Sunday, February 25, 2007

The Breakdown The Big East has gone from being a relatively easy conference to try and predict to being very messy. Villanova continues to hover around .500 in conference which is not a great place to be in the Big East. They have had probably the hardest conference schedule in the Big East, so they have a good excuse. They are still fairly safe for now, and with the games they have left (@UConn, Syracuse), they have a good opportunity to get to 9-7 which would make them a virtual lock for a bid. West Virginia was one of the last teams to make it into the field this week. They were unable to pick up what would have been a nice road win at Providence last week, so now they have little room for error. Their home win over UCLA got them back into the bracket a few weeks ago and is keeping them there for the time being. They have a solid record but a borderline RPI (57). They have a great chance this week to get a resume making road win at Pitt, but should they be unable to win that, all they need is to take care of Cinci at home to get to 9-7. All they would need after that is one Big East Tourney win. Syracuse has won four in a row and already has 9 Big East wins. They are in a similar situation to WVU in that they have a gaudy record with a mediocre RPI (53). They finish up with Georgetown and @'Nova, so we expect them to end up 9-7. Without any marquee OOC wins that won't be enough to send them dancing.

Michigan State moved back into the bracket in a big way. After home wins against Wisconsin and Indiana, they were able to move up to a 6 seed. Illinois took care of business this week and if they can pick up a win in their last conference regular season game @Iowa this week then they can feel a bit more comfortable at 10-6. Purdue was unable to take some pressure off after losing @Iowa this week. They have 2 winnable home games left (Minnesota, Northwestern) which they must have and then one win in the conference tourney should be enough to stamp their ticket.

We went with two teams out of the Horizon for the first time this season. Wright State and Butler ended up tied for first in conference but Wright State won the tie-breaker so they will now have the opportunity to play on their home floor. They just recently beat Butler at home so we like their chances to do it again. Our other conference where we still like a bid to be stolen is the WAC. New Mexico State dropped their first home game of the season to Fresno State but we still like them to come out on top on their home floor next week in the conference tourney.

The Colonial conference wrapped up its regular season this week. The CAA conference tourney is wide open and should be very entertaining. We still like it to be a one bid league with ODU coming out on top, but there are definitely some scenarios that could develop to give the conference two bids. The VCU-Drexel semifinal game (if it happens) would determine who has the best chance to be the second CAA team in if they were to lose in the final to ODU. In the MWC, SDSU continued its home dominance with a blowout win over BYU. Their overall profile is mediocre, but their recent home blowouts of BYU, UNLV, and Air Force have been impressive. They now have an opportunity to finish at least tied for third with Air Force in conference and that, coupled with a MWC tourney championship appearance, would give them an outside shot at an at-large.

We will post another bracket on Thursday or Friday and starting next week we will update the bracket daily if needed.

There's nothing better in college basketball than the tradition of storming the court. Whether it's participating in the rush yourself, or watching it unfold on TV, it's impossible to match the enthusiasm and school spirit that comes out when thousands of students storm the floor after a huge upset win.

At Bracketology 101, we continue to honor the efforts of students across the country with a new late-season column: Bracketology 101's Rush of the Week. Each week we post our favorite court-storming photos, and give you the fans the chance to send your own photos in as well. We pick one photo each week as the winner, and post the photo on B101.

This week's winner is a photo of Michigan State's rush after beating Wisconsin on Tuesday.

Here's this week's Rush of the Week:

(Photo courtesy the Associated Press)

If you have a photo you wish to nominate for next week's Rush of the Week, e-mail a link to the photo to Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Monday, February 19, 2007

There's nothing better in college basketball than the tradition of storming the court. Whether it's participating in the rush yourself, or watching it unfold on TV, it's impossible to match the enthusiasm and school spirit that comes out when thousands of students storm the floor after a huge upset win.

At Bracketology 101, we want to honor the efforts of students across the country with a new late-season column: Bracketology 101's Rush of the Week. Each week we will post our favorite court-storming photos, and give you the fans the chance to send your own photos in as well. We'll pick one photo each week as the winner, and post the photo on B101.

This week's innaugural winner is a photo of Vanderbilt's rush after beating Florida on Saturday.

Here's this week's Rush of the Week:

(Photo courtesy the Associated Press)

If you have a photo you wish to nominate for next week's Rush of the Week, e-mail a link to the photo to Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

Sunday, February 18, 2007

The BreakdownThere were several teams this week that had huge wins and now find themselves in the bracket, as well as a handful of teams that played badly enough to find themselves out or very close to being out altogether. The ACC had two teams (Clemson and Florida State) who were fairly comfortably in last week and now find themselves out. Clemson has really struggled, losing 7 of 9, and with the way they are playing and the schedule they have left it's tough to envision them getting to even 7-9 in conference. Florida State has now lost 4 in a row and have been swept by fellow ACC bubble boys Georgia Tech and Clemson. A win at streaking Maryland this week is necessary to get themselves back on the good side of the bubble. Georgia Tech picked up a huge road win against Florida State (their first in 2 years) to make a jump back into the field. They still have plenty of work to do but if they can win 3 more games this season they will get a bid. They have 3 out of their last 4 at home (Wake, @UVa, UNC, BC) and if they can pick up 2 more wins and another win the in ACC tourney it will be enough for a bid given their solid out of conference wins. Maryland had a solid week, picking up two road wins, which jumped them from a 12 seed to a 9.

In the Big 12, Texas Tech picked up a big win at Texas A&M to end their five game skid and land themselves back in the field. They have a huge home game this week with Oklahoma State which will likely be a must win game for both teams. Oklahoma State ended up being the most hotly debated team this week between Chris and Craig and even though their seed may not indicate it they were essentially the last team in. Their road troubles has killed their seed in recent weeks but losing to Missouri at home almost get them knocked out of the field. Their quality neutral court wins (Syracuse, Pitt, Missouri State) is what is keeping them in the field but they will need to pick up some road wins down the stretch to remain there. Their games coming up against Texas Tech and Kansas State are huge. Kansas State dropped out of the field because of their loss at Nebraska. Their 8-4 Big 12 record is deceiving since all but one of those wins came against teams in the bottom half of the league. They have a great chance for a resume making win with Kansas coming in Monday.

Purdue grabbed one of the last 4 bids with its win over Indiana and will need to prove itself on the road this week to remain in the field. Illinois needs to win out with the schedule they have left to feel secure about getting a bid. Michigan State faces a must win next weekend with Indiana coming in (assuming they lose to Wisconsin). Every other Big 10 bubble boy was able to beat Indiana at home so MSU needs to follow suit.

Georgia was left out this week because they lost their second leading scorer, Mike Mercer, for the season. They have some tough games left to try and prove themselves without Mercer but we don't like their chances.

BracketBusters was entertaining this weekend but it may have ended up hurting more teams then it helped. VCU's at-large chances took a major blow with the home loss to Bradley. Missouri State no longer has room for error after dropping their BracketBuster game to Winthrop (who they must cheer hard for to get the Big South auto) and Creighton really damaged their profile with a home loss to Drexel. ODU picked up a big road win against Toledo and now look the best for an at-large bid out of the CAA. Drexel has some nice wins on their resume but too many head scratching losses and 4th place out of the CAA will not get an at-large. Bradley picked up its first good OOC win but 0-4 against Missouri State and Creighton really hurt's their chances at a bid. Appalachian State picked up a big win at Wichita State but they also have too many head scratching losses to warrant an at-large bid.

Sunday, February 11, 2007

The BreakdownIt was another upset-filled week in college basketball and because of that, another week which resulted in several changes to our previous projections. The last 10-12 teams considered this week were all very close in terms of resumes, which made us really project ahead to best-case scenarios for each team's conference record. Maryland's win over Duke wasn't all that surprising considering Duke's recent free-fall, but it was extremely important for the Terps' hopes. We had previously said that the best Maryland could do is 7-9 in conference, but that win gives them a halfway-decent shot at 8-8. Two games vs. NC State will help, and if they can split their other four games (tough, but doable), they'll get a bid. Georgia Tech is at 4-6 in conference as well, but their pathetic road history (0-5 this year) and the schedule they have left (@FSU, @ Duke, Wake, @Virginia, UNC, BC) will make it very difficult to get to 7-9 in conference (nevermind 8-8) so we left them out. As it stands right now these two teams would face off in the first round of the ACC tourney and if that holds the winner of that game would likely get the bid.

For all of the bashing its taken this year, the Big Ten might actually have the biggest group of teams on the bubble that have a legit shot at earning a bid. Michigan State dropped out this week and were replaced by an Illinois team that may not have a lot of marquee wins, but has the schedule working in their favor. They have a great shot of winning out (they have Northwestern, Michigan, @ PSU, and @ Iowa left) and finishing 10-6, which would put them in. Purdue barely missed the bracket this week, but they have a great chance at a big win with Indiana coming in this week, and after that have an easy schedule remaining as well. The Big Ten in the end will definitely get four teams in, and if everything works out perfectly, they could get five.

We added Georgia to the bracket once again out of the SEC and removed Arkansas. With the schedule that Georgia has left is tough to see them going worse then 9-7 in conference, which will be enough for a bid. Arkansas suffered a devastating loss at LSU this week to give them their 6th loss out of their last 9 games. They will need to win 5 of their last 6 to get back into the field. Alabama also lost a crucial road game this week at Mississippi (who made their first ever appearance on a Chris and Craig bubble sheet) and their next three game (@Florida, Kentucky, @Tennessee) will determine their fate.

The other notable change is in the Colonial where Old Dominion replaces Hofstra, who we had in for several weeks as the CAA's automatic bid. The Colonial is tough to call right now, but here's how we see it shaping up down the stretch: VCU's loss to ODU was a huge hit to their at-large hopes, and essentially means that they must win out and lose in the conference tourney final to even be considered for an at-large. Our faith in the inconsistent Pride finally came to an end this week, thanks to their loss at home to Drexel. ODU, meanwhile, is on a roll (seven wins in a row) and hosts Hofstra Tuesday in a game they should win. Two teams is not out of the question from the CAA if things break perfectly, but right now we project ODU as the lone bid.

One small conference which we are standing firm on is the WAC, where we still have New Mexico State in as the automatic despite the fact that the Aggies lost a pair of games this week. The decision to still include them may seem ridiculous, but keep in mind that both losses this week were on the road to decent competition. We still believe their perfect home record means something, and with the WAC tourney in their gym, we think the Aggies - not Nevada - will win it. It may seem like a stretch, but mid-major tournies hardly ever go according to plan. If any WAC, Horizon, C-USA, or A-10 team is going to crash the party and steal a bid, we think it'll be New Mexico State.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Back for a third installment, our Questions For The Competition has expanded to include questions for all five of the "expert" bracketologists and, as always, some questions for ourselvesQuestions are based on the latest bracket from each "expert."

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com)How are teams like Gonzaga (10 seed) and Michigan State (11 seed) last four in when you have other at-large bids seeded lower than them?

Does the Big East really deserve two 2 seeds?

Is Xavier (the A-10's second bid) really the last team out of the field? Is the A-10 that close to two bids or are you whimping out and picking the team in first (Rhode Island) when you really think Xavier might be the team to beat?

David Mihm (Bracketography.com)What year did you graduate from Providence?

A 9 seed for USC? They're four seed lines worse than Stanford?

Tennessee and Florida State belong on the same seed line?

What makes you think Georgia Tech will get to .500 in conference with the schedule they have left (@ Florida State, @ Duke, @ Virginia)?

Stewart Mandel (CNNSI.com)We know you did your bracket before Maryland lost to Virginia, but how could you have them in with a 9 seed even then?

How is that Texas Tech 7 seed looking for you?

We may have been loving a little too much on ND last week but after the loss to South Florida we hammered them. You still have them at a 6...why?

Gary Parrish (CBS Sportsline)How jacked up could your projected bracket possibly be? In seeding a bracket, each of the first three teams selected from a conference should be placed in different regions. You have Pitt-Marquette, Southern Illinois-Creighton-Missouri State, and Kansas-Oklahoma State all in the same region. Looks like someone needs the phone number for Matt Reeves.

Washington State a 3 seed? Southern Illinois a 4?

Can we get Mejia back?

Michael Lazarus (FOXSports.com)We know Kentucky has a good RPI, but do they deserve a 3 seed?

More whacked out seeds…WVU a 9, Michigan State a 9, Kansas State an 8??!!

Bracketology 101How's that Oklahoma State 4 seed looking now?

Why do you guys still have Hofstra as the CAA automatic after two head-scratching losses to Northeastern and Delaware, and considering the fact that the conference tournament is in Richmond (VCU's backyard)?

What was that projection you made not too long ago about Notre Dame? A 5-6 seed? Yeah, not so much.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

The BreakdownAs the season goes on, it gets harder and harder to pick the last few teams in the field. We added 5 new at-large teams to the bracket this week and said goodbye to Georgia, Maryland, Syracuse, VCU, and Northern Iowa. We welcomed Alabama, Missouri State, Kansas State, and West Virginia back into the field and added first timers BYU.

BYU followed up their home win against Air Force with a blowout win over UNLV. Their 29 RPI along with the fact that they are tied for first in a solid MWC puts them safely in the field. Alabama took care of business this week and have 5 more games remaining against lowly SEC West foes to build on their gaudy record. Picking up a quality victory along the way will be key for them to drastically improve their seed to match their strong record and RPI. Missouri State took care of business on the road this week (which is never easy in the MVC) to jump back into the field. They have a huge game Saturday @Northern Iowa which they need to pick up since they don't want to get swept in the season series against them. Kansas State made the field because of their 7 game win streak along with their huge win at Texas this week. With the schedule they have left they have a great chance to get at least 10 wins in conference which should be enough for a bid out of the Big 12.

Our last team in the field this week was West Virginia. Their 17-4 record is very superficial since they only have 3 wins over teams in the top 100 of the RPI (UConn and DePaul are 2 of those wins). They have 2 chances this week to pick up huge victories with Pitt and UCLA coming in.Georgia was the toughest team to leave out this week. They had two tough road losses this week to solid teams (Vandy and Tennessee) but at 12-8 it is difficult to include them right now. After a matchup with Florida this week, they have a soft schedule and if they can take care of business in that stretch they will find themselves back in the field. Illinois has picked up some huge home victories in the past two weeks to get them back on the top of the bubble. They will need to pick up some road victories down the stretch (4 out of 6 games remaining on the road) to get into the field. We can't see Maryland getting more then 7 wins in the ACC with their remaining schedule so we can't keep them in the field. VCU's at large hopes took a major blow with their loss at Hofstra this week. They still have an outside chance at an at-large bid if they can win out until the conference tourney.

Now for a few comments on teams still in the field. It's really almost a coin flip to try to pick between Illinois and Michigan State as to who should be the fourth team to come out of the Big 10. They have both beat each other once and have nearly identical RPIs and records. While Michigan State has better OOC wins (BYU and Texas), Illinois has a better win in conference (Indiana). Michigan State has a better chance to pick up a big victory down the stretch so we went with them. We can't figure out Texas Tech. First they win against Texas A&M and Kansas and then they lose three winnable games in a row. Surprisingly, what likely kept them in the bracket this week was their win a few weeks ago at Kansas State.

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