Bad deal or no-deal Brexit? There is a third way

LONDON — The U.K.’s Brexit options are sometimes framed as a choice between the miserable deal that Theresa May is trying to negotiate and crashing out of the EU with no deal. But there is a third option: not quitting the EU at all.

The main way to achieve this is for the people to get the final say at the end of the Brexit talks, with the option to stay in the EU if they don’t like what’s on offer.

But is it realistic to hold such a vote? Will parliament agree? Even if MPs do agree, won’t we run out of time given that we are supposed to leave the EU next March? And if there is enough time to hold a vote, why would the result be any different from the 2016 referendum?

Those of us fighting to halt the madness certainly face obstacles. But so do the alternatives — quitting with a deal or crashing out without one. And one of the three options ultimately will win out.

The EU would let the U.K. stay in the whole single market, but no Tory government could agree to free movement of people.

Look first at the problems of getting a deal. The EU won’t agree to May’s “Chequers” plan — which involves staying in the single market for goods but not for services and rejecting free movement of people. The other EU countries might conceivably agree some variation of this proposal, but if they do, the terms would be even more unpalatable for the U.K. Britain would probably end up following even more rules, without a vote on them, and paying into the EU’s budget.

What’s more, May would struggle to get MPs to back such a deal. The opposition and some pro-European Conservatives would be unhappy because pulling out of the single market for services, 80 percent of our economy, would damage prosperity. Hard-line Tories such as Boris Johnson would be angry because the U.K. would effectively become an EU colony. The public doesn’t like the look of the Chequers plan either, as it would be the worst of both worlds.

But what other alternatives are there? The EU would let the U.K. stay in the whole single market, but no Tory government could agree to free movement of people. It could also accept a Canada-style free-trade deal but only if there is a special arrangement to keep the Irish border open — and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which props up May’s government, won’t wear that.

What about the crash-out scenario? It too is strewn with obstacles. The prime minister doesn’t want it. Nor does her Cabinet or the opposition. Only a handful of extremist MPs do. What’s more, voters are increasingly scared of the prospect. They don’t want motorways turned into lorry parks, or food and drugs stockpiled.

Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

So look again at the obstacles in the way of stopping Brexit.

It’s true that there isn’t yet a majority in parliament to hold a people’s vote. But the Labour Party is under increasing pressure to back one, from its members, trade unions and voters.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would ideally like to defeat whatever proposal May produces and then have a general election. But he probably won’t get one and, if he doesn’t, a process of elimination is likely to drive him to support a new public vote. It would then take just 10-15 Tory MPs to break ranks with the prime minister to get a majority in favor of another vote.

It’s also true that it would be a stretch to hold a vote before March 29 next year. But this is not a killer objection. The EU has given smoke signals that the U.K. could delay its departure if it needs time to ask the people whether they still want Brexit.

There’s certainly no guarantee that voters could be convinced that it’s best to stay in the EU. But public opinion has already shifted by about 5 percentage points since the referendum, according to polls — meaning that there is now a small majority in favour of stopping Brexit.

What’s more, some voters still cling to the hope that Brits can have “our cake and eat it,” as Johnson put it. Once the talks are finished, it will be much harder to maintain this fantasy. There will either be a deal that damages our prosperity and our power; or there will be the frightful prospect of the abyss.

A good campaign that also articulates a positive vision for the U.K. inside the EU could shift yet more chunks of opinion our way — not least since the chief defender of any deal is likely to be the prime minister and she is not known for her campaigning skills.

At the end of the day, the U.K. will either quit with a deal, quit without a deal or not quit at all. If either of the first two options was plain sailing, the chances of stopping Brexit would be slim. But they are not. As a result, the chances of not quitting at all are fairly high and rising.