Passing Game Thoughts: Carolina has the league’s 11th-ranked
passing offense, led by likely rookie of the year Cam Newton.
His passing and rushing exploits have made him a valuable fantasy
entity and likely top fantasy draft pick for years. He has thrown
multiple touchdowns in each of his last three games, and even
though wideout Steve Smith had just nine yards on a single catch
last week, he’s fourth in the NFL in receiving yards.

The Saints have the 30th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, are tied
for 18th in passing touchdowns allowed, are 23rd in opponents
quarterback rating and are tied for the second-fewest interceptions
in the league. When Newton played them back in Week 5, he had
224 yards and two touchdowns with one interception while also
running for 27 yards and one score. Six of the last seven starting
quarterbacks they’ve faced have thrown for at least 280
yards, and in their last six games, five different wide receivers
have had games of at least 125 receiving yards.

Running Game Thoughts: The Panthers are third in the NFL in total
rushing yards, but lead the league with 25 scores on the ground.
Fourteen of those have come from Newton, but DeAngelo Williams
and Jonathan Stewart have gotten into the mix as well. Though
Stewart is running for 5.1 yards per carry, he has just three
touchdowns. But Williams has seven, with four of those coming
in his team’s last three games.

New Orleans has the NFL’s 10th-ranked run defense, and they’re
tied for 11th in rushing scores given up, but opponents do gash
them for big plays. The Saints are allowing an average of 4.8
yards per rush, which is 28th in the league. Williams ran for
115 yards and one score against them in Week 5, though Stewart
was held to just 20 yards. The Saints have held some of the league’s
best runners to mediocre totals recently, starting in Week 14,
when Chris Johnson managed only 23 yards on 11 carries. Adrian
Peterson then had only 60 yards, and last week Michael Turner
could muster just 39 yards.

Passing Game Thoughts: Saints quarterback Drew Brees broke Dan
Marino’s NFL record for passing yards in a season, and still
has this game to play. He’s thrown for at least 300 yards
and two scores in each of his last six contests, and should be
a serious candidate for league MVP. His team’s weaponry
at receiver is second-to-none, with fantasy options up and down
the lineup, most notably receiver Marques Colston and tight end
Jimmy Graham, who is third in the NFL with 91 receptions, fourth
with 10 touchdowns and eighth with 1,213 receiving yards. Fantasy
owners should keep in mind that wideout Lance Moore may not play
this week due to an injury he suffered against the Falcons last
week.

Carolina is 21st in the league in pass defense and tied for 18th
in scores allowed through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have
a rating of 94.2 when playing the Panthers, which is the fifth-highest
in the NFL, and QBs are also completing 63.5 percent of their
passes, which is the third-highest mark in the league. Brees was
32-of-45 for 359 yards with two touchdowns against them in Week
5, and though no Saints wideout had a big game against them, Graham
did have 129 yards on eight catches.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram has missed three straight games
with an injury, but he has practiced this week and should play,
though it seems likely that he won’t get a lot of carries.
That should leave Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles to handle most
of the work, and those three, along with Chris Ivory, have led
the Saints to the league’s ninth-ranked rushing offense.
But considering how much the team spreads around their carries,
Sproles is probably the only one who is fantasy-worthy due to
his receiving prowess.

Though they’ve been better recently, the Panthers have struggled
all season to contain the run. They are 21st in the league in
rush defense, 24th in yards per carry allowed, and have given
up 17 scores on the ground, which is more than all but two other
NFL teams. In Week 5, Ingram had 32 yards and one touchdown, and
Sproles had 51 rushing yards and 40 receiving yards. But that
was one of just three games this season in which the Panthers
have held an individual running back to fewer than 75 yards in
a game.

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh Freeman had 274 passing yards last
week against the Panthers, which was the first time in three games
that he’s been over 200 yards. He had only one touchdown
throw last week and hasn’t had multiple touchdown passes
in four games. Tight end Kellen Winslow is probably the most consistent
pass-catching threat on the Tampa squad, but that isn’t
saying much since he usually doesn’t get much more than
50 yards and has scored just twice this season. Fantasy owners
should stay away from all Tampa players.

The Falcons are 19th in the NFL against the pass and tied for
18th in passing touchdowns allowed. Atlanta is solid in other
areas of pass defense, as they’re tied for 13th in interceptions
and 14th in opponents’ completion percentage. Freeman had
only 180 passing yards when the teams played in Week 3, and also
failed to throw a touchdown while tossing two interceptions. The
307 yards Atlanta allowed to Drew Brees last week was the most
they’d given up since Week 10, but they did allow another
touchdown to a tight end, and that makes four TDs by a tight end
in Atlanta’s last four contests.

Running Game Thoughts: LeGarrette Blount has disappeared from
fantasy relevance in recent games, and last week carried the rock
twice for 11 yards. He had nine carries for 21 yards in the week
before that, so fantasy owners who had been relying on him were
likely burned in the most important weeks of the season. Kraig
Lumpkin had seven carries for 24 yards last week and has been
a reliable pass-catching threat out of the team’s backfield,
but that doesn’t make him worthy of a spot on fantasy rosters.

Atlanta’s run defense has been a strength of theirs all
season. They are eighth in the NFL in run defense and have allowed
10 scores on the ground this season, which is tied for 11th in
the league. Blount accounted for 81 rushing yards against the
Falcons in Week 3, but as we mentioned, he’s done absolutely
nothing recently, and Atlanta has allowed just four rushers to
gain more than 70 yards on the ground all year.

Passing Game Thoughts: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had an average
start to the season, but has come on extremely strong of late.
He threw for 371 yards and a touchdown last week, and has now
thrown for at least 260 yards in seven of his last eight games,
while not throwing an interception in five of his last six outings.
Receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones continue to make a big fantasy
impact, and tight end Tony Gonzalez is third at his position in
fantasy points. Each should be a solid contributor once again
this week.

The Buccaneers are hideous against the pass – they’re
24th in pass defense, but only one team in the league has allowed
more passing scores than they have. They have the fewest sacks
in the NFL, have allowed the seventh-highest completion percentage
(62.6) and the third-highest passer rating (97.1). Ryan shredded
them for 307 yards in Week 3, and although he only threw one score,
he managed to spread the ball around. White had 140 receiving
yards, Jones had 115, and though Gonzalez had only 18 yards, he
did catch the touchdown pass from Ryan, so fantasy owners with
all three players had to be happy. Assuming Ryan plays the entire
game, he should be in for a big day against a Tampa pass defense
that has allowed each of the last two starting quarterbacks they’ve
faced to throw three touchdown passes.

Running Game Thoughts: Although Michael Turner is sixth in the
NFL in rushing yards this season, the Falcons have just the 20th-ranked
rushing offense in the league. Turner had been a fantasy stud
for the year’s first half, but his lack of production over
his last five games is disconcerting. He’s only rushed for
one score in those games, and hasn’t broken the 80-yard
mark. Still, the Bucs run defense is so bad he’ll have an
opportunity to do some damage this week.

Along with the Rams, Tampa has one of the league’s two worst
run defenses. They are 31st in rushing yards given up this year,
29th in yards per carry allowed (4.9), and dead last in rushing
scores allowed. That makes their Week 3 shutdown of Turner all
the more surprising. He had only 20 yards on 11 carries in that
game, but should be much better this week, especially considering
that since then, the Bucs have allowed eight different running
backs to compile at least 80 rushing yards in a game against them.

Passing Game Thoughts: Dan Orlovsky has led the Colts to consecutive
wins, but probably hasn’t led fantasy teams to any. He had
241 passing yards and one score last week against Houston, but
just 82 yards in his previous game, and 136 the week before. Receiver
Reggie Wayne was a star against the Texans, with 106 yards and
one touchdown, but it was too little too late for fantasy owners
who likely had him on their bench for that game due to his lack
of production all season.

Only six teams have a better pass defense this season than the
Jaguars, who are tied for 11th in touchdowns allowed through the
air. However, they are 18th in passer rating allowed, and 29th
in completion percentage allowed, with opposing quarterbacks hitting
on 63.2 percent of their throws this year. Orlovsky took over
for Curtis Painter the last time these two teams met, back in
Week 10, and threw for 67 yards on 7-of-10 passing. Wayne had
only 13 receiving yards in that game, with Pierre Garcon amassing
30, but the Colts are obviously playing much better since then.

Running Game Thoughts: Donald Brown had been playing well and
giving fantasy owners a reason to put him in their lineups, but
last week against Houston, the script was flipped, and it was
Joseph Addai who got the bulk of the carries. He had 19 for 59
yards, while Brown toted the rock just 11 times for 39 yards.
It’s impossible to predict which back will be the team’s
main ball carrier this week, so if at all possible, fantasy owners
should look elsewhere for their RB2 or flex option.

Jacksonville has been very good in holding teams down in the running
game, as they rank 11th in the league in that statistic, and sixth
in yards per carry allowed (3.9). But they have trouble stopping
teams near the goal line, and are just 21st in rushing scores
allowed this year. Brown did not score against them in Week 10,
but did run for 51 yards. In the six games since then, the Jags
have allowed a rushing score to every starting running back they’ve
faced except one.

Passing Game Thoughts: There is no passing game in Jacksonville,
a team that ranks dead last in passing offense. Rookie quarterback
Blaine Gabbert has struggled mightily at times, and the team has
absolutely zero fantasy options at wideout or tight end. There
really isn’t much else to say other than any fantasy owner
should know not to touch a Jaguars player not named Maurice Jones-Drew.

The Colts are 22nd in the league against the pass, and tied for
22nd in passing scores given up. Other numbers surrounding the
team’s pass defense speak to just how bad they are in that
area of the game – only three teams have amassed fewer sacks,
only the Vikings have fewer interceptions or allowed a higher
passer rating, and opposing quarterbacks are completing an astounding
71.7 percent of their throws against Indy, which is the highest
mark in the league. Gabbert only threw for 118 yards against them
in Week 10, but he did have one touchdown pass, to Dillard. But
in reality the Colts shouldn’t have too much trouble against
the worst receiving corps in the NFL.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew is the Jacksonville
offense, and as such leads the NFL with 1,437 rushing yards while
also scoring eight touchdowns. He had 103 yards and one score
last week against the Titans, and has run for less than 80 yards
on only one occasion this season. He’s also adept at catching
the ball out of the backfield, and has been a fantasy star from
day one this year.

Though Indianapolis has held opposing runners to a respectable
4.2 yards per carry, which is 16th in the NFL, they are 29th in
rushing yards allowed, and have given up the second-most rushing
scores in the league. That’s bad news considering they are
facing Jones-Drew. He throttled them for 114 yards and one touchdown
in Week 10, and since then the Colts have given up 139 yards and
two touchdowns to the combination of DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan
Stewart, 149 rushing/receiving yards and one score to Ray Rice,
109 rushing/receiving yards to Chris Johnson, and 158 rushing
yards and one touchdown to Arian Foster.

Passing Game Thoughts: Though Matt Hasselbeck threw for 350 yards
last week against Jacksonville, he only tossed one touchdown with
a pair of interceptions. He’s not to be trusted by fantasy
owners, especially this week against the tough Houston pass defense.
We do have to note that tight end Jared Cook had 169 receiving
yards and one touchdown last week, and has had consecutive 100-yard
receiving games, but the Texans clamp down on opposing tight ends,
and any expectations of a third straight great game from Cook
need to be tempered.

Houston has been dominant against the pass all season. The Texans
are tied for second in the NFL in pass defense, tied for fourth
in passing touchdowns allowed, are ninth in interceptions, sixth
in sacks, and no team in the league has held opposing quarterbacks
to a lower rating (66.2) or completion percentage (51.1). Hasselbeck
struggled mightily against the Texans in Week 7, throwing for
only 104 yards and one touchdown with one interception. Since
then, Houston has only allowed one quarterback to throw for multiple
scores in a game.

Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson had been either great or
terrible for most of the season, but in his last two games he’s
simply been mediocre. He ran for 55 yards two weeks ago, and then
ran for 56 yards last week. He has a total of 134 rushing yards
over his last three games, and like his quarterback, isn’t
much of a trustworthy option against a very good Texans run defense.

The Texans’ run defense has been just as good as their pass
defense this season. Only three teams have allowed fewer yards
on the ground than Houston, and only two teams have given up fewer
rushing scores. Johnson had one of his terrible performances this
season in Week 7 against the Texans, with a lousy 18 yards on
10 carries. In the eight games from Week 8 on, only two runners
have managed to gain at least 65 yards against Houston, so this
figures to be another difficult week for Johnson.

Passing Game Thoughts: T.J. Yates has seen his production wane
in each of his last three games. He threw for 300 yards with two
touchdowns in Week 14, 212 yards in Week 15 and 132 yards last
week in his team’s loss to the Colts. Houston’s receiving
corps has done little in most of those contests, but could get
a big boost if wide receiver Andre Johnson returns to the lineup.
Even if he doesn’t get a full allotment of snaps, fantasy
owners should insert him into their own lineups because he’s
so dangerous near the goal line.

The Titans are average against the pass, coming in at 16th in
the league, but have allowed just 20 passing scores, which is
tied for 11th. They don’t create many turnovers, with only
11 interceptions, which ranks 24th in the league, and are only
23rd in completion percentage allowed (62.1). Matt Schaub played
when these two teams met in Week 7, throwing for 296 yards and
two scores, but Johnson didn’t. His return could buoy a
receiving corps that is in need of a shot in the arm.

Running Game Thoughts: Houston trails only the Denver Broncos
in rushing offense, and have piled up over 150 yards per game
on the ground. Arian Foster is the bell cow, and his 158 yards
and one score last week gave him 1,224 rushing yard this season
(third in the league) and 10 rushing scores (tied for fifth).
But Ben Tate can be dangerous as well, despite his hideous performance
against the Colts that netted him minus-one rushing yards. He’s
a solid flex option this week because Foster may get some rest
as the playoffs approach.

Though Tennessee is 24th in the league against the run, and opponents
are rushing for 4.4 yards per carry (21st in the NFL), the Titans
are stopping the run when it counts, and have allowed just nine
scores on the ground this season, which is tied for sixth-fewest
in the league. Foster is one of seven running backs to have gained
at least 100 yards against the Titans this year, with each coming
from Week 5 on. He not only had 115 rushing yards and two scores
back in Week 7, but 119 receiving yards and a touchdown as well.
Tate got into the act too, with 104 rushing yards of his own.
In fact, every starting running back from an AFC South team has
had a game with at least 100 yards against the Titans, and two
of the four starting running backs from the NFC South that Tennessee
played this year had 100-yard games.

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick will get one last chance
to show the Buffalo brass that he is worth the money owed on the
contract extension he signed after a fast start to the season.
Fitzpatrick is a gutsy player that refuses to slide when on the
run, and with a Harvard education, you know he’s a heady
player. However, he just doesn’t have the arm strength or
accuracy to be a franchise quarterback. Stevie Johnson will be
going all out in his last game before he reaches free agency.
Johnson doesn’t possess elite speed, but he runs solid routes
and is strong to the ball and with the ball in his hands. As their
only playmaker in the passing game, the Bills need to retain him;
but will they pay him what he thinks he’s worth? This passing
game could potentially look a whole lot different next season—but
the Fitz–Johnson combo could still have one big game left
in it against an extremely poor pass defense.

The Pats finished the 2010 season ranked 30th in pass defense
and are all but locked into finishing at an even worse 32nd this
season. They have allowed almost 300 yards passing per game and
24 touchdowns on the season. This porous unit could potentially
be their Achilles’ heal in the postseason, but there’s
little than can be done about it now.

Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Spiller spent some time during the
mid-season lining up as the slot receiver for the Bills. Perhaps
this had more to do with the team’s decimated receiving
corps than the notion that they have given up on him as a runner,
but if the team did have doubts about Spiller’s future as
a running back, he gets one last chance to dispel those concerns.
He has performed reasonably well since Fred Jackson went down
and has given the team some leverage in what may be heated negotiations
with the veteran back this offseason. Spiller, even by coach Gailey’s
own admissions, likely cannot hold up as a full-time feature back,
but he has shown that he can contribute on 15-18 touches per game
and can be the lead back in a committee with a solid power runner.

As you would expect by the passing yards allowed listed above,
the Pats don’t give up many yards on the ground. The team
is only allowing 117.5 yards per game, but the 4.6 yards per carry
they allow puts them in the bottom third of the league. Spiller
should be able to take advantage of this defense and strengthen
his chance to enter next season with an expanded role.

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady should be the second quarterback
in as many weeks to pass Dan Marino’s long-standing record
for passing yards in a season. Brady has been virtually unstoppable
despite the fact that the much ballyhooed offseason acquisition,
Chad Ochocinco, has not done much of anything on the field. Veteran
Wes Welker and second-year tight ends Rob Gronkowski—who
set the NFL record for touchdowns by a tight end—and Aaron
Hernandez have been the focal points of this offense that lacks
a deep threat. Brady has mastered the short passing game, and
the run-after-the-catch abilities of the aforementioned trio has
allowed the Pats to make big plays in the passing game.

The Bills’ pass defense was very opportunistic against
Brady in Week 3. He uncharacteristically threw four interceptions
in that game, which was the main reason Buffalo was able to pull
off the upset. While the Bills have been able to create turnovers,
their pass defense has been mostly abysmal since that contest.
On the season they have allowed 27 passing touchdowns. Brady should
be good for at least three more this week.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s starting to look like Bill
Belichick is going to use rookie running back Steven Ridley as
his feature back in the postseason, as the former LSU Tiger has
quietly been taking over for the solid but unspectacular BenJarvus
Green-Ellis in recent weeks. The Pats don’t run nearly enough
to support a fantasy RB that can be depended on each week, but
Ridley is a guy to keep an eye on for playoff leagues and especially
in dynasty league circles.

The Buffalo run defense was the worst in the league last year
and have only improved slightly to 28th in 2011. The team did
make some moves to help out during this past offseason, specifically
drafting defensive lineman Marcell Dareus and signing former Packer
linebacker Nick Barnett, but there’s obviously plenty of
work to be done this upcoming offseason as well.

Passing Game Thoughts: Mark Sanchez is having a fairly decent
season from a fantasy perspective—aided by his six rushing
touchdowns—but is still making the poor decisions that frustrate
fans, coaches, and front office personnel. Sanchez needs a good
performance in Week 17 to quiet his critics, even if the Jets
do fail to make the playoffs after having handed their fate over
to other playoff contenders. Santonio Holmes has had a productive
second half to the season, but he has also had his share of costly
mistakes in recent weeks. Local talk is that offensive coordinator
Brian Schottenheimer will be the “fall guy” for the
team’s struggles, especially after having Sanchez drop back
over 60 times last week. In that light, expect the reigns to be
pulled in on the passing game this week as Schottenheimer attempts
to correct the mistakes of last week.

Miami is ranked 26th against the pass, having allowed 249.8 passing
ypg and 22 passing touchdowns. If Sanchez fails against this unit
in a must-win game, expect the “Peyton Manning to New York”
chatter to get a little louder during the offseason.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jets have been very effective running
the ball the last couple of weeks, yet they have inexplicably
abandoned the run even when the games have still been within reach.
Running back Shonn Green doesn’t have a lot of wiggle or
quickness, but when the O-line opens up holes for him, he is very
effective at putting his head down and gaining positive yards
after contact. The Jets need to get back to their identity of
“ground and pound” next season and will certainly
look to end the season on a strong note with their running game.

Miami, however, has played the run very well and will make it
difficult for the Jets to do what they want. The team has allowed
only 93.4 ypg and just eight rushing touchdowns on the season
behind strong play from Karlos Dansby, Kevin Burnett, and safety
Yeremiah Bell. The team would like nothing more than to end the
season of one of its most hated rivals.

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Moore started his career with Miami
in Week 4 challenging Darrelle Revis by constantly connecting
with wide receiver Brandon Marshall. He will now end his season
hoping that a strong game against Revis and New York earns him
a chance at holding on to the starting gig next season. Marshall
has to be rooting for Moore to be back, as the gunslinger has
taken the most shots downfield Marshall has seen through his time
in South Beach—and that has led Marshall to one of his best
seasons as a pro.

The New York Jets are the fifth-ranked passing defense, having
allowed 205.9 ypg and only 14 touchdowns on the season. Darrelle
Revis continues to be a matchup nightmare for opposing wide receivers,
with only Marshall and Buffalo’s Stevie Johnson enjoying
any success against him this year. Revis returned a Moore interception
100 yards for a touchdown the last time these two teams met, and
in what could be a tight game this week, a repeat performance
would go a long way toward helping the Jets’ playoff chances.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week Reggie Bush added another 113
yards to what was already his career high in rushing yards. He
is finally having the season that everyone thought he could when
New Orleans made him the second overall pick in the 2006 draft.
A touchdown this week would also establish a career high in rushing
touchdowns for Bush. Bush has 1,086 yards rushing and six touchdowns
on the ground in what can only be considered one of the biggest
surprises of 2011.

The Jets have allowed 17 touchdowns on the ground this season,
so Bush just may be able to break his career high in rushing touchdowns.
The Jets have stepped up their run defense after a slow start
to the season, but their lack of speed on defense still makes
them vulnerable against quick running backs like Bush.

Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick has the Eagles’ offense
back on track, but it’s the classic case of “too little
too late” as Philadelphia was eliminated from playoff contention
last week. DeSean Jackson may be playing in his last game as an
Eagle this Sunday, as he’s under-achieved in a contract
season and his lack of effort may have soured the Eagles on committing
to him at the price he’ll be seeking. Brent Celek continues
to roll through the second half of the season, re-establishing
himself as one of the Eagle’s most productive pass catchers.
He can take advantage of the Redskins’ soft middle-of-the-field
coverages.

The Redskins enter the final week as the 11th-ranked pass defense
on a yards-allowed-per-game basis (215.9) and have allowed 19
passing touchdowns. Their secondary is talented, but the real
difference between this season and last is their ability to rush
the passer. Rookie Ryan Kerrigan has helped free up Brian Orakpo
from the double teams he was seeing last year, and former Rams
defensive lineman Adam Carriker has resurrected his career in
Washington. The porous Eagles O-line should be little match for
the Washington pass rush.

Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy has thrived this season with
the opportunity to handle carries at the goal line, a role that
many thought the more physical Ronnie Brown would handle. McCoy
has 17 rushing touchdowns this season, despite the presence of
two quarterbacks that are strong red-zone runners in Michael Vick
and Vince Young. McCoy has been the most dominant fantasy running
back in 2011, but his high number of short-yardage touchdowns
could plummet next season, so owners should keep that in mind.

Washington has allowed 120.6 ypg and 14 touchdowns but is still
playing tough on the defensive side of the football. Linebackers
Rocky McIntosh and London Fletcher are solid veterans who play
the run well and will not be looking past this game to the offseason.

Passing Game Thoughts: Rex Grossman continues to show that he’s
an adequate NFL quarterback when he plays mistake-free football,
and he has done more good than bad after taking his job back from
John Beck. Grossman has even made journeyman Jabar Gaffney fantasy-relevant
while keeping Santana Moss owner’s happy as well. Some Washington
beat writers have suggested that Grossman may have impressed the
Shanahans enough to hold the fort down next season until whichever
young quarterback Washington drafts is ready for action. Of course
that could change depending on how high the Redskins draft a quarterback
and if they end up signing a free agent this offseason.

The Eagles have done a good job of limiting their oppositions’
passing yards (206.8 ypg), but they have allowed the sixth most
touchdown receptions in the league with 26. The Eagles shouldn’t
have very much trouble with Moss and Gaffney, who are solid targets
but are no longer very athletic. The loss of Fred Davis and Chris
Cooley leaves Washington with no legitimate pass catcher at the
tight end position, which will allow Philly to concentrate their
efforts on the outside.

Running Game Thoughts: I’ve often said in this piece that
just when it seems as if you’ve figured out Mike Shananhan’s
running back rotation, he’ll throw you a curve ball. Well,
after a stretch of nice games from rookie Roy Helu, it was fellow
rookie Evan Royster breaking the 100-yard mark last week for the
Skins. At least this time fantasy owners were aware that Helu
was banged up and would be limited, so they had a chance to keep
him out of their lineups. Helu is expected back this week, but
don’t be surprised if Shanahan is content to give Royster
another look and see what he has for the 2012 season.

Passing Game Thoughts: The Giants’ beat-up and underperforming
secondary will be facing what is arguably the most talented trio
of pass catchers in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten
this Sunday night in New Jersey. To make matters worse, during
the middle of the season when Austin missed games, journeyman
Laurent Robinson stepped up big time and is now the best fourth
option in the league. Tony Romo will have no excuses this week
if he falters in yet another big game. Of course Romo’s
reputation for “choking” in big games is overblown,
but the perception is out there, and this game presents an opportunity
for him to dispel that misconception. Romo will need every bit
of his mobility and quick release against a pass rush that has
finally started to live up to it’s potential and may be
getting Osi Umeniorya back.

As mentioned, the Giants’ secondary is very susceptible
to the pass. Their vaunted pass rush, however, stepped up big
time last week at Met Life Stadium against the home team Jets.
Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul has played like a beast in recent
weeks, and Justin Tuck finally looked like he was as healthy as
he’s been in a long time. The Giants will need to get to
Romo often. If they don’t, the big, fast Dallas wide receivers
will be spending a lot of time in the end zone.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys are down to two healthy backs
in Felix Jones and 34-year-old Sammy Morris, and Jones has been
dealing with a hamstring injury the last two weeks. Suffice it
to say, the run is not likely to be a big part of the Dallas game
plan this week. Although Morris is fresh and has looked surprisingly
spry for his age, the Giants should be able to keep him in check
despite their recent struggles.
The New York defense has allowed 126.1 ypg on the ground and 15
rushing touchdowns. While they’ve struggled most of the
season—including last week, where the unit was bailed out
by the Jets’ inexplicably abandoning the run in the second
half—they should give a great effort in a must-win game
against a Cowboys team with a decimated backfield.

Passing Game Thoughts: The Giants’ passing game is starting
to show some chinks in the armor with Mario Manningham and tight
end Jake Ballard missing time in recent weeks and Hakeem Nicks
dropping passes he shouldn’t. Eli Manning has struggled
a bit the last two weeks as well, but at least he has been aided
tremendously by second-year wide receiver Victor Cruz, who has
emerged into a big-time playmaker. Cruz has been one of the most
surprising players in the league, with over 1,300 yards receiving
and eight touchdowns on the year. He has nice size and speed and
is a skilled runner after the catch. He also has a tendency to
make big plays out of nothing, like his 99-yard touchdown reception
against the Jets where he caught a short pass between two defenders,
broke through, and was off to the races down the sideline, avoiding
a diving attempt by safety Erik Smith along the way. At this point
in the season, it would be wise for the Cowboys to focus some
defensive attention his way.

The Dallas secondary has been banged up at times this season,
but even when healthy, it’s left a lot to be desired. The
team is ranked 23rd against the pass, having allowed 238.3 ypg
and 21 touchdowns on the season. Eli Manning was able to light
this defense up for 400 yards and two touchdowns three weeks ago.
Despite the fact that it was Manningham and Ballard, two players
who may miss this week, that caught the touchdowns in that game,
it’s not a stretch to think Manning can take advantage of
the Dallas secondary again this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw looked better last week
than he has in any game since returning from his cracked foot,
but he is still not 100 percent. The Giants will need him healthy
if they have any hopes of getting into and advancing in the playoffs.
Brandon Jacobs scored twice against the Cowboys in Dallas, but
consistency from game to game has been a problem for him all year.
Jacobs is always pumped up to play the Cowboys and he’s
at his best when he’s playing with some anger, so expect
him to make some noise—and not just with his big, fat mouth.

The Cowboys’ aggressive run defense has otherwise kept
most opposing runners in check. They are currently ranked in the
top-10, having given up only 98.6 ypg and just nine rushing touchdowns
on the season. While Eli may have his way with the Cowboys secondary,
it will be important for the Giants to establish at least some
threat of a running game—especially with their having limited
weapons to work with in the passing game.

Passing Game Thoughts: What a travesty that Matthew Stafford
got hosed for a Pro Bowl bid. And for Eli Manning? Insane. Stafford
has 10 more TD passes than Manning and two fewer interceptions—to
say nothing of the six games in which he has two or more TD passes
to Manning’s three. Whether or not it’s the old New
York bias thing is debatable. This much is certain: Stafford has
catapulted himself into the discussion of a top-4 QB entering
next season’s fantasy draft. And Calvin Johnson has solidified
his position as arguably fantasy football’s top WR in 2012.
Great things are indeed on the horizon for the Detroit’s
passing game both from a fantasy and reality perspective.

Green Bay has been one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
They may not play their starters in the second half, and there
are whispers that Detroit probably won’t either. But I think
the Lions will play to win this game, especially considering the
fact that they haven’t won in Green Bay since 1991. No time
like the present to rid the franchise of that ugly blemish. Expect
a solid game from Detroit’s passing offense this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Detroit hasn’t rushed for more than
87 yards in four straight games. And even head coach Jim Schwartz
indicated after last week’s game against San Diego that
this team will continue to rely on the arm of Stafford and the
passing game in order to win games. Kevin Smith, however, has
added a nice complementary piece to the offensive attack. While
he’s not fantasy-worthy, Smith is at least a viable enough
option whereby the opposition can’t totally disregard the
run game in lieu of concentrating on stopping Stafford.

The Packers are 31st in the league overall on defense, but those
shortcomings are due in large part to the team’s struggles
against the pass. Green Bay is actually pretty solid against the
run, although Chicago ran roughshod over them on Monday night.
They had better shore up the defensive side of the ball as a whole
if they are to repeat this season.

Passing Game Thoughts: Green Bay has nothing to play for in this
game. The top seed is locked up in the NFC, so don’t expect
to see Aaron Rodgers and the bulk of his playmakers past halftime.
The main objective this week for the Packers is not to add to
the injury list. Greg Jennings is obviously out with his knee
issue, and word came late in the week that Jermichael Finley tweaked
a knee and may not play for precautionary reasons. That being
said, don’t expect much out of the starting unit for Green
Bay this week.

Detroit gave up almost 300 yards in the air the last time these
teams met on Thanksgiving. It will be a totally different game
with different objectives. Detroit will have the greater incentive
to win this game, so expect a spirited effort from the Lions.
Matt Flynn should see significant time once Rodgers finds his
way to the bench. That will make the chances of the Lions beating
the Packers much greater.

Running Game Thoughts: Green Bay has only reached the century
mark on the ground twice in the last seven games. James Starks
returned last, and so too did the RBBC with Ryan Grant. The Packers
would like to incorporate the run more, but don’t get it
twisted. They know that games are won and lost by their dynamic
passing game. Starks and Grant have been fringe fantasy players
all year, and that won’t change here in week 17.

Detroit has had its issues stopping the run this year, but last
week’s solid play against San Diego to the tune of 70 yards
was the defense’s best effort since its week 12 outing against
these same Packers on Thanksgiving. The only way Green Bay does
better than that week 12 game is by resting the bulk of their
starters for the second half. Only then will they probably try
to feature a running game that’s struggled for the most
part this year.

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m personally a big proponent of
QBs that throw for multiple TDs in a game. That is the single
most important factor that separates upper-echelon QBs from the
also-rans. With that being said, Joe Flacco is not your prototypical
QB who’s capable of such feats on a regular basis. Even
though he’s thrown two TDs in each of the last three games,
he hasn’t thrown for more than 227 yards since week 10 and
hasn’t tossed more than two TDs in a game since week 3.
He’s a game manager, not a play-making QB. Most of that
has to do with the offensive scheme. But whatever the case, Flacco
is the quintessential fantasy QB2, so start him as such.

After not giving up more than 202 yards through the air during
the first six weeks of the season and becoming one of the top-3
pass defenses in the league, the Bengals have come back to the
pack a bit after losing several key components in their secondary.
They’re still a top-10 defense, but they have a tendency
to allow average offenses move the ball on them (see last week’s
fourth quarter against Arizona). Cincy’s pass defense won’t
have to worry too much about being exploited by a Ravens offense
that doesn’t incorporate many down-the-field passes. As
a result, the Bengals should put up a tough fight against the
Ravens this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice has had at least 19 touches in
six straight games and has scored a TD in four of those contests.
He’s one of the most dynamic and versatile RBs in fantasy
football. His role is the centerpiece of this offense, and it
is that kind of scheme that also makes Rice the leading receiver
on the team, as he has 17 more receptions than anyone else. Continue
to view Rice as the top-3 fantasy RB he’s been for the last
two years.

There was a stretch during the first half of the season when
Cincy held opponents to under 100 yards rushing in six straight
games. They’ve limited their last two opponents to sub-100
yards and will look to extend that streak to three this week.
This is a hugely important game for both teams, so expect the
Bengals to play solid defense while trying to limit what Rice
does both on the ground and through the air.

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week was the first time in six weeks
that Andy Dalton threw for multiple TDs. Last week also marks
the fourth consecutive week that the rookie failed to reach the
200-yard plateau. Has he hit the proverbial “rookie wall”?
Perhaps. If the Bengals are to make the playoffs in 2011, he’d
better try to recapture the magic that saw him throw seven TDs
between weeks 7-9. A.J. Green disappeared last week, but he remains
the primary receiver in this offense. Andre Caldwell’s season-ending
injury doesn’t help Dalton much, but Jerome Simpson and
the ever-improving Jermaine Gresham should do enough to cover
for Caldwell’s absence.

This week against the Ravens won’t be conducive to formulating
any kind of newfound production by the rookie QB. Baltimore fields
the league’s fourth-best pass defense—one that has
surrendered the fewest TD passes in the league (11). Dalton did
throw for almost 400 yards in the first meeting between these
teams, however. That will certainly add to the focus of a Ravens
defense that would love to win this game to solidify their playoff
position in the AFC.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson only ran for 41 yards the
first time these two teams met, but he did supplement that meager
yardage production with two short TD runs—his only multiple
TD game since week 12 last season. Benson didn’t do a whole
lot last week in what was the Super Bowl in most fantasy leagues.
His 57 yards against Arizona marked the fourth consecutive game
of under 100 yards on the ground.

Baltimore has the second-best rush defense in the league, so
whatever production Benson carves out will be well earned. The
Ravens, however, can be had. Peyton Hillis rumbled for 112 yards
last week, and Ryan Mathews of San Diego rushed for 90 yards and
two scores the week before. Benson should see 20-plus carries
and could squeeze a productive day out of it.

Passing Game Thoughts: Will he or won’t he? That’s
the question once again emanating from Pittsburgh as to whether
or not Ben Roethlisberger will suit up and play. He’s battled
a severely sprained ankle to play one of the last two weeks, but
he’s a shell of himself with that injury. As of Thursday
night, it’s still a 50-50 proposition if he will play. Charlie
Batch is a viable spot-starter in the NFL who can still maintain
some level of productivity in the passing game. With Batch as
the QB last week, Mike Wallace actually had the most receiving
yards than he’s had since week 7, so all is not completely
lost with the old veteran at QB.

Whether is Batch or a hobbled Roethlisberger, they will be facing
one of the most underrated pass defenses in the league this season.
The Browns have quietly become the second-best pass defense while
giving up only 16 passing TDs—fourth best in the NFL. Ben
did torch them for 280 yards and a score, and he did most of that
on one foot, as he injured his ankle during the first half of
that game. I would expect Ben to play, since he practiced fully
on Thursday.

Running Game Thoughts: Last week’s 116 yard effort by Rashard
Mendenhall was his first time eclipsing the 100 yard barrier since
his 146 yard performance against Jacksonville in week 6. For a
team and franchise that prides itself on running the football,
however, it’s ironic that Mendenhall has only one game this
season with more than 20 carries. At best, Mendenhall will be
playing alongside a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger, meaning they could
feature the run a bit more this week. Mendenhall is a no-brainer,
low-end RB1 each week.

Cleveland gave up 162 yards on the ground last week to Baltimore,
as its 30th-ranked run defense continues to struggle. The Steelers
ran for 147 yards in the first meeting, so you should expect similar
production this week. They are certain to see a heavy dose of
Mendenhall and the running game this week.

Passing Game Thoughts: Seneca Wallace is known more for his mobility
than his ability to pass the football, but last week he still
only ran the ball once for five yards. Wallace is not a total
bum at QB; he’s good for short stretches of time as a fill-in
for an injured player. Part of his issue as a signal caller in
Cleveland is the same issue that plagued Colt McCoy: the Browns
don’t have much in the way of viable NFL receivers. Greg
Little, Mohamed Massaquoi and the rest of the clan won’t
keep defenses restless trying to figure out schemes to stop them.
The dink-and-dunk philosophy of the West Coast offense suits these
players well; I just don’t know that approach helps any
of them become explosive, starting-caliber offensive weapons.

And if that’s not enough, the Browns have to contend with
the league’s top-ranked defense that’s fighting for
playoff positioning. The Steelers will be eager to make life miserable
for the Browns. This defense has held the opposition to single
digits in three of the last four games. Don’t be surprised
if they make it four of the last five.

Running Game Thoughts: Peyton Hillis returned to the line-up
in a big way last week, rushing for 112 yards against Baltimore.
He’s run for 211 yards the last two games—just the
kind of production the Browns needed. Only thing is, this is the
last game of the season. Hillis has been one of the bigger busts
in fantasy football this season, thanks in no small part to injury
and an apparent issue in the locker room. Much like the rest of
Cleveland’s offense, they will be hard pressed to garner
production this week.

Only San Francisco has given up fewer rushing TDs than Pittsburgh’s
seven. In fact, Cleveland has only four rushing TDs offensively
this year—31st in the league. This team is completely devoid
of playmakers on offense, and that manifests itself with the lack
of scoring chances this team generates. Only two teams have scored
fewer points than the Browns.

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh McCown laced up the cleats after
coaching high school kids the first three-quarters of the season.
He did pretty well all things considered. His admirable play aside,
Chicago’s offense has taken a big time hit since Jay Cutler
was lost for the season. Earl Bennett’s production has especially
dipped since then. Meanwhile, loudmouth Roy Williams had his best
game last week since week 11 last season while playing for Dallas.
He will be lucky to be on an NFL roster next year. After all,
the best thing he will be remembered for in his career is giving
Calvin Johnson his Megatron nickname.

Minnesota’s secondary has struggled all season. They have
given up the most TD passes this season (33) and made Rex Grossman
look like Tom Brady at times last week. This defense’s only
hope is to unleash DE Jared Allen, who among the league leaders
in sacks. If they allow McCown to do anything of note this week,
then this secondary is worse than we may think.

Running Game Thoughts: Kahlil Bell put in major work last week,
rushing for a career high 121 yards against Green Bay. Bell has
shown flashes the last two weeks, but he’s still far from
replacing Matt Forte’s dual threat potential. Bell should
once again play a major role in the offensive scheme, considering
McCown is still trying to acclimate himself back into the NFL
game.

Minnesota allowed Washington’s Evan Royster to rush for
132 yards last week. They’re 12th against the run but have
had the worst back-to-back games defending the run this year.
The Vikings are sure to see Bell run left and Bell run right;
they’d better be ready for it because he may be all that
Chicago can muster offensively.

Passing Game Thoughts: Christian Ponder has practiced most of
this week and is probable. Ponder has had a lukewarm rookie campaign.
Even though he’s tossed multiple TDs in three of the last
four games, he’s topped 186 yards only once in the last
five. Percy Harvin has had a solid second half of the season.
As both a running a receiving threat, he certainly added a tremendous
spark to many fantasy owners at the best time of the year. His
role will be even more important now that Adrian Peterson is gone
for the year.

Chicago’s defense tried to keep it together early in the
game last week against Green Bay, but they were simply overmatched
by an incredible passing offense. Obviously, Minnesota lacks that
kind of potential, so the weakness of Chicago and its 28th-ranked
pass defense won’t be exploited this week.

Running Game Thoughts: What a downer that Adrian Peterson injured
his knee last week. Toby Gerhart, thankfully, filled in admirably.
He even rumbled for 67 yard run in last week’s game against
Washington. Gerhart has been productive this year whenever he
gets his share of carries. He should receive 15-20 this week,
sprinkled in with a few carries from Harvin as a change-of-pace
runner.

Gerhart will be going up against a disciplined, tough defense.
After starting the season surrendering more than 100 yards on
the ground in the first five games, the Bears have only allowed
three teams to do so in the last 10. Needless to say, they’ve
picked it up considerably, and a one-dimensional team like the
Vikings will certainly find the going tough.

Passing Game Thoughts: If the Niners win, they are assured a
first-round bye in the playoffs, so there is no chance of a giveaway
game here. Alex Smith continues to play efficiently and has made
their passing game at least a threat to opposing defenses. Braylon
Edwards was released this week since he has been injured and they
are getting enough from new starter Kyle Williams to make Edwards
expendable. Williams struggled statistically last week with just
one catch for four yards, but he has speed enough to stretch the
field for the other receivers. The real threats for the Niners
are Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. The Rams know they must
improve at stopping the run, and the 49ers will attach them on
the ground. St. Louis will stack the box, which will leave Crabtree
in single coverage. That matchup favors Crabtree, who has proven
to be a reliable producer this year. The Rams, however, defend
the tight end well, with linebacker James Lauriniatis and safety
Quentin Mikell roaming the middle. This could slow Davis down,
but they like to work him outside the hashes on medium outs and
posts as well. He can have more success there than most tight
ends.

Running Game Thoughts: When these teams faced a few weeks ago,
I projected Gore having a huge game, but that didn’t pan
out. He was held to 75 yards on 21 carries. That game was a bit
of an offensive practice for them in that the team rushed for
144 yards with a lot of others—on wide receiver sweeps and
such—getting the ball instead. Gore has failed to hit the
century mark in seven consecutive contests after having a midseason
run of five straight 100-yard games. In those last seven, he has
just one carry of more than 20 yards. Signs point to Gore’s
wearing down. I think the Rams have improved their run defense,
but the 49ers will not be scored upon, so the game will be in
hand by the second half. All of that diminishes the prospect of
Gore breaking his current string, as the Niners will use Antonio
Dixon and Kendall Hunter to conserve their veteran back once the
game is out of reach.

Passing Game Thoughts: Kellen Clemens has been predictably bad
since replacing Bradford and Feely. None of them have had much
success, however, because the offensive line has struggled. San
Francisco sacked Feely four times in their last game. Rookie defensive
end Aldon Smith is only getting better and is one sack away from
having the rookie sack record all to himself. The Rams don’t
take shots downfield, which only makes the short passing game
tougher. Danario Alexander and Brandon Lloyd could be a nice combination
if the line would give their quarterback time to throw, but the
San Francisco pass rush will be too much for them to handle. The
Rams managed just 91 yards passing against the similar Steelers
defense last week.

Running Game Thoughts: The 49ers allowed both their first 100-yard
rusher and first rushing touchdown all year to Marshawn Lynch
last week. With Steven Jackson rushing for 109 yards on the Steelers’
solid run defense last week, it’s possible that lightning
could strike twice; you just won’t see me placing a bet
on it. Jackson was held to 19 yards when these teams met four
weeks ago.

Passing Game Thoughts: A Denver win or Oakland loss assures the
Broncos a playoff game. Don’t expect the Broncos to be passing
a lot in this one. The Chiefs have two solid cover corners, as
Aaron Rodgers found out, and Tebow is coming off a disaster in
Buffalo that included two picks for touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Tebow isn’t ready to be a pocket passer just yet, despite
signs of improvement. The Broncos control their own destiny and
will play it close to the vest early on, as turnovers will be
critical to victory in what should be a low-scoring game. Tamba
Hali is a good pass rusher that will likely move around so he’s
not matched up on Denver’s only talented pass blocker, Ryan
Clady. Denver could use a little more diversity in their pass
attack. The running backs caught zero passes last week…
Seems like a good weapon not being used by a limited throwing
quarterback. I also think Denver underutilizes their tight ends.
They did make strides there last week with Rosario catching two
for 46 and Fells grabbing two for 22. For Tebow to be a viable
passer, given his limited accuracy, the Broncos need their great
pass-catching tight ends and running backs to become bigger weapons.
The Chiefs are especially vulnerable in the middle of the defense
at safety, so look for the Broncos’ tight ends to remain
an active part of the attack. Tebow was two of eight for 69 yards
in their first meeting.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver will rely heavily on the run game
with a conservative attack. Kansas City held Tebow to a below-average
35 yards last meeting, and Derrick Johnson will probably spy Tebow
to keep those rushing yards down. When Tebow isn’t keeping
the ball, Willis McGahee will see the lion’s share of the
rushing duties, with occasional spells from Lance Ball. McGahee
will look to cap off a good season in which he has already eclipsed
the 1000-yard mark on just 222 carries by averaging a terrific
4.8 yards per carry. The Chiefs are just 23rd in rushing yards
allowed, giving up an average of 135 per game. McGahee should
close the regular season well.

Passing Game Thoughts: The Denver defense has come back to reality
during their two-game losing streak, which followed a six-game
win streak. Now they face their recently released teammate, Kyle
Orton. Orton provides a stable threat behind center for the Chiefs
in terms of attacking the whole field. What will be critical for
a Kansas City win is turnovers and red-zone production. They have
struggled to score when close to the end zone because of the lack
of a dominant tight end or slot threat. Denver may be at a big
disadvantage this week without defensive leader Brian Dawkins,
who is expected to sit out with a neck injury. Dawkins is a critical
part of run support and getting the secondary in position. The
Chiefs will use Jonathan Baldwin to attack the middle where Dawkins
typically roams. Denver’s best counter is the pass rush
of Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller. With a weakened secondary, those
two need to have a big game. They have to make Orton uncomfortable,
forcing him to make sloppy decisions with the ball. With time
in the pocket, Orton will pick apart most defenses.

Running Game Thoughts: Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones have been
splitting carries evenly, getting around 10-15 apiece. This week
Battle is doubtful to play, however, which makes Jones a viable
flex or RB2. Jones is in the twilight of his career, so he may
not get true workhorse numbers, but 20 carries is reasonable to
assume. Other than a few games during their win streak, the Broncos
defense has been poor at stopping the run. They rank 25th, allowing
135 yards rushing per game. The loss of Dawkins won’t help
matters. Also, with Orton under center stretching the field, Denver
has to play the Chiefs straight up. They can’t load the
box to stop the run, so Kansas City should have modest success
running the ball. However, the lack of game-breaking skills from
Jones limits hope for any great fantasy value.

Passing Game Thoughts: San Diego’s strategy will be to
get one-on-one matchups on the outside without safety help. They
can set that up by running the ball successfully and hitting play
action. The Chargers will also want to attack the Oakland safeties,
who can struggle in coverage. Antonio Gates and slot receivers
Patrick Crayton and Vincent Brown should have success attacking
the seam. As with their entire season, this game will come down
to whether or not Phillip Rivers avoids costly turnovers. Oakland’s
corners play aggressive man and will jump routes if Rivers is
sloppy. Rivers will have to deal with a makeshift offensive line
that will struggle blocking Oakland’s physical front. He
could be under duress, as Oakland has everything to play for and
the Chargers have no playoff hopes. Keep an eye out for the status
of Vincent Jackson. He has a strain and has yet to practice. With
nothing left to play for, he may sit out with an injury he might
have normally played through.

Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Mathews has lived up to his draft
status this year with over 1,000 yards rushing and just shy of
five yards per carry average. The Chargers will want to establish
him early, set the tone of the game, and keep pressure off Rivers.
Oakland gives up over five yards per carry themselves, making
this a terrific matchup for Mathews.

Passing Game Thoughts: For the first time in over a month, speedy
deep threat Jacoby Ford is practicing and possibly ready for a
return. Ford will be a dangerous complement to Darius Heyward-Bey
and Denarius Moore. He will give the Raiders a three-headed monster
and easily the fastest receiving corps in the league. The Chargers
are mediocre on pass defense beyond Quentin Jammer, so the deeper
the receiving corps, the better chance for creating mismatches.
However, the Raiders have really hurt themselves with penalties
that have put them in long yardage and allowed the opposition
to know when they are passing. If they can eliminate getting into
third and long and feature a dual threat of run and pass, Palmer
should be able to make some plays. The Chargers don’t get
much pressure on quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: There were some reports at the beginning
of the week that Darren McFadden could be ready to go this game.
That optimism was scuttled when Hue Jackson told the Contra Times’
Steve Corkran that McFadden is "just not ready yet."
So it appears Michael Bush will remain the workhorse. Bush has
been an effective power back but may be wearing down some. He
hasn’t eclipsed 80 yards rushing in five games. And over
those five games, he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. Bush
is several years removed from being a feature back in college,
and the Raiders throw the ball a lot more since the addition of
Palmer. The Raiders will need a bit more balance on offense, and
Bush will be the key. On a positive note, Bush had his best game
of the year in San Diego when he rushed for 157 yards on 30 carries,
giving the Raiders a 24-17 win.

Passing Game Thoughts: The Seahawks really struggled to get the
ball downfield against the tough 49ers defense last week. Neither
Golden Tate, Ben Obomanu, nor Doug Baldwin had a single reception
longer than 14 yards. Tarvaris Jackson has progressed but needs
to show that he can accurately hit the downfield throws. Seattle
could probably use a little more speed to stretch the field as
well. Doug Baldwin will likely see a lot of rookie corner Patrick
Peterson, who locks up one on one with the opposition’s
top receiver. After a slow start, Peterson has been dynamic the
second half. And with four returns for touchdowns, he is just
one shy of the league record. With Greg Toler and Peterson on
the outside, the middle of the field is where the Cardinals are
most vulnerable, so Seattle needs to find ways to attack them
there. Tight End Zach Miller would be such a weapon, but he has
to be one of the more disappointing free agents this year. He
managed good numbers in an awful Oakland pass attack for years,
and while Jackson is no Warren Moon, he can’t be worse than
what Miller had in Oakland. Miller has dealt with some injury,
but most of his drop seems to fall on his quarterback and the
offensive scheme not utilizing his talent. He blocks a lot in
the heavy run-oriented offense, but Oakland was mainly a rushing
attack as well. This year may be lost, but Seattle needs to figure
out how to feature him more, especially when they are lacking
talent at wide receiver.

Running Game Thoughts: This game will simply be an encore to
cap Marshawn Lynch’s terrific season that culminated with
his being the first running back to score a rushing touchdown
or break 100 yards against the previously impervious 49ers defense.
With the struggles of the Seattle passing game, victory will once
again come down to Lynch barreling through defenders to keep the
chains moving and winning the battle of field position. The Cardinals
are no free ride. Their run defense has improved as the year has
progressed. They held Cedric Benson to 57 yards on 16 carries
last week. Even with a stiff run defense, however, Lynch is as
hot as any back in the league and remains a must-start regardless.

Passing Game Thoughts: There are mixed signals as to whether
or not quarterback Kevin Kolb will be able to play, as he continues
to suffer from post-concussion syndrome. Kolb has had an injury-filled
and disappointing debut as a Cardinal, going 3-6 as the starter.
John Skelton has been up and down as well, but he has shown promise.
The team fell short in a late push to comeback on the Bengals
last week, but Skelton was able to hit Fitzgerald for a nice 39-yard
score. Fitzgerald finished with 106 yards and Andre Roberts had
a respectable 75, so Skelton is at least making the passing attack
relevant. Fitzgerald should have a big game this week. He will
be matched up with Brandon Browner, a big, strong corner. But
Browner won’t be able to push around the equally athletic
Fitz.

Running Game Thoughts: Beanie Wells has struggled mightily since
he ran wild on the Rams for 228 yards. In the four subsequent
games, his yardage totals were 67, 27, 53, and 51. He has made
due playing through a bothersome knee injury, but expectations
for him should remain low as he faces a big Seattle front that
does well against the run.