With those two words, Tyke Dipprey — president of the Plainview Downtown Association — expressed his opinion of the Excel meatpacking plant in Plainview, which Cargill Meat Packing Solutions idled last week.

Dipprey said he feels like the term “idling” was used because it sounds a bit softer than the reality.

“I don’t see Cargill reopening that facility,” Dipprey said.

Whether the plant is idled or closed, workers are losing their jobs and Dipprey said the loss will carve a significant chunk out of Plainview’s economy. He said the community should plan for a future without the plant’s jobs.

“What I see is a trickle-down effect,” Dipprey said.

Contractors and plumbers who serviced the plant will also likely see a reduction in work.

“When you have something with that many moving parts,” Dipprey said, “you always have something breaking down.”

Dipprey predicts up to a 10 percent reduction in business, in addition to a reduction in property rental and transactions at local banks. He said some businesses, such as consumer loan companies, will see more of a loss than others.

Like many in Plainview, Dipprey believes farming is the foundation of the local economy.

“Farming is the cog that runs this whole thing,” Dipprey said. “Our economy is farm-driven.”

However, Dipprey wants to see some economic diversification. Wind energy is one potential the area could explore, he said. Stability, he said, comes from having smaller companies in more industries.

“If I could replace one giant company with 100 smaller companies, I would do that any day,” Dipprey said.

To present a glimpse of Plainview’s future, Dipprey points to Lubbock’s past.

“It is going to hurt,” Dipprey said. “But, I remember when Reese left Lubbock.”

In the late 1990s, Reese Air Force Base — which was based in Lubbock — shut down. Dipprey said everyone thought the “sky was going to fall.” But, he said, Lubbock is now bigger and better than before.

“Plainview is a great community that has a lot of civic organizations,” Dipprey said.

He should know. In addition to being president of the Plainview Downtown Association, Dipprey is vice president of the Wayland Alumni Board and also serves on the Plainview Chamber of Commerce board, the Main Street board and The Plainview Visitors and Convention board.

“This is not going to be a death blow,” Dipprey said. “We will recover. We are a strong town and there are a lot of people who want Plainview to succeed.”

The city of Plainview’s motto is “explore the opportunities.”

“I think you have the opportunity to do whatever you want to do in this town,” Dipprey said.

Charles Starnes, associate dean for the school of economics at Wayland Baptist University, agreed it is possible — but unlikely — the plant could open.

“The longer it is closed down the less likely it becomes,” Starnes said. “All of Plainview’s approach and planning has to assume the plant won’t re-open.”

The fact it takes three to five years, according to Starnes, to rebuild cattle herds to the point of production is a large hurdle. Others have said it could take five to seven years.

However, Starnes praised the community of Plainview in its reaction to the idling.

“I’ve seen other cities who suffered economic blows, who pulled the covers over their heads and said, ‘Woe is us,’ ” Starnes said. “But Plainview kicks the covers off the bed and says, ‘What’s next?’ ”

To put the loss into perspective, Starnes said the plant was responsible for about $100 million of the county’s estimated $1 trillion economy. The loss, he said, won’t be a cliff in the economy but more like a slowly descending glider path. The slow decline is partially due to workers who still have pay coming to them, and many will receive unemployment benefits.

Another way to look at the numbers is that, in December, Plainview had an unemployment rate of 5.4 percent. If all the workers stayed in town and didn’t get jobs, the unemployment rate would triple to 15 percent.

Starnes was clear — this scenario will not happen.

“What we will see over time is a lowering of the population, a lowering of the workforce and a lowering of income produced in this county,” Starnes said.

Like Dipprey, Starnes said the job losses will mean fewer people shopping, dining out or buying gas in Plainview.

He agreed with Dipprey about the importance of farming, but said more is needed for the county to grow.

“If we want growth we need to find something else we can export,” Starnes said. “Agriculture will not produce growth — just stability.”

Though drought has hurt farmers in the region, the economy has been stable in Plainview. One reason, Starnes explained, is a growing number of people living on retirement and pension funds. The number of people in this category has increased from 16 to 25 percent.

There are some things Starnes is certain about the future. As a joke, he told friends Feb. 1 is not the end of the Mayan calendar for Plainview.

“We’re not the first town that has lost a major employer,” Starnes said. “It is not the end of the earth.”

And some things he can’t predict.

“Will Plainview’s economy ever be like it was?” Starnes said. “I don’t know; it could be better.”

Sun Loan Company manager Tiffany Amador said business hasn’t slowed yet. She has seen people coming in to pay off their loans. The business is cyclical, she said.

“People pay off loans and come back,” Amador said. “This time I don’t know if they will come back.”

Amador estimates 40 percent of her customers are from the Excel plant. Presently, her office has a staff of five people, but if business slows, that staff may shrink to three.

However, she is confident closing isn’t a concern in the near future and believes the community will pull through the loss.

“I think we’re going to be OK,” Amador said, “if everyone has faith.”

Amador is from Tulia, but has lived in Plainview for 15 years.

“Everyone is like one big happy family,” Amador said. “We are going to rise from this.”

After the announcement last month, Amador said many of her customers arrived upset about the job losses. She told her staff to be sensitive and not talk down to them.

“We try and uplift spirits and let people know everything will be OK,” Amador said. “If they need anything we are here for them.”

One customer, Thomas Muller, hasn’t found a new job locally. He was offered a job in Alabama, but said moving would be very difficult.

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"To put the loss into perspective, Starnes said the plant was responsible for about $100 million of the county’s estimated $1 trillion economy"
What couild possibly be the value of the greater Houston area, if this were true of Plainview - $4 quadrillion?