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Friday, December 18, 2015

In Search of the Mathematically Best Hall of Fame Ballot

I'm not a voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame; not even close. But if you are, I'm writing this for you. I'm not here to tell you whom to vote for or how to judge players you've covered and worked with for decades. But, coming from the world of politics and elections, there is one thing that we psephologists can tell you: how vitally important it is to cast your ballot strategically.

The bane of many Hall of Fame voters is the 10-candidate voting limit. Many voters believe this year's ballot is absolutely stacked with deserving candidates—possibly up to 15 or 20. Yet they're forced to choose which worthy players to vote for and which to drop off the ballot—actively punishing their chances of election. This, in a word, sucks, and it's led to several efforts at reform, yet the 10-vote limit remains in place.

Hall of Fame voters: there are many logical pathways to deciding who to cut from your list. Many of you simply vote for the 10 worthiest players in your eyes. Please don't do this. Instead, vote in such a way that maximizes the value of your ballot. Vote for the players who really and truly need your vote. In other words, vote strategically.

There's a lot of resistance to casting a strategic ballot; it seems perverse to vote for a guy you think is on the bubble ahead of someone you think should be a slam dunk. I agree, it's shameful—but so is the voting process as it is. Capping the number of qualified candidates instead of asking, say, a simple yes/no for each player is a balloting system that's here to stay, and it's your job, as a voter, to navigate it. Here, today, in this election, where the rules are already set, you have two choices: you can vote strategically and make a real difference to a player whose enshrinement you believe in (either by pushing him over the top or, more likely, preventing him from falling off the ballot)—or you can selfishly vote in a way that makes you feel morally secure but have it not matter because your votes don't change the outcome one iota.

Strategic voting feels dirty, but it's actually a crucial part of a functioning democracy. Many of us vote strategically all the time in political elections. Are you a Republican who really prefers Lindsey Graham but also wants to keep Donald Trump from being the nominee? Chances are you'll vote for someone like Marco Rubio this spring because he has a better shot at topping Trump. Are you an environmental activist living in Florida who really loves the Green Party? You're probably better served voting for the Democrat in order to prevent your least favorite candidate, the Republican, from winning. (Green Party voters in Florida would have been smart to remember this fact in 2000!) Far from corrupting the process, strategic voting allows the candidates who truly appeal to the broadest cross-section of the electorate to prevail. (Besides, in the case of the Hall of Fame—and, perhaps, political elections—the process was already corrupted by the powers that be long before you arrived on the scene to fill out your ballot.)

Thanks to pre-election polling by Ryan Thibodaux, we know who is near the magic thresholds of 75% (election) and 5% (elimination) and thus have information on which to base a strategic vote for the Hall of Fame. Accordingly, here is your step-by-step guide to choosing the 10 players who will make your vote the most meaningful.

Write down all the players you believe are worthy of the Hall of Fame. Don't limit yourself to 10; list them all. Got it? Good.

Cross out the following names, if they appear on your list:Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith, Edgar Martínez, Alan Trammell, Mike Mussina, and Mark McGwire. Griffey is going to be elected, full stop. It's safe to leave him off your ballot. (If you are worried about what would happen if everyone else did the same thing, don't be. You know as well as I do that only a handful of voters, if that, will vote strategically in this way. Everyone else is too hesitant. Besides, Thibodaux's polling shows that he is hardly in any danger.) Trammell and McGwire are on their last year on the ballot; they will drop off after this year no matter what, and neither is anywhere close to election. Their votes are better used elsewhere too. Finally, Bonds, Clemens, and the rest are stuck in Hall of Fame purgatory between 25% and 50% of the vote. They are in no danger of falling below 5%, and they are incapable of reaching 75%. It doesn't matter whether Bonds gets 37% of the vote or 38%. Don't waste a vote on him.

Fill out your ballot with the remaining names on your list. This will include Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and/or Trevor Hoffman, the four candidates who are hovering around 75% in polls. They have a realistic chance at election this year and therefore need your votes the most. It may also include underappreciated candidates like Larry Walker, Billy Wagner, Jim Edmonds, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Fred McGriff, Jeff Kent, or Nomar Garciaparra. While there is a case to be made for all of these candidates—indeed, chances are decent that you support at least one of them for election—they are all at risk of totaling less than 5% of the vote. With this year's projected turnout of 450, all it takes is 23 votes to keep each of these candidates alive. This is the place where your vote can make the most difference, and yet, because these guys are the less obvious Hall of Famers, it's also the place where most voters start their cutting when they decide to vote for only the 10 players with the best stats.

Fill in the remaining slots on your ballot (up to 10 total) with the crossed-out names of your choosing. Chances are very good that, after Step 3, your ballot has less than 10 names on it. Yet it is important to fill your ballot up to the maximum—if only to show the Hall of Fame that the 10-vote limit is still restrictive and that they must address this backlog of qualified candidates. You can choose any of the names you crossed off, for any reason—as we've established, votes for these candidates don't matter other than for symbolic reasons. You can decide to vote for the best-qualified remaining candidates, you can decide to make a statement (say, for or against steroids users), or whatever you prefer.

So how about an example? Here's how I would vote if I had a ballot.

I take an inclusive interpretation of the Hall of Fame. As far as I'm concerned, anyone whose stats come close to measuring up to other Hall of Famers is welcome to join. Therefore, on this year's ballot, there are no fewer than 18 candidates I'd support for enshrinement. For my Step 1, here they are, in order from easiest call to most borderline:

Barry Bonds

Roger Clemens

Ken Griffey

Jeff Bagwell

Mike Piazza

Curt Schilling

Mike Mussina

Tim Raines

Alan Trammell

Mark McGwire

Larry Walker

Edgar Martinez

Billy Wagner

Trevor Hoffman

Lee Smith

Jim Edmonds

Sammy Sosa

Gary Sheffield

(Extremely honorable mentions go to Fred McGriff and Jeff Kent, who I supported last year and who are right on the cusp for me; Nomar Garciaparra, whose insane peak makes the 11-year-old inside me so desperately want to vote for him; and Jason Kendall, who is no one's idea of a Hall of Famer but accrued enough quality at-bats at the game's toughest position to put himself in the conversation.)

These names are whom I voted for in the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America's (IBWAA) simulated Hall of Fame election (the IBWAA has a ballot limit of 15, and it has already "elected" Bagwell, Piazza, and Raines in years past, so the numbers work out perfectly). But in a real Hall of Fame election, I'd have to make several cuts. Let's follow Step 2 and eliminate those nine names. I'm left with a ballot of nine:

Jeff Bagwell

Mike Piazza

Tim Raines

Larry Walker

Billy Wagner

Trevor Hoffman

Jim Edmonds

Sammy Sosa

Gary Sheffield

However, per Step 4, I need to add one more name. Let's make it Alan Trammell and give him a good sendoff from the ballot. Hopefully the Veterans Committee will take note and elect him someday. Therefore, if I were a Hall of Fame voter, here is the mathematically best ballot I could submit:

Jeff Bagwell

Jim Edmonds

Trevor Hoffman

Mike Piazza

Tim Raines

Gary Sheffield

Sammy Sosa

Billy Wagner

Larry Walker

Alan Trammell

That doesn't have to be your ballot. It probably won't be. But here's hoping you come to your ballot via the same sound logic. Good luck, and happy voting.