A liberal Florida Democrat pulled off an upset victory in the state's primary for governor while President Trump's favored candidate cruised to victory for the GOP. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum will face congressman Ron DeSantis in November. (Aug. 29)
AP

WASHINGTON – Florida's Senate race between GOP Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson was shaping up to be an expensive and high-profile jaunt to the political center between two candidates known more for their caution than their audacity. In other words, consequential but bland.

Then Tuesday's gubernatorial primary happened.

Now a contest that will help decide who controls the Senate next year also will be buffeted by the gale-force winds of national politics over the next nine weeks because partisan flamethrowers – GOP Congressman Rep. Ron DeSantis and Tallahassee Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum – will be atop Florida's ballot.

The nomination of DeSantis, an acolyte of President Donald Trump who embraces his Make-America-Great-Again program, and Gillum, a black Democrat backed by liberal icon Bernie Sanders, sets up Florida not only as a laboratory for the 2020 presidential race but also reshapes the contours of the Senate race.

Suddenly, more Florida voters who identify with the hardened wings of their parties are likelier to show up at the polls in November while moderates may sit this one out, analysts say.

At the same time, Trump and Sanders are expected to spend more time in Florida on behalf of the gubernatorial nominees, helping magnify the divisions of a Senate race that was anticipated to be more about each candidate's record, said Susan MacManus, a longtime political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa before retiring in the spring.

"It makes (the Florida campaign) a much more nationalized race than it ever has been," she said. " A lot people see this as just as a mock 2020 election, the governor's race and the Senate race. You've got such a divide in the party and the type of candidates running."

And that's likely to make both Scott and Nelson squirm a bit.

Nelson has long considered himself a centrist. So the parade of national liberals expected to stump for Gillum, including Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., – who may also use the visit to audition for the 2020 presidential nomination – could repel some moderates now on the fence about Nelson.

Scott, meanwhile, has tried to downplay his close bond with Trump in a bid to woo the independents he'll need for victory. But that will be tougher if the president, whose endorsement propelled DeSantis to victory Tuesday, is a regular on the campaign trail in the Sunshine State this fall.

The Senate at stake

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While it might play the undercard to the gubernatorial campaign, the matchup between Scott and Nelson will have a more immediate impact on whether Trump can keep pushing his agenda and his judicial and executive nominees through Congress.

Republicans control 51 of the chamber's 100 seats so Democrats need a net gain of two seats to recapture the chamber. Holding Nelson's seat is considered essential to that aim.

The party that wins most of these 10 contests is likely to capture the Senate.

Most polls show the Florida race a toss-up even as some Democrats privately worry that Nelson, heavily outspent so far by an incumbent governor who's been barnstorming across the state, has not been as active or aggressive as he needs to be.

"Democrats are kind of happy frankly," said Jennifer Duffy, Cook's expert on Senate races. "Given what's been thrown at (Nelson), the race is essentially tied."

Who benefits is 'anybody's guess'

Nelson may not want to constantly answer for Gillum's hard-line positions, such as the support for Medicare for all, the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the his repeated calls for Trump's impeachment.

But Gillum's presence on the ballot, also could prove a boost to Nelson by energizing millennials, minorities, and other progressive voters who don't normally turnout in droves during midterms and are not viewed as fans of Nelson's low-key style.

DeSantis at the top of the ticket, in turn, could energize Trump voters.

Analysts say Scott has already cornered much of that market. But the more that conservative votes hear about Gillum's views, the more they may be energized to show up at the polls to back both DeSantis and Scott.

Ultimately, the Senate election could depend on which side benefits most from a gubernatorial race that's expected to turn off voters in the center but mobilize those at both ends of the spectrum.

How Floridians who are drawn to the polls by the governor's race vote in the Senate race "is anybody's guess," said MacManus, the retired political scientist. "There's just a lot of unanswered questions at this point."

The Trump factor

Even before Scott announced in April that he would challenge Nelson, the election flash points in the Senate race had begun to crystallize: the impact of back-to-back hurricanes Irma and Maria last September, the shooting massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High in Parkland, Fl., and the impact of Trump in the White House.

Lately, the race has turned on who's to blame for devastating algae blooms, claims over potential election hacking by Russia – and the impact of Trump in the White House.

Trump poses a problem for Scott, who must woo moderates and disaffected Republicans.

US President Donald Trump (L), First Lady Melania Trump (2nd L) listen to Florida Governor Rick Scott as he speaks during a briefing on Hurricane Irma relief efforts at Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers, Florida, last year.(Photo11: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, AFP/Getty Images)

Polls have shown the president's approval ratings in Florida rising in recent months but the popularity of his brand varies greatly around the state, Duffy said.

"I would not want (the president) there a lot or at all. And if I couldn't stop him, I would keep him in the Panhandle," she said referring to Trump's appeal in the conservative communities of northern Florida.

Late start for Nelson

This is Nelson's toughest election challenge since he lost the gubernatorial primary in 1990 to fellow Democrat Lawton Chiles. Nelson, 75, would go on to win five straight statewide elections, including the last three for senator.

Republicans have won 17 of the last 18 statewide elections (U.S. Senate, governor, cabinet office) held since 2002 where Nelson was not a candidate. Two of those were won by Scott, who captured the governor's mansion in 2010 and then was re-elected four years later.

And traditional Democratic constituencies, notably minorities and young voters, who show up big for presidential elections tend not to turn out in large numbers during midterm elections like this year's.

Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant based in Tallahassee, said he doesn't share the concerns among some Democratic activists that Nelson will have trouble catching up to Scott.

"Campaigns don't start until you're on TV," Schale said. "Bill Nelson can go to six media markets a day. He can have people making phone calls for him. He can put yard signs and bumper stickers up. It's never going to feel like his campaign is anywhere near as robust as Rick Scott's because Scott's on TV and he's not. I suspect a lot of that chatter will change (as) Nelson goes up."

But that late start could be a problem for Nelson in a state where the prominence of overseas ballots, early voting and mail-in ballots means much of the action happens before Election Day, countered Ron Pierce, a Republican lobbyist based in Tampa.

"That’s why getting on TV early and getting the momentum early (matters)," he said.

Challenges for Scott

Aside from navigating Trump, Scott, 65, has his own obstacles – chiefly that the party controlling the White House traditionally does poorly during midterm elections.

In addition, Scott has never won 50 percent of the vote in his two races despite favorable political climates and heavily outspending his opponent each time.

Pierce isn't worried.

"He has demonstrated he can win competitive races against a well-funded Democrat," he said about Scott's gubernatorial campaigns. "He's following the exact same strategy he's followed on previous races. He was on TV early. He's going to continue to be on TV. He's going to have all the resources he needs until the end to make sure that he's competitive until Election Day."

And Scott has made a concerted effort to court Hispanics that seems to reaping dividends.

As of early August, Scott had run more than 1,700 Spanish-language spots in the state since April, more than a third of which have aired in the Orlando market. That strategy, as well as the governor's efforts welcoming Puerto Ricans looking to resettle in the Sunshine State in the wake of Hurricane Maria, appears to be paying off if a recent poll is any indication.

While roughly three of four Puerto Ricans in Florida have an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump, they also have a favorable view of Scott, according to the survey released June 30 by the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs at Florida International University.

The role of third-party groups

Independent groups collectively spent nearly $13 million on the Florida Senate race through Aug. 8, most of it to help Nelson, FEC records show.

Expect that number to grow exponentially, especially with a gubernatorial matchup expected to gin up national attention from advocacy groups on both sides, said MacManus.

"You're going to see more money flowing in from outside groups than we've ever seen," she said.

Those groups, notably the Senate Majority PAC, run by Democratic leaders in Washington, have helped keep Nelson competitive with Scott. But Pierce said they may abandon him for races in other parts of the country if Scott begins pulling away.

"Let's say we get to October and Nelson's down by five or six points, some of these third-party groups are going to have to start making decision: 'Look, Florida's a really, really expensive state. We want to protect Sen. Nelson but we're spending dollars in a state where we can have limited impact,'" he said.

Schale, the Democratic consultant, doesn't see either candidate pulling away even with the influence of such a polarizing gubernatorial contest.

"I think you've got two evenly matched people who have 100 percent name ID in an evenly matched state," he said. "It's just not going to get that far from the middle."