As doctors and psychiatrists, we have seen the devastating effects of benefit reform on our patients

May wants us to remember her for her domestic policy, not Brexit

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The local elections held little positive news for the Conservative Party. With over 1,300 councillors unseated, amid a nationwide rout, optimism was in short supply. Government ministers were reduced to noting that Labour had also suffered losses, as though a general rejection of the main parties was somehow reassuring.

One of the rare bright spots for the Tories was in Walsall, where they regained majority control of the borough for the first time since 2011. It was one of only three authorities the Conservatives gained, set against a thumping 47 where they lost control.

So what was their secret? How come in Walsall, where 68 per cent of people voted Leave, the local branch of a party which jaw-droppingly is still led by Theresa May managed to avoid the fate suffered by so many Tories elsewhere?

‘We have made ourselves clear that we are not going to have anything to do with the European elections at all’

Mike Bird, local Conservative leader in Walsall

The key to victory

It isn’t something in the water. Nor did they have extra Weetabix on polling day (as far as I know).

They found a formula superior to the official message that these were elections on local, not national issues. Even the widespread decision by Tory canvassers to seek to neutralise dislike of May by simply agreeing with voters about her doesn’t explain it. Both arguments worked somewhat – without them, the losses would have been even worse – but Walsall did something extra.

Councillor Mike Bird, the local Conservative leader, is clear: “I think it was our attitude towards Brexit. In Walsall we have made ourselves clear that we are not going to have anything to do with the European elections at all.”

To survive the backlash against the Prime Minister’s broken promises and Brexit delay, Walsall Tories effectively joined the popular revolt.

Theresa May has called for Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to put their differences aside and agree a Brexit deal. (Photo by Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images)

Local campaigners are on strike

They share their constituents’ frustrations about the MEP elections, and to demonstrate it they have opted to go on strike.

‘Some associations have opted privately to withdraw funding and campaign support. More now intend to join them’

That is a message to their party: the volunteers on whom it relies will not work for something they oppose. But it was also an asset on the doorstep, demonstrating active agreement rather than just nodding and hoping that angry voters wouldn’t take May’s failure out on them. It is a remarkable situation in which the key to electoral success is vocal disagreement with your own party leader.

This activist strike is growing. Before the locals, Derbyshire County Councillors voted not to campaign in the European elections, as did Redditch Conservative Association. Announcing the decision, Cllr Juliet Brunner, the Redditch Chair, said: “These elections should not be happening, and we cannot in good conscience formally campaign in these elections.”

It has not gone unnoticed that the Conservatives gained North East Derbyshire council, and gained a seat in Redditch. Other associations had opted privately to withdraw funding and campaign support for the same reasons. More now intend to join them.

Beyond the formal party structures, many individual members have independently resolved to simply stay at home. Given that somewhere between 60 and 70 per cent of them voted Leave, and most of the remainder agree that the referendum result ought to be implemented, it’s unsurprising that they are not willing to pound the streets and knock on doors in the service of a Party leader who has broken her promises to them and to the nation.

Tories plan to vote for the Brexit party

That activist strike is the least of the Conservative Party’s worries. ConservativeHome’s surveys of Party members have found that an outright majority intend to vote for the Brexit Party when the European election takes place. That is remarkable – alienating your own membership to the point at which most of those surveyed won’t merely abstain but will vote for a rival.

Expressing that decision publicly is grounds for expulsion from the Conservative Party, hence members are only willing to reveal it anonymously. The internal atmosphere is largely an embarrassed silence; neither rebellious members nor the leadership really want to have a clash in which people are thrown out. Everyone just keeps schtum instead, like an intensely awkward dinner party where everybody knows a scandalous truth about the hosts which the guests are too polite to mention.

If Tory members are so annoyed that they refuse to campaign and in many cases intend to vote for the Brexit Party, it’s easy to imagine the mood among the voter base, many of whom already feel their loyalty has been tried beyond its breaking point.

People dislike broken promises, and, as 2017 showed, they hate being forced to vote unnecessarily. These absurd European elections combine both offences against the electorate.

Farage’s anti-establishment enterprise is seizing this opportunity, and is polling in joint first place mere weeks after it was founded. That poll success, and the local election collapse last week, leads him to believe he has a sizeable ex-Tory vote in the bag. Now he intends to persuade frustrated Labour voters to join him in punishing their party for its Brexit failures, too.

As doctors and psychiatrists, we have seen the devastating effects of benefit reform on our patients

May wants us to remember her for her domestic policy, not Brexit

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