The Last Two Spots

While looking over the standings for all four disciplines, I noticed that with the exception of the ladies, there are two spots open in each. I have decided to make an analysis of at least Men, Pairs, and Ice Dance, though Ladies might give me too much of a headache. First, the Men:

Locked:

1. Patrick Chan
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Brian Joubert
4. Jeremy Abbott

Right now Tomas Verner is fifth in the standings, Alban Preaubert sixth. There are four men competing next week capable of passing them, though it is impossible for all four to do so: Johnny Weir, Stephen Carriere, Yannick Ponsero, & Kevin Reynolds.
In order to get into the top six, Ponsero & Reynolds must win; if either does so, he's in(if either comes in second, he passes Preaubert, but in all probability one of the other three will go ahead of him).
If either Johnny or Carriere make the top two, they pass Tomas. If, however, either wins bronze with a score of 211 or lower, or finishes off the podium Tomas will stay ahead, and will make the Finale, provided neither Ponsero nor Reynolds wins.
The rogue element here, of course, is Nobunari Oda, who cannot qualify for the Finale himself, but if very capable of preventing someone else from doing so.

Prediction:

Johnny & Oda are the top two, in some order. Carriere wins bronze with a high enough score to pass Tomas. Final line-up:

Pairs

Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov are fifth in the standings, Keuna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker sixth. There are only two teams capable of passing them both at this point: Jessica Dubé & Bryce Davison, and Qing Pang & Jian Tong.
Dubé & Davison need only finish in the top two to pass them and get in. Since they are very likely in the weak NHK field to do this, Pang & Tong probably must pass both pairs. For this they must either win gold, or win silver with a score of 166.68 or higher.

Prediction:

Dubé & Davison and Pang & Tong are the top two at NHK, in some order. Pang & Tong score high enough, however, to make which places over the other irrelevant. Final lineup:

Asada and Nakano are in with a top two finish, which is likely. Lepistö is in with a gold, or a silver if she scores higher than 179.88. Wagner needs a win. Nagasu is in only with a win and only if Asada and Nakano are out of the top 3. However, Lepistö's PB is only 165.65 and it would take a lot of bombing on their parts for Asada & Nakano to finish behind Wagner, Nagasu and Lepisto. So, more than likely the final will be: Kim, Rochette, Asada, Nakano, Kostner & Ando, with Suguri, Flatt & one of Wagner and Lepisto as alternates.