When major provisions of the federal health care law kick in next year, look for the creation of distinct financial winners — and losers — in Minnesota.

Some people likely will pay more for coverage, experts say, while others will save money with the help of federal subsidies.

A third group — likely the majority of Minnesotans — won’t see much change at all.

But who will fall into which category?

A coalition of Minnesota nonprofit groups, including insurers, launched a website Tuesday, April 2, called MyHealthCareFuture.org to help people get a sense for how their health insurance costs and coverage might change under the new law.

“There is a lot of confusion around the federal health care law,” said Kate Johansen, manager of health policy for the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce, which is among the groups supporting the new website.

“We are hopeful that this will provide a tool that’s neutral, educational and gives people a general idea of how the (health law) will impact them.”

For most people, the law will not bring major changes, said Elaine Cunningham of the Children’s Defense Fund Minnesota, another group that collaborated on the project.

But for the small share of state residents covered under small-business and individual health insurance markets, “that’s where most people are going to be affected,” she said.

The Minnesota Council of Health Plans, which is the trade group for nonprofit health insurers in the state, funded development of the online tool, which will help consumers learn how their situations might change.

Trade group spokeswoman Eileen Smith said that after answering a series of questions, consumers will get a report that suggests the range of premium increases or decreases they might see.

She said the online tool is not a calculator, because nobody yet knows the exact premium rates for 2014. Plus, anyone eligible for subsidies under the law will have to factor in those tax credits to fully understand its impact on their out-of-pocket costs.

With the help of the online tool, consumers will be able to determine if they might be eligible for subsidies or a public health insurance program, Smith said.

“We did this because there’s a lot of information available, but none of that information is easy to understand,” said Smith, who said the questions should take less than five minutes to answer.

The federal Affordable Care Act, which President Barack Obama signed into law in March 2010, ushers in a wide variety of changes next year that will affect the cost and comprehensiveness of health insurance. But the impact on individuals will vary depending on how they obtain coverage.

About 40 percent of Minnesotans are covered through large-employer plans, Smith said. The online tool explains how such plans will be subject to a new tax in 2014 as part of the law, but the impact will be relatively minor.

There could be much bigger changes, Smith said, for people who buy individual health insurance policies without the help of an employer. The same goes for those covered by small businesses with fewer than 50 people.

Currently, about 348,000 Minnesotans — about 7 percent of the population — receive coverage through small-employer plans, Smith said. They could see premiums and coverage change in four key ways.

The biggest change, Smith said, is that the law will prevent insurers from basing premiums on the health status of groups. Until now, insurers have given discounts to relatively healthy small groups while effectively penalizing groups with workers who use more health care.

As the penalties and discounts go away next year, premiums could decrease for some small-employer groups in Minnesota by up to 22 percent, Smith said, while increasing by as much as 26 percent for other small employers.

Small-employer groups also will face more taxes related to the law, Smith said, although some variables could push the tax toll up or down. The online tool walks consumers through these variables, Smith said, as well as other potential changes for small groups such as new federal limits on out-of-pocket costs.

Many of the same variables are at play for people who obtain coverage on the individual health insurance market, but the online tool also shows the impact from others.

Consumers on the individual market, however, are expected to see premium savings from improved competition. The law requires state-level health exchanges to be functioning in all 50 states by October, and those marketplaces are intended to improve competition in the individual health insurance market.

About 220,000 Minnesotans were covered through these policies in 2011, but the number is expected to double because of federal subsidies for many purchases as well as tax penalties starting next year for people who don’t have coverage.

Marc Conklin, a self-employed writer who was hired to help develop the online tool, said he likely will pay more for health insurance next year because of the law. But the analysis of winners and losers, Conklin said, has short- and long-term aspects to it.

The bottom line, he said, is many people just don’t know much about the federal law.

“People who support the law tend to see it as a panacea,” Conklin wrote in an email. “People who are against it tend to see it as welfare. The truth, as always, is a lot more complicated.”

Christopher Snowbeck can be reached at 651-228-5479.

FYI

MyHealthCareFuture.org is available for all Minnesota residents who want answers to how the Affordable Care Act will affect them.

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