Yet another story appeared about teacher-stress recently. The stress here is directly correlated with the falling birth rate:

Nearly 80 percent of teachers are worried that the low birth rate in Taiwan will affect their teaching career, according to a survey conducted by the King Car Education Foundation prior to Teacher's Day . . .

Some 50.5 percent of the teachers in the survey were "seriously anxious" that they might be transferred to another school or laid off, while another 27.5 percent said they were "extremely anxious”.

But even if they keep their jobs, do you think the stress will disappear? Of course not. Teachers will simply be asked to do more. And further, according to the article:

Starting next year, local teachers from middle schools and elementary schools will have to pay income taxes. Commenting on the upcoming tax policy and the possible reduction in schools in the future, some teachers have suggested the government lower the ratio of students to teachers and hire more faculty members with the tax money to raise both teaching quality and the employment rate of qualified teachers.

So whether you lose your job or retain it, the outlook does indeed look grim. Nevertheless, there were some soothsayers back in 2009 who saw the writing on the wall:

In 2009, Minister of Education Wu Ching-ji predicted that more than 30 percent of local universities will be out of business in the next 12 years if the declining birth rate worsens. Taiwan's total fertility rate dropped to 0.91 in 2010 -- the lowest rate the country has ever seen and one of the lowest in the world.

Romanworld - I am not saying, nor am I implying, that MCU bought their way to accreditation. What I am saying is that they threw huge amount of money at getting it . . .

A colleague recently sent me a link to a fine PBS documentary entitled 'College, Inc' about the growth of for-profit schools based on a model developed by educational entrepreneur, John Sperling. In this documentary there is mention of the importance of regional accreditation in giving failing schools a shot in the arm by bringing in much needed private investment. Further, students attending these accredited schools are eligible for the federal student loan program, allowing students from lower social stratas to gain an education. One wonders if American students studying Chinese at Ming Chuan University would be eligible for financial aid from the US government?

I think this is a slight understatement. According to a recent article in the China Post: "Professors and lecturers at universities in Taiwan are at risk of “karoshi” (過勞死), a Japanese word meaning death from overwork, because they are forced to pursue quantitative measures of performance . . . "

And the article disturbingly goes on to quote Shih Hsin University President Lai Ting-ming, who "said that to gain access to government funds, Taiwan's colleges and universities 'can do nothing but seek quantifiable data' to measure school performance or development potential."

He goes on to say that this "has forced many professors to spend the bulk of their time drafting research plans and carrying them out, while at the same time maintaining their regular teaching and research responsibilities . . ."

He warned: "Such a heavy workload “could topple the academic sector into a 'karoshi' crisis."

Finally Lai provided data from his own university to ram home his point: "At Shih Hsin alone, 16 professors and lecturers have been afflicted with serious diseases, including cancer, over the past eight years and eight of them have died."

It's inevitable that Mainland China will go the same way as its adversary across the Strait. A report in the WantChinaTimes is running the headline:

'China's birthrate is lower than stated: academics.'

The report suggests in a roundabout way that the Chinese government may have been cooking the books when it comes to the REAL as opposed to the official birth rate:

The official birth rate figure given by the government has always been 1.8%. Yet statistics compiled by Li Jianxin, another Peking University sociology professor, show that a figure of between 1.4% and 1.5% may be more accurate national birth rate.

By the UN's definition, any figure below 1.5% is regarded as a low birth rate. UN statistics gave China's birth rate between 2000 and 2005 as 1.7% and 1.64% for the period between 2005 and 2010.

Obviously, with greater opportunities for women in the workplace, they(women) are opting to postpone marriage and family in favour of self-fulfilment. This of course is not a bad thing, but it does offer the worrying prospect that many schools, colleges, and universities will soon be seeing
a decline in student numbers. This doesn't bode well for schools in China, or schools in the western world that are competing aggressively for a falling number of students, especially at a time when governments in countries such as the UK are slashing university budgets.

Stanley Yen, chairman of the Alliance Culture Foundation, pointed out that the problem Taiwan's higher education is confronted with is the glut of “homogenized universities” that are not teaching practical or locally needed skills.

The editorial goes on to say that:

Our more than 160 universities have so far turned out 800,000 holders of master's and Ph.D. degrees, many of whom struggle to find jobs . . .

and . . .

Too many universities have spoiled our higher education, which can train by and large only below-mediocre professionals . . .

Irresponsible bankers have caused the current global financial meltdown, but now it's the turn of the for-profit educational sector to do further damage . . .

The truth about the for-profit sector is now being exposed. Students that graduate from these worthless schools are likely to face "higher debt, and more unemployment". A recent study by a group of Harvard researchers concluded:

Students attending for-profit colleges wind up with much higher student-loan debts, are less likely to be employed after graduation and generally earn less than similar students at public or private nonprofit schools . . .

How much less do they earn?

The study finds that a sample of students enrolling at for-profit colleges in 2004 were making, on average, between $1,800 to $2,000 less annually than students attending other types of institutions. Six years after entering college, for-profit students are also more likely to be unemployed -- and to be unemployed for periods longer than three months

Schools in Taiwan like Ming Chuan University who are aggressively pursuing the American for-profit model are likely hiding the truth from their students that upon graduation they won't be able to find a job to pay back the incredible sums borrowed to fund their worthless education. When will these poor students wake up and see the light?

It's inevitable that Mainland China will go the same way as its adversary across the Strait.

Yet another article appeared recently regarding the demographic challenge facing East Asian universities to recruit from a student pie that is shrinking year-by-year.

Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have already faced the tough reality of a demographic decline in student numbers; now China is encountering the same challenging issue.

Yojana Sharma of University World News reports that census figures show that China’s birthrate is falling, and at the same time its population is ageing faster than expected. The article quotes the OECD as declaring that:

“Japan, Korea and China are the countries that will experience the most notable, continuous long-term decrease of the 18 to 23 population.”

China’s demographic slump in student numbers may be more recent in development than it has been in Japan and South Korea, but it will likely be more visible given the much greater size of the higher education market in China. Sources quoted in the article predict the decline may manifest in terms of:

More cutthroat competition among Chinese higher education institutions for students
More targeted programming among Chinese universities as they court niche groups of students
More emphasis on recruiting students from coastal and countryside-dwelling Chinese students, where participation rates are below capacity
Falling study abroad rates among Chinese students
Possible failure of some Chinese universities as demand falls
Probable increase in quality of programming among those that remain competitive

One wonders how this shortfall in student numbers from China will impact on countries like Taiwan who are targeting this particular niche group?