Does the Slipper Fit? Finding Cinderella

When looking for possible upsets to pencil in the bracket, there are multiple sets of metrics to sort through. I prefer the KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency rankings when making the decision on what upsets are most likely. Of course, this tournament is so unpredictable and that’s what makes it fantastic.

I have compiled data on the 12-15 seed upsets for the last 7 years to give you a little more information to find Cinderella. Last year, the only “upset” was MTSU over Minnesota in a 12/5.

(Note: O-EF is offensive efficiency, D-EF is defensive efficiency, DOG is the underdog’s added rankings, and FAV is the favorite’s added rankings).

2017

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 MTSU

55

47

5 Minnesota

81

18

102

99

2016

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 Yale

92

21

5 Baylor

13

72

113

85

12 UALR

85

35

5 Purdue

21

18

120

39

13 Hawaii

105

41

4 California

47

15

146

62

14 SF Austin

65

29

3 WVU

23

6

94

29

15 MTSU

197

71

2 Michigan St

2

19

268

21

2015

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

14 Georgia St

56

102

3 Baylor

13

32

158

45

14 UAB

129

128

3 Iowa State

7

82

257

89

2014

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 Harvard

47

34

5 Cincinnati

110

8

81

118

12 SF Austin

38

102

5 VCU

107

6

140

113

12 NDSU

29

131

5 Oklahoma

16

91

160

107

14 Mercer

76

119

3 Duke

2

116

195

118

2013

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 Oregon

94

10

5 Ok State

68

15

104

83

12 Ole Miss

31

63

5 Wisconsin

108

1

94

109

14 Harvard

73

145

3 New Mexico

53

18

218

71

15 FGCU

104

109

2 G’Town

78

2

213

80

12 Cal

100

38

5 UNLV

135

11

138

146

13 LaSalle

36

99

4 Kansas St

15

56

135

71

2012

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 VCU

102

19

5 Wichita St

14

31

121

45

15 Lehigh

71

102

2 Duke

10

81

173

91

15 Norfolk St

181

177

2 Missouri

1

146

358

147

12 S. Florida

169

4

5 Temple

27

104

173

130

13 Ohio

88

40

4 Michigan

19

61

128

80

2011

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 Richmond

36

59

5 Vandy

12

129

95

141

13 Morehead St

117

73

4 Louisville

55

3

190

58

Let’s look at some trends since 2011:

*There have been 25 such upsets in the last seven years…so pick at least 3-4 in your bracket if you want to live a little.

*20 of 25 upsets included teams with an offensive or defensive efficiency outside of the Top 50. In 2017, Minnesota’s offensive efficiency was outside of the Top 50.

*Of the 25 upsets, 22 of the teams had a combined ranking of 225 or less.

*Only three of the upsets featured lower-seeded teams with an offensive or defensive efficiency ranking outside the Top 150.

*The last six upsets, the 12-15s were more efficient on defense than offense.

2018 Efficiency Ratings

2018

O-EF

D-EF

O-EF

D-EF

DOG

FAV

12 Davidson

18

115

5 Kentucky

25

23

133

48

12 S. Dakota St

41

148

5 Ohio State

27

16

189

43

12 Murray St

56

82

5 WVU

14

39

138

53

12 New Mex St

116

14

5 Clemson

48

8

130

56

13 Buffalo

42

138

4 Arizona

15

70

180

85

13 UNCG

164

30

4 Gonzaga

12

17

194

29

13 Marshall

96

144

4 Wichita St

5

107

240

108

13 Charleston

87

167

4 Auburn

16

44

254

60

14 Wright St

248

53

3 Tennessee

40

4

301

44

14 Montana

82

65

3 Michigan

29

5

147

34

14 SF Austin

177

67

3 Texas Tech

46

3

244

49

14 Bucknell

99

112

3 Michigan St

9

9

211

18

15 Georgia St

101

106

2 Cincinnati

54

2

207

56

15 Lipscomb

197

131

2 UNC

4

34

328

38

15 CS Fullerton

176

134

2 Purdue

2

28

310

30

15 Iona

80

212

2 Duke

3

7

292

10

Two matchups feature higher seeds with at least one sub Top 50 efficiency rating and lower seeds with a combined ranking of 225 or less.

13 Buffalo vs 4 Arizona
15 Georgia St vs 2 Cincinnati

Most Likely Upsets (one per line)

12 New Mexico St vs. 5 Clemson

This one is going to be a defensive battle, as both teams are in the Top 15 in defensive efficiency. Clemson has played pretty well since Grantham went out, but I like the Aggies in an upset here.

13 Marshall vs 4 Wichita St

I may be in the minority here, but I don’t think Wichita is that good. They are 107th in defensive efficiency, and Marshall is red hot. This one wouldn’t surprise me.

14 Montana vs. 3 Michigan

Michigan is a popular Elite 8/Final 4 team, and Bilas/Greenberg/Williams all have them going that far. According to the rankings, Montana is the 4th strongest team on the 12-15 lines. The Grizzlies have won 19 of 21.

15 Georgia State vs. 2 Cincinnati

When teams struggle to score, they can be ripe for an upset. This one fits the bill with the recipe for an upset with Georgia State under 225 in combined ranking, and Cincinnati’s 54th ranked offense.