5 potential SEC East upsets that could determine division race

The SEC East figures to be one of the most competitive divisions in college football this season.

An argument can be made that at least five teams have a legitimate shot at getting to Atlanta at season’s end, and the other two are more than capable of playing spoiler.

College football is exceptionally hard to predict, which is part of what makes it so exciting, and this season can turn out any number of ways. As we look ahead, however, we’ve identified five possible upsets that could greatly impact the division race.

For clarification, games between the East’s primary contenders are what will most likely determine which team wins the division. In a tightly-contested race, though, it can be the school with the fewest slip-ups that is left standing.

Here are five of those possible slip-ups.

South Carolina at Missouri, Week 2

The Gamecocks aren’t factoring much into the SEC East conversation, but they have the potential to build momentum and become a dangerous midseason contender.

That is, of course, if they can get off the ground.

South Carolina’s defense will be slightly retooled from last year, and it will be tested early. In Week 2, the Gamecocks face the SEC’s No. 5 scoring offense from 2016. Missouri has defensive problems to figure out, but the Tigers can score enough points to win this one.

Mississippi State at Georgia, Week 4

The Battle of the Bulldogs could be an exciting affair in Athens. Georgia is expected to be much improved in Kirby Smart’s second season, while Mississippi State has one of the SEC’s most exciting players in Nick Fitzgerald and a defense that will be full of JUCO transfers.

If Mississippi State’s defense performs early under Todd Grantham, he won’t hesitate to bring a lot of pressure at Jacob Eason. With so many obstacles in its own division, Georgia doesn’t want to drop an early one against the SEC West. Not with annual partner Auburn still looming, on the Plains, no less.

Florida at Kentucky, Week 4

These two teams should be the most evenly matched on paper among the competitors on this list, but Kentucky has lost 30 consecutive games to Florida and will be considered an underdog until it breaks that streak.

The last time Kentucky beat Florida -- in 1986 -- Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops was a defensive back at Iowa.

Last year’s matchup was lopsided, but things might have gone differently had they met later in the season. Although it has talent, Kentucky’s defense struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone in 2016. There are reasons to believe it will play better in 2017, however.

Unless Florida’s offense is vastly improved from last year, the Wildcats should be able to keep the game close enough to earn their first victory over the Gators in three decades.

Georgia at Vanderbilt, Week 6

There’s no way Georgia loses to Vanderbilt two years in a row, right?

Vanderbilt hasn't beaten Georgia in consecutive seasons since winning three straight from 1956-58.

After dropping a winnable game at home last season, it should be easy for Smart to motivate his team for this one. Coming off a road game against Tennessee, however, there’s a chance the Bulldogs have an emotional letdown after a big win or a hangover after a deflating loss.

Vanderbilt won’t be afraid of Georgia after last year’s victory, and the Commodores are surprisingly 2-2 against the Bulldogs in their past four games.

Tennessee at Missouri, Week 11

Tennessee has a few potential losses late in its schedule, but with the Vols hosting LSU in Week 12, a trip to Missouri a week earlier seems like a dangerous trap.

Although Tennessee scored 63 points against the Tigers in 2016, it’s unlikely any player will replicate Josh Dobbs’ 5-touchdown performance.

More concerning for the Vols is the 740 yards and 37 points they allowed against Missouri because most of those Tigers are back.

Both teams have questions entering the season, but those should be ironed out in some fashion by Week 11.

Right now, it’s not difficult to imagine the Tigers’ offensive weapons gashing the Vols’ defense again. This time, Dobbs won’t be around to play the role of Superman.

Comments

Tennessee’s defense was gashed by Mizzou and most of the final opponents because 9 out of 11 positions on defense were occupied by a 2nd or 3rd string player, sometimes worse, due to injury. And its easy to prove this theory by the fact that the team was 5-0 and giving up 23 points per game before the first loss (before injuries started to pile up) and from that point on the team was 3-4 and gave up 33 points per game. You’re not gonna stop anybody with scrubs playing at multiple positions on defense. Then, in the bowl game and hold their opponent to 24 points. My point is that Tennessee’s defense will be fine if it stays healthy.

Don’t want to sound like a ‘homer’ here. I have a pretty realistic expectation for my Missouri squad. That said, Mizzou’s SEC record against Tennessee is 3-2; for whatever reason, we always play you tough. You’re breaking in a new QB this year and you’ve got the distraction of LSU the following week. Classic trap game.

3-2 is deceptive when you are 0-2 in the last two games and got 63 hung on you in a conference game. That kind of stuff usually only happens to kentucky or vandy. It’s like when yall say that you have won the East twice in the 5 years yall have been in the league. When in reality the state of Mizzou and the rest of the East is much different from when yall won those first two years.

I’m not saying that this isn’t a trap game for UT, because it definitely is. However, to say that Tennessee’s defense will be the same as the one that got shredded by most opponents in the back half of their schedule last year, is just being short-sided.

And to say we have the same defense that you hung 63 on last year … ditto. As for who beat whom … we were 3-0 against you prior to going 0-2 … there are lies; damn lies; and then there are statistics. History means nothing – this is college ball and things change every year.

Here’s your reality. Dobbs is gone; you’re replacing your starting backfield; Maybin, Sutton, and Vereen are gone from your defense. You have a murderous first six games. If you are 2-4, or even 3-3 coming into road games against Kentucky and Mizzou the alumni will be howling for Butch’s blood – hell, you go 0-6 and he will likely be fired – all of which adds to the distraction. And you play LSU the following week.

I didn’t finish my thought regarding injured players returning for the bowl game, but we finally got a healthy DKjr at MLB, plus a few of the others came back. But the original point still stands. Before injuries the team was 5-0. If you look at where teams were beating Tennessee it makes an even better case for the late season defensive swoon. Tennessee lost every D-Tackle on the roster except an undersized Vickers and resorted to playing 260-270lb D-Ends at Tackle. UT also lost their MLB. So, what do teams do, they gash Tennessee right down the middle on the ground. If Tennessee has a healthy Tuttle and Mackenzie and O’brien isn’t kicked off the team then games like the UK and Mizzou wins are not even close. Even though they really werent anyway.

Still on the kentucky is going to beat florida thing. all we heard was that last year, and when they played, we know what happened. I don’t understand why you think florida will lose. The offense is more talented than last year. Kentucky is a much improved team, but they still have a long way to go. Thats just my opinion.

Last year was a total disaster, but 2014 and 2015 were damn good games, especially 2014… never gonna forget that one. The defense is going to be improved this year, and there’s a lot more stability and a lot fewer question marks right now than there have been in the past few years at the same time of the year. This team’s gotten progressively better under Stoops each year, so it stands to reason we’ll pick off another SEC opponent this year as we’ve done the past few. And besides all that, I mean we gotta beat em at some point. Right? lol

The battle of the Columbia’s is usually a really good game to watch the lone exception being 2015 which was like watching paint dry. I don’t like that we start off with NC State then bam go straight to Missouri if we beat NC State which is no foregone conclusion we could come out flat against Missouri and that could lead to another Miss State performance from last year. It will definitely be interesting to watch the battle of the Columbia’s this season and its only SEC vs SEC game in week 2.