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News - Reading of more shooting on the "border" with Russian troops near Donetsk. Pisky, Marinka. Reports of explosions - not just small arms fire. Also a report of a tank being used - admitted by the Russian terrorists themselves.

Weather - Stable. +3 last night near Kiev. High of maybe 12 today.

Observation - Putin finally appeared on tv. Re the flight break up over Sinai, I see two scenarios - 1. The tail broke off due to weakness following earlier repair after tail strike in 2001, and 2. A bomb. Either way, not good for Putin. Russia inspects the planes and gives the "airworthiness" certificates. A bomb would be as a result of Putin's actions in Syria.

Footie - Champions League action this week. Most significant will be Chelsea - Dynamo tomorrow.Today Shakhtar play Malmo in Lviv. But pointless. Shakhtar very unlikely to be able to qualify. Akhmetov's team have bit the dust.

Last edited by Nelson on Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:26 am; edited 2 times in total

I had a chat with some soldiers on a couple of weeks' break from Volnavahka yesterday. They said that there was no real ceasefire, and that shooting continued in many places, but simply was not reported in the Ukrainian media.They also said that the atmosphere in Mariupol and many places on the eastern front was unpleasant. The pro-Russian residents there - of which there are many, clearly blaming Ukrainians for the trouble. They also mentioned many people in Odessa oblast wearing St George ribbons in support of the terrorists. Of course, this area is near Transdnistr - which has a Russian military base also.

http://society.puls.kiev.ua/in_world/358718.html====If true, that is significant. And moves the scenario closer to a bomb onboard. Or engine explosion possibly. The A 321 is a big plane. I flew on one last Thursday. Sat right at the back.====Possible conspiracy theory - Putin's KGB plant the bomb in St Peterburg. After the plane lands in Sharm El Sheikh they activate it. It explodes over Sinai.And now - Putin has "sympathy" for extending his war in support of dictator Assad in Syria. As Russia has been the "victim" of a "terrorist" attack. ?!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/02/ukraine-ghost-brigade-ukraine-rebels====Also from the Guardian. The brigade leader is called "Rostov". Says it all. Why don't they report from a Russian base itself?!Western journos go to this guy every month for an interview. Carroll was there in May, somebody else in August. Like a tourist stop-off point.====Just digging around a little - so this is the guy the Guardian talk to - as an "Ukrainian rebel".... Where is he from? Russia... He worked for many many years for the Russian military. The Guardian's "Ukrainian rebel"... You couldn't make it up. Does the Guardian mention this? No. What a surprise - not.

11:39http://nbnews.com.ua/ru/news/164993/Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations Stephen O'Brien arrived in Donetsk occupied by militants. On Tuesday, November 3, the source in the diplomatic circles of the terrorist organization "Donetsk People's Republic."====If true, expect Mr O'Brien to get a big BIG bonus from Mr Putin. Why not go to occupied Crimea while he is there?

12:15http://www.ostro.org/general/world/news/485067/Russian President Vladimir Putin should be maintained in spite of the mistakes committed by him and fight for him "to the last." =====Ensures his Russian military pension continues to roll in. And maybe a bonus or two also.Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer.

13:00http://newsoboz.org/politika/poroshenko-rassmotrit-petitsiyu-o-referendume-po-vstupleniyu-03112015100450E-petition for a referendum on accession to NATO received the required 25 thousand votes.This is stated on the website of the president, reports NewsOboz.org citing Gazeta.ua"Mr. President, I, like millions of Ukrainians want to join NATO, and I think a referendum on NATO membership would give a clear signal as to our allies and enemies," - said in the document.Now the President must within three days to review the petition. After that, within 10 working days to inform the relevant decision.=====Putin's worst nightmare, but all of his own doing. It will be interesting how the AP respond to this petition.

Kiselyov: “’The improvement of relations between Ukraine and Russia does not depend on Ukraine.’ Ukraine didn’t spoil them; Russia did by seeking to block Ukraine’s choice to turn to Europe. Russia in fact is responsible for the fact that a revolution took place in Ukraine and pro-Western forces came to power.”

By Paul Goble* for “Window on Eurasia”:

November 2 – Because of Russian actions, more than three million Ukrainians have fled the Donbas and Crimea either to other parts of Ukraine thus becoming internally displaced persons or to Russia and other countries, a number that is “much larger than” the refugee flow into Europe from the Middle East, Yevgeny Kiselyov says.

In a post on Ekho Moskvy today, the Kyiv-based Russian journalist says that he was recently asked by a Russian journalist whether the October 25 Ukrainian elections would lead to an improvement in Ukrainian-Russian relations. He answered but doubtful that the journalist would use them is repeating his words on his blog (echo.msk.ru/blog/kiselev/1650980-echo/).

Specifically, Kiselyov said, “the improvement of relations between Ukraine and Russia does not depend on Ukraine.” Ukraine didn’t spoil them; Russia did by seeking to block Ukraine’s choice to turn to Europe. Russia in fact is responsible for the fact that a revolution took place in Ukraine and pro-Western forces came to power.

Then, Moscow compounded that mistake by seizing and annexing Ukraine’s Crimea and starting a war in the Donbas, backing the separatists and intervening with its own military when the separatists were losing, killing and wounding “tens of thousands of Ukrainians” and driving millions from their homes.

Moreover, he writes, “Russia with the help of the Kremlin-controlled mass media for a year and a half promoted and exacerbated anti-Ukrainian attitudes.” But what is striking is the Ukrainians have not ceased to have more or less positive feelings about Russians even though they have the most negative ones about the Putin regime.

Their positive feelings were on display this past weekend when Ukrainians brought flowers to the Russian embassy in Kyiv to express their sympathy after the Russian air crash in the Sinai. But their hostility to the Russian regime and to Vladimir Putin personally is so great that even formerly pro-Moscow Ukrainian politicians hide that as if it were an unmentionable disease.

The only way things can change, Kiselyov says, is if there is a radical shift in Russia’s foreign policy, “a return to the status quote which existed before February 20, 2014.” But even then it will take “years if not decades” for attitudes to change. Unfortunately, in recent days, Moscow has shown it has no interest in improving relations.

Moscow is threatening to impose sanctions on Ukraine in January. It has ended the special regime for Ukrainians in Russia who fled the fighting. It has raided the Ukrainian library in Moscow. And it has continued its anti-Ukrainian propaganda and its attacks on anyone who criticizes Putin for what he has done.

But “the most important thing is that there is no basis for thinking that Putin intends to refrain from supporting the separatists who have seized power in parts of the Donbas despite the current quieting down in the east of Ukraine.” It seems clear, Kiselyov says, that “improvement of relations with Kyiv is not in either Moscow’s short-term or long-term plans.”.........................

16:37http://hvylya.net/news/digest/muzhenko-rasskazal-kak-peremestilis-rossiyskie-voyska-na-donbasse.htmlRussian forces withdrew from the line of demarcation in the Donbass, and spread on both sides of the temporarily occupied territory near the border of Ukraine and Russia.This was announced by Chief of General Staff Viktor Muzhenko transmits "Ukrinform"."There were no significant changes in the total number of Russian groups in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine and along the border has not happened. Militants continue to carry out provocations in the direction of Donetsk, especially at night, are unsighted forces fire on positions of ATU small arms, "- said Muzhenko.He stressed that the Ukrainian soldiers refrained from retaliatory fire.

The three shots made at Prosecutor General Shokin’s office apparently were fired from the building across the road owned by Kliuev brothers, said chief military prosecutor Anatoly Matios. Shokin’s life was saved by armored windows in his office, he says, Ukrayinska Pravda reports.

The sniper, who used a heat vision device, was aiming at the place where the prosecutor general sits.

Viktor Shokin got in the spotlight a number of days ago by making a loud arrest of Hennady Korban, a tycoon and insider of major Ukraine oligarch Kolomojsky.

In the next two weeks the Health Minister (Alexander Kvitashvili), Energy Minister (Volodymyr Demchyshyn) and Education Minister (Serhiy Kvit) will be dismissed, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said in an interview with Politico.

In addition, the Prime Minister announced the introduction of a Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Politico reports.

“It’s too early to say who [will come into office], this could shatter the coalition,” he explained. “We are in talks with the president. But the quicker we announce the better.”

“There have been mistakes,” Yatsenyuk admitted to Politico. “But I will correct these mistakes with new folks sitting in the cabinet.”

It should be noted that Health Minister Alexander Kvitashvili, submitted his resignation letter in early July, but the parliament did not approve his move.

Ukrainian protesters demanded the release of politician Hennadiy Korban, head of the UKROP party, at a rally on November 3, claiming that his detention is politically motivated. Korban was arrested on October 31 on suspicion of embezzlement, involvement in kidnappings, and ties to organized crime.

Russia’s Defence Ministry has officially denied that Aleksandr Aleksandrov and Yevgeny Yerofeyev, captured in eastern Ukraine this May were Russian intelligence officers, however the men’s lawyers are seeking to have them recognized as prisoners of war who cannot be tried.

As reported here, the two men have radically changed their story since May. At that time they consistently confirmed to OSCE representatives, a Russian journalist, a well-known Russian human rights activist and others that they were serving Russian military intelligence [GRU] officers. At that time Russia claimed that the two had left the military at the end of 2014 and that they were in Donbas on their own initiative. Both men complained that they were being prevented from speaking to their families.

Yerofeyev had shifted his position before the preliminary hearing at the end of September. It was learned only a week ago that Aleksandrov’s family had taken on a new lawyer, with it suggested then that both men might now claim to have been in the ‘LNR militia’, as Russia has maintained.

Aleksandrov’s new lawyer Yury Hrabovsky spoke to Interfax Ukraine about the trial. It was he who informed that Russia’s Defence Ministry had officially ‘confirmed’ that the men had not been military servicemen, but working on contract for the ‘people’s militia’ of the so-called ‘Luhansk people’s republic’ [LNR].

On contract suggests that the line now taken is that they were not strictly volunteers, but were receiving payment for their services to the heavily Kremlin-funded ‘republic’.

Hrabovsky said that the defence was “in principle” happy with the decision of the Holosiyivsky District Court in Kyiv to schedule the trial on the actual charges for Nov 10. He asserts that they will prove their clients’ innocence and that all evidence for this will be provided taking the Geneva Convention into account.

“Since prisoners of war cannot be tried at all, and the prosecution has effectively recognized them as POW, yet is legally denying this status”.

When asked how the defence would argue that they were POW, he stated only really that the Geneva Convention clearly regulates all answers, and noted that the USA has widely used “such practice” regarding its soldiers who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He ignored the obvious difference between the cases. US soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan have US soldier status which America is in no way denying. Russia, on the other hand, has constantly denied, in the face of substantial evidence, that it is involved in the military conflict in Donbas. It is now claiming that the men were on their own and that they had, as Russian nationals, signed some kind of contract with formations which in May 2015 were still actively fighting the Ukrainian army.

Russia is, in fact, suggesting that they were doing what they claim two Ukrainians – Mykola Karpyuk and Stanislav Klykh – did in Chechnya in 1994-95. Both Ukrainians can prove that they were never even in Chechnya, let alone fighting on the side of Chechen rebels, unlike Yerofeyev and Aleksandrov who were both injured during fighting near Shchastya in the Luhansk oblast....................