Japanese Hope To Balance Trade News With U.s. Media Blitz

January 26, 1986|By R.C. Longworth.

The Japanese government is planning a major public relations campaign in the United States in an attempt to blunt the impact of the news, expected soon, that Japan`s trade surplus in 1985 soared to a record $50 billion.

Tokyo hopes that this campaign will help keep U.S. protectionist measures at bay until the recent reduction in the value of the U.S. dollar begins to have an impact on the U.S.-Japanese trade balance, according to Japanese trade sources here.

The sources said their government is preparing for a ``crisis`` expected to be touched off when official trade figures are announced this month showing that Japan ran a 1985 trade surplus with the United States of $50 billion, far worse than the $35 billion, itself a record, reported for 1984.

The sources said that Tokyo is keenly aware that the 1986 U.S. congressional election campaign is heating up, and that America`s trade woes are expected to be a big issue, with many candidates demanding stronger measures to trim the Japanese surplus.

In addition, leaders of the Western nations will gather in May for their annual economic summit, with trade, especially Japan`s role in the world economy, on the agenda. Ironically, it is Japan`s turn to host that summit this year.

Many experts blame protectionist measures by Japan, including onerous inspections and regulations, nationalistic purchasing practices and an inward- looking retail system, for the Japanese surplus. Others, however, have said the over-valuation of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is more to blame.

Japan, the United States and the West Europeans have been cooperating since last autumn to bring the dollar`s value down. The result has been a 10 percent to 20 percent decline, although this seems to have halted, with the dollar on a lower but stable plateau.

In Japan, the dollar buys only 200 yen, against its earlier value of 230 to 240 yen. This tends to make Japanese goods more expensive in the United States and U.S. exports cheaper in Japan, which theoretically should bring the U.S. trade deficit down.

But this always takes at least six months, probably longer, to take effect. So most analysts expect the trade imbalance to get bigger before it shrinks, creating growing political problems for both the Reagan

administration and the Japanese government.

There is considerable dispute over the ``proper`` dollar-yen balance, with some economists saying that the dollar should buy only 180 yen or less. The Japanese government clearly fears pressure for a stronger yen, since it already faces pressure from businesses damaged by the strengthening so far and believes many more would come under heavy competitive fire if it goes much further.

The sources said the details of the public relations campaign are not set yet, but will probably include increased trips to Japan for U.S. journalists, business leaders and government officials. There also will be more emphasis on the press and television and a greater use of seminars to reach targeted audiences, they indicated.