Our Methodology

Source of meteorological data

ECMWF high resolution model is presently the best meteorological model which covers all Europe. It is updated every 6 hours and combines information from different national centers in Europe. Covered domain goes in longitude from 12°W to 40.5°E and in latitude from 30°N to 60°N. The horizontal resolution is 0.125° (about 12.5km). The vertical resolution is 25 levels unevenly distributed, increasingly flat with altitude, from the soil to 100 hPa.

The calculation of the weekly activity of the previous week is based on the average of all readings of that week.

Biotope Integration

In order to improve existing maps by taking into account the influence of the biotope with more accuracy, static parasite suitability maps have been constructed by experts in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). For that purpose, LANMAP has been used. It is a landscape classification of Pan-Europe with 4 hierachical levels; using digital data on climate, altitude, parent material and land use as determinant factors. More precisely, the Climatic European Landscape Classification Layer has been used. It defines the climates encountered over Europe into 15 climate categories. In the context of Fleatickrisk, these categories have been allocated to 4 biotope classes from the least to the most suitable for each tick species. A weighting has been attributed to each class for the calculation of activity and density indices.

Biotope weight maps have been computed on the meteorological grids. The biological activity is then built from:

Matrices of activity for ticks and fleas

Index 0 does not mean the death of the parasite, only a diapause (dormancy).

Activity matrix of Ixodes ricinus

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Tick adapted to cold and humid climate, forest tick with a peak of activity at the beginning of spring, decrease in summer, and some activity again at fall.

Temperature

<5°C

5°-10°

10°-15°

15°-20°

20°-25°

25°-30°

30°-35°

>35°

Hygrometry

< 40%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

40-50

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

50-60

0

0

10

20

10

0

0

0

60-70

0

10

30

40

40

10

0

0

70-80

0

40

80

80

60

20

0

0

80-90

0

60

100

100

70

50

0

0

>90

0

80

100

100

80

50

0

0

Activity matrix of Dermacentor reticulatus

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Tick adapted to temperate climate, susceptible to dry conditions. Present in humid areas, with vegetation (even open). Activity starting at the end of spring, continuing in summer if not too dry, second peak at fall.

Activity matrix of Ctenocephalides felis outdoors

Flea life cycle never ends with the possibility to run indoors. The outdoor activity allows an exponential increase in flea population during the warm season.

Temperature

<10°C

10°-15°

15°-20°

20°-25°

25°-30°

30°-35°

>35°

Hygrometry

< 40%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

40-50

0

0

0

10

10

0

0

50-60

0

0

10

20

20

10

0

60-70

0

0

30

40

40

20

0

70-80

0

0

30

100

80

30

0

80-90

0

0

40

100

100

50

10

>90

0

0

40

100

100

60

10

Activity matrix of PHLEBOTOMUS perniciosus

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Sandflies are adapted to warm climate. We can consider that they will find humidity in wall crevices and in trees even under dry conditions.

Temperature

<20°C

20°-25°

25°-30°

30°-35°

35°-40°

40°-45°

>45°

Hygrometry

< 20%

0

0

10

20

10

0

0

20-40

0

20

40

60

40

0

0

40-50

0

40

80

80

60

20

0

50-60

0

60

100

100

80

20

0

60-70

0

80

100

100

80

40

0

70-80

0

80

100

100

100

40

0

>90

0

100

100

100

100

60

0

Activity matrix of Culex pipiens (mosquitoes)

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Temperature

<20°C

20°-25°

25°-30°

30°-35°

35°-40°

40°-45°

>45°

Hygrometry

< 20%

0

0

10

20

10

0

0

20-40

0

20

40

60

40

0

0

40-50

0

40

80

80

60

20

0

50-60

0

60

100

100

80

20

0

60-70

0

80

100

100

80

40

0

70-80

0

80

100

100

100

40

0

>90

0

100

100

100

100

60

0

N.B. Average temperature of the daylight (night not included): 12h, 18h, 24h

Wind: 0 above 5 (Beaufort scale) I.e The model indicates the potential that fleas have for multiplying and living in outdoor environments. It definitively does not refer to indoor environments (houses, flats etc). As a result, the absence of activity in winter refers only to gardens, undergrowth, unheated barns etc, since the lifecycle of fleas does not end in heated environments (even if it is set at a temperature of 19°C~22°C).

Once all the data, adjustments and biological matrices have been compiled, two indices are obtained.

Activity index

Density index

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