Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Violence In Iraq, March 2016

Government
offensives in Anbar and Ninewa along with some large bombings led to an
increase in violence and casualties in Iraq in March 2016. In Anbar the Iraqi
forces continued to make gains in clearing out the Ramadi area and launched
several new operations in the province as well. In Ninewa an effort was made to
clear the Makhmour area. Faced with these campaigns, IS has turned to car
bombings against the Iraqi forces to try to stall their advances and terrorist attacks
against civilian targets, especially in Baghdad.

Attacks
had been going down in Iraq in 2016, but March reversed that trend. There were 598
incidents in January when the Islamic State launched a series of counter
attacks and terrorist bombings in response to its loss of Ramadi. Then there
were 549 in February, before going up to 665 in March, the highest amount since
August’s 684. The question is whether March was a blip like January or is IS
going to increase its operations during the summer like it historically has.
Since incidents have been going down overall since 2015 it is likely that even
if IS tries to pick up its operations in the coming months it may not be
sustainable.

Casualties
increased in March as well. There were 1,463 dead and 1,843 wounded. That was
up from 1,281 killed and 1,566 injured in February. Those figures compared to
the United Nations’ 1,119 dead and 1,561
wounded, and Iraq Body Count’s 1,073,which does not include soldiers, but does
cover the police, Hashd, and Sahwa in its count.

So
far this year there has been an average of 66.1 fatalities per day in January,
44.1 in February, and 47.1 in March.

The
Iraqi forces were operating throughout Anbar. They continued to clear the
Ramadi suburbs. They were also active in Thar Thar, Garma, Amiriya Fallujah,
Hit, Saqlawiya, and Kubaisa. The Islamic State’s main response was counter
attacking with car bombs and suicide bombers. Seven car bombs and 12 suicide
bombers found their targets. The government also claimed to have destroyed 36
car bombs, 45 suicide car bombs, and killed 58 suicide bombers. Because of
official exaggeration the real numbers are likely half that. In total, there
were 98 incidents, 343 killed and 161 wounded in the province during the month.
The Islamic State executed 111 people, and 150 ISF and Sahwa were killed and
wounded attempting to disarm IEDs in Ramadi.

For
most of March Babil was witnessing its usual low level of IEDs and shootings, but
then there were two mass casualty bombings. First, a suicide truck bomb left 61
dead and 95 wounded in Hillah. Then towards the end of the
month a suicide bomber detonated his device at a soccer match in Iskandiriya, which killed 41 and wounded
105. In March there were 33 incidents, 136 fatalities, and 306 injured. 75% of
the deaths and 65% of the wounded were due to those two explosions.

As
IS has lost territory it has increasingly turned to attacking the capital. At
the end of 2014 there was a huge spike in incidents, and then they have
fluctuated up and down from 2015-2016. Since October they have been going up
from an average of 7.0 per day to 7.6 in November, 7.7 in December, 8.5 in
January, 8.4 in February, and then 9.9 in March, the highest in three years. In
that month there were 307 incidents leading to 363 killed and 995 wounded. Since
2014 incidents have gone up from an average of 6.2 per day, to 7.4 per day in
2015 to 8.9 so far in 2016. Southern Baghdad has been the main target of IS
with 111 attacks in March, including a motorcycle bomb, 2 mortar attacks, 5
sticky bombs and 70 IEDs. As security has deteriorated, so has crime and
vigilantism. Major robberies, kidnappings, and bodies being dumped are
commonplace each week.

Basra
has also been unstable. There are constant tribal clashes and rampant crime.
Political violence between the ruling parties is also on going with an
education director being killed and an attempt made on a judge.

Violence
has been creeping up in Diyala as well. In November and December there were
only 0.7 incidents per day. Then they went up to 1.3 in January, 1.1 in
February, and 1.4 in March. For the month there were 46 attacks, 29 dead, and
18 wounded. The security forces were able to prevent three bombings when they
disarmed a car bomb, and arrested two suicide bombers. IS was able to fire
mortars on several towns and cities.

IS
also picked up its operations in Kirkuk, although they dipped a bit. Like
Diyala, there was an average of 0.7 attacks per day in December and January,
but then jumped to 1.7 in February, and 1.4 in March. In those last two months
IS started regular attacks upon the Peshmerga lines as well as carried out a
wave of mass executions in Hawija, the last district in the province still
under its control. In March, IS began firing rockets with chemical agents at
Taza. At the end of the month however, attacks dramatically tailed off. There
were 45 incidents total that killed 50 and wounded 106.

There
has been a wave of terrorist attacks in Turkey in recent months. In response,
Ankara has begun regular air raids upon northern Kurdistan bombing areas under
the control of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey claimed it killed 112
PKK fighters in two air strikes.

Ninewa
became a new focus of both Baghdad and IS. The insurgents were carrying out
regular attacks upon the Peshmerga lines, and fired chemical rockets upon
civilian towns. It also executed 272 people, mostly in Mosul. At the end of the
month the ISF and tribal fighters began an offensive in Makhmour to clear the
area of IS cells that were firing upon the bases there, including a Marine one
that was just built in March. As that operation got under way, IS counter
attacked with its usual mix of infantry assaults, suicide bombers, and car
bombs. 7 car bombs and 10 suicide bombers were able to hit the security forces.
They in turn claimed they destroyed 9 car bombs and killed 36 suicide bombers.
As usual those figures are inflated. These clashes led to 84 incidents, 387 killed,
and 199 wounded. The dead included 1 U.S. Marine, 1 Hashd, 3 Turkish Soldiers,
40 Peshmerga, and 41 ISF.

Salahaddin,
which was a major battlefield for months has been quieting down. There were an
average of 2.0 attacks per day in December, going up to 2.5 in January as IS
carried out attacks in the province in response to the loss of Ramadi, and then
went down to 1.9 in February and 1.5 in March. Almost all of the fighting in
the governorate was concentrated in the northeast in places like the Ajeel and
Alas oil fields in the Hamrin Mountains, the Makhoul Mountains, and the Baiji
district. Baiji was freed back in October, but in recent weeks there were
constant reports of clashes going on there. At the end of 2015 the Hashd that
have dominated security operations in the province were talking about clearing
out the last IS pockets, but then they were called away by Iran for the
Tehran-Moscow Aleppo offensive. Since then violence has leveled off, the
frontline has stalemated, and IS has been able to re-infiltrate into places
like Baiji.

The
number of car bombs has tapered off in Iraq in recent months. In December there
were 26 successful bombings, and then 36 in January because of the fight for
Ramadi. After that though there were only 9 in February and 18 in March. Almost
all of those were targeting the government’s forces with a few terrorist
bombings. There was 1 terrorist car bombing in Babil, 3 in Salahaddin against
the ISF and Hashd, and 7 each in Anbar and Ninewa against the ISF and
Peshmerga.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the politics, economics, security, culture and history of Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com