Vox Populi: The regional political geography of the Texas Democratic presidential contest

If Barack Obama wins the Texas primary, it will be because his big victory margins in Houston, Austin and Dallas.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll of 611 likely voters in Texas found Obama building up big leads in Texas’ two largest urban areas, while Clinton has a daunting advantage in South Texas and East Texas.

Statewide, Clinton held a one percentage point edge, 48 percent to 47 percent, which means that the Texas contest is a statistical tie.

The poll, conducted Feb. 16-20, showed Obama ahead in Harris County, 51 percent to 43 percent, and by an even wide margin in Dallas and Tarrant Counties, 65 percent to 34 percent.

Clinton holds an equally commanding lead in heavily Hispanic South Texas, where she leads, 61 percent to 35 percent. In the poll, South Texas is defined as the counties along the Texas-Mexico border, then stretching north to San Antonio and Corpus Christi.

In East Texas, Clinton was ahead by a wide margin, 55 percent to 38 percent. With Obama taking nearly nine in ten African American votes statewide, Clinton would have to be taking a huge percentage of the rural white vote to build up such a large edge in the region east of I-45 (with the exception of Harris County).

The battleground could well be the region the Post/ABC poll called “South Central” Texas, which stretches west to Austin and down the Gulf Coast to the northern border of Nueces County. Obama, who is a big favorite in Austin and Travis County, now holds a 54 percent to 38 percent lead in this pivotal region.

There were not enough Democrats in West Texas to provide reliable data in this relatively small poll.

One Response

I am a Republican and will vote Republican in primary and general election. I am comfortable with the prospect of Obama winning the Democratic nomination, for I believe he cannot win the presidential election regardless of his perceived popularity during the current campaign.