Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

George Osborne and Ed Balls are in a duel to the death

In 1815, the Irish statesman Daniel O’Connell fought a duel to the death with political opponent John D’Esterre. Technically they didn’t actually fight, they fired at one another with pistols; but as someone whose never been engaged in a stand-off more dangerous than a conker fight, I’m not going to get snippy.

D’Esterre was mortally wounded in the shoot-out, and died two days later. O’Connell, who had been shouldering a reputation for cowardice after walking away from a previous duel, never looked back. His status enhanced, he went on to become a great campaigner for Catholic emancipation, and a source of inspiration to freedom fighters including Gandhi and Martin Luther King.

O’Connell was, however, deeply affected by D’Esterre’s death, to the extent he reportedly took to wearing a white glove on his gun-hand every Sunday, though some accounts have it he went down the less romantic route of wrapping it in a white handkerchief whenever he entered church. Either way, whether he liked it or not, it was the duel that made the man. Or at least, made the politician.

I wonder if George Osborne and Ed Balls have studied the careers of O’Connell and D’Esterre? If not, they should do. Because they too are locked in a public fight to the death. And soon one is going to be sporting a natty white glove around Westminster, whilst the other’s crumpled corpse is carried permanently from the political scene.

They were at it again yesterday, taking potentially deadly - but ultimately inconclusive – pot shots at one another over the latest Moody's report into Britain’s economic outlook. Balls saw an opportunity to exploit doubts about the strength and pace of the recovery; Osborne a chance to underline the importance of protecting the nation's gold-plated triple-A credit rating. In the end, both shot high.

But let’s set aside the rights and wrongs of their respective cases for a moment, and simply step back and marvel at the spectacle.

I can’t remember a recent time when we have witnessed a confrontation of such political drama and clarity.

We’re told that in modern politics the differences between the major parties and players has been blurred to the extent they are virtually indistinguishable. Not here. Osborne says Britain must cut, indeed slash, our spending and debt. Balls says entirely the opposite: we must spend and invest to drag ourselves towards recovery. Forget Osborne’s flirtation with plan A-plus, or Balls and Ed Miliband’s half-hearted attempt to realign Labour’s own economic stance. The choice being offered to the British people is binary.

Nor is a cosmetic one. The duel between Osborne and Balls is rooted in each man’s political DNA. It is not a tactical battle, but one driven by their core philosophies and beliefs, and those of the parties they represent. Osborne sees the state as an albatross around the neck of the British economy. Balls views it as the engine room for growth. Whoever is proved right will have won the ability to shape the political and economic debate for decades to come.

This is why their stand-off is so compelling. They are fighting for the highest stakes. The moment Osborne is able to demonstrate his economic plan has worked, the outcome of the next election is guaranteed: “We took the tough choices. We had the courage to stay the course when others told us to turn back. And now we are finally seeing the rewards. This is why you can never trust Labour on the economy ever again.”

But if his gamble fails? “We told them again and again and again. We warned them their plan was failing. But they carried on regardless. All that pain, for no gain. This is why you can never trust the Tories on the economy.” The collapse of George Osborne’s strategy would not guarantee Labour a win at the next election. But it would at least put them in with a chance.

And finally there is the human factor. The intensely personal nature of the confrontation. Again, the outcome is binary. There can only be one winner. Whoever walks victorious from the field will be politically invincible. Fêted by their own, feared and respected by their opponents.

The loser will be dead. Stone cold dead. Their broken body carted off, and dumped in an unmarked grave. Only close family will attend their wake. Gordon Brown or John Major will read the eulogy.

Ever since the election the two men have been circling each other warily. Osborne relying on the cool accuracy of his fiscal conservatism; Balls the brutal firepower of Keynesian interventionism. But the day of decision is now approaching. The next set of growth figures will tell us whether Britain has slipped back into recession, or avoided the nightmare of the double dip. All the economists are agreed this is the crunch year for the UK economy.

Soon the duel between George Osborne and Ed Balls will be settled. It will be a cruel but glorious reckoning.