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1 Who Would be Affected by an Increase in Seattle s Minimum Wage? Report for the City of Seattle, Income Inequality Advisory Committee March 21, 2014 Prof. Marieka M. Klawitter Prof. Mark C. Long Prof. Robert D. Plotnick Acknowledgements: We would like to acknowledge the excellent research services provided by Ruth Allanbrook, Pierre Biscaye, Katie Escudero, and Dr. Jason Williams. We would like to give a special thanks and acknowledgement to the Employment Security Department of Washington State for sharing data and particularly Scott Bailey for doing the coding which helped generate the statistics included in Part B of this report. Page 1 of 60

2 Executive Summary This report describes the characteristics of low-wage workers living or working in Seattle, the size and employees of local businesses, and the costs of living in Seattle. Most of the analysis focuses on Seattle residents, but we also look at how many Seattle workers live outside the city. A: Worker Characteristics (pages 5 to 17): About a third of Seattle residents earn less than $15 per hour, compared to only 19% of those who work in Seattle and live outside of the city About 100,000 people working in Seattle earn less than $15 per hour. 40% of those working in Seattle and earning minimum wage live outside the city. Among the lowest wage Seattle residents, 55% work in the city-- lower than for all workers (63%). Low wages are more likely among workers with characteristics typically associated with low wages: younger workers, less education, being female or a racial/ethnic minority, poor, or receiving public assistance. However, the majority of those earning low wages mirror the population: non-poor, some college education, white, and not receiving public assistance. Family incomes are lowest for Seattle residents earning minimum wage (median of $16,853 per year) and highest for those earning over $18 per hour (median of $89,780); in between they are fairly flat with medians between $30,000 and $35,000. The most common occupations for low-wage workers are: Food Preparation and Serving, Sales, Office and Administrative Support, Personal Care and Service, and Transportation and Material Moving. The most common industries for low-wage workers are: Accommodations and Food Services, Retail Trade, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Educational Services. B: Business Characteristics (pages 18 to 26): Three-quarters of Seattle s establishments have fewer than 10 employees, but less than 12% of workers in Seattle are employed by an establishment with fewer than 10 employees. Only 3 percent of Seattle establishments have 30% or more of their FTEs earning the state minimum wage. A much larger share of Seattle establishments (27%) have 30% or more of their FTEs earning $15 or less. Less that 20% of Seattle establishments with a large proportion of low-wage workers (30% or more of their FTEs) operate in other Washington jurisdictions in addition to Seattle. C: Poverty and Work in Seattle (Pages 27 to 29) 13.6% of Seattle residents had income below the official poverty line in Page 2 of 60

3 Half of poor persons age 16 or older worked at least one week in the past year. They worked an average of 27 weeks per year. D. Estimates of Living Costs (pages 30 to 35) Living wage incomes have been calculated by 3 organizations to estimate living expenses by family size. Estimates of living wages for Seattle residents vary widely depending on family size and the authors methods. They range from $7.72 per hour for a childless couple with two full time workers to $25.44 for a single parent of one child. E: Comparison of Seattle workers and costs to other cities (page 36-40) Seattle s low wage workers are similar to those in Denver, Portland, Sacramento and San Francisco in gender and disability status. For the other demographic characteristics, there is no overall pattern to the differences. The cost of a modest standard of living in Seattle is significantly lower than in San Diego or San Francisco and similar to Sacramento s. Depending on the method, it is either comparable to Denver s and Portland s, or 10-15% higher. F: Possible Changes in Poverty, Earnings, Basic Food, and Business Costs (pages 41 to 47): We have made simple simulations of maximum possible changes in earnings, food stamp eligibility, poverty, and business payrolls. These estimates do not account for any possible adjustments in employment or businesses. If there were no changes in the labor market (which is unlikely), typical employees earning the minimum wage of $9.32 and working 1,040 hours a year could see their annual earnings increase by up to $2,912 (30%) if the minimum wage increased to $ Fully employed workers earnings could increase by $5,600. With a minimum wage increase to $15.00, employees making the current minimum wage could increase their earnings by $5,907 (61%) if they worked the median (1,040) hours or $11,360 if they worked full-time all year. For a family of three with median family income for $9.32 workers, food stamp benefits could drop from $348 dollars to $227 with a $12.12 minimum wage, and to $75 with a $15 wage. Drops would be less for workers working fewer hours and benefit levels are lower for smaller households. An increase in the minimum wage to $15.00 per hour is simulated to reduce poverty from 13.6% to 9.4% if employment and hours did not change. Nearly three-quarters of this decline would be achieved by raising the minimum wage to $12.12 per hour, with the poverty rate falling from 13.6% to 10.6%. Changes in payroll costs attributable to changes in the minimum wage depend on the number of workers earning less than the new minimum wage. In three hypothetical businesses, we found Page 3 of 60

4 payroll costs could increase by 9 to 23% with a change to a $15 minimum wage. This would be higher if employers maintained pay ladders by increasing wages for other workers and lower if employers decreased work hours, hired more productive workers, or moved employment outside the city. Appendix A: American Community Survey Data and Sample Appendix B: Maps of Geographic Areas Used in the Analysis Appendix C: Business Scenarios for $12.12 Minimum Wage Appendix D: Complete Tables for Business Characteristics Appendix E: Treatment of Taxes and Budget Components by the Calculators Appendix F: Comparison of 2012 and 2007 Survey data Appendix G: Complete Tables of Worker Demographics Page 4 of 60

5 A. Worker and Job Characteristics of Low-wage workers Page 5 of 60

6 A. Worker and Job Characteristics of Low-wage workers living in Seattle We use data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to analyze the demographics of workers and households. Data from 2007 allows us to calculate hourly wages for workers which are adjusted to 2013 dollars using the Consumer Price index. 1 We do this by dividing total annual earnings for each worker by the number of weeks worked in the year multiplied by the usual number of hours worked in a week. [See Appendix A for details on question wording. See Appendix F for a comparison of 2007 workers to the most recent data from 2012.] These analyses use Seattle residents over age 16 who worked in the last year, but whose most recent job was not self-employment or as an unpaid family worker. Our key comparisons look at the number and percentage of workers in the following wage categories: State minimum wage or less (up to $9.32 in 2014); 2 $9.33 to $12.12 (130% of state minimum in 2014); $12.13 to $15 per hour (161% of minimum). In the Appendix tables, we have numbers of workers for all categories including those with wages from $15 to $18 per hour (193% of minimum wage) and over $18 per hour for comparison. 3 The tables below show demographic and job characteristics for workers who live in Seattle. We report on poverty, receipt of needs tested benefits, education, age, race/ethnicity, gender, presence of children, hours and weeks of work, work sector, industry, occupation, and location of home and job. The appendices show similar results for those in the areas immediately surrounding Seattle and in the rest of King County. In the analyses, we present the proportion in each demographic group with low wages to illustrate which groups have higher risk of earning low wages. Many of these groups are a small portion of the employed workers in Seattle, so we also present the proportion of low-wage workers with each demographic characteristic. For example, those who have not completed high school are the most likely to be in the lowest two wage categories, but since Seattle has a relatively educated population, those without a high school degree make up only a small proportion of all workers with low wages. 1 The exact number of weeks worked per year, needed to calculate hourly earnings, was not asked in the ACS after Alternative data sets with wage rates (e.g., Current Population Survey) will not allow for analysis of geographic areas smaller than states or full metropolitan areas. 2 Wages may be lower than minimum because of hours or weeks in uncovered employment; volunteer or unpaid work included in reported numbers of usual hours worked; or misreporting of earnings, weeks, or hours. See Appendix A for question wording. 3 Workers at wages just above any new minimum wage may also receive increases to maintain pay ladders. Page 6 of 60

7 A1. Wage Level by Residence and Work location About a third of Seattle residents earn less than $15 per hour, compared to only 19% of those who work in Seattle and live outside of the city. 11% of Seattle residents who work in Seattle earn the current minimum wage or less compared to 15% of residents who work outside the city and 7% of non-residents who work in Seattle. Workers in Seattle <=$9.32 $ A: Percent of Employees who earn: $ $15.01 to $18 Over $18 Total $15 or under Live and Work in Seattle 11% 9% 9% 8% 64% 29% Live in Seattle, Work outside 15% 9% 9% 8% 59% 33% Live outside Seattle, Work in Seattle 7% 6% 6% 8% 73% 19% 41,936 of Seattle residents earn $9.32 or less and 101,347 earn less than $15. 37,915 people working in Seattle earn $9.32 or less and 101,709 people working in Seattle earn less than $15 per hour. 40% of workers in Seattle earning minimum wage live outside the city. ` Estimated Number of Workers Seattle Residence and work location <=$9.32 $ $ $15.01 to $18 Over $18 All Workers Live and Work in Seattle 23,112 19,067 17,871 16, , ,514 Live in Seattle, Work outside 18,824 10,717 11,756 9,404 74, ,944 Live outside Seattle, Work in Seattle 14,803 13,753 13,103 18, , ,754 TOTAL Seattle Residents 41,936 29,784 29,627 25, , ,458 TOTAL Workers in Seattle 37,915 32,820 30,974 34, , ,268 Page 7 of 60

8 A2: Work Region for Seattle Residents Although low wages are more common for Seattle residents who work outside of Seattle, most Seattle residents with low wages work in Seattle. Among the lowest wage workers who live in Seattle, 55% work in the city-- lower than for all workers (63%). B: Percent of Wage Group by Work Region Work Region <=$9.32 $ $ All Workers Seattle 55% 64% 60% 63% King County 9% 15% 17% 18% Outside King County 36% 21% 23% 19% Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% A3. Family Income as Percent of the Federal Poverty Level Low wages are much more common for workers in poor families (100% of federal poverty level or below) and poor workers make up the largest group of those currently earning minimum wage. 4 40% of workers earning minimum wage live in poor families and another 27% live in families with incomes 200% of the poverty level or less (Panel B). 56% of workers in poor families earn the current minimum and 82% earn less than $15 per hour (Panel A, below). 4 The ACS calculates poverty for families using the national poverty thresholds. See Section C for more information on poverty levels and work characteristics for poor adults. Section F provides simulations of possible effects of changing minimum wage on poverty levels. Page 8 of 60

10 A5. Food Stamps Most workers in families receiving food stamps earn low wages, but most low-wage workers do not receive food stamps. [Section F2 provides simple estimates of changes in eligibility with changes to minimum wages.] 61% of workers in families receiving food stamps earn less than $15 per hour and 22% earn the current minimum wage or less (compared to 29% and 12% of those without food stamps; Panel A). 8% to 11% of workers in each of the low wage groups were in families that received food stamps (Panel B). A6. Welfare Receipt A: Percent of Food Stamp group who earn: Food Stamps <=$9.32 $ $ Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ All $ <=$9.32 Workers $ Yes 22% 21% 18% 61% 8% 11% 9% 5% 3,398 3,239 2,764 No 12% 8% 8% 29% 92% 89% 91% 95% 38,538 26,545 26,863 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627 Low wages are twice as common among workers who receive welfare 5, but most low-wage workers do not receive welfare. Almost a third of those who receive welfare earn the current minimum wage (32%) and 63% of those workers earn less than $15 per hour (Panel A). Only 2 percent of low-wage workers live in families that receive public assistance (Panel B). A: Percent of Public Assistance group who earn: Welfare Recipient <=$9.32 $ $ B: Percent of Wage Group by Food Stamp group B: Percent of Wage Group by Welfare group Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Food stamp and Wage Group C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Welfare and Wage Group All $ <=$9.32 Workers $ Yes 32% 17% 14% 63% 2% 2% 1% 1% No 12% 9% 9% 30% 98% 98% 99% 99% 41,015 29,313 29,237 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627 5 Welfare includes receipt of cash assistance from Temporary Aid to Needy Families (TANF) or General Assistance, but not Supplemental Security Insurance or private charity. ACS asks about the share of welfare for individuals, and because TANF is generally given to families (assistance units) it is not clear how respondents report it. Page 10 of 60

11 A7. Education Earning minimum wage is most common for those with less than a high school degree, but most lowwage workers have at least some college education. Most workers with less than a high school education earn less than $15 per hour (59%) as do about half of those with only a high school degree (Panel A). Among workers earning $9.32 per hour or less, 40% have a high school degree or less (17%+23%) as do 36% of those earning $9.32 to $12.12 and 26% of those earning $12.12 to $15 (Panel B). A8. Age A: Percent of Educational Level who earn: Education Level <=$9.32 $ $ B: Percent of Wage Group by Education Level Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Education and Wage Group All $ <=$9.32 Workers Earning minimum wage is most likely for workers under 19 or years old, however more than half of those earning the current minimum wage are over 25. Among those under 19, most earn the current minimum wage (61%) and 76% earn less than $15 per hour (Panel A). Most of those aged earn less than $15 per hour (66%), but only 35% earn the current minimum wage (Panel A). $ Less Than HS 29% 19% 11% 59% 17% 16% 9% 7% 7,153 4,798 2,684 High School or GED 23% 14% 12% 49% 23% 20% 17% 13% 9,684 5,817 4,912 Some College 19% 13% 12% 43% 40% 39% 36% 27% 16,859 11,702 10,554 Bachelor's Degree 5% 4% 6% 15% 20% 25% 39% 53% 8,240 7,467 11,477 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627 Only 10% of minimum wage workers are under 19, but 48% are under 25 (10%+38%; Panel B). More than half of workers currently earning under $15 per hour are over 25 years old. (Panel B). A: Percent of Age Group who earn: Age <=$9.32 $ $ B: Percent of Wage Group by Age Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Age and Wage Group All $ <=$9.32 Workers Page 11 of 60 $ under 19 61% 14% 1% 76% 10% 3% 0% 2% 4, % 21% 10% 66% 38% 32% 16% 14% 16,112 9,575 4, % 8% 9% 24% 30% 48% 49% 51% 12,613 14,362 14, % 6% 9% 23% 13% 12% 20% 19% 5,542 3,574 5, % 3% 10% 21% 8% 5% 16% 14% 3,540 1,327 4,700 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627

13 A11. Children in Home Low wages are less common among those with children under 18 in the household and workers without children in the household make up over 80 percent of low-wage workers. 9% of those with children earn the current minimum, compared to 14% of those without children. (Panel A). 33% of workers with children earn less than $15 per hour but only 22% of those with children (Panel A) A: Percent of Household Type who earn: Children in Home <=$9.32 $ $ B: Percent of Wage Group by Household type Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Household and Wage Group All $ <=$9.32 Workers $ Yes 9% 8% 6% 22% 16% 20% 14% 23% 6,762 5,877 4,231 No 14% 9% 10% 33% 84% 80% 86% 77% 35,174 23,907 25,396 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627 A12. Hours and Weeks of Work Low wages are more common among part time workers, but most low-wage workers work full time. Among full time workers (those who report they usually work at least 30 hours a week when they work), 10% earn the current minimum wage compared to 30% of part time workers (Panel A). 65% of minimum wage workers are full time compared to 85% of all workers (Panel B). A: Percent of Work Status who earn: Work Status <=$9.32 $ $ B: Percent of Wage Group by Work Status Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Status and Wage Group All $ <=$9.32 Workers $ Full time 10% 8% 8% 26% 65% 80% 88% 85% 27,453 23,870 23,291 Part time 30% 12% 13% 55% 35% 20% 12% 15% 14,483 5,914 6,336 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627 Page 13 of 60

14 Those with the lowest wages also have fewer weeks worked per year and fewer hours worked in a usual week. Minimum wage workers work a median 44 weeks per year and 32 hours per week compared to 50 weeks and 40 hours for those earning between $12.12 and $15 per hour. Number of hours worked by employees who earn: Hours Worked <=$9.32 $ Median Weeks worked per year Median Hours worked per week Median total annual hours $ A13. Sector of Work Low wages are more common in the private sector than in the non-profit or public sector and 80% of low-wage workers work in the private sector. Nevertheless, 25% of non-profit and 20% of public sector employees earn $15 an hour or less. 15% of workers in private sector jobs make the current minimum wage, but only 8% of workers in the non-profit or public sectors (Panel A). 80% of workers earning minimum wage work in the private sector compared to 69% of all workers (Panel B). A: Percent of Work Sector who earn: Work Sector <=$9.32 $ $ B: Percent of Wage Group by Work Sector Total Low <=$9.32 $ Wage $ C: Estimated Number of Workers in each Sector and Wage Group All $ <=$9.32 Workers $ Non - Profit 8% 9% 8% 25% 8% 13% 12% 13% 3,373 3,828 3,616 Private 15% 10% 9% 34% 80% 78% 74% 69% 33,582 23,157 21,934 Public 8% 5% 7% 20% 12% 9% 14% 18% 4,981 2,799 4,077 Totals % 100% 100% 100% 41,936 29,784 29,627 Page 14 of 60

17 B. Business Characteristics and the Effect of Raising the Minimum Wage on Labor Costs Page 17 of 60

18 B. Business Characteristics and the Effect of Raising the Minimum Wage on Labor Costs For the following analysis, we use 2012 data reported by employers to Washington State s Employment Security Department (ESD) on workers who are covered by Unemployment Insurance. Unemployment Insurance records include all employees except: the self-employed, federal employment, railroad employment, some private educational institutions, some religious organizations, 100 percent commission sales workers (mostly in insurance and real estate), many corporate officers, elected public officials, work-study students, casual labor, and farmworkers who work very short durations. 7 We have divided firms into industries based on 2-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes plus an additional category for Government employees (which, as noted above, excludes federal government employment). Disclosure concerns prevented ESD from sharing full information on four industries that lack sufficient numbers of establishments, including: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction; Utilities; and Management of Companies and Enterprises. We have collapsed these four industries to one category labeled Other Industries. In the tables below, industries are sorted by total number of employees from the largest to smallest (except Other Industries which is placed at the bottom of the tables). Tables below show characteristics of establishments located in Seattle. In the appendices, we show characteristics of establishments located in the rest of King County. By definition, an establishment is an economic unit, such as a factory, mine, store, or office that produces goods or services. It generally is at a single location and is engaged predominantly in one type of economic activity. In these data, however, there are some multi-establishment employers who report all of their employment at one address, and thus are treated as a single "establishment" in this report. 7 This analysis also excludes wage data from private household workers, where the wage data are unreliable. Page 18 of 60

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