There is something Tony Abbott needs to stop before the election – and it has nothing to do with boats.

Opinion polling is now the greatest threat to the Opposition Leader.

Abbott has seen close up that the will of the Australian public is no longer confined to being exercised once every three years.

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Julia Gillard was thrown overboard by her colleagues for one reason: her deep and unshakeable unpopularity.

Voters got their way before September 14 and now they appear to have someone just as unpopular, according to years of polling, in their sights.

The message from Friday's ReachTel poll for the Seven Network is that the public wants a hard-fought election – and quite possibly to dump Labor from office as punishment for six self-indulgent years – but that outcome does not seem to involve Abbott.

Malcolm Turnbull's advantage over Abbott as preferred Liberal leader is well established but his crushing – almost embarrassing – lead over Kevin Rudd should make Coalition strategists and the Liberal backbench sit up and think.

Since the return of Rudd, the line from backroom Liberals is that a tightening of the polls was inevitable and the Abbott-Rudd match up was always going to be tough.

But at 65:35 (on preferred prime minister), Turnbull's potential landslide lead over Rudd cannot be ignored.

Still, the minute-to-midnight timing in the election cycle and the Liberal Party's need to preserve its main line of attack against Labor's leadership merry-go-round make a change exceedingly unlikely.

The last thing Abbott needs is a threat from behind just as he is being outboxed by his official opponent.

He has appeared rattled this week.

Abbott's insistence that an emissions trading scheme is a ''so-called market in the non-delivery of an invisible substance to no one'' was rightly slammed as a return to the ''politics of climate denial and scepticism'' and a clear message to the rusted on conservative base.

267 comments

So, the Australian people are having an influence on who will be the next Prime Minister? Astonishing! What's next? A democratically elected leader by the people? Surely, we can't allow such democracy in Australia- it's unheard of.

Commenter

Peter

Location

Perth

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:17AM

It seems incredulous that people would not take the party they are voting for into consideration. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Greens and Malcom headed the Katter Party would the results be different?

Commenter

Oscar

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:31AM

What's really amazing is that 3% of people in the Age's poll would like Julie Bishop to lead Libs. What the?!! Surely the people who cast these votes are saboteurs!

Commenter

snag

Location

melb

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:38AM

our Westminster system of democratic government does not allow the people to elect the leader of the governing party, despite most party leaders increasingly being seem as "presidential" (& seemingly egotistically Wanting to be seem that way)

Commenter

Freddles

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:40AM

Oscar, You are spot on. A leader is only as good as the members who support them.If we keep responding to popularity politics then we will all end up equally stuffed. We need to stop expecting that party policies will suit all people all the time. Labor suits some, Liberal others, then there's greens etc. Perhaps if we stopped attacking each other and other people in general, we might actually get moving in a direction that suits most of the people most of the time.

Commenter

Nel

Location

Dear Oscar

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:44AM

Wishful thinking. The faceless men and the faceless corporations who really run the Liberal Party will never let it have an intelligent and independent-thinking leader in government. Never ever.

Commenter

Gurdjieff

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:51AM

Great comment Snag.

Commenter

society

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 11:55AM

Snag, I just voted for Julie Bishop. She was the funniest of a hilarious bunch of options.

Commenter

Party Stooge

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 12:00PM

Pity there wasn't a Cormann or Abetz option listed. I'd just love to see some REAL electoral poison leading the Libs!

Commenter

Cap'n Morgan

Location

Sydney

Date and time

July 19, 2013, 12:13PM

I think that we could make Christmas Isl a bit like Easter Island and erect giant statues of "Death Stare" Julie all along the hilltops. If that doesn't stop the boats nothing will.