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Sources say Smitherman, who had been the presumed frontrunner to succeed departing Toronto Mayor David Miller in November 2010, could end his embryonic campaign because he is "decidedly less certain" he can win than he was last month.

While former health minister David Caplan fell on his sword for the electronic health records fiasco that Auditor General Jim McCarter pegged Wednesday at $1 billion, most of the transgressions happened on Smitherman's watch from 2003 until 2008.

That revelation, combined with Miller's surprise announcement two weeks ago he will not seek re-election next year – something that radically altered the landscape of the mayoral contest – has had a sobering effect.

"George is telling friends: `In my heart, I am going to run, but in my head, I'm not going to,'" said one well-placed insider Thursday.

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"We just don't think he's going," added another source, who is close to Premier Dalton McGuinty.

McGuinty last week publicly declared his top minister was staying put, despite weeks of Smitherman-fuelled speculation. "He's not going anywhere – you heard it here first," the premier said Sept. 29.

Smitherman insisted the heat he's facing in the eHealth debacle would not deter him as he continues to gauge support and prospects for a municipal bid.

"I'm not concerned. In the life in politics ... some time periods are better than others," he told reporters Thursday, admitting Caplan's resignation was a "searing" event.

"I've been in politics since I was 15 years old, almost 30 years now. Over the course of that time some people like you and some don't, some people admire your work and some don't. It's all part of a bigger package."

A source in Smitherman's nascent mayoral campaign maintained "he hasn't decided yet," and eHealth is not a factor.

"Does that make him decide his future sooner rather than later? No," said the campaign adviser.

Opposition parties are calling for Smitherman's ouster from cabinet, charging he slipped out the side door at the health ministry, leaving a time bomb for his successor.

"Seventy per cent of those untendered contracts ... happened under George Smitherman's watch. He should be stepping down," Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak said, accusing McGuinty of playing favourites in cabinet.

"Dalton McGuinty said that David Caplan resigned because he was at bat at the time. George Smitherman hit a home run when it came to giving out these untendered contracts," said Hudak.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath said the auditor general's exposé of sole-sourced contracts, questionable expenses and lax oversight is ammunition civic political rivals would exploit against Smitherman.

"I don't think a lot of the people in Toronto are enamoured with what's happening at eHealth, so I would say it's damaging to him, there's no doubt about it," said Horwath.

The eHealth controversy erupted because former Progressive Conservative leader John Tory pushed for disclosure of secret records through requests under freedom of information laws.

Tory, who finished second to Miller in the 2003 municipal election, is mulling a run at the mayoralty again next year and has considerable support waiting in the wings.

Now a radio host on Newstalk 1010, he declined comment Thursday, but his backers believe Smitherman's troubles are just what the doctor ordered.

"George publicly put a strong foot forward to scare (Tory) off," said a Tory confidant, referring to Smitherman's first public musings on seeking the mayoralty last month that were front-page news.

"That appears to have backfired."

At Queen's Park, pressure is mounting on Smitherman to "make a decision within the next two to three weeks regardless."

"It's time to fish or cut bait," the high-ranking insider said.

Dubbed the "minister of scandals" Thursday by the Tories, Smitherman's continued presence on the Liberals' front bench is a lingering reminder of the eHealth mess.

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