Republican Voters Are More ‘Reliable’

The general trend for voters nationally is that they’re simply fed up with Washington, D.C. According to Gallup’s most recent survey of voter sentiments last week, only 32% indicated an extreme motivation to vote on November 4th.

But that dismal number turns out to be another advantage for Republicans given that command over marginal voter enthusiasm is all the more critical for turnout models.

This news is exceedingly troubling for Democrats who are already on the ropes in a cycle characterized by the president’s dismal approval rating and issues that refuse to break in their favor.

Overall, voter engagement is also lower than in 2006 or 2010. Those years saw 45% and 50% of voters “extremely motivated” to vote, respectively, while average voter motivation in 2014 is near 32%.

However, the primary difference is on the Democrat side: Those voters identifying as “Democrat / Democratic Leaner” polled at 49% and 42% in 2006 and 2010, respectively, a full 24 and 17 point difference.