posted at 7:45 pm on April 3, 2012 by Allahpundit

Fully 98 delegates are at stake and Romney’s probably going to win nearly all of them. The polls in Washington and Maryland close at 8 p.m. ET, but don’t worry about that. It’s a foregone conclusion that Romney will win both and, maybe, crack 50 percent in doing so. (PPP’s Maryland poll from a few days ago had him ahead of Santorum 52/27.) Wisconsin, where the polls close at 9 p.m. ET, is shakier but that looks like a Romney win too. At last check, PPP had it 43/36, which is right in line with where most of the polls of the state have been over the past month. Santorum’s overperformed his polling before on election night so there’s a slim, slim chance for one last “Not Romney” hurrah, but this is where Mitt likely starts to wrap things up. Says RCP political guru Sean Trende:

What about Tuesday night? Here we are beginning to see signs of movement. The Maryland polling suggests that Romney should receive about 56 percent of the three-way vote, while [my demographic] model suggested 49 percent would be more in line with other states.

Similarly, Wisconsin should be a close race — akin to Ohio — with Romney receiving 43 percent of the vote. For a while, it appeared that Santorum would be exceeding expectations there. But Romney now leads by about eight points, with polls suggesting he should receive around 49 percent of the three-way vote. Again, this suggests an over-performance of about six-seven points.

If this happens, taken together with Illinois and Maryland, we might conclude that Romney really has managed to break out of his demographic rut, at least in the Midwest and Northeast. This is significant, given the large cache of delegates at stake in those regions (though many of these states have already voted).

In other words, the usual rules of the race — Romney wins urbanites, Santorum wins evangelicals, etc — seem to have relaxed a bit as Republicans slowly reconcile themselves to a Romney nomination. Tonight’s results could be further evidence of that. Santorum still leads by six points in his home state of Pennsylvania but I’ll be curious to see how those polls shift if Mitt cleans up today, and especially if he does better with rural voters than expected. Romney already has four paid staffers working PA and will send lots more tomorrow in hopes of finishing off Santorum there on April 24. If Santorum’s lead is already down to mid-single-digits, what’ll it be after Romney hits the trail there and starts spending ad dollars and gets the positive buzz of a trifecta in WI, MD, and DC tonight?

Update: Bad tidings for Team Sweater Vest from the early Wisconsin exit polls: Evangelical turnout is slightly down from 2008 and more than 80 percent of voters expect Romney to be the nominee. But what about Santorum’s withering attacks on RomneyCare and ObamaCare? Quote:

Though Rick Santorum tried to make the case in Wisconsin that Mitt Romney’s record on health care “uniquely disqualified” him to take on Mr. Obama on the issue, Republican primary voters are closely divided in whom they trust more to handle the issue. Almost a third trust Mr. Romney more to handle health care policy; almost as many have more confidence in Mr. Santorum’s abilities in this field.

That may reflect Mr. Romney’s particular situation when it comes to the federal health care law that came under intense scrutiny at the Supreme Court last week.

According to the WSJ, Romney’s also beating Santorum 51/38 among voters who decided in just the last few days. A quote to ponder from a Wisconsin voter while we wait for more: “I very much hope that he gets the nomination and we get this thing settled soon. These guys are kind of tearing each other apart in the process. I think it’s a circular firing squad at this point.”

Update: To no one’s surprise, Maryland and Washington are called promptly for Romney at 8 p.m. Stand by for exit polls.

Update: Here’s the Maryland exit poll. As Trende guessed, we’re seeing some demographic surprises. Santorum’s supposed to be the blue-collar candidate, and yet:

He’s also supposed to be the conservative candidate, and yet:

This is the one that’ll get attention tomorrow, though, assuming that these numbers hold (exit poll data will be adjusted throughout the evening):

Per the exits, Romney’s right on the cusp of 50 percent in the state.

Update: We’ve got nearly an hour until Wisconsin results and then probably an hour after that before the state is called, so chew on this important and worrisome poll data from Rasmussen in the meantime. Dude, I’m nervous:

A majority of Wisconsin voters now support the effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor.

Update: And that’s that: Fox News calls Wisconsin for Romney. Here’s the exit poll. Santorum did manage to win very-low-income voters and evangelicals (narrowly) this time, but Romney won conservatives and strong tea-party supporters. The end is near for Team Sweater Vest. And from what I’m hearing on Twitter, he may be close to acknowledging it: Apparently he referenced Reagan’s 1976 campaign, in which he finished second to Gerald Ford, in his concession speech. Is he shifting focus to 2016 now?

Update: Nope, turns out I’m wrong. Patrick Ishmael e-mails to say that Santorum’s been using the Reagan ’76 line for a few weeks at least.

Curious about the demos in WI. I think we will all know how soon Santo will drop out if he loses the very conservative/tea party vote. If Romney can start winning that demo, the states are just going to domino from there, even the more hostile states in May.

I live in Wisconsin and voted as soon shortly after it opened at 7- I was there at 7:20 and my ballot with the 84th one entered. If it continued at that rate during the day I would call it an unusually high turnout for a primary election here.

Mitt Romney was sworn in as President of The United States this morning. In other news, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have held a joint press conference wherein they once again vowed to fight on for the conservative majority and offer a grassroots alternative to whom they term as a Massachusetts moderate.

C’mom folks, not my dream candidate either, but it’s time. Now a$$clown is trying to bully the supreme court. Affirmative action has made him think he’s king, when in reality he’s the village idiot. Time to focus our fire and send him to the garbage heap of history.

April is Romney’s month. 90 delegates tonite and the only state in doubt this month is PA which is PROPORTIONAL. It will be mathematically impossible (rather than just improbable) for Santorum to get to 1144.
Does he drop out then or fight on simply to deny Romney the 1144 HE needs? Problem with that strategy other than personal political destruction, is that Romney will still get to 1144 under any plausible scenario…likely by Texas and certainly by California/NJ on 6/5.

If the PA polls start to go south on Rick after tonight, he needs to think clearly and drop out before being defeated AGAIN in his home state…and this time at the hands of his own party.

Also his old lady is on the biggest loser tonight. How appropriate, and I don’t even mean the weight, although having a badunka butt doesn’t help. Michelle on biggest loser. Just can’t make this stuff up.

Since this thread is open I can mention this. Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but very telling. My industry as I have mentioned here at HA before is covered up with liberals. I am rare, but with many of my liberal acquaintances I am appreciated as an honest Conservative. I had a meeting today on of all things 0care. After the meeting talk amongst us turned to politics as is normal for this particular group. About ten in the group. They are all ready to pull the lever against 0. They will vote Rmoney if he is the nom. 0 is screwed. Liberals are fed up for many differing reasons, but they are fed up all the same. Panic time for 0. This is going to be fun. Just thought I would share.

Since this thread is open I can mention this. Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but very telling. My industry as I have mentioned here at HA before is covered up with liberals. I am rare, but with many of my liberal acquaintances I am appreciated as an honest Conservative. I had a meeting today on of all things 0care. After the meeting talk amongst us turned to politics as is normal for this particular group. About ten in the group. They are all ready to pull the lever against 0. They will vote Rmoney if he is the nom. 0 is screwed. Liberals are fed up for many differing reasons, but they are fed up all the same. Panic time for 0. This is going to be fun. Just thought I would share.

Bmore on April 3, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Most liberals are lying as soon as their mouth opens. Will they let you peek over their shoulder. Trust but verify.

This may sound weird, but I’m making this election a collection election.
I am holding the Democrats accountable for the Maher’s, the LouisCK’s, the Olbermann’s and other atrocious personalities.
I call it the Palin election. I am “fighting” for her. She knew that Mitt would be the candidate and therefore her efforts are going to be at the local level.
I am fighting for her right and any other Conservative’s right to speak. Sounds silly, but I’ve called it the Palin election for awhile. It will take each of us going against our “morals” and voting for Mitt.
I look forward to trouncing Obama in ’12 and then rebuilding the GOP from within. It’s not a small task. :)

the only remineing question now is: when will the dem “establishment” pull the plug on him. to save themselves, and the “ideology”. they’re going to have to throw this all in his lap. to save themselves, attempt to anway. and the senate. like they did carter. he’s the probelm. it was good ideas, he was just too X, or Y, or Z. there will be a lot of fill in the blanks with obama. wonder whch ones they’ll start with. detached. couldnt even work with a dem congress. just too darn smart. too far ahead of his time. thats gonna be fun too. and when the truth telling comes, in Dec 2012 and jan 2013…oof. all the green room chatter, out in the open. almost feel sorry for BHO for whats coming.

About the “evangelical” vote: the anti-Mormon thing is much stronger in the Southeast than in the North. To assume that all evangelicals are going to vote Santorum is to engage in some stereotyping and assume some bigotry that probably doesn’t span all “evangelicals”. Some actually do separate their politics and their religion. In other words, a candidate can be a worse choice to govern even if their personal moral values are closer to mine or a better choice to govern even if they are different.

I don’t think that someone who tracks exactly with my choices in moral values is automatically more competent in the areas we need most right now. I don’t see Santorum particularly strong in the field of economics. I don’t see him having any particularly deep contacts with the national business community that will be needed to develop an economic plan that works with business to turn the economy around. I don’t see Santorum as having a foreign policy team of any great renown. I see Romney as likely developing a better energy policy and a better defense policy. Those have nothing to do with positions on abortion or contraceptives. I also see Romney as more likely than Santorum to have a well thought out plan to reduce the size of the federal government and delegate more to the state governments.

The only thing Santorum has is social issues and I think the Republican voters, evangelicals included, are often looking deeper than that at the problems that face us today.

….now come on!…which one of the Hot Air staff are you?….you can tell us now! You’ve played long enough! None of us know a lib this silly or stupid, and we are from all ages and backgrounds, economically and socially, and all ethnicity’s. Is it AP? Jazz? Ed doesn’t have time…(AND, HAPPY BIRTHDAY ED!) Come on tell us! It’s not Tina…Come onnnnnnnnnnn! Quit playing….

Since this thread is open I can mention this. Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but very telling. My industry as I have mentioned here at HA before is covered up with liberals. I am rare, but with many of my liberal acquaintances I am appreciated as an honest Conservative. I had a meeting today on of all things 0care. After the meeting talk amongst us turned to politics as is normal for this particular group. About ten in the group. They are all ready to pull the lever against 0. They will vote Rmoney if he is the nom. 0 is screwed. Liberals are fed up for many differing reasons, but they are fed up all the same. Panic time for 0. This is going to be fun. Just thought I would share. Bmore on April 3, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Thank you for this report. It’s nice to receive affirmation. Someone here who’s been trying to save the country – I can’t remember his name – has been saying for months that for every damned right wing (not conservative) fool who won’t support Romney because he’s not pure enough 10 Independents and conservative Democrats will flock to Romney.

Exactly and remember most people are kind of apolitical, they identify as dems or republicans socially, but really are not invested in politics until the reality of govt decisions hits them personally. You are going to see a lot of apolitical folks, blue collar dems and indies switch over to Romney this election. Obama has lost the middle, they arent coming back.

Exactly and remember most people are kind of apolitical, they identify as dems or republicans socially, but really are not invested in politics until the reality of govt decisions hits them personally. You are going to see a lot of apolitical folks, blue collar dems and indies switch over to Romney this election. Obama has lost the middle, they arent coming back.

nswider on April 3, 2012 at 8:23 PM

My ultra liberal sister said she would vote for Romney over Obama. Now she’ll probably change her mind 1000 times but for her even to say that made me have to sit down before I fainted.

Romney so far, with very few votes in, is taking Allegheny, Queen Anne’s, and Caroline counties. You can’t get much more rural than those. Santorum is carrying Garrett county but interestingly that might be because that far Western county of Maryland has close ties to his home area of Pennsylvania (you are more likely to watch Pittsburgh TV there than Baltimore).