Loewen: Trump win, Clinton win, it tells us little about America

(FILES) This combination of file photos taken on September 26, 2016 shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton facing off during the first presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. PAUL J. RICHARDS / AFP/Getty Images

Suppose Donald Trump wins Tuesday’s election by half a percentage point and by a handful of Electoral College votes. What conclusion would we draw about the American electorate? Perhaps that they were given over to nativist sentiments, that the United States was more racist than we imagined, and that the world was turning away from a period of more open borders and greater trade.

Now, suppose Hillary Clinton wins the election in the same manner. Perhaps we would then conclude that the United States had continued on a steady progressive march, extending the presidency to a woman after it had been previously held by an African-American. It would be a country affirming the provision of near universal health care. It would similarly be a country characterised by relatively open borders.

There are two important problems with such interpretations. First, it is fundamentally the same electorate and thus country which would produce either outcome. The presidency is an indivisible office; only one person can hold it. But in a closely fought election – in a toss up – the message given by the election of the winner is no clearer than the message given by the rejection of the loser.

Indeed, the story of every election since George W. Bush’s re-election is that the American electorate is relatively evenly divided. Even in a seeming blow-out – such as Barack Obama’s seven-point victory over John McCain – the election was still a closely fought affair. Only a handful of states change hands election over election. Compared to Canadian elections, where party fortunes can move 15 or 20 points in a single contest, American elections are a story of stability.

We should thus not read these as elections in which the nature of a country has fundamentally changed. Instead, we should recognize that the voter coalitions underlying each party are generally stable, with elections being decided by a small number of voters changing their minds. Realignments do occur and often in momentous terms, but they are far from the norm.

The implication of this is that we should not radically update our view of a country based on a single election.

The second problem with such interpretations is that they miss that elections are not decided principally on issues. Indeed, they may not even be decided on issues at all. They are a joint contest of concerns, personalities and values. Voters look to politicians who share their broad concerns and values, and whose personalities they feel are suited to the times. Occasionally, issues will help illustrate the values of a politician, and these will be the reason a voter imagines for their vote choice.

For example, voters do not prefer Trump simply on the basis of wishing to build a wall along the Mexican border. Rather, they likely have an underlying desire for order. This is likely coupled with a wish to not live among those who look different from them and who may compete for their jobs. Or, perhaps they feel a general economic dislocation and feel that limiting illegal migration will address this concern.

The wall does not matter, it is merely the reason that the voter gives for preferring the candidate. Another policy that expressed the same values and addressed the same concerns would work equally well.

We do not wish to believe that we vote purely on instinct, on a preference for some simple values over others. So we look to politicians to give us reasons for our feelings. We feel like we are thinking, but we are not. The problem is that these reasons then become mandates for governing and they become the basis on which we judge whole countries, even those we thought we knew so well before. America will not change overnight next Tuesday.

Only our understanding of it and the understanding of Americans. We should resist the temptation to believe the reasons politicians give us for their victories.

Peter Loewen is the Director of the School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Toronto.

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