3. “If the Director of the OMB’s 2013 report says that a shortfall
exists [in the repayment of TARP], I win. Otherwise, I lose. The
stakes: I will make up to five $100 bets at even odds.” (here) Date: 10/07/08. Status: open.

5. “At any point between now and January 2016, if there is a year/year
increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then you
[Bryan Caplan] pay me at that time $100. If we get to January 2016,
and there has not been any 12-month stretch in which the above
happened, then I [Bob Murphy] pay you $100 at that time.” (here) Date: 12/14/09. Status: open.

6. “I predict that Republicans will regain
control of at least one branch of the federal government at some point
between now and January 20, 2017 (two inaugurations from now). So
Arnold, how about a $100 bet at even odds? [bet accepted]” (here) Date: 05/19/09. Status: open.

7. “I will bet $100, even odds, that the U.S. price of gas
(including taxes) in the first week of January, 2018 will be $3.00 or
less in 2008 dollars.” (here) Date: 01/01/08. Status: open.

8. “If the total number of deaths in France from riots and terrorism
is less than 500 between May 28, 2008 and May 28, 2018, Franck owes me
$50. If the total number is 500 or more, I owe him $50.” (here) Date: 05/28/08. Status: open.

9. “The stake is $US100 and the agreed criterion is that, for Bryan
to win, the average Eurostat harmonised unemployment rate for the EU-15
over the period 2009-2018 inclusive should exceed that for the US by at
least 1.5 percentage points.” (here) Date: 05/28/09. Status: open.

10. “If any current EU member with a population over 10 million
people in 2007 [Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania,
Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, the Czech Republic, and
Hungary] officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I
willy pay you $100. Otherwise, you owe me $100.” (here) Date: 04/26/08. Status: open.

Any he’s missed? And which have intervening events made me most likely to lose? I’m most worried about #3, because so many legislative changes have happened that it’s unclear what the OMB’s reporting responsibilities in 2013 will be. I always knew I was putting myself at the mercy of the government’s self-monitoring, but I decided the case against was so strong that even moderate chicanery wouldn’t stop me from winning.

Sep 9 2010 at 2:00pm

Sep 9 2010 at 2:28pm

“They did take into account how right/wrong one side will be.”

No, they are all binary true/false bets. For the Ron Paul example, a how right / how wrong bet would say something like, “I bet that Ron Paul wins at least X electoral college votes, and if not, I’ll pay you proportional to the discrepancy between observed and predicted votes.”

We want to know not just what someone thinks will happen, but to what extent that thing will happen — or if they’re wrong, how wrong will they be.

Just take the “Republicans in control” bet — that has very different real-world implications if they only control 50%+1 of the Senators and Representatives, vs. 100%. That’s the point of forecasting — to get a feel for what the atmosphere, climate, or zeitgeist will feel like.

Noah Yetter

Sep 9 2010 at 3:19pm

Salem

Sep 9 2010 at 4:41pm

Noah – even if Greece withdraws from the Euro, there is no way it withdraws from the EU.

Looking at the bets:

#1 you’ve won.
#2 you’ve basically won.
#3 I do not know enough to comment.
#4 You must surely win, or we are all doomed.
#5 I am unsure who is betting on what. But if we have 10% inflation, it implies that the government is taking aggressive measures to make sure you win bet 4. These bets are not independent!
#6 seems like a no-brainer. You might even win this in November.
#7 I think you will lose this one badly. Even if you are right about the exchange rate, I predict you will be crushed on the tax rate.
#8 Something big and nasty would have to happen for you to lose this one. But big and nasty things do sometimes happen, and 8 years is a long time.
#9 I do not know enough to comment.
#10 I cannot imagine you losing. 10 years is a long time, but even so.

By 2015 there will be 5,000 people living at sea in a sustainable economy (net wealth of those aboard is not consumed by being at sea, and no more donations) who are not citizens of any currently recognized country.

I’d bet against with 2:1 odds. If the deadline was 2025 I’d still bet against but only at even odds.

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