India's Burma test

Aung San Suu Kyi's release grows pressure on the Manmohan Singh government to resolve the Burmese crisis and prove its worthiness as a big power, says N.V.Subramanian.

By N.V. Subramanian (15 November 2010)

London, 15 November 2010: Sooner rather than later, India will have to correct its Burma policy to reconcile it with the unstoppable democratic aspirations of the Burmese. Aung San Suu Kyi has been released on the heels of a fraudulent election where the military's role in ruling the insular and backward nation has been institutionalized. A turbulent neighbour like Burma is bad for India. It is worse because India's credentials to join the UN Security Council (UNSC) as a permanent member will partly be tested on its Burma policy. The visiting US president, Barack Obama, made a direct hurtful reference to Burma while endorsing India's UNSC ambitions, but it is nevertheless one of the international “responsibilities” that India has to shoulder and resolve. For itself, too, in the immediate-term, India has to prepare a road map for Burma, because unrest in that country increases Chinese influence, which hurts India. So what's to be done?

For long, India fumbled at a Burma policy, permitting the Chinese to make inroads, playing upon the military junta's fear of the outside world. When China's Burma policy dovetailed with its plans to encircle India, which was partly encoded in its “string of pearls” strategy, the previous NDA government decided to engage the military regime. The engagement policy was opportunistic, cynical and damaged India's democratic credentials. It also brought personal embarrassment for the NDA defence minister, George Fernandes, a diehard backer of Burmese democracy. In turn, Fernandes' Burma line embarrassed the Indian government. But all sides reached to the uncomfortable conclusion that given the rising Chinese threat from Burma, India had to make the best of what was possible.
India's present policy in Burma has yielded mixed results. Burma is still close to China which uses its UNSC veto power to insulate the military regime from international US-led trouble. But at the same time, Indian engagement has prevented a wholesale Burmese selloff to China. Indian engagement with Burma has also substantially robbed North Eastern militant and terrorist groups of sanctuaries there, although the junta's control of peripheral territories is weak.
But change is creeping into Burma. India has to be alive to this. Aung San Suu Kyi has been set free. Her future course of action is unclear. This is understandable. The junta has just put in place a political structure to legitimize its role. That won't be easy. But nor will it be simple for Aung San Suu Kyi to blow it away. She is in her mid-sixties. Her political party is close to non-existent. Her best bet would be to stay out of jail and put in place an institutional structure and second-line leadership to advance the democracy movement further.
But she also needs to engage two of Burma's most important foreign interlocutors, India and China. China is closer to the Burmese military regime and, therefore, on the face of it, necessarily more important. But China is a problem because it is a totalitarian state and would have the same fears about a democratic China as it has about a united Korea. Significantly, while the US is engaging China about North Korea (even if presently the engagement is in a shambles), it is not pressing it enough on Burma. Possibly, it does not want to grant China too big a role in Burma. On the other hand, the US has been leaning on India on Burma sometimes quietly and sometimes not so quietly. Iran and Burma test India's suppleness to join the UN Security Council as a permanent member.
So willy-nilly, Aung San Suu Kyi will discover India to be a more significant interlocutor for meeting her aims and purposes. She has old ties with India and she would realize any future Burmese democracy will find more in common with India than with the West. But how to progress to that future democracy is the nub. There is a way, and some honest and purposive Indian diplomacy would help matters.
A stable, democratic, prosperous Burma is both in Burma and India's interests. This needs gently to be put across to the military junta. India has gained enough trust for this to be conveyed over a period of time without being suspected or misunderstood. Secondly, India must offer its good offices to bring Aung San Suu Kyi and the regime on talking terms with democracy as the end-state for Burma. If the regime is not herded and if Aung San Suu Kyi is convinced that her ideals are not being compromised, a dialogue can be facilitated.
Indian diplomacy can work to bring the two Burmese opposing parties together in Burma, India or outside, although Aung San Suu Kyi would not like to step out of Burma anytime soon for fear she will be barred from returning. But the substantive way is for India quietly to offer its good offices in whatever way acceptable to the two sides.
Moderation and lowered expectations is the key to success here. To expect dramatic changes overnight would be foolish and foolhardy. Nor will inimical parties like China keep quiet. It must be understood that China draws power from its totalitarian allies. It would not hesitate to instigate the individual ambitions of the Burmese brass against democracy. But India would have to convince the junta leadership that its present move to gain quasi-political legitimacy for its rule is in itself an admission that republican Burma cannot be denied much longer. On the other hand, Aung San Suu Kyi must realize that the breathless, slightly undergraduate quality of backing for her in the West won't move the regime any.
And for India, Burma represents a test case for its diplomacy. Here is a chance uniquely to advance Indian interests while preserving those of a troubled but basically harmless neighbour with deep historical and cultural ties to this country. To campaign with the world to get India UNSC veto power is one thing. But the path to there lies through minefields like Burma and Iran. It's time to call out the sappers.
N.V.Subramanian is Editor, www.NewsInsight.net, and writes internationally on strategic affairs. He has authored two novels, University of Love (Writers Workshop, Calcutta) and Courtesan of Storms (Har-Anand, Delhi). Email: envysub@gmail.com.

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