OPEC’s Oil Output Will Actually Rise Into November Cap

From OilPrice.com: Despite OPEC’s decision on Wednesday to scale back production, the oil trade bloc will produce oil at record rates in September, according to the results of an industry survey conducted by Reuters.

Led by Saudi Arabia, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed — for the first time since 2008 — to limit their outputs. After an informal meeting in Algiers, the group said the target rate would be somewhere in between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day (bpd).

Figuring out who has to cut output and by how much from the bloc’s 33.53 million bpd levels in August will be OPEC’s task during its 30 November meeting in the headquarters in Vienna.

“The agreement still leaves hard and difficult negotiations for the individual caps to be set,” Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at SEB, told Reuters. “Now, with an OPEC curb on the cards for the first time in eight years, Brent crude is not even able to lift above $50. At least not yet.”

Reuters says it bases its survey on shipping data supplied by external sources, Thomson Reuters flows data, and other information provided by corporate sources from the industry. OPEC and related consulting firms also contributed to the survey.

Iraq and Libya led the oil production increases forecasted by experts in September. Libya sent off its first shipment of oil from the Ras Lanuf port earlier this month, while Iraq restarted jointly exporting crude with Kurdistan from the oil-rich Kirkuk.

Iran and Saudi Arabia mostly maintained their August outputs after setting all-time records in the first half of this year in production growth and output, respectively.

The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE:USO) closed at $10.93 on Friday, up $0.06 (+0.55%). Year-to-date, the largest fund tied to WTI crude oil has fallen 0.64%.