Kingston Hill threw the Derby betting market into confusion with an emphatic success in the Racing Post Trophy here on Saturday, scoring a significant success in the young career of his trainer, Roger Varian.

The colt, who had made his racecourse debut just five weeks earlier, is 5-1 and a mere point from being the outright favourite for next year's Epsom Classic with one firm, while another has him at as big as 12-1 and the rest are spread between.

It is often a little difficult to know what to make of a Racing Post winner. Four times since 2001, the colt that took this prize has gone on to Derby glory and those four have been among the better animals seen in that time, notably High Chaparral. On the other hand, three of the past six Trophy heroes have not won since.

Kingston Hill's background does not scream Derby winner, since he cost a modest 70,000 guineas at auction last year and his best sibling was a handicapper last seen running 12th over hurdles at 100-1. But the grey son of Mastercraftsman has promised a great deal in a short time and was impressive in powering four lengths clear of his field here.

This was a fourth Group One victory for the 34-year-old Varian, in his third season with a licence, and counts as easily the most significant, since the other successes were in races confined to fillies. Moreover, it puts an exclamation point on a season that threatened to trail off in mid-sentence, his horses having been too sick to run two months ago.

"It was a bacteria which brought on a cough," the trainer recalled. "It went round them very quickly, it went round most of them, which is frustrating at the time, but, in hindsight, we can treat them all at the same time, they all came out of it together and it didn't keep them down for long.

"But the Flat season jumps from meeting to meeting and, if you have three quiet weeks, people notice. Thankfully they came back strong."

Though he insists that what afflicted his yard was not serious enough to be termed a virus, Varian had no runners at York's valuable Ebor meeting in August as he briefly shut up shop to deal with the infection. Having had three winners for the whole of that month, he has had 33 since. However, manageable the crisis, few trainers have bounced back from such a thing with more vigour.

Kingston Hill was among those affected and Varian said he had had to ease off with the colt's exercise regime, but for which he might have made his debut in August. As it is, the trainer is impressed with how professional his winner has been after so little experience.

"He walked round beforehand with his head down," he said. "He's not turned a hair all day, travelled up to the races better than the two older horses he accompanied. He conserves energy, he's got an engine and he's got great, great acceleration.

"There's a really hardy, tough but sensible side to this horse. If you give him a bit of stick at home, he comes straight back in, straight to the manger, eats up. He's a shape to be better next year, he should have a good winter and he's really exciting."

Nor are ambitions confined to the Derby. Varian feels Kingston Hill has enough pace to be a possible contender for the 2,000 Guineas and will wait to see how the horse winters before choosing a first target for next year.

At Aintree, Tony McCoy rode a treble to go with his five-timer at Carlisle on Thursday. The champion is now 13 shy of the 4,000-winner mark, which he seems likely to reach within the next 10 days.