The odds aren’t good. The Mercury’s pumped four positive real estate stories over the past week. With the latest came the revelation (from the most reliable REIT prez, Adrian Kelly) that first home buyers are the current market bright spot. Increasing as a percentage apparently. And you know the way this works - sales fall but one segment maintains its position, thus increases its percentage. Voila, they’re on a comeback! They’re not, check the ABS.

The Examiner managed to cut the fairy floss, but offered the following from Mr Kelly…

Institute president Adrian Kelly said low interest rates and affordable housing stock should be prompting people to invest in real estate, but without the economic confidence or job security people were reluctant to take the plunge.

Why would people be reluctant to invest in Tasmanian housing? Apart from the obvious economic woe and inevitable prospect of more to come, there’s the fact Tasmanian full-time incomes increased by 55% over the ten years from 2002 to 2012, while the average mortgage bloated by 165% for first home buyers and 141% for the rest.

Then there’s the hair whitening prospect of following anything Adrian Kelly says about real estate…