Budget, votes on abortions, guns may haunt Republicans

April 21, 2008|By John Kennedy and Aaron Deslatte TALLAHASSEE BUREAU

TALLAHASSEE — Controversial votes on guns and abortion are combining with Florida's worst budget cuts in decades to sharply raise the political stakes for Gov. Charlie Crist and ruling Republicans in the Legislature's homestretch.

The $1.4.billion that lawmakers seek to slash from schools and health and human-services programs is certain to be turned into campaign ads against state Republicans seeking to maintain their 12-year grip on power in this fall's elections.

Legislation allowing Floridians with concealed weapons permits to bring their guns to work has already sharply divided the Republican base.

And a looming vote to overhaul Florida's abortion law threatens to splinter Republican senators as the Legislature enters its final scheduled two weeks.

Though he has kept his distance so far, Crist is clearly trying to defuse a potential effect at the polls by urging Republican leaders to draw more deeply on state reserves to avoid cutting programs serving the poor, elderly and disabled.

Crist plans to play a central role campaigning for Republican lawmakers this fall and helping the party's presumptive presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain, carry the nation's biggest battleground state.

"At this point, he is trying to protect Republicans from themselves. There's no question about it," said Rep. Jack Seiler, D-Wilton Manors.

Even influential Republicans acknowledge concern.

"This may be the time we're going to see if a budget can get somebody un-elected," said Brian Ballard, a lobbyist and major Republican and Crist fundraiser.

Democrats have added a net of eight House seats since 2006. And a recent poll by Quinnipiac University showed public approval of state lawmakers at just 32 percent.

In the House, where Republicans hold a 77-43 majority, Democrats think at least 10 GOP seats could be in play.

Cuts to programs serving transplant patients, nursing homes and to the disabled - who rallied at the Capitol last week - are certain to be exploited by Democrats this fall.

So will the measure allowing Florida's 500,000 holders of concealed weapons permits to bring their guns to work, if they keep them locked in their cars.

It was a victory for the National Rifle Association, which backed the measure.

But Florida's usually Republican-friendly business community fiercely fought the measure. Democrats think this could soften Republican support by such groups as the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Retail Federation.

Similarly, Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster, R-Winter Garden, wants a vote on legislation requiring all women seeking an abortion to first view an ultrasound image, unless they sign a waiver. The measure has already cleared the House, over opposition from Democrats and abortion rights groups.

But it's dividing Senate Republicans, with some fearing the vote will endure as a rallying issue for Democratic challengers in the fall.

"I just wish we could stay away from these kinds of issues this year," said Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville.

Crist is scrambling to pass a health insurance program designed, in part, to take the plight of 3.8.million uninsured Floridians off the table as an issue in November. It passed the Senate unanimously but has been blocked by the more-conservative House, which is advancing a proposal more friendly to the insurance industry. A frustrated Crist last week warned Republicans that voters are watching.

"What you told [voters] during the course of a campaign is that you're going to go to Tallahassee and fight for them," Crist said. "You damn sure better do it, or you won't be back here. And you shouldn't."

While Democrats are buoyed by the Republican in-fighting, GOP legislative leaders dismiss the discord.

They say Floridians do not want the tax increases proposed by Democrats to ease a $3.billion budget shortfall brought on by the faltering economy.

Legislators this week will begin final negotiations on a $65.billion budget for the year beginning July 1, an amount almost 10 percent smaller than they approved last May.

Slashing spending, even if it means sacrificing some critical programs, is "fiscally prudent," said Speaker-designate Ray Sansom, R-Destin.