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Varsity Numbers: Updated 2014 Projections

by Bill Connelly

With the 2014 college football season approaching quickly -- the FBS slate kicks off at 6 p.m. EDT on Thursday when Texas A&M takes on South Carolina in Columbia -- I figured it would be best to celebrate like we always do: by sharing some last-second F/+ projections.

The world keeps spinning after we publish the annual Football Outsiders Almanac: Players get hurt or kicked off their respective teams, we figure out tweaks to make the projections better, etc. Therefore, the projections we share in the FOA are outdated the moment the book is published.

Below are the updated F/+ projections for 2014. So what changed in this forecast? First of all, some of the returnee data changed as players left and my own data just got more accurate. Second, on the S&P+ end of the equation, I moved from a weighted five-year average for the "History" portion of the projections, to a weighted three-year average. There's a lot of redundancy in using Years 3, 4, and 5 in the equation, and three-year results seem to give me either similar or better numbers.

Again, this didn't make for any serious impact, but it did change some numbers a bit.

Team

Conf

Proj.S&P+

Rk

Proj. FEI

Rk

Proj. F/+

Rk

Proj.Off. F/+

Rk

Proj.Def. F/+

Rk

Florida State

ACC

279.4

1

0.271

3

33.7%

1

29.8%

4

37.7%

1

Alabama

SEC

263.5

2

0.279

1

30.2%

2

28.8%

5

31.5%

5

Oregon

Pac-12

242.9

3

0.279

2

25.0%

3

35.8%

2

14.2%

26

Stanford

Pac-12

237.7

5

0.253

4

22.4%

4

13.3%

30

31.4%

6

South Carolina

SEC

237.5

6

0.217

6

20.5%

5

25.7%

9

15.2%

24

LSU

SEC

234.6

12

0.212

7

19.5%

6

21.2%

14

17.9%

18

Oklahoma

Big 12

228.5

18

0.238

5

19.3%

7

12.7%

31

25.9%

10

Auburn

SEC

234.2

14

0.198

8

18.7%

8

28.7%

6

8.8%

39

Michigan State

Big Ten

234.5

13

0.189

9

18.4%

9

2.2%

61

34.5%

3

USC

Pac-12

236.2

8

0.176

11

18.1%

10

6.9%

43

29.3%

8

Georgia

SEC

236.0

10

0.174

12

18.0%

11

21.1%

15

14.9%

25

Ohio State

Big Ten

236.0

9

0.171

13

17.9%

12

25.6%

10

10.1%

34

Baylor

Big 12

236.3

7

0.151

19

16.9%

13

30.9%

3

3.0%

58

Texas A&M

SEC

235.1

11

0.152

18

16.7%

14

35.8%

1

-2.5%

72

Clemson

ACC

238.5

4

0.133

23

16.6%

15

12.6%

32

20.5%

15

UCLA

Pac-12

227.5

19

0.185

10

16.4%

16

19.6%

17

13.2%

28

Oklahoma State

Big 12

228.8

17

0.169

14

15.9%

17

7.3%

42

24.6%

11

Wisconsin

Big Ten

231.4

16

0.142

21

15.3%

18

14.9%

28

15.6%

22

Louisville

ACC

233.2

15

0.123

27

14.8%

19

17.2%

21

12.3%

32

Arizona State

Pac-12

225.0

20

0.164

15

14.7%

20

24.3%

12

5.1%

52

Missouri

SEC

223.6

22

0.158

16

14.1%

21

10.8%

35

17.3%

19

Notre Dame

Ind

221.1

26

0.143

20

12.7%

22

17.0%

22

8.4%

43

Washington

Pac-12

220.8

27

0.136

22

12.3%

23

15.9%

23

8.6%

41

Central Florida

American

221.2

25

0.131

24

12.1%

24

15.1%

25

9.2%

36

Ole Miss

SEC

222.4

23

0.122

30

12.0%

25

0.2%

68

23.8%

12

Team

Conf

Proj.S&P+

Rk

Proj. FEI

Rk

Proj. F/+

Rk

Proj.Off. F/+

Rk

Proj.Def. F/+

Rk

Virginia Tech

ACC

224.4

21

0.110

35

11.9%

26

-10.8%

89

34.6%

2

Mississippi State

SEC

221.5

24

0.108

36

11.1%

27

1.6%

65

20.5%

14

Boise State

MWC

218.6

28

0.123

28

11.0%

28

9.6%

37

12.5%

30

Kansas State

Big 12

212.2

37

0.154

17

11.0%

29

20.2%

16

1.7%

60

Michigan

Big Ten

218.2

29

0.122

29

10.9%

30

12.4%

33

9.5%

35

BYU

Ind

217.2

31

0.120

31

10.6%

31

3.8%

53

17.3%

20

Iowa

Big Ten

215.2

33

0.128

25

10.5%

32

2.1%

62

18.8%

16

Florida

SEC

217.1

32

0.111

34

10.1%

33

-11.9%

91

32.0%

4

Arizona

Pac-12

214.1

35

0.101

37

8.9%

34

11.5%

34

6.2%

49

Texas

Big 12

211.0

39

0.115

33

8.7%

35

2.0%

63

15.5%

23

North Carolina

ACC

215.0

34

0.091

38

8.6%

36

13.9%

29

3.2%

57

Oregon State

Pac-12

207.5

46

0.124

26

8.3%

37

14.9%

26

1.6%

62

Houston

American

209.1

41

0.115

32

8.3%

38

2.5%

59

14.0%

27

TCU

Big 12

214.1

36

0.085

39

8.1%

39

-13.1%

95

29.2%

9

Miami

ACC

217.6

30

0.066

44

8.0%

40

28.6%

7

-12.6%

101

Nebraska

Big Ten

208.4

44

0.085

40

6.6%

41

-2.8%

76

16.0%

21

Georgia Tech

ACC

209.0

42

0.066

43

5.8%

42

15.4%

24

-3.8%

75

Texas Tech

Big 12

206.6

48

0.078

42

5.8%

43

25.3%

11

-13.7%

106

Utah

Pac-12

205.4

50

0.081

41

5.7%

44

-1.0%

71

12.4%

31

Pittsburgh

ACC

210.0

40

0.053

47

5.4%

45

3.1%

57

7.7%

44

Penn State

Big Ten

211.1

38

0.046

48

5.3%

46

-7.3%

85

18.0%

17

Northwestern

Big Ten

204.7

51

0.063

45

4.6%

47

4.7%

50

4.4%

54

Duke

ACC

203.9

53

0.059

46

4.2%

48

17.5%

19

-9.1%

91

Indiana

Big Ten

207.4

47

0.024

55

3.3%

49

25.9%

8

-19.4%

112

Cincinnati

American

202.2

57

0.044

49

3.0%

50

5.0%

49

1.0%

64

Team

Conf

Proj.S&P+

Rk

Proj. FEI

Rk

Proj. F/+

Rk

Proj.Off. F/+

Rk

Proj.Def. F/+

Rk

Northern Illinois

MAC

200.1

60

0.044

50

2.4%

51

14.9%

27

-10.0%

93

Maryland

Big Ten

202.9

56

0.028

54

2.4%

52

-4.0%

80

8.8%

38

Bowling Green

MAC

206.3

49

0.007

58

2.2%

53

9.3%

38

-5.0%

79

Utah State

MWC

208.6

43

-0.004

62

2.2%

54

-25.8%

124

30.1%

7

Toledo

MAC

204.5

52

0.010

57

1.9%

55

8.2%

40

-4.5%

76

Fresno State

MWC

207.6

45

-0.013

67

1.5%

56

5.6%

45

-2.6%

73

Washington State

Pac-12

197.5

63

0.034

52

1.3%

57

4.6%

51

-2.0%

69

Marshall

Conf USA

203.2

55

0.004

59

1.3%

58

9.6%

36

-7.1%

86

Vanderbilt

SEC

199.9

61

0.016

56

1.0%

59

2.2%

60

-0.2%

66

Navy

Ind

195.5

66

0.031

53

0.7%

60

21.5%

13

-20.2%

114

East Carolina

American

203.3

54

-0.010

64

0.6%

61

5.6%

46

-4.5%

77

West Virginia

Big 12

191.4

75

0.041

51

0.1%

62

-3.9%

78

4.1%

55

Arkansas

SEC

200.4

59

-0.012

66

-0.3%

63

6.1%

44

-6.7%

85

Virginia

ACC

198.6

62

-0.015

68

-0.9%

64

-22.8%

117

21.0%

13

Syracuse

ACC

195.0

68

-0.001

60

-1.1%

65

-3.9%

79

1.8%

59

Tennessee

SEC

201.8

58

-0.040

75

-1.3%

66

-10.3%

88

7.6%

45

Minnesota

Big Ten

193.1

71

-0.012

65

-2.1%

67

-7.6%

87

3.4%

56

Nevada

MWC

192.9

72

-0.016

69

-2.3%

68

17.3%

20

-22.0%

118

Rutgers

Big Ten

189.2

83

-0.002

61

-2.5%

69

-2.7%

74

-2.4%

71

N.C. State

ACC

193.8

70

-0.030

73

-2.8%

70

-11.9%

92

6.3%

48

Iowa State

Big 12

188.8

84

-0.006

63

-2.9%

71

1.7%

64

-7.4%

87

UTSA

Conf USA

196.5

64

-0.052

78

-3.2%

72

0.2%

67

-6.6%

84

Boston College

ACC

192.4

74

-0.034

74

-3.4%

73

-4.6%

81

-2.2%

70

UL-Lafayette

Sun Belt

190.4

79

-0.027

72

-3.5%

74

3.5%

55

-10.5%

94

Team

Conf

Proj.S&P+

Rk

Proj. FEI

Rk

Proj. F/+

Rk

Proj.Off. F/+

Rk

Proj.Def. F/+

Rk

Tulsa

American

192.7

73

-0.043

76

-3.7%

75

-20.2%

113

12.7%

29

Ball State

MAC

194.5

69

-0.066

83

-4.4%

76

4.6%

52

-13.4%

105

Illinois

Big Ten

196.1

65

-0.075

86

-4.5%

77

-2.8%

75

-6.2%

82

North Texas

Conf USA

195.4

67

-0.080

88

-4.9%

78

-15.3%

98

5.5%

51

Temple

American

183.9

95

-0.024

71

-5.0%

79

5.0%

48

-15.0%

109

Kentucky

SEC

189.9

81

-0.056

79

-5.1%

80

3.2%

56

-13.4%

104

Connecticut

American

181.7

96

-0.022

70

-5.4%

81

-17.4%

105

6.5%

47

San Diego State

MWC

188.4

85

-0.060

80

-5.6%

82

-16.4%

100

5.1%

53

SMU

American

190.5

78

-0.074

85

-5.8%

83

-7.0%

84

-4.7%

78

South Florida

American

185.1

94

-0.051

77

-6.0%

84

-21.1%

114

9.1%

37

Colorado State

MWC

189.4

82

-0.074

84

-6.1%

85

-13.8%

96

1.6%

63

California

Pac-12

186.5

91

-0.061

81

-6.2%

86

-1.6%

72

-10.8%

95

Memphis

American

186.4

92

-0.062

82

-6.3%

87

-19.8%

109

7.2%

46

San Jose State

MWC

191.1

76

-0.091

93

-6.5%

88

3.6%

54

-16.7%

110

Rice

Conf USA

190.5

77

-0.089

91

-6.6%

89

-7.5%

86

-5.7%

81

South Alabama

Sun Belt

187.7

86

-0.078

87

-6.8%

90

-1.9%

73

-11.7%

99

Western Kentucky

Conf USA

187.1

87

-0.082

89

-7.1%

91

-2.9%

77

-11.3%

96

Team

Conf

Proj.S&P+

Rk

Proj. FEI

Rk

Proj. F/+

Rk

Proj.Off. F/+

Rk

Proj.Def. F/+

Rk

Buffalo

MAC

190.2

80

-0.106

101

-7.5%

92

-14.1%

97

-0.9%

67

Tulane

American

186.7

89

-0.090

92

-7.6%

93

-23.8%

121

8.6%

40

Arkansas State

Sun Belt

185.3

93

-0.093

94

-8.1%

94

-17.9%

106

1.7%

61

Wake Forest

ACC

186.8

88

-0.104

98

-8.3%

95

-26.8%

125

10.2%

33

Florida Atlantic

Conf USA

186.6

90

-0.105

99

-8.3%

96

-22.8%

118

6.1%

50

Middle Tennessee

Conf USA

181.2

97

-0.102

97

-9.6%

97

-19.4%

108

0.2%

65

Kent State

MAC

177.4

104

-0.096

95

-10.2%

98

-10.9%

90

-9.5%

92

Colorado

Pac-12

179.5

98

-0.110

102

-10.4%

99

-12.1%

93

-8.7%

90

Hawaii

MWC

179.3

100

-0.121

105

-11.0%

100

-16.9%

101

-5.0%

80

Kansas

Big 12

175.9

106

-0.106

100

-11.1%

101

-30.7%

126

8.5%

42

Central Michigan

MAC

171.6

113

-0.085

90

-11.1%

102

-0.7%

70

-21.6%

117

Army

Ind

173.8

108

-0.102

96

-11.4%

103

1.5%

66

-24.3%

121

UNLV

MWC

179.4

99

-0.142

107

-12.0%

104

-6.1%

83

-17.9%

111

Purdue

Big Ten

172.8

110

-0.115

104

-12.3%

105

-12.5%

94

-12.2%

100

Wyoming

MWC

177.7

103

-0.142

108

-12.4%

106

-5.4%

82

-19.5%

113

Louisiana Tech

Conf USA

171.3

114

-0.112

103

-12.6%

107

-17.1%

104

-8.0%

88

UL-Monroe

Sun Belt

177.2

105

-0.143

109

-12.7%

108

-22.7%

116

-2.6%

74

Air Force

MWC

175.7

107

-0.146

110

-13.1%

109

5.5%

47

-31.7%

122

Ohio

MAC

178.1

102

-0.161

114

-13.3%

110

-25.4%

123

-1.2%

68

Troy

Sun Belt

178.4

101

-0.175

116

-14.0%

111

8.4%

39

-36.4%

125

Akron

MAC

173.5

109

-0.158

113

-14.3%

112

-20.0%

111

-8.6%

89

Southern Miss

Conf USA

169.1

116

-0.148

111

-14.9%

113

-23.4%

120

-6.4%

83

Western Michigan

MAC

167.6

117

-0.142

106

-15.0%

114

-16.9%

102

-13.0%

102

Texas State

Sun Belt

171.9

112

-0.180

118

-15.8%

115

-20.2%

112

-11.5%

98

New Mexico

MWC

172.0

111

-0.186

120

-16.1%

116

18.9%

18

-51.0%

128

UAB

Conf USA

169.3

115

-0.179

117

-16.4%

117

2.9%

58

-35.7%

123

UTEP

Conf USA

163.6

118

-0.168

115

-17.3%

118

8.1%

41

-42.7%

126

Florida International

Conf USA

157.3

123

-0.149

112

-17.9%

119

-21.2%

115

-14.6%

108

Idaho

Sun Belt

161.7

119

-0.182

119

-18.5%

120

-23.9%

122

-13.0%

103

Old Dominion

Conf USA

161.4

120

-0.193

121

-19.1%

121

-17.0%

103

-21.2%

115

Appalachian State

Sun Belt

157.7

122

-0.212

123

-21.0%

122

-19.2%

107

-22.8%

119

Georgia Southern

Sun Belt

156.2

124

-0.219

124

-21.7%

123

-19.9%

110

-23.5%

120

Eastern Michigan

MAC

160.8

121

-0.245

126

-21.9%

124

0.1%

69

-43.8%

127

Georgia State

Sun Belt

150.0

128

-0.202

122

-22.4%

125

-23.3%

119

-21.6%

116

Miami (Ohio)

MAC

155.1

125

-0.230

125

-22.5%

126

-33.8%

127

-11.3%

97

Massachusetts

MAC

152.4

126

-0.250

127

-24.2%

127

-34.2%

128

-14.3%

107

New Mexico State

Sun Belt

152.4

127

-0.291

128

-26.3%

128

-16.4%

99

-36.2%

124

Ball State moved up six spots, Buffalo moved up four, and five teams (Georgia Tech, Kent State, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Virginia) moved up three. On the flip side, seven teams moved down three spots (Air Force, Florida, Kentucky, Michigan, UConn, USF, and Wake Forest), four moved down four (Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, and TCU), and Iowa State moved down five.

Using the new rankings, here's a quick rundown of the top three teams in each FBS conference:

South Carolina is the most interesting of the top teams to me. The Gamecocks basically lose four of their top five players from last year, but they return almost literally everybody else, and our numbers tend to lean on depth over star power. We'll see if the 'Cocks reward the faith there.

The Playoff

Along with updated numbers come updated playoff probabilities. Teams are grouped according to their percentage chance of making the first ever College Football Playoff. Brian Fremeau sent me these numbers, and he'll be updating them all year in the Wednesday FEI columns. Can't wait to see how this unfolds (and whether the assumptions on which these numbers are based turn out to be true):

Nerd fight!

F/+ is a combination of S&P+ and FEI, and that goes for both in-season numbers and preseason projections. Brian and I each came up with our own projections, then mashed them together; S&P+ and FEI disagree rather strongly about quite a few teams.

Among top-50 teams, S&P+ likes Clemson and Baylor significantly more than FEI and shows favoritism toward others like Virginia Tech, Miami, Louisville, and Mississippi State. FEI, meanwhile, has a pro-Big 12 bent: Kansas State is projected 20 spots higher by FEI (and I tend to side with FEI on this one), while Oklahoma is projected 13 spots higher (I'm a little queasier about this one). The Fightin' Fremeaus also prefer Oregon State, UCLA, Houston, and Utah quite a bit more.

Near the top, though, there is minimal disagreement. Four of S&P+'s top five are also in FEI's top 10, and seven of S&P+'s top 10 are in FEI's top 12.

The projections here don't have any special teams data (volatility), but the projections in the almanac are Off F/+ plus Def F/+ = F/+. Unless you're projecting Bama's F/+ as over 60 - in which case, carry on!

Bill,
Tried to email you yesterday and got bounced back a couple times so I figured I'd post here. I'm looking for a list of the Program F/+ %s for this year if it's available. Last year, the number was included for all major conference teams in the almanac, but this year only the Program F/+ ranking has been included.

Agree with SaxonRBR's comment as well that the Off and Def F/+ numbers appear to be off significantly in the table above.

I'm surprised (but happily so) by the Oklahoma State ranking. I am not familiar enough with the nuts and bolts of the squad, but I hear things like "most turn-over of starters in the country" and "super hard schedule" and "Oklahoma is the greatest Big XII team ever, period, Bob Stoops, beating Alabama, national title" and so on from the local (Oklahoma) sports radio crowd and I figured OSU would be lucky to win 6 games. Seeing them at #17 puts a smile on this homer's face, and even seeing them listed as a possible (9.9%!!) play-off participant is amazing.

I hope F/+ holds up and maybe all the things will go just right for the Cowboys!