Tracking Winter weather potential

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RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) - A potent upper-level low pressure storm system we are tracking from Texas will reach our region Thursday, with the center of the low tracking through the Carolinas to our south.

It appears the most likely track of this system will bring it far enough north to bring much of the state precipitation. The type of precipitation that falls in your neighborhood will depend on how cold the air is above you (in other words, what happens to the precipitation as it falls from the cloud to the ground). Far southeast Virginia will see mostly rain, changing to light snow Thursday evening. Rain changing to an initially non-sticking wintry mix will fall farther north into the Richmond Metro area (and in much of central Virginia). The precipitation extending as far north as a Charlottesville to Fredericksburg line will likely be in the form of snow only.

Even though an inch or two of snow may fall in Richmond during the day in that Winter mix, most, if not all, will melt as it reaches the above-freezing ground. However, with temperatures after dark falling to and below freezing Thursday night into Friday morning, snow sticking should occur (1"-3" looks feasible in central Virginia), and icy spots may form on roads for the Friday morning commute.

This is an evolving situation, and the Winter weather impacts we experience Thursday into Friday morning will depend on several factors: the arrival of deeper, colder air; the track of the low pressure system; and the timing of precipitation.

Click here for a drop-down menu of watches, warnings and advisories in our region.