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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

What fate for Qaddafi?

Well, it seems tonight that the fate of Qaddafi regime is sealed. The Eastern part of the country seems irremediably lost and the regime has trouble to even mark its presence in Tripoli. The streets are rife with rumors of mercenaries, which might be true or not but which indicate that the general belief is that the only people left with Qaddafi are his family and those that will be punished in the future Libya.
All comparisons with another country near you are for you to make, but I can assure you one thing is that if the country I have in mind keeps going on we might not need to wait for ten years to have a spontaneous insurrection here to.

So what will be the fate of Qaddafi?

Now the the UN security council has voted a strong resolution, it is clear that he is on his way to the Hague tribunal sooner than later. I am not sure that even Saudi Arabia would receive him. He has only Iran or Sudan as options if he escapes alive from Libya. Because in my mind, considering how many people have been active collaborators of the Qaddafi ruthless tyranny I am afraid that his end will be a Ceausescu type of end. If you remember Commie Romania, it was perhaps the worst country in Eastern Europe where only close collaborators of the regime could put an end to it. Knowing full well what their fate would be in a post Ceausescu country, be they sent speedily the Ceausescus to the firing squad as an atonement. The shock and relief of the citizens was such that no major purge followed even though it was sorely needed.

The violence of Libya this week is a witness of the awful degradation of the country after 40+years of a mad man at the helm, duly enabled by all sorts of countries or people (through drugs or contracts, same difference). So many people have been oppressing so many people that a massive and quickie atonement measure can avoid a major, major bloodshed. The skin of Qaddafi and some of his nefarious sons could well do it. Qaddafi speech today might hint that he knows that this will be his fate and he is trying to make it a martyrdom of sorts. But after ordering your planes to bomb your citizens, there is no Che historical outcome for Muammar.

PS: as for the coward enablers in the West for Libya oil access, the Tony Blair and Sylvio Berlusconi and other pals, I will hope that an excuse is forthcoming fast with a resolve never to let such regimes prosper again. At least for once the US is sort of off the hook, as the only country that actively bombed the Jamahiriya and who was among the very last to finally reestablish relations with the regime.

PS2: do you know that a very lose translation of Jamahiriya is Consejos Comunales? there you go......

It's easy to condemn, all it costs is a few words and a piece of paper. I'd like to see ACTION. That's the problem with the UN and the OAS and similar institutions, they lack the actual AUTHORITY to carry out something substantial and meaningful about the things they condemn.

The UN condemnation will do nothing to stop the current massacre. However it eases the path to The Hague at some point. And it is a first step for a Kossovo like intervention. You just need a few hundred more people killed.

"With extraordinary economic mismanagement he has been able to squander a great deal of Libya's extraordinary wealth and this has led to a stagnant economy and severe poverty. A country that is one of the world's biggest oil and gas producers is riddled with chronic shortages, a lack of infrastructure basic and almost no economic activity outside the energy sector."

First of all, hold on, we're not there yet - this guy is going to fight back like a cornered rat - but we are at a tipping point. The overthrow of pro-western dictatorships is one thing, even someone as important as Mubarak, but toppling Qaddafi is a whole new ball game. There is no reason at all why this movement should be confined to Islam or the Middle east. If the Colonel goes, Chavez and his like will be quaking in their boots. Sensibly, Hugo hasn't, I think, been drawn to make too many stupid comments yet, but Cuba has, blaming 'Western intelligence services' for the Libya revolt. They know where their bread is buttered. If Qaddafi's forty year old dictatorship can be ended, why not the world's longest, that has lasted now for an almost incredible fifty five years. And if they go, where will Hugo's own mercenaries be when the crowds come to Miraflores to ask him to step down.

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