Could Alberta offer the Liberals a road back from oblivion?

Andrew Perez, BJ, MPP, is a recent graduate of the Master of Public Policy program at the University of Toronto and an activist with the Ontario Liberal party. Andrew has worked for a national political party, and completed internships on Capitol Hill in Washington D.C. and Queen’s Park in Toronto. He also holds a Bachelor of Journalism from Carleton University where he won an award for political reporting.

Political scientists are fond of an old cliche: ‘Governments don’t win by-elections.’ It’s true, mostly: except when a byelection is held in a riding that just happens to back a single party through good times and bad, and when that party just happens to be in power.

Welcome to Calgary Centre. Previously held by moderate Conservative MP Lee Richardson, Calgary Centre has elected conservatives of one stripe or another since the riding boundaries were first created in the 1960s.

On May 2, 2011 — just a year and a half ago — Richardson was re-elected to a fourth consecutive term with a staggering 58 per cent support; his Liberal opponent placed a distant second with 18 per cent of the vote. That’s about as close to a runaway as any MP can hope for.

So, when Prime Minister Stephen Harper called by-elections for the ridings of Calgary Centre, Victoria, and Durham late last month, Tory candidate and media personality Joan Crockatt was universally considered to be a shoo-in to nab the downtown Calgary riding.

Not so anymore: recent polls have the Liberal and Tories neck and neck, with the Green Party candidate nipping at their heels in third place.

Here’s another old cliche you hear a lot in elections: ‘Campaigns matter.’ One only need examine the recent victories of Mayor Rob Ford in Toronto, Mayor Naheed Nenshi in Calgary and Premier Alison Redford to see the truth in it.

All three politicians started their campaigns as the clear underdogs, accompanied by dismal polling numbers, yet emerged with stunning victories on election day. Although it remains to be seen who will claim victory this evening in Calgary, it’s abundantly clear the Liberal and Green campaigns have been instrumental in transforming an otherwise safe Conservative riding into a nail-biter.

A poll released last week by Lorne Bozinoff of Forum Research found 35 per cent of voters in the riding support Crockatt, while Liberal Harvey Locke has 30 per cent support, the Green Party’s Chris Turner has 25 per cent, and the NDP is in a distant fourth place with 8 per cent.

We’re a long way from the polling at the onset of the campaign, when Crockatt was sitting on what seemed to be an insurmountable lead of 48 per cent support. Said Bozinoff: “These findings show us the Conservatives are in real trouble in Calgary Centre — as safe a riding as exists.”

A more recent poll put the gap between the Tory and Liberal candidates at a mere two per cent, well within the margin of error.

Predictably, since the by-election was triggered in late October, Crockatt has been engrossed in a number of controversies on the campaign trail. Her decision to avoid the media has not helped her: Crockatt’s opponents have been more than happy to fill the void and craft their respective campaign messages.

Then there was Crockatt’s decision to refrain from taking part in all-candidates’ forums: a cynical strategy that backfired almost immediately. Also, Crockatt’s unwavering support for the Wildrose Party in last spring’s provincial election appears to have cost her support on the “progressive” side of the Conservative Party.

It’s not only the Liberals capitalizing on what appears to be a collapsing local Conservative campaign. Chris Turner — the Green Party candidate — is a respected journalist and civic activist who has written extensively on environmental issues.

Turner has won considerable support from Mayor Nenshi’s campaign team, and is leveraging social media to actively seek out support from younger, more progressive voters.

At first glance, Calgary Centre might appear to be the antithesis of ‘progressive’ Alberta. Take a closer look at the riding’s history and demographics, and recent political trends in the province, and a different picture emerges.

Calgary Centre was held by former prime minister and PC leader Joe Clark from 2000-2004. Clark shrewdly pieced together a coalition of moderate Conservatives, Liberals and New Democrats to steal the riding from a Reform-Canadian Alliance MP in the 2000 federal election.

The riding was represented most recently by another Red Tory, Lee Richardson, who was a Progressive Conservative backbencher in Brian Mulroney’s government and now works for Redford’s Alberta Conservatives in a senior capacity.

As recently as the 2004 federal election, the Liberals managed an impressive 30 per cent support in the riding. Moreover, their provincial Liberal counterparts have won elections within the boundaries of the federal riding on several occasions. Liberal David Bronconnier — who carried the party’s banner in the 1997 federal election in Calgary West — was elected mayor of Calgary for three consecutive terms from 2001-2010.

Demographically, Calgary Centre has become the embodiment of modern Alberta: it has a large number of young people, a significant gay community and an assortment of ethnic communities. It’s diverse, cosmopolitan.

The riding is also a political stronghold for Nenshi, a pragmatic progressive who is not affiliated with any political party. Nenshi — a Harvard graduate born in Toronto — became the first Muslim to become mayor of a major Canadian city only weeks after polling a distant third against two higher-profile opponents. His campaign was a grassroots effort, driven by young volunteers and a savvy social media strategy. With campaign manager Stephen Carter leading the charge, the campaign was able to tap into an undercurrent of dissatisfaction in the city.

A year later, Redford hired Carter as her campaign manager and pulled off a similarly striking victory when she emerged from the back of the pack as a Calgary MLA in the PC leadership race to become the first female premier of Alberta. Redford then went on to win a commanding majority against vigorous competition from right-winger Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party.

These wins mean something. They point to an Alberta where political patterns are beginning to reflect the province’s diversity, urbanism, and visible unease with the status quo.

Although it’s not certain what fueled the Liberal surge in Calgary Centre in recent weeks, it can most reasonably be chalked up to local discontent and a yearning for political rejuvenation in a province virtually dominated by Conservative MPs.

Could the son of Pierre Trudeau — who all but shut the Liberal Party out of western Canada — reverse the political ruin his father triggered over three decades ago? It would make for an ironic twist in the party’s recent history.

In spite of last week’s revelation of controversial comments made by Trudeau two years ago about Alberta’s place in Canada, it’s becoming more conceivable by the day that he could be the right leader to tap into the voter discontent that took Nenshi and Redford into office.

Trudeau is not only young and charismatic, he fits the pragmatic progressive mold that Nenshi and Redford personified on the campaign trail. His recent support of the CNOOC-Nexen deal sets him up as a leader who is willing to joust with the Conservatives on their own turf.

“There is a leadership opportunity in Asia that could create thousands of jobs here at home,” Trudeau wrote in the Edmonton Journal earlier this month. “In order to take it, we need courage and vision.”

Trudeau is just one of many Liberals who see opportunity in the West. Fellow leadership candidate Martha Hall Findlay launched her campaign last week in Calgary, presenting herself as a centre-right Alberta-friendly candidate. Since losing her Toronto seat in May 2011, Hall Findlay has spent considerable time in Calgary working as an executive fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

There she authored an academic paper attacking supply management and received considerable media coverage for it. Notably, Stephen Carter — who spearheaded Nenshi and Redford’s campaigns — has signed on to do the same for Hall Findlay. And while her chances of pulling off a victory are slim, she may prove to be a boon to her party on the campaign trail.

Remember interim leader Bob Rae’s recent speech at the Canadian Club of Toronto, where he reached out to Alberta on energy policy by arguing the oilsands are a “great advantage — but like anything (they) can be exploited for short-term gain and then squandered.” Rae emphasized that it’s “wrong-headed” to pit the resource and manufacturing sectors against one another — a clear shot at NDP leader Thomas Mulcair. Instead, Rae proposed an industrial strategy that would cut taxes on manufacturing.

When all the ballots were counted in May 2011, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by 40.2 points in Calgary Centre. Even if Liberals don’t win tonight in Calgary, they’ve changed things in the riding — and perhaps pointed a way forward for their party nationally.

Follow Andrew on Twitter at @andrewaperez. Click here to view other columns by Andrew Perez.

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