If I had to draw up a list for reasons why the BNP are gaining ground my list would be topped by Labour sleaze, Labour's failure to control our borders and then Labour's record on crime, housing and poverty. But apparently I'm wrong. Tory European policy is apparently to blame.

"Slowly, the European election is coming to the boil. The Observer rightly highlighted the worry that the BNP will make a breakthrough. It was the Greens in 1989, UKIP in 2004, so perhaps in 2009 it will be the BNP. The Tories have prepared the ground with their constant xenophobic attacks on Europe."

"It's much easier to blame somebody else than address the failings and shortcomings of the current government, which means some voters feel that a fringe party is an attractive alternative. I know more than anybody else what it's like to campaign against the BNP. They got 6,000 votes in my home town of Dewsbury at the last election. Labour either shout and scream that everybody who votes BNP is a racist or alternatively they try to blame us for raising legitimate issues to which they have no answer. It used to be immigration, now it's Europe. Most people who vote for the BNP aren't racist. I accept that they feel so frustrated by the sort of politics they see today that they feel the only way to be heard is to vote for a racist party. They would never want to have them in power. It's their way of giving the other parties a kick up the backside."

There are signs that Labour may be using the BNP to hide their own problems (see John Rentoul today). Something to watch.

Up until now the Tory strategy - strongly advocated by Eric Pickles and accepted by David Cameron - has been to work around the BNP. It's where I've been, too. The idea is to deny the BNP the 'oxygen of publicity' and work harder than them when it comes to pavement politics.

Some Tory MPs are beginning to worry that that strategy may no longer be tenable. One MP told ConservativeHome: 'The BNP activists are not like they were. They don't wear bomber jackets. They don't have number one shaved heads. They don't have tattooes. They look smart. They smile. They are talking about housing and jobs, not race. They aren't fitting the caricature and voters are confused.'

At a meeting of Conservative Peers earlier this week the rise of the BNP was evident from a number of regional presentations made by party campaigners.

CCHQ isn't currently moving from its 'no oxygen' tactic but Tory MPs are mulling alternative options. There is a particular concern to find messages that stop normally Conservative voters from supporting the BNP in June's European elections. Three stand out at present:

Connect the BNP with criminality. This was what The Sun did a few years ago - highlighting the criminal connections of many BNP candidates. 'Voters won't vote for a criminal party,' the Tory MP told me.

Last Friday's Telegraph reported that immigration was becoming voters' top issue. This morning's Times warns of "hordes of unemployed workers heading west" unless radical action is taken to bail out recession-struck Eastern European nations. But although the "rich" EU nations will struggle to afford any bailout this week's Economist uses its cover feature to warn that "western Europe cannot afford not to pay it." It warns of catastrophic implications for EU banks and the wider economy if the East is allowed to fail.

The same issue of The Economist carries an article examing the pressures facing Germany as it moves towards a reluctant acceptance that "the collective" will have to help. The article is illustrated with a photograph of Angela Merkel digging into her handbag.

Both UKIP and the BNP will undoubtedly seize on these issues as June's European Elections approach.

UKIP's political credibility was damaged last night, however, after Robin Page accused his former party's leadership of falling in love with "the high life of gravy and status". Writing for The Telegraph Mr Page said: "The party created to fight centralised government, sleaze and corruption has become a parody of itself, a mirror image of the body it professes to loathe." UKIP is dismissing the attack as sour grapes after the former presenter of BBCtv's One Man And His Dog was prevented from standing as a UKIP candidate in East Anglia.

The biggest electoral hurdle for the Conservatives and the General Election are next June's European Elections.

A strong showing by the Kilroy-Silk-powered UKIP at the 2004 Elections somewhat derailed Michael Howard. UKIP are a shadow of their former self but the Tories worry about a strong BNP performance. The BNP won a seat on the GLA during this year's London elections.

It is the duty of the Conservatives to ensure that voters feel their concerns about European integration, immigration and crime are being heard by the mainstream - as well as highlighting other Conservative themes of free trade, concern for the environment and international justice. Our manifesto for those Elections must have policies in all of those key areas to minimise any swing to the extremes. A pledge to hold a referendum on Lisbon, a transparency agenda for MEPs' expenses and the Tory plan for a Border Police Force must all feature in our campaign.

Some Tory MEPs favour term limits as a way of stopping their colleagues from 'going native'. One MEP supports making a link between the UK's budget contribution and improved auditing of the EU budget.

Rupert Matthews, one of our East Midlands MEP candidates, has already been leading a ConHome discussion of what could be included in our manifesto.

In today's Times Tim Hames warns of "shock" BNP victories in May's elections. He points to recent BNP successes in local by-elections and also the fact that the far-right party needs just 6% or so to win a seat on the Greater London Assembly. The BNP scored just under 5% in the last round of GLA elections and the decline of UKIP - which has considerable voter overlap with the BNP - may lift them above that crucial threshold.

There are at least three important qualifications that need to be added to Tim Hames' important article:

The BNP, not unlike the LibDems, is very good at pouring activists into by-elections. BNP activists will travel hundreds of miles in the service of their cause. It is much harder for the BNP to do well when elections are being fought all across the country.

The BNP promised a breakthrough in last year's local elections but gained just one seat (net). They also promised 1,000 candidates and only fielded 700. To put that one gain into context, the Greens gained 25 seats net last year.

On paper the possibility of the BNP winning a GLA seat in London looks likely but it might be avoided if the Boris V Johnson race produces a high turnout. If Boris can energise voters across Zones 4 to 6 and Ken Livingstone motivates his rainbow coalition of supporters, turnout might be sufficiently high to prevent London electing a BNP Assembly Member. We can only hope.

Conservative MP Dr Julian Lewis has resigned his life membership of the Oxford Union in protest at its decision to hold a 'Free Speech Forum' with BNP leader Nick Griffin and David Irving, jailed in Austria for denying the Holocaust. Television presenter June Sarpong, Defence Secretary Des Browne, and Austin Mitchell MP have also protested at the Union's decision by pulling out of future debates.

In his letter of resignation, Dr Lewis wrote:

"Nothing which happens in Monday's debate can possibly offset the boost you are giving to a couple of scoundrels who can put up with anything except being ignored. It is sheer vanity on your part to imagine that any argument you deploy, or any vote you carry will succeed in causing them damage. They have been exposed and discredited time and again by people vastly more qualified than you in arenas hugely more suited to the task than an undergraduate talking-shop, however venerable."

Local LibDem MP Evan Harris, due to speak at the Forum with Griffin and Irving defended the invitation for the two men to speak:

"The measure of our country's respect for free expression is our willingness to allow it for the most objectionable and offensive lawful speech, not just for those with whom we agree."

"Nick Griffin likes nothing more than parading around in gags, saying he is being censored. I want us, the liberal mainstream, to show that we are not afraid to take him on in a debate, we will defeat him, and we will beat fascism every time."

Nick Bourne AM's personal blog was our blog of the week recently and a post attacking the BNP has reportedly produced 180 complaints to the Welsh Assembly's standards committee. The leader of the Welsh Tories described the British National Party as a “nasty, mean, distasteful and grubby bunch of sub-human flotsam and jetsam”.

“I have no intention of withdrawing any of the comments I made about the British National Party and its membership. Nor will I apologise for making them. The BNP is a divisive, dangerous organisation which exists to spread fear, hatred and bigotry. There is no place in a civilised society for their views and people from all political parties and none should stand together against them.”

I wouldn't use Mr Bourne's language but my guess is that 99% of those 180 complaints were from BNP activists. Mr Bourne writes an excellent blog and I hope he'll continue to express his views with passion.

Yesterday Plaid and Labour agreed to form a ruling coalition in the Welsh Assembly. Mr Bourne will lead the opposition to that coalition. The Welsh Conservatives had hoped to form their own governing alliance with Plaid and the LibDems.

Noting that 342,000 people voted for the BNP on 3rd May, Charles Walker MP has written a short paper for the Cornerstone blog - issued today - that recommends that we do not allow political correctness to get in way of defeating Nick Griffin's party.

Mr Walker disputes the suggestion that the BNP has distanced itself from its "thuggish past":

"Those who dare criticise it will often find their names posted on websites such as Red Watch and Stormfront and become the subject of fevered online discussions between white supremacists. Indeed, the relationship between these ultra-fascist websites and the BNP is too overt to ignore and strongly suggests that the BNP continues to be the legitimate political wing of the 'skinhead' faction. We need to make this connection in the minds of those self-professed 'decent' people who feel, in their words, 'forced' into voting for the BNP as a way of registering their frustration at the mainstream political parties."

The paper argues that "continued concern surrounding Islamic fundamentalism and the real or perceived unwillingness of the Government to talk sensibly about immigration and integration" feeds the BNP its political opportunities.

Mr Walker's paper contains a range of recommendations on housing and immigration policies. It also argues for Conservatives to reat the BNP as a party of the left:

"Politically the Conservative Party should not shy away from positioning the BNP as another Party of the left operating in an increasing crowded space populated by Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Respect and the Greens. All of these parties favour high-levels of state intervention, big government and top down problem solving. As the allocation of its few council seats suggests, the BNP is not the natural home of Conservative-minded voters and the party must work and campaign to ensure that this remains the case."

The scan above (click to enlarge) comes from tonight's London Evening Standard. It appears that Tories in Broxbourne are using the example of last year's BNP wins in Barking to scare voters away from the far-right party. The Standard's Paul Waugh writes:

"The [Broxbourne] leaflet claims that Barking, which elected 12 BNP councillors last year, saw homes rise by 1.2% compared with the London average of 9.1%. It says the difference meant Barking homeowners lost out on an average £17,000 over past year. In 2005, the year before BNP got elected, Barking homes increased with the London average."

ConservativeHome has discovered another Tory leaflet that is much harder hitting. Tories in Holbeach, Lincolnshire will tonight be delivering a leaflet (the full text of which is published below) that compares the fight against the BNP today with that against Hitler in the 1940s. Over the top? What do you think?

The Holbeach Tories are attempting to unseat a councillor who defected from the Conservative Party to the BNP nearly a year ago. BNP leader Nick Griffin has visited the ward and BNP activists have distributed large volumes of literature in support of their three candidates. Local Conservatives had ignored the BNP up until now and had focused on positive reasons to vote Conservative. Tonight's eve-of-poll leaflet represents a much more aggressive tactic.