000
FXUS61 KCAR 181309
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
909 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cold air mass will remain in place across the
region through early this week as high pressure slowly builds to
the south of the area. Low pressure will pass well south of the
Maine Wednesday, but may move closer to the area late in the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:00 AM Update...Skies remain clear across the area except for a
bit of stratus beginning to poke into the far north. Lowered dew
points across the area and backed off just a bit on midday
cloudiness with the dry air expected to limit clouds just a bit.
The strong sunshine is still expected to result in some cumulus
and possibly stray flurries late. Otherwise, no major changes to
the forecast this hour.
Previous discussion:
An air mass more typical of mid winter will remain entrenched across
the region today. A broad and deep upper low covers eastern Canada
with low centers off the Newfoundland coast and across northern
Quebec early this morning. The low in Quebec will slide southeast
and across the area tonight. A northwest flow will continue between
high pressure in central Canada and low pressure east of the
Maritimes. The flow aloft becomes diffluent later today ahead
of the incoming upper low. The combinaton of increasing
instability below 850H due to strong March solar heating and
cold air aloft will likely generate some instability snow
showers this afternoon, mainly across the northern zones.
Temperatures will continue to be more January like with highs in
the teens north to the mid 20s at Bangor and along the coast. A
gusty northwest wind will add to the chill with wind chills 5
to 15 below early this morning in the north. Any snow showers
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Can`t entirely
rule out some flurries or an isolated snow shower as the upper
low crosses the region tonight, but it looks moisture starved so
not expecting much, if anything. Otherwise, partly cloudy and
continued cold with lows mostly in the single digits to teens
along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in the
vicinity of Labrador on Monday with continued Northwest flow
across northern Maine. Across northern and central areas,
expect partly sunny skies along with the continued chance for a
stray snow shower or flurry. Across down east, expect mainly
sunny conditions. Highs will continue to be well below normal
for this time of year. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy
skies across the region Monday night, with lows continued below
normal. On Tuesday, high pressure will continue to build across
central Canada as an area of low pressure begins to move east
of the mid atlantic region. Expect partly to mainly sunny skies
across the region on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be a few
degrees warmer but still below normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will begin to move east from the mid atlantic
region Tuesday night and then northeast on Wednesday, as high
pressure builds across Quebec. Expect mainly to partly cloudy
skies Tuesday night and partly to mostly sunny skies on
Wednesday. Low pressure will then track northeast Wednesday
night and then toward central Nova Scotia on Thursday. Expect
increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Mainly cloudy skies can
be expected on Thursday with a chance( 30 to 40%) of snow across
eastern areas as the low tracks northeast toward Nova Scotia.
It should be noted that the Canadian Hemispheric tracks the low
further west than both the EC/GFS, and take it through the gulf
of Maine on Thursday. The low will then continue to track
northeast toward New Foundland/Labrador Thursday night through
Friday, with partly to mainly cloudy skies expected. Looking
ahead toward next weekend, mainly dry weather is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected at the Downeast terminals through tonight.
At the northern terminals, MVFR ceilings will likely develop this
afternoon with brief IFR in isolated to scattered snow showers.
Conditions should improve to VFR tonight. A gusty wind may produce
some local blowing snow this afternoon.
SHORT TERM: VFR weather conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.
Thursday could see MVFR conditions or lower in developing snow.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect through tonight.
The strongest wind will likely be this afternoon into this evening
with wind gusts to 30 knots.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday
and Monday night and then again Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/MCB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda