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10/03/2012

National Journal Poll shows race tied despite assuming that there are 7 percentage points more Democrats who are going to vote

I have previously written here about the problems with the presidential election polling. Does anyone really believe that the Democratic turnout will be similar to what it was relative to Republicans in 2008? Apparently a lot of the pollsters do. I don't so that makes me think that Romney is actually ahead right now in this poll.

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.

In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.

The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent. . . . .

UPDATE: A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll released on October 15th shows that Obama has a three point lead, but there are nine percentage points more Dems than Republicans in poll.