It is quite clear that the selected articles are juxtaposed against each other in order to provide contrast for the never ending "inflation-deflation" debate... What annoys me most of the time is that the argument oftentimes devolves too rapidly into one of semantics (prices, values, definitions, etc.)...

As always, CV is interested in "practical" matters... How things play out and actually impact your actual life... NOT how they look on some chart, graph, or ledger... I have a lot of direct expeience in that subject area having been involved in fitness all my life... I spend 99.9% of my "professional contact hours" with people, trying to get them to actually FEEL what they're doing (IOW - not how it's changing their body - but instead, how it's changing their thoughts - and more importantly, if that is having a positive effect on their life & outlook on things)... That's why I've never been a real fan of workout videos (even though I did some early on)... I quickly moved out of that business because I realized that they were one dimensional... It's a snake oil business... Hey - but I guess it's a "job", right?

I'm more interested in peoples "emotional" attachment to activity... Why? Because that's the thing that's going to live on (activism - the act of getting up and "doing things" - is transferrable)... That's the thing that's going to bring quality to life... It's the thing that's going to make you believe that you can replicate the process... Because you CAN... In the process, the things that don't bring quality to your life are going to eventually be discarded...

To jump rails for a moment here... In the case of Americans (and western society), a strong attachment to "consumerism" has evolved over the past century or more... What has fed that beast, have been breathtaking advances in:

The question remains, however... "Has everything you've accumulated over all this time really brought QUALITY to your life"?... It's probably hard to argue that it hasn't brought CONVENIENCE, but has it brought QUALITY?

That's at the center of the INFLATION-DEFLATION debate to this author... Technically - here is a sampling of things I see going forward... We are on a path that there will continue to be INFLATION in things we want and need & DEFLATION in things that we don't require, or, have adequate substitutes...

ON THE INFLATION SIDE

- Food is already inflating... If you don't see it "price wise", it's because they've managed to stuff inferior products into smaller boxes... Most Americans hardly notice, because they've been conditioned to eat dogfood for many years now... It will cost you quite dearly to eat well in the future...

- Safety will continue to inflate... Safety in everything (wealth preservation [whatever the FLAV of the day is in that], home security, procurement, etc.)...

- Entertainment... I'm not talking about the devices you watch to be entertained... I'm talking about the "artists" themselves... The athletes, celebrities, politicians, actors, etc... Remember, the term "INFLATION" has less to do with "prices", but rather the idea that these are high value targets, and will do better than the mean...

- Accomodations... Home heating & air conditioning... The cost of electricity to power the devices you deem convenient... Most have only experienced the "build up" process in obtaining these things... There is an incredible amount of WASTE (which is money lost forever), in abusing these things... As electricity bills go higher and higher, certain people will have to begin to make choices... And with that will come lifestyle changes... I'm actually waiting for the day that people actually begin to roll-over their attitudes about hand held device usage...

- There are many other things, but that was just a starter sample

ON THE DEFLATION SIDE

- Jobs... Jobs are the ultimate deflation... The joblessness numbers say little else than "your services are not required", "I can manage just fine without you"... Now, if you would agree to work for free, or basically work for peanuts, then things might change... But until then, you'd better hope that your services are so unique that they cannot be replaced... Otherwise, you're living in a delusional state...

- Entitlements... These will deflate on account of dilution... We've already passed the psychological point that we realize that the promises made can & will not be honored... Since most were not prepared for that... a small bone will be tossed to lessen the blow... ANYBODY, though, who can sit back and try to make a seemingly "intellectual" argument such as... "Well look - SOCIALISM works in Denmark (we just need to do it better)", or, "Look at the Chinese... They would have NEVER made it this far if it had not been for all that wonderful central planning"... ANYBODY making, or agreeing with those statements is a TOTAL RETARD...

Again... Though... It's largely a SEMANTIC argument... Why? Because SOCIALISM can and DOES work... How do I know that?... Just look at a basic "family unit"... Nobody really works for pay... Let's say you have a mother & a father and a few kids... (I suppose you could toss gay couples into that mix as well - but to my knowledge, the "traditional" way of procreation is by way of sexual intercourse)... Maybe I'm behind on my science regarding those matters... In any case, a FAMILY, working together as a unit, & a team has brought civilization forward for a long time (& in the process, weathered many catastrophes)...

But that's not to say that ALL families work... In some cases, the figurehead of the family might be some bitchy old hag mother (who has totalitarian instincts)... Who is motivated by selfish control rather than the actual functioning of the family... That type will eventually succeed only to break apart a family (causing it to cease to function)...

In the case of FUNCTIONING families...

You can expand that definition to small "collections" of families (co-ops, Amish, even Mormon groups, are probably the best "root" examples of this)... That's SOCIALISM, by definition (and it works like a charm)... Ironically then, it is a cooperative effort of INDIVIDUALISTIC LIBERTARIANS, working for a common purpose, that provides the best chance of success for a SOCIALISTIC construct... It works because the individuals have a fierce devotion to the process... As such, in practice, it's NOT something that can be duplicated by some AD HOC governmental formation or legislation... Anyone who thinks it can is probably a retard... A horse is a free animal... Over many centuries and millenia, the horse has forged a relationship with man... But a wild horse WILL NOT automatically submit to a bridle... It's not in their DNA...

Personally, I would not want to enter a battle for survival with one of these types who had such a dearth of understanding of the practicality of the situation... I'd rather take my chances on my own, with my own sword in hand, than carry this person, who was chained to my foot and tossing flower petals here and there, while I'm trying to battle the enemy...

- Non-Essentiality... Of course, nominating this seems obvious and redundant... But the reason I mention it anyway is because a lot of the things that will eventually fall into this category have yet to be defined... They WILL be defined based on what's "left over" after procurement of the ESSENTIAL things...

Americans have still not been faced with large scale "non-essentiality" yet... "What do I mean?" You ask... Well - put it this way... Despite more than a decade of a campaign on "global warming" (which is something that you may or may not wish to attribute to fossil fuels), people have barely made a dent in consumption along those lines... The Department of Energy was established in 1977 to wean us off foreign oil, yet we import more than ever now and continue to fight imperialistic wars in order to assure an adequate (relatively cheap) supply...

Only PRICE & AVAILABILITY will ever change behavior on this because we have failed numerous times to make choices on our own... So getting back to "non-essentiality"... My guess is that we'll begin to see what those things are, as we start to give up our cars... That may still be a ways off... But it will happen...

---

I could go on for days on this subject... But it's a subject that's worth prying into from time to time because it's a fundamental aspect of survival... And this is SURVIVOR CAPITAL, after all...

And remember, "surviving" isn't the only aspect of living... "Living" is what living is all about... Otherwise we're all just zombies or vampires...

---

GERRY RAFFERTY (1947-2011) - R.I.P.

MisterBlue55 says:

"I originally posted this video last year and it received a couple of hundred hits. Youtube then saw﻿ fit to take my account down. However, I recently started up again and, as providence would have it, I reposted this video two days before this tragic event - and pow! 20,730 hits in three days! I think the moral of the story here is we don't appreciate talented people like Gerry until they are taken from us..."

CV concurs... We don't appreciate things until they are taken from us...

looks like I was a little 'early' (read: F****** W****) on the CRB sub-320 'call'..

nice reversal in Crude..

pretty Chart:http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.G11.E~~as an aside, with this 11722.89 +31.71 (+0.27%) on the DJIA, wasn't that the 2000-era Peak?

11722..~~cv--

w.this: "- Non-Essentiality... Of course, nominating this seems obvious and redundant... But the reason I mention it anyway is because a lot of the things that will eventually fall into this category have yet to be defined... They WILL be defined based on what's "left over" after procurement of the ESSENTIAL things..."

speaking of 'Semantics', and, really, not to quibble, but, wouldn't 'non-essentiality' be in "Inflation"-mode (?)

though, more to the point, do you find (as well) a dearth of Coverage, by the MSM, on how peeps deal/are dealing with 'non-essentiality'?

past that, it, still, staggers, how few have any 'Stores'--as a bulwark against uncertainty..

so many, still, believe that ~"if things change..I can, just, 'go to the Store, and buy what I'll need'.."

though, more to the point, do you find (as well) a dearth of Coverage, by the MSM, on how peeps deal/are dealing with 'non-essentiality'?

I don't think the MSM (as an entity) has even come close to engaging the topic, nor ever will...

MSM is 'entertainment' pure and simple... The decision makers in that arena aren't likely to think of the topic of SURVIVAL other than a theoretical game... Too depressing... In reality, "survival", to me, is the most envigorating and lively activity I could ever think to undertake...

And since the MSM, (sans the "shell" of being an entity, is actually a collection of individuals - it is logical that SOME of the participants have minds PAST the ENTITY itself... Naturally "some" of that will bleed forth)...

Lastly - I think they'd be SURPRISED to see how many people would embrace and take a liking to real survivalism... You can already see it happen in small ways (shows like 'Survivor', "The Amazing Race", or even "Axe Men", the "Deadliest Catch", "Survivorman", "How it's Made", "Mythbusters" where an effort is made to get down to brass tacks...

past that, it, still, staggers, how few have any 'Stores'--as a bulwark against uncertainty...

speaking of 'Semantics', and, really, not to quibble, but, wouldn't 'non-essentiality' be in "Inflation"-mode (?)

My intent & purpose was to place my definition of "non-essentiality" in the DEFLATION category...

Why?

Because I define DEFLATION as anything people find they can do without...

I'll give you some examples...

- Believe it or not... I got rid of my cell phone over 2 years ago... I live perfectly well without it (and don't even think about it)... I suppose I've saved between $3-$4 thousand dollars (in fees & products) in the process... That same money was used in other directions (buying containers, and storing propane at prices that could be locked in at cheaper prices)... Extra solar panels, greenhouses, composters, replacing windows, etc. etc...)

If everyone were to do the same (not that I'm insisting that they SHOULD, I'm just giving a hypothesis), then society as a whole whould begin to witness a phase shift...

- In simpler forms... Being resourceful, I've firgued out that I can use egg cartons & toilet paper rolls to use as "peat pots" for starter seedlings... So I say "sorry" to the PEAT POT industry (if everyone did that, they'd go out of business... The next obvious step would be to build a chicken coop (which means that the egg cartons would not be available and you'd have to find another substitution)...

- Packaging is a WONDERFUL resource... People throw away a lot of useful packaging... From glass jars, down to the plastic "netting" that either comes from the bulk onions one buys at the store, to those shower pads that people use to soap up... Anout 90% of hygeine products (from shampoos, to soaps, are a waste of money)... There are easy to make substitutes...

- Most fast food, restaurant food, and brand names are easily made at home as well... Anything from an egg mcmuffin to a snickers bar...

Even if the Fed stops buying bonds at its January 26 meeting, as it should, it may take years or even decades for the Fed’s existing multi-trillion dollar bond portfolio to mature and burn off. The Fed’s large bond holdings distort prices, expose the Fed (and the taxpayer) to interest rate risk, and create a conflict of interest for the Fed in setting interest rates (since rate hikes will hammer the Fed’s bond portfolio.)

CV, my nephew and his wife have two hens.. if i can just get it together here with my other projects.. I just found out at thanksgiving.. What he described was completely doable and even fun! They are sweet hens.. RI Reds, i believe. They just have to be in during coyote hours..

"The Fed’s large bond holdings distort prices, expose the Fed (and the taxpayer) to interest rate risk, and create a conflict of interest for the Fed in setting interest rates (since rate hikes will hammer the Fed’s bond portfolio.)"

---

See - I HATE this logic... Why? Because it naturally pre-supposes that the ONLY money supply than can or ever will be, comes from the Fed...

I say F*** the Fed... Let them put the entire solar system on their balance sheet if they wish...

Then?

Take away their charter...

Last I checked, Bernanke may have a helicopter, but he doesn't have nukes, tanks, or a standing army...

I know I'm talking about swatting at a hornets nest here, but I really believe that thinking in THOSE TERMS is the only realistic solution there is...

As it stands now... There will NEVER be any solution (so long as politicians act as little 'Judases' collecting their 30 pieces of silver from the banking cartels)...

But Bruce! how would you sext?! LOL.. actually, i have such an aversion to talking on phones that if I ever pick up when someone phones me, they gasp and exclaim, "I cannot believe you answered the phone!" (That happened twice this year already.) Mostly I listen to the message and text back. Nearly without exception, if I am in a hotel room and need help, I will walk down and speak to the lobby receptionist vs. picking up the phone.

There are numerous resources on the internet on DIY chicken coops... Lots of them are for free... OR - If you don't have the time or aren't handy, there are a lot of "pre-fab" kits...

Most have been adapted for urban use...

Most of that issue needs to be taken up with your homeowners association as to whether they'll allow something like livestock on your property...

I kind of laugh at that last notion (because I believe "necessity" will dictate that in the future)...

Anyway... You're right... ANIMALS (coyotes & hawks in your case), are the thing to protect... But that's a normal thing to deal with and that's what "chicken wire" is for... Most houses and runs are protected... And the NEXT step is to place simple electric wire around the outside perimeter of the coop & run...

I had to do that with my YARD (in Italy), otherwise the wild boar would wander in from the woods and tear up my entire lawn... You can't imagine what damage they do...

As of now I am inclined to take THE UNDER on this number. Some of the short-term retail hiring that was counted in ADP may not be included in the NFP number. But I don't think this will be a massive miss - maybe between 100k and 150k. The really interesting numbers to watch will be the Jan and Feb NFP numbers b/c those will reflect the wave of local and state government layoffs, and there are still jobs being lost elsewhere as well, incredible though that may sound. 400k a week initial claims.

Trading wise I am sitting on my hands. The widow maker has been restores to the scabbard, and I am getting ready to simply fade any large moves in anything, either today or tomorrow. What we might see develop today is a push upwards in stocks, and if a short squeeze gets going at the end of the day I might decide to fade that. The small caps or the retailers would probably be the best play. You can see weakness all over the retail sales numbers. Of course it was "the weather", not "the economy" or "the bankrupt consumer".

Likewise I would probably fade any excessive enthusiasm for TLT that develops today or tomorrow, as there is some upside risk in jobs and we have long bond auctions next week. I am pegging the middle of next week as the pivot for yields for the time being, and I will be buying Ts if we see a surge to the 4.6-4.8% range in the 30y.

Today is a good day to just sit back and watch. If we get another surge in emerging markets, then shorting FXI or EEM looks attractive. China sometimes likes to say stuff on Friday to cool down their hot money inflows. If nothing much happens, we will just wait until tomorrow.

As a wise man once said:

1) "If you don't know what to do, don't do it"2) "Don't just do something, sit there"3) "Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make"

But I like the foto... When you search around and see fotos of varying chicken coop configurations, you understand that they're ALL put together with the thought of PROTECTION against coyotes or other wild animals in mind...

The "over" would be + 250k. Treasuries would be slaughtered, and would become a nailed-on buy over the next week or so. I can see your logic.

BTW, Andy Xie calls for Treasuries over 6% and I think that is a complete mis-read. We will go the Japan route. If we were to approach a DEATH of TREASURIES moment, the BEN BERNANK will find a way to crash the equity market by talking about reverse repos, and POTUS will go on TV to encourage saving by buying Ts.

In this way, any time it looks like we are losing the bond market, we will see the DEATH OF TREASURIES turn into a DEARTH OF TREASURIES. We will not, in fact, have a normal economic recovery in this cycle for one reason - because we CAN'T AFFORD THE INTEREST ON THE DEBT if rates rise. This is the paradox of QE/ZIRP, exacerbated by structural deficits.

The other reason Andy Xie is wrong, of course, is that ten squillion US homeowners would be underwater if we got up above 6% on a 30y mortgage, TBTF banks would need another BAIROUT (ROR) and Timmay and the Bernank would be completely unable to sell in their lifetimes.

This is so not going to happen, even though I would love it as PLOPERTY PLICES would PRUMMET in a Tokyo/Osaka style. ROR.

Yeah... you could expand the "run" area... The foto was more of a PEN than a run...

UNPROTECTED - as long as someone was around, free ranging would be fine (tho I'd pretty much guarantee that eventually you'd be faced with a challenge...

SEMI-PROTECTION could be a run "tunnel" (kind of like an outdoor HABITRAIL but made with chicken wire instead of plastic...

or

just a large protected 'batting cage' type strucure (but then you'd be conpromising some of your landscaping)... Best thig there would be to plan for harmony... It's not that hard to camoflage netting in greenery so as to hardly know it's there...

Didn't you know? That's so you can hitch it to your Porsche Cabriolet and take your chickens with you on camping trips, or to the beach!

jk :-)

Actually - Mobility (in small farming) is an oft used tactic...

It's more important with other livestock (like pis, goats, or dairy cows)... But the idea is to rotate your pens... Mostly because the animals will trample and fertilize the soil, keeping it nutrient rich... When they are rotated out, feeder crops (like winter rye) are grown, then the animals are moved back in... You don't need a tractor for a small plot of land if you have a few pigs...

I am a survivor of the Japanese bear market. Twelve (or twenty - depending on your school of thought) long years of it. Call it "Financial Gitmo". The lessons of this incarceration were varied, and the experience invaluable - indelibly etched upon my brain for ease of retrieval when required in the future. Like now. One such lesson was that once the initial violent trauma of the market waterboarding dissipated, the mind-fucking treachery and psychologically-painful water-torture begins.

HighlightsNearly every chain reports slower sales in December, a slowing that is best described as moderate. Year-on-year total sales moved down to the positive mid-single digits from the mid- to high-single digits. Only a few blamed the weather for the slowing with most blaming tough competition and the strong sales of November that depleted holiday demand. Due to the sales slowdown and the necessity to increase markdowns, a run of chains cut January fourth-quarter earnings guidance in what is a telling sign of disappointment. Today's reports point squarely to a break in strength for the government's ex-auto ex-gas category.

I reckon that Mssrs Schilling,and Roubini, will in time - once again - more likely be correct in so far as I believe continued recession and mild deflation will predominate longer than optimists (and inflationists)- and in particularly longs, can bear once the shorts have sufficiently covered and the intermediate term optimism rolls over with the continued bleak news flow. Then, the trend-followers will mechanically bail, and reverse positions, prescient programmes and specs, too, will re-establish their shorts, until finally the squeezed-in will, once again get squeezed-out, and those amongst us with weak constitutions will be forced to hide the pills and sharp objects to avoid .... tragedy.

We still like +130k for tomorrow, not sure what Mr Market will make of that number. The most likely move would be a reversal of the dollar rally (which was a squeeze anyway) and we might see another little commodity run. This is sort of a max pain for where everyone is set up now.

I just want to look past this week, my eyes are on the PPI next Wednesday and the auctions in 10y and 30y. No need to play invisible catalysts, just key off the reaction to the news.

We will also be well into the beginnings of Q4 earnings season at this point. This looks to us like the most obvious place for a spot of dumping for equities, as we should have reached higher rates at that point.

"This lot might well spur additional selling in the post Op EX week.Nothing about home sales is ever good in Jan, and GDP will disappoint."

The SOTU address is on January 25th...

I don't think the "teleprompter in chief" will be very happy to see red days on the DJIA while he's reading how wonderful and effective he has been off of cue cards, with "Boner" standing behind him, and a lot less "standing ovations" in front of him...

I was thinking Case-Shiller would be the U-Boat sighting and a WTE durables and pending homes followed by luke-warm GDP the torpedos, with another depth charge from the WTE Feb jobs numbers the week after.

Really and truly I think that once rates rise to the point where TLT becomes irresistible we will have a much improved chance of a sizeable risk-off move. We are watching spreads like a hawk and getting very close to trimming our junk. So to speak.

William Dudley, the head of the New York Fed, seems to have his own rules about talking to people during the blackout period.Dudley's office recently released his daily work schedule for the past two years. That schedule shows Dudley isn't shy about talking during those blackout periods with people on Wall Street who might benefit from his knowledge.Take March 11, 2009, for example. The blackout period ran from March 10-18. I know this because those dates are written in capital letters -- PRE-FOMC BLACKOUT PERIOD -- right at the top of Dudley's calendar for that day, a reminder, I guess, from his assistant.

"the $wlsh (which tagged a new high today) is almost 1000 pts higher than it was in 2006.. when the economy was running overtime"

Liquidity is the most effective driver of P/E expansion. Interesting phenomenon, isn't it? Now a few reverse repos and those banknotes will have to go back into BB's arse...

Anyone following the spikes in SHIBOR? There is absolutely no reason why we cannot see a banking crisis in China, in an economy that is rife with hot money, leverage and fraud. With housing units at 100 x average earnings, what could possibly go wrong?

from the above: "As Anat Admati of Stanford University and her colleagues tirelessly point out, the central vulnerability in our modern financial system is excessive reliance on borrowed money, particularly by the biggest players.

Goldman Sachs is a perfect example. Most of its operations could be funded with equity – after all, it is not in the retail deposit business. But issuing debt is attractive to shareholders because of the subsidies associated with debt financing for banks and to bank executives because their compensation is based on return on equity — as measured, that increases with leverage.

If banks have more debt relative to equity, this increases the potential upside for investors. It also increases the probability that the firm could fail — unless you believe, as the market does, that Goldman is too big to fail."

It is really important to look at the data, after all. How many families lost children because of an emotional belief that "vaccines cause autism"?

Autism is an interesting entity. Increased diagnosis probably underlies the apparent increase, although I have read suggestions that it is caused by inter-breeeding among people who are good at math... LOL. Why does society loathe the computationally talented so deeply?

You can also look at some psychiatric "diagnoses" such as Asperger's as being simply "biological variants" or "societal outliers". After all, who is to say that it is biologically normal or societally useful for everyone to emote constantly and act out aggressively as though they are on American Idol, Housewives or Jersey Shore. If you are an Iowa farmer, this behavior doesn't impress the cows and chickens so isn't very productive. Do Iowa farmers all have Asperger's? Somehow I doubt it.

"...Only $1 Billion Per Year, Even if It's GrowingEven if the annual rare earth market swells to the expected $2 billion to $3 billion by 2014, that's still only 1% of the total iron market. While there's good money to be made in the industry, there are a lot of miners chasing a relatively small market, shelling out hundreds of millions just to get new mines up and running. The math may not make sense - or much money - for a great number of them.

Take Avalon Rare Metals (AMEX:AVL) for instance. The company says it may need nearly C$1 billion to fully tap its Northwest Territories project. There's a proverbial boatload of rare earth metals there to be sure, but is a billion bucks worth? That's what the whole annual market is worth right now, and it's not getting that much bigger that fast.

The Bottom LineKeep the rare earth metals mania in perspective. While rare earths do hold an important place in the economy, there are currently a lot of companies vying for a relatively small segment of the mining industry. This is compounded by the fact that developing rare earth mines is costly. So, when it comes right down to it, how much profit do you think rare earths will yield for the investors who are currenlty clamoring to buy in?..."http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Rare-Earths-Are-They-Worth-The-Hype-REE-AVL-LYSDY-GWMGF-MCP0105.aspx?partner=YahooSA

Double top in C. Probably the bellwether for TBTF banks.We are getting closer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=C:US

If you think about how the Ponzi is being done, the banks sold their Ts in November and bought equities and high yield debt in each other. Once it becomes more profitable to hold Ts this process will be reversed. It also would not be a surprise if Timmy sold some more here or if C issued new shares here at ~ $5.

Re: Volcker out of the administration. This has been a long time coming and he really hasn't been involved all that much recently, but for me, just shows that they brought him in as a reputation for the media and no more. Sad times.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Stater Bros. has seen prices for cereal rise some five percent — but it’s only been able to pass about half of that increase to its consumers.

Other grocers are simply struggling to get buyers in the door. Competition has led to lower food prices while food costs have skyrocketed. And commodity prices are likely to skyrocket further on Fed policy.

For stores like Supervalu (SVU), the situation is dire. Its prices are higher than its competitors'. Customers aren’t coming in great volume. And its costs for food are understandably rising.

There’s no way the company can produce good number with food prices still on the rise...

Whole Foods (WFMI) is another franchise that could suffer — not just on analyst rating cuts; but also on higher food costs and falling profit margins from competition.

Even The Fresh Market (TFM) could take a hit, as traders are generally pessimistic on the natural foods grocer.

It would seem hopes for stronger grocery store earnings have been dashed.

As long as these companies can’t raise prices to offset higher prices, the bottom line suffers... And the stocks could come down even more.

This writer describes the Rodgers-Vick QB matchup (Packers-Eagles) as being great because it features Rodgers against the NFL "feel good" story (Michael Dog Killer Vick)...

Yeah - It really makes me feel good that a guy who used to spend his time financing and participating in a ring that murdered and tortured dogs is now a hotshot in the NFL (and gets calls from the President)...

AAIP (8:45) - Originally I am from farm country, I can dig my own well (without tapping into the city mane) know how to grow my own food and build my own shelter. If a true economic collapse happened, I may have gone hungry, cold and without, but I never feared of starving, freezing to death or not being able to fend for myself.

Two years ago, I moved to “The big city” and it quickly donned on me that if things completely collapsed, (although I feel fairly confident about obtaining water) I would not be able to grow my own food, my options for shelter would be nearly impossible and I would have compete with 10x the population in 1-10th the area.

There is a big difference between Stores and Storing.

Most people rely on the grocery store, when they go to buy a bag of chips they may get mad because their favorite chip isn’t there, but they never worry about being able to get a bag, cuz the store always has them. It seems most people do not realize stores are always re-stocking the shelves and if trucks don’t roll, their chips aren’t on the shelf.

Now that I am over here, it surprises me how unprepared I am and in the event of a all out collapse there is little chance I will be able can get as prepared as need be. Now I do not believe we will see full scale collapse, but it would be foolish not to prepare and most people aren’t and wont be ready even if the could.

Let’s take Cvienne for example, he is prepared and I believe he will survive fairly comfortable for the first three months, but even in the best case scenario, it will take him at least nine months to become fully self sufficient. (Planting, tending, harvesting and storing) No matter how well prepared he is he will probably go hungry from time to time and will certainly go without, but he is in no fear of starving.

If there is an all out collapse most people in this country would be lucky to survive three weeks, before they start to starve and have no hope of make it nine months.

"he is prepared and I believe he will survive fairly comfortable for the first three months, but even in the best case scenario, it will take him at least nine months to become fully self sufficient. (Planting, tending, harvesting and storing)"

Your statement is in error...

I'm already in my 3rd year of the "harvest" being able to self sustain a winter...

The EXTRA items consumed are just that... EXTRAS...

I'm also highly insured against drought conditions... Fertilizer needs are handled by fish these days...

The only REAL threat anymore would be in a NUCLEAR WINTER type scenario (where 'sunlight' would be blocked out)...

There's no getting around that, because even if you switched to artificial grow lighting for a period, your ability to re-generate that would be hampered because the solar panels wouldn't charge... I have wind turbines, but I'd need an area that had a more constant & consistent wind... Like midwest plains, or islands, or something...

Because of QE and hot money flows, there is more immediate chance of people starving in the developing world than here. The situation in India is approaching crisis levels and China has big problems.

People need to read about Japan. Nobody starved, although the price of noodles inched up in real terms. Lots less sashimi, lots more top ramen. But hardship and going without were within generational memory for the Japanese and many Japanese are buddhist.

We have plenty of food in this country, the enemy as you point out is widespread civic disorder. If the cities did eventually blow up, then just as happened in the 60s, people in the countryside would go about their business as though nothing had happened, with local produce sustaining the population in the absence of expensive imports.

The rich would set up armed fortresses in the cities and hire militias to defend themselves. The suburbs would be the worst places to be. No easy access to food and the danger of roaming bands of city dwellers.

Pick a small farming town in the far north and memorize the route, and keep the gas tank filled. Just in case.

Whatever the government reports about unemployment on Friday, Gallup's U.S. underemployment data for the end of 2010 show that nearly one in five Americans continue to be unemployed or employed part-time looking for full-time work. In turn, this underscores the importance of job creation as a top national priority.

MM is underestimating the ability of agricultural communities to form local co-operatives for the benefit of producers and consumers alike and achieve self-sustainability in the absence of the twin heavy hands of corporate fascism and governmental regulation.

Many parts of the USA have been doing this since 1778, I understand. A visit to Amish country might be instructive. The necessity for financial intermediaries and conduits has been greatly overstated. The rentier class is completely superfluous in the absence of serviceable debt structures. When the Amish raise a barn, they don't need a mortgage from Wank of America, securitized by Golden Sacks. They just need two dozen strong men with a hammer and some nails.

Cvienne - Then except for the completely unexpected it sounds like you are very well prepared.

And I did not mean the 3 month as an insult only meant it as saying as prepared as you are there will (Or at least I thought) be a lag between stored supplies vs becoming self sustained.

In the worste case most people will not be able to last 3 days, let alone 3 weeks and few will make it nine months. And I agree with anon at 2:56 there are already those who are prepared just by the nature of their life style, while the vast horde would have no clue.

And BTW - "Pick a small farming town in the far north and memorize the route, and keep the gas tank filled. Just in case."

Aside from the store of food I keep on hand (Rice and Beans,No Chinese Beef stir fry) Getting back to that area is my number one plan. IF I can make it.

(AP:ALGIERS, Algeria) Riots over rising food prices and chronic unemployment spiraled out from Algeria's capital on Thursday, with youths torching government buildings and shouting "Bring us Sugar!"

Police helicopters circled over Algiers, and stores closed early. Security officers blocked off streets in the tense working-class neighborhood of Bab el-Oued, near the capital's ancient Casbah, and areas outside the city were swept up in the rampages.

The U.S. Embassy issued a warning to Americans in Algeria to "remain vigilant" and avoid crowds.

Riots on Wednesday night in the neighborhood saw a police station, a Renault car dealership and other buildings set ablaze. Police with tear gas fired back at stone-throwing youths through the night.

Wednesday's violence started after evening Muslim prayers. It came after price hikes for milk, sugar and flour in recent days, and amid simmering frustration that Algeria's abundant gas-and-oil resources have not translated into broader prosperity.

Youths resumed their outbursts Thursday afternoon.

Violence erupted across town in the El Harrach neighborhood, where youths set tires on fire and threw stones at police. Some officers were seen rounding up suspected troublemakers.

In the suburb of Rouiba, youths set fire to tires and danced around them, chanting "Bring us sugar!" Others tore down street signs and smashed streetlights with iron bars. In the suburb of Bordj El Bahri east of Algiers, rioters set fire to a post office. In nearby Dergana, youths set a town hall alight...http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68975742726582

(AP:PASADENA, Calif.) Personal finance expert Suze Orman is getting her own prime-time show on Oprah Winfrey's new OWN network.

Orman's new series "Money Class" will debut in the fall. Orman will visit individuals and families across the country to give them advice on their own financial circumstances.

Winfrey said Thursday that Orman's show will give people who need it a "financial wake-up call."

The network debuted on Jan. 1 and had some strong initial ratings from people interested in checking it out. She was scheduled to talk to reporters later Thursday in California about OWN's start.http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897574275581

Wheat for March delivery fell 19.25 cents to $7.89 a bushel; March corn fell 17.25 cents to $6.02 a bushel; March oats fell 11.50 cents to $3.7775 a bushel; while soybeans for March delivery dropped 15.50 cents to $13.78 a bushel.

Beef and pork were either up or unchanged on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

February live cattle added 0.10 cent to $1.0672 a pound; March feeder cattle gained 67 cent at $1.2307 a pound; February lean hogs added 1.75 cent to 79.77 cents a pound; while February pork bellies were unchanged at $1.06 a pound.~~expensive Meats, it's been a Trend..

Looks like the folks who needed to sell, got to sell, and the big boys got the bid they wanted at the lows without letting anyone else in.

My max upside target calls for another 600 dow pts before next major pivot. Could come as soon as the 20th... (yes, thats 600 dow pts I said... sounds crazy at first, but take a peek yourself.)

Todays YM high touched off the same gann angle off the feb '10 lows that we tagged at the Nov high...

Something tells me it aint gonna mark a top this time around the wheel.

(We've been holding an important gann angle off the July lows, since Dec 1st.)

Stay nimble my friends... remember what Neely said months ago... we need good news to convince the herd all is safe, now we're starting to get it, and the volume hasnt even come in on the buy side yet...

If we get a scare on whatever between now and the 20th, watch 10,500... but that support is rising.

Indeed, there is still the potential for one big fake jobs report to scare every last JOHN E out of low yielding bonds of all descriptions and into high yield and equities. 50 or 60 spooz are certainly possible and there is room for another 35 to 50 bps on the TNX. As of now there are plenty of dividend paying non-commodity stocks that are undervalued while zillions of tech and mining stocks are massively overvalued.

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