Seasonal Influenza is a respiratory infection caused by influenza virus that results in mild to severe symptoms, such as fever, cold and cough. Vaccination has been shown to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality and high economic burden associated with influenza illness. GlobalData’s epidemiologists expect seasonal influenza vaccination coverage rates for all countries but the UK and China to remain constant on average throughout the forecast period. Vaccine demand for all nine countries, on the other hand, is forecast to increase in the next decade. Overall, the US is projected to have the largest vaccine demand in the next decade at over 158 million, followed by Japan’s 37.4 million, whereas Spain is expected to have the lowest demand at just over eight million. Annual growth in vaccine demand for the next 10 years is highest in India (2.10%) and the UK (1.38%) and lowest in Japan (0.42%) and Germany (0.26%). By 2022, the US will have the highest vaccination coverage rate (46.1%) and India and China the lowest (both at 1.7%). Vaccine demand is expected to increase across all nine markets, even in countries where vaccination coverage rates remain stable. This increase is mostly due to population growth, especially growth in the elderly age group.

It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of seasonal influenza vaccination coverage segmented by age (0–4 years, 5–64 years, and =65 years) in these nine markets.

Reasons to buy

This forecast is supported by at least 10 years of historical data sourced mostly from government reports and country-specific studies published by peer-reviewed journals.

A major strength of the analysis is the consideration of a comprehensive list of factors such as policy, historical and current events, such as the H1N1 pandemic, cultural perception, economic situations, and population growth in forecasting trends.

Forecast methodology is consistent across all nine markets, thereby allowing for a meaningful comparison of the nine markets.