Monday, October 11, 2010

Braves Loss - It Hurts, but Cox screwed this up

Every day, I take a 30 minute break and walk around the parking deak and listen to the ESPN Baseball Today podcast. It's hosted by Seth Everett and Eric Karabell of ESPN.

Today, Eric commented that Friday night, after the BillY Wagner injury, that Bobby Cox had other options in the bullpen beyond Farnsworth? It was the 10th inning. His only other choice was Christian Martinez.

Seth described the awful way the Braves lost Sunday as being the worst he could remember. Does he remember Friday's game and how the Giants lost? They had a 4-1 lead after 7 innings and their closer lost it for them in the 8th. Then Billy Wagner gets hurt and Rick Ankiel (Rick Ankiel!) joins the Babe by hitting a GW homer. I actually think the Giants loss is worse (the Braves are crippled and saddled with Brooks Conrad), but since I am a Braves fan, Sunday's is much more painful. They were right to ask why wasn't Diory Hernandez in at 3rd in the 9th and move Infante to 2nd. On Friday, after Glaus's heroic DP, Cox had enough sense to replace him with Hernandez for the bottom of the 11th. Why not Sunday replace a guy who's single-handedly trying to give this thing to the Giants (in addition to the lousy defense is lost the awful bunt he made ahead of Hinske's homer)?

Eric is out to lunch on Aubrey Huff's splits ("Aubrey Huff can't hit lefthanders."). Going lefty-lefty against Huff did nothing to improve the Braves' chances. Sure, he proportionally strikes out and hits into more DP's, but, the Braves needed neither of those, and if you were looking for a strikeout, Kimbrel was certainly the go-to guy, not Dunn. Yes, a poor decision by Cox. But, not as bad as the 2-2 slider to Sanchez, who couldn't hit Kimbrel's fastball. A little league coach would never have thrown that pitch to him seeing his swings against Kimbrel.

Huff's 2010 Splits:

Split

G

GS

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

TB

GDP

HBP

SH

SF

IBB

ROE

BAbip

tOPS+

sOPS+

vs RHP

145

480

407

117

28

2

19

59

6

0

66

60

.287

.388

.506

.894

206

10

3

0

4

5

2

.295

101

138

vs LHP

90

188

162

48

7

3

7

27

1

0

17

31

.296

.378

.506

.884

82

7

6

0

3

0

4

.323

98

158

Look at Dunn's splits. Sure, he strikes out lefties more, but he's not that much more effective against them:

Split

G

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

SB

CS

BB

SO

SO/BB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

TB

GDP

HBP

SH

SF

IBB

ROE

BAbip

tOPS+

sOPS+

vs RHB

21

44

33

4

7

1

0

1

0

0

11

9

0.82

.212

.409

.333

.742

11

2

0

0

0

2

0

.261

125

104

vs LHB

24

44

38

6

8

2

0

0

0

0

6

18

3.00

.211

.318

.263

.581

10

0

0

0

0

0

1

.400

76

73

Is Kimbrel awful against lefties? Let's look:

Split

G

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

SB

CS

BB

SO

SO/BB

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

TB

GDP

HBP

SH

SF

IBB

ROE

BAbip

tOPS+

sOPS+

vs RHB

21

47

38

0

3

1

0

0

0

0

9

22

2.44

.079

.255

.105

.361

4

0

0

0

0

0

1

.188

58

8

vs LHB

20

41

34

2

6

1

0

0

0

0

7

18

2.57

.176

.317

.206

.523

7

1

0

0

0

1

1

.375

146

44

I think the numbers make the argument here - Kimbrel against lefties is essentially Mike Dunn with a better chance of a strikeout.

Stupid moves of Sunday's game:

1. The 2-2 pitch to Sanchez (McCann, Kimbrel?)

2. Taking out Kimbrel (Cox)

3. Having Conrad in the game at all in the 9th (Cox - and I am cutting him some slack for having him in the game in the 1st)

To give you something else to think about for the rest of the week, when the Braves are eliminated, how many days until Freddi Gonzalez is announced as the new manager?

Finally, we all love VJohnny enters this year, but, he's a starter, and that's how he came up. I expect the team to give him a chance to win a rotation spot next year, with Kimbrel getting Wagner's job. With Medlen out for the year, that will give the Braves choices of JJ, Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, Minor and Venters. Someone's getting traded (Lowe, JJ?). I think Lowe improved his value in September and October and the Braves may try to move him again to get a bat and dump salary. Kawakami is toast. Welcome to Kansas City or Seattle, Kenshin.