Outside the box: WAR statistic sparks debate

WAR expresses how many wins a player was worth above a freely available replacement

Each week, HighHeatStats.com will focus on one advanced statistic. This week: Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

The Baltimore Orioles' Chris Davis leads the majors with 28 home runs and 74 RBI. But according to a metric called Wins Above Replacement (WAR), teammate Manny Machado (.319, five homers, 39 RBI) has been slightly more valuable. Wins Above Replacement is an incredibly popular — but also controversial — statistic. Comparisons between players such as Davis and Machado (last year it was Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout) seem to be at the root of much of the skepticism.

WAR expresses how many wins a player was worth above a freely available replacement. It is wins above replacement and not wins above average because average players are valuable commodities and not freely available. If a team needs to replace a player, it's typically not getting an average player to fill the spot. It's getting a replacement player.

The components of WAR are expressed in runs above or below average, as runs are the currency of the game. Each individual event (hit, walk, strong defensive play, etc.) has a run value (calculated from play-by-play data that show how many runs each type of event is typically worth).

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Here's how Davis and Machado compare in each WAR component (all numbers from Baseball-Reference.com through Sunday):

Baserunning and avoiding double plays: Davis' baserunning has been at the league average and his ability to avoid double plays is a run above. Machado is a run below on the bases and otherwise average.

Defense and position: Davis is a poor defender (minus 5 runs) while Machado has been the most valuable defender in the AL (plus 16 runs). Third base is also a harder position to fill than first base, so Machado is given another run while Davis is docked another four.

Altogether, Davis is worth 28 runs above average and Machado is worth 29. That converts to 4.3 WAR for Machado and 4.1 for Davis. The difference is negligible, but this shows how a well-rounded player such as Machado can quickly erase any offensive disadvantage.