Archive for the ‘dee gordon’ tag

Third year running for this post, looking at the announced winners of the Gold Gloves for 2015 and comparing them to the Fielding Bible winners for 2015 and the leaders of various defensive metrics available to us. For a glossary of the metrics, see the end of the post.

So, Andrelton Simmons is a unanimous choice of a blue-ribbon panel yet doesn’t win the Gold Glove? Likewise, Kinsler and Posey are selected but neither got the Gold Glove. Simmons is probably the biggest mistake in the Gold Glove awards, but lets dig into the stats to see what happened.

Now lets start in with the defensive metrics. First: UZR/150.

Pos

AL UZR/150

NL UZR/150

C

n/a

n/a

1B

Mitch Moreland, Tex (6.4)

Brandon Belt, SF (10.7)

2B

Ian Kinsler, Det (6.7)

Dee Gordon, Mia (6.0)

SS

J.J. Hardy, Bal (10.1)

Adeiny Hechavarria, Mia (17.7)

3B

Adrian Beltre, Tex (13.0)

Matt Duffy, SF (12.7)

LF

Yoenis Cespedes (22.2)

Starling Marte, Pit (12.1)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (42)

A.J. Pollack, Ari (14)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (12.1)

Jason Heyward, Stl (22.3)

P

n/a

n/a

We see some consistency here with the players named in the Gold Gloves and/or the Fielding Bible awards. 7 of the 14 leaders here also won Gold Gloves, and 4 of the 10 leaders here won Fielding Bible awards. You’re going to see the same outfield names over and over; that’s how dominant this selection of outfielders were this year. Ian Kinsler represents one of the bigger snubs in the Gold Glove awards, as we’re about to see.

Here’s Defensive Runs Saved

Pos

AL DRS

NL DRS

C

1B

Adam Lind, Mil (5)

Paul Goldschmidt, Ari (18)

2B

Ian Kinsler, Det (19)

Dee Gordon, Mia (13)

SS

Didi Gregorius (5)

Andrelton Simmons, ATL (25)

3B

Adrian Beltre, Tex (18)

Nolan Arenado, Col (18)

LF

Yoenis Cespedes (15)

Starling Marte, Pit (24)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (40.7)

Billy Hamilton, Cin (18.8)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (6)

Jason Heyward, Stl (22)

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (13)

Zack Greinke, LAD (9)

These are definitely closer to the Gold Gloves. 10 of the 16 league leaders here also won GGs. A note here; the Kiermaier DRS figure is apparently the highest ever recorded by a fielder in a single season. Simmons’ 25 DRS dwarfed the field, as does his overall DRS figure over the last three years, more evidence that the GG award to Crawford was poor.

Here’s FRAA:

Pos

AL FRAA

NL FRAA

C

Francisco Cervelli, NYY (11.7)

Yasmani Grandal (20.9)

1B

Mark Canha, Oak (5.8)

Paul Goldschmidt, Ari (13.0)

2B

Roughned Odor, Tex (5.0)

Danny Espinosa (10.7)

SS

Elvis Andrus, Tex (10.3)

Jean Segura (10.3)

3B

Manny Machado, Bal (20.3)

Nolan Arenado, Col (20.6)

LF

Kevin Pillar, Tor (14.3)

Yoenis Cespedes (5.2)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (24.6)

Ender Inciarte, Ari (5.9)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (9.5)

Jason Heyward, Stl (11.4)

P

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (10.4)

Jake Arrieta, Chc (7.4)

Just 8 of the 18 leaders in this stat also won Gold Gloves, and the presence especially of the Nats’ own Danny Espinosa really calls this stat into question. How is Espinosa, a part time player, the league leader here in a year where there were several other good 2nd basemen?

Lastly, Total Zone

Pos

AL Total Zone Total Fielding

NL Total Zone Total Fielding

C

James McCann, Cle (11)

Wilson Ramos, Was (11)

1B

Mike Napoli (10)

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD (16)

2B

Jose Altuve, Hou (13)

Neil Walker, Pit (7)

SS

Francisco Lindor, Cle (14)

Brandon Crawford, SF (19)

3B

Evan Longoria, TB (14)

Jake Lamb, Ari (10)

LF

Yoenis Cespedes, Det (11)

Christian Yelich, Mia (12)

CF

Kevin Kiermaier, TB (24)

A.J. Pollack, Ari (20)

RF

Kole Calhoun, LAA (17)

Ichiro Suzuki, Mia (14)

P

Its easy to see w here some of the finalists came from in the GG awards, since this is the only list that GG finalist Wilson Ramos appears on. Its also the only place where GG winners Altuve and Crawford appear. Just 6 of these 18 leaders also won GGs, meaning its the least accurate predictor of GG winners. And one of the leaders in practically every other category (Heyward) is supplanted by the 40-yr old Suzuki in these stats. Makes you wonder.

Conclusion:

It seems to me that the “statistical”component of the Gold Gloves is using the wrong stats (FRAA and/or TZ), and that it should be using DRS and UZR/150. Even so, as noted elsewhere, the Gold Gloves are doing a much, much better job selecting the award winners on a whole, and the days of awarding them to the likes of Derek Jeter or Rafael Palmeiro seem long gone.

Glossary of these various stats and awards

Gold Gloves: awarded annually (presented by Rawlings) and are a combination of Manager/Coach voting and a “statistical component.” This component is provided by SABR and is now 25% of the voting. I cannot find details on what comprises this statistical component, but based on the finalists announced I strongly believe it is related to the Total Zone fielding measurements.

Fielding Bible Awards: Bill James-driven website that uses a committee of national writers to select the winners. The site is here and you can read about their methodology and panel members.

UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating, defined well here at fangraphs, attempts to be a comprehensive measure of how many batted balls are turned to outs for a particular fielder, then adjusted by errors, arm and other factors. UZR/150 standardizes the counting stat UZR to an average across 150 games to allow apples-to-apples comparisons of players who play different numbers of games in a season.

DRS; Defensive Runs Saved, defined well here at Fangraphs, focuses more on pure “runs saved” from all possible defensive plays that involve a fielder. It seems to measure more things that UZR and sometimes disagrees with UZR.

FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average, defined here at Baseball Prospectus. A measure that attempts to remove the bias present in zone-based data and also tries to factor in the tendencies of the pitcher on the mound (ground-ball guy, fly-ball guy, etc).

Total Zone: defined here at Baseball-reference.com. A different “total defense” measurement incorporating all the various defensive data available, including catcher data, zone fielding, errors, arm, etc.

My standard disclaimer; this is a whole huge post kvetching about my 2013 Fantasy Baseball team. If you don’t play fantasy, feel free to skip this 3,000 word missive. I’ll insert a “jump” line here so that RSS readers don’t have to see this whole massive post