Will an 18+ game ever succeed on a Nintendo platform?

I've been away for a couple of days so missed out on the big sales story from last week – namely that GTA: Chinatown Wars has seriously underperformed. The Rockstar developed DS title shifted 89,000 units in the US in March, way below the 200-450,000 analyst prediction. And that's despite the game being rather good and certainly not just the retro remake of GTA 1 or 2 that many feared. So what happened? Is the Nintendo DS audience just not interested in "mature" gaming?

Possibly, but it isn't quite that simple. The relatively casual DS audience is unlikely to get hyped for a game launch date like, say, a 360 owner would, meaning DS games tend to sell over a longer term than the short and sweet standard sales period for a game – look at Brain Training. This applies to big name videogame brands too. Call of Duty 4 on the DS sold 36,000 in its first month (Nov '07) but has now shifted 500k. Nintendo, as you would expect, are feeling positive about mature games on the DS. And Alan Lewis from Rockstar owner Take Two is also looking long-term.

We are very confident in Chinatown Wars long-term potential for success. We think it will have a long life in the market.

But even so, you have to wonder how many more publishers will bring their 18+ games to the DS. If Grand Theft Auto – essentially the biggest videogame brand around – struggles then what hope is there for a lesser tier offering?

And it's not just the DS. The Wii is similar. Sega's stylishly bloody MadWorld has shifted a mere 66,000 units in the US and has failed to trouble the charts in the UK. Quality is more of an issue here than Chinatown Wars – MadWorld is repetitive and frustrating – but the sluggish sales do little to dispel the myth that mature games just don't work on Nintendo platforms.

So what do you think then? Will Chinatown Wars steadily grow sales and lead to more mature games on the DS/Wii? Or is it only family and kids games that sell well on Nintendo platforms?