A faction of football fans don't want to see preseason college football polls. They would rather wait until the third, fourth of fifth week of the season. That way, teams play a few games, and it's a way to rank teams without using reputation or history.

The polls are great for discussion and great for business. But as we saw last weekend with Appalachian State's victory over then-No. 5 Michigan, the polls can be misleading so early in the season.

What's that have to do with the NFL? The NFL isn't all that different. Oh, there's a handful of teams that are expected to be good – the Colts, the Chargers, the Bears, the Saints.

This early in the season, it's difficult to get a good read on teams. You can't analyze preseason games and you can't rely on last season's performance. As USA TODAY's Chris Colston pointed out in his blog recently, more than half the playoff teams in 2006 and 2005 did not make the postseason the previous year.

Even if there are just three or four new playoff teams this season and not seven, who are they? The Rams, the Lions, Packers, Titans, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, Steelers? Who? It takes a few weeks (or longer) for those teams to emerge.

That's why I asked my boss if I could hold off making picks for four weeks. Come back in Week 5, then have at it. That way, I'd have a better handle on who's good and who's bad. Since I'm here today, you know what his response was.

(Just a heads up, I like a lot of road teams this week.)

Colts 28, Saints 24  New Orleans
(+6) at Indianapolis

The Super Bowl champs opening the season on a Thursday in front of the
home fans on national TV. Take the Colts. Just don't expect much defense.
Which will suit most fine, especially fantasy football enthusiasts. Peyton
Manning, Drew Brees, Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Marvin
Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston and Devery Henderson all in the
same game.

Texans 21, Chiefs 17  Kansas
City (+3) at Houston

The Texans are hoping Matt Schaub is the answer. He has offensive talent
to work with, and the Texans have an improving defense. For Week 1, I
have faith in the Texans.

Broncos 23, Bills 20  Denver
(-3) at Buffalo

There's reason for optimism in Buffalo. But the Bills need to produce
before that optimism extends into something tangible. Denver is 29-17-1
in season openers, second best in AFC, and the Broncos have beaten Buffalo
four straight times, including in Buffalo in 2005.

Steelers 24, Browns 13  Pittsburgh
(-4½) at Cleveland

Cleveland coach Romeo Crennel is 0-4 against the Steelers, who have won
12 of the past 13 against the Browns. Crennel might not be on the hot
seat now, but the chair is warm. It's still honeymoon time for first-year
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. But get a load of this classic note: The Steelers
have not lost in Ohio since 2001.

Jaguars 28, Titans 21  Tennessee
(+6½) at Jacksonville

Under coach Jack Del Rio, the Jaguars have been a perplexing team, ready
to make a run one week and ready to run and hide the next. This week,
they will look like a team ready to make a run.

Rams 26, Panthers 21  Carolina
(+1) at St. Louis

The Indianapolis Colts proved that a modicum of defense and plenty of
offense can win a championship. The Rams will try to follow that blueprint.

Eagles 23, Packers 21  Philadelphia
(-3) at Green Bay

Entering his eighth NFL season, why does it seem Eagles quarterback Donovan
McNabb has been in the league almost as long as Packers quarterback Brett
Favre, who is heading into his 17th year?

Falcons 24, Vikings 16  Atlanta
(+3) at Minnesota

It simply won't be an easy season for the Falcons. It will be interesting
to see how Atlanta handles a Vick-less year and all the questions that
come with that each week.

Redskins 17, Dolphins 10  Miami
(+3) at Washington

What then, if the Redskins can't win this game? The Joe Gibbs experiment
hasn't exactly rekindled visions of Super Bowls.

Patriots 21, Jets 18  New England
(-6½) at N.Y. Jets

A good one right off the bat: Patriots vs. Jets. Belichick vs. Mangini.
If the Jets are serious about winning the division title, they need to
make a statement in Week 1 and win this game.

Seahawks 28, Buccaneers 14 
Tampa Bay (+6) at Seattle

Playing in the NFC West, the Seahawks will need all the wins they can
get. Luckily for them, they get the Buccaneers at home to start.

Chargers 24, Bears 14  Chicago
(-6) at San Diego

USA TODAY's Jarrett Bell had a great line when he wrote that Chargers
coach Norv Turner has been "entrusted with the keys to an NFL Ferrari."
Let's see how Turner does on a his first spin with the car against the
NFC champions.

Lions 28, Raiders 21  Detroit
(-2) at Oakland

OK, enough talk of what Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz is going
to do with all that offensive talent. It's time to show instead of tell.
Sure, defense is important, and eventually the Lions will have to stop
a team but that shouldn't be a problem here.

Cowboys 27, Giants 17  N.Y.
Giants (+5½) at Dallas

With no Bill Parcells in Dallas, the drama should be at a minimum this
year even with Terrell Owens. There will be plenty of drama with the Giants
this year with the Eli Manning Watch, the Tom Coughlin Watch and Tiki
Barber commenting on each misstep along the way.

Bengals 20, Ravens 17  Baltimore
(-2½) at Cincinnati

Both are quality teams with quality coaches. Just happen to like the
Bengals a tad more in this game  the home team in a division game
and all.

49ers 30, Cardinals 26  Arizona
(+3) at San Francisco

This should be a fun game with two good young quarterbacks
(Matt Leinart and Alex Smith). Both teams are on their way up. Which one
climbs faster?

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