Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; Throughout history people have searched for a means of predicting the outcomes of battles. Data analysis is a way of understanding the factors associated with battle outcomes. There are objective factors, such as force ratio, and subjective factors, such as leadership, that affect battles. Subjective factors are hard to determine and thus are usually avoided in models. Here, nationality is investigated as a surrogate for subjective factors. That is, we want to see how nationality is associated with battle outcomes by exploring the best available data set on historical land combat-developed by the Center for Army Analysis. We focus on four countries for which there is sufficient data: the USA, Germany, Britain and Israel. We find that these countries historically use a substantial amount of military power to defeat their enemies. In particular, the USA often has overwhelming force. Using classification tree models, with a correct classification rate of 79 percent, the results suggest that nationality was the most important factor in battles before World War I and the second most important factor during the World Wars. Force ratio was the most important factor in WWI and artillery ratio in WWII. In the years following WWII...

This thesis examines the following hypothesis: Through the combined use of common training and collaborative planning, a decision maker may sufficiently alleviate the harmful effects of an environment of information so that he/she can continue to make effective decisions. An environment of extreme information ambiguity, a dependent variable, is one of the most difficult components of a battle where the decision maker may reach a confusing and debilitating point where surviving seems less and less likely. Common training, an independent variable, purports that everyone who is relevant to the situation in the battlespace has similar skills, education, doctrine, and standards of performance coupled with comparable experiences. Collaborative planning, an independent variable, connotes a sharing of ideas; synchronization of assets, use of information technology, global real-time mission planning, face-to-face meetings, and other information sharing techniques for situations of collective concern. This thesis is a unique and in depth exploration of the relation of these three variables. Until now, no other research has looked at the relation of common training and collaborative planning with respect to decision making in environments of extreme information ambiguity. In order to explore the model the researcher analyzed two historical military battles: the Battle of Trafalgar and the Battle of Midway. Detailed research using a case study method was conducted to determine if the battles substantiated the thesis model. Research results indicate that for the maritime battles studied...

Lt. Laurance Safford, who is often called the “father” of Navy cryptology, became the officer-in-charge of the Office of Naval Intelligence Code and Signal Section in 1924. The following year, in a prescient speech to Naval Postgraduate School students, Safford said: “All nations have learned the lessons of the World War and will probably make even greater efforts to intercept and read enemy messages in the future than were made in the past…In a war between nations of approximately equal strength, Radio Intelligence could easily become the decisive factor.”
By the late1920’s, NPS communications courses included coding and decoding; by the early 1930’s, cryptography and cryptanalysis. Admiral Chester Nimitz expanded NPS student input in radio engineering and communications in 1939 and later added specialized graduate programs for Navy reservists. The first reservists in communications intelligence, shown in a class photobelow, completed their studies in the summer of 1941. These NPS alumni werewell prepared for immediate assignment to cryptology units during the rapid, post-Pearl Harbor mobilization. They played an important role in breaking the Japanesecode, JN-25, which led to key victories at the Battles of Coral Sea and Midway in 1942.
Captain Earl Stone...

In military operations research, it is often desired to estimate the expected casualties that would accrue to each side in a battle between opposing forces. One way to obtain credible estimates is to use field tests in which battles with engagements between battle units (such as tanks, armored personnel carriers and ground-to-ground missile systems) are simulated. One common feature of such simulated battles is the use of real time casualty assessment to determine the outcome of each engagement. Real time casualty assessment uses pre-set probabilities of kill, or Pk values; a Bernoulli trial with a Pk appropriate for the conditions of the engagement determines whether the battle unit fired upon is killed and thus removed from further play in the battle. For various reasons, it may be desired to estimate the expected numbers of battle units of given types that would be killed for Pk values different from those used in the experiment. This can be accomplished, using adjustments to the estimates obtained for the original experiment. Such estimators can be based on the computed aliveness of surviving battle units. We discuss two formulations of the aliveness concept, and compare the resulting estimators

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.; A comparison is performed of battlefield effects of 3X8 field artillery cannon battalions using two different methods of employing battery fires. Battles conducted at the National Training Center are used as a basis for developing scenarios for analysis. The NTC Livefire OPFOR is replicated in Janus, and artillery missions from actual battles are fired against it. The two methods of artillery employment are platoon fires and battery fires. A statistical analysis is performed on the results, and the operational implications are presented. The findings indicate that the method of employing batteries, a unified battery versus independent platoons, does influence the number of kills obtained. But which method yields the best effects is highly dependent upon numerous, scenario related factors.

The research presented in this paper attempts to show how using a competitive approach to artificial intelligence (AI) design can lead to improvement of the AI soltions used in military simulatins. To demonstrate the potential of the competitive approach, ORTS, a real-time strategy game engine is used. The idea is to setup a tournament of virtual battles between base case AIs and new test AIs, and by using the informaiton from these battles o advance the test AIs. The analysis of the results from the experimental tournament shows possible advantages and application of the competitive approach. At the end of the paper, some conclusions and recommendations for future work are made.

This paper shows that one can determine whether or not it is beneficial for
the victor to initially commit as many forces as possible to battle in
Lanchester-type combat between two homogeneous forces by considering the
instantaneous casualty-exchange ratio. It considers the initial-commitment
decison as a one-sided static optimization problem and examines this nonlinear
program for each of three decision criteria (victor's losses, loss
ratio, and loss difference) and for each of two different battle-termination conditions (given force-level breakpoint and given force-ratio breakpoint)
.
The paper's main contribution is to show how to determine the sign of the
partial derivative of the decision criterion with respect to the victor's
initial force level for general combat dynamics without explicitly solving the
Lanchester-type combat equations. Consequently, the victor's optimal initialcommitment
decision many times may be determined from how the instantaneous
casualty-exchange ratio varies with changes in the victor's force level and
time. Convexity of the instantaneous casualty-exchange ratio is shown to
imply convexity of the decision criterion so that conditions of decreasing
marginal returns may be identified also without solving the combat equations.
The optimal initial-commitment decision is shown to be sensitive to the decision
criterion for fixed force-ratio breakpoint battles.; supported by the Foundation Research Program of the Naval Postgraduate School with funds provided by the Chief of Naval Research; http://archive.org/details/optimalcommitmen00tayl; N0001477WR70044

This paper shows that much new information about the dynamics of combat between two homogeneous forces modelled by Lanchester-type equations of modern warfare (also frequently referred to as 'square-law' attrition equations) with temporal variations in fire effectivenesses (as expressed by the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients) may be obtained by considering Liouville's normal form for the X and Y force-level equations. It is shown that the relative fire effectiveness of the two combatants and the intensity of combat are two key parameters determining the course of such Lanchester-type combat. New victory-prediction conditions that allow one to forecast the battle's outcome without explicitly solving the deterministic combat equations and computing force-level trajectories are developed for fixed-force-ratio-breakpoint battles by considering Liouville's normal form. These general results are applied to two special cases of combat modelled with general power attrition-rate coefficients. A refinement of a previously know victory-prediction condition is given. Temporal variations in relative fire effectiveness play a central role in these victory-prediction results. Liouville's normal form is also shown to yield an approximation to the force-level trajectories in terms of elementary functions; supported jointly by Naval Analysis Programs (Code 431)...

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited; Since the advent of Naval Warfare, Tactical Knowledge Management (KM) has been critical to the success of the On Scene Commander. Today's Tactical Knowledge Manager typically operates in a high stressed environment with a multitude of knowledge sources including detailed sensor deployment plans, rules of engagement contingencies, and weapon delivery assignments. However the WarFighter has placed a heavy reliance on delivering this data with traditional messaging processes while focusing on information organization vice knowledge management. This information oriented paradigm results in a continuation of data overload due to the manual intervention of human resources. Focusing on the data archiving aspect of information management overlooks the advantages of computational processing while delaying the empowerment of the processor as an automated decision making tool. Resource Description Framework (RDF) and XML provide the potential of increased machine reasoning within a KM design allowing the WarFighter to migrate from the dependency on manual information systems to a more computational intensive Knowledge Management environment. However the unique environment of a tactical platform requires innovative solutions to automate the existing naval message architecture while improving the knowledge management process. This thesis captures the key aspects for building a prototype Knowledge Management Model and provides an implementation example for evaluation. The model developed for this analysis was instantiated to evaluate the use of RDF and XML technologies in the Knowledge Management domain. The goal for the prototype included: 1. Processing required technical links in RDF/XML for feeding the KM model from multiple information sources. 2. Experiment with the visualization of Knowledge Management processing vice traditional Information Resource Display techniques. The results from working with the prototype KM Model demonstrated the flexibility of processing all information data under an XML context. Furthermore the RDF attribute format provided a convenient structure for automated decision making based on multiple information sources. Additional research utilizing RDF/XML technologies will eventually enable the WarFighter to effectively make decisions under a Knowledge Management Environment.; Civilian...

Since ancient times, adversary modeling has been used during wargaming exercises in which military leaders have recreated past battles or simulated future battles in order to educate military professionals. Although the technology today is much different, adversary modeling still serves the same goals - to help military professionals learn tactics from past successes and mistakes. In the computer age, highly accurate models and simulations of the enemy can be created. However, including the effects of motivations, capabilities, and weaknesses of adversaries in current wars is still extremely difficult. Limit Texas Hold'em poker, with many attributes similar to real-world warfare, is an excellent test-bed to study and improve adversary modeling. For example, stochastic outcomes which deal with multiple independent agents, deception, and acting amidst uncertainty, are some of the aspects of poker that closely resemble important aspects of warfare. These attributes make poker a better choice as a study platform than other traditional games, such as chess, where there is no deception or uncertainty. The defined rules of poker provide researchers with a controlled environment to improve and test adversary-modeling techniques. Perfecting adversary modeling in poker will allow simulators to improve and generate more accurate models for wargames...

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; The purpose of this thesis is to determine which of three competing theories of what occurred at the Battle of Little Bighorn is the most plausible by utilizing the Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) program developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. There are many practical gains that JCATS can provide today's military with regard to training and educating soldiers for future conflicts. JCATS can be used to train soldiers in planning and executing missions in ways not feasible with conventional field training exercises utilizing live bodies and real vehicles. It is also increasingly being used for actual mission planning. However, very little has been done using JCATS to war-game past operations. There are two points to be gained by using JCATS to model a historical battle such as the Battle of Little Bighorn. First, it validates the ability of JCATS to accurately model actual historical scenarios while identifying many of the specific limitations of the program. If the military is going to use computer simulations such as JCATS in lieu of field training exercises to train soldiers, it must first be determined if the program produces realistic results. Modeling an actual battle and comparing the results of the program with what actually occurred is one means of doing so. Second...

The Navy Warfare Development Command has taken the lead in studying needed capabilities for the Navy After Next. Amongst the ideas they are considering are innovative special purpose littoral warfare platforms as well as alternative relationships between platforms, sensors, weapons and information. This thesis presents a low-resolution model for analysis of Navy After Next concepts and demonstrates the potential use of the model. Presented is an adaptation of the existing Hughes Salvo Model which had been limited to analysis of engagements between forces composed of identical units, i.e., homogeneous forces. This heterogeneous extension is an analytical device that captures the unique combat characteristics of individual units. The model helps decision makers understand salvo warfare of heterogenous forces by simplifying the complex relationships within and between forces during battle. Using a previous work that tested Hughes' model, the accuracy of this heterogeneous salvo model is examined by comparing results. This thesis further demonstrates the strength of the heterogeneous salvo model through an analysis of a hypothetical campaign scenario and through an examination of alternative tactics.--Report documentation page.

This study explores important factors in battle outcomes through a statistical analysis of data from major historical battles. The data set of CDB90FT has been made available and documented by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA). The quality of the historical data is good. There are 660 battles listed in the data set containing over 140 numerical features for each battle. The earliest battle in the data Set is the Netherlands' War of Independence in 1600, while the last one is from the Israel- Lebanon War in 1982. The data set contains many interesting facts on the battles including the initial strengths, the total strengths, the number of casualties, the lengths of the front lines, terrain features, command capability of leaders, weather conditions, etc. The approach is to use the data set as the basis for an objective and scientific comprehensive analysis, seeking patterns, trends, and relationships in combat. After making campaign-wise grouping and analysis, it is found that the Force Ratio is a valid estimator of the battle outcome. In addition, the Casualty Rate has declined steadily over the past four centuries while Dispersion has increased.; Turkish Army author.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.; This thesis describes the development and validation of a naval battle model which incorporates a tactical theory by Captain Wayne P. Hughes, Jr. Opposing forces are portrayed as aggregations of the staying power and combat power of their individual platforms. Attrition is modeled as a force-on- force process and is expressed in terms of the degradation of each force's combat power and staying power throughout the engagement, user variation of model inputs concerning the timing, direction and strength of each force's fire permits analysis of the impact of scouting effectiveness and Command and Control on battle dynamics. Data from fourteen historical naval battles were gathered to compute model input parameters for the opposing forces and their interactions. The model's prediction of the outcome is compared with each battle's actual outcome. The conclusion drawn from this analysis that the model is a fair representation of reality. The model's potential for practical application is explored by using it to analyze the tactical options of the U.S. commander at the World War II Battle of Savo Island. Model results clearly indicate the weakness in U.S. tactics in this battle and suggest alternative tactics which afforded a better chance of success. (Author); Lieutenant...

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.; The primary objective of this thesis is to propose a template for a National Space Warfighting Architecture (NSWA). The template is intended to fill the void that exists between national security space policies and the services' space warfighting plans. As such, it will provide a unifying framework for follow-on discussions and debate about the proper direction of space-based operational and tactical combat support. In support of this objective, this thesis aims to: provide the proper focus for the architecture; identify the key conceptual ideas that should drive its development; establish a common vocabulary among managers of the Space-based Strategic Reconnaissance Surveillance Program, service space support officers, and terrestrial warfighters; develop a logical and meaningful architectural organizational approach; facilitate the comparison between space-based and terrestrial-based combat support systems; and show how the NSWA fits within the larger framework of the National Space Program.; Major, United States Marine Corps

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.; This report develops a modern naval combat model. It deals with naval surface missile combat and models the attrition as a force-on-force process described in discrete time steps, or slaves. The degradation of each force is expressed in terms of remaining staying power and combat power in both opponents. It is based on Lt. Beall's model, but since it deals with missile warfare it incorporates several human factors that affect the outcome of a naval battle: specifically scouting effectiveness, leadership, morale, and training.; Lieutenant, Hellenic Navy

This research was conducted in association with Naval Warfare Development Command (NWDC) requests to update Unmanned Vehicle Tactical Memorandum TM-3-22- 5-SW. The research identified and discussed significant USV manning considerations such as source ratings and manpower qualities to pilot, operate sensors, support USV electronics, and the manpower implications associated with various weapons systems alternatives. In addition, this research described several existing and notional USV tactics, as well as a discussion about the existing N75 and N76 primary and secondary mission areas USV operations may support. The methodology consisted of a literature review of USV test reports; USV Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration briefs; USV Concept of Operations; fleet lessons learned; the USV tactical memorandum; Naval manpower instructions, and manuals; Weapons Tactical, Field, and Training Manuals; Military Utility Assessments; search of books, magazines, and manpower theses. The research found that determining manpower qualities and standard operating procedures will remain a dynamic process until USV equipment is standardized. The research also showed USV launch and recovery is more manpower intensive than that of a standard RHIB. Gunners Mates (GM) and Aviation Ordnancemen (AO) are potential source ratings to support USV Hellfire and Javelin missile modules. The Navy should establish a GM Navy Enlisted Classification (NEC) to support Hellfire and Javelin or add these weapons to existing GM NECs. Electronics Technicians (ET)...

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited; This study explores whether the attacker's daily casualty rate (DCR) changes according to the terrain. The data set is a part of a larger database, Division Level Engagement Database from the Dupuy Institute. There are data on 253 battles, 96 of which occurred in urban areas. All the engagements are selected from European Theater of Operation (ETO) in World War II. The available data set contains measurements about the battles like initial strengths, daily casualties, terrain, front width, linear density, attacker's and defender's country, and armor losses. Hypothesis tests are used to find if the DCR is different in urban operations. A linear regression model is constructed to predict outcomes of similar engagements and to see the effect of each variable. It is concluded that the attacker's daily casualty rate is, on average, lower in urban operations. Terrain and force ratio are the most effective drivers of the daily casualty rate. In addition, it is seen that allied forces (U.S., U.K. and Canada) had a different approach to Military Operations on Urban Terrain than Soviet and German forces. The Allies used extensive combat power in urban operations.; First Lieutenant, Turkish Army

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited; In today's world, the United States is the dominant naval power. World powers are trading naval dominance in favor of naval defense, creating fleets of smaller ships to protect their littoral waters. As a result, the United States Navy will be called upon to engage enemy naval forces to ensure access against asymmetrical threats close to enemy coastlines. The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) is a networked, focused-mission platform, designed to be swift, agile, stealthy, and capable of defeating asymmetric threats in the littorals. Although the LCS has limited capability to handle simultaneous missions, it will not be alone. The experimental guided missile destroyer DD(X) is the U.S. Navy's next-generation; multimission, surface combatant tailored for land attack and littoral dominance, with capabilities designed to defeat current and projected threats. Through simulation, data analysis and design of experiment, this model simulated 15,420 littoral battles to determine if the addition of a multimission platform to an LCS squadron affected overall Blue force casualties and mission effectiveness. The study examined squadron composition, size, and effects of sensors and weapon systems in both a Surface Warfare (SUW) and Anti-Air Warfare (AAW) scenario. The data analysis revealed that a squadron composition of 5 to 11 LCSs with 1 to 2 DDGs in an SUW scenario provided the best outcomes...

The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the offical policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States Government.; The 200-year plus history of the U.S. Navy is a proud story of battles fought and won, of outstanding leaders afloat and ashore, and of selfless service to our Nation. Equally important, it is a story of the continuing application of new technology to the advancement of naval capabilities. From smooth-bore guns to submarine launched ballistic missiles, from sextants to satellite navigation, from sail to
steam to nuclear propulsion, the Navy's progress has been measured by the introduction of technological innovation.; Prepared for: Naval Sea Systems Command; http://archive.org/details/fromresearchtore00depo; N0016701WR10353