This might be a little off topic, but I just wanted to say that I saw a video somewhere on this site about Skid Row in Los Angeles. OMG, I am a very sheltered person because I have NEVER seen anything like that in my life. I couldn't even believe that was a part of America, really. There are just streets and streets of tents and homeless people, druggies, prostitutes that go on for miles and miles. My boyfriend made an interesting statement about it, saying that people have lost their pride and dignity. Back in the day, people wanted to work and be good contributing members to their communities. Now, with drugs and other things, there are people who actually CHOOSE to be homeless and continue to do drugs or live a criminal lifestyle.

I presume you are referring to the debt securities issued by those states? If so, you do realize that many states and lesser jurisdictions issue debt that's "junk" simply because the issuers don't submit the issue for review. Are CA and IL public debt issuers among those entities? Off the top of my head, I don't know. Perhaps you do?

I presume you are referring to the debt securities issued by those states? If so, you do realize that many states and lesser jurisdictions issue debt that's "junk" simply because the issuers don't submit the issue for review. Are CA and IL public debt issuers among those entities? Off the top of my head, I don't know. Perhaps you do?

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Bonds ain't my strong suit so this won't take long. Rating review depends on the market the bond is being sold on. Private placement is generally unrated and sold to pension funds or locals in the case of munis (often a bad decision on both sides) or insurance company reserves with covenants out the wazoo. But CA backs local munis that are out and out junk and that is the problem. Some jurisdictions, not many, are on a first name basis with the local bankruptcy referee and know each other well. As to IL the state has the easiest portage/canal path between the Atlantic and Gulf coast continental divide and they have had at least six canal buildings but only three canals: the Michigan-Illinois, the vessel and sewerage and the seaway. This led to the commodities exchanges, which are the major revenue source of the state and they are the most easily moved businesses in the state since Baton Rouge/New Orleans is just as good a location.

If Trump's tax cuts really do cause states to default, then the national debt will take a massive hit. Slashing tax revenue at the same time as bailing out a bunch of states is going to be ugly.

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Cali is definitely headed for disaster.

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True. with the expansion of the Panama Canal and the possibility of a Chinese financed competing canal in Nicaragua the west coast is headed for much lower income. Appalachins west and north are coming. luckily state defaults have happened many times before and have had low or no effect on the rest of the country.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

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We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

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We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

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We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

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According to Moonbeam (quoted earlier in this thread I believe) that would be less than 1% of the shortfall in unfunded liabilities.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

Click to expand...

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

IL is tiptoeing to junk status and has been doing so for decades. CA is refusing to spend money for safety, is raising taxes and already has one of the worst out migration rates of any of the 50 States 5-15 states were in fiscal trouble under Obama and the Trump tax bill made the trouble worse starting today. IL or CA are the most likely triggers for 5-15 states being pulled into really deep trouble ranging from bond down grades to insolvency. So, IL or CA and 5 or 15 states getting into deep trouble. What's your call?

Click to expand...

We just legalized pot for adult recreational use and expect around a billion in revenue.

Click to expand...

According to Moonbeam (quoted earlier in this thread I believe) that would be less than 1% of the shortfall in unfunded liabilities.

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California needs a fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage to help make it work.

The basic problem with CA, IL, and most of the other states that are in big fiscal trouble is the public pensions, right? So, as I see it we'll be hearing a lot in the next few years (maybe sooner than later) about a bill in the US Congress to backstop those pensions. No mention by the Dems of bailouts or bankruptcies, but plenty of talk about the negatives to the economy if we don't do something. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't a campaign issue in 2020.

Will it ever happen? Not until we have the Dems back in control of both chambers of Congress and also the WH. Could that happen? Yeah, if the GOP doesn't get it's stuff together and Trump continues to alienate so many people. But we're talking about the single biggest and most important constituency of the Democratic Party, and it's going to be a war out there that the MSM will fight in a big way for the Left. And it' also one big reason why the make-up of the SCOTUS over the next 10 years will be super important, if that court ever becomes left-leaning then this country is fucked.

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