90 LETTER FROM WASHINGTON FEBRUARY 17 I N hIS speech before the Foreign Policy Association last night, the Secretary of State did not give an altogether clear answer to the ques- tIon of whether we are determined to hold Quemoy and the Matsus at all costs. He dId, however, say that the administration has not yielded to the suggestion to abandon them. This is about what everyone had expected hIm to say, and this is about what every- one, includIng people who think it would be folly to be drawn into a war over these indefensible outposts, would have wished him to say, once he had decided to discuss the matter at all. He mIght have said nothing about Quemoy and the lVlatsus, in which case the situa- tion would be precisely what it is now, but if he had said either much mOl e or much less than he did, he would have invited a Communist attack on the IS- lands. HIS one alternatIve might have been an attempt at a truly candid ex- position of this vexed situation and the way it is being dealt with here. Had he chosen that alternative, he would certainly have confused the Commu- nists. He might also have confused his listeners, and even himself. It is at this moment a thoroughly mixed-up situation, and one reason Mr. Dulles could not have made a categorical statement, even if he had been so undiplomatic as to wish to do so, is that the administration itself has not settled upon a course. Or, at least, that is the appearance of things here at this juncture. One gets the impression that the only orders given the Seventh Fleet in regard to Quemoy and the Matsus are orders to check with Washington before doing anything drastic. One gets the further impression that the President is one member of the administration who is determined not to go to war over the offshore islands if he can find any possible way of avoiding it. His area of choice is being narrowed, however, not only by the Chinese CommunIsts, who have the primary power of deci- sion at this stage, but by the pressures on him here. There IS, and for some time has been, a split in the administra- tion that can be roughly described by saying that on the one hand there is a White House faction favoring a min- imum of commitment in the Far East and a Pentagon-Capitol Hill faction favoring a maximum of commItment. This may do some injustice to the true delicacy of the situation, but by and large it is recognized that the Presi- dent wants out and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Senator Knowland want in. It may turn out that these differing points of view will have no bearing on what happens in the Formosa Strait in the coming weeks, for there is little doubt that If the Communists should launch an attack on Quemoy and the Matsus that was clearly preparatory for their promised assault on Formosa, we would be at war The differing points Df view would have extreme relevancy, though, in the event of an attack that was judged by our Intelligence people to be an operation of limited scope, in- tended to assure Peiping's security and not to destroy Formosa's. They would also be relevant in the event of a Com- munist offer to bargain for control of the offshore islands in return for a prom- ise to abstaIn from an armed attack on -- ---- ? - . .,.'" ^, '1>>- Formosa and the Pescadores That the President is open to such a proposition was shown in his call for a negotiated cease-fire, which quite obviously could not be arranged unless there was a sur- render of the islands within artillery range of the mainland Senator Know- land and Admiral Radford are opposed to any such deal. The feeling here is that unless PeI- ping resolves the whole issue by making good on its threats to clobber the off- shore islands at an early date, this con- flict wi!] continue but will be settled before too long in a fairly clear-cut victory for the President. It is point- ed out that although he does not wield the power of his office as forcefully as some of his predecessors, in this struggle he has won every contest so far. If Admiral Radford, who is be- coming almost wistful in his repeated suggestion of a blockade of China, had '. ., \ \", .... \ '> " ----- .-..-.'" . , h ... ',' .... , ' V" *' *" 4 . "'" , t i * <> ri' ((. . . and the very near future will also see a marked upturn in carloadings."