OrderFlow charts and Notes 29/09/14

General Chat Transcript

Room Name: VtrenderDate and Time: September 29, 2014 09:21:53[08:52]r m : Good Morning folks![08:52]Porus : GM, rm[08:53]r m : Hi Porus[08:55]Sumit : gm rm, Porus[08:55]Sharad : GM[08:56]r m : Hi Sumit[08:58]Porus : hi[08:58]Shai : Gm all[08:59]Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-29th-sept/[09:03]Shai : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-270914/[09:07]Saurabh : Hi, Good Morning to all[09:19]Shai : Open below NE highs[09:20]Shai : If you look at the OrderFlow on friday at the close, you should not be surprised to see this open despite the “positive” news at the clsoe[09:21]Shai : It was a big minus number- http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NF_vol_at_price_12.png[09:22]Shai : Pre market levels to watch is 7988 where theere were buyers[09:22]Shai : NF would be a buy abv 8007 with sl below 7990 for 8034/ 8057[09:24]Chiranthan : can enter now?[09:24]Shai : yes[09:25]Shai : good buyers seen now[09:25]Shai : 7988 buyer from friday is responding[09:30]Shai : delta is good on this move +164[09:31]Shai : so shorts have moved out early at open[09:33]Shai : from a weekly perscpective the NF has to trade above 8044 for shorts to think about covering[09:33]Shai : IN Bnf that would be 15740[09:34]Shai : Lots of shorts in the NF from that 8162 Sept F level (equivalent to 8204 Oct F)[09:37]Sumit : Shai, can you find that larger OF line in NF. in bnf it is around 15745[09:38]Sumit : ‘OF Wave’[09:39]Shai : I’ll get that back on the chart[09:39]Sumit : thanks[09:39]Shai : NF it’s below 8000 now[09:39]Sumit : ok[09:40]r m : (*** Private to Sumit ) @Sumit, do you use larger OF as well for trading?[09:40]Sumit : yes, sometimes[09:41]r m : (*** Private to Sumit ) Thanks![09:41]Shai : Sl now on longs is 8002[09:41]Shai : can book half if you got closer to 8010[09:42]Shai : 8032[09:42]Shai : 8032- (09:22) Shai :NF would be a buy abv 8007 with sl below 7990 for 8034/ 8057[09:43]Shai : Buyers are in command today[09:44]Shai : If long in NF keep watching the Max levels and the delta level[09:44]Shai : That will tell you if new buyers are coming or existing ones from open are booking[09:45]Rahul G : shai the max u r refering to is 312 now[09:45]Shai : yes[09:45]Rahul G : so this is +ve means buyers[09:45]Rahul G : how will the other situation be[09:45]Shai : 697 x 990[09:45]Shai : 697 is sellers and 990 are buyers[09:45]Shai : always sellers x buyers[09:46]Shai : the diff is 304 which tells us that buyers are more aggressive[09:46]Rahul G : if the market was selling off the max would be negative ?[09:47]Amit J : min would be higher[09:47]Shai : the delta would be neg[09:47]Shai : ref friday chart[09:47]Rahul G : ok[09:47]Shai : we are doing an OrderfLow correction of friday[09:57]Shai : Longs of the morning still holding in NF[09:59]Shai : we need a huge positive delta number at the close today to entetain hopes of a pull back this week[09:59]Shai : if the number is negative even today that would mean that new shorts came in today to add to the previous ones of last week[10:00]Shai : 15580 is a buyer in BNF[10:03]Porus : shai, VWAP being below PS2 have any significance?[10:03]Amit J : such a big delta and we are not able to cross vwap. any comment on this shai[10:13]Porus : shai, Delta is building up but traded volumes are low.[10:24]Shai : Porus the ps2 is the positional orderflow and has no bearing on vwap which is current day[10:24]Shai : Amit could be signs of longer time frame accumulating[10:34]Shai : If orderflow in NF stays at 450 plus today we can read that most of the shorts from 8200+ are covering[10:35]Shai : Of course in terms of price action I would be more secure if we move abv 8041 and preferable close abv 8057 today[10:36]Shai : BNF is still a worry though for the long side[10:36]Shai : at -33 it means that shorts of last week are still in[10:38]Amit J : How many contracts means 1 in this delta[10:38]r m : i think it is 1k[10:42]Shai : It’s volume weighted so the number is not important- but it is the same across the board so effective[10:43]r m : ok[10:43]Shai : I have stressed from the beginning that the actual number is not important but it’s a refernce for the auction[10:45]Shai : besides it is not in the number of buyers+ nos of sellers[10:45]Shai : that is called ‘volume’[10:45]Shai : this is agressive buyers and sellers[10:46]Rahul G : shai everyting points out that buyers are in control but for the last 30-35 minutes it is in this range of 10 points does this suggest buyers not interested[10:46]Rahul G : also what we should look for sellers comming in the market[10:47]Shai : yes we need a bit of patience- buyers will hold till 7988 remains[10:48]Shai : what’s against them is the seller at the close near 8040 – 8055 on friday[10:48]Amit J : thanks shai[10:49]Shai : basically the auction is the 7988 buyer of friday ( refer friday’s chart) and the seller of 8040+[10:49]Shai : from evidence of the morning we know the buyer wants to defend 7988[10:49]Shai : so through the day today we wait to see if 8040 + seller covers[10:50]Shai : so far we know he is covering[10:50]Shai : Hope I am clear and not confusing anyone[10:51]Shai : Auctions span across days and are not limited to a particular day[10:51]Amit J : yes shai very clear[10:52]Shai : Thanks[10:52]Shai : look at the number of today against those of friday, thurs and wed which were all negative[10:53]Shai : only in NF that is[10:53]Shai : BNF is still down and the seller holding[10:53]Shai : Besides CNXIT at day high creating additional pressure on BNF[10:58]r m : https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByO5SLJCIAAQQca.jpg:large[10:59]Narendra : from where i will get the levels of nifty PS1 PS2[11:00]r m : tinyurl.com/FDNotes[11:02]r m : http://tinyurl.com/FDNotes[11:02]Narendra : thanks[11:02]r m : welcome[11:19]Shai : Spot traders : spot at 7973 now- using 7941 as SL one can trade for 8040 as tgt from here with an 8050 CE[11:20]Shai : 7941 and 8040 are spot numbers[11:25]Shai : BNF OrderFlow is negative[11:25]Shai : Auction theory view was that 15500- 15700 was poorly managed and needed a proper auction[11:25]Shai : Obs- 3) The move from 15520 to 15700 created a low volume zone which needs to auction out to find response[11:26]Shai : Hypo 1- Hypo1) If we stay below 15789 in the first session then BNF should drift down to 15629 and and 15500 where OrderFlow needs to be watched for signs of new buyers coming in the market to defend the prices.[11:48]Manik : @ rm finally BNF in sync with NF ??[11:50]r m : looks like that but more clarity when bnf goes and stays above vwap[11:50]Manik : s, from morning BNF has nt tested vwap even once[11:53]r m : yes, its delta is not negative now though, all morning bnf delta was negative though small[12:05]Sharad : Buyer delta increasing in BNF[12:07]Sharad : I think this 646 delta of NF and 100 of BNF is shoing some positive surprise tomorrow in rbi meet[12:13]Shai : or shorts covering in anticpation of tomorrow[12:13]Shai : since it is not matched by price staying abv vwap yet[12:13]Sharad : ok[12:14]Amit J : ORDER AGAIN AT 8015-20 RANGE LIKE LAST WEEK[12:14]Amit J : LAST WEEK SELLER NOW BUYERS[12:14]Shai : yes[12:33]Amit J : Buyers in Banknifty also[12:41]Shai : 8035[12:42]Shai : 8018 is a big buyer[13:05]Shai : 8012- 8018 now firmly with the day buyer[13:05]Shai : seller seen holding 8030[13:06]Shai : Most of these longs from here will keep stops below 8003 VAH now[13:06]Shai : and try to absorb all the selling at vwap[13:17]Shai : 8003[13:25]Shai : back up[13:25]Shai : 8023[13:26]Shai : we will get a 20 point move abv 8035 to 8055 sl of 8018[13:26]Porus : shai, why is that?[13:34]Shai : 8030-35 is the only seller in the day[13:34]Shai : and his covering creates an upmove[13:42]Porus : ok, thanks[13:48]Shai : mw[13:57]Porus : USD Oct fut @ 61.93[13:58]Shai : yes[14:04]Shai : BNf orderflow has also got better[14:04]Shai : waiting now for price to do it’s part[14:16]Shai : Day type is a normal day[14:18]Shai : There is a change in the orderflow vol at price now abv 8025[14:18]Shai : Buyers have also moved into those prices abv 8025[14:19]Sharad : Shai what is this 8016 PS2[14:20]Shai : was a booking level for the OrderFlow short on bigger TF[14:21]Sharad : ok so buy above it for longer term orderflow[14:21]Shai : (11:02) r m:http://tinyurl.com/FDNotes[14:21]Shai : No use that as sl for the next buy alert on twitter[14:22]Shai : That should come anytime as OF is showing covering[14:22]Shai : tgt would be ps1 8122 to begin[14:23]Sharad : ok and is any alert coming on twitter or mobile … i am not geting any[14:23]Shai : on @V2OF[14:24]Shai : If not activated – send a request to @V2OF from your twitter handle[14:24]Sharad : i am trying to follow it…[14:24]Sharad : sent[14:26]Sharad : and even can not login at site in premium section… tried even forget password …but no new password came in email since morning[14:30]r m : seller still perched at 8030[14:34]Shai : looks like we close normal[14:34]Porus : Shai, what does the large NF delta bode for tomorrow?[14:41]Shai : people are flat[14:42]r m : there will be enough excitement in the runup to RBI meet, even if Rajan ends up doing nothing![14:43]Shai : Basically shorts were sitting on profilts of 100- 150 points and they have booked today[14:49]Amit J : 20 pts prem reduced[14:55]Shai : 7995[14:55]Shai : looks like a close at vwap[15:03]r m : Yesterday’s vwap touched by both futures[15:08]Shai : buyers again at these lows[15:15]Shai : Buy an 8100 ce for tomorrow[15:15]Shai : we should get a good price on it before RBI[15:15]Chiranthan : 67 now[15:16]r m : NF back to highest delta of the day[15:16]Shai : 8052/ 8106 F are immediate tgts on the CE[15:17]Shai : day type is a normal day[15:17]Shai : close at vwap/ dpoc at 8013 would have been normal[15:18]Shai : 8001[15:18]Shai : 10 points 10 mins[15:18]r m : normal day “toofan ke pehle ki shaanti” 🙂[15:19]Shai : yes mostly trend days or neutral days follow these day types[15:19]Porus : but what are the expectations for tomorrow?[15:19]Shai : all the more possible cos of RBI tom[15:19]Amit J : status quo[15:19]Shai : RBI is mostly a non event and no expectations have been built[15:20]Amit J : chance of rate cut is minimum but comments should positive[15:20]Narendra : i think the shorts have been covered and no longs added[15:20]Shai : Yes Narendra that is the right view[15:20]Narendra : so playing defensive before event[15:20]Sharad : i think RBI will do 50 basis rate cut[15:20]Shai : There was no new selling on that sip to 7970[15:21]Shai : *dip[15:22]Sharad : Shai BNF can do 16200 ? if rate cut[15:22]Shai : BNF has lots of shorts built in and still holding[15:23]Shai : trigger for 16200 will be if 15630 spot crosses[15:23]Sharad : ok[15:23]Shai : yes possible easily if shorts cover[15:24]Sharad : 16200 and 8175 ?[15:25]Shai : 8060 spot will be a close to watch tom on monthly[15:25]Sharad : exactly 100 + from here adn so NF also[15:26]Shai : spot has to cross 7989 for that[15:26]Shai : then we can add abv that[15:26]Chiranthan : Add ce’s?[15:26]Shai : 8013 – (15:18) Shai :10 points 10 mins[15:27]Shai : (14:55) Shai :looks like a close at vwap[15:27]Shai : yes Chiranthan[15:27]Shai : Tom is monthly close[15:27]Chiranthan : ok[15:27]Porus : sl for ce?[15:28]Shai : today’s lows are the stops for the ce[15:28]Shai : OrderFlow is good today in both and we should look at an upmove pre RBI[15:29]Shai : post event inventory change needs to be seen[15:29]Sharad : can i buy 15600 CE @ 302 ?[15:29]Sharad : ohhh closing[15:29]Shai : yes[15:29]Shai : 16000 ce was better[15:29]Sharad : just bot[15:29]Sharad : 15600 CE[15:30]Shai : ok[15:30]Sharad : RM can you tell if 16200 tomorrow what can be the 15600 call?[15:30]Shai : Bye all[15:30]Shai : Have a nice eve[15:30]Anay : bye all[15:30]Porus : bye[15:31]Chiranthan : Bye all[15:31]Sharad : Bye … will ask RM tomorrow[15:31]r m : just calculating 🙂[15:31]Sharad : ok thanks[15:31]r m : 565 at current volatility[15:32]r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂[15:32]Sharad : 565 ? how[15:33]Sharad : 15600 ce if price is 16200 than it should atlease more than 600[15:33]Sharad : 16200-15600 = 600[15:33]r m : i checked on NOW’s option calculator[15:33]r m : yes, must be some mistake[15:33]Sharad : so in discount[15:33]Sharad : yes some mistake[15:33]Sharad : there should be 600 + some premium[15:34]Sharad : any way Thanks RM[15:34]Sharad : and bye[15:34]r m : bye, i calculated at 16000, sorry[15:34]Sharad : ohhh[15:34]Sharad : ok tomorrow then[15:34]Sharad : will check[15:34]r m : yep, bye[15:34]Sharad : Byeeeee