Groundbreaking

SQUARING THE MISES CIRCLE

“Eureka! Skousen has done the impossible. Students love it! I will never go back to another textbook.”

– Professor Harry Veryser, University of Detroit-Mercy

They said it couldn’t be done. Austrian economics is so different, they said, that it couldn’t be integrated into standard “neo-classical” textbooks. Consequently, college students learn little or nothing about the great Austrian economists (Mises, Hayek, Schumpeter).

Starting with Menger’s “Theory of the Good” and the Profit-and-Loss Income Statement

Professor Mark Skousen’s Economic Logic (now in its new 5th edition) aims to change that. Based on his popular course taught at Chapman University, Columbia Business School, and other institutions, Skousen starts his “micro” section with Carl Menger’s “theory of the good” and the profit-and-loss income statement to explain the dynamics of the market process, entrepreneurship, and the advantages of saving. Business students find this approach especially valuable. After analyzing the dynamics of the P&L statement, supply and demand diagrams are introduced.

Linking Micro and Macro

Then he incorporates a simplified version of “Hayek’s Triangles,” a powerful four-stage model of the economy to link micro and macro economics for the first time. For micro, he uses Stanford Professor John Taylor’s 4-stage process of making coffee:

Figure 1. Four Stages of Production of Espresso Coffee.

Then for the macro model, Dr. Skousen uses this universal 4-stage diagram:

Notice that this Hayekian 4-stage model ties into national income accounting. GDP represents the final stage of production – the value of all finished goods and services produced in a year.

GO Behind GDP: Measuring Hayek’s Triangle

Every quarter a public-traded company releases a financial statement that includes both the “top line” (revenues/sales) and a “bottom line” (earnings, net income).

Using the 4-stage model of the economy, Skousen applies the same approach to national income accounting. Based on his work, The Structure of Production (NYU Press, 1990), he identifies gross output (GO) as the value of all 4 stages of production (#1 through #4 above) or the “top line” in national income accounting, and GDP (stage #4) as the “bottom line.”

GO is a measure of Hayek’s triangle. It adds up sales or revenues at all stages of production throughout the year, while GDP counts only final sales.

GO is a vital statistic, as it includes the value of the supply chain, all the business-to-business (B2B) transactions that move the production process toward final use. It is a measure of the “make” economy, while GDP estimates the value of the “use” economy.

In Economic Logic, GO is incorporated as a more comprehensive measure of the economy, serves as a valuable tool in analyzing the business cycle, restores the business sector as the major driver of the economy, and deserves to be updated on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

GO is now a reality. In April, 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the Department of Commerce announced it will publish GO every quarter along with GDP. Austrian economics (Hayek’s triangles) is now officially part of macroeconomic accounting! (For Skousen’s latest press release on GO, go to www.mskousen.com.)

For the first time, the 5th edition of Economic Logic fully integrates GO in the chapters 14-15 on national income accounting and throughout the textbook. GO is presented as the top line, and GDP as the bottom line in national accounting. As economists Dale W. Jorgenson, Stephen Landefeld, and Bill Nordhaus state in their book “A New Architecture in US National Accounts,” “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Added Highlights to the 5th Edition

In addition, here’s new material found in the 5th edition:

John Mackey’s “stakeholder” model of capitalism has been incorporated into the stages-of-production process in chapter 3. Moving the production process along requires the cooperation of all economic inputs or stakeholders.

Updated discussions on job creation, the labor force participation rate, and the recovery after the Great Recession is discussed in detail in chapters 10 and 25. Chapter 10 also addresses the unemployment issues in Europe and America, and the prospects for renewed growth under a Trump administration.

Recent government regulations (Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank, SEC) following the 2008 financial crisis and the Bernie Madoff fraud are discussed in chapter 13.

The consumption and savings rate patterns of China are compared to those of the United States in chapter 17. This comparison helps to determine what drives the economy, consumer spending or savings/investment?

The end of the Federal Reserve’s “easy money” policies of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2017 are debated in chapter 19.

The on-going debate on “austerity” vs. “stimulus” has been added to chapter 22.

What factor is more significant in the business cycle, Keynesian lack of “aggregate demand” or Hayekian “malinvestment”? See chapter 25.

The rise of state capitalism in China is highlighted in chapter 27.

The international gold standard, the defects of central banking, and the Mises/Hayek theory of the business cycle.

A full critique of the Keynesian Aggregate Supply and Demand (AS-AD) model, and a revolutionary Austrian alternative (chapters 22 and 25). Plus a critique of Marxism and socialist central planning (chapter 27).

Economic Logic is dedicated to Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman, thus drawing from the best of the Austrian and Chicago schools of free-market economics.

A glossary of terms has been added to this edition.

What Economists Are Saying

“An excellent balance of theory and the real world that no other text has achieved.”

– Charles Baird, CalState East Bay

“Better than any book out there! Skousen presents real business economics in a clear, provocative and logical fashion.”

– Ian Mackechnie, University of Wales

“Perfect for any economics student — designed to maximize learning while minimizing monotony. Simple, direct, and comprehensive.”

– K. Au, home school instructor

“My college econ classes, filled with perplexing theories like the paradox of thrift, GDP and Keynesian fiscal policy, were completely refuted by this excellent free-market textbook. Students, if your professors don’t use this text, get it for yourself so you can really understand the concepts of sound economics.”

– Amazon review

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This new 5th edition (2017) of Economic Logic is a 714-page quality paperback published by Capital Press/Regnery. It retails for $79.95, but is available at a discount — only $39.95, plus $5 shipping & handling (for all orders outside the US, add an additional $15), by calling Ensign Publishing at:

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About the Author

Mark Skousen, Ph. D., is a Presidential Professor at Chapman University, has taught economics at Columbia University, is the former president of FEE, and is the author of over 25 books, including several in Austrian economics: The Structure of Production (NYU Press); Vienna and Chicago, Friends or Foes? (Capital Press), The Making of Modern Economics (Routledge), and A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street: Austrian Economics for Investors (LFB Books). For more information, go to www.mskousen.com.

Washington, DC (Wednesday, July 26, 2017): Gross output (GO), the top line of national accounting that measures spending at all stages of production, continued to increase much faster than GDP in the first quarter 2017, indicating a continued strong economy for 2017. Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, states, “First quarter GO suggests that a robust economy, despite a slowdown in GDP.”

Based on data released on Friday, July 21, 2017 by the BEA and adjusted to include all sales throughout the production process, nominal adjusted GO (GO*) increased at an annualized rate of 6.0% in the first quarter of 2017, which is just slightly lower than the previous quarter’s increase of 6.2%[1]. Nominal adjusted GO for the first quarter of 2017 increased substantially faster than 3.3% GDP growth and faster than the 5.6% growth of the unadjusted GO reported by the BEA.

Real GDP, the bottom line of national income accounting, rose at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first quarter 2017. Real GO* continues to grow much faster at a 2.5% rate.

Skousen states, “By focusing solely on final spending and the end of the economic chain, GDP can sometimes be a misleading indicator of economic performance. GO is a much better, more comprehensive view of total economic activity along the entire supply chain, and indicates a much more positive outlook.”

Moreover, according to a recent study by David Ranson, chief economist at HCWE & Co., GO anticipates changes in GDP by as much as 12 weeks in advance and thus serves as a reliable leading indicator: http://www.hcwe.com/guest/EW-0717.pdf

The Skousen B2B Index, a measure of business spending throughout the supply chain, continued growing at a brisk pace in the first quarter 2017. This continued growth indicates a sustained business activity recovery that started in the fourth quarter 2016 following the November presidential election of Donald Trump and continued through the first quarter of President Trump’s administration. In the first quarter, B2B transactions rose at an annual rate of 6.6% in nominal terms or 3.12% in real terms. Over the past two quarters – Q4 2016 and Q1 2017 – business spending increased a total of 15%. Last time that the Skousen B2B Index showed a business spending growth of 15% or more over two quarters was in the beginning of 2014.

After breaking the $40 trillion mark for the first time in the previous quarter, adjusted GO rose to $41.2 trillion and reached another first by exceeding the $41 trillion mark in the first quarter 2017. The current adj. GO is more than double the size of GDP ($19 trillion), which measures final output only.

The overall growth of GO resulted from the growth of almost all individual industries and sectors – especially industries in the early stages of production. Increased spending in the early stages, which tend to be leading economic indicators, is a good indication that the overall economy should continue expanding over the next few quarters.

Supply Chain Activity Continues Increasing

Out of the 29 Industries and sectors defined within GO, 26 sectors rose compared to the previous quarter. The mining sector followed a 30.2% annualized growth in the fourth quarter 2016 with a 62.7% boost in the first quarter 2017. However, the mining sector accounts for just 1% share of total GO, which diminishes the impact of this large increase on the overall GO. On the contrary, the manufacturing sector is almost a fifth of total GO (18% share). Therefore, the 6.3% annualized growth of the manufacturing sector has a much greater positive impact on the total GO. With a 9.6% annualized growth rate, non-durable goods outpaced durable goods, which rose at 4%.

Another sector with an 18% share of GO is the finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing sector. In the first quarter, this sector grew at a 6.7% annualized rate in nominal terms, which is 71% higher than the 4% increase in the fourth quarter 2016. The real estate, rental and leasing subsector, which accounts for 11.4% of total GO by itself, rose 5.6%

Compared to the previous quarter, spending fell in only three sectors. The largest drop of 12.7% is in the utilities sector. The arts, entertainment & recreation sector is down 3.6% and management of companies and enterprises fell 1.8%. However, these three sectors combined account for just 4.1% share of the total GO. Therefore, the negative performance of these few sectors could not dampen the continued growth of the GO overall.
Total government spending (11% share of total GO) increased 3% in the first quarter. While that growth rate is not particularly high, it is 50% higher than the previous quarter’s growth rate of 2%. The federal government grew at an annualized rate of only 0.5% in nominal terms and state and local government grew at a significantly higher rate of 4.1%.

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. The fact that the adjusted GO continued to grow faster than GDP is a positive sign.

Business Spending (B2B) Grows Faster Than Consumer Spending

We have also created a new business-to-business (B2B) index based on GO data. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity increased 7.7% to $23.75 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $13.1 trillion in the first quarter, which is equivalent to a 3.4% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 4.2% and consumer spending rose 1.5%.

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “There is no doubt that business activity has picked up in expectation of pro-business legislation in 2017.”

About GO and B2B Index

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at mskousen@chapman.edu, or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at skousenpub@gmail.com.

# # #

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[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2017 1st quarter is $33.3 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO is $41.2 trillion in Q1 2017. Thus, the BEA omits $7.9 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

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by Jeffrey Bingham Mead, History Education Council of Hawaii
March 11, 2009, Honolulu Advertiser
This writer uses my work compiling The Compleated Autobiography by Benjamin Franklin, which revealed a lot of the great Founding Father in his later, significant years, in a fascinating new analysis of China and its trade practices. Take a look!

Plus, some nice reader reviews of Investing in One Lesson on Cheap Best Books. An important book to read in today’s investing climate.

I was on his show a couple of weeks ago, and he told me between commercials, “Cleon Skousen’s book changed my life.” He has written an introduction to a new version of the book, which is expected to come out soon.

Jo Ann Skousen’s Odds & Trends

Movie reviews, theater reviews, and commentaries by Jo Ann Skousen, author, editor, professor and Mark's wife of 41 years. She is the Festival Director for the Anthem Libertarian Film Festival and the entertainment editor for Liberty Magazine.

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