Okay, so at best we can tie the Saints and the Niners with 3 wins and 13 losses; at worst we end the season with the worst record in the league at 2-14. In a tie situation the team with the weakest strength of schedule gets first dibs. So my question is, is it already official that we have the number 1 pick in the next draft, or is it possible that we could wind up with as high as the third pick if we beat the Niners?

With all the hype on Reggie, I wonder what kind of trade offers other teams will be swinging for him. It'd be interesting to hold the #1 pick this year.

The 49ers, Jets, Packers, and Saints all have 3 wins right now, and the 49ers are the only one with a stronger strength of schedule, so if we beat the 49ers next week and all the other teams lose out then we could drop to the 4th pick.

I'm wondering what is the exact formula for determining strength of schedule?

Do you take all the teams they played and get an average win percentage or is it more complicated than that?

The official formula is to add together the opponents W-L percentage for each game and divide by 16. Note this means only 13 opponents, 3 of whom count twice.

Our week 17 schedule offers us a little boost towards the #1 pick, incidentally. The Saints are our biggest challengers, and are very slightly ahead of us (should we end up 3-13, of course) in the running for #1. The Jets are slightly behind us at the moment. The 49ers are slightly behind the Jets. The Packers have been mathematically eliminated from passing us up - there's not enough games left for them, they have a 5 game deficit and only 4 games left in the season that would hurt the Texans more than the Packers.

The Jets and Saints have a weaker strength of schedule than us. Their opponents win percent is 0.522, we are at 0.531, and the niners and pack are at 0.545. The way I see it we lose and have the first pick, we win we have the same record as the niners, but pick ahead of them because our schedule was easier ( based on opponent win % ). If Jets and Saints both lose and we win, we will pick third. So if your not confused enough, we will either pick first or third...I think.

"With week to play #1 pick still in play… Who ultimately ends up with the first overall pick at the 2006 draft, in fact, will go down to the final week of the schedule. The possibility that the #1 pick would be decided in a head-to-head game between Houston and San Francisco, though, was removed when the 49ers stunned the Rams in St. Louis to raise their record to 3-12. That left the Texans as the only remaining team with just two wins. As such, Houston would get the #1 pick this coming April, and the chance to select star Southern California junior RB Reggie Bush, if the Texans lose in San Francisco on New Year’s Day. A win by the Texans, though, would really muddle the race. The 49ers, for example, may have played themselves out of any chance at the #1 pick. While there are still three other teams with three wins – New Orleans, at 3-12, as well as Green Bay and the Jets, both of whom have to play later tonight and Monday respectively – the 49ers have played a somewhat stronger schedule than the Saints, Jets and Texans. Even if the 49ers lose to Houston, they likely will finish the year with a better combined opponents’ W-L record than the Texans. In fact, a win by Houston next Sunday and New Orleans could sneak into the #1 pick. The Saints have played the weakest schedule of any of the 2-3 win teams and have a tough one to finish up with a road date in Tampa Bay next Sunday. And that could be interesting because the Saints may be one team that will actually be more interested in Southern Cal QB Matt Leinart as opposed to his backfield mate Bush. As usual, we’ll have the full, updated “if the draft were held today selection order for the 2006 draft’ after Monday night’s game so stay tuned! "