This is the first time we’ve been in Colombia. Greener, more mountainous, richer, newer, and more flowery – it is many things we didn’t expect. We’ve seen a lot of press on Medellín. It is supposed to be lively. It is “springtime all year round.” It is beautiful.

Households have less money to spend than they did 15 years ago. And companies cannot make money just by selling things to each other. The only explanation is that customers – including the US government – continue to borrow and spend.

Why should stock market investors care about Napoleon’s invasion of Russia? Or the fate of General Custer at the Battle of Little Bighorn? Or the sinking of the Titanic? Because as Bill explains below, every disaster carries with it an important warning.