3 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH The Polish economy maintained its momentum in H1 215 on the back of the recovery of the labour market, low prices and improving industrial output and retail sales. Industrial sales rose 4.6% compared with H1 214 while annual retail sales at constant prices in June 215 were 6.6% higher, representing an increase of 3.8% in current prices. The GDP growth is forecast to hit 3.6% in 215, a rise of.2 percentage points on 214. The Polish economy is expected to remain one of the top performers in the next years, but its high momentum will be maintained provided that major structural reforms are pushed through by the new parliament following the October parliamentary elections. ECONOMIC SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS F 216F GDP growth Consumer spending Industrial production Investment Unemployment rate (%) Inflation EUR/PLN (average) US$/PLN (average) Interest rates: 3-month (%) Interest rates: 1-year (%) *ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED, F FORECAST SOURCE: OXFORD ECONOMICS LTD. AND CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC FISCAL POLICY AND BUDGET Poland s deficit, which rose to over PLN 26.15bn in H1 215, was nonetheless PLN 1.2bn lower than initially projected by the Ministry of Finance. It constitutes 56.7% of the limit set out in the 215 budget law (PLN 46.8bn). At the end of May 215 the national debt amounted to PLN 81.22bn, up by 3.9% compared with the end of 214. The draft budget for 216 projects a 3.8% GDP growth and the average annual inflation rate at 1.7%. INTEREST RATES In March 215 the Polish Monetary Council cut the National Bank of Poland s reference rate by 5 basis points, bringing it down to a record low of 1.5% per annum. Since March 213 it has already made 26 decisions either to reduce or to keep interest rates unchanged. However, given the good economic performance of Poland, its monetary policy is expected to tighten slightly by the end of December 215. Following its most recent interest rate cut of.1 percentage points in September 214, the European Central Bank kept its reference rate at.5% and its negative interest rate on deposits at -.2%. EXCHANGE RATES In H1 215, there were major swings in exchange rates between the Polish zloty and the world s major currencies due to the political uncertainty in Greece and doubts clouding the EMU s future. Since the beginning of 215 the USD to PLN exchange rate hovered between PLN 3.56 and PLN 3.93, averaging PLN The Polish zloty was the strongest against the euro at PLN 3.98 in mid-april, weakening to PLN 4.14 at the end of June 215. Investors are now more preoccupied with the FED s potential steps and speculations about its first hikes in interest rates may weaken demand for the currencies of emerging markets. However, the Polish Monetary Council s pledge to keep its interest rates unchanged or raise them slightly is likely to strengthen Poland s currency. RETAIL SALES* Retail sales H1 215 PMI Poland EU (28 countries) Euro zone (19 countries) Poland Sweden Germany Czech Rep. Spain *except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, **January 28 r. = 1 SOURCE: EUROSTAT, MONEY.PL, JULY 215 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Poland Czech Rep. Sweden Spain EU Germany Euro zone -1.% -.5%.%.5% 1.% 1.5% 2.% 2.5% 3.% 3.5% 4.% GDP growth 215F HICP 215F PMI Poland SOURCE: OXFORD ECONOMICS LTD. AND CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC 4

5 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication OFFICE MARKET Total transaction volume on the office market in H1 215 reached around EUR 374m, a 48% fall on the corresponding period in 214. This strong underperformance was the effect of the shrinking supply of attractive and fully-leased properties in Warsaw. The record-high provision of new office space for more than a year brought rents down and pushed vacancy rates up, which discouraged investors interested primarily in investment security. Consequently, the office transaction volume in Warsaw fell by 58% compared with H1 214, the largest deal being the acquisition of the Pacific Office Building in the Mokotów district by the US fund Hines Poland Sustainable Income for EUR 5m. Investor focus is increasingly shifting to regional cities which in H1 215 outperformed Warsaw for the first time ever with trading volumes rising to EUR 229m, which represented a rise of around 3% on the figure recorded in H Investor interest was particularly focused on Krakow, where two office parks changed hands: Enterprise Park in the Podgórze district was acquired by Tristan Capital Partners and Kazimierz Office Centre was sold to GLL for EUR 42m. The largest deals in other regional cities included the Griffin Group s acquisition of Green Horizon in Łódź for EUR 65m and GNT s acquisition of West House 1B in Wrocław. High investment activity is pushing prices up outside Warsaw with prime yields in regional cities falling below 7%. OFFICE INVESTMENT DEALS H1 215 SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % OFFICE INVESTMENT VOLUME BY LOCATION 61% 24% RETAIL MARKET 36% H % SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 Transaction volume on the retail market in H1 215 totalled EUR 271m, down by 27% on the corresponding period in 214, which represented the smallest fall in trading volumes of all the investment market sectors. An improvement in investment activity is, however, on the cards given the recently-signed large preliminary purchase deals, including the Riviera Shopping Centre in Gdynia for EUR 291m. Properties in medium-sized cities with a population of 1, to 4, garnered major investor interest, accounting for 63% of the transaction volume in the retail sector. Examples include the acquisition of shopping centres Sarni Stok in Bielsko-Biała and Focus Mall in Rybnik by German investment fund Union Investment and the sale of the Solaris shopping centre in Opole to Rockcastle from South Africa for EUR 52m. The largest deal in the key Polish cities was TH Real Estate s purchase of a 5% stake in Neinver s three retail properties, two in Krakow and one in Warsaw. High demand for attractive retail properties has led to a fall in prime yields by around 25 basis points compared with the previous six months, standing now at around 5% for the largest cities and at 6.5% for medium-sized cities. 4% As rising prices of prime retail properties encourage vendors to come forward, the retail sector s transaction volume is likely to surge in the forthcoming months becoming the main driver of the Polish investment market s growth. 34% Warsaw CL Warsaw NCL Other cities 6

7 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication OFFICE MARKET WARSAW The Warsaw market continues with high supply pressure that began in 212. The large number of office buildings coming on stream is expected to result in a rapid rise in vacancies in the forthcoming quarters although the vacancy rate is currently rising gradually thanks to high absorption. With low borrowing costs developers are launching new projects to secure both new and existing tenants of Warsaw office buildings. Companies whose leases are due to expire soon are now able to take up office space on more favourable conditions. The competitiveness of many office buildings, both existing and under construction, is being put to the test as a result of the improving market liquidity. Competition for tenants is becoming more fierce and effective rents are frequently lower by more than 25% than headline rents given the incentives in lease packages offered by both developers and owners. Headline rents at EUR 25/sq m/month are now unlikely in new office buildings in prime locations and only a handful of niche schemes offering exceptional quality and location may command rents beyond that level. The public sector continues to account for a considerable share in total take-up (11,3 sq m), but demand for office space comes largely from banking, financial and insurance companies (78 9 sq m), the IT sector (77,1 sq m) and professional services (49,4 sq m). WARSAW OFFICE MARKET CENTRAL NON CENTRAL WARSAW LOCATIONS LOCATIONS Number of buildings Stock (sq m) Total vacancy (sq m) Vacancy rate (%) SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 SUPPLY In H1 215, more than 147, sq m of modern office space was delivered onto the Warsaw market, nearly 53,5 sq m less than in H This brought the capital city s total stock to almost 4.54 million sq m at the end of June 215, a rise of nearly 3.2% compared with year-end 214. In the first six months of 215 fourteen schemes were completed, only two of which were delivered in Central Locations (CL). The largest completions were HB Reavis Postępu 14 (34,3 sq m) and Europa Capital s refurbished Spektrum Tower (27,3 sq m). Other office buildings added to the capital city s stock include Kronos Real Estate s Nestle House in Domaniewska Street (17,6 sq m), Echo Investment s phase two of Park Rozwoju (16,8 sq m) and Asbud s Karolkowa Business Park (14,65 sq m). The majority of new space was delivered in Lower Mokotów (US, 74,7 sq m) and the Core (27,3 sq m). No new office space was added to the stock of two zones: SW1 and SW2. The largest schemes under construction in Warsaw include two office towers: Ghelamco s Warsaw Spire Tower (61, sq m) and Echo Investment s Q22 (5, sq m) near the junction of Grzybowska and Jana Pawła II streets. Other advanced projects are: HB Reavis phase two of the Gdański Business Center (44,9 sq m), Karimpol s Cirrus building of the Equator complex (3,5 sq m) and Hines phase one of the Proximo complex (29, sq m). Overall, nearly 22, sq m of office space is scheduled to come onto the Warsaw market by the end of 215, bringing this year s total supply to 366, sq m, the highest since 2. Based on developers forecasts, most office space (nearly 46, sq m) will be delivered by 219 in the Fringe. TAKE-UP Leasing activity in Warsaw is rising as expected. In H1 215, total take-up reached sq m, representing a rise of nearly 5% on the same period of 214. Over 35% of leases were for space in Central Locations (CL) in contrast to almost 25,1 sq m transacted in Non-Central Locations, up by nearly 28% on H Occupier activity focused on the Upper South zone (US, 118,6 sq m) and the Northern zone (N, 44,5 sq m). The lowest take-up was noted in Ursynów (LS) and the South-Western 2 zone (SW2) at 7,4 sq m and 9,5 sq m, respectively. In H1 215 the number of pre-lets rose to more than 66,6 sq m, accounting for over two-thirds of 214 s total volume. Renegotiations accounted for 27% of Warsaw s total take-up while the share of new leases stood at 65%, a rise of 13 percentage points on H The largest transaction was the pre-let of 21,1 sq m at Ghelamco s Warsaw Spire Tower signed by Samsung Electronics. Other major deals included the lease of 17,5 sq m in HB Reavis Konstruktorska Business Center by the PZU Group companies, Ernst & Young s lease extension of 13,5 sq m in Rondo 1 of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, and Aviva s 12, sq m lease in HB Reavis Gdański Business Center. The largest expansion was the 5, sq m lease signed by Poczta Polska in the PHN Group s Domaniewska Office Hub. Leasing activity has already started to pick up in line with the economic cycle, strongly spurred by the expiry of ten-year leases signed in the 8

8 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication years and five-year leases signed in when take-up was high. In the current market conditions this year s deal volume on the Warsaw office market is likely to reach a record high of 7, sq m, compared 214 s total take-up of 69,2 sq m. VACANCY Following a slight correction in early 215, the vacancy rate rose to 14.1% at the end of Q2 215, up by.8 percentage points on the rate recorded at year-end 214 and up by nearly 2.4 percentage points on that at year-end 213. The nominal volume of vacant space increased since January 215 to 639, sq m, representing a rise of 52,6 sq m. The vacancy rate stood at more than 1% in seven out of ten office zones, the highest being in the Core (17.5%), the Wola zone (W, 16.4%) and the Lower Mokotów zone (US, 16%). The largest volume of unoccupied CONCENTRATION OF MODERN OFFICE SPACE IN WARSAW TAKE-UP IN WARSAW sq m H1 215 Take-up CL Take up NCL SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 TAKE-UP IN WARSAW BY TYPE OF TRANSACTION sq m H1 215 New deals Renewal Expansion Owner occupier SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 space was in the Mokotów District (US), where another 6,3 sq m became vacant in H By contrast, the lowest vacancy rates were recorded on the right bank of Warsaw (E) and in Wilanów (SE) at 6.5% and 9.2%, respectively, largely due to low office supply in these locations where only three small buildings were delivered since January 215: X2 Boutique Office (6,519 sq m), Arche s Pileckiego office building (3,48 sq m) and the KR Group s head office (2,7 sq m). The largest decline in vacancies of 8.9 percentage points since year-end 214 was recorded in the Northern zone (N) following the lease of more than 13, sq m in Gdański Business Center 1 and the commercial success of the Śródmieście building of the Dzielna 6 complex. Despite high absorption, the rising number of office buildings coming on stream will continue to push both the nominal volume of vacant space and percentage vacancy rates up to 15% by the end of 215. This trend is expected to continue at least until mid-217. SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY

9 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication ABSORPTION Absorption in Warsaw in H1 215 stood at 93,6 sq m, accounting for nearly 52% of the level of 181,2 sq m recorded last year. High absorption was noted in Central Locations (3,9 sq m), the best performance in this zone for the first two quarters of the year since 27. It appears, therefore, that by offering more favourable lease conditions owners and developers of office buildings in Central Locations are able to face up to the competition of less attractive locations. Absorption is likely to remain high and to match or exceed the very high figure noted in 214. Positive absorption is expected to continue at least until year-end 216, depending on economic conditions. SUPPLY AND ABSORPTION IN WARSAW BY LOCATION Supply (sq m) H Absorption (sq m) RENTS With office supply outstripping absorption, both office building owners and developers are finding it difficult to keep rents stable. Prime headline rents in Central Locations (CL) very rarely exceed EUR 24.75/sq m/month, usually standing at EUR /sq m/ month. Non-Central Locations (NCL) fetch EUR /sq m/ month, but prime office buildings outside the city centre never command less than EUR 13.5/sq m/month. The greatest pressure on rents is in the Lower Mokotów area, where prime rents rarely exceed EUR 14.5/sq m/month, which represents a fall of EUR.5/sq m/month compared with H Benefiting from strong occupier interest in the northern part of Warsaw, developers of prime office buildings are able to secure rents at EUR 16.5/sq m/ month. The lowest prime headline rents at EUR 13.5/sq m/month were again in the Ursynów district (LS). Additional incentives offered to tenants such as rent-free periods of 6-1 months are helping to keep rents stable. Turn-key office space delivered to tenants is becoming a common market standard. Other important features include low service charges standing at PLN 16-24/sq m/month depending on the building and the favourable add-on factor which is below 5% for the most efficient office buildings. Rents may continue to edge down further in the forthcoming quarters, depending on demand and the strength of competition between owners of existing office buildings and developers. Supply CL Supply NCL Absorption CL Absorption NCL SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 PRIME RENTS AND VACANCY IN WARSAW 35 18% SUPPLY, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY RATE IN WARSAW sq m 35 16% 3 14% 12% 25 1% 2 8% 15 6% 1 4% 5 2% EUR/sq m/month H1 215 Prime rents - CL Vacancy - CL Prime rents - NCL Vacancy - NCL 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Vacancy rate H1 215 % SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 Supply Absorption Vacancy rate (%) SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 1

10 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication REGIONAL MARKETS OFFICE STOCK In H1 215 modern office stock in Poland s six regional cities, including Krakow, Wrocław, Tricity, Poznań, Katowice and Łódź, rose to more than 3,, sq m, accounting for around 66% of Warsaw s total office space. Krakow remains the second-largest office market after Warsaw with over 752, sq m, followed by Wrocław with 651,4 sq m and Tricity with 538,744 sq m. Total office stock of each of the other three regional markets is less than 4, sq m. SUPPLY In H1 215, 25 office buildings were delivered onto the regional markets totalling 189,2 sq m, which represented a rise of 99,3 sq m on the corresponding period of 214. The largest new supply was recorded in Poznań and Wrocław at 45,7 sq m and 23,8 sq m, respectively, while one of the smallest was in Katowice (down by 7, sq m compared with H1 214). Seven office projects completed in 215 provide more than 1, sq m of leasable space each, the largest being Vastint s Business Garden complex in Marcelińska Street in Poznań offering 41,9 sq m. Other major office buildings include Echo Investment s West Gate in Wrocław (16, sq m), TPS s Olivia Six of the Olivia Business Center in Gdańsk (15, sq m) and Skanska s Dominikański building A in Wrocław (13,3 sq m). Office projects under construction include Vastint s phase one of Business Garden in Wrocław (36, sq m), Skanska s phase two of Dominikański in Wrocław (23, sq m) and Torus s phase two of Alchemia in Gdańsk (21,5 sq m). The development pipeline is the highest in Krakow and Wrocław, where more than 271,5 sq m is expected to be completed by the end of 216 while by the end of December 215 some 14,8 sq m is scheduled to be added to the Krakow market alone. TAKE UP Leasing activity on the main regional markets rose in the first two quarters of 215 to more than 217,2 sq m, accounting for over close to 59% of 214 s total take-up. Given the strong occupier demand, more than 4, sq m is expected to be transacted in 215. The largest leasing volume was noted in Kraków, which accounted for 3.5% of total take-up in H1 215, followed by Tricity (24.2%) and Wrocław (18.5%). At the other end of the spectrum, Łódź and Poznań recorded the smallest leasing volumes at 9.7% and 7.8% of this year s take-up, respectively. Krakow also attracted the largest volume of new leases (47,2 sq m), expansions (6,3 sq m) and deals involving owner occupation of buildings (11,7 sq m) while renegotiations commanded the largest market share in Tricity (17,3 sq m). The biggest deals of H1 215 include energy sector company s lease of 21,999 sq m in DOT Office in Krakow, owner occupation of 11,7 sq m in Krakow by Comarch SA and PKP Cargo SA s lease of 7,65 sq m in building two of the A4 Business Park in Katowice. ABSORPTION Office space absorption in the regional cities stood at 16,3 sq m in H1 215, the highest semi-annual figure on record, compared to 214 s total of 275,3 sq m. The largest amount of space occupied by tenants was recorded in Tricity (4,9 sq m), Wrocław (4,4 sq m) and Łódź (29,1 sq m). Compared with H1 214, the strongest performance in H1 215 was in Wrocław and Łódź with absorption at 25,2 sq m and 17,6 sq m, respectively, while negative absorption was noted in Krakow (-9,2 sq m) and Katowice (-6 sq m). VACANCY The average vacancy rate in the six regional cities stood at 9.3% at the end of June 215, more than 1.1 percentage points higher than in H The record high vacancy of 21.1% was noted in Poznań, up by nearly 9.6 percentage points compared with the end of June 214, which was largely the effect of delivery of the Poznań Business Garden with more than 38,1 sq m of vacant space as at the end of Q A large volume of vacant space is also available in Wrocław, which offers around 71,35 sq m, accounting for more than 1.9% of the city s total office stock. Compared with Q2 214, the vacancy rate fell most sharply in Łódź (2.9 percentage points). The average vacancy rate for the six regional cities has been stable at around 9% since 212, which is evidence of a very good balance between supply and demand. RENTS Prime rents in regional cities remained flat, ranging from EUR 13/sq m/month in Łódź to EUR 15.5/sq m/month in Wrocław. The average rent on the six regional markets stands at EUR 14.5/sq m/month. 11

12 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication RETAIL MARKET SUPPLY OF MODERN RETAIL SPACE 8 New retail space supply in H1 215 totalled 176,8 sq m, increasing Poland s total floorspace to 1.5 million sq m. This included the openings of seven new retail schemes and extensions of nine existing properties, the latter accounting for 43% of the new space provision by the end of June 215. sq m The largest shopping centre opened in H1 215 was Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin providing 38, sq m while other new developments and extensions were much smaller. New retail space delivered in small-scale schemes of up to 1, sq m GLA accounted for 21% total supply in H1 215 and 37% of total provision in new retail properties. All in all, retail supply in H1 215 was down by more than 3% on H1 214 s total largest agglomerations cities of 1k-2k population *FORECAST cities of 2k-4k population cities below1k population H * Around 8, sq m of retail space is currently under construction and around 439, sq m of this total is to come onto the market in 215. The largest shopping centres to open in H2 215 and the largest to be delivered in 215 include Zielone Arkady (51, sq m GLA) in Bydgoszcz and Sukcesja (46, sq m GLA) in Łódź. In addition, the largest extension currently underway for more than a dozen months of the Bielany Retail Park is expected to complete by the end of 215. Some 35, sq m will be added to the scheme to be renamed Aleja Bielany. According to the latest estimates, Poland s modern retail supply will total 616, sq m in 215, a rise of almost 3% on 214 s figure. The eight largest Polish cities will account for nearly 38% of new retail space to be constructed this year in contrast to just 9% or 42, sq m delivered in 214, representing more than a fourfold rise on 214 s new provision. More than 67% of this year s new supply will come onto the markets of large cities above 2, inhabitants in contrast to 214, when 7% of new retail space was delivered in cities below 2, inhabitants, including 48% in cities below 1, inhabitants. SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 RETAIL SPACE SUPPLY AND SALES Retail space (year to year growth) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% * 216* Retail space Retail sales *FORECAST SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 SUPPLY IN H1 215 BY FACILITY FORMAT AND DEVELOPMENT TYPE 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Retail sales (year to year growth) Expansions, upgrades and redevelopments are expected to account for 18,8 sq m, making up nearly one-third of this year s total retail supply. This represents a twofold rise on 214 s figure of 89, sq m (19% of total 214 supply). The volume of space coming onto the market through modernizations and expansions is rising as more than half of Polish retail space that was constructed over ten years ago is becoming increasingly outdated and needs to be upgraded. Other factors include greater customer expectations about a retail and non-retail offer, as well as increasing competition between brick-and-mortar and online stores. 39% 7% 4% 4% 46% New retail parks SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 Retail parks extensions New shopping centres Shopping centres extensions New outlet centres 13

13 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication SUPPLY IN H1 215 BY CITY SIZE Total 215* H2 215* H1 215 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Agglomerations Cities of 1k-2k population Cities of 2k-4k population Cities below 1k population SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY % *PROGNOZA AGE STRUCTURE OF RETAIL SPACE IN POLAND IN H % 54% SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 above 1 years 5-1 years below 5 years Demand for retail space remained at a healthy level in H Tenants focused on established retail schemes offering high footfall and satisfactory revenues. Re-marketed and upgraded (refurbished and expanded) shopping centres are an increasingly attractive alternative to newly-constructed space. In addition to well-known retailers expanding their footprint, in H1 215 demand for retail space also came from brands opening their first stores in Poland, largely in Warsaw s shopping centres. The new market entrants included Schiever s fashion brand Kiabi in Blue City, the children s fashion brand Jacadi in the Klif Fashion Mall, the sports footwear brand Courir and the cosmetics brand Origins, both opening in Galeria Mokotów, the fashion brand Superdry opening in Złote Tarasy, and the US fast-food chain Fuddruckers in Wola Park. Other newcomers to the Warsaw market included the first Polish store of the international brand Dsquared2 Kids, offering fashion collections for children, in Trzech Krzyży square, and the first boutique of a new Polish fashion brand Manor of Elegance, opening in Mokotowska Street. Brands that made their debuts outside Warsaw were: Esprit Bodywear offering lingerie and underwear in Galeria Krakowska, the sports fashion and footwear brand Decimas opening in Wrocław s Magnolia, the men s and women s fashion brand Colin s in Krakow s Bonarka, and Doctor Candy, which opened its sweets store in Lublin s Atrium Felicity. The homeware sector is represented by a new Polish brand à Tab, which opened its brick-and-mortar stores in shopping centres e.g. in Gdynia, Warsaw, Krakow, Lublin and Toruń shortly after its online debut. Brands planning to enter the Polish market in H2 215 include the Scandinavian women s fashion brand Lykke to open in Krakow s Galeria Bronowice, the US fast-food chain Dairy Queen in Warsaw s Wola Park, the urban fashion brand Gate and the sports brand Sportisimo to open their stores in Jelenia Góra s Nowy Rynek shopping centre. Tallinder, a new high-end fashion brand of the LPP Group, will make its debut in Poland in Q1 216, planning to open 2 stores next year. Meanwhile, several brands disappeared from the Polish market, including Bata, which closed all its Polish stores by April 215 and officially ended its retail operations in Poland, and Atlantic, which is closing down its business following its bankruptcy in June. Due to the current demand level, the marketing period for new schemes has become much longer and few shopping centres are fully let when they open. Vacancies in newly-opened retail schemes average 1-15%. The average vacancy rate for retail facilities in the largest Polish cities stands at 3.1% owing to the growing volume of vacant space in secondary schemes, particularly on oversupplied markets. In June 215, the highest vacancies were recorded in Bydgoszcz (6.4%), Częstochowa (5.6%) and Radom (5.1%), while the lowest were in Warsaw (1.5%) and Szczecin (1.6%). The highest rents are in Warsaw s prime shopping centres at EUR 8-9/sq m/month for a clothing unit of 1-15 sq m and at EUR 12-14/sq m/month for the most attractive units. In the other seven conurbations average rents stand at EUR 35-45/sq m/month, and at EUR 2-3/sq m/month in small and medium-sized cities. E-commerce, including mobile commerce (m-commerce), is gaining an increasing market share and becoming intertwined with traditional retailing. Most brands across all sectors are now strongly focused on omnichannel presence by combining in-store experience with online shopping. Most of them have already launched online stores. On the other hand, online retailers are now opening physical pop-up stores or taking up retail space on standard lease terms in traditional shopping centres. Co-existence of various distribution channels and combination of different shopping opportunities are the key features of the modern retail market. 14

16 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication VACANCY RATES IN H1 215 ESTIMATED SUPPLY AND AVERAGE RENTS IN HIGH STREETS 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Vacancy rate Bydgoszcz Częstochowa Radom Kielce Toruń Katowice Conurbation Poznań Agglomeration Krakow Agglomeration Tricity Agglomeration Białystok Wrocław Agglomeration Lublin Łódź Agglomeration Szczecin Agglomeration Warsaw Agglomeration Average rate SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 sq m Warsaw Tricity Krakow Poznań Łódź Szczecin Katowice Wrocław Supply (GLA) in high streets Average rents SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY EUR/sq m/month in the other seven conurbations and EUR 2-3/sq m/month in small and medium-sized cities. The Polish retail market has become a more tenant-led market in 215. It is now common practice for anchor tenants taking up 1,-2, sq m to demand large fit-out contributions and turnover-based rents, but only in secondary retail schemes and markets with high saturation of modern retail space. HIGH STREETS High streets feature firmly on the retail maps of cities and are complementary to shopping centres for customers both to do shopping and to relax. The total floorspace of high street stores frequently equates to that of a medium-sized shopping centre. Demand for high street space comes largely from restaurants, cafés, fashion retailers, services and daily shopping stores. Due to low availability of units in top high street destinations, prime rents have remained at high levels of EUR 75-85/sq m/month for a 1 sq m store. Retail space provision in Polish high streets is expected to rise in the next few years following the ongoing modernization of commercial space on the back of the big potential of top high street destinations, mainly in Warsaw and Krakow, and strong occupier interest in opening stores in such locations. High street development, however, continues to be hindered by fragmented ownership of retail space and lack of an integrated growth strategy for this market segment. HYPERMARKETS AND SUPERMARKETS The Polish food sector is currently developing mainly through the further rapid growth of the convenience stores and through retail space modernization and standardization in existing hypermarkets. The most active players on the convenience market are Żabka, which opened 7 new stores in the past year, and Carrefour, adding around 1 stores to its franchise network. Auchan remained the most active operator in the hypermarket sector in H1 215 by opening eight rebranded Real hypermarkets it had acquired in 214. In the past twelve months it rebranded 2 out of 49 Real hypermarkets. Other hypermarket operators are focused on upgrading and remodelling of existing stores, including development of click & collect services and e-tailing. No new food hypermarket was opened in H1 215, but several were thoroughly modernized, including Carrefour hypermarkets in Gdańsk, Grudziądz, Rybnik and Jastrzębie-Zdrój. Carrefour will remain an active market player, alongside Auchan, by opening new hypermarkets in Fabryka Wołomin and Galeria Posnania, in Warsaw s Galeria Północ and Galeria Wilanów, which remain in the pipeline, and by modernizing other facilities, including the large extension and remarketing of Carrefour Shopping Centre in Białystok. In the supermarket sector Intermarche and Piotr i Paweł have announced rapid expansion plans to open 2-3 new stores in 215. Lidl, a leading discount chain, intends to open around 3 new supermarkets by the end of this year. The expansion rate of Biedronka has slowed down from 19 new stores in 214 to around 15 planned for 215. By the end of June 215 it added 68 stores to its network (83 stores were opened and 15 were closed down). Several new stores were also opened in H1 215 by Intermarche, Kaufland, Piotr i Paweł, Lidl and Alma. 17

17 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication KEY HYPERMARKET OPERATORS IN POLAND (NUMBER OF HYPERMARKETS) SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 DIY STORES AND RETAIL PARKS 78 In H1 215, only one DIY hypermarket was opened: Bricoman in Szczecin. By contrast, the sector of smaller DIY stores is expanding more strongly, mainly in small cities. In H1 215, Bricomarché opened seven new stores, including some of the 14 locations taken over from Nomi, the Polish chain PSB Mrówka added 2 new stores to its network, while a local DIY operator Majster, focused on the markets of southern and south-eastern Poland, opened two more stores. Several DIY stores are currently under construction, mainly in larger retail schemes, including Castorama s store near Warsaw s Wola Park shopping centre (to be opened in late 215), Castorama s relocation to the Cieszyn Retail Park (scheduled to open in Autumn 215), Bricoman s store near the Kraśnicka Retail Park under construction in Lublin (to open in autumn 215), Leroy Merlin s store in Cieszyn (opening in July 215) and in Galeria Posnania (opening in 216), Bricomarché s store in Grójec (opening in July 215) and Majster s three stores in Oława, Radlin and Łańcut. In addition, Leroy Merlin s store is also expected to break ground in the retail park near Galeria Sudecka in Jelenia Góra (scheduled to open in 216). Development activity in the retail park sector has picked up strongly. Due to high saturation of modern retail space in large cities, retail parks are being developed mainly in smaller cities, including towns with a population of 15, to 3,. The largest new retail parks opened in H1 215 were Era Park Wieluń and Galeria Głowno, providing 6, sq m GLA each. Extensions included Graniczna Park in Płock (3,8 sq m added) and Galeria Morena in Gdańsk following the extension of the Morena shopping centre (2,9 sq m). 99 Auchan+Real Carrefour Kaufland E.Leclerc Tesco Zamość. However, the top retail park in terms of space in the pipeline is the Bielany Retail Park in Bielany Wrocławskie with 35, sq m to be added by IKEA Centres Poland, making it Poland s largest shopping destination with more than 14, sq m. The scheme will be renamed Aleja Bielany following completion of the extension. Demand for retail park space is driven mainly by rapidly expanding budget brands such as Biedronka, Pepco, KiK, Takko Fashion, CCC and Deichmann, followed by the expanding health and beauty stores Rossmann, Hebe, Dayli and Drogeria Natura, and sports discount stores such as Decathlon Easy. Retail parks are also anchored by hypermarkets and smaller DIY stores such as Bricomarché, electronics (RTV Euro AGD, Media Expert and Neonet) and furniture and homeware stores, including Abra and Jysk. Retail park rents remain stable. The most expensive rents are in large retail parks in the biggest conurbations at EUR 1-15/sq m/month. In smaller retail parks in small cities that are more common on the market, rents are lower averaging EUR 7-9/sq m/month. OUTLET CENTRES With 198, sq m the existing outlet centres account for 1.9% of Poland s modern retail stock. Following the opening of the first two outlet centres in eastern and north-eastern Poland (in Lublin and Białystok), another retail scheme was added to the Polish market in H1 215: Outlet Center Białystok, becoming the thirteenth outlet centre in Poland. The Polish retail market comprises outlet centres in the largest agglomerations: three in the Warsaw agglomeration, two in Białystok, and one in Wrocław, Poznań, Krakow, Sosnowiec, Gdańsk, Szczecin, Łódź and Lublin. The development pipeline includes the extension of Warsaw s Factory Ursus and Szczecin s Outlet Park to be provided with an additional 6, sq m and 5, sq m, respectively. This also includes the two recently-opened and marketed outlet centres in Lublin and Białystok to provide an additional 4,6 sq m of new retail space when completed. Rents in outlet centres are relatively low. Average rent for a store of 1-15 sq m in Warsaw is EUR 22-24/sq m/month while in other cities it stands at EUR 18-2/sq m/month. At the end of H1 215 Poland had 47 retail parks comprising a total of 917, sq m with another 85,2 sq m to be delivered by the end of December. New retail parks totalling 5,2 sq m are under construction in Lublin, Białystok, Gdańsk, Siedlce and 18

19 AUTUMN 215 MARKETBEAT A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication INDUSTRIAL MARKET MODERN WAREHOUSE STOCK IN POLAND H1 215 MARKET OVERVIEW In H1 215 the industrial and warehouse market in Poland witnessed further strong growth in new supply and also take-up. More than 45, sq m of new industrial space was delivered to the market, representing a 33% increase compared to the supply in H Total take-up amounted to 1,21, sq m, which pushed the vacancy rate down from 6.8% at year-end 214 to the record low of 6.2% at the end of June 215. Given the volume of industrial space under construction, new supply is likely to exceed one million square metres this year as was the case in 214. Vacancy rates are expected to remain low as a result of strong take-up coupled with the fact that many schemes are either BTS projects or pre-let prior to construction. sq m Warsaw - Suburbs Upper Silesia Poznań Wrocław Central Poland Warsaw - Inner City Tricity Krakow Rzeszów Toruń Szczecin SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215. Lublin STOCK At the end of June 215 total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 9,31, sq m, representing an annual rise of 13.5%. With 2,89, sq m and a 31% market share the Warsaw region remains the largest warehouse market in Poland, but 77% of this total is located in Warsaw s suburbs. Improvements in transport infrastructure have spurred further developments in the four largest regional markets (Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Poznań and Wrocław), whose total stock stands at nearly 5,5, sq m, accounting for a 6% market share. Given the locations of warehouse schemes under construction, these regions are expected to strengthen their position on the Polish industrial map. Development activity has also stepped up in the smaller markets of Tricity, Krakow, Rzeszów, Toruń, Szczecin and Lublin, but their share in the country s total stock currently stands at around 1%. With around 2,7, sq m or 24% of Poland s total stock, Prologis leads the ranking of warehouse owners, followed by other developers and their business partners such as Segro (11%), Logicor (9%), Goodman (7%), Panattoni (6%), P3 Logistics (5%) and MLP Group (4%). SUPPLY In H1 215, modern warehouse supply totalled 452, sq m, a rise of more than 33% compared with H The strongest developer activity was recorded in Poznań (165, sq m) and Warsaw s suburbs (83, sq m), accounting for 36% and 2% of the warehouse supply, respectively. Development also picked up in the smaller markets of Szczecin, Lublin, Krakow, Rzeszów and Tricity, where 167, sq m of warehouse space was delivered in H1 215, a rise of 36% on 214 s total supply of 123, sq m. Several new schemes constructed on a built-to-suit basis were also added to the market, including Goodman s development for Intermarche in Poznań (82, sq m), P3 s ID Logistics in Mszczonów (46, sq m) and Goodman s Stock in Lublin (33, sq m). Other major completions in H1 215 included phase one of Panattoni Park Poznań IV (35, sq m), phase one of SEGRO Logistic Park Poznań in Komorniki (32, sq m), another phase of North-West Logistic Park developed by Waimea Holdings in Szczecin (29, sq m) and phase one of SEGRO Logistics Park Gdańsk (27, sq m). 2

20 AUTUMN 215 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication MODERN WAREHOUSE SUPPLY IN H1 215 STOCK UNDER CONSTRUCTION H sq m sq m Poznań Warsaw - Suburbs Lublin Szczecin Upper SIlesia Tricity Krakow Rzeszów Warsaw - Inner City Central Poland Toruń SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215. Wrocław 2 Upper Silesia Wrocław Central Poland Poznań Rzeszów Tricity Lublin Warsaw - Suburbs Szczecin Krakow Warszaw - Inner City Toruń Leased Vacant At the end of June 215 some 735, sq m of modern warehouse space in 34 projects was under construction, nearly 8% more than at year-end 214. Most of the projects are being developed in Upper Silesia, Wrocław, Poznań and Central Poland, each region accounting for around 15% of the volume underway and jointly for around 61% of the country s total stock under construction. Developer activity is also picking up in less developed markets such as Rzeszów (74, sq m under construction), Tricity (61, sq m), Lublin (49, sq m) and Szczecin (32, sq m). The largest developments underway include: Panattoni Park Stryków II (6, sq m), the extension of Panattoni Park Wrocław III (51, sq m), a BTS project developed by Goodman in Pomorskie Centrum Logistyczne in Gdańsk (39, sq m) and the extension of Centrum Logistyczno-Inwestycyjne CLIP Poznań (36, sq m). Given the healthy occupier demand and positive economic outlook, investors have started speculative developments. Around 2% of warehouse space under construction has not been secured under pre-lets and the share of speculative development in the Polish warehouse market is likely to rise gradually. BTS schemes constructed to meet specific client requirements continue to be popular, but in some locations with exceptionally low vacancy rates developers are beginning to construct mixed schemes comprising a speculative component on the back of a pre-let agreement being signed. SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD VALUATION & ADVISORY, JULY 215 VACANCY RATES Despite large supply, the vacancy rate fell from 6.8% to 6.2% in H1 215, which compared with year-end 214 equates to a decline in vacant warehouse space by 25, sq m to 578, sq m. Of the core markets, the highest vacancies are Warsaw s inner city (1.9%), Upper Silesia (6.8%) and Central Poland (5.5%). The gap between the vacancy rates in Warsaw s inner city (1.9%) and the Greater Warsaw area (9.7%) has narrowed. The lowest vacancy rates were again noted in Poznań (1.7%) and Wrocław (3.4%). Occupier demand and supply balance has helped to keep vacancies on the largest warehouse markets at stable levels. This being said, the vacancy rates edged up in Wrocław (up by 1.5%) and in Poznań (up by 1.2%). Among smaller markets where a single lease can easily impact vacancy levels, there are regions reporting both considerable declines in vacant space (Toruń, Tricity and Lublin), however at the same time some regions are noticing rising vacancies (Szczecin). 21

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