Investment benchmark: resolute self-confidence to wait for daybreak tamp the bottom is the main theme of a share in the third quarter

Dikaigaozou, rose 2 percent, intellectual property stocks broke out, light a technological limit, software active stocks, stocks daily limit 3。For the market outlook, dongfangcaifuwang summarizes the major institutions and famous investment point of view, for reference。 A time share through continuous decline in market valuation has been at historic lows, all the A shares of PB, PE were lower than the level of 2638 points, the investment must uphold the reverse thinking, Buffett said that when others panic, it should be greedy in the current extremely depressed market conditions, we recommend investors more patience, a large selection of industrial space, superior growth, profitability and valuation matching good quality companies, bought on dips, firm hold, waiting for the dawn。 Shenwan Hong source of the 2018 summer strategy will June 21 was held in Beijing。Strategy Shenwan Hong source team to determine, A shares "Black Swan" away, "slow variables" affect the market, A-share market, the main theme of the third quarter of this year is compacted bottom。The current capital market liquidity is not pessimistic, the leading premium dominant structural opportunities。 For the afternoon, the stock index to fall since May 22, less than a month time, the index fell more than 10%, the stock has been away long, not the probability, the short-term moving average, the market continues to fall deep。As part of the early concerns about the uncertainty is gradually digested by the market, pessimism spread in favor of the bottom area of the construction market, but the bottom of the building will be complex and lengthy, it is expected that short-term stock index will remain weak shock, waiting for the market improved emotional side of。Investors are advised to be patient opportunities arise, focus on large cap blue chip varieties。 Judgment on the broader market and market-style: Investors generally believe that excessive short-term uncertainties, deleveraging in the context of the economic situation is complicated, tug of war will continue to determine the market fluctuations, structural differentiation intensified, the influx of funds will continue to controllable risk areas。But valuations have a certain appeal, attention to marginal changes, policy positions may be gradually shifted from cautious positive。Optimistic about the industry or concept: generally optimistic about the long-term investment opportunities in medicine and consumption, there is disagreement on the cycle sector。Lower overall risk appetite, hedging plate is still concern。 Since the broader market adjustment March 12, ahead of the original with the GEM as the representative of small and medium-invasive shares suffered heavy losses, especially when the market fell to around 3000 points, the high rate pledge shares, trust holding, Information Management Planning Unit of empty down "flash collapse" trend, not only hit the market confidence, but also to speed up the a-share arithmetic average share price accelerated decline, falling as low as 14.02 yuan / share, not only hit a year low, also below the level of 2638 points。Press the arithmetic average share price gauge, A shares fell to 2300 points level in real terms, if excluding shares time shares, A shares will be in the lower levels。We believe that, A-share valuation is low, we have a long-term investment value。 From an investment strategy point of view, the current market there are two directions worth layout: The first is to underestimate the value of the Pan-cyclical industries, including banking, steel, real estate, coal and other industries, with a margin of safety; the second is to focus on the big foreign scale buying of various industry leading subject。 A-share valuation of the overall decline: a share of earnings from all 17.21 down to 16.91, book value 1.84 down to 1.81 million in the full A (except finance, petroleum and petrochemical) earnings from 25.40 down to 24.70, from 2 PB.2 down to 48.42。Further ,, in the card 500, small board consolidated, comprehensive earnings ratio GEM 12.68,23.53,32.48 and 52.33, book value 1 respectively.54,2.08,3.01 and 3.62。 The second half, the domestic economy is still in the downward phase of the cycle is short, real growth is expected throughout the year 6.5% -6.6%。Tight credit appropriately wide monetary policy is still the main tone, 1-2 times during the year is expected to drop quasi。Generalized financial income and put in the balance, retains discretionary space。Debt settlement will further touch the core, but the recession-style loose difficult now。 June 20, 2018, the State Council executive meeting to determine the measures to further ease the financing difficulties of small micro-enterprise financing expensive, small and micro enterprise support banks to open up the market, the use of directional drop quasi monetary policy tools to enhance the ability of small and micro credit supply。In this regard, our main point is: ① mention directed the State Department RRR; ② small and micro economic stimulus to ease the down financing; ③ the release of long-term liquidity to ease the financial strain quarter; ⑤ Manniu enjoy the bond market, and high-grade configuration。