More mundanely it is certainly true that our two countries are merely catching up with where we have been for quite some time in our relations with one another, rather than where we previously imagined ourselves to have been. Co-operation between the two states, particularly over Northern Ireland, has been exceptionally tight ever since the 1985 Anglo-Irish agreement established a single office jointly staffed by British and Irish civil servants.

Paradoxically, although the rapprochement in Northern Ireland has been the catalyst for the more general transformation of British-Irish relations, this visit has more to do with the people of the 26 counties than of Ireland as a whole. Yet what's striking about the visit is the silence that surrounds these formal events, matched by a general reticence, despite a few arrests, as if fearing to say too much on the subject.

As the Queen arrived at the president's official residence, Áras an Uachtaráin, the whole of Phoenix Park was cleared of visitors. Traffic in central Cork has already been falling as security tightens ahead of Thursday's official visit to that city's historic "English Market". And there has even been a good-mannered tolerance of the Sinn Féin mayor of Cashel, who conceded that the Queen's visit would be good for his town's tourist trade. And of course many ordinary folk will be intrigued in precisely the same way that people in England would by a visit from the Queen to their local town or village.

The English print and broadcast media have an increasing footprint in the Republic's market, such that members of Britain's royal family feature prominently in the firmament of the Irish popular mind – alongside English soccer and soap stars. But for the vast majority of Irish citizens the Queen's visit will be followed solely through the lens of the media. Only those who can be trusted to behave appropriately will be allowed anywhere near her royal person.

In truth, however, while the flying of the British flag remains a strangely rare occurrence, much of the Republic's external anxieties have long since shifted from London – and by extension Belfast – to Brussels, and a deeply troubling relationship with the European Central Bank, the IMF and the EU.

Indeed, tense negotiations with Europe have led to intemperate exchanges in the Dáil and the accusation of "economic treason" being levelled at former Taoiseach Brian Cowen by the minister for foreign affairs, Eamon Gilmore. In such stormy seas, official rapprochement with the old enemy may provide a much looked-for catharsis.

So this is not to be a joyful occasion, there is little enough cause for that in the country at this time. But instead it will be both a formal and a respectful one. In her visit to Dublin's Garden of Remembrance today she paid homage to the violent origins of the Irish state's earlier struggles to win its independence from her grandfather, George V. At the Islandbridge Memorial to those thousands of Irishmen who died in the service of the British army, the nation may take a moment to reflect on its long and complex ties both with the other island, and that disembodied northern part of itself still represented by this visiting head of state.

More important, I suspect, it will be about the Republic putting on a stately show of sovereignty at a time when many citizens are struggling to retain their belief in its hard-won independence.