March 22 morning, the Fed announced that the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to% to% level。
This is the first time since the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, in line with the market had widely expected。 Affected Fed "interest rate", March 22, in the onshore RMB against the US dollar the official closing price reported, the official closing prices go over the previous day 103 points。
A sector, the three major indices highs by the close on the 22nd, tumbled%, to close at points; Shenzhen Component Index fell percent, to close points; GEM fell percent, to close points。 The Fed chairman said the gradual rate hikes the Fed said most beneficial, improving US economic outlook as the main basis for rate hike。 At this time, the Fed believes interest rates will help moderate economic growth, the job market to maintain steady。
The Fed released data show that US economic growth is expected this year and next to% and% respectively, compared with last December's forecast were raised percent and percentage points。 By the end of 2018, the US unemployment rate will fall to% less than in December last year predicted value per cent; by the end of 2019, the unemployment rate will be further reduced%, well below the long-term a reasonable level%。 The Fed is expected by the end of 2018, the US core inflation rate%, consistent with the December forecast。 By the end of 2019, the core inflation rate%, compared with December estimates by percentage points。
With regard to interest rate expectations, the Fed estimates show average interest rates three times this year and next, by the end of 2020 the federal funds rate expected value% incremental rate hikes should continue to provide support to the economy。 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes, gradually raising interest rates will continue to support the economy, we will continue to try to avoid deviation from the inflation target, today's rate hikes raise interest rates gradually in line with the process of gradually raising interest rates next step to better achieve the Fed's objective, will constitute the economic risk is too slow to raise interest rates。 Powell said the Fed existing monetary policy framework is very effective; his personal opinion, there is no urgency to the Fed's regulatory framework; yet to decide whether to maintain the same framework in the longer term。
CITIC Securities believes that the overall release of Powell's speech signal slightly hawkish, the market is expected to raise interest rates four times during the year to enhance。
Overall, the meeting released by a neutral signal to raise interest rates a bit more hawkish, though US Treasury yields and the dollar index down slightly, but the market interest rate four times during the year is expected to rise from the previous% to%。 The central bank raised the 7-day reverse repo bid rate by the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority 22 announced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from% to 2%。
March 22 morning, People's Bank of China also carried out the appropriate action, up seven days reverse repo open market bid rate to%, up slightly over the previous five basis points%。 The central bank open market operations room official said, the open market operations interest rates up slightly in line with market expectations, the market for the Fed to raise interest rates just a normal reaction。 "The open market operations, interest rates follow the market up slightly reflecting the supply and demand of funds, further narrowing the spread between the two, it is conducive to enhancing the role of conducting open market operations interest rate on the money market interest rates, but also conducive to the formation of a reasonable market players interest rate expectations, financing constraints irrational behavior, the stability of the macro-leverage may play a role。
"Agency believes that after the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the level of China and the US benchmark spread narrowing。 From the point of view of interest rate parity, the presence of Chinese pressure on interest rates, interest rate levels in order to maintain stability and further stabilize international capital flows, exchange rate stability in order to achieve goals。 Jiang Chao Hai Tong Securities macroeconomic analyst believes that China is the world's second largest economy, enjoys an independent monetary policy, without having to follow the United States to adjust monetary policy。
This year the dollar continued to weaken against the dollar as a whole continues to appreciate, from the current level of appreciation to the vicinity of the yuan trend is too strong and not too weak, so no need for the central bank to raise interest rates and exchange rate stability maintenance。 Huatai Securities chief analyst Li Chao believes that China's central bank may raise interest rates again to follow。
He believes that the US interest rate with bond spreads continued to narrow, and has a 3% inflation in February the central bank to raise interest rates close to the threshold, the domestic economic performance than expected, creating space for the benchmark interest rate adjustment。 Guotai Junan that, from an economic momentum and inflation dimension, the need to raise interest rates will gradually increase, the central bank will follow the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates and a slight increase modestly over the open market interest rates, will follow throughout the year to raise interest rates 3-4 times。 – Market Reaction。