HSBC Warns about Oil at $100

While we aren't explicitly forecasting Brent to rise to $100/b we see real risks of this happening," said the bank in a research note published on Tuesday. "The fact that much higher supply is already needed from the likes of Saudi Arabia - and the low levels of spare capacity remaining - leave the global system highly vulnerable to any further significant outage."

Quite elegantly put, I thought. I'm tempted to see what they had to say about spare capacity three months ago but I won't waste my time.