Taking into account the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the volume of arrivals in 2020 is now expected to reduce to fewer than 500 million this year. Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) forecast reveals the most likely scenario for international visitor arrivals into and across Asia Pacific in 2020 is that visitor numbers are likely to reduce by 32% year-on-year.

This will take the visitor volume back to levels last seen in 2012 and the growth is expected to resume in 2021, returning to forecast levels by 2023.

This depends on how quickly and completely the COVID-19 pandemic is contained and controlled. A more optimistic scenario suggests arrivals still falling in 2020 but by 16% year-on-year while a pessimistic narrative predicts a reduction of approximately 44%.

Asia will be severely impacted especially the Northeast Asia which is now predicted to lose almost 51% of its visitor volume between 2019 and 2020 (most likely scenario).

This will be followed by South Asia with a reduction of 31%, and then Southeast Asia with a 22% drop in visitor arrivals. West Asia is projected to lose almost six percent in visitor arrivals, followed by the Pacific with a projected contraction of 18%, and the Americas with a loss of a little under 12%.

Recovery rates relative to 2019 are expected to occur in most destination regions/sub-regions in 2020, however, Northeast Asia is likely to take a little longer and exceed the 2019 volume of arrivals in 2022.

Visitor receipts is expected to drop by 27% between 2019 and 2020 under the most likely scenario, reducing to US$594 billion, significantly below the original 2020 forecast of US$811 billion.

Asia is expected to lose more than US$170 billion (-36%), with Northeast Asia predicted to lose more than US$123 billion (-48%) under this most likely scenario, followed by South Asia with a US$13.3 billion loss (-33%) and Southeast Asia with a US$34.6 billion shortfall (-20%). The Americas is projected to lose more than US$35 billion (-13%) and the Pacific US$18 billion (-18%).