The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

U.S. Factory Orders Report for July, 2006

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for July, 2006:

Predicted: -1.0%Actual: -0.6%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 26, 2006

The U.S. Department of Labor this morning released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on August 26, 2006:

Predicted: 315,000Actual: 316,000

The above figures represent the number of new claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

DJIA and NASDAQ Composite Gained Today; S&P 500 Closed Flat

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the NASDAQ Composite gained some ground today, but the S + P 500 Index closed essentially flat. 1,279,535,440 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

The preliminary, real U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the second-quarter of 2006 was released this morning:

Predicted: +3.0%Actual: +2.9%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure. The GDP report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The final GDP report for Q2, 2006, which will contain the most authoritative data for the second-quarter, will be released on September 28, 2006.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

Here's a snippet from a press release issued by the Commerce Department this morning:

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2006, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 5.6 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE for durable goods, downturns in equipment and software and in federal government spending, decelerations in exports and in PCE for nondurable goods, and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports, an acceleration in PCE for services, and an upturn in private inventory investment.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.05 percentage point to the second-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.07 percentage point to the first-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.28 percentage point from the second-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.12 percentage point to the first-quarter growth."

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

The Possibility that The Fed May Remain on The Sidelines Helped The 3 Majors Advance Today

The 3 major indices advanced today as investors got bullish in response to the content in the minutes from the August 8TH Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. 1,376,852,020 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August, 2006

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (August, 2006) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 103.0Actual: 99.6

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is pegged to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

Redbook Numbers for The Week of August 26, 2006

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on August 26, 2006 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +3.3%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores--about 9,000 stores in total--and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.3% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in August of 2005.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 19, 2006

The U.S. Department of Labor this morning released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on August 19, 2006:

Predicted: 315,000Actual: 313,000

The above figures represent the number of new claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Durable Goods Orders Report for July, 2006 Released Today

The Durable Goods Orders report for July, 2006 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.2%Actual: -2.4%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, microwave ovens, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure. The U.S. Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department.

Existing Home Sales for July, 2006

The Existing Home Sales report for July, 2006 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 6,550,000Actual: 6,330,000

The U.S. Existing Home Sales report is a sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for a given month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Comments made by two Federal Reserve officials contributed much to the 3 major indices closing essentially flat today. Chicago Fed boss Michael Moskow and Atlanta Fed chief Jack Guynn both expressed concern about inflation in separate speeches today, which caused many investors to reconsider current interest rate predictions for 2006. 1,215,985,200 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Redbook Numbers for The Week of August 19, 2006

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on August 19, 2006 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +3.3%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores--about 9,000 stores in total--and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.3% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in August of 2005.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) for August, 2006

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment numbers for August, 2006 were released this morning:

Predicted: 83.8Actual: 78.7

The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Modest Gains for The 3 Major Indices Today, On Cheaper Crude Oil

The 3 major indexes closed with modest gains today, as crude for future delivery got cheaper and the cost of New York Spot Gold fell by $13.20. 1,570,544,080 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Shares of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component Merck (MRK) fell by $2.35 (-5.71%) to close @ $38.83 on news of two legal setbacks, including a recent jury award of $51 million for retired FBI agent Gerald Barnett, who suffered a heart attack while taking Vioxx.

Leading Economic Indicators for July, 2006

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for July, 2006 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.1 %Actual: -0.1%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 12, 2006

The U.S. Department of Labor this morning released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on August 12, 2006:

Predicted: 315,000Actual: 312,000

The above figures represent the number of new claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

An Encouraging CPI Report for July Helped All 3 Majors to Advance Today

All 3 major indices enjoyed healthy gains today. The numbers in the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicate that inflation is waning, which may lead to the Fed leaving interest rates alone on September 20TH. 1,603,890,040 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, 2006

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for July, 2006 were released by The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Consensus: +0.4%Actual: +0.4%

Here are the numbers when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:

Consensus: +0.3%Actual: +0.2%

The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

Housing Starts in July, 2006

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for July, 2006:

Housing Starts:Consensus: 1,800,000Actual: 1,795,000

Building Permits:Actual: 1,747,000

The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in The United States for last month. The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. The monthly Housing Starts report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Strong Gains for All 3 Majors Today, On An Encouraging PPI Report

All 3 major indexes enjoyed strong gains today as investors got bullish about the numbers in the July Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which indicate that inflation is starting to simmer down: this translates to an increased likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will pass on raising the Fed Funds Target Rate on September 20TH. 1,514,916,910 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, 2006

The Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for July, 2006 were released this morning:

Consensus: +0.4%Actual:+0.1%

Here are the numbers when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:

Consensus: +0.2%Actual:-0.3%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Redbook Numbers for The Week of August 12, 2006

The Redbook numbers for the week that ended on August 12, 2006 were released this morning:

Redbook Sales Figures: +3.2%

The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores--about 9,000 stores in total--and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.2% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in August of 2005.

The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.

Monday, August 14, 2006

The 3 Majors Enjoyed Modest Gains on Cheaper Crude

The 3 major indices enjoyed modest gains today, as crude for future delivery fell below the $74 mark, and tensions in the Middle East abated. 1,397,177,450 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Shares of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component International Business Machines (IBM) gained $1.20 (+1.59%) to close @ $76.68.

"The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $367.9 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 4.8 percent (±0.8%) from July 2005. Total sales for the May through July 2006 period were up 5.9 percent ±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2006 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.7%)* to -0.4 percent (± 0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 1.5 percent (±0.7%) from June and were 4.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 19.2 percent (±2.0%) from July 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 15.6 percent (±4.5%) from last year. "

U.S. Import and Export Price Indices for July, 2006

The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released the Price Indices for U.S. Imports and Exports for July, 2006 :

Import PricesConsensus: +0.8%Actual: +0.9%

Export PricesActual: +0.4%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices for

Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the U.S.

Exports: the cost of goods produced in the U.S. and sold in other countries.

Together, these indices offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well.

The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

The following is a snippet from today's Labor Department report:

"The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.9 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. A 4.7 percent advance in petroleum prices more than offset a modest 0.1 percent decline in nonpetroleum prices. The price index of overall exports rose 0.4 percent in July following a 0.7 percent increase in June.

Import Goods

Import prices rose 0.9 percent in July, led up for the third time in the past four months by rising petroleum prices. The price index for import petroleum, which advanced 11.3 percent in April and 6.4 percent in May, increased 4.7 percent in July following a 1.4 downturn in June. For the year, petroleum prices rose 29.6 percent. In contrast, nonpetroleum prices edged down a modest 0.1 percent in July after increasing in each of the previous three months. Prices for nonpetroleum imports advanced 2.3 percent over the past 12 months, while overall import prices rose 7.0 percent for the same period.

The small July decrease in nonpetroleum prices was led by a downturn in the price index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials, which fell 0.9 percent following increases of 2.8 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, in May and June. The drop in nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials prices was driven by a turnaround in unfinished metal prices, although lower prices for natural gas and building materials also contributed to the July decline. Higher chemicals and finished metal prices, however, served to offset some of the decline in nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials.

A modest 0.1 percent decrease in consumer goods prices also contributed to lower July prices for nonpetroleum imports. Consumer goods prices were unchanged over the past 12 months.

In contrast, the price indexes for automotive vehicles, capital goods, and foods, feeds, and beverages all rose in July. Automotive vehicle prices increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month, and advanced 0.7 percent for the year ended in July. Capital goods prices and prices for foods, feeds, and beverages each ticked up 0.1 percent for the month. The increase in capital goods prices followed a 0.3 percent rise in June, but despite those increases, the index declined 0.4 percent over the past year. Prices for foods, feeds, and beverages rose 3.9 percent for the July 2005-2006 period.

Export Goods

Export prices increased 0.4 percent in July, as both agricultural prices and nonagricultural prices contributed to the advance. Prices for agricultural exports rose 1.9 percent after a 2.5 percent increase in June. Higher prices for wheat, fruit, and soybeans all contributed to the increase. Agricultural prices advanced 1.9 percent over the past year, as the recent increases more than offset lower prices at the end of 2005 and the beginning of 2006. Nonagricultural prices continued a steady upward trend in July, rising 0.2 percent. Over the past 12 months, nonagricultural prices increased 4.6 percent, and overall export prices rose a similar 4.4 percent.

The advance in nonagricultural prices was again led by rising prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, which increased 0.6 percent. The latter increase was led by higher prices for chemicals, plastic materials, and fuels. However, lower metals prices were an offsetting factor and prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials rose at a smaller rate than in the previous three months, when the increases ranged between 1.7 and 2.0 percent. The index increased 13.5 percent for the year ended in July. Prices for consumer goods and automotive vehicles rose 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, contributing to the overall increase in nonagricultural prices. Consumer goods prices increased 2.5 percent over the past year, while prices for automotive vehicles advanced 1.6 percent.

Capital goods prices fell a modest 0.1 percent for the second consecutive month, but increased 0.3 percent over the past 12 months."

Thursday, August 10, 2006

The 3 Majors Gained Ground On Cheaper Crude Oil

The 3 major indexes advanced today as crude for September delivery fell to $74 per barrel and New York Spot Gold fell by $15.50 to close @ $635.10 per ounce. 1,592,855,390 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Shares of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component American International Group (AIG) gained $1.83 to close @ $60.32.

Treasury Budget for July, 2006

The U.S. Treasury Budget numbers for July, 2006 were released today:

Consensus: -$42,000,000,000Actual: -$33,200,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the monthly balance on the U.S. federal government's "books" and is compiled by The Treasury Department. A positive number represents a surplus, while a negative represents a deficit.

The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 5, 2006

The U.S. Department of Labor this morning released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on August 5, 2006:

Consensus: 315,000Actual: 319,000

The above figures represent the number of new claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

International Trade Balance Level for June, 2006

The International Trade Balance Level for June, 2006 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Consensus: $ -64,500,000,000 Actual: $ -64,800,000,000

The "actual" figure above represents the balance of trade--imports vs. exports--between the United States and all other countries, and includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "consensus" is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

The 3 Majors Closed Lower Making It Four Consecutives Days of Negative Numbers

The 3 major indexes closed lower for the fourth consecutive day, on continued bearishness related to interest rates and a slowing economy. 1,709,150,140 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

All 3 Majors Declined On Concerns Related to Future Monetary Policy Decisions by The Fed

The 3 major indexes closed lower today as investors worried that the Fed may need to raise rates later this year, which may in turn hurt corporate earnings. 1,615,381,810 shares were traded @ The New York Stock Exchange®.

Shares of Aleris International Inc. (ARS) gained $11.46 (+27.69%) to close @ $52.85.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Update for August, 2006

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) today released an update for the 2006 Atlantic basin hurricane season:

Probability of an Above-Normal Hurricane Season: 75%

Probability of a Near-Normal Hurricane Season: 20%

Predicted # of Named Storms: 12 to 15

Predicted # of Named Storms Becoming Hurricanes: 7 to 9

Predicted # of Named Storms Becoming Major Hurricanes: 3 to 5

The Atlantic basin has produced 3 named storms so far this season--Alberto, Beryl, and Chris--but, so far this season, no named storm has become a major hurricane. With 3 named storms having come and gone so far, the predicted number of major hurricanes (major = category 3 to 5) for this season is now at 3-4.

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