Gormley: Why latest Iranian protests likely to fail

If whatever occurred in the streets of Iran last week had revolutionary ambitions, it was always likely to fail.

This is not the fault of courageous, principled Iranians. Statistics are cold comfort but any Iranian revolution is likely to fail because most revolutions do. Some scholars say resistance movements succeed only 26 to 53 per cent of the time.

But scholars also say resistance movements can improve their odds. In Revolutions and Revolutionary Movements, James DeFronzo, a University of Connecticut sociologist, identifies five factors that clarify the chances of success.

• Mass discontent: If a resistance is to be successful it should enjoy popular support; the regime should enjoy decidedly less. Often, anger toward the regime is about the economy. Sometimes people once had a higher standard of living and therefore expect it now; sometimes they simply come to believe they are owed it. When their concerns are suppressed violently, the regime’s support may decline even more.

In Iran, the protests are said to have started over the price of eggs, a symbol for several other economic problems, compounded by political discontent towards the dictatorship. Protests have attracted people from classes that may normally support the regime, which is a good sign for the resistance; however, the visibility of staged pro-government rallies was a major symbolic victory against it.

• Divided elites: When elites are divided, leadership for the resistance may be found among them. They can tell a compelling story about how the problems of the country are problems caused by the regime, giving the resistance a sense of purpose, wealth, organization and expertise.

As expert on revolutions Simon Sharma has said of European revolutions, “Professors, students, professional writers had no trouble at all in constituting themselves as provisional revolutionary committees, committees for the dawn of democracy, committees against despotism.” The fact that members of the academy in Iran are involved in the resistance bodes well for it.

• Unified motivations: If groups are disparate, however, and can’t agree on a common cause and ideology, a revolution can be derailed. Revolutions require focus.

“It’s one thing to bring hundreds of thousands onto the streets. It’s another to translate that into effective, tangible political action,” Brookings foreign policy expert Shadi Hamid has said of protests in Egypt.

So far, common cause seems to be lacking in Iran. Iran faces many challenges: The fact that it is ruled by a repressive regime may be the most fundamental of these, but other grievances compete for attention.

• Lost legitimacy and armed forces loyalty: As long as the regime maintains control over the country’s armed forces and police, it can suppress the resistance with violence. To lose control of brute force is to lose control of the streets. For a resistance to succeed, it may need to convince powerful people in these spheres that the regime is corrupt, immoral or incompetent.

In Iran, 21 people have died and the army chief has pledged help to police in putting down any more protests.

• Supportive international community: If other countries attack revolutionaries on a dictator’s behalf, a resistance has a lower chance of success. There has been some question as to whether Donald Trump expressing support could help or hinder. One Canadian Liberal MP seemed nearly to commit light sabotage of the resistance when he referred to the theocratic regime as an “elected government.”

The resistance in Iran doesn’t face impossible odds. But it doesn’t have a terribly high chance of success, for no resistance does. That only makes its members all the more courageous.