Thursday, December 06, 2007

SignalStatusReading

Dear Readers. Signal Status is 5 digit number of the type 1,1,0,0,1 where 1(BUY) and 0(SELL) signals relate to the 5 timeframes of WEEK/DAY/60M/15M/5M. This way the signal is a multidimentional entity. x in place of 0 or 1 means the particular signal is not relevant for our discussion, even though it has a value(1 or 0). Please note for Japanese YEN 1 means sell, cause the YEN is quoted in inverse. Note, for short term traders the hourly (middle ) signal is the most dominant signal. While markets can go against this signal that cannot and will not last too long. These are powerful signals. Of, course even with 1,1,1,1,1 the market can go down. No guarantees here, but again for short term trader if you see picture of x,x,1,1,1 or x,x,1,0,1 or x,x,1,1,0 you should be relatively safe to buy this market , using limits and other info, of course.13:03 ET, Stock market ES futures is now hitting the 5th resistance at 1498! It is not the greatest sign that SPX is leading not Nasdaq?13:25 ET, So far 1498 on ES is holding!Jim Taylor, JD said...Hi Boris,HI JD, Huge Resistance Cluster:13486 DOW2679 NAZ9926 NYSE2105.5 NDX1001492.5 S&P500Best Regards,JimJim Taylor, JD said...SHORT DOW at 13515 Jim12/06/2007 11:14 AM

14:25 ET, Another Assault on the 1498 level by ES futures is/has failed? Could be, unfortunately though the trend does not seem to be exhausted on the 5 min chart.14:38 ET, We have now reached the exhaustion on 5 and 15 min charts and 15 and 5 min signals just flipped into sell making the current SPX status x,x,0,0,0

Boris, Waldo, John,Intraday money flow calculations show that XLF and SPY are being heavily sold by institutional money. Looks like distribution. XLF has an 8:1 down ratio and SPY is 3:1. That is measured by down/up ticks on block trades.

Would it be better to wait until after the Tuesday Fed decision to go short? Or will the bus leave the station by then without me?

Dear Blaine,Even as so many things indicate that we should be shorting market. I would love to see that the Yellow oscillator on the Summation chart has stopped rising and dropped back towards the zero line, to make sure that we do not have sleepless nights.

Now, we could be late as that may happen as the market tanked in early ( night in USA) hours. But these are the things traders must consider individually.

Now to reiterate the state...

1) our Million Dollar system is short at this point2) our Summation line is high and ready to hit back3) Status as displayed in 5 digit notation is bearish.

Hi Boris, I really like the annotation you put on your summation chart...makes it much clearer...wanted to mention that if the market doesn't reach the 1517-1521 range an earlier Fibonacci target would be 1511 which is 62% of the 10/11/07 to 11/26/07 drop and also a 62% extension of the first surge off of the 11/26/07 bottom...

Hi Boris this is Sam if u rembmer, I want to wish you a happy chanukah for you and your family.Boris could u please, send me an email to sam.kohan@yahoo.comi need to ask your opinion on a subject. Wish u a good trading and thank you.Sam

Dear Lag, at this point it is just a matter of nerves being strong enought to stand in there, as the trends are so stretched that they will/should change, but it may not be soon enough depending on what your ability to withstand the trend against you is.

I hope your position is managable, then I would not worry about it too much as this must be traced back in a correction to come soon.

If your exposure is big though, I would lighten up , at least as soon as Q's have printed 52.23

I bought puts on the DIA in two steps today. Half at the SPX high limit and the other half at the close. The market doesn't seem to be listening to Jim Taylor and Boris today. But like Boris said, the gauges start acting weird around Fed time...

Dear Blaine,The gages are OK at this moment, especially the summation. It is saying simply that we need to wayt until those YELLOW and BLUE oscillators come down and from the looks of it today none of them came down. So, we respect the markets wishes and keep waiting for a better time to short.

Boris, the only difference is that September "Fed time" had a rising yellow brick road. We are facing a falling YBR next week.

I just tried to anticipate an oscillator turn today, which obviously failed. I found that if I wait on the oscillator to turn, I miss the tops sometimes by a wide margin. I certainly will wait for the next oscillator downtick before proceeding.

I was also overly courageous when I saw how heavily the SPY was being distributed today by the block orders. Even the DJIA saw healthy distribution.

GROUPTATION -> MAINTAINER, IVAN

About Federal Reserve

On Sunday, December 23, 1913, two days before Christmas, while most of Congress was on vacation, President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law.

Wilson would later express profound regret over his tragic decision, stating:

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world - no longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."

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