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Are The Sub Numbers Real? A Polite, Respectful Discussion

MOD NOTE: Feel free to use this thread to debate whether the sub numbers are accurate or not. Please remember to follow the forum rules, though.

I'm excited and relieved that the sub is happening. However, there is NO WAY I will believe that 24% of all sales happened after 10 pm EST last night. I'm sorry, that's ridiculous. Matty says 6% happened that day up until 10 pm EST, and then another 21% late that night? I call shenanigans.

And this DESPITE people who were desperate for the line to fail, because to them i\t would be the only way to "Prove" Scott Neitlich's honesty.

But anyway, I'm not surprised that the .org represents only a small percentage of sales, for several reasons:

1. The vocal internet crowd is very rarely the majority in anything.

2. If we were, then our 1.2K subs would have to be a large portion of what, 5,000? When a toy is produced in a limited number of 5,000, this is usually small enough for its production number to be on the box. 5,000 is absurdly low.

3. He-man.org is relatively exclusionary - if you have a gmail account, you have to pay money - and that helps scare away a lot of casual customers as well as spammers.

4. See point #1 about vocal internet crowd.

Oh yeah, and... to the guy who claimed "Mattel knew this sub was going forward six months ago," I want you to prove your massive conspiracy theory. Just because it went through today doesn't mean that it was decided six months ago, the thermometer was a sham, and they had no minimum. Come on, now, that's a pretty big accusation.

...there is NO WAY I will believe that 21% of all sales happened after 10 pm EST last night. I'm sorry, that's ridiculous. Matty says 6% happened that day up until 10 pm EST, and then another 21% late that night? I call shenanigans.

Originally Posted by lemure77

20+% in a day..shenanigans but knew that would come.

Geez, we have some cynical fans here. Just like Kickstarter, we all know by now a lot of people wait to the last day. So even if you believe it or not, I say stop being so negative and start celebrating!!! Club Eternia 2014 going through is awesome news!

Geez, we have some cynical fans here. Just like Kickstarter, we all know by now a lot of people wait to the last day. So even if you believe it or not, I say stop being so negative and start celebrating!!! Club Eternia 2014 going through is awesome news!

Only 6% of all sales on the final day and then 24% after 10 PM EST, when most customers have logged off? Nope. Sorry. I'm not feeling like celebrating. I mean, I'm glad the sub went through. I want the figures. But unless I get an explanation which I believe, I'll never trust a word Matty says again.

Only 6% of all sales on the final day and then 21% after 10 PM EST, when most customers have logged off? Nope. Sorry. I'm not feeling like celebrating. I mean, I'm glad the sub went through. I want the figures. But unless I get an explanation which I believe, I'll never trust a word Matty says again.

Only 6% of all sales on the final day and then 21% after 10 PM EST, when most customers have logged off? Nope. Sorry. I'm not feeling like celebrating. I mean, I'm glad the sub went through. I want the figures. But unless I get an explanation which I believe, I'll never trust a word Matty says again.

I don't understand why it's SOOOOO unbelievable that overseas buyers waited until the last minute. You do realize that they had basically all of Tuesday's workday to subscribe before it finally closed down. I think you're being very unreasonable.

Only 6% of all sales on the final day and then 21% after 10 PM EST, when most customers have logged off? Nope. Sorry. I'm not feeling like celebrating. I mean, I'm glad the sub went through. I want the figures. But unless I get an explanation which I believe, I'll never trust a word Matty says again.

I doubt it went up 21% after 10pm. The thermometer just wasnt updated.
Dont worry, be happy...

Only 6% of all sales on the final day and then 21% after 10 PM EST, when most customers have logged off? Nope. Sorry. I'm not feeling like celebrating. I mean, I'm glad the sub went through. I want the figures. But unless I get an explanation which I believe, I'll never trust a word Matty says again.

I posted this in the other thread, just before it all was moved to this one:

"I know that Scott said the percentage posted yesterday morning was accurate and not from Friday (84% or whatever it was), but do you think the numbers are actually from present orders? In other words, doesn't DR have to wait to actually receive funds from the Credit/Debit companies? When you make a purchase, the money is "promised" from Visa/Mastercard, etc., but is it actually counted before DR/Mattel physically receives the money. If that were the case, the precentage could be accurate to the number of orders that have completed full processing, but not an accurate view of how many numbers were actually placed by that time.

I guess I just want to know if its realistic to still expect 130% sub sales or something like last year."

Its the only thing I can think might explain the numbers. I too never fully believed the thermometer story, but if this is the case it would explain why the numbers didn't exactly line up with the sub sales accounted for on this thread (even though only a small portion).

I don't understand why it's SOOOOO unbelievable that overseas buyers waited until the last minute. You do realize that they had basically all of Tuesday's workday to subscribe before it finally closed down. I think you're being very unreasonable.

I question whether overseas buyers even do add up to 24% of all subscribers. I remember ToyGuru recently saying they were a small slice of the business.

I posted this in the other thread, just before it all was moved to this one:

"I know that Scott said the percentage posted yesterday morning was accurate and not from Friday (84% or whatever it was), but do you think the numbers are actually from present orders? In other words, doesn't DR have to wait to actually receive funds from the Credit/Debit companies? When you make a purchase, the money is "promised" from Visa/Mastercard, etc., but is it actually counted before DR/Mattel physically receives the money. If that were the case, the precentage could be accurate to the number of orders that have completed full processing, but not an accurate view of how many numbers were actually placed by that time.

I guess I just want to know if its realistic to still expect 130% sub sales or something like last year."

Its the only thing I can think might explain the numbers. I too never fully believed the thermometer story, but if this is the case it would explain why the numbers didn't exactly line up with the sub sales accounted for on this thread (even though only a small portion).

This is one of the explanations which would satisfy me. But it would require Matty admitting that the updates ARE a few days behind. They have specifically said otherwise. I don't see how a company as incompetent as DR would be able to report the sales numbers at the speed TG says, but he does make that claim.

I got my sub and am glad I did, but I must say...Mattel is a master of manipulation. I call foul on Scott and the rest on his flunkies. I haven't seen such a load of crap since the last time they emptied my septic tank. I almost wish they didn't hit their "100%" and it didn't work next year to see what line of crap they gave us next.

yep, agreed. I have no doubt that just like american idol, it's all rigged to get MORE orders than they other wise would have with another system. They are probably popping champagne bottles right now.. "they fell for it again.. We just made an extra million!" ;o)

I got my sub and am glad I did, but I must say...Mattel is a master of manipulation. I call foul on Scott and the rest on his flunkies. I haven't seen such a load of crap since the last time they emptied my septic tank. I almost wish they didn't hit their "100%" and it didn't work next year to see what line of crap they gave us next.

I still think they fudge the numbers just to get alot of BONUS orders in than they otherwise would have gotten with say, the pre order system...
But as a first time subber.. this will be interesting.

So am I assuming you don't have to deal with the WSOD anymore, and things get shipped automatically each month?

Exactly. That's reason enough for me to sub every year right there. It's the reason I started subbing in 2009, and it's the reason I do it to this day (along with having enjoyed each and every release so far).

Only 6% of all sales on the final day and then 24% after 10 PM EST, when most customers have logged off? Nope. Sorry. I'm not feeling like celebrating. I mean, I'm glad the sub went through. I want the figures. But unless I get an explanation which I believe, I'll never trust a word Matty says again.

Cant rain on this parade man. This is not about celebrating your personal dissatisfaction with matty. We are celebrating the victory of another year of life for this amazing line. Take it for what it is and enjoy it!