I am decidedly not very good at naval operations. Today, my Shortlands invasion, on its way back, was intercepted by an enemy surface force. It was not nice.

I've found that TF composition is crucial in the beginning, and getting in and out fast with these invasions can really save some of your fleet. Also, getting recon and naval search into the area using AVs or any other ship with floatplanes can help diagnose the situation before you commit these forces to a landing.

Fast transports made up of surface combat ships are ideal for these unopposed landings as they can defend themselves both from surface and submarine forces on their way there and back, and move quickly.

Thanks a lot for the comments, Obvert, they do make a lot of sense. I have yet to use fast transports, I believe I understand how they work, but so far, I never found a reason to prefer them to amphibious landings. For large offensive landings, ship capacity is usually too low. For base reinforcement or unopposed second line landings, they use up combat ships that I always end up needing on the front line, or as escorts for my more important convoys.

The lack of naval search in front of my amphibious forces is a bad habit I believe I have picked during my previous game (the AAR entitled “now that the land rings…”). Back then, my opponent, after a putting up a good fight on the first days of the war, had retreated all his naval forces from the DEI, and I landed everywhere against little opposition. I am trying to improve on all this, but I am learning very slowly.

Hurries over Singapore

With Zeroes and Oscars now based in Taiping and Kota Bharu, sweeps over Singapore become much easier. This will improve again soon, as we just landed in Singkawang. Intelligence shows the base is lightly garrisoned, and I believe it will fall tomorrow, and can be used to base planes the day after.

I am shooting down five enemy planes a day, over Singapore, for one or two losses on my side. So far, enemy fighters were all Buffaloes, but today, Hurricanes IIb appeared in the sky. A look at the combat report shows those were from the 488th RAF squadron, which normally begins the game equipped with Buffaloes, but somehow upgraded to Hurricanes (probably by disbanding some outfit, since I don’t think the allies produce Hurricanes before January). This will be interesting to follow. Hurries are better armed than my fighters, but slightly less maneuverable, and have higher service ratings, and I have much better pilots, too…

There is little more to report in Malaya, we’re one hex north of Temuloh, and two hexes south of Taiping. Sweeps over Kuala, Kuantuan and Mersing produce nothing, apparently, everybody has packed into Singers.

Closing on Manila

A preliminary bombardment of Manila showed the base is lightly held. We have 450 AV there, the defenders have 230, there is no sign of reinforcement from Clark. I am waiting from the 21st division, now in Batangas, before I attack the city.

Cabanatuan has been reinforced and will be attacked tomorrow. A division equivalent has arrived in Laoag, and is now marching on Lingayen.

All in all, I have a little less than four divisions on Luzon. The enemy seems to be going for a Clark-Bataan perimeter. My objective is to bottle him in Clark (by controlling all hexsides out of it) by the end of the month. Then I will lay siege, and bomb the place to submission. I expect this can be done with only part of the forces currently on Luzon. In particular, I’d like to send the 4th ID to Singapore...

Down with the 81st

In Mongolia, we sortied from Paotow (so long you can call “sortie” a process which involves four days walking a hex, and one more to order the attack), and attacked the 81st Corps, that had been defeated a week ago, for the second time. Fu Zuoyi stood no chance…

The 81st is probably now damaged enough to provide no resistance to my advance on Ningsia. My troops are now moving on Kweisui, to attack the Chinese corps holding the mountain hex north of it.

The objective here is to destroy enough squads to prevent any organized resistance by there troops, between Mongolia and Turkestan. The siege of Yenan, bound to begin very soon serves the same purpose.

The battle for Ichang

In the plains north of Hankow, a Chinese corps was defeated with heavy losses. On the railway from Hankow to Sinyang, two Chinese corps fought a Japanese brigade to an inconclusive draw. The Chinese are probably not strong enough to take the hex, and two divisions have been ordered to reinforce my brigade. Once these corps are defeated, the battle for the Sinyang – Hankow area will probably be over.

I have now 1000 AV in Ichang, behind forts, and the enemy has ten units that already damaged themselves while trying to attack a few days ago. They also have been occupying the marshes south of the base, but this attempt to cut Ichang off is not going well, now that his troops on the other side of the river have been defeated.

Still, there are quite a few enemy units in and around Ichang, which would be worth destroying or at least damaging. As soon as the plains are conquered, instead of moving on Nanyang and Loyang (and then Sian), I will probably send troops towards Ichang, to try to damage as many of the defenders as I can, and threaten Changsha.

The more I look at Ichang, the more I find it a very interesting position. From there, you can threaten cutting of the Changsha basin from the West, or moving early on Patung (across country) or just falling back to northern China (via Hankow and the railroad).

Hugh L. Scott shows up as sunk but, judging by the change in LCU VP this turn, I don’t think she had many troops on board (or if she did, they were rescued by other vessels). Still, an AP is an AP…

Compared to my previous game, where submarines hardly sank anything, thirteen enemy ships are reported as lost to 53cm torpedoes (IJN sub weapon of choice) as of today. With more than 10 000 tons, Hugh L. Scott is my largest prize so far (but a sub did put a torpedo into Saratoga, a few days ago…) Right now, I am patrolling in a corridor from Suva to Christmas Island, around Hawai and along the West coast.

Sleighs over Singapore

We are still sweeping Singapore, and managed to shoot down two Hurricanes today, together with a handful of Buffaloes. The AVG is still nowhere to be seen, I have the feeling they are not in China.

Singkawang fell today to a deliberate attack. The airfield is in good condition, and I will base Zeroes and Nells there tomorrow.

The air war, so far, has been quite bloody, but favorable to Japan. We have lost 316 planes, to 516 for the Allies. This 3:5 loss ratio keeps being reached day after day.

To Moulmein and beyond

Yesterday, the 14th Tank Regiment had attacked Moulmein and reduced its forts. Today, the base fell. Two infantry regiments should arrive tomorrow, the rest of the column in a few days. The area between Moulmein and Rangoon does not seem defended. It is most likely that the battle for Burma will take place in Rangoon in about two weeks.

Meanwhile, we are bombing Rangoon and its port. No ships have been seen there, so it seems the enemy did not try to resupply China.

In other news

On Luzon, Cabanatuan fell today. Two Philippine Divisions and a Tank Regiment were mauled and retreated towards Clark Field. In Manila, a second day of bombardment confirmed the enemy does not seem to be reinforcing the city.

On Mindanao, Cotobato was captured. The 146th infantry regiment should reach Dadjangas tomorrow. After that, the southern half of Mindanao will be ours.

Finally, in China, the two Chinese divisions defending Pakhoi were easily defeated today (they had been bombed from the air for more than a week). They have retreated into the plains between Pakhoi and Kwangchowan. This is good: the last place I wanted them to go is the jungle between Pakhoi and Haiphong.

Tomorrow is a pretty big day for Japan. We are raiding Ambon, where a large Allied task force has been detected, and in China we are assaulting Chengchow. Boxing day indeed !

As expected, the large surface task force (two cruisers, a light cruiser and nine destroyers) that was ordered to bombard Ambon found the enemy task force there on its way. It was a bad day for the Allies, CA Pensacola and CL Danae were sunk, and several others badly damaged. Later, CL Adelaide tried to stop the returning task force, with her little guns. It didn’t work.

Haguro is the only ship damaged on my side. She’ll be fine, but will need some yard time.

There still are quite a few ships in Ambon. Apparently, this is one of the places my opponent chose to defend (in retrospect, I am a bit surprised by the absence of mines in the port). As a result, I have decided to change my plans. Instead of going for an early Ambon and Koepang invasion, I will attack the Celebes (Macassar and Kendari) and the southern coast of Borneo (Tarakan and Balikpapan).

In the plains

Two important battles took place in China. North of Sinyang, a large enemy force was defeated by three Japanese divisions, reinforced with armor. Over 1100 squads, half of them combat, were destroyed. Those four corps are no more a fighting force.

In Chengchow, three divisions, attacking across the river, took the city at the first attempt. Over 650 squads were destroyed.

This concludes my operations in the central plains. Apart from small mopping up operations, which will take place tomorrow, all the plains east and including the railway line from Sinyang to Chengchow are under Japanese control. The only two Chinese bases left in this area are Nanyang and Loyang.

What now? Loyang sports more than 85 000 troops, not all in good shape. I probably have enough to defeat them should they choose to fight for the city. And I would be quite happy to do so: all troops damaged in the plains will not fight in the better terrain between Loyang and Sian. I will first try to isolate the city, by cutting the western road to Sian. Unless my opponent evacuates now, this means we will have a battle for Loyang. In the south, troops west of Sinyang have already been seen retreating towards Nanyang. I will try to prevent this, but they own the faster track.

My short term goals are pretty straightforward. Between Nanyang and Hankow, I want to do as much damage as I can on the defeated units in the area. Capturing Nanyang would be a plus, since it would complicate their supply situation. Around Loyang, I want to cut retreat paths. Once this is done, and unless the enemy succeeds in evacuating Loyang, I will need to decide whether I go for Loyang or Nanyang first. This will depend on the situation at the time, but overall I believe Nanyang is more important than Loyang. Once I hold this base, I can launch an early attack on Sian, or move troops towards Ichang to defeat the enemy there.

Only Bataan, Clark Field and Iba remain under Allied control. Iba will be captured tomorrow, and then we will march on Clark from all directions. The idea is to close the hexsides leading out of it, to prevent any sortie. Then I will lay the siege, bombard a few days to see what we are facing, and probably leave a relatively small garrison and let the defenders starve.

Further south, on Mindanao, Djajangas was captured. The enemy only holds the northern coast.

Indian Ocean

In Burma, the second attack on Moulmein succeeded in taking the city. The defenders have retreated towards Pegu, I am chasing them. Over Rangoon, my sweeps are no longer challenged by enemy fighters. We are detecting a large concentration of enemy troops. It seems my opponent will defend Burma.

The 15th Guard regiment are arriving in Moulmein tomorrow. Together with my tank regiment there, they will constitute my spearheads, and march on Pegu. The Imperial Guard division is a few days behind. They will join the others in Pegu and march on Rangoon.

I am still hoping to close the Burma road by mid January.

In the Red Lair

Two divisions crossed the river into Yenan. It was a bloody affair, but we’re in. Three brigades are four days behind. Another division is a week back.

Prospects are pretty good. The enemy has 13 units in town (and another one one hex away), including four infantry corps, and a cavalry corps. The 19th and the 23rd corps were the troops defending the road from Taiyuan, and have been damaged on several occasions. The 4th Cavalry corps was defeated four days ago. Overall, the enemy has relatively weak forces garrisoning the city. I am relatively confident that I can take the base in January.

After an unsuccessful attempt by an SNLF battalion, the 144th regiment landed on Wake Island a few day ago. With 100 AV against 30 allies, this looked like an easy campaign. Not so. After a day of rest to wear off the initial disruption, the first deliberate attack barely missed 1:1 odds, increasing disruption, and disabling a number of squads. And today, a second attack totally missed. My regiment is now in very bad shape. It is supplied, and I don’t think the enemy can take it out, but the conquest of Wake is embarrassingly difficult.

An SNLF was sent on a fast transport from Kwajalein. I hope fresh troops can tilt the balance. If my regiment can survive and recover until then, that is…

Good news from Nauru

Both Nauru and Ocean islands were invaded and captured today. This is good news, as our Imperial reserves of guano were getting low. Both SNLF battalions will now reembark and capture neighbouring islands.

I am still hesitating about setting up resource convoys from Ocean and Nauru. Those tend to use a lot of fuel, and Japan does not really need resources.

Kuala Lumpur…

… was liberated today. It hardly was defended, and it now seems clear that there will be no advanced defense of the Peninsula. We will fight in Singapore, then.

Before we move onwards to Malacca, I am resting my units for a few days, to allow for the capture of Temuloh. There is no point rushing now, and I don’t want to leave enemy units in my rear.

That is pretty much all there is to say about the war today… On Luzon, our troops are marching on Clark Field. In China, we are waiting for reinforcements in Yenan, marching on Chuhsien and Loyang, and towards Nanyang, where the Chinese pulled a nice counterattack today, against a tank regiment that had imprudently moved into forward position.

After an unsuccessful attempt by an SNLF battalion, the 144th regiment landed on Wake Island a few day ago. With 100 AV against 30 allies, this looked like an easy campaign. Not so. After a day of rest to wear off the initial disruption, the first deliberate attack barely missed 1:1 odds, increasing disruption, and disabling a number of squads. And today, a second attack totally missed. My regiment is now in very bad shape. It is supplied, and I don’t think the enemy can take it out, but the conquest of Wake is embarrassingly difficult.

An SNLF was sent on a fast transport from Kwajalein. I hope fresh troops can tilt the balance. If my regiment can survive and recover until then, that is…

I think a few days bombardment are key to taking Wake. Either air bombardment from KB swinging by or send a couple bombardment TF's to soften up the defence and cause disruption. I find without either, Wake can hold against a stronger force for some reason.

I am discovering the virtues of bombardment, especially from the air. They seem to be extremely important against large stacks or dug in defenders. Wake is a case in point, but I have been experimenting with it in China. In Pakhoi, a half strength Chinese corps was reduced to something spongelike by several weeks of bombings by Idas and Sonias (not the most fearsome Imperial bombers…)

December 29th 1941

This was not a very eventful day…

The two Chinese corps that occupied the railroad between Hankow and Sinyang were defeated, with heavy losses, by two divisions (3rd and 6th) and a brigade. This was the last significant enemy stack north of the railway line. The units that were trying to seal Ichang off have been seen retreating towards Nanyang, too. Ichang seems safe now, and the battles for the northern plains resulted into large casualties for the Chinese.

In Chuhsien, a preliminary bombardment revealed a 500 AV strong garrison. Two infantry corps, a construction regiment and three headquarter units. I have two fresh divisions, we shall see.

In the DEI, Sidate was captured. My task force en route to Ambon was attacked by enemy Banshees… One troop transport was sunk, and most of a base force went down with her. I hate those guys… (especially when I forget to set LRCAP over my invasions).

December 30th 1941

That was another light turn…

The invasion of Ambon is proving a disastrous affair. The troops hit the ground today, but a second transport was sunk in the process, despite air cover and naval bombardment. My SNLF battalion made it ashore in decent shape, but almost nothing is left of the base force that accompanied it, and very little supplies were landed. The first enemy bombardment also showed the enemy had reinforced the place, and we are outnumbered.

Reinforcements are on their way, I will bomb from the air, and try to hold my beachhead until the cavalry, or whatever you call it in these areas, arrives.

The mini-KB, operating in the area, managed to sink PC Zeaman and damage AVD Arend. One of my DD is in very bad shape. I hope she makes it back to Ternate.

In China, a first deliberate attack on Chuhsien reduced the forts, but failed to achieve 1:1 odds. I need some rest before I attack again.

In the North, it looks as if the enemy is trying to move against my supply lines. A unit is crossing the river from Yenan, another one is marching (also across a river) on the railway between Peiping and Kalgan. I am pretending not to see, I am not recceing, not bombing, and have infantry waiting for them…

Yesterday, a Chinese corps moved into Tsiaotso. I had a division and a brigade ready for them…

The 8th division will attack tomorrow, and finish them off. This and the failed move on Tsiaotso yesterday should dampen future Chinese dreams of counterattack.

The thing about Ambon

After our disastrous landing yesterday, there was much concern in the Evil Imperial HQ about the fate of our Ambon beachhead. Fatigued, disrupted, unsupplied and outnumbered, our situation seemed fateful, as they say in history books when writers wax lyrical.

But once again, the naysayers were proven wrong (and summarily executed in the rejoicing and merrymaking that followed): the Allied defenders attacked, but failed to gain favorable odds, and had to retreat, disrupted.

We should reinforce Ambon in two or three days, with and armored regiment. I know this is not the best unit for that task, but that was the closest one we had. Another SNLF battalion should arrive in about a week.

Bornean adventures

Beaufort fell today. We now hold all the northern coast of Borneo. Also today, we landed in Balikpapan. During the night, a patrol boat was sunk, and one of our destroyers (HEIS Fubuki) hit a mine. She’s still afloat, but damaged.

The landings took place in the early morning, with the coastal guns damaging xAP Hie Maru. Finally, we were attacked by B17-D in the afternoon. Four enemy bombers were damaged, and we suffered no losses.

At the end of the day, we have more than 100 AV on the ground, and two of our ships are damaged. We need another day to unload supplies.

The war so far

So far, it was a good beginning for the Evil Empire. The raid on Pearl Harbor succeeded in sinking three battleships and a cruiser, and Netties from Indochina dispatched Prince of Wales and Repulse. In the Indies, we have captured all of Malaya north of Kuala and Temuloh, most of Luzon, half of Mindanao, Manado and Ternate and the northern coast of Borneo. In Burma, we hold Moulmein, and are closing on Rangoon. In China, we have captured Hongkong and the coastal bases in Guangdong, and most of the central plains. Overall, 75 bases were taken this month.

On the other hand, there were little invasions in the South Pacific. Rabaul and Guadalcanal are still held by the Allies.

Losses were high but favor Japan. We sank 114 allied ships for 41 of ours, and shot down 550 planes for 250 losses. Ground unit loss points are 1300 to 100. Victory point ratio is 1.5:1.

Enemy doctrine is beginning to get clearer. This is an important difference between this kind of PBEM game and reality: if you play a new opponent, you begin the war with no idea of his playing style, and it is always better to spend a while understanding how he reacts, before formulating detailed plans.

In the Southern Resource Area, my opponent has been waging a defensive battle. He generally fell back on key bases (Rangoon, Singapore), pulled back his heavy bombers and most of his navy, reinforced some areas (Burma and Ambon), and launched quick counter strikes every time he could. During counter attacks, his weapons of choice have been naval bombing at low altitude (we have no home rule preventing it), and surface raids by small task forces, generally built around one or two cruisers. He also bombed oil fields and refineries every time he had a chance.

I read all this as a “no nonsense” approach to strategy, coupled with a tactical approach to defense. Since the Allies cannot prevent Japanese conquest, they retreat slowly and orderly, while trying to stab the Empire every time it overextends. My best counter is to remain methodical, and avoid Ambon-like deep thrusts (which is exactly what the enemy is waiting for).

In China, his strategy is difficult to understand. He did try a number of counterattacks, towards, Ichang, Sinyang, Taiyuan, Anking and now Kiukiang and Nanchang, but never commits enough troops, and always seems to stop short of the target. I believe he has no real plan for China, and has not decided on a line on which to fall back. As a result, lots of Chinese troops are still scattered in forward positions.

This suggests the following general strategy (henceforth referred to as the “Evil Doctrine”, or ED for you acronym-lovers).

I am not aggressive enough to force the Allies into submission by 1943 (in game terms, through auto-victory). Therefore, my goal is prevent, or delay, Allied reconquest. To do so, I want to take China out of the war as early as possible. Enemy indecisiveness there suggests this can be done by the end of 1942 or the beginning of 1943. Then, troops garrisoning China will be sent to India, the East Indies and the Pacific, allowing for a very strong defense by the second half of 1943. If I still hold most of the DEI and central Pacific by then, I believe I can survive, and win. If enemy reconquest begins earlier, or China takes too long to fall, well…

This means two major objectives for 1942 and early 1943: defeat China, and delay Allied advance.

In my opinion, the key to conquering China is to slowly reduce its huge army. The Chinese begin the game with a lot of troops, bad quality troops, but a lot of them. On the other hand, low replacement rate and lack of supplies mean that when a Chinese unit is defeated in battle (after its second retreat, say), it will probably never recover. As a result, my short term goal in China is not to conquer territory but to damage enemy units. I believe this is better done now, when the enemy has to defend a long front, from Yenan to Loyang to Nanyang to Ichang to Changsha, and I hold railways and roads that allow for fast troop movement between sectors. Marching on Sian, or going for an early breakthrough in central China, will only cause the enemy to fall back on shorter lines, in better terrain, and slow the time I need to shift troops along the front.

To delay Allied advance I have two ideas. First, I am pretty certain that my opponent will advance methodically in the Pacific and the DEI. The best way to slow such advances is to start with a large perimeter. Therefore, I will try extend into south Pacific and northern Australia. Second, I believe that Allied attempts to defend Sumatra or Java in 1942, if they are defeated, delay Allied reconquest, by having them lose more troops early in the game. I cannot ask my opponent to go for a fortress Palembang, but I want to tempt him into it, by delaying the invasion of Sumatra and Java. I do realize this means risking the oilfields and refineries, but this is scenario 2, and you can’t have everything, anyway.

Landings went better in Balikpapan than in Ambon, but we did lose a second troop transport. Hate those Banshees! The troops are now supplied, and the task force will sail at full speed towards Davao. A first deliberate attack reduced the forts and achieved 3:1 odds.

Pegu fell today. Reconnaissance reports 15 units in Rangoon, including the five we just defeated. We only have a tank and an infantry regiment. We will wait for the Imperial Guard division, now in Moulmein.

In Clark Field, a first bombardment revealed the enemy only had 280 AV in the base, Philippine infantry, mostly. They probably are behind forts, but we can take the base. We are attacking tomorrow.

La monnaie de leur pièce (for those of you who cannot read Japanese, this expression means “payback”)

The Allies tried to counterattack in Ambon and Wake, and didn’t quite succeed.

South of Yenan, the red division that had done the same yesterday was wiped out.

A good day in China

In Loyang, a first bombardment found 1000 AV in the city, eight Chinese corps, several base forces and engineer units, and lots of HQ. I have lots of artillery arriving tomorrow, and will bombard before I attack, but I am tempted to try and surround the city, to force surrender. The infantry corps will respawn in Chungking, but the engineers, base forces and HQ will be gone for good.

East of Nanyang, the big Chinese stack that had retreated from Sinyang was defeated once more. The damage done is quite impressive.

Balikpapan fell today. Three Warhawks and seven Banshees were destroyed on the ground. The oilfields and refinery are only lightly damaged, but I am expecting enemy bombers anytime soon. My tank regiment is now marching on Samarinda.

In Tarakan, a first deliberate attack managed 1:1 odd, and reduced the forts. The enemy is outnumbered, I expect this base to fall tomorrow or the day after.

The conquest of Borneo is progressing nicely. I will probably hold the northern and southeastern coast by the end of this week. The west coast will take a little more time.

Clark Field

A first deliberate attack achieved 2:1 odds, and reduced the forts to level 2. My opponent does not seem to reinforce this base. I believe he is just planning to fall back on Baatan. This suits me fine. Clark will probably fall before the end of the week. Then, we will march on Baatan, see whether we have a chance of taking the place, and if not, lay siege.

Somehow, I believe the enemy made the conquest of Luzon pretty easy for me. This is good, as this will free troops for Singapore and Sumatra.

China

Most of the action today took place in China. In the north, a Chinese corps was mauled near Kweisui. I will pursue, and defeat them a second time, then move my troops back to Kweisui, to attack the Chinese units in the mountains between Kweisui and Taiyuan.

In Yenan, a second deliberate attack reduced the forts to level two, but did not do much damage. Reinforcements are on their way. It will be a long siege, I’m afraid.

In Loyang, a second round of bombardment destroyed 16 squads and disabled 50. This is looking good.

In Kiukiang, the Chinese corps that tried to invest the city was badly defeated. I plan to use my division there to pursue, and damage it a second time. In Chuhsien, we managed to reduce the forts, but, like Yenan, it will most certainly take a while.

Japanese prospects in China are quite bright. In the North, the enemy unit between Taiyuan and Kweisui are being defeated and reduced, and will oppose little resistance once we march westwards. The siege of Yenan will probably last another week or so, but the enemy is doomed there.

In the central plains, Loyang will need a few more days of bombardments before we attack, but I don’t see how it can be saved. I will arrive in Nanyang tomorrow, and see what waits there. According to recon, there are lots of units in the city, but many of them have been defeated near Sinyang or Hankow. If we can damage both the Loyang and Nanyang troops, the road to Sian will be very difficult to defend, and the enemy will not benefit from the defensive terrain (especially since the northern route from Yenan will be open).

In central China, Ichang is a stalemate, and enemy counterattacks around Kiukiang are not strong enough to damage my troops. Attempts to cut off supplies were foiled by sending ships up the Changjiang. Still, I am not sure Nanchang and Kiukiang could resist a serious attack by the Chinese (they have quite a few units in this area). I am concentrating a small force (three divisions) in Wuchang. I want to push towards Changsha, deal some damage, and force the enemy to fall back.

In the South, my two divisions from Hong Kong are moving towards Pakhoi. They will push the remnants of the 64th Chinese corps, and move to Lang Son, and then to Singapore. Once I have cleared the coast, I will probably not move much. I am very thin on the ground, there.

Somehow, I believe the enemy made the conquest of Luzon pretty easy for me. This is good, as this will free troops for Singapore and Sumatra.

I agree, I always think this is a mistake. Allies should vigorously defend Luzon, it can really dampen the IJ expansion plans. Rolling over quickly allows for the IJ to pursue targets like OZ and India. Just my thoughts ...

It had been a while since the AVG had disappeared from the face of earth. They’re back: the second squadron flew over Pakhoi today. I am glad I know, I just wish they hadn’t eaten ten of my Lilies for breakfast. The two other squadrons have yet to appear. I suppose they either are busy transferring to northern China, or are resting somewhere, to get replacements. I have shot 60 of their planes down, out of 80 available, replacement included.

Valiant I-123

Since a number of days, my submarines never seem to find targets. Today, I-123 patrolling in the straits off Balikpapan managed to find, and sink, two enemy ships, xAKL Beatrice, and AG Gemma. Both now show up as sunk.

A week after the fiasco of the first landings, a tank regiment arrived in Ambon. We now have enough troops to hold the place, and perhaps to take it. An SNLF battalion should arrive in a few day, just in case.

On Luzon, a second day of attack on Clark Field further reduced the forts, and destroyed about a hundred enemy squads. Despite mounting disruption, I am attacking again tomorrow, it seems the base is ripe for capture. Note how, in the combat report, casualties and squad losses tell different stories (the squads are the correct ones)

Chinese units in the central plains are clustered in two large stacks, 1000 AV in Loyang, and 1700 in Nanyang. Both are in clear terrain behind forts. Most of the troops in Loyang are fresh, I have been bombing them today for the third day in a row, destroying about 50 combat squads overall. I will try to attack tomorrow.

Since most of the troops in Nanyang were already defeated around Sinyang, I tried a deliberate attack.

I am trading disablement for destroyed squads, I can probably sustain another such attack, and then I will need to rest. The city should fall in a week.

One good thing about the battle of Nanyang is that it relieves the pressure on Ichang. Units threatening the Hankow-Ichang road have been see marching back.

In Yenan, another deliberate attack achieved similar results as in Nanyang. We had heavy disablements, but the enemy lost squads in exchange, and forts lost a level. An infantry division is five days away, I will probably attack once or twice before it arrives, which means Yenan will probably be ours in a week.

All this suggests that, before the fifteenth of January, I might have three stacks, one in Yenan, one in Loyang and one in Nanyang, ready to close on Sian.

The fall of Clark Field

This was the other important piece of news today. A third deliberate succeeded in taking the base. I am especially happy with the number of guns and vehicles destroyed in the process.

The enemy now had some 40 units in Bataan. I believe this favours me, since the terrain (jungle) is not as protective as in Clark (Jungle rough), and the base, being smaller, will spoil supplies. But I still don’t know whether I can take it with the forces at hand (close to 2000 AV once rested) or if I need to besiege them. I am marching on Bataan, I will soon know.

Chinese units in the central plains are clustered in two large stacks, 1000 AV in Loyang, and 1700 in Nanyang. Both are in clear terrain behind forts. Most of the troops in Loyang are fresh, I have been bombing them today for the third day in a row, destroying about 50 combat squads overall. I will try to attack tomorrow.

Since most of the troops in Nanyang were already defeated around Sinyang, I tried a deliberate attack.

I am trading disablement for destroyed squads, I can probably sustain another such attack, and then I will need to rest. The city should fall in a week.

One good thing about the battle of Nanyang is that it relieves the pressure on Ichang. Units threatening the Hankow-Ichang road have been see marching back.

I think this is all good for you. You're fighting largish stacks in the clear, not in the forests. The more you can wear them down here the quicker Sian will fall eventually. I would take as long as possible, getting as many attacks in as you can at 1:1 to keep lowering the AV and total strength of these troops before you push them back to the good defensive hex.

At Yenan you'll have more trouble if you don't wipe out the units there, as they will most likely retreat to the hinterlands. That means they'll come back behind your lines later after you've moved off to Sian and harass your LOC.

That’s pretty much my early strategy in China. This is an attrition battle. The enemy begins the game with a lot of infantry corps in the 200-350 AV range, which can cluster into very strong stacks (especially once the battle moves into defensive terrain). Once damaged and reduced to 100 or less, they will never come back as decent fighting forces, for lack of supplies and low replacement rate. And once most Chinese corps have become shells, unless the Burma road is open and supplies are flowing, there is nothing the Allies can do to save the KMT.

To do so, I want to fight in open terrain as much as I can. Loyang and Nanyang are good places, as is Ichang, and the area around Nanchang and Changsha.

Another important aspect I have noticed in my previous game is that defeated stacks should always be pursued. Once units retreat, they tend to accumulate a lot of disablements, which become easy targets for destruction (even in closed terrain). Give them enough time, and those squads will be back (repairing disabled squads cost no supplies).

To me this is the key with the Yenan boys. Once you have pushed them out of town, just pursue and defeat them over and over. They will be fighting over long supply lines (to Sian), and by the time you’ve pushed them to the Wei river banks (the plains north of Sian) or the Huanghe loop (near Ningsia), they will have become ghost units.

An Allied task force, CA Houston, CL Boise, Marblehead and Dragon, and a handful of DD, bombarded Ambon this morning. Damage is light, and my reinforcements are only due tomorrow. This suggests two interesting facts. First, enemy combat vessels are based in the area. Northern Australia looks like a likely possibility. I will send submarines, and perhaps the KB (now refitting in Truk). Second, Ambon is being defended, and reinforced (an Australian detachment appeared a few days ago, and independent company showed up today). I doubt this can succeed, but I believe such island fortresses provide good opportunities to damage enemy assets (eg CA Pensacola two weeks ago).

Balikpapan mysteries

A convoy appeared in Balikpapan today. My minesweepers sank a couple of ships, and surface force will deal with the rest tomorrow.

This is not the first unprotected convoy I detect in this area. I don’t quite understand what the enemy is trying to do. Those (mostly) Dutch ships might have brought reinforcements to Balikpapan, were they in ports?

B17-D bombed the refinery today. I had Zeroes on CAP, which shot several bombers down, but could not prevent them from doing damage. This reinforces my feeling that fuel-intensive strategies, like trying to grab a large perimeter in the Pacific, are very dangerous.

Elsewhere in Borneo, Tarakan fell today. Samarinda was captured yesterday, and Pontianak should be ours tomorrow. This means all Borneo, save the west coast, is ours. This makes the Celebes sea a Japanese lake, and will soon turn the defense of Ambon into a complex affair.

Nanyang and Loyang

The second day of the battle of Nanyang was not as nice as the first, but we destroyed another level of fortifications, and damaged a few more units.

I still don’t understand enemy plans in China. Isolated corps keep advancing on Kiukiang, and get defeated piecemeal. Today, I attacked two lone Chinese corps in the plains west of Wuchang with an IJA division, and routed them.

I think I need to count the number of combat squads destroyed since the beginning of the game, but in Central China, that's quite a few defeated corps. I could probably advance now, but I want to see if I can keep this going for a while. Two divisions from Ichang will arrive in Wuchang tomorrow. I want to use them, together with this one as raiding force, to defeat all the units I could find in open terrain between Nanchang and Hankow.

In Chuhsien, we have a stalemate. The enemy is outnumbered two to one, the forts are gone, but good defensive terrain seems to prevent my two divisions from taking the city. I will try one more day, and rest…

The AVG has again disappeared. My hunch is that they will move to Chuhsien. I am bombing airfields in Chuhsien and Wenchow tomorrow.

As expected, the AVG reappeared over Chuhsien. Despite Tojos escorting them, four Betties were shot down. Meanwhile, we bombed Wenchow, destroyed four H81-A3 on the field, and damaged half a dozen. I am bombing Wenchow again tomorrow, see if I can catch more.

Air losses are slowly turning against us. Apart from the occasional success of the AVG, operational losses are mounting, and there are less enemy planes to shoot down, now that most of the planes on Luzon and in Burma are accounted for. Overall losses are still 3:2 in our favor, and average daily losses a bit better than 1:1, so there is no reason to complain.

Hard times in Ambon

The 2nd SNLF finally landed in Ambon, and the enemy is badly outnumbered. Yet a deliberate attack does not seem to help.

Enemy losses are higher than ours, so I suppose time is of the essence, as they say in contracts. More rest, and attacks, and more rest, and attacks again, will finally wear down the enemy and capture the base. I can handle that.

The rest of the Indies are very quiet. Pontianak fell, first try. I am taking small bases here and there, but nothing important is happening now. The next targets are Kendari and Macassar, obviously. An early capture of Kendari would relieve the pressure on the Ambon beachhead, but I probably need to sweep this area first, and shuttle planes and aviation support before that.

As a result, were in an operational pause of sorts. This is probably due to bad planning on my part. We’re not that late on schedule, on the other hand…

Kiukiang curiosity

A lone Chinese corps had advanced into Kiukiang, had been detected in advance, and was punished today. This hardly worth reporting, except for…

I had three units in Kiukiang, the 39th infantry division and the 12th mixed brigade were my main fighting force, but the Kyuko Naval guard unit, which garrisoned the city, also participated in the attack. This small unit was supplied, had a good morale (80), no fatigue or disruption, but took almost all the casualties, and was almost destroyed in the battle (from 56(4) to 7(5) infantry squads).

This is not a real problem, as it will rebuild, but it is curious, and suggests that small units should perhaps better be left out of such battles. Without the naval guard, the Chinese corps would have been trashed anyway…

Elsewhere in China, deliberate attacks in Loyang reduced the forts again, in Yenan they damaged the enemy, but I am mostly waiting for reinforcements. North of Paotow, a retreating Chinese corps was defeated again. My troops will now retreat and clear the road between Kweisui and Taiyuan, or, rather, damage the corps there to make sure they cannot try anything silly. I plan to build up in Paotow and march West towards Ningsia and Hami, but I am waiting for Yenan to fall to launch this operation.

Not much happened today. Off Pearl Harbor, an oiler was sunk and another one damaged. Is the enemy planning something? In Malaya, Malacca was captured. Next stop is Johore, and then Singapore.

In China, another day of bombing of the airfield in Wenchow destroyed a few more H81-A3. Bombardment of Loyang destroyed 35 squads, and another attack in Nanyang eliminated 25. Another Chinese corps was mauled close to Wuchang.

The war is a month old, and even though I feel I am not moving as fast as I should, the Japanese perimeter is already large, and we did not suffer any large loss, such as a sunk invasion fleet, or an assault that goes terribly wrong.

In Burma, the battle for Rangoon is about to begin. The enemy has partly evacuated the base, I believe they would rather fight around Magwe. In Malaya, we are in Malacca, and have faced little resistance so far. In the Philippines, only Bataan is held on Luzon, and we are making progress on Mindanao. On Borneo, we hold all the coast from Pontianak to Balikpapan.

In the Dutch Indies, I am now shifting troops to move against the Celebes. Ambon is a stalemate, but I don’t think the enemy can hold it for long. The South Pacific was the slowest theater, we still have not attacked Rabaul, but troops are on the move, and KB is out raiding.

In China, the situation is very good. Loyang and Yenan are poised to fall, and Nanyang is under siege. Enemy losses were very high, while ours remained reasonable.

VP wise, odds are 1 : 1.25. This is better than my previous games. Enemy air losses are about 50% higher than ours, ground losses are 12 times heavier.

I let this AAR lag behind. We have played the 13th of January today. Here’s a brief round up of last week. I apologize for the lack of style...

January 8th, 1942

It was a good day in the air. Buffaloes sortied over Singapore, and met sweeping Zeroes. 10 British planes were shot down. In another event, bombers were shot down over Kuala Lumpur. I am not sure why the enemy persists in attacking airfields in Malaya. Apart from an odd plane destroyed on the ground, losses to my CAP are very heavy.

In Loyang, fortifications are gone, raw AV odds are about 2:1, we destroyed 68 squads for a loss of three. I am trying again tomorrow, if the city does not fall, I will probably rest for a day. But in any case the end is near.

The Chinese have retreated in the plains, towards Sian. Four infantry divisions will pursue the Chinese. I want to damage them more before they get into defensive terrain. The rest of the stack, artillery, will move towards Nanyang. If the base hasn’t fallen by the time they arrive, they will support the assault, else, they will be ready to move either on Sian or on Ichang.

January 10th, 1942

Another good day in the air. Sweeps over Batavia shot down a handful of planes. Sorties from Singapore were slaughtered over Malacca and Johore.

KB went hunting in the Coral sea, and found targets. Light cruisers Achilles and Leander were sunk. In Rabaul, Betties from Truk found a troop transport, a light cargo, and a minelayer. This should keep the enemy honest for a while, all the better as my invasion of Rabaul is now sailing.

A deliberate attack in Nanyang only achieved 1:2 odds, but destroyed 100 enemy squads, to 15 ours. We are not strong enough for an easy capture of the city, but the enemy has not enough troops to counter attack. The siege is on.

Chuhsien fell, much to my surprise. As often when a stack is defeated in closed terrain, losses were heavy. Reconnaissance suggests this is the main force in the Wenchow area. Once it is defeated, Wenchow and the coast will fall easily.

Yenan, reinforced yesterday, was captured today. 13 units retreated towards Lanchow. I am resting the two divisions that spearheaded my advance in Shaanxi, and will pursue with the others. With Loyang and Yenan captured, and Nanyang under siege, the road to Sian is open.

Finally, a first bombardment in Bataan revealed the enemy has 1350 AV there. I have 1700, and a couple hundred more arriving in a few days. The bombardment caused no damage to the enemy, which suggests the fortifications are pretty good. I will now bomb the place, and try a deliberate attack in a week, to see whether I can reduce the forts. If so, I will try to take the place. Else, I will retire a division, maybe more, and prepare for a long siege. There is no point in wasting time on Luzon.

January 11th, 1942

Since the beginning of the war, my opponent has shifted troops in the area between Nanchang and Wuchang. We sortied and defeated exposed units, and repulsed a few piecemeal attempts to take Kiukiang. So far, all my bases are garrisoned and fortified, and the railroad from Sinyang and the Long River allow for supply movement. Yet, if all these units concentrated, and attacked a single base (Nanchang, for instance), they could do some damage.

To prevent this, two divisions that cleared the railroad between Hankow and Sinyang were dispatched to Wuchang, and joined another one there. This 1200 AV force has advanced towards Changsha, and defeated three Chinese corps today. With a little luck, my opponent will feel threatened and pull his troops back.

With the fall of Yenan, and Kweisui and Paotow garrisoned, the KMT units north of Taiyuan are stranded. One corps marched on Taiyuan today. Its move had been detected, and three divisions were waiting for it.

Finally, a first deliberate attack on Rangoon reduced the forts, and revealed the enemy has about 200 AV there. We have three times more. The Burma Road is closing…

January 12th, 1942

In Malaya, both Kuantuan and Mersing fell today. Nine units are reported in Johore. A division, a regiment, and assorted armored units will arrive tomorrow. I intend to reinforce Johore before I cross the Causeway. We should attack Singapore at the end of the month.

In Ambon, after a few days of rest, and aerial bombings, a deliberate attack finally succeeded in reducing the forts, and achieving 1:1 odds. The enemy seems to have given up on reinforcing the base.

In Nanyang, enemy raw AV went down 25% in two days. We destroyed more than 200 squads today. Fatigue is mounting, though, and we might need to rest soon.

This morning, SS I-123 patrolling between Borneo and the Celebes was attacked by a large surface force. She was hit, as often in shallow waters, but will survive. More importantly, the enemy task force was reported to include CL Adelaide and eight destroyers.

Later that day, the same task force, moving north east towards Balikpapan was attacked, without success, by Nells and Mabels based in Samarinda. CL Marblehead, CL Mauritius and CA Houston were reported. Finally, a second surface force was reported near the coast of Java, moving east, towards Ambon or Balikpapan.

I believe the first task force is moving on Balikpapan. Whether the second is there to reinforce or is moving on Ambon, I don’t know.

I have two cruisers, two light cruisers, four destroyers and a torpedo boat in Balikpapan, yet undetected. Mini KB is on the other side of the Celebes, and has been ordered to close in, on the other side of the island. I also have land based aircrafts in Samarinda, Balikpapan, Tarakan and Manado.

If the enemy comes to bombard the base, he will meet my task force, and chances are I can surprise him. We have roughly the same number of ships, so this should be a close call. However, I have lots of planes in the area that should be able to finish the cripples. Interesting times ahead…

Ambon at last

After several weeks of battles, it seems Ambon is finally ripe to fall. Today, a deliberate attack reduced the forts, and halved the assault value of the defenders (from 60 to 30). With a little luck, the base will be ours tomorrow. Without, we will have to rest, and attack again, and it will fall in two or three days. Kendari is the next target. Manado and Ternate will be our staging point for that invasion.

Our troops arrived in Johore, where the enemy seems to be making a stand. Ten units are reported there, this probably is a good thing: we have caught very little enemies during our Malayan campaign, and I would rather reduce enemy forces before going in for Singapore.

In Rangoon, a deliberate attack eliminated one unit, reduced the forts, and destroyed 35 squads. We are resting tomorrow, and will launch another attack on the fifteenth.

The large surface task force detected yesterday raided the straits between the Celebes and Borneo. The enemy came with CA Houston, CL Adelaide, Mauritius and Marblehead, and nine destroyers. Three Japanese destroyers on an ASW mission did not have enough time to retreat and were sunk, damaging CA Houston in the process.

All my ships, being in port already, will survive, but Java is definitely sunk. Both the cruiser force of the mini KB will try to sink remnants tomorrow, but even if they don’t, it was a good day for the IJN.

Trouble in Cagayan

So far, the campaign of Mindanao went fine, but then enemy is now concentrated in Cagayan, where the 146th infantry regiment faces a full strength PA division. The 144th, that just left Wake, has been sent to reinforce, as will the Amphibious brigade from Hainan. Altogether, this probably means several weeks of delay in the capture of Mindanao.

In Johore, a first deliberate attack reduced the forts, and revealed two indian brigades and the 27th Australian. I am not sure I understand the benefits of this first line of defense for the Allies.

In Nanyang, a deliberate attack destroyed 200 more Chinese squads. My artillery has arrived. I will now bombard, in order to reduce the enemy before the final assault. Once this stack is defeated, the road to Sian is open, and I doubt the enemy has lots of troops to garrison it.

Adelaide is sunk. Mauritius will probably escape. CA Houston suggests might be sunk, but then, the absence of three Allied DD (Whipple, Stewart and Encounter) might indicate she is still afloat, and trying to escape. We shall see…

The industry is 50% damaged, the facilities should be back online in a few days. The Burma road is now closed, and the conquest of China can begin. The fall of Rangoon caused a significant change in victory points. Today, the VP ratio changed side, going from 1.13:1 in favor of the Allies, to 1.06 :1 for the Empire.

Not just Rangoon

Rabaul had been evacuated, and was easily captured today. We are now moving on Gasmata, and then Lae.

On Mindanao, the Allies managed to chased the 146th Infantry Regiment out of Cagayan. Enemy losses were almost as high as ours.

It had been a while since I last did something very stupid (gamewise, of course, in real life, hardly a day goes without a blunder).

After the capture of Clark Field, my troops advanced on Bataan. Several days of inefficient bombardment showed the enemy had 1400 AV, against 1900 for us, behind forts. Any reasonable player would not launch an attack now. Here’s why:

Unfortunate as it is (especially for the general commanding the 14th Army, Evil Empires have little patience with scapegoats), the Bataan affair makes one fact obvious: Bataan will not fall soon, unless I commit very large forces to it.

We will have a siege, then, and this raises two questions. The enemy has 1500 AV, how many troops do I need to guard them, and what is the best way to reduce them?

I believe three division equivalents should be fine. In fact, 1000 AV is probably enough. The terrain is defensive for me, too. I am already retiring the 4th Infantry division (which is prepped for Singapore), and a few tank regiments. But I might remove more units later on.

As for how to reduce the enemy, I believe air, and land, bombardment is the way to go. So far, I used bombers from Takao. I will relocate them in Clark and Manila. Artillery units are being sent in, from Hong Kong.

The long war in China

The second day of bombardment in Nanyang was even better than the first : 140 squads and five guns were destroyed.

West of Taiyuan, two divisions joined two independent brigades and attacked two Chinese corps blocking the railway to Sian. It was another easy victory.

Between those two battles and few more air bombardments, the KMT lost 355 combat squads today. This is a little less than what they replace in a month (350 infantry and 40 HMG squads), and about 1% of the number of squads the Chinese begin the game with (31 500 infantry, 2 300 MMG and 1 100 Cavalry squads, according to Tracker).

Since the beginning of the war, 8 550 Chinese squads (combat squads, that is) were eliminated. Even accounting for replacements, this represents about a quarter of KMT forces. At this rate, we can hope to significantly reduce KMT strength by summer 1942. It also means that the enemy, having less troops, will better resist the supply shortage. You can’t have everything.

KB raided Cairns, sinking a few light cargoes, and Horn Island, damaging the port installations. We will now retire towards the Solomons, our next targets are Noumea and Suva. Then KB will retire to Truk, and remain there for a while.

After more than a month of war, I have the impression my opponent (whom I heartily recommend to other players, by the way, he’s a really nice person!) likes to play it safe. He has been trying a number of raid, and has been punishing me when I overextend, but he isn’t going for an aggressive defense. Against such a careful enemy, I believe KB is strongest while it remains a threat. Raids like this one are necessary to make the threat a reality, but KB should be hidden most of the time.

Last stop before Singers

Johore Baru fell today, with heavy enemy losses. Two units surrendered, one of them the 27th Australian (yay! As we say in Japanese)

All Malaya is now free of Allied units, and we are beginning to concentrate in Johore for the final assault on the Lion city. I have a little less than 2500 AV in the peninsula, and plan to reinforce them with the 4th ID from Luzon, and the 38th and 104th that are now in Nanning. The first assault on Singapore might take place at the beginning of February, and if everything goes fine, we should capture the city before the end of the month. Then we can do all the things evil armies like ours do in conquered cities, like fill our bellies with chicken rice and sugarcane, or play croquet on the lawns of Fort Canning…

Nanning

Before marching to Singapore, the 38th and 104th ID were tasked with taking Nanning. We crossed the river and shock attacked today, finding six units and 550 AV in town. This might take a few days. Once Nanning falls, these units need about three weeks to reach Singapore. I am expecting them by mid-February, for the final onslaught.

An uneventful day. The 16th Naval Guard easily captured Kendari . Wewak, on the northern coast of New Guinea, surrendered without a fight. North of Rangoon, the retreating Allied stack was defeated, and sent back into Prome. In Port Moresby, KB sank AM Bunburi. In Nanyang, air attacks destroyed 8 combat squads, and bombardment 47 more (and two guns). Enemy AV, once over 1600, is now below 600. I am attacking tomorrow. I believe those troops are too damaged to defend the major road to Sian. If I can advance fast enough, units between Sian and Loyang, and Sian and Taiyuan, all on slow roads, might be pocketed.

A quick look at industry and resources

Industrial capacity : As mentioned in the beginning of this AAR, I am trying to keep Japanese HI usage as low as I can. I have greatly reduced naval construction, halting most merchant programs, and a number of naval ones as well. As a result, I am hoarding HI points. I have 350 000 right now, and am saving about 7 500 every day. I am now using 784 naval and 168 merchant yards (this is on the low side), 221 vehicle (87 repairing) and 250 armament factories (190 stopped). Vehicle points are low but stable, armament production is probably a little low, as quite a few reinforcements are arriving now. Air frame and engine productions are going up, as industry expands and repairs. This is necessary, as the air war is quite intense. I am currently using about 7 700 HI per day (pilot training cost included). This means I am saving a day of future use every day.

Resources : With the capture of the Henan industrial basin (Loyang and Chengchow), I now produce more resources than I need. Stocks went down from 9.3 million to 9.15 million over the course of December, stabilized around 9.16 during the first half of January, and are now slowly increasing (9.19 million as we speak). This excess of resources has one advantage : I don’t need to set up long convoys to bring back production from remote corners of my empire (eg Nauru and Ocean island). Speaking of convoys, the resource situation in Japan is slowly stabilizing. At the beginning of the war, the Home Islands used 80 000 tons of resource stocks every day. Convoys from Hokkaido and Fusan have reduced this to about 10 000 tons. As a result, stocks in the Home Islands which represented two months surplus usage at game start will now last for about 15 months. In Hokkaido, resource stocks, which increased from 880 000 tons at the beginning of the war to 1.5 million tons in early January, are now diminishing.

Oil and fuel: Since the beginning of the war, oil production has more tripled (from 305 oilfields in December, to 940 and 170 repairing, today). As refining capacity also increased, we are using our stocks at the same rate, about 8 000 tons per day. Stocks are around 4.5 million tons now (down from 4.8 at game start), at this rate, they will be empty in about 15 months, at which stage some extra refining capacity can be shut down.

The oilfields we hold now (without Sumatra, Java and Burma), could produce about 10 000 tons of fuel per day, when repaired. My industrial needs (HI without hoarding) represent 7.5 tons/day. Fuel stocks (bunker fuel included) are now at 7.4 million tons, decreasing at about 7 000 tons per day. We refine 15.5 tons of fuel every day, which puts overall fuel usage at 22 500 tons, broken down as 14 500 for industry and 8 000 for ships. Deducing HI hoarding fuel use, I am consuming about 16 000 tons of fuel every day, which is about the quantity I refine every day. In other words, at this point of the game, with my navy mostly intact, Java, Sumatra, and Burma oilfields still in enemy hands, my fuel usage is balanced, and the daily deficits correspond to the building of HI stocks. This suggests a thrifty Japan, like mine, is much less dependent on DEI oil and fuel than is commonly thought.

Supply : After a steady decrease in December, mostly due to repairs and industrial expansion, supply stocks have now stabilized a little over 5 million tons. 60% of those are in Japan, most of the rest in China. The supply line from Korea to Malaysia is now open, so I probably need to convoy more supplies to the continent.

Industrial capacity : As mentioned in the beginning of this AAR, I am trying to keep Japanese HI usage as low as I can. I have greatly reduced naval construction, halting most merchant programs, and a number of naval ones as well. As a result, I am hoarding HI points. I have 350 000 right now, and am saving about 7 500 every day. I am now using 784 naval and 168 merchant yards (this is on the low side), 221 vehicle (87 repairing) and 250 armament factories (190 stopped). Vehicle points are low but stable, armament production is probably a little low, as quite a few reinforcements are arriving now. Air frame and engine productions are going up, as industry expands and repairs. This is necessary, as the air war is quite intense. I am currently using about 7 700 HI per day (pilot training cost included). This means I am saving a day of future use every day.

Resources : With the capture of the Henan industrial basin (Loyang and Chengchow), I now produce more resources than I need. Stocks went down from 9.3 million to 9.15 million over the course of December, stabilized around 9.16 during the first half of January, and are now slowly increasing (9.19 million as we speak). This excess of resources has one advantage : I don’t need to set up long convoys to bring back production from remote corners of my empire (eg Nauru and Ocean island). Speaking of convoys, the resource situation in Japan is slowly stabilizing. At the beginning of the war, the Home Islands used 80 000 tons of resource stocks every day. Convoys from Hokkaido and Fusan have reduced this to about 10 000 tons. As a result, stocks in the Home Islands which represented two months surplus usage at game start will now last for about 15 months. In Hokkaido, resource stocks, which increased from 880 000 tons at the beginning of the war to 1.5 million tons in early January, are now diminishing.

Oil and fuel: Since the beginning of the war, oil production has more tripled (from 305 oilfields in December, to 940 and 170 repairing, today). As refining capacity also increased, we are using our stocks at the same rate, about 8 000 tons per day. Stocks are around 4.5 million tons now (down from 4.8 at game start), at this rate, they will be empty in about 15 months, at which stage some extra refining capacity can be shut down.

The oilfields we hold now (without Sumatra, Java and Burma), could produce about 10 000 tons of fuel per day, when repaired. My industrial needs (HI without hoarding) represent 7.5 tons/day. Fuel stocks (bunker fuel included) are now at 7.4 million tons, decreasing at about 7 000 tons per day. We refine 15.5 tons of fuel every day, which puts overall fuel usage at 22 500 tons, broken down as 14 500 for industry and 8 000 for ships. Deducing HI hoarding fuel use, I am consuming about 16 000 tons of fuel every day, which is about the quantity I refine every day. In other words, at this point of the game, with my navy mostly intact, Java, Sumatra, and Burma oilfields still in enemy hands, my fuel usage is balanced, and the daily deficits correspond to the building of HI stocks. This suggests a thrifty Japan, like mine, is much less dependent on DEI oil and fuel than is commonly thought.

Supply : After a steady decrease in December, mostly due to repairs and industrial expansion, supply stocks have now stabilized a little over 5 million tons. 60% of those are in Japan, most of the rest in China. The supply line from Korea to Malaysia is now open, so I probably need to convoy more supplies to the continent.

I think you're going a bit too far toward conservation and HI build-up. You will need a lot of the ships you will be forced to cancel at those levels of production. You can go without the Yamatos if you want to , but that's not much fun. You'll want to accelerate several CVs, and there is no replacement for lots more escorts and DDs that are coming along. This is the time to have them, up until 43 when Japan is strong and can make use of the extra stuff. Turn off more merchant yards when you've built a pool and you have all of the TKs and AOs built.

As for resources, it is good to ship from shorter distances away. I've basically gotten ALL of the resources from Hokkaido and Sakhalin, so I had to stop a few convoys to slow down the draw. Fusan is also a major help when you get that working, shortening your lines and getting a big port to work with. On the other hand, what do your ships already sailing back to the HI carry if no resources are gathered from the more remote bases in the DEI or even in the Pacific?

I've had several CS convoys of xAKLs that I would otherwise have no use for set up to carry from Macassar to Soerabaja, Davao, Boela and Kendari to Babeldaop, and from bases around the W Borneo and Singapore area to Singers, as well as a few to Nauru and Ocean. I know you're not there yet, but it's working really well for me and it's a set up and forget kind of project. Also, the US subs seem fond of attacking all of these small insignificant ships, wasting the good and bad torps day after day while letting the troop ships sail right on by.

I have some merchant ships turned off now as well as a few planes and a lot of the armament factories. But after I've built the pools. You will need them. I'm banking 5k HI a day now and hope to have over 1,000,000 by the end of 42. I still have more HI to build up in Singapore and in other spots on java and in China. This will be my biggest addition to the HI pools in the future.

@pax : nice to see you here! I’m of course flattered, but unworthy of the comparison.

@obvert : very good points, as always. After reading your comments, I had a look at my ship planning. Whereas I build almost no merchant ships, my naval program cuts, so far, mostly amount to the two battleships. I do intend to stop the late war (1945) CV and CVE, but those are not decisions to make now. My main worries, at the moment, are the submarines. I originally intended to build all of them, because I thought they can keep the enemy honest, even late in the war. Yet, seeing how harmless they are so far, I am beginning to have second thoughts about it.

As for the merchants, there is something circular in the reasoning. If convoys can be limited to cabotage (along routes like Palembang-Singapore, Fusan-Fukuoka, Hakodate-Ominato, Takao-Amoy…) you need less ships, which means less fuel, and therefore less convoys from the DEI to the Home Islands, and less dependence on DEI oil. This means I can stop all the cargoes and most of the tankers (keeping in mind that if this strategy proves wrong, I can restart some of them at a later stage…), and this means less HI, and therefore less oil needed in the Home Islands.

This is not frugality for frugality’s sake. I believe my opponent, like most AFB, assumes oil is Japan’s weak point, and that if he succeeds in denying me access to the oilfields (either through Palembang fortress approaches in the early game, or through early attempts at reconquering the East Indies), the end of the war will become easy. My plan is to foil this attempt, by depending less on the fuel. This means I can sustain a long attrition war in the SRA, which I can easily reinforce once China has fallen.

My strategic plan is not quite set, but here is the general idea: take China out of the war, use my units there to build a reserve, and fight (and win) a long attrition battle in the Indies (where I enjoy shorter lines).

January 19th, 1942

Blood in the skies

Since the beginning of the war, air losses have remained at very high levels. Today, each of us lost about 20 planes. I am still winning this part of the war (563 planes lost, for 793 enemies) but increases in operation losses are reducing my edge.

Today, we swept Singapore (three enemies downed), and Surabaya (six downed), and bombed China. The enemy tried to bomb our airfields in Malaya, without much success, and managed to intercept some bombers over Nanning.

The fall of Nanyang

This was the most important piece of news today. After a week of bombardment, the city fell to a deliberate attack. Chinese losses were heavy.

This battle (and another one near Wuchang where 150 squads were destroyed) puts KMT combat squad losses to 9 650 since the beginning of the war.

The enemy retreated towards Sian. I will pursue along the major road. Troops retreating from Loyang, Taiyuan and Yenan are falling back on Sian, but on secondary roads. The race is on… If my opponent has no reserves on the road to Sian, I will probably win it.

ORIGINAL: fcharton My main worries, at the moment, are the submarines. I originally intended to build all of them, because I thought they can keep the enemy honest, even late in the war. Yet, seeing how harmless they are so far, I am beginning to have second thoughts about it.

I understand your concerns. In my recent games, I have stopped building them except for the Glen subs. I use the Glens for long range recon and intel. They are so expensive and not as useful as other items.