Often Irreverent, Mostly Rational Blog for Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays. One Day, We'll Be Perfect.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

You have to make a choice

I know, I know.... I drop at least one of these posts every year. I'm running the risk of getting all shticky in here. But, y'know, fuck it.... if I'm going to be repetitive, this seems like the point in the season to do it. So here we go....

I'm of the opinion - the opinion - that if you're a fan of a team (let's say, for example, the Toronto Blue Jays), then you're a fan of a team Win or Lose. Win or fucking Lose.

Now, I'm not here to give anybody shit. I'm not your dad. But whoever said this would be easy? You know what's easy? Being a fan of, say, today's Boston Red Sox. They are built to win now. They have the financial resources to build a winner and spend the cash to fill the holes as Theo sees fit. Ownership has set that precedent; need an arm? Go get one. Short a power bat to fill the 6 hole? Who's available (statement not question).

So this is where the cynical fucks tell me to look at Rogers' balance sheet. Remind me of the resources that should be available then point to the stopgap options and roster fillers filling the major league bench.

And this may surprise you, but I'll tell you that you're right.

I'll also tell you to fucking get over it, because it is what it is and no amount of twitter bitching or otherwise is going to change any spending habits.

Me? I take comfort in seeing that The Plan put forward has been unwavering - build internally, throw big money at the draft (all indications are, 2011's should cost.... a lot), develop a homegrown roster of stars, and strike at free agency when the time is right.

Now is pretty clearly not yet that time. There have been setbacks - big ones with Travis Snider, Brett Cecil, and Kyle Drabek. Not all prospects will develop as hoped - whatever happened to the Adeiny Hechavarria hype machine? But that's what happens when you shoot for "ceiling" (as a scout might say). They aren't always going to hit.

But seems to me the squawking was never louder than during the Ricciardi era where safe reliable talent and big money free agent signings where the method to roster construction.

So take your pick. I know which route I prefer.

Back to the statement up top - it's easy to be a fan of today's Boston Red Sox. But it will be entirely more satisfying to be a fan of tomorrow's Toronto Blue Jays.

69 comments:

Yes, it's easy to be a Boston Red Sox fan NOW, but it sure wasn't at the beginning of the season. Last year wasn't all fun either as half of the Red Sox went down with injuries. (I still loved the team and all its "band-aid" players -- Nava, McDonald, Lowrie, Cash, etc., even though some are back in AAA for good.) Still, I get your point. And you're right -- it will be satisfying when the Blue Jays eventually win and win big.

Jeff, I'm curious as to your methodology for giving AA a C- grade. He got Escobar for nothing, offloaded Vernon Wells' salary, and has been signing low-cost extensions with our core players (Bautista, Lind, etc). Some misses on the relief pitching side, but I think we're in great hands with him as GM.

God, Toronto sports fans are such pushovers. A real city would be pissed with all these loser teams, but golly gee willickers we're just thrilled to have a GM that says, by gosh, that we'll be good in 2015.

Dumping Wells' salary only does the team good if Rogers re-invests the money in the team. Sure, they used some for Bautista, but there was enough left over to pay for some form of veteran pitcher to help out the youngsters.

Who's to say AA won't trade Bautista for some more precious prospects at the trade deadline?

I'm not usually one to criticize commenters, but Paul.... come the fuck on, man. I know you're being facetious (hoping?), because the suggestion that AA might be inclined to listen to prospect offers for Bautista is just a little bit ridiculous.

Who's to say Rogers isn't investing the Wells money in the team? Locking up JoBau + spending big in the draft (yes, remains to be seen....) is a pretty solid start, if you ask me.

Ahhh the mythical contention date. Every year it keeps getting pushed up and all the hardcores are lining up to wash the GM's balls. Farrel hadn't even filled out a lineup card yet and this blog was ready to put him in the Hall of Fame. Now we are getting shit for actually giving a fuck about the embarrassment that was last weekend when all the proprietors of this blog were tweeting about the carnival sideshow that was Mcoy pitching. That was more embarrassing than the beating at the hands of the RedSox.

You want to take the elitist high road TAO and tell people to stop bitching but it's okay for Drabek to act like a petulant fucking child without a word of admonishment from the fanboys. Give me a break.

You want to take the elitist high road TAO and tell people to stop bitching but it's okay for Drabek to act like a petulant fucking child without a word of admonishment from the fanboys. Give me a break.

Let's ignore that Kyle Drabek is still a kid himself for a second, but where has any of these so-called "fanboys" on this site suggest to implicitly follow this team with nary a complaint or justified criticism?

Up to this point of the season, I've read countless number of snide articles and remarks about "The John Farrell Experience" being too reactionary and confusing. Yet, somehow, pre-season positive vibes about Farrell suggests that questioning him is forever impossible?

That during the course of a 162 game season, since a faction of Blue Jays fans aren't flipping water coolers around spewing bile of liquid hate at animals who vaguely look like Paul Beeston due to a single weekend series, their views on this team are suddenly invalid and inaccurate?

A team with much more baseball money and baseball talent at their disposal destroyed a team with less baseball financial might and less current talent. Funny how that works.

That's why there's a difference between the measured response and the "draining all of Lake Ontario to douse the fire I set on High Park that spells 'Blue Jays LAYOFFS'" approach in the giving-a-fuckery spectrum.

Yeah because calling yourself Dave C. on a blog is really putting yourself out there huh Dave? Yeah, let's all leave our social insurance numbers, home addresses, telephone numbers etc. just so Dave C. doesn't have to deal with, wait for it, anonymity on the internet.

Rogers telling Jays fans that they'll spend the money when they get competitive is like me saying to my kids I'll stop at Walt Disney World if you see it from the 401. Eventually kids grow up and realize you've been bullshitting them for years.

@Ack. You have obviously never worked for a company that is controlled by bean counters. If Rogers determined that they could make more money by trading Bautista than keeping him, they would do it in a heartbeat. Not saying it's likely, but definitely a possibility.

If the Jays are 15 games out at the trade deadline and no one is watching on TV, anything is possible.

If following this team, cheering for this team, causes you so much grief and consternation and you wake up every day hating the Jays and it's ruining baseball for you and making life miserable..... just fucking stop watching and get off Twitter and tune out.

re: anon above, you're totally right, Jays fans are such pushovers. We should definitely be hard-nosed, passionate baseball fans like the ones that cheer for the Cubs or Mets. That'll really get ownership to spend money and bring in championships.

As stated in the article, there is ZERO chance of Rogers spending enough money to compete salary-wise with the big boys. Like it or not, complain all you want, it's just a fact.

Rogers owns the Bluejays, and every other entity in their empire for one reason and one reason only, to make money. That's not a bad thing. I have no problem with companies making money. We live in a free society and Rogers can make as much as they can.

So our only hope as a Jays fan is to wait for a time where a bunch of prospects peak at the major league level at the same time, but before they demand too much money, in which case Rogers peels them off the payroll for the next wave of prospects. Not much to hope for us as fans I'd say, and I have every right to complain about it.

You sound so high and mighty swearing at your readers and telling them they're not REAL fans if they don't drink the company Kool-aid. In reality, you just sound childish.

Right Paul, because as the contract extensions given to Bautista, Romero, Lind - and even the recent "unsuccesful" spending on Hill and Rios show, Rogers won't pony up the dollars to keep homegrown players in the fold.

And I guess being amongst the biggest spenders in the draft these last few years shows there's no commitment to spending to win either.

You talk about me being a fanboy and drinking the company kool-aid or whatever, and that's your prerogative. But when did anyone get the idea by looking at the opening day roster the Jays would be contenders this season?

Everyone was on board with the rebuild and acknowledged it would take, you know, more than one or two seasons to do properly.... until it actually does take more than one or two seasons, and people start losing it and stomping their feet about how they're sick of all the losing.

That's not childish? Or at the very least, maybe just a little short-sighted?

I'm sorry if you're offended. But I'm offended by everyone going off the rails when in reality, nothing should have changed with regards to expectations from opening day. And if you expected this club to see the post-season in 2011... well, I don't know what else to tell you.

I love that this is happening. How convenient that it's right after Boston left town.

All the cynics who can't wait to be the first off the bandwagon, calling out the fans for their naiveté...it's such an easy stance, and it's twice as dumb as people think.

Here's the point: Competing is fucking HARD. And you don't do it by filling your roster with a bunch of mediocre $5 million players. What the Jays have done and are doing is creating a critical mass of prospects that are either going to allow them to trade for legitimate stars at the end of deals or develop those prospects into contributors in their first 5 seasons.

Stomping our feet and demanding that Rogers go out and spend $140 million on the big league payroll is JUST FUCKING STUPID. BEYOND STUPID.

Sure, Rogers could have gone out and shelled out big dollars to fill up the bullpen with Joaquin Benoit or Rafael Soriano...but how's that gambit working out?

And you know why Boston is kicking ass and taking names? Because they are a smart team that has developed enough talent internally (Rat Faced Prick Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, Youk, Ellsbury, Lester, Bucholz, Papelbon) to field a great team and to trade for the pieces that they need to put themselves over the top (Rizzo and Casey Kelly for Adrian Gonzalez).

Yes, they have money, but they spend it pretty wisely...And that's the whole point of the plan.

Also: I think most of the smart Jays fans with whom I spoke before the season figured that this was a sub-.500 team this year, but a good team in the next few. To suddenly change direction because the team took an uncomfortable shit-kicking this weekend is reactionary.

And multibillion dollar integrated corporations don't get to be that way by panicking when faced by adversity.

Also Paul: Stating "It's a fact" doesn't actually make something a fact. It just reinforces your position in your own mind.

If the revenues are there (and TV numbers have been good, as has the gate), then the payroll numbers will be there. They won't spend on spec.

And do you understand how many years you actually get with young players before they can even start to demand too much money? Six years! Plenty of time to have two or three successive quality draft classes emerge into everyday players.

And if all this seems like too much for you to withstand, go cheer for the Cardinals, or some other mid-revenue team in a chump division. We don't need you.

Wow, go fuck ourselves, hey Tao? Yeah because the Jays have sooo many fans that snobby fucks like yourselves can simply just tell people to go away. Pretty embarassing when the Red Sox come to town and there's more of their fans in the stands at the RC than ours.

Also, just for the record fuckface, I've been following this team since 1977. Just because you write some blog doesn't give you any monopoly as a fan of this team. If people are sick of 18+ years of mediocrity, then that is what it is. But when you write a piece pointing out how irrational and stupid everyone is and then get called on it, don't stomp around like a little fucking child in complete bewilderment. And I know all your little trained seals are going to be calling me every name under the sun but so be it.

Here's what gets me: If we genuinely believe that the team will never get better, what's the point in being a fan? If you're a fan of the sport, surely you can find a team that's interested in competing.

For me, the perspective of people like the Ack makes more sense: this team was meant as a long term venture, and we knew that- or should have known that- coming into this season. I watch the games, I cheer for the team to do well, but I watch it with the understanding that yes, it would be a building year.

I certainly think some cynicism is warranted, given Rogers' handling of the team over the years. But I can't see how you can argue that there haven't been some good signs. Low costs extensions for the core, and a lot of money spent in the draft.

The Jays' record hasn't been good with big money free agents. Do we really want to repeat Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan, and AJ Burnett? I don't. This homegrown focus seems to be sound so far. That doesn't mean it'll happen right away, or that it won't be difficult.

If Rogers is a bean counter, they can see the value in AA's reasonable extensions relative to the market for a lot of those players he signed. Hopefully Toronto can support the Jays if/when they become a winner.

I've been surprised by the amount of vitriol I've seen from Jays fans, and I imagine that's the perspective here. There's not a lot of sense getting angry, on one side or another. But calling for rational thinking when the team is struggling is almost always a good idea.

Really classy guys. Very easy to swear at people through the safety of a web page. Try doing that face to face with someone and see what you get.

I for one never thought that the team would be even close to contending this year or next. But the Jays have been touting we're two years away for the better part of 19 years, and even though rationally they are still another two or three years away at best, it still gets frustrating, and everyone has a right to complain.

Solutions, I really don't see any. I'd like for the Jays to prove me wrong and actually field a proper contending team a few years from now, but history says that two years from now the jays will still be preaching that we're two years away. Short of stop watching and going, which would hit Rogers in the pocketbook indirectly, there's really no hope of doing much else but wait yet another "two more years".

Paul isn't exactly wrong to believe that Rogers doesn't have a real committment to winning. I mean, they've only had an above-average major league payroll one year out of their entire ownership run (2008). And this isn't some small market like Kansas City or Oakland here. Really, Rogers has been saying that the money's coming for years, pushng back contention year after year. Some, rather understandably, have run out of patience.

I have to say, though, that if they can sign most of their draft picks, that will be a good sign of things to come.

It's not a matter of siding with Rogers that gets me, it's blind optimism, year after year, without any accountability. Pointing to the failed free agent acquistions of the Riccardi era isn't fair either, because there was no clear direction at that time. Draft, sandwich picks, trade all you want, at some point to contend in this division, or any division for that matter, you are going to have to supplement the prospects, draft pickets etc with proven major league talent and Rogers talks a good game when addressing this but history suggests otherwise.

"Pointing to the failed free agent acquistions of the Riccardi era isn't fair either, because there was no clear direction at that time."

And then...

"... you are going to have to supplement the prospects, draft pickets etc with proven major league talent and Rogers talks a good game when addressing this but history suggests otherwise."

If history suggested that Rogers was unwilling to spend on free agents (i.e. "talks a good game"), then we wouldn't have the failed free agent acquisitions of the Ricciardi period to point to.

It seems to me that people in the organization, whether it's Rogers or people on the baseball side, have learned that neglecting to stock up, and STAY stocked up, on high-upside draft picks and prospects is a failed strategy and are changing it.

Instead of putting the cart before the horse by signing big money free agents with no solid core in place, they look to be turning the order around.

I don't see why a fanbase should somehow be more discouraged by that. I'd be discouraged if they were doing the same things they've always done, and expecting better results.

Looking back at the last decade, the Jays' highest team salary was just under $100 million, putting them 12th highest that year.

Currently, even with the long term deals of local talent, they are at $62.5 million, which ranks them 23rd.

I personally don't see this as an either or proposal. Signing a couple of mid-range starting pitchers as free agents may not improve your win-loss record, but would give guys like Morrow and Drabek the time in the minors to learn how to pitch more effectively, if that's what the team deemed necessary. The way the Jays are set up now, there are very few other options to replace Morrow and/or Drabek if they wanted to give them time to mature down on the farm.

Doesn't that kind of fly in the face of everyone's preferred philosophy though, Paul? Throwing dollars at mediocre mid-range arms?

It seems everyone is in one of two camps....go with young players or spend BIG on all-star calibre players.

Paying free agent dollars to lure the Kyle Lohses and Carl Pavanos of the baseball world means you're still not winning & remain in the dreaded "holding pattern" mode... and that would boil more blood than the comments above.

I guess I have trouble understanding why a team would want to spend extra money on mid-range starting pitchers if it's not something they expect will improve their win-loss record. Don't forget that mid-range starters, the #3 or #4 types, aren't exactly growing on trees, and teams that DO expect to contend get a chance to sign them too.

Here's an example: Probably the fourth-best starter in Milwaukee is Randy Wolf (arguably behind Gallardo, Marcum, Greinke). To get him, they had to shell out 3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus a 2013 club option, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. $10 million a year for a #4 starter, on a team that seriously expects to contend. Now, granted, Wolf would be closer to a #2 guy in Toronto, but if the team is not expecting to contend with the rest of the pieces they have, I just don't understand why the Blue Jays would want to commit almost $30 million over three years to have him. He'll be 36 by the time the contract is up, and Toronto probably would have had to spend more to get him there anyway.

I suppose a team could go even cheaper and sign a guy like Brad Penny to be a 3 or 4-type starter, but even he's costing the Tigers $3 million this year.

In either case, those guys cost real money, which is likely going to come at the expense of other priorities (like the draft).

Meanwhile, Morrow and Drabek make less than $3 million between them. They're not dominating, but you have to hope from a player-development perspective that they're figuring out how to get big-league hitters out.

The question is, is it worth another $10 million to your organization to have middle-of-the-pack place-filler starters on the big league club, while Morrow and/or Drabek pitch in the minors? And with no expectation that the extra $10 million will result in an appreciable increase in wins?

Or I guess you could go out and sign Kevin Millwood to eat those innings for you. Me, I'd rather watch Kyle Drabek walk a few guys than be subjected to that.

Getting the mid range pitchers would only be a good option if in fact the Jays management believed that the best option would be for a starter or two mature in the minors rather than on the major league team.

Right now the jays kind of have all their eggs in one basket. They have no choice but to keep Morrow and Drabek in the majors, becuase they have nothing better. What you don't want is to screw up these two great arms by throwing them to the wolves too early. If that's what they really think is best for them, then who am I to say differently, but it would be nice to have that optioon.

For the record, I would LOVE Prince Fielder at that price. And don't call me a fucking Leaves fan for it--I hate hockey.

Fielder at first forming a monstrous 3-4 combo and Lind back to DH where he belongs. I also think we should go aggressively after Yu Darvish, although the record of Japanese pitchers is poor overall, he is half Turkish, a bigger dude, and more likely to be durable when he comes to the majors (which is why the Yankees are going to be all over him.)

I get development. I want Lawrie, Cecil etc. up as soon as possible. Why I don't understand is why, if we all knew we'd be shit in 2011 (and we damn well are horrible), why not play ALL the kids all the time?

And why not supplement this with a long-term contract for a young 1B just entering his prime?

Do you really think any of our prospects are going to be as good as Fielder? Hell no!

Rogers is a motherfucking BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY who has no problem squeezing every last penny out of poor and middle-class Canadians and yet we're not allowed to attack them and their bullshit spending policies as it pertains to the Jays? Fuck that corporate bullshit. They should spend, sell the team, or move them out of the city if we have to put up with another 5 years of crap to develop high school arms and pray we get lucky with Type B free agents.

I fully believe that if they wanted Morrow or Drabek in the minors, they would be there. There are plenty of other cheap options in the system to eat innings. It wouldn't be pretty, but again, it's not like it matters a great deal.

"There's been no discussion of sending Kyle to Triple-A or to suggest that what he’s dealing with, in his own maturity right now, is leading to that. So that needs to be squelched right now," Farrell said. Jun 12, 7:15 PM

Um yea, that's the ticket. :)

Let's hope Stewart is really ready for the big leagues, and just just the best of the worst options.

What's baffling me right now is how there are a bunch of commenters totally flipping their shit over one weekend against Boston. The first time the Jays have been swept all year. Doesn't matter if you lose 35-6 or 3-0 over three games, it's three losses. A big loss is still just a loss.

Three games, guys. THREE FUCKING GAMES. Let's have some perspective here. Grand scheme of things, this weekend isn't a whole lot.

Obviously our supposedly brilliant GM is freaking out too, because he sent down Drabek after LYING repeatedly about how he would stay up no matter what (through his dopey manager).

I can't wait to see what the corporate lackeys say about this one: "Drabek really was struggling, look at his xFIP and drTPOP." "AA is so smart and handsome, I can't wait to blow him again." "Stewart's secondary and thirdendary numbers are better than his ERA, I'm sure his terrible strike out rate will be mitigated by the geniuses we have running this team."

Man, we really know how to fuck with all our young players: watch out Lawrie, you're next--you better not have a bad week or struggle is some stat category that no one understands, or else you're going to AAA for a few more years.

(SNIDER, CECIL, LAWRIE, DRABEK, MORROW): fucked up development. What other team does this shit?

This is exactly the scenario I mentioned earlier today. Somehow I can't see bringing upo a guy with a 4.50 ERA in AA as a valid replacement. The Jays are just tapped out of options.

You can only "go with all prospects and wait a couple years" scenario if you have enough players to at least compete at the major league level, and if you don't, you may need to look elsewhere, bite the bullet and spend a few bucks. Switching Stewart for Drabek seems a little like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic to me.

Gee, no more swearing at me. Maybe I AM making at least a bit of sense. Backpeddal much?

Seriously, even if you want to go with waiting for the prospects to mature, you should really have them in a place where they will mature the best. Looking at our starting pitching in particular, can you honestly say some of these guys wouldn't be better off learning their trade in the minors?

The Jays choices as of now seem to be which prospect can we hurt the least by bringing them up. Not the best scenario for either the present or the future.

And to take it even one step further, the team really isn't doing too badly... 2 games under .500 in the toughest division in baseball is not terrible. If you are one of those who are complaining that "this team sucks", I really have to question what it was that you were expecting coming into this season. Seriously.

Who was I talking to? Look above and see who swore at me. I still think the Jays would be better off on their two year plan if they let some starting pitching learn in the minors, and today's movement of Drabek only solidifies my beliefs.

I think I made my case. You don't have to agree with my opinion on the Jays, but I have a right to have it.

Seems like it's my way or the highway and fuck you for thinking differently on here.