U.S. troops to leave Iraq, Iraqis want them to leave ... it adds up to uncertain future: A Closer Look

View full sizeJerilee Bennett, Colorado Springs Gazette via APCapt. Corey Steiner is welcomed home by his daughter, Lilliana Steiner, during a homecoming ceremony Friday at Fort Carson, Colo. All U.S. troops in Iraq "will definitely be home for the holidays," President Barack Obama said Friday.

The war in Iraq began on March 20, 2003. On May 1, 2003, President George W. Bush declared major combat operations were over under a "Mission Accomplished" banner on the deck of the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln. Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was captured in December 2003, and was executed in December 2006.

But the speech on the Abraham Lincoln would hang over Bush for the rest of his presidency, as would the war, which continued on for nearly nine years. More than 4,400 U.S. soldiers lost their lives, more than 30,000 were injured, and some estimates say the cost might exceed $1 trillion.

The end of the Iraq war - a campaign pledge Obama made in 2008 - allowed the US to mark what the president called "a larger transition" in US foreign policy. "The tide of war is receding," Obama said, noting that US forces are beginning to draw down in Afghanistan as well. But Obama's Iraq statement will inevitably lead to questions - and certainly to political debates, especially with the advent of a presidential campaign -ranging from "Was it worth it?" to "Did the war set back or advance the hegemonic goals of Iraq's neighbor, Iran?"

And there are questions, the most pressing of which is Iran. U.S. allies in the Middle East are concerned that a no troop presence in Iraq could lead to more meddling from Iran (Wall Street Journal):

One worst-case scenario: Iraq could replace the role Syria has played for Iran: a pivotal Arab ally facilitating Iran's transfer of funds and arms to proxy groups such as Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah and Palestinian militant group Hamas. "[The pullout] is seen as giving Iraq back to Iran and a sign that the U.S. is less committed to the region," said a senior Arab official shortly after President Barack Obama announced the Dec. 31 pullout plan. "That's how it will be read in the region." The Iranian issue has fueled some conservative criticism of Mr. Obama's decision. "Certainly, tonight Supreme Leader Khamenei will dance a jig of celebration," said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official now at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

Not surprisingly, the GOP presidential field is unified in its opposition to the decision to leave Iraq (Washington Post):

Faced with public opinion that has long been in favor of a complete withdrawal from Iraq, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann simultaneously charged Obama with trying to curry political favor at home and failing to strike a deal with the Iraqis.
"The unavoidable question is whether this decision is the result of a naked political calculation or simply sheer ineptitude in negotiations," Romney's statement said.
...
Other Republican leaders took more of a middle ground, hailing the end of the war and the return home of the troops, while worrying that trouble may be looming.
The war had been won by U.S. forces "under the strategy developed and implemented by our generals, and the leadership of both President Bush and President Obama," said House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio). "While I'm concerned that a full withdrawal could jeopardize those gains, I'm hopeful that both countries will work together to guarantee a stable Iraq and strong U.S. partnership."

The Obama administration had been trying to negotiate a deal with Iraq to leave a contingent of soldiers in Iraq into 2012. However, a disagreement over immunity for U.S. troops scuttled any deal (Wall Street Journal):

"When the issue of immunity was brought up and the Iraqi side was told that the American side won't leave a single soldier without full immunity and the Iraqi answer was that it's impossible to grant immunity to a single American soldier, negotiations stopped regarding the numbers, location and mechanics of training," Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki told reporters in Baghdad. ... White House officials have said that the U.S. will maintain between 4,000 and 5,000 security contractors in Iraq to protect American diplomats. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta also left the door open on Friday to the possibility that some American soldiers could return to Iraq after the withdrawal of American combat forces to provide training, especially to the country's air force, which agreed recently to purchase 18 F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. But here, too, Mr. Maliki took a hard line on Saturday, saying that it would be solely up to Iraq to decide how many trainers it needed. He added that the trainers would enjoy no immunity and would be confined to Iraqi bases. He also quashed the possibility for collaboration with the U.S. in the fight against terror groups like Al Qaeda in arrangements similar to those with countries like Pakistan and Yemen.

How will the future of Iraq play out? One can only speculate. What is certain is that U.S. troops, including those from Northeast Ohio, are pleased with the news that their mission in the country is winding down and they'll soon be reunited with their families. It's not total relief ... the mission in Afghanistan continues (Cleveland.com):

Army veteran Duane Evans, 31, of Euclid, for example, served two tours in Iraq and said of the withdrawal, "It's about time. But a lot of people aren't realizing that, yeah, they're coming home from Iraq, but they're still going overseas to Afghanistan. "They're coming out of one war zone and going into another," he added. "I know that because my brother, who was serving in Iraq, just went to Afghanistan. Just because we pull out of one section doesn't mean the war's over yet."

And after nearly nine years, many Iraqi citizens also reportedly are eager to see U.S. soldiers go home ... but not all share that sentiment (Los Angeles Times):

"I was so happy to hear that the Americans are leaving our country," said Firs Fertusi, 33, a former fighter in the disbanded Mahdi Army, founded by anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada Sadr. "They destroyed our country. They created so much tension among Iraqis." ... Yet for all the apparent antagonism, some still support an American presence. Ali Jaff, a pro-democracy activist, said he was worried that without direct U.S. influence, "new episodes of violations of human rights" could erupt. And Raad Hussein, an engineer in Baghdad's Sadr City district, said he feared the return of "masked gunmen wearing black," a common sight during the worst of the sectarian violence that had ravaged the nation. "I think we will regret the Americans' departure," Hussein said.

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