With South Korea's Stability in Balance, Millions Vote for a New President

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With their country's political stability hanging in the balance, millions of South Koreans voted today, their first chance in 16 years to elect a president on their own.

But as they voted, Koreans were surrounded by uncertainties about whether they were making a grand democratic leap or were about to slip into the sort of disorder that has plagued them for decades.

Within the first few hours of balloting, opposition figures charged that irregularities had already occurred. They claimed that in some districts more than 2 percent of the registered voters turned out to be dead people, Koreans who had moved elsewhere or had been inducted into the military.

Much will depend on popular perceptions of whether the balloting today and vote-counting tonight were by and large fair. It is a question that looms especially large if the candidate of the Government party, Roh Tae Woo, is declared the victor. Results are not expected until Thursday morning.

The two main opposition candidates, Kim Young Sam and Kim Dae Jung, once again left no doubt as they ended their campaigns Tuesday that they would charge fraud if Mr. Roh wins. The main questions then would be the extent of the resulting protests and whether they could become severe enough for the army to be called in to restore order. Street Demonstrations Planned

University students said they would take to the streets on both Thursday and Friday no matter what happens, either to celebrate an opposition victory or to protest.

Each of the Kims insists that in a fair election he would be the sure winner. In fact, many analysts saw the race as too close to call.

''The question is whether we have revolution through election, or revolution,'' an adviser to Kim Dae Jung said.

Although a victory by either Kim would sharply reduce the danger of violent disruptions, it would also raise anxieties about whether some elements in the military would accept the results. Long Lines at Polls

Either way, most political analysts believed that South Korea today entered an unsettled period, with the promise of stable democratic government hanging in the balance.

On the surface, the balloting this morning seemed to be smooth, with no clear evidence of obvious and widespread fraud. At the Haengdang district office in eastern Seoul, long lines stretched into the street as voters waited patiently to present their identification and receive a paper ballot listing the candidates' names.

''There have been no complaints so far,'' said Yang Ok Seok, a district election official. That view was confirmed by a Yonsei University student who stood nearby observing.

Because of the critical importance of the fairness issue, thousands of officially designated and self-appointed watchdogs fanned out across the country to monitor the balloting at 13,657 polling places.

A federation of anti-Government groups, the National Coalition for Democracy, sent thousands of student volunteers to different cities, where they stationed themselves inside the polling places.

In addition, teams of foreign observers have trickled into South Korea in the last few days, most of them from the United States. Opposition Leaders Criticized

The ruling camp insists that the election will be fair and that the two Kims raise the issue of cheating to deflect criticism of their inability to settle on a single opposition candidate between them.

United States Government officials have said they will be under pressure to make a quick judgment about the election's fairness. For them, the biggest quandary would be what to do if Mr. Roh wins, but a consensus emerges that the vote was rigged.

But for many South Koreans that was jumping too far ahead as they took part in their first genuine presidential election since 1971.

The balloting today was the culmination of a series of events that began last June with street demonstrations for democratic changes that had long been denied by the authoritarian Government of President Chun Doo Hwan. Running Against Chun

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Everyone in the race tried to run against Mr. Chun, including Mr. Roh, his chosen successor. The Government that he helped create in a military coup seven years ago has been too repressive, Mr. Roh acknowledged. But the two Kims, rival leaders of the mainstream opposition, insisted that a Roh presidency would be nothing but an extension of an unpopular Government that they call a military dictatorship.

The monthlong official campaign was one of increasing nastiness, marked by name-calling, sporadic violence and regional antagonisms so severe that they may not be easily soothed. Mr. Roh warned that an opposition victory would mean chaos and ruin; the Kims replied that more repression would follow unless one of them was elected.

On Tuesday, the last day of the campaign, long-simmering but suppressed tensions finally spilled over between the two Kims themselves, raising questions about how smoothly they will reconcile their differences if either of them wins.

Kim Dae Jung accused his rival of printing a false announcement that Kim Dae Jung had dropped out of the race. ''I have often wondered if Kim Young Sam lacked principles and moral posture,'' Mr. Kim said. Kim Young Sam's headquarters sidestepped the charge, neither fully admitting nor denying it. Five Year Term for Winner

Whoever wins will serve a single five-year term beginning Feb. 25. If no complications arise, it will be the first peaceful transfer of power since South Korea was founded in 1948.

It will take a simple plurality to win today, and the winner is not likely to get more than 40 percent of the vote, if that. His first task will thus be to establish his legitimacy, a burden that probably will be made heavier by attempts to unseat him.

At the end, five candidates were in the race, three having dropped out along the way. One of the five was Kim Jong Pil, once Prime Minister under President Park Chung Hee. This Mr. Kim was widely thought to be capable of siphoning off 5 percent to 20 percnt of the vote, making him a potential spoiler because many of his supporters would otherwise have gone to Mr. Roh.

Kim Young Sam, who turned 60 on Sunday, heads the Reunification Democratic Party and also speaks of his credentials as an anti-Government leader, but says he would be a moderate alternative to Kim Dae Jung.

Kim Jong Pil, 61, heads the New Democratic Republican Party. As a former Prime Minister under President Park Chung Hee, he offers himself as a voice of experience.

Shin Jeong Yil, 49, heads the Hanist Unification Korea Party, a personal group with a tiny, almost cultish following. He is not a significant presence in the race. Voters

There are 25.9 million registered voters in a population of 42 million. About 90 percent are expected to vote. Nearly half the electorate, more than 12 million people, are voting in a presidential election for the first time. Issues

Stability is a theme stressed by all the major candidates, and each says he alone can guarantee it. None of them differ dramatically in basic approaches to the dominant concerns of economic growth and security against North Korea. But Kim Dae Jung and Kim Young Sam are likely to put more emphasis on accomodating workers' needs and on exploring more flexible approaches to the North. Background

The election results from a dramatic sequence of events that began last June with intense street protests for democratic change that swept South Korea. The demonstrations forced the ruling camp to capitulate to these demands, thereby abandoning plans to have Roh Tae Woo assume the presidency next Feb. 25 automatically as the hand-picked successor of President Chun Doo Hwan. Outlook

Each candidate insists he cannot lose, but many neutral analysts see the race as close and suggest that it could go to any of the three leading candidates -Mr. Roh, Kim Dae Jung or Kim Young Sam. Only a simple plurality is required for victory. Results will begin to be known tonight, and should be virtually complete tomorrow morning, Korean time.

A version of this article appears in print on December 16, 1987, on Page A00014 of the National edition with the headline: With South Korea's Stability in Balance, Millions Vote for a New President. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe