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South Asia Investor Review is focused on reporting, analyzing and discussing the economy and the financial markets of countries in South Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. For investors looking to invest in emerging markets beyond BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), this blog is designed to help international investors looking to learn about investing in South Asia with focus on Pakistan. Riaz has another blog called Haq's Musings at http://www.riazhaq.com

Indian GDP, Per Capita Income Decline in USD Terms in 2013-14

Advance estimates by Indian Central Statistical Office (CSO) indicate that India's GDP for year 2013-14 is $1.7 trillion, down 9% from $1.87 trillion reported for the previous financial year. However, Indian economy has grown from Rs. 100.2 trillion in 2012-13 to Rs. 105.4 trillion in 2013-14 in terms of local currency.

CSO estimates India's economic growth rate in the current financial year at 4.9 per cent, a faster pace than in the previous year, mainly on an improved performance in the agriculture and allied sectors.

India's per capita income is estimated at Rs. 74,920 (US$ 1201) for the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2014, according to Indian media reports. It is up from Rs 68,757 in 2012-13 in Indian rupee terms, but down based on current USD exchange rates.

While India's growth has slowed a lot in recent years, the recent decline of Indian economy in USD terms is the result of a sharp drop in the value of Indian currency against the US dollar. The Indian rupee has plummeted from 47.80 in 2012 to 54.30 in 2013 to 62.30 to a US dollar now.

The free fall of Indian rupee has dashed the hopes of many in India, including former finance minister and current President Pranab Mukherjee, who were boasting about a $2 trillion economy as early as 2012.

India is now among "The Fragile Five", a phrase first used by Morgan Stanley report last August amid an emerging-market rout caused by investors pulling out their money on speculation the Federal Reserve would soon reduce its bond purchases. That month, the Indonesian rupiah, South African rand and Brazilian real fell to the lowest levels in more than four years and the Turkish lira, like the Indian rupee, was at its weakest rate ever.

The continuing weakness of the Indian rupee and the slow growth of Indian economy are likely to help the electoral fortunes of the Indian Opposition led by the Hindu Nationalist BJP leader Narendra Modi.

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Here's a Mint story on British economist Angus Maddison estimates of India's historic per cap GDP:

Was India a wealthy country before the British came? The numbers that have garnered the most attention have been his GDP estimates, because they fit in with the narrative of a strong India and China getting back their clout in the world economy. But what is that to the average Indian or Chinese citizen? What if the only reason these countries had such a high GDP in earlier times was because they had a larger population?That is what is brought out by Maddison’s estimates of GDP per capita, again in PPP terms in 1990 dollars. In 1 AD, India’s GDP per capita was $450, as was China’s. But Italy under the Roman Empire had a per capita income of $809. In 1000 AD, India’s per capita income was $450 and China’s $466. But the average of the West Asian countries, such as Turkey and Iraq, was much higher at $621. In terms of general prosperity, therefore, it was the Arab world that was doing well a millennium ago. The Caliphate in Baghdad was a centre of power at the time and both science and culture flourished.By 1500, though, new centres of prosperity had emerged. India’s per capita income was $550 and China’s $600 in 1500. The Arab world had declined. But standards of living in Western Europe at that time had already gone far ahead. Italy topped the table, with a per capita income of $1,100, the Netherlands following with a per capita income of $761. This was the Italy of the Renaissance, the Italy of Michelangelo and Leonardo da Vinci, of Raphael and Titian. The UK was not far behind, with a per capita income of $714.By 1600, the centre of Europe had shifted northwards and the golden age of Holland had begun. Dutch per capita income was $1,381 in 1600, while Britain in Shakespeare’s time had a per capita income of $974.Recall that 1600 was the year the East India Company was founded. In contrast, India’s per capita income continued to be $550, while China’s was $600. Note that even Ireland, one of the poorest of Western Europe’s countries, had a per capita income of $615, higher than India’s and China’s. In short, the per capita GDP numbers mirror the changes in power, prosperity and cultural and scientific achievement.It wasn’t till 1981 that India had a per capita income of $977, beating that of Britain in 1600. And it wasn’t until 1993 that India’s per capita income of $1,399 surpassed what the Dutch had achieved in 1600. Maddison’s calculations show that in 2008, India’s per capita GDP ( in 1990 dollars, PPP terms) was $2,975, slightly more than one-third of the world average of $7,614. We have a long way to go.

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I am the Founder and President of PakAlumni Worldwide, a global social network for Pakistanis, South Asians and their friends. I also served as Chairman of the NEDians Convention 2007. In addition to being a South Asia watcher, an investor, business consultant and avid follower of the world financial markets, I have more than 25 years experience in the hi-tech industry. I have been on the faculties of Rutgers University and NED Engineering University and cofounded two high-tech startups, Cautella, Inc. and DynArray Corp and managed multi-million dollar P&Ls. I am a pioneer of the PC and mobile businesses and I have held senior management positions in hardware and software development of Intel’s microprocessor product line from 8086 to Pentium processors. My experience includes senior roles in marketing, engineering and business management. I was recognized as “Person of the Year” by PC Magazine for my contribution to 80386 program. I have an MS degree in Electrical engineering from the New Jersey Institute of Technology.
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