The Edmonton Oilers need to make big changes in the summer, and with a weak free agent crop most of those changes are going to have to come via trade. Given that, it seems highly likely that the team will raid one of the few positions of strength available to it: a strong group of blue line prospects.

The List

The Oilers currently have an impressive list of talented but young and/or inexperienced defencemen in the organization. The chart above shows my thoughts on the system; I’ve seen lots of most of the guys on this list but I am significantly less familiar with the Nurse, Simpson, Gustafsson, Betker and Laleggia.

I’ve ranked the players in order of the value I’d place on them, with value being a combination of a player’s potential, his likelihood of attaining it and how quickly he can contribute in the NHL. There is a fudge factor in the NHL projections – to pick a guy like Nurse, he’s bound to get a cameo next season and may or may not stick; I’ve opted for the earlier date but he may not be NHL-ready until later.

It’s a group that splits nicely into three chunks:

The Top Prospects: The Oilers have six players in this group, and five of them predominately play on the left side (though Simpson told Copper & Blue that he prefers to play on the right). This is an exceptional group and makes up the heart of the Oilers’ prospect pipeline; five guys qualify for my Edmonton prospect list and they all slot into the top-seven.

Depth Guys Now: Fedun, Belov and Larsen are all capable of filling a spot on an NHL roster today, but all suffer from somewhat limited ceilings. Fedun’s the best player of the bunch in my books because he’s incredibly smart and does everything well (though his size may keep him off the Oilers), Belov’s foot speed hampers him but I do wonder if there’s a player there and Larsen’s the kind of guy available on the waiver wire every year.

The Rest: An assortment of players who are either some distance from the NHL or who need to play a specific role or who qualify under both categories.

What To Do, What To Do?

There are a lot of blue-chip players here, and Edmonton might add another one at the draft this year. If the Oilers could have the versions of these players from four years down the road, they would be a much, much better team. Unfortunately for Edmonton, they don’t, and the team only has room to develop a finite number of defencemen at a time.

The team is likely locked-in with Nurse and Schultz in its top-four long-term. There’s no way to fit Marincin, Klefbom, Gernat and Simpson on the blue line, even assuming that they all turn out, and that means one or more of those guys is likely to end up as trade bait for the team. Marincin seems to have passed Klefbom this year and brings more offence to the mix, so Klefbom may be vulnerable (particularly since he’s likely to have significant cachet in trade). Gernat and Simpson are both further away from NHL duty, though, and Simpson is unsigned so those guys might be trade bait, too. The Oilers need high-end help in the worst way, and at least one of these guys is likely to be sacrificed in a package that makes that happen.

Of the middle-tier guys, Larsen seems to be in good with the coaches but is a chaos defender who isn’t a good fit for team need; it’s hard to imagine Edmonton qualifies him though they may bring him back on a two-way deal. The team hasn’t really given Fedun an honest shot; he could be a great number six/seven next year and should be given an opportunity post-Olympics. He’s been fantastic in the AHL. As for Belov, he might be a fit in the six/seven slot next year, or he might be trade bait at the deadline. He’s had some struggles but there’s also a Hejda vibe to him given history and usage, and he’s the only one of these three that brings real size to the mix.

The other guys are all ‘wait-and-see’ types or sweeteners on a multi-player deal. Gustafsson in particular has some nice points and could surprise when he comes over to North America while Musil has pedigree and might be the tough third-pairing guy teams like. Hunt has a wicked shot and is one of those ‘glue guys’ people spend so much time talking about. Betker’s miles away from NHL duty and Laleggia looks like he’ll make it as a power play specialist or not at all.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

it's tough for people to hear but a little more patience is needed. The Oilers are starting to reap the benefits of good drafting & I for one would be disappointed if they traded this fine young talent away for immediate help! Build it to last & let these young d-men develop properly, in the mean time try to fill some holes with players like Fraser who I think will be very helpful to the Oilers once he gets his legs under him!

BIG JOHN SCOTT!!! Imagine him in an Oiler uniform! Imagine Westgarth, McGrattan, Sestito, Kassian, et al CRAPPING THEIR PANTS EVERY TIME they had to play the Oilers!IMAGINE!!!!!!!! BIG JOHN SCOTT!!!!!!!

I'm still hoping that the Oilers make a trade for PK Subban.......perfect fit for our up and coming young d-men. He is young enough to fit in and has enough experience to be a top two d-man for the Oilers.

Send Yaks, ( either Marincin or Klefbom) and throw in third round draft choice........make it happen Mac T and you will be happy for many years!!

The problem is in order to make the type of trade that brings in a quality player the top prospects will have to a part of it. The Oilers will not improve drastically until they get that minute eating top level D-man. They could attempt to develop one(Nurse for instance) but your looking at least 4 years at by that time Hall, Eberle, RNH are at the end of there deals and will want out of here. And your back at square one.

For me, Hall & RNH are the only players you don't trade. Every other player is available.

The GOOD news is that these players are being developed AWAY from the Oilers coaching staff - therefore they are LEARNING to be 2 way players, unlike the players on the Oilers now, who were thrown in at the deep end, coached by second rate assistant coaches and now everyone is scratching their heads and asking why this happened. Duby and his bad habits - as per Nashville HC, is a prime example of how assistant/specialty coaches in Edmonton are not top class and are letting the team and fans down enormously.

Good grief that is ridiculous logic.

The bad habits Dubnyk picked up in Edm probably weren't from the coaching staff.

More likely they were picked up from playing behind and reacting to the worst blueline in the league.

JW, usually I agree with you but on this one I have to say that you have horribly over-valued some of the prospects.

Justin Shultz is a #3 at best. Look at the way that St.Louis uses Shattenkirk; they are similar players. Shattenkirk plays with Barett Jackman on St.Louis' second pairing. Shattenkirk is the points/puck mover, Jackman is the muscle (but also quite adept at moving the puck).

Justin Shultz will always need that type of partner; in fact, the lack of a Barett Jackman type is a major problem for the Oil.

Nurse IMO is our best shot at a true top pairing D man; he can skate, hit and is mean. But if he doesn't turn out that well, he could be a 2nd pairing guy like Jackman.

The rest of our prospects are not tough or mean, both of which preclude them from being GREAT bottom pairing guys, therefore we will have more of the same "puck mover" d men...which just means that they do what all other defencemen are supposed to do, but are soft.

I had the same opinion from watching him in the AJHL in Spruce Grove, but apparently his footspeed is much better. The kid is a Hobey Baker finalist at 20 years old. I think he may be the real deal.

Again a reason you don't want to write kids - especially D-men - off too early.

What I understand as of last summer his skating hasn't improved and was considered a long shot. Do the Oilers need another non-physical D with a poor shot from the point? I would consider Davidson, and Musil better prospects.

Who is to say which (or any) of the Simpson, Gernat, Klefbom, Nurse, Gustafsson, Musil - hell even Marincin - group are going to be viable to very good NHL d-men?

Nurse is 18, has pedigree and physical tools. I think you have to keep him. That is easy. But no one can definitively say how good (or average) any of the other guys are going to be when they are 25.

No one wants to trade away the next Ryan McDonaugh. I totally understand what you are saying - especially if they draft Ekblad, but I would want to be very careful about packaging young defensemen. Nothing can bite you in the a$$ more.

It very well may happen, even should happen, but this organization does not instill confidence that they can identify talent in young D-men. For the love of "Gord", hire someone from Nashville.

Draft Ekblad? Why with all that is coming up through the system would they draft Ekblad. It is time to draft for need instead of BPA. Dal Cole or Draissait are the only two that I see as viable options. A big C with sick skill and a big C/LW with grit and sick skill.
Just sayin...

Nurse gets a nine-game cameo and gets returned to junior. Klefbom starts the year in the AHL but comes up once Nurse is shipped back to the OHL.

Hunt stays on the farm, and one of Belov or Fedun is kept as the No. 7. Larsen either signs a two-way deal or is let go over the summer.

JW, Really? Nurse back to junior where I think he has topped out? Why not send him to OKC if eligible or keep him up and give him 5/6 minutes and let him dictate how fast he progresses.
Just a thought...

The GOOD news is that these players are being developed AWAY from the Oilers coaching staff - therefore they are LEARNING to be 2 way players, unlike the players on the Oilers now, who were thrown in at the deep end, coached by second rate assistant coaches and now everyone is scratching their heads and asking why this happened. Duby and his bad habits - as per Nashville HC, is a prime example of how assistant/specialty coaches in Edmonton are not top class and are letting the team and fans down enormously.

Again, I had the same opinion that you did watching him in the AJHL and a bit in his first year in ND.

Lowetide's site this fall had a number of objective and current links that discussed the vast improvement in his skating. I think Willis may have linked a couple of those in the past few months.

In terms of a shot, I cannot comment as I have not watched him in ND much. I will say that Justin Schultz has almost no heat on his slapshot but has a decent wristshot and the ability to get it through. Smarts seems to go a long way in that regard and NO ONE has ever said that Dillon Simpson is lacking on intelligence - on or off the ice.

Musil is physically a beast, but is a below average skater, IMO. I would be anxious to hear what others think of Craig's boy that have seen him recently. His arrows seem to be moving in the up direction from everything I have read and heard.

The same could be said about Musil's skating and it can be seen in his play. I do watch the Baron games and Musil would bring more by far than Simpson as would Davidson. I read LT's piece and lets say it wasn't the best.

@jw, interesting article. assuming schultz, nurse and marincin won't be traded. what kind of return could we reasonably expect from klefbolm, simpson or any other of the defensive prospects? what package of these and other assets the oilers have could land the oilers a 1 or 2 dman?

It depends on who is available; the sad truth is that Edmonton's best chance to acquire a defenceman in trade is if some team decides they need to move a guy.

I could see Klefbom as being the centerpiece of a deal for a guy like Ehrhoff, though.

Jonathan I like your optomism but you're seriously overvaluing prospects. May or could should be replaced by "most likely" and depth chart position should be relevant to League standards, not Oilers currently. My take
Musil, will never see an Nhl game without a huge increase in foot speed. Was pushed out of a whl teams top 4 as a 19 year old.
Larsen, lack of depth is the only reason hes here, has he improved since hes got here? i dont think so, hard to tell with his "illness"
Nurse, struggling this year, hope for the best, take a few years to see what he is.
J Shultz, wont be a 1-2 anywhere other than a 29-30 team if he doesnt work on his defensive game.
Marincin, looks like he could develop to be a 3-4, again on a team with any kind of depth.
Klefbohm, overhyped, non-descript player, no part of his game over average. Cant see over a 6-7 guy here.
Belov,Hunt, not nhl d-men
Fedun, great story, could be a 6-7
Havent seen enough of the rest to give an opinion.

JW, usually I agree with you but on this one I have to say that you have horribly over-valued some of the prospects.

Justin Shultz is a #3 at best. Look at the way that St.Louis uses Shattenkirk; they are similar players. Shattenkirk plays with Barett Jackman on St.Louis' second pairing. Shattenkirk is the points/puck mover, Jackman is the muscle (but also quite adept at moving the puck).

Justin Shultz will always need that type of partner; in fact, the lack of a Barett Jackman type is a major problem for the Oil.

Nurse IMO is our best shot at a true top pairing D man; he can skate, hit and is mean. But if he doesn't turn out that well, he could be a 2nd pairing guy like Jackman.

The rest of our prospects are not tough or mean, both of which preclude them from being GREAT bottom pairing guys, therefore we will have more of the same "puck mover" d men...which just means that they do what all other defencemen are supposed to do, but are soft.

I'd peg Schultz as a No. 4 today on a good team, but he's also 23 and less than 100 games into his NHL career.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up as a true No. 2 defenceman.

@jw, interesting article. assuming schultz, nurse and marincin won't be traded. what kind of return could we reasonably expect from klefbolm, simpson or any other of the defensive prospects? what package of these and other assets the oilers have could land the oilers a 1 or 2 dman?

You project Nurse to be ready next season? Why are you all of a sudden hitting the panic button on him? Less than a month ago, all you guys were saying was that, while yes hes good, the best thing for him will be seasoning for a few years until he plays in the NHL.

To say he should be on the team next year is a joke because it wont help the team and it will only hurt his development.

I'm still hoping that the Oilers make a trade for PK Subban.......perfect fit for our up and coming young d-men. He is young enough to fit in and has enough experience to be a top two d-man for the Oilers.

Send Yaks, ( either Marincin or Klefbom) and throw in third round draft choice........make it happen Mac T and you will be happy for many years!!

I agree that a trade is needed ,and Yak seems to be the odd man out to me too.

You can't control who the best player available is. If you take Erik Gudbranson over Hall because you need a D... yikes.

Agreed.

But we didn't have to keep taking small forwards. We didn't have to take Yakupov in 2012. I am sure Yak will turn out to be a good player but the point is there (were)are bigger weaknesses on this team. We could have drafted what we needed (Big Centre or Defensemen)or traded down. We didn't have to draft the same type of player that we already had.

It's almost like nobody in this organization is looking ahead. We all look at these franchise defenseman and drool over them wishing that we had one. At the same time, it's said time and time again that you just can't go out and trade for one of them, you have to draft them........and yet until Nurse we didn't.

Careful what you wish for. Overall LA is a very boring team to watch. I totally get that they won the cup in 2012 and will be a playoff team again this year, but they are soooo boring. The 2012 finals was like watching a bad soccer game.

I want to see winning hockey as much as anyone - BUT I would much rather use Chicago as a template. Small sample size, but the Kings have scored like 3 goals in their last 6 games have scored. They are a terrible team to watch play hockey! I have seen them in Edmonton and in Los Angeles and (not counting the ice cleaning girls at Staples), trust me when I say "move along, nothing to see here".

I realize no playoff appearances in eight years does not allow us fans to be too picky ...... just sayin'.

The first year the Oilers won the Cup game one of the final 1-0 Oilers Kevin McClelland scoring.One of the best hockey games I ever watched.

Ah yes, it appears the Oilers did the rebuild backwards, getting the high end offensive talent before the much needed top flight D, and forward depth players.

Since Edmonton can't be a team with nothing but young D on their blue, it doesn't seem realistic to be keeping every single one of these guys for NHL employment. Even between J Schultz, Nurse, Klefbomb, and Marincin, I can't imagine all four end up on the Oilers, or at least I can't imagine the team would be very good if it did happen.

So the question then becomes what could we get back for some of these guys? At least one of these guys could net a top six vet with size and grit and some skill. For example, look at what Foresburgh netted the Capitals last year.

Thanks for the "sugar coating " on our prospects in the AHL in particular . Despite your optimism , the OKC record is worst in the AHL @ 159 goals against . Really do not see how that transmit into any of them doing an awful lot in NHL in the near future ? If they can't do it in the AHL very well , how are they ever going to do it in the NHL ? As for value in trade , quite questionable considering OKC results so far .

BIG JOHN SCOTT!!! Imagine him in an Oiler uniform! Imagine Westgarth, McGrattan, Sestito, Kassian, et al CRAPPING THEIR PANTS EVERY TIME they had to play the Oilers!IMAGINE!!!!!!!! BIG JOHN SCOTT!!!!!!!

Agreed John Scott is a menacing force!

We have Gadzic who is proving more than capable and up to the task.

Thoughts on Brian Boyle….Huge guy….can score (a bit).

Would be a nice centre for Joensuu (I think is worth a look again - plays tough and big) and Gadzic.

That's 8 Defensemen either ready now or next year, not even counting the possible Ekblad.

Although Belov is a UFA next year and unless he gets something similar to KHL money, I doubt he's back in the NHL next year. He hasn't played well enough to get the $3 million he was making in the KHL(I believe that is what he made there).

With only Ference signed for next year, with the more than likely resigned RFA's of Petry and J. Schultz joining him. That is 4 spots open on the Oilers blue line next year.

If the plan is to get McDavid, then I can see them filling those 4 spots with 4 of those rookies and near rookies. Let's hope that is not the plan.

How many of those 8 do you see making the Oilers next year JW?

A lot could happen; I'd guess this:

Schultz and Marincin make the team.

Nurse gets a nine-game cameo and gets returned to junior. Klefbom starts the year in the AHL but comes up once Nurse is shipped back to the OHL.

Hunt stays on the farm, and one of Belov or Fedun is kept as the No. 7. Larsen either signs a two-way deal or is let go over the summer.

I am still a fan of Belov, despite this season being a bit difficult for him. I think that a half to full season of the AHL would have done wonders. There is potential in him, and the other advantage that he brings is that he does sign one year deals only, he has stated the reasoning is that he feels that it motivates him to play for his next contract, so in a way I don't know how much money motivates him per se. He is at a good age for a defenceman also, so I think next season he will do a lot better.

What I do wonder though is if the system the Oil play is the same system used for both OKC and Bakersfield, as that would make the transition quite a bit easier since the speed and quality of the game is the biggest difference and ideally a player would develop by starting in the ECHL, then working up to the AHL, then the NHL. Though a system like that needs stability which I hope the Oil get.

In the end, a sacrifice needs to be made to improve the defence as without that, there isn't a goaltender that will improve the Oil's fortunes no matter who they sign.

Half the roster was over 30. The defensive load was carried by Gonchar, Gill and Scuderi. They brought in vets like Guerin, Kunitz, Satan, Sykora, Fedotenko and Cooke. The young kids certainly contributed, but they weren't the be all and end all of the team's success.

In terms of LA's rebuild I would disagree with you.

Dustin Brown was drafted in 2003. They traded prospects & picks for Carter and Richards who were also drafted in 2003. Kopitar and Quick were drafted in 2005. Justin Williams was drafted in 2000.

LA didn't draft Doughty until 2008 and they didn't win the Cup until 2012. If you ignore Williams, they didn't win the Cup until 9 years after they started rebuilding.

Considering Edm started their rebuild 4 years ago I'd actually say there are very much going like LA.

The answer is you don't know. Not with 100% certainty. If you're looking for risk free running a pro sports franchise isn't for you. Neither is trading stocks. You can't let fear of making the wrong move paralyze you from doing anything.

What I do know is waiting for prospects like Nurse, Klefbom, Marinicin, Gernat, Simpson etc to all develop isn't an answer unless you want another 4-5 years of losing.

Nurse looks like a keeper which means Marinicin and Klefbom are battling for the same spot in the top 4. Keep one, trade the other. Which one depends on who you think has the higher ceiling and who potential trade partners want.

Pit has been in a similar spot with several good D prospects the last few years. Last year they parted with Joe Morrow. This year Maata has looked good so they are looking at moving Dupres.

Thanks for making my point with Despres. He is going to be 23 years old this year. A full 2 - 4 years older than the guys the Oilers are talking about. I am much more comfortable making a decision on a 23 year-old Despres than a 21 year-old Klefbom.

The longer you can put off moving these young D-men, the better. Make the mistake with young forwards. They are significantly easier to replace. Plus, by the time they are 21 or 22 you have a good idea about what they are all about. Defensemen not so much. The learning curve difference between forwards and defense is significant.

I get that you may have to package one or two of them up to get a solid current NHL-ready defenseman. All I am saying is: choose wisely!

Man, I hope your right about the LA pattern.Mac-T has started to add some character and size but the Oilers are still a long way from a LA type team.

Careful what you wish for. Overall LA is a very boring team to watch. I totally get that they won the cup in 2012 and will be a playoff team again this year, but they are soooo boring. The 2012 finals was like watching a bad soccer game.

I want to see winning hockey as much as anyone - BUT I would much rather use Chicago as a template. Small sample size, but the Kings have scored like 3 goals in their last 6 games have scored. They are a terrible team to watch play hockey! I have seen them in Edmonton and in Los Angeles and (not counting the ice cleaning girls at Staples), trust me when I say "move along, nothing to see here".

I realize no playoff appearances in eight years does not allow us fans to be too picky ...... just sayin'.

Petry just cleared 200 games and Schultz hasn't even reached 100. The Oilers should plan for no more than 2 prospects to join them in the next 3 years.

Which means every other prospect should be packaged for top pairing D that are 25-28 y/o and to fill other holes in the roster.

That is the problem. Which ones do you move?

Who is to say which (or any) of the Simpson, Gernat, Klefbom, Nurse, Gustafsson, Musil - hell even Marincin - group are going to be viable to very good NHL d-men?

Nurse is 18, has pedigree and physical tools. I think you have to keep him. That is easy. But no one can definitively say how good (or average) any of the other guys are going to be when they are 25.

No one wants to trade away the next Ryan McDonaugh. I totally understand what you are saying - especially if they draft Ekblad, but I would want to be very careful about packaging young defensemen. Nothing can bite you in the a$$ more.

It very well may happen, even should happen, but this organization does not instill confidence that they can identify talent in young D-men. For the love of "Gord", hire someone from Nashville.