COMPARED to the great majority of African countries, Somalia is one characterised largely by distinctive homogeneity.

Regardless of regional distribution all Somalis speak the same language,
practice the same religion – virtually all belong to the “Shafi i Rite” of the
Sunni faction of Islam - and eat the same food – with only minor deviations. Though there is a small Somali Bantu population, descendants from various East African populations, most of them converted to Islam.

In this sense the country does
not compare to Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa or Ethiopia where the plethora of
ethnic groups and tribes make bringing everyone onto the same page, a mammoth task.

Yet, Somalia is a country so
divided it has failed to form a unified government since the beginning of the war in 1991.

During the Siad Barre
dictatorship (1969-91) one of the strongest governmental emphasis was to eliminate
clan-associations. Anyone openly declaring themselves from a particular clan
risked being reported by the numerous Barre-spies and placed in
custody.
Often for an undefined period
of time.

So divided is Somalia one of it’s breakaway territories, Somaliland, woke up this morning with a light head having just celebrated its 24th “independence” anniversary on May 18th - a secessionist move that followed some time after the overthrow of Barre.

Therefore as it stands, Somalia is now been divided into three
regions each with a separate president and each from a different clan.

Hawiye – the Arab connection

The clan of Hawiye, predominant
in the south of Somalia and the capital Mogadishu, as well as the main towns of
Merka and Kismayo, is believed to be the largest clan in the country, by
population.

According to historic evidence
they are the descendants of the Arab migrants and a brother-clan to the Dir
ethnic group ruling Djibouti.

Hawiye divides into a number of sub-clans, most notably
Ajuran, Degodia, Habir Gedir, Hawadle, Murosade and Abgal - the ethnic group of
the only internationally recognised Somali president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

The political influence of the Hawiyes in Mogadishu,
however, hasn’t been dominant. Ever since 1960, when Aden Abdullah Osman Daar
became the first president of Somalia – himself a Hawiye - the country saw
three Darod presidents, three Hawiyes and two Rahanweins.

But a faithlessness in the fair power sharing, lack of
control of the distant northern territories and non-representation of the large
clan of Isaaqs, lead to a national divide.

Isaaq – the first to
want out

As soon as Somalia descended into
civil war, the Isaaqs of Somaliland (area initially colonised by the English
not Italians, making it more conducive for a separatist movement)
declared themselves an independent country.

Despite being unrecognised by all
sovereign countries on the international stage Somaliland managed to strengthened its economic and political
individuality, creating a separate monetary system and a relatively stable,
markedly more secure living environment.

Today, the president Ahmed
Mohamed Mohamoud, himself a Habar Jeclo from the Isaaq
clan, prides in the Somaliland’s progresses and achievements vis-à-vis its two
brother “countries”.

Isaaqs, unlike most other Somali
clans, are fairly concentrated in one area, allowing the formation of
Somaliland to be a one-opinioned affair.

In addition, unlike other
clans, Isaaqs seem to be more liberal by nature and less fanatical by faith. A
characteristic which allows them to attract more foreign investment and build a
more inclusive society.

Darod – Together, but in separate ways

Nevertheless, despite their
softer attitude they still maintain hostility to borderline disputes with
neighbouring Darod-stronghold, Puntland.

Puntland seems to be the most
confusing from the three presidential zones. It considers itself an autonomous
(or sometimes semi-autonomous) region, part of the greater Mogadishu-Somalia,
but in reality working as a totally independent country.

It hosts a full-blown government
and all the necessary ministries and does not listen to the president Hassan Sheikh
Mohamud, whose southern rule is entirely ineffective in the north.

Puntand is composed primarily of
Darods, in particular Majerteens, from which roots president Abdiweli Mohamed
Gaas descends.

In spite of autonomy from
Mogadishu Puntlanders always underline their close ties with the south, most
visibly manifested by mounting a local flag side by side with a Somali flag and
by writing their territorial name as “Puntland, Somalia”, instead of just
Puntland, like in the case of ‘Somaliland.’

Three clans one future

This said, it is difficult to
imagine Somalia building a successful future as three separate nations. If you
ask a Somalilander he or she will promptly reply that it has already happened.
But Puntland, at least in theory, would express an interest in joining
Mogadishu once it regains adequate stability.

Of course, this willingness is
subject to many factors, most importantly the question: will the Puntland
government be willing to surrender its power to the south?

This relationship reflects a
Somali clan-rule history. Darods and Hawiyes shared power since the
independence of Somalia in 1960. Isaaqs did not. Somaliland knows that its
people, if reunited with the government in Mogadishu, will not be represented –
if not for the historical and current social relation, at least for pure
reasons of democracy: Somaliland population constituting only 35% of the total
Somalia population (and not 100% of them are Isaaq!).

Nonetheless, it is doubtful if
Somaliland gets international recognition. It is Mogadishu that is currently
gaining more international support and Mogadishu means unification.

The future of Somalia should be
one, but if we learnt something from the country’s past, it is its
unpredictability.