Pressure on Russia to ratify the Kyoto protocol is intensifying amid fears in the European Union that Moscow may scupper the agreement to combat climate change by refusing to sanction it.

Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, promised last year that the ratification process would be under way by now in the duma, the lower house of the country's parliament, but no progress has been made.

The United States and Australia have already withdrawn their support, putting Russia in a crucial position. Its support will make or break the pact.

Gerhard Schröder, the German chancellor, and Tony Blair have separately written to Mr Putin in the past two months asking him to act, so far without success.

So concerned is the EU about the lack of progress that a delegation of the leaders of three countries will be sent to see Mr Putin in March.

Russian doubters about the value of ratifying the Kyoto protocol have organised a world climate conference for September 29 in Moscow. This conference is to "re-examine" the science on the issue, seen as casting doubt upon it, a position that will delight President George Bush, who wants to destroy the protocol.

Behind the conference are the two scientists who lead for Russia in the climate talks, Alexander Bedritski and Yuri Israel. Both are respected members of the Russian Academy of Sciences, but they apparently believe that climate change might be good for their country. They believe global warming might pep up cold regions and allow more grain and potatoes to be grown, making the country wealthier. They argue that from the Russian perspective nothing needs to be done to stop climate change.

The EU hopes that Mr Putin, having promised that the protocol would be ratified this spring, will bring his reluctant scientists into line. The energy and economic ministries are said to still be in favour of the treaty because they expect to make money out of it.

Under the complex rules Russia's support is essential if the protocol is to succeed. This is because developed countries that are responsible for 55% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions must ratify it for it to come into force. With the US and Australia refusing to sign, Russia's cooperation is needed to reach the required figure. All the other necessary countries have already ratified the pact or are doing so.

Currently there are 104 parties, representing over 44% of eligible emissions - Russian's emissions would automatically bring the protocol into legal force.

All the developed countries have a target to reduce emissions on 1990 levels by 2010 based on the protocol becoming law this year. If a country fails to reach its target by domestic measures, it is entitled to buy surplus carbon from any country that has already exceeded its target.

This provision could make Russia a lot of money because it already has more than reached its reduction target because of the collapse of the economy in the 1990s. Several countries not expected to reach their targets would be offering hard cash for Russian surpluses.

A second scheme under the protocol allows clean energy projects and carbon saving schemes inside Russian borders to be financed by other countries which can gain carbon credits as a result.

To try to counter establishment scientists who believe climate change could be good for Russia, a report on how the country will suffer will be circulated in the coming weeks. The report, produced jointly by scientists from Kassel University in Germany, Moscow State University and the centre for ecology and forest production of the Russian Academy of Sciences, contradicts the establishment view.

It says that previous calculations that more warmth and rain will be bring more crops for Russia fail to take into account regional variations. It says that only 15 out of the 89 administrative regions of Russia provide the rest of the country with much of its food.

Under the most likely climate change calculations these 15 areas in the south and west will suffer summer heat and droughts. The number of people affected by these droughts is 58 million. It will rise to 77 million by the 2020s and 141 million by 2070.

"The possibility of more frequent bad harvests is a threat to Russia's food security that should be taken seriously," the report says.

Although rainfall is set to increase in much of Russia, increasing river flows and groundwater levels, and incidentally the risk of flooding, the southwest will suffer the opposite. There is already pressure on water supplies because of large withdrawals for cities and irrigation. Lack of rain will reduce river flows even further.

The report concludes: "Our findings challenge the belief that climate change will generally benefit Russian agriculture and water resources. Instead they point out how extreme events such as droughts may become more frequent in key areas of Russia and may pose a threat to the food and water security of its people."

Dr Paul Jefferiss, head of environment policy at Britain's Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, said: "Russia's ratification is vitally important. If she doesn't go ahead, years of hard-won agreements will be placed in jeopardy, and meanwhile the climate continues to change."