February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.

La Niña weakens, almost goneA borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on recordArctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii recordA hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:While it may not sound too threatening, coming from the SPC, they are definitely expecting something big.

WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

That was back when the shear was stronger, and a lot further north, but we will see.

While it may not sound too threatening, coming from the SPC, they are definitely expecting something big.

WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:How come they don't have an area highlighted in the 4-8 day outlook? Is it just because they don't exactly know where it will take place or because it is not bad enough to warrant a threat area?

That, and the fact that model differences were still very extreme this morning when Goss wrote up the discussion. They may have one outlined tomorrow morning.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:The GFS is not as robust as the ECMWF, but there is the potential for a major outbreak next week. Have you not noticed the strong wording from the Storm Prediction Center lately?

How come they don't have an area highlighted in the 4-8 day outlook? Is it just because they don't exactly know where it will take place or because it is not bad enough to warrant a threat area?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:El Niño does not typically have a direct effect on how tropical cyclones track during a year like that. However, with this year featuring a cooler than average Eastern Atlantic, it makes sense to have more storms form and hit closer to home.

Thanks,

Its my own personal observation, that Florida and the Carolina's, as well as portions of the gulf coast are somewhat overdue.

The last hurricane to hit here in Florida, I believe was wilma, and I believe the last major to hit the Carolina's was Isabel.

The last system to hit florida was Tropical Storm Bonnie (40mph?) in 2010 and for the Carolina's, Irene in 2011.

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO HATILLO...UTUADO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 503 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLYNUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREASOF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCINGMODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALLSTREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONGROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 800 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

Interesting fact: The record-breaking tornado season of 2004 started out extraordinarily slow, with only sixty-two confirmed tornadoes in the January-March period. For comparison, up to March 28, 2012, at least 250 tornadoes have been confirmed.

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO OROCOVIS

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 451 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATEDSOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISESIN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FORMUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 745 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTOAREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLYDEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFULENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODEDROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

Anyone else see a bad combination in the Southwest? This continued heat and dryness out there is, as I've said before, going to create a bad wildfire season.

Also relating to fires, firefighters are still struggling to get the upper hand on the one in Colorado, though the weather was a bit more helpful today with lighter winds. Apparently it started as a controlled burn, as far too many do.

If we were to transition to an el niño during the peak of hurricane season would that cause more storms to take a track closer to the islands or united states, or would the effect of el niño be late for this season?

Thank You in Advance

Going into Meterology next Semester.

El Niño does not typically have a direct effect on how tropical cyclones track during a year like that. However, with this year featuring a cooler than average Eastern Atlantic, it makes sense to have more storms form and hit closer to home.

Quoting hydrus: Have you seen the latest Euro run..I do not like it..Link

Yes, I've been keeping tabs on all the models, and we could be looking at a significant tornado outbreak coming into April. So far, 2012 has been beating all other tornado seasons, including last year, at this time with both amount of storms and damage.

If we were to transition to an el niño during the peak of hurricane season would that cause more storms to take a track closer to the islands or united states, or would the effect of el niño be late for this season?

Quoting CybrTeddy:I would think it obvious, but to be honest I'm getting annoyed about this. It would be one thing if this was a one time only event but this has been going on for the better part of three years. Cyclone2012 = Troll, the same troll that has been pestering this blog for years. Whether that he is JFV or not is irrelevant, though if I had to place it I doubt it's JFV it's more than likely a former blogger who's ticked off about a previous ban. What he wants to do is get a reaction from you, that's why I generally tend to ignore it but I just had to put it out there. The ignore button is like HeadOn, whenever applied all pain evaporates.

I would think it obvious, but to be honest I'm getting annoyed about this. It would be one thing if this was a one time only event but this has been going on for the better part of three years. Cyclone2012 = Troll, the same troll that has been pestering this blog for years. Whether that he is JFV or not is irrelevant, though if I had to place it I doubt it's JFV it's more than likely a former blogger who's ticked off about a previous ban. What he wants to do is get a reaction from you, that's why I generally tend to ignore it but I just had to put it out there. The ignore button is like HeadOn, whenever applied all pain evaporates.

A tornado outbreak sequence (or extended tornado outbreak) is a period of continuous or nearly continuous high tornado activity consisting of a series of tornado outbreaks over multiple days with no or very few days lacking tornado outbreaks.

A tornado outbreak is the occurrence of multiple tornadoes spawned by the same synoptic scale weather system. Beyond this, there is no single agreed upon definition, and the number of tornadoes required to qualify as an outbreak typically are at least six to ten.

The atmosphere across Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri is becoming primed for Severe Weather. Mesoscale Analysis reveals MLCAPE between 1000-2000 j/kg across Eastern Kansas, along with 55 knots of Effective Bulk Wind Shear. LCL heights lie near 1000m, revealing that an isolated tornado or two is possible with any supercell that can get going independently. Mid-level lapse rates are extremely high, and accordingly, the main threat across this area will likely be very large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 30% hatched area for large hail, and we may get a few 3"+ reports (it would not surprise me). An MD was sent out a little while ago, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued soon.

Quoting washingtonian115:em I'm sorry I didn't see your post.On one of them it had copy right violation so I had to get rid of it fast. They have been sending me e-mails and in some cases had gotten rid of some of my pictures.

Copyrighted images, I understand.

But you're having others deleted? What has been the reason given in the emails?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:Looking at WunderBlogAdmin's profile, everybody that was permanently banned was accidentally unbanned in 2008. I wish they could do that sometimes, I think people deserve second chances.

WunderBlogAdmin has a profile? I've never seen an admin post on the blog. And I agree about the second chances. However most who get banned probably deserve it.