Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-exThe remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.

Twenty years ago todayOn September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.

I'm going to say this and I personally don't care who likes it or if I get banned, I'm starting to lose faith in the NHC, I know they supposedly are the experts, I'm nothing weather wise & never claimed to be, but if I had put my faith in their forecast in 2004 with Ivan, instead of following my common sense and observations I'd be alot worst off today, case closed, jmo.

What people have seen earlier was moisture from 07L getting absorbed, not the actual circulation. It's still moving west, but slowly. It's moving into a very small sweet spot, but knowing 07L, it may not do much. We'll see what happens tonight, 07Ls last chance!

Thanx Reed..so even if Fred does find that sweet spot, the best he should be able to manage is a strong tropical depression or storm? Or do you think he'll go higher and become a low level Cat 1 b4 landfall?

Quoting Seasidecove:Now will Fred get picked up by this surface trough or is the trough to weak to have any major effect on him?

What people have seen earlier was moisture from 07L getting absorbed, not the actual circulation. It's still moving west, but slowly. It's moving into a very small sweet spot, but knowing 07L, it may not do much. We'll see what happens tonight, 07Ls last chance!

07Ls burst is just like every burst it had, not impressed yet. Hours away till the westerlies take over, very low chance for regeneration. Yesterday afternoon I mentioned a ramp up before landfall, but last night I saw where the westerly shear was, probably won't do that. A correction from what I said yesterday. :)We live and learn people, no need for bold statements because they're not right most of the time, opinions are more then welcomed!

1. A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...ISLOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLYDISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OFTHIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ASIT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ISCURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THEPOTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWOAS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS AMEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACOUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HASDIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

The NHC stopped running their statistical models on it. Upper level winds may gradually become more favorable and should the circulation still be intact then it may organize. The odds are against it. It's having a hard time firing convection over the center.