Consider last Thanksgiving, when the cost of dinner soared 13% in the largest hike since 1990. The price survey, which has been conducted every year since the meal cost $28.74 in 1986, has shown increases since 2008.

But this year, much of the boost comes from the rising price of turkey. A 16-pound gobbler costs $22.23 – or up 4 cents a pound to $1.39 a pound. Poultry producers have spent recent months fretting that the scorching summer drought will thin out the size and numbers of their birds, inflating prices.

Most other items on the farm federation’s list, however, cost the same or less this year. Prices for whipping cream, whole milk, fresh cranberries and pumpkin pie mix have all declined since 2011.

And for those who can’t be bothered making Thanksgiving dinner from scratch, the federation notes that many supermarkets and restaurants offer premade meals for between $50 to $75.