The US is set to drown the world in oil

The sheer scale of this new production
dwarfs that of every other country in the world and would spell disaster for
the world’s ambitions to curb climate change – the effects of which we’re already
witnessing through massive heat waves, flooding, and extreme weather.

Earlier this year, we crunched the numbers
from the latest climate science and industry forecasts and found that we can’t
afford to drill up any oil
and gas from new fields anywhere in the world if we’re to avoid the worst
impacts of climate change.

In our analysis, we assumed that existing oil and
gas fields are going to keep on pumping for as long as they can. That means
that the decisions about new projects will shape the future for the oil and gas
industry and our climate.

And when it comes to these new oil and gas
fields, production from the US is set to eclipse the rest of the world.

Production from new fields in the US is set
to be eight times that of the next largest producing country – Canada. New US
production is forecast to be 20 times that of Russia and more than 1.5 times
the total of all other countries combined.

Output is set to be so vast that if US
states were treated as countries, Texas is forecast to be the biggest producer of
new oil and gas in its own right, with production nearly four times that of
Canada.

Seven out of the top 10 biggest oil and gas
producers would be US states, with only Canada, Brazil and Russia making it
onto the list. Pennsylvania is set to be the third largest producer of new oil
and gas, producing more than double that of Russia.

If things don’t change, by the end of the next
decade, new oil and gas fields in the US will produce more than twice what Saudi
Arabia produces today.

The future of our changing climate and its
increasingly devastating impacts across the globe will be shaped by future oil
and gas production. And if the future of
oil and gas production is decided by what happens in new fields, then it will
be determined by what happens in the US in the next decade.

More oil and gas is a big problem

To avoid the worst impacts of climate
change, our analysis shows that global oil and gas production needs to drop by
40% over the next decade. Yet, instead of declining, US oil and gas output is
set to rise by 25% over this time, fueled by expansion in new fields.

By now, it should go without saying that
burning more fossil fuels is a disaster for the world’s climate. Each extra
barrel of oil that comes out of the ground becomes more planet-warming CO2
going into the atmosphere.

The recent National Climate Assessment
starkly laid out the risks the US faces from climate change. These include more
extreme temperatures, rainfall, high tides, coastal flooding and forest fires,
as well as worsening air quality, all threatening the health and wellbeing of
the American people. These risks are highest for those that are already
vulnerable, including low-income communities, some communities of color,
children, and the elderly. The financial costs are staggering too, under a high
emissions scenario where the world fails to mitigate climate change costs
to the US economy could exceed $500 billion a year by 2090.

In addition to these harmful impacts and
costs in the US, impoverished countries will continue to be hit the hardest by
climate change and are at a disadvantage when it comes to managing these
impacts.

So if all this new oil and gas production
goes ahead in the US, it would drown the world in oil and gas – slowing down
the shift from fossil fuels to renewables and releasing vast amounts of planet-heating
greenhouse gases.

With respect to the other three quarters of
US oil and gas production that takes place on privately owned land, the next president
should look to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies. Official estimates for such
subsidies range from $4.6
billion to a staggering $649 billion a year.

A recent study found that based on recent
low oil prices, up to half of new US oil fields rely on government subsidies to be economically viable. This means that without these subsidies, those projects wouldn’t proceed. For the projects that are viable without
subsidies, the money will go into the pockets of the oil and gas companies, giving
them more money to invest in more new projects or simply boost corporate
profits.

According to Greenpeace's tracker of the Democratic presidential candidates, almost all are now on the record in favor of ending fossil fuel subsidies.

Scrapping these subsidies can also free up
huge sums of money to ensure a fair deal for workers and communities that are
currently reliant on polluting high carbon industries, through what is known as
a just transition.

To ensure these policies become a reality,
whoever wins the election will need to be free of the fossil fuel industry’s
huge political influence over their administration. That’s why campaigners have
now pushed 21 of the Democratic candidates to sign the No
Fossil Fuel Money pledge, rejecting the financial support of the fossil
fuel industry for their campaign.

Time for a proper debate

Climate change isn’t a single issue topic;
how governments act to curb climate change will touch almost every aspect of the
economy and society overall. The climate crisis deserves dedicated space for
the Democratic candidates to fully explain their plans and debate them with one
another, as well as to be tested on their public commitments.

Here are the top questions we’d like to see
the candidates answer in a dedicated climate debate:

What action do you intend to take to curb
oil and gas production from public lands and waters?

Will you end government subsidies for oil
and gas production? How will you ensure the money saved benefits the
communities affected?

Will you commit to not approving new oil
and gas pipelines, export terminals and other infrastructure?

How will you ensure your appointees to key
agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the
Interior serve the public interest and not the fossil fuel lobby?

The American people deserve to know what
these candidates’ plans are and where their priorities lie.

This week, the DNC will vote on whether or
not to host a dedicated climate debate – we believe it’s vital they do.

The next US president needs to have a credible
plan for tackling climate change. And any credible plan to tackle climate
change has to prevent the US from drowning the world in oil.