Wrong Numbers in Sports: Painting a Bigger Picture with Stats that Matter

Book Description

This Element is an excerpt from Stumbling
On Wins: Two Economists Expose the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory
in Professional Sports (9780132357784) by David J. Berri and
Martin B. Schmidt. Available in print and digital formats.

Why sports decision-makers are wrong so
often — and why they keep making the same mistakes, year
after year.

When Bill James introduced his findings on
the importance of on-base percentage–and the unimportance of
steals–decision-makers in baseball didn’t embrace his
work. Their initial reaction fully reflects the lessons of
behavioral economics: people have trouble accepting information
that contradicts their viewpoints. The same story has been seen
again and again across the North American professional sports
world.