What to watch in Virginia

CULPEPER, Va. — Turnout in tonight’s Virginia governor’s election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli will unquestionably be a lot lower than in last year’s presidential election.

The question is how low it will go.

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More than 70 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in 2012; about two in five are expected to do so on Tuesday. If turnout drops substantially below the 40 percent mark – if all the nasty attack ads about legitimately flawed candidates leave a chunk of voters so depressed they decide to stay home or vote for the libertarian – we could be in for a more suspenseful election night than most are expecting.

With that in mind, here are the key things to watch as exit polling and returns come in.

Does McAuliffe have coattails?

Cuccinelli’s weakness at the top of the ticket has heightened GOP fears of a Democratic sweep.

Republican attorney general candidate Mark Obenshain is outperforming his running mates by a few points—trailing slightly but still in the hunt. But strategists agree he will almost certainly get wiped out if Cuccinelli loses by six points or more. Democrats say it’s even possible that they could oust Del. Bob Marshall, the social conservative responsible for many of the legislative controversies that have dogged Cuccinelli in Northern Virginia.

Democrats would then hold all three top statewide offices—governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general—as well as both U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 1969. Party strategists think they might be able to pick up as many as five state legislative seats if it’s a really good night.

The outer exurbs of Northern Virginia are a good place to see if a tidal wave is in the making. Cuccinelli will get crushed in the inner D.C. suburbs of Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria, but he thinks he can hold his own in the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William County.

Loudoun was long Republican, but it’s become much more competitive. McDonnell won the county, which includes Leesburg, by 22 points in 2009, but Obama carried it by 4.5 percent last year. The Democratic nominee for attorney general, Mark Herring, happens to represent the county in the state legislature.

Also watch Republican-leaning Chesapeake, a suburb of Norfolk on the coast. Obama got exactly 50 percent of the vote there last year after McDonnell won by 20 points. If Cuccinelli loses there, it’s going to be a blow out.

Will black voters show up without Obama on the ballot?

Some African-American leaders have expressed concern that black voters will stay home. If they do, the race will be much closer than the polls suggest.

Blacks came out at a higher rate than whites last year, but their participation historically drops off at greater levels in off-year elections than is the case with other demographic groups. African Americans made up a fifth of the electorate last year but only 16 percent in 2009, according to exit polls. Since they vote almost monolithically Democratic, that’s a very big difference.

The McAuliffe campaign has built a huge portion of its field program around mobilizing black voters. Former President Bill Clinton went into an overwhelmingly black section of Richmond to make an explicit pitch for the community to turn out, and Obama was only a little more subtle Sunday.

Democrats hope to overperform among whites so that they’re not as dependent on black turnout. Obama lost Virginia whites by 24 points last year, and the 2009 Democratic nominee lost by 35 points. McAuliffe’s campaign aims to lose whites by no more than 12 percent, aides say.

Is Sarvis a spoiler?

Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who ran for state Senate as a Republican in 2011, has pulled double digits in some polls largely by attacking Cuccinelli over his views on social issues like gay marriage.

His strong performance prompted Cuccinelli to attack Sarvis’s libertarian bona fides in recent weeks and talk up his own. The Republican fears Sarvis enough that his final rally Monday was with former congressman Ron Paul, who ran for president three times as a lower-case-L libertarian. That’s in addition to three events with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) last week.

A lot of people who tell pollsters they back Sarvis will probably stay home rather than vote for a candidate who has no shot of winning. But Cuccinelli hopes a bulk of them break his way out of a desire to beat McAuliffe.

Internal McAuliffe forecasts show the first 5 percent for Sarvis probably comes evenly from McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, but anything above that threshold comes two-to-one from the Republicans. Monday’s Quinnipiac poll found Cuccinelli winning 85 percent of self-identified Republicans, while McAuliffe wins 93 percent of Democrats.