European car sales analysis October 2017 – brands

European sales of passenger cars returned to growth in October 2017 after a one-month decline in September. 1,2 Million new cars were registered in Europe, which leads to a 10-month figure of 13,1 million, an increase of 3,5% on the same period last year and more than the 2014 full year figure. That means 2017 is very likely going to be the fourth consecutive year of growth after hitting a low of 12,3 million sales in 2013. Sales of regular cars (hatchbacks, station wagons, sedans, coupes and convertibles) are up by 0,5% (YTD: -0,5%), while MPV sales are down by 5,5% (YTD: -11%) and sales of crossovers and SUVs are booming just like in the US and China: up 19,8% (YTD: +16,7%).

Among the five biggest markets Spain, France (both +13,7%) and Italy (+7,1%) outgrow the European market while Germany (+3,9%) trails and the United Kingdom continues to struggle with another double digit loss (-12,2%). Besides the UK, only Ireland (-13,8%) and Finland (-4,6%) lose volume in October, while Bulgaria (+41,3%), Lithuania (+33%) and Hungary (+30,4%) show impressive growth rates. Year-to-date, Italy (+8,9%) and Spain (+7,3%) are the fastest growing among the five largest markets, followed by France (+4,8%) and Germany (+2,3%). In contrast, UK sales are down by 4,6% so far in 2017.

In September, small player Suzuki was impressively the biggest gainer among manufacturers, but in October things have returned to “normal” with Renault-Nissan and Volkswagen Group adding the most volume. In a sudden change of fate, PSA-Opel has switched from being one of the biggest losers in September to one of the biggest winners in October. One of the reasons is the reduced influence of the UK market on overall sales compared to September, as the Vauxhall brand is relatively strong there, and another reason is the strength of the Peugeot brand in October. BMW Group loses the most volume, followed by Tata Motors with its Jaguar and Land Rover brands, while Honda remains among the losers in Europe. Relatively speaking, Tesla is the fastest growing manufacturer, doubling its sales of last year, with Aston Martin and Suzuki also showing impressive growth rates at almost 60% and 30% respectively. SAIC MG is down a harsh 24,5% even though that translates to just 63 fewer sales than last year.

At brand level, Renault is the biggest gainer for the first time this year, followed by Peugeot as both grow by more than 10.000 sales, with Toyota not far behind. BMW is the big loser among brands as well, joined this month by Nissan and Jaguar. Looking at relative growth, Tesla and Aston are also the fastest growing among brands, followed by Lamborghini. Fastest declining brand is Jaguar now that the honeymoon period of the F-Pace is over and the new E-Pace hasn’t hit showrooms yet.

Renault-Nissan is the first manufacturer this year to add 100.000 sales so far this year, outgrowing Toyota Motor and Volkswagen Group, while in contrast Honda has already lost almost 17.500 sales, followed by Ford Motor Company and Mazda which both reduced their losses in October. In terms of relative growth, Aston Martin, Tesla and General Motors continue to lead the way with growth rates of +37% or more, while Honda and Mahindra & Mahindra with its SsangYong brand are down by more than 10% so far this year, with Subaru also among the fastest declining manufacturers.

Toyota is the biggest gaining brand so far in 2017, adding almost 77.000 sales to its tally, with Mercedes-Benz and Renault also growing with big numbers while Opel/Vauxhall continues to lose volume, already down by more than 32.000 sales as its new owner has reduced fleet sales and two important new crossovers are still in launch mode. DS and Honda have also lost more than 17.000 sales each. Relatively, the biggest losers are DS, down by almost a third, followed by Honda and SsangYong, both down by more than 11%.

The top-3 of the brands ranking remains unchanged from September and YTD, with Renault now firmly in second place ahead of Ford. After an impressive 2nd place in August and 4th in September, Mercedes-Benz is back down to 5th place, still two spots above its 2016 ranking. Peugeot is in fourth place for the second time this year after last April, up from 8th place in September, leaving newly found sister brand Opel/Vauxhall in 6th place, its lowest ranking this year, also scored in April. Audi is back ahead of BMW and Skoda ahead of Fiat. Toyota stays just outside of the top-10 despite being the fastest growing brand in the top-18 while Nissan drops back behind Citroën and Hyundai again. Seat is ahead of Dacia again as both grow by more than 20% as Suzuki outsells Mazda for the 8th time in the last 10 months. Mitsubishi is closing in on Honda again, threatening to outsell its Japanese rival for the second time since 2015, after last August. In the luxury ranking, Lexus outsells DS for the third consecutive month while it had never done so since the launch of the DS3 (then still a Citroën) in 2010.

No changes in the YTD ranking from September, as the top-4 brands are pretty much settled in their positions for the full year ranking. Mercedes-Benz and Peugeot may have a battle for 4th place in the last two months of the year, but Peugeot has the momentum now. 12th place will be a race between Nissan and Citroën with the French brand benefiting from the still fresh C3 subcompact and C3 Aircross crossover, while Nissan only has the new Micra subcompact to give the brand a boost. DS has a gap of 1.400 sales with Lexus, which appears to large for the Japanese brand to finish ahead of the struggling French luxury player, especially when deliveries of the new DS7 Crossback start to pick up pace in coming months. Among exotic brands, Aston Martin may threaten Ferrari for 41st place, but I think the Italian brand will remain ahead.

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About Bart Demandt

Bart is a 36-year old Dutchman who's always had a thing for cars, the automotive industry and statistics. He’s combined these passions by writing about them on CarSalesBase.com. His daily driver is an Alfa Romeo GT 3.2 V6 which he just can't seem to say goodbye to thanks to the mesmerizing exhaust note.
You can find all his articles Here.

The past months PSA sells more cars than in the past 5, 6 years.
Diesel engine demand decreased from 55% to 45%.
To meet increased demand for petrol, PSA’s Chinese partner will built additional engines.

The fall or the diesel is obvious. In a very dieselized market like Spain, were a few years ago de diesel cars was about 70% of the total sells, now is under 50% and keep decreasing.

Brands as Renault what were sinonimous for diesel along years, are initiating the change.

The situation could be better for gasoline cars, without the success of the SUVs. This kind of cars, sells much percentage of diesel than other cars, because they have a worst fuel mileage, due its higher weight, bigger wheels and poor aerodinamics. And since the SUVs are more expensive, the price increase of the diesel engine is less critical in the buying decission.

Renault is just starting roll out of new 1.3 Tce gasoline engine in Scenic with powers 115,140 and 160 HP, both more powerful engines also with automatic. Those engines should end up in Megane, Kadjar, even Talisman in 2018. Deliveries for Scenic with this engines are starting January 2018, I think it will have great impact. Not only is performance much better then previous gasoline engines but also compared to 1.6 Dci (160 HP EDC gasoline has 0-100 km/h almost 2s better then Dci160!!). And price difference is about 2k€. So now they have higher end with 1.8 Tce (225-300 HP), middle ground with 1.3 Tce, last thing we are waiting is apparently a bit developed 3cy engine from Clio 0,9 Tce which should go to 1l displacement and have powers from 100 to 120 HP. This is probably end 2018/ start 2019 with Clio V.

Yes, Nissan will have access. I don’t expect it in current Qashqai, probably next generation, which shouldn’t be too far away… Thing with Nissan is they have cars that are mostly diesel. Qashqai also already has 130 and 165 HP engines.This 1.3 Tce is also engine which we will see in next gen Mercedes A and I wouldn’t be too surprised if it ends up in facelifted C class next year.

Credit to them for making hybrid important, but this won’t last. Prius is already suffering and feeling the increasing EV competition. Toyota said they will enter the EV market in 2022. Once a pioneer, now a latecomer.

One more addition: Toyota has just announced they will no longer offer diesel engines in The Netherlands, limiting the consumer choice to petrol or hybrid. Granted, NL is just a small market, but it’s still symbolic of the direction in which the market is moving.

EV is the domain of Tesla and other Prestige Makes,
And Renault/Nissan, who use it as a Halo,
And FCA & Chevrolet, who lose money on each car sold,
And the Chinese!!!!!
Prius not critical for Toyota. Hybrid used in Yaris, Auris & especially RAV4, C-HR and Camry are far more important.
And then they have Lexus selling the technology in good numbers and very profitably on both sides of the Atlantic.
Only error is CVT, which takes from driver pleasure.
Something that won’t be said about Hyundai/Kia.