Kevin Duffy: Gauging this UConn team as difficult as ever

Updated 12:15 am, Tuesday, August 27, 2013

STORRS -- You probably know one guy who thinks UConn football will be pretty good this year. Like 8-4 good.

You probably know another who thinks the Huskies will go 5-7.

You know what I think?

Due to the state of realignment and the massive role football plays in determining a school's long-term league affiliation, I think the stakes this fall are unprecedented.

And I think the expectations are quite familiar.

What's true this preseason has been true for the past decade: Either of your friends could be right. UConn could go 8-4 or it could hit 5-7 for a third straight year. The margin for error, as always, is tiny.

Since UConn joined the now-defunct Big East, I count zero squads that were preseason locks to flourish (I define that as eight or more wins). I count only three that were preseason locks to flounder: the 2005 squad quarterbacked by Matt Bonislawski, the D.J. Hernandez/Bonislawski tandem of 2006 and the 2011 unit led by Johnny McEntee.

The others have been difficult to gauge.

In 2007, the Huskies were pegged second-to-last in the preseason Big East media poll. They finished tied for first.

In 2010, they were ranked in the top 25 by Athlon Magazine. They promptly began the year 3-4 before reeling off five straight to earn a spot in the Fiesta Bowl.

Come 2012, UConn was ranked low again, but considered a dark horse by experts. The Huskies finished 5-7, pulling off a stunner at Louisville and dropping a gimme against Temple.

None of those UConn teams was terrible. None was prolific, either. Some grinded out wins, emerging as legitimate sleepers; others lost a handful of snoozers. And so has been the story of one of the country's most average football programs.

Which brings us to this year. Paul Pasqualoni spent the better part of Sunday's press conference discussing what he likes, which, par-for-the-preseason course, was pretty much everything.

The passing game: "I think (the receivers) are very capable and I think Chandler (Whitmer) is capable of getting them the ball," Pasqualoni said. "They're fast, explosive kind of guys. They're zero-to-60 fast."

The offensive line: "My evaluation is that I think they've really improved."

The uniforms: "I like them. I think the kids really like them. I think we like the new logo very, very much. It's proven to be very popular and very identifiable."

This year's group, wearing sleek new unis and facing the same old uncertainty, does in fact have the makings of a sleeper. The Huskies return nine offensive starters, including a second-year quarterback who seemed just fine when he received any semblance of pass protection. All indication is that the offense will be better because, well, it can't get much worse.

"I've seen a lot of improvement," Whitmer said. "We're flying around, there's a lot of energy and we're executing things."

All indication is that the defense, top 20 nationally a year ago, should be solid again.

"They're reloading," Whitmer said. "They're stout up front. The secondary has really filled in for the two corners we lost and, obviously, with Yawin (Smallwood) in the middle, they look good on all levels."

By Thursday, we'll have a better idea. Yes, the Huskies open with Towson, an FCS opponent, but if we rewind to the 2012 opener versus UMass, you'll remember three themes: UConn's speed on defense overwhelmed the Minutemen. Strangely, UConn had difficulty creating space for Lyle McCombs, who carried 23 times for just 86 yards. And Whitmer was careless with the ball, tossing a first-quarter interception on the sidelines while attempting to throw it away.

As fall turned to winter, those traits stuck. UConn's dynamic defense kept it afloat, and a combination of poor blocking and poor decision-making sunk a perfectly capable squad to a 5-7 record. Just as easily, UConn could have been 7-5.

"What I'm pushing for is consistency and not turning the ball over and not giving up a play," Pasqualoni said. "That's cost us now more than half-a-dozen games in two years."

Look at the past UConn squads, the ones with average talent -- like this one -- that have posted above-average records.

During that remarkable five-game win streak to close the 2010 regular season, the Huskies forced 17 turnovers and committed just five.

During a three-game losing streak in 2009, UConn was on the wrong end of an 8-to-2 turnover discrepancy. The Huskies won their last four games, however, forcing seven turnovers while coughing up three.

In the breakthrough season of 2007, UConn ranked seventh-nationally in turnover margin (plus-14).

Last year, the Huskies were minus-14.

"Every year is a new year and every team has its own identity," Pasqualoni said. --¦I'm hopeful that the personality and identity of this team is one that takes care of the ball."

To be sure, this team won't overwhelm opponents athletically. That's not the identity at UConn. Never has been.

This is, by major college football standards, an average roster, a group with little room for error. Yet, it's a group that has shown brief flashes.

"You know, two years ago, we lined up and beat the heck out of Rutgers and beat the heck out of Syracuse," Pasqualoni said. "Last year, we were at Louisville and, to be honest with you, that's a good football game. "Louisville lined up and beat the heck out of who in the bowl game?"