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Wednesday, March 12

Busy tracking the now cast but we feel good about the next few hours producing moderate to heavy snow from the city and areas West and South. 4-7" in this area possible through 6 p.m. Blizzard conditions will continue and likely get worse as snow deepens and temperatures fall.

4-7 through 6:00 pm and that is it. Gran totals of 8 inches in most areas and some with 6 inches. What a joke lucky winds were right on because that helps only be a gigantic bust instead of super gigantic.

I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing a big deal with this storm. I'm in Greece by Latta Rd. It's blowing around, but not a lot of snow. I've seen worse, I can see schools closing, but businesses and malls? Not impressed at all. Unless the storm hasn't hit yet?? Can someone explain? Am I missing something??Lou

Those are saying NBD have clearly not been on the roads... I live one minute from the airport, at least 6" right now and unless you have AWD, you can't go more than 25 mph, with most side streets untouched by plows.

So this is it? We are in a blizzard?? Wow! My husbands work closed early, which never happens. He said it was a typical snowy drive home, but he really wasn't delayed that much. I remember back in the 70's having a blizzard! Everything was at a complete halt. I guess I keep waiting for the snow!! Lou

It's has been disappointing to me to be honest. I expected temps to be colder with more fluffy snow at this point. We expected 10-15 for most with up to 18" near the lake. Looks like the lower end of those numbers at this point.

I've been purposely avoiding the blog today because I wanted to go out and enjoy the storm instead of sitting here watching people freak out about dry slots and radar trends. The airport is probably up around 6 inches by now based on surrounding observations, and we should see another 3-5 there through 6pm with the radar filling in to our west. That would put us at 9-11 with another 3-6 or so on the way afterwards from lake enhancement/lake effect. Do the math, that's a total of 12-17 inches which is consistent with just about every forecast. One thing to consider with blizzards is that snow depths will tend to be dramatically lower than actual accumulations suggest because a lot of it ends up in drifts. I got over 20 inches from the Buffalo lake effect blizzard in January, yet the snow depth only averaged about 10 inches. With this storm there is currently one lonely 3 foot drift sitting in between two nearby buildings with grass exposed all around it.

You people sitting here obsessing over radar and dry slots and crying "bust" are missing out on some pretty amazing scenery, especially when the wind kicks in with heavier rates. I stopped caring about final totals when the row of cars 20 feet from my window disappeared in a shroud of white. Loosen up and enjoy what Mother Nature is giving you today, and stop worrying about numbers so much. That will be all from me for awhile.

I never said we'd see multiple feet of fluff now did I? And I tossed my 12-17 aside because I didn't want to seem like I was trying to override Scott's post. My opinion is still that most of us will surpass a foot.

It is amazing! RC on 10 this morning now this is 6:00am so three hours from storm starting showed his computer model animating total snow fall. It showed over 19 inches in Rochester and 21 inches in Canandaigua. We are going to be lucky to get 6-8 and this was 3 hours before the storm! Explain that to me? ALL models showed at least 14 -16 inches for Rochester right until this morning and we get 6-8. Explain this to me? I could understand if we were 2 days out heck or even a day. These were 4 3 hours away.

I was out in the for a bit and I wouldn't say NBD. When the wind kicks up you can't see much of anything and there are decent sized drifts all over. But of course no matter what happens people will be disappointed. Such is life.

Just returned back from plowing, let me tell you, there is ZERO visibility out there! May only be 5-6 inches but you cannot see period. Please stay off the roads if you don't need to be out. With nobody on the roads I am able to go 55mph+ with my plow down on the ground and grunt. Also don't be fooled. The back side of this storm will fill in alot more than it has. It is NOT over so quit the complaining! Please stay safe!

24 hours ago I was walking my dog in a light coat with no hat or gloves.. today I'm looking out my window at heavy snow and strong winds.. at times it is hard to see the tree 25 yards from my house. That is amazing enough for me.

The dry slot to our west is starting to fill back in, and the deformation zone over Ohio is intensifying.

I hope my barrage of posts can bring people back to their senses a little bit. This is still an awesome storm even if large totals aren't realized, but it's abundantly clear that we're not even close to done with it yet.

Never underestimate the potency of deformation banding coupled with lake enhancement. I've seen numerous storms pushed above and beyond the scope of most forecasts by overperforming deformation fluff. This looks like an increasingly impressive deformation zone as well, and I would imagine winds aren't as strong there.

Everyone relax and take a chill pill. The system is indeed filling back in as CCCC mentioned, so all hope is not lost! I think were in for a surprise this evening as this storm is not nearly over with. In fact if it stops snowing in the next 2 hours I will gladly jump in snowdogs dutch oven!! thats how sure I am!!

From NWS discussion:AS OF 18Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM NEAR PITTSBURGH. AREA RADARS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTIVE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A SECOND AND STRONGER AREA OF DEFORMATION BAND/WRAPAROUND SNOW NOW WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS LATTER AREA WILL BE A HEAVIER AND LONGER-LASTING ROUND OF SNOW THAT WILL ALSO TREND FLUFFIER OVER TIME AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS...LEADING TO BLIZZARD TO NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS IT IS BLOWN AND DRIFTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. SUCH CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO AS LOW AS ONE SIXTEENTH OF A MILE.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMS...EXPECT A GENERAL 3-6" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING.

I saw the NWS post and I can easily see why they went that route. That heavy band to our west looks exactly like the type of bands that routinely crush coastal areas with big snowfall amounts in strong nor'easters. Some people refer to them as "death bands" because they can deliver very high snowfall rates of multiple inches per hour. This one should slide steadily eastward rather than pivoting over one area for too long, and won't have excessive rates associated with it, but I wouldn't be surprised if the highest snowfall rates of the entire storm came from that band.

I'm starting to think Scott may have jumped the gun a bit when he said he's leaning towards lower totals. Seems like it took only a few hours longer than expected to transition to fluffier snow, and now more than one expert source is forecasting additional significant amounts on top of already significant amounts. Apologies to Scott if this post offends you at all, not trying to criticize your judgement.

We are already up from 6-12 inches so far which means that several more inches would put us at 9-16 inches. Just because you can see some grass does not mean we dont have a ton of snow a lot of it is piling up against things with these winds.

Seems safe to say that any disappointment with this event centers around snowfall predictions. ('Ya think?) Had blizzard conditions not materialized at all I guess I'd be disappointed, too, perhaps so much as to think in terms of "bust" or "NBD." As it is, it's definitely *nasty* outside regardless of whether we receive 8" or 20" inches of snow. Yes, I get the "but it would be *so* much worse" (better?) "had we gotten the inches forecast. They blew it!" In my mind, I don't care. I'm just glad I'm able to be inside where it's safe and warm while watching Mother Nature do her thing outside my window. Enough. Apologies for the rant. (Keep up the good work, Scott. Thanks.)~Joe, in Penfield near the Webster border where the snow is falling and the wind is roaring.

The winds are strong and Scott said the LP is now in eastern Pa. I would think still in a great spot it has to go through and then the wrap around winds could kick in LES especially sine Scott said the winds will slow down but still be 15-25mph. He said the stronger winds keep LES down bc of the speed over the lake.

On Twitter he said that it would be between 9 and 10pm, and that MOST of the accumulating snow would be over. I could see another few inches of lake fluff during the early overnight, simply because it always seems to happen with these storms.

Flake size has increased markedly in the past 10 minutes here. Probably some of the lowest non-gust visibilities of the entire storm so far. On my adventures around the largely abandoned RIT campus today I've seen ridiculous drifting, complete whiteouts, cross country skiers and even a guy on a snowboard being dragged by a truck. Pooh on the naysayers, they don't know what they're talking about when they call this an "average storm with some wind." It's been quite remarkable I'd say, and it's nowhere close to finished.

Please someone call GJ he still has 7-12 tonight with areas finishing with 20 to 22 inches totals. How can he be so far away from the legendary KW and RMA? CCCC you may want to let him know the others are saying 4-8 tops and stopping around 9 while he still has snow until 4am. Come on CCCC help out he already never even mentioned the storm until Monday night.

That deform band looks like it's going to take about 4 hours to work completely through, and rates should average 1-2 inches per hour during that time the way I see it. That would yield an additional 4-8 inches, and I think a few inches of lake fluff in behind will boost that to 6-10. Totals would be 14-18 inches, which is precisely what the Blizzard Warning text indicates.

That is only if the deformation band does NOT get any lake enhancement we could be talking about snow rates of 2-3 inches an hour which would be 8-12 inches which is why I think some people are calling for slightly higher totals. This is not likely but it is possible.

A plow came through just before noon and left a two foot wall at the bottom of the driveway. Glad I decided to attack/clear it (it's also garbage day here; how's that for timing?) as it was formidable then..~ Joe, in Penfield near the Webster border where the flakes are a bit "fatter" now as the wind continues to whip...

Now I am not a weather expert. I do love a good storm as much as the next guy. My question is what are you guys talking about when you speak of deformation bands? And Charles what are the yellows on the radar that your looking for?