Fantasy Football Rankings 2011: The 50 Least Risky Players

I'm sure most of you diehard fantasy footballers out there still have a draft or two left on your schedule or maybe you still haven't done one at all.

With the lockout, I'm seeing more and more fantasy football drafts getting pushed to the beginning of September, and it's never too late to refresh yourself with some new information.

My focus here was to find the top 50 players that I've gotten the best read on. In other words, I feel supremely confident in the value I've put on them and expect minimal fluctuation in value from them as the season progresses.

Few of these players have a history of severe injuries, off-the-field issues or inconsistent play on the field. So if you're looking to build a team where you know what you're gonna get, week in and week out, look no further than this list.

50. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

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ESPN Ranking: 96th Overall

The beauty in Nelson is that you won't have to draft him until the 10th round and beyond in some leagues. He's flying under the radar because a third-string receiver typically isn't looked at as a viable option to play for your fantasy team. Don't be so shortsighted though.

Nelson may just break into the starting lineup as Donald Driver continues to look frail at the age of 36. Whether or not he does start by midseason, the Packers will mix in a lot of three and four receiver packages to give Nelson some opportunities to produce.

49. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

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ESPN Ranking: 44th Overall

In 2011, Green-Ellis largely benefited from a Patriots offense that was often near the goal line. I don't expect that to change this season, and he'll have a change to produce another double-digit touchdown season.

You may see some risk here if you were fooled by Laurence Maroney a few seasons ago, but the "Law Firm" is here to stay, and he's clearly the best runner that the Patriots have, although he won't be in on many third downs and long.

48. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams

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ESPN Ranking: 98th Overall

There is no better year to target a young quarterback than their sophomore season. They're typically flying way under the radar and will likely put up exceptionally better numbers than in the previous season.

Bradford now has a healthier and more talented supporting cast so I would expect him to make a Josh Freeman type leap, and you'll only have to spend a late-round pick on him.

45. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

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ESPN Ranking: 40th Overall

This season, Maclin will presumably have Michael Vick at quarterback for the bulk of the season, barring injury. Last year, the Kevin Kolb saga interrupted what could have been a stellar year for Maclin.

This year, Maclin may start off a little slow because he's been battling a viral illness, but he's one of the best red-zone threats that you'll be able to find at the bottom of the third and into the fourth rounds.

44. Shonn Greene, New York Jets

Last year, Shonn Greene was unexpectedly overcome by the veteran back, LaDainian Tomlinson, and he wasn't able to win back the starting job or step into a role as the team's goal-line back.

This season, things will change. Tomlinson has aged and was only a shadow of himself near the end of the season. That means that even if Greene isn't handed the starting job, he will be getting the majority of the carries by the time Fantasy Playoffs are in full swing.

43. Mario Manningham, New York Giants

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ESPN Ranking: 59th Overall

If last year's ending was any indication of what's to come for Manningham, you'll be getting an elite player in the sixth round.

This is a very low-risk proposition because the Giants will be passing almost exclusively to the receivers with Kevin Boss gone, and the more chances the Giants give Manningham to impress them, the more likely it is that he will have a breakout season.

37. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

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ESPN Ranking: 19th Overall

Despite constant concerns about his health, Jackson never missed a game last season and was a solid starter week in and week out. It's easy to foresee some loss in production from Jackson, but I expect him to do exceed the performance he put up last season.

I'm putting a lot of faith in the Rams offense to improve, but I don't think that's much of a reach at all and if they do, Jackson will be getting the goal-line opportunities.

32. Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos

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ESPN Ranking: 45th Overall

When I thought Tim Tebow would be the starting quarterback for the Broncos, I was genuinely concerned about Lloyd's value, but that saga has passed, and it seems as if the Broncos will head into the season with Kyle Orton at quarterback.

22. Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins

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ESPN Ranking: 65th Overall

Three touchdowns is way less than we're used to seeing from Marshall, but we can attribute most of his statistical shortcomings to the quarterback play in Miami. But don't lose any hope because Marshall has looked fantastic in the preseason.

It's possible that he just needed to get up to speed with quarterback Chad Henne, but whatever the issue was, I expect it to be resolved, and Marshall to put up a huge year and you're only going to use a mid-round pick on him, so why not take advantage of his low stock.

15. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

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ESPN Ranking: Eighth Overall

Jones-Drew's 2010 campaign was a time of mixed feelings. He started out slow—presumably due to a knee injury—and didn't catch fire until midseason. He surpassed the century mark on the ground for six straight games and was on fire heading into the fantasy playoffs.

That's when he re-injured his knee and was forced to have surgery.

However, I doubt that he'll show signs of rust, and he'll likely go back to his old ways of double-digit touchdown scoring.

14. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

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ESPN Ranking: 46th Overall

For the past two seasons, Schaub has been healthy and productive, clearly the two keys to being a safe fantasy pick.

When Owen Daniels is healthy, Schaub has been a much better quarterback, and believe it or not, Daniels is now healthy and ready to help Schaub return to his 2009 form—when he led the league in yards and posted a career-high 98.6 passer rating.

With Matthew Stafford returning to the starting lineup, Calvin Johnson now has an exceptionally talented quarterback. It's not too much to expect Johnson to best his 2010 season, when he caught 12 touchdowns.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

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ESPN Ranking: Seventh Overall

You had to be kidding yourself if you thought the reigning Super Bowl champ wouldn't be this high on the list. While Rodgers did miss the team's Week 15 matchup with New England in 2010, he came back improved.

He was on fire during the playoffs, and his ability to utilize all of his weapons was a joy to watch.

If you draft Rodgers, you'll enjoy watching him pick apart defenses even more.

5. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Rivers hasn't had a particularly strong core of receivers in San Diego, but he's still put up exceptional fantasy numbers. Vincent Jackson nearly missed the entire 2010 season and likely put the Chargers out of the playoffs.

With Jackson back, the sky's the limit for this offense. Actually, I think the sky would constrain this offense.

We'll say that the exosphere is the limit for what Rivers can do with the NFL's No. 1 offense.