Reynolds' departure leaves GOP reeling

In his old role as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Rep. Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) often cajoled wavering Republicans into running for reelection. Back home in his district Thursday afternoon, Reynolds announced that he won’t be running again himself.

Consider it a sign of how the House GOP views its prospects for November.

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Having just lost 30 seats and their majority power, Republicans in the House started 2007 thinking that their political fortunes couldn’t get much worse.

The more optimistic thinking went like this: Democrats who had won seats in solidly conservative districts in 2006 would have to defend those seats in 2008, when they’d likely be saddled with Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democrats’ presidential nominee.

The GOP would have a long list of potential targets and, with only eight Republicans representing seats in districts that John F. Kerry won in 2004, a relatively short list of vulnerable members to protect. And the ethical problems that proved so damaging to the party in 2006 would be distant memories by the time voters went to the polls the next time around.

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A sizable wave of retirements, a significant financial disadvantage, a brewing accounting scandal and recruiting woes in some of the nation’s most heavily Republican districts have left a party once poised to play offense struggling to break even instead. Republicans now face a serious risk that they’ll lose more House seats to the Democrats in November. Among those seats is the one Reynolds is vacating.

While sympathizing with Reynolds’ plight — “the last few years have not been for fun for him” — a GOP operative said Thursday that the former NRCC chairman’s retirement will only make matters worse for a party that’s already reeling. “It will further depress an already-dejected House GOP conference,” the operative said. “Twenty-nine [retirements] and counting, and some great members and exceptional minds are among that number.”

In one sense, the problems that have faced Reynolds are specific to him. He was involved in the Republican leadership’s stumbling response to the Mark Foley scandal in 2006, and he was the chairman of the NRCC when the committee named as its treasurer Christopher J. Ward, who allegedly embezzled several hundred thousand dollars from the NRCC and possibly more from other committees.

But Reynolds has been involved in most major events surrounding the House Republicans’ political standing in recent years, and his personal political fortunes have mirrored his party’s prospects ever since his quick rise into leadership. And he isn’t the only House Republican touched by ethical concerns.