Fewer than 80 points may be required to win the Premier League this season and
Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger suggests the surprise results so far
simply shows how much the quality has gone up

For those Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, or even Arsenal supporters, preparing to rip up betting slips predicting a title success for their clubs this season following a weekend of reality checks, it may be worth allowing history to offer some consolation.

Then again, it may also simply reaffirm that, when no team are capable of escaping the pack in the autumn, it usually leads to Manchester United winning the title.

Having endured their worst start to a Premier League season, one that has included a 4-1 humiliation against City and a first defeat at home against West Bromwich Albion since the 1970s, United lie just five points adrift of leaders Arsenal following their 1-0 victory against Arsène Wenger’s team at Old Trafford.

City, many observers’ favourites for the title, sit in eighth, six points adrift of Arsenal, after extending their woeful away form with a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland on Sunday. And Chelsea appear anything but special, following the second coming of the Special One, as they lurch inconsistently into fourth position after 11 games under Jose Mourinho.

But this is where history offers succour to those teams struggling to find their feet in what is the most closely fought title race in more than a decade: the numbers show that a points deficit now counts for little in May.

At this stage of November in the inaugural Premier League campaign of 1992-93, United lay marooned in 10th position, nine points behind leaders Norwich City having endured four defeats. By the end of the month, Alex Ferguson had lured Eric Cantona from Leeds United to Old Trafford and United’s fightback, which resulted in a 10-point winning margin at the end of the season, had been ignited.

Three years later, a six-point November deficit while chasing leaders Newcastle was overturned to win the league by four points. United also fought back from six points behind the following November to win the league at the end of that campaign by seven points.

During his recent speaking tour following the release of his autobiography, Ferguson said that the competitive nature of the race so far this season suggested that fewer than 80 points would be required to win the league.

United’s 75-point haul in 1996-97 remains the lowest winning total, yet two of the closest title races of the Premier League era – 1997-98 and 1998-99 – were won with 78 and 79 points respectively. In 1999, cham­pions United, runners-up Arsenal and third-placed Chelsea were separated by four points and this season could yet replicate that campaign.

Arsenal go into the international break in pole position, despite the defeat at Old Trafford, and Wenger believes the six points separating top from eighth highlights the strength, rather than weakness, of the league.

“What we have learned is not only that Manchester United could beat Arsenal, but everybody can beat everybody in this Premier League,” Wenger said.

“Sunderland beat Man City and that shows you how much excitement we will have until the end of the season. You have a team like Southampton who are close to the top and they have three players in the England squad. Luke Shaw is not far away, they say [Nathaniel] Clyne is not far, so maybe the whole quality of the Premier League has gone up.

“I don’t think players like Robin van Persie are not as good as last season or two seasons ago. Maybe the whole quality has gone up.”

City perhaps support Wenger’s argument. Manuel Pellegrini’s team, who have a 100 per cent record at home, have lost on their travels to Cardiff, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland. Chelsea aside, the 2011-12 champions would have been expected to win, rather than lose, those fixtures and City defender Pablo Zabaleta concedes that further slips will prove costly.

“There is a long way to go and we have many games to the end, but when you lose points like that, it will be really difficult to fight for the title,” Zabaleta said. “We are so disappointed. We had a great chance to reach third position.”

United’s victory against Arsenal proved crucial for their hopes of retaining the title, with a five-point deficit much less daunting than the 11-point gap a defeat would have ensured. And defender Phil Jones hinted at the resolve within David Moyes’s squad, and ability to draw on history, by insisting United’s win was a response to their doubters.

“It proves that when people doubt us, we are more than capable of standing up for ourselves and proving to people that is why we were champions last season,” Jones said.

“People want us to fail because we have won the league so many times. Everyone hates the best clubs, it is as simple as that. We enjoy that. We relish the test we get thrown at us week in, week out.”

While United have the track record, history does not always fall on their side, and Arsenal can take confidence from the outcome of the title race when it was even tighter than now at this stage of the season. After 11 games of the 2001-02 campaign, four points separated leaders Aston Villa from Spurs in eighth place.

Arsenal? They ended the season as champions, seven points clear of runners-up Liverpool. So despite the stumbles, false starts and coupon-busting results, it would be foolish to discount any contenders just yet.