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23 November 2013

Iran and world powers struck an
accord today that broke a decade-long diplomatic stalemate,
setting limits on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in
exchange for limited relief from sanctions.

The agreement was announced by diplomats including Iranian
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, his French counterpart
Laurent Fabius and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine
Ashton in the early hours of today, the fifth day of meetings in
Geneva. Details weren’t immediately available.

It’s the first accord to be reached since Iran’s nuclear
program came under international scrutiny in 2003, and may help
to avert the risk of another Middle East war or a nuclear arms
race in the Persian Gulf. Western nations have accused Iran of
harboring nuclear-weapons ambitions, a charge it denies, and the
U.S. and Israel have said they are willing use force if needed
to prevent that from happening.

The accord was reached after foreign ministers from the
U.S., Europe, China and Russia made unscheduled trips to Geneva
to push the third round of talks in six weeks to a conclusion.
It’s intended as a first step toward a comprehensive agreement,
and is reversible if the reciprocal measures aren’t taken.

Under discussion in Geneva were steps by Iran to allow more
nuclear monitoring and limit enriched-uranium capacity and
stockpiles. Its interlocutors said they were ready to ease some
of the trade curbs that have pushed the Islamic Republic’s
economy into recession.

Even limited detente between the U.S. and Iran, which holds
the world’s No. 4 proven oil reserves, may portend shifting
fortunes in the Middle East. Israel and Saudi Arabia, both
longtime U.S. allies, have opposed any deal that allows Iran to
retain sensitive nuclear technologies.

Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war with Iran in Syria,
supporting the rebels fighting to oust Iranian ally Bashar al-Assad, and has expressed frustration with U.S. reluctance to
back the cause. Israel has signaled it’s ready to take
unilateral military action against Iran to halt a nuclear
program it says is a threat to its existence.

“A bad deal definitely increases the need for action,”
Israeli Trade & Industry Minister Naftali Bennett said
yesterday. “If the deal gives Iran the ability to achieve a
bomb within six weeks we won’t be able to sit idly by. We will
examine all possibilities.”

Opponents of a thaw with Iran have support in the U.S.
Congress, where legislators from both parties have pledged to
seek tighter sanctions. It’s not clear whether they’ll abandon
or escalate those efforts as a result of the Geneva accord.

Iranian hardliners have also expressed skepticism over any
accord that limits the country’s nuclear work.