I'm seeing a real trend here -- California pollsters are showing Bustamante with solid leads, while the national pollsters tend to place Arnold ahead.

The reasons are simple -- each polling outfit must make certain assumptions as to who will turn out, and how many of them will do so.

If the turnout models assume a high Latino and Democratic turnout, then Bustamante wins and Davis has a fighting chance. If Democrats don't turn out, then Davis is assuredly out and either Arnold or McClintock get to be governor for five months until the next recall election.