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BREXIT — THE NON-DIALOGUE BETWEEN FINANCE AND GOVERNMENT: We don’t talk any more. Or, in this case, they don’t talk any more. “They” refers to the financial industry and the U.K. government. In the halcyon days of David Cameron’s administration, the City felt it had a direct line to both the PM and his finance minister, George Osborne. Not anymore.

What’s changed? The new ruling elite, with the exception of the new finance minister (and former businessman) Philip Hammond, is very suspicious of banks for political, economic, and Brexit reasons.

Politically, Theresa May has made a point of being seen as a PM for little people, not big-walleted ones. On the economic front, there’s a lot of talk in government circles about “rebalancing” the U.K. economy away from financial services and London. And in Brexit terms, the anti-EU camp in May’s cabinet doesn’t want to hear from firms that clearly benefit from the single market.

‘Don’t call me Dave’ — finance’s frosty encounters with David Davis: Several executives have recounted similar stories of meeting with the “Minister for Brexit”: He seems not interested in the industry’s claims that a “hard Brexit” would affect thousands of jobs and the U.K. economy; his people tell bankers that they are exaggerating the effects of an EU divorce for lobbying purposes; and there’s a general sense that Davis and his crew don’t believe finance is that important to domestic growth.

What can the industry do? I know of one big international bank that has decided to stop talking to the U.K. government. Meaning that its representatives would go to meetings, if asked, but won’t contribute much. That’s how bad the relationship is. Treasury is still a sympathetic ear but, so far, Hammond hasn’t been able to punch his weight.

M.E. takeaway: It’s all about Theresa. David Davis is being the pro-Brexit firebrand he is. Hammond is in the industry’s corner (up to a point), but the final call belongs to the PM. Finance executives hope that a combination of unsettled markets and an economic slowdown early next year would persuade May to soften her stance. For the City, that would mean a strong call for the EU to grant a transition period of up to five years after 2019, an effort to negotiate some sort of access to the single market, and softer curbs on immigration. But from where we stand now, it’s not looking good …

Further reading — Davis made a financial stability argument for why the EU should not weaken the City: In a question-and-answer session in the House of Commons. The Financial Times’ George Parker and Mehreen Kahn: http://on.ft.com/2dqt1Vc

IS THE UK GOVERNMENT OVER LORD HILL? Well-connected insiders have, by now, heard the rumor: a return of Jonathan Hill on to the European stage via some sort of role in the U.K. Brexit team. My sources told me that one possibility would have been to have the former commissioner lead a fact-finding group canvassing businesses’ views on the potential deals. The arrangement may have been discussed at some point, but senior sources told POLITICO that it’s not live at the moment. Hill himself declined a request to comment.

See below for more Brexit news, including an interesting but ultimately unworkable proposal for a “regional visa” for skilled workers.

DRIVING THE DAY: The eurozone consumer confidence number for October is the only macroeconomic data of note. It’s expected to fall to -8.6 from -8.2, which is not great. Watch out also for the market’s reaction to the European Council (non) decisions.

FORGET ‘HELICOPTER MONEY,’ GIVE CONSUMERS A CREDIT CARD: A reader who works at a central bank of an EU member country emails with this proposal: “EU citizens would be given a credit card with no option to withdraw money but with the possibility of spending its credit on holidays within the EU.” What do others think?

MARIO DRAGHI IS KEEPING US IN SUSPENSE … to borrow a phrase from a certain U.S. presidential candidate. The head of the European Central Bank didn’t tackle any of the important questions on extending quantitative easing beyond March 2017 or “tapering” its volume. What to make of it? The euro wasn’t quite sure and swung wildly during Draghi’s press conference. Some other views below.

Marilyn Watson, head of global fundamental fixed income strategy at BlackRock: “We believe that any future loosening is likely to be via other tools, such as asset purchases, rather than significant changes to key policy rates.”

Carsten Brzeski, ING’s chief economist for Germany and Austria: “The ECB is not yet ready to extend QE. The recovery of the eurozone economy is not weak enough to justify more stimulus but also not strong enough to light-heartedly talk about tapering. This is why the ECB is simply buying time … At the December meeting, our view is that the ECB will announce an extension of QE until the end of 2017, possibly at a slower pace than the current €80 billion.”

M.E. quick thoughts: Draghi’s question-ducking on Thursday sets up the December meeting as a huge event. As often, the markets will see it as binary event. Either the ECB pleases them with a six-month extension of QE and no tapering, or the disappointment will set in (and translate into a rising euro).

Further reading: POLITICO’s Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli: “With investors, governments and financial journalists all straining their ears to hear his every word on what’s next for his extraordinary effort to stimulate the still-sluggish eurozone economy, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi today basically told them to come back again on December 8.” Read the full story here: http://politi.co/2dr8Kid, (for Pros)

US BANKS HAVE DONE BETTER THAN EUROPEAN BANKS (AGAIN) THIS QUARTER: That’s the conclusion of Kian Abouhossein, a top analyst at J.P. Morgan, after analyzing the recent earnings by U.S. banks. “The theme of low [profitability] in Eurobank [investment banking units] continues, with [investment banks] unable to illustrate cost cutting,” he writes.

BEN BERNANKE ON WHY THE FRENCH ARE ALMOST AS RICH AS THE AMERICANS: Thought-provoking piece by the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, with Peter Olson, for Brookings. Bernanke and Olson focus on a different way to measure wealth that goes beyond the usual metric of median income. The measure, known as the Jones-Klenow method, takes into account “not only growth in per capita consumption but also changes in working time, life expectancy, and inequality.”

The bottom line: French people enjoy almost the same level of economic welfare as people living in the U.S. even though their real GDP per capita is only 67 percent of the one of the average American. Why?

“The French take long vacations and retire earlier, so typically work fewer hours; they enjoy a higher life expectancy at birth (80 years in 2005, compared to 77 in the U.S.), presumably reflecting advantages with respect to health care, diet, lifestyle, and the like; and income and consumption are somewhat more equally distributed there than in the U.S.,” the authors write. The U.K. and Italy also scored highly on that metric.

IS RENEWED CCCTB PUSH DOA?: POLITICO’s Bjarke Smith-Meyer: “The new CCCTB has yet to be born, but reservations are already beginning to surface outside the halls of the Commission. The first attempt to introduce a common consolidated corporate tax base in 2011 was optional to all companies operating across the EU bloc. That initiative failed, and ‘now it’s mandatory and targets at big companies,’ an EU official told POLITICO. ‘How will that be any easier?’

“European Parliamentarian Anneliese Dodds, meanwhile, questioned the Commission’s decision to introduce the CCCTB rules in two stages. The EU’s executive arm aims to introduce a common corporate tax base first, before it takes on the ambitious task of reaching a deal on consolidation — which means adding up all the profits and losses of a company from different member countries, to arrive at a net profit or loss for the whole of its activity in the EU. ‘I’m worried about the Commission’s decision to split the proposal in half,’ S&D’s Dodds said. ‘How can we guarantee that it genuinely happens in parallel, and that we won’t end up with a half-finished job? The Commission needs to provide more clarity on how they can guarantee that a full, comprehensive CCCTB is ultimately adopted.’

Pierre Moscovici, the Commission’s czar for tax, will travel to Strasbourg next week to address any potential concerns that Parliamentarians may have. The bill is then expected to be officially presented in Brussels on Wednesday at 11 a.m.”

ICE CHIEF SLAMS MiFID II: The outspoken Jeff Sprecher, CEO of Intercontinental Exchange (which owns the New York Stock Exchange, among other trading venues), was being, well, outspoken at an industry conference in Chicago. The Wall Street Journal’s Alexander Osipovich was there: It is ‘a terrible piece of legislation that imposes tremendous costs on the industry,’ he said according to The WSJ.

THE ECONOMIST SAYS PRIVATE EQUITY IS ‘BOTH GOOD AND DISTURBING’: The magazine focuses on the remarkable success of a low-profile industry. “Alas, at the moment it seems that internal and external constraints on public companies are holding that performance in check. The result is that the old lions of private equity, and their many cubs, could be making themselves ever more comfortable for decades to come.” http://econ.st/2enLzGM

MORE BREXIT: Featuring visas, Pascal Lamy and Kit-Kat bars …

City of London proposes ‘regional visas’: POLITICO’s Bjarke Smith-Meyer: “Non-U.K. employees could be granted ‘regional visas’ to ensure that businesses can address their local skills shortage as Britain prepares to exit the European Union. The proposed framework was put forward on Thursday by the City of London Corporation with the help of PwC in a report discussing which visa regime should be applied to EU migrant workers once the U.K. exits the single market.” http://politi.co/2dqyk6Z (for Pros)

M.E. spoke to a few financial services lawyers … and they weren’t enthused by the proposed scheme. Partly because they would still have to move some staff if they have no access to the single market. And partly because it’s unlikely the May government will go for this initiative.

Lamy says Brexit might not happen: The former head of the World Trade Organization and former European Commissioner said there’s a small chance Brexit will become Neverexit. Financial News’ Mark Cobley and Andrew Pearce report: http://bit.ly/2dqA7c4

Can you take a break if having a Kit-Kat costs more? First, it was Marmite, an obscure and disgusting substance only known to Brits. But now it looks like the fall in the pound might hammer one of the most durable and popular snacks. POLITICO’s Paul Dallison wrote a crunchy story about it (I couldn’t resist …): http://politi.co/2dqwVx8

Bundesbank official tells May to lay off Carney: Andreas Dombret told politicians to stay out of monetary decisions in a speech in London. The Wall Street Journal’s Tom Fairless: http://on.wsj.com/2enN4F5