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NBA Picks

Knicks -1.5 vs. Magic for NBA Picks

The New York Knicks didn’t pull the trigger
at the trade deadline. That might not matter on Friday night when they visit an
Orlando Magic team that isn’t beating the NBA odds against losing teams.

Jason’s
record on his early NBA picks for 2013-14, up to February 20 inclusive:

64-53-1
ATS

18-13
Totals

All that talk for nothing. The New York
Knicks (21-33 SU, 23-31 ATS) are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot in the Eastern
Conference, and they could use an upgrade at point guard. But they didn’t pick
one up before Thursday’s NBA trading deadline – not Kyle Lowry, not Jeff
Teague, not even Andre Miller. Unless the Knicks decide to sign a veteran off
the scrap heap, this is the team they’ll go to war with for the rest of the
season.

It’s probably a good enough team to beat
the Orlando Magic (16-40 SU, 23-33 ATS) on Friday. The Magic also decided to
stand pat, rather than make themselves worse in the race to the bottom of the
Eastern standings. But they’re still pretty bad, and the NBA lines have Orlando
getting 1.5 points at home with a total of 195.5. Let’s get these wagons in a
circle.

[gameodds]5/256164/?r-1=43-19/us[/gameodds]

Dear
Prudence

The Knicks have a history of acquiring
short-term gain for long-term pain. But this time around, they just weren’t
willing to give up Tim Hardaway Jr. (14. PER) along with a draft pick. They
weren’t all that eager to lose Iman Shumpert (9.6 PER), either, but Shumpert
was reportedly on the trading block – until he sprained his left MCL in
Wednesday’s 98-91 win over the New Orleans Pelicans (–3.5 at home). It’s only a
mild sprain as it turns out, but Shumpert is still unavailable to face the
Magic.

Amar’e Stoudemire (17.3 PER) also sat out
against the Pellies, but it was the second of back-to-back games, and we can
expect him to return for Friday’s matchup (7:00 p.m. ET). We’re not so sure
when to expect Kenyon Martin (12.3 PER) to come back from his sore ankle. Could
be on Friday, though. As for Andrea Bargnani (14.6 PER), he’s not due back from
his torn elbow until sometime in March.

With all these frontcourt injuries, New
York has been forced to use a smaller lineup with Carmelo Anthony (24.8 PER)
starting at power forward. Anthony himself has thrived in this role, scoring 42
points against New Orleans, but this also emphasizes how weak the Knicks are at
the perimeter. Either Hardaway or J.R. Smith (12.0 PER) will have to take
Shumpert’s place in the starting five, leaving almost nothing in reserve –
unless New York’s willing to give minutes to Beno Udrih (12.5 PER) or Toure’
Murry (11.1 PER). They’re the worst two players on the roster in terms of
Simple Rating, with Udrih at minus-8.7 and Murry at minus-9.6.

Again, this might not matter all that much
against Orlando. There’s some quality on this team, specifically Arron Afflalo
(17.4 PER) and Nikola Vucevic (18.3 PER), along with promising rookie Victor
Oladipo (13.4 PER). Earlier this month, the Magic pulled off back-to-back
upsets at home over the Oklahoma City Thunder (–9.5) and the Indiana Pacers
(–8), the top two seeds in either conference. Presto~!

Unfortunately for Magic supporters, their
heroes vanish into thin air when playing the NBA’s lesser lights. Orlando is
coming off road losses against the Milwaukee Bucks (+3) and Cleveland Cavaliers
(–5.5), falling to 11-21 ATS this year against losing teams. The Knicks, by
comparison, are 14-14 ATS against teams below .500, and just 8-17 ATS versus
winning teams. Which makes perfect sense. New York has the talent to beat worse
teams, while tanking Orlando has less incentive to roll over against elite
opponents. I expect this dynamic to play out on Friday, and just for good
measure, Glen Davis (13.9 PER) is questionable for the Magic with a sore
Achilles tendon. Relax, big guy. Take a rest.

Special
update: The Magic are reportedly working on a buy-out of Davis’ contract.