Unlike the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.1% to 16,469.99 this week after a 130 point selloff on Thursday, while the S&P 500 fell 0,5% to 1,831.37. Both slid into the red despite closing at record highs on De3c. 31.

The Dow Jones Industrials were held back by Exxon Mobil (XOM), which fell 2% this week to $99.51 as oil dropped the most in 19 months this week, and Procter & Gamble (PG), which finished off 1.9% at $80.45 as investors fled consumer staples. Those losses also overwhelmed the week’s big winner: Disney (DIS), which gained 2.4% to $76.11 after being upgraded at Guggengheim because of the strong performance of Frozen. The S&P 500 got hit by big drops in oil-exploration company Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), which fell 6.2% to $176.05 as investors wait for it to provide an update on the impact of cold weather on production (thanks to a reader of this post for supplying that bit of information), and Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), which finished the week off 5.6% at $25.05.

The S&P 500 has dropped 0.9% during the first two trading days of the year, but JPMorgan’s Thomas Lee says not to worry until after the third day of trading in 2014:

At a minimum, we believe it is best to look at performance over the first 3 trading days—as published last year (see Figure 3), historically, if equities gain over the first three days of the year, stocks rose 71% of the time for the full year. In bull market years, if equities are up after the first three days of trading, they’ve historically gone on to post a full year gain 80% of the time. Conversely, if markets are down after the first 3 trading days (cumulative), equities go on to record a yearly gain only 50% of the time.

[Today] we ponder what could go wrong, or at least different. Top of our list: fixed income volatility, in conjunction with stock market valuations that are, at best, average. Our case study: 1914, where if you read the papers of the day you would have seen much of the same “Yeah, we got this” tone that prevails today. Seven months later, and the New York Stock Exchange had to shut for +4 months due to the start of World War I. No, we aren’t calling for Armageddon. After all, the Dow started 1914 at 57.7 and ended at 54.6, even with the European war. But one thing we know for sure – the time to worry is when no one else seems concerned.

The question now: Does the market have our attention or are we still too blasé about the risks?

Ask me Monday.

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