Mon, Jan 29

What a week for the SGP. 6-1. Helps eliminate that cold start way sooner than I expected to get it back. In this blog post I will talk about the week that was. I am going to talk about how some of my leans have been going with a few numbers there. A big mistake I made which has crushed what would’ve been a otherwise great month. And just a little bit about the future. Lets get into it.

Okay here are the numbers for the week.

Week 6-1 for +4.9x
Month 17-13 for +3.16
Since the SGP return 37-35 for -.54x

Still have that one minus number in there but this is quite a improvement over the last few blog post numbers. Things have been going much better. I no longer do a review of individual games on the blog because with twitters new extra characters I am able to talk briefly daily about the pick. Ive been on right sides of some close ones this week. But the plays were solid. Lets look at the individual sports as for as numbers go.

CFB 3-5 -2.39x
NFL 7-7 -.56x
NBA 4-9 -5.61x
CBB 23-14 +8.02x

So there it is. Look I did use to be good at NBA but this is two years in row now of total struggle. That’s why there hasn’t been many of them. I cap them and do list leans in the daily pick. But they haven’t done well either. Last year around February is when it turned around some. I don’t know that it will be the case again this year or not. But I haven’t and prolly wont be playing a lot of it until I feel I have a better handle. Football is essentially over although I will give a SB lean below. CBB is where it has been at so far. And we still have a lot of that left until bases gets going sooner that seems possible. So there are the numbers. Pretty happy with were I am at here.

Every day I list leans into my SGP play. I know there are a few guys who play all these and there are a few that play a few. Usually there is between 3-6 a day with CBB Saturdays having around 10-15. These plays are where the SGP comes from daily. They are of course based on my numbers, SP and then market shit. Either one that usually has Sharp action or possibly one that the books taking a stand on. Since I started back the SGP I have been playing and tracking these separately. I do still play them. Now I should note that the first few weeks of the SGP I wasn’t playing these or tracking even because I was getting into the swing of the SGP. But I am going to continue to list them and continue to play them myself. In the weekly blog from now on I am going to give you the records and just briefly talk about how it is going.

Total Plays 81
Record 46-35. That’s 56.7%
Units won based on -110 juice. +7.5x (I figured -110 for ease of accounting. A lot of the time I do better and so should you)

A new thing I am tracking with these picks is how often I beat closing lines. I make these in morning. Usually before 10:00. Now this number doesn’t account for games where CLV is same. 43 times I beat the Closing Line, 19 times I didn’t. So I feel this is really good. That’s basically a 2-1 ratio. I like to get ahead of it as much as I can. As long as your winning this to me is a worthless stat but a lot of people seem to care about it. It is really just a product of decent numbers and good market reading information and skills. So there that is. It will be brief but I will mention it here for those who care.

Speaking of other plays and mistakes made. I started following a capper who I believed to be decent. And it is very possible he is and is just having a time. I defiantly get that. But it broke my month. Even with the success i had with the SGP it wasn’t a good month. I am going to continue with it for me personally because I believe it is bad to bail on guy while going through bad streak. Hell if you believed enough in them to start why not finish a couple months. What I wont be doing anymore is posting those plays to Onside. He basically killed my account there. Will take me awhile to build that back. My lesson learned.....stay with what I know. Stay with my picks. Chalk that up to a loss.

This weekend is the Super Bowl. I have already got questions on who I will be one. Well I put a personal play in on NE -5 a few days back. It probably wont be the SGP. My number was NE -4.5. My SP were split. This would lead you to believe that I would be on the Eagles but I am not. The game opened at -6.5 although mostly was at 5 before it was everywhere. The are a few more tickets on Eagles right now with money basically split. The is a ML liability on Eagles. It is my belief that the books actually need NE money, which hardly ever happens. Everybody has even heard of the large bets on PHI. Philly looked great in champ game and NE looked bad. Some still think the Jags could’ve/Should’ve won that game. I still like NE despite all this. I think they win and do it going away this time. That is my opinion on the big game.

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