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Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Post deadline day:

GRADE A

1. Billy Hamilton SS/CF AA – The fact that Walt refused to include him in any blockbuster deals yesterday says it all- he is the future.

GRADE B

2. Robert Stephenson RHP A – Could work his way into Grade A territory (Top 25 Prospect) if he can finish out the year in Dayton with more outings like his debut.
3. Daniel Corcino RHP AA – Little Johnny Cueto should change his name to Daniel Cuetiño.
4. Tony Cingrani LHP AA – His last two outings haven’t been as dominant. Is the lack of offspeed stuff catching up to him?

GRADE C

5. Jesse Winker OF R – Best bat in the system. Would love to see him finish the year in Dayton.
6. Kyle Lotzkar RHP AA – Some may say this is too high given his lack of command. However the stuff is still sweet.
7. DiDi Gregorius SS AAA – I’ve liked him more in the past two weeks than ever before. If he can continue this pace the rest of the year, I’ll be a believer.
8. Henry Rodriguez 3B AAA – All he does is hit (and from both sides of the plate). He should get a long look in ST, at least as a utility guy if not a 3B.
9. Yorman Rodriguez OF A – The plate discipline is still concerning, but at least he’s started to hit. Still only 19.
10. Donald Lutz OF AA – He has started to hit in Pensacola, but will need to continue to mash as he is limited defensively.
11. David Vidal 3B AA – Blocked by Frazier and H-Rod, Vidal will have to mash in order to work his way to Cincy. Could wind up as trade bait.
12. Tucker Barnhart C AA – Still profiles well as a backup C despite his offensive struggles in Pensacola.
13. Jeff Gelalich OF R – Would like to see the sandwich pick hit more in Billings given his age, pedigree, and experience in the Pac 12.
14. Ryan LaMarre OF AA – Profiles well as a 4th OF. Should get to Louisville soon.
15. Ismael Guillon LHP R – Has looked great recently in Billings, may be time to see what he can do in Dayton.

ON THE RADAR (HONORABLE MENTION)

Kyle Waldrop OF A – A solid all-around OF in Dayton.Seth Mejias-Brean 3B R – Has mashed in Billings since being drafted in the 8th round. Not sure what else he needs to do to get to Dayton.Bryson Smith OF AA – While his tools and projection are fringy, he has done nothing but hit every step along the way.Ryan Wright 2B A – A young Chris Valaika, hopefully he doesn’t hit the same ceiling.Chad Rogers RHP A+ - Likely a future bullpen arm, he is one of the few interesting players in Bakersfield.

KEEP AN EYE ON (TOO EARLY TO TELL- AZL GUYS)

Nick Travieso RHP – This year’s first round pick would probably slot in the 5-7 range on the above list if/when he’s eligible.Tanner Rahier 3B – Has struggled early in Arizona, but he has a very high ceiling.Pedro Diaz RHP – The most interesting international player in Arizona.Amir Garrett LHP – Still a very long term project, he has a very intriguing arm (and ceiling).

PROMOTIONS ON THE HORIZON

Ryan LaMarre to AAA
Seth Mejias-Brean to A
Jesse Winker to A
Ismael Guillon to A

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Thanks Benihana, always enjoy your rankings. I realize i'm not as versed as you and others on prospects, but I can't see Amir Garrett ever making an impact with the Reds, or in the Minors, he's just to raw and doesn't focus on Baseball enough and we all know if he ever gets a chance to play in the NBA it would be a no brainer for him, in fact I think his chances are better to be a NBA player than a MLB player, just my opinion.

As far as keep an eye on I would still list Gabriel Rosa and if you list Waldrop (I agree) I would also list Silva as on the Radar, he can take a walk and has speed and can play D, and is still young. Maybe list James Allen and Zac Vincej in there as well, although I know Zac has not played much. Anyway, just my opinion, thanks for the rankings.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Originally Posted by thorn

Thanks Benihana, always enjoy your rankings. I realize i'm not as versed as you and others on prospects, but I can't see Amir Garrett ever making an impact with the Reds, or in the Minors, he's just to raw and doesn't focus on Baseball enough and we all know if he ever gets a chance to play in the NBA it would be a no brainer for him, in fact I think his chances are better to be a NBA player than a MLB player, just my opinion.

As far as keep an eye on I would still list Gabriel Rosa and if you list Waldrop (I agree) I would also list Silva as on the Radar, he can take a walk and has speed and can play D, and is still young. Maybe list James Allen and Zac Vincej in there as well, although I know Zac has not played much. Anyway, just my opinion, thanks for the rankings.

Thanks for the input and the feedback.

Garrett is a very long term project with very high volatility. I agree that there is at least a 50/50 chance he never gets beyond AA. But there is also maybe a 10% chance he could become a dominant pitcher given his frame and his arm. I consider him almost like a lottery ticket.

Rosa is a player who has appeared on my "Keep An Eye On" lists almost since he was drafted in the second round of last year's draft. But now in Billings, where he no longer qualifies for that list but is eligible for the rankings and honorable mention, he has been a big disappointment. It is still very early and he is very young with plenty of time to turn things around. But he has gotten enough AB that a sub-.500 OPS with poor plate discipline without super premium defense is not a guy worthy (at this point) of a top 20 prospect ranking in the organization IMO.

Vincej got consideration and could appear on the list by the end of the year, especially if he continues to hit as he has in Billings. Silva strikes me as a slightly worse Waldrop with better defense.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

I love the fact that Walt did not include Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino, Stephenson, Gregorius and Henry Rodriguez in any deals, I am extremely high on all of these players. I wish D Joseph didn't get shipped off, but oh well. Actually if BP or Valdez gets put on the DL, I would call up HRod and put him at 2B

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

I tell you, I don't think I can express how excited I am about Jesse Winker. The kid just screams, 'hitter.' For him to have that kind of plate discipline and stroke at this point is encouraging.

What's his futures power grade supposed to be? Anyone know?

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Garrett was a big time basketball recruit, but he hasn't ever been viewed as much of an NBA prospect. Obviously things can change, but his size doesn't exactly work well with the NBA for what he can do.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

I tell you, I don't think I can express how excited I am about Jesse Winker. The kid just screams, 'hitter.' For him to have that kind of plate discipline and stroke at this point is encouraging.

What's his futures power grade supposed to be? Anyone know?

Can't say that I have seen him play much, but right now he doesn't seem to be putting that much power out. Still young though with a lot of upside. The way he's going right now he could be our long-term answer at left field when Ludwick calls it quits...maybe.

Of course these guys are all still young his current production at such a young age shows a lot of promise.

Also I think I like Gregorius' upside more than Cozart's -- I'm not real sure. Cozart has been great defensively which is good, but everyone knows that Didi is a defensive machine. Their batting is what I'm wondering about. Neither has great walk or strikeout rates, but Didi seems to make better contact and Cozart has, so far, shown more pop. I think Cozart can be a 15+/15+ guy that bats .260 and OBPs at .300 - .315 which is actually pretty useful for a GG worthy shortstop. However if Didi's recent power surge is for real and it projects to continue I think he may be better for SS.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Originally Posted by Jamz

Can't say that I have seen him play much, but right now he doesn't seem to be putting that much power out. Still young though with a lot of upside. The way he's going right now he could be our long-term answer at left field when Ludwick calls it quits...maybe.

Of course these guys are all still young his current production at such a young age shows a lot of promise.

Also I think I like Gregorius' upside more than Cozart's -- I'm not real sure. Cozart has been great defensively which is good, but everyone knows that Didi is a defensive machine. Their batting is what I'm wondering about. Neither has great walk or strikeout rates, but Didi seems to make better contact and Cozart has, so far, shown more pop. I think Cozart can be a 15+/15+ guy that bats .260 and OBPs at .300 - .315 which is actually pretty useful for a GG worthy shortstop. However if Didi's recent power surge is for real and it projects to continue I think he may be better for SS.

"However if Didi's recent power surge is for real and it projects to continue I think he may be better for SS"..... With only one homerun in Pensacola, it also could mean that AAA pitching is easier to hit then AA.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Originally Posted by Jamz

Can't say that I have seen him play much, but right now he doesn't seem to be putting that much power out. Still young though with a lot of upside. The way he's going right now he could be our long-term answer at left field when Ludwick calls it quits...maybe.

Of course these guys are all still young his current production at such a young age shows a lot of promise.

Agreed. Fortunately, players with a nice stroke, sometimes the power develops with maturity. So if there's one element of a young hitter's game I don't mind missing at 19, it's the power; especially if they're a line-driver hitter.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

I'm a bit surprised to see no mention of Neftali Soto. Sure, he's struggled this year. But he's still young and the walk rate is up. A little BABIP luck and he's back on the radar. Obviously he doesn't have a future here with Votto around, but still.

I'd like to see Winker against some stiffer competition. A singles hitter with a .434 BABIP scares me a bit. I LOVE the plate discipline, but that BABIP won't hold up forever.

Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-04-2012 at 03:56 AM.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

I'd like to see Winker against some stiffer competition. A singles hitter with a .434 BABIP scares me a bit. I LOVE the plate discipline, but that BABIP won't hold up forever.

Every scouting report says Winker has plenty of power on the way. Most high school picks are scuffling in the Gulf Coast and Arizona League right now, so I'm just giddy the kid is not only holding his own, but sporting a .480 OBP in a tough league.

Re: Reds Top Prospects August 2012 Edition

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm a bit surprised to see no mention of Neftali Soto. Sure, he's struggled this year. But he's still young and the walk rate is up. A little BABIP luck and he's back on the radar. Obviously he doesn't have a future here with Votto around, but still.

I'd like to see Winker against some stiffer competition. A singles hitter with a .434 BABIP scares me a bit. I LOVE the plate discipline, but that BABIP won't hold up forever.

Strikeouts are down too, just has not led to much production. Sluging is down big time though and even with some BABIP luck it is scary to see the power drop off like that. He is still a very intriguing prospect/trade bait but does not have a ton of value until he starts producing again.

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