1. (U) This is an action cable, see para
7. 2. (C) Summary: GNZ anticipates that Commodore
Bainimarama will execute his plan to remove members of the
government of Fiji on December 4 regardless of what he hears
from foreign critics. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston
Peters will meet with Bainimarama on November 25. While
Peters will deliver strongly worded points (reftel), MFAT
anticipates that Bainimarama will refuse to listen and that
he will remain resolute in carrying out his plan. GNZ will
adjust what sanctions it will impose depending on how the
coup unfolds, but anticipates strong sanctions even if there
is an "administrative coup." MFAT sees that the situation in
Tonga is stabilizing -- for the moment -- and continues to
develop an assistance package and timetable for withdrawal
of defense and police forces.

Grim on what lies next in
Fiji

------------------------------

3. (C) Following a
briefing on Fiji and Tonga to the diplomatic corps, Heather
Riddell, Director, Pacific Division, New Zealand's Ministry
of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) offered a supplemental
brief to Embassy Wellington officers. On the subject of
Fiji, MFAT has concluded that on December 4, Commodore
Bainimarama will execute his plans for a coup, mindful of
the fact that events may move more quickly if sedition
charges are laid against Bainimarama. MFAT is grappling with
what technically would constitute a coup, but would view any
change prompted by military pressure as at least an
"administrative coup" -- with sanctions likely to come close
those involving a full coup.

4. (C) Tomorrow, November
25, New Zealand Foreign Minister is scheduled to meet
Bainimarama one-on-one at his office, although MFAT doubts
that the Commodore will be in a listening mode. The GNZ
assesses that Bainimarama is resolute on carrying out his
plan. MFAT anticipates providing Embassy Wellington with a
download of the Peters meeting as soon as possible.

5.
(C) If a coup takes place, GNZ anticipates as one worst case
scenario that New Zealand would receive a request from PM
Qarase for joint Aussie-Kiwi military assistance. "This is
not a scenario we would relish," said Riddell, "as we would
not necessarily prevail." MFAT is mindful that its military
is now spread thin, and Riddell said New Zealand would
resist the call for assistance. Another worst case scenario
would see the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF)
fragmenting and turning on itself, which could turn violent.

But somewhat optimistic on Tonga

--------------------------------

6. (C) Following the
King of Tonga's speech from the throne on November 23, in
which he requested from Parliament a proposal on reform
including a timetable, MFAT's view is that the situation in
Tonga is stabilizing. NZAID continues to develop a package
of assistance. GNZ is anticipating to withdrawal defense and
police forces in the near term, but still does not have a
timetable. Associate Minister for Pacific Island Affairs
Winnie Laban indicated to DCM the evening before that she is
not optimistic about Tonga, anticipating that it will be
difficult to develop the kind of development program that
will enable Tonga to become economically sustainable.

Action Request: UN Resolution

-----------------------------

7. (C) MFAT understands
that EAP/ANP Director Steve McGann and New Zealand Embassy
Deputy Chief of Mission Ian Hill have discussed a possible
UN resolution. MFAT would welcome more information about
that discussion, and believes that a UN resolution would
make it easier for the British to change their travel
advisory for Fiji.

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