ABC Elections: 2006 South Australian Election

Key Seats by Party and Margin

Labor

ALP 0.5%: An electorate covering the inner eastern suburbs of Adelaide, Norwood will be forever associated with former Premier Don Dunstan, who represented the seat from 1953 until his resignation as Premier in 1979. Apart from two brief Liberal interregnums, the seat has continued its Labor history, represented since 1997 by Vini Ciccarello. She needed to work very hard to win re-election in 2002, and despite improved opinion polls for Labor, will again have to work hard in 2006. The Liberal Party have nominated a high profile candidate in former Adelaide Crows footballer Nigel Smart.

ALP 0.6%: Based on Adelaide, North Adelaide and the city's girdle of parklands, the electorate also includes several inner city suburbs to the north and north-east, including Prospect, Walkerville, Gilberton and Medindie. Once a traditional Labor seat, Adelaide was won by the Liberal Party at the 1989 election by Dr Michael Armitage, who held the seat until 2002, his hard work re-enforcing his majority later reversed by electoral redistributions. His retirement saw a tight contest between former Adelaide Lord Mayor Jane Lomax-Smith standing as the Labor candidate, and then Deputy Lord Mayor Michael Harbison as her Liberal opponent. In a rugged battle that attracted considerable media attention, Lomax-Smith won the seat for Labor, one of only two seats gained by the party. Now Minister for Education and Children's Services as well as Minister for Tourism, Lomax-Smith had been set to face a strong challenge with the decision of Unley Liberal MP Mark Brindal to switch seats. However, revelations over a gay affair forced Brindal to withdraw from the contest.

ALP 3.2%: Covers the outer north-eastern suburbs of Salisbury East and parts of Gulfview Heights, Wynn Vale, Greenwith, Golden Grove and Salisbury Heights. It covers a stretch of newer housing estates, exactly the sort of area where the Liberal Party have polled well at recent Federal elections. However, at the state level, Wright has been held by the Labor Party's Jennifer Rankine since 1997. Her Liberal opponent will be Stephen Ernst, and while the expected swing to Labor makes this a long shot for the Liberals to win, it is the sort of seat to which Labor will have to pay attention.

Liberal

LIB 2.1%: A marginal Liberal electorate covering the inner eastern suburbs of Campbelltown, Felixstowe, Hectorville, Glynde, Tranmere, Kensington Park, Kensington Gardens and parts of Magill and Rosslyn Park. First created in 1977, Hartley was a marginal Labor electorate through the 1980s until won by Liberal Joe Scalzi on the election of the Brown government in 1993. He retained the seat despite an 11.7% swing in 1997, but more importantly was able to defend what was by then the government's most marginal seat at the 2002 election. By fending off Labor's challenge, Scalzi deprived Mike Rann of a clear Parliamentary majority. However, with Labor's stocks in opinion polls now much higher, Scalzi will face a real fight at the 2006 election, despite the Electoral Boundaries Commission increasing his majority from 0.7% to 2.1%. His Labor opponent will be Grace Portolesi.

LIB 2.1%: The state's second largest electorate, Stuart covers the north-east outback east of Lake Torrens and the Oodnadatta Track. Its main population centre is the industrial city of Port Augusta, the electorate also stretching further south into the state's northern agricultural districts, including Orroroo, Peterborough, Jamestown, Burra and Morgan on the Murray River. A seat whose name has a long Labor history, Stuart was abolished in 1993, only to be revived in 1997 as a marginal Liberal seat. It is currently represented by Liberal Graham Gunn, Australia's longest serving MP, having been returned as an MP at every election since 1970. A former Speaker of the House of Assembly, he came perilously close to defeat by Labor's Justin Jarvis in 2002. Labor has again nominated Jarvis for the 2006 election.

LIB 2.3%: Once based on Gawler and rural areas to the north, Light now extends south of the Gawler River to include the outer Elizabeth suburbs of Munno Para, Smithfield Plains and parts of Davoren Park. Once the first major rural town north of Adelaide, Gawler is increasingly becoming a satellite town of Adelaide and the electorate of Light is slowly being drawn into the metropolitan area with each redistribution. A Liberal seat since the Second World War, it has been held by current incumbent Malcolm Buckby since 1993. What had been quite a safe seat previously was made highly marginal by the redistribution ahead of the 2002 election, which removed rural areas to the north and added several Labor voting outer suburbs of Elizabeth. As a result, Labor's Deputy Leader Annette Hurley chose to move from her safe seat of Napier to contest Light in an attempt to win the seat for Labor. In 2001, her prospects looked good, but Labor's dive in the polls in early 2002 made her challenge look somewhat quixotic, Buckby easily re-elected for the Liberal Party. Now with Labor's polls again soaring, Buckby will again come under challenge, Labor also having a higher profile local candidate in Gawler Mayor Tony Piccolo.

LIB 3.3%: Covers the eastern and lower hills suburbs to the east of the Adelaide CBD. Below the Hills face it includes the suburbs of Athelstone, Newton, Paradise, Rostrevor, Woodforde, Teringie and parts of Magill and Rosslyn Park. In the Hills it includes Castambul, Montacute, Cherryville and parts of Norton Summit and Basket Range. A new name adopted at the 2002 election, Morialta had previously been known as Coles, and has been represented in Parliament by Joan Hall since 1993. The wife of former Liberal Premier Steele Hall, she was a key factional power broker in the Brown-Olsen battles through the 1990s. Appointed a Minister under John Olsen, she was forced to resign in 2002 over her handling of the Hindmarsh Stadium re-development. With a margin that makes the seat vulnerable to a now popular government, her Labor opponent is Lindsay Simmons.

LIB 3.6%: An electorate in two parts, Mawson covers the outer southern suburbs of Woodcroft, Hackham, Hackham West, Huntfield Heights and Noarlunga Downs, as well as extending south of the Onkaparinga Gorge to include the southern wine region around McLaren Vale and Willunga. In the past three decades, Mawson has been a bellwether seat, the 2002 election being the only occasion since 1970 that the party that won Mawson did not also end up forming government. A marginal Labor electorate ahead of the 1993 election, it was won easily by the Liberal Party's Robert Brokenshire, who has held it without serious challenge since. A former Minister for Police, Brokenshire's victory in 2002 makes him the first MP for Mawson to sit on the opposition benches. Labor made little headway in 2002, but improved opinion polls make this the sort of seat the party could win in 2006. Labor has pre-selected a candidate with some media profile in sports journalist turned media adviser Leon Bignel.

LIB 5.0%: Covers the southern coastal suburbs of Adelaide stretching south from Hove, including Brighton, Seacliff, Seacliff Park, Kingston Park, Marino, Hallett Cove and south of the Port Stanvac oil refinery, O'Sullivan Beach and parts of Christies Beach and Christie Downs. First created in 1985, Bright was one of the electorates gained by the Liberal Party in its narrow 1989 defeat, victorious candidate Wayne Matthew retaining the seat at the three subsequent elections. He served as a Minister in the last Liberal administration, but will be retiring at the 2006 election. Replacing him as Liberal candidate will be Angus Redford, who will give up the Legislative Council seat he has held since 1993. His Labor opponent will be school teacher and former journalist Chloe Fox, who contested the local Federal seat of Boothby in 2004, and is also the daughter of noted children's author Mem Fox. Shapes as a seat that could fall to Labor if the Rann government's popularity continues through to election day.

LIB 5.5%: Outer north-east suburbs of Adelaide, including Tea Tree Gully, Banksia Park, Vista, Redwood Park, Ridgehaven, St Agnes, Highbury and parts of Hope Valley. An electorate that has been held by both sides of politics since its creation in 1977, it was one of the marginal seats picked up by the Liberal Party in 1989 when the Bannon government came close to defeat. After that narrow victory, new Liberal MP Dorothy Kotz picked up a massive swing in 1993 and has been comfortably returned at subsequent elections. However, at 5.5%, her seats sits at about the upper point of the swing to Labor indicated by recent public opinion polls, and her decision to retire will hurt Liberal chances of holding the seat. Labor have nominated Rann government staffer Tom Kenyon, and he will be opposed by local councillor Mark Osterstock for the Liberal Party.

LIB 9.0%: Covers the inner southern suburbs of Adelaide immediately south of the CBD. Unley was a Liberal electorate from its creation in 1938 until being won for Labor by former Australian wicketkeeper Gil Langley at the 1962 election. He was succeeded by Kym Mayes in 1982, a Minister in the Bannon and Arnold government's who lost his seat in the 1993 landslide. Subsequent redistributions have shifted the seat back into the Liberal camp, the current MP Mark Brindal representing the seat since 1993. However, he decided to move seat and contest Adelaide, though revelations about a gay affair eventually forced Brindal to retire instead. In 2006, the Liberal candidate will be David Pisoni, and he will be opposed by Michael Keenan, Mayor of Unley and a former Independent candidate who has been lured back into the Labor Party. With a retiring Liberal MP and a high profile Labor candidate, this is a seat to watch even though it is above the swing indicated by opinion polls.

Others

IND 4.7% ALP v LIB: An elongated north-south electorate crossing O'Halloran Hill in Adelaide's southern suburbs west of the Main South Road. Since the seat's creation in 1970, Mitchell has only once left Labor hands at an election, being won by Liberal Colin Caudell in 1993 at an election where the defeat of the Arnold government left Labor without a seat south of the Torrens. Mitchell was re-gained for Labor by Kris Hanna in 1997, and he was easily re-elected in 2002. However, Hanna resigned from the Labor Party in 2003 and joined the Greens, but has now left that party as well and will contest the 2006 election as an Independent. Labor's new candidate is former Brighton Mayor Rosemary Clancy, the Liberal Party nominating Jack Gaffey. Hanna's only chance of victory is to win on preferences, which means he will have to attract a substantial personal vote to finish ahead of the Liberal candidate.

IND 12.2% vs LIB: Covering the outer-southern Adelaide housing estates surrounding the Happy Valley Reservoir, the electorate includes the suburbs of Happy Valley, Aberfoyle Park, Reynella East and parts of O'Halloran Hill, Flagstaff Hill and Chandlers Hill. In the 1980s, Fisher was a mortgage belt seat where interest rates were critical to Liberal victory in 1989, though the area is much more settled and conservative voting these days. Created before the 1985 election and won at its first contest by Labor, it has been held since 1989 by Bob Such. A strong supporter of Dean Brown, Such was dropped from the Ministry by John Olsen and later resigned from the Liberal Party, contesting and winning re-election as an Independent in 2002. While not voting to put the Rann government in office, Such has since provided general support to the government, serving as Deputy Speaker before taking on the Speaker's role following the implosion of Peter Lewis. His Liberal opponent will be Andrew Minnis. In two-party terms, the Liberal majority versus the Labor is 6%, and some in the Labor Party have been talking up the prospects of Labor candidate Amanda Rishworth.

NAT 14.0% vs LIB: Based on a string on towns in the state's Riverland irrigation district, Chaffey includes Renmark, Berri, Barmera, Loxton, and Waikerie. Since this mid-1970s, this has been a safe non-Labor seat. However, that has not translated into the seat being a safe Liberal Party seat, the Nationals winning the seat in 1997 with the election of Karlene Maywald. Her victory was a critical loss for the Olsen government, denying the Liberal Party firm control of parliamentary numbers, a problem that was to worsen over the following four years when Bob Such and Peter Lewis left the Liberal party. Maywald herself increased her majority in 2002, polling 49.2% of the primary vote. After initially not voting to support the appointment of the Rann government, she subsequently joined the government, becoming Minister for the River Murray, Minister for Regional Development, Minister for Small Business, Minister for Consumer Affairs, Minister for Science and the Information Economy. Her Liberal opponent is local real estate agent and grape grower Anna Baric.

IND 26.7% vs LIB: Dominated by the city of Mount Gambier in the state's far south-east corner, Mount Gambier had been a Labor seat until gained by the Liberal Party's Harold Allison in 1975. His retirement in 1997 saw a contested Liberal Party pre-selection, the spurned candidate Rory McEwen choosing to nominate as an Independent, winning the seat narrowly before being returned in a landslide at the 2002 election. Having been a member of the Liberal Party as recently as 1997, after having been the Liberal Party nominee for Speaker when Labor backed Peter Lewis in March 2002, McEwen made the remarkable decision in November 2002 to join the Rann Cabinet in the first of several moves by the Premier to secure his parliamentary majority. McEwen is currently Minister for Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, Minister for State/Local Government Relations and Minister for Forests. His Liberal opponent will be Peter Gandolfi.