The OECD’s composite leading indicators (CLIs), which have a good track record for predicting changes in economic conditions about six months in advance, “continue to point to a pick up in growth” in the UK, the Paris-based think-tank said.

The CLIs have now indicated that growth in the UK is starting to accelerate for the last four months, although in the August and September releases the improvement was only “tentative”.

Signs that the economy is in the early stages of a proper recovery will be welcome. The economy may have grown at 1pc in the three months to September but the figure was distorted by one-off effects, including the Olympics, and analysts reckon the underlying pace of growth is just 0.2pc.

The CLIs indicate that the economy is on course to grow at or above trend, which would be around 0.5pc-0.6pc a quarter.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The latest OECD leading indicator is supportive to hopes that the UK can keep on growing after exiting recession in the third quarter."

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Britain’s continuing improvement came amid “signs of stabilisation” in Canada, China and the US – helping to brighten the global picture. However, growth is only stabilising in the OECD area, which covers the world’s major economies, and remains “weak” in the euro area.

The CLIs for the UK were 100.2, the second month Britain has been above the 100 level that separates below trend growth from above trend. The last time the UK reading was above 100 and expanding was in October 2010.

The OECD’s survey also found that the UK was faring better than the major European countries, including France and Germany. It follows a long period in which the CLIs showed that the UK was on the verge of a “slowdown”, then “below trend growth” and finally “continuing weak growth”.

The OECD’s outlook will be welcome after the weak domestic economic indicators for activity in services, manufacturing and construction last month. Economists said they pointed to a contraction for the month of October, or stagnation at best and raised the risk of a triple dip recession.

The OECD forecast in May that the UK would grow by 0.5pc and has not revised its outlook yet. The current consensus is that the economy will contract by 0.2pc this year.

The Telegraph Investor

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