Some new data from the long-running Scottish Social Attitudes Survey was released tonight, and it makes for fascinating reading.

The headline stat is that for only the second year in the 18 years the study has been running, independence is the most popular option for the governance of Scotland:

This doesn’t, however, mean that it’s the majority view, because while independence is backed by 45% the “No” option is split into two – support for devolution (41%) and those ultra-Yoons who want Holyrood abolished (8%).

Now, considering that as recently as 2012 those figures were independence on 23%, devolution 61% and no Parliament 13%, that’s still a remarkable shift in Scottish public opinion in a very short space of time – support for indy has DOUBLED in five years while devolution has dropped by a third.

And indeed, when the survey asked a straight Yes/No question the results came out even closer, at 48% Yes to 52% No – a 3% swing to Yes from the 2016 figures.

The survey also found that rather than being based on public anger at the prospect of a second independence referendum, the vote shift in the 2017 UK general election correlated extremely strongly with people’s EU referendum vote.

And there’s been another, perhaps more significant change.

Because for the first time, and as a direct result of Brexit (as other data in the survey makes clear), most Scots now think that independence will make Scotland’s economy BETTER than it would be in the Union. A 17-point negative margin before the indyref has now become a six-point positive one, a 23-point move. (Or in election terms, a huge 11.5% swing.)

Even more dramatically, there’s been a 28-point shift in voters’ perception of whether independence would give Scotland a stronger voice in the world, from a net (and baffling) -4 in the months leading to the indyref to a crushing 24-point positive now.

So in one sense these figures tell us nothing that we didn’t already know – namely that the Yes movement’s biggest problem is its Leave voters. And while Scotland voted overwhelmingly Remain and overall EU support is up noticeably since 2016 (an 8% swing), the nation certainly isn’t entirely and unequivocally in love with Europe.

Indeed, when they’re questioned on Scotland’s relationship with the trading bloc, the most popular option with Scottish voters isn’t “keep things as they are” but – just as it’s always been – “stay in while reducing the EU’s powers”.

But there’s also one other fly in the optimism ointment for Yes supporters. Because while backing for independence has remained resolute, the same can’t be said of the SNP. Among would-be Yessers in particular, the study suggests that a significant slice of the SNP’s vote turned to Labour at the 2017 election.

(Though we must be honest, we’re having some difficulty correlating that 12% rise in Labour support from Yes voters, which would be 5.4% across all of Scotland, with the pathetic 1.4% actual increase in the Labour vote, especially as Labour support among Unionists barely moved.)

And if SNP MPs are replaced by Labour ones at Westminster (along with Eurosceptic Tories), then the level of support in Scotland for independence becomes irrelevant, because the UK government will be able to block a second referendum indefinitely.

The only practical route to another vote – apart from a legal challenge in the Supreme Court that the SNP have shown no signs as yet of having the stomach for – is through a UK government that’s dependent on SNP MPs’ votes, and if Yes voters back Labour in Scotland that just won’t be happening.

(On the other hand, the Tories and Labour are currently so neck-and-neck in England that a hung Parliament dependent on the SNP is almost a certainty IF the SNP return 40+ MPs to Westminster again.)

So there are plenty of reasons in this year’s SSAS for Yes supporters to be in very good spirits indeed, but also plenty of things for Nicola Sturgeon to worry about.

She needs to win back only a small fraction of the Yes voters who also voted Leave to take an outright Yes lead, but at the same time she risks winning the polls but being unable to actually carry out a vote as Yes voters snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by madly turning to Scottish Labour in the hope of a brief period of Jeremy Corbyn rule before the Tories reassert themselves for another decade or two.

That also makes the perceived shift to the right of the Growth Commission report even more of a gamble, and will – we would imagine – influence delegates’ feelings at the SNP conference this weekend. Or it could be that the survey shows Peak Corbyn has already passed in Scotland. The First Minister remains on a tricky tightrope.

But whichever way things go, it seems a safe bet that Ruth Davidson’s demands for everyone to stop talking about the constitution aren’t being met any time soon.

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[EDIT 11.15pm – the Times has just bust a gut to put a negative spin on a YouGov poll on the eve of the SNP conference, highlighting a small 2% drop in Nicola Sturgeon’s personal popularity from a net 0 to -2. However, the poll also finds a 3% increase in SNP support for Holyrood, a 4% increase for Westminster, and a 5% drop for Labour, along with a stunning 27% drop in Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings to -30. The gap between the SNP and Labour has more than doubled, from eight points to 17, with the Tories just four points closer. We suspect conference will be in a pretty cheery mood despite this terrible “blow”.]

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Independence voters must vote for independence – then we as a nation can settle the EU question afterwards . The two should not be conflated , which is what too many in the SNP leadership do , This is a vote loser – and we cannot afford to lose the next Indy vote .

Good analysis, that blue curve in Fig. 1 looks like a decent trend and in which I can see no reason for a reversal.

I’m very optimistic as I believe most of those Yes supporters leavers really have to start doubting their wisdom in choosing to leave the EU once reality bites and the cracks can no longer be papered over by the Tories and MSM.

The arguments for supporting Brexit were built on pretty weak foundations that are crumbling before our very eyes every single day. They can’t fail to notice so I hope to have them back.

“She needs to win back only a small fraction of the yes voters who also voted leave to take an outright yes lead,”.
It is possible to want to be put of both the EU and the UK. I will always want independence, as well as a lot more distance from Europe. Personally, and opinion is worth nothing, I think that Scotland should have a more Norway-like relationship with Europe. Like I say opinion isn’t worth anything.

I’m willing to bet that there are plenty of people like me who want an independent Scotland and a different relationship with Europe. I voted remain btw.

These polls are consistent with Scottish attitudes from one minute to the next of lazy moaning faced angry argumentative if sumdy diznae dae sumfin the way ah waant it I’ll chuck all my toys right oot the pram and bite ma nose right aff people

It still amazes me the FM can still be bothered with us, she must have the tolerance and patience of a saint to put up with this when she doesn’t need to….and that buddies is exactly the reason we should be backing her, we need her she doesn’t need us, if she didn’t care about Scotland she could have job offers up to wazoo or be sunning herself on a nice beach somewhere

My advice to the FM take a month off and tell everybody you’re considering your life choices ……let’s see how long it takes for folk to realise they could really end up with a Unionist in her chair

Lisa @ 11.29
Your opinion is worth yer vote Lisa,and that is just as valuable as everyone else’s!
I don’t mind,a Norway model or full membership.
Although I did and do like being an EU citizen,but Norway seems to do “ok” without it.
The membership that my country and I voted to remain with has gone.
So whatever Scotland decides is fine by me….
Just so long as it’s Scotland who decides..
Either way we will have a Scotland specific EU membership or a tried and tested (Norway) arrangement!
The only bad outcome here is the Westminster Brexit!

I think many of the yes supporters who voted to leave were the narrow band who thought we could be self sufficient – not trading with the EU, which is totally outdated.

Scotland has been trading in Europe since at least the 13th century. William Wallace’s letter to the Hanseatic League (today’s common market) in 1297 told them we were back in business after we beat the English at the Battle of Stirling Bridge.

Scotland has what, a third of the land of the UK, abundant natural resources,and a government at Holyrood investing in infrastucture, industry, health, education, communities, etc etc, and in the people of Scotland. What’s not to like?

Imagine, dare to imagine Scotland having all of the economic and political levers that any normal country has, to invest even more, and expand on what that country already has at it’s disposal.

After 300 plus years of being ruled over by her neighbour, kept poor and begging, Scotland deserves independence, and is massively worthy of self determination. It’s 2018.

England can choose their government and future and Scotland can choose her government and future. It’s the natural way of things.

Scotland could and should be a beacon for good government, not perfect, but against huge odds, 8/10 imo. UKgov? They just don’t compare do they, in any way, shape or form. Look at them, look at what they are doing, it’s so destructive and so negative, and depressing.

Not sure what Nicola Sturgeon could do to win any naysayers over.

They know that they benefit hugely by having an SNP government, even Tory and Labour MP’s and MSP’s will be benefitting by Scotland having better infrastructure, no prescription charges, free tuition for their kids, much lower crime rates, a well functioning health service, and much more.

Hell, even the libraries are still open! Unless the Tories and Labour councils in Scotland closed them themselves out of spite of course. Why on earth would anyone who lives here, want Scotland to fail, to be less than it can and should be? It’s crazy.

We have a very good springboard, having had the SNP government for the past 10 years. Only 10 years, after centuries of English rule. We can’t expect miracles, it isn’t all going to be roses in the garden, but without independence, the Britnats will lay waste to everything that has been achieved in the past 10 years. Who in their right mind would want that?

The EU is there for us and the people can decide on what form that takes, once we are independent, otherwise we really do not have a say, or a choice in the future of our country Scotland.

Independence Referendum has to be on the agenda at this weekends conference.

I voted remain, but after watching the ramifications of Catalonia I became less enthused, however I feel that Scotland’s place is in the heart of Europe and thst is where we should be.

At least we will be treated as an equal, even though a small nation.

At this present moment, at a whim Westminster can cut funds to Scotland, ie the 2.6 Billion cut to Scotland’s budget without batting an eye….or the monies that came specifically from the EU for Scottish hill farmers, but was given to English and Welsh farmers, simply because the monies were handed over to Westminster.

The power that an unfairly balanced English Westminster parliament has over the smaller nations has to be stopped.

I don’t think there is any other country in the world that has a parliament that is so unfairly balanced to one particular nation.

Being Independant in Europe puts all EU funding in Scot.gov to distribute.

OT Last night’s BBC “Look North” (of England) reported that Northern Rail has withdrawn ALL train services from the Lake District. There are replacement buses, but there’s no date for the restoration of train services.

I struggle to understand those who support Independence …but only if it meets MY criteria/vision.
The vote is to recover the right for future generations to shape Scotland. It is a very simple concept covered by the question “…what other country in the World would surrender decision making to another country”

…as for Indy voters who back Labour…wake up-they are part of the unionist cabal- in fact they often lead the arguement as in 2014.

Unfortunately the unionists have once again managed a degree of divide and rule. They visit the left forums screaming “…proposals don’t go far enough”. They target the EU leavers with “…they want to swop Westminster for the EU. They tell the Greens that the SNP are not radical enough on climate change.
The simple yet effective message is…best we leave it to Westminster to manage it for you!

A simple choice – either unite to take back control or you are supporting the union.
Whatever your little “red line” is on Independence do you really think it will be achieved by continued division?

The vote is about the creating the right for your children’s children to make choices. I have confidence in them and accept that we cannot tell them what the nation should look like. They may be very pro EU or very anti…they will decide in the long term BUT only if we create the environment for them. If we do not then they will continue to dance to the tune of another nation.

I like others feel that the Conference must take action over Indy, the natives are too restless,chapping at the bit really. The feeling seems to be that it is fast approaching “the time”.
The stars are aligning.

Indy to the fore, rally the troops, get everyone get building momentum and push Indy for all it is worth is really what Nicola should be doing. A big weapon we should use is how useless the “Union” actually is, we have all the info we need on the subject.

We need to put them on the back foot and make them try to defend their Union and it’s actions in Scotland, never give them an inch and repeatedly ask them, in 307 years what is Scotland’s gain?. We well know we can counter any hint of positives they attempt. They really cannot defend nor explain just how we are better off, we CAN explain why we are not.

I was very angry at the EU lack of response to the injustices in Catalonia,however it did make me realise the difference between the EU and the UK.The latter is tight and smothering the former is a loose agreement. So it is nonsense to suggest Independence means Scotland would be swopping one Union for another similar one.

Quite a haul Nana and I can fully get behind your thoughts on the third link RE: exports.

Something to consider from this survey (and I may put some meat on those thought later in WGD) is the attitude change itself. That it’s happened in the face of the worst, most sustained barrage of anti Scotgov, anti indy propaganda in UK political history.

Mibbies the meeja should take note of that little factoid, but I sincerely doubt they will.

I don’t understand how some people can’t grasp that after independence then new political parties will be formed, and indeed needed, in Scotland. There will be no “Labour”, “Conservatives” etc. We will have new names for our parties, for our Scottish parties!
If I was keen to get into politics in a big way and had strong leanings towards the left or right politically, I’d be thinking of starting a suitable independent Scottish party.
Has there ever been any talk/proposals/whatever for anything like this? Is there anybody preparing out in the wings for this?
If you’re not happy with the SNP (I am, but life would be boring if we were all the same), worried about a one party state, would rather be on the centre right than left, BUT KNOW independence is THE BEST and ONLY way forward. Then do something about a new party.

As someone who voted to leave both the European Union and the Union between Scotland and England I would like to give my view of how I will vote when we have a second referendum.

I will vote yes as my fear of Westminster outweighs my fear of Europe. Of the two, Westminster is dangerously out of control. A second fear of remaining in the UK union is having our powers seized and our parliament, the one the people of Scotland fought so hard to have restored will be closed and power removed to the hands of David Mundell. Secretary of State for (anything but) Scotland. Scotland would be brought back under direct Tory rule and as someone who grew up during the Thatcher years, someone whose future was destroyed at the hands of this woman. I do not what that for future generations.

The EU is a great big business club but it is the best option for now, as there is safety in numbers. And if we are in the EU, at least we would have a veto. Something we would not have if we were to return to direct Tory rule.

Hope this is not too long, just wanted to give you the thoughts of someone who voted to leave both unions and who will vote to leave the UK union when I get the chance again. Perhaps there are other, like me who would do the same. I cannot speak for them but hopefully we will have enough to get us well over the line this time round.

Hi Karen – good to hear a new voice and although I voted YES and REMAIN I understznd the reservations people have about the EU. But, as you say, independence comes first. Then we can decide for ourselves what level of association with the EU is best.

Good to see that I have contributed in no small measure to the magnificent gift of a Roller to the City of Glasgow, setting off right now for more teacakes & dark chocolate caramel wafers. Mr Tunnock also paid for the new lifeboat at St Abbs, he is the Carnegie of our time & should be commended thus!

Unlike your good self, I voted to remain in the EU. Not because I believe it to be the greatest organisation in the world, but because I thought it would be our best realistic option. I don’t see it as a monolithic unbending union, rather one in constant change as circumstances dictate. I was dismayed by their handling of the Greek crisis, but also know that Greece did itself no favours.

I’m with Wee Ginger Dug on this one. Stay in the EU after independence and if all goes well in England after they exit (seems unlikely) then we can decide whether to stay or remain. It’s a win/win situation.

The other factor which needs consideration in the event of a close Westminster GE result (which could well occur before the fixed term runs its course) is that of the malcontents in the PLP from the Progress/LF wing of the LP.

This hardcore group of probably up to at least 50 MP’s won’t accept a Labour Government under the current leadership. Last time around many of these campaigned under the LP logo on a flawed analysis of the outcome based on their own prejudices and what they wanted. Telling electors in their Constituencies that they would hold the (incoming landslide Tory) Government to account and get rid of the current leadership.

From this point of view it makes sense for them to hang on to the candidature of the seat against potential trigger ballots and reselections to enable them to deny a workable Corbyn led Government, should Labour get a majority, by whatever means necessary under the circumstances of the time. Voting against a Queens Speech with Tory Opposition; forming an independent block; a coalition of opposition to a Corbyn led Government; crossing the floor; whatever it takes.

From the point of view of Scottish independence the more independence minded MP’s Scotland sends down to Westminster next time around the greater the leverage. Particularly if we have another early GE.

However, over this last couple of years I’ve actually become more pro EU. I am sure this is because of the discussion of what the EU has delivered versus the Brexiteers wishing to undo it all. A good example is food standards. I want rules and regulations to ensure what I eat is safe for human consumption!

The contrast between the ‘good’ from the EU measured against the potential ‘bad’ from a Brexit UK seems enormous.

However an iScotland, free of Westminster and Tory madness, could and should look at the EU from a fresh and different viewpoint.

That will be a decision for iScotland and no one else. First, we need to achieve iScotland!

Well, I voted remain in the EU referendum, but I had to hold my nose to do it. I just felt that the alternative was too awful to contemplate. I fully respect anyone who voted leave, that is your right. But I now think that a lot of folk like yourself will be reconsidering things. I’m delighted that you have decided to vote yes in Indyref2. Independence first, then let us consider where we as a country want to go on from there.

Given that these polls tend to be via land-line telephone and therefore with householders, how accurate are they likely to be? Most 16 – 34 year olds (an important pro-indy. demographic) won’t fit the householder category, so maybe support is currently higher than the poll suggests?

Desperate stuff from The Times. England is gradually waking up to the fact that Ireland and Scotland won’t take their britnat arrogance and incompetence any more. England will never admit it though, which is another boost for a united Ireland and an independent Scotland.

All things remaining equal, Scotland WILL be an independent country just because of natural life cycles.

Over 70% of under 30 support Independence.
Even assuming 50% of those turn against when they’re old and bitter, with a 35% independence support in the older generations we’re across, because the younger generations will still be 70%+ Yes.

The immediate problem scuppering the trend is the abyss in front of all us in March 2019. There’s no time to wait for generational shifts.

When the UK jumps off the cliff, many young people – and many older Yes supporters, as I am – will leave Scotland, leaving the old and bitter basturts alone to wallow in their own shit (figurative and literal).

I see Keith won the deputy slot. I voted Ruth in the end but Keith is a safe pair of hands and in truth any of the three brought different skill sets and I could have got behind any of them.

I am hopeful that Keith will take the support for the other two candidates as indication that we do need some urgency behind Indyref2. I see he referenced AUOB marches early in his acceptance speech. Fingers crossed as the polls move our way 🙂

You can be independent within all the union organisations the EU is involved with EEA EFTA EU but you’re not allowed to have any of those choices in the United kingdom of England of lesser colonies and serfs who at will or any time of their choosing will remove assets from your country and sell them to the highest bidder but keep telling you if you want to complain *Now is not the time*

Now is not the time to ever do anything in Scotland and never has been because Scotland is subservient to another country and the folk who think the EU is remotely like that have been reading the wrong comics

I use and cite the region of Wallonia often and doubters of the democracy of the EU should read up on that to give themselves context as to how the EU works for everybody and not against

Some opponents of the EU argue the Greece situation, all I can say is I’ve never fully understood and still don’t understand Greece because they seemed to make everybody angry at them not just the EU, so could it be that everybody in the world was was right and Greece was wrong, is that possible

Maybe a bit like the *Kingdom of Englands UK Britain we’re not listening* is right now

Still, we’ve been getting punched in the face for over 300 years, we must like it a lot or we’re stupid because after all this time we can’t make up our minds whether to duck

Folk have to realise the UK of England doesn’t and never did want to be a part of anything, they think it’s their God given right to RULE everything and if they aren’t allowed to do that they’d quite like to bomb it

There could be WMDs hidden in the EU maybe Boris Johnson will frighten us about the risks to the world if the dreadful EU is allowed to continue with its vile plan for world co-operation

My take-away from all this is that Corbynistas, especially those claiming to be Scots or having our interests at heart, have to be tackled full-on whenever they show their faces on social media.

Dunno if it’s just me but there seems to be a rise in the number of well-mannered JC fans who use the whole #forthemanynotthefew mantra to appeal to traditional Labour voters whilst totally ignoring the facts of SLab’s current state. They don’t engage in argument about SLab’s shortcomings because they know they can’t win – instead, they play the guilt card, trying to make us feel that we’re preventing a revolution.

FWIW, I’m telling them that what we decide is our business and that Corbynistas have no serious place in Scottish constitutional debates – JC may be a decent spud and all that, but he’s made it plain that he has no interest in our movement towards independence. We owe him, and Labour, nothing.

I voted YES in 2014. I also voted LEAVE, partly because I had serious reservations about the undemocratic way the elites run the EU for their own shellfish interests (compounded recently by their atrocious behaviour towards Greece and Catalonia).

However, the main reason I voted leave was to force the constitutional issue. If the BritNats were so dumb to vote leave and tear their precious UK apart, why not provide a helping hand? Yep, I voted to leave but rejoiced when all of Scotland voted remain. Every single constituency. It’s been wonderful watching the BritNats trying to spin their way out of an utterly hopeless, no-win situation, a death trap of their own making (helped a little by some of us mischievous nats). The only better outcome IMO would have been a narrow remain vote dependent of Scottsh votes, but that was so difficult, nigh impossible to achieve, so leave it was.

I was made aware last night of a post by Gordon Ross ( indycar) asking a question re a new political entity ie GRIP ( grass roots independence party ) well Mr Ross U have a few questions to answer WHO is behind this so called GRIP , as far as I’m aware there is no leader of the Grassroots movement & no body overall in control of the Grassroots movement , we don’t need another political entity diluting the vote for the SNP .

I hope that some Wingers would be intrique’d to pursue the same question F/B/Twatter ect

Assuming an independent Scotland has to re-join the EU (if it wants to), rather that taking over the ex-UK place, I think its entirely possible that the EU will move heaven and earth to smooth that re-entry.
Having just, for the first time, visited Eire – a small, previously impoverished independent nation with a market in thrall to the UK, driving on roads of a quality I could only dream about in central Scotland, and a people who of whatever politics, feel in control of their country, with an econmomy that bears no relation to the pre-EU doldrums, the conclusion must be that the EU has been immensly good for The Republic, in a way their UK-associate membership has not.
I can see the EU deciding that any price is worth paying to keep the newly independent, skilled, English-speaking and energy-rich Scotland within their trading sphere.
Expect the EU to throw money at iScotland’s infrastructure – roads, ferries, air routes and energy production for at least the first 5-10 years.

I was always luke warm about the EU but I voted Remain. It is the lesser of two evils in my view and the Westminster determination to exit the SM and CU nothing short of bizarre.

I have never seem the EU as anything like the Union. Individual countries have a fair degree of latitude in the EU, in the Union Scotland has very limited to scope on the economy, foreign policy and trade.

I simply do not understand people switching between Labour and SNP. Either your country is Scotland or it isn’t. People who trim and tack like this simply cannot be called nationalists. If you will not take your own country seriously, if you will not put its sovereignty before any other consideration, then why should anybody else take it seriously?

I can tell you one thing with certainty if we don’t gain our Independence under Nicola Sturgeon we are seriously going to struggle to gain it under any other potential SNP leader.
She is head and shoulders above ALL other politicians in the UK in spite of the moronic polling results.
How Ruth Davidson can even be mentioned along side her is testimony of just how gormless your average UK voter is and how gullible they are willing to allow themselves to be.

The most sensible strategy is to stay in the EU until the new Independent Scotland is stabilized and the new economy and financial structures (Central Bank, currency etc.) are ‘bedded in’.
After the transition to self-determination, we can decide whether we want to stay in the EU, become a part-member like Norway, or leave altogether. A decision like this MUST be left until AFTER we gain Independence from the UK. It would be really stupid to link them.

Those ‘Yes voting’ ‘EU leavers’ are effectively holding the whole country hostage by threatening to vote ‘No’ unless we also leave the EU, before we become self governing, like every other country in the world!

It’s political blackmail and is unacceptable. We need to be in the EU for a transition period in order to stabilize our economy and trade.

As far as I understand the idea of GRIP is for the Holyrood elections, Some where SNP voters can use up their second votes keeping them away from Union parties, as they are now operating as one party but standing as two. Time SNP were on level pegging with this.

“We need to be in the EU for a transition period in order to stabilize our economy and trade.”

Agreed. But what I would say is that it should be made clear BEFORE the Indy vote is that in the first term of an indy Scotland Parliament, the SNP will hold an EU ratification referendum (like we did with the EEC in 1974). This allows Euro-skeptic folks to get on-board with ‘Indy First’ in the knowledge that they will be given the opportunity in a future ScotGov EU Referendum to ratify our EU position or opt for some other arrangement with the EU.

THE TIMES ENGLAND EDITION. FRONT PAGE SPLASH:
“The BBC secretly used personal companies to pay dozens of its richest stars £74 million in the past four years despite promising to curb the practice in 2012.

It tried to stop The Times reporting the extent to which it channels earnings through the companies, in a move that experts said could have enabled tax avoidance of up to £20 million…….” 🙁

Who wants to vote to retain such a skewed economic model propped up by a WM Parliamentary system that is damaging to the majority of UK citizens from cradle to grave. Scotland has a positive and enlightened future outside of this mal functioning union that’s long past its sell by date.

The geography of inequality
‘London is the most unequal part of the UK.

One in four poor children live in the 10% most deprived local authorities. Poverty is especially geographically concentrated for working-age households: only 13% of pensioners in poverty are in the 10% most deprived localities.

Average (median) income in the highest-income region in Britain (the South East) is 25% higher than in the lowest-income region (West Midlands). Nevertheless, income inequalities within regions are far larger than differences in average incomes across regions.

Average incomes in the south of England (excluding London) and Scotland have grown faster than in Britain as a whole over the last 40 years. This means the South East is now nearly twice as far above the national average as it was in the 1970s (13% compared with 7%).The Midlands have fared worst in terms of income growth over the last 40 years. Low income is more likely to be persistent (i.e. to last for multiple years) for pensioners, lone parents, and those with more than three children. Persistent poverty is defined as being in poverty in three out of the last four years. Persistently low parental earnings and persistent parental worklessness are both important in explaining persistent child poverty. Although the risk of persistent poverty is low (5%) for children who consistently live with a parent in paid work, most children are in this situation and so they still account for 38% of persistently poor children’

I think you will find that most remainers in Scotland are Scottish people and most of the brexiteers are English people living in Scotland
Those English people living in Scotland are quite prepared to switch from labour to Tory to Lib dem to achieve what nearly all of them want which a NO vote for Scottish independence and a hard Brexit
It is the English vote in Scotland that will prevent Scottish independence
If English people had not been allowed to vote in the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 Scotland would have been independent
English nationalism is hanging on with its fingertips from within Scotland

I persuaded my brother, down south for nearly 30 years now, to vote Leave as a means of creating a constitutional crisis too. I voted Remain, again like others not because I believe that the EU is some wonderful union, especially after the treatment of Greece, but because it was insanity to come out of the EU for the reasons that UKexiteers were promoting and also because the EU was the ‘safer’ option if we were to continue as part of the UK?

We are protected from the worst of the Tory impact because we have at least recourse to EU laws that have actually protected Scotland and improved our lives in ways that would be unimaginable if we had never been in the EU in the first place. Without the EU we would not have our parliament reconvened in the first place?

But the prospect of being out of the EU and still in the UK is absolutely terrifying to me as a yes voter. We will as Karen said and has proved to be the case be utterly shorn of our devolved powers (power grab) and our parliament will be under direct threat form the Tory establishment post UKexit.

If that does not scare the bejesus out of people living and working in Scotland…then they aren’t paying attention to what’s actually happening.

Keep getting the message out there folks, keep talking to one another, Independence first then we deal with our wider EU/EFTA/Ewhatever stance.

Why on earth would you forego a chance at independence just for the slim chance of a Corbyn-led government? Even if he did get in, England’s natural aversion to left-wing policies will ensure the Tories will get a crushing majority after his brief stint at Westminster.

The only option is independence. If we stay, we’ll be domineered by perpetual Tory governments who will gradually wear down the powers of the Scottish Parliament until it becomes so toothless that Scots will be tricked into thinking it would be better if direct rule from London was reinstated.

Make no mistake. The Tories know they cant just abolish our Parliament. They are playing the long game. Drip, drip, drip.

For the sake of our democracy and our country’s future, we must get the hell out now!

The latter leavers are closet BritNats, slowly drifting back to the tories anyway and will probably vote NO next time as well.

The former – I don’t think we really have to worry about them. The occasional confused individual will of course be bigged up by the media, as a serious problem for the independence movement. However, I suspect that most of those claiming they voted YES and will vote NO next time aren’t really being truthful about what they really did in 2014.

You would be surprised how many confused NO voters actually think they voted YES last time. Poor sods. 🙂

Experience should teach you but sometimes doesn’t, because of the brain’s propensity to deny having made a serious mistake. The brain is not always rational and that’s because of the way it has evolved, in this instance to save you feeling the stress of wrong decisions. It’s very good at finding excuses for these decisions, to help protect your self-image as, ironically, a rational person.

However, there is that strange phenomenon of the Damascene conversion which is not really as it seems – a singular moment when everything changed – which Paul represented as a vision. Many of us have experience of something similar, if not with the world-changing effect of Paul on the road to Damascus.

For example, having struggled with a seemingly insoluble problem and abandoning it, or sleeping on it, you may have had – perhaps on waking – the solution appear suddenly in your mind. The brain can work that way, not involving the You that ‘you’ think is in charge.

Anyway, this has been an elaborate way of trying to say that, just like Paul, who obviously was well on the way on his journey of the mind before actually setting foot on the road to Damascus, there might well be those who previously voted No, who still claim to be No, who might be making that incremental change in their own minds.

They can be helped on their way by being presented by facts – and by positive people who do not share their seemingly set opinions.

…maybe Boris Johnson will frighten us about the risks to the world if the dreadful EU is allowed to continue with its vile plan for world co-operation

=laugh=

Liked it!

It’s funny that there are still people around who know fine well that the MSM have been maligning the SNP and independence for decades, yet can still somehow swallow whole the anti-EU propaganda that bunch of right-wing zoomers have been excreting for even longer.

It’s all about London Rule. No room for anyone else, internal or external, in the minds of the BritNats.

It is encouraging that support for the SNP and Independence remains high despite falling ratings for Nicola Sturgeon. Leaders come and go and individual popularity is fickle, as we all know, they build you up and then knock you down.

What is important is that despite the onslaught the trend is going in the right way. People can now see for themselves the oppertunism and ideological sterility of Corbyn. The promise of the never-ending seesaw of Tory/Lab governments does nothing for Scotland.

I can’t understand why you can’t understand. It means sitting at the top table with a vote and a veto, having the direct ability to change the direction the EU may take in the future, not just sitting passively letting things be done to us as we are today.

Just like independence, really. Having a real influence over what happens.

Claims about supposed difficulty are manifestly ill-founded. There’s been much rule nit-picking on offer, but no-one actually knows, since the situation is entirely novel. But if we show willing, so will the EU. Once independent, we would be offered an immediate bridge back, since we already have the necessary acquis. The EU would be crazy not to do so, it’s so very obviously in the self-interest of both sides.

i am well aware of the advantages of full eu membership over efta, but that wast my point. efta/eea tied to indyref2 is an interim position, designed to undo the damage of leaving the sm and cu, which even the eurosceptics are now seeing how bad an idea this is and to help win them over to yes.

once indy, full eu membership is a must, for exactly the reasons you point out

I’m not quite sure what that means because (other than total collapse and imminent crash out) we won’t know much about Brexit for years. IMO the Tories will agree to a fudged ‘Divorce Treaty’ and kick the can further into the future. The terms of the future relationship could be many years away.

Watchers of Brexit will have spotted their latest scam. A back stop must be agreed for NI’s relationship with the Rep. The Tories have changed the wording of the back stop to say UK instead of NI.

It’s a continuity case, just like currency in the GCR, to demonstrate to the faint-hearted that the transition to indy can be made relatively smoothly. Minimal short-term change.

Arguing for something different than continuity, like EFTA, unnecessarily opens a new bag of worms, and requires new persuasion of the oft-overlooked, the significant majority who voted remain. (As if we don’t have enough persuading besides to do.)

If there is any residual concern, we can always re-visit the EU question, like every other, once we are in charge for ourselves.

Also worth pointing out, thanks. There are apparently 250k of them in Scotland, though I don’t know what proportion are of voting age. Can’t think that many would be too enthused though by any Brexit option, no matter how “lite”.

You bet the UKGov is aiming to disenfranchise them, just as they did in 2016 along with the 16-17 year-olds whose future it was more than anyone’s. But that’s fake democrats for you.

More puzzling though are those supposed indy supporters who want to defer IR2 until after 29.March next year, when all the EU residents will automatically drop out without a murmur, at the mere stroke of a pen.

good point, either way, i believe we are moving in the right direction,

we are now coming down to the wire, we will know exactly what brexit means and its effects, which no one believes will be good, and more to the point, what effect it will have on public opinion regarding independence in scotland. scratch that, it will increase support for yes, the question is how much.

on wings we discuss when indyref2 should be, but the real issue is convincing more than 50% to support us.

It would be business as usual if Labour got in. Whether red or blue, they all support the same austerity policies, the same illegal wars, the same anti-devolution stance. Corbyn will pay lip service to the Union, as do all London politicians, and carry on merrily while ignoring Scotland’s batch of MPs (or if there are any Labour ones among them, using them as voting fodder.)

I agree with you. Only independence can bring good governance to Scotland.

Essentially this is where we differ. I take the word of the EU Commission, successive Commission Presidents and what’s down in black and white in TEU.

The EU is a membership organisation of ‘European States’ – a phrase consistently used throughout the Lisbon Treaty. A membership organisation of independent states. We are not independent, therefore we are not an ‘European State’, therefore not a member of the EU. We can’t keep what we don’t have.

Yes, agreed, Scots Law is congruent with the Aquis. However, that doesn’t obviate the need for assorted institutions that independent states have as a matter of course. Nor does it avoid the need to go through the normal accession process, just like every other applicant. We are not special, not exceptional and there is no sign that the EU will tear up it’s hard-agreed rules just for us.

EFTA is the only practical, precedented route back to the single market after independence.

Personally I think its the best way to get a Yes vote because it gives the maximum number something to vote positively for. The advantages of Europe are in the EEA, not in the specific route to EEA membership

It will be business as usual if Labour gets in. Whether red or blue, they all support the same austerity policies, the same illegal wars, the same anti-devolution sentiment. Corbyn will pay lip service to the Union, as do all London politicians, and carry on merrily while ignoring Scotland’s MPs or using them as voting fodder if there’s any Labour ones among them.

Arguing for something different than continuity, like EFTA, unnecessarily opens a new bag of worms, and requires new persuasion of the oft-overlooked, the significant majority who voted remain. (As if we don’t have enough persuading besides to do.)

==============

as much as i voted remain and think leaving is a terrible idea, i can see no chance or means whereby the uk will not leave in march next year.

the people will need to re orient their positions eg remainers becoming re joiners etc, so new bags of worms will be opened regardless.

as for persuading people, the point about efta will appeal to yes leavers as the enormity and damage due to leaving the sm and cu becomes evident. it will also apeal to yes remainers for the same reason.

also, tying eu membership to indyref2 risks promising something to the voters that isnt within our power to promise this.

we risk making the same mistake as indyref2. the eu has already said that an indy scotland would need to apply to re join which could take months perhaps years.

it will be evident to all during indyref2 that every moment out of the sm/cu will be very damaging and that getting back into the sm/cu with the greatest speed will be obvious to everyone, efta/eea offers the quickest route.

Its good to read a wide range of contributions on what motives Wingers to be for or against EU membership.

I voted ‘remain’ in the EU Ref and on balance and in principle I’m still in favour of an independent Scotland having full EU membership. However, in terms of achieving, specifically, beneficia economic outcomes for an indy Scotland I am open to persuasion (i) over single market, and (ii) over customs union membership – when the time to choose comes.

One of my motivations in voting ‘remain’ during the EU ref was to retain the social and legal protections afforded by EU membership as I fear the rolling back of these protections if out of the EU but still governed by Westminster. I am less concerned about losing such protections if fully governed from Holyrood.

My understanding is that even if a newly indy Scotland could somehow retain EU membership i.e. never formally leave (and I don’t see that as very likely now), we would NOT end up with the same terms of membership as the UK. Nor indeed may we want the same.

So there is a negotiation to had by the first government of an indy Scotland with the EU over membership. The proposition that emerges should (will?) be put to the electorate of our newly independent country to decide.

As in all things, the choice between e.g. full EU membership, just single market membership or both single market and customs union membership, or none of the above will involve trade- off and compromise. The really important thing here is that we in Scotland will decide which of these is in our best interests. And if it turns out we choose unwisely first time, it will be in our power to elect another government to bring a different/better proposition for us to assess and vote on at any time in the future. This is the essence of self-determination – anything else at this crucial time in our history is narrow, transitory party politics or narrow personal self-interest.

I’ve only just formulated this in my head so feel free to pick it apart, but I think this would make a neat wee resolution for the SNP.

“THE SNP are in favour of an independent Scotland taking its place as a full member of the European Union. However, in the event of the SNP being elected to govern an independent Scotland we would commit to holding a referendum allowing the Scottish people to have their say on a range of options including full membership, a “Norwegian style” relationship, or withdrawal.”

As in all things, the choice between e.g. full EU membership, just single market membership or both single market and customs union membership, or none of the above will involve trade- off and compromise. The really important thing here is that we in Scotland will decide which of these is in our best interests

=====================

actually we wont, the question being discussed is what is the best option for us to tie the indyref2 campaign to, efta or eu.

before we get to the point of chosing for ourselves we first need to win our independence

I take the word of the EU Commission, successive Commission Presidents and what’s down in black and white in TEU.

Yup, this is exactly the kind of bureaucratic nit-picking to which I referred. But it’s creating castles in the air. For diplomatic reasons the EU can’t say any more right now, which is a pity, but once Scotland is free of the UK, all those supposed “obstacles” will vanish.

Because the EU needs us on board just as much as we need them. Realpolitik in action, not empty theory.

But there’s nothing like conjuring up difficulties in advance where they need not exist, eh?

All for the sake of the fabled Yes-Leavers, the majority of whom will return to the cause once a campaign begins in earnest anyway. Why ever would they not? To give up all control to London?

The ones who won’t return are the anti-immigrants, and after all the recent “we need immigrants” talk from the SG (rightly and truthfully IMO), we aren’t going to see any of them ever again. We have been outbid for their (dubious) favour.

There’s no evidence that any other kind of international co-operation like EFTA will appeal to these isolationists either. Just fanciful assumption.

Or is there some other wheeze you have in mind to appease them as well…?

Whereas in the meantime all this unprincipled trimming could so very easily disillusion the Remainer majority, who are somehow blithely assumed to be willing to stick with Brexit-lite regardless. (?) Don’t count on it.

glenn
im not sure that is necessary
62% voted remain which by definition means they didnt want to leave either the eu or the sm or the cu. so their should be no need to hold an euref once indy which asks whether we wish to leave or join the sm or the cu. the people have already given their verdict on these options and the nicola has a mandate to apply for membership of efta/eea without recourse to a plebicite.

the point about eu membership for the uk was raised on question time this week, even if the uk stopped brexit today, the deal the uk had and which 62% of scots voted for, no longer exists, to even stop brexit today and roll back the last 18 months is no longer possible. the uk rebate and opt outs are gone. the uk would need to commit to rejoining the euro (even though there is no mechanism to force the uk to adopt it)

this leaves the problem for uk remainers calling for euref2, the problem of what the question would be since the status quo is no longer an option.

the same issue would apply to an indy scotland, we would need an euref for the people to accept or reject the type of eu membership offered by the eu to an indy scotland.

Yup, this is exactly the kind of bureaucratic nit-picking to which I referred. But it’s creating castles in the air. For diplomatic reasons the EU can’t say any more right now, which is a pity, but once Scotland is free of the UK, all those supposed “obstacles” will vanish.
=============

it isnt nit picking, we promised automatic eu membership during indyref1 and the unionist knocked down that option in the minds of the voters regardless of the truth of the matter.

you say “once Scotland is free of the UK” that is the problem, we need to focus our efforts on winning that freedom first

We must not tie the indy ref campaign tightly to any one of the various EU/EEA options. Why? Because we can’t know in advance of negotiations between the indy Scotland’s government and the third party (EU or EFTA) what the terms will be, even assuming a membership is on offer. And we shouldn’t seek to usurp an indy Scotland electorate’s right to decide once we can assess these terms.

We do need to learn the lesson of 2014: arguably we tied the campaign too closely to a currency union – a key proposition – that was not in our gift to deliver, no matter how feasible/sensible it would have proved to be to both sides after a yes vote.

However, notwithstanding all this, we do need to provide voters with reassurance: it seems to me that this could be done via EFTA – more certainty/more easily and quickly joined – either as a transitional arrangement or a permanent one, should final EU terms be rejected by our electorate.

For the avoidance of doubt, my aim is for a campaign message on Europe that (simply) encourages a winning yes vote – NOT one that encourages a ‘yes but only if certain European-related conditions are met for me in advance’!

I think we Independence supporters on here do have a major problem with regards to Brexit as does Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.

Truth be told we have no idea come October if we will be on our way out or looking more likely facing another referendum. I doubt this is deliberate by the Tories just to foil a second Independence referendum. It’s all down to the incompetence of the Tory cabinet who can’t even agree what they actually want and May is far to weak to deal with it.

I want a second referendum as soon as possible but what does that mean? Seems to me that I agree totally with Nicola Sturgeon and it means “when we have clarity on the Brexit terms”.

That was supposed to be October this year, does anyone really believe now that this will be the case? Personally I have my doubts. I remain calm about all this “timing” as important as it is it is not the be all and all. We still need to build support as even the latest poll shows, be cool about that and steadily do your own thing to increase support because it is working in my view.

We have a mandate until 2021, remember the tortoise beat the hare by being smarter than he was.

Scotland always gets the government that England votes for. England is an increasingly culturally intolerant, Tory voting nation, now that UKIP appears to have shot it’s bolt. As such, Scots who choose to maintain Britain, are relinquishing their political agency in favour of supporting the ethos and practice of English Tories. Not a healthy pastime*, IMHO.

National Identity – A Multiculturalist’s Approach

Abstract

‘Multiculturalists’ in Britain have advocated the importance of national identity since the 1970s, yet we know very little about the ways in which they do so. In this article, I will examine how one of Britain’s most prominent multiculturalists, Bhikhu Parekh, has advocated the importance of national identity since the 1970s. I will show that Parekh’s way of thinking about national identity is distinct from the ways in which other prominent thinkers discuss such an identity, and valuable, as Parekh has insights into what such an identity is and why we should value it. This article will thus identify a previously unnoticed, distinct and valuable way of thinking about national identity, which comes from a multiculturalist in Britain.

Phew! If I see another hypodermic needle in the next month or so I’ll scream. It’s not that it hurts, because it doesn’t, but first there is the waiting for appointments and then having to sit in waiting rooms waiting to get seen long after the appointed time. It is a real drag.

Onyway! To get to the point – Where does all this negativity about the EU come from? Claimed Yessers voting against indy because they imagine the EU is bad and claiming the EU treated Greece badly or that the EU is as bad as the UK it rubbish. Far to many Yessers are brainwashed by the MSM/SMSM and the Westminster Establishment’s lies.

In the first instance the EU cannot force anything upon any member state. The whole ethos of the EU is consensus and democracy and to that end every member state has both a vote and a veto.

So the Greek government knew the rules and did not meet the conditions they signed the people of Greece up to.

Then they attempted, much like the Westminster Establishment, to hold a gun at the EU’s head to have the other citizens of the EU finance their mismanagement with EU citizen’s funds.

They were repeatedly warned and refused to comply. The Greek government knew exactly what they were trying to do. They were trying to pull a fast one at everyone else’s expense.

Now consider this – they must have agreed to the conditions as they had not used their veto to stop those conditions being passed in the first place. In the second place you will note that the Greeks didn’t reinstate their own currency and then they didn’t leave the EU which, more or less, confirms they knew it was their fault and not that of either the EU or the EC Commissioners.

So there’s the truth – the EU cannot enforce anything upon member states and there are more than enough examples of member states NOT adopting EU directives.

For example Sweden has never adopted the Euro and Sweden is still in the EU. The United Kingdom did not adopt the Euro and continued to use the pound. Yet both Sweden & the UK must have voted for the Euro as both were members before the Euro was introduced so neither could have vetoed the Euro or there would have been no Euro.

Another myth is that the big member states rule the EU but the EU presidency changes every six months and by a, “Buggin’s Turn”, not an election and even the smallest member state gets its turn.

As to Scotland having to apply for membership – that too is not necessarily the case. The Member State is titled, “The United Kingdom”, but that describes a kingdom and not a country nor does it describe a union of countries – it describes a union of kingdoms. Furthermore there are only two equally sovereign kingdoms signatures on the Treaty of Union and that is an internationally recognised legal treaty.

These are legal facts. So, when/if it comes to the crunch and the United Kingdom, (NOT BRITAIN), exits the EU then the case will have to be faced that as the United Kingdom is NOT a single unified country, but is legally two equally sovereign partner kingdoms, then the EU must consider the legal standings or the EU will lose all credibility throughout the World.

The Westminster Establishments case will be that the United Kingdom is a single country and Westminster has full sovereignty. Holyrood’s case is that the United Kingdom is a bipartite union of equally sovereign kingdoms and thus Westminster has no legal right to force the Kingdom of Scotland out of a treaty that the Kingdom of Scotland is signed up to and, (this is also a legal fact), the EU has no rules, laws or legal mechanisms to take away an EU citizens citizenship without their permission.

That is the ethos of the EU. If it cannot guarantee to protect its citizens then the EU is worthless.

The EU would have to re-write many EU rules/laws to force Scots EU citizens out of the EU. It would obviously be far more just to accept that The United Kingdom is exactly what its title describes it as and for one partner kingdom to remain when the other leaves. With The Kingdom of Scotland remaining & the Kingdom of England, (all three countries of it), leaving.

That is that the United Kingdom ends abruptly with the EU accepting the Kingdom of Scotland as the legacy member state and the Kingdom of England sailing off into oblivion. Twa spuges wi ae stane.

The EU does not lose any member states, The Kingdom of England gets what it voted for. The Kingdom of Scotland gets what it voted for. Note that at present the EU is most concerned with there being no hard border between the two parts of the country of Ireland. Yet the MSM is presenting the United Kingdom as one country but if EU is looking at the country of Ireland being split. Obviously the EU does know the difference between a country and a kingdom.

Which means the only hard land border is between the Kingdom of Scotland and the Kingdom of England.

What’s not to like?

Derick fae Yell
also, tying eu membership to indyref2 risks promising something to the voters that isnt within our power to promise this.
we risk making the same mistake as indyref2. the eu has already said that an indy scotland would need to apply to re join which could take months perhaps years.
it will be evident to all during indyref2 that every moment out of the sm/cu will be very damaging and that getting back into the sm/cu with the greatest speed will be obvious to everyone, efta/eea offers the quickest route.

RE: all the typing about ‘brexit’ and Scotland’s way forward as a result of it.

Let’s revisit the SNP 2016 manifesto…

“We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people
– or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.”

The pertinant clause:-

“or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014”

If the UK government goes ahead next week with the arrogant assumption that they can overrule the Scottish Parliament’s decision not to go along with clause 11(?) of the withdrawal bill, then, to me, that constitutes “a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014”, thus a trigger for indyref2.

Robert Peffers
sorry to hear about your heath problems, get well soon mon ami.

i did say in my post that there is no way to enforce acceptance of the euro, but on this week last night, brillo etal agreed that even the proposal that the uk would even agree to making the commitment would be unacceptable. thus creating further problems for those advocating a 2nd euref.

my post was aimed at highlighting the problems of tying indyref2 to an eu membership which no longer exists and questioning the mandate to do so.

i believe that your point about the historical state of the uk is accurate but that the present position taken by the eu regarding newly emerging states, like catalonia, bavaria, brittany etc, is based on a pragmatic political expediency of the situation the eu finds itself in. Although the eu has feted Nicola in ways that they would never do for eg catalonian leaders, I think that this is as far as they will be willing to go and that the same political expediency will prevail for scotland until we vote yes. that is why they have stated that an indy scotland will need to rejoin as a new member via A49 on numerous occassions.

then again, after we vote yes, i have no doubt they will welcome us with open arms, why wouldnt they? but until then, we must plot a course which gives us the best chance of winning indyref2. i believe that efta tied to indyref2 will appeal to the largest number of voters.

robert, i am not negative about the eu, on the contrary, i believe in much greater eu integration, with elections for an eu president and the creation of eu armed forces. why? because if the shine has come off the eu in recent times due to their actions in catalonia and greece, then the same can also be said of nato and the un. once indy, there is nothing to stop scotland signing mutual defence treaties with other newly emerging countries like catalonia etc, even while we are still just efta members

i’m just a pragmatist who wants to win indyref2 and am putting forward proposal i believe will give us the best chance of doing so

“the EU has no rules, laws or legal mechanisms to take away an EU citizens citizenship without their permission.”

Actually it does. Specifically the second sentence of Article 20(1) of the Lisbon Treaty. “Every person holding the nationality of a Member State shall be a citizen of the Union. Citizenship of the Union shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship’

Therefore EU citizenship is contingent on being a citizen of a member state. If the state is no longer a member, EU citizenship lapses.

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