Wednesday, November 07, 2012

A Few Thoughts Post-Election

In my job, I'm an analyst. I look for patterns and try to predict behavior based on available indicators. Being human, it's very hard to divorce rational analysis from emotional influences. But, I'll try. Here are some predictions for the next four years:
-Within the next 12 months, Iran will detonate a nuclear weapon. Much of the world will cry out. Ultimately, Iran will profit from it because it will sell its technology and/or hold the Persian Gulf hostage in exchange for eliminating sanctions. Arabs will not stand for Persians having the bomb. Neither will Turks for that matter. This will start a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Every oil-rich country that can afford it (all of them) will start its own nuclear program, or will buy the technology from China or Russia. Which leads me to:
-Within the next two years, gasoline in the US will rise to at least $6 a
gallon due to a combination of the declining value of the dollar (see below),
tensions in the Middle East, regulations against fracking, and a
continued effort to deny drilling permits on public lands.
-Within the next four years, good people will stand agape and helpless and watch as Israel recovers from a major attack that threatens its soul and very existence. The US will declare support for Israel, but will not fight by her side.
-Within the next four years, China will project its military power to seize islands belonging to Japan, the Philippines, or Korea. It will happen quickly, and the US will be unable to respond.
-About that same time, North Korea will attack South Korea. It will probably be along the lines of what happened at Yeonpyong island in 2010. But, it could be worse.
-As people exhaust their unemployment benefits, disability claims will continue to skyrocket. As a result, the unemployment rate will drop.
-The number full-time employees will remain steady or drop, while the number of part-time employees will rise. Converting full-time employees to part-time employees is the cheapest option under Obamacare.
-The majority of the part-time employees will no longer have employer-based health insurance. The premiums for private insurance will rise to the point to where they are not affordable to the average worker. Thus will begin the entrenchment of the single-payer (government) system.
-The ratio of doctors per capita in the US will continue to decline.
-Within the next two years, the dollar will collapse to less than
half its current value. This is the ultimate effect of an indefinite Quantitative
Easing effort and an economy rocked by high oil prices.
-New regulations concerning fracking, coal, and fuel efficiency standards will cause a spike in energy prices.
-The collapse of the dollar, high energy prices, and global instability will cause hyperinflation that will raise prices of everyday goods approximately 200% from where they are now.
-Gold will hit $2000 per ounce. This is a conservative estimate.
-Within the next two years, someone will sue a church in Maryland for refusing to perform a homosexual marriage ceremony. After that, all churches will perform them or lose their tax-exempt status.
-The Supreme Court won't intervene and will likely affirm a civil right to homosexual marriage.
-By the time the next Presidential election rolls around, the
47% will be approximately 52% of the population. This will cause the
Republicans to lose the House and not have a chance to take the Senate.
-The next President Clinton will be elected in 2016.