DL didn't fix Kazmir

There is one reason I think Scott Kazmir might not be a total loss the rest of the season: Mike Scioscia is smarter than me, and he thinks Kazmir won't be a total loss the rest of the season. Here's our conversation after Kazmir's start against the Blue Jays last Friday:

Me: "To me, that looked like a step back. The fastball velocity was down (from his five-inning return from the DL, against Detroit, a week earlier). The Blue Jays are a swing-and-miss team, and he didn't get many swings and misses."

Scioscia: "I will say as far as the crispness of the fastball he maybe had a little more life in Detroit, but there was no drop off which would cause any concern at all. His fastball last night was good. His fastball in Detroit was really terrific. I definitely didn't think it was a step back. ... When he's doing his best he's not a strikeout guy. I'm talking about right now, not going back to 2006. Right now he's much better getting early contact, getting in the zone, getting mis-hit flyballs. I don't think we're going to look at strikeouts to see if he's effective. That's a big (Blue Jays) offense over there. His command was terrific, had good command on his fastball and threw some really tight sliders which was encouraging. That pitch is kind of reappearing at times."

OK, so that's the reason to have hope. Scioscia > Me, and Scioscia

But other than that, Kazmir looks (to me) like the same pitcher who had to go on the DL after giving up 13 runs. Putting aside the Detroit game, when he knew he would only throw five innings, and when he did look quite good, we have two starts:

Toronto: 6 innings, 2 earned runs

Boston: 5 innings, 4 earned runs

One good start, one bad, except that the peripherals say he was bad in both: Against Toronto, three strikeouts, three walks, and only four grounders, 14 flies. In Boston, two strikeouts, three walks, seven grounders, 13 flies and two home runs. His line drive rate -- 24 percent -- was awful in the two games, too.

Against Toronto, he got five swinging strikes in six innings. (Francisco Rodriguez came in to relieve him and got five swinging strikes in one inning.) Against Boston, he got four swinging strikes, in 97 pitches. That's 4 percent. When Kazmir was good -- I'm not talking 2006, I'm just talking 2008 -- he got swinging strikes 12 percent of the time. His fastball used to be 13 mph faster than his changeup. In his two starts post-DL, it's been 10.5 mph faster. His strikes on the pitch dropped from 58 percent to 44 percent.

So here's the thing: You can get by with walking a lot of guys, as long as you also strike a lot of guys out. You can get by without striking anybody out, as long as you keep the ball on the ground. You can survive in the air, as long as you're not walking a bunch of guys in front of the inevitable home run. You see where this is going? Kazmir does none of these things.

Kazmir's a mess right now, same as he was when he went on the DL. I have no solution for this problem.

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