Statistical Probablities and Outcomes

I’ve never been good at statistics. I took AP stats in high school and I got a D. I have never been a D student. I was slightly traumatized. You would think I would learn from that and never take another Stats class my entire life. Nope. I told myself that I have an advantage and that the material was still fresh, so I took Stats my very first semester in college and got the same grade. Now, I did understand a lot of what was lectured in both classes. I just didn’t test well. So I understood that the probability of me taking a stats class and having a favorable outcome was slim. I opted to take a general math class to fulfill my college math requirements…and got an A.

I am not telling you this because I expect you to really care much about my college education or specific classes I took while in college. I do however expect that you watched “Grey’s Anatomy” this week. They have shows about preemies pretty regularly. Not quite as often as before Addison moved over to good ole “Private Practice.” I never really noticed this, it was all pure entertainment before I went into the hospital. Now when there is an episode about preemies, Kayvan looks at me and asks if I’m going to be okay. I typically respond with something to the effect of “Oh, I’m sure I’ll cry.” I’m usually right.

This week on Grey’s, a mom had to have heart surgery when she was 23 weeks pregnant, which means they had to deliver the baby. The characters on the show were were both residents at different hospitals and different states. When the dad showed up with his statistical calculator I didn’t want to cry. I got angry. Really angry. I hated those stupid statistics when my water broke. I mean, who likes to be told that their child might have a 50% chance of survival. NOT ME. I’m willing to bet, not anyone. The ridiculous part is, I understand why doctors rely on statistics. It gives them the general idea about a select audience that they can then apply to a larger subset. Fine.

There are also outliers. That’s what I was banking on my entire pregnancy. I’m not even sure I shared the 50% stat until Kam was born. I didn’t need others around me focusing on it. Of course, as I got further along, the stats got even better. Then I liked them.

When I watched Grey’s this week I wanted to reach through the TV screen and hug the preemie mom, Morgan when she gave baby daddy the boot. When you are fighting adversity, you don’t need crap weighing you down. Rally around positivity, be happy and optimistic. That is usually not an easy thing at all in a hard situation. It is absolutely okay to have days or moments where you are angry, or cry, or even throw cell phones across the room only to have nurse grab it before you can. (That may or may not have happened to me.) In my opinion, to be angry is to take the path of least resistance. To be optimistic is the harder road, the fighter’s road, the one of the person with hope ignoring the stupid statistics and seeking a positive outcome despite the odds weighing against them.