Gallup: This midterm election has gone where no party has gone before

posted at 8:40 am on November 1, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

In its last survey of likely voters before tomorrow’s only-poll-that-counts, Gallup finds an unprecedented enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans. Depending on turnout assumptions, Republicans either will enter election day with a 10-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot at 52/42, or if the turnout is lighter, a fifteen-point lead, 55/40. In Gallup’s history of asking the question, no party has ever had this kind of a lead heading into the final stretch:

The final USAToday/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided. …

Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.

It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.

Even if the pool goes to registered voters rather than likely voters, the GOP holds a four-point lead in that sample type. It’s an indicator of a big, wide wave, perhaps much more significant than 1994.

And do you know who actually predicted this? Barack Obama. When asked how Democrats could avoid a 1994-style wipeout if Obama kept pressuring Democrats to vote for unpopular bills, he said the difference between 2010 and 1994 was, “You’ve got me.” Gallup says that may be the difference, but not in the way Obama thought:

By 38% to 24%, Tuesday’s voters are more likely to be using their vote for Congress to send a message that they oppose President Obama than to signal that they support him, while 37% say they will not be sending a message with their vote.

Obama has been front and center in these midterm elections, both as a target for disaffected Republican voters and as a campaigner for Democratic candidates. The tendency of today’s likely voters to be sending a message against Obama rather than in support of him is similar to 2006 when more voters were issuing a message against President George W. Bush than for him. By contrast, in 2002 and 1998, voters were either mostly casting their vote as a show of support for the president or were evenly divided in their intentions.

Of course, all this means nothing if Republicans don’t turn out to vote tomorrow. It’s not enough to watch the polls and figure that these elections have been won. Tomorrow, Republicans and independents get to send a message to Washington and change the direction of its economic and fiscal policies, in what could be a historical rebuke and a real mandate to return to a limited government approach at the federal level. Don’t miss your opportunity to be part of history tomorrow.

Comments

Ed,
Once the house is safely done Tuesday or early Wednesday we expect a full fledged release of all the Humpbots. The question is will this be accompanied by the full Wagnerian Flight of The Valkyries or some other equally fine musical selections. Maybe The Mormon Choir with the full pipe organ doing The Hallelujah Chorus.?
Of course if The Senate also goes then the readers will have to select the music.Maybe something from Puccini,Madam Butterfly?

Where is our favorite 2L student to tell us that this election won’t matter because parties in power generally lose seats?

chemman on November 1, 2010 at 9:35 AM

Congratulations on conforming to historical trends you ignorant teabaggers! You don’t even realize that Obama gave you a tax cut and saved you trillions of dollars with Obamacare; you probably can’t even find your way to the polls! /autotrollcommentgenerator

We’re going to test the limits of the HA server! Townhall had better tune that engine up.

Keemo on November 1, 2010 at 9:06 AM

That has been my biggest fear…that the servers won’t be able to handle the HA party! I am also partying with fellow fb friends, so I’m also worrying that facebook servers won’t be able to handle it either! Good thing I’ll be drinking…

canopfor on November 1, 2010 at 9:34 AM
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LOL. That is so ?????, you aren’t supposed to be able to follow a train of logic like that. As a conservative you can only react to fear and loathing.

1. Will There Be A Wave? If the GOP picks off either Kentucky 06 (Chandler) or Indiana 09 (Baron Hill) the polling in the cycle might be close enough to dead on. If that’s the case, the wave might well have begun.

2. Go to bed NOW if the Democrats lose John Yarmuth in the Kentucky 3rd. “Bloodbath” won’t even begin to describe it.

BTW: Even though this prognosis comes from Dailykos site(gasp!!) I agree with their analyst’s “take” on this. (PPP does kos’ polling after they fired their previous “pollster”)PPP might be really flaky (i.e. Demo leaning) in early polls, but they are a legitimate polling outfit and become a whole lot more accurate for the last poll of the cycle – because they want credibility for the future.

Note: In Indiana/Kentucky the polls close at 7:00 Eastern. These 2 states are always among the very first to post enough voting data to start ‘calling’ races

Several quotes from congressman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, made during an interview this morning on Fox News:

“I believe Democrats are going to hold onto the House.”

“The momentum is with the Democrats.”

“A recent ABC/Wahington Post generic poll shows the Democrats with a lead of 4 points.”

“The early vote indicates all these independent voters that pundits said are going to vote two-to-one for Republicans – it’s not happening,”

When asked a hypothetical question by Bill Hemmer, where Hemmer said well let’s just assume the Republicans take the house and marginally lose taking control of the senate, “How will the Democrats deal with the Republicans and the new Tea Party members elected to congress?”

Van Holland replied, “I’m not going to answer that hypothetical because I don’t believe it will happen.”

I’ll be partying in TX and, unfortunately, singing karaoke – unless of course I chicken out and LEAVE!
Song suggestion? I thought about dedicating the chorus of the Black Eyed Pea song that goes “shut up, just shut up, shut up, just shut up, etc” to the President, and that would be my contribution…I really need ideas – never sung before. But I can do a MEAN “Happy Birthday Mr. President” as Marilyn Monroe…

I’m getting ready to hand out fliers at two polling places, and vote like my wife’s life depends on it. Repeal Obamacare!
Then, time to crank up Mark Shreeve’s Legion and wait for the humpbot sightings.

Tomorrow? I’m getting in line tonight with my cooler and portable grill.

forest on November 1, 2010 at 8:50 AM

There is less than 60 registered voters in our township. I’ll wander across the road in the morning and there won’t be anybody in the town hall except the election workers. Voting will take about 5 minutes AFTER I identify myself with my driver’s license (shown to neighbors who have lived a mile or two away for the last twenty years).

All but three of the neighbors who are not retired are now unemployed (those three work for government agencies). Since the only two commercial businesses (other than tourists-related shops, restaurants and bars) in the county have permanently closed their doors this year, under Obama and Granholm, I expect this very blue county to be a reddish-purple by tomorrow night.

I’d like to stress the importance of early voting in future election cycles…
With the number of ‘inadvertent’ mishaps with electronic voting machines, (auto-checkmates for Ried, the college fight song playing after the vote button was pushed, selecting straight Republican ticket resulting in checking all Democrat candidates, et al) the only way to keep the left from cheating (more than they already do) is to be out voting and discovering the nasty surprises BEFORE the general electorate does.

In doing so, some of us might be throwing away our vote to be test subjects, but the effect of letting the system get shaken out on election day instead of a week or two beforehand could be devastating.

I was a poll judge in Denver back in the early nineties, and I got to the discovery of several provisional ballots mystically appearing as I delivered the results to the Election Comission along with the Democrat poll judge.
We counted and recounted all the vote before we left the polling place, but there were somehow a bunch that were ‘misplaced’ in the Dem’s stack of paperwork that came along for the ride.
Naturally, my objection went unheard, because I was young and unconvincing, and the Dem was gray-haired, and well known.

In the age of electronic voting where there is no real record of votes, it’s left up to trusting the computers, which are notorious for “unexplained glitches”…

Of course, all this means nothing if Republicans don’t turn out to vote tomorrow. It’s not enough to watch the polls and figure that these elections have been won. Tomorrow, Republicans and independents get to send a message to Washington and change the direction of its economic and fiscal policies, in what could be a historical rebuke and a real mandate to return to a limited government approach at the federal level. Don’t miss your opportunity to be part of history tomorrow.

Broken glass, Ed, broken glass. Republicans will crawl through broken glass to get to the polls tomorrow.

Ok the Democrat enthusiasm gap isn’t as bad as you think. There are millions of registered Dems (or former registered Dems) like me that can not wait to vote straight republican for a second election. Ever notice no one breaths a word about where or who all those cross over voters are voting for?

Those millions and millionsof mcCain/Palin cross over votes never went back and never will go back and more dems have added to the crossover numbers since :)

Red State, carmine precinct :-) Based on that — toss out all the “low turnout” models. The election workers said there were around twice as many voters this time as there were for the Presidential election.

Ed,
Once the house is safely done Tuesday or early Wednesday we expect a full fledged release of all the Humpbots. The question is will this be accompanied by the full Wagnerian Flight of The Valkyries or some other equally fine musical selections. Maybe The Mormon Choir with the full pipe organ doing The Hallelujah Chorus.?
Of course if The Senate also goes then the readers will have to select the music.Maybe something from Puccini,Madam Butterfly?

I have a liberal friend who’s actually working today at Tom Perrello’s campaign headquarters. I offered to send him a St.Jude’s medal. He replied that he thought that might be a good idea.

Oldnuke on November 1, 2010 at 12:46 PM

That and I’d recommend to him wearing one of those lightning rod hats that were all the rage a couple hundred years ago. Remind him to unwind the ever-important grounding wire on it designed to drag along the sidewalk behind him.

Ed is not in charge of the humpbots — Allahpundit is.
Blake on November 1, 2010 at 11:59 AM

OK,My Bad.
Allahpundit, load em up and let em ROCK.
SO far the selections picked are excellent.Maybe a little light Dirge for our friends on the other side.How about something somber and funeralish for them. Remember we are The Enemy so we must be kind to these folks. We are open for suggestions.