Monied Burbs vs. Boom Towns in 2012 Race

Mitt Romney shakes hands with supporters as he greets and thanks Fairfax County Republican Committee volunteers at their headquarters in Fairfax, Va., in October. Fairfax is a Monied Burb.

The road to victory in U.S. presidential elections almost always goes through the winding streets and cul-de-sacs of suburban America. In fact, the urban, suburban, rural categorization of voters is one of the most time-tested in American politics, with a strong emphasis usually placed on that middle group as crucial.

But the suburbs are complicated thing, particularly in the modern sprawling communities that make up the U.S. in 2012. The divides within them run deep and data from 16 months of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows just how deep when it comes to President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

To get a handle on the differences in America’s picket-fenced, wealthy counties Patchwork Nation generally divides them into two types – the largely suburban Monied Burbs and the more exurban Boom Towns. And over the last 16 months, through the many ups and downs of the campaign and the economy, a consistent pattern has emerged: The Monied Burbs are (and have been) Mr. Obama’s turf and the Boom Towns are (and have been) Mr. Romney’s.

Head-to-head polling data from 2011 gave Mr. Obama a six-point edge in the Burbs and Mr. Romney a six-point edge in the Boom Towns. Numbers from the beginning of 2012 show a slight deepening of the divide. Mr. Obama now has a seven-point edge in the Burbs and Mr. Romney an eight-point edge in the Boom Towns.

The stability of that divide is noteworthy and it helps explain why the oddsmakers still expect a close race this fall. The Burbs and Boom Towns both hold more than 60 million people and make up big chunks of key states – like Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia.

The divide in suburban/exurban presidential preference isn’t new. It’s played an important role in recent presidential races like 2000 and 2004. It’s based on some very real economic and cultural differences. And those differences could be more obvious and significant in 2012.

If, for instance, this campaign really is about the economy, it stands to reason the suburban Monied Burbs and exurban Boom Towns would see things differently.

March unemployment figures, the latest available at the county level, showed that the jobless rate in Monied Burbs was 7.7% – below the 8%-line many analysts cite as significant and well-below the national figure of 8.2%. In the Boom Towns it March unemployment stood at 8%.

Throughout the recession and the sluggish recovery, the suburban Monied Burbs have outperformed the nation as a whole – and the Boom Towns. Look at the map below around the major population centers in the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes region and you will generally see lighter colors (lower unemployment) in Monied Burbs around the major cities – New York, Washington, Philadelphia, Cleveland.

On top of the unemployment numbers, the Boom Towns were also hit especially hard in the housing crunch. The homes that sprouted on the fringes of metro areas in the boom also led to extra pain in the bust. And that pain lingers. More than 64,000 foreclosed homes were sold in Boom Town counties in the first quarter of 2012, according to RealtyTrac. No other county type was close.

Furthermore, the divide between the suburbs and exurbs is about more than economics. The exurban Boom Towns are younger, with more people between the ages of 20 and 34 and more young families. Polls show they also lean more to the right culturally. There are higher percentages of evangelical adherents in the Boom Towns (20% versus 13% in the Monied Burbs) and more conservative talk radio listeners.

In other words, the suburban Monied Burbs and exurban Boom Towns may generally be thought of as “suburbia” – both have the nice houses, cars, colleges degrees and Starbucks one would expect – but they are very different places with different focuses and concerns.

Mr. Obama won big in 2008, aided in part by economic stresses and Republican fatigue after a two-term presidency for George W. Bush and you could see the impact in the suburban/exurban divide. Mr. Obama won by a double-digit margin in the Monied Burbs and only narrowly lost the Boom Towns by five percentage points.

But the splits on key economic and cultural issues currently driving this presidential campaign are making that kind of overwhelming win less likely in 2012 for either candidate. If anything the voters in the suburbs and exurbs look like they are being driven further into their respective political camps.

If that continues in those two key blocks of counties, the 2012 presidential race seems destined to stay a close race down to the wire.

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