Zogby says…

Famed pollster John Zogby came to Albany for a talk at the Fort Orange Club, sponsored by Excelsior College as part of their “Windows of the Future” series.

This is what Zogby had to say about Decision ’08:

The undecideds matter: “In the past, what we’ve done is reallocate the undecideds. If I have so and so leading 50-40, 10 percent undecided. I’ll eliminate the undecideds and come up with a final number. It’s too volatile to do that these days. Why is it so volatile? We have many more people who identify as independents, who are centrists.”

New to 2008, centrist voters: “The centrist voter is back. And I mean it is back. It wasn’t there in 2004. In 2004, you were part of one of two warring groups.The centrist voters are non-ideological. What are they telling us they want? A competent manager, someone who can command the military, strong personal values, someone who can work across the aisle. Those are non-ideological views.”

The single issues won’t matter as much this year: “Gods, guns, and gonads. Those issues are less on the table. Among evangelicals, there are changes. They’re demanding from the pulpit… environment, health care.”

For Super Tuesday

Republicans: McCain goes in with advantages. Many are winner-take-all, advantage McCain. However, you are seeing conservatives rally around Romney. Romneyâ€™s biggest dream is for Huckabee to drop out. Advantage McCain.

Democrats: “Advantage no one. Itâ€™s too close. Even here in New York, polls from last week showed Hillary leading by 20 points. Those are moot now. Things have changed since South Carolina. Barack Obama is not a black candidate. Heâ€™s putting together a coalition.”

“More important than winning states, is more important for winning delegates. Youâ€™re going to have two candidates with competitive sets of delegates. The group that decides this nomination are going to be the super-delegates. And they are undecided. Those super-delegates become more and more important.”

The heart of the Democratic party at stake here: “Itâ€™s more than just the personal animosity between Obama and Clinton. Warring demographics in the party. Young voters, older women, and minority voters…Iâ€™m not sure if those wounds get healed.”

General election: “The general election will very competitive.”

Rudy Giuliani: “I never thought that Rudy Giuliani would be the nomineeâ€¦.why? Heâ€™s out of the mainstreamâ€¦.he led by virtue of name recognition. Republicans like strong leaders, youâ€™re never going to be able to take 9/11 from Rudy Giuliani. Even with the defeat, even with the degree of humiliationâ€¦heâ€™ll always be Americaâ€™s mayor. His campaign was also between extremely risky and terribly foolish…This is a sequential process. What makes the whole thing foolish was that it was arrogant. It brought out the worst feelings that Americans have about New Yorkers in the first place. I can say that because Iâ€™m a New Yorker.â€

The what-ifs?: “The 800 lb gorilla. What is Al Gore going to do? Or might he just wait in the wings?…Al Gore the fresh face. Thatâ€™s interesting”

Bloomberg: “Thereâ€™s Mike Bloomberg. If Hillary is the nominee, a polarizing figure, Mike Bloomberg is prepared to get in there…The fact that Mike Bloomberg doesnâ€™t run like Ross Perot. Bloomberg is the ‘good Rudy’.”

Election of defying conventional wisdom: “This is a great year. And itâ€™s a great yearâ€¦the people are defining this election. They are defying conventional wisdom…Iowans, New Hampshire, are defying conventions. The Democrats are defying the most popular Democratic president…Bill Clinton.”

People voting their demographic: “When African-Americans saw that Obama had a chance, thereâ€™s no question that they were going to support him.”

“When women saw Clintonâ€¦they bonded with her. That is what the tearing up incident meant… That tearing up suggested to themâ€¦older women said her struggle is mine. This is the last ceiling and this defines our lives and our struggles. Younger women, no. No sense of that whatsoever…”

Advice for the candidates: “Americans want proof that someone can get the job done and reduce their anger. The first one that makes nice wins this election…just go straight for the positive.”

Odds: Republicans: “McCain favored. Voters are voting anti-establishment and Romney is the establishment candidate. The best place to be is the insurgent challenger on Super Tuesday.”

Democrats: 50/50. For Super Tuesday, possibly for the whole thing.

Zogby disclaimer: “Do not go to your bookie for what I just said…let it play out.”