Tryon: Getting voters to 'yes' on tax

Published: Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 1:00 a.m.

Last Modified: Friday, June 21, 2013 at 4:50 p.m.

Proponents of a sales tax increase --rejected by 61 percent of voters in Manatee County -- are reeling.

And, in light of the results of last week's referendum, they are trying to figure out how in the future they can help pay doctors, hospitals and mental-health facilities that treat low-income residents without insurance.

Good luck with that.

Manatee County has become increasingly tax-averse which, I fear, has the potential to threaten the quality of life. Excessive taxation hinders economic growth, but successful communities make adequate investments in health care, schools and transportation.

But just because a tax proposal is rejected once, doesn't mean it's dead forever.

Local history and my Theory of Thirds in Tax Referendums suggest it's possible to eventually resurrect tax initiatives that get killed at the polls.

Sometimes ballot initiatives fail once and seem forever doomed, even if the vote was close -- for example, a 2004 proposal for a sales tax in Manatee to purchase environmentally sensitive lands hasn't been mentioned since it was narrowly defeated.

However, in May 2002, 61 percent of Manatee voters approved a one-half cent sales tax for school construction and renovation -- four years after voters rejected a 1 percent sales tax.

The differences in the ballot items went beyond the amount: The 1998 initiative called for the school district to share the revenue with the county and cities, which had irresponsibly padded their funding wish lists.

In 2002, population growth was clearly beginning to strain the school district's ability to adequately provide classrooms -- and, just as important, the School Board and then-Superintendent Dan Nolan were in good standing with the public.

The half-cent sales tax was approved for 15 years, so it expires in 2017. Although the referendum that created the tax was conducted in a different political era -- before the great recession, and prior to the ascent of the tea party in Manatee -- its passage provides a reminder that proposals can be salvaged, if properly repackaged and clearly presented.

Sarasota County has had similar experiences. In July 2000, a special 1-mill property tax for public schools was rejected by two-thirds of those casting ballots. The proposal was poorly framed and went to voters after a short-term, unpopular superintendent left town.

Two years later, the same tax was proposed in a March referendum -- and it was endorsed by 63 percent of the voters. That 1-mill tax was subsequently supported by 61 percent of voters in 2006 and by 66 percent in 2010.

Another example: A 1994 proposal to levy a 1 percent sales tax in Sarasota County -- made without adequate preparation or a detailed plan -- was rejected by a 2-to-1 ratio.

Three years later, a broad coalition of community leaders established a methodical plan for both spending the tax revenue and monitoring expenditures. As a result, the margin was almost reversed, with 61 percent voting in favor; in 2007, 66 percent of voters supported a 10-year extension of the tax.

A pair of patterns has emerged from these local tax referendums:

• Outcomes can be reversed.

• Margins of 2-to-1, whether in favor or in opposition, have been common.

There have been exceptions, of course, but the frequency of results in the 2-to-1 range has led me to my Theory of Thirds in Tax Referendums.

The basic idea is this: In virtually every referendum when a tax is at stake, one-third of the voters are highly likely to vote "no" and the same number will vote "yes."

That means most tax referendums are decided by a generally undecided one-third of the electorate, which will lean in favor or opposition depending upon the circumstances -- including the timing of the election, the quality of the presentation and the clarity of the proposal.

As Herald-Tribune editorials have stated, the proposal for a one-half percent sales tax for indigent care in Manatee was ill-timed, poorly presented and unnecessarily complicated.

Instead of waiting until the end of this year to learn whether Florida expands Medicaid eligibility, which would mitigate the indigent-care challenge in Manatee and statewide but not solve it, the County Commission pushed ahead with a rare special election in June.

Instead of presenting a clear question and focusing on the need for, and benefits of, a sales tax, the county and a political committee focused on a complex plan emphasizing property-tax relief.

The other ballot initiative in Manatee -- a property-tax exemption for new or expanding businesses that create jobs -- was endorsed by 52 percent of voters.

I have no doubt that the presence of the sales tax question on the ballot depressed support for the business exemption. (The exemption was approved by nearly two-thirds of Sarasota County voters three years ago.)

But it seems clear that the proponents of the property tax exemption gained a majority by appealing to enough voters in the middle one-third. Achieving that task was made possible by the formulation of a clear question and the execution of a tightly focused campaign that emphasized the connection between tax exemptions and job creation.

Unless the County Commission refuses to help finance uncompensated indigent care once a trust fund expires in 2015, the sales-tax question is likely to be posed again. History suggests that a repeat would have a chance to gain passage -- depending upon how the question is asked.

<p>Proponents of a sales tax increase --rejected by 61 percent of voters in Manatee County -- are reeling.</p><p>And, in light of the results of last week's referendum, they are trying to figure out how in the future they can help pay doctors, hospitals and mental-health facilities that treat low-income residents without insurance.</p><p>Good luck with that.</p><p>Manatee County has become increasingly tax-averse which, I fear, has the potential to threaten the quality of life. Excessive taxation hinders economic growth, but successful communities make adequate investments in health care, schools and transportation.</p><p>But just because a tax proposal is rejected once, doesn't mean it's dead forever.</p><p>Local history and my Theory of Thirds in Tax Referendums suggest it's possible to eventually resurrect tax initiatives that get killed at the polls.</p><p>Sometimes ballot initiatives fail once and seem forever doomed, even if the vote was close -- for example, a 2004 proposal for a sales tax in Manatee to purchase environmentally sensitive lands hasn't been mentioned since it was narrowly defeated.</p><p>However, in May 2002, 61 percent of Manatee voters approved a one-half cent sales tax for school construction and renovation -- four years after voters rejected a 1 percent sales tax.</p><p>The differences in the ballot items went beyond the amount: The 1998 initiative called for the school district to share the revenue with the county and cities, which had irresponsibly padded their funding wish lists.</p><p>In 2002, population growth was clearly beginning to strain the school district's ability to adequately provide classrooms -- and, just as important, the School Board and then-Superintendent Dan Nolan were in good standing with the public.</p><p>The half-cent sales tax was approved for 15 years, so it expires in 2017. Although the referendum that created the tax was conducted in a different political era -- before the great recession, and prior to the ascent of the tea party in Manatee -- its passage provides a reminder that proposals can be salvaged, if properly repackaged and clearly presented.</p><p>Sarasota County has had similar experiences. In July 2000, a special 1-mill property tax for public schools was rejected by two-thirds of those casting ballots. The proposal was poorly framed and went to voters after a short-term, unpopular superintendent left town.</p><p>Two years later, the same tax was proposed in a March referendum -- and it was endorsed by 63 percent of the voters. That 1-mill tax was subsequently supported by 61 percent of voters in 2006 and by 66 percent in 2010.</p><p>Another example: A 1994 proposal to levy a 1 percent sales tax in Sarasota County -- made without adequate preparation or a detailed plan -- was rejected by a 2-to-1 ratio.</p><p>Three years later, a broad coalition of community leaders established a methodical plan for both spending the tax revenue and monitoring expenditures. As a result, the margin was almost reversed, with 61 percent voting in favor; in 2007, 66 percent of voters supported a 10-year extension of the tax.</p><p>A pair of patterns has emerged from these local tax referendums:</p><p>• Outcomes can be reversed.</p><p>• Margins of 2-to-1, whether in favor or in opposition, have been common.</p><p>There have been exceptions, of course, but the frequency of results in the 2-to-1 range has led me to my Theory of Thirds in Tax Referendums.</p><p>The basic idea is this: In virtually every referendum when a tax is at stake, one-third of the voters are highly likely to vote "no" and the same number will vote "yes."</p><p>That means most tax referendums are decided by a generally undecided one-third of the electorate, which will lean in favor or opposition depending upon the circumstances -- including the timing of the election, the quality of the presentation and the clarity of the proposal.</p><p>As Herald-Tribune editorials have stated, the proposal for a one-half percent sales tax for indigent care in Manatee was ill-timed, poorly presented and unnecessarily complicated.</p><p>Instead of waiting until the end of this year to learn whether Florida expands Medicaid eligibility, which would mitigate the indigent-care challenge in Manatee and statewide but not solve it, the County Commission pushed ahead with a rare special election in June.</p><p>Instead of presenting a clear question and focusing on the need for, and benefits of, a sales tax, the county and a political committee focused on a complex plan emphasizing property-tax relief.</p><p>The other ballot initiative in Manatee -- a property-tax exemption for new or expanding businesses that create jobs -- was endorsed by 52 percent of voters.</p><p>I have no doubt that the presence of the sales tax question on the ballot depressed support for the business exemption. (The exemption was approved by nearly two-thirds of Sarasota County voters three years ago.)</p><p>But it seems clear that the proponents of the property tax exemption gained a majority by appealing to enough voters in the middle one-third. Achieving that task was made possible by the formulation of a clear question and the execution of a tightly focused campaign that emphasized the connection between tax exemptions and job creation.</p><p>Unless the County Commission refuses to help finance uncompensated indigent care once a trust fund expires in 2015, the sales-tax question is likely to be posed again. History suggests that a repeat would have a chance to gain passage -- depending upon how the question is asked.</p><p>Tom Tryon is opinion editor. Tom.Tryon@heraldtribune.com.</p>