Figure 14: Global mean surface
air temperature anomalies from 1,000 year control simulations with three different
climate models, – Hadley, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hamburg, compared
to the recent instrumental record. No model control simulation shows a trend in
surface air temperature as large as the observed trend. If internal variability
is correct in these models, the recent warming is likely not due to variability
produced within the climate system alone. [Based on Figure
12.1]