*V.F.'*s Final Oscar Picks

It's strange the way people talk about movies during awards season, as if they were living beings rather than finalized works of art. We talk about the "momentum" of a performance that's been in the can for over a year, or the "narrative" of a movie's best-picture prospects. The true narrative, of course, is the winding course of our discussion of these films, which, thanks to a proliferation of Oscar punditry across the media landscape in recent years, has more ups and downs than Alec Baldwin off his meds.

And so, while we here at Little Gold Men are sticking with our mid-September assertion that Kathryn Bigelow will win best director, there are a few predictions we made as recently as a month ago that we'd like to change to reflect changes in Oscarland's mood: since The Hurt Locker won the editor's guild award, we find it hard to imagine it won't also win the best-editing Oscar instead of Avatar. Also, we honestly don't know what we were thinking when we picked Il Divo for best makeup over Star Trek. We just really dug those ears.

Anyhow, these are our final picks and we're sticking to them. We've updated the Vanity Fair Hollywood iPhone app accordingly. Be sure to return to VF.com on Oscar night to watch us either gloat insufferably or—more likely—eat our words as we live-blog the ceremony. (There will also be tons of other content, including real-time photos of the Kodak theater's red carpet, interviews with guests of the Vanity Fair Oscar party, live-tweeting from inside party central at the Sunset Tower Hotel, and more.)

Without further ado, the picks. For the record, we're still hoping James Cameron wins, if only so that he may perform this speech.Best Picture

Avatar, James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers

The Blind Side, Nominees to be determined

District 9, Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers

An Education, Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers

The Hurt Locker, Nominees to be determined

Inglourious Basterds, Lawrence Bender, Producer

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, and Gary Magness, Producers

A Serious Man, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers

Up, Jonas Rivera, Producer

Up in the Air, Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, and Jason Reitman, Producers