Oscars arrive with predictability out of picture

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Too predictable. That's the persistentcomplaint about the Academy Awards, whose drama generally is sapped by a glut of earlier award shows that spell out what films will win at the Oscars before the show starts. Not this time - at least for Sunday's top prize. With the best-picture lineup expanded to 10 films instead of theusual five, the science-fiction spectacle and box-office behemoth"Avatar" is head-to-head with the low-budgeted, low-grossing IraqWar story "The Hurt Locker." The acting prizes look as predictable as ever, with Oscarsexpected to go to Sandra Bullock as best actress for "The BlindSide," Jeff Bridges as best actor for "Crazy Heart," Mo'Nique assupporting actress for "Precious" and Christoph Waltz assupporting actor for "Inglourious Basterds." "Avatar" won best drama at the Golden Globes, traditionally agood gauge for how the Oscars might play out. But the Globes werenearly two months ago, the first major ceremony in the long buildupto the Oscars. A lot has happened since. "The Hurt Locker" dominated honors from Hollywood tradegroups, including guilds representing directors, writers andproducers. It also won best-picture and five other prizes at theBritish Academy Film Awards. The films bring some behind-the-scenes drama. "Avatar"director James Cameron and "The Hurt Locker" director KathrynBigelow were married from 1989-91, making this the first timeex-spouses have competed for the directing Oscar. Bigelow would be the first woman ever to win best director, aprize Cameron earned with 1997's "Titanic." And one of Bigelow's fellow producers on "The Hurt Locker,"Nicolas Chartier, has been barred from attending the Oscars afterhe ran afoul of the awards rules by sending e-mails to academyvoters urging them to support his film over "Avatar." Overseers at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciencestook some heat after doubling the field to 10 films last summer.Many actors, filmmakers and others in Hollywood wondered if theOscars had lowered their standards by letting so many films intothe best-picture race. But the move has brought a different energy to the show, bothfor producers with films in the running and TV viewers who havegradually lost interest in the Oscars. The ceremony's TV ratingssank to an all-time low two years ago, then bounced back a bit lastyear. The top awards were utterly predictable both years, "No Countryfor Old Men" dominating two years ago and "Slumdog Millionaire"winning last time. Oscar organizers say they sense greater interest in the awardsall-around, from the A-list lineup that will strut the red carpetoutside Hollywood's Kodak Theatre to the stargazers watching on TVat home. "People seem to be talking about the movies. The idea thatwe've gone to 10 is something that's been a little controversial tosome people, even though we've done it before," said Tom Sherak,academy president. The Oscars often had 10 or more best-picturenominees until 1943. "It's created a conversation about the movies, and I don'tthink there's a clear-cut winner. We want it to be fun to watch,for people to have an interest in seeing what's going to happenwith these 10 movies," Sherak said. Also in the running for best picture: the football drama "TheBlind Side," the sci-fi thriller "District 9," the British teentale "An Education," the World War II saga "InglouriousBasterds," the Harlem story "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push'by Sapphire," the Jewish domestic chronicle "A Serious Man," theanimated adventure "Up" and the recession-era yarn "Up in theAir." Along with "The Hurt Locker," which took in just $12.6 milliondomestically, competitors such as "An Education" and "A SeriousMan" have found relatively small audiences. The lineup is balanced with huge hits, led by "Avatar," thebiggest modern blockbuster with $700 million domestically and $2.6billion worldwide. "Up" and "The Blind Side" both topped $200million domestically, while "Inglourious Basterds" and "District9" were $100 million hits. Oscar TV ratings tend to rise in years when big hits are amongthe front-runners. The show had its biggest audience ever whenCameron's colossal hit "Titanic" won best-picture 12 years ago. Academy organizers also aim to liven up the show, continuing atrend they began last year by hiring song-and-dance man HughJackman as host, rather than a traditional comedian. Sunday's show features past host Steve Martin paired with AlecBaldwin, the first time since 1987 that the Oscars have had morethan one emcee. Lifetime-achievement Oscars have been moved to a separate eventto speed up the pace of the show. Oscar producers Adam Shankman and Bill Mechanic also are mixingup the cast of awards presenters with young talent such as MileyCyrus and "Twilight" co-stars Kristen Stewart and Taylor Lautnerand veterans such as Sean Penn, Barbra Streisand and Samuel L.Jackson. "New Hollywood and classic Hollywood. Love it," Shankman said. "You'll see that quite a bit," Mechanic said. "Not pairedtogether, but you'll see a respect for the traditions of Hollywoodand a welcoming of new Hollywood." And a scramble by Oscar bosses come Monday to see how theratings went. --- http://www.oscars.org

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