John Boehner's big bet: Obama will cave

If the let-the-cuts-happen approach on the sequester seems risky — especially with President Barack Obama blaming Republicans for everything from kids not getting vaccines to long lines at the airport — the alternative for Boehner is worse.

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Jump-start negotiations with Obama, and he would be slammed for engaging in out-of-sight, secret talks with a president his party doesn’t trust. Raise taxes, and Boehner’s courting trouble in his conference and endangering his speakership. Both are simply nonstarters.

Unlike previous fiscal fights, House Republicans feel like they are in a good political position on this one.

They passed a bill last Congress that replaced the sequester cuts, and are considering another bill in the coming weeks that would do the same. They are standing firm against more tax increases — all poll-tested positions.

Leading Republicans are betting — perhaps badly — that the $85 billion in sequester cuts set to take effect on Friday won’t tank markets and the public won’t immediately feel the impact.

And, for once, the GOP is buffeted by its unpopularity: House Republicans kept their majority with mid-teen approval ratings after two years of political warfare. They aren’t spooked that their numbers will move any lower.

So Boehner’s posture is a calculated risk. The speaker hopes Obama will be seen as constantly campaigning, exaggerating the sequester’s impact — and that eventually the president will be forced back to the bargaining table when the Republicans prove they won’t budge. It’s a message Boehner will take to the “CBS Evening News” on Tuesday, when he is interviewed by Scott Pelley.

“The president says we have to have another tax increase in order to avoid the sequester,” Boehner said during a six-minute press availability Monday. “Well, Mr. President, you got your tax increase. It’s time to cut spending here in Washington.”

Of course, it’s easy to see the flip side of Boehner’s strategy. In Democrats’ view, he has little room to maneuver: no revenue, only spending cuts.

Also, the position Boehner has staked out sets up a scenario in which the House will be wooed to accept a potential bipartisan Senate compromise.

But for now, Boehner’s thinking, as described by those close to him and involved in Republican strategy, is multifaceted and represents not only external political calculations but sensitivity to the internal politics of his tax-obsessed conference.

The speaker agreed to a tax hike just a few months ago — days later, 12 of his Republican colleagues voted against his reelection as speaker. Sure, aides realize that they will get pressured privately by a handful of Republicans to accept tax increases to head off the sequester, but such pleas won’t move Boehner. Starting off this new session of Congress by hiking taxes again would be akin to political suicide for the Ohio Republican.

Still, Republicans expect they’ll find a way out. Top aides and lawmakers say that, if they have their way, the across-the-board slashes will eventually be replaced with other cuts, but that might not happen until late spring or summer. Republicans are aiming for an eventual package that will include a hefty dose of spending cuts and reforms like a change to calculating government benefits called chained CPI and closing a few tax loopholes.