Share this story

That is because global warming, driven in part by the colossal fossil fuel consumption of today’s massive global jetliner fleet, is expected to generate stronger wind shear within the stratospheric jetstreams.

Paul Williams, a meteorologist at the University of Reading in the UK, reports in the Advances in Atmospheric Sciences journal that he used supercomputer simulations to test the rise in rough rides and scary moments at altitudes of 9,000 metres across the Atlantic if carbon dioxide ratios in the atmosphere double − as they could this century, unless drastic action is taken to reduce emissions.

Light turbulence will increase by 59 per cent, light to moderate by 75 per cent, moderate to severe by 127 per cent, and the really bad jolts associated with severe turbulence go up by 149 per cent.

“

Even the most seasoned frequent fliers may be alarmed at the prospect of a 149 per cent increase in severe turbulence, which frequently hospitalises air travellers and flight attendants around the world.

Paul Williams, meteorologist, University of Reading in the UK

These predictions apply only as averages. Some flights will be no more uncomfortable than normal, but unbuckled passengers on other flights could find themselves being thrown out of their seats.

“For most passengers, light turbulence is nothing more than an annoying inconvenience that reduces their comfort levels, but for nervous fliers even light turbulence can be distressing,” Dr Williams says.

“However, even the most seasoned frequent fliers may be alarmed at the prospect of a 149 per cent increase in severe turbulence, which frequently hospitalises air travellers and flight attendants around the world.”

Climate change impact

This is not the first such warning, nor the first alarm at the potential impact of climate change on air traffic. In 2013, Dr Williams warned that flight paths were likely to become bumpier as carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion gathered in the atmosphere and raised global temperatures.

In 2015, another team of scientists started to calculate just what stronger headwinds could mean − in terms of fuel costs and journey times − for airlines working three specific routes across the Pacific from the west coast of the US to Hawaii.

“My top priority for the future is to investigate other flight routes around the world,” Dr Williams says. “We also need to investigate the altitude and seasonal dependence of the changes, and to analyse different climate models and warming scenarios to quantify the uncertainties.”

Thanks for reading to the end of this story!

We would be grateful if you would consider joining as a member of The EB Circle. This helps to keep our stories and resources free for all, and it also supports independent journalism dedicated to sustainable development. It only costs as little as S$5 a month, and you would be helping to make a big difference.