With just a few days left before a trade deadline, managers around the NHL are comparing their teams to the rest of the league and looking for the pieces needed for a playoff run. With the new playoff format, it’s especially important to overmatch the division rivals you are likely to face early in the postseason.

The Caps, despite sitting just fourth in the Metropolitan division, keep up with the teams above them in most statistical categories. But there is one area in which they are struggling: the second line.

Centered by rookie Evgeny Kuznetsov since the end of November, the Caps second line hasn’t been as good as their counterparts around the Metropolitan division’s top four.

Here’s how I identified second lines around the division:

Washington: Troy Brouwer, Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov;

NY Islanders: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome;

NY Rangers: Chris Kreider, Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan;

Pittsburgh: Blake Comeau, Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin (Malkin and Kunitz though do not have a sample of work as large as other players. The Pens have shuffled their lines a lot due to injuries.)

Second-line Possession

The bars indicate shot-attempt percentage for the two players when on ice together. The grey line is whole team’s shot-attempt percentage. All stats are five-on-five play. The league average is 50 percent. These numbers are up to date as of February 27.

As seen on this graph, the Caps’ unit is one of two second lines below their team’s average among the four teams. They are pulling down possession rather than improving it. Interestingly, the Rangers line faces much tougher competition than the other three.

And again, keep in mind that the Kunitz – Malkin sample is relatively small. They’re good, but they’re probably not that good.

Now let’s break it down in shot generation and suppression.

Shot Generation and Shot Suppression

For every forward duo, the left bar is shot-attempts-for/60 (shot generation) and the right bar is shot-attempts-against/60 (shot suppression).

The Caps’ second line is fine defensively, but they’re not creating enough offense. Both Isles’ and Pens’ second lines produce significantly more shots than the Johansson – Kuznetsov – Brouwer line. Despite facing tougher competition, the Rangers’ second line manages to keep pace.

It’s hard to say how the Caps can fix their second line’s offensive struggles. They might try to promote a known possession player like Eric Fehr (which might hurt the third line, which gets even more even-strength ice time and faces tougher competition) or look for a trade that would spark secondary scoring. So far the Caps have been linked with Flames’ forward Curtis Glencross, who would hardly be what that second line needs and would probably be used as a first-line right wing anyway, and proven possession playerPatrick Sharp, who might be too good for the second line.

While it may appear that the revolving door at the first-line right wing position is the most gaping hole in the Caps line-up, the team consistently lacks secondary scoring threats, which may hold them back in the postseason when, as Barry Trotz said recently, star players often cancel each other out. A seven-game series might come down to the secondary scoring, and the Caps need help in that department.

When asked about the growth of hockey in the DC Area over the last decade, Bettman marveled at the job both Alex Ovechkin and Ted Leonsis have done. Seconded.

“It’s the Ovechkin era and there’s an era that’s a little bit longer than that one and I would call that the [Ted] Leonsis era,” Bettman said beaming. “I think Ted’s ownership of this franchise has been nothing short of phenomenal in terms of how the community has been engaged and in terms of how fans have connected with and interacted with this franchise; the stability of ownership and management has been very important.”

“As important to the fan base as Ovi is and has been, and the other [Caps] players– Geno’s another good example. We’re a team sport,” Bettman said, maybe confusing Malkin for Nicklas Backstrom. “But I wouldn’t minimize Ovi’s impact. To the contrary, I think it’s been phenomenal.”

To be fair, public speaking is hard, and we’re just picking on Gary. And besides, Malkin really has helped galvanize Caps fans. We hate him, his team, and his stupid Conn Smythe-winning face.

“There were people, not me, who were surprised that there would be 40,000 people on New Year’s Day at National Park and that there would be 20,000 at 9 o’clock in the morning at the Fanfest,” Bettman concluded. “This has turned out to be, which we always believed it could be, a terrific hockey market.”

Citing “two unrelated sources” at least one of whom is “close to the club”, the report states that Tikhonov’s depature is “95 percent certain”. Panarin hasn’t quite made up his mind yet, but “wants to give it a try in North America to grow as a player”.

“More than ten NHL clubs have expressed interest in [Panarin]”, the source told TASS. “So his departure is a possible scenario and SKA’s management is aware of that.”

The 23-year-old Panarin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Dmitry Orlov’s teammate at the 2011 World Juniors, had a breakthrough season, leading in points on a team featuring ex-NHL forwards Ilya Kovalchuk, Roman Cervenka, and Evgeny Dadonov. He currently sits tied for second in the KHL in regular-season scoring with five games left. On the downside, his size (5’11”, 170 lbs) might make it a challenge to have a successful NHL career. The wording of the report on Panarin left me questioning if Panarin’s agent’s might be pressuring to SKA St. Petersburg to give his player a better deal by threatening them with defection.

While Panarin came into his own this season, Tikhonov has had a down year since playing a crucial role at the World Championships as Alex Ovechkin’s set-up man. This is the worst season in the four-year career of the grandson of the legendary Soviet coach. On the other hand, Tikhonov’s fluent English and familiarity with the North American style of play (Tikhonov lived and played in the US while his father Vasily worked with the San Jose Sharks, where he was an assistant coach, as well as with two minor league clubs in Kansas City and Kentucky) could make him a hot commodity around the league.

Another part of Russia’s top trio at the 2014 Worlds, Lokomotiv’s Sergei Plotnikov, recently told SovSport that he has a dream of playing in the NHL, but was quick to clarify that he does not have any current plans to come over.

Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of SKA’s board of directors, told TASS that they are currently working to sign contract extensions with both Panarin and Tikhonov, looking to keep both members of the national team in Russia.

While the falling value of the ruble could be a factor in each player’s decision, it probably wasn’t the key in either case. Panarin is coming off a stellar season (with five games left, he’s third in all-time KHL single-season scoring for players under 24 years of age). Most young players who post numbers like he did this year do give it a shot in North America. Tikhonov’s departure in 2015 has been rumored for years, and, interestingly, his contract with SKA expires just as the veteran of 61 NHL games with Arizona, who is a restricted free agent in the NHL right now, reaches UFA age. This is probably more than just a mere coincidence.

It has been a pleasant surprise to see Christian Djoos, drafted by the Capitals in the seventh round in 2012, fare well in Sweden.

Boxcar stats don’t do justice to this subtle blueliner. He looks mature regardless of his ice time. During the few occasions I saw Djoos get off to a rough start in games — sometimes just because of rotten luck — he proved mental toughness in bouncing back and not letting his game fall apart.

Djoos might not wow you on any given night, but he’s always consistent with his play.

Djoos’ biggest asset is his hockey IQ. He’s a quarterback on the ice, seeing the ice well and controlling the pace. He seems to calculate risks well and knows when to rush the play and when to play it simple.

Djoos’ passing is tremendous. He consistently finds his teammates with long-range passes straight to the tape. While he’s not a flamethrower from the point, he can be pretty accurate with his shot. He’s not a very fast skater, but he is incredibly skilled: his changes of pace and direction make him really hard to catch.

Djoos’ play in the defensive zone is not flawless but is overall solid. He clearly puts a lot of effort into making good defensive reads.

The biggest concern about Djoos is his size. His height is nothing special (he’s 6’0″), but he needs to bulk up to make the difference in the NHL as he weighs just 161 pounds as a 20-year-old. I am not sure how his body would handle playing on a smaller rink, but he went against the odds once before in his career to become an important player in the SHL

Take a look at number 3 in black, yellow, and white in the videos below.

Defense

Djoos’ defense is strong for a puck-moving defenseman. Even when he makes mistakes or has some bad luck, he doesn’t appear to let those errors get to him, so you never see him stringing bad defensive plays together. The only concern with him defensively is that he doesn’t always does the best job of boxing out in front of the net.

Offensive Instincts

The Swedish defenseman knows when to jump on the rush. A few times I saw him getting all the way up on the play to provide net-front presence. He almost never gets burned for an odd-man rush the other way.

Playmaking

Djoos is a fantastic playmaker. He seems to always spot his teammates and he shows great fake moves, especially on the power play, taking away the defenders and then setting up his mates.

Shooting

I’d like Djoos to shoot more; his shot is pretty decent. However, he just doesn’t have the size to launch bombs from the point.

Turnovers

There were very few turnovers for Djoos in my watchings. Power-play quarterbacks often get scrutinized for errant passes, sometimes unfairly because their mistakes are more costly than those of other players, but Djoos doesn’t force passes, so they almost never get picked off. By my count, Djoos made on average one turnover per eight passes at even strength, which is tremendous efficiency.

Physical Play

His physical play is pretty far from NHL level, but it’s still more than what you’d expect from a 160-pound player in one of Europe’s top pro leagues. Sometimes he catches opponents off-guard with his hits. He’s certainly willing to play physical.

]]>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/02/06/rmnb-scouts-christian-djoos-high-hockey-iq-but-size-may-limit-at-higher-levels/feed/14Alex Ovechkin is Already One of the Greatest Goal Scorers of All-Time According to Adjusted Statshttp://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/01/26/alex-ovechkin-is-already-one-of-the-greatest-goal-scorers-of-all-time-according-to-adjusted-stats/
http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/01/26/alex-ovechkin-is-already-one-of-the-greatest-goal-scorers-of-all-time-according-to-adjusted-stats/#commentsMon, 26 Jan 2015 17:51:07 +0000http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/?p=79877

Photo: Julio Cortez

Alex Ovechkin can score goals. Everybody knows that. His lamp-lighting ability is unmatched in this generation (sorry, Stamkos). And as Ovechkin takes aim for Peter Bondra’s Capitals franchise goal record (472, just 23 away), I asked myself how the Russian machine stacks up against the league’s all-time greats.

Adjusted Career Goals

Alex Ovechkin currently sits 31st in the rankings (and fourth among active players, behind Jagr, Iginla, and Hossa) as opposed to 59th in the non-adjusted list of the league’s greatest goalscorers. The 29-year-old Ovechkin has already taken first place in adjusted goalscoring among Russians surpassing ex-teammate Sergei Fedorov, who left the NHL at age 39.

Assuming the league’s current average scoring won’t change over the rest of Ovechkin’s career (it hasn’t changed much since 1997-98 aside from a two-year post-lockout spike), Ovi is 356 real (non-adjusted) goals away from the all-time lead in adjusted goals.

Hitting that number would be unlikely. It’d require Ovechkin to score 50 goals per season for the next six years. However, if he can match the longevity of a few other great scorers of our time (Teemu Selanne, Daniel Alfredsson, Marc Recchi, and Ray Whitney– all of whom scored more than 130 goals after turning 35), it doesn’t seem impossible.

Greatest Goal-Adjusted Seasons

If Ovechkin hits the 50-goal threshold again this season, he’ll be at least 25th or 26th in the all-time career adjusted goals list. Gretzky’s third place doesn’t appear to be out of reach; it’s just 202 real goals away from the Great Eight.

It’s entirely possible that by the time Ovechkin decides to hang ‘em up, he’ll be considered one of the five greatest goal scorers ever, mentioned in the same breath as Gretzky, Mike Bossy, Gordie Howe, and, yes, Jagr.

Maybe we should be nicer to him.

]]>http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/01/26/alex-ovechkin-is-already-one-of-the-greatest-goal-scorers-of-all-time-according-to-adjusted-stats/feed/24Alex Ovechkin Does Not Rule Out Return to Russia In Interview With SovSporthttp://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/01/25/alex-ovechkin-does-not-rule-out-return-to-russia-in-interview-with-sovsport/
http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2015/01/25/alex-ovechkin-does-not-rule-out-return-to-russia-in-interview-with-sovsport/#commentsSun, 25 Jan 2015 18:58:23 +0000http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/?p=79913

Photo: Dave Sandford

In an interview with SovSport on Saturday, Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin was asked straight up if he wanted to return to Russia next year. Ya know, to debunk the rumor once and for all so we could all move on. Instead, Ovechkin left the door open for a possible return and even sounded like he has put a lot of thought into the idea.

Sigh.

Sasha, the persistent rumor that you will return to the KHL in 2015 is around. Please debunk it or give hope to the fans.

Alex Ovechkin: We’ll see. There are a lot of nuances in this matter that need to be considered as well as potential obstacles.

Sounds vague.

AO: I’m telling you, to make a KHL return there should be more than just a player’s desire. All factors should come together for it to go through.

One of the older players on the list, Caps’ sixth-round pick in 2012 Riley Barber,currently in his junior year at the Miami (Ohio) University, is ranked 29th. Barber is the only Caps prospect to appear on Craig Button’s top-30 NHL prospects rankings, where is 25th.

Madison Bowey, coming off a gold medal win with Team Canada at the home WJC, is 45th on ESPN’s list. The mobile offensive defenseman finished the tournament tied for the lead in points among Canadian blueliners with one goal and three assists.

The WHL’s Kelowna Rockets, home to the Caps’ second-round pick and World Junior champion Madison Bowey, have gone all-in on the Memorial Cup, acquiring Winnipeg Jets’ top prospect Josh Morrissey from the Prince Albert Raiders last month. Now the Rockets have made another all-star caliber addition to their already-impressive roster by trading two roster players and three draft picks for another Raider, Leon Draisaitl, third overall pick of the 2014 NHL Draft, in advance of Friday’s WHL trade deadline.

Draisaitl, 19, made the Oilers out of camp this year, playing in 37 games, scoring two goals and seven assists, but was re-assigned to Prince Albert last week. Last year, Draisaitl finished tied for fourth in points in the WHL with Prince Albert (38 goals and 67 assists, 105 points in 64 games).

German-born Draisaitl, one of the best center prospects in hockey today, will bring more star power to the Rockets’ forward lines to match the big names on their back-end.

Captained by Bowey and led by the group of Draisaitl; Morrissey; Nashville’s 2014 third-rounder Justin Kirkland; San Jose’s fifth-round pick Rourke Chartier; and possible top-20 selection at the 2015 draft, Nick Merkley, the WHL-leading Rockets are the favorites for the league championship and a Memorial Cup berth.

It remains possible that the battle for the CHL championship will feature the Rockets and one of the OHL powerhouses: the Erie Otters (featuring 2015 Draft stars Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome as well as Stars’ Remi Elie and Sabres’ Nick Baptiste) or the Oshawa Generals (headlined by Islanders’ Michael Dal Colle, Senators’ Tobias Lindberg, and Canucks’ Cole Cassels).

Capitals’ first-round pick Jakub Vrana scored two goals and one assist in five games at the World Junior Championship before his Czech Republic fell to Slovakia 0-3, failing to make the semifinals for the tenth straight tournament.

The Czechs made the quarterfinals with a surprising 4-1 win over Russia in the last game of the preliminary round, arguably the only positive game for the Czechs in an otherwise disappointing group stage that included losses to Switzerland and Sweden as well an overtime win over Denmark.

Vrana seemed to try to do everything himself too often, which led to a lot of turnovers as defensemen throughout the tournament swarmed the Czech leaders as they entered the zone. On the bright side, unlike other Czech players, Vrana didn’t hesitate to shoot the puck, finishing the tournament with team-high 23 shots on goal.

Goals

Both of Vrana’s goals came in their first game of the tournament, a 2-5 loss against Team Sweden. For his first goal of the tournament, Vrana intercepted an errant pass by Flyers prospect Robert Hagg and confidently capitalized on the breakaway. That goal changed the momentum of the game in a big way as the Czechs got within one after trailing 0-2.

Just seven minutes later, Vrana tied the game. He snuck behind the D after the aggressive forecheck by the Czechs kept the puck in the zone and pounced on a pass to the front of the net.

Assist

Vrana assisted on Ondrej Kase’s empty net goal that ensured their win over Russia that allowed them to avoid relegation stage and make the quarterfinals.

Another Caps prospect on the Czech team, Vitek Vanecek, had an even more disappointing World Juniors. After coming into the tournament as the starting goalie, he lost his job to Miroslav Svoboda after three games, posting an .829 save percentage.

Editor’s Note — Throughout the season, Fedor will be posting scouting reports for Capitals prospects around the globe, bringing his thoughts on their performance as well as video evidence. First up is Jakub Vrana.

Washington Capitals 2014 first round pick Jakub Vrana plays for Linkoping of the SHL (Swedish Hockey League) and will play on the Czech Republic’s World Junior Championship team. He left a conflicting impression in the eight games I watched of him in October and early November. His skill was evident as he sometimes made veteran defensemen look foolish. However, he would go invisible for long stretches. On some occasions, it appeared that he let frustration get the best of him after missed opportunities on the offensive end and looked like a shadow of himself for the rest of the game. His first period was often his best as he sometimes looked tired in the second half of games and Linkoping’s coach Roger Melin would sometimes bench him in the third period. He clearly needs to be more aware defensively as sometimes he’s caught watching the play looking for a chance to get on the rush quickly instead of tracking his man in order to make sure there’s no scoring chance developing behind his back.

Still, his combination of speed and skill was too much for defensemen in this league. He also was always on the lookout to steal an errant pass or pickpocket a puck handler for a backbreaking goal. He’s not an overly physical player due to his smaller stature, but he also doesn’t put himself in bad position and get caught on big hits as well. If he can develop some consistency, he’ll be really hard to defend and potentially a game-changing player in the future.

Below the jump, I analyze every part of Vrana’s game with video evidence.

Keep an eye out on #13 wearing blue and white.

Speed

Vrana’s acceleration is tremendous; he takes almost no time to get that top gear. His stride is very smooth and he can change directions rapidly. Skating is one of his biggest strengths.

Interceptions

Vrana makes a lot of interceptions that lead to scoring chances. His positioning without the puck, especially in the offensive and neutral zones is solid and his first step, as I mentioned above, is amazing, allowing him to jump on the pucks.

Stickhandling/Skill

Vrana is one of the most skilled prospects in his age group. When he’s on his game, the puck seems to gravitate to his stick and his elusive skating allows him to beat defensemen one-on-one on a number of occasions.

Shooting

The wrist shot is an important part of Vrana’s play. He finds room to pull the trigger, and as he gets older and stronger his shot will become more and more of a threat. Right now, it’s probably not as quick as Andre Burakovsky’s, but still, defensemen have to respect Vrana’s shot.

Passing and Playmaking

Vrana’s crisp, precise passes allow his team to establish offensive pressure on a lot of occasions. He may not be a passing maestro like Nicklas Backstrom, but he’s not a selfish player and know how to put the pucks on sticks of his teammates. His vision is good, and he can make strong, long passes.

Offensive Awareness

As I said, Vrana is able to find room for his shot and pull the trigger. He predicts the play well, and his speed allows him to beat defensemen to spots where the puck is heading.

Puck Protection

This is something I’ve been impressed by watching Vrana. Despite playing in a top-tier professional league at the age of just 18, he’s able to protect the puck with his body really well.

Defense

Vrana’s defensive effort is inconsistent, which is a problem with many young highly drafted offensive stars. Sometimes he makes decent defensive plays, but it seems like he just waits for the play to go the other way instead of actively participating in team defense. He’s not always ready for pinches by opposing defensemen and struggles. He also struggles with proper gap control and closing down lanes.

Turnovers

Vrana makes high-risk plays from time to time. His attack-first mindset can occasionally get him in trouble with turnovers and giveaways.

Forecheck

The Czech winger is a good forechecker. He goes after the puckhandler aggressively, and it often works out for him.

Shootout Attempts

When I saw Vrana play in the fall, he had two bad shootout attempts. He fumbled the puck on the first one. On the second, the goaltender didn’t buy his moves, making an easy stop as the forward just ran out of room.