Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- January 6, 2013):

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

The bear had already begun his holiday siesta when the accelerated Sunday burn off of Don't Trust The B---- in Apt. 23 and Happy Endings' was announced in late December. While Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23was already certain to be canceled, I figured that another 'Til Death style Sony sitcom miracle might save Happy Endings on ABC. But once the burnoff was announced that hope is all but gone. A Sony sitcom miracle is still possible, but it's a real longshot on ABC. On a cable network? Your guess is as good as mine. Desperate fans should start their futile "Save Our Show" campaigns now!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

I see no difference when a 71 episode show is renewed for a 13-episode run and a 57 episode show is renewed for a 22-episode run. Not to say that just for the syndication they can do a 30-episode production cycle. It’s Sony, it’s ABC and we’ve seen this before. Just because then a 1.4 was considered a low-rating and now a 1.0 is considered a low-rating doesn’t mean that anything is different. Plus Happy Endings has like 5-times bigger international syndication than Community.

Ultima

@RaykovI see no difference when a 71 episode show is renewed for a 13-episode run and a 57 episode show is renewed for a 22-episode run.

NBC was taking a different approach to its sitcoms and was renewing multiple veteran shows for 13 episode seasons. In that situation, Community was a pretty easy sell. See how it does on Fridays, if it works, then bump up the episode order for syndication or think about a fifth season. If not, it’s only 13 episodes and there’s still a decent chance Sony can find a syndication buyer at 84 episodes.

With ABC and Happy Endings, Sony is looking to produce more than a full seasons worth of episodes. That’s a much harder sell, especially because the show is performing significantly worse relative to ABC’s comedies than Community was relative to NBC’s.

I’ll concede that if anyone can get a network to buy into a dirt cheap 30+ episode order in order to hit syndication, it would be Sony; however, I really doubt ABC is going to be the buyer at this point.

WIlllow

Bummer about HE, it is a really funny show and love the cast makeup. TBH I’ve been a fan but its been hard as hell keeping track of when it is on and new, I’m sure thats not the only reason it did so badly, but I get the feeling it was jerked around quite a bit which didn’t help.

jake

It sucks that the B is getting canceled, but I’m seeing the schedule for tonight and there’s MF & The Middle repeats behind HE and Apt23, for me that’s another shot, ABC is testing what does these amazing shows need to improve.

Raykov

You know that the show is only half Sony and the other half is ABC Studios? I mean ABC will take a 30 episode order if necessery (meaning if they don’t sell it to cable).

Ultima

@RaykovYou know that the show is only half Sony and the other half is ABC Studios?

Cougar Town was produced by ABC as well and is no longer on the network. I think that is a much better comparison for Happy Endings than Community, btw.

I mean ABC will take a 30 episode order if necessery (meaning if they don’t sell it to cable).

If ABC/Sony can sell the first 57 episodes into syndication and produce additional episodes for a cable network, then I think the show stays alive.

I don’t think ABC is going to bite the bullet for 31 more episodes and hope they can make it back in syndication with the ratings what they are at this point.

Midseason- Scandal, Celebrity Wife Swap, Malibu Country, How to Live with Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life)

Joe Robby

Next Sunday, an unaired (in North America) season 2 episode of HE will air. ABC ordered 22 eps for Season 3, with this other episode making for a total of 23 HE episodes to air in 2012-2013. In season 1, they aired a new episode mid summer after the season finale. The show had always been treated oddly by ABC. And I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the show has a large online fanbase (streaming, not live or DVR). That said, all signs don’t look good. Makes me sad as it is the only sitcom I watch faithfully every week (on hulu, I don’t own a tv).

Tony JJ

@Nick

a few problems. Scandal is seeing an uptick in ratings and popularity so I doubt they will move it to mid season. Revenge isn’t moving from Sundays at 9pm and if it were they wouldn’t schedule the male skewing SHIELD on Sundays against Football. I think Shark Tank will stay Fridays at 9, it’s doing great and why move it to Tuesdays where they should be trying to launch a new show! (perhaps SHIELD?)

If How to Live with your parents does good enough to warrant a renewal it will probably be in the fall (or late fall like HE, and Apt. 23) otherwise the huge gap in episodes would be stupid.

Malibu Country shouldn’t be held for midseason either because it is produced by ABC (unlike the other comedies except The Neighbors & half of Happy Endings), and it’s a multi-camera which sells good in syndication, so I think ABC will want to keep producing episodes for syndication if the ratings keep warranting a renewal.

I would like to see how Nashville would do behind Dancing with the Stars and The Bachelor although I bet it would probably drop behind The Bachelor (one thing that Castle always had is stable ratings with the lower lead in of Bachelor rather than Dancing.)

Dan

ABC probably thought that Sundays at 10 was the only spot to get rid of the extra eps. Don’t forget HE and A23 started late in the season and aired only 7 episodes by December. Apartment 23 under normal circumstances would have ended with 13 eps but ABC had 6 more from last season and they committed to a full 22 episode Happy Endings season already. Red Widow only has 8 eps so they figure since that wont premiere until March 3, instead of airing the remaining 666 Park Ave eps, we can get rid of HE and A23.

I’m not saying that ABC isn’t burning off the 2 shows because they definitely are but, its better that they do it now than wait until the summer. Get the shows eps out of the way. Its like how from December 2009-January 2010 ABC burned off 11 eps of Scrubs and 11 eps of Better off Ted. Its also like ABC airing Suburgatory and THe Neighbors repeat free from now until April. They are doing it because they need room for new midseason shows.

Dan

As for Community, it aired 3 full seasons, and a 13 ep fourth season, 84 episodes is fine for syndication and it finally has a deal at Comedy Central. Syndication achieved.

Cougar Town had 61 eps over 3 seasons and will have 15 more for a fourth season giving 76 eps. TBS will probably pick it up the option for a 15 episode fifth season giving it 91 episodes and five seasons. Reruns air on TBS and it will probably be picked up on more stations. Syndication achieved.

Happy Endings will have 57 episodes over 3 seasons. A situation similar to Cougar Town. The question is will ABC bite the bullet and order 22 more eps. Probably not because That will only give the show 79 eps, plus Happy Endings is lower rated in this season than Cougar Town was in its third season. Plus ABC doesnt benefit from syndication from HE because Its owned by Sony where Cougar Town is owned by ABC studios. The show would be a perfect fit at TBS and unless Sony pulls a “Til Death” and slashes the license fee for 2 more seasons. HE seems done.

Dinaminjo

I say Malibu County is cancelled and LMS and Neighbours are paired on Fridays.. Typical + wacky family duo..

Plus Castle is moved Sundays 10pm with Monday opening for a new drama..

Raykov

@Ultima – But Cougar Town is not canceled – it’s moved to TBS. You said that “If Sony can’t sell it to cable, ABC won’t pick it again” – and I am trying to explain that ABC would pick it if cable doesn’t because it’s half their production and they WILL bite the bullet if necessery but you conveniecely quote only half my posts!

were123

I’ve known for quite a qhile TBS is Happy Endings only chance with the rating as it is, so I’m hopping it can rise some more (1.4-1.5s) so TBS gets interested in it. If not, it’s probably done for. I love Happy Endings, but Sony needs to pull a miracle here!

SweetD

@Dan

Happy Endings is co-owned by ABC studios, so it does stand to benefit.

ABC has hardly anything non-family, single cams in development for next year, so with that in mind, Happy Endings stands a chance, as long as it improves, while the rest of the Tuesday comedies drop (as shown thus far). All the Sunday airings are doing is airing episodes that otherwise would not have been shown (including an episode from last season), in an effort to expose the show to a new audience, and increase the Tuesday ratings.

Luke

It’s up against two sitcoms that draw similar viewers. New Girl airs on Fox, a clear competitor to the show, and Go On is the lead-out from The Voice, which draws more of the 18-49 demographic. Plus, Fox actually spent time promoting New Girl before it first aired, unlike ABC and Happy Endings.

You can’t expect it to succeed when so many things are working against it. A shame, really, because it’s a funny show.

Nick

@Tony JJ

Scandal is seeing an uptick in ratings and popularity so I doubt they will move it to mid season.

Yes, I doubt ABC will do that. But, as I’ve said before, my fantasy schedules are just that–fantasy. I seriously doubt ABC will follow it. The networks are too ingrained in their ways. No one but the CW has made any real revolutionary moves lately.

they wouldn’t schedule the male skewing SHIELD on Sundays against Football

First of all, who says SHEILD will be male-skewing? There are many female sci-fi geeks. I think the number is 49%.
Secondly, male-skewing shows have succeeded against Sunday Night Football. Case in point: The Walking Dead.
Airing there may hurt it a little, but whatever damage that might do would be countered by the fact that it would be airing behind the highest-rated genre show on broadcast. Maybe they could delay it to October, like they did with OUAT last year? They should premiere Castle in September behind a 3-day (somehow reenergized) DWTS premiere, then air reality filler from 8-10 (Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Fall Wipeout, etc.) until late October.

I think Shark Tank will stay Fridays at 9, it’s doing great and why move it to Tuesdays where they should be trying to launch a new show! (perhaps SHIELD?)

The problem is, Tuesday on ABC is a deathtrap. Even when DWTS Results and LOST timeshared, it was still dead. DWTS: Results is not strong enough to laumch a new show. They need to move shows that can stand on their own, but can use extra exposure if available.

How to Live with your parents […] will probably be in the fall (or late fall like HE, and Apt. 23) otherwise the huge gap in episodes would be stupid.

What huge gap? Not larger than any other show pushed to midseason. HTLWLP is set to end in late May. Certainly not larger than the 11-month gap between Body of Proof episodes.

Malibu Country shouldn’t be held for midseason either because it is produced by ABC

Eh. Malibu Country’s syndication path is already screwed up because it only has 18 episodes.

I would like to see how Nashville would do behind Dancing with the Stars and The Bachelor although I bet it would probably drop behind The Bachelor

That’s not a problem with that slot anymore, now that DWTS and The Bachelor ratings are pretty much equal.

Nick

Stupid block quote.

s0303

i think the neighbors is on the bubble at best…it gets much lower ratings than the other wed comedies and abc knows if they move it to another night, it will drop to apt 23 or happy endings numbers…

Marko

After this season they’ll have made 57 episodes. So one more 22 episode season would put Happy Endings at 79 episodes. I’ve read in some cases networks are able to make lowered syndication deals where about 80 episodes is close enough. So I guess that COULD still get them one more season in a burn-off timeslot, pretty much the way they’ve been treating the show since day one anyway.