In Senate races, money isn't all

Republicans are losing the money battle in four crucial majority-making Senate races. But they might win the war regardless.

Senate hopefuls in Missouri, Montana, Wisconsin and Nebraska each turned in shoddy year-end fundraising totals, and in three of them, Democrats hold a commanding cash-on-hand advantage — but GOP officials aren’t setting off alarm bells just yet.

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They believe the political dynamics at work in each of the four states — and the helping hand of deep-pocketed, Republican-friendly super PACS — will lift their candidates to victory despite the cash deficit.

Missouri

No state is more illustrative of this dynamic than Missouri.

First-term Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) begins the year with a $2.6 million edge over her three GOP opponents, but operatives in both parties agree she will remain one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.

The latest survey by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling showed McCaskill deadlocked with each of her rivals and her approval rating mired at 43 percent.

The trio gunning to replace her — manufacturing CEO John Brunner, Rep. Todd Akin and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman — combined to raise just over a third of what McCaskill took in during the final three months of the year.

But strategists believe no amount of money can help McCaskill counteract the forces at play in Missouri: President Barack Obama is projected to lose the state by at least 5 to 7 points and could be a drag on the senator no matter which of her challengers emerges from the fray.

“If she wasn’t raising $5 million, she wouldn’t even be viable her numbers are so bad,” said Kansas City-based GOP consultant Jeff Roe. “Whoever the nominee is, with the super PACs and … [campaign finance reports], it’s going to be a race. I go across the country, and Republicans know Claire McCaskill needs to be beaten. They’re just going to wait for the primary. But they’re chomping at the bit to get at her.”

Patrick Tuohey, a conservative blogger and operative in the Show-Me State, said the fundraising disparity is misleading and that donors are more inclined to give to a third-party group like American Crossroads until the primary sorts itself out.

“Karl Rove is a known quantity. You know [McCaskill’s] going to be the nominee,” he said.

On top of outside forces, Brunner has shown an inclination to self-fund, having already dropped $1 million into the race.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, where the retirement of Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl has created an open seat, Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin lapped her opponents for a second straight quarter.

Her $1.8 million cash on hand is close to double what her closest two Republican rivals — former Gov. Tommy Thompson and former Rep. Mark Neumann — carried into the new year.