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TUE, 11 DEC 2001 00:07:10 GMT

The Danube on Ice

AIM Zagreb, November 30, 2001

When the Croatian and Yugoslav presidents, Stjepan Mesic and Vojislav
Kostunica, respectively, signed a joint statement at a summit of Central
European heads of state in Verbania at the beginning of summer, much
praised by the international community, the Racan government responded
icily. The media were informed that the statement issued by the two
presidents, which the world perceived as leading to a normalization of
relations between Croatia and Yugoslavia, was not binding to the
cabinet, that it did not intend "to give it much consideration" and
would, instead, "operationalize our own concept of normalizing relations
with Yugoslavia." It, furthermore, attempted to frame Mesic for
allegedly dividing the guilt for provoking the war with Kostunica.

Obviously, the thick ice on the Danube did not even crack. Official
Zagreb and Belgrade had much better relations while Tudjman and
Milosevic were in charge then after democratic and pro-reform parties
came to power. Diplomatic relations that were at the ambassadorial level
have been downgraded to the rank of charges d'affaires. In a bid to
demonstrate that it belongs to Europe, Croatia is turning its back on
everything that lies east of its borders. In the past months Croatian
foreign policy officials said and showed on a number of occasions that
they are not overly interested in having normal ties with their eastern
neighbor.

"We are not Slovenians, who immediately rushed to Belgrade," they said
sarcastically. The cabinet, furthermore, issued a list of ten conditions
Belgrade has to fulfill, which includes all sorts of issues -- from the
handing over of Hague indictees to the Hague tribunal, especially the
Vukovar trio, to demanding that, given relations between Belgrade and
Podgorica, Yugoslavia finally define its borders.

Analysts believe that the Croatian cabinet is deliberately keeping
relations with Serbia and Yugoslavia frozen for internal reasons, in
order to avoid provoking rightists' rage. But this policy of
indifference was several times criticized as irrational even by Mate
Granic, former long-time foreign minister from the ranks of the Croatian
Democratic Union, whose great diplomatic experience cannot be denied.
His stance is that Croatia, if willing to join Europe, must prove its
maturity by acting constructively and normalizing its relations in the
region.

Similar messages have been arriving from Brussels. Under international
pressure the Croatian and Yugoslav foreign ministers, Tonino Picula and
Goran Svilanovic, met recently on the margins of a U.N. General Assembly
session in New York. In a joint statement they announced outstanding and
painful issues would be resolved and relations between Belgrade and
Zagreb improved. According to them, a mixed commission for borders will
be set up, and the Prevlaka issue would also be
settled soon. The peninsula is still controlled by a U.N. observer
mission. They also said that ambassadors would be exchanged soon.
Yugoslavia obliged itself to return to Croatia the Vukovar art
collection that was stolen during the war. Picula immediately said that
Croatia's road to Europe passes through Belgrade, and Svilanovic said he
was ready to come to Zagreb via Vukovar, with an apology.

But instead of making good on what it said, Zagreb sent Belgrade a new,
reduced list of conditions: Croatia will normalize relations with
Yugoslavia, that is, Serbia if the latter apologizes for its aggression
and removes from the Serbian cabinet Momcilo Perisic, sentenced in
Croatia to 20 years in prison for shelling Zadar during the war. Picula
said: "Croatia expects an apology from Serbia for aggression and
destruction;" "Croatia expects changes in the Serbian cabinet as a sign
of true resolve to improve relations;" Croatia "cannot cooperate with a
cabinet that includes Momcilo Perisic;" "Regular cooperation with such a
cabinet would mean an indirect pardon."

Serbian Vice Premier Zarko Korac, who is very respected in Zagreb thanks
to his democratic openness, responded to Picula. The Zagreb media
carried his claims that the conditions posed by Zagreb will stall the
normalization process in the region. He said Picula had every right to
have clear and public views, but his interference in the makeup of the
Serbian cabinet was unacceptable. Korac said that this could lead to new
conditions being posed. Croatia is not sinless either. "I could say that
the fact that very few Serbs have returned to Croatia is an obstacle for
me to talk with the Croatian foreign minister. But, for me it is one
more reason to meet with him," Korac said.

President Mesic recently accepted a similar view, by saying that
conditioning normalizing works both ways. He said Croatia has reason to
be dissatisfied in regard to Perisic, and has every right to express its
dissatisfaction, but has no right to set conditions: "It is good for
Croatia to say that Perisic's position in the Serbian cabinet will not
help to establish mutual trust, but Croatia cannot determine the makeup
of another country's cabinet," Mesic said. He believes that it is in
Zagreb's interest to cooperate with Yugoslavia and Serbia and should not
reject them. Thus it has once more been confirmed that the Croatian
authorities are split on the issue: the president has one opinion and
the cabinet another.

Mesic's stance that cooperation is needed precisely because of
outstanding and painful issues is supported by the international
community, which views the Croatian conditions as an unwarranted
pretense. World power centers hold that Croatia is in no position to
lecture anyone because it is quite uncertain who did more -- Zagreb or
Belgrade -- in distancing itself from previous regimes, in cooperating
with the Hague court, in showing readiness to apologize for the events
in Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example. In regard to this, both Croatia
and Yugoslavia still have much to do.