Vanity Fair's Official Oscar Ballot: Who We Think Will Win

Happy Oscar Ballots Due Day! Like any dedicated Academy member or devoted movie lover, you've undoubtedly seen each and every one of this year's nominated Oscar films and are prepared to knowledgeably fill out your ballot before today's five p.m. P.S.T. cut-off. (And if you haven't seen each film, you've at least followed the cutthroat campaign trail closely enough to cast your votes based on who gives the best satellite home tours, who gifts the best mini-ukeleles; and whose likeness appeared on the most wooden dolls this awards season.) Per Vanity Fair tradition, we invite you to fill out our glossy, digital ballot, which allows you to enter pools, share with Facebook friends with whom you would never otherwise communicate, and best of all, monitor real-time results on our sleek leaderboard. Our official picks for the 84th Annual Academy Awards, from Hollywood blogger Julie Miller and with commentary by film critic Paul Mazursky, follow. They can also be viewed on the app.

Best Picture:The Artist

__Julie Miller:__Michel Hazanavicius's ode to Old Hollywood has three major advantages over its competition going into this Sunday's race: Its charming, black and white formula makes it an original best-picture choice; Oscar campaign mastermind Harvey Weinstein orchestrated the most aggressive awards offensive this season–complete with copious appearances by the film's adorable co-star, Uggie–in its favor; and it has swept all of this season's Academy Award-foreshadowing accolades, including the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. Barring a surprise upset from the feel-good ensemble The Help or the year's early frontrunner, The Descendants, it looks like The Artist will add awards season's crown jewel to its already glimmering display case this weekend.

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Miller: The full-speed awards momentum of The Artist extends to the best director arena, where this year's BAFTA/Golden Globe/DGA Award-winning French filmmaker Michel Hazanavius is favored to receive his first little gold man for envisioning and executing the most critically-embraced picture this year.

Actor in a Leading Role: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Paul Mazursky: George Clooney is very endearing as the harried father in The Descendants. Jean Dujardin is super charming in The Artist, a sweet black and white look back at the silent movie era—and he will probably win. But if I had my way, I’d give it to Brad Pitt in Moneyball. His work always goes deep while at the same time feeling effortless. He’s as good as Brando but without any of the methody affectations—a great character actor in the body of a gorgeous leading man. Think Phillip Seymour Hoffman merged with a young Warren Beatty; his range is enormous. In Moneyball he’s totally convincing as the real-life Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane. He made me laugh, and somehow at the end of this charming film he moved me deeply. (Speaking of true stories, wouldn’t you love to see Brad and Angelina Jolie do a biopic about Bill and Hillary Clinton? Just a thought.)

Actor in a Supporting Role: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Miller: In the single strongest lock of Oscar season, Christopher Plummer enters this week's race as the supporting actor heavyweight for his delightful role in Beginners, as a father who finds happiness and, for the first time, love, just months before his death. If he wins, which he most-likely will, this will be Plummer's first Academy Award.

Mazursky: Jonah Hill, the nerd who becomes a mensch, should win for Moneyball, in my opinion.

Actress in a Leading Role: Viola Davis, The Help

Mazursky: Let’s cut to the chase: it’s either the divine Meryl Streep, or Viola Davis, or Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe. This is a tough one. Meryl is perfect as the older Margret Thatcher but the film didn’t get my vote. My personal pick is Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn. I liked the film and I loved Ms. Williams. The real Monroe was wildly neurotic, very sexy, scared down to her undies and yet impossible to say “no” to. (Billy Wilder said she was a great pain in the ass to work with, but worth it.) Ms. Williams gives one of the great performances in my 50 years of moviegoing. She seamless shows us the real Marilyn, the actress Marilyn who’s co-starring in the Prince and the Showgirl, and the tender, amusing personality Marilyn. Still, the town buzz is heavily thrumming in favor of Ms. Davis, whose “turn” it appears to be. So your safe money is on Aibilene, the stoic soul at the heart of The Help.

__Actress in a Supporting Role:__Octavia Spencer, The Help

Miller: This is the one top line category in which anArtist nominee is not favored. Octavia Spencer beatThe Artistactress Bérénice Bejo to every major podium this season, thanks to her portrayal of a feisty maid in Civil Rights-era Mississippi, and is expected to continue her podium procession at the Kodak Theatre this Sunday.

Best Foreign-Language Film:A Separation

__Mazursky:__For me, the best picture of the year is the Iranian film A Separation. In a deceptively simple manner, it teaches about the terrors both psychological and pragmatic that a middle class couple must endure in present day Iran. Shot in a raw style, it almost seems like a documentary at first, but then as the troubled relationship at the heart of it continues to unwind, it spirals into the unreal. At the end of the film I found myself sitting in silence, almost breathless… I still think about it.