SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT
MISSION TO RWANDA

16 February 1998

MISSION HIGHLIGHTS

Despite an increase of 14 percent in the 1998 A season food crop production
over last year’s A season the output in per caput terms reaches
only some 88 percent of pre-crisis levels.

A one month delay in the onset of rains limited an otherwise significant
expansion of cultivated area, while the ensuing excessive precipitation
resulted in flooding in the valley marshlands and reduced yields of some
crops.

Malnutrition among children under-five remains at high levels and the situation
is deteriorating among recent returnee populations.

Food aid requirements for the first semester of 1998 are estimated at 82
000 tons of cereal equivalent; of this, some 70 000 tons have already been
pledged,with the remaining 12 000 tons uncovered as a result of
increasing insecurity in north-western prefectures and land transport bottlenecks
in the region.

There is an urgent need to overcome input supply bottlenecks, especially
for seeds and cuttings; this is a top priority for the coming season but
must be addressed within a longer-term rehabilitation framework. FAO has
launched a programme to produce quality seed in 1998 and provide agricultural
inputs to the most needy population.

1. OVERVIEW

Since the tragic civil strife in the first half of 1994 that severely upset
Rwanda’s fragile food security situation, FAO and WFP have assessed the
food crop and supply situation on a semestral basis, coinciding with the
country’s two major crop seasons. Recently, these assessments have been
undertaken in two phases: In the first phase, a Government-led national
team supported by donors undertook a pre-evaluation of the situation, followed
by a second evaluation phase performed by a joint FAO/WFP Mission. This
approach was deemed necessary because since the mid-1990s the country has
been without a functioning agricultural statistics service and both Government
and donors needed guidance as to the extent of external food assistance
required to avert severe food insecurity and malnutrition.

Within this framework, a national team led by the Ministry of Agriculture
and assisted by national staff of FAO, WFP, the European Union, USAID and
other donors undertook, during December 1997, a pre-evaluation of the prospects
for the 1998 season A crops due to be harvested in January/February 1998.
It covered 22 communes selected from all 11 prefectures. Where security
conditions did not permit pre-evaluation mission visits, the team relied
exclusively on the staff in the prefecture offices. For the second crop
assessment phase, a joint FAO/WFP Mission visited the country from 10 to
24 January 1998 to complement, amplify and verify, in the light of the
most recent agro-climatic developments, the pre-evaluation results. The
Mission visited all seven prefectures for which security clearance was
granted, selecting one to two communes per prefecture on the basis of agro-ecological
sampling procedures, in addition to the provincial capitals of the prefectures.
These communes were different from those selected for the pre-evaluation.
The Mission thus effectively enlarged the earlier sample by 50 percent,
utilizing an abbreviated assessment procedure. As far as the four omitted
prefectures - Ruhengeri, Gisenyi, Cyangugu and Kibuye - are concerned,
the Mission relied on the questionnaire responses obtained during the pre-evaluation
phase.

The Mission involved staff engaged in the pre-evaluation, thus ensuring
a degree of continuity in the entire assessment process. It further associated
with its two field teams two staff members from the Ministry of Health,
including the Head of the Nutrition Service. The Mission consulted the
officers of the prefectures’ regional agricultural services and the heads
and agricultural staff of the communes, held group and individual meetings
with farmers, inspected fields, undertook market surveys, talked to customs
officials at border points to gain an understanding of official and unofficial
transborder trade with neighbouring countries, and visited Nutrition and
Health Centres and Supervisors at prefecture and commune levels, as well
as hospitals. The Mission made full use of the pre-evaluation results,
but also made its own adjustments, particularly in the light of the possible
effects on yields of the unseasonably prolonged rains, which extended into
the third dekad of January. While in some prefectures the Mission arrived
at different forecasts as compared to the pre-evaluation, its national
food crop forecast for the 1998 A season is largely consistent with that
of the December evaluation.

The results point to a significant increase in cultivated area compared
to the 1997 A season, including the opening up of new land frontiers not
cultivated before the crisis years, essentially in the recently created
prefecture of Umutara. Total food crop production is forecast to increase
by 14 percent over last year’s season A. Compared to the pre-civil war
reference year of 1990, current production is estimated to be 6 percent
less. A comparison with the average of the years 1989-93 puts the current
production forecast at that period’s level. All in all, Rwanda’s food crop
production is on the way to recovery. Yet, two caveats are in order. First,
there are now more Rwandans who have to feed themselves than before the
civil strife; on a per caput basis, current production is only some
88 percent of the 1990 pre-war level, implying that substantial food deficits
persist. And second, if the unseasonable rains persist beyond the time
of the Mission, production estimates will have to be revised downwards.

On the basis of its supply and utilization estimates, the Mission forecasts
a food aid requirement of 82 000 tons of cereal equivalent for the first
semester of 1998, of which 70 000 tons appear to be covered by pledges
already made or donor indications given for the first half of this year.

2. FOOD SECURITY IN THE
MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT OF RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT 1/

2.1 Recent Population Developments

Rwanda is preparing the road towards reconstruction and development after
the tragic civil strife of 1994, during which close to one million people
lost their lives. The last 18 months have been characterized by the massive
return of refugees, who had left the country at the time of the recent
crisis. Over half of them had sought refuge in the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC), one-third in Tanzania and the rest in Burundi and Uganda.
That influx followed the earlier return of Rwandans who had fled the country
in several waves since 1959. These population movements had a profound
impact in terms of food insecurity and development problems.

Rwanda’s population is now beginning to stabilize in the sense that
these massive movements are coming to an end. However, they have given
way to internal displacements resulting from the precarious security situation
in the North-western prefectures, where insurgents disrupt the lives and
development activities of the inhabitants, as well as to some influx of
Congolese refugees. A recent socio-demographic survey puts the mid-1997
population at 7.66 million people. This is about 5 percent below the estimates
available last year. The annual growth rate is now estimated at 2.84 percent.
Almost 95 percent of the population lives in rural areas. And with little
more than 26 000 km2 of national territory, Rwanda is among
Africa’s most densely populated countries.

2.2 Macro-economic context
and objectives

Rwanda’s gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to some US$ 1.4 billion
in 1996. Some 38 percent originated from the agricultural sector; services
contributed 44 percent and industry 18 percent. GDP per caput was
US$ 165, or 70 percent of the level of the late 1980s. For 1997, an increase
of 13 percent of total GDP has been estimated. Rwanda’s external debt at
the end of 1996 was US$ 1.4 billion.

As the Government strives to move from emergency and immediate reconstruction
measures towards sustained long-term development, it has placed on top
of its agenda the dual objective of ensuring food security and increasing
rural-sector incomes as the principal means of improving the living conditions
of its people. Priority measures to this effect were outlined in the Government’s
position paper to the World Food Summit held in Rome in November 1996.
As a starting point, the Government is giving high priority to increasing
food supplies. A recently prepared agricultural strategy towards 2010 emphasizes
major changes in land tenure, land utilization and production systems,
as well as the relationship between agriculture and other economic sectors.
This overall priority is supported by measures concerning the other two
food security dimensions of food supply stability and access to food. The
latter are the centrepiece of the "Global Action Plan for Food Security"
adopted at a seminar held in Kigali in January 1998.

Key recommendations from this seminar include: (i) tax relief for the
agricultural sector; (ii) the need to restore the rural sector’s physical,
human and social capital; (iii) the promotion of private sector storage;
(iv) creation of agriculture-related and non-agricultural employment; (v)
restriction of food aid to needy groups targeted through participatory
approaches; (vi) creation of a market information system; and (vii) establishment
of a national committee for the co-ordination and follow-up on food security.

3. FOOD CROP PRODUCTION

Rwanda’s main staple foods are bananas and roots and tubers, followed by
pulses and cereals, notably sorghum and maize. Bananas and a good part
of the root crops as well as vegetables are harvested throughout the year,
assuring a degree of food supply stability. For the remaining crops, there
are two major cropping seasons. Planting for the first season (season "A")
is mostly in September/October, with harvesting in January/February. Beans
and maize are the most important "A" season crops. Season "B" planting
takes place in February/March for harvesting in June/July. Sorghum is the
main crop, but there is also significant production of pulses. In volume
terms, the "B" season is normally somewhat less important than season "A".
In the so-called "wetlands" or marshland areas (marais) in the valleys,
there is also a small "C" season, following immediately the "B" harvest;
this is mainly devoted to sweet potatoes and vegetables. Its production
is generally included under the season "A" harvest.

Estimates of food production continue to be severely constrained by
the absence of a government agricultural statistics service, which ceased
to function in the mid-1990s. Earlier FAO/WFP missions strongly recommended
the gradual re-establishment of such services, and tangible steps in this
direction are expected to materialize in the course of this year. Until
such services are again in place, estimates are essentially based on qualitative
field survey approaches, which are interpreted in the context of pre-crisis
statistical parameters, rather than on quantitative, statistically representative
methods.

3.1 Food Crop Production
in 1998 A Season

The Mission confined its work to assessing the 1998 A season food crop
production and supply. Any attempt at forecasting prospects for the remainder
of the year are of little practical value, given the uncertainties arising
from such factors as continuing changes in the country’s security situation
and related intra-country population movements, the potential impact of
the prolonged rains, which continued through January, on the planting for
the 1998 B season and the inadequate statistical information.

3.1.1 Planted area

Planted area is estimated to have significantly increased in 1998 A
season as compared to last year’s "A" season - in the order of 15 percent
- rising to some 650 000 hectares or 94 percent of the pre-crisis reference
year of 1990 A. Comparisons with the 1990 reference year need to take into
consideration that new land frontiers have been opened up in the recently
created Umutara prefecture, partly using former National Park and Hunting
Reserve lands there. Expansion of cultivated land has been considerable
in Kibungo, Gitarama and Byumba, reaching or exceeding 1990 A levels. These
prefectures experienced a large influx of returnees last year. Generally,
an important element in cultivated land expansion was the resumption of
work on previously abandoned banana plantations and new banana plantings.
By contrast, cultivated land in prefectures with major security problems
such as Cyangugu, Gisenyi, Ruhengeri and Kibuye is around or almost 30
percent below pre-crisis levels.

The increase in cultivated area could have still been larger had it
not been constrained by a number of factors. First was the security situation
in parts of the country. Second, the one-month delay in the onset of the
season’s rains discouraged some farmers from planting scheduled longer-cycle
crops Third, problems of seeds and cuttings constrained planting as well
as yields, despite an international donor programme to provide seeds. These
problems were of a triple nature: inadequate availability of seed, late
arrival of seeds, and sometimes unsatisfactory seed quality. And fourthly,
a manpower scarcity put a break on the expansion of cultivated land. This
factor appears surprising considering the heavy influx of returnees, especially
last year. Explanations of this phenomenon include the fact that a large
number of households are headed by females who have to divide their working
time between agriculture and many household and family care chores; the
tens of thousands of prisoners who rely for their subsistence on the delivery
of food by family members, notably by female household heads; and the manpower
required for the construction of homes and the rehabilitation of other
essential infrastructure.

3.1.2 Yields

The rainfall patterns of the 1998 A season have negatively affected
certain crops, while benefiting others. As noted above, rains commenced
in mid-October instead of September, a one-month delay, and were initially
irregularly distributed. The rains then continued regularly and often in
excessive amounts, causing flooding in many marshland areas in nearly every
prefecture; particularly affected were parts of Kibungo, Rural Kigali,
Butare and Gitarama. Although only 10 percent of the total cultivated area
is estimated to have been flooded, some farmers report the loss of their
entire crop. Unusually heavy rains continued well into the third dekad
of January.

Among the negative effects of the abundant rains and related humid conditions
were fungal diseases, excessive weed growth and reduced sun exposure. Particularly
affected were the yields of beans (root diseases, black fly) and potatoes
(mildew). A continuation of the unseasonable rains could reduce yields
further. Lack of quality seeds and cuttings also had a yield-depressing
effect in many areas. In general, yields of sorghum, wheat, beans, Irish
potatoes and sweet potatoes are estimated to have declined in comparison
to last year’s season A. On the other hand, yield improvements were observed
for bananas, maize, rice, peas, groundnuts, soya, taro, yams and cassava.

3.1.3 1998 A production

Total food crop production in the 1998 A season is estimated at 2 194
227 tons, an increase of 14 percent over 1997 A (Table 1). This includes
77 400 tons of cereals (some 18 percent less than 1997 A), some 110 000
tons of pulses (an increase of seven percent over 1997 A, mainly as a result
of significantly increased plantings ), 1.4 million tons of bananas (+25
percent) and some 656 000 tons of roots and tubers, about the same as in
last year’s season A.

The current season’s production falls short of pre-crisis levels (1990
A) by some 6 percent. If one chooses a more broadly based pre-crisis period
as reference, e.g. the average of 1989-93 A, this season’s production is
just at the pre-crisis level. From a purely production viewpoint it would
appear that food production is gradually returning to what it was before
the civil strife. Yet, there are now more Rwandans who need to feed themselves
than five to ten years ago. Thus, on a per caput basis, current
production is approximately 12 percent less than in 1990, before the crisis.
This raises serious concerns about Rwanda’s food security situation, assuming
that the country’s economic conditions do not permit it to fully compensate
the per caput production shortfall by commercial imports. In addition,
one needs to consider that even before the civil strife Rwanda’s food security
situation was not satisfactory; any deterioration is thus all the more
serious.

The situation naturally varies from one prefecture to another. Table
2 shows the estimated 1998 A food crop production by prefecture, and the
following regional analysis highlights the specific situation in each of
them.

1/ Includes peas in the case of the 1989-93 A average.2/ Includes soya in the case of the 1989-93 A average.

4. REGIONAL ANALYSIS

4.1 Butare

The heavy loss of lives in 1994 in the prefecture of Butare is still felt
today in terms of a relatively scarce labour force, which constrains the
recovery of cultivated area to pre-crisis levels. This constraint is particularly
serious in the communes of Mayaga (Ntyazo, Muyira and Muyaga), Ruyinya
and Nyakizu.

The preparation for the 1998 A season was also been hampered by a scarcity
of agricultural inputs, notably bean seeds and cassava and sweet potato
cuttings. The emergency input programme of the international community
distributed some 230 tons of bean seeds to the most vulnerable agricultural
households, which however, at 7 kg per household, fell far short of requirements,
covering only about one-third of needs. Some supplies arrived too late
for use in the current season.

As elsewhere in the country, the onset of rains was delayed by about
one month, until 20 October. Heavy rains in late October and November then
caused flooding in the Kanyaru valley, destroying a large part of the bean,
sweet potato and rice in the marshlands. They also created conditions conducive
to the development of common diseases on beans.

Given the prevailing agro-climatic conditions, yields of beans are expected
to decline compared to last year’s A season, but the increase cultivated
area is estimated to more than compensate for this decline, leading to
an increase in production. Bean prices in the markets surveyed by the Mission
were found to be some 60 percent above last year’s corresponding period
(240 against 147 Frw/kg), well above the increase in general inflation,
which may be estimated at 20 percent. On-farm stocks were negligible, and
the small quantities stocked by traders originated from neighbouring countries,
particularly Burundi.

Table 2: Rwanda: Food crop production forecast for the 1998
A season by prefecture (tons)

The general health and nutrition situation appears to have deteriorated
over past months, aggravated by infectious and parasitic diseases. Cases
of marasmus and kwashiorkor were observed in the areas of Maraba, Nyakizu,
Gishanvu and Ruyinya.

4.2 Gikongoro

This prefecture has been affected by a shortage of labour due to emigration
of people towards urban centres in search of more remunerative employment,
although this migration has been reduced by the current security situation.
Migration has been more significant, particularly in the two communes of
Rwamiko and Muguba. In the remaining 11 communes, only 70 percent of the
agricultural land is estimated to be occupied. Nevertheless, cultivated
area increased over the previous season A, following last year’s arrival
of returnees.

Supplies of seeds and cuttings have been particularly scarce this season:
only 20 tons of seed potato were made available to farmers.

Rains commenced late by one month, but were then especially abundant,
with 350 mm in November/December against an average of 250 mm. The ensuing
floods destroyed crops in the marshlands of the Mwogo valley.

Diseases have particularly affected beans and potatoes. Overall food
crop production is forecast to be some 20 percent below last year’s A season.
Food prices in the markets visited by the Mission were significantly higher
than at the same time last year.

The food security and nutrition situation gives rise to great concern,
having visibly deteriorated in recent months. This is particularly true
for the commune of Rwamiko.

4.3 Gitarama

Both cultivated area and production are estimated to have increased. Out
of 130 000 farm households, 40 000 have benefited from the free distribution
of inputs by the international community.

Rains followed much the same patterns observed in other prefectures.
Severe flooding destroyed sweet potatoes in the communes of Murama and
Kanyegenyege; beans, soya and sweet potatoes in Nyabarongo; and beans and
sweet potatoes in Akanyaru.

Food prices have soared, increasing by 60 percent in the case of beans
and tripling for a number of other food products in the main markets of
Gitarama, Musambira and Ruhango.

The health and nutrition situation remains precarious.

4.4 Rural Kigali

The security situation in some parts of the prefecture hinders the movement
of seasonal labour and thus contributes to labour shortages. This in turn
slowed the expansion of areas under cultivation.

Generally, Rural Kigali experienced the same delay in the start of rains
as the rest of the country, as well as the problem of flooding later in
the season.

Bean seeds and cassava and potato cuttings were generally scarce. However,
vulnerable farm households benefited from various emergency input programmes.

The performance of beans is mixed. It is considered satisfactory in
the eastern and southern communes while considerable declines are expected
in the upland communities. Major production increases vis-à-vis
1997 A are forecast for sweet potatoes, taro, yams and cassava, as well
as bananas and groundnuts.

The health and nutrition situation continues to be precarious, with
a tendency towards deterioration.

4.5 Byumba

Overall, food crop production in the prefecture of Byumba is showing sustained
improvement although, compared to 1997 A, pulses and cassava were reduced
due to excessive rains and associated diseases, as well as an inadequate
supply of seeds and cuttings. Cereal production, notably that of sorghum,
maize and wheat, is expected to register significant increases. Banana
production is also forecast to increase, but fusarium infection is constraining
such increases.

Food prices have soared, due in part to the arrival of Congolese refugees.

The nutritional situation among the recent returnees is a matter of
serious concern.

4.6 Umutara

Cultivated areas have significantly increased in this recently created
prefecture. Humanitarian aid has provided substantial amounts of inputs
(seeds, fertilizer, hoes), although with significant shortfalls in sweet
potato and cassava planting material.

Production prospects for all crops, except beans, are good. Some crop
damage from wild animals has been reported in newly cultivated areas.

As in other prefectures, food prices are generally well above previous
year’s levels. After a prolonged dry period followed by hail storms at
the onset of rains, banana prices have increased to a point where some
now consider this commodity as a "luxury item" for the better-off.

Some 20 percent of Umutara’s population are considered vulnerable. The
nutrition and health situation among recent returnees, especially young
children, is reported to give rise to particular concern.

4.7 Kibungo

Some 10 000 people returned in November and December 1997 from Tanzania
to this prefecture of about 710 000 inhabitants, settling for the time
being in the communes of Rusumo and Birenga.

Despite late and then excessive rains and other climatic difficulties,
food crop production is expected to improve over last year’s season A.
Overall, food production prospects in Kibungo are well above the national
average. Successful efforts to settle land disputes have contributed to
an increase in planted area.

Although strong winds and some incidence of disease caused some damage,
banana production is up in comparison to last year. Good harvests are forecast
for beans and groundnuts, despite the damage by heavy rains and associated
leaf and root diseases. Areas planted to sweet potatoes were greatly expanded,
and production prospects are very good.

Prices of bananas and cassava in particular have risen well above the
levels of last year’s A season, while those of beans are stabilizing.

Despite the prefecture’s good agricultural performance, malnutrition
is widespread and particularly affects the recently repatriated people.

4.8 Cyangugu

Late and then excessive rains caused crop damage in marshland areas. Generally,
beans have suffered from humid conditions and associated fungal diseases.
Hail and strong winds severely damaged crops in the communes of Cyimbogo,
Gisuma and Nyakabuye.

Cultivated area is only slightly above that of last year’s A season.
Area expansion has been constrained by limited availability of inputs,
especially seeds. Production prospects are close to last year’s A harvest.

Transborder trade with the neighbouring DRC has resumed. Local prices
remain at very high levels.

4.9 Gisenyi

The security problems in this prefecture over the past year have significantly
reduced agricultural activity. Moreover, yields, especially of beans and
potatoes, have been negatively affected not only by excessive rains, but
also by the lack of field maintenance. Gisenyi being traditionally one
of the country’s principal potato producers, prospects for this season
suggest a reduced harvest. In addition, the security situation severely
restricts movement of whatever is harvested. This could severely affect
potato supplies throughout the country.

The health and nutrition situation is reported to have deteriorated.

4.10 Kibuye

Insecurity persists in the communes bordering the prefecture of Gisenyi.

Rains have caused landslides in the commune of Mabanza and flooding
in Gitesi and Mabanza.

Insecurity, coupled with scarcity and very high prices of seeds, have
led to reduced planting this season, especially for beans and maize. The
production outlook for most crops is unfavourable compared to last year’s
A season. Markets are poorly supplied and prices are beyond the reach of
most of the population. Many households depend on food aid.

4.11 Ruhengeri

Insecurity has been a constant feature in this prefecture for over a year.
Apart from several thousand internally deplaced people (IDPs), a large
part of the population is forced to leave their homes and fields temporarily
in response to sporadic attacks by insurgents, mainly coming from the Parc
des Volcans in the north of the prefecture. On their return, people
often find their houses ransacked, food and seed stocks taken and fields
destroyed. In these circumstances, a regular pursuit of agricultural activity
becomes impossible.

Cultivated area is therefore significantly down from last year’s season
A levels, with the exception of bananas and taro/yams. Poor seed quality,
bad field maintenance and diseases are negatively affecting yields. Total
food crop production is forecast to be well below 1997 A levels.

Food prices are much above the levels of the comparable period last
year. Beans prices are further increased by transborder outflows into Uganda.

The nutrition and health situation is deteriorating, particularly after
the departure of the NGO community which used to distribute food and medicines.
The deterioration is particularly severe in the commune of Ruhondo.

5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

5.1 Food prices and access
to food

As noted throughout the regional analysis, food prices have soared in all
prefectures over the past 12 months. Chart 1 illustrates this by comparing
average national prices in Rwandan Francs/kg in the first half of January
1997 with the same period in 1998. The smallest increases - around 50 percent
- were recorded for sorghum, which had a good harvest in the 1997 B season,
and beans, whose prices had tripled during the 1997 B season due to sharply
reduced production. But prices of other staples doubled or almost tripled
during the January 1997-January 1998 period, starting with bananas and,
in an ascending order, potatoes, sweet potatoes, maize and cassava. These
food increases are well above the national inflation estimated during 1997
at about 20 percent in urban areas.

One way of interpreting these current prices is by setting them against
daily rural labour wage rates. In the first half of January 1998, the average
daily rate was Frw 336 (or just above one US dollar) with a range between
prefectures of Frw 200 to 500.

Prices fluctuate sharply between prefectures - an indication of the
deficiencies of the current marketing infrastructure, above all the lack
of integration of markets (Table 4). For example, sweet potato prices ranged
from last year’s levels in Cyangugu to a five-fold increase in Kibuye.
Cassava prices increased fourfold in Kibungo and Byumba, tripled in Butare
and Urban Kigali, and doubled in Cyangugu. Maize prices doubled in Cyangugu,
Gikongoro and Urban Kigali, but quadrupled in Kibungo. To an extent, these
differences are explained by recent population movements, but also by lack
of markets integration among prefectures.

These price developments have major implications for household food
security. Studies undertaken in 1997 by the Save the Children Fund (UK)
in Western Byumba, Gikongoro, Kibungo and Butare indicate that poor households
have to purchase up to 75-80 percent of their food needs in the market.
After accounting for market purchases and self-produced food, some households
will still be left with an unmet food deficit of varying size, which needs
to be met by food aid. The limited scope of these studies notwithstanding,
they clearly show the heavy dependence of poor households on market purchases
to meet their food needs and, thus, the dramatic impact of recent price
developments on household food security.

1/ First half of January 1997 and of January 1998Source: MINAGRI/ European Union - Market Price
List No. 66, First half of January 1998

5.2 Food supply/demand balance

Against the background of the above population and crop production assessments,
the Mission estimated food import requirements on commercial and concessional
terms and a food supply/demand balance for the first semester of 1998,
taking into account pre-crisis consumption levels as well as estimates
of the country’s internal stock position and its external trade in staple
foods.

Food consumption requirements are calculated on the basis of the historical
consumption of 33 kg of cereals per caput per year, 32 kg of pulses, and
188 kg of roots and tubers and 408 kg of bananas. Feed use of grains has
been negligible since the sharp reduction of the national livestock herd
during 1994. Other uses of grains include seed retention and losses (mainly
to pests in storage and in trading). Altogether non-food uses and losses
are assumed to account for 11 percent of cereals, 20 percent of pulses,
and 9 percent of roots and tubers. Losses for bananas and plantains are
estimated at 3 percent.

Opening stocks for cereals on farm and with traders were estimated as
equivalent to two weeks’ consumption, following a relatively good 1997
B harvest, plus 4 000 tons of food aid stocks in the country. For pulses,
the respective amounts were one week’s consumption plus 1 000 tons of food
aid stocks. Just prior to the 1998 A season, the Mission estimates, on
the basis of its field visits, that farm households only hold negligible
stocks of beans and cereals, while traders normally do not hold large stocks
of these commodities. The Government used to maintain working and small
reserve stocks through the parastatal National Food and Livestock Board
(OPROVIA), but this institution is at present not functioning. Closing
stocks are assumed to be drawn down to one week’s consumption for cereals
plus 5 000 tons of food aid and to be unchanged in the case of pulses.

In converting root and tuber and banana deficits/import requirements
into cereal equivalents, the Mission considered it unrealistic that consumers
would fully substitute cereals for such shortfall, but would meet the deficit
partly by substituting a variety of other foods. It therefore converted
only 50 percent of the shortfall into cereal equivalent, to be taken into
account in food aid requirement estimates. In the case of bananas, over
two-thirds of the production is consumed in the form of banana beer (mainly
by men) and, therefore, not easily substitutable for cereals in the household
food basket. Nevertheless, the small portion of the banana production consumed
cooked and as a fruit, with a higher calorie content, has been converted
into cereal equivalent.

Table 5: Food Balance January-June 1998 ('000tons)

Population 31/03/98: 7 830 000

Cereals

Pulses

Total cereals & pulses

Roots & tubers

Bananas

Domestic availability

91

116

207

656

1 351

Opening stocks

14

6

20

0

0

1998 A production

77

110

187

656

1 351

Total utilization

148

153

301

795

1 638

Consumption

129

125

254

736

1 597

Other uses/losses

8

22

30

59

41

Closing stocks

10

6

16

0

0

Import requirements

57

37

94

139

287

(Cereal equivalent)

57

37

94

21

10

est.commercial imports

18

18

36

31/

41/

food aid requirement

39

19

58

18

6

food aid grand total

82

of which pledged

70

uncovered deficit

12

1/ Cereal equivalent.

Commercial imports of cereals and pulses were estimated on the basis
of official statistics for the last three years, provided by the National
Bank of Rwanda (BNR), which bases its statistics on information from the
National Customs Office. In addition, the Mission assumed that 10-15 percent
of imports consist of informal, not recorded trade with neighbouring countries.
The Mission also considered that trade flows between Rwanda and Tanzania
may be constrained during the early part of this year due to the damage
to road infrastructure inflicted by recent floods in Tanzania. After reviewing
these various factors, the Mission estimates commercial imports in the
order of 18 000 tons for both cereals and pulses during the first semester
of 1998.

Within the framework of these various assumptions, the Mission’s estimated
food balance for the firstsemester of 1998 suggests an import requirement
of 57 000 tons of cereals, 37 000 tons of pulses, 21 000 tons of cereal
equivalent of roots and tubers, and 10 000 tons in cereal equivalent of
bananas (Table 5). After allowance for commercial imports, this would leave
a food aid requirement of 82 000 tons of cereal equivalent, of which 70
000 tons have already formally or informally been pledged for the first
semester of 1998, with the remaining 12 000 tons uncovered as a result
of increasing insecurity in north-western prefectures and, in general,
land transport difficulties in the region which are hampering food aid
distribution.

5.3 Emergency food aid

During the second semester 1997, some 59 000 tons of food aid were distributed,
including 36 000 tons of cereals and 16 000 tons of pulses. WFP’s share
of total food aid was about 75 percent. For purposes of comparison, food
aid during the first half of 1997 amounted to 110 000 tons.

This sharp decrease of almost 50 percent was due to the changed objectives
of the food aid assistance at the end of the emergency, following the return
of some 1 300 000 people in late 1996 and early 1997. General, free food
distribution virtually ceased as of June 1997. Since then the number of
new returnees has been insignificant. The total free food distribution
during the period July-December 1997 amounted to some eight percent of
all food aid.

The changes in the situation in the country are well illustrated by
the number of small-scale food-for-work projects initiated by WFP, aiming
at reintegrating the population into their normal activities. Some 47 percent
of food aid was devoted to the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector
and social infrastructure, as well as to house construction programmes.

However, there remains a large number of "vulnerable households" in
the wake of the civil strife in the first half of this decade. In fact,
over 26 percent of the July-December 1997 food aid was distributed to vulnerable
households. The main receiving prefectures were Kibungo, Gikongoro, rural
Kigali, Butare, Umutara and Gitarama. Other emergency food aid programmes
included selective child nutrition and nutritional rehabilitation programmes.

During the period under consideration, WFP provided some 7 000 tons
of food per month to 140 out of the country’s 152 communes. By the end
of December, WFP, in collaboration with the Government, had distributed
six monthly rations to 520 000 people.

At the beginning of the first semester of 1998, a significant part of
the current beneficiary population should have reached a reasonable degree
of food self-sufficiency through their own production and/or through other
sources of income. This trend is expected to continue in 1998. Efforts
in that direction will continue to be assisted by WFP at the same level
as the second half of 1997.

It is also important to maintain and reinforce close nutritional and
food security surveillance of the vulnerable population.

Particular attention will continue to be given to vulnerable groups
and households in the prefectures and communes expected to experience the
most severe food deficits and nutritional problems. To avoid creating dependency
among the beneficiary population, emphasis will be given to the implementation
of new food-for work projects.

Also, attention will continue to be given to the promotion of sustainable
household food security, the rehabilitation of basic infrastructure and
the construction of houses. An important aspect is the distribution of
"protective rations" aimed at assuring that poor farm households do not
use seed material for human consumption during the lean season.

Table 6 summarizes WFP’s projected food aid activities for the first
semester of 1998. They are subject to review and revision in the light
of the findings of the Mission.

Food aid stocks within the country at the end of December 1997 were
about 5 000 tons. In addition, WFP can draw on sub-regional stocks of some
50 000 tons.

5.3.1 Logistics and Security Issues

The torrential rains that have hit east Africa in the past three months
have caused severe logistical problems, which are exacerbated by ongoing
ethnic conflict. The main transport routes and railroads from Dar-Es-Salaam
(Tanzania) and from Mombasa (Kenya) via Kampala (Uganda) have been cut
off in several points, thus reducing the supply capacities. Under these
circumstances, WFP would be not able to assist the totality of the 500
000 to 600 000 people. WFP could be forced to reduce aid to Rwanda because
of the supply difficulties and will give priority to the most vulnerable
people.

Insecurity in most of the country, especially the Northwest Prefectures,
represents a major constraints hampering the good development of land under
cultivation. Also it creates severe disturbances to food aid deliveries.

5.4 Nutrition situation

Malnutrition, especially chronic protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) among
children under five, is a matter of great concern. Nation-wide surveys
conducted in 1995 and 1996, by the Government in collaboration with the
Tanzania Food and Nutrition Centre and UNICEF before the massive return
of refugees, suggest a rate of underweight children under five of about
30 percent. Stunting is estimated to affect over 40 percent of this age
group. The Mission estimates that malnutrition has been deteriorating in
five out of 11 prefectures over the past months. These developments are
particularly affecting recent returnees, where cases of marasmus and kwashiorkor
are not uncommon. The most important causes of malnutrition are household
food insecurity aggravated by soaring food prices, diseases such as malaria,
infectious respiratory diseases and diarrhoea. But it must also be pointed
out that malnutrition is even widespread in areas of good agricultural
performance and relatively favourable household food security. This points
to a lack of nutritional information and knowledge. Exclusive breastfeeding
up to six months is quite common, but weaning practices constitute a general
problem. Weaning is often abrupt, weaning foods are poor in protein and
micronutrients, and short birth spacing is an exacerbating factor in that
it shortens breastfeeding. Low birth weights are also reported to be widespread.

Rwanda has 285 nutrition centres, many of which are badly staffed and
malfunctioning. Supplementary rations distributed to mothers with malnourished
children are frequently shared by the whole family, thus not serving the
intended purpose. The Ministry of Health undertakes both preventive and
curative measures, but the record of malnutrition suggests that these are
insufficient.

It is the Mission’s recommendation that a major effort is required to
ensure participatory nutrition surveillance and a major effective IEC campaign
focusing on weaning practices. The nutrition centres need to be utilized
much more effectively.

6. IMMEDIATE AND MEDIUM-TERM
INTERVENTIONS NEEDED IN THE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SECTORS

6.1 Rebuilding early warning
and agricultural statistics capacity

The Mission strongly re-emphasizes the recommendations made by earlier
missions concerning the urgent need for re-establishing MINAGRI’s agricultural
statistics services. Such efforts can be considered as having three components:
(i) the immediate establishment of a simple early warning system based
on rapid rural assessment techniques; (ii) a second supporting element
concerns the rainfall statistics; only the Kigali station of the three
still operating stations provides regular statistics; the installation
of meteorological stations in the major agro-ecological zones appears to
be of great importance. (iii) the establishment of a longer-term fully-fledged
agricultural statistics capacity as discussed for some time now, with support
from USAID and Michigan State University. As a minor additional element
in the short-term context, donors may wish to support the Ministry of the
Interior in data processing and statistical analysis of the agricultural
part of its 1997 survey of communes (undertaken by the Service for Promotion
of Commune Development), which contains information on cultivated area
and yields that could be of use to the Ministry of Agriculture in the short
run.

It is urgent to carry out an assessment of the household food security
and nutrition situation in each prefecture (characterization of food insecure
households, location, number, and corresponding causes of malnutrition),
to identify the concrete measures likely to address these causes and institutions
concerned, to incorporate these measures in their activity plans and to
monitor and evaluate the situation.

This season’s experience has once again dramatically underlined the need
for establishing an efficient input distribution system, with special emphasis
on seed and cutting multiplication. Current efforts have proved to be unsatisfactory.
The multiplication and distribution of roots and tuber cuttings, in particular,
has traditionally been based on farmers’ solidarity mechanisms. The social
fabric underlying such mechanisms has largely been destroyed by the events
of the mid-1990s. In 1998, should adequate funding be granted, FAO’s specific
response to these priority needs will focus upon providing basic agricultural
inputs to the most needy agricultural households for the 1998 B planting
season, launching a quality seed production programme and assisting in
the reforestation efforts of the Government.

6.4 Implementing the agricultural
strategy and the global plan of action for food security

With the agricultural strategy towards 2010 and the global plan of action
for food security, the Government has adopted two important instruments
to put the country on the road to reconstruction and development. It merits
the full co-operation of the international community to move ahead with
their implementation.

This report is prepared on the responsibility
of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and unofficial
sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned
for further information if required.

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