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Re: What changes are you expecting?

The obvious would be re-signing Roy Hibbert and George Hill. The price tags on both of these guys is starting to worry me. We really have no choice but to re-sign Hibbert so hopefully he doesn't spurn us. There might be a team crazy enough to throw max money at him. I think we'd match but I'm not sure you want to be giving him max money. Then George Hill, what is his worth? 7 mil? If we end up paying closer to 10, I will be disappointed. With people looking to trade picks, would signing and trading him be an option if he does get something like 10 mil a year? I'd feel comfortable getting another point guard to go with Collison if that's his going rate and we could salvage some cheaper pieces in return. And I don't think Dahntay Jones will opt out. I think I would prefer it if he did but I don't see it happening.

So what are some realistic moves you think are possible? Do you think the front office has it in them to make a big time deal? I know they're pretty loyal to the players but you have to cover every angle. If a crazy deal comes along, I'm willing to move anyone even if it's Granger or signing and trading Hibbert. There's a 99% chance nothing like that will happen but I'd like to see at least one big movie. Otherwise we'll just be returning the same roster with bigger paychecks and less depth. I'm fine with that because I think this team can get better but I could see us perma-stuck in the 2nd round/ecf for the foreseeable future.

I'm one of the biggest Granger fans and oppose the idea of trading him but with teams like the Warriors and Raptors shopping the 7th/8th pick for a wing player, what if they put together a package for Granger built around the draft pick and absorbing some of Granger's salary? We already have cap room but that would give us more and we could go out and sign Gordon, Mayo or Beasley in his place. Sparing cap room to sign a younger player and getting a lotto pick? That wouldn't be too bad.

Anyways... just curious what everyone thinks we'll do.

"I have never taken the high road, but I tell other people to ’cause then there’s more room for me on the low road."

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Re: What changes are you expecting?

Either DC or GHill will move on. I think it depends on how much George demands in the market. If they resign George I expect them to try to move DC. I think Roy is the only other free agent that will return unless Lou is signed for a small contract.

My big fear is that Roy gets some max offer and the Pacers decline to match... ala Brad Miller style.

Re: What changes are you expecting?

What I want to happen use the cap space we have to sign either nash or williams and hopefully hibbert gives us some sort of hometown discount use the draft pick you have to get some backup center since this draft is loaded with bigs. I honestly fear over the next few years being the atlanta hawks just good enough to make a run in the playoffs but not good enough to really compete for a championship. I really could care less if we pull of some sort of deal to get us into the lottery unless it's some sort of no-brainer type trade that allows us to get there.

Re: What changes are you expecting?

I expect us to match any offer for Roy unless a team goes max, even then I wouldn't be surprised if we matched it.

I don't think Hill and DC will be our pg tandem, whether that means us signing a pg and moving Hill to the backup sg or one of them goes elsewhere. I don't think Barbosa will be retained, if Lance has a good summer he could take Barbosa's role. Could also see us going after another player like Barbosa if they are available, a guy like Jamal Crawford if he doesn't stay in Portland or something.

I think and hope we will draft Royce White if we keep our pick. If we can manage to move into the lottery I hope we can get our hands on Perry Jones III, although I think it's unlikely we make that kind of move. If we do make any moves in the draft I'm guessing it will be for another veteran guy like last year's George Hill trade.

Re: What changes are you expecting?

I think we'll want to keep the starters together, so that means re-signing Hibbert and probably Hill, and not trading Granger.

I hope we get another David West-type FA, preferably a starting PG, which would make Hill the 6th man.

I think we'll shop Collison and Hansbrough and possibly the pick too in a package that either looks to make our bench better, or cheaper. You hope for both better and cheaper of course, but it doesn't usually work out that way. The "cheaper" part is important because 1) Collison and Hans are both in the last years of their rookie deals; and 2) We're about to lock in some long term contracts, starting with Hibbert, with hopefully a starting PG from FA, and Hill. So we'll need to save money on the bench, and that means Collison and Hans are likely casualties next year anyway if we don't move them.

I don't think Barbosa will be back, simply because he'll get better offers than what we should be willing to pay. Amundson is a possibility to return, I'm thinking he's a candidate for our $2.5m room exception. But again if he gets offered more, then he's out too. Price might return if Collison does get moved.

Re: What changes are you expecting?

. . . I don't think Barbosa will be back, simply because he'll get better offers than what we should be willing to pay. Amundson is a possibility to return, I'm thinking he's a candidate for our $2.5m room exception. But again if he gets offered more, then he's out too. Price might return if Collison does get moved.

Will the Pacers have a 'room' exception? Shouldn't they get the 'non-taxpayer' MLE? since the Pacers will not be going over the luxury tax level, much less the apron.

Re: What changes are you expecting?

Will the Pacers have a 'room' exception? Shouldn't they get the 'non-taxpayer' MLE? since the Pacers will not be going over the luxury tax level, much less the apron.

Well, we're expecting to have cap space, so normally that means no MLE. Or to be more technically exact, we'll waive our non-taxpayer MLE in order to make full use of cap space. Exceptions take up cap space until waived, except for the room exception.

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Re: What changes are you expecting?

I think that we do something with either DC or Tyler, or trade them both. If we trade one of them, it will be for a pick, and if we trade them both, it will be packaged with our first for a pretty good player who would fill one of our needs. So either we get two prospects and keep one of DC and Tyler, or we get a player of high talent. Players of high talent potentially available here are by guess are Anderson Varejao or Paul Milsap. If we don't pull off a trade, I think we go after Carl Landry or Brandon Bass in free agency. If we have the money, we go after Kris Humphries...

I think before everything in free agency we go after Nash. If we don't get him, we get a veteran point guard like Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, or Jason Kidd for cheap with hopes of good production.

We re-sign (There you go BillS :P) Hill and Hibbert. We don't re-sign Barbosa, AJ, or Lou. Lance has a big role next year, and hopefully as a full time shooting guard with honed skills he starts to show his talent.

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Re: What changes are you expecting?

It's hard to have concrete expectations with so many possibilities in front of us.

First of all, we don't even know if our front office will be here in a month. But for the sake of discussion I'll assume they will return (Bird/Morway).

I think Shaw gets hired to head coach, and someone will be brought in to replace him.
I think Barbosa and Amundson will only be back if other plans don't work out.
I think Fesenko will be re-signed.
I think Roy will be re-signed for less than the max, but still a lot.
I think if Hill is brought back, it will be for about $7m a year. Much more than that, and he's out.
I thought we'd go after Nash or someone else clearly better than Hill or DC, but after hearing Grady and Wells I tend to doubt it (but then again, that's just their opinion; maybe the F.O. disagrees and will still pursue someone bigger/better for the staring 1). I would think that if someone foolishly plays Hill 8+ million a year to play somewhere else, this becomes more likely.

I think Paul George and Roy Hibbert will be better players next year than they were this year. I'm suspicious of the same for Lance Stephenson, but I don't hold high hopes with him.

Before I move on, I need to think about who I could imagine giving Hill 8 million a year.

The tax teams for 12-13 are Lakers and Heat, so they're automatically out. Next are teams already at or over the cap (or very close) and therefore cannot offer such a high offer to Hill: (I'm assuming the cap is going to be about $58m) Mavericks (only $4m under), Grizzlies, Hawks, Bulls, Magic, Sixers, Pistons, Clippers (basically right at the cap), Knicks, Bucks (right at cap), Thunder, Nuggets ($1m under), Jazz (about $5.5m under), Timberwolves.

Of those teams, the following have $8m+ trade exceptions to theoretically use to get Hill for that kind of a number (though this would have to be a sign and trade we'd have to agree to, obviously): Lakers ($8.9m), Jazz ($10.9m). I'm not sure if or when those expire(d), so they may no longer be valid. I think they are, but I forget the rules here so I won't claim to know for sure.

Could either the Lakers or Jazz be interested in Hill? Maybe. For $8m+ ? I dunno about that. Certainly not a definite "YES" in either case, I don't believe.

Celtics: That's before re-signing Garnett and/or Allen, but even still I don't see them paying Hill $8m to backup Rondo. Espeically with Avery Bradley around, who is similar to Hill.

Spurs: While there's mutual love here, they need to re-sign Duncan, they may want Diaw back, and of course Tony Parker is the starter. I'm sure they'd be open to his return, but odds are they won't pay him $8m to replace Gary Neal (who will cost much less).

Blazers: This is one of the real threats. Plenty of space, I highly doubt they want Felton back, they were looking for a consistent starter, and Crawford's gone, too (most likely). If they think Hill is worth $8m+ to be their starter, he's probably gone unless George just wants no part of that franchise.

Hornets: Likely to use a good amount of that on Eric Gordon's new contract, plus Kaman and Landry are free agents. I think with Anthony Davis coming in, assuming they see him as a center, they'll probably go with Davis and Okafor at the 5, so Kaman will probably leave, but they may still want Landry back. I haven't done the math on Gordon's new potential deal, but I'm assuming it will still leave around $8m or so to go. Jarrett Jack is coming back at $5.4m, and he was a solid starter for them last year. Greivis Vasquez is also returning. I don't see Hill as the right guy at the right time for them; certainly not at that high of a price tag. I doubt they get him.

Suns: Obviously a huge part of this is what happens with Steve Nash. I've been assuming he's leaving. They would have the money and the starting role to offer to George, so put them down as a threat. Like Portland, it would largely depend also on if Hill would be satisfied being overpaid to play for a losing team. Maybe he is.

Nets: Again the obvious being what happens with Deron Williams. If they trade for Dwight they'll keep him, too, and this will be moot. If he does leave, they would be a similar threat as Phoenix.

Bobcats: They'll have the room, and I didn't think they were too high on D.J. Augustin. But even stilll, they also have Kemba Walker coming back, and I have a hard time seeing them offering George $8m to share that space with Kemba.

Rockets: You'd think at least one of Lowry and Dragic is returning to start for them, and I'm skeptical of them overspending for Hill to be their backup.

Warriors: I don't think Curry's going anywhere, so it's the same deal: They won't overpay for a backup PG.

Wizards: Same as Warriors only with Wall.

Raptors: Calderon is coming back unless traded, Nash is a dark horse to go there, and they have Jarryd Bayless. Never say never, but they're not high on my list of teams that concern me in this scenario.

Kings: Evans is no longer their PG (and they won't be extending him this summer, either, so they can't be too high on him right now), Jimmer was questionable, and Isaiah Thomas was their starting PG at the end of the year. Hill would probably do them some good. So put them down as another threat.

So let's refresh who the apparent threats are IMO:

Portland, probably Phoenix, maybe Brooklyn, Sacramento.

Are any of them primed to be a winning team soon? Probably not, and I think winning does matter to George. I also believe he likes being in Indiana, likes this organization/staff/roster, and knows we're in a good position to be in the thick of the playoffs again over the next few years.

So do I think he'll leave all of that for one of the above teams for an extra 1 or maybe 1.5m a year more per year? Eh, maybe. But I tend to doubt it, so for now I'm going to assume he comes back for about $7 a year, which is about as high as I can see us going. If I'm wrong, oh well.

This is assuming DC and/or Tyler does not get traded. I have no idea if they will be or not. I know if I were the GM I'd be trying to see what they might net me, at the very least, to see if I like the potential new roster better than this one, but I can't say with any certainty that either is going to be out soon. I wouldn't be shocked either way, really.

But if we're going to trade someone, it's probably going to be one of those two.

Then we have the 26th pick. Seems logical to be on the lookout for a draft night deal involving this pick and perhaps DC and/or Tyler for another veteran to bring off the bench, but again you just never know.

And then lastly we're looking at about $20m-ish in cap space if they sign their rookie and before Roy and Hill are addressed. A spit-ball number is that those two will take up almost all of that, maybe $12m for Roy and $7m for Hill. Maybe a little more. But we could still add a piece first, in theory, by acting swiftly to get an outsider signed on the dotted line and then re-signing Hibbert and George afterwards. I just don't know where our front office's heads are at on that front. I don't know how much Simon will let them spend, I don't know if they're thinking of pursuing a big fish or just a small to moderate sized fish. It's just impossible for me to say.

So I feel pretty good about saying I think Hilll, George, Stephenson, Granger, Jones, West, Hibbert, and Fesenko will be back, but past that I can only wait and see how the next month and three quarters plays out.

Before I move on, I need to think about who I could imagine giving Hill 8 million a year.

Wanted to thank you again for your analysis. I was curious, but too lazy to do it. My initial reaction is no one will be interested in playing hill more than the non-taxpayer MLE. ie $5M. So I am not worried about that myself. Even more so with your list.

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Re: What changes are you expecting?

I'd guess that we'll take a run at Carl Landry, OJ Mayo, and one of the Rockets PGs... Barbosa is almost 100% assuredly gone, and my gut instinct is that we'll see an offer for Hill that we won't match (as we did a few years ago with Jarrett Jack).

Hibbert definitely gets re-signed, without question. Landry is an emerging strong post player, who could play alongside Hibbert now that his defense is emerging as a strength. Lou will be groomed into a Foster-lite...

No shot we get Nash or Williams.

I actually wonder I'd Boston will just blow up the team this offseason and reload with draft picks and young talent to groom. I wouldn't be surprised if they moved Rondo.