Figuring out Russia’s political future

As Russia’s presidential election draws ever closer, public opinion about the country’s political future are becoming more and more diverse.

Russia Beyond the Headlines asked the experts and representatives of different political forces if Russia will see an escalation of protests, a "tightening of the screws" or even some other options.

Elena Panfilova, the head of Transparency
International-Russia

The fact
the opposition rally is scheduled on Monday after Election Day means that the
authorities are hardly likely to take tough measures to prevent it. At least
they have already started the dialogue with people and are ready to make
concessions. Although it doesn’t significantly change the whole political
situation, this may be seen as good sign.

Gregory Fiefer, a former correspondent
for Radio Liberty, writer and a specialist in U.S.-Russian relations

Honestly I can't predict
events after the election - anything could happen, although I doubt there will
be an Arab Spring-style revolt and I certainly don't believe there will be
civil war. Protesters against Putin have made simple, unassailable demands for
gradual change that could chip away at the closed nature of his rule by opening
politics to competition. The likeliest scenario is an ongoing struggle over the
country's future. Putin's recent actions have undermined his crucial image as a
strong leader, a key ingredient of the traditional political culture he
restored in Russia. But his authoritarian powers will be supported by a group
of loyal cronies at the heart of the political-economic system and reinforced
by powerful security services and a culture of pervasive corruption that gives
vast cadres of bureaucrats and many private citizens a stake in the system – and
would require sweeping changes in society's behavior. Much will come down to
whether the political and business elite will come to believe its security
would be better protected under a new leader – and how far Putin is willing to
go to remain in power. He indicated in an interview published today (March 2)
he may want to run again in 2018.

Vladimir Kashin, deputy chairman of the
Communist Party of the Russian Federation

The problem
is very serious, but hopefully it will not result in a civil confrontation. A
lot will depend on the vote day: [it remains to be seen] whether the
falsifications will be revealed and the carousel practice and ballot stuffing
will take place [again]. The situation is very complicated and, unfortunately,
the authorities don’t understand that only honest elections and the legitimate
power are the only way to deal with the public unrest. They plan to orchestrate
the falsifications during the elections, and don’t understand that it may bring
about unpredictable consequences like it was during the 1990s. Yet I think that
there are many officials who do understand that they may face criminal charges
for the misconduct and try to observe the orders of the authorities.

It’s
necessary to stop the lawlessness to prevent the events that might shake the
country again. We need the
legitimate power that will be recognized not only in the country, but in the
world.

Gennady Gudkov, State Duma deputy, Just Russia
party

A civil war
results not from elections, but from the inadequate reaction of the
authorities. And our authorities have demonstrated their inability to respond
adequately to the public indignation and the demonstrations. Any political
scenario is possible in these circumstances because most of the people don’t
want to live among lies, unfulfilled promises and state-controlled
television. It depends on the
authorities’ action whether we’ll see a confrontation in the society.

All
revolutions are orchestrated by the authorities. And Vladimir Putin is the
biggest revolutionist in Russia. He may provoke revolution if he doesn’t start
the dialogue with people.

Dmitry Ilyushin, deputy chairman of the Yabloko
party

Given the
discriminatory attitude to the presidential candidate from the Yabloko party,
the elections may result in public unrest. Although the authorities heard the
people but they don’t fulfill their demands. This may bring about new
demonstrations, but not the revolution – people don’t want to experience
another political upheaval. I am afraid the authorities may provoke the public
unrest to find a good reason to oppress the opposition like it was in
Belorussia.

Valentina Matvienko, Chairperson of the Federation Council, in an
interview with Kommersant.ru

We
witnessed the political upheavals in history when the radicals wanted the
country to be shaken. It’s necessary to talk about it to be prudent and
cautious. The authorities and law-enforcement agencies should take all measures
to prevent the violation of the law and violence.

Today the
authorities don’t prevent people from taking to the streets and expressing
their point of view. Moreover, the president met with the opposition, he
listened to them and took into account their proposals. And as you see everything was conducted with
the decency. The TV channels broadcast the rallies and gave people an
opportunity to be heard.

This is the civilized democracy, and we should
encourage it. But if the meetings are provocative in the beginning, the
authorities should act in accordance with the law.