I guess I’ve been collecting draft stories forever, from the Pittsburgh Steelers burying the John Stallworth videotape to the Leafs overlooking both Bobby Orr and Brad Park in a two-year span. Favorite Oilers stories involve Glen Sather being impressed that Mark Messier was hammering on the head of Edmonton’s No. 1 center, and Nuge’s edges.

Stare at anything long enough and you begin to figure it out, know the subject and predict things about them. Joe Morgan, the great second baseman, used to talk about pitchers telegraphing their pickoff throws. It wasn’t one thing, it was many, he said. Marriage is like that, if you hang with it long enough and are the sort to bother noticing habits and changes in the weather.

The Oilers have a bunch of tells at the draft table. Peter Chiarelli will change things, but how quickly? Going by the old mission statement, we could predict a lot about Edmonton’s 2015 draft. We could predict a few things:

Connor McDavid goes No. 1

A defenseman taken at No. 16 unless the pick is traded OR Timo Meier or Evgeny Svechnikov fall; the defenseman would be Jeremy Roy or Thomas Chabot

They would take a goalie (probably Mackenzie Blackwood) with the pick at No. 33.

Math and NHLE fans would feel the club’s picks at 57, 79 and 86 projected as better value selections.

Projected Oilers selections (if Chiarelli is changing the draft culture and is about to seize the day:

No. 1: C Connor McDavid

No. 16: R Timo Meier

No. 33: C Anthony Beauvillier

No. 57: R Blake Speers

No. 79: D Noah Juulsen

No. 86: L Vladimir Thachev

Blow your brains out. I know the Oilers would get trashed (undersized skill) but if ever there was a draft to just keep on taking high-end skill guys this is the one. Draft the offensive players who may be difference makers and find your defensemen in the second round or via trade. If Beauvillier turns out, Edmonton is going to be able to trade from strength to address weakness. If Beauvillier is there at No. 33, Edmonton should take him and forget about the goalie.

The first four picks should be ‘shoot the moon’ and Peter Chiarelli has a golden opportunity. There’s so much talent here, take it all dammit. Figure out how to deploy the riches after they’re secured.

FINAL BARONS SIGNING LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ONE

It was reported during the Memorial Cup championship game that the OKC Barons signed C Alexis Loiseau from the Rimouski Oceanic. This is a substantial player—a center, 20, 6.01, 180 and he scored 96 points in 68 QMJHL games in 2014-15. And with that, it also apparently signals the end of the Marco Roy era in Edmonton, as the club hasn’t signed him and this is deadline day. It’ll be interesting to see if Roy signs an NHL contract with any of the 30 teams. As mentioned above, the Oilers have been spending a lot of time in Quebec province, suspect Loiseau isn’t the only prospect coming from the Q.

ROY VERSUS LOISEAU, 2014-15

Loiseau is 298 days older than Roy and he’s absolutely a better offensive player. I’d still sign Marco Roy if I’m the Oilers, but this Loiseau fellow is legit talent, that much is clear.

COMBINE

Traditionally the Oilers value the NHL combine highly, although only one of their six picks attended last season (I wrote about the invite list this season at Oilers Nation and the list is here). Among the unusual names are three WHL players that are on the list and we should be aware of in regard to the Oilers (later on):

D Andrew Nielson, Lethbridge Hurricanes. Big two-way defender. He can pass the puck well and play defense. 6.03, 207. I had him No. 23 on my WHL list.

D Chaz Reddekopp, Victoria Royals. Moved up from No. 199 to No. 82 in the final rankings, he’s described as a big body defender who spiked as a prospect after November.

D Connor Hobbs, Regina Pats. Two-way D with a funky skating style and big shot from the point. Quite likely Edmonton has him on their list. Cody Nickolet of WHL From Above has more on Hobbs and all of the dub kids. Splendid article.

McCrimmon is talking to Leafs and @TSNBobMcKenzie mentions other NHL teams. McCrimmon has ties to Oilers Bob Nicholson and Todd McClellan

Kelly McCrimmon would be very useful to the Oilers organization on all kinds of levels, including draft and Oil Kings. With the Wheat Kings poised to be a power in the CHL over the next three seasons, I wonder if he’ll go to Toronto (or Edmonton) now? Very successful on the junior level.

CAM TALBOT, BY LARRY BROOKS

Brooks: It is unlikely that Edmonton or Buffalo, two teams with a pair of first-round picks in the upcoming draft that are seeking a goaltender, would be willing to yield one for Cam Talbot. Unless the Blueshirts can get that sort of a premium in return for their backup, they are far better served by keeping him rather than dealing him, even if he is heading into the final year of his contract. Source

I think the Oilers could get Talbot for No. 33 overall, and I’d be willing to make that trade (and believe me, there’s zero doubt these early picks have extreme value). We’ll see, and there is danger (he’s one year from UFA) but Talbot looks like a perfect fit for Edmonton at this time. Woodguy’s fine work in this area suggests Talbot and Jonathan Bernier are the top targets, securing Talbot (while also retaining a second, later second-round pick) would be an astute move by Peter Chiarelli.

Leon had a fantastic season, despite the wonky decision-making by the Oilers front office. As was the case with Anton Lander, the Oilers decided he was ready and that was moved, seconded and passed into law without any thought about the possible implications. Fast forward to end of December, and MacT finally turned the rig around and got Leon to junior. Where he proceeded to work hard and help his team win hockey games, and they won enough of them to get into OT at the Memorial Cup final game. I think Kelowna may have been the better team, but it’s a coin flip (that’s the nature of the tournament) and congratulations to the Oshawa Generals. That kid who scored twice is a nice player.

A quick note on Leon in regard to next season. The Oilers have a nice situation in the fall, with Connor McDavid joining a trio of NHL centers (Nuge, Lander, Gordon) and some interesting options (Leon among them) in the bubbling under category. I think the Oilers will try to send Draisaitl down to Bakersfield but there’s every chance he’ll beat the competition for the 3L spot and end up playing with Lander. We’ll see, but there’s not close to enough quality imo to keep him off the roster unless the Oilers decide to send him down no matter how well he plays.

I think it’s also possible we see Boyd Gordon dealt at the draft. Now, before you go crazy, let’s remember that Todd McLellan didn’t employ a shut down line with punishing zone starts, preferring instead to roll the four lines equally in terms of ZS. If that is the plan, then Gordon’s main use will have been neutralized and a team like Vancouver (who are shopping Eddie Lack) may become interested. As you’ll recall, Vancouver was interested in Gordon at the time Edmonton signed him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A packed show today, TSN1260 beginning at 10 this morning. Scott Burnside is on a plane, so we’ll talk to him tomorrow morning at 11. Scheduled to appear today:

Chris O’Leary, Edmonton Journal. Is it June yet? Eskimos TC underway, and an Alabama CB has been signed.

Patricia Teter, Artful Puck. We begin our ‘say goodbye’ series with Patricia. We’ll talk about the best memories and she’ll give us her all-time Barons team.

Todd Cordell, Hockeybuzz. Todd has been breaking down fancy stats for the Memorial Cup, we’ll get a good look at Leon Draisaitl, Nick Merkley and others.

169 Responses to "BURNING DAYLIGHT"

“I’d take Konecny over Merkley. I think that they are very similar players in some ways (which is obviously why you and your friend are debating this). Both play with a ton of energy in the offensive end, have good puck protection ability and are undersized. I think Merkley is a bit better at creating below the hashmarks (working the cycle, driving the net, etc), where as Konecny has the better scoring instincts and shot.

For me it comes down to the fact that Konecny is the superior skater. 5’10 guys who aren’t burners (like Merkley) would scare me if I was picking inside the top 20. Konecny has his injury concerns, but I’d still give him the slight nod.

I do like Merkley though. He’s an exciting player to watch at the WHL level and he’s had a great Memorial Cup thus far. But I do have questions as to how well his game translates to the NHL level given his size and lack of dynamic skating ability.”

I really don’t se Drai going to the AHL as something that historically is done.

Can anyone tell me a single player outside of lockouts that spent draft plus 2 in the AHL as a forward and was also a top 3 or even 5 pick. Players with this pedigree at the draft don’t go the AHL route.

Logan Couture is the closest I can think of myself and 3 overall is different than 9.

—————–

Love these 20 year old CHL players signing AHL only deals. Love them, excellent player procurement.

One area during MacT’s tenure that started happening more. Is it Green ?

Last thread I said this on Marco Roy (whom I like, don’t get me wrong):

While I agree context is important, to me it comes down to the 50 man list.

I look at it this way when analyzing a draft +2 player for signing:

Pretend you hadn’t drafted him. Ignore that you’ve been following him and rooting for him for 2 years.

If a scout presented you with an information package on this 20 year old CHLer, with these numbers, these tools, and this size, who had this injury history and had failed to improve his numbers twice since draft day, would you honestly give him a 2 way contract? I think if the Oilers went out and did just that we’d all be pretty critical of the move.

I feel that the feelings toward Roy have more to do with sunk cost and emotional baggage than they do with cold hard facts. He’s a player I’d like to see in the NHL but the numbers don’t justify a 3 year two way deal.

On the subject of Andrew Nielsen, he’s a personal favorite of mine. I believe he’s got a fair bit more offense than his numbers show and he’s definitely got the calm-feet thing down (and he is loaded with character). That said, again, this is more of an emotional statement than anything because I’m a fan.

He is not “heavy on his stick.” Plus he is only marginally better than Roy, which is to say, not that good. While he put up a point a game with Quebec, this was a step back from last year. Both years he was rocking a shooting percentage near 18%.

Let him go thru the draft and then sign him as a free agent to an AHL deal.

A moment on Leon Draisaitl. Fine finish to the season for the big German. WHL Championship and a Memorial Cup MVP – not too shabby.

I get the criticism leveled at the Oilers and MacT, in particular, for keeping Leon up with the big club but we need to recall that there wasn’t an option to put Leon into the ‘A’.

This is a boy in a man’s body. No question that his confidence doesn’t take a hit if he stayed in the Dub the whole year (or after 9 games) but as was discussed earlier this weekend (and many times before that) the trick with development is to place a challenge before a player that is just outside his grasp such that he is forced outside his comfort zone. Too easy (going right back to Prince Albert) and you bore the kid – and probably reinforce some bad habits – too hard (and number 2 center in the NHL’s Western Conference meat-grinder is that and more) and you run the risk of shattering his confidence.

I don’t look at Leon as a player whose confidence was shattered as his season comes to an end – the longest of any Oiler – and he goes into the offseason knowing, better than most, the distance he still has to climb.

It would have been ideal to have Draisaitl down in the AHL last year plying his trade against men at less than NHL speed and skill but it wasn’t an option. So do you have him dominate children on the playground for the full year or split his time as they did. From a list of less than ideal options, they may have done as good as they could have.

Asset management says you don’t burn that year. Fair enough. I get that perspective. Calgary made a similar call with Bennett. Are 10 games of exposure to playoff hockey worth a year? They felt it was. Bennett will, in their opinion, be a better asset as a result. In spite of the criticism, I suspect Leon will be better for the time spent in the NHL this lost season as well.

Down to the farm to start the season, along with Nurse, and force Chia through dominating at that level that he deserves to be back with the big club.

LT,
The Free Agent wooing period is from June 25-30th.
The Draft is June 26-27th.
I’m sure the Oilers could easily sell the 4th line spot to several UFAs that could play at less than what Gordon is getting paid.
This would allow the Oilers to deal Gordon at the draft and save some money.
Goc, VandeVelde, Brodziak, Letestu, LaPierre, or James Sheppard could all plug in on the 4th line.

Trading Boyd Gordon would be an inspired move. Remember the wise Branch Rickey, “It is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.”

Gordon is 31. He only has one year left on his contract. Trading him is a great idea. Re-signing him is a terrible one.

Likewise, don’t trade anything significant for anyone 29 or older. Stay away from Seabrook or anyone like him. They’ll cost a fortune and they are declining.

As to the goalies, Corey Crawford would be a disaster. I don’t see why it is necessary to pay $6 M for a goalie. That’s 6 million dollars of cap space to buy certainty that doesn’t exist.

Don’t believe me, take a look a the scoring leaders for this past season. Before the season you could have named pretty much every one. And they get paid accordingly.

Now go look at the save percentage leaders. There is no pattern of established ability and hence no reason to pay through the nose for it. We all know this.

Trade for a #2 guy with an established record. This is the play. Cam Talbot, Eddy Lack, Vasilevky, Anderson/Gibson, whomever. Do your woodguy study, pick your guy, pay the price. Whatever the price is, it will be less than what it costs you to get Crawford or Niemi or some other nonentity disguised as a proven starter.

On that topic, if we had sent Leon down after 9 games he wouldn’t have won the WHL championship and he wouldn’t have been memorial cup MVP. Prince Albert would have been good enough that they wouldn’t have traded him and bad enough that they wouldn’t have beaten the Brandon/Kelowna/Portland/Calgary’s of the league.

I don’t know if this makes keeping him the right choice, but it’s worth noting.

Marco Roy was a fancystats pick but it wasn’t Dellow. That said drafting is basically informed betting, like Blakcjack. Making the right call doesn’t win you the hand. Sometimes doubling down on 15 when the dealer is showing an Ace results in good things… but it’s not a good bet. Sometimes doubling down on 11 when the dealer is showing a 7 turns out poorly, and so on.

I like the Marco bet, I even like the player (though I’d only sign him AHL only). I’d make that bet again.

Am I the only one scared shitless about picking Jeremy Roy with the #16 pick? 6’0, slight build and an average to mediocre skater. And while putting up ok numbers he only scored 5 goals in 48 games in the Q. To me that’s way to many warning signs to pick at #16 in a very deep draft.

I think it’s also possible we see Boyd Gordon dealt at the draft. Now, before you go crazy, let’s remember that Todd McLellan didn’t employ a shut down line with punishing zone starts, preferring instead to roll the four lines equally in terms of ZS. If that is the plan, then Gordon’s main use will have been neutralized and a team like Vancouver (who are shopping Eddie Lack) may become interested. As you’ll recall, Vancouver was interested in Gordon at the time Edmonton signed him.

Boy LT, that’s one sharp observation.

A hockey game after all, is simply a bunch of 45 second battles all adding together to reach an end result.

Which does McLellan think gives us the best shot of winning the most of our 82 games? Let’s take a game versus an average opponent in Vancouver, both home and road;

WITH TRADITIONAL CHECKING LINE

HOME
Gordon-Hendricks-Klink vs Sedin/Sedin/Vrbata (we desperately want this matchup and pray for a saw-off at evens)
McDavid-Hall-Yak vs Horvat-Higgins-Kenins (we should be able to make hay against this energy line)
Nuge-Poo-Ebs vs Bonino-Baertschi-Hansen (facing Van’s second line I really like this matchup for the Oil)
Lander-Drai-Purcell vs Richardson-Matthias-Dorsett (skill versus grit; I like Vancouvers matchup better here but not by a lot)

This forward battle all comes down to the Sedins vs Gordon. If he can hold them off the sheet or keep them under control the net of the other 3 matchups should give us a big edge.

WITH GORDON

ROAD

Hall-McDavid-Yak vs Sedins (probably high event but I think the Sedins still win this matchup 7 nights out of 10)
Nuge vs Matthias/Dorsett (very good and physical line would give our line fits. We need to win this matchup handily but I’m not sure it’s that wide a gulf)
Gordon vs. Horvat (They get to hide their misfits against our guys with no offense. Just deletes 8 minutes off the clock)
Bonino vs Lander (Bonino and Hansen/Vrbata are clearly the best of this group at this stage in their career)

If Matthias’ line can handle Nuge I think the Canucks win the forward matchup.

If the Oilers move Gordon now it would be for defense or goaltending but for the purpose of this comparison, say they move him for Lack and sign Derek Roy.

WITHOUT GORDON AND WITH ROY (or Soderberg/Sobotka if you want to go really nuts)

ROAD
Sedins vs Hall (this line is safer with Purcell than with Yak on it. Perhaps even?)
MAtthias vs Nuge (slight win for Edmonton)
Bonino vs Roy-Drai-Yak (slight win for Van)
Horvat vs Lander-Hendricks-Pitlick/Miller (you can sit Kink out on the road when it looks like we need this line to produce and I like this for the Oilers)

I’d call this a coin toss

I think moving Gordon for Lack and signing Roy gives you a better chance on the road to exploit that 4th line versus 4th line matchup.

SwedishPoster:
Am I the only one scared shitless about picking Jeremy Roy with the #16 pick? 6’0, slight build and an average to mediocre skater. And while putting up ok numbers he only scored 5 goals in 48 games in the Q. To me that’s way to many warning signs to pick at #16 in a very deep draft.

I would think Oilers have Roy, Kylington, Chabot and Zboril on there list of D at #16 and are hoping Meier, Connor ,Konecny fall to #16

sliderule: We seem to be looking for right side defencemen.Did anyone notice that Klefbom played the WC on the right side paired with OEL.He also played his last wjc on the right side paired with Brodin..He was effective in both settings.Sometimes the answers are right under foot.

Ca$h-McMoney!: On the subject of Andrew Nielsen, he’s a personal favorite of mine. I believe he’s got a fair bit more offense than his numbers show and he’s definitely got the calm-feet thing down (and he is loaded with character).

He racked 10 PP points a Quick Even point check.
Is dividing by the expect PP/EV ratio .40; .60 to get a standard measure of Even points to PP point.
he racked 3 EVG 11 EVA in 59 Gm.

14/.40 = 35 EVP
14/.60 = 24 EVP

that is Quite a Diffrence.

so we look at who he is playing with.
His top forward sets.
averaged 16 EVG a season and .77 PPG.
D partners average 4 EVG
(3 X 16) +4 = 42 EVG
11/42 = 26.2% assist on EVG

Not playing with a top forward group like Provorov and Pilon had in Brandon.
Averaged 25 EVG a season and 1.22 PPG
D partners average 5 EVG
Provoraov 7 EVG 22 EVA
(25 X 3 ) + 5 = 80 EVG
22/80 = 27.5% assists on EVG

We are seeing the same production affect Klefbom had playing with 4G a season forwards in SWE.

Doug McLachlan: Too easy (going right back to Prince Albert) and you bore the kid – and probably reinforce some bad habits

I agree with pretty much everything else you said, but do want to pick on one point. What I’ve emboldened above is sometimes stated as the reason you shouldn’t send kids back to junior.

I emphatically disagree with this. Minimizing bad habits and working on the good ones is what coaching is for. Players left to ripen, whether in Jr or in AHL, generally come away with better habits, not worse.

There are players, Taylor Hall or Ekblad, say – that are simply too good for Jr and absolutely have to be kept with the big club. Quite a few other players I would say have developed some mighty bad habits playing for the Oil and probably should have spent more time in a developmental league building good ones.

Leon was not ready – even by his words at the time of the draft – for the NHL, and it showed. The only reason I can think of that was a valid reason for not sending Leon back was because they didn’t want him to be part of the clusterf*ck that was the PA Raiders (see comment about coaching above), and delayed the sendoff until they could arrange a trade to a good and well-coached team.

However, I find it hard to give them that much credit, especially since they declined to send Leon to the World Jrs, which would have been a fantastic development opportunity, almost certainly superior to staying with the Oilers during that time.

I don’t worry over the 50 man with those types. I do with the Abneys and Ewanyks.

I have also only seen Tkachev a pretty tenacious in puck pursuit and he doesn’t lose the easily either. He’s Hemsky lite.

Roy was darkhorse and Parkatti.

Again, I feel like the emergence of guys like Gaudreau and Tyler Johnson make taking super-skilled smaller players more palatable for NHL teams to gamble on (throw Kucherov in there too). With so much need for goals, so many teams using fine-tooth combs to find talent, it just makes sense to try out these guys who put up the points but don’t have “NHL” size.

Especially now the bruisers/enforcers/stick optional guys are disappearing from the 4-line. If you can get your skill guys on a lower minute line against the plugs of the other team, teams have a chance to get goals from unexpected places.

I really think Tkachev will get snapped up at the draft and will play a game that surprises traditional hockey minds. And some of the smaller guys with first round skill but smaller size will not pass through the draft like they would’ve even a year ago.

The “fancy stats” part of that draft was that Dark Horse (using a model developed by Mike Parkatti) identified that the draft was deep in “2nd rounders”, or at the very least the players from about 35-100 or so were seen to be fairly even in terms of what the model predicted for their future.

So it made sense to turn37 into as many picks as possible in the top 100.

Every player in that range is about a 12% shot to play 200 NHL games, so load up on the number of times you get to spin the wheel to increase your odds of hitting.

MacT turned pick 37 into 56, 83.88, 94, 96.

Apparently the only hold up was Zach Fucale.

Oilers would have taken him if he was there at 37.

Thankfully MON grabbed him at 36.

You can say that Roy didn’t work out, but Yakimov and Slepechev were taken at 83 and 88 and they are both promising young players. Especially Slappy.

I really don’t se Drai going to the AHL as something that historically is done.

Can anyone tell me a single player outside of lockouts that spent draft plus 2 in the AHL as a forward and was also a top 3 or even 5 pick. Players with this pedigree at the draft don’t go the AHL route.

Logan Couture is the closest I can think of myself and 3 overall is different than 9.

—————–

Love these 20 year old CHL players signing AHL only deals. Love them, excellent player procurement.

One area during MacT’s tenure that started happening more. Is it Green ?

Seems like bob green move

I agree that Drai probably makes the team.. He can always be sent down later.. The concern is that he could develop like Kyle Turris and that is worrisome.. I also agree that the oil did Ok by not sending him back sooner as he now knows what it takes.. I bet the Oil were pissed at not having the option of sending him to the A. I actually believe this may become a more popular way to develop young players with top 5 pedigree as most have proven they need better competition.. Burning a year off the ELC is better than losing that extra UFA year and in a lot of cases may actually be the better route .. I suspect we will see more teams doing it this way..

Have a question for you ….. when we talk about draft you advocate BPA and tend to focus on skilled forwards. Now i can understand this view but i also see how few possible top defensemen are traded for almost any price. In this light and also considering organizational need wouldn’t it be better to draft the defense and centers and then trade for wingers?

All skill players still but with higher trade values if they pan out but i can’t see us wanting to trade as having too many centers is oxymoronic and if we can’t see the value of cheap and good defense coming down the pipeline well then

G Money: I agree with pretty much everything else you said, but do want to pick on one point.What I’ve emboldened above is sometimes stated as the reason you shouldn’t send kids back to junior.

I emphatically disagree with this.Minimizing bad habits and working on the good ones is what coaching is for.Players left to ripen, whether in Jr or in AHL, generally come away with better habits, not worse.

Not contradicting this, but just using this as a launching point.

This is where the AHL / Major Junior rule ultimately fails a group of players. I think it’s important to find the ‘just right challenge’.

Consider the analogy of a child developing. If you give my toddler a game / toy / task that is way below is developmental level, he either finishes it easily and moves on (being generally bored by it) or starts getting silly with it and trying to make it more interesting. If you give him a game / toy / task that is way above his developmental level, he gets frustrated and loses interest. If you give him something that is at the ‘just right’ level, where he can’t accomplish it right away, but he’s close, then it’ll keep is attention for a lot longer than anything else. Those ‘just-right’ challenges are highly motivating and you’ll see him ‘zone in’ on trying to get that puzzle piece to fit because he know he’s close.

Now, elite athletes are not toddlers, but I think the same general rule applies to all learners. If it’s way too hard, it’s just plain frustrating. Throw me in an advanced physics class and watch me flounder, if I’m highly internally motivated to figure it out. On the other side, putting me at a level where I can have a lot of success while only pushing myself to 80-90% of my ability isn’t optimal development either.

Finding that level for players where they’re challenged without being crushed… where they can’t have success if they glide, but they can if they push… that’s the trick.

Draisaitl was doing some things well in the NHL, but he clearly wasn’t having great success. He did an absolutely phenomenal job in Junior. I can’t help but think that the AHL would have been the perfect fit for him this season. He wouldn’t have destroyed the league, but he probably wouldn’t have been swamped either. Maybe that would’ve been the just-right challenge. Damn those Junior / AHL rules.

Leon needs a full year in the AHL. He absolutely showed his offensive ability and skill this year but he is not ready to play a significant role in the big league at this point in his career. I think he lacks a certain amount of explosiveness and first step speed which is why he struggled so much at the NHL level this year. Playing against men for a whole (or even half a year) season will do him a world of good.

Realistically we are nor going to compete for a championship next year so we have to ask ourselves what can we do to develop this player in the best way possible long term?

I get he is ranked 93 by central
but gawd he is big at 210 and 6 foot
fast and competes hard
An offensively active defenceman who works a power dynamic; he is able to win battles against larger opponents through outworking them, and is able to skate with the speediest of smaller opponents. Responsible defensively, but decision making does need some work. All-in-all, an intelligent, hard-working defenceman that is constantly alert in all three zones and willing to do battle with any and all opponents. (Curtis Joe, EP 2014) – See more at: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=86137#sthash.W6Cy0HhN.dpuf

I am curious why people think Lack would be available. I think Vancouver would like to move Miller instead.

Also I can see it now. Oilers trade their high second round pick and Marincin to the Rangers for Talbot., Sather gets a ready to plug in cheap and big defensemen and picks up Kylington who drops because he wanted more playing time and was alright moving to a lower league to get it, but you are supposedly not allowed to do that. Talbot takes a look at a defensive tandem of Andrew Ference and Nikitin or Schultz and falls apart in two weeks.

Not sure what you meant by “Hemsky light” but if you meant he scores only about 1/2 as much as Hemsky, then I agree.

Or is it that Tkachev only Weighs about 1/2 as much as Hemsky.

I saw Tkachev real bad at Memorial Cup, would not spend a draft choice on him. Prima donna in a 140-pound package, not exactly an ideal scenario. Little guys have to be able to bring it ALL the time, e.g. Tyler Johnson, MSL, Theo Fleury as pipsqueaks who made/are making it big. Little guys that float, or worse, who sulk when things go against them, are not going to make it.

Maybe he’s in for a late growth spurt, but for now he looks about 12 and during that snit he had in the first Rimouski game he also Acted about 12. Thanks but no thanks.

Agreed. AHL would probably have been the ideal fit. Even the Jrs have an ‘exceptional player’ exemption a la McDavid and and Ekblad that lets younger players move up faster. It’s ludicrous to think that a player is eligible for the NHL but not the AHL.

That said, I don’t think it is likely we’ll find LD has been ‘harmed’ by his time in Dub, any moreso than McDavid putting up his monstrous numbers would have been.

In regards to Leon,
Do you know one of the main reasons why the 2003 draft class was outstanding?
The 2004-2005 NHL lockout forced teams to play their top prospects at a lower level.
Some like Horton, Staal, Fleury, Vanek, Suter, played a full season in the AHL.
Others like Coburn, Getzlaf, Phaneuf, Carter, Seabrook, Perry further developed in the CHL.
A full year of Leon learning the 200 foot game, while working on his foot speed and how to dominate men in the AHL will only help and not hurt his long term development.
I would rather see an all around complete player with no foot speed issues, capable of playing wing or centre enter the lineup in the fall of 2016 than see a flawed player jump into the deep end and hope his line mates can keep him afloat while he learns on the fly in the fall of 2016.

Ca$h-McMoney!: Skating isn’t a plus or a minus, it’s fine (but it’s clearly the area where he is working the hardest, noticeably better end of season vs. start).

Hardest shot on the team, meanest player but I’m not sure if that comes naturally or if that is him realizing what’s going to get him to the next level.

Really appears to dislike Musil, those two basically cross checked each other for 60 minutes each time they played.

Quite an exceptional young man on top of all of that.Someone should pick him, I’ll be overjoyed if it’s us.

Not directed specifically at Cash McMoney but just a general request for folks to occasionally drop the name of the guy you are talking about. As an example neither this comment nor the RtB one it cited ever mentioned that the guy under discussion was (I think) Andrew Nielson, who apparently doesn’t like (I think) Adam Musil.

So many names out there at this time of year, it’s hard for an old fart to keep them straight.

I don’t see the negatives you do …. 6 foot and 185 isn’t a giant but not small either. As for his skating the scouting reports i read say he is an “outstanding skater, and shows great mobility both forwards and backwards, as well as the strong edge work and agility to cover all areas in the defensive zone, and walk the line in the offensive zone.”
Also his other assets include
“Very solid puck handler who is strong on his carries but also precision-like in his outlets and set-ups.”
“makes terrific passes and rarely has anything intercepted”
“uses his strength on defense to play physically down low and contain his man”
“developing a hard one-timer, and understands that by keeping it low and on net, he creates second chance opportunities”

If Leon had a choice in this, do you think he would have a better experience playing for a last place German squad where they all knew they would lose handily or rather make some big league dollars, challenge yourself and travel with the big league team?

Ca$h-McMoney!: On that topic, if we had sent Leon down after 9 games he wouldn’t have won the WHL championship and he wouldn’t have been memorial cup MVP. Prince Albert would have been good enough that they wouldn’t have traded him and bad enough that they wouldn’t have beaten the Brandon/Kelowna/Portland/Calgary’s of the league.
I don’t know if this makes keeping him the right choice, but it’s worth noting.

This is a Very good point. Leon had a GREAT developmental season: 3 months of NHL, 2½ months of WHL, 2 months of WHL playoffs, 2 weeks of tournament. Oilers were playing a dangerous game but did not have the AHL option as many have noted, and did not burn a year of control. He’ll just come up for his bridge deal one year earlier, and in his first year of ELC didn’t exactly do a lot for his bargaining position in 2017. If they had dumped him after 9 games they’d potentially be paying him $3.4 MM with bonuses in 2017-18, how much more than that will the bridge deal be?

I do not share the concern about holding him out of the World Junior, I don’t buy into the hype of that tournament somehow being “better” or “more important” than the NHL. Leon would have played on a weak sister (for the third time, mind) and likely got blown out worse than he did here. He hung around Edmonton instead, got a few more weeks of NHL experience & 1 or 2 extra paycheques, then went to Kelowna just as the WJHC was winding down.

I think it worked out pretty well, “whether by good luck or good management” as my Mum used to say is in the eye of the beholder. Many here would choose Door No 1. But Draisaitl will be much more prepared for training camp come September.

If Leon had a choice in this, do you think he would have a better experience playing for a last place German squad where they all knew they would lose handilyor rather make some big league dollars, challenge yourself and travel with the big league team?

Fortinbras beat me to this point while I was writing. I have written at CoH that it wouldn’t surprise me if Draisaitl was consulted, & if I were in his shoes I would have said “nein” to WJHC if it hastened the departure from the NHL. Hardly a non-factor that this was his first experience drawing a Real pay cheque.

I’m not raining on the Roy parade other than it’s all about control in the D zone. Decision is for three years down the road and the needs of the team at that time. Either trade the pick for a now player or choose the best option for the future with consideration of your team assets.

Then Carlo made the US team, so ranked highly there.

The Oilers should be building a team for two years down the road. For example drafting a small gifted centre is a future trade chip not a building block for the team.

I see what you are saying but respectfully disagree. I think if you want to compete in 2 or 3 years then free agents will get us where we need. We desperately need a line of prospects that will develop and fill holes during elc’s or low cost bridge contracts as the years go on.

Bos8: I don’t think it’s a huge reach at all considering the Oiler needs, especially a complement to Nurse.

It’s a reach because he is not ranked that highly on nearly all scouting lists due to a lack of offense. Basically, he’s not going to be the best player available at #16, so picking him in that spot is a mistake. I think of the Alex Plante selection and my blood runs cold.

The player type that he represents is a current need and there is no way to predict future need. Carlo will not be NHL ready for at least 3 years in a best case scenario and more likely will require up to five years before he is really ready to contribute. Who knows what the blueline will look like at that time. The Oilers could always trade down to target him but I think that they’d be making a big mistake.

frjohnk: I wonder because San Jose picks 9th, 39th then their next pick is 106th would they want more picks in the top 100.
If Werenski is available at 9th do picks 16th, 57th and 79th get us to 9th? And is the gap between Werenski and the 4th best defender worth the 57th and 79th pick?

Thanks for the analogy to the previous Oiler draft and the SJ idea. Would love to see them make an aggressive play for Werenski and was wondering last night about the price. I was thinking #16 and #33 (I would do that) but like your math better…

Bag of Pucks:
Sorry to thread jack for a second. GMoney, can you please refresh my memory on that ultimate coffee maker you were discussing a couple week’s back. Wife’s birthday coming up and she LOVES the Java.

Two different ones to suggest to you, actually.

The whole thing kicked off when posted that I was enjoying some Kicking Horse coffee and VanOil, giving me mad respect for my choice of Java, suggested I should try an Espro, which is a beautiful plunger pot coffee maker with a super duper microfilter.

During my research prior to buying, I also heard lots of rave reviews for the Aeropress, so I ended up buying them both.

Conclusions:

– you can’t go wrong with either, both make delicious coffee

– the Aeropress is cheaper, easier to clean, and easier and quicker when making one cup. It’s ugly though, with several different pieces involved, and making multiple cups is a bit of a pain

– the Espro is a nice attractive stainless steel pot with plunger, and can make more cups (depending on which size you get) with no additional effort. It’s made in Vancouver.

– Flavourwise, as mentioned, they are both terrific (rich but not bitter), but the Aeropress does tend towards a ‘drip’ type of taste, while the Espro gives you the ‘french press’ type of taste. I’m told the difference is in the volatile coffee oils. I like them both, but out in coffee-land, there are definitely some strong preferences for one vs the other. Personally, I think they’re arguing over the 1% and forgetting that the other 99% is outstanding either way!

– These days, I find myself making one cup using the Aeropress but multiple cups (weekends) with the Espro. As an added bonus, the Espro is double walled and will keep the extra mugs hot for an hour+, making for an excellent lounging-on-the-deck-with-coffee experience.

Bruce McCurdy: Fortinbras beat me to this point while I was writing. I have written at CoH that it wouldn’t surprise me if Draisaitl was consulted, & if I were in his shoes I would have said “nein” to WJHC if it hastened the departure from the NHL. Hardly a non-factor that this was his first experience drawing a Real pay cheque.

Could be, but there is a terrific amount of national pride involved here. I don’t think any of the players there, including our handful of multi-millionaire star Cdn Jr players (trying to remember if there were any this year), get any money out of it. They play for other reasons, and Dr. Drai has his NHL contract in hand, and in the long term he’s going to be paid no matter what.

And although true that the German team would likely have been crushed anyway, I think
a. Dr. Drai would likely have been one of their most, if not most, talented players, and playing on the first line against world class Jr players is going to be valuable no matter what
b. Germany was relegated, and I’m sure LD feels down that he might have helped at least prevent that from happening.

nelson88: Thanks for the analogy to the previous Oiler draft and the SJ idea. Would love to see them make an aggressive play for Werenski and was wondering last night about the price. I was thinking #16 and #33 (I would do that)but like your math better…

I would definitely be on board with a move to target Werenski. If #16 and #33 was the basis of a trade that could land ZW, they should pull the trigger. I doubt if Colorado would let him get past them at #10, though.

LT making the case that drafting at D at #16 is poor process? I’m not sure the data supports that. What data supports the argument that the comparable F at that slot is head and shoulders better as a prospect than the D equivalent?

And if you can land the best G prospect in the draft at #33 or flip that pick for a legitimated tender like Lack, where’s the flaw in that thinking? G is a position of need. Getting the best prospect at that position is competent management regardless of positional draft biases.

I’m reading Moneyball again and it’s interesting to note that one of the reasons that Beane deviated from conventional draft rankings is it gave him a negotiation wedge to keep procurement costs below market value. In drafting players far higher than were they were projected, he could secure them at a contract discount below what he would have to pay a blue chip talent more akin to the consensus.

In fact, if the As had not been so cash strapped, Beane could have far better outperformed the draft by getting the best talent early when everyone else is seizing it and then drafting his overlooked jewels in later rounds when they’d still have been available.

Back to hockey, there’s a group of 4G prospects rated worthy of an early 2nd round pick based on consensus rankings. Drafting one at #33 is not a mistake, not if you’re serious about putting the best talent in your pipeline at every position. Cling to this ‘ goaltending is voodoo’ meme and all you accomplish is a late round, lottery ticket approach to youth procurement for the most vital position on the ice.

The whole thing kicked off when posted that I was enjoying some Kicking Horse coffee and VanOil, giving me mad respect for my choice of Java, suggested I should try an Espro, which is a beautiful plunger pot coffee maker with a super duper microfilter.

During my research prior to buying, I also heard lots of rave reviews for the Aeropress, so I ended up buying them both.

Conclusions:

– you can’t go wrong with either, both make delicious coffee

– the Aeropress is cheaper, easier to clean, and easier and quicker when making one cup.It’s ugly though, with several different pieces involved, and making multiple cups is a bit of a pain

– the Espro is a nice attractive stainless steel pot with plunger, and can make more cups (depending on which size you get) with no additional effort.It’s made in Vancouver.

– Flavourwise, as mentioned, they are both terrific (rich but not bitter), but the Aeropress does tend towards a ‘drip’ type of taste, while the Espro gives you the ‘french press’ type of taste.I’m told the difference is in the volatile coffee oils.I like them both, but out in coffee-land, there are definitely some strong preferences for one vs the other.Personally, I think they’re arguing over the 1% and forgetting that the other 99% is outstanding either way!

– These days, I find myself making one cup using the Aeropress but multiple cups (weekends) with the Espro. As an added bonus, the Espro is double walled and will keep the extra mugs hot for an hour+, making for an excellent lounging-on-the-deck-with-coffee experience.

Thanks G, you da man. Sounds like the Espro is the best fit for my lil lady.

LT making the case that drafting at D at #16 is poor process? I’m not sure the data supports that. What data supports the argument that the comparable F at that slot is head and shoulders better as a prospect than the D equivalent?

And if you can land the best G prospect in the draft at #33 or flip that pick for a legitimated tender like Lack, where’s the flaw in that thinking? G is a position of need. Getting the best prospect at that position is competent management regardless of positional draft biases.

I’m reading Moneyball again and it’s interesting to note that one of the reasons that Beane deviated from conventional draft rankings is it gavehim a negotiation wedge to keep procurement costs below market value. In drafting players far higher than were they were projected, he could secure them at a contract discount below what he would have to pay a blue chip talent more akin to the consensus.

In fact, if the As had not been so cash strapped, Beane could have far better outperformed the draft by getting the best talent early when everyone else is seizing it and then drafting his overlooked jewels in later rounds when they’d still have been available.

Back to hockey, there’s a group of 4G prospects rated worthy of an early 2nd round pick based on consensus rankings.Drafting one is not a mistake, not if you’re serious about putting the best talent in your pipeline at every position. Cling to this ‘ goaltending is voodoo’ meme and all you accomplish is a late round, lottery ticket approach to youth procurement for the most vital position on the ice.

Why not just let Billy Beane draft goalies for the Oilers? Problem solved.

J.Huburdeau can get added to the list also. I doubt Draisaitl has an impact next season. I feel he is not nearly as untouchable as some make him out to be. If he could be packaged for OEL I would do it in a heartbeat.

Number ten on that list is Tyson Baillie. Played with Draisaitl much of the season. He’s a closer, likes to score goals, he isn’t shy, and I know the family well, comes from great stock (on his fathers side).

The whole thing kicked off when posted that I was enjoying some Kicking Horse coffee and VanOil, giving me mad respect for my choice of Java, suggested I should try an Espro, which is a beautiful plunger pot coffee maker with a super duper microfilter.

During my research prior to buying, I also heard lots of rave reviews for the Aeropress, so I ended up buying them both.

Conclusions:

– you can’t go wrong with either, both make delicious coffee

– the Aeropress is cheaper, easier to clean, and easier and quicker when making one cup.It’s ugly though, with several different pieces involved, and making multiple cups is a bit of a pain

– the Espro is a nice attractive stainless steel pot with plunger, and can make more cups (depending on which size you get) with no additional effort.It’s made in Vancouver.

– Flavourwise, as mentioned, they are both terrific (rich but not bitter), but the Aeropress does tend towards a ‘drip’ type of taste, while the Espro gives you the ‘french press’ type of taste.I’m told the difference is in the volatile coffee oils.I like them both, but out in coffee-land, there are definitely some strong preferences for one vs the other.Personally, I think they’re arguing over the 1% and forgetting that the other 99% is outstanding either way!

– These days, I find myself making one cup using the Aeropress but multiple cups (weekends) with the Espro. As an added bonus, the Espro is double walled and will keep the extra mugs hot for an hour+, making for an excellent lounging-on-the-deck-with-coffee experience.

Sorry about jumping in prior to your response. I’ll echo the praise on Kicking Horse coffee, especially with the frequent sales at Safeway.

I use the Aeropress when travelling/camping and the Moccamaster at home for the last five years. Pricey, but well worth it for the quality and simplicity. Side note – I’d recommend the Baratza Encore coffee grinder as a reasonable buy.

Wasn’t aware of the Espro but it sounds intriguing. All these are better than the Keurig single cup which I consider a total rip.

The funny thing about this time of year is watching LT wrestle with his rational reason (now is the time to trade picks for legitimate NHLers to maximize the value of Connor’s entry deal) vs his more emotional attachment to prospects and potential.

Yes, this a deep draft but all that does is reduce the probability of these prospects failing to meet their potential. It doesn’t eliminate that possibility.

Draft hype is in full swing and once again we’re convincing ourselves that everyone of these lottery tickets is a sure fire winner again. Bollocks.

Success in this draft for me is McDavid, trading #16 for a legimitate vet D on a value contract, trading #33 for a vet G (Anderson, Lack, etc.) and then hopefully unearthing some two way depth contributors in the later rounds. And if they can’t trade #33 for a vet G, they can use that pick to acquire the very best G prospect in the draft. Not a bad fallback position.

Have a question for you ….. when we talk about draft you advocate BPA and tend to focus on skilled forwards.Now i can understand this view but i also see how few possible top defensemen are traded for almost any price.In this light and also considering organizational need wouldn’t it be better to draft the defense and centers and then trade for wingers?

All skill players still but with higher trade values if they pan out but i can’t see us wanting to trade as having too many centers is oxymoronic and if we can’t see the value of cheap and good defense coming down the pipeline well then

Because Oilers

Andersson is an interesting guy, I think he might be a draft steal and if Edmonton takes him at No. 33 I’d be fine with it. Roy would be a good pick too, but I’m not sure he’s the offensive player EDM is looking for there (and the reason I mentioned Beauvillier as being the better choice if they’re going to devote themselves to getting max value).

Bag of Pucks:
The funny thing about this time of year is watching LT wrestle with his rational reason (now is the time to trade picks for legitimate NHLers to maximize the value of Connor’s entry deal) vs his more emotional attachment to prospects and potential.

Yes, this a deep draft but all that does is reduce the probability of these prospects failing to meet their potential. It doesn’t eliminate that possibility.

Draft hype is in full swing and once again we’re convincing ourselves that everyone of these lottery tickets is a sure fire winner again. Bollocks.

Successin this draft for me is McDavid, trading #16 for a legimitate vet D on a value contract, trading #33 for a vet G (Anderson, Lack, etc.) and then hopefully unearthing some two way depth contributors in the later rounds. And if they can’t trade #33 for a vet G, they can use that pick to acquire the very best G prospect in the draft. Not a bad fallback position.

Yep, totally on point

Do a study for this year plus two as to the best value with all the factors involved including cost, personnel weaknesses etc. This is where I came up with Carlo.

Chia has a two year window to work with prior to top echelon team. Building blocks are critical for that time frame.

wheatnoil: Not contradicting this, but just using this as a launching point.

This is where the AHL / Major Junior rule ultimately fails a group of players. I think it’s important to find the ‘just right challenge’.

Consider the analogy of a child developing. If you give my toddler a game / toy / task that is way below is developmental level, he either finishes it easily and moves on (being generally bored by it) or starts getting silly with it and trying to make it more interesting. If you give him a game / toy / task that is way above his developmental level, he gets frustrated and loses interest. If you give him something that is at the ‘just right’ level, where he can’t accomplish it right away, but he’s close, then it’ll keep is attention for a lot longer than anything else. Those ‘just-right’ challenges are highly motivating and you’ll see him ‘zone in’ on trying to get that puzzle piece to fit because he know he’s close.

Now, elite athletes are not toddlers, but I think the same general rule applies to all learners. If it’s way too hard, it’s just plain frustrating. Throw me in an advanced physics class and watch me flounder, if I’m highly internally motivated to figure it out. On the other side, putting me at a level where I can have a lot of success while only pushing myself to 80-90% of my ability isn’t optimal development either.

Finding that level for players where they’re challenged without being crushed… where they can’t have success if they glide, but they can if they push… that’s the trick.

Draisaitl was doing some things well in the NHL, but he clearly wasn’t having great success. He did an absolutely phenomenal job in Junior. I can’t help but think that the AHL would have been the perfect fit for him this season. He wouldn’t have destroyed the league, but he probably wouldn’t have been swamped either. Maybe that would’ve been the just-right challenge. Damn those Junior / AHL rules.

Totally agree.

And I think there’s at least one current Oiler whose development was harmed by too much time dominating in the minors – Schultz.

He spent 4 years playing in Jr A and college where he was always one of the, if not the, best skaters and most skilled players on the ice. He didn’t need to (and perhaps wasn’t asked to) develop good defensive habits because he could count on his skills to bail him out. The past two and a half years have likely been the first time in his life he’s had to play against players who are more skilled than he is. And it’s been a pretty rough ride (not helped by the way the Oilers use him).

I suspect that if he moved to the AHL in his draft +2 season instead of coasting in college for two more years, he would have been much better prepared for the NHL when he got there (though he’d have been a Duck if that had happened).

And I think there’s at least one current Oiler whose development was harmed by too much time dominating in the minors – Schultz.

He spent 4 years playing in Jr A and college where he was always one of the, if not the, best skaters and most skilled players on the ice. He didn’t need to (and perhaps wasn’t asked to) develop good defensive habits because he could count on his skills to bail him out. The past two and a half years have likely been the first time in his life he’s had to play against players who are more skilled than he is. And it’s been a pretty rough ride (not helped by the way the Oilers use him).

I suspect that if he moved to the AHL in his draft +2 season instead of coasting in college for two more years, he would have been much better prepared for the NHL when he got there (though he’d have been a Duck if that had happened).

That’s kind of what happened with Tom Poti too, although the issue there was he played two college seasons and then came right to the NHL. I’m not certain Poti would have become a good defender with an AHL season, but he was lost early as an NHL D and was always chaotic (through a long career) at that part of the game.

I am reminded of a scene from the second Matrix film (have looked to find it on Youtube to no avail) where Neo, Trinity and Morpheus get into the elevator after meeting the M. Reaves sarcastically quips that their encounter went well and Fishbourne states “What happened couldn’t have happened any other way.” Neo asks “Why?” and the retort was “We are still alive.”

What I mean by bad habits, in this context however, was something that would probably be the same wherever he went. Relying on his physical gifts to overwhelm the boys he would play against.

One of the options I recall being actively considered was Europe. Some of that was a threat to leverage PA to get busy trading his rights but some of it was, IMHO, a legit effort to find MEN that Leon could play against since the CHL rules prevented him from being sent to the AHL.

No matter how expertly Leon would move into traffic, shielding the puck, as he made a play into the blue-paint, his development would be undermined because he was making this play against 16 and 17 year olds who simply didn’t have the physical attributes to mimic what he would and will face in the NHL.

The AHL and Europe will not be able to replicate Seabrook, or Doughty or Weber in terms of skill set but they can put a 6’3″-6’5″ 225lb d-man in your path. Much harder the Sega your way to a goal when you are playing against full-sized opposition and absent that your body learns bad habits.

Carlo does have a big shot and is considered an excellent skater. The main attribute is that he is aggresive which with his skating, size and positioning dominates the D zone. Top end passing isn’t developed.

I’m happy to have that kind of scoring on the 50 man list. That out performs most of the Oilers forward prospects going back some distance.

And, pace Bruce, I’ve seen Tkachev good on several occasions.

You can’t just average a guys’ numbers especially when one year is a small sample size and the next year the numbers drop significantly. No one is going to buy that number. I hate it when people try to average things out that shouldnt be averaged or try to extrapolate things. It is similar logic to: Well since I got married 8 years ago that means I will be married 4 more times in the next 32 years.

That’s the thing, it’s not a “pick” so much as it’s a “bet”. “Pick” implies, at least to me, having a higher degree of certainty as to where things end up than does “bet”. While I think scouts have some insight, I think their abilities to forecast players is overstated. It’s not betting in the lottery ticket sense, it’s betting in the poker/blackjack sense.

I don’t know anything about the players you are discussing, but a bad bet at 16 can be a good bet at 33, and a great bet past 50. It’s the same player, the ultimate result 5 years later doesn’t change, but that doesn’t really impact whether it’s a good bet or bad bet (unless you think Scout’s have more ability to pick than I do).

That’s why I think Marco Roy was a good bet, even if I don’t think we should sign him to a 2 way deal today. I still make that bet next time as I think it was wise at the time.

Agreed on both counts. I find I like Three Sisters (more than Pacific Pipeline) for medium roast, and I like Grizzly Claw (more than 454 Horsepower) for the dark roast. But that truly is very subjective.

And water helps too. I use RO water at home, but at the cabin I’m stuck with Brita (though I suspect the mountain stream source and the surroundings help).

I can see why you like Beauvillier ….. took a look at a shift by shift video from a game this year and he does impress.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycp2E_iaZqY
he is caught jultzing on the game tying goal here and just waving his stick at the puck but 24 minutes in a game for a lw/c in all situations is nice as he does go hard almost every shift. Certainly a goal scorer. I still think that despite leaving offence on the draft board the Oil would be better off long term with the defenseman who has a good shot.

I think, though, sometimes people forget how big some of these kids are getting to be, especially on D.

Of the teams Kelowna faced in the playoffs, the Tri-City Americans had the smallest D at 6’1 and 188 lbs.

The biggest were the Winterhawks, average 6’1 and 199 lbs, with four players over 200 lbs, and the Oshawa Generals, 6′ 3″ and 199 lbs. But the latter is a little deceptive as they had the monstrous Jarret Meyer at 6’9″ and 240 lbs.

I find that funny, because the Oilers Top 4 D last year averaged 6’2″ and 190 lbs.

Bag of Pucks:
The funny thing about this time of year is watching LT wrestle with his rational reason (now is the time to trade picks for legitimate NHLers to maximize the value of Connor’s entry deal) vs his more emotional attachment to prospects and potential.

I don’t agree with this characterization, because it’s theoretically possible that the optimal course of action involves filling all needs via UFA AND drafting with all your picks to help, hopefully, improve the long term potential of the club.

Yes, this a deep draft but all that does is reduce the probability of these prospects failing to meet their potential. It doesn’t eliminate that possibility.

Draft hype is in full swing and once again we’re convincing ourselves that everyone of these lottery tickets is a sure fire winner again. Bollocks.

Success in this draft for me is McDavid, trading #16 for a legitimate vet D on a value contract, trading #33 for a vet G (Anderson, Lack, etc.) and then hopefully unearthing some two way depth contributors in the later rounds. And if they can’t trade #33 for a vet G, they can use that pick to acquire the very best G prospect in the draft. Not a bad fallback position.

I don’t think anyone thinks that picks 16, 33, and 57 are sure fire winners. I do think it’s possible that the expected value for each of the 3 picks is higher than that whatever you can acquire for the pick via trade.

It is certainly possible that shifting some of that value forward by moving the picks for players now has merit, but it depends on the deal and the other options available.

grim.oil: J.Huburdeau can get added to the list also. I doubt Draisaitl has an impact next season. I feel he is not nearly as untouchable as some make him out to be. If he could be packaged for OEL I would do it in a heartbeat.

Huberdeau doesn’t fit.

We are looking for examples of Top forward picks that went CHL – AHL – NHL the higher the pick the better

Strome is the best example. Not sure what his eligibility is next year but I don’t see Dal Colle playing on the Islanders, whether he’s back in the CHL or the AHL isn’t clear to me. Either way the idea is to let a top 5 pick simmer, which I suspect the Islanders will do.

How weird is it that I’m advocating following the mold of the Garth Snow led Islanders? It still blows my mind how quickly they changed course, once the ship started turning.

pocession charge: I would definitely be on board with a move to target Werenski.If #16 and #33 was the basis of a trade that could land ZW, they should pull the trigger.I doubt if Colorado would let him get past them at #10, though.

I think the draft is too deep, and the difference in talent between #9 and #16 is too slim to trade up. The player at #16 is probably in the same basic talent tier as the player at #9.

And it is far too costly to trade up in June.

The Oilers should not draft a goaltender with #33. If one falls to #57, okay. I can live with that. Chiarelli only drafted Subban high as a goaltender because it was a pathetically weak draft.

I could live with #33 for Talbot. If #16 is going to the Rangers, Talbot and Staal have to be coming back in the deal. i.e. say #16 and Marincin for Talbot and Staal.

Agreed on both counts.I find I like Three Sisters (more than Pacific Pipeline) for medium roast, and I like Grizzly Claw (more than 454 Horsepower) for the dark roast.But that truly is very subjective.

And water helps too.I use RO water at home, but at the cabin I’m stuck with Brita (though I suspect the mountain stream source and the surroundings help).

” He’s chubby…not a very good skater, not very good defensively…not very tall. Pronman is out to lunch on that choice…any of the scouts I have talked to about him wouldn’t look at him before the third round…let alone the first. Don’t like him.”

If you look carefully at Tkachev’s numbers he played only 20 games in his draft year. This year he was exactly a point per game player for Quebec. The time he was above a point a game player is based on 13 games.

It makes no sense to spend a pick on Tkachev . He doesn’t put up enough points to ever play a top 6, PP position. He isn’t going to be an effective checker (quick name all the NHL checking forwards that are 5″8″ and 150 lbs)(he was just +9 in 43 game this year) and he sure isn’t going to be a physical presence. He was benched in the last game in the Memorial Cup.

Compare his “math” to guys like Garland (I mentioned him above) or Gaudreau or Tyler Johnson or even Mitch Holmberg. He is not even close.

I honestly think that some people advocate for players that are small because they don’t like the NHL’s bias towards bigger players.

leadfarmer: You can’t just average a guys’ numbers especially when one year is a small sample size and the next year the numbers drop significantly.No one is going to buy that number.I hate it when people try to average things out that shouldnt be averaged or try to extrapolate things.It is similar logic to: Well since I got married 8 years ago that means I will be married 4 more times in the next 32 years.

Ok.

Some pretty basic category errors happening today. Let’s clarify!

If you make a style of play comparison…

is PPG an objection or an addendum?

If you pose it as an objection…

should you at least get your basic facts right?

when challenged on a basic truth (such and such is “half” of such and such)…

is bringing up a separate and apart issue (sample size vs. PPG) an objection or an addendum?

Strome is the best example.Not sure what his eligibility is next year but I don’t see Dal Colle playing on the Islanders, whether he’s back in the CHL or the AHL isn’t clear to me.Either way the idea is to let a top 5 pick simmer, which I suspect the Islanders will do.

How weird is it that I’m advocating following the mold of the Garth Snow led Islanders?It still blows my mind how quickly they changed course, once the ship started turning.

Thats exactly who the Oilers should be looking to copy. Except that the Oil have ALJ, and would potentially make them even better than the Islanders when all is said and done.

2 top 4 defensemen to rid them of TCAF and the double agent, and a proven goaltender that doesnt break the bank.

McKeens scout is really only correct about him being chubby. Well 6’0 isn’t tall but he has the frame of a wrestler. His issue is conditioning and using that crazy ability to gain muscle to get insane leg strength. His skating isn’t fluid but he never really struggles to keep up, even when he was playing against men at 16. His backwards skating actually is a strength.
He’s a kid likely to fall due to not looking pretty when he plays and sometimes tries to do too much and in a somewhat nonchalant fashion which looks awful but when you disregard the polish you find he is far more efficient than he looks. Imho.

Agreed on both counts.I find I like Three Sisters (more than Pacific Pipeline) for medium roast, and I like Grizzly Claw (more than 454 Horsepower) for the dark roast.But that truly is very subjective.

And water helps too.I use RO water at home, but at the cabin I’m stuck with Brita (though I suspect the mountain stream source and the surroundings help).

Thanks for the Three Sisters rec, I’ll try it. I use RO water as well. I;m not partial to dark roast s as too often it’s used to mask the quality of the beans as in Timmy’s.

I would liket to support local roasters but there’s too much trouble maintaining quality and volume for the locals. Every time I find a superior coffee they run our a few months later. The next thing to try is frozen vacuupack. If anyone has tried this, I’d appreciate a comment.

McKeens scout is really only correct about him being chubby. Well 6’0 isn’t tall but he has the frame of a wrestler. His issue is conditioning and using that crazy ability to gain muscle to get insane leg strength. His skating isn’t fluid but he never really struggles to keep up, even when he was playing against men at 16. His backwards skating actually is a strength.
He’s a kid likely to fall due to not looking pretty when he plays and sometimes tries to do too much and in a somewhat nonchalant fashion which looks awful but when you disregard the polish you find he is far more efficient than he looks. Imho.

” He’s chubby…not a very good skater, not very good defensively…not very tall. Pronman is out to lunch on that choice…any of the scouts I have talked to about him wouldn’t look at him before the third round…let alone the first. Don’t like him.”

Yeah, I think there’s something there. Too much noise, he’s a player and it’s only a matter of how much risk a team is willing to take. I wouldn’t take him in round 1, and my rankings suggest he’s not the best at No.33, but I wouldn’t be shocked or upset if EDM grabs him. Skill, baby.

I can see why you like Beauvillier ….. took a look at a shift by shift video from a game this year and he does impress.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycp2E_iaZqY
he is caught jultzing on the game tying goal here and just waving his stick at the puck but 24 minutes in a game for a lw/c in all situations is nice as he does go hard almost every shift.Certainly a goal scorer.I still think that despite leaving offence on the draft board the Oil would be better off long term with the defenseman who has a good shot.

His numbers are crazy, 5.16 shots a game and his 94 points ARE THIRTY more than the next guy on his team. Lordy.

Lowetide: Yeah, I think there’s something there. Too much noise, he’s a player and it’s only a matter of how much risk a teamis willing to take. I wouldn’t take him in round 1, and my rankings suggest he’s not the best at No.33, but I wouldn’t be shocked or upset if EDM grabs him. Skill, baby.

I have Kylington in my top 10 and if I wasn’t afraid of my Swedish bias I’d probably have him higher. Insane skater, challenging for best skater in the draft, elite hands as well, great vision. Still immature both physically and mentally but his upside is absolute elite. Despite having a rough season with several club changes a mid-season injury and not getting ice time in the SHL his point production in each of the three leagues he played in is on par with or better than the elite of swedish D in their draft year. I’m not really buying the high risk tag either, at 16 he played a regular shift in the SHL for the majority of the season, when he wasn’t tearing up the swedish U20 league, he missed the U18 WJC last season because his club needed him in the SHL playoffs. A chaotic draft season doesn’t remove the fact that this is an Elite talent.

I’m not fancy like most of the group. I have a Keurig and drink Pike’s Place or Cafe Verona most of the time, but have a Timmy’s a 1pm as my mid-day bonus (and last coffee of the day). My wife still makes a pot every morning and I have one cup (so I’m basically at three coffee a day).

If Vancouver considers this fair value, this would free up the Oilers to trade away Schultz to another team who may overvalue his services (I feel as if him and Weber are close enough to be considered comparables and Weber is likely to re-sign for cheaper as a replacement) and could be a slight upgrade in net over Bachman who is likely to exit our system.

Given that one of the reasons (one that I share, btw) for not trading Leon Draisaitl is that he will/has the potential to become the next Anze Kopitar.

As a thought experiment, what would the Oilers need to package with Leon and his ELC (if anything) to send to the cap stretched LA Kings to get the 27 year-old Kopitar and the final year of his $6.8 million contract before he becomes a UFA?

I’m thinking clearly and to me PPG means powerplay goals. When I think points per game I think P/G. It is a very handy and useful distinction, and I recommend it heartily to the entire hockey community. Slash means “per”, P means something else.

Fair enough, I’m just telling you what I saw in the Memorial Cup, & it left me cold. I didn’t mind that he got stripped of the puck, Hemsky-style, cruising through the neutral zone, but his utter lack of involvement in the subsequent backcheck — which wound up in a goal by a guy he could have checked — and the whole aftermath just didn’t land well at all. I said on Twitter I’m not a believer in body language particularly but his was Terrible. Right from the moment of the turnover, to the skate of shame, to his subsequent snit on the bench. I’m sorry, the guy is starting out with two strikes against him, if he’s going to be swinging at high & outside pitches I lose interest real fast.

Bruce McCurdy: Fair enough, I’m just telling you what I saw in the Memorial Cup, & it left me cold. I didn’t mind that he got stripped of the puck, Hemsky-style, cruising through the neutral zone, but his utter lack of involvement in the subsequent backcheck — which wound up in a goal by a guy he could have checked — and the whole aftermath just didn’t land well at all. I said on Twitter I’m not a believer in body language particularly but his was Terrible. Right from the moment of the turnover, to the skate of shame, to his subsequent snit on the bench. I’m sorry, the guy is starting out with two strikes against him, if he’s going to be swinging at high & outside pitches I lose interest real fast.

Scouting is hard. We should remember that. Bruce’s reaction is bona fide (Tkachev looked poor) but we have to filter that through an entire season and of course there may be injuries involved. tough gig, scouting.

Lowetide: I’m not fancy like most of the group. I have a Keurig and drink Pike’s Place or Cafe Verona most of the time, but have a Timmy’s a 1pm as my mid-day bonus (and last coffee of the day). My wife still makes a pot every morning and I have one cup (so I’m basically at three coffee a day).

This reminds me of a story:My dad and his pals were (and still are) a rough crew. They used to go camping out in remote areas and drink lots of beer. Us kids got to go along too, although not drink beer. One trip in the 1980s, they brought along a guy who they had met on some residential construction jobs. My dad was a framer – a carpenter. This guy was a plumber and his name was Paul Harvey. Yes, just like the “And now…you know…the rest…of the story” guy. Paul was kind of a punk it turned out, and he was out of his element out in the wild, so he was rubbing the guys the wrong way. So, Judd was making coffee in the morning, but somebody had forgot to bring the prep equipment, so he was boiling water in a pot over the camp fire and looking for something to put the grounds in so they could steep. All he could find was a pair of underwear – “tighty-whities”. So he used those. After a little while, Paul, who was sleeping in, stuck his head out of the tent. Judd, never missing such an opportunity, grabbed the underwear from out of the pot, and with coffee grounds dripping out of them said loudly, “Hey Paul, you want some coffee?”, in his best impression of “The Meanest Man in the World” voice of Jim Varney. Paul quickly retracted his head and didn’t re-emerge from the tent for quite some time. Oh, how we laughed and laughed and still are laughing about that. Paul never accompanied us on another camping trip. It was probably for the best.

Bruce McCurdy: I’m thinking clearly and to me PPG means powerplay goals. When I think points per game I think P/G. It is a very handy and useful distinction,and I recommend it heartily to the entire hockey community. Slash means “per”, P means something else.

Good advice. Happy to take it. Cheers.

(now, the trick will be to remember and implement said tip!)

Bruce McCurdy: Fair enough, I’m just telling you what I saw in the Memorial Cup, & it left me cold. I didn’t mind that he got stripped of the puck, Hemsky-style, cruising through the neutral zone, but his utter lack of involvement in the subsequent backcheck — which wound up in a goal by a guy he could have checked — and the whole aftermath just didn’t land well at all. I said on Twitter I’m not a believer in body language particularly but his was Terrible. Right from the moment of the turnover, to the skate of shame, to his subsequent snit on the bench. I’m sorry, the guy is starting out with two strikes against him, if he’s going to be swinging at high & outside pitches I lose interest real fast.

That’s all fine and good. I didn’t see that game and I’m happy to defer to your reading of it and his poor play therein.

But, that’s a big, ugly moment to make symbolic of a player.

In my viewings, I distinctly remember being surprised by his puck pursuit and protection. I’m not willing to take those impressions as gospel, but I saw enough to think there’s more than simply a offensive-minded, lax on the job, player in there.

And, I’m happy with my general comment: absent any concrete context, Tkachev is welcome at the bottom of my 50 man list any day.

Bruce McCurdy: I’m thinking clearly and to me PPG means powerplay goals. When I think points per game I think P/G. It is a very handy and useful distinction,and I recommend it heartily to the entire hockey community. Slash means “per”, P means something else.

Great thread with a number of solid take aways. 1) Good to see Draisaitl get some recognition for his efforts during the Memorial Cup tourney. 2)Very nice to see Loiselle signed as he should have some potential. 3)Thrilled to see that several posters have recognized the value of a potential trade involving Gordon. 4) Also thrilled that the danger of signing Seabrook to monster contract has been floated as this could be a franchise killer. 5) Glad to see the red flags regarding drafting Jeremy Roy at #16 – scary. 6) Has any thought been given to drafting Gavrikov, the Russian D man who was voted the best D man in the recent U18 tourney. Given what is being discussed with regard to banning Russians from transferring to the NHL until they are 28, this might be a good time to focus on Russian pieces. 7) One last piece is to never, ever draft a player with skating issues. The NHL is moving toward speed and skill and these types will be in trouble. (Musil).