If you struggled with the choice of a newfangled high-deductible health insurance option during open enrollment this fall, you can thank -- or perhaps curse -- conservative economist John C. Goodman for the experience.

The Federal Open Market Committee's action on Dec. 16 was historic in its boldness and its willingness to go further into unchartered waters. In addition to reducing the target Fed Funds rate from 1% to a range between 0% and 0.25%, the FOMC promised to use open market operations and other measures to sustain the increased size of its balance sheet.

Foreign trade has become more important to our economy in recent years. Exports and imports of goods and services have grown rapidly. A growing trade volume benefits our standard of living in several ways, but, as the recession deepens, my focus here will be limited to the impact of the trade balance on America's gross domestic product and, by implication, its job market. G.D.P and employment generally move in the same directions; so what I say about the impact on G.D.P generally applies to employment as well.

As the recession deepens, unemployment will continue to rise. How far it will rise largely depends on how much spending by consumers, businesses and the government slows - since demand for products affects whether companies expand or shrink their payrolls - and on how many people join or leave the labor force.