” or tell you that “you have never seen a real winter”. You are now living it. We are in THAT story. We are the lead to the national news. It isn’t in Buffalo or North Dakota, it is right here, in our backyards. And unfortunately there is more to the story…

Currently a rather disorganized storm is bringing rain and snow showers to the Pacific Northwest. Over the next few days, this storm will innocuously slide eastward along the U.S./Canadian border. Not really making headlines for any precipitation but ushering in some very cold, Arctic air behind it.

During the day on Thursday, as this weak storm nears New England, it will get a real shot in the arm from a digging jetstream. The storm will then transfer its energy off the Mid-Atlantic coastline (stop me if you haven’t heard this a dozen times this winter already) and blow up into a very powerful ocean storm.

Here is where two possibilities still exist.

#1) We catch just the beginning stages of this rapid development and get “fringed” by some light, but likely plowable snow in Eastern Massachusetts. This is currently the more likely scenario, however we cannot rule out. . .

#2) The whole system isn’t quite as progressive and it literally explodes in the perfect spot (the sweet spot, 40/70) for New England storms. We feel the full rage of this nor’easter, get blizzard conditions Thursday night into Friday, strong and damaging winds and a boatload of new snow.

Clearly the second option would cause MAJOR problems. With no place to put the snow and wind gusts which could exceed 50-60 mph I cannot even imagine the mess we would have on our hands. The next 24 hours of model runs will be critical in determining the final track, timing and ultimately the significance of this event in southern New England.

We are nearing the breaking point and a storm like this one could potentially hurdle us right over the edge. Please don’t take this as “hype”, this is a very serious situation. Of course, our team will keep you updated as the forecast becomes more clear.

One thing is certain, this pattern is going nowhere. The snow and cold are here to stay in New England, likely for at least the remainder of February. There is no thaw, no pattern change, no immediate relief in sight. Storm or no storm, later this week some of the coldest air thus far will pour down from Northern Canada. If it isn’t snow records, we will likely challenge some low temperature records over the weekend.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/10/another-powerful-storm-threatens-new-england/feed/52What To Expect From The Rest Of The Snow Stormhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/09/what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-the-snow-storm/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/09/what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-the-snow-storm/#commentsMon, 09 Feb 2015 16:00:04 +0000miketoolehttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=609096There is currently no light at the end of the tunnel, only sheets of white obscuring our view of spring.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150209112352943AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) – For the third straight Monday, we are dealing with a significant snowfall across southern New England.

This is far from a classic storm. The winds are barely a factor, the snow rates are generally light to moderate and there are essentially no coastal flooding concerns.

Simply put, this is a straight-forward snow event. In the end, the biggest challenge will be where to put all this new snow with many of our streets and sidewalks already overflowing.

Through Monday morning there has generally been about 6-to-12 inches of snow. A bit less along the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

The highest amounts have been in Worcester County and right near the coastline where a coastal front has enhanced the snowfall rates to as much as 2 inches per hour at times. In these areas as much as 12-to-16 inches of snow has fallen.

Timeline For Remainder Of Storm:

Some of the heaviest snowfall for the entire event will fall up to 1 p.m. on Monday.

A widespread 3-to-6 inches is expected in most of southern New England north of Cape Cod. This will push many towns near or over the foot mark and some jackpot areas near 20 inches.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Between 1 and 7 p.m. the snow will become more spotty and rates overall will decrease below an inch per hour.

The one exception may be inside 495 where some locally heavy, ocean-enhanced bands will continue. Generally about 1-to-3 inches in this 6 hour period, with the highest amounts near the coastline.

After 7 p.m., the snow continues to wind down.

Most of the accumulation will be done west of 495 with just some pockets of light snow overnight. Inside 495, close to the coast, a few moderate bands will linger. Areas along the North and South Shore could still pick up several more inches in these bands. By 7 a.m. Tuesday the last few pockets of snow will come to end over the South Shore and Cape.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/09/what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-the-snow-storm/feed/6Slow And Steady Storm Could Dump 2 Feet Of Snowhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/08/slow-and-steady-storm-could-dump-2-feet-of-snow/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/08/slow-and-steady-storm-could-dump-2-feet-of-snow/#commentsMon, 09 Feb 2015 04:00:51 +0000nealjrileyhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=608872For the third week in a row, we are in for a sizable snowstorm.]]>http://media.boston.cbslocal.com/CBSBOS_20150209054321707AA.mp4

BOSTON (CBS) — It has become a tradition. For the third week in a row, we are in for a sizable snowstorm to start the work week.

Two weeks ago it was the blizzard. Starting on Monday, the Blizzard of 2015 raged all day Tuesday and left many schools closed for several days to follow.

Last week it was the Groundhog Day Nor’easter, another early week storm with most of the snow coming on Monday, once again putting many schools and businesses on hold until midweek.

And here we go again. This week’s episode has already begun with several inches on the ground well before the first miserable commute.

Three weeks, three big storms, all very different in their duration and makeup, but all with one thing very much in common — a lot of snow.

If I were to characterize this storm in just a few words it would be, “slow and steady.” No raging winds, no coastal flooding, no 3″ per hour bands of snow, just hour after hour, day after day of light to moderate snow. From this standpoint it should be the easiest storm of the bunch to keep up with. Snowblowers and plows should have no trouble clearing the way with a methodical and persistent approach. The biggest problem this go around…where the heck to put all this new snow.

Once again, let’s take you through the next couple days and help you devise a plan of attack.

Through Monday 7 a.m.

The snow strikes back. Once again the radar will fill in and steady snow will overspread the region. Expect an additional 3-6″ of snow in all of Southern New England. The exception would be over the South Coast, Cape and Islands, only 1-3″ in that region due to some mixing with sleet and perhaps freezing rain. By Monday morning the total snow so far will be 6-10″ anywhere north of a Plymouth to Providence line. South of there, storm totals will be 2-6″.

Monday 7 a.m.-5 p.m.
The snow continues. Another 3-6″ will accumulate during the daylight hours on Monday (except for the Cape and Islands). Many towns will be near or over the foot mark by the evening commute. Storm total accumulations by 5 p.m. Monday: 8-14″ from Plymouth to Providence and all points north…4-8″ from Cape Cod north to Plymouth…2-4″ on the Islands

Monday 5 p.m.-Tuesday 7 a.m.

The final act from this seemingly never-ending snow barrage. . . several more inches fall overnight. Finally, by Tuesday morning, the snow will begin to taper off and all the accumulation will be done by 7 a.m. Just some lingering light flurries near the coast Tuesday morning.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Storm total accumulations by 7 a.m. Tuesday (FINAL STORM TOTALS):

10-18″ from Plymouth to Providence and all points north. . . 5-10″ from the Cape Cod Canal north to Plymouth. . . 2-5″ from the mid to outer Cape and the Islands.

Could there be MORE than 18″ somewhere? Absolutely…

“Jackpot” zone. . . expect the highest snow totals to be just to the north of Boston in parts of Essex and Middlesex Counties due to a coastal front and ocean enhancement. In this zone 18-24″ is by no means out of the question.

Winds: Not a major concern this time. There will be a persistent east-northeast wind for the duration of the storm, peaking from Sunday night through Monday night. Gusts will top out between 40-45 mph at the coast in this time period.

Coastal Concerns: Tides are astronomically low. This is not going to be a coastal flooding event. However with several days of onshore winds over multiple tide cycles, significant beach erosion in likely.

Looking ahead, there is absolutely no relief from the cold or the snow in sight. There is a real possibility of another significant snow storm in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Following that, some of the coldest air, perhaps in years. We may challenge some record lows here later Friday and over the weekend.

When all is said and done this will no doubt be a winter for the record books. We will likely challenge the coldest and snowiest February’s ever recorded and perhaps even approach the snowiest winter ever in Boston, 107.6″ back in 1995-96.

We’re about to add to our heaping piles of snow in a major way in the next three to four days.

Get ready for more travel headaches, more cancelled schools and another several rounds of shoveling and snow blowing.

We are in for several days of snow, beginning Saturday afternoon and lasting through early Tuesday.

Watch Barry Burbank’s Latest Forecast

Let’s break it down day by day, flake by excruciating flake.

Saturday

Let it begin. First flakes will fly by Saturday afternoon. This first impulse of snow is the weakest of the bunch. By Saturday evening there will just be a coating to an inch. Very low impact.

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

The snow picks up and our first significant burst of snow arrives. Steady, light to moderate snow arrives around midnight and by 7 a.m. Sunday morning, expect an average of about 1-3″ for all of Southern New England.

(WBZ-TV)

Sunday 7 a.m.-5 p.m.

Slow and steady, the snow continues. Flakes fall mainly lightly, with most of the accumulation happening north of the Mass Pike. Expect an additional 1-to-3 inches to fall during this timeframe (again mainly north). Storm total accumulations by 5 p.m. Sunday will be 1-to-3 inches south of Mass Pike and 3-to-6 inches north of it.

Sunday Night 5 p.m.- Monday Morning 7 a.m.

The “storm” begins to organize a bit and by Monday morning we will be in the most significant portion of this event. Snowfall will be moderate to heavy at times late Sunday night and Monday morning. Several more inches are expected in this time frame. Storm total accumulations by 7 a.m. Monday will likely be 6-to-10 inches north of the Pike and 3-to-6 inches south of the Pike.

Monday 7 a.m.-5 p.m.

The peak of the storm arrives Monday. I expect another round of school cancellations on Monday and a treacherous morning and evening commute. Many towns will top the foot mark by Monday afternoon. Storm total accumulations by 5 p.m. Monday are expected between 8-to-14 inches from Plymouth to Providence and all points north, 4-to-8 inches from Cape Cod north to Plymouth and 2-to-4 inches on the islands.

Monday Night 5 p.m.-Tuesday Morning 7 a.m.

The final act from this seemingly never-ending snow barrage brings several more inches overnight. Finally by Tuesday morning the snow will begin to taper off and all the accumulation will be done by 7 a.m. Just some lingering light flurries near the coast Tuesday morning.

(WBZ-TV)

FINAL STORM TOTALS

Expect 10-to-18 inches from Plymouth to Providence and all points north, 5-to-10 inches from Cape Cod north to Plymouth and 2-to-5 inches on the islands.

In the “Jackpot” zone expect the highest snow totals to be just to the north of Boston in parts of Essex and Middlesex Counties due to a coastal front and ocean enhancement. If there is to be a 20 inches total somewhere in this storm (certainly possible) it would most likely be in this zone.

Winds

Not a major concern this time. There will be a persistent east-northeast wind for the duration of the storm, peaking from Sunday night through Monday night. Gusts will top out between 40-to-45 miles per hour at the coast in this time period.

Coastal Concerns

Tides are astronomically low. This is not going to be a coastal flooding event. However, with several days of onshore winds over multiple tide cycles, significant beach erosion in likely.

What’s Next

Brutal cold, perhaps record-breaking cold, could roll in late in the week. Thursday night through Sunday looks to be absolutely uninhabitable outdoors. And believe it or not there could be another snowstorm Thursday and/or Friday.

Waving the white flag. Uncle!

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/07/travel-headaches-school-closings-likely-during-four-day-snowstorm/feed/3More Snow & Cold As Winter Ramps Uphttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/06/more-snow-cold-as-winter-ramps-up/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/06/more-snow-cold-as-winter-ramps-up/#commentsSat, 07 Feb 2015 00:49:25 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=608700Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook Fitting on the anniversary of the Blizzard of ’78 to talk about some records of New England winter. Of course, ’78 is still the benchmark storm, and it’s […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

Cars stranded on Route 128 south in Needham after the Blizzard of ’78. (Photo courtesy: National Archives at Boston (Waltham))

Fitting on the anniversary of the Blizzard of ’78 to talk about some records of New England winter. Of course, ’78 is still the benchmark storm, and it’s the king for a number of reasons. It featured massive amounts of snow (most will say it’s still the biggest producer in Boston history), but also destructive coastal flooding and wicked winds gusting over 80mph. It also came in a point in time when we simply didn’t really know about things well in advance. We didn’t have the technology we do today to spread information. We didn’t shut down cities or keep people off the roads. There were no apps to check the steady snowfall moving in your direction, or to get a plow to your neighborhood. There are a myriad of reasons that it’s unlikely we’ll ever see a snowstorm have such a big impact on the population of southern New England.

Aftermath from the Blizzard of ’78. (Photo courtesy: National Archives at Boston (Waltham))

The 1977/78 winter was a big analog season we looked at when trying to figure out our seasonal outlook. And as luck would have it, so far it’s looking quite similar. A bit of a slow start with big snows picking up in mid-January and some monster snow events. The ’78 blizzard had the ‘forgotten’ storm on January 20th to precede it. However, there were 8 days with highs above freezing in Boston between the storms, including a stretch of 41F, 46F, and 55F in a row. In that sense, 2015 has been a little different. We had the big storm first, followed up by another foot and a half a few days later. And as for highs above freezing? Only 3, and all of those barely above that mark since the two big snow dumps. The forecast says we may only do that again once or twice for the next 10 days in Boston (and maybe not at all across the interior). So minimal chances for melting is keeping a deep snow pack intact.

What happened after all that snow in 1978? Big cold. February ended up being -4.7F below average…and we are well on our way to do the same this year. Today was our 13th straight day of below average temperatures and I think that streak is going to go to at *least* 22 straight days now. That’s remarkably persistent cold.

The snow farm growing in the Seaport district of Boston on Friday. Photo via @Coventures

In terms of snow records…here’s a little laundry list of what we’ve achieved in the area in the last couple of weeks:

– Snowiest 5 day stretch in Boston & Worcester

– Snowiest 7 day stretch in both

– Snowiest 10 day stretch in both

– Biggest all-time snowstorm for Worcester

– Biggest January snowstorm on record in Boston (6th all-time)

– Biggest 10 day snowfall ever recorded in the state of Maine (Eastport)

– About to set record for record snow depth in Bangor, ME (record is 53″, currently is 51″)

Impressive stuff, especially when you consider what’s expected over the next few days. Here are some of the bullet points ahead.

Saturday: Increasing clouds after a cold morning, and some areas of light snow should break out by dinnertime. Shouldn’t have any major impact on the day, so use it to clean up and make room for more snow! There’s a high water content in the snow pack on rooftops that’s starting to reach dangerous territory. If you feel it’s safe, please try to remove snow if you don’t have a steeply pitched roof. If not, try to hire a professional. Another foot or more could really start to produce some big issues as the weight increases on structures.

Sunday: Areas of light/moderate snow are likely throughout the day, but rates should be manageable. I wouldn’t go canceling all your plans at this point. Stay updated with the forecast this weekend, but as of this writing I think plows should be able to do a good job of keeping up and although travel will be slow, it’ll still be alright for those comfortable with winter driving conditions. Airports should be in decent shape with possibly some delays but not expecting widespread cancellations. This is especially true because this storm is highly localized. It’ll basically only be snowing in New England and New York State…so there won’t be a trickle down effect from multiple hubs around the country. The one part of this stage of the event that I’m not very confident in is SE Mass. If the band sets up a little more NW to SE, the totals could be a bit higher in that part of the state.

Monday: Highest impact from the storm. A more organized wave of low pressure should form along our stalled front and channel some stronger lift/onshore flow into the region. If we’re going to have issues getting around, Sunday night through Monday will be the time frame for it. We’ll see the most snow and highest rates at this point in the event, but we’ll also see warming temps. There could be some icing/rain that moves up to the South Shore (and very likely Cape/South Coast/Islands) during this time. The ‘lowest confidence’ area of this forecast is SE Mass. There’s a chance for totals to swing either way if the front/storm wobble just a little south or north. Highly recommend monitoring the forecast for any changes over the weekend as a small shift in the snow band could alter the end totals.

Longer Range Outlook:

So what happens when all is said and done? Let’s say that Boston gets a foot of snow. That would bring the seasonal total up to 66″. When we top 71″ (and I do think it will definitely happen) we’ll be into the Top 10 of all-time snowiest winters in the city with a lot of time still on the clock. It’s not out of the question that Boston gets to this club by Tuesday morning.

Unfortunately, there’s very little opportunity for melting after the storm. Highs should stay in the 20s/low 30s for Tuesday through Thursday. Even more remarkably, models are bullish on some extremely cold temperatures moving in by Thursday afternoon. Those projections tend to moderate a little bit over time, but even if that’s the case we could be looking at record cold Friday-Sunday next (Valentine’s Day) weekend. We may be talking about highs that could stay in the 0s/10s and subzero temps at night.

GFS forecast 850mb temperatures next weekend. Likely won’t turn out quite this bad, but all signs point to an extremely cold air mass. Source: Weatherbell

Believe it or not with all this frigid talk, we’ve turned the corner in terms of temperatures in daylight. Average highs and lows are on the rise. And I’m sure you’ve noticed the increasing daylight! We’ve gained more than an hour since the solstice, and will gain yet another hour by the end of February. Right around the corner from that is Daylight Saving Time and much later sunsets. So there are some marker posts that we’ve passed. While February is looking consistently cold and stormy pretty much as far as the eye can see, we know that it can’t last forever and the warmer air is drawing closer by the day.

It is beginning to feel a lot like the movie Groundhog Day around here. Wake up, shovel, clean off the car, sit in traffic for hours on end, get home, shovel, go to sleep, repeat.

I wish I had some good news to deliver. I wish I could tell you that the snow was about to stop for a while. Heck, I wish I could tell you that our temperatures were going to be humane at some point in the near future. But sadly, I got nothin’.

Nothing but more of the same ol’ story.

If you are nearing your breaking point, I would advise that you stop reading here. The rest of this blog is not for the faint of heart, reader discretion advised.

It starts with the cold.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

Friday will be one of the coldest days in recent memory here. Just about our entire region will wake up to temperatures below 0 Friday morning, perhaps even in Boston. Combine that with a gusty wind and it will feel like -15-to–20 degrees.

Temperatures will “recover” into the mid-teens for highs on Friday, but at least the wind will relax during the day.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

If you begin having snow withdrawals on Friday, fear not, a steady helping is on the way.

Beginning Saturday, it will be snowing off and on for nearly three days in southern New England. I wouldn’t call it a “storm” but more of a persistent, light-to-moderate snowfall.

So where is all this snow coming from?

Another cold front is going to come through during the day on Saturday sparking some more light snow. This front is going to essentially stall out to our south. This will create an atmospheric highway for small waves of low pressure to ripple along in the days to follow.

(WBZ-TV graphic)

At the same time, a strong area of high pressure will be stationary over eastern Canada, providing a never-ending source of cold air and onshore winds.

The perfect setup for a prolonged period of light, powdery snow.

What’s the Timeline?

The first “batch” of snow arrives late Saturday morning. A minor event, lasting through the afternoon, dropping a widespread coating to an inch or two.

After a small break Saturday evening, more snow arrives early Sunday morning. And from there it just keeps snowing and snowing and snowing, through the day on Monday, likely not fully tapering off until Tuesday morning.

If there were to be a peak of this storm, it would come Sunday night and Monday morning. This is when we could see the steadiest and heaviest period of snow accumulation.

How Much?

Given the fact that it is going to snow for about 72 hours (off and on) you would think this would be the storm of the century (nah, that happened a few weeks ago).

This is going to be a very light and gradual accumulation. Very manageable, no significant heavy bands, best way to describe it would be slow and steady. Early snow estimate right now: a widespread 6-to-12 inches of snow from Saturday morning though Tuesday morning.

Hard to pinpoint a “jackpot” area, but it would most likely be in Eastern Massachusetts, thanks to some ocean-enhancement.

Other Concerns?

Tides are astronomically low and the winds won’t be all that powerful but, there will be several days with a stiff, onshore wind. Enough to rough up the seas a good deal and raise concern for significant beach erosion.

Hang in there folks. If you haven’t learned to ski, no time like the present. All this snow is not going anywhere fast, might as well make the most of it.

]]>http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/05/sub-zero-temps-friday-more-snow-saturday-through-tuesday/feed/1Staying In The Freezer For Februaryhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/04/staying-in-the-freezer-for-february/
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/04/staying-in-the-freezer-for-february/#commentsWed, 04 Feb 2015 10:15:58 +0000epfisherhttp://boston.cbslocal.com/?p=607556Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook Okay, let’s be clear here. We were starting to sweat a little bit in early January about our seasonal forecast. The balmy December was quite a surprise while […]]]>Find Eric Fisher on Twitter and Facebook

Okay, let’s be clear here. We were starting to sweat a little bit in early January about our seasonal forecast. The balmy December was quite a surprise while we got doused with plenty of rain but no snow. The cold finally started pouring in for January, but still the snowflakes did not come. And then we hit January 24th and began an epic stretch of record-smashing snowfall over a short period of time. In short, now we wish we had gone higher with the snow forecast! Barry and I had kicked around the idea of calling for a ‘near record season’ for snow…and boy would we have some serious indigestion by MLK Day. But fortunes have reversed, the weather is doing more of what we initially expected, and the cold/snowy pattern is here to stay for a while. In fact, this is what the analog season we based a good portion of our outlook on (1977/78) did. A very slow start, and then the snow came fast and furious.

For Wednesday, we’re not expecting much more. In fact it’s handily the best day to have the Patriots victory parade in the city whether you agree with them going forward with it or not. In terms of the weather alone, it’s the mildest day of the forecast. We’ll hit the 30s, and while still below average it should feel fine out there after the cold early morning hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected and a few snow showers, but think of them as nature’s confetti to celebrate across the region. No travel issues should crop up.

Thursday’s setup is a little more complex. It kicks off Wednesday night as an arctic front moves our way. This should produce some snowfall late at night and into Thursday morning, so the am commute may turn out to be slow. Not expecting major accumulation, but 1-3″ may be around for the early drive. The colder air will pour in as the day goes on, so high temps should be early (upper 20s to low 30s) and it’ll feel much colder by the late afternoon.

Part two of this event is a wave of low pressure moving up along this front, which should at least graze the area Thursday afternoon and evening. It’s a close call, but most of the steady snow should be impacting SE Mass or over the ocean. So that means the afternoon and early evening could still be quite snowy there, especially Cape Cod and the Islands where 4-6″ is possible before the storm continues its track out to sea. Not a major event, but enough to require more resources in cleaning it all up.

The other part of the story is a renewed blast of frigid air, which will bring gusty winds and wind chill values down in the 0 to -25F range Thursday night and Friday morning. Highs likely won’t escape the 10s for many on Friday….more than 20F below average. And as winds relax Friday night we’ll probably end up with some subzero temps in the area again. Lucky us!

A weak short-wave blows through on Saturday with a chance for some flurries/snow showers, and then we’ll turn our attention to the next threat. There’s still a lot of uncertainty with this one, but the Sunday night into early next week setup needs to be monitored closely. A strong area of arctic high pressure will be situated over SE Canada while an area of low pressure heads east out of the Ohio Valley. There are a couple of possible outcomes here. The first is that the high is so strong that it shunts the storm off to our south and keeps us mainly dry (albeit very cold). The other is that the storm tracks nearby, gets slowed down by the high, we’ll have a ton of cold air to work with, and the flow will be off the Atlantic Ocean for a long duration. Of course, no one is really rooting for that second possibility, but it’s definitely a potential outcome and we’ll be watching the trends for this all week.

Storm or not, it’ll be very cold Sunday through Tuesday. It looks like *at least* the first 12 days of February will feature below average temperatures in the area. That’s an impressive run of cold, and it looks like our thoughts of ‘even colder than last year’ are going to pan out. January was well below average (and colder than January 2014) and we’ll need to be more than -2.8F below average to beat last February. A tall task for sure…but it’ll definitely be off to the right start. The longer range points to more shots of cold and stormy weather well into the month…so even though pitchers and catchers will be reporting soon and days are getting longer…there is still quite a bit of winter yet to come.