2016 now looks dead set to become the hottest year on record

This year is set to be the hottest year ever recorded globally, beating 2015’s record temperatures, the World Meteorological Organisation has said.

Global temperatures this year are approximately 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels and 0.88 °C above the average for 1961-1990, which the WMO uses as a reference period, provisional figures show.

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As a result, 2016 is on track to be the hottest year in records dating back to the 19th century, and 16 of the 17 hottest years on record will have occurred in the 21st century.

“Another year, another record,” said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas. “The high temperatures we saw in 2015 are set to be beaten in 2016.”

The provisional assessment by the WMO has been released to inform the latest round of UN climate talks in Morocco which are focusing on implementing the world’s first comprehensive climate treaty, the Paris Agreement.

But the election of Donald Trump as the next US president has raised concerns about the international fight against climate change, which he has previously described as a hoax created by the Chinese to make American manufacturing uncompetitive.

The WMO assessment, uses several international datasets including one from the Met Office and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit.

But preliminary data for October suggests temperatures remain high enough for 2016 to be on track for the title of hottest year on record, beating 2015.

This year has also seen record-breaking concentrations of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as well as melting ice, coral reefs bleaching in the face of hot oceans, above-average sea level rise and extreme weather.

“Many other Arctic and sub-Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska and north-west Canada were at least 3 °C above average. We are used to measuring temperature records in fractions of a degree, and so this is different.”

“Three record-breaking years for global temperature would be remarkable,” says Peter Stott, of the Met Office. “As the El Niño wanes, we don’t anticipate that 2017 will be another record-breaking year in the instrumental record.”

But 2017 was still likely to be warmer than any year prior to the last two decades because of the underlying extent of man-made global warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, he says.

Carbon emissions stall

Global carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels have seen “almost no growth” for three years in a row, says a new study.

Emissions did not increase in 2015 and are expected to rise only 0.2 per cent in 2016, according to new data from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the Global Carbon Project.

The figures, which come after a rise of just 0.7 per cent in emissions in 2014, are a clear break from the average 2.3 per cent annual carbon dioxide increase from burning fossil fuels in the decade to 2013.
The stalling growth in emissions comes despite global economic growth exceeding 3 per cent a year, and is mainly down to China burning less coal.

Researchers suggest it could mark a permanent shift away from the long-term rapid growth trend in climate change pollution, and are consistent with pledges made by countries on cutting emissions up to 2030.

But the stalling of growth in emissions is not enough to limit temperatures to “well below” 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, a target which countries have committed to in order to avert dangerous climate change.

“This third year of almost no growth in emissions is unprecedented at a time of strong economic growth,” says Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre at UEA. “This is a great help for tackling climate change but it is not enough. Global emissions now need to decrease rapidly, not just stop growing.”

Piers Forster, professor of climate change at the University of Leeds, says the findings “reveal the first green shoots of success for global climate policy”.

“Climate mitigation policies around the world are beginning to deliver,” he says. “Hopefully emissions have peaked.”

Glen Peters, of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, who co-authored the analysis, says: “Emissions growth in the next few years will depend on whether energy and climate policies can lock in the new trends, and importantly, raise the ambition of emissions pledges to be more consistent with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.”