Dan Steinbock

Dan Steinbock

About the author:

Dr Steinbock is an internationally recognized expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among all major advanced economies and large emerging economies. In addition to advisory activities (www.differencegroup.net), he is affiliated with India China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore). For more, please see http://www.differencegroup.net/. Research Director of International Business at India China and America Institute (USA) and Visiting Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore).

The proposed Asian infrastructure bank could galvanize growth in emerging Asia and boost lingering global recovery. According to Western media, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is to rival the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In reality, the idea of the AIIB was put forward more than a year ago; not to undermine either the World Bank or the ADB, but to deliver the promise that both have failed to deliver – sustained growth in emerging Asia.

Hong Kong’s lingering turmoil suggests that its economic future is not assured. Recently, the Chinese People’s Daily accused Washington for colluding with Occupy Central protest organizers to try and foment a “color revolution.” In the West, the charge has been downplayed. Today, Hong Kong must cope with political, economic and external risks.

The Chinese economy is on track to replace the U.S. as the world’s largest economy – measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) – by the end of this year, according to a recent World Bank report. But while emerging economies are catching up with advanced economies, but differences of living standards remain far apart.

Recent demonstrations in Taiwan against a trade deal with China reflect the public’s deep mistrust with the mainland. Yet Taiwan needs these trade deals to sustain its economy, not just with China, but with the rest of Asia.

Thanks to its strategic geopolitics, Bangladesh is now being courted by both China and the United States. It is a historical moment when right economic policies, appropriate investment levels and favorable demographics could unleash a period of growth and prosperity. However, with wrong policies, Bangladesh could suffer a new era of stagnation, poverty and fall behind its regional peers.

To navigate the U.S. away from the huge monetary stimulus, the Federal Reserve has initiated tapering. But in an integrating world, the emerging economies, especially India, China and Brazil, will see collateral liquidity damage. How will the Fed enforce its mandate? How will central banks in emerging markets react?

For a year, President Xi Jinping and Premier have talked about the Chinese dream, while outlining massive reforms to pave the way for the realization of the dream. As the Two Sessions took place in Beijing, China’s leaders took a hard look at the future challenges. Is the Chinese dream still reachable?

After half a century of isolation, Myanmar’s immediate challenge is to sustain reforms, boost foreign investment and diversify its industrial base. Unlike other Asian tigers, it must cope with a far more challenging international environment.

Only a year ago, Nigeria’s economic dream – to be one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2020 – still seemed reachable. Today, domestic threats are increasing, while the international environment is far more challenging.

March 14 will mark one year since Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang took the reins of China’s leadership and the economy. Xi and his team have officially given themselves until 2020 to achieve "decisive" results with reforms. How has progress been so far?

Can India integrate more fully into the global economy and energize its trade by joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Or will negotiating an entry require significant concessions, not necessarily in India’s interests? These outcomes will depend on how TPP framework itself develops – inclusively or exclusively.

Since the 1950s, the United States and the West have set the standards for prosperity, productivity and innovation. But the share of Asia in global R&D is climbing; and based on recent statistics,the region could soon displace the West as the global R&D driver.

The dramatic ascent of the emerging nations in education and skills reflect the broader new deal in global innovation. Only a few years ago, leading policymakers and senior executives in the West believed that China, along with other emerging markets, would remain the “factory of the world” for years to come, and India its “back-office.” It was a convenient fantasy – but that’s all it ever was.

When the Chinese mainland was insulated, Hong Kong thrived; and it continued to thrive for years after reforms and opening-up were launched in the mainland. Now, as the mainland's economic development finally catches up, the latter fears becoming marginalized. The city-state must ponder its next political path, with its economic future at the crossroads.

Australia may be a nation whose identity lies firmly in the west, but its geo-political and geo-economic circumstances are shaped in large part by its location in the east. With the economy slowing, can Australia continue to hedge between U.S. strategic opportunities and Chinese economic gains?

Today, the UK is seen as the most open Western economy to Chinese investment. Britain on the one hand needs Chinese trade and investment to reinvigorate its economy, while the Chinese sees London as crucial to its efforts to internationalise the yuan and open a financial gateway to Europe.