Mayor Gains Boost In Poll but Is Facing Wide Disapproval

By MICHAEL COOPER and MARJORIE CONNELLY

Published: September 9, 2003

After guiding the city through last month's blackout and spending much of the summer courting voters, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has gained a modest lift in his job-approval ratings, the latest New York Times poll has found.

But a majority of New Yorkers still disapprove of the way he has handled his job.

Mr. Bloomberg won praise for his stewardship during the blackout -- there was less violence than in the 1977 blackout -- but it was not enough to convince most city residents that he is a good mayor. Fifty-nine percent of those polled approved of his handling of the blackout, while 30 percent disapproved. But asked about his work as mayor overall, only 32 percent approved while 57 percent disapproved.

The mayor's job-approval rating, which began to drop last year when he raised taxes and cut spending to balance the budget, has climbed eight percentage points since June, when only 24 percent said they approved of his job performance, the lowest approval rating for any mayor since The Times began polling about mayors a quarter of a century ago.

The poll, which found New Yorkers still worried about another terrorist attack two years after the World Trade Center was brought down, also found them concerned about economic issues. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed said their family's financial situation had declined in the past two years; when the same question was asked a year ago, 27 percent said so.

The telephone survey was conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 4 with 976 adults throughout the city. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

New Yorkers remain generally positive about their city. More than 8 in 10 said they have a good image of the city. About half said that, given the choice, they would like to remain in New York, a drop from 57 percent a year ago but better than it was in the early 1990's, when a majority said they wanted to move out of the city.

Only a little of that good feeling has rubbed off on the mayor, though.

The slight lift in Mayor Bloomberg's numbers comes after a summer in which he took pains to burnish his public image. He abandoned most of the harshest budget cuts he proposed and now talks frequently about trying to scale back the tax increases he pushed through. He spent more time in the neighborhoods, schmoozing with regular New Yorkers over lunch or at senior centers. He took two trips abroad, to the Dominican Republic and Israel, that could appeal to important blocs.

But he continues to be particularly unpopular among Hispanic New Yorkers, who were crucial to his election victory in 2001. Only 23 percent of Hispanics said they approved of the job he is doing as mayor, and they were more likely than any other group to disapprove of his handling of the blackout and the city's recovery from the terrorist attacks.

Although the mayor found ways to avoid making harsh cuts, his tough talk about the need for them apparently is still remembered. Some said they believed the cuts were diminishing city services, and others thought, erroneously, that he had cut the number of teachers and firefighters. (While he cut the education and fire budgets and closed six fire companies, he did not lay off teachers or firefighters.)

To be sure, being a mayor in tough times is bound to involve making unpopular decisions. Still, considering the disparate criticism leveled at Mr. Bloomberg, a veteran political consultant for both Democrats and Republicans, Norman Adler, said it sounded as if some people were simply trying to rationalize a visceral dislike of the mayor.

''My theory is that sometimes a public personality is disliked, and people fish around for explanations,'' Mr. Adler said. ''For whatever reason, the mayor got off on a bad footing with the electorate, and he's got to find a way to get on solid ground. He's not cuddly, but neither was Rudy Giuliani and he did just fine. There's no explaining these things. You know how sometimes you meet somebody and just don't like them? It's like that happened, but on a mass scale.''

Mr. Bloomberg's aides said some of the unpopular decisions he made at the beginning of his term would help ensure the city's future.

''Mayor Bloomberg was elected to lead New York through a crisis,'' said Edward Skyler, the mayor's press secretary. ''He has made the tough choices that were necessary to keep the city a safe place where people want to work and live and has succeeded in closing massive budget deficits, bringing jobs back to the city and fundamentally reforming our school system. Because of his leadership, the best days for New York City are yet to come.''

Segments of the population that are supportive of the mayor include those with high incomes and those who are more highly educated. Fifty-nine percent of people with a post-graduate education and 57 percent of those whose annual household income exceeds $100,000 approve of his job performance.

The geographic part of the city that is most supportive is Manhattan, where 49 percent approve of his job performance and 39 percent disapprove. In the rest of the city, only 27 percent approve.

Handling a catastrophe well can raise the popularity of a politician, as was evident after Sept. 11, 2001, when Rudolph W. Giuliani was transformed into one of the most popular figures in America. One month before the attacks, Mr. Giuliani's approval rating in the city stood at 55 percent. One month afterward, it was at 85 percent.

Mayor Bloomberg's handling of the Aug. 14 blackout won him praise and favorable publicity. (''Even Rudy couldn't have done better,'' Newsweek said.) Most New Yorkers were unable to watch their mayor in action on television, since their power was out, so he did not end up with a very big bounce in his poll numbers.

Asked why the blackout of 2003 was less violent than the blackout of 1977, 19 percent credited more police officers on the streets, 17 percent said society and the world had changed, and 15 percent saw it as a sign of the degree to which the city had changed since Sept. 11. Only 1 percent of those surveyed specifically cited Mayor Bloomberg, while 3 percent of those questioned in this poll cited Mr. Giuliani.

When asked if they viewed Mr. Bloomberg favorably or unfavorably, slightly more than a fifth of New Yorkers said their opinion was favorable; almost twice as many have an unfavorable view. The rest were undecided or had no opinion.

Gov. George E. Pataki, with whom the mayor has been sparring in recent weeks, did a bit better.

Though the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which the governor controls, raised the subway fare this spring and the governor has opposed several aid packages for the city, 30 percent of city residents said they have a favorable impression of him, while 29 percent said they had an unfavorable impression.

Although Mr. Pataki is now in his third term as governor, 39 percent of those polled said they were either undecided about him or did not know enough about him to form an opinion.

Support for President Bush's job performance, which was high among New Yorkers immediately after the 9/11 attack, continued to fall.

Thirty-four percent of New Yorkers approve, while 58 percent disapprove.

Most New Yorkers have not yet focused much attention on Mr. Bloomberg's proposal to ban party primaries, which will be on the ballot as a referendum in November. Fifty-nine percent of registered voters said they did not know enough about the proposed changes to offer an opinion.

Among those who knew enough to offer an opinion, 24 percent regarded it as a good idea and 15 percent said it was a bad idea.

How Poll Works

The latest New York Times Poll is based on telephone interviews conducted from Aug. 31 through Sept. 4 in all parts of New York City with 976 adults. Interviews were conducted in either English or Spanish.

The sample of telephone exchanges called was selected by a computer from a complete list of city exchanges. The exchanges were chosen to assure that each area in the city was represented in proportion to its population.

For each exchange, the telephone numbers were formed by random digits, thus permitting access to both listed and unlisted numbers. Within each household, one adult was designated by a random procedure to be the respondent for the survey.

The results have been weighted to take account of household size and number of telephone lines into the residence, and to adjust for variations in the sample relating to borough, race, sex, age, education and Hispanic descent.

In theory, in 19 cases out of 20 the results based on such samples will differ by no more than three percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking out all adult New Yorkers.

For smaller subgroups, the potential sampling error is larger.

In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Differences in the wording and order of questions, for instance, can lead to somewhat varying results.

Complete results for each question are available at nytimes.com/politics on the Web.

Photo: Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg gained slightly after the blackout. (Photo by Angel Franco/The New York Times)(pg. B6) Chart: ''Views of the Mayor and the City'' Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael R. Bloomberg is handling his job as mayor? Disapprove: 57% Approve: 32% Compared with two years ago, your family's Financial situation is: AUG. '02 BETTER: 17% SAME: 54% WORSE: 27% SEPT. '03 BETTER: 14% SAME: 48% WORSE: 38% Your biggest concern about living in New York City is: (most frequent responses) AUG. '02 HIGH COSTS/INFLATION: 7% ECONOMY/UNEMPLOYMENT: 10% TERRORISM: 11% CRIME: 14% SEPT. '03 HIGH COSTS/INFLATION: 16% ECONOMY/UNEMPLOYMENT: 11% TERRORISM: 11% CRIME: 14% In 10 or 15 years, life in New York City will be: AUG. '02 BETTER: 33% SAME: 38% WORSE: 23% SEPT. '03 BETTER: 34% SAME: 26% WROSE: 31% Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of: MICHAEL R.BLOOMBERG FAVORABLE: 21% UNDECIDED: 37% UNFAVORABLE: 39% GEORGE E. PATAKI FAVORABLE: 30% UNDECIDED: 39% UNFAVORABLE: 29% GEORGE W. BUSH FAVORABLE: 28% UNDECIDED: 23% UNFAVORABLE: 47% Based on citywide phone polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News. The latest poll was conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 4 by The Times with 976 adults. Some figures do not add up to 100 because of rounding or incomplete responses. (pg. B6)