China Economic Update – 22 October 2014

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely…

China’s latest economic data was a mixed bag – with many measures comparatively negative (against the trends of recent years) but stronger than somewhat pessimistic market expectations. While year-on-year GDP growth was at a five year low, the growth rate remaining above 7% will likely be enough to avoid further broad based stimulus – measures opposed by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC).

As we have previously outlined, this result needs to be viewed in context. Last year’s mini-stimulus program distorted activity in Q3 2013 (pushing growth higher), and as a result, sustaining the growth momentum from early 2014 was always unlikely this quarter.

Our forecasts remain unchanged, with economic growth at 7.3% in 2014, and slowing further to 7.0% in 2015.

About the Author

Gerard has over a decade of experience as a professional economist, currently specialising in international economic research. He is responsible for monitoring and forecasting trends in emerging Asian economies, with a particular emphasis on China. He is also a member of the bank’s commodities research team, focusing on trends in iron ore and coal markets.

Gerard joined NAB in 2005, and previously focused on risk analysis across a range of industry sectors in Australia and abroad. He had particular expertise in areas such as Mining, Manufacturing, Healthcare and Retail, including the development of research into online retail sales. Prior to joining NAB, he was an economist with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, focusing on commodities and energy research.

He holds Bachelors degrees in Economics (with Honours) and Commerce from the Australian National University.