Futures Chart of the Day Archive

dx-daily-chartApril 23 - The US dollar index futures contract traded on the ICE exchange appears to have broken out to the upside.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis is BearishApril 23 - Gold futures couldn't find a way to rally in the midst of favorable fundamental worries (trade war concerns and a stock market correction). The path of least resistance is likely lower.

Crude oil fundamentalsMarch 8, 2018 - Fundamental analysis is difficult to apply to commodity markets in real time. Anybody trading according to crude oil market fundamentals might have bought the highs and sold the lows. The market has been proactive in pricing in fundamental changes.

Crude oil futures Technical AnalysisMarch 5, 2018 - Crude oil futures have been trading in an uptrend channel in recent years. We expect this to continue. Thus, the high-s could be seen again, followed by the low-s.

Crude Oil COT ChartMarch 5, 2018 - Crude oil futures traders are massively long the market. This doesn't guarantee an immediate sell-off, but it creates a substantial headwind and will accelerate losses if they occur.

Weekly E-mini S&P 500 FuturesFebruary 28, 2018 - The E-mini S&P 500 broke out of a multi-year trading channel in January, only to fall back into the technical pattern in February. The size and velocity of the drop was likely due to the fact that it started at prices that shouldn't have been seen in a more "normal" market.

CBOE VIX HistoryFebruary 28, 2018 - The VIX tends to move lower slowly and consistently, but move higher dramatically and erratically. Being short volatility works nearly all of the time, but when it doesn't work it can quickly wipe out a trading account.

Daily E-mini S&P 500 FuturesFebruary 28th, 2018 - While most argued the stock market was broken in early February, we argue it was just as "broken" in January. Stock index futures were forced to unsustainable prices, and gravity eventually took hold.

Natural Gas Futures Feb 2018February 16 - Natural gas prices have fallen sharply from early 2018 highs; although oscillators are classified as oversold they will likely become more so before significant buyers will step in. Considering trendline support dating back to 2015 and the expectation of a pack of sell stop loss orders beneath the December low, it seems probable natural gas futures will make their way into the .40s. Nevertheless, sharp support lies near .41 which we believe will be critical and has a high probability of supporting a price reversal.

Natural Gas COT Report 2018February 16 - Our friends at MRCI Inc. (Moore Research Center, Incorporated) compile seasonal stats on the commodity markets for a living. Their data dating back 27 years suggests that natural gas futures have been prone to posting some sort of market low in late February to early March. With current futures prices in the doldrums, this appears to be a particularly interesting pattern. A looming seasonal bottom, in combination with cheap prices and nearby technical support, could offer the bulls an opportunity for relatively comfortable speculation.

T-Bond Futures ChartFebruary 16 - Treasuries are testing trendline support (again). This pattern is becoming painful for the bulls (speaking from experience). That said, we've noticed the latest COT report suggests speculators are holding one of the largest net short positions in the 10-year note seen in over a decade. We have to wonder, is there anybody left to sell?

E-mini S&P 500 Futures ChartThose that follow Fibonacci retracement theory will tell you that the S&P has retraced roughly 60% of its initial drop. Specifically, the market closed below 2750ish which is the 62% Fib retracement resistance. As mentioned above, several green bars doesn't necessarily make a bull market. There is still plenty of room for volatility, bullish trades should be taking off risk.

Crude Oil Hedge Fund Blow Up?November 8, 2017 - Crude oil futures jumped and then collapsed over 128.50 per barrel in an hour on what was otherwise low volatility trading. It feels like an account blow-up!

US Dollar Index Futures vs PowerShares Commodity FundSeptember 28, 2017 - The commodity markets have gotten a boost from a declining dollar but if the currency market turns the corner, the opposite will occur.

Dollar Index Futures Weekly ChartSeptember 28 - The US dollar index futures contract traded on the ICE exchange has finally shown signs of life. A weekly chart reveals the trendline is intact.

Copper Futures Weekly ViewSeptember 21, 2017 - The weekly copper chart shows the "big picture". Although the recent pullback has been eye-opening, it is clear that there could be further selling.

Dollar Index Futures Bottoming?September 21, 2017 - The US dollar index traded on the ICE futures exchange has been under pressure all year. However, currency market sentiment can change quickly and we suspect the dollar will find buyers again by the end of the year.

Copper Futures COT ReportSeptember 21, 2017 - Copper futures miraculously rallied above .00 but the lack of fundamentals and help from a weaker dollar has left air pockets. A return to .50 is not out of the question as overly long speculators liquidate positions.

WTI Crude Oil Futures ChartSeptember 8, 2017 - WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX division of the CME Group has gotten a hurricane boost, but it probably won't last. The chart and seasonals are working against it.

Crude Oil Futures MRCI SeasonalitySeptember 8, 2017 - December crude oil futures have a strong tendency to trade weaker from early September through early November. Further, MRCI suggests a sell signal on September 8th through the 21st has been a high probability trade over the last 15 years.

Dollar index futures bottoming?September 8, 2017 - The US dollar has been in the dumps, despite what many believed would be the case coming into 2017. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine the dollar getting weaker from these levels.

US Dollar Futures on Ice ExchangeAugust 1, 2017 - The dollar index has been in perpetual free fall but we are nearing areas that have acted as reversal points historically. We could be closer to a dollar bottom than many think. If so, it will put downside pressure on commodities such as copper and crude oil.

Copper Futures MarketAugust 1, 2019 - Copper futures are on a tear but the bulls could soon shed a tear. The market is technically overbought and resistance is looming. Unfortunately, the copper options market is illiquid so buying cheap puts might be the best way to play it.

Crude oil speculators too long?August 1, 2017 - Crude oil speculators have had a bad habit of going long on peaks and liquidating on the trough. The might be getting too long again, perhaps the buying will dry up soon.

Crude Oil Futures Toppy?August 1, 2017 - Crude oil futures have been soaring in recent weeks but the rally might soon sour. Oil hasn't been able to sustain a trend thus far in 2017 and overhead resistance will work against the bullish oil speculators.

Gold Futures Technical AnalysisJuly 14, 2017 - Gold prices have held support near 128,205 and are making their way toward resistance at 128,248. If this level breaks, 128,300 is in play again.

Gold Futures and US Dollar CorrelationJuly 14 2017 - The US dollar and gold futures have almost always been negatively correlated. Yet, they have recently been positively correlated. This can't last.

Gold Futures Technical AnalysisJuly 14 - Gold prices have held support near 128,205 and are making their way toward resistance at 128,248. If this level breaks, 128,300 is in play again.

Copper Daily Futures ChartJuly 4 - The path of least resistance is likely lower for copper futures. .50 could be in the cards.

Large Speculators in Oil have been WrongJuly 4, 2017 - Large speculators in crude oil have been painfully wrong this year. They have been getting longer into tops and liquidating longs into bottoms.

Crude Oil Futures WhipsawJuly 4 - Crude oil futures have managed to whipsaw both the bulls and the bears. Ironically, the smart money has been habitually on the wrong foot. Prices should make their way up to the / area but will likely reverse from there.

Soy Meal Covered Call StrategyJune 27, 2017 - Covered call strategies are popular among stock traders but perhaps they should be with futures traders. It is often possible to buy a futures contract and sell a close-to-the-money call with attractive odds and profit potential.

Soybean Meal Futures COT ChartJune 27, 2017 - Speculators typically come into July with a net long position in soy meal futures. Accordingly, the price of meal generally relaxes as they liquidate. This year specs are coming into July with a neutral to bearish position. Will prices rise?

Canadian Dollar FuturesJune 9, 2017 - Speculators are holding a massive net short position betting against the Canadian Dollar. However, sometimes when everyone thinks a market will go one way, it goes the other. Can the loonie breakout to the upside?

Cattle Futures ChartJune 9, 2017 - Cattle futures speculators are the longest they have been in years, or perhaps ever. It is unlikely the market will be able to find enough buyers to keep the bull trend intact.

August Soybean Futures Covered Call StrategyMay 31, 2017 - Soybean futures tend to see a seasonal bump and are oversold. It might make sense to establish a bullish, but well-hedged position.

Time to sell call options on hog futures?May 31, 2017 - Lean hog futures have had an impressive run, but they could be running out of steam. Call options seemed overpriced. *Unlimited risk in option selling.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Daily ChartMay 5, 2017 - WTI Crude oil futures appear to be putting in a key reversal, but we suspect another round of selling could bring the June futures contract closer to per barrel.

COT Report says Crude OIl Futures Specs are LongMay 5, 2017 - Crude oil futures speculators have been aggressively and relentlessly long WTI oil futures. Although they have liquidated part of their holdings, they likely aren't done.

Lean Hog Futures Seasonal TendencyApril 20, 2017 - Lean hog futures have struggled in recent weeks but according to seasonal data by MRCI, they tend to find some sort of support in mid-to-late-April.

Gold futures facing technical resistanceApril 12, 2017 - Gold futures have been roaring higher but seasonal support is drying up and technical resistance is looming. Gold will likely struggle to break the 128,290/128,300 area.

July Soybean Futures Seasonal PatternApril 5, 2017 - July soybean meal futures traded on the CBOT division of the CME group generally move higher throughout the spring.

May CBOT Corn FuturesMarch 28, 2017 - Corn futures haven't been in favor despite weakening in the US dollar. However, the market hasn't traded under .40 for any sustainable amount of time in years. Perhaps the bulls should be looking for opportunities.

July CBOT Wheat FuturesMarch 28, 2017 - The wheat futures traded on the CBOT division of the CME Group have been in a slump, but one has to wonder if there is anyone left to sell. We see support looming on the chart.

Euro Currency Futures 15 Year Seasonal PatternMarch 23, 2017 - According to MRCI, the euro currency futures market tends to move higher in March and April.

Euro Currency Futures COT ReportMarch 23, 2017 - According to the CFTC's COT Report, speculators have unwound their massive short position and are currently relatively neutral.

Daily Chart of Euro Currency FuturesMarch 23, 2017 - The daily chart corroborates the conclusions found on the weekly chart of the euro currency futures contract; the euro could be finding a bottom.

Weekly Euro Futures ChartMarch 23, 2017 - Euro currency futures fell 25% in 2014/2015 but has since flat-lined. We suspect the European currency is putting in some sort of long-term base.

Crude Oil Futures ChartMarch 9, 2017 - Crude oil futures have broken support and could be headed for the long-term trendline. If so, .51 would be in play. If fundamentals continue to erode, isn't out of the question.

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ReportMarch 9, 2017 - Crude oil futures have taken a nasty fall in recent days but the selling probably isn't over. Ahead of this drop speculators were holding one of the largest net long positions EVER!

ES Futures Price to Earnings RatioMarch 7, 2017 - The bull run has been miraculous but either earnings need to catch up with the market or the market will have to come down to meet earnings.

Fed Funds Futures ContractsMarch 7, 2017 - The Federal Reserve will meet next week to set the new Fed Funds interest rate. The markets are already pricing in at least two and as many as four rate hikes by the December meeting.

Natural Gas Seasonal Chart by MRCIFebruary 16, 2017 - According to MRCI, Moore Research Center Inc., natural gas futures have a strong tendency to bottom in late-February to early-March.

Natural Gas Commitment of Traders ReportFebruary 16, 2017 - The CFTC's COT report offers traders insight on who is long what in regards to the commodity markets. According to the Commitments of Traders Report, large speculators are relatively neutral in natural gas futures.

Natural Gas Futures Technical AnalysisFebruary 16, 2017 - Natural gas futures are at a crossroads. Trendline support is near, but a price gap and recent lows could act as a magnet for prices.

Copper Futures Commitments of Traders ReportFebruary 10, 2017 - Copper futures speculators are holding historically large net long positions in the copper futures market according to the latest COT report issued by the CFTC.

Copper Futures Technically OverboughtFebruary 10, 2017 - Copper futures are on a tear on news of a labor strike in the largest producing mine in the world. However, the market might be overpricing the impact. Is this a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trade?

T-Note Commitments of Traders ReportFebruary 2, 2017 - Treasury speculators are holding one of the largest net short positions in history. Should they decide to unwind the bearish position, we could see a massive rally in interest rate securities (decline in yields).

10-Year Note Seasonal PatternFebruary 2, 2017 - According to MRCI (Moore Research Inc) the 10-year note futures contract has had a tendency to rally from February through May. This chart is based on 30 years worth of price data.

TLT Treasury ETF ChartFeb. 1, 2017 - We often look at the TLT chart for long-term charting of the Treasury markets (because futures contracts expire, charting the big picture can be challenging). According to our analysis, bonds and notes could be putting in a double bottom.

Buy Crude Oil StranglesJanuary 20, 2017 - Aggressive speculators might be interested in buying option strangles. In short, this involves buying a call option and a put option in the same expiration month. Because more options than not expire worthless, it is generally a good idea to shop for low-priced options which also pose low risk to traders.

Crude Oil Seasonal Patterns going into 2017January 20, 2017 - One of the most reliable seasonal patterns over the years has been the strength of crude oil beginning in the latter part of the first quarter and extending through most of the third quarter. This doesn’t mean that making money will be as easy as going long crude oil futures in January and selling in October, but it does mean that it might be a good idea to consider getting bullish on any large dip early in the year and getting bearish on any large rally later in the year.

Crude Oil Futures Technical AnalysisJanuary 20, 2017 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is mid-range without any hints at momentum and the price of crude oil futures are waffling within a trading range that dates back to the 2015 lows. In short, we cannot see any edge that would give directional traders anything more than a 50/50 proposition.

Crude Oil Options Implied VolatilityJanuary 20, 2017 - Option Volatility in crude oil is low. This is a better time to be buying crude oil options on futures than it is to sell them.

Crude Oil Futures COT Report Jan 2017January 20, 2017 - It might be hard to believe, but crude oil futures speculators are holding the largest net long position we’ve seen since oil crashed from just over 0 per barrel and eventually landing in the high s. In other words, the last time speculators were this aggressively long, the price of oil dropped roughly 60% in six months! This tells us that the upside could be limited for now.

NASDAQ Futures and QQQ ChartJanuary 11, 2017 - NASDAQ futures (and the QQQ ETF) have been leading the stock market higher. However, we question whether it is sustainable. Technical oscillators are overbought.

NASDAQ Futures Contract Seasonal PatternJanuary 11 - The seasonal peak in the NASDAQ futures market generally takes place on, or around, January 11th. Will it happen again this year? Lofty prices seem to increase the odds of a pullback in the short-run.

e-mini S&P Put OptionsJanuary 6, 2017 - There are no guarantees equity market volatility, and therefore implied volatility, will increase but the odds are in favor of it. Further, put options written on the S&P are at historically low levels. Now might be the time to consider buying cheap S&P put options. *Substantial risk of loss.

ES Futures Options Implied VolatilityJanuary 6, 2017- We've seen the IV in the e-mini S&P 500 options at 12.00 or below a mere six times in the last decade. This area marked a bottom on four of those occasions, and the other two reversed only moderately lower.

Dollar vs. Stock MarketThe dollar and the equity markets have rallied together. Not only that, but the dollar has reached a new 14-year high at a time in which the S&P 500 is at an all-time high! Clearly, the negative correlation between these two asset classes has shifted.

Gold Futures Post-ElectionNovember 29, 2016 - The lack of luster in gold futures could be temporary. The same event that had gold buyers active in October, sent them selling in November. We suspect they will be back.

Soybean Futures Daily ChartNovember 3, 2016 - Soybean futures prices seem destined to retest the .30 area but if so, it could be an attractive place for the bulls to get interested in the grain futures markets.

January Soybean Futures Seasonal TendenciesNovember 3, 2016 - The soybean futures have seen strong demand from China causing them to lead the grain markets higher. Seasonal tendencies in soybeans suggest the path of least resistance should be higher through December.

Crude Oil COT Report October 2016October 6, 2016 - The CFTC's Commitments of Traders Report suggests that crude oil speculators have already allocated most of their trading capital to long positions. Perhaps they won't have the buying power necessary to extend the rally.

Crude Oil Futures Seasonal Pattern by MRCIOctober 6, 2016 - Crude oil futures are flying high, but historical seasonal patterns suggest the market is most likely to top out in mid-October. Can the oil rally survive seasonal tendencies?

Japanese Yen Futures MarketSeptember 29, 2016 - The Japanese Yen is seen as a safe haven currency. Should Donald Trump continue to gain ground in election polls, the Yen could be bid higher as currency traders seek safety.

Trump and the US DollarSeptember 19, 2016 - Donald Trump's trade policy and a desire for higher interest rates is a relatively mixed bag of fundamentals for the US currency. However, uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency could trigger short-term selling if he continues to improve in the election polls.

Gold Futures Breakout?A few weeks ago we wrote a piece on gold for TheStreet.com; in short, the seasonality of gold is supportive and so is the technical landscape. In our view, a break above 128,380 should pave the way for a run into the mid-128,400 price range.

Gold futures ahead of Indian wedding seasonSeptember 15, 2016 - Despite the fact that gold futures speculators are holding a historically aggressive net long position, there might be reason for gold prices to firm up in the coming months. One of them is Indian wedding season demand (seasonals), and the other is a promising continuation pattern on the price chart.

Soybean Futures ChartSeptember 15, 2016- The January soybean futures contract appears to be putting in a triple bottom. If support fails, a run to the .15ish area is possible but we feel like the downside is limited to this area. We like the idea of buying cheap call options (limited risk).

e-mini S&P 500 futures testing support?September 15, 2016 - We have a feeling the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract will experience a long squeeze going into expiration of the September contract. This is similar to a short squeeze, but it forces out the bullish traders as prices collapse. If so, we could see 2070 on the December contract.

Corn Futures ChartAugust 31, 2016 - Corn futures have fallen precipitously following a short-lived summer rally. However, prices appear to be at a crossroads. Can we get an ag futures rally?

Wheat Futures ChartAugust 31, 2016 - Wheat futures have been trading lower in sympathy to corn but the market is also facing supply headwinds. Nevertheless, prices appear to be oversold and due for a bounce.

e-mini S&P 500 futures ChartAugust 25, 2016 - This feels like it could be the calm before the storm. The ES futures contract hasn't had a 1% move in over 30 days and the VIX is trolling historic lows. The chart points out resistance near 2215ish.

VIX Volatility Index Futures ChartAugust 25, 2016 - The weekly chart of the VIX reveals that slow stochastics have fallen into oversold territory and are now trending higher. This suggests there could be a trend change. Also, the VIX tends to bottom near current levels. Will market volatility return?

Crude Oil Futures UpdateAugust 16 , 2016 - WTI crude oil futures could be at the tail end of a short squeeze. Downtrend resistance falls near per barrel. Will we see a reversal?

e-mini S&P 500 overbought?August 15, 2016 - The e-mini S&P 500 appears to have grown fiercely overbought. Technical oscillators such as the RSI and Williams %R are suggesting the upside might be limited.

Commitments of Traders Report Crude OilJuly 26, 2016 - The CFTC's COT Report suggests large speculator liquidation has caused a 20% decline in crude oil futures. History suggests there could be more to come.

cash-market-cboe-vix-chartJuly 20th, 2016 - The CBOE's volatility index known simply as the VIX is hovering near historically cheap levels. Is this the calm before the storm?

Crude Oil Futures Correlation with the Stock Market The relationship between crude oil and the stock market has changed. It can no longer be assumed that a minor dip in oil will pull stocks down, and vice versa. However, as many traders have learned this year, correlations are dynamic.

Fed Funds Futures after BrexitJuly 12, 2016 - The Fed Funds futures market overreacted to Brexit. At its extreme, market participants were pricing in the possibility of a rate cut! However, the Fed still claims one to two rates cuts, if they stick to their guns, the Fed Funds futures contracts should be trading much lower.

Wheat futures look cheap ahead of USDA reportJune 30, 2016 - Wheat futures are trading at a six-year low, with two major support levels looming at .40 and again at .30. Will the USDA report turn this market around?

10-year Note FuturesJune 27, 2016 - An unexpected Brexit vote outcome lured investors into safety assets such as gold and Treasuries, but we suspect the tides will turn sooner rather than later. The 10-year note is likely overbought, and overvalued at these levels.

British Pound Brexit WoesJune 27 2016 - The British Pound has been in freefall since Thursday's referendum vote to leave the EU. Those looking to speculate in the GPB, might find it most useful to use the e-micro futures contract rather than the full-sized version to keep risks manageable.

Fed Funds futures are pricing in a rate cut!June 27 - The Brexit vote chaos caused the Fed Funds futures traders to nearly wipe out any expectations of a rate hike by December. Instead, they are partially pricing in a rate cut! We are adding to our bearish positions.

COT Report suggests Specs are too longJune 23, 2016 - The CFTC's Commitments of Traders Report is clear, speculators have become "too long" in gold futures. if the Brexit chaos comes to a head, gold will likely sell-off as speculators liquidate positions.

Gold futures should go into correction in the short-runJune 23, 2016 - Gold futures have been a beneficiary of Brexit vote anxiety, but the specs have likely gotten too long. We suspect a pullback to the 128,200 could be in the cards.

Natural Gas Daily ChartNatural gas has rallied 60% in a few months, but the chart is suggesting some headwinds could come into play sooner, rather than later. We see the first level of technical resistance near .83.

US Dollar Index Futures Daily ChartThe greenback is on an upswing, but trendline resistance suggests the rally could be short-lived. Look for resistance near 96.30.

Weekly Dollar Index Futures ContractThe dollar index futures contract broke long-term support earlier this month, but it resulted in a bear trap as shorts covered positions. We believe the buying will run out of steam sooner rather than later.

Fed Funds Futures Despite the fact that the FOMC has only raised interest rates once since 2008, the Fed Funds futures rates fluctuate on a daily basis based on expectations of the next move. In my opinion, there appears to be a low risk opportunity in getting bearish Fed Funds futures with expiration dates extending into late 2016 to early 2017. Keep in mind, the more distant the expiration, the higher the volatility will be. Nevertheless, these contracts move relatively slow and are margined low at less than 128,000.

WTI Crude Oil COT ReportMay 5, 2016- According to the CFTC's COT Report, large speculators have accumulated a net long position of roughly 340,000 contracts. In the past, such a large position has been prone to liquidation (and a crude oil price correction).

WTI Crude OIl Futures Daily ChartMay 5, 2016 - WTI crude oil futures have enjoyed a massive rally from the February lows, but technical analysis suggests prices will be confined within the current trading channel. If so, the rally should be capped near , and any selling should find a floor in the low s.

Gold Futures are on a Tear!April 28, 2016, Gold futures are proving the precious metals are in a bull market. The chart depicts a wedge pattern, which as generally assumed to be a continuation pattern in technical analysis. Accordingly, we are projecting another round of buying that could bring the price of gold to 128,340.

Corn Futures COT ChartApril 14th, 2016 - According to the CFTC's COT Report, as of last week large speculators were holding the largest net short corn position in decades. Short covering this position could potentially send corn well above .00.

25-Year Corn Futures ChartApril 14, 2016 - Corn futures have been in a dismal bear market for years. However, a long-term chart of corn suggest a bull market could be around the corner.

The Crude Oil Rally probably isn't over yetApril 8, 2016 - Oil futures prices have nearly doubled since their January lows, but the bull market probably has another leg to go. Technical oscillators are suggesting positive momentum, and the trading channel won't pose resistance until prices reach the mid-to-high s.

Euro currency futures on the verge of a breakout?March 31, 2016 - RSI and MACD plotted on a weekly euro chart, are decisively bullish. However, overhead resistance near 128.1490, and again near 128.1730 pose a threat to the bull camp. Nevertheless, we believe the dye is case for a breakout!

U.S. Dollar Index hitting the skids?March 31, 2016 - The dollar index has been trading in a messy, but valid, trading range since late 2015. If the sideways “trend” continues, we should be looking at a decline toward 93.00 in the index. However, if prices break below 93.00, which we believe is a probable scenario, we could see a significant repricing. After all, momentum indicators, such as RSI are trending lower, and bullish dollar sentiment appears to be waning.

Dow Jones Commodity Index near BreakoutMarch 17, 2016 - The Dow Jones Commodity Index is relatively diversified. The lack of crude oil overweighting, has it lagging that of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, but it is on the verge of a technical breakout!

Euro currency futures post-ECB meetingMarch 17th, 2016 - Despite massive temporary volatility, the euro currency has been in a trading range for months. However, we believe the bulls have an edge for the remainder of 2017 due to sharp rejections of bears near support levels.

Copper Commitment of Traders ReportFebruary 26th, 2016 - Large commodity speculators are holding record net short position in copper futures according to the CFTC's COT Report. The last time we saw this, copper rallied 45 cents.

Copper Futures ready to Rally?February 26th, 2016 - Copper prices have been on a steady decline or quite some times, but if other commodities (gold and crude oil) continue to trade firmly, copper could follow. A break above .15/.20 could open the door to .50.

Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count February 12, 2016 - U.S. shale oil producers seem to finally be capitulating. Domestic rig counts have fallen under 500. Two years ago they were closer to 1,700, and last year near 1,200.

Decoupling of stocks and crude oil futuresFebruary 5, 2016 - As WTI crude oil futures dropped below per barrel, the correlation between stocks and oil skyrocketed. They were nearly perfectly correlated during in late January!

WTI Crude Oil Futures Monthly ChartFebruary 5, 2016 - Crude oil futures have suffered significantly, leading many to call for prices to dip as low as per barrel. However, we believe that is unlikely. The mid-to-high s will probably hold, but if we are wrong, the next stopping point would b e !

Monthly S&P 500 Futures ChartFebruary 5, 2016 - Despite all of the chaos and turmoil, the e-mini S&P futures chart is merely neutral. It isn't disastrous, nor is it fantastic. There is no reason to hold a strong bias either way!

Stock Market and WTI Oil Futures Correlation February 5, 2016 - In this weekly chart of the correlation between stock index futures and crude oil futures, it is clear the typical relationship is rather loose. Yet, when oil gets heated, the correlation becomes nearly perfect (meaning both markets move together).

Crude Oil Futures Seasonal PatternJanuary 25, 2016 - WTI crude oil futures have a strong tendency to move higher in the month of February as refineries begin preparing for the spring and summer driving seasons. Can this be the saving grace for commodities, and the equity market?

Weekly TLT Chart to Judge Treasury FuturesJanuary 20, 2016 - Although we trade bond and note futures, the TLT ETF can be a good tool to chart the overall direction of the Treasury market. According to the TLT chart, the upside might be limited.

Treasury Futures Seasonal PatternJanuary 20, 2016 - Treasury futures tend to trade with a bearish bias in the month of January. However, this year has seen counter-seasonal trade. Nevertheless, if the market eventually conforms to a normal pattern the buying in T-bond and T-note futures should be temporary.

Goldman Sach's Commodity Index (GSCI)January 7, 2016 - Oversupply, lack of demand, and the stronger dollar, all took a toll on the commodity markets. But with the Goldman Sach's Commodity Index trading at levels not seen since the financial crisis, it seems the bear might have run its course.

U.S. Dollar Index ICE ExchangeJanuary 7, 2016 - The U.S. Dollar Index almost single handedly brought down the commodity complex. However, if the dollar softens in 2016, commodities should firm up!

CME emini S&P 500 futures January 7, 2015 - The ES futures contract has been in a virtual free-fall in sympathy to Chinese circuit breaker trading halts. However, fundamentals in the U.S. haven't changed despite the plunge. Perhaps tomorrow's employment numbers and earnings season will prop the e-mini S&P 500 futures back up!

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly ChartDecember 11, 2015 - Crude oil futures are seeing divergence on a weekly chart (the RSI is making higher lows, but the market is making lower lows). Also, the wedge pattern suggests technical chart support lies near per barrel.

Euro Currency Futures Monthly ChartDecember 11, 2015 - Euro futures have consistently found support after declining anywhere from 30 to 37 cents, with the average being 34. Thus, it is possible the lows have been seen in the euro market.

Crude Oil Commitments of Traders Report by the CFTCDecember 11, 2015 - Crude oil speculators have sold most of their long futures. Each time they have liquidated this much, the market has found support.

The Mother of All Short SqueezesDecember 4, 2015 - Speculators were massively short the euro currency in the futures markets ahead of the ECB meeting; the result was devastating. A massive short squeeze forced the bears out of their over-crowded trade. There is no free lunch in the markets!

Euro Currency Futures and the COT ReportDecember 4, 2015 - This week will be one to remember for euro currency futures traders. December 3rd, marked the second biggest one-day move in the Euro. The first? It was in March of 2009 during the financial crisis. In both cases, speculators were simply too short, and had forced priced to artificially low prices. Eventually, the tables turned.

Corn Seasonal Tendencies are BullishNovember 23, 2015 - Corn futures prices generally find support at some point in October. This is known as the harvest lows, and represents the point in time that supplies are abundant. However, corn tends to firm up from there, finding reason to rally into February.

Euro Currency Futures ChartNovember 6, 2015 - The Euro has been beaten down on prospects for a U.S. interest rate hike, more stimulus in Europe, and a blockbuster U.S. jobs number. However, seasonals and technicals suggest the lows could be looming.

Natural Gas Futures are OversoldOctober 29, 2015 - In the commodity markets, one man's pain is another man's opportunity. Natural gas prices fell sharply on speculator and fund liquidation, but the market could be due for a nice bounce.

Natural Gas Futures are near technical supportOctober 21 - NG futures traded on NYMEX have been on a steady down-trend, but support looms and technical oscillators are oversold. Can we get a bounce out of here?

Gold to Silver Ratio UpdateOctober 7, 2015: The gold-to-silver ratio has topped out at 80 on each occasion in the last two decades. Thus, we suspect the recent test of 77 marked the inflection point of the move, and perhaps a significant bottom in the precious metals.

Live Cattle Futures Trend Reversal?October 6, 2015- Cattle futures have tumbled precipitously. In fact, I don't recall such a decline ever occurring (at least not without the help of a mad cow scare). Further, seasonal factors typically call for sideways to higher trade for most of October and technical indicators are suggesting prices are massively oversold.

Commitments of Traders Report - E-mini S&P 500September 24 - The most recent COT Report was released on Friday September 19th, and accounts for data acquired on September 15th. At the time, small speculators were estimated to be holding a net long position in excess of 400,000. This is the first time we’ve seen this group get this aggressive on the long side of the market (ever). At the same time, the large speculator had amassed the largest net short position we’ve seen this group take since 2011; however, with a net short holding of roughly 250,000 contracts large speculators appear to still have capital available to add considerably to their position.

If you are going to sell options, place the strike prices beyond technical support and resistance!September 15, 2015 - Blindly selling options on futures is a bad idea. Short option traders should actively monitor technical support and resistance; the strike price of any sold option should be beyond charting barriers.

Futures market volatility and option sellingSeptember 15, 2015 - Too many commodity option sellers overlook the importance of monitoring volatility. A euro currency option strangle seller could have constructed a short strangle in late August FOR THE SAME PREMIUM with a profit zone that is 200 ticks wider than would have been possible in the previous week (before the spike in market volatility).

ES Futures Chart ahead of the Federal ReserveSeptember 11, 2015 - Stock index futures traders are focused on next week's historical Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. The chart is forming a wedge that could be resolved by the Fed. We suspect a downside break out in the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is most likely.

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ReportSeptember 2, 2015 - According to the Commitments of Traders Report issued by the CFTC, crude oil futures speculators liquidated 40% of their holdings on the recent slide. This should support prices because traders will likely want to put money back into the commodity markets.

Crude Oil Futures Weekly ChartAugust 28 - Crude oil futures have rallied sharply on news of tension in the MIddle East, but the chart was telling the story all along. Technical support at held like a charm.

Goldman Sachs Commodity IndexAugust 27 - A weekly chart of the GSCI depicts just how technically oversold the commodity complex has become. However, the chart could be suggesting a double bottom is in the works. The best trades in commodities will likely be from the long side of the futures markets.

Australian Dollar Currency FuturesAugust 27 - The AUD/USD currency pair, which is highly dependent on the commodity markets, has been dramatically devalued on concerns of weak demand for commodities out of China. However, if China firms up, so will commodities and the Aussie Dollar futures market.

Chinese Stock ETFAugust 27 - Panic in the Chinese stock market has sent rippled throughout the commodity futures markets, but market stabilization might be right around the corner.

S&P 500 Futures Mini-Crash August 24 - The e-mini S&P 500 futures when locked limit for the first time ever this morning. But the policy intended to stabilize trade, probably added to futures market volatility.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical AnalysisAugust 13 - The crude oil slide will likely see the mid-to-high s, but the downside is probably limited from there.

Crude Oil COT ChartAugust 13 2015 - Large speculators in crude oil futures have offset 30% of their bullish holdings since June. They now have plenty of buying power to put to use when prices turn the corner.

Natural Gas Futures Technical AnalysisAugust 7 2015 - The seasonal low in natural gas futures is due in early September. In the meantime, support near .60 could be a place to consider getting bullish in this commodity.

U.S. Dollar vs. Gold FuturesJuly 31, 2015 - Most of the weakness in gold futures in recent years is at the hands of a stronger dollar, not necessarily gold market fundamentals. If the greenback falls, gold will rise.

Gold Futures Seasonal ChartJuly 31, 2015 - According to MRCI (Moore Research Center Incorporated), data taken of December gold in the previous 5 years has seen a sharp price increase beginning in early August.

Gold Futures ChartJuly 31, 2015 - The July 27th plunge in gold futures did some technical damage to the chart, but all is not lost. Trend reversals in gold futures are usually very messy; they typically take place over several trading sessions and offer traders plenty of sleepless nights and head fakes. Nonetheless, there are still some compelling technical analysis arguments for a potential gold recovery.

Gold Futures COT ChartJuly 31 2015 - Large speculators are holding the smallest net short (bearish) position in gold futures we’ve seen in well over a decade. Some look at this as a potential bearish development for gold, but in light of the fact that this group of well-funded speculators have almost always been long gold, we look at it as a positive.

Euro Futures Market ChartJuly 7, 2015 - The euro currency futures market is awaiting a resolution in Greece. In the meantime, the downside in the EU currency is probably limited to 128.0750.

Aussie Dollar Futures Buying Opportunity?June 29, 2015 In the midst of the weekend Greek tragedy, the Aussie plunged into technical trend-line support in the mid-.7550 and has subsequently bounced. However, depending on events in Greece we can’t rule out one more leg of across the board selling in currencies (synonymous with buying of the U.S. dollar), that could lead the Aussie down to the mid-to-low .7400s. This would complete a retest of the March low and, in our opinion, would likely result in a double-bottom according to standard technical analysis. Thus, we’d be willing to get aggressively bullish if this level was seen.

October Sugar Futures Chart June 2015 - Although all commodity prices are in the basement, the bear market in sugar seems to be off the radar of most futures traders. However, sometimes the best trading opportunities are in the commodity markets the masses are ignoring. Will sugar futures trading on the ICE exchange hold support and find a way to rally?

Copper Futures Daily ChartJune 5 2015 - The daily copper chart reveals a break of trend-line support. This should lure more selling, but the seasonal bottom typically occurs in mid-June. Thus, copper bulls should be looking for opportunities near support levels.

Copper Futures Monthly ChartJune 5 2015 - The monthly chart of copper reveals that the price of this commodity has traded above .40 for much of the last decade (the exception being the 2008 financial crisis). Thus, perhaps the downside is limited in this industrial metal.

eurointradayJune 2 2015 - The euro currency is soaring as the market squeezes out complacent bears ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. The FOREX market might also see volatility on Friday's payroll report.

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May 22 - Euro Currency Monthly ChartThe Euro currency has recovered from the March lows, but if history has any bearing this could be only the beginning. Previous market reversals from trend-line support have seen 30 cent rallies!

May 2015 Corn Futures ChartCorn futures have suffered at the hands of a massive bumper crop, but the lower dollar, seasonal weather concerns, and technical support should keep a floor under the market.

October Sugar Futures Seasonally BullishOctober sugar typically sees a boost via seasonal tendencies in late May, to early June. Thus, the bear market in sugar is in danger of a reversal.

May 11 2015 Weekly ICE Dollar Index ChartThe Dollar Index Futures contract could see more selling pressure! According to the COT Report by the CFTC, speculators are still extremely short the Euro (long the dollar). There could be more unwinding ahead!

May 11 2015 - Monthly Chart of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity IndexQuantitative Easing and a weaker dollar, should force commodity prices higher. Despite the crude oil rally, commodities are still cheap. We haven't seen the Dow Jones-UBS commodity index below 100 since 2002.

May 11 2015 Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Price ChartThe crude oil rally might signal other commodities are cheap! The commodity market hasn't responded to the energy rally as much as one might expect.

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