Completely up in the air. The Republicans have pro-choice big business friendly Ron Saxton, the Democrats have incompetent incumbent Teddy K, there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot, the Constitution Party has a solid candidate in Marry Starrett (Portland TV & Radio personality), the Libertarians have 2004 Sec. of State Candidate Richard Morley (Very smart, able to explain the Libertarian philosophy well), and the Greens have J. Keating (Typical burnt out Liberal).

The Governor's Mansion is completely up for grabs, and it is likely to be at least a three way race with Saxton, Teddy K, and Westlund. That said, Starrett is picking up steam, and if Saxton screws up the Conservative vote may well completely be up for grabs making her a series player.

Morley and Keating are 5% men, though Morley is very good, most of his constituency will go to Westlund.

It will be an interesting race for spectators, but as a person who is in the middle of it, who knows the players involved, it is even more fascinating.

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“We can never be too tardy to begin the work of blood.”“But it is a bad mode of settling disputes to make soldiers your ambassadors, and to point to the halter and the gallows as your ultimatum.”-John Tyler, 10th President of the United States

there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least. Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

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“We can never be too tardy to begin the work of blood.”“But it is a bad mode of settling disputes to make soldiers your ambassadors, and to point to the halter and the gallows as your ultimatum.”-John Tyler, 10th President of the United States

there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least. Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?

22% is what happened. The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.

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“We can never be too tardy to begin the work of blood.”“But it is a bad mode of settling disputes to make soldiers your ambassadors, and to point to the halter and the gallows as your ultimatum.”-John Tyler, 10th President of the United States

22% is what happened. The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.

I see. I didn't follow the OR primary since I was too busy with PA results. I remember looking into the OR candidates earlier in the year though and thought Atkinson would be the best. For whatever reason, I thought he might have dropped out.

Alaska from D --> R: It looks like Murkowski is going to lose the primary. A Republican who is not hated in the state will have a much better chance. But this race remains very close and Knowles has a good chance.

Illinois from R --> D: Blagojevich sucks and I hate him, but he's doing slightly better in the polls now and looks to be a slight favorite. However, he's still doing badly and isn't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.

Maine from R --> D: Baldacci isn't in the terrible shape that we originally thought. He should win.

Michigan from D --> R: I didn't believe Granholm was in really serious trouble until a DeVos took the lead. Clearly DeVos would win if the election was held today, but it isn't going to be held today, so Granholm is still breathing. DeVos doesn't really fit that state well, and if Granholm can exploit that she can still salvage the victory. But DeVos has to be the slight favorite at this point.

Rhode Island from R --> D: Carcieri is in serious trouble. I don't exactly know why; my theory is that it's that medical marijuana bill he vetoed. The race is pretty much tied now, but I'll give it to Fogarty at this point due to the general anti-GOP nature of 2006.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are too close to call now. I left them with the incumbents until further notice.

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I wanna contribute to the chaosI don't wanna watch and then complain,'cause I am through finding blamethat is the decision that I have made

Um, is that supposed to be a response to me? I'm not sure. In any event, you might be implying that Wisconsin and Iowa are more Republican on the Presidential level than Michigan and Minnesota, which is true, but it would seem the Democrats have a better chance in the Governor's races this year in Wisconsin and Iowa than they do in Michigan and Minnesota (although I personally feel at least 3 of the 4 will go Democratic, and quite possibly all 4).

“We can never be too tardy to begin the work of blood.”“But it is a bad mode of settling disputes to make soldiers your ambassadors, and to point to the halter and the gallows as your ultimatum.”-John Tyler, 10th President of the United States

The race in Minnesota is neck and neck. The last few polls have showed Hatch with a lead or a dead heat.

The most recent poll put Pawlenty (R) and Hatch (DFL) at a dead heat, but also gave Klobuchar a 7 point lead over Kennedy, the narrowest lead since July, so I have reason to think that this poll gave Republicans a 1-2% advantage.

The governor's race in MN will mostly be determined by GOTV.. the Democrats are fired up statewide, but because we have so many close races in the state, the Republicans will also be fired up. Minnesota will have a very high turnout rate for this election, and it's going to go to either Pawlenty or Hatch with a very slim lead. My guess would something like 50-48% for Hatch.

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"Marcia Timmel said: "I'm so small and the darkness is so great." We must light a candle."

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