A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 05, 2012

2 Pathetic Looking Tropical Storms... (being honest here)

These have to be the two most pathetic looking Tropical Storms I have seen in a long, long time. And, in many other years they would not still be classified as Tropical Storms...

With all the talk of Global Warming I'd like to know why we are stuck with these measly storms that can barely form into Tropical Storms and cannot make Hurricane even if the models give them the blueprints. I thought Global Warming was going to give us Category 7 Hurricanes that eat Florida and burp up the Florida Keys before moving on to carving out a new channel up the Mississippi River.

Seems we have a few bugs to work out in understanding Global Warming as well as Tropical Weather.

Ernesto is barely a storm, a messy mix of rainy weather and moderately low barometric pressure moving west. Dry air and a forward motion akin to a derecho have given it a look of a group of thunderstorms westbound.

Look at Florence on this image, getting cut off from the juice encased in pale peach... dying for lack of wet moisture and latent heat that would feed it ... it's starving for tropical energy and not getting any.

Florence is out in the far, cool Atlantic where Global Warming has not yet lit any fuse in the Atlantic Ocean and she's being cut off from her tropical moisture source, becoming encircled by dry air. Her one saving grace maybe be her LONG tail that has a chance to reconnect with warm water. She has to get another ten degrees or so west for her to get water hot enough to help her out.

She needs to find those tangerine dreams if she wants to make those long range forecast come true. But, no she's over there in that maize yellow area that is not hot enough to get a good steam going on a late night Nespresso.

Check out this water vapor loop...not looking good. Not a lot of moisture and not a lot of warm water.

Oddly, the area warmest and most sociable is east of Florida where there is a kick ass Upper Level Low that is spinning better than either Ernesto of Florence. If something could work it's way down to the surface there, that might be worth watching. Might.."if" ...whatever.

What the NHC will do at 11pm I cannot speculate, but I know if it was my call I'd make Ernesto a Tropical Depression and leave Florence alone for another six hours as oddly despite any real strong convection, she has a better circulation intact. My luck they will probably do the opposite.

So, basically what we have tonight is the cold reality, like the cold water temps that the models were WRONG and Ernesto did not become a strong hurricane approaching Jamaica, Ernesto did not bomb and become the strong storm that was protected, Ernesto did not pass go and did not collect 200 dollars and we need to figure out why the models were so off with Ernesto... because basically we are model driven with regard to our forecasts and rarely will the NHC forecast go against the models.

The problem with Florence is this.... IF ... Florence holds her own until she gets further west and gets some help from warmer water and more a more hospitable environment she can become the sleeper storm of the year. But, ONLY ...IF...she holds her own and keeps some semblance of circulation. Some models dissipate her. Other models take her to just off the East Coast of the United States. Sneaky little storm maybe... hard to say, important to keep watching.

As for me... been a long day that included watching a Revolutionary War Re-enactment, sunflowers, sushi, mango sorbet and enjoying watching our old hood with my son as we watched Burn Notice together. Watching us watching Burn Notice goes sort of like this:

"The beach by 21st street"
"No, down by 1st street"
"Maybe, could be...yeah you're right"

"That's Sunset Island, not the Grove"

"Wow, I know that road"

"I love that bar, love the view from that bar"

"Look Marco's house in the Grove, look fast..."
"Is that your favorite house on La Gorce?"
"No, you were right it's in the Grove'

And, wondering how they could get to the Doral from the Miami River in ten minutes....

LOVE having REAL Tropical Storms to track in August, however we really don't have much to work with and that can be good for those location shots on South Beach and it does leave the Eden Roc looking pretty for another year.

My real worries are further north... where we are still watching the Invest near the North Coast of Florida that has been tropically active several times this year and there is no reason to believe something else can't form there or hit there later in the season.

Meanwhile, if you want some excitement... watch the Earthquake Ticker on Drudge or watch the Martian Lander touchdown on Mars.

And, keep your eye on Florence because no matter what the 11 pm discussion says ... IF she survives as a very weak system she will thrive further down the road. Meanwhile, they won't want to downgrade Ernesto because the MODELS have it as a possible hurricane in the Gulf still...those that don't show it zooming west crossing the Panama Canal.

Tough call for the NHC.... do they both survive or does one get the boot off Survivor Island.

Because a little while earlier today the GFS was spitting out this forecast for a storm just off the East Coast of Florida. Things change... so keep that in mind while reading the 11pm discussion on Florence.... I know I'll be reading it...

Remember... models are only a forecast... like astrology... it's a forecast for the weather... it verifies or it doesn't .... check back here tomorrow morning to see how Ernesto did over night and if Florence is still stuck in the flow westbound...