'Labour core voter support slumps'

Wednesday 31 January 2007 00:01 BST

Labour's support among its core voters has slumped in recent weeks, with the party dropping eight points in the space of a single month, according to a new poll.

The dip has given the Conservatives a five-point lead in the survey for the Independent, which puts David Cameron's party on 34% (down two points compared to a similar poll last month) and Labour on just 29%.

But the main beneficiary of the exodus of Tony Blair's Labour voters appears to be Sir Menzies Campbell's Liberal Democrats, who soared seven points to 21%.

The CommunicateResearch survey is believed to be the first major poll to show Labour dipping below 30% since the time of Neil Kinnock's leadership in the 1980s.

It comes after a series of bad headlines for Labour about overcrowded prisons, missing offenders, financial problems in the NHS and cash-for-honours arrests, and against the backdrop of US President George Bush's decision to send more troops to Iraq.

Tellingly, just 64% of those who identified themselves as being generally Labour supporters told the pollsters that they would actually vote for the party now.

This compared with 82% of those who see themselves as natural Tories who said they would vote for the Conservatives - suggesting that Mr Cameron has succeeded in winning over the bulk of his party's traditional supporters despite his move onto the political centre-ground.

Liberal Democrats enjoyed the backing of 80% of their natural supporters, as well as 11% of those who said they were usually Labour voters. Some 15% of those identifying themselves as Labour backers said they would now vote Tory.

The poll indicated that Labour is more popular among women (31%) than the Tories (30%), while the Conservatives led the male vote by 39% to 27%.