Poll: Faulconer leads, tight race for 2nd

San Diego City Council members and mayoral candidates Kevin Faulconer, left, and David Alvarez, right, along with former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, center, debate at the Logan Heights Family Health Center.
— Howard Lipin

San Diego City Council members and mayoral candidates Kevin Faulconer, left, and David Alvarez, right, along with former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, center, debate at the Logan Heights Family Health Center.
— Howard Lipin

Republican City Councilman Kevin Faulconer appears certain to make the runoff to replace Bob Filner as San Diego’s next mayor, but the race to determine which Democrat will join him is a statistical dead heat, according to a new U-T San Diego/10News poll.

Faulconer maintains a comfortable lead with support from 40 percent of likely voters while Qualcomm executive Nathan Fletcher and Councilman David Alvarez are battling each other for second place. Fletcher’s poll numbers have slowly fallen to 24 percent while Alvarez is on an upward trajectory at 22 percent.

Former City Attorney Mike Aguirre, also a Democrat, remains a distant fourth at 7 percent. Just three percent were undecided and four percent said they would vote for other candidates.

The numbers, as they have throughout the campaign, show it is highly unlikely that any of the candidates will be able to top 50 percent and win the contest outright.

“Faulconer will finish first in the special election, but at this hour it’s doubtful he’ll get to 50 percent and avoid a runoff,” said Jay Leve, founder and editor of SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll. “Much more likely, Faulconer will find himself in a runoff but against whom?”

A runoff likely would be held in February.

A U-T San Diego/10News poll conducted two weeks ago had Faulconer at 41 percent, Fletcher with 28 percent and Alvarez at 17 percent.

The most notable difference this time around is the shrinking gap between Fletcher and Alvarez which internal polls from the campaigns have also picked up on in recent weeks. Fletcher, a former assemblyman, has been hit hard with negative attack ads from the left and right as a result of his political evolution from Republican to independent to Democrat over the past 20 months. At the same time, labor groups have spent more than $1.1 million to bolster Alvarez who was relatively unknown citywide before announcing his mayoral bid.

Fletcher’s support has fallen by eight points since an Oct. 13 poll had him leading the pack at 32 percent. Alvarez has jumped up five points in the past two weeks.

The divide among Democrats about which candidate to support is clearly visible in the polling results. Alvarez has 35 percent support from registered Democrats while Fletcher has 33 percent.

The numbers aren’t all bad for Fletcher. He leads Alvarez among the city’s oldest voters — typically a reliable voting bloc — by 10 points.

Leve said Alvarez’s success on Tuesday could hinge on voter turnout among Latinos, a group with often low turnout. Alvarez has support from 34 percent of Latinos compared to 27 percent for Fletcher. Faulconer was backed by 31 percent of Latinos.

The poll assumes the electorate will be 20 percent Latino, which is high compared to recent elections. In last November’s general election — which included the race for president — Latinos made up 15.2 percent of those casting ballots, according to politicaldata.com. In the June primary, the Latino turnout was 10.9 percent.

Leve said the trends favor Alvarez but questioned whether it’s enough to put him in the runoff.