Monday, October 27, 2014

Below Maryland Juice provides a roundup of news and analyses of key races of interest to politicos:

JUICE #1: DUELING POLLS IN THE RACE BETWEEN ANTHONY BROWN VS. LARRY HOGAN - Maryland's top race this cycle is undoubtedly the gubernatorial match-up between Lt. Governor Anthony Brown and former Ehrlich-administration official Larry Hogan. Here is a quick round-up of recent polls in the race. Note: the Gonzalez poll below was commissioned by supporters of Larry Hogan:

JUICE #2: MARYLAND JUICE EARLY VOTE TURNOUT ANALYSIS // WHO'S BEEN VOTING? - Below Maryland Juice takes a deep dive into early vote turnout data by party, gender, and county --and we also give breakdowns in all Montgomery County state races, a few swing districts and in key Maryland counties. Early voting is currently underway in Maryland, as voters can cast early ballots until Thursday, October 30, 2014. Polls are open from 10:00 am to 8:00 pm at early vote centers across the state. Who has been voting early in the Free State? Below you can see some of our findings from turnout data for the first three days of early voting (Thursday, Friday & Saturday).

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT BY COUNTY & PARTY: Below we take a look at early vote turnout by raw party advantage and by county turnout. Not surprisingly, Democrats are turning out at an almost 2-1 rate over Republicans, reflecting their statewide registration advantage. As a result, the top raw turnout counties are not surprising (Baltimore, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Montgomery, etc). But in terms of the % of eligible voters casting ballots, Montgomery County is near the bottom of the state, along with Baltimore City. Though you cannot assume all Democrats will vote for Brown and all Republicans will vote for Hogan, the data reflect mixed news for Democrats. The party can try and coast on its registration advantage, but the low turnout %'s in heavy Democratic counties should be seen as a call to arms. Montgomery County
is seriously lagging in % turnout (again, probably owing to the fact
that the large numbers of new MoCo voters who registered over the last
few years are not turning out at the polls):

EARLY VOTE BY GENDER & PARTY: Below we take a look at the first three days of early vote turnout by gender and party. Statewide, women are turning out in larger numbers than men, a trend which clearly benefits Democrats. Women make up almost 60% of the Democrats early voting electorate, while men are a majority of Republican and Independent early vote turnout:

2014 Early Vote Turnout by Gender (First 3 Days):

Women = 54,759

Men = 46,778

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Democrats by Gender = 62,765:

Democrats Female = 36,787 (58.6%)

Democrats Male = 25,967 (41.1%)

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Republicans by Gender = 29,533

Republicans Female = 14,078 (47.7%)

Republicans Male = 15,447 (52.3%)

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Independents by Gender = 8,275

Independents Female = 3,522 (42.6%)

Independents Male = 4,747 (57.4%)

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT BY AGE AND PARTY: Below we take a look at the first three days of early vote turnout, sorted by age and party. The largest block of early voters is age 65+, with almost equal numbers of early voters from the large 45-64 demographic. In every age category, Democrats are turning out in larger numbers than Republicans. But again, you cannot assume that voters are going to vote party-line:

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 18-24 = 2,363

Democrats 18-24 = 1,249

Republicans 18-24 = 736

Independents 18-24 = 349

Libertarians 18-24 = 15

Greens 18-24 = 4

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 25-44 = 10,775

Democrats 25-44 = 6,170

Republicans 25-44 = 2,992

Independents 25-44 = 1,459

Libertarians 25-44 = 64

Greens 25-44 = 23

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 45-64 = 43,605

Democrats 45-64 = 26,465

Republicans 45-64 = 13,057

Independents 45-64 = 3,668

Libertarians 45-64 = 75

Greens 25-44 = 55

2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 65+ = 44,794

Democrats 65+ = 28,881

Republicans 65+ = 12,748

Independents 65+ = 2,799

Libertarians 65+ = 36

Greens 65+ = 14

EARLY VOTE BY PARTY IN THE TOP 8 TURNOUT COUNTIES: Below we take a look at early vote turnout in the top 8 highest turnout counties. In 7 of 8 of these counties, Democrats are turning out in much higher numbers than Republicans. In Harford County, Republicans have a slight edge of roughly 300 votes over the Democrats. Though you can't quite assume that all Democrats will vote for their County Executive candidates, the county-level turnout may be reassuring news for Democrats in some of the competitive County Exec races. Some of the turnout numbers are tight enough to warrant extra energy from Dems:

Anne Arundel Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 6,169

Republicans = 5,282

Independents = 1,433

Baltimore City Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 7,636

Republicans = 417

Independents = 326

Baltimore County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 11,259

Republicans = 4,334

Independents = 1,090

Frederick County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 1,698

Republicans = 1,538

Independents = 460

Harford County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Republicans = 2,967

Democrats = 2,657

Independents = 602

Howard County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 4,167

Republicans = 2,035

Independents = 775

Montgomery County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 7,909

Republicans = 1,962

Independents = 1,295

Prince George's County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):

Democrats = 12,443

Republicans = 878

Independents = 507

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY DELEGATE RACES: In all 8 of Montgomery County's House of Delegate Districts, Democrats are turning out in far greater numbers than Republicans. My home District 20 has the highest Democratic turnout in MoCo, and here Independents are tied with Republicans for turnout. Meanwhile District 14 has the highest overall turnout (counting all parties):

Maryland House District 14 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,953 Total Votes

Democrats = 1,258

Republicans = 472

Independents = 317

Libertarians = 3

Greens = 0

Maryland House District 15 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,161 Total Votes

Democrats = 709

Republicans = 275

Independents = 163

Libertarians = 5

Greens = 1

Maryland House District 16 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,092 Total Votes

Democrats = 796

Republicans = 171

Independents = 119

Libertarians = 2

Greens = 0

Maryland House District 17 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,242 Total Votes

Democrats = 835

Republicans = 234

Independents = 161

Libertarians = 2

Greens = 2

Maryland House District 18 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,335 Total Votes

Democrats = 999

Republicans = 182

Independents = 136

Greens = 6

Libertarians = 0

Maryland House District 19 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,676 Total Votes

Democrats = 1,220

Republicans = 257

Independents = 183

Greens = 4

Libertarians = 3

Maryland House District 20 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,741 Total Votes

Democrats = 1,425

Republicans = 148

Independents = 148

Greens = 7

Libertarians = 3

Maryland House District 39 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,070 Total Votes

Democrats = 666

Republicans = 222

Independents = 170

Libertarians = 3

Greens = 1

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT IN A FEW SWING RACES: Below we provide early vote turnout figures and party breakdowns in a few key races on the November ballot. Democratic turnout from the first three days of early voting looks okay across the board, but there are a couple districts where the party needs to turn up the heat!

Senate District 3 Early Vote Turnout by Party (Ron Young vs. Corey Stottlemyer)

Democrats = 1,091

Republicans = 719

Independents = 246

Senate District 42 Early Vote Turnout by Party (Jim Brochin vs. Tim Robinson)

Democrats = 1,062

Republicans = 683

Independents = 153

Delegate District 9B Early Vote Turnout by Party (Tom Coale vs. Bob Flanagan)

JUICE #3: NATIONAL PARTIES NOW SPENDING IN MARYLAND // PLUS: OBAMA, CHRIS CHRISTIE & THE CLINTONS CAMPAIGN IN MD - As we head into the homestretch for Maryland's gubernatorial race, the national Democrats & Republicans are engaging in a proxy battle in the Free State. Here are a few signs of activity from national politicians:

HILLARY CLINTON TO RALLY FOR ANTHONY BROWN THIS THURSDAY: So far Lt. Governor Anthony Brown's campaign has brought President Obama and former President Bill Clinton onto the campaign trail in Maryland. This Thursday, they are continuing the proxy battle with a rally with Hillary Clinton (press release excerpt below). You can RSVP at: http://www.anthonybrown.com/Oct30

This event is free – supporters will be admitted on a first come, first served basis. Space is limited and supporters must RSVP at www.anthonybrown.com/Oct30, or pick up tickets at a Democratic office listed here: www.anthonybrown.com/offices.

What: Early Vote event – Final push before polls close at 8 p.m. (Nearest Early Vote location is the College Park Community Center at 5051 Pierce Avenue, College Park, MD)

When: Thursday, October 30th, Doors open to the public at 2:45 pm

Where: University of Maryland College Park, Ritchie Coliseum, 4533 Rossborough Lane, College

Hillary Clinton's visit comes on the heels of an Anthony Brown rally with President Obama (see TV news coverage) and a fundraiser with President Bill Clinton (see TV ad w/ Bill Clinton). Meanwhile, Larry Hogan has enlisted New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (see TV coverage) to campaign for him in the Free State.

NATIONAL PARTY TV AD WARS: Meanwhile, the Democratic Governor's Association (aka DGA) has now
spent at least $1.15 million in deep Blue Maryland to shore up the Brown
campaign. The Washington Post reported on the ad buys (excerpt below):

WASHINGTON POST:
The DGA previously spent about $750,000 on three weeks of ads in the
Baltimore market that attack Hogan’s record on social issues, including
his past opposition to abortion rights.... The latest DGA outlay in the
heavily Democratic state will keep ads on the air on Baltimore stations
through mid-October. The purchase appears to be roughly $400,000, based
on publicly available records and people familiar with the buy....

BALTIMORE SUN: The RGA's intervention in the race in deep-blue Maryland reflects a growing hope in GOP circles that Hogan can score an upset despite the state's 2-1 Democratic registration advantage. The RGA's chairman, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, campaigned and raised funds for Hogan this week on his second visit to Maryland on Hogan's behalf. lRelated Distortions fly in race for governor POLITICS Distortions fly in race for governor SEE ALL RELATED 8 According to filings with the Federal Communication Commission, the RGA will spend $166,515 to advertise on WJZ-TV. The ad the group released Thursday is a 30-second spot rattling off taxes, fares and other charges that have gone up under Brown and Gov. Martin O'Malley....

JUICE #4: SENATORS RASKIN & ZIRKIN BATTLING FOR CHAIR OF JUDICIAL PROCEEDINGS COMMITTEE
- One of the non-election stories politicos are currently following is the battle between State Senators Jamie Raskin & Bobby Zirkin for Chair of the Judicial Proceedings Committee. After all, not all of
the hot races this year are electoral battles -- some of them relate to
the assignment of leadership posts. This November, State Senator Brian
Frosh is all but certain to be elected Maryland's next Attorney General,
but Frosh also chairs the Senate's Judicial Proceedings Committee (aka
JPR). With his looming departure from that post, Senate President Mike Miller will soon have to choose a replacement. Center Maryland columnist Josh Kurtz recently highlighted the basics of the JPR battle (excerpt below):

JOSH KURTZ VIA CENTER MARYLAND:
At first glance – and maybe even at second and third glance – it’s a
no-brainer: A Harvard-educated constitutional scholar vs. a guy who
advertises his ability to win dog bite cases prominently on his law firm
website. Put another way, it’s a choice between a lawyer who wrote a
best-selling book about the Supreme Court and a lawmaker who introduced a
bill that would have prevented the wife of an Annapolis lobbyist from
serving on the Baltimore County school board because the lawmaker didn’t
like a natural gas pipeline project in his neighborhood that the
lobbyist’s firm was promoting....

By all accounts, the
battle is between Montgomery County Sen. Jamie Raskin (D), an American
University law professor and constitutional scholar, and Baltimore
County Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D), the trial lawyer and pipeline foe. But
[Senate President Mike] Miller’s decision isn’t as easy as one might
expect given the two contenders’ credentials, because this is not an
academic exercise – and the chairmanship of JPR is anything but an
academic position. In fact, it’s become a major dilemma for Miller, the
longest-serving Senate president on Planet Earth who once held the JPR
gavel himself....

WILL MOCO & LIBERALS HAVE A ROLE IN THE STATE SENATE?
- But there is much more to the JPR battle than just the resumes of
Senators Raskin & Zirkin. The decision has much to do with the
trajectory of the chamber, and Montgomery County's role in the future of
the State Senate. With the exit of Senator Brian Frosh and the
retirement of former Majority Leader Rob Garagiola, Montgomery County
may soon be without any Senator in a senior leadership position in the state's
upper chamber.

Moreover, with the ever-increasing
liberal bent to Maryland's Democratic electorate, the JPR battle
foreshadows whether progressives in the State Senate will be given a
correspondingly larger voice in the body. On this point, there are some similarities and some differences in voting record between Raskin & Zirkin. Most notably, Zirkin voted against
the Dream Act while Raskin supported the bill. The two Senators also
disagree on whether landlords should be able to discriminate against
tenants based on the form of payment for rent (eg: housing vouchers for
veterans and low income residents). Raskin opposes discrimination
against form of payment, while Zirkin supports it.

That
being said, both Senators voted for marriage equality and both support
marijuana legalization. Both Senators also voted against corporate
welfare for Lockheed Martin, and Zirkin ultimately joined Raskin in
supporting death penalty repeal and transgender non-discrimination. In
any case, we will likely not know how this story plays out until after
the General Election is concluded.

JUICE #5: LOW PROFILE BALLOT QUESTIONS FACING VOTERS IN NOVEMBER // TRANSPORTATION LOCK BOX, COUNTY EXEC SPECIAL ELECTIONS & MORE - In
addition to the state and county races on the ballot this year, there
are some fairly interesting (albeit low-profile) ballot questions facing
voters. We discuss the two statewide ballot questions and a Montgomery
County-specific ballot question below:

QUESTION 1: SHOULD MARYLAND LOCK-BOX ITS TRANSPORTATION FUNDS?
- This ballot question asks voters whether state lawmakers should be
prohibited from spending transportation dollars on non-transportation
budget items. The measure was placed on the ballot by the General
Assembly as part of the gas tax negotiations during the last legislative
session. The lockbox on the transportation trust fund dollars could be
overturned through at 60% vote of the legislature during a fiscal
emergency. A vote "for" Question 1, is a vote for the lockbox and is recommended by a diverse range of groups
including the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee,
Progressive Neighbors, The Baltimore Sun, The Gazette, various Chambers
of Commerce, the carpenters union and supporters of the Red Line, Purple
Line and CCT.

QUESTION 2: SHOULD MARYLAND ALLOW COUNTIES TO FILL COUNTY EXEC VACANCIES THROUGH SPECIAL ELECTIONS? -
This ballot question asks voters whether Maryland should authorize
counties to fill vacancies in the office of County Executive through
special elections instead of appointments. In Montgomery County, for
example, a County Exec vacancy would currently be filled through a vote
of five members of the County Council. A vote "for" Question 2 is a vote
to allow counties to use special elections and is recommended by the
Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee and Progressive
Neighbors.

MOCO QUESTION A: SHOULD MOCO REQUIRE COUNCILMEMBERS TO LIVE IN THEIR DISTRICT AT THE TIME OF A PRIMARY, GENERAL & VACANCY?
- This ballot question asks voters in Montgomery County whether
candidates for District-based County Council seats must reside in their
district at the time of a Primary Election and General Election or at
the time a vacancy occurs. A vote "for" Question A is a vote to require
residency and is recommended by the Montgomery County Democratic Central
Committee and Progressive Neighbors.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY COUNCIL:
The Montgomery County Council today unanimously enacted Bill 16-14,
which will allow candidates for County Council and County Executive to
qualify for partial public financing for their campaigns. This is the
first measure of its type for County elective offices in the Washington
Region and in the State of Maryland.... The bill would establish a
Public Election Fund. To qualify for public financing, a candidate would
have to:

File a Notice of Intent prior to collecting qualifying contributions

Establish a publicly funded campaign account

Only accept contributions from an individual of between $5 and $150

Refuse to accept a contribution from any group or organization,
including a political action committee, a corporation, a labor
organization or a State or local central action committee of a political
party

Collect a qualifying number of contributions from County residents:
500 for County Executive candidates, 250 for at-large Council candidates
and 125 for district Council candidates

Meet qualifying dollar thresholds of $40,000 for County Executive,
$20,000 for at-large Councilmember and $10,000 for district
CouncilmemberLimits are indexed to inflation

Only contributions from County residents are eligible for matching funds

The plan provides strong
incentives for candidates to seek out many small individual
contributors. Matching public dollars for County Executive candidates
would be $6 for each dollar of the first $50 of a qualifying
contribution received from a County resident, $4 for each dollar for the
second $50 and $2 for each remaining dollar received up to the maximum
contribution. Matching dollars for County Council candidates would be $4
for each dollar of the first $50 received from a County resident, $3
for each dollar for the second $50 and $2 for each remaining dollar
received up to the maximum contribution.

The maximum
limit on public funds per candidate for either the primary election or
the general election will be $750,000 for a County Executive candidate,
$250,000 for a Council at-large candidate and $125,000 for a district
Council candidate. Matching dollars would not be distributed for
self/spouse contributions or to candidates running unopposed.

Advocates
are hopeful that the "clean elections" push will soon spread to other
states and hopefully be adopted for state elections in coming years.

Former Montgomery County Planning Board Chair Gus Bauman provided Maryland Juice the following guest post on the transportation infrastructure race between Maryland and Virginia. His comments below were sent in two batches to County officials (once in 2009 and later in 2014). You can read his thoughts on the challenges facing Maryland below, triggered by the opening of the Northern Virginia WMATA Silver Line this past July:

GUS BAUMAN (CIRCA 2014): To the County Executive, Council Members, Planning Board Members: Tomorrow, July 26, 2014, at high noon, Montgomery County’s future will, in my judgment, have reached a tipping point. The Silver Line’s first phase to Tysons and Reston opens; five new Metro stations in prime areas of Fairfax County will change everything. Then it’s on to Dulles Airport.

Recently, DC opened a new Metro station at NoMa. Development is exploding there. Alexandria, for its part, is nailing down the location of its new Metro station at the growing urban center of Potomac Yard. In short, as I see it, the economic future of our region is increasingly concentrating along the Blue and Orange and now Silver Lines. The cultural vibrancy of the DC area is rapidly consolidating around places like U St., 14th St., Ballston, Clarendon. Tysons and Potomac Yard will invariably follow.

We must be candid with ourselves. Except for Silver Spring, Montgomery County has no place today that can realistically compete for the attentions and diverse demands of the all-important Uber Generation. I sent off a warning, called A Looming Challenge, about all this 4.5 years ago (see the attachment). We are now 4.5 years closer to our mutual future.

Gus Bauman's 2014 comments are a follow-up to the following letter (aka attachment) he sent county officials in 2009:

GUS BAUMAN (CIRCA 2009): Dear County Executive Leggett, County Council President Floreen and Council Members, Planning Board Chairman Hanson and Planning Board Members; In recent days, I have had the opportunity to tour several major transportation projects being built in the DC region and to review materials related to the forthcoming impacts of those projects. I have come to the conviction that the cumulative impacts of these projects are about to transform profoundly how people will view the DC region and, by extension, Montgomery County's place in it. Because of the geographic positioning of these projects and the singular timing of their arrival, how Montgomery County views its future may well need reassessment.

Consider the following.

Immediately to Montgomery County's west, in Fairfax County, Metrorail's Silver Line is well under construction. In 2013, a little over three years from now, four stations will open in Tysons Corner alone. That is akin to the Gallery Place, Metro Center, Farragut North, and Dupont Circle Red Line stations all opening at once. Simultaneously, the Capital Beltway HOT lanes are well under construction along a 14 mile corridor, centered on Tysons Corner, in northern Virginia. They are scheduled to open in 2012. Tysons Corner is then poised to commence massive redevelopment of its 3,200 acres.

To provide some sense of equivalent comparisons, downtown Bethesda covers 400 acres. The Life Sciences Center encompasses 900 acres. Immediately to Montgomery County's east, in Prince George's County, sits the future city of Konterra. It is ready to begin development once the Intercounty Connector (MD 200) interchanges with I-95. That will occur in 2012. Konterra covers 2,200 acres. Its ultimate scale will be enormous. Thus, just when we will likely have emerged from the Great Recession, the landscape we have been used to for so long will be radically changing on Montgomery County's western and eastern borders. Even before this coming upheaval in the region, looking at just one indicator of the long-current status quo should give one pause in Montgomery County. Already, of the 20 busiest Metrorail stations, fully 18 are in DC, Arlington County, and Fairfax County. Shady Grove is the 14th busiest and Silver Spring the 15th (Bethesda is the 21st). Once the Silver Line starts service in 2013 (and later continues westward to Dulles Airport), a more pronounced shift of the region's economic resources away from Montgomery County can reasonably be expected if current assumptions are not reexamined. And Konterra will likewise be pulling significant economic resources eastward.

Nothing I have stated is to begrudge our neighbors the creative initiatives they have embarked upon. It is all to their credit. But these huge initiatives, centered on imminent alterations to the region's transportation network west and east of Montgomery County, will likely shift the dynamic of growth, and life, within the County as well as the region. Of course, Montgomery County is not standing still. It also stands to gain from MD 200's interchange with I-270 as well as the County's plans for the I-270/MD 355 corridor.

Yet, I would respectfully suggest that the County's future-thinking needs to focus more on Montgomery's realworld position in a highly competitive region about to change dramatically on our borders. The looming challenge now posed by what is just around the corner should not be permitted to sap Montgomery County's viability within a strong region.

MD Juice News Feed:

This blog predates my campaign committee and is substantially unrelated to electioneering, but just in case, you can consider certain posts "By Authority: Friends of David Moon. Chair: Marlana Valdez. Treasurer: Usman Ahmed."