THE ZIA REGIME

When Zia assumed power in mid-1977, Pakistan was out of the limelight
and indeed was considered by some observers to be a political backwater.
By the time of Zia's death in 1988, it had, because of the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, become an important actor occupying a
central position in the world arena.

Although Zulifqar Ali Bhutto had tried to redirect Pakistan's
regional orientation toward West Asia and Zia continued this trend, the
nation's geostrategic interests dictated a concentration on South Asia.
Pakistan's foreign policy was very much centered on India. Less than two
years after Zia's assumption of power, Congress, led by Indira Gandhi,
was voted out of office and replaced by the Janata Party, whose foreign
minister was Atal Behari Vajpayee of the Jana Sangh, long seen as
anti-Pakistan. Nonetheless, relations between Pakistan and India may
have reached their most cordial level during the almost three years
Janata was in power. Vajpayee visited Pakistan in February 1978. There
were exchanges on many issues, and agreements were signed on trade,
cultural exchanges, and communications--but not on such key issues as
Kashmir and nuclear development.

The nuclear issue was of critical importance to both Pakistan and
India. In 1974 India successfully tested a nuclear "device."
Bhutto reacted strongly to this test and said Pakistan must develop its
own "Islamic bomb." Zia thus inherited a pledge that for
domestic reasons he could not discard, and he continued the development
program. He asked India to agree to several steps to end this potential
nuclear arms race on the subcontinent. One of these measures was the
simultaneous signing of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons. The second step was a joint agreement for inspection of all
nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Pakistan also
proposed a pact between the two countries to allow for mutual inspection
of sites. And, finally, Pakistan proposed a South Asian nuclear-free
zone. It appeared that Zia was looking for a way to terminate the costly
Pakistani program. But in order to sell this idea in Pakistan, he
required some concessions from India. Termination would also get him out
of difficulties the program was causing with the United States,
including the curtailment of aid in 1979. These proposals were still on
the table in the early 1990s, and were supplemented by then Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif's call for a roundtable discussion among Pakistan,
India, the United States, Russia, and China on nuclear weapons in South
Asia.

Not all relations within South Asia were negative. President Ziaur
Rahman of Bangladesh proposed an organization for South Asian
cooperation. Pakistan was at first reluctant, fearing Indian domination,
but eventually agreed to join the group, along with Bangladesh, Bhutan,
India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was formally inaugurated at a summit meeting in Dhaka in 1985.
There have been some positive steps toward cooperation, and regular
rotating summits are held, although often with some delays.

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi of India (1984-89) came to Islamabad in
1988 to attend a SAARC summit, the first visit of an Indian prime
minister since 1960, when Nehru visited to sign the Indus Waters Treaty.
Zia stopped briefly in New Delhi in December 1985 and in February 1987
visited again, having invited himself to see a cricket match between the
two countries. Zia's estimation was that he and Rajiv could meet quite
cordially but could not agree on substantive issues.

Active and potential conflict continued to be a constant factor in
Pakistan's relations with India. The dispute over the precise
demarcation of the Line of Control in Kashmir at the Siachen Glacier
heated up periodically and over time caused substantial casualties on
both sides because of numerous small skirmishes and the extreme cold in
the remote area. Also, in the 1986-87 winter the Indian army conducted
Operation Brass Tacks, maneuvers close to the Pakistan border, and
Pakistan mobilized its forces. However, the dangerous situation was
defused, and no hostilities took place. India accused Pakistan of aiding
Sikh insurgents in India's state of Punjab. Pakistan denied this
accusation, but some people thought that Operation Brass Tacks might
have been a means to strike at alleged bases in Pakistan's Punjab
Province. Zia skillfully handled the diplomacy during the period of
tension.

Zia continued the process, begun by Bhutto, of opening Pakistan to
the West and drew on Pakistan's Islamic, trade, and military ties to the
Middle East. Military ties included stationing Pakistani troops in Saudi
Arabia and training missions in several other countries. Remittances
from Pakistanis employed as migrant workers in the Middle East,
especially in the Persian Gulf area, increased during the Zia years and
became an important factor in Pakistan's foreign-exchange holdings.

Zia played a prominent role in the Organization of the Islamic
Conference (OIC). A Pakistani was secretary general of the OIC, and Zia
served on committees concerning the status of Jerusalem and the
settlement of the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), neither of which were
successful. At the 1984 summit at Casablanca, he played a key role in
the readmission of Egypt to the OIC and, in doing so, reminded his
fellow heads of government that the organization was one for the entire
Muslim community and not only for Arab states.

The United States under the administration of Jimmy Carter did not
welcome the displacement of Bhutto by Zia; representative government,
human rights, and nuclear nonproliferation were also of concern to
Carter. The execution of Bhutto only added to the United States
displeasure with Zia and Pakistan. In March 1979, Pakistan--and
Iran--terminated their membership in CENTO.

A number of United States laws, amendments to the Foreign Assistance
Act of 1961, applied to Pakistan and its program of nuclear weapons
development. The 1976 Symington Amendment stipulated that economic
assistance be terminated to any country that imported uranium enrichment
technology. The Glenn Amendment of 1977 similarly called for an end to
aid to countries that imported reprocessing technology--Pakistan had
from France. United States economic assistance, except for food aid, was
terminated under the Symington Amendment in April 1979. In 1985 the
Solarz Amendment was added to prohibit aid to countries that attempt to
import nuclear commodities from the United States. In the same year, the
Pressler Amendment was passed; referring specifically to Pakistan, it
said that if that nation possessed a nuclear device, aid would be
suspended. Many of these amendments could be waived if the president
declared that it was in the national interests of the United States to
continue assistance.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, causing a
sudden reversal of United States policy. Carter, who had described
Pakistan as a "frontline state" in the Cold War, offered
US$400 million in military and economic aid to Pakistan-- an amount that
Zia spurned and contemptuously termed "peanuts." When the
Ronald Reagan administration took office in January 1981, the level of
assistance increased substantially. Presidential waivers for several of
the amendments were required. The initial package from the United States
was for US$3.2 billion over six years, equally divided between economic
and military assistance. A separate arrangement was made for the
purchase of forty F-16 fighter aircraft. In 1986 a follow-on program of
assistance over a further period of six years was announced at a total
of more than US$4 billion, of which 57 percent was economic aid and the
rest military aid.

The Soviet Union, meanwhile, under its new leader, Mikhail S.
Gorbachev, was reassessing its role in Afghanistan. Indirect
"proximity" negotiations in Geneva under the auspices of the
UN were going on between Afghanistan and Pakistan with the United States
and the Soviet Union as observers. In April 1988, a series of agreements
were signed among the United States, the Soviet Union, Pakistan, and
Afghanistan that called for the withdrawal of Soviet forces by
mid-February 1989. The withdrawal was completed on time.

Throughout the years of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, relations
between the United States and Pakistan were best characterized by close
cooperation. Still, United States policy makers became increasingly
concerned that Zia and his associates- -most notably, General Akhtar
Abdur Rahman, then head of the Directorate for Inter-Services
Intelligence--appeared to give preferential treatment to the Islamic
fundamentalists, especially mujahidin leader Gulbaddin
Hikmatyar. Other disagreements persisted, particularly over the failure
of the Zia regime to convert to representative government. Documented
Pakistani violations of human rights were another major issue; Pakistani
involvement in narcotics trafficking was yet another. But the issue that
after Zia's death led to another cutoff of aid was Pakistan's persistent
drive toward nuclear development.

The event of the Zia period brought Pakistan to a leading position in
world affairs. However, Pakistan's new visibility was closely connected
to the supportive role it played for the anti- Soviet mujahidin
in Afghanistan--and this deceased when the Soviet Union withdrew from
Afghanistan. In the 1990s, Pakistan faced some major domestic
problems--mounting ethnic and sectarian strife as well as widespread
civil disorder. Pakistan will need to address these problems as it
strives to improve its international standing as a maturing democratic
nation and one aspiring to be the industrial and technological leader of
the Muslim world.