Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 Bounce-Back players

With no Dodgers or Angels making the cut, here’s a look at my 10 favorite bounce-back players who should deliver the most bang for your buck this season:

John Axford, Indians, relief pitcher:

After averaging 35 saves in his first three seasons, Axford lost his closer job in April and wound up with zero saves. Milwaukee traded Axford in July to St. Louis, where it was revealed that he was tipping his pitches. Still armed with a high-octane fastball that produces a plethora of strikeouts, Axford could be a top-10 closer that’s going in the 17th round.

Curtis Granderson, Mets, outfield:

The Grandy Man was done in by two errant pitches last year, fracturing his forearm in spring training then his pinky in May. He was limited to 61 games, resulting in just seven homers after averaging 42 the previous two seasons. The groupthink on Granderson moving across town from the Yankees to the Mets will result in far fewer homers with the switch in ballparks, but he was only marginally better in Yankee Stadium over the past three season – 49 homers at home to 42 on the road. Granderson could return fourth-round value at a 10th-round price.

Jason Heyward, Braves, outfield:

Despite a second-half surge after being inserted into the leadoff spot, Heyward’s production fell from 27 homers to 14 and 21 steals to two over the past two seasons. Heyward has Kemp’s ceiling without all the surgeries and can be a top-20 player being drafted in the sixth round.

Tim Lincecum, Giants, SP:

The two-time Cy Young winner is coming off a second straight disappointing season, averaging 10 wins with a 4.76 ERA in that time. His main bugaboo has been the long ball, which if he gets back under control in cavernous AT&T Park could make him a top-20 starting pitcher being drafted in the in the 20th round.

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Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks, catcher:

Montero slumped from 88 RBIs in 2012 to 42 last year and dropped from a .286 average to .230. He maintained his normal walk rate and didn’t see a major uptick in strikeouts. It appears the bad season was mostly just a case of too many balls being hit right at defenders. Montero should be able to get back to being a top-10 catcher that you can get around the 20th round.

Angel Pagan, Giants, outfield:

Pagain was felled by a hamstring tear last year that eventually required surgery and cost him over half the season. He was coming off a three-year run where he averaged 33 steals and nine homers, but managed just nine steals and five homers last season. Concerns over how the hamstring injury may affect the 32-year-old’s basestealing have Pagan going in the 21st round, about ten rounds later than he went the year before. As cheap as Pagan can be had, there’s very little risk for what could be a tidy reward.

Josh Reddick, A’s, outfield:

Reddick was bothered by wrist problems all season that wound up needing surgery in October. Reddick followed up his 32-homer breakout of 2012 with just 12 homers last season - five coming in a two-game outburst in August. There were two very good signs hidden in the disappointing season - his walk rate rose to a healthy 10.4% while his strikeout rate fell to 19.5%. The surgery was more of a cleanup, so I’m confident a big-time bounce-back is coming from the powerful outfielder being drafted in the 18th round.

CC Sabathia, Yankees, starting pitcher:

The Yankees ace never looked to be at full strength last year coming back from offseason surgery and finished with an unsightly 4.78 ERA. A thinned-down Sabathia picked up steam as spring training went on, giving me confidence that he can get back to being the 230-inning horse he was. He’s going in about the 15th round but could pay off like a fifth-rounder.

Mark Teixeira, Yankees, first base:

Teixeira suffered a wrist injury last spring training that would eventually require season-ending surgery after a brief 15-game stint where he hit .151. His swing’s been a little slow to come around this spring training, but the chance to get a player who averaged 34 homers and 110 RBIs in his first 10 seasons is too much to pass up in the 16th round.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves:

Uggla has been prone to long slumps before, but he was unable to break out of a tailspin that resulted in a .179 average last season. He was having vision problems that were addressed with lasik surgery last August, but the results didn’t show on the field with a .091 post-surgery average that got him left off Atlanta’s postseason roster. Uggla has looked good this spring and could get back to his 30-homer ways for the low price of a 24th-round pick (if your draft even goes that far!).

B.J. Upton, Braves, outfield:

In the pantheon of bad seasons, Upton’s 2013 campaign ranks down there with the worst of them as he hit .184 with nine homers, 30 runs and 26 RBIs in 126 games. Fantasy owners are completely writing off a player who averaged 17 homers, 84 runs, 69 RBIs and 37 steals in his first five full seasons. Even a modest recovery would make him a steal going in the 21st round.