Monday, November 15, 2004

BBC NEWS | Middle East | UN probe backs Iran nuclear claim

This game has been played before and it depends on how Israel and the United States view how close Iran is to making their nuclear weapons. It's no longer unusual to see Europe and the UN going against the United States in such a matter and the reality of more Islamic nations getting the nuclear weapons that will eventually be used in the middle east and possibly on a container ship to the United States is greater every day. Of course I know that there are political scientists busy trying to write 'laws' that fit the facts that nuclear weapons have not been used when two nations in opposition are in possession of said nukes. The US vs the USSR and now India vs Pakistan. Those political scientists will look at the fact that India and Pakistan have moved to the negotiation table, perhaps sobered by their mutual knowledge that a nuclear exchange would be horrific and the idea of a winner and loser would not be relevant. The danger is that this an assumtion that you have two rational players. I wouldn't bet on Pakistan continuing to be a rational player if a more theologically based leadership emerges. With Iran with a nuclear capability the chance of irrational behavior by the theocratic government is very possible. For that reason, Israel and or the US will not allow the weapon to be developed. So we see Iran agreeing to suspend their nuclear program. That agreement is in the national interest of Iran as is the hide and seek, we'll keep trying to get the nukes behavior that will continue.