I agree with your analysis for the most part except I am not sure if the Russians will survive puberty in the ladies AND in the pairs - the Italians actually have gone up and down. 2012 - 2013 was their chance at the bronze and they failed miserably.

Sotnikova, Tuk are post puberty
Julia, Elena arent doing bad either and they are still way better than your glorious Osmond
who you mentioned will crush all the Russian ladies who will not survive all puberty

I guess Osmond will be there too next quad if she stops landing on her butt all the time

on a good side: what I'm expecting next quad after hopefully a retirement of Chan and V/M for good
for 2014-2018

Canada : well other than their veteran skaters they have no depth, so I don't know
W/P, MT/M , Reynolds, or D/R who is Canada's best Pair since the deplorable S/P

Japan: Men should be fine, maybe T/T can develop next quad for their pairs
ladies might have a bit of a depleted field in Japan until after 2018 where
most promising juniors will now be senior for 2022 Japan will be back

Why does everybody assume Chan will retire after this season, especially if he wins the OGM? I figure it started with a line or two from his interviews pre Vancouver Olympics.

Chan is only 22 and he has evolved since 4 years ago. He might have thought winning an OGM was the ultimate for an athlete, especially for a Canadian male figure skater but it seems to me his mind has evolved and he is much more devoted to figure skating now with a desire to make an impact in the sport. He will be just 23 and if he has indeed cultivated the relaxed and confident mindset, he may just be more challenged than ever to raise the bar. He may want to know how far he can go and much much he can achieve and dominate. He may enjoy the experience and find it fun.

The main reasons he may retire would be for his higher education and his stated wish to retire at the top. So it depends much on what he considers his career peak.

I say there are quite a few motivational factors for Chan to continue after this quad, whether or not he will compete in the next Olympics.

Why does everybody assume Chan will retire after this season, especially if he wins the OGM? I figure it started with a line or two from his interviews pre Vancouver Olympics.

Chan is only 22 and he has evolved since 4 years ago. He might have thought winning an OGM was the ultimate for an athlete, especially for a Canadian male figure skater but it seems to me his mind has evolved and he is much more devoted to figure skating now with a desire to make an impact in the sport. He will be just 23 and if he has indeed cultivated the relaxed and confident mindset, he may just be more challenged than ever to raise the bar. He may want to know how far he can go and much much he can achieve and dominate. He may enjoy the experience and find it fun.

I say there are quite a few motivational factors for Chan to continue after this quad, whether or not he will compete in the next Olympics.

I will look out for head explosions.

you make it sound like Chan is a groundbreaking skater

with Yan and Yuzu he will be feeling the pressure, he doesn't have the mindset of Yuna to start with
any medal in Sochi will do for him, what does Cahn want to prove anyways ? he is not some sort of a legendary skater
that needs to stick around for another quad, next quad you will be seeing most men jump 3 quads in the LP

Chan wont be coming back next year same for Virtue and Moir
which I dont mind tbh

I hope Ashley sticks around post Sochi. she's made an amazing improvement and has come such a long way in the past 2-3 years (she used to dbl foot EVERYTHING), she could win worlds more than once after the likes of Carolina, Mao and Kim are gone.