Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://purl.umn.edu/101640

Title:

Farm Modelling for Interactive Multidisciplinary Planning of Small Grain Production Systems in the Western Cape, South Africa

Authors:

Hoffman, WillemKleynhans, Theo E.

Keywords:

whole-farm modellingexpert group discussions

Issue Date:

2011

Abstract:

Subject matter research has made many contributions to small grain production in the Western Cape
province of South Africa, but much of this focuses on single commodities and is undertaken within
conventional disciplinary boundaries (e.g. soil science, genetics, economics). The result is that the
solutions offered often have knock-on effects that are not properly accounted for by researchers.
Expert group discussions, as a research method, are suitable, firstly, for gathering information in a
meaningful manner and, secondly, to stimulate individual creativity by presenting alternative perspectives
provided by various participating experts. In support of expert group discussions, multi-period wholefarm
simulation models were developed. This type of modelling supports the accurate financial
simulation of farms, while the user-friendliness and adaptability thereof can accurately accommodate
typical farm interrelationships, and quickly measure the financial impact of suggested changes to
parameters. Suggestions made by experts during the group discussions can thus be quickly introduced
into the model. The financial implications are instantly available to prevent further exploration of nonviable
plans and to fine-tune the viable plans.
In this study, for each relatively homogeneous production area of the Western Cape, a typical farm budget
model was developed, which served as the basis for the group discussions. The budget models measure
profitability in terms of IRR (internal rate of return on capital investment) and affordability in terms of
expected cash flow. The homogeneous areas identified were Koeberg/Wellington, the Middle Swartland
and the Rooi Karoo, the Goue Rûens, Middle Rûens and Heidelberg Vlakte. For each area, the expected
impact of climate change, fluctuating product and input prices, and the possible impact of partial
conversion to bio-fuel production were evaluated in terms of expected impact on profitability. Various
area-specific strategies were identified that could enhance the profitability of grain production: most of
the strategies focused on optimising machinery usage and expanding or intensifying the livestock
enterprise.