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Enlightenment Through Understanding

The Liberal War on Experts

May 12, 2014

The dow is at another record high -a bull market of over five years with no signs of slowing. This would make it the second longest bull market ever, behind only the 1991-1998 one. We’ve been bullish every day of this bull market and we see no reason to change our position. In fact, present economic conditions are more conducive for further upside than any any prior decade in recent history -even more so than the 80′s and 90′s. In late 2012 Jan Hatzius, a Goldman analyst, predicted the economic and stock market boom would continue. He was right, in contrast to the crybabies on the left that still insist we’re in a recession because there’s too much inequality or not enough people can find jobs.

There’s a study widely cited by liberals that expert predictions are right about 50% of the time. But we shouldn’t get carried away and dismiss experts entirely. Many outcomes cannot be rectified to a simple Bernoulli trial. If an expert says oil is going higher and oil does immediately go higher before falling, is the expert right or wrong? Experts are useful because they can lend their knowledge and experience to help people make more informed decisions, as well as fix problems. An expert on Middle East policy may not be able to predict with much certainty if there will be peace between Israel and Palestine, but he can prescribe policy that can help fix tensions if they arise. An economist cannot predict crisis but he can fix crisis with policy.

The most likely explanation for liberal distrust of experts is because welfare liberalism is rooted in superstitions and wishful thinking, whereas experts use facts, logic and reason.