Members of the Iraqi Governing Council with Iraqi Council President Jalal Talabani, center right, arrive for a press conference in Baghdad, Saturday, Nov 15, 2003. The U.S.-led occupation will end by June after selection of transitional government, the Iraqi Governing Council said Saturday. After that, the U.S. military status would change from an occupation force to a "military presence," the council president said. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)

Photo: ANJA NIEDRINGHAUS

Members of the Iraqi Governing Council with Iraqi Council President...

Iraqis to take charge of country by July / U.S. risks quick power transfer -- before elections back home

2003-11-16 04:00:00 PDT Baghdad -- After hours of heated debate in a riverside mansion Saturday afternoon, U.S. and Iraqi officials announced that a new Iraqi government will take control on July 1, with international recognition and full lawmaking powers -- including the authority to order American soldiers out of the country.

In announcing an end -- technically, at least -- to the American occupation, U.S. officials opted for a dramatic political gamble in Iraq, rather than risk being bogged down in a possible guerrilla war there while facing a presidential campaign back home. "With its assumption of power, the state of occupation will end," Ahmed Chalabi, a prominent member of Iraq's Governing Council, told reporters at the evening news conference called to unveil the plan.

That government, which Chalabi called a "transitional national assembly," will be elected by tribal leaders, local council members and party officials at caucuses that will be organized in each province. The resulting assembly will replace the U.S.-appointed council and will remain in place until a constitution is written and a popularly elected government assumes power.

Policy reversal

Perhaps reflecting a measure of the deep political crisis in Iraq, the deal reversed one of the key principles of President Bush's Iraq plan: that American officials would not leave Iraq until democracy was enshrined in a permanent constitution.

Last week, members of the Iraqi Governing Council bluntly told U.S. officials that the constitution could be written only by people who were elected by a national vote -- an event that would have prolonged American occupation by about 18 months.

For months, that delay did not seem critical, as U.S. officials repeatedly told reporters they would stay "as long as it took." But the suicide bombings, helicopter crashes and mortar and missile attacks has soared since late October, raising fears that American soldiers could get sucked into fighting a full-blown guerrilla campaign. A confidential report by the CIA station chief in Baghdad, delivered to Bush administration officials last Monday and leaked to the press, warned that Iraq could face widespread national resistance without an immediate political deal.

"There is a political dimension to our security strategy, which is as important as our military strategy," said Daniel Senor, an adviser to U.S. administrator Paul Bremer, with whom he traveled to Washington for emergency meetings at the White House. Speaking to a small group of reporters Saturday night, Senor said it had become "crystal clear" to U.S. officials that their previous plan was unworkable. "To win the war on terror, empowering Iraqis is fundamental," he said.

As if to signal that he was serious about ending his control, Bremer sat silently on a chair at the side of the auditorium Saturday night, while the eight Governing Council members who form the body's rotating presidency unveiled the new plan from the same stage where Bremer regularly briefs reporters.

Bremer's administration will disappear on July 1, when the transitional assembly takes control. According to both U.S. and Iraqi officials, the 180, 000 or so occupation troops in Iraq -- about 131,000 of whom are American - will almost certainly stay, but nominally at the invitation of the new government.

"If we need them, we will ask them to stay," said Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, who is the Governing Council's current rotating president for November. "If not, we will respectfully say, 'Bye-bye, dear friends, we are grateful to you for what you have done.' "

Occupation officials said Saturday night that there had been no specific deal about how U.S. soldiers will operate in Iraq after July 1.

Although the atmosphere at the announcement was celebratory, several thorny questions remained about the plan.

American soldiers and U.S. officials have still not accomplished their two most-urgent goals: capturing or killing Saddam Hussein and finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

U.S. and Iraqi officials did not specify who would continue those tasks after July 1. U.S. troops would operate alongside a new Iraqi army, whose ranks could include thousands of former soldiers who were fired shortly after Bremer took over control of the occupation. But it remained unclear Saturday which army would be authorized to arrest insurgents or launch offensives.

Leadership in doubt

Iraqi officials were also vague on who would lead the new transitional government that assumes authority in July -- a serious question in a country under one suffocating leader for decades.

In a surprise answer to a reporter's question, Talabani said: "We will find a good prime minister next month," long before a new government is installed. A new president will be elected once a permanent government is in place in late 2005.

Under the new blueprint, caucuses of local leaders in each province will elect representatives to a national assembly in Baghdad by May 31. By June 30, the assembly will elect an executive body -- the government -- from among themselves. It will take control of the country, and so end the U.S.-led occupation. Because the representatives are to be elected by province, they will presumably match the ethnic make-up of the country, divided among Shiite and Sunni Muslims and Kurds. But there are no requirements that women be included in provincial delegations.

Rather than a constitution, a "basic law" - written by Feb. 1 - will act as a temporary basis for government, and will include Western-style guarantees:

a bill of rights, a free press, human rights and the separation of executive, legislative and judicial powers.

The transitional government will organize elections for a group of constitution writers by March 15, 2005, and national elections for a new government before the end of 2005.

Re-election timing

Bush welcomed the new plan in a statement issued by the White House, calling it "an important step toward realizing the vision of Iraq as a democratic, pluralistic country at peace with its neighbors." The timetable announced Saturday would put Iraqis in at least nominal control five months before Bush faces U.S. voters in his re-election bid.

For Iraqis, the new government will look stunningly different -- both from the Hussein regime with which they lived for 23 years, and from the Governing Council hand-picked by the Americans.

But the new structure could be a serious gamble for U.S. officials: The patchwork legislature will comprise community representatives, potentially bringing to Baghdad a large contingent of religious clerics, who have already begun pushing for new Islamic laws for Iraq.

Occupation officials said that was a risk they had to take, or face creating a government with little legitimacy among Iraqis.

The deal was struck after hours of intense debate between Bremer and the 23 members of the Governing Council.

"We were probably more in a hurry than they were," said Adnan Pachachi, Iraq's former foreign minister from the 1960s, who returned from exile in Britain earlier this year.