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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C. S. Lewis

New crop corn and beans are above the YTD average. The January average was 5.86 and 12.96. Our crystal ball is underwater but making some catchup sales or protecting downside above the average should make some sense. ﻿Beating the Average

What we should grasp, however, from the lessons of European history is that, first, there is nothing necessarily benevolent about programmes of European integration; second, the desire to achieve grand utopian plans often poses a grave threat to freedom; and third, European unity has been tried before, and the outcome was far from happy.

~ Margaret Thatcher, Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World (2002)

Wednesday 5-29-13

Nice rally today as the monsoon continues. Cargil moved there bid back to the August futures t today. The rally brings us back above average in Dec corn and near average prices for Nov soybeans. It is time to pay attention on new crop sales. It is a critical time of year. You have to sell into fear as difficult as it is.

Forcast turning wetter at Midday

THE MIDDAYS CAME OUT WETTER STILL IN THE 1-5 DAY FORECAST, AS I MENTIONED AND THE 11-15 DAY IS WETTER THAN RECENT RUNS, WHICH GAVE US A FUNDMENTAL RESASON TO RALLY CZ BACK OVER 5.60

THE NEW CROP CORN RALLY HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT WHEAT, WHICH IS STILL UP 7-9 CENTS IN CHICAGO, AS WE STILL ARE WANTING FOR SOME FINISHING RAINS IN THE SW PLAINS, BUT CAN’T SEEM TO GET ANYTHING THAT COULD HELP IN THE DRIEST SPOTS

THE BEAN COMPLEX IS BOUCING DUE TO THE RALLY IN NEW CROP CORN OR THE GRAINS IN GENERAL, BUT ONE HAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE MORE WE TALK OR FACTOR IN LESS CORN ACRES, WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE BULK OF THAT ACREAGE GO TO BEANS AND SO BEANS ARE UNCHANGED IN NEW CROP AND DOWN 5-6 CENTS IN JULY

ROGERS ROLL STARTS TOMORROW AND WEEKLY EXPORT SALES ARE DELAYED DUE TO THE HOLIDAY UNTIL FRIDAY

THE QUESTION IN THESE MARKETS IN MY MIND, IS WHAT OLD CROP VALUES WILL DO, GIVEN THAT WE START THE ROGERS ROLL ON THURSDAY AND IT LASTS UNTIL MONDAY, WHILE GOLDMAN STARTS ABOUT JUNE 7TH AND LASTS THROUGH JUNE 13TH AND WE’LL BE SEEING PLANTY OF SPREADING OUT OF OC LONGS INTO NC POSITIONS, MOSTLY INTO SEPT AND NOV FOR BEANS AND SEPT AND DEC FOR CORN

I THINK THE ONLY SAFE CONCLUSION TO MAKE IN THESE MARKETS OVERALL IS THAT NEW CROP HAS TWO REASONS, WEATHER AND SPREADING, TO GAIN BOTH FLAT PRICE AND ON A SPREAD BASIS TO NEARBY JULY

GIVEN THAT SCENARIO, YOU LOOK TO BUY NEW CROP ON BREAKS AND SELL OLD CROP ON RALLIES

STILL THINK THE RAINS WILL BE OF A MUCH GREATER LONG TERM BENEFIT, BUT WE ARE GOING TO LOSE ABOUT 2 MLN ACRES OF CORN WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE AND BEANS WILL GET IN LATER THAN DESIRED, BUT MIGHT GET AS MUCH A 2 MLN MORE ACRES DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINS Bob RJO

Talk of China canceling 3 bean cargos out of Brazil pressuring July beans Probably did more than that.

Ultimately this is not an "export thing" ...... it will be a "domestic crush" thing.

D Jackson

Thursday 5-23-13

Bids for soybeans are in a bit of flux tonight as Cargil went to the Nov. It was one of the most unusual days most of us have seen in the soybean market. I was out of town this afternoon so running late this evening. FYI many quote systems have had problems the last couple of days also. This is not a tradable market for anyone involved. And it will probably get worse. Dean

Soybeans are now bid off of the August (Q) Cedar made the move this am and elevators will follow shortly. The move took about 25 cents off the nearby basis. Movement while not heavy has picked up especially for the June slot. Bean supply will be tight but not today. Traer has recieved 2.5 inches of rain the last few days.

From Cargil - Cedar Rapids

Dear Valued Customer,

We will begin probing back at CR East starting Wed, May 22nd. We are extending unloading hours this week Wed (5/22nd) – Friday (5/24th) to 7a-8p.

Sarah

Note: Cargil Soybean Plants and elevators are now bidding vs the August. They have taken approx 25 cents off the basis.

LONG LIQUIDATION IN THE THINLY TRADED SEPT DELIVERY, AS SEPT BEANS ARE DOWN 25+ CENTS, SEPT MEAL IS DOWN $10+ AND SEPT CORN IS DOWN 12+ CENTS, WITH CU/CZ TARDING BELOW 15 CENTS NOW, AS CASH CORN BIDS ARE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME EARLY CUTTING OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE CORN BEING DRIED DOWN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INVERSE, WHILE WE HEAR OF RECORD OR WELL ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELDS IN LOUISIANA, MISSOURI AND A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN REGIONS

THE RECENT WARMUP MAY BE HURTING IOWA AND SOME OTHER SPOTS WHEN IT COMES TO BEANS, BUT IT’S SPEEDING MATURITY, DRYING CROPS AND ALLOWING FOR SOME EARLIER THAN EXPECTED HARVEST ALSO, AT LEAST IN CORN

NEARBY WEAKNESS IS WEIGHING ON NEW CROP MONTHS, WITH SX DOWN 4-6 CENTS, SMZ IS DOWN $2 AND CZ IS DOWN 2-3 CENTS, AFTRE TRADING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS AT ONE JUNCTURE

SEPT DELIVERY, AS SEPT BEANS ARE DOWN 25+ CENTS, SEPT MEAL IS DOWN $10+ AND SEPT CORN IS DOWN 12+ CENTS, WITH CU/CZ TARDING BELOW 15 CENTS NOW, AS CASH CORN BIDS ARE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME EARLY CUTTING OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE CORN BEING DRIED DOWN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INVERSE, WHILE WE HEAR OF RECORD OR WELL ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELDS IN LOUISIANA, MISSOURI AND A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN REGIONS

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