A Nuclear Test Ban Within Reach

Published: June 7, 1996

For the past 40 years, diplomats have dreamed of negotiating a treaty that would ban all nuclear weapons tests. Such an accord could significantly slow the nuclear arms race, which has diverted hundreds of billions of dollars from civilian needs and heightened the risk of nuclear warfare.

That dream is now closer to realization than ever before. Yesterday China dropped its insistence on making an exception for so-called "peaceful nuclear explosions." That means all five officially recognized nuclear powers -- the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China -- now support a complete test ban.

Other differences remain among the 38 nations negotiating in Geneva. They involve verification procedures, test site inspections and how many countries must ratify the treaty before it goes into effect. But acceptable compromises seem within reach before the June 28 negotiating deadline. The next three weeks will require an intensive push by the Clinton Administration, which deserves credit for pressing for completion of a treaty.

The move toward a test ban is part of a broader global bargaining process that last year produced an indefinite renewal of the treaty limiting the spread of nuclear weapons and technology. In exchange for permanently renouncing their own nuclear ambitions, nations without nuclear weapons wanted the nuclear powers to agree to cut back their weapons research. Accordingly, Washington and the other nuclear powers committed themselves to completing a total nuclear test ban treaty this year. If a text is agreed on in Geneva this month, it will be ready for signing at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

While the five nuclear powers agree on a complete ban, they differ on what kind of intelligence information should trigger a demand for on-site inspection and who should have the power to dispatch inspectors.

China and other third-world countries are uneasy about using satellite intelligence systems they have not yet developed, and want to rely on an international network of more common seismic, sound and radiation detectors. It may be possible to employ both types of intelligence.

The United States also would like inspectors to be dispatched as soon as treaty officials detect a possible violation, while China would prefer requiring that such decisions be approved by two-thirds of the countries monitoring the treaty. A compromise requiring a simple majority vote within 72 hours of an official request seems within reach.

The other remaining disagreement concerns when the treaty will become effective. After the 38-nation negotiating conference completes its work, the treaty will be offered to all nations for signature and ratification. The five nuclear powers, along with scores of other countries, are likely to sign on. But some countries considered capable of making a nuclear weapon may not. India strongly resists agreement, and if India stays out, Pakistan may also refuse to sign. It would be better if the two countries approved the treaty, but if they decline, other nations should proceed without them. The treaty and its verification provisions can be used to detect and publicize any violations by these and other holdout countries.

With China's important concession and other moves toward compromise, there is now a good chance for agreement by June 28. Washington should continue to fight for improved verification and inspection provisions, while preparing for reasonable compromises that may be necessary to secure this long-sought barrier to the nuclear arms race.