The National Hurricane Center has named a disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico “Potential Tropical Cyclone Two” in anticipation for further development over the next two days.

According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Barry is expected to form by Thursday night over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Storm surge and tropical storm watches have been issued and heavy rainfall is expected in some areas.

At 10:00 p.m., the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph. A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the NW U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #2: Soon-to-be #Barry. Has the potential to bring tropical storm conditions by late Thursday / Friday into Louisiana. A (strengthening) hurricane at landfall is possible in the NW Gulf into the weekend. Keep it here to the WINK for updates! pic.twitter.com/HqymHvlXBs

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.

Formation chance through 48 hours is high, near 100 percent

Formation chance through 5 days is high, near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

Watches & Warnings

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.