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Bubble Watch: Why recent losses won't always deter an at-large bid

Days until Selection Sunday: 2 The big picture: The recency effect really is a wonderful thing, and there are few better times than in the few days leading into Selection Sunday to see its impact on how

The recency effect really is a wonderful thing, and there are few better times than in the few days leading into Selection Sunday to see its impact on how college basketball teams are perceived.

What if I told you there was a team with an overall strength of schedule ranked second in the country, possessed five top-50 victories and was 11-9 against the top 100 in the RPI? Chances are, that would sound pretty good, and look even better in comparison to what else is floating around the at-large pool.

Now, let's add another element: This team was once 15-1, but since Jan. 29 has gone 5-11.

The verdict might not be quite so pleasant, but there's something important to remember: Those games in November and January count just the same as contests in February and March.

That's why it would be shocking if Minnesota — the team described above — didn't find its way into the NCAA tournament, and in a reasonably comfortable manner.

Now, that's not meant to be an endorsement of the Golden Gophers' chances of accomplishing much once they reason the field of 68. Thursday's 51-49 loss to Illinois was just the latest feeble offensive performance for Tubby Smith's team, and Minnesota isn't likely to improve dramatically in the next week.

But based on the selection criteria, which incorporates things like strength of schedule and quality wins but does not include recent performance, the Golden Gophers shouldn't be sweating entering Selection Sunday.

On the hot seat: Kentucky

The Wildcats are in an unenviable position as they begin play in the Southeastern Conference tournament.

Never mind Nerlens Noel's season-ending injury last month. Never mind that Kentucky remains in a precarious situation. Never mind it owns only two top-50 victories, and both came at home.

Kentucky has three games to make an impression. And the first one, a quarterfinal against Vanderbilt (15-16) can do the Wildcats little good beyond getting another game and could inflict a knockout blow to their NCAA profile.

It's not as if playing Arkansas would have helped that much, but a top-100 opponent would have been slightly more useful. Instead, Kentucky is in preservation mode rather than in position to build on its profile.

Nightly winners:

Teams that took a step forward on Thursday...

Charlotte: With the help of three technical fouls on Richmond in the final five seconds, the 49ers' ultra-slim at-large hopes survived for another day.

Iowa State: Book a spot in the field for the Cyclones, who rallied from a double-digit deficit in the final eight minutes to stun Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Iowa State has won three straight — including two outside of Ames — to solidify its postseason credentials.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish might have managed to escape an 8/9 game thanks to a mild upset of Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals. Notre Dame gets a third game against Louisville in Friday's semifinals. Do I hear six overtimes for the Irish and Cardinals?

Nightly losers:

Teams that took a step back Wednesday...

Arkansas: The Razorbacks struggled all year when taken out of their natural habitat of Fayetteville. A loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament drops Arkansas to 1-12 outside the state and ends any glimmer of hope of reaching the NCAA tournament.

Baylor: The Bears couldn't follow up on their upset of Kansas, spotting Oklahoma State a 20-point lead, erasing it and then watching the Cowboys' Phil Forte make two foul shots with 2.9 seconds left to seal a 74-72 victory in the Big 12 tournament. That'll do it for the Bears' NCAA hopes.

Louisiana Tech: From unbeaten in conference play to three straight losses in an eight-day span, few teams have collapsed quite like the Bulldogs. They'll head to the NIT after falling to Texas-San Antonio in the Western Athletic Conference quarterfinals.

Résumé worth dissecting: Alabama

The top-100 record (7-7) is actually decent for a borderline team, but there's not much else about Alabama's profile that stands out. It can boast it beat Kentucky, and that's swell, but it also split with Tennessee and lost to Mississippi --- not to mention Dayton, Mercer, Tulane and Auburn. Maybe the Tide can sneak in as an at-large if it makes a run, but its chances will fizzle with a loss in the SEC quarterfinals.

NIT-bound: Xavier

You can't be great every year (well, unless you're Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Michigan State and maybe a few other select programs), a lesson the Musketeers learned all too well this season.

Xavier went 17-14, its latest setback a 58-57 defeat against Saint Joseph's in the Atlantic 10 first round. It was wrenching at both ends of the floor, from watching the Hawks' Langston Galloway hit two free throws with 1.4 seconds left to the Musketeers' Isaiah Philmore missing an open layup at the buzzer.

Few teams reload as efficiently as Chris Mack's bunch, but the early departures of Mark Lyons (Arizona) and Dez Wells (Maryland) was just too much. Instead, X will miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2005 and only the second time in the last 13 years.

It speaks volumes about the Musketeers' history that they still seemed like a viable threat to make a deep run in the A-10 tournament. That didn't happen, but Xavier will be in the mix for a NIT bid when that field is announced on Sunday.

On deck:

N.C. State vs. Virginia (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ACC Network): The Cavaliers and their wacky résumé might be in with a victory. They might need to do more. But even ardent Virginia fans would acknowledge the importance of winning an ACC quarterfinal against a top-30 team.

Butler vs. La Salle (2:30 p.m. ET): The Explorers should be safe, but you can't be fully sure. Beating Butler would make La Salle the latest team to thrive in a "remove all doubt" game this week.

Alabama vs. Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): Is it an elimination game? That's certainly the case for the Crimson Tide, and it very well might be for Tennessee as well.

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU/SEC Network): The Wildcats' at-large hopes rest on making something of this weekend. They won't see the weekend unless they can handle the Commodores in Nashville.

Iowa vs. Michigan State (8:55 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network): The Hawkeyes at least have chances to make noise. They'll have to contend with the always stingy Spartans in Chicago in the Big Ten quarterfinals.

Massachusetts vs. Temple (9 p.m. ET): The Minutemen still have work to do after beating George Washington if they're going to have any shot at an at-large. Hope still exists, but it won't with a loss to Temple.

Mississippi vs. Missouri (10 p.m. ET, ESPNU/SEC Network): The Rebels' tournament chances dissipate if they can't collect a second top-50 victory — even if it comes against the only top-50 team they beat in the first place. This is the first of a few steps Ole Miss needs this weekend.

Stat of the day:

The top four seeds of the Mid-Eastern Athletic tournament are already gone --- and the semifinals aren't until tonight. Regular-season champ Norfolk State and second seed North Carolina Central went out on Wednesday, followed by third-seeded Hampton and fourth-seeded Savannah State on Thursday. Fifth-seeded Morgan State (16-14) is the presumptive favorite --- if that can be said for a tournament already ravaged by surprise after surprise.

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About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' bracket specialist for the 2013 NCAA tournament. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.

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