Hurricane ADRIAN

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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011
ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EYE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE AND NEARLY EMBEDDED
IN THE CENTER OF A ROUND CDO...WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -75C. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB ARE T6.5/127 KT AND T5.5/102 KT...RESPECTIVELY. UW-CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND T6.1/118
KT AND NHC ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T6.7/130 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 120 KT...MAINLY DUE TO
INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE -70C/WHITE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN THAT EXTENDS
FROM MAINLAND MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AND TOWARD GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NONE OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN ACROSS ANY LAND AREAS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...HOWEVER...STILL
HAVE A PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD BIAS TOWARD BAJA AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH
IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE ADRIAN REMAINS
BASICALLY ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.
ADRIAN HAS INTENSIFIED 85 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IS LIKELY
NEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SUCH LONG DURATION RAPID INTENSIFICATION
EVENTS ARE QUITE RARE. HAVING SAID THAT...MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR
HURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. WITH NO CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN...
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C AND IN
LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 5 KT OR LESS. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE BY 24 HOURS AS ADRIAN ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST
BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 14.6N 105.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.3N 108.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.6N 109.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.6N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 17.4N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 18.7N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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