Analyst: “Unprecedented pent-up demand” for 3G iPhone

The first post-WWDC survey of potential smartphone buyers shows the iPhone 3G …

AppleInsider references an interesting research note from RBC Capital Markets Analyst Mike Abramsky that asserts "unprecedented pent-up demand" for the iPhone 3G may explode this summer. Conducted after WWDC and the unveiling of the iPhone 3G, the survey of some 3,600 RBC Technology Adoption Panel members—sounds like suits—has the new iPhone as the choice of more than half. A distant second is RIM and the Blackberry, while Palm leads the losers, including HTC, Nokia, Samsung, and Motorola. Just over a tenth of respondents are choosing something else too (probably some kind of Windows Mobile horror, or maybe that vaporware phone from Google, not that it matters). The only players that matter are Apple and RIM.

Bloomberg reported on RIM last week, and the news was not good. Although RIM reported that first quarter income and sales doubled over the same period last year, plus the addition of 2.3 million subscribers, the stock took a pounding last week. Why? Global Crown Capital analyst Perez-Fernandez suggested that "fears about the Bold being late are probably true and that's why the stock is down.'' The 3G Blackberry Bold was to be the RIM's answer to the iPhone, and it will be, sometime in August at $300 to $400. However, Edel Ebbs, RIM Vice President for Investor Relations, said in a conference call the "Bold will start 'ramping' in the quarter ending in November." Meanwhile, the iPhone 3G will match and surpass the feature set of the Bold in two weeks, and make no mistake: features matter.

According to the RBC survey, price and 3G network topped customers' reasons for purchasing the iPhone 3G, followed by GPS and Exchange support. Somewhat surprisingly, third-party applications are not in huge demand, but then again, people are likely used to the "old way" of getting applications. As a recovering Palm user, I can testify to the pain and suffering of trying to find and install apps that wouldn't crash my Treo. The Apple App Store will hopefully bring about a new era of ease and application stability, and the App Store is not something the Blackberry Bold will have. If there is any good news for RIM, Abramsky also notes "a significant expansion of the smartphone market" this year, meaning more potential customers for RIM. At least until Apple steals them.