Smartpads: The Next Big (Little) Thing

Whether or not Apple reinvents the tablet PC, it's an idea whose time has finally come.

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By now you have probably heard of Apple's much-rumored, almost mythical tablet, which the blogosphere has been buzzing about for the last couple of months.

Tech bloggers have hypothesized that it is perhaps an oversized iPod touch or some kind of mini-tablet PC. Since Apple never talks about anything until the company actually announces it, guesses about Apple's next big product release tend to be based on little more than conjecture.

But at the same time, we can't discount this particular guess, especially as more "details" about some kind of Apple tablet stream in from "Asian manufacturers" who are "involved" with something of this nature. Where there is smoke there is usually fire, suggesting that perhaps something new is being designed within the Apple universe.

While an Apple mini-tablet has been the main focus of the blogosphere, the reality is that there has been a lot of work going on in this space, and the industry even has its own name for these devices: "smartpads." Although the definition of a smartpad is still evolving, they are consumer-focused mini-tablets that sport a 9- or 10-inch screen, can connect to the Internet via Wi-Fi and perhaps a cellular network, and can also handle music and video.

The history of this idea can be traced back to Intel and Microsoft's original vision of what they called a mobile Internet device, or MID, of which various models have been brought to market over the last few years. One example was the OQO , which had a 5-inch touch screen and used Windows XP as its operating system. This particular version was aimed at vertical business markets, and was pretty pricey at around $2,500 when it first came out. But Intel and Microsoft wanted MIDs for consumers, and they began working with CE companies like Samsung, which gave us the Q1. That device had a 7-inch touch screen and was about $1,200 when it came out in 2006.

Of course, you can go back even farther and argue that the tablet idea itself was the brainchild of Bill Gates, who told me in 2000 that he believed the tablet form factor was the ideal mobile platform, representing the future of portable computing. However, most PC tablets have only found success in vertical markets like medical and police and fire. Even the laptop convertibles, which are aimed at mainstream users, have only been mildly successful to date. (Actually, you can go back even further than that if you add the Grid Computer and the original Apple Newton and Palm PDA.)

But there is a renewed effort to perfect this tablet concept, and this time it is coming on the heels of the major success of netbooks. These mini laptops have become the darling of consumers who want smaller, lighter mobile devices that are much more portable then traditional laptops, as well as cheaper. And while netbooks have been a big hit, many in the industry think that a mini-tablet or smartpad with a touch screen might be an even better mobile platform for anytime-anywhere Internet browsing, media consumption, and perhaps even simple productivity.

The first generation of tablet PCs and MIDs were saddled with processors that, while designed for portability, were not really optimized for low power and extended battery life, nor for serious graphics and media applications. But thanks to a new generation of low-voltage processors, such as Intel's Atom, nVidia's Tegra, and Qualcomm's SnapDragon, the possibility of creating a mini-tablet or smartpad with good battery life and media-processing capabilities could soon become a reality.

One of the processors leading the charge in this smartpad space is nVidia's Tegra; I have especially been watching its use in the new Zuneplayer from Microsoft. If you look at the Zune, it looks a lot like the AppleiPod touch in that it has a 3.2-inch touch screen and is optimized for music and video. And it has a new UI and is connected to the new Zune back-end service engine, which is similar to iTunes from Apple. It is not a stretch here to think that Microsoft could create a 9- or 10-inch version using Tegra, and create Microsoft's own mini-tablet platform and enter the smartpad race. The Tegra would be a great processor for this new type of smartpad since it has low voltage requirements and HD graphics capability built in.

Qualcomm's SnapDragon processor is also optimized for use in something like this, since it is already being used in netbooks; look for it to push into the smartpad space soon as well. And of course, Intel's Atom processor, which dominates the netbook market today, will get better graphics support with a newer version later this year and I expect it to be used in smartpads by Q1 2010.

While netbooks currently represent the real growth in the mobile computing market, it is unclear whether a mini-tablet or smartpad could also catch the public's fancy. However, if you think about the smartpad form factor, it would clearly be even more portable than a netbook. If the manufacturers get the smartpad interface and functionality rightoptimizing it use as a portable media device as well as a rich Internet browsing systemit just might become the next big thing in the mobile market.

So, with this in mind, I have some predictions:

1. If Apple should enter this market, I would expect the company to deliver a solution that creatively encompasses all of Apple's rich ecosystem of OS, UI, design, and back-end services and literally define what the smartpad is all about.

2. This will force the rest of the industry to scramble to try and create something similar, so as not to let Apple have this market to itself. As stated earlier, there is already a lot of development work under way with smartpads, and any response to Apple could come much faster this time then with the iPods and iPhone.

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3. While these would be touch-screen smartpads, imagine if they also had the option of attaching a Bluetooth keyboard. If you could prop up a smartpad's 9- or 10-inch screen and then use a wireless keyboard with it, it could also become a viable productivity tool.

One more thing: If these devices are successful, it could have some unintended consequences. For instance, if smartpads allow for easy ebook reading,they could actually supplant devices like Amazon's Kindle. Already, many ebooks are moving to more open electronic publishing formats, and I fully expect smartpads to support these e-reading formats from the beginning. If that happens, standalone ebook readers could be forced to become vertical devices, used more specifically for textbooks and maintenance manuals.

It is far from certain that smartpads will be a winning platform, but the technology is starting to look like it could deliver serious mobile computing capabilities. The new processors deliver low voltage and better graphics and video capabilities. There are new screens being made that are optimized for low power draw. And there are operating systems and services that are already in place to deliver a rich Internet experience, along with the ability to play music, movies, and even facilitate productivity. The next big thing could just be something little like a smartpad!

Tim Bajarin is one of the leading analysts working in the technology industry today. He is president of Creative Strategies (www.creativestrategies.com), a research company that produces strategy research reports for 50 to 60 companies annuallya roster that includes semiconductor and PC companies, as well as those in telecommunications, consumer electronics, and media. Customers have included AMD, Apple, Dell, HP, Intel, and Microsoft, among many others. You can e-mail him directly attim@creativestrategies.com.

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba and numerous others.
Mr. Bajarin is known as a concise, futuristic analyst, credited with predicting the desktop publishing revolution three years before it...
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