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VATICAN CITY — The election night introduction of Pope Francis to the world on March 13, 2013, took only 12 minutes. These minutes were some of the most important of my photographic career. For months I had obsessed about every detail of covering the election of the new pope.

Beginning in October of 2012 I began having a strong feeling that something big was going to happen to Pope Benedict XVI, although I never imagined he would resign. Throughout the fall and into early 2013 I began planning for what Vatican journalists politely call the “papal transition.”

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In planning how to shoot a new pope’s first appearance, my two major concerns were getting the photos out quickly and making sure they were in focus. I had already photographed seven “Urbi et Orbi” (to the city and the world) Christmas and Easter blessings from the same balcony where the pope would make his first appearance. I knew how difficult focus can be at a far distance when the subject is not very big in the viewfinder. I had always anticipated shooting the appearance of the new pope in daylight, not at night, which makes things even more difficult.

Thanks to God’s grace the election night photos went well. My new 600mm lens didn’t lock up, as it had the night before, and proved to be exceptionally sharp. In the end, despite all the technical problems and worries, this was a blessed moment and God was in control. The results are in the slideshow above.

Then I scribbled down some of the winning qualities that people were looking for and would be needed to face the challenges:

A spiritual leader (strong prayer life).

Energy, strength to travel; but how young/old is too young/old?

Can clean up Curia/problems that make church look bad.

Makes faith attractive.

Smart; simple, clear communication.

Honest, down-to-earth.

See young people as important.

Represents the message the church wants to send the world.

From Asia, Latin America, Africa.

Charismatic; humble; multilingual.

Cardinals entering the Sistine Chapel in prayer March 12, 2013, as they begin the conclave. (CNS photo/L’Osservatore Romano via Reuters)

Silver said also to list any biases that might affect the way the data is read. So I listed the common opinion that the pope “not be Italian” and the need for someone “young” or with “strength of mind and body,” as Pope Benedict himself had said.

Then I looked at several cardinals and their lives, and rated them according to how well each man possessed the needed/winning qualities to confront today’s challenges. I calculated what chances they had of winning, of losing, and of having won in the past.

I only had time to look at 14 cardinals out of the 117 electors. But one of those men was Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, whom I gave an 80% chance of winning and a 60% chance of losing (mostly because of his age — he was 76, and lack of languages).

A print-out of cardinal-electors, showing my Nate Silver-inspired stat results on March 12, 2013, for Cardinal Bergoglio’s chances of being elected pope.

But those pretty good percentages put him behind what I had calculated for Pope Francis’ close friend, 70-year-old Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras. I had given him a 90% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing, noting his focus on the poor, writings on globalization, his strong voice for Latin America, language abilities, courage to “put out into the deep,” his work on sanctity of life; and importance of evoking God in a secular world.

Cardinal Luis Tagle of Manila got the next highest marks with a 90% chance of winning, but a 20% chance of losing (too young) noting the following “winning” qualities: “Asian, rides the bus, humble, Vatican II scholar, has ‘star power,’ intellect,” communicates clearly, with focus on youth.

The good thing about Silver’s approach is you’re supposed to adjust the percentages as you collect more data and I didn’t have that much time to find out more about Cardinal Bergoglio. Had I known he was another friend of public transport, I would have boosted his Win score up to 85%!

But probably the best lesson Silver offers is to never forget the limitations posed by human nature, our biases and our limited access to all the information out there.

We want to try to predict the future and be sure about what’s going to happen. But, he said we should be more humble about our ability to perceive and predict the world. And then when you add the powerful presence of the Holy Spirit at work, well, then all bets are off!

The Italian-based website www.vaticanum.com has partnered with the Vatican for a while now, helping people around the world order and receive print, audio and visual media produced by Vatican outlets as well as some religious articles.

In fact, with the Christmas countdown now at “35 Days to Go,” it may not be too early to look for some special gifts from the Vatican.

Pope John Paul II greeting Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger at a Munich airport in November 1980 at the end of a papal visit to Germany. (CNS photo from KNA)

According to one agent, the cardinal prefect of the Vatican’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith “would have an influence on the growth of anti-communist attitudes in the Catholic Church, especially in Latin America.” Agents wrote that Pope John Paul asked Cardinal Ratzinger to organize help for “counterrevolutionary activities in Poland” after the rise of the Solidarity movement in 1980.

Details of the Stasi’s activities were published in 2005 by the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. The Stasi archives show there was one agent in the Vatican who provided “exact details” of the 1978 conclave that elected Pope John Paul II.

The newspaper noted that the secret police had kept an extensive card file on then-Cardinal Ratzinger and had described him as “the most decided opponent of communism in the Vatican.” Spies also described him as appearing “initially shy in conversation,” but that he also possessed “a winning charm.”

Soviet-bloc governments tried to get their Eastern European theology students to spy on the Vatican when they studied in Rome.

Jesuit Father Robert Graham pictured in Rome in 1992. Father Graham, who died in 1997, was considered an authority on the role of Pope Pius XII during World War II. (CNS photo/Agostino Bono)

“The poor Soviets believed secret sources more than public information, but that was an illusion,” the late-U.S. Jesuit Father Robert Graham, a historian and longtime Vatican observer, told CNS in 1993.

ROME — The cardinal electors who voted in the conclave were cut off from all forms of external communication for the duration of the two-day voting period. But once the conclave was over, they did not immediately fill up their Twitter account with reflections on their experiences or their wishes for the new pope.

Most likely the cardinals didn’t have too much time for that. Immediately after the Pope Francis was announced to the world in St. Peter’s Square, the cardinals joined one another for dinner, then many of them gave interviews or were part of press briefings.

Since then, they had Mass with the new pope and a meeting with him, so they have not had a lot of free time on their hands.

But some have found the chance to send a few messages to their Twitter followers after the few days of imposed silence.

South African Cardinal Wilfrid Napier sent several tweets after the election of Pope Francis beginning with the March 14 message about the pope’s choice of name, quoting him: “I shall be called Francis, in memory of St Francis of Assisi!”

The cardinal described the pope’s name choice as “words that made a grown man cry with joy and wonder! More was to follow.”

He also sent the following tweets:

Surely man for the moment Pope Francis insisted on standing to greet & be greeted by his brother Cardinals. So doing he asked: Pray for me!