Sunday, April 02, 2006

Peru :electoral outlook.

Before 7 days of the elections, the Peruvian electoral outlook seems enough cleared. As most national and international observers said, the one that has his ticket to the second presidential round is Ollanta Humala (Center-Left. PN-UPP). And, although all indicate that he would dispute the second round with Lourdes Flores (Right.UN), it is evident that in the last days, Alan Garcia (Social-Democracy. APRA), in continuous ascent in its intention of vote is approaching closely to her. But as (to state of the results of the totality of the surveys), in an eventual second round, Garcia would lose for extensive margin set against any of their contenders. So, in practice (with 99% of certainty), alone remain 2 candidates in fight: O. Humala and L. Flores. Independently of it, what more calls the attention to the international observers, is that the PN-UPP, with barely 1 year of existence, head the intentions of presidential vote, nevertheless to have as rival to 2 of the parties more mature and organized of Peru: The APRA with 70 and the UN, with 40 years of existence, respectively. The columnist Juan Forero of : http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/world/americas/02peru.html?_r=1&oref=slogin , analyzing the causes of this joint, imitates our prior opinions, in the sense that this was due to the scarce capacity of the traditional political parties to shorten the enormous inequalities of the present Peru, where a minority (1,5 million Peruvians) concentrates the 90% of the wealth, in the meantime to the remainders 25,5 million, little touches them very or almost nothing -the same that by way of protest- chose in the last 25 years to A. Garcia and then in succession to 3 outsiders: Fujimori, Toledo and today: Humala. The improper previous situation, obviously requires changes. Because of it, all indicates that any be the result of the first electoral round (09/04/06), the Peru will not be again the same one, from then. Will be a better Peru, by the following reasons:

1) Before the imminence of the second electoral round (May/2006), the 24 political groups in fray, will be seen forced to be regrouped –to be polarized- around interests of group and affinity, but more by common national interests, in order not to be left behind or extinguished, in a country that has enormous natural wealth which begins to be shown and integrated with sound to the international economic community. All indicates that will be formed 2 large fronts articulated around economic axes, instead that around Jurassic political conceptions. In these conditions the integrated parties will be seen forced to give, more than to require, in such way that at the end all be winners. Some alliances will be unexpected (but logical). From the 09/04/06, Paniagua, Martha Chavez, Andrade, J. Bedoya, C. Bruce, Waissman, Ferrero, etc (the unique that will surpass the electoral fence of the 4%), will understand that alone are nothing. So much L. Flowers as Garcia, have declared some days ago its intention to form alliances. Last night, Humala, interviewed in the Program Two forward Fingers (Channel 2 TV), declared his intention to arrange and to talk with other political forces with a view toward the second round and that in the case to win, his government will give room to all the Peruvians and not alone to the of his party.

2) the second has to do with the elevation of the degree of conscience -that the main social-economic groups and most of the Peruvians on foot, have acquired, around our potentialities as a united country. To nobody escapes, the possibility to be benefited direct or indirectly of the farming-exporting boom, the gas of Camisea, the phosphates of Bayovar, the fishing, the growing craftwork, the tourism (included the ecological), industries capable to generate huge wealth. Therefore, the need to implement in our country similar pacts to the Moncloa or Fixed Point, occur already in urgent proposals and of general acceptance. Maturity specified also by the great coincidence of objectives in most governments plans, exposed. The 24 candidates know what have to do, case to agree to power. Even, in the theme of the Treaty of Free Commerce (TLC), with USA, nobody is opposed to its execution, reflecting the differences, only the total of monetary compensations to be offered to certain unprotected Peruvian agricultural sectors, during the process of adaptation to this formidable economic avenue. As all they coincide in that the lost opportunities should be avoided arranging and talking, the second round promises to be a very singular political event.

3- Add guarantees to the last thing, the one that the 3 candidates traveled through the Peru inextensive –almost the double one that in previous campaigns- having mobilized for land, in airplanes, helicopters, in prompt and so fast form that in 24 hours they were in an extreme place of the Peru and in hours in the afternoon or the night in some mediatic program of national reach. As never, all the channels of TV, inaugurated free electoral stripes, that permitted the 24 candidates to expose their programs of government. The visual message has penetrated depth in most Peruvians brains, the peruvians are more reported that before. The contact between the candidates and the people has been but narrow that in previous elections. With the presence of international viewers and the spokespersons of each party, the possibility of fraud is null. The leaders of the plans of government and the presidential candidates have accepted to debate to national level, in the second round. Good for them and for our country.