Box Office: How 'Avengers: Endgame' Can Top 'Force Awakens' And 'Avatar'

There is little sense in making a list of the various records that Avengers: Endgame shattered over the last three days of domestic (and five days of international) play because the short answer is “all of them.” With (as of this writing) $356 million domestic and $1.222 billion worldwide, the fourth Avengers movie demolished every conceivable box office record that it had a chance to beat.

Fine, so “biggest August opening” and “biggest NC-17 debut” weren’t in play, but you get the idea. The film has a legitimate shot at doing the seemingly unthinkable—namely, displacing Star Wars: The Force Awakens at the top of the domestic charts and topping Avatar in the global box office rankings.

“Possible” is not the same as “likely,” so just how likely is it that either of those things actually happens? Well …

As I noted heading into the weekend, the worldwide magic number was $1.132 billion worldwide. If Avengers: Endgame opened with at least $1.132 billion worldwide over its first five days and then proved to be at least as leggy as Avengers: Infinity War (2.564x, or $2.058 billion worldwide from a combined $831 million global launch, including China), it would pass the unadjusted $2.788 billion cume of James Cameron’s 3-D epic. Endgameearned $1.222 billion this weekend, give or take the final figures, so now it has to secure an entirely plausible 2.28x multiplier around the world.

Shockingly enough, at this juncture, it appears more likely that Avatar’s record will fall as opposed to Force Awakens’ milestone.

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is likely to be a global monster when it opens on May 10 (one weekend earlier than Deadpool 2 last year). It is just as likely that Pikachu kicks concurrent box office butt alongside Avengers: Endgame (like Jumanji 2 alongside The Last Jedi) as it is that Pikachu takes Iron Man down a peg. While John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum may break out at least on the scale of John Wick: Chapter 2, we’re talking about a movie that earned $92 million domestic and $171 million worldwide. Yes, the R-rated Keanu Reeves actioner may take away some action junkies from Avengers: Endgame, but at best we’re probably looking at $100 million domestic and $200 million worldwide.

'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'

Walt Disney and Lucasfilm

Aladdin is one of the most prominent question marks of the summer. The Guy Ritchie-directed adaptation of the blockbuster 1992 toon could play like Solo: A Star Wars Story (an okay domestic reception yet mostly ignored overseas), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (smaller-than-hoped in North America but a robust overseas run) or an extreme result (be it “yay” or “nay”) here and abroad. Will Smith alone may help it outside North America (Suicide Squad earned $745 million without China) while domestic nostalgia may power it over here. Point being, if Aladdin soars, we still don’t know if that hurts Avengers: Endgame. Last summer, studios opening movies back-to-back-to-back actually helped them all.

Disney saw Avengers: Infinity War, Incredibles 2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp all earn best-case-scenario box office last summer. Ditto Warner Bros.’ one-two punch of The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. After Aladdin, it’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Ma and Rocketman, all three of which could take a bite out of Endgame. But if Avengers 4 has already legged it out over the last month, that will hardly matter, and the early June flicks (Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix and Men in Black International) can do what they will.

Alongside the question of demographic competition, the other big debate is about just how leggy a movie that has already scored $1.2 billion can really be.

The “bad” news is that Avengers: Endgame is almost sure to be less leggy than Avengers: Infinity War, with or without the early summer competition. That film earned $679 million domestic from a $257.7 million opening weekend. And, by default, it was the most frontloaded $200 million-plus opener of all time.

The caveat is that the few films that opened above $200 million tended to stick around since they tended to be well liked and well received on a global scale. Barring a fluke, we’re not dealing with Twilight Saga legs here. That said, to top Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $936.662 million domestic gross, Endgame will have to earn a 2.61x weekend-to-final multiplier. Is this possible?

'Avatar'

20th Century Fox

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 earned $389 million from a $145 million launch two summers ago. But Guardians 2 was the leggiest MCU summer kick-off flick since the first The Avengers ($623 million from a $207.7 million debut) in 2012. And like most early summer movies, Endgame may find itself less leggy than its mid-summer peers specifically because it won’t have “school’s out” weekdays to boost those daily numbers. We cannot overestimate how big of an advantage Force Awakens had via its record-breaking debut followed immediately by two weeks of “kids are out of school and adults are off work” weekdays. Even Aquaman legged it out to $335 million domestic from a $72 million launch last Christmas.

The key to The Avengers’ success seven summers ago was that it earned (in terms of legs and day-to-day holds) weekday grosses worthy of mid-June despite opening in early May. If Avengers: Endgame can pull that off, then Force Awakens’ record will fall, and it will have a shot at being the first $950 million-plus (or, yes, $1 billion-plus) domestic grosser (without accounting for inflation, of course). Even legs like Infinity War gets Endgame to “just” $922 million domestic. If it gets that close, I’d expect a re-release down the line.

Avengers: Endgame topping Force Awakens in North America is a longer shot specifically because the competition may be more pointed and because it has to be leggier than its predecessor.

At this juncture, it is more likely that Avengers: Endgame tops Avatar worldwide, precisely because the likes of John Wick: Chapter 3 (and Ma) won’t be as big of a deal internationally and because it doesn’t need to be quite as leggy to hit this specific milestone. Just going by overseas numbers, Avengers: Infinity War earned $1.3695 billion overseas from a combined $573.3 million international debut weekend (including China, which went two weeks later). A similar 2.388x overseas multiplier (with the caveat that various territories will be leggier than others) would give it a $2.051 billion overseas total, just above Avatar’s $2.027 billion foreign cume. Inflation, exchange rates and a China boost play a role, but I digress.

If Avengers: Endgame is as leggy overseas as its predecessor, then it can afford to be more frontloaded in North America. A 2.39x multiplier overseas and a 2.39x multiplier in North America would give it $2.053 billion abroad, $836.5 million domestic and a new record of $2.889 billion worldwide. At least for the next two weeks, the only issue for Avengers: Endgame is its 181-minute running time (which precludes most “after school” screenings) and that pesky “kids are still in school” thing. I expect smaller weekdays than Force Awakens for the immediate future, so we’ll see if it can make up for it over the weekends and for how long it can maintain its “fastest-grossing movie ever” status.

Obviously, if it grosses closer to $40 million domestic than $30 million domestic on Monday (today), that’s a sign of things to come. The movie has mostly positive reviews, an A+ Cinemascore and a clear status as the event movie of the moment. It’s also lighter and less violent than Infinity War, which is bad news for Detective Pikachu but good news for adult movies like Rocketman. Adults can take their kids to Avengers 4 and use that date night/babysitter money on John Wick 3. Endgameoutgrossing The Force Awakens in North America is still a longshot (Long Shot opens on Friday, and it’s pretty damn good), but honestly, Endgame topping Avatar is now virtually at 51/49.

Neither of these milestones has to fall for Avengers: Endgame to be a huge hit. Heck, it could be as frontloaded as Batman v Superman ($873 million from a $424 million global launch) and still earn $1.8 billion overseas and $2.5 billion worldwide. That alone would put it above Titanic in unadjusted overseas ($1.528 billion) and global grosses ($2.188 billion). It can be as frontloaded as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II in North America ($381 million/$169 million) and still earn $789 million and thus top Avatar domestically. At this point, Avengers: Endgame being second place in North America, overseas and worldwide is almost inevitable. And the odds are almost in its favor that it takes the gold.

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