5 Tech Stocks to Trade (or Not) - views

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It’s time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It’s a concept that’s known as “crowdsourcing,” and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis.

These “most active” names are the most heavily-traded names on the market – and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors’ attention on shares. That’s especially true now that earnings season is underway. And when there’s a big catalyst, there’s often a trading opportunity.

HP posted a record $8.9 billion loss after writing down goodwill from its overpaid acquisition of Electronic Data Systems, but that was expected. Investors weren’t expecting the sort of slow, drawn out turnaround that managing talked about during the call. Shares of HP are getting sold off today, down more than 6% as I write.

From a technical standpoint, things could be worse. The selloff isn’t pretty, but it’s putting HP’s shares much closer to support at $17.50, a possible entry point for any investors who still actually like this stock.

I’m not one of them. The fundamentals look challenging for HPQ right now, and as a technical trade, I wouldn’t buy unless HPQ could catch a bid above $20.50 resistance.

Nokia (NOK) is staging a reversal of its own. Shares of the beleaguered handset maker have been getting ample attention for the last few months, and Nokia is about to try for a big technical move in August.

NOK shares fell hard between April and late July, but they started to bottom at the end of last month. I pointed to its upside potential in my “5 Huge Stocks Ready to Slingshot Higher” column from July 27. Since then, they’ve certainly slingshotted; NOK is up more than 47% from the day that column ran.

Now shares are testing a significant resistance level at $3, a price that buyers have failed to overcome on the last four attempts. Clearly, there’s a glut of supply of shares that buyers can’t absorb there, so it’s a price that traders should be paying attention to. Wait for a breakout above $3, then consider buying NOK.

Sprint

Nearest Resistance: $5.50

Nearest Support: $4.70

Catalyst: Technical Setup

On the other side of the spectrum is Sprint (S), a heavily traded name that’s looking toppy right now. Sprint has been one of those perennially-popular tickers for the last few months, driven by a sub-$5 share price and a colossal rally that’s kept shareholders engaged since late May. But shareholders might want to disengage now.

Sprint topped at $5.49 earlier this month, slinking lower as buying pressure got sapped by sellers who were increasingly eager to take gains at a new high. Could the uptrend in S continue? Absolutely. A correction is more than appropriate after such a big run higher. But the pullback is bringing shares much closer to a test of support at the same time that the uptrend in RSI broke down.

I’d consider buying Sprint if it can print at $5.50, but this stock becomes a short candidate if it slips below the base it’s built at $4.25.

Computer maker Dell (DELL) is seeing heavy trading today, becoming a sympathy trade after HP’s results proved underwhelming. Stocks of a feather flock together, so it’s no big surprise that the headwinds in the computer industry are pushing Dell town alongside its rival. Computers have become commoditized in recent years, as price matters more than brand (Apple (AAPL) has been the sole exception). That’s left PC makers all competing for lucrative enterprise dollars, a business that wasn’t exactly without competition to begin with.

Dell’s 2.6% drop today isn’t as bad as H-P’s, but it’s infinitely worse. The move sends shares down below the $11.50 level, a price that’s acted as a sort of floor for shares for the last few weeks. That made DELL free to test new 52-week lows in today’s session.

If I owned Dell, I’d be selling.

Advanced Micro Devices

Nearest Resistance: $4

Nearest Support: N/A

Catalyst: H-P Sympathy Trade

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is seeing a similar fate today, shoved lower by the HP earnings release and a big technical break in shares. AMD had been looking promising for the last few weeks, forming the early stages of a tower bottom -- a bullish reversal pattern that shareholders were desperate for.

But the pattern never triggered. Instead, AMD fell through $4 support for the last two straight weeks, making a new 52-week low today.

To be sure, the chip business isn’t in the some straits as the PC-making business. That said, until AMD can catch a bid, I’d recommend staying away from this stock.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, based out of Baltimore, is the editor and portfolio manager of the Rhino Stock Report, a free investment advisory that returned 15% in 2008. He is a contributor to numerous financial outlets, including Forbes and Investopedia, and has been featured in Investor's Business Daily, in Consumer's Digest and on MSNBC.com.