Model guidance today highlights some disagreements, although it's worth noting how the ECMWF and CMC models both bring a tropical cyclone with pressures below 1000 mb into the Gulf Coast Saturday night. Meanwhile, the GFS takes a very weak low into Florida. A strong system is not expected, but rather a weak, wet system could be on tap for portions of the Gulf Coast and FL later this week.

In fact, the last 4 runs of the European have been consistent in showing a relatively weak system affecting the northern Gulf coast this upcoming holiday weekend. This is not a forecast, we are monitoring trends and will keep you updated this week. Stay tuned to the Hurricane Tracker App for updates.