Saturday, December 24, 2011

Where will Ontario’s 15 new seats in Parliament be? This will be
determined by the new Boundaries Commission. But since there is so much interest,
I have spent some time on the answer. (Note: this post has been updated with the census figures.)

First, how many seats will be available for southern Ontario, after the North
is dealt with?

Last time, in the 2004 Boundaries Commission Report after the 2001 census, the
North (north of the French River) had enough people for 7.74 “quotients.” The
Commission decided they could not give them more than nine ridings. This time,
with fewer people and a higher quotient, that area has only 7.01 quotients.

But with Ontario getting more MPs, how can a Commission explain the North
losing an MP? Conservative MP Michael Chong said in the House debate “the bill
would ensure that rural Ontario continues to have the number of seats it has
presently, while, at the same time, adding new seats to the rapidly growing
urban regions of our province. One of the challenges with the bill that the
Liberals have proposed is that, while it would add some new seats to the
rapidly growing regions of urban Ontario, it would take seats away from rural
Ontario and add them to urban Ontario. Our bill would not do that.” House
debates are not binding on the Commission, but this comment does reflect the
likely approach of most Commissioners.

There is a simple solution, since the Ontario government now defines the North
as including Parry Sound. Adding Parry Sound, it is possible for the North to
keep nine MPs without breaking any rules, as detailed below.

So I think the new 15 seats will be:
Peel-Halton gets 5 more seats (3.9 in Peel, 1.1 in Halton)
York Region gets 2 more (2.9 mathematically, considering they now share one MP
with Simcoe, and will have to share one with Durham)
Toronto 2 more (1.6 mathematically, but they won't have an MP shared with
Pickering)
Durham 1 more (0.9 mathematically; they won't have to share an MP with
Scarborough East but will with York.)
Ottawa—Prescott & Russell 1 more (1.2 mathematically, since they won't have
to share an MP with Lanark)
Hamilton 1 more shared with Brant; Niagara will no longer have to share one
with Hamilton.
Kingston to Peterborough 1 more (due to growth in Kingston and Frontenac,
Napanee won't have to share an MP with Lanark anymore, and the growing urban area of
Belleville-Quinte West will now have their own MP)
Waterloo—Wellington—Dufferin 1 more (0.7 mathematically, but they won't have to
share an MP with Perth anymore)
Windsor--Essex 1 more (0.7 mathematically), a new MP in suburban Windsor, by
giving Essex-Kent-Lambton an extra half riding and London-Middlesex the other
half, so they no longer have a riding straddling the regions' boundary.
Simcoe—Muskoka has growth worth 0.5 MP, accommodated by Muskoka not having to
share an MP with Parry Sound anymore.

Total 15.5 mathematically, but there are only 15 new seats. The North loses 0.4
seats. Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry loses 0.1.

How do I calculate this?

We have the 2011 census figures.These don’t include 13 Indian reserves and
Indian settlements in Kenora where forest fires made the census impossible, and
some other Reserves, so I have added them.

The results are shown below, with the exact quotients in
brackets. Note that all my southern ridings are within 10% of quotient,
although the Commission is allowed to deviate by up to 25%.

I have tried to follow districts and counties as much as possible,
and District School Boards such as the Near North Board (Parry
Sound—Nipissing). I have eliminated 12 boundary-straddling ridings, but created
five new ones, sorry. Despite the major changes required by growth and
the 15 new electoral districts, 17 of the 121 ridings are unchanged from the
2003 Order.

Toronto has 24.59
“quotients.” But no major region can get its quotients rounded up, after the
North gets an extra 1.7 seats. So Toronto will get 24 seats.

About Me

Although I am a member of Fair Vote Canada's Council at the federal level, the views expressed on this blog are my own.
I have been a lawyer since 1971, an elected school trustee from 1982 to 1994, past chair of the Board of the Northumberland Community Legal Centre, and so on.