View full sizeRoss William Hamilton/The OregonianDucks running back Kenjon Barner should benefit from an increased workload this season, so much so that he might be in contention for the Heisman Trophy.

Spring football starts next week, which means it's the ideal
time to discuss Heisman Trophy hopefuls. No, it wasn't my idea, but the fine
folks at Heisman Pundit do such a good job that when the link made the rounds
yesterday, I set aside work a while to ponder the possibilities.

The title is "Twelve Players Whose Numbers Could Explode in
2012," and yep, two Oregon Ducks are included. Kenjon Barner, the man who will
replace LaMichael James at running back, is a natural choice, and to some, so
is the versatile and electric De'Anthony Thomas.

Can't go wrong with either, as far as I'm concerned. As to
the viability, however, I wanted to see what the past winners had done, hoping
to ascertain some sort of crude projection of what might be necessary in order
to hoist college football's most coveted individual trophy.

In the past 40 years, pure running backs – Nebraska's Johnny
Rodgers was the recipient in 1972, rushing 58 times and hauling in 55 catches -
have won the Heisman 19 times. That's actually 18 different winners – Ohio
State's Archie Griffin was a repeat honoree in 1974 and 1975.

The average season turned in by those 18 winners? Try 294
carries for 1,870 yards and 20 touchdowns.

Incidentally, James' sophomore season was pretty close - 294 attempts for 1,731 yards and 24 touchdowns - and he finished third in voting.

In 2009, Alabama's Mark Ingram (271
carries, school-record 1,658 yards and 17 touchdowns) finished shy of all of
those benchmarks, but he was also the most potent weapon the Crimson Tide
possessed en route to an undefeated season and national title.

So, statistics obviously matter, but team success does, too.
However, for these purposes, that element has been eliminated – let's just say
I'm projecting the Ducks to remain prominent, essentially Rose Bowl or bust.
And if that happens, the offense will likely remain dynamic, which means Barner
and/or Thomas is being productive.

In a limited sample in 2011, Barner was terrific. He carried
152 times for 939 yards and 11 touchdowns. With another 150 carries, as the
case might be this season, who's to say Barner can't eclipse 2,000 yards, which
would be very difficult for voters to ignore?

But he might face stiff competition from Thomas, who should
have an expanded role. Employing more of an all-purpose role for the Ducks, DAT
– as a freshman – was 11th in the country in that category. His 55
rushes for 595 yards and seven touchdowns were impressive enough, but then his
46 receptions for 605 yards and nine touchdowns? And don't forget about his 36
kickoff returns for 983 yards and two scores, either.

Heisman voters haven't chosen anyone like Thomas before.
Southern California's Reggie Bush wasn't the special teams star that DAT is.
The two wide receivers who have won – Michigan's Desmond Howard in 1991 and
Notre Dame's Tim Brown in 1987 – didn't have any rushing numbers to speak of,
although Howard's 19 receiving touchdowns and Brown's 34 punt returns for 401
yards and three touchdowns certainly catch the eye.

Believe it or not, Thomas might be most comparable to Michigan
two-way star Charles Woodson. The 1997 winner was a wild card, great wherever
he lined up. He scored touchdowns as a runner, a receiver and as a punt
returner – but not as a cornerback. All he did there was intercept eight passes
that season, when the Wolverines won the national championship.