US Economic Outlook Mid-Year 2016

SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecasted that the U.S. economy will grow 1.8 percent this year, strengthening to 2.3 percent in 2017. The current outlook for 2016 is considerably weaker than the Roundtable’s end-year prediction, mainly due to weaker than expected growth in the first half of the year.

Monetary Policy:

POLICY Over 90 percent of respondents expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to not hike the Federal Reserve’s target rate range at the June 14-15, 2016 meet-ing. When questioned about the timing of the next rate hike, nearly two thirds of re-spondents expected it will occur in the third quarter of 2016, with the balance expecting the fourth quarter of 2016.

Survey respondents were near evenly split as to how many rate hikes they expect in the remainder of 2016: a little under half of the respondents expected only one rate hike, while the remainder expected two.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook, oil prices, Brexit, and the upcoming presidential elections, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.