Anyone following the Sunshine Coast Rugby Union’s SGQ Cup closely may have spotted that the double chance in the finals has not been mathematically secured. That being said, the same was true about top spot last week.

Two weeks ago I outlined how a Double Dissolution election would pan out using Above the Line votes from Queensland. The analysis concluded that there would be five LNP senators; three from Labor; and one each from Palmer United, the Greens and the Fishing & Lifestyle Party. Continue reading “A few tricks go a long way”→

With a Double Dissolution being speculated by some, I figured I would see how the last senate election would pan out if it were a DD election.
For this post I’m using the above the line votes from Queensland. The software being used is OpenSTV v1.6.1. The latest version is available from openstv.org.

Now, I know the flaw in the method I’m using is the number of candidates with zero votes not getting overflow votes. Adding the below the line votes would help this but won’t be used here unless there is a more efficient way to translate the AEC data.

Count of first preferences, the candidates Ian MacDonald LNP, Chris Ketter ALP, and Glenn Lazarus PUP – now IND – have reached the threshold and are elected. Candidates have surplus votes so surplus votes will be transferred for round two.

Votes were transferred from Ian MacDonald LNP at a ratio of 876149/1071375 to James McGrath LNP. McGrath is now elected.

Votes were transferred from James McGrath LNP at a ratio of 680921.976125/876147.976125 to Matthew Canavan LNP. Canavan is now elected.

Votes were transferred from Chris Ketter ALP at a ratio of 536841/732067. Clare Moore ALP is now elected.

Votes were transferred from Matthew Canavan LNP at a ratio of 485694.952250/680920.952250 to David Goodwin LNP. Goodwin is now elected.

Votes were transferred from Clare Moore ALP at a ratio of 341614.836574/536840.836574 to Mark Furner ALP. Furner is now elected.

Votes were transferred from David Goodwin LNP to Theresa Craig LNP at a ratio of 290467.928375/485693.928375. Craig is now elected.

Votes from Mark Furner ALP were transferred at a ratio of 146388.673148/341614.673148 to Nikki Boyd ALP. Boyd did not reach the threshold with this transfer.

Votes from Theresa Craig LNP were transferred at a ratio of 95240.904500/290466.904500 to Amanda Stoker LNP. Stoker did not reach the threshold with this transfer.

Votes from Glenn Lazarus PUP were transferred at a ratio of 56123/251349 to Clive Mensink. Mensink did not reach the threshold with this transfer.

So just on the allocation of first preferences and transferring excess votes there are nine candidates elected. They are five from the LNP, three from the ALP and one from the PUP.

In the screen cap above you can see the mass exclusion of those with no votes. From this point up to the elimination of Clive Mensink PUP at count 41, the votes are transferred at full value as they would be in Instant Runoff Voting used in the House of Reps.

57840.964163 votes from Clive Mensink PUP were transferred to Adam Stone GRN. Stone has been elected.

Votes from Adam Stone GRN were transferred at at a ratio of 16365.964163/211591.964163 to Amanda Stoker LNP and James Moylen HMP. Neither Stoker or Moylen have reached the threshold.

Amanda Stoker LNP has been eliminated. 100064.677855 votes were transferred to Daniel McCarthy AFLP. McCarthy has now been elected.

Votes from Daniel McCarthy AFLP were transferred at a ratio of 14407.677855/209633.677855 to James Moylen HMP and James Blundell KAP. Neither Moylen or Blundell have reached the threshold.

116534.666473 from James Blundell KAP were transferred to James Moylen HMP and Nikki Boyd ALP. Boyd is now elected.

The count ends here. The make up of the final rounds of counting are one Green; one Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party; and one Labor.

The candidates taking seats in the senate on this count would be –

Ian MacDonald LNP

Chris Ketter ALP

Glenn Lazarus PUP

James McGrath LNP

Matthew Canavan LNP

Clare Moore ALP

David Goodwin LNP

Mark Furner ALP

Theresa Craig LNP

Adam Stone GRN

Daniel McCarthy AFLP

Nikki Boyd ALP.

There may be a few changes if the below the line votes were added. If you have any input please let me know.