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NFL Picks

CFL Picks: Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders

This Sunday at Mosaic Stadium in Regina, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats square-off against the home team Saskatchewan Roughriders in the 101st CFL Grey Cup Championship. Who should we be backing with our free pick here?

Last season Toronto made an
historic run to a Grey Cup title as a .500 team, but this time around the
Tiger-Cats are the team in the East Division stirring things up in the playoffs
after going 10-8 straight-up (9-9 against the spread) in the regular season.
First, they eliminated Montreal in a 19-16 grinder as 3.5-point home favorites.
Last Sunday, they knocked-off the defending champs 36-24 as 4.5-point road
favorites. Hamilton now needs just one more road upset to match the Argonauts
with an improbable title run of its own. It has gone 5-5 SU on the road this
season with a profitable 7-3 record ATS in those 10 games. The total went OVER
in last week’s game against Toronto after staying UNDER in seven previous games.

The key to a Tiger-Cats’
victory in this game will undoubtedly be one final lights-out performance from
quarterback Henry Burris. He led the CFL
in passing yards this season with 4,925 while completing 65.8 percent of a
league-high 567 attempts. Burris was held to just 204 yards passing in the win
over Montreal, he was unstoppable against the Argonauts with 371 yards and
three touchdowns in this past Sunday’s win.

Saskatchewan Overview

Saskatchewan appeared to be
destined for this game with an 8-1 straight-up start to the season but a
September meltdown with a 0-4 record both SU and ATS brought it back down to
earth. Since that point the Roughriders have gone on a 5-2 SU run in their last
seven games that includes a 29-25 victory over British Columbia as 4.5-point
home favorites in the West Division Semifinals to go along with last Sunday’s
stunning 35-13 upset of Calgary as five-point underdogs on the road.
Saskatchewan is 3-2-2 ATS during this seven-game stretch and the total has stayed
UNDER in seven of its last nine games.

Much like Hamilton, the
Roughriders’ success in this game will hinge on the arm of their quarterback, Darian
Durant. He has been a huge part of this offense’s success this entire season
with 4,154 passing yards and a league-high 31 touchdown throws. He threw for
270 yards and two scores in the win over the Lions and came right back with 280
yards passing and three touchdowns in Sunday’s victory over the Stampeders. The
Roughriders also have a potent rushing attack which could end up being the
difference in this contest. Running back Kory Sheets was second in the CFL in
rushing this season with 1,598 yards and he was able to add another 245 yards
on the ground in the two playoff games.

Hamilton is 7-1 ATS in its
last eight games on the road and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against a team
with a winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five
road games.

Saskatchewan is 3-9-2 ATS in
its last 14 games overall and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six home games. The total
has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 14 playoff games.

Head-to-head trends in this
matchup has Hamilton at 6-21-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings with the total has
staying UNDER in four of the last six games between the two. Saskatchewan
earned the sweep both SU and ATS this season with a pair of victories in a
home-and-home series in July. The total stayed UNDER in both contests.

Hamilton vs. Saskatchewan Free CFL Grey Cup Pick

Hamilton will be hard pressed
to follow Toronto’s lead with a SU upset in Sunday’s title game, but it is more
than capable of keeping this contest a one-score game deep into the fourth
quarter. The Tiger-Cats bring a ton of momentum into this game which makes them
extremely dangerous, but in the end it will not be enough. Saskatchewan ends up
hoisting the Cup at the end of this one, but the free CFL pick is Hamilton plus
the 5.5 points.