NOAA revises forecast, says more storms likely this hurricane season

By the CNN Wire Staff

Updated 1:59 PM ET, Thu August 9, 2012

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Photos:Hurricane Ernesto

Hurricane Ernesto – People try to recover belongings being washed away by the flood in Boca Del Rio on the outskirts of Veracruz on Thursday, August 9. Tropical Storm Ernesto skirted the coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, sending wind gusts and showers across the state of Veracruz, home to some of Mexico's busiest ports and oil installations.

Hurricane Ernesto – Soldiers stand amid debris left after the passing of Hurricane Ernesto in Mahahual, Mexico, on Wednesday, August 8. After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm is expected to make landfall a second time on Mexico's coast by Thursday evening.

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Photos:Hurricane Ernesto

Hurricane Ernesto – Residents get creative to take shelter from the rain near the beach of Mahahual.

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Hurricane Ernesto – Soldiers remove fallen branches and other debris from a beach in Mahahual.

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Hurricane Ernesto – Residents move a boat that was dislodged by the storm in Mahahual.

Hurricane Ernesto – A woman and her children prepare to evacuate via bus as Ernesto approaches Mahahual on August 7.

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Story highlights

New predictions released Thursday expect more activity

Wind patterns and warm seas are conducive to more storms

There have been six named storms so far this year

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration revised its predictions Thursday, saying more named storms are likely in this year's Atlantic hurricane season.

The agency now predicts between 12 and 17 named storms from the period that started on June 1 and will end on November 30. NOAA's original May prediction was between nine and 15 named storms.

The chance of an above-normal hurricane season rose to 35%, said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. There is a 50% chance of a "near-normal" season.

NOAA predicts that five to eight of the named storms will become hurricanes, and that two to three of those could be major hurricanes. A hurricane that reaches Category 3 or greater (with winds of at least 111 mph) is considered major.

A "normal" hurricane season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, of which three are major hurricanes.

"We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic," Bell said. "These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season."

This season has already produced six names storms: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debbie, Ernesto and Florence. Chris and Ernesto became hurricanes.

This year was also the first time since 1908 that three named storms formed before the June 1 start of hurricane season.

However, Bell said that other factors oppose some of the indications of an above-average storm season.

One of these is the weather phenomenon known as El Niño, which he said will probably develop later in the season.

"El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development," he said.

Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA's National Weather Service, stressed in a conference call with reporters the importance of being prepared for a hurricane.

Apathy about preparedness is a challenge that the public faces, she said.

"People should be ready now," she said.

The warning is not just for coastal residents, Furgione added, as flooding from hurricanes can affect residents far inland.