000
FXUS65 KLKN 020915
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL REGION.
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK THEN EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES
RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO TO WASHINGTON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS A WEAK VORTEX EMBEDDED IN THE
H5 FLOW...WHICH WILL ENABLE CONVECTION TO FLARE UP. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FOR ELKO AT 21Z IS 82F...WITH PWS CLIMBING ABOVE .75 OF
AN INCH. THE VORTEX IS MOVING AT A GLACIAL PACE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN EVENT WITH THIS MONSOON EPISODE. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S RUNS...THE NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH DEPICT MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IMPACTING THE LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
NAM BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING ABOUT...AND THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF ACTIVITY...ONE PUSHING UP THROUGH CENTRAL
NV...AND THE OTHER IMPACTING WESTERN NV. FOR THE POPS THIS PACKAGE
...USED AN ALL BLEND WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. AS TIME ELAPSES
THIS PERTURBATION WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...SHIFTING THE QPF
FOCUS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE WELL ON
LARGE PICTURE OF SOUTHWEST RIDGE FLATTENING AND DRIFTING EAST AS
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO COAST. THIS COMBO PRODUCED A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WITH SPOTTY MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. TOOK OUT ONE PERIOD OF SHOWERS ONLY AND LEFT ALL
POTENTIAL CONVECTION AS -TRW. AIRMASS DRIES AS WEEK PROGRESSES SO
POPS AND THUNDER COVERAGE LOWER EACH PERIOD UNTIL LATE WHEN MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AGAIN AND SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE AGAIN. WARMING
TREND WILL BE GENERAL AFTER A SLIGHT COOLING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION. IT IS THE DOG DAYS...AFTER ALL.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL START A FEW VCSH
AROUND KTPH AND KELY. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECTING VCTS AT ALL SITES
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. KWMC HAS A FEW ODD WIND SHIFTS LIKELY
RELATED TO LOCAL VIRGA WHICH ARE STIRRING UP DUST (HZ) AND SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO LOWER VISBY THIS MORNING. AS THE AFTERNOON
WARMS...THIS SHOULD IMPROVE. STORMS/SHOWERS PERSIST INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WANING. A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE NAM PLACES THE BEST LI`S SQUARELY OVER 454
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL PATTERN...THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS TO BE TEMPERED WITH THE LACK OF AGREEMENT
IN THE SMALL DETAILS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A CONVECTIVE PATTERN
TODAY...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/98/98/97