Florida politics, policy, and plain-spoken analysis by Gary Fineout.

Bill McCollum

April 08, 2018

Florida Gov. Rick Scott's image and his name and videos disappeared from the Let's Get to Work website. (The photo on the right was taken last Thursday.)

Consider his disappearance just another sure sign of his expected jump into the race for U.S. Senate against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. Scott is planning to make a "major" and "big" announcement about his political future on Monday in Orlando.

Scott first started Let's Get to Work in the heat of the 2010 campaign for governor as an electioneering communication organization amid potential fears that the governor's self-funded campaign would bust a spending cap that could result in Republican primary opponent Bill McCollum getting a dollar-for-dollar match from public financing. Scott sued in federal court and eventually won an important ruling that declared the spending cap law unconstitutional. But the organization remained in play that whole campaign season.

After ECOs as they were known were eliminated by the Legislature, Let's Get to Work became a political committee that then assisted Scott's re-election. But even after he won a second term, the committee paid for television ads meant to push Scott's agenda through a sometimes recalcitrant GOP-controlled Legislature.

But the problem with the committee for Scott is that it relied on large corporate donations, taking checks in from various groups whose business can be affected by Scott and the Legislature. (U.S. Sugar, for example, gave more than $600,000 over a three-year period. Private prison providers, health care providers, utilities, business associations are among the long list of those who gave money.)

So in order to remain complaint under federal election law while he runs for U.S. Senate Scott needed to distance himself from his creation. Hence the makeover of the website this weekend.

It was already clear that the end was coming. Donations stop flowing into the political committee in the last few months. Records _ including those were self-reported by the committee _ show that at this point that Let's Get to Work has less than $200,000 in its bank accounts. The committee has spent more than $57 million since March 2014.

While Scott's name and image have vanished from the website, it now states that "Let’s Get to Work is supported by Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Its chairman, Abby Dupree, is also associated with this organization."

This was apparently news to Lopez-Cantera, who Scott appointed in January 2014 right ahead of his re-election campaign.

Brian Swensen, who served as campaign manager for Lopez-Cantera's U.S. Senate bid in 2016, said neither he or Lopez-Cantera were aware that the LG was still being associated with Let's Get to Work.

Now while the official Let's Get to Work website has been wiped the videos and ads that the committee did on behalf of Scott still remain on YouTube.

(UPDATE: Matt Dixon with Politico Florida reported on Sunday night that the New Republican Super PAC has also removed all references to Scott. Scott became chairman of the group last year, but he has to sever his connections to the organization once he becomes a federal candidate.)

July 17, 2016

Despite that fact that many of the state's 99 Florida delegates supported other candidates ahead of the primaries none of them have been wishing out loud that someone else besides DonaldTrump was the presumptive GOP nominee. No talk of blocking delegates from attending or lawsuits.

Yet while the delegation will certainly follow the rules and give all 99 Florida votes to Trump a lot of questions remain about the state of the party and the fact that top Republicans in the state are divided into factions.

There's a whole long list of things to consider (including the fact that former Gov. Jeb Bushand his staunchest supporters aren't on board with Trump) but let's just start with the strange situation with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate after incumbent U.S. Sen.Marco Rubio went back on his oft-repeated promise to not to run for election.

Most of the other GOP candidates jumped out once Rubio changed his mind. But Manatee County homebuilder and political newcomer Carlos Beruff didn't. And that was just fine with GOP governor Rick Scott, who came close to endorsing Beruff over Rubio (seen here campaigning for Scott's re-election.) (Also worth noting: Rubio has not been endorsed by Florida Attorney GeneralPam Bondi, who has a speaking slot at the convention.)

Yet at the same time - Scott's own lieutenant governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera is now actively campaigning for his good friend Rubio and against Beruff.

Adding to this mix was the suggestion - although knocked down by the Beruff campaign - that maybe, just maybe Beruff was staying in the race against Rubio not to win - but to build his name recognition in a possible bid for governor in 2018.

Scott, talking to one of his former top aides, even chimed in and said that "my experience with Carlos is, whatever he puts his mind to, he’s going to be successful. Whether that’s trying to make sure his customers get what they want, or anything else, Carlos will be successful.”

For those not completely immersed in inside Capitol Circle talk - that's a shot at the presumed campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. The icy relationship between Putnam and Scott goes back years. You can bet there are people whispering to Putnam that he needs to be prepared so that he isn't "McCollumed" - a reference to the fact that then Attorney General Bill McCullom was considered a shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010 until Scott jumped in at the last minute and self-funded his campaign.

Then there's the whole money thing for all Republicans.

Despite having no announced plans beyond 2018, Scott keeps raising money for his Let's Get to Work political committee and not the Republican Party of Florida as part of the continued fallout after Ingoglia won the chairmanship back in early 2015 over Scott's own handpicked candidate.

Scott has raised more than $1.8 million so far this year for his committee of which he transferred $95,000 back in January to the party. Yes there's a persistent rumor that Scott may run for U.S. Senate, but it's important to point out under campaign finance laws that Scott can't directly use this money - which is from corporate donations - for a federal race.

Now it's true that the Republican National Committee has put in money into the state that has been used to hire ground staff, but what message does it send to donors and others that the state's leading Republican isn't helping out his own party that much?

Lots of political insiders in Tallahassee keep grumbling about the situation and grumbling whether or not Scott's recalcitrance is diverting resources that could at least pay for certain types of party expenses. And remember the Beruff situation? That could increase pressure on Putnam to raise more money for his political committee. (Putnam did give the state party a $25,000 check in June.)

Of course none of this is totally surprising given the awkward relationship Scott has had since he knocked off McCollum even though the veteran politician had support from many establishment Republicans. In the background are GOP consultants with competing agendas and competing candidates ahead of the 2018 elections.

Maybe it's not a big problem.

After all Florida's Democrats continue to have their own history of problems come election time and the rise-and-fall of presidential campaigns has usually been more dependent on the the actual campaigns and not the state party. (There's still bad blood between state operatives and the campaign of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney as state people contended Romney's folks ignored their advice ahead of a narrow loss to President Barack Obama.)

But after close to 20 years of GOP domination it's still out of character to see so many fault lines and shifting loyalties.

Add it all up and it could matter in a swing state where only a few thousand - or few hundred ballots - can make a difference in the leader of the free world.

December 30, 2015

It's always been an open secret that Florida Gov. Rick Scott sticks to a script when he talks in public, especially when he occasionally answers questions from the press.

A reminder of that came recently when his office posted copies of what it calls "Driving Message" in response to a public records request by Tampa Bay Times reporter Steve Bousquet.

The information from October and November is essentially a rolling set of questions on topics/news of the day that includes the answer that Scott is supposed to be given when asked. The responses cover everything from campus carry gun legislation to what he thinks about GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and why he's opposed to raising the minimum wage. ("Increasing the minimum wage will result in losing jobs.")

And the answers included in the documents are exactly what Scott has said about the various topics, whether it's a question about suspending school grades or the handling of Syrian refugees by federal government.

The talking points also give a small amount of insight about how Scott may handle issues in the near future.

The remarks, for instance, say he's not endorsing any GOP candidates for president "today" but they include praise for Trump despite the criticism aimed at the businessman from fellow GOP candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

"I think people in Washington are trying to figure out why Trump is doing so well, but the reality is he is saying what he thinks. He is not being politically correct. I think a lot of people find that refreshing," state Scott's talking points.

Coupled with other things he has said about Trump _ and the fact that some of his own key supporters/campaign people are now working for him _ it would be plausible for Scott to endorse him ahead of the March GOP primary in Florida. (Although Scott has generally avoided getting involved in primaries given his own bitter, divisive primary for governor back in 2010 when he ran against establishment-backed candidate Bill McCollum.)

The answers included in the document regarding a bill that would allow concealed weapon holders to bring their guns on university campuses suggests that the Scott administration may have some doubts about the legislation. ("I am not sure there is a silver bullet solution, but college should be a safe place students go to learn, not a place of violence.")

But the main question is whether Scott and his team will revise this script as they head into 2016 and a session that starts in less than two weeks.

His talking points on tax cuts, hospital transparency, the proposed deal with the Seminole Tribe of Florida, and Enterprise Florida reforms don't fully explain Scott's logic. In other words, how exactly will Scott sell this?

Despite a contentious 2015 session that saw the GOP-controlled Legislature pare back, or ignore completely, many of his recommendations, Scott actually is pushing ahead with a more detailed agenda this upcoming session than he has during the last few years. And that creates plenty of potential flashpoints in the weeks and months ahead.

There's no doubt that his $1 billion tax cut package and his request of $250 million for business incentives are his top priorities as Scott makes a case to diversify the state's economy. He will make the argument in January - during a tour to emphasize job growth under his watch - that the state's economic recovery will not hold if more isn't done.

The problem for Scott and his team is that there is a wide divide in the House and Senate (which has been unable to agree on many top issues in the past year) on the right approach of so many of the items on Scott's 2016 checklist.

Gambling? It's not clear that there's enough votes in the Senate for the $3 billion deal proposed by Scott that would give craps and roulette to the Seminoles. But the House may not go along with the deal unless it includes a constitutional amendment that bars any future expansion. Senate President Andy Gardiner has said he's not sure there's enough votes in the Senate to pass such an amendment.

Business incentives? While the House and Senate may be willing to endorse Scott's "reforms" in regards to process, the idea of placing such a large amount of money in the governor's hands is viewed suspiciously by some House conservatives who consider incentives an intrusion into the marketplace.

Tax cuts? The amount is a hard goal to reach without making cuts elsewhere in the budget - which is something that legislators about to hit the campaign trail don't want hanging over their head. Another complication is that there is growing resistance to the reliance on increased local property taxes to help pay for school funding. House and Senate leaders say they like "tax cuts," but there is also divergence on whether those cuts should be more directed at individuals, not companies as Scott has largely proposed.

Hospital transparency? Scott's ongoing efforts to go after Florida's hospitals - including a price cap - includes some proposals that may strike some conservatives as intrusive government regulation not a free-market solution. House leaders have been pushing policies that they say will open up health care to more competition, while top Senate Republicans seem to have little interest in any of the ideas.

Scott, of course, has his veto pen as the ultimate bargaining tool as he deals with recalcitrant legislators.

The decision of Jesse Panuccioto resign from his job as the head of the Department of Economic Opportunity rather than confront a messy confirmation battle removed one potential point of leverage for the Florida Senate. But there are other agency heads whose adherence to Scott's agenda and seeming resistance to legislative instructions may make it difficult for them to survive what could be a messy session.

If the Legislature were in fact able to put together a budget quickly and present it to Scott before the end of the 60-day session, it would create a conundrum for the governor. He would be forced to act on legislative budget priorities within 7 days which would give lawmakers the ability to decide whether to approve some of Scott's top priorities based on how he handled the budget.

Another problem for Scott is that the consuming lobbying frenzy over the compact with the Seminole Tribe may distract legislators as they try to cobble together enough votes to pass something. (One possible solution is to have lawmakers pass the main compact, with the promise they will pass bills in 2017 to deal with other parts of the gambling industry.)

As all of this unfolds during the next two months, the question is whether Scott and his team will provide new answers, new insights and new arguments to counter the pushback that the governor is going to likely encounter.

Or will Scott stick to his oft-repeated line that he used time and time again where he will say that he expects the Legislature to "do the right thing" and vote exactly how he wants them to without explaining how, or why legislators should do that.

Maybe that will be the "driving message" that needs to be answered later in 2016.

"We do not need an unstable man, we need a man of leadership,'' Bramnick said.

That was the intro the prayer and during the prayer Bramnick made his thoughts on the upcoming election even more clearer.

"Father we decree and declare that you have anointed and appointed Gov. Rick Scott for this hour to lead this great state of Florida,'' Bramnick said. "Father we pray that you expose the schemes and lies and deceptions of the enemy. Let God arise and our enemies be scattered. Let your kingdom come and your will be done Nov. 4."

In just a few short words Bramnick may have summed up - at least to those directly involved - what the race between Crist and Scott had become. Schemes, lies, deceptions and yes, enemies.

This was not a governor's race, say like in 2002 between Gov. Jeb Bush and Bill McBride, that revolved around such mundane discussions as school funding and reducing class size. Or even the previous 2006 general election between Crist and Democrat Jim Davis that was consumed by property taxes, insurance and whether or not Davis spent enough time in Washington D.C. (the subject of negative ads run by Crist.)

And yes, with Scott's past as the CEO of a company embroiled in Medicare fraud the 2010 elections were heated in both the GOP primary and the general election.

But that race almost seems quaint compared to this one. (Well, although that race featured Scott calling primary opponent Bill McCollum the "Tonya Harding of Florida politics" duing a press conference where Scott got served with a subpoena.)

But despite Democrat Alex Sink's repeated attempts to question Scott's character due to his role with HCA/Columbia much of the race four years ago was in Scott's own words about "jobs, jobs, jobs."

Scott had a bold plan - the 7-7-7 plan - that spelled out how he would return Florida's economy to good health by a mix of tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and sizable cuts in government spending. In return, he predicted jobs would be forthcoming. Sink did have her own economic plan, but it was Scott's plan - and how it would work - that became one of the centerpieces of that campaign.

This time around there was no bold plans announced to anchor the campaigns.

Scott rolled out policy initiatives largely tied to next year's budget and he promised to bolster funding of the environment and schools. Crist's plans were even less intricate and centered on restoring education funding, equal pay for women and raising the minimum wage.

The main questions in 2014 aren't centered not around ideas, but basically, around character and trust:

Does Florida give Crist another chance even though he left in 2010 when the economy was souring? Or does Florida stick with Scott due to his handling of the economy even though a majority of the electorate doesn't really like him? Can you trust Crist because he supports President Barack Obama and Obamacare? Can you trust Rick Scott to not cut education funding again? And on and on on.

And maybe that's why the race has never broken wide for either candidate because they each spent months arguing about their pasts.

Through the debates and television ads and rallies the race turned bitter, personal and expensive. Crist is corrupt and surrounds himself with corrupt pals was the narrative of several GOP ads. Scott by contrast is "shady" and deceptive from his days with HCA/Columbia to his stint as governor. Fact-checks by many news organizations, including The Associated Press and Politifact, have roundly questioned the assertions made in many of the ads.

The debates probably didn't help that much because the defining moment wound up being Scott's absence from the start of the second one, a incident immortalized in the words of "fangate." Scott maintained he didn't come on stage because he thought Crist was going to boycott the debate because he wasn't supposed to have his fan. If Scott loses the race, there will be those tempted to point to that moment as when he lost the race.

Polls of course show that the steady barrage produced a predictable result: Neither candidate is liked by a majority of voters.

The last Quinnipiac University poll on the eve of the election found just 43 percent had a favorable rating of Crist and only 42 percent gave a favorable rating to Scott.

On the eve of the election, Scott boldly predicted that his campaign would "kick Charlie's rear" because he is providing a "clear choice" to voters about whether they want to pick someone who will help their families.

But unscientific Interviews with voters over the last few days have shown that many of them are voting for the person they find least objectionable.

They want the person who can help the economy. Or they want the person they think is more likely to help them. Some of these voters appear ready to look past Crist's shift from Republican to Democrat, or Scott's decision to jettison some of the tea party elements of his 2010 agenda.

During raucous events held during the final at The Villages and at a Harley Davidson dealership in Orlando, Texas Gov. Rick Perry asserted that Florida's election was really a "national election" that will answer questions about which direction that country moves in the next few years.

"Over the course of the next 24 hours I would suggest the future of America is in balance and Florida is the epicenter of that,'' Perry said.

Well, it's clear that national political figures with potential presidential aspirations such as Perry, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Vice President Joe Biden have come to Florida and have pitched in.

And outside groups such as NextGen Climate, with its links to a California billionaire environmentalist, have made a significant impact in the race as well.

But what's interesting is that despite having what has been billed as the most expensive race in the country the clash between Crist and Scott in such a key swing state has not attracted quite the national media firestorm that one could have expected months ago.

Instead much of the focus in the closing days appears to have been concentrated on the prospect of the Republicans seizing the U.S. Senate.

So where does that leave us?

Is this a battle between good and evil as even some associates of Scott have maintained?

Or is this merely an election between two damaged and flawed candidates?

If Crist wins, there will be finger-pointing at how the Scott campaign was run. Did Scott abandon the narrative that helped him in 2010?

If Scott wins, the Crist people will say they couldn't defeat a candidate withs uch a distinct cash advantage including the nearly $13 million Scott put in at the close. And there will be Democrats who will say 'I told you so' and complain that they should have pushed U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson harder to jump into the contest.

October 15, 2014

Charlie Crist and Rick Scott will head into their second debate on Wednesday night, hoping to create some momentum in what appears to be an ever so tight race for governor.

What might get lost in the back-and-forth and barbs about fraud, Scott Rothstein, and HCA/Columbia is how each governor is prepared to deal with the political future and reality that will exist no matter which one of them wins.

And that reality is that the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature will have a lot to say on how the next four years go...for both candidates.

The fault lines will be obvious for Crist.

He has already said he's ready to issue an executive order to try to carry out Medicaid expansion if the Legislature remains recalcitrant to the idea as it has the last two years.

This is actually not a new tactic for Crist. He has done this before, on issues like voting, where he has dared the Legislature to sue him on issues he knows enjoy some level of popularity. In the past, state legislators were hesitant to do this (save then-House Speaker Marco Rubio's challenge to a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.)

But you can rest assured that on Medicaid expansion the legal challenge - at least from the House (where one of the chief expansion opponents is Speaker-in-waiting Richard Corcoran) - will come quickly.

Crist has already said several times that he thinks he can work with the Legislature because he will "have a pen." That threat, however, would be rendered useless if Republicans gain a veto-proof majority as some polls are suggesting. You can bet a Legislature chagrined by the prospect of a Crist governorship will not hesitate to challenge Crist at every opportunity.

A Crist governorship could be a bonanza for political and policy reporters who would get to witness an endless game of brinkmanship as it happened at times under Florida's last Democratic governor Lawton Chiles. Just think of the joys of a possible mid-summer session to craft a final budget deal in order to keep state government running. (And a wonderful side debate of who constitutes a "essential" or "non-essential" state employee.)

Except Crist might not be the only one who could be at odds with legislative leaders.

The plain fact is that when talked to privately many GOP legislators continue to have discomfort with Scott four years after he knocked off GOP establishment favorite BIll McCollum and contended on primary night that the Tallahassee insiders would be "crying in their cocktails." Scott has an uneasy alliance with many Republican heavy-weights in the state who have remained quiet as he brought in outsiders - many of them connected to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal - to run the Republican Party of Florida.

Let's look at the facts of his four years in office. It really wasn't until this year - when he was down in the polls against Crist - that the Legislature pivoted from three years of a respectful, yet standoffish at times relationship, to giving way to help carry out Scott's top priorities.

Many of Scott's top priorities from his 2010 election - such as a massive cut in the state's corporate income tax - were politely rejected by the Legislature.

Want a more recent example? Just look at the decision by Scott to have Lopez-Cantera and Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth gauge support for a potential new deal with the Seminoles. As reported recently by The Associated Press, the goal of this deal was come up with one that outshined the one that Crist approved and get more money for the state. But the deal was a tough sell especially since it would require yes votes from Democrats in order to pass and was opposed by the state's pari-mutuels and those supporting Las Vegas-styled casinos. The entire effort quickly collapsed.

That's not to say there won't be a lot more common ground between Scott and members of his own party than between them and Crist.

But many of the Tallahassee insiders who Scott predicted would be crying now fully expect the Legislature to be the place where the real action - and real power - will lie during the next four years. That's more likely since Scott's power over legislators will wane as his second term goes on. Even as powerful as he was then-Gov. Jeb Bush got into a lot more rows with the Legislature after his re-election.

And how much currency with Scott bring with him if he barely defeats Crist in the same fashion where he barely defeated Alex Sink in 2010?

Scott's platform this time around has been a lot less bolder than it was in 2010. He has mostly crafted it around ideas like increasing spending on environment and education. Scott has promised to continue to grow the economy, but there's no 7-7-7 plan this time around with a sweeping promise to create 700,000 (or 1.7 million jobs) by cutting billions in taxes and spending.

What ultimately might be more important are the platforms of Corcoran, soon to be House Speaker Rep. Steve Crisafulli, Incoming Senate President Andy Gardiner, Sen. Bill Galvano (and the yet to be crowned Senate president for the 2017-18 time period.) Or it could even be the platforms of the NEXT potential Republican governor - Adam Putnam or Jeff Atwater.

August 31, 2012

Here's a few reflections and quick takeaways on what the first convention held in Florida since 1972 means for the state.

1. Enjoy the feeling Floridians. Given the close brush near the convention by Hurricane Isaac, one has to wonder when Florida will get the chance to host another convention. While the convention went off without any large scale problems the fact that the storm forced planners to cancel a day of events may leave future party leaders skeptical about a return to the Sunshine State.

2. Does the convention propel Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn into the conversation about Democrats who could run statewide? Buckhorn made the most out of being the chief ambassador for the region and he seemed to bask in the limelight that came with it. The fact that the convention was not marred by the serious protests and arrests that have occurred at other conventions could also help his reputation.

3. Did Hurricane Isaac help Gov. Rick Scott's image? Scott's decision to bypass convention events until the final night and instead focus on the state's response to Isaac brought praise from people like Buckhorn and Republicans such as Jeb Bush.

"It was smart of Gov. Scott to do his job of preparation and response,'' Bush said.

Bush is one person who knows that successfully handling hurricanes can help one's image. When he left office Bush remained immensely popular despite pushing policies that did not always poll well with voters. That popularity was due in part to the serious and organized way he dealt with the eight hurricanes that hit the state in 2004 and 2005.

Some commentators found the presentation confusing and stilted, but it may be more important to note that this might be the last hurrah for Bondi on this issue. Florida's court case is now over. And it will be up to voters to decide whether or not the federal care overhaul should be repealed or kept in place since Romney has vowed to eliminate it if he gets in office.

Bondi made the health care lawsuit her primary focus during her first two years in office. While she has also gone after prescription drug abuse, it seems that there could be a bit of vacuum for Bondi now that the health care lawsuit is finished.

Bondi, for example, has not adopted the same populist outlook that characterized previous AG's such as Charlie Crist and Bob Butterworth. Both Crist and former Attorney General Bill McCollum battled utility companies over rate hikes but Bondi so far has chosen to "monitor" rate hike proposals and not fight them.

5. The convention only enhanced both the reputations of Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

Rubio's speech introducing Romney touched on many of the same themes he pushed during his 2010 campaign, including American exceptionalism and how his own biography is a manifestation of the American dream.

Where Rubio goes from here remains to be seen. We still don't know if how he would stand up to a constant vettting by the national press. Stories about Rubio's finances that were written by the Florida media would likely resurface in a much more specatcular fashion if he were to run for President.

As for Bush a run for national office is there if he wants it. Some speculate that Bush will stay on the sidelines and allow a younger generation to step forward. Maybe. But judging from the way he was treated at the convention he would become an immediate frontrunner for 2016 if Romney were to lose.

March 28, 2012

Gov. Rick Scott on Wednesday will sign several bills that consist of the "jobs agenda" that he outlined last fall.

And that's when it will start to get interesting.

There have been few surprises so far since the 2012 session ended. Scott signed the "inspirational messages" bill and this latest batch of legislation includes an overhaul of the unemployment compensation system and tax breaks, including another small cut of the state's corporate income tax.

But in the next few weeks Scott will sort out the remaining bills from this year and figure out whether or not he plans to go along with many of the ideas that his GOP colleagues in the Legislature acted on.

Not counting his budget vetoes, Scott last year vetoed 10 bills sent to him by state lawmakers, which is actually on par, or even a little bit below other governors in recent years.

Gov. Charlie Crist - who was at war with lawmakers during his independent bid for U.S. Senate in 2010 - vetoed 17 bills his final year in office (several of which were later overridden) and 18 bills in 2007. Back in 2005 then Gov. Jeb Bush a.k.a. "Veto Corleone" nixed some 36 bills sent to him by the Legislature.

It was Bush who told Scott in an email before he became governor that it was okay to veto "stupid bills."

Here then are some bills to watch Scott on in the next few days and weeks:

HB 5301: Back when Scott was campaigning against Bill McCollum in the GOP primary in 2010 he actually came out against what he called mandates being imposed on local governments. Scott told a group of business leaders in Panama City that he did not support strict limits on spending and taxes for local governments, saying at the time "I believe that what Tallahassee should be doing is dealing with Tallahassee issues."

But sitting on his desk is a budget conforming bill that contains a contentious provision that withholds money from counties in an effort to collect $325 million in contested past-due Medicaid billings. County governments have argued this is yet another mandate, an argument that should have some resonance with Scott.

This legislation, however, includes several other changes, including a limit on how many times Medicaid will pay for hospital emergency room visits for non-pregnant adults and a provision that would allow the children of state employees to be enrolled in the state's subsidized KidCare program. Scott must act on this bill this week but there are signs that he will let it become law because it is tied to the state budget. (UPDATE: Scott signed the bill, although in a letter the governor tried to assuage counties that the state would "work diligently" to make sure that all the billings are valid and accurate. Counties, meanwhile, sharply criticized the decision as a "body blow" to taxpayers.)

HB 7129: This is the tuition bill for the University of Florida and Florida State University. If it becomes law the legislation would allow these two research universities to raise tuition annually above the existing 15 percent cap that now exists in state law. The logic behind the bill - which was a top priority for House Speaker Dean Cannon - is to give UF and FSU the financial resources to make themselves more nationally competitive. But the bill also clashes with Scott's oft-repeated line that tuition should not go up this year and that universities ought to give him more examples of spending existing money wisely before hiking tuition. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed this legislation saying it would increase the debt burden of students.

SB 1994: The Florida Polytechnic University bill. This is the legislation pushed by Sen. J.D. Alexander that would officially divorce the Lakeland branch campus of the University of South Florida and turn into the state's 12th public university. Scott so far has refused to take a stance on the creation of a new school, but has expressed skepticism about it. The problem for Scott, however, is if vetoes the bill then he wipes out $16 million in funding, including $6 million for the USF College of Pharmacy and $10 million to allow current USF Polytechnic students to complete their degrees at USF. (UPDATE: In a bit of surprise, Scott signed this legislation into law.)

HB 7117: This is an energy bill that was championed by Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. But the legislation - which includes $16 million in renewable energy tax credits - has come under fire by several different groups, including conservative organizations as well as the Florida Renewable Energy Producers Association. Scott during his first two years in office has continued to be skeptical about energy issues, although his main objection has centered around proposals that would raise utility bills in order to pay for renewable energy. (UPDATE: Scott signed this law although he expressed concerned about some of the provisions.)

HB 5011: State Information Technology. For most people outside of Tallahassee, this bill means little. But it's a big deal for the lobbyists and others who make a living off the millions spent by the state on technology. This bill blows up an existing state agency - the Agency for Enterprise Information Technology - and creates a new agency called the Agency for State Technology which reports to the governor and Cabinet. For those who aren't keeping count this would be the third reconfiguration of how the state handles technology issues in the last decade. The legislation also halts and repeals an already begun process to consolidate the state's email service. Rep. Denise Grimsley, the House budget chief, defended the move to get rid of the email consolidation, contending it would wind up costing the state more than anticipated. But it's worth pointing out that Scott himself early on wondered aloud why state government had multiple email accounts as opposed to the way that most businesses handle it. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed the bill.)

HB 945: Broadband Internet Service. This is another bill that not a lot of people kept an eye on. It transfers a federal stimulus-backed program from one state agency to another. But the legislation was pushed into law at the urging of lobbyists who work for a vendor that held a state contract that was not renewed. The Associated Press already reported that the legislative proposal was so closely aligned with the lobbying firm of former Republican Party of Florida chairman Al Cardenas that the Senate bill sponsor referred questions about the bill to a lobbyist working for Cardenas. That same AP story pointed out that the state agency now in control of the program has warned internally that the transfer will require federal approval and could put millions in federal grants in jeopardy. (UPDATE: This bill was signed by the governor.)

HB 937: Legal notices. Just consider this one a bit of a hunch. Scott of course famously shunned newspaper editorial boards during his 2010 campaign for governor. But since that time he has actually taken a keen interest in the news industry, including recent business moves in Florida such as the decision by Halifax Media to acquire papers owned by the New York Times Company. This legislation is aimed at ending a few years of battle over the future of legal notices. The bill requires the online listing of legal notices for no extra charge, but also keeps them in printed newspapers. In previous years legislators had tried to end the use of printed legal notices completely. The final product is supported by the Florida Press Association so it will be interesting to see how the governor responds.

January 31, 2012

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

January 14, 2011

Here's what Gov. Rick Scott said last summer when it comes to the federal stimulus:

"It's not free money,'' Scott told reporters during a campaign bus trip across North Florida.

Scott, who was then a candidate running against Attorney General Bill McCollum, also said at that time that he would not have balanced the state budget with any money from the controversial federal stimulus package.

"I would have figured out how to balance the budget without it," Scott said. "We have to live within our means, governments have to live within their means. There’s a day of reckoning."

Scott also said then that "stimulus spending didn't help us."

Let's flash forward to now. Scott last week signed a sweeping executive order that froze new rules - and suspended for up to 90 days any contract that is worth more than $1 million.

None of the contracts can go forward until the newly created Office of Fiscal Accountability and Regulatory Reform reviews them. Some of the contracts - including a $450 million sole source contract with Bank of America - have been approved. The Scott administration has also let loose nearly $90 million worth of road-building projects.

But some of the road projects - and just as importantly - some of the pending contracts were funded with federal stimulus dollars.

Example: Scott has held up nearly $117 million worth of contracts that would take stimulus money and give it local groups around the state in order to do weatherization grants for low-income families. This is stimulus money that is intended to be used to help people lower their utility bills while also helping create jobs. The contracts now held up would go to organizations stretching across the state from Miami-Dade County to Orange County to Northeast Florida to Bay County. This program came under a little bit of scrutiny as some wondered why stimulus money was going to help people lower air-conditioning bills instead of helping their homes withstand winter weather. But information provided to Scott's office contends that the weatherization grants have created or saved 800 jobs as of the final quarter of 2010.

When asked about Scott's past comments regarding the stimulus, Brian Burgess, a spokesman for the governor said in an e-mail that this does not mean that the governor would halt the pending contracts. He said that the governor "thought it was wrong to use federal stimulus dollars (i.e. one time cash grants) to balance the state budget."

UPDATE: The Scott administration on early Friday evening announced it had approved a whole long list of contracts, including the contracts for weatherization grants that were funded with federal stimulus dollars.

January 07, 2011

A federal judge has refused to end a lawsuit that then-candidate Rick Scott used to block a key part of Florida’s public campaign finance system.

Scott last summer won a preliminary injunction from a federal appeals court that said the state could not give GOP rival Bill McCollum a dollar-for-dollar match of taxpayer money if Scott spent more than $24.9 million on his campaign.

The ruling was a blow to McCollum’s campaign who could not compete with Scott’s financial edge. Scott won the primary and then went on to spend roughly $73 million to win the governor’s race.

After Scott won the primary, his lawyers and lawyers for the Department of State asked a Tallahassee federal judge for a permanent injunction against the matching money provision.

But U.S. Judge Robert Hinkle in December shot down the request and instead put a hold on the lawsuit while the U.S. Supreme Court decides campaign finance cases from other states.

Hinkle noted that then interim Secretary of State Dawn Roberts had changed her position to fit the viewpoint of Scott.

“There is every reason to believe her change of heart was prompted solely by a good faith analysis of the evolving law in this area,” wrote Hinkle, noting the appeals court injunction. “But it is also true Ms. Roberts’ new position accords with that of the plaintiff – her soon to be new boss. The circumstances raise an issue, at least, over whether the court should act at all, and whether, if the court is going to act, the state’s interest in defending the statute should have independent representation.”

Republicans wanted to end the state’s public finance system entirely, but the amendment that would have removed it from the Florida Constitution was defeated by voters.

Taxpayers wound up spending more than $5.82 million on campaigns in 2010.That amount could have been higher but the combination of the ruling in the Scott case - as well as Alex Sink's decision to decline any public money kept down the overall total.