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THE REPUBLICANS’ RECIPE FOR REPEAL – POLITICO’s Manu Raju and Jake Sherman break down the Republicans’ response to Thursday’s historic Supreme Court ruling: “Republican hopes to repeal the health care law may come down to a bank shot: A GOP sweep in November and a simple Senate majority — along with some arcane budget procedures — could kill the individual mandate in 2013. The House will hold a symbolic vote to repeal the law on July 11, but the real long-term strategy for rolling back the law is already under way. Republicans are stoking voter anger over the law until Election Day, which they hope will produce a Mitt Romney presidency and an all-Republican Congress. And it ends by employing budget rules that would allow a fast-track repeal with a 51-vote majority in the Senate, circumventing a Democratic minority and potential filibuster. That process — known on Capitol Hill as budget reconciliation — would give Republicans a serious shot at repealing the individual mandate and the heart of the law before 2014 when much of it is scheduled to take effect.” http://politi.co/NInpgl

-- Glenn Thrush and Reid Epstein on what the president will do next: “Obama wants to move swiftly beyond the court decision, to cherry-pick the most attractive parts of his reform effort — prohibitions on discrimination based on pre-existing conditions, free checkups for women, extension of parental coverage to kids up to the age of 26 — and present them to the public as a menu of enticing new benefits and consumer protections. The second part of the strategy: Daring Mitt Romney to attack him on the least popular part of the law — the individual mandate — which Romney championed in Massachusetts.” http://politi.co/KPIx83

LEGACY ITEM -- The New York Times’ Mark Landler writes the ruling is more than a political victory for an ambitious president: “It is a personal reprieve, leaving intact his hopes of joining the ranks of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon B. Johnson and Ronald Reagan as presidents who fundamentally altered the course of the country.” http://nyti.ms/MuK6sH

--The New York Times ran a two-line banner headline, “JUSTICES, BY 5-4, UPHOLD HEALTH CARE LAW; ROBERTS IN MAJORITY; VICTORY FOR OBAMA.” All four front page stories were about the ruling. http://bit.ly/MFDEv4

POLITICAL IMPACT: NONE? -- Roll Call’s Joshua Miller throws cold water on everyone’s political predictions, writing that the ruling will have a minimal impact on November’s elections and leave the political landscape unchanged. http://bit.ly/MbCrzG

THE TAX SALVE -- Sure, Republicans saw their opponent’s major legislative achievement upheld, but the nation’s highest court also validated one of their favorite talking points. “Everyone from tea party stars to establishmentarians to possible 2016 presidential contenders seized on the tax language in the Supreme Court’s 5-4 majority opinion,” Robin Bravender and James Hohmann write for the hometown paper. “American Action Network Chairman Norm Coleman, the former Minnesota senator, compared the Supreme Court verdict to George H.W. Bush breaking his ‘read my lips: no new taxes’ promise before the 1992 election. He said it creates a character problem for Obama. ‘The court has said, in essence, you’re a liar,’ Coleman said.” In particular, the GOP zeroed in on Obama’s campaign promise not to raise taxes on those making less than $250,000 a year, arguing it was now broken.

-- “Americans for Prosperity, the Koch-backed conservative outside-spending juggernaut, quickly announced a $9 million ad campaign that will seize on the tax label. The ads, which will begin airing Thursday afternoon in 12 presidential swing states, stress that Obama ‘owns the mandate.’” http://bit.ly/LGGIeT

THE FOUR WHO STAYED SILENT – Kevin Robillard observes: From 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, reporters’ inboxes were barraged by statements from members reacting to the health care ruling. But four Senators stayed silent, declining to blast out a statement. Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) didn’t release a statement about the bill, alongside three swing-state Democrats: North Carolina’s Kay Hagan, Virginia’s Jim Webb and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill. Coburn, a physician, voted against the bill and has been a staunch opponent of the legislation. His spokesman said Coburn was still reviewing the ruling and would release an “updated plan to repeal and replace this unworkable law.” Webb, Hagan and McCaskill are all swing-state Democrats who voted for the bill. Webb, who is leaving the upper chamber after the election, has said the White House’s handling of the legislation cost the president “a lot of credibility as a leader.” Hagan is up for re-election in 2014. McCaskill, who is running for another six-year term, is facing a $4 million onslaught of negative ads from outside conservative groups, many of them attacking her vote for the legislation.

--Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who is also on the ballot in November, didn’t release a statement about the legislation, but she did send out a Tweet: “BREAKING: Health care reform bill upheld by the Supreme Court (as I believed it would be).” The other 95 Senators all released statements.

RULING THREATENS MEDICAID EXPANSION -- Sarah Kliff writes for the Washington Post: “Buried in the Supreme Court’s 193-page decision on the health reform law was one big surprise: States can opt out of the law’s sweeping expansion of Medicaid, significantly reducing the number of Americans who gain insurance. That ruling, experts say, could leave some of the poorest Americans in a ‘no-man’s land:’ Not covered by the federal entitlement program but not eligible for the subsidized health insurance. … The Medicaid expansion is expected to extend health insurance coverage to about 17 million Americans by 2019 by expanding the program to cover everyone below 133 percent of the federal poverty line (about $14,500 for an individual). In a lot of places, that expansion is pretty huge: In Texas, 1.8 million people would be expected to gain coverage under this provision. That number stands at 2 million in California and 950,000 in Florida. … What was once a guaranteed insurance expansion is now left to the discretion of the states.” http://wapo.st/NS8rYR

-- “Some Republican-led states indicated Thursday they are seriously considering opting out,” the Wall Street Journal’s Louise Radnofsky, Thomas M. Burton and Jennifer Corbett Dooren report. “The federal government will pick up the entire cost of the expansion for the first three years. After that, it will pick up 90% of the cost and leave the remaining 10% to states. While that leaves only a small share for states, many have argued even that's too much given their tight budgets.” Among the states considering ditching the Medicaid expansion: South Carolina, Mississippi, Nevada and Virginia. Twenty-six states were plaintiffs in the lawsuit overturning the expansion, but some of them may go ahead with the increased benefits anyway. http://on.wsj.com/LFfSC8

JOY OF VICTORY, AGONY OF DEFEAT – POLITICO’s Kate Nocera spent the day scurrying between the court house steps and the Capitol. She writes: “At a House Democratic caucus meeting shortly after the news broke, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi took a call from President Barack Obama. Standing in front of the room, Pelosi asked lawmakers to ‘greet the president.’ They did so with thunderous applause, according to a Democratic aide. … Many staffers who had worked on the law became emotional during the meeting.”

-- “[W]ithin hours, the somber mood turned to defiance, as Republicans resolved to turn the court’s ruling into an electoral win in November. We ‘quickly got on the same page,’ said Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.), calling the ruling a ‘slam dunk’ for the party in November.” http://bit.ly/OHoHOM

PENCE: HEALTH CARE LIKE 9/11 -- Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), who’s running for governor back home, compared the Supreme Court’s ruling to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks during a closed-door meeting of House Republicans, POLITICO’s Jake Sherman reports. Pence immediately apologized for his comments: “My remarks at the Republican Conference following the Supreme Court decision were thoughtless. I certainly did not intend to minimize any tragedy our nation has faced and I apologize.” http://politi.co/LGq8Mh

PAUL: IT’S STILL UNCONSTITUTIONAL – I write for POLITICO: “Sen. Rand Paul doesn’t think the Supreme Court gets the last word on what’s constitutional. The Kentucky Republican belittled the high court’s health care decision as the flawed opinion of just a “couple people. ‘Just because a couple people on the Supreme Court declare something to be ‘constitutional’ does not make it so. The whole thing remains unconstitutional,’ the freshman lawmaker said in a statement. ‘While the court may have erroneously come to the conclusion that the law is allowable, it certainly does nothing to make this mandate or government takeover of our health care right.’” http://politi.co/N1ssta

WU: UNLIKE ME, OBAMACARE WILL STICK AROUND -- GQ’s Marin Cogan caught up with former Rep. David Wu outside the Supreme Court. “Wu looked serene, even a little wistful about the court's decision, holding his jacket in the crook of his arm as the sun beats down on the crowd. Like the expelled kid who hangs out in the high school parking lot on graduation day, Wu wanted to take part in celebrating the protection of the law he helped pass. ‘It's going to be part of the American social landscape now,’ he said, smiling. ‘Nobody's going to take it back.’” http://gqm.ag/NGZlKR

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, JUNE 29, 2012, and welcome to The Huddle, your play-by-play preview of the day’s congressional news. Please send tips, suggestions, comments, complaints and corrections to swong@politico.com. If you don't already, please follow me on Twitter @scottwongDC. Robillard is @PoliticoKevin.

My new followers include, but are not limited to @mike_lucier and @JayStalnaker.

TODAY IN CONGRESS – The House is in at 9 a.m. with first votes expected between 10 and 11 a.m. and last votes between noon and 2 p.m. The chamber is expected to vote on the highways/student loans/flood insurance package and wrap up work on the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development appropriations bill.

The Senate’s in at 10 a.m. and is expected to vote on the highway package as well.

CONGRESS TO ‘DO-SOMETHING’ ON HIGHWAYS, STUDENT LOANS TODAY – The Associated Press’ Joan Lowy reports: “After being derided as a ‘do-nothing’ Congress, the House and Senate were poised to vote on a massive legislative package that overhauls highway and transit programs, salvages an estimated 3 million jobs and spares millions of students from higher interest rates on college loans. Congressional leaders were pushing for quick action Friday on the package, which also would financially shore up the federal flood insurance program. Two deadlines are looming: Federal highway and transit aid programs and the government’s authority to levy federal fuel taxes expire on Saturday, and interest rates on new student loans are set to double on Sunday. Lawmakers also were anxious to begin a weeklong recess. The burst of legislating comes just four months before the November elections, giving lawmakers achievements to show off to voters who have increasingly held Congress in low esteem.” http://bit.ly/Mv04D9

HOLDER HELD IN CONTEMPT: LEGAL FIGHT COULD LAST THROUGH NOVEMBER – John Bresnahan and Seung Min Kim write for POLITICO: “The unprecedented vote by the House to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress over the Fast and Furious scandal was the culmination of a tense clash between the executive and legislative branch, yet the legal wrangling may linger for months — and last until after the election. … The two Holder resolutions — one criminal, one civil — received overwhelming support from GOP lawmakers, with only two Republicans voting against the criminal measure. No Republicans opposed the civil contempt resolution. Seventeen Democrats voted for the criminal contempt resolution, in large part because the NRA pressured lawmakers to back it. Twenty-one Democrats backed the civil contempt resolution, which authorizes Issa’s panel to sue Holder and the Justice Department.

-- “Speaker John Boehner’s officewill now submit criminal referral against Holder to Ronald Machen, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, in the next few days, according to a Republican official. But since the Justice Department would have to seek an indictment of Holder — the same department he oversees as attorney general — no criminal charges will be brought against him. … As far as the civil lawsuit against the Justice Department, Issa’s aides have already begun discussions with the House General Counsel’s office about the legal action, although it is not clear when the suit will be filed.” http://politi.co/MtW1Xz

HOLDER’S RESPONSE -- Here’s what the AG had to say for himself: “Today’s vote is the regrettable culmination of what became a misguided – and politically motivated – investigation during an election year. By advancing it over the past year and a half, Congressman Issa and others have focused on politics over public safety. Instead of trying to correct the problems that led to a series of flawed law enforcement operations, and instead of helping us find ways to better protect the brave law enforcement officers, like Agent Brian Terry, who keep us safe – they have led us to this unnecessary and unwarranted outcome.” Holder was in Orlando, Fla. -- the happiest place on earth, according to Disney -- giving a speech to a legal conference during the vote.

WALK IT OUT -- Seung Min Kim writes: “In a dramatic show of defiance against the Republican-led House, dozens of House Democrats marched off the House floor as lawmakers cast a historic vote Thursday to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress. Led by civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), who walked hand-in-hand with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the Democrats blasted House Republicans for forging ahead with the vote, at one point collectively chanting ‘shame on you.’ … Democratic lawmakers were careful to say they weren’t alleging that race was motivating Republicans to find the first African-American attorney general in history in contempt. But the issue of race was an undercurrent, as several members linked Thursday’s contempt vote to Holder’s efforts to fight voter suppression nationwide.” http://bit.ly/Qy588X

THOSE WHO WOULD DEFY THE NRA -- “Eleven of the 25 House Democrats who’ve taken money this year from the National Rifle Association rejected the group’s call to support Thursday’s contempt vote against Attorney General Eric Holder,” Tarini Parti writes for the hometown paper. Eight of those Democrats voted ‘no,’ and three didn’t vote. http://bit.ly/Qy588X

DINGELL: TERRY FAMILY DIDN’T CALL -- “Michigan Democratic Rep. John Dingell’s staff told The Daily Caller on Thursday that it has no record of a phone call from the family of slain Border Patrol agent Brian Terry,” Matthew Boyle reports. “The Terry family released a statement saying that Dingell has abandoned the family by resisting the investigation in their son’s death in Operation Fast and Furious and by not responding to a phone call from one of Terry’s sisters looking for guidance. … During his House floor remarks, Dingell said he has plans to meet with the Terry family in the near future — in the next week or two, in person, in Michigan. When asked why the congressman has waited 18 months before agreeing to such a meeting, Dingell’s staff refused to answer on the record.” Terry’s family is originally from Michigan. http://thedc.com/OCqX8T

TWITTER TRAFFIC -- @PounderFile: With 11 Democrats voting to hold Holder in contempt, this vote will be more bipartisan than the one that passed ObamaCare.

87 DAYS -- According to House Minority Leader Steny Hoyer, that’s the average length of time between a committee contempt vote and a full one. Roll Call’s Jonathan Strong: “Pelosi compared the contempt vote with proceedings in 2008, when the Democratic-led House held two White House aides from the George W. Bush administration — counsel Harriet Miers and Chief of Staff Josh Bolten — in contempt of Congress. In the 2008 contempt proceedings, the Judiciary Committee, then led by Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.), approved contempt July 25, 2007, and the House approved contempt Feb. 14, 2008.” http://bit.ly/MZ9mSO

HOW IT PLAYED -- The other major papers ran banner headlines on the health care ruling, with the contempt vote stuck below the fold, or relegated to a mere refer on the front page.

--The Washington Post used a banner headline, with a one-deck subheadline: “Health-care law upheld: ROBERTS JOINS LIBERAL WING OF COURT, SAYS MANDATE IS A TAX.” There are two front page stories on the ruling, making room for a story on the contempt vote and a story on college football.

--The Wall Street Journal has two front page stories on the ruling, under the banner headline, “Court Backs Obama on Health Law: In a Surprise Ruling, Chief Justice Sides With Liberals To Uphold Insurance Mandate; Republicans to Press for Repeal.” The contempt vote is the top item in the “Nation and World” half of the paper’s “What’s News” section.

--The Los Angeles Times has a 1-line banner, “HEALTH LAW STANDS: Roberts Sides With Liberal Justices In Major Victory For Obama.” There are three A1 stories about the ruling, and a refer for the contempt vote.

--USA Today has a 1-line banner, “STILL STANDING” with a single story on the front page and refers to three stories inside the paper. The Holder contempt vote gets a front page refer as well.

TIERNEY BROTHER-IN-LAW UNLOADS -- After being sentenced to three years in prison for his involvement in an offshore gambling operation, the brother-in-law of Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.) alleged his politician relative knew all about his scheme. “He knew everything that was going on,” Daniel Eremian told The Salem News’ Julie Manganis. “He sat in the boxes with bookies at Fenway Park.” Eremian went on to call Tierney “the biggest liar in the world.” Tierney’s wife, Patrice, had entered a guilty plea to a lesser charge, and Eremian said she was thrown “under the bus” to save Tierney’s political career.

--Tierney denied Eremian’s allegations. “Daniel Eremian spent the last several years telling anyone who would listen, including a federal judge and jury, that he was innocent of charges the government accused him of committing,” a spokesman said in a statement. “Now he is claiming both to be innocent and that John Tierney should have known that he was guilty. His claims lack both credibility and logic.” Richard Tisei, the Republican challenging Tierney, directly challenged the congressman’s credibility. http://bit.ly/LxUies

CHAFFETZ WILL RUN WITH COURT’S IDEA -- In striking down a law making it a crime to lie about your war record (or lack thereof), the Supreme Court suggested a national database of winners of Purple Hearts and Medals of Honor might be useful in ferreting out frauds. One member is thanking the court for the endorsing the concept: “Rep. Jason Chaffetz of Utah’s 3rd Congressional District, who was duped last year into pinning a Purple Heart on a Korean War vet who didn’t earn the medal, said the high court’s endorsement of a public database is encouraging,” the Salt Lake Tribune’s Kristen Moulton reports. “He hosted a congressional hearing in February on the topic and is pressing a reluctant Pentagon to create such a database.” http://bit.ly/KGy8Xt

DWS OPPONENT SEES DRAWBACKS OF GUNSLINGING -- Joe Kaufman, a candidate running for the GOP nod to take on DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, accidentally shot himself while practicing his draw in the mirror, according to Miami gossip columnist Jose Lambiet. While using a .40 caliber Smith & Wesson short barrel MP40C handgun, Kaufman accidentally fired the weapon. The bullet struck his left index finger, traveled through his bedroom wall and settled in a bathroom wall. “I was handling a gun that was fairly new,” Kaufman told Lambiet. “I didn’t know there was a bullet in the chamber. I was careless. It became a teaching moment for me but it won’t stop me from supporting the right to bear arms.” http://bit.ly/MBYNYM

ISSA CAN’T SIT IN ON TRADE TALKS -- Reuters’ Doug Palmer reports: “U.S. trade officials on Thursday told a Republican lawmaker at the center of a legal fight with the Obama administration he cannot sit in on trade talks next week in San Diego between the United States and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Mac Campbell, assistant U.S. trade representative for congressional affairs, told Representative Darrell Issa in a letter that his request to observe the negotiations was denied, but he and two members of his staff would receive credentials to attend the event as ‘stakeholders.’” Issa was seeking more information on how the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership’s intellectual property provisions would impact the internet. http://reut.rs/MEr3Iy

THURSDAY’S TRIVIA WINNER – A lot of correct answers yesterday, but Jon Deuser was first to answer that Rep. Jose Serrano (D-N.Y.) learned to speak English by listening to Frank Sinatra records.

TODAY’S TRIVIA – Rep. Mike Pence was forced to apologize Thursday for comparing the health care ruling to the 9/11 attacks. Huddle reader Eric Wilson sent me this question a couple months ago: Which now-former member of Congress was with President George W. Bush at Booker Elementary School in Sarasota, Fla., on the morning of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks? First to correctly answer gets a mention in the next day’s Huddle. Email me at swong@politico.com.

THE NATS’ LINE – The Nationals scored double digits for the third consecutive game – a franchise record – but it wasn’t enough to hold off the Rockies. Colorado edged Washington 11-10 in a game that went into extra innings and ran more than four hours long. The Atlanta Braves host the Nats at 7:35 tonight.

WEATHER -- Very hot, very humid. Actual temperatures in the high 90s, but a few thunderstorms are possible, according to ABC 7’s Brian van de Graaff.

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