Friday, February 11, 2011

Just a quick update to details today. There looks to be an area of moisture that will get drawn up ahead of the trough on Monday, so snow could start falling by Monday night especially on the crest.

The snowfall will pickup in intensity on Tuesday as the jetstream approaches, and then really crank up Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front moves through. Once the cold front moves through the temps are going to crash and the snow ratios will increase. This will make the snow really pile up fast. The trick to predicting snowfall totals is knowing when the snow ratios will increase. There is a big difference in snow piling up at 10:1 vs. 20:1.

For right now I am guestimating 2-3 feet by Thursday morning based on total liquid of 2-3 inches. The wild card next week is what happens with the second wave on Friday into Saturday. The Euro has it digging down the coast and coming in to our South and we only get snow showers into the weekend. The GFS says it comes over us and we could see another foot. If the the GFS is right 5 day snow totals would be in the 3-4 foot range. Either way it will be really cold and unsettled into President's weekend.

Long range models still show another low pressure moving into the Northeast Pacific during ski week. That could mean that we see a similar pattern to next week with a cold front and several waves of moisture rotating through. Stay tuned......BA