FX Deposits in China

This Great Graphic comes from the Also Spracht Analyst blog. It decomposes the strong shift into foreign currencies from the yuan by Chinese businesses and households. In July, the household demand for foreign currencies was largely flat. It has increased by about a fifth from a year ago. Foreign currency deposits from from non-financial institutions was up to US$287 billion and now is up almost 85% from a year ago. When the yuan was strong, Chinese officials sought to ease some of the pressure by liberalizing--making it easier--to export savings. There has also been a change in yuan's outlook. Previously appreciation was expected, but as the economy has weakened and growth rather than inflation is the main policy challenge, modest depreciation is more widely anticipated. The yuan is off about 1% this year against the dollar. The 12-month non-deliverable forward implies about a 1.5% appreciation of the yuan, though this is also a function of supply and demand offshore.