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Olivia Chow would beat Rob Ford in mayor’s race: Poll

Olivia Chow would easily defeat Mayor Rob Ford in next year’s municipal election in all but one scenario where the centre-left vote is split three ways, a new poll by Forum Research shows.

In a one-on-one race, Chow would win with 57 per cent of the vote compared to 36 per cent for Ford, the poll found.

That’s down slightly from a March poll that found she had 60 per cent of the vote to Ford’s 33 per cent, but up from April’s 54-39 split.

“The gap is a little narrower,” Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in an interview Sunday. Bozinoff said Ford may be enjoying a bit of a boost from his recent focus on keeping taxes down. “The ‘Ford Nation’ likes that,” he said, referring to Ford’s supporters.

Ford claimed victory following a recent city hall vote that saw a majority of councillors reject all but two of 14 potential taxes and tolls to help pay for public transit. City council decided to throw the problem of transit funding back in the province’s lap.

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Still, Chow enjoys a very strong lead over Ford, Bozinoff said, referring to the poll conducted May 10. “It’s still quite substantial in Olivia Chow’s favour. She remains a top tier candidate.”

Chow, who is a New Democratic Party MP and former Toronto city councillor, has not declared her candidacy but recently admitted she is “considering” a run for mayor.

The next municipal election is Oct. 27, 2014. All the scenarios in the Forum poll are hypothetical.

The only scenario in which Chow would lose is if the centre-left is split three ways, the poll found. In that case, Ford would edge out Chow with 35 per cent of the vote to her 34 per cent. Toronto city councillor Adam Vaughn would get 13 per cent and councillor Karen Stintz would get 11 per cent.

The Forum poll also found radio show host John Tory would easily best Ford in a two-way race with Tory attracting 50 per cent of the vote to Ford’s 33 per cent.

Tory, a former leader of Ontario’s Progressive Conservative party and former MPP, would also edge out the mayor in a race that included Stintz as a candidate, the poll found.

“Olivia Chow and John Tory are both strong candidates, one from the left and one from the right. As long as they run in an uncrowded field, Rob Ford doesn't have a chance against either,” Bozinoff said in a statement.

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Chow would also win in a contest of “heavyweights” featuring Ford and Tory as her rivals, taking 44 per cent of the votes to their 27 per cent and 25 per cent respectively, the poll found.

Stintz is the only sitting councillor who could defeat the mayor in a one-on-one contest, the poll found.

The random sampling of 974 Toronto residents ages 18 and over is considered accurate to plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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