PC shipments see double-digit rise in 4th quarter

Published 6:00 pm, Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The rapid growth curve for computer shipments in last year's third quarter extended into the year's final months, two technology research firms reported Wednesday.

The U.S. growth rate beat predictions that spending in the U.S. technology sector would slow and eventually hurt overseas tech markets.

And Hewlett-Packard Corp. maintained its slight edge over Dell Inc. as the world's largest computer maker, with little change in market share.

The fourth quarter's increase in computer shipments was roughly in line with the third quarter, when shipments rose at the fastest rate in nearly two years.

Framingham, Mass.-based research firm IDC said shipments in October through December rose 15.5 percent, to 77.4 million units, up from 67 million a year earlier.

Gartner Inc., of Stamford, Conn., pegged the growth at a slightly slower 13.1 percent, with 75.9 million units shipped, up from 67.1 million in last year's fourth quarter.

The two firms use slightly different measurements.

In the third quarter, IDC also reported year-over-year growth of 15.5 percent, while Gartner estimated 14.4 percent.

IDC said U.S. computer shipments grew at a stronger-than-expected 8.8 percent in the fourth quarter, while Gartner put the U.S. gain at 7.2 percent.

IDC said U.S. and global gains were driven by growing popularity of mobile computers as well as shifts into new sales channels by Dell and Taiwan-based Acer Inc. Dell has recently begun selling through large retail chains such as Wal-Mart and Staples, in a departure from its direct-to-customer business model.

"Fourth-quarter results show a very healthy PC market," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker. "There is a lot happening with vendors repositioning their channels and going after new markets, while falling prices and portable adoption continue to drive volume."

The U.S. economic downturn has triggered predictions that U.S. technology spending won't grow as fast as it has _ concerns that were heightened Tuesday after Intel Corp.'s robust profit and sales figures narrowly missed analyst expectations.

The chip.m.aker said the PC business appeared to be healthy and blamed its shortfall on lower-than-expected sales of a type of flash memory found in many digital gadgets.

But IDC said it does expect the growth in PC sales to slow.

"Despite fourth-quarter strength, projections for the next couple years anticipate slower growth," Loverde said. "Rising concerns about economic growth are likely to reduce expectations further, although we're still likely to see double-digit growth through 2008 and probably 2009."

IDC reported that 269 million PCs shipped in 2007, for annual growth of 14.3 percent.

The year "showed a clear indication of the worldwide PC market landscape: strong growth in emerging regions such as Asia/Pacific and slower growth in markets such as the United States," Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa said.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based Hewlett-Packard moved ahead of Dell in late 2006 as the world's largest PC maker, an edge it maintained in last year's fourth quarter.

Both IDC and Gartner put HP's worldwide market share at 19 percent, up from IDC's 17.8 percent market share estimate in the previous year's fourth quarter and Gartner's 17.4 percent estimate. Both research firms said HP posted a 23 percent gain in shipments.

Dell's global share in the latest period stood at 14.6 percent, according to IDC, and 14.5 percent according to Gartner. Round Rock, Texas-based Dell posted a 17 percent rise in shipments.

Under IDC's measure, Acer beat China's Lenovo Group Ltd. for third place in worldwide shipments, with a 9.6 percent share for Acer and 7.5 percent for Lenovo. Gartner gave Acer a slightly smaller lead, at 9.5 percent to Lenovo's 7.7 percent.