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THERE’S a template for a coup and it goes something like this. The government is paralysed, Nawaz is on the warpath, the boys have had enough, the chief moves in.

Good enough for before, good enough for again.

Throw in a bit of anti-US and anti-India hysteria and you may even wonder why we haven’t already had a coup.

But the story has deviated a bit. No one seems to be cheering on the only chap who can pull the trigger.

It’s as if we still have a new chief; a fresher still finding his feet.

What’s really needed is an institutional intervention, folk are suggesting. This is bigger than any individual, folk are cautioning. Many will have to work together if the country is to be saved, they are advising.

It’s as if no one wants the chief to become chief executive.

Something is off. Rewind to Kayani and his ascent some 11 years ago; a reluctant transfer of military power by Musharraf in the midst of a desperate struggle to cling to political power.

It took a while for Kayani to settle in and assert control. There were the snide remarks about the son of a JCO not being the best fit for the most prestigious post in the land.

There were questions about whether a direct move from the ISI to GHQ was a sound idea. There were murmurs of favouritism for political reasons and debates about whether Musharraf had been conned.

Kayani eventually overcame all of that. But he had to work at it. Hard.

He declared a Year of the Soldier. He won over the troops with pay raises and focusing on military matters. He cultivated the media. He developed a professional mystique — the thinking soldier.

And he eventually figured out how to navigate institutional factions and political circles to the point that pulled off the greatest of cons, a second term for himself.

More than a decade later, the stain of the second term and political tumult at the time of his ascension have obscured the original reality: Kayani had an uncertain start as chief.

But then came Raheel. And the script was replayed.

Raheel too took a while to settle in and assert control. His pedigree was impeccable but his intellect was questioned. Why had a mediocre general superseded at least one perfectly good candidate and been picked ahead of a couple of quality options below him?

Was he the right man for the job? He wasn’t going to be Nawaz’s man, but had Nawaz figured out that apolitical was all that he needed in his war against Imran?

As the original dharna neared, the doubts deepened and the dissent threatened to spill out into the open. Rumours of a cabal of generals trying to pressure their boss into doing their bidding were unleashed.

Like Kayani before him, Raheel eventually overcame all of that. But he too had to work at it. Hard.

After an uncertain 10 months or so, Raheel figured out that to be king you had to make sure people knew you were king and feared you as a king. The cult of Raheel began to be born.

Operation Zarb-i-Azb was its crown jewel and ThankYouRaheelSharif its tagline.

And now to the problem. The same thing has happened with Bajwa. He came in under a cloud of suspicion. How had number six been elevated to number one? Why were Nawaz and co so sure he would be their man?

To the suspicions was added a bit of aggravation. There had been an heir apparent. He was thought to have Raheel’s support and was a favourite of the troops.

He had the right credentials, the right reputation and the right approach. But he was wronged; humiliatingly superseded for no other reason than civilian cherry-picking.

And perhaps most of all for the unlucky Bajwa, he’s had to deal with the shadow of Raheel and the seemingly never-ending strength of his faction.

Still, nothing that could not be overcome. And nothing fundamentally different to what Kayani and Raheel had to endure.

The problem: the chief doesn’t seem to be overcoming his uncertain start.

There’s a political war out there, a foreign crisis brewing in Afghanistan and DC, and institutions under attack. That’s the kind of stuff out of which reputations are made.

Even better, all the events have been slow-moving and relatively easy to predict. Ten months in, it was set up rather nicely.

Chief becomes more assertive, a fawning public and braying media exhorts him to do more and then — the chief either decides to let democracy continue out of the goodness of his heart or goes in for the kill.

Except, this time no one seems to be cheering on the only chap who can pull the trigger. It’s as if no one wants the chief to become chief executive. It’s as if we still have a new chief; a fresher still finding his feet.

Something is off. And it may not be good for any of us.

The best-case scenario is a chief who is sure he can’t take over, whether he wants to or not. We’re clearly no longer in that terrain.

The next best thing is a chief who is sure he can take over, but doesn’t want to take over. If we were blessed, that’s where we’d be right now.

But in the realm of a chief who everyone thinks is too soft to take over and in any case don’t want him to take over?

The last 6-7 lines summarise a very clearly thought and bravely penned article
Good work Stay safe

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Indian

Oct 08, 2017 09:22am

What a brave article. Kudos.

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Banglore Guy

Oct 08, 2017 09:46am

Spoke his heart out, as he has been doing in the past. Wish we had such powerful, fearless journalism and openness of thought in India. Alas now! Kudos to Dawn.

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Asad

Oct 08, 2017 10:01am

It is the institution not the person, it is time the politicians and pundits realize that and know that the institution acts in the form of a cabal of generals not just the chief when it feels its interests are in jeopardy and its formal ascension is facilitated by the superpower for its own nefarious purposes. That critical juncture, we have almost reached. We have a foreign minister who is asserting the civilian point of view despite military reservations and an ousted prime minister who refuses to go away quietly and most of all a superpower who wants to manage CPEC even though its not its project and Afghanistan, and prefers dealing with the generals.Nothing the generals do is ad hoc and irrational as the author suggests in that they will act because they are "being tempted" to prove others wrong. When they do act and it might be soon, the people of this country will face another lost decade as a colonial lackey.

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Inclusive political institution

Oct 08, 2017 10:13am

An interesting article, but skipping some realities.This time as some analyst believes a political party is frustrated,desperately desire to provoke and beg for totalitarian system to be clamped, at least they may get out of virtuous proceedings of courts. But the other side is too smart to be lured, they have sustained distance, and watching the events with great care. Let the law takes its way,and let the people see, how the nation autocorrect itself.

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Shash

Oct 08, 2017 10:42am

Dude, are u for real ? Great Analysis as usual

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Muhammad Ali

Oct 08, 2017 10:58am

We probably need a decoded version. Its too cryptic to understand.

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Praveen Chopra

Oct 08, 2017 11:18am

One of the best articles I have ever read. Dawn is an enlightened paper.

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Tahira

Oct 08, 2017 11:25am

Bravo. What a fantastic and objectively written article. Kudos to author.

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Sailesh Akkaraju

Oct 08, 2017 11:38am

As always a great article from a great writer. I think many people do not realize that Bajwa, Raheel and Kayani are unsung heroes in their own right. Yes, I am an Indian and very proud of my country. It is important to realize like George Washington and Cincinnatus, to walk away from the temptation of absolute power even if you feel that your country is stumbling a little. Yes, Pakistan is stumbling a little bit, but it will find its way in time. An imperfect democracy is always better than anything else we have got. So, yes, let the corruption be there, it will come down in time. Build hospitals and schools. Have a free press ( And you do not get any better than Dawn, so that is covered). Don't worry about things not in your control. We are moving towards a peaceful and prosperous South Asia and we will get there.

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ARK

Oct 08, 2017 11:41am

in hindsight analysis direction of causality often gets reversed. Zarb didnt happened because RS wanted to be a hero, he became a hero because Zarb happened. Sometimes the simplest explanations are the most logical. The honorables did what they did note because they were told to do so but because they were not told not to do so. The Generals have learned the hard way that its easy to become heroes and easier to become the villains. The Honorables are going through the learning curve. Every once in a while a prime minister will be sacked but then democracy aint going nowhere

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abbottonian 43

Oct 08, 2017 11:44am

well assessed sir ...

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Hussain

Oct 08, 2017 12:05pm

Almeida belongs to a community of Goan Catholics who migrated to Karachi more than a hundred years ago. His family is said to speak Konkani at home. Many members of the community left for western countries after the Partition, but about 15,000 members still live in Pakistan. Reportedly, he first visited Goa, India in 2012 to participate in an arts and literary festival, and then followed it up with two more visits....

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mm

Oct 08, 2017 12:24pm

@SM rightly described

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AMJAD

Oct 08, 2017 12:31pm

A piece of speculative/ imaginative twist of facts with no facts and evidence to support his baseless claims. Not sure how the title is in line with all the crap below the heading.

Most of his work revolves around one goal; demonizing state and it's institutions. The proof is all enemies of state or those ignorant of the full picture admire his work without without pointing to the de-merits.

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King

Oct 08, 2017 12:40pm

@Hussain wow great analysis if used this much time in country current situation you also agree with this

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King

Oct 08, 2017 12:41pm

That's brave

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mm

Oct 08, 2017 12:54pm

@AMJAD agreed with first para of your comment and quiet on second para

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Sattowalia

Oct 08, 2017 12:55pm

@Raheel Well-said!

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Muzamil Hamid Lone

Oct 08, 2017 01:31pm

@Hussain Casting aspersions is an art!

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K V V Shanbhague

Oct 08, 2017 02:04pm

@Hussain

And being a Goan ... I may add here that people were impressed with his love for Pakistan ....they admired his bonding with the land of his birth.

" O ye who believe! Avoid suspicion as much (as possible): for suspicion in some cases is a sin: And spy not on each other behind their backs. ”

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Syed F. Hussaini

Oct 08, 2017 02:42pm

The foreign policy needs some fine-tuning.

It must look like the politicians did this fine-tuning, not the makers of the policy.

While dealing with the outside world, the politicians make a good cushion in between and an excellent fall guy for the domestic audience.

Plus, the post-retirement packages are getting more lucrative.

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Wasif

Oct 08, 2017 03:12pm

Why our media want coup? Or always promote fears of coup. Can we accept that, if our useless politicians are on the track no one dare to take over to show them how to do the things

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Joydeep Pune

Oct 08, 2017 03:57pm

@Syed F. Hussaini - Sir - basic point is double game is all over. We are missing the forest for the woods!

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Shahid

Oct 08, 2017 04:34pm

No harm in keeping at it. After all only practice makes one perfect. Even tempting gods may do the trick. But for and about what? In the land of heirs, perpetual forecasting? Who knows when is the moment of approval, if any.

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Syed F. Hussaini

Oct 08, 2017 04:52pm

@Joydeep Pune

May be.

Thanks.

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Farzana

Oct 08, 2017 05:17pm

What is this all about?Whatever is going on in military is Bajwa's concern.You go and find something good about your owners who pay you a substantial amount for all this work.

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Sattowalia

Oct 08, 2017 05:27pm

Contributes nothing more than what we already know. It doesn't go beyond "what" to "why" question. However serves purpose of feeding a particular audience.

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Aysha

Oct 08, 2017 05:29pm

@waleed would you mind sharing a single bit from the other side with us?

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mitali

Oct 08, 2017 05:44pm

great article

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Faisal Ahmed

Oct 08, 2017 05:59pm

Indeed the mindset is changed on both ends, the civilians are no more so aggressive to reply positive on any dramatized situation, on the other hand the establishment has less will to open further forums for justifications.

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Ragu

Oct 08, 2017 06:20pm

It takes much guts to write this in Pakistan; this is a nation that adores its warriors, no matter what the consequences are. In Pakistan, democracy has never been allowed to mature, and overcome its imperfections somewhat slowly, like it does in most other places. So, when do we know a ruler is preferred by the people of Pakistan ever? May be by the lack of street protests alone.

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azaad

Oct 08, 2017 08:00pm

Wow. You have my respect sir and so does Dawn. More power to you.

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Harris Mustafa

Oct 08, 2017 08:10pm

Good fiction

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Asim shahzad

Oct 08, 2017 08:49pm

But the rift in Pakistan will remain perpetual as the society is power loving.

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Owais Mangal

Oct 08, 2017 09:28pm

Article 6 candidate, Cyril.

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Parvez

Oct 08, 2017 10:50pm

Brilliant ...... you said exactly what I had in mind.

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Syed Chishti

Oct 08, 2017 11:25pm

Well analyzed. My question would be really seeing the decades of Pakistani politics and those who came into power from uniform, all were eventually looking for a way to get established as a political leader and lead the country in uniform with half cooked military and half cooked civilian government. Just to be legitimate they all seeked support of administration or whom we call the bureaucrats. The military itself cannot rule the country through military administration, its the most illogical option.The General can takeover when they see the sovereignty of state is in jeopardy. But then to run the administration of the country besides military might the General needs the civilian muscle and the brain of civilian bureaucracy.Which none of the past military rulers whether in uniform initially or through their era of staying in power as a dictator always took support and shelter of administration, so called they ruled under the authority of civilian bureaucracies. Martial law is history.

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jayakumar

Oct 09, 2017 12:03am

As always,very skilfully written. Enjoy reading your articles sir.

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Roshan Ali

Oct 09, 2017 01:47am

Journalism at its best . You are brave cyril .

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lastsamurai

Oct 09, 2017 02:43am

Articles written my Mr. Almeida is something I never miss on Dawn.

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Akil Akhtar

Oct 09, 2017 03:27am

One track agenda against the Military while ignoring utter miss management and governance and mega corruption of the politicians...

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The Truth Teller

Oct 09, 2017 06:12am

A bad story well told.

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shome

Oct 09, 2017 07:01am

Who wants wear a Taj, when person seating on the throne is towing the army line, out fear, or out of insecurity, or out of survival or simply for saving life, no one knows!!

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Asad

Oct 09, 2017 07:18am

I think Mr.Bajwa has greatness within him and army cabal that u speak of with such delight may actually exist but bajwa is a different idea. i believe he may be the first in our history who has to enact marshal law and let the civilians come in and rebuild the democratic setup whilst being content with his spot in the power sphere.

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Murugan

Oct 09, 2017 08:42am

You are simply great!!!

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Last Word

Oct 09, 2017 09:04am

Do those who control the control the country with remote control without accountability need to do anything silly ?

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Tauqir

Oct 09, 2017 09:22am

some clear thinking

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aleem

Oct 09, 2017 09:39am

The resignation of Rizwan Akhtar says something else.

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BAXAR

Oct 09, 2017 12:54pm

@Syed F. Hussaini "The foreign policy needs some fine-tuning.." When politicians think about the word foreign, the associated word is not policy, but account or/and property. What fine tuning are you expecting from them? Can you spell out the foreign policy of your preferred politician, and explain what you like in that? Can you also explain who, in your understanding, is against that policy, and for what reason?

Template is not changed but external environment is not supportive for such actions of Armed forces.

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Sohail Ahmed

Oct 09, 2017 05:35pm

Outrageously provocative article and absolutely twisted articulation of realities; both current and past. Very surprising it is written by Dawn staff member

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Senatian

Oct 10, 2017 07:06am

Pakistan zindabad.

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krishan chand

Oct 10, 2017 08:10am

A good illuminating read for me!

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Habib

Oct 10, 2017 09:14am

you have written some good points but not all... should go through your article again

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Jalaluddin S. Hussain

Oct 10, 2017 09:54am

If I understand the writer correctly, Pakistan will be better off to pursue and independent foreign policy and keep the Deep State in the place where it belongs!

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ARK

Oct 10, 2017 10:56am

@Sailesh Akkaraju Positive outlook. Its just sad that a great civilization with thousands of years of shared history is so divided that they can't even tolerate each others actors and cricketers. We have gone downhill.

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AZ

Oct 10, 2017 12:59pm

Very well written

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Aseem

Oct 10, 2017 03:59pm

@Farzana I agree. It's really time for the boys to step in and clear the mess. Our country was always saved by generals, and economy was put back on track. Gen Zia's regime was the golden period, followed by Musharraf and others.