1. Mubarak will not run again for president.2. His son Gamal has been ruled out as successor.3. A VP, Suleiman, has been appointed for the first time.4. Protesters can roam the streets "almost with impunity."

Appointing Suleiman appears to be a shrewd move by Mubarak. It bought him some time. It keeps Israel at bay for the time being.

However, Mubarak does not want to cede power to Suleiman but has pushed the opposition groups into a framework for discussions. Mubarak appears to be dictating the timetable of September.

Who composes the opposition?

Many young people from Egypt, informally organized if they are organized at all, along with organized groups and parties.

OPERATIVES would be mixed in throughout, especially in the organized groups.

By clinging onto power, Mubarak forces the informally organized young people into the arms of more organized and controlled groups for the purpose of negotiating with the state.

The MB took a back seat during the early part of the protests but is now negotiating with the government.

SURPRISE SURPRISE.

Originally the MB ruled out talking to Mubarak, but then the Brotherhood changed it's tune. Some members grumble that the MB leadership caved in to government trickery. Perhaps they do not consider that the MB is run by spooks. They didn't "cave in" by accident or trickery. They need to be part of the new government in order to weave the radical Islamist narrative that will JUSTIFY some further violence against the people of Egypt.

Meanwhile, the talks with the government are getting bogged down in procedural details that could take months to sort through.

^^^^^^^

It appears that some of the protesters have been able to avoid some of the traps laid for them. It is important to note that the protesters seem very reasonable, even though reportedly something like 300 people have been killed. Perhaps peaceful and reasonable protesters was not what the provocateurs had in mind? It makes it a little harder to JUSTIFY cracking down.

Tamim Khalifa, age 20, says that the protesters are for all Egyptians, rich and poor.

"This is not a revolution of the poor or hungry, it’s a revolution for people from all walks of the Egyptian life, both poor and rich. It is great to see that no one here is afraid."

Tamim wants Mubarak to leave and a coalition government to run Egypt until elections in September.

Mosaab El Shami, age 20, also says the demands are for all Egyptians. He expresses patience.

"I don’t expect that all of my hopes or dreams will be achieved. There will be some changes for the better, but it will be a long process filled with a lot of obstacles."

Nadia El Awadi, age 42, mother of four, remarks on the unprecedented unity of Egyptians and the atmosphere of love.

"People from different backgrounds and factions are supporting each other, encouraging each other and acting as one; an unprecedented scene in Egypt. The atmosphere here in the Square is filled with love."

She does not trust the regime, even though it has done some good things.

"This regime might have did some good things in the past, but that does not erase all the bad things we endured over the years. I believe the move towards democracy will take more than I year, but I hope what has happened has put us on the beginning of the road."

Mohammed Abdel-Aziz, age 33, was impressed with the organized and peaceful demonstrations. He would like to see them choose a leader from amongst themselves.

"I was so impressed by how organized and civil this group of youth is and how peaceful their demonstrations were. I hope the youth of the January 25th movement calm down, and be proud of what they have achieved so far. They also have to regroup and choose a leader from among them to start a dialogue with the new government in order to move forward."

Tamer El Demerdash, age 36, describes the atmosphere as "magnificent."

"The atmosphere in Tahrir Square is magnificent."

"I have been at the Square for the past four days. Protestors are maintaining the cleanliness of the place, sharing food and doctors are providing medical assistance to the wounded on the ground. The thugs are still around us, on Thursday they were blocking all the supporters from bringing in any food or medicine into the Square and throwing it in the Nile, but we found alternative routes to keep the supplies coming."

"The president is playing with our emotions… and the Egyptian state TV is filled with lies. They are using the Muslim Brotherhood card to strike fear into us, but I am telling you that even though they are with us (protesters), they are not imposing their ideas on us, and even if they do, we won’t allow them."

"I am hoping that President Mubarak steps down and relinquishes power to Vice President Omar Suleiman. When the regime goes down, we should regroup and figure things out with the help of the Committee of Elders."

Angham Abdel-Nasser, age 19, was not allowed to participate because his family feared for his safety.

"I want everyone in Tahrir Square that the best thing right now is dialogue (with the regime) to achieve our goals with the least possible losses. All I hope now is that President Mubarak lives up to his words and that the next 7 months pass by peacefully."

Mohammed Tarek, age 24, talks about the HUMILIATION that Egyptians have endured.

"I came to Tahrir Square along with the millions of Egyptians who are pouring in from all over to put an end to the humiliation they have endured over the past few decades and to help Egypt regain its stature.I witnessed the terror that the protestors were subjected to from the regime, before they try to play mind games with us to sympathize with this old president. I hope that Mubarak will step down, in fact I truly believe he will step down."

Ahmed Salah, age 34, notes how the protesters were attacked.

"I came to Tahrir Square to see for myself the truth that the regime is trying to taint. I saw the thugs on Wednesday come in on camels and horses and attacking the protestors."

"It started as a beautiful day, and we were trying to convince our fellow protestors that we achieved what we want and the demonstrations should come to an end, until the attacks occurred, which changed everything. I don’t think President Mubarak is stupid to do something like this, but if this says something, it says that he is not the only one calling the shots. That is why we cannot trust any words or promises from this regime."

"I believe that things will calm down unless the government does something stupid."

"I want the protestors to go home and negotiations for a new constitution to commence, followed by early parliamentary and presidential elections."

Some of the protesters see some of the traps. Violent, scary Muslims? We don't think so.

Fourthly, western media are discovering rather late that the Islamic threat is merely a scarecrow. ...In collusion with the United States, the Saudis funded sectarian Muslim groups that preached for a resurgence of Seventh-century society as they dreamed of it during the era of Prophet Muhammad. They have just as much impact in the Arab World as the Amish in the United States, with their horse and buggy....The Middle East populations have no intention of replacing the police and military dictatorships that have crushed them with a religious dictatorship. So, there is no Islamic danger.

...Fifthly, with all due respect to certain observers, even if social issues are again in the forefront, the ongoing movement cannot be reduced to simply a matter of class struggle. ...At the present juncture, the struggle against the Zionist project overrides the question of class interests. Moreover, more than wealth distribution, the protesters are challenging the pseudo-liberal capitalist system imposed by the Zionists.

...Sixtly, reverting to the situation in Egypt, Western media threw themselves at Mohamed ElBaradei, hailing him as the leader of the opposition. That’s laughable! Mr. ElBaradei enjoys a respectable reputation in Europe for having held out against the Bush administration for some time, without ever completely opposing it. He incarnates the good conscience of Europe with respect to Iraq, considering its flip-flop stance over the war. Objectively, however, Mr. ElBaradei is a luke-warm personality who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize only to keep Hans Blix from getting it. Most important, he doesn’t carry any weight inside his own country. His only political existence is limited to his role as spokesperson of the Muslim Brotherhood in front of the Western media.
The United States have come up with opponents who are more representative, such as Ayman Nour, whom they will soon pull out of a hat, despite the fact that his defense of pseudo-liberal economic policies disqualifies him in light of the crisis that is ripping the country.
In any event, there are only two mass organisations with any real popular roots, which have for a long time spoken out against the current policies: on the one hand, the Muslim Brotherhood and, on the other, the Coptic Christian Church (even though H.H. Pope Shenouda III distinguishes between Mubarak’s Zionist policies which he opposes and the Rais figure that he accepts to deal with). This detail escaped the Western media which were too busy persuading public opinion that the Copts were being persecuted at the hands of the Muslims while they were, in fact, being victimised by the Mubarak dictatorship.

At this point, a small digression is in order: Hosni Mubarak has just named Omar Souleyman vice-president. It is a measure aimed at rendering more difficult his eventual physical ousting by the United States. Mubarak became president because he had first been designated vice-president before the United States had president Anwar El Sadat taken out by Ayman al-Zawahiri’s group. Consequently, he has until now always refused to appoint a vice-president for fear of being assassinated in turn. Omar Souleyman being the chief architect of Egypt’s collaboration with Israel, Washington and London are likely to protect Mubarak like the apple of their eye.

What is more, Souleyman can lean on Tsahal against the White House. He has already arranged for the arrival of Israeli material and snipers, ready to kill the ringleaders among the crowd.

...It should be noted that over the last two years, Israeli strategists have been concocting a foul trick. Considering that Egypt is a social time bomb, that revolution is both inevitable and imminent, they planned to facilitate a coup d’Etat in favour of an ambitious and incompetent officer. In their scheme, the latter was supposed to launch an abortive war against Israel. Tel-Aviv would thus have recovered its military prestige and reconquered Mount Sinai with its natural riches. But Washington is resolutely against this scenario, which would be too difficult to control.

Be then as wise as snakes, and as gentle as doves.

We must be highly skeptical while at the same time retaining hope that something different will happen one of these times. Otherwise, why blog? Why bother paying attention and writing it down? We would just sit on the couch and watch teevee if we believed the situation was hopeless.

16 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Another great analysis AP and thanks for posting that video clip up of Sheik Imran Hosein. It plays like it was recorded this week not in 2003!

I too was impressed by the comments of Egyptians participating in these demonstrations. There were numerous eye witness accounts interspersed in the AJ coverage and these people invariably emphasized the peaceful nature of the protesters whose overriding concerns were for exercising restraint and in fostering cooperation and caring amongst and for themselves. All this, while still holding firm to their core demands that the regime must leave and the constitution must be changed to reflect their demands. I would also add that many of them were very savvy in deflecting the leading questions the AJ reporters were asking. It reminded me of the civil rights demonstrations in the 60's with the whites marching hand in hand with the blacks. None of them suggested, even remotely, the stereotypical angry Arab jihadist aligned with a radical Muslim Brotherhood that our media would have us believe. There were lots and lots of really touching stories that I just couldn't manage to record. A notable one I remember was about an Egyptian doctor who had been watching the demonstrations on TV and decided one night he needed to help. He got up the next morning, wrote his will, drove 200 miles to get to the protests and then managed to find a way to get into the Tahrir square so he could treat the injured. Another was on Friday when countless thousands of Muslims accross the country participated together in morning prayers. It was reported that Egyptians of all religions formed huge human shields around them to protect them while they prayed.

"Then again, we don't know if some of these people are the types funded by the many US grants to Egypt. Perhaps that explains why they can make sense and then suddenly want to see power in the hands of Suleiman, for instance. Bad plan. Some protesters may be sincere but confused, others may be completely insincere, and still others, we hope, may be sincere and NOT CONFUSED."

that links over to Penny:http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com/2011/02/us-grants-and-use-of-social-media-to.html

there's definitely operatives working the situation. however, i think in this case they are trying to manage something deeply rooted. it's just my belief that EVEN THOUGH the odds are against the people, that does not mean it's right to cynically write the whole thing off as a doomed affair. one of these times something will go differently. we don't know which time.

I don't know if this would lead anywhere but the name Youssef Nada jumped out at me during the coverage. It was never mentioned again to my knowledge. It may possibly be worth some further investigation. Here is what I wrote:"Large shift in political back story in last 24 hours. There is a split in the government between those that want to hang onto the gov and those who want the transition. They are reporting that back room deals are happening and the demonstrators are being represented. The protesters are saying that they don't know who is supposed to be negotiating for them. The reporter is saying it is secular factions within the MB and that they are bringing in several people who are not currently within the country and that the demonstrators would not know them - Someone named Usaf Nadah?? (best I can do on spelling) who is currently in Switzerland (Italy??). These people were involved in gov or were activists many years ago (1960's ?). Main thing is that whoever is 'negotiating' for the pro democracy demonstrators are people who are not known to them."

I did a bit of quick checking at the time and came up with this:"I think that guys name i mentioned earlier is Yusuf Nada (aka Youssef Nada). He is the one that is supposed to be coming back to Egypt to represent the interests of the pro democracy supporters via the MB. Maybe someone could look further into this guy who is allegedly being brought back to Egypt as a result of these back room deals.

From an article I found on him at link: http://globalmbreport.com/?p=207 . Nada is "the self-acknowledged “foreign minister” for the Brotherhood, is most well known for his role as head of the Al Taqwa Bank. Al Taqwa, which had both a Bahamas-registered bank and a Swiss corporate office, was set up in 1988 on principles of Islamic finance and had a shareholder list comprised of many Muslim Brotherhood figures including the family of global Muslim Brotherhood leader Youssef Qaradawi who also served as the bank’s Sharia advisor. Very little is actually known about the Al Taqwa’s operations but it, along with with Nada and the other directors, was designated in November 2001 as terrorist entities in connection with the financing of Al Qaida. As recent posts have discussed, terrorism charges against Nada and his associates have recently been dropped in Switzerland and Italy for lack of evidence. Nada was recently named by the Egyptian government as a terrorism financier and is being tried in absentia by a military court. He continues to reside in Campione di Italia, an italian enclave inside of Swiss territory where he has lived in a luxurious villa for many years."

From a NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/08/world/a-nation-challenged-the-banker-i..."From a building with copper-colored windows, they run an empire that had a Bahamas bank and shares of business throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with cement plants, drydocks, textile and brick factories and a division that trades steel, wheat, oil and other commodities. The lone sign for the sixth-floor office is a red placard with one word, ''NADA.'' All others ''were taken down because of the reporters,'' said a banker from another floor...."His investment house, Al Taqwa, meaning piety or fear of God, offers 3,000 clients investments in accordance with shariah, or Islamic law. That tenet forbids charging interest or owning anything to do with alcohol, weapons, gambling or adultery."

Looking into young Yusuf now (He's 80yo) Here's his Wiki page-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youssef_NadaReaders should bear in mind that Wiki is edited by israel friendly editors. There is a few ways to read the info though. For instance, his internment in a concentration camp by Nasser where many of his compatriots were tortured and some killed. He was released and thrived later economically. I am reminded of McCain's experience of being a prisoner of war and his subsequent rise in politics.

He could have been 'turned'. This is quite possible considering his rise in the commercial world plus his rise in the Muslim Brotherhood. Especially so because of the CIA influence over the MB."

Well, as I noted it was never mentioned again like so much of the coverage.

It may be interesting in light of the flip flopping stances of the Muslim Brotherhood. Is there infighting amongst them causing conflicting and changing positions? And also considering they don't seem to have been successful in convincing the mass of protesters to accept them as their spokespersons or even to create the allusion that they have. Were they all set up to bring these guys in (including Nada) and then plans had to change in light of events on the ground?

Is it just me or is there a perceived reluctance for anyone to perform the ‘useful idiot’ role and take power? It reminds me a of 5-way knife fight – no one wants to make the first move.

The longer this goes on the more the regime (and their puppet masters) can take the initiative away from the people. Getting bogged down in negotiations about negotiations will just cause the energy and focus of the revolt to coagulate.

I like the knife fight visual as well!Interestingly, apparently yesterday the protests were taking more of an anti-American turn. I didn't really catch too much of it but I wonder where this sudden change in mood came from. Not that they wouldn't have good reason to protest against the US, just a strange timing. Perhaps the result of the perception that the US is interfering or may indicate some kind of infiltration into the protesters to steer their energy?

James has the this first of a three part post up now.

How Israel Plans to Rule the World: Part 1 The Plan - http://www.winterpatriot.com/node/522

Wow, I'd read a lot about how Israel is taking over the West Bank, but after suffering through this, I really get the sense that there is something "not right" about these people. It almost as if the stereotypes were completely true, in the flesh.

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