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Opinion Contributor

Brace yourself for more, but panic is not a policy

The author writes that now is a time for steady and intensive diplomacy. | AP Photo

By SHIBLEY TELHAMI | 9/17/12 3:11 PM EDT

With all the protests and violence in Arab and Muslim countries generated by a despicable and demeaning film about Islam, here is a sobering prediction: There will be more such films and clips, they will be even more provocative, and they will generate even more violent reaction among Arabs and Muslims. And no matter who is behind them, many will see the hands of Israel and the United States.

Yet this is not time for panic but for steady and intensive diplomacy.

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This is an easy prediction to make. In the era of the information revolution, any 12-year-old can produce a short film and post it online. There is no shortage of racists, bigots or individuals with sinister goals.

And consider this payoff of a relatively cheap product with minor efforts: disruption of regional and global priorities, affecting U.S. relations with Arab and Muslim countries, influencing internal dynamics in the Middle East and possibly even affecting the outcome of U.S. elections. It is too easy and too tempting, even for those with low personal stakes — and especially for those with higher stakes.

The Arab and Muslim reaction is predictable enough. The people who mobilize and act violently are by no means majorities, but the issues of Islam and the prophet Muhammad touch raw nerves across Arab and Muslim societies so that meaningful calls for calm will remain limited. Coming after a decade during which Muslims felt their religion and values under assault, the empowerment of the Arab uprisings will most likely only bring more people into the public square — and some with more than peaceful anger. Who will stop them?

Two factors work against effective prevention. The first is a lack of leadership that commands true moral authority. The Arab world has long lacked leadership respected by the Arab public. That was certainly the case before the Arab Spring uprisings, when the vacuum of leadership Arabs admired was glaringly obvious in public opinion polls.

For different reasons, this remains the case now. The Arab uprisings have been unique in part because they took place without charismatic leadership — or even the usual need to rely on political parties and social organizations. That made them authentic, grass-roots-based and reflective of deep public aspirations. Essentially, they were leaderless.

Meanwhile, those who have been democratically elected since, like Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, have not yet established their credentials and moral authority. There is no Nelson Mandela to set the tone, though many are trying.

The second is that the norm established by the course of the Arab revolutions has restrained the state’s use of coercive means to stop demonstrators. Governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, with memories of hated regimes doing just that, are fearful of cultivating the same reputation when they are seeking to build their public legitimacy.

Even police and security forces, who suffered during the Arab revolutions for being instruments of the rulers against the people, have a built-in reluctance to intervene — particularly over an issue on which they deeply sympathize with the demonstrators.

So the norms established in the course of the mostly peaceful Arab revolutions have had the consequence of undermining the coercive power of the state — and thus the state itself.

Readers' Comments (17)

I think the t0wel-heads massing in groups is a good thing for the US of A. When they're in big groups, we can kill them more efficiently. It will take fewer bombs to do the job.

When these t0wel-heads refer to my country as The Great Satan, there is no room for discussion between us. There is no commong ground for us to reach for. Keep in mind that Allah does not have an air force, air craft carriers and nuclear submarines...but The Great Satan sure does.

On his only Official Visit to China in 2009, Obama was totally outmaneuvered and exposed for his lack of gravitas in Foreign policy - he looked small and ineffective!

His considerable short-comings are once again on display this week in his “weak” response to Religious extremism and violence in the Middle East, which he then compounded with his disastrous reversal statement on Egypt's status as an ally!

Obama's narcissism is so pronounced that he considers himself "the oracle" on Military and Intelligence matters, over-ruling his generals at will - despite only attending 43% of his Daily Intelligence Briefings. Why else did America squander victory in Iraq, cede the field to the Taliban in Afghanistan and now lose control of the Arab Spring - but due to the incompetence and inaction of Obama's dysfunctional Leadership!

Obama missed the biggest opportunity to thwart Iran's hegemony by sitting on his hands during the Iranian Spring in 2009!

Obama watched as the Iranians took to the streets - he has watched as Bashar al Assad oppresses and kills thousands of his own people in Syria - and Obama is paying the price of his of inaction today in the greater Middle East.

Perhaps he should have attended each and every one of his Daily Intelligence Briefings instead of appearing at only HALF of them - and the total collapse of the Obama Doctrine in the Middle East is the result!

From China to Iran - Syria to Russia - From Egypt to Mexico and Brazil to Pakistan - Obama has allowed America to look weak with every encounter.

He constantly shows disrespect to America's closest friends. He dismisses India - Shows overt disdain to Britain and Israel - Obama pulls back on promised Defense capabilities to the Czechs and Poles - he complicates and “slow-walks” Free Trade Agreements with South Korea and Columbia and pushes the Canadians to offer their Energy Resources to the Chinese.

While the National Media is off in some alternate Universe chasing down the timeline of Mitt Romney's comments in relation to the events in Egypt - Secretary of State Clinton is still making apologies for some 2-bit video and Obama is stating that Egypt is NOT an ally in the "traditional sense" of Foreign Policy!

The real attack on America came in Libya and yet our MSM is still conflating Mitt Romney's comments on Egypt as the Political story of the year - when in reality, the Story of the Year is the unmitigated disaster of the Obama doctrine in the Middle East.

But the MSM stays focused on propping-up the “failed” Obama Presidency by selectively choosing the narratives that will tear down the Romney Campaign - this hypocrisy is now the standard by which we all must measure and question the information coming from our biased and pro-Obama National Media outlets.

The "mixed messages" coming from the Obama Administration and the State Department are empty and meaningless - they reflect the dichotomy of a Foreign Policy in the Middle East that is now in total disarray!

"The idea that this criminal and cowardly act was a spontaneous protest that just spun out of control is completely unfounded and preposterous," President Mohammed el-Megarif of Libya said to NPR. "We firmly believe that this was a precalculated, preplanned attack that was carried out specifically to attack the U.S. Consulate."

The attackers used the protesters outside the consulate as a cover, he says.

The Republican Party must mount up and proceed with a lot more vigor if they want to remove Obama from the White House. Mitt Romney must get out and state specifics re:

1. his specific positions on Social Security, Medicare, the economy, global terrorism including the future American armed forces strength and mission;

2. his proposed US foreign policy including his positions on:

a. ally and alliance relationships

b. our relationships with emerging nations,

c. his anticipated policies on the Mid-East/Arab Spring conundrum

d. his proposed American policy on freedom of trade and

e. his intentions re nuclear non-proliferation.

I’m mindful of course that virtually all of these entities require much study and advice before Gov. Romney can speak to them. But it's time to fish or cut bait!!

The major Issue we now are facing is the impact and importance of the Arab Spring and its resultant consequences. I’ve read that the swath of land from Tunisia, across Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula out to the eastern border of Pakistan, perhaps beyond, may very well be in the process of becoming the United Countries of Islam. As the political scientist Samuel Huntington has written, religion usually drives much of global warfare and it, religion, together with language are the two most important building blocks of a given culture.

Let's make it clear that in America we have freedom of speech and that not even the President can take that away. Lets make it clear that unlike the previous poster, all Americans do not hate Islam. Let's make it clear to these countries that we are only trying to help them and therefore they have a responsibility to contain the violent elements of their society that would do us harm. I think the President of Egypt has learned a hard lesson, you can't play both sides from the middle and you don't bite the hand that feeds you.

When I see all these young men running wild in the streets of the Middle East I can't help but wonder, where are their jobs programs. Until these countries start to provide jobs to their youth they will always have these problems. Just like here in the US, putting all your money into arms will not make us safer.

Romney's problem is not that he was wrong ... the Republican Party was his problem .... he couldn't get those guys to support him fully ..... it was shameless by Obama to fly to Vegas having a party, while the Benghazi Embassy was burning .... Romney was completely right with his remarks.

And not Obama tries to hide behind the lie that this was only the film.

========================================================http://www.reuters.com/article... /> … The Quilliam Foundation said that 24 hours before the Benghazi incident, al Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, distributed a video to militant websites in which he confirmed the death of his second in command, known as Abu Yahya al-Libi, and urged Libyans to avenge his killing … ============================================================ I could attach 20 remarks like this.

If I were to live on promises I would die fast European stock markets retreated and the euro fell against the dollar Monday as traders banked profits following last week's rally triggered by the US Federal Reserve's new stimulus programme. London's benchmark FTSE 100 index fell 0.31 per cent to 5,896.92 points in late morning deals, Frankfurt's DAX 30 dropped 0.24 per cent to 7,393.92 points and in Paris the CAC 40 shed 0.59 per cent to stand at 3,560.33. The Madrid market slid 0.65 per cent and Milan gave up 1.13 per cent. "European equity markets are starting the new trading week off on a somewhat weaker note pressured by lower markets in China on renewed growth worries," said ETX Capital trader Markus Huber. He added that "some moderate profit-taking after last week's impressive gains and disappointment that the EU meeting in Cyprus didn't yield any new steps in regard to combating the European financial crisis" also weighed. Despite Monday's falls, European markets have made strong gains over the past three months, with the FTSE up nearly 8.0 per cent, the DAX surging about 19 per cent and the CAC by 15 per cent. In foreign exchange deals on Monday, the euro slipped to $1.3102 from $1.3127 late in New York on Friday, when the European single currency hit a four-month high at $1.3169. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

My opinion is that there Should be MORE Movies that denigrate the Prophets of every religion. So let them protest, let them burn and soon there will be nothing left to burn and nothing left for them to eat or drink. For if any county were to cower to these ideological fanatics it would only make them feel like their beloved Allah is bringing the world down to their knees. Truth is there has never been any evidence of any god since we emerged from our primordial beginnings. The only god that exists is the god that spews from the mouths of people who believe there is a god.

Let them continue destroying their homeland until it reaches the point where their own families and countrymen get sick and tired of the temper tantrums. They need to grow up.

So if I say right now and I do... "Muhammad was a Pig" and "Muhammad's first words as a child was Oink Oink" what are they going to do? Burn the flag, set tires on fire, burn down buildings? Throw rocks? They are pathetically backwards ignorant people who were thrust into the modern world without a users manual. We can't expect people like that to assimilate into the civilized world by just giving them money and technology - not to mention weaponry. Those people "Need" dictators to keep them in check.

They killed our fellow American citizens and this will never happen again. We need to pull out of these rug dealer mentality countries and cut off the aid for at least five years. That will give them time to realize that they bit the hand that fed them. Their economy will crumble and the protesters will be begging us to help them with money. Let them starve for awhile until they understand what pathetic creatures they really are.

The sad part for me is that I am inherently peaceful but I have to live in fear because of all these imbecile people running around claiming their god is the true god and the most powerful god. All the religious people on planet earth are responsible for so much tragedy and death. The annals of human history are strewn with religiously based ideological atrocities. If we could rid ourselves of religion we might have a chance at living in peace.

I wish there was a "religion free" planet I could move to. I want out of this lunacy!

It should be noted that Obama's cancellation in Vegas would have hurt a great number of people. The people that spent small fortunes setting up the event, the people who set up the catering, the music, the wait staff and a myriad of other people outside of the main event such as the hotels, taxi, limosine and many other people. Obama did all he could concerning the Tragedy and it would not have helped to cancel something that was planned months in advance. Try to look beyond the surface!