2013 – The Year of the Gold Bull?

2012 wasn’t a fun year for most Gold bulls. Seeing the S&P 500 outperform Gold and seeing Gold stocks get decimated through the 1st half of the year was enough to create suicidal sentiment that is now only marginally improved after another prolonged correction in the precious metals (PM) sector to end the year. But as the many calls for an end of the PM bull market by several of the same people who have been wrong / missed out the whole way up get louder, the risk in the PM sector gets lower and lower.

The bigger picture hasn’t changed and isn’t going to for some time: a major private sector secular economic contraction in the West being fought with manufactured money/credit units by governments and central bankstaz. This is not a period to favor paper, as reflected by common stocks, over Gold. My trade of the year for 2013 is the same as my favored trade back in August: go long the “Gold to Dow” ratio (or short the “Dow to Gold” ratio).

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