Cause and Effect (Warriors 116, Nuggets 123)

For all the talk about how successful the Warriors’ starters have been, Mark Jackson sure wasn’t anxious to play them together in the final 18 minutes of the Warriors’ ugly 116-123 loss to the Denver Nuggets. The Curry/Thompson/Iguodala/Lee/Bogut combo played a total of 1:28 together during the final quarter and a half (they were +4 for that brief stretch). And for all of Jackson’s talk about being a defensive-minded basketball team, Jackson chose offense over defense with the game on the line, playing his two best defenders (Bogut and Green) for a combined total of 33 seconds in the game’s final 6 minutes. So while it may be frustrating that the Warriors gave up easy baskets on blown pick-and-roll defense and were out-rebounded on crucial second-chance opportunities, it’s far from surprising.

The hockey substitutions may be gone — Jackson played Thompson or Iguodala with the bench crew at all times on Wednesday — but another one of Jackson’s bad coaching habits has returned. When backed into a corner, Jackson’s instincts still default to offense above defense. Despite the Warriors allowing the Nuggets to shoot over 50% from the field (54.2% in the end) and losing the rebounding battle (ultimately 41 to 46), Jackson continued to go small in hopes of winning the game by exploiting mismatches on offense. Bogut had managed 10 rebounds in only 24 minutes and protected the paint, but he sat down the stretch so Barnes could potentially get post-up isolation opportunities against a smaller Nuggets player.

Too clever by half, Jackson’s line-up only exacerbated the Warriors’ problems. Nate Robinson was hot early in the fourth quarter, but it was ultimately two instances of blown pick-and-roll defense by David Lee and Klay Thompson and missed rebound opportunities by the entire team that sealed the Warriors’ fate. The Nuggets shot 50% for the quarter (up from 42% in the third) and out-rebounded the Warriors 14-8 (after being out-rebounded 11-14 in the third). Mix in a costly turnover down the stretch by Curry, who had played nearly the entire second half without a break, and you’ve nearly filled up your “frustrating Warriors loss” bingo card.

Some highlights and lowlights:

David Lee had a terrific offensive game, getting to the rim and punishing the Nuggets for going small. It was the type of aggressive performance that has been the hallmark of his resurgence in the season’s second quarter. He got burned on the pick-and-roll late in the game, but I put that more on Jackson than Lee at this point. Lee is who he is. Everyone in the NBA knows that he’s a poor pick-and-roll defender. The leading reason the Warriors acquired Bogut was to play defense next to Lee, to cover for his mistakes. But if Bogut sits during crucial stretches of the game, leaving Lee all alone to defend opposing big men, the Warriors can’t be surprised or upset when Lee gets burned. If you want Lee on the court for his offense, you need to take steps to protect him on defense. Jackson failed on that count, and it was one of the main reasons the Warriors lost the game.

Fatigue may be beginning to catch up with Stephen Curry. After going 3-6 in the first half, he shot 4-13 in the second (2-8 in the fourth quarter). Curry’s difficulties are compounded when he has to create his own shot rather than working off picks. With the best pick-setter on the team (Bogut) sitting for most of the fourth, Curry resorted to forcing up extra-long threes early in the shot-clock before the defense could collapse on him. They were desperation looks because Curry had little faith he’d see more open space later in the possession. Again, while Curry must shoulder some of the blame, I put most of the responsibility on Jackson for not even attempting an offense that would help free up his best scorer. Curry also only had one assist during the fourth quarter — a good indicator of how stagnant the Warriors’ offense had become in its fixation to win perceived mismatches.

The bench — Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green, in particular — showed signs of life. The improvement may have more to do with who the bench players were running with than any change in their individual games. Barnes and Green scored more off the bench because they spent more time playing with Curry and other starters. When Jackson fielded a line-up with 2 or fewer starters against the Nuggets, the Warriors were still outscored by 9 points. The true test for the bench will come when Jordan Crawford arrives on Friday. If the bench players can continue to contribute points on a Crawford-led team, the Warriors may be getting somewhere.

The fact that the Warriors had won 11 of 12 games is not a defense to a loss like this one. If anything, it makes the loss worse because we know the team is capable of so much more. The inspired individual play from Curry, Lee and Bogut during the win streak helped smooth over the rough patches in Jackson’s coaching decisions. But against tougher Western opponents, the Warriors won’t have as much margin for error. If the Warriors are going to be a defensive-minded team, they need to play their defenders. And if they really have the best starting line-up in basketball, they should force opponents to adapt to it rather than abandoning it to adapt to opponents. I have no problem with Jackson calling out his players after losses like this one — there will always be room for improvement. But he should apply the same standard when evaluating his coaching performance.

Adam Lauridsen

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I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas playing the Eastern Conference teams anymore, Toto.

Campath

Well said, couldn’t agree more on the coach’s rotation especially at the end of the game. It’s hard to watch, don’t understand MJ at all.

Tired

OK, I am going to post this from the last thread because i just missed the new thread warning and i was up late watching the replay:

Lots of great comments tonight about the coaching decisions and some f the players’ decisions. I will only add that I am getting very tired of watching Curry dribbling in front of the person who is guarding him like he isn’t even there. Behind his back, between his legs, etc.
Twice, and one of those was the last one, he just managed to dribble on his own foot and lose the ball. This is pathetic. i was hoping it was because he was tired in all the other games he has done this, but I guess he has just decided that he is all that good enough that he can play like that.
He is being hounded a lot by all the other teams. What should he expect? But they are getting wise to his antics, and what should he expect?
Yes, he is mister cool, but he is getting a comeuppance right about now.

earl monroe

Hubie Browns voice just grates on me, and he explains every single thing and uses the word “then” so much I just had to watch the game without sound

JanG

Well, it took almost a half a season but I’m starting to agree with most here on their criticism of Jax’s rotations. I really want to see more of Bogut in Q4. There’s absolutely no reason why JJHickson should get as many rebounds, and crucial late game ones, that he did. And as always, there are those few plays that determine the game – missed open 3’s from Klay and Curry, half court shot at end of Q2, HB fouling on a breakaway for no reason, playing PnR poorly at end, Curry dribbling turnover, DLee getting stuffed countless times in the paint, Ty off-balance prayer, etc.

When the W’s were tied in Q4, they should have been working to get better % shots than pull up for 3’s. Good to see HB scoring and being more aggressive going to the basket.

Interesting beginning to the game. The W’s were looking sharp, passing the ball around, DLee and Bogut working wonders, yet they were down at the end of the Q1 primarily because the Nuggets guards were having a field day. The terrific passing never materialized again and we were forced to witness the mismatch iso post ups by KT, HB, and DL. Not only does it slow the game down, but it goes away from the strength of this team, ball movement.

Wonder what TD would have done if he was available to cover NR? Hmmm?

JanG

And let’s not forget that the Nuggets were without Gallo, McGee, DArthur, and Miller. They had no inside scoring presence other than an occasional hook by Mosgov. Just like playing against the Spurs second unit, this was a game that shoudn’t have been close!

Commish

Obviously the players have to score and defend. They sucked on both ends but especially on defense. We have averaged 98 points against us so were well above our average let alone we were at home. Given those facts, I remain discouraged by Coach Jackson’s lack of coaching. His mummy-like, lifeless demeanor is so difficult for me to watch in situations where energy and hyper involvement seems the norm. There has to be strategies an elite coach can implement in the myriad of situations that require COACHING. Re JanG this player substitutions and finding the best roles for bench players will get more difficult with the two new Bostonians. The good news is we have plenty of time, especially when O’Neil and Fetus return. The questionable news is whether Coach Jackson has ‘the right stuff”.

rio kid

They had miller. DNP Coaches decision. I agree with you that this is a winnable game. We have a 6ft 7 two and a 6 8 small forward. We should have been able to score at will and you have to be able to defend better. though Nate was pretty unstoppable.

JanG

OK. Thought he was hurt. BTW, Dre is not 6’8″. Do you mean HB?

rio kid

yes, but Dre is 6 five on a bad day

Mr Mully

I would understand the small ball tendencies if we were way behind but it was a tightly contested game throughout. We should have been playing our best five in crunch time and since when did that not include Bogut? Strange coaching decisions, some Nellie nostalgia in this one.

victor soma

“Revenge of the Little People”
argg

Mr Mully

But then again, to put things in perspective this is our second loss in 13 games and this is a league where Washington just blew out Miami. Can’t win em all.

Son of Ahmed

Nope. Sometimes brain cramps just happen.

Son of Ahmed

Last night I said Jackson coaches scared. What I mean by this is matching up small for small is a frightened and irrational reaction. We’ve also seen him pull out Bogut at the first sign of Hack-a-Bogut.

Yet, the only thing for this team to fear is fear itself. The starting line-up, which should be there in the 4th when it matters most, has a statistical advantage (sorry Tired) over almost any other teams. Of course, we know with our own eyes that that unit gives the Warriors their best shot at winning the game.

I don’t understand the tendency to go small for small when clearly the advantage would be to punish the other team by sealing off the interior (half the points one can get) and controlling possessions by dominating the boards. Instead of being affraid of the mismatches that the little guys on the other team present, PUNISH THEM FOR PLAYING LILIPUTIAN BALL.

Warriors fans who had to endure many years of futile small ball know this well. We saw teams punish our team over and over because they controlled the paint. This Warriors team finally has the personnel to reverse that trend, and the coach forfeits that advantage because of irrational fear. Frustrating.

El Topo

Dedmon last night, playing for Philly:
14 minutes, 7 boards and 2 blocks.
Could we have used him vs. Nuggets? Yes.
Would MJax have played him? No.

El Topo

Excellent post, SoA.
We Warriors fans have endured years of small ball (even our bigs were ‘small’ then) and saw our team get punished inside over and over.
Now we have size…let’s use it!

nelliebiggestfan

the problem with all of this is the lack of fairness from commenters like bry and Chris L. If not playing bogut was the cause of last night’s loss then how do you explain all the wins the w’s have had with him on the bench in the 4th quarter. If the strategy is to blame for the loss then that same strategy has to be credited for all the wins it has produced. Bry and Chris L don’t concede this simple truth, they want to have it both ways and ignore the small ball strategy when it works and blame it when it doesn’t MJ played bogut in the 4th against the nets and the w’s lost. MJ played bogut in the 4th against the Celtics smallball unit and the w coughed up the lead and then finally won the game with bogut on the bench. In an overtime game in last years playoffs pop played diaw at center against bogut and the spurs won. Bogut has been given plenty of chances to play against smaller lineups and the results haven’t been pretty. The idea that his defense would have somehow won the game last night if he was in there isn’t based on any real evidence. The real reason for last nights loss is that curry has somehow changed from a hyper efficient scoring machine into a volume shooting low % chucker. If he doesn’t snap out of this slump the w’s aren’t going anywhere. Shouldn’t that be the main topic for discussion after this loss ?

JanG

Good post. However, when JON and/or FE return, I don’t expect him to go small again. Where’s NBF when you need him?
And El Topo is right – so sad that Kuze is taking up a roster spot when Deadmon could have been on the bench. Place that squarely in Myer’s failure column!

JanG

And why not?

El Topo

Quite right. W’s scored 116, more than enough to win most games, even though their offense was misfiring or sputtering most of the time.

The problem was no defense against the small Nuggets, Lawson, Foye, and Robinson. We know Nate can go on these incredible hot streaks where he can’t miss and can get to any place he wants. A very dynamic offensive player.

We lost to a combination of a hot-shooting team and our own poor shooting. Our TO numbers were reasonable and we only lost the board battle by a small number.

Bogut only 24 minutes of PT? WTF?

Mr Mully

Because it wouldn’t be fair to the other kids. Sharing is caring.

El Topo

Must say this about Steph: when he’s shooting well, W’s can live with his TOs. But right now he’s shooting poorly and turning it over too.
Let’s hope he turns it around. Perhaps all due to too many minutes? (Except he had 4 days off before this game, surely enough to recharge batteries)

Anyway, let’s not throw Steph or Lee under the bus for this loss. Coaching was abysmal, our opponents were hot and we were not.

steve

the tone of this game was set early on. the warriors were amazing early in the first half of the first quarter. the ball was flying around and warriors were playing like the greatest team of all time. somehow, at the end of the quarter, the scoreboard didn’t reflect their dominance. suddenly, an combination of events turned their wave of momentum — an unneeded extra pass leading to a turnover instead of a dunk, a missed bunny there, a breakdown defensively, a lost 50-50 ball. bogut had 8 points in the first six minutes. that was reflective of how the warriors were playing. instead of blowing denver out of the water, they left them continue to swim — and it came back to haunt them.

i also agree with the posters who mentioned the absence of bogut during important stretches late in the game. completely mind boggling and frustrating. at least make switches on offensive and defensive possessions at breaks in the action.

finally, i love curry, but, i also agree with the posts about curry turning it into a sideshow late in the game. let’s not blame it on being tired — he just had 5 days off. if he was scorching hot, that would be one thing, but, he wasn’t. move the damn ball steph instead of reducing your teammates to props.

earl monroe

Looking forward to the game on Friday and seeing how the new additions do, go Crawford, go Brooks.

JanG

Read all the posts today. We all seem to be on the same page. But really now, doesn’t this all come down to one thing….Bogut’s inability to make free throws?

FeatherRiverDan

We’re a defensive team that shoots three’s by the ton and when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter as most are we take out our best rim protector and shot blocker for more 3 point attempts….
Didn’t take long for that rookie coach that we could of had show him up….
Do us all a favor and send Jackson packing…..

JanG

steve, yes! “the ball was flying around and warriors were playing like the greatest team of all time”. I was so excited in the first 8 minutes. Great ball movement! But then I looked at the scoreboard and the W’s were only up by a few. How come?

nelliebiggestfan

interesting to see the comments about bogut’s rip job on TD on his way out the door. Several commenters loved his “brutal honesty” and Chris L gushed about how this is more proof of how “competitive” bogut is. IMO this is just more proof of how bogut overates himself. Criticizing players to the press is the coach’s job. The exception to that rule is that if you have built up your cred to superstar/team leader status like LBJ or Jordan then you can say what you want about anybody. Bogut isn’t anywhere near that status, he just thinks he’s got that kind of cred. Taking a swipe at TD on his way out the door serves no purpose other than to massage bogut’s own gigantic ego. This kind of behavior explains why nobody in Milwaukee complained when bogut was traded to the w’s

monsta

Wow, I love this blog. Adam is so spot-on, in such a clear, thoughtful and respectful way.

The Warriors’ default is to out-offense the other team, play reach defense and shoot long jumpers. They need a coach who pushes this team toward defense — and that means minutes allotment.

I like Jordan Crawford a lot, but with this coach my one worry is that the second team will now focus on trying to out-offense the other team, too.

steve

i was so frustrated after the loss that i erased both broadcasts (comcast and espn) after the game. couldn’t even watch the postgame. otherwise, i’d go back and watch that first 8 minutes and try to analyze how we could be so seemingly dominant and yet, be behind by three at the end of the quarter.

steve

wow, what happened? what did he say? i didn’t see anything in the paper.

Son of Ahmed

With you all the way, El T. Was very sorry to see the Dubs make the financial decision of keeping Kuz and letting go of Dedmon.

Kuz = no future
Dedmon = nice future reserve big

monsta

Even when you have days off before a game, I think you get pretty tired when you play most of the first half, then play 22 straight minutes without a break in the second half — the entire third quarter and the first 10 minutes of the fourth quarter.

That’s too much.

JanG

No need. The nuggets were hitting their outside shots at an alarming rate and Curry/Klay, even Dre couldn’t stop it. Seen this before.

monsta

When Robinson heated up, the obvious solution is to put Draymond on him, and have Bogut in the paint waiting for him.

knick

Haven’t read that “rip job” yet. Can you link it?

Bryan Hsiao

Idiotic post as usual.
“Criticizing players to the press is the coach’s job”

Who the f says that so?
only shiety coaches throw his players under the bus when he put no responsiblity on the loss on himself.

Nobody complained when Nellie got fired.
What does that say about him??

ridiculously stupid post

monsta

Fascinating comments on the radio after the game by Randy Foye. Said the Warrior guards were just giving them wide open lanes, and that started giving everybody confidence to drive and either dish off or score. I don’t really need to bash Jackson, but Foye made it sound like that was a coaching decision.

And that Denver’s plan was to get the Warriors to feed the ball to Lee, he’s going to get his points but that keeps the ball out of the hands of Thompson and Curry. Interesting.

Mr Mully

Steph had two TOs last night. I think that’s a number most people can live with.

Bryan Hsiao

That’s what I though too.
They suckered MJack to go small because they don’t have the bigs after Mozgov fouled out.
They love Lee at C because there was zero help on the drives.
No matter how much DLee scored on one end (they also kept fouling him to shoot FTs ) they are confident they can just run straight drives to the basket or go into the paint either kicking out or laying it up.

Rebounding was relatively easy against Dlee at C.

MJack is not a flow coach because the flow indicated that layup line was wide open with Lee at C but no change. Bomb more 3s with no chance of Oreb –> how we lost.

Eric Eiserloh

Already commented on last night’s game last night, and have nothing to add to the comments here except that the W’s got outquicked all night after Denver responded to our opening gambit.

We almost pulled it out by taking advantage of their smalls, but Denver responded to every challenge by pushing the pace and outrunning us and playing with greater inspiration.

The D just wasn’t there for the bulk of the game, and Shaw’s adjustments and game management (excellent use of timeouts and his roster- going with the players who were having the most success against us) outstipped Jackson’s every time, and forced the W’s to play Denver’s game.

Terrible to see Bogut on the bench for most of the second half after he scored 10 easy points in the first.
Terrrible to see Curry get no rest in the second half, and wear down as he often does at the end of the 4th in close games.

The one big plus was to see Barnes have his best all around offensive game in a long, long time.

But now, on to OKC, and a game I would normally pencil in as a loss.

The difference, at the moment, is that OKC has really been struggling to win without Westbrook (Unlike the Clips without Paul… how ’bout that?), and the W’s usually respond well after a loss.

Any thoughts?

My guess is that OKC forces Bogut out of the game the same way (by removing Perkins and playing small), and then claims the boards with Collison or Adams, and Ibaka (who always seems to outplay Lee), or simply Ibaka (as Hickson), Durant, and an array of bigger smalls.

The other key will be whether a lesser OKC player, like Lamb or Jackson can get off against us

That said, I think that we matchup well with OKC, and we should have plenty of motivation to pull it out if Jackson doesn’t play into their better schemes with a lesser one of our own.

Believewhat

Is it true that Curry got his first rest in 2nd half with 4 minutes left ? Thought heard something like that but not sure.

Believewhat

This loss stings even more because it is at home against a team not that good on road. Anyway, my estimate to go to all star with 10-4 record for 35 wins, now I guess they have to go 10-3 rest of the schedule, then I wouldn’t complain about this loss. BTW, if the substitution pattern remains same as this game, Jordan Crawford taking on Barnes role, the game outcome won’t change. So, for one I see Crawford as good help but not saviour. I thought the weakest link before Crawford’s trade was bench with coaching coming 2nd, now I have to say coaching leapfrogged to #1 weakest link for the team.

Believewhat

Actually thought Lee did better job providing help on pick on roll but as lone big man, he was outmatched. Green or Bogut next to him would have changed complexion of last game.

Believewhat

BTW, there are +ves in the game. Loved the way team kept their composure to come back and get a 1 PT lead against a red hot Nuggets team that went 12-24 from 3PT and Robinson having one of those games where he looked like best small man ever to play NBA. Barnes fouling JJ Hickson was stupid mistake that might have cost the game for dubs with Denver getting the ball off missed FT.

Dubs needed extra possessions but they got TOs and are outrebounded.

Tired

Yes

Believewhat

Jordan Crawford will get the minutes away from Klay Thompson, Green and Barnes. All better defenders. Jackson is offensive minded coach or he will not have both Bogut and Green on bench, no way. Until Jackson values rebounds more, we will have to lose few more games like this.

Believewhat

I don’t have politically right way to curse coach for doing this, I will leave at that.

Tired

yes indeed. Ripping the players is the coach’s job? OMG, how stupid can you be?