The first one was caused by food, though. And with last year's corn harvest being bad and this summer's weather being completely up in the air since we didn't really have a winter this year, who knows where food prices will go

So when should I set the alarm to take money off the table and run? Bloomberg panel gave the number at $650. If it ever hits that, cash your chips and don't look back. How's your number?

The point about not losing sleep over your investments is valid.

Also, you are not required to sell off your entire position (well, unless you only own one share ). You can protect profits by selling off a portion of your holdings, and keeping some if you think the value will continue to climb. Thus, the percentage of your holdings would drop, but you would continue to have an opportunity to see the remainder increase in value (or possibly decrease).

Also, you are not required to sell off your entire position (well, unless you only own one share ). You can protect profits by selling off a portion of your holdings, and keeping some if you think the value will continue to climb. Thus, the percentage of your holdings would drop, but you would continue to have an opportunity to see the remainder increase in value (or possibly decrease).

Seems to me that if you don't want to lose your shirt in the stock market, you don't put your shirt in the stock market. Invest what you can afford to lose and keep out what you cannot. If you lose due to a huge market correction or other steep decline in share prices then you did not invest wisely. There are no guarantees in the stock market other than the prices will fluctuate from day to day. How much and in what direction completely depends on factors that are beyond anyone's control.

NoahJ"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi

Seems to me that if you don't want to lose your shirt in the stock market, you don't put your shirt in the stock market. Invest what you can afford to lose and keep out what you cannot. If you lose due to a huge market correction or other steep decline in share prices then you did not invest wisely. There are no guarantees in the stock market other than the prices will fluctuate from day to day. How much and in what direction completely depends on factors that are beyond anyone's control.

Of course there are no guarantees in the stock market. However, in the long term (like decades), a diversified stock portfolio will outperform many other investments. Every investment has a risk, with potential upside and downside.

There are alternative investments that negatively correlate with the stock market as well.

Every individual has their own level of acceptable risk tolerance. Each investor should come to their own conclusions about how to build a portfolio that presents ample opportunity for appreciation, yet isn't so risky as to cause losing sleep.

No one is ever going to bat 1.000 in their investments. You win some, you lose some. The goal is to learn from your mistakes, get better with time, and have some investments that at least outperform the inflation rate, and maybe even the S&P 500.

If you don't care to do the research yourself, you can shove your money into mutual funds, ETFs, etc. and let the professionals try to figure it out.

For me, I am happy to have taken the risk of investing in AAPL. As AAPL's share price increases, it has become a larger percentage of my overall portfolio, but it is still well below 10% of my total direct holdings (there's some AAPL being indirectly held via various mutual funds). Note that I'm not required to liquidate my entire AAPL position. I can sell a portion and walk away with a bundle of cash, yet still have the chance to make more (or lose some). Most likely, if my AAPL direct holdings do exceed 10% of my total portfolio, I will consider selling some off to diversify.

Unfortunately not. They cause inexperienced investors and "fans" of companies without the acumen to understand how the stock market works to invest too much in one company, and eventually the bubble pops and people lose their shirts.

Used to be you had to be really old to have participated in the "last" bubble and the current one. These days you only need to be 25 or so. And yet people are still too foolish to have that much hindsight.

If you find yourself "cheering" for something that happens in the stock market, it's probably too late for you.

Buy low, sell high.

Disclosure - still long Apple, but very wary.

Focus on fundamentals, not on fear mongering emotive theories. AAPL has a long way to go to get near "catching up" to its proper fundamental value. The new iPad ads big insurance to upcoming Earnings, we have big products in the pipeline, and a Forward P/E drastically low.

The reason that AAPL is soaring is NOT because people are idiots and buying into hype, it's because there is too much more upside before it catches up to its "where will it go" range.

People on this Board tend to get fickle based on "what ifs". Just some months ago, the usual suspects were scared that "we might not have any way to get up past $400 again".

The reason that AAPL is soaring is NOT because people are idiots and buying into hype, it's because there is too much more upside before it catches up to its "where will it go" range.

Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.

Quote:

People on this Board tend to get fickle based on "what ifs". Just some months ago, the usual suspects were scared that "we might not have any way to get up past $400 again".

Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.

Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.

Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.

There sure is a price where AAPL is overvalued, but we're not near it now. Of course, a Market downturn will send AAPL down, only to rebound highly when it does. But, 2011 was a terrible year for AAPL Stock, and with the death of Steve, not to mention his resignation, and the ending the year with that misguided downturn (and fake "miss"), in reality, the Stock should have started 2012 at $500 if it weren't for the holdbacks all year.

Not to mention, Apple almost doubled its growth in 2011, while the Stock lagged big time, so It's just playing catchup.

Anything can happen, but focusing on fundamentals will always be the smartest move. There's your floor.

Just for the sake of argument, let's suppose Apple is expected to post EPS of $60 per share in its FY2013, from the non-cash assets that it has. At a P/E of 11x, and cash of $140 per share (it currently has ~$100)..... is that unreasonable?

I am, however, not disagreeing at all with you that expected returns going forward will be much lower than it has been in the past few years.

Surely you don't deny that people ARE idiots, and people ARE buying Apple now because of "the hype" aka greed. Right? I agree that it's not yet overvalued, that's why I'm still holding. But it's a lot closer to overvalued than it was at $400. If you can't fathom that there is a price at which Apple is overvalued, then you're just as helpless as all the other lemmings.

Yep, those are the kind of idiots who cause bubbles to happen. We may be in one now. You only know if it continues parabolic for a few more months. Then Apple's at $800. Overvalued.

Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...

Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...

Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.

Very much agreed. This is one reason that I feel "comfortable" buying AAPL.

I like to stick by a rule of Buying only companies I can follow and understand. I recently ignored that and bought some Haliburton based on the incredible fundamentals of that Stock and the Buy ratings out the wazoo. Big annoyance as now I remember as to why I don't like Buying stocks who's movements I can't put my finger on (it's been sideways for weeks now).

With AAPL, you have fundamentals, you have an understanding, and you can get a grasp of the near future and where your Stock will be, as long as basic expectations are met. Apple in 2 years from now will be a whole different story than Apple today. Today we have a lot of fruits of all the labor and incredible momentum the company has built panning out and accelerating, making this BY FAR the best company to own and invest in. In two years, people we will be seeing how a post-Steve era of innovation and maintenance is playing out. We aren't near that yet.

I will say it here: Considering no major Market downturns like we had last year (normal/par the course ones are fine, but I mean the two disastrous and untimely events that occurred last year and bogged the Markets down for a bit), *IT WOULDN'T BE FUNDAMENTALLY UNHEARD OF AT ALL* if AAPL doubles in Share price from its $400 start this year (again, remember, 2011 ended very manipulated-ly down and depressed for AAPL, giving about $100+ of 2012's upside simply making up for the BS levels 2011 ended at). I'm not saying that it WILL Happen, but I think that it's surely a possibility.

I bought 10 more Shares at $583. Been getting annoyed that I keep waiting to Buy more, but pass it up. Yeah, it could go down a bit next week (or it could go up next week) but I figured, it's just 10 Shares, $10 price differences are very little on the bottom line, I just wanted to add a little bit more.

This morning the Stock was flirting with $600, I put in the order at $582.99 not thinking that it would hit, but thinking that in the case there was a selloff after the $600 psychological point, it might.... I guess I was right, though, I missed the rock bottom of the day by $4 (that could have been an extra $40 to my upside!!!! ).

I bought 10 more Shares at $583. Been getting annoyed that I keep waiting to Buy more, but pass it up. Yeah, it could go down a bit next week (or it could go up next week) but I figured, it's just 10 Shares, $10 price differences are very little on the bottom line, I just wanted to add a little bit more.

This morning the Stock was flirting with $600, I put in the order at $582.99 not thinking that it would hit, but thinking that in the case there was a selloff after the $600 psychological point, it might.... I guess I was right, though, I missed the rock bottom of the day by $4 (that could have been an extra $40 to my upside!!!! ).

Bought my initial AAPL at $17 and change in 2003... been buying, after price drops, selling to take profits ever since -- some good, some bad decisions.

Actually. one of the reasons I like investing in AAPL is that there is so much information available -- Tim sneezes and his neighbor falls out of bed...

Seriously, Apple is always under a microscope so anyone who follows AAPL, who has a basic understanding of tech and business, can pretty much determine how the stock will perform in the next 6 months.

If that's actually true then there's no reason to expect Apple to outperform the market. If the whole market knows what to expect, why wouldn't those expectations already be priced into the stock? If EVERYONE expected Apple to be worth $800 based on $60 EPS, why wouldn't it be worth $800 today?

I bought 10 more Shares at $583. Been getting annoyed that I keep waiting to Buy more, but pass it up. Yeah, it could go down a bit next week (or it could go up next week) but I figured, it's just 10 Shares, $10 price differences are very little on the bottom line, I just wanted to add a little bit more.

This morning the Stock was flirting with $600, I put in the order at $582.99 not thinking that it would hit, but thinking that in the case there was a selloff after the $600 psychological point, it might.... I guess I was right, though, I missed the rock bottom of the day by $4 (that could have been an extra $40 to my upside!!!! ).

Buy is not a proper noun. Nor is Stock, or Sell. Or a few others you keep capitalizing...

If that's actually true then there's no reason to expect Apple to outperform the market. If the whole market knows what to expect, why wouldn't those expectations already be priced into the stock? If EVERYONE expected Apple to be worth $800 based on $60 EPS, why wouldn't it be worth $800 today?

The information is accessible...

That doesn't mean that "EVERYONE" knows it, understands it or is willing/able to act on it!

"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -

Some potential Apple announcements to bump the stock before WWDC/iOS 6/OS X Mountainlion:

New MBAs

This year is going to be quite exciting for Apple (the company, users, fanboys, shareholders, etc.) - the New iPad is just a preview of things to come.

I could see there being a new 15" MBA, as has been rumored.

I also predict that the MBP line will get "Retina" (4K) displays, to provide differentiation from the MBA and also to maintain higher ASPs. The extra thickness of the MPB (even if it ends up being thinner than the current version) will allow for a bigger battery to power these displays. We already know that Ivy Bridge will support 4K video, so this isn't as far-fetched as it might seem. It also seems that I'm not the only one hoping for this:

Along the same likes, I can also see a iMac refresh with 4K displays in the future, though this is probably more likely to happen next year once the cost of the larger 4K panels comes down.

Then there's the iPhone 5 being released later in the year. This will likely be a change in form factor, plus many iPhone 4 subscribers will be at the end of their contracts and ready to upgrade. Therefore big sales.

And don't forget the explosive growth in China, India, and other countries.

Sometimes I wonder how some of you guys have lived through being shareholders of anything with some of these "born yesterday" comments. Lol.

So, because AAPL is expected to get to $800.... They won't get to $800?

.... Wait, what?!

I assume you're talking about my comments?

I didn't say or imply what you suggest. If Apple is expected, by everyone, to get to $800, it will BE AT $800 tomorrow. Because if you knew something was going to be worth $800, wouldn't you buy all you could at $600? Thus the price rises quickly to the price everyone thinks it's worth.

The point is, despite the echo chamber that is this forum, there is plenty of disagreement about the future of Apple, and the fair price that everyone's votes add up to is $600. That could change, but only if Apple surprises some of the non-believers with more positive outcomes than they expect.

There are lots of things that could go wrong. Just read Apple's financial statements, they have a whole paragraph laying them out.

I just think there are so many amateurs (to investing) here that it's a dangerous situation for anyone holding the stock. In my experience with two crashes, once you start hearing from investing newcomers about how much of a sure thing a stock is, and how they need to pile in before they miss the boat, that's exactly the time to get really worried (and hedged).

Thing is, nothing is a "sure thing", but AAPL is a good fundamental bet. Nothing more, nothing less. Newcomer investors who want to invest in such a good fundamental story, are being smart. Simple as that.

Thing is, nothing is a "sure thing", but AAPL is a good fundamental bet. Nothing more, nothing less. Newcomer investors who want to invest in such a good fundamental story, are being smart. Simple as that.

Exactly. So if you do your research and you find that Apple is worth more than $600, you should buy. But if you're just reading a message board where a bunch of admitted Apple fans are talking about how great of a stock that is, its important to note that you're not in a place where anyone is going to mention the reasons why you might not want to buy the stock. Or the people who do mention it don't get patted on the back but get shouted down. And researching both the ups and the downs of any investment is smart before you make the jump.

Of course, and agreed. Of course there are downsides, as there can be anywhere, however I think it's clear that the pro's heavily outweigh the cons, and even with this great run-up, AAPL is still heavily undervalued.... and the catalysts to move the stock up in 2012 itself are terrific. That's why people will argue that the downsides to AAPL SHOULD be very limited, however, when talking about where a stock will go, it's always technically hypothesizing.