Arrogance

Brazilian sunflower … January 2016 .. George Carlin – Arrogance of Mankind ..Image by marsmet492
Judith Curry, a Georgia Institute of Technology climate scientist who often clashes with mainstream scientists, said she found Mora’s approach to make more sense than the massive report that came out of the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said the research ‘may actually be presenting an overly rosy scenario when it comes to how close we are to passing the threshold for dangerous climate impacts.’

“We’re going away. Pack your shit, folks. We’re going away. And we won’t leave much of a trace, either. Thank God for that. Maybe a little Styrofoam. Maybe. A little Styrofoam. The planet’ll be here and we’ll be long gone. Just another failed mutation. Just another closed-end biological mistake. An evolutionary cul-de-sac. The planet’ll shake us off like a bad case of fleas. A surface nuisance.”

I also find myself smiling when I describe the same things to friends. Over the decades of watching things unfold I’ve come to accept what’s happening, and I still see no political movement to do anything about where we’re going – and I don’t expect it. This particular video didn’t mention the changes to the food production, the effects from migrating insects, displacements, or other items that I’m sure were in the minds of the presenters.﻿

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— Tyler L

Nice to see actual people in this field talking about it, not politicians. ﻿

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….. Fourth Listing.1)…. Explore such as new york and london …

Climate Departure: This map shows the cities irrevocable climate change will hit first and what year it will begin if nothing is done to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions

Soc.hawall.edu

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Judith Curry, a Georgia Institute of Technology climate scientist who often clashes with mainstream scientists, said she found Mora’s approach to make more sense than the massive report that came out of the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said the research ‘may actually be presenting an overly rosy scenario when it comes to how close we are to passing the threshold for dangerous climate impacts.’

‘By some measures, we are already there,’ he said.
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……..*****All images are copyrighted by their respective authors ……..

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…..item 1)…. Apocalypse Now: Unstoppable man-made climate change will become reality by the end of the decade and could make New York, London and Paris uninhabitable within 45 years, claims new study …

… Research from the University of Hawaii claims that man-made global warming is now inevitable
… The Earth is going to dangerously heat up over the next 50-years
… The tropics will bear the brunt of the disastrous temperature increases of as much as seven-degrees-centigrade
… Millions of people will be displaced, millions of species will be threatened with extinction… Major cities such as New York and London will fight to survive the rise in temperatures the likes of which humans have never experienced before

The Earth is racing towards an apocalyptic future in which major cities such as New York and London could become uninhabitable because of irreversible man-made climate change within 45-years according to a sobering new study published this week.

Humanitarian crisis’ could unfold, as hundreds of millions of global warming refugees pour illegally across borders fleeing the consequences of the temperature rises which might leave entire regions of the planet extinct of life.
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Hot Topic of Research: Camilo Mora and his team predict that in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently, Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043 as global warming takes hold.

Camilo Mora

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And while the doomsday clock is ticking, with the first signs of change expected at the end of this decade, researchers of the study claim that it is too late to reverse and mankind needs to prepare for a world where the coldest years will be warmer than what we remember as the hottest.

Indeed, the study from the University of Hawaii published online Wednesday in the journal Nature predicts that even if we utilized all resources to stop and halt our current carbon emissions, the changes are irrevocable and can only be postponed.

All things remaining the same, New York City will begin to experience dramatic, life altering temperatures by 2047, Los Angeles by 2048 and London by 2056.

However, if harmful greenhouse emissions are stabilized, New York would be able to stave off the inevitable changes until 2072 and London until 2088.

The first U.S. cities to feel the changes would be Honolulu and Phoenix, followed by San Diego and Orlando, in 2046. New York and Washington will get new climates around 2047, with Los Angeles, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Austin and Dallas a bit later.
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Abandoned Trafalgar Square in London: By 2043, 147 cities, more than half of those studied, will have shifted to a hotter temperature regime that is beyond historical records according to the study

Sky 3D

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Study leader Camilo Mora calculated that the last of the 265 cities to move into their new climate will be Anchorage, Alaska — in 2071. There’s a five-year margin of error on the estimates.

By 2043, 147 cities — more than half of those studied — will have shifted to a hotter temperature regime that is beyond historical records – in what is known as Climate Departure.
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More…

… Ancient forest revealed 1,000 years after being ‘entombed’ in gravel as Alaskan glacier melts

The current projections from the team led by biologist Mora predict that the epicenter of global warming will be at the tropics which will bear the brunt of the initial changes, with temperature rises beginning in or around Manokwari, Indonesia by 2020.

However, if the current emissions were stopped today, Manokwari, which is directly on the Equator, would still experience temperature changes in 2025.
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Epicenter: Mora forecasts that the unprecedented heat starts in 2020 with Manokwa, Indonesia

Alamy

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‘We are used to the climate that we live in. With this climate change, what is going to happen is we’re going to be moving outside this comfort zone,’ said Camilo Mora, the study’s lead author, to
NBC News.

‘It is going to be uncomfortable for us as humans and it will be very uncomfortable for species as well.’

The study claims that by 2050 between 1 and 5 billion people will live in areas with an unprecedented climate, said study co-author Ryan Longman, a graduate student at the University of Hawaii.

‘Countries first impacted by unprecedented climate change are the ones with the least economic capacity to respond. Ironically, these are the countries that are least responsible for climate change in the first place,’ he said.

Frightening Projections: Mora forecasts that the unprecedented heat starts in 2020 with Manokwa, Indonesia. Then Kingston, Jamaica. Within the next two decades, 59 cities will be living in what is essentially a new climate, including Singapore, Havana, Kuala Lumpur and Mexico City.

Future Planet: These projections of global temperature change based on two different climate scenarios show the world from 1986-2005 and what could unfold at the end of this century with a rise in average temp from 32 to 39 degrees centigrade

Photo credit: none listed

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The study from Mora and the University of Hawaii, Manoa, shifts the way in which climate scientists have been examining the implications of greenhouse emissions.

While most have focused on the rapidly warming climate in the Arctic and the effects on wildlife such as polar bears and also sea levels, Mora’s team are concerned with the effects on people – specifically the tropics – where the majority of the world’s population lives and whose citizens have contributed the least to global warming.

It is in the already warm tropics that an increase of only a couple of degrees can alter the balance of life, crippling crops, spreading disease and leading to mass migration away to cooler climes.

‘The warming in the tropics is not as much but we are rather more quickly going to go outside that recent experience of temperature and that is going to be devastating to species and it is probably going to be devastating to people,’ said Stuart Pimm, a conservation biologist at Duke University, to
NBC News.

Mora and his colleagues collated global climate models and built an index of estimates on when a given spot on the globe will change beyond temperatures experienced on Earth over the past 150 years between 1860 and 2005.
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Lost Forever: A new study on the timing of climate change calculates the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems across the world would regularly experience never-seen heat environments based on about 150 years of record-keeping

AP

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To arrive at their projections, the researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data to calculate the point at which every year from then on will be warmer than the hottest year ever recorded over the last 150 years.
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… A city or nation hits climate departure when the average temperature of its coldest year from that point on is predicted to be hotter than the average temperature of its hottest year measured over the past 150 years.

… According to the new study for example, New York City’s climate departure date is 2047.

… That means every year after 2047 will be warmer than New York’s hottest date on record from 1860 to 2005.

… The University of Hawaii’s study predicts that Planet Earth’s climate departure date is 2047

… This indicates how rapidly the globe and mankind is set to feel the effects of man-made climate change – at least according to the new study

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For example, the world as a whole had its hottest year on record in 2005. The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, says that by the year 2047, every year that follows will probably be hotter than that record-setting scorcher.

Eventually, the coldest year in a particular city or region will be hotter than the hottest year in its past.
‘On average, the tropics will experience unprecedented climate change 16 years earlier than the rest of the world, starting as early as 2020′ in Manokwari, Indonesia, Mora said in a briefing with reporters on Tuesday.

He added that if mankind continued to burn fossil fuels, the threshold for the planet as an average globally is 2047 – with temperatures rising by as much as seven degrees centigrade.

If greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized, this date is delayed only by 20 years, as an average.
But, those extra 20 years bought through emissions cuts would could prove crucial for many species’ survival, Mora said.

‘Imagine you are on a highway, and you spot an obstacle in the road up ahead,’ Mora said.
‘Should you step on the gas, or hit the brake?’

‘Hitting an obstacle at a slower speed will minimize the damage to the car and its occupants, in much the same way as hitting a climate threshold at a slower speed would reduce the ramifications for biological systems.

‘The speed at which you face that obstacle is going to make a huge difference.’
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Climate Change Refugees: The changing temperatures could render some nations uninhabitable and lead to uncontrollable migration across borders

Photo credit: none listed

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Mora admits that his study is subject to geographic variables, saying that the changes he is predicting will not occur at the same time across the world.

However, he has narrowed down his projections to a 5-year margin of error either side, which he calls ‘remarkable’, given that the study used 39 different models from 21 teams in 12 countries.

Skeptics such as Eric Post, a biologist at Penn State University, said that while he disagree with the precision of Mora’s study, as with all climate change work, the public and politicians must take note.

‘If the assessment by Mora et al. proves accurate, conservation practitioners take heed — the climate change race is not only on, it is fixed, with the extinction finish line looming closest for the tropics,’ he wrote in Nature magazine.

Mora’s research has led him to the conclusion that all the species in any of the regions affected by adverse temperature rises have three stark choices.

Either they move to a cooler climate, adapt to the warmer climate or become extinct.

However, this is where conflict could arise amongst nations as desperate and starving people try to migrate en-mass north or south to escape the arid land they have come to live in.

‘We have these political boundaries that we cannot cross as easily. Like people in Mexico — if the climate was to go crazy there, it is not like they can move to the United States,’ said Mora to NBC News.
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Too Late To Stop: The 2047 date for the whole world is based on continually increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gases. If the world manages to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases, that would be pushed to as late as 2069, according to Mora.

Andrew Holbrooke / Corbis

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The Mora team found that by one measurement — ocean acidity — Earth has already crossed the threshold into an entirely new regime. That happened in about 2008, with every year since then more acidic than the old record, according to study co-author Abby Frazier.

Of the species studied, coral reefs will be the first stuck in a new climate — around 2030 — and are most vulnerable to climate change, Mora said.

Judith Curry, a Georgia Institute of Technology climate scientist who often clashes with mainstream scientists, said she found Mora’s approach to make more sense than the massive report that came out of the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said the research ‘may actually be presenting an overly rosy scenario when it comes to how close we are to passing the threshold for dangerous climate impacts.’

‘By some measures, we are already there,’ he said.
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Read more:
… Original report
… The timing of new climates
… ‘Uncomfortable’ climates to devastate cities within a decade, study says – NBC News.com
… Up to Five Billion Face ‘Entirely New Climate’ by 2050 | Climate Central
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Perspective is a funny thing. Earlier this week, I mentioned it when I wrote about what the reaction to Nelson Mandela’s passing means for our own legacies, and I find myself thinking of it again now. This time, though, I’m thinking of it for a different reason.

That reason can be put in one word: Pollution. But it’s not just any pollution that has me thinking about perspective; I didn’t see someone toss a wrapper on the ground and immediately have an existential crisis. The pollution news that got me thinking about perspective was a series of links and photos of the extreme air pollution present in China right now.

Shanghai has, apparently, been struggling with pollution levels for a while. I remember that while taking a class on northast Asian politics last spring, many of the current event articles brought in for extra credit were covering the increasingly bad situation in many Chinese cities.

And when I read a few days ago that the situation in Shanghai was so bad that it was 31 times higher than recommended levels, the children and elderly had been advised to stay indoors, cars were being ordered off the streets, and the levels of pollution were literally off the charts, I got to thinking.

What I thought about was how lucky I am to be attending a university in a relatively small town where it’s a very rare day when no blue sky is visible. Sure, Florida gets its hurricanes and daily afternoon thunderstorms in summer, but even those don’t take away blue sky for days at a time.

A great example of perspective on pollution comes from my roommate, Carrie, who is an international student here at Florida State. Earlier this semester, while chatting in the kitchen about how China is different from the U.S. and how they are also alike, she said something that really surprised me. She said that if I ever see a Chinese student staring at the blue sky, or taking a picture of it, it’s because they don’t get to see such blue skies with the regularity that we do.

I take it for granted though, that I can look up at the sky on any day of the week, even just look out my window, and see the usual: puffy white clouds on a background of light blue. For me to be shocked when told that is a rarity in other parts of the world shows how limited our perspectives can be.

Even if you’re an International Affairs major who has been to over half a dozen countries, some multiple times, as I have, it’s easy to forget that the way you have it isn’t the way everyone has it. It seems unthinkable, but what I’ve started calling “the desolation of smog” is an unfortunate reality in cities like Shanghai.

The photos tell a much better tale than I ever could, like the pictures of traffic cops wearing masks and white gloves while surrounded by a gray haze. Or the photos of Chinese citizens, also wearing masks, as they ride down an escalator while the silhouettes of high-rises can be seen in the background. Or, better still, the photo of a Chinese woman in a mask taking a selfie with the wall of pollution in the background.

So, amid finals week and other stresses, I think it’s more important than ever to try to keep some perspective. Whether it’s air pollution in Shanghai versus Tallahassee’s, or the light pollution on campus versus the light pollution at a campsite in Arizona, the different situations around the world are there, waiting to be looked at. How we get exposed to them is up to each of us, and Florida State tries to help with its equivalent of the Dead Poets Society’s stand-up-on-your-desk moment: Studying abroad.

We can’t all do that, as I learned last spring. But it’s still just one option among the many that are out there, and perspective is a useful tool for happiness building. So I will keep making an effort to stand on my desk, and urge each of my fellow Seminoles to do the same.

I can’t believe this video reached the 800,000 views mark! That is so fantastic!

A music video for "Full Metal Jacket" using the song "Paint It Black". This was made for editing practice and for fun. A tribute to Stanley Kubrick’s 1987 war film.

*For those asking me to upload a higher quality version of this video, I unfortunately made this a very long time ago on a different computer and therefore I no longer have access to the original files.*

Subscribe if you like this video. I have made other film tributes including ones for "The Shining" and "Evil Dead".

Cesar Harada , founder of MakerBay, with "Protei", a revolutionary shape-shifting sailing robot used to explore and protect the ocean with Open Source Technologies.
It took inventors Cesar Harada and Shawn Frayne just a couple of days to create their latest product – an inexpensive children’s building toy consisting of colourful plastic rods with magnetised ends.

Both men’s core expertise lies elsewhere: Harada designs flexible robotic boats that can be used on environmental missions; Frayne launched a micro-wind device company and went on to run Looking Glass, a start-up making 3D displays.

Their collaboration came about because both are part of MakerBay, the shared production space Harada set up a little more than a year ago in Yau Tong, where hobbyists and inventors alike can gather to tinker, build, invent – and learn from each other.

“The idea is a space like this where collaboration happens organically and we can invent something quickly. [Creating something] doesn’t have to be a very long journey. If you’re in the right place, with the right people and a lot of tools, and you build a network that supports these people, then the journey can be much faster,” Harada says.

Being a maker changes the perception of the world. You don’t feel limited. You feel that the world can be changedCESAR HARADA
“We wanted to make a toy for children without money, without space, and one that we can make very quickly. And so we made a drawing, found some straws in the kitchen and some magnets in the office and we put them together. We ordered more parts from Taobao next day and in 48 hours we had the prototype.”

The maker movement, which former Wired magazine editor Chris Anderson described as “the web generation creating physical things rather than just pixels on screens”, is a nascent one in Hong Kong.

Dim Sum Labs in Sheung Wan, the first hacker space in the city, has been joined only by MakerHive, a small co-working space in Kennedy Town, and Harada’s MakerBay, which occupies a 6,500 sq ft space in an industrial building and provides tools from screwdrivers and soldering irons to laser cutters and 3D printers.

Tools at MakerBay located in an industrial building in Yau Tong. Photo: David Wong
Tools at MakerBay located in an industrial building in Yau Tong. Photo: David Wong

But they bring together diverse talents. MakerBay has attracted hobbyists such as Andrew Pearce, a frequent traveller using his stay in Hong Kong to create his dream surfboard, as well as companies such as Frayne’s Looking Glass.

British ecologist and MakerBay member Andrew Pearce in the MakerBay workshop. Photo: David Wong
British ecologist and MakerBay member Andrew Pearce in the MakerBay workshop. Photo: David Wong

Originally based in Kwun Tong, the company moved to MakerBay shortly after it opened.

Alvin Lee Shiu-pong, an engineer at Looking Glass, says he and his colleagues find the co-working platform a great place for developing new products.

“We can meet a lot of like-minded people and share our ideas. The workshop is really convenient. Having our own tool lab would require a big investment; it’s much cheaper if we can share the tools.”

Lee says the “volumetric” displays they specialise in would be useful for the medical world and beyond.

“Instead of dissecting bodies or looking at 2D images from books, students can use a volumetric display to learn about human bodies,” he says, gesturing towards a transparent brick inked with a detailed 3D display of the structures inside a skull.

“All we need is to process the 3D information we’ve obtained [to form the display] and assign colours according to the different densities identified – a higher density would indicate bone and lower ones can be blood, flesh or tendon,” he explains.

The same process could be applied to learn about the structures of insects or even micro-organisms, adds Lee, whose team is refining the next big thing from Looking Glass – a cube which can display LED sequences based on code that a user has written.

British ecologistPearce shares his enthusiasm for the hacker space. Tired of paying hefty airline charges to ship his surfboards and of buying boards that don’t meet his preferences, he decided to make his own. He has been making good use of the tools at MakerBay and picking up skills at its workshops to experiment with different materials and methods of making surfboards.

“It’s just a nice way of learning things,” says Pearce. “It’s the first time I tried to make something. Here, I’ve figured out how to make designs in 3D and make them with the laser cutter. I’ve done an induction workshop on woodworking, too. And if I managed somehow to get this new technique of building down then I guess it can be a saleable idea.

“I do have a mini Simmons [surfboard] but I can’t take it with me because of all the charges for the airline. You’ve got this limit on the MTR as well, which is even smaller – you can’t even take something as high as yourself. That’s why I have to design something that slots together, which is difficult.”

L3D Cube.
L3D Cube.

Pearce might have picked up a few ideas at the Maker Faire Hong Kong in November, when veteran model maker Chung King-yang showed a foldable canoe made from plastic foam and epoxy resin.

The two-day event, which drew entries from more than 300 individual makers and schools, was organised by Dr Choy Sze-tsan.

An assistant professor in the school of design at Polytechnic University, Choy previously sponsored a mini event run by the Hong Kong Makers’ Club. But after three years, he decided it was time to turn the faire into a bigger event and involve more schools.

Harada presented his building toy at the event and the positive feedback has encouraged him to put it on the market soon. As might be expected, Dim Sum Labs was also present and ran soldering workshops.

Hong Kong traditionally is more service- and finance-oriented. People here are less about making things. They’re more about transactionsJASON HSU
Visitors got the chance to test-drive underwater robots made by German Swiss International School, get their hands on different maker items and, more importantly, be inspired.

While conventional fairs tend to be places to sell things, Maker Faires are all about nurturing creativity and sharing of knowledge, Choy says.

At its heart, design covers the broader intention to identify problems and come up with solutions to improve our world, which has a lot to do with the maker culture, he adds; it’s not simply about enhancing aesthetics.

So although some people may consider items featured at the show to be useless stuff, the ideas may be the genesis of something far bigger.

“A successful invention comes not overnight, but after tonnes of experimentations. At the Maker Faire, people can see so many different possibilities of solving problems creatively, it’s impossible for them not to get inspired,” Choy says.

“The maker culture is a great catalyst for people to reconnect back to our physical world and learn through failures and trial and error. Through making and the uncertainties that arise from the process, we venture into the unknown. And if there’re glitches, it’s OK because they keep us trying even harder.”

Harada agrees: “Everyone in their heart has the desire to do something exciting with their life and if you only work on a computer, there’re some limitations. But once you start to make something, you can build an object or change the environment.

“Being a maker changes the perception of the world. You don’t feel limited. You feel that the world can be changed and that’s true for everything from objects to buildings to politics.”

Some enthusiasts view the maker movement as holding the seeds to a third industrial revolution. Jason Hsu Yu-jen, founder of Taiwan’s MakerBar, goes so far as to say that our future may lie in the maker culture.Navigating a power drill kart made by Wheel Thing Makers.
Navigating a power drill kart made by Wheel Thing Makers.

“MakerBar is more than just a co-working space. It has evolved to become a global platform,” says Hsu, who was in Hong Kong last month to speak at a symposium organised by the Hong Kong Federation of Design Associations.

“Most people think about makers as a business model. That’s wrong. The maker culture is not just about [using] 3D printing or laser cutters. [Being a] maker is a mindset. It’s a way to solve problems creatively.

“What you see as the maker movement today is what internet or software was back in the early ’80s when Steve Jobs first launched the Macintosh personal computers. In the future, because of de-monetisation and democratisation of technology, the cost for technology would be almost free and you need to use your service to make money, not with the machine.

“The maker culture is important for its social engineering effect. It could be a new tool to change society, especially in the developing world. In the countryside or farm communities in remote China, makers could be used as a hub to change villagers’ life. It will change villagers’ life the way e-commerce will change China. That’s my vision.”

However, compared to the mushrooming maker spaces in Taiwan and Shenzhen, the movement in Hong Kong clearly has a long way to go.

This lag is because “Hong Kong traditionally is more service- and finance-oriented. People here are less about making things. They’re more about transactions,” Hsu says.

The perception of making as a non-profit activity is certainly a factor in Hongkongers’ lack of involvement, Choy concedes. “But in fact, besides cultural and intellectual elements, there can be economic value,” he says. “Take Japan’s Maywa Denki, for instance. Their quirky musical inventions which they perform popular shows with are their source of income.”

MakerBay’s Harada says another reason why the maker culture has been so slow to develop in the city is because “the mentality of Hong Kong has been educated too much towards competition and not towards collaboration”.

“They have been trying more to take advantage of each other instead of helping each other. This has to change,” he says.

“In Silicon Valley this culture of maker space, sharing and excellent innovation has been around for 15 years and this is why Silicon Valley is Silicon Valley. People young and old have to open their minds, be willing to experiment and share the resources instead of keeping things to themselves.”