America’s Most and Least Popular Senators

Most of the vulnerable Senate Democrats outperform Trump

Trump still more popular than vulnerable senators in West Virginia, Missouri.

Bernie Sanders is still on top, with 63% of Vermonters approving.

Mitch McConnell lags again, underwater by 26 points.

While many of the vulnerable Senate Democrats on the ballot in November have seen their popularity decline since the beginning of 2017, most of them remain more popular in their states than President Donald Trump.

The latest edition of Morning Consult’s Senator Approval Rankings — based on surveys with more than 330,000 registered voters from April 1 through June 30 — shows modest drops in net approval over the second quarter for three Democrats running for re-election in states Trump won during 2016: Sens. Jon Tester of Montana (-9 points), who has the support of half of the voters in the state, and Bill Nelson of Florida and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota (both -8 points), who were each backed by 44 percent of voters in their states.

But that trio, along with five other Senate Democrats running in a Trump-won state this fall, still sport higher net approval ratings than the president. That’s a positive development ahead of a midterm election cycle, which often serves as a referendum on the president and benefits out-party members running for re-election. The last time an incumbent from the party not in control of the White House lost re-election was in 2002, when former Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) ousted Democrat Max Cleland.

Trump has a better net approval than a Democratic incumbent in just two of the states he won during the 2016 election, Missouri and West Virginia.

In the Show Me State, Trump’s net approval is 6 points higher than Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s. The two-term incumbent is 1 point ahead of her opponent, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, according to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics as of July 24.

And in the Mountaineer State, Trump has a 20-point edge in popularity over Sen. Joe Manchin, the most conservative member of the Senate Democratic Caucus; however, Manchin leads his challenger, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey by 7 points on average, according to RealClearPolitics as of July 24.

Sen. Dean Heller, the lone Republican incumbent running for re-election in a state carried by 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, remains 3 points underwater and saw no change in sentiment among Nevadans since the first quarter.

Much is made of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s lack of popularity in his home state of Kentucky. He is consistently the least-popular member of the chamber, finishing last in every edition of the 100-deep list since its inception in late 2015. (In the latest survey, 56 percent of Kentuckians disapproved of his job performance.)

But the 115th Congress has also proved tough jousting for McConnell’s Democratic counterpart, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. Voter sentiment toward the Brooklyn-born leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus has grown bearish since the first quarter of 2017, when 63 percent of New Yorkers approved of his job performance and 27 percent disapproved.

In the newest survey, half of respondents said they approved of Schumer, compared with 34 percent who didn’t. That’s a net 20-point swing since Republicans came into power in the White House, and mirrors McConnell’s own 23-point slide during the same time frame.

Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee, two Republican senators who opted to retire at the end of the year after quarreling with Trump, have continued to criticize his temperament and antagonistic trade policy. Both remain unpopular with party members in their home states.

In Arizona, 29 percent of Republican voters approve of Flake’s job performance, while 57 percent disapprove, making him the country’s most unpopular Republican senator among members of his own party. In the Volunteer State, less than half (48 percent) of GOP voters approve of Corker and 36 disapprove.

The ‘bear den’ and 2020

In 2014, Republicans took control of the chamber in dramatic fashion, flipping nine seats en route to a 10-seat majority. But with an unpopular president in the White House, several of those victorious and ambitious newcomers, sometimes referred to as the “bear den” by other Senate Republicans, are heading into a re-election cycle next year under a decidedly different political environment.

To varying degrees, senators such as Alaska’s Dan Sullivan, Iowa’s Joni Ernst, Colorado’s Cory Gardner and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis have all seen their fortunes decline in the eyes of voters since the beginning of 2016, in Morning Consult’s first quarterly rankings. Sullivan (-36 points) and Gardner (-23 points) have been bruised more than Ernst (-10 points) and Tillis (-9 points), but they also started out with higher rankings.

With their net approval hovering right around even in the past quarter, all four senators will have their work cut out for them if they are to stick around long enough to ascend the party ranks.

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State

Senator

Approve

Disapprove

Don't know / No opinion

Margin of Error

Alabama

Richard Shelby

48%

30%

22%

1%

Alabama

Doug Jones

45%

28%

26%

1%

Alaska

Lisa Murkowski

40%

43%

17%

5%

Alaska

Dan Sullivan

34%

38%

28%

5%

Arizona

John McCain

42%

46%

11%

1%

Arizona

Jeff Flake

30%

51%

19%

1%

Arkansas

Tom Cotton

48%

34%

18%

2%

Arkansas

John Boozman

46%

28%

26%

2%

California

Kamala Harris

45%

29%

26%

1%

California

Dianne Feinstein

45%

38%

18%

1%

Colorado

Michael Bennet

42%

30%

28%

1%

Colorado

Cory Gardner

38%

37%

25%

1%

Connecticut

Christopher Murphy

49%

35%

17%

2%

Connecticut

Richard Blumenthal

49%

38%

14%

2%

Delaware

Chris Coons

48%

31%

21%

3%

Delaware

Thomas Carper

51%

27%

22%

3%

Florida

Marco Rubio

42%

41%

17%

1%

Florida

Bill Nelson

44%

34%

23%

1%

Georgia

David Perdue

47%

27%

26%

1%

Georgia

Johnny Isakson

46%

27%

27%

1%

Hawaii

Mazie Hirono

56%

27%

17%

4%

Hawaii

Brian Schatz

53%

26%

21%

4%

Idaho

Michael Crapo

45%

34%

21%

3%

Idaho

James Risch

40%

32%

28%

3%

Illinois

Tammy Duckworth

46%

33%

22%

1%

Illinois

Dick Durbin

38%

40%

23%

1%

Indiana

Joe Donnelly

41%

34%

25%

1%

Indiana

Todd Young

42%

28%

30%

1%

Iowa

Joni Ernst

42%

38%

20%

2%

Iowa

Chuck Grassley

45%

39%

16%

2%

Kansas

Pat Roberts

37%

39%

24%

2%

Kansas

Jerry Moran

42%

32%

26%

2%

Kentucky

Mitch McConnell

30%

56%

15%

1%

Kentucky

Rand Paul

40%

42%

19%

1%

Louisiana

Bill Cassidy

48%

27%

25%

1%

Louisiana

John Kennedy

51%

25%

24%

1%

Maine

Susan Collins

56%

34%

11%

2%

Maine

Angus King

57%

29%

14%

2%

Maryland

Chris Van Hollen

46%

23%

32%

1%

Maryland

Benjamin Cardin

47%

26%

28%

1%

Massachusetts

Edward Markey

51%

23%

26%

1%

Massachusetts

Elizabeth Warren

53%

36%

11%

1%

Michigan

Debbie Stabenow

40%

38%

22%

1%

Michigan

Gary Peters

34%

29%

37%

1%

Minnesota

Tina Smith

37%

21%

41%

1%

Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar

60%

24%

16%

1%

Mississippi

Cindy Hyde-Smith*

--

--

--

--

Mississippi

Roger Wicker

47%

27%

25%

2%

Missouri

Claire McCaskill

40%

44%

17%

1%

Missouri

Roy Blunt

38%

39%

23%

1%

Montana

Jon Tester

50%

36%

15%

3%

Montana

Steve Daines

40%

35%

25%

3%

Nebraska

Benjamin Sasse

43%

34%

23%

2%

Nebraska

Deb Fischer

44%

36%

20%

2%

Nevada

Dean Heller

37%

40%

23%

2%

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto

39%

34%

27%

2%

New Hampshire

Maggie Hassan

54%

32%

14%

3%

New Hampshire

Jeanne Shaheen

53%

31%

16%

3%

New Jersey

Cory Booker

48%

31%

22%

1%

New Jersey

Robert Menendez

33%

41%

26%

1%

New Mexico

Tom Udall

46%

30%

23%

3%

New Mexico

Martin Heinrich

43%

32%

25%

3%

New York

Chuck Schumer

50%

34%

16%

1%

New York

Kirsten Gillibrand

47%

28%

25%

1%

North Carolina

Richard Burr

39%

33%

28%

1%

North Carolina

Thom Tillis

35%

35%

30%

1%

North Dakota

John Hoeven

57%

26%

18%

4%

North Dakota

Heidi Heitkamp

44%

44%

12%

4%

Ohio

Sherrod Brown

44%

29%

27%

1%

Ohio

Robert Portman

38%

33%

29%

1%

Oklahoma

James Lankford

40%

38%

23%

2%

Oklahoma

James Inhofe

38%

40%

22%

2%

Oregon

Ron Wyden

54%

26%

21%

2%

Oregon

Jeff Merkley

50%

26%

25%

2%

Pennsylvania

Robert Casey

42%

32%

26%

1%

Pennsylvania

Patrick Toomey

35%

39%

25%

1%

Rhode Island

Jack Reed

57%

23%

21%

3%

Rhode Island

Sheldon Whitehouse

51%

30%

19%

3%

South Carolina

Tim Scott

53%

22%

25%

1%

South Carolina

Lindsey Graham

41%

40%

19%

1%

South Dakota

John Thune

62%

25%

14%

3%

South Dakota

Mike Rounds

58%

26%

16%

3%

Tennessee

Bob Corker

41%

37%

22%

1%

Tennessee

Lamar Alexander

43%

34%

24%

1%

Texas

John Cornyn

42%

29%

30%

1%

Texas

Ted Cruz

48%

35%

17%

1%

Utah

Mike Lee

48%

29%

23%

2%

Utah

Orrin Hatch

44%

40%

15%

2%

Vermont

Patrick Leahy

56%

32%

12%

4%

Vermont

Bernard Sanders

63%

32%

5%

4%

Virginia

Mark Warner

50%

30%

21%

1%

Virginia

Tim Kaine

45%

35%

20%

1%

Washington

Maria Cantwell

50%

28%

23%

1%

Washington

Patty Murray

51%

30%

19%

1%

West Virginia

Joe Manchin

45%

43%

12%

1%

West Virginia

Shelley Capito

46%

34%

20%

1%

Wisconsin

Tammy Baldwin

44%

39%

18%

1%

Wisconsin

Ron Johnson

39%

39%

22%

1%

Wyoming

John Barrasso

52%

33%

15%

5%

Wyoming

Mike Enzi

52%

31%

16%

5%

* Morning Consult did not collect second-quarter data on Cindy Hyde-Smith, who became a Mississippi senator in April.