Albany is hot, thanks to jobs

The whole of New York is greater than the sum of its parts, at least where the economy is concerned.

New York state earned four stars in bizjournals.com Demographics Daily's economic ratings for February, even though none of its metropolitan areas received more than three stars.

Demographics Daily issues monthly economic ratings for 50 states and the District of Columbia and 224 metropolitan areas, based on population, income and employment trends. The strongest 10 percent in each category--five states and 22 metros--receive five-star ratings. The weakest places get one star.

Demographics Daily is an online newsletter owned by American City Business Journals Inc., which is the parent company of the Business Review. Its Web address is bizjournals.bcentral.com/journals/demographics.

New York's fortunes have been rising since autumn. The state climbed from two stars in October to three stars the following three months, then to four stars last month. The latter is its best score since Demographics Daily launched its ratings in May 2000.

The Empire State's greatest strength is its per capita income of $33,890, which ranks fifth nationally. New York also ranks 12th in income-growth rate and 17th in employment growth. And its unemployment rate of 4.2 percent matches the national average.

New York's biggest problem is its population base, which is virtually stagnant. The state's population is increasing just 0.9 percent per year.

Demographics Daily rates states and metros on separate scales, making it possible for New York's statewide score to top the ratings earned by all of its metropolitan areas. New York City and Binghamton, both at three stars, are strongest economically among the state's metros.

Demographics Daily's report on New York includes hundreds of statistics for each of the state's 10 metropolitan areas and 62 counties. A new report is issued each Wednesday, covering one of the nation's 13 sections.

New York is one of four states with populations above 15 million that are classified as sections by themselves. The other nine sections consist of three to seven states each. Statistics for a specific section are updated every three months.

Highlights of the report follow:

Three hottest New York metros

1. New York City: The state's biggest metro also has the most growth potential. The New York City area (which extends into three other states) is projected to add 2.8 million residents by 2025, an increase of 13.9 percent. No other metro in the state is expected to top 8 percent. New York City also leads the state in small-business growth, registering a five-year gain of 7 percent.

2. Binghamton: This upstate metro added 3,200 jobs during the past year, equaling a 2.6 percent increase. Its unemployment rate is a comfortably low 3.3 percent. And Binghamton has the fastest income-growth rate in the state, 5.3 percent per year.

3. Albany: The state's Capital Region has its problems, such as a projected population decline of 0.9 percent between now and 2005. But it also has its pluses, such as its unemployment rate of 3.1 percent, the lowest in New York.

Three coldest New York metros

1. Buffalo: Buffalo currently faces the worst economic problems of any New York metro. Its population dropped 4 percent from 1990 to 1999. Its number of small businesses fell 2.3 percent in five years. And its unemployment rate is above the national average.

2. Elmira: Elmira's population declined 3.6 percent in the 1990s, and it's projected to fall another 2.6 percent by 2010. At least the area's employment base is growing, but it's doing so at a snail's pace, adding just 400 jobs during the past year.

3. Rochester: The good news is that Rochester is a step ahead of nearby Buffalo. The bad news is that its economy is anemic in its own right, as evidenced by an annual job-growth rate of 0.9 percent and a projected population decline of 0.7 percent by 2005.