Editor’s note: this table and analysis were updated 1/17/14, 9:00p PST. Some fan picks have moved significantly since the initial post.

The table below lists the allotment of fan picks based on the “pick distribution” for Confidence pools available presently on Yahoo.

Confidence

Points

%Fans

16

8

26%

DEN

SEA

26%

SEA

DEN

20%

DEN

SF

9%

SF

NE

9%

NE

SEA

7%

SEA

NE

2%

NE

SF

1%

SF

DEN

Confidence pool analysis and tactical suggestions:
There is considerable disagreement across fan picks, which makes for some decent potential for tactical maneuvering. If you’re within 8 points of someone ahead of you, even without any tactics by you at all there is a modest chance you could catch them just by entering the highest expected point total slate (16 DEN, 8 SEA). Among slates with 16 points on Denver, 44% of them pick SF instead of SEA. Among slates with 16 on SEA, they’re highly skewed toward DEN.

At this point, if you’re behind by over 16 points, I suggest the second least popular slate, 16 on NE and 8 on SF. The chance of both teams winning is about 1/6. Chances are you’ll be the only one in your pool with that slate, and in the event both teams win you’ll move up anywhere from 8 to 24 points on everyone else.