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Fantasy baseball 2014 sleepers: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

Nolan Arenado 2014

Colorado Rockies' Nolan Arenado hits a pop fly while batting against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a spring training baseball game Friday, Feb. 28, 2014, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado made a huge impact with his glove as a rookie and managed to keep his head above water at the plate. Long heralded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Arenado flashed a good contact bat that had potential for growth in his second full season.

Just how much room Arenado has to grow is a source of debate, which has relegated him to a late-round flier in most fantasy baseball leagues. Can Arenado blossom into a more dangerous hitter as a sophomore?

Overview: Defensive wizard who held his own as a rookie with a .267 average and 10 home runs.

Background: The former top prospect in the Rockies organization, Arenado quickly emerged as one of baseball’s best defensive players last season. … won a gold glove and ranked fourth in the majors in defensive WAR (3.6). … was the Rockies’ second-round pick in the 2009 amateur draft … spent four whole seasons in the minors, where he was mentioned among the game’s top 100 prospects before the 2011, ’12 and ’13 seasons. … adeptly handled every promotion he got, including the leap to Denver last April.

2013 stats: .267 avg., 10 HRs, 52 RBIs, 49 runs, 2 SB in 133 games.

Numbers and trends: Ranked 19th among third basemen with a 7.1 percent HR-to-FB ratio, which was magnified by pedestrian flyball rate (33.7%). … those ratios culminated in a pedestrian home run total (10). … made better contact as the season went on and hit .298 after the All-Star break. … didn’t capitalize on Coors Field advantage with just five homers at home and five more on the road. … strikeout and walk rates should both migrate toward minor league levels, likely meaning an uptick in all counting statistics.

Strengths: Is a strong contact hitter better known for gap power in the early stage of his career. … an adjustment to get better lift and take better advantage of his home-field could yield 20-homer power as early as this season. … as he matures, can push to become a .300 hitter with league-average power. … as one of the game’s best defensive players, he will always have a place in the lineup and long leash during cold spells.

Risk factors: Additional power is no sure thing after he hit 49 homers in 432 career games in the minors. … doesn’t have elite athleticism, which bogs down his runs total and eliminates any chance of stolen bases. … could be too many adjustments away from anything above .280-15-80 in his sophomore season.

Average draft position: 217.9 ESPN; 202.3 Yahoo!

Verdict: Lands on the low-ceiling, high-floor list with potential for average power and run production. Still, the Coors Field factor can’t be ignored and can magnify any improvements Arenado makes to his game. Worth targeting above ADP.