Science Fiction Studies

# 15 = Volume 5, Part 2 = July 1978

William Sims Bainbridge and Murray Dalziel

The Shape of Science Fiction as Perceived by the Fans

Science fiction deserves scientific analysis. While
conventional qualitative literary analysis has been extended to science fiction
in a progressively more refined manner, quantitative analysis of the structure
and content of SF has seldom been attempted. Therefore, this article is a step
in a new direction, presenting the chief results of a quantitative analysis of
the relationships perceived by readers among twenty-seven authors and several
types of literature. So that our statistical findings will be generally
intelligible, we have presented them in four charts, analogous to maps of
physical territory, defining the shape of science fiction.

What does our work achieve? We verify the suspicion of other
critics that the field can be divided into three main realms: Hard-Science SF,
New-Wave SF, and a cluster of types of Fantasy. Our research goes beyond mere
typification to the actual measurement of the differences and similarities
perceived by readers between authors and literary types. The research instrument
was a questionnaire completed by 130 editors of American fanzines and their
associates. These men and women acted as literary experts, but the statistical
techniques we used permitted us to construct and explore a more objective
picture of the field than any individual could have given.

The first two of our charts are based on a number of
preference items in the questionnaire. We presented each respondent with a list
of 27 authors and 17 kinds of literature, and asked him to say how much he liked
or disliked each one, on a seven-point scale. Twenty of the authors were all the
writers who won Hugo awards for fiction in the ten years 1963-1972. We added
seven other authors, mainly earlier ones, to extend the list in breadth and
historical perspective. The literature types included all the expressions for
different kinds of SF we had seen used in fanzines and in conversation among
fans, augmented by a few other kinds of literature that also came up in such
discussions. We also asked a political question to determine the respondents'
orientations on current political issues. The data from these questions were
analyzed by calculating statistical correlations. That is: Did those fans who
liked author X also tend to like author Y? Or: Which authors are preferred by
those fans who prefer literature type Z? Thus we used the likes and dislikes of
fans to explore the connections between different writers and kinds of
literature.

Our third and fourth charts are based on another set of
questions, specifically focusing on similarity between authors, answered by 66
of our respondents. We gave each of them a randomized list of the 27 authors,
with the following instructions: "After the name of each author below,
please enter the names of the authors most similar to him or her which are on
the list of names." Data of this kind are somewhat more difficult to handle
statistically than the preference data, but provide a good check on the validity
of our analysis.

The Three Science-Fiction Constellations.Figure
1, which happens to look very much like a traditional star map, charts five
types of science fiction and ten authors. The vertical dimension is the strength
with which the average fan likes each type and author, with the best-liked near
the top, and the least-liked at the bottom. The horizontal dimension represents
the correlation between authors or literary types and political orientation. The
left side of the map shows the fiction preferred by left-wing readers, and the
right side shows the fiction preferred by right-wing readers. The solid and
dashed lines linking authors and styles of literature show some significant
positive associations revealed in our statistical analysis. Three
"constellations" are readily apparent to the eye: Hard-Science, New-Wave
and a Fantasy Cluster.

Hard-Science SF is a completely unambiguous term. It refers to
stories built around certain facts or speculations concerning the
"exact" or "hard" sciences, and is usually optimistic about
the value of scientific and technological progress. There is a tendency for Hard-Science
to be associated with the political right (gamma = 0.26), and fans whose own
political orientation is Moderate or Conservative show a tendency to prefer this
type of fiction. Those who particularly like Hard-Science also tend to enjoy
reading factual reports on the space program and on spaceflight (gamma = 0.36).
Nine of our authors were strongly associated with Hard-Science, with Asimov
(Gamma = 0.54) heading the list, followed by Niven, Clarke, Anderson, Heinlein,
Dickson, Campbell, Verne, and Herbert, in that order.

Although the term "New-Wave" is well known to
science fiction fans, an exact definition is hard to find. Our correlational
analysis has established several characteristics of this type of literature. New-Wave
SF is strongly associated with the political left (gamma = 0.51), and is
preferred by readers who consider themselves politically Liberal or Radical. We
found that four descriptive phrases were significantly associated with New-Wave:
avant-garde fiction which experiments with new styles, fiction concerned with
harmful effects of scientific progress, utopian political novels and essays, and
fiction which deeply probes personal relationships and feelings. Eight authors
were strongly connected with New-Wave, with Ellison (gamma = 0.57) heading the
list, followed by Delany, Silverberg, Dick, LeGuin, Farmer, Zelazny, and
Lafferty, in that order.

The Fantasy wing of science fiction is divided into at least
three related parts. We found a strong association between sword-and-sorcery and
science-fantasy (gamma = 0.50). Smaller correlations linked these two types with
horror-and-weird fiction (gammas = 0.24, 0.18). Figure 1 represents these
connections as solid lines linking the three types into a Fantasy Cluster. It is
quite separate from either Hard-Science or New-Wave and has no particular
political orientation. Burroughs is the leading sword-and-sorcery writer (gamma
= 0.35), while Leiber leads in science-fantasy (gamma = 0.40), and Lovecraft
dominates horror-and-weird (gamma = 0.76). Other authors that write Fantasy at
least part of the time are: Anderson, Dickson, Farmer, McCaffrey, Simak, Tolkien,
Vance, and Wells.

The Science-Fiction Galaxy. Figure 2
maps the association between each of the twenty-seven authors and the two
extreme types of fiction, New-Wave and Hard-Science. The vertical dimension
represents the correlation (gamma) between New-Wave and each author. The
horizontal dimension represents the correlation between Hard-Science and each
author. Thus, New-Wave authors, who tend also to have negative correlations with
Hard-Science, are positioned in the upper left corner of the chart. Hard-Science
authors are in the lower right corner. Writers who are not strongly associated
with either type are near the center. The galaxy of authors is somewhat banana-shaped
because there is a negative correlation (gamma = 0.25) between the two types of
fiction.

Similarity Between Authors. Figure 3
uses the similarity data to show connections between individual authors. In this
chart, unlike the other three, distance between points has no meaning. The names
were positioned to make the chart as clear as possible to read. The lines
connect authors that eleven or more of the sixty-six respondents felt were
similar. The number eleven (1/6 of the total possible) was chosen because it was
the highest number that revealed at least one connection for each author. For
instance, 14 people said Silverberg was similar to Ellison; 17 said Brunner was
similar to Silverberg, but only three said Ellison was similar to Brunner. So we
drew lines connecting Ellison with Silverberg and Silverberg with Brunner. We
did not draw a line connecting Brunner with Ellison.

This similarity chart is rather like a road map. One can start
with any author and trace one's ways from author to author, at each step moving
between authors that are very much like each other. But the eye immediately
spots three groups of authors, the same three types we have already identified.
At the top we see the New-Wave writers; in the middle is the Fantasy Cluster,
and Hard-Science is at the bottom. The great density of lines connecting
Hard-Science authors is not only the result of their close similarity but also
reflects their great popularity. When a respondent is asked to think about any
one of these writers, the names of the others come quickly to mind.

Although these groups are pretty much distinct, certain
authors are bridges between the different styles. This is consistent with
literary creativity. Writers often experiment with different styles. The
connections linking Zelazny with Vance and Simak with Asimov are actually rather
weak, mentioned by few of our respondents, but they undoubtedly express the
versatility of Zelazny and Simak as writers. The single author that is the
strongest link connecting the three groups is Burroughs, but this may be the
result of two accidents, rather than representing a real bridge between the
types. Burroughs and Verne share the characteristic of antiquity. Both were
born, wrote, and died many years ago. The connection between Farmer and
Burroughs can be explained by the fact that Farmer has earned extra fame and
money by writing sequel books in Burroughs' extremely popular Tarzan series.
Thus, although there are some connections linking the three groups, the map
really shows three separate clusters of authors.

Similarity-Space Map of Science Fiction. Figure
4 is very easy to read with the eye, but somewhat more difficult to understand
intellectually. The data it represents are the complete set of similarity
judgments, a total of 2,838, made by the 66 respondents. The twenty-seven
authors are graphed inside an equilateral triangle divided into three regions.
The Fantasy Cluster writers are near the top; Hard-Science writers are at the
lower right, and New-Wave writers are at the lower left. This chart examines the
Science Fiction Galaxy from a new direction, probably from the vantage point
that best reveals its natural structure.

The intellectual subtlety of this chart is that it appears to
map three dimensions on a flat plane without any distortion. But we have always
been taught that this is impossible! However, the geometric properties of the
triangle and the statistical properties of the similarity data, make it quite
possible. In making the chart, we combined information from Figure 2 and Figure
3. Nine authors are identified as Hard-Science writers by Figure 2, and eight
are associated with New-Wave. With these two lists in mind, we looked at
similarity data for each of the twenty-seven authors. For example, when we asked
who was similar to Zelazny, there were altogether 127 responses. A total of 69
of these (54%) were the names of authors we had identified in Figure 2 as
New-Wave writers. Only five responses (4%) were the names of Hard-Science
writers, but 53 (42%) were names in neither of these two categories,
predominantly Fantasy Cluster writers. The three sides of the triangle represent
points of zero similarity to one or another of the three types. In setting the
scale for the chart, we let the altitude of the triangle (the perpendicular
distance from any corner to the opposite side) equal to 100%. We located
Zelazny's point by measuring 54% of this distance perpendicular from the zero
New-Wave line, 4% from the zero Hard-Science line, and 42% from the zero Fantasy
line. The same process was used to plot the other twenty-six authors.
Mathematically inclined readers may amuse themselves by figuring out why this
chart introduces no distortion in mapping all three types of science fiction at
once.

Charts such as the four published
with this article may be taken as the starting point of literary discussions and
of further quantitative research. Statistical techniques can be used to examine
much finer details of writing style, to compare individual novels and stories,
and even to analyze changes in science fiction writing over time. Our twenty-seven
authors, although among the best, still constitute but a tiny fraction of all SF
writers. There is much work to be done in the scientific analysis of the shape
of science fiction.

ABSTRACT

This article presents the chief results of a quantitative
analysis of the relationships perceived by readers among twenty-seven authors
and several types of literature. The research instrument was a questionnaire
completed by 130 editors of American fanzines and their associates. So that our
statistical findings will be intelligible, we have presented them in four charts
that taken together define the shape of science fiction. We verify the
suspicions of other critics that the field can be divided into three main
realms: Hard-Science SF, New-Wave SF, and a cluster of types of Fantasy