Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

What do you say we become the worst team in the NBA? BCs desperation has left us in NBA no-mans land.:

Not good enough to win a playoff series

Unlikely to even make the playoffs

Still too good to not get an impactful draft pick

Too tied up in terms of cap space to sign a star player

Not enough players with trade via to improve the team via trade

We are headed for AT LEAST 3 more years of irrelevancy as currently constructed under this strategy. This thread is about limiting our continued irrelevancy to only 3 years by aggressively tanking and trading away all current assets for terrible players/contracts and draft picks.

Given that money is no object for the Nets, perhaps they could even pony up some cash for a potential Wallace buy out in 2015. Rudy and Landry are both overpaid, but the Nets do this to get out of the Wallace deal and to add another “star”. Derron/JJ/Rudy/Evans/Brook. That’s a quasi-contender that King can sell to the Russian as a real contender.

Not sure we can land their top 5 pick this year for taking Beez off their hands and giving them Amir. But if we protect it like: Top 10 (2013), Top 5 (2014), Top 5 (2015), Top 3 (2016), unprotected (2017), they might bite on the chance to ditch Beez and we’d still get a lottery pick out of it.

Detroit gives up a mid-lotto pick to get out of 2 bad contracts, get a good one back (Kyle) and add a pretty good young piece on the wing (Demar). Kyle and Demar are probably both better than what they’d get at 7 this draft, and it accelerates their rebuild.

Then we bring back Grey, Anderson and Lucas. Your 2013-2014 Toronto Raptors (!!!!):

Plus a top 10 pick in 2013 from the Pistons (say, MCW). We could provide heavy minutes to a young lineup of MCW/Ross/Jerebko/Acy/Val. Is that bad enough to virtually guarantee a top 3 pick in 2014? I say yes. We might even get a top 3 pick in 2015 with this core. Plus, we get a team with 2 guys named Jonas!

Then Stuckey and Hump are off the books, and Beez/Wallace/Bargs can be bought out or paid to stay home. That leaves us going into 2016 with:

Ross

Val

Acy

Detroit’s 2013 (#7)

Brooklyn’s late 2014 first rounder

Phoenix’s 2014, 2015 2016 pick (likely #6-10)

Our top 3 2014 pick

Our top 3 2015 pick

2 high second round picks of our own

We’d have cap space to fill out the roster with veteran leaders as needed, plus potentially get a star to fill whichever remaining hole is biggest.

We would need a care taker coach for the next few years before bringing in somebody to guide the team forward – similar to the Carlisimo/Brooks handoff in Seattle/OKC (although they may have misfired with Brooks a little). PJ is available.

Now that I’ve gone through all this, my questions for y’all are:

Would you be on board with another 3-5 year rebuild if we really, truly committed to bottoming out?

Do you think a massive rebuild like this is even necessary, or do you want to roll with the core as constructed?

What do you think the likelihood of any/all of these moves from the other team’s perspective? Could this actually be pulled off?

Do you have your own ideas of how to tank & rebuild?

Do you think we could embark on a strategy like this without mortally wounding the development of any young guys (Ross/Val/etc)?

Blowing it up does not necessarily mean the Raps become the worst team in the league. ATL and DEN are two teams who traded their best players and did not miss a beat.

The Raptors need pieces that fit together and fit the direction the franchise has.

At this point in time the pieces don't fit because all the pieces assembled were assembled to fit Bargnani and the franchise has no direction due to Colangelo's undiagnosed ADD (joke on my part but seriously to say he has been all over the place the last 5 years is no exaggeration).

If the Raptors can send out pieces that don't fit for pieces that do while acquiring assets (prospects and picks) who is to say they drop off? I mean the reality is they won 34 games. The worst is as close as average.

ATL and DEN are two teams who traded their best players and did not miss a beat.

Not sure our best players are likely to bring back a haul Carmelo did. We don't have the Smiff/Horford all star combo to fall back on.

Matt52 wrote:

At this point in time the pieces don't fit because all the pieces assembled were assembled to fit Bargnani

Agree, but I don't see how we fix this without nuking everything. Ideas?

Matt52 wrote:

If the Raptors can send out pieces that don't fit for pieces that do while acquiring assets (prospects and picks) who is to say they drop off? I mean the reality is they won 34 games. The worst is as close as average.

Not that it's a sure thing, but the Hollinger calculation on the overall haul is -18 wins. Thats good for the basement. Especially if we tank further by resting guys that are performing well and a tad banged up.

Edit: I misinterpreted the last point I quoted there. But still, is "average" the goal?

Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

In thinking about the current state of the Raptors today, I've been all over the map in my head. I'd love to blow it up on one hand and move forward with JV as the major building block. On the other hand a little tinkering, better coaching, and luck might yield a pretty competitive team. Staying status quo is not an option in my opinion - playing for MAYBE the 8th seed is a loser mentality which has infiltrated and permeated all aspects of the Raptor fan base but more importantly MLSE offices. When we get promotional videos on Raptors.com talking about just making the playoffs as success, my, how far we have fallen. I know you have to start somewhere but do you honestly see this team doing anything more than a first round exit without a lot of highly unlikely things happening? (I'll get to that below).

In terms of tinkering, here is the current starting lineup:

PG: Lowry
SG:
SF: Gay
PF:
C: JV

That is how I feel about the starting lineup. If you can add a stretch 4 (you know, like what Bargnani is theoretically suppose to be) put DeRozan in the starting 2 guard (Christ it isn't hard to tell this team is built around #tradeBargnani). Unfortunately that does not look likely so you need a shooter/floor spacer at the 2 guard. I know many feel the blanks above should be Amir and DD but neither have shown an ability to shoot the 3 with any measure of consistency.

Off the bench the Raptors are looking good assuming Amir is not your starting PF. The wings are Fields and Ross. Your primary back up big is Amir who can play both PF/C and plays with energy/hustle. Your secondary bigs are situational with Gray and Acy. PG is an issue but then you have an exception to address it.

The problem really is the starting SG and PF, in my opinion. It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?

Coaching is a major issue. The fact the Raptors are looking to bring in a young assistant coach to 'relate' to players is a concern - a big concern. Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else. 22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league. I've seen a lot of references to square pegs and round holes in the media of late - not hard to tell they hang out around here, eh? - and it is true. It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defense.

The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.

As I said in another post/thread, the Raptors remain where they have been for years: hoping guys become what they are not (credit to the person who posted Bautista comments earlier). This is what Raptor fans who are hoping for success with the current core are banking on or hoping for:

- DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
- Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
- Lowry returns to Houston form,
- JV is on the track to all star status,
- Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
- Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
- veteran backup PG obtained,
- Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
- Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.

To break it down in its simplest terms, not blowing it up involves:

- Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
- Use MLE to get a backup PG
- Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
- Fields getting his shot back
- Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.

I dont really get it. You want to blow it up so we're not irrelevent for 3 years, but even if we suck and get the #1 3 years in a row we'll still suck.

I think Matt52 nailed it. Just wait it out slowly and trade away parts that dont fit as we go along. In 3 years we're Clear of Fields, Bargnani, Gay, Lowry even Jonhson contracts. The Only thing to watch out for is Colangelo type extensions for players who could become really good but most likely wont.

I hope we never trade a draft pick away again for the next 3 years. Because of this whole season, lets be honest the greatest moments came watching Ed Davis explode, JV improve every week, T Ross winning the Dunk contest. Even if you loose watching your team grow is Fun. Watching a GM destroy your Team looking everywhere for a shortcut, just kills any enthusiasm.

I have no expectations for this team going into next season, and i don't want Colangelo back, because i don't want young assets traded away for someone overrated or past his prime to be 7th seed.

Watching if Lowry-Derozan-Gay can grow together is gonna my entertainment next season, and if they cant, so what ? Lowry and Gay are gonna expire, lets just not extend them for 12 Mil a year on October 31st

Blowing it up cant happen right now, because the only players who could yield a lottery pick are the only players worth watching. Any lottery team is gonna ask for JV, why would you trade him ? so you can take a risk to draft a player who might turn out like him ? Maybe Derozan with someone else (Lowry,Gay, Ross, Johnson) can get a lottery pick, but is that player really gonna be that good to be worth both in his first 2 years ?

Please God no...

I don't think they should blow it up. I think they should move Bargnani and grow this team going forward. They need to get creative. They need someone here with fresh ideas but which don't include blowing it up. As such they should shoot for the playoffs while operating responsibly. Then in a couple years let's revisit this idea based on how far they've come(when Gay's expiring deal is bigtime trade bait).

I'd like to see them make smaller moves for diamonds in the rough in the meantime.

JV and Gay are two really good pieces in the meantime. I think they have a shot at the playoffs next year.

We've become so used to a loser that we crave it and need to find long term solutions to guarantee it. (just kidding )

I don't think they should blow it up. I think they should move Bargnani and grow this team going forward. They need to get creative. They need someone here with fresh ideas but which don't include blowing it up. As such they should shoot for the playoffs while operating responsibly. Then in a couple years let's revisit this idea based on how far they've come(when Gay's expiring deal is bigtime trade bait).

I'd like to see them make smaller moves for diamonds in the rough in the meantime.

JV and Gay are two really good pieces in the meantime. I think they have a shot at the playoffs next year.

We've become so used to a loser that we crave it and need to find long term solutions to guarantee it. (just kidding )

Do you have any offerings as to what you mean by creativity? I'm not sure what you mean by this.

Groundhog Day

They need people in there who are looking ahead to what will work and not what is working right now. The league is so trendy but those who bandwagon jump usually don't see any success.

I would like to see some house cleaning if it makes sense. I'd like to hear tell of some new scouts, young blood that's hungry to make a name for themselves.

Honestly, I'm bored with the Raptors and I'm sick of being told again and again "this time it's gonna be different". Well show me.

Why is Wayne Embre still associated with this team? What good has come from Maurizio Gherardini? Yet these are the kind of guys who tend to hang around era to era with this team. How many GM's is Wayne going to watch get axed? I want to see people held accountable for a change instead of playing musical chairs on the top deck.

I kind of feel like the Raptors are caught in a painful loop. Almost as though it's a five year "groundhog day":

Last edited by Apollo; Mon May 13th, 2013 at 09:48 PM.
Reason: more to say

I'm okay with building around the core, but whoever the GM is needs to be ruthless when negotiating extensions and new contracts. If Gay isn't willing to resign at a level that makes him a value contract, he's gone. Guys like Johnson and Lowry shouldn't expect much of a raise when they become FA's. Best case scenario, in 2015 you've got a good group of young players highlighted by a near all-star JV and some star players on decent contracts. Worst case scenario, you've preserved loads of cap space and nearly $50 million in expiring contracts.

Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

In thinking about the current state of the Raptors today, I've been all over the map in my head. I'd love to blow it up on one hand and move forward with JV as the major building block. On the other hand a little tinkering, better coaching, and luck might yield a pretty competitive team. Staying status quo is not an option in my opinion - playing for MAYBE the 8th seed is a loser mentality which has infiltrated and permeated all aspects of the Raptor fan base but more importantly MLSE offices. When we get promotional videos on Raptors.com talking about just making the playoffs as success, my, how far we have fallen. I know you have to start somewhere but do you honestly see this team doing anything more than a first round exit without a lot of highly unlikely things happening? (I'll get to that below).

In terms of tinkering, here is the current starting lineup:

PG: Lowry
SG:
SF: Gay
PF:
C: JV

That is how I feel about the starting lineup. If you can add a stretch 4 (you know, like what Bargnani is theoretically suppose to be) put DeRozan in the starting 2 guard (Christ it isn't hard to tell this team is built around #tradeBargnani). Unfortunately that does not look likely so you need a shooter/floor spacer at the 2 guard. I know many feel the blanks above should be Amir and DD but neither have shown an ability to shoot the 3 with any measure of consistency.

Off the bench the Raptors are looking good assuming Amir is not your starting PF. The wings are Fields and Ross. Your primary back up big is Amir who can play both PF/C and plays with energy/hustle. Your secondary bigs are situational with Gray and Acy. PG is an issue but then you have an exception to address it.

The problem really is the starting SG and PF, in my opinion. It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?

Coaching is a major issue. The fact the Raptors are looking to bring in a young assistant coach to 'relate' to players is a concern - a big concern. Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else. 22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league. I've seen a lot of references to square pegs and round holes in the media of late - not hard to tell they hang out around here, eh? - and it is true. It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defense.

The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.

As I said in another post/thread, the Raptors remain where they have been for years: hoping guys become what they are not (credit to the person who posted Bautista comments earlier). This is what Raptor fans who are hoping for success with the current core are banking on or hoping for:

- DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
- Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
- Lowry returns to Houston form,
- JV is on the track to all star status,
- Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
- Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
- veteran backup PG obtained,
- Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
- Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.

To break it down in its simplest terms, not blowing it up involves:

- Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
- Use MLE to get a backup PG
- Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
- Fields getting his shot back
- Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.

Even the most steadfast supporters of this current Raptors team seem to admit that they're capped at a 6-8 seed for the next two seasons, and that's assuming a bunch of things go their way. The playoffs are far from a guarantee next season and yet the Raptors have no first round pick, are pushed to the luxury tax, and have very little in terms of moveable assets to upgrade the team via trade. Simply put, they are constructed as a "win now" team... minus the winning part.

Rather than waiting two seasons of average results to elapse, and then beginning a rebuild, I would fully support tearing this thing down immediately if I thought a capable basketball mind was behind the process. The benefits of doing it now instead of waiting would be: you get to take advantage of a couple of great drafts in 2014/15, and you don't waste any of the prime or near-prime of JV in a couple years time.

Here's my plan. Let's go tanking!

Raptors trade Andrea Bargnani and the Sacramento Kings 2014 2nd round pick to the Charlotte Bobcats for Ben Gordon.
Both players are stealing money at this point, but the Bobcats pick up a draft pick that is likely to be in the 30's for taking on another year of bad contract. From their perspective, they rid themselves of the Gordon headache and don't really lose anything basketball wise since they're actively trying to suck anyway.

Raptors trade Rudy Gay & Linus Kleiza to the Los Angeles Lakers for Pau Gasol, who is immediately waived by the Raptors
Gasol would have helped the Raptors win games next season, and we don't want that. We have however carved out a $20 million dollar chunk of cap space for the summer of 2014 with this move though. The Lakers get pretty good value back for Pau as Gay can perform a poor man's Kobe Bryant impression while he battles back. They can also sell the move to Dwight as proof that they are still aiming to compete right now.

Raptors trade DeRozan to Minnesota for Brandon Roy & Luke Ridnour
Raps get the corpse of Brandon Roy (and his expiring deal) and the definition of a stop gap point guard that is also expiring in the summer of 2014. T-Wolves get a starting shooting guard at the cost of cap flexibility exclusively.

Raptors trade Kyle Lowry to the Milwaukee Bucks for their 2014 1st round pick (top 7 protected)
Rather than losing Lowry in free agency next summer, or being strong-armed into extending him for a big pricetag when few seem to be completely sold on the guy, the Raps pick up another first rounder in a loaded draft.

Throw JV/Ross/Acy out there as much as possible and get the lumps out of the way. We've also maintained two high character guys in Johnson & Fields who should be able to provide some perspective throughout all the losing. We also suck, which is the whole point.

Next summer we go into the draft with our own pick (good chance to be top 5 with this roster), the Bucks pick (let's say it's in the 10-18 range), and over $40 million dollars of cap room. Stink the place out for one more season and add another top prospect in 2015 and all of a sudden we have a very good young core with a glut of cap space.

Even the most steadfast supporters of this current Raptors team seem to admit that they're capped at a 6-8 seed for the next two seasons, and that's assuming a bunch of things go their way. The playoffs are far from a guarantee next season and yet the Raptors have no first round pick, are pushed to the luxury tax, and have very little in terms of moveable assets to upgrade the team via trade. Simply put, they are constructed as a "win now" team... minus the winning part.

Rather than waiting two seasons of average results to elapse, and then beginning a rebuild, I would fully support tearing this thing down immediately if I thought a capable basketball mind was behind the process. The benefits of doing it now instead of waiting would be: you get to take advantage of a couple of great drafts in 2014/15, and you don't waste any of the prime or near-prime of JV in a couple years time.

Here's my plan. Let's go tanking!

Raptors trade Andrea Bargnani and the Sacramento Kings 2014 2nd round pick to the Charlotte Bobcats for Ben Gordon.
Both players are stealing money at this point, but the Bobcats pick up a draft pick that is likely to be in the 30's for taking on another year of bad contract. From their perspective, they rid themselves of the Gordon headache and don't really lose anything basketball wise since they're actively trying to suck anyway.

Raptors trade Rudy Gay & Linus Kleiza to the Los Angeles Lakers for Pau Gasol, who is immediately waived by the Raptors
Gasol would have helped the Raptors win games next season, and we don't want that. We have however carved out a $20 million dollar chunk of cap space for the summer of 2014 with this move though. The Lakers get pretty good value back for Pau as Gay can perform a poor man's Kobe Bryant impression while he battles back. They can also sell the move to Dwight as proof that they are still aiming to compete right now.

Raptors trade DeRozan to Minnesota for Brandon Roy & Luke Ridnour
Raps get the corpse of Brandon Roy (and his expiring deal) and the definition of a stop gap point guard that is also expiring in the summer of 2014. T-Wolves get a starting shooting guard at the cost of cap flexibility exclusively.

Raptors trade Kyle Lowry to the Milwaukee Bucks for their 2014 1st round pick (top 7 protected)
Rather than losing Lowry in free agency next summer, or being strong-armed into extending him for a big pricetag when few seem to be completely sold on the guy, the Raps pick up another first rounder in a loaded draft.

Throw JV/Ross/Acy out there as much as possible and get the lumps out of the way. We've also maintained two high character guys in Johnson & Fields who should be able to provide some perspective throughout all the losing. We also suck, which is the whole point.

Next summer we go into the draft with our own pick (good chance to be top 5 with this roster), the Bucks pick (let's say it's in the 10-18 range), and over $40 million dollars of cap room. Stink the place out for one more season and add another top prospect in 2015 and all of a sudden we have a very good young core with a glut of cap space.

Hahah, I should have prefaced it by saying that I was just trying to have some fun.

However I gotta say that I think anyone who expects this team to magically transform into a contender in two seasons is delusional as well. You can check my track record here... I said Colangelo should be gone before his last extension, gave up on Bargnani and said it was foolish to build around him three years ago, said the Rudy Gay trade was a bad idea based out of BC's panic to save his job, I was even mocked and called names two weeks ago here when I said that there was no way Phil Jackson was coming to Toronto.

It seems like everyone seems to end up in the same place as me, just after the fact... Do I expect it to happen with the "Surge on with the current core vs. tear it down" debate? Yes, I do.

Next summer we go into the draft with our own pick (good chance to be top 5 with this roster), the Bucks pick (let's say it's in the 10-18 range), and $40 million dollars of cap room. Stink the place out for one more season and add another top prospect in 2015 and all of a sudden we have a very good young core with a glut of cap space.

The problem with this logic is that there's no guarantee that the new core will be any better than the current core. Plus, Toronto has never been effective with their cap space, mainly driven by their inability to lure top free agents. Blatant tanking and being extremely bad will only further hurt the team's reputation/perception among free agents and player agents.

I personally think there'a a significant 'gray area' to be explored between the 'black' (keep current team as is) and 'white' (rebuild from scratch, keeping only Valanciunas to build with) options that a thread like this presents. I don't know whether BC is the right guy to lead this sort of retooling, since a lot of it would entail treating his prized possessions (ie: Bargnani & DeRozan) as trade assets.

I think this sort of retooling could greatly improve the team immediately, in a way that is sustainable (good young core), without having to tank or mortgage the future by taking on horrendous contracts.

Even if the retooling doesn't achieve the intended results, the Raptors would still be in a good position after the 2013-2014 season:

- Lowry's $6.2M contract will be expired; he could be re-signed if he shows improvement/consistency in 2013-2014, could leave as free agent to clear cap space, or be used as asset for S&T deal

- Bargnani (or player traded for) will either be roughly $10M (depending on salary coming back) coming off the books, or an expiring contract to use as trade chip

- Gay will be $19.3M expiring contract, either to re-sign for better value deal or use as trade chip

- Fields will be $6.25M ($8.5M cash for new team, but only $6.25M cap hit) expiring contract, either to re-sign for better value deal or use as trade chip

- Johnson will be expired, with a $7M team option for 2014-2015, giving the team another expiring contract to potentially use as trade chip

- Gray and Lucas will be expired contracts to leave as free agents, clearing $4.2M salary off the books

- only Valanciunas ($4.7M), Ross ($3.6M) and Acy ($1.2M) will be signed beyond 2014-2015 and all of them are team options (players traded for, signed as free agents or extended to better value deals in the above scenario would be added to this list)

- Toronto will have all future 1st round picks, starting in loaded 2014 draft (would change if any future 1st round picks were included in trades mentioned in the above scenario)

Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

Waiting until the deadline is a mistake if we are really going to do pursue a “blow it up” strategy. We’re not going to win a title (like it says in your sig) with this group. Waiting for months and letting this draft go buy only delays the inevitable.

Matt52 wrote:

It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?

I don’t think you can address it with those assets. We’re dancing around the obvious here: We don’t have what it take to dig out of the “no mans land” that BC mired us in.

Matt52 wrote:

Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else.

The HC needs the final say. The lead assistant you’re referring to needs to be in place from day 1 or else it will destroy the credibility of the HC within the room. If we’re handing the offense completely over to somebody else, we need to fire the coach. Another restart at HC lends itself more to a “blow it up” strategy than a “tinkering” strategy.

Matt52 wrote:

22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league.... It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defence.

Those jumpers are the result of him being flexible to the strengths of the team. Long jumpers are a major part of both Demar and Rudy’s game. That was the problem with the acquisition. I actually think that Demar’s long jumper is encouraging, because its a really nice stroke and he’s got potential to extend that range into 3 pt territory. Getting him confident with the outside shot is a positive, imo. I think Casey’s shown more willingness to adapt than he gets credit for (finally phasing Bargs out, working with Kyle even though he clearly preferred Jose, letting Rudy shoot from distance because the analytics guys say it’s a good strategy even though it doesn’t fit Casey’s approach, letting Val work through his mistakes because he brings more to the table than he was taking off, sitting down the useless Landry Fields even though the front office invested heavily in him, sliding Rudy or AA down to the 4 and going small).

Matt52 wrote:

The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.

That’s not only unrealistic, it’s next to impossible.

Guys overachieving? We’ve been hoping for that year after year. And even when they do, other guys underachieve and we wind up still stuck in no-mans-land.

Major coup in a trade? I’m sure every single team is hoping for this. Is there anything to suggest this is the slightest bit lucky? NBA teams aren’t going to hand assets to us. Even teams with poor decision making processes (Kings, Nets) aren’t going to hand us something useful just because. Not to get too far off topic, but we all know how this strategy worked out for the Jays. “Major coup in a trade” is off the table.

Bargains on minimum contracts? The way to make this happen is to nail a second round pick (or very late first). Not only has that never happened for this organization, we don’t even have a second round pick to use. This option is off the table as well.

Somebody else mentioned that we need to find a “diamond in the rough.” Well, thats kinda what AA was if you look at his paycheque vs contribution. Finding another AA, AP or Garbo is not the ticket to a contender (again, like it says in your sig).

Matt52 wrote:

- DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
- Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
- Lowry returns to Houston form,
- JV is on the track to all star status,
- Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
- Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
- veteran backup PG obtained,
- Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
- Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.

This sounds GREAT. But every team in every sport can do this with their roster. History and logic tell us that our team is not going to be it’s best case scenario. To borrow a quote from the immortal Denny Green, we are who we thought we were.

Matt52 wrote:

- Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF

We could use one of these assets to ditch Bargs’ contract, but to expect a valuable piece back too? That’s unrealistic. We could trade DD or Ross straight up for a nice piece. Throwing Bargs in eliminates the potential to land a real contributor.

Matt52 wrote:

- Use MLE to get a backup PG

Definitely plausible; not getting us beyond the 7-8 range, best case scenario.

Matt52 wrote:

- Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute

Not happening without a second rounder

Matt52 wrote:

- Fields getting his shot back
- Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.

Not impossible and would be very nice to see. But these kinda fall into the “we are who we thought we were” category.
Similar to everyone else, I too liked your post. But I don’t think you can legitimately believe that we’re likely to make a contender out of the current core. If you, me, Lieweke, whomever are truly focused on brining the Raps to the finals, the blow it up option is the most realistic path to get there.