Tropical Depression RAYMOND (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 30 2013
RAYMOND HAS DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW
LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
SMALL AREA DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE ELONGATED...AND
POSSIBLY LOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE EARLIER CENTER ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE MOST RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.
STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR
MAKE IT UNLIKELY THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL RETURN....AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON. THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 19.6N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 20.1N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z 20.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/1800Z 20.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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