Don’t Confuse Fognini With Djokovic

Roger Federer put away Fabio Fognini in less time than it takes to watch an average movie.

Roger Federer has looked dominant in his first two matches at Wimbledon, dropping fewer games than he has in the first two matches of a Grand Slam tournament in four-and-a-half years. Then again, when Federer has looked this good early in the first week of majors, he hasn’t always held the winner’s trophy at the end of the second week.

Federer has been a fixture at the second week of majors since Wimbledon in 2004, reaching at least the quarterfinals each time. But his path sometimes is rocky – such as at the French Open last month, when he dropped three sets on his way to the quarterfinals against relatively weak opposition.

No such wobbles at Wimbledon so far, where by winning the men’s singles title Federer can retake the No. 1 ranking he last yielded two years ago. He has dropped just nine games through six sets in his two matches, the fewest in his first two matches at a major since he lost just six games against Fabrice Santoro and Diego Hartfield at the 2008 Australian Open. That tournament started well but ended poorly, with a straight-sets loss in the semifinal to Novak Djokovic – suggesting Federer’s form in early-round matches against unseeded opponents says little about how he’ll do against tougher opposition.

In one respect, Federer was even more dominant in the early rounds last year at Wimbledon. Dominance ratio is a better indicator than games lost of how much control a player has over a match, and it is the basis for The Wall Street Journal’s Wimbledon Tracker, which monitors player performance. It is the ratio of the percentage of return points won by a player to the percentage of return points won by his opponent. A 6-4 set isn’t in major doubt if the winner is never challenged on serve and has chances in more than one of his opponent’s service games to break, whereas a 6-0 set can be closer if every game is up for grabs. A dominance ratio greater than one indicates the player has the edge in the match; above two, and he is dominant.

Federer’s dominance ratio in his first two matches this year was 2.22 and 2.47, respectively. That’s about in line with the 2008 Australian Open, and ahead of his first two matches at the 2003 U.S. Open, when he lost in the fourth round. He was even more dominant in his first two matches at Wimbledon in 2004 – when he won the title – and at Wimbledon last year, when he was upset in the quarterfinals by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

While Federer’s easy route to the third round may not guarantee him a title or even a berth in this year’s final, it did help him gain the advantage of getting through safely before rain delayed play Wednesday afternoon. Federer needed just 75 minutes to beat Fabio Fognini, after taking just 80 minutes to beat Albert Ramos in his first-round match on Monday. Part of his speed in dispatching his opponents is a reflection of the lopsided scorelines. Part also is due to his speedy pace between points, an exception – even a throwback – in an era when tennis matches keep stretching longer.

Federer averaged just 14.5 seconds and 6.4 ball bounces between points for 10 of his service points timed at the start of the third set. That’s well inside the 20 seconds allowed at Grand Slam tournaments, and much faster (and less bouncy) than the pre-serving routines of the world’s top two players, Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Against Federer, Fognini also played quickly, with an average of 18.1 seconds and 8.1 bounces.

“I think it’s more enjoyable for fans,” Federer said after the match about the fast pace. “For me, at the end of the day it doesn’t matter that much. I have to be able to play fast pace and then also slow. … Sometimes when you do play faster between points you sometimes do lose your focus as well. I get the idea of taking your time, honestly.”

Federer was less forgiving of slow play in March, when he said, “I’m not complaining a lot, but I don’t know how you can go through a four-hour match with Rafa and he never gets a time violation. It’s natural that even I would go over time, but they never call it. There are times when they could be a bit more firm because at the end of the day I don’t know if fans are getting frustrated to watch five points that are going to take us five minutes.” At Wimbledon, Federer has gotten in 1.75 points per minute in his two matches so far. Nadal got in just 1.33 points per minute in his first-round win Tuesday, while Djokovic moved along at a relatively brisk 1.6 points per minute on Monday.

Federer is into the third round ahead of both of his rivals, thanks to schedulers putting him first Wednesday and his speedy, strong play. If he can keep it up, and keep moving quickly, that could translate into an advantage later in the tournament as rain threatens to push some other players to play on consecutive days.

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