100 Helens agree: Wages of Wins contest entries for Round 2

Over 200 participants did get it wrong at times in the first round (we’ll have more on that at the end of the playoffs). So will cutting that number down to just over 100 participants make the results any better? In graphical form, here is how all of the entries for the second round of the Wages of Wins NBA Playoffs contest look.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat (#1) vs Chicago Bulls (#5)

Much like the first round, our participants overwhelmingly favour the Heat in their second round series against the Bulls; 99% think that Miami will win the series (one person picked the Bulls). Again, the only question seems to be the number of games it will take them. The most popular option was 5 games, which was selected by 68% of participants. After that, 4 games (23%) was the next most popular option. It seems our participants aren’t expecting the Bulls to put up much of a fight.

New York Knicks (#2) vs Indiana Pacers (#3)

According to our participants, this is the closest second-round series, barely edging out Thunder-Grizzlies. While 55% of participants think that the Knicks will win the series, the single most popular outcome was Pacers in 6 games (29%), followed by Knicks in 7 (28%), Knicks in 6 (23%), and Pacers in 7 (15%). So everyone seems to be expecting this series to take a while. With the Pacers winning game one in New York and Carmelo Anthony shooting like this in the playoffs, will the series last 6 games?

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (#1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (#5)

As previously mentioned, this second round series is the next hardest to call. In an upset, 56% of participants picked the Grizzlies to beat the Thunder. By far, the most popular outcome was Grizzlies in 6 (38%), followed by Thunder in 7 (22%), Grizzlies in 7 (16%), and Thunder in 6 (15%). If game one is any indication, the Thunder will certainly have their hands full. Even though he’s played well in the playoffs so far, will the Thunder be able to win this series with Derek Fisherin their top six?

San Antonio Spurs (#2) vs Golden State Warriors (#6)

Like the Heat’s second round series, the Spurs are the overwhelming favourites in their series against the Warriors. Only two out of 110 participants think that Golden State will win. Once again, the only question is how many games it will take the Spurs to win; 56% picked Spurs in 5, 20% picked Spurs in 4, and 17% picked Spurs in 6. So our participants think that this series will be a little closer than Heat-Bulls, but not by much. Maybe Stephen Curry can keep up his impressive shooting and “will” his team to another upset win? Probably not. Greg Popovich is no George Karl.

Reminder: once the second round is finished, we’ll be posting the cumulative leaders and let you make your picks for the Conference Finals, so keep checking back!

OKC-MEM is considered closer not only because of -Lee but because of -Westbrook. WP doesn’t particularly like him but a lot of other advanced stats do, and even ignoring that losing your starting point guard is going to be disruptive to your offense. As a result, compare the Vegas odds — OKC by 4 yesterday, SAS by 8 tonight.

yes, this is all about the statistics, we try to leave the heart out of the pics, its all about science gentlemen.
If you think about it from a numbers approach, you actually lose more by getting Dlee off the court than you do with OKC losing a loose cannon like westbrook. its addition by subtraction

“That’s a big reason why we (paid him all that money),” coach Frank Vogel said. “… He’s one of the best rim protectors in the game. He’s really grown and learned how to understand angles and getting no calls, playing without fouling and staying in the game. All the analytics say he’s the toughest guy in the league to score against at the rim.”

> If you think about it from a numbers approach, you actually lose more by getting Dlee off the court than
> you do with OKC losing a loose cannon like westbrook. its addition by subtraction

In terms of WP, the two are quite close.

As Golden State vs San Antonio goes into overtime, I can’t help but wonder where clock management is. The Warriors were up by 16 with 240 seconds to go – running out the shot clock on each possession means the spurs have to score 17 points in 10 possessions or fewer or start fouling. David Stern might fine them in the morning, but he’s unlikely to fine them the $1.5M plus that the win is worth.