Weekend Predictions: Will The Top Five be Identical to Last Week?

September 5th, 2014

It's the weekend after Labor Day Weekend, which is historically the one of the two worst weekends of the year. Only the weekend after Thanksgiving really competes with it. This year there is only one wide release, The Identical, and it technically not opening truly wide. It is practically guaranteed that Guardians of the Galaxy will win the weekend box office race for the fourth time in its run and there likely won't be many changes in the top five. (As Above, So Below will drop out and The November Man will take its place.) This weekend last year, Riddick opened in first place with $19.03 million. No film this week it going to match that figure and the depth this year isn't going to help. Look for a big loss in the year-over-year comparison.

Four the fourth time in six weeks and the third time in a row, Guardians of the Galaxy will earn first place at the box office, and by a comfortable margin. It should earn about $11 million over the weekend giving the film over $295 million after six weeks of release. It will hopefully relinquish first place next weekend (If not, then the box office is in real trouble.) but it will still reach the $300 million mark in the process.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will be well back with just over $6 million for a total of $175 million after a month of release. The film will likely miss the $200 million mark, but it has made more than enough to break even before the home market.

If I Stay should remain in third place with just over $5 million. It will be close to $40 million by the end of business on Sunday and it is on pace to reached $50 million, or at least come very close. Since it close less than $40 million to make and advertise, this is a great run. It will break even early in its home market run, perhaps earlier if it can find an audience internationally.

Let's Be Cops should return to fourth place with just under $5 million. It is on pace to reach $75 million, or come close. Unless it cost a lot more to advertise than the evidence suggests, it will break even on the domestic theatrical numbers alone.

The November Man should be close behind with just over $4 million over the weekend for a total of $18 million after two weeks of release. This is a bad run, but no worse than predicted.

The Identical will go down as one of the worst movies of the year with a Tomatometer Score of just 3% positive. It is also opening in just under 2,000 theaters with a quiet advertising campaign to match. On the positive side, it wouldn't need much to reach second place. A per theater average of just $3,500 would put it ahead of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. On the negative side, there are some who think it will open below the Mendoza Line earning less than As Above, So Below will earn this weekend. Sadly, it appears the lower end it more likely and an opening of $4 million seems like the safest bet.