Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/30/18)

Smaller 8 game slate we’re working with tonight. There are not a lot of teams on this slate I like and with it being on the smaller size for NBA I’m going to be retracting my exposure a bit in GPPs. In addition, you can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Kyrie Irving

Chris Paul is going to be the mega-chalk at the point guard position today but on the lower-owned side, I’m a big fan of Kyrie Irving today. First off he cut his fro and is #back. All he needs to do is untuck his jersey and he’ll drop 50 tonight. Outside of the blowout against the Pistons, Irving was just underperforming given the minutes (32-35) and the usage (around 28%) he was seeing. This is a trend that isn’t going to last which is similair with Irving’s 7k price tag. Definitely jump on that price on this slate.

Fade: Kyle Lowry

Lowry has been producing fantasy points per minute at what I think is an unsustainable rate. Given the departure of DeMar DeRozan and acquisition of Kawhi Leonard, you’d think that Lowry’s fantasy performances might take a bit of a hit. It has been the opposite however and Lowry is priced extremely appropriately for how he has overperformed. The 76ers have been tough on opposing backcourts throughout all of last season and although they’ve been a bit softer this season I don’t want any part of Lowry tonight.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: Gerald Green

I feel like Gerald Green NEVER busts when he gets minutes. At least for me, he has been an extremely consistent player for my DFS teams over the past couple of years. In just 22 minutes in his last game has hit for 8x. Tonight where he is projected for 29 minutes, albeit with a price increase, I think Green hits value with ease.

Fade: Eric Gordon

With James Harden out people may flock to Eric Gordon for some upside but he really doesn’t have any at this price. Gerald Green is going to cut into his minutes as a high usage player when on the court in addition to the acquisition of Melo which will also decrease some usage we’ve seen Gordon have in the past in similair spots. Gordon’s projections haven’t been too affected by Harden being out and he’s only eclipsed 30 DK points once this season. Easy fade.

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Buddy Hield

Hield definitely is not going to be crazy low-owned on this slate but as is in today’s DFS NBA world it’s extremely hard to find options that will be that under the radar. Three consecutive games at 5.5k Hield has crushed value going for 7x, 6x, and 9x. Hield has consistently seen minutes above 30 and usage above 20 which is way too high for a player priced at 5.5k. He’s been shooting 6-7 three-pointers per game which is also huge as DK offers a .5 pt for every three-pointer made. He’s a lock to me on this slate.

Fade: Kawhi Leonard

I’ve been telling people to ride Leonard until he gets to the 10k mark after he started the season priced at 8.1k. Two weeks later his price has already jumped up to 9.5k. Think of players in DFS as the stock market, we bought low and now it’s time to sell high. Kawhi is at the price point now where he doesn’t offer that insurmountable upside he had at 8.1k. If Ben Simmons gets matched up with Leonard tonight this could be a pretty tough matchup for him.

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Jayson Tatum

Power Forward is always a tough position to find upside unless Anthony Davis is on the slate. Without breaking your salary cap Jayson Tatum offers a ton of value today given his price tag on Draftkings of 6.5k. One thing you need to be aware of with Tatum is that his usage rate has fluctuated this season ranging from 15.2% to 28.8%. While I wouldn’t pair Tatum on a team with Irving as one another cap each other’s usage and upside as it seems to correlate early in this 2018-2019 season I do like Tatum as a one-off in a single entry GPP lineup.

Fade: Tobias Harris

Not a ton of people will be paying up at power forward tonight but if for some reason you feel inclined to do so do not play Tobias Harris. Harris has been producing .14 fantasy points per minute more than he has over the course of his career through his first six games and we’ve seen an 11.4% increase in his price. If Harris hits the 33.6% usage rate he did in his second game this season against the Thunder he will hit value at this price. However, this is highly unlikely and Motrezl Harrel who continues to look great for the Clippers could cut into the 35-37 minute projection we see on Harris.

Center

Top GPP Play: Jusuf Nurkic

Doubting Jusuf Nurkic’s upside and instead play Pau Gasol on a slate last year where I was entered into a $3,000 tournament on Fanduel cost me $90,000 and will be something I never forget. I came in 3rd in this GPP taking home 10k (btw horrible payout structure), when all I needed was Pau Gasol to hit his FLOOR of 18.9 fantasy points (he only went for 12) OR play Jusuf Nurkic at the EXACT same price where he went off for over 60 fanduel points. Literally needed 7.9 fantasy points. I played Pau over Nurkic mainly because I had faded him the night before where he went off and burned me for around $400. This is the biggest tilt of my DFS career so I’ll never be over it.

Although I’m not in a $3,000 GPP tonight I am not going to make the mistake of fading Jusuf Nurkic’s upside. The man has a legit 60 DK point ceiling while priced down at 6k for his volatility in minutes this season ranging from 17 to 32 for time on the floor. The game he did see 32 was when he went off for 52 fantasy points. The Blazers are going to need his size on the floor to match up with Capela tonight and if he gets the minutes he’s a lock to crush value at 6k.

Fade: Clint Capela

On the other side of the ball Clint Capela should be fairly popular tonight for 1.7k more than Jusuf Nurkic. Capela sees a usage rate around 12-15% and is going to need to play around 35-40 minutes while being extemely efficient and contributing in the blocks/steals category to provide a ceiling worth paying for on this slate. This is a pretty easy fade for me.