000
FXUS63 KICT 041736
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1136 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
Today-Monday:
Clouds/precipitation should continue to end from west-east
throughout the morning. Expect precipitation to be east of the
area by noon. Expecting decent recovery today in absence of high
level clouds, with weak downslope flow and insolation offset by wet
ground and low sun angle. Hedged just a bit warmer in west where
effects of insolation will be longest. Tonight is a challenge
with wet ground keeping dew points up and return flow developing.
Hourly temperatures likely a challenge with marginal mixing
keeping temperatures fluctuating throughout the night, but net
result was to hedge a bit warmer in the west. One more warm day
anticipated on Monday with a decent breeze from the south.
Compact southern stream system may clip a small part of Southeast
KS with light rain in the afternoon.
Monday night-Tuesday:
Precipitation chances/coverage ramp up a bit in Southeast KS in
the evening as system moves closer to that area. Otherwise cold
air still on track to blast through the area later Monday night
and early on Tuesday. Cold air advection will be slightly offset
by insolation, but brisk north winds will make it feel even
colder. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
Models have become pretty consistent with snow developing towards
daybreak Wednesday as a fast moving shortwave interacts with
baroclinic zone. Considerable differences between GFS/NAM soundings
for Wednesday morning. However both suggest, albeit via slightly
different means, potential for brief period of efficient snow
production. This would support a few inches of snow over parts of
Central and South Central KS Wednesday morning. Below freezing
temperatures will linger through Thursday before the warmup
commences on Friday and Saturday. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016
Low clouds and associated fog are now moving rapidly out of the
state. Conditions will improve over the next several hours so
that by sundown, conditions will be VFR.
Fog is the main concern mainly along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike. The front stalls and with light wind behind it, the
situation is ripe for fog along and east of the Kansas Turnpike.
The lowest visibilities are expected to be in southeast Kansas
where KCNU is expected to drop to 2 miles or less. There is a time
period from 10z-13z where a mile or less could occur. KICT should
be in the MVFR range.
By 14z, winds at all locations will become southerly with skies
and fog ending.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 52 31 53 30 / 20 0 0 10
Hutchinson 52 29 53 27 / 10 0 0 10
Newton 50 32 52 27 / 20 0 0 10
ElDorado 51 31 52 30 / 30 0 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 52 31 53 31 / 40 0 10 10
Russell 51 29 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 51 29 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 50 30 54 25 / 10 0 0 10
McPherson 50 29 52 26 / 10 0 0 10
Coffeyville 54 31 53 35 / 80 0 20 40
Chanute 51 30 53 32 / 80 0 10 20
Iola 50 30 52 32 / 80 0 10 20
Parsons-KPPF 51 30 52 34 / 80 0 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KRC