Not Out of the Woods Just Yet

Yesterday we had a decline and the DOW was down about 469 points to 15979. I am 75% certain the lows are in for the year. We may have another pushdown during this volatile September. In 10 of the last 11 days the DOW has had triple digit moves up or down. At the beginning of the year I stated that I did not believe the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in 2015 and that I believed 2015 would be a very volatile year.

Today the DOW was up about 293 points. This backing and filling is something I believe the market needs to do. I don’t think we are out of the woods yet and that there could be one more pushdown to a higher low in the 15500-15800 range. That higher low should be the base for the move up into the 4th quarter towards the end of the year. The markets are volatile and it is not a time to be complacent. You have to know how to move your money in and out. Take gains when you can, go for singles and don’t try to hit homeruns all the time.

Inventories were high for crude oil, up 4.7 million barrels last week. Oil got hit and traded down to 43.71. I stated I liked the pattern in oil on the daily charts. I am looking for trades and would like to see a pullback to the 39-43 range where I would look to start buying oil stocks. I believe the bottom of 38.71 can be a short term bottom, long term I am bearish on oil. Even when oil closed up around 46 a lot of the oil stocks did not participate in the move up, another warning sign.

Gold went up to 1147 then dropped down to 1131-1132. Gold is not going anywhere, stuck in a range of 1070-1150, and I think it is dead money. The gold stocks are getting hammered including ABX (Barrick Gold) trading down to 6.50, a new low for the year. I would not want to be long any gold stocks. I don’t think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the September meeting which may give gold hope to maybe go up to 1180-1190. There may be an opportunity to buy some gold stocks for an oversold bounce but I don’t see gold going to 1400-1500-1600 anytime soon.