Oct 9, 2011

DAY 131

The disturbance that has been pestering the Florida peninsula since Friday, has now been designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center. An organizing surface low is located off the east coast near Melbourne. The visible image from outer-space is showing that cyclonic turning in the clouds.

(Invest 93L)

There are actually 2 surface lows that have formed in this large disturbed area. The one on the east coast, and there's another in the Gulf of Mexico. This may be the reason the computer models were initially split on the initiation of this system. It also shows how unorganized this disturbance really is.

The low on the east coast is the dominant low. The vorticity for that low is actually quite strong. It is bringing tropical storm conditions to the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds in Brevard and Volusia county have been in the mid 40's with gusts higher than 50 mph. If this Invest could close off a surface circulation, it would be upgraded to a tropical depression. But it is about move over the landmass near northern Brevard County, so it is unlikely to develop further. The NHC is only giving Invest 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Invest 93L has been a heavy rainmaker as well. Especially in Central Florida. The image below is storm total rainfall estimated by Doppler radar. There are a few spots along the Osceola/Brevard county line that have received 10 plus inches thus far. 6 plus inches is prevalent across the board.