RB Notes: Denver used their three-headed backfield evenly throughout last week's game. Selvin Young had some red zone touches, but his workload may be diminished after a key fumble. There's no point trying to guess how Mike Shanahan will split the work between Young, P.J. Pope, and Tatum Bell. … This note will soon be out of date, but my sense is that Matt Forte is a safe bet to start against the Packers in a plus matchup. Watch his practice reports. … Some readers have wondered if Deuce McAllister is a sneaky play behind Pierre Thomas. McAllister's knee is not right, so I wouldn't bother with someone who may not get a full workload. … Brandon Jacobs looks like a safe bet to start against the Panthers. In non-PPR leagues, it's over-thinking it to bench The Train. Carolina is a good, not great, rush defense. They will be without their best run plugger Maake Kemoeatu. Play Jacobs as a RB2.

Chris Johnson has not fared well in his most difficult matchups and now he's got the toughest one possible. I'd still give him the edge over backs like LaDainian Tomlinson, Ryan Grant, and Clinton Portis who also have tough matchups, but aren't insanely talented like Johnson. … Michael Turner's difficult matchup is made much easier with Pat Williams' absence. … The Tampa rush defense has not been the same the last two weeks, but they play much better at home. If LaDainian Tomlinson can't run on the Chiefs, there's no reason to think he can against Tampa, no matter how many injuries they have. … Very tough call on Joseph Addai Thursday night. With the Colts likely to rest players next week, I think they will want to get Addai a lot of work in a solid matchup. He's still a RB2, assuming he starts.

It's been an up and down season for Marshawn Lynch, but drafting him should pay off at the right time against Denver. Anyone who watched Lynch break tackle after tackle last week knows they he hasn't given up on this season. … Chicago's rush defense isn't the same as it was early in the year, but the same can be said for Green Bay's offensive line. Ryan Grant is an iffy option. … The Patriots should have the ball in the red zone plenty against the Cardinals, so Sammy Morris should have some scoring opportunities. It's a committee in New England, but Morris is the leader once again. … Tashard Choice and Marion Barber are ranked as if Barber is playing. MBIII will probably be a game-time decision Saturday night, but owners can't trust his toe any longer. Choice would inch up if Barber is out.

LeRon McClain rushed 23 times for 87 yards against Pittsburgh. Look for a similar effort against a stout Dallas rush defense. McClain will definitely have the goal-line snaps, if Baltimore ever gets there. … With Kris Jenkins losing energy and effectiveness by the week, Maurice Morris is a reasonable flex option this week. … Jonathan Stewart has played so well in the red zone, he's likely to continue to get the carries. Yardage is unlikely to be high against the Giants, though, so he's a risky flex play at best. … I'd actually play Cedric Benson over Jamal Lewis, just because I trust the Cincinnati offense more – which is sad. … Move Dominic Rhodes up twenty spots if Joseph Addai is out.

Week 16 Wide Receivers

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Andre Johnson

at OAK

-

2

Calvin Johnson

vs. NO

-

3

Brandon Marshall

vs. BUF

4

Roddy White

at MIN

-

5

Larry Fitzgerald

at NE

-

6

Steve Smith

at NYG

-

7

Antonio Bryant

vs. SD

-

8

Randy Moss

vs. ARZ

-

9

Marques Colston

at DET

-

10

Wes Welker

vs. ARZ

-

11

Reggie Wayne

at JAC

-

12

Greg Jennings

at CHI

-

13

Anquan Boldin

at NE

Highly questionable, ranked in case he starts

14

Lee Evans

at DEN

-

15

Dwayne Bowe

vs. MIA

-

16

Terrell Owens

vs. BAL

-

17

Lance Moore

at DET

-

18

Jerricho Cotchery

at SEA

Probable(shoulder)

19

Eddie Royal

vs. BUF

-

20

Kevin Walter

at OAK

-

21

Bernard Berrian

vs. ATL

-

22

Vincent Jackson

at TB

Probable(concussion)

23

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

at CLE

Probable(hand)

24

Laveranues Coles

at SEA

Questionable(thigh)

25

Steve Breaston

at NE

Move up 4 spots is Boldin is out

26

Anthony Gonzalez

at JAC

-

27

Hines Ward

at TEN

-

28

Deion Branch

vs. NYJ

-

29

Santana Moss

vs. PHI

Probable(concussion)

30

Donald Driver

at CHI

-

31

DeSean Jackson

at WAS

No Curtis could help

32

Davone Bess

at KC

-

33

Isaac Bruce

at STL

-

34

Torry Holt

vs. SF

-

35

Santonio Holmes

at TEN

-

36

Braylon Edwards

vs. CIN

-

37

Devin Hester

vs. GB

-

38

Derrick Mason

at DAL

Probable(shoulder)

39

Chad Ocho Cinco

at CLE

Probable(hamstring)

40

Domenik Hixon

vs. CAR

Questionable(foot)

41

Bryant Johnson

at STL

-

42

Chris Chambers

at TB

-

43

Muhsin Muhammad

at NYG

-

44

Donnie Avery

vs. SF

-

45

Ted Ginn Jr.

at KC

-

46

Justin Gage

vs. PIT

-

47

Amani Toomer

vs. CAR

-

48

Bobby Engram

vs. NYJ

-

49

Brandon Jones

vs. PIT

-

50

Steve Smith

vs. CAR

-

51

Dennis Northcutt

vs. IND

-

52

Roy Williams

vs. BAL

Probable(foot)

53

Mark Clayton

at DAL

-

54

Sidney Rice

vs. ATL

-

55

Josh Reed

at DEN

-

56

Michael Jenkins

at MIN

-

WR Notes:Dan Orlovsky has easily been Calvin Johnson's best quarterback this season. Megatron has averaged 100 yards and a touchdown in his last five starts with Orlovsky. DanO has averaged 253 yards in his last four starts and is a sneaky QB play if you are truly desperate. … Roy E. Williams could be the most overpaid player in the league this side of Jerry Porter. Cris Collinsworth alluded to how truly worthless he looks on tape. … If Anquan Boldin doesn't play, move Steve Breaston into the top-20. Over the last three weeks, he has virtually identical target, reception, and yardage numbers to his famous teammates anyway. There should be plenty of points in this game no matter the weather. … Yes, it's a tough matchup for Steve Smith in the Meadowlands. But he'll beat your ass if you bench him and you'll deserve it. … Jeff Garcia's status shouldn't change Antonio Bryant's value much, as we saw last week. The Chargers remain one of the easiest teams to get big plays against. Their effort level is questionable. … Andre Johnson owners, like Randy Moss and Wes Welker owners last week, don't need to worry about the Nmandi factor because the Texans can just move A.J. around the field.

Lance Moore is still getting his 6-8 targets per week, even if the yards haven't been there lately. Reggie Bush's absence will help him. Don't outsmart yourself and bench him against the Lions. … With Marvin Harrison out, Anthony Gonzalez becomes a very good WR3 option against a poor Jacksonville secondary. … I don't need a huge excuse to get back on the Lee Evans bandwagon. Facing Denver with Trent Edwards back in the lineup is more than enough reason for me. Denver simply could not locate Steve Smith last week, and remain a terrible cover team without Champ Bailey. Their front seven is so light that they have to bring their safety down in the box to stop the running game. … The favorable matchup against the Seahawks gives Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles a chance to end a weak season on a high note. It's a similar matchup to the one against Buffalo last week: small cornerbacks who aren't great tacklers. The Jets WRs had solid games then and should once again. … Bernard Berrian is the definition of a risky WR2, but the Atlanta defense has given up a lot of big plays to speed threats in recent weeks including Antonio Bryant, Steve Smith, and Devery Henderson. They are not a great road defense.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh could take a hit in the rankings if the wind reports in Cleveland stay ugly, but the matchup is certainly right. Despite last week's game, Housh has mostly been consistent despite playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick all year. … On paper, the Titans look like a tough matchup for Hines Ward. In reality, their pass defense has fallen off the last month and their pass rush won't be the same without Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Don't expect a huge game, but it's an easier matchup than Baltimore. He topped 100 yards. … If the Redskins could only score one touchdown against the Bengals, I wouldn't bet on two against the Eagles. This offense is bankrupt. That makes Santana Moss a dicey play. … Deion Branch has 25 targets in the last three weeks. Bobby Engram has 17, Koren Robinson nine. New York's secondary looks worse by the week. The only concern for Branch is that he gets the Darrelle Revis treatment. Eric Mangini knows how dangerous Branch is, at least relative to the other Seattle wideouts. … Davone Bess didn't do anything last week because Miami couldn't pick up a first down in the second half. They didn't need to throw to win. He's still a solid WR3. … Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are respectable WR3 options because of the matchup. … The Packers secondary is no longer that tough a matchup, so Devin Hester is an option. Just not a great one. … Bryant Johnson didn't appear to lose any snaps to Josh Morgan last week. … A mild Donnie Avery revival is not worth betting on for a second straight week.

Rankings were updated Friday evening. Weather is taken into account, although forecasts could change. Brandon Jacobs is fully expected to start. Marion Barber is a game-time decision, but don't expect him to contribute much. A highly respected source says Frank Gore is unlikely to play much Sunday. DeShaun Foster is likely to carry the load. If they are both active, it may be a situation to avoid. We've come this far: See you Sunday morning on The Fantasy Fix (Presented by Absolut Vodka!). Good luck this weekend!

Kevin Smith does not go down easily. Early in Detroit's loss to the Colts, he was handed the ball on a second-and-five. The play was designed to go to the right. Like so many Lions sequences this season, it looked doomed from the start as the Colts blew up the Detroit offensive line. Smith, perhaps used to the mayhem, stopped on a dime, and avoided the penetration by hopping to the weak side. A Colts linebacker was waiting for him there, so Smith quickly cut again inside, then broke for daylight and a 25 improved yards.

Playing for Detroit forces you to improvise. It tests how much you care. In a season of unintentional comedy and despair in Detroit, the Lions have found a leader in their rookie running back.

I expected Smith's 450 carries at Central Florida to catch up to him by mid-season, but the opposite has happened. He's improved despite a difficult schedule, ranking in the top-15 fantasy backs since Week 9. Here's a look at his yards from scrimmage since midseason:

Smith is "desperate" for a win and "jealous" of those players who have them. He tells reporters to "tighten up" when they attempt to get him to criticize the playcalling. He wants a win badly and the Lions have nearly pulled it off against likely playoff teams in successive weeks, Minnesota and Indy. A small prediction: Smith leads the way in a win against New Orleans Sunday and helps decide some fantasy championships along the way. From everyone here at Rotoworld: C'Mon Man!

Is your Fantasy season already over? Check out Rotoworld's new weekly fantasy football game, with cash prizes: Snapdraft. Draft today, find out your league winner next Tuesday. Special Promotion for first time users: Sign up this week and get a free $5 promotional deposit to try out the game.

QB Notes: Let's start with the weather. It will be a bigger factor than last week. As we saw in Kansas City, though, you don't want to overrate it. The Chargers and Chiefs still wound up throwing the ball fairly well in the wind, even if it took a while. The conditions could also change so many games that they may cancel each other out. Kansas City and Cincy look like they will be below freezing and could be very windy, especially the Bengals game. The Patriots, Redskins, Giants and Seahawks home games will all be cold and possibly getting their wintry mix on. Chicago and Denver look to be just plain old bone-chilling cold, which isn't so bad.

Kurt Warner Nation is surprisingly worried about this matchup against the Patriots. Even if Anquan Boldin misses the game and it snows, Warner should have no problems throwing. New England's defense, especially their secondary, can't slow down any decent passing game. No amount of scheme can overcome their lack of talent. Warner will also have to throw plenty to keep up with the Patriots. The reason he's struggled relatively in recent weeks is that defenses are finally getting consistent pressure on him. But New England isn't a great pass rushing team and snowy conditions hurts the pass rush. … While the Lions could win against the Saints, that doesn't mean you buck the odds and bet against any facet of the Saints passing game against the league's worst defense. … Shaun Hill has a perfect matchup and doesn't have to worry about the weather. Even during last week's disappointing effort, the 49ers dominated time of possession and Hill moved the ball. He's a safe bet.

Dallas knows the best way to beat Baltimore will be to throw often. That's no guarantee of a huge day, but if Tony Romo can top 200 yards against the Giants, he can do it against Baltimore. Dallas still has an elite passing game; the matchups have just been brutal. … Donovan McNabb is playing well enough to start in most leagues, but don't expect a huge game against Washington. The Redskins secondary isn't what it was early in the season, but it's still a tough matchup. … Opposing forces collide when Brett Favre takes on the Seahawks. Favre is playing terrible football, but the Seahawks give up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any team. Add it up, and you probably get a 200 yards and 1-2 scores. … Miami's secondary is tougher to beat than it was early in the year, hurting Tyler Thigpen's matchup.

Oakland's respectable defense has fallen apart in recent weeks. That makes Matt Schaub a must-start. … Jay Cutler's game against the Panthers was discouraging, but you still shouldn't bench him. Denver's lack of a running game is allowing defenses to drop a lot of defenders into coverage, forcing Cutler to fit the ball into tight spots. But Denver's offensive line is pass protecting amazingly well, and the Bills just don't have difference makers. The Broncos will create yards. … Tarvaris Jackson's day against the Cardinals was remarkable because the passes he completed were not easy. They were well-covered deep balls that he precisely put on his receivers. Betting on that happening again takes more guts than I have. … Jake Delhomme is averaging 7.6 YPA, which is good for eighth in the league and the most he's had since Carolina's Super Bowl year. He enjoys all that single coverage, but betting on him in the Meadowlands is way too risky. The same goes for Eli Manning, whose receivers couldn't get open against Dallas. No reason to think they will against Carolina. … Tampa's defense is missing some parts, but they still made Matt Ryan look like a rookie again last week. I respect them enough to knock down Philip Rivers a few spots based on the matchup.

RB Notes: Denver used their three-headed backfield evenly throughout last week's game. Selvin Young had some red zone touches, but his workload may be diminished after a key fumble. There's no point trying to guess how Mike Shanahan will split the work between Young, P.J. Pope, and Tatum Bell. … This note will soon be out of date, but my sense is that Matt Forte is a safe bet to start against the Packers in a plus matchup. Watch his practice reports. … Some readers have wondered if Deuce McAllister is a sneaky play behind Pierre Thomas. McAllister's knee is not right, so I wouldn't bother with someone who may not get a full workload. … Brandon Jacobs looks like a safe bet to start against the Panthers. In non-PPR leagues, it's over-thinking it to bench The Train. Carolina is a good, not great, rush defense. They will be without their best run plugger Maake Kemoeatu. Play Jacobs as a RB2.

Chris Johnson has not fared well in his most difficult matchups and now he's got the toughest one possible. I'd still give him the edge over backs like LaDainian Tomlinson, Ryan Grant, and Clinton Portis who also have tough matchups, but aren't insanely talented like Johnson. … Michael Turner's difficult matchup is made much easier with Pat Williams' absence. … The Tampa rush defense has not been the same the last two weeks, but they play much better at home. If LaDainian Tomlinson can't run on the Chiefs, there's no reason to think he can against Tampa, no matter how many injuries they have. … Very tough call on Joseph Addai Thursday night. With the Colts likely to rest players next week, I think they will want to get Addai a lot of work in a solid matchup. He's still a RB2, assuming he starts.

It's been an up and down season for Marshawn Lynch, but drafting him should pay off at the right time against Denver. Anyone who watched Lynch break tackle after tackle last week knows they he hasn't given up on this season. … Chicago's rush defense isn't the same as it was early in the year, but the same can be said for Green Bay's offensive line. Ryan Grant is an iffy option. … The Patriots should have the ball in the red zone plenty against the Cardinals, so Sammy Morris should have some scoring opportunities. It's a committee in New England, but Morris is the leader once again. … Tashard Choice and Marion Barber are ranked as if Barber is playing. MBIII will probably be a game-time decision Saturday night, but owners can't trust his toe any longer. Choice would inch up if Barber is out.

LeRon McClain rushed 23 times for 87 yards against Pittsburgh. Look for a similar effort against a stout Dallas rush defense. McClain will definitely have the goal-line snaps, if Baltimore ever gets there. … With Kris Jenkins losing energy and effectiveness by the week, Maurice Morris is a reasonable flex option this week. … Jonathan Stewart has played so well in the red zone, he's likely to continue to get the carries. Yardage is unlikely to be high against the Giants, though, so he's a risky flex play at best. … I'd actually play Cedric Benson over Jamal Lewis, just because I trust the Cincinnati offense more – which is sad. … Move Dominic Rhodes up twenty spots if Joseph Addai is out.

Week 16 Wide Receivers

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Andre Johnson

at OAK

-

2

Calvin Johnson

vs. NO

-

3

Brandon Marshall

vs. BUF

4

Roddy White

at MIN

-

5

Larry Fitzgerald

at NE

-

6

Steve Smith

at NYG

-

7

Antonio Bryant

vs. SD

-

8

Randy Moss

vs. ARZ

-

9

Marques Colston

at DET

-

10

Wes Welker

vs. ARZ

-

11

Reggie Wayne

at JAC

-

12

Greg Jennings

at CHI

-

13

Anquan Boldin

at NE

Highly questionable, ranked in case he starts

14

Lee Evans

at DEN

-

15

Dwayne Bowe

vs. MIA

-

16

Terrell Owens

vs. BAL

-

17

Lance Moore

at DET

-

18

Jerricho Cotchery

at SEA

Probable(shoulder)

19

Eddie Royal

vs. BUF

-

20

Kevin Walter

at OAK

-

21

Bernard Berrian

vs. ATL

-

22

Vincent Jackson

at TB

Probable(concussion)

23

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

at CLE

Probable(hand)

24

Laveranues Coles

at SEA

Questionable(thigh)

25

Steve Breaston

at NE

Move up 4 spots is Boldin is out

26

Anthony Gonzalez

at JAC

-

27

Hines Ward

at TEN

-

28

Deion Branch

vs. NYJ

-

29

Santana Moss

vs. PHI

Probable(concussion)

30

Donald Driver

at CHI

-

31

DeSean Jackson

at WAS

No Curtis could help

32

Davone Bess

at KC

-

33

Isaac Bruce

at STL

-

34

Torry Holt

vs. SF

-

35

Santonio Holmes

at TEN

-

36

Braylon Edwards

vs. CIN

-

37

Devin Hester

vs. GB

-

38

Derrick Mason

at DAL

Probable(shoulder)

39

Chad Ocho Cinco

at CLE

Probable(hamstring)

40

Domenik Hixon

vs. CAR

Questionable(foot)

41

Bryant Johnson

at STL

-

42

Chris Chambers

at TB

-

43

Muhsin Muhammad

at NYG

-

44

Donnie Avery

vs. SF

-

45

Ted Ginn Jr.

at KC

-

46

Justin Gage

vs. PIT

-

47

Amani Toomer

vs. CAR

-

48

Bobby Engram

vs. NYJ

-

49

Brandon Jones

vs. PIT

-

50

Steve Smith

vs. CAR

-

51

Dennis Northcutt

vs. IND

-

52

Roy Williams

vs. BAL

Probable(foot)

53

Mark Clayton

at DAL

-

54

Sidney Rice

vs. ATL

-

55

Josh Reed

at DEN

-

56

Michael Jenkins

at MIN

-

WR Notes:Dan Orlovsky has easily been Calvin Johnson's best quarterback this season. Megatron has averaged 100 yards and a touchdown in his last five starts with Orlovsky. DanO has averaged 253 yards in his last four starts and is a sneaky QB play if you are truly desperate. … Roy E. Williams could be the most overpaid player in the league this side of Jerry Porter. Cris Collinsworth alluded to how truly worthless he looks on tape. … If Anquan Boldin doesn't play, move Steve Breaston into the top-20. Over the last three weeks, he has virtually identical target, reception, and yardage numbers to his famous teammates anyway. There should be plenty of points in this game no matter the weather. … Yes, it's a tough matchup for Steve Smith in the Meadowlands. But he'll beat your ass if you bench him and you'll deserve it. … Jeff Garcia's status shouldn't change Antonio Bryant's value much, as we saw last week. The Chargers remain one of the easiest teams to get big plays against. Their effort level is questionable. … Andre Johnson owners, like Randy Moss and Wes Welker owners last week, don't need to worry about the Nmandi factor because the Texans can just move A.J. around the field.

Lance Moore is still getting his 6-8 targets per week, even if the yards haven't been there lately. Reggie Bush's absence will help him. Don't outsmart yourself and bench him against the Lions. … With Marvin Harrison out, Anthony Gonzalez becomes a very good WR3 option against a poor Jacksonville secondary. … I don't need a huge excuse to get back on the Lee Evans bandwagon. Facing Denver with Trent Edwards back in the lineup is more than enough reason for me. Denver simply could not locate Steve Smith last week, and remain a terrible cover team without Champ Bailey. Their front seven is so light that they have to bring their safety down in the box to stop the running game. … The favorable matchup against the Seahawks gives Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles a chance to end a weak season on a high note. It's a similar matchup to the one against Buffalo last week: small cornerbacks who aren't great tacklers. The Jets WRs had solid games then and should once again. … Bernard Berrian is the definition of a risky WR2, but the Atlanta defense has given up a lot of big plays to speed threats in recent weeks including Antonio Bryant, Steve Smith, and Devery Henderson. They are not a great road defense.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh could take a hit in the rankings if the wind reports in Cleveland stay ugly, but the matchup is certainly right. Despite last week's game, Housh has mostly been consistent despite playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick all year. … On paper, the Titans look like a tough matchup for Hines Ward. In reality, their pass defense has fallen off the last month and their pass rush won't be the same without Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Don't expect a huge game, but it's an easier matchup than Baltimore. He topped 100 yards. … If the Redskins could only score one touchdown against the Bengals, I wouldn't bet on two against the Eagles. This offense is bankrupt. That makes Santana Moss a dicey play. … Deion Branch has 25 targets in the last three weeks. Bobby Engram has 17, Koren Robinson nine. New York's secondary looks worse by the week. The only concern for Branch is that he gets the Darrelle Revis treatment. Eric Mangini knows how dangerous Branch is, at least relative to the other Seattle wideouts. … Davone Bess didn't do anything last week because Miami couldn't pick up a first down in the second half. They didn't need to throw to win. He's still a solid WR3. … Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are respectable WR3 options because of the matchup. … The Packers secondary is no longer that tough a matchup, so Devin Hester is an option. Just not a great one. … Bryant Johnson didn't appear to lose any snaps to Josh Morgan last week. … A mild Donnie Avery revival is not worth betting on for a second straight week.

TE Notes:John Carlson impresses more every week. He gets more production with fewer targets than any of the top tight ends, and now the targets are coming in bunches. He's too hot to sit and is a big play threat for his size. … Zach Miller is never a great bet to score because he plays on the Raiders, but he's as steady as anyone in PPR formats. Keep an eye on his shoulder injury, though, because he's not a lock to play this week. … If Antonio Gates is healthy enough to catch seven pass for 78 yards against the Chiefs, he's healthy enough to start in all leagues. … Jason Witten is another player that doesn't seem "100%," but there just aren't enough compelling options to start over him.

With Denver's running game struggling so much, Daniel Graham is getting on the field more than usual. That hurts Tony Scheffler, who was often on the sideline last week when Brandon Stokley was in. He's too talented to dismiss, but too erratic to place in the top ten. … After a dead month, Owen Daniels has caught ten passes for 106 yards in the last two weeks. Betting on Daniels is betting on a lot of red zone trips for the Texans. They have gone up and down the field in much tougher matchups the last two weeks. … Jerramy Stevens is a decent sneaky play against a San Diego secondary that struggles against tight ends.