Conservatives win in Lithuania

The conservative Homeland Union has emerged as the strongest party in Lithuania, confirmed its first-round victory in a popular vote on 12 October by adding 26 seats in directly contested constituency elections held on 26 October.

With a total of 44 seats in the 141-member Siemas, the Homeland Union now faces the challenge of forging a coalition, but the expectation is that Andrius Kubilius, the party’s leader and a former prime minister, will form a government without the Social Democrats, which has been the largest party in various coalition governments over the past seven years.

Kubilius, who served as prime minister from 1999 to 2000, is likely to pick up the support of two parties that were in the previous administration, the Liberal Movement and Liberal and Centre Union, which would together bring 19 seats. To make up the eight seats need to secure a parliamentary majority, Kubilius might turn to the newly formed National Resurrection Party, which gained an unexpected 16 seats under the leadership of a talent-show host, Arunas Valinskas.

There is also the possibility of a rainbow coalition with the Social Democrats, whose 11 seats in the first, proportional-representation round and 26 seats in the second round’s direct elections make it the second-largest party in parliament. Its leader, Gediminas Kirkilas, who has served as prime minister since 2006, is open to the idea and President Valdas Adamkus has also been keen on the possibility. However, Kubilius has ruled out such an option during the election campaign.

Kubilius is likely to strive to adopt the euro in 2011, but slowing growth and double-digit inflation may make that timeline hard to keep. Kubilius has indicated he will try and tackle the current economic problems by slashing government spending, reducing personal-income taxes and reducing the number of exemptions from the value-added tax.

Relations with Russia are likely to remain frosty. The Homeland Union was, for instance, heavily critical of its eastern neighbour’s war with Georgia in August. However, Vilnius’s foreign policy will be complicated by growing dependence on Russian energy, as the country’s only nuclear power plant, which meets 90% of Lithuania’s electricity needs, will be closed down in 2009. Lithuania is looking for alternatives, but even the infrastructure project that could be completed earliest – the laying of energy cables from Poland or Sweden – will not be ready before 2012.