Curran's Patriots-Raiders preview/review

By Tom E. Curran

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WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

PREVIEW

The Raiders are bad on third down – 45.7 percent conversions – which is 31st in the league. They haven’t picked off a pass this season (first team in history to do that) and they’re allowing 116.6 yards per game on the ground. The Raiders are middle of the pack in covering wideouts and tight ends but are in the bottom tier when it comes to dealing with running backs both on the ground and as receivers. This feels like a Rex Burkhead-James White-Dion Lewis kind of game, much like last week’s was against Denver. The Raiders will probably be without starting corner David Amerson and rookie safety Obi Melifonwu will be checking Gronk. This doesn’t feel like a good spot for Oakland, especially after the Patriots spent a week bonding and in full business mode out at the Air Force Academy. The big X-factor for the Patriots will be at center where Ted Karras will be stepping in for David Andrews at center and La’Adrian Waddle will again be in for Marcus Cannon at right tackle. Khalil Mack is a menace at outside linebacker so the Patriots will need to account for him throughout.

REVIEW

Playing from ahead. That’s what the Patriots love to do. They did it. Through the Patriots first three drives, Brady was 18-for-21 for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Two of the incompletions were “coulda been caughts” to Rex Burkhead; the other was a deep throw downfield to Brandin Cooks which Brady followed up on the first play of the ensuing drive by completing the same throw. A clinical first drive for the Patriots ended with a Dion Lewis touchdown catch as Brady started hot and the Patriots up-tempoed Oakland into early fatigue. Brady started smoking hot with 12 straight completions before misfiring deep on third-and-5 to end the second drive. Rex Burkhead had a fumble on the first drive that was recovered by Dwayne Allen. Cameron Fleming allowed a Khalil Mack sack on the second series as Fleming rotated at right tackle with La’Adrian Waddle. The Patriots jammed it in on their second drive after a couple of Brady third-down darts – the big one to Gronk on a third-and-11. The Patriots were 5-of-6 on third down in the first half. Brady was 20-for-24 for 201 yards and two TDs. The Pats were 2-for-2 in the red zone in the first half as they went up 17-0 with a Stephen Gostkowski field goal at the buzzer. The Patriots started that drive at their 7 with 33 seconds left but when Dion Lewis got 20 on the first play, they went after points and got them. Once the Patriots opened the half with a 64-yard Brady-to-Cooks touchdown pass, it was all over except for stat compilation. This was the second straight week the Patriots had Brian Hoyer on mop-up duty. Brady was 30 for 37 for 339 and 3 TDs. Cooks had six catches for 149 yards and Amendola had eight for 66.

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

PREVIEW

David Carr got hurt in the third quarter of the Raiders loss to Denver on Oct. 2. His back injury was initially billed to be a two-to-six week issue but he missed just one game. A rising star last season, he’s got 13 TDs and seven picks this year. He’s only taken 10 sacks and is completing 65 percent of his passes but the lack of a consistent running game has been an issue for Oakland. The Raiders haven’t been over 100 rushing yards as a team in their past three games and have had games of 32, 23, 88, 54 and 84 on the ground. In the Raiders five losses, they are averaging 13.4 points. The strength of the Raiders is at the skill positions. Wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and tight end Jared Cook are the staples of the Raiders passing game with 38, 39 and 36 catches respectively. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots choose to defend the Raiders wideouts. Crabtree is an excellent route-runner with very good hands. Cooper has had issues with drops the past two seasons. Both are 6-1 and solidly built. Cooper is the faster of the two but both players are averaging fewer than 13 yards per catch. Will New England stick with matching corners Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler as they did last week or leave them on their respective sides? It will be a good test of communication for Gilmore if New England plays more zone since that wasn’t a strong suit for him earlier this year. If New England can bottle up Lynch and make it a process for the Raiders to drive the ball by stringing together plays, they’ll be in good shape if the New England offense can cash in early and make Oakland play from behind.

REVIEW

Oakland tried early to establish the run with Marshawn Lynch and Jalen Richard and they did – especially on the third drive where they took whatever they wanted on the ground. But the Patriots came up with a pick on their second drive when a bomb from Derek Carr bounced off the shoulder of Johnny Holton and was picked by Duron Harmon and they capped the third drive with a strip of Seth Roberts inside the New England 10 (held up by Jonathan Jones and forced loose by Marquis Flowers). Carr was 8-for-14 for a meager 65 yards in the first half. Drops were involved. The Raiders ran for 87 in the first half. Carr went 28-for-49 for 237 with a touchdown and a pick. Crabtree was drop-heavy. The Raiders ran it more effectively against New England than they had against any opponent but got nothing to show for it.

THE KICKING GAME

PREVIEW

Raiders kickoff returner Cordarelle Patterson is about the best in the league. He’s averaging 30.8 per return. Probably not a horrendous idea to kick everything out of the back of the end zone. The Raiders suck at punt returns with 16 for 87 yards and a long of 13 from returner Jalen Richard. Kicker Giorgio Tavecchio is 12 for 14 this season and 3-for-4 beyond 50 yards. Marquette King is the punter and he hits a big ball. Effective guy. No Matt Slater in this one for the Patriots who’ve been red-hot in all special teams phases.

REVIEW

Stephen Gostkowski boomed a 62-yard field goal at the end of the first half to make it 17-0. That was a career-long. He also hit from 51, 40 and 29. Ryan Allen dropped both punts inside the 20. Marquette King had just a 32.3 net punting average on his three punts and the Patriots didn’t let Patterson get his hands on a kick return.

Patrick Chung left for a time with a chest injury. La’Adrian Waddle appeared shaken up after the first drive. Stephon Gilmore and Danny Amendola left in the third quarter with dehydration. All were able to return.

RAIDERS MEDICAL REPORT

GAME WITHIN THE GAME

PREVIEW

For whatever reason, there are a lot of flags in Raider games. For both sides. In the past three games, Oakland and its opponents have combined for 18, 17 and 21 enforced penalties. The Patriots are coming off a game in Denver where they drew just one flag. With a lead official who’s never worked a Patriots game before, it will be interesting to see how the flags are distributed. Also, consider altitude and the way it will affect the range of the kickers because Giorgio booms ‘em.

REVIEW

The altitude certainly affected Gostkowski’s range. The Patriots wouldn’t have tried a 62-yarder at Gillette, that’s for sure. The Patriots had just two penalties for 10 yards. Oakland had 8 for 66. New England’s either playing really clean or the refs are missing everything!!!!!

PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP

PREVIEW

Marshawn Lynch. Bottle up Lynch, get the Raiders in third-and-long and force them to convert time after time to get points. Lynch had 18 carries for 76 yards in Week 1. His best game aside from that was 13 for 63. Meh.

REVIEW

Lynch had his most productive game on the ground and the Raiders may have been in a position to lean on the ground attack if they didn’t turn it over twice with a pick and a fumble and the defense didn’t let the Patriots build a quick 14-0 lead. It was 24-0 54 seconds into the second half and the Raiders couldn’t be running it anymore.

RAIDERS GOTTA STOP

PREVIEW

Rex Burkhead. In the three games since he’s come back from injury, Burkhead’s caught 11 passes for 108 yards (on 11 targets) and run 20 times for 82 yards. He’s been a big third-down conversion option for New England and with Oakland having some issues in covering running backs, it will be interesting to see if Burkhead’s role keeps expanding.

REVIEW

Burkhead looked off a bit this week with just five carries for 16 yards and four catches for 21 yards. This was Lewis’ day as he had 10 carries for 60 yards and four catches for 28 with a touchdown.

THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE

PREVIEW

“He’s always aware what they want to do. Obviously, they do a lot of kind of spread out formation where he can really choose between any weapon out there and he does that. He takes advantage of matchups across the board, whether it’s [Jared] Cook on a linebacker or one of his receivers in against a guy he likes. So, I think for us in the secondary, we’ve realized we have to play well against their guys. Obviously, [Amari] Cooper and [Michael] Crabtree are the guys that stick out, but whether it’s Seth Roberts, whether it’s Cordarrelle Patterson, whether it’s [Johnny] Holton, all those guys have made plays. I think Carr knows when to get those guys the ball. So, across the board, this isn’t a game where we can say, ‘Let’s just stop this guy or that guy.’ We have to really cover all five of their threats on the field.” – Devin McCourty, Patriots safety, on dealing with Derek Carr.

REVIEW

Between the drops, the pick he threw off of his receiver’s shoulder pad (not his fault entirely) and just the general malaise of the Raiders offense the fact Carr wound up with a 28 for 49, 327-yard, 1 TD, 1 pick day is no surprise.

THAT SUMS IT UP RAIDERS STYLE

PREVIEW

“It’s not a scary thing to play them. They’re the next team on the schedule. Let’s not make it something it’s not, but let’s respect that they’re very smart. They’re very wise in how they game plan things.” – Derek Carr on facing New England.

REVIEW

Eight points allowed. The sixth game in a row in which the Patriots allowed 17 or fewer. Nobody’s afraid of the Patriots defense. But nobody really scores on them much anymore either.

THE CREW, THE BOOTH AND THE LINE

PREVIEW

John Hussey’s crew has the game. He’s been a referee for three seasons and has never been a head ref for a Patriots game. This is a CBS game and the top crew of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo gets the call. Romo is of Mexican descent so, with the game in Mexico City, there’s at least an opportunity for some idle cultural insight between downs. Good chance Jim will make it cringe-inducing. The Patriots are favored by 7.5 and the total is 55.

REVIEW

The officials got deked on a Marquette King flop and may have missed a DPI on Brandin Cooks but it was an uneventful game for the refs. Nantz and Romo were full of mirth the whole game. Giddy. Phil Simms must huff with disgust every time he hears those two jokers yukking it up without him. Patriots cover. The game goes under.