LOLz. Don't forget the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ pattern.... very bullish! Don't worry Mr. Market wants to play with the bears a bit more, we need to swoon maybe down to 2850 (maybe even 2750!) one more time to give them that "I knew it, I was right!!! (tm)" feeling....only to thrust up to 3025 the two weeks later. We can't make this too easy.

From there, tread water there for a bit, wait for an earnings season, completely ignore it, and then more upwards again to around 3200 -- so close to an all-time high you can taste it. But no, no....we won't do that, instead we'll go frustratingly sideways for maybe 8-12 months waiting for earnings to catch up, bouncing around a bit shaking out the non-believers. Gotta love how Mr. Market thinks.

WOW, I am only -1% from all time high before the crash. My portfolio went from negative 800K from all time high to just negative 45K from all time high and up YTD but I did throw everything I got into the market in March before DOW 18K !

What a ride. Still feels like the market has been sideways since January 2018.

Glad I stayed the course during that nasty crash. Got that under my belt and out of the way.

The sideways feeling will eventually go away at some point.

The nice thing about crashes is that after the fire is put out and previous highs are hit again, your portfolio is at a new high because of contributions along the way, with a bonus that they were made at lower stock prices. Not to mention dividends, etc. depending on how long the crash is.

You just have to ignore portfolio balances, know that you're doing the right thing, and keep buying as you normally would.

Unemployment numbers approaching Great Depression numbers and S&P at 3000

I learned last week from David Stein's Money for the Rest of Uspodcast that S&P 500 firms only employ 17% of the U.S. workforce.

That means that the entire publicly traded stock market (i.e. total stock market) covers no more than one-fifth of U.S. workers' employers.

I don't see how that second statement follows from the first--though it might be true. Do the thousands of publicly traded companies not in the S&P 500 employ less than 3% of the workforce?

The 17% employment of the workforce by S&P 500 companies does not count the employees of those companies providing the S&P 500 companies raw materials, capital tools, IT/software, buildings, accounting/management services, legal, transportation.... well, you get the idea. The S&P 500 companies all need gobs of things from other companies. As does pretty much any company. Add all that up, and you have our economy. There is a great big world out there once you get away from the S&P 500 companies, as they are not islands unto themselves.

Broken Man 1999

“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

Unemployment numbers approaching Great Depression numbers and S&P at 3000

I learned last week from David Stein's Money for the Rest of Uspodcast that S&P 500 firms only employ 17% of the U.S. workforce.

That means that the entire publicly traded stock market (i.e. total stock market) covers no more than one-fifth of U.S. workers' employers.

I don't see how that second statement follows from the first--though it might be true. Do the thousands of publicly traded companies not in the S&P 500 employ less than 3% of the workforce?

The 17% employment of the workforce by S&P 500 companies does not count the employees of those companies providing the S&P 500 companies raw materials, capital tools, IT/software, buildings, accounting/management services, legal, transportation.... well, you get the idea. The S&P 500 companies all need gobs of things from other companies. As does pretty much any company. Add all that up, and you have our economy. There is a great big world out there once you get away from the S&P 500 companies, as they are not islands unto themselves.

Broken Man 1999

Correct. There is no bright line in the economy separating publicly traded companies from all the rest. However, when we buy the S&P 500, we're not able to buy 'all the rest'. We're only buying a sliver of the economy from the standpoint of American workers employed.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Unemployment numbers approaching Great Depression numbers and S&P at 3000

I learned last week from David Stein's Money for the Rest of Uspodcast that S&P 500 firms only employ 17% of the U.S. workforce.

That means that the entire publicly traded stock market (i.e. total stock market) covers no more than one-fifth of U.S. workers' employers.

I don't see how that second statement follows from the first--though it might be true. Do the thousands of publicly traded companies not in the S&P 500 employ less than 3% of the workforce?

You might be right, but I was thinking more along the lines of the small companies not included in the S&P 500, though there are thousands of them, likely employ many fewer people than the 500 largest publicly traded companies. For instance, it would probably take dozens, if not more, small cap companies to employ as many people as Amazon alone.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

It's just protecting a large downside in exchange for a little upside though at this point no? I have 25% of my allocation in cash now ($100K+) and I calculated even if we go up to the all-time high, that's just a loss of $12k (the potential gain I am missing out on). In a scenario where we go back down to S&P 2200, it would be more beneficial to have this dry powder. Maybe this is all moot and just a more round about way of saying that at age 31 I just feel more comfortable with a 75-25 allocation now. The question is where to park $100k while waiting though.

Not a lot of favorable math when it comes to holding cash. I have a lot of it (see here: Portfoliocharts on cash ). I think it's okay to say I have given up a little upside for a little protection.

To say you give up a little upside and get a lot of protection is not really right.

I just don't see anything wrong with holding cash, especially if those can afford to do so by having high saving rate. Maybe 50k - 100k? It's not like it's perpetual. You can hold cash for a few years. Things change and your cash holding should change accordingly. It'll get spent or invested, or maybe just stayed there. A HVAC unit is 15k-20k? A new car is 20k-50k? A vacation is 5k-30k? RBD coming up? List goes on.

I have no idea what will happen on any given day, but a reheating trade war with China in the middle of a pandemic seems likely to adversely affect share prices. I’ll give slight odds to a down Friday.

I think you’ll see a PLUNGE near the close on low volume as traders unwind positions in advance of a three day weekend.

Or maybe not ......

I hope you are wrong, as I’d rather close out the week on a high note. However, there’s a pretty good chance you are right, 3 days is an eternity in a pandemic, so I wouldn’t be surprised if many move to the sidelines towards close.

I think you’ll see a PLUNGE near the close on low volume as traders unwind positions in advance of a three day weekend.

Or maybe not ......

I hope you are wrong, as I’d rather close out the week on a high note. However, there’s a pretty good chance you are right, 3 days is an eternity in a pandemic, so I wouldn’t be surprised if many move to the sidelines towards close.

Well, no plunge at the close. Nice little uptick to close out the week.

My stock market prediction “prowess” is worth exactly what you pay for it.

I think you’ll see a PLUNGE near the close on low volume as traders unwind positions in advance of a three day weekend.

Or maybe not ......

I hope you are wrong, as I’d rather close out the week on a high note. However, there’s a pretty good chance you are right, 3 days is an eternity in a pandemic, so I wouldn’t be surprised if many move to the sidelines towards close.

Well, no plunge at the close. Nice little uptick to close out the week.

My stock market prediction “prowess” is worth exactly what you pay for it.

I am no better. Nice way to finish out the week, always nice to have a bit of extra "cheddar" in the brokerage account!

Thanks for sharing that. I read his article in Barron’s, which ends with “If nothing else...it’s a lousy time to buy.” Hopefully a strong contrary indicator! (I found it — the Barron’s article — depressing to read, but continue my contributions apace.)

Are you going to watch it daily until retirement or death just because you're interested? If you've set your AA and are staying the course, daily changes in the market do not matter.

Not daily - but when I hear about big movements up and down it is interesting to hear about what is driving it. Typically over-reactions and sometimes even fake-news is driving changes. I find it very interesting. Yes - we all know daily changes don't matter - but it amazes me how the wild swings occur and why. As someone else pointed out - this thread was started in good-fun as a counterpoint to the "Free Fall' thread.

I just looked at a few of the thousands of posts here.
Is this the BH day trading thread?

No. No such thing.
....

The "free fall" thread sometimes looks that way. In this thread I think most of the posts are tongue-in-cheek, and mostly buy and holders.
There is one regular poster in here does seem to always be buying... not sure where his money being traded into stocks is coming out of

"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham