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Re: 2012 NL MVP

I can't believe we have a 25 year old RFer who is 2nd in the league in HRs and RBIs and in the top 10 on OPS and we spent the majority of the year arguing about his worth as a player, and some people still are doubting him.

If Bruce continues to hit and finishes near the top in HRs/RBIs and his OPS is in the .900s he will absolutely be a serious contender for MVP when you consider how the Reds played sans Votto. Especially when you consider he is has a .960 OPS post ASG which was right around the time Votto died.

Last edited by reds44; 09-06-2012 at 02:29 AM.

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by reds44

I can't believe we have a 25 year old RFer who is 2nd in the league in HRs and RBIs and in the top 10 on OPS and we spent the majority of the year arguing about his worth as a player, and some people still are doubting him.

It seems to me you've been spending more time responding to fictional arguments about Bruce than others have been criticizing him.

People think he's a guy that can do exceptional things. He's been very good but he hasn't been exceptional. There's no harm in hoping for that and being frustrated if it doesn't happen. That doesn't mean they don't appreciate what he is doing if the 'potential' never materializes.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by Brutus

It seems to me you've been spending more time responding to fictional arguments about Bruce than others have been criticizing him.

People think he's a guy that can do exceptional things. He's been very good but he hasn't been exceptional. There's no harm in hoping for that and being frustrated if it doesn't happen. That doesn't mean they don't appreciate what he is doing if the 'potential' never materializes.

Somebody in the top 10 in the league in OPS and 2nd in HRs/RBIs isn't exceptional? Tough crowd. He's been exceptional this year. No matter how "streaky" people say he is.

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by reds44

Somebody in the top 10 in the league in OPS and 2nd in HRs/RBIs isn't exceptional? Tough crowd. He's been exceptional this year. No matter how "streaky" people say he is.

He has a career .820 OPS (115 OPS+). No, I don't consider that exceptional. Joey Votto has a career 155 OPS+. I consider THAT exceptional. I just have a little higher standard for my superlatives. Yeah you're trumpeting his OPS in the middle of one of his torrid streaks. But what about in two weeks from now if he's cooled back to .860? Again, that's a good player and he's definitely above-average and worth the money he's being paid. But that's not historical. That's not exceptional. That's a good player worth the money being paid.

I think he's a very good player. I don't think he's an exceptional player. Again, exceptional is a strong term. That is reserved for truly elite players. "Not typical," says the definition. I don't find an .820 OPS atypical. It's found among dozens of players every season. There are 47 qualified players above .820 this season, which is Bruce's career average. Do I think there are at least 47-50 exceptional players in the league? Nope.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by Brutus

I'm not changing goal posts. I'm changing analogies. I have remained completely constant in my point: pointing out an isolated example is not a trend. You have absolutely no evidence of the criteria changing one bit. You pointed out a single player in 2010 winning a separate award. Not only is that an outlier, but it's an outlier for a completely different award. Yet it's me changing the goal posts? Stick to the same award. You're grasping at straws using one example from 2010 for a completely different award. I am beginning to wonder if you're even familiar with the term outlier.

Did you happen to catch Dave Cameron's chat yesterday? He said the same thing... Braun might not even finish in the top 10 of the award. Not only do voters not like giving the award to players on bad teams but Braun's situation gives them extra incentive not to vote for him.

So probability isn't my thing and I don't know what "outlier" means. Interesting. On that note, I'm beginning to wonder if you're familiar with what the term "supercilious" means.

I asked you a simple question the other day, one in which you didn't answer. Are the voters for the MVP the same as the Cy Young? If you don't see the importance in me asking that original question, the conversation isn't worth having.

This particular occurrence with Felix was very recent. Concluding the guard hasn't changed based on 1 additional year of awards isn't as conclusive as you're claiming it to be. It will take additional time for things to play out conclusively. Sabermetrics weren't as popular even 5 years ago as they are now.

I didn't catch Cameron's chat, and he may be right. However, if Braun doesn't win, we'll never know for certain if it was because he played for a bad team or the cloud above him from his failed test.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by reds44

I can't believe we have a 25 year old RFer who is 2nd in the league in HRs and RBIs and in the top 10 on OPS and we spent the majority of the year arguing about his worth as a player, and some people still are doubting him.

We may have argued at certain points because until mid August, this was looking like a third consecutive year of low 800's OPS out of a guy that should theoretically be improving. I'm glad to see him tearing the cover off the ball and I hope he keeps going and wins the MVP award, but is it really that hard to believe people weren't elated when he entered August with a .247 batting average?

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Somebody in the top 10 in the league in OPS and 2nd in HRs/RBIs isn't exceptional? Tough crowd. He's been exceptional this year. No matter how "streaky" people say he is.

From what I see, Bruce is 14th in OPS. Number 13 is Aaron Hill. Number 15 is David Freese.

Giving extra credit for HRs doesn't really make sense. If you're looking at OPS, you'are already counting HRs. No need to do so again.

If we want to go old school and add RBI to the conversation, his 91 leaves him behind Ryan Braun, Chase Headley and Matt Holliday -- and just ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Adam LaRoche.

This doesn't touch defense. Bruce may be a talented defender, but the stats we do have suggest he hasn't had a great year. And even if he's been a good defensive RF, he's still just a RF compared to guys who are putting up comparable offensive production from CF, C, 3B, 2B.

Jay Bruce is having a solid year. But he's not having an exceptional one, largely because his low average is keeping his OBP in the mediocre range and he plays an "easy" defensive position. If we use criteria that takes us beyond the traditionally sexy HR/RBI and maybe some narrative about carrying the team in Votto's absense (but go make that case to Ludwick, Frazier, Cueto, Latos and Chapman), the list of guys who should be in the MVP conversation is 20+ guys long and Bruce is toward the back of that list.

I'm not complaining about that, but we shouldn't confuse solid/above average with exceptional.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by reds44

I can't believe we have a 25 year old RFer who is 2nd in the league in HRs and RBIs and in the top 10 on OPS and we spent the majority of the year arguing about his worth as a player, and some people still are doubting him.

If Bruce continues to hit and finishes near the top in HRs/RBIs and his OPS is in the .900s he will absolutely be a serious contender for MVP when you consider how the Reds played sans Votto. Especially when you consider he is has a .960 OPS post ASG which was right around the time Votto died.

I think Jay's recent play would count more in the voters eyes of the Reds were actually in a tight race right now. Their lead is likely going to be held against him.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Re: 2012 NL MVP

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

I don't get the quotes around streaky?

I can't believe I'm going to wade into this ridiculous argument, but...yeah, he's not been streaky since the all star break. Or rather, a better way to put it is he's raised his, what I like to call, "floor of consistency." That is, he may have a game or two where he's off, but it isn't the month-long disappearing acts we're used to. His baseline production is way above where it's been in his career up to the last few months.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)

Re: 2012 NL MVP

From what I see, Bruce is 14th in OPS. Number 13 is Aaron Hill. Number 15 is David Freese.

If we want to go old school and add RBI to the conversation, his 91 leaves him behind Ryan Braun, Chase Headley and Matt Holliday -- and just ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Adam LaRoche.

I'm not sure what list you are looking at but your stats are out of date. Bruce is # 9 in OPS. 3rd in RBI's, and the two guys ahead of hom (Braun and Headley) have zero chance of winning the MVP.

If Bruce gets and keeps his OPS above .900 and leads the league in RBI's, he could win the MVP. Especially since his reputation is of an elite defensive player. Which likely trumps the "new" fielding stats which suggest otherwise.

The Reds are an elite team in the NL this season, even though their elite player went down. If Bruce continues to do what he has been doing ( an big "if" I agree), the most likely competition is McClutch, but while he's playing for another "feel good" team, he and his team have fallen off the map again.

BTW, I'm not suggesting that Bruce is the actual MVP of the league. But I'm looking at what voters have tended to prefer in the past, and a rejuneated Bruce fits that bill to a T.

(1) On a contender, if not playoff team-check in spades.

(2) High on the list of MVP stats, such as RBI's- check in spades ( I'm assuming here Bruce leads the league or is close).

(3) Carried his team down the stretch-check in spades (again my assumption was a good September).

(4) Intangibles. Bruce is considered an elite defensive GG type player and will have carried a team void of the best hitter in the game into the playoffs-check in spades.

I don't see anyone else with that type of story to tell in the NL.

BTW, my current personal choice is Molina of the Cards. IMO, he's been the most valuable player to any of the current contenders.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

I started this thread as hopeful/wishful thinking. Like: wouldn't it be great if JB gets super hot and finishes strong and ends up with a shot at MVP. The way he's going now, wow, if he continues, absolutely he will have a shot.

Bottom line: somebody's got to win it and if JB finishes like he's going now, show me who should get it over him.

Top candidates: McCutchen, Holliday, Posey, Braun. None of those have significantly distinguished themselves above JB--especially if he keeps doing what he's doing.

Re: 2012 NL MVP

So probability isn't my thing and I don't know what "outlier" means. Interesting. On that note, I'm beginning to wonder if you're familiar with what the term "supercilious" means.

I asked you a simple question the other day, one in which you didn't answer. Are the voters for the MVP the same as the Cy Young? If you don't see the importance in me asking that original question, the conversation isn't worth having.

This particular occurrence with Felix was very recent. Concluding the guard hasn't changed based on 1 additional year of awards isn't as conclusive as you're claiming it to be. It will take additional time for things to play out conclusively. Sabermetrics weren't as popular even 5 years ago as they are now.

I didn't catch Cameron's chat, and he may be right. However, if Braun doesn't win, we'll never know for certain if it was because he played for a bad team or the cloud above him from his failed test.

I didn't answer your question because it isn't relevant. The award is based on different criteria than the Cy Young and it's comprised of almost exclusively different candidates, typically.

It's like asking to compare a congressional race to a presidential race despite having totally different candidates, different age/term requirements, etc.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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