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جمعہ, اگست 5, 2011

The umbilical cord of NATO

A calibrated approach be adopted to de-escalate on the war on terror and each drone attack or incursion shall cost the NATO in the severance of their logistic tail for three days, as a quid pro-co to the unilateral strike/violation. Otherwise, enough is enough with this Alliance of inconvenience.
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Brig (retd) Said Nazir Mohmand

‘Amateurs discuss strategy while professionals talk logistics.’

The truth of this statement has been highlighted by
numerous events in the recorded history and amply demonstrated in the
conduct of recent warfare. The myth regarding Russia; that it cannot be
conquered by external power, was tenable due the fact, that the logistic
chain cannot be maintained at longer distances and for a prolonged
period of times. The inference drawn is that distances and
maintenance/sustenance periods are the rider clauses of any logistic
planning. The US occupation of Afghanistan on the pretext of War on
Terror, and the presence of almost 170,000 Extra Regional Forces and an
additional around 50,000 foreign logistic and security personnel
including infamous Blackwater have so far devoured more than three
trillion US dollars. The sustenance level is around 3,500 tons per day
for the foreign security elements. They require almost one and a half
million litres of fuel, oil and lubricants to steam their war machine on
daily bases. The surge in logistics gets a boost in operation like
Marjah and every so often planned and dropped Kandahar offensive till
the drawdown. The destruction, burning, loot, pillage and diversion of
NATO’s supplies in route take a sizable piece of NATO’s cake. The NATO
main supply route passes through Pakistan via Karachi—Torkham/ Chaman
border towns and then up to Kabul and Kandahar respectively. The main
and then the twin routes are passing through the volatile provinces of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, FATA and Balochistan, exposed to subversion and
interdiction at the hands of US/NATO resisting forces. The safe passage
of these trucks is captive to the check posts, taxes, and extortion of
Afghan warlords, tribal chieftains and Taliban, up to their final
destination. All these levies are paid in US dollars by the US/NATO
Forces or support companies.

The logistic need is so large and dominant that it requires a sustained,
continuous and uninterrupted supply chain to feed the armies which
marches on their bellies; and to fuel the burning exhausts of tanks and
gun ships puffing smoke in the gusty winds of Afghanistan. The fact of
the matter is that 70 % of these supplies are routed though Pakistan and
only 25% is through the Northern Distribution Network and the remaining
5% is through air cargo. The supply chain through the Northern
Distribution (ND) is not only cost prohibitive by three times but
unviable in time and space dimensions. The road communication network in
Northern Afghanistan is long, sluggish for heavy cargo and more prone
to interdiction, loot and plunders due to longer exposures on route.
Russia still feel the headache of traversing this route during their
occupation of Afghanistan, then why NATO should not learn from others
mistakes. It is a geo-strategic compulsion that the logistic support for
the war on terror is subject to the Pakistan’s sea, ground and air
space traverse. So, by implication Pakistan holds the key to the NATO
operations in Afghanistan. If the chips are down to the level of parting
the ways, then NATO should discuss strategy, while Pakistan should
profess logistics. The adage will assert itself again and again. General
William Fraser, Commander US Transportation Command told the Senate
Armed Services Committee at his confirmation hearing that they are
working on reducing their dependency on supply routes in Pakistan by
placing more dependence on the ND network and air cargo. The US
logisticians have an ambitious logistic undertaking to bring down the
dependence via Pakistan to 35%, almost half of the present material bulk
and load. The US logistic wizards have been working on this logistic
flexibility since the fissures became visible in the US–Pak nexus in the
war on terror due to Raymond Davis episode and 2nd May unilateral raid
by US Navy Seals in Abbottabad. As the end game in the war on terror is
visible and the transition process has got a kick start in one form or
the other, therefore the extra load is to be jettisoned and the allies
be abandoned as liability in the American tradition. It does not require
a rocket science to understand the American scheme of things in the
region. Their objectives and goals are to be seen in the perspective of
double game, cloak and dagger, imply and deny and finally the stick and
carrot technique being applied and pursued with all the tools available
at their disposal. Though, the empire is receding on the war on terror
in Afghanistan but wants a face saving in the form of change role from
occupation to a patronage (a protectorate Afghanistan) and from large
force presence to a power basin in the form of air bases for future use
as a long stick in the region. In the geo-strategic perspective create
an elbow space for its regional ally India to manage the affairs of
Afghanistan and CARs and contain China by implication. The US will still
bid on the Northern Alliance to secure for them a role bigger than
their size in the post occupation Afghanistan for towing their lines and
keeping the US tail clean and secure from disruption. Such an
arrangement will slowly erode the Afghan nationalism, keep Iran at a bay
as a lured stakeholder and accrue the dividends of balkanization by
keeping the ethnic divide alive and functional. The post exit stratagem
will leave the southern and mostly eastern Afghanistan in a state of
flux with perpetual negative effects on Pakistan. The mayhem in FATA
will continue at the cost of Pakistan’s stability and economic growth.

To meet the end game with little scathing and maximum advantage the
American logisticians have drawn the lines to reduce their dependence on
Pakistan and lessen the leverage available to Pakistan under the
present logistic arrangements. Their approach is two prongs, one to
reduce the size of war machine and second to explore and pipeline new
and secure routes. The race is against the time, as evident from the
question of Senator John McCain from General Fraser, “how long it would
take you to adjust to keep the same level of logistics into
Afghanistan”? The inference drawn from the diversion of logistics routes
is that the sooner they achieve that, the earlier will they abandon
Pakistan. The US will keep Pakistan engaged at low level strategic
plinth till their objectives are fulfilled in the next couple of
years. The leverage Pakistan enjoys in the severance of NATO’s umbilical
cord is just a matter of time, if not taken advantage in the limited
time and space dimensions the umbilical cord may become that of a
still-baby. The storage capacity of Extra Regional Forces in Afghanistan
is limited to weeks not months, therefore the noose around the supply
chain be kept tight till they renounce drones attacks, all sorts of
incursions and pay for the damages caused to our main road communication
infrastructure. A calibrated approach be adopted to de-escalate on the
war on terror and each drone attack or incursion shall cost the NATO in
the severance of their logistic tail for three days, as a quid pro-co to
the unilateral strike/violation. Otherwise, enough is enough with this
Alliance of inconvenience.