Posts tagged ‘BP’

Aside from a brief blip, oil prices have remained stubbornly below $50/b in recent weeks despite fresh concern over global demand and rising geopolitical tensions. On the supply side, the market’s gaze has gravitated to that most closely watched of oil market variables — the response of US shale output to weaker oil prices.

In this week’s Oilgram News, Regulation and Environment, Gary Gentile looks at the after-effects of Deepwater Horizon on offshore production elsewhere and has a bonus segment about the future of the Renewable Fuels Standard in the US, which could impact both the oil industry and biofuels producers.

As news of the Volkswagen scandal broke in the US, it was only a matter of time before the storm hit Europe’s shores. The news was just one more log on the blaze of bad publicity the diesel industry has received in recent times. Moreover, in cultural terms, nitrogen oxide emissions seem to have overtaken carbon dioxide as the more “evil” of the two pollutants.

As if the recent oil price dive to the lowest level in six years wasn’t enough to keep industry nerves on edge, the current price volatility is proving just as hostile to producers as sliding margins.

After bottoming out in late January at $45/b, NYMEX crude had recovered to $60/b by May, in a correction now widely seen as premature as it was overcooked. Bears pointed to the stubborn and growing glut of global oil supply hanging over the market.

If the rebound was quick, the subsequent fall has been just as dramatic and the double-dip in oil prices has been more severe than many predicted.

Oil-rich Azerbaijan is being rattled by disruption and attacks on pipelines, highlighting its tough geopolitical position and adding to worries about falling oil prices.

Having been courted by previous US governments, international interest in Azerbaijan and fellow Caspian producer Kazakhstan has waned in recent years, not least because of the increase in US shale oil production. Azerbaijan’s oil production is, in any case, thought to have peaked.

But with 848,000 b/d of output last year, Azeri production still matters.

In a move last week that many commentators might see as a real blow for a company already struggling to convince the world of its environmentally friendly credentials, oil giant BP announced it had decided to sell its share in the UK’s largest bioethanol plant.

Many of the themes raised Monday at IHS CERAWeek were reprised Tuesday, the second day of the conference. But Tuesday’s offerings were decidedly more global, and our oil editors here share some of their thoughts on what they saw and heard.

You can find news stories and tweets from Tuesday shared on @PlattsOil (including one tweet that we felt needed a retweet from @PlattsCoal). You can also read thoughts from our reporters on the first day here.

In the US, March often means spring break: children and young adults have a week off school and classes and families take the time to travel, have some adventures in their hometowns, or just try to catch up and catch their breath as the year continues its hurtle forward.

You may have thought we were taking a break from The Oil Big Five, since this entry is coming midmonth instead of at the beginning of March. Thankfully, that’s not the case, and we’ve caught our breath enough to share this listing of five big oil topics our oil editors and analysts worldwide think are among the most important. Leave us your thoughts in the comments below — are there others you want recognized, or would you like to chime in support that one of these topics is affecting you somehow? — and drop us your feedback on Twitter with the hashtag #oilbig5.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, BP CEO Bob Dudley took a bearish view on the price of oil, noting that the present feels like 1986, when oil slumped from $30 a barrel to $10 and did not recover until in 1990. “The fundamental supply and demand does remind me of 1986 a bit, where we could go into a period in this decade of lower oil prices,” Dudley noted, adding that prices may stay in a range below $60 for as long as three years. “It will be a long time before we see $100 again.”

I agree with Dudley: 1986 is the appropriate template for today’s oil market dynamics. However, the understanding of the precedent is incomplete, and the analogy, imperfect. The differences matter.

The math doesn’t work for a lot of oil projects as the price continues to slide. Robert Perkins, in this week’s Oilgram News column Petrodollars, reviews the capital investment conundrum many companies are facing.