Volume or niche – the beer market needs the right answers

In 2013 the world beer market is set to exceed 2 billion hectoliters for the first time ever. Beer is continuing to boom – at least if you take a global perspective. But even the regions where the beer market is stagnating or even shrinking nevertheless offer new and interesting opportunities. All these markets need the right solutions, from manufacture through to sales and marketing. The place to find those solutions is at drinktec, the "World?s Leading Trade Fair for the Beverage and Liquid Food Industry", between September 16 and 20, 2013, in Munich.

Growth in volumes will continue to be a feature of the global beer market for many, many years to come, according to the market researchers. The simple reason is that worldwide per-capita consumption is still below 30 liters. Canadean, for example, is predicting that between 2009 and 2015 the world beer market will have grown by 2.8 percent per year on average. For Asia, Canadean is forecasting an annual average increase of 5 percent for the same period. These British market researchers also predict an annual rise of 5 percent for the African beer market, 3 percent for South America and 5.5 percent for the Middle East. For Eastern Europe their forecast is a rise of only around 1.5 percnet, and, for North America, even lower, at only 0.5 percent. For Western Europe, Canadean is even predicting a small decline. As growth hot spots, they have identified Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Angola and India, some of which will see double-digit increases.

China soon to represent one quarter of the world beer market The market researchers at Euromonitor come to similar conclusions. In the period from 2011 to 2016 they are expecting the strongest expansion, with rates of around or even higher than 10 percent in India and Iran. The fastest growing volume markets, they predict, will be China and Brazil, both growing at around 5 percent per year. However, the markets in the US, Russia and Germany, they say, will probably shrink by around 0.5 to 1.5 percent per year. This strong growth in the Asian markets, says Canadean, means that in 2015 around 40 percent of the world?s beer output will be brewed in this region. For many years now the Asian market has been dominated by China, which Euromonitor sees as reaching 624 million hectoliters by the end of 2015. In other words: In just a few years time, China will be accounting for at least one quarter of the world beer market, and it will then be at least twice as big as the number two, the US. Germany: Faint blossoming of interest in specialty beers In the stagnating or shrinking traditional beer markets, such as the US and Germany, there is, however, an interesting trend: the increase in craft beers and specialty beers. According to GfK ConsumerScan beer demand in German households fell by 0.2 percent in 2012. The value of beer purchases, by contrast, rose by 0.4 percent. This shows therefore that the consumer is basically willing to spend more on beer, a theory supported by the development in the price classes for 0.5-liter returnable beer crates, according to statistics gathered by GfK. The only clear increase in a year-on-year comparison 2011/2012 was seen here in the €13 and over segment, from 13 to 16 percent. Admittedly, this is only a faint blossoming, the German market in 2012 having in fact trended downwards. According to the German Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt – Destatis), year-on-year beer sales fell by 1.8 percent, or 1.8 million hectoliters to 96.5 hectoliters of beer. In 2013, too, no end is in sight to this trend: In the first quarter German beer sales dropped a further 4.3 percent as compared to the same period last year. USA demonstrates the potential of craft brewers For some time now the US has been demonstrating the power of specialist beers – the "craft brewers" movement started out there and has been very popular. According to the Brewers Association, in 2012 this segment saw volumes increase by 15 percent and monetary value by 17 percent. In 2011 the rises were 13 and 15 percent respectively. In total the craft brewer segment in the overall US beer market in 2012 accounted for 6.5 percent by volume and 10.2 percent in monetary value. This success story is even more notable when you consider the number of brewing facilities in the US: In the 1970s there were only 89 in the entire country, but now that figure is 2,403 – with 2,347 of them being brew pubs, microbreweries or regional craft breweries. drinktec presents raw materials, technology and expertise for all brewers The world beer market – interesting for its increasing segmentation – will be covered in full at drinktec 2013, from micro to global brewers, and right across the spectrum from raw materials and process technology to packaging and marketing. For example, the first day of the show in the drinktec Forum will be dedicated to beer. "German beer – fit for the future? Risks and chances" is the question posed by Peter Hahn from the Deutscher Brauer- Bund. Small and medium-sized companies should make a note of the lecture by J?rgen Nordmann from St?rtebeker Braumanufaktur, who will be speaking about "Strategy options for medium-sized breweries in a declining beer market". The new Innovation Flow Lounge (IFL) in which attention focuses entirely on marketing, is looking at the subject of beer in its program for the first day of the show. IFL partner Krones is sending its expert Charles Schmidt to talk about "The power of social media". And "With hops to the top" is the title of a talk by Stephan J. Barth, Managing Director of the Barth-Haas Group. On the second day of the show, the winners in the "European Beer Star" competition, one of the world?s most prestigious beer awards, will be offered for tasting. And on the Sunday before drinktec opens, the World Beer Sommelier Championships will be held and the winner crowned in the exhibition halls in Munich. Also at drinktec 2013 there are two more hotspots for brewers from all over the world: The Brewers Meeting Point, held in Hall B1 in cooperation with the Bayerischer Brauerbund. One of the attractions here is the chance to take part in exclusive beer samplings. The other hotspot is the Craft Brewers Lounge in Hall A5. Here, European brewers can meet up with and talk to members of the US Brewers Association. All of which adds up to many good "beery" reasons to visit drinktec 2013!