Note: This paper was prepared for Second Human Empowerment Conference in
Septtember 2004 but was not delivered as I was unable to attend it.

In delivering Arvind Ghosh Memorial Lecture, nothing would be more
appropriate than to talk about Islam and Muslims. Arvind Ghosh devoted a large
part of his life to the study of this subject. He was one of the few who
actively talked about the reality of Islam when the rest of world was completely
unaware of it. How prophetic has his work been?

2. Last year in my Arvind Ghosh Memorial Lecture I had explored "What is
Jihad?" from its core scriptures -- the Koran and the Hadis. Today I will talk
about a current subject -- Indian Census and Muslim population growth.

3. India Census 2001, recently released, is in the news today. What are its
long term implications?

4. I, personally, was not at all surprised; alarmed, yes -- but surprised --
no, by the "revelations" of the Census 2001. The Muslim population growth in
India at one and half times the rate of Hindu population growth rate is no
"revelation" and given the Hindu mindset and priorities neither is the decline
in the rate of growth of Hindu population.. The broad outlines have been there
for centuries for anyone to see, if only one was willing to face the reality.

5. In broad terms, the Muslim population in India has been growing in
geometrical progression vis-à-vis Hindus who have been growing in arithmetical
progression. And with the improvement of educational and economic level of the
Hindus, the disparity has become even more pronounced. To put it in broader
perspective, Muslim population has steadily grown from 13% in 1800 to 16% in
1850 to 20% in 1900 to 25% in 1947 and anywhere between 30 to 33% today taking
into account the geographical area of pre-partitioned India. These statistics
are available from various sources.

The high rate of Muslim population is not unique to India alone. Barring the
isolated case of Indonesia, Muslim population growth outpaces almost every other
group in just about any country in the world..

6. Almost ten years ago, I had analyzed the 1961 and 1991 census. The growth
disparity even in the two were almost identical to one between the 1991 and
2001. Between 1961 and 1991 Muslim population had grown by 133.66% as compared
to Hindu growth of 89.24% -- the Muslim population growth being 150% of the
Hindu population growth.

7. To bring it up to date -- Between 1961 and 2001, in absolute numbers, the
Hindu population has grown from 366 million to 827 million - a growth of 126%
while the Muslim population in the same period grew from 47 million to 138
million -- a growth of 193 per cent. The Muslim population growth was consistent
at about 50 per cent higher than the Hindu population. What is more alarming is
that Hindu population growth rate has declined from 25% in the previous decades
to about 20% in the decade preceding the Census while the Muslim population
growth , if not increased, as the initial data had indicated, it has almost
remained constant, and if declined, only marginally so. It is still a high of
around 30%. The hoopla caused by census 2001 release just goes to show the
hypocrisy of politicians of all hues. The controversy regarding the lack of
census in J&K and Assam in 1991 and 1981 respectively, while it may satisfy the
appetite of the secularists, is insignificant in broader terms.

8.Some of the striking features of Muslim population are

8a. The lowest growth rates of Muslim, while still higher than that of the
Hindus, are in the south. Tamil Nadu recording the lowest with 13.7 per cent
followed by Kerala (15.9), Andhra Pradesh ( 17.9) and Karnataka (23) while the
largest Muslim population growth has come from what are border states of Assam,
Meghalaya, West Bengal, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and J&K.

8b. Even more alarming is the fact that the percentage of population in the
age group of 0-6 years was maximum among Muslims at 18.7 per cent as compared to
15.6% among the Hindus and 15.9% the national average. With further declining
population growth rate among the Hindus, the percentage rate of Muslim children
in the lower age bracket is only likely to go up. This is a significant 20%
above the rate among the Hindus. The Muslim population percentage in the age
group 0 - 6 is 15.8% as compared to 13.4% overall.

This is indication of the shape of population mix in the future. With higher
rate of Muslim population growth it will only increase.

9. Some have put forward the argument that the Muslims being minority feel
threatened and hence they need to increase in numbers, holds no water. Muslim
population growth in India has been actually slightly less than in Pakistan
where no threat to Muslims exist. Between 1961 and 1998, its population (96.28 %
Muslim) grew from 43 million to 132 million - a growth of 207 per cent -- at the
annual growth rate of 3.092%. The annual growth of Muslim population in India
between 1961 and 2001 has been 2.7367%.

10. High Muslim population growth is in fact a part of a greater global plan
to make Islam the dominant religion in the world by sheer demographics. In all
fairness to Muslims, their religious leaders and most rank and file are quite
open about why the Muslims want to increase their population at a faster rate.
As many Muslim leaders have pointed out they are not interested in "quality of
life" -- they are interested in "the quantity of the Muslim population". In the
aftermath of Census release when one Muslim leader called for Muslims to
practice birth control, other Muslim scholars rebuffed him and called for more
children of Islam and some women groups have publicly protested against the
proposed family planning..

11. This strategy has paid off. Muslim population growth, specially in North
Africa, has filled the vacuum of declining birth rates in Europe. Demographers
for several years now have been predicting that at the latest by the end of this
century, Muslims will outnumber non-Muslims in Europe and it will become an
extension of Arabia. Some have even called it Eurabia. Their strategy is simple
-- take over the world by demographics.

12. Political pundits of "secular hue" in India lost no time in linking the
high rate of Muslim population growth to Muslim backwardness -- both economic
and educational; and if not directly so, at least by implication that it is the
fault of India -- read Hindu -- government that the Muslims of India are
backward. Muslim backwardness, though not a subject of this paper is not unique
to India. Muslim backwardness, both economic and educational, as studies have
shown is prevalent in the UK and Europe also. See http://vinodkumar.voiceofdharma.org/articles/backwardness.htm

13. The myth of linking high population growth with lack of education has
been amply demolished by the census itself. Muslim literacy of 59.1% in India is
really not that much lower than those of the Hindus at 65.1% and in some states,
it is even higher than those of Hindus. Even in those states, the Muslim
population growth is still higher than those of the Hindus.

For example in Kerala, the Muslim literacy rate is 90 per cent and still
their growth rate is 16 per cent in comparison to state population growth of 9.4
per cent. Similar is the situation in many states like Maharashtra, Gujarat and
some others.

14. An impression is created in the media that the Muslims in India are
victims of discrimination by the Hindus. No political commentator has bothered
to inform the people that literacy rate of Muslims (59.1%) in India is
considerably higher than those of Muslims in Pakistan at 43.92% (1998 Census).

15. Now the question arises what are long term implications of growing
percentage of Muslim population for the Hindus? Many secularists like to
downplay what it means in the future specially since the highest population
growth rates have come from the border states.

16. The growth of Muslim population cannot be seen in isolation. It has to be
looked upon in conjunction with exploding Muslim population in Pakistan and
Bangladesh. Mass migration of Muslim population to India from Pakistan and
Bangladesh in the future cannot be ruled out.. Already 10 - 30 million --
accurate figures are hard to come by -- Muslims from Bangladesh over the decades
have settled in various parts of India. This will only worsen the situation in
border states which already have a higher percentage and growth rate of Muslim
population.

There is no better guide for the future than the past.

17. What has happened in the past?

18. As a result of Muslim invasions from the west and northwest, areas lying
on way of Muslim invaders and long occupation and mass conversions of the Hindus
to Islam at the point of the sword, the Hindu states of Baluchistan, NW
Frontier, Punjab and Sindh became Muslim majority states. Afghanistan became
completely Islamic. Bengal on the east also became predominantly Islamic -- for
reasons not subject of this paper.

19. The net result was that Islamized areas adopted Alien culture and turned
hostile to national Hindu ethos and culture -- ultimately ending up as separate
Islamic states of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The fear expressed by some Hindu
groups on the exploding Muslim population in India are not misplaced. Similar
future for areas that become high Muslim dominated areas cannot be ruled out.

20. There is already a secessionist insurgency going on the in only Muslim
majority state of Jammu and Kashmir where almost all the non-Muslims have been
expelled. To claim Pakistan is fomenting trouble is to state only half the
truth. The insurgency has much support from the local Muslim population.

21. What can India do?

22. The results of Islamization are evident from looking at what Afghanistan,
Pakistan and Bangladesh are today. If India and the Hindus do not want to go the
same route, the immediate things India should do prevent exploding Muslim
population are:

22a. Without any further delay implement Uniform Civil Code for all religions
across India

22b. Implement and enforce strict birth control measures.

22c. Strict border control to stop any illegal immigration of Muslims from
Bangladesh and eventually from Pakistan.

22d. Abolish article 370 and make the State of J&K open to all Indians.

These are the preliminary steps that should be taken immediately.

23. And above all, propagation of hate against other religions in the name of
religion should be made a crime.

24. Any "romantic" and "sentimental" ideas regarding reunification of India,
Pakistan and Bangladesh should be summarily dismissed. Such action would result
in Islamization of India within the next few decades.

25. If India wants to preserve its culture, ethos and integrity, these are
the minimum first steps that should be taken immediately.

26. Publication of Census 2001 is a timely reminder of the Muslim population
explosion. Hindus can afford to ignore it only at the peril of survival of their
own civilization.