Hurricane EUGENE

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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A TRMM OVERPASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL IN THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW IS
NOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION...BANDING HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED....EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS
HAVE WARMED A BIT. BASED UPON THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CONSENSUS
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 65 KT.
THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF EUGENE HAS MADE FINDING THE CENTER
EASIER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 300/11. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH
OF EUGENE OVER MEXICO AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS EUGENE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AFTER 48-72 HOURS...THE TRACK MAY BEND MORE TO THE RIGHT AS
THE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS.
EVEN THOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENTAL TREND. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE
RAPID GIVEN THE CLOSED RING SEEN IN EARLIER 37-GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 72 HOURS
...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND
MATCHES THE LGEM/FSSE OUTPUT THE BEST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 12.9N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.3N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.2N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 17.3N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 18.6N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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