Poll: Ayotte Leads in Final Stretch, as Hassan Faces Headwinds from Clinton Support

Trump Has Slight Advantage in Granite State

With just over a week to go until Election Day, a new InsideSources-NH Journal Poll shows the presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races in New Hampshire have Republicans slightly leading, but each race is in a statistical dead heat. All eyes will be on the Granite State next Tuesday as it will be one of the first critical swing states to have polls close and report results that could end any suspense over who will win the presidential race and determine which party will control the U.S. Senate.

In the poll conducted October 26-28, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has a 1.7 point advantage over former U.S. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, with 42.9 percent favoring her versus 44.6 percent for her Republican opponent in a five-way race. Among the third-party candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson received 4.4 percent support, Green presidential hopeful Jill Stein was at 1.8 percent, and independent Evan McMullin was at 0.9 percent. The poll found 2.1 percent support for other candidates, and 3.5 percent are undecided.

In a two-way presidential race, Trump leads Clinton 47.1 percent to 45.5 percent, with 7.4 percent unsure, suggesting both candidates lose support to minor party candidates.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte performs better than her party’s presidential nominee in her reelection race against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte, who has said she will not vote for Trump as a result of his statements about women and other controversial positions, leads her Democratic rival by 2.1 percent, with Ayotte receiving 49.1 percent of the vote to Hassan’s 47 and 3.9 percent undecided.

InsideSources and NH Journal tested some of the messages that voters are hearing in the race for Senate. While extensive media coverage of the Senate race has focused on Ayotte’s disagreements with Trump, this appears to be having little effect on voters. A majority of Republicans say this makes no difference to their decision in the Senate race, and for voters who say it does make a difference, there is close to an even split on whether this makes them more or less likely to back Ayotte.

Respondents were also told Ayotte has been criticized by groups tied to the libertarian billionaire Koch Brothers and has broken with the Republican Party on several issues, including climate change, women’s healthcare, and gay rights. Perhaps surprisingly, Hassan’s supporters said this information made them less likely to back the Republican candidate even though her views align with Democrats on several hotly-debated issues.

While Ayotte’s disagreements with Trump appear to be having a minimal effect on the race for Senate, perhaps the issue that could ultimately determine the election is the decision by Hassan to tie herself closely to the top of the Democratic ticket. Hassan has repeatedly said she believes Clinton is honest and trustworthy, and the Democratic Senate candidate is a strong supporter of policy proposals put forward by Clinton. With the national race favoring Clinton, New Hampshire voters seem to be interested in electing a Senator who could serve as a check on a Democratic president.

Nearly half of New Hampshire likely voters say they are less likely to support Hassan after hearing about her unwavering support for Clinton. While Democrats say they are more inclined to support their party’s Senate nominee because of her support for Clinton, Republicans and unaffiliated voters say they are less likely to back Hassan after hearing the information.

Perhaps most troubling for the Hassan campaign, the InsideSources-NH Journal poll was taken immediately prior to the announcement by Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey that the agency was reopening its criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton following the discovery of a new cache of emails that had not been turned over to the bureau. National polling suggests the latest news in the Clinton email scandal makes around one third of voters less likely to support Clinton. Hassan reaffirmed her support for Clinton after the FBI’s announcement.

The study also asked voters for their preferences in New Hampshire’s three-way race for Governor, between Republican Chris Sununu, Democrat Colin Van Ostern, and Libertarian candidate Max Abramson. Sununu held a lead over his opponents, with 45.2 percent versus 41.8 and 2.3 percent respectively, with 10.8 percent undecided.

“These results confirm what people are feeling on the ground: that really anyone can win,” said a Republican operative based in New Hampshire. “Whether it’s Ayotte or Hassan, Trump or Clinton, results in New Hampshire could mean the difference in who controls the Senate and the White House. With just about a week to go, turnout will be critical.”

The InsideSources-NH Journal survey was conducted via landline phones from a random sample of 408 likely voters in New Hampshire and has a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.

About the Author

Shawn is the Publisher of InsideSources. Previously, he served as Iowa Communications Director for the Romney Campaign and has advised other campaigns nationwide. Shawn has an MBA, concentrated in econometrics and statistics, from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and he completed his undergraduate work at the University of Notre Dame. He has a dog named Milton, after his favorite economist.

Why are we voting for Trump when the guy shouldn’t be given a security clearance given his many bankruptcies, legal entailments, affiliations with Russia and dealing with Cuba which was definitely against the law. Never mind the guy totally lies about everything. How long do you think it will be, if he is president before he gets impeached! Also what do you think is going to happen to people’s 401ks and our economy! People seems to be more interested in someone having a private server which amounts to a big nothing! We are getting ready to put a Racist, Alt-Right lunatic in the white house!

Trump is a rich White man born with a silver spoon, a draft dodger, a crook who’s cheated many people including workers, who he’s refused to pay after they done work for him. He is not paying for his own campaign and is making sure what money he does put in is reimbursed to him. Check out the facts on this guy, he’s not a friend of the working man, or the poor as he is trying to make people think. He’s a con-man like Rubio, and Cruse called him, and he’s conning a lot of innocent people!

Clearly you aren’t paying attention. Why wasn’t he called a racist in the last 30 years? Because he wasn’t running for president. Lies? Name one. This guy built a company from the ground up and made billions because he knows how to make money. Name something Hillary has done except being investigated by the F.B.I or involved in some scandal. (Much worse than Trump) Impeached? Hillary is already legally barred from public office due to her gross mishandling of our classified documents. How is it going to look if she wins then is forced out because of the lawsuits? Private server amounts to nothing? Again.. you aren’t paying attention obviously.

Actually, Hillary Clinton is NOT legally barred from running for the Presidency because of the mishandling of emails. This alleged fact stems from an opinion of former US Attorney General Michael Mukasey stated on MSNBC on August 24, 2015 in which he quoted US Code Title 18 Section 2071. After research by several legal experts came to a different conclusion Mukasey retracted his statement. There is currently an agreement among legal scholars that Hillary Clinton is NOT prohibited from holding the office of the Presidency by any law.

Katlyn,
How do you read this? She was not allowed to use a private server which amounts to “unauthorized removal of classified documents”… does this not fall under this law or is she above this as all other laws apparently?

§ 1924. Unauthorized removal and retention of
classified documents or material
(a) Whoever, being an officer, employee, contractor,
or consultant of the United States, and,
by virtue of his office, employment, position, or
contract, becomes possessed of documents or
materials containing classified information of
the United States, knowingly removes such documents
or materials without authority and with
the intent to retain such documents or materials
at an unauthorized location shall be fined
under this title or imprisoned for not more than
one year, or both.

Sununu will bring back Speaker O’Brien”s campaign to turn New Hampshire into New Mississippi. Seeing that O’Brien chose not seek reelection to the House, Sununu will install a hot line direct to O’Brien in the corner office.

Let’s look at the facts. That is, unless you don’t really care about the facts and are willing to say anything to support your preconceived positions. The facts show that Hillary Clinton was negligent in using a personal server to communicate classified information, and that after an initial investigation the FBI did not believe there was reason to pursue criminal charges. The facts show that she admitted she was wrong in doing this and apologized. The facts show that subsequent to this investigation the FBI in an unrelated investigation uncovered some emails that MAY be relevant to the initial investigation. They may be duplicates of ones they already have. They may not contain any classified information. In fact, they may not even be relevant to the initial investigation. Let’s not build this into something it is not. Indeed, I think we need to put the whole email controversy into perspective. Undoubtedly Hillary Clinton is not perfect, but when weighed against the imperfections of Donald Trump, she wins my vote. And I am not an idiot.

I hope you DO see comments that are similar to mine. Or my own comments on other sites. Calling people who disagree with you names does not win you any brownie points. If you have anything intelligent to say about the issues, be my guest. I would love to respond.

People who resort to name calling can’t express themselves any other way! When challenged with a issue they cannot give a logical response to they resort to insults, name calling and dirt because they have no other way to express themselves! Just like Trump!

By all means investigate ME. I haven’t been paid by anyone, but please spend your time and money trying to prove it! I happen to believe what I post. That is why I am not afraid to post my name — unlike you.

She WAS under investigation. The investigation was closed. The FBI is only looking at these new emails to see whether or not they are relevant and the investigation should be reopened. They haven’t determined that yet. The FBI is also looking into Donald Trump and/or his former campaign chair’s relationship with the Kremlin. And the Washington Post has posted a story about how Trump may have illegally destroyed emails that were subpoenaed in lawsuits. But I wouldn’t make a big deal of it unless it were proved. You should extend the same curtesy to Hillary.

Gee officer, I didn’t know I was speeding. You can’t give me a ticket because I didn’t mean to. Give me a break. She knew she was sending out classified information outside of the security of the office (an offense that bars her from office by the way). If she didn’t know she was doing anything wrong, she’s an idiot. And you want to elect her just because she’s female? I’m all for a woman president, just not this one.

I don’t want to elect her just because she is a female. I want to elect her because she is far superior to Donald Trump in terms of her stands on issues of importance, her temperament and her relevant experience. She has worked tirelessly to advance the rights of women and children in this country and around the world, spearheading the Beijing conference, setting up the women’s rights office at the State Department, and working both as First Lady of Arkansas and as a private attorney for the Children’s Defense Fund. She was a well respected senator from New York, who truly tried to work with both Democrats and Republicans in congress to get things done. Although you may not agree with me, I think she did a good job as Secretary of State trying to handle the mess President Bush handed us when he convinced lawmakers that there was reason to invade Iraq. And what, precisely, has Donald Trump done to benefit society? Built a casino? Built a hotel? Built a luxurious golf course for the rich? And what, precisely, are his plans to improve conditions in the United States? Build a wall? Denounce climate change as a Chinese hoax? Increase the availability of nuclear weapons? Use nuclear weapons? Cozy up to the Kremlin? If it is a choice between someone who has carelessly used an email server and someone who is just itching to put his finger on the button, I will vote for the former any day.

Ask the secret service that have had the privilege of dealing with her about her temperament. Ask the people of Haiti that she bilked as part of her working tirelessly to help the poor and impoverished. Ask the rape victim who’s attacker got off because she worked to get him a plea bargain and then laughed about it. Ask the victims of her lecherous husband whom she called bimbos and liars to protect him. Ask the victims of violence in Benghazi why they were attacked because of a “stupid internet video”. Oh wait, no.. they died because of her incompetence. I’m sorry Katlyn, but yes, I disagree with you. I cherish my 2nd amendment rights which she will most certainly try to squelch. I don’t believe that killing coal jobs or raising taxes will help my family as I’m working 50 plus hours per week to feed and have a life. She has been proven to be a chronic liar again and again but yet somehow people will overlook it because she’s a politician and somehow it’s ok to lie if you are in public office. I’m sorry, but I cannot vote for someone who has lied repeatedly to the American people. I cannot vote for someone who has used their power to sell favors and came out unscathed. She belongs in jail. The law is the law and without law we have anarchy. She broke the law with the emails and is not eligible to run for office. Plain and simple. Now.. with all that said.. I never said that Trump was our best hope, far from it. But I will vote for the candidate not being investigated by the F.B.I.. I respect your opinions though, I really do.

You took the time to give a reasoned response to my post that dwells on the issues and does not rely on personal insults. I appreciate that, so I will try to respond in turn. Concerning Hillary’s temperament, I think it is interesting that former Governor Weld has praised her temperament in a recent MSNBC interview — and he is running against her! Women in power don’t have it easy. If they come on strong they are accused of being bitchy; if they are ‘nice’ they are considered weak. In any event, if you ask those same Secret Service agents which candidate’s finger they would prefer to be on the nuclear button, I think many of them might prefer Clinton. As far as Haiti goes, the record shows that Bill Clinton helped to raise more than $30 million from private donors and international organizations for the country after the 2010 earthquake, and that the US government also contributed billions of dollars. Did this influx of money solve all the problems? No. Could some of it been spent more wisely? Perhaps. But just look at the mess they were trying to address: one of the poorest nations in the world, with practically no infrastructure and a history of corrupt leaders, after a violent earthquake. I don’t think you can really say that she ‘bilked’ the people, according to the post-Hillary State Department the US aid was able to provide shelter for more than 300,000 Haitians as well as health care for more than half the country besides raising the average income of tens of thousands of farmers. Check it out. Lets talk about her alleged reprehensible conduct towards a 12 year old rape victim whose attacker she defended. PLEASE check FactCheck.org to get the facts about this case instead of relying on the falsehoods being spread by people with an obvious agenda. About Bill Clinton’s ‘victims’: the only proven allegations about his sexual conduct indicate that he was a philanderer, not a sexual predator, and didn’t force anyone to have sex with him. It was wrong, but you can’t blame Hillary for it, nor can you blame her for thinking that the women involved with him shared his blame. I never could understand the uproar about Hillary’s involvement in Benghazi. I remember clearly what was going on when that attack occurred. There were protests all over the Moslem world about a video that appeared to disparage Mohammed. It was not unreasonable for officials to think that this might have played a part in the timing of the attack. When they got reliable information that it was a terrorist plot perhaps unrelated to the video, they stated it. Do you think they had some nefarious reason for misleading the public and the families of the victims? What difference did it make anyway whether the attack was fomented by a video or planned independently? Now lets talk about your personal concerns. Are you a terrorist, mentally unstable or a criminal? If so, you may have to worry about Hillary taking away your guns. Otherwise, i do not think you have anything to worry about. Killing coal jobs. Really, now, are you blaming Hillary for the fact that for decades now people have been turning away from coal based energy sources over concerns for the environment and turning to sources such as natural gas? The solution to people losing jobs in the coal industry is not to try to prop up an industry that is becoming increasingly outdated, but to replace jobs in the coal industry with ones in an industry that has a future. Are you a millionaire? If not, then I don’t think you have to worry about Hillary raising your taxes, in fact, she may actually lower them. And if you truly “cannot vote for someone who has lied repeatedly to the American public” I think you should refer to the fact checkers who have classified Donald Trump in a league of his own when it comes to the lies he has spewed in this campaign! Yes, Hillary has been investigated by the FBI, but the FBI cleared her last summer from any criminal wrongdoing, and there is no reason to believe that this conclusion will be reversed in the future. She was guilty of negligence, not intentional criminal wrongdoing. I respect your opinions and your concerns, but I think you should rethink the conclusions you have reached. Hillary is a far better choice to be our next President than Donald Trump.

Please explain to me the reason she told the American people the attack was due to a video when she had emailed her daughter the day before and said it was terrorism? She constantly misspeaks which makes her unfit. Let’s ask this.. Do you think Brian Williams was lying intentionally? So what does that make Hillary when she made the outrageous claims she did about landing in Bosnia?

Guess what? They found more information, not duplications. Regardless of your opinion, which I still respect, she is a criminal and unfit for the presidency. Again, Trump is no angel by any means, but Clinton is corrupt just like so many politicians before her.

It is unfortunate that Maggie Hassan is charged with “unwavering support” for Hillary Clinton. That simply is not true. If you look at her positions on issues you will see that Maggie Hassan has called for a temporary halt of refugees coming from Syria into the country until there is a stronger vetting process in place — a position not taken by Clinton or Obama or many other Democrats, including most Democratic governors. She also has spoken against the closure of GITMO until it can be guaranteed that released prisoners will not augment terrorist groups. These are two important issues where she has taken a different position. So, I think it is unfair to claim that she will just rubber stamp every policy put forth by Hillary or the Democrats if she becomes Senator from New Hampshire. There is fair criticism, and there is unfair — and this is unfair.

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