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NFL Week 8 ATS Picks: Odds and Predictions

Submitted by Sack on Thu, 10/26/2017 - 13:45

About midway in the NFL regular season, many teams get ready for a bye week which means it gets harder to pick against the spread winners. With fewer games to focus on and teams getting better, the spreads get tighter and you can end up picking tricks instead of treats.

But, don’t be scared off, because I have a batch of Week 8 ATS picks for you to snatch before the sharp players gobble up the soft lines.

Cleveland hasn’t been able to win one game yet; even when they came close on a couple of opportunities, they fell short of the mark.

And, it’s evident that they’re not about to solve their problems at the quarterback position either, something which will get worse because of tackle Joe Thomas’ injury.

The Vikings’ defense has to be licking their chops because they can smell the blood already. Not only does Minnesota 6th in sacks, they’re also a top-five defense in terms of total yards (283 per game), rushing yards (77) and points (17) allowed per game.

Pick: This is a lock; take the Vikings at -9.5.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions

When: October 29, 2017, 8:30 PM ET

Where: Ford Field

Spread: Steelers -3

Over/Under: 45

Moneyline: Steelers -150 vs Lions +130

Analysis: The Lions enter this game as the 3-point home underdogs. Considering the Vikings have won eight of the past nine games against the Lions, however, means there’s probably something hiding under the spread.

Detroit is coming off of its bye trailing a two-game losing streak. Though the defense started off the season well with four quality games, they seem to have fallen off the path, losing to Carolina, 27-24, and then to the Saints, 52-38. The Lions had five turnovers against the Saints and gave up three defensive touchdowns from those.

While the rest week probably favors Matthew Stafford, who was playing injured against the Saints, I’m not certain how Detroit’s offense will perform given that his top target, Golden Tate, is injured and will not play in this game.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are probably counting on Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown to cut up the Lions’ defense. Pittsburgh has won two straight and is in control of the AFC North.

The Steelers are also 11-0 when Bell rushes at least 25 times. And, you can count on the Steelers handing the ball to Bell often. I don’t think the Lions have anyone to stop him.

Pick: Steelers win and cover.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

When: October 26, 2017, 8:25 PM ET

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

Spread: Ravens -3

Over/Under: 37

Moneyline: Ravens -155 vs Dolphins +135

Analysis: The Dolphins haven’t really done well against the Ravens. In fact, Baltimore has won six of the past seven games against the Dolphins, covering the spread in all seven matches.

However, the Ravens are struggling at the moment, losing four games of their past five, including their last game this past Sunday against Minnesota.

Joe Flacco, one a Super Bowl MVP, isn’t having an easy time this year. He doesn’t have much support from his offensive line which leaves him open to being sacked (including five against the Vikings). Flacco, in fact, is rated at the bottom along with the likes of Browns QB DeShone Kizer.

Among qualified quarterbacks, Flacco is last in the NFL in passing yards per game (167.2) and 28th in ESPN's Total QBR. In six games, he is 116 of 185 (62.7 percent) for 1,003 yards, four touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s also 32-32 since 2013, the season after the Ravens’ win in Super Bowl XLVII.

It doesn’t get better when his top receivers, Jeremy Maclin and Breshad Perriman will be out of this game due to injury.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are somewhat floating above the water despite quarterback problems of their own.

Miami, who turned to Jay Cutler because of Ryan Tannehill’s injury, now have turned to backup Matt Moore because of Cutler’s injury.

While is arguable to compare Moore to Flacco on the basis of what either player has achieved, the fact of the matter is that Moore is playing much better at this time.

And, even if the Dolphins can’t exploit the air attack, they can also turn to the ground with Jay Ajayi leading the way against a relatively weak run defense.

Pick: This will be an upset; notch one for the Dolphins.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

When: October 29, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Spread: Saints -9

Over/Under: 47.5

Moneyline: Saints -420 vs Bears +330

Analysis: The Saints have their destiny in their hands now that the Falcons and Bucs have lost three straight games, while they’ve notched four straight wins.

New Orleans had a shaky start of season, with the defense being pushed around like a kid through their first two games. However, they’ve since pushed back and are now the talk of the many.

The Saints’ offense is also improved with Drew Brees finally getting help via the run game with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Ingram’s run for 219 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games.

Meanwhile, the Bears have moved rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to start, which also falls in line with how conservatively Chicago has been playing. Trubisky has attempted just 23 pass attempts in his last two games which ended in Chicago wins.

Now, against a defense like that of New Orleans’, it’s hard to see how it’ll play out, however, I don’t expect the Saints to give an inch away at the Super Dome.

Pick: Count on the Saints’ defense shutting down the Bears. The Saints will win and cover.

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