NRT indicates nicotine replacement therapy. Moderate to heavy smokers
is defined as 15 cigarettes/d or more. Relapse times were adjusted in a Cox
proportional hazards regression analysis for demographics and cigarette consumption
level a year earlier.

Figure 3. Relapse to Smoking in Moderate to
Heavy Smokers and Light Smokers According to Use of Any Pharmaceutical Aid
in 1999

Moderate to heavy smokers is defined as 15 cigarettes/d or more and
light smokers as less than 15 cigarettes/d. Any pharmaceutical aid indicates
nicotine replacement therapy or an antidepressant. Relapse times were adjusted
in a Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for demographics and cigarette
consumption level a year earlier.

Context Successful smoking cessation is a major public health goal. In controlled
clinical trials, nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and the antidepressant
bupropion have been shown to significantly increase cessation rates only for
moderate to heavy smokers (≥15 cigarettes/d). Nicotine replacement therapy
is heavily promoted to the general population by both the pharmaceutical industry
and tobacco control advocates.

Objective To examine trends in smoking cessation, pharmaceutical cessation aid
use, and success in cessation in the general California population.

Main Outcome Measures Rates of cessation attempts (≥1 day) among smokers in the last year,
use of pharmaceutical aids (mostly over-the-counter products since 1996),
and cessation success.

Results Between 1992 and 1999, cessation attempts among California smokers increased
61.4% (from 38.1% to 61.5%), and NRT use among quitters increased 50.5% (from
9.3% to 14.0%). A total of 17.2% of quitters used NRT, an antidepressant,
or both as an aid to cessation in 1999. In 1996 and 1999, the median duration
of aid use (14 days) was much less than recommended, and only about 20% of
users had adjuvant one-on-one or group behavioral counseling. Use of NRT increased
short-term cessation success in moderate to heavy smokers in each survey year.
However, a long-term cessation advantage was only observed before NRT became
widely available over-the-counter (August 1996). In 1999, no advantage for
pharmaceutical aid users was observed in either the short or long term for
the nearly 60% of California smokers classified as light smokers (<15 cigarettes/d).

Conclusion Since becoming available over the counter, NRT appears no longer effective
in increasing long-term successful cessation in California smokers.

Over one third of US smokers attempt cessation each year1- 5;
however, the success rate per attempt is low.2,6,7
Few smokers seek assistance for cessation,3,8,9
and those who do tend to be more dependent.3,9,10
During the 1990s, following clinical trials indicating efficacy, a variety
of pharmaceutical cessation aids became available.11- 19
Designed to lessen nicotine withdrawal symptoms (eg, anxiety, irritability,
intense craving), these aids were recommended as adjuvants to behavioral therapies.11- 14 In
the controlled-trial setting, with well-monitored protocols, nicotine replacement
therapy (NRT) and the antidepressant bupropion increased success for moderate
to heavy smokers (≥15 cigarettes/d) by 50% to 100%.11- 18
There is no consensus of a benefit for light smokers (<15 cigarettes/d).

In the early 1990s, we reported a possible population cessation advantage
for NRT, when prescribed and used together with counseling or self-help materials.10 Since then, the nicotine patch became available over-the-counter
in 1996, and the efficacy of bupropion was demonstrated in clinical trials.15,17,18 Pharmaceutical companies
have marketed these products extensively, both to physicians and the public.19 A pack-a-day cigarette habit costs about $150 for
6 weeks in California, nearly identical to the cost of the nicotine patch
but about half the cost of nicotine gum, if used as recommended. In some instances
(eg, California's Medi-Cal program), pharmaceutical cessation aids are supported
as a prescription benefit, reducing the cost disincentive for use.12,20- 22

We report population trends and effectiveness in NRT use by recent smokers
undergoing cessation in California from 1992 to 1999. In 1999, we examined
duration of aid use, if aid users would recommend these products to other
smokers, whether assistance in paying for the medication was associated with
longer use, and the use of adjuvant behavioral assistance. Finally, we searched
for evidence that, collectively, pharmaceutical aids increased successful
cessation among moderate to heavy and light smokers.

METHODS

Data Sources

The analyses for the present study focused on smokers in the previous
year from the 1992 (n = 5247), 1996 (n = 9725), and 1999 (n = 6412) California
Tobacco Surveys (CTS). The methodology for the CTS (large population surveys
undertaken since 1990) is described elsewhere.23- 25
Briefly, a random-digit-dialed telephone protocol enumerates household residents,
gathering demographic information and smoking status. An adult sample was
scheduled for interview on tobacco-related issues, with selection probability
related to smoking status. Completed interviews were obtained for 71.3% of
adults in 1992, 72.9% in 1996, and 68.4% in 1999. In all years, there were
slight differences in demographics between those selected and those who completed
interviews. Following standard practices, the CTS are weighted to make the
data representative of the California population in a 2-step procedure: for
the probability of respondent selection and for nonresponse, using ratio adjustment
to census data.23- 25
Duplicate estimates of California smoking prevalence from the US Bureau of
the Census in 1993, 1996, and 1999 are within 1 percentage point.26

Survey Items Analyzed

Survey questions were drawn, wherever possible, from previous national
surveys. Respondents were asked about current smoking status, whether they
smoked a year previously and how much, whether they had in the past year quit
intentionally for a day or longer, which is the standard definition of a meaningful
cessation attempt,27 how long they were off
cigarettes the last time they attempted cessation, and if they used a pharmaceutical
aid or had other assistance for their most recent attempt in the last year.
If so, they were asked how long they used the aid, whether they would recommend
it to a friend, and who paid for it. Following a validation study, only the
most recent cessation attempt was assessed.28
A smoker in the last year either smoked currently or a year previously. Cessation
duration for recent former smokers (12 months ago but not currently) was the
difference between the survey date and when they last smoked regularly. Average
daily consumption a year ago was computed by multiplying the number of days
smoked by the number of cigarettes smoked on those days and dividing the product
by 30 days.

Statistics

These population surveys were not exclusively designed to measure cessation
aid use by smokers; however, sample sizes were large enough to address effectiveness
of NRT use. All estimates were computed using sample weights23- 25
and are presented together with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Variance estimation
and statistical inference for these complex surveys used a jackknife procedure29 from the statistical package WesVarPC version 2.0
(Westat Inc, Rockville, Md).30

Because this is not a randomized study, individuals who choose to use
a pharmaceutical aid likely differ from nonusers. In addition to stratifying
for daily cigarette consumption (<15 or ≥15 cigarettes/d), we used Cox
proportional hazards regression analyses to examine the effect of pharmaceutical
aid use on duration of abstinence of the most recent cessation attempt in
the last year, adjusting for demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational
level) and reported cigarette consumption a year earlier. The Cox proportional
hazards regression model considers both those who relapsed from cessation
and those who quit at the time of the survey. Since it is unknown how long
those who were still in cessation when interviewed will remain abstinent,
their contribution to the analysis is censored to the duration observed. A
specially-written SAS version 6 program (SAS Institute, Cary, NC) derived
the appropriate jackknifed variance estimates for the regression coefficients
to determine whether any was significantly different from zero. We verified
the proportional hazards assumption for each predictor with the Grambsch and
Therneau31 procedure, available in the statistical
package S-plus version 2000 (MathSoft Inc, Cambridge, Mass).

RESULTS

Trends in Assistance Over Time

The weighted percentages (95% CI) of California smokers in the last
year with a cessation attempt lasting a day or longer were 38.1% (36.1%-40.1%)
in 1992, 56.0% (55.0%-57.0%) in 1996, and 61.5% (60.0%-63.0%) in 1999, an
increase of 61.4% in the 7-year period.

For smokers' most recent cessation attempts, overall assistance use
(self-help, counseling, NRT, or in 1999, an antidepressant) increased from
18.4% (16.0%-20.8%) in 1992 to 19.3% (18.0%-20.6%) in 1996 and to 22.1% (20.3%-23.9%)
in 1999; the increase from 1996 to 1999 was statistically significant (P = .01). Group counseling for the most recent attempt
was received by 2.9% (2.1%-3.7%) of those who made a cessation attempt in
1992, 2.1% (1.6%-2.6%) in 1996, and 2.3% (1.7%-2.9%) in 1999. One-on-one counseling
was received by 2.8% (1.6%-4.0%) of those who made a cessation attempt in
1992, 3.4% (2.7%-4.1%) in 1996, and 2.8% (2.2%-3.4%) in 1999. Self-help materials
were used by 7.9% (6.2%-9.6%) of those who made a cessation attempt in 1992,
10.1% (8.6%-11.6%) in 1996, and 11.2% (9.8%-12.6%) in 1999.

Nicotine replacement therapy use for the most recent cessation attempt
increased significantly from 9.3% (7.5%-11.1%) in 1992 to 12.7% (11.6%-13.8%)
in 1996, and to 14.0% (12.7%-15.3%) in 1999, an increase of 50.5% from 1992
to 1999 (P<.001). In 1999, the percentage of individuals
using any pharmaceutical aid was 17.2% (15.7%-18.7%). Because we assessed
only the most recent cessation attempt, our estimates of the annual number
of NRT users are conservative. In California, an estimated 116 209 smokers
used NRT in 1992, 337 142 in 1996, and 423 290 in 1999, representing
a 3.6-fold growth in NRT use.

Smokers could use multiple pharmaceutical-aid products. In 1999, 5.4%
(4.5%-6.3%) used nicotine gum, 10.7% (9.5%-11.9%) used a nicotine patch, no
respondent reported using a nicotine inhalant, and 5.2% (4.3%-6.1%) used an
antidepressant (bupropion, 3.2% [2.6%-3.8%]). Of NRT users, 14.6% (11.6%-17.6%)
also used an antidepressant.

Cigarette Consumption and Pharmaceutical Aid Use in 1999

Because of small sample sizes for specific aids, Figure 1 shows the percentage of quitters using any pharmaceutical
aid in each survey year, according to cigarette consumption a year previously.
In all years, aid use was low among those who made a cessation attempt who
smoked less than 5 cigarettes/d and increased markedly in each higher consumption
category. Between 1996 and 1999, aid use increased significantly in groups
consuming 5 to 9 cigarettes/d (P = .048), 10 to 14
cigarettes/d (P = .01), and 20 to 24 cigarettes/d
(P<.001). Of the additional 161 865 smokers
using a pharmaceutical aid in 1999 compared with 1996, 59 273 (37%) were
from the lighter smoking group for whom pharmaceutical aids are not currently
recommended.

Characteristics of Pharmaceutical Aid Use in 1999

Most smokers paid for NRT themselves, but some smokers' insurance plans
covered physician-prescribed antidepressants (Table 1). The vast majority of NRT users say they would recommend
it to a friend, but antidepressant users were less enthusiastic. Individuals
who were still in cessation when interviewed had a more favorable opinion
than relapsers.

Mean duration of NRT use in 1999 (28.2 days; 95% CI, 25.2-31.2) was
not statistically different from the 29.7 (21.8-37.6) days in 1992 or the
26.2 (22.5-29.9) days in 1996. Use duration was skewed and ranged widely;
median use was only 14 days. Of NRT users who remained abstinent after stopping
aid use, 12.5% (6.7%-18.3%) used the product more than 12 weeks. Nearly one
third (31.7% [27.4%-36.0%]) of NRT users relapsed and quit aid use simultaneously.
Approximately a quarter (23.3% [19.1%-27.5%]) continued NRT use after relapse
(median, 21 days; interquartile range, 7-42 days).

Duration of NRT use was related to payment mode (P = .02). Of smokers whose insurance completely covered NRT, 39.5%
(22.1%-56.9%) used it 6 weeks or longer. Of smokers who shared the expense,
44.3% (22.4%-66.2%) used it 6 weeks or longer, but for smokers who paid the
entire cost, only 21.8% (17.3%-26.3%) used NRT 6 weeks or longer. Nicotine
replacement therapy users reported more behavioral assistance than antidepressant
users, but both groups relied mostly on self-help materials.

Quitting Success

Cox proportional hazards regression analyses of cessation duration for
moderate to heavy smokers, adjusted for demographics and smoking level a year
previously, indicated a significant effect for NRT use (Figure 2) and smoking level for each year (P<.001
and P = .008 in 1992; P<.001
and P = .02 in 1996; and P
= .002 and P = .01 in 1999, respectively). However,
in contrast with 1992 and 1996, the effect in 1999 was only short-term; after
about 3 months, the curves are nearly identical. In all years, the curves
for those not using any pharmaceutical aids were nearly identical over the
entire range of cessation duration, and the curve for 1996 NRT users is between
the curves for 1992 and 1999 NRT users.

Figure 3 shows that in 1999,
when users of any aid are compared with nonusers, the short-term advantage
is present for the moderate to heavy smokers but not for light smokers. While
aid use and level of consumption were statistically significant (P<.001 and P = .01, respectively) in the
Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for the moderate to heavy smokers,
neither variable was significant in the light smokers.

COMMENT

Despite widespread promotion of pharmaceutical aids for cessation throughout
the 1990s, and an 85% increase in the percentage of quitters using any such
aid from 1992 to 1999, the percentage of California quitters using a pharmaceutical
aid in 1999 for their most recent cessation attempt was low (17.2%). Nonetheless,
the large increase in smokers making cessation attempts boosted the pharmaceutical
aid market more than 3-fold from 1992 to 1999. This increase occurred as the
percentage of the California smokers who are moderate to heavy daily smokers
decreased from 56.4% (54.7%-58.1%) in 1990 to 40.6% (38.9%-42.3%) in 1999,25 and reflected the successful recruitment of light
smokers, for whom evidence of a potential benefit is lacking.

In 1999, although collectively pharmaceutical aids helped moderate to
heavy smokers discontinue using cigarettes longer, they were not associated
with a clinically meaningful long-term improvement in successful cessation,
and no benefit was observed for light smokers. In 1992, NRT was prescribed
by physicians only, and physicians or pharmacists may have provided counseling
about product use. By mid-August 1996, NRT was widely available over-the-counter.32 Thus, individuals who made a cessation attempt, from
the 1996 CTS conducted in September through December who report on cessation
attempts any time during the previous year, may or may not have obtained their
NRT by prescription. Nonetheless, there appears to be some long-term benefit
that was not observed in 1999, when all NRT was obtained over-the-counter.

In 1999, only about half of California aid users managed to discontinue
smoking even for a day after they stopped using the aid. There was little
evidence that smokers used NRT as a long-term substitute for cigarette smoking.
Having insurance co-pay led to longer use, but only about 40% used NRT longer
than the recommended minimal period of 6 weeks.12,13
However, the loss of long-term effect cannot be completely due to short duration
of aid use, as mean duration was similar in all years.

This study adds to concerns that the efficacy of pharmaceutical aids
observed in clinical trials may not extend to effectiveness in the general
population.32,33 There are a number
of possible reasons for this mismatch. Trial participants may differ from
those who made a cessation attempt in the general population, particularly
with respect to motivation (willingness to tolerate the participant burden
involved). Not all trials included in the recent meta-analyses12,14- 16
used continuous abstinence as the outcome measure. In one study, the preferred
measure was abstinence for at least a week at 5 months,16
which could lead to artificially high cessation rates. Our study analyzed
the duration of smokers' most recent intentional cessation attempt in the
past year lasting a day or longer (the accepted definition of a serious cessation
attempt27), which allows the pattern of relapse
to be examined. Certainly, lack of adherence to recommended guidelines and
lack of adjuvant behavioral counseling among California smokers was also a
factor. Other studies of over-the-counter patch users documented similar problems,33- 36 and
some NRT trials that attempted to simulate an over-the-counter setting showed
an advantage,37- 39
but another did not.33 The present study highlights
the need for more research nationwide concerning barriers to more appropriate
use of NRT in the nonclinical setting. Finally, the use of bupropion, which
could not be evaluated separately in this study because of small sample size,
requires evaluation in the nonclinical setting.