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Kerstin af Jochnick, first deputy governor of Riksbank, in his speech today decides to uphold the position of the remaining members of the Swedish central bank. Jochnick is optimistic about rising inflation trends and the influx of more satisfactory data. In her opinion, Riksbank must have relatively stable land for further increases, which is associated with more substantial inflationary pressures or even higher economic growth.

At the last meeting, the Executive Board of the Riksbank decided to hold the repo rate unchanged at -0.50%. The first rate increase is expected to occur in mid-2018, which is the same assessment as in the Monetary Policy Report in July. The purchases of government bonds will continue during the second half of 2017, as decided by the Executive Board in April.

Let's now take a look at USD/SEK technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the triangle breakout, the price has hit the gray rectangle supply zone between the levels of 8.1854- 8.2252 where it was capped. Ater the reversal, the price has retraced 61% of the previous swing high and bounced from the level of 8.0400. Currently, the price is trading in a narrow zone between the levels of 8.0817 (resistance) and 8.0400 (support) in oversold market conditions.

The event of the day is the September's Fed Meeting Minutes release accompanied by the publication of new projections and the Chairperson Jannet Yellen conference. For this reason, attention will be focused primarily on the distribution of forces between the supporters of the thesis that the weakness of inflation being temporary, and decision makers suggesting a continuation of monetary tightening. The market reaction should not be strong, as the market focuses on the successor of Janet Yellen in the Fed chairman's chair. The leading candidates are Powell and Warsh and the verdict of Trump is to be announced even this coming Friday. The latter would be more favorable to the US Dollar, as Warsh is perceived as a fierce critic of quantitative loosening and a person concerned by excessively loose financial conditions in the economy. Regardless of this factor, economists remain positive about the Dollar. The main driver of its appreciation will be the reflection of inflation indicators.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After breaking out of the Falling Wedge formation, the price has bounced from technical support at the level of 92.95 and currently is trading within the narrow zone between the levels of 92.95 - 93.35. The market conditions are starting to become oversold, but the momentum indicator still points to the downside. In a case of a further downside extension, the next technical support is seen at the level of 92.67.

The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $4.692. The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, held a meeting on Tuesday to discuss cryptocurrencies. It was attended by top regulators including the central bank governor, her deputy, and the finance minister. While Putin acknowledged the risks associated with cryptocurrencies, he stressed the importance to not "build up unnecessary barriers" for new technologies. Anyway, the current technical intraday picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found the fake breakout of the trading range in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a strong downward reaction after the fake breakout and broken bearish flag, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $4.690, $4.613 and $4.490.

Support/Resistance

$4.819 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$4.689 – First target (price action)

$4.613 – Second target (Fibonacci expansion 100%)

$4.490 – Third target (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%)

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3180. According to the 15M time – frame, I found breakout of 3-day upward channel, which is sign that buying looks risky and that sellers started distribution. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of 1.3130, 1.3100 and 1.3030.

Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,289.00. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price has broken the upward channel in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a bearish flag (bearish pattern) in creation, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $1,286.70, $1,282.30 and $1,279.50.

The EUR/USD pair looks to have terminated its first leg labelled as A, within its 3 waves A-B-C corrective rally towards 1.1900/30 levels going forward. A short-term chart view presented here already suggests that the pair should be now looking to drop lower terminating into wave B around 1.1730 levels before turning bullish again. Please note that an interim resistance is just in place at 1.1844 levels and that the pair is poised to break below its counter trend line support as well. Furthermore, note that the previous trend line resistance turned support trend line is now passing near the fibonacci 0.618 support levels of the entire rally between 1.1670 through 1.1844 levels respectively. A simple trading strategy that could be deployed from this point is to sell on rallies.Expecting a quick snap drop towards 1.1720 levels before the larger counter trend rally resumes.

The US Dollar Index has dropped lower pretty close to its support around 93.00 levels as depicted on the short-term chart setup here. The index seems to have terminated its first corrective drop into wave A as labelled here. The most probable wave count should be higher towards wave B, which is also converging with the back side of support turned resistance trend line and the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop between 94.30 through 93.00 levels respectively. Please note that resistance is strong at 94.30 levels, while immediate support is seen through 93.00 levels respectively. A long-term trading strategy has been displayed below and one should follow the short-term trading strategies along the larger trend from tomorrow. Buying on dips seem to be a simple trading strategy here.

Today, the minutes of the September 20 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. The text of the protocol is of interest from the point of view of assessing the financial risks that the US economy may face in the process of tightening financial conditions. The policy of a strong dollar, which is implemented by the US financial and political authorities, has a number of dangerous consequences that the country's economy may face if it is not fully prepared for such cardinal steps. Accordingly, the level of evaluation of internal discussion from the point of view of possible risks can greatly affect the position of the dollar in the short term.

At the moment, the market is based on the fact that the rate will be raised again in December by a quarter of percent. The probability of this event exceeds 90% according to the CME futures market data, while the next increase may take place in March, and not in June, as it was considered absolutely recently.

This morning, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the Fed does not need to wait for signs of accelerating inflation, as the global economy grew "faster than expected," and delays may lead to the fact that in the future will have to raise rates at a faster pace. Kaplan, in fact, again repeated the same set of arguments, which are voiced from time to time by his colleagues, the US is moving towards full employment, inflation will rise anyway, the business climate and consumer confidence improve, and therefore the rates need to be raised immediately.

Fears that the growth of the dollar index will lead to a deterioration of the already bad trade balance, in fact, do not pose a serious problem. From July 2011 to December 2016, the trade-weighted index of the dollar (TWI) grew by 37%, and from such a significant growth one would expect a deterioration in trade. However, the ratio of the trade balance to the volume of trade, which, as a rule, has an inverse relationship to the TWI index, has changed quite insignificantly over the same period, which indicates a weak dependence of trade on the dollar index.

In other words, a strong dollar is unlikely to worsen the US trade position, but it will solve a number of other problems.

Apparently, the US will still begin implementing the policy of a strong dollar, the latest statements by cabinet members set up the markets for this scenario.

On Thursday, the attention will be focused on the dynamics of producer prices in September, which largely preempts data on consumer inflation. Experts expect a slight increase in August, the release of data in line with expectations will support the dollar.

Friday will be quite saturated and can cause increased volatility in the markets. At 13:30 London time, data on consumer inflation and retail sales will be published in September. Retail is expected to show growth of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline a month earlier, and consumer inflation will return to 2.0% after three months of weakness. A little later will be published the preliminary index of Michigan on consumer confidence, in addition, a number of representatives of the Fed will make comments.

The expectations themselves are quite positive, and if the result is not worse, the dollar by the end of the week may resume aggressive growth, primarily against commodity currencies. Markets will proceed from the fact that the scenario implemented by the Fed and the Trump administration will lead to a decrease in demand for risky assets, which gives a chance to strengthen the yen, possibly reducing the week to support 108.40 / 90 in the long term. The growth of EUR/USD in recent days is corrective and limited to resistance at 1.1880, after which the decline may resume.

USD/CHF has been volatile with bullish gains that is expected to come to an end as bearish pressure is already emerging in the market now. USD has been quite mixed amid economic reports for the last few weeks which have helped the American currency to develop a corrective volatile bullish bias. But recent positive economic reports from Switzerland engulfed the recent bullish pressure. Yesterday, Switzerland's Unemployment Rate was published with a decline to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.2% that helped the currency to gain good momentum against USD with a further bearish move in the future. On the USD side, NFP report dealt a blow to the currency on Friday. Since then, USD has not recovered yet due to the recent holiday in the market. Meanwhile, the positive unemployment report from Switzerland helps CHF to gain ground against USD. Today, FOMC Member Kaplan spoke about further monetary policy which is expected to see a hike in December. Besides, US JOLTS Job Opening report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 6.13M from the previous figure of 6.17M. To sum up, CHF is expected to gain good momentum in the coming days against USD which is also expected to provide a proper push to the pair to have impulsive bearish pressure in the coming days. USD has softened amid the downbeat nonfarm payrolls. So until the US comes up with positive economic reports or events to help the currency gain momentum, the pair is expected to be bearish further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with an engulfing candle of the last day which has shown evidence of impulsive bearish pressure in the coming. As the price remains below 0.9770, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Next bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7050 should be watched for bullish pullbacks before further bearish decline can occur.

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

Trade Recommendations

Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

Bitcoin developer Xapo said it would not necessarily treat the BTC as "real" Bitcoin after the SegWit2x update. When discussing Bitcoin Cash, which was launched in July, Xapo CEO Wences Casares confirmed that Bitcoin would be "the most difficult chain". This move is a strong appeal to support the SegWit2x chain if it receives the majority of support, and confusion may result from the addition of users to the "BTC" service.

Bitcoin owners are still waiting for the commitment of other major portfolios or stock market developers. Coinbase is silent on this subject, and only their former engineer Charlie Lee gave an insight into what will happen when a hard fork appears on November 18.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market was so far rejected from $4,900 level, but the important support at the level of $4,618 has not been tested yet. The market conditions are now overbought, so the price might enter a corrective cycle soon. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, this is the last moment for the main count to confirm the price movement, otherwise, the alternative impulsive scenario will be in charge.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 index closes at highest level since 1996. The European indices follow the sentiment in Asia and open higher as well. EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1830 resistance, USD/JPY is trading at 112.41, virtually unchanged. Gold declines a little and Crude Oil rally towards $51.21 level.

On Wednesday, 11th of October the event calendar is light with important news releases, but the main event of the day is FOMC Meeting Minutes release. In the meantime, we will have two speeches by FOMC members: Robert Kaplan and Charles Evans. Moreover, the news from Spain might influence the price volatility today as Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont announced in the Catalan parliament that he is taking a mandate from citizens to declare independence of the region, but has proposed that the parliament suspend the effects of the declaration of independence in order to start talks.

EUR/USD analysis for 11/10/2017:

The FOMC Meeting Minutes release is scheduled at 06:00 pm GMT. The minutes are likely to confirm that the Fed is on track for a December hike, although the market is pricing in a 70% chance so far. However, the minutes may reveal more about how the Fed's balance between a stronger economy and still too low inflation is viewed. Previous minutes have shown diverging views with one camp (majority) trusting the Philips curve (lower unemployment leads to wage pressure eventually) while another camp is in favor of awaiting clearer signs that inflation is actually moving towards the Fed's target of 2.0%. Any mention regarding a rolling to balance sheet sooner than expected will likely strengthen the US Dollar across the board again.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is trying to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.1830 in order to extend the rally towards the level of 1.1847 and then 1.1936. The momentum remains strong, but the market conditions are slowly turning overbought. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1786.

Market Snapshot: Crude Oil testing the resistance

The price of Crude Oil rebounded sharply from 50% Fibo level and now is testing the technical resistance at the level of $51.21. If this level is broken, then the bulls will likely move higher towards the local swing top at the level of %52.86. The strong momentum supports the bullish bias.

Market Snapshot: NZD/USD in a narrow range

The price of NZD/USD keeps trading in a narrow range between the levels of 0.7058 - 0.7089 in oversold market conditions. The chances for a corrective rally higher towards the level of 0.7131 are increasing and the price behavior at this level will determine future price movements.

EUR/USD: A bullish signal has been generated on the EUR/USD pair. Price has gained more than 80 pips this week, and it is now above the support line at 1.1800, going towards the resistance line at 1.1850 (the initial target). There are other targets at the resistance lines of 1.1900 and 1.1950, which would soon be breached. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the upside, and the Williams' Percentage Range period 20 is in the overbought region.

USD/CHF: Owing to the strength in EUR/USD, USD/CHF has been coming down gradually. The current southward movement has not been strong enough to override the recent bullish bias on the market. However, the more EUR/USD goes up, the more USD/CHF comes down. It would form a bearish bias, once the support level at 0.9700 is breached to the downside.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has gone upwards by more than 130 pips this week, now threatening the recent bearish outlook on the market. The RSI period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the upside, and once the distribution territory at 1.3300 is overcome, a Bullish Confirmation Pattern will appear in the market.

USD/JPY: There is an ongoing equilibrium phase in the market. A movement above the supply level at 114.00 would affirm the long-term bullish bias, while a movement below the demand level at 111.00 would result in bearish bias. Price gradually moving south, and so, a movement to the south is the most likely course of action.

EUR/JPY: This cross has gone sideways so far this week. The market has become neutral in the short term, and the neutrality may continue until price goes above the supply zone at 134.00; or below the demand zone at 131.00. One of this condition must be fulfilled this week or next week, for price to go out of the equilibrium phase.

On Tuesday evening, the head of Catalonia said that he was postponing the proclamation of independence. The deputies of the Catalan Parliament signed a declaration of independence but it has no legal force. The authorities of Catalonia withdrew, faced with strong resistance from both the Spanish authorities and opponents of independence inside Catalonia, both among citizens and among businesses.

The EU firmly stated that it would not accept Catalonia in the EU if the exit from Spain would not be backed by an agreement with Madrid.

One way or another, the weakening of the crisis around Catalonia has strengthened the euro. The EUR/USD rate reached an important level of 1.1835 on Wednesday morning and is now being corrected.

We expect the EUR/USD pair to grow with the target of 1.1980. We buy euro for this purpose.

Alternative and signal cancellation: Breakthrough down at 1.1668, from this level we will sell.

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Although the pair made a pullback, it is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 112.15 is support, a further upside to 112.55 and even to 112.80 seems more likely to occur.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.15 with a target at 111.95.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 147.80. The pair has turned up and is likely to continue a new rebound. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages play well support roles. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish, calling for further upside.

Therefore, as long as 147.80 is not broken, look for a further advance to 149 and 149.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 147.80 with the target at 147.40.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 147.80, Take Profit: 149.0

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Our both targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is still under pressure and still expected to move downwards. The pair is capped by a declining trend line since Oct. 9, which confirmed a bearish outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bearish, calling for another downside.

U.S. government bonds showed signs of stabilization following recent declines, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declining to 2.343% from 2.370% in the previous trading session.

The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground to the euro and the British pound which were boosted by upbeat economic data

Hence, below 0.9770, look for a new test with targets at 0.9710 and 0.9695 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish outlook as the key resistance at 0.7095. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.7095. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground to the euro and the British pound which were boosted by upbeat economic data.

Therefore, as long as 0.7095 holds on the upside, a return to 0.7030 is expected. A break below this level would trigger a new drop to 0.7000.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

The Dollar index made new lows yesterday interrupting the recent sequence of higher highs and higher lows that started back at 91. Short-term trend is now neutral as price has entered inside the 4-hour Kumo.

Yellow rectangle - resistance area

Black rectangle - support area

In the 4-hour chart the Dollar index is in neutral trend as it is inside the Kumo (cloud). Next support level is at 93-92.90. Resistance is at 93.50-93.70.

Black lines - bearish channel

On a daily basis, we have the first bearish confirmation as price has closed below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Still trading inside the bearish channel and being rejected at the upper channel boundary is a bearish sign. Daily support is at 92.80. Closing below it will be a very bearish signal implying new lows ahead.

The Gold price is testing the upper boundaries of the 4-hour Kumo (Ichimoku cloud). The price has broken above the short-term downward sloping trend line resistance levels and has most probably started its next upward move towards $1,400.

The Gold price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen in the 4-hour chart. This is the first bullish sign. Gold price is inside the 4-hour Kumo trying to break above it. The 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance is found at $1,297. Gold bulls will need to break above $1,295-$1,300 in order for the short-term trend to change to bullish again.

On a daily basis, the price is inside the Kumo but has broken above the tenkan-sen (Redline indicator). Next resistance level is at $1,310. A daily close above it will confirm bullish daily trend confirmation. Gold price is expected to continue higher over the coming weeks as we considered this pullback as a buying opportunity.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD has been in a non-volatile bearish trend recently and currently residing below the resistance level of 1.3220. There has been some tension growing about the Brexit process and Prime Minister May is going through tough times. Moreover, No-deal Eurozone talk is expected to hit the UK economy badly and lead to further weakness of Pound against USD in the coming days. Yesterday, GBP Manufacturing Production report was published with an unchanged figure of 0.4% which was expected to be decreased to 0.2%, Goods Trade Balance report was published with an increased deficit of -14.2B from the previous figure of -12.8B which was expected to show less deficit to -11.4B, Construction Output report was published with an increase to 0.6% from the negative value of -1.0% which was expected to be at 0.0% and Industrial Production report was published as expected at 0.2% which decreased from the previous value of 0.3%. Today there is no GBP news to be published whereas, on the USD side, FOMC Member Kaplan is going to speak about nation's key interest rates and future monetary policies which are expected to be neutral in nature and JOLTS Job Opening report is expected to decrease to 6.13M from the previous figure of 6.17M. Though due to holidays and worse economic reports published recently on USD, the pair is currently struggling to provide any directional movement, but USD is expected to gain momentum against GBP in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the resistance area of 1.3220-50 which is expected to proceed down towards 1.2850 in the coming days. As of the current situation, the bullish pressure has been skewed down around the resistance area which is expected to wear out as the bears step in the market to take the price lower towards the upcoming support level. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and resistance area of 1.3220-50 the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

The break above minor resistance at 132.77 indicates that wave B still is developing and likely will spike higher to 133.25 before tuning lower towards 130.52 and likely even closer to 128.85. A break below support at 132.64 will indicate that wave C lower towards at least 130.52 is developing.

R3: 133.25

R2: 133.00

R1: 132.85

Pivot: 132.64

S1: 132.28

S2: 131.84

S3; 131.34

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 132.80 was hit for a small profit. We will sell EUR again at 133.15 or upon a break below 132.64 with stop placed at 134.45.

Bitcoin is currently residing above the $4,700 price level, which has already taken over the $4,500 price level and now heading towards the $5,000 resistance area. The turnaround of the Bitcoin after the Chinese effect is remarkable and the market sentiment is pushing the price higher once again. The bullish bias is quite strong as the trend has been non-volatile since the break above the $4,000 price level. The cryptocurrency is currently behaving as a mature financial instrument as it is following the impulsive and corrective sequence like the rest of the mature financial market, which is indeed very impressive ans the digital currency is expected to attract more traders. As of the current situation, the price has been quite corrective today after the impulsive bullish move above the $4,700 price level; but as the price remains above $4,500, the impulsive bullish move is expected to proceed towards the $5,000 resistance area with a view of breaking above it in the coming days.

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