Reactions To And Effects Of The Chris Davis Deal

Here are a few early notes and takes on slugger Chris Davis’ new $161MM deal with the Orioles:

With Davis back in the fold, the Orioles need to address their rotation, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. The O’s have had contact with Yovani Gallardo, but one sticking point there could be the qualifying offer — the Orioles would have had eight of the top 100 picks in the draft had Davis and Matt Wieters departed, but those players’ returns will reduce their total to six. That number would further drop if they were to sign Gallardo.

Before signing Davis, the Orioles had been in talks with Yoenis Cespedes, but Cespedes was seeking even more money than the $161MM Davis got from the O’s, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. The Orioles reportedly made an offer to Cespedes in the $90MM range.

The Davis deal could be “Scott Boras’ most impressive victory over reason yet,” FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. There was a limited market for first basemen and a number of strong hitters left on the market, and Davis’ profile as a slugging, whiff-prone first baseman about to head into his thirties is a very risky one. Also, Davis alone likely won’t push the Orioles into the playoffs next season, and the Orioles don’t seem well positioned for the next few seasons, when they’re likely to reap the most value from his contract.

Keith Law of ESPN’s take (Insider-only) is somewhat similar to Cameron’s — Law notes that it seems unlikely that the strikeout-prone Davis will continue to produce at 2015 levels, and adds that few teams who might have been able to spend heavily on Davis had the hole at first base the Orioles did. Law also provides his take on the Royals’ deal with Ian Kennedy, which he also isn’t a fan of, given Kennedy homer-allowing tendencies and his underwhelming overall track record.

I get the sense nobody was going to give Davis a particularly impressive contract. There’s been very little talk of serious interest in him at the price he was asking. I don’t see where Boras would have much leverage at all here, but obviously the Orioles bought what he was selling.

I agree it seems the Orioles overpaid, especially when it doesn’t seem they were bidding against anyone else. So, I’m really surprised to see them even pay $150m, much less the additional sum they paid. Boros wins again.

I don’t have an ESPN insider account so I can’t read Law’s article, so I am posting this hoping to have the Kennedy being homer prone reference explained a little more. I see it as beneficial that he is going to the Royals park as it suppresses HR, I think it’s pretty reasonable for Royals to expect a lot of those long flies to now wind up in the glove of one of their excellent OF. And therefore an improved pitching line. I think the deal is reasonable.

Kennedy has to face an extra, actual hitter now too. The deal is one of the worst of the year, if not the worst. Dusty Baker, the Shelby Miller trade and Ian Kennedy getting 70 mill are the worst 3 of the offseason, by far.

Petco moved in and lowered fences 2-3 years ago. Last year it actually was ranked 10th best ballpark favoring hitters for HR. You can’t give Petco credit for effects of past dimensions. It’s a lot easier to hit HR there now. By contrast Kaufman ranked 25th. Also people talk about the DH like the opposite is facing a pitcher for 9 innings. I would guess on average an SP gets 2 AB a game before its pinch hitters (who are also put in with platoon benefits in mind). I think park factors and defense behind you are much more important than facing a DH vs pitcher for maybe 2 AB per start.

What I don’t understand is why you pay a guy 161 million when you could get a poor mans version at the same time for 2.5 million in Chris Carter. Don’t get me wrong… Davis is better and I understand that, but is he 158 million dollars better? Especially when you have pitching problems? Doesn’t make sense to me…

I think Cespedes will end up reaching a figure close to the Heyward’s one (also, with the opt-out clause). My guess for the destination is the Cardinals, but there are other strong possibilities (Nats, for example).

He’s not going to get anywhere near JH deal. He be lucky to get 4 years 88 million. Or 3 years 68 million. N the Cards are NOT signing him. They already said they are done and NOT spending anymore big money. If they sign someone I put my money heavy on Fowler. He end up w Nash watch. Upton will go to Tigers. If St L signs no one Flower will go to the W Sox.

I love all of these negative posts here from people who have no idea what the terms of the deal are! LOL
Let me break it down for you. The Orioles are on the hook for $17 million per season for all 7 playing years. They then owe Davis $3.5 mil each year from 2022-2031 and then $1.4 mil each year from 2032-2036. If they were to make even a low interest rate, safe investment with just half of the deferred $42 mil it will more than cover the remaining years after his 7 playing years are up.
So the Orioles just signed the guy who has hit the most HRs in baseball over the past 3 seasons for a $17 mil per year impact on team payroll. By 2018 $17 mil per season will, look like chump change for a premier player, and by the last two seasons of his deal an average everyday player will be making that much!

Micg no disrespect or hating here. But what the Os did was buy a Ferarri when they don’t have a garage to park it in. I’m not saying it is a bad deal. Or he not worth it. But bad choice. Yeah maybe. They had Davis by the balls esp when they got serious about Cep. We really don’t know who went to who first. If I’m a betting man SB said you better get off ur ass and do something cause your going to lose money Big Time. N ur market is slim. This best shot n their no more money to get from n e one. Best thing the Os did was go public about Cep n force SB hand. Probably a first for him. But their opps n club opt so their stuck w him n that big contact. That they won’t dump later. He good great I’m happy for the Os. But I see at will CD alone get us a title for 161 mil. Probably not. As a matter of fact NO. So if u have 170 mil to spend why not break it up in pieces n get several players to get you at least into the post season. CD not getting the Os into post season. So ur still 3rd place team with or without him. Buy the Garage nice truck n lower sports car maybe motorcycle. Not a Ferarri w no Garage. That’s y the Cubs didn’t do any of the top 4 pitchers. Just my thought.

Fair enough but let me correct a few things.
First we have no clue what any of the offers were other than rumors, which in the free agent season are seldom anywhere near accurate. I heard earlier rumors that they had offered $161m/7 and $168m/7 so all these folks crying that they increased the earlier “rumored” offer have no clue if that is true or not.

Next, you are missing the whole point of my post. They are not ponying up $161m for the 7 years Davis.signed for. They are spending $119m during that time frame and the rest is all deferred interest free.
These players will all make more than him this year”
Cano ($24M)
Mauer ($23M)
Reyes ($22M)
Kemp ($21.75M)
Werth ($21M)
Choo ($21M)
Wright ($20M)
Braun ($20M)
Pence ($18.5M)
V. Martinez ($18M)
How many of them are capable of 50 HRs and 120 RBIs?
And I intentionally left out pitchers, the big spending teams, (Yanks, Bosox, Dodgers) and the insane contracts like Howard, Pujols, and Fielder, as well as those of the elite class, (Tulo, Cabrera….), .

So I would call it a gross exaggeration to say they are paying a Ferarri price for his services. Lexus is more like it, and after the 2018 free agent class hits the market salaries will go through the roof and $17M will be a very average salary.

As for breaking it up into pieces, they owe Davis $17M this season, not $170 million so his contract should have very little impact on what they spend in building the 2016 team. I have heard many O’s fans say things like, We should offer Cespedes or Upton $20M on a one year deal. Well guess what, we just got last years top HR hitter for $17M.
As for Davis “alone” not being able to bring us a title well of course not, but the O’s have a very nice core of surrounding pieces and I am certain they are not done (thanks to how this deal is structured), and YES a Davis who hits like he did last season can make a HUGE impact on that outcome!

I understand your post micg. Don’t get me wrong I didn’t mean his price was a Ferrari. I compared him to a Ferrari – Is the deal good. It’s good as long as he can produce 30 + hrs n 100+ RBI s – is contract good as far as money. 100% yes. Deferred back loaded opts n club options in n e contract r good. Their is no opts but the deferred makes up for it. He ranked #4 on FA list. Anyone who can pop 30+ hr n 100 RBI is worth 161 mil esp back loaded or deferred. Wait till Bryant has to resign that be peanuts. So yes as far as Os the contract good. 17 mil a steal. Just like Heyward. 23 mil a steal. Zim is only a million under Heyward he was ranked what as FA. So 17 mil a year is a steal. People look at the big number not the year. As teams do. That the budget and important # what are we paying a year. With Hayward and he opts after 3 or 4,years it’s a blessing. We can make that up in 2018 and save money. Cubs fan here. So yes great signing as far as money. Perfect if he nails 35 hr or more. My point was if the Os are to compete against NY Bost n Toronto and need a lot than a bat then go a bit cheaper n save money get a pitcher or a few players that fill holes n not blow the wad on one guy. Can Cep or Upton hit 40 50 hrs no but they can hit enough to help the team win n the Os can have other players they can sign to help them to. As the Cubs passed on Price to land 3 players. Price n there no Zorb Hayward or Lackey. So my point. Deal good no doubt. But for 161 mill they could have bought a few toys not just the Ferrari.

All very good points, and I am enjoying this back and forth. So thanks!

However, as I said it will be 2036 before the final installment on that 161 becomes due, and for this season they owe Davis $17M Total! So it in no way interferes with them making the needed additions this year. Any team that wishes to win would be crazy to pass on a one year deal of $17M for what Davis brings to the team. The only question mark is the end years on CDs deal and even if he bombs after 4 years say the O’s should have gotten their monies worth.
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One final word and I have to run but I will be writing more later about Heyward if you are interested.

The Orioles have a very good team and are good enough to win it all this year now! If you look at their record over the past 3 seasons they have been one of the tops in the AL. They were on course to be in the playoffs last year except for one month after the break when they were horrible. The pitching failed them and yes they lost Chen, but he is no ace and they have several young pitchers that may put up better numbers than Chen this year, and the ones that had bad seasons last year should be back to their much more productive selves this season. I’m certain they will add at least one more good arm most likely through trade!

Just curious, but what do you see them as lacking in order to be a contender right now?