Conversion Rates

January 1, 2014 ★

Great piece of analytics, part 1 and part 2, by Paul Riley of differentgame:

Having seen that Manchester United are kings of over-performance, it’s perhaps unsurprising that 4 of the 5 players on or above that second curve have played for the Old Trafford outfit. Chicharito’s numbers are almost stratospheric. Much of this may be explained due to his use as a substitute. He’ll either be coming on when United are cruising or indeed, desperately in need of rescue. Our small amount of work on game state tells us conversion rates in general go up in these circumstances.

Some or not surprising at all, e.g. the excellence of Van Persie or the awfulness of Carlton Cole, but the downfall of Torres is. I knew he has been worse at Chelsea, but the low conversion rate still surprised me.