I guess before I begin, it makes sense to define what successful is to me. Last year, I would have said a winning record would be successful and a playoff spot would have been icing on the cake. If you would have told me that the Bears would finish second overall in the NFC, and win the division, and be playing for the NFC Championship, I probably would have told you to take a reality pill or 2 and call me in the morning.

It goes to show you anything can happen in the NFL. A few years back, the Bengals, like the Bears were picked to finish last in the division. They surprised everyone. Last year, the Cowboys were supposed to easily cruise to the NFCE division title. They finished last. Last year the Packers were supposed to easily win the division. Yet, they barely lucked into the playoffs with help from other teams losing and an untimely Mike Martz heave-a-thon.

So this year, I would say 10 wins for this team would be successful. Anything less is just hitting around expectations. Most analysts have them finishing at or below .500. Most have them finishing behind the Lions. Clark Judge (who picked them to finish last in the division in 2010) has them finishing behind the Lions as well. So I’m saying 10 and 6 would be a good season. Of course, a SB win would be incredible...

In no particular order:

#1 – Stay healthy.

The Bears did have some injuries last year. But most were short term and low impact. Cutler, Briggs, Pisa, Wright, and Chris Williams all missed games. The key was that the injuries were relatively spread out, and only the Briggs injury seemed to impact the team as a whole.

#2 – Red Zone offense success

In a word, we were pathetic. Especially in goal line situations. In fact, we went 0-12 in goal line situations to start the season. We've looked less than stellar so far in pre-season. But, we’ve kept a full back on the roster and added Speath. We've also grown on the line (averaging about 20 lbs per player more). But the biggest add is Barber. I think Martz needs to mix it up from the 20, but when we get to the goal we need to punch the defense in the face.

Some guys are expected to be special teamers. Some are expected to compete for starting positions. Some are expected to see a ton of playing time, in critical situations. All are expected to contribute immediately.

Will Ta’ufo’ou – FB – Was on the practice squad last year so not new to team. But not only is he new to 53 man roster, he also brings back a position we did not have last year.

#4 - Time for this offense to click.

Pre-season records are meaningless. But the pre-season eye test and stats are not. Coaches are looking at everything and just about every stat other than W/L in preseason. Cutler has played about 4 quarters this pre-season. All came against our opponents first team defenses. I'd give Cutler an A. He has put up 350 yards averaging 8 yards per pass. He’s looked poised, quick, and confident in this offense.

As important, the offense as a whole has done very well overall. We have owned the TOP in all 4 games (averaging almost 34 minutes). This success is directly linked to our ability to covert 3rd downs (40%) and in general, keep the ball moving – with 93 first downs total. And before you start in on the “it’s just pre-season” noise, know we held opponents to just 55 total first downs on about 33%.

The point is, this offense is showing signs of maturing. It could really click. And if it does, it’s going to be a fun ride.

#5 – Offensive line MUST play better than 2010.

Quite possibly the most important key... But, let’s not beat this dead horse to death. I'll be quick. We sucked in 2010. 53 sacks. The line is probably the main reason we did not go to the SB. We’re much bigger up front, but younger. I keep saying, if we can average 2 or less sacks per game, we will be in playoffs. One thing is for sure, we look like we have a pretty solid short yardage group here.

In a continuation of my earlier blog, which discussed 3 “No Brainers” for the 2010 season, I have identified 3 “not so obvious” keys to the Bears success. I decided to wait to post this until after the draft as several pieces relating to my Keys had to align with the players selected:

#4) The Defense MUST cause A LOT of Turnovers.

In 2006 the Bears defense caused a league leading 44 turnovers. 44! They were second only to the Baltimore Ravens in Interceptions with 24, and lead the league by far in fumble recoveries with 20. In addition, they forced 32 fumbles. There were several key guys in on this: Nathan Vasher was an intercepting machine, Charles Tillman was a fumble causing superstar, and even Brian Urlacher was involved with 3 INT’s.

Contrast this to the 2009 Bears who only forced 28 total turnovers. They were a negative 6 overall. To really highlight what this means: the 2006 Bears put the ball back in the hands of their offense a whopping 16 times more than the 2009 Bears did. That is 1 extra crack at a TD per game. Consider these stats:

-> The Packers ended last year with a +24 TO ratio, most coming after their slow start. They won 7 of their last 8 games. -> The packers lost to the Cardinals in the playoffs 51 t0 45. They also lost the turnover battle 3 to 1.-> Historically, the team who wins the turnover battle wins the game 72% of the time-> In 2009, the top five teams in TO ratio had a combined record of 57-23-> In the Cardinals amazing run to the SB in 2008, they had 13 takeaways. The only game the Cards didn’t win the turnover battle? The Super Bowl, when they gave it away twice and got it just once.

We know under Mike Martz system, Jay Cutler will be throwing a lot of timed patterns. Unlike Turners system, Jay will be doing a lot less reacting post snap and a lot more “trusting” in the system and letting it fly. This “could” lead to more INT’s. But as I noted in Part 1, that is not always the norm (as is erroneously reported). However, the key still remains the same, get the ball back, and put it in the hands of the team that should be high-flying and able to score – and that is the offense.

#5) Our defense MUST be Better on 3rd and Long:

Little known fact about 2009: The Bears defense was in the top 8 in yards allowed on first and second down. What this meant, is that statistically, over the course of the season, the Bears were able to put their opponents offense into 3rd and Long situations pretty often.

As I mentioned earlier, in the Cover 2, THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT. You want to force the other teams offense into known passing situations, and switch to a nickel package and crush them. In 2006, this is when a majority of our interceptions occurred. In 2009, the exact opposite: This is when we gave up the majority of our yardage. The Bears were in the bottom qtr of the league in 3rd and Long.

A lot of this had to do with 3 factors: 1) No pass rush with only the front four, 2) Hunter Hillenmeyer had an inability to get back into coverage and take away the deep middle “hole”, and 3) Our Free safeties were never in the imx to break up the pass. Kevin Payne was repeatedly beat, and Al Afalava was too inexperienced to handle the Free Safety position.

What this all added up to was the Bears Defense was on the field a lot longer than they should have been, and the offense was sitting on the sidelines helpless. We lost the TOP battle by an average of 3+ minutes per game. This means our defense was on the field almost an ENTIRE GAME longer than our offense over the 2009 season. Compare that to the Vikings whose offense was on the field 5:21 more per game or a total of an HOUR AND A HALF longer than their defense.

Many things have gotten better for 2010: With Urlacher back, Julius Peppers in to push the passer, and Tommie Harris looking late in the season like a man possessed, the first of the 2 major issues could be solved. The Bears have acquired a talented and hard hitting free safety in Major Wright, as well as bringing back a well versed and excellent Safety in Chris Harris.

The main point all Bears fans should be noting is that the problems we faced on 3rd downs seems to be being addressed by the Bears.

#6) We need to shock the NFL.

This one may seem obscure, but let me explain. In 2009, pre-season, the Bears were actually picked to be a contender. The main reason was a very “blanket” statement that went like this:

“The Bears were 9-7 in 2008 with Kyle Orton as the QB, imagine how much better they’re going to be with a real QB in Jay Cutler….”

The Bears were picked to win the Superbowl by Sports Illustrated. They were picked to compete for the Division by almost every major publication. Even the NFL thought the Bears would be dominant as they received no less than 5 Night games ( (3) Sunday night games versus the Packers, Falcons, and Eagles, (1) Monday night game versus the Vikings, and (1) Thursday night game versus the 49ers). Not only that, but the Bears also played (5) 3:15 late start games.

In 2010, the bears did make a splash with the Peppers signing. But the NFL has mostly forgotten about the Bears. We have the obligatory Monday night games against the Packers and Vikings, and a Sunday and Thursday night game. But ALL the other games are nooners. The Bears are also already pre-season picks to finish 3rd in the division. Basically, the Bears have been written off.

The Bears need to come out and catch people looking the other way. We open against the Lions and we need to prove that even though the they got better in the offseason too, we still dominate. Then we play a Cowboys team in Dallas that has already looked past us an on to their in-state matchup with the Texans. Then we have the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, who we played EXTREMLY well against last season, but owe some payback to at home. Finally, we round out the 1st qtr of the season on the Road against a Giants team that has a lot of unaddressed issues.

We need to be 3-1 or 4-0 after the first 4 weeks and we need key wins Versus the Packers and Dallas. That will send a message and that will shock the NFL.

While it’s easy to play the “I told you so” game after the season is over, it’s a little more difficult to pin-point prior to the season.

I’ll be the first to admit, I was pretty excited about Jay Cutler coming to Chicago. For years, all we had been hearing (I’m taking a shot at the media) was how the team was “lacking just one thing: a QB.” And now we had one…

I was able to easily gloss over all the safety issues we had with one quick comment: “With Jay Cutler running the offense, we will not lead the league in 3 and outs, thereby making our defense better…”

How completely wrong I was. I think it’s important to note that in 3 of the 4 blow-outs last year, (Vikings G1, Bengals, and Cardinals) Jay Cutler had about as much to do with losing as my 84 year old neighbor who for some reason likes to walk around outside in his boxers, black socks and sandals.

With that, I want to lay out my top 3 “No Brainers” to winning in 2010 (Part 1), and my 3 “Not so Obvious Keys to winning.” (Part 2)

Top 3 “No Brainers”

#1) Brian Urlacher must play at pro-bowl caliber.So, yea, this seems like a no brainer. But, the truth is I have seen a ton of people on these boards saying that Lance Briggs is the Bears best defensive player. And, while I would maybe agree that he has been “playing the best statistically at his position” for the last few seasons, there is no way in the world he is the team’s best defensive player. And he’s certainly not the most important player on D.

The Middle Line Backer position is far and away the most important player on the defense in the Cover 2. Other than calling out offensive sets and positioning the D to handle, Urlacher must be able to shed the lead block and stop the rush between the tackles, and also fill a gap when the ball is run outside the Tackles. But more importantly, he needs to be fast enough and smart enough to know when it’s play action, and get back into coverage and plug the Middle deep hole. Urlacher does this better than ANY MLB I have ever seen.

However, he was hurt in 2007, and recovering from neck surgery in 2008. We all know what happened in 2009. The last time you can say he played great was 2006. We need a healthy and charged Urlacher. We need him at 2006 levels.

#2) Tommie Harris must be a force.What I would love is by game 3 or 4 in 2010, we have not heard one comment like these (actual):

“This guy gets a fat contract and ever since then has just acted like a big baby !! what a punk!! Just shut up and play ball!! Gees..”“Tommie Harris is a joke and a waste of space. ANYBODY we put in there instead of him is an upgrade. My mother could play better.”“Harris is the biggest disapointement ever.”“I’d trade Tommie for a 7th rounder and a box of doughnuts right now”

I chose the word “force” specifically because I honestly don’t think he HAS to play at 2006 pre-leg-ripped-in-half levels. But he does need to be at least as good as he looked in the win over the Vikings. In that game he had a measly 3 tackles and 0 sacks. But, what is not being told in the stats is the pressure he was getting up the middle and how the Vikings had to double team him most of the second half. With wild cards at the other DT position and RDE, Harris needs to be the other guy people worry about besides Julius Peppers. If both of these guys can pull constant double teams, create havoc, and disrupt the QB, we should see our secondary play much better and be able to take advantage of a lot of bad passes.

#3 Mike Martz and Cutler MUST meld.It has been taken now as “fact” that Mike Martz teams throw a lot of interceptions. It is also taken as fact that Cutler throws more INT’s than TD’s. Well, I want to dispel both of these” facts”. They are exaggerations started by fans of teams who lost both guys. AKA Jilted Lovers.

For starters: in 1999, Kurt Warner threw 41 TD’s to 13 INTs under Martz. In 2000, Warner and Trent Green combined for 5500 yards (5500 yards!!!), and a 36 to 22 TD to INT ratio. In 2001, Warner threw for 4800 yards and a 36 to 22 TD to INT ratio. My point: That’s 113 TD’s to 57 INTS over 3 years with Martz. A smart QB in Martz’ system can have a 2 to 1 TD to INT Ratio. Even Marc Bulger posted a 95 to 59 TD to INT ratio under Martz’ system.

Cutler has throw 81 TD’s versus 63 INT’s over his career. That’s a plus 19. Not great, but considering 26 of those INT’s came last year, I think we can surely look through the B.S. and see potential.

Martz QB’s over the last 10 years have averaged almost 4500 yards per year and about 280 per game. Cutler has average 3900 per year (excluding his 1st year when he only played in 5 games) and 245 yards per game.

I could honestly deal with a 4500 36/18 year from Cutler, I'd kill for a 5500 41/13 year…

(Little known fact about Mike Martz: In 1998 he was the QB coach for the Redskins and helped a little known QB who was selected 222 overall in the 8th round, named Trent Green to a 3500 yard 23 TD, 11 INT season in 14 Games.)

As many of you know, I am not only an avid Bears fan, I am also a defensive scheme junkie. Last year, during the season, I was often spouting off and criticizing the Bears defensive schemes. Even during the game, I was calling out mismatches pre-snap and I was often right (Annoyingly so to those sitting near me in the stands)

With the season over, I’d like to identify and illustrate exactly what I believe went wrong in 2009.

First, let’s look at some stats: For the sake of comparison, I will use 2006, a year in which the Bears were dominant. I will refer to these stats later.

Overall Defensive Ranking based on an average of all key Defensive statistics: 19th

* Stats by NFL.Com

Since Lovie Smith took over in 2004, he has utilized the Cover 2 as his primary defense. For those not familiar with the Cover 2, it is essentially a 4-3 zone defense that lines up with 4 Linemen (DE, DT, DT, DE) at the Line of Scrimmage, 3 Linebackers behind the Line (Strong, Middle, Weak) , 2 Corner backs, and 2 Safeties (Strong Side Safety, and Free Safety).

The defense itself can be an extremely effective defense as one its primary function is to force long yardage on 3rd downs and force a team into an obvious pass situation. It does this by allowing the LB’s to move up and play a gap on 1st and 2nd downs (essentially stacking the box with 7) to cancel the rush.

On 3rd down and long situations, the Strong side Linebacker can be replaced by a “Nickel Back” who is essentially another safety, the other 2 Linebackers can play back also essentially having 7 pass defenders.

One of the key reasons teams like to use the Cover 2 as a primary is it’s very easily adaptable pre-snap without changing personnel. There is a negative; when Tampa began using their variation of the Cover 2 (AKA Tampa 2), the defense seemed impenetrable at first. However, coaches were quickly able to exploit “weaknesses” in the zone. The Cover 2 leaves 3 primary weak or soft spots:

1) Deep middle (between) the Free and Strong Safety. 2) Behind the CB on the right 3) Behind the CB on the left.

The positive to these soft spots are that they are all between 10 and 15 yards down field. However, this positive is also a negative as if they are exploited successfully, it is almost always a first down.

To better protect the soft spots, there are 3 extremely critical keys that a defense must have:

1) An extremely strong MLB who also is extremely fast.2) Above-average speed and smart Safeties who can also hit hard.3) An extremely quick pass rush.

Let’s look at how each helps.

MLB:

When looking up the definition of a MLB in a Cover 2 in the dictionary, Brian Urlacher’s picture should be next to the word. His Size to Speed ratio is a perfect match. A MLB must be able to do 3 things well:

1) Identify and annouce the offensive set and line up the D accordingly2) Plug the open “A” gap on a rush up the middle, as well as work side line to side line on rushes off tackle.3) Line up close to the line every down, but be able retreat back into the secondary and plug the soft spot on pass plays.

Urlacher’s speed at linebacker gives him the unique ability to move up to the line, sometimes pretending to bite on a hard count to fake the blitz, and then retreating into pass coverage in the deep middle.

In 2006, Urlacher was not only considered the best MLB, he was also coming off a 2005 year where he was considered the best overall defender in the game.

Many will say Urlacher has lost a step, but the truth is, in 2007 Brian Urlacher was playing hurt, with an injured neck/back. While many “glass half empty” people will say, it’s no big deal to play with a bad back, Steve McMichael (of ’85 Bears fame), is quoted as saying, that “With the way linebackers have to fight off Linemen, Tight Ends, and tackle big Running backs, a linebacker with a bad back can never be expected to play better than 40-50 %.”

In 2008, he missed pre-season conditioning, OTA’s and went easy in training camp recovering from off-season neck surgery and was nowhere near 100%. In 2009, Urlacher reported to camp in shape, injury free and ready to regain his title as best MLB in football. That all came crashing down on a freak, season ending, wrist injury in week 1 against the Packers. My son, a big Urlacher fan, asked me how bad it is to the Bears defense losing #54. My response “The only thing worse to the team would be losing Jay Cutler”. I actually think I was wrong. Losing Urlacher for the season was worse.

The most obvious stat to prove this is going from 31% and 2nd overall on 3rd downs in 2006 to 41% and ranked 27th in 2009. Hunter Hillenmeyer lacked the speed to get back into middle-deep pass coverage on 3rd down, and we were repeatedly torched.

Many will argue that his neck surgeries and back issues are just an excuse. To those who say that, I counter with a very small stat: Greenbay was held scoreless and with no first downs in the first quarter prior to Urlacher going down. After, as one fan noted: ”It was night and day. As soon as Urlacher left the game last night, the middle opened up on both running and pass plays. He was playing like he did during his perennial Pro Bowl years. Depth at linebacker, yes, but replacing one of the best in the league doesn't happen. We've taken a big hit here “.

Safeties:

In a Cover 2 system the safeties are responsible for about 25-30 yards of field deep and half the field across. The Strong Safety will line up on the strong side (Side with the Tight End), and the free will cover the other half. The Free Safety also acts as the second in command on the field. Helping to position the defenders.

The key for the safeties is that they must be fast enough to cover a large portion of the field, all while being able to come up and act as the last line of defense if a run gets through the line and LB’s. And… If a WR gets behind a CB on a sideline deep or middle slant pattern – the other soft spots, their job is to keep that WR in front of them and prevent the big TD play. And… if that WR should happen to catch a pass there, deliver a crushing blow to make him regret doing so, and not want to do it again. Having a strong set of safeties allows your CB’s to take risks, and go for INT’s and strips. Note the 2006 Bears lead the league in combined fumble recoveries and INT’s. The 2009 Bears, not so much…

The Bears have not had an efficient Free Safety since Mike Brown went down and then was traded. Brown was in for a big chunk of the 2006 season. Brian Urlacher often referred to him as the "actual leader of the defense." He was most certainly missed in the Super bowl when Danieal Manning was beat deep by Reggie Wayne on a blown coverage for the Colts first TD.

Over the last few seasons, the Bears have had nothing short of a revolving door at Free Safety. Kevin Payne began the 2009 season at free and was replaced quickly by Al Afalava, then by Danieal Manning. Then By Craig Steltz. Then by Josh Bullocks. Lovie was constantly putting the guy he thought would best fit each game. This, in my opinion was a huge mistake and essentially crippled the second most important defensive position on the field. This while having a middle tier MLB in for the season was enough to destroy the Bears defense.

Pass Rush.

While the Bears 2009 versus Bears 2006 defenses were only 5 sacks less, what was missing was something that was obvious while watching the games. The Bears lacked consistent pressure, especially when rushing only 4.

Keep in mind the Bears Nickel package (3rd downs) is completely based on dropping 7 defenders back, but mandating that you still get pressure with your front 4. Early in the season, Tommie Harris looked slow and hapless. Alex Brown and Adawale Ogunlea looked good early, but faded near the end. By season’s end, almost 1/3 of the Bears sacks were caused by a LB or DB. While it’s fun to watch a safety or linebacker blitz and sack, it leaves an already shaky defensive backfield even more vulnerable - especially against quick armed smart QB's. The other thing that was very frustrating, sacks aside, was seeing QB’s have 5-7 seconds in the pocket to throw. Not only were our front 4 not sacking, we also were not getting decent pressure for most of the season.

In a Cover 2, it takes a receiver between 3 and 4 seconds to hit the soft spot in the zone. With no pass rush, a QB can wait for the receiver to make his move to the weak spot and launch. With a shaky safety, and a slow MLB the Bears were no match for experienced QB’s. Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, etc.. all had field days beating up our Cover 2.

The Bears need to generate 30-35 sacks and constant pressure, especially on 3rd down with their front 4. Doing so will cause disruption, hurries, INT’s, loss of yardage, free their LB's to focus on their intended objectives, and ultimately put the ball back in Jay Cutlers hands.

Outlook for 2010:

MLB:Brian Urlacher is reportedly already near 100%. His wrist injury, although season ending in 2009, was not like blowing out a knee or ankle. He has been bench pressing for over a month now showing confidence in the wrist. He will be back and he will be a force. Additionally, we now have a lot more experience at MLB and I feel that Hunter can come in on certain situations and play the Mike if needed. This will help prolong Urlacher’s season, keep him rested and ready to play 100% right till the last tick of the clock.

Safety:We still do not have an answer here, but Lovie Smith, and Jerry Angelo know it’s an issue that they plan to focus on. The Bears may be targeting Oshiomogho Atogwe (currently with the Rams). If they land him, they are set. If not, my hope is they pick a dedicated Free Safety and stick with him from training camp on. Do not make this a revolving door position. Regardless of the path, the position will be much more experienced and much better in 2010.

Pass Rush:First, two words: Julius Peppers. I look not only for Peppers to get 10-12 Sacks in 2010, I also look for him to cause constant pressure. I also look for teams to be confused as to where to play their TE. If they go strong on Peppers side, look for Alex Brown to improve his 7.5 sack total from a year ago.

Second, Tommie Harris looked good in spurts last year, but near the end of the year began looking like the 2006 Harris. He looked dominant. Coming off a pre-season knee surgery, Harris came into camp out of shape (endurance wise). I look for him to be in condition and a force from day 1.

Lastly, I really like the combination of Israel Idonije and Mark Anderson at the other DT position. (Not sure the Bears agree as they might want them as back-up DE's....) Last year they combined for 5 sacks. I feel 2010 could see this number jump to 7-9 total. If we can get 30-35 sacks from these 5 guys alone, we could start hearing a lot of ’85 Bears analogies…

The stars don’t really have to align. This isn’t magic. We just need Urlacher, Atogwe (or whoever the FS is), Harris and Peppers to play big and the rest of the guys to play to their potential. If they do, look for a top 3-5 defense from Chicago in 2010.