GLOBAL WARMING

Saturday, June 25, 2011

The cause of global warming - Since known science regarding climate, scientists have learned that in fact the Earth's climate is always changing. From the study of ice ages in the past indicate that the climate may change by itself, and changed radically. What causes it? Meteor falls? Variations in hot sun? Volcano eruption that caused the cloud of smoke? Changes in wind direction due to changes in the structure of Earth and ocean currents? Or because of the changing composition of the air? Or other reasons?

Until the new to the 19th century, the study of the climate began to learn about the content of the gas in the atmosphere, referred to as greenhouse gases, which can affect climate on Earth. What is a greenhouse gas?

Actually known as the 'greenhouse gas', is an effect, in which the molecules in our atmosphere acts like a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect itself, should be a natural effect to keep the Earth's surface temperature is at normal temperature, about 30 ° C, or if not, then of course there will be no life on Earth.

In about 1820, father Fourier discovered that the atmosphere was highly intruded (permeable) by sunlight entering the Earth's surface, but not all of the light emitted into the Earth's surface can be reflected out, infra-red radiation that should be reflected trapped, with Thus the Earth's atmosphere trap heat (the principle greenhouse).

Thirty years later, Mr. Tyndall found that the types of gases that trap heat are primarily carbon-dioxide and water vapor, and the molecules that finally named as a greenhouse gas, as we know it today. Arrhenius later showed that if the concentration of carbon-dioxide doubled, then the increase in surface temperature becomes very significant.

Since the discovery of Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius, scientists increasingly understand how greenhouse gases absorb the radiation, allowing to make a better calculation for linking greenhouse gas concentrations and increased temperatures. If carbon-dioxide concentrations are doubled, then the temperature may increase to 1 ° C.

However, the atmosphere was not as simple model calculation, the reality of raising the temperature can be more than 1 ° C because there are factors such as, say, changes in cloud amount, reflecting different heat between land and ocean, changes in water vapor content of air, surface changes Earth, either because of land clearing, surface changes, or other causes, natural or due to human actions. The evidence suggests, the existing atmosphere is getting warmer and the atmosphere holds more moisture, and store more heat, warming strengthening of the standard calculation.

Since 2001, studies on global climate dynamics indicate that at least, the world has experienced warming of more than 3 ° C since pre-industrial era, that's if you can suppress the concentration of greenhouse gases to stabilize at 430 ppm CO2e (ppm = part per million = per million of CO2 equivalent - which states the ratio of the number of molecules of CO2 per one million air dry). To be sure, since 1900, the Earth has experienced warming of 0.7 ° C.

Then, if indeed warming, as it is called; which became known as global warming, (or in terms of popular English language, we refer to as Global Warming): Is it an inevitable natural phenomenon? Or is there some reason that exhibited significantly, so it became 'popular' as it is today? Is it because Al Gore with his film "An Inconvenient Truth" to popularizing the global warming? Surely not that simple.

Need international cooperation to be able to say that indeed humans who became the main cause of global warming. Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in 2007, showed that the global average since 1750 of human activity causing the warming. Changes in the abundance of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to solar radiation and the overall energy balance of Earth's surface affect the climate system. In a quantity that is expressed as radiative Forcing as a gauge whether the global climate be hot or cold (positive values ​​in red states or cause to be warmer, and the blue the reverse), it was found that was the result of human activity (anthropogenic) is a key driver of the occurrence global warming (Gb.1).

In recent years, global warming has been the subject of a great deal of political controversy. As scientific knowledge has grown, this debate is moving away from whether humans are causing warming and toward questions of how best to respond.

Signs that the Earth is warming are recorded all over the globe. The easiest way to see increasing temperatures is through the thermometer records kept over the past century and a half. Around the world, the Earth's average temperature has risen more than 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) over the last century, and about twice that in parts of the Arctic.

This doesn’t mean that temperatures haven't fluctuated among regions of the globe or between seasons and times of day. But if you average out the temperature all over the world over the course of a year, you see that temperatures have been creeping upward.

Although we can't look at thermometers going back thousands of years, we do have some records that help us figure out what temperatures and concentrations were like in the distant past. For example, trees store information about the climate in the place where they live. Each year, trees grow thicker and form new rings. In warmer and wetter years, the rings are thicker. Old trees and wood can tell us about conditions hundreds or even several thousands of years ago.

Keys to the past are also buried under lakes and oceans. Pollen, creatures, and particles fall to the bottom of oceans and lakes each year, forming sediments. Sediments preserve all these bits and pieces, which contain a wealth of information about what was in the air and water when they fell. Scientists reveal this record by inserting hollow tubes into the mud to collect sediment layers going back millions of years.

For a direct look at the atmosphere of the past, scientists drill cores through the Earth's polar ice sheets. Tiny bubbles trapped in the gas are actually pieces of the Earth's past atmosphere, frozen in time. That's how we know that the concentrations of greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are higher than they've been for hundreds of thousands of years.

Computer models help scientists to understand the Earth's climate, or long-term weather patterns. Models also allow scientists to make predictions about the future climate. Basically, models simulate how the atmosphere and oceans absorb energy from the sun and transport it around the globe. Factors that affect the amount of the sun's energy reaching Earth's surface are what drive the climate in these models, as in real life. These include things like greenhouse gases, particles in the atmosphere (such as from volcanoes), and changes in energy coming from the sun itself.

It's almost a point of pride with climatologists. Whenever someplace is hit with a heat wave, drought, killer storm or other extreme weather, scientists trip over themselves to absolve global warming. No particular weather event, goes the mantra, can be blamed on something so general. Extreme weather occurred before humans began loading up the atmosphere with heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. So this storm or that heat wave could be the result of the same natural forces that prevailed 100 years ago—random movements of air masses, unlucky confluences of high- and low-pressure systems—rather than global warming.

This pretense has worn thin. The frequency of downpours and heat waves, as well as the power of hurricanes, has increased so dramatically that "100-year storms" are striking some areas once every 15 years, and other once rare events keep returning like a bad penny. As a result, some climatologists now say global warming is to blame. Rising temperatures boost the probability of extreme weather, says Tom Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center and lead author of a new report from the Bush administration's Climate Change Science Program; that can "lead to the type of events we are seeing in the Midwest." There, three weeks of downpours have caused rivers to treat their banks as no more than mild suggestions. Think of it this way: if once we experienced one Noachian downpour every 20 years, and now we suffer five, four are likely man-made.

It's been easier to connect global warming to rising temperatures than to extreme weather events—and even the former hasn't been easy. Only in this decade have "attribution" studies managed to finger greenhouse gases as the chief cause of the rising mercury, rather than a hotter sun or cyclical changes. (The last two produce a different pattern of climate change than man-made warming does.) Now the same "whatdunit?" techniques are being applied to droughts, downpours, heat waves and powerful hurricanes. "We can look at climate-model simulations and likely attribute [specific extreme weather] to human activity," says Gerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The Midwest, for instance, suffered three weeks of intense rain in May and June, with more than five inches falling on some days. That brought a reprise of the area's 1993 flooding, which was thought to be a once-in-500-years event. The proximate cause was the western part of the jet stream dipping toward the Gulf of Mexico, then rising toward Iowa—funneling moisture from the gulf to the Midwest, says meteorologist Bill Gallus of (the very soggy) Iowa State University. The puzzle, he says, is why the trough kept reforming in the west, creating a rain-carrying conveyor belt that, like a nightmarish version of a Charlie Chaplin movie, wouldn't turn off. One clue is that global warming has caused the jet stream to shift north. That has brought, and will continue to bring, more tropical storms to the nation's north, and may push around the jet stream in other ways as well.

Global warming has left its clearest fingerprint on heat waves. Since the record scorcher of 1998, the average annual temperatures in the United States in six of the past 10 years have been among the hottest 10 percent on record. Climatologists predict that days so hot they now arrive only once every 20 years will, by midcentury, hit the continental United States once every three years. Scientists also discern a greenhouse fingerprint in downpours, which in the continental United States have increased 20 percent over the past century. In a warmer world, air holds more water vapor, so when cloud conditions are right for that vapor to form droplets, more precipitation falls. Man-made climate change is also causing more droughts on top of those that occur naturally: attribution studies trace droughts such as that gripping the Southwest to higher sea-surface temperatures, especially in the Pacific. Those can fluctuate naturally, as they did when they caused the severe droughts of the 1930s and 1950s. But they are also rising due to global warming, causing a complicated cascade of changes in air circulation that shuts down rainfall.

Hurricanes have become more powerful due to global warming. For every rise of 1 degree Celsius (most of it man-made) in surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, rainfall from a tropical storm increases 6 to 18 percent and wind speeds of the strongest hurricanes increase by up to 8 percent. As the new report acknowledged, "the strongest storms are becoming even stronger." Atmospheric conditions that bring severe thunderstorms (with hail two inches across and wind gusts of at least 70 miles an hour) and tornadoes with a force of F2 or greater have been on the rise since the 1970s, occurring about 8 percent more often every decade. Get used to it, and don't blame Mother Nature.

The Earth as an ecosystem is changing, attributable in great part to the effects of globalization and man. More carbon dioxide is now in the atmosphere than has been in the past 650,000 years. This carbon stays in the atmosphere, acts like a warm blanket, and holds in the heat — hence the name ‘global warming.’

The reason we exist on this planet is because the earth naturally traps just enough heat in the atmosphere to keep the temperature within a very narrow range – this creates the conditions that give us breathable air, clean water, and the weather we depend on to survive. Human beings have begun to tip that balance. We’ve overloaded the atmosphere with heat-trapping gasses from our cars and factories and power plants. If we don’t start fixing the problem now, we’re in for devastating changes to our environment. We will experience extreme temperatures, rises in sea levels, and storms of unimaginable destructive fury. Recently, alarming events that are consistent with scientific predictions about the effects of climate change have become more and more commonplace.

Global warming is the current rise in the average temperature of Earth's oceans and atmosphere and its projected continuation. The scientific consensus is that global warming is occurring and was initiated by human activities, especially those that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuels.[2][3] This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of national or international standing.[4][5][6][A] During the 20th century, global surface temperature increased by about 0.74 °C (1.33 °F)[7][B] Using computer models of the climate system based on six greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that global surface temperature is likely to rise 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) by 2100.[7][8]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[9] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.[10] In a 4°C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.[11]

The Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference".[12] As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol.[13] The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan. Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. According to a recent Gallup poll, people in most countries are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes. The major exception is the U.S., where just under half the US population (47%) attributes global warming primarily to natural causes despite overwhelming scientific opinion to the contrary.

Monday, May 16, 2011

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