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Abstract

The efficacy of two simple models for predicting dengue haemorrhagic fever (‎DHF)‎ epidemics are evaluated. One model uses persistence while the other uses past dengue cases and climate factors to make predictions. It is shown that the efficacy of the models is not significantly different. The value of the prediction is also investigated when it is used to decide whether it can protect a household from epidemics. When the model predicts that a DHF epidemic is forthcoming, a highly effective but lowcost DEET product is applied by the whole family as protection against mosquito bites. It is found that the cost of implementing such a model for prediction is much cheaper than other options such as: (‎i)‎ using protection without any forecast; and (‎ii)‎ neglecting any protection. It is also found that the value of a forecast depends on the forecast skill and the cost-to-loss ratio.