From 380 matches... they only used 157 incidents to come up with this table. So they deem there to be less than 1 significant potentially match changing incident in every two Premier League matches. Get in the sea.

"It's great timing for me after making a comment in the Sgt Shitcoats Spawny thread about how I thought the refereeing in the whiskeynose era was dodgy. That got waylaid by all sorts of tangential comments about respecting him and all that, but something I didn't mention there was the way Fergie used to look at a number of refs near the end of a game they were drawing and start pointing at his watch. Some games had 8 added minutes for them to score in. Looks like maybe they still have refs in their pocket after all."

Time and space has to stop at the moment they go ahead or are winning in a game and that would be the final result(it's only fair)

If I didn't know any better I would have said that this is surely not a pool fan since it is an obvious attempt to humiliate them and make them look pathetic. Then I think of things like RAWK and the Alternate league table and it all makes sense.

Got to laugh at the expected goals thing as well since they use that to say "Hey we should be winning every game with these predictive stats" irony is they fail to realise that if they actually believe that then it surely means that Klopp is not getting the best out of their "steller" players with failing to win feck all time and again.

The underlying theme here which everyone seems to have gone unnoticed is that they think they have a divine right to win and everyone else has either cheated them out of it or have serendipity on their side.

From 380 matches... they only used 157 incidents to come up with this table. So they deem there to be less than 1 significant potentially match changing incident in every two Premier League matches. Get in the sea.

Click to expand...

This is exactly why it’s such a joke. They should leave ‘studies’ to competent people. My thesis advicer would throw me out a window if I came up with some shit like this. Like someone else posted, they probably couldn’t believe their luck in being allowed to ‘work’ on this.

You don't win 4-0 by luck, it's 4 bloody goals. Our late goals were also quite well constructed.

I am quite confident that they deem it lucky because Pogba 'should' have been sent off when it would have been quite a harsh second yellow (City get away with those fouls every game).

Click to expand...

https://ok.ru/video/346636225109
here's the extended HL
At 0:0 Swansea almost scored a fluke goal - if that went in Swansea would have gone full park the bus mode. They were already playing really defensively the whole match till the 80th min when the tried to go for it and opened up at the back - thats when the goals started coming for us.

https://ok.ru/video/346636225109
here's the extended HL
At 0:0 Swansea almost scored a fluke goal - if that went in Swansea would have gone full park the bus mode. They were already playing really defensively the whole match till the 80th min when the tried to go for it and opened up at the back - thats when the goals started coming for us.

Click to expand...

So if Swansea scored a fluke goal we would have struggled? Do you know the implications of that? It means we would have been unlucky.

I think you are also missing the detail of us scoring from a corner at the end of the 1st half. Dead ball situations are much less affected by the game state than open play, even if Swansea were up and parked the bus that set piece goal would have probably happened anyway since we would be the ones attacking.

So if Swansea scored a fluke goal we would have struggled? Do you know the implications of that? It means we would have been unlucky.

I think you are also missing the detail of us scoring from a corner at the end of the 1st half. Dead ball situations are much less affected by the game state than open play, even if Swansea were up and parked the bus that set piece goal would have probably happened anyway since we would be the ones attacking.

Click to expand...

And if Pogba got a second yellow - which he deservedly should have? what then?

edit: You should also know we're pretty bad at coming back when behind

This is just great prep for the boom-bust cycle. Meltdown incoming immediately after the first "wrong decision", and it will be blown out of proportion. Now with a right class case study to back up their claims of unjust, how is it not something to entirely focus on during this season.

And if Pogba got a second yellow - which he deservedly should have? what then?

edit: You should also know we're pretty bad at coming back when behind

Click to expand...

Maybe you just ignored what I wrote since I already addressed that?

That was a debateable yellow card; it was at the edge of Swansea's box and we had plenty of cover. If Pogba 'should' have been sent off then City would get a couple of red cards a game since they do those type of challenges several times a game unpunished.

https://ok.ru/video/346636225109
here's the extended HL
At 0:0 Swansea almost scored a fluke goal - if that went in Swansea would have gone full park the bus mode. They were already playing really defensively the whole match till the 80th min when the tried to go for it and opened up at the back - thats when the goals started coming for us.

Click to expand...

Maybe they felt Pogba should have got a 2nd yellow when the score was 0-0

Ok, so 3 people who are coders determine just by watcing the games which incidents are possibly incorrect. Straight away I have questions. How are they what is controversial? Also only 3 so that's roughly 126 matches each so not only is there room in error regarding if they catch an incident or not but also how they determine them.

From the thousands of incidents they randomly select 157. That's not a very big number and I don't think that if you're going to do this at all that should be randomizing a sample size but rather look at them all. Being random you could end up with every deemed incident from a single club and omit a lot from another.

Lastly a single person (a referee) decided on his own what was wrong and right. Refs aren't always right and even with hindsight they can disagree.

Lastly what this whole thing is really based on is this.

A detailed mathematical forecasting model was built by the team at the University of Bath to predict the outcomes of each game controlled for:

o Time of incident
o Penalty conversion rates
o Red card coefficients

• Other factors taken into account for forecasting were:

o Team strength
o Form
o Home advantage

• Each game was then simulated 100,000 times using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model, with the median score probability taken as the new result for each match.

Click to expand...

Honestly you could probably have gotten a better result by using Football Manager than this model. These things don't take into consideration the mentality of players at all. There can be such a massive difference, a shift in mentality when something changes in a match, be it a red card or a goal. I don't think these metrics can take them sufficiently into account. Does it take into account the difference of conceding/scoring in the 2nd minuted and the 44th minute?

Lastly they say this

The team had 2 months to collect, analyse and forecast data from all 380 Premier League games

Click to expand...

Just watching the games takes up 26 of those 60 days or almost half the time. Take away the time spent sleeping, eating and not working and how much time are you left with? This increases the chances of error even more.

I'm a Liverpool fan, and to be honest, I don't believe this stuff one bit.

While I think there were one or two decisions that went against us, every side can have the same greivances.

The study doesn't account for bias in judgement of all the factors that cause the 'swing' in points. Further, simulation models can be highly tinkered with to give you the results you want to see by moving/removing variables - as far as I understand, which I think I do quite well considering I have a Masters in Math and make a good living from making simulation models

Given my backgrounds, the use of statistics and numerical analysis in football is very interesting to me; however, this accounts for some things that only people who live in computer labs would ignore - emotion, momentum and bias. Also its the University of Bath, while quite decent, its not exactly Oxbridge. (Yes, I'm a nerd, sue me )