Your Right to Know

Gov. Ted Strickland’s landslide win in 2006 helped Ohio House Democrats pick up seven seats. In
2008, with Barack Obama leading the ticket, Democrats picked up seven more seats and took the
majority.

In 2010, a recession-fueled swing helped Republicans sweep up 13 seats and take back the House
majority.

Experts do not see a fourth-straight significant swing forming in 2012 for legislative races,
though Democrats could get help if Obama’s recent poll numbers hold. What that leaves is a major
Republican fundraising advantage for candidates running in Republican-gerrymandered districts — and
a lot less drama about who will be in control when the dust settles.

House Republicans currently hold a 59-40 majority. Democrats think they can hold steady, but
Republicans appear confident they will pick up seats, and with reason: Legislative Democrats got
hammered by the new GOP-drawn maps.

“The new map is a challenge. I don’t think anybody could deny that,” said Rep. Debbie Phillips,
D-Athens, co-chair of the House Democratic Campaign Committee. “But the previous map was
challenging as well.”

House Democrats start off in a hole. Democratic incumbents Ted Celeste and Michael Stinziano
were drawn together, and they lost a district in Cuyahoga County. Two other Democratic incumbents,
including Rep. Nancy Garland of New Albany, chose not to run when they were drawn into new
GOP-friendly districts. Rep. Connie Pillich, D-Cincinnati, saw her new district drawn considerably
more to favor Republicans.

Democrats also lost two top candidates in tough seats in Richland and Lake counties, putting
both in jeopardy.

House Republicans have a major fundraising advantage, but Democrats and unions have put major
financial backing behind Issue 2, the plan to change the redistricting process.

Rep. Matt Huffman, R-Lima, chairman of the House GOP’s campaign committee, said he expects
Republicans will have 55 to 66 seats after Election Day, based on worst- and best-case scenarios.
Since the modern 99-member House was created in 1967, the largest majority for either party was 64
for the GOP in 1969.

Of the 59 GOP incumbents, four or five are in tough races, Huffman said. “Those are races where
we’re concentrating a lot of resources and our candidates are working hard.” He also sees at least
four Democratic-held seats that are ripe for the taking.

Republican candidates are focusing on job-creation efforts, ways to fill a big budget hole
without raising taxes, and a new Common Sense Initiative, designed to tackle excessive business
regulations. “The key message is about jobs and how do we make Ohio competitive and economically
friendly,” Huffman said.

House Democrats also have some opportunities to play offense. They see a few GOP incumbents who
won by small margins in the 2010 election who should be vulnerable, such as Rep. Casey Kozlowski in
Ashtabula County, who won by just 42 votes, or Rep. Tony DeVitis in Summit County, an appointed
member whose new district became more Democratic.

“We are going to be outspent, but I don’t think we are going to be outworked,” Phillips
said.

Democrats are painting a very different picture of the state budget, which cut $1.4 billion in
basic operating funds from schools and local governments. They say that GOP plan pushed the pain
down from the state level to local taxpayers.

“The impact on local governments and public services are certainly messages a lot of our folks
are talking about,” Phillips said. “We need to look at more comprehensive solutions and not just
move money from one pocket to the other.”

Democrats also are talking about worries over government privatization efforts, and they hope
voters still have vivid memories of the Republican-crafted Senate Bill 5, the anti-collective
bargaining law that sparked huge Statehouse protests and a crushing repeal last November.

If Obama’s numbers remain strong in Ohio, Phillips said, it could give Democrats a push.

“In a year when there’s a larger-than-usual win, that provides some momentum for folks who are
further down the ticket,” she said. “That is difficult to quantify until we get much closer to
Election Day. Right now, I feel good about the trends we’re seeing.”

Speaker William G. Batchelder, R-Medina, does not see many coattails to ride at the top of the
ticket. “Consequently, a lot of our people have a job to talk about what they did here and what
they’re going to do, and not get so mixed up at that level,” he said, adding that Republican
presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s performance could impact races by 2 or 3 percentage
points.

In the Ohio Senate, where Republicans hold a 23-10 majority, it’s likely the biggest fight will
be in eastern Ohio over the seat held by Sen. Lou Gentile, D-Steubenville.