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Trade Comment: The lack of follow through to the upside on the previous two days provided clues that this trade might fail and I could have tightened my Stop after seeing this price action to reduce the risk on the trade. Otherwise, no issues with the trade with all rules followed.

Daily Comment: Sugar crashed back down through the 61.8% retracement level today posting a bearish full bodied candle.

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GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 2 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $300
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices penetrated the 200 SMA after a long uptrend.
Fundamental: Expectations of rising interest rates.

Daily Comment: Eurodollars poked back up above the 200 SMA today. I took a small position at the re-test of the 200 SMA and I will not add to the position until prices break back down through this level.

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Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

HE – Lean Hogs

Hogs were higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle but did not trade high enough to intersect with the 15 SMA.

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- Entered and Stopped out of a Long position in Sugar for a loss.
- Entered a Short position in Eurodollars.
- Entered a Short position in Lean Hogs.

I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.

GE - Eurodollar

Eurodollars broke down through the 200 SMA early in the week but recovered to finish the week back above this level. Prices attempted to rally on Thursday and Friday but were held back at the 20 SMA.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Hogs attempted to rally a number of times this week but were sold off at each attempt but finished the week strongly posting a bullish full bodied candle. If prices can surpass the 20 SMA a short term change of trend might occur.

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SB – Sugar

Sugar broke through the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range on Monday but was unable to follow through crashing back down through this level on Wednesday before finding support at the 40 SMA.

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Gold tried to surpass the 61.8% retracement level a number of times this week but was unable to do so. Each failed attempt was supported at the 40 SMA. With the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level converging I would expect to see Gold break out one way or the other.

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LE – Live Cattle

Cattle was mostly sideways this week attempting to decline on both Thursday and Friday but it was well supported on each attempt. Prices are approaching the flattening 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and if these levels can be exceeded it may present a good buying opportunity.

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NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas prices collapsed this week trading down through the 40 SMA which has been providing support recently. Prices held the 200 SMA on Friday and this level will need to continue to hold for a bullish outcome to prevail.

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CL – Crude Oil

Oil traded up strongly on Thursday and Friday back up to the 200 SMA. A break of this level with impulsiveness will look bullish but I would prefer to see prices above the 61.8% retracement level at $47.69 before making this conclusion.

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DX – US Dollar Index

The Dollar turned lower on Monday and continued lower for the rest of the week finishing the week below the 40 SMA. I am neutral where the Dollar is concerned at this stage.

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KC – Coffee

Coffee fell from the 40 SMA on Monday and continued lower for the rest of the week finishing the week at a new low for the recent corrective range.

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CT – Cotton

The hypothesis last week that the break of the major 61.8% retracement level was questionable turned out to be correct with Cotton prices collapsing on Tuesday and trading back down to the 40 SMA to finish the week.

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Copper attempted to rally in the middle of the week but was unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. The price action on Friday was negative but the 200 SMA held at this stage.

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ZS – Soybeans

Any rallies in Soybeans this week were unable to surpass the 20 SMA each time but prices continue to hold above the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend. The candle each day this week was indecisive and further evidence is required to make an assumption about the next direction for Soybean prices.

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ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil rallied strongly this week closing the week above the rising 200 SMA. If prices can also surpass the 61.8% retracement level at 33.69 an implied target of 40.03 could be possible.

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6E - Euro

The Euro traded back above the 200 SMA again and traded within a tight range around this level for the week.

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ZN - 10 Year Note

The Notes rallied back up to the 40 SMA this week after the sell off last Friday and traded above and below this level for the rest of the week.

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Last edited by muttoez; August 14th, 2016 at 01:09 AM.
Reason: Added ZL

Daily Comment: Hogs gapped higher on the open and continued higher for the rest of the day surpassing the 20 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle. I’m in two minds as to whether to exit now or wait to see how prices react near the 40 SMA which is not far away.

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Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

GC – Gold

Gold traded in a very small range today posting another indecisive candle but continues to hold above the 40 SMA.

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ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil was up strongly during the overnight session confirming the break of the 200 SMA and continued higher during the day session to trade up to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Unfortunately the rapid rise during the overnight session prohibited my entry on the break of the 200 SMA during the day session as prices moved outside my risk tolerance parameters. I will look to enter on the break of the 61.8% retracement level instead.

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Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars were higher again during the overnight session pushing past my Stop level. I waited for the CPI data release before triggering my Stop and the market retreated after the release to finish the day lower and post a candle with a long upper shadow.

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Daily Comment: Hogs opened higher but quickly reversed to finish the day lower back down at the short term moving averages posting a bearish full bodied candle.

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Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

GC – Gold

Gold traded above the 61.8% retracement level again today but couldn’t hold onto the gains finishing the day slightly higher and posting a candle with an upper shadow.

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ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil was lower during the overnight session trading back down below the 61.8% retracement level but recovered to finish the day higher and close back above this level. I’m looking for a close above the 34 level before taking a position.

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SB – Sugar

Sugar traded above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range but closed off the highs right back at the 61.8% retracement level posting a candle with an upper shadow.

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Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars were lower early in the session trading back below the 200 SMA after comments by Fed members about rising interest rates but reversed after the FOMC minutes to finish the day only slightly lower and post a candle with a lower shadow.

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Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

GC – Gold

Gold bounced off the 40 SMA again today and continues to trade within the range between the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level.

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ZL – Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil surged higher again during the overnight and followed through during the day session but finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. Unfortunately the rally in the overnight session took price too far outside my risk tolerance levels to take a position during the day session. I will wait for a pullback to take a position.

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SB – Sugar

Sugar failed at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range today trading back down to the 40 SMA and posting a bearish full bodied candle.

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