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The clouds gathering again over the global economy are casting a shadow over cocoa prices.

Europe and the U.S. are the world's No. 1 and No. 2 chocolate consumers, respectively. The euro zone hasn't been able to put its problems aside for more than a moment in the past three years, and the U.S. is trying to keep from going off the so-called fiscal cliff. As a result, cocoa prices could fall another 6% through the rest of the year.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday forecast "weak" economic growth for the region for the near term. While the Greek Parliament's approval of 13.5 billion euros ($17.2 billion) in austerity measures briefly calmed markets, its economy remains fragile, and Draghi said the ECB would be unlikely to help Greece reduce its debt. The European Commission last week forecast a 0.3% contraction in the European Union's economy this year and said unemployment will most likely remain high in 2013.

In the U.S., markets last week quickly shifted their focus from uncertainty over the presidential election to desperation about the automatic spending cuts and tax increases that will hit in 2013 in the absence of a budget deal. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office Thursday said falling off that cliff would trigger a recession, driving unemployment up to 9.1% from last month's 7.9%.

A broad selloff over these prospects—which saw the Standard & Poor's 500 fall 3.5% since election day—already has hit cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate. Benchmark cocoa futures settled at a 3½-month low on Thursday, before posting a slight gain Friday, finishing at $2,358 a ton, or down 3.6%, for the week.

CHOCOLATE'S REPUTATION as an "affordable luxury" hasn't held up very well. Consumers' appetite in both Europe and the U.S. has declined. Last month, the European Cocoa Association reported a 16.2% drop in third-quarter cocoa grindings, the amount of cocoa beans that are processed into chocolate. The measurement is considered a barometer for chocolate demand. A week later, the National Confectioners Association said cocoa grindings in North America dropped 2.2% in the third quarter.

"It's a readily affordable luxury, but if there has to be belt tightening, it's going to be on the list" of items to cut, says Smith.

The International Cocoa Organization's Chairman Dagobert Banzio last month held out the possibility of a 100,000-metric-ton (110,000 U.S. ton) cocoa-bean deficit for the 2012-13 season, which started last month. He cited weather worries for the potential shortfall, which could boost prices.

But those concerns are diminishing. Last Thursday U.S. federal forecasters said an El Niño event—above-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean—is unlikely. The phenomenon can bring damaging dry weather to West Africa, the source of more than two-thirds of the world's cocoa, and similar conditions in Indonesia, the world's third-largest grower.

In the end, the sagging global economy could shave another $150 off prices—pushing them down to around $2,200 a ton this year—as little stands in the way of melting cocoa.