Journal of Sports Analytics - Volume 1, issue 2

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ISSN 2215-020X (P)
ISSN 2215-0218 (E)

The Journal of Sports Analytics (JSA) aims to be the central forum for the discussion of practical applications of sports analytics research, serving team owners, general managers, coaches, fans, and academics. We invite analytical research on any single sport or across sports that seeks to improve our understanding of the game or strategies for improving a team or a league.

We are currently soliciting submissions for future issues. All submissions will be double-blind peer reviewed. There are no author submission fees.

Abstract: The purpose of our editors’ introduction is three-fold. First, we provide a primer on sports law analytics for this special issue of the Journal of Sports Analytics . Second, we briefly summarize the papers accepted for inclusion in the special issue following double-blind peer review. Third, we present original research on one of the most vexing sports law analytics questions in the past decade— Is there evidence that the New England Patriots gained a competitive advantage from recording and analyzing opponents’ signals in contravention of NFL rules?

Abstract: This article discusses recent cases of alleged misappropriation, infringement, and/or theft of sports analytics intellectual property. First, it discusses the federal court case National Football Scouting v. Rang and analyzes the copyright and trade secret disputes at issue in that case. Second, it discusses the recent hacking of and theft from the Houston Astros’ proprietary database and analyzes the potential legal ramifications of the same under trade secret law and the federal Computer Fraud and Abuse Act.

Abstract: This study outlines the evolution of academic literature generated in response to Wolfers’s (2006) widespread-point-shaving hypothesis, which put forward that roughly 1% of college basketball games involve gambling-related corruption. Researchers attempted to replicate Wolfers’ findings in a variety of settings, examined the logistics involved in the act of point shaving, developed a theoretical model of team strategy, and used a variety of other novel approaches to better understand the root cause of the suspicious statistical anomalies identified. It offers evidence that sports analytics research is highly robust in academic settings because the methods employed and inferences drawn are subjected to…the scrutiny of competing researchers having dissenting opinions and a strong incentive to publish.
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Abstract: Beginning March 2015, the National Basketball Association (NBA) started the public assessment of officiated events in close game situations, where teams are within five points with two or less minutes to play. This ex-post league evaluation of officials’ actions allows for a much improved analysis of referee biases like the home bias, preferential treatment of superstars, race and favoritism towards losing teams. Instead of relying on statistical frequency of calls and devoting it to biased decision making, in-game decision making is matched with reviewed broadcasting video in this paper. The empirical analysis for 113 games and 1229 total calls finds…no support of referee bias in foul calling.
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Abstract: The consensus across labor market research in sports and non-sports literature has shown that there is a significant interaction between age, ability, and performance. While this relationship is at the foundation of all acts of production or utility creation, little econometric work exploring the role of precocity in career success can be found in the literature. This study therefore examines the role of precocity on labor market outcomes of elite-level National Football League (NFL) players and, indirectly, assesses the on-field efficacy of the NFL’s age rule. The findings indicate that precocity, as measured by the age of entry into the…elite-level professional football labor pool, leads to better career success. That is, the younger a player is when he first enters the NFL labor market; the more successful he is likely to be.
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Abstract: After the 2015 AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots were accused of deflating their footballs to gain an unfair advantage over their opponents. A subsequent investigation by the NFL led to the publication of a report named after Ted Wells, its main author. The Wells report’s central conclusion was that the Patriots and their quarterback, Tom Brady, were at least generally aware of what was deemed to be probable illicit behavior by some of the Patriots employees responsible for football preparation. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell then penalized team and player with fines,…draft pick losses, and suspensions. This article evaluates the statistical analysis in the Wells report and finds fault with the set of hypotheses it tests, the way in which it tests them, the robustness of its test results, and the conclusions it draws from its tests. We also highlight problems with the quality of the data used in the report, and sketch a more appropriate interpretation of the evidence presented to the NFL. We conclude by discussing the use and interpretation of statistical evidence in legal and quasi-legal procedures generally.
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Abstract: Scouting is a major part of talent acquisition for any professional sports team. In the National Hockey League (NHL), the ‘market’ for scouting is set by the NHL’s Central Scouting Service which develops a ranking of draft eligible players. In addition to the Central Scouting rankings, NHL teams use their own internal scouting to augment their knowledge of eligible players and develop their own rankings. Using a novel statistical approach we show in this paper that the additional information possessed by teams provides better rankings than those of Central Scouting. Using data from the 1998 to 2002 NHL drafts, we…estimate that the average yearly gain per team from their internal scouting is between $1.7MM and $5.2MM. These values are consistent across the three measures of player productivity that we consider: cumulative Games Played, cumulative Time On Ice and cumulative Goals Versus Threshold where we aggregate these metrics across the first seven years post draft. We used this time frame since teams generally retain rights to their draft picks for seven years. Further, we find that no individual team outperformed the others in terms of draft performance.
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Abstract: Over the past several decades, National Football League (NFL) executives have tried to devise ways to deter off-field misconduct of its players. Since the year 2000, the NFL instituted a Personal Conduct Policy governing the actions of players already in the league. The policy was further modified in April 2007 by Commissioner Roger Goodell. The question the present research asks is what is the relationship between an amateur player’s misconduct in his final year of college and his overall pick in the NFL Draft. By extension, the present research looks to see if this relationship changes with the modification of…the Personal Conduct Policy. Examining the NFL Draft from 1999 through 2013, the present research finds that misconduct decreased a player’s draft position meaning his draft position improved. However, the modification of the Personal Conduct Policy leads to an insignificant result suggesting that team executives are beginning to examining an amateur player’s misconduct more closely with the new policy.
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Keywords: Misconduct, amateur draft, personal conduct, National Football League