Internet will out of addresses in 1 year

The Internet will run out of Internet addresses in about 1 year's time, we were told today by John Curran, president and CEO of the American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN). The same thing was also stated recently by Vint Cerf, Google's Chief Internet Evangelist.

The main reason for the concern? There's an explosion of data about to happen to the Web - thanks largely to sensor data, smart grids, RFID and other Internet of Things data. Other reasons include the increase in mobile devices connecting to the Internet and the annual growth in user-generated content on the Web.

Why a New Internet Protocol is Needed

Currently the Web largely uses IPv4, Internet Protocol version 4. Each IPv4 address is limited to a 32-bit number, which means there are a maximum of just over 4 billion unique addresses. IPv6 is the next generation Internet Protocol and uses a 128-bit address, so it supports a vastly larger number of unique addresses. Enough, in fact, to give every person on the planet over 4 billion addresses!

John Curran from ARIN, the non-profit responsible for managing the distribution of Internet addresses in the North American region, told ReadWriteWeb that of the approximately 4 billion IPv4 addresses available, all but 6% have already been allocated. Curran expects the final 6% to be allocated over the coming year.

This is largely an issue that ISP (Internet Service Providers) and telecoms carriers need to deal with. However content service providers, including large-scale Internet companies like Google and Facebook, also need to ensure that the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 takes place. Curran explained that a content company like Google (for example its YouTube operation) will need to work with its ISP to transport the content via IPv6 as well as IPv4.

This transition is happening "slowly," says Curran. But he warns that "deployment is where we're behind."

Google, Facebook & Others Making Good Progress

John Curran told us that large carriers like Verizon and Comcast have announced trial IPv6 activity. Curran also noted that new Internet of Things initiatives that use sensor networks, power grids, RFID and similar technologies, are being directed to use IPv6 and not IPv4.

There is also solid support from the big Internet companies. Curran said that Google has already put the majority of its services onto IPv6. Declaring its support for IPv6 on a special webpage, Google states that "IPv6 is essential to the continued health and openness of the Internet [and] will enable innovation and allow the Internet's continued growth."

In June, Google held a Google IPv6 Implementors Conference. At that event, Facebook announced that it had begun to use IPv6.

In his opening remarks to the conference, Google's Chief Internet Evangelist Vint Cerf urges ISPs to move to IPv6, so that a "black market" for Internet addresses won't occur.

Another Y2K?

Critics view some of the push for IPv6 as Chicken Little 'the sky is falling' talk. Commented @ajbraun, a self-described technology leader at Sony Ericsson, via Twitter: "We should call this "IPv6: Y2K II." An obvious issue for 10 years, we will panic at the end and finally much ado about nothing."

Others see a technology called NAT (Network Address Translation) as a solution - it maps multiple addresses to a single IP address, thus reducing the amount of unique IP addresses required. However this is at best a temporary solution. Google argued back in 2008 that NAT and similar technologies "complicate the Internet's architecture, pose barriers to the development of new applications, and run contrary to network openness principles."

Whether or not there is Y2K-style fear mongering, the bottom line is that IPv6 is a much larger platform for the coming Internet of Things. So one way or another, the move will have to be made.

The current pool of Internet addresses is running out with the last five blocks set to be distributed to regional agencies.
In the early hours of February 1, the organisation that oversees net addresses in the Asia Pacific region put in a request for more.

When these are handed over, the central pool of net addresses will be down to its last five blocks of 16 million addresses each.

And when those five run out in the autumn there will be no more of the current generation of addresses available.
The request for addresses had been made by the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNic), as it has almost come to the end of its current allocation of IP Version 4 (IPv4) addresses.

A policy drawn up by the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers states that when only five blocks of addresses remain they will be quickly distributed to regional agencies.

A ceremony to mark the handing over of the last five blocks of addresses, known as /8s, is set to take place in mid-March.
Drawn up in the 1970s, IPv4 has room for about 4.3 billion addresses. The rapid growth of the net has quickly depleted that stock and the entire address space is expected to be exhausted by September 2011.
A replacement scheme, IPv6, has been drawn up that has trillions of addresses available but progress towards using it has been slow.

"The future growth and innovation of the internet is now reliant on deployment of IPv6," the BBC quoted Axel Pawlik, managing director of Ripe, which oversees net address in Europe, as saying.
"It is now more vital than ever that ISPs, organisations, governments and all other Internet stakeholders begin to deploy IPv6," he stated.

What does ISPs need to do to implement IPv6. Should they change the infrastructure or the underlying software?. Can any IT guru shed some light.

Click to expand...

Its going to take more than just ISPs to implement IPv6 over the space. Web companies, ISPs, hardware vendors and operating system are required to join forces in order to make this transition smoother & faster. Stubbornness of any of these industry players will delay the implementation. 'Collaboration' is the key for ISPs now.

Before implementation, major industry leaders need to make sure that their services are ready for transition. For example, Web companies need to offer their applications over IPv6, hardware and home gateway manufacturers may need to update firmware, operating system vendors need to implement specific software updates, ISPs need to make IPv6 connectivity available to their users, backbone providers may need to establish IPv6 peering with each other.

There are also several obstacles like some legacy systems which can not be upgraded. So in such case, they may require to setup an application level proxy that can support both IPv4 and IPv6 for the remaining lifetime of that system. We have like entered 'gawky' phase of networks being between old & new protocols. They might co-exist for years to come.

Besides, ISP/Organizations first need security mechanisms in place because currently IPv6 traffic is being tunneled over IPv4 connections & hence they appear like regular IPv4 packets. Many curious hackers are making use of such loopholes Hence, we require IPv6-aware firewalls, intrusion detection systems to handle such unwanted troubles.

Confident deployment of IPv6 still has its own technical risks. Besides just change in address size, ancillary shifts will be required compared to IPv4. Some unanticipated problems may rise since existing applications were designed, debugged based on IPv4. Thus this ipv6 implementation is going to be lengthier than expected.

Therefore IMO in the meantime, we should convince corporations like FBI to release their even half of the current 91 legacy class A sized blocks of surplus IP addresses to hold off the depletion of the IPv4 addresses for coming several years...

The Internet Assigned Numbers Authority formally announced final distribution of IPv4 addresses today, marking a critical turning point in the Internetâ€™s history. The next major distribution of addresses will come from the next generation of Internet Protocols, IPv6.

The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), the Number Resource Organization, the Internet Architecture Board, and the Internet Society announced the distribution at a news conference in Miami.

The move was expected after IANA, an arm of ICANN, distributed two blocks to the regional Internet registry for the Asia-Pacific region earlier this week, leaving IANA with five slash-eight blocks. ICANN's plan all along was to distribute the last five blocks to the five regional registries.

Despite the distribution, there are still plenty of unused IPv4 addresses in the hands of the regional registries, service providers and other organizations. The U.S. government reportedly has a large supply.

Essentially, the warehouse is empty, but the stores still have plenty in stock.

Nevertheless, the distribution is significant because it heralds the shift to IPv6, with its nearly infinite number of addresses, capability for new features and attendant security challenges.

The Obama administration has given agencies guidelines and deadlines for preparing their networks for IPv6. Although some progress has been made, overall adoption has been slow, and few organizations are using IPv6. The Office of Management and Budget has ordered civilian agencies to prepare public-facing servers and services for IPv6 traffic by the end of fiscal 2012, and agencies must have internal IP applications and systems ready by the end of fiscal 2014.

In announcing the final distribution of IPv4 addresses, ICANN officials noted the historic significance but assured reporters that it does not represent the IPocalypse.

â€œThis is a major turning point in the ongoing development of the Internet,â€ ICANN President and CEO Rod Beckstrom said. â€œNo one was caught off guard by this. The Internet technical community has been planning for IPv4 depletion for some time. But it means the adoption of IPv6 is now of paramount importance since it will allow the Internet to continue its amazing growth and foster the global innovation weâ€™ve all come to expect.â€

The IPv6 infrastructure will get a big test in June when the Internet Society holds World IPv6 Day. On that day, a group of some of the largest Internet traffic generators will use IPv6 connections in an experiment to see how it works on a large scale.