Almost overnight, the German leader went from centrist, consensus-driven politician to divisive figure, loathed and loved, both at home and abroad.

The coming year will show whether Merkel’s 2015 watershed — her decision to open German borders to refugees with the rallying cry, “We can do it!” — marked a new beginning for her decade-old chancellorship or, as some have predicted, the beginning of the end.

The answer could have profound consequences not just for Germany, but Europe as a whole.

At a time when Europe faces multiple threats to its political and economic cohesion, not to mention its security, it has been Merkel’s (often last-minute) interventions that have kept the bloc from fracturing.

Merkel’s critics worry that her solutions address a problem’s symptoms rather than its root causes, a strategy that will simply delay Europe’s reckoning.

Nonetheless, it’s difficult to argue that Europe would have survived 2015 intact were it not for the efforts of the German chancellor.

This fall, with Europe at loggerheads over how to confront the refugee crisis, she again stepped into the breach, waving thousands stranded in a sweltering Budapest train station across the German border. She has faced intense criticism across Europe for her decision, but few have considered what it would have meant for the EU if she hadn’t acted. Even as most of the rest of Europe refused to lessen Germany’s burden by accepting more refugees, Merkel has held to her commitment.

In recent weeks, as the EU faced growing divisions over how to deal with Russia, Merkel played a central role behind the scenes in convincing other leaders to maintain sanctions.

The crisis manager

Merkel has won high praise (especially in the international media) for what many regard as deft crisis management. German elites, however, complain that she lacks the very quality for which she is most often praised: leadership.

Instead of using the considerable influence of her office as leader of Europe’s largest and richest country to shape Europe’s future, Merkel is happy to play the role of continental crisis fighter, they say.

The reluctance to adopt a more forward-looking approach is often attributed to German fear over being accused of imposing Berlin’s will on the rest of Europe.

Yet even in Germany, Merkel has eschewed grand plans for the country’s future. Germany’s last meaningful economic reforms, which many say laid the foundation for the country’s recent prosperity, carry the signature of Merkel’s predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. Despite persistent calls from economists to build on those measures, which included overhauls of welfare and labor market rules, Merkel has resisted.

Her most far-reaching policy is the Energiewende, a sweeping plan to shift from coal and nuclear power generation to renewable sources by mid-century. But here too, the original idea came from the Merkel camp’s predecessors.

Merkel’s approach to leadership can be summed up as “chronic crisis management,” German philosopher Peter Sloterdijk said in a recent essay to mark her 10th anniversary in office.

By allowing problems to simmer, in the hopes they will resolve themselves, Merkel has abandoned the opportunity to shape politics, Sloterdijk argued.

“She doesn’t act on her own, she reacts,” he wrote. “She is content to wait until the media outcry inflames public sentiment to such an extent that (political) intervention is unavoidable.”

That wait-and-see approach to problem solving recently entered the German vernacular as a verb: to merkeln.

A failure to prepare

Some observers see Merkel’s unwavering stance on refugees as evidence of a shift that could preface a more pro-active political style.

Even so, it was Merkel’s tendency to let problems fester that led to the crisis Germany now faces. By her own admission, she didn’t pay adequate heed to the warning signs.

The centerpiece of Merkel’s refugee plan is to reduce the number of new arrivals. So far, there’s little evidence, despite the onset of winter, of a significant drop.

The United Nations refugee agency has warned for years of the dire situation Syrian refugees face. Italy and Greece repeatedly asked Germany and other European countries for more help in managing the influx.

In recent weeks, Merkel has calmed the backlash her refugee policies unleashed at home.

By presenting a multi-faceted plan to confront the crisis, she has halted her party’s decline at the polls. Her own ratings have also stabilized.

At the annual congress of her Christian Democrats this month, she even received standing ovations.

The calm may not last for long.

The centerpiece of Merkel’s refugee plan is to reduce the number of new arrivals. So far, there’s little evidence, despite the onset of winter, of a significant drop.

Turkey agreed last month to stem the flow of refugees in exchange for billions in aid from the EU. Merkel lobbied hard for the deal, both in Europe and Turkey, but there are few signs Ankara has taken concrete steps.

Meanwhile, calls for more radical steps on Germany’s borders are getting louder. This week the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian wing of Merkel’s Christian Democrats, demanded that refugees without valid papers be turned away at the border. The party’s leadership has clashed repeatedly with Merkel in recent months.

She has managed to resist the CSU’s calls for an upper limit on refugees and stricter border controls. That could change, however, if the situation doesn’t improve soon.

On Wednesday, a Bavarian official announced that nearly 1.1 million refugees arrived in Germany in 2015.

That news will likely bolster support for the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland, a populist party that has seen its support double in recent months as the refugee crisis worsened. Recent polls put support for the party at about 9 percent. The trouble for Merkel is that many AfD supporters are disgruntled conservative voters.

For all the praise Merkel has earned abroad for taking in the refugees, it is the erosion of the conservative base that most worries many in her party.

“The praise shouldn’t lead us conclude we should do it again next year as well,” said Hans-Peter Uhl, a senior CSU official.

Merkel’s challenge will be to manage those internal tensions as she navigates Europe’s other flashpoints, from the U.K.’s planned referendum on EU membership to the surge in populist parties from Poland to Spain.

Earlier this month, Merkel described Europe’s near-term future as a “rocky road that will require determination and endurance.”

Even her detractors would agree that it’s a journey Europe is unlikely to survive without her.

Authors:

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It is the beginning of the end. The opening of the borders for the migrants was a colossal blunder for which Europe will pay heavily in future. Will Merkel have peace, if terror attacks and shutdowns become a regular feature of German life?

Posted on 12/31/15 | 9:09 AM CEST

Johann M. Wolff

Merkel would make a great Green chancellor as her policies reflects the Greens slogans when they are smashing windows and cars when out to protest: “No nations, No borders, No capitalism”.

Jokes aside, she really messed up with the refugee crisis, she’s letting in 1 mio people/year. You can easily multiply this by *3 after family reunification. Given the poor track record of Germany (Europe in general) in assimilating Muslim immigrants, I fail to see how can Germany successfully deal with this influx in the next 10-15 years. We already have parallel societies and no-go districts. I assume this will just intensify
I supported her bid for chancellorship 3 times. What a mistake I made ! ! !

Posted on 12/31/15 | 10:41 AM CEST

Petr

Even if insane Merkel was locked in asylum today and the keys thrown away and hard -working Greeks finally put their act together and actually started to protect the EU external border, it would be probably too late anyway.

@ Petr
Agree with your views. In the evening of her career, she seems to have put Germany and Europe on a very dangerous path. Wonder why!

Posted on 12/31/15 | 12:56 PM CEST

Someone

Ahahahahaha, “She is loved at home” of course, yeah, hahahahaha
nope

Posted on 1/1/16 | 5:44 PM CEST

zoe

What Merkel and her Co. allows herself in Germany against the people….non of any other European country’s people would accept….Do you think if Hollande or Rutte,or Orban ,Renzi,could do this with it”s own people??? No….

Posted on 1/1/16 | 9:43 PM CEST

Pooolisssh guy

She will be known as a Mutti Funder all brown German Nation & Germano-arabic bilingual Northern Kaliphat..
Who would taught , that we Slavic People will be Last Frontiers of White race in Europe and all World…
Amazing :-))

Posted on 1/1/16 | 9:55 PM CEST

Dan Kimble

Go Europe!! Save your heritage!!! Fight back against the Leftists who DEMAND that the European people be flooded with non-European immigration.

YOU HAVE A RIGHT to preserve your ethnic, cultural, and civic heritage, as well as the economic prosperity your ancestors built over generations.!!!

Once you lose your ethnic heritage, there will be nothing that can be done to bring it back!﻿

Posted on 1/2/16 | 1:11 AM CEST

m

1

Posted on 1/2/16 | 2:39 AM CEST

Roland

I think Politico is being very generous to Merkel because she has not solved anything. The Euro crises has been kicked down the road this latest bailout will be followed by more bailouts in the future. Sanctions on Russia haven’t achieved anything except hurt Europe and Russis economically and not made Putin change course, in Ukraine the Minsk agreement basically gives Russia everything it wanted. And then the disaster of the migrants well enough has been said on this. If Merkel wants to stop the flow she has to discourage people making the journey. Bribing African countries and Turkey looks incredibly weak and shows how clueless she is on what drives this migration flow. The only country who faced a similar sea born invasion by migrants , Australia succesfully reduced the number by intercepting boats but instead of bringing them to Australia bringing them to a third country for processing and settlement. European politicians need to understand the motive is not safety , the motive is the desire for European living standards. If they can understand this then they can understand why a policy like that of Australia has been so succesful and why front line states like Greece and Italy should follow their example. Understanding the migrants true motives is understanding how to halt it.

Posted on 1/2/16 | 3:20 PM CEST

Pooolissshh guy

This is sickening stuff, yet quite illustrative of the toxic arrogance and hypocrisy that prevails in …Brussels and Berlin, and is driving the EU to inevitable breakup. Keep talking like that Ms Mercel et al, as before you will find that Poland will be a rock on which all your schemes of domination and delusions of grandeur will shatter “…

Look into Merkels maternal ancestory, she herself is actually not an ethnic German.
Nor is she Polish, I strongly suspect she is a Sabbatean Jew – her maternal grandmother held the name Wachs.
In fact beyond that the maternal family tree mysteriously disappears

Posted on 1/3/16 | 10:19 AM CEST

groundkeeperwillie

Strange thing these microcosms. For example journalists probably just about everywhere throughout Europe believe that Ms. Merkel is loved and loathed and that societies are “polarized”. Perhaps that´s because being a journalist you are supposed to love migrants, Merkel and the EU, this is probably part of the job.
As far as my microcosm goes, I don´t know personally one single person who loves Ms. Merkel and welcomes migrants. (But there are some, I see them on telly all the time.) Actually everyone is aghast what is happening in Germany and what it will bring for the future of Europe. What no one understands is how come she isn´t yet overthrown by her own “conservative” (sic!) party and locked in some picturesque country nuthouse. From my perspective hardly any issue is that little polarizing as this one. The only ones feeling it polarizing are journalist (and some so called “intellectuals”) who are – you know – somewhat smarter than we humble, silly, ignorant citizens…

Posted on 1/3/16 | 10:44 AM CEST

Steve

Hey Pooolisssh guy, that’s my quote! But you are welcome to use it.

Also I note, that Merkel the former and still secret communist most often wears red, she just can’t help advertising her real loyalties, while leading Germany and the CDU to ruin, the latter party which she clearly joined to destroy, having NO other reason with her background and emerging aims to have not joined the SPD or another left party instead.

Posted on 1/3/16 | 5:47 PM CEST

Pooolish Guyy

re: Steve..
That’s why i put quote mark in it.
By the way. I read all your argumentation on DW. That was an EXCELLENT piece of journalism and show of high potential free Intellect and Mind. !!
I was very impressed ! Best regards and hope to read some more :-))

Posted on 1/3/16 | 8:10 PM CEST

Pooolish Guyy

re2 :Steve..
In your last sentence you mentioned about Mekel Communist GDR past and impact on current political development in Germany..:-))
Check Markel-Putin links from 70-s, when latest was high rank KGB appointee to STASI & attache to Communist German Government in East Berlin .
Also check links about Anetta Kahane (high STASI level) and her present relation with Merkel..VERY interesting 🙂

Merkel and her cabinet colleagues must read the comments on Politico and gauge the public opinion. She has embarked on a suicidal path for her country. These migrants whom she so dearly admires, will in no time convert the proud nation into a Somalia or Sudan or Syria or Iraq. Does she want Africa in Germany?