Thursday, July 11, 2013

US joins 10-GW solar PV club

The United States now has more than 10 gigawatts (GW) of installed solar PV capacity, joining Germany, Italy, and China — and it's just getting warmed up, according to new calculations from NPD SolarBuzz. And watch for the next 10-GW Club member that's fast approaching.

Solar PV installations in the U.S. totaled 1.8 GW through the first six months of 2013. That isn't quite at the midpoint of SolarBuzz's forecasted 4.3 GW for the entire year, but that's still the expectation because the majority of the U.S. solar market should be realized in the second half of the year.

With the 10-GW milestone in hand, the U.S. solar PV market isn't looking back. SolarBuzz expects the market to hit 17 GW by the end of 2014, representing 80 percent growth over 18 months.

What's driving the U.S. solar market

Individual state support schemes

U.S. residential solar demand continues to surge, and third-party-owned solar residential in particular

System pricing declines, especially driving the utility segment

System price-points for utility-scale solar at $2.14/W and residential systems at $4.93/W

Worldwide outlook

Worldwide solar PV demand reached 15 GW through the first six months of this year, roughly a 9% increase from a year ago, and cumulative solar PV installations are about 116.5 GW, according to SolarBuzz. In each scenario, more than 60% comes from four countries: Germany, China, Japan, and the U.S.

In cumulative capacity only Japan is close to them, and Spain and France are distant at around 4.5 GW and 4 GW respectively. In the second half of this year, China and Japan should account for nearly half of the solar PV demand all by themselves.

Japan, which is having a stellar 2013 for solar PV, is catching up fast behind the U.S. in solar PV capacity and could top 10 GW cumulative in the next couple of months.

What's driving the Japanese market these days is the non-residential feed-in tariff, which is helping the utility segment really take off.