Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Eight of nine sectors moved loweron Wednesday. XLP, XLU and XLY were the strongest sectors.

On Wednesday all the broad indexes moved lower and the SPX moved lower after four up days. The SPX broke its 161.8% Fib extension at 1,375 today before retreating, after the Euro began to fall, and closing at 1,365.

AAPL rose and AMZN, BIDU, GOOG NFLX, PCLNand QCOM moved lower. AAPL again made a new all-time closing high.

Money Flow

Euro -134 pips1.3322

TNX +0.48 19.77

TLT -0.72 117.43

XLF -0.06 14.76

SPX -6.50 1,365.68

VIX +0.47 18.43

NDX -0.39%

INDU -0.41%

SPX -0.47%

COMPQ -0.67%

RUT -1.56%

Money Flow was atypical on Wednesday as the Euro, bonds TLT, XLF and SPX moved down. Interest rates TNX and VIX moved higher. Generally with the Euro down this many pips interest rates would typically fall and bonds rise. The Jan 18 SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,427 within 12 weeks of the breakout.

The VIX did confirm the SPX move on Wednesday. The trend of the SPXis still up after pulling back 13 points from its intra-day high, which is just 1/3 of the 33 point pullback that completed on Jan 30.

(click image to enlarge)

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.92 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.91to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange NYSE NASDAQ

Advancers 1,029 656

Decliners 1,979 1,911

The Euro sold off on Wednesday forming a bull flag price pattern on its way towards its 1.3534 chart target from its Jan 24 horizontal resistance breakout. This breakout chart target also aligns with old resistance from Dec 1.

Follow your rules in looking for entry opportunities created by today’s pull back.

BMO – ES +1.50 and NQ +3.75 futures are higher 20 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a slightly higher open… volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…

Q4 GDP came out at a revised 3.0%, higher than the 2.8% released at the end of January…the economy continues to strengthened.

XLF is up 2 centson 55,300 shares in pre-market at this time…

FAS isup 55 cents …

TLT is up 32 cents…

the Euro is down 14 pipsovernight trading and is forming a live dark cloud cover pattern …

The SPX, INDU, NDX and COMPQ hit a New High Close and the pre-market action looks like the NDX will continue to lead the recent up trend…During the past 10 weeks the SPX has not had a correction of more than 33 points, a very stable trend during this low volatility period…

The intermediate term trend is still up…

Chart Signals will be watching the Euro, XLF and the VIX...the VIX continues to indicate stable trend…

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

.Six of nine sectors moved higheron Tuesday. XLK, XLY and XLV were the strongest sectors.

On Tuesday the NDX, COMPQ, SPX and INDU each made a New Bull Market High Close. The RUT closed slightly lower.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG NFLX and PCLN rose and QCOM moved lower. Both AAPL and PCLN made new all-time closing highs. PCLN gapped up and closed up 41.22 after reporting better than expected earnings and revenues.

Money Flow

Euro +63 pips 1.3456

TNX +0.07 19.29

TLT -0.39 118.15

XLF +0.04 14.82

SPX +4.591,372.18

VIX -0.2317.96

NDX +1.02%

COMPQ +0.69%

SPX +0.34%

INDU +0.18%

RUT -0.35%

Money Flow was typical on Tuesday as the Euro, TNX, XLF and SPX moved higher. Bonds TLT and VIX moved lower. The Jan 18 SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,427 within 12 weeks of the breakout. The SPX is within 55 points of that price target.

The VIX did confirm the SPX move on Tuesday.

(click image to enlarge)

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 1.05 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led 1.09to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange NYSE NASDAQ

Advancers 1,544 1,207

Decliners 1,466 1,324

The Euro rallied on Tuesday moving towards its 1.3534 chart target from its Jan 24 horizontal resistance breakout. This breakout chart target also aligns with old resistance from Dec 1.

Monday nightwebcastI placed two real-time paper trades for Tuesday. 50 Mar 30 CREE calls if the stock rose above 29.42. The stock did and the order filled at $1.10 per contract just after the open. Mar 30 calls closed at $2.08 for a gain of 98 cents or $4,900 on a $5,500 investment. An 89% gain.

Also 20 Mar 115/125 NFLX call spreads if the stock rose above 110.64. The trade filled about 10 minutes after the open at $2.48 per spread. The spread closed at $3.20 for a gain of 72 cents or $1,440 gain on a $4,960 investment. A 22.9% gain.

These are two excellent examples of the potential of option trades to create meaningful gains on relatively small principal investments, the advantage of option leverage.

BMO – ES +0.75 and NQ +3.50 futures are higher 20 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a slightly higher open… volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…

XLF is up 2 centson 117,600 shares in pre-market at this time…

FAS isup 11 cents …

TLT is up 33 cents…

the Euro is up 48 pipsovernight trading and is forming a live dark cloud cover pattern …

PCLN +41.70, +7.08% is gapping up after better than expected EPS and revenues…

The SPX, NDX and COMPQ hit a New High Close and the pre-market action looks like the SPX will continue its up trend…During the past 10 weeks the SPX has not had a correction of more than 33 points, a very stable trend during this low volatility period…

The intermediate term trend is still up…

Chart Signals will be watching the Euro, XLF and the VIX...the VIX continues to indicate stable trend…

Monday, February 27, 2012

.Six of nine sectors moved higheron Monday. XLF, XLY and XLV were the strongest sectors.

On Monday the SPX, NDX and COMPQ each made a New Bull Market High Close. The INDU and RUT closed slightly lower.

AAPL and PCLN rose as AMZN, BIDU, GOOG, NFLX and QCOM moved lower. PCLN gapped up $38 in after hours trading following positive earnings.

Money Flow

Euro -54 pips1.3393

TNX -0.5519.22

TLT +1.04118.54

XLF +0.11 14.78

SPX +1.851,367.59

VIX +0.88 18.19

SPX +0.14%

NDX +0.10%

COMPQ +0.08%

INDU -0.01%

RUT -0.03%

Money Flow was slightly atypical as the Euro and TNX moved lower. The SPX, XLF and bonds TLT moved higher. The VIX also moved higher. The most recent SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,428 within 12 weeks of the breakout.

The VIX did not confirm the SPX move on Monday.

(click image to enlarge)

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.00 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led 1.19to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange NYSE NASDAQ

Advancers 1,497 1,142

Decliners 1,487 1,368

The Euro pulled back on Monday pausing before its 1.3534 chart target from its Jan 24 horizontal resistance breakout. This breakout chart target also aligns with old resistance from Dec 1.

The SPX bounced and moved higher on Thursday and Friday, pre-market action looks like the SPX will continue its thrust-consolidate pattern of the last 10 weeks with consolidation on Monday…During the past 10 weeks the SPX has not had a correction of more than 33 points, a very stable trend during this low volatility period…

The intermediate term trend is still up…

Chart Signals will be watching the Euro, XLF and the VIX...the VIX continues to indicate stable trend…

Friday, February 24, 2012

.Five of nine sectors moved higheron Friday. XLK, XLV and XLU were the strongest sectors.

On Friday the SPX eclipsed its old bull market high of 1,363.61 made on Apr 26, 2011 and made a New Bull Market High Close at 1365.74. The INDU dipped while the COMPQ and NDX both made a Bull Market New High Close on Friday. The RUT also dipped and is now the remaining broad index still below its Bull Market High Close made Apr 29, 2011 at 865.29.

AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, GOOG and PCLN rose as NFLX and QCOM moved lower.

Money Flow

Euro +79 pips 1.3447

TNX -0.0719.77

TLT +0.76117.50

XLF -0.05 14.67

SPX +2.281,365.74

VIX +0.51 17.31

NDX +0.36%

COMPQ +0.23%

SPX +0.17%

INDU -0.01%

RUT -0.28%

Money Flow was slightly atypical as the Euro moved higher and TNX and XLF moved lower. The SPX and bonds TLT moved higher. The VIX also moved higher. The most recent SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,428 within 12 weeks of the breakout.

The VIX did not confirm the SPX move on Friday.

(click image to enlarge)

Breadth weakened as advancers led decliners 1.19 to 1 on the NYSE and decliners led 1.22to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange NYSE NASDAQ

Advancers 1,632 1,142

Decliners 1,362 1,401

The Euro continued to rise on Friday moving towards its 1.3534 chart target from its Jan 24 horizontal resistance breakout. This breakout chart target also aligns with old resistance from Dec 1.

ANR, CLF, PCXbounced up from support while CRM gapped up and DECK and CROX gapped down.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Dave just finished teaching 240 traders in San Francisco and 90 plus traders in Sacramento how to improve trading using technical analysis and will be flying home early Friday morning. Next post will be Friday after the close.

Eight of nine sectors moved higheron Thursday. XLF, XLP and XLE were the strongest sectors.

Money Flow was mostly typical as the Euro moved higher and XLF and SPX followed. TNX was slightly lower and bonds TLT was near unchanged. The VIX moved lower. The most recent SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,428 within 12 weeks of the breakout.

The VIX made its lowest close since July 8, 2011 did confirm the SPX move on Thursday.

Breadth strengthened as advancers led decliners 2.56 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.47to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange NYSE NASDAQ

Advancers 2,164 1,818

Decliners 843 735

The Euro continued to rise and broke through its early February short-term resistance area and is moving towards its 1.3534 chart target from its Jan 24 horizontal resistance breakout.

Our Bull Flag stockswere mixed again on Tuesday. Thirteen moved higher and seventeen moved lower. CSTR, MOS, STI, C, CERN, GRM, BAC and GMCR moved up more than 1%. UAL, NFLX, RCL, GES, LNKD, VECO, JNPR, F and IL moved down more than 1%.

BMO – ES+0.25and NQ+4.25futures are slightly higher 15 minutes before the open in pre-market trading and point to a slightly higher open… volume is light for pre-market with more stocks quoting up than down…

XLF is up 2 centson 46,400 shares in pre-market at this time…

FAS isup 45 cents…

TLT is down 80 cents…

the Euro is up 53 pipsovernight trading …

NDX leaders AAPL, BIDU, GOOG and PCLN are higher…AMZN and NFLX are lower…

With VIX remaining low the SPX continues to trade with the pattern of one thrust day and several consolidation narrow range days…the SPX had a thrust day on Thursday and its range was 7.17 on Wednesday, pre-market volume appears to suggest another narrow range consolidation type day…

SHLD is set to gap up…

The intermediate term trend is still up…

Chart Signals will be watching the Euro, XLF and the VIX...the VIX continues to indicate stable trend…

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Six of nine sectors moved loweron Wednesday. XLE, XLU and XLV were the strongest sectors.

The SPX and the other broad indexes pulled back modestly on Wednesday. BIDU and PCLN rose as AAPL. AMZN, GOOG, NFLX and QCOM moved lower.

Money Flow

Euro +25 pips 1.3249

TNX -0.4020.05

TLT +1.45116.74

XLF -0.19 14.58

SPX -4.55 1,357.66

VIX +0.0018.19

INDU -0.21%

SPX -0.33%

NDX -0.40%

COMPQ -0.52%

RUT -0.82%

Money Flow was atypical as the Euro moved higher and TNX, XLF and SPX moved lower. Bonds TLT moved higher. The VIX was unchanged. The most recent SPX breakout has an intermediate term chart target of 1,428 within 12 weeks of the breakout.

The VIX was unchanged and did not confirm the SPX on Wednesday.

Breadth weakened as decliners led advancers 1.55 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.03to 1 on the NASDAQ.

Exchange NYSE NASDAQ

Advancers 1,179 834

Decliners 1,828 1,695

The Euro continued to rise from its short-term support area towards it early February short-term resistance area.

Dave Johnson, CMT

David Johnson, CMT
Investment professional for 40 years including analyst, portfolio manager, trader and trading instructor. Performing computer based technical analysis since 1990. Previously quantitative and fundamental analysis. Has trained more than 40,000 traders in over 250 events including two and four day training events.
Email: chartsignals@yahoo.com