Stampede to unseat McGinn could help save him

We’re 23 months away from the primary election for the 2013 Seattle mayoral race, and already the potential candidates, sensing that incumbent Mike McGinn is a goner, are positioning themselves like the ballots are about to start arriving in mail boxes any day now. Former King County Executive Ron Sims and former Mayor Greg Nickels have recently said they may run, while City Councilman Tim Burgess and state Sen. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, have done nothing to dissuade people from the idea that they are going to enter the race. Other names floating around include Councilmembers Sally Clark and Bruce Harrell and potentially Council President Richard Conlin and state Rep. Reuven Carlyle, D-Seattle.

McGinn in front of the viaduct in 2010 (Joshua Trujillo/seattlepi.com file photo)

“Her friends and admirers are pushing her to think seriously about running. Daudon says she only spends a few hours a month in exploring the idea, though neither is she rebuffing it. Some are pushing a Daudon candidacy because of their desire to have a woman mayor, or at least a serious woman candidate for mayor. This is a perennial theme, though the strongest possible candidates — Martha Choe, now at the Gates Foundation, Sally Jewell, CEO of REI, Virginia Anderson, former head of Seattle Center, former City Librarian Deborah Jacobs — never accede. Polls indicate a strong desire for a woman mayor, at least in general. (Jan Drago did poorly in the 2007 race.) Others think Daudon’s broad-coalition politics would be just what the doctor ordered for Seattle’s ailing politics.”

McGinn is vulnerable, to be sure, after voters approved the project he fought so hard to stop – the tunnel replacement for the Alaskan Way Viaduct. But six months is a long time in politics, and two years may as well be 200. Keep in mind that President Barack Obama announced he’d sent American forces to kill Osama bin Laden less than five months ago. At the time, pundits were saying that may have clinched his 2012 re-election prospects. Now, following a summer of debt fights and terrible economic news, people are comparing Obama to Jimmy Carter.

Business and labor leaders want to be rid of McGinn, who they never liked. The political establishment wants to be rid of him, because he emerged largely without their help or blessing. But a crowded 2013 field probably does more to help McGinn than hurt him. He’s pretty much guaranteed at least 20 percent of the primary vote next time around – that’s about as low as an incumbent can go (Nickels got 25.3 percent when he was ousted in the 2009 primary; Schell got 21.7 percent in 2001). At this point McGinn can still count on support from the environmentalists, social justice advocates and Seattle’s powerful nightlife/bar lobby, which can help him raise money. If there are four or five other strong candidates in the next primary, they are going to split the vote and make it possible for McGinn to slip through. It’s also going to make life difficult for big business and big labor in this town – who do they support? Sims and Nickels would certainly call in chits from their past lives, as would Daudon.

And McGinn’s potential foes are not without their own weaknesses:

Sims would have to explain why he left King County’s budget in such a mess.

Nickels would have to explain why he couldn’t clear snow from the city’s streets (he’d also face strong opposition from club and bar owners, who never liked him. And they’re one of the main reasons Tom Carr is no longer the City Attorney).

Daudon would have to explain why the National Guard had to be deployed in Seattle to restore order during the 1999 WTO meetings.

Burgess, who is unfairly portrayed as being more conservative than he is, would have to explain that he doesn’t want to give people tickets for being homeless.

Murray would have to defend his role in cutting billions from state budgets to a liberal bloc of voters in town who disagree with the direction the cash-strapped state is taking.

Conlin would have to explain to angry liberals why he was the lone “no” vote against Seattle’s new, paid sick leave ordinance.

And Clark, Harrell and Carlyle would have to seriously raise their profiles in the next two years

McGinn is in trouble, no doubt. But the irony is his weakness may cause his enemies to overplay their hand, providing him with an opportunity, albeit a difficult one, to win the pot.