Warnings for Europe Convective Outlook 22-6-2017

Moderate risk for severe weather across Germany and West Czech tomorrow with a low tornado threat and high hail threat with a slight issued for East France, Switzerland and Marginal issued for much of Central Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, East Turkey, Georgia and South Russia.

With a cold front moving in from the UK and a upper trough formation ahead and behind the warm front there is a moderate chance for severe weather across Germany and West Czech, SBCAPE values range from 2,000-3,000 j/kg for much of the area with the Mixed Layer ranging from 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg. Potent updrafts are available to form which brings a increased risk of large hail with the storms. With another upper trough forming behind another set of severe weather could potentially form behind the trough which will move in through the day and cause the first bout of severe weather. A isolated tornado threat is present with all of the systems in Germany, SRH looks weak at 100-150m2s2, 0-6km Shear ranging from 30-40kts and 0-1 km shear widespread at 15-30kts. Storms could potentially form early afternoon and form into a line into the late afternoon/evening. Threats are frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, straight line winds and hail.

The slight for East France and Switzerland has been issued for CAPE values that are mostly at 1,000-1,6000 j/kg with a few spikes of over 2,000 j/kg. With the same cold front moving in from the UK that will affect Germany, the same system of storms could form in East France and move SE into parts of Switzerland. The threats with the storms that could potentially form will be moderate to high lightning totals, heavy rainfall, straight line winds and hail threat is present.

The marginal areas have been issued for South East and North Italy with the potential for severe thunderstorms if storms do form in them regions with a CAP Inversion present. If they do form it is unlikely that they will last long. South Central Europe, Romania, Bulgaria and Poland have been issued for a Upper trough formation extending from Romania to Croatia that could bring SBCAPE values of over 1,000 j/kg, There is a hail threat for parts of Austria, West Slovakia, Croatia, Hungary and Slovenia as updrafts do look to be powerful which could potentially bring moderate hail and accumulations.