Tuesday, December 11, 2012

The Diamondbacks announced that they have acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius, left-handed pitcher Tony Sipp, and first baseman Lars Anderson from the Indians in exchange for right-handed pitchers Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw. The Reds are receiving Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald in the swap.

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Concur, almost 11 K/9 and a low 2's ERA across AA/AAA should help your status.

He had 16 ugly innings in the bigs, but, it's 16 IP.

I can see the issues with control, but he still showed he can strike out big leaguers. You would have to think that a 21 year old who was talented enough to move that quickly from college to the pros could figure out how to keep the walks down to a respectable level.

Dave Cameron really hates Trevor Bauer for reasons I don't quite understand. I get the feeling he spoke to someone in the D-Backs org that convinced him Bauer is an asshat and not that good anyway. He needs to work on his command, but his walk rate isn't that ugly for a young pitcher. As for being an asshat...the D-Backs sure tar a lot of their own players with that brush. It is kind of weird.

There are 31 MLB starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings this year and posted a GB% below 40%. As a group, they’ve combined to allow 1.19 HR/9 compared to a league average of 1.01. There are some good pitchers in this group, including guys like Justin Verlander, Johan Santana, Jered Weaver, and Dan Haren. Certainly, you can be a good pitcher and a fly ball pitcher at the same time. But those four all throw strikes, and a lot of them – Bauer hasn’t shown he can do that yet. From A-ball all the way up, he’s walked at least 10% of the batters he’s faced, and if you’re looking for bad command fly ball success stories, the list gets a lot shorter. There’s Max Scherzer, for one. And yeah, well, that’s about it among current starters.

Towers seems like a good GM, but I don't get this trade. Bauer was a bit of a letdown in his MLB stint, but he's still only 21, and it's not like the D-Backs are in flat-out "win-now" mode. And Lars Anderson plays 1B where he's blocked by Goldschmidt.

It doesn't help your GM when the owner keeps flapping his mouth to the press and calling out players as lazy malcontent bums.

I didn't expect wonders from Towers but expected him to hover around average to slightly below, however add in owners who are meddlers and baseball dumb is a recipe for the current roster mess.

This trade and the Myers one illustrate that you don't trade a guy based on what you think of him, you trade him based on what the rest of the market thinks of him. Who cares if you think Bauer is a snotty little kid or Myers has a huge hole in his swing and "can't hit sliders", the rest of the baseball world views them as top prospects. Price them accordingly, or set no price and let the market come to you. Both these trades smell like they were initiated by the prospect trading team - Towers and Moore calling up other teams and saying "Hey, we need a shortstop/SP, and we're willing to move Bauer/Myers. Whatcha got?". The returns just seem way too low otherwise - I don't imagine any team really would have thought, even after the D'Backs badmouthing Bauer near the end of the season, that they could have called them up, offered a bucket of slop, and still got the guy.

This trade and the Myers one illustrate that you don't trade a guy based on what you think of him, you trade him based on what the rest of the market thinks of him. Who cares if you think Bauer is a snotty little kid or Myers has a huge hole in his swing and "can't hit sliders", the rest of the baseball world views them as top prospects.

Alternately one might conclude that the rest of the baseball world does not view them as top prospects like those of us outside the baseball world do, given that none of the rest of the baseball world was willing to top the offers the Dbacks and Royals got.

Again, I sometimes agree with Cameron, sometimes disagree, etc., but I don't get his logic about this at all. I think he has some kind of personal revulsion for Bauer.

Of course, there’s also a pretty good chance that Bauer will eventually figure out how to throw more strikes, and turning into a Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson, or Chad Billingsley in the long term would still make this a great trade for an Indians team that has time to wait for him to develop. But, we should at least note that pitchers with these kinds of early career skillsets don’t always figure out how to throw strikes, and they often need a few more years of struggles before they make the necessary adjustments. It’s a risk worth taking for the Indians, but for Arizona, the decision to trade Bauer away isn’t totally unjustified.

That's his closing argument and I would counter that there is just as much, if not more risk, that Gregorius doesn't turn out to be as good as Cliff Pennington.

If the Padres wouldn't pay for Stephen Drew, and maybe wouldn't pay for Jered Weaver, why not take Justin Verlander with the top pick?

A bit off topic, but related somewhat, Nick Piecoro recently ruminated on the Dbacks' (or Kevin Towers's/Kirk Gibson's) player profile:

Since General Manager Kevin Towers, manager Kirk Gibson and scouting director Ray Montgomery have come aboard, the Diamondbacks have become fairly specific in the type of guys they want – and the type of guys they don’t want.

They want athletes. They want solid defenders. They want players who can run and who play the game aggressively. They want guys who don’t swing and miss too much. They want guys with good make-up and good character, guys who are grinders, guys who are heady.

Ultimately, they want players who can play the Kirk Gibson Brand of Baseball....

“Ten out of 10 times,” Montgomery said, “I’m going to take my chances on an athlete in the middle of the field — and if he doesn’t stick in the middle of the field, then he has to move to a corner — rather than a guy who starts on a corner and has little to fall back on.”

We don’t know yet if the Diamondbacks will be successful in the long run with this philosophy. They might wind up overlooking future stars because they don’t fit a certain profile. But you probably can safely assume that in a few years, when these guys start graduating to the majors, they’ll be better equipped to play Gibson’s brand of ball.

This trade, and several other Towers trades and, maybe, the 2004 Matt Bush pick, seem very much aligned with what Nick wrote about.

[109] Alternately one might conclude that the rest of the baseball world does not view them as top prospects like those of us outside the baseball world do, given that none of the rest of the baseball world was willing to top the offers the Dbacks and Royals got.

Since General Manager Kevin Towers, manager Kirk Gibson and scouting director Ray Montgomery have come aboard, the Diamondbacks have become fairly specific in the type of guys they want – and the type of guys they don’t want.

They want athletes. They want solid defenders. They want players who can run and who play the game aggressively. They want guys who don’t swing and miss too much. They want guys with good make-up and good character, guys who are grinders, guys who are heady.

Ultimately, they want players who can play the Kirk Gibson Brand of Baseball....

“Ten out of 10 times,” Montgomery said, “I’m going to take my chances on an athlete in the middle of the field — and if he doesn’t stick in the middle of the field, then he has to move to a corner — rather than a guy who starts on a corner and has little to fall back on.”

We don’t know yet if the Diamondbacks will be successful in the long run with this philosophy. They might wind up overlooking future stars because they don’t fit a certain profile. But you probably can safely assume that in a few years, when these guys start graduating to the majors, they’ll be better equipped to play Gibson’s brand of ball.

This seems like a recipe for having a team where nobody can hit worth a damn.

I always laugh when GMs and Managers wax poetic about those types of players. It's not like anyone ever says: "I want a bunch of lazy guys who eat donuts all day and are a pain in the ass." The reason why there are actual players in MLB who are in the ballpark of such a description is because their other abilities make up for his deficiencies in those areas.

As for strikeouts for hitters, while they are obviously not a good thing, they do tend to have significant correlation with several things that are good things. Cutting down on strikeouts is great, but if you cut down on home runs and walks at the same time, you've probably at best achieved nothing and at worst significantly harmed your team.

“I’m going to take my chances on an athlete in the middle of the field — and if he doesn’t stick in the middle of the field, then he has to move to a corner — rather than a guy who starts on a corner and has little to fall back on.

This too is nothing new and is a philosophy employed by every team. Most guys start out as middle of the field players then move down the spectrum as they prove they can't handle it defensively. That's only a problem if you pass over the fat tubs of goo who can actually hit.

As to the origins of the trade and the value of Bauer ... this looks to me more like the Reds and Indians were trying to find a deal for Choo but Cincy didn't have what the Indians were looking for. One of those guys had the bright idea of including AZ, knowing they were looking to move Bauer and were possibly stunned at how little Towers wanted in return.

Or the simplest "explanation" -- AZ scouts fell in love with Gregorius (also a good name for an evil monk on Buffy).

127: They've been trying to trade Kubel the entire offseason. Problem is, they are not finding much of a market for him. Even though Kubel hit 30 home runs and is owed $7.5M next year, he has limitations in the fielding and baserunning department which greatly reduce his value. Word is the Dbacks were trying to trade him to the Reds, before the Reds resigned Ludwick and turned their attention to Choo. Won't be surprised if the Dbacks had been peddling Kubel for Gregorius - which, mind you, would have been a perfectly cromulent trade for them, and likely a steal if Gregorius ever figured out what to do with a bat (baseball-wise, that is). But the Dbacks are looking to find more playing time for Parra and Eaton (as they should), and with Upton seemingly staying, I think Kubel is as good as gone this winter.

It's not like anyone ever says: "I want a bunch of lazy guys who eat donuts all day and are a pain in the ass."

So THATS why I never got drafted ?

Was that Ken Kendrick, same guy from your link #24 who called out Bauer?

Yes. This happened in early June, 10 1/2 months after Drew suffered a gruesome broken ankle in which he had to put it back in place himself while lying in agony at home plate.

I'm going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly. I, for one, am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary... All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity. Frankly, we have our concerns.

Alternately one might conclude that the rest of the baseball world does not view them as top prospects like those of us outside the baseball world do, given that none of the rest of the baseball world was willing to top the offers the Dbacks and Royals got.

We can't be sure the rest of the baseball world knew these deals were going down and chose not to bid - I don't imagine teams canvas every other of the 29 teams out there before they make a move. They decide on a handful of guys they want/would accept and go after them. But either way, if the rest of the baseball world doesn't consider Myers and Bauer to be top prospects, then there simply are no top prospects out there, because these guys are among the very very best of what exists right now. I don't think any of us would argue that's the case. I don't care how many "holes in his swing" Myers has, or how snotty Bauer's nose is, they both performed, and at an extremely high level. If these guys aren't top prospects, who is?

127: They've been trying to trade Kubel the entire offseason. Problem is, they are not finding much of a market for him. Even though Kubel hit 30 home runs and is owed $7.5M next year, he has limitations in the fielding and baserunning department which greatly reduce his value. Word is the Dbacks were trying to trade him to the Reds, before the Reds resigned Ludwick and turned their attention to Choo. Won't be surprised if the Dbacks had been peddling Kubel for Gregorius - which, mind you, would have been a perfectly cromulent trade for them, and likely a steal if Gregorius ever figured out what to do with a bat (baseball-wise, that is). But the Dbacks are looking to find more playing time for Parra and Eaton (as they should), and with Upton seemingly staying, I think Kubel is as good as gone this winter.

If he was RH, Kubel would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. Decent hitter for a small RF and DH, that only has a '13 committment.

I think Myers was probably ascribed more value by outsiders than he was by teams. I'm more doubtful that Bauer was. Towers was obsessively specific about what he wanted and I think he brought up Bauer for Gregorius (to the Reds).

Has Dave Cameron ever been right about anything? I ask this in all sincerity - does anyone have an example of a prediction he made that came true, or an analysis that was validated by subsequent events?

This reaching back real far, but I remember Dave Cameron writing an article for BP about what a great and underrated prospect David Wright was. This was 10 years ago, probably when Wright was in the Sally League.

[109] Alternately one might conclude that the rest of the baseball world does not view them as top prospects like those of us outside the baseball world do, given that none of the rest of the baseball world was willing to top the offers the Dbacks and Royals got.

DING DING DING

So the Twins obviously think that Denard Span is worthless or that Alex Meyer is a top notch prospect. Teams never make suboptimal decisions! It's ok JC you can come back, we're ready to embrace you as the genius you are.

I don't think that's true. There was the whole "put a Milo on him" thing where they were eliminating anyone that had questions about commitment, work ethic, etc. The A's, with that limited budget and dependence on homegrown players, didn't feel that they could afford to pick risky character guys. They, at least at the time of the 2002 draft, generally rejected the notion of "good body type" but someone being lazy or a pain in the ass was earning them a Milo.

no - in fact i agree that the outsider community likes myers (for example) a bit more than those in baseball likely do. we also view shields/etc... differently, likely make different (and not that either is necessarily wrong) assumptions how to discount future wins, etc...

my guess:
the myers offer was a relatively competitive one - given that i'm quite sure the bb industry values shields more than most statdorks do. i love it for tb and don't like it for kc.
the bauer deal probably wasn't - this is not a good haul for arizona. the long toss / particularness in bauer's personality is something teams likely care more about than we do and i do think there's something to cameron's concern about bauer's so-so command and high flyball rate. (i'd still have trevor on my team in a heartbeat, mind you). i thought didi was interesting - sure - but i've yet to see anybody, in any venue, defend this deal for the snakes. imo, they were hosed.

i do suspect that the twins view meyer highly, yeah. that's not a crazy deal for them - though i definitely give the win to dc - meyer has a pretty high ceiling and the twins's rep is that they're a lot better at drafting bats than arms, they'll need to add some somehow and span wasn't gonna be on the next good minnesota ballclub.

Seems like a good GM? You have no idea how hard my good friend had to work to free this organization of all the talent Josh Byrnes and Jerry Dipoto had piled up, stinking up the place.

Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Jarrod Parker, Ryan Roberts, Ryan Cook, and Bauer and Shaw are just the start. We still have to get rid of the fancy pants "players" brought in by Byrnes/Dipoto, Next will be Upton, Parra, Hudson, Kennedy, Goldscmidt, Collmentor, Miley, and those punks Skaggs and Corbin. When KT is done getting rd of the old regimes mistakes, we will finally build a Kurt Gibson team, full of guys who run hard even when they don't know why or where they are going, and if a brick wall gets in their way, we'll get more guys.

We already brought in real baseball players who dress, stand, and talk baseball like real players who show up for the bus every day, say yes sir, and steal every base or get caught trying. Gamers like Kubel, whose uniform is so spattered before the game you'd think he ate a dozen hotdogs, when he only ate a half dozen, and rarely puke while chasing a single into a double.

You nerds and your slide-rules ay think we lost value in this trade, that Bauer was some amazing prospect. But, no one wanted to pay up for him, so what could we do, keep him? And watch Mr. SnotNose LongTossPants confuse some arbitrator with all his "strikeouts" so we have to pay the long hair millions to go 12-12 with a 3.4 ERA over 220 innings for one of our 60 win teams? Hell no, the only pot smoking millionaire allowed in this organization s gonna be KT himself, and Mr. KK whenever he taps into our secret stash.

Now excuse me, KT and I are finishing a bowl to chortle over secret weapon of this trade, Lars Anderson, or as he will soon be known, the next Mark McGwire!

found this at a random DBacks blog, but their analysis (at the time) seems pretty fair regarding KT's trade history:

It's clear that Towers has an outstanding trading record. His most famous trade is the acquisition of 1B Adrian Gonzalez and P Chris Young for pitchers Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. But going all the way back to 1996, his acquisition of players like Greg Vaughn and Kevin Brown were instrumental in the Padres' first World Series run. Later in his career, his key moves were in the bullpen, acquiring pitchers like Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Mike Adams, and Luke Gregerson for little in return. Over his entire career, there were very few trades that turned out badly for Towers. One was the acquisition of Randy Myers, which was really a Waiver Claim rather than a trade. The Padres put in a Waivers claim on Myers to block him from going to the Braves, only to get stuck with Myers and the $12M left on his contract. Other than that, the only trades that were clearly a negative were sending away Woody Williams for Ray Lankford, and the Jason Bay-Brian Giles deal. Even then, Giles had a few very good seasons for the Padres.

Of course, this was written right before he took over in Arizona, so maybe his recent deals have totally ruined his record, or maybe it's still too early to tell. I guess I'm trying to make the Diamondback fans on this site feel a little better.

edit: claiming that those prospects we're valued less by the rest of baseball that is

They may well be, but, if this was all you could get for Myers and Bauer, you keep them.

Bad GMs often make mistakes b/c they act based on "I have to get a SS", or, "I have to get rid of X". That very mindset drives a suboptimal outcome, especially since other GMs can sense it.

Or, in cases like this, the shitty organizations broadcast that they don't like a prospect that much. If you hate a guy and want to trade him, you should be praising his ass to every freelance blogger who'll listen.

They may well be, but, if this was all you could get for Myers and Bauer, you keep them.

I mean to say "crispix and petunia are, right?" in reference to claim that no one was saying other teams valued myers and bauer less. I doubt the Rays valued Myers lower, but just used his perceived value against the Royals.

I think the key lesson here is that when a team demands trade return in a very specific shape and puts itself in a position where it HAS to make a move by trading away certain players they are not likely to get fair value. Remember the Beltran trade? KC had very specific demands and took less talent as a whole to get that return.

Would Alcides Escobar for Trevor Bauer had been a fair deal? I'm just trying to figure how the Royals could have added pitching without giving up Myers or any other big pieces. Even Wil Myers and Alcides Escobar for Trevor Bauer + Chris Young seems fairer than what the Royals and D-Backs got.

i thought towers in sd was a mixed bag, but a solid horse trader. haven't seen much i like from him in arizona yet.

ag#1f: had arizona done that, i (for one) would've though arizona was selling low, but that it was a not unreasonable deal. mind you, that's absent the pennington deal.
between alcides and bauer, i take bauer.

148 - that's certainly part of it, in all likelihood.

145 - i'm with you in theory, but that's 'cause my valuation of shields and myers probably isn't that far from yours. reasonable people can disagree here (particularly w/ the less known commodity).
also, i think people here were undervaluing shields durability (game to game and within games - the marginal innings that are getting picked up aren't all by the #3 reliever) - while i'd guess that the baseball world isn't discounting the possibility that he'll fail to stay so healthy enough / park and defense effects that gave him the value he had in tampa.

They may well be, but, if this was all you could get for Myers and Bauer, you keep them.

But what if you think that they could drop in value below what you are able to receive if you trade them now, like "I think he is an A- right now, but all I can get is value equal to a B, but based on our internal info we expect him to drop to a C+ by the end of the year" Along the lines of it is better to trade a guy a year too early opposed to a year too late.

Bob Nightengale talked to the Dbacks front office, got a job as their henchman to continue the character assassination of Trevor Bauer. I am only surprised he didn't do a podcast with Ken Kendrick, so we can find out how the Dbacks REALLY feel about Trevor Bauer. Link.

Bauer had to go because some idiot drafted him without realizing what a headcase he was.

Actually, I believe Dipoto was a major proponent for drafting Bauer, but Towers was fully onboard. Am too lazy to go looking for articles from the time he was drafted (Nick Piecoro at AZ Central had great coverage before and after the draft), but Towers was impressed with Bauer and at least at the time said all the right things about wanting him in the organization. Bauer mentioned after signing that the Dbacks had promised him to let him continue his unusual routine.

It's possible that Towers never liked Bauer, and drafted him because Dipoto insisted on it (with Towers getting his guy in Archie Bradley at #7). Once Dipoto was gone, Towers couldn't wait to get rid of Bauer. It's possible Towers was OK with Bauer, but also had a deal with Dipoto that Dipoto would manage Bauer's development to the majors. Or it's possible Towers felt he could quickly beat the nonsensical approach to pitching out of Bauer once Bauer has been signed.

It's probably a combination of all this. There were rumors that Dipoto and Towers strongly disagreed about when and how to bring up Bauer to the majors. There were all the innuendos by Towers that Bauer needed to stop the long toss "nonsense" and start pitching like a regular guy. There were all the thinly veiled threats by Towers that Bauer was an employee of the Dbacks and should do what his employer told him to do. Then there was the trade, basically a talent dump.

Anyhow, that's water under the bridge. Kevin Towers just acquired a guy who reminds him of a young Derek Jeter, apparently. I think that tells us all we need to know about Kevin Towers.