Precious Metals

Posted May 29, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

As someone who was taken in by the gold and silver bugs and went all in 3 years ago I am now left out of pocket and can’t sell my investments as I’d lose nearly half. As I am only a small time investor how much longer do I now have to wait before the cycle turns again so I can recoup my money back?

Thanks for all your assistance, your views from behind the curtain are truly enlightening.

Kind regards

L

ANSWER: We are preparing the gold forecast report. It is likely to press lower and you have to consider it may bottom in the $900 area. That is the risk. Will it rise thereafter? Yes, of course. I have disagreed with the gold promoters because they recklessly sell ideas without experience as a trader or respect for the people they mislead. This is not a soap box to push your beliefs upon someone else.

It is always about timing. Yes, there will be a default on the national debts and there will be a currency reset. Those things are as inevitable as death itself for all things die, including governments. Anyone can say that. It is common sense that the current monetary system will not survive unless you work in government for then they claim they are the exception to economics because they are government. There are no exceptions.

What our models are about is simply trying to ascertain the timing by looking at HOW LONG it takes these to develop. You cannot determine that by personal opinion. My personal guess would not be any better than someone else. Who knows. The point is to try to quantify this with unbiased modeling – not personal opinion. What someone “thinks” will happen may be good for conversation at a bar. It does not form a foundation upon which to invest.

Here is the model just using the Monthly Reversals on one level. This is not some contest for personal opinion. It is simply what is the market doing yes or no. Opinion as to manipulations, governments, whatever, is nice for talk. However, you cannot trade on opinion unless you wish to lose everything because it is human emotion that creates the boom and bust cycle. This is my point. EVERYTHING rises and falls. Only a trader survives. There is a time to BUY and there is a time to SELL. There are no exceptions. Claiming there is some dark force at work is absurd. Who cares what the reason is for a rally or decline. The market is always right and it does not matter anyway for the markets move in ANTICIPATION of what they expect might happen regardless if it does or not.