I really don't think that's a helpful figure. There are going to be thousands of people who were never tested or never developed symptoms. The real fatality rate is extremely likely to be much less than 1%, perhaps even as little as 0.1.

The number of deaths to those tested is going to change - the government has said tests will increase to 10,000 and then 25,000 by the end of April.

I’ve been checking the BBC number of cases in your area [www.bbc.co.uk]. Again this is based on official figures (the number of cases reported by health authority) and gives the population. So maybe not the full picture but at least a like for like comparison.

To me more relevant - the only way the death rate can be kept down is to keep down the number getting infected which is something we can all play our part in keeping down.

I’ve not checked every day but the first I checked was 15 March and there were 28 cases for the population of 317,256 (0.009% of the population). Today there are 319 cases (0.1% of the population).

Sorry Worldwiser, but that is just not how mortality rates are measured. Comparing mortality to cases presenting themselves for treatment however, IS, how mortality is calculated. So if 3% are fatalities, that is 30 times more than the 0.1% for seasonal flu. It is frustrating to see the playing down of the seriousness of this by the argument around non-diagnosed and therefore, uncounted for, cases. 3% (and the global average may well get closer to 10% by the time this is over) is millions of people. This SARS virus sees 18% (from data so far) of those developing symptoms, needing ICU care. And some people, with no underlying conditions are dying. So let's just accept that this is a serious global pandemic, and that until we have effective antiviral treatment, and/or a working vaccine, this is something we need to keep under control as far as we can. Let's hope the virus doesn't mutate between waves too.

If you do not believe the data, that's your choice, but the data is what it is.

And the data is statistically so flawed - if you are trying to derive an overall mortality rate - as to be completely useless. The data you show are most close to the mortality rate of those presenting to hospital (i.e. already very ill) and who are shown to be infected with Covid-19. That could be as few as 10% of those with symptoms, and possibly 5% or less of those who are both with, and without symptoms, but who have the infection. We know there are symptomless individuals from many other studies.

What you are doing is intentionally scaring people by quoting flawed figures - HMG publish both 'tested positive' and 'death' figures but DO NOT then produce a mortality rate from that - because they know it wouldn't be true or accurate. You are doing, quite statistically wrongly, that last bit of maths on your own, and your constant need to post this scary and inaccurate analysis of HMG figures does suggest a desire to troll this thread.

Comparing mortality to cases presenting themselves for treatment however, IS, how mortality is calculated.

This is not what is happening - only the most serious cases, those needing hospitalisation, are being let through the 111 net - so this is not a measure of cases but of very serious cases. Flu figures are not in fact kept by anyone, it's not a notifiable disease unlike Covid-19 - and flu is rarely given as a cause of death, more frequently pneumonia. Flu and Covid-19 figures are generated using entirely different criteria, the flu 'totals' tend to be statistical assessments following the end of a flu season. Running flu totals are not given (or even available). Because Covid-19 is known to be symptomless in number of cases, particularly the young, these would never be 'presented' for treatment anyway. The mortality rates are accurate as regards very serious cases (hospitalised) - by definition, but if these are running at what many consider to be 10% or less of all cases a very different pattern emerges.

Below is a link to an excellent stats-based coronavirus post. Generally it's an excellent article, and specifically (near halfway) it addresses mortality/fatality rates in the context of the points raised above, explaining how these can be extrapolated to give a meaningful figure.

Penguin, I know all of that. But some kind of measurement does exist, with all its flaws, because without it, there would be no recognition of what constitutes a pandemic vs just a very bad flu season. And a person can be tested for influenza A virus just as easily as any other virus if a medical measurement needs to be made of that.

I also disagree that referring to present data is meaningless. It is what enables a measure of the risk level of the virus. It also enables a comparison of how different responses and resources compare.

Where I would agree with you is in that only once antibody tests can be done widely, will we get an essence of the true spread of the virus before the lock down measures came in. But for now, it is enough to know that it spreads easily and sends too many people to hospital needing intensive treatment.

se22cat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Teenagers & workmen hacking up phlegm & spitting
> it everywhere, a disgusting bald white guy walking
> down Frogley road with Marks bags yesterday openly
> sneezing onto people without a care in his scumbag
> mind, people from all backgrounds coughing into
> their hands or just openly on the bus then using
> the same hand to hold onto the rail & press the
> button...
>
> Despite the supposedly major increase of ABC1's
> into the area post-90s, the behaviour on show
> daily makes it clear why the figures are high.

beat96uk@yahoo.co.uk Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hello everyone MY FLU STORY
>
> I havent been tested for Covoid 19 but ive just
> survived the worst 'flu' in my 54 years
>
> This is my story for your interest especially for
> anyone who has even a tiny shadow of doubt about
> this virus
>
> Monday 9th starting feeling shivery at lunchtime
> hot then cold then hot then felt fine
>
> Tues 10th felt fine went to work - at lunchtime
> got a headache and by 2pm had a temperature of
> 38.8 and went home. That evening i felt weak and
> terrible and went to bed with paracetamol and so
> drained I could barely walk to the loo slight
> annoying dry cough
>
> Wed 11th temperature dropped to 37.5 whilst on
> paracetamol but after 5 hours would rise back up
> to 38.5+ no appetite whatsoever aches and pains
> all over body and terribly weak cough getting
> worse and now producing phlegm - called my GP who
> told me to drink water, take paracetamol and stay
> home
>
> Thurs 12th the worst day and night with
> temperature not dropping - resorted to ibuprofen
> in desperation as i felt like an overheated oven
> about to explode, temp 38 all day rising to 39 at
> night - called 111 twice crying frightened i was
> dying and told to take paracetamol and stay at
> home!!!! cough got much worse and bringing up
> copious amounts of dark grey mucus (Im a non
> smoker btw) literally crawling to the loo and
> hallucinating on the way, awful headache
>
> Fri 13th temperature down below 38 during the day,
> dreading the evening when it rose again to 39,
> only had water for 3 days now as no appetite and a
> bit nauseous, holding my chest every time i
> coughed as it was so painful, terrible night
> hallucinating and frightened that my chest may
> collapse, called 111 and held on for 45 minutes
> before i gave up
>
> sat 14th temp ok in the day and managed to drink
> some watered down orange juice and a grated apple,
> coughing every 5 minutes all day which was
> exhausting as the cough would last a minute each
> time, no problems breathing but so tired from
> coughing -i ached so much i felt like id been
> beaten, my headache was awful as if id been hit by
> a sledge hammer
> ANOTHER awful night of high fever just horrible
>
> Sun 15th felt a little better during the day
> drinking home made juices and smoothies as i had
> no appetite - cough still bad but slightly less
> often tem down during the day only to rise Again
> for a 6th night running to 39 - felt so weak and
> desperate to feel better and so disappointed that
> i Still had a fever as the day had been ok -
> contant headache
>
> Mon 16th exhausted and dizzy but feeling a bit
> better as cough is drier and less often - temp ok
> during the day and was dreading the night but only
> a slight fever of 37.6
>
> Tues 17th - cough improving no temperature bad
> headache and body still aching as if ive done too
> much in the gym no appetite but no nausea now so
> drinking lots of green juices freshly squeezed
> oranges and water
>
> Wed 18th tried to have a bath alone (my teenagers
> had been caring for me) and fainted, no fever
> annoying dry cough headache and exhausted
>
> Thurs 19th no fever dizzy spells dry cough aching
> body headache is less no appetite
> Fri 20th as above
> Sat 21st as above
> sun 22nd as above
>
> Monday 23rd no fever less coughing mild headache
> less aches in body
> Tues 24th as above
> Wednesday 25th dizzy spells mild headache
> Thursday 26th slight appetite dizzy and ache
> allover
> Friday 27th better appetite ache and exhausted
> Saturday 28th appetite small but returning feel
> drained
> Today appetite better so so tired but no other
> symptoms
>
> THIS IS NO JOKE - im a very healthy eater, i drink
> a lot of water, non smoker, non drinker, gym 3
> times a week, i cycle, i swim , i jog BUT I STILL
> GOT THIS AWFUL FLU
>
> PLEASE EVERYONE TAKE CARE AND REALLY STAY HOME IF
> YOU CAN because i do feel that if hadnt started
> out as healthy adult it would definitely would
> have killed me
>
> Take care stay safe and drink lots of hot drinks
> to keep your throat moist as apparently it may
> prevent the virus travelling to the lungs, i dont
> know if this true but anyway please STAY HOME
> XXXX
>
> PS APOLOGIES FOR AWFUL TYPING

So possible classic symptoms Day 1 - 11
recovering after that.
The "go away" and "come back" thing seems to be reported a lot too

Around Day 12 is when it can go to your lungs - so looks like if it was Covid19 you 'got away' with the first set of symptoms.

I have heard of loss of all taste and smell is quite common. Fluids are good for us always and vitc - but unsure if they have a specific effect against this mind.

In deed, this thread can be quite toxic. The earlier post was pompous at the best, going through elitist through to full on hate. I wondered if it may be ironic, to draw the attention to some of my concerns, but it appeared to too specific.

The sarcastic/passive aggressive title of this thread seems to attract a clash of middle class sensitivities with Daily Mail/Hate rants. Telling that BJ majored on society (ie the good things that we are doing) distancing from Thatcher stating that there is no such thing as society [www.theguardian.com] celebrating the cult of individuality.

Anyway, whether this crisis will help to mend broken Brexit Britain we will have to see. Let's hope so. Meanwhile can we encourage people (society) to do the right thing and focus on the positives?

That doesn't mean an end to political discussions or a ban of humour, including dark and gallows. Ps just heard that you need to wear masks in Austria when going outside. Don't recommend these masks (warning this image can give nightmares) [www.revolvermag.com]

Dulwich handy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Don't know if anyone is interested in reading how
> I feel beeing positive .
> ---
> Before cough etc I felt well tired for couple of
> days just lifeless
> Diarrhoea for 3 days
> Cough came after
> Lack of appetite
> More annoying cough almost 60sec at the time
> Mostly during day randomly never in the morning
> Then came fever 37.5°-39.5°
> (3 consecutive days)
> Chest pain
> Shortage of breath
> - that time called for help that never came
> Been told to stay home !
> Left to die!
> With no access to help or chance to get out to get
> medications
> I've done what the ambulance crew done to my child
> few years back
> - ice cold bath for 3-5min
> Temperature went down do °37
> Then up again
> Same cold bath
> Stabilized at 36.6°
> Started feeling good and full of energy again
> Cough still there
> (10 days in by now )
> Lost sense of smell
> Literally can't smell anything for past 2 days
> (Day 12)
> Feel like my eyes want to pop out
> Ave no sense of taste as well now
> Humongous headaches
> My eyes hurt
> My chest hurt
> Coughing almost half a day
> Can't smell
> Can't taste
> But anxious due to overdose of amphetamine filled
> over counter drugs
> (Cold and flu meds are filled with performance
> drugs! - to keep you on your feet ...
> Learned that when I was tested positive at work
> for class A amphetamine when never tried it ...
> after reading I found out that bechams and anadin
> are filled with it )
> 2 weeks into the bagger I think I can survive
> (Already made a cross over myself ...
> As I have a chest condition - life threatening
> TB... still standing but I'm poorly can't get out
> and if I can I don't want to go to spread the
> @#$%& ! )
> Food supplies on low
> Self-esteem on its lowest
> DWP takes it's time and asking tons of questions
> before any money comes in
> Got a sick note
> Cut out of the world and hope so far
> .
> .
> That's my symptoms
> My story
> Everything feels like a movie theme ...
> Stay home people
> Its not a nice feeling
> I'm a soldier who will fight till i die
> (My love has it ...
> My mum
> My dad ..)
> I feel tired
> So tired now
> It will end one way or another

It's been few days now ...
My other half still has temperature...
I haven't had any for few days ...
I am coughing a lot ... she doesn't
I've discovered that I'm getting my sense of smell back
Taste buds fully working again as the other day tried to stimulate it with chewing garlic and hot peppers .... couldn't taste a thing but my body rapidly began sweating which means that the body felt the heat of spices but my taste receptors couldn't!
Today I was making a sandwich with some spices etc and noticed that the food smelt off ...
That's when I realised that my senses are back
Then I've had a go on a bottle of perfumes...
Yes it works but I'd say 30%....
Still feel like shit on and off

Not only local builders ignoring distancing but also large firms and their warehouses. Argos store staff are redeployed into Sainsbury's stores but the Argos warehouses are stilled manned by staff plus agency staff. There is no social distancing in the warehouse as people have increased their online shopping dramatically and deliveries have become frantic. Argos staff have complained to their management who in turn have complained to senior management and have been more or less told to put up with it or be sacked. Delivery drivers for the most part have 16 hours pw contracts but have to do up to 25 deliveries per day without extra pay for increased hours.

There was something on TV last night about a couple of warehouses flouting the distancing rules.
One driver informed me that one of his deliveries this week was for a single lampshade - hardly a priority I would think.

Pugwash Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
Argos staff have complained to
> their management who in turn have complained to
> senior management and have been more or less told
> to put up with it or be sacked.

That's disgraceful

> One driver informed me that one of his deliveries
> this week was for a single lampshade - hardly a
> priority I would think.

But there has been no guidance about what you can or can't buy online?

We had some things delivered this week that would usually require a signature, but drivers are not doing that which is sensible. I agree with Sue. Online shopping is a good way to keep business going with minimal risk. Most people are at home to take in parcels the moment they are left on their doorsteps. And in theory,it is easier for factories and warehouses to operate social distancing than a shop which has public footfall. And we have to consider mental health too. Many people will be occupying their time with home improvements, which can include a new lampshade among other things. We don't have to stop everything to get through this.

yeknomyeknom Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There are 15 people, right now, queuing for their
> emergency fish and chips at Seamaster on a Forest
> Hill Road.
> I
> CAN
> NOT
> EVEN...

Yes, I know what you mean, it is a totally overrated chippy. I prefer the one opposite Forest Hill Station.

If your point is about social distancing I am sure that there is a conversation to be had about how this can best be enforced eg why is the chippy not doing more, can they be reported to the authorities and if so who? I doubt whether a minor rant on this site does a lot of good apart from getting things off your chest.

Great Mash report by the way tonight, talking about politics reversal. The swing towards socialist policies by the government whilst lefty liberals are calling for state interventions and martial law.