As always, Sporting News’ weekly Field of 68 is a projection of what the NCAA Tournament selection committee would do based on what’s happened so far this season.

Bubble watch: Virginia. The Cavaliers have a bizarre NCAA Tournament resume, to say the least. When sorting wins and losses by RPI—which is how the selection committee software presents the information in the decision room—the Cavaliers are a stellar 5-0 against top 100 teams. They are, though, just 4-5 against teams ranked 101-150, and their two worst losses are even outside that grouping. Tony Bennett’s team has losses to Delaware (176) and Old Dominion (324); that last one is, obviously, a crusher. The Cavaliers’ game at Maryland, another ACC bubble team, on Sunday is huge for both teams.

Worst week: Wyoming. In a vacuum, there is no shame in losing games to either New Mexico or Colorado State. Both squads will wind up in the NCAA Tournament, and the Lobos have a shot at a top-three seed. But losing to both of those teams in the same week leaves the Cowboys at just 2-6 in the rugged Mountain West conference, and any margin for error afforded by their 13-0 start to the season is gone.

Worst week, Part II: Oregon. Without their outstanding freshman point guard, Dominic Artis, the Ducks lost road games this week at Stanford and at California, two teams barely on the fringes of being on the bubble conversation. Artis, who is out with a foot injury—the dreaded “indefinite” absence—probably won’t be available this week, either.

One-bid league spotlight: Conference USA. Southern Miss is a perfect 7-0 in league play and has an impressive 18-4 overall record and decent computer numbers (38 RPI, 33 Pomeroy), but the Golden Eagles’ resume lacks anything even remotely close to a signature victory. They’re 0-4 against RPI top 100 teams, which makes Saturday’s home game against Memphis (43 RPI, 54 Pomeroy) pretty much a must-win.

Note: Automatic bids, listed in parenthesis, are given to the team with the best conference record (through Sunday’s games), with overall record used to break ties.

1. Indiana (Big Ten), Michigan, Florida (SEC), Duke

The Gators have been crushing SEC foes, which is a good thing for their hopes of securing a No. 1 seed in March, because the top of their NCAA resume will almost certainly lack the same punch as other contenders. Right now, their best RPI win is Marquette (16) and their best Pomeroy win is Wisconsin (14). Good, but not nearly great. Compared to Indiana (Michigan/Michigan State/Minnesota), Duke (Louisville/Ohio State), Kansas (Ohio State), Arizona (Florida/Miami), for example, the Gators are already behind, and the SEC schedule doesn’t offer anything in the way of elite wins. And contenders Michigan, Louisville, Syracuse and Michigan State all have plenty of opportunities the rest of the way.

Hard to believe, but Miami has the best record in the country against RPI top 50 teams. The Hurricanes are 6-1 after the win at N.C. State on Saturday, and a shot at a No. 1 seed isn’t out of the picture. To get there, though, winning at Duke on March 2 is an absolute must-win situation.

For the first time in a few weeks, Louisville looked like a dominant team again on Saturday against Marquette. The Cardinals fell behind 9-1 quickly, but outscored the Golden Eagles 37-15 the rest of the way to halftime and cruised to an easy victory over a very good Big East rival. Road games at Rutgers and Notre Dame await the Cardinals this week.

4. Ohio State, Butler, Minnesota, Cincinnati

Ohio State plays at Michigan on Tuesday and hosts Indiana on Sunday. Even by Big Ten standards, that’s a ridiculously brutal week.

5. Kansas State, UNLV, Creighton (Missouri Valley), Oklahoma State

Creighton presents an interesting seeding challenge for the selection committee. The Bluejays are a solid 8-2 against RPI top 100 opponents, but only 1-1 against top 50, and their loss at Drake (RPI 136) on Jan. 23 isn’t good. They’re ranked 33rd in the RPI and 15th in the kenpom.com ratings.

6. Wichita State, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Georgetown

Wichita State is coming off a rough week. The Shockers fell out of first place in the Missouri Valley standings with losses to Indiana State and Northern Iowa, but have an opportunity to rebound this week with games against Southern Illinois and Missouri State—both are ranked worse than 200 by the RPI and Pomeroy.

7. Oregon, N.C. State, San Diego State, Wisconsin

Senior Ryan Evans takes 26.2 percent of Wisconsin’s shots when he’s on the floor and has a 26.5 percent usage rate. Both numbers lead the team, which probably isn’t a good thing. Evans had a breakthrough year as a sophomore, but his shooting numbers have been pretty awful across the board this season. He’s shooting an awful 43.3 percent on his 2-point attempts and has made just two of 23 3-point attempts this season (8.7 percent). And he’s been dreadful from the free-throw line—he’s shooting 40.4 percent (40-for-99) from the charity stripe. This, after he shot 72.6 percent from the line last year.

8. VCU (Atlantic 10), Colorado State, Mississippi, Missouri

Missouri’s loss at LSU on Wednesday was dreadful, in so many ways. The Tigers, who are 0-4 on the road this season, play at Texas A&M on Wednesday and host Ole Miss on Saturday. It’s not a make-or-break week, but it’s close.

9. UCLA, Notre Dame, Saint Louis, Oklahoma

This was a good week for Saint Louis. The Billikens took apart Butler with an outstanding defensive effort—they created 17 first-half turnovers—and followed that up with a 29-point win against a solid Dayton team. In the crazy Atlantic 10 race, the Billikens are 5-2 and in great position.

10. Illinois, Baylor, Memphis (C-USA), La Salle

Your weekly Illinois update: The Illini still have three great wins—at Gonzaga, vs. Butler (neutral), vs. Ohio State (home)—and still can’t win Big Ten games. They’re 2-7 in conference play and have Indiana and Minnesota this week. Sheesh.

11. North Carolina, Kentucky, Colorado, Belmont (Ohio Valley)

As has been the case in recent years, the bubble has many deeply flawed teams. Blue bloods North Carolina and Kentucky are in this week’s Field of 68 despite identical 1-4 records against Top 50 teams. Their perch is precarious.