Hope he balls out at the combine and fulfills his dream if that’s the case. Just really hope he gets drafted if he does declare. That’s where I’m curious if he has his foot out the door enough to risk going undrafted vs. going back to school.

Wonder how much age plays a factor. He’s already 21. If he goes and doesn’t get drafted, I’ll be pretty sad for Charles. I think he has the tools and potential to be a mid first round pick at some point. Early 2nd round seems like the best case scenario, in which case I’ll be very happy for him if he declares.

If Charles plays at the combine like he did down the stretch, I think he could go first round–a little surprised that more people don’t feel this. Increasingly, I have come to believe that diehard fans are the most critical of players. . . we just tend to magnify every miss.

You have to downgrade our 2018-19 hopes considerably if he’s gone; he had emerged as our glue guy, and would have been a veteran leader next year. Who are our captains and steady hands at the tiller?

I wonder if Ibi Watson would still transfer if he knew that Charles Matthews was going to leave. Not sure he could have afforded to wait long enough to know, but suddenly there would be a hole at the 3 and I bet Ibi might have been fine with playing Poole/Iggy’s primary backup.

Interesting take on the die-hard fans being the most critical…some pretty good basketball minds that I’m friends with (who are not UM fans) also feel that we underestimate the value of our players.

I think we know Charles has some warts to his game, and we focus on those more than the fact he has an NBA body and the chance to really wow some people with his measurables, etc. It’s not like he can’t shoot, he’s just not at a percentage that we would think equates to NBA drafting. But there also isn’t a shot we haven’t seen him make, and I’m sure there are a few teams out there who think they could mold him into something special…or at the very least, serviceable.

I hope he comes back, in fact I think that is feedback he will get from most…but he came here for a reason, and it wasn’t to play a full 3 years after a transfer year. I wish him the best in this process and hope he gets a fair shake at the end of the process.

I think this is actually a really interesting point, as well, and one that I had not considered deeply. In my opinion, part of this is that fans are more critical of their own players; that they expect those players to only leave for the pros if they are considered first round picks or lacking major flaws (there is a failure to fully understand how players translate to the NBA); and/or because they selfishly would like them to return.

Not all wings in the NBA are going to be ball dominant nor are expected to be stars.
Consider this: I have recently thought a good comparison for Charles is Trevor Ariza. Ariza is more of a “small forward” than Charles; he is both taller and has a larger wingspan. And, yes, you would like Charles to have more ball skills if he is going to play the “2” at the next level. But, as the NBA transitions even more towards positionless basketball, including more switching on defense, this matters less than it has in the past.

I would say that Ariza has found a great niche in the NBA as the quintessential 3 and D wing – a role I think Charles could develop into, in time. Charles is similarly slight in frame to Ariza and both are long for their position. Surprising to note given his adequacy now, but in college, Ariza was actually a 24% shooter from 3 and shot 50.4% from the line – marks worse than Matthews this season. Their other college statistics were also very similar. In his first season in the league, Ariza shot 23% from distance (69% from the line) and it wasn’t until his 9th year in Washington that he became an above average shooter from three – which he has kept up since that time. He survived early in his career, and at times even thrived, because of his defense.

All of that is to say that even if he isn’t a proficient shooter or dribbler now, that doesn’t mean he can’t carve out a role for himself in the league. I would argue that his shooting form is solid and would improve given more attention, while his defense will still allow him to see the court in the near term, assuming he is able to pick up team defensive concepts. He is definitely more athletic than Ariza, although he does have less size. I don’t think it is far fetched that he could occupy a role similar to the one that Ariza occupied while he, too, developed a more consistent shooting stroke.

Ariza was also the 43rd pick, which is about as high as Charles could possibly hope to go. It would absolutely be Charles betting on himself if he decides to leave, which is fine. He definitely could grab a role in the NBA and I will definitely be rooting for him.

As a fan it would be disappointing because of the repercussions of next years team combined with us having several guys that would have left to be 2nd round picks or undrafted players recently. but I would never hold that against a player.

I think the Ariza comparison is a really good one and if Matthews turns into Ariza in the NBA we could probably consider him the most successful pro that JB has coached. But I would offer a little hesitation, being that Ariza did get picked in the 2nd round and 43rd overall. On top of having more size, Ariza also left after one season at UCLA and was only 19. He was able to earn himself a long term career by developing his shot and other skills once he got to the league. He didn’t have a breakout year with good shooting numbers until his 6th season in the NBA.

So if Matthews does turn pro this year, I would offer that Ariza’s results are pretty much the best case scenario both in terms of where he could get picked and career success. But I could honestly see an older, smaller Ariza out of college potentially not getting picked.

Some might think I am crazy but I see Matthews game as similar to DeMar DeRozan whose shot in college was not all that great and handle was loose but had great athleticism. Struggled his first few years in the league and began to find his footing. When your job is the the NBA you have all the time you need to hone your skills 24/7.

For me it’s more about being a higher pick so that you get the leash to get better. If you’re a 2nd round pick it’s alot easier to just cut bait and not wait around for a player to develop. If you are a 1st rounder you’ll get more leeway if you struggle out of the gate.

I don’t think I’ve seen this comparison in print before, so I’ve always had reluctance to state it, but I do think of CM as a poor man’s DeRozan. He’s always been the first player I compare him to. I do like the Ariza comparison too.

One I’ve always thought of was Corey Brewer. Same wiry frame, Brewer is a career 28% three point shooter and 71% from the line in the NBA, 35% and 70% during his time in college. Brewer is a legit 6’8" with a longer wingspan though, but I just don’t ever see Matthews being a scoring option like Derozan. Brewer has made a fine career for himself being a wing slasher / defender that I think Charles could emulate.

Maybe his play in somewhat recent years is clouding my memory, but I really don’t see this comparison for Charles. DeRozan has always been an exceptional shot maker in the mid-range, is a very good FT shooter, and has a plus handle. On the other end, the Raptors usually hide DeRozan on the opposing team’s least threatening offensive player from positions 1-3 – and I would think that at this stage, Matthews’ defense would be one of his predominant selling points.