Pro-Football-Reference.com Lynn Dickey newsfeedhttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/news.cgi?id=DickLy00
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31673Sports Reference Logo1/12: FootballPerspective.com- Guest Post: Are Interceptions Overrated?http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-are-interceptions-overrated/
Guest contributor Adam Steele is back again. You can read all of Adam&#8217;s articles here. Are Interceptions Overrated? Thereâs nothing worse than throwing an interception. Everyone seems to agree on this, from fans to media to advanced stats guys. But is it really true? In this quick study, I l2015-01-12 17:36:111/8: Dairyland Express- The 5 coldest games in Packers-Cowboys historyhttp://dairylandexpress.com/2015/01/08/5-coldest-games-packers-cowboys-history/
As concern swarms around the bitter temperatures predicted for the NFC Divisional Playoff game between the Dallas Cowboys and host Green Bay Packers this Sunday, let&#039;s take a look into the five coldest games in Packers-Cowboys history. This will be the seventh playoff meeting between the lon...2015-01-08 07:38:231/4: FootballPerspective.com- Ryan Lindley Had the 9th Worst Passing Performance in Playoff Historyhttp://www.footballperspective.com/ryan-lindley-had-the-9th-worst-passing-performance-in-playoff-history/
Ryan Lindley had a very, very bad day against the Carolina Panthers on Saturday. He completed 16 of 28 passes for just 82 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was also sacked four times and lost 31 yards. Assigning 20 yards per passing touchdown and -45 per interception, and including2015-01-04 22:36:0811/13: FootballPerspective.com- Sixteen Straight Losseshttp://www.footballperspective.com/sixteen-straight-losses/
Can you think back to November 18, 2013? Lorde&#8217;s &#8220;Royals&#8221; was the number one song in the country. The price of gas was $3.30/gallon. Barack Obama was the President. And Matt McGloin (3 touchdowns, no interceptions) and Rashad Jennings (150 rushing yards) had just led the Raiders to2014-11-13 00:36:0111/7: FootballPerspective.com- Andy Dalton Had One of the 100 Worst Passing Games Since 1970http://www.footballperspective.com/andy-dalton-had-one-of-the-100-worst-passing-games-since-1970/
Last night, Andy Dalton was not very good. completed 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards, while throwing 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Add in his two sacks for 14 yards, and Dalton averaged -1.80 ANY/A. That&#8217;s terrible, of course, but how bad does that measure historically? Let&#8217;s use the sa2014-11-07 11:36:0410/13: FootballPerspective.com- Eli Manning and the Hall of Famehttp://www.footballperspective.com/eli-manning-and-the-hall-of-fame/
Let&#8217;s worry about axes and labels later. For now, take a look at the graph below. The red dots represent Hall of Fame quarterbacks (or players not yet eligible but very likely to wind up in Canton). The blue dots represent non-HOF quarterbacks. The black dot? That&#8217;s Eli Manning. Okay, so2014-10-13 00:35:5410/5: Lombardi Ave- Green Bay Packers: It's not always about the numbershttp://lombardiave.com/2014/10/05/going-numbers/
Green Bay Packers fans and those who love the NFL can get caught up in numbers, using statistics to back their arguments about the &#34;best ever&#34; lists that tend, unfortunately, to dominate the coverage of the game these days. Could it be that thepasser rating measure is a flawed tool that...2014-10-05 10:39:4810/4: Lombardi Ave- Aaron Rodgers: The touchdown machine - 1st, 100th and 200thhttp://lombardiave.com/2014/10/04/rodgers-1-100-200/
Aaron Rodgers has been quarterback par exellencefor the Green Bay Packers over the courseof his career. Though his first completion as a Packer, a pass to former Packers fullback Vonta Leach for zero yards, was far from excellent, Rodgers has stepped into his role as a starting NFL quarterback wi...2014-10-04 12:39:099/16: Lombardi Ave- Aaron Rodgers: Among the Green Bay Packers greatshttp://lombardiave.com/2014/09/16/congradulations-making-company-among-greatest-aaron-rodgers/
While some have said Green Bay Packers quarterbackAaron Rodgers isthe best ever, we&#039;ve held off on that until some things showed in black, white, green and gold. It&#039;s not that we never noticed his accomplishments. He has pulled this teamthrough some toughtimes, delivering several divisiona2014-09-16 22:38:579/11: Dairyland Express- Hall of Famer Bart Starr recovering from &#x2018;mild stroke&#x2019;http://dairylandexpress.com/2014/09/10/hall-famer-bart-starr-recovering-mild-stroke/
Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame quarterback Bart Starr is reportedly recovering from what his family is calling a mild stroke. The Packers issued a release with an update from Starr&#8217;s family. &#8220;Last week, Bart Starr suffered a mild ischemic stroke, but is very functional and making pro...2014-09-11 01:39:328/25: Lombardi Ave- 10 days to Packers football: Howard 'Cub' Buckhttp://lombardiave.com/2014/08/25/10-days-packers-football-howard-cub-buck/
With 10 days left until the start of theNFLseason, our countdown to the big day continues. Thursday, Sept. 4, is the day whentheGreen Bay Packerstravel to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl ChampionSeahawks. Over the course of the next 10 days we focus on the number that represents the days remain...2014-08-25 07:38:358/24: Lombardi Ave- 11 days to Packers football: Red Dunnhttp://lombardiave.com/2014/08/24/11-days-green-bay-packers-football-red-dunn/
With 11 days left until the start of theNFLseason, our countdown to the big day continues. Thursday, Sept. 4, is the day whentheGreen Bay Packerstravel to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl ChampionSeahawks. Over the course of the next 11 days we focus on the number that represents the days remain...2014-08-24 22:38:448/23: Lombardi Ave- The countdown continues: Chester Marcol, Chris Jacke, Lynn Dickey and Aaron Rodgershttp://lombardiave.com/2014/08/23/countdown-continues/
With 12 days left until the start of theNFLseason, our countdown to the big day continues. Thursday, Sept. 4, is the day whentheGreen Bay Packerstravel to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl ChampionSeahawks. Over the course of the next 12 days we focus on the number that represents the days remain...2014-08-23 23:38:478/19: Lombardi Ave- The Green Bay Packers fan base benefit package: QBhttp://lombardiave.com/2014/08/19/packers-fan-base-benefit-package-qb/
Watching the Cleveland Browns play the Washington Redskins in preseason battle has really opened my eyes and given me some time to reflect on the Green Bay Packers&#039; quarterback situation. Packers fans across the country have been given the gift of a constant quarterback dating back to the la...2014-08-19 14:39:238/14: Dairyland Express- Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy Resigned To Reality Of Turfhttp://dairylandexpress.com/2014/08/14/green-bay-packers-coach-mike-mccarthy-resigned-reality-turf/
The Green Bay Packers visit the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis for their second preseason game on Saturday, a scenario that would not have happened during the early years of McCarthy&#8217;s tenure. McCarthy hated the idea of playing preseason games on the plastic stuff, worried about losing a pl...2014-08-14 23:39:337/26: FootballPerspective.com- Steve Grogan is the Yards Per Completion Kinghttp://www.footballperspective.com/steve-grogan-is-the-yards-per-completion-king/
In 2013, the average completion went for 11.63 yards. That&#8217;s a pretty low number historically, although it&#8217;s actually a bit higher than some of the recent NFL seasons. Take a look at how Yards per Completion has generally been declining throughout NFL history: If you want to discuss the 2014-07-26 00:35:567/14: FootballPerspective.com- The Top Receivers And The Men Who Threw It To Them IIhttp://www.footballperspective.com/the-top-receivers-and-the-men-who-threw-it-to-them-ii/
One of my first posts at Football Perspective was one of my favorites: the top receivers and the men who threw it to them. I like referencing that post from time to time, so I decided to update the numbers through the 2013 season. I looked at all regular season games since 19601, and calculated [&#82014-07-14 00:35:476/22: Lombardi Ave- http://lombardiave.com/?p=29414
With 73 days left until the start of theNFLseason, our countdown to the big day continues. Thursday, Sept. 4, is the day whentheGreen Bay Packerstravel to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl ChampionSeahawks. Over the course of the next 73 days we focus on the number that represents the days remaining2014-06-22 12:38:446/13: Lombardi Ave- Brett Favre: Winning, titles, ringshttp://lombardiave.com/2014/06/13/brett-favre-green-bay-packers-hall-of-fame-2/
Turn back the pages to the year 1992, when Brett Favre ruled Packers Nation. He started out good enough, then as time moved on he showed his moves. Things looked better. Within a year, they all loved him. He was leading them back into the seldom seen NFL playoffs, with the likes of John Madden in...2014-06-13 18:37:566/13: FootballPerspective.com- The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part III: Adjusted Dropbackshttp://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-v-part-iii-adjusted-dropbacks/
The comments to Parts I and II of this series have been great, so let me start with a thank you. One of the more difficult parts of this process is comparing players across eras not just for efficiency, but for gross volume. In 2013, teams averaged 38.0 pass attempts (including sacks) per game, comp2014-06-13 00:35:526/9: FootballPerspective.com- The Greatest QB of All-Time V, Part I (Methodology)http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-v-part-i-methodology/
In 2006, I took a stab at ranking every quarterback in NFL history. Two years later, I acquired more data and made enough improvements to merit publishing an updated and more accurate list of the best quarterbacks the league has ever seen. In 2009, I tweaked the formula again, and published a set of2014-06-09 00:35:534/28: Lombardi Ave- The Green Bay Packers should consider offensive line in the Drafthttp://lombardiave.com/2014/04/28/green-bay-packers-2014-nfl-draft-offensive-line/
Taking a look at the Green Bay Packers needs this draft season surely can lead to disagreements, even among the best of friends. One guy wants a free safety, and the next wants yet another name defensive lineman or a tight end. They all have merit. Yet, there&#039;s a disturbing tre...2014-04-28 10:37:393/24: FootballPerspective.com- Expected Quarterbacks Wins Based On Passing Efficiencyhttp://www.footballperspective.com/expected-quarterbacks-wins-based-on-passing-efficiency/
On Friday, the Jets released Mark Sanchez. I don&#8217;t have much in the way of a post mortem, but it felt odd not to have at least some post on the subject. And despite watching every Sanchez start for four years, it still takes me by surprise when I see that his career record is [&#8230;]2014-03-24 00:36:213/23: FootballPerspective.com- Which Quarterbacks Produced Peak Years For Their Receivers?http://www.footballperspective.com/which-quarterbacks-produced-peak-years-for-their-receivers/
Some quarterbacks and wide receivers just go together. Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Dan Marino and Mark Clayton and Mark Duper. Joe Namath and Don Maynard. John Hadl and Lance Alworth. But quarterbacks play with lots of receivers, and receivers generally play with several quarterbacks. We don2014-03-23 00:36:193/19: FootballPerspective.com- Checkdowns: Judging QBs By Their Top 5 Seasonshttp://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-judging-qbs-by-their-top-5-seasons/
While working on a different post, I needed to derive a quick-and-dirty formula to identify the top 100 or so quarterbacks in NFL history. Here is how I went about doing that: 1) Calculate the Relative ANY/A of each quarterback in every season since 1950. ANY/A, of course, is Adjusted Net Yards per 2014-03-19 00:36:031/27: FootballPerspective.com- The Best Playoff Quarterbacks In The Super Bowl Erahttp://www.footballperspective.com/the-best-playoff-quarterbacks-in-the-super-bowl-era/
On Friday, I explained the idea behind Playoff Leverage. That post is required reading before diving in today, but the summary is that the Super Bowl counts for more than the conference championship games, which count for more than the division round games, which count for more than the wild card ga2014-01-27 23:36:131/23: FootballPerspective.com- Super Bowl Leverage And the Best Postseason Passers Since 1966http://www.footballperspective.com/super-bowl-leverage-and-the-best-postseason-passers-since-1966/
Even for Football Perspective, this is a very math-heavy post. I&#8217;ve explained all the dirty work and fine details behind this system, but if you want to skip to the results section, I&#8217;ll understand. Heck, it might even make more sense to start there and then work your way back to the top2014-01-23 23:36:3112/27: FootballPerspective.com- Ryan Tannehill had one of the worst passing games everhttp://www.footballperspective.com/ryan-tannehill-had-one-of-the-worst-passing-games-ever/
Did you happen to notice the stat line produced by Ryan Tannehill last week? He completed just 10 of 27 passes for only 82 yards in a 19-0 loss to the Bills. A 37% completion rate and a 3.0 yards per attempt average are ugly numbers in their own right, but Tannehill was also sacked [&#8230;]2013-12-27 23:36:3612/25: FootballPerspective.com- More Impressive Passing TD Record: Manning 2013 or Marino 1984?http://www.footballperspective.com/more-impressive-passing-td-record-manning-2013-or-marino-1984/
With one game remaining, Peyton Manning has already set the new single-season record with 51 passing touchdowns (two months ago, I projected Manning to finish the season with 52 touchdowns). But all records must be viewed in their environment, and NFL teams are averaging 1.58 touchdown passes per te2013-12-25 23:36:4012/19: FootballPerspective.com- Eli Manning in elite INT territoryhttp://www.footballperspective.com/eli-manning-in-elite-int-territory/
After a five-interception performance against a dominant Seattle pass defense, Eli Manning now has 25 interceptions this season. The odds are extremely low, but it&#8217;s not impossible that he throws ten more interceptions and ties the modern record set by Vinny Testaverde in 1988. That year, a 252013-12-19 23:38:3910/20: FootballPerspective.com- Multiple Pick Sixes by a Defensive Player against the Same Quarterbackhttp://www.footballperspective.com/multiple-pick-sixes-by-a-defensive-player-against-the-same-quarterback/
On Tuesday, I look at the quarterbacks who have thrown the most pick sixes. As a follow-up, I wondered: what&#8217;s the record for pick sixes by a defensive player against a quarterback? Rod Woodson is the career leader in interception return scores with twelve, but only two of those came against t2013-10-20 00:36:0310/15: FootballPerspective.com- Most Pick Sixes Thrown in NFL Historyhttp://www.footballperspective.com/most-pick-sixes-thrown-in-nfl-history/
Three years ago to the day, I crunched the numbers to see which quarterbacks had thrown the most pick sixes thrown in NFL history. With three more years of data, a robust play-by-play database, and, ya know, Matt Schaub, I figured it was time for an update. In case you haven&#8217;t noticed, Schaub 2013-10-15 00:36:1210/7: FootballPerspective.com- Where Does Manning/Romo Rank Among Great QB Games?http://www.footballperspective.com/where-does-manningromo-rank-among-great-qb-games/
Peyton Manning and Tony Romo staged a classic yesterday afternoon in Dalllas. The Broncos won 51-48, and the two quarterbacks put up ridiculous stat lines. Manning went 33 of 42 for 414 yards, and threw four touchdowns and just one interception. He wasn&#8217;t sacked, giving him an impressive 10.692013-10-07 12:36:459/29: FootballPerspective.com- Sam Bradford, and Ranking Quarterbacks by Yards per Completionhttp://www.footballperspective.com/sam-bradford-and-ranking-quarterbacks-by-yards-per-completion/
As a rookie, Sam Bradford ranked last in the league in yards per completion. That year, he averaged 9.92 YPC, 1.61 yards per completion lower than the league average of 11.53. In his second and third years &#8212; 2011 and 2012 &#8212; Bradford was a little better in that metric, but he still finish2013-09-29 00:36:269/27: Lombardi Ave- Aaron Rodgers: Not Top NFL QB?http://lombardiave.com/2013/09/27/aaron-rodgers-nfl-quartback-4th-quarter-comebacks/
According to ESPN writer Scott Kacsmar, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers may not be the league&#8217;s top player at his position due to his win-loss record in fourth quarter comeback. Rodgers is reportedly 5-24Â (.172) in games when he had the ball in the fourth quarter, trailing by 1-8 2013-09-27 22:35:429/14: Lombardi Ave- Packers vs. Redskins: Two games from Days Gone Byhttp://lombardiave.com/2013/09/14/packers-redskins-nfl-history-monday-night-football/
Whenever the Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins face off, I remember two past contests between them immediately. First, the 1972 divisional playoff game where the Packers faced the George Allen led Redskins with the &#8220;Over the Hill Gang&#8221; with Billy Kilmer at quarterback and the2013-09-14 13:35:518/27: FootballPerspective.com- Is Russell Wilson the next Ben Roethlisberger?http://www.footballperspective.com/is-russell-wilson-the-next-ben-roethlisberger/
On the surface, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger have almost nothing in common. Wilson was an undersized, overlooked, third-round pick, while Roethlisberger was a first round pick who is one of the most physically imposing quarterbacks in NFL history. But both players had pretty similar rookie 2013-08-27 00:36:138/10: FootballPerspective.com- The Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever (Part II)http://www.footballperspective.com/the-biggest-fluke-fantasy-seasons-ever-part-ii/
Yesterday, I set up a method for ranking the flukiest fantasy football seasons since the NFL-AFL merger, finding players who had elite fantasy seasons that were completely out of step with the rest of their careers. I highlighted fluke years #21-30, so here&#8217;s a recap of the rankings thus far: 2013-08-10 00:36:048/9: FootballPerspective.com- The Biggest Fluke Fantasy Seasons Ever (Part I)http://www.footballperspective.com/the-biggest-fluke-fantasy-seasons-ever-part-i/
There&#8217;s nothing like a truly great fluke fantasy season. Because they can help carry you to a league championship (and therefore eternal bragging rights &#8212; flags fly forever, after all), a random player who unexpectedly has a great season will often have a special place in the heart of ev2013-08-09 00:36:106/29: FootballPerspective.com- Quarterback Trivia: Passing Titles, MVPs, and Titleshttp://www.footballperspective.com/quarterback-trivia-passing-titles-mvps-and-titles/
Sid Luckman did it twice. Two Packers quarterbacks, Arnie Herber and Irv Comp, did it with help from Don Hutson. Sammy Baugh did it as a rookie in 1937. In five out of eleven seasons from 1936 to 1946, the league leader in passing yards also won the NFL championship. Otto Graham led the AAFC [...]2013-06-29 00:36:005/1: FootballPerspective.com- Where Does Tim Tebow Rank in the Pantheon of Great Quarterbackshttp://www.footballperspective.com/where-does-tim-tebow-rank-in-the-pantheon-of-great-quarterbacks/
With the Jets releasing Tim Tebow, it appears that his NFL career may be over. If that&#8217;s the case, it&#8217;s time to reflect on a great career that never ceased to captivate the nation. While there are many ways to grade a quarterback, probably the best and simplest measure would be &#8220;pr2013-05-01 00:35:554/16: FootballPerspective.com- Do NFL teams properly value age when drafting quarterbacks?http://www.footballperspective.com/do-nfl-teams-properly-value-age-when-drafting-quarterbacks/
For the most part, age is rarely discussed when talking about college quarterbacks. Outside of the Brandon Weedens and Chris Weinkes of the world, you generally don&#8217;t hear much from the draft community about the age of a prospect. But we do know that age matters, and that all other things bein2013-04-16 00:35:524/13: FootballPerspective.com- Fourth Quarter/Overtime Game-Winning Passing Touchdownshttp://www.footballperspective.com/fourth-quarterovertime-game-winning-passing-touchdowns/
Yesterday, I looked at the career leaders in 4th quarter (and overtime) game-winning touchdowns from scrimmage. Today I will do the same thing for passing touchdowns. As a reminder: tracking things like game-winning touchdowns is only interesting in a trivial sort way. I looked at all games, regular2013-04-13 00:35:474/2: Lombardi Ave- Lynn Dickey: A Green Bay Packers greathttp://lombardiave.com/2013/04/02/lynn-dickey-a-green-bay-packers-great/
I remember the first time I saw Green Bay Packers quarterback Lynn Dickey throw the football while warming up on the sidelines of the Metrodome in Minneapolis prior to a game against the Vikings in 1983 and thinking, &#8216;good God, that guy can throw!&#8217; His tight 30-yard spirals were caught o2013-04-02 14:35:302/19: Lombardi Ave- New generation of Green Bay Packers fans are spoiledhttp://lombardiave.com/2013/02/19/new-generation-of-green-bay-packers-fans-are-spoiled/
It seems like a new generation of Green Bay Packers fans are taking over &#8211; they&#8217;re taking over Facebook; they&#8217;re taking over Twitter; they&#8217;re taking over ticket sales. In the end, that&#8217;s a great thing. Passing of the torch of fandom is what it&#8217;s all about to keep 2013-02-19 22:35:191/21: FootballPerspective.com- Is Joe Flacco elite?http://www.footballperspective.com/is-joe-flacco-elite/
Just a guess, but I think that question will be asked quite a few times over the next couple of weeks. While the inanity of the discussion that usually follows that question is not something I wish to emulate, there&#8217;s no particular reason not to take an in-depth look at Flacco&#8217;s career. 2013-01-21 23:35:421/4: FootballPerspective.com- Checkdowns: Career passing stats in wins and losseshttp://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-career-passing-stats-in-wins-and-losses/
Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses; today I will do the same but for quarterbacks. I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all quarterbacks with at least 5,000 career passing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following inf2013-01-04 23:35:4811/30: The Jet Press- 1982 New York Jets: A Look Back Continueshttp://thejetpress.com/2012/11/30/1982-new-york-jets-a-look-back-continues-2/
As we continue our look back on this near special season, we come to game #4, now a couple of weeks removed from the extended players strike. It was November 28th, 1982 at Shea Stadium between the Jets and the Green Bay Packers: 1 2 3 4 Green Bay Packers (3-1-0) 6 7 0 0 [...]1982 New York Jets: A Lo2012-11-30 20:35:2411/17: FootballPerspective.com- Checkdowns: QB Playoff Wins by Collegehttp://www.footballperspective.com/checkdowns-qb-playoff-wins-by-college/
Watching Matt Barkley today against UCLA, I tweeted that Mark Sanchez is responsible for 4 of the 9 playoff wins by USC quarterbacks. Since twitter is not a very good medium for showing large datasets, here&#8217;s a quick look at which colleges have produced the quarterbacks with the most playoff v2012-11-17 19:35:4110/4: FootballPerspective.com- Quarter-by-Quarter Team Win Probability Addedhttp://www.footballperspective.com/quarter-by-quarter-team-win-probability-added/
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about a method of calculating a team&#8217;s win probability at the end of any given quarter, given the pregame Vegas line and the score margin of the game after the quarter in question. Today, I want to break down those numbers in more detail by looking at which [...]2012-10-04 00:36:249/24: FootballPerspective.com- Interceptions per Incompletion (or POPIP)http://www.footballperspective.com/interceptions-per-incompletion-or-popip/
I leave the baseball analysis to my brothers at baseball-reference.com, but I know enough to be dangerous. There&#8217;s a stat called BABIP, which stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play. A &#8220;ball in play&#8221; is simply any at bat that doesn&#8217;t end in a home run or a strikeout. The 2012-09-24 00:36:301/10: AllGreenBayPackers.com- Game Balls and Lame Calls: Playoff Edition&#8211;Packers 21, Eagles 16http://www.jerseyal.com/GBP/2011/01/10/game-balls-and-lame-calls-playoff-edition-packers-21-eagles-16/
The Green Bay Packers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 21-16 in a nail-biting NFC Wild Card game Sunday afternoon. The Packers now move on to face the Atlanta Falcons Saturday night in the divisional round for the right to play in the NFC championship game. 2011-01-10 22:52:14