Monday, October 22, 2007

Southeastern division preview

Will this be a breakout year for Marvin Williams? No.With a better supporting cast, will we realize Joe Johnson is over-rated? Yes.

Their rookies will help them contend for a playoff position, but too many other teams in the East have improved. The Celtics, Milwaukee and Charlotte will deny the Hawks a post-season berth.

Go the Hawks wikipedia page and you’ll see some ill logos. Their early ‘70s logo looks like it totally belongs to a villain in a dystopian comic book. And, of course,

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlanta_Hawks

Predicted finish – 39-43

Orlando Last year - 40-42 (8)

Losing Grant Hill is going to hurt more than gaining Rashard Lewis will help. Lewis does a lot of the same things as Hedo, but not a whole lot better; he takes more shots and shoots a higher percentage, but doesn’t pass or rebound significantly better. J.J. Reddick can’t do many of the things Grant Hill did, and that’s really going to hurt them, But it seems Jameer Nelson is back on track and Dwight Howard is adding some finesse to his power game. So I think they win a playoff game or two with some 30,20, 5 performances by Howard. Can we get a nickname for him please?Perhaps, Sir Dunk-A-Lot.

Predicted finish – 43-39

WashingtonLast year - 41-41 (7)

I really feel for Ethan Thomas, especially cause he’s a lefty, but maybe the tension around him and Haywood that now should be gone will help the team. But Haywood’s not able to play 35 minutes and game without getting in foul trouble and I don’t think Blatche is ready to step in.

Arenas, Jamison and Butler are a very nice core, but staying too many other teams improved for the Wiz to get back to the playoffs.

Predicted record - 38-44.

Charlotte Last year - 33-49

"It's disappointing with Adam going down -- especially because he's been putting so much effort in during the summer, trying to pick up our system and improve his defense," said Vincent, who will distribute Morrison's minutes among Derek Anderson, Walter Hermann and Matt Carroll.

More Carroll and Hermann is a good thing.

I really can’t think of a worst big city to live in than Charlotte.

Predicted record – 44-38

Miami Last year - 44-38 (4)

I’m really surprised that anyone thinks the Heat are in the mix for the Eastern Conference Championship, not the regular season title, that this squad is still capable of getting a 5 or 6 seed and then making a run in the playoffs.

Ain’t gonna happen.

I know the Heat mortgaged their future for that 2005 title, but a team with this many holes could have been avoided. Riles has simply done a terrible job managing the roster the last two off seasons. Letting both Kapono and Posey go was the cherry on top; losing them both deprives the Heat of two things they dearly need - three-point shooting and, in Posey, an athletic, tough wing defender. Maybe D. Wright can make the leap, but that’s a big if, he certainly can’t shoot the three ball with precision.

If you’re watching Heat games this year I think you’re going to hear a lot of this – “Shaq doubled teamed underneath, kicks it out to Walker, Walker for three, he misses badly and the [fill in the blank] fast break to the other end.

Miami’s big three is their key to returning to the playoffs. Unfortunately for Heat fans their core is old, injury-prone or both. Outside of the big 3 there’s not a lot of ability there. Zo still blocks a lot of shots, but 4.5 rebounds in twenty minutes a game is pedestrian. I would say Boston has more outside of their big 3 than Miami.

So the question becomes how often will J. Wil, Shaq and Wade see the court together?

Shaq has averaged 62 games over the last six seasons. J. Wil has averaged sixty games the last two. We all know Wade is far from healthy. Any games that Shaq, Wade or J. Wil are out it’s going to be real hard for them to win.Wade can run the point, but he doesn’t have the wing players to score if he’s setting things up. And with very little quality three-point shooting on this team, Shaq is going to get mugged more than ever. What does J. Will have left at 32?

Let’s not even get into how bad this team is going to be defensively. Remember that game to begin last year when the Bulls won by 42 and ran the Heat into the ground – that’s going to happen a lot to this team.