Dems warn: Let's not get cocky

Democrats have plenty of reason to feel good right now: The economy’s improving, the president’s numbers are up, their prospects for holding the Senate have brightened, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is confidently predicting that she’ll have a shot to regain the speaker’s gavel next year.

Television screens and news pages are full of stories about new Democratic momentum.

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But on the ground level, Democrats’ newfound optimism is heavily salted with caution. The confidence is tempered by the knowledge that the political environment can change in an instant, especially when the resurgence owes to a fragile economic recovery — and the fact that three wave elections in a row haven’t sated the pitchfork politics of a nation that hates its capital.

“I’m not putting a lot of stock in snapshots,” said Sen. Bob Casey, a first-term Democrat who is on the ballot this year in Pennsylvania. “I think any incumbent’s going to have a challenge this year. It’s still a challenging environment. I know some data shows that things have improved, but I know that a couple of months ago it was otherwise.”

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), whose home state is a perennial political battleground, says Democrats should keep their heads down and work on the things they can control.

“I think people are feeling better about the economy. I appreciate that that could change tomorrow,” she said. “Things change very quickly, and I think the best way to address the concerns that we’re hearing in the country is to keep working hard and to get some things done.”

It’s not just the fragile economy that’s begun rolling in the right direction for Democrats. Republicans freely acknowledge that the president outmaneuvered them on the payroll tax holiday last December — a fight that lasted into February — and his political dexterity during a recent contraception contretemps has left the GOP on the defensive on an issue that seemed to give them the upper hand just a week or so ago.

“He’s a very agile guy, and not just on the basketball court,” Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), the minority whip, said when asked about the president’s nimble moves on a payroll tax cut package that twisted Republicans in knots for months.

Republicans and Democrats cite the economy and the GOP presidential primary battle as reasons for Obama’s surge in popularity, as evidenced by approval ratings that are right side up for the first time since last summer, according to the Real Clear Politics average.