Thursday, February 20, 2014

Sadr’s Retirement, Tactical Move Before Elections Or Long Term Disappointment With Political Process?

In February 2014 Moqtada al-Sadr suddenly announced his
retirement from politics. He claimed that he wanted to protect his family’s
name, and was upset with the state of Iraq’s government. He then went on a
blistering attack of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in a speech meant to
elaborate on his reasons for bowing out. Like his previous retirement in August
2013, this appears to be a calculated move by Sadr to rally his forces. This is
timed just before national elections scheduled for April where the Sadrists
believe they can not only gain more seats, but pose a serious challenge to a
third term for Maliki.

(Independent)

February 15, Sadr issued a notice
on his website that he was done with politics. Sadr ordered
all of his offices to be shut and that his representatives could no longer
speak on his behalf. His stated reason was that he wanted to maintain his
reputation and family name against what saw as the deprivation of his movement
and government. For
example, there were stories that Sadr found corruption within his party,
and was angry with some of his parliamentarians voting for the pension law this
month. A few days later he gave a speech from Najaf elaborating on his
decision. It turned out to be a fiery diatribe against Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki. Sadr called the premier a dictator
who was to
blame for the bloody fighting in the country that hindered peace and
prosperity. He claimed the entire government had fallen under the sway of
politicians who only cared about their own personal gain rather than developing
the country. He then went on to say that good politicians from his political
list should continue with their work, but could not claim to be part of his
movement anymore. He specifically mentioned Maysan Governor Ali Dway Lazem and
Baghdad Governor Ali al-Tamimi as examples of Sadrists who were serving the
people and should continue on in their positions. Finally, Sadr said that
people should follow his example and vote in this year’s election. This
announcement caught everyone by surprise. With just two months before national
balloting all the parties were just beginning to ramp up their campaigns. Now
one of the major lists was seemingly pulling out of the game.

Not only was Iraq caught off guard by Sadr’s decision, it seemed
like his own list was as well. Immediately after Sadr’s announcement eight
politicians from his Ahrar (Liberal) bloc, Zainab
Taie, Iman Musawi, Maha Dori, Hussein Mansouri, Hussein Alwan al-Lami,
Hussein Humham, Jawad
Shihili, and Jaafar
Musawi all said they were resigning from parliament. Former parliamentarian
Fawzi
Turzi said that he would not run in 2014, and several provincial council
members in Qadisiyah and the deputy governor Hussein
Musawi, and the deputy governor in Wasit Adel Hamza Hamidi
all said they were pulling out of politics as well out of respect for Sadr. The
head of the Sadr bloc Diyah
al-Asadi told the press that these were all individual acts, and not due to
a decision by the list. After Sadr’s speech the party’s politicians said that
they would reconsider their withdrawals, and there were reports
that the movement told its members to stop resigning. Given the fact that the
Ahrar bloc holds 40 seats in parliament and 47 members on various provincial
councils the number of people who followed Sadr’s lead was rather miniscule.
They could have been doing it symbolically to prove their loyalty to Sadr or be
part of his plan to show how upright his list is.

This is not the first time that Sadr has dropped out of
politics. Back in August 2013 he said he
was retiring as well. That time there was even more confusion as the list
initially denied the story. Then it turned it into a major event where hundreds
of members showed their devotion to Sadr, and militia leaders sent him a letter
marked with their own blood pledging their support for him. The cause behind
that retirement was Sadr’s desire to rally his forces, and deal with some
feuding factions within his movement. With order restored Sadr returned and
continued on with his business. This most recent decision looks to be aimed at
achieving the same goal. Already his supporters swarmed his office in Najaf
urging him to reconsider his withdrawal on February 15, and then two days later
hundreds
marched in Maysan saying that they stood behind their leader. Getting his
base riled up before the vote is an obvious goal of his.

Rather than being an act of disgust at Iraq’s political system,
this latest move by Moqtada al-Sadr appears to be a calculated move to prepare
his party of this year’s election. Various members of his list have showed
their devotion by symbolically retiring with Sadr. Hundreds of his followers
have gone out into the streets to display their loyalty. Sadr has told them
that they should all vote this year. If he doesn’t reconstitute his list before
the April balloting he will most likely tell his movement who to vote for as he
did in 2009 when the Sadrists did not run as an official party. He has also
made it clear that this year’s election is all about the prime minister. In his
speech he made it clear that Maliki is to blame for all of Iraq’s problems.
While in 2010 Sadr threw his weight behind the prime minister, which assured
him of a second term, this year Moqtada believes that he can make a real
challenge to his rule. This was shown after the 2013 provincial vote when Ahrar
worked with other parties to shut out Maliki’s State of Law from several of the
new local governments. Finally, Sadr’s announcement and subsequent speech has
gained all the headlines not only in Iraq, but in the region and internationally.
This has given him far more attention than a regular campaign could have. Two
months from now observers can see whether this decision paid off or not.

Iraq History Timeline

About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com