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Democrats retake lead in generic ballot

1. A week removed from an internecine fight about whether or not control of the House is up for grabs this fall (it is), Democrats got some welcome news this morning as the party re-took the lead in Gallup's generic congressional ballot question.

Forty-nine percent of those tested said they preferred a generic Democratic candidate for Congress while 43 percent said they would opt for a generic Republican. Democrats' six point margin represents a bump from the Gallup data earlier this month -- Democrat 47 percent, Republican 46 percent -- and marks the first time that Democrats have had a statistically significant edge on the question so far this election cycle.

The reason for Democrats' upward movement in the poll appears to be independent voters where Republicans now hold a four point generic edge (43 percent to 39 percent), a major drop from Gallup polling earlier this month that showed the GOP with a 14-point margin.

A few caveats: 1) The generic ballot should not be taken as predictive of what is going to happen in any particular House race but rather as an broad -- though usually accurate -- indicator of which way the national wind is blowing. 2) This is one poll. Gallup has shown Republicans consistently tied or ahead in the generic ballot question and it's not clear whether these latest findings are an outlier or the start of a broader trend. 3) This is a poll of registered voters not likely voters, making it slightly less predictive about expected election outcomes.

Although the generic has clearly improved for Democrats, some of the other numbers in the poll should provide them pause about the election to come -- most notably a widening enthusiasm gap between the two parties' bases.

More than half (51 percent) of self-identifying Republicans describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about the coming election while roughly half that number (28 percent) of Democrats say the same.

If midterm elections are about base turnout and history suggests they are that sort of base energy disparity could signal major Democratic losses in the fall -- no matter what the generic ballot says.

2. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel enters today's GOP governor primary as the favorite to beat a field of male candidates although she is unlikely to win the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid an Aug. 10 runoff.

Handel began surging in the polls recently, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's (R) recent endorsement appears to have helped further that momentum. State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine led for much of the race, and former Rep. Nathan Deal and state Sen. Eric Johnson have also been in the mix.

Almost all of the (plentiful) recent public polling has shown Handel overtaking the field, though a lone SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago showed Oxendine holding on to a 32 percent to 23 percent lead. The real question today seems to be who Handel will face in the runoff not whether she will earn a spot there.

Most recent polling on the Democratic side shows former Gov. Roy Barnes well above 50 percent in his primary with state Attorney General Thurbert Baker. If Barnes emerges as the nominee today, expect Democrats nationally to make the case that the Peach State represents a genuine pickup opportunity for their side.

Republicans will also sort out the primaries to face potentially vulnerable Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall where state Rep. Austin Scott is the favorite, and Sanford Bishop where state Rep. Mike Keown has the edge. Both GOP primaries feature three-candidate fields, though, so runoffs are possibilities.

Other races on the ballot include a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), who faces off former DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jonesand DeKalb County Commissioner Connie Stokes as well as the GOP primary race to replace retiring Rep. John Linder (R-Ga.), where a runoff is likely with eight candidates on the ballot in this safe Republican district.

3. West Virginia will hold a special Senate election this fall to fill the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) after state legislators came to an agreement Monday night.

After a marathon legislative session Monday, a compromise was reached that will set the special election primary for Aug. 28, with the winners facing off Nov. 2 -- the same day as the regularly scheduled 2010 election.

Gov. Joe Manchin, who will announce his intentions about the race today at 10 a.m., signed the bill soon after it passed through the legislature.

"The 17th Amendment to the Constitution is alive and well," Manchin said at a press conference Monday night, referring to the peoples' right to directly elect their Senators.

Republicans won a key concession, however, as the legislation allows candidates seeking other office this year to also run for the Senate seat. That should allow Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, the preferred GOP candidate, a free run against Manchin without the worry of giving up the 2nd district seat she has held for the last decade.

Filing for the race will begin this morning. The other GOP candidate mentioned as a possibility if Capito passes is businessman John Raese, a self-funder who ran against Byrd in 2006 and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) in 1984(!).

The winner will serve until 2012, when a full six-year term will be up for election. Manchin on Friday appointed his former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, to fill the remaining four months remaining until the 2010 election.

4. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) endorsed former New Hampshire state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte on Monday, a move that may give Ayotte a boost in a crowded Senate primary field.

In an endorsement posted on Palin's Facebook page, the 2008 vice presidential nominee called Ayotte a "Granite State 'mama grizzly' who has broken barriers, fought off and locked up criminals, and battled all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court to protect the rights of New Hampshire parents -- and won!"

Ayotte faces self-funding businessmen Jim Bender and Bill Binnie as well as former state Board of Education Chairman Ovide Lamontagne in the Sept. 14 Republican primary.

Ayotte has received the lion's share of establishment backing, which, in the second quarter of the year she turned into cash. Ayotte raised $720,000 over the past three months, giving her a warchest on par with the largely self-funding Binnie and Bender. Lamontagne lagged well behind with $119,000 raised and has $197,000 on hand.

Binnie, Ayotte's primary rival in the primary (ahem), used the endorsement to tie her to Washington -- although Palin's profile isn't exactly that of a Washington insider. while Democratic frontrunner Paul Hodes said that Palin's backing shows that Ayotte "is just a mouthpiece for the radical right wing of the Republican Party who are out of touch with New Hampshire voters." (The prize for the most creative response goes to Bender's spokesperson, who reacted this way to the Palin endorsement: "I think I got an email about that, but I must have deleted it." So good!)

While Palin's endorsement certainly shook up the Senate race, it will also stoke speculation about her aspirations in 2012. New Hampshire will hold the first primary of the Republican presidential race and Ayotte, if she gets to the Senate, will be a highly sought after endorsement. Palin also has endorsed candidates for governor in Iowa (Terry Branstad) and South Carolina (Nikki Haley) -- two other states that will play a critical role in deciding the identity of the party's nominee.

The Glengariff Group poll has Cox at 26.4 percent and Hoekstra at 25.6 percent in the primary, which is just two weeks away. Businessman Rick Snyder, who is self funding his effort, isn't far behind at 20 percent while Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard takes 12 percent.

Polling has been all over the place in this race, which Republicans consider one of their top pickup opportunities in November due to the dismal state of the Michigan economy and the less than top-tier Democratic field.

Cox is the best known candidate in the Republican field, according to the Detroit News poll, but he also has the highest unfavorable rating at 43 percent positive and 26 percent negative. Hoekstra is strong at 49 percent favorable and just 11 percent unfavorable, while Snyder is less well-known at 36 and eight, respectively.

The Democratic race is between Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and state Rep. Andy Dillon. Dillon is the favorite although Democrats are decidedly pessimistic about holding this seat after eight years of term limited Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D).

Understandable. Lets see the GOP gives us the Tea Party, Palin, Discrimination, Pay cuts to the Rich, Opposition to Banking Reform, Opposition to Health Care and promises to overturn the legislation , Social Security privatization,Limbroken, Opposition to Unemployment insurance for 3million people, Opposition to Education spending,Opposition to anything to do with the environment except support for BP (see apologies) and Opposition to small business incentives and a lingering Recession they claim they didn't cause...right.... Yeah.. why are people going to vote for the GOP???????

Good Morning Sir, As an African American,
Let me say this , You spoke to soon, Have you seen the new Quinnipiac Poll out today ? Please see this statement-But voters say 43 - 38 percent they would vote for a Republican in a generic Congressional race, Sorry Washingtonpost

"More than half (51 percent) of self-identifying Republicans describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about the coming election while roughly half that number (28 percent) of Democrats say the same. If midterm elections are about base turnout and history suggests they are that sort of base energy disparity could signal major Democratic losses in the fall -- no matter what the generic ballot says."

There's enthusiastic and then there's mad as hell. Today we got yet another reason for some five million voters to be mad as hell.

As the Democrats finally got the vote they needed to cut off this latest filibuster, The Same Republican Conservatives ranted about borrowing money to pay 3.5 billion a year in unemployment compensation, 30 billion over 10 years because such costs have to be projected out that far, While in the very same breath saying that it will be absolutely essential that America borrow a hundred times that much so the nation can pass it on to the very wealthy as tax cuts.

If the Republicans think the T-Crazies are mad, and not just totally insane, they are about to see what MAD really means.

It is time for Congress to take responsibility for their actions. I submit that until the national deficit is eliminated, the debt is retired, and an actual surplus is "IN THE BANK", the COngress, the President and all their staffs should be limited to being paid minimum wage, and all persk should be withheld until then as well. Anything less, is nothing more than fraud on the part of the government perpetrated on the people.

Posted by: jonweiss1 | July 20, 2010 6:32 PM
---

I haven't followed all the chatter about Social Security reform, but if the retirement age is raised, it will probably apply only to people born after a certain date. I doubt that people now in their 50s would be effected. But you're right about the longevity issue; some families are going to get shafted one way or another. It's the nature of the beast.

I have been sitting around the house studying the background of Social Security and Medicare. I gave a good deal of thought to this subject because I was disturbed by the recent agreement between Reps Hoyer and Boehner that the Social Seucrity Retirement age should be raised to a potentially point of 70 years of age.

I read some of the commentaries of both men and others who commented on the issue. Then I began to count the cost.

I have to wonder... why should I support or oppose such an idea.

I have come to the conclusion that I should not, nor should any sane person, support such a proposal.

The politicians have tipped their hands on this issue. The Social Security and Medicare programs are little more than a fraud perpetrated on the American people, by the elected officials.

I am 53 years old, based on my family history, there is a high liklihood that I will NEVER live to see 70 years old.
My father died when he was 35 years old. My mother died at 50, my older borther at 55, my grandparents all died prior to age 67.

Now I have politicians telling me that after they have collected FICA on the lifetimes of work from these seven family members with no payouts, that if we only move my retirement age out five additional years, that you will have the money to pay my retirement. I know that some people live well beyond the 65 year age point. I also know from personal experience that some do not, so tell me why should I beleive a Congress that has a long track record of not making good financial decisions, is going to act responsibly now?

I have no faith in your (the Congress's) ability to manage my money, because so far you (the Congress's) have shown no such ability to do so responsibly.

It is time for Congress to take responsibility for their actions. I submit that until the national deficit is eliminated, the debt is retired, and an actual surplus is "IN THE BANK", the COngress, the President and all their staffs should be limited to being paid minimum wage, and all persk should be withheld until then as well. Anything less, is nothing more than fraud on the part of the government perpetrated on the people.

Cillizza writes: "The reason for Democrats' upward movement in the poll appears to be independent voters where Republicans now hold a four point generic edge (43 percent to 39 percent), a major drop from Gallup polling earlier this month that showed the GOP with a 14-point margin."

I can't argue, but the real question is not the numbers themselves, but the precise reasons they occurred. I see at least four:

1. Joe Barton's pathetic apology to BP.

2. The GOP's pathetic groveling to their paymasters on Wall Street, culminating in their desperate ans shameful fight against the reform bill.

3. Their fight to prevent an entension of unemployment insurance, while simultaneously defending tax breaks for millionaires.

4. Sharron Angle and Rand Paul...voters are running for the hills the more they learn about these bizarre people.

It turns out that most people don't want another Prohibition, don't want Social Security to end up in the hands of the Wall Street sharpies, and don't question the Civil Rights Act.

It was the moment of greatest peril for then-Sen. Barack Obama’s political career. In the heat of the presidential campaign, videos surfaced of Obama’s pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, angrily denouncing whites, the U.S. government and America itself. Obama had once bragged of his closeness to Wright. Now the black nationalist preacher’s rhetoric was threatening to torpedo Obama’s campaign.

The crisis reached a howling pitch in mid-April, 2008, at an ABC News debate moderated by Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos. Gibson asked Obama why it had taken him so long – nearly a year since Wright’s remarks became public – to dissociate himself from them. Stephanopoulos asked, “Do you think Reverend Wright loves America as much as you do?”

Watching this all at home were members of Journolist, a listserv comprised of several hundred liberal journalists, as well as like-minded professors and activists. The tough questioning from the ABC anchors left many of them outraged. “George [Stephanopoulos],” fumed Richard Kim of the Nation, is “being a disgusting little rat snake.”

Others went further. According to records obtained by The Daily Caller, at several points during the 2008 presidential campaign a group of liberal journalists took radical steps to protect their favored candidate. Employees of news organizations including Time, Politico, the Huffington Post, the Baltimore Sun, the Guardian, Salon and the New Republic participated in outpourings of anger over how Obama had been treated in the media, and in some cases plotted to fix the damage.

In one instance, Spencer Ackerman of the Washington Independent urged his colleagues to deflect attention from Obama’s relationship with Wright by changing the subject. Pick one of Obama’s conservative critics, Ackerman wrote, “Fred Barnes, Karl Rove, who cares — and call them racists.”

"Last week, the NAACP passed a resolution asking the tea party movement to repudiate any racism within its ranks. Since then, right-wing pundits and politicians have pounced on the civil rights organization, attacking it for pointing out that there is some racism present in the tea party movement. The NAACP has received a number of death threats at local units and chapters around the country following the passage of its tea party resolution. In one particularly explicit and offensive death threat a caller asks, “You want a race war? You got one!”

He repeatedly uses the N-word to refer to African Americans, and says that they are a “have-not bunch of bums.” Towards the end of the call, the man warns, “The streets will run red with your blood.”

RE: A few caveats: 1) The generic ballot should not be taken as predictive of what is going to happen in any particular House race but rather as an broad -- though usually accurate -- indicator of which way the national wind is blowing. 2) This is one poll. Gallup has shown Republicans consistently tied or ahead in the generic ballot question and it's not clear whether these latest findings are an outlier or the start of a broader trend. 3) This is a poll of registered voters not likely voters, making it slightly less predictive about expected election outcomes.:

Are there any other caveats needed to make sure the "Dems are going down meme" is still alive.

teabaggers are just willing, unwitting tools of global corporations, the same ones that bankrupted the country, outsource jobs, and cheat on taxes. not too bright.

Posted by: drindl
----------------------------------------
Yes- BHO, receipient of the largest BP contributions, and tax cheat Tim Geithner. Speaking of jobs leaving the country, do you remember (lol) the promise that Barry made that he was going to punish companies that export jobs? But you made a misstatement, it not Tbaggers, it’s Dbaggers (free lunch partiers of the left).

teabaggers are just willing, unwitting tools of global corporations, the same ones that bankrupted the country, outsource jobs, and cheat on taxes. not too bright.

"As ThinkProgress has documented, the lobbyist-run Americans for Prosperity (AFP) has been instrumental in orchestrating the Tea Party movement. The group coordinated “grassroots” protests around the country and provided organizations and communications support to the Tea Parties.

AFP staffers are also regular presence at Tea Party rallies. The man behind AFP is David Koch, who is one of the richest men in the world thanks to his oil, chemicals, and manufacturing conglomerate Koch Industries. In 2009, AFP President Tim Phillips said he “launched our organization.”

How is it racist to talk about the statements of the Black Panthers ?
Posted by: YouCanPostThis |
-----------------------------------------
It’s not. But to be a little more pc it’s now the Post-Racial Panthers.

NONE of any of this is racist - the problem here is clear - the democrats want to be able to throw out false charges of racism and make all sorts of baseless charges - WITHOUT EXAMINATION OR DISCUSSION.

The democrats just want to attack - and they don't want to be called out for it.

Today - those comments referred to the video of Shirley Sherrod - an Obama appointee

These issues should be discussed.

Sorry - IT IS ALL TRUE.

____________________________

Sure, no problem, in fact no need for time stamps, it is far more effective when you actually see and read them together...

"HOW MUCH MORE EVIDENCE DO WE NEED THAT OBAMA ASSOCIATES WITH PEOPLE WHO ARE RACIST AGAINST WHITES ???"

"...Then we have the media completely ignoring Black Liberation Theology - and everything it means."

"...Then we have the Black Panther case - in which the Justice Department - OBAMA APPOINTEES - dropping a case in which clealy if the persons had been white, the case would never have been dropped that way."

"Then we have the BLACK PANTHERS making racial slurs into a microphone - stating a desire to see violence against white children."

"THEN WE HAVE AN OBAMA APPOINTEE ON TAPE ADMITTING CIVIL RIGHTS VIOLATIONS AGAINST WHITES."

"Is it too much to ask to see Obama acting and speaking to make POST-RACIAL THE STANDARD - AND TELLING THE NAACP THAT ITS RESOLUTION WAS OUT OF BOUNDS."

"Combined with the Black Panthers - and the ridiculous resolution by the NAACP - we have a HYPER-RACIAL atmosphere - completely the opposite of what Obama promised."

"many times those pushing multi-cultural and multi-ethnic WANT TO MARGINALIZE Christians, and Whites - they do not want to recognize their majority status - to the point of saying that Christian symbols are not allowed - while other symbols of minorities are pushed."

"American is white majority - Christian majority."

You are a racist, and it is clear. You have a preoccupation of how you feel that you have been racially wronged. You try and justify your racist and hateful feeling by pointing other racists like the Black Panthers or Rev Wright.

Again, it is clear by your passion on the plight of the white Christian American at the hands of the commie, minority loving, liberals who and what you are. The evidence speaks for itself. And I again reassert that making analogies of the Tea Party to Nazi and Klan methods is dead on.

....."If midterm elections are about base turnout and history suggests they are that sort of base energy disparity could signal major Democratic losses in the fall..."

---And Saviour Saint Sarah is stirring up that base. That's why repulsives can't wait till the mid terms. Myself, it doesn't make any difference. Same old song and dance of arguing will happen. And President can veto.
//////
It was Goodwin you got sworn in for Byrd's vacany.

The vote for unemployment benefits is happening now. 2:30 ET.
Or it's supposed to.
////////
12Bar - you noticed it too.
Is YouCanPostThis this actually 37 ????
Posting times within the entries gives him away.

the expense- 190 million lost in conventions, hospitality business, tourism

ramifications:
the boycott,
sealing of the border instead of securing the border...
-law enforcement feels they can't do their job correctly if forced to examine all resonably suspicious people (everyone is down here). There are now 5 lawsuits pending by police officers on this note.
--no jobs
--higher taxes
--property value going down more than it went down in this economic crisis of the past two years.
///
Now I know other states have followed suit with some kind of similar laws or back az's law, but most of them are not border states.

It is becoming clear that racial profiling will be done because of reasonable suspicion. But thing is, they must then check Asian Americans, Russians, Bosnians as well as Hispanics. Native Americans will feel this too. Why? Because law enforcement must enforce the law and get Native Americans mixed up with Hispanics. We have large populations of different cultures and the law must apply to all. But SB1070 seems to focus on Hispanics because the border is with our state.

Jerzy, I love how you say Democrats are spending too much money. I guess since GWB was a Republican you give him a pass on coming in with a surplus of 500 million and leaving with a deficit of 9 trillion. Ahhhh, what the hay, he's Republican. What's 9 trillion between friends.

I agree with most of what you say there rcc_2000, but isn't there someone besides the democrats to protect us from the republicans?

Each of these two parties has never been more incompetent to govern than they are now. The only difference between the two is that the republicans are dangerous. The vile hatred permeating everything they say and do is not conducive to a well handled government.

I don't believe the democrats are capable of doing what they say they want to do. I do believe the republicans are - none of that fiscal responsibility noises they make, I mean the reaming out of anybody who isn't white and christian. The *real* things they say and do.

Posted by: jontomus

----

The only solution is for the country to get back to reason. There are many Republicans and many Democrats in Office that are capable. The leadership in both parties could go. Obama did not fulfill his promise of bipartisanship and the GOP made it impossible for him to do so.

There are many issues that we can agree on and that can be approached in a reasonable manner, from immigration to tax reform and health care. The more intelligent minds on both sides should be able to compromise.

I admit my left leaning posts are partially in response to where I see the GOP going. I was, for many years, a registered Republican. I voted for candidates of both parties and will probably do so this year (as a Democrat).

I admire George Will conservatism and pragmatism especially when it comes to fiscal matters. I admire Lindsey Graham for his ability to seek compromise.

So, as a former Republican, who switched in 2000 when GW was nominated (I did vote for Daddy Bush but also voted for Clinton his 2nd term) I have to say I am disappointed in where the GOP has decided to go. In health Care Reform I was for compromise until the Senators and Representatives of the GOP started sounding like Tea Klanners chanting communist this and socialist that instead of sticking to the economics. That was when the GOP jumped the shark. That was when they threw reason out the door and placed their November bets on the Tea Party, a group of people they cannot control, are emotional, irrational and subject to racist or idiotic rants and claims. As the fervor of Nov. comes to a boil, they will be the undoing of the GOP.

The thing that YouCanPostThis does not realize is that his thinking alienates not only Democrats but Independents and moderate/thinking Republicans as well. It is also why the public perception of the Tea Party and GOP has started to change.

In the end it will be the YouCanPostThis of the right that will sabotage the GOP in November. The GOP gave them a voice and they are using it with a bullhorn.

Again, in many ways we have YouCanPostThis to thank for the shift in numbers the poll is referring to.

I agree with most of what you say there rcc_2000, but isn't there someone besides the democrats to protect us from the republicans?

Each of these two parties has never been more incompetent to govern than they are now. The only difference between the two is that the republicans are dangerous. The vile hatred permeating everything they say and do is not conducive to a well handled government.

I don't believe the democrats are capable of doing what they say they want to do. I do believe the republicans are - none of that fiscal responsibility noises they make, I mean the reaming out of anybody who isn't white and christian. The *real* things they say and do.

in the end the GOP and Tea Party will die out in its present form. The reality is that 89% of its base are white non hispanics which is one of the fastest shrinking groups. In the mean time the Dems are 63% white non hispanics with an ever growing minority base. Hispanics already represent 15.4% of the population and growing and the GOP has targeted them as enemies. African Americans represent 12.4% (who left the GOP in the '60's never to return) and one of the largest groups are citizens of multiple backgrounds. Then there are gays, who cross the whole spectrum, they are no friends of the GOP and they represent over 10% of America.

24% of Americans are non-Christians (and growing) who the GOP goes from toleration (cuz they fit into the apocalypse) to outright hatred. And if you take out the Catholics who the Tea Party probably consider "not real" Christians that would be 24% off the total of 75% of all Christian Americans. And of course 60% of Catholics tend to vote Democrat. So basically, unless you are a white, protestant, homophobic, xenophobic American, you would have little reason to be a Republican since chances are they don't want you at their diner anyway.

Someone needs to tell you that you are interacting with a person who has been posting MILES of racist screed for years on this blog. Our host, Chris C., promises us that You Can Post It (who was previously known by many names, including 37th) will be blocked under a new Comment system.

I don't disagree with anything you say, but just thought you should know you are interacting with a guy who is finally going to be shown the door. And soon.

Chris, are you crazy? The federal and state government dump millions of people from the unemployment rolls. Simply cut off their benefits and leave the families to starve and, then, turn around and claim that unemployment number fell? Report this is economic improvement and sway the voters into thinking they are doing something correct?

Give me a break! No one believes this rubbish, the great unwashed public is merely hopeful and trusting that the government is telling them the truth. I cannot fathom how the press can print it with a straight face. THE ACTUAL unemployment rate right now is 22%. That is the unaltered, non-adjusted number of actual unemployed people in the US. It has remained fairly constant for the past several months. The U6 number, the one the rest of the world uses when reporting unemployment rates, is 16.3%.

AND, unemployment projections are supposed to get a lot worse, jumping by 1% for July according to trending analysis couple with REAL inflation, now, of 6% and the money supply is lower than at any time since 1963. We are entering a very real and truly awful DEPRESSION and the federal governments "happy news", being blindly reported by the MSM, is going to spark civil unrest when people discover that everything the government and media reports is a bald faced lie.

The economic models show this whole mess becoming so bad that it cannot be covered up any longer by October, at the very latest. No one has the foggiest idea of where Obama and the Democratic leadership are getting their rosy projections from, but they are based on thin air. The voters are going to place the blame with the Democrat's and they are going to suffer historic massive loses. No one seriously studying economic policy and it's effects would expect the Republican's to do any better. The policy of both major parties is, after all, the same, but the voters don't understand that and the results are entirely too predictable.

In the end, it's still "the economy, stupid". The Dem's lose control of the House and retain a bare , one vote, majority of the Senate.

get ready for another unemployment extension vote around Nov. 30th. Because all the people affected by the oil spill will start to file, if they haven't already. The gulf coast affected by the Deepwater Horizon disaster will be poor for years to come.

Well, you apparently, feel you represent the GOP so first off I would ask people just to read what YouCanPostThis has written today. The
fact is that you show every character trait of a bigot. You seem to justify your bigotry invoking an opposing bigot, Rev. Wright. Do two wrongs make a right?

_______________________

Show your quote - quote the comment and give the time

After what you have written, you have some nerve hurling names at other people.

Show the quote which supports your statement, and give the time.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis

-----------

Sure, no problem, in fact no need for time stamps, it is far more effective when you actually see and read them together...

"HOW MUCH MORE EVIDENCE DO WE NEED THAT OBAMA ASSOCIATES WITH PEOPLE WHO ARE RACIST AGAINST WHITES ???"

"...Then we have the media completely ignoring Black Liberation Theology - and everything it means."

"...Then we have the Black Panther case - in which the Justice Department - OBAMA APPOINTEES - dropping a case in which clealy if the persons had been white, the case would never have been dropped that way."

"Then we have the BLACK PANTHERS making racial slurs into a microphone - stating a desire to see violence against white children."

"THEN WE HAVE AN OBAMA APPOINTEE ON TAPE ADMITTING CIVIL RIGHTS VIOLATIONS AGAINST WHITES."

"Is it too much to ask to see Obama acting and speaking to make POST-RACIAL THE STANDARD - AND TELLING THE NAACP THAT ITS RESOLUTION WAS OUT OF BOUNDS."

"Combined with the Black Panthers - and the ridiculous resolution by the NAACP - we have a HYPER-RACIAL atmosphere - completely the opposite of what Obama promised."

"many times those pushing multi-cultural and multi-ethnic WANT TO MARGINALIZE Christians, and Whites - they do not want to recognize their majority status - to the point of saying that Christian symbols are not allowed - while other symbols of minorities are pushed."

"American is white majority - Christian majority."

You are a racist, and it is clear. You have a preoccupation of how you feel that you have been racially wronged. You try and justify your racist and hateful feeling by pointing other racists like the Black Panthers or Rev Wright.

Again, it is clear by your passion on the plight of the white Christian American at the hands of the commie, minority loving, liberals who and what you are. The evidence speaks for itself. And I again reassert that making analogies of the Tea Party to Nazi and Klan methods is dead on.

Palin's endorsement......Republicans are foaming at the mouth to get her endorsements. Geez louise.

This country has to be bipartisan. Every repubilican I've met wants to go back to Reaganomics. My gosh, that was 20 to 25 years ago. Times have changed. Why go backwards. He wasn't so great anyway.

What we need are republicans with democrat leanings where necessary and democrats with republican leanings where necessary. Or we will never cross the aisle and Congress will be sorely divided and fighting over everything.

Kinda like the Congress and the Senate Part of NO is doing now. It's hard and takes a year of fighting for anything to get done.

Today is the vote on unemployment benefits and they are only going until Nov. 30. So the Dec.31st date is out.

how about cutting off Unemployment benefits and sending millions onto the street?
what d'ya think; is that the kind of Ds you are hoping for. No thanks we don't need those kinds of idiotic ideas, Rs have that covered 4Ya just fine.

YouCanPostThis shows us exactly what so many people dislike about the republicans ... people who are NOT liberal, are NOT democrats, and who ARE WHITE.

YouCanPostThis, this is not your country, you can't take America back from Americans.

Having you and your kind run this country ... yeah, right, like the independents, especially the independent White voters like me, are going to want to put people like in charge of the country.

You have two chances of that: fat, and slim.

You are disgusting, I realize our country has people like you living in it, I realize you have a fair share of what it means to be an American, but I'll do anything I can to stop you from taking that away from anyone else. I'd even vote for a (holding back the bile) Democrat!

So Dems: show some spine and repeal the
14th Amendment, and close the doors until
you put a plan in place that will protest
US taxpayers from foreign low-lifes.

Posted by: Sirius2

-----

Typical Tea Klanner, wants to do away with the 14th Amendment which guarantees,

"(prevents)any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws " and defines "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." Sec 1

Tells us how our Representatives will be selected in Sec II

Says and elected official cannot have conspired against the Government in Sec III

"United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void." Sev IV

and in Sec V says that Congress can write laws to enforce this.

So, what is it that you, the GOP and the Tea Klan have against this?

I do not argue that immigration laws need to be enforced. They have not been by any administration Republican or Democrat. Also, employers need to go to jail, that will stop illegals fast (but of course the business owners in Texas & Arizona are Republicans.

We have these statements out there about being multi-cultural, multi-ethnic.

Fine.

However, many times those pushing multi-cultural and multi-ethnic WANT TO MARGINALIZE Christians, and Whites - they do not want to recognize their majority status - to the point of saying that Christian symbols are not allowed - while other symbols of minorities are pushed.

And they want to teach gay sex to children of younger and younger and younger ages.

Sorry - but all of that is a DISTORTION OF WHAT AMERICA IS.

American is white majority - Christian majority.

I realize that a great deal of leftists do NOT like that - and they are pushing images which perhaps, maybe shows whites and Christians to be 20% or 25% of America.

That is is deception and a distortion.

And then people like rc_2000 start calling people Nazis - Klansmen - and all sorts of other names - because they want to push an image of minorities.

There is a question of going too far.

WE ARE GOING TO TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK - WE REALIZE YOU ARE NOT GOING TO LIKE IT

They can begin by closing the doors to
foreign immigrants who come to the US and
receive free housing, food, education, health care, free transportation and every
thing they can find thanks to the various
support groups that direct them to taxpayer
hand-outs.

We are bankrupt as a nation and cannot
continue to pay the way for those without
skills or jobs who want to live in America!

It is time for the US to take care of its own citizens - we are not the caretakers
of the world.

So Dems: show some spine and repeal the
14th Amendment, and close the doors until
you put a plan in place that will protest
US taxpayers from foreign low-lifes.

You can also investigate welfare and
Section 8 fraud taking place in the US
and put a stop to this as well.

Well, you apparently, feel you represent the GOP so first off I would ask people just to read what YouCanPostThis has written today. The
fact is that you show every character trait of a bigot. You seem to justify your bigotry invoking an opposing bigot, Rev. Wright. Do two wrongs make a right?

_______________________

Show your quote - quote the comment and give the time

After what you have written, you have some nerve hurling names at other people.

In some cases it is better to go with the devil you know and with the GOP embracing the Tea Klan the fear of a, nationalistic/race, Nazi like, hate based takeover of America has suddenly become real. And it is starting to scare them... And with justifiable reason.

___________________________________

Would you please explain that ??

AND what exactly is the "justifiable reason???

And by any chance are you friends with Shirley Sherrod, or have you been to Rev. Wright's church?
Posted by: YouCanPostThis
------

Well, you apparently, feel you represent the GOP so first off I would ask people just to read what YouCanPostThis has written today. The
fact is that you show every character trait of a bigot. You seem to justify your bigotry invoking an opposing bigot, Rev. Wright. Do two wrongs make a right?

This is a typical bigot position, to give credence in their mind that bigotry is ok because someone else is acting like one.

Again, this is where some of the Nazi analogies come into play. The argumentative style and tactics are the same used by the Nazi party. The targeting of minorities and portrayal that what was happening to them was their fault. The use of racial hatred as a tool to unify its ranks is very similar. the labeling of people as "communist" is very Nazi like. The hatred of intellectuals, hispanics, blacks, muslims, jews, gays, etc., are all right out of Nazi history.

So I will state clearly racism by anyone towards anyone is wrong. Because there are white racists that does not justify black racists and vica versa.

So, Please continue to defend your bigotry, that is exactly the point of this story, it is the Tea Klan bigots that are going to kill the GOP chances.

1. This is a two part question. General views and the base. Sure, the Republican base was ginned up while the Democrats slept. That's the entire point of Obama going out hard against the Republicans. You can't be post-partisan in office. End of story.

Parenthetical note. Screwjob has a screw loose. From the first paragraph of the Gallup poll. This is the early July poll that gave Republicans a two point edge. "Republicans maintain their competitive position on the generic congressional ballot, with 46% of U.S. ***registered*** voters preferring the Republican candidate in their district and 44% the Democratic candidate." Emphasis mine. CC is waiting for your apology. I suspect it will be a looong wait.

3. As noted in the other thread, Capito can run for re-election and in the special election. Of course, that lets the governor run against her as just another pol.

4. Is there anything more cloying out there than mama grizzlies? Sounds like care bears with guns.

Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 18, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans inched up a point from last week, while support for the Democrat fell two points.

1. House Democrats are in trouble, regardless of 1 poll. Gallup's generic vs. all of the other specific polls in actual races seems to be different, as Republicans seem well ahead in alot of competitive polls this year. I think Republicans will pick up just over 40 seats and will take back the majority. Republicans are in great shape right now.

2. I predicted long ago that the Georgia Republican governor's nomination will go to Handel. Why? Because a long while ago before the race got under way, Gov. Perdue made clear that Handel is his favorite to succeed him. Sitting popular governor's have a way of helping the nominee of their choosing in their state. Even the embattled Gov. Sanford had his own way in SC, as his choosen candidate Nikki Haley cruised to the GOP nomination. Palin gets alot of credit for endorsing these candidates, but I think more credit should go to the sitting governor's who endorsed them as well. Word is, Sanford spent a little over $200,000 of his campaign warchest to help Haley win. I would guess that Gov. Perdue has also helped Karen Handel a great deal.

3. Wow, they allow a candidate to run for 2 consecutive seats in WV? I never thought that would be in this bill, but that gives Republicans a real shot to get Rep. Capito into this race. If Capito runs, WV is in play even if it's Manchin vs. Capito. In a recent interview, NRSC chairman John Cornyn stated Republicans will spend on WV, as it's a cheap media state, to tie Manchin to the Pelosi/Reid/Obama agenda and bring him down into their negatives. If they can do that and make Capito a fighter for the people and of the people, they have a shot to win WV. This race will now be competitive due to that multi-race provision. West Virginia is in play!

4. Ayotte is a real favorite, despite Binnie's spending. Ayotte has the endorsements now of Palin & Sen. Gregg, the popular incumbent. I think Ayotte will win the primary & the GE, becoming the next US Senator of NH.

5. I have long predicted that Rick Snyder will win this R primary, and it has tightened closely. Attorney General Cox & US Rep. Snyder will be in it til the end, although Bouchard is fading. It's a 3 way primary until the end and it's going to be one of the closest in the nation.

'The US Senate, full of founding fathers, and the Adams government, approved the Treaty with Tripoli (now Libya) of 1797, which included this language:

"As the Government of the United States of America is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion, or tranquillity, of Musselmen; and as the said States never have entered into any war or act of hostility against any Mehomitan nation, it is declared by the parties that no pretext arising from religious opinions shall ever produce an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries."

The treaty is important for showing the mindset of the fashioners of the American system."

R filibustering unemployment benefits
certainly is not popular with independent voters. Rs are hoping that the millions of unemployed will not find their way to their polling place this Nov. I am doing everything possible to register these folks and remind them that the GOP doesn't give a daman about them and hopes that they simply go away. What a great message they are delivering. Billions in upper income tax cuts they insist must be extended and not one cent for the unemployed. Let them eat cake might be a more appropriate GOP message.

"While the tea party movement is desperately trying to fight off charges of “racist elements” from the NAACP, Ryan J. Murdough, a Republican candidate for New Hampshire State House, has no qualms about expressing his views on race. “It is time for white people in New Hampshire and across the country to take a stand,” Murdough wrote in a letter to the Concord Monitor titled “We must preserve our racial identity”:

In some cases it is better to go with the devil you know and with the GOP embracing the Tea Klan the fear of a, nationalistic/race, Nazi like, hate based takeover of America has suddenly become real. And it is starting to scare them... And with justifiable reason.

___________________________________

Would you please explain that ??

AND what exactly is the "justifiable reason???

And by any chance are you friends with Shirley Sherrod, or have you been to Rev. Wright's church?

Forget about jobs, forget about the safety of the country and everything else.

We all know that if Repubicans were to take the House, the only thing they would be interested in is impeaching Obama, to pretend that a black man was never legitimately elected to be president of this country.

And Congress would just put aside all business and spend years and millions of taxpayer dollars pursuing dead ends, trying to come up with something, anythng on the president, just like they did with Clinton -- $80 million dollars, flushed down the toilet.

Overnight - Monday night - not over the weekend - the violence toll in Chicago - 8 shot, with one dead.

What is Obama doing about the violence in Chicago ???

Instead of making partisan speeches - in which he accuses of the other side of not putting politics aside - why doesn't Obama do something about the violence in Chicago and other inner cities ????

Instead of the liberals complaining about the Tea Party, and the potential violence there (there has been none up to now) - how about the liberals start talking about what to do about the violence in Chicago ???

The liberals have all their priorities wrong - that is why they must be voted out of office as soon as possible.

With regard to your comment at 11:10, the problem is that too many times the definition of multi-cultural and mulit-ethnic does NOT include whites and Christians. Posted by: YouCanPostThis

------
I did reread it and once again stand by every word. Being white and multi-cultural and mulit-ethnic I realize what you are saying, however you strengthen my point. The GOP is becoming the Aryan Nation wishing to exclude, with the exception of a few minorities that would be less than the margin of error in most polls.

Once again here is the original post that I stand by 100%...

I think that slowly America is coming to realize that the GOP of Ronald Reagan and GHW Bush are gone. The GOP now has become a party of No, idiots shouting about Communist and socialist and bigots who somehow wrap their bigotry in racist logic. In some races I do not see them voting for any candidate instead of voting for a tea klanner.

In some cases it is better to go with the devil you know and with the GOP embracing the Tea Klan the fear of a, nationalistic/race, Nazi like, hate based takeover of America has suddenly become real. And it is starting to scare them... And with justifiable reason.

YouCanPostThis, your desire to white wash what the GOP has become is understandable.

1] The economy still sucks and small biz and real estate lending are still mere shadows.
True the economy does suck, BUT it sucks a lot less than it did a year ago or even six months ago, and I think that since the banks now know what the Finreg bill has in it they will start to move forward with lending. I expect this to unfreeze slowly, but it will unfreeze.

2] There is no real prospect that the jobs picture will brighten soon.
Again, the job picture is getting better (albeit slowly), and just last week people applying for new unemployment dropped down to 420,000 or so. Most people say we have to have the new unemployment down in the low 400s or high 300s for a few months to get a serious drop in long-term unemployment. Lastly, as people reach the end of their benefits (the 99ers, and the folks that were cut off with this recent GOP block, etc) may opt to take a lower paying job, which will help the overall unemployment numbers. I personally expect us to gain over 100,000+ new private sector jobs by the end of June.

3] There is no prospect that we can leave Afg soon.
But we have a deadline, and with Petraeus there now, I think we have a much better chance of that turning around. I know he isn't a miracle worker, but he does seem to be an exceptional commander which is sometimes all you need.

And yet another wingnut attacks the cops. This is what all this anti-government rhethoric gets you --- our police force the victims of radical rightwingers:

'Yesterday, 45-year-old parolee Byron Williams opened fire on Highway Patrol officers in Oakland, California. After a brief shootout, Williams, who was wearing body armor, was shot and is currently in an emergency room in stable condition at a local hospital.

In an interview with the local news, Williams explained that her son was unemployed, angry at "left-wing politicians," and upset about Congress "railroading through all these left-wing agenda items." Williams went on to say that she kept guns in her house which her son stole. She also warned of a coming "revolution":

She said her son, who had been a carpenter and a cabinetmaker before his imprisonment, was angry about his unemployment and about "what's happening to our country." Williams watched the news on television and was upset by "the way Congress was railroading through all these left-wing agenda items," his mother said. [...]

Janice Williams said she kept the guns because "eventually, I think we're going to be caught up in a revolution."

Having said that - yes, the Republicans of the 1980s are not the Repulicans of today.

And yet - would you say that the democrats of the 1980s are the same as the democrats of today ?

All the democratic issues are different now too.

The party of Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale and Tip O'Neil is gone, isn't it ?

What remains of the democratic party? I would venture to say a bunch of crazy people who make insanely inaccurate comments like the one you did at 10:00 am.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis

------

Hardly inaccurate from my point of view. Also, I am happy that the party of Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale and Tip O'Neil are gone at that time I was a Republican. When I speak of the old GOP is gone I am also talking about the George Will type of conservative. The Dems are hardly perfect, far from it, but the GOP is only offering apologies to BP, protection for Wall Street and bigotry for the masses. The Dems are the only reasonable alternative to what the GOP is offering which is a Christian, whites only, serfs of Wall Street and big oil companies America that GW Bush started and the Tea Klan and GOP are crusading.

The bottom line is that eventually the GOP is headed for extinction. You cannot be a christian, whites only (except those northern liberal types), gay-hating, xenophobic party and survive in a multi-cultural, multi ethnic sociaty that is the United States of America. In the end, you are on the wrong side of history and in reality, you know this and that is the root of all your anger and hate.

"While the tea party movement is desperately trying to fight off charges of “racist elements” from the NAACP, Ryan J. Murdough, a Republican candidate for New Hampshire State House, has no qualms about expressing his views on race. “It is time for white people in New Hampshire and across the country to take a stand,” Murdough wrote in a letter to the Concord Monitor titled “We must preserve our racial identity”:

'For far too long white Americans have been told that diversity is something beneficial to their existence. Statistics prove that the opposite is true. New Hampshire residents must seek to preserve their racial identity if we want future generations to have to possibility to live in such a great state.

Affirmative action, illegal and legal non-white immigration, anti-white public school systems, and an anti-white media have done much damage to the United States of America and especially New Hampshire. It is time for white people in New Hampshire and across the country to take a stand. We are only 8 percent of the world’s population and we need our own homeland, just like any other non-white group of people deserve their own homeland.

“I think the Tea Party movement is doing great things," he says, repeatedly advising the the tea party to “embrace the fact [that] there is a racial aspect to the movement.” “White people need to stop wasting time arguing about how they are not racist,” he said in one comment."

I remember listening to the Oxycontin addict rant on the radio that dems created a culture of victimization. How funny to read the childish diatribes of a right wing scared by two black men at a polling place in a predominately black neighborhood. I do hope the Gallup poll is the beginning of a trend. In listening to the remarks of Boehner, Cornyn, and Sessions I am disgusted to think anyone would be foolish enough to prefer going back to right wing mismanagement and obfuscation. Facts are stubborn things: a long war of attrition, revenue cuts for a select few and unfunded mandates, all courtesy of the party of no - shame.

Cillizza the WaPo hack falsely calls the Gallup a poll of "registered voters" when it is merely a poll of "national adults" -- a category that includes citizens who are not registered to vote, and even foreigners, who of course are never allowed to vote.

Cillizza either must be either a) a disingenuous hack who knowingly and deliberately misrepresents the poll; or b) an incompetent, sloppy hack who does not fact check his own work.

Good. Maybe the media can ease up on the fear parade about the midterms. Yes, people are unhappy, generally but that doesn't mean we want to go back in time with incoherent and retro candidates.

The all no all the time approach hasn't demonstrated that the GOP has any clue about how to address our problems. They did nothing when they had the majority to keep us out of trouble and provided zero oversight, then as a minority have offered zero productive ideas.

Good. Maybe the media can ease up on the fear parade about the midterms. Yes, people are unhappy, generally but that doesn't mean we want to go back in time with incoherent and retro candidates.

The all no all the time approach hasn't demonstrated that the GOP has any clue about how to address our problems. They did nothing when they had the majority to keep us out of trouble and provided zero oversight, then as a minority have offered zero productive ideas.

bryanmcoleman wrote:
rcc_2000 wrote: "I think that slowly America is coming to realize that the GOP of Ronald Reagan and GHW Bush are gone. The GOP now has become a party of No, idiots shouting about Communist and socialist and bigots who somehow wrap their bigotry in racist logic. In some races I do not see them voting for any candidate instead of voting for a tea klanner.

In some cases it is better to go with the devil you know and with the GOP embracing the Tea Klan the fear of a, nationalistic/race, Nazi like, hate based takeover of America has suddenly become real. And it is starting to scare them... And with justifiable reason.
--------------------------------------

So, are you liberals proud to have this specimen on your side?

To truly understand the progressing demise of the democrats, all you need do is to listen to them and to read what they have to say, like the interesting narrative above.

Piece of advice Comrades, you may want to be more careful regarding what you say and write in public. In expressing yourselves so 'eloquently', your uglier traits, much to your detriment, are made visible for all to see.

Posted by: bryanmcoleman

---------

Comrade? You did see that mentioned the nut jobs that talk about "communists"? Again, you are what ruined the GOP. Stupid now has a political party and it is the Tea Klan.

BTW what "uglier traits" are you talking about? The comparison to the Nazis? or the comparison to the Klan? In the case of the Nazis there are parallels, the Nationalism, the scapegoating of ethnic minorities, taking advantage of economic pains, etc. As for the klan, well all you have to do is go to their website to draw that conclusion (here is their political platform http://www.kkk.bz/program.htm).

And how are my traits any different from yours (except for the fact that you actually are a racist)?

The fact is it is not my sole perception that the Tea Party is actually more like the Tea Klan that is the growing popular perception. It is perpetuated by people like you, the more you talk the deeper in the racist hole you sink.

Right, poll numbers should NEVER be taken as precictive unless they predict that Repubies are going to win. If repubies are predicted, by polls to win, that's bad for Dems. If Dems are precicted to win that's meaningless and ultimately good for repubies.

rcc_2000 wrote: "I think that slowly America is coming to realize that the GOP of Ronald Reagan and GHW Bush are gone. The GOP now has become a party of No, idiots shouting about Communist and socialist and bigots who somehow wrap their bigotry in racist logic. In some races I do not see them voting for any candidate instead of voting for a tea klanner.

In some cases it is better to go with the devil you know and with the GOP embracing the Tea Klan the fear of a, nationalistic/race, Nazi like, hate based takeover of America has suddenly become real. And it is starting to scare them... And with justifiable reason.
--------------------------------------

So, are you liberals proud to have this specimen on your side?

To truly understand the progressing demise of the democrats, all you need do is to listen to them and to read what they have to say, like the interesting narrative above.

Piece of advice Comrades, you may want to be more careful regarding what you say and write in public. In expressing yourselves so 'eloquently', your uglier traits, much to your detriment, are made visible for all to see.

As the GOP descends deeper into its bunker, they continue to concede ground to the Democratic Party. Sure, we have Blue Dogs, "conservaDems" if you will, because they are too reasonable to be accepted in Republican circles.

As it appears to me, the Democrats have the far-left, the left, the center, and parts of the right, leaving only the far-right as a GOP bastion.

Their various scandals, both political and personal, have at least partially alienated religious conservatives, and the hard-right political conservatives are proving to be a bit more than they bargained for.

This mid-term may not be defining, due to many circumstances, but I can't help but think that the longer-term prospects for the GOP are not good without some serious re-thinking.

Lets face the fact that Republicans are utter complete Lunatics, Obama/Dems are HOAX, and the KEY to this amazing sorry state of affairs is the US Media which is almost entirely a right-wing LYING machine.

1st about Republicans, There are many ways to prove that they are utter complete Lunatics(1) , but just take their stand on health care. Republicans are against Universal nationalized health care for American people, when Universal nationalized health care would mean all Americans having health care for the Taxes that we already pay AND health care costing the US Government and Businesses 50% less than what it costs now! And that is why all European countries, Canada, Japan, Australia, in fact all developed nations have Universal Nationalized health care. Put another way, to see crystal clear that the Republican party in US is not a Conservative party at all, but a party of lunatics, consider the FACT that Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative party in UK, Steven Harpers Conservative party in Canada, Angela Merkels Conservative party in Germany, Sarkozy's Conservative party in France, etc. ALL are 100% for their Universal nationalized health care systems. So either all these other Conservative parties are lunatics or the Republican Party in US is a party of lunatics for being against Universal nationalized health care, for calling Universal nationalized health care to be "Socialism..." "Communism..". Or the FACT that the way Universal nationalized health care is operated is the same way that we operate the Military, the Police, the Fire Dept, Courts of law, Coast Guard, etc.

So to even be having a debate with the so called Republican party by this time, 2010, that Universal nationalized health care is the only and best way by far to operate the health care of a country, when ALL the developed nations on EARTH have adopted Universal nationalized health care for decades, is a crystal clear indication that there is something profoundly wrong with the Republican party that really goes beyond the simple term of calling them Lunatics.

OMG!!!! NO! It can't be happening! But the Tea Party, Unemployment, Rand Paul, Mitch "Dribble" McConnell, John Boehner, Harry Reid's gonna get re-elected, Socialism, Socialism, Socialism! Eeghaadds! How could we be losing? Substance wins over Noise every time! You guy's still investing in Gold Coins with Reverend Glenn Beck? LOL!!

........lol.... I know why this column in the confirmed corrupt liberal/progressive POST is called "The FIX". Now for the real numbers:

"Monday, July 19, 2010
Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 18, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans inched up a point from last week, while support for the Democrat fell two points.

While solid majorities of Democrats and Republicans support the candidates of their respective party, voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican candidate by a 47% to 21% margin."

Rasmussen is the most accurate "professional" polling firm in America which is run by Scott Rasmussen, a DEMOCRAT.........Democrats........lol.

The Washington POST = still a dirty dishonest liberal/progressive propaganda outlet for the Democrat Party.......FACT

drindl, I read a lot of things -- some of the things I read are written by leftist tools.

I thought Thiessen's column was interesting, and I am always willing to read about centrist Republicans -- I grew up in an age of centrist Republicans and voted for some of them when I was a young 'un.

I think that slowly America is coming to realize that the GOP of Ronald Reagan and GHW Bush are gone. The GOP now has become a party of No, idiots shouting about Communist and socialist and bigots who somehow wrap their bigotry in racist logic. In some races I do not see them voting for any candidate instead of voting for a tea klanner.

In some cases it is better to go with the devil you know and with the GOP embracing the Tea Klan the fear of a, nationalistic/race, Nazi like, hate based takeover of America has suddenly become real. And it is starting to scare them... And with justifiable reason.

I'm surprised you read Theissen, margaret, he is a tool -- but old Trent Lott had something to say yesterday. The R establishment is starting to realize the teabaggers and other far-right fanatics are going to hurt them going forward:

"Now, after Republican establishment choices were defeated in Senate races from Utah to Kentucky to Nevada, the old guard of the GOP is sounding the alarms.

Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) told the Washington Post that he feared what tea party candidates could do to the Senate:

“We don’t need a lot of Jim DeMint disciples,” Lott said in an interview. “As soon as they get here, we need to co-opt them.”

Lott, who fears a breakdown of the Republican establishment’s power in the Senate, says he’s not expecting tea party candidates to do well in November. Said Lott, “I still have faith in the visceral judgment of the American people.”

mark_in_austin writes
"Of course, the poll could have been one of the bad kind and be not worth a paragraph."

Sounds like the 538 argument is methodological; I haven't checked that site in a while, so I'm not familiar with the argument.

The other point, of course, is: when is a poll result an outlier? Speaking of counting chickens, Dems should look for other confirmations of this potential trend before celebrating.

On the drive in this morning, I was thinking about exactly that; it was announced that June 2010 is the hottest on record, globally. And 2010 thus far is the hottest year on record, again globally - surpassing 1998 at this point, the former hottest year on record. Outliers or trends?

First we had Obama with Rev. Wright - taking his children, week after week, year after year - to hear a person who is RACIST AGAINST WHITES.

Then we have the media completely ignoring Black Liberation Theology - and everything it means.

Then we have the Black Panther case - in which the Justice Department - OBAMA APPOINTEES - dropping a case in which clealy if the persons had been white, the case would never have been dropped that way.

Then we have the BLACK PANTHERS making racial slurs into a microphone - stating a desire to see violence against white children.

THEN WE HAVE AN OBAMA APPOINTEE ON TAPE ADMITTING CIVIL RIGHTS VIOLATIONS AGAINST WHITES.

AND we have her admitting that she made an effort to COVER-UP what she did by sending the person to a "white lawyer."

It's a pretty heft jump from just a few weeks ago, but I tend to put more stock in the same poll showing shifts than in comparing results from two different pollsters.

Republicans have shoved their feet in their mouths for the past few weeks.Sharon Angle misstatements, Boehner on the economy being an ant, their votes against FinReg, the increasing popularity of health care reform. And more importantly, Democrats have been hammering them. Obama has been stumping for them and been attacking hard. As we've seen with previous debates, Obama has a remarkable ability to shift public opinion.

I think the generic ballot results will be kind of weird this year. Remember that people tend to vote based on the economy, which will presumably suck in November. However, unlike in most elections, people are overwhelmingly blaming the minority party for the state of the economy. I don't think this is something we see with most economic downturns.

Wahooo! I'll bet you all wet yourselves when you realized you didn't have to spin something to make it appear a positive for the left. Problem solved. No need to shill for the DNC anymore. Future's looking bright, huh?

I wonder if there was option for "none of the above" , "is this all I have to choose from" or "you have got to be kidding"..

The American people are realizing the republicans are not representing us or our country.
Their undying love and support for Wall St, the rich, big business, their hypocrasy, their priority goal of destroy our president regardless of consequences have made them a disgrace as politicians and for our country.

The Tea Party is helping the Dems a lot ,just by being.Also the way the GOP have been towards the unemployment benefits.I would expect the Dems to have a real good chance of holding both houses.People are just tired of the Grand Old Elitist Party,and will not go back to huge tax cuts for the rich,plus all of the corruption that comes with it.

Andy and bsimon, I wondered as I read this column why there would be a pronounced shift
within a short period. 538 seems to think Gallup's methodology on one kind of poll they do is good and another kind of poll is bad, similar to the mixed blessing 538 gives Rasmussen, as I recall. So let us assume this is the good kind of poll and that it shows a shift from a similar poll taken a month ago.

1] The economy still sucks and small biz and real estate lending are still mere shadows.

2] There is no real prospect that the jobs picture will brighten soon.

3] There is no prospect that we can leave Afg soon.

So what is to like? I have to agree with bsimon and Andy. The Rs position on cutting off the unemployed for fear they will become lazy [expressed by several conservatives on TV] or because they want to preserve the Bush tax cuts [as played by the Ds] surely has hurt the Rs. The apparent capping of the gusher in the Gulf may have allowed a sigh of relief. The dogged doctrinaire campaigns of some Rs may have begun to sound hollow to some. I would like to think passage of FinReg is part of the mix.

Of course, the poll could have been one of the bad kind and be not worth a paragraph.

"If midterm elections are about base turnout and history suggests they are that sort of base energy disparity could signal major Democratic losses in the fall -- no matter what the generic ballot says."

This is working so hard to cheerlead republicans it's actually comical, as well as breathlessly unpunctuated.

screwwjob17 writes
"The nerve of that Rasmussen, only polling actual American citizens who are registered to vote and who actually vote in elections."

That's a reasonable point. The Gallup & Rasmussen polls have different goals, so it should come as no surprise their methodologies also differ. Gallup's poll is a public opinion poll, not an electoral prediction poll. For public opinion it makes sense that they don't weight their sample based on voting patterns. For polls trying to predict election outcomes, it makes more sense to try to weight your sample according to likelihood to vote; but that is also much trickier, as you have to guess a bit more at what are the indicators that accurately predict who will show up in November.

The loss of work to other countries, while painful in the short term, will enrich the economy eventually, his report to Congress says.
WASHINGTON — The movement of American factory jobs and white-collar work to other countries is part of a positive transformation that will enrich the U.S. economy over time, even if it causes short-term pain and dislocation, the Bush administration said Monday.

The embrace of foreign outsourcing, an accelerating trend that has contributed to U.S. job losses in recent years and has become an issue in the 2004 elections, is contained in the president's annual report to Congress on the health of the economy.

No the Gallup poll is not a sample of "registered voters" it is a poll of "adults" a category that includes foreigners and also Americans who are not registered to vote: in other words they poll any adult who answers the phone. Why does WaPo misrepresent the facts?

A year ago, we were all talking GOP post mortem.. so whenever the Dems have a positive blip now, remember they are fighting a carcass of a party.. it means very little.

The WV senate deal is hilarious.. have a marathon to get nowhere.. the best thing you VA people ever got was losing that part of your state (you owe Linclon a great deal of gratitude) and should have a state holiday for 6/20/1863. I hope Goodwin got a mobile home in the D.C. area.

I think the GOP is very bitter toward Obama and his bipartisanship doesn't fit with his political leanings.. it's probably a non-starter. The GOP has nothing to lose by holding up his agenda, his agenda isn't exactly winning the hearts and minds of the voters.

The usual rightwing Post trash -- it looks like good news for Democrats -- and it would be good news if it were for republicans, but since it's democrats there's a whole lot of caveats that mean it's actually bad news for Democrats.

1) Dems regaining ground shouldn't come as a surprise - Repubs badly misplayed their hand on extending unemployment citing concern about deficits. Dems will continue to hammer them on the extension of the Bush tax cuts, which will further batter Repubs' image. This thing ain't over yet & some may have been guilty of counting chickens before they done hatched.

Interesting that the Post article claiming that Obama's anti-Arizona, and anti-majority of Americans, according to all polls, stance on illegal aliens will be a "plus for Democrats" was closed after just two posts. Interesting, but also wonderfully revealing and symbolic of media reporting on this issue.
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Border Enforcement + Immigration Moratorium = Job, Crime and Eco Sanity.

I have been paying attention to politics since Carter and I can't remember the last time either side was upfront about a program and its costs. This is, of course, in part poltical because programs cost money. This is also in part because it is genuinely difficult to know exaclty what the costs are going to be, whether it is NCLB, the war in Iraq, or the health care proposal. Both sides will chose an accounting method that suits their purposes, using the CBO when it agrees with their side or refuting when it does not. Please do not make the claim that only Ds do this. It is simply not true.

Doug: And thank YOU for thanking Chris on that issue. The nuanced approach to talking and writing about politics is not utilized enough -- and we all suffer b/c we don't get good information. It's easier to focus on the black-and-white partisan bickering.

Meanwhile the new Rasmussen poll of 3500 likely voters has Republicans ahead by + 9. The nerve of that Rasmussen, only polling actual American citizens who are registered to vote and who actually vote in elections.

All these polls should be taken with a grain of salt this far out from the election. But this same poll was once 49-45 Republicans.

As Pat Buchanan said on MSNBC, there is an excessive overconfidence among Republicans and an excessive down-in-the-mouth among Democrats.

The Party of No thing will not work for the GOP in the long run, we all know. America has problems and Americans want solutions, not just partisan carping. But this poll suggests that the Party of No label may not fly in the short-term either, despite conventional wisdom in Washington.

Chris, thank you for taking the time to explain the caveats. I think that you've done a nice job of explaining how the numbers suggest certain conclusions while not providing high confidence in other conclusions.

This is the rub with the attacks on Obama's partisanship. If you think Obama has a point when he talks about Republican tactics, then is it being partisan or just stating a fact? If you think the Republicans have been dealing with Obama fairly, then his calls are clearly partisan. I think on certain issues, especially bigger ones (health care and the stimulus), Obama has at least started out with a good faith effort to offer proposals that would please both sides of the aisle. In the end he was pretty firmly rejected by the Republicans who claimed to want to work with him, but never offered more than we need to start over.

There is no doubt that the Democrats will lose seats. I think they will maintain a clear hold on the Senate and a tenuous hold on the House.

You are right that the democrats are desperate to stop the bleeding - and change the subject to something else.

The only problem is that everything the democrats can come up with is filled with deceptions and lies. The democratic platform has been completely destroyed by Obama - the nation has rejected his far-left agenda and there is nothing left.

The bankruptcy of the democrat's ideas is clear - the federal budget has no more room for massive programs and massive taxes - the democrats have proven time and time again that massive programs is all they are about.

The federal budget is already filled with massive programs that democrats created - programs long forgotten about but still spending billions of dollars.

At this point, Americans have to borrow trillions to pay for the PILE-UP OF MASSIVE DEMOCRATIC PROGRAMS.

Apparently all the democrats care about is creating ANOTHER massive government program because the next democrats wants to be in the history books for creating another massive government program.

How these things are paid for - that is a discussion that democrats avoid. Try getting a democrats to start talking numbers on the costs of any massive program.

ASK ANY DEMOCRAT - what is the total cost for that proposed program you are talking about ?

You get this rambling about "we paid for Iraq" or there was "a tax cut"

YOU NEVER HEAR A DEMOCRAT SAY - this program is going to cost 700 Billion over 5 years and I think we can handle that number.

Broadwayjoe, didn't you see the 4 paragraphs about all the bad news in this poll for Democrats? Sure, it LOOKS like Democrats are doing well in the generic ballot poll, but there's still plenty of bad news if you dig deeply enough!

The previous post about the generic ballot, from July 1, is a little different. It only talks about how independents hate Obama, without the paragraphs of caveats. Generic polling is only non-predictive and unreliable when it has good news for Democrats, apparently.

........lol.... I know why this column in the confirmed corrupt liberal/progressive POST is called "The FIX". Now for the real numbers:

"Monday, July 19, 2010
Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 18, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans inched up a point from last week, while support for the Democrat fell two points.

While solid majorities of Democrats and Republicans support the candidates of their respective party, voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican candidate by a 47% to 21% margin."

Rasmussen is the most accurate "professional" polling firm in America which is run by Scott Rasmussen, a DEMOCRAT.........Democrats........lol.

The Washington POST = still a dirty dishonest liberal/progressive propaganda outlet for the Democrat Party.......FACT

In the context of a HYPER-partisan attack speech against the Republicans on the unemployment bill issues - Obama starts complaining that the Republicans have not put politics aside.

Let me be clear: in the middle of a partisan speech, Obama attacks the Republicans for not putting election politics to the side.

There is a limit to HYPOCRISY - and this guy Obama has got to be kidding.

This is exactly the kind of stuff which has gotten Obama into such deep trouble in the minds of millions and millions of Americans.

One can not take a stand on a principle - and criticize the other side for not adhering to this higher ideal - and then the NATION HAS TO WATCH AS OBAMA VIOLATES THE EXACT PRINCIPLE WHICH HE IS PROCLAIMING.

There is a "winch factor" here - there is an ugly factor to it - there is an aspect to it that it is hard to look at.

It just looks so bad - and Obama appears to be tone-deaf to the self-violation of his own principles.

The Gallup poll I think demonstrates what I have been saying for months, that the GOP peaked with the election of Scott Brown. If you look at their trajectory they were gaining ground in leaps and bounds that culminated in Brown's victory. After that the polls started to level off since the American public realized that the GOP now had to show them what they had to offer. Now the public has realized that the GOP isn't going to offer anything in the form of a real agenda. On top of that you have the Tea-party folks making outrageous statements about racism, Social security, medicare, etc, which is allowing the Democrats to start playing offense again.

That is not to say that the Democrats are out of the woods yet, but polls should be examined in terms of what the trend shows. This poll shows that the dems may have hit their floor and the GOP has hit its ceiling. Additionally, this is about when the General public will start to pay attention to the election, so if the Democrats can keep the conversation moving in their favor they have a good chance to stop the bleeding and turn this thing around. Although an unemployment number of 410,000 or lower this week would really be helpful too.

silowa1: joe has been pointing out the obvious with CC's blogs for a long time. One doesn't need a microscope to see CC's bias over the years, but my fave will always be the jan07/09 posting saying " I've known Chip Saltzman for a longtime and he is the furthest thing from a racist." Fine to defend a friend but to do so without acknowledging that the Barack the Magic Negro cd was crass, rude, disrespectful, and deeply offensive to millions of people, and that Chip was an idiot to put it out, is beyond the pale. Yet CC didn't get fired for that nor did he get fired for calling the sitting secretary of state, HRC, a female dog on a live feed. So joe has every right to point out CC's bias, considering that wapo in their immense wisdom made him the head of the wapo poli page.

If one looks at the link above - there appears a chart which clearly shows that in the past two months, there have been two times in which 5 point gaps have opened up on this poll.

Granted, both those times, the Republicans were ahead - but the truth is that the gaps opened up and then closed immediately.

There is little reason to believe that 3 times in the past few months, gaps opened up in the public mind - then then closed right away.

So there has to be something with the poll which causes this to happen - whether it is how people approach the question or the polling methods themselves.

Also, these questions focus on Congress - so whatever is in the news that particular week may affect the polling results - only to return a short time later.

MIDTERMS - the overwhelming issue this fall will be how the voters feel about Obama - and because Obama is not on the ballot, the democrats in Congress are going to take the hit.

It is that simple - the public has no where else to vent their anger.

The democrats in Congress have given Obama the votes - so the venting of anger in their direction is justified and fair.

Somehow - I believe that this dynamic is somewhat muted on the telephone polling - when a person is asked about Congress - perhaps they do not immediately think about Obama or they attempt to separate their feelings about Obama out.

This would be especially true if there was a question about Obama immediately before this question.

Right now Sarah is concerned about one thing. Sarah Palin (R) and by that I don't mean Republican. I mean (R) registered trademark. She has a brand to build and a job to do. She is going to do what it takes to excite her base and attract more attention. Mama Grizzlies!!! But seriously, Sarah is turning out to be the most influential woman politicians in American History. Now if you were to take an objective look at Palin's record you'd see how she has positioned herself to be on the 2012 ticket, check the story out