Likely coldest April since 1895 – U.S. farmers delay planting crops

Farmers are suffering as the cold, wet spring has put a stunning halt to agriculture. Ice Age Farmer Report – 19 Apr 2018

Soil temperatures are below normal, and not conducive to planting yet.

“Temperatures going down, greenhouses going up. Crop losses continue globally, and we must all be preparing for the times ahead.”

Ice Age Farmer highly recommends putting in your own greenhouse.

“According to Mike Tannura of T-Storm Weather, there’s a strong correlation between historically cold April months and below trend yields. On Monday, Tannura told AgriTalk After The Bell host Chip Flory that April 2018 will go down as one of the three coldest Aprils since 1895.

“Based on the data we’re looking at today, there’s a chance it could be the coldest of the entire period going back to 1895,” he said.

Simon,
Both your link and mine are from 2017. Whom are you going to believe, alarmists or scientists?
But even if a majority of NZ glaciers have continued their retreat since the end of the LIA in the 19th century, so what? That’s what you’d expect.
What you wouldn’t expect, if man-made CO2 were responsible for any and all retreat in the second half of the 20th and first part of the 21st century, why would so many glaciers in NZ and around the world be advancing rather than retreating? Why would the Antarctic ice sheet be gaining mass?
Clearly, CO2 has nothing to do with ice waxing or waning.

Cmon guys even if all the 200000 glaciers in the world were to melt the sea level would only go up 400mm.
So how in the hell can the New Zealand glaciers not be affected by the same CO2 that is supposedly mixed evenly in the atmosphere. CO2 is not causing glaciers to melt if the IPCC agreed increase in temp for the last 100 years has been only 0.75C Since when did reason leave most of humanity?. Answer When they started to believe in a religion called Glaobal Warnimg. Believing in a religion makes you dumber. See this whole global warming hoax makes me sick. it isnt funny anymore . These carbon taxes are ruining our economies while the Chinese and the Indians laugh.

Simon April 26, 2018 at 6:50 pm
Arctic sea ice generally declined in the dedicated satellite “data” from 1979 to 2012, but has grown since then. Antarctic sea ice generally grew from 1979 to 2014, but, thanks to freak WX during the super El Nino of 2015-16, pulled back since 2014.
Please explain how then sea ice could possibly be reacting to steadily increasing CO2 from C. 1945?
And also how land ice could possibly be reacting to CO2, since glaciers were already generally retreating since AD 1850, but some in this century have grown, some stayed the same and indeed some continued waxing. All the mountain glaciers in the world aren’t a pimple on the posterior of the mighty East Antarctic Ice Sheet, repository of most of the fresh water on earth, which has been growing despite steadily rising CO2.
Thanks.

Simon April 26, 2018 at 6:50 pm: I followed your link, and I did not see the graph you posted. Please tell us where to find at your linked source a graph showing 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 1981-2010 average and the band of +/- 2 standard deviations from the 1981-2010 average of Arctic sea ice extent (area that is at least 15% covered by ice).

Chimp April 26, 2018 at 7:32 pm:
You mentioned the East Antarctica ice sheet, but there is also a west one that is also orders of magnitude greater than all mountain glaciers in the world combined. The west one has been getting hay/hey made about it in recent years. One thing to consider is whether the ice sheet of all of Antarctica is gaining or losing mass. Studies using different satellites disagree, which is pointed out by the following Climate Audit article. That article leaves me an impression that there is a slight preponderance of evidence that the ice sheet of Antarctica as a whole has been losing mass from 2008 to the time that article was written:https://climateaudit.org/2015/12/02/antarctic-ice-mass-controversies/

Simon
Simon, don’t you just love it, from the article – in 2005 15 of the 26 glaciers that were growing in the world were in New Zealand.
There are thousands of glaciers in the world, who has been watching them all.
Regards

Simon April 26, 2018 at 11:20 pm
What would be a lose would be if sea and land ice were increasing. Thank God they are not. Less ice is good.
Arctic sea ice has been growing since 2012. Antarctic sea ice grew all the while Arctic was declining. Hence, no CO2 signal.
Mountain glaciers on balance have been retreating for 300 years. CO2 has nothing to do with it. But in any case, mountain glaciers are at most a rounding error on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. And Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets are insignificant compared to the growing East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
So where in all this is there any correlation with CO2 growth since 1945?

Myth: “Since 2011, most New Zealand glaciers had gone into rapid decline.” –Simon, 2018
Science says: Whether the glaciers advance or retreat, it is always consistent with the global warming paradigm, and thus can be allowed by our troops without stupid attempts to refute.

It may seem unusual—this regional cooling during a period of overall global warming—but it’s still consistent with human-induced climate change,” Mackintosh adds.

Compared to the LIA, glaciers are smaller? So what?
Compared to the 70’s, the coldest period during the last 100 years, glaciers are smaller. So what?
Why do you believe that slightly smaller glaciers is bad for anybody, much less the catastrophe you believe it to be?

@ Bruce …imo, that is exactly what happened. They were one 30 year period away from being correct. If they had the more detailed info which we have today, then they probably would have gotten it right the first time.

@ SocraticGadfly – Only 5th?! Shouldn’t every year be the “Hottest Year EVAH”?!
Okay, okay, I AM straw-manning you on purpose because the weather is a tricky, finicky thing such that the climate models have never been right and will never be right.

In the Quincy area (think server “farms) work in orchards and vineyards got underway early because of dry and cool conditions. Pruning is over and fruit trees are blooming — apricots, apples, and so on. New orchards have been put in. Field work is underway.
The USA is a big country and this region, between the Rockies and the Cascades, is often different weather-wise from the Mid-West. 2018 is well within “normal” conditions. Late January and 1st half of February were on the warm side. Since then not so much.
Then yesterday temp = 78°F and today it is 83°. NWS has charts for Yakima and a few other places.Yakima weather 2018
On the wet side of Washington, Mt. Baker finished with 70 feet of snow.Scotts weather blog – KOMO

Normally, here in Snohomish County, we have the cattle out on grass by April 1st. This year, due to cold nights, the grass was late, and heavy rains made the fields too wet to pasture. Finally got ’em out April 17th.

No no no, the sun comes out to stay on July 4th weekend. July 4th itself is 50-50 on being cool and wet or warm and dry!
For my section of PNW weather. We finally got a stretch of warm and dry but today it’s 25 degrees cooler and trying to put all the water back in the ground that just dried out.

WX phenomena can be and are determined by climatic trends as well as by the vagaries of meteorology.
One snowstorm in Africa could be a freak WX event, but after a number of winters in a row with such previously unusual occurrences, climatic change might be the underlying cause.

For me, to determine if it’s climate rather than weather, an absolute minimum amount of time required is 500 years, preferred is 1,000 years. After all, we must not jump to conclusions (this is a somewhat sarcastic and snide remark to those who only think in terms of a few decades or so.).

John,
Climatologists will accept as few as three decades, but of course, three centuries would be better and three millennia best of all, which is about the interval in which the Holocene has been cooling, but 5000 years ago was also about as balmy, if not more so, than the Minoan Warm Period.
On longer time scales, it was a lot colder 30,000 years ago and the average global climate of the past three million years has been much frostier than the vast majority of the Phanerozoic Eon, ie the past 540 million years.

You’re right.
This is weather, not climate.
If it meant anything more it would be indicative of one year making the climate.
And it would disprove the effectiveness of the climate models. But it doesn’t.
It means nothing.

Of course. We all know only unusually warm weather is climate, unless we are talking about unusually unpleasant weather – heavy snowfall, very heavy rain or a prolonged drought, which also counts as climate.

And…Those poor primitives back in 1895 hadn’t invented “Climate” yet. So they couldn’t have climate, could they? Silly primitives! They were freezing and boiling and nothing to blame it on except weather. They helped and supported each other when they should have been at each other’s throats for causing their discomfort!

Well it is not called the climate change for nothing! It has to cover every freaking possibility of weather, including the ‘nothing special happened’, which is actually very rare.
There any 190 nations in the world, 12 months/52 weeks/365 days, several (if not dozens of) variables, two ends. Probability that some place has a weather record of some kind exceeding a 100-year event approaches 100% given some (not much) time.
What is the probability, that a hundred-year record of hourly rain is broken during a year in some town bigger than 10,000 inhabitants? There are so many hours and so many towns that a freak thunderstorm will happen and break the previous record. There are so many places where rain is measured a direct hit becomes more and more probable.
A weather record as such is not really news. It might have local significance, but not global.

You could be arguing with a greenie about it while a glacier was advancing towards the 2 of you. While the glacier was swallowing up the greenie and you were scampering to higher ground the greenie would be screaming global warming caused this. That is how stupid; believing in a religion makes you.

My local weatherman said Oklahoma might have its coldest April on record this year. We’ll know in a few days.
I didn’t plant an early garden this year and I’m sure glad because I would have been running out to the garden every other day covering up the poor plants because it has been so cold. I’m just starting to plant right now where normally it would be around April 1.

I’m in the central Oklahoma Metro area.
I just love Portulaca flowers (Rose Moss) and grow them every year. I have to spend very little time tending to them and they reseed themselves and come back annually.
This year, the little plants were up in profusion, but have now been killed by late frosts.
That’s never happened in the many years I’ve grown them.
Fortunately, I have a stock of saved seeds to get them restarted.
Of course, anything can happen with the weather, but the world can’t stand too many years of late Springs in a row, or many people will die of starvation.

All you old timers like me… you remember, in your youth, when every day was exactly 76°F? Remember when it never rained during the day and there was never a dark cloud in the clear blue sky? Remember when the wind never blew above a gentle, mild Zephyr?
Remember all that and more?
Yeah, me neither!

I remember my Grampa told me that he remembered when the snow used to come up to his armpits, he could barely see over it when he went out! It was a long time ago, because he said he was only 7 years old at the time.

It’s true! It’s true! The crown has made it clear.
The climate must be perfect all the year.
A law was made a distant moon ago here:
July and August cannot be too hot.
And there’s a legal limit to the snow here
In Camelot.
The winter is forbidden till December
And exits March the second on the dot.
By order, summer lingers through September
In Camelot.
Camelot! Camelot!
I know it sounds a bit bizarre,
But in Camelot, Camelot
That’s how conditions are.
The rain may never fall till after sundown.
By eight, the morning fog must disappear.
In short, there’s simply not
A more congenial spot
For happily-ever-aftering than here
In Camelot.
Camelot! Camelot!
I know it gives a person pause,
But in Camelot, Camelot
Those are the legal laws.
The snow may never slush upon the hillside.
By nine p.m. the moonlight must appear.
In short, there’s simply not
A more congenial spot
For happily-ever-aftering than here
In Camelot.
from the film- Camelot

I remember in 1975 it was 35C in the shade both in Denmark and France. I was on a 3 week camping holliday with my parents to France. The following year, 1976, it was up to 36C for some time in july, and I specifically remember that the ladybugs were very annoying. It was a drought so they gathered in big swarms close to the water, and bit you to get some fluid.
And then last year the july max temperature reached an impressive 24C.
To me that seems like a noteworthy difference.

It is indeed weather. Here from the NOAA report begins the summary of US weather in March 2018:

During March, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 46.2°F, 4.7°F above the 20th century average. Record and near-record warmth spanned the West and Great Plains, with below-average temperatures in the Northeast. The year-to-date contiguous U.S. average temperature was 40.3°F, 5.1°F above average. This was the second warmest January–March on record, behind the record of 41.4°F set in 2012.

I’m just sooooo amazed how every single time it’s getting warmer. Statistically, not likely. But you have your story and you just keep sticking to it, even if it snows in Yuma in July. Blame it on climate change, take a long “average” period and viola! Hottest July in Yuma EVERRRRRRr.

I remember trying to read that and couldn’t find no head nor tail.
Besides, every time I read Breitbart I see advertisements that are frawdulent on their nature, filling in some desperate location data from my ip. I find it pretty disturbing that they think their l**s actually work on some people wanting to buy a new iPhone for five bucks.

Interesting that they use the “twentieth century average” for this, to make it more dramatic, I assume (in terms of how far above average). The linked map shows they are considering the average for the period 1895 to 2017. Most recent data is indexed to shorter, more recent periods, so I assume that using those periods would result in much less dramatic maps and results. Shame on you Nick, for using such irrelevant data to try to make a point and counter what midwest farmers are seeing with their own eyes, as compared to this misleading data.

“Interesting that they use the “twentieth century average” for this”
That is their standard, in every report. It is a period that doesn’t change. And the fact that you think it makes numbers more “dramatic” does indicate that the climate has indeed been warming.

DJH,
Well, as usual, I invite you to quote some actual numbers. I don’t see a reason for adjusting absolute numbers for stations. Current is usually set as the standard with respect to which adjustments are made, although as a matter of practicality current may not mean the latest month. Anomalies will generally change, because the base period is being adjusted, and that flows through to present anomalies.

Latitude, since the temp they currently report for previous years don’t match the temp they reported at the time for those years, no one with a brain will take you up on that bet. Unfortunately neither with propaganda pushers like Nick.

So….the cause of Global Warming (Man’s CO2) didn’t caused the opposite this April?
April was “just weather” but March was not?
Can we agree that both are just “natural”?
PS I live on just one little spot on the globe. But some of the “record” highs and lows for the period you mention have been fiddled with.

I don’t have the current list of “record” highs and lows for my little spot on the globe to do a similar comparison.
But it is obvious that past numbers have been changed and not by the “weather”.
And these are just for my little spot on the globe. How many other records of “little spots on the globe” have been changed?
PS I got these numbers from NOAA at the time. (I did get a list via TheWayBackMachine for 2002. No change from the 2007 list.)

I didn’t see Nick’s request until today.
John is correct. Columbus Ohio.
(I’ll try to find the NWS web address that can be entered into the “search bar” of TheWayBackMachine to find the past versions of the records. The NWS seems to have changed the address a bit. I had the old one but now I can’t find it. I’d included links in past comments before it was changed.)

Where in the hell did NOAA take the temps in the southeast?
Days of frosts and low temps all the way down to the Ft Lauderdale area. On the Gulf coast, tomato plants were stunted and are just now growing ( they halt when night temp below 50 deg a few nights in a row).
I also seem t remember some snow storms these last few weeks. Not March, but seemingly late.
Oh yeah, they are using some arbitrary 30 year period and “anomalies”.
Gums whines….

“Gums whines….”
Justifiably. The fault is mine and I apologize. As I explained to Bob Koss below, I quoted and linked the report for the wrong year (2017). March was much more subdued – just average. The correct report is here.

offset by much warmer weather elsewhere.??
–
“In terms of temperature departures from average so far this April, the U.S. Midwest, Northern Plains, and much of Canada have been the coldest on Earth.The areas of green have averaged at least 6 deg. F below normal, the areas in purple have been at least 13 deg. F below normal, and spots in North Dakota and Montana have averaged close to 20 deg F below normal over the last 2 weeks.
–
In contrast, the global average temperature has been running 0.5 deg. F above the 1981-2010 average.”
–
Overall the world has been cooling the last 6 months.0.5 f is not very much above average, is it?.

angech,
I made no claims of warming. I only pointed out that April’s U.S. cooling is not representative of the world as a whole.
The world as a whole was cooler (measured by anomalies) from January through March than it was from August through December. That’s more hopeful than the alternative would have been, but it’s still very weak evidence of any sustained trend.

Nick, it was indeed warmer in 2017, as shown in your link. Don’t think there’s any argument there. But my area has been seven degrees cooler, on average, this year. What surprises me is, if you had been keeping up with the weather, you would have known something was amiss with the data in your link.

You betcha! It warmed slightly over the 20th Century so that the most recent years are warmer than the average for the period. Get a grip!
Do you want to bet your society, economy and energy systems against the speculation that temperatures will rise significantly in the 21st Century? IPCC climate models are bunk.

“On this day in 1961, Dwight D. Eisenhower ends his presidential term by warning the nation about the increasing power of the military-industrial complex.”https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/eisenhower-warns-of-military-industrial-complex
American and Canadian scientists believe that soviet experiments in weather control may be to blame for this winters bitter cold weather.https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP81M00980R002000090182-0.pdf
“Between 1980±1997 a large number of ionospheric
modi®cation experiments have been performed using
the HF heating facility located at Ramfjùrdmoen near
Tromsù, Norway (Rietveld et al., 1993; Stubbe, 1996).
Many eorts have been made to study experimentally
and theoretically the ionospheric modi®cation produced
by powerful HF radio waves.”
N. F. Blagoveshchenskaya, V. A. Kornienko, A. V. Petlenko, A. Brekke, M. T. Rietveld. Geophysical
phenomena during an ionospheric modification experiment at Tromsø, Norway. Annales Geophysicae,
European Geosciences Union, 1998, 16 (10), pp.1212-1225.https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/file/index/docid/316449/filename/angeo-16-1212-1998.pdf
The Ultimate Weapon of Mass Destruction:
“Owning the Weather” for Military Use
by Michel Chossudovskyhttps://archives.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO409F.html
“The Sura Ionospheric Heating Facility, located near the small town of Vasilsursk about 100 km eastward from Nizhniy Novgorod in Russia, is a laboratory for ionosphere research [1]. Sura is capable of radiating about 190 MW, effective radiated power (ERP) on short waves[citation needed]. This facility is operated by the radiophysical research institute NIRFI in Nizhny Novgorod[citation needed]. The Sura facility was commissioned in 1981[citation needed]. Using this facility, Russian researchers studied the behaviour of the ionosphere and the effect of generation of low-frequency emission on modulation of ionosphere current. In the beginning, the Soviet Defense Department mostly footed the bill. The American HAARP ionospheric heater, whose operation began in 1993, is similar to the Sura facility.”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sura_Ionospheric_Heating_Facility

Oh, I thought it was Wi-Fi and Cell tower EMF that was making the global temperature warmer. The Ruskies are meddling with our weather. Ok. As if the 5 Mw like HARP directs into the ionosphere research is going to going to generate magnitudes of weather temps warmer. Just easier to adjust the data. First there was fake news, and now there is fake weather statistics. Wilfully and criminally. Maybe the Russians have hacked NASA and NOAA. Or infiltrated?[?? And with that, we will close that line of speculation off, per site guidelines. .mod]

It’s dead easy and reasonably cheap to build a poly greenhouse. link Greenhouse growers build their own. That said, there are lots of commercial crops that would be hard to start in a greenhouse without some kind of new technology. For instance, I can’t imagine planting wheat the same way you plant tobacco. link

Depending on location, the greenhouse will require heat. Mine freezes inside at 29°F much of the time. It’s fiberglass, so maybe that has something to do with it. It is great for protection from hail.
Some vegetables don’t do well in a greenhouse because they need pollinators.
It rains and keeps farmers out of the fields, so I can’t see this is a huge catastrophe. It’s not like farming has any guarantees.

I published in 2002 that global cooling would commence by 2020-2030, and it’s only 2018, so this is definitely weather, not climate. 🙂
All together now, concerning the very cold Winter and very late Spring:
” I BLAME GLOBAL WARMING! ”
There! Feel better? You get a little green medal to pin on your shirt. It reads “Virtue Signal”.
Do I need to say “sarc right off?
________________
Posted last week – probably before coffee.https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/22/earth-day-should-celebrate-engines-and-electricity/comment-page-1/#comment-2798418
[excerpt]
Hi Sara – I just want to wait and see – will the snow melt and the fields dry-out enough to get a crop in this Spring? Will there be an early frost? Will the grain harvest be a good one? Will northern growing areas like Peace River, Alberta be frosted out now or in future years? I have no opinion, being too many years off the family farm.
…
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
We are reportedly at the end of Solar Cycle 24 and into the start of SC 25.
As stated above, SC24 was predicted by NASA (Hathaway) to be robust and has turned out to be a dud – the weakest SC in a century. Leif S and a few others got it about right. SC 25 is expected to be a bit stronger than SC24, but still weak.
I concluded years ago that two consecutive weak SC’s would probably lead to moderate global cooling – we will see – I hope to be wrong about that. It’s a rough analysis, fraught with uncertainty. I’ve asked Tim Ball to do a paper, when he has the time, on the impact of moderate global cooling on northern agriculture.
Let’s hope for a good harvest.
Best wishes to you and yours, Allan

Thanks, Allan. Sunny day today, but it does not help to have a warm day (55F) if there isn’t enough water vapor in the air to hold in the heat at night, and the nighttime temperatures are in the md-30s, AND in the morning there is no dew on the grasses or the siding on my house. Nothing. Air is too dry.
Robins are here, hunting for worms, but having zero luck, so they’re stopping at my feeding station. I will have to get a bag of mealworms and some suet for them next week. The trees are the real indicator, when the leaf buds are NOT responding to sunlight because it’s too chilly at night for the trees to open up and stay open. Trees flower, just like non-woody plants. If it’s too chilly, they won’t open the flower heads and nothing will pollinate.The violets in my yard should be up and there is no trace of them so far.
Everything is out of whack. I don’t know if it’s the low solar yield or what the deal is, but I’m recording everything I can, including using my camera. Even the grass in my yard isn’t growing like it should. The ground is too chilled and we’re not getting spring rains, both of which factor into plant growth. It’s regional, nothing else.
No, this is not the start of an ice age. That started in 1875, in a Wisconsin blizzard that my grandfather recorded in his pocket journal. Check the satellite shots of the snow line up north near Hudson’s Bay. If it doesn’t melt out by July, stock your pantry, freezer, and cupboards.
And make sure you include cheesecake in that. What’s an ice age without cheesecake?

Thank you Sara for your thoughts. Let’s hope for the best regarding the 2018 crop year.
BTW, I predicted this cooling as far back as November 2017 or earlier, based on a close relationship I (and others) developed between Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) and UAH Lower Tropospheric global temperatures (UAH LT’s) 4 to 6 months later. Here are posts dating back to November 12, 2017 – my earlier similar posts on this close relationship between SST’s and subsequent UAH LT’s date from 2016.
Christy and McNider (1994) and Bill Illis developed earlier similar close relationships.https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/28/the-end-of-the-end-of-winter/comment-page-1/#comment-2702794
Hi Andy,
I wanted to first wish you and yours a wonderful Holiday Season and the very best for the New Year.
I recently returned from sunny Thailand (plus 30C) to sunny Alberta (minus 30C) and have had a difficult time adjusting to our Canadian version of “global warming”.
You may recall our conversation of November 11, 2017, excerpted below.
The atmospheric cooling that I originally predicted (4 months in advance) using the Nino34 anomaly has started to materialize in November 2017 – more global cooling should follow. I can only predict 4 months in the future using the Nino34 temperature anomaly, and 6 months using the Equatorial Upper Ocean temperature anomaly.https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1527601687317388&set=a.1012901982120697.1073741826.100002027142240&type=3&theater
Global atmospheric temperatures have reacted a bit later than usual to the drop in Nino34 temperatures, but are slowly returning to their “typical relationship”. This delay in the typical relationship is probably due to the large magnitude of the latest El Nino, such that the excess heat is taking longer-than-usual to dissipate from the ocean through the atmosphere and into space. See the email conversation with John Christy (Nov.4, 2017), located just above on the same page of wattsup.
The sharp decline in the UAHLT global atmospheric temperature anomaly in November 2017 should be followed by even more cooling, down to about 0.0C as I predicted on November 12. I would really like to be wrong about this further cooling, because we are all freezing in most of North America, Prescient people are taking their brass lawn ornaments indoors, such that the extremities do not freeze off.
In the longer term, I expect moderate global cooling, as was experienced from ~1940 to ~1975, to resume. I predicted in 2002 that this moderate multi-decadal global cooling would re-commence by ~2020 to 2030, and this prediction is looking increasingly probable, since solar activity has crashed in SC 24 (and will probably also be very low in SC25).
I hope to be wrong about this last prediction – both humanity and the environment suffer in a cooling world. This human suffering will be exacerbated by the actions of our corrupt/imbecilic politicians, who have greatly compromised our electrical grids due to their over-reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy systems.
Best personal regards, Allan in Calgary
__________________________________https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/11/noaa-la-nina-is-officially-back/#comment-2663851
Allan M R MacRae November 12, 2017 at 1:32 pm
My further analysis suggests the UAH LT temperature anomaly will cool to about 0.0C within about 6 months.
__________________________________https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/11/noaa-la-nina-is-officially-back/#comment-2663875
AndyG55 November 12, 2017 at 1:51 pm
WOW, Allan, you reckon that far, that quickly.
That’ll make things interesting, especially if it continues to drop after that.
_________________________________https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/11/noaa-la-nina-is-officially-back/#comment-2663837
From: John Christy
Date: November 4, 2017 at 7:28:22 PM GMT+7
To: Allan MacRae
Cc: Anthony Watts, Roy Spencer, John Christy, Joe D’Aleo, Joe Bastardi
Subject: Re: Sorted – atmospheric cooling will resume soon
Allan
Yes. We’ve seen this correlation since our first paper about it in Nature back in 1994. The Pacific gave up a lot of heat between July and October – and some of it is making its way through the atmosphere. We think the anomalies will drop soon too.
John C.

Bob,
You are right – I got the wrong report. I looked up a NOAA news items list, and it was the most recent monthly report on the list, so I didn’t ccheck the year.
The March 2018 report is here. It is much more subdued, but still above 20th C average:“During March, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 42.6°F, 1.1°F above the 20th century average. This ranked near the median value in the 124-year period of record.”

Stop the presses! The U.S. warmed slightly over the 20th Century. March 2018 is slightly warmer than the average for the 20th Century. BUT: “This ranked near the median value in the 124-year period of record.”
Based on these alarming facts, lets fundamentally alter our society, economy and energy systems. Not.

In my mid-Atlantic state the morel mushrooms haven’t popped up yet. Normally by the 2nd week of April (spring turkey season) it’s about over. Same as last year.
Tomatoes and bell peppers were nearly a bust last year. No way to plant now. My greenhouse supplier gave up on producing ‘starters’ this year. She said heating was too much. We had cold, cool, and unending clouds last year. First tomatoes were weeks late. No canning options. IIRC the previous year was similar.
Hope a little more sun this year but not extended 90 F days.

It’s not the same as crops, but I’m still having to wear fur-lined slippers in late April in central Virginia; can’t remember the last time I had to do that. Also, haven’t started flowers on the deck – not willing to go out and cover them every night. Hopefully in May. Also, the hedge in front of the house is just now beginning to put out new leaves; usually it would be fully leafed out by now.

For most of my life, I held the belief that the NWS and NOAA would never cheat on me. Even when I started catching them red handed, they would always pretend like nothing was going on, and I would eventually let it go. Like this:
Goodbye Imagene Coco. Hello Judge Judy!https://i.imgflip.com/21sjpz.jpg

Nick constantly leaves the impression that we should not be naturally warmer. Yet every long term natural intrinsic metric you can use will confirm that we should be warmer and the observation data says we are indeed warmer. WUWT????

Nick knows he is full bull, he just likes to argue and he’s good at it. But he can’t explain the unprecedented cooling that pushed us into the LIA and until he can he knows there is nothing unpresidented about our current warming period in fact it is what you would expect.

Now here is something of interest. I was just over at Science News, and a story about C3 vs C4 plants caught my eye. I made a comment, then I did a double take at the graphs displayed which showed the results of the study on the different types of grasses. The C4 graph looked to be fully correlated with the ENSO regions/global temps as displayed by Dr Spencer’s monthly UAH temp graph. Below is the comment which I left in moderation at Science News. Here is the link to the study. Sorry that I have never as yet learned how to work with html, or I would insert the graph. …https://www.sciencenews.org/article/rising-co2-levels-might-not-be-good-plants-we-thought ——————————————————————————————————————————————-
The peak of that last major El Nino occurred in early 2016 after which temps did drop relatively fast, which is typical. That may explain the last years growth rate dropping for both. Actually, here is the rest of what happened from what I can assess from the graphs. This has to do only with the C4 plants as their nutrient intake has not been increased with extra CO2, so a natural state.
The first year represented would be 1999. That takes place during a moderate La Nina. That also means cooler than average temps, and indeed the UAH satellite graph shows that global temps went below the zero trend line all through 1999 with the exception of one month in the year. Then the steady increase for the next several years as global temps rise and the La Nina fades away. The years 2004/05 then spike up as a moderate El Nino takes hold.
That El Nino then falls off through 2005, spikes again for part of 2006, and then plunges into a deeper La Nina and the solar minimum of SC23 which is a prolonged solar minimum of 3+ years. You can see that the graph clearly follows all of that sequence. This is fascinating. I can read the entire graph according to what the climate has done over the years displayed on that graph of C4.

The number of new houses registered to be built in the first three months of the year fell by 14% due to the harsh winter weather, new figures show.

From the Beeb
Nothing to eat and nowhere to live.
Nice.
It would be puerile and childish to suggest the Warmists, with their averages averages averages and Big Willyism about how ‘Climate is not Weather’ are ecstatic about this news.
I might have spent 59 years of my life not getting fatally shot by a manic gunman.
That could change in an instant today. perhaps. maybe. possibly.
So, one day getting shot out of 21,550 not getting shot.
Does that mean, at the end of the month when Warmists maths work out my average days of life, I am ‘on average’ still alive?
Some people are soooooooooooooooo in need of a serious kick up the backside.
(Actually, UK housebuilders need that kick. I recall a documentary about the construction of a super modern, high tech, leading edge design tower-block in Malmo, Sweden. Some people were in for some *serious* penalty clauses if if didn’t get finished on time. The guys working it, 40 & 50 metres up on a steel scaffold framework, were *only* brought down when the wind speed went above 20 metres per second.
Work it out. No shelter. 40 metres up on a steel frame. Late autumn in Sweden. 45mph windspeed
Scary

Too exciting. Forgot to say…..
People are actually talking about dirt, soil temperature etc..
I hope they get to think about why plants don’t normally grow/germinate at temps below what you find in a domestic refrigerator.
There is a connection. Do please think about it and work it through.
And if you fancy doing some Climate Science by recording a temperature series at your house, garden, field or property or wherever and are concerned about placement, sun, shade, wind, water ingress, Stevenson Screens and the like – use Ma Nature’s Stevenson Screen.
Pop your datalogger into a sealed container, recording just once every 4 hours and bury it under 10 to 20 inches of dirt.
Then you get a naturally averaged temp series that bears some real connection with what drives Real Weather & Real Climate — *not* a choreograph of Dancing Faeries so enamoured by warmists

That was not my point. You can clearly see that the C4 plants growth rate follows the changes in global temps, and the changes in the ENSO region, exactly. I am able to correlate growth rate over the entire 17 years of the study to ENSO, and global temps.

Also note that I point out in a comment that the C3 with their faster growth rate will draw more nutrients out of the soil. So it should be expected that at some point that the C3 plants would experience a lower rate of growth as compared to C4 plants.

“I might have spent 59 years of my life not getting fatally shot by a manic gunman.
That could change in an instant today. perhaps. maybe. possibly.”
And that’s only one of the reasons I have various short- and long-guns. One should always want to out-gun their opponents.
One hears the question of why one would need an AR15-style weapon. Notwithstanding one’s need to confront violence with like weaponry, the 2nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution envisions the need for an armed citizenry to confront tyranny in any foreign or domestic form. One, by necessity, needs an effective weapon.
The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the natural right of self protection, ensured by the U.S. Constitution, in that the People have the right to keep and bear arms. They further held that the People have a right to weapons “in common usage,” and not “of dangerous AND unusual nature.”
Since AR15 types of weapons are the most popular rifle in America, I’m OK with owning one.

Unless the mods stomp on me Mark, I get to go on an OT rant at times. The 2nd Amendment is a hell of a lot more important than Gavin Schmidt’s unverified models.
[In general, OT (On-Topic) rants are preferred to OT (Off-Topic) rants, unless such OT (Off-Tropical) rants are made in a sea ice thread in which case they are OT rants about OT subjects in an OT thread. .mod]

If coming years are colder rather than warmer, everyone will need to be armed to protect his or her diminishing stash of canned goods from hungry marauding hordes.
“People” means the same thing in the 2nd Amendment as it does everywhere else in the Constitution and Bill of Rights. Militia members had to provide their own firearms.
While I don’t like direct impingement semiauto rifles, the similarity between semiauto AR-15 and selectfire M-16 make it an appropriate militia weapon, as defined in the 1939 Miller decision (which out of the judges’ military ignorance found sawed off shotguns not to be militia weapons, which they indubitably are, but that’s not the main point). The Heller decision correctly found that gun ownership is without doubt an individual right, as was never in doubt for most of our nation’s history.
[Can the mods assume indirect impingement methods include mortars, howitzers, and ICBM’s? .mod]

It is indeed scary. Just hope that Trump has a couple more opportunities to appoint justices who support the rule of law over that of individuals, ie unelected, ideologically motivated officials with life tenure.

What I find funny is that March was touted as the 5th warmest on record, and more evidence of climate change. Yet April is going to be one of the 3 coldest on record, so that is yet more evidence of climate change. Has anyone here ever heard the old saw about if your only tool is a hammer, all your problems look like nails? The simple truth is, we have no idea what is going on with the climate, and since we quit doing science and research, and started trying to design models that confirmed what we wanted to believe, we are farther away from understanding it now than we were 30 years ago. That is the part that worries me, because I am with Jerry Pournelle on this one. There is no firm evidence of AGW, but it is probably not a great idea to run an uncontrolled experiment on how much CO2 we can pump into the atmosphere of the only planet we happen to have. But if you do not support building more nuclear power plants and hydroelectric plants, then you are not seriously concerned about climate change.

Investors Business Daily (IBD) writes this regarding global re-insurance companies setting premiums on “warming” policies which they know full-well will never be paid out.
“The global warming scare is basically a hoax. Pre-2000 temperatures are progressively cooled, and post-2000 temperatures are warmed. This year has seen a particularly spectacular episode of NOAA’s data tampering, introducing nearly 2.5 degrees of fake warming [three times residual temperature increases] since 1895.”
“NOAA’s errors aren’t random, but systematic. … all (the Agency’s) temperature adjustments lean cooler in the distant past, and warmer as we approach the present. … Far from legitimately ‘adjusting’ anything, (government analysts) are cooking the data to show a politically correct trend toward global warming … that has been part-and-parcel of a (highly politicized, extreme-leftwing) agenda since 1998.”
Meantime, reality bites: Following a 140-year rebound from Earth’s 500-year Little Ice Age, which ended the 12,250-year Holocene Interglacial Epoch about AD 1350, global atmospheric-surface temperatures (GAST) are due for pronounced decline entering a 70+ year Grand Solar Minimum persisting 6 – 7 sunspot cycles from c. AD 2020 through 2100. If deviant hysterics had any sense, they’d begin circumspectly pulling in their horns… by the time climate reality becomes impossible to fudge, these Grand Theft schemes will be legally actionable beyond repair.

I can’t recall a winter and spring this cold (Ok, yes, for a short period of time in late Feb-early March it was indeed a bit warmer than usual) since I was a child in the late 70’s. Back then the trees did not leaf out until well into May, and that is the way things are going this year. We are roughly 2-3 weeks behind where we usually are this time of year in Maryland. Even the cherry blossom festival in DC was a good bit later than usual.
I have yet to cut my lawn (usually start that at the beginning of April) and my daffodils are still going strong (usually all bloomed and spent by now). This was also the first Easter where I truly feared I would have no flowers to pick to make a table arrangement with (though I did get maybe a half dozen early blooming daffodils to make a scaled down arrangement).
And what I also noticed is that in March, once the first few unusually warm days had passed, the typical fickle temperature gyrations were no were to be seen. In this area March is defined by wild swings in temperature (and hence precipitation which can be liquid and warm one day and flaky and frozen the next). But not so this year. In fact, if I had awoken from a long coma and had no calender to look at, I would have swore up and down that March and January could be one in the same. Just a long continuing period of cold temps and frozen precip. Where as March (especially later in the month) usually consists of a couple of bitter windy days, followed by a warmer than normal sunny balmy day or two, then back to the bitter, maybe some moderate days thrown in, and then swinging back and forth until things settle down in early April.
But the March winds persisted well into April this year as well, which is also unusual. Personally I would have loved to have some warming this spring. Sure would have saved me some high heating bills!

mark, you think like i do. when the power goes out the fence round the politicians garden just down the road from me will be burnt. then the doors to the house, then the window frames, then the rest. the virtue signalling elite better hope they got this right, if they don’t it ain’t going to be pretty.

I’ve never experienced an April as cool as 2018’s in NC USA. This has affected my own home-garden vegetable planting. Reliable 50-degree F. nights are still not happening, and probably will not happen until May. This has delayed planting what I would have already planted by now in years past (since I started doing this).
I wonder how cool the summer might be now.

meteorologist in research,
I don’t know the mechanism. That’s why I was wondering. I’m not an expert.
I just found this:https://patch.com/north-carolina/charlotte/nc-spring-summer-forecast-2018-first-look May: The East Coast can expect near-average or colder temperatures in May. The Southwest will likely experience another month of hotter-than-average temperatures.
June: Much of the East Coast will see temperatures that are near or slightly above average.
July: While there is the potential for “big-time” heat in much of the West in July, the Northeast will see temperatures that average or slightly above.

SAID HANRAHAN
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
“It’s lookin’ crook,” said Daniel Croke;
“Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad.”
“It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
“It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.
“The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
“They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
“And all the tanks are dry.”
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
“There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass.”
“If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak–
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If rain don’t come this week.”
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
“We want a inch of rain, we do,”
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
To put the danger past.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o’Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
John O’Brien

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