Roy Amara

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was a researcher, scientist, futurist[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering,[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute

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His statement, paraphrased by Robert X. Cringely, is a computing adage which has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[5][6]

This law has been described as encouraging people to think about the long-term effects of technology,[7] and has been described as best illustrated by the hype cycle, characterized by the "peak of inflated expectations" followed by the "trough of disillusionment".[8]