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The stock market raced ahead last week, up over 2% as the 2013 rally motored on. The Dow Jones Industrial Average came close but failed to reach the 15,000 milestone, restrained by a broad market selloff on Friday.

The week's party ended after four days of consecutive moves higher, and investors showed their displeasure with weak revenue-growth numbers at the money-center banks, which reported first-quarter earnings on Friday. Poorer-than-expected retail sales and consumer-sentiment data released today also put a damper on things.

Nevertheless, at Friday's close of 14,865.06, up 2.1% or 300 points on the week, the Dow is within striking distance of 15,000. The Dow also managed an impressive reversal on Friday, bucking the broad market trend. Down 0.5% at one point, the average finished near highs for the day.

By historical norms, the Dow's current price-to-earnings multiple of 14 to 15 times isn't unusual even for peak earnings, says Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx. And that's not taking into account the low-interest-rate environment. "Dow 15,000 is achievable quickly," he adds.

There's a good chance investors will be breaking out their Dow 15,000 baseball caps soon, perhaps as early as this week. That's something this magazine noted over a year ago ("Enter the Bull," Feb. 13, 2012).

The S&P 500 rose 36 points, or 2.3%, last week, to finish at 1588.85. On Thursday it set a new all-time high of 1593.37. It was a week for coming close to nice round numbers, as the S&P 500 approached 1600, a level that is the 2013 year-end target predicted by some bulls last December. The Nasdaq Composite index, up 91 points, rose 2.8% last week to 3294.95.

Friday's market slide was partially caused by the release of March retail sales, down 0.4% and worse than expectations of flat sales. The University of Michigan–Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index fell to 72.3 in early April from 78.6 in March, below the 78.6 consensus.

The market's rally does appear to have reached a critical mass of strength. For now, at least, losing days and weeks tend to be short and shallow.

"We seem to have a positive confidence loop going, something that was lacking this time last year," adds Cameron Hinds, a regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Bank. Both the market and housing have been going up for some time now, and growing household net worth tends to increaseinvestor confidence, he says.

It's unclear if and when the individual investor will return en masse, but Colas adds, "Anything that puts the stock market at the top of the news in a positive way is helpful to retail interest."

At its analyst meeting on Tuesday, First Solar said it expects 2013 earnings per share of $4 to $4.50 on sales of $3.8 billion to $4 billion, significantly higher than consensus estimates of $3.50 for earnings and $3.1 billion for sales. Last year, the company earned $4.90, excluding extraordinary restructuring charges of about $469 million.

After jumping nearly 50% on Tuesday, First Solar shares eased, but at Friday's close of $37.11 they remain nearly 40% higher than before the analyst day. Yet that's far below the stock's all-time high of more than $300, back in 2008. First Solar and its many rivals have seen their shares plunge in the past five years on lower panel prices and a global glut of manufacturingcapacity.

While the Tempe, Ariz.–based company's immediate outlook is improving, a closer examination of what First Solar said suggests the market has overreacted and has bid the share price up beyond what is justified. It is uncertain how well First Solar will be able to execute on the ambitious goals revealed on Tuesday.

For example, for 2014, First Solar has a target price of $2.50 to $4 in earnings per share, potentially down from this year, which the company attributed to the increased cost of financing projects. The target for 2015 is $4 to $6 per share. The important thing to note here is that, unlike the 2013 figures released, First Solar labeled the 2014 and 2015 numbers targets, not guidance. That distinction was generally lost in some media and research reports following the news.

What's the beef? One ignored but reasonable reading of First Solar's targets could result in earnings per share that are flat at $4 for three years. That risk doesn't support such a stock rise. The skepticism is justified because of the company's checkered history of results. In the past 10 years, there has been a steady and significant slowdown of growth in revenue and net profit.

Meanwhile, gross profit and margins on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization have fallen, too. Last Tuesday, for example, amid the bullish hoopla, the company again guided to a drop in 2013 gross margins, to 20%-22%, from 27% last year. It's a tech company, and that's often what happens in a highly competitive technology sector such as solar.

Even the guidance for 2013 isn't as bullish as the headlines would have it. Pacific Crest analyst Ben Schuman, who attended the analyst day, gives the company credit for putting together an ambitious road map and showing some sustainable cost advantages. However, adds Schuman, who has an Underperform rating on the stock, "the driver of the difference" in improved 2013 guidance results not from new projects but from bringing forward revenue recognition to 2013-14 from 2014-15 for a large project, the 550-megawatt Desert Sunlight solar plant.

That project was contracted years ago at higher prices and margins, and Schuman attributes $1.10 of the 2013 EPS and about $3 for 2014 EPS to pulled-forward sales. Moreover, the 2015 EPS target of $4 to $6 is "built on some aggressive sales and pricing assumptions."

First Solar bulls defend the stock rise by pointing to improved earnings visibility further out to 2015 and its sharply dropping cost basis, and the view that it is a best-in-class company. They note the stock has dropped substantially from all-time highs, now selling at a relatively cheap P/E ratio of 8.5 to 9.5 times 2013 EPS. That's toward the low end of history, but growth is much slower now.

A First Solar spokesman said via e-mail that there was no prior 2013 guidance, "so nothing could be pulled forward." And the use of targets for 2014-15 "reflects the increased uncertainty further out in time."

Nevertheless, the bulls can't paper over a history of contracting growth and margins. The current stock price might be validated by perfect execution for the next two to three years, but First Solar's history doesn't back that kind of optimism. Before the news, First Solar shares might have been undervalued given the 2013 revenue improvement. But does the new information justify a nearly 40% jump?

On April 4, F5 disappointed investors again, saying that results in the fiscal second quarter ended March 31 are expected to be $350.2 million, below guidance of $370 million to $380 million. EPS would be 79 to 80 cents, also down from the company's previous expectation of 93 cents to 96 cents. In the year-prior second quarter, EPS was 88 cents and revenue was $340 million.

F5 blamed a general weakness in buying from North American customers and in particular from telecom clients, as well as from government sales.

This latest disappointment follows an earnings miss in the fourth quarter ended September and a fiscal first quarter where revenue and earnings continued to slow. Then, in January, the Seattle-based company gave an upbeat outlook for the second quarter ended March, so one can't blame investors for taking umbrage.

At Friday's close of $74.98, the stock is down some 20% from $94, when our item was published on March 11. Back then, the shares were already down by a third from almost $140 a year ago. Until mid-2012, F5 investors had been accustomed to strong double-digit sales growth.

These stumbles are a concern. However, the setback is centered in telecom spending and delayed expenditures for F5's products, not its basic competitiveness. That's a consolation. And F5's core ADC business is still doing well, while its small but fast-growing security software, which is rolling out a number of new products this year, should also help.

Over the long term, it's still likely that more digital data will be created year after year, and data-traffic growth will increase sharply. Demand for popular traffic-managing products like the ADCs will benefit. And with that, data security will become more important, not less.

With its leading position in the ADC market and new firewall and security-software products coming out, F5 stands to benefit as the amount of information sent across theInternet proliferates.

As for telecoms, given the expected build-out in the U.S. of the mobile 4G long-term evolution (LTE) system, it's a good bet operators will have to step up spending fairly soon, and that should bring some recovery to ADC over the next 12 months.

Our thesis has taken a hit, and F5's competitive landscape isn't easing. At this point, even a return to $94—breakeven for our item—looks a ways off. It's going to be a longer wait, but it should still be worth it. F5 will release full fiscal second-quarter results on April 24.