Leaving aside the chances of winning the seat, it's not entirely clear whether he is actually eligible to run for senator in the first place, Australian legal experts say.

Eligibility

According to the Commonwealth Electoral Act of 1918, to run for a congressional seat, a person needs to be at least 18 years old, an Australian citizen, and be eligible to vote. The first two requirements aren't a problem for the 41-year-old Australian-born Assange. The real hurdle is the third.

Anne Twomey, a professor of constitutional law from the University of Sydney Law School, explained that the Electoral Act identifies two types of people as eligible: an Australian resident, and an "overseas elector." The provision that regulates overseas electors is "long and complicated," Twomey wrote in an email to Mashable. "The gist of it, however, is that if you leave Australia and intend to return to reside there within 6 years, then you can enroll to vote as an eligible overseas voter."

Graeme Orr, a professor at the University of Queensland who gave Assange and his legal team "research advice" around six months ago regarding an eventual Senate run, is also skeptical of Assange's voter eligibility.

According to Orr, Assange is not currently a registered voter, and hasn't been registered for some time. Australian Law, states that only a citizen who has been living abroad for less than three years can be eligible to register as an overseas voter. Assange would need to prove that he returned to Australia in the last three years, and thus resided there however briefly, to qualify.

Provided he can avoid this obstacle, Assange still needs to prove that he has an intention to come back to Australia within six years. And that's not a given either.

Twomey is doubtful that Assange can convince the electoral commission that he wants to return to Australia, given that he has lived almost abroad for almost six years. And if Assange can't qualify as an eligible overseas voter, he can't run at all.

Constitutional Prohibitions

Assuming the electoral commission deems Assange eligible, there could be two other problems. The Australian constitution forbids certain people from running for the House or Senate.

One such exclusion is a person who "...has been convicted and is under sentence, or subject to be sentenced, for any offense punishable under the law of the Commonwealth or of a State by imprisonment for one year or longer."

Assange is facing allegations of sexual assault in Sweden, and there are persistent rumors of a grand jury investigation in the United States.

"A court may well interpret this provision as applying only to cases were the person is convicted and sentenced under a law of the Commonwealth or a law of the State," said Twomey. "Conviction and sentence in Sweden may be insufficient to trigger it. However, the issue has so far never arisen and has not been tested in the courts."

For Orr, though, there's a second, more concerning, issue. The Constitution also forbids a person who "is under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power."

Since Assange has been granted asylum by the Ecuadorian government, "there's a strong argument that having asylum in another country is an acknowledgement of allegiance to the other country because you're receiving diplomatic protection,” Orr said in a telephone interview with Mashable.

But Just Maybe...

Let's assume, though, that all these issues are solved and Assange is considered eligible. Then he runs, and wins the seat. What happens next? After all, he's locked up in the Ecuadorian embassy of London, with British authorities threatening to arrest him as soon as he steps out.

According to The Age, if Assange couldn't come back to Australia, a "nominee" would occupy his seat. Twomey explained that in this case somebody else from his own political party would be appointed to replace him.

However, every elected senator needs to swear an oath before taking his seat.

"Assuming that Mr Assange did not return to Australia to take the oath, he would not have 'taken' his seat," said Twomey. In this case, another member of his party probably wouldn't be able to take his place either. "It is unclear to me, then, whether or not he could resign his seat, having not taken it," Twomey said.

Follow the Money

Considering all these ifs and question marks, one wonders why Assange would bother to try what both Twomey, Orr and others consider an unlikely endeavor.

First of all, publicity.

A Senate run would put Wikileaks back in the news and attract a lot of attention. Also, Assange has always said he'd like to pressure the Australian government and prime minister Julia Gillard into showing more support for the Wikileaks organization and Assange personally.

Second, there's the money. In Australia, explained Orr, for every vote you receive in an election, your party earns approximately $2.50 US dollars. Even capturing a small percentage of the vote would net the hypothetical Wikileaks party a good deal of cash. And that's not counting all the donations it could get before the election.

So what's actually going to happen? “The most likely outcome, the easiest thing, would be to set up a political party and attract some media attention and electoral support," said Orr, who notes that launching a party in Australia, where there's no two party system and there's a proportional representation system, is relatively easy. "But for Assange personally, he's got some hurdles.”

One thing winning a senate seat will most definitely not do is help Assange with his legal troubles. "That wouldn't give him any particular immunity, he's not a diplomat," said Orr.

Photo via Carl Court/AFP/Getty Images.

Correction: A previous version of this story stated that Graeme Orr said Assange had never been a registered voter, whereas he said he isn't currently a registered voter. Also, a correction has been made to clarify that Orr gave Assange and his legal team "research advice."

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