The resurgence of Ryan McDonagh

Suffice it to say, last year was a disaster for Ryan McDonagh. He struggled mightily, and seemed unable to carry an injured Dan Girardi who really shouldn’t have been in the lineup. There were many theories behind his struggles, from no support from his partner (whether it be Girardi or Kevin Klein) to no support from forwards. But part of the onus did fall on McDonagh, who was one of the many players caught running around in his own zone last year.

This year, we have seen a Ryan McDonagh like we have never seen before. We’ve known what he can do in his own zone, but he’s never been one to really rack up the points. McDonagh has nine assists so far, with an eight-game point streak. He’s been eating minutes at all strengths, and looks like the McDonagh of old.

Here’s how McDonagh has fared with his fellow defensemen this season. He’s been paired only with Girardi and Nick Holden here, and you see that both pairs are close to the median line, while McDonagh alone is more towards the “good” part. The pairing with Holden is a little on the scary side, but as of right now it looks like McDonagh and Girardi are able to play big and capable minutes together.

In terms of pure CF% (either raw or adjusted for score, venue, and zone), McDonagh is one of two players –Adam Clendening being the other– above the magic 50% line. This might be a tad misleading, since the Rangers have been ahead for so much of the season that the numbers are skewed, but adjusting for score minimizes that a bit.

Perhaps the best part about McDonagh’s play is his influence on his teammates. Using the above chart, we can see that McDonagh has a positive influence on his teammates. To read this, the purple is where a teammate is when playing with McDoangh, and the red is where a teammate is without him on the ice. Most of the purple boxes are up and to the right (more towards the “good” part) of the red boxes, which shows positive impact.

It is worth noting that the two primary people McDonagh sees ice time with are Holden and Girardi. Both red boxes are on the “bad” side of the middle line, while both purple boxes are on the “good” side. That means McDonagh carries these players. The good thing here is that Girardi seems to be able to go along for the ride, while Holden seems to stay put.

A resurgent Ryan McDonagh was one of the key needs for this Rangers club this season. Without it, the team was likely doomed to repeat the same mistakes as last season. With it, the Rangers can hold their own defensively while the forwards carry the load. McDonagh has been a monster this year and is very clearly carrying the blue line to success. This is what you expect of your best defenseman and your captain.

I can only wonder if the World Cup put RMcD in game shape from game 1. He came into game 1 with a passion that was not there last year. You can blame it on his partners, but he has a jump in his game that was not there last year. He is playing younger and quicker. Did he, by chance train with Hayes in the off-season?

It’s basically just weighting data differently based on whether a team is behind, tied, or leading on the scoreboard.

The Rangers, for example, have pretty solid possession stats when trailing or tied, but have a shoddy possession line with the lead. But because they’ve held the lead so often, without score adjustments, the Rangers would look like a subpar possession team, when in fact they drive possession near League leading levels when it matters most, when they’re behind or the game is tied.

And just to expand a bit further, the Rangers are 4th in Fenwick and 5th in Corsi 5-on-5 Close (tied or trailing by 1 goal). It’s only once you factor in their possession numbers with a lead that they appear to be possessing at sub-average rates.

How good McDonagh was last year is unclear. Among the 53 pairs who played 500+ minutes 5v5, McDonagh-Girardi was last in possession stats and first in +/- per 60, averaging 1.31 goals per 60 more than the opposition. Or, to put it simply, their horrible play caused the Rangers to win most of their games.

Obviously, Ryan was the strength of this pair and so he was actually not that bad. He is already an absurd +10 this year. Yes, +/- is unreliable because of sample size and usage. However, when a guy is repeatedly used against the best opposition, is the strong member of his pair, and wins the +/- game year after year, he is flat out good.