Swine Flu: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

With more than 100 cases of swine flu now confirmed in the U.S., nations around the world are being urged to activate their pandemic plans in hopes of curbing the spread of this potentially deadly virus. However, as is the case with any pandemic threat, some people will question whether there’s really any danger at all. Well, is there? While it’s still too soon to tell, here is a short list of what we do and don’t know as AM examines swine flu: the good, the bad and the ugly.

the good

Cases outside of Mexico seem mild With only one confirmed death outside of Mexico — a 23-month-old Mexican infant who had been transferred to a hospital in Houston — the overwhelming majority of cases outside Mexico are seemingly mild, with most not even requiring hospitalization. More importantly, most cases seem to respond well to two anti-viral medications, Tamiflu and Relenza, which have been globally stockpiled in case of an influenza pandemic. However, one question remains: Why are cases in Mexico more severe than in other parts of the world? The most straightforward answer is that it’s a simple numbers game with the expectation that as the number of infections rise, so too will the number of severe cases and deaths. Some, however, blame Mexico City’s subpar sanitation and heavy air pollution, while others suggest that the virus may have mutated, becoming more mild, before it spread beyond Mexico’s border — a notion that seems unsubstantiated for now.

Seasonal influenza caused 36,000 deaths in the U.S. last year alone 36,000 deaths! This is good? Surprisingly, yes. Numbers such as these help to put things in perspective: Seasonal influenza, that flu that strikes each and every year, was to blame for roughly 36,000 death last year in the U.S. alone, a number that seems almost astronomical compared to the number of deaths caused by swine flu in Mexico City thus far (a “mere” 150 or so). Though this knowledge may put some minds at ease, it should be pointed out that 90% of deaths due to seasonal influenza were in those aged 65 or older. Swine flu, on the other hand, seems to target the young and healthy.

the bad

Initial reports suggest that swine flu is killing the young and otherwise healthy Initial reports suggested that the majority of those dying in Mexico City were young, 20- to 40-year-olds who were otherwise healthy. While these reports still need to be fully corroborated by experts on the ground, when news of this broke, it caused immediate panic. The reason: The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 similarly targeted this age group.