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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Georgia Tech Win Is Far From A Sure Thing Saturday Against North Carolina

The Yellow Jackets are six point favorites against the Tar Heels on Saturday and after blowing away the last three spreads as favorites Georgia Tech may be feeling this game will be another easy win.

Here are five reasons why it may not be:

1. Georgia Tech's Team and Fan Base Feels Invincible Now
After scoring 66 points and running up 768 yards last Saturday, not to mention 49 against MTSU and 63 versus Western Carolina in prior weeks I wonder if the team thinks they can roll their helmets out and score 40+ points on UNC?

2. Speaking of That Schedule
The Jackets have rolled up nearly 700 yards per game of offense against the 146th ranked scheduled in the nation.

3. North Carolina Has Five NFL Prospects In Their Front Seven
The strength of this Tar Heel defense is on the defensive line. Disruption in the backfield is the best way to stop Tech's spread option offense. Just ask LSU (2008) or Miami (2009 and 2010) or Clemson (2010)

4. The Yellow Jackets Offense Is Masking Their Problems on Defense
Tech ranks 49th in total defense and scoring defense. Not bad, but not great either. Other stats are less impressive though.

The Jackets are allowing opponents to complete 62% of their passes. UNC is completing 81% thus far.

Georgia Tech's defense is allowing a 48% conversions on third down,good for 102nd in the nation. Despite such blowouts forcing opponents to play one-dimensional, the Yellow Jackets rank just 88th in tackle for loss.

As long as opponents are converting third downs that means Tech's high powered offense remains on the sideline.

5.UNC Has Lost 6 Straight in Atlanta, But 4 Games Have Been Decided By A Touchdown Or Less.
You know the old saying if you keep knocking on the door it will finally open? And Butch Davis is no longer on the sideline to screw it up.

However, despite all this if Georgia Tech comes to play and executes like they have thus far then they will win this game. If they just roll their helmets out and expect it to be like last week they will be sent crashing back to earth.