Virginia attorney general: ‘Anyone’s race’

The Virginia attorney general race remained a nail-biter heading into the weekend, as a rapt band of election officials and observers pored over updates to Election Day numbers.

Local authorities have until Nov. 12 to correct, complete and turn in their tallies to the state in the contest between state Sens. Mark Obenshain (R) and Mark Herring (D), which was too close to call on Tuesday as Democrats won the other two statewide offices on the ballot.

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Obenshain has held a lead, but it likely narrowed Friday after developments in blue-leaning Fairfax County, where Herring appeared to net about 1,100 votes after previously uncounted ballots were reviewed, according to observers. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said his political office had noticed that the absentee ballot return rate in the part of the county covered by the 8th Congressional District seemed too low, helping prompt a review.

“This could prove decisive,” said Connolly, who represents the neighboring 11th District and used to be chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.

But observers such as Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political report estimated that the updated, still-unofficial count — coupled with Obenshain’s boost from newly counted votes in Bedford County — left the Republican with a lead of around 130 votes. Wasserman said that incremental changes and provisional ballot-counting expected over the weekend make this “anyone’s race.”

The Fairfax County elections board said it would discuss its probe of 8th District results at a public meeting Saturday at 10 a.m.

A clearer statewide picture is likely to emerge after Nov. 12, when the state board of elections will begin reviewing local totals. “Once we pass that Wednesday deadline, we enter a phase where significant changes to the margin between the candidates are unlikely,” Wasserman said.

Then the board has until Nov. 25 to certify the results. At that point, the loser may request a recount if the margin is within 1 percent. In 2005, Republican and now-Gov. Bob McDonnell picked up 37 votes in a recount for attorney general over Democrat Creigh Deeds, winning the election by 360 votes.

Both candidates’ camps have said they believe they’ll pull ahead, deferring the question of whether they are certain to ask for a recount if they’re on the losing end come Nov. 25.

McDonnell and current Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R), who lost his race for governor to Democrat Terry McAuliffe on Tuesday, have sent out fundraising appeals for Obenshain. (Candidates who request recounts have to cover the costs in some cases.) Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) sent an appeal for Herring on Friday.

Meanwhile, a small group of observers, including Wasserman, took to Twitter this week to discuss incremental changes to the candidates’ totals. They didn’t hesitate to inject a little fun into the process, with nicknames emerging for local developments such as the “7 Corners Surprise” and the “Bedford Blast.”

An Obenshain victory would continue the GOP’s 19-year streak holding the office. A Herring victory would see Democrats holding all five statewide offices — including two Senate seats — for the first time since 1969.