Trump: Attack in Paris will have 'big effect' on their election

President Donald Trump predicted Friday morning that a shooting on Paris’ famous Champs Elysées “will have a big effect on presidential election” in France, voting for which begins on Sunday.

Thursday night in Paris, gunman opened fire on police officers, killing one and injuring two others. The gunman then fled and was killed by another police officer in a shootout that also hit a foreign tourist. French President Francois Hollande said the shooting was “likely terrorist-related” and the Islamic State claimed credit for the attack after it occurred.

“Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!” Trump wrote on Twitter Friday morning.

The U.S. president has not officially backed a candidate in the French election, but far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is widely seen as holding views, especially on immigration and terrorism, that are close to Trump’s. Le Pen, one of the election’s frontrunners who spoke Thursday of her “anger” following the attack and insisted that France possesses “the means to defend itself,” met with Trump in his Manhattan skyscraper during the transition period.

1. Apparently, I have gotten incredibly cynical

I know it says the Islamic State claimed credit for it but how do we know it wasn't Russia? It's not like they haven't ever had someone shot and they certainly have the tech skills to make a statement look like it was being issued by the Islamic State. Or maybe they just gave them a big donation and asked them to do it for them? I know, crazy, right?

12. What does that matter?

18. You're right

Russia is also probably responsible for backing ISIS and other jihadist groups in Syria as a backdoor way to takeover and occupy that country. Word on the street is that Putin himself is also working with US-based pharmaceutical companies and doctors to flood neighborhoods with opioid painkillers in order to "zombify" the American population.

3. You know who else are probably hoping for a LePen victory?.

ISIS, that's who. It would destabilize Europe, which is to their advantage. There is reliable intelligence reporting to the effect that they were pleased about Brexit, for that reason.

It had occurred to me for some time that, while of course ISIS never need much of a motive for committing and instigating violence, they might arrange an attack in France just before the election, in part so as to increase LePen's chances. Coincidence or not, now they have.

I hope that France do NOT play into the hands of the terrorists, and vote to ruin their own country even worse than the UK and US have

17. I have been following it, and have never seen her in third place

Since March, Le Pan and Macron have been very close - with both having polls where they were in the lead. Neither are anywhere near the 50% that would preclude a second election. There have been some polls where the next two candidates, especially Melechon, the communist candidate, whose support is surging, MIGHT keep her out of the second round.

It is amazing how close all four candidates are polling in the first round.

However, Le Pen loses badly to any of the others, especially Macron and Fillon, in the second round.

16. However, it is extremely unlikely that Le Pen, polling in the low 20s

will get over the 50% threshold to win in the first round. She is already favored to be first or second - thus getting into the second round. In the second round, she is polled as losing by a huge margin to each of the other three possibilities (Macron and Fillon get over 60 percent, Melechron would get in the high 50s.)

The most likely result of the first round was Macron/Le Pen as the second round choice before the attack; and Macron/Le Pen after the attack. President Obama called Macron yesterday - and Macron put that information out. Macron and John kerry met in March - and Macron tweeted a photo of that meeting. Neither Obama or Kerry, both well liked in France, endorsed Macron. This may be a case where a hint in that direction is better than anything overt, that could offend some as interference. (Note how ironic that Trump is tweeting his preference from DC as the sitting President for a French NATIONALIST. Now consider Trump's popularity in France -- other than Le Pen's base, who would this make more likely to support her?)