One of the country's top economists is predicting big things this year for Newfoundland and Labrador.

CIBC's Avery Shenfeld addressed the St. John's Board of Trade's annual business summit on Thursday morning.

He said the province had no overall growth and was the poorest provincial performer for 2012, despite good employment numbers.

"2012 was a year where most of the economy did fine, but because of disruptions in energy output and because that sector is so large, it actually makes the overall growth number pretty close to zero," said Shenfeld. "The overall economy looks like it goes from boom to bust in very short order. You see the same sort of thing in Alberta to some extent, and both of those provinces' finance ministers find that a challenge because you're budgeting then with very uncertain revenues from year to year."
Predictions for 2013

However, Shenfeld forecasts Newfoundland and Labrador will lead the country in 2013 with 4.4 per cent growth in gross domestic product, largely because offshore oil production will come back to full strength.

At Thursday's business show, those in the private sector were smiling.

Denis Mahoney, president of the St. John's Board of Trade, said the boom is here.

"It's an opportunity. We think this is the beginning of a great opportunity," said Mahoney. "We need a population strategy to bring more people to this province to help us diversify, to help strengthen our economy, to help businesses succeed."

Shenfeld said the provincial government must reign in spending and make more conservative revenue projections. He added that while 2013 looks strong, it's important to bear in mind that long-term growth is still modest until big projects such as Hebron and Muskrat Falls come online.

Getting data to oil companies
Martin said the next step is to get the data to oil companies. He added that several have already shown interest.

"Our job now is to find as many companies in the world as possible, get this data in their hands," said Martin. "Once they see it, have a scheduled sale so that not only one or two are in bidding, but we hopefully can get eight, 10 or 12 companies bidding on this prospective land."

NOIA president Bob Cadigan says the news has created quite a buzz in the industry.

"It's a game changer," said Cadigan. "It quadruples the size of the prospective areas we have offshore."

Potential in the long-term
Cadigan said the discovery could lead to big things.
"I think for a lot of our members they're just starting to really realize now how much more potential this will give us in the long-term," said Cadigan. "So if you think about it we have three, four with Hebron, producing operations in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin — that's just one basin. We've discovered four new ones off the coast of Labrador. So it's really important."

But collecting the data has not been cheap - costing the provincial government between $26 and $30 million.

Martin said Nalcor will spend five million more to further interpret the data. He plans to give an update at the NOIA conference sometime this summer.

The number of people in Newfoundland and Labrador who rank among Canada's top earners has catapulted, federal tax statistics suggest.

Statistics Canada says the number of people earning salaries higher than $200,000 has jumped by 51 per cent since 2006.

More than 2,000 people in the province now fall into that category.

Alison Coffin, who teaches economics at Memorial University, said Thursday the number will continue to climb.

"We are now in a position where we have to - if we want to attract good, smart, educated, capable people - we have to pay them on par with other jobs across Canada that are comparable to that," Coffin said.

"We are going to see that at higher levels, and we are also going to see that at lower levels."

Coffin said salaries in many sectors lagged behind other provinces, but that has been changing with new developments, as well as a shift in the long-term economic outlook.

Coffin noted, though, that the spike in executive positions does not mean that Newfoundland and Labrador is automatically a wealthier province.

"We're seeing an influx of high-salaried positions, but not so much of an increase in the wealth and the investment money into the province, and that why we're seeing a bit of a disparity, because the number of people in these top positions are now flowing into the province as we need them," she said.

Coffin said the top earners tend to work in the offshore oil industry, mining and other parts of the private sector

I'm thinking 500,000 plus (I am an optimist but the catalysts of population growth don't lie)

Shhh I actually think that by the time I'm like 70 it will be MUCH MUCH more than that but I know others might be less optimistic so I'll let you know in like 20 years lol

Really? I don't even see how that's possible. We only have half a million people in the province. If every single person on the island up and moved to St. John's and rural NL completely died (which I would HATE and would be devastatingly horrible) than we could be a 500k city. I can't see us growing to be half a million in the next century because we rural NL should never die and i don't think we can realistically attract that many people from out of the province to live here.

I hope see 350,000 people call St. John's home in my lifetime (I'm 18, so i have plenty of time!) and even that might be a stretch. Half a million, while awesome, seems very unrealistic to me. but i would love nothing more than to be proven wrong!!

Really? I don't even see how that's possible. We only have half a million people in the province. If every single person on the island up and moved to St. John's and rural NL completely died (which I would HATE and would be devastatingly horrible) than we could be a 500k city. I can't see us growing to be half a million in the next century because we rural NL should never die and i don't think we can realistically attract that many people from out of the province to live here.

I hope see 350,000 people call St. John's home in my lifetime (I'm 18, so i have plenty of time!) and even that might be a stretch. Half a million, while awesome, seems very unrealistic to me. but i would love nothing more than to be proven wrong!!

I think it is possible due to people moving in from away! lol not the complete drain of rural NL

I was once told that for every person in NL there is a Newfoundland away from the province .. so get people moving home (of course not everyone but still) and people from other provinces and immigrants too

However there are many many many NLers still on the mainland which is one population we could tap into but rural NL isn't the only population we can draw from lol

look at dubai, only 17% are even from the UAE!!! lol (not saying we will want that set up, just pointing out that there's tonnes of room for growth) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai

There are far more than that many people with Newfoundland ancestry. Most of the major cities in Canada had thousands of Newfoundland-born residents at a time when they only had tens of thousands of residents.

Take Halifax, for example.

In 1921 it was home to 58,372 people. Of them, 2,719 were Newfoundland born (we know this exactly because they were, at that time, immigrants to Canada and had to be very well-documented).

That's 4.7% of Halifax's population. And that ONLY includes those born in Newfoundland. It doesn't include their children, or their grandchildren... and we all know how strongly our people cling to their culture through the generations, even when living elsewhere.

Now, generations later, the number of people in Halifax who can directly trace their ancestry to Newfoundland is certainly in the tens of thousands.

Seriously though I would love to see St. John's grow to a city that had more economic and political pull on the national stage.

One thing I've noticed which could hinder growth is misinformation. Whenever we tell people here in Ontario that we're moving to St. John's we always get this bewildered look and all they seem capable of saying is "Why?" Like we've told them we're moving to the moon or something.

I think St. John's needs to re-introduce itself to the country, let people know that the horse and buggy days are over. I tell people here that St.John's is only 3 hours from Toronto and if they haven't made the trip themselves they don't really believe me.

And I've noticed that people in Ontario have a very static view of what Newfoundland is, for instance they really believe that no one from outside St. John's (and this goes for all of Atlantic Canada) will be welcomed into the community as one of them, that it's a novel place to visit but not to live. One of many such ideas that they just accept as true.

So key to St. John's maximizing its potential is to re-educate the rest of the country, not sure the best way to go about this, but I know it will be a bit of an uphill battle.

I suppose larger growth is possible. Let's try to attract the young people living away with young children/babies. We need more young families! We don't need 200k seniors moving back

Now that Newfoundland and Labrador can afford to do so, to grow St. John's in the long-term will require publicly coordinated investments to make the City appealing to future demographics.

- Urban/high-rise living options, both for students (studio/one bedroom) AND for families (three bedroom +)
- Large, unique parks -- which is one of the most vital amenities to attracting families to the downtown.
- Public transit versatility.
- Museums.
- Theatres.
- etc...

St. John's doesn't need to do away with its height limits (it's part of your physical heritage), but it does need to commit to a decent progression of urban infill and site redevelopment (which may mean tax reform), while curbing urban sprawl so that it isn't creating a future catastrophe with the costs of maintaining infrastructure and public services, in the event oil production slows.

St. John's has plenty of amenities now, but to push forward with growth means to think big and keep volume in mind. Bigger theatres. Bigger parks. Make unique destinations and landmarks, which can only be found in St. John's.

St. John's really hasn't gone out there and introduced itself to the rest of the country as anything more than a tourist city. That's what needs to be done! Of course people are going to think you're bat-shit insane to move here, all they ever see about St. John's are those flashy tourism ads where it make the city look like a quaint village of a few thousand closely-knit people. Sure it has it's audience, but it shouldn't be the only thing we're advertising. Let the country know we have a wealth of engineers, industry jobs, medical professionals, etc. Maybe the country will begin to view us as a real city, and not just a nice place to visit

I think there is a stigma that people moving to the island won't be accepted. It really isn't that ridiculous to think. I've heard that view from people who have moved to the city from other places; they don't feel like the others really accept them. I think one thing that could really help this is if we stop calling people who move to the island as "come-from-away's". I can see how using that term about someone could eventually become degrading, annoying, and make it seem like the locals are shunning them away. I've always hated that term, I've never used it, I wish it would go away. I'd be very unhappy if someone called me "the newfie" all the time. Yes, I'm from Newfoundland, but I'm trying to integrate myself into your province now. Much like these "cfa" 's are doing.

The "come from away" term does have one very useful purpose though. If you call yourself it at Ches's you get a free cupcake!!

Edit: everybody gets a free cupcake at Ches's. cfa's get a free dessert. Pataytoe pawtawtoe.. (My first attempt at writing that phrase resulted in "potato potato" but that wasn't good enough!) I'm just a laugh and a half tonight

The "come from away" term does have one very useful purpose though. If you call yourself it at Ches's you get a free cupcake!!

Edit: everybody gets a free cupcake at Ches's. cfa's get a free dessert. Pataytoe pawtawtoe.. (My first attempt at writing that phrase resulted in "potato potato" but that wasn't good enough!) I'm just a laugh and a half tonight

A free dessert you say? hmmm nah I'd still rather be a townie. Really looking forward to calling myself a townie actually.

I think St. John's (even getting together with the other municipalities in the region) should have a marketing campaign showing off the city as a place to live work and play. I think republic of doyle does a good job at showing us off as urban but to appeal to a larger audience there should be a marketing campaign. We may see things like this with the new growth minister .. or say a new young councilor that takes what you g uys say into deep consideration