December 23, 2012

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, speaks to reporters about the fiscal cliff at the Capitol on Friday. / Associated Press

By Alan Fram

Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- John Boehner is a bruised House speaker following the startling setback that his fractious Republican troops dealt him in their struggle against President Barack Obama over the so-called fiscal cliff.

There's plenty of internal grumbling about the Ohio Republican, especially among conservatives, and lots of buzzing about whether his leadership post is in jeopardy. But it's uncertain whether any other House Republican has the broad appeal to seize the job from Boehner or whether his embarrassing inability to pass his own bill preventing tax increases on everyone but millionaires is enough to topple him.

"No one will be challenging John Boehner as speaker," predicted John Feehery, a consultant and former aide to House GOP leaders. "No one else can right now do the job of bringing everyone together" and unifying House Republicans.

The morning after he yanked the tax-cutting bill from the House floor to prevent certain defeat, Boehner told reporters he wasn't worried about losing his job when the new Congress convenes Jan. 3.

"They weren't taking that out on me," he said Friday of rank-and-file GOP lawmakers, who, despite pleading from Boehner and his lieutenants, left them shy of the needed votes. "They were dealing with the perception that somebody might accuse them of raising taxes."

That "somebody" was a number of outside conservative groups, such as the Club for Growth and Heritage Action for America, which openly pressured lawmakers to reject Boehner's bill.

This time, his retreat on the tax measure was an unmistakable blow to the clout of the 22-year House veteran known for an amiable style and a willingness to make deals.

Bargaining power

Congressional leaders amass power partly by their ability to command votes, especially in showdowns. His failure to do so Thursday stands to weaken his muscle with Obama and among House Republicans.

"It's very hard for him to negotiate now," said Sarah Binder, a George Washington University political scientist, adding that it's premature to judge whether Boehner's hold on the speakership is in peril. "No one can trust him because it's very hard for him to produce votes."

She said the loss weakens his ability to summon support because "you know the last time he came to you like this, others didn't step in line."

Boehner, 63, also faces unvarnished hostility from some conservatives.

"We clearly can't have a speaker operate well outside" what Republicans want to do, said Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kan., one of four GOP lawmakers who lost prized committee assignments following clashes with party leaders. That punishment was an anomaly for Boehner, who is known more for friendly persuasion than arm-twisting.

He said Boehner's job would depend on whether the speaker is "willing to sit and listen to Republicans first, or march off" and negotiate with Obama.

Defenders say Boehner has been dealt a difficult hand. They say that in nearly two years as speaker, he's been field general over an unruly GOP majority confronting a Democratic president and Senate, steering them to the best outcomes possible.

"He's doing a good job in a tough situation," said Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio.

Republicans watching closely for overt or subtle moves by would-be challengers to Boehner said Friday that they had detected none, though such moves are notoriously secretive.

The House elects its speaker by majority vote on the first day of the new session. Because the 201 Democrats will probably all back Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for the job, a GOP effort to depose Boehner would have to occur internally and before the full House votes so Republicans -- with 234 seats -- pick one of their own.

More Details: In the wings?

Some GOP lawmakers and aides suggest these four GOP House members could replace Boehner if the Ohio Republican is challenged as speaker:

• Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia

• U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, third-ranking House Republican

• U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

• U.S. Rep. Tom Price of Georgia

Cantor was at Boehner’s side Friday as both men met with reporters.

Cantor, McCarthy and Ryan lobbied GOP colleagues for Boehner’s fiscal cliff plan, giving Republicans angry over the measure little reason to turn to them as alternatives.