Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Why Putin Can’t Allow Ukraine to Succeed and Why the West Must Make Sure It Does

Paul
Goble

Staunton, May 17 – In the course of
a wide-ranging discussion in advance of the release of his new book on Russia
now, Moscow economist Vladislav Inozemtsev provides perhaps the most compelling
argument yet on why Vladimir Putin will do everything he can to ensure that
Ukraine fails in its efforts to become a modern state and why the West must
make sure it does.

“Only Ukraine,” he says, could play
that role and “’shake up’ Russia;” but it could do so only if it were to be
rapidly “transformed into a developed Western country, become a member of the
European Union by 2025, and thus become ‘a new Jerusalem’” showing the way to the
future for former Soviet republics.

But so far, Inozemtsev continues, the
Kremlin has been “lucky,” in that in Kyiv, one kleptocrat has replaced another in
power while “talented young people flee” and there is “complete stagnation as
far as reforms are concerned.” And growing Ukrainian Russophobia which Putin
has sponsored by his actions works to the Kremlin leader’s advantage.

As a result, for Russians as Putin
intends, “Ukraine “has become an example of how not to act – and this is the
most powerful factor which in our days strengthens the Russian regime,” the
commentator says, adding that in his view, “all the members of the Kyiv council
of ministers should be awarded order ‘For services to the [Russian] fatherland’
of various degrees.”

At a time when many in Western
capitals seem to have grown tired of the Ukrainian crisis brought on by the
Russian Anschluss of Crimea and invasion of the Donbass and want to focus on Moscow
alone, Inozemtsev’s argument is critical: If the West really wants Russia to
change in the ways it says it does, then the West must make sure Ukraine
succeeds.

That won’t be easy, but the Moscow
commentator has performed a useful service by reminding everyone that what is
at stake in Ukraine is not just Ukraine and its heroic people but the fate of
Russia and much else.