Was going to take our nearly 60 percent success rate against the spread the past two years and run, but the bosses said, "Don't slow your roll, baby." Or something to that effect. Daddy needs a new pair of shoes ...

Sunday

49ers (-5) at Cowboys: If S.F. does play Ray McDonald, know this: Not all the players will be on board (at least privately). This is a big-time distraction. But Dallas' defense really stinks and Frank Gore will save the day. 49ERS

Raiders at Jets (-5.5): Rookie QB on the road against a Rex Ryan defense. And the Jets are tough against the run. Nothing else matters in this one, plus the Raiders' new defense will need time to gel. JETS

Saints (-3) at Falcons: New Orleans is our Super Bowl pick, and that outweighs Julio Jones being back for Atlanta. These games are always close, but Drew Brees gets it going in the right direction. SAINTS

Vikings at Rams (-3.5): So ... St. Louis is done after Sam Bradford got hurt, huh? That makes no sense. RAMS

Browns at Steelers (-6.5): The QB handling has been a mess, but it doesn't matter whether Brian Hoyer or Johnny Football or Brian Sipe is playing for Cleveland on Sunday. The best unit on the field will be Cleveland's defense. BROWNS

Bengals at Ravens (-2): When's the last time anybody called Joe Flacco an elite QB? It's been too long, I say. Flacco outperforms newly richer Andy Dalton for the home win. RAVENS

Bills at Bears (-7): Buffalo might not be very good. Like, really bad. But so is the Bears' defense, and the back door is wide open. BILLS

Washington at Texans (-3): Robert Griffin III hasn't played well in a really long time, and the coach was hired because he kind of looks like Jon Gruden. Also, this is a big bounce-back year for Houston. TEXANS

Titans at Chiefs (-3.5): No way a team looks past its season opener against a boring team that starts Shonn Greene at RB and thinks about the Broncos coming up next. No way Kansas City does that. No ... TITANS

Patriots (-5) at Dolphins: Tom Brady, champion QB still or an overrated hair model? Discuss. No, he's still pretty good, TD machine Rob Gronkowski is back, and they will stay cool in the Miami sun. PATRIOTS

Panthers at Buccaneers (-2): Don't love this one. But Cam Newton is banged up and his offensive line is going to have trouble protecting him. BUCS