Jordan next?

posted at 11:36 am on February 1, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

Israel has grown accustomed to existing in a sea of hostile and unstable nations, but that may grow even worse with the news that King Abdullah II of Jordan has sacked his entire government in response to protests. Seeking to head off a crisis like the one in Egypt, Abdullah has promised a new set of political reforms that will “correct the mistakes of the past”:

Jordan’s King Abdullah II fired his government Tuesday in the wake of street protests and asked an ex-prime minister to form a new Cabinet, ordering him to launch immediate political reforms.

The dismissal follows several large protests across Jordan— inspired by similar demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt — calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices and slowed political reforms.

The king named Marouf al-Bakhit as his prime minister-designate, instructing him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms, which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan,” the palace statement said.

ABC correctly notes that the connections that matter most to the US between Jordan and Egypt are the US itself and Israel. They are the only two Arab nations with diplomatic relations with Israel, which prompts the question of just how coincidental these developments really are. While neither nation is known as a bastion of political freedom, they tended to be more moderate than other Arab and Muslim nations in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia (a US ally that does not recognize Israel), Yemen, and of course Iran. They also tended towards more secular rule than Islamist, especially in Egypt where the government has suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood.

Their relative moderation, as well as relatively healthy middle class, could explain their sudden lurch towards instability, especially in light of Tunisia’s uprising earlier. But if one asks the cui bono question, the answer so far has to be Iran, who at least must be delighted at what looks to be the start of an unraveling of US and Western influence in the region.

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If Jordon goes, then no one is safe. There are even rumors about Syria.

Skandia Recluse on February 1, 2011 at 11:40 AM

I would think that Syria’s government collapsing would change very little. Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon is at its zenith right now, and while Assad has had some success in combating the Muslim Brotherhood, he’d like to extinguish Israel just as fast as the rest of them.

I’ve been listening to John Bolton on this. My concern is that we have a voting present community organizer and a hard core woman with no real diplomatic experience facing this situation.
Plus, all of this is NOT a spontaneous outbreak.

The premise is wrong, the fact that uprisings happened in relatively liberal arab countries, doesnt mean, they are going to turn to islamo -faschism, more like in really opressive regimes it was next to impossible to organize. Not that it doesnt mean, that after liberals take control, they wont lose it later to islamists, after the first real or created crisis.

calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices

The person to blame for rising fuel and food prices is Ben Bernanke.

Emperor Norton on February 1, 2011 at 11:45 AM

And it is going to get much, much worse: Look at this graph and realize that all that money has not gone out to the public, it still exists as deposits in banks and lending institutions. So either we have huge price inflation when it does get out into the public or we have a Paul Volcker movement whereby all that excess liquidity gets soaked up with high interest rates. Either way, the Fed has screwed us all, all around the globe.

I’ve been listening to John Bolton on this. My concern is that we have a voting present community organizer and a hard core woman with no real diplomatic experience facing this situation.
Plus, all of this is NOT a spontaneous outbreak.

Amendment X on February 1, 2011 at 11:45 AM

We need a congressional investigation into this ‘organizer’ from Egypt that was supposedly brought to the USA for some kind of training. It’s shocking how the liberal media seems to want to ignore that story. Maybe there’s nothing to it, maybe not, let’s find out.

I’ve been listening to John Bolton on this. My concern is that we have a voting present community organizer and a hard core woman with no real diplomatic experience facing this situation.
Plus, all of this is NOT a spontaneous outbreak.

It may unravel for a while…but people will learn how much they miss us pretty quickly. Though leaders knowing that for at least 6 more years they can have the rug pulled out from under them at any time…doesn’t help.

Read the last two articles from Spengler Online. These people are undereducated despite having what passes for college educations in the Mideast. Those who can get decent educations have left for greener pastures. The Arab world has no way to climb out of the pit before their demographic collapses arrive.

calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices
The person to blame for rising fuel and food prices is Ben Bernanke. George (spookyguy) Soros.
Emperor Norton on February 1, 2011 at 11:45 AM

FIFY

Beck discussed this yesterday on his show. No, I agree with Amendment X, this is definitely NOT a spontaneous outbreak. Spookyguy has been working on this with his “shadow governments” for a loooooooong time now. It’s coming to fruition…

So either we have huge price inflation when it does get out into the public or we have a Paul Volcker movement whereby all that excess liquidity gets soaked up with high interest rates. Either way, the Fed has screwed us all, all around the globe.

Amendment X on February 1, 2011 at 11:51 AM

Perhaps calling us the Great Satan wasn’t so far off, after all, except it isn’t for selling tear gas to dictators.

Beck discussed this yesterday on his show. No, I agree with Amendment X, this is definitely NOT a spontaneous outbreak. Spookyguy has been working on this with his “shadow governments” for a loooooooong time now. It’s coming to fruition…

Barry is going to Carterize this whole mess. It is fine and dandy that the ME ‘middle-class’ is one of the driving forces except that ‘middle-class’ is mighty small. No way in hell they will be able to stop the 99% who are hard core Islamists from making 10 Irans out of this.

David, I don’t know what my government is gonna do, but this Texan is praying that it comes to it’s senses and recognize you are the only shining city on the hill over there.

In general, I am open to countries moving from dictatorship to democracy. It gives the common people a voice in running their country, and is therefore empowering and liberating.

Democracy, however, is not a guarantee against stupid choices. The first few elections can very well produce bad leaders. But, if the institution of democracy is preserved, it will eventually lead to good leaders as the electorate becomes more educated about the impact of their choice.

We all know democracy can be a slow messy process (just look at us). That is an order of magnitude more messy when it comes to international relations involving democratic nations, as the decisions of one leader can be upended by the next. However, just because a dictator gave the international community a “good deal”, is a very poor rationale for being opposed to democracy, at least from a long term perspective.

Also, not all countries in the middle east are socially conservative or anti-West in equal measure. While all of them have some elements who are anti-West in their attitude, it is quite likely that a lot of these countries can emerge with moderate governments once the voting booths open. Jordan, for example, is pretty pro-West as far as the people are concerned – so a group like Hezbollah would find it almost impossible to win a majority there.

Yep. Wade Rathke sounds like he is practically peein his pants with glee! Serious stuff is the truth. Most of Asia and Europe are already “controlled” by muslimes. Then we have South America….Castro, Chavez, et al, Russia, China,…well you know what I’m getting at. The USA and Israel are pretty much on their own now. God help us.

I don’t think these Arab uprisings have anything to do with Iraq or the Bush administration, but a lot of neo-cons were telling us that a democratic Iraq would be seen as a model in the region, and lead to democracy elsewhere in the Middle East.

Beck discussed this yesterday on his show. No, I agree with Amendment X, this is definitely NOT a spontaneous outbreak. Spookyguy has been working on this with his “shadow governments” for a loooooooong time now. It’s coming to fruition…

I agree with everything but one. Russia and Putin won’t play the “Religon of Peace” BS, as they were just part of a terror plot!

upinak on February 1, 2011 at 12:13 PM

I agree with you to a certain point upinak. Look at England, quite a few muslimes there too and they are STILL being attacked….I think Putin has some cajones, but how long will he last against Hamas, Hezbollah, MB, etc.?

Pardon my paranoia, but doesn’t it seem too good(or bad) to be true that all of a sudden large parts of the Middle East are suddenly finding that they cannot, absolutely cannot live with governments many of them have been more or less content with for many years, for one minute longer. What, or more likely who, is behind this? They are, in general, highly manipulative, easily driven to rash behavior, somewhat shielded from the realities of the rest of the world populations. The whole thing stinks of some kind of organized interference. And… if that isn’t enough evidence, why are these all countries with moderate regimes? The others are all happy as clams???

The Egyptian government has information a diplomat at the U.S. embassy in Cairo secretly met yesterday with a senior leader of the Islamist opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, WND has learned.
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Democracy, however, is not a guarantee against stupid choices. The first few elections can very well produce bad leaders. But, if the institution of democracy is preserved, it will eventually lead to good leaders as the electorate becomes more educated about the impact of their choice.

Hugo Chavez was democratically elected the first time, as was Adolf Hitler, and neither Venezuela of the 1990′s nor Germany of the 1930′s had a Muslim Brotherhood.

The best possible outcome NOW would be that Mubarak makes some concessions to the protesters, but holds onto power until a slow and orderly transition can be made to a non-sectarian caretaker government, then hold elections some months from now, so that cooler heads may prevail.

The Muslim Brotherhood must not be allowed to take over Egypt, and with it the Suez Canal.

Hitler was *not* legally elected to be a dictator – he strode to dictatorship using a constitutional loophole and using his ties with the president at that time (“Rise and Fall of The Third Reich”). Neither was Hugo Chavez – who used a “constitutional amendment” to usurp democracy.

Also, as I mentioned in the section you quoted, democracy is messy and it takes time (and unfortunately in some cases, blood and money) for people to get educated about their choices. Germany will never elect at hate monger again, and hopefully, neither will Cuba (unemployment can be a very effective teacher).

The goon-mullahs in charge of Iran have something that Egypt does not. They have a goon-squad, the basiji, which stands between the traditional military and the people, and is fanatically loyal to the islamists. It was designed to be so. Ditto the IRG. That’s why they were able to brutally put down attempts at an r-word in Iran.

When Red China massacred thousands in Tiananmen Square in 1989, they imported the soldiers from outlying areas of the country just for that bloody task, so they would be less likely to sympathize with the protesters. This also would not work in Egypt, a smaller country with much better communications networks than China in 1989.

Jordan is not like Egypt there is not a powerful educated western leaning class to fill the void like Egypt.

I personally believe Egypt will slide west with this “revolution” democracy as long as the transition is paced overtime and the military organizes the transfer, I give it OK to neutral on the Richter. Jordan however looks bad to worse on the Richter scale leaning just bad on my opinion.

Everyone hold your balls thou because the worst is to come, Saudi Arabia and the gulf region will fall worse or War footing.

Ohh and the Syria, Iran, Sudan stuff is a non-starter because they will have no restraint for violence like the western leaning strongmen.

Even so the more free and democratic the ME becomes even if in the short-run it hurts our interest in the long run it will be to our advantage. Peaceful transitions organized and controlled by the western leaning military will be our best options. The radicals live on chaos, ignorance, and confusion, however in a fair legal debate they lose. I.E. Lebanon were the western leaning coalition was not beaten by peoples free choice but by the threat of Hezbollah arms. Walid Jumblat explained in raw terms that he had no choice while the opposition (Harriri) used words Hezbollah had no restraints and was willing to use force i.e. 08′ slaughter and conquest of the Druze mountain strongholds while the Sunni Harri watched with the west frozen.