Carat's 10 Trends for 2017

2. TRENDS IN CONTEXT We have been producing trend reports for over 5 years, looking at new technologies that will become more important and relevant to clients. In past reports we’ve covered issues such as: WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY PAYMENTS AD BLOCKING Several of the 2017 trends highlight the resurgence of ideas seen a few years ago – following the pattern of Gartner’s Hype Cycle and finally becoming mainstream and useful. Trends for 20172

6. LIVE VIDEO It’s been possible to stream Live Video within apps since early 2015, and in 2016 has become very popular on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and elsewhere. While Live Video brings authenticity, it doesn’t need to be grainy and shaky. Live Video also doesn’t necessarily have to be “live”, it can be scheduled for later transmission, use multiple cameras and more. Trends for 20176

7. Lots of people and brands are using Live Video. Candace Payne became the first live streamer on Facebook to hit 100m views when she made a film of herself wearing a Chewbacca Mask in May. BuzzFeed is experimenting with lots of different Live Video formats, often very low budget but very engaging, for example putting rubber bands on a watermelon until it explodes. Live Video also works with Out Of Home screens - Lucozade did a ‘Wait Training’ programme where a fitness instructor led a class in a bus shelter. Trends for 20177

8. LIVE VIDEO Live Video can also have high production values, examples of which include: • Cheddar, which now provides live streams from the New York Stock Exchange on its Twitter page • Burberry, which live streamed a catwalk show on Facebook in London in September • Donald Trump’s election team, which made daily live broadcasts on Facebook, seen by millions Anything that can benefit from being live can now be live with very little cost, via free apps and global distribution. Trends for 20178

9. Brands should: − Consider what content they have that people would be interested in seeing – don’t go live for the sake of it − Think about the audience – do they have an audience in place, or can you appeal to someone else’s? − Expect to use paid media to get people to see the content Production barriers and costs will decline, and then it’s about the content, the personalities, the ideas. Longer videos, including build-up and re-caps, are more likely to be seen. Use it to: − Add immediacy and authenticity to existing marketing and content − Provide a different point of view, including behind the scenes IMPLICATIONS Trends for 20179

10. SPORTS RIGHTS 2 Trends for 201710

11. Sports (and other) rights are becoming hotly contested, as global technology and media companies become interested in content that is proven to be popular. The new live video technologies allow sport to be streamed easily online. - Early in its life Periscope users abused the service by broadcasting streams of pay per view TV sports events. Twitter and others are buying sports rights to use the content on their platforms. Universal did a deal with Snapchat and BuzzFeed to let them adapt their Olympics content for broadcast through their platforms – it wasn’t live, but it attracted very large audiences. Digital channels also add a social layer to sports viewing – people can watch, react and chat within the same platform. SPORTS RIGHTS Trends for 201711

12. Twitter has a deal with the NFL to stream a live match every Thursday evening, with related tweets alongside. The games are reaching an audience of over 2m. The BBC achieved its highest ever live streaming audience when it showed the England Vs. Wales Euro 2016 match on the BBC Sport website (the match happened during UK working hours). Apple and Wimbledon developed an official app for the 2016 finals for Apple TVs, iPhones and Tablets. It had no live action, but it allowed viewers to see inside the tournament with photos, videos, scores and more. SPORTS RIGHTS Trends for 201712

13. SPORTS RIGHTS Lower production and distribution costs mean that it is viable to screen more events; plus a global audience might make something economically viable, where a national audience wouldn’t. At the same time, sports like cricket and NFL are trying to be more global with wider appeal. eSports rights are also valuable – Twitch streams live gaming tournaments and Drone Racing! Netflix and Amazon could also be potential bidders for rights. Trends for 201713

14. Brands already associated with major events need to be ready to exploit these partnerships across new channels. Digital channels will have far more commercial opportunities, and fewer regulations – there will be more ways for brands to get involved. It would also be a good time to get involved with sports not currently considered to be globally popular, if appropriate to the brands’ audiences, as other exciting sports could now easily find global audiences e.g. Rugby Sevens, or the rise of UFC which has shown how quickly a sport can become global. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201714

15. WEB TV 3 Trends for 201715

16. It is getting easier to put video from the web and apps onto TV screens, whether through connected TVs, or via cheaper connectors such as Chromecast or Amazon’s Fire TV Stick. Netflix has trained people to put web video onto the biggest screen in the home; now lots of other services are taking advantage. Young people already spend more time watching online video than broadcast TV, and this will accelerate. Web TV will provide a return path so that content can be more easily interacted with, for example making programmes shoppable. Trends for 201716

17. Twitter has produced new apps for Chromecast, Fire TV Stick and games consoles as part of its NFL live streaming programme, to make it easy to transfer video from the app to TVs. Facebook is also allowing users to put video from the site onto TVs easily via Apple TV, Chromecast and other integrations. Gaming platform Toca Boca has produced a video app, making it a global kids TV channel. The connected TV is now the most popular device for accessing BBC’s iPlayer. WEB TV Trends for 201717

18. The Grand Tour, Amazon’s car show with the former presenters of Top Gear, started in November and broke streaming (and piracy) records. Programmes like The Grand Tour, are currently ad-free, but Web TV will bring the opportunity for TV ads to be targeted like web ads. Facebook is already experimenting with putting its ads into the breaks in video content on Apple TV and Roku devices. Web TV will also bring new ad formats, including overlays. WEB TV Trends for 201718

19. Brands can now make what they want, and put it where they want. This makes things more complicated for brand content; there are different rules determining what works on different platforms. For example, TV is generally ‘lean back’ so needs higher production values, whereas smaller screens are ‘lean forward’ therefore generally need shorter pieces. Ads within online video can be more targeted than on broadcast, and if TV also becomes ‘addressable’ it will be easier to target some audiences, but at the same time could miss others altogether. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201719

20. BRANDED CONTENT 4 Trends for 201720

21. BRANDED CONTENT Branded content is not new – soap operas were created as regular shows paid for by FMCG brands, in order to allow them to reach audiences of housewives. However, what is new is that content is taking on a greater importance. There is now a more systematic focus on making more content for specific audiences; using the best partners to make and distribute it, retaining the rights, and even looking at ways of monetising it. Trends for 201721

22. BRANDED CONTENT Coke TV is a multi-market initiative from Coca Cola, where the brand acts like an influential YouTuber – it produces lots of content, posted regularly, including regular shows. Red Bull has a long history of creating content and now has its own RedBullTV app, with multiple shows from multiple producers which can be watched online or via apps on TVs. Trends for 201722

23. Some brands are even creating their own formats, to potentially allow them to make shows that could become a revenue driver. Mondelez, P&G, Unilever, PepsiCo and GE are all following models like this, to some degree. Pepsi has established its own 'Creators League' production department, including a 4,000 square foot physical studio space in New York. Mondelez produced a VR game for the Samsung Gear VR, for sale at $2.99 on the Oculus store. BRANDED CONTENT Trends for 201723

24. The level of involvement in branded content will depend on audience expectations and how easily they would accept content from that brand. It’s now easier to make any content and for it to appear anywhere. Brands should consider if there are any existing formats which could be licenced, or create their own. It could also be a good opportunity to expand relationships with brand ambassadors, or find new ones to move into new content areas. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201724

25. VIRTUAL & AUGMENTED REALITY 5 Trends for 201725

26. 2016 was going to be the year of virtual reality, but the most popular content turned out to be augmented reality. Both VR and AR will continue to be very important in 2017, but in different ways. VIRTUAL & AUGMENTED REALITY Trends for 201726

27. VIRTUAL & AUGMENTED REALITY Oculus Rift, HTV’s Vive, and Sony’s Playstation VR all came out in 2016, and with them came lots of games, ‘experiences’ and 360° videos. Cannes saw its first awards for VR campaigns, including one for the New York Times, which gave out over 1m Google Cardboard viewers to readers. It is also regularly making VR films to go with its regular content, for example a 360° film about Falluja. There was 360° content for the Olympics from official coverage available in apps. Several media owners are now offering 360° video ad formats including YouTube & Facebook. Trends for 201727

28. Pokemon GO put AR into the spotlight and became the fastest app to hit 500m downloads within two months of launch, and is still generating plenty of revenue. AR is becoming popular with luxury and fashion apps, as it allows people to try on new looks, or even make-up. However, for it to be effective the experience has to be seamless; bad visuals will deter buyers! AR is also great for instructions and training. Caterpillar is creating AR apps and devices to show how to maintain its vehicles and more. Microsoft’s new HoloLens offers a combination of augmented and virtual reality. It’s available to developers already, and has content from partners like NASA. VIRTUAL & AUGMENTED REALITY Trends for 201728

29. For both VT & AR to take off there needs to be a combination of the technology matching expectations, and new consumer behaviours. Augmented Reality is likely to be the more popular in the short term, as far more people have the technology and understand how to make it work. It could well start to take views from video channels – for example for ‘how to’s’ and ‘unboxing’ moments. VR could become huge in home entertainment, but needs to find its own language for users to replace the recognised ways of following films and other video. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201729

30. CHATBOTS 6 Trends for 201730

31. CHATBOTS Chatbots are automated identities within messaging apps, set up to answer common queries and more. Together with other conversational interfaces like Siri, Cortana, Allo and Alexa (used in Amazon Echo), chatbots are a way of distributing content in a very targeted way, by answering people who have asked specific questions. Trends for 201731

32. CHATBOTS Over 30,000 chatbots have been developed for Facebook Messenger since they were enabled in April 2016. These range from Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spiced Latte, to Domino’s pizza ordering bot, to one from Absolut that lets people find a free drink in their area. Bots have been on Kik’s messenger platform since 2015, and now more than 2bn messages have been sent on there by branded bots. Google’s new messaging app, Allo, includes a search bot able to interpret questions as search queries and deliver answers. Trends for 201732

33. Chatbots on Facebook Messenger can now take payment via PayPal, potentially making them part of the sales process, especially for existing customers. In China WeChat has been integrating payments for longer, and is now an essential part of doing business in China. CHATBOTS Trends for 201733

34. Chatbots can fulfil many tasks from answering frequently asked questions, to taking orders, to being a fun way to express the brand’s personality. Brands should consider where their content sits. Brands interested in using the new conversational interfaces need to ensure that their data is ‘chatbot ready’ – that is, capable of being interrogated and interpreted by the different interfaces like Facebook Messenger, Siri, Alexa etc. Brands should always test internally and on a small scale before launching publicly. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201734

35. TRENDS 2017 SECTION TWO DIGITAL TO PHYSICAL 35

36. IDENTITY & VERIFICATION 7 Trends for 201736

37. IDENTITY & VERIFICATION We’re coming to a time when advertising is more about communicating to people you do know, rather than people you don’t. We’re also moving from probabilistic identity (you assume that these users on different platforms, online and offline, are the same person), to deterministic identity (you know that they are). Publishers and advertisers are trying to create a single ID for consumers across devices and platforms, online and offline, so that a user’s ID can be ‘recognised’ whenever they interact. Trends for 201737

38. IDENTITY & VERIFICATION Sales and marketing can be much more seamless when the identity of the customer is known, for example: • Subscription retail – Dollar Shave Club was bought by Unilever so that its relationship marketing techniques could be extended to other brands • Amazon Dash buttons – each click is tied to a specific Amazon Prime household • Amazon Go – at Amazon’s proposed new physical store, shoppers check-in when they arrive, then just walk out after they finish, and are billed automatically Trends for 201738

39. Services will try to get their audiences to identify themselves as much as possible. The latest version of the Uber app will let it access the users’ calendars and more, to get a closer idea of where they will be at different times, so they can anticipate when they may need to travel. Payments all involve verification of identity, and innovations in this include things like Mastercard’s ‘Pay by Selfie’ where biometric factors like facial recognition can be used to confirm payment. IDENTITY & VERIFICATION Trends for 201739

40. Marketing will become more about targeting people already known to you, allowing more tailored and personalised messaging. Data use is crucial, as is respecting privacy. All actions carried out by brands need to have a clear consumer benefit. Brands need to have systems that will both manage data securely and also be able to make the data as useful as possible – the newer a company, the more agile and powerful their systems are likely to be. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201740 TRENDS 2017

41. SPEED 8 Trends for 201741

42. Trends for 201742 Now that most digital activity takes place on a mobile device, speed of access has become a crucial issue. Google, Facebook and others are working on the architecture of pages and apps to ensure that they load as quickly as possible. The speed of digital is setting expectations in the real world. We are starting to see the seamless integration of online and offline. For example, the Uber you see on your phone is soon the Uber parked in front of you. SPEED

43. Trends for 201743 Google is making the mobile web faster with its Accelerated Mobile Pages (a new way of coding mobile pages) and is now taking load speed into account in search rankings: the faster the site, the higher it could appear in the results. Google also says that faster ads are much more effective. Facebook’s Instant Articles, uploaded into Facebook by publishers rather than accessible on the publishers’ site, mean that they load more quickly. SPEED

44. Trends for 201744 Speed is also becoming more important in the offline world: • Uber found that people’s expectation of how long they should have to wait for a taxi fell by 30% in one year • Amazon’s Prime Now is bringing down delivery time to one hour in some places • Burberry and others have sold clothes as soon as they are on the catwalk, rather than waiting for them to be in-store Services are also working on offline access, caching information so that it can be accessed without a connection at all. This is a particularly big issue in the developing world. SPEED

45. Trends for 201745 The expectation of speed both online and offline will increase. It should be one of the main criteria that brands use to assess how well they reach their customers’ expectations – both digitally and offline. Content needs to be optimised to ensure that all pages, apps and ads load as quickly as possible, while still having full functionality. IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201745

46. PROXIMITY 9 Trends for 201746

47. Trends for 201747 Proximity is becoming very important in marketing – not just location, but the proximity to other objects that may be moving. Bluetooth Beacons were a great hope of location-based marketing, but may be superseded by other technologies’ use of wifi instead of Bluetooth – when people try to log in to wifi they can be targeted. Out of home marketing is also changing rapidly. For example, a campaign for Santander was able to show a location-based ad to passengers before their trains were leaving the station. PROXIMITY Waiting for Santander pic

48. Trends for 201748 Snapchat has started to use location in more of its campaigns; for example Krispy Kreme used a lens that was only available in its stores for its ‘Talk Like a Pirate Day’ promotion in the US. Partnering with Netflix, Cornetto used proximity to create ‘commitment rings’ for couples – Netflix would only play if both were in the room at the same time, so neither could ‘cheat’ by watching an episode without the other. PROXIMITY

49. PROXIMITY Lots of work is being done to develop the possibilities of location-based tracking: • Google and Facebook are both tracking the effectiveness of ads in driving customers in- store, and Snapchat is also working on similar analytics • Proximity is also being used to generate audiences for future targeting, e.g. people who went to the cinema in the last month, or people who go to festivals Trends for 201749 Finding another pic

50. Proximity is about bridging digital and physical. Location needs to be seen in conjunction with other factors like time and audience – a great location at 8pm on a Friday night might be a terrible location at 11am on a Sunday morning and vice versa. Trends for 201750 IMPLICATIONS Trends for 201750

51. SOFTWARE TO HARDWARE 10 Trends for 201751

52. SOFTWARE TO HARDWARE Companies known for software and being online only, are starting to produce their own hardware products. The reason for this expansion is that they want products specific to their needs, that they can control every aspect of. Part of Apple’s success is that it controls every part of its own technology – screen sizes, memory, security – and now others also want this level of control. Trends for 201752

53. SOFTWARE TO HARDWARE Amazon produced its first hardware, the Kindle eReader, in 2007. They’ve recently increased their focus on the physical, releasing their voice-controlled Echo and Dash buttons within six months of each other. Google has previously relied on others to make its tech, but now has two new branded products: the Pixel phone and its voice controlled Home. It has also bought companies such as Motorola and Nest, that make tech hardware. Snapchat has announced the release of its Spectacles – a wearable video camera that takes clips perfect for sharing. Even Uber is in the process of making its own self-driving cars. Trends for 201753 Trends for 201753

54. These companies’ motivation is to own the Internet of Things ecosystem – being present in homes, and deciding what operating system goes inside devices. It also allows new partnerships; for example, Amazon with large consumer goods companies for their Dash buttons. Trends for 201754 SOFTWARE TO HARDWARE Trends for 201754

55. Trends for 201755 Software follows hardware; just as the iPhone led to Angry Birds and Instagram, new devices will lead to new apps and opportunities. Brands need to ensure that they work with the biggest ecosystems, but also talent-spot the future stars. Finally, hardware shows a software company’s brand essence and is a good reminder of how important a clear vision and focus is. IMPLICATIONS

61. APPENDIX 2 2016 TRENDS REVISITED 2017 Trends61 WALLED GARDENS The big players have got even more powerful in 2016, with google and Facebook taking a larger share of ad spend than before. They are also investing in content to strengthen their ecosystems - for example Twitter paying to stream NFL games. CHALLENGES TO ADS Both ad-free content and ad blocking grew in 2016. Netflix subscribers grew to over 86m, while Amazon grew too and broke its own streaming records with 'The Grand Tour'. All of this content is ad-free. Ad blocking rose, but publishers fought back more effectively, taking a strong line against people who access sites with blockers. THE EVOLUTION OF SEARCH Amazon's Echo was one of the gadgets of the year, and has produced over 100 video ads showing off the voice search. Google introduced in-app search, Apple added paid search to the app store, and Snapchat bought Vurb, a search technology company. MESSAGING & NOTIFICATIONS Both Whatsapp and Messenger hit 1bn active users in 2016, with WeChat coming in thrid globally at 700m users. Facebook enabled chatbots and games within its own Messenger, and more than 30,000 bots have been made to date. Algorithms vs Curation Algorithms, or gaming algorithms was one of the stories of the year, shown by how quickly fake news could spread on Facebook. Curation also continued to grow, partly driven by problems with algorithms - for example Facebook is now testing a curated news section, similar to Snapchat's Discover, which is only for approved content partners.

62. APPENDIX 2 2016 TRENDS REVISITED 2017 Trends62 MAPS & LOCATION Maps were big news. As a location-based game Pokemon GO used maps heavily, bringing virtual creatures to real streets. TripAdvisor got into mapping by buying social mapping service CityMaps, and Google made a VR version of Google Earth for the HTC Vive. RECOGNITION Facebook bought MSQRD, the popular face- swapping app. A Russian app, FindFace, went viral - it claims to be able to recognise people with 70% accuracy. Recognition is also being used in self-driving cars, and there is even a Messenger bot called ‘wrf is that?’ which will tell you what is in photos you send to it. SENTIMENT Facebook didn't introduce a way of targeting ads based on sentiment, but Twitter did. Snickers created a Hungerithm campaign, which used social media monitoring to change the price of the bars in Australia, dependent on national mood. DYNAMIC PRICING Price was an issue this year, but less than we expected. Uber still uses surge pricing (an urban myth says they use it when you have low battery and no alternative but to book), and Lidl experimented with dropping prices in the run up to Christmas in the UK, based on Tweet volumes. ‘TELEPATHY’ We didn't see telepathy as such this year, but there were some interesting examples. For example, The Washington Post app can tell if you're bored and suggest different stories.

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