What to expect when you’re expecting Microsoft to announce the next Xbox

What we know, what we think we know, and what we probably won't know for a while.

When Microsoft officially announces the next Xbox tomorrow, it will have been 2,932 days since the company last unveiled a new video game console. In those eight years and 10 days, Sony and Nintendo have combined to unveil six pieces of hardware across the home and portable markets. Apple and Google have revolutionized the mobile phone and gaming markets with iOS and Android. Microsoft itself has even gone through three PC and two mobile operating system launches.

So it's fair to say that the pressure is on to make the follow-up to the Xbox 360 as much of a durable and long-lasting product as its predecessor. Here's a primer on what to expect and what not to expect from Microsoft's big event tomorrow.

Price and release date

It's hard to remember now, but Microsoft's star-studded Xbox 360 reveal event in May of 2005 didn't actually mention anything about the system's price or release date. That information didn't come out until August of that year. The safe money is on Microsoft holding these crucial details close to its chest again this time around, at least for the time being.

That said, 2013 is a bit different from 2005 for one major reason: Sony. The PS3 was still largely a pipe dream when the Xbox 360 was unveiled, but this year Sony has already been hyping its competing system for months. Beating Sony to the punch with a price point and specific release date could make Microsoft's console seem a little more real than Sony's system, which the press has yet to play or even see in the form of a plastic shell. Then again, an early reveal gives consumers more of a chance to whine about the system being too expensive and too far away. It's a double-edged sword.

Until an official announcement, we're stuck with the speculation about the price, which ranges from Paul Thurrot's suggestion of a $500 system with a subscription discount to last year's supposed Microsoft leak pointing to a $299 system. As for a launch date, you can bet your bottom dollar it will be on store shelves before Thanksgiving here in the US.

Hardware specs

For a system that doesn't officially exist, we have a surprising amount of alleged information about the hardware inside the next Xbox. Multiplereportspoint to an AMD eight-core x64 1.6GHz CPU, an 800 Mhz GPU that supports Direct3D 11.x, and 8GB of DDR3 RAM. Other leaks point to a Blu-ray disc drive and dedicated processors for things like video compression and 7.1 surround sound.

And let's not forget about that Microsoft patent for a scalable, modular hardware system that would easily allow for multiple versions of the system with different capabilities. Then there are thereports that the system will include a direct hookup for a cable box or satellite dish, allowing for integration with the world of live TV through more than just Internet apps.

Don't be shocked if Microsoft uses tomorrow's event to highlight the raw horsepower of its upcoming hardware more than specific software. Even if the company doesn't discuss specific numbers as much, you can bet they'll take great pains to show off just how many more polygons and particles and lighting effects its new system can display. Still, we'd be surprised if things like Ultra HD support or stereoscopic 3D were a major focus.

Controllers

Considering how much we know about the supposed internals of Microsoft's next system, we know surprisingly little about how the Xbox 360 controller will evolve. The best information I've heard is that the new controller will incorporate some sort of touchpad, possibly built on top of a standard, clickable d-pad, but that information is far from reliable.

We've heard more about the widely expected follow-up to the Kinect, which could actually be required to use the new system, according to at least one report. That new motion sensor will apparently increase the resolution of both the depth-sensing and RGB cameras and track up to six players with more articulation than the original Kinect.

Then there are the touchscreen controllers you already carry in your pocket or bag. Expect the next Xbox to put an increased focus on the smartphone and tablet integration Microsoft introduced to the Xbox 360 last year as Smartglass. We expect a big focus on being able to interact with the new system through these touchscreen devices even when away from home.

Software

While playing games is the whole point of new console hardware, there's some reason to believe that tomorrow's event will focus more on pure hardware features rather than major new game announcements. For one, Microsoft needs to save something for the press conference it's still planning on putting on the day before E3 starts, which is less than three weeks away. For another, Microsoft is currently scheduling press meetings for seven (count 'em!) currently unannounced titles at its E3 booth. It seems unlikely that it would blow all those announcements in a one-hour presentation that's meant to display its new system for the first time.

All that said, we wouldn't be surprised if there were at least one or two big software announcements tomorrow just to whet everyone's appetites. A teaser for a new Halo game seems like a surefire crowd-pleaser, and a new franchise that shows off the potential of a new Kinect also seems like a relatively safe bet. We also wouldn't be shocked if Microsoft brings out a major publisher like Activision or EA to talk about how excited they are for this new hardware and then highlight some exclusive content they'll be bringing to the new Xbox.

’Net connections and used games

Judging by Internet comments, this may be the most important question to be answered tomorrow. Reports that Microsoft's next system will use some method to block the play of used games have been circulating for more than a year now, and in recent months those rumors have centered ona requiredInternet connection to enforce that blockage, along with one-time installs for disc-based games. Let's not forget about the tweeted suggestion to "deal with it" ("It" being a supposed online requirement) that led to the termination of former Microsoft Studios creative director Adam Orth.

Given all that build-up, it was a bit surprising when Ars received word from an insider source about a Microsoft memo suggesting that things like playing single-player games, watching Blu-ray movies, and playing live TV through the next Xbox should "just work," even when the system is offline. We stand by that report and think it largely overrules all the rumors that came before it (and it gels with a recent rumor that DRM decisions will be left up to publishers).

That doesn't mean Microsoft hadn't been planning a different, more online-dependent strategy previously. The fact that Sony has largely dispelled rumors of any always-online or used-game-blocking capabilities for its system suggests a less restrictive move by Microsoft. Here at Ars, we've long thought that this kind of move could only work if both Microsoft and Sony moved in the same direction at the same time.

NeXtBox: 1,000,000 to 1, and you also get to punch me square in the face (it will distract me from the utter stupidity of the console's name)

And the rest…

Microsoft community manager Larry "Major Nelson" Hryb poked some fun at Sony for not showing off the actual console shell at its February PS4 event. Expect Microsoft to at least show a prototype of what the system will look like tomorrow.

The main announcement portion of tomorrow's event is scheduled to last just one hour, clocking in much shorter than the two-hour or so PS4 unveiling.

The press has been promised an opportunity to "get up close and personal with the new generation via interactive experiences." This suggests some brief hands-on time, but it could also refer to an interactive paintball tournament or something. We just don't know!

All indications are that this event was originally planned for April. Hopefully the delay will lend more substance to tomorrow's announcements.

Kyle Orland / Kyle is the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica, specializing in video game hardware and software. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He is based in the Washington, DC area.