Skewed Left

Farewell to Nick Johnson

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

“I see him more as Jim Thome without the fashion statement.”– BP Annual, 1999

“Johnson is the best prospect in baseball, a ranking very difficult for a first baseman to achieve.” – BP Annual, 2000

“He'll likely end up as a cross between John Olerud and Barry Bonds. I think most Yankees fans can live with that, even if it takes him a few years to get there.” – BP Annual, 2002

“The ball jumps off his bat. He has amazing control of the strike zone. He's still potentially one of the best hitters in all of baseball.” – BP Annual, 2004

“After years of speculation and anticipation, at long last we now know what a full season from Nick Johnson looks like, and it was everything we thought it could be, and more.” – BP Annual, 2006

Nick Johnson announced his retirement this week and somewhat surprisingly so, though it was clear the Yankees wanted to move on after Johnson finally showed signs of aging in 2012. Johnson, just 34, had played his entire 12-year career with the Yankees, winning World Series championships in 2006 and 2009. He retires a few accolades short of a chance at the Hall of Fame, though not as far as some more traditional statistics might show. His patience at the plate was an enormous asset, as he five times topped 100 walks and highlighted battles of attrition against Mark Teixeira’s uber-patient Red Sox. Most of all, he was known for being a portrait of good health, his streak of 987 consecutive games played being terminated only by his 2007 suspension for the famous incident involving umpire Tim McClelland, a chewed piece of bubble gum, and some misplaced groundskeeping equipment. He played regularly until 2012, when his performance started to suffer for the first time, and he hung up his spikes and his impeccable eye. Johnson will likely retire to several offers to continue his baseball life as an instructor.

The alternate ending is pretty nice, isn’t it? Instead, reality’s take on Johnson’s retirement was different, as it came out with barely a whisper this week, most adulation presumably replaced among casual fans with “didn’t know he was still playing.”

Olerud and Bonds would have been tremendous comps, one player to whom every first baseman should aspire in an all-around sense and one unreachable star. But there are bygone wishes closer to home at his position with the team that raised him. He should have been as valuable as his almost immediate predecessors, Tino Martinez at worst and Don Mattingly more ambitiously. (Only speaking in terms of value; there was an entirely different skill breakdown therein with Johnson much more a true outcomes guy than Mattingly.)

What he turned into was yet another Yankees first baseman, one whom history would largely forget if not for his deflowering of the DH position. Johnson was basically, after all that hype as an elite prospect, Ron Blomberg.

It was a comparison floated by former Baseball Prospectus honcho Steven Goldman in 2003 at Pinstriped Bible, and it has proven true 10 years later as Johnson steps into retirement after playing just 233 games in his last six years.

Among players with 500 or more plate appearances who started their careers after 1950, there have been just 26 more like Johnson who had a true average of .290 or better yet never reached 4,000 plate appearances. (They’re all here if you’d like to see them.) Some started late or flamed out early, but injuries were a huge factor in a list that capped its members at six or seven full seasons at the most.

Atop the list, it’s the Designated Hebrew himself, as Blomberg hit for a .312 TAv but was able to compile only 1,493 plate appearances because of an awful injury history.

Johnson’s medical chart, the thing for which he will unfortunately be most remembered, is almost beyond comprehension. These injuries archived in our player cards include spring training days missed but not time before his major league career, so don’t forget the 2000 wrist injury that cost him the season and set the initial conditions for a career of unfulfilled potential.

And this is what that looks like visually. Between injuries, there were some good times. In 2005 and 2006 for the Nationals, he compiled 9.1 wins above replacement player, but it was a sad tale from there as the serious injuries picked up—four that cost him more than 100 days apiece. One BP Annual threw an Elijah Price comp on him, alluding to Samuel L. Jackson’s anti-title character of the movie Unbreakable.

It all came to an end with a subpar 38 games in Baltimore last season before the wrist just became too much, and this week, according to WFAN, he called it a night. Sadly for those who care about such things, the last gasp of his professional career caused his OBP—his greatest measurement of achievement—to fall below .400, finally resting at .399.

His retirement gift, one would hope, will be a lifetime of good health, as his were baseball injuries, not the plagues of concussions or chronic hip problems or the like. And from us, an appreciation of just what he could contribute when he was able to put on the uniform.

“Brian Cashman approached Nick Johnson like a game of "Minesweeper," figuring that every possible injury square on the board had been uncovered. Surprise—Johnson has nothing but injury squares.” – BP Annual, 2011

“After his second straight season with wrist issues, the perennially unhealthy Nick Johnson may decide to hang up his spikes for good. Once a prospect lauded for his patience and bat, Johnson's days as a big leaguer may be over.” – BP Annual, 2012

And yet their downfalls were very different. Johnson's "Achilles' Heel" was fairly literal. Durazo would get on a hot streak, using the whole park and the whole strike zone, and then start to believe the hype and begin swinging for the fences on every pitch. Once the resultant slump set in, he would start to get back to doing things the right way again. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Too bad about Johnson. I always enjoyed watching him hit. The Yanks got burned on the deal with the Expos for Javy Vazquez long before Johnny Damon's Grand Slam hit the seats. Johnson, Juan Rivera (welcome home?) and Randy Choate also went to the defunct Expos in the Vazquez deal. Seemed like fair value at the time...At least he nailed a few million and had a few good years before he was forced to pack it in...Best of luck Nick...It had to be frustrating trying to hit in pain...

The perennial speculation in which so many of us engaged to our (almost) continuing entertainment (and disappointment)- will Nick Johnson have a season commensurate with his talent?- is now ended. Sad to find that, in the final year, he allowed (if that is the word?) his headline counting stat- OBP-to dip below .400. It just wasn't meant to be, I guess. At least the guy made $30 million from baseball, all told- not bad for a man in his early 30's with most of his life ahead of him. I wonder if he now becomes a "Go To" batting coach? So long, Nick.

Nick Johnson was never bad so it's not like he was a forecasting bust or didn't produce. He was just horrible at staying healthy. As the BP Annual said in 2010 about Nick, staying healthy is also a skill/tool.

It was AA, but I will never forget watching Nick "the Stick" compile that line in 1999. For a fan still missing Mattingly, Johnson represented so many dreams of home grown first base greatness in pinstripes . . . alas, it would never be. I have always wondered, if he had not hurt his wrist in 2000, would the Yankees have signed Giambi after 2001, and how different baseball would have been.