Attention F.B. fans: To follow will be several IMPORTANT Info updates about the status of the gun industry currently, followed by an INVENTORY UPDATE: We traveled to Texas for Industry meetings concerning the shortages, and here’s what we were told.

Smith & Wesson: Running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day, mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.

RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1.

LWRC: Making only black guns, running at full capacity …can’t get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand, but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags. Do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS:

ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra’s for reloading purposes. It could be 6-9 months b/f things get caught up. ….

About Robert Farago

Robert Farago is the Publisher of The Truth About Guns (TTAG). He started the site to explore the ethics, morality, business, politics, culture, technology, practice, strategy, dangers and fun of guns.

Anyone else feel like the oddball-caliber folks are laughing? At least for now anyways. I was in the local cop shop and *suprise suprise* no 9mm, .40, .45 ACP, 5.56 (or .233), 7.62×39 or 7.62×51 (or .308). You know what they had PLEANTY of? .38 super, 10mm, .45 gap and 6.8 SPC…

Give the Sig Pro Shop a call. 603-418-8100. They are getting batches of rifles in from the factory down the street every few days. I know that they do out of state transfers via local FFLs. I assume that you can purchase over the phone, but don’t know it for a fact. Right now, they are generally seeing the M400 and 716s, but you might get lucky with something else. One note – prices on rifles are now full MSRP given the demand, so be prepared for sticker shock.

Billions of rounds made domestically. They also import billions more. Production world wide of Ammo for American market could easily hit 1 billion rounds per week if you add all the companies together. Truthfully I really doubt the military and law enforcement buy as much as civilians do, so hopefully this shortage won’t be long… As long as Obama doesn’t invade North Korea in the next few months we might see 9mm and .223 on the shelves again before the 4th of July

They would indeed be brainless to put civilian buyers first – I mean for no upside whatsoever they could piss off their biggest single client (gov), and also open themselves up to accusations that they are making the lives of our brave lads out killing brown people harder.

1) Ammo distributors know what the military normally buys and should keep feeding their normal volume, but not a round more. 2) As for LE, don’t sell to those states or localities that the ‘brass’ has supported gun restrictions. Same rule applies, normal volumes for all other departments. Not a round more.

Hey Ralph… can we try to be a little nicer? H8m is NOT a floor scrubber at McDonald’s and his profession deserves respect. Afterall, being the spunk-mopper at the local XXX shop at least requires a hazmat certification… and it’s hard work! Have you ever tried to scrub a dried load off of a window pane? I mean I haven’t… but I can imagine that that stuff gets REALLY stuck on there… plus it explains the long hours. He *loves* his job…

Please Ralph! A little respect for the man’s actual profession would go a long way. Not everyone is an attorney. Why so mean?

Afterall, being a g*zz mopper at the local p0rno shop is tough work… and at least he’s HAZMAT certified! I imagine it is a real chore to scrub all of those dried l0ads off of the glass… that stuff probably gets REALLY stuck on there! It takes a ton of elbow lub… ahem… grease to get it all off! In fact (snicker) I bet there’s not a soul on TTAG that puts more of their work into themselves… I mean more of themselves into their work… than Hmmmmm!

The federal government buys on a demand contract–they set a max limit of rounds they will buy in a period, and the manufacturer agrees to produce that number of rounds the government asks for when it asks for them. For example, the government will specify ten billion rounds to be purchased over x number of years, and then orders lots against that limit as needed. It has the effect of locking up capacity as the manufacturer has to be able to respond to orders as they come in or be in breach.

All business prioritize there biggest customers first followed by the mid-size and in the end there smaller ones. Well in Guns and Ammo the Military is the big dog. Followed by Law enforcement and my 100 boxes of ammo a year is on the bottom.

Thanks
Robert

PS. I never count how many boxes I buy and 100 boxes is a made up number.

Taken together, civvies are way more important than LE as customers. And probably more profitable, too, since LE expects big discounts.

I suspect the military has contracts with a lot of the ammo makers to get first call, but with Iraq over and Afstan winding down, I would think that military is taking a lot less than they were 5 years ago.

This. Remember the discussion the other day wherein Chicago, with a pretty sizeable PD, buys a mere 100,000 rounds a year. If the industry is running off 1 billion rounds/week, then the only explanation for law enforcement coming ahead of civilians is that there are contracts to fulfill.

And yes, it’s asinine to suggest shorting the military when troops are in the field. They aren’t the ones plotting against the Bill of Rights.

I also pulled out my old pellet rifle. Forgot how fun it was to shoot it. With pellets at around $5 for a few hundred it can’t be beat and I can shoot on my property without issue. My other rifles and pistols may need to sit quiet for a while but I can still work on my control.

How much did homeland security recently buy. Granted the contract was for 5 years but nothing stops them from buy a large percentage of that up front. Also that is all AMMO types. That includes 22lr and 30/30 in that number and some types of ammo is easier to get then others. The biggest problems is the 22lr and the .223/5.56 and how hard those are to get.

It helps to know retail store delivery schedules and to be on a first name basis with the staff. If you can’t be at a store on delivery days and times perhaps another person can do it for you. The gun department manager of a certain local retail store gets a printout of what is (hopefully) on the next day’s delivery truck. If it something we need, I show up there next morning when they open the doors. Last Friday, I was able to buy 170 rounds of Remington UMC .223 ammo for $76 (I don’t own a .223 gun) and turned it over to Chris Dumm.

I’m shopping for a insulated fireproof locker to go in the garage right now, and when reloading components are available again, I’m going to stockpile the fsck out of that stuff.

On the other hand, I’m kinda glad I didn’t drop the cash on that reloading setup in December as I’d planned. Heck, a few more months and I might be able to pick up something at fire-sale prices from somebody tired of waiting for primers and powder. Silver lining and all that.

Boy, I feel lucky. I saw the writing on the wall and bought as much ammo, bullets,brass,primers and powder as I could. I have about 20,000 primers and enough components to keep me busy reloading for the rest of my life. I’m 66 yrs young, so it may not be too long. Hopefully we won’t need them, but it is always better to have more than you need than not enough. Good luck. PDXTom

You’re assuming that there is an empty factory next door that has all the machinery needed. 100% capacity means that they don’t have any more machinery to make what they want to make. Manufacturing capability doesn’t exist from dreams and wishes.

In the manufacturing world that’s a really bad move, particularly if said manufacturer works in a politically volatile vertical. Also, remember that a lot of this stuff is imported (FN, for example), and that puts supply at the mercy of at least one other economy.

Thanks to Wal-Mart culture, where price (and therefore costs) is all that matters. “Race to the bottom” happens in virtually every product category that Wal-Mart touches, and you end up with a minimally-functional, near-disposable product that looks kinda OK and sells for less than the better versions available elsewhere.

There’s a lot of equipment, and a lot of skilled labor recruitment & training involved before they can produce the first extra round. The reality is this may be a bubble (somewhat prolonged, but a bubble none the less). Once people get restocked and a surplus, who’s going to buy all the additional ammo they can crank out? The war is winding down, the government is going broke, so I would have a hard time building a bigger ammo plant that might go idle again about the time it is ready to begin full scale operations.

Kind of seems like we have succeeded in disarming ourselves. Nine months more of these shortages is a long time. My sympathies to those who got re-loading equipment and cannot use it and to those who bought their first gun and have hardly been able to shoot it. Some Ranges are selling ammo to range users only, so if you’re unable to buy ammo you might check your local range(s) to see if they have your caliber available…at least you can get some practice in and get to “know” your gun.

Frankly, I’m more worried about our ability to manufacture high-tech products in time of war. 90% of the world’s supply of “rare earths” comes from China, though we’re starting to ramp up one (one!) operation here in the US now that supply is constrained and prices are up.

At least we still have enough steel-forging capacity for “small” forgings that we could preempt consumer demand and make steel-based war materiel ourselves. We’ve long since lost the capacity for large forgings since we barge-shipped the infrastructure to Asia in 70’s and 80’s. We no longer have the capacity to domestically manufacture stainless-steel pressure vessels for megawatt-range nuclear reactors, for example.

Check their Facebook page. This seems to be a long-term gun shop in WV that has a habit of putting out status updates 2-3 times a week in the current climate with stock updates and expected delivery dates. I don’t think they’re making it up.

I spoke with the owner or a manager at Keiths probably the biggest gun store in my area though I’ve never been there. The man informed me that CZ (he had just returned from a buyers meeting with CZ) and most gun makers will be spending 2013 filling back-orders for guns that are already sold. He sounded depressed about the whole thing.

It’s not. I swing by VG2 on a somewhat routine basis (every couple of weeks or so). As compared to prior years, I’m utterly amazed at how stripped out these guys are. Stock comes in and goes out the very same day – often with in hours. We live in interesting days, that’s for sure.

Ugh, the incredible thing is that literally everything is out, even the odd ball calibers, like .32ACP. Now, I have one 50 round box of CCI blazer FMJ that I haven’t gotten to use do to the logistical difficulties of getting my gun to a range. (I don’t have a car, so I can’t drive)Now, I managed to get to the range and shoot once, in the immediate aftermath of Sandy Hook. I used a rented 9mm, so I’ve never actually fired my gun. It’s spent the last six months sitting forlornly in my safe, unloaded next to the full box of ammo.

That said, this is a great example of capitalism in action. (IE mass panic sends off buying frenzy, leading to price increases, and production capacity increases as the market tries to find a new level.) Sure, it sucks that I may not be able to fire more than fifty rounds for the next year or so, but realistically I know that my .32ACP is way down on the production list. (Anyone know to apply cosmoline?)

No, the ammo companies can’t afford not to put the government first. They know that they could lose the civilian market easily, and there is way too much capacity in the industry to solely cover the government. If you publicly announce that civilians get priority, I’m sure the ATF would put you on some harassment list.

Still, time wise I got into this hobby at an odd time, and I’m kicking myself for not actively seeking more ammo August, and September, when I first got my gun. Life is just plain weird gun wise right now. (I’ve even been waiting two weeks for the ATF to even charge my debit card for my C&R application.(All the while hoping and praying that something with enough information for someone to open a credit card in my name didn’t get lost in the mail))

That’s if I ever get it. (Seriously, if it’s been two weeks since it got to Atlanta, (Sent on the 19th, should have arrived on the 22nd or so) I hate to see how long it’s going to take once it gets to the examiner. (Illinois has it’s own examiner, but since we just got SBR for people with C&R, I imagine she is going to be seriously overworked, even without the Sandy Hook madness.) It normally takes five to seven days for ATF to charge someone’s card, and to send the form to Martinsburg.

Once they actually charge my card, I can stop worrying about something with my social, last three addresses, and debit card number potentially being lost in the mail, and worry about more important things. (Like that age old question, Walther P1 or CZ82 :))

Two Mosins and a Mauser over here (among other things). I can still reload for them too. So I feel less guilty getting my WWII battle rifle pimp on since I can police my brass easily, obtain large rifle primers, H4895 and .312 & .323 projectiles for them. For now.
<__>

I got a hint of all of this back in October. Just so happened that on the last weekend in October my LGS had an anniversary sale. They had the Sig 516 on sale for $1099 – I jumped on it, along with a bunch of Magpul window mags, a Nikon Monarch mildot scope, tactical rings and Harris bipod :). Total cost was about the normal retail of just the rifle!

I suspect the ammo manufacturers have IDIQ contracts with the US Military (indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity) so they get what they need, as much as they need. Also, be advised that a lot of contracts with the military are “rated” under the Defense Priorities Allocations System (DPAS)Program: (http://www.bis.doc.gov/dpas/default.htm), which rating simply put means that supplies for the “war effort” go to the military/national defense first. Since we have been at “war” for the last 11+ yrs, then the ammo manufacturers are legally required to supply the military first. Otherwise, technically, they could be taken over by the gov’t and forced to direct all production towards the “war” effort. Yes, it is legal. I suppose the contracts with the rest of the USG (ie, dept of homeland security) are really subcontracts from the military to the other executive departments so they can take advantage of the ammo contract ratings (although DHS can use its own DPAS authority). Yes, it is legal, and it is common for “group purchase” discounts.

If anyone is around the quad city area in iowa or illinois you can get RRA rifles from quad city guns and ammo. Usually about a week and he has a few different models in shop with regular shipments. Doesnt help out with the ammo problem but thought someone might like to know.

What about Homeland Security buying up all that ammo? They would obviously get priority over civilians (and probably LEOs.)

Are they buying it up to provide for military or LEO shortages? Are they buying it up because they are going to institute some National Police Force? or are they buying them up to keep them out of OUR hands?

States require regular (typically twice a year, more for special teams) qualification. You think they are walking to the paper targets and punching holes in them with pens where they think their rounds would have gone?

I went in to a local gun store the other day to get an ASAP plate for my AR. It was a bit expensive but out the door cost me what I would have paid for overnight shipping from Midway. On my way out I noticed they had .40 in stock from a local reloading company, at $35 for a box of 50. I will never do business there again. No one else in the area is selling the same ammo for that much.

Two days ago I did get my hands on three brand new (in the package) Gen II Maglevel Pmags for $20 each so that made me happy.

I knew I should have bought that box of primers last month. As for ammo, too much is not enough, but my levels are comfortable enough. Thinking about getting a 30-30, and I’ve seen a fair amount of ammo around town for it.

And let us all take away an important lesson from the last two months. When (we hope) supply once more catches up with demand, and ammo/gun prices get back to a reasonable level, remember what it was like trying to find supplies when the SHTF. Stock up – don’t let your supplies get back down to a “I’ll just buy it the day before I plan a range session” level. Ammo and reloading components don’t “go bad” if you store them in a dry, reasonably cool (below 120 degrees) environment. Budget enough every month to build up what the anti-gun twits refer to as “a veritable arsenal”.

+1
I have ~ 7000 rounds of .22lr, and 1000 rounds of 9mm.
The last few years I have been shooting alot. Trying to improve my handgun skills. since I got my CCW.
Shot ~ 300 22lr. and ~ 45 rounds of 9mm a week.
So at that rate I had/have about half a years supply.
I have not been shooting since 1/5/13. This is killing me!
So when things slack off, and ammo and prices seem to get back to 2012 levels if they ever do?
I will really stock up.

Thanks for posting this. I’ve been searching for specifics like these.

A recent issue of Small Arms Review features C-Products, a magazine company with thirty employees. Their production capacity is said to be 125,000 mags per week. I wonder how many Magpul and the other companies can produce per week.

I used to be a JIT (Just In Time) guy, meaning, stop at Farm&Fleet for some 9 and .22 on my way to shoot, leaving a couple hundred rounds at home. I think the shelf shortage is still due to us guys saying “never again” and trying to fill our buckets. The gun nut’s that had 2K rounds stocked up, now want 5K.
I could use 100rnds of 556 and that would more than double my current stash.
At a box a week or less it may take a while to fill our bucket but when it is filled the supply chain will overshoot and maybe we will see 556 at 20 cents a round.

Why not dream the dream if you don’t have anything to shoot. Nothn’ better to do.

Wow!!! 1 billion rounds a week! 5 million background checks for gun purchases in less than 3 months. “We the people” seem to be on a historically significant buying spree. Is that an Elephant I see in the room?

The Department of Homeland Security is set to purchase a further 21.6 million rounds of ammunition to add to the 1.6 billion bullets it has already obtained over the course of the last 10 months alone, figures which have stoked concerns that the federal agency is preparing for civil unrest.

Is it just me or does that S&W report seem a bit off? I can’t believe they haven’t devoted a significant share of capacity to also making M&P-15’s? Also, if most of their production capacity is devoted to making M&P pistols, doesn’t 300 / day seem a bit low?

The ammunition numbers that people are throwing around of late sound outrageous until you do some math. Here’s something to think about –

I’m a reserve officer in the third largest county in our state. We have about 125 sworn officers counting the full time and reserve guys. State law requires us to qualify once a year and we budget 500 rounds per officer. So our minimum ammunition requirement is 62,500 rounds per year. I’ll agree that losts of that ammo goes into our deputies’ gun safes if they can train and qualify with less than 500 rounds but we buy the rounds that we may need and issue them out.

Some states require two qual sessions per year. A quick check of Wikipedia indicates that there are over 3100 counties in the United States. I’m going to make the assumption that about half of the states require semi annual qualifications. So we’re looking at about 4650 yearly qualification events (3100 X 1.5). Let’s assume that an average sheriff department has 50 sworn officers (lots are smaller, but others like LA county are lots bigger) and use the 500 round per deputy figure. The math says that for sheriff departments alone the ammunition requirements are 116 million rounds! Now add in all of the municipal police departments, state police agencies, federal, state and local security agencies (FBI, US Marshalls, tribal police, etc, etc, etc). Then include private armed security which must document qual sessions and special operations groups like SWAT teams which shoot far in excess of the state mandated minimums. My guess is that the yearly ammunition requirement for law enforcement and security alone is a couple of Billion rounds. There’s nothing sinister here, just lots of people who carry guns and are required to shoot every year.

Add the civilian purchases to this and we’re looking at a segment of the market that’s driven by politics and perception. I’m not a prophet or the son of a prophet but I will say that there are people who believe that it will become increasingly difficult to get ammunition in the future. So these folks are buying everything that they can. Most of us have heard of .22LR rounds being called “currency” in some future apocalyptic scenario.

Manufacturers don’t like to have excess capacity. The “just in time” production philosophy that our system operates under says that you make 1000 rounds because you’re going to sell 1000 rounds. You have only the machinery to make 1000 rounds, because anything else is a waste of money. When the demand ramps up to 10,000 rounds and the machinery and technology necessary to meet that demand is expensive and specialized, what do you do? Do you buy more production equipment and hire more people, knowing that the political winds may and probably will change in two or four years? Or do you hunker down, crank out as much product as you can to make money, and hope that the shortages work themselves out as they did in 2009?