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Searching for the Secret to Attracting the Youth Vote

Maybe it started with Howard Dean, or maybe it was Al Gore, or maybe it was as long ago as when Bill Clinton talked about his underwear on MTV, but campaigns are putting a lot of energy into courting the youth vote. Links to the online hangouts of the under-25 set, YouTube, MySpace and Facebook among them, are all over the candidates’ home pages, especially those of the Democratic candidates. Some campaigns have hired youth vote coordinators to mobilize young voters.

But Web links and vote coordinators aside, are voters under the age of 25 going to turn out in record numbers? History suggests it is unlikely.

Eighteen year-olds cast ballots for president for the first time in 1972, following the ratification of the 26th amendment. Nearly 50 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. Since then, turnout among this age group has varied.

“Since 1972, the trend line for young voters has been relatively stable with peaks and valleys,” said Michael McDonald, professor of government and politics at George Mason University “Turnout among young voters or any group with traditionally low participation depends a lot on how interesting the election itself is.”

One of those peaks, one of those interesting elections, came in 2004. Many political operatives are hoping for a repeat in 2008. Voting among all age groups was up significantly in 2004, up four points from 2000, according to Thom File, a voting analyst with the Census Bureau. But among 18-24 year olds, there was close to an 11 point increase, the greatest increase of any age group. In 2000, 36 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. In 2004, 47 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. (The Census Department has measured turnout in various ways over the years, sometimes including citizens and non-citizens alike. The current numbers are based only on citizens.)

A look at the historical data suggests turnout among the young in 2004 was a lot like 1992, when 47 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. Four years later, in 1996 when Bill Clinton was the incumbent president and was running against Bob Dole, 36 percent of 18-24 year olds cast ballots.

Whether the young turn out to vote in large numbers or not, they tend to favor Democrats. Celinda Lake a Democratic pollster working for Senator Joe Biden, said that in recent Senate races this group often votes 22 percentage points more Democratic than Republican. The exit poll conducted by the television networks and the Associated Press during the 2004 presidential election found that 56 percent of voters in this group voted for John Kerry and 43 percent voted for George W. Bush, a 13 point gap in favor of Mr. Kerry, the Democrat. The poll also found that 18-24 year olds account for just nine percent of the total voters.

Young voters themselves say the issues facing voters in 2008 are compelling. Lawanna Verner a 21 year-old detention officer from Hemingway, South Carolina, said: “The plain fact is that it is important for people in my age group to vote because it’s people our age who are overseas right now fighting in the war.” Ms. Verner, a political independent, participated in a New York Times/CBS News poll last month and was re-interviewed after the poll.

“I think this election is more important because a lot of people are upset with the way things are going now and they really want to see a change,” said Brad Luhn, a 19-year old college student from Thurmont, Maryland. Mr. Luhn said he definitely plans to vote in 2008. “I want to feel like I did something to help.” He said he considers himself a political independent.

In addition to the war and the desire to change the direction of the country, young voters say they are worried about getting their working lives started. They are concerned about jobs, the economy and healthcare. Ms. Lake, the Democratic pollster said that in her research, young voters place “economic issues like college affordability ahead of the war.”

Mr. McDonald, the professor of government and politics, thinks issues may drive high turnout in 2008, but he cautions that much can happen between now and November 2008. “The issues and the closeness of the 2008 election should be favorable to an increase in turnout among young people and people in general,” he said. “But that’s now, things could change, it could look like a blowout and then it would be more like 1996.”

Janet Elder is The Times's editor of news surveys and election analysis.