News and notes from each week of NASCAR racing using a Las Vegas oddsmaking perspective

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Dale Earnhardt Jr. tops the Final Talladega Driver Ratings

Not too much gained from practice and qualifying

LAS VEGAS – The space is normally reserved for conveying what happened during practices and how those speeds might be relative in finding who has the best opportunity to win on race day. At just about every track, what happens in practices is a huge factor when making a final decision on what drivers to wager at the sports books.

At Talladega, there is no need to look at either of Friday's two practice sessions. If you’re still unsure what drivers have the best chance of winning Sunday’s Aaron’s 499, then you might want to sit this one out -- or close your eyes and randomly pick anyone. The practices are so meaningless that only 27 drivers participated in the final session, not only because there was nothing to be gained, but also because of fear that a wreck in a meaningless session could force them into a backup car. If the teams feel practice isn’t important, then neither should we.

Because nothing has changed from when we did our first Talladega write-up on Tuesday, my advice is to review why we liked certain drivers. Most of the reasons stem from what we saw at Daytona during speed weeks, plus past history in restrictor-plate races. Some drivers just have a knack for these type of races, like David Ragan and Jamie McMurray; others are becoming respected in them, like Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Because Talladega is such a crapshoot, some might say this is a good time to take the week off from wagering – but this race is just too damn fun to not have any action.