TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Sense of calm returns to markets

***Notes/Observations***- Concerns about the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's bond purchaseseased- Euro Working Group meets informally in Rome on to discuss how the European Stability Mechanism would help troubled lenders- Japan: Diet passes further recovery measures. Asia shares rebounding from sharp declines- Japan BOJ releases May 21-22 Meeting Minutes: Members agreed Japan economy has started picking up- India's WPI falls 3 year low adds to mounting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates next week- S&P affirmed Spain's BBB- Sovereign Rating; Outlook Negative.

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, tracking the gains seen in Asia. Government bond yields are broadly lower, as a US financial press report suggested that the Fed could play down the expectations in the markets related to higher short-term rates. Also, peripheral bond yields have moved lower, as S&P affirmed Spain's sovereign rating. European banks are trading mostly higher, while resource-related firms are broadly higher.

Speakers:- S&P affirmed Spain's BBB- Sovereign Rating; Outlook Negative. Spain's commitment to the implementation of a comprehensive fiscal and structural reform agenda remained strong. Outlook remained negative, reflecting the potential for a downgrade if political support for the current reform agenda waned, the budgetary position significantly deteriorated, or if eurozone policies faltered in stabilizing Spain's funding costs. S&P saw real GDP contracting by about 1.5% in 2013 before slowly recovering. - EU's Rehn commented that lack of measures to keep budget deficit in check was Achilles' heel of Belgium and needed livable and workable internal stability pact- EU's Almunia commented that European Commission recommendations on Spain were compatible with growth and the Commission did not have view on Spain extending bank bailout date. There was a need to analyze Spain's low VAT tax take. He reiterated EU had nothing to do with the closure of Greece's TV station ERT and believed Spain could create jobs even with sub-2% GDP growth- Greece Fin Min Stournaras stated that a new broadcaster to open as soon as possible and would be less costly for taxpayers. He noted that Finance Ministry was legal successor to ERT- Germany said to be prepared to take the EU Commission to court over the banking supervisory plan (SSM)- Norway Central Bank survey noted that output growth over the past 3-months had slowed and expected continued moderate growth over the next 6-months- France pension reform advisory panel suggested increasing contribution period to 44 years from 41.5 currently - Poland Central Bank's Winieck believed it should refrain from further interest-rate cuts because their impact on growth remained minimal - Czech Central bank gov Singer stated that he saw main risks coming from anti-inflationary side. Recent Q1 GDP data doesn't change his view of the economy- Turkey Govt spokesperson stated that Istanbul's Gezi Park would remain a park until a final court decision was made. Gezi Park must immediately cease being a place where only a certain group of people can go and live 24 hours a day. Investigation started into excessive use of force against protesters; crimes would be punished according to the law- Thailand Central Bank commented that capital flows would likely to remain volatile and might continue to affect financial markets, it would also closely monitoring rising household debt- Bank of Korea (BoK)'s Chung: South Korean economic recovery was being delayed due to uncertainty both domestically and overseas in the aftermath of the financial crisis- Hong Kong Chief Exec Lenug stated that the Govt would not cut back on property curbs as new supply has not materialized- US considering setting up 'No Fly Zone' in Syria; possible near Jordan border

Currencies/Fixed Income:- FX price action registered calm in trading on Friday as overall risk sentiment improved. Fears over Fed policy tapering eased over the past 24 hours after WSJ article suggested that Bernanke would use next week's meeting to stress that any move lower in the pace of QE won't mean the Fed was close to ending the program.- The USD/JPY pair above the 95 handle after Japan PM Abe's growth plan was passed in which he promised more measures in July.. Markets had been concerned that the bureaucracy was stonewalling PM Abe's economic reforms. Abe did not provide any fresh details to initial announcement last week- The USD was firmer against the major European pairs. The EUR/USD was probing the lower end of the 1.33 handle as the NY morning approached.

- Political/In the Papers:- (EU) ECB's Draghi: The OMT is in line with the ECB's basic statutes and its mandate to preserve price stability, is needed to fix transmission of monetary policy; Higher German bond yields are an important sign of the normalization of conditions for German savers.- (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): Monetary policy will eventually lose its potential to keep prices stable if it is used for fiscal policy ends- (EU) ECB's Mersch: Underlying price pressures are subdued, EMU undergoing a shallow recovery; sees no evidence of broad misalignments of asset prices; Reiterates the ECB is technically prepared to implement negative deposit rates, use of negative deposit rates would depend on the economy.- (EU) ESM's Regling: The Troika structure is not a durable long term solution; Euro Zone nations must deal with bailout programs without the IMF in the long term- (GR) Greece democratic left leader Kouvelis: There is no need for new elections, party is insisting that the ERT decision is overturned- (GR) Fitch comments on Greece banking system; risks remain high but recap has provided some buffer- (GR) Greece Finance Ministry is said to have requested state prosecutor investigate broadcaster ERT - financial press- (CY) Cyprus President Anastasiades: Reports public TV station won't be closed (as Greece did)- Figaro; Wants to see capital controls lifted- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Italy is not planning to conduct any further fiscal tightening programs this year; Government will wait for the German elections in the fall and for markets to stabilize before updating economic forecasts.- (PT) IMF Portugal staff review finds that the public debt condition is very fragile and the political and social consensus is weak; Cannot guarantee that Portugal's debt is sustainable, unclear whether Portugal's debt issuance can achieve the scale that is necessary- (NL) Netherlands Govt set to begin new talks on €6.0B in new austerity measures for 2014 - financial press; Unclear whether €6.0B would be enough to bring the fiscal deficit down to 3% of GDP- (US) WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed is likely to push back against market expectations that rate increases are coming sooner than previously believed- (US) Treasury Sec Lew: US economy has shown that it is resilient, growing around 2%; The global economy needs US growth to be in 3-4% range.- (CN) China Securities Journal front page editorial suggested that concerns about outflows could lead the PBoC to ease policy in H2- (CN) China MOFCOM expects 2013 exports growth rate approx 7% y/y - Chinese press

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