Two almost identical seasons with Cliff Lee actually receiving less run support in a season where he has 8 more wins. Wins as a stat are completely fluky and offer zero predictive value. Don't even get me started on a closer blowing a save in the 9th only for his team to come back and score in the 10th to get him the win.

Aside from saves, Pitcher wins are the most meaningless stat in sports. They weren't 50 years ago when pitchers were going for CG's every game, but the game is different today.

skatingtripods wrote:So that's where we are, huh? We'd rather go 70-92 to avoid getting embarrassed in the playoffs.

Beautiful.

Guess those perennial playoff chases our teams are involved in have spoiled us. Shame on me for being excited about the idea of the Indians playing in October, even if it's just for one day.

We'll see how fast playoff tickets go on Friday/Monday.

Don't be a martyr and don't put words in my mouth. I said I'm not excited about playoff prospects. Nowhere did I say 70-92 is preferable. Nowhere can it be said I haven't attended scores of games during 70-92 seasons. Nowhere can it be said that in many years where I attended games and watched nightly that 70-92 wouldn't have been hopeful for the teams they put on the field.

I said this team doesn't excite me and I don't believe they have a realistic chance to advance. There is no Belle or Baerga or Vizquel or Alomar to draw people down there to be amazed simply by batting practice.

This is just being obtuse:

So that's where we are, huh? We'd rather go 70-92 to avoid getting embarrassed in the playoffs.

Just a reminder that the Tigers are 33-36 against teams above .500 if you exclude their domination of us. Tampa Bay is 39-47 against winning teams. Boston is 13-6 against the faux contender Yankees (whose Pythagorean W-L is 73-77), 38-33 against other teams over .500. Texas is 67-66 against everybody but Houston.

We beat Oakland five out of seven. Swept Texas on the road. Had two blown saves with injured pitchers in the four-gamer at Fenway.

This team can play. Do they have enough to win in a five or seven-game series? I don't know. But I'd rather take the time to find out than lose 90 games.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Just a reminder that the Tigers are 33-36 against teams above .500 if you exclude their domination of us. Tampa Bay is 39-47 against winning teams. Boston is 13-6 against the faux contender Yankees (whose Pythagorean W-L is 73-77), 38-33 against other teams over .500. Texas is 67-66 against everybody but Houston.

We beat Oakland five out of seven. Swept Texas on the road. Had two blown saves with injured pitchers in the four-gamer at Fenway.

This team can play. Do they have enough to win in a five or seven-game series? I don't know. But I'd rather take the time to find out than lose 90 games.

We jumped all the way to rationalization already?Did we skip a step after anger?

So now we eliminate what the Tigers have done to us and we eliminate the Yankees based on some measure you needed to make the post. Seems a bit cavalier for a numbers guy.

Aren't the Indians actually worse than their actual record? Are't the Tigers actually better than theirs (based on pythagorean numbers), the Red Sox? What about the Rays?

You can take a look. Hell, you can look all day. Just apply the same criteria. If the Indians had a bad time of it for whatever reason getting swept at home by the Tigers (which did happen) then can't the same be said for a texas team that got swept by the Indians?

peeker643 wrote:Don't be a martyr and don't put words in my mouth. I said I'm not excited about playoff prospects. Nowhere did I say 70-92 is preferable. Nowhere can it be said I haven't attended scores of games during 70-92 seasons. Nowhere can it be said that in many years where I attended games and watched nightly that 70-92 wouldn't have been hopeful for the teams they put on the field.

I said this team doesn't excite me and I don't believe they have a realistic chance to advance. There is no Belle or Baerga or Vizquel or Alomar to draw people down there to be amazed simply by batting practice.

This is just being obtuse:

So that's where we are, huh? We'd rather go 70-92 to avoid getting embarrassed in the playoffs.

If you didn't say you're not excited about making the playoffs, then what did you say?

And no, I'm not excited about having that 'anything can happen if you get there' opportunity.

Do I hope they make it and that 'anything happens'? Of course I do. Am I invested in it or naive enough enough to be excited about it?

I am not.

Explain to me how that's any different.

Not martyrdom at all. Reality. The team that gets hot at the right time wins. The Giants were 44-42 against winning teams last season. The Reds were 40-36 and it took Johnny Cueto's injury to knock them out of the playoffs. The 2011 Cardinals played 102 of their 162 games against teams under .500. They went 30-30 in games against teams over .500. The 2011 Rangers went 35-37 against winning teams and were one Nelson Cruz misplay away from winning the World Series. The 2010 Giants went 33-41 against winning teams and they won it all.

Do I believe that the Indians a World Series championship caliber team? Not in the slightest. But, I'll gladly set that aside to enjoy the ride of a postseason chance and hopefully at least a divisional series and a couple of home playoff games.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

peeker643 wrote:We jumped all the way to rationalization already?Did we skip a step after anger?

No reason to be angry. Your cynicism doesn't anger me. Aren't message boards there for discussion? Isn't that what I did?

Did I not follow the rules?

So now we eliminate what the Tigers have done to us and we eliminate the Yankees based on some measure you needed to make the post. Seems a bit cavalier for a numbers guy.

Aren't the Indians actually worse than their actual record? Are't the Tigers actually better than theirs (based on pythagorean numbers), the Red Sox? What about the Rays?

Cavalier in what way? Yes, the Tigers are five games better than their actual W-L record, mostly from April when their bullpen was horrible. They also have 32 wins by five or more runs against just 14 losses by that same mark. Since Pythagorean W-L is run differential dependent, that's why. They're, in my opinion, the best team in the American League when Miggy's healthy, despite their marginal record against >.500 teams not named the Indians.

The Yankees have been a faux contender all season long. Didn't cherry pick that stat. The Yankees have been an overachiever. 27-15 in one-run games, yet -15 in run differential. Indians are 26-17 in one-run games, but also +53 in run differential.

The Red Sox Pyth W-L is 93-58, a one-game improvement.

The Rays Pyth W-L is 79-70. Three games worse than they are. So, by Pyth W-L, the Indians and Rangers should be the wild cards, with the Indians trailing by .5. The Indians' record is exactly where it should be at 81-69.

Didn't cherry pick a stat, as you insinuated. Jonah Keri hasn't been a believer in the Yankees all season. Neither have other writers that I respect. Surprised they didn't fall off the pace sooner.

If the Indians had a bad time of it for whatever reason getting swept at home by the Tigers (which did happen) then can't the same be said for a texas team that got swept by the Indians?

Absolutely. Over the course of a 162-game season, you can make a lot of arguments as to why things happened.

Again, no, I don't believe the Indians are better than the other four teams that will make the playoffs. But, they're not that much worse than any of them either. They're a legitimate team. Not necessarily a World Series contender, but if you look at them statistically, in a lot of categories, they're right there.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:[point overall is that making the playoffs is making the playoffs, regardless of when the season ends.

I don't see how that's not exciting, especially if you've followed them for a long time with very few moments like this.

Not as much for me. I've seen playoff games, runs, close calls, etc.

One game in October doesn't even come close to doing it for me any more. It just desn't.

Hell yes, it's better than no chance at all (or 70-92 by a whisker) but it doesn't motivate me or excite much in the least.

No more so than a 10-6 and wildcard loss would for Browns or 44-38 8th seed, first round playoff loss for the Cavs would.

Maybe it's because I'm getting old and jaded.

Maybe a part of it is the format where one bad throw/pitch/at bat/baserunning error sees ya bounced out of 'the playoffs'. To me, honestly, it's the fucking play in game on Tusday night before the NCAA tournament starts.

You call it playoff baseball like the NCAA calls it the first round of that tourney but it's not playoff baseball to me. It's a fucking dice roll. It's 6-6 vs. 7-8 suited.

Honestly, I'd probably be far more excited if the Indians were 81-81 and won the Central as opposed to if they 88-74 and win a WC spot. So maybe I'm bent about the 'payoff' to all this 'excitement' being not worthy of a great deal more investing on my part.

peeker643 wrote:2nd and 3rd order pythag on Rays shows them to be multiple games beyond their actual record.

Either way, doesn't matter. Maybe no one told the Indians that Yankees were 'faux contender', Tribe only heard 'contender' part and then wet the bed against NYY as well?

As for other clubs, again, the bottom line is even if Yankees, Red Sox and Rays aren't all that, the Indians are a combined 4-16 against the clubs. Which brings them to 8-35 when you do add Detroit.

Good God, just be really shitty against those teams at 15- 28 and you're probably winning a division or damn sure fighting tooth and nail for it today.

People tend to notice that. Or at least hear about it. And I, for one, don't see it being a matter of luck. Tribe earned that record against those teams. Both of us watched the games.

And yes, you were angry. Only rational explanation for your 70-92 comment. Nothing wrong with anger. It's okay.

Detroit is the elephant in the room but...

... the 4-16 record was a totally different ballclub early this year. With Gomes catching our pitching staff has really settled in, including the bullpen. Add in Rayburn's RH bat and some of the different line-ups we can now put out there (guys have settled into their rolls eg. the Chiz Aviles/Rodriguez platoon) we are not a team that Bos or the A's would take lightly.

Of course, they have to get there first. And nobody is gonna beat Detroit in a 7 game series unless injury.

Agreed. As someone who has rooted for the Tribe through decades of meaningless seasons, even a little sniff of a playoff game makes this a season a lot more fun. Besides, wasn't NEXT year supposed to be our "target year"? They danged well better not be peaking early.

I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.~~~Annie Savoy-"Bull Durham"

Cerebral_DownTime wrote:It's when I hear people say stuff like "wins for a pitcher is overrated"..... that makes my head explode.

I know what you mean CDT. Wins for a pitcher aren't an overrated stat. It is a an absolutely meaningless stat.

Now let's talk about that siege of Tyre. How many tons of earth do you think that took?

Well, we will just have to agree to disagree on the notion that wins don't mean anything.

This thread has kinda made come to terms with my apathy towards the Tribe and baseball in general. I don't think I give a shit anymore. I don't even really enjoy watching the sport. It's become a boring slog. The fact that I can't get into this team even though they are playing their balls off.... I just think the love is gone. By the looks of the stands for the entire season, I ain't the only one.

As for the far more important subject, Tyre. The initial portion of the causeway required minimal material, since the water was only a few meters deep at the time. The closer they got to the city, the deeper it got. The Tyrians pretty much stopped every attempt made by "The Great", and left him stomping his feet on the beach while his men were being burned, crushed, and shot full of arrows in droves. He didn't take the city until he had a navy. Then it fell and he crucified thousands of Tyrians on the beach and sold tens of thousands into slavery.

peeker643 wrote:One game in October doesn't even come close to doing it for me any more.

No more so than a 10-6 and wildcard loss would for Browns or 44-38 8th seed, first round playoff loss for the Cavs would.

To me, honestly, it's the fucking play in game on Tusday night before the NCAA tournament starts.

Of course, it's not necessarily just one game. And, while wildcard teams have seen some success in the NFL, I have no doubt that wild card teams in MLB are much more successful in the postseason than any of these examples you compare them to. The last couple seeds in the NBA playoffs are lucky to win a game, the last couple at large teams in the NCAAs are lucky to pull off one upset. But wild card teams in MLB make deep playoff runs fairly often.

IN the end, the Indians have played 11 teams with winning records this year. They are .500 or better against 6 of them. They were 36-52 against them which yes is horrible but 6-27 against Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees. That means that against KC, TB, Cincy, Atl, Balt, Wash, Oak, Tex they went 30-25.

You can manipulate this however you want. I think they have close to zero shot at Worls Series. I think it's now better than 50-50 they get to the one game playoff which they can actually win. Chances against Boston if they win that??? Very low.

Spin wrote:I realize that. At the same time we have a team in Cleveland making a playoff run. How long has it been since we had a team making a real run for the playoffs?

Maybe they're catching lightening in a bottle, maybe this is the start of a real build. We don't know. But this is what the fans wanted. This is what we asked for.

I'm overjoyed at the Tribe's season this year. I thought they'd stink. They haven't. Yes, the team has issues and a lot of weaknesses. The starting pitching has been pretty solid and Jimenez has made me look like an idiot which is a good thing. considering they are 46-18 against losing teams, the percentages say they should go 7-3 these last 10 which should get them in.

Spin wrote:Maybe they're catching lightening in a bottle, maybe this is the start of a real build. We don't know. But this is what the fans wanted. This is what we asked for.

I think that's what excites me the most...the possibility that this team is ramping up for a run the next few years. Really, most of the pieces will stay in place for a good while yet, and we only stand to lose a couple of players of any impact over the next 12 months or less. (Masterson excluded from that list...gotta extend him.) The young players who've emerged this year should improve, and the veterans should stabilize (an offseason of rest for Swisher's shoulder wouldn't be the worst thing). I hope this thinking doesn't come back to bite us later, but there's no reason in my mind to think this team won't have the same record--or hopefully better--next season.

Dennis Manoloff ‏@dmansworld474 17 SepI have refused to crush Swisher, as many have, bec. I have a pretty good idea of how injured he is. Can't confirm bec he won't say #indians

The chart is obviously cut off, but the blue line represents Swisher's whiff (swing and miss) percentage against RHP. The yellow line is his whiff percentage against LHP, where he has a 26/29 K/BB ratio. Against RHP, 104/43.

Swisher is slugging .371 batting left handed and .512 batting right handed (Indians face LH SP in 6 of last 10 if probables stay the same). For Swisher's career, .467 SLG LH, .449 RH. Obviously, that includes this season as well. Swisher's LH SLG entering this season was .480. That shoulder is clearly an issue and has been most of the season with his ability to drive the ball.

It's possible that treatment throughout the season has worked or that they've found a way to better manage the pain, but it really wouldn't surprise me to see Swisher have surgery this offseason.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

scrambler wrote:IN the end, the Indians have played 11 teams with winning records this year. They are .500 or better against 6 of them. They were 36-52 against them which yes is horrible but 6-27 against Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees. That means that against KC, TB, Cincy, Atl, Balt, Wash, Oak, Tex they went 30-25.

You can manipulate this however you want. I think they have close to zero shot at Worls Series. I think it's now better than 50-50 they get to the one game playoff which they can actually win. Chances against Boston if they win that??? Very low.

They went a combined 2-11 against the Yankees and Red Sox in the 2007 regular season, which obviously meant jack shit come playoff time. Records mean next to nothing come MLB playoffs.

scrambler wrote:IN the end, the Indians have played 11 teams with winning records this year. They are .500 or better against 6 of them. They were 36-52 against them which yes is horrible but 6-27 against Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees. That means that against KC, TB, Cincy, Atl, Balt, Wash, Oak, Tex they went 30-25.

You can manipulate this however you want. I think they have close to zero shot at Worls Series. I think it's now better than 50-50 they get to the one game playoff which they can actually win. Chances against Boston if they win that??? Very low.

They went a combined 2-11 against the Yankees and Red Sox in the 2007 regular season, which obviously meant jack shit come playoff time. Records mean next to nothing come MLB playoffs.

Well, they did lose to the Red Sox in '07 ALCS.

But bottom line is (for me) that I'm happy with their season, I'm happy theuy appear to have found some sustainable, young pitching and I'll be happy if they reach the post season.

I'll whistle zippity doo da while parading nude down E9th if they win the whole thing.

But I hae no expectations of them advancing deeply this season and I still don't believe they have a dynamic, young player that fans are attached to and want to come out and see.

Should be very interesting down the stretch! The Indians can't complain about the remaining schedules. The Twins at .422 are the best opponent we have to face. All 7 of Tampa Bays remaining opponents have better records than the Twins and 2 are over .500. Also, Tampa Bay has to play their last 6 on the road. Texas has 3 against the woeful Astros and 3 against the Angels who are near .500. All of Texas's remaining games are at home.

If you told me in April, Last week of the season the Indians would control there own destiny for the playoffs, I would be excitied.What does it hurt to enjoy the team while there hot, and in the middle of a damn playoff race. Seriously. Lets beat up some Twinkies and take care of business against the Sox and get ready to host regular season game 163 at the Jake, next monday.

"Cocaine is a hell of a drug" - Originated from a famous skit in Dave Chappelle's "Chappelle's Show". The skit would portray Rick James, usually high on cocaine, preforming doing crazy and stupid things, such as smacking Charlie Murphy in the face. Rick James would frequently explain away his actions by saying "Cocaine is a hell of a drug".

Govbarney wrote:Over/Under on attendance tonight's got to be at least 28,000 right?

No way they see that. I'd set it at 16,752. It's chilly today. People don't want to be cold when they can watch from home. As of now, $10 bleacher seats are still available in all six bleacher sections. Top five rows pretty much wide open. The final 15 rows or so of the lower reserved are all wide open. Almost the entire upper box is open.

I'll be in the third row of the lower reserved. BOGO coupon, two seats for $20. Back on the Porch for the finale tomorrow.

Edit: 16,752 seems like a lot of hope, too.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Govbarney wrote:Over/Under on attendance tonight's got to be at least 28,000 right?

No way they see that. I'd set it at 16,752. It's chilly today. People don't want to be cold when they can watch from home. As of now, $10 bleacher seats are still available in all six bleacher sections. Top five rows pretty much wide open. The final 15 rows or so of the lower reserved are all wide open. Almost the entire upper box is open.

I'll be in the third row of the lower reserved. BOGO coupon, two seats for $20. Back on the Porch for the finale tomorrow.

Edit: 16,752 seems like a lot of hope, too.

I didn't realize it was chilly up there, yeah that will hurt, shouldnt , but it will.

I was at the Friday and Saturday game, the weather seemed to scare allot of people off Friday, but Saturday was a surprisingly good crowed with all the rain we had, looked like Sunday was a good day to at 26,000.

Last I checked allot of tickets where still available for the possible wild card game, I hope that's just because its still really up in the air that it will be a home game/ away game, or no game at all. If it is a home game , and we cant sell it out that will really sting.

"I don't think they're building chemical weapons in Berea. But they might be. I can't say for sure."Chuck Klosterman

Govbarney wrote:I didn't realize it was chilly up there, yeah that will hurt, shouldnt , but it will.

It'll be below 60 by first pitch. Not that that's cold for me, but people will sit on the comfort of their couch.

I was at the Friday and Saturday game, the weather seemed to scare allot of people off Friday, but Saturday was a surprisingly good crowed with all the rain we had, looked like Sunday was a good day to at 26,000.

I was there Friday and Saturday too. Good crowd Saturday. Very into it. Friday's crowd was to be expected with the rain hanging there.

Last I checked allot of tickets where still available for the possible wild card game, I hope that's just because its still really up in the air that it will be a home game/ away game, or no game at all. If it is a home game , and we cant sell it out that will really sting.

Not surprising. I looked for standing room only last night and they were still selling 559 Row R to me when I selected SRO. I already have mine, but I wanted to see how things were going. Pretty slow. I'm not sure if people realize that they will get reimbursed for the games if they don't happen or if the wild card game is on the road. It says it in several places, but the vast majority of people are idiots.

Is what it is. I'm not worried about it anymore. Just win.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

KNR reports that 15,000 tickets have been sold do far for tonight's game. If it wasn't for the anti-walk up pricing plan the Tribe rolled out this season we might have gotten a good crowd tonight, but so far your 16,752 is looking like a good bet.

"I don't think they're building chemical weapons in Berea. But they might be. I can't say for sure."Chuck Klosterman

KNR reports that 15,000 tickets have been sold do far for tonight's game. If it wasn't for the anti-walk up pricing plan the Tribe rolled out this season we might have gotten a good crowd tonight, but so far your 16,752 is looking like a good bet.

It's a clear night anyway. Might be a walk-up. Lower reserve tickets are only $20 online, probably $24 at the door. So it's not like a $25 ticket is upstairs like most nights.

Like I said. I don't care how many people are there. Just win.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

KNR reports that 15,000 tickets have been sold do far for tonight's game. If it wasn't for the anti-walk up pricing plan the Tribe rolled out this season we might have gotten a good crowd tonight, but so far your 16,752 is looking like a good bet.

It's a clear night anyway. Might be a walk-up. Lower reserve tickets are only $20 online, probably $24 at the door. So it's not like a $25 ticket is upstairs like most nights.

Like I said. I don't care how many people are there. Just win.

21083

"I don't think they're building chemical weapons in Berea. But they might be. I can't say for sure."Chuck Klosterman

Big crowd on tap tonight. I was just downtown getting Peeker some tickets and things are selling quickly. We're late in the alphabet and back into the double letters in most lower deck sections. Mezzanine are down to single seats.

I'd say we have a decent shot at 30 tonight.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Big crowd on tap tonight. I was just downtown getting Peeker some tickets and things are selling quickly. We're late in the alphabet and back into the double letters in most lower deck sections. Mezzanine are down to single seats.

skatingtripods wrote:Big crowd on tap tonight. I was just downtown getting Peeker some tickets and things are selling quickly. We're late in the alphabet and back into the double letters in most lower deck sections. Mezzanine are down to single seats.

I'd say we have a decent shot at 30 tonight.

If I had the money to spare, I'd come up and join you.

Tired of being this friggin broke.

You have Paypal? I'll cover you for $30. They need as many there filling the seats tonight as they can get.

skatingtripods wrote:Big crowd on tap tonight. I was just downtown getting Peeker some tickets and things are selling quickly. We're late in the alphabet and back into the double letters in most lower deck sections. Mezzanine are down to single seats.

I'd say we have a decent shot at 30 tonight.

If I had the money to spare, I'd come up and join you.

Tired of being this friggin broke.

You have Paypal? I'll cover you for $30. They need as many there filling the seats tonight as they can get.

I appreciate the offer, but too many moving parts in too short of a time. I'm in Youngstown, so the drive/gas/parking/leaving the wife with two kids under the age of 4 on a moment's notice plays into it as well.

Understood. I'm 3 hours away, work till 6:30 and out of vacation. Maybe it's something that the powers that be might consider for next year. A thread for extra tickets or something so a few might be able to go where they wouldn't have been able to otherwise.......