Obama, Romney rematch could set TV ratings records

By Kyle Campbell

Published 8:11 pm, Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Mitt Romney's strong showing and President Barack Obama's lackluster performance in their first 2012 campaign debate have piqued public interest in the highly anticipated rematch at Hofstra University tonight.

Experts predict that it will be one of the most-watched presidential debates in American history.

The first debate between Romney and Obama on Oct. 3 drew 67.2 million viewers, making it the most viewed presidential debate since the 1992 debate among George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot and the third most-watched opening debate since 1976, according to Nielsen, the media and information measurement company.

Last week's vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan also drew a solid viewership with 51.4 million having watched, putting it at number three all time behind the 2008 debate between Biden and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 69.9 million and the 1984 debate between Vice President George Bush and New York congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro at 56.7 million.

With two strong Nielsen reports in the books, tonight's debate is being hyped as must-see TV and early predictions are calling for it to be among the most viewed all time.

Obama and Romney's first debate was in the same balpark as the top-viewed presidential debates, sitting at sixth overall within 3 million of numbers five through two.

However, the 2012 rivals have a long way to go if they're going to catch the sole 1980 debate between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter (without independent John Anderson), which drew whopping 80.6 million viewers.

Attracting a high number of eye balls in the first two debates is no guarantee that those eye balls will come back for the remaining two debates. The second debate has been more viewed than the first four times in the previous eight debates, making it a wash from a numbers perspective.

University of Texas professor of public affairs Paul Stekler said the interest level for presidential debates varies dependent on the candidates, the issues and the trends of the campaign, all of which have been volatile thus far.

After the first debate, Stekler said there should be substantial interest in tonight's debate.

"People who are partial to Obama, they want to see if he can come back from his poor performance last time and people who favor Romney want to see if he can keep it up," he said. "Both those guys know what they need to do."

Since its introduction in 1992, three out of the five town hall-style debates have seen an increase in viewership over the debate prior, with the two exceptions being the George W. Bush vs. Al Gore in 2000 and Bush vs. John Kerry in 2004.

These debates can be more treacherous, Stekler said, as candidates have to face questions from citizens rather than a moderator or panel of journalists, questions that are sometimes more pointed and off-the-cuff.

One of George H.W. Bush's defining moments from his town hall debate against Perot and Clinton came when he visibly checked the time on his watch, which might not have been the best way to present himself to 69.9 million viewers, the second most of any presidential debate.

Despite having 9 million and 16 million fewer viewers than the opening debates in 2000 and 2004 respectively, George W. Bush had success in both town hall debates, turning around polling deficits both times.

Nielsen does not release viewer projections, but Stekler expects another large audience for tonight's debate, which could be a make or break moment for the president.

"If President Obama does well in the second debate then we might be right back where we were a few weeks ago, if he does poorly then we might have a cliffhanger," Stekler said.