12 June 2015

Reassessing the Orioles' Offseason Moves

At 29-30, the Orioles are closing in on a return to .500. Things didn't look so good last week, but the return of Matt Wieters has helped to right the ship (for now, at least).

Are the O's contenders? Buyers or sellers? At four games back in the American League East (with the first-place Yankees coming to town) and two games out of a wild card slot, they're certainly not ready to throw in the towel. But then again, nearly every AL team is in play for a playoff spot. And just about every AL team has serious flaws. It's unclear how good the O's are. But hey, the O's are on a roll. So enjoy it.

So let's focus on a number of the notable moves/decisions the team made (with the reminder that hindsight is 20/20). How do they look right now?

Wei-Yin Chen's $4.75 million option exercised
No-brainer. And no issue.

Darren O'Day's $4.25 million option exercised

Same thing. Easy choice.

Wesley Wright signed for $1.7 million

Wright only threw 1 2/3 innings for the Orioles before injuring his shoulder. He hasn't pitched since April 10. Wright's signing made less sense considering the Orioles both tendered Brian Matusz a contract and also did not trade him (more on that below), but it's hard to be mad at this signing. Wright is due back in a few weeks, most likely. That could present an interesting roster showdown between Wright and Matusz.

Everth Cabrera signed for $2.4 million

The Orioles recently designated Cabrera for assignment, so no, this move did not go according to plan. The rationale at the time was that he was under team control through 2016 and he had an option left, so inking Cabrera made sense. But he surpassed the five-year service time mark early in the season, allowing him to refuse an assignment to the minor leagues. It didn't help that he posted a 31 wRC+ in 105 plate appearances.

Re-signing Delmon Young for $2.25 million

Young has essentially been a replacement-level player, posting a subpar 86 wRC+ but playing much better defense than anticipated (0.8 UZR, +4 DRS). He's also played much more in the outfield than maybe even Buck Showalter planned, thanks in part to the temporary emergence of Jimmy Paredes and also the general blah-ness of his fellow corner outfielders. His deal has been fine.

Snider's 93 wRC+ has underwhelmed, and he was supposed to provide more power (only a .079 ISO this season). He is only making $2.1 million this year, though, and is under team control through next season. His defensive ability in the outfield doesn't look great at times, but he also has a UZR of 3 and a DRS of +6. It's not ideal to have given up much of anything considering how he's played. But this is far from a disastrous move. Overall, he's also been pretty similar to Nick Markakis (Snider: 0.4 fWAR, 1.0 bWAR; Markakis: 1.1 fWAR, 0.8 bWAR) -- without the large contract.

Tendering Brian Matusz for $3.2 million

Overall, Matusz was not good last season. He's followed that up by being pretty terrible so far in 2015. In 18 1/3 innings, his strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his already low groundball rate is even lower. It was questionable for the O's to tender him a contract at all, and considering he was a possible trade option before the season started, the Orioles really must not have gotten many offers at all (because they shouldn't have been seeking much in return). As a Super Two player, Matusz has a fourth arbitration year remaining. So if he's not traded this season or after, he's a pretty good bet to get non-tendered.

Tendering Tommy Hunter for $4.65 million

Paying Hunter nearly $5 million is not ideal, but it's at least somewhat better than Matusz's contract. He's been more useful than Matusz, though for such a hard thrower he doesn't get that many strikeouts (6.5 K/9). It helps that his walk rate has dropped as well (1 BB/9). It's also smart that the Orioles are using him in lower leverage situations than in years past.

Tendering Steve Pearce for $3.7 million

Pearce has not hit well at all (more on this in a potential future post by another Depot writer), yet he's still offered defensive contributions with his versatile play at first base, second base, and the outfield. Even if he's played poorly, there was nothing wrong with bringing him back after an insanely good 2014.

Tendering Alejandro De Aza for $5 million
De Aza took on the Orioles in arbitration and lost, and things never really got better for him in 2015. Despite playing surprisingly well for the O's after being acquired last season, he posted a 72 wRC+ and quickly fell out of favor. And then he was designated for assignment and then shipped to the Red Sox. In hindsight it was a misguided move, but it's hardly unreasonable to spend $5 million on a decent corner outfielder who's going to receive plenty of work. That is, at least, until he doesn't play well.

Most of these look fine, except for maybe two: Davis ($12 million) and Norris ($8.8 million). Davis has been up and down, but he does have a 115 wRC+. He's been striking out a ton, but the power has also rebounded enough to make him useful. He certainly hasn't been a disaster like in 2014. But Norris not only has been awful (8.63 ERA, 4.84 FIP in 32 1/3 innings), but he blocked Kevin Gausman from a rotation spot to open the season. Part of Norris's struggles is illness-related, which is unfortunate; at least he seems to be healthy now. But with Gausman, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson behind him, the O's should consider dealing Norris if he's able to string a couple of decent starts together (whether they're in a race for a playoff spot or not).

Claimed Ryan Lavarnway from Cubs
Nope.

Two Rule 5 acquisitions: Logan Verrett and Jason Garcia

Verrett never pitched for the O's and was claimed off waivers by the Rangers before the season. But Garcia did make the O's opening day roster, and predictably the 22-year-old who had never pitched above A-ball was terrible (5.93 ERA, 7.65 FIP in 13 2/3 innings). He's currently on the disabled list with an injured shoulder, and it's unclear if he'll pitch for the Orioles again this season (or beyond). The O's like to utilize the Rule 5 draft to pick up useful players (Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland), but this move hasn't worked.

(I think I covered most of the noteworthy signings and moves, though I know I left some things out. Feel free to chime in.)

-----

If you want to get upset with the O's for not re-signing Cruz, that's fine. I disagree with that stance, but sure, they could use his bat this season. Every team could. The decisions to not re-sign Markakis and Miller also frustrated fans, but they also seem like sound choices.

The Snider move, so far, hasn't worked out as planned. The Cabrera signing did not go well. Tendering contracts to all of Norris, Matusz, Hunter, and De Aza definitely doesn't look great, and perhaps the O's could have used that money to shore up the roster in other ways. Nori Aoki, for example, has been a tremendous signing for the Giants. But for the most part, the O's are still competing, and they don't have any truly horrible contracts on the books (unless you count Ubaldo Jimenez, who has two years remaining after this one, but who has looked competent this year).

Maybe the Orioles should have spent more money. It's easy to say that, though it does seem clear that they are working with a maxed out budget. They'll surely have more free-up money to work with this upcoming offseason, and it should be intriguing how they choose to spend -- and if Duquette will still be around to make those judgments. But they're around .500, and with a few breaks and a move here or there, they could reasonably return to the playoffs. But we're a long way from that point.

Yeah I remember signing Aoki seemed like a logical option, especially given his propensity to reach base. When Snider was acquired, I figured it was pretty much a wash. 60 games in, the O's kinda blew that one.

Where's the additional remarks on the low risk signings? Those are the ones that seem to be paying off - especially Chaz Roe and Nolan Reimold. Guys like Ryan Webb, Brad Brach, and Chaz Roe are interchangeable but not easy to find (just look at Atlanta's bullpen for the unlucky hits). Oliver Drake wasn't bad and he'll be back - a little control and he'll be a lock down reliever. Navarro is obviously better than Cabrera although I thought Cabrera had potential. If you really want to shore up the bullpen, look at Mychal Givens. When Schoop comes back, the team will be at full strength. All of a sudden the Orioles' defense has beciome elite again with Hardy's return. If Hardy and Pearce revert to norm with the bats then this team WILL win. I do agree that Norris seems to be blocking better starting candidates. Matusz did not help today - pretty much blew the game for Wright.

Contact Camden Depot

We look forward to your questions as well as any suggestions you may have for us.

Additionally, we are always looking for new contributors, so if you want to write for the Depot then e-mail us with an example column that you think fits the tone of the site.

Contributors

Jon Shepherd - Founder/Editor@CamdenDepotStarted Camden Depot in the summer of 2007. By day, a toxicologist and by night a baseball analyst. His work is largely located on this site, but may pop up over at places like ESPN or Baseball Prospectus.

Matt Kremnitzer - Assistant Editor@mattkremnitzerMatt joined Camden Depot in early 2013. His work has been featured on ESPN SweetSpot and MASNsports.com.

Patrick Dougherty - Writer@pjd0014Patrick joined Camden Depot in the fall of 2015, following two years writing for Baltimore Sports & Life. He is interested in data analysis and forecasting, and cultivates those skills with analysis aimed at improving the performance of the Orioles (should they ever listen).

Nate Delong - Writer@OriolesPGNate created and wrote for Orioles Proving Ground prior to joining Camden Depot in the middle of 2013. His baseball resume includes working as a scorer for Baseball Info Solutions and as a Video Intern for the Baltimore Orioles. His actual resume is much less interesting.

Matt Perez - Writer@FanOfLaundryMatt joined Camden Depot after the 2013 season. He is a data analyst/programmer in his day job and uses those skills to write about the Orioles and other baseball related topics.

Joe Reisel - WriterJoe has followed the Norfolk Tides now for 20 seasons. He currently serves as a Tides GameDay datacaster for milb.com and as a scorer for Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). He is computer programmer/analyst by day.

Joe Wantz - WriterJoe is a baseball and Orioles fanatic. In his spare time, he got his PhD in political science and works in data and analytics in Washington DC.