Mid-week front expected to bring sharp temperature drop

Wednesday

The jury is still out on next week’s storm and its impact on the Florida peninsula, forecasters say.

The two major forecast models that are followed for these types of events — NOAA’s GFS and the European (ECMWF) — can’t agree on timing of the event either, according to National Weather Service forecasters in Miami and Melbourne. It looks like the cold front will come through on Wednesday.

"It is too early to gauge the severe weather risk with the mid-week front until details on the exact track and strength of the system become more clear," forecasters in Miami said in this morning’s analysis.

For now, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center shows between a quarter and a half-inch of rain falling in the Palm Beach area through next Thursday.

Forecasts from the NWS as well as the commercial services are in better agreement about the shot of cool air that’s expected to follow the front. After highs near 80 on Tuesday and Wednesday, next Friday’s forecast high in Palm Beach is only 69, according to both the NWS, AccuWeather, and Weather Underground.

The latter two services are predicting very chilly lows in the low-50s Friday and Saturday, while the NWS is calling for lows in the upper-50s Friday morning.

The normal high and low for the final weekend in February are 78 and 61.

The Climate Prediction Center released its latest three- and four-week outlook Friday, calling for below normal temperatures in the southeastern U.S. from Texas up to Virginia and south to Florida. The West, from the Central Plains out to California, Oregon and Washington, are forecast to remain toasty.

The forecast covers March 5-18.

The southern tier of states, from Florida to Texas and out to California, may be wetter than normal.

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ASTEROID UPDATE: And speaking of insufficient forecast data, scientists still aren’t sure how close Asteroid 2013 TX68 will come to the Earth, although NASA says there’s no reason to worry about an impact. The problem is that the space rock, which measures about 100 feet long, is lost in the glare of the sun as it is approaching the planet.

According to EarthSky.org, scientists now say 2013 TX68 will pass no closer than 19,000 miles — the original estimate was a minimum of 11,000 miles. On the other hand, it could be as far away as 10 million miles.

They aren’t even exactly sure of the timing of the close encounter. March 5 has been the generally publicized date, but EarthSky says the likeliest time is March 7 at 7:06 p.m. Eastern Time. There’s a two-day window for error. That puts the flyby anywhere between March 5 and 9.

The asteroid is capable of causing a shock wave twice as intense as the Chelyabinsk meteor in Russia, which injured more than a thousand people in 2013.

Meanwhile, CNN reported Friday that Russia has cooked up a plan to modify missiles to destroy asteroids before they hit Earth.