Thursday, January 24, 2008

Men's BB: Iowa's 2-5 Big Ten Record is Better Than It Looks

TWO WINS IS GOOD? Well, in the context I am about to present, it is.

A losing record is never a good thing, no matter how you spin it. However, Iowa is 2-5 in conference, which is exactly where I had them 7 deep into the conference schedule. Why is this a good thing? Clearly, almost anyone paying attention to NCAA basketball would come to the conclusion that the Iowa Hawkeyes were coming into the season as a team destined to finish towards the bottom of the Big Ten (personally, I saw them around the 7th spot). The reason Iowa's 2-5 Big Ten start isn't all that bad is because of the quality of opponents Iowa has faced through the first 7 games.

First, let's look at the Big Ten RPI Rankings (conference only):

Big Ten RPI

Team

1

Wisconsin

2

Indiana

3

Purdue

4

Michigan State

5

Ohio State

6

Minnesota

7

Penn State

8

Iowa

9

Illinois

10

Michigan

11

Northwestern

(RPI ranked as of today)

Second, let's calculate the SOS of each Big Ten team (conference only):

UW

IU

PU

MSU

OSU

MN

PSU

IA

IL

UM

NW

RPI of

10

8

10

6

9

4

11

2

5

1

7

Teams

8

10

4

3

11

11

9

1

7

3

5

Played

9

9

5

8

8

7

6

5

1

2

6

in the

7

6

8

5

3

2

1

4

2

11

10

Big Ten

11

7

9

6

4

4

2

3

10

9

1

So Far

10

8

7

9

3

10

3

8

(BT Only)

2

5

1

Total RPI

55

48

43

28

44

28

32

25

28

34

29

SOS

9.17

8

7.17

5.6

7.333

5.6

5.33

3.6

4

4.86

5.8

SOS Rank

11

10

8

5

9

5

4

1

2

3

7

Finally, let's list out the ranking:

Big Ten SOS

Team

1

Iowa

2

Illinois

3

Michigan

4

Penn St

5

Michigan St

5

Michigan

7

Northwestern

8

Purdue

9

Ohio St

10

Indiana

11

Wisconsin

While it's true you can't play yourself (hurting the Top teams' SOS), Wisconsin has yet to play anyone in the Top 6 of the Big Ten RPI (PSU was their toughest opponent). Indiana hasn't played anyone in the Top 5. While Iowa has played all Top 5 teams, including the #2 team twice. It also makes you wonder just how good Wisconsin and Indiana truly are, as well.

So there you have it... 2-5 isn't that bad in my book.

Iowa gets both Penn State (sans Claxton) and Northwestern twice and also gets Illinois at home. Folks, those are ABSOLUTELY winnable games for Iowa. And I am also not sold on Purdue, yet, perhaps Iowa can give them trouble on the road. Minnesota has played much better than I expected, but I think the Hawks can give them a test in the Barn.

What it comes down to is that although Iowa might only win 1 or 2 out of the next 4, they have a VERY favorable last 1/3 of the schedule. That gives me hope that Iowa could finish around the .500 mark in Big Ten play, something I thought would be impossible around the time of Jarryd Cole's injury.