Risk Rewarded Blog

Academics love to say that the market is efficient and reflects all publicly available information with Vulcan-like logic and lack of emotion.Yet any third-grader with experience in a sandbox knows that's not true. Manias, panics, enthusiasm, dejection, envy and regret cloud traders' judgements, and result in persistent mispricing.It looks like some...

While all the focus has been on the Federal Reserve over the
past week, and stocks overall have paused for breath, companies like Darden (DRI) are being rewarded for
doing the good work of capitalism: Growing, building, expanding, finding
efficiencies, and ultimately expanding earnings.
A solid quarterly report last week has unleashed a torrent
of...

Gemini VF1, which trades the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) futures, logged a $1,350 gross profit, or +5.4%, for its $25k model portfolio on Wednesday after a fourteen-day trading sequence that involved four contracts.The system is now up $6,500 gross for the year, or 26%. That's more than double its annual subscription fee with...

The chips are down. Or at least the ones in elder care are.
The Philadepihia
Semiconductor Index more than doubled from late 2012 to a high
earlier this month. It's been a
solid, nearly unblemished advance powered by excitement over the internet of
things (everyday objects connected digitally) and excitement about a PC upgrade cycle
after Microsoft...

In the two years between late 2012 and late 2014, transportation stocks -- cargo and people movers like UPS (UPS), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and CSX (CSX) -- were the place the be. TheDow Jones Transportation Average gained nearly 90% in a rise that was as unstoppable as a freight train; more than double the...

The setbacks this week have pushed the S&P 500 under its 50-day moving average for the first time since January, and the benchmark index is now down 1% for the year.The damage is getting serious: The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-day moving average has declined to just 44%. And this is not a matter of a bunch of nobodies getting hit....

Our bond futures programs Gemini TY completed its first sequence of the year Friday for a big $1,953.08 gross profit.The system started shorting the 10 Year Note (TY) futures on Jan. 15, and ultimately over the course of the next 50 days traded seven contracts, as you can see in the table below.Bonds are traded in 32nds rather than decimals....