Weather Blog: Enjoy today, cool and wet weather ahead

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! A much needed break from cool and damp weather is about to end, as rain showers return to the forecast. Find out when you will need an umbrella, how much rain to expect, and when frost is possible in today's blog.

Enjoy highs in the 70s today, temperatures this warm will likely not return until Tuesday of next week. That means a stretch of 4-5 days with temperatures near or below average.

The change in our weather arrives Thursday with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be highest from Waukesha to Milwaukee and points south. Low pressure will travel to the south of Wisconsin pushing an area of rain through southern Wisconsin. The exact path of the low will help determine how far north the steadier rains make it into southeast Wisconsin. Rain may begin sometime Thursday morning, but the best chance will arrive Thursday afternoon.

Let's check out a couple of rainfall forecast for Thursday. Starting with our high resolution computer model...the RPM. The forecast below shows a 0.50" or so of rain in Milwaukee, with higher totals to the west and south.

Since a few thunderstorms are possible, higher totals will occur in locations the cells move over. Another model we use is called the GFS. The forecast map below shows forecast rain totals for Thursday through 9pm. This model pushes higher rain totals a little farther north in southern Wisconsin. This would sneak Milwaukee into the 0.75"-1.00" range.

While no severe weather is expected at this time, you can always get the latest severe weather threat index on WISN 12 News. Our new chart makes it easy for you to see the potential threats a day ahead of time.

With rain exiting early Friday, winds shift to the northeast and become gusty. This wind direction will drag in chilled air from Lake Michigan keeping highs in the 50s on Friday. The surface map below is valid at 7am Friday showing low pressure to our southeast. With a counterclockwise flow around the low, northeast winds are a good bet.

Below average temperatures will prevail very likely through Monday in southeast Wisconsin. A reinforcing push of cool air arrives Saturday afternoon and evening. This will send temperatures into the 30s by Sunday morning. The forecast temperature map below shows mid to upper 30s in our area, with very likely low 30s in central and northern Wisconsin.

We will watch the chilly air close, as a chance of frost may enter the forecast Sunday or Monday morning very close to home.

For the latest weather information watch WISN 12 News, and for updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather

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