Can they survive unlucky 13?

It wasn't there when we wrote this morning, and it's worth reading: Pete Caldera gets to the point with his entry today, pondering whether or not the Yanks will make the playoffs. He lists reasons to hope, and reasons to worry about the Yanks' chances of making a 13th consecutive playoff appearance.

But the question then becomes: which do we have more of? Reasons to hope or worry? A look at the plain MLB standings offer both: the Yankees lead the majors in runs scored (big surprise). But, they are below .500 on the road. But then, if you believe the coolstandings.com predictions, there's almost nothing but hope: they list the Yankees, based on remaining strength of schedule, runs scored and other factors, as 64.4% likely to make the playoffs. That's far better than the 14% they were listed at months ago.

There's more reason to hope when looking toward the Pythagorean standings at Baseball Prospectus. The good news is that, based on runs scored and allowed, the Yanks (77.6-49.4) should be about one game behind the Red Sox (78.1-48.9). But, get this nutty stat: based on runs scored and allowed, while the Yankees should be approximately 78-49, the Mariners, who of course lead the Yanks in the wild card race, should be 65-60 -- a difference in the standings of 12 total games.

If the Yanks could turn that one-run game record around, and they were 16-11 instead of 11-16, they'd be exactly tied with the Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Frustrating, but still, reason for hope.