Tropical Depression FLORENCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST
PRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED
IN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND
SUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON.
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 16.2N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.6N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 18.1N 51.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 20.4N 58.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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