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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

ABC's Resurrection (1.9) came back from a week off with a sixth consecutive decline since the premiere. It will definitely want to bring that streak to an end with next week's finale, but we'll see. ABC did get good news at 8/7c as Once Upon a Time (2.2) bounced all the way back and then some from last week's hiccup, which seems to have been driven by Easter and the irregular programming around it. And Revenge (1.3) adjusted up off its prelim new low.

CBS also had a mixed night; The Amazing Race (1.9) had one of its best numbers this season, but The Good Wife (1.3) and The Mentalist (1.2) were each at or very near their respective low ends.

On NBC, Believe (1.0) took a major hit in finals, from preliminarily up a tick to final down a tick. And The Simpsons adjusted up, meaning no outright weakest regular slot showing ever.

FULL TABLE:

Info

Show

Timeslot

True

A18-49

Skew

Last

LeLa

Rank

y2y

TLa

Ty2y

America's Funniest Home Videos

1.6

30%

+23%

+0.3

n/a

1/19

+0%

+68%

+3%

1.8

Once Upon a Time

2.2

38%

+29%

+0.5

+0.6

8/19

+10%

+26%

+7%

2.3

Resurrection

1.9

31%

-10%

-0.2

+0.2

7/7

n/a

+100%

+9%

1.8

Revenge

1.3

32%

+0%

+0.0

-0.2

16/20

-24%

+24%

+86%

1.5

ABC:

+49%

+16%

60 Minutes

1.3

16%

+18%

+0.2

n/a

20/25

-13%

+18%

-13%

1.5

The Amazing Race

1.9

29%

+12%

+0.2

+0.2

2/9

-21%

+12%

-21%

2.1

The Good Wife

1.3

18%

+0%

+0.0

+0.2

14/19

-19%

-4%

-19%

1.3

The Mentalist

1.2

18%

-14%

-0.2

+0.0

18/19

-25%

-14%

-23%

1.5

CBS:

+3%

-19%

American Dream Builders

0.6

30%

+20%

+0.1

n/a

6/7

n/a

+9%

-8%

0.7

Dateline Sun

1.0

22%

+25%

+0.2

+0.1

3/5

n/a

+18%

-9%

1.3

Believe

1.0

28%

-9%

-0.1

+0.2

6/8

n/a

-13%

-33%

1.1

Crisis

1.0

32%

+11%

+0.1

-0.1

5/7

n/a

+11%

-39%

1.3

NBC:

+4%

-36%

Bob's Burgers

1.1

62%

+83%

+0.5

n/a

13/19

-35%

+83%

+22%

1.3

American Dad!

1.2

63%

+9%

+0.1

+0.3

15/17

-37%

+100%

+0%

1.4

The Simpsons

1.6

59%

-6%

-0.1

+0.1

17/19

-24%

+78%

-24%

1.8

Family Guy

2.1

66%

+0%

+0.0

-0.1

14/18

-19%

+75%

+24%

2.1

Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey

1.4

49%

+0%

+0.0

+0.9

6/8

n/a

+0%

-38%

1.5

Fox:

+44%

-15%

Big4:

+26%

-14%

Game of Thrones

3.70

68%

+7%

+0.24

1/4

+41%

Silicon Valley

0.85

69%

+5%

+0.04

3/4

n/a

Mad Men

0.73

46%

+23%

+0.14

2/3

-26%

Devious Maids

0.67

51%

-11%

-0.08

2/2

+5%

Veep

0.50

69%

+40%

+0.14

2/4

-22%

Turn

0.35

34%

-2%

-0.01

4/4

n/a

Salem

0.3

49%

-41%

-0.21

2/2

n/a

KEY (click to expand)

A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

7 comments:

No way CBS would renew The Mentalist, and chances it finds a new home at some cable network are slim at best. Simply because of Simon Baker. Why would he work for peanuts on some cable network, when CBS Productions (or WB or whomever) can provide him new vehicle to star on a broadcast (presumably CBS that made him reach and famous, while in return he earned them a ton of money) for big bucks? So I would be inclined to write it off as usual Deadline fan pleasing nonsense, if not for...

Baker missed on this pilot season. Therein lies the rub, he might accept one more season of The Mentalist just to work (and be payed for) something during the 2014-15 season. That is, if studio and hypothetical cable network would want to cut him a deal where Mentalist is actually in 2nd position to his new pilot for the 2015-16 season. Now, if cable network would take such unfavorable deal (BTW, for pretty expensive show), then it would have to be a sibling network. That's why there are rumors about TNT (having same owner, Time Warner, as Warner Bros TV that produces Mentalist). Then I'd say 90% for this being a final season of The Mentalist, and 10% for it to continue on TNT, 0% for anything else. I'm making those percentages out of thin air, but it's known how rarely broadcast shows move to cable.

For The Mentalist to have been beyond this season, I think two things had to happen simultaneously: it needed to overperform, especially relative to The Good Wife, and one/both of the Friday dramas needed to collapse. You could argue the first-half of the season did the former when the Red John storyline wrapped up, but Hawaii Five-O and Blue Bloods ended up being stronger than expected. Simon Baker's missed pilot seasons before after a CBS drama cancellation, and there's a chance he actually would like the year off to either to a movie or just rest before agreeing to a new seven-year contract. Deadline loves to feed the flames of fans (see: talk of reviving Body of Proof this season), so I'd write it off as that.

That headline going around about the least viewed Simpsons ever made me upset, because the lowest viewed one was that special 7:30 airing on March 9th and it ended up adjusting, making it more pointless