Sunday, March 07, 2010

There won't be any bids stolen out of the MVC. Wichita State led Northern Iowa by three at the half, but the top-seeded Panthers found their shooting stroke in the second half and pulled away for a 67-52 win over the Shockers in St. Louis. Kwadzo Ahelegbe scored 24 points and Jake Koch added 13 for UNI, who have now made the tournament five of the last seven years. They'll be a single-digit seed this time around, and will likely be on the 8 line in our bracket tomorrow.

Florida will now have to secure their bid in the SEC tournament. The Gators trailed by as many as 18 points late in the first half and lost to Kentucky 74-66 Saturday at Rupp Arena. The Gators shot just 4-of-15 from three, leading scorer Erving Walker was 3-of-15 from the field, and Chandler Parsons was held to just nine points. The Wildcats, on the other hand, had a very balanced attack, with five players in double figures and their bench leading the way with 48 points. They are now an absolute lock for a 1 seed. Florida will still be in the bracket tonight, but they need to win two games in the SEC tourney, against Auburn and Mississippi State, to avoid sweating out Championship Week and Selection Sunday. One SEC win might be enough, but that's a risk they won't want to take.

Wisconsin got its revenge on Illinois on Saturday, and they may have punched them a ticket to the NIT in the process. The llini have now lost three in a row and five of six overall, and their 72-57 blowout loss - at home - to the Badgers on Saturday is certainly not the impression they wanted to give the committee heading into the Big Ten tourney. The Illini have three Top 25 wins to their credit, which is impressive, but they will end up with 14 losses and an RPI in the 70s. They will likely fall out of tonight's bracket, since we aren't too confident that they will be able to beat the Badgers on a neutral court this week in their first game of the Big Ten tournament. They might also need more than one win to secure a bid, given their poor computer numbers and their struggles down the stretch.

Old Dominion came real close to being the ultimate bubble team, but they rallied to beat VCU in overtime on Saturday to advance to the Colonial final. The Monarchs trailed by 12 with 11 minutes to play, but that's when they made their run to get back in it. Gerald Lee was the key to ODU's comeback, as he scored a career-high 26 points and got the game tied on a bucket with 1:55 to play. Ben Finney scored five of ODU's 11 points in OT, including a big three with 1:08 left. With everything that's happened over the last two days, it's hard to see the Monarchs not getting an at-large - if they need it - now that they've made the final. If they had lost in the semis, they would have been in trouble, but we can't see the committee (especially this year) leaving out the regular season champ of a top 12 league that also made the final. They'll face William & Mary in the final on Monday night, a team that they swept in the regular season.

The WCC final turned out to be the one we all expected to see. Gonzaga held off a second-half comeback attempt by Loyola Marymount to win 77-62 in the first semifinal, and more importantly, St. Mary's dominated Portland to win the second semifinal. A finals appearance doesn't make the Gaels a lead pipe lock for a bid, but we really can't see them getting left out at this point given the way the rest of the bubble has fallen apart the last few days. Their wins at Utah State and San Diego State are looking better by the day, they have a top 50 RPI, and they made the final in convincing fashion. That's enough to keep them in our bracket even if they lose to the 'Zags, and we think the committe will feel the same (Right, committee members, right? Don't screw us with the Gaels again this year...)

Of note: Wake Forest snapped their four-game losing streak with a 70-65 home win over Clemson; Michigan State blew out Michigan at home; Minnesota blew out Iowa at home.

How much do bad losses factor into the equation? For example, Seton Hall's worst loss is to South Florida (64 RPI), while Notre Dame has two sub-100 RPI losses (N'western and Loyola Marymount), and South Florida has one to Central Michigan. How much does that really end up mattering?

I still fail to see the logic behind giving Michigan State anything higher than a 4. The argument I've heard for them is "they won the Big Ten". First, they shared a Big Ten title with Ohio State. Second, their best win was at Purdue without Hummel. Aside from that, they beat Gonzaga and Wisconsin at home (for a total of 3 top-50 wins). Their worst loss was at North Carolina. On the other hand...

Maryland has 6 top-50 wins, a better SoS, and their worst loss was on a neutral court to Cincinatti.

Texas has 5 top-50 wins and a better SoS, but their worst loss was at Oklahoma.

Georgetown has 7 top-50 wins and the hardest schedule in all the land, but a loss at Rutgers is worse than all the other teams' worst losses.

All these teams are generally seeded lower than MSU, though there isn't much compelling reasoning behind it.

William and Mary's RPI is 58. They also won at Wake Forest and beat Richmond. Not a bad loss in anyone's book, especially when you consider now they have a chance to represent the CAA in the NCAA tournament.

Mag - I like Pomeroy, too, for predictive purposes. But not for seeding & selecting purposes. Unless you're prepared to give BYU a #2 and possibly a #1 seed, and New Mexico a #10 seed. Now, do I think that means BYU has a better chance to go farther than New Mexico? Yes, I do. BYU should be favorites in Las Vegas this week. They've beaten the MWC by an average of 16/game compared to UNM's 7/game. But you have to reward New Mexico for finishing ahead of BYU in the regular season and sweeping BYU. Selections & seedings have to be based partially on a reward basis and not on a purely predictive basis. Not to mention Maryland is #8 in Pomeroy.

It is a joke that as well as the MVC is done in the past the Wichita State is not even on the radar... a team that lost two games by double digits all year to Pitt and Illinois St... they never lost at home the entire season and two of their losses went to a UNI team that is likely a 12 seed (maybe higher)... yet you have St Louis of all teams in the final 8 just out... It is time the system is changed...

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