Saturday, 24 January 2015

UK POLLING REPORT (UNIFORM SWING PROJECTION) #GE2015

274

325

23

10

18

Hung Parliament. Labour short by 1

The standard method of translating shares of the vote into seats is to
use a uniform swing calculation. This means that the national change in
vote share for each party is applied to each individual seat to see how
that would effect the result, and then these theoretical results in each
seat are totted up to produce a projection for House of Commons.
This is a crude measure and can result in some illogical and
impossible projections – for example, if a poll showed Labour support
dropping by 13%, as one poll did during Summer 2008, then a uniform
swing calculation using those figures would project Labour getting less
than zero votes in 48 seats. This is clearly nonsense. Such projections
also ignore any regional variations, tactical considerations or
variations due to incumbency effects of new MPs or MPs standing down.
Despite all these drawbacks, it normally does a reasonably good job and,
given that it is a straight extrapolation of current voting figures it
is at least accepted as a fair projection that is not at the whim of
individual guesswork or assumptions.For the avoidance of doubt, since some point find this difficult
to understand even when I’ve explained it carefully to them, this is NOT my prediction of what will happen at the election. It is a uniform swing projection based on the current average of the polls.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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