Breaking down Corzine’s education ad

Gov. Jon Corzine’s re-election campaign on Saturday released its latest ad, a mixture of pro-Corzine and anti-Chris Christie messages centered around education.

A few notes about the ad:

The narrator (again a woman) says, “While (Corzine) cut the budget by billions he invested more in public schools.” This year’s state spending is indeed down by billions — $3.9 billion less than the budget adopted in June 2008 for the ’08-’09 fiscal year, though that year’s spending was reduced due to the recession as the months unfolded.

Regarding that same line from the ad: Direct aid to school districts is increased by $276.5 million to $8.8 billion, but that includes $1.057 billion in federal stimulus aid. Without that money, education aid in the state budget is down by $780 million. In all, the state is spending $2.2 billion from stimulus funds that aren’t reflected in the $29 billion state budget. One other point: Overall K-12 education spending is down by $281 million, even with the stimulus money, because the contribution to the teachers’ pension fund was slashed.

The narrator says, “But Chris Christie? He’d shift tax dollars for our public schools to private schools.” Christie, like independent Chris Daggett, supports a legislative proposal to grant tax credits to businesses that donate to scholarship/voucher programs that provide money to students in failing schools in certain cities that can be used to pay tuition at other public, private or parochial schools. It wouldn’t directly shift tax dollars away from public schools, though public schools could wind up with less per-pupil aid if their enrollments dropped.

The narrator says Christie “would reject stimulus funds …” Christie has said he would have opted to reject any stimulus aid that compelled the state to spend money in the future it otherwise wouldn’t have; he’s never been specific about what types of aid that meant, allowing Democrats to interpret it to mean he — as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin did — would turn down education aid. Having said that, much of the $2 billion in education aid that has strings attached (as measured by the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services) has already been accepted for FY09 and FY10, meaning Christie couldn’t reject those even if he’s elected. Some of that stimulus will remain for FY11, however, and there may be additional stimulus aid coming from Washington.

The narrator continues, “… forcing layoffs of up to 35,000 teachers.” Here’s how that math works from the Corzine campaign: $2 billion in aid, at an average teacher salary in New Jersey of $57,000, equals 35,000 teachers. Here’s why that number’s not accurate: That presumes the entire impact on education spending, should that $2 billion not be available, would translate to layoffs of teachers, even though teachers’ salaries and benefits account for just 58 percent of school spending statewide. Moreover, the calculation doesn’t account for the reduced spending on benefits that would result from layoffs; it would take less than 35,000 cuts to get to $2 billion. And finally, the $2 billion is being spent over three years, not all in one year. So there would be accumulated savings from each separate layoff over time.

In documentation in support of the ad, the Corzine campaign says: “Even with stimulus funds, thousands of teachers in other states were laid off in dozens of other states because of plummeting state and local revenue.” Here’s a review of the federal stats for New Jersey: In the last four months, the number of government jobs in the state has declined by a seasonally adjusted 9,900, including 8,700 in local government — apparently, the data suggests, entirely in the schools.

Comments

About Michael Symons

Michael Symons has covered seven governors while working in Gannett's Statehouse Bureau -- a stint which actually only stretches back to 2000, but the door revolves quickly in New Jersey politics. He's co-author of the biography "Chris Christie: The Inside Story of His Rise to Power."

About the Authors

Bob JordanBob Jordan has covered state, county and muncipal governments for the past 10 years. He has also covered the gaming industry and has been a sports team beat writer for NHL, NBA and major league baseball teams.E-mail Bob

John SchoonejongenJohn Schoonejongen is state editor for Gannett New Jersey newspapers. He has reported and edited at New Jersey newspapers from Salem County to Passaic County, writing about everything from state politics to lost pigs on the Delaware Memorial Bridge. Born in Camden County, he still speaks with a southern New Jersey accent, much to his wife's annoyance.E-mail John

Michael SymonsMichael Symons has covered seven governors while working in Gannett's Statehouse Bureau -- a stint which actually only stretches back to 2000, but the door revolves quickly in New Jersey politics. He's co-author of the biography "Chris Christie: The Inside Story of His Rise to Power."E-mail Michael