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Listen to the news today and you would think that economic growth was the only answer to all our problems.

Today´s society and governments have to cope with five major ecological and social crises:

Economic crisis

Global financial crisis

Unemployment crisis

Food crisis

Global ecological crises

Each of them is a warning sign, that something is really going wrong.

Facing these crises, Jorgen Randers, a member of the Club of Rome, published yesterday (09.05.2012) the report “2052 – A Global Forecast For The Next Forty Years”. With this report he continues the tradition of the Club of Rome writing every few years a study about the future development of the world.

The first report “The Limits to Growth”, of which Jorgen Randers was a co-author, shocked the population in 1972 because of questioning growth, which was until then widely considered as unlimited and the solution for most of the problems of humanity.

The reports and overall the first one, are highly alarming, because until now, the forecasts, made in 1972 by the Club of Rome, became true. Accordingly, if the development goes on as predicted, there will be finally a population decline in 2030 and consequently an economic collapse.

Using the data from the last decades and researches and also including contributions from more than 30 thinkers in the field, Jorgen Randers concludes that:

While the process of adapting humanity to the planet’s limitations has started, the human response could be too slow.

The current dominant global economies, particularly the United States, will stagnate. Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies will progress.

But there will still be 3 billion poor in 2052.

China will be a success story, because of its ability to act.

Global population will peak in 2042, because of falling fertility in urban areas

Global GDP will grow much slower than expected, because of slower productivity growth in mature economies.

CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow and cause +2°C in 2052; temperatures will reach +2.8°C in 2080, which may well trigger self-reinforcing climate change.

Furthermore, the report underlines that the main reason for the future problems is the extremely short-term predominant political and economic model, not governing with a long-term view, but concentrating on temporal growth rates and economic success. So if the business goes on as usual, the scenario presented by the Club of Rome in 1972 and the latest report of Jorgen Randers will probably become reality.

However, there is still hope. A broad ecological movement and a change in people´s mentality is advancing uniting people with a vision for a better world, one where humanity lives in peace with nature and itself, a world which is sustainable, more secure and stable than the one we are living in today.

5 Responses to “The future of our world…”

First of all: I really love the wordpress page of you and your group members. Especially the design and the title “hitthenailonthetop” are really innovative and attractive!

Talking about your blog post I have to admit that you have chosen a quite exciting topic! “The future of our world” actually should arouse everyone´s interest. To my mind, this topic is adequate also for a business and IT blog because -as you already said- these categories are also changing in the future as well. For us, as business students, it is important to know how the economy will change in 10, 20 and 50 years because we will witness it actively. So for me, I´m quite worried about our future daily life after I read your blog post.

Some days ago, I also heard something about the “Club of Rome”. Therefore, I´m a already informed reader about this stuff; but I have to say that you impart your knowledge abut this very well! And you even mentioned things I didn´t know yet: for example, I was not informed about the fact that the population growth rate will decrease because of the declining fertility rate in urban regions. How alarming!
Can you imagine why this will happen?
And do you really think that there is still hope for us? I mean, theoretically there is. But do you believe that our children and grandchildren will behave different and more environmentally friendly? I´m somehow concerned that they even will have no chance anymore to correct the mistakes of our generation 😦

Hey Sabrina!
Great post! I like the heading you have chosen a lot, so I decided to read further. You didn’t disappoint me 😉 It is great how you give a little overview of the major ecological and social crises in the beginning.
The facts you are presenting are very scary. Since the forecasts that were made by the Club of Rome actually became true. The graphic you use is very striking. We see that the global pollution will more than double until 2030. Moreover, the trends predicted by the 1972 Study are very close to what actually happened. However, I think that the awareness is increasing. In Germany, we have already made a lot of effort to protect our environment. Germany has closed eights reactors following the nuclear catastrophe of Fukushima in March 2011 and the remaining nine are scheduled to be closed by 2022. By the end of 2011, we have reduced our CO2 emissions by more than 23 percent compared to 1990, overshooting the Kyoto target.
So, we see how it all develops. However I think we should be too pessimistic!

Hey,
I have just read your blog about the Club of Rome. Actually I have to admit that I have not heard anything about it before, but when I read about it in your article I started to inform me a little bit about it. And the thought that forecasts they made really became true.
I think the “organisation” has a great objective with their thoughts about the future and sustainability. I think people (and I also consider me among those) should be more informed about organisations with such initiatives and goals. It is good that there are also people who do not just think about their personal monetary profits but also about the ecological benefits of the environment and keeping its beauty. I found it quite interesting when I found out that there are also schools of the club of Rome which have a elaborated offer of subjects also permitting the thoughts of the club of Rome. I think this is a good aspect to arise the consciousness of future generations. All in all, I like your post!

Hey! Thanks for your comments!
So first of all, the Club of Rome doesn´t intend to make us fear the future or to communicate us that our situtation is desperate.
The goal of these studies is to rise the awareness of people, because through a change in consumption and behavior we are capable to achieve an improvement and influence our future.
I hope, that the next generations will grow up with an other attitude to consumption and a higher consciousness concerning the environment, because this is the sole solution to evoid even bigger damages of the nature, catastrophies and greater crises in economy.
So I am happy, that I could increase your awareness in this topic and that you were interested in my post.
I think that I will go on researching on the topic of Club of Rome,
so I invite you to check out my next blog posts!
Greetings