List of 82 House Dems most likely to lose

Here is a list of 82 Democrat-held House seats that you should be watching on election night, based largely on independent polling but also my sense of where things stand.

For what it’s worth, I’ve italicized the 44 seats that I think are most likely to fall to the GOP. With Republicans likely to lose about five seats of their own (two incumbents and two or three open seats), this happily coincides with the minimum number they must take over in order to gain a House majority.

If you see a good number italicized seats going to Democrats, they I think they still have a chance of keeping the House. If you see a lot of bold ones going to Republicans – particularly in the category of incumbents who lead – then you’re probably seeing a wave.

I’ve broken it down this way in part so that you can watch the fate of the the much debated “incumbent rule” by keeping an eye on how many poorly-polling House incumbents manage to pull it out.