GOP braces for shutdown fallout

House and Senate Republicans are still spooked by the ghosts of shutdown past, with many fearing a brutal political fallout that could threaten their party in the run-up to the 2014 midterms.

Despite a firm belief that the public is on their side in opposition to Obamacare, there is palpable fear among Republicans on Capitol Hill that they will not be rewarded for taking such a tough stand against the law, which helped lead to the first government shutdown in 17 years early Tuesday. And there is even deeper concern that President Barack Obama won’t give any ground in the battle over his signature legislative achievement and House Speaker John Boehner will eventually capitulate, leaving Republicans with little to show for after a raging political fight.

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Shutdown: Democrats vs. GOP

Shutdown news roundup

In interviews on Monday, many congressional Republicans argued that their best hope is that the shutdown will be short, the GOP can secure at least one concession from Obama and that voters will forget about the budget debacle by next November, instead applauding them for fighting a health care law they see as completely unworkable.

“I don’t think it ends well for Republicans,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), the conservative freshman and former House member. “I just think that we get the blame on things like this. I don’t think it will be any different this time.”

“I just don’t think it’s smart,” said Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.). “People don’t get elected to shut the government down, especially over something you clearly don’t have the votes for.”

Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, a member of Senate GOP leadership and a former House Republican leader, said: “If Republicans don’t get most of the blame for a shutdown, it will be the only time that the opposition party to the president didn’t get the blame for a shutdown.”

“It’s funny: People want to repeal Obamacare, but they don’t see the connection about what we’re doing here and the fact they don’t like Obamacare,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who served through the last shutdown and was a supporter of using the spending bill to defund Obamacare in this fight. “It’s an anomaly.”

And while some House and Senate Republicans believe they won’t suffer the same political backlash that Speaker Newt Gingrich did in 1996 that helped bolster Bill Clinton’s reelection, virtually everyone believes the public — and the media — will place a much bigger blame on their party than the Democrats, fairly or not.

“I think for either party, it depends on the duration of it, and the impact of it on people’s lives,” said Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas). “If people feel that this is worthwhile, I think it will accrue to the Republicans. If at the end of the day they don’t, I think it will be damaging.”

“Oh yeah,” Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.) said when asked if he thought Republicans would suffer more of the blame for the shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid “could do nothing and he still won’t get blamed for shutting down the government.”

Therein lies the problem in the eyes of many congressional Republicans: They set a very high bar demanding changes to Obamacare, but that could ultimately turn out to be a lost cause, given the Democrats’ no-compromise stance on the issue. After a drama-filled Monday in which House Republicans passed bill after bill gutting Obamacare only to see Senate Democrats reject the moves, the chambers return Tuesday back at square one — but this time, with government services cut off and hundreds of thousands of federal employees experiencing furloughs.