27 February 2019

Hung parliament after elections in Moldova

The pro-Russian Socialists have won the parliamentary elections in Moldova but failed to secure the majority needed to form a government. The pro-European Acum party came second and the outgoing Democratic Party third. The Șor party will now also be represented in the parliament. The uncertain balance of power means that it remains unclear for now in which direction the country will move.

Russia miscalculated

Unlike other commentators political scientist Vitaly Portnikov writes in Obozrevatel that the Kremlin is the loser of the elections in Moldova:

“After the victory of Igor Dodon, Moscow's man, in the presidential election all the Kremlin needed for total victory was for the Socialists to win in the parliamentary elections. Then it would have had the Republic of Moldova in its pocket. ... But Moscow miscalculated - and now it isn't even denying it. Only 31 percent of voters cast their ballot for Dodon's party. And that means the remaining 69 percent, even if they vote for competing parties, don't want to decide in Russia's favour now and won't in the future.”

Bucharest should push for unification

“The Republic of Moldova will most likely never become an EU member state - at least not in the next 30 years. ... Yet the politicians and the Romanian diplomats have repeatedly talked of a 'pro-Western orientation', of 'the Republic of Moldova's European path'. ... What a hypocritical and - excuse the language - shitty message. ... In a normal country the political leadership in Bucharest would have to loudly and clearly proclaim: Romania wants unification with the Republic of Moldova! ... Full stop! What is all this hypocrisy? Did West Germany ever say it wanted to help the GDR to get into the EU and adopt a European path? Nonsense! Unification!”

EU's Neighbourhood Policy has failed

Moldova has so far been a successful example of the EU policy of the Eastern Partnership but that is likely to be over now, Delfi laments:

“The election results stand for a defeat on the part of the Eastern Partnership. Support for pro-European parties has not increased and the lot of the average citizen in daily life has not improved. The EU can offer much advice for the fight against corruption and the oligarchies, but the latter continue to rule and exploit the country. The EU must reassess its Neighbourhood Policy. And the European elections will no doubt produce only an even more populistic and divided EU Parliament. Whether anybody will still be interested in the Eastern Partnership after that is questionable.”

Moldova's cliffhanger continues

The Republic of Moldova is facing anything but a stable future, Izvestia comments:

“The formal winners - the Socialists under President Dodon - are in a difficult situation because the other parties are clearly pro-European. But that doesn't mean it will be easy for them to form a new pro-Western coalition because the Euro-Atlantic trio made up of the Democratic Party, Acum and Șor looks more like the swan, the pike and the crab [in the fable by Ivan Krylov] than a bloc united by common ideological ground. ... That said, the country is badly in need of political resolve and a minimum of stability. ... Moldova is entering yet another turbulent phase. Not only the parliament but also the country as a whole is hanging by a thread.”

Election outcome depends on voters' wallets

The poor economic situation in the country makes it hard for many to believe in a European solution, Cristian Unteanu writes on his blog for Adevărul:

“The elections were an important test for a type of voting behaviour that may extend beyond Moldova's borders. Eurosceptic discourse is all the more convincing when it's accompanied by immediate economic perspectives: more jobs, promises of low energy prices and trade agreements with preferential rates for state production that is often minimal and of poor quality. In view of this perspective, I strongly fear that once again voters will be convinced by 'a bottle of oil, a sack of flour and a bag of sugar'.”

Kremlin delighted

Polityka believes that the election result will strengthen Russia's influence in Moldova:

“The parties now have 45 days to form a government and if they fail new elections will be held in Moldova. President Dodon has already noted that such a scenario is very likely. The Republic of Moldova, which is a member of the EU's Eastern Partnership programme but is divided into a pro-Russian part and a pro-Western part, therefore has a problem. Brussels and Moscow are following events very closely. In the Kremlin they're rubbing their hands because the chaos is continuing. A favourable situation for Russia, which is planning to drag the Republic of Moldova back into its zone of influence.”

Moldovans should choose stability

Political scientist Anneli Ute Gabanyi explains in Radio Europa Liberă which questions she believes the citizens should ask before voting on Sunday:

“Voters in the Republic of Moldova first of all need a certain economic stability. With whom do they plan to achieve this? ... With a country like Russia, which constantly tries to blackmail Moldova, be it by lowering and even stopping Moldovan exports or by playing tricks with gas supplies? Whom do the 50 percent of pro-Russian citizens want to back? A political party that tries to influence them with hybrid PR methods and doesn't help them economically or offer them any kind of political perspective? How things stand is clear, but what is lacking is politicians who can explain them.”

Kremlin friendship or self-liquidation

Vzglyad describes relations between the various political camps in the Republic of Moldova and Moscow:

“Despite all the scandals between Chişinău and Moscow that accompanied the rule of the Communists, relations were never broken off entirely and anti-Russian hysteria never spread in Moldova. For the right - whether in power or in opposition - Moscow is the embodiment of all evil and its politics are based on this axiom. All Moldovan right-wing politicians de facto embody a collective Poroshenko. With the difference that many of them see the self-liquidation of Moldova and its annexation with Romania as the only way to save the country from the 'Russian threat'.”