New York Yankees still face tough climb to playoffs

Just when we were ready to pronounce the New York Yankees dead on arrival, along came pinch-hitter Jason Giambi.

Two-run homer in the seventh, walkoff single in the ninth, and there went Boston Red Sox hopes for a sweep of their last visit to Yankee Stadium II.

Of course, the Yankees probably are dead, anyway, because who knew - they certainly didn't - that the Tampa Bay Rays would be the team that could keep them out of the playoffs for the first time since 1993?

Ah, but before we kiss off the Pinstripers, maybe we should listen to our e-mail. A missive from Walter Krzeminski, an Easthampton-based baseball guru, points out that the Yankees of 1995 stood three games under .500 with 32 to play when they put on a 25-7 charge that netted them the wild card spot.

OK, but those were the Yankees of Jack McDowell, David Cone and the young Andy Pettitte, with John Wetteland as last man out of the bullpen.

The point is, the Yankees who made that September sprint 13 years ago had the pitching. The Yankees of today haven't had enough of it, which means they're not likely to win 24 of their last 29.

That's the blistering pace they would need to reach 95 victories, which might be the basic requirement for a playoff spot.

The Red Sox also have 29 games left. OK, what if they were to stumble home with a 15-14 record? In that improbable case, the Yankees would have to go 21-8 to tie them. That's a .724 winning percentage - a pace the Yankees haven't been anywhere near all season.

If the above scenario did happen, the Sox and Yankees would tie at 92-70, a record which could leave them both out of the playoffs, topped by the No. 2 team in American League Central.

The notion that the Red Sox might collapse in the stretch just doesn't compute. With Paul Byrd as a key addition to the rotation, they should be able to play well enough to net a playoff spot.

For one thing, the schedule favors them. Of their remaining games, 20 will be played at Fenway Park, where they have been very hard to beat since their home-opening day, April 8.

The Bosox have a 43-18 Fenway record, a .705 winning percentage which suggests that they're capable of going 14-6 at home in September.

Of course, the Sox do have to worry about Josh Beckett, who could have an elbow problem. If he's out of the rotation, the team still seems to have enough to hold together in the stretch. If he's lost for the postseason, well, that could be crucial, indeed.

As for those Yankees, Mr. Giambi kept from fading out of sight Thursday, but the clock is running, and a 24-5 finish, or thereabouts, seems way too much to ask.