Jump-Ball in Florida's 21st Congressional District, Where Republican Diaz-Balart Seeks 9th Term in U.S. House:
In an election for United States House of Representatives from Florida's 21st Congressional District today, 08/28/08, Republican incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart faces a serious challenge from Democrat Raul L Martinez, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Today, it's Martinez 48%, Diaz-Balart 46%. The outcome is within the survey's 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error and is not statistically significant. The contest is and should be described at this hour as effectively even. Older voters materially favor Diaz-Balart, who was first elected 16 years ago. Younger voters, who in general are less reliable voters and who in 2008 are even more of a pollster wild-card, favor Martinez, who is a former Mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart was born in Havana and is the son of a Cuban politician. Cubans living in the 21st District back Diaz-Balart by 42 points. Non-Cuban Hispanics back Martinez by 19 points. White voters, who are in the minority in this district, break 5:4 for Martinez.
Half of voters in Florida 21 see the economy as the most important issue facing Congress. Voters focused on the economy break 4:3 Democrat. Diaz-Balart holds 84% of Republicans. Martinez holds 81% of Democrats. Independents break 3:2 for the Democrat. Moderates break 3:2 for the Democrat. Those who think Oil Companies are responsible for the price of gasoline break 5:4 for the Democrat. Those who think Environmentalists, Foreign Governments, or the U.S. Congress are responsible for gasoline prices vote for the incumbent Republican.

District Complexion:
Florida's 21st District slices through 30 miles on the western edge of Dade and Broward counties, including most of the city of Hialeah. A majority in the district are Hispanic. SurveyUSA conducted this poll in English and in Spanish. Each respondent was given the opportunity to select the language he/she preferred. 80% elected to complete the survey in English. 20% elected to complete the survey in Spanish. Spanish language respondents back the Republican 2:1. English-language respondents back the Democrat 5:4. If voting households where English is not spoken are for any reason under-represented in this survey, an edge goes to the Republican.
46% of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama. 46% have a favorable opinion of John McCain. McCain and Obama tie, 48% each, in an election for President today. Neither candidate for Congress underperforms or overperforms the candidate at the top of the ticket.
42% have a favorable opinion of Diaz-Balart, increasing to 60% among seniors. His Net Favorable Rating is Plus 12. Voters who have a "neutral" opinion of Diaz-Balart break 2:1 for Martinez.
33% have a favorable opinion of Martinez. His Net Favorable Rating is Plus 1. Voters who have a "neutral" opinion of Martinez break 5:4 for Martinez.
24% approve of the job the United States Congress is doing, twice as high as in many other Congressional Districts.
34% approve of the job President George W. Bush is doing.

Filtering:
775 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/24/08 through 08/26/08, using Registration Based Sample purchased from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 632 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November. Diaz-Balart ran unopposed in 1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, and 2002. In 2004 Diaz-Balart won with 73% of the vote. In 2006, Diaz-Balart won with 60% of the vote.

1

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

Which one issue should congress focus on ahead of all others? (choices rotated) The economy? The environment? Health care? Iraq? Terrorism? The price of gasoline? Education? Immigration? Or some other issue?

If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America's energy problems ... and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy ... which candidate would you vote for?