Stanley Cup 2017, I: Rivalries, Rivalries Everywhere (Sort Of)

What a difference a year makes, eh? One year ago I was dumbfounded by the lack of Canadian teams in the playoffs. Flash forward to today, where we will see five for the first time since… 2015. So it’s not that unusual (aside: back in the 1980s when there were seven Canadian teams, sixteen playoff teams and twenty-one teams in the league, it was exceptionally common), however, some of the featured teams sure are abnormal. We’ve got Toronto back in, having last made the dance in 2013 and for only the second time since 2004. But of course the real story is the end of the Edmonton Oilers’ decade long drought, having last appeared in the 2006 Stanley Cup Final. This is also the first time since then that both Calgary and Edmonton are in the playoffs together.

Canada aside, we’ve got a lot of fresh blood in the tournament this year, which is always a welcome sight. Most teams had only missed a year or two in their droughts. On the other hand, those that are returning have been, for the most part, returning for awhile. And, unfortunately for my entertainment, the best odds for winning the Cup rest with those teams that have won most recently. Fun.

Also, what’s up Detroit? Fancy not seeing you here. Last time you missed, I was just a baby. Weird.

I have a few issues with the current playoff format, some I get into below. I cannot, however, fault the fact that we’ve got decent rivalries out the wazoo this first round. Some have been long dormant; others are just budding. There are some match-ups I wouldn’t really consider rivalries, but then I look a little closer, and sure enough, there’s playoff history in all series but one* (Thanks for failing to secure us of a Battle of Ontario, Toronto; and the Battles of Alberta and California, L.A.). It’s quite incredible, really. The first round is always the best of the playoffs, and I think we’re in for a treat again this year.

Now, to the bracket. Will I pick one of the above unnamed favorites to win the Cup? I suppose we don’t have to wait to see:

There’s an old saying in D.C. — I know it’s in Texas, probably in D.C. — that says, fool me once, shame on… shame on you. Fool me… you can’t get fooled again!

I’m a little concerned that I picked the Blues to come out of the West. It’s foolish to always pick favorites because they rarely make it to the end together, so I’ve got a 2 and a 3 seed in the mix. Will this work? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot.

Stats herein (Power Play and Penalty Kill percentages, 5v5 Score-Adjusted Corsi [Shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots, a decent measure of possession] & PDO [save percentage + shooting percentage, a decent measure of luck]) are measured from the trade deadline, March 1st, 2017, until the end of the regular season. This is done in order to portray a more representative sample as teams trend toward their playoff forms. All numbers are taken from NHL.com, hockey-reference.com, and Corsica.

A1. Montréal Canadiens vs M4. New York Rangers: For the first time since the new playoff format debuted in 2014, the Eastern conference wildcards flip divisions. I understand that it’s based on having the top team in the conference play the lower seeded wildcard (1 vs 8, more or less), but couldn’t they just put in a provision that if there is one wildcard team per division, they will play in that division’s bracket? Seems reasonable, right? We could have had Washington playing New York, and Montréal hosting Toronto! Instead we have Boston playing for the Metropolitan Division championship, and New York competing for the Atlantic. Okay.

But we’re stuck with this, and it’s not so bad. Back in 2014, these two met in the Eastern Conference Final, which was a wild series featuring blowouts, barnburners, and an incident in which Chris Kreider took out Carey Price, torpedoing the Habs chances at a Cup Final berth. Price has returned to being possibly the best goalie in the world (though there’s competition), and the Canadiens look very, very hot right now.

The New York Rangers are tough to grasp. I have no faith in them. Like at all. They’re sitting above 100 points for the third straight season and are that far removed from a Presidents’ Trophy, but for some reason they’re one of those teams that never seems like a playoff threat. That’s compounded by the fact that their window appears to be rapidly closing. That said, at one point this season, they were putting up nearly five goals a game, so there’s potential to ramp back into unsustainable territory. I’m not sure. I haven’t watched enough Rangers games to feel confident in my pick, but here goes: Canadiens in five. I’m probably wrong to make the series this short, but between New York and Montréal this season, the Habs win on almost every category.

A2. Ottawa Senators vs A3. Boston Bruins: Fun fact: this is only the second playoff meeting between the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins. What makes this fact fun? The previous meeting was in the 1927 Stanley Cup Final, where the original Senators franchise defeated the Bruins two wins to zero in a four-game series. Yeah, it was weird back then. I don’t really think this counts as playoff history, but it’s more fun to think this rivalry goes back 90 years. These two are, of course, division rivals, and have been every year since the Sens joined the league in 1993, so there’s definitely familiarity and animosity. Perhaps this series will escalate their relationship into a rare new battle within the already tense Atlantic division’s northern teams? I honestly don’t know. Ottawa doesn’t seem like that pugnacious of a team (though they still employ Chris Neil for some reason), and Boston is in the middle of a transition, having missed the last two playoffs after winning the 2014 Presidents’ Trophy.

The Bruins are weird. They’ve been middling under a bizarre new GM, they fired their veteran Cup-winning coach midseason, and, well, their recent underlying numbers are scary good. Meanwhile, the Senators are grappling with a crippled defense core, though Erik Karlsson is likely to power his way through whatever injury he’s suffering. Ottawa is an up and down streaky team, currently on the upswing. That said, their negative goal differential sticks out like a sore thumb. I don’t have any love for either of these teams as a Sabres fan, so it pains me to make this pick regardless. My gut says Bruins in six.

M1. Washington Capitals vs A4. Toronto Maple Leafs: Let’s talk about Toronto and Washington. Of the sixteen playoff teams, only these two haven’t met in the playoffs in their history, if you count the aforementioned ancient Boston and Ottawa series. There’s no real narrative here. The Capitals are the beast of the east, and have been in the upper echelon in the league for decade (excusing a minor blip in 2014), but for some reason cannot seem to get out of the second round in its current iteration. Alexander Ovechkin has yet to even play for a Conference championship, let alone a Cup. These Caps, though. Something about them feels different. They’re so good, I find it hard to believe their playoff mediocrity can continue.

For now, they’ve drawn the Toronto Maple Leafs, the lower seeded wildcard team crossing over from the Atlantic. The Leafs finished in last place last year, and thanks to Lady Luck, won the right to draft Auston Matthews, a rookie superstar with professional experience in the Swiss National League A, who has already notched a 40-goal season. Combined with the support of William Nylander and Mitch Marner, the Leafs have a formidable trio of rookie talent up front. They’re going to be monsters for years to come. They are an exceptionally young team; most of their non-veterans were on the Marlies just last year. I don’t expect much from them in the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, they’re a good team. I just think Toronto is just happy to be there again, having wildly exceeded expectations. Washington is going to deliver a beatdown; one that will probably teach the kids exactly what they need to win down the road. Capitals in five. I expect this to be a relatively tame, but fast and skilled series. It should be fun to watch, and the arena environments in both cities will be rocking.

You know, this is one of those times it would be amazing to have a color versus color match-up on the ice. Red versus blue in buildings full of those colors in the stands is a sight to behold.

M2. Pittsburgh Penguins vs M3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Awwwwww yes! This is easily my favorite up-and-coming rivalry, and luckily for the world, this is a revenge meeting for the Penguins’ dispatching of the Blue Jackets back in 2014. In the middle of the season, the Jackets were lighting the league on fire with their win streak, while the Penguins were flying high after winning the Cup last year. The Blue Jackets are a tough team to evaluate. This year feels abnormal, given their basement finish last year, as well as their record of mediocrity since their inception. However, this is far and away their best season as a franchise and it’s hard not to think they’ve finally arrived.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is as good as ever, and are in a decent position to repeat as champions — a feat still never accomplished in the cap era, though they were one of the two teams involved in the first repeat Final appearance. I’m firmly on the Blue Jackets bandwagon. I want them to finally win a round so badly, and to do it against the Pens would be satisfying (which is similar to the sentiment I had in 2014). It’s just… they’re the Penguins, man. With Detroit out of the picture, they hold the longest playoff streak and have two Cups during that time. It would be unwise to bet against them, even as my heart begs me to. Penguins in seven. Here’s hoping it goes the distance. It’s a damn shame one of these two has to go home after one round, so let’s make it last.

C1. Chicago Blackhawks vs C4. Nashville Predators: Well look at this. The Central isn’t the maelstrom it was just a few years ago, but the Hawks somehow cannot seem to find the end of their ascendancy. They’ve been in the playoffs since 2009, have won three Cups, and show absolutely no sign of slowing down, despite conventional wisdom saying that it’s been inevitable for some time. And it sucks, because I don’t want to have to pick them to win all the time, but they’re always the favorite and for good reason. They’re healthy, they still have their core, and they’re the freakin’ Chicago Blackhawks.

And in this corner, the Nashville Predators, who’ve turned themselves into a playoff team more often than not. Unlike the Hawks, the Preds had high expectations coming into the season in the aftermath of the P.K. Subban trade. After a stumble out of the gate, they cemented themselves into a playoff spot and, it was too close, but they stayed in the Central Division to match with the Hawks. These two haven’t played too often in the playoffs, having met twice in the last seven years; when they do, the Hawks win the series and then they win the Cup. So, uh, that’s not quite a trend yet. Nashville is intriguing because they seem to love to move around promising assets in exchange for similar levels of talent, resulting in seemingly little gain or loss. Shea Weber was the foundation of the franchise, yet Subban has filled in nicely in his stead. I would like to see how the top performers of last year’s run do — looking at you Colin Wilson. If they’re in the form they showed against the Sharks, they’re in good shape. If not, well, it will end badly. I’m going with the Blackhawks in five. The Preds can’t repel firepower of this magnitude.

C2. Minnesota Wild vs C3. St. Louis Blues: For our second budding Central rivalrly, we have these two franchises. They’ve been consistently overshadowed by the Blackhawks throughout the last few years, but recently there have been potential signs of a changing tide. The Blues slayed the demon and advanced to the Western Conference Final last year. This year, they fired their coach and, inexplicably, have been riding that to an incredible hot streak at season’s end. A team some thought had a closed window has roared back into the playoff picture and, despite being a three-seed, I believe is the favorite here. Back in 2015, the division champion Blues met the Wild and were upset in an unthinkable six-game series. I have a hard time believing they will let this happen again.

In Minnesota, it’s been a roller coaster all season. This team had a twelve game winning streak in December, broken only by the Columbus Blue Jackets, who were feeding a (longer) streak of their own. But then they couldn’t win, allowing the Hawks to steal the division and set up a more difficult path for the Wild. Bruce Boudreau is a fascinating playoff coach. His tenure in Washington was marred by playoff disappointment; it went similarly in Anaheim, though he made it a bit farther. Minnesota, somehow, has held by far the best possession numbers since February, and their percentages suggest there is still room for improvement. That’s a nice thought, but it’s also the Wild. I don’t expect anything from them, really. They’re one of the few teams I would love to see get a Cup; it just doesn’t seems like they have “it.” Basically, Rangers West. Does that make sense?

I think St. Louis is rolling, and the only way for Minnesota to win is for the series to go fewer than seven. Blues in six.

P1. Anaheim Ducks vs P4. Calgary Flames: Another first for the new playoff system: the Pacific Division has finally sent a wild card team, and thankfully, unlike what happened above, they remain in their rightful bracket. However, thanks to the Ducks being complete spoilers, we’re left with a pair of semi-rivalries in the Pacific instead of two full blown wars. It’s not the worst thing: Anaheim and Calgary met only two years ago in the Division Finals, with Anaheim winning in five.

Calgary has had incredibly bad luck against the Ducks. Their last win at Honda Center was in the 2006 playoffs — when the arena was known as Arrowhead Pond and the Ducks were Mighty — and their regular season drought goes back to 2004. So, basically, the Flames are facing an impossible task not having home ice in this series.

Anaheim this season won their fifth straight division title, albeit under a new (old) coach many expected to negatively affect their standing. Funny that: Randy Carlyle is viewed as an old-school grit and truculence style coach, yet the possession numbers show the Ducks in the top 25% of the league. With a sky-high PDO since the deadline, it’s possible they’re over-performing, so I expect only a round or two out of them before they normalize (and are eliminated). The Flames are a speedy young team with streaky goaltending; they’ll pose a decent challenge to the stalwart Ducks, but I’m not sure they’re good enough to overcome the difference in skill and depth. Ducks in six. Bonus prediction: the Flames will win one game at Honda Center.

P2. Edmonton Oilers vs P3. San Jose Sharks: On the flipside of the split Battles of Alberta and California, we have this. Like Anaheim and Calgary, these two have history dating back to 2006, where the underdog Oilers defeated the Sharks in the second round on their way to the Cup Final. In fact, both of these teams’ most recent appearances in the playoffs were losing in the Cup Final! Isn’t that mildly interesting?

Now here’s where I’m at: the Sharks recently have looked terrible. They’re tired, banged up, and listless. I may have to attribute this in part to the long season they played a year ago, but given teams like Chicago’s and Los Angeles’ recent winning ways, I’m not sure that’s the whole story. In short, the Sharks should be better, but they’re not.

Meanwhile, the Oilers continue to impress. It hurts watching the team who stole your lottery destiny succeed, especially when that team also employs Milan Lucic. What doesn’t hurt is how fun the Oilers are. Connor McDavid is amazing; his foot speed and stickhandling abilities are unmatched, and he’s only 20 years old. I am supremely jealous. With the defense looking decent-ish and the goaltending of Cam Talbot adding much needed stability on the backend, the Oilers may just go deep this year. Assuming the Sharks haven’t suddenly traded for a bizarro-tandem of Andrew Ladd and Marc-Andre Bergeron…

In the battle of San Jose and Edmonton, I think youth trumps age, and freshness beats fatigue. Oilers in five. I really want a Cup for Thornton and Marleau, but I have to say I wouldn’t be sad to see this “upset” happen. The Sharks’ play of late has me super down on them, I guess.

I like this first round. A lot of fresh faces. Lots of colors. Edmonton recently changed their primary jersey to orange, which is different. Speaking of Canadian teams, none of the five here play each other, so it’s possible we see five left standing among the final eight. That would be something. And, as usual, aside from the Sharks, my rooting interest lies with the teams who’ve never won before. Any of them could win a Cup and I’d be okay with that. Even Ottawa. I know, weird.

Would you look at that. I updated my logo blocks again. They’re featured in more detail above and the whole catalog is available on my Colors page. This time the change is less subtle, and adds much needed clarity and modernization, as well as tweaks that make the logos look more physical. That, and all of the colors are completely 100% perfect. I’m looking forward to next season when Adidas changes everyone’s jersey designs and I get to do it all over again.