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Adam Dunn's Growing Legend: Comparing Dunn to All-Time Left Fielders Before Age 26

Being a mere three days from Opening Day and the first game of Adamís season at the age of 26, I spent this past offseason wondering just how great Dunn has been to this point in a historical context. So far in his young career, Dunnís already managed to hit 158 home runs and maintain a career line of .248/.383/.518 for a 132 career OPS+. On top of those impressive statistics, some fans will also cite two straight seasons of 100+ runs, 100+ RBI and 40 home runs, all before his 26th birthday.

All of which is impressive, very impressive. But just how impressive? Letís find out.

Weíll start by analyzing Dunnís seasons so far using win shares, which Iíve outlined above. In Adamís shortened rookie campaign of 2001, he burst on the season and still managed to post 10 win shares. In 2002, thanks in large part to 128 walks and a .400 on-base percentage, Dunn racked up 21 win shares, which is very good for a hitter 22-years-old. Unfortunately, Bob Boone and his antics got in the way of developing Dunn in 2003, and coupled with an injury, Adamís win shares total for the season was a paltry 13.

But then Dunn exploded in 2004 with 32 win shares, and followed that up in 2005 with 28 more win shares. An average of 30 win shares per season for two straight seasons heading into his peak years is exactly the recipe for Dunn if heís to put up a monster peak. Tacked on to his years of growth from age 21-23, Dunn has so far tallied 104 career win shares in 661 career games, good for a 25.49 win shares per 162 game average.

All of the above is impressive, yes, but how impressive still remains the question at large. What I did was analyze approximately 30-35 of the greatest left fielders ever to play the game and added in a few currently active players that have already exceeded their 25th birthday (Manny Ramirez, Brian Giles, Jason Bay, Lance Berkman and Brian Giles).

Like Dunn above, I tallied their total win shares for each of their seasons before the age of 26, and then I sorted the chart from top-to-bottom based on win shares per 162 games. Also included in the chart is current games before age 26, total win shares before age 26, and in the column to the very right, total career win shares, which I listed to give everybody a better understanding how each playerís career eventually unfolded.

Some players burst onto the scene at a young age, but fizzle out early (see Charlie Keller). Other players either struggle early in their career or arrive in the majors at an older age and put up their big seasons later in their career (see Zack Wheat and Willie Stargell, among others). Most of the ultra special players arrive early with a bang, have a massive peak, play well into their 30s and leave a lasting impression upon millions of fans. It could be argued that Adam Dunn has started out on that path to being one of those ultra special players.

Out of 39 total left fielders listed, Dunn ranks 15th in win shares per 162 games. His rate of win shares is ahead of every other current active player listed, and incredibly it is also higher than nine Hall of Fame players, those being Fred Clark, Carl Yastrzemski, Chick Hafey, Ed Delahanty, Heinie Manush, Billy Williams, Zack Wheat, Willie Stargell and Lou Brock. Of the non-Hall of Fame players ahead of Dunn, Charlie Keller was finished by the age of 30, Joe Jackson is on the ineligible list, Rickey Henderson should be a virtual lock once he's eligible, and both Sherry Magee and Jimmy Sheckard have strong arguments to belong in Cooperstown. Only George Burns had a somewhat lengthy career and doesn't belong in the Hall based purely on his playing record. Jim Rice, who ranks underneath Dunn at 25.12 win shares per 162 before the age of 26, currently has an array of Hall supporters.

In total win shares before age 26, Dunnís 104 win shares is tied for 11th all-time with Hall of Famer Al Simmons, not a bad guy to rank alongside. That total also ranks higher than 11 Hall of Fame players, those being all nine listed in the paragraph above as well as Ralph Kiner and Jesse Burkett.

All in all, to put it bluntly and state the obvious, Adam Dunn hasnít had a bad start to his blossoming career. Hopefully for Reds fans, the best of Adam Dunn is still very much in the future, with each season from 2006-2009 falling within the peak years of the average player. Nobody yet knows just how great Dunn will be, but heís already allowed us to glance at an early indicator.

Watch this kid. Already his accomplishments are mighty impressive on a historical level. Most fans already realize this, but heís got enormous potential to be a very special player, perhaps even greater than most fans realize.

The thing about Dunn is, rarely has a player THIS good been so roundly criticized and misunderstood. His 3 year contract may look like the biggest bargain in baseball by the time he is done. It would not surprise me one bit to see him put up an MVP season where he bats >.300 with 50 HR and OPS in the neighborhood of 1.100 before his contract runs out.

I agree with everything you said. Adam Dunn is a very special player, and like you said, a lot of folks don't understand just how great he really is. If Dunn can stay healthy for the majority of his career, then I could see his career stats reaching truly elite status; I'm talking 1500+ career walks, possibly 700 homeruns, 1300+ career runs, career OPS in the .950 area.

I just hope that we, as Reds fans, can watch Dunn accomplish all these great feats in a Cincinnati Reds uniform for his whole career. During the down years, Dunn still gives us something to root for.

By the way, as scary as Dunn's numbers are, I can't help but think how much better they would be had Bob Boone and Jim Lefevre not messed with him during that 2003 season. Or if the Reds had a manager that actually appreciated Dunn's skills and batted him in the number two, three, or four spots in the lineup.

By the way, as scary as Dunn's numbers are, I can't help but think how much better they would be had Bob Boone and Jim Lefevre not messed with him during that 2003 season. Or if the Reds had a manager that actually appreciated Dunn's skills and batted him in the number two, three, or four spots in the lineup.

This really has to make one stop and think, doesn't it? Wow!

That's a whole lot of great work, Cyclone. I do have a question though. Are these kinds of stats as meaningful when compiled by position or would they be more meaningful if presented in an overall comparison of all players, regardless of position? Please enlighten me.

"Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

That's a whole lot of great work, Cyclone. I do have a question though. Are these kinds of stats as meaningful when compiled by position or would they be more meaningful if presented in an overall comparison of all players, regardless of position? Please enlighten me.

That's a whole lot of great work, Cyclone. I do have a question though. Are these kinds of stats as meaningful when compiled by position or would they be more meaningful if presented in an overall comparison of all players, regardless of position? Please enlighten me.

There's value in both comparing players to other players at the same position and comparing players across other positions, but when comparing players at separate positions it is important to apply positional adjustments, which can be a bit more difficult. If Adam Dunn follows a typical career path, he will likely be a greater offensive force than Barry Larkin. However, since Larkin was a shortstop and offense at his position is much more difficult to find, Larkin gets an extreme bump up due to positional adjustments. As a left fielder, Dunn could be easily compared to right fielders and first basemen as the positional adjustments are only minor, but the positional adjustments have a greater impact when comparing him to the rest of the positions on the diamond. Here's the 2004 league average data for offense at each position in the majors:

Check out the OBP, SLG and OPS figures for each position. Offense is pretty prevalent at the 1B, RF and LF positions, as well as 3B to some extent. The other positions - C, SS, 2B and CF - have a significant drop in offense. A great hitting center field, for example, is more valuable than a great hitting left fielder (provided their offensive value is similar). There is also a so-called "defensive spectrum" which gives us a rough outline on the importance of each defensive position.

DH - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C

As a general guide, the positions on the left side of the spectrum are the easiest positions while the positions on the right side are the most difficult. As players age and their defensive skills dimish, they tend to move right to left (although it is extremely rare for a catcher to move to SS, 2B, CF and 3B as they leap over to the left half of the spectrum).

SARASOTA, Fla. - Because Adam Dunn is Texas-born and Texas-sized, the 6-foot-6, 270-pound Reds outfielder is expected to hit Texas-length home runs.

And he does. None of his home runs come back with paint stains from scraping the back of the outfield wall.

In his first four full seasons with Cincinnati, the 26-year-old Dunn hit 139 home runs, an average of nearly 35 a season. How can this be done at such a young age?

"Dunn has a great knowledge of the strike zone," Reds Manager Jerry Narron said. "He won't swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Most young players don't have that discipline. Sammy Sosa didn't have it when he was young and didn't become a home run hitter until later in his career when he did."

So where does Dunn stand in the pantheon of power after four years? Very high. Among some hall-of-famers, Dunn is near the top.

After Babe Ruth gave up pitching, he hit 189 home runs in his first four seasons as an outfielder. Dunn, though, has blazed a better four-year pace than Reggie Jackson (131), Ted Williams (127), Eddie Murray (111), Mickey Mantle (108) and, uh, Barry Bonds (84).

I can remember having games like that where everything just goes wrong, but I can't imagine doing it in front of 50,000 people. At least there's 161 days to make up for it ... Hope he shakes it off today.

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