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"Do not use data models for forecasting": Paper at M4 Conference

Scott Armstrong presented a commentary on the findings of the M4-Competition at the M4 Conference in New York City on December 10, 2018. The paper, by Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green, concludes that data models should not be used for forecasting, describing six reasons why. The reasons are not new—for example Einhorn pointed out the lack of theoretical support in "Alchemy in the behavioral sciences" in 1972—but they remain true.

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