Three weeks in and it has been a pretty dull affair so far, mostly because among the “fans” the pretty alliance are getting their come-uppance a lot earlier than they do in most seasons, the “favorites” aren’t going to Tribal Council and Shamar is still shouting a lot. I’m looking forward to the merge already, as the tribe that is down is always the one with the most opportunity. But how do things stand this week?

Fans

1. Sherri

It seems more obvious to viewers after last week that Sherri is in control of her alliance, being the one to bring Shamar back from quitting and the one Julia seeks out to advise that Shamar blabbed their split vote plan to Hope. It seems obvious to everyone playing the game too.

2. Mike

Mike was non-existent last week, except for a “Shamar was shouting at everybody.” Aside from Sheri/Shamar interview, he has the only sub-alliance we’ve seen. No reason to move him from #2.

3. Julia

I’ve ranked Julia higher this week just because she seems more secure in the game than Laura. I would love to know what was really said in her conversation with Shamar where he shouted at her, and why that conversation even happened. Did he just look at the next person to shout at? Was he responding to something provocative she said, like “Let’s just stop shouting and all get some sleep?”

4. Laura

I’ve ranked Laura a little lower this week because of her paranoia at maybe getting voted out because of her performance in the immunity challenge, and her willingness to ally with the pretty alliance (which she never followed through on). Her insecurity means she doesn’t think she is in a strong position with her alliance.

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5. Matt

If the “fans” get rid of Shamar, Matt is suddenly in with a good chance of going to the end. His chances of winning? Not so good.

6. Shamar

While he is difficult to listen to, Shamar is the most interesting of the “favorites”. Watch him in Tribal Council. He will provide these amazingly concise answers that get right to the nub of what is being discussed. I don’t think there’s been a Survivor ever with this combination of being really good at telling it like it is and being willing to share it at Tribal Council, without any concessions to jury management.

But back at camp when he does the same thing and gets ignored, he’ll just get angry and shout at everyone. He can clearly control himself where others provide structure by listening to him – like at Tribal Council or when Sherri is talking to him. But without that, he loses it completely. He’s not great at listening to anyone else either.

Anyway, half his alliance wants him out and the other half know they can’t trust him, so he’s #6.

7. Reynold

Reynold has an idol, but what is he going to do with it? If the “fans” lose another immunity challenge, they are poised to split the vote between Eddie and Reynold to flush the idol. Barring a tribe switch, his best chance is to put together a vote-out-Shamar alliance with Laura, Julia and Matt and go from there – though once Shamar is gone, why would the alliance need to continue?