Skipping school

Many of the million or more children turned away from school yesterday welcomed the teachers' strike. Their parents may have been less impressed at having to improvise childcare while their offspring's education was disrupted. The strikers have a decent case, but are unlikely to succeed. Parental views carry more political weight than those of the youngsters enjoying an unscheduled day off.

The National Union of Teachers has not recently been in a mood of disruptive militancy. Its much-mourned leader Steve Sinnott, who died suddenly two weeks ago, spent his final months mending broken bridges with the government, seeking to influence policy instead of simply opposing it. This strike was not whipped out of thin air, but born of genuine resentment. The planned pay rise of 2.45% lags behind living costs, which are running at 3.8%, and so represents a cut in real terms. Employers point to other inflation measures which are lower. But these exclude housing, so are of little meaning to teachers who need to pay for a home. The offer follows similar deals over the last two years and prefigures small planned rises for 2009 and 2010 which are unlikely to make good the difference. Tony Blair used to claim education was his first, second and third priorities, and teachers feel that Labour should be treating them better.

Take a slightly longer view, however, and the government's record appears much better. Over the decade salaries have gone up by a fifth in real terms, which is one reason why the rate of vacancies is down by more than half since 2001. That reality looms large in the minds of cash-strapped ministers who are aware that parents are more interested in class sizes than they are in teachers' pay. The deal also looks somewhat less bitter in the context of offers to other public sector workers - the police, for example, unlike the teachers, are getting their meagre rise in stages. From driving test examiners to coastguards, thousands of civil servants were also on strike yesterday, and many of them have been awarded less than 2%. Hard-pressed teachers will not draw much comfort from the fact that others are faring worse. But when the total public pay bill stands at around £160bn, agreeing to the demands of one group that is faring relatively well could prove a pricey precedent for the government.

Yesterday's strike was bigger than expected, suggesting it had wide support within the NUT. Many teachers, however, are in other unions which oppose the action. As ever, division between the unions weakens them. But even if the profession could put on a united front, teachers would face a tough battle to win public hearts and minds.