Tom Izzo To Cavs Probability: Rising

Just because everything is happening all at once and these things are the variety of news that goes yes-no-yes-no-yes-no in the modern world, here's a random 10PM update on one of the Stories Of Our Time.

The Only Colors isn't using DEFCON to measure its Izzo departure panic level, but on a scale of 1-10 they're at 4.5 and KJ is still "well under 50%." He admits that's moving towards things he hopes instead of things he thinks, and I might be in the same boat: I think they're inching just over 50% but admit that is also a necessarily biased opinion.

I've got some reasons, though. TOC appears to be banking on the idea that Izzo will do a Billy Donovan-esque pullout, because the people on the team are predicting a departure. Delvon Roe's dad:

Blanton, who lives near Cleveland, has not spoken with Izzo. But he said he thinks Izzo will end up taking the Cavs job. "My opinion is, I think he's gonna leave," Blanton said. "When you keep it in the air this long. ... I don' t know if he's happy where he's at right now."

That's considerably less encouraging* than the original Rexrode blog post, which just mentioned Blanton's opinion that Izzo was out without giving the details. Blanton appears to be guessing.

On the other hand, this opinion may have come from his son and appears to be an opinion shared by multiple current Spartan players:

Sources have told The Plain Dealer that Michigan State players left a meeting with Tom Izzo Tuesday night believing he was going to leave to accept Gilbert's offer to become the next Cavaliers coach. Izzo didn't tell them that, he called the meeting to acknowledge reports that he'd been offered the job, but players left afraid they were about to lose their coach.

And as if on cue given the Ethics Throwdown this weekend, Cleveland blog Waiting For Next Yearjust plain says Izzo is headed to Cleveland:

Sources close to WFNY have informed us that Tom Izzo has told his players at Michigan State that he plans on taking the Cavaliers job. Our sources have heard directly from players on the MSU team that Izzo informed them this week that he is planning on making the move up to the NBA level under the ownership of MSU grad Dan Gilbert.

This has caused much consternation on the twitters from local beatwriters, ESPN's Pat Forde, and various other national basketball reporting folk. And… yeah… they're not wrong. WFNY's report has been directly refuted by multiple sources, with direct quotes from Blanton. This is yet another example of someone jumping the gun.

…is wildly provincial given the events of the past month—which have seen a parade of false reports about conference expansion—let alone the few months that have passed since the Chicago Sun-Times refused to let the Stoops-to-ND rumors die. Mainstream media folk pretending that blogs have cornered the market on erroneous reports are just as annoying as bloggers blithely stating that the proper amount of ethics is none.

Still: WFNY could have broken a major story if they'd just, you know, gotten it right. I don't necessarily blame them. As I discovered during Michigan's coaching search, and the Sun-Times will discover sometime in 2015 when it finally becomes clear to them that Bob Stoops is not Notre Dame's next coach, these situations are nightmares to report. Solid information is thin on the ground, minds can change in an instant, and certain parties are motivated to leak information to get what they want, whether it's true or false. Getting something wrong is going to happen.

But now that there are direct quotes contradicting their story they should give readers as much detail as they can about why they believe what they do and leave the decision in the reader's hand. They're "standing by" their original report after multiple people have called them liars. It's time to stop hiding behind "sources." That's a Sun-Times move. Here's this blog's primordial example from the coaching search, and the ur-example from the Morgan Trent Broken Hand New Media Fiasco. As it is, even if Izzo does take the job they were just wrong first.

[UPDATE: WFNY has done the full data dump suggested here. I still think they would have gotten a lot less attention straight away and looked better long term if they had gone for the soft sell, but it's a major step in the right direction.]

*(I'm not even going to pretend that I'm not pulling like a mofo for Izzo to leave. Blah blah blah, Michigan is its own program, etc: lies. The absolute best State can do is get a coach just as good, and the chances of that are small.)

based on the trend of my wishes coming true however, I picture Tom at a press conference with an emotional "I'm staying at MSU" ala Schembechler's final decision per Texas A&M: "Frankly, I've come to the conclusion that there are things more important in this world than money. For that reason, I've decided to stay at Michigan."

Why would LeBron want to stay in Cleveland and put career in the hands of a college coach? This just doesn't make any sense. And it will be extremely annoying when Izzo stays and the Sparty faithful play the "he turned down $30M/LeBron to stay at MSU" card.

Beilien doesn't appear to be attracting the same type of players as Izzo. I don't see Izzo's departure correlating to more/better recruits for Michigan. Izzo leaving probably does more for the Indiana/Ohio State/Illinois contingency.

I'm not sure how offers translate into actual players that we have on our roster. How many players on Michigan's current roster were also 'offered' by MSU??? I'm pretty sure it wasn't many if any. My comment wasn't about 'offers' it was about actual 'commitments' and the type of players Beilein... yes Beilein (not Amaker) has attracted to Michigan. This isn't a dig at Beilein because I really like his style. I just know it's not the same as MSU.

Ziegler went to CMU so how does MSU losing Izzo change that for us anyways? I'd like to see Izzo's leaving as a positive for Michigan's bball program, but realistically it might not mean much at all.

The Michigan part of me says go, Izzo, and bring Sparty down a notch or five.

The Purdue part of me says go, Izzo, right now, and if you can get a couple of Spartans to transfer on your way out the door, that would work too. Championships don't grow on trees, and I don't really care what happens at other schools to make them possible, I wouldn't value them any less.

I still have my doubts about Izzo going to Cleveland, since his coaching style seemingly doesn't make sense in the NBA - try to convince a bunch of guys making $5M+ a year to rebound and play hard defense while being conservative on offense - and he could just stay at MSU and become a god to them. Of course, if he signs with the Cavs, then that is a major sign that LeBron is returning, and would certainly put a crimp in LeBron's team speed-dating. I expect this to be a whole lot of nothing, with Izzo returning to the Spartans because he "cares about the kids" and MSU continues to roll out Final 4 teams.

Lynn Henning says so in his column. MSU has such a smart athletic director and such a brilliant school president, they're near infallible and surely they can improve on Izzo:

But the second incarnation of Izzo is achievable. There will be differences, and those differences could actually be positive. No person is irreplaceable (all right, I amend that: Johnny Carson was irreplaceable).

As close as they are to Izzo, if you think for a moment Simon and Hollis are cowed by the possible need to hire a basketball coach, think again.

I would love to see Michigan State basketball fall apart if Izzo leaves. However, when you look at the situation obejectively, he has built such a successful program over the last 15 years that the foundation for MSU basketball will most likely be strong enough to continue it's success after he departs for the mistake on the lake.

Bo Schembechler always said that when he left Michigan, he wanted to leave the next coach a highly talented team to make the transition much easier and to insure that the program would continue to succeed after he was gone. That is exactly what Bo did and the success of Michigan football kept rolling after he was gone. If Izzo takes the Cavs job, the new coach next season will take over a team with a high level of talent and experiance that should contend for a National Championship.

Remember, Kentucky won the national championship with Tubby Smith the season after Petino left for the Celtics.

It really does matter who MSU brings in. If they brought in Brian Ellerbe that program implodes before he steps on campus. I'm not about to pretend that MSU is untouchable and no one else should. Whoever the next coach is will definitely affect the future of MSU's program. Maybe not year 1.. or 2... but beyond that it will be a little hazy. Need some examples?? Ok...

Nebraska football after Tom Osborne...

Indiana basketball after Bob Knight

Notre Dame football after Lou Holtz

All those coaches left solid foundations/traditions behind them that didn't survive after they departed.

Nebraska football was pretty successful after Osbourne left. Frank Solich took them to the BCS National Championship game and his record was 58-19 in 6 seasons. That is pretty much 10 wins per season...not too shabby.

Bob Knight was fired right before the season started and Indiana hired a coach that Knight thought was an idiot. Izzo will pick the next coach at MSU.

Lou Holtz left Notre Dame in shame and he did not win a Bowl Game during his last three seasons. Izzo has made 2 final fours in a row.

Ellerbe...really! That is not worth a response.

I will give you some good examples to argue my point:

1. Roy Williams/Bill Self...Kansas is doing ok I think.

2. Dean Smith/Bill Guthridge..Guthride took Carolina to 2 Final Fours.

3. Ben Howland/Jamie Dixon...Pitt has been a serious contender in the NCAA tourney during the last 5-8 years.

4. Rick Pitino/Tubby Smith...won a national title.

5. Bill Self/Bruce Weber

All of those coaches left their programs when they were at the top of their game, just like Izzo will if he takes a job in the worst state ever.

If all these situations were so good, why did they go through so many coaches so fast? Wasn't good enough at Nebraska, obviously, since they got rid of Solich. Nothing says Izzo will pick the next coach. Holtz didn't leave in "Shame". Hardly.

Self is a good example. NC wasn't happy at all, and had to steal Roy from Kansas to be happy with their program again. Pitt's done pretty well, as has Weber (but not great). The Tubby one is laughable. Who is coaching Kentucky now? Not Tubby. Not the guy after him...

The point is, when coaching the players left behind by the legend, yes, they'll still be real good for a few years. But almost all those program ending up sliding, and not living up to expectations, that caused them to switch coaches again, and falling down hard. MSU isn't immune to that.

I never said MSU was immune to fall off. My point was to simply say that Izzo (like it or not) has created a powerhouse and a brand name. I hope Michigan State is horrible for the rest of time, but chances are they will still be in the top 3 of the big ten year after year and compete for Final Fours. Bo's legacy has lasted for 40 years and he only coached 21 of those seasons.

Yes, and Lou left in 1996. Not in "disgrace". He wasn't fired, or pushed out. They hired is assistant as the new head coach! You don't do that if you think the staff cheated. Yeah, they went on probation, and it was Lou's fault, but they didn't hold it against him. They built him a frickin statue in 2008...you don't do that for "disgraced" coaches.

Nebraska surely does. But that's what happens when a legend leaves. If the next guy doesn't do as great as he did, fans get restless and force him out. And then it really hits the fan.

Guthridge was a caretaker, nothing more. And then they fell apart after his recruiting waned and his replacements floundered.

What happened to Tubby was. He was a good coach, maybe not great. Won with Pitino's players. But Kentucky wasn't happy with how much he was winning. Much like Nebraska. Why else leave one of the greatest programs of all time for Minnesota? And then they hired a disastrous replacement. And then hired a big cheater to revive them.

Could MSU have a smooth transition, and not miss a beat? Sure, it could happen. But there's a lot of history of it not working out that way. And what made Michigan great was it was rare in that accomplishment. Most of the other examples go the other way (Woody, Bear, etc).

Lou Holtz: 23-11-1 (NO BOWL VICTORIES) in last 3 seasons at Notre Dame. They built him a statue because the Notre Dame administration and fans are delusional. Hence, they wanna keep their independence.

Because it's not how the coach right after them did...it's how the program reacted to losing the legend. And every single one of them other than Lou was pushed out because those lofty numbers you put up weren't good enough compared to the guy who left. It's ridiculous...but that's what happens after a legend leaves.

And no one was saying Lou finished at the top of his game. Just that he wasn't forced out in disgrace. In fact, the delusions you speak of speak AGAINST your theory that he was.

By that reasoning Lloyd was forced out....etc, etc. Tinfoil hat shop down the street.

It's the LeBron. If he leaves and doesn't have the future best player in the game, then yeah, it's going to hurt him everywhere but the wallet. But who could pass up the opportunity to coach the guy who will be the best player in the game?

the whole Bo-to-Texas A&M episode. I still don't see it happening. And Izzo, like Bo, will get to have the requisite tearful "I just couldn't do it" press conference wherein his legacy will be even further cemented. Or something

That long-term credibility is simultaneously important with pageviews, and that damaging your brand with false stories, while advantageous in the short-run, can be fatal in the long-run (see: Free Press). Part of what I love about this blog is that Brian seems to balance interesting stories with ensuring his own credibility very well (calling rumors rumors, not stretching past what the real story/headline is, correcting information as it becomes available, etc.).

come true and the Freep is still around and probably gets more page views because of us actively disliking them.

My examples were more of the Deadspin and Bleacher Report variety, which print junk but are still around. Page views still rule and absolutely worst case scenario is to "apologize" and cite misleading "sources" or changed circumstances.

Is it just me that feels like rooting for Izzo to leave so that MSU will implode and we'll look better relative to them is very Sparty-esque? C'mon, Michigan - we're not going to be good at basketball until we're good at basketball, and MSU imploding just makes the overall Big Ten brand worse. Izzo leaving MSU is a loss for college basketball - as a fan of college sports, I'd like to see him stay (and then have us start actually beating him of course, but rooting for him to leave seems more like giving up on our part).

I qualify this with one caveat - if Izzo left to go to the Cavs, got fired in two years, and then we replaced Beilein with Izzo, that'd be hilarious.

I don't like Michigan State. I don't like Tom Izzo. I don't like Mark Dantonio. I don't like their female president named Lou. I don't like green. I don't like white. I don't like East Lansing.

There is nothing good about who they are and what they do. Therefore, I hope Izzo leaves and the one remotely positive they can identify with crumbles. This is not as much about Michigan as it is my dislike for everything Spartan.