Who Are the Breakout Stars in 2017?

Part of the offseason discussions about Pitt football – the fun part – is speculating about what will happen next year. A big part of that is looking at the players we lose to graduation and who is still onboard, or is in the recruiting pipeline, who may fleet up and become starters.

We are losing players who have given Pitt some great play over their careers – guys like Nate Peterman at QB; RB James Conner, OLs Adam Bisnowaty and Dorian Johnson just to name a few on the offensive side of the ball.

On defense DE Ejuan Price and his sacks will be gone. Shakir Soto is leaving along with starting LBs Matt Galambos, Mike Caprara and Bam Bradley… and others also.

So what happens when that happens? Well, the beauty of college football is that there is a starter’s revolving door that lets newcomers in at the same time old timers go out. A great thing that happens each year is that kids who haven’t been in the media eye much rise up to not only do their job but sometimes do it extremely and surprisingly well.

Others are players who have been on the roster for sometime but have big question marks next to their name because there is doubt they will live up to expectations. And expectations are funny things. Most are reasonable but sometimes what fans expect bleeds over to a player being hyped up to heights that they just can’t meet.

A good example of a player that had that question mark beside his name was WR Jester Weah who was a JR last season and had been on the roster for three years but couldn’t bring his practice excellence to the playing field. We who had watch him in practices and scrimmages knew he was extremely skilled – but what surprised us this year was that he almost single-highhandedly made us forget we didn’t have Tyler Boyd this season.

That my fellow fans is a true “breakout season” for a player to have.

So who do you think will be the surprise stars of 2017 on offense? We can share ours by position, by unit or anyway you’d like. I’ll go first and we’ll take a look at the defense in a day or two.

On offense I like rsJR RB Qadree Ollison if he stays on the roster. I can’t think of a better way to stabilize an offense in transition then having a big back with speed getting the ball on a regular basis. Maybe, if the staff decides to play him, it would be more like a ‘re-breakout year’ for him as he certainly established his bona fides in 2015.

Personally I don’t hold much stock in either Darrin Hall or Chawntez Moss to be solid and constant producers at RB next season. And I don’t see stardom from them either. We may see them do it but I want the established Ollison to rebound from being exiled to Elba with Napoleon and show us, again, how well he plays running back when given steady work.

(I have an article in draft form that breaks down our 2016 running game for publication tomorrow morning…some real unexpected info there.)

We may see a surprise in our TE play also especially if the new OC, whoever that may be, starts off playing it safe in the passing game due to a new QB in place. The question is which TE on the roster would be the guy at the receiving end of those passes?

Pitt fans seem to love new Pitt player rsSO TE Chris Clark -a transfer in from UCLA , a place he landed at after some false starts. He lasted one game at UCLA and had an interesting relationship with then-HC Jim Mora.

But since then he sat out a year then came to Pitt and went on the injured list for all of 2016. Two years to think about life sometimes matures young men and let’s hope this is the case with Clark because apparently he’s talented.

Rated the nation’s No. 1 tight end by Rivals and Scout as a senior at Avon Old Farms and had more than 40 scholarship offers…averaged 19.4 yards per catch his senior year with 32 receptions for 621 yards and seven touchdowns…had 33 catches for 417 yards (12.6 avg.) and six TDs as a junior…selected to play in the Under Armour All-America Game…named to the Scout 300 (No. 23), Rivals 100 (No. 79) and ESPN 100 (No. 111) (funny math there).

We have used our TE a lot in the passing game over the last few years. Two seasons ago in 2015 Holtz and Orndoff combined to grab 37 passes for 594 yards (16.0 ypc) and nine TDs.

This last season we had Orndoff in his SR year and he almost replicated those number all by himself with 35 catches for 579 yards (16.5 ypc) and five TDs. Jaymar Parrish, after being moved from his old FB position chipped in with 4 catches for 78 yards… which is 19.5 ypc and pretty amazing for a guy his size.

With Parrish and Orndoff leaving that leaves only two scholarship TEs on the roster – Clarke and rsSR Zach Poker.Poker was a lightly recruited 2* TE/LB who was moved to LB/DE by the last coaching staff and back to TE by this one.

I’m extremely worried about this position anyway so I’ll say this – if Clark doesn’t live up to the hype, and we have no idea what his blocking skills are like (Poker is better in that skill set I believe), then we are in some trouble. So maybe this is a wishful thinking ‘breakout’ pick rather than a projected one.

At WR we have some very good returning starting talent in rsSR Jester Weah and then some experience in All-Everything JR Quadree Henderson – who had 26 catches for 267 yards and a TD. Those two spots will be OK because I think with the two starting TEs gone and Dontez Ford graduating those two will be our primary receivers.

But they have some good talent behind them also with both Tre Tipton and Aaron Matthews seeing some playing time in ’16. I’m going with Tipton to be that WR who does what Weah did last year – go from a seldom used receiver to not only a starter but maybe a star to boot.

As a recruit Tipton was rated 3* and was, this is interesting, recruited heavily by Michigan State – which may account for his being in the lineup as a true FR when Narduzzi took over.

If you remember Tipton played in the first four games back in 2015 until he had a knee injury and qualified for a medical redshirt. That’s some experience under his belt also in addition to his play last season.

Tipton had 12 receptions for 142 yards (11.8 ypc) and a TD so he was targeted a good amount for a non-starter. But he also filled that ‘WR as RB’ role well with 6 carries for 51 yards (5.5 ypc) so he produces when he has the ball. He’s a speedster and will be able to get downfield for long passes and depending on how strong our new QB Browne’s arm is that could be a great combo.

OK – those three guys are my picks for players we’ll hear about on offense next season. rsJR RB Ollison if the staff wises up and gets him into the games on a regular basis (and if he doesn’t transfer); Chris Clark as the rsSO TE who tries to replace a very prolific Scott Orndoff and then rsSO WR Tre Tipton who has shown good hands and speed and could be a real weapon in the passing game.

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93 thoughts on “Who Are the Breakout Stars in 2017?”

Poker looks like a hardcore athlete. Clarke looks like a dorky kid who is healthy and goes to shool in Greenwich. He is on his 3rd school so expect Poker to pass him up. Kid runs when he faces adversity while Poker seems to embrace it.

Poker isn’t coming back in 2017, and most likely Challingsworth will retire due to his shoulder injury.

Chris Clark is coming back from a knee injury, which is tough. Sometimes those five stars flame out, but hopefully Clark is a major player at Pitt.

Moss and Matthews are my breakout guys on offense in 2017. Those two should thrive with a year in the weight room. Moss should have more power and Matthews will be more refined in his route running. Of course, a new offense is being installed again, so that might affect everyone’s development in the early portion of the season.

I’ll go with RB Rachid Ibrahim as a break out star for ’17. He should be fully recovered now and has some speed and moves to be a dynamic option, albeit not an every down player.

I’ll add JJ-Smith as a super star O-lineman that makes a difference, probably at the key left tackle spot.

Finally, we’ve been a bit fortunate with a relatively healthy QB spot (bowl game aside) so although I expect Max Browne to start and play well, I am throwing out a young Thomas MacVitte that gets called in and surprises some of that skeptical fan base and maintains the offense on track for a 10 win season.

I thought Ffrench showed enough last year for us to expect good things from him this year. He actually took a few snaps at CB also, which may show how deleted the DB talent was. He didn’t make an appearance in the bowl and read nothing about injury or suspension, but I think he can be a big asset this coming year.

I have higher expectations for Moss than apparently Reed has. We’ll see. And FWIW, Moss is from a south suburb of Cleveland about 25 minutes north of Akron where FR Todd Sibley is from … and I can tell you that Sibley is much more heralded in HS than Moss was, But, it’s hard to say what will happen … note that Moss enrolled last January.

Reeves, 6’6 240lb TE is one of the 2 or 3 natural freshman I expect to see on the field next year. Of course, he will be raw, but he is very athletic to go along with his size.

Tough to come up with names because everyone has a different definition of break out because there are different expectations for each player.

For example at TE:

For Poker I would say if he was even on the roster it would almost surprise me. 10 catches would be very surprising to me.

Clark – A year ago I thought it was 30/70 if he makes it to September, 2017 on the roster and healthy. I put it at 50/50 now. If he is here and healthy I expect him to make at least 20 catches because of his perceived skill set.

Reeves – I think he will have the most catches by a TE next year and because he is a Freshman that alone will make him my breakout player.

For running back it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Ollison went for 1000 yards next year after going for 150 this year because he has done it already so is that really breakout. At the same time it would not surprise anyone if he transferred.

The new OC really changes things too.

Picking three:

1) Mathews – Outside of Weah he is the only real tall receiver so I think he gets the ball. Tipton, Henderson, Lopes, Ffrench are all slot guys although maybe Tipton plays outside and Ffrench goes to defense…who knows. If Canada returned I would have said Lopes. He was exciting every time he touched the ball on jet sweeps and kick returns. if Henderson goes down he will be breakout at kick returner. Canada really made this area a strength from a perceived weakness and this is where the new OC passes or fails. For Mathews or Tipton or Ffrench to be considered breakout I think they need to have at least 25 catches.

2) McV – Wins the job through injury or in pre-season but has a solid year. A year similar to Peterman in his first year. I think that would be breakout because most see Browne winning the job and McV. needing one more year.

3) Dintino – Comes in and wins the Centre position and has a solid year. I think people expect JJS to play right tackle so he may not count.

I don’t think we have a 1000 yard back so I see no breakout. We may have 4 guys he run for 300 to 400 each.

about 15 minutes ago, I was listening to XM84 College Sports and they had a guy on who followed coaching hires .. and someone called asking about the Pitt OC hire. He said that Napier was the only name he had heard …. but he thinks HCPN has a purpose in mind for waiting. He speculated that Pitt may be going after an NFL coach who maybe still involved in the playoffs. He thinks that with Pitt personnel, an NFL guy makes a lot of sense.

I’m having an increasingly difficult time watching Kevin Stallings coaching style. You could put a manaquin on the bench and he would be more involved. We have become Duquesne in one year! It’s painful if you care at all about Pitt basketball. There truly is no defense for this guy. Would love to hear some of his supporters tell me how he is a great, no good, no average coach. Oh, the games fun now—- no, winning is fun. This guy is stealing money like none before.

JoeKnew – I agree with your statements on Stallings. Maybe the new AD makes a change for the better sooner rather than later. Kevin is biding his time and collecting a big check with a team of players that don’t care about D either.

Dr Tom and UPitt – are you two married? Constant bickering. haha.
Joe Knew – most people went insane when JD screamed. Most shoe salesmen sit a lot.
Offense – While I am hoping for Ollison to be given the chance to be number 1, if he stays, his would not be a “breakout” season as he has already done that. It would be comeback player’
I like Aaron Matthews to have a breakout year, with Tre Tipton second there. Several OL have to step up but i am not sure any in particular would be a breakout player – unless they get Officer out of center with his inability to snap into the shotgun.

if you think this team is bad, wait until next year! In fairness, there appears to be a pretty good recruiting class coming in, but there are no Kentucky one-and-dones so there Pitt fans will have to be patient

Dixon ran his course at Pitt when the ACC became the league. He never bothered to gave a sh** except for the direct deposit. He wanted out and knew the game was over. He was a very good coach and asset at one time, but not for quite a while. Smiley and Nordy would have never cut the check to get him out and Barnes did the next best thing. Lowered the buyout t move him. Stallings may or may not be a good hire. give him three years to bring in and develop his roster. By year three, that is enough time in BB to see what is what. Guards. guards and more guards is the way to go.

I reserve judgement on any new coach who comes into a suspect program and roster. Stallings has no guards to work with. He has some front court talent but good teams just toy with Pitts defense. If and that is a big if the coming guard is as good as some suggest, that is the quickest way to improve the team.

My primary beef with Herman is lowering the buyout to ship the most successful hoops coach in the history of Pitt.
Explain how on earth that is sage business?
I don’t expect him to be prescient, but show some financial responsibility.

Do not know why Ollison did not get more playing time last year. When recruited his enthusiasm for Pittsburgh as well as Pitt was effusive. In 15 his play was outstanding. Last year he was missing.The few times he played last year he had nice gains..Maybe he is seen as Connor’s replacement and last year was to be Connor’s?

Joe L., my daughter and I are looking at expanding the website to include a magazine type quarterly newsletter that will have some of the better articles in it and some other information about pitt football that I don’t really want to post up on the website… A newsletter about both football and the POV family.

This Pitt POV website will remain free for anyone who wants to read and comment I won’t charge any money for anything associated with the POV at all but we are looking at some ways that I can offset the cost of everything associated with this.

I have spent so much more money in the last 6 months than I thought I would and so I made it a small business LLC so that I can take some off my taxes. But still the $$$ outlay is way bigger than I anticipated it would be now that I am traveling up for every home game plus the bowl game in NYC.

I’m having to get hotel rooms in PGH now as my best friend rented out ‘my’ room this year. So… Two nights each game plus gas, tolls, food,drinks for you guys and tailgates next season will all really add up… and I still buy two season tickets and parking… Most times I either give the tickets to people who are broke or donate them to a non-profit.

It is great having Press Box credentials but I buy the season tickets as my financial support for the program. My personal donations to Pitt go to the academic side and they are as substantial as I can make them on fixed income.

I love doing this for everyone but take notice that almost every other website associated with Pitt football is either a professional one associated with the media or a recruiting site…or has business sponsors who pay them big bucks to advertise…which I will never do.

So l hope we can figure out some way keep me from losing too much money; we are looking at a donation system which would be totally voluntary just to help offset some blog costs.I want to repeat that point –this blog will always be free to read and comment.

Reed, why so adamant about advertising? I don’t find it offensive and I think advertisers would be lining up for your site. In any case thank you for your hard work and financial commitment. This is the best most informative site on Pitt Football.

I was thinking we should create a go fund me for Reed. I’d imagine most of us can throw $100 a piece and that should help. As far as hotels Reed I have 700k points with hilton. I will also do your stays when needed.

Grimm is a shame but injuries just took it’s toll. Shoulder and hip. Not sure with Max if it is 26 or so now. Narduzzi has a number of recruits to close on. I think Pitt would love Garbutt, Proctor, Smith, Twyman, and either another DE, corner,RB. That is 7, They have a couple guys who may come depending on if a couple are not in this class. But 7 looks like the number that brings it to 26.

Hey Upitt did you pick up any easy money on the Pitt BB game. Pitt was actually a slight favorite going into the game.—-I can’t take it any more as now Penn State actually beat #24 Minnesota yesterday 52 to 50. Their BB program is on the rise and ours is going in the tank. Ugg!!

Reed, You should never have to spring for beer or tailgating expenses. That’s the least we can do for you. I will bring a case of beer to every home game tailgate…and I don’t miss many tailgates. Thanks for all you do for the POVerts.

Starting up the Sunday Podcast series again today. During the end of the season I decided to write everything as actual articles to give you readers more opportunity to comment and to discuss with each other than a podcast does.

One other thing. I’m going to start getting in touch with some of you guys in person by phone or email for a couple of reasons, One is I have some things to send out to people and I want to make sure that we have the arrangements for the golf outing ( thank you very much for doing that) and arrangements for the spring game festivities.

So it’ll be over the next few days I’ll either email or ask you guys for your phone numbers so that I can keep a record of that if you don’t mind and I’ll use them to conduct a little bit of the behind-the-scenes planning with you guys.

One way you can really help out with this is by “following” the blog and if you do that I’ll automatically have your email address and that way I can keep a record of who is who and how I can get in touch with you.

Like it or not … Jamie Dixon is one of the darlings of college BB thus far. In his first year thus far, he has transformed the B12 bottom dweller into a very legit program … and with a freshman PG. Last night, TCU beat a pretty good Iowa St team. I’m not saying that TCU will challenge Kansas, or ever possibly challenge the Jayhawks, but for anyone here to make light of what he has done so far would be just typical Pitt blog cynicism.

Having posted the above, Jaimie was probably finished here at Pitt. Not so much due to Pitt’s W/L the past few years … but much more due to the poor recruiting his staff has done recently … and Pitt’s current lack of depth certainly proves this.

In fact … Stallings has already signed a new class that has put anything JD did in the last 4 years to shame. Stallings hiring was certainly sketchy, but like an new coach, he deserves at least 2-3 years to prove himself

Love you Wwb – Nonone deserves nothing in this world. He quit coaching and sat on his ass all game.

You think if we hired pitino he wouldnt of found a stud or 3 of immediate transfer juco ready studs and actually coached. This guy is like a tired al bundy who just worked a double at Belks. Id fired him end of season and rid any part of herman from the program. Basically whomcares about his great 2 win soccer coach. He can stay bc no one cares. Burn the uni’s especially the weak ass cathedral numbers. Look moronic. Herman didnt do shit in 15 minths but make a plan to do stuff.

I guess that game affected me more than I thought, I had a dream the Cathedral of Learning was blown up last night. Maybe a need a new hobby.

It is very intriguing that Jamie is suddenly able to recruit again.

Recruiting is the life blood of success in college sports. Yes coaching makes a difference, maybe 20-30% with the players at 70-80%. Which raises the question, why is it so difficult to recruit to Pitt?

It is unlikely that Pitt will win any game this year without solid efforts from Artis and Young. Duquesne beat us without Artis and Yesterday we saw what happens without Young. Luther also make a marginal difference.

So another question is how much of the performance for the last three games is on the players vs the coaches. If my original assumption is correct only 20-30%, then it is mostly the players. However, it appears that Stallings is not doing all that much with his 20-30%. IMO.

gc – Jamie has a new coaching staff at TCU and their admin opened the “purse strings” to elevate the program.

While at Pitt the last couple of years, Jamie refused to make significant changes to his staff – he himself is NOT a good recruiter nor was his staff – he now has a better staff at TCU.

Jamie can coach – see success at Pitt vs ‘cuse, Duke and UNC from the ACC. And the Big East success speaks for itself. But if you don’t recruit to fill the roster with talent, you get what we saw in the last three ACC blowout losses.

Recruiting is a dirty business. If Louisville was throwing parties with Hookers for recruits and fathers, what else do these schools do? I know part of Jamies problem was with the whole AAU, shoe, trust thing. A way to pay players at arms length.

I think there should be a federal investigation of the whole process. The NCAA covers up most of it.

I like Mathews for a break-out year and I think Moss is going to lead the RBs because he appears a bit quicker than the others. I’d still like to see us get another Dion-type runner with the quick lateral moves and decent speed.