Alan Caruba's blog is a daily look at events, personalities, and issues from an independent point of view. Copyright, Alan Caruba, 2015. With attribution, posts may be shared. A permission request is welcome. Email acaruba@aol.com.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Iran Will Negotiate Until It Becomes a Nuclear Power

By Alan
Caruba

Monday,
November 24, is the deadline for the negotiations between Iran and the United
States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China regarding its program to
build its own nuclear weapons to conclude. At this writing, whether the
negotiations will be extended or not is unknown, but it seems unlikely.

President
Obama has been obsessed with Iran, seeking to change its hostility by finding
an answer to the problem its nuclear weapon program represents. That is typical
of his “magical thinking” whereby something he wants is automatically assumed
to be accessible. In the case of Iran, it has been hostile to the U.S. since
its revolution in 1979 and remains so today.

Iran has
cause. As Marin Katusa, a leading energy investor, explains in his book, “The
Colder War”, the U.S. was instrumental in overthrowing Mohammad Mosaddegh, an
Iranian prime minister who set about nationalizing its oil industry. The U.S.
stagied a coup in 1953 and reinstated the pro-U.S. shah. “Post-coup, the shah
grew increasingly authoritarian and, in 1979, the Iranian revolution forced him
to flee.”

Katusa
reports what followed: “The U.S. government judged it futile to try to reinstate
a pro-Western regime. So it turned its back on the shah and encouraged an
invasion of Iran by Iraq. Saddam Hussein, the secular Iraqi dictator, went to
war against his neighbor, supported by money and weapons courtesy of the United
States.” The war last eight futile years and cost both nations hundreds of
thousands of lives. No need to wonder why Iran hates and distrusts the U.S.

The
essential problem of a nuclear Iran is that it has been an extremely aggressive
nation since 1979. Iran is widely regarded as the primary supporter of terror in
the Middle East. It sponsors two Palestinian organizations, Hezbollah in
Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Iran’s support for bombings and other acts of terror
would fill a book.

Even if
the current negotiations come to an end, Iran still has friends. Two of the
nations involved in the negotiations are an example. Iran is allied with Russia
in supporting the civil war to overthrow Syria’s Assad regime. China is a major
customer for Iran’s oil.

“Though
Iran may be isolated from the United States and Western Europe,” says Katusa,
“Tehran still has allies. Venezuela has advanced $4 billion for joint projects,
including a bank. India has pledged to continue buying Iran oil…Greece opposed
the European Union sanctions because Iran was one of very few suppliers willing
to sell oil to the bankrupt Greeks on credit…South Korea and Japan are pleading
with the United States for exemptions (to the sanctions) because of their
reliance on Iranian oil.”

“Economic
ties between Russia and Iran have gotten stronger every year since Putin became
president in 1999,” notes Katusa. “Finally, there’s China. Iran’s energy
resources are a matter of national security for China, as Iran supplies 15
percent of China’s oil and natural gas.”

Writing in
The Washington Times on November 19, Clifford D. May, president of the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies, took note of the November 24 conclusion
date for the negotiations and asked, “What are the odds they will end with
Iran’s rulers agreeing to verifiably dismantle their illicit nuclear weapons
program? I’d wager 100 to one against that outcome, but I doubt I’d find a
bookie willing to take my bet.”

May
suggested that there may be “a ‘framework agreement’, a statement of principles
that will be the subject of another round of talks. Such a deal could include
another sweetener, e.g., billions of dollars of additional sanctions relief for
Iran.”

If the
U.S. and co-negotiators arrive at a deal that allows Iran to become a nuclear
power it will lose the trust of important Middle Eastern nations such as Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who already feel threatened by Iran.

Ultimately
it does not matter how long the negotiations continue or not. Only one man in
Iran will decide how they end and that is the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, and there is no indication he wants anything less than Iran’s ability
to manufacture its own nuclear weapons to put on its missiles or as bombs. Among
Iran’s neighbors are Russia, China, India and Pakistan, all of whom have
nuclear weapons. Israel too.

The
Iranians have been negotiating a very long time and a recent statement by an
Iranian official sums up what they have been saying for years. “We need more
time to resolve technical issues and don’t forget that the time frame for
lifting sanctions is still a huge dispute.” The longer they negotiate, the
closer they get to having the nuclear weapons they want.

If the
negotiations continue, it will be because the negotiators have once again caved
into Iran and there will be no surprise about that. The real surprise will be
the announcement that Iran has tested a nuclear weapon and, in the end, that
should not be a surprise.

About Me

I am and have been for a long time a writer by profession. I have several books to my credit and my daily column, "Warning Signs", is disseminated on many Internet news and opinion websites, as well as blogs. In addition, I am a longtime book reviewer and have a blog offering a monthly report on new fiction and non-fiction.