nmm 22 4500ICPSR22780MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR22780MiAaIMiAaI
The Analysis of Budget Consolidations
[electronic resource]Concepts, Research Designs and Measurement
Georg Wenzelburger
2008-06-25Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR22780NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
Fiscal adjustments have been examined from different perspectives in the literature. However, the conceptual approaches to the analysis of budget consolidations vary substantially. Therefore different approaches to the analysis of fiscal adjustments are discussed in a first step. It is shown that the choices regarding the underlying concepts lead to specific research designs and influence the appropriate empirical method. In a second step, the determinants of budget consolidations are examined empirically in four different research designs for 23 industrialized countries in the 1990s. The analysis shows that the results vary depending on the method applied. However, economic variables seem to play the most important role in explaining the consolidation performance.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22780.v1
budgetsicpsreconomic growthicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic modelsicpsrfiscal policyicpsrGross Domestic Producticpsrindustrial nationsicpsrindustrializationicpsrpublic policyicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsWenzelburger, GeorgInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)22780Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22780.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01271MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01271MiAaIMiAaI
Case Study of a Currency Crisis
[electronic resource] The Russian Default of 1998
Abbigail J. Chiodo
,
Michael T. Owyang
2003-04-18Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1271NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
This paper uses a currency crisis framework to analyze the
currency devaluation and debt default of post-Soviet Russia in August
1998. The authors show that even though the Russian economy recorded
positive growth immediately preceding the default, the atmosphere was
reflective of an impending crisis. The authors then consider the
symptoms of a currency crisis -- specifically public and private debt
responsibilities, devaluation expectations, and contractionary
monetary policy -- and show that they were present in Russia at that
time. Three generations of currency crisis models are reviewed,
followed by speculation that the Russian default was a product not
only of fiscal deficits but also of a fragile financial system and
contractionary monetary policy. The authors address the possibility
that the usual prescription for a currency crisis, that is, increasing
interest rates, may have accelerated the default and that a
case-by-case prescription may afford a better solution than a blanket
policy of increasing interest rates in the face of devaluation.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01271.v1
monetary policyicpsrcurrenciesicpsrcurrency devaluationicpsreconomic crisesicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsIDRC II. Economic DataChiodo, Abbigail J.Owyang, Michael T.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1271Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01271.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR21582MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR21582MiAaIMiAaI
Changing Trends in the Labor Force
[electronic resource]A Survey
Riccardo DiCecio
,
Kristie M. Engemann
,
Michael T. Owyang
,
Christopher H. Wheeler
2008-01-10Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR21582NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The composition of the American workforce has changed
dramatically over the past half century as a result of both the
emergence of married women as a substantial component of the labor
force and an increase in the number of minority workers. The aging of
the population has contributed to this change as well. In this paper,
the authors review the evidence of changing labor force participation
rates, estimate the trends in labor force participation over the past
50 years, and find that aggregate participation has stabilized after a
period of persistent increases. Moreover, they examine the disparate
labor force participation experiences of different demographic
groups. Finally, they survey some of the studies that have provided
explanations for these differences.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR21582.v1
workicpsrworking womenicpsrcareersicpsrage groupsicpsreconomic conditionsicpsreconomic trendsicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsremploymenticpsrethnicityicpsrjobsicpsrlabor forceicpsrlabor (work)icpsrlabor marketicpsrminoritiesicpsrunemploymenticpsrunemployment rateicpsrwage earnersicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsDiCecio, RiccardoEngemann, Kristie M.Owyang, Michael T.Wheeler, Christopher H.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)21582Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR21582.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01275MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01275MiAaIMiAaI
Cost of Living Index for the American States, 1960-2003
[electronic resource]
William D. Berry
,
Richard C. Fording
,
Russell L. Hanson
2005-03-15Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1275NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The authors constructed a state cost of living index for
the 48 continental United States, measured annually for the period
1960 through 2003 (to update an index for 1960-1995 introduced in the
authors' May 2000 Journal of Politics article).
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01275.v1
consumersicpsrcost of livingicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsrexpensesicpsrfamiliesicpsrhouseholdsicpsrincomeicpsrtwentieth centuryicpsrworking classicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsBerry, William D.Fording, Richard C.Hanson, Russell L.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1275Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01275.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR22683MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR22683MiAaIMiAaI
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Consensus Forecasts
[electronic resource]
William T. Gavin
,
Geetanjali Pande
2008-06-10Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR22683NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members' forecasts or standard measures of consensus such as the mean or median. Rather, it continues to release the forecast information as a range of forecasts, both the full range between the high and the low and a central tendency that omits the extreme values. This paper uses individual forecaster data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to mimic the FOMC's method for creating their central tendency. The authors show that the midpoint of the central tendency of the SPF is a reliable measure of the consensus, suggesting that the FOMC reporting method is also a reliable measure of consensus. For the dates when both are available, the authors also compare the relative forecast accuracy of the FOMC and SPF consensus forecasts for output growth and inflation. Overall, the differences in forecast accuracy are too small to be statistically significant.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22683.v1
business cyclesicpsrGross Domestic Producticpsrinflationicpsrpolicy makingicpsrprice indexesicpsrconsumptionicpsreconomic conditionsicpsreconomic forecastingicpsreconomic growthicpsreconomic historyicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic policyicpsrexpendituresicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsGavin, William T.Pande, GeetanjaliInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)22683Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22683.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR22684MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR22684MiAaIMiAaI
Forecasting Inflation and Output
[electronic resource]Comparing Data-Rich Models with Simple Rules
William T. Gavin
,
Kevin L. Kliesen
2008-06-10Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR22684NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
There has been a resurgence of interest in dynamic factor models for use by policy advisors. Dynamic factor methods can be used to incorporate a wide range of economic information when forecasting or measuring economic shocks. This article introduces dynamic factor models that underlie the data-rich methods and also tests whether the data-rich models can help a benchmark autoregressive model forecast alternative measures of inflation and real economic activity at horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months ahead. The authors find that, over the past decade, the data-rich models significantly improve the forecasts for a variety of real output and inflation indicators. For all the series that they examine, the authors find that the data-rich models become more useful when forecasting over longer horizons. The exception is the unemployment rate, where the principal components provide significant forecasting information at all horizons.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22684.v1
business cyclesicpsrinflationicpsrunemployment rateicpsrconsumptionicpsreconomic activityicpsreconomic forecastingicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic modelsicpsreconomic policyicpsreconomic planningicpsreconomic trendsicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsGavin, William T.Kliesen, Kevin L.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)22684Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22684.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR25081MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2009 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR25081MiAaIMiAaI
Foreign Direct Investment, Productivity, and Country Growth
[electronic resource]An Overview
Silvio Contessi
,
Ariel Weinberger
2009-03-11Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2009ICPSR25081NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The authors review the empirical literature that studies the relationship between foreign direct investment, productivity, and growth using aggregate data, and focus on two questions: (1) is there evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and national growth? and (2) does the output of the "multinational sectors" exhibit higher labor productivity? The authors also
briefly discuss how the microeconomic evidence and a number of aggregation and composition problems might help explain the ambiguous results in this literature.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR25081.v1
domestic tradeicpsreconomic growthicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic policyicpsrexchange ratesicpsrexportsicpsrforeign investmenticpsrGross Domestic Producticpsrinflationicpsrinternational economicsicpsrinternational marketsicpsrinternational tradeicpsrlabor economicsicpsrmicroeconomicsicpsrNAFTAicpsrproductivityicpsrregulatory processesicpsrWorld Trade OrganizationicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsContessi, SilvioWeinberger, ArielInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)25081Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR25081.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01268MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01268MiAaIMiAaI
How Well Do Monetary Fundamentals Forecast Exchange Rates?
[electronic resource]
Christopher J. Neely
,
Lucio Sarno
2003-06-05Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1268NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
For many years after the seminal work of Meese and Rogoff
(1983a), conventional wisdom held that exchange rates could not be
forecast from monetary fundamentals. Monetary models of exchange rate
determination were generally unable to beat even a naive no-change
model in out-of-sample forecasting. More recently, the use of
sophisticated econometric techniques, panel data, and long spans of
data has convinced some researchers (Mark and Sul, 2001) that monetary
models can forecast a small, but statistically significant part of the
variation in exchange rates. Others remain skeptical, however (Rapach
and Wohar, 2001b, Faust, Rogers, and Wright, 2001). It remains a
puzzle why even the most supportive studies find such a small
predictable component to exchange rates. This article reviews the
literature on forecasting exchange rates with monetary fundamentals
and speculates as to why it remains so difficult.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01268.v1
econometricsicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic modelsicpsreconomic trendsicpsrexchange ratesicpsrpredictionicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsNeely, Christopher J.Sarno, LucioInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1268Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01268.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01284MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01284MiAaIMiAaI
Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time
[electronic resource]
Marcelle Chauvet
,
Jeremy Piger
2003-06-25Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1284NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
This paper evaluates the ability of a statistical
regime-switching model to identify turning points in United States
economic activity in real time. The authors work with a Markov-switching
model fit to real Gross Domestic Product and employment data that, when
estimated on the entire postwar sample, provides a chronology of
business cycle peak and trough dates close to that produced by the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Next, they investigate how
accurately and quickly the model would have identified NBER-dated
turning points had it been used in real time for the past 40 years. In
general, the model identifies turning point dates in real time that are
close to the NBER dates. For both business cycle peaks and troughs, the
model provides systematic improvement over the NBER in the speed at
which turning points are identified. Importantly, the model achieves
this with few instances of "false positives." Overall, the evidence
suggests that the regime-switching model could be a useful supplement to
the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee for establishing turning point
dates.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01284.v1
unemployment rateicpsrbusiness cyclesicpsreconomic activityicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic trendsicpsrGross Domestic Producticpsrnational economyicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsChauvet, MarcellePiger, JeremyInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1284Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01284.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01273MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01273MiAaIMiAaI
Investment-Specific Technology Growth
[electronic resource] Concepts and Recent Estimates
Michael R. Pakko
2003-04-18Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1273NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The strength of United States productivity growth in recent
years has been attributed to technological improvements that are, in
some sense, embodied in new types of capital equipment. However,
traditional growth theory and growth accounting techniques -- which
emphasize the role of disembodied, neutral technological progress --
are deficient in explaining this phenomenon. In this article, the
author outlines a model of investment-specific technological change
that has become popular for describing the notion of capital-embodied
growth and summarizes some recent estimates of the importance of this
type of technological progress for assessing United States
productivity trends.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01273.v1
economic growthicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsrinvestmentsicpsrproductivityicpsrtechnological changeicpsrtechnologyicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsPakko, Michael R.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1273Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01273.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01206MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s1999 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01206MiAaIMiAaI
Is Clarity of Responsibility Important for Economic Voting? Revisiting Powell and Whitten's Hypothesis
[electronic resource]
Terry J. Royed
,
Stephen A. Borrelli
,
Keven M. Leyden
2000-08-28Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]1999ICPSR1206NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The objective was to retest Powell and Whitten's 1993
hypothesis that the relationship between aggregate economic indicators
and aggregate election outcomes is stronger in political contexts when
there is greater clarity of responsibility. The data include
alternative indicators of the variables discussed by Powell and
Whitten, and more recent election results that were not contained in
the original dataset. The purpose of this article was to evaluate the
robustness of Powell and Whitten's initial findings. The data allow
for a near-replication of their work, as well as a retesting of their
basic model using different specifications, economic indicators, and
vote variables. The impact of aggregate economic indicators on vote
percentages for governing parties and the impact of political context
(e.g., one-party vs. multi-party government) on government
accountability for economic performance are examined.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01206.v1
economic indicatorsicpsrelectionsicpsrvoting behavioricpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsRoyed, Terry J.Borrelli, Stephen A.Leyden, Keven M.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1206Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01206.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR27807MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2010 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR27807MiAaIMiAaI
Legislative Support, Pork, and Coalitions in Brazil, January 1997-December 2005
[electronic resource]
Eric D. Raile
,
Carlos Pereira
,
Timothy J. Power
2010-09-27Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2010ICPSR27807NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
This study examined how presidents in multiparty regimes win legislative support by considering dynamism, particular bargaining contexts, and combining separate lines of research on distributive politics and coalition formation. The results of three-stage least squares regression support the assertion that pork (benefits bestowed for legislative support) and coalition goods function as imperfect substitutes, with coalition goods establishing a baseline for exchange, and pork covering the ongoing costs of operation. The empirical tests also show that pork expenditures depend on a president's bargaining leverage and the distribution of legislative seats.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR27807.v1
political influenceicpsrpoliticsicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsrgovernment expendituresicpsrlegislative impacticpsrpolitical expendituresicpsrICPSR IV.C. Economic Behavior and Attitudes, Historical and Contemporary Economic Processes and IndicatorsICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsICPSR XIV.D. Mass Political Behavior and Attitudes, Political PartiesRaile, Eric D.Pereira, CarlosPower, Timothy J.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)27807Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR27807.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR23220MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR23220MiAaIMiAaI
Oil and the United States Macroeconomy
[electronic resource]An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise
Kevin L. Kliesen
2008-09-05Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR23220NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR23220.v1
consumer expendituresicpsreconomic planningicpsrinflationicpsrmacroeconomicsicpsroil pricesicpsroil productionicpsrconsumptionicpsreconomic policyicpsreconomic trendsicpsrfood costsicpsrfuel costsicpsrgross domestic producticpsroil reservesicpsroil shortagesicpsrpolicy analysisicpsrpolicy makingicpsrrecessionicpsrdepression (economic)icpsreconomic activityicpsreconomic conditionsicpsreconomic forecastingicpsreconomic growthicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic modelsicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsKliesen, Kevin L.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)23220Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR23220.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR22680MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR22680MiAaIMiAaI
Pandemic Economics
[electronic resource]The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day Implications
Thomas A. Garrett
2008-06-09Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR22680NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
Many predictions of the economic and social costs of a modern-day pandemic are based on the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918. Despite killing 675,000 people in the United States and 40 million worldwide, the influenza of 1918 has been nearly forgotten. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the influenza pandemic of 1918 in the United States, its economic effects, and its implications for a modern-day pandemic. The paper provides a brief historical background as well as detailed influenza mortality statistics for cities and states, including those in the Eighth Federal Reserve District, that account for differences in race, income, and place of residence. Information is obtained from two sources: (i) newspaper articles published during the pandemic and (ii) a survey of economic research on the subject.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22680.v1
business conditionsicpsrinfluenzaicpsrmanufacturing industryicpsrmortality ratesicpsrpandemicicpsrwages and salariesicpsreconomic behavioricpsreconomic conditionsicpsreconomic historyicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic recoveryicpsremploymenticpsrincomeicpsrindustryicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsGarrett, Thomas A.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)22680Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22680.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR22681MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2008 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR22681MiAaIMiAaI
A Primer on the Empirical Identification of Government Spending Shocks
[electronic resource]
Kristie M. Engemann
,
Michael T. Owyang
,
Sarah Zubairy
2008-06-09Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2008ICPSR22681NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The empirical literature on the effects of government spending shocks lacks unanimity about the responses of consumption and wages. Proponents of shocks identified by structural vector autoregressions (VARs) find results consistent with New Keynesian models: consumption and wages increase. On the other hand, proponents of the narrative approach find results consistent with neoclassical models: consumption and wages decrease. This paper reviews these two identifications and confirms their differences by using standard economic series. It also uses alternative measures of government spending, output, and the labor market and shows that, although there are minor fluctuations within each identification, the disparate results between the two are robust to the alternative measures. However, under the structural VAR approach, the authors find some differences between the responses to federal and state/local government spending.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22681.v1
consumptionicpsrgovernment expendituresicpsrgovernment spendingicpsrhouseholdsicpsrlabor marketsicpsrmarket economyicpsrwages and salariesicpsreconomic activityicpsreconomic behavioricpsreconomic conditionsicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic modelsicpsreconomic policyicpsreconomic trendsicpsrfiscal policyicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsEngemann, Kristie M.Owyang, Michael T.Zubairy, SarahInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)22681Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR22681.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR24541MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2009 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR24541MiAaIMiAaI
Real Interest Rate Persistence
[electronic resource]Evidence and Implications
Christopher J. Neely
,
David E. Rapach
2009-01-26Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2009ICPSR24541NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. The authors selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods when the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. The authors discuss the implications
of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR24541.v1
interest ratesicpsrmacroeconomicsicpsrconsumptionicpsreconomic activityicpsreconomic forecastingicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic modelsicpsreconomic policyicpsreconomic trendsicpsrfinancial policyicpsrconsumer price indexicpsrGross National Producticpsrinflationicpsrinflation ratesicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsNeely, Christopher J.Rapach, David E.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)24541Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR24541.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01272MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01272MiAaIMiAaI
Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession
[electronic resource]
Michael J. Dueker
2003-04-18Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1272NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict
accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the
last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead
recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of
recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that
occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions out
of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely
misses the 1990-1991 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In
contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six
months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual
turning point of March 2001.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01272.v1
recessionicpsreconomic conditionsicpsreconomic changeicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsrpredictionicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsDueker, Michael J.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1272Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01272.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01258MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01258MiAaIMiAaI
Seeing Through the Smoke and Mirrors
[electronic resource] A Response to Palmer and Whitten, British Journal of Political Science, January 2003
Terry J. Royed
,
Kevin M. Leyden
,
Stephen A. Borrelli
2003-04-25Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1258NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
This is a corrected version of IS CLARITY OF RESPONSIBILITY
IMPORTANT FOR ECONOMIC VOTING? REVISITING POWELL AND WHITTEN'S
HYPOTHESIS (ICPSR 1206), used to write two responses to criticisms
made by Harvey Palmer and Guy Whitten in an exchange in the January
2003 issue of the British Journal of Political Science.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01258.v1
economic indicatorsicpsrelection forecastingicpsrelectionsicpsrpolitical systemsicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsRoyed, Terry J.Leyden, Kevin M.Borrelli, Stephen A.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1258Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01258.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01269MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01269MiAaIMiAaI
Stock Market Returns, Volatility, and Future Output
[electronic resource]
Hui Guo
2003-04-18Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1269NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
In this article, the author shows that, if stock volatility
follows an AR(1) process, stock market returns relate positively to
past volatility but relate negatively to contemporaneous volatility in
Merton's (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model
helps explain the recent finding that stock market volatility drives
out returns in forecasting real gross domestic product growth because
the predictive power of returns is hampered by their positive
correlation with past volatility. If the positive relation between
returns and past volatility is controlled for, however, the author
finds that volatility provides no additional information beyond
returns in forecasting output in the post-World War II sample.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01269.v1
economic activityicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsrpredictionicpsrsecuritiesicpsrstock market returnsicpsrstock marketsicpsrstock pricesicpsrstocksicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsGuo, HuiInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1269Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01269.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01266MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2003 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01266MiAaIMiAaI
Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity
[electronic resource]
William T. Gavin
,
Kevin L. Kliesen
2003-04-25Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2003ICPSR1266NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
Economic forecasters pay especially close attention to
labor market indicators during periods of economic uncertainty. Labor
market data are thought to provide early evidence about changes in the
course of the economy. This article examines whether monthly changes
in labor market indicators are useful for predicting real GDP. It then
examines whether weekly changes in initial and continuing unemployment
insurance claims are useful for helping to predict changes in
important labor market indicators. Incoming monthly data on nonfarm
payroll jobs and the index of aggregate weekly hours help predict
changes in real GDP growth, but data on the civilian unemployment rate
do not. The authors also find that unemployment insurance claims help
to predict changes in monthly labor variables. As others have found,
these predictions work best in periods of recession. However, this
article shows that there was also some predictive ability during the
1990s expansion.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1
economic growth rateicpsreconomic indicatorsicpsreconomic trendsicpsrGross Domestic Producticpsrinsurance claimsicpsrlabor marketsicpsrunemploymenticpsrunemployment insuranceicpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsGavin, William T.Kliesen, Kevin L.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1266Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01266.v1 nmm 22 4500ICPSR01127MiAaIm f a u cr mn mmmmuuuu150802s2000 miu f a eng d(MiAaI)ICPSR01127MiAaIMiAaI
What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?
[electronic resource]
James D. Hamilton
,
Gabriel Perez-Quiros
2000-08-28Ann Arbor, Mich.Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]2000ICPSR1127NumericTitle from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2015-08-02.AVAILABLE. This study is freely available to the general public.Also available as downloadable files.
The authors find that the composite leading index (CLI) is
useful for forecasting gross national product (GNP), both in a sample
and an out-of-sample real-time exercise. They propose a nonlinear
specification in which cyclical shifts of the CLI precede those in
GNP. However, the authors find that better forecasts are provided by a
simple linear relation between current GNP growth along with an
error-correction term corresponding to the previous quarter's
logarithmic difference between the level of the CLI and the level of
GNP.
Cf.: http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01127.v1
economic indicatorsicpsrGross National ProducticpsrICPSR XVIII. Replication DatasetsHamilton, James D.Perez-Quiros, GabrielInter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.ICPSR (Series)1127Access restricted ; authentication may be required:http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01127.v1