Fair Value Stocks

Friday, 16 February 2018

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a negative note -2.1% at $22.51, but that still resulted
in a net weekly gain of 3.8%. Near term
outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400,
which would
offer hyper
upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, a positive week for the precious metals of gold and silver, and that naturally saw the related mining stocks follow upward. Broadly though, price action remains range bound from early 2017.

For things to turn decisively bullish, GDX >26s, or bearish <$20. The former still looks due, as Gold is awfully close to the key $1400 threshold.
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Two of the most important miners, and very representative of the sector...

Barrick Gold, monthly

Newmont Mining, monthly

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Both are soundly based, and look good for the mid/long term. Clearly, Newmont is technically stronger, having already seen a bullish breakout in January.
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Friday, 9 February 2018

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week u/c at $21.68, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -5.4%. Near term
outlook is offering a bounce. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would
offer hyper
upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX, daily

Summary

Special highlight: 5min...

With the main US market hyper spiking from sp'2532 to settle at 2619, even the gold miners caught a bid, with GDX soaring from $20.83 to settle u/c at $21.68.

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The miners were under major pressure this week, not least via the broader equity market, which saw the most bearish price action in some years. Notably, gold failed to catch any 'fear bid' to offset the main market pressure.

Broadly, the gold miners have just been trading sideways since early 2017. The cautious will just wait for a decisive break >26.00s, which would offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70. The bold would be buying at current levels, but with a super tight trading stop. Any sustained price action <$21.00 would merit alarm bells.

Friday, 2 February 2018

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very negative note, -3.3% at $22.91, resulting in a net weekly decline of -5.9%. Near term outlook is choppy. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper
upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, with gold and silver on the slide, the miners naturally followed.

Much like gold, price action in the miners has been broadly choppy since early 2017. Things would turn decisively bullish >26... or bearish <20. Yours truly is leaning on an eventual upward break.

Special mention: Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Newmont saw a decisive bullish breakout in January, and is indirectly supportive to the notion that the rest of the sector will eventually follow this spring. Broader price structure is a giant bullish pennant, and that was indeed provisionally confirmed with the January close of $40.51.

Thursday, 1 February 2018

US Steel saw good earnings, but still settled lower for a third consecutive day, -2.1% at $36.61. S/t outlook is bearish to the 50dma around $35.00. The m/t outlook is hyper bullish to $60 (with intermediate psy' $50), based on an FPE in the 9s, within a broadly accelerating US/world economy.

Suffice to add, earnings were good, and the outlook is outright superb. With annual EPS set to be around $3.80, that brings the FPE down to the 9s.

Considering the accelerating US/world economy (at least into mid 2019), the outlook for US Steel is very positive.

Technically, the stock did notably fail to break AND hold above multi-year resistance in January. On balance, it should manage this in Feb' or March. Any monthly close >$40 will offer a grander run to (at least $60) within 9-18 months.

The hyper bulls (sp'4-5K) could start to target 100/115 in late 2019/2020.

Wednesday, 31 January 2018

The gold miners ended the month on a positive note, with the ETF of GDX settling +1.3% at $23.75, which made for a net monthly gain of 2.2%. Price action since early 2017 has been broad chop. Things only turn decisively bullish with the 26s, or bearish <20.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add... I'm leaning to the broader bullish commodity outlook. Copper and WTIC are leading the way higher, and I see Gold and Silver (eventually) following upward.

If correct, we should see GDX break >$26.00, by late spring/early summer. From there, its technical empty air to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

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I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.