There Are Still More Winter Storm Chances

By garylezak, on February 26th, 2018

Good morning bloggers,

The fascinating cycling weather pattern continues. The highly advertised block is currently forming right now, but will it have any influence on Kansas City’s weather? Will KC break its 1,483 day streak without a 3″ snow storm this winter? We are now beginning to run out of time. Remember, the biggest snowstorm in KC history happened in 1912 during the month of March when a 25″ storm struck KC, and that happened in late March. So, we actually still have time. I see at least a couple of chances, one of which will zip by around Wednesday-Thursday of this week, and then the potential better chance around March 11th -13th. And I am out of town on the 12th, so maybe this is a factor for that second storm? You may have heard of the LLTI?

Kansas City has already smashed the record for the longest time between 3″ snowfalls. The previous record was 1,018 days, and this streak is now at 1,483 days and counting. Another record may also be broken. I do not like records like these. Kansas City has never gone 3 years in a row with under 10″ of snow. Well, we need 4.2″ of snow in the next month or so, or we will set this new record. And, if you add in the 2011-2012 winter, where we set the record for the lowest total in KC recorded history with 3.9″, it only adds to the snow enthusiasts misery.

Precipitation totals will likely come in below average for the winter. In February it has been close to average as you can see here.

We have just moved into cycle 4 of this years LRC. When the pattern first started, October was pretty wet. The storm systems then became much less functional near KC as the snow statistics showcase. There was a wet storm around October 4-7, and this is what came through this past weekend. What is next? A storm around October 10th is right on schedule for Wednesday-Thursday almost exactly on the 47-day cycle or 141 days later (47 times 3-days later). The models have become a bit more interesting as this storm drops down the California coast.

The LRC Showcase Of The 47-Day Cycle

The weather pattern we are currently in developed in early October, and day 1 can arguably be around October 5, 6, or 7. This is about the time the weather pattern sets up each year. As we showcased in this blog dozens of times since this pattern began, we have shared with you that it is a 44-51 day cycle, centered on 47 to 48 days. The cycle length most often falls into that middle range, but the cycle is not perfect. This is a very complex atmospheric puzzle. As you look at this latest example above, one can clearly see that these upper level patterns are quite similar. We now have the February version of the pattern and it compares to the October version, and these dates are exactly 141 days apart or a 47-day cycle. The energy coming down the west coast formed into an upper low on October 10th and then kicked out over Missouri. It is once again forecast to form into an upper low, but the track and strength by the models has varied greatly. There are times that the LRC helps tremendously in specifics, especially when you are near where storm systems intensify. And, there are times where the LRC helps tremendously in “knowing” when a storm system will occur, how it will look, and this will verify. Forecasting the weather based on this information takes tremendous skill and an understanding of how it will affect the surface and other significant levels. This is discussed in the peer reviewed paper that will be out in four weeks.

The problem for Kansas City is now obvious. We have not one time had a storm come together and be functional. The storm systems are there. But, when you are not in the right spot, then the chance of a twist to the pattern, a stronger storm system is rather low. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen. I have seen patterns that were boring and didn’t have functional storm systems, but then one or two have that twist. We are still waiting here in KC, so be careful as these models come in. If there is truly a strong trend into a storm system, as shown on the NAM model last night, then it will show up on all other models. We have always had one or two models that would show the worst case scenario for us snow enthusiasts, and they have verified every time this season.

The Block Forms By Wednesday

Look at this pattern. My goodness! It is about to get blocked up for a few days. The big upper high finally does form by Wednesday night. This is a strong block over the southeastern part of Greenland. There is another big ridge, a high amplitude ridge forming over the Gulf of Alaska. The entire weather pattern over the Northern Hemisphere is about to be influenced by this blocking. But, how it affects each location is still quite unclear. For Kansas City it means a big warm-up Monday into Wednesday, and then we will see how the block influences the pattern from there. Maybe we get a twist, and maybe we do not. I would say we are due, but this season has had too many frustrations, so I am taking a deep breath for now.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

Today: Sunny with big warm up to near 60 degrees with southwest winds.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a high near 65°

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with a good chance of rain by evening. The rain may change to snow before ending Thursday morning.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com, click on the blog over there, and join in the conversation. Have a great start to the week.