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I was born in the mid 80s, so I did not follow Morris during his prime; but I did come to baseball sentience during the twilight of his career (and I was keenly aware of him as a young Braves fan in 1991), and I can't remember anyone ever treating him like a HOF'er there at the end. He was just a guy; one of those random old-guy pitcher baseball cards that filled out the collection, like Tom Candiotti, Charlie Liebrandt, or Dennis Martinez.

That's what gets me about the recollections about Morris; I was raptly assimilating all the baseball knowledge I could when his career should have been receiving his end-of-career hagiographies. I'm pretty sure I would have remembered him being thought of as a this kind of guy back then. It never happened. He's had the greatest PR campaign ever, or something.

There's a strong desire among many to have an 80s era starter in the Hall, and there's no longer a possibility of pushing for Stieb (or Martinez) as an alternative. Many of the others had abortive runs - Stewart, Gooden, Saberhagen. I'm not sure if Morris makes it, but it would at least be comprehensible to me, though he doesn't stack up well to much of anyone else in the Hall.

The 84 Tigers have two obvious, qualified choices - Trammell and Whitaker. They also have HoM player Darrell Evans. Lance Parrish and Chet Lemon are on the wrong side of the line but in the next 150 players. They weren't lacking talent.

That's just naming guys I am extremely confident will be elected. Obviously someone like Schilling or Tim Raines could make it in and give some of those more HOFers, but I'm just naming the obvious ones.

The best candidate on the '97 Marlins is Sheffield, who has some PED and personality issues. Kevin Brown, though he has both of those as well, the latter in spades. (He's also already dropped off the ballot, of course.) It doesn't look like the 2002 Angels are going to have someone, unless you think Scioscia gets in as a manager. If Frank Thomas gets in, that's the guy for the '05 White Sox, no one has a real chance unless Buehrle wins 300 games or something. Similiarly, I don't think anyone on the '08 Phillies is getting in. A lot of guys on the most recent Giants teams aren't getting in, but enough of them (Posey, Cain, even Sandoval and Lincecum) are young enough that they could do it.

Interesting that pre-1995 there's only two teams without a Hall of Famer, whereas we could easily have 3 since.

Taking the long term view, all of the PED guys, the guys who are obviously qualified Hall of Famers but won't be voted in by the BBRAA because PEDs, will go into the Hall of Famer eventually. Maybe not before they're dead, but 100 years from now they will all be in. So calling Ivan Rodriguez a Hall of Famer for that exercise is fine. So that gives the 2005 White Sox Frank Thomas, and Gary Sheffield will almost certainly represent the 1997 Marlins eventually.

Nobody on the 2002 Angels or 2008 Phillies is going into the Hall of Fame, however (Cole Hamels is the 2008 Phillies' last chance; good luck with that). And as for the 1984 Tigers, look, it's not our fault most BBRAA members are dimwitted or juvenile and refused to vote their two obviously qualified players in.

He may (or may not) have a PED issue -- if so, that's presumably the kiss of death for his HoF chances.

I think if you review these teams 40 years hence (as we are for every World Series winner through 1972), some guys that don't look like Hall of Famers now (Sheffield, Brown) may become Hall of Famers through some future Vet's Committee or newfangled mechanism used by Cooperstown. It's not really an adequate comparison if you simply look at how the BBWAA is treating the current guys vs. how the BBWAA and Vets committees judged the players of older teams.

Granted, the 2002 Angels still won't have a Hall of Fame player, but that's an entirelly (absence of) merit-based distinction.

Frank Thomas was a very loud PED denouncer and offered to be tested every day and meant it, right? I can see no way he can be tossed in the "suspected user" bin, other than for the loonies who categorically reject everyone who played in the 1990s.

Is this a common thought, that Thomas isn't likely to make the Hall of Fame? Wouldn't any of the arguments against him (steroid suspicion) also go against Pujols?

Obviously, I would vote for Thomas in a second. And I know his PED credentials are as clean as anyone's can be. But I think he's going to suffer from the PED-era taint in general, and that he spent many, many years as a DH. I suppose he and Pudge are probably about the same amount of likely.

That's a good call by #13, by the way, Miggy Cabrera seems a pretty good bet to make it in. I don't see Brown ever getting in though, he won "only" 211 games, never won a Cy Young award, won 20 games only once, etc. etc. That doesn't seem like a guy the VC is going to put in.

Thomas will go in first ballot. Second ballot in a worst-case scenario. Smoltz goes in within his first few years. I'm not sure about Pudge, but I'm guessing he's a relatively quick induction barring any new PED revelations.

Sheffield's probably screwed for BBWAA induction. It's funny that Sheffield and Brown are deserving Hall of Famers from the '97 Marlins, but they're both likely to get overlooked due to a combination of PEDs and being big jerks.

Not in the class of Stan the Man as a ballplayer, but my own experience (a 90-minute, one-on-one interview that remains one of my most treasured professional opportunities), plus everything I've read from others, would put Brooks Robinson at the top of the heap of any great guy conversations.

1995 Braves - Smoltz will make it, and McGriff probably has a VC shot decades down the road

Yankees - Boggs is already in for the '96 squad, and Raines has a shot for the '96 and '98 teams. Clemens is too good not to eventually make it for the '99 and '00 teams, ditto A-Rod for '09. TBD for Cano and Sabathia for '09. Bernie and Posada have an outside shot at being VC selections, right?

2001 D-Backs (I accidentally typed D-Bags before I corrected myself!) - Schilling will make it

2003 Marlins - As noted above, Miggy C is looking very likely

2004 Red Sox - Schilling again, plus Manny might be too good to keep out forever. Papi has a chance

2005 White Sox - Yes, Thomas is a lock. Please not Konerko

2006 Cards - Don't Edmonds and/or Rolen have shots at being possible VC choices, depending on how far SABR recognition has advanced by the time they're eligible?

2007 Red Sox - Didn't have Pedro like you listed, but still had Schilling, Manny, and Papi

The nice/average selfish/####### distribution among professional athletes is exactly the same as the distribution among the population at large, in my experience.

I'd be surprised by that. I think tremendous success at anything, not just baseball but any endeavor, often requires certain traits that don't really lend themselves to geniality or other characteristics we apply to nice guys. It's not automatic, as Stan the Man shows, but I do think there's probably a tradeoff more often than not.

I'm pretty sure Miggy Cabrera would go in even if his career ended now. All of the toy measurements on b-ref score him as already qualified, certainly.

Sad but true. Hes 6th in wRC+ since 1980.... among First Basemen, most with decline years. By the time Miggys career ends and he has his decline phase, he wont be top ten among his eras first basemen in wOBA, wRC+, any useful rate stats. He will also be one of the worst defenders and baserunners from that group.

Miggy HOF case is built entirely around the precise placement of accomplishments. Value in BA/SLG, not walks, or baserunning, or avoiding double plays, or defense. Hitting more HRs than anyone else in a year he had a ton of baserunners in front of him and gullible MVP voters hungry for a mythical triple crown. Being in right place, right time on good teams. Being great at things voters can see and remember, being awful at things they ignore or forget. Doing it all in an era where much better first basemen have been disqualified due to, or tainted by, PEDs.

i think Miggys induction should be used to open the halls first beer league softball wing.

Interesting that pre-1995 there's only two teams without a Hall of Famer, whereas we could easily have 3 since

Partly it's that champions are somewhat more random now thanks to the expanded playoffs. Partly it's a matter of definition, though. As we remember less about a player, the fact that he played on champions becomes a self-defining part of his case, as with Lombardi, Lazzeri, Rizzuto, Fox, Gordon. So players from these long-ago champions keep getting added ...

I'd be surprised by that. I think tremendous success at anything, not just baseball but any endeavor, often requires certain traits that don't really lend themselves to geniality or other characteristics we apply to nice guys. It's not automatic, as Stan the Man shows, but I do think there's probably a tradeoff more often than not.

I used to think this way, and it still seems logical to me. But the more athletes I've gotten the chance to talk to and spend time around, the less experience seems to bear that out.

But athletes, especially professional athletes, live in a different, very small and very insulated world from ours. Within that world I think they're jerks, normal and nice guys in about the same percentages as people in general are here in the real world. Much of their interaction with the outside world, however (media, fans) comes as an intrusion to them and they tend to react to it with varying degrees of hostility. Which makes them seem to us like jerks.

But athletes, especially professional athletes, live in a different, very small and very insulated world from ours. Within that world I think they're jerks, normal and nice guys in about the same percentages as people in general are here in the real world. Much of their interaction with the outside world, however (media, fans) comes as an intrusion to them and they tend to react to it with varying degrees of hostility. Which makes them seem to us like jerks.

Possibly. I can't help but think the focus on self necessary to become a top-level anything, on top of the way we enable bad behavior from the gifted from such an early age, wouldn't lend itself to strong character development.

OTOH, during my days as a sportswriter, most of my interactions with high-level athletes were pretty positive, so my personal experience matches yours. (For the record, most of the beat writers were also really nice fellas. Columnists were much more likely to be ########).

Don't Edmonds and/or Rolen have shots at being possible VC choices, depending on how far SABR recognition has advanced by the time they're eligible?

I wouldn't 100% rule out either Edmonds or Rolen from BBWAA consideration. Edmonds isn't on the ballot until 2016, and Rolen still isn't retired, so as long as they survives the first couple years, they'll be on the ballot until 2030 or so. That's a lot of time for old BBWAA voters to die off and new, better-informed ones to take their place.

Miggy HOF case is built entirely around the precise placement of accomplishments. Value in BA/SLG, not walks, or baserunning, or avoiding double plays, or defense. Hitting more HRs than anyone else in a year he had a ton of baserunners in front of him and gullible MVP voters hungry for a mythical triple crown. Being in right place, right time on good teams. Being great at things voters can see and remember, being awful at things they ignore or forget. Doing it all in an era where much better first basemen have been disqualified due to, or tainted by, PEDs.

Miguel Cabrera as a Hall of Famer tomorrow would be pretty bad. Miguel Cabrera, however, is only 29 years old. He's very likely to do enough with his bat alone in the next five years to be a perfectly worthy HoFer.

A comparison, first nine full seasons in the league, listed best to worst by B-Ref WAR:

Cabrera wasn't quite as good as McCovey, but we're comparing McCovey's age 25-33 seasons to Cabrera age 21-29. Willie McCovey, like Miggy, was a poor fielder and a poor baserunner with a whomping power bat that could cover all his deficiencies. I don't think there's anything wrong with McCovey as a Hall of Famer, and I expect Cabrera will get there, too.

2007 Red Sox - Didn't have Pedro like you listed, but still had Schilling, Manny, and Papi

Oops. If Manny really gets slammed for PED use--he will--and Schilling gets caught in the ballot shuffle--unlikely, but possible--the '07 Sox could end up without a player. I tend to think that's really unlikely, but I'm surprised that it is at least plausible.

Incidentally, I had also forgotten Coco Crisp was on that Red Sox team. For a team that won a World Series relatively recently, they're awfully forgettable for me.

If Cabrera has any sort of "rest of his career", I'd say he's an easy HOFer. If you look at the top hitters through age 29, it's a Who's Who of inner-circle guys; Cabrera shows up rarely but his numbers are often just below the top-10.

Incidentally, I had also forgotten Coco Crisp was on that Red Sox team. For a team that won a World Series relatively recently, they're awfully forgettable for me.

The Red Sox got him as part of the Andy Marte shuffle before 2006. I remember Red Sox fans being excited by the acquisition of Marte and then puzzled by what they traded him for. Of course, everyone knows Marte turned into a star.

2007 Red Sox - Didn't have Pedro like you listed, but still had Schilling, Manny, and Papi

I also will enjoy watching Dustin Pedroia's career progress. Already has a ring and an MVP - if he adds a bunch of solid seasons with more All Star appearances and Gold Gloves, he has a good shot. Obviously not saying he's a lock - anything such as injuries can happen - but he does seem to be on the right trajectory.

Obviously not saying he's a lock - anything such as injuries can happen - but he does seem to be on the right trajectory.

I'm not sure I agree with that. He's put up some great seasons, but he's also going to be 29 and has only played 856 games. (For sake of comparison, but only insofar as giving perspective, Cano just had his age 29 season and he's played 1214 games.) The MVP is a nice boost, but he's only gotten MVP support in one other season ('11). We can of course debate phrases like "right trajectory" but if Pedroia falls victim to the early decline of 2B--and even if not--it seems a tough sell to say he'll earn election.

That pre/post 29 list is a fun example of Hank Aaron's consistent domination. He (and basically nobody else) shows up on most of the pre- and post- lists for the major counting stats - except for games played! Sorta like Rickey being two hall of famers in one.

As others have suggested, it's unheard of to hit as well through age 29 as Cabrera has and not make the Hall of Fame: the only remotely relevant example is Sherry Magee, who played over 100 years ago and is in the HOM, anyway.

There are many HOFers who are similar to Pedroia through age 28, but by contrast, there are also quite a few who missed by wide margins – including Petrocelli and Garciaparra, to name examples close to home. Which doesn't contradict Moeball's well-qualified point, but puts it in perspective.

As others have suggested, it's unheard of to hit as well through age 29 as Cabrera has and not make the Hall of Fame: the only remotely relevant example is Sherry Magee, who played over 100 years ago and is in the HOM, anyway

Again which supports my point of the HOF bias towards big whomping bats, despite their failings in every other aspect of the game.

And I wasn't saying that Miggy wouldn't likely be deserving of the HOF by his careers end, his consistent excellence at the plate is pretty amazing. I just find it sad that the standard criteria for the HOF is so simpleminded that he practically qualifies now, despite not being a top 5 first baseman of the past 2 decades.

Worst-case scenario, nobody goes into the Hall of Fame in the next ten years except Greg Maddux and people born over 130 years ago.

Locks over the next eight years are Maddux, Griffey, Randy, Biggio, and Chipper. I imagine that Schilling, Smoltz, Pedro, and Glavine also go in fairly easily. Frank Thomas and Vlad should probably go in depending on their ballot situation, but I don't see anything keeping them out, and I think Irod will be the first player with "suspicion of PED" to go in.(Either Irod or Bagwell, longshot is Piazza as the first with 'taint' to go in)

I just find it sad that the standard criteria for the HOF is so simpleminded that he practically qualifies now, despite not being a top 5 first baseman of the past 2 decades.

1. There have been some really, really good first basemen in the last two decades. Even with that being stated, it's not yet clear that Cabrera won't make the top 5 in the group.

2. Cabrera hasn't spent his entire career at first base - a plurality of his games have been there, but not a majority. If he plays third all year again next year, he'll have spent more time there. He appears to be en route to a Harmon Killebrew-type career - kills the ball and can field any corner position at just-above-embarassment level.

Even that is selling him short, since he has 2 batting titles, 2 home run titles, and 2 rings.

Miggy HOF case is built entirely around the precise placement of accomplishments. Value in BA/SLG, not walks, or baserunning, or avoiding double plays, or defense. Hitting more HRs than anyone else in a year he had a ton of baserunners in front of him and gullible MVP voters hungry for a mythical triple crown.

Yeah, everybody knows that batting average and slugging and home runs never won no ballgames! And driving in all those runners? That's just rude!

1. There have been some really, really good first basemen in the last two decades. Even with that being stated, it's not yet clear that Cabrera won't make the top 5 in the group.

Over the past 20 years, Miggy is 4th in ops+ among first baseman so on a rate stat, he is probably already there(of course no decline phase, but it's arguable he'll improve on his career ops+ over the next several years then decline to where he is at now) I think it's very likely that he will probably finish top five(past 30 years) when it's all said and done.

Few players increase their career OPS+ after the they turn 30. McGwire is the most notable exception, and he suffered through a long injury assisted decline during his late twenties. He also rebounded in his thirties to finish with a career 163 OPS+. Miggy ain't coming close to catching Big Mac in OPS+, and he's likely not moving up this list.

More importantly, OPS+ may be the single most misleading stat to measure Miggy by. It doesn't weight OBP properly, ignores the cost of his bad base running and defense, and all those extra outs he creates by hitting into double plays. And the difference it makes is profound.

- He drops to 6th in wRC+, and again that's at his peak. If he follows a normal aging curve he drops below Berkman and Thome, and possibly Giambi.
- The cost of his bad defense and base running means that Miggy has less fWAR than Keith Hernandez in almost the same number of games.
- Miggy is still 15th in fWAR among first basemen since 1980. If he plays 10 more years he should end up with 80 WAR, good for 3rd on this list and with maybe 200 more games than anyone else on it, and nearly a thousand games more than the list average.

That's going to be his entire argument, and its going to be a valid one, amazing hitter who made the HOF because he had such a long career it offset the cost of being bad at every other baseball skill.

Yeah, everybody knows that batting average and slugging and home runs never won no ballgames! And driving in all those runners? That's just rude!

If your point is that Miggy would be a great T-Ball player I agree. Rude is leading the league in hitting into double plays while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Yeah, everybody knows that batting average and slugging and home runs never won no ballgames! And driving in all those runners? That's just rude!

If your point is that Miggy would be a great T-Ball player I agree.

No, my point is you're being a jerk about this, trying to dismiss one of the best ballplayers of this generation as a "T-ball player". Please.

He drops to 6th in wRC+, and again that's at his peak.

You know, you might make your point better if weren't using stats that 99% of the public has never heard of. Hell, I'm a numbers fanatic and I don't know what the hell "wRC+" means. (Looks it up.) OK, fine. What's wrong with simple OPS+? Who are you trying to impress?

Rude is leading the league in hitting into double plays while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Yeah, I remember when Verlander tracked down Miggy with a shotgun, screaming, "That's the last Cy Young Award you'll cost me, Cabrera...!!"

while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Verlander pitched about 1/6 of Detroit's innings this year. DRS has Cabrera as a -4 third baseman; TotalZone has -9. If you average those, you'd project that Verlander allowed all of one extra run because Cabrera was playing third.

Don't buy that estimate? Give Cabrera the worst figure of his career, the -19 he posted in his last year at third in Florida according to DRS. Verlander has now allowed roughly three extra runs - maybe fewer, actually, because Verlander is a right-handed strikeout/fly ball pitcher, which isn't a type of pitcher famous for allowing huge numbers of grounders to third.

If you want to talk Verlander and awards, I'm willing to bet that Cabrera's 179 OPS+ had something to do with Verlander's 24-5 record last year, which won him not just the Cy but also the MVP.

Yeah KT, I don't get the Cabrera hate. You talk about OPS+ not weighting OBP properly, which it does not, but Miggy has led the league in OBP twice and is at .395 for his career. He does not have a disproportionately slug-heavy OPS - he's not Ron Kittle or Tony Armas.

As for his defense, its nothing to crow about, but he led the league in POs this year, and was third in assists. You can't be a horrible 3b and do that.

He's not Pujols, but Pujols is the best 1B in NL history, so that's a tough comparison. If he has a normal decline phase, he will be a perfectly acceptable HOFer.

But the most comparable hitters to Cabrera, through age 29 (by OPS+ and PAs), are Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, and Ken Griffey Jr. Cabrera is not as good a fielder as any of them, granted. But this is not the slice of the HOF where you get in by hitting a few dingers (if there really is such a slice). Cabrera's is an elite level of hitting.

If your point is that Miggy would be a great T-Ball player I agree. Rude is leading the league in hitting into double plays while helping deny Verlander the Cy Young by having the worst 3B range in baseball.

Cabrera is certainly on a HOF path. If he suffered spontaneous human combustion before Spring 2013, he'd probably still get in for his outstanding peak numbers. Enough voters love the triple crown numbers that Miggy specializes in, so I doubt a .318 batting average would be left out, especially when it comes with an average of 32 homers and 112 RBI per season. That and actually owning a rare triple crown.

He would not be a terrible selection, at 44 WAR he's already ahead of Jim Rice, and accumulated that total in less time. But he wouldn't be a great selection either. Compare him to Mark Teixiera, a fellow 2003 rookie.

Cabrera has played 15 more games, Tex has 1 more AB and 84 more PA. WAR is essentially even, 45-44 Tex. Tex has a few more homers and walks. Cabrera big edge in batting average, .318-.279, or 222 hits. Thanks to the BA, Cabrera is the better hitter in OBP, SLG, OPS+, while Tex makes up the value difference by being a better fielder and baserunner.

Despite their similar value, if Tex retired today he'd have no shot at all for the HOF. He may never be a very good candidate. Without unexpected retirements though, Cabrera is much more likely to solidify a future HOF case, since he's 3 years younger and still at his peak.