2012 awards race off to slow start

Sundance, Cannes yielded some promising films

The year hits its midpoint on June 30, so we should be halfway through the 2012 awards race, right?

Wrong.

Majors and indies traditionally backload kudos hopefuls in the final quarter. However, there have been recent exceptions. Summit’s “The Hurt Locker” opened in June. And by this point last year, three of the nine best-picture Oscar nominees had been seen, all at Cannes: “Midnight in Paris,” “The Tree of Life” and eventual best-picture winner “The Artist.”

That impressive showing set many hearts aflutter, as pundits scoured this year’s Sundance, Berlin and Cannes for the next “Artist”-ic hopeful. The fests did yield some promising films, including Sundance’s “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “The Sessions” (formerly “The Surrogate”), both from Fox Searchlight, and Cannes’ “Amour” (Sony Pictures Classics).

But in general, it’s been slim pickins, as the kudos race hasshown little energy in the first six months.

However, don’t underestimate “The Avengers.” Awards voters cast ballots for movies they’ve seen, and it seems like everybody in the world has seen the Disney-Marvel megahit.

The expansion of the Oscar and PGA races to more than five nominees also could help that film. The best-pic nomination shutout for 2008’s “The Dark Knight” — back when the Oscars named only five contenders — still hangs like a cloud over the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences and other awards orgs.

Kudos voters will have to get over some preconceptions. They often disdain popcorn movies, but as one Variety staffer observed at the time, “Dark Knight” is to superhero movies what “The Godfather” and “Bonnie and Clyde” were to gangster films: using the genre but taking it to a whole other level. So it’ll be interesting to see the fate of “Avengers,” Warner Bros.’ imminent Christopher Nolan follow-up, “The Dark Knight Rises” and the Sony-MGM “Skyfall,” the next 007 installment, which boasts especially impressive credentials (Sam Mendes, John Logan, et al.).

Being widely seen by voters could be a boon to these pics. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there was work in the first six months that needs to be seen more. The Norwegian thriller “Headhunters” (Magnolia) and Millennium’s “Bernie” (with Jack Black and Shirley MacLaine) were terrif, so one hopes they will be viewed (and remembered) by year-end.

The January-June period also saw pics that won over critics and auds, including Fox Searchlight’s “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”; Open Road’s Liam Neeson drama “The Grey”; Weinstein Co.’s “The Intouchables”; and CBS Films’ “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.”

There was spectacular below-the-line work on display in “Dark Shadows” (WB), “Prometheus” (Fox), “Battleship” (Universal), “Men in Black 3″ (Sony), “Act of Valor” (Relativity), “Mirror Mirror” (Relativity), “Snow White and the Huntsman” (U), “Wrath of the Titans” (WB) and “John Carter” (Disney). Many of these were blasted by critics and/or audiences (sometimes unfairly), but BTL voters may give them deserved recognition.

The DreamWorks-Disney “Lincoln,” directed by Steven Spielberg, will open in the fourth quarter; also undated is “The Impossible” (Lionsgate-Summit’s pic, starring Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor, about a family hit by the 2004 tsunami in Thailand).

Two possible year-end openers: Searchlight’s “Hitchcock,” about the filmmaker, his wife and the making of “Psycho”; and Focus’ “Promised Land” (Gus Van Sant reuniting with Matt Damon).

As always, there are questions. Last year, several films got caught in the crossfire between accelerated voting schedules and last-minute polishing by the filmmakers. Which films will be affected this year?

But the biggest questions don’t center on contenders. BAFTA announced this week a change in its voting procedures (Variety, June 26). AMPAS and other orgs are moving toward electronic voting, so the subject of an earlier kudocast will again be debated. There are pros and cons, but let’s go out on a limb here and declare absolutely that the problem of TV ratings will not be solved by a date change. Those are two separate discussions, not as intertwined as some folks think.

But these are topics for another day. Meanwhile, happy hunting, everybody.