World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Friday, August 14, 2009

When 90% of economists are all saying the recession is over, you are guaranteed that they are wrong.

The “consensus” for consumer confidence was 68.5 with a range of 67.2 to 70.0. It came in at 63.2 for August. Congratulations on being 100% wrong! And once again, those who listen to the government and mainstream are led astray.

Here’s Econoday’s release of Consumer Sentiment:

HighlightsMixed is the description of the current run of economic data, some good and some bad. Today's Reuters/University of Michigan survey falls under bad. The index fell back nearly 3 points at mid-month to 63.2. Despite improvement in jobs and improvement in manufacturing and improvement in housing, weakness is centered in the current conditions component (64.9 vs. 70.5). Expectations, the leading component, also sank (62.1 vs. 63.2). More and more, the consumer sector looks to be a heavy drag on the recovery -- just look back at yesterday's retail sales report. Stocks and commodities weakened in immediate reaction to today's data.

Mixed data? Sorry, there has been NO, as in ZERO good data. What there has been is manipulated data, but nothing good. Manipulation always disconnects from reality and eventually the people know it.

Oh yeah, and if you listened to the "expert's" consensus, here's what it got you: