Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS
LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME STABLE AIR NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT.
EMILIA HAS TURNED MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
APPEARS THAT IT MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7 KT. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...BEING STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT
THAT THE UKMET TRACKER SHIFTED TO ANOTHER VORTICITY CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 72 HOURS...WHICH CREATED AN UNREALISTIC CONU
CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE STABLE AIR... AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL KEEPS IN THE CHANCE THAT EMILIA
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. IN 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THAT WILL INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 36 HOURS... THEN FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY DURING THE LATER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 19.2N 110.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 19.8N 111.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 114.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 116.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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