One of the most interesting elements of constructing a statistical projection is trying to figure out where your outliers are and how they got there. While Football Outsiders labors over our annual NFL forecast, sometimes even we think the projections are a bit off. Then again, sometimes when they look off, they turn out to be pretty right on. This time last year, we were writing about how low we were on the Carolina Panthers, how high we were on the Tennessee Titans and how we thought the Detroit Lions had a chance at the NFC North.

Sam Bradford figures to get plenty of help from the Vikings' defense again in 2017. Our crew of Insiders picks the teams being unwisely overlooked and overhyped at this stage of the offseason.

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So, in that spirit, let's look at the four teams for which our projections differ the most from the conventional wisdom. These are the four teams that sportsbooks in Vegas have given win total over/unders that are more than two wins removed from our projections.