There are huge stakes throughout the lottery. Landing No. 1 could completely change a franchise. There will be a debate at No. 2 between Murray State’s Ja Morant and Duke’s RJ Barrett, and team fit could ultimately settle things. Multiple teams in the lottery are holding onto protected or traded picks. And of course, teams jumping up in the lottery could swing Anthony Davis trade talks.

The gap starts with the fourth-worst team, though the difference isn’t huge. The fourth-worst team can fall as far as No. 8, but on average that pick lands around Nos. 4 or 5.

The worst team has a 47.9 percent chance to fall to No. 5. The lowest a team could fall under the old system was No. 4, and there was just a 35.7 percent chance of that happening.

Look at the middle of the lottery: Teams with the sixth- through ninth-worst records have (in some cases) doubled their chances of landing in the top five.

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The traded picks

There are three protected or traded picks to know about in the lottery, along with projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index on where they land:

Mavericks-Hawks

The Mavericks owe their pick to the Hawks if it falls outside the top five. If not conveyed, the pick remains top-five protected in 2020, falls to top-three protected until 2022 and becomes unprotected in 2023.

Grizzlies-Celtics

The Grizzlies owe their pick to the Celtics if it falls outside the top eight. If not conveyed, the pick falls to top-six protected in 2020 and then becomes unprotected in 2021.

Kings-Celtics-76ers

The Kings owe their pick to the Celtics unprotected, but the 76ers will get the selection if this becomes the No. 1 pick. In that scenario, Boston would get Philadelphia’s pick.

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Top prospects and mock draft projections

Zion is the clear No. 1 overall player. But which prospects will make up the rest of the lottery?

Here’s the top 14, based on intel and scouting from ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz.