Potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates await Charlie Crist

The state of the 2014 Florida governor's race is boiling down to this: What will Charlie do?

With the election still 20 months away, politicos took notice last week as Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam signaled he might be available to challenge fellow Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer declared he would not run.

But most potential challengers remain on hold, waiting to see what former Gov. Charlie Crist will decide. The Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat is the presumed front runner among Democrats who are itching to take on Scott -- but not so eager to take on Crist.

Crist remains coy. In a recent e-mail to the Orlando Sentinel, he described his current position as, "Listening to fellow Floridians and seriously considering."

Among Democrats, only former state senator Nan Rich of Weston has committed to enter the race, though others such as former Miami Mayor Mario Diaz have been privately exploring the prospect. And more may get in if Crist does not, party strategists say.

But until Crist makes up his mind, it's a waiting game for everyone else.

"If Crist doesn't run, at that point you could see 'Katy-bar-the-door'," said Democratic operative Steve Schale, president of Schale Communications of Tallahassee.

Democrats have been looking forward to the 2014 governor's race, assuming that Scott's unpopularity gives the party its best shot in 16 years. But in the past few months, the once-abrasively conservative governor has moderated, advocating $2,500 across-the-board raises for teachers and a three-year expansion of Medicaid that the federal government would pay for.

That caused some Florida conservatives to talk about drafting Putnam, a former congressman from Lakeland, or some other conservative to challenge Scott in a primary. But Scott's moderation also should make Democrats nervous, said Democratic pollster Keith Frederick, owner of FrederickPolls in Arlington, Va.

A recent survey by Washington-based Hamilton Campaigns showed Scott tied with Crist in a hypothetical matchup – and with a favorability rating of 44 percent, the highest since he took office in 2011.

"I think Scott is in ascendancy," Frederick said.

With former Florida chief financial officer Alex Sink, whose husband died earlier this year, sounding very reluctant to seek a rematch of her close 2010 loss to Scott, the Democratic field beyond Crist are all virtual unknowns outside of their hometowns.

"Anybody else [besides Crist] requires an introduction," said Hamilton Campaigns president David Beattie.

And even among Democrats, Crist may have to overcome the image that Republicans have pushed since the moment he quit the GOP in the spring of 2010: that he's an opportunistic flip-flopper interested primarily in his own political future.

"What I'm hearing from the Panhandle down to South Florida is that people want a true Democrat." Rich said, "My record is an open book. I'm not going to be changing those positions."

There also is emerging regional tension between Democrats in South and Central Florida. The last three Democrats to run for governor all came from Tampa Bay, and all lost. Crist lives in St. Petersburg.

Some South Florida leaders privately say that their region's huge number of Democrats – and its rich base of campaign contributors -- might get far more excited by a local candidate. Besides Rich and Diaz, former state Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston and Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler are among the possibilities mentioned.

With Scott saying last month he might spent up to $100 million on his re-election campaign, any little-known Democrat faces a formidable task. Before Scott spent $85 million in 2010 – including $73 million of his own wealth – Crist had held the record for raising and spending money, when he spent $60 million to win in 2006.

But that included huge support from the Republican Party of Florida's fundraising machine. Consultants are not all convinced Crist can do as well with Democrats, at least until they get more comfortable with him.

"There are Democrats out there who can't get their arms around Crist. I get it," Schale said. "They spent 20 years of their activist lives working against him. It's a process."