Thursday, 31 October 2013

October comes to a close, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of -0.3% and +0.8% respectively. In terms of price formation, the big monthly charts are simply offering a giant bear flag, whilst all indicators remain outright bearish into 2014.

Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

Recent price action has been somewhat confusing, but the bigger picture remains very much bearish.

Without getting wrapped up and overly focused on the micro-cycles (including, even the daily), the bigger outlook for the metals is still deflationary in nature.

I'm still looking for Gold 1050/950, with Silver in the low teens, if not briefly 12/10, before the next great multi-year up wave.

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Despite the Fed continuing QE at $85bn a month, the precious metals sold lower on the news, with Gold slipping around 1% from the earlier morning highs. By the close, Gold and Silver saw net daily changes of -0.1% and +0.8% respectively.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, it remains bizarre to see the metals so weak, whilst the Fed are throwing ONE TRILLION of new money at the US capital markets each year.
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Tuesday, 29 October 2013

The precious metals were somewhat weak across the entire trading day, with Gold and Silver closing -0.6% and unchanged respectively. Mid-term trend remains weak, but if the FOMC can inspire the metals to jump 2% tomorrow, then there is opportunity of significant upside into early 2014.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

It was a bit of a quiet day in the metals. Gold was weak, whilst Silver managed to actually close exactly flat.

Tomorrow is the FOMC, and even though the announcement is almost certainly 'no change'...I have to think the metals are primed for a very significant move.

Best guess...a late Wednesday surge, based on the notion that QE won't be reduced until spring 2014 at the earliest.

The weekly charts for the metals look bullish in the immediate term..although the monthly charts are still VERY bearish. So...short term bullish...mid term bearish across 2014/2015.
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Regardless..tomorrow should be pretty exciting in the afternoon, with some very dynamic price action.

Friday, 25 October 2013

The metals closed the week somewhat mixed, but across the week, Gold and Silver both saw net gains of around 2.8%. Near term trend remains bullish, and a further 7-10% higher is viable across the next month or two. Mid-term trend remains bearish, baring spot gold prices breaking and holding $1500.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So..a second week of gains for the precious metals of almost 3%, which is pretty impressive.

Near term outlook is indeed somewhat bullish, and if the FOMC do confirm no QE-taper until 2014 (seemingly now a certainty), then metals - along with the broader equity/commodity markets, should rally into November.
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Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Whilst the main equity market broke to new highs, the precious metals also managed to push higher, and appear to be in some kind of major up wave. Gold and Silver closed with gains of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively. GLD could rally into the low 140s, before new lows in 2014.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, good gains for the metals, and we are clearly breaking up and away from a significant multi-week down wave.

Friday, 18 October 2013

A relatively quiet end to the week for the metals - after the very strong 'weak dollar' induced gains of Thursday. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 3.6% and 2.9% respectively. However, the did term trend remains weak.

GLD, weekly2

SLV, weekly2

Summary

Suffice to say, it was a bit of a quiet end to the week for the precious metals. The main action remains in US equities which continue to build..and see accelerating gains - especially on the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.
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There remains a small chance that the metals will rally to early 2014, but even if they do, the bigger monthly charts are still very bearish, and highly suggestive of new lows before the next multi-year ramp..to Gold $2000..and way beyond.

Thursday, 17 October 2013

Today's closing gains for Gold and Silver were very impressive,although not entirely surprising. With a very weak US Dollar (-1.0%), the metals are being pushed higher. Gold and Silver closed with daily net gains of 3.1% and 2.6% respectively.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Today's gains are kinda interesting, not least in that they open up the small possibility of another multi-week wave higher into Dec/Jan'2014.

Regardless of any such bounce, lower lows still seem very likely next year.

Friday, 11 October 2013

Despite an equity market that has seen a near hyper-ramp since the sp'1640s on Wednesday, the precious metals have utterly failed to participate. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -3.1% and -1.9% respectively. The bigger weekly/monthly trends remain very much to the downside.

GLD, weekly2,rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow

Summary

Without question, the metals remain very bearish, and the weekly 'rainbow' charts are offering the fifth consecutive weekly red candle.

A break below the June lows looks very viable in the near term. Certainly, the underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is offering a possible snap lower, with price momentum going negative cycle within the next two weeks.

It is a very bearish situation, and when you consider the even bigger monthly charts, a break of the June lows does look highly probable.

Mid-term targets remain largely unchanged for 2014/15, with Gold in the $1050/950 zone, and Silver in the low teens, possibly as low as $12/10.
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*I exited an SLV short at the Friday open. Will consider another SLV short next week on any bounce.

Thursday, 10 October 2013

Despite the main equity market soaring, the precious metals remain very weak. Gold and Silver were moderately higher in pre-market, but saw increasing weakness across the day, settling lower by -1.4% and -1.0% respectively. Near term trend remains weak, with declines likely into the weekend.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, many of the infamous 'gold bugs' out there will doubtless be very bemused...and annoyed that whilst the main US market soars...the metals actually closed a fair bit lower.
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The daily charts are offering a simple downward channel..there is very little to be bullish about the metals into end-year.

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Gold and Silver both opened significantly lower, and despite a general market bounce into early afternoon, the metals remained weak. Gold and Silver closed with declines of 1.0% and 2.0% respectively. Further weakness is likely across the rest of this week.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily2

Summary

Suffice to say, despite the mainstream realisation that QE taper is off the agenda (now that the markets are getting rattled buy the shutdown/debt ceiling concerns), the metals remain somewhat weak.

Daily charts are offering a very clear downward channel..although some could argue it is merely a large bull flag.

Regardless of the short term trend, the broader weekly/monthly trends remain strongly to the downside.

Monday, 7 October 2013

Whilst the main US markets remain concerned about the continuing US Govt. shutdown - and associated debt ceiling issue, the precious metals managed some interesting gains. Gold and Silver closed with daily gains of 0.9% and 2.9% respectively. Mid-term trend remains to the downside.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The metals have started the week on a particularly positive note, but they are still very much holding within near term down channels, and until we see a few daily closes above declining resistance, the metals are vulnerable to snap lower - as has been the case repeatedly in the past few weeks.
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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is ticking higher, and the metals are set to go positive cycle with a bullish cross tomorrow/early Wednesday.

A failure for the metals to power higher across this week will bode for another wave lower.

Near term targets: GLD 122, SLV 20, those would be declines of around 3/5% respectively.

Friday, 4 October 2013

The precious metals saw further weakness this week, although there were some significant bounces along the way. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.9% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is somewhat difficult to discern.

There are a lot of good chartists/commentators out there looking for levels equivalent to mine (see below), but they are first seeking one further major multi-week wave higher..to levels of GLD 140/150s

The problem is that the even bigger monthly charts are still extremely bearish, and a further wave higher will be very difficult. What remains an especially weak sign is that despite the Fed continuing QE at $85bn a month, the metals are simply not doing well.
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Mid-term targets remain unchanged...with further lows expected in 2014/15. A key cyclical low of Gold 1000/900s, with Silver in the low teens, possibly even $10 an oz..before the next grand cycle begins.

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

The precious metals saw a significant bounce after the severe Tuesday drop. Gold and Silver closed with gains of 2.0% and 2.5% respectively. Despite the gains, the metals remain in significant multi-month down trends.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, a bounce was not entirely unexpected, but despite the strong gains today, the metals remain in broader weekly/monthly down trends.

The thing that so few seem to recognise, even if the metals did put in a key multi-month floor in June (which I doubt), it will take another 9-12 months until the underlying price momentum will get back to neutral, never mind bullish!

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Despite a limited US Govt' shutdown, the precious metals opened sharply lower (Gold falling $41 in pre-market), and showed absolutely no strength across the entire day. Gold and Silver closed with very significant declines of -3.5% and -2.7% respectively.

GLD, weekly2

SLV, weekly2

Summary

I have to say, I was very surprised to see the metals get hit so hard before the market even opened.

What was the excuse this time for the hammer being brought out? Govt. shutdown ? How about 'ohh, its a new month/quarter'? Or...'there is no fear trade'?

Whatever the reason, the metals are showing the same kind of weakness we have seen since April. Big drops, and a lack of any bounce.

Regardless of how the metals trade in the remainder of this week, today's price action is a very bearish sign for the rest of the year.
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Disclaimer: These pages (and especially all charts) are for informational purposes only. Most of the numerical data/calculations 'should' be correct. However, YOU make your own decisions as to if you think any comment or data point/chart is correct or not. All comments posted via Disqus/Google (or any other type) users may/may not be agreed with by yours truly.

I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.