Video: Lowering expectations for Friday’s jobs report?

posted at 11:21 am on October 29, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

NRO’s Eliana Johnson picked up on an interesting moment during yesterday’s This Week on ABC. George Stephanopoulos asked former Obama administration economist Austan Goolsbee about the political impact of the jobs report coming up this Friday, just four days before most voters cast their ballots. Goolsbee notes that only “unbelievable outliers … crack through the shell” of the electorate’s consciousness for a single-month’s report. Goolsbee then admits that last month’s jobs report was “artificially too optimistic” — an “unbelievable outlier,” in other words.

So why admit that now? Well, that “unbelievable outlier” is likely to get corrected in this month’s household survey, and that will drive the jobless rate up. Goolsbee argues, in other words, that a jump in the jobless rate won’t impact voter psyche because voters already know the economy is improving regardless of these “unbelievable outliers”:

I think it might be Goolsbee that’s being artificially too optimistic here. Polls show that voters don’t believe that the economy has improved significantly, even after that one-month outlier last month. Mitt Romney has now taken a solid lead on economic issues in every poll, a move that occurred after that too-optimistic report for September. A more negative report for October might end up reinforcing that conviction that we are heading in the wrong direction, especially if the correction puts the jobless rate back above 8%.

The Obama campaign seems pretty worried about that, too, and it’s not surprising that they have surrogates out trying to lower expectations before the jobs report lands on Friday morning.

Blowback

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The number didn’t make any sense in the first place, so a change upward will just confirm what a lot of people were thinking.

Speaking of numbers. . . gas prices here in the Twin Cities have been dropping like a shot in the past week. We’ve gone down from about $3.50 last week to $3.17 this week. Anyone seeing anything similar elsewhere?

A vast vast number of American’s knew from the get go that that krap of a jobs report last month was NOT TRUE! bho/team had it go down so for one month bho would look as if he actually did something?
L

How many times have you heard this on TV just because it’s headed to the East Coast and was a famous book/movie? I’d say the Perfect Storm for Ship Obama is Benghazi, the Jobs Number, and “Bull-Shi–er” all the week before election day.

Uhhhhh, when the unemployed teacher who has $26,000 in student loans, gets one of these new Obama jobs it usually involves the phrase “Do you want fries with that?”

That job doesn’t help Obama.

portlandon on October 29, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Either that or it’s a part-time or temp job. Regular full-time jobs have declined markedly since 2009, and have barely recovered in the last couple years. Almost all the job growth has been part-time, temp, or low paying full-time.

I know I know, good paying full-time jobs are such a throwback to the 50′s to the new Obamaman. So old fashion, so not cool and hip with the times.

Every job added is another vote for Obama. This is why Romney want’s the economy to dive in spite of the looming green shoots.

akaniku on October 29, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Let me set you straight with some facts.

Let’s look at which party controlled a majority (2+ out of 3) of the House, Senate, and Presidency.

The balance of power did not shift on January 20, 2009.

The balance of power shifted on January 3, 2007, when Democrats took control of the House and Senate.

And those Democrats, including new Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi along with Senators Reid, Obama, Biden, Clinton, etc., inherited a RECOVERY, not a recession, from the outgoing Repubican majority.

Bush inherited the Dot Com bust and then got hit with the 9/11/2001 attacks. Both of those hurt our economy. Employment was going down (unemployment going up), revenues going down (less payroll tax revenue), expenditures going up (more unemployment benefits to pay, plus the cost of 2 wars), and deficits were going up.

After the passage of the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts, employment turned around and went up (unemployment went down), revenues went up (by FY 2007, revenues were 44% larger than in FY 2003), expenditures were going down (less unemployment benefits to pay), and deficits were going down.

The last budget passed by a Republican House, Republican Senate, and Republican Senate was in 2006 for Fiscal Year 2007, and it produced a deficit under $161 Billion. In that budget, Bush and a Republican Congress produced a smaller annual deficit than Bill Clinton ever produced with a Democrat Congress. (It was not until Clinton had a Republican Congress that we had a budget surplus).

Democrats inherited a good economy on January 3, 2007. Unemployment in December 2006 was 4.4%. The budget deficit they inherited was less than $161 Billion.

Democrats then tripled the annual deficit in FY 2008. And they tripled it AGAIN in FY 2009. We have now had four straight fiscal years with deficits over $1 Trillion ($1,000 Billion).

It’s not Republicans who drove the economy into the ditch. Republicans produced a recovery in 2004-2006, and the Democrats who inherited that (including Obama, Biden, and Clinton) blew it.

Every job added is another vote for Obama. This is why Romney want’s the economy to dive in spite of the looming green shoots.

akaniku on October 29, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Not when it’s only part-time. Libs have such a hard time with basic ideas. My neighbor was a manager for a company that had to close the area location. He made $70,000/yr. Now he is stuck working a part-time job at $10.50 to keep from losing his home. He voted from Obama in 2008. He sure as hell is not voting for Obama in 2012. As he says, “this guy has no idea what to do.”

I just saw that on Drudge. You’ve gotta be kidding me. Would they rather have the media talk about a lousy jobs report on Friday(assuming it even is a lousy report) or the labor dept burying the report 4 days before a Presidential election?

this is very insightful truths that I have been puzzled that Romney and company haven’t pushed harder. I guess it’s hard to do that as Bush would be seen for his true effectiveness

Add to that the Clinton/Frank/Fanny and Freddie underlying responsibility for the housing crisis
and Bush’s bowing to Nancy and it’s so obvious the dems brought our country down not the fail policies of the past

this 5 trillion tax cut is really a viable economy that leads to federal revenue increases – that’s how an economy works
the dems can’t balance anything unless they are trying to trip up Romney

Call me greedy, but I want PA, MN, WI, NV, MI, IA, and maybe NM, Can you imagine the MSM spin if that were to happen?

Tater Salad on October 29, 2012 at 11:34 AM

they stole the election

audiotom on October 29, 2012 at 11:37 AM

You are speaking of professional journalism audiotom, the epitome of objectivity and truth seeking and dissemination. Surely you wouldn’t think they would ever pass such biased and unfair partisan judgment on the GOP?

I hope Mitt has a strong heart. God only knows what he will learn when he takes over the WH. I also worry about him on the campaign trail.I hope he has plenty of security. I would not put it past some of the “unsavory” connections obama has, to try and show Mitt the “chicago way”.

If it is really bad for them, can they postpone it due to the weather?

txmomof6 on October 29, 2012 at 11:22 AM

It’s a possibility. Nonessential federal employees are on administrative leave today. It probably takes at least two days to process the data. If the Feds are out tomorrow, then they might have to delay it to Monday. However, if they’re back at work tomorrow, then I would expect it out on its regular schedule.

I just saw that on Drudge. You’ve gotta be kidding me. Would they rather have the media talk about a lousy jobs report on Friday(assuming it even is a lousy report) or the labor dept burying the report 4 days before a Presidential election?

Doughboy on October 29, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Who would know they buried the report? The MSM will be too busy applauding BO for lowering the levels of the ocean as he personally runs Sandy out of town.

If it is really bad for them, can they postpone it due to the weather?

txmomof6 on October 29, 2012 at 11:22 AM

If they can, they will.

They will not, however, delay the number of first-time applicants for unemployment. Instead of the usual 385,000, it could be in the sub-300,000 range with the lull in filing during the storm shut-down. THAT number will come out on Thursday, and touted as a success.

Delaying the release would be a pr disaster for Obama. The entire Romney team could be out touting how they have heard from those in the know how bad the numbers would be and that the Obama administration was simply hiding the number in a political move. There could be no response from the Obama campaign to refute the allegation effectively because it would be obvious to all.

Wait – the Reports have been horrible every month since February 2009, forty four bad reports, and the very last one to be issued days before the election is what is going to be the thing that helps voters’ make their decision?

My economics consultant goes nuts on the comments which are passed off as reasonable conclusions on economic policy in the media and Austan Goolsbee is an example of the lower quality in the genre. Not as bad as the NYT but close.

Fox features this guy frequently and often allows him to offer his nonsense without any challenge.

Half of the posters on threads like this one could do a day’s research and offer better analysis and courses of action that he selects.

The proof of his folly is the disaster we have in our economy right now. “Right Now”, of course, is three years after President Obama took control. And the green jobs, social programs and top to bottom failures in the economy are so bad that every citizen sees it and knows that something isn’t right.

Of course, we have our POTUS placing blame on “Wall Street” when the desperation to invest in an economy not totally poisoned by socialism, or just coming to their own like the BRICK nations, is the only thing keeping the morons running the country from supervising a ‘third world’ type mess.

I would love it if someone could ask Austam where he intends to find a captive industry or a nation like Germany to bail us out after the bill for the “investments” and “regulations” and “human rights” of his bosses comes in.

We have too many differences with China and one day they will act like a loan shark.

Maybe it is to be found in all those energy jobs which came up like weeds in a garden, despite the best efforts of the current administration.

I would love it if someone could ask Austam where he intends to find a captive industry …

Energy companies. Heard it today on my local pacifica broadcast. The new push is to isolate energy firms like was done to companies that did business in S. Africa 25 years ago. “Exxxon has enough carbon inventory to cause 2 degrees of temperature rise” and other such rot was being discussed. They are still counting on carbon swaps, climate change concerns and other schemes to balance the global disparities they whine about.

Speaking of numbers. . . gas prices here in the Twin Cities have been dropping like a shot in the past week. We’ve gone down from about $3.50 last week to $3.17 this week. Anyone seeing anything similar elsewhere?

Yes. Here in St. Louis the price is around $3.08. Two weeks ago it was in the $3.40 range.

Lol! They had to cook the numbers so bad they know they’ll look like the Frauds they are, so, don’t give out the numbers! The Moron eSTAB Repubs won’t know what to do and all will be well after Nov.6th. Once again, they’ve outsmarted the eSTAB repubs and all they can do is look like whiny idiots! Way to go Rove & co.
ADDENDUM on How to take on the Obama Jihadi Media & Win: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

Call me greedy, but I want PA, MN, WI, NV, MI, IA, and maybe NM, Can you imagine the MSM spin if that were to happen?

Tater Salad on October 29, 2012 at 11:34 AM

The only way NV breaks for Hussein is if SEIU rigs the machines here in Vegas area, no way around it. All 3 Congress candidates (1 Senate and 2 House) are safely in leads, anywhere from 5 to 11% depending on seat, and yet news media somehow thinks same people will then vote for Hussein. Its all based on lies, lies and more lies in hopes that people will believe this crap and won’t vote.

Yesterday paid more attention to cars around us, a good number are either current or ex military judging by stickers and license plates and I just can’t imagine how any of them can vote Hussein after Benghazi no matter their prior political affiliation before.

Let’s see, last week a decrease in unemployment of 3% causing the Obama Admin to cheer. Then we found out that CA had not reported data. What data has not been reported, but one wonders. And now a delay in this week’s report. Funny that!