Nation nearly 100% ready (pigs fly)

President Clinton's point man on Y2K told
a group of Phoenix residents Monday that
the nation's key systems are ready for Jan.
1, 2000.

"The national infrastructure is closing in
on 100 percent," White House Council on
Year 2000 Chairman John Koskinen said
of the latest calculation of Y2K
preparedness. Last month, the nation was
deemed 98 percent ready.

He said questions remain about local and
international preparedness. But
international problems will not result in
the accidental launch of nuclear weapons
and are not expected to hurt the U.S.
economy.

"Y2K is a real problem," Koskinen told
the 90 people who showed up for a Y2K
Community Conversation at the Pueblo
Grande Museum on Monday night.

"It's probably the biggest management
problem the world has ever faced. On the
other hand, we've made tremendous
progress."

Koskinen said that banks, air traffic,
telecommunications and utilities have all
demonstrated their readiness. Before
repairs, some computers would have
confused 2000 with 1900.

The Year 2000 guru said that he
personally will have enough food, water
and flashlight batteries in his house to last
a few days, but he doesn't expect to need
them.

"My guess is that power outages will be
measured in minutes and hours, not days,"
he said in an interview before the
program. "I think ice and snow will be
responsible for more outages (on Jan. 1)
than Y2K."

Koskinen has enough confidence in airline
preparations that he will fly on New
Year's Eve from Washington, D.C., to
New York. At that time the airlines will
already be in 2000 because they run on
Greenwich Mean Time.

At the same time, Koskinen said questions
remain about local education, from grade
school through college, about small
businesses and small health-care
operations.

"There are people taking a wait-and-see
approach. They may think that they don't
have a big IT (information technology)
operation. They'll just fix it if it breaks.

"They may find a bottleneck and it may
take weeks or months. There will
probably be some businesses that fail."

Koskinen said many countries waited too
long to start working on the problem and
will run out of time and resources.

"Some are going to have real problems. I
don't think it will affect our economy.
Fortunately, much of our foreign trade is
with Canada and Mexico and they're
basically done (with preparations.)"

Residents were also told that the Phoenix
is ready, including its water system.

"Every single department is Y2K
compliant," said Councilwoman Peggy
Bilsten, who chairs the city's
Transportation and Technology
Subcommittee.

She said the city tested a contingency plan
for the water supply system by shutting
down the computers and running
everything manually.

Other members of the panel said that
systems from the 911 emergency dispatch
to the county jail and local pharmacy
have been tested and contingency plans
have been drawn up.

Police Lt. Mike DeBenedetto said that the
911 system passed a date rollover test and
another test overloading it with callers. He
also said that cell doors in the county jail
default to a closed position in the event of
any problems. He said that there will be
extra dispatchers working New Year's
Eve and that Sheriff Joe Arpaio will have
extra detention officers.

Koskinen said pharmaceutical companies
with foreign factories have stockpiled raw
materials to ensure that the supply line is
not interrupted.

John Carpenter of Walgreen's said his
chain has increased supplies at its
Flagstaff distribution center.

William White of US West said that
phones are ready for 2000.

"It's reasonably safe to say that on Jan. 1,
the sun will shine and the phones will
ring," he said.

Answers

Some are going to have real problems. I don't think it will affect
our economy. Fortunately, much of our foreign trade is with Canada and
Mexico and they're basically done (with preparations.)..."

Canada is our #1 partner and, with the help of NAFTA, Mexico became #2
recently (passing Japan). We run major trade deficits with both of
them (approx. $20 Billion each), so we got "issues" even if they are
"Y2K-ready". Pretty cold comfort there.

Trade deficit numbers spooked the market last month. The September
trade numbers come out tomorrow. Wonder how much we owe everyone else
at present...

But what is it we import from Canada and Mexico? I know food is a
heavy item for both and, for Mexico, some electronics, oil and
clothing. But it seems almost everything I buy these days is made in
China, including clothing and electronics. In addition, last week I
saw London Fog coats made in Belarus and Misty Harbor coats made in
Ukraine.

Aren't the numbers based on dollar amounts? Just because we import
expensive items from those two countries doesn't mean we'll be okay if
other countries have problems. It's the little things that will cause
serious problems--like pharmaceuticals, for instance, and the raw
materials obtained from developing countries. Even the most ardent
optimist has to admit that Koskinen's remarks are a bit too glib, Y2K
or no Y2K.