A look ahead to 2013 legislative issues

Having completed two terms in the Florida House of Representatives, Dwayne Taylor has more than a little expertise in understanding how things work in Tallahassee.

DEREK CATRONSTAFF WRITER

Having completed two terms in the Florida House of Representatives, Dwayne Taylor has more than a little expertise in understanding how things work in Tallahassee. The Democrat from Daytona Beach has a favorite proverb to describe the Legislature's inner-workings, one he shared at a couple of meetings this month when lawmakers met with constituents in Volusia County. "If you're not at the table," Taylor told them, "you're probably on the menu." Looking ahead to the legislative session that starts March 5, Taylor's favorite adage can be a helpful tool for figuring out what's likely to happen in 2013 — and to whom it's happening.

BUDGET

Before you can figure out who's at the table, you need to know how big it will be. The good news, economists say, is that the state budget is in better shape at this point than it's been in years. This month state forecasters added about $392 million to estimated tax revenues over the next 18 months. The numbers bring the state's projected budget surplus to about $829 million. But the optimism a surplus might normally produce has been mitigated by a pair of concerns. Sen. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, has been careful to remind residents that the sunny budget outlook could turn overcast faster than even a Sunshine State forecast. "The initial numbers, at least right now, look good," Thrasher said, "but there are two major uncertainties that could impact our budget." The first is the fiscal cliff, and the unpredictable effects it could have, especially on Florida's sales-tax revenues if the economy slips back into recession or consumers simply fear another downturn. The other is a court case pending before the Florida Supreme Court over the Legislature's 2011 decision to require public employees to put 3 percent of their salaries into the state pension fund. "If we lose that case, it could blow a $1 billion hole in our budget," said Thrasher, whose district includes all of Flagler and northeast Volusia County.

EDUCATION

Volusia County school officials feel like they've been on the menu just about every year since the state changed its public education funding formula in 2004. With backing from the county and the business community, they're lobbying for a change. At issue is a yearly cost-of-living adjustment known as "district cost differential" that means counties with lower prices and wages like Volusia get less than more expensive counties like those in South Florida. Volusia officials estimate their losses at $97 million since 2004. Thrasher, along with Sen. David Simmons, R-Altamonte Springs, said this month lawmakers would seek supplemental funds to help the district offset its losses, saying they had a better chance of achieving that than a revamp to the funding formula. Simmons, whose Seminole County-based district now includes Southwest Volusia, also wants to see an increase in overall education funding. "It's one thing to demand accountability -- and I am a strong believer in accountability -- but you can't demand accountability without providing the resources," he said. "It's like beating a horse that hasn't been fed." Meanwhile, Gov. Rick Scott, who vetoed a bill this year that would have removed a tuition cap for the state's major research universities, is pushing a plan to encourage state colleges to develop a bachelor's degree program that would cost $10,000. Daytona State College is among the schools who have embraced the goal.

ELECTIONS

Florida voters may have felt like they were on the menu, especially if they had to wait to cast ballots or got caught up in confusion over the state's elections laws. Legislative leaders have promised a thorough review after the long waits in the November election once again made the state the butt of late-night comedy routines. Count freshman Rep. Dave Hood, R-Daytona Beach Shores, among those hoping to see election reform: "The state needs to quit being an embarrassment," he said at the Volusia County legislative delegation hearing in DeLand this month. Democrats point out that the controversial election law adopted by the Legislature in 2011 didn't seem to make things easier for either voters or elections supervisors. The law cut the early voting period from 14 days to eight, which helped lengthen Election Day lines. The law also led to a surge in provisional ballots that loaded down elections officials with more paperwork, despite scant evidence of the kind of voter fraud that was driving the changes. In interviews last week, Scott said he was concerned about three things that added to long lines on Election Day: length of ballots, the size of polling sites and the number of early voting days. "We've got to go back and look at the number of days of early voting we have," he said.

HEALTH CARE

Though local lawmakers haven't spent much time talking about it yet, reconciling the state's health care system with the mandates of the Affordable Care Act -- a.k.a. "Obamacare" -- will be another major task next year. The federal government would give Florida billions of dollars to increase the state's Medicaid rolls. Experts estimate as many as one-quarter of Florida's 4 million uninsured could join the rolls under the expanded program, but the governor has said the state can't afford to pay its share of the deal, even with the federal government paying 90 percent of future costs. Scott and other Republican governors called for a meeting with federal officials to discuss whether Florida would expand Medicaid eligibility and create a health-insurance exchange. He plans to meet Jan. 7 with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.

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