Ranking Notre Dame's schedule: The should-be 'easy' games

Ranking Notre Dame's schedule: The should-be 'easy' games

It’s a trope trotted out by Notre Dame players and coaches every year: No matter who we’re playing, we’re going to get their best shot, and because of that, there are no “easy” games.

Between narrow wins over Virginia in 2015, Purdue in 2013 and Pittsburgh in 2012, or baffling losses to Northwestern in 2014 and South Florida in 2011, Notre Dame has played enough close games against mediocre-to-bad teams in recent years to lend credence to that best-shot belief about opponents around South Bend. Whether it’s because teams indeed are fired up to play Notre Dame or the Irish sometimes overlook these lower-tier teams — the answer probably lies in the middle — penciling in a game as an “easy win” doesn’t always turn out to be the case when that particular Saturday rolls around.

With that being said, as we turn our summer focus to the 2016 season, we’re ranking the difficulty of Notre Dame’s opponents this week. They’re divided up into three blocks: The “easy” games, the trap games and the tough games. Today, we’re starting with four games that Notre Dame, on paper, should have no trouble winning.

12. Army (Nov. 12 in San Antonio)

Notre Dame’s Shamrock Series comes against an Army program that has only had one winning season since 1997. The Black Knights are in Year 3 under coach Jeff Monken and haven’t had much success, going 4-8 in 2014 and 2-10 in 2015. Army ranked 108th in F/+ last year, and despite running the triple option, its rushing S&P+ ranked 90th.

One of Notre Dame’s biggest defensive successes last year was successfully smothering option offenses in Georgia Tech and Navy, outside of the first half of that October game against the Mids. While plenty of college football fans should be rooting for this downtrodden Army program to realize the success Air Force and Navy have had in recent years, there aren’t many signs that’ll be the case in 2016.

11. Nevada (Sept. 10 in South Bend)

Former Notre Dame assistant Brian Polian has done a nice job in Reno, leading the Wolf Pack to back-to-back seven-win seasons, including a win in the Arizona Bowl last year. While Nevada ranked 97th in F+ last year, this is a team that returns its starting quarterback (Tyler Stewart), a 1,300-yard rusher (James Butler), its three leading receivers (Jerico Richardson, Hasaan Henderson, Wyatt Demps) and tight end (Jarred Gipson) and every single offensive lineman with starting experience.

Defensively, there are quite a few losses along the line and in the linebacking corps, but nearly the entire secondary is back. Notre Dame probably won’t have too much trouble scoring on the Wolf Pack, but facing an experienced offense coordinated by a Chip Kelly disciple (Tim Cramsey) makes this a bit of a challenge. Add on the fact that this game is slapped in between the season opener against Texas and that big Sept. 17 game against Michigan State, and it could very well present some difficulties for Notre Dame — even though, if the Irish are serious about a playoff push, they should probably be able to cruise past a Mountain West team.

10. Duke (Sept. 24 in South Bend)

David Cutcliffe’s success at Duke is a testament to waiting out a plan — the Blue Devils lost 33 games from 2008-2011, but have reached a bowl game in each of the last four years (last season’s Pinstripe Bowl victory was the school’s first bowl win since 1960). This a solid program, but for a few reasons, is one that Notre Dame should still cruise by.

To start, Duke loses its two most experienced offensive linemen (including All-ACC center Matt Skura) and half of its regulars along its defensive line from a team that, while it went 8-5, only ranked 74th in F/+ last season. Star safety Jeremy Cash is gone, too, from a pass defense that ranked 99th in S&P+ in 2015.

But sustaining back-to-back-to-back-to-back bowl seasons isn’t easy at a place without much football history like Duke. They’re a team that, if Notre Dame is resting on its laurels following a win over Michigan State, could sneak up and give the Irish a scare in South Bend.

9. Syracuse (Oct. 1 in East Rutherford, N.J.)

Dino Babers very well could do good things at Syracuse, but it’ll probably take the former Bowling Green coach some time to get the right guys into upstate New York to run his powerful spread offense.

There’s already some talent here on offense that could challenge VanGorder’s defense, though some significant turnover on the offensive line (which lost 115 starts from last year’s group) could be a welcome sight for guys like Isaac Rochell and Jarron Jones. On defense, Syracuse returns a ton of linebackers and defensive backs, though this is a defense that was below average (70th in S&P+) last year.

That this game is being played on a neutral field — MetLife Stadium, as 2014’s meeting was — bumps this game up ahead of home games against Duke and Nevada. Syracuse may struggle to be a bowl team — having to play Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State and Louisville is an awfully rough deal for a first-year coach — but they'll give a few decent teams tough games this fall. We'll see if Notre Dame is one of them.

Is Brian Kelly out at Notre Dame if new QB Brandon Wimbush’s rocket arm doesn’t deliver for Irish in 2017?

Is Brian Kelly out at Notre Dame if new QB Brandon Wimbush’s rocket arm doesn’t deliver for Irish in 2017?

A 4-8 season in 2016 has put Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly firmly on the hot seat as he heads into his eighth season with the Fighting Irish.

In response to a tumultuous season, Kelly made major changes to his staff this past offseason by hiring new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

Mike Elko, who previously led Wake Forest to an FBS Top-40 total defense ranking, was hired by Kelly to be Notre Dame's defensive coordinator, and Chip Long — former offensive coordinator at Memphis — will now be in charge of the Fighting Irish offense.

However, the biggest change and arguably the No. 1 factor in Kelly's long-term future in South Bend, will be the person under center in 2017.

Barring an unforeseen circumstance, junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush — a former Rivals four-star recruit — will lead Notre Dame out of the tunnel in Week 1 vs. Temple.

Wimbush has only thrown five passes during his time at Notre Dame, but showed what kind of talent he has with a 58-yard rushing touchdown as a freshman in 2015.

I’m a big fan of Wimbush but that hasn’t always been the case. It’s not that I didn’t like him when I first scouted him before his high school career took off, but what I saw way back when was a kid who had a rocket arm and zero touch. But throughout his high school career he improved every time I saw him, showed much more than just a strong arm and flashed impressive poise for his age.

I’ve seen very limited action when it comes to Wimbush in college as he hasn’t played often and his spring game performance had ups and downs, but I believe in this kid’s ability. He can extend the play, has that great arm and just needs to get comfortable in the Notre Dame offense and make sure he doesn’t try to use that cannon to fit the ball into tight spots. I can see him having some growing pains this season, but as he gets more comfortable and learns to take what the defense gives him while keeping defenses off balance with his athletic ability, I think he’ll finish strong.

Two views of Notre Dame's 2017 signing day class

Two views of Notre Dame's 2017 signing day class

After a handful of late additions sent in their national letters of intent to the Guglielmino Athletics Complex, Notre Dame on Wednesday announced its 21-player recruiting class of 2017. There are a couple of ways to view the end of what was a volatile recruiting period for the Irish:

The glass-half-full take:

Two and a half months after wrapping up an embarrassing 4-8 season, Notre Dame's 2017 recruiting class ranks 11th by 247 Sports, 13th by Rivals, 13th by Scout and 16th by ESPN. In fact, Notre Dame actually ranks higher this year in 247 Sports' composite rankings (11th) than it did in 2016 (15th), when the Irish were coming off a 10-win season and a Fiesta Bowl berth.

Nearly scraping together a top-10 class after going 4-8 and losing four assistant coaches in Mike Sanford, Mike Denbrock, Scott Booker and Keith Gilmore is an impressive feat (Greg Hudson was only an interim defensive coordinator, and Brian VanGorder was far from a reliable recruiter). Plenty of kudos should be extended the way of recruiting coordinator/defensive line coach Mike Elston for heading up the program's efforts to keep what began as a pretty strong class from disintegrating.

Additionally, coach Brian Kelly pointed to the work of the 15 verbally-committed players who stuck with their pledges even as Notre Dame sustained a string of confounding losses and significant coaching turnover.

"We couldn't be where we are today unless we had 15 student-athletes that were committed to Notre Dame from the start to the finish," Kelly said. "Really during a very difficult season, this group of 15 really had to endure the things that would occur out there in recruiting during a very difficult season. Other schools reminding them about a very difficult season that we had. Then there was them sticking together because of why they wanted to come to Notre Dame."

Five of those players enrolled early — tight end Brock Wright, offensive linemen Robert Gainsay and Aaron Banks, running back C.J. Holmes and safety Isaiah Robertson, all of whom 247 sports rated as four-star recruits — and guys like tight end Cole Kmet, quarterback Avery Davis and offensive linemen Joshua Lugg never wavered, too.

That those players stuck together helped Notre Dame maintain a good base after the NCAA-mandated dead period lifted after the College Football Playoff title game last month, and new coaches Brian Polian, Mike Elko, Clark Lea, Chip Long and DelVaughn Alexander were able to bring in six late additions to the class: safety Jordan Genmark Heath, wide receiver Jafar Armstrong, kicker Jonathan Doerer, defensive lineman Myron Tagovailoa, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and defensive lineman Kofi Wardlow.

Armstrong, Tagovailoa and Wardlow all filled red-line positions of need, while adding more players to increase the pool of talent available to Elko is hardly a bad thing.

But the optimistic viewpoint here is the deck was stacked against Notre Dame in recruiting, and they actually turned out a pretty good hand thanks to a complete effort from everyone in the athletic department.

"In a lot of instances he had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it's going. There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future. So having Jack's involvement in this was absolutely crucial to get to where we are."

Now, for the glass-half-empty take:

Notre Dame had six players decommit, five of whom were at positions of need (defensive line, cornerback, wide receiver). Only four-star defensive end Robert Beal jumped ship before Notre Dame's fall tailspin was underway, and four of those six decommitting players were four-star recruits.

Notre Dame wound up replacing them with six late commitments, but five of those late-deciding players were three-star recruits and one (Doerner) was a two-star player. That's a good recipe for slipping from having a top-10 class to one on the outside looking in.

A common lament among fans is that Notre Dame has struggled to sign five-star recruits lately, and while it's true the Irish haven't done that since 2013 — Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield, as rated by 247 Sports — that's not as big an issue as it may seem. Just look at the disparity in college success between Smith and Redfield as a front-and-center example of how a five-star rating doesn't guarantee success in college. Signing more four/five-star recruits than two/three-star ones is far more important (more on that in a bit).

But the bigger issue with Notre Dame's 2017 class perhaps has more to do with its 2016 class. Notre Dame lost ace recruiters Tony Alford and Kerry Cooks after the 2014 season and re-worked its entire recruiting operation in response, which led to little oomph in a 2016 class that, based on the prior season, should've been much better than it was.

Last year's group could ultimately build a legacy as a less-heralded crop of recruits that went on to success — the strong debuts of 247 Sports three-stars in cornerback Julian Love and wide receiver Kevin Stepherson were good starts — but there's a long way to go there.

If 2016 was supposed to be a more transitional recruiting class, though, then 2017 represents a massive missed opportunity. Going 4-8 with all the right recruiting machinations in place is a glaring shortcoming for the future of the program — even a nine-win season could've allowed Notre Dame to hang on to some of those four-star players it lost and earn a top-10 class ranking.

The last two recruiting cycles have been, in that context, significant disappointment. While strong classes in 2014 and 2015 could prop up a playoff run as soon as this fall, the future of the program may not be on solid footing even if the Irish engineer a major turnaround in 2017. Next year's class likely will be critical to the long-term success of the program under Kelly, presuming he's still around to usher in the next group of recruits in February of 2018.