More Uncomfortable Truths

Friday

Nov 15, 2013 at 11:15 AMNov 15, 2013 at 11:30 AM

At about three this morning, I caught an interview on public radio with a sociologist from a state college in North Carolina who opined that the biggest threat to barrycare isn’t the web page, but rather false assumptions. She pointed out that the barrycare is dependent on a population of healthy young subscribers to balance out the pool, but the vast majority of Americans who have their own insurance don’t buy it until they are married and/or have children. The trend in America is for much later marriage, and fewer and later children, meaning that by the time people buy health insurance, both they and their children are more likely to need it and won’t balance out the pool. An enormous number of people with children are not married, and will qualify for subsidies, meaning that they don’t provide the balancing objectives the regime needs. She pointed out that one of the reasons why Romneycare worked in Massachuetts was that at the time marriage rates at an earlier age were more common, and higher educated young marrieds sought insurance, an assumption that does not apply to more than 2/3 of the states today. She said that every time she hears Obama compare his program to that of Massachusetts, she winces. Its not just the program–its the assumptions that underlie the policy and make it appropriate for Massachusetts but not Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina…. She said that if the program is going to work, the first step is to encourage marriage and middle class child birth rate acceleration, not to encourage a better web page.

Rob Meltzer

At about three this morning, I caught an interview on public radio with a sociologist from a state college in North Carolina who opined that the biggest threat to barrycare isn’t the web page, but rather false assumptions. She pointed out that the barrycare is dependent on a population of healthy young subscribers to balance out the pool, but the vast majority of Americans who have their own insurance don’t buy it until they are married and/or have children. The trend in America is for much later marriage, and fewer and later children, meaning that by the time people buy health insurance, both they and their children are more likely to need it and won’t balance out the pool. An enormous number of people with children are not married, and will qualify for subsidies, meaning that they don’t provide the balancing objectives the regime needs. She pointed out that one of the reasons why Romneycare worked in Massachuetts was that at the time marriage rates at an earlier age were more common, and higher educated young marrieds sought insurance, an assumption that does not apply to more than 2/3 of the states today. She said that every time she hears Obama compare his program to that of Massachusetts, she winces. Its not just the program–its the assumptions that underlie the policy and make it appropriate for Massachusetts but not Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina…. She said that if the program is going to work, the first step is to encourage marriage and middle class child birth rate acceleration, not to encourage a better web page.