Buck 46, Norton 37: Weld DA Carries Small Edge Into Homestretch

The Ken Buck for U.S. Senate campaign has released a new poll conducted by Magellan Strategies that shows little has changed in his race since June. The top line result indicates voter preference for Buck over Jane Norton by the margin of 46-37.

Last month Buck led Norton 42-32. As expected, the share of undecided GOP primary voters has shrunk over the past six weeks. Interestingly, the Weld County DA has a 20-plus point lead among voters ages 18 to 44, but his edge is in single digits among older voters.

The only other change of note is a slightly better move in favorable ratings for Jane Norton. In June, the former lieutenant governor had a 37 favorable / 31 unfavorable rating. In the new poll her respective ratings are 45 / 34. Norton has gone from a +6 to a +11 in favorability, a small positive bump. Buck still has the true advantage in image among voters at 52 / 23 (up from 39 / 13).

One final question in the poll that may have a bearing into the general election… When asked which candidate has run a more negative campaign, 48 percent said it was about equal. 35 percent opted for Norton, and only 17 percent chose Buck.

Another small difference between the two polls: The July edition sampled 759 voters, compared to 1,026 voters in June — making the margin of error slightly larger at + or – 3.5 points.

The Buck campaign decided not to release complete crosstab data for this poll because, according to spokesman Owen Loftus, they “don’t want Norton in on it.” But he insists the most crucial information was included in the release.

Analysis? This survey indicates Ken Buck retains a small advantage in the race, but it isn’t in the bag quite yet.