Wondering what AA Hub will experience the most pain from the travel slow/stop.

My guess is CLT. They have the lowest landing/ passenger fees in the AA network, and a huge volume from early morning to late night. AA has huge overall market-share of 91% at CLT.

Maybe being the low cost landing/Passenger fee leader has a major risk when volume significantly drops.

I actually doubt it will be CLT. You point out CLT low operational costs which tends to swing in its favor I think. In addition, general NC exposure to the virus (as opposed to bigger population centers) make us a tad less likely to feel the same strain of the other hubs (though there will be considerable strain the Lord knows). We also did not have a great deal of international flights. I would expect LAX, JFK, PHL and to lesser extent DFW and/or ORD to feel it worse than Charlotte.

if the US halts domestic air travel it's game over for this industry. It won't be just CLT and it won't be just AA. Airlines will fail in mass because certain fixed costs will continue with no revenue coming in. Untold numbers in the travel and hospitality industry will find themselves immediately unemployed. An airline can't park it's entire fleet and be around for very long.

if the US halts domestic air travel it's game over for this industry. It won't be just CLT and it won't be just AA. Airlines will fail in mass because certain fixed costs will continue with no revenue coming in. Untold numbers in the travel and hospitality industry will find themselves immediately unemployed. An airline can't park it's entire fleet and be around for very long.

LAX, DFW, ORD, MIA, etc have some alternative revenue coming in from cargo, and I speculate other streams of revenue that will continue to flow less PAX/ Landing fees. There is some potential diversification.

CLT does have a Air National Guard on its field, but I am of aware of what else they have to aid in the loss of revenue.

I have to imagine it would be PHX. Heavily reliant on tourism to the lovely weather. Not as much business traffic as moving through the other hubs (sans-MIA, but that serves a larger O&D market). The other hub to get decimated will be JFK since it is reliant on O&D traffic mostly, all TATL flights are done and NY is growing as an epicenter of the domestic outbreak.

I have to imagine it would be PHX. Heavily reliant on tourism to the lovely weather. Not as much business traffic as moving through the other hubs (sans-MIA, but that serves a larger O&D market). The other hub to get decimated will be JFK since it is reliant on O&D traffic mostly, all TATL flights are done and NY is growing as an epicenter of the domestic outbreak.

This is just bad...bad...bad...

PHX was busy on Thursday and Sunday of this past week based on my visits and flights being 90% full top/from PDX.

Programs: BA/AA/AS/B6/WN/ UA/HH/MR and more like 'em but most felicitously & importantly MUCCI

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

if the US halts domestic air travel it's game over for this industry... Airlines will fail in mass because certain fixed costs will continue with no revenue coming in.

There is talk today of $25 billion in direct government grants to US passenger carriers to keep them liquid, with another $4 billion for cargo airlines, plus another $20 to $30 billion in credit lines and tax easements. That would go a long way to preventing the outcome you suggest.

I'm going to speculate PHX and MIA as well. Much of the travel demand to PHX is discretionary (i.e. vacations and conferences etc) that have the most risk for being cancelled under the current climate. MIA is the most international oriented of the hubs so it will suffer the most from the international travel restrictions.

Wondering what AA Hub will experience the most pain from the travel slow/stop.

My guess is CLT. They have the lowest landing/ passenger fees in the AA network, and a huge volume from early morning to late night. AA has huge overall market-share of 91% at CLT.

Maybe being the low cost landing/Passenger fee leader has a major risk when volume significantly drops.

Ehhh... I still picked up 1493 flights on my flight aware at CLT today and that's pretty much spot on for the last few months. Sometimes a little less, sometimes around 1700 but 1500 is about the norm. If it starts dropping off a ton then I'd be worried about CLT but American hasn't cut as much as other carriers. If I was Chicago, PHL, JFK where international flights make me a ton of money and all of my carriers quit I would be extremely worried. PHX and CLT will probably weather the storm unless domestic travel ceases.

I have to imagine it would be PHX. Heavily reliant on tourism to the lovely weather. Not as much business traffic as moving through the other hubs (sans-MIA, but that serves a larger O&D market). The other hub to get decimated will be JFK since it is reliant on O&D traffic mostly, all TATL flights are done and NY is growing as an epicenter of the domestic outbreak.

This is just bad...bad...bad...

huh? MIA is an infinitely larger business market than Phoenix and one of the most important business travel markets in the country.

Post-9/11, MIA suffered the least because of the resiliency of LatAm travel, but I donít think thatíll be the case this time around. Everybody will be hurting.

huh? MIA is an infinitely larger business market than Phoenix and one of the most important business travel markets in the country.

Post-9/11, MIA suffered the least because of the resiliency of LatAm travel, but I donít think thatíll be the case this time around. Everybody will be hurting.

I'm in the MIA D30 AC and it's packed. Other than the way they have the food laid out (and no bowl of the mints I like) you'd never know there was anything called a Corona virus. Going through the MIA airport this morning and even here in the AC there's no shortage of frail, sickly looking seniors, some in wheelchairs. As I said you can't legislation common sense.

Ehhh... I still picked up 1493 flights on my flight aware at CLT today and that's pretty much spot on for the last few months. Sometimes a little less, sometimes around 1700 but 1500 is about the norm. If it starts dropping off a ton then I'd be worried about CLT but American hasn't cut as much as other carriers. If I was Chicago, PHL, JFK where international flights make me a ton of money and all of my carriers quit I would be extremely worried. PHX and CLT will probably weather the storm unless domestic travel ceases.

AA has already said the domestic cutbacks are coming in April and May (20% and 30%). Don't expect CLT to be spared. UA/DL domestic cutbacks also don't go effect until April, and look to have largely been loaded into systems at this point (either via cancellation or zeroing out flights). AA looks to be a bit behind UA/DL in sizing up where they will cut domestically, but it is definitely coming.