After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...

Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)

Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.

Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.

These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

August

8/12

Tijuana1

37%

31%

Cruz Azul1

32%

TIJ

CAZ

Adjusted goals

0.8

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.8

1.1

8/12

Guadalajara1

37%

28%

Santos Laguna2

35%

GDL

SAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.8

8/12

Pumas UNAM0

46%

26%

Pachuca0

28%

PUM

PAC

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.8

8/11

Club América3

40%

28%

Monterrey0

32%

AME

MON

Adjusted goals

2.5

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.4

8/11

León4

46%

28%

Querétaro0

26%

LEO

QTO

Adjusted goals

3.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.0

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.9

1.9

8/11

Tigres UANL1

48%

29%

Toluca2

23%

TIG

TOL

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.7

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.5

1.0

8/11

Lobos BUAP0

47%

28%

Atlas0

25%

BUAP

ATL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.6

Non-shot xG

0.8

1.0

8/10

Morelia2

42%

28%

Necaxa1

30%

MOR

NEC

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.6

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.2

2.2

8/10

Puebla1

52%

28%

Veracruz2

21%

PUE

VER

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.2

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.4

8/5

Tijuana1

49%

27%

León1

24%

TIJ

LEO

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.8

Shot-based xG

1.8

1.5

Non-shot xG

1.9

2.9

8/5

Santos Laguna2

52%

26%

Puebla0

22%

SAN

PUE

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.5

0.1

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.7

8/5

Toluca2

50%

28%

Guadalajara2

22%

TOL

GDL

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.3

2.3

Non-shot xG

1.9

1.7

8/4

Monterrey2

62%

25%

Querétaro1

13%

MON

QTO

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.4

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.9

8/4

Cruz Azul1

41%

31%

Tigres UANL0

27%

CAZ

TIG

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.2

0.4

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.7

8/4

Pachuca1

36%

28%

Club América3

35%

PAC

AME

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.9

Shot-based xG

1.1

2.1

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.8

8/4

Necaxa1

48%

27%

Lobos BUAP0

25%

NEC

BUAP

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.9

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.2

8/3

Atlas0

40%

27%

Pumas UNAM3

33%

ATL

PUM

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.4

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.5

Non-shot xG

0.4

0.9

8/3

Veracruz2

33%

29%

Morelia2

38%

VER

MOR

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.8

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.5

July

7/29

León0

29%

26%

Monterrey2

45%

LEO

MON

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.3

Shot-based xG

0.3

1.4

Non-shot xG

0.4

1.7

7/29

Tigres UANL1

49%

29%

Tijuana0

22%

TIG

TIJ

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.1

7/29

Lobos BUAP2

48%

28%

Veracruz0

24%

BUAP

VER

Adjusted goals

1.6

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.4

7/29

Pumas UNAM5

39%

29%

Necaxa3

32%

PUM

NEC

Adjusted goals

4.8

3.2

Shot-based xG

2.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.1

7/28

Guadalajara0

33%

30%

Cruz Azul1

38%

GDL

CAZ

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.8

7/28

Club América3

52%

27%

Atlas0

21%

AME

ATL

Adjusted goals

3.2

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.3

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.1

7/28

Querétaro1

36%

29%

Pachuca0

35%

QTO

PAC

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.0

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.3

7/27

Puebla2

34%

29%

Toluca1

38%

PUE

TOL

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.1

1.2

Non-shot xG

0.5

1.3

7/27

Morelia3

34%

27%

Santos Laguna1

40%

MOR

SAN

Adjusted goals

2.5

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.6

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.8

7/22

Necaxa2

38%

30%

Club América1

32%

NEC

AME

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.5

1.4

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.8

7/22

Santos Laguna2

57%

24%

Lobos BUAP1

19%

SAN

BUAP

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.0

0.9

7/22

Toluca2

51%

26%

Morelia0

23%

TOL

MOR

Adjusted goals

1.5

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.2

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.5

7/21

Tijuana2

46%

29%

Guadalajara1

25%

TIJ

GDL

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.7

7/21

Tigres UANL2

55%

25%

León0

20%

TIG

LEO

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.4

0.8

7/21

Pachuca0

33%

27%

Monterrey1

40%

PAC

MON

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.7

Non-shot xG

2.0

0.8

7/21

Cruz Azul3

53%

27%

Puebla0

20%

CAZ

PUE

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.5

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.6

7/20

Atlas0

45%

29%

Querétaro0

26%

ATL

QTO

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.9

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.0

7/20

Veracruz0

38%

28%

Pumas UNAM2

33%

VER

PUM

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

1.8

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.1

See more

Team rating

avg. simulated season

avg. simulated season

end-of-season probabilities

team

spi

off.

def.

W

D

L

goal diff.

proj. pts.pts.

make playoffs

win apertura

Monterrey9 pts

58.7

1.6

1.0

9.3

3.5

4.3

+8

31

88%

18%

Club América9 pts

57.4

1.6

1.1

8.9

3.5

4.5

+12

30

87%

15%

Cruz Azul10 pts

55.0

1.4

1.0

8.7

4.7

3.6

+9

31

87%

13%

Tigres UANL6 pts

54.7

1.3

0.9

7.6

3.8

5.6

+5

27

67%

10%

Santos Laguna9 pts

52.9

1.5

1.2

8.3

3.5

5.2

+5

28

75%

9%

Toluca7 pts

52.3

1.5

1.2

7.4

4.5

5.1

+5

27

67%

8%

Pumas UNAM10 pts

47.6

1.4

1.4

7.5

4.5

5.0

+6

27

69%

6%

Tijuana5 pts

48.6

1.3

1.2

5.8

5.7

5.5

+1

23

43%

4%

Necaxa6 pts

47.0

1.3

1.2

6.7

3.7

6.6

-1

24

45%

4%

Morelia7 pts

44.9

1.4

1.4

6.3

4.5

6.2

-1

23

43%

3%

León4 pts

45.6

1.4

1.4

5.5

4.4

7.0

-1

21

29%

2%

Pachuca1 pt

46.4

1.3

1.3

4.7

4.7

7.6

-4

19

17%

2%

Guadalajara1 pt

45.4

1.3

1.3

4.5

4.7

7.9

-4

18

15%

1%

Lobos BUAP4 pts

41.9

1.2

1.4

4.7

4.6

7.6

-4

19

17%

1%

Querétaro4 pts

40.2

1.1

1.3

4.8

4.8

7.5

-8

19

17%

<1%

Puebla3 pts

40.4

1.2

1.4

4.7

3.6

8.6

-9

18

12%

<1%

Atlas2 pts

40.9

1.1

1.3

3.8

5.7

7.5

-10

17

10%

<1%

Veracruz4 pts

37.1

1.1

1.4

4.3

4.6

8.1

-9

18

11%

<1%

Forecast from

Season

The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase.The third-place team from each group qualifies for the UEFA Europa League knockout phase.The third-place finisher from each group in the UEFA Champions League — eight teams total — will join the UEFA Europa League in the round of 32.The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye.The top eight teams from each conference — 16 teams total — make the USL playoffs.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.The top six teams make the A-League playoffs, with two teams receiving a first-round bye.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the next two bottom teams will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.One to three teams are relegated through a playoff.