Sunday, January 01, 2012

Guesstimates

Because quantum theory, chaos, the law of initial conditions and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics preclude the ability to predict the future, the only other option one can take regarding the reading of tea leaves vis a vis the future is to guess, something that can be somewhat accurate if one is aware of strange attractors and the entities attracted to same. So, as Kurt Vonnegut says, And so it goes.

Some 2012 negatives - A tiny sampling to be sure:

Obama signs the National Defense Authorization Act- Due processgone in the name of security

The endless Presidential Campaign - Promises never kept, just ask Obama about this.

Presidential Campaign II - From Obama to the Repugs, incompetency, fanaticism, ignorance and corruption rule the day. A third party disruptor may show up given the sorry condition this once great nation is in.

Congress - Bought and paid for comes to mind along with sloth, unenlightened self interest and craven ineptness

Religion - Reality, as seen through the wrong end of a telescope, continues to thrive in the land of the free, home of the brave.

Nationalism - Religion's first cousin

Corporate Personhood - Judge Roberts & Company have no shame

Endless war - Iran could be next now that the Iraq fubar has finally run it's course.

The 99% - The potential for violence is nigh, especially from those with no jobs, no homes and no hope thanks to WS malfeasance perpetuated on the US aided and abetted by government, the Fed and big business.

The Press or lack thereof - George Orwell and Paddy Chayefsky had it right all along

Reality Shows - The race toward the bottom continues unabated

Central Bank follies - Printing money does not equate to generating value through innovation and real capitalism. Just look at Europe and the US to see why.

Tech, in general, shrinks in size while increasing in power. Distributed systems, cloud computing, AI and all things digital will presage the arrival of the singularity as the infrastructure is in place to make it happen if the financial and political system doesn't totally implode. Other specifics include the rise of solid state memory, flexible quantum dot displays and 3D chip design, things that will transform smart phones, pads and other discrete devices into objects of unimaginable power.

Education - The inexorable push into digital finally starts to impact US education in a good way as tech cannot be stopped, only harnessed, something people are finally understanding as we move further into the 21st century.

End game: 2012 looks problematical to say the least, thanks, in large part, to the negative impact the central banks have had on the world's economy. Factoring this in with peak oil, endless war, inept governance and climate change only adds to the treacherous sledding envisioned for the upcoming year but there is hope. Science, tech, innovation and creativity, combined with an emerging sense that we are the 99%, can make a difference but only if we have the courage to make it happen.

Remember, maintaining the status quo is, in fact, Einstein's definition of Insanity of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.