Women's basketball: Pac-12 Women's Tournament not so clear cut

Stanford, Cal definitely tops in conference, but both have flaws

By Brian Howell Buffzone.com

Posted:
03/06/2013 06:28:15 PM MST

As the Pac-12 Women's Basketball Tournament gets underway in Seattle on Thursday, most figure it's a two-horse race to the title.

No. 4 Stanford (28-2) and No. 5 California (27-2) shared the regular season championship and neither team lost to an opponent currently ranked outside the top six. Combined, the two teams went 32-0 against the rest of the conference.

Don't count out the rest of the field just yet, however.

"Don't look at that final and think it's going to be Stanford-Cal for sure and put money on it in Vegas," said Mary Murphy, an analyst for the Pac-12 Network. "I really think is going to be a very interesting tournament. I wouldn't put my bracket in ink at this point."

Murphy said that while Stanford and Cal are very good, "They also have very obvious weaknesses."

In its loss to Cal on Jan. 13, Stanford didn't shoot the ball well and had several players get in foul trouble. Cal is the worst free-throw shooting team in the conference (60.9 percent) and has been inconsistent with its perimeter game.

Get physical with either team, Murphy said, and Stanford and Cal could be beat.

No team seeded outside of the top three has ever won this tournament. Still, Murphy said fifth-seeded Washington could make a run because it has the potential to be dangerous on offense (plus having the home-town crowd in the seats). Among the lower seeds, No. 10 Oregon State could make some noise because of how well it has played against top teams lately.

History suggests Stanford will be there at the end, however. In the 11-year history of this event, the Cardinal have been in the finals every year and won it nine times. They've been the No. 1 seed every year and have won the event six years in a row.

Yet, even Stanford head coach Tara VanDerveer isn't banking on cutting down the nets just yet.

"This year's tournament I think is open," VanDerveer said. "There's a lot of very talented players and one thing I think is real exciting is there are so many talented young players. They get on a tournament stage and who knows what they're going to do?"

Here's a look at each of the 12 teams coming into the tournament:

No. 1 Stanford (28-2, 17-1 Pac-12): The Cardinal have the Pac-12's best defense and the No. 2 offense. They lead the conference in free throw and field-goal percentage. And, they lead the conference in field-goal percentage defense. With Pac-12 Player of the Year Chiney Ogwumike leading the way and All-Pac 12 players Joslyn Tinkle and Amber Orrange, Stanford is loaded with talent.

No. 3 UCLA (23-6, 14-4): The Bruins are one of the best offensive teams in the Pac-12, while being solid on defense. No one player stands out, but they have good balance and play a deep rotation of players, which could be a benefit if they have to play three games in three days.

No. 4 Colorado (24-5, 13-5): Like UCLA, the Buffaloes have a deep rotation and good balance. CU also has a clutch shooter -- Chucky Jeffery -- who can step up in a pinch and a defense that rivals any in the conference.

No. 5 Washington (19-10, 11-7): The Huskies take a four-game losing streak into the tournament, with the last three coming against CU, Stanford and Cal. Despite their recent struggles, the young Huskies have dangerous players. Should Jazmine Davis (19.2 ppg), Kristi Kingma (13.7 ppg), Talia Walton (13.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Aminah Williams (9.3 ppg, 10.7 rpg) get their act together, Washington could be a darkhorse contender.

No. 6 Utah (17-12, 8-10): After a 1-6 start (with all six losses against Stanford, Cal and CU), the Utes went 7-4 down the stretch. They have been inconsistent, with recent losses to Arizona and Washington State, but the Utes have the defense and front-court talent to give opponents fits.

No. 7 USC (10-19, 7-11): The Trojans are 3-11 in their last 14 games, with all three wins against the Arizona schools. They have had several close losses in that stretch, though. With a talented roster, led by Cassie Harberts and Ariya Crook, USC could pull off a surprise or two.

No. 8 Washington State (10-19, 6-12): The Cougars have had a hot-and-cold season, with two five-game losing streaks sandwiched around a 4-1 stretch. They came into the tournament a year ago at No. 11 and won two games to get the semifinals, but would need to get past Stanford in Round 2 to repeat that.

No. 9 Arizona State (13-17, 5-13): It's been a tough year for a young and inexperienced squad. The Sun Devils are 2-9 in their last 11 games, with both wins against rival Arizona. Good balance and a solid defense could serve them well as they look to upset Washington State in the first round.

No. 10 Oregon State (10-20, 4-14): The Beavers have experienced more than their share of tough breaks this season. They are 1-11 in their last 12 games, but conference coaches are wary of them. That's because three of those losses came in overtime and they gave Cal, Colorado and Washington (twice) all they could handle, and knocked off Utah last week.

No. 11 Arizona (12-17, 4-14): Since Jan. 28, the Wildcats are 2-12. However, both wins came against Utah, which is their first-round opponent. Arizona has shown an ability to play well against tough competition at times and with All-Pac-12 guard Davellyn Whyte leading the way, they could win a game or two.

No. 12 Oregon (4-26, 2-16): The Ducks haven't won a game at this tournament since 2008, and will need an exceptional effort to break that streak. Oregon's up-tempo style has benefited its opponents more than the Ducks. Oregon gives up a conference-worst 75.8 points per game, while scoring just 60.8 per game.

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