Are The Raptors Poised To Fail In The 2011 Draft?

Multiple NBA team executives told CBSSports.com this week they believe a significant number of college underclassmen will stay in school rather than risk losing a year of development (and pay) in a lockout. College coaches making the pitch to underclassman to stay in school will have more leverage than ever before. “They’ll have the hammer,” one exec said. “To lose a year of development at that stage of your career, that’s huge.” This could have a dramatic impact on a team like No. 4 Kansas, which in an ordinary year would have as many as three first-round picks: freshman Josh Selby (serving a nine-game NCAA suspension for accepting improper benefits); and juniors Marcus Morris and Tyshawn Taylor. Sophomore Thomas Robinson also impressed NBA execs scouting the Jimmy V Classic Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden.

I realize this is really early but let's cover it anyway. 2006, they win the lotto in a draft with no consensus number one. No only that, it was a total crap shoot of a draft. Some called it weak back then due increased uncertainty in the players... Moving along to this year, the Raptors stockpiled some picks and are probably going to be in the lotto. Only problem is now a lot of kids may stay an extra year leaving the class weak and a bigger crap shoot than usual. I could see this being an International player heavy draft because the kids outside the U.S. have nothing to lose by entering this year, in fact it might be the best strategic time to enter the draft for them. All that said do you think this sets up the Raptors for success for failure?

There was an article on nba.com a while back about Mike Bibby. He was drafted in the 1998 lockout and he said he wouldn't have changed a thing. I believe he encouraged people to get into the draft anyway because your stock could end up going down, you could have a serious injury and never get drafted, etc. He said that if you are positive you will be a first round pick, then do it because it secures you playing for an NBA team.

Their coaches will push it but I think it's good advice. You might not get paid while your in a lock out, but if you'rethe next big thing then you'll get sponsorships and be ok.

There was an article on nba.com a while back about Mike Bibby. He was drafted in the 1998 lockout and he said he wouldn't have changed a thing. I believe he encouraged people to get into the draft anyway because your stock could end up going down, you could have a serious injury and never get drafted, etc. He said that if you are positive you will be a first round pick, then do it because it secures you playing for an NBA team.

Their coaches will push it but I think it's good advice. You might not get paid while your in a lock out, but if you'rethe next big thing then you'll get sponsorships and be ok.

very good points....

knowing are luck well get the #1 pick & there wont be anyone to draft, ever since the raptors got screwed out of the first overall pick back in 95 ive not had alot of faith in the lottery.. our draft history has been terrible too so its going to be a real crapshoot..

if there is a lockout id expect the only ones to declaire will be the scrubs who have over achieved or are 1 step away from a career ending injury...

Can the drafted rookies sign before the CBA expires? I'm not sure about that. What if they turn pro, then get hurt and never get to sign a contract? They can't even go back to school and play on scholarship at that point.

Can the drafted rookies sign before the CBA expires? I'm not sure about that. What if they turn pro, then get hurt and never get to sign a contract? They can't even go back to school and play on scholarship at that point.

I believe that there are specific rules about the draft that requires a team to sign their first round picks. Getting drafted is basically a signing. THe first 5 get better contracts, the next 5 a little bit less and so on. I don't think the new CBA will change any of that. If they get drafted and hurt then they can be buds with Ed Davis.

Let me know if I am wrong but I believe that's how it works.

ps. the players demands are ridiculous. There needs to be some kind of cap, even if it's in the luxury tax. Teams like the lakers who pay 40 million in luxury tax is ridiculous. no wonder no one else can win

I believe that there are specific rules about the draft that requires a team to sign their first round picks. Getting drafted is basically a signing. THe first 5 get better contracts, the next 5 a little bit less and so on. I don't think the new CBA will change any of that. If they get drafted and hurt then they can be buds with Ed Davis.

Let me know if I am wrong but I believe that's how it works.

ps. the players demands are ridiculous. There needs to be some kind of cap, even if it's in the luxury tax. Teams like the lakers who pay 40 million in luxury tax is ridiculous. no wonder no one else can win

Yeah but how does that play out when teams draft a guy and he plays in europe? They're not paying him to play there but they own his rights once he decides to play in the NBA.

It might affect the decisions of some sub-lottery players, but for the top end guys, they'd be taking a huge risk in staying another year: firstly, if this draft ends up being thin, the next draft is going to be much more competitive, and lottery-bound players who stay out this year might find themselves on the outside of the lottery (and much further down the rookie contract scale) a year later. Add to this that one of the bargaining chips that is on the table is the draft eligibility age. The players association would like to get it back to the way it was where players can enter directly out of high-school. If that happens, then that next draft becomes even more competitive and these guys drop down a few more notches. Add then there's the uncertainty of not knowing whether rookie contracts will be the same post-lockout. I'm pretty sure they're not likely to be higher.

It also remains to be seen how a 2012 draft would be conducted following a lockout, if it wipes out the 2011-12 season. I believe the NHL went with a system where results over the last five years were combined (with the more recent years more heavily weighted) and then a 1-30 lottery was conducted based on those. If that's the case, the Raptors would likely be in line for another top 15 pick in that draft.

Question: When does the current CBA end? I thought it ended immediately after the last game of the finals, meaning if there's a lockout, the draft would not even happen under the current CBA. Can somebody confirm the truth about the deadline for the current CBA.

Comment: Assuming the draft does go forward under the current CBA, I could actually see MORE young player declaring for the draft given the NBA's desire to increase the draft age from 19 to 20 or even 21. I read recently that the players' union is asking for the age to be lowered back to 18, but I'm guessing that's just a bargaining tactic to give them room to negotiate to maintain the current age level of 19. Regardless, I could see many more 19-20 year olds declaring than normal, given the uncertainty moving forward.

Question: When does the current CBA end? I thought it ended immediately after the last game of the finals, meaning if there's a lockout, the draft would not even happen under the current CBA. Can somebody confirm the truth about the deadline for the current CBA.
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I answered my own question... found this on ESPN twitter feeds (read from bottom up, stupid ESPN)

@LarryCoon No, the draft goes on as scheduled. Remember, the draft is under the purview of the current CBA. @yj2323 24 minutes ago
@yj2323: any chance the nba delays the draft this year b/c of the impending lockout?

I believe that there are specific rules about the draft that requires a team to sign their first round picks. Getting drafted is basically a signing.

Example time. Ok, so the CBA runs out roughly around the end of June... Imagine for a moment if you will that this had happened this past summer. Xavier Henry took all summer to be signed to his rookie deal. If there was no CBA in place he would currently have no contract what so ever because after the CBA expires negotiations cannot take place.

albertan_10 wrote:

THe first 5 get better contracts, the next 5 a little bit less and so on. I don't think the new CBA will change any of that. If they get drafted and hurt then they can be buds with Ed Davis.

What you're suggesting falls under CBA rules. What if there is no CBA?

albertan_10 wrote:

ps. the players demands are ridiculous. There needs to be some kind of cap, even if it's in the luxury tax. Teams like the lakers who pay 40 million in luxury tax is ridiculous. no wonder no one else can win

Player demands are ridiculous. My bet is on the owners crushing them if they players don't wise up.

Kyrie Irving out for the season--so the question is, will the raps get another Ed Davis special, or will Irving return for his sophmore year?

I think the key word is 'could'. They have 3 games between now and conference play on January 2. They are also still not sure what is going on from what I've read or if they do know, they are not sure treatment or possible recovery times.

I think the key word is 'could'. They have 3 games between now and conference play on January 2. They are also still not sure what is going on from what I've read or if they do know, they are not sure treatment or possible recovery times.

Yeah it's amazing how many players live cheque to cheque. I know that the union has been telling players to save their money.

I wonder if players can move to the D-league if there's a strike since Stern said it ain't goin anywhere next year.

the cost of kush is crazy these days... no wonder some of these guys live cheque to cheque LOL in reality Id have a hard time believing that most players live cheque to cheque. if they do they need help(Mental) guys like beasley,west,cousins,evans are prob at money mart everyweek getting cash advances to pay for there habbits LOL

Man, the last time we had a lock-out, 1998, we had a sweet draft. Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Dirk. I mean, quality will still be there if there is a lock-out this year. We just need the skill to weed through the riff raff. Most of these kids don't want to be in College. They want to be in the NBA. If they can go high in the draft, there is no way they are waiting another season. There are risks sticking it out another year in college.

Looking back at the 1998 draft (lock-out) and the 1999 draft (year after lock-out) you might expect the 1999 draft to be exceptional with all the college kids sticking another year in college during the lock-out. This was not the case. I would take Paul Pierce, Vince Carter (asshole), Antawn Jamison, Dirk from the 1998 draft over Elton Brand, Steve Francis (asshole), Baron Davis (asshole), and Wally Szczerbiak the 1999 draft.

All is not doom and gloom if Toronto gets a lottery pick this year.

Never, under any circumstances, take a sleeping pill and a laxative on the same night.

Looking back at the 1998 draft (lock-out) and the 1999 draft (year after lock-out) you might expect the 1999 draft to be exceptional with all the college kids sticking another year in college during the lock-out. This was not the case. I would take Paul Pierce, Vince Carter (asshole), Antawn Jamison, Dirk from the 1998 draft over Elton Brand, Steve Francis (asshole), Baron Davis (asshole), and Wally Szczerbiak the 1999 draft.

All is not doom and gloom if Toronto gets a lottery pick this year.

You see...that is why history is an invaluable learning tool. This is obviously a bit of a tangent, but, it's so easy to theorize about why and how the lockout may affect the draft. Fact is, a lockout happened not so long ago. As opposed to wondering and speculating randomly about what may happen this time around, why not just look to what happened last time? It makes everything a lot easier.

Excuse if this was already addressed...we could well have picked Oden if the Age 19 rule not come into effect the year Bargs was picked. I think the most outrageous was the first draft. Imagine taking millions from Toronto & Vancouver and denying them the first picks (even in the following year). Having said that I wonder who Isiah would have chosen instead of Stoudamire with first overall in 95.

The issue of staying in school doesnt wash. Most of the really good ones already think they are ready for the NBA are not particularly interested in either personal nor basketball development. The guarantee of being drafted (the top guys) and being assured their position is too enticing I feel. I dont think many will change their minds. Actually I find it very hard to believe there will be lockout into the season. The owners will get their way mostly and the current top earners wont let it get too far....its probably the last contract for most of them with a loss of a lot of money they wont get back.

the cost of kush is crazy these days... no wonder some of these guys live cheque to cheque LOL in reality Id have a hard time believing that most players live cheque to cheque. if they do they need help(Mental) guys like beasley,west,cousins,evans are prob at money mart everyweek getting cash advances to pay for there habbits LOL

How is Chris Bosh gonna pay for his home if there's a lockout??!!

Naw I wouldn't say most, but a hell of a lot of players would have a hard time going a year without a pay cheque.