Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) -
One thing in life seems to be certain:
Water always wins.

If there's a tiny crack in your roof, water will find it and ruin your ceiling.

If there's any spot for water to get into your basement, and ruin your boxed-up
collection of 1974 baseball cards, the water will find it and turn your cards
to mush.

And it looks like water will do some damage to the U.S. Open, which begins
Thursday at Merion East in suburban Philadelphia.

More rain, after a lot of rain in the past week, is forecast to turn what
already is a mud pit into a swamp. Jeez, some forecasts are saying Merion may
even get some hail.

Pro golfers love swampy courses because it takes away their fear, especially at
a U.S. Open, where things are normally firm and fast.

If the predicted rain comes, the USGA can put the pins in the greenside bunkers
and the players will still shoot at them.

If the fairways are damp and soggy - and the players know their drives will
land and stop and not skeeter into the gnarly rough - and if Merion's greens -
the course's real defense because the course is short (6,996 yards) - are
receptive and soft because of the rain, look for lots and lots of low scores on
Thursday and Friday.

It looks like it could become exactly what the USGA and Merion didn't want.

So many, including myself, want to see the old bird strut its stuff and prove
that a course doesn't have to be 7,400 yards to be a tough test.

In a perfect world, with perfect weather, Merion could do that. While not
brutish, Merion was going to bring everybody - the long and short hitter -
into the fray. Well, wet weather will bring everybody in, but low scores, not
the even par the USGA likes to see from its winner, looks like the order of the
day.

So, who will be lifting that really big U.S. Open trophy on Sunday (weather
permitting) or Monday?

Like every major, it begins with Tiger Woods, who, unless the Philadelphia area
gets another major or a PGA Tour stop magically opens up, will be likely making
his last appearance in the area.

And, if he's in contention, and even managed to win, it could salvage the whole
tournament weather be damned.

The problem is, in his tune-up for the Open at the Memorial, Tiger played
poorly after a great start to his season. How much will the Memorial affect his
confidence? That's the million dollar question.

And what of Phil Mickelson? He had a great finish at last week's St. Jude
Classic and if he can carry that momentum, he'll have raucous crowds cheering
him on.

Phil already has finished second five times in the U.S. Open, the most all
time, and another one would be a heartbreak. A win this time - Sunday is his
birthday - also would be a boon for Merion and the USGA.

Who else? As mentioned above, with it being wide open, there are at least 15
guys who we can point at, such as:

Graeme McDowell: He's won an Open and thrives on pressure. If not Tiger of
Phil, look to McDowell.

or:

Adam Scott: The weight of the world came off his shoulders at Augusta and if he
wins, he'll be halfway to the Grand Slam. That would be cool.

or:

Rory McIlroy: Remember, two years ago at soggy Congressional when Roars set an
Open record by winning at 16 under? I'm sure he remembers.

or:

Matt Kuchar: He seems to be the chic pick of many because of his consistency. A
major win would push him way up the scale.

or:

Luke Donald: He's been mentioned as a major contender seemingly forever. And
he's a great irons player. That could help at Merion.

or:

Webb Simpson: Do you remember he won last year out in San Francisco? Nobody's
won two straight Opens since Curtis Strange in 1988 and '89. I can't see
Simpson matching that.

In the end, here's hoping the weather cooperates and we get a great final
round. My fingers are crossed.