It never pays to underestimate Gilles Duceppe

St. Jean-Baptiste Day — la fête nationale — has long been a rallying point for nationalists in Quebec. So it’s always a good moment to look at the nationalist vote, especially in an election year.

It’s always been easy for Quebecers to vote for the Bloc Québécois as a defender of Quebec’s interests in Ottawa — to vote for a separatist party without having to vote for separation.

Founded on a litany of grievances — from the death of the Meech Lake accord to the Liberal sponsorship scandal — the Bloc won a majority of Quebec seats in six consecutive elections from 1993 through 2008. Even in the 2008 campaign, when the Bloc was running without a narrative, the Conservatives stupidly provided one with an ad campaign saying a vote for the BQ was “useless” and a waste of money.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe also pounced on small Conservative cuts to cultural programs which were denounced during Radio-Canada’s TV awards show, Les Jumeaux. Asked about it the next day, Stephen Harper said average voters had more pressing concerns than those attending “rich galas”. Duceppe made the most of that, too — as he did with proposed Conservative revisions to the Young Offenders Act to lock up juveniles with adults, accusing Harper of creating “universities of crime”.

Only four weeks before the October 2008 election, the Conservatives were leading the Bloc in Quebec by 34 per cent to 32 in a Leger poll. On election day, the Bloc won 38 per cent of the vote and 49 seats, compared to 22 per cent and 10 seats for the Conservatives; the Liberals won 24 per cent of the vote and 14 seats. That outcome was all about Duceppe making the most of what the campaign gave him.

But in 2011, the Bloc had no storyline, no fresh grievance; the party was reduced to 23 per cent of the vote and only four seats, and lost its party standing in the House. Duceppe lost his own seat in the Orange Wave that saw the man with the cane, Jack Layton, win 43 per cent of the Quebec vote and 59 of the province’s seats; the Conservatives won 17 per cent of the vote and only five seats, while the Liberals took 14 per cent and just seven seats.

In 2015, under the leadership of Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc was headed to about 10 per cent of the vote and zero seats — which was the main reason Beaulieu stepped aside to allow Duceppe to come back.

Growing support for the Bloc doesn’t hurt the Liberals. It doesn’t hurt the Conservatives, either; in fact, it helps them in the Quebec City region. A growing Bloc vote hurts only Tom Mulcair and the NDP.

The arrival of Pierre-Karl Péladeau as leader of the Parti Québécois, the death of separatist icon Jacques Parizeau and the return of Duceppe have all combined to give the Bloc a bump in the polls. In the last two weekly EKOS polls for iPolitics, the Bloc has been on the move.

Two weeks ago, EKOS saw the NDP peaking at 35 per cent in Quebec, with the Bloc at 21 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent and the Liberals bottoming out at 16 per cent. Last week, the NDP were down to 28 per cent, the Liberals rebounded to 25 per cent, the Bloc grew to 24 per cent and the Conservatives held steady at 18 per cent. As EKOS president Frank Graves noted, the Bloc was eating into the NDP vote — and so, for that matter, were the Liberals.

This much is clear — growing support for the Bloc doesn’t hurt the Liberals, who have serious problems of their own with francophone voters. It doesn’t hurt the Conservatives, either; in fact, it helps them in the Quebec City region, where the Conservatives hope to win 10 to 12 seats. Every vote the Bloc takes away from the NDP in the 418 area code is one less the Conservatives have to win.

A growing Bloc vote hurts only Tom Mulcair and the NDP. Where only two weeks ago another Orange Wave looked to be building, the NDP are now looking at competitive races against the Bloc.

Mind you, the New Democrats still have a lot going for them. Mulcair is a favourite son, and in Quebec that usually counts for something. He’s also improving as a campaigner, though Mulcair as a ‘happy warrior’ remains a work in progress. The kids of the NDP Class of 2011 have turned out to be excellent MPs who work their ridings hard on weekends. And only Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau can make the argument that it’s time to throw the Conservatives out; the Bloc can only make the case for defending Quebec’s interests.

But the NDP is definitely in for more competitive races against the Bloc under Duceppe, as opposed to the walkovers they would have enjoyed under Beaulieu. Duceppe may have been out of the game but, at 67, he’s still not over the hill.

What the other parties must avoid above all else is giving the Bloc and Duceppe a new narrative of grievance. If Duceppe isn’t invited to the English-language debates, for instance, he’ll be certain to present that as an insult to Quebecers. The Bloc leader has participated in every English debate going back to 1993. In his five elections as leader, Duceppe has more than held his own in those debates — and sometimes has managed to dominate them.

The first debate, hosted by Maclean’s magazine and Rogers TV, is scheduled for early August. As of now, the Bloc isn’t invited. The Bloc holds only two seats in the House — and Duceppe isn’t sitting in either of them. But if he’s not included, the organizers will be handing him the grievance he needs.

You have only to consider the history of the Bloc, and of Duceppe as its leader, to know what he might be able to do with that.

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94.The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

25 comments on “It never pays to underestimate Gilles Duceppe”

The prospect of yet another Harper majority could be the best argument for Quebec separation in years. But, then again, how would they cope with the flood of refugees? I could see a sovereign Quebec welcoming the scientists and statisticians, at least…

wrong Watachie, The dipper will lose seats to the bloc and Liberals. Ontario is not going so well for Harper which is why he is trying so hard in quebec. He won’t sweep Alberta this time either. Advantage liberal

It will also give Justin a perfect excuse to bash Quebec separation…. after having said “Canada belongs to Quebec”, “Quebecers make the best PMs”, and “Quebecers are better” !!! That should really resonate with true and loyal Canadians in the ROC…. oh yeah..!!!

Wrong again. The Liberals typically have been either 2nd or a good third in ridings where the Bloc dominates. so, if they split the votes with dippers the Liberals will harvest many seats. Tories ar not in the big picture. But then again you are a paid Troy troll, right Mervin?.

MacDonald missed one key point. The Bloc is broke and without the voter subsidy, their prospects for donations are slim. Let’s see if the separatists in Quebec are prepared to put their money where their mouths are.

Wrong Bloc’s not broke, have a few million left from the voter subsidies they received. Don’t hang your hat on that peg – you’ll lose. You’ll also lose if you discount the 10% gain they made since Duceppe came back and the corresponding 10% loss for the NDP in Quebec. MacDonald’s right – never discount Duceppe or the Bloc for that matter. Quebecers often vote en masse in ways and for reasons that are very different, even obscure, from the rest of Canada.

Gilles will bite Mulcair’s derrierre in Quebec and defeat all those stupidly elected unemployed social workers, university students and bar maids that sloshed in on Jacques’ l’Orange Crushez koolaid pisse …. and the only way Mulcair can defeat Duceppe is with a cane and cancer …. ya think?!!

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History will record that the Harper-Reform Party orchestrated Duceppe’s return to federal politics, to split the vote and return Harper to power. Happens all the time.
Vote strategically.
Vote for anybody who can defeat the Harper-Reform Party candidate.
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