On one hand, Frances isn't anywhere near as big as Floyd was and there might not be as much rain due to her as there was directly due to Floyd, which is a good thing if they have similar tracks.

On the other hand, we have TD7, probably Gaston, and possibly TD8 to swamp the NC/SC/GA area before the arrival of Frances (just like we had Dennis before Floyd) so a similar track would probably still produce monstrous flooding.

There is a well known poster on this Board who has a set destination and landfall strength for every system anywhere (do I have to be any more specific?). I am tempted to do the same thing, at least with a destination, as has already been pointed out the Savannah GA - Beaufort SC area is both way overdue and probably way too complacent. TD 7 blowing through here as a weak tropical storm might, in a way, be a good thing, as I believe the "strength" of even a weak or moderate tropical storm would open many people's eyes.

So, where is TD 7 going? I am leaning with the crowd which thinks it is going to meander a bit longer than the official forecast and gain a bit more strength. Landfall, just north of Charleston, SC?

>>> There is a well known poster on this Board who has a set destination and landfall strength for every system anywhere (do I have to be any more specific?).

Fortunately, the NHC's speculation is based upon a lot of experience and expertise. I do not think I buy into a NC/SC landfall. We shall see, by the end of the weekend we will start seeing a 5 day forecast emerge that where it will effect CONUS.

Quote:
On one hand, Frances isn't anywhere near as big as Floyd was and there might not be as much rain due to her as there was directly due to Floyd, which is a good thing if they have similar tracks.

On the other hand, we have TD7, probably Gaston, and possibly TD8 to swamp the NC/SC/GA area before the arrival of Frances (just like we had Dennis before Floyd) so a similar track would probably still produce monstrous flooding.

I remember well...it changed my vacation plans...Unlike Noah, I didn't have an Ark and many of my favorite destinations were very much under water. Well, I did say I hope Frances is a Floyd...at worst! Floods kill and damage as much as winds and hurricanes often do both at the same time. Lest we forget...

What I'm looking for right now as I peruse the models is what they are doing with the ridge, and how it is playing out long term, how strong, will it have any weaknesses to allow Frances to slip off to the north... GFS model (for what its worth) shows the ridge to be strong enough to move Frances toward the southern part of Florida and eventually into the GOM... ending up in SE Louisiana.... very similar to a Georges track..... hey its just a model... another data point to screw me up as I try to analzye this thing...

here is the link, it takes a while to download, 48 plots... its worth the wait if you live in S Fl or N GOM....

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND T.D. SEVEN...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL THE WAY
UP TO 300 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS...DUE TO THE WSW FLOW.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS.

Basically Frances is espected to take the path of least resistance, and should track around the outer edge of the high pressure ridge... IF it move back northward as discuss above, then Frances will be on the lower edge being steered off to the west or wnw or nw, depending on the position and strength of the ridge..

Exactly,,,, but.............
IF, IF, IF... uh did I say IF this model comes any where near to fruition, then you could very well have a double hit with a major storm... a real worse case scenario, and the KEYS and NO do show up near ground zero in this model run... of couse it will change over time....... all this really proves is the uncertainly of Frances track.... however, that being said... over the next couple of days, models start to cluster in a similar agreement, then I might starting worrying alittle... not yet though..

I wasn't so much worrying about the possibilities this model shows, but was exhibiting a sigh of relief at the hope that next Saturday, my birthday will not include Frances here in my neighborhood. But, as you say, it's only a model and most of the models I've played with in my 62 (almost) years of playing with them, all crash and burn Well, it's still fun playing...it's the real ones we have to worry about in the long run....

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That's not a great URL cause it would take it right up Mobile Bay

Let me rephrase it...it is a great link depicting one models view of the possible future. On the bright side, the model seems to indicate a weakening trend by the time it arrives in that area....Can you take the rain?

The GFS has stayed with this S/FL-Keys scenario for a few runs in a row, which makes you think it can't be completely bonkers. It has played to the left most of the time while the UKMet has played the right side. It's the UKMet that's coming toward the GFS, giving a reason to not quite make this a Carolina problem just yet. Five days ago I think some models thought this was going to be a fish, most havn't had a good read on the ridge to the north. We shall see...

Anybody want to let me know if they think Frances has lost some of that north movement this morning, or is the sun playing tricks with the visable sat pics?

Here is the 10 am weather discussion from Melborne. What are they hinting at?

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MAIN EFFECT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
A DEEP WESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA FOR STORMS. LATE IN THE WEEK...SOUTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE Frances AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL
REFRACT AROUND THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND MOVE INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.

-------------------- "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

Quote:
The GFS has stayed with this S/FL-Keys scenario for a few runs in a row, which makes you think it can't be completely bonkers.

Anybody want to let me know if they think Frances has lost some of that north movement this morning, or is the sun playing tricks with the visable sat pics?

Just looked at the WV loop...still NW movement so far as I can tell. As for the GFS vs UKMET, so far as I've seen so far, only the GFS is picking that scenereo...or am I missing one. I'll be interested to see if the UKMET (and the NHC) keep trending toward this solution. My problem is that the ridge extending S and W early in the week then retreating by mid-week, gives Frances time to recurve back to the North-NW just in time to still make a SE coast landfall either via Florida or just missing it. At least it seems this way at present. It's all a guess and the best guessers so far have been the NHC, but being human, they can and do make mistakes so we all need to stay informed. This could affect any one of us real soon.

I am reading everyone's discussions on Frances but I still see the NHC track trending more and more towards the lower Florida Eastern Coast AKA Key West and Miami - is there going to be a sharp turn in there and pulls her up the to the Eastern Coast? Just curious?

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