Labor Day behind us, we enter the home stretch

September 6, 2016

There was a time when the campaigning didn't really start in earnest until Summer's end, but these days we are treated to many more months of election coverage in the run up to Election Day. Still, the passing of Labor Day remains a significant milestone of the election season. Interest will increase exponentially from now on as more and more casual political observers tune in.

So where do things stand exactly nine weeks from November 8? Hillary Clinton, as she has been from the moment Trump vs. Clinton became the matchup-apparent, still holds a commanding lead in the Electoral College. She claims two states won by Mitt Romney in 2012 - North Carolina and Georgia. Donald Trump is projected to win only Iowa among the states carried by President Obama in 2012. These three takeovers move the projected EV tally to 357 for Clinton and 181 for Trump. In 2012, Obama defeated Romney 332-206.

Trump's poor showing as of early September shouldn't be considered a death knell for the GOP's chances to take the White House in 2016, however. We still have nine weeks to go and no less than 107 of Clinton's EV cache are in the Weak DEM category (under 5% margin). That means just a slight turn in the political winds could quickly land this race in razor-close territory. Perhaps the Trump campaign's recent willingness to spend money on the effort will provide fuel for such a change in direction.

Regardless, there is still much more to see at this stage of the race. Despite Clinton's sizeable lead, this race is still very much undecided.

The general election begins - Clinton vs. Trump

May 9, 2016

For all practical purposes, it's now safe to say that Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump have secured the nominations of their respective parties. Polls taken so far indicate Clinton starts off in a very strong position. Unless Trump finds a way to flip a bunch of states, she will be the next president of the United States.

But a second Clinton in the Oval Office is by no means a foregone conclusion. We have six months yet to go, and Clinton's baggage is not insignificant. The key to this election will be how effective each campaign's mudslinging efforts will be. Both candidates bring mountains of negatives to the general election campaign, and negative political ads could reach historic levels as these two very unpopular candidates duke it out.

For Trump to overcome his huge electoral vote deficit, which stands at 172 right now, he'll need to capture nearly all the states currently listed as Weak or Mod DEM Hold without losing any red states. That's a tall task which would be easier if he could win Florida's 29 EVs. (The Sunshine State is listed as Strong DEM right now based on the latest Florida polls.) In any case, Trump needs to see a multitude of blue-to-red updates on the projection map for him to have a chance to win. So, there is little doubt Clinton is the favorite out of the starting gate. On the other hand, with all her shortcomings, it could be difficult for Hillary to hold onto to that advantage through Election Day.

Spring Update - Is there a landslide coming?

March 23, 2016

The race for the White House is shaping up to be a contest between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Despite the consistent drone of naysayers like me over the last eight months, Trump has proven to be a formidable Republican nomination candidate. It's becoming impossible to deny the growing sense of inevitability surrounding his run for the GOP nomination. As someone who does not favor Trump, I've had to resort to my Stop-Trump-O-Meter to find a glimpse of hope that he might not get there.

But, in truth, smart money is on the business mogul and reality TV star to win the right to face the Democratic nominee in November. His likely foe is, as it has been from the moment Joe Biden declined to run, former first lady and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She is steadily climbing the delegate mountain and will reach the 2,383-delegate pinnacle some time soon. Even if Bernie Sanders starts keeping her from winning 60% of the pledged delegates as she's done to this point, which he can't, he'll never overcome her superdelegate advantage.

So, barring a Hillary indictment, an unlikely contested GOP convention, or a third-party candidate put forth by Republicans unsatisfied with Trump, we are looking at Trump-Clinton tango in November. I know it's early - and I can already hear Trump fans pointing that out in no uncertain terms - but the polls are plentiful. And they speak volumes about the nature of the race in store. One thing they say loud and clear is that Donald Trump is as unliked as any nominee from any party in our lifetimes. His unfavorables are enormous (high 60's by some accounts) and his message resonates with a vocal and passionate few.

Unfortunately for his White House aspirations, you can't get elected with the support of 40% of the electorate - no matter how enthusiastically they cast their vote. And we see that truth in striking display in the latest state and national polls. In poll after poll, Hillary is beating Trump soundly on the national stage and even winning in states that should be Republican. The current EP Poll Average has her up 10.5 points. That's well into landslide territory.

Will the race tighten up once we get past the conventions? Perhaps. But head-to-head battles aside, Donald Trump has a lot of fences to mend if he hopes to earn the vote of a majority of Americans. Judging from his persona, such an about face seems highly unlikely to me.

Nomination Races Update

February 11, 2016

Since I posted the presidential election overview, the primary season has gotten underway. Iowa and New Hampshire have registered the first real data on the nomination battles. Two conclusions jump out. First, Donald Trump is for real and he must be considered the favorite to win the GOP nomination. And second, Bernie Sanders' candidacy is legit. He may not beat Hillary in the end, but he's definitely not performing as a token opponent.

The Iowa caucuses displayed once again the power of the ground game in the Hawkeye State. Ted Cruz showed his mettle by winning the contest in no small part due to his superior organization. Marco Rubio's expectation-exceeding third-place finish set him on to New Hampshire with momentum. His performance in the last pre-New Hampshire debate derailed that momentum. Time will tell how his campaign will progress moving forward, but he's clearly got some recovering to do. Donald Trump is the man of the hour, though. His 2-1 victory in New Hampshire over John Kasich, whose second place finish is practically meaningless, cements him as the front-runner and gives him, in my view, better than even-money odds at winning the nomination.

For Democrats, Sanders' strong showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire will put Hillary's southern firewall to the test. The nomination is still Hillary's to lose because of her broader appeal to the ethnic factions of the Democratic Party. However, that advantage is being undermined by the parade of negative news cycles against her. It will be interesting to see how aggressively Sanders will push her negatives. This has not yet become a tight race, but it certainly is a race worth watching. And who would have expected that back when Hillary was 40 or 50 points ahead in the polls!

Presidential Election Overview

December 15, 2015

President Barack Obama is in the evening of his eight-year presidency. Next year, it falls again to the people of the United States to choose someone new to lead our nation. After his historic election in 2008, President Obama secured a second term in 2012. Since the U.S. Constitution prohibits our chief executives from serving more than two terms, Obama’s name won’t be on the ballot when Americans head to the polls on November 8, 2016.

The Race for the White House, 2016 edition, does not feature an incumbent. Historically, open presidential elections favor the party not already in power. Only once since the Great Depression has the U.S. elected someone from the same party as an outgoing two-term president. That happened in 1988 when Republican George H.W. Bush won after Ronald Reagan’s landslide re-election victory four years before. Therefore, if history is any guide, Republicans should be well-positioned to reclaim the country’s top office this cycle.

Currently, candidates from both parties are jockeying for electoral advantage as we near the first primary election contest, the Iowa Caucuses, on February 1, 2016. Former First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appears to have locked up the Democratic nomination, while businessman Donald Trump leads the field on the Republican side. The current projections you find here reflect that hypothetical matchup in the general election.

Election Projection is once again tracking the presidential election throughout the primary season, during the national conventions and into the fall when interest will build to a crescendo in advance of Election Day. Each day, I use national and state polls to calculate a projected winner. Be sure to come back often for a quick summary glance at which candidate has the upper hand. Here you’ll find updated colors on EP’s presidential election map and links to all fifty-one presidential races nationwide.