Pros Pick: St. Pierre vs. Condit

Georges St. Pierre has not tasted defeat in nearly six years. |
Photo: Sherdog.com

It seems as if a decade has passed since
UFC welterweight champion Georges St.
Pierre last stepped into the Octagon.

After reconstructive knee surgery and months of rehabilitation,
“Rush” will make his return to the cage when he defends his crown
against interim champion Carlos Condit
in the UFC
154 main event on Saturday at the Bell Centre in Montreal. Now
31, St. Pierre has not fought since he earned a unanimous decision
over Jake
Shields at UFC 129 in April 2011. Will the 19-month layoff have
adverse effects on the longtime titleholder?

Sherdog.com touched base with a number of professional fighters and
trainers to gauge their opinions on the UFC 154 “St. Pierre vs.
Condit” main event:

Sherdog Fantasy MMA:
UFC 154 Free Fan Pick’EmMartin
Kampmann: I think GSP is going to win by having better
wrestling, and he’ll be able to take him down. Condit’s tricky with
his knees and elbows and he can catch him coming in, but I think
it’s going to be a decision victory for GSP. I’d rather fight GSP
because I fought Condit before. Obviously, I’d fight him again if
he had the title, so we’ll see what happens, but I’d rather fight
GSP because he’s the real champ and I’ve never fought him.

John Hackleman: GSP will win. It’s like they’re
fighting mirror images of each other, but I think GSP’s takedowns
are far superior. Their standup is pretty much nullified. Both of
their jiu-jitsu skills are very good, though I think GSP is a
little bit more technical. I think GSP’s dynamic physical
conditioning and takedowns will be the dominating factor. Carlos is
a little more reckless. I feel George’s wrestling is better and I
feel that will be the difference in the control and direction of
the fight. I think if the fight goes Carlos’ way and he turns it
into a slugfest, he will win. However, I feel George has the skill
to neutralize Carlos’ attacks, bring it into his more technical
world and win via decision.

Justin
Salas: I call Condit [to win] since GSP is coming off
an injury and Condit is riding a winning streak. Rich
Franklin: St. Pierre and Condit is going to be very
difficult to breakdown because St. Pierre has been off for so long
and everything else. Given the circumstances, we don’t know how
he’s going to react with all the time down, and that will be the
focus. If I had any inside knowledge as to how his camp has gone, I
would be able to give a great breakdown. Considering that there are
too many outside circumstances that surround the fight, we don’t
know how well he’ll do. It’s a question that’s better asked if we
all knew how GSP was going to react to his knee because Condit is
such a tough fighter. If he returns and performs at the level that
he’s capable of, I think it’s a good fight for GSP and one that’s
winnable for him. But if he has any sort of hesitation or doubt or
nervousness left in his head because of that injury, then I don’t
think this will be a good fight for him. This is all
injury-dependent, so this is not a very good breakdown.

Tim
Means: If the old “Natural Born Killer” shows up to
fight -- the Carlos Condit FIT NHB built -- he should give GSP a
run for his money.

J.J.
Ambrose: GSP seems to always be ahead of the curve.
The way his camp is set up seems years ahead of everyone else, with
the best mental coaching and physical conditioning the sport has to
offer -- the Ivan Drago [of MMA], if you will. Condit represents
the old-school, iron-jawed, all-heart badass -- a modern-day Rocky
Balboa. Normally, I’d pick GSP, but the time out of the Octagon may
have taken its toll, so I put it to my Facebook friends. The
consensus was that either Nick Diaz would
climb into the Octagon in the second round or GSP would win via
unanimous decision.

Max
Holloway: I think Condit lost to Diaz, but it is what
it is. For this fight, I have to go with GSP because Condit had a
hard time with Rory McDonald. I think GSP and McDonald fight the
same way, but GSP is a little better. I would love to see a finish
by GSP in this fight because I believe he can get it. I think GSP
wins by third-round submission.

Jason
High: I’m going with GSP all the way. Condit won’t be
able to stay off his back and won’t be able to out-jab him. The
only thing that concerns me is GSP and his knee.

Steven
Siler: I see GSP winning this fight by decision.
Condit is a hard guy to finish, and I don’t see Condit being able
to stop the takedowns or being able to submit GSP.

Chris
Clements: I have to go with GSP via five-round
decision. I don’t see it being a very exciting fight, though. As
much as we all would love to see a great battle between the two, I
just see GSP taking Carlos down and controlling him on the ground.
Carlos is the more dangerous striker, technically, and he also has
the height advantage, so I don’t see GSP taking any risks in his
first fight back. I imagine he will use his wrestling and strength
to control Condit. I also see GSP being really fired up and hungry.
I would bet he is coming back better than he was before the injury.
I am out for minimum six months myself right now. This is the third
time I have been off because of an injury, so I know how
frustrating it is to be on the sidelines, and it really makes you
hungry to come back.

Demetrious
Johnson: It’ll be a hard one. I like both fighters. I
never give predictions, so it’s hard to say.

Yves
Edwards: I really want to see GSP win that fight but I
can’t remember the last time the interim champ lost the fight
[between interim and reigning champions], and Condit’s been
fighting the best guys in the world. I like GSP, but I think Condit
might pull it off because of the rust.

File
Photo: Sherdog.com

Condit could threaten the champion
standing or on the ground.

Mitch
Clarke: I think GSP will win this one by decision --
again. The three things Condit has going for him are the fact that
he isn’t afraid to take risks to end the fight, the fact that he is
very mentally strong and the fact that he’s been more active than
Georges. I’d like to see Carlos win in explosive fashion, but,
unfortunately, I see GSP getting anxious, going back into wrestle
mode and trying to slow the fight down for five rounds. Here’s
hoping I’m wrong.

Caros
Fodor: I gotta go with GSP in that one. I really don’t
see Condit beating GSP unless he has the flu. I don’t think there
is anybody at 170 pounds who can deal with his wrestling, so until
he has a super fight with Anderson
Silva, I think he will be on top.

Zach
Makovsky: GSP takes a lot of heat for not finishing
fights, undeservedly in my opinion. Some of his decision wins over
Jon
Fitch, Thiago Alves,
and Josh
Koscheck are among my favorite fights. I think he is the most
complete fighter out there; maybe it’s because he doesn’t
specialize in one area that the finishes don’t come quite as easy.
When he mixes his game up, threatening in all areas at all times, I
don’t think Condit or anyone else can stop him.

Ben
Askren: I have GSP. I just don’t see a scenario in
which Condit wins this fight.

Jeff
Hougland: I think it’s gonna come down to Condit’s
takedown defense. I like Condit’s style better, so I’m rooting for
him. Condit wins by fourth-round TKO, as he catches GSP with a big
knee and finishes with punches.

Mike
Ciesnolevicz: I don’t expect GSP to miss a beat in
this fight. I think he has the advantage in every aspect. Condit’s
only chance is to be in the best shape of his life and make it a
fast-paced fight, attacking nonstop with striking and submissions
and hoping to pull something off. I see this fight just like the
rest of GSP’s fights. He will score takedowns every round and take
the unanimous decision. I do not believe GSP can finish Condit and
will rely heavily on wrestling and control. Hopefully, with this
win, it will set up the fight everyone wants to see with Anderson
Silva.

Jason
Dent: I’m going with GSP in this matchup. GSP is one
of the smartest, most athletic fighters in the game -- ever. He
will have a good game plan and neutralize Condit’s attacks. I
believe he will have some trouble finishing Condit, though, as he
may have some ring rust, plus he is getting over his injury.

Benji
Radach: Wow, this is hard to call. Condit has the
ability to take this one, but I’m going to go with a GSP decision
win.

Dave
Jansen: I see Condit using his momentum to claim this
fight. Carlos has a proven killer instinct. He’s a trigger man. No
doubt that Georges will come back stronger, but while he’s been
rehabbing his knee, Carlos has been refining his extremely powerful
game. Condit wins by TKO in the fourth.

Tom
Watson: I train with both guys, so it’s not really an
option for me to do a prediction on fight. It doesn’t seem right,
so both of them win.

Danillo
Villefort: I believe that it will be a good fight.
They are both very tough athletes. I believe GSP can make Condit
look stupid in the cage if he wants; he has way more tools to play
with than Condit has. Condit is good, but they are on a completely
different level. GSP is a great sportsman, and I’d like to see him
with the belt for a while.

Andy
Ogle: Yes, GSP is coming back from a long layoff, but
the only thing it makes me think to myself is that people must have
short memories. GSP made B.J. Penn quit on
the stool, left Fitch wondering what had happened to him, literally
broke Koscheck’s face and beat every other top contender that has
been thrown at him. His layoff may have been based around getting
his knee back to 100 percent, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has
been learning and creating a more devastating GSP while away.
Condit’s best chances are on the feet. The fight starts standing
and he’s always got a puncher’s chance, but previous standup
fighters such as Alves and Dan Hardy
couldn’t get the job done, which makes me doubt that he will KO the
ever-improving stand up of GSP. Then again, this is MMA. Somewhere,
Matt
Serra is sitting there saying, “Well, I did it.”

Javier
Vazquez: This is a very tough one to call. It totally
depends on GSP and how his knee will hold up and how his confidence
is. I know how difficult an ACL tear could be to come back from.
It’s not just the injury or the pain associated with it; it’s
having the confidence to really go hard and have full confidence in
your knee. Has GSP given his knee enough time to recover? If so, I
don’t see him having a difficult time taking Condit down and
controlling him. Condit does have a very active and effective
guard. His striking is sharp, and his much-improved footwork could
give GSP trouble. He has also been a bit more active since the
injury to GSP. My pick: I just have a guy feeling that Condit is
going to pull off the upset. It will probably be late in the fourth
or fifth round by TKO or more likely by decision.

Nam
Phan: I’m gonna have to say GSP by double-leg
takedowns for five rounds.

Travis
Wiuff: I’m going with GSP in a great fight that goes
five rounds. GSP is just a little bit better at everything and wins
a decision.

Eric
Prindle: GSP wins if he is in good shape. I think GSP
is too good in all areas, but Condit is one tough guy who takes
damage well and will keep coming. If GSP isn’t in top shape, it’s
going to be a long night. GSP wins in the second round.

Kyle
Kingsbury: Condit runs away most of the fight, but
when he engages, GSP gets the takedowns and wins.

Travis
Lutter: I think GSP’s wrestling will be too much for
Condit. GSP has been off for a long time, but I don’t see it being
an issue for him.

Johny
Hendricks: Man, this one is tough. Is GSP’s knee back
to normal? If it is, has Condit’s takedown defense gotten better?
Those are the two biggest questions. I think that GSP will win if
he gets Condit to the ground, which I think he will, so I’m going
with GSP.

John
Gunderson: I’m picking GSP, though Condit is a great
fighter. GSP appears to be the best chain wrestler in the UFC right
now and will use his size advantage once on the mat to control
Condit for five rounds, maybe even getting a submission.

Michael
Chiesa: GSP is arguably the number two pound-for-pound
fighter and is making his return after the layoff. Condit is an
interim champion, earning his belt with a highly opinionated
decision over Nick Diaz. GSP has a lot of added pressure due to the
knee injury and the potential super fight with good ole Andy Silva,
whereas Condit is an underdog chomping at the bit to silence the
critics by defeating GSP. He’s also had almost a year to prepare
for this, and GSP had months of rehab. Condit’s will to win and
being undefeated in championship fights will be the deciding
factor. I’m taking Condit by split decision.

Ramsey
Nijem: I have GSP winning this fight by unanimous
decision. If GSP can take down Josh Koscheck, an amazing wrestler,
I think he will be able to take Condit down. Also, he was able to
avoid the ground game of Jake Shields,
so he will be able to neutralize Condit’s ground game. I’m hoping
for a war, but I think it will be a technical battle.

Pros Picking St. Pierre: 28Pros Picking Condit: 6No Pick: 9

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