Primary Turnout in Majority African-American Districts Up From 2014

A new TargetSmart analysis shows that primary turnout in majority African-American zip codes has largely increased in 2018 compared to 2014, foreshadowing the impact voters of color and those in diverse districts are poised to have on the upcoming midterm elections.

County- and state-level analysis of the 23 states which have available primary data show that voters in majority African-American zip codes have increased their 2018 primary turnout rates by a nationwide average of 4.8 percentage points compared to 2014. Key battleground states have seen even larger turnout increases, including Missouri (+11.91), Illinois (+11.64), California (+8.7), Indiana (+5.13), and Minnesota (+14.09).

The new analysis comes on the heels of another TargetSmart report finding that election turnout amongst youth voters has increased by an average of 4 percent nationwide in 2018 primary elections compared to 2014 primary elections, and has more than doubled in some key battleground states compared to 2014.

“This new analysis of turnout in majority African-American zip codes reflects the reality that we have been seeing all year in primaries: voters are engaged, outraged, and poised to turn out in larger numbers than in years past,” said Tom Bonier, TargetSmart CEO. “Just as we’ve seen with younger voters, those whose rights and livelihoods are on the line in this election are energized. If primary turnout is any indication, next month’s midterm election will see potentially record-breaking turnout.”

Using 2016 Census data, TargetSmart compiled a list of majority African-American zip codes. Upon combining this list with the voter file, TargetSmart was able to determine and compare the number of registered voters to the number who voted in the 2014 and 2018 primary elections. The data was organized county- and state-level to determine how turnout had changed between 2014 and 2018. Even at the statewide level, the counts only represent those who voted in or were registered in a majority African-American zip code.