The problem here is that, in 6 months, the growth for iOS smartphone will slow again because of anticipation of iphone 5, while new Android phones will keep coming out every 3 months and maintain the lead.

IMO Apple still needs an additional model, and makes alternate launch cycles every half-year (Sep for traditional launch, Mar for variation launch). E.g. they could make a larger screen 4s model in March, and iPhone 5 in Sep.

Your argument would only make sense if the sales of the iPhone 4 saw a dip before the release of the iPhone 4S (which at the time was rumoured to be the 5), the sales didn't drop though, they increased.

Joe public (yeah, them wee fellas that buy 99% of the iPhones) doesn't give a toss about rumours or whats coming out and when, they just buy whats there when they go into the shop.

On another note, these marketshare studies hide the fact that the 'android' marketshare is so fragmented that app designers have no real idea how large their target market is and they have to put much more work into design and testing.

It#s very impressive how Apples iPhones sales have gone up after they introduced the 4s. Having three diffrent iPhones with different price ranges seems to really have worked out well for them.
I hope they will do the same thing for the iPad at some point. A cheap iPad2 would be something very hard to resist getting.

.... No, I am not an Apple fanatic either. It simply seems that Android simply isn't as polished and easy to use as iOS.....

Just snipped this out of your comment because it drew my attention. You really don't have to be an Apple fanatic to NOT want Android or anything else, for that matter. There is a big difference in having a strong preference for something and being a fanatic. Just saying'...

The problem here is that, in 6 months, the growth for iOS smartphone will slow again because of anticipation of iphone 5, while new Android phones will keep coming out every 3 months and maintain the lead.

IMO Apple still needs an additional model, and makes alternate launch cycles every half-year (Sep for traditional launch, Mar for variation launch). E.g. they could make a larger screen 4s model in March, and iPhone 5 in Sep.

Two issues with that approach-- the other manufacturers are starting to look at Apple's model for annual release cycles for flagship phones, and ...can Apple innovate on a 6-month cycle?

I'd guess the best Apple can do is have the flagship followed by the "S" 9 months later, next flagship in another 9 months. That would be good enough to satisfy my needs; I only upgrade every other model or so anyway.

What do you mean by "lose"? If you mean that Apple will continue to grow to be 3X the size of Google and be able to buy MS, Dell, Google and Intel and you call that "lose", then yes, Apple will lose.

Anti-monopoly laws would prevent such a dreadful thing from ever happening. I don't get the "I hope Apple takes over the world!" mentality. I like their products, but I am not fond of the idea of them being the only choice, or even growing to a size much larger than they already are. Hell they are raking in boatloads of cash and have yet to pay out a dividend. IMO, that makes them kind of a crappy company from a shareholder perspective. Wicked profit margins, unprecedented growth, no dividend, plenty of shackles on users. How is no one bothered by this?

Coming out of the world of BB and into the Apple ecosystem is as different as night and day. My family is able to communicate with each other easily, calendars match and with a handicapped son, Siri makes life easier for him. We have 4 4s phones and a 3gs, all of us have iPads and have never looked back at those decisions.

When I travel for business, I mainly see iPhones and very few BB's anymore. To me, it's not the phone, which is great, but it's the entire Apple experience. No other vendor offers as much, that is so easy to use, functional for everyday life or work and like Apple says, it just works!

Right now, they offer the very best value for me and my family. Great job Apple.

You didn't specify what type of handicap your son has -- Just that Siri helps him to communicate.

Apple will also eventually lose in the tablet market but Apple will always retain the highest loyalty of any brand. Thats what you get when you control both hardware and software

Correct. Apple may have higher margins and more profit. The downside will be for their users. Less options, less 3rd party support for a smaller niche market. iOS is heading that route. As I've mentioned before, its the same scenario as the Macintosh.

Anti-monopoly laws would prevent such a dreadful thing from ever happening. I don't get the "I hope Apple takes over the world!" mentality. I like their products, but I am not fond of the idea of them being the only choice, or even growing to a size much larger than they already are. Hell they are raking in boatloads of cash and have yet to pay out a dividend. IMO, that makes them kind of a crappy company from a shareholder perspective. Wicked profit margins, unprecedented growth, no dividend, plenty of shackles on users. How is no one bothered by this?

People invest in stocks for different reasons -- growth and income are two.

I still have some AAPL I bought at $17 -- so dividend income is not an issue:

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

Given the iPhone came out before Android, only a fool would assume the iPhone has always had less market share than Android. iPhone market share has been production limited from day one and grows as Apple can bring on new production.

The tighter control Apple has over design is why iOS devices will always feel faster, smoother, be easier to use and more reliable than their Android counterparts. The device design stability will ensure market leading 3rd party support.

Many people here have mentioned defective Android OEM hardware and the need for it to be taken back to the shop. Every time an Android customer does that - it counts as another Android activation, right?

Maybe the HTCs and Motorollas of the world have a reason to release crappy hardware?

Something these market share discussions rarely touch on is the iPad factor. I would have to imagine that owning an iPad makes it more likely that your next phone purchase will be an iPhone, and iPad ownership is increasingly relentlessly.

And since iPad sales are clearly not limited to iPhone or Mac owners (I know plenty of Android phone users that have an iPad (the grimly anti-Apple at all costs, even if it means using a manifestly inferior tablet to prove their point, being in the minority I think), it appears that Apple is steadily increasing the gravitational pull of iOS, in a way that the Android manufacturers don't seem to have an answer for as yet (Google knows this, hence the promise of a MotoGoogle reference tablet at some point).

Android has yet to prove itself outside of the carrier subsidy/hard sell at the phone vendor model. Since the mobile future that Apple clearly envisions involves a lot of hardware that isn't tied to carriers, I'm curious what Google and their partners intend to do about it? Big cellphone market share is all well and good, but the revolution that Apple started goes way past cell phones subsidized by contract. My suspicion is that it is in precisely the ways that Apple's plans extend past churning handset models and touting feeds and speeds that Android partners will find it difficult to compete, as it's a little more complex than simply aping Apples design cues or running a lot of ads.

They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.

The iPhone 4S was just a tiny, incremental update, and some real smart geniuses on the internet declared that it was a failure. I mean, it looks virtually the same as the previous model. Let's forget about the fact that it went from single core to dual core, it has a way faster GPU and plenty of other features like SIRI. I mean it was basically the same exact phone, except for an S added at the end of it's name.

Just face it, Apple continues to rule all, and regardless of what any ignorant commentators and untech savvy people might say or think, Apple continues to hit it out of the ballpark and they've hit another homerun with the iPhone 4S. And every single time these same people are proven wrong, yet again.

I'd be ashamed to even log on to the internet if I were one of these people, because the joke is on them.

These people should automatically get a dunce cap avatar next to their names, so everybody will know how reliable and useful their thoughts are.

The iPhone 4S was just a tiny, incremental update, and some real smart geniuses on the internet declared that it was a failure. I mean, it looks virtually the same as the previous model. Let's forget about the fact that it went from single core to dual core, it has a way faster GPU and plenty of other features like SIRI. I mean it was basically the same exact phone, except for an S added at the end of it's name.

Well, I know of one person who had an iPhone 3G, watched the unveiling of the 4S, read all the blogs from Engadget, etc. decrying the iPhone 4S as a "disappointment," explained how it made him disappointed too, then he took a serious look at the new Samsung Galaxy II for about a week, before finally choosing to buy an iPhone 4S for him and his wife. That's how "disappointed" he was.

Who else remembers those consumer survey results circulating last summer showing roughly half of all Android users planning to switch to iPhone while about 5% of iPhone users were planning to switch to Android? I remember those reports being greeted with outright disdain by Android fans and doubt amongst most others. And yet, these numbers seem to suggest there was some truth in those results.

It's curious to me that Android seems to be good at grabbing the first-time buyers but is very bad at making long-term customers of them. Happened with my wife. She got an Android-based phone and has grown to despise it. Her two years is up next month. Guess which phone she's planning to buy? I'm betting the tide will continue to shift away from Android as people get frustrated with its quirks and shortcomings.

Who else remembers those consumer survey results circulating last summer showing roughly half of all Android users planning to switch to iPhone while about 5% of iPhone users were planning to switch to Android? I remember those reports being greeted with outright disdain by Android fans and doubt amongst most others. And yet, these numbers seem to suggest there was some truth in those results.

It's curious to me that Android seems to be good at grabbing the first-time buyers but is very bad at making long-term customers of them. Happened with my wife. She got an Android-based phone and has grown to despise it. Her two years is up next month. Guess which phone she's planning to buy? I'm betting the tide will continue to shift away from Android as people get frustrated with its quirks and shortcomings.

While there were a few excellent Android phones released over the last 2 years... there were also tons of stinkers.

Which phone does your wife have? Thinking back 2 years ago today... there were plenty of "meh" Android phones on the market.

Like I said in an earlier comment... Apple still thinks highly of the 3GS they were selling over 2 years ago. So much so that they still sell it new today.

Can you imagine if some early-2010 Android phones were still sold as new today? Some of those phones might hold up today... but most would be pitiful. Some of those phones were garbage even when they were new...

I've had dozens of friends who had a miserable time with their Android phones.

Not surprisingly... I've recently seen a sharp increase in the number of iPhones in my social circle.

@slapppy - I'm sure you're gonna chime in. Yes... Android will continue to outsell the iPhone. Don't worry your pretty little head about it! But I'm just wondering what kind of dominance Android really has when it's comprised of many crappy phones that people hate to use.