The full findings of "America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey," a survey commissioned by The Atlantic and the Aspen Institute and released July 1, 2014 at the organizations’ 10th
…

The full findings of "America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey," a survey commissioned by The Atlantic and the Aspen Institute and released July 1, 2014 at the organizations’ 10th annual Aspen Ideas Festival, and conducted by research firm Penn Schoen Berland (PSB) in partnership with global public relations and strategic communications firm Burson-Marsteller. PSB, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the United States general population from May 28 – 31, 2014.

Transcript

2.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Methodology
2
 Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001
online interviews with the general population of the U.S. from May 28-31,
2014.
 The overall margin of error is ± 2.19%
 The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bureau
demographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, income and political
party.

4.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Imagining 2024:
We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age of
Impossibility”
4

5.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
35% of Americans believe that the US will be on the right track in
2024
5
25
39
17
30
48
16
35
46
28
62
47
76
58
37
78
28 22
35
OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS
All Democrat Republican
RightTrackWrongDirection
CURRENTLY 10 YEARS FROM NOW
AMERICA’S PATH
Do you think the United States has been, is, or will be one the right
track or headed in the wrong direction?

6.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
39% think the American economy will be on the right track in
10 years
6
US ECONOMY
Ten years ago, do you think the American economy was on the
right track or headed in the wrong direction?
In ten years, do you think the American economy will be on the
right track or headed in the wrong direction?
44%
37%
56%
39%
51%
33%
All Democrats Republicans
The American economy was / will be on the right track
2004 2004 20042024 2024 2024

8.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
49% believe that hard work is less likely to pay off in
the future
8
61%
30%
23%
49%
10 YEARS FROM NOW
HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULES
Ten years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less likely to get ahead?
In ten years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead?
10 YEARS AGO
Less Likely
More Likely
All All
In 2024
All
Age Political Affiliation
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More likely 30 32 33 29 25 36 31 24
Less likely 49 42 48 49 58 42 51 52
Don’t know 21 26 19 23 17 23 18 23

9.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
9
Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor has grown or shrunk in the United States over the past ten years?
Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor will grow or shrink in the United States over the next ten years?
66% think the gap between the rich and poor will grow over
the next 10 years
Past Ten Years
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Grown 77 78 76 71 74 77 90 81 74 76
Shrunk 10 9 10 10 15 9 4 9 12 10
Don't know 13 12 14 18 11 14 6 10 14 14
In Ten Years
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Grow 66 67 65 59 65 65 79 66 67 65
Shrink 16 17 14 20 20 13 8 17 14 15
Don't know 18 16 21 21 15 22 13 16 19 20
77% 71% 74% 77%
90%
10% 10% 15% 9% 4%
66% 59% 65% 65%
79%
16% 20% 20% 13% 8%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Grown over the last 10 years Shrunk over the last 10 years Grow over the next 10 years Shrink over the next 10 years

14.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
43% think that fewer Americans will go to college in 10 years,
but 41% think it will be a good investment
14
37%
43%
20%
More
Fewer
Don't know
Do you think more or fewer people will go to college in ten
years as compared to now
41%
30%
29% A good
investment
A bad
investment
Don't know
At a conservative rate of yearly 3% tuition increases, the annual tuition for a four-year
public university in 2024 would be more than $26,000, and the average tuition of a
four-year private university would be more than $58,000. Do you think getting a college
degree in ten years will be a good investment or a bad investment?
All
Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think more or
fewer people will go
to college in ten years
as compared to
now?*
More 37 41 34 34 37 43 30 26 37 47 39 34 37 38 48 40 27
Fewer 43 43 44 48 37 40 50 48 46 40 39 49 43 42 34 44 50
Don’t know
20 16 23 18 25 17 20 27 17 13 22 16 20 21 18 16 23
Do you think getting a
college degree in ten
years will be a good
investment or a bad
investment? *
A good investment 41 48 34 40 38 42 43 35 45 48 40 41 40 46 40 43 41
A bad investment 30 29 30 32 34 27 27 33 29 27 33 35 26 26 31 28 31
Don’t know
29 23 35 28 27 30 30 33 26 25 27 25 35 28 29 30 28
ALL N=970
GROUP B N=1031
*Reduced base sizes

15.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Most parents think a college degree will be more important for their
children to have, but half do not think they will be able to afford it
15
56%
26%
7%
11% More important
No more or
less important
Less important
Don't know
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, do you think it will be more important, less
important or no more or less important for your children to have a
college degree in ten years than it was for you? (N=354)
29%
50%
20%
Yes
No
Don't know
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, by the time they go to college, do you think
you will be able to afford your children’s college education? (N=354)
All
Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER
18, Do you think it will be
more important, less
important or no more or
less important for your
children to have a college
degree in ten years than it
was for you?*
More important 56 51 60 65 53 53 58 42 62 63 50 61 50 100 65 56 49
No more or less
important 26 32 22 23 23 24 31 35 18 26 29 21 33 0 17 27 32
Less important 7 7 7 8 12 5 5 9 7 5 7 6 9 0 10 4 7
Don’t know
11 10 11 5 13 18 6 14 12 5 14 11 8 0 7 13 12
IF HAVE KIDS UNDER
18, by the time they go to
college, do you think you
will be able to afford your
children’s college
education?*
Yes 29 49 18 37 16 29 36 21 20 51 40 27 25 0 30 29 29
No 50 34 60 48 63 54 39 68 52 32 35 57 55 6 48 56 48
Don’t know
20 17 22 15 21 17 26 10 28 17 25 16 20 94 23 15 23
ALL
*Reduced base sizes

17.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
60% of parents think their kids will be better off in 10 years
than they were at the same age
17
60%
21%
18%
Parents N=354
Yes
No
Don't know
IF PARENTS: In ten years, do you think your children will be better off
than you were at their age?
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 60 72 54 72 61 51 6 59 56 65
No 21 18 23 12 21 26 94 24 23 18
Don't know 18 10 23 15 18 22 0 17 21 18

18.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
About half say they were better off financially 10 years ago
and will be better off 10 years from now
18
52% 48%
31% 26%
16%
26%
Ten years ago, were you better off or worse off financially
than you are today?
In ten years, do you expect to be better off or worse off
financially than you are today?
Better off Worse off Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, were you
better off or worse off
financially than you are
today?*
Better off 52 50 54 40 55 52 62 48 60 49
Worse off 31 31 32 37 28 33 26 36 28 30
Don't know 16 19 14 23 17 15 12 16 12 21
In ten years, do you
expect to be better off
or worse off financially
than you are today?*
Better off 48 52 44 60 54 46 31 49 45 50
Worse off 26 23 28 18 20 27 42 25 29 23
Don't know 26 25 27 22 26 28 28 26 26 26

22.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
30% think the U.S.’s global standing will be on the rise in 10
years
22
All
Political Affiliation
D R I
On the rise 30 38 27 27
In decline 43 36 49 45
Don’t know 26 27 24 28
AMERICA’S GLOBAL STANDING
Do you think America’s global standing will be on the rise or in decline in ten years? (Showing All)
30% 43% 26%
On the rise In decline Don't know
In 2024
• 38% of Democrats are optimistic about America’s global standing in 2024 while 49% of Republics are not

26.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Most say China will be a main economic competitor in 10
years
26
AMEICA’S ECONOMIC COMPETITORS
Which country do you think will be the United States’ main economic
competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply.
7
19
34
74
12
21
27
79
18
26
31
85
11
22
30
78
India
Russia
Japan
China
All High Income Mid Income Low Income

28.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
54% think Russia will have expanded geographically and
58% think it will have increased global influence by 2024
28
Yes
54%
No
24%
Don't know
22%
All
In ten years, do you think Russia will have expanded
geographically?
More
58%
Less
18%
Don't know
24%
All
In ten years, do you think Russia will have more or less
influence in world affairs?
71% of 65+ vs. 46% of 18-29
year olds think Russia will
have expanded by 2024

33.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
55% think there will be less peace in the world 10 years from
now
33
22% 55% 23%
More peace Less peace Don't know
In 2024
WORLD PEACE
In ten years, do you think there will be more or less peace around
the world than there is today?
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More peace 22 23 21 28 27 17 15 27 14 23
Less peace 55 57 54 53 54 56 61 48 67 53
Don’t know 23 20 25 19 19 27 24 25 18 24
ALL

35.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
33% say Americans will be more unified in 10 years
35
More
unified
49%Less
unified
32%
Don't
know
19%
UNITY IN 2004
Do you think Americans were more or less unified as a
people ten years ago than we are today?
(Showing All)
More
unified
33%
Less
unified
41%
Don't
know
26%
UNITY IN 2024
Do you think Americans will be more or less unified as a
people in ten years than we are today?
(Showing All)

37.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
32% think the government will be more effective in 10 years
37
Do you think the American government was more or less effective ten years ago than it is now?
Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in ten years than it is now?
Do you think the American
government will be more or
less effective in ten years
than it is now?
All
Race Political Affiliation
White
African-
American
Hispanic D R I
More effective 32 29 42 44 40 30 28
Less effective 35 37 23 37 26 38 40
Don't know 33 35 35 19 34 32 32
45% 32%
36%
35%
19%
33%
In 2004 In 2024
Don't know
Less effective
More effective

38.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to say the country has made progress on
alternative energy, gone backward on debt over the past 10 years
38
40%
39%
33%
30%
29%
27%
25%
23%
20%
18%
15%
14%
14%
13%
12%
12%
10%
18%
23%
46%
29%
25%
28%
29%
44%
42%
35%
39%
43%
51%
40%
60%
56%
49%
Alternative energy sources
Homeland security and terrorism
Healthcare
Defense and national security
Energy independence
The environment
Transportation and infrastructure
Economic growth and job creation
Education
Foreign policy
Size of government
Government regulation
Traditional family values
Income inequality
The federal budget and national debt
Rising costs of college education
Taxes
Made progress
Gone backward
When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States has made progress, gone backward or has
there been no change in the past ten years?

39.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Americans most likely to expect progress on energy, going
backward on debt over the next 10 years, too
39
41%
37%
36%
34%
32%
31%
30%
30%
26%
23%
21%
20%
18%
18%
17%
16%
15%
17%
18%
20%
21%
29%
19%
26%
21%
25%
25%
37%
27%
28%
35%
25%
35%
34%
Alternative energy sources
Energy independence
Homeland security and terrorism
Defense and national security
Healthcare
Transportation and infrastructure
Economic growth and job creation
The environment
Education
Foreign policy
The federal budget and national debt
Income inequality
Government regulation
Traditional family values
Size of government
Rising costs of college education
Taxes
Made progress
Gone backward
When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone
backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?

48.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
77% believe they will have less privacy from the government
in 10 years, and 58% see that as a bad thing
48
PRIVACY FROM US GOVERNMENT
In ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today? (Showing All)
10% 77% 13%
More privacy Less privacy Don't know
In 2024
20% 58% 22%
Good thing Bad thing Don't know
In 2024
PRIVACY ON SOCIETY
Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)
All
Age Political Affiliation
18-29 65+ D R I
Privacy from the U.S.
government in 2024
More privacy 10 14 4 9 15 8
Less privacy 77 73 83 76 75 78
Don't know 13 13 13 15 9 14
Will that be a good thing
or a bad thing?
Good thing 20 23 21 29 20 13
Bad thing 58 59 55 49 62 63
Don't know 22 18 24 23 17 24

49.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
49
51 49 57 56
33
74 71 73 77 75
35 37 31 29
48
13 14 17 9 15
10 YEARS FROM NOW
Currently, do you think there are cameras watching you most of the time?
In ten years, do you think there will be cameras watching you most of the time?
CURRENTLY
No
Yes
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
74% think there will be cameras watching them most of the
time in 2024
29% 45% 26%
Good thing Bad thing Don't know
In 2024
Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)

50.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
50
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Safer 42 47 36 35 47 42 40 44 39 42
Less safe 31 29 32 37 30 27 31 27 37 28
Don’t know 28 24 32 27 23 32 29 29 24 30
Do you think that the government’s surveillance of electronic communications and cellphone
records will make the country safer or less safe ten years from now than it is today?
42% 31% 28%
Safer Less safe Don't know
In 2024
42% say the government’s electronic surveillance will make
the country safer in 10 years
ALL

51.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
51
Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in
America in ten years than there is now?
58% think there will be more gun violence in the next ten years, as well
as more gun law in the next ten years
58%18%
23%
ALL
More gun violence
Less gun violence
Don't know
Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control
laws in the United States in ten years?
58%20%
22%
ALL
More gun laws
Fewer gun laws
Don't know
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think there will be
more or less gun violence in
America in ten years than
there is now?
More gun violence 58 57 60 51 58 62 60 63 53 58
Less gun violence 18 22 15 27 20 14 12 15 25 16
Don't know 23 21 25 22 22 24 27 22 22 26
Do you think there will be
more or fewer gun control
laws in the United States in
ten years?
More gun laws 58 59 56 58 63 53 58 57 61 56
Fewer gun laws 20 22 18 21 17 21 22 23 20 18
Don't know 22 19 26 21 20 26 20 20 19 26

53.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
62% believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 than
it is today
53
62%
34%
16%
48%
22%
18%
More prevalent Less prevalent Don't know
Ten Years Ago
In Ten Years
PREVALENCE OF POVERTY
Do you think poverty was more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. ten years ago than it is today? (Showing All)
Do you think poverty will be more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. in ten years than it is today? (Showing All)
66% of those aged 30-44
years believe that poverty will
be more prevalent in 2024,
compared to just 52% of
Millennials
Poverty Prevalence in 2024
All
Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
More prevalent 62 52 66 61 71
Less prevalent 16 22 17 14 10
Don’t know 22 26 18 25 19
 Older audiences more so than Millennials believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 with 71% of
those over 65 years old and 66% of those aged 30-44 years agreeing

54.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
54
34%
29%
24% 23%
18%
2%
31%
37%
27% 27%
16%
1%
39%
26%
22% 22%
14%
2%
32%
25% 23%
19%
24%
2%
Nothing major is
likely to happen in
reaction to income
inequality
Tax reform to
redistribute wealth
Large scale street
demonstrations
Restrictions on
executive pay
Don't know Other
All Democrat Republican Independent
Which of the following do you think will happen in the next ten years in reaction to income inequality in the United
States? You can select multiple responses if necessary.
34% think nothing major will happen in the next 10 years in
reaction to income inequality

56.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
30% think Congress will be more effective in 2024 than in
2014
56
More
effective
44%
Less
effective
33%
Don't know
23%
ALL
Do you think the US Congress was more or less effective
ten years ago than it is today?
More
effective
30%
Less
effective
38%
Don't know
32%
ALL
Do you think the US Congress will be more or less
effective ten years from now than it is today?

59.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
67% predict that money will be more of a dominant force in
politics in ten years than today
59
Do you think money was more or less of a dominant force in American politics ten years ago than it is today?
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More of a force 41 43 39 43 44 40 34 44 41 38
Less of a force 40 39 41 32 38 40 54 36 43 41
Don’t know 19 18 20 25 18 20 12 20 16 21
Do you think money will be more or less of a dominant force in American politics in ten years than it is today?
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More of a force 67 67 66 60 66 69 73 67 68 65
Less of a force 13 14 12 16 17 12 7 13 12 14
Don’t know 20 19 21 24 17 20 20 19 20 21
More of a
force
67%Less of a
force
13%
Don't know
20%
ALL

60.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
60
58%
68% 63%
45%
19% 14% 18% 24%23% 17% 19%
31%
All Democrat Republican Independent
Yes No Don't know
A majority say the two party system will still dominate in 10 years, and
31% think the Republican Party will attract more minorities
Do you think the two political party system (Republicans and Democrats) will still be dominant in ten years?
31%
22%
41%
30%34%
54%
23% 27%
35%
24%
36%
43%
All Democrat Republican Independent
More African Americans and Latino voters Fewer African Americans and Latino voters Don't know
Do you think the Republican Party in ten years will attract more or fewer African America and Latino voters than it does now?

61.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
61
25%
16%
38%
22%
42%
57%
34% 35%33%
27% 29%
43%
All Democrat Republican Independent
More Less Don't know
42% think the Tea Party will be less of a political force in 10
years
Do you think the Tea Party will be more or less of a force in American politics in ten years?

64.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
64
FAMILY VALUES SINCE 2004
Do you think the definition of family values has changed in the
United States over the past ten years? (Showing All)
FAMILY VALUES CHANGING
Do you think the definition of family values will change in the
United States over the next ten years? (Showing All)
62% believe the definition of family values will change
a little in the next 10 years
57%
23%
11% 9%
All
Yes - a great deal
Yes - but only a little
No - it hasn't changed
Don't know
11%
62%
7%
20%
All
No - it won't
change
Yes - but only a
little
No- it hasn't
changed
Don't know
Family Values
Changing Since 2004
All
Gender
Male Female
Yes – a great deal 57 53 62
Yes – but only a little 23 26 21
No – it hasn’t changed 11 13 9
Don't know 9 9 9
Family Values
Changing in 2024
All
Gender
Male Female
No – it won't change 11 10 12
Yes – but only a little 62 64 60
No – it hasn’t changed 7 7 7
Don't know 20 18 22
 Females think the definition of family values has changed over the past ten years more than males do

65.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
54% expect climate change to affect them more in 10
years
65
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS
In 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do today?
54% 20% 26%
Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know
ALL
75% 72% 63% 60% 50% 46% 43% 3%
Extreme
temperatures
More severe
storms
Severe droughts Melting polar ice
caps
Food shortages Extinction of
species, such as
polar bears
Coastal
communities
under water
Don't know
ALL
MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARS
Which of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?

66.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
66
Most believe there will be more droughts, forest fires,
superstorms and tsunamis in 10 years
66% 66% 65%
52%
13% 14% 13% 15%
21% 21% 22%
33%
Droughts Forest fires Superstorms, like Sandy Tsunamis
More Less Don’t know
In ten years, do you think there will be more or less of the following? (Showing All)

67.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
67
54%
39%
48%
60%
68%
27%
41%
33%
19% 17%19% 20% 19% 21% 15%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Yes No Don't know
Do you think Americans will be having fewer children ten years from now than they are having today?
Most think that Americans will be having fewer children in
2024 and that they will be raised worse than they are now
21%
29% 23% 18% 15%
54% 47%
56% 53%
61%
25% 24% 20%
29% 24%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Better Worse Don't know
Do you think children in the United States will be raised better or worse in ten years than they are now?

68.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
 According to Americans, a gay president is the least likely to be elected by 2024
68
US LEADER BY 2024
Ten years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following? (Showing % saying ‘Yes’)
14% 13% 15% 16%
10%
16%
67% 67% 68%
78%
58%
66%
31% 33% 30% 32% 30% 32%30% 29% 32%
37%
28% 27%
All Male Female Democrat Republican Independent
A gay president A female president A Hispanic president An African American president
Most think the U.S. will elect a female president in the next
10 years
US Leaders by 2024 All
Age Race
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White
African-
American
Hispanic
A female president 67 64 68 67 73 68 64 70
A Hispanic president 31 34 33 27 34 28 23 59
An African-American president
)other than President Obama)
30 39 38 23 22 26 43 42
A gay president 14 20 19 8 11 13 15 20

69.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
69
44% think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English
in the U.S. in 10 years
60%
16%
3% 2% 2%
18%
54%
19%
3% 2% 3%
19%
65%
14%
3% 1% 1%
17%
Spanish Chinese Japanese French German Don't know
All Male Female
Which of the following non-English languages do you think it will be most useful to know in ten years?
In ten years, do you think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English in the United States?
44% 38% 18%
Yes No Don't know
In 2024

75.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
41% think social media has made their lives better in the last 10 years,
and 36% think it will make their lives better in the next 10 years
75
41% 36%
24% 26%
35% 38%
In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term
"social media" had not been coined. Has social media made
your life better or worse in the past ten years?
Do you think that social media will make your life better or
worse in the next decade?
Better Worse Don't know
ALL
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In 2004, Facebook had just been
created, and the term "social media"
had not been coined. Has social
media made your life better or worse
in the past ten years?
Better 41 36 45 36 49 40 35 43 45 35
Worse 24 30 19 31 21 22 26 21 24 28
Don't know 35 34 36 33 30 38 39 36 31 37
Do you think that social media will
make your life better or worse in the
next decade?
Better 36 36 36 39 42 33 31 40 38 32
Worse 26 29 23 30 25 24 26 22 28 27
Don't know 38 35 41 31 33 44 43 38 34 41

81.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
55% believe they will control all of the electronics and
appliances in their houses through one device in 10 years
81
38%
55%
36%
23%26% 22%
Do you think the technological device you will use most
often ten years from now has been invented yet?
Do you think you will be controlling all of the electronics
and appliances in your house with one device in ten
years?
Yes No Don't Know
All
Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think the
technological device
you will use most
often ten years from
now has been
invented yet?
Yes 38 41 35 32 37 42 37 35 40 39 42 43 37 26 35 41 37
No 36 36 37 41 38 34 36 33 39 41 30 37 33 51 39 37 34
Don’t know
26 23 28 27 25 24 27 32 21 20 28 20 30 23 26 22 28
Do you think you will
be controlling all of
the electronics and
appliances in your
house with one
device in ten years?
Yes 55 58 53 55 53 56 57 51 58 61 59 58 53 51 59 55 53
No 23 23 22 15 27 24 22 21 23 25 23 21 22 27 20 24 24
Don’t know
22 19 25 31 20 20 21 28 19 14 18 21 25 22 22 21 23
ALL

82.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
73% expect companies to collect more information in 10
years, and 56% think that will be bad thing
 The older Americans are, the more likely they are to believe companies will collect more information in the
future
82
INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANY
In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less
information about you than they do today? (Showing All)
73% 12% 15%
More information Less information Don't know
In 2024
18% 56% 26%
Good thing Bad thing Don't know
In 2024
INFORMATION COLLECTION ON SOCIETY
Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)
All
Age
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
In ten years, do you expect
private companies to collect
more or less information about
you than they do today?
More information 73 54 75 79 83
Less information 12 20 11 10 7
Don't know 15 26 14 11 10
Overall, will that be a good thing
for our society or a bad thing?
Good thing 18 14 26 15 16
Bad thing 56 54 54 61 53
Don't know 26 32 20 24 31

88.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
88
22%
56%
22%
More common
Less common
Don't know
Showing All
Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or
less common ten years from now than it is today?
Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or
less common ten years from now than it is today?
63%
15%
22%
More common
Less common
Don't know
Showing All
56% think marriage will be less common in 2024, and
63% think divorce will be more common
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think marriage in the
United States will be more or
less common ten years from
now than it is today?
More common 22 24 20 28 28 17 15 25 23 19
Less common 56 55 56 47 50 59 67 51 61 54
Don't know 22 21 24 25 22 24 18 23 16 27
Do you think divorce in the
United States will be more or
less common ten years from
now than it is today?
More common 63 63 64 66 63 61 64 63 63 64
Less common 15 16 15 14 16 15 16 15 18 13
Don't know 22 22 21 20 21 24 20 22 19 24

95.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
25% envision space travel being available to average people in 10
years, and 22% think humans will have encountered life beyond Earth
95
*Reduced base sizes
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
In ten years, do you think
commercial space travel will
be available to the average
person?*
Yes 25 27 23 24 29 29 11 21 29 25
No 46 50 43 45 41 41 66 49 46 44
Don't know 29 23 34 32 30 29 23 30 24 31
In ten years, do you think
humans will have had
encounters with life beyond?*
Yes 22 22 22 35 17 22 12 16 19 28
No 49 54 45 39 52 46 68 53 59 39
Don't know 29 24 33 27 32 33 20 31 22 32
25%
46%
29%
N=970
Yes
No
Don't know
In ten years, do you think commercial space travel will be available to
the average person?
22%
49%
29%
N= 970
Yes
No
Don't know
In ten years, do you think humans will have had encounters with life
beyond?

96.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
59% think they were healthier 10 years ago, and 43% expect
to be healthier 10 years from now
96
59%
43%
24% 31%
17%
26%
Ten years ago, were you healthier or less healthy than you
are today?
In ten years, do you expect to be healthier or less healthy
than you are today?
Healthier Less healthy Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, were you
healthier or less healthy
than you are today?*
Healthier 59 56 61 47 56 65 67 61 55 59
Less healthy 24 30 19 32 26 19 21 21 27 24
Don't know 17 14 20 21 18 17 12 18 18 16
In ten years, do you
expect to be healthier or
less healthy than you
are today?*
Healthier 43 42 43 61 45 39 22 44 46 39
Less healthy 31 37 26 18 27 33 52 32 26 34
Don't know 26 21 31 21 28 28 26 23 28 27

97.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Almost half expect to weigh less in 10 years
97
32%
19%
50% 49%
17%
31%
Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do
today?
In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you
do today?
More Less Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, did you
weigh more or less than
you do today?*
More 32 32 33 30 34 28 42 34 30 33
Less 50 52 49 54 51 54 36 46 56 50
Don't know 17 16 18 16 15 18 22 20 15 17
In ten years, do you
expect to weigh more or
less than you do
today?*
More 19 27 13 28 27 13 6 18 24 17
Less 49 45 54 42 44 54 60 50 48 50
Don't know 31 29 34 31 29 33 34 32 28 33

98.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
56% say they were more active 10 years ago, and 43%
expect to be more active in 10 years
98
56%
43%
27% 32%
17%
24%
Ten years ago, were you more or less physically active than
you are today?
In ten years, do you expect to be more or less physically
active than you are today?
More physically active Less physically active Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, were you
more or less physically
active than you are
today?*
More physically active 56 55 57 54 49 58 67 57 58 55
Less physically active 27 30 24 26 34 24 23 25 30 26
Don't know 17 15 19 21 17 18 10 19 12 19
In ten years, do you
expect to be more or
less physically active
than you are today?*
More physically active 43 42 45 61 54 39 9 46 47 38
Less physically active 32 37 28 15 23 35 67 35 29 32
Don't know 24 21 27 24 23 26 24 18 23 30

102.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are most likely to say football, basketball,
baseball and soccer will be more popular in 10 years
27% 31% 30% 30% 31% 35% 34% 33% 37% 35% 40%
15%
22% 25% 24%
32% 29% 34% 39% 34% 38%
43%
58%
47% 46% 46%
37% 36% 33% 29% 29% 27%
17%
Don't know Less popular More popular
102
(Ranked) Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be
more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today?
(Multiple Responses Permitted)

104.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
40% say football concussions will be less of a problem in 10 years,
and 37% think that youth football participation will be lower
104
31%
40%
30%
Ten years from now, do you think concussions will be a
more of a problem or less of a problem in football than
they are today?
More of a problem Less of a problem Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years from now, do
you think concussions
will be a more of a
problem or less of a
problem in football than
they are today?*
More of a problem 31 37 25 42 32 27 21 26 29 36
Less of a problem 40 37 42 26 38 45 51 45 44 32
Don't know 30 25 33 33 29 28 28 29 26 32
Ten years from now, do
you think participation
in youth and high
school football will be
higher or lower than it is
today?*
Higher 30 29 31 28 36 26 31 34 28 28
Lower 37 43 32 33 33 44 33 30 41 39
Don't know 33 28 37 39 31 29 36 36 30 33
30%
37% 33%
Ten years from now, do you think participation in youth and high
school football will be higher or lower than it is today?
Higher Lower Don't know

106.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
27% say they will go to the movies less often in 10 years
106
11%
46%
27%
16%
ALL N=970
More frequently
Same amount
Less frequently
Don't know
In ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently, less
frequently or about the same amount as you do currently?
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
More frequently 11 12 9 15 15 10 1 14 13 7
Same amount 46 45 47 42 48 44 50 47 49 42
Less frequently 27 27 28 18 22 30 43 24 28 30
Don't know 16 16 16 24 15 16 7 15 11 21

107.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
64% think The Simpsons will no longer be on TV in 10 years
107
36%
64%
ALL N=1031
Yes No
(If Group B) Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV?
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Yes 36 38 35 51 44 29 22 30 38 41
No 64 62 65 49 56 71 78 70 62 59

108.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
Americans are split on whether TV will be better in 10 years
108
35% 37%
45%
37%
19%
26%
Ten years ago, Friends and Frasier were broadcasting their final
episodes, while shows such as House, Desperate Housewives,
Entourage and The Apprentice were debuting. Do you think television
is better or worse now than it was in 2004?
Do you think television will be better or worse ten years from now than
it is today?
Better Worse Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=1031
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Do you think television is better or worse
now than it was in 2004?*
Better 35 42 29 44 49 28 19 40 27 37
Worse
45 38 53 29 34 52 70 41 59 38
Don't know 19 21 18 27 17 21 11 19 14 24
Do you think television will be better or
worse ten years from now than it is
today?
Better 37 44 30 36 47 32 32 36 38 37
Worse 37 31 44 33 34 38 48 38 39 35
Don't know 26 25 26 32 20 31 20 26 23 28

110.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
54% say they were happier 10 years ago, and 46% expect to
be happier in 10 years
110
54%
46%
24% 22%22%
32%
Ten years ago, were you happier or less happy than you are
today?
In ten years, do you expect to be happier or less happy than
you are today?
Happier Less happy Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, were you
happier or less happy
than you are today?*
Happier 54 54 53 46 56 58 51 53 54 53
Less happy 24 23 25 27 26 22 21 24 23 25
Don't know 22 22 22 27 19 20 28 22 23 22
In ten years, do you
expect to be happier or
less happy than you are
today?*
Happier 46 40 52 48 49 52 26 50 51 40
Less happy 22 29 16 25 21 17 31 17 20 27
Don't know 32 31 33 27 30 32 43 33 30 32

111.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
52% say that their lives were less stressful 10 years ago, 41%
expect their lives to be less stressful in 10 years
111
32% 32%
52%
41%
16%
27%
Ten years ago, was your day-to-day life more stressful or less
stressful than it is today?
In ten years, do you expect your day-to-day life will be more
stressful or less stressful than it is today?
More stressful Less stressful Don't know
*Reduced base sizes
ALL N=970
All
Gender Age Political Affiliation
M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
Ten years ago, was your
day-to-day life more
stressful or less
stressful than it is
today?*
More stressful 32 36 29 34 29 34 31 31 36 29
Less stressful 52 51 53 48 55 50 58 52 51 53
Don't know 16 14 18 18 16 17 11 16 13 18
In ten years, do you
expect your day-to-day
life will be more
stressful or less
stressful than it is
today?*
More stressful 32 38 28 45 33 24 31 31 32 33
Less stressful 41 39 42 27 42 48 45 43 43 37
Don't know 27 23 30 29 26 28 25 26 24 29

112.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
112
56% think that people will be living longer in 2024
56%
42%
50%
57%
78%
25%
34% 32%
23%
9%
19% 23%
18% 20%
13%
All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Longer Shorter Don’t know
Ten years from now, do you think people will be living longer or shorter?

117.
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
The Atlantic/Aspen Institute
IMAGINING 2024
53% of those who are employed do not expect to be working
for the same company in 10 years
117
26%
41%
53%
35%
21% 24%
IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will still be
working at the same company where you currently work?
IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will be working
in the same career field as you currently do?
Yes No Don't Know
All
Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation
M F NE MW S W <35K
35K-
75K
>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I
IF EMPLOYED, in ten
years, do you think
you will still be
working at the same
company where you
currently work?*
Yes 26 28 24 20 26 28 27 16 27 31 25 25 28 19 23 34 21
No 53 56 51 59 51 53 52 57 49 55 59 50 51 77 58 49 54
Don’t know 21 16 25 20 23 20 21 27 24 13 16 25 21 4 19 17 25
IF EMPLOYED, in ten
years, do you think
you will be working in
the same career field
as you currently do?*
Yes 41 47 36 38 40 45 41 27 44 50 50 40 41 26 40 48 37
No 35 33 36 41 38 30 34 42 30 35 30 35 34 58 37 30 36
Don’t know 24 20 28 21 22 25 26 31 26 16 20 26 25 16 23 22 26
IF EMPLOYED N=479
*Reduced base sizes