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As the U.S. and China negotiate on trade, Beijing is working overtime, pulling multiple levers to steady its lagging economy and boost markets. “China is probably the most serious one, and the one with the most ramifications for the rest of the world because China growth at 5 percent is $600 billion GDP growth in the world.” Even with a slowing U.S. economy, Williams said it’s not clear the Chinese will have a much stronger bargaining position. Anecdotally there are some signs the Chinese econom

As the U.S. and China negotiate on trade, Beijing is working overtime, pulling multiple levers to steady its lagging economy and boost markets.

China’s central bank on Wednesday injected a record $83 billion into the financial system, seeking to avoid a cash crunch. The move is the latest in a series of stimulus efforts by Chinese officials, who have been working to assure investors that more spending and other types of policy support would be forthcoming.

Premier Li Keqiang Wednesday acknowledged the economy faces difficulties and said the government aims to keep growth within a reasonable range through further stimulus.

In some regards, that could tip the scale eventually in trade talks. Trump administration officials have said China’s weak economy is a factor that has brought Beijing’s negotiators to the table. But economists expect China’s economy to stabilize by the middle of the year, around the time some expect U.S. growth to head lower, to a rate of just under 2 percent after a first half pace of closer to 2.5 percent.

“China has shifted gears, introducing a steady drumbeat of new stimulus measures. Meanwhile US fiscal policy is stuck in gridlock and the shutdown is actually causing a modest tightening of policy,” wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists in a recent note. The Fed has shifted from rate-hiking mode to a more cautious stance, “but it probably needs to see clearer signs of weakness before it cuts rates.”

Weaker U.S. growth is coming as the effects of the massive tax cuts and other stimulus begins to fade, leaving the Trump administration with fewer bullets. With the Fed’s easier posture, markets now see the potential for no rate hikes at all out across the next year.

“Now you have a slowdown and I think it’s probably a slowdown as opposed to you’re on the way to a deep recession,” said J. P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. “China is probably the most serious one, and the one with the most ramifications for the rest of the world because China growth at 5 percent is $600 billion GDP growth in the world.”

Dimon, speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, said China is able to push policies in a way the U.S. cannot.

“The thing about China is they have the wherewithal,” he said. “They can macro manage in a way you can’t do in the United States. There’s seven people that control the nation.”

China’s ability to push its policies “kind of works. It will work for another five years, 10 years,” Dimon said. “They’re trying to work that through to keep jobs, peace, prosperity. Now my view is they’ll accomplish that in the next couple of years.”

Source: Capital Economics

Whether China’s ready use of stimulus will help lead it to a strong posture in trade talks has yet to be seen.

“The direct impact of tariffs on China’s economy so far, is hard to identify,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. Williams said Chinese exports to the U.S. have held up fairly well, a trend that could change, but U.S. exports to China have fallen off sharply.

Even with a slowing U.S. economy, Williams said it’s not clear the Chinese will have a much stronger bargaining position. “I’m a little bit skeptical,” he said, noting that Chinese exports don’t contribute meaningfully to the U.S. economy except for some sectors like soybean farmers.

“They are not a big reason why the U.S. economy is slowing. I don’t think it gives China a lot of leverage,” Williams said. “What might matter more to President Trump is whether the S&P and the U.S. stock market is falling sharply. That might make the U.S. side more eager to cut a trade deal.”

Anecdotally there are some signs the Chinese economy is getting hit. Apple, for instance, blamed a trade-related slowing in China for a drop off in iPhone sales.

Barclays economists said the 0.6 percent decline in import prices in December had to do with a decline in energy and imported inflation pressures. Chinese firms may also have responded to trade pressures.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that in response to tariffs from the US, Chinese firms may be lowering prices in order to remain competitive in the US market,” the economists noted. “This would be consistent with monthly import price patterns recently — import prices from China were rising at a modest pace in early 2018, but started to turn negative in the middle of the summer, when trade tensions and tariffs intensified.”

Williams said the stimulus being offered by Beijing is smaller than during other periods when the government stepped in.

“There’s been a steady drip of announcements but I think it’s important to note that they don’t add up to all that much, certainly in comparison with previous bouts of stimulus we’ve seen from China’s government. This time they are not going all in,” he said.

“If we compare it with what they did in 2015/2016, the fiscal and monetary stimulus we’ve had so far is perhaps a quarter of the size so far. They’re still announcing things every couple of days. It’s still adding up.” Williams estimated the stimulus could be half the size of the last one, but a quarter size the stimulus during the financial crisis.

“I think China is doing what China does best,” said Joseph Lupton, global economist at J. P. Morgan Chase. “They inundate you with a ton of headlines and that’s going to provide an extra level of calm to the slowing that’s taking place. I don’t want to water it down. I think what they’re doing…will have an effect on the economy, but it’s not going to have that type of affect after the financial crisis when they really did bring out the bazooka and boosted growth over the next couple of years.”

Lupton said he ultimately expects the U.S. and China to work out a trade deal. But while China may compromise on intellectual property and other U.S. demands, it’s probably not going to give on its program aimed at growing in areas of new technologies, ‘Made in China 2025.’

Apple’s latest iPhone models are facing huge discounts in China as retailers try to sell the struggling devices. That comes as the top-of-the-line Apple smartphones have posted poor China sales on what experts say are too-high prices for the world’s largest smartphone market and a lack of innovative features compared to local competitors like Huawei. Other third-party sellers on the site had the devices for even cheaper, offering flash sales to try to unload iPhones. Sunion, an Apple re-seller,

That comes as the top-of-the-line Apple smartphones have posted poor China sales on what experts say are too-high prices for the world’s largest smartphone market and a lack of innovative features compared to local competitors like Huawei. The technology giant itself acknowledged earlier this month that unexpectedly low sales in the Chinese market would likely lead to worse-than-anticipated first quarter revenues.

One of the most recent iPhone cost cuts in the country came from Suning, a large Chinese retailer, which changed the price of the 128GB version of the iPhone XR from 6,999 yuan ($1,036) to 5,799 yuan ($858) — a 1,200 yuan ($178) discount.

Other third-party sellers on the site had the devices for even cheaper, offering flash sales to try to unload iPhones. One seller had a 256GB version of the iPhone XS Max, Apple’s most premium device, for 9,699 yuan ($1,436), way below the U.S. firm’s official selling price of 10,999 yuan ($1,628) for that smartphone.

Still, that remains more expensive than in the U.S., where the same phone would sell for $1,249, according to the Apple website.

And that’s just on one site. Other retailers in China are also putting their iPhones on sale. Sunion, an Apple re-seller, was advertising 700 yuan off for both the 128GB and 256GB versions of the iPhone XR. E-commerce site Pinduoduo, which allows third-parties to sell products, also had hefty discounts across all of the latest iPhone models.

Apple’s issues in China are down to two major factors, experts and local consumers say: It got its pricing wrong, and it has failed to introduce features to excite consumers in a forward-thinking technology market. Now, analysts said, competitors have taken market share in the premium smartphone space.

“If anything, cooling factory gate inflation will strengthen the case for the central bank to do more to ease financial pressure on industrial firms including by cutting benchmark lending rates.” “Rapidly falling inflation, especially factory-gate PPI inflation, is further evidence that China’s economy is slowing at a worrying pace,” Nomura economists wrote in a note on Thursday. The slower inflation will give Beijing “plenty of room to loosen (monetary) policy,” said Evans-Pritchard in a note o

“If anything, cooling factory gate inflation will strengthen the case for the central bank to do more to ease financial pressure on industrial firms including by cutting benchmark lending rates.”

China’s Consumer Price Index — a gauge of prices for goods and services — rose 1.9 percent on year in December, lower than economists’ expectations of a 2.1 percent growth, according to a Reuters’ poll. The CPI rose 2.2 percent in November.

The latest data brought China’s PPI for January to December 2018 a rise of 3.5 percent, while full-year CPI was up 2.1 percent — below Beijing’s target of 3 percent in consumer inflation for the entire year.

“Rapidly falling inflation, especially factory-gate PPI inflation, is further evidence that China’s economy is slowing at a worrying pace,” Nomura economists wrote in a note on Thursday.

The slump in producer inflation suggests corporate earnings would fall in the coming months, they added.

Analysts say the latest data could lead to further easing measures by the government as it seeks to stimulate the economy.

The slower inflation will give Beijing “plenty of room to loosen (monetary) policy,” said Evans-Pritchard in a note on Thursday. “If anything, cooling factory gate inflation will strengthen the case for the central bank to do more to ease financial pressure on industrial firms including by cutting benchmark lending rates.”

“Falling inflation leaves more room for Beijing to roll out more aggressive policies to bolster growth and could lead to lower interbank rates and bond yields,” the Nomura analysts added in their note.

Economic data from the world’s second-largest economy are being closely watched for signs of damage inflicted by the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

The tariff wars are showing up in a wider U.S. trade deficit, and have taken some of the steam out of third quarter growth that remains formidable. This week, economists trimmed third quarter growth forecasts, after reports of a wider than expected trade deficit and weaker equipment investment. The average third quarter forecast in CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update survey of economists fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent. Economists at J.P. Morgan recently cut their third quarter fore

The tariff wars are showing up in a wider U.S. trade deficit, and have taken some of the steam out of third quarter growth that remains formidable.

This week, economists trimmed third quarter growth forecasts, after reports of a wider than expected trade deficit and weaker equipment investment. The average third quarter forecast in CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid Update survey of economists fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 percent.

Trade data and durable goods reports were released Thursday morning, as was the final reading on second quarter GDP, which grew by 4.2 percent.

“We saw an acceleration of activity in the second quarter. Exports surged in Q2, and now they’ve fallen off the table in Q3,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont.

Stanley said it appears the export data was impacted by activity around the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and the anticipated retaliation of tariffs on U.S. exports to China. He cut his forecast for third quarter to 2.8 percent from 3 percent.

With the world’s two largest economies opening a new front in their multibillion dollar bilateral trade dispute, the risk has risen sharply that the U.S. will eventually slap tariffs on all imports from China, Goldman Sachs said in a recent note. That growing possibility has concerned a number of economy watchers.

Economists at J.P. Morgan recently cut their third quarter forecast from 3.5 percent to growth of 3 percent. They said the biggest contribution to their forecast reduction was a widening of the trade deficit in goods to a near record $75.8 billion in August, from July’s $72 billion. They expect net exports will subtract about 2.1 percentage points from GDP growth in the quarter.

The 1.6 percent decline in exports was due in large part to a 9.5 percent drop in shipments of food, feeds and beverages. While there are not yet specifics, economists expect that could reflect a reduction in soybean exports to China.

“The widening in the August trade deficit reflected both a 1.5% decline in exports and 0.7 percent increase in imports. Both of these may have been impacted by the ongoing trade conflict. Soybean exports were reported to be front-loaded ahead of Chinese tariffs earlier in the year and now agricultural exports have been coming off hard the last two months, dragging down overall exports,” the JP Morgan economists wrote.

“Meanwhile import growth has been picking up lately, which could reflect efforts by importers to get goods in the country before higher US tariffs kick in. The possible stockpiling of imported goods ahead of the tariffs may also be a factor explaining the robust $65 billion estimated annual pace of real inventory accumulation in this quarter,” they wrote.

The J. P. Morgan economists said that is also why inventories grew more at wholesalers and at retailers than at domestic factories, which saw a 0.4 percent decline. “Pull-forward of imports into warehouses may persist for the duration of the year, as importers may surmise that the trade conflict with China won’t be resolved in time to head off the scheduled bump-up in tariffs at year-end,” they wrote.

Stanley said so far, he doesn’t see any evidence that the impact from tariffs will be sustained in the trade flows. He also expects growth to remain strong at about 3 percent for this year.

“Consumer and business inestment areas are still quite storng. It’s just these inventory and trade swings that have pushed the headline number a bit, but that’s not indicative of the underlying health of the economy,” Stanley said. “It could be somewhat disruptive but the underlying economy has a tremendous amount of strength.”

The part of durable goods that most reflects business investment did weaken in August. Core nondefense, ex-aircraft capital goods shipment growth was just 0.1 percent last month, and the closely watched core orders fell by 0.5 percent.

“Real business spending on capital equipment—estimated using core capital goods shipments—appears to be increasing at about a 3.0 percent pace this quarter, the slowest growth since late 2016,” JP Morgan economists wrote.

“On the plus side—at least for Q3 GDP—inventory growth now appears to be adding even more to current-quarter growth, about offsetting the trade drag.”

A majority of mainland Chinese investors expect the battered local stock market to rise over the next 12 months, according to a J.P. Morgan Asset Management survey released Monday. The Shanghai composite is one of the worst performing stock indexes in the world this year. In June, the index fell 20 percent from a recent high, or into bear market territory. Despite the Shanghai market’s drop this summer, 73 percent of roughly 200 investment professionals in Shanghai and Beijing said in August the

A majority of mainland Chinese investors expect the battered local stock market to rise over the next 12 months, according to a J.P. Morgan Asset Management survey released Monday.

The Shanghai composite is one of the worst performing stock indexes in the world this year. In June, the index fell 20 percent from a recent high, or into bear market territory. It remains more than 15 percent lower for 2018, hit by investors’ worries about a slowing Chinese economy, authorities’ efforts to reduce reliance on debt-fueled growth and rising trade tensions with the U.S.

In contrast, U.S. stocks are at record highs.

Despite the Shanghai market’s drop this summer, 73 percent of roughly 200 investment professionals in Shanghai and Beijing said in August they predicted positive returns for domestic stocks, known as A shares, the J.P. Morgan survey showed.

Investor predictions for the performance of Chinese stocks over the next 12 months

A senior administration official told CNBC on Friday that there was “zero” engagement between the Trump administration and China as the two countries ratchet up trade tensions. The official said that there had been “one call in the past few days,” and that it resolved nothing. When asked what level of engagement the two countries were maintaining, the official made the shape of a zero with his hand. China threatened to levy tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods on Friday if the Trump administrati

A senior administration official told CNBC on Friday that there was “zero” engagement between the Trump administration and China as the two countries ratchet up trade tensions.

The official said that there had been “one call in the past few days,” and that it resolved nothing. When asked what level of engagement the two countries were maintaining, the official made the shape of a zero with his hand.

The market had jumped earlier in the week on reports that the U.S. and China were re-engaging. While the official acknowledged a high-level phone call had taken place in recent days, he said it had provided no resolution and followed a monthlong period of radio silence between the countries.

Earlier in the day, Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told reporters that there had been communications between the two countries at the “highest levels,” but that talks had “stalled” in recent days.

“I have been involved in a lot of those U.S.-China talks, but not recently, because there haven’t been any recently, I don’t know what they are doing,” Kudlow told reporters on the North Lawn of the White House.

China threatened to levy tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods on Friday if the Trump administration went through with its own planned tariffs on Chinese imports. On Wednesday, Trump ordered his administration to consider raising the proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent. The administration had earlier been considering tariffs of 10 percent.

The official said there was no particular catalyst for the president’s decision to have his administration consider raising the amount of the tariffs, but noted that Trump believes China’s responses to U.S. actions have been “unsatisfactory.”

Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi awarded founder and CEO Lei Jun about $1.5 billion in stock, one of the biggest corporate paydays in history, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. The company gave Lei the stock to “reward him for his contributions” ahead of its IPO, The Journal reported, citing a document filed this week. Xiaomi hopes to raise up to $6.1 billion in its Hong Kong IPO, which the Journal reported would value Lei’s stock award between $1.38 billion and $1.79 billion. Xiaomi’s IPO

The company gave Lei the stock to “reward him for his contributions” ahead of its IPO, The Journal reported, citing a document filed this week.

Xiaomi hopes to raise up to $6.1 billion in its Hong Kong IPO, which the Journal reported would value Lei’s stock award between $1.38 billion and $1.79 billion.

A person familiar with the situation told the Journal that the award wasn’t tied to future performance metrics and that it had been unanimously approved by shareholders. Lei has not previously received bonuses, the person added.

The practice of awarding founders extravagant stock packages is not uncommon — Tesla and JD.com both approved substantial stock-based compensation packages for their founders — but the Journal noted it is rare that a package is not predicated on a stock’s performance.

Xiaomi’s IPO will price next week, prior to the the company’s July 9 listing in Hong Kong.

When Justin Fong was 14 years old, though, he was attending his fourth consecutive Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting as a shareholder. At the 2004 meeting, the California teenager had a question for Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger. “I read in a book that you prefer talking to young people about life and financial concepts because we still have time to implement them,” Fong said. Buffett responded by noting that he actually does enjoy spending time with youn

Teenagers are often preoccupied with getting good grades, preparing for college and having fun. When Justin Fong was 14 years old, though, he was attending his fourth consecutive Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting as a shareholder.

At the 2004 meeting, the California teenager had a question for Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger. “I read in a book that you prefer talking to young people about life and financial concepts because we still have time to implement them,” Fong said. “Can you please share some of the concepts with us?”

Buffett responded by noting that he actually does enjoy spending time with young people and answering their questions. Here are the three pieces of life and financial advice Buffett and Munger shared with the teen shareholder.

When Justin Fong was 14 years old, though, he was attending his fourth consecutive Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting as a shareholder. At the 2004 meeting, the California teenager had a question for Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger. “I read in a book that you prefer talking to young people about life and financial concepts because we still have time to implement them,” Fong said. Buffett responded by noting that he actually does enjoy spending time with youn

Teenagers are often preoccupied with getting good grades, preparing for college and having fun. When Justin Fong was 14 years old, though, he was attending his fourth consecutive Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting as a shareholder.

At the 2004 meeting, the California teenager had a question for Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger. “I read in a book that you prefer talking to young people about life and financial concepts because we still have time to implement them,” Fong said. “Can you please share some of the concepts with us?”

Buffett responded by noting that he actually does enjoy spending time with young people and answering their questions. Here are the three pieces of life and financial advice Buffett and Munger shared with the teen shareholder.

One of the world’s largest phone brands is preparing for one of the largest IPOs in years — but it may find it very difficult to sell its products in the U.S.You might not have heard of the Chinese company Xiaomi, which filed for an initial public offering in Hong Kong on Thursday, but it’s huge globally. It’s the fourth-largest seller of smartphones in the world, according to Gartner, behind Samsung, Apple and Huawei. Its IPO could raise $10 billion, potentially valuing the company at $100 bill

One of the world’s largest phone brands is preparing for one of the largest IPOs in years — but it may find it very difficult to sell its products in the U.S.

You might not have heard of the Chinese company Xiaomi, which filed for an initial public offering in Hong Kong on Thursday, but it’s huge globally.

It’s the fourth-largest seller of smartphones in the world, according to Gartner, behind Samsung, Apple and Huawei. Its IPO could raise $10 billion, potentially valuing the company at $100 billion and making it one of the largest IPOs since Alibaba.

It hopes to enter the U.S. one day, according to comments made to CNBC. Here’s why that won’t be easy.