Archive for November, 2013

Before I discuss the current and future weather, I want to talk about this year’s hurricane season. Well, today (Saturday, November 30th) is the last official day of the Atlantic hurricane season. It turned out to be a much quieter hurricane season than forecasters expected. That is great news. Although it doesn’t take a busy hurricane season to cause problems for the United States as Hurricane Andrew proved in 1992. That year was not a busy year, but the folks in South Florida got slammed by this intense major hurricane. The city of Homestead, FL was especially hard hit. There were only two hurricanes this year which is well below normal. Why was this year below normal? The two major factors were wind shear and dry air. There may have been other factors that contributed to the below normal season. Speaking of below normal, although we picked up around two inches of rain this past week, we are running a precipitation deficit. We may get a chance to add a little to the rain totals early this week as a low pressure system is expected to form off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday. Rainfall totals should be light and it looks like the best chance of rain will be the further southeast you are. Temperatures should be around normal on Sunday and Monday. They’ll trend downward towards mid-week but they should go back up later in the week. I don’t believe we will see the temperature extremes that we saw last week. At least that is the way it looks right now. That’s it for now. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

The low pressure system that brought all the wet weather on Tuesday and Wednesday is moving through the Canadian Maritimes. It is now a deep cyclone as there are numerous isobars surrounding the system. Isobars are lines of equal barometric pressure. The more isobars that surround a cyclone, the more intense the storm is. Rainfall totals in my Virginia Beach neighborhood were around two inches. However, well to our west, there were much higher rainfall totals. Winds were quite strong especially on Wednesday afternoon as the low began to pull away. Winds are much lighter now as high pressure builds in. It’s a cold high so temperatures this Thanksgiving Day are going to be below normal. There’ll be lots of sunshine, however. Temperatures will slowly moderate and by Sunday, highs should be closer to normal. There is some uncertainty in the extended forecast as computer models differ in the location of an expected low pressure system developing off the Carolina coast. The exact position and intensity of this potential system will determine our weather early next week. I’ll have an update on Saturday.

An expansive high pressure system will bring us dry conditions Sunday and Monday and the pressure gradient between the high pressure area and a low pressure system in far northeastern Canada will bring strong winds today (Sunday), especially early in the day. We’ll see a gradual slackening in the wind speed later today through tomorrow as the high pressure area builds into the region. Temperatures will be very chilly and highs will most likely not get out of the 30’s for most of us here in Hampton Roads. Monday will be a calmer day but temperatures will remain on the chilly side. Meanwhile a major storm system will be gathering in the Gulf Coast states. This low pressure system is expected to bring us a significant rain event from late Tuesday into Wednesday. South and southeast winds out ahead of the storm system and on the backside of the departing high pressure system will bring in milder air, so all precipitation should be in the form of rain here in Hampton Roads. Winds will also pick up as the storm system approaches. By Thanksgiving Day, we should clear out and it should be a dry but chilly day.

This past week, we experienced the coldest weather so far this season. Temperatures dropped into the upper 20’s in my Virginia Beach neighborhood. On Friday, we saw temperatures rebound to very pleasant levels making for a beautiful day. A trough developed along the Carolina coast overnight bringing some light rain to the area. The rain has moved offshore and today (Saturday) should be a decent day with some sunshine and mild temperatures. Sunday’s forecast is a bit tricky as some computer models suggest that it may be cloudy with even some drizzle possible, while others keep in dry during the daytime. By Sunday night, a strong cold front will be approaching the region. Showers and even a thunderstorm are possible with this frontal passage on Monday but current indications are that the strongest dynamics will pass to our north. By Tuesday, temperatures will be much lower and we should see drier conditions.

Today (Veterans Day) will be a very nice day but an Arctic cold front will be approaching the Hampton Roads area tonight. It will be chilly but nothing compared with what is to come tomorrow and Wednesday. The air mass behind this front is very cold and will bring the coldest temperatures so far this season. Winds will increase behind the front making it feel even chillier. There may be some light precipitation associated with the frontal passage. It isn’t out of the question that some snowflakes might mix in as temperatures drop on Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to drop through the 40’s on Tuesday into the 30’s by evening. High pressure will build in by mid-week and temperatures will moderate later in the week. Dry conditions are expected during the mid to late week period… Just a few comments on the super typhoon in the Philippines and our hurricane season: After watching the utter devastation that is just incredible in the Philippines, I realize just how fortunate we were this hurricane season despite predictions of an active season. It proves that there are other forecasting factors at play aside from El Nino, La Nina, Atlantic sea surface temperatures, etc, etc. Dry air in the mid-layers of the atmosphere , dust from the Sahara Desert, hostile upper-level winds all combined to make the Atlantic hurricane season a quiet one this year. That’s it for now. Don’t forget to think about the military veterans today who sacrifice so much for this country.