I am a Latin America focused analyst and writer. I split my time between New York City and Mexico City. I have written feature articles on business, organized crime, politics, and culture for The Atlantic, MONOCLE, Americas Quarterly, The Nation, Lapham's Quarterly, and a number of other publications. I have worked on projects along Mexico's northern border as well as in the hills of places like Jalisco, Michoacan, and Guerrero. I have a Master's degree in International Affairs from Columbia University (SIPA). In the last few years I've had the chance to work on projects in Colombia, Mexico, Guatemala, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, India, and China. Follow me on Twitter: LatAmLENS.

Sorry Brazil, Mexico Is Better

On Saturday morning, I sat in the base lodge on Iztaccihualt, a 17,000 foot tall mountain near Mexico City and watched the final few minutes of the Mexico-Brazil gold medal Olympic soccer game. As the game ended, with Mexico ahead, the network’s cameras focused on side-by-shots of Mexican athletes jumping and celebrating together and crestfallen Brazilian players sulking alone in the grass. Reuben, my hiking guide laughed. “Where are the dancing girls, where are the sombreros?” he asked. The TV showed a crowd gathering in front of the 150 foot tall Angel of Independence monument in Mexico City. Men in black mariachi outfits held acoustic guitars and teenagers waved their country’s red, white, and green flag. “So does this mean Mexico is officially better than Brazil?” I asked. “Maybe, who knows,” Rueben said, beaming.

In an article I wrote in March for UnivisionNews, I explained that even as the country’s former President recovers his health in his long battle against cancer, Brazil’s economy, once the juggernaut of Latin America and the first letter in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) acronym, is slowing. I wrote “Brazil’s economy is expected to grow by slightly more than 3% in 2012, more or less on par with the U.S. economy, but the slowest rate of growth the country has recorded since 2003, the year after Lula first took office.” In fact, in 2011 Mexico’s economy grew by just under 4%, a statistic which pushes the U.S.’s southern neighbor ahead of Brazil in terms of economic growth.

In a recent interview, Sao Paulo based economist Luciano Sobral explained that “one aspect often misunderstood–and we can partially put the blame on the ‘BRICs-mania’–is that Brazil is no longer a high growth country, at least not at the same league as India and China.” (To see the full interview, click here.)

Likewise, a recent report from the Economist Intelligence Unit found that “Mexico seems to be emerging as the country to watch in Latin America. It outperformed Brazil in terms of economic growth in 2011 (3.9% vs 2.7%) and is forecast to do the same this year (3.7% vs 2%). Its sound macroeconomic fundamentals, solid banking sector and competitive export sector also appear to place it on a better footing to weather external headwinds.”

The Economist Intelligence Report went on to explain that “After growing by an impressive 7.6% in 2010, Brazilian growth is now lacklustre, with weakening external conditions exposing the country’s competitiveness shortcomings (including dilapidated infrastructure, rigid labour markets, skills shortages and excessive red tape).”

Moving forward, the prospects for long-term growth in both countries will depend on the successful implementation of key structural reforms. Many observers have their doubts that Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s current president, whose term ends in 2014, will be able to rally support for critical reforms. Mexico by contrast, just elected Enrique Peña Nieto, a young politician backed by a team of highly respected policy advisers. He and his party, the PRI, will have six years to implement a number of policies that could radically improve Mexico’s long-term growth potential.

In a recent conversation, Duncan Wood, a professor at ITAM, a prestigious Mexico City based university, told me that he’s confident that Peña Nieto and his team “will generate some momentum in the first three years” in office.

If that happens, Mexico, a country that in recent years has been damaged by gruesome drug cartel turf wars, will continue to compete with Brazil for the title of Latin America’s most successful major economy.

As I hiked up the foggy slopes of Iztaccihuatl, the dormant volcano outside of Mexico City, I thought about something Jorge Casteñeda, a Mexico expert and New York University professor recently wrote. In an op-ed in Spanish newspaper El Pais, he explained that he thinks that that Brazil is only better than Mexico at two things: “soccer and self-promotion.”

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If we look beyond the tabloid headlines, there’s a bigger story here than corruption and drug trafficking. http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/ In terms of corruption (and perceived corruption) both Brazil and Mexico have a ways to go. In a recent blog post Shannon O’Neil, a Mexico expert from the Council on Foreign Relations explained “The conventional U.S. wisdom today is that Mexico is a problem, and Brazil is an opportunity. The reality is that while Mexico faces serious challenges, the United States shouldn’t count it out. And, while Brazil does present real promise, there are serious issues it has yet to take on.”

She goes on to say “Mexico is also a much more friendly business environment. According the World Bank’s Doing Business index, Mexico ranks 35th globally – and the highest in Latin America — while Brazil is a woeful 127th (out of a total of 183 countries).”

Well … you can even find the most appropriate Mexico momentarily, but if the economy of a nation was not connected to natural resources; We reserve the largest aquifer in the world (Guarani), we have the pre-salt, which is being explored in its minimum capacity, we will still be hosting the World Cup 2014 and Rio 2016, Brazil’s problem is Mexico and China. Chinese products are sold to Brazil by taking advantage of Mexico treaty that Brazil has with Mexico, the product will be cheaper than the national and impossible to compete, but win Mexico earns in taxes and China, which vai win anyway. It’s just that the Brazilian government stop being slowly and take some action about it, then I want to see if Mexico’s economy will continue that good. Why Mexico is interested in strengthening trade ties with China? Because Mexico wants to become the distribution center for goods chinesas.Pelo Mexico products will come more easily in Latin America and in America Norte.Mas this does not result in income distribution, unlike what happens in Brazil, where drug traffickers were evicted from the hills and citizens begin to have improved quality of life, while the Mexicans are being murdered by drug trafficking. Finally, the Brazilian economy is consistent, while the Mexican economy grows pegged China as a distribution center for Chinese products and drug traffickers.

Even more impressive when you consider that Mexico is roughly twice as rich as Brazil on GDP/head terms. If memory serves, they out do Brazil on economic freedom rankings and international student tests too.

For more info on the latest developments in Brazil– take a look at my latest post– http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2013/06/24/are-brazils-protests-a-sign-of-deeper-economic-imbalances/

A year later, I finally published a piece I wrote about my volcano trip.

Shivering inside a bunkroom at the base camp at Iztaccíhuatl, North America’s 8th highest peak, a dormant volcano two hours outside of Mexico City, I tugged my sleeping bag shut to fight off the cold. Hurricane Ernesto was retreating from the area, leaving a heavy blanket of fog, and violently etched scars of water-run-outs in the deep black soil of the steep hill-faces around the site. The thick fog shrouded the view of Mexico City, the traffic, the beeping cars, and the 21 million people who live clustered around the country’s capital. The parking lot on Izta, however, was not a refuge from the crowds. Outside the base camp, TV cameramen huddled inside white vans, waiting to film the next eruption of Popocatepetl, Izta’s neighboring peak.

Miguel Angel Osorio Chong had relations with the organized crime Los Zetas during his mandate as governor of Hidalgo. Even PGR and SIEDO were doing an investigation on him. Pena Nieto has highly respected policy advisers?! I’m sorry but I’m sure you have no idea who his advisers are. The economical growth only benefits the US and other first world countries. Pena Nieto has removed labour rights with his new reforms and soon he will privatize the national oil company. How come there’s so many protests in Mexico City now? and how come Michoacan has armed communities kicking governments and drug lords out? Mexico’s economy and future is at risk thanks to the authoritarian party that has been imposed. I will believe there’s economical growth when the minimum salary isn’t 40 pesos per day.