Some reports are attributing it to the change in Instagram’s terms of service, which had caused a frenzy on the Web. Facebook’s stock also is down more than 2% today, which could be a result of those reports — any weakness in an app that Facebook paid $1 billion for at the time wouldn’t be well-received by the market.

But it doesn’t seem like the claim that Instagram’s terms of service change led to a massive exodus is true. Instead, it had to do more with the seasonality of app usage, according to AppData. Here’s the statement:

AppData reflects only Facebook-connected users of the Instagram app. Though the terms of service change spurred a lot of negative media attention and complaints from users, the decline in Facebook-connected daily active users began closer to Christmas, not immediately after the proposed policy changes. The drop between Dec. 24 and 25 seems likely to be related to the holiday, during which time people are traveling and otherwise have different routines than usual. A number of other apps saw similar trends, including Skype, Pandora, Pinterest and Yelp.