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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

GBP-USD Technical Analysis

This is my first post after a long months of absence. Today i will discuss about GBP-USD technical anaysis, a very difficult position to predict as all directions are possible. Just beware of the big movement, either ups or downs will be depend on the fundamental data that we do not know.

Currently the position is hanging on the balance moving to either directions way up, down, sideways are all possible. It is just a matter of time based on the speculation of economic data release, the market may move big time but the direction is highly unknown. This analysis is based on weekly time frame as we are looking at the long-term movement of the forex market.

Upward Market Direction Probabilities

Based on Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) direction and behavior the market still have the power to move upward direction if the crowd speculate based on the economic data. That is something that we cannot predict at all because economic data is can be very tricky, even it release according to expectation it does not necessarily make the market move according the expected direction.

Sideways Market Direction Probabilities

In the weekly time frame the market is already reach its ideal resistance level and testing whether to break or rebound downwards it will be purely based on speculation of traders. On this position we can see that MACD and slow stochastic is moving on the opposite direction. This means that the market is power balance, some are thinking the market is still moving up (based on MACD weekly time frame direction) whereas others are speculating that the market is moving down (based on slow stochastic direction weekly time frame). So as a result of this the power balance can create a sideways direction until it reaches the simple moving average line on weekly time frame bollinger bands.

Downward Market Direction Probabilities

Slow stochastic direction is down (weekly time frame), therefore many of the short-term traders are actually expecting the market to move down. Never ignore this signal as it is proven time and again, slow stochastic can make a very big impact to the market movement if the speculators agreed to the economic data release.

Conclusion

There is no telling the market move up, down, or sideways. All will depends on the fundamental factors. We will wait and see where will the big crowds are heading to.