First, we want to thank you again for a great first year. We learned a lot and hope you did as well. As May came to a close and June started, we resolved 7 questions. Six of the seven questions were MITRE IARPA-issued questions, and one was an internal question (Q-ID 44, concerning Mubarak). Reflecting on all questions up until this point, we are able to take stock on how the market performed on DAGGRE questions versus MITREIARPA questions, and it turns out the average performances on the respective sets of questions are surprisingly close (only including binary questions). In fact, they’re exact within 3 decimal places (0.2566 vs. 0.2562). So here’s to consistency!!

We had a large surge in participation at the start of February, and this surge sustained our improved performance over the last four months. That said, as questions resolved faster than new ones were posted (no new MITREIARPA questions in the past month), and the weather warmed up, we have noticed a somewhat predictable drop in participation. We can see this drop over the last three weeks below in the number of trades per day and the number of trades per question and the number of edited questions.

We’re not too worried (yet) about the drop in activity, as it coincides with fewer questions. With that in mind, we’re please to unveil the first our new summer collection of forecasting questions: