The Race for the 2017 Draft's No. 1 Pick: Which teams have the best chance, which will miss out

As the playoffs fade from view for some franchises, April comes into clearer focus. Will the Browns complete their 0–16 season and scoop the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft? Or will another team sneak in? And what about the other teams who, while out of the running for the No. 1 pick, still have a shot at an early choice? Chris Burke handicaps the field below.

Cleveland Browns (Projected Record: 0–16)

The Browns have four chances left to avoid an 0–16 record and NFL infamy. A win, though, and they could lose their grip on the No. 1 pick because they have played a more difficult schedule than San Francisco. (The NFL draft order tiebreaker favors the team with a worse strength of schedule.) Cleveland’s best chance at victory may be its next game: Week 14, vs. the struggling Bengals. The Browns also could catch a break in Week 17, if the Steelers have sealed their playoff fate and thus clear the bench. Will Cody Kessler, Josh McCown or Robert Griffin III be the QB who tries to save Cleveland from a winless season? All three are working back from injury; all three are on track to be available for that matchup with the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns (Projected Record: 0–16)

The Browns have four chances left to avoid an 0–16 record and NFL infamy. A win, though, and they could lose their grip on the No. 1 pick because they have played a more difficult schedule than San Francisco. (The NFL draft order tiebreaker favors the team with a worse strength of schedule.) Cleveland’s best chance at victory may be its next game: Week 14, vs. the struggling Bengals. The Browns also could catch a break in Week 17, if the Steelers have sealed their playoff fate and thus clear the bench. Will Cody Kessler, Josh McCown or Robert Griffin III be the QB who tries to save Cleveland from a winless season? All three are working back from injury; all three are on track to be available for that matchup with the Bengals.

San Francisco 49ers (Projected record: 1–15)

The 1–10 49ers have three games left on their schedule that will heavily impact the 2017 draft order: at Chicago (Week 13), vs. the Jets (Week 14), at Los Angeles (Week 16). Should San Francisco lose out, the worst it could do is stay in the No. 2 spot. The X-factor is the improved play, of late, from QB Colin Kaepernick. He has nine total TDs to two INTs over his past four games, averaging 277 yards passing in that span. He’s not flawless and he’ll need some help, but Kaepernick has the current look of a quarterback capable of stealing one late in the season.

San Francisco 49ers (Projected record: 1–15)

The 1–10 49ers have three games left on their schedule that will heavily impact the 2017 draft order: at Chicago (Week 13), vs. the Jets (Week 14), at Los Angeles (Week 16). Should San Francisco lose out, the worst it could do is stay in the No. 2 spot. The X-factor is the improved play, of late, from QB Colin Kaepernick. He has nine total TDs to two INTs over his past four games, averaging 277 yards passing in that span. He’s not flawless and he’ll need some help, but Kaepernick has the current look of a quarterback capable of stealing one late in the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Projected Record: 3–13)

Kansas City, Houston, Detroit and Buffalo sport a combined 27–17 record, and three of those teams are in playoff position. None was able to beat Jacksonville by more than a touchdown in Weeks 9-12, and the Jags’ defense allowed an average of just 272 yards in those games. Does that mean the Jaguars are inching closer to nabbing their third win of the season? Their schedule does not get any more forgiving: Each of the final five games are against postseason contenders. Blake Bortles does have a higher QB rating in December (89.4) than any other month. Getting to three or four wins is possible, given how Jacksonville has played of late, but there is nothing close to an easy matchup left.

Jacksonville Jaguars (Projected Record: 3–13)

Kansas City, Houston, Detroit and Buffalo sport a combined 27–17 record, and three of those teams are in playoff position. None was able to beat Jacksonville by more than a touchdown in Weeks 9-12, and the Jags’ defense allowed an average of just 272 yards in those games. Does that mean the Jaguars are inching closer to nabbing their third win of the season? Their schedule does not get any more forgiving: Each of the final five games are against postseason contenders. Blake Bortles does have a higher QB rating in December (89.4) than any other month. Getting to three or four wins is possible, given how Jacksonville has played of late, but there is nothing close to an easy matchup left.

Chicago Bears (Projected Record: 3–13)

The Bears are 2–1 within the NFC North thus far, 0–9 against the rest of the league. After Sunday’s ... uh ... "showdown" with San Francisco, they face three of their final four within the division. Will they have any healthy players left for those games? Fifteen names currently reside on Chicago’s injured-reserve list, while two more (WR Alshon Jeffery and LB Jerrell Freeman) are dealing with suspensions. Chicago has fought hard most weeks, but the manpower simply is not there. Another subplot at QB lies here, too: Will Jay Cutler make any more appearances this season, or is his Bears career all but over? Matt Barkley outplayed expectations in his NFL starting debut last week.

Chicago Bears (Projected Record: 3–13)

The Bears are 2–1 within the NFC North thus far, 0–9 against the rest of the league. After Sunday’s ... uh ... "showdown" with San Francisco, they face three of their final four within the division. Will they have any healthy players left for those games? Fifteen names currently reside on Chicago’s injured-reserve list, while two more (WR Alshon Jeffery and LB Jerrell Freeman) are dealing with suspensions. Chicago has fought hard most weeks, but the manpower simply is not there. Another subplot at QB lies here, too: Will Jay Cutler make any more appearances this season, or is his Bears career all but over? Matt Barkley outplayed expectations in his NFL starting debut last week.

New York Jets (Projected Record: 4–12)

We’re now into the teams likely to land top-10 picks but in need of a chaotic landslide of occurrences in order to reach No. 1. As of Week 12, when they dropped Ryan Fitzpatrick back into the lineup vs. New England, the Jets were still talking like a team that believed it could make a run to the playoffs at 9–7. How will they react with so little left to play for? Already, there were concerns about the focus levels of Muhammad Wilkerson and (impending free agent) Sheldon Richardson. The effort the Jets put forth on Monday vs. Indianapolis and Week 14 at San Francisco will reveal plenty about how scrappy they’ll be during the final three weekends, when they face three consecutive playoff-hungry AFC East foes.

New York Jets (Projected Record: 4–12)

We’re now into the teams likely to land top-10 picks but in need of a chaotic landslide of occurrences in order to reach No. 1. As of Week 12, when they dropped Ryan Fitzpatrick back into the lineup vs. New England, the Jets were still talking like a team that believed it could make a run to the playoffs at 9–7. How will they react with so little left to play for? Already, there were concerns about the focus levels of Muhammad Wilkerson and (impending free agent) Sheldon Richardson. The effort the Jets put forth on Monday vs. Indianapolis and Week 14 at San Francisco will reveal plenty about how scrappy they’ll be during the final three weekends, when they face three consecutive playoff-hungry AFC East foes.

Carolina Panthers (Projected Record: 5–11)

The defending NFC champs hold the No. 8 pick through 12 weeks of the season. Their harsh closing stretch (at Seattle, San Diego, at Washington, Atlanta, at Tampa Bay) definitely puts them in play for a top-five selection when all is said and done. The outlook would be a 180 turn had they held on against either Kansas City or Oakland in recent weeks—at 5–6 or 6–5, the Panthers would be able to dream of catching Atlanta for the NFC South title. At 4–7 and behind every other team in the division, though, Carolina’s facing what appears to be an insurmountable climb. There is also no telling when star linebacker Luke Kuechly, the heart and soul of Carolina’s defense, will return to action after the scary concussion he suffered in Week 11.

Carolina Panthers (Projected Record: 5–11)

The defending NFC champs hold the No. 8 pick through 12 weeks of the season. Their harsh closing stretch (at Seattle, San Diego, at Washington, Atlanta, at Tampa Bay) definitely puts them in play for a top-five selection when all is said and done. The outlook would be a 180 turn had they held on against either Kansas City or Oakland in recent weeks—at 5–6 or 6–5, the Panthers would be able to dream of catching Atlanta for the NFC South title. At 4–7 and behind every other team in the division, though, Carolina’s facing what appears to be an insurmountable climb. There is also no telling when star linebacker Luke Kuechly, the heart and soul of Carolina’s defense, will return to action after the scary concussion he suffered in Week 11.

Cincinnati Bengals (Projected Record: 5–10–1)

The December/January stretch has not been all that kind to Cincinnati the last couple of years, as it is—the Bengals are 5–4 in that window. With Gio Bernard definitely done for the season, A.J. Green possibly done for the season and injuries in the secondary, it will be difficult to stem the tide in 2016. That said, Cincinnati could wind up favored vs. Philadelphia in Week 13 (it opened as a one-point ’dog) and will be favored next week at Cleveland. Add in visits from a Pittsburgh team it always plays tough and a Baltimore team it just pushed to the brink, and Cincinnati should be able to boost its record before all is said and done.

Cincinnati Bengals (Projected Record: 5–10–1)

The December/January stretch has not been all that kind to Cincinnati the last couple of years, as it is—the Bengals are 5–4 in that window. With Gio Bernard definitely done for the season, A.J. Green possibly done for the season and injuries in the secondary, it will be difficult to stem the tide in 2016. That said, Cincinnati could wind up favored vs. Philadelphia in Week 13 (it opened as a one-point ’dog) and will be favored next week at Cleveland. Add in visits from a Pittsburgh team it always plays tough and a Baltimore team it just pushed to the brink, and Cincinnati should be able to boost its record before all is said and done.

Tennessee Titans (Via Los Angeles Rams, Projected Record: 6–10)

The Titans are in the AFC South race and on track for a top-10 pick, which had to be the dream when they dealt away the No. 1 pick last April. There’s not much more Tennessee can do with regard to this pick, other than watch and hope. The Rams, sitting on seven losses, still have road trips to New England and Seattle, bookending a home game with NFC South-leading Atlanta. But they close the year against San Francisco and Arizona, so 4–12 might not be as likely as, say, 6–10. Either way, the Rams are not falling to No. 1. The Titans will have to settle for a pair of first-rounders.

Tennessee Titans (Via Los Angeles Rams, Projected Record: 6–10)

The Titans are in the AFC South race and on track for a top-10 pick, which had to be the dream when they dealt away the No. 1 pick last April. There’s not much more Tennessee can do with regard to this pick, other than watch and hope. The Rams, sitting on seven losses, still have road trips to New England and Seattle, bookending a home game with NFC South-leading Atlanta. But they close the year against San Francisco and Arizona, so 4–12 might not be as likely as, say, 6–10. Either way, the Rams are not falling to No. 1. The Titans will have to settle for a pair of first-rounders.

Arizona Cardinals (Projected Record: 6–9–1)

Thanks to Cleveland’s latest loss, Arizona actually has been eliminated from the dubious No. 1 pick contention. Its worst-case record is 4–11–1; the Browns cannot finish better than 4–12. And a win over Washington this Sunday, coupled with a handful of favorable results elsewhere, actually would leave Bruce Arians’s team just one game back of a wild-card spot, as hard as that is to believe. It’s far from out of the question that the reeling Cardinals keep on plummeting—four of their remaining five games are on the road and/or against a team currently in the playoff picture. The final record might be bad. Just not No. 1 pick bad.

Arizona Cardinals (Projected Record: 6–9–1)

Thanks to Cleveland’s latest loss, Arizona actually has been eliminated from the dubious No. 1 pick contention. Its worst-case record is 4–11–1; the Browns cannot finish better than 4–12. And a win over Washington this Sunday, coupled with a handful of favorable results elsewhere, actually would leave Bruce Arians’s team just one game back of a wild-card spot, as hard as that is to believe. It’s far from out of the question that the reeling Cardinals keep on plummeting—four of their remaining five games are on the road and/or against a team currently in the playoff picture. The final record might be bad. Just not No. 1 pick bad.

The Field

Don’t rule out the possibility of a second consecutive trade involving the No. 1 pick. Myles Garrett (or possibly Jonathan Allen) should pique the interest of just about any team in the league. The QB class is unsettled, but DeShone Kizer, Deshaun Watson or Mitch Trubisky could cause a little movement. The flip side, though, is that just about all of the truly QB-needy teams have top-nine draft position as it is. There are a few longshot trade-up possibilities out there, like Houston (if it bails on Brock Osweiler) or New Orleans (in need of an edge defender of Garrett’s ilk.) But the team at No. 1 could find a tougher trade market than the Titans did in 2016.

The Field

Don’t rule out the possibility of a second consecutive trade involving the No. 1 pick. Myles Garrett (or possibly Jonathan Allen) should pique the interest of just about any team in the league. The QB class is unsettled, but DeShone Kizer, Deshaun Watson or Mitch Trubisky could cause a little movement. The flip side, though, is that just about all of the truly QB-needy teams have top-nine draft position as it is. There are a few longshot trade-up possibilities out there, like Houston (if it bails on Brock Osweiler) or New Orleans (in need of an edge defender of Garrett’s ilk.) But the team at No. 1 could find a tougher trade market than the Titans did in 2016.

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