Election day thoughts.... a semi-live blog posting on the election as it unfolds.

2:30pm Saturday 27th November 2010

At lunch today with a number of people that I knew (and some that I hadn't met before), the sense of a swing was on. It wasn't their predictions of the result that mattered, it was how they said they had voted. People were saying odd things like "I voted first for The Greens, and then the Liberals". Or "I voted for Clem (Newton-Brown, Liberal, Prahran)". People who wouldn't have voted Liberal in a pink fit over the last decade. It's certainly not a representative sample, but it fits the poll indications of a swing.

My predictions (which may prove disastrously wrong!):

One: The Greens won't get anybody elected in the Legislative Assembly. There will be enough a swing to the Liberals in the inner city seats to keep them out.

The Libs will win a large majority of the ten most marginal seats at risk of falling to the Liberals from Mount Waverley to Ripon (0-4% margin): 8-10 seats to the Liberals

From Bendigo East to Carrum (in the 5-6% range) they'll some to many of those eight seats: say 2-6 seats to the Liberals

From Yan Yean to Narre Warren North (five seats in the 7-9% range) they may win a couple: say 0-4 seats

This leaves the range of seats falling as 8-19, with 14-16 seats being a good middle range: which would be enough to elect a coalition government.

Three: My friend Janet Kaylock, who is fifth on the ALP's ticket for South Eastern Metropolitan will (sadly) fail to get elected. But she'll take her loss well. She'll get between 60 - 180 first preference votes.

"6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll [exit poll] figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats."

A total of 50 seats would be a gain of 18 seats: just greater than the 14-16 seat "good middle" range I predicted earlier today, and within the wider 8-19 range I mentioned. No meaningful results yet..

7:07pm

Antony Green announced a 5% swing, which (if even) would lead to the ALP retaining government. About ten minutes earlier he was talking about 6-7%, so it's still fluctuating.

7:16pm

Antony Green thinks there might be some big swings in Cranbourne, Eltham, and smaller swings elsewhere including regional Victoria. Which raises the question: where do the "middle" city marginals end up?

7:26pm

Antony Green says "If I was brave I'd predict a coalition victory, but I'm not brave"

7:32pm

Liberals are ahead in Melbourne based on less than 3% of the vote. It makes it look bad for The Greens.

7:52pm

Unannounced, the VEC is posting XML (EML) result files on their web site... allowing me, in future, in theory, to directly analyse results as they come. Woo Hoo!

7:59pm

Antony almost calls it for the Coalition. ABC can count 10 seats lost. Antony thinks ALP doing better in country seats, bad in Melbourne. ALP thinks they will keep Barwon.

8:11pm

Antony counts 45 seats for the coalition which is a majority, but he hasn't called it yet.

8:15pm

Gavin Jennings (ALP) effectively concedes..

8:21pm

On 15.6%, Melbourne is: ALP 2263 votes LIB 1941 votes GRE 2191 votes This is an improvement on earlier voting which had the Liberals well ahead of The Greens.

8:29pm

ABC computer prediction: ALP 38 LIB 40 NAB 10

8:55pm

Based on the even three way split (with the ALP ahead), and Liberal preferences mostly going to the ALP, I think it can safely be said that The Greens will not be winning Melbourne.

8:59pm

ALP think they are doing comparatively well in Bentleigh, and that it will go down to the wire. If the ALP were to resurrect themselves, they'd need a series of 'skin of their teeth' successes like that.

9:09pm

Helen Kroger (Lib Senator) - perhaps correctly - says that the decision to not preference The Greens was a defining moment in the campaign. I've got a bit of sympathy for that view: putting your preferences in accordance with your views rather than your perception of the most cunning plan is a legitimate approach.

9:08pm

5.3% swing statewide swing, or possibly 6.3%. The loss in Labor primary vote went directly to Lib/Nats rather than going to The Greens.

Antony thinks 48 seats to Coalition. "It would be remarkable for the ALP to win now" "It certainly looks like a Coalition government".

9:20pm

Preliminary Legislative Council Votes.... this indicates that the Country Alliance will be as powerful as The Greens. A majority to the Coalition... However, I wonder whether a lot more counting is required before these numbers are final.

Lib/Nat 21 ALP 15 Green 2 Country 2

Leg Council

ALP

Lib

Nat

Green

Country

Eastern Met

2

3

East Vic

2

1

1

1

North Met

2

2

1

North Vic

1

2

1

1

SE Met

3

2

South Met

1

3

1

West Met

2

2

1

West Vic

2

2

1

9:27pm

Greg Barber, The Greens claims one third of Liberals preferenced The Greens, which is a large number of people not following the Liberal's preferences.

They claim only half the votes have been counted in some of their seats.

9:37pm

Antony Green predicting:

ALP 40 LIB 38 NAT 10

9:40pm

Wooo Hoo! my pre-election prediction is looking spot on.

The ALP had 55 seats. If they end up with 40 that is a loss of 15. My prediction was "This leaves the range of seats falling as 8-19, with 14-16 seats being a good middle range: which would be enough to elect a coalition government." 15 seats is right on the money! (I bet it doesn't end up on exactly 15.)

9:45pm

ALP still claiming that a hung parliament (44 seats) is still a possible outcome.

9:50pm

Antony Green's computer wasn't expecting the Country Alliance to come second to the Nationals in Shepparton.

9:51pm

In the early part of the election coverage, there was some talk that Justin Madden (ALP Planning Minister) might be in trouble in Essendon. As it turns out, he's safely retained his seat with 54% two party (but only 37% primary vote).

9:54pm

Rob Hulls (ALP) announcing that it is too close to call. It looks like there will be no concession speech tonight. "Only Henry Bolte [has achieved four terms] in the modern era". He concedes Carrum, formerly held my by my friend Jenny Lindell. He thinks a hung parliament is the most likely result.

10:01pm

Antony Green: "The turnout is incredibly low"... Antony: that's because LOTS of people voted early. I've heard many people saying that's what they were doing. Some of them think that this is a good thing. Their theory it should be encouraged because it makes it easy to vote. I think it is a bad thing because many people voted before all the policies were launched. But maybe I'm an old fashioned fuddy duddy.

10:06pm

Most times when the ABC does a live cross to a candidate, there is a 'hissing' noise in the background. It sounds like static. It's caused by rain/water on the roads.

Ian Henderson (ABC) says it took him an hour to vote today. I wonder how much of this was due to the use of Netbooks to tick people off the rolls instead of printed voter lists. There were only three desks handing out ballot papers to voters in the seat of Melbourne at the Victoria University (Flinders Street) polling station.

Given my earlier prediction, I should have bet on the Coalition winning and won a substantial amount of money. Better odds than Tattslotto.

10:27pm

We're in that nervous time when no one knows: who will speak first, Brumby or Baillieu?

10:32pm

The number of red lollies that Antony Green is allowed to consume during election broadcasts is restricted. Who knows what might happen if he had too many.

10:37pm

David Davis (Lib) thinks 44 seats secure with 3-4 opportunities.

10:44pm

John Brumby speaks.

"Most likely result is a hung parliament".

Perhaps it's time for the ALP to study How to Succeed in a Hung Parliament, an article in Quadrant about a hung parliament in NSW in 1911. It's an interesting (and amusing) story.

Brumby claims his current Chief of Staff is "up there with the best of them"... (Julia Gillard was one of his earlier Chiefs of Staff, so it would be dangerous for him to claim the current one is the best he's had.)

550,000 pre-poll votes still to be counted (out of a total electorate of 3.6 million). Brumby says his government will be the Caretaker Government. And somehow "the work starts tomorrow"... well... I would have thought Caretaker conventions would limit that somewhat.

It sounds rather like a campaign launch speech.

10:59pm

If it is 44 members each way, how would parliament operate?... ahh, there'd be a good reason for avoiding even numbers of members in a parliament.

11:11pm Peter Ryan. "Unlikely result is that it will be a hung parliament. The likely result is that we will form government." Brumby's speech a "Denial of reality".

11:13pm Ted Baillieu on the stage.. with wife and daughters. "The final outcome may still be uncertain" (lots of laughs). "But what is clear is that there has been a huge swing against the Labor government". "I thank the volunteers of all parties who stood in the rain today and felt the refreshing rain of renewal"

"The election's not over. The count goes on. We're ready to govern."

10:25pm

So: Both Brumby and Baillieu say they are ready to govern. If it is split 44/44, maybe the only solution will be to have a "Grand Unity" government (of 88 people to nil).

On that most improbable note, I think I'll sign off for the night!
Comments (3)Anthony Holmes November 27th, 2010 02:33:27 PM