Why The GOP And The Tea Party Will Be Way Less Crazy During This Year's Debt Negotiations

Sorry to put it bluntly, but the GOP/Tea Party was crazy during the 2011 debt ceiling fight. They "won" because they pulled a Kamikaze move, threatening to put the US into default if Obama didn't agree to a deal of pure spending cuts.

So it's worth asking if the GOP will exhibit similar bluster during the Fiscal Cliff/Debt Ceiling fights that are about to happen.

The simple answer is no, and that can be demonstrated easily in a couple of charts.

Here's a snapshot of Gallup's economic confidence at the end of June 2011, a month before a deal was reached.

Economic Confidence clocked in at a depressing level of -36. Gallup's Job Creation Index was 13.

Now flash forward to today.

There's been massive improvement on both measures.

Furthermore, unemployment has been dropping nicely and house prices are on the rise. And in exit polls, the deficit ranked very low on people's priorities.

Revolutionary movements do well during periods when there's mass anger. All that's fading. GOP intransigents will be much more out of step with the mood of the public this time, and so a Kamikaze move to threaten the economy in the next few months is unlikely.