»05/15/2012MIDDLE EASTThe rise of Islamist political economy: the new capitalistsby Fawaz A GergesAfter gaining power during the Arab Spring, Islamist parties are seeking solutions to improve the economy of the Islamic states. For Fawaz A Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, free market capitalism is the new model used by the Islamists after years of socialism. Turkey the flagship of the new Islamic movements.

London (AsiaNews / Open Democracy) - In the aftermath of the Arab uprisings, Islamists
or religious-based activists are poised over coming years to take ownership of
the seats of power in the Arab heartland. They have already won majorities of
parliamentary seats in a number of countries, including Tunisia, Egypt
and Morocco, and will likely
make further gains in Libya
and Jordan (and maybe even
in Syria
after the dust settles on the raging battlefield there).

In the last four decades, centrist or modernist
Islamists, most of whom accept the rules of the political game, brilliantly
positioned themselves as the alternative to the failed secular
"authoritarian bargain". They invested considerable capital in
building social networks on the national and local levels, including
non-government professional civil society associations, welfare, and family
ties. In contrast to their secular-minded opponents, Islamists have mastered
the art of local politics and built a formidable political machine that
repeatedly has proved able to deliver the vote. Islamists' recent parliamentary
victories are not surprising, because they had paid their dues and earned the
trust of voters. These results show that they are cashing in on social
investments made under authoritarian rule in their local communities.

Although Islamists did not trigger the revolts
that shredded the Arab authoritarian order to pieces, their decades-long
resistance to autocratic rulers turned them into shadow governments in the
peoples' eyes. A vote for the Islamists implied a clean break with the failed past
and a belief (still to be tested) that they can deliver the goods - jobs,
economic stability, and transparency. Thus the political fortunes of rising
Islamists will ultimately depend on whether they live up to their promises and
meet the rising expectations of the Arab publics.

The business agenda

Islamist parties are increasingly becoming
"service" parties: an acknowledgment that political legitimacy and
the likelihood of re-election rests on the ability to deliver jobs, economic
growth, and to demonstrate transparency. This factor introduces a huge degree
of pragmatism in their policies. The example of Turkey, especially its economic
success, has had a major impact on Arab Islamists, many of whom would like to
emulate the Turkish model. The Arab Islamists have, in other words, understood
the truth of the slogan, "It is the economy, stupid!" The Turkish
model, with the religiously observant provincial bourgeoisie as its kingpin,
also acts as a reminder that Islam and capitalism are mutually reinforcing and
compatible.

It is notable that the Islamists' economic agenda
does not espouse a distinctive "Islamic" economic model. This is
unsurprising, however, as an Islamic economic model does not exist. Islamists
suffer from a paucity of original ideas on the economy and have not even
developed a blueprint to tackle the structural socioeconomic crisis in Arab
societies.

Nevertheless, what distinguishes centrist
religious-based groups from their leftist and nationalist counterparts is a
friendly sensibility toward business activities including wealth accumulation
and free-market economics. Islamism is a bourgeois movement consisting mostly
of middle-class professionals, businessmen, shopkeepers, petty merchants and
traders.

If there is a slogan that best describes Islamists'
economic attitude, it would be: "Islam-is-good-for-business". Many
Arab Islamists admire and wish to imitate the example of Turkey, even though they know little about the
complexity of the country's economy and lack Turkey's strategic economic model.
What impresses them is Turkey's
economic dynamism, especially the dynamism of the religiously observant
provincial bourgeoisie who have turned Anatolian towns such as Kayseri,
Konya and Gaziantep
into industrial powerhouses driving the growth of the Turkish economy.

For example, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has
assured the western powers of its commitment to free-market capitalism. The
architect of the Brotherhood's economic policy, the millionaire businessman
Khairat al-Shater, has silenced voices within the organisation that call for a
more egalitarian, socialist approach. Although he does not hold elected office,
in April 2012 he met the International Monetary Fund team which is negotiating
a $3.2-billion loan facility with the Egyptian government. The IMF has said it
wants broad political backing for the deal.

After the Brotherhood confirmed al-Shater as a
presidential candidate (and prior to his disqualification by Egypt's election
commission), the group intensified its contacts with western states; al-Shater
himself offered direct reassurance to diplomats and economists from the United
States during their visits to Cairo (see Ramadan Al Sherbini, "Broherhood
Courts the West," Gulf News, 5 April 2012).

In an interview with Al-Jazeera, al-Shater said
that economic development would be the most pressing priority for his
administration and would be based on structural reforms and growth (see Anas
Ziki, "Al-Shater: We are competing for president because of a plot to make
us fail", Al-Jazeera [in Arabic], 12 April 2012). Mohamed Habib, a former
deputy supreme guide of the Brotherhood, said that "[the Brothers]
tightened the screws on anyone who had different ideas about economics"
(see David D Kirkpatrick, "Keeper of Islamic Flames Rises as Egypt's New Decisive Voice", New York Times, 12 March
2012).

The "Islamic" economy

Yet if centrist-Islamists are generally for
free-market economy and have always been, they are also likely to seek
religious legitimation for their economic policies. For example, Islamist
parties have publicly vowed to promote social justice and have stressed their
long record of social work among the poor. Most have chosen names like
"Justice and Development" or "Freedom and Justice", a
choice which shows their concerns, if not their priorities. In this sense, some
Islamist-specific economic measures and ideas will be introduced to complement
free-market capitalism (for a detailed account of the Brotherhood's economic
plan and the projects it intends to launch, see Hani al-Waziri, "Al Masri
Al Youm publishes details of the 'Brotherhood's renaissance' plans: Economic
restructuring according to Islamic principles...and 100 national
projects", Almasry-alyoum [in Arabic], 26 April 2012).

The Muslim Brothers, along with the Salafists, who
are religiously ultra-conservative but are less enamoured with the free market
than the Brothers, have already called for the introduction of an index of
companies that comply with Sharia law, as part of a wider move toward
an "Islamic" economy. The idea is designed to appeal to their base
and to attract investments from the Gulf Arab region, where a Sharia-compliant
economic system exists, but does not alter the basics of Islamists' preference
for free-market capitalism (see Heba Saleh, "Egyptian officials look to
set up Islamist index", Financial Times, 1 February 2012).

Similarly, according to one of the architects of
Ennahda's economic programme in Tunisia,
Ridha Chkoundali, "The banking system will be diversified and the Tunisian
financial market will therefore be made up of traditional and Islamic banks... As
a result, there will be more competition between the banks." In Morocco
too, the newly designated prime minister Abdelilah Benkirane ackowledged the
importance of addressing economic issues: "We will do everything to
encourage foreign and domestic investment to create a climate of
prosperity" (see "Morocco Embraces Democracy as King Mohammed VI
Appoints New Cabinet ↑ ",
Morocco News Agency, 3 January 2012).

The dual challenge

There is nothing in Islamists' current statements
and ideas that shows them to be socialist-oriented, though most readily accept
the Keynesian model of active state intervention in the economy. Among
Islamists, the interventionist approach appeals most to Salafists, who
forcefully call for the adoption of distributive measures to address rampant
poverty. Yet the dominant Islamist approach to the economy, with minor
variations, is free-market capitalism. In Egypt,
Tunisia and Morocco, the
Brotherhood, Ennahda and the Justice & Development Party have sufficient
interests to deal with global financial institutions like the International
Monetary Fund and the World Bank; they do not have the luxury or ideological
sensibility to be insular because their countries do not have access to huge
rents and raw resources, especially petroleum.

These Islamists also face a huge challenge: to
deliver critical economic improvements in the short term, while devising a
long-term comprehensive reform agenda that lays the foundation of a productive
economy. The dismal socioeconomic conditions in transitioning Arab countries -
abject poverty, double-digit unemployment, the absence of a competitive private
sector, against a background of rising expectations - mean that the new
governments will be hard pressed to focus on distributive policies and urgent
short-term needs.

Yet like other political groups, Islamist parties
have their sights on the electoral map and want to be re-elected. Will they
have the time, space and vision to invest in innovation, technology and the
knowledge economy in order to engineer sustainable development; or will they
succumb to instrumentalist political temptation by pursuing short-term
electoral gains?

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