False idols

They are the next one-hit (or maybe no-hit) wonders, writes Brett Thomas, so why do they bother?

There were 8000 hopefuls to begin with. In the past three weeks, that number has been whittled down to 100, then 75, 60 and finally 40. The top 40.

In 16 weeks or so, one contestant will emerge via popular vote as the first Australian Idol. He or she will be assigned a manager, given a record contract with the multinational company BMG and launched into the world as the very latest, hot-off-the-presses, next big thing in pop.

If recent history is any indication, the career trajectory of the new "star" will then take the following course.

A debut single launched on the back of the Australian Idol TV show, screening on Channel Ten from July 27, will be a chart success as the performer benefits from a ratings winner and lots of free publicity. A second single, released when the hype has died down a little, won't fare quite as well. A debut album, which will be savaged by the serious music media as "manufactured" and "plastic", no matter how good it actually is, will then die a quick death.

A year later and the artist will be appearing in the "Where Are They Now?" bit that accompanies the story about Australian Idol II. If it's a young woman, she may have picked up the odd Ralph cover shoot; if it's a bloke ... well, good luck with the busking, mate.");document.write("

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It's an extremely cynical view, to be certain, but one that has unfortunately been proven three years running by the winners of Popstars, the first of a crop of brilliantly devised, internationally syndicated reality shows that try to make instant stars out of nobodies.

While TV shows such as Popstars and its Australian Idol successor make for great viewing with their lashings of real, unscripted pathos and drama, the reality is that the performers who emerge have very little chance of music career longevity.

Thrust into a pop world that's already transient at best, and saddled with the dreaded "manufactured" tag, they're in and out of the industry as quickly as the people who voted them in have moved on to the next reality show.

"You can't even name anyone from Scandal'Us [winners of Popstars II], and what about that guy, the solo Popstar? Where's Scott Cain now?" asked music industry analyst Phil Tripp. "He's on the Mickey Mouse channel."

Tripp quoted some startling figures that underline the ephemeral nature of the music industry. Last year in America there were 12,534 debut albums released. Of those, 23 broke even. "Also last year in America," he said, "25 people were killed by lightning."

Tripp had an unlikely ally in Mark Holden, the former 1970s pop star turned hit songwriter, who now helps guide the career of local singer Vanessa Amorosi. Holden is one of the three judges on Australian Idol [with singer Marcia Hines and BMG marketing general manager Ian Dickson] and has concerns about what becomes of the eventual winner once the TV cameras are switched off.

"None of the artists that Warner Bros developed through Popstars has sold any records," Holden said. "Not one of those is profitable. Some of the people from Bardot have legs, but none of the records has been profitable. Scott Cain was over before he started. It's an issue, it's a real issue.

"Record companies are not interested in artist development. It's something they don't understand; it's too difficult for them. They want to get it right first time, otherwise they just move on to the next one.

"[Australian Idol] is marketed as a TV show, and what comes from it you'll have to see. We'll have to see what records get made, we'll have to see what artists come out of it."

Australian Idol co-executive producer Greg Beness was keen to point out the difference between his show and those that have preceded it. "I'm hoping the Australian public will see someone who has a natural ability," he said.

"Those other shows manufactured the acts -we're saying 'There's the stage, show us who you are'. It's a different kettle of fish.

"We are not teaching them how to dance, we're not saying, 'Here, wear this because it shimmers', we're not saying, 'Quick, show a bit of body line because the kids love it'."

But, for however long the Australian music industry judges credible talent by the number of years it has spent playing the Annandale Hotel, it may be a moot point.