It really doesn’t matter whether 0.2% or 20% of the women in a given area
carry a .38 caliber protector. What matters is that 50% of the potential
rapists/muggers/etc believe that a significant number of their potential
victims can immediately fend off their attack, thus forcing them to
consider the potential cost of said crime. This is how deterrents work.
Notice how this can explain why the Orlando program had a sudden, local
effect,

The effect is consistent with the extreme variation in the rate before
the gun-training program — i.e. the effect was not statistically
significant.

As so many sociological/psychological/criminological studies have shown,
criminals lean towards instant gratification, long term rewards and
punishments don’t mean as much to them. That’s why the instant frustration
of facing an armed victim is a very real consideration, even for the more
hardened criminals. Because it’s a NOW function, and they live in the NOW
time frame.

Which totally undercuts your statement above of how deterrents work.
No rapist in Orlando was frustrated by an armed victim. Since
criminals “live in the present”, they do not consider the “potential
cost of said crime”.

I think the reason that the “deterrence theory” seems so plausible, is
that we assume criminals think like ourselves. If I were a criminal,
I would be deterred by the thought of encountering an armed victim,
but I’m not a criminal, so my though processes do not give much
insight into the way criminals think. Unfortunately, criminals do not
think of the future, are just the sort of people who will not be
deterred by the potential consequences of their actions.