The Fed will not cut

Below is the inside scoop according to famed Washington insider Robert Novak (It remains to be seen whether his sources are reliable). At the bottom is a link to an article from the Telegraph quoting Morgan Stanley’s economic team suggesting the Fed and the ECB may be working at cross purposes.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve is about to begin inflation-fighting interest rate increases appears to be dead wrong. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is worried more about runaway oil prices contracting the global economy than inflating it through a wage-cost spiral. According to sources close to him, America’s leading central banker has no plans for a raise.

That conflicts with the recent announcement that the European Central Bank would raise interest rates to combat what it considers to be a tide of inflation presaged by rising food and oil prices. Because the Europeans themselves are divided about what to do, the promised rate hike next month is described as modest — no more than a quarter of a percentage point.

Nevertheless, the prospect of the world’s two most influential central banks going in opposite directions reflects an unusual difference in outlook on the global economy by Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Like the Wizard of Oz, Alan Greenspan and other central bankers were hidden behind a curtain to evoke an aura of omniscience. The curtain has been pulled away; Bernanke and Trichet are seen as mere mortals trying to cope with a complicated and contradictory economic climate.

Bernanke has recently poured out ammunition for Fed-watchers. On June 3, in a speech delivered via satellite to an international monetary conference in Barcelona, he confirmed speculation that inflationary dangers had ended the Fed’s long series of interest rate cuts. Bernanke asserted that current rates probably did not need raising.

But six days later, addressing a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Bernanke took a firmer position in reaction to the soaring price of oil. By promising that the Fed would “strongly resist” inflationary expectations, he generated talk of a rate increase — probably later this year.

Bernanke’s strong language came four days after Trichet’s surprise announcement that the European Central Bank’s governing council, meeting in Frankfurt, had agreed on a rate increase after heated debate. That constituted a major internal victory for anti-inflation hawks in Europe led by Axel Weber, president of the German Bundesbank.

Bernanke, according to sources, disagrees more with the European position than is reflected by his public statements. In his June 3 speech, he said that the jump in oil prices could simultaneously slow already low economic growth while raising inflationary dangers — recalling the “stagflation” of 30 years ago. Privately, Bernanke is said to be much more concerned about low growth.

According to these reports, Bernanke feels that oil at $125 a barrel and $4-a-gallon gasoline threaten contraction more than inflation, despite the daunting prices. The depressing impact on the oil-driven American economy is especially menacing in his view. Bernanke knows that he faces difficult choices that his lionized predecessor never had to confront. Indeed, the traditional tools of the central bank may be inadequate to the task.

There is no question that the low-key Bernanke is calling the shots at the Fed. Lack of control by him was suggested June 5 when Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, and Charles Plosser, chief of the Philadelphia Fed, in separate speeches took issue with the March bailout of Bear Stearns. But regional bank presidents play a minor role in setting monetary policy, and the other Federal Reserve governors go along with their chairman.

Nobody believes the European Central Bank is going to force down oil prices by raising rates. International market adviser David M. Smick (whose book “The World Is Curved” will be published in September) suggests the problem may be “hoarding.” Under this theory, China and developing countries with growing economies are storing up large quantities of fuel to guard against shortages. To a lesser extent, some corporations may be doing the same.

Central banks can do nothing about hoarded oil, though coordinated international activity might be effective. But that possibility seems remote, with Europe and America heading in different directions on the nature of the danger posed by runaway oil.

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.