OPEC Price Fight Weighs on Oil

US shale Bakersfield

Orlando Vargas
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13 March, 2018, 12:29

Brent crude futures were at $65.11 a barrel at 9.20am GMT, down 38c from their previous close. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 68 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to settle at US$61.36 per barrel.

As the rig count fell, "the market is starting to think that US shale oil production may not steadily grow, which is supporting oil prices", Takayuki Nogami, chief economist at state-backed Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corp., said by phone from Tokyo.

Oil prices fell on Monday as investors grappled with ongoing concerns over rising U.S. output and tight Opec supply, while last week's data showing speculators cut bets on oil suggested more selling could be seen.

OPEC and external allies such as Russian Federation have been involved in a yearslong effort to eliminate about 2% of the global crude supply and prop up crude prices that underwent an nearly three-year downturn.

Despite the drop in the rig count, which is often used an as early indicator of future production, activity remains much higher than a year ago when just 617 rigs were active.

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"Rising production and inventory in the United States has been reducing fund sentiment since it peaked at the end of January", ING said in a note. The most bullish scenario will be a weaker U.S. Dollar and higher equity prices.

He went on to state that while Friday's favourable job data from the USA and the first decline in rig counts in two months "might suggest a test of the high side of this expected range first, we still view downside price risk exceeding that to the upside".

That's more than top exporter Saudi Arabia producers and almost as much as Russian Federation pumps out, at nearly 11 million bpd.

Broader markets were roiled by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to go ahead with tariffs in imported steel and aluminum, sparking fears of a trade war.

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