Civitas Poll: Unaffiliated Voters Would Pick Trump Again

More unaffiliated North Carolina voters would still elect President Donald Trump over former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, according to a poll released by the Civitas Institute this week.

The poll, released as part of the institute’s annual unaffiliated poll, found that 43 percent of likely North Carolina unaffiliated voters would vote for Trump if the election were held again, compared to 39 percent that would vote for Clinton.

Another 9 percent said that they would vote for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, and the remaining 9 percent refused to answer the question.

Of the poll Civitas President Francis De Luca said, “This result appears to illustrate two things: that Trump voters are sticking with him, and that elections are binary. Despite Donald Trump’s perceived unpopularity, when compared to another actual candidate, he remains ahead.”

Looking into the crosstabs for the poll, 4 percent of Trump’s support came from those who say they would switch their vote to Trump, whereas Clinton picked up 3 percent from people who said they would switch their votes.

Trump found more support with men, where 53 percent of male respondents said they would vote for Trump compared to 28 percent of male respondents that supported Clinton.

For women, Trump collected 33 percent of their support, while Clinton received 49 percent.

Of the poll at large De Luca said, “It’s no secret that unaffiliated voters are the fastest growing voter block in the country. The polling data is clear that these voters trend more Conservative in their views on state and national issues.”

According to the poll, more unaffiliated voters believe that the state is headed in the right direction than in years past, though the number still falls below a majority.

This year 39 percent of respondents said that North Carolina is headed in the right direction, compared to 37 percent last year.

Since Civitas began asking the question in 2010 the response has steadily risen from 29 percent in 2010 to 39 percent this year.

One of the more tangible answers in the poll is the question of what issue is most important to the unaffiliated voters, which are the portion that politicians seek to court and sway to their side each election season.

The poll found that 24 percent of respondents believe that education and teacher pay are the most important issue in the state, followed by healthcare and healthcare costs at 20 percent.

The other highest concern was the economy and jobs at 16 percent.

As far as favorability ratings, Trump is under water. Forty percent of unaffiliated voters have a favorable opinion of Trump while 51 percent do not. However Trump’s favorability is two points higher now than it was last year.

Gov. Roy Cooper has found himself on the right side of his favorability rating, with 43 percent of unaffiliated voters saying that they think of him favorability and only 23 percent saying that they have an unfavorable opinion of Cooper.

The poll was in the field Aug. 7-8 and polled 400 registered, likely, unaffiliated voters with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The institute defines a likely voter as one who has voted in a recent election, or is newly registered since the last election.

The institute also ensured that 30 percent of respondents were cell phone users.

The institute has conducted live caller polling in the state since May 2005 and claims status as the only “organization offering independent, nonpartisan data on current opinion.”