The Conservatives lead by two points in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tory lead is down by four since last week, with Labour unchanged on 30%. The Liberal Democrats are up two points at 11%, UKIP up one at 12%, the Greens unchanged at 7% and the SNP up one at 5%.

I found Conservative supporters the most certain of their decision, with 79% saying they will definitely vote that way. As always, Lib Dems were the least committed, with 42% saying they may yet change their minds.