Enlightenment Through Understanding

Bitcoin Update 2/4/2018

February 4, 2018

Bitcoin bottomed a few days ago at 7,500, falling from as high as 11,000 a few weeks ago. It has since bounced back as high as 9,400 and is sitting at 8,900 as of publishing this. Given the weakness of the bounce and thus the failure to reclaim 10,000, but also the weakness in the charts and overwhelmingly negative price momentum, Bitcoin is going lower in the short-term and soon. The most optimistic outcome for bulls is that Bitcoin hovers around 8,000-9,000 for a week, and then the price slowly reclaims 10,000, but it seems a quick plunge to 7,000 or lower is more likely. Now of course, Bitcoin bulls on Reddit can post HODL memes, Andreas Antonopoulos videos, and links to stupid tweets such as this, which went viral on Reddit and Twitter even though the pattern had failed [1], but the fate of Bitcoin for the short and medium term is already encoded into the charts. Although studies say technical analysis does not work, such studies are applied to indexes and stocks, but Bitcoin is neither of those. But overall, Bitcoin is getting closer to an eventual bottom.

[1] “Joseph Young‏” is apparently oblivious (I’m making the charitable assumption he tweeted something that was wrong accidentally, not intentionally) to the fact that Bitcoin fell not 40%, but actually 62% (from 20,000 to 7,600), and hence the pattern is invalid. But that did not stop over 2,000 people from liking and re-tweeting it—cause empirical reality be damned. I’ll make my own reality. Because he tweeted on Feb. 2nd a picture of chart pattern that as of January 28th had obviously failed, that means he was either oblivious or hoping no one would notice. Just further evidence of how those who are held up as ‘experts’ in many instances are not so.