We had a photo-shoot today at the mag. One of the models — that is, one of the people who were getting their photo taken because they were being featured in our next issue — was a blonde 26-year-old female. Another one of the models was a 28-year-old brunette. Neither was ugly. “Dude, that blonde is so incredibly hot,” one of my office friends said to me as we creeped covetously from a dark corner. “No, sir, she’s not. The brunette, on the other hand…” “You’re an idiot.” “LOL, why? It’s kind of subjective, don’t you think?” “Not really, the blonde has boobs, a nice bod (he did say bod), a cute face — she’s the definition of hot.” Eventually, after some high-horsing from me on the subjectivity of beauty, we agreed to poll the rest of the guys in the office, and whichever guy’s girl got more votes, he’d get $20 (I work in a weird place). This, friends, is where my metaphor goes off track, and where I start comparing guys like Everth Cabrera to beautiful women.

The beauty of keepers is mixing standard fantasy analysis and our perception of how we think baseball players will be perceived by fantasy players. It’s not just, “this guy mashes I want to pick him,” it’s “this guy mashes, how much will my enemies be willing to pay for his mashing?” I agreed on our “girl bet” because I thought that most of the guys in the office would perceive the brunette as prettier — I applied a value to her because of what I thought others would think about her. Unfortunately I screwed up, but fortunately (or maybe not) I study fantasy baseball a lot more than I do girls, so let’s just delve into keepers before I stare at the $20 void in my impecunious wallet and wallow in my geeky lameness. That is, it’s fantasy keepers time.

Everth is the brunette who then turned into the blonde, then who most thought was the brunette, and will then be considered blonde later. Get it? No numbers game here.

I wrote about Cabrera here, where I praised him for his increase in power, super speed, and overall improvement as a baseball and fantasy player.

“Cabrera’s striking out less, walking more, and is hitting more line drives. Oddly, his HR/FB is higher than ever?” I wonder why.

You can safely assume that Cabrera’s going to be suspended this year — and doesn’t really have much of a reason to appeal, unless he’s hoping to fight that losing “save face” battle that everyone sees right through — but you can’t safely assume that that’ll plummet Cabrera’s stock going into next year.

Cabrera’s main value is in his speed, obviously, an attribute that most people won’t expect to decline via stopping steroid usage, PED injection — whatever you want to call it (if you even think he did use any illegal substances at all). After seeing his improvement in the other facets of his game, and everyone still believing in his speed, Cabrera won’t be perceived as having any lower value than he had going into this year, and I think he’ll be perceived significantly higher. “I pay for his speed, the rest are cherries on top,” people will say, expecting at least some of the new production to be real.

If I had Cabrera and could spare the spot, I’d stash him next year as he’ll still increase in value significantly. I’d definitely pick him up next year, because he’ll be valued way higher than he will be going into 2014.

How freaking sexy and pretty is this guy? Like, I’d do disgusting things to him (wait, don’t forget about my introduction. Archer’s a girl!). And how awesome is his name? Archer. 6:58 later, I’m back. That show’s awesome.

A top prospect for a few years in the revered Rays organization, Archer’s had some control problems and spoiled cups of coffee in the Bigs. But talk about an awesome last four games: 31 IP, 1 ER, 2 CG, 4 BB, 17 K. A decrease in walk rate and increase in grounders might finally herald Archer’s arrival as the surefooted, reliable starter he was projected to be for the past few years. He’s not as good as his past four games — nobody is that good, and he has a .216 BAbip-against — and his value is really high right now, but if he lets up a few runs before your deadline, know that he’ll be anchored in the Rays rotation next year and his ADP should probably be around 175 next year. If you’ve picked him up, he’d be one of the few pitchers I’d really want to keep going into next year. Also, the Rays kind of have a way to keep their guys healthy unless they get dome-pieced.

Could this suckfest reasonably be the result of the team he’s on? And not in the Marlins kind of way, but in the everyone-on-this-team-strikes-out-so-hey-I’m-just-going-to-swing-for-the-fences kind of way. According to Fan Graphs, Upton’s contact rate, which was at 77.1% last year, has dropped all the way down to 70.6% in 2013. He’s not swinging at bad pitches any more than usual, he’s just swinging and missing too often. After his SO% got as low as 18.7% in 2011, Upton’s back up to 24.9%, which is some sort of nonsensical regression for a 25-year-old in his seventh Major League season.

He’s definitely better than this, and he’s proven to have more power than his 16 homers implies, but he’s not running and not bombing like a non-runner needs to, so I think even his $15 next year could be a bit too much.

I get asked about trades involving Upton often, and I’d stay away from him now and in the long-term.

Does anyone read Mark Listanti’s awesome “Derek Jeter diaries”? Well, the way A-Rod’s portrayed in those is exactly how I picture him. Also, A-Rod gets vilified as some monster who’s trying to screw the Yankees and their fans like Cameron Diaz. He went to a second doctor?! What an a**hole! Why won’t he just retire and free up the Yankees’ cap room?! He’s an a**hole. He’s going to appeal?! What an a**hole. I don’t believe this, but does anyone ever just stop and think, “hey, maybe this guy just really, really wants to play baseball again and will do anything simply to get back on the diamond.”

He’s hitting more fly-balls than ever, is striking out more than ever, and has his highest HR/FB rate ever. But that’s exactly what we expect from Pedro Alvarez, who sounds like Mario when Matthew Berry does his impression.

Alvarez’s 22.1% HR/FB is way too high — even for him — and his LD% is keeping his BA at .242 despite the increase in strikeouts. What you’ll get is what you expect: A BA that hopefully won’t murder you and a whole bunch of dingers on a Pirates team that shouldn’t but does hit. What do those numbers and prospects merit? A pick better than 158. I’d definitely deal for him if I needed the pop for this year. That said, he’s definitely not the best keeper, because he won’t be much better than 2013’s price, but there’s slight value to be had.

Follow Terse on Twitter @TerseRazzball and let him know the guys you want him to give his take on. Also, ask him questions so he feels like he has friends. He needs some of those.

I always pick the brunette, they try so much harder because they know the blonde gets bonus points for being blonde by everyone else, the brunette gets bonus points from me for not living the lie of being a blonde. But hey, what do I know, I haven’t dated a white girl ever, so there you go.

with your Twitter pic, i assumed you were still in high school, so is this a summer internship for you?

@TheGoods: I would think Gyorko, Miller, Gray, Gattis. I only put Gattis low because we don’t know what/where he is at next year. Could be a one hit wonder and may be in another un-defined spot. If he gets to the AL as a DH he could be huge. But too many question marks for me.

@TheGoods: Dislike Gattis, Gyorko is unexciting. Sonny Gray is really interesting but I’d be hesitant to keep him unless I have plenty of spots to spare. I kind of like this Franklin/Miller dynamic the M’s have going on. I like him.

@shibboleth: I like Alvarez there in the 10th, I think he’ll just keep on swatting until his dying days. Not high on Rendon and he’s really biting the dust recently, but a lot of other Razzwriters would disagree. No Morales. Pedro is my fave of the three, definitely.

Great post as always, Terse, and thanks for your Twitter advice re: Braun. I was just curious what your philosophy is about keeping guys in that $45-50 range in a regular old 260 budget league? I recently turned over a $47 Cano to a contender in return for some younger cheaper pieces and I can shake the feeling that I made a bad call. When does the price become too high for even top ten players like Robbie?

Probably half of those Upton keeper trade questions came from me. Sorry about that.

I make a point to try and watch all the at bats I can of my core keepers and I feel like the eye test can tell you a lot that stats don’t necessarily do. The one reoccurring problem I was seeing with Upton was his swing and misses at fastballs down the middle from his belt up. He was late every time. It was weird. Maybe he just sits on off speed stuff when he’s down in the count. I don’t know.

Anyways, I moved him before the All-star break and was worried about dealing him at that point. I’m feeling a little better about it now since he has still yet to get out of his funk and go on a homerun surge.

So onto my question: Who would you rather have in a keeper league going forward, same price, keep as many years as you want – Carlos Gomez or Wil Myers? I’ve seen a mixed bag of expectations for Wil with one L (what is that all about anyways???).

Trying to go for it and plan for next year at the same time. my current keepers are Votto, longo, Stanton, Stras burg and then either Heyward or Cespedes.

I want to acquire Machado for shellfish reasons. I have a current offer that has me moving Cespedes and my 6th rd pick (1st after keepers) and i get back machado and McCann and a 12th rd pick. I’m ok with lossing the pick because i did the same thing last year and still cam out of the draft with one of the better teams and with careful timely management (hat tip to the wonderful content found at Razzball) find myself in second place.

i just lost Yadir as well. I think its a good move for me. I can also explore the possibility of moving Longo to replace some picks. I have some serious interest in Longo right now and I told the manager that Longo will cost at least a 6 and an 8 rd pick and I can get one of Anibal, Burnett, or Iwakuma along with that. (longo would go with one of my three closers)

When all is said an d done what do you think of it in its entirety?
Thanks man – and I agree the brunettes take it.

Very good job on coming out of the draft alright despite not having that pick, but you can’t rely on that happening again. If you really don’t carea bout losing that pick and make that trade, then trade Longo to get some of those picks back, your overall trade would be:

Cespedes, Longo for Machado, 3rd rounder, Iwakuma. That ends up being a really close one.

then it leads you to: do you trust Heyward? Do you want to keep him?

McCann is a wash and useless. Find Catcher help on the wire, as Yadier will only be out for 15 days — no structural damage reported.

God this is tough, but I thin I’d sit tight and woudl actually try to move Votto for some nice value.

@Terse: yeah moving Votto would be tough. My main goal is to acquire Machado, as this could be my only chnace. I’m pissed about it because early on in the season i actually traded machado FOR heyward and have been kicking myself ever since. Although, the other manager did mention about Heyward. I could see if perhaps he’d willing to swap back and then i wouldn;t lose the pick and so on

@Pops: I like Marte more than I like Pujols — not even sure if Pujols will be health beginning next year. How much are you paying for Braun? did you spend a first-rounder on him this year? If so, I wouldn’t keep. Definitely interested in Everth Cabrera. Like your pitching as is.

@Terse: Altuve and Andrus are available on waivers. Would you do anything with them? I’ll probably be able to draft them next year. We don’t pay anything for our keepers. Drafted Braun first in 2012 and won the championship with him. We decide on keepers next March. So I will be able to revisit this, and come end of season I can pick up the Taveras and Yelichs etc. so that I can make my decisions harder. LOL Is keeping 6 hitters and those 4 pitchers a good idea?

In a keeper league, I’ve been offered Ecab for Kinsler. I’m out of any contention for this season. Who do you like better as a keeper? (I was pretty sold on taking Cabrera until reading Scott’s post that ranked Kinsler as a top 50 keeper.)

in your story, it’s not your lack of researching girls that led to you losing that bet, it’s not doing enough research on the aesthetics of the guys in your workplace, or maybe guys of that age in general. i’m pretty sure with what pedro from pittsburg is doing right now there’s no way you get him around 140 anymore. Upton at 50 if he keeps up what he was doing before Mon of this week is believable. I’d cum in my pants though if i could actually get Upton this low (same way i felt when i got Goldy right around his Yahoo adp this year at 43rd).

@Terse: Thanks for the response. I’m in a tough spot, where second and third and maybe fourth place are all clumped together (i’m in second by 2.5 points) but I’m behind first by 17.

The choo, uggla, upton move is less about keeper value for next year than going for it now. But I can’t decide if i’m so far behind that it doesn’t really matter and I should just play for second. I’m behind in HR, RBI, OBP, and Ks, hence trading lead off guys for sluggers and OBP guys.

If it weren’t for devoting so much of my auction budget to Weeks, BJUpton and Braun, I’d probably be in first. :(

That is the harshest review I have read in Justin. I traded cargo away for upton and Gardner a month ago. Based on our strange keeper rules based on end of season rankings both are a lot cheaper, but I’m hoping that solidified my outfield.

Just a quick questions for you, based on auction keeper values. This is how I think, and I wanna see if you feel the same way. In deeper leagues, say 14-16 teams for instance, studs are and or should be worth even more…correct? Let’s just say average the price for Trout in a standard league is around$50, give or take. My thoughts would be in say, a 16 team league, he is justifiably “worth” $60, or so…again give or take.

The deeper the leagues get, obviously the more garbage that has to be rostered and or started. So, the studs to me mean even more. Is my thinking in this correct, or am I off base? For instance in a 16 team keeper, where we keep 5, I have Miggy who is now up to $57..in a league like that my thinking tells me he is worth that. I see him and Trout in a tier of their own of course. Cano and Braun were each kept in there at $52, just to give you examples of perceived value.

In my yearly 14 team league, 6×6 ( .OPS and Holds added) Trout went for $61, Miggy $58, and then Braun and Cano went for $54. Just throwing some other examples out there real quick.

So, say you agree with my thinking on this, what would be a good general rule as far as dollar value increase in relation to league depth? I know settings come into play, but let’s just say 5×5, although I generally play in 6×6. Would something like a $5 increase in player value from say a 12 to 14 team league be reasonable? Just as a rule of thumb type thing. Looking forward to your thoughts.