Three Months Later: Bautista’s Extension

Perhaps no player has exploded from relative obscurity into superstardom like Jose Bautista has over the past year. It's been just under three months since the Blue Jays took a bold step by locking up last year's home run champ for five years and $65MM, but it certainly looks like it's going to pay off.

At the time, MLBTR readers agreed decisively that the contract was too great a risk: 72.42% of the 12,535 polled said they wouldn't have offered Bautista a deal of that magnitude.

Yet here we are three months later, and Bautista has hit his 14th, 15th, and 16th home runs of the season in just his 32nd game played. Entering play today, Fangraphs rated Bautista's value at a whopping 3.5 wins above replacement, primarily thanks to his video game-esque line of .358/.517/.798 (and that's prior to belting three more homers today). Over his past 192 games, he's hit .276/.402/.646., good enough for Dave Cameron of Fangraphs to question whether or not Bautista is the American League's best hitter.

Had Bautista reached free agency following this season, as he was projected to, he could have conceivably tried to exceed the seven-year contracts signed by Jayson Werth ($126MM) and Carl Crawford ($142MM) this past offseason. After all, he and agent Bean Stringfellow could point out that Werth only had three strong seasons prior to inking his deal. Bautista also doesn't have Werth's injury history, and offers the versatility of appearing at third base or in the outfield. And, assuming a 50 HR campaign for Bautista this year, they could argue that he hit as many homers from 2010-11 as Crawford had in his whole career when he signed his contract. At the bare minimum, he'd have commanded $20MM or more per season for five years or more.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but to this point, it looks like credit has to be given to Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos and his staff for not only assessing that Bautista's 2010 was real and locking him up at a tremendous discount, but also moving Vernon Wells and his contract in order to free up payroll and make such an extension more feasible. Whether or not he's already the AL's best hitter, owning Bautista at such a discount will be a huge factor in the coming years as Toronto continues its quest to take their first AL East title since 1993.

I was skeptical of Bautista but I’m starting to think he’s just a late bloomer and I hope I’m right! It pisses me off that prior generations of inflated ped stats make me wary of what should be a feel good story!

By WAR, he has already surpassed his salary in value this year. But that’s not what’s most ridiculous. If he continues at this pace (which he almost definitely won’t), he will post around 14.9 WAR. Using the semi-arbitrary $5 million/WAR, he would be worth an absurd $74.5 MILLION in value this year, more than the total worth of the entirety of the contract. Granted, that it unlikely to happen, but it’s awesome to look at nonetheless. won’t), he will post around 14.9 WAR. Using the semi-arbitrary $5 million/WAR, he would be worth an absurd $74.5 MILLION in value this year, more than the total worth of the entirety of the contract. Granted, that it unlikely to happen, but it’s awesome to look at nonetheless.

“By WAR, he has already surpassed his salary in value this year. But that’s not what’s most ridiculous. If he continues at this pace (which he almost definitely won’t), he will post around 14.9 WAR. Using the semi-arbitrary $5 million/WAR, he would be worth an absurd $74.5 MILLION in value this year, more than the total worth of the entirety of the contract. Granted, that it unlikely to happen, but it’s awesome to look at nonetheless. won’t), he will post around 14.9 WAR. Using the semi-arbitrary $5 million/WAR, he would be worth an absurd $74.5 MILLION in value this year, more than the total worth of the entirety of the contract. Granted, that it unlikely to happen, but it’s awesome to look at nonetheless.”

I can’t believe what this guy is doing. I remember when he was nothing more than a utility guy. Nobody even knew his name, and now he is one of the best hitters in the game. I can’t remember seeing anything like this ever before.

I can’t either. But then I was a lone voice in the wilderness when McGuire and Sosa were doing things in the same season no-one had done before and I was a buzz-kill. I shave with Occam’s Razor, and I’m not buying Bautista’s re-birth.

Thing is, with his eyes you have to just straight up intentionally walk him. Right now, I would do just that.

But if you just try to pitch around him he’ll foul off strikes he doesn’t like, ignore the balls altogether, and then wait for you to make a mistake. Somebody could make a nice strike zone diagram to illustrate this I suspect…

well the Rays have looked good since their bad start.
Sox offense is starting to heat up..
and the yanks offense will carry them even if their pitching stops

Is it possible for the Jays to contend for the WC? sure

but it will take a heckava lot more then just drabek and reyes..

Hill, EE and Rivera would have to start hitting, 2 HR’s between all 3 of them at this point is just pathetic, Cecil, Snider need to come back up and contribute and Lawrie would prob have to come up and adjust very quickly to mlb pitching..

Rays have been good since their bad start but I don’t think it will last. Their starting rotation and bullpen is pitching too good, just too good. I still think they will have great starting pitching but there is no way their pen stays that good. Also guys like Shields won’t continue to pitch that. Not to mention guys like Joyce, Kotchman are hitting well over their head.

Yanks offense might carry them but they’ve also got good pitching going on right now which won’t last from guys like Colon, Garcia, Burnett.

I think Red Sox are the most dangerous of the bunch but their pitching is questionable. Beckett bounced back like I thought he would (actually better) but other than him and Lester, it’s iffy. Buchholz could be good too.

You have to think at some point E5, Hill and Rivera’s bat will heat up. It will likely balance out once Bautista sees a little bit of regression (his pace is absolutely insane right now). Keep in mind we haven’t played a lot of home games and we had a tough schedule early on with injuries and we kept losing close games.

I don’t see us winning the division but it’s possible we can get the WC.

A positive sign is his line drive rate which is double than it was last year. Swing has looked better this year so I am hopeful. He’s missed some spring training and the season with the injuries which was at a bad time when he was getting hot.

Looking forward to seeing Cecil back and hopefully get Reyes out of the rotation.

I think he’ll be back up soon. Reyes likely does go to the pen for Cecil and Jansenn sent down but honestly, I want Dotel gone, not Jansenn. Dotel is a terrible pitcher even if he hasn’t been used completely properly. He can’t be used a ROOGY… that’s just weird. I’ll be pissed if they send down Litsch again and keep Reyes in the rotation once Cecil comes up.

I agree on Dotel, all he is, is a roogy at this point, and with that many good righties already in the pen who can handle lefties and righties, he’s essentially just taking up a spot being the least useful guy in there.

I seriously doubt they would send Litsch back down, he’s been pretty decent since coming back up and is far more likely to go deep in to ball games then reyes. Litsch is a perfectly fine 5th starter.

I don’t think anyone ever said this was the worst contract- more that it wasn’t a great deal. I was in that crowd- a year and a few million bucks more than I’d have paid, but all in all, I didn’t mind it THAT much. It was never going to be an albatross on the level of Wells’ deal.

I think judging a 5 year deal after two months is folly, but really, why do we need to quantify it? As a fan, I’m loving every minute of it. In the back of my mind, I do wonder about the back couple of years, but I’m not obsessing over it. Let’s enjoy the moments.

We love to put historical context on things right this very minute, but it’s impossible. We need the time for the perspective.

i think you pretty much nailed it. even if bautista way overperforms for his salary in the first couple years (as he is currently doing), that will be poor consolation for fans and management if they’re paying him for nothing in the back half of the deal. 2 months does not make this deal a win. injury and regression of skill can still get in the way, but at least it is obvious that his talent is no longer in doubt.

If Jose continues to produce and isn’t near the top of overall votes gathered by the time the All Star game rolls around, I will be very cross. He deserves it. As far as I know, he’s doing this cleanly, so I won’t go and point an undeserving finger at him.

The real question to me is not how great this deal now looks for Toronto, but if Bautista and his agent are now kicking themselves for not taking a chance in going to arbitration, getting $8-10MM for this year and then chancing that he’ll be nearly as good in his walk year and then getting a Jayson Werth-sized contract from someone else or even the Jays themselves. He could have easily commanded 6 years/$120MM in the FA market after this season and he’d have an outside shot of 5 years/$150MM from some desperate team.

Well put. The problem with so much conventional wisdom is that the emphasis is on the conventional not the wisdom. And it becomes more and more conventional as each year goes by. Unfortunately for the purveyors of conventional wisdom, specific individual humans are not always conventional, and they sometimes do highly unconventional things. Jose Bautista is a case in point, but he’s by no means the only one.

It’s unfortunate that we have to endure the barrage of nay-saying and PED accusations, always rooted thoroughly in conventional wisdom (which hates being defied), instead of being able to simply enjoy a player having really accomplished something that is rare and amazing, and who has done so with considerable grace, style and humility. This is the sort of thing that we’re supposed to love about sport. Unfortunately, it’s now all and only about winning. And if you’re not winning, you’re a loser.

in other sports a player defying logic and overcome mediocrity and rise to sheer god like status would be celebrated and be a great story.. In baseball its met with skepticism and pessimism. Its sad really, and truly unfair to Jose.

I thought one of the low points of the 2010 season was when a Toronto columnist wrote an article about Bautista with absolutely no proof or reason for any PED allegations. I cant remember who it was but it was truly one of those idiotic articles that makes you hate baseball writers.

100% agree. It’s the same even if a player in another sport is caught using PED’s, especially the NFL. They serve their 4 game suspension then it’s like nothing ever happened. ESPN will even do specials on you about how good of a person you are. You get caught in baseball and you destroyed baseball as we know it. They want to chase you around until you can’t leave your house.

People like Steve Simmons and Damien Cox are the hipsters of sports writers. Im sure every town can relate to a similar local writer. They gain notoriety by waiting for public consensus and argue the exact opposite point with a smug arrogance. Its a joke that these people have jobs. If they wrote with some evidence or actual research, I’d respect their opinion, but alas that will never happen

Not even… 60 years ago, they didn’t have anywhere near the type of training regimen that they do today. Look at the last 30 years if you want a better sample. I think a point of decline would usually start at 34 or so rather than 31 or 32.

I can understand why people are skeptical. It’s unheard of to see someone go from a utility player to a 50 HR hitter but I think those people really have to watch him play because he does not hit towering homeruns, he hits line drives generated from his bat speed and they are basically left field homeruns because his swing is suppose to get ready quicker. Not to mention his great discipline and hit ability to hit mistake pitches. Do drugs somehow give you that ability too?

He still maintains the same body type. He’s passed the drug tests.

At what point do people stop accusing him of these allegations without any proof?

OK, as far as all the discussion relating to PED use I have to comment on some of the ludicrous defenses posted (and I am writing this as someone who is admittedly suspicious, but will still give Bautista the benefit of the doubt.) Saying you watch the way he hits the ball and that his body mass has remained consistent does not negate the entire argument for his PED use.

The elephant remaining in the room since drug testing was strengthened in baseball several years ago is HGH, which remains undetectable through urine analysis. I believe as of right now it can only be detected through a blood test, something the player’s association continues to disapprove of in the overall collective bargaining agreement. HGH promotes incredible muscle recovery and can allow a user to avoid the usual wear on their body after exerting so much force. Regarding Bautista, you often hear of his retooled swing and how it changed everything for him at the plate. His previous career high before last year was 16 HRs with a sub-.800 OPS, although he was never afforded daily playing time over an entire season. It is within reason to think he could have reached 25 HRs and similar rate statistics if given the opportunity in Pittsburgh though. The plate discipline and eye are certainly there as many of you have said, but what is so suspicious to me is the bat speed and force he is able to exert on each and every swing with no significant wear on his body (as of yet). HGH would fit the profile in aiding such an ability, a reasonable HYPOTHESIS, NOT a CONFIRMATION.

Bautista so far has posted an adjusted OPS+ of 284 (or 184% better offensive production than the combined median of all MLB players), miles ahead of what any other player has compiled over an entire season in the history of baseball (yes, even Bonds and McGwire’s 70+ HR campaigns, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams). To put that in perspective, Albert Pujols has never even touched above 190 before. As a player who was about to fade into obscurity earning relatively little money before turning 30, the motive is certainly there and he really had nothing to lose. As the last 15 years have taught us, it is reasonable to be weary of these monster seasons. PEDs certainly have a greater affect on some players then others and all I am saying is that it is foolish to entirely dismiss the notion with Bautista the way some others have. Him signing a bargain extension so quickly based on his production (although much more than any money he had earned before) I feel somewhat even adds to the whole uncertainty of the situation.

The point, before it got all mixed up, is that you haunt Blue Jay related comment boards but generally do not add much to the conversation, i.e. “it was still risky at the time regardless of how it plays out it was a risk.” Also, to throw around the h-phobic word is unnecessary and frankly, a bit callous. Don’t assume sarcasm, because trust me, it wasn’t there. BTW, thank you for certificate, I shall cherish it forever…

In case the moderator doesn’t accept my comment to your post Adrian, I didn’t want this hanging out there. I have no hate (for any race, creed, or kind, save for possibly Lunchbox). Lunchbox alluded to an act “thanks though, but in the future, if I wanted lip from you, I’d rattle my zipper.” I assumed that Lunchbox is male, therefore I made an assumption as to his lifestyle. There should be no assumption in sarcasm (frankly I believe that people of that lifestyle should be allowed all the rights afforded to straight couples)….

seriously, get over yourself, you’ve added zip to the conversation. If you don’t like my posts don’t read them .. pretty simple concept, yet I have a feeling you are going to post yet another very long winded explatation of something no one cares about.