Commentary and analysis on American politics, culture, and national identity, U.S. foreign policy and international relations, and the state of education
- from a neoconservative perspective! - Keeping an eye on the communist-left so you don't have to!

It’s the predominant paradox of contemporary American politics: If Republicans prevail in this year’s midterm congressional elections, it will be because of their party’s sharp-edged stances on topics like abortion and Benghazi, Obamacare and immigration, gay marriage and the minimum wage — issues that energize the GOP’s core base of support.

But if Republicans lose the race for the White House in 2016, it will be because of their party’s polarizing, out-of-step stances on those very same issues, which alienate much of the broader electorate the GOP needs to win a national contest in a country whose demographics and political realities are shifting under its feet.

Look, 2016's a long way off, but I understand why leftists want to dwell on it now: The Democrats are going to take a savage beating in November, and the progressive brand --- which is literally imploding before our eyes, from public rejection of ObamaCare to bipartisan repudiation of the administration's foreign policy --- may not recover for a generation. Do Republicans have problems? Sure. But this leftist look-ahead is nothing more than political cognitive dissonance. They're being slapped in the face with the harsh reality of Democrat Party failure so it's soothing to think that they'll be saved by demographics in the next presidential election. And pathetically, even their demographic prognostications may not help. Traditional white voters (the bane of the Democrat coalition) have higher rates of turnout, constituting a larger share of the electorate than their proportion in the population, thus endangering the progressives even in presidential election years. (See National Journal, "Older White Voters Will Haunt Democrats All Year.")

Not only that, the Republicans could very well adapt to the demographic challenges they're facing, especially with younger voters (18-24 year-old Millennials despise President Obama) and Hispanics (whose warmth toward the GOP in Texas is seen as model for the national party.)

Of course, Republicans could blow all their natural advantages by nominating a candidate in 2016 who refuses to take the Democrats by the throat and kick them to the curb. Nice guys finish last, especially when the Democrats care about nothing more than raw power (literally no depth is too low for leftists, for which no character assassination can be vicious enough). You have to call their bullshit and destroy them.

The politics of desperation is all the Democrats have now and it's all they're going to have in 2016. Run strong candidates and fight them on the facts, and they will fold like a worn out accordion.