CIA: Terrorists with trucks more probable than missiles

Posted: Tuesday, March 12, 2002

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) - The biggest U.S. risk from nuclear, biological or chemical weapons is from terrorists more likely to use a truck than a missile, a CIA official says. The missile threat, though, is greater than ever.

"The probability that a missile with a weapon of mass destruction will be used against U.S. forces or interests is higher today than during most of the Cold War, and it will continue to grow as the capabilities of potential adversaries mature," Robert D. Walpole told a Senate Governmental Affairs Committee panel on Monday.

But there is an even greater threat that such a weapon will be delivered without benefit of a missile "because nonmissile delivery means are less costly, easier to acquire, more reliable and accurate," he said.

Such weapons also "can be used without attribution," he said, referring to the fact that a missile can be traced back to the country that launched it.

"The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 have demonstrated that our enemies can strike American soil directly without having to put the time and money into a ballistic missile with a return address," said Sen. Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii, chairman of the committee's international security and proliferation panel.

The hearing came on the six-month anniversary of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. As part of the missile threat assessment, the intelligence agencies boosted their estimate of the threat from Iran, finding it poses the same level of threat as North Korea during the next 15 years, Walpole said.

"The United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly Iraq - barring significant changes in their political orientations," said the national intelligence officer for strategic and nuclear programs. Foreign countries build shorter-range weapons intending to use them, while they develop intercontinental missiles for reasons of prestige and to deter attacks, Walpole said.

Asked by Akaka about foreign attempts to foil a U.S. missile defense system, Walpole said, "A simple way to do that is to deploy more missiles" than any such system can handle.

Russia and China are the foreign countries with the most missiles.

However, Russia's arsenal is expected to decline to fewer than 2,000 warheads by 2015 - even without any arms control efforts - unless Moscow significantly increases funding for them, he said.

Among other countries, Walpole said:

-China is expected to boost its ballistic missile arsenal, fearing its existing weapons could be easily wiped out. It has only 20 silo-based ICBMs that can reach the United States, and the intelligence community expects China to convert to a mobile force more likely to survive an attack.

-North Korea, with hundreds of short-range Scuds as well as No Dong missiles that can fly 800 miles, is developing a longer-range Taepo Dong-2 missile despite its agreement to cease flight testing until 2003.

A two-stage Taepo Dong-2 could carry a significant payload to Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the continental United States. With a third stage, it could reach all of North America. North Korea is thought to have produced two nuclear weapons, and it has chemical and biological weapons programs.

-Iran has several hundred short-range missiles and some medium-range missiles, and it is firmly committed to missile development. Assistance from Russia, China and North Korea is "critical," but Iran alone could develop an ICBM. An ICBM test launch is unlikely for the next few years.

-Iraq "probably retains a small, covert force of Scud-variant missiles with conventional, chemical and biological warheads," and wants a long-range missile. U.N. resolutions limit it to missiles with a range of under 100 miles. If the restraints were weakened, Iraq might resume production of missiles with ranges of 400-560 miles.