For those who missed it

Have just come off the Milford Track and looks like I missed a pretty significant Herald Digipoll:

Labour’s support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.

Polling below Shearer who was rolled because he was polling so low.

The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent. That is his best rating since the election but not as high as he reached in his first term when he often rated more than 70 against Phil Goff.

The increases in support for National and the Greens since December put them at their highest ratings since the 2011 election.

Crashing below 30 per cent will be a bitter blow for Labour six months before the election. No party in the six elections held under MMP has been able to lead a government without polling in the high 30s or in the 40s.

Didn’t David Cunliffe claim Labour under his leadership would poll higher than National, not 22% behind them?

Labour’s only hopes seem to be Winston Peters and Kim Dotcom/Mana.

Of interest in the poll is that National is polling at just under 51% with both men and women. It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.

Yes, but the answer to this is that National is not center right, it is center left, which is where John Key has taken it because in his weak left wing populism and lack of idea/ rhetoric he can’t take it anywhere else.

davidp

If this were the Oscars, John Key would like to thank the following people for the untiring ineptitude that has made this result possible: Director Greg Presland; Executive Producer Matt McCarten; Kim Dotcom who wrote the soundtrack; Russel Norman and the entire cast of the Greens; Winston Peters, who won his own Lifetime Achievement Award last year because he still shows up for work at the age of 82; Martin Bradbury who did the visual FX on his brand new iMac; the donors who provided the finance but wish to remain anonymous; the Official David Cunliffe Fan Club at the Standard; and some rich American guy who allowed the production to use his modest home as a set. Lastly, David Cunliffe himself for providing the inspiration, and also for voicing the Jar Jar Binks character while standing on top of a bus.

Then Key would pose for a selfie with Bradley Cooper. And then he would fall over, because a lot of the reasons people like John Key are the same reasons they like Jennifer Lawrence.

Sir Cullen's Sidekick

As Cunliffe said, our internal polling puts us at 34% and the trend is showing further increases. Milkgate is yet to show its impact. Word on the street is milkgate will cost National at least 5%. So Matt McCarten expects that next poll will show National at 45% and Labour at close to 36%. We are on the right track.

eszett

Redbaiter (6,441 comments) says:
March 18th, 2014 at 10:24 pm
“It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.”

Yes, but the answer to this is that National is not center right, it is center left, which is where John Key has taken it because in his weak left wing populism and lack of idea/ rhetoric he can’t take it anywhere else.

Yup, Cunliffe and Co are praying that John Key follows your advice and turns hard right.
That’s the only sure chance of National dropping like a stone and Labour winning the elction.

tas

Labour seems to think they have great policies and it’s just a matter of time before voters come to them in droves. Why do they not listen to the endless polls telling them that voters think they’re useless? If my party was polling record lows, I’d seriously reconsider direction, but not Labour. Why?

alex Masterley

burt

Is there really still 29.5% of the population who want to repeat the 1970’s Muldoonesq policies ? Is it true 29.5% of people haven’t noticed that socialism always fails – if so, then it’s true that our school system is failing the youth of today.

Mobile Michael

Labour will continue to poll less until Shane Jones is leader. He is the only Labour MP who understands the important issues for the infamous Waitakere Man who swing votes. While he’ll lose votes to the Greens, he’ll pick up double that number from National.

tvb

Milkgate is just hot air. it is a pity Judith Collins was clumsy in the manner she initially handled it. But that is all. She easily saw off questions yesterday in Parliament, it was a commanding performance. I am not a fan of her personality and her deficiencies made a storm in a tea cup much worse than it needed to be. But It is rare I disagree with her on anything and I see her as an asset for the Government especially amongst women, as polling for National shows.

alloytoo

“The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent. That is his best rating since the election but not as high as he reached in his first term when he often rated more than 70 against Phil Goff.”

Don’t you love how the Herald contrives to make 66.5% approval rating (after two terms as pm) as a negative?

BeaB

Labour hate Judith Collins because she is smart, successful and capable. They always writhe with envy and resentment when a uppity National woman does well.

We are the only country in the world where everyone knows what her husband does and everyone knows what she did in China but we have a wholly manufactured scandal about a cabinet minister daring to promote NZ products and a very successful NZ company in our biggest export market.

A conflict of interest has to be more than just an interest – there has to be an actual conflict and I see none here.

If this is the pathetic best gossipy Grant can manage it is clear why his party thought him unfit for leadership. Perhaps he resents the fact that he could not even take his husband for dinner in many of our important export markets.

itstricky

There are twice as many posts on, Taurima, for example. And half of what you’ve listed above is defence of her not analysis. He is positively looking the other way. Op. There’s the news @ 8 and Collins is mentioned again. Trout? Better than calling her feral like her muse has a tendency to do I suppose