Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

-Once Upon A Time In Wonderland premiered to a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday at 8pm, 23% below the premiere of also canceled Last Resort last season, tapping it as certain to be canceled. The Cancellation Bear will dine on Alice and friends by the end of the season, maybe sooner.

Back In The Game was moved down to "toss up". Trophy Wife and The Neighbors are now both certain to be canceled. These changes will likely make their way to the post headlines over the next few weeks.

Is the bear feeling nervous about his pre-season call that the ABC syndication gods will demand that Revenge be renewed for a fourth season? Just a bit. Will the syndication gods have the mojo to save the show if its ratings keep sinking? Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Wasn’t Once Upon A Time in Wonderland supposed to be a one season affair to begin with? I mean, it doesn’t really matter than, does it? Also, everything ABC puts in that thursday timeslot it going to die. They should have peace with that fact.

queeneeuq

So sad for The Neighbors

Russ

While I understand that you have to make a prediction, I think it’s too early to call on Wonderland. It will depend if the audience holds up. Given how a lot of shows on ABC are performing right now, I could see them giving it a pass, given its timeslot, if it could maintain a 1.5+ average for the season. That, of course, is a big if.

I mean, compare the ratings of Revenge last night, they’re worse than Wonderland.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Wasn’t Once Upon A Time in Wonderland supposed to be a one season affair to begin with? I mean, it doesn’t really matter than, does it? Also, everything ABC puts in that thursday timeslot it going to die. They should have peace with that fact.”

No, if it had good ratings it would have been back next season.

Interesting to see just how long it lasts in that timeslot.

Dave

My theory is that ABC will take the unusual step of cancelling OUaT after season 3, and then bundle those 3 seasons with OUaTiW for syndication. (That would be 79 episodes plus a couple of recap specials.)

Jared

Wonderland was a solid pilot but it definitely lacked the cast chemistry that the original OUAT has. I’ll continue to watch but it’s not must see TV see for me.

BenA

@Dave,

No way OUAT will be cancelled!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It was the third highest rated drama after Scandal and Grey’s Anatomy. If anything, Nashville has a better chance of being cancelled than OUAT. Its recent ratings are down more than 25% from last season and nearly hit a series low!

KJ

@Dave: dumb theory.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“My theory is that ABC will take the unusual step of cancelling OUaT after season 3,”

That’s complete fantasy. It’s well above ABC’s ratings average and in its third season.

BenA

Sorry fourth highest rated drama because SHIELD is doing solid.

Mike

It’s MORE than expected that Once will return next season for its fourth – Once: Wonderland will air its episodes and we’ll see then.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“While I understand that you have to make a prediction, I think it’s too early to call on Wonderland.”

Did you think the call on Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue was too early last season? They both did relatively better than OUATIW.

queeneeuq

Too early to decide for The Goldbergs, Super Fun Night, and The Neighbors. Once Trophy Wife gets cancelled there would be one hole in the schedule. Back in the Game won’t probably get the back order to make way for Suburgatory and Mixology is premiering after Modern Famly so The Goldbergs and Super Fun Night are marooned in Tuesday. The Neighbors could survive by a hair yet again.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“Too early to decide for The Goldbergs, Super Fun Night, and The Neighbors.”

The Neighbors is now below a 1.0. ABC’s not renewing a second season sitcom that’s below a 1.

THE OLD MAN

Agree with post & think it will be most interesting if the syndication gods are unable to save Revenge.

I can hear Shonda’s Whinettes already.

zerg

Revenge will be renewed for a final season like they did with Ugly Betty

SJ

I don’t think the bear needs to be nervous about his Revenge prediction. Yes, its ratings are low, but, as a veteran show, there is a limit to how far it will fall. It would be difficult to imagine Revenge – or any veteran show, for that matter – dropping to Lucky 7/Betrayal levels. Not to mention that with SHIELD’s ratings plummeting week after week, Revenge could very well be ABC’s fourth or fifth highest rated drama of the season (relative to where Castle ends up).

Also, I think we need to be cutting Revenge some slack. I mean, no other time slot of primetime has that stiff of a competition.

Elsewhere, Nashville is done. Falling to a 1.6 at the beginning of the second season usually spells doom. Wonderland will, thanks to its pedigree, get to air out its episode order but it won’t be back next year.

The comedy situation is murky. It looks like the blandest and the unfunniest new sitcoms of the season – Back in the Game and Super Fun Night, respectively – are in a slightly better shape than the far superior Goldbergs and Trophy Wife. But it’s hard to imagine any of the four making it to season two. The Neighbors is obviously done and I won’t comment on Last Man Standing until I know its episode order for the season.

Nerdbot

Oh, my Revenge! ABC should have gone completely back to basics with this show and put it back to its former timeslot. It’s doing worse and worse every week. I know it doesn’t really share the audience with Breaking Bad or The Walking Dead, but, it’s getting really awful ratings, anyway.

I have a question… could it be renewed AND moved to another network? I don’t know if it’s possible or a smart move at all, but I’m curious about the possible scenarios for season 4. I mean, syndication gods demand a fourth season, but maybe ABC won’t be interested in airing it if the ratings are below their average.

Bran

i think trophy wife has a chance it has stabilized and has a chance at growth (no i do not watch the show)

BenA

@queeneeuq

The Neighbors WILL NOT be back for Season 2!!! It is the lowest scripted show this year even for a Friday night!