Appropriate to the name of the site, this seems like hot air and premature. Mr. Silver currently has

Obama RomneyNC 48.0 51.3VA 49.9 49.2FL 49.5 49.9OH 50.7 48.2

So, NC doesn't look too good, but then it mostly hasn't. VA and FL look like races that one would want to keep close tabs on. OH still looks pretty safe for Obama.

More to the point, perhaps, we are in a period of very volatile polling. In particular, it appears that Romney got a strong bounce from the debate and the immediate coverage, but that this faded fairly quickly, perhaps in part because of the jobs report and perhaps partly the press getting less rabid.

Any "we don't need to pay attention any more" at this point is wishful thinking, self-deception, naiveite, or an attempt at manipulation.

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