Duke Basketball Preview: #5

A lack of depth has kept Duke out of the nation’s elite over the last two
campaigns. Last year’s roster was an improvement over the 2006-2007 season, but
depth was still a concern. The Blue Devils have had some horrible finishes to
both of those seasons, including a couple of early NCAA Tournament exits. The
depth will be better this year and that is enough to move the talented Blue
Devils up into a legitimate Final Four contender instead of a group that will
suffer another early departure in March.

Who’s Out:

When Duke was
dominating early in the 2007-2008 season, it was on the shoulders of DeMarcus
Nelson. The guard led the team in scoring and steals, but he also averaged 2.9
assists and 5.8 rebounds. Nelson did it all and it will be very difficult for
the Blue Devils to replace him with a single individual. Taylor King has also
left the program after averaging 5.5 points per game.

Who’s In:

The addition of
Elliot Williams will certainly help ease the loss of Nelson. Williams is an
explosive athlete and a joy to watch above the rim. He is 6-4, but he plays a
whole lot bigger than that. His wingspan is impressive and that, along with his
mindset and foot speed, makes him a solid defender. Williams handles the ball
like a point guard, and could certainly spend some time there, but he should
spend more time on the wing unless Duke needs him to run the show at some point
in his career. The only question surrounding Williams is his outside shooting.
He is not a horrible shooter by any means, but it is his weak spot. Williams is
the star of the class, but Olek Czyz and Miles Plumlee finally give the Blue
Devils some options in the paint. Czyz is a bit of a wildcard. At 6-7 and 240
pounds, he has enough size to play power forward, but he is more of a guard who
has a lot of size. If he can pull it together quickly, Czyz could be a surprise
player on this year’s roster. Plumlee will likely see playing time, whether he
is ready or not. At 6-10 and 230 pounds, Plumlee has more size than anybody on
the Duke roster not named Zoubek, and if he can effectively play 15 to 20
minutes per game at the five spot, the Blue Devils frontcourt issues will be
over.

Who to Watch:

Williams will find
his minutes, but Coach Mike Krzyzewski already has a ton of talented guards.
Greg Paulus and Nolan Smith will share minutes running the show. Paulus averaged
11.4 points and 3.2 assists per contest a year ago. He is not the most flashy
scorer or ball handler around, but Paulus is a solid all-around player who will
do what his team needs him to do. Smith could be the breakout player on the team
(and perhaps the conference) this year. He only averaged 5.9 points per game as
a sophomore, but that was in just 14.7 minutes per contest. If he can earn more
playing time, he will be a consistent double-digit scorer. On the wings Gerald
Henderson and Jon Scheyer are the scoring options. Henderson is a superb athlete
who is just waiting to have a huge season. Scheyer came off the bench in all but
one game last year, but he was third on the team in minutes. With Williams on
the roster, the 6-5 shooter might find himself as the team’s sixth man once
again.

Final Projection:

Sophomore Kyle Singler could just as well be listed as a guard, but the 6-8
Medford, Oregon native spent some time at the five spot last year. With the
newcomers, Singler should spend most of his time at the power forward position
where he can be more spread out opposing defenses with his outside shooting
ability. If Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek can be effective, which they generally
were not last year, than they will see plenty of playing time. If not, the
frontcourt’s success or failure will fall on the freshman shoulders of Plumlee.

SPONSORS

About Joel Welser

ColumnistCollege Preview Editor

Contactjwelser@collegehoops.net

Background

"Joel Welser does a tremendous job covering college basketball. He gives his readers knowledgeable and insightful information on college hoops." -Ernie Zeigler, Head Basketball Coach, Central Michigan University "Joel Welser writes clean, knowledgeable copy that always hits deadline." -Greg Eno, former editor-in-chief, Motor City Sports Magazine Growing up in Michigan, Joel Welser inherited a love for Big Ten sports. After defying all family traditions and not going to Michigan State, Joel headed out west to earn his bachelor degree from California State University, Northridge in Cinema Television Arts, specializing in screenwriting. For reasons still unknown, after his stint in Hollywood, Joel headed back to Michigan where he remains to this day complaining about the cold. Joel has found a successful formula with the popular top 144 series at collegehoops.net and has also written college football and college basketball previews and articles for various websites and magazines.