Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014
Deep convection began developing near the center of the low
pressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC. The
convection has persisted since that time, has become more organized,
and appears to at least partially cover the low-level center. A
0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a
little elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently
well defined. The ASCAT data also showed an area of
tropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center.
Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.
Genevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical
ridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much
northward progress. The initial motion is 275/9 kt. The break in
the ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24
hours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours.
There is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the
GFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track
and the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude. Given
Genevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't
be surprising. The official forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE.
The upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for
further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. A band of
strong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the
north of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring
the storm into a higher-shear environment. There is more certainty
that vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is
therefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely
becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The
official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus
ICON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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