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Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #3

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify as it moves quickly across the Western Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 750km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 30kph.The National Weather Service has now issued a Typhoon Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Residents in the said areas are advised to closely monitor the weather bulletins and warnings for this storm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continues within the vicinity of Chan-Hom's circulation. However, persistent easterly wind-shear is still inhibiting consolidation, especially on the eastern side of the circulation. Aside from the wind shear, TS Chan-Hom is also interacting with a weak tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) which is slightly slowing down intensification. Despite this, TS Chan-Hom is still forecast to continue intensifying and eventually attain typhoon-strength later this week.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is based on the current atmospheric pattern as well as some support from the computer model outputs. We are expecting TS Chan-Hom to generally move westward in the next 24 hours but should make a turn to the northwest by tomorrow. It will be moving near the Mariana Islands, particularly near Guam, by early Saturday morning as a possible Category 1 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves are likely to pound the region this week. Chan-Hom should also continue intensifying as it crosses the islands.Stormy conditions will likely persist through Sunday evening.

Please closely monitor the developments of TS Chan-Hom and as always, heed the warnings of your local officials. Stay safe!