opinion

The Ulyukayev Case: What is the Ruling Elite so Afraid Of?

Almost two weeks have passed since the
authorities detained and dismissed former Economic Development
Minister Alexei Ulyukayev on charges of exacting a bribe from
Rosneft. It was the first arrest of a government minister in a decade
and it sent deep shockwaves through the entire Russian elite. The
reasons behind it, however, remain unclear.

Ulyukayev’s own thoughts on the
subject are also a mystery because the court has forbidden him from
speaking with the press. There is no shortage of theories for the
arrest, including some outlandish ones – for example, that
President Vladimir Putin personally framed his own minister. However,
the two most widely accepted theories state that it was an act of
revenge by Rosneft head Igor Sechin or that it was an attempt to
weaken the position of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

In fact, there are a number of
unanswered questions regarding this case. First, what role did FSB
General Oleg Feoktistov play in this affair? Feoktistov oversaw
high-profile arrests in recent years and then took a job as head of
security for Rosneft in September. On the other hand, there are
questions about the role of Andrei Kostin, head of Vneshtorgbank,
Russia’s largest state-owned bank where Ulyukayev is head of the
supervisory board.

In any case, it is clear that Ulyukayev
himself is not the goal, but a pawn in a larger game. Simply guessing
who benefits from his arrest does not offer any clues either. Perhaps
the answer to the most dramatic high-profile arrest in recent years
lies in who ultimately replaces the fallen minister. However, the
fact that a replacement has yet to be found suggests that events
unfolded spontaneously and were not scripted in advance.

The Ulyukayev case has no direct
connection to the fight against corruption, like all previous
high-profile “anti-corruption” cases – from that of former
Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov (who was almost imprisoned several
years ago), to the recent arrest of a General of the Presidential
Guard for trying to take a bribe.

Even if these and other prominent
individuals charged with corruption-related crimes are guilty,
they are no more guilty than others, and often less so. Still,
leaders have done nothing to dismantle the mechanisms of corruption
or to introduce a system for public oversight. They focus attention
on individual corruption cases because they fear launching a major
anti-corruption campaign that could claim unintended victims and lead
to widespread outrage.

The Ulyukayev case is significant in
itself and because the lack of reaction from the public and political
elite gives some indication of the condition of both. Ulyukayev’s
colleagues among the so-called “system liberals” have not even
noticed his absence. The elite remain silent, apparently hoping that
the court will sort things out or, in a best-case scenario, cast
doubts on the dubious and groundless official charges against him. No
one, of course, has any doubts that this is a crazy way to treat a
senior official from the liberal camp.

As for society, a recent Levada Center
survey shows that 30 percent of Russians are following the case
closely, two-thirds believe the Ulyukayev case is a manifestation of
the widespread depravity and corruption among the authorities, and 40
percent – 50 percent believe it casts a shadow on President Putin.
That, however, does not stop Putin from continuing to enjoy immense
popularity.

The views expressed in opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the position of The Moscow Times.