Prop. C spells trouble for Carnahan

While Washington is obsessing over what the results of Missouri’s anti-health care reform ballot initiative mean for President Barack Obama, the state’s political insiders are debating whether it’s Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan who needs to be worried.

A staggering 71 percent of Show-Me state primary voters cast ballots Tuesday opposing the new federal health care law — a symbolic yet resounding message that places Carnahan on the opposite side of a supermajority of the electorate.

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The overwhelming vote in favor of Proposition C, a measure crafted to reject a portion of the law that requires most people to carry health insurance by 2014 or pay a fine, is the first tangible demonstration of how unpopular the president’s signature achievement remains in the Midwestern state.

Republicans argue the result from the country’s first proxy vote on the health care law is an ominous sign that bodes ill for Carnahan’s chances of capturing outgoing Republican Sen. Kit Bond’s seat this fall. As they see it, the lopsided vote crystallizes the challenge she faces in explaining her support for the legislation as she attempts to narrow her deficit in the polls with Rep. Roy Blunt, the Republican nominee.

“This is a very difficult issue for Robin Carnahan, because the crown jewel of Obama’s legislative career has been health care, and 71 percent of those voting in the primary — people who are going to come back in the general [election] — are voting for this,” said Patrick Tuohey, a Kansas City Republican who managed the Yes on Prop C campaign.

Democrats argue that placing the referendum on an August ballot stacked with more competitive Republican contests intentionally skewed the outcome.

For instance, while Republicans had competitive House primaries in the 4th and 7th Congressional Districts and an expensive statewide campaign for auditor, most Democrats on the ballot faced only nominal opposition. And 65 percent of the Senate primary ballots were cast on the Republican side, where Blunt disposed of a nominal challenge from tea party favorite state Sen. Chuck Purgason, 71 percent to 13 percent.

Even White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, when asked to assess the impact of the vote, glibly replied, “Nothing.”

“I don’t understand why people are treating this outcome as a surprise. This was a primary electorate. The single most important fact to come from Tuesday’s results is that Republicans don’t like health care reform. Stop the presses!” said Democratic consultant Roy Temple, who has worked on races in Missouri.