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The U.S. economy is in a mature recovery with solid hiring in place

While the daily blast of headlines is noisy and even jarring, the U.S. economy continues to roll right along, seemingly undaunted.

It continues to deliver a respectable level of hiring. Based on what we know at the moment, the job market outlook for the coming year is also generally upbeat.

This confidence also surrounds the August employment report due from the U.S. Labor Department. Economists generally expect about 175,000 jobs added to the economy for the month.

To get a sense of where we're going, let's take a look at the recent past. The economic expansion began in mid-2009, making it mature at this point. Like most things growing older, hiring isn't moving as fast as before.

The U.S. economy created 2.7 million jobs in 2015 and 2.2 million last year. Through this year so far, monthly payrolls growth has averaged 184,000. If that pace continues through year-end, that result in a total for 2017 that's close to last year.

What about the outlook over the next year? Bankrate.com's quarterly survey of economists, just released, finds that we should expect a monthly average of about 168,000 jobs added over the coming year. That's enough to continue to whittle away at remaining slack in the job market.

It's generally assumed we need about 100,000 jobs added monthly just to keep pace with growth in the population, with individuals joining the job market.

Risks that could knock the U.S. economy and the job market outlook for a loop:

Tax reform: If the Congress and President Trump fail to get tax reform enacted, business confidence will take a hit, which could impact hiring plans.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who is chairman of the Business Roundtable, said in June that a survey of business leaders found a delay in tax reform would result in a delay in hiring reforms and capital spending.

Earlier this year, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pressed for tax reform to happen before Congress' August recess. Since it hasn't happened, one could say it has already been delayed.

NAFTA: Abandonment of the North American Free Trade Agreement, if it were to happen as President Trump has threatened, could take a bite out of the U.S. economy. Congress and the courts would likely challenge such a move. But, at a minimum, it would add to business uncertainty. The Council on Foreign Relations estimates that trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico totaled more than $1.1 trillion in 2016.

Geopolitical risks and natural disaster: Aside from the heartbreaking human factor, the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey and related flooding will dampen economic output in the current quarter.

Houston is the fifth largest metro area in the U.S. while the Texas gulf coast accounts for a significant share of the nation's refining capacity. Ultimately, the rebuilding effort will be a positive for growth as the recovery gains traction and dollars start to flow.

Finally, growing tensions between the U.S. and North Korea is a wildcard which is incalculable. Along with the safety and welfare of people potentially affected by conflict, the health of the U.S. job market is dependent on peace and some measure of stability in the region.

Mark Hamrick is Washington Bureau Chief and Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate.com, operating out of the National Press Building in the shadow of the White House and U.S. Treasury. He is a national award-winning business and financial news journalist who came to Bankrate after leading business news for Broadcast at the Associated Press in Washington for nearly 20 years. Mark is the current president of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers and a former president of the National Press Club. Follow him on Twitter: @Hamrickisms