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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Today finally brought much more comfortable conditions to the area, with high temperatures in the 70s with mostly sunny skies. The next few days will continue to be comfortable and dry, however the heat and humidity will return afterwards, and will be even worse than they were so far this year.

Hurricane Alex Summary:Alex is now making landfall in northern Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, just near southern Texas, after tracking through the Gulf of Mexico. Alex kept taking tracks different than the model forecasts, first moving due north, east of the models, then due west, south of the models, and now it's moving northwest, north of the models.

Alex is also a very large storm, which happened mainly due to its pressure deepening while it was a TS, but the winds were only slightly intensifying, leading to a tropical storm with a pressure equivalent to a category 1 hurricane, and Alex increasing in size. Its pressure and wind differences were the most impressive this morning, when it had 80 mph winds but a low pressure of 959 mb, equal to that of a Category 3 hurricane.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Tomorrow will continue with the comfortable conditions, and should be slightly colder than today. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 70s for the rest of the area. Once again, mostly sunny skies are expected, with no precipitation.

As with today, most of the region should also stay dry, with the only areas of rain being in northern New England, where scattered showers are possible, along with very chilly temperatures, in the 50s and 60s.

Friday And Saturday: Warming Up

The coldest temperatures of this time period should be on Friday morning, where low temperatures will be in the upper 40s inland, unusually chilly for this time of the year. The rest of the area will be in the mid to occasionally upper 50s, except for NYC which should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures will warm up into the lower to mid 70s inland, and the upper 70s elsewhere.

Saturday will already start the warm up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. Mostly sunny skies are expected on both days with no rain.

Major Heat Wave Potential Sunday-Wednesday

Sunday will mark the first day of what could be the biggest heat wave since June 2008. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. Monday and Tuesday should be the warmest days of this heat wave, and with 850 mb temperatures potentially between 20c and 24c, high temperatures are likely to rise into the upper 90s on both days away from the coast, with lower 100s also possible. With dew points in the 60s, the heat index may reach the 100s.

Wednesday should continue with the hot temperatures but should be slightly cooler than Tuesday, with high temperatures likely to be in the mid to upper 90s. By Thursday, a cold front may approach, bringing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, however this will bring little relief from the heat, as the very warm air mass persists.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

While today's temperatures were not much colder than yesterday, still in the 80s to lower 90s, humidity did decrease from yesterday, with the temperatures also cooling down starting tomorrow.

A dry pattern has now developed, which should make for a potentially very dry first half of July, with no rain expected in the 7-day range. This week's temperatures should be comfortable compared to the last week, with below average temperatures returning, but enjoy it while it lasts, as what could be the biggest heat wave since 2008 could take place next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:Tomorrow will fortunately be colder than today. With a trough moving in, high temperatures will only rise into the lower to mid 70s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and with a NW wind, Long Island and S CT will also rise into the upper 70s. This is nearly 10-15 degrees colder than today for some places.

The rest of the region should also be chilly tomorrow, with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s for the Mid Atlantic, and in the 60s to lower 70s for the Northeast. The only areas of rain tomorrow should be in the northern Northeast and New England, otherwise dry conditions are expected.

Thursday and Friday: Chilly, DryThe next three days are going to be very comfortable, and may be the coolest days for a while. Thursday morning should be quite chilly, with low temperatures in the 50s across most of the area, except for NYC, which should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A few upper 40s are also expected in the interior. High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area, Long Island and S CT. Friday should be slightly warmer than Thursday.

Heat Wave To Start On Sunday, July 4thSaturday will already bring back warmth and humidity, something not seen since today. High temperatures will warm up into the mid to upper 80s, with sunny skies expected. By Sunday, July 4th, however, the temperatures will only continue to warm up, reaching the lower to mid 90s for the immediate NYC area, along with increased humidity.

Sunday will be the start of what could potentially be the biggest heat wave since June 2008, when temperatures reached the lower 100s in parts of the area. With 850 mb temperatures in the range of 18c to 22c and no precipitation around, combined with sunny skies, high temperatures are easily going to reach the mid to upper 90s away from the coast, and if the models remain steady or trend slightly warmer, lower 100s may even be possible in parts of the immediate NYC area, however this is still uncertain, and the trends later this week will tell if this could happen or not. Along with humid conditions, the heat index could easily reach the 100s during this time period.

These very hot conditions should last until about Thursday, when slightly cooler temperatures are possible, but not significantly colder. Afterwards, there is still a lot of uncertainty, however if the ECMWF verifies, the heat returns yet again for Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned as more details on this potential heat wave become clearer through this week.

Monday, June 28, 2010

In addition, my 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonoutlook has been posted in the "Long Range Forecasts" section. I was unable to go into as much detail as I would've liked to, however I did briefly cover some important factors for my forecast.

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After a long stretch of hot and humid conditions, today finally brought rain to the area, which was useful as it has been dry lately, and fortunately the storms were not severe, due to the lack of supportive parameters. Today's rain event is going to mark a turning point in the pattern, as we are now entering a dry pattern where it may not rain for potentially 2 weeks.

For the short term, there is an area of collapsing storms in western Pennsylvania. While these storms should not have a significant impact on the area, isolated activity is possible for the northwestern parts of the area.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

While the heat is going to continue for tomorrow, humid conditions are finally not expected. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area and mid 80s inland, and with a WSW wind, Long Island and S CT are also going to warm up into the mid to upper 80s. The immediate coast should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, the dew points are going to drop into the 50s, which will prevent humid conditions tomorrow.

The area should also be dry tomorrow with partly sunny skies, however some rain and storms are expected in parts of the Northeast. While these storms should be mainly scattered and non-severe, Maine has a higher chance of seeing a steady period of rain tomorrow. Some storms are also possible in extreme southern VA due to the cold front.

This Week: Colder, Less HumidAs an unusually chilly air mass for this time of the year moves in, temperatures are going to also drop. Tuesday night will mark the start of this drop, with low temperatures cooling down into the 50s away from the immediate coast. Wednesday's high temperatures will also be colder, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and lower to mid 70s inland.

Thursday is also expected to be chilly, with morning temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s elsewhere except for parts of NYC, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area. Friday should be slightly warmer than Thursday. No rain is expected during this time frame.

Next Weekend And Beyond: Heat, Humidity ReturnAs the trough starts to exit, a ridge should build in by next weekend, bringing the return of hot and humid conditions. Saturday should not be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, however Sunday is going to be hot and humid again, with high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the 4th of July. Monday could be even warmer, with high temperatures potentially in the lower to mid 90s, however this is still uncertain.

There is a lot of uncertainty for next week's forecast, especially with Alex's remnants and how they may affect the pattern, however one thing that is likely is that it should be hot, humid and dry. It is possible that Alex's remnants may bring some showers and storms to our area next week, sometime between June 6 and 8, however this is still uncertain, and if this scenario does not verify, dry conditions should continue through all of next week.

5:00 PM: Today's storm coverage has now ended. The storms in NE NJ/NYC are going to continue moving E to ENE, affecting parts of northern Long Island and S CT, with only isolated activity afterwards. An update will be posted later tonight, discussing this coming week and the longer range.

4:28 PM: There are still storms moving through the area, with south central Connecticut still seeing moderate to heavy rain and storms. The last round of storms is currently moving east to ENE through Morris County, producing additional moderate to heavy rain. This area of storms should reach southern Passaic, Essex, Hudson and southern/central Bergen counties within the next hour. It may also bring heavy rain to northern NYC and northern Long Island in the longer range.

Behind this area of storms, other than an isolated shower or two, today's storm risk is expected to end. As expected from the start, due to the lack of supportive parameters, today's threat was not severe thunderstorms, but rather scattered to widespread non-severe storms, and this also proved to be the case so far across the region, with only 3 severe weather reports so far.

4:05 PM: The area of storms in southern Connecticut continues to intensify while slowly moving ENE. This area of storms is capable of producing very heavy rainfall up to 3/4 to 1 inch and gusty winds, with the potential for some hail.

Northern New Jersey, however, continues to see heavy rain, with flash flooding expected along and just north of I-80. The latest storm is further south than the others and still intensifying (moving through central Morris county within the next 20 minutes), and may bring heavy rain to places that have not seen it yet today, including southern Bergen county within the next hour.

3:38 PM: Another area of thunderstorms is currently affecting western New Jersey, with a small thunderstorm for northern New Jersey. As with the rest of today's storms, severe thunderstorms are not expected, however they are going to produce heavy rain with rainfall rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour, with the potential for gusty winds and possibly small hail in the stronger storms.

In addition, due to the storms constantly moving over northern New Jersey, flash flooding is possible in that area. Parts of northern New Jersey may end up with nearly 2 inches of rain today.

3:29 PM: A thunderstorm that just went through Bridgeport, CT has intensified and may reach strong levels, producing very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially small hail. Flash flooding may be possible in this storm cell, with rainfall rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour.

3:08 PM: There is currently an area of storms extending from NE NJ to Danbury, CT moving ENE. This area of storms is not severe, however it is capable of producing some lightning, moderate wind gusts, with the main threat being heavy rainfall locally up to 1/2 inch.

This area of storms should affect Bridgeport within the next 5-10 minutes, New Haven within the next 20-30 minutes, and Menden, CT in the next 30-40 minutes.

There are several updates this morning that have been mentioned in this post, including Tropical Storm Alex and its potential impact on the United States, today's hot, humid and stormy conditions, and a brief update on what we may be looking at for the 4th of July weekend.

A full update will be posted late tonight, focusing on the longer range.

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As we are already seeing, with mainly sunny skies in place, temperatures are quickly rising across the area. Yesterday ended up being very hot and humid, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, and today could end up even warmer in parts of the area.

As long as there is not as much cloud cover during the rest of the morning, high temperatures are going to be able to rise into the mid to upper 90s for the immediate NYC area and places further south and SW. With dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, the heat index may reach the lower 100s.

Today's Severe Weather Potential:5-10% RiskAs mentioned in Saturday's update, today's severe weather potential is not very high, which is mainly due to the lack of supportive parameters shown on the models. The parameters continue to be unimpressive for today's event, with the lowest parameters on the NAM and GFS over the area. In addition, the timing of the storms is not as supportive as other outbreaks were for widespread severe weather, likely to move through between 2 and 6 PM.

At this time, today's highest severe weather risk in the NYC area should be in Connecticut, spreading into the rest of southern New England, where a 10% risk for severe weather is in place, with a dotted area representing a potential higher risk zone. The east central Mid Atlantic also has a 10% risk for severe weather, with the rest of the NYC area in a 5-10% risk, where scattered thunderstorms are possible, a few of which could become strong. The biggest risk with today's storms should be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.

Potential Changes: This outlook may still need to be changed around a little. It is possible that the rest of the area may need to be included in the 10% risk, with a 15% risk for parts of Connecticut and SNE.

Should any severe storms affect the area, updates will be posted between 3-5 PM.

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4th of July Weekend Update

With a dry pattern developing after today's storm potential, next weekend is also expected to stay dry. By then, however, as the trough that should be over the area through next week should exit, much warmer temperatures should return. Saturday should already warm up into the mid 80s, with Sunday the 4th of July likely to have high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s at this time.

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Tropical Storm Alex:

After Saturday's update, Tropical Storm Alex has followed a rather confusing path, first intensifying while moving inland into the Yucatan peninsula, then nearly stalling offshore while intensifying, with the low pressure being nearly as deep as a category 1 hurricane but the winds only reaching weak tropical storm criteria. Alex is now starting to drift NNW while slowly intensifying, with warm SSTs in its area, however the wind shear is not as supportive, already approaching 20 knots and slowly intensifying.

At this time, I am expecting Alex to keep moving NNW and affect the southern Texas coast by late this week, most likely as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, however there is still uncertainty with the intensity forecast, and it is possible that Alex may be slightly weaker or stronger. Alex is not expected to have any significant impact on the oil spill area.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

While today started out mainly sunny, the day ended the opposite way, with cloudy skies and some scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the area. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight, with the next few days also being hot and humid. Afterwards, though, the hot and humid conditions are going to temporarily end.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be partly cloudy, however temperatures are expected to warm up. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. With a S to SSE wind, Long Island and S CT should warm up into the lower to mid 80s, with the immediate coast slightly colder, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible as a warm front moves through the area, especially in the western parts of the area, severe weather is not expected tomorrow, though there is the possibility that any isolated storm could become strong.

Monday: Hot, Humid And Stormy

Monday is going to bring temperatures as warm as Thursday's temperatures, if not slightly warmer. With the 850 mb temperatures reaching 19c to 21c, and mostly sunny skies possible early in the day, high temperatures are going to be able to rise into the mid to possibly upper 90s away from the coast, with even the coast warming up into the upper 80s to lower 90s with a SW wind. The only limiting factor to the temperatures could be the cloud cover, which would slightly lower the temperatures if there is more cloud cover than currently expected.

The heat index could be a problem again for Monday. With dew points in the lower 70s combined with high temperatures in the 90s, the heat index could reach the lower 100s. This, again, follows the scenario that there are mainly sunny skies during the first half of the day, and it is possible that there could be slightly lower temperatures and dew points, which would lead to a slightly colder but still very warm heat index, in the mid 90s.

Monday is also expected to bring widespread scattered thunderstorms to the area as the cold front moves through, and in fact, it may be more than a week until the next time that the area sees additional rainfall. At this time, however, widespread severe thunderstorms like those of Thursday are not expected. On Thursday, the parameters for severe weather were unusually impressive, however for this event the parameters are not supportive of severe weather, including relatively low CAPE and LI, low wind shear, and unsupportive lapse rates. While I do expect thunderstorms on Monday, widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, and at this time the area only has a 5% risk of severe thunderstorms.

Rest Of Next Week: Colder, Less Humid

Tuesday is still expected to be warm due to the warm air mass still exiting the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for NE NJ and NYC, lower to mid 80s for NW NJ and Orange County, NY, and in the mid 80s for Long Island and S CT, however the humidity is expected to significantly decrease. On Wednesday, the temperatures will follow as a large trough enters the area, cooling down into the upper 70s to lower 80s, slightly colder inland, where they should stay for the rest of the week. Low temperatures should be in the 50s to lower 60s away from the coast.

By Saturday, however, as another warm air mass builds into the area, the temperatures should start to warm up once again. High temperatures for Saturday are likely to be in the mid 80s away from the coast, with Sunday warming up potentially even more, with 4th of July likely to be warm and dry at this time.

Last night's Tropical Depression 1 has intensified into Tropical Storm Alex. While it was slow to intensify at first, Alex has gone through a brief period of quick intensification, which brought it to its current status as a moderate to strong tropical storm (its official intensity will be updated in NHC's official 5 PM update). Alex is currently making landfall in the southern Yucatan, however the question is what happens next?

Alex's Scenario

If we were to follow the models over the past few days, Alex would have turned NNW into the Gulf, then moved north while intensifying, making landfall as a hurricane along the US coast along the Gulf of Mexico. In yesterday's update, I mentioned that these models were most likely too far north, and instead a track towards mainland Mexico was more likely. Today's models did trend towards that solution, however looking at the latest trends, it is possible that Alex does not emerge at all into the Gulf of Mexico after its landfall in the Yucatan.

This scenario was mentioned in yesterday's update as being unlikely, but possible. Instead of turning northwest as the models have been showing, Alex continues to move west, and in fact has started to move towards the west even faster than expected, making it even more unlikely that Alex manages to turn northwest well into the Gulf of Mexico. Looking at the latest satellite loops, Alex continues to move west, which could take it deep into Mexico, never emerging into the Gulf.

Possible ForecastsWith the above mentioned, I decided to make a different forecast for Alex for this update. What is likely is that at this time is that Alex shouldn't affect the areas of the Gulf of Mexico currently affected by the oil spill. The question is where Alex heads from this point, whether it keeps moving west and never emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, or it turns NW and stays in the southern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I am leaning towards Alex returning to the Gulf of Mexico, however I doubt that it will be able to intensify as much as it could have, and I am also not ruling out the possibility that it never emerges into the Gulf of Mexico again.

**Note: Alex's position on the map below is from NHC's 2 PM advisory.**

Friday, June 25, 2010

Only a partial update was posted tonight. The 5-Day Forecast and the Severe Weather/Tropical pages were not updated.

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After yesterday's storms, today proved to be a much nicer day, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. The heat and humidity are going to briefly return by late this weekend and early next week, however afterwards the heat and humidity are going to be taking a long break.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will continue with the nice conditions, with similar temperatures expected. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, and with a WSW to SW wind, Long Island and S CT should stay in the lower to mid 80s, with the immediate coast slightly colder.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow night, however the majority of these storms should stay to our north. Note that not the whole area should be seeing rain on Saturday night, and these storms are not expected to be severe.

Sunday And Monday: Hot, Humid, And Some Storms

Sunday should be slightly warmer than Saturday, especially south and SW of NYC, with partly cloudy skies. The western parts of the area should have a WSW wind with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, however the eastern parts of the area should have an ENE wind, which should prevent the temperatures from warming up too much, keeping temperatures in the lower to occasionally mid 80s.

While Sunday should stay dry, Monday will not be the same. A cold front will be approaching on Monday, bringing temperatures again into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast, but with a southwest wind, Long Island and S CT should be warmer than the previous 2 days, reaching the mid to upper 80s.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Monday afternoon and evening, however there are several factors at this time that may prevent this from becoming a widespread severe weather outbreak. The NAM has very unsupportive parameters for severe weather, especially by having very little wind shear, and while the CAPE and LI are high on the GFS, wind shear is missing once again. This was the case in several days that had potential for severe weather this year, and as a result, there were only a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Unless the models change with the scenario for Monday, only scattered storms are expected, some of which could become strong.

Mid To Late Next Week: Colder, Then Warming Up

Tuesday should not be much colder, with high temperatures still in the mid 80s away from the coast, but the humidity should decrease. As a colder air mass moves into the area, high temperatures are going to drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with low temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s away from the coast.

By late next week, there is unusually high uncertainty with the forecast, mainly due to significant variations with the models' handling of Tropical Depression One's possible approach into the Gulf Of Mexico. However, as the trough will have been at least a few days over the region by then, it is reasonable to assume that it will start to move out of the area, as some models have also been showing, with warmer conditions returning. This is the scenario that I am expecting for now, with temperatures by next weekend warming up into the mid-upper 80s again.

**Tropics Update:**Tropical Depression 1, the first of this year's Atlantic hurricane season, has formed late this afternoon. At this time, it is expected to intensify into a tropical storm and make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday. There are, however, a few observations that might change the forecast. At this time, TD1 appears to be moving west, unlike the models that show it moving due NW.

For now, I am leaning towards a further south solution than the models, however I did highlight the possibility in the southern end of the potential track area that TD1 simply moves west along the coast of Honduras, either dissipating or making landfall in the southern Yucatan Peninsula. This is unlikely at this time, however this possibility does have to be watched.

There were several changes in the model solutions for the next few days, as well as important updates on the tropics, which are covered in this brief morning update.

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Yesterday's Severe Weather: A summary of yesterday's event both in the area and in the region was posted in the Storm Summary page. This summary may be updated over the next day or two if new information comes in.

***Update:Bridgeport EF-1 Tornado Confirmed Today***

Weekend Storms:

The models are now showing an area of storms on Saturday night. There is uncertainty with the exact placement of the storms and how much rain falls, however the probability of storms for Saturday night is likely to be upgraded to a 40-50% chance with tonight's update. Sunday's storm risk remains low for now.

Tropics:

In the Atlantic Ocean, despite being further south than expected, 93L has become better organized today, and may become a tropical depression over the next 2 days, the first of the Atlantic hurricane season. This storm may later move into the Gulf of Mexico, however there is uncertainty on what part of the Gulf of Mexico it reaches, where at this time, I am leaning towards the further south solutions, taking 93L towards the southern Gulf of Mexico. More details will come with a full update tonight.

In the Pacific Ocean, Darby and Celia have both gone through impressive strengthening, with Celia becoming a Category 5 hurricane, which is very unusual for the Eastern Pacific ocean.

Hurricane Celia:160 mph Wind / 926 mb

Hurricane Celia, currently well southwest of Mexico, remains under a favorable environment as mentioned in yesterday's update, which led to additional strengthening, however Celia intensified more than expected, reaching Category 5 status this morning. Despite the models showing weakening, Celia remains under a favorable environment, and additional slight intensification is possible. While it is uncertain how much Celia strengthens, if at all, it is expected to peak sometime in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, Celia should start to move into a less favorable environment, and should start to weaken. Celia may become a tropical storm by the middle of next week.

Hurricane Darby:105 mph Wind / 967 mb

Hurricane Darby, as expected, has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, however it remains under favorable conditions for additional intensification. The current forecast expects Darby to peak as a high-end Category 3 hurricane, and while there is uncertainty, it is possible that Darby may intensify beyond the current forecast if the environment remains very favorable over the next 2 days. Afterwards, Darby is expected to significantly slow down, if not stall, and along with increased wind shear, should lead to Darby weakening. Darby may later change direction and move NE towards Mexico.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Today's Summary: While today was inactive in some places, including parts of southern New York City, there was rather significant activity today, with the two main areas being Queens, NY and Bridgeport, CT. The same thunderstorm that moved through NE NJ earlier in the afternoon rapidly intensified once it reached Queens, dumping hail up to 1.75" in size, with a report that a car was dented.

Bridgeport, CT got hit the hardest today, with a severe storm that produced hurricane force wind gusts and a possible tornado. The storm was originally in SE NY, moving ESE towards Bridgeport while intensifying. The storm also produced hail and heavy rainfall in that area before moving offshore. Bridgeport is currently under a state of emergency, with many houses still without power, and it is possible that this storm will be considered as a tornado by the NWS.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be a much nicer day than today, bringing a relief from the humidity and the heat, and better conditions for any clean up from today's storms. With a slightly colder air mass in place, high temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. Long Island and S CT should reach the lower to mid 80s, with the immediate coast in the upper 70s.

The rest of the region should also be very nice tomorrow. With a high pressure in control, mainly sunny skies are expected, with temperatures in the 70s for the Northeast. The only place that should not be as comfortable is Virginia, where high temperatures in the 90s should continue.

Weekend Outlook: Increasing Warmth, Some StormsThis weekend's forecast becomes more complicated. Saturday should continue to be warm, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with Long Island and southern Connecticut slightly colder, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday will be slightly warmer, with parts of the area reaching the lower 90s, especially south and SW of NYC.

On both days, there is the potential for thunderstorms, focusing on Saturday night and Sunday, however due to uncertainty, I only labeled these days as having an isolated chance. If the forecasts change for this time period, tomorrow's update will reflect any change.

Monday: Hot, Humid And StormyAs a strong storm moves to our north, Monday will bring another potential for severe thunderstorms due to a strong cold front. This time, the parameters are shown to be very favorable for severe weather on some model runs, including temperatures possibly reaching well into the 90s again. There is still some uncertainty, however there is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms again on Monday. Stay tuned for more details.

After Monday, much colder temperatures should return, along with less humidity. High temperatures on Tuesday will cool down into the lower 80s, with Wednesday possibly back into the upper 70s. Afterwards, however, there are signs that warm conditions may return once again, with a ridge possibly building into the area by late next week or early next weekend.

3:58 PM: A strong thunderstorm in NE PA is currently approaching Sussex County, NJ and Orange County, NY, and should be there within the next 30-50 minutes. This storm is capable of producing heavy rainfall up to 1/2 inch, small hail and gusty winds.

Reports are coming in to the NWS website that the storm that previously moved through Bridgeport, CT caused significant damage in that area. It is possible that a tornado may have moved through that area, however at this time no report of a tornado has been sent to the NWS.

This is the last brief storm update for today, however the thunderstorm potential will continue through later this afternoon into early this evening. A full update will be posted late tonight including the latest tropical outlook, the possibility of heat and storms returning on Monday, and what happens afterwards.

3:28 PM: The storms have ended across most of the area, though there is still a thunderstorm in south central Long Island, moving ESE. Meanwhile, the sun is shining across the area, which is allowing for temperatures to warm up again.

A second area of thunderstorms currently in east central NY is moving east southeast, and may reach parts of the area later this afternoon. There is uncertainty whether the storms will manage to reach severe levels or not, however another round of thunderstorms is possible later this afternoon, especially from northern NJ and places further north and NE.

2:56 PM: The severe storm that previously affected southern Connecticut is now headed towards NE Long Island. Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail and heavy rain are possible with this storm.

Some moderate rain will continue to move through southeastern Connecticut over the next 1/2 to 1 hour, while western Long Island will see some rain and thunder due to a storm that just went through northern NYC.

2:22 PM: ***WARNING:*** Bridgeport, CT is under a Tornado Warning. This storm has a history of producing heavy rainfall and also has a hail signature on the radar. It is moving east to ESE, and should pass near New Haven.

The storm in NE New Jersey is headed towards places between Fort Lee, NJ and Central Park. This storm is capable of producing heavy rainfall and moderate wind gusts. Some small hail cannot be ruled out either.

2:08 PM: A strong to severe thunderstorm capable of producing moderate wind gusts, small hail and heavy rainfall is currently located in northeastern New Jersey, and quickly moving east. This storm may produce rainfall amounts between 0.2 and 0.4 inches of rain in a short period of time.

There are also stronger thunderstorms in western Connecticut, moving east southeast. These storms should affect parts of New Haven and the surrounding area with gusty winds, small hail, and rainfall amounts locally near 1/2 inch of rain. An isolated tornado may be possible if the storms reach severe levels.

This morning ended up mainly sunny across the area, as the area of clouds mentioned in yesterday's update failed to bring significant cloud cover to the area this morning, but rather well to our north. With this, temperatures are now on the rise, and are expected to peak in the mid 90s away from the coast. A few places in the immediate NYC area or further SW may even reach the upper 90s.

Today's Severe Weather Potential:15% Risk

The short range models have now come into range for today's outbreak, and they are not too impressive. One of the possibilities mentioned in yesterday's discussion is that the best parameters shift to our north, which is the case on the latest RUC runs, which have been consistent. They take a squall line in central PA, but only the northern parts of the squall line survive and intensify due to the higher parameters in southern New England, and the area of the squall line in central PA collapses.

Looking at the current observations, there is an area of strong thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania that is intensifying and moving east. This area of storms is expected to affect our area later this afternoon, bringing locally strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of the area, but with the best parameters staying to our north, the worst of the storms may end up to our north and northeast.

Below is my current outlook for today. I included our area in the 15% risk, with the northern and northeastern parts of the area in the dotted area, which represents a potential higher risk zone. More updates will be posted later this afternoon, between 2-4 PM.

Brief Update:

More on the longer range will be posted with a full update late tonight, including the return of heat and storms on Monday and what will come afterwards. Forecasts for Invest 93L in the Caribbean and Celia/Darby in the East Pacific will also be included.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Note:The 5-Day Outlook and the Severe Weather/Tropical pages were not updated today.

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Last night ended up bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area, focusing on central Long Island, Connecticut and northern New Jersey, though some places barely got any rain last night, including southern Bergen county.

Today so far was partly to mostly cloudy, which prevented temperaturs from reaching the mid 90s, however parts of the area are in the lower 90s. Tomorrow is going to be different, however, as warmer temperatures are possible, including thunderstorms.

Tomorrow's Outlook / Severe Weather Potential

If there is less cloud cover than today, tomorrow could easily be the warmest day so far this year. The air mass is going to be very warm, with 850 mb temperatures near 20c. At this time, I am expecting tomorrow to start out mostly cloudy, with some clearing by the late morning/early afternoon and more clouds afterwards, leading to high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s. If there is enough sunshine, a few places in the immediate NYC area and further SW may reach the upper 90s.

Meanwhile, the cold front that will be producing severe thunderstorms for western NY/PA tonight will be moving through the area tomorrow. The parameters for severe weather are shown to be supportive for a widespread severe weather outbreak, which would support a 30%severe weather risk. There are, however, other factors that may affect tomorrow's risk.

Thursday's Severe Weather Potential:15% Risk

As I previously mentioned, the cold front will be producing widespread severe weather and potentially a MCS for western NY and PA late tonight. The remnants of the severe weather may reach our area tomorrow early morning, leading to mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers or storms, though the shower/storm risk is higher to our north.

By the late morning, the cloud cover should start clearing some, though it is uncertain how much the sky clears up. If there are sunny to mostly sunny skies, then the atmosphere can destabilize, and the temperatures would rise into the mid to possibly upper 90s. If there are partly to mostly cloudy skies, the atmosphere will not destabilize as much, and temperatures would stay in the lower to mid 90s.

In the late afternoon, the cold front should move through. The parameters are favorable, with CAPE betwen 1500-2000, LI between -4 and -6, and wind shear between 35 and 50 knots. The models show a possible squall line moving through at that time, however the intensity of this squall line in the area depends on the cloud cover from earlier in the day, and where the best parameters are located. There is always the chance that a thunderstorm either to our north, in the area or to our south strengthens more and weakens the storms in between.

For now, I am going on the conservative side and expecting a 15% risk of severe weather for our area. If the scenario where there is more sunshine tomorrow and the best parameters stay near our area verifies, a 30% risk may be needed, however this is still uncertain. More details will come tomorrow, including a possible late morning update.

Friday And Weekend: Colder, Then Warming Up

Friday and Saturday should both be colder than Thursday, as a slightly colder air mass returns to the area. High temperatures should still remain near to slightly above average, in the mid to upper 80s, with mostly to partly sunny skies. By Sunday, however, temperatures should warm up ahead of the next storm, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Monday is a more interesting day, however. As an intense storm moves to our north, it brings through a cold front, but the air mass behind it is much colder. There is still uncertainty on how far north the storm is and its timing, however it is possible that Monday could bring a severe thunderstorm risk, along with temperatures rising well into the 90s again. Stay tuned for more details.

By Tuesday, there is a lot of uncertainty with the models, however it should be colder again. Temperatures are expected to return to below average levels again, but the extent of that is uncertain. The GFS and DGEX take this to the extreme, with high temperatures only in the 60s to lower 70s, well below the average for this time of the year. At this time, I am leaning towards a less extreme scenario, with high temperatures dropping into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

2:10 PM Update:There is currently an area of weakening light rain in central Pennsylvania extending towards New York, moving east towards our area. While not all places will see rain, there will be cloudy skies across the area this afternoon. The best chance of rain should be in the western parts of the area, in northwestern New Jersey and Orange County, NY, where light to locally moderate rain is possible. Further east, areas of light rain are possible, with otherwise cloudy skies.

This area of rain is stabilizing the atmosphere, which despite supportive parameters, will limit severe weather potential across the region. In addition, the short term model RUC does not show widespread severe weather across the region.

Today's severe weather forecast remains unchanged from yesterday, with a 10% risk in place for western Pennsylvania and New York for the potential of scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be locally strong. Not many severe weather reports are expected today, and those that do come out are likely to be wind reports in the western parts of the region. Afterwards, the area is likely to see non-severe rain and thunderstorms tonight.

Today's update will be posted later this afternoon, including an update for the heat and humidity tomorrow and on Thursday.

So far, today started out mainly sunny, with increasing clouds due to an approaching area of rain and storms. Despite this, temperatures are still warm, in the mid to upper 80s, but the northwestern parts of the area did not warm up as much due to cloud cover, staying in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The next few days are going to be much warmer than this, however, and along with increasing humidity, will make for an uncomfortable Wednesday and Thursday.

Tonight's Outlook: Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight, especially in the western parts of the area, where up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible. Further east, there should be less rainfall.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be much warmer and more humid than today. With a warmer air mass in place, high temperatures are going to rise into the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. With a west with, places such as southern Connecticut and Long Island will also warm up into the upper 80s. Along with higher humidity, the heat index will be in the upper 90s.

The rest of the Mid Atlantic will also be hot and humid tomorrow. The warmest place should be Virginia, where high temperatures should reach the upper 90s, locally reaching 100 degrees. Meanwhile, the Northeast will be chilly. High temperatures should be in the 70s and 80s, with a few 60s in Maine. The region should stay dry, though there is a chance of storms for western New York, NW PA and West Virginia, which the majority of these storms should stay below severe levels.

Thursday: Verty Hot, Humid, And StormyThursday is going to be the warmest day so far this year in parts of the area. With partly cloudy skies and 850 mb temperatures between 18c and 20c, high temperatures are going to reach the 90s across most of the area, even including parts of Long Island and southern CT, except for the immediate coast. If there is enough sunshine, parts of the immediate NYC area may even reach the upper 90s. With dew points in the 70s, the heat index could reach the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching the area on Thursday. There is still uncertainty on the timing of the storms and the parameters, however there is the potential for storms that could locally be strong or severe. For now, I placed the area under a 5% risk of severe weather, however this may change with tomorrow's update.

Friday Into Next Week: Still Warm, But Not HotAfter the cold front moves through, colder temperatures are expected for Friday, with high temperatures cooling down into the mid to upper 80s. Saturday should be slightly colder, though Sunday will warm up again as the warm air mass reaches our area again. High temperatures as a result will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Monday should have similar temperatures, though afterwards there is much more uncertainty.

There is going to be an unusually cold air mass moving into northern New England, creating a tight temperature gradient between northern New England and the northern Mid Atlantic. The question is where this tight gradient sets up. At this time, I am leaning towards our area being on the northern end of the warm air mass, with high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s, though this is not final yet and can still change.

Monday, June 21, 2010

After yesterday's hot and humid conditions, today was still hot, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, even near the immediate coast due a west wind, but there was less humidity. Unfortunately, this will not be the case over the next few days, with Wednesday and Thursday potentially being the warmest days so far this summer.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow, like today, will also be hot, though humidity will be on the increase again. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast, but with a south wind, southern Connecticut and Long Island will not be as warm as today, with high temperatures in the lower 80s.

The area will stay dry tomorrow with partly sunny skies. The far western parts of the region will be dealing with storms, though a widespread severe weather outbreak is not anticipated. Tomorrow night will be different though, as this area of storms approaches the area. The best chance for rain should be in the northern parts of the area, where rain amounts may locally reach 1/4 to 1/2 inch, otherwise light rain amounts are possible over the area.

Wednesday And Thursday: Very Hot, HumidWednesday and Thursday may be the warmest days so far this year. With a very warm air mass including 850 mb temperatures between 18c and 20c, temperatures are going to rise into the 90s again. Wednesday should bring temperatures into the lower to mid 90s, and due to a west wind, Long Island and S CT will also warm up into the upper 80s. With dew points in the upper 60s, humidity is also expected, and may lead to the heat index reaching the mid to upper 90s. Due to the lack of supportive parameters, no severe weather is expected, though some strong to severe storms may be possible in the western parts of the region.

Thursday is likely to be warmer out of the two days. As the warmest of the air mass moves over the area, despite mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures are going to be able to reach the mid 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area, and with dew points in the lower 70s, may lead to the heat index reaching 100 degrees. There is some uncertainty to this forecast though, as the NAM is currently the warmest model, with the GFS being colder.

At this time, a severe weather outbreak on Thursday is not expected. Despite favorable parameters, with moderate CAPE/LI amounts and relatively high wind shear, a combination that we were unable to get many times this year, the timing of the cold front may not be supportive, which may lead to the best chance for severe weather staying to our south/east. However, as I previously mentioned, there is uncertainty on Thursday, as for example, the 18z NAM was slower and brought a higher risk of strong/severe storms to the area, while the GFS is faster and not as warm. More details on this potential will be posted in tomorrow's update.

Friday And Next Weekend: Slightly Colder, But Warmth ReturnsFriday and Saturday should be colder, due to a colder air mass, with high temperatures in the mid 80s, however Sunday should warm up ahead of the next cold front, with highs potentially returning into the 90s. There is still uncertainty with this time frame, so stay tuned for more details.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Tropics: Forecasts for Tropical Storms Blas and Celia in the East Pacific.Severe Weather: Outlooks for tomorrow and Monday have been posted.

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Today was yet another very warm day, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s inland, though a south wind prevented this warmth from reaching places such as Long Island and southern Connecticut, where high temperatures reached the mid to upper 70s. Tomorrow is going to be different, however, with warmer temperatures across the area, including Long Island and southern CT.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to start what is going to be a very warm week. With 850 mb temperatures between 16c and 18c, high temperatures are going to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast, with parts of the immediate NYC area potentially reaching the mid 90s. With dew points in the mid 60s, the heat index may reach the upper 90s. Long Island and S CT excluding the immediate coast should also warm up into the mid 80s.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front will approach the area. While the storms should stay to our north and east, a few storms are possible, especially in the eastern parts of the area. There is a 5% chance of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in New England tomorrow, though the parts of the area that may have a slightly higher chance of seeing scattered thunderstorms are in southern and central Connecticut, where the NAM has been consistently showing an area of potentially strong thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon. Long Island, NYC and NE NJ also have a slight chance of seeing an isolated storm, with places south and west of those areas likely to stay dry.Next Week's Outlook: Very Warm, Humid And StormyDespite a cold front moving through the area on Sunday, it is only expected to be a weak cold front, which will have little influence on the area other than changing the wind direction towards the west. Monday should continue to be warm but slightly less humid, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. Long Island and southern Connecticut should also warm up into the mid to potentially upper 80s with a west wind.

Tuesday is also expected to be warm, however there is the potential for isolated thunderstorms as a low pressure approaches from our west. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, with slightly more humid conditions.

Wednesday and Thursday bring a higher chance of scattered thunderstorms to the area. With a low pressure to our north and an approaching cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on both days. There is still uncertainty whether these storms become severe or not, however looking at the pattern so far this year, they would be more likely to stay below severe levels than bringing a severe weather outbreak, however this can still change. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast on both days, and there is the potential that a few parts of the area reach the lower 90s on either day.

By Friday, the cold front should have already crossed the area. Temperatures are going to cool down for Friday, returning into the lower 80s with lower humidity. This break from the warmth, however, is going to be short lasting, as another ridge is then expected to move into the area either late next weekend or the early week. There is uncertainty with the placement and intensity of this ridge, though the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF bring in much warmer 850 mb temperatures, which if verifies, could bring temperatures well into the 90s. More details will come once there is less uncertainty on this time frame.

Brief Tropics Overview: (Can also be found in the "Severe Weather/Tropics" section)In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blas is currently at 65 mph, and is expected to slightly intensify before weakening by next week. Tropical Storm Celia is steadily intensifying and may become a hurricane tomorrow, potentially reaching Category 2 intensity by at least the middle of next week. Another tropical disturbance currently in the western Caribbean may move into the East Pacific early next week, potentially leading to another tropical invest.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Severe Weather: Day 2 and Day 3 Severe Weather Outlooks have been posted.

The 5-Day Forecasts are now updated again, covering northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, NYC, Long Island and southern Connecticut.

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After yesterday's chilly temperatures, where some places barely even reached the lower 70s, today proved to be much warmer, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast due to a warmer air mass approaching. This should continue to be the case over the next week as a warm air mass remains in place.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow, like today, is expected to be a warm day, with temperatures similar to today, if not slightly warmer in some places. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, leaning towards the higher end of that range in some places. Due to a south wind, Long Island/S CT and the coast will stay colder, in the lower to mid 80s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected with dry conditions, however a cold front is going to be approaching from the west. For tomorrow, this front will bring thunderstorms, locally strong to severe, to western New York and Pennsylvania, where I placed a 10% risk of severe thunderstorms.

Sunday Forecast: Very Warm, Some Storms PossibleSunday's forecast was quite difficult to make, as there are still differences with the models, however as the last two days have shown that the NAM performed better than the GFS, the more likely solution is starting to become a bit clearer. As the warmest air mass should be over the area on Sunday, with 850 mb temperatures between 16 and 18c, high temperatures are going to easily rise into the upper 80s away from the coast, and parts of the immediate NYC area may reach the lower to potentially mid 90s if the NAM verifies.

As the NAM is slower, the cold front is also further east than it is on the GFS, leading to the NAM showing a potential thunderstorm threat on Sunday. The parameters are relatively supportive at this time, however I am not too confident about any strong to severe thunderstorm potential for now. In my Day 3 outlook, I posted a 5% risk over the area, however it is possible that the southern parts of the risk (including our area), or the entire risk itself, may have to be removed. More details will come with tomorrow's update.

Next Week: Dry Start, But Storms ReturnDespite the cold front moving through, as it is expected to be weak, there will be little change with the air mass and the temperatures. The only significant change should be that the wind direction will come out of the west rather than the south/southwest. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

By Tuesday, however, the storm potential increases. The models have been consistently showing an area of low pressure to our north which should bring precipitation towards the area between Tuesday and Thursday. There is uncertainty with any severe weather potential, though thunderstorms are possible each day during this time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

By late next week, a slightly colder air mass should move into the area. Dry conditions are expected to return with temperatures staying near average, in the lower to mid 80s.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Notice: Until Friday, only this page will continue to be updated. Starting on either Friday or Saturday, the 5-Day Forecast and the Severe Weather/Tropics pages will be updated again. The Long Range Forecast page will be updated as well, with this year's hurricane season outlook.

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Today was another cloudy yet mild day, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, though there were a few breaks in the clouds, especially in the afternoon.

As previously expected, despite the forecast models showing a decent severe weather threat today, severe weather did not show up across the region today, due to the lack of supportive parameters and the timing of the cold front not being supportive at all, moving through late tonight rather than this afternoon. As yesterday's forecast mentioned, parts of the region did see thunderstorms, including parts of the area, with a few isolated storms becoming strong in the Mid Atlantic.

Short Term Forecast: There is the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms into late tonight as the cold front moves through, some of which could locally bring up to 1/4 inch of rain, however not the whole area will be seeing rain tonight, and most places are likely to stay dry.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be a nicer day than today. As the storm exits the area, partly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, though with a colder air mass briefly returning, temperatures are going to be slightly below average. High temperatures should be in the mid 70s inland, in the upper 70s for the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 70s for Long Island and S CT.

The rest of the region should not be as nice, however. With a warmer air mass still remaining in the southern Mid Atlantic, temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with humid conditions are expected. In the interior Northeast, chilly temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s are expected, along with cloudy skies and some rain from today's storm.

Friday And Weekend Outlook: Very WarmThere have been some changes with the latest models, and including a large difference between the GFS and the NAM models, it is possible that at least this weekend will not be as hot as originally expected. Significant difference with the two models begin with tomorrow's forecast, though I have leaned towards the warmer GFS.

The difference gets only wider afterwards. On Friday, the GFS shows widespread mid-upper 80s, but the NAM only has a very narrow area of lower 80s, with 70s elsewhere, as it is slow in bringing in the warmer air mass. At this time, I am going slightly warmer than the NAM, but not as warm as the GFS, considering that it may be a bit too fast in bringing in the warm air mass, expecting high temperatures generally in the mid 80s, though a few places may reach the upper 80s.

Saturday continues with the difference, though I am going to lean slightly closer to the NAM at this time. The latest GFS run may be a bit too cold, with high temperatures only in the lower 80s. The NAM, meanwhile, continues to bring the warmer air mass closer to the area, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s. For Saturday, I am expecting high temperatures in the upper 80s, though note that the forecast is not final and can still change.

For Sunday, the GFS shows a cold front moving through, and as the warmest 850 mb temperatures only peak overnight, if that solution verifies, temperatures would not get above 90 degrees at all during this time period, with Sunday cooling down into the lower to mid 80s. Looking at the last few storms, the models may be a bit too fast with the cold front, so at this time, I am also expecting Sunday's high temperatures to peak in the upper 80s, though if the timing trends slower, high temperatures in the lower 90s may be possible.

Next Week Brief OutlookBy Monday, as the weak cold front should have moved through, temperatures should slightly cool down, however there is uncertainty on where the line between the colder temperatures and the persistent warm temperatures should form. At this time, I am thinking that it could end up near the area, with temperatures staying in the 80s through most of next week, but again, there is still uncertainty, so this can still change.

Tropics Update:The second tropical depression of the East Pacific hurricane season has formed along the southern coast of Mexico, and is slowly moving west. This tropical depression should intensify into a weak to moderate tropical storm and move parallel to the coast of Mexico, then moving away from land in the next few days.

There is no activity in the Atlantic Ocean at this time that has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Today was a very nice day, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures rising into the 70s and lower 80s. This is going to change, however, with a disturbance that should affect the area tomorrow evening and throughout the overnight hours.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is not going to be anywhere near as nice as today. With cloud cover ahead of a storm, high temperatures aren't going to warm up too much, reaching the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area and in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

The storm is also going to bring the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Due to the lack of supportive parameters, there is only the possibility of isolated strong storms for Virginia/Maryland extending up to southern Pennsylvania/NJ that would qualify for a 5-10% severe weather risk. There should be some thunderstorms around the area as well, bringing rainfall amounts up to 1/4 inch, locally higher.

Late Week And Weekend: Heat Returns, So Does UncertaintyBy Thursday, the storm should exit the area, leaving us with partly sunny skies, though high temperatures are going to be on the rise, reaching the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area and the upper 70s inland. Friday is going to continue warming up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.

By Saturday, uncertainty begins to return once again. Very warm temperatures are expected, but the question is the location of the 850 mb temperatures, which varies from placing us in the warmer temperatures to having the warmest temperatures to our west. At this time, I am expecting Saturday's high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, though as there is uncertainty, it is possible that Saturday is warmer (lower to mid 90s) and Sunday is colder, or Saturday is slightly colder and Sunday sees high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

A weak cold front then approaches on Sunday, however it should considerably weaken by the time that it reaches the area, and with a colder air mass significantly weakening and staying well to our north, Sunday is expected to remain very warm, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though as I said above, there is still uncertainty on the day that the warmth peaks.Next Week Thoughts

For early next week, significant uncertainty returns on the models, varying from placing our area under a persistent warm air mass and temperatures staying in the upper 80s to lower 90s, to bringing a trough and temperatures back into the 70s and 80s. Looking at the pattern in place, however, I would lean towards the warmer scenario at this time.

The troughs lately are not as effective as they used to be earlier in the year and are further north, and only have the greatest effects in the Northeast, where below average temperatures have been found. In our area, they only remain near to slightly above average, and in the central and southern Mid Atlantic, above average temperatures continue to persist. As a La Nina continues to develop, and a more established high pressure forms, I would expect this to continue to be the case, and while there will be some colder days and some warmer days, this warm summer pattern may be here to stay.

Monday, June 14, 2010

This week started on a cloudy note, as cloudy skies with temperatures in the 70s and 80s were observed today, along with a little rain. Last weekend was relatively active in some places, as parts of Orange County, NY and Connecticut ended up with a flash flood warning on Saturday night due to the heavy thunderstorms, which dumped up to 2 inches of rain in a few places. Yesterday did bring some thunderstorms to the area, even bringing very heavy rain for western NJ and eastern PA, though as expected, the storms stayed below severe levels.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

If you enjoy dry, sunny and comfortable weather, enjoy tomorrow, because it will be the last of these types of days for a while. With a high pressure in control, the clouds will finally exit, with partly sunny skies in place and temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The coast and southern CT should be the exception to this, with high temperatures there in the mid to upper 70s.

Meanwhile, the western parts of the Mid Atlantic should be seeing cloudy skies as the next disturbance approaches from the west. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms for western Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and West Virginia. This disturbance is later going to approach our area, bringing clouds and rain once again by Wednesday.

Wednesday And Thursday: Stormy Conditions ReturnAs the next disturbance approaches the area, clouds are going to return again by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to be steady in the mid to upper 60s throughout the morning hours, starting to slowly rise by the early afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms should be during the evening hours, when up to 1/4 inch of rain is possible in some places. The temperatures should steadily rise through the evening and early overnight hours as the stalled front to our south becomes a warm front and moves through the area, bringing temperatures to peak in the mid to possibly upper 70s.

By Thursday, the storm should exit the area, but there will be little change in the temperatures despite a slightly colder air mass. High temperatures should actually warm up, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s again, with the warmest temperatures in the immediate NYC area.

Friday And Next Weekend: Heat, Humidity ReturnBy Friday, a much warmer air mass ahead of the next storm well to our west should begin to enter the area. With a high pressure in place and mainly sunny skies, temperatures are going to be able to quickly rise into the mid to upper 80s on Friday away from the coast.

Saturday is currently expected to be the warmest day. With 850 mb temperatures between 18-20c, temperatures are going to be able to rise into the 90s across most of the area, with some places possibly reaching the mid 90s.

By Sunday, there is some uncertainty on what happens, as the GFS is slower in bringing the next cold front through, actually keeping Sunday's highs in the 90s. The other models, such as the GGEM and ECMWF, however, bring the next cold front through faster, with colder temperatures for Sunday. At this time, I decided to lean towards the slightly slower solution, which would lead to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, if not slightly warmer.

Afterwards, temperatures should slightly cool down by early next week, however there are some signs that we may be looking at the return of heat by late next week. The ECMWF and GFS have been showing a much warmer pattern settling in by the longer range, and while this is still uncertain, it is something to keep an eye on.

The second invest of this year's Atlantic hurricane season has formed yesterday, being named 92L by the NHC, in the eastern Atlantic ocean. This invest has been able to intensify quickly under unusually favorable conditions this early in the hurricane season, though its activity has slightly decreased lately.

I do not expect this invest to develop into a tropical depression or storm. Despite it being over a relatively favorable environment at this time, it is important to note that historically in June, storms do not tend to form in the eastern Atlantic, let alone at unusually south latitudes (8-10N). With the invest approaching an area of higher wind shear, it only has a 10-18 hour time frame to become tropical before the wind shear prevents it from doing so, which is not enough time for this storm to intensify much.

Despite this invest being unlikely to develop, this does not automatically mean that this year's hurricane season will also be inactive. Historically, June is a month that is inactive, as activity tends to pick up in July and August. My hurricane season forecast will be posted either late this week or the upcoming weekend, with my forecast for this year's hurricane season.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

10:24 PM: Heavy thunderstorms, some strong, are currently approaching the northern parts of the area, and are slowly moving southeast. These storms should affect most of southern Connecticut and southeastern New York through tonight, bringing heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some of these storms have a history of producing rainfall amounts up to 1 inch.

11:10 PM: The storms appear to be training, or all moving in the same direction, in southern New York and Connecticut. This may lead to flash flooding across certain areas tonight, which have been highlighted in green in the small image to the left. Rainfall amounts reaching 1-2 inches are possible in these areas.

While rain is also possible in areas outside the highlighted areas on the map, those areas show where the best chance for heavy rainfall is.

Sunday Outlook:

As the warm front should stall around the area, tomorrow is not going to be a very comfortable day. A weak low pressure should stay near the area, leading to mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms. While no widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected due to the lack of supportive parameters, a few isolated storms may become strong, though the best chance for that should be to our south and west.

Meanwhile, temperatures are going to rise into the 80s across parts of the area. High temperatures should be in the lower to mid 80s for northern New Jersey and NYC, and some places may reach the upper 80s if there is enough sunshine. Humid conditions are also expected due to high dew points, making temperatures seem to be in the upper 80s. Due to an east to ENE wind, S CT and Long Island should stay colder, in the mid to upper 70s.

Next Week Overview:

There is still a model spread for next week, however some things are starting to become more consistent. A disturbance may move through the area during the middle of next week, either on Wednesday or Thursday, which if it does, it should bring the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures should stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s until then.

By late next week, it appears that much warmer temperatures should return to our area. High temperatures should start warming up well into the 80s on Thursday or Friday, and there is the potential for 90s to return again by next weekend.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Note: As I am unusually busy lately, I was unable to do an update yesterday, and may also not have enough time to make full updates every day until the end of next week. I will still try to update the blog during that time, though there may be some days that have short updates, or no updates at all.

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Both yesterday and today proved to be wet days across the area, with yesterday bringing 1/2 to 1 inch of rain across the area, and today bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms which brought 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain to some places, even bringing a severe thunderstorm to Connecticut. The next few days are going to continue with the warming trend, with high temperatures reaching the 80s by this weekend.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be mainly sunny, unlike today which was mainly cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s for northern New Jersey and southeastern New York, and in the mid 70s for NYC with a south wind. This south wind, however, will create colder temperatures for Long Island and southern Connecticut, which should stay in the mid to upper 60s.

With a high pressure in control, the rest of the Northeast and Mid Altantic should also be mainly sunny. The rest of the region should have high temperatures also in the 60s and 70s, with the main exception being Virginia, where a warmer air mass will lead to high temperatures in the 80s.

Weekend Forecast: Warm, Some StormsBy this weekend, a warm front should move through, bringing warmer temperatures. Saturday should be partly sunny with the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s.

On Sunday, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, locally reaching the lower 90s, though more clouds are expected along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. While there are some parameters for severe weather in place, there is not enough wind shear, and as a result, a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is not expected, though there might be some strong to severe thunderstorms if the parameters become more favorable.

Early Next Week OverviewAs the storms exit the area early next week, instead of significantly cooling down, the temperatures are expected to only slightly cool down, into the upper 70s to lower 80s. There is uncertainty on the time period afterwards, with the model solutions ranging from a chilly rain and highs in the 60s to sunny skies and highs in the 80s, so more details will come on this time period once there is less uncertainty.

6:10 PM Update: There are some thunderstorms currently affecting the area. The first area just moved through NE NJ and is headed SSE towards New York City and southern Brooklyn, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall with some thunder. This storm has a history of producing 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain in a short period of time.

The second storm is in eastern Long Island, also moving SSE. Another storm is about to enter central Long Island. Both storms are capable of producing heavy rainfall between 1/4 to 1/2 inch in a short period of time.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Areas of rain are currently falling across the area, as the latest radar image shows. So far, up to 1/4 inch of rain fell across the area, with periods of light to moderate rain currently falling.

While it may seem that the rain is approaching an end, the low pressure is expected to redevelop just off the coast later this evening, which should enhance the rainfall, especially in the immediate NYC area and places further south and east. Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain should continue until at least 12 AM, when the rain should start to weaken. Rain totals should end up between 1/2 and 3/4 inch, with locally higher amounts, especially east of NYC.

Today's update will be posted later tonight, including an update on this weekend's forecast and a look at the longer range.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

After another comfortable day today, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, things are about to change tomorrow. An approaching storm from our west is going to bring the risk of rain and some thunderstorms tomorrow night, producing locally heavy rainfall. Thursday and Friday should continue with the comfortable weather, though starting next weekend, uncertainty returns in the forecast.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

The approaching storm is going to bring mainly cloudy skies tomorrow, which should keep temperatures on the chilly side. High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 60s inland, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the area.

Periods of rain should start tomorrow afternoon, becoming locally heavy during the late afternoon and evening hours, which is when some thunder is also possible. The rain is expected to taper off late tomorrow night, bringing a total of 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain with locally higher amounts up to 1 inch.

Comfortable Conditions Return Late This Week

By Thursday, some leftover showers are possible in the morning, though the storm system is briefly going to draw in warmer temperatures, leading to Thursday's temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area except for the immediate coast, which should be in the lower to mid 70s. A few places near or SW of NYC may reach 80 degrees.

After the storm exits the region, a colder air mass is briefly going to return. As a result, Friday is going to be mainly sunny with high temperatures slightly colder, in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid 70s for the immediate NYC area.

Weekend To Early Week: Warmer, Stormy Conditions PossibleThings get much more complicated for this weekend. First of all, I am not using today's GFS runs for this time period, as they are outlier runs due to convective feedback issues. The GFS decides to take a small area of heavy rain in SE Texas, and brings it all the way to the Ohio Valley, then turns it southeast towards Virginia, which changes the entire pattern for this time period. The GFS only keeps this as a very weak low pressure, if even that, indicating that this is an error.

By Saturday, warmer conditions should return into the area, with high temperatures back into the lower 80s. Sunday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s. Note that there is still uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, which leads to a potential temperature range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

A cold front should then move through the area on Monday. There is some uncertainty with the exact timing, however if it moves through on Monday afternoon/evening, the potential for thunderstorms may be there. By Tuesday, another trough should move into the area, leading to colder high temperatures, back into the 70s.

Monday, June 7, 2010

After the very warm temperatures last week, which can actually be considered the first heat wave of the year as temperatures went over 90 degrees for 3 consecutive days in parts of the area, this week should be much more comfortable than last week, with high temperatures in the 70s and lower humidity. The week should also start out dry. There are indications, however, that more heat and storms may return starting next weekend.

Yesterday's Storms: Why The Forecast FailedLast week's severe weather events were unusually difficult to forecast. In the majority of the cases, despite the models indicating at least a slight risk for severe weather, there were very little, if any storms. In some cases, some hints on the models were shown that would lead to less severe weather than expected. In the other case, despite the models showing an unusually favorable set up for what could have been a very active day yesterday, the forecast ended up failing.

Despite the line seeming organized in Pennsylvania, thunderstorms ended up intensifying more in New England, as well as in the central Mid Atlantic, which significantly weakened the storms in between, which happened to be heading towards our area. In addition, the highest parameters shifted towards New England, and with the timing of the day being more supportive for New England than our area, that is where the majority of the severe weather ended up taking place.

Busts in severe weather are difficult to forecast and are usually only caught in the shorter range, which is why it is always important to keep an eye on the current observations, as even the days with the highest risk for severe weather may end up failing due to a last minute change.

Tomorrow's Outlook:Like today, tomorrow should be another sunny and comfortable day. Tomorrow morning should be unusually chilly, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland, in the lower to mid 50s for the NYC suburbs, in the mid to upper 50s for NYC, and in the lower to mid 50s for Long Island and southern CT. High temperatures should rise into the lower to mid 70s for the interior, S CT and Long Island, with the immediate NYC area in the mid 70s.

The region should also be mainly dry, with the only area seeing rain being New England. This is going to change by Wednesday, however, as the next storm approaches the area.

Mid To Late Week: Wet, Chilly

By Wednesday, the next storm should approach the area. The model solution were too suppressed at first, with the 00z GFS bringing the heaviest rain to southern Virginia, however the models have trended north since then, keeping our area in the northern edge of the moderate rainfall amounts. Wednesday should be slightly colder than tomorrow, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area except for the western parts of the area, which should be in the mid to upper 60s. Light to moderate rain should start in the afternoon, bringing up to 1/4 inch of rain.

For Wednesday Night, light to moderate periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected, which should bring additional rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain. This should bring the storm total to 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. Thursday should be mostly cloudy with an isolated shower or two ending in the morning, with high temperatures rising into the lower 70s except for Long Island and SE Connecticut, which should stay in the upper 60s due to cloud cover and rain.

As a warmer air mass to our southwest should begin to approach the area, Friday should be warmer, with high temperatures returning into the mid to upper 70s, along with mainly sunny skies.

Weekend To Early Next Week OutlookBy this weekend, things should get more interesting. The warmer air mass should be able to push into the area on Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures with high temperatures returning into the 80s, which is where they should be by this time of the year. Sunday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. There is uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, which would also determine how warm Monday gets, though there is the potential for high temperatures to reach the lower 90s again.

Meanwhile, there may also be a chance for thunderstorms. As the next cold front should approach, along with it comes the potential for thunderstorms early next week. As I previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty with this time period, so it's uncertain when the best chance for thunderstorms would be, though the possibility for storms early next week is there.