Last night’s meaningless game, along with San Diego’s season-saving victory over the Giants, turned out not to be entirely meaningless after all. The Braves’ embarrassing 11-5 defeat dropped their playoff probability from 96.1 percent to 85.1, and raised the Padres’ from 7.6 to 20.6 percent. With every game, it seems, this Wild Card race is getting more and more interesting. A repeat of last night’s results (an Atlanta loss and a San Diego win) would drop the Braves into a tie with the Padres, only a game behind San Francisco.

For the Phillies’ part, a victory this afternoon would tie the team’s third-highest all-time win total, set in 1993. If they finish the sweep, not only would the Phillies’ 98 wins be the most since 1977, when they won 101, but they’d win the division by eight games, their widest margin of victory in the division since 1976, when they outpaced the second-place Pirates by nine games.

For the first time in their head-to-head stretch run meetings, the Braves will have a distinct advantage in the starting pitching matchup, sending Tommy Hanson, who finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, behind Chris Coghlan and J.A. Happ, to face rookie righthander Vance Worley.

Worley, who turned 23 last week, is a former third-round pick out of Long Beach State whose major league career comprises eight innings and only 129 pitches. This afternoon he will make his fifth major league appearance and second major league start. Worley allowed two runs in five innings and took the loss in the first game of a doubleheader against Florida on September 6. Apart from that, he has thrice pitched scoreless relief innings this season. Today’s tilt will be Worley’s first road appearance in a Phillies uniform.

Your gameday beer: Sam Adams Octoberfest
Not only is it now October, but today, as it happens, is the 32nd anniversary of the Bucky Dent home run. So in honor of a time when we felt bad for Red Sox fans, let’s throw back a seasonal Sam Adams offering. A couple interesting notes about that game: Dent only hit 40 regular-season home runs in his 12-year career, including the three-run jack off Mike Torrez in that one-game playoff. Torrez, for his part, is most famous for 1) giving up Dent’s homer, and 2) beaning Dickie Thon in 1984. However, he was the first of only four starting pitchers in the division play era to be traded and win a World Series game in the same season. The last two men to do it? Joe Blanton in 2008 and Cliff Lee in 2009. –by Michael

Let’s see what Vance Worley brings to the table today. A lot of people in Atlanta do not like Bobby Cox. He has a real attitude with the fans and is considered to be a genuine obnoxious character outside the uniform. Many people from Atlanta cannot wait for him to leave town.

No, I actually do want the Brave to win today, I want to see the Braves, Pads, and Giants all finish with the same record. That would mean the Braves have to win one game in the next two. I choose for the Braves to win today an lose to Hamels tomorrow. Then all the Pads have to do is sweep the Giants.

pheeling, let’s break down the lineup though. First and foremost, the entire infield has spent time on the DL, moreso with the middle of the if than the corners. All power figures are down (aside from Vic) decidedly so. Victorino is having an off year (average), until August, Raul was almost a negative in the lineup. Werth’s year looks good on paper but analyze what has happened and you know that his production (rbi) is way down from where it should be.

All these negatives and look where the Phils are? Sure, the lineup has been mostly intact for September but its the pitching that separates this crew from the rest of the league and its the pitching along with the hitting that will bring us our second WS trophy in 3 years. Too cool.

All i am saying is that somehow if we have to play Timmy on full rest wednesday. Its not good.
I am a worry wart. Once I know thats out. Ill be happy.
I have 0 respect for everyone else.
At least cinn won today

@Andrew: If Braves lose tomorrow and Padres win, the West will be tied and will have to have a 1-game playoff to decide who is the division winner and who is the Wild Card, so that would give the Giants an extra game before the playoffs.

@Andrew: Yes, they play to determine who is the division and who is the Wild Card, because it affects who plays what team. The game is definitely played. Whether they play to win is another matter, but the playoff game is definitely played.

If the Phillies lose and the Padres lose, the Phillies will play the Reds.

If the Phillies win and the Padres win, the Phillies will play the Giants.

Now, here is where it gets complicated.

If the Phillies win and the Padres lose, the Padres and Braves will play a one-game playoff at Turner Field on Monday. If the Padres win that game, the Phillies will play the Padres. If the Braves win, the Phillies will play the Reds.

If the Phillies lose and the Padres win, the Phillies will have to wait until Tuesday to find out who they play. First, the Padres and Giants will play a one-game playoff on Monday to determine the NL West winner. The loser of that game will then fly country to play the Braves on Tuesday to determine the Wild Card winner. If the Braves win the playoff, the Phillies play the Reds. If the Padres win the playoff, the Phillies play the Padres.

@Manny: Yeah, that’s what I thought. I’m looking at the rules, and they have a complex calculation based on how the teams played during the year to decide who is the division winner and who is the Wild Card if there is a tie in a division like that.

Oh ok.. I guess that makes sense. If the Padres win, then there’s a tie in the NL west… but they wouldn’t play on Monday if the Braves lose because in that case the only teams left are Padres and Giants.. no need to play an extra game. I think I got it.

No, Andrew, that’s not the reason. The rule is that if there is a division tie and one of the teams would be the Wild Card, the tie is broken based who who won more games in head-to-head competition. Padres have beaten Giants head-to-head this year.

We can still play the Giants if we lose. If the Braves and Padres win, and the Padres win the playoff with the Giants, then the Giants travel to Atlanta to play for the wild card. If the Giants win that, then we still play them in the first round. If that were the scenario, the Giants will likely use Sanchez and Bumgarner against the Padres, and then it would be Lincecum’s turn in the rotation to face the Braves. Granted, this would probably be the best-case scenario, since we would only see Lincecum once in the NLDS unless he pitches on short rest.

You go over and fight mike tyson. If given a choice Ill fight richard simmons.

Make no doubt abut it the biggest threat to the phillies is the giants in a 5 game series with Timmy on full rest. not the yankees not the Rays not injuries not anything but that. In a 7 gamer he doesnt matter as much. Its simple math. But hey call me a pussy.
I am not rooting for the phillies to lose. If they lose it isnt a bad thing though.
Yup I fear Koufax and Halladay and Lincecum. They are 3 of the best ever.

Chuck I am just saying
Not to mention that us losing and Sd winning causes the chaos of a 3 team tie.

I do not want the phillies to lose tomorrow. I simply dont really want them to win that badly.

It is in the giants interst to win tomorrow regardless.
It will play out. Its jsut a funny situation.
trust me i have no fear of the Reds or Padres or Twins or Yankees or rangers. Certainly not the Braveless. Who should man up and win tomorrow.

Its all good agreed
Just funny how it played out. If the giants burn timmy tomorrow you want to play them more than any other team. Because minus him in a game 1 or 2 they are the worst team in the playoffs.
Will be intersting and tomorrow is my last chance to see Wheeler and his har. Ill miss him. Really wish he was doing the playoffs. I cant stand mccarver.

If the Braves get in…they’re damaged goods anyway. The way they back-doored it after blowing the division.

If the Padres get in…they actually could be dangerous in the first round…because they will have pulled something out of a hat this weekend that NOBODY thought was possible. But they will be beat up in the process.

If the Giants get in….but lose tomorow….they are damaged goods too….and beat up from an extra playoff game (or two).

The Reds are secure in their spot and could be the most dangerous team right now (outside of the Phillies).

It is funny.
i am not even saying there should be any lack of effort etc etc.

Just saying that hypothetcily a phillies loss tomorrow may benefit the team.
when I thnk about how pathetic the Braves are. The last 2 games are an absolute disgrace.
Honesly worse than the Mets collapses
This is the end of bobbys career. They actually have some fans in attendence. Phils start KK and Worley
They dont deserve to be in any playoffs.
If it wasnt for my man crush on wheeler id nto watch tomorrow even

Worley did a nice job today. He threw to many pitches up in the zone but was able to mix it up enough to keep them off balance. Im liking what i see. The Phils need to audition more of there young talent. Specially next year when we lose Durbin, JC, Contreras and yes Moyer. The Phils might get 2 on the market but they still will have to bring up at least one of these guys up from minors i believe.

Braves are looking terrible right about now but, then again, none of the National League contenders are looking really good except for the Phillies. The Reds are getting in on the strength of the Cardinals collapsing. The Padres gave the Division to the Giants and the Giants now want to give it back to them. All the Braves had to do was beat Kendrick, Worley, and the mish-mash of pitchers we will throw tomorrow two out of three times, AT HOME, as they would be the Wild Card but they have failed spectacularly at it so far.

The only National League team who is playing like they belong in the big show is the Philadelphia Phillies. At this point I don’t care how things work out tomorrow. We can beat anyone of them.

The Phils will beat any team they face. They are hot, they have been here before, they know what to expect and how to prepare. They also have two outstanding pitchers (Halladay and Oswalt) who want to win more than anything. This team will beat every team it plays in the playoffs and the World Series. It will be fun and it will be eye-opening. Don’t sweat a thing. We are the best Phillies team in history. And we are the best team in baseball right now….by far. Look at our record during August and September. That record is for real. So are the Phils. Plus Rollins is going to be healthy and he is anxious to play under the limelight. Time to place your bets !!!!! If you are listening to sports talk radio in Cincinnatti, San Francisco, or San Diego you will realize that the fans out there are scared to death of the Phillies Machine.