Since 2008, an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. Nothing is for sale, and this not a Profit and Loss report either. They're boring.

Saturday, 13 October 2012

A lead of six in some sports may not be much, but it's useful in tennis and not bad in baseball. 6-0 was the lead the Washington Nationals held after three innings versus the St Louis Cardinals this morning, and off the scale as far as my baseball bible (The Book - Playing The Percentages in Baseball) is concerned. This was game five of the series, tied at 2-2, and the worst thing about a big lead early on, is that it's early on. Plenty of time for a comeback, and who can honestly expect players to give their all when comfortably ahead? It's human nature to start looking forward to the next round, in this case a series against the San Francisco Giants, but it happens in many other sports too. Perhaps it happens in politics as well!

A small amount traded as low as 1.02, not a 1.01 'gubbing' as someone on the Betfair Forum claimed, but decent amounts at 1.03 and above. You can guess the ending by now. The Cardinals scored one in the 4th, 2 in the 5th, 1 in the 7th and 1 in the 8th to make it a 6-5 game, before the Nationals added one more in the bottom half of the 8th, and take a two run lead into the ninth innings. Just three outs needed, and with two down and one to go, they blew it. The Cardinals tied it up, added two more, kept the Nationals out in the bottom half of the ninth, and that was all she wrote for the regular season's best team. Defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, and a lot of 1.0x backers wishing they'd stayed in bed.Back to politics, where there is a saying that a week is a long time. It's been a little over a month since Obama was at 1.47 to win the election, and has traded since then as low as 1.21. Unfortunately the first debate performance was a little weak from Obama, and he is now up to 1.55, based I imagine on a poor poll in key swing state Florida. Two more debates to come and just 24 days to go.I was also fully braced to pay the new Super PC this week, with the portal reporting Total Charges at 20.04%, but I must be missing something as there was no deduction this week.The Super PC portal does state:

As of 01 October 2012, had you
always incurred Premium Charges at 50%, you would be considered to have
generated total charges of £222xxx.xx which is equal to 72.2% of your lifetime
gross profits at this time. Therefore, you will not incur Premium Charges until
you have won at least £137xxx.xx.

Which is a little confusing. I have won at least £137k. Does it mean that I need to win at least 'another' £137k or what? Anyway, whatever the reason, I'll take the break and hold the wolves at bay for another week at least. I can almost feel the enthusiasm flooding back.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.