Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on August 30. Solar wind
speed ranged between 485 and 641 km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 114.0. The planetary A
index was 17 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.6).
Three hour interval K indices: 45333332 (planetary), 45333432 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2-B3 level.

At midnight there were 7 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 2 C class events was recorded
during the day.

Region 10442 added a few spots during the first half of the day, however, these spots were gone by midnight. Flare:
C1.4 long duration event peaking at 05:14 UTC.
Region 10444 lost nearly all penumbral area while a few small spots emerged.
Region 10445 decayed and will likely become spotless today. Flare: C1.2 at 18:02 UTC.
Region 10447 decayed slowly and could become spotless today.
Region 10448 did not change significantly and remained quiet.
Region 10449 was quiet and unchanged.
Region 10450 was quiet and stable. Magnetograms suggest that regions 10449 and 10450 are one region with region 10449
containing the leading negative spots and region 10450 having the positive trailing spots.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active until the first half of September 1. On September 1-5 a high speed stream from coronal
hole CH54 will likely cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along north-south paths
is poor to fair. [Trans
Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración
(Venezuela). Several other frequencies had stations from Venezuela as well].

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10441

2003.08.21

1

N15W80

0020

AXX

spotless

10442

2003.08.22

2

1

S12W35

0080

CSO

classification was HSX
at midnight

10444

2003.08.25

6

14

N09W33

0040

DSO

10445

2003.08.25

4

5

N03W32

0040

DSO

classification was BXO
at midnight, area 0010

10446

2003.08.27

S23W03

plage

10447

2003.08.28

2

2

N15W37

0010

HRX

classification was AXX
at midnight

10448

2003.08.28

9

17

N20E06

0090

DSO

classification was DAO
at midnight

10449

2003.08.28

4

4

S15E39

0130

DAO

10450

2003.08.29

1

3

S18E52

0070

HSX

probably the trailing
spots of region 10449

10451

2003.08.29

S10W78

plage

10452

2003.08.29

1

S06W05

0000

AXX

spotless

S245

emerged on
2003.08.29

N24W45

plage

S246

emerged on
2003.08.29

N10W18

plage

Total spot count:

30

46

SSN:

120

116

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.07

173.5

99.6

102.7 (-3.5)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

98.7 (-4.0)

2002.09

175.8

109.6

94.6 (-4.1)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

90.5 (-4.1)

2002.11

168.7

95.5

85.2 (-5.3)

2002.12

157.2

80.8

82.0 (-3.2)

2003.01

144.0

79.7

81.0 (-1.0)

2003.02

124.5

46.0

(77.2 predicted, -3.8)

2003.03

131.4

61.1

(71.5 predicted, -5.7)

2003.04

126.4

60.0

(66.6 predicted, -4.9)

2003.05

115.7

55.2

(61.7 predicted, -4.9)

2003.06

129.3

77.4

(57.7 predicted, -4.0)

2003.07

127.7

85.0

(54.1 predicted, -3.6)

2003.08

122.5 (1)

111.0 (2)

(52.3 predicted, -1.8)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.