Originally posted by BrianGO:
Aldon Smith insinuated on NFLN that he will be the number 1 player on the NFL's top 100 next year. In other words, the best player in the league. He is going to want a max contract. 16 mil per is probably on the cheap side of what he will ask for.

Kap is no doubt going to want a max contract as well. 20 mil per is on the cheap side of what he will ask for. When quarterbacks like Romo and Stafford are making more than that in 2014+ I'm not sure why this surprises people.

Brown is the least of our worries. Any veteran who makes any kind of money has the potential to get cut. The only untouchables are probably Willis and Bowman.

Why do people think Justin Smith signed on the cheap? Because he knew he would be released if he did not.

Why do you keep saying that about Justin Smith. He wasnt ever gonna get cut. He would of retired or signed elsewhere. He NEVER would of been cut, he did us a favor, we needed his production, 1st major injury he had, and he still played good once back. Dude is a fighter, and proud he is a 49er. One of my fav 49ers of all time. And favorite veteran FA pickup of all time that I can recall. Only 29, so previous years are blank to me.

Ok, not cut, you're right; but he needed to reduce his cap figure, and he did. Otherwise we would not have resigned him. Of course not because of his ability, but because of cap issues.

Some people think we can get Aldon for 8 mil per and Kap for around 12 mil per and then Iupati for like 3 mil per, or something ridiculous like that. I'm just trying to prepare people for next off season when the s**t hits the fan. We are going to lose a LOT of players and the webzone might go nuclear. Veterans are always going to be the ones to go first.

There's this odd vibe around here by many that we are going to be able to keep everyone we have through some front office magic.
The front office has been great, but they can't pull off miracles, and they have also been a bit lucky up to this point.
We got RayMac pretty cheap, we got Bowman pretty cheap, we got Staley dirt cheap, now we got Smith for cheap. Mac and Staley were signed at the perfect time, Bowman just wants to be here. Justin Smith obviously wants to be here too.

Those four players are exceptions. We are now staring at Kap (who currently makes nothing), Aldon (who is currently on his super discount rookie contract), Iupati and Crabtree. Despite all of our bargain signings, we are still at the edge of the salary cap right now. This means we have to cut out 20 mil per (for Kap), 16 mil per (for Aldon), and maybe 20 mil per for Iupati and Crabtree. That's 56 millon that has to come from gutting our roster. Even without Crabtree, that's still 45 mil of roster cuts.
We don't have 4 Alex Smith's on our roster to cut. We are going to have to cut a LOT of good players, veteran players, there is simply no way around it. I don't think it will cripple us. We draft well. I'm just saying people will have to be prepared.

*Edit: replace the word "cut" with "lose". I don't know why I keep using the word "cut". I use it metaphorically, like "cutting the fat out".

^^ Even though Kap, Aldon, Iupati and Crabs are due for big paydays, it doesn't mean they will all count against the cap in the same way. Now, I personally think they will let Crabs walk away and resign the other three....but they can "load-balance" the cap numbers in a way that provides them with the flexibility they need to maintain a quality roster.

That said, I think they're "all in" this year and regardless of the outcome, they'll likely shed (or reduce the cap # for) a lot of the veterans in 2014 like Rogers (might happen sooner), Dahl, Justin, Gore, McDonald and even potentially Brooks. They could also work with Bowman and Willis to restructure their respective deals to make more room. Bottom line, there's always a way to make it work so long as you know how to play the cap game, and this team does.

It's possible they may not want to pay Brown what he might be able to earn in the FA market...so their thinking might be let him test the waters and when he doesn't get that big offer he may be expecting, he'll re-sign for a more reasonable price. If Wright settles down and plays a solid CB they may want to invest in him, instead. Only time will tell...at this point it's only speculation, so we'll see. Typically players in the last year of the contracts perform exceptionally well, and that could have a bearing on whether Brown stays a Niner or not.

I agree that tough decisions are in Baalke's future. If the following players return, it may be for a lower price than their 2013 salary. Something has got to give if Kap is going to make $20, Aldon makes $15, and Iupati makes $6. We can't assume that every player is going to give a hometown discount.

Whitner's, Carlos Roger's, Goodwin's current salaries will be off the books in some manner after the 2013 season. That's the easy part.

The harder part:
Gore: Will be 32(?) and if Hunter/Latimore show improvement and promise, Gore needs to take a paycut to stay.
Brooks: So much is already invested in Willis, Bow, and soon Aldon. How much can the 49ers afford to pay Brooks?
Vernon Davis: If McDonald can show potential to be a #1 TE, Davis' salary is considered excess fat imo. Vernon's contract must be considered if the issue is resigning Aldon or Kap. He needs to show consistent chemistry with Kap to warrant his cap figure. No more 4 week stretches where he is no where on the stat sheet.
Andy Lee: $2.4 for a punter is a luxury that I am not sure a team like the 49er's can afford. Love the guy, but that's a hefty price tag for a specialist.

Brown will cash in from some desperate team in need of a CB. I see the 2014 draft addressing several DB positions. How off am I regarding the players that need to take paycuts?

Originally posted by thl408:
I agree that tough decisions are in Baalke's future. If the following players return, it may be for a lower price than their 2013 salary. Something has got to give if Kap is going to make $20, Aldon makes $15, and Iupati makes $6. We can't assume that every player is going to give a hometown discount.

Whitner's, Carlos Roger's, Goodwin's current salaries will be off the books in some manner after the 2013 season. That's the easy part.

The harder part:
Gore: Will be 32(?) and if Hunter/Latimore show improvement and promise, Gore needs to take a paycut to stay.
Brooks: So much is already invested in Willis, Bow, and soon Aldon. How much can the 49ers afford to pay Brooks?
Vernon Davis: If McDonald can show potential to be a #1 TE, Davis' salary is considered excess fat imo. Vernon's contract must be considered if the issue is resigning Aldon or Kap. He needs to show consistent chemistry with Kap to warrant his cap figure. No more 4 week stretches where he is no where on the stat sheet.
Andy Lee: $2.4 for a punter is a luxury that I am not sure a team like the 49er's can afford. Love the guy, but that's a hefty price tag for a specialist.

Brown will cash in from some desperate team in need of a CB. I see the 2014 draft addressing several DB positions. How off am I regarding the players that need to take paycuts?

Should have about 30 million in cap room for the 2015 season. Rogers will be cut by then, no way he makes 9 million, he may be cut or asked to restructure next year if he still looks like he has something. That's 9 millions saved, given the exact figured, we'd be at about 37.5 or so in room. Brooks makes a ton of money as well so that's a good observation. Ray will be nearing the end of his contract (2015) he may be extended or cut by then, by then we'll have a good idea of where Tank fits in. If he can adequately replace Smith, Brooks or RayMac, we could see anywhere between 6-8 million saved there as well. Vernon at 7 million isn't horrible but as you noted could be a casualty. However, if Andy is a Pro-Bowler in a couple of years I don't think saving a million or so by cutting him is worth it. Gore will have been cut or resigned to a smaller amount by then. Some money will obviously be allocated due to extension, rookies and the like. AB is the guy to ask about this, I'm just speculating here but....

I can see us getting Kaep for 15-18 million if he has a good year and Aldon for 12-15 (max). Clay makes 11.5 or so, Peppers makes 14. We're looking at 30 or so for those two guys. With some restructuring and no big FA spending I could see us getting Iupati back as well. If he wants Nicks or Mankins money at 9-10 million, we will likely let him walk. Kaep and Aldon are more important, Looney is promising, this preseason we should be watching Looney very closely as he may be the heir apparent. Brooks salary is really surprising to me, he's top 3-5 in salary. That will change with Kaep and Aldon but still...also no mention of Crabtree because he is likely gone.

Current situation gives us a solid window of 2 years with this core. Let's get it done this year.

Originally posted by thl408:
I agree that tough decisions are in Baalke's future. If the following players return, it may be for a lower price than their 2013 salary. Something has got to give if Kap is going to make $20, Aldon makes $15, and Iupati makes $6. We can't assume that every player is going to give a hometown discount.

Whitner's, Carlos Roger's, Goodwin's current salaries will be off the books in some manner after the 2013 season. That's the easy part.

The harder part:
Gore: Will be 32(?) and if Hunter/Latimore show improvement and promise, Gore needs to take a paycut to stay.
Brooks: So much is already invested in Willis, Bow, and soon Aldon. How much can the 49ers afford to pay Brooks?
Vernon Davis: If McDonald can show potential to be a #1 TE, Davis' salary is considered excess fat imo. Vernon's contract must be considered if the issue is resigning Aldon or Kap. He needs to show consistent chemistry with Kap to warrant his cap figure. No more 4 week stretches where he is no where on the stat sheet.
Andy Lee: $2.4 for a punter is a luxury that I am not sure a team like the 49er's can afford. Love the guy, but that's a hefty price tag for a specialist.

Brown will cash in from some desperate team in need of a CB. I see the 2014 draft addressing several DB positions. How off am I regarding the players that need to take paycuts?

Should have about 30 million in cap room for the 2015 season. Rogers will be cut by then, no way he makes 9 million, he may be cut or asked to restructure next year if he still looks like he has something. That's 9 millions saved, given the exact figured, we'd be at about 37.5 or so in room. Brooks makes a ton of money as well so that's a good observation. Ray will be nearing the end of his contract (2015) he may be extended or cut by then, by then we'll have a good idea of where Tank fits in. If he can adequately replace Smith, Brooks or RayMac, we could see anywhere between 6-8 million saved there as well. Vernon at 7 million isn't horrible but as you noted could be a casualty. However, if Andy is a Pro-Bowler in a couple of years I don't think saving a million or so by cutting him is worth it. Gore will have been cut or resigned to a smaller amount by then. Some money will obviously be allocated due to extension, rookies and the like. AB is the guy to ask about this, I'm just speculating here but....

I can see us getting Kaep for 15-18 million if he has a good year and Aldon for 12-15 (max). Clay makes 11.5 or so, Peppers makes 14. We're looking at 30 or so for those two guys. With some restructuring and no big FA spending I could see us getting Iupati back as well. If he wants Nicks or Mankins money at 9-10 million, we will likely let him walk. Kaep and Aldon are more important, Looney is promising, this preseason we should be watching Looney very closely as he may be the heir apparent. Brooks salary is really surprising to me, he's top 3-5 in salary. That will change with Kaep and Aldon but still...also no mention of Crabtree because he is likely gone.

Current situation gives us a solid window of 2 years with this core. Let's get it done this year.

Agreed with what you said GoldenJoe. I dont see Kap demanding 20M a yr, he is IMO a top 10-15 QB right now, but he should take the short 4 yr deal like Rodgers did in GB, then maximize your value, get the 100M deal when you're really in your prime. Aldon I agree 12M Max. But sounds like he wants to be paid top OLB money, and if he continues the progress, he should. I think he is better than Clay, I think Matthews is a bit overrated.

Vernon at 7M isnt bad, he is still a top 5-10 TE, Vance is viewed as Delanie's replacement.

Crabs is an unknown, will he come back healthy. I wouldnt extend him, unless there are triggers for health and missing or playing games. So we are safe on our side.

Agreed. Aldon is better than Matthews, better measurables as well. Top paid OLB would demand 12-13 million and I think that would be fair value, a 5 year 60-65 million dollar type deal. Maybe the Broncos save us the trouble of figuring out a number if they extend Von Miller first.

Originally posted by GoldenJoe:
Agreed. Aldon is better than Matthews, better measurables as well. Top paid OLB would demand 12-13 million and I think that would be fair value, a 5 year 60-65 million dollar type deal. Maybe the Broncos save us the trouble of figuring out a number if they extend Von Miller first.

yep yep yep. He is worth it. Once the 2013 season is up, hopefully we can retain Kap, Iupati and Aldon all in 2014, so when 2015 comes, we can tag Crabs if he is back 100%.

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