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The ever-expanding Senate playing field, or not

By Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez

1. Just when you think the 2010 Senate playing field is set, it spawns a few more races.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin (D) announced Wednesday that he will push for a 2010 special election to replace Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), and if he really wants one, that pretty much means there will be one. Combine that with new developments in the races for seats held by Sens. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) and David Vitter (D-La.) and it looks like an already staggering number of competitive seats may only increase.

But how competitive are these seats, really? The answer: It's worth a healthy dose of skepticism.

The news in West Virginia on Wednesday wasn't all good for Republicans. While they would definitely prefer a 2010 special election to a 2012 one, Manchin also gave a strong indication that he would run for the seat, saying he is "highly" interested.

Many Republicans are skeptical that their choice candidate, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), would oppose him, and with his 70-plus percent approval rating, it's hard to imagine anybody else providing a real impediment to a Sen. Joe Manchin.

In Louisiana, Vitter was forced to publicly face reporters' questions Wednesday about a former staffer who allegedly stabbed his girlfriend and then, according to reports, worked on women's issues in Vitter's office (see below for more details). But Vitter has weathered a prostitution scandal, and there are a few more immediate concerns in the state than a congressional staffer right now.

Wisconsin is the emerging story, it would appear. Businessman Ron Johnson's challenge to Feingold got a write-up this week from the Associated Press, and polling shows that Feingold is anything but bulletproof.

Republicans think their candidate has a good profile -- not to mention self-funding ability -- but Feingold is a tough campaigner who won competitive races in all three of his previous Senate campaigns. Nobody is underestimating him, and Republicans are counting on a strong wind at their backs if they want to win this one.

With all of these seats, it's important to remember that they will be competing with many others for the attention and dollars of the national parties. Will Republicans go after Feingold when they could use the money to make sure they beat Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.)? Will Democrats pursue Vitter if they have close to a dozen seats to defend? Time will tell.

Adding West Virginia and Wisconsin to the mix would give Republicans 13 legit pickup opportunities (they need 10 to take the majority), while Louisiana would give on-the-defensive Democrats a half-dozen of their own.

2. Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) on Wednesday disputed an ABC News story about a former staffer who allegedly attacked and stabbed his girlfriend.

In his first public news conference since the story broke (tracker video here), an irritable and terse Vitter said the matter has been dealt with and is old news. The staffer was suspended two years ago, when the matter was brought to Vitter's attention, but was forced to resign last month after the news of his arrest went public.

Vitter said that ABC was incorrect to say that the former aide, Brent Furer, had been assigned to women's issues.

"He was not," Vitter said. "That's just one of several issues that have been completely misreported. Tonya Newman, Nicole Hebert in my office are assigned to women's issues. That's always been the case."

Despite Vitter's assertion, Furer was listed as a legislative aide for women's issues by a directory of congressional staffers and in other places as well. Vitter's campaign didn't respond Wednesday to a request for comment about the discrepancy.

Furer was forced to pay a fine and received a suspended sentence.

It's not clear whether the situation will blow up in any significant way for the senator. His reaction here seems to be similar to his reaction to the prostitution scandal: hunker down and wait for it to pass.

But while the prostitution story broke when he was a freshman senator in the middle of his term, he's now a freshman senator running for reelection, and the media's appetite could be harder to satisfy. At least, that's what Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) is banking on.

3. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has come out in opposition to the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan, as his primary with former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) looms.

In a USA Today op-ed, McCain points to the fact that Kagan denied military recruiters access to students through the Harvard Law School Office of Career Services because of the Don't Ask Don't Tell policy.

"I cannot support her nomination to the Supreme Court where, based on her prior actions, it appears unlikely that she would exercise judicial restraint," McCain wrote.

The announcement is consistent with McCain's previous vote against Kagan's nomination for solicitor general last March; he also voted against the nomination of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor last year. Moreover, the vote guards McCain against criticism from Hayworth, who went up with his first TV ad of the race yesterday.

In the 30-second spot, Hayworth's wife, Mary, charges that McCain has "sold out the people of Arizona on immigration, bailouts and tax increases."

"Now, John McCain has embraced character assassination to keep his job," Mary Hayworth says. "John McCain should be ashamed. J.D.'s not perfect, but he is a principled conservative."

Hayworth has lost momentum in the race after the revelation that he appeared in a 2007 infomercial promising access to "free government money." McCain has hammered his rival over the infomercial scheme, releasing two newTV ads this week calling Hayworth a "huckster" and urging, "Voter beware."

4. Former Colorado state House speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) is up with his first TV ad of a primary with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), a 30-second spot that hits on Romanoff's theme of not accepting special-interest money.

"The special interests in Washington have more power than the people," Romanoff says in the ad. "And that's not just wrong. It's corrupt."

The ad makes no mention of Bennet, who has been leading Romanoff in the polls and had a seven-to-one advantage in cash on hand as of late March. A late June Survey USA poll showed Bennet leading Romanoff 53 percent to 36 percent among Democratic primary voters.

Romanoff's underdog bid was buoyed late last month when he was backed by Bill Clinton -- an endorsement that's sure to find its way into Romanoff's future campaign ads. But the real question about whether the candidate can surge in the race will be answered when the second-quarter fundraising reports come in this month.

Meanwhile, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) announced that she raised more than $900,000 in the second quarter, about $100,000 more than her first-quarter haul of $815,000. Norton's rival for the GOP nod, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, has not released his fundraising numbers but his campaign promised that his cash on hand would exceed Norton's current $600,000.

Norton trailed Buck 53 percent to 37 percent in the Survey USA poll. Buck is hoping to get a further boost Thursday when Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) stumps for him at an afternoon event.

Mail-in ballots will be sent to voters the week of July 19; the primary is Aug. 10.

5. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) is set to announce another huge fundraising quarter for his Senate campaign today, with $2.65 million raised and $8.8 million on hand. He is likely to have a huge cash advantage on Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D), who faced an expensive primary.

In New Hampshire, former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) had her best quarter as a Senate candidate, raising $720,000.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) raised an additional $1 million for his Florida Senate campaign and had $4 million on hand.

The big-money House race of 2010 looks to be in Minnesota, where Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) and Democratic challenger state Sen. Tarryl Clark announced Wednesday that they raised a combined $2.6 million in the second quarter -- $1.7 million for the incumbent and $910,000 for Clark. Much of both figures can be chalked up to an April rally Bachmann held with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Each of the totals would be a solid haul for a major Senate race, and they only up the ante in what has become a major ideological battleground between the right and the left.

In other House fundraising totals released Wednesday, former Real World cast member Sean Duffy (R) continues to look like a strong candidate in the race for retiring Rep. David Obey's (D-Wis.) seat, but he has company now. Duffy raised a strong $470,000, while Democratic candidate state Sen. Julie Lassa raised $310,000 in just six weeks.

ddawd - bobby has posted his frustrations with the local Dem party before (south texas / lower rio grande valley, if I recall correctly); so when I started responding to him, I was doing so with the knowledge of that situation.

I'm pretty sympathetic to your point about voting a Dem ticket; while I don't consider myself a Dem and will probably vote IP in our Gov race, the Repubs are absolutely failing to offer a compelling alternative governing philosophy.

DDwad, it is hard to have a discussion when people like you just want to throw stones and ignore people's plain words.

MMtopNY and Bison - again thanks for extending the discussion -

I think I made it clear when I responded to Bison that I overstated my position - bu tthe government cannot just create jobs or everyone - it has to come from the people.

On teh small business issue for new business I have always felt that the government should allow for a period of time without taxes so long as the business is growing - this could help the young people of today to start businesses.

Starting a business is no easy task - it takes creativity and guts - but people are doing it - it is about like Sammie Davis Jr said in his book "Yes I can."

DDawd, when you make statements like people should vote straight democratic you show an extreme level of ignorance and bias.

The Democratic Party of south Texas is a criminal enterprise and everyone knows it - this does not mean I will ever vote Republican because I will not - but I like every other victim of the Demmocratic Party of Texas Plantation Politics will be damn before we vote for the very people who steal from us on a daily basis.

You might note DDawn - MMtopNy and Sbison added ideas to the discussion thereby allowing for an extension of the discussion with ideas - this is how adults converse - not with snot nose remarks which add nothing to the discussion .

Sorry for the late response I was at teh VA clinic undergoing more advance testing for a hormone imbalance

Meanwhile, 3:02 pm ET and the labeling of Sen. Diapers as a Democrat still has not been corrected in the 2nd graf of the blog, even after numerous commentors pointed out the Fox-like error. Ever notice when the media labels a Republican as a Democrat, btw, it's never a respected guy like Lugar, it's a sleaze like Vitter.

@DDAWD: that would be wpni-comments@washingtonpost.com. Go ahead and write but I doubt it will do much good. We're to believe that moderating this place is an Aegean stables labor but of course that's BS.

They could keep the meth addict off here if they wanted to, five minutes a day max, it takes a lot less time to block a moniker than it takes to register, and a simple SQL query could delete all the posts under that moniker. The will is clearly lacking.

Remember when one of zouk's monikers gets banned? All the others are left alone. Yeah, as if there's any great mystery there, the only times he takes pains to hide his multiple identity is the stealth monikers like doof and Brigade.

The blog is clogged with this junk because Cillizza wants it to be. Cillizza is a putz.

If he agrees that there is a need for stimulus, then I have no clue what this means. If by creating jobs, he means to hire 2 million census workers in perpetuity, then yeah, I agree, but it's also a huge straw man.

OBAMA IS IMPOSING SECRET PROVISIONS IN THE FINANCIAL REGULATION BILL - OBAMA IS SECRETING IMPOSING QUOTAS ON THE FINANCIAL INDUSTRY.

RealClear is reporting:

Section 342, which declares that race and gender employment ratios, if not quotas, must be observed by private financial institutions that do business with the government. In a major power grab, the new law inserts race and gender quotas into America's financial industry.

In addition to this bill's well-publicized plans to establish over a dozen new financial regulatory offices, Section 342 sets up at least 20 Offices of Minority and Women Inclusion. This has had no coverage by the news media and has large implications.

___________________________________

Merit is out the window - OBAMA WANTS THE NATION'S ECONOMY TO BE RUN BY QUOTAS

AND OBAMA IS SETTING UP 20 OFFICES WHICH WILL ENFORCE OBAMA'S QUOTA SYSTEM ON AMERICAN BUSINESSES.

37th throws crap on the walls and some of it stuck! Yes, my reading comprehension sucks on the actual blog posts which I tend to skim and yes, Vitter is safe. Congratulations. I think you should get a lifetime achievement award since that last post was invariably the achievement of your lifetime.

MMeyers, thanks. I see.

bsimon, I think there's a problem when you get into an either/or discussion. Obviously small businesses will be the backbone of the economy. But unemployment is at 9.5% I hope you're not insinuating that kids just started getting REALLY lazy at the end of 2008. (I know you're not)

The Fed. government needs to act countercyclical to the private economy. When things are going well, Fed needs to raise taxes, reduce spending, and increase interest rates in order to cut the deficit and curb inflation. Obviously it would be great if we could use deficits to boost growth constitutively, but we can't, so we basically save for rainy days. And what we are going through is the Hurricane Katrina of economic rainy days. Now is absolutely NOT the time for the fed to start tightening its belt with state budgets contracting and private businesses hiring at a minuscule rate.

But this goes back to BobbyWC saying that government should play no role. Of course it should. When the private sector can't sustain job growth, FedGov needs to give it a good stimulus.

But the problem is that there are people, who for whatever reason, think that the FedGov shouldn't be playing a role. But it's these false premises that lead to such moronic conclusions. Kids didn't just start becoming uncreative all of a sudden. Maybe you think most college grads are shiftless and lazy, but you certainly can't claim that there was some massive increase in shiftlessness and laziness that started two years ago.

1. Ceflynline and Fairlinton: Thanks for your thoughtfulness and patience. I believe that the comments section will get better sooner rather than later so hopefully it will be rewarded.

2. 37th/Heatwave has been banned AGAIN. Not sure what else I can do other than keep banning him. And he will continue to return under other names.

3. ChrisFox/Noa: The comparison between you and 37th is based on your desire to return repeatedly under other names despite being banned. I continue to be baffled as to why you spend so much time getting back to a blog you disdain so much but that's another conversation.

4. To everyone else: Commenting on blogs remains very much a work in progress. The Post's goal is to allow as free a discussion as possible without permitting personal attacks and other online savagery. It seems a pretty easy goal to meet. Treat people online like you would offline.

ddawd writes
"If young people don't have the money to start a business and people around the young people don't have the money to spend on that business, it will take some unprecedented level of "creativity" to be successful."

Some kids spend their days playing video games, and some kids knock on neighbors' doors with the lawnmower in tow. I met some recent college grads a couple weeks ago that were biking across the country, promoting a 'sustainable living' lifestyle. While I think it was primarily directed at scoring food, beer & places to sleep along the way, it could also turn into something that generates income. Yesterday the local paper had an article on a guy who turned learning how to do his own home maintenance into a career - how-to websites & books (a modern 'newhart'). Some other people here & elsewhere are turning to urban agriculture - small scale farming on vacant lots. Maybe that can be a viable business, maybe not. It sounds to me like Bobby sees the young people in his area sitting around, wondering why nobody's creating a job for them. Who's responsibility is that?

Like I said before, there is room for government policy to facilitate job creation, and that's a good debate to have. But the best job creating sector of our economy is small business - which means the individuals that take a risk & see opportunity where others see obstacles.

1. Ceflynline and Fairlinton: Thanks for your thoughtfulness and patience. I believe that the comments section will get better sooner rather than later so hopefully it will be rewarded.

2. 37th/Heatwave has been banned AGAIN. Not sure what else I can do other than keep banning him. And he will continue to return under other names.

3. ChrisFox/Noa: The comparison between you and 37th is based on your desire to return repeatedly under other names despite being banned. I continue to be baffled as to why you spend so much time getting back to a blog you disdain so much but that's another conversation.

4. To everyone else: Commenting on blogs remains very much a work in progress. The Post's goal is to allow as free a discussion as possible without permitting personal attacks and other online savagery. It seems a pretty easy goal to meet. Treat people online like you would offline.

bsimon, how can you agree with that? If young people don't have the money to start a business and people around the young people don't have the money to spend on that business, it will take some unprecedented level of "creativity" to be successful.

These philosophical discussions on the government's "role" are just ridiculous. And I think BobbyWC's post illustrates why. When you are at the starting point that government should do absolutely nothing to spur job creation, you are left with ridiculous conclusions that young people aren't being "creative" enough.

"This myth it is for the government to create jobs, must end. People create jobs. If the youth of this country can come to understand this, along with a dismal job market maybe just maybe they will learn to be creative and make their own future, rather than wait for the government to make a job for them.

November is any one's guess - it is so messed up

Posted by: bobbywc "

How in the world, in this internet age, with so much information at our fingertips do we have people posting this complete garbage?

Yeah, the problem with the economy is that young people just don't know how to be creative. Good one, dude.

November is messed up, but only because we have such a preponderance of people who have no idea what's going on.

There's absolutely no question that people should vote straight ticket Democrat. Honestly, in this cycle, if William Jefferson were on the ballot, I'd be voting for him if the Republican were someone other than Cao. It's borderline criminal for Republicans to carry on with the obstructionism during the perilous situation that our country is in.

Thank you for having an actual discussion on the issues. bobbywc, I agree that the younger generation needs to take a leading role in job creation, but there is a systemic problem when so many come out of college saddled with debt well beyond any hope of repayment without getting into the workforce right away rather than being entrepreneurs who have the luxury of time to grow a business slowly. There must be a better way to pay for education, or a way to slow the hyper-inflation of college costs. I don't have an answer for that problem. Lower taxes are not the answer, nor is more government spending to create a few direct jobs and a few more indirectly, lower barriers to being an entrepreneur are and the debt load placed on college grads is as good a place to start as any.

One might argue that government action that facilitates economic activity is needed. It is known that large companies are sitting on their very large assets. You can also remove the 't' from that word. There is going to be no top down recovery. Bottoms up it is.

A recent Post article on "small ball" jobs creation illustrates this. HCR will have relatively little effect on corporate hiring as they already provide benefits. The possible loss of health insurance is a demotivating factor to strike out on one's own. No shame in failure, but risk your family's health?

I know someone who recently quit her job to strike out on her own as a freelancer. The guaranteed availability of insurance through pools was a factor in that decision. Economic activity is being created in ways that don't show up with IBM being given $100M by Tennessee to open a new plant.

bobbywc writes
"If the younger generation can look to themselves as the source for their jobs I think this country will sooner than later go back into a major growth period - but waiting on the government will mean no future"

I agree. When it comes to a policy discussion, my question is what can the gov't do to nudge people in the direction of taking that risk & making their own job rather than waiting for someone else to do it? I've seen proposals for the gov't to start becoming the small business lender of last resort - that banks & investors are currently reluctant to take a risk on small business startups, so gov't should step in & make such funding available. That seems to makes sense, as it addresses the liquidity problem & keeps cash flowing through the economy. Investors have driven treasuries to extremely low yields, meaning they feel safer with the gov't holding their money than putting it in equities or other investments. Gov't should be investing that money in the real job creators in our economy: small businesses.

bsimon1, thanks for extending the discussion on my post - I think this is when blogging works best.

You are correct the government through projects do create some jobs - but my point it the people cannot wait for the government to create jobs - the younger generation in particular need to accept things are different and need to look to their own creativity if they want good jobs.

If the younger generation can look to themselves as the source for their jobs I think this country will sooner than later go back into a major growth period - but waiting on the government will mean no future

And I agree a tax cut now will do nothing for job creation - it is not 1961 when people were not buried in debt. Any tax cut money will only go to pay down debt - not consumption - this is why a tax cut will do nothing for jobs and in the end will only increase the national debt.

bobbywc writes
"This myth it is for the government to create jobs, must end. People create jobs. If the youth of this country can come to understand this, along with a dismal job market maybe just maybe they will learn to be creative and make their own future, rather than wait for the government to make a job for them."

That criticism ignores the nuance that government policy has a significant impact on job creation. There's an extensive, multi-year freeway rebuilding project a few miles from my house that is a significant source of jobs. The private sector isn't spending that money, government is: the gov't has hired private sector construction firms that are hiring engineers, heavy equipment operators, etc. Less directly, some people believe government can influence job creation by cutting taxes; I think that's more of a myth than the one bobby cites, particularly since current tax rates are lower than they've been in decades, while unemployment is higher than its been in decades. Strange, that.

• When will naive Obama officials wake up and smell the Homeland-led multi-agency fusion center police state that's entraining them?

Your comment to a political blog may look like it's been posted for all to see -- but if you've been extrajudicially and unjustly "targeted" by a multi-agency Homeland-run fusion center censorship regime, your posting could be re-directed and "black-holed" by way of a "man in the middle" cyber- attack.

Here's a veteran journalist's proof that the U.S. government imposes ideologically-driven censorship on "targeted" Americans -- and why naive officials of the Obama administration apparently have no clue about the wholesale constitutional and human rights violations that continue on their watch:

"After she won the Republican primary a month ago, Angle's campaign took down most of its website, and later replaced it with a relaunched version that edited her more conservative positions. But the Reid campaign saved the old version, and put up a website called "The Real Sharron Angle," reproducing the old content. Then last Friday, the Angle campaign sent them a cease-and-desist letter, alleging violation of copyrights for Reid having reposted Angle's old campaign literature. In response, the Reid campaign briefly took down the site -- then made some slight modifications, such as removing some e-mail sign-up boxes that had been left intact, and put it right back up again.

As Greg points out: "However she decides to pursue this, the upshot is that it could end up drawing even more media attention to her original Web site than it otherwise might have received. It's a curious strategy."

With the Vitter and Angle stories running side-by-side today, they bring up a question that has to be answered. Paul and Kirk went into hiding--in fact, it seems, all Republican candidates outside South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama seem to be hiding. Rubio has been quiet. Perry wants no debates. The theme seems to be that most Republican candidates want to win incognito. It's not a party of NO--it's a party of nothing."

Actually, that is just among the super-wealthy in NY, which is not most people, even in Manhattan.

"Rather, it's that Saujani is a Wall Street veteran. She has worked at three hedge funds. She speaks the arcane language of derivatives and basis points and mortgage-backed securities. Saujani has positioned herself as the anti-Maloney, the only candidate who understands how stressful and difficult the past few years have been for some of the wealthiest people in America. "

You really can't imagine how much of a joke this candidate is to most NYers. Oh, the poor little super rich people! How they are suffering! isn't really, you know, resonating with most of us.

I think November is any one's guess. The issues are so muddied up it has become impossible for people to know what to do.

I know in South Texas people are already making it clear they will not be voting for anyone is November. The Dems have written us off and the Repubs are all smiles.

The people want honesty - neither major party seems to understand this. The Repubs know we will never deport 15 million people because it will kill the US economy - as it is we do not have enough consumption - but they lie to get the ignorant to vote for them.

The Dems continue telling people the government is the answer - it is not. Locally the other night at the city commission meeting a man complained he was still waiting for the city to come and spray his work and home for mosquitos. How pathetic, but he thinks this way because this is how the Dems have educated him to think.

This myth it is for the government to create jobs, must end. People create jobs. If the youth of this country can come to understand this, along with a dismal job market maybe just maybe they will learn to be creative and make their own future, rather than wait for the government to make a job for them.

'Vitter took a leave of absence to "hunker down", and when he returned to the Senate, was applauded by his Republican Senators!'

For wearing diapers?

'Brent Furer pled guilty in 2008 to attacking his girlfriend with a knife, but was nonetheless retained in Vitter's DC legislative office in the role of legislative assistant for women's issues until the details of Furer's crime were publicized in late June. He subsequently resigned. In Louisiana today, Vitter categorically denied that Furer worked on women's issues in any way. But numerous records and published accounts prove otherwise.

Several DC-based information services publish detailed listings of staff assignments and contact information for Capitol Hill offices. And multiple directories, both online and in hard copy, name Furer as Vitter's legislative assistant on women's issues. '

Well, domestic abuse and prostitution are 'women's issues' right? And Vitter and his aide are knowledgeable in these areas, so there you go...

"hunker down and wait for it to pass" seems to be the GOP way to handle scandals!

Larry Craig (wide stance in men's room stall) did not resign but waited for his term to end. Cheater Senator John Ensign is still in Congress. Vitter, the diaper fetish Senator, hunkered down, wife still beside him, after being caught in the Washington Madam's prostitution sting. His wife even said on camera that "she was proud to be Mrs. David Vitter"!

Vitter took a leave of absence to "hunker down", and when he returned to the Senate, was applauded by his Republican Senators!

"Despite Vitter's assertion, Furer was listed as a legislative aide for women's issues by a directory of congressional staffers and in other places as well. Vitter's campaign didn't respond Wednesday to a request for comment about the discrepancy."