Its been interesting to watch JTWC pull their track maps closer and closer with each update. It will be good to see their latest map when it does come out. EC still has it offshore as mentioned above in JTWC detailed explanation. Better than mine lol. Have another beer pops.

I reckon if you had a other beer popeye you could write something even better

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastalareas between Whim Creek and Onslow including the Karratha area during Friday,then extend west to Exmouth overnight Friday and to Coral Bay Saturday morning.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbaracoast becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometres per hourovernight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometres perhour are possible near the cyclone centre.

Gales may extend south to Cape Cuvier during Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday withisolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. Heavy falls are likely near thewest Pilbara coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal hightide mark on Friday night and Saturday, with flooding of low lying coastalareas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the centre ofthe cyclone passes close to the coast.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Mardie includingWickham, Roebourne, Point Sampson, Karratha and Dampier should be takingprecautions.Communities between Mardie and Cape Cuvier should listen for the next advice.

Gee thats just over 24 hrs !!Models say it will take longer than to skim the coast . So Narelle in theory should slow.... Maybe

A bit surprised the barom has only dropped 1 hPa in 24 hrs on the coastal pilbarra?

Onslow airport has had 82 km/hr gusts with the N/easterlies wrapping in.. but surprisingly.. surface pressure has increased? back up to 1002hpaVery high winds for that pressure? and distance from center

Some banding evident now with embedded storms arriving on the pilbarra coast. Plenty of storm activity influenced from Narelle's presence

Don't be surprised if BoM have another correction to the east slightly in their next update. Other runs with centre positioning/track aren't showing that kick to the sth west on BoM's 5.00pm track map and show a more southerly run over the past few hours.

she isnt too far off getting some decent banding on the 500km loop radars which will help in tracking her. interesting night to see how threatening this girl will be.modelling showing she should be some much needed rain to perth and surrounds too. hopefully you all get some.

Hey crikey, Narelle is still too far away from the coast to drop the barometric pressure significantly. Also remember a ridge was pushing up the coast which is squeezing underneath the cyclone, this is also why you are seeing higher barometric pressures and winds along the coast. I'm not suprised that Onslow recieved 40knot winds today with the ridge and cyclone interacting.

Best bet at this stage for tropical cyclone observations will be exmouth on the coast. They will generally see a destabilization starting tonight, with squally showers increasing. You will notice too as each rain squall/band moves over an obs station, with each band the rainfall will increase, the winds will get more intense, the barometric pressure will drop. Then once the band has passed, the winds will ease again, the rain will ease and the barometric pressure will rise once again.

It's a steady destabilization, until you get closer and closer to the eyewall where the gusts and rainfall increase dramatically, and the barometric pressure drops like a rock.

Hope this thing gives pilbara a nice drink but doesn't full on hit there. Hopefully it can hug the coast and smash Perth, as a cat 1 or something- sea temps have been higher than average this year. We had a few fizzer cyclones supposed to hit the last few summers, Izzy and Bianca, Izzy had some rain in it though.

Looks like my uneducated guess may eventuate. I love the cyclone season due to the luck involved and these systems seem to form out of nowhere feeding on the warm soupy ocean. I guess the the ultimate scenario would be a late season cyclone and strong early season cold front converging on the SW, forming some kind of hybrid system giving us massive totals like you guys saw with the La Niņa in the east.

Its a guessing game alright. It looks to be moving almost due south but if you go to the WZ Infra Red Sat maps, just tilt ya head down a bit you can almost see what looks like an eye. If in which its an eye its moving straight west. It could be an anomaly but at borderline Cat 4 it may well be an eye. Next update will be interesting..