Oh no! The polls! They suddenly don't look good for Barack Obama! But does it really matter at this point? Should the campaignand its supportersstart to panic? We checked in with two Democratic strategists who have different opinions on the situation. Here's the case for pessimism.

The jobless rate is up, home sales are down, and the Democrats have an appealing, history-making nominee. So that rash of McCain red, spreading like measles over the RealClearPolitics.com polling chart, is nothing to worry abouta temporary Republican sugar high, right?

Not so fast. Yes, this year's trends should favor the Democrats, with a poor economy and an unpopular Republican president. But we can't ignore how much the underlying landscape always favors the Republicans.

Sunday night, USA Today released a shocking poll that puts McCain four healthy points above 50%, leading Obama by 54%-44%, with only 2% undecided. Six other polls have McCain narrowly ahead or tied; none has Obama leadinga sharp reversal from last week.

If you hide behind electoral maps or statistical projections at your favorite number-crunching site, and ignore the national polls because "it's 50 state elections," you'll be lulled by projections based on weeks-old data, often conducted by middling polling operations. And you'll miss what's happened.

I was sitting in my office at work a little while ago, thinking about the momentum that McCain has captured, and thinking that now it’s going to take something out of the ordinary to arrest it. Obama knows it, too.

The obvious hit me; there’s no need to speculate on whether or not Biden get’s dumped and Hillary get’s added to the ticket. It WILL happen. Not that I think it necessarily spells disaster for the McCain campaign. But I fully expect it now. It’s the only way they can hope to stop this thing that is just about to get away from them.

“Barack Obama has never needed to win swing voters. His entire career has been based on appealing to core Democratsfrom his organizer days, to his state Senate career, to his 2004 speech to a packed Boston convention hall, and his US Senate race that same year (he had no serious Republican opposition), to his stunning series of primary and caucus victories earlier this year. This results in a certain tin ear when it comes to communicating with the economically anxious, politically disengaged voters who Bill Clinton had such a gift for reaching out to.

But the problem isn't only Obama himself, it's those around him who live in the same bubble, who think a good way to connect with average American voters is to stage a mass rallymore than double the size of Obama’s largest U.S. crowdin a foreign country.”

“The obvious hit me; theres no need to speculate on whether or not Biden gets dumped and Hillary gets added to the ticket. It WILL happen.”

Personally, I don’t think Mrs. Clinton is dumb enough to go along with this. She wants to be President, not VP. Her best chance at this is to let Obama lose. Then she can go head to head with McCain or maybe Palin in 2012. If Obama loses, he will go on the scrap heap of history...he will be through as a politician. I wouldn’t even expect him to run for reelection in the Senate.

10
posted on 09/09/2008 4:02:11 PM PDT
by Sola Veritas
(Trying to speak truth - not always with the best grammar or spelling)

The problem is that doing it is a sign of great weakness in the candidate for POTUS. When they dumped Eagleton it was because he had been nuts and electro shocked out of it. That had nothing to do with McGovern. If they Eagleton Slow Joe it will highlight the very lightweight top of the ticket. They’d probably win, but what good would that do Hillary. Would she slowly vegetate while the haloed one ran the country?A loss after a wooing to join the ticket, in private of course, sets her up for the contest with Saraccuda in 2012.Hillary’s ego tells her she’ll win. No, she sits this one out. The Dems dance with the ones that brung them, as Al McGuire always said.

11
posted on 09/09/2008 4:06:13 PM PDT
by xkaydet65
(Freedom is purchased not with gold, but with steel.)

Clinton would be stupid to do. It would make her look weak
to cave in to them after the way they treated her and she
would forever be associated with Obama , the biggest loser
since ... Dukakis. She has her eyes on 2012.

“The problem is that doing it is a sign of great weakness in the candidate for POTUS. When they dumped Eagleton it was because he had been nuts and electro shocked out of it. That had nothing to do with McGovern. If they Eagleton Slow Joe it will highlight the very lightweight top of the ticket. Theyd probably win, but what good would that do Hillary. Would she slowly vegetate while the haloed one ran the country?A loss after a wooing to join the ticket, in private of course, sets her up for the contest with Saraccuda in 2012.Hillarys ego tells her shell win. No, she sits this one out. The Dems dance with the ones that brung them, as Al McGuire always said.”

Your logic is sound. But I think she won’t be able to resist the temptation to come in and save the ticket, right now. Her ego will be torn. It’s incredibly hard to walk away from the spotlight for these people, even in a calculated way. And if she comes in as the VP candidate, and they lose anyway, I don’t know that she’s any worse off for 2012 than if she sits out. In fact, I’m sure the dem numbers will improve with her on the ticket, and she can point to that as an indicator of what might have been if she had been the nominee.

“The obvious hit me; theres no need to speculate on whether or not Biden gets dumped and Hillary gets added to the ticket. It WILL happen.”

I agree with SV. This will NOT happen. Too many folks look at Hillary as VP from their own perspective rather than Hillary. If she joins the ticket, it would guarantee an dem win. But why would Hillary want that? Wouldn’t she be far better of gambling that by not joining the ticket, she ensures an Obama defeat? And, imagine just how much she would enjoy saying “Told ya”. She would become the dem nominee in 2012 by acclaimation.

And, consider the balance of power should Obama take Hillary as VP and then win the election. How many times would Hillary demand special power because she won the election for Obama? She would exercise more power than he and that would be unacceptable for Obama.

“”Obama is a former smoker, and his parents died young. What if Biden were just a heartbeat away ....?””

Yes, how true. It is also well documented that cocaine and smoking crack (with or without Larry) is very detrimental to the heart and irreparable. Some ER physicians are shocked to discover ‘ 80 yr. old’ hearts in the bodies of young addicts in there 20’s & 30’s. How long did he say he was a drug addict?

So far, the RAT response seems to be to try to drive up Palin's negatives. The only problem with that, is that while their rabid base will eat it up, the voters in the red states that Obama needs are likely to be turned off by it.

Quite an interesting predicament they are in. Lets hope McCain keeps the pressure on them and doesn't give them a chance to regain their footing.

theres no need to speculate on whether or not Biden gets dumped and Hillary gets added to the ticket.

Why would she take the spot?

If BO wins with her on the ticket, she defers her next run at the presidency until 2016--that's a long way off and she's no spring chicken. Even worse, she makes it more likely that BO will win by being his VP. Not in her interest for him to win.

OTOH, if BO loses with her on the ticket, it takes away her luster as the Palin killer. That's the only reason to put her on the ticket and she failed. That makes it less likely she gets the nod against Palin in 2012 or 2016.

We can only hope Obama will drop Biden for someone lame like Sibelius. That will tank his campaign completely because she is so obviously a token added out of panic.

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