More of HHS’s ObamaCare rates are out, and good news: They’re “lower than expected”!

posted at 3:21 pm on September 25, 2013 by Erika Johnsen

I always have to wonder: Lower than who expected, exactly? I suppose the “who” is meant to be a practically irrelevant 2012 CBO estimate in this case, and sure, such optimistic and friendly-sounding spin is a good way to mask the inconvenient reality that premiums will still be going up for a hell of a lot of Americans — but the fact that that’s the best headliner they could come up with leaves much to be desired.

While the Obama administration has been touting the oh-so-excellent numbers from blue states enthusiastically implementing ObamaCare of their own volition — including those whose health care costs are already among the costliest in the nation — we’ve been waiting to hear more comprehensive information about the 36 states in which the administration is fully or partially coordinating the ACA’s implementation. According to the glowing press release from HHS this morning finally getting some numbers a mere week before ObamaCare enrollment begins, “Premiums before tax credits will be more than 16 percent lower than projected” — doesn’t that sound nice, ya’ll? Via Reuters:

Americans will pay an average premium of $328 monthly for a mid-tier health insurance plan when the Obamacare health exchanges open for enrollment next week, and most will qualify for government subsidies to lower that price, the Obama administration said on Wednesday.

The figure, based on data for approved insurance plans in 48 states, represents the broadest national estimate for how much Americans will pay for health coverage under President Barack Obama’s healthcare reform law next year. The prices of the new plans are at the heart of a political debate over whether they will be affordable enough to attract millions of uninsured Americans. …

“For millions of Americans these new options will finally make health insurance work within their budgets,” HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said during a briefing with reporters.

The Obama administration is counting on signing up 7 million Americans in the first full year of reform through the state exchanges, including 2.7 million younger and healthier consumers who are needed to offset the costs of sicker members.

The report is hardly what you’d call “comprehensive” (as Politico notes, ahem), and while Sebelius happily touts that, for millions of Americans, “these new options will finally make health insurance work within their budgets” — she’s rather neglecting to mention that, for millions more, it will place health insurance squarely outside of the range of their budgets.

Avik Roy has his reliable followup to the administration’s roseate projections up at Forbes, chiding HHS’s report for “releasing a trickle of data and a load of spin”:

Based on a Manhattan Institute analysis of the HHS numbers, Obamacare will increase underlying insurance rates for younger men by an average of 97 to 99 percent, and for younger women by an average of 55 to 62 percent. Worst off is North Carolina, which will see individual-market rates triple for women, and quadruple for men.

“Premiums nationwide will also be around 16 percent lower than originally expected,” HHS cheerfully announces in its press release. But that’s a ruse. HHS compared what the Congressional Budget Office projected rates might look like—in 2016—to its own findings. Neither of those numbers tells you the stat that really matters: how much rates will go up next year, under Obamacare, relative to this year, prior to the law taking effect.

Former Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin agrees. “There are literally no comparisons to current rates. That is, HHS has chosen to dodge the question of whose rates are going up, and how much. Instead they try to distract with a comparison to a hypothetical number that has nothing to do with the actual experience of real people.”

And etcetera. Read on for more details about specific demographic averages and regional variations, but rest assured that the Obama administration and its supporters will definitely be using spin like this in their recently ramped-up PR gamble:

The White House on Tuesday kicked off a six-month campaign to encourage millions of Americans to sign up for health coverage under “Obamacare,” an effort in which the president and other political celebrities promote the law’s promise of subsidized health coverage. …

Next week, consumers in most states will begin to see more social media promotions from the Obama administration, targeting young adults in urban areas that are home to many of the nation’s estimated 47 million uninsured people, according to senior administration officials.

The effort coincides with an expected $1 billion marketing initiative from health insurers, hospitals and health systems, as well as public outreach efforts by groups ranging from AARP, churches and charities to the Walgreen and CVS pharmacy chains, officials said.

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That mid tier plan is a 70/30 policy. Meaning, you are stucK paying 30%. You are also stuck with the hospitals and doctors that accept it which is not many. For the majority of people who buy their own insurance, like me, we will pay more out of pocket for less coverage. Thanks, you gutless GOP hacks. I want YOU to have to purchase these plans and I want YOU to get a subsidy according to the same guidelines as the rest of us.

You dumb KKK flyover can’t understand basic math? The original rate before DeathCare was $100/month, the HHS early predictions said the new rate would be $800/month, but the finalized rate is only $500/month. Therefore you actually saved $300.

At 62, my hubby’s joints are beginning to scream (he delivers tooling to mfgrs), so he’s getting more and more serious about filing for disability, selling his bizz, and calling it quits.

He’s always lived FAR from the freeloader mentality, but having read up on how well others on disability can live, it’s become extremely appealing.
Hate that more than I can say, but I have no argument nor comeback.

His dreams were to sell his bizz and retire on HIS terms, but the clouds are gathering against him more and more every day.
Makes me wanna cry.

Ok, so the 27yo college grad who’s stuck flipping burgers @ 2 jobs, should be thrilled to know he only pays $300+ per month for sumpin he didn’t want, anyway ??

Gonna go over soooo swell.

pambi on September 25, 2013 at 3:27 PM

That 27 year old will find it far cheaper to not pay for health insurance and instead pay the ‘tax’….which will contribute to even more price increases as the majority of the youth who are assumed to participate will not.

Bishop on September 25, 2013 at 3:34 PM

Unfortunately, that is exactly how it will be spun – and the low information voters will lap it up. Just like ‘jobs created or saved’.

Back when I was 27, you know what would have been really great? Yep, to have the government make me pay $2700 per year for approved medical coverage I didn’t need. I would have been totally stoked to pay that money.

Yep, it is a ‘bronze plan’ and your stuck with a select network with a shrinking # of providers.
Many large National carriers will not even be operating in the exchange or cherry picked area’s…so options are shrinking dramatically.
In Fl..we have 30+ counties with one carrier choice. If you don’t like it..to effing bad.
This doesn’t even count the millions of people who will be locked out of the marketplace/exchange.

“For millions of Americans these new options will finally make health insurance work within their budgets,” HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said during a briefing with reporters.

For this statement to be the least bit comforting, it should be “At least a hundred million Americans……”.
most will qualify for government subsidies to lower that price, the Obama administration said on Wednesday.

And no one bothers to ask where these subsidies come from and who will be paying them. Moneytrees, D.C.’s greats crop.

That 27 year old will find it far cheaper to not pay for health insurance and instead pay the ‘tax’….which will contribute to even more price increases as the majority of the youth who are assumed to participate will not

Or just find it cheaper not to work at all, and then go on disability, food stamps, and Medicaid.

Standard gubmint budgeting math.
The current budget is $4 trillion. We WANT to spend $6 trillion next year, but we’re actually only going to spend $5 trillion – so that’s a draconian $1 trillion budget cut.
Same here with their healthcare quotes.

“…and most [Americans] will qualify for government subsidies to lower that price, the Obama administration said on Wednesday.”

And just who is paying for those government subsidies? The ever shrinking percentage of Americans who work and pay taxes.

The Obama regime is working night and day to get the majority of Americans hooked on big government. And once they get the percentage of people who pay no Federal taxes up from 47% to over 50%, its ballgame.

In a country where media and politically accepted logic means that “a decrease in a proposed budgeted increase in spending is referred to as a cut in spending“, this all makes sense.

When the commiecare exchanges open up the beginning of October, many people are in for a rude awakening. I am convinced many people still think it’s free.

Wait until they realize, that not only will they be paying $XXX per month which will probably be an increase over current rates, but their supercommie deductibles (or co-pays) will increase dramatically. Bronze/Silver/Gold…Give me a a break.

The funny thing is, the whitehousemedia is just delaying the inevitable.

Cruz was the tip of the spear. In a few weeks, there will be a lot of backtracking by a lot of folks.

The young people are getting screwed so the 6o year old will see a drop in his rate. If we buy insurance through the exchange, from the information now available, my husband and I will see a huge drop in our premiums. But I have yet to see what the plans will look like, so I reserve judgement, but I am pretty sure I will be dumping the $3000 a month crap I have now.

When the commiecare exchanges open up the beginning of October, many people are in for a rude awakening. I am convinced many people still think it’s free.

Wait until they realize, that not only will they be paying $XXX per month which will probably be an increase over current rates, but their supercommie deductibles (or co-pays) will increase dramatically. Bronze/Silver/Gold…Give me a a break.

The Obama administration is counting on signing up 7 million Americans in the first full year of reform through the state exchanges, including 2.7 million younger and healthier consumers who are needed to offset the costs of sicker members.

Remember back in 2009 when we were told it was such a disaster that 41 million Americans didn’t have health insurance? So Congress votes it into law in March 2010, and 3-1/2 years later the Obysmal administration is hoping to sign up 7 million people in a year, or about 17% of those without health insurance?

At that rate, it would take 6 more years (until 2019) to have everyone covered, which doesn’t count all those who lost their health insurance due to employers who prefer paying the fine (or Roberts tax) to buying health insurance for employees.

And forget about signing up 2.7 million younger healthier “consumers” for health insurance. If they’re under 26, they’ll just stay on Mommy and Daddy’s plan. Or just pay the fine and get health insurance the day they get hit by a bus.

What?!?
Even when I had to go buy my own family health insurance on the open market a few years ago, when the company I worked for had an outrageoulsy expensive policy, at the worst I only paid about $600 a month for full family coverage and reasonable deductibles and copays. And that was HALF of what the overly expensive company policy would have cost me.

Ok, I just have to ask, just to be sure – you do know what soylent green is made from?

dentarthurdent on September 25, 2013 at 4:02 PM

Well. They say it’s plankton and all sorts of good stuff. Healthy. I’d just assumed some soybeans. I was talking to my neighbor about it the other day. We’ve been meaning to have another discussion, but I haven’t been able find him home lately. In fact, the neighborhood seems kind of empty. But at least the trash trucks pick up every day now instead of once per week.

I’ve been able to make deep fried soylent green, “smokin’ green’ – tastes like pork. Quite a versatile product.

Former Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin agrees. “There are literally no comparisons to current rates. That is, HHS has chosen to dodge the question of whose rates are going up, and how much. Instead they try to distract with a comparison to a hypothetical number that has nothing to do with the actual experience of real people.”

This is not unlike what the proggies do in budget negotiations, but in reverse. The proggies ask for the moon initially, and when Republicans respond with a counteroffer of a few major asteroids, the proggies wail that “Republicans are slashing __”!

NEVER underestimate the power of social influence and acceptability. All of these threads about Obamacare and the trillions of extra dollars it will cost and the Republican Party splitting into two splinter groups–RINO “me too” cowards at one extreme and fanatical, suicidal kamikaze pilots fighting an unwinnable fight on the other–are the result of Chief Justice Roberts’ wife not wanting to be cut out of Washington’s “high caste” social events.

I pray to God, before the fanatics turn the public (the One thing we still have in our favor) against us that we realize: Obamacare has already been passed by Congress and endorsed both by the President and Supreme Court. The only way to overturn it is to elect more Republicans which will be hard to do if the public becomes alienated (with help from the MSM propaganda machine).

BTW the statement NO ENTITLEMENT HAS EVER BEEN REPEALED is, by itself, a totally defeatist statement. If that is true, since Obamacare is already a legal entitlement, WE HAVE ALREADY LOST. Such a statement is a little like saying I have never broken my leg therefore my leg is unbreakable.

Also there is ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE between Obamacare and other entitlements. Other entitlements always had bi-partisan support. Obamacare has NONE. This makes it highly likely that a coalition of unified Republicans, with public support, can with extreme difficulty, battling a dug-in bureaucracy, can ultimately prevail.

What?!?
Even when I had to go buy my own family health insurance on the open market a few years ago, when the company I worked for had an outrageoulsy expensive policy, at the worst I only paid about $600 a month for full family coverage and reasonable deductibles and copays. And that was HALF of what the overly expensive company policy would have cost me.

dentarthurdent on September 25, 2013 at 4:07 PM

Some of the differences in plan costs from state to state can be really shocking. Don’t know why. Bop could be in a high-cost state.

You don’t have to sign up for Obama Care next week, there is no urgency, you have until March 1, 2014. I like to know when the paper is due and when I can put something off to, this should be the most important info anyone hears all day.

A silver plan, the middle priced plan in the exchange – very few platinum plans will be available, has the following characteristics:

- a 90/10 or 80/20 co-insurance, $2500 deductible (single), and an out of pocket max of $6350. for a single person making 40,000 the cost will be around $4000 a year. The network will be tight, much tighter than you would like.

So if I am a youngster who got a job after college making over 40K and my employer drops coverage, my premium costs are going to triple, for an inferior plan, with a narrower network. And for families, it will be worse.

And guess what? In 2015, the rates are going up again and the networks are going to get narrower. Enjoy!

You don’t have to sign up for Obama Care next week, there is no urgency, you have until March 1, 2014. I like to know when the paper is due and when I can put something off to, this should be the most important info anyone hears all day.

Fleuries on September 25, 2013 at 4:41 PM

I have a good demotivational poster you’d like:
“PROCRASTINATION Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always pays off now.”

But with obumblescare, I think this one is more appropriate:
“PESSIMISM Every dark cloud has a silver lining, but lightning kills hundreds of people each year who are trying to find it.”

The report is hardly what you’d call “comprehensive” (as Politico notes, ahem), and while Sebelius happily touts that, for millions of Americans, “these new options will finally make health insurance work within their budgets” — she’s rather neglecting to mention that, for millions more, it will place health insurance squarely outside of the range of their budgets.

This is incorrect….in the old world order there was a budget decision. In the new world order, however, buying health insurance is a mandate. What will be squarly outside the range of their budget will be the rent, car, food, etc.

You crack me up, and I also have no idea what you are saying, but it sure is funny.

Fleuries on September 25, 2013 at 5:06 PM

Your post seemed to connect well with the procrastination poster.
I have a collection of DEmotivational posters on my computer. They’re take-offs of those motivational posters you see all over the place now in corporate offices and such – topics such as “Pride”, “Optimism”, “Integrity”, and such.
The posters I have are the flip side of those, topics such as – “Agony”, “Apathy”, Defeat”, “Failure” – all with some kind of applicable picture and a line like the 2 I quoted above.
I just think they’re hilarious – but I’m one of those sarcasm and satire oriented literalville engineer types – you know – “The optimist says the glass is half full, the pessimist says the glass is half empty, the engineer says the glass is twice as big as it needs to be”.

An additional anecdote, or would that be antidote(?), about my attitude and humor type: When I was at one of the military academies, they used to regularly make us sit through these indoctrination motivational speeches full of crap like “you’re the cream of the crop of America’s youth”, “you’re the best of the best of the best”, and such. At the usual line of “you’re the cream of the crop of America’s youth, and the cream always rises to the top”, some of us would be in the back of the room saying “so does the scum”.
In fact, John McCain is out demonstrating that very point today…

Our health insurance went up 40% last year. Company isn’t dropping insurance this year, but they haven’t told us how much it’s going to go up. Interesting little fact–employers only have to offer one plan that meets that 9% of income mark. Guess what’s going to happen to the other plans? Anyway, I’m not participating in Obamacare. Between medishares, concierge docs, and the ER my family will do just fine.

“For millions of Americans these new options will finally make health insurance work within their budgets,” HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said during a briefing with reporters.

Of course, their budgets will have to be adjusted to accommodate the largest tax increase in history.

And of course the REAL problem is patient access to actual health CARE: something which will be really scarce when all of the health providers quit, move to another country, or run their own “no insurance accepted” practices.

Obamacare can’t work unless all doctors agree to a lifetime of slavery, and all patients agree to let unaccountable political hacks dictate how, when, and whether they will receive medical treatment.

Yes. The Key in this SHELL GAME is the DEDUCTIBLE. That is Out of Pocket 100%. Comparisons have to take this in to account. Hummmmm someone knocking on the door…….

Whiterock on September 25, 2013 at 8:38 PM

The “pre-existing conditions” factor is also near impossible to put a value on. Personally if you have none is has no value, if you have them it can be extremely valuable, but from an actuarial point of view how to calculate it?