Lost in Transactions 5/18-5/24/09: Weeks lost for year, Nolasco demoted

Rickie Weeks dealt a blow to the Milwaukee Brewers with a season-ending injury, but will Mat Gamel soften that blow? Both Florida teams gave up on a top starter while the Brewers and Padres swung a trade.

NOTE: This is an abbreviated Lost in Transactions due to both the holiday and a blogger’s worst nightmare: losing his work on a glitch and having to do it all over again.

5/18/09

Isringhausen is back in fine form, tossing three scoreless innings for the big league club since being activated. He had been on ice for some time as the Rays weren’t prepared to give him a bullpen spot just yet. Izzy chose to stick around with the understanding he would be called up before June.

Interestingly, while Isringhausen’s injury-marred 5.70 ERA campaign in 2008 caused him to have to take a minor league deal from the Rays, it wasn’t his worst year as a closer according to FIP. That came in 2006, when he posted a 5.70 FIP and 5.86 BB/9 ratio. He was able to finish with 33 saves and a 3.55 ERA.

Isringhausen had a great run as Athletics/Cardinals closer and now has a shot to be a closer in Tampa Bay with Troy Percival questioning continuing his career.

Is Izzy the right choice?

So far, J.P. Howell has been far and away the best reliever on the team. Despite an ERA higher than last year’s (2.86 to 2.22), he’s actually been better than last year. His K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all better. The batting average against and BABIP, however, have soared. Howell has no control over BABIP, so that should regress slightly. The BAA I’m not too sure of—getting to know a pitcher and his strengths and weaknesses generally allows a better chance for a batter to make contact.

Either way, Howell has the credentials to be a top-flight closer in the league. Grant Balfour, the other half of the shutdown duo that pitched the eighth for the Rays last year, is struggling with command, as he has his entire career save 2008. He’s already showing signs of turning things around, lowering his WHIP in May to 1.34 from 2.05. He’s another option at closer, although I fear he’s too erratic with his command to succeed long-term.

Everyone else in the bullpen is a solid complementary piece, even Lance Cormier, the well-traveled journeyman at the tender age of 30. Cormier has a sparkling 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 31.1 innings, leading the Rays bullpen in the latter category. How did someone with a career 5.24 ERA bust through like this?

Simple: Cormier has gone completely away from his fastball. After throwing it predominantly in 2005 and 2006 with the Diamondbacks and Braves, respectively, he blew up in 2007 with his fastball. Using Fangraph’s linear weights for pitch type, it’s clear that hitters were teeing off his fastball. After honing his cutter and showing improvement last year with the Orioles, he is throwing it over half the time four years after using it sparingly. His second pitch is a curveball, and only then does he break out the fastball as a show-me pitch. As a result, batters are flying out far more often than they used to, at the expense of line drives. I’m going to go on a limb and say that the cutter has made Cormier into a solid reliever. He’s certainly no candidate to close (yet) but as a sixth-seventh inning man in the bullpen, you could do far, far worse.

5/19/09

Milwaukee Brewers placed 2B Rickie Weeks on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 17. Torn tendon in his left wrist.

Weeks was finally showing flashes of the power potential the Brewers had long dreamed of. Weeks had nine home runs in 37 games for a .272/.340/.517 line. He’ll certainly be missed, but fortunately, the Brewers are in a position to withstand the loss.

First, the defense. Weeks has long been considered a below-average second baseman. Whether or not he was showing signs of coming out of it (25.7 UZR/150 this year), the likelihood is that number would not have been sustainable and he would have ended the season as a below-average second baseman. The loss of Weeks allows the Brewers to shore up their defense at second with Craig Counsell and Hernan Iribarren.

Yes, the two don’t come close to Weeks’ offensive potential, but that’s where Mat Gamel comes in.

Gamel, 23, came up in place of Brad Nelson last week to serve as a left-handed bat off the bench. With the loss of Weeks, he is playing more often and his bat is replacing Weeks’ just fine— .250/.368/.563 so far on the year. Granted, that’s in just 16 at-bats, but he’s not going to have trouble keeping that power display up.

Would it have been better to have Weeks and Gamel in the lineup at the same time? Sure, but that wasn’t happening. The Brewers were playing Counsell extensively and platooning him with Bill Hall. While Hall is still the primary third baseman, Gamel is grabbing the at-bats that Counsell would have whisked away if he hadn’t been shifted over to second base. Casey McGehee is also getting some at-bats, but I can’t see that lasting even though the Brewers don’t view Counsell as an everyday player.

I know much has been made about Hall’s offensive struggles being due to his nomadic fielding experience, but I’m not sure I buy it. Since day one coming up, Hall has played everywhere. Only in 2007 did he stick to one position, that being center field. That year saw his power numbers slip, numbers that fell even further in 2008 when he played third base exclusively. He’s even worse so far this year, following up a .899 OPS in April with a staggeringly bad .397 OPS in May.

Hall has roughly half the innings at second than he does at third, but it’s a number that shows he can play second, albeit not as well as third. With Gamel limited to just third, I contend that Hall and Counsell should split the duties at second with Hall also seeing time at third with Mat Gamel. McGehee or Iribarren should be deposed to the minors once Frank Catalanotto is ready to play. Hall has long struggled to hit right handers, so I don’t think it’s impossible to have him be the full-time second baseman against lefties while shuttling between second and third against righties.

It would improve the Brewers’ offense, and it’s a move that needs to be made to mitigate Weeks’ loss.

5/21/09

Speaking of the Brewers, here’s a move to try to inject some more offense into their team. Gerut immediately becomes the fourth outfielder—the only one. This means he’ll get plenty of playing time to snap out of the funk he saw himself in to start 2009.

Gerut was a great story for the Padres last year, battling back from injuries that robbed him of three years. He played sensational defense in center along with hitting .296/.351/.474. Those are numbers that he couldn’t possibly repeat, but he’s definitely better than his .222/.254/.376 showing so far. After all, he did hit 22 home runs in his rookie season for the Indians in 2003. He may never be a classic starter again, but he’s definitely one of the better fourth outfielders in the game.

He’ll see a bit of playing time cut when Catalanotto is activated, but should carry plenty of value to the Brewers the rest of the year. With Gamel and Gerut, the Brewers a far better team than they were when Weeks went down. Now if they just boot Hall off of third for Gamel, they really have something going.

If I’m the Brewers’ general manager (if you haven’t noticed, I’m not) I see about dangling Hall and prospects to get that starting pitcher they sorely need. Is Hall plus a couple of solid prospects enough to get Jake Peavy? No. Is it enough to get Erik Bedard? Maybe.

Ron Gardenhire was doing no favors by rotating through a four-man outfield. Carlos Gomez at this point is an incredible liability at the plate and should either be viewed strictly as a defensive backup or optioned to the minors to learn how to hit.

Denard Span has gotten off to a strong start this year and seems to be making himself into one of the better 2/6 hitters in the game. This is a guy I would want on my team, although he seems to be a liability in center field (but not the corners).

Young, in left, has been far from what the Twins were hoping to get. Young was a much ballyhooed prospect coming up in Tampa and hit .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs for the then-Devil Rays in 2007. There was no reason to think those power numbers could go up. Although Young dramatically increased his walk rate (3.6 percent in 2007, 5.7 percent in 2008), his power remained unchanged. So far this year in inconsistent playing time, he’s at .264/.309/.310. I don’t think that’s any way to treat someone you hope can eventually anchor your lineup.

I can understand the Twins’ infatuation with Gomez, but right now they’re doing no favors by throwing Gomez out there. Fortunately, Gardenhire has settled on a Young-Span-Michael Cuddyer outfield, which I think is the right move. Aaron Gleeman disagrees, mentioning that Gomez’s defense greatly narrows the gap between what Young’s and Gomez’s offensive statistics might otherwise show.

This is true, but you can’t expect Young to start cranking doubles and home runs if he doesn’t play, and while the Twins are trying to contend, I don’t think they can afford to sit Young with Joe Mauer‘s free agency looming. They need to have a developed bat in the off chance Mauer leaves Minnesota. As Gleeman notes, with Gomez in center field and Span in left, the defense is “30 to 35 runs above average per 150 games. Meanwhile, as a duo, Span in center field and Young in left field has been 45 to 50 runs below average per 150 games.”

That’s significant. Is it significant enough to bench Young and play Gomez? I say no. Again, Gomez is horrible offensively and he needs to learn how to hit. He can’t do that at the big league level without severely compromising the club, and it’s a disaster for Gomez to waste away on the bench. This is a guy who has been rushed to the majors in the Mets/Twins organizations. He could do with an extended stint in Triple-A, and I hope the Twins figure that out sooner or later.

The best short- and long-term move for the Twins is to start Young full time and demote Gomez. If they’re that concerned about losing defense and speed, the free agent class is littered with major-and minor-league veterans who can serve nicely in that role.

5/22/09

Toronto Blue Jays recalled RHP Casey Janssen from Las Vegas 51s.

Janssen is finally back after missing all of 2008. In 2007, he had established himself as a reliever to be feared, checking in with a 2.35 ERA in 72.2 innings. His FIP was pretty strong at 3.83 but he didn’t rely on strikeouts to get outs, so it was a question how long he could sustain this success.

Janssen is stingy with the walks, which is what gives him most of his value as he’s can’t be termed a groundball (or flyball) pitcher. In 2006, what Janssen did as a starter that hurt him was his home runs— 1.5 HR/9 is not going to help you at all.

BABIPs both years were below .300, so he does a good job getting outs in the field. Largely dependent on his defense, though, he’ll likely struggle when placed on a team with defensive issues. The Jays are pretty strong in this department, so he has nothing to be concerned about.

He was going to get a shot to start again in 2008 before things changed. Now that he’s back, he’s entered the rotation to give the Jays some depth. When Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum come back later this year, they’ll finally have a formidable rotation. Can they get back in time for the club to stay afloat in the East? Probably not, but this team took a huge step forward psychologically, which will have lasting effects for months and years to come.

It’s always hard to really trust someone who relies so much on pitching to contact and keeping those balls in the park, but Paul Byrd will raise his hand and show you it can be done.

5/23/09

A year after tossing 212.1 innings for the Marlins, Nolasco finds himself in the minors in May.

His impressive 3.52 ERA (backed by a 3.77 FIP) meant he was going to be leaned on this year to help send this pitching staff to the playoffs.

That didn’t work out as anticipated. Nine starts into the season, he sports a tidy 9.07 ERA, with 66 hits in 43.2 innings. His K/9 remains consistent and while his BB/9 has risen to 2.68, that’s hardly devastating. No, what hurt him was his obscene .402 BABIP. FIP has him at a 4.80 ERA.

You would think the Marlins would know this and remain patient with Nolasco, but with owner Jeffrey Loria breathing down their necks to contend, a move had to be made. (Oh, now you care, Jeffrey?)

With Chris Volstad struggling in May and Sean West as their No. 4 starter, Nolasco’s going to be back in short order. Bank on it.

5/24/09

I’m disappointed this move occurred. Of course, it’s hard to argue against it when your starter has racked up 17 hits and seven walks against only three strikeouts in 11.2 innings. His 10.80 ERA is awful, and his FIP doesn’t offer much encouragement with a 6.92 calculation.

But what about what he did in Triple-A? Forty innings of starts, 0.90 ERA, 3.00 K/BB ratio? Unlike Minnesota’s Gomez, whom we discussed earlier, Hochevar has nothing left to learn in the minors. For whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to put it all together in the majors, but he needs to pitch in the majors to do just that.

The Royals are trying to capitalize on their hot start and have likely grown frustrated with Hochevar. If that’s the case, they ought to trade him. The Padres and Nationals, I’m sure, would have interest in Hochevar. The Royals could use some help on offense, especially at second or short. I could see the Nationals dangling Ronnie Belliard or Cristian Guzman along with a blue-chip position player prospect to grab Hochevar. It’s unlikely to happen, but it’s a thought.

Bottom line: if the Royals can’t afford to give Hochevar the innings he needs, he needs to go to a different major league team. It’s the only way he’ll have a shot to come around. Of course, all that being said, he’s going to return to the majors in two weeks the next time the Royals need a fifth starter. I’m really surprised the Royals are taking to yo-yoing Hochevar all over the place. Keep him in the majors. Why is Sidney Ponson collecting a big league salary if Hochevar isn’t?