Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Once again, a member of my family has handed me a prediction form to fill in for her work, this time for the Rugby World Cup. I seem to recall falling flat on my face four years ago after sticking to the form guide too closely, but then I'm never one to depart too far from a losing strategy. As ever, though, I'm erring on the side of pessimism with Scotland - on paper the crunch game with Argentina could go either way, so I'm naturally taking it as read that we'll lose. It was of course Argentina that knocked us out last time, after an intensely frustrating quarter-final that with a bit more confidence we could possibly have salvaged at the death.

Anyway, here is what I've come up with -

Group A

New Zealand to beat Tonga by 15 or more
France to beat Japan by 15 or more
Canada to beat Tonga by less than 15
New Zealand to beat Japan by 15 or more
France to beat Canada by 15 or more
Japan to beat Tonga by less than 15
New Zealand to beat France by less than 15
Japan to beat Canada by less than 15
France to beat Tonga by 15 or more
New Zealand to beat Canada by 15 or more

FINAL TABLE

1. New Zealand (Q)
2. France (Q)
3. Japan
4. Canada
5. Tonga

Group B

Scotland to beat Romania by 15 or more
England to beat Argentina by less than 15
Scotland to beat Georgia by 15 or more
Argentina to beat Romania by 15 or more
England to beat Georgia by 15 or more
England to beat Romania by 15 or more
Argentina to beat Scotland by less than 15
Georgia to beat Romania by less than 15
England to beat Scotland by 15 or more
Argentina to beat Georgia by 15 or more

FINAL TABLE

1. England (Q)
2. Argentina (Q)
3. Scotland
4. Georgia
5. Romania

Group C

Australia to beat Italy by 15 or more
Ireland to beat USA by 15 or more
USA to beat Russia by less than 15
Australia to beat Ireland by less than 15
Italy to beat Russia by 15 or more
Australia to beat USA by 15 or more
Ireland to beat Russia by 15 or more
Italy to beat USA by 15 or more
Australia to beat Russia by 15 or more
Ireland to beat Italy by less than 15

FINAL TABLE

1. Australia (Q)
2. Ireland (Q)
3. Italy
4. USA
5. Russia

Group D

Fiji to beat Namibia by 15 or more
South Africa to beat Wales by less than 15
Samoa to beat Namibia by 15 or more
South Africa to beat Fiji by 15 or more
Wales to beat Samoa by 15 or more
South Africa to beat Namibia by 15 or more
Samoa to beat Fiji by less than 15
Wales to beat Namibia by 15 or more
South Africa to beat Samoa by 15 or more
Wales to beat Fiji by 15 or more

FINAL TABLE

1. South Africa (Q)
2. Wales (Q)
3. Samoa
4. Fiji
5. Namibia

Quarter-finals

Australia to beat Wales by less than 15
England to beat France by less than 15
South Africa to beat Ireland by less than 15
New Zealand to beat Argentina by 15 or more

Semi-finals

Australia to beat England by less than 15
New Zealand to beat South Africa by less than 15

New Zealand easily won the inaugural World Cup way back in 1987, but since then it's fair to say no-one has got rich by backing the All Blacks. Their semi-final loss to Australia in 1991 wasn't unexpected, but in subsequent tournaments they have suffered some truly jaw-dropping defeats, most notably in the bizarre games against France in 1999 and 2007, and the legendary final against South Africa in 1995. However, with their current form, and with the tournament on home soil, it's very hard to see past them.