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Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker starts playing crazy.McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
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Not sure if the Pacers will win "next season" but for this season, I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

I think the new Bulls team, even with a healthy Derrick Rose, isn't as strong as it was last season. They kept their best bench player, Taj Gibson, but lost the other four from what was arguably the league's strongest second unit. I expect Chicago to make the playoffs again, possibly as high as the 5th seed, but I don't expect them to be contenders this year with all these one-year rental players.

Tom Thibodeau is certainly capable of building cohesion with this group and maxing out its potential. I just don't its potential being all that high. Moreover, I don't think the Bulls team (with a core of Boozer, Rose, Deng, Noah) that beat us in 2011, will ever return to its previous heights.

I'm inclined to think that it was the Bull's starting lineup that made them so formidable. Yes, bench is important, but I don't think that was what brought them over the top. That being said, it could just be me, but I feel like I'd rather have the "In" group rather than the "Out" group. I like Hinrich a lot.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

That's where I place the Ps as well. It's just that this tier of teams are still contenders. They are not the favourites but they are in the mix.

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Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

In regard to our championship hopes, let me say this: There are known knowns. These are things that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't known we don't know. Depending on how the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns play out, we'll be in good shape to compete for an NBA championship.

I'm inclined to think that it was the Bull's starting lineup that made them so formidable. Yes, bench is important, but I don't think that was what brought them over the top. That being said, it could just be me, but I feel like I'd rather have the "In" group rather than the "Out" group. I like Hinrich a lot.

I don't know that Hinrich is a better player at this point in his career than C.J. Watson, but I'll concede the point (both the argument and the floor position). In the games that I've watched Chicago (admittedly very few), Watson didn't blow me away, but he was definitely solid as a backup and capable as a starter. I'm more concerned about the defensive drop-off from Ronnie Brewer to Bellinelli/Robinson and Omer Asik to Nazr/VladRad. Chicago gave up the fewest points per game last season, but was just a middling offensive squad, and this exchange of players will probably help offensively but hurt defensively - to what extent (because they're backups) is debatable. I would posit that Asik/Brewer defensive contributions outweigh any new players' offensive contributions, and it will bring an elite defense down to just a good defense. As the cliche goes, "defense wins championships" -and the Bulls' defense - and title hopes - just got worse in my estimation.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

That's where I place the Ps as well. It's just that this tier of teams are still contenders. They are not the favourites but they are in the mix.

How often does a team win a title from the second tier? I suppose when the Mavs won it. Other than that it doesn't happen hardly ever in the NBA. There are almost always 3 or 4 elite teams and one of those teams wins the title.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

How often does a team win a title from the second tier? I suppose when the Mavs won it. Other than that it doesn't happen hardly ever in the NBA. There are almost always 3 or 4 elite teams and one of those teams wins the title.

Apart from the Mavs the Heat in 2006 was such an example. The Magic in 2009 was a similar case as well even though they just reached the Finals.

I'm not saying that the Pacers are going to win the championship this season. But being in that second tier is an important step. You have to be in the second tier and take the next step in order to be a first tier contender. You don't leapfrog from bottom to the top. It takes time. And we're on the right track.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

In regard to our championship hopes, let me say this: There are known knowns. These are things that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't known we don't know. Depending on how the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns play out, we'll be in good shape to compete for an NBA championship.

I don't know that Hinrich is a better player at this point in his career than C.J. Watson, but I'll concede the point (both the argument and the floor position). In the games that I've watched Chicago (admittedly very few), Watson didn't blow me away, but he was definitely solid as a backup and capable as a starter. I'm more concerned about the defensive drop-off from Ronnie Brewer to Bellinelli/Robinson and Omer Asik to Nazr/VladRad. Chicago gave up the fewest points per game last season, but was just a middling offensive squad, and this exchange of players will probably help offensively but hurt defensively - to what extent (because they're backups) is debatable. I would posit that Asik/Brewer defensive contributions outweigh any new players' offensive contributions, and it will bring an elite defense down to just a good defense. As the cliche goes, "defense wins championships" -and the Bulls' defense - and title hopes - just got worse in my estimation.

Yes it's going to be interesting seeing how they pan out. It seems like they gave up PG offense and SG defense for PG defense and SG offense :P

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

Whose to say we won't be elite this year though? It rests on Paul George finding his next level, don't get me wrong. We need that star, that when the game is on the line can manufacture points one way or another.

But if George can find that part of his game that we saw flashes of last year. And if Hibbert and Hill both continue their progress that they have shown. Whose to say we can't be Elite?

You don't get the 5th best record in the league without there being something. And with so much youth both in coaching, and in our starting line up. You have to expect this team to get better.

The Heat and Thunder(for another year) are definitively better. But with the Rose injury the Bulls are almost certainly going to slip. I am 90% certain KG is mortal which means age is going to catch up to him at some point, why not this year. Lakers look to have surpassed us, but thats a backcourt with lots of issues, and Dwight Howard is as mature as an infant who knows what chaos he could bring.

So at the moment, there are two teams that are Elite, Thunder and Heat. They are both known quantities, we have seen them before. And then there are several teams, the Pacers included, who hope to join the ranks of the elite. All these teams hoping to be Elite, have issues and concerns. And whichever teams best weather those issues and concerns will join that Elite class.

In 03-04, we were 8th ranked going into the season. But we addressed our loss at Center with Foster, who was damn good in that slow pace offensive system. We made Jamaal Tinsley the starter, and that worked quite well for a season or 2. And then JO and Ron both developed their defensive game making it so we didn't need to score alot of points.

That team on paper at the beginning of the year, wasn't elite. But things came together over the course of the year and left us come playoff time, the team to beat.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

Nope. Excellent coach coming in to one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. not surprised at all. (I mean maybe 61 wins was a little higher than most predicted, but I would guess 58 was the consensus
. Here is what some experts from SI thought.

Aldridge: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.Ballard: East: Miami and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.Burns: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.Forrester: East: Detroit and Indiana. West: San Antonio and Houston.Hollinger: East: Indiana over Detroit, because Jamaal Tinsley won't get hurt this time. West: San Antonio over Dallas -- Barry gives the Spurs a new alternative when Tony Parker starts playing crazy.McCallum: I hate to be obvious and unoriginal, but I like Detroit and Indiana in the East and San Antonio and Minnesota in the West.Thomsen: East: Detroit and Miami. West: San Antonio and Minnesota.
__________________________________________________ ________________

Not sure if the Pacers will win "next season" but for this season, I don't see the Pacers in the elite with Heat, Thunder, Lakers. Those three are the class of the NBA - I'd be shocked if the champion isn't one of those three. Pacers would do well to be in the second level teams.

The article you posted is for the 2004-2005 season -- the season after our 61-win team. After coming off 61 wins and a Conference Finals appearance, many "experts" had us back in the final four; not exactly surprising.

From my recollection, the 03-04 61-win season was a surprise. We were a decent 48-win team the season before, sure, but we were also a first-round exit. Just as importantly, we lost Brad Miller -- who was coming off of an All-Star appearance -- in the offseason.

I'm not sure who wrote the article, but they have us as third in the East (behind New Jersey and Detroit), and 10th overall. Solid, sure, but the exact same seeding as the previous season, and not exactly a member of the NBA elite.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

Indiana- too many "ifs" have to happen. "If" Paul George takes his game to the next level. "If" Roy Hibbert can become more aggressive and dominate smaller players. "If" George Hill learns how to be a better distributor. "If" our bench is truly improved.

Miami- one certainty, Lebron James will be in MVP form again

Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

Big Deal, that still would have left them at what 6th best in the league. with most of the wins in the incredibly weak east. I don't remember anybody seriously talking about us being in contention until the season had already started that year.

They had fallen to 34-15 with a 3pt loss to the Lakers in which they played without Ron Artest and Kobe still went 11-31. After this they went on to win their next 3 games coming out of the AS game for a games above .500 high of 37-15.

So with only 30 games left the Pacers had the 2nd best record in the NBA. They had swept the TWolves who ended up with the 4th best record in the NBA and were 29-20 before the AS break. They had split with Dallas, the #1 team in the NBA. They had lost 1 time to both SAS and LAL.

They then went 1-11 in their next 12. Artest had returned from suspension for the first 3 games after the AS break which the team won, but in which Ron shot 3-9, 4-16 and 5-17. He was in the midst of his distracted play, full of horrible shooting and technical fouls. Pre-AS he had shot 45% and 37.8% from 3, Post-AS he went 39.7% and 29% from 3. During this time his FGA/game went from 12.0 to 12.6, minor but a factor of some of his high volume shooting games.

During early 2003 he had the 3 game suspension for the MSG camera smash (Jan 4) and then 4 games for his altercation with Pat Riley (Jan 30). Then he smashed his own photo on a Conseco wall leading to a team suspension of 1 game (Feb 26). He then lost games due to Flagrant Foul points on Mar 9 (1 gm), Mar 13 (1 gm) and Mar 20 (2 gm). The Flagrant that cost him 2 games was just a few seconds into the start of a game vs Boston. The dude had gone completely nuts since JAN and clearly impacted what was obviously otherwise a title contending team.

Everyone viewed the team this way and many felt that some of the issues fell on Isiah's "player friendly" approach.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

And the point of my response on the 02-03 team and expectations was that they had been kicking NBA rear until Ronnie became a major distraction. They had TWO ALL-STARS on the team, one of which was on the verge of being an MVP candidate. They had another guy that was about to be an all-star and were it not for his antics he might have been in 02-03.

That's not this team. This team was a lot more like the 00-01 or 01-02 team. Stuff is getting there but they are still looking for something to click. This could be the 02-03 team maybe where they have a strong run that leads people to believe that next year they really are title contenders.

But the 02-03 team had a MAJOR change going into 03-04, a huge improvement at coach that wasn't really in dispute given Rick's W-L his first 2 years and his rep as an ast. with the 98-00 team. What is the change coming into this year on par with that? What did they do last year that suggests that this big change was just the thing to put them over the top?

You add DWill or Nash at PG then I'm buying, but otherwise this is not the same as coming out of 02-03 where people most certainly thought the team SHOULD be great if only Rick could keep all the pieces working together.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

And the point of my response on the 02-03 team and expectations was that they had been kicking NBA rear until Ronnie became a major distraction. They had TWO ALL-STARS on the team, one of which was on the verge of being an MVP candidate. They had another guy that was about to be an all-star and were it not for his antics he might have been in 02-03.

That's not this team. This team was a lot more like the 00-01 or 01-02 team. Stuff is getting there but they are still looking for something to click. This could be the 02-03 team maybe where they have a strong run that leads people to believe that next year they really are title contenders.

But the 02-03 team had a MAJOR change going into 03-04, a huge improvement at coach that wasn't really in dispute given Rick's W-L his first 2 years and his rep as an ast. with the 98-00 team. What is the change coming into this year on par with that? What did they do last year that suggests that this big change was just the thing to put them over the top?

You add DWill or Nash at PG then I'm buying, but otherwise this is not the same as coming out of 02-03 where people most certainly thought the team SHOULD be great if only Rick could keep all the pieces working together.

No one is saying they are going to be one of the favorites, only that they are good enough to have an outside chance to win it.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

You use the fact that they had 2 all stars as evidence people were expecting them to be good the next year. Even though they lost one of those all stars for Scot Pollard? You don't see the problem with that logic.

The 2003-2004 Pacers. Had to work in a new coach. Had to address question marks at PG. Had to try out a new player at C and their starting SG was what 37. And they still had to keep control of the knucklehead at SF.

So no, I am sorry. Nobody expected them to be the best team in the league that year. They had too many questions to address and it was amazingly fortuitous that they managed to work out all those issues so well. And thats exactly what I am saying. This team has far fewer issues to address to contend than that team did. All this team really has to have is players to improve along their expected learning curve, and nobody have any major setbacks or hit any plateaus.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

Lurking in the pack. Nobody doubts Indiana's talent, not after they blew out of the gate 30-12 last year. Losing Brad Miller will hurt, but several of the young players are in a position to contribute much more than they did a year ago. If Tinsley can put the pieces together, and Artest's head stays screwed on, the Pacers can still rule the East. It's up to Carlisle to put in place the pieces that Thomas couldn't.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

-Roy Hibbert and Paul George have both shown good work ethic and both of them should come back improved
-George Hill has had a whole summer just to work on his point guard skills so he should be a better facilitator and decision maker next year
-Danny Granger struggled to find his role on the team last year but now he should know his role
-David West is now a year removed from his knee surgery so he should be 100%
-Gerald Green should add the scoring punch off the bench that we lacked in the playoffs last year
-Ian Mahinmi gives the Pacers a solid back-up center, something we did not have last year after Jeff Foster retired
-For all of those Darren Collison supporters out there, whether you like it or nor D.J. Augustin is a better fit for this team than what he was, this team needs a distributor and they got one in Augustin

I think the bigger question will be how far the Pacers have moved back in the pack. I have them between 5-8 in the East. Those reserves are no enormous upgrades and the Pacers still have the same starters. Only George has a chance to make a big move forward.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

You use the fact that they had 2 all stars as evidence people were expecting them to be good the next year. Even though they lost one of those all stars for Scot Pollard? You don't see the problem with that logic.

The 2003-2004 Pacers. Had to work in a new coach. Had to address question marks at PG. Had to try out a new player at C and their starting SG was what 37. And they still had to keep control of the knucklehead at SF.

So no, I am sorry. Nobody expected them to be the best team in the league that year. They had too many questions to address and it was amazingly fortuitous that they managed to work out all those issues so well. And thats exactly what I am saying. This team has far fewer issues to address to contend than that team did. All this team really has to have is players to improve along their expected learning curve, and nobody have any major setbacks or hit any plateaus.

It also has far less talent.

And while it is difficult to overcome the issues which that Pacers team had, it is far more difficult to overcome a lack of talent.

Re: Why the Pacers will win the NBA Championship next year

I think the bigger question will be how far the Pacers have moved back in the pack. I have them between 5-8 in the East. Those reserves are no enormous upgrades and the Pacers still have the same starters. Only George has a chance to make a big move forward.

So you really don't think Hibbert will make any major improvements? Even if an offense is in place that can get him the ball more often?

Barring injuries, 5th in the East is very low, and 8th makes no sense at all.

BillS

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...