Man – I’ve listened to and read plenty of experts weigh in on this Sunday’s match-up with the NYJ. NOBODY, and I mean NOBODY thinks the Packers will win. The spread is even a fairly monstrous -6.5 for the Jets. I feel like I’m missing something here. I know we’re beat up and I know that we’re not the same team right now that was a threat to go to the Super Bowl earlier this year. I realize that. But here is why this game will at least be close and why the Packers just might win.

Our defense is a concern, especially facing a strong running attack like the Jets have. The key there will be our LBs as the NYJ’s O-Line will have its way with our limited D-Line. But if our LBs can rise up and at least slow down the run, that will put the game in the hands of Mark Sanchez – which is what we want.

I am one guy who is not sold on Mark Sanchez. He has played really well in a few games this year, no question. And his offense is moving the ball far better than it appeared they would after their Week 1 debacle against Balt. (Though the offense was sluggish again in its last game against Denver.) But Mark Sanchez is still young and while watching 3 different Jet games this year, I’ve seen moments of significant impatience on his part. Yes, he’s maturing and making some better decisions – but I don’t think Balt-type games are totally out of his system yet. Rattle him early and he could have a long day.

Brian Shottenheimer’s game plans for Mark Sanchez are quite simple. Unlike what many coaches do to their young QBs, Shottenheimer sets Sanchez up for success. But I believe good D-Coordinators can see through the simplicity of the NYJ’s offense and attack it. Balt did and I kind of wonder if Capers is drawing something creative up to exploit this fact as well.

None of the NYJ’s WRs are too scary. Dustin Keller is a concern because of our historical problems covering TEs. But maybe if Harris and Bigby are back, we’ll get some coverage help there.

(One guy I do worry about here, ironically, is Jim Leonhard. I lobbied hard for the Pack to go after him when the Ravens weren’t going to re-sign him. Of course we didn’t and now I truly think he’s one of the most reliable safeties in the league.)

We are total underdogs here. We haven’t really enjoyed that status all year but now finally there seems to be less pressure – which is good for us. The Jets meanwhile, have lots of pressure because they have a better record, they are favored and they have a loud-mouth coach who puts more and more pressure on his team every time he talks.

Aaron Rodgers got a gorilla off his back last week. He may not state it publicly (though Darren Colledge practically did), but that win was extremely important to Rodgers. I think it will help him refocus his career going forward on simply being awesome – and not on past Favre-centered stuff. I expect Rodgers to start looking a lot sharper as the season goes on – starting this week.

We still have a very potent passing game that may in fact be developing. Aaron Rodgers wasn’t even sacked last week – against a defense that likes to sack. Our better use of the running game and some play action kept MN’s defense honest (I saw Ray Edwards hesitate at least 3-4 times) and I think our WRs will find that when Rodgers has a little extra time, he’ll get them the ball. Of course for this game, hopefully, McCarthy will prepare Rodgers and co for frequent blitzing – the effect of which can be wiped out by well-planned screens, good quick passes or aggressive 1-on-1 go routes.

Despite our defense being ravaged by injuries, we still have 3 guys (4 if you want to include Collins) capable of changing the game with one play: Bishop (as he did last week), Matthews and Woodson. I expect Matthews to get it going again this week (despite the NYJ’s solid O-Line). I think he’s the kind of guy who is seething right now that he has been shut out the last 2 games. I’m hoping that Bishop’s huge play last week will simply open up the floodgates for some more huge plays going forward. (By the way, be patient with Bishop – he’ll make some errors as any first-time starter does. He’ll probably even get some flags for unnecessary roughness etc – but remember, ultimately that’s better than AJ Hawk who helps guys up before they’ve been tackled). But the guy who really needs to get his head back in the game is Woodson. He was so unbelievably dominant last year from the corner position – he simply cannot continue to be as much of a non-factor as he’s been this year. He’s overdue for some big-time plays (and believe me, he has not enjoyed Rex Ryan’s BS about Woodson not deserving the DPY last year).

Yes, as much as I hate Rex Ryan, I am a bit concerned about my perception (at least) that he’s a better coach than Mike McCarthy. Mike McCarthy, Dom Capers and Aaron Rodgers need to put their collective heads together to come up with a game plan that can dismantle a very good team in a very important game. The Jets are good, but not as good as they think they are. They could use a humbling loss – why not here against the Packers in a game that almost seems they could overlook?

Not good news – another starter out. Though I have to say, as much as the loss of any player hurts, Jones hadn’t been playing at too high of a level this year. His hit on Favre (leading to the Bishop pick-six) was big and he made a few other nice plays. But Zombo ought to be able and step in without too big of a drop-off.

Picking up Howard Green might have been a good move. He’s huge and has experience on the D-Line. We obviously need D-Line bodies and at 340lbs, he’ll be more than just a body. Nice. (Of course, Green was just cut by the Jets so there can never be more than muted excitement when picking up a cut player.)

First of all, nice difficult barrier to get around. Secondly, are they afraid that if they don’t ask this, there might be some underage kids out there who have developed some kind of high tech computer/straw gadget that allows them to suck beer right out of the site?

Anyone else stop to wonder why, when you go to an Irish bar, or any bar now for that matter, your eyebrows raise when the bartender/waiter announces that they have the Irish ale Smithwick’s on tap? Like it’s always been your favorite beer? That has happened to me recently a few times. And then in the car just yesterday, I was listening to a radio ad (for Champps?) talking about all the beer specials on tap for game days. It was clear the advertisers were building up to the crescendo announcement that Smithwick’s was included in the $2 tap deal. As they announced it, I automatically thought “nice, and for only $2”. It was automatic, no thought given to it whatsoever.

But then I stopped and I thought “wait a minute, where did Smithwick’s come from?” I couldn’t remember drinking it at any time in my life before about 6 years ago when my brother-in-law introduced it to me. Prior to that, I had never heard of this product that has somehow brought itself to the fore of the USA’s massive beer drinking culture. When I used to go to an Irish bar, I’d order a Murphy’s Irish Stout if they had it, Guiness if not (or Beamish) – or a Harp if I wasn’t feeling like a darker beer. But I can’t remember ever ordering a Smithwick’s. (For the record: Smithwick’s is Ireland’s oldest ale, owned by Guinness since 1965 – and it’s pronounced without the ‘w’.)

Unless I’m just way off on this (which is very possible), I strongly suspect we’ve all been subjected to one of the most quietly brilliant promotional campaigns ever. Somehow, in what seems like a very short period of time, Smithwick’s now just seems like it’s been here forever.

And the funny thing is – while I don’t dislike the beer, it’s definitely not my favorite (…even though some force somewhere is telling me it is).

Right now, Brett Favre makes over $1 million per game for Minnesota. Yes, $1 million! In return, the Vikes are getting the #30 ranked QB (68.0 QB rating) and the WORST QB with respect to turnovers in the NFL (14). For $1 million a game.