With U.S. President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announcing that major cuts are coming to the Defense Department, hawks seeking to stop nuclear weapons development by Iran by any means necessary will soon have less “means” to call upon. With the Army set to shrink by approximately 80,000 soldiers, and a broad swath of cuts set to affect every service, “Operation Iranian Freedom” may be far less likely than many hawks had previously hoped.

The diminished prospect for a military confrontation with Iran is particularly bad news for some considering that Secretary Panetta just last month suggested that Iran could – although it was unlikely – have a nuclear weapon before 2012 is over.

Yet while few outside the Iranian regime see a nuclear Iran as desirable, any decision that could lead to war between the United States and the Islamic Republic deserves considerable discussion before the American people. Simply beating the war drums so loudly as to drown out the voices of any opposition is a poor substitute for real debate.

Five points deserve particular consideration as decision makers consider the United States’ option. They are particularly important as the 2012 election gets closer and calls for a military solution increase.

First, Iran possesses what is likely the most capable military the United States has faced in decades. Iran is no Grenada, Panama, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia, Afghanistan or Iraq. In all of these examples, the U.S. military defeated an adversary incapable of competing with superior American land, naval, and air forces. The Iranian military is far more competent and capable, and after watching the war in Iraq for a decade has a good understanding of U.S. tactics and strategy.

For example, Iran's regular navy is adept at littoral combat and may be capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz for sufficient duration to wreak economic havoc. The recent naval exercises by the Iranian navy illustrate a clear strategy that would seek to close the strait while attempting to sink American combat vessels that enter the area. This would result in a significant loss of commercial shipping and cause the price of oil to skyrocket.

If it comes to war, the proliferation of advanced air defense systems to countries like Iran may give it one of the best integrated anti-aircraft defense systems the United States faces in combat. They may be capable of inflicting casualties on American airpower not seen since Vietnam. And with a declining bomber force, losses could be unacceptable.

Unlike Iraq, Iran’s regular Army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps won’t lay down their arms at the first sight of U.S. ground troops. They, more than any other element of the regime, watched Afghanistan and Iraq for lessons on how to defeat the Americans.

Second, the Ministry of Intelligence and National Security (MOIS), Iran’s espionage service, is among the most competent in the world. Over the past thirty years, MOIS agents have successfully hunted down and assassinated dissidents, former officials of the Shah's government, and real or perceived threats to the regime. MOIS is still capable of carrying out assassinations, espionage, and other kinetic attacks against government and civilian targets. The spy service is also likely to have covert agents in the United States.

While information is incomplete, there’s reason to believe that Manssor Arbabsiar, the Iranian who allegedly attempted to hire the Zeta drug cartel to assassinate a Saudi ambassador on American soil, was tied to MOIS. While the effort failed, it demonstrates the lengths to which MOIS will likely go.

MOIS has also been known to target Iranian expatriates, imprisoning their family members and causing bodily harm. A small number of the 1-1.5 million Iranian-Americans may very well become targets of such tactics.

Third, Iranian-backed Hezbollah is more capable of conducting terrorist attacks than al Qaeda ever was. With three decades of experience fighting the Israelis in Lebanon and northern Israel, suspected ties to Latin American drug cartels, and a global network, Hezbollah is an international network that is able to conduct large-scale attacks against the United States and its interests abroad.

In fact, Hezbollah cells are believed to be active in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and elsewhere, making the organization more than a hypothetical threat. With the U.S. Marine Barracks bombing (Beirut,1983), Argentine Israelite Mutual Association bombing (Buenos Aires,1994), Khobar Towers bombing (Saudi Arabia,1996), and many other attacks under their belts, Hezbollah has a history of global terrorism. Should the U.S. military attack Iran, Hezbollah is likely to launch a series of terrorist counter-attacks that will not be as readily thwarted as those of al-Qaeda.

Fourth, Iran’s cyber capabilities are impressive and growing. An attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is likely to prompt a sustained cyber-attack unlike any we have seen. It will likely target critical data in the public and private sector and seek to wreak havoc, shut down systems, and destroy data.

Fifth, after a decade of intense combat operations, the United States military deserves a rest from war. Afghanistan and Iraq have taken their toll on America's fighting men and women, their families, and the equipment they rely on. A “limited attack” on Iran will likely escalate into a wider war, making it difficult for the military to rest and refit.

When considering whether to use military force against Iran it’s important to understand that there is an asymmetry of interests at stake. The Iranian regime sees itself as fighting for its very survival. The stakes are considerably lower for the United States.

Even a focused strike against Iran's nuclear facilities will elicit a response well in excess of the United States' “limited” objectives. While a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and troop reductions in Afghanistan – Iran’s western and northern neighbors – may cause the Iranian leadership to slow the development of a “Shi’a bomb,” a strategic attack by the United States will only strengthen their resolve and solidify the regime’s worst fears.

While Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s bellicose statements make good political theatre, there is rarely much behind them. To suggest that Ahmadinejad is all bark and no bite is not far from the truth. The fact is that the Iranian regime is more risk averse than many give it credit for. Regime survival is of paramount concern and greatly explains why the regime acts as it does. Pushing the regime to the edge may turn empty threats into reality and will certainly undermine any effort by President Barack Obama to save defense dollars.

In the end, Iran may prove less capable than I’ve described, and a military conflict with Iran may be less costly in blood and treasure than suspected. However, weighing all options before resorting to military conflict is critical to reaching the best solution.

For the United States, determining what a nuclear weapons-free Iran is worth is critical. Had the American people understood the costs of Iraq before the war began, it’s unlikely they would have given their consent. Given the current economic woes of the country, that cannot happen again.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Adam B. Lowther.

soundoff(141 Responses)

alexander wilson (my real name!)

1776, 1865, 1941...i am pretty sure this country does not look at a strong military force as a deterrent to execute a just war! this author is actually teaches at the air force university. maybe we should refer to second point in this article, maybe he is the plant

It is only a coward who will in fear of loosing 1000 of its population will wait to eventually loose 1 billion of its population to a goal less regime. A regime whose entire dream is built on developing weapons that will be used to inflict pains on innocent world. If iran is not stopped now, they might eventually be more difficult to do.

You say "Iran is a regime whose entire dream is built on developing weapons that will be used to inflict pains on innocent world." Swap 'Iran' for 'USA' and you'd be correct. The US and their massive arms industry has led to the deaths of millions of innocents over the past 50 years. All in the name of money. Well done.

Iran are seeking weapons because they're surrounded by US bases and Israel (with nukes pointed at them) and therefore want to obtain and develop weapons for self-defence. Try to put yourself in their shoes, and while you're at it try reading some alternative viewpoints on the internet. Iranians are people with families just like you and me. Many thousands will die if the US/Israel bomb them. Just like Iraq – More than 100,000 innocent dead, plus thousands of Americans. All for what?

I do believe that the author of this article is born a coward, who is used by the Iranians to manipulate the Americans believe. But he failed absolutely as his base less comparison of military mights has shown the intention of such offender.

The article writer is overstating Iran's military capability by a huge degree.

Iran has a 4th world military which will not be able to keep U.S battleship and planes away from Iran's territorial water and airspace.

Iran's small airforce and warships will quickly be erased within a few days of any war and there's really nothing they'd be able to do to fend off guided missiles.

Also, i suspect in case of any war, the U.S will use Kurds and Sunni soldiers to attack the regime internally and there are plenty of anti-regime militants who are dying to rage warfare against the regime.

It is also important to point out the regime hasnt been as unpopular today then at any time during the regime existence..It's very naive to think all iranians will rally around the regime.

The article writer is overstating Iran's military capability by a huge degree.

Iran has a 4th world military which will not be able to keep U.S battleship and planes away from Iran's territorial water and airspace.

Iran's small airforce and warships will quickly be erased within a few days of any war and there's really nothing they'd be able to do to fend off guided missiles.

Also, i suspect in case of any war, the U.S will use Kurds and Sunni soldiers to attack the regime internally and there are plenty of anti-regime militants who are dying to rage warfare against the regime.

It is also important to point out the regime hasnt been as unpopular today then at any time during the regime existence..It's very naive to think all iranians will rally around the regime.

some think that Iran is a poor country without any technology
in Iran every child can produce a speed boat

Iranian people are very intelligent !
they can do a lot of surprising actions
and they think in this way that i want to explain:
Iranians say
"we fight without caring about result of war . we do our duty so we have two possibilty
1- we will be victor of war
2- we will be killed: if they kill us we are the winner too because we will go to heaven "
so i have a question can you imagine how this people will fight?
imagine 10000 little speed boat are attacking a USS George H.W. Bush or ever toy like this how it will defent itself
"while all this crews of 10000 are ready to be killed"
the myrtirdom is a powerful weapon that america afraid of not the nuclear bomb
and i have solution for usa to defeat iran
you can attack suddenly all over the iran with nuclear bombs and kill all 75 million people then everyone is satisfied
Iranian go to heaven
and america wont afraid of power real Islam

You want war you crazy sadistic American war addicts? so come on and we will teach you what war is.
Iran doesn't want to nuke any country, in iran no one, AND I MEAN ABSOLUTELY NO ONE, government or not, even thinks about creating or using a nuclear weapon, so get your head out of fox news and hollywood's ass and see the reality.

I do not understand why we can not all live in peace–we are all humans-we love our mothers, and fathers-we need to find a way to live in peace. Why cant we?? We all need to break from the past.
lets all live in peace, lets look towards the future in peace!!

THE AUTHOR HAS MADE SOME GOOD ANALYSIS BUT HAS MISSED THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR BY FAR.
WE IRANIANS HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES AMONGST OURSELVES BUT WHEN IT COMES TO WAR, WE STAND ABSOLUTELY RESOLUTE AND UNITED. IN ADDITION TO THAT, ALL OF 75 MILLION OF US STAND EVEN MORE UNITED ON OUR RIGHT NOT ONLY ON NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY BUT THE BOMB INSELF. IF US, RUSSIA,CHINA,FRANCE,BRITAIN AND OTHERS CAN HAVE, THEN SO CAN WE, NO IFS AND BUTS ABOUT IT. HENCE WE STRONGLY ADVICE USA TO SAVE HER SKIN BEFORE WE TEACH THEM HOW TO FIGHT! BY THE WAY, I AM NOT A SUPPORTER OF CURRENT IRANIAN GOVERNMENT BUT I IRANIAN!

How about this for a reason not to go to war against Iran: Iran is NOT trying to build a nuclear weapon!

Defense Secretary Panetta on Face the Nation on Jan 6:

“Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon?” Panetta asked rhetorically on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program. “No. But we know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability, and that’s what concerns us."

5 REASONS WHY WE SHOULD ATTACK IRAN
IRAN IS WEAK ,PAPER TIGER SO DONT BEBRAIN WASH BU MUSLIM MEDIA, IRAN HAVE MORE THAN 45 RESISTANT GROUP AND READY FOR USA ATTACK TO CHANGE THOSE EVIL DARK EMPIRE OF IRAN, NOT EVERY BODY IN IRAN LIKE IRAN GOVERNMENT, ALL ARABS WILL HELP USA ALL SUNNI DO THE SAME, ALL KURDS, BELOOSH, PERSIANS AND CHRISTEANS IN MIDDLEAST WILL HELP,WHY USA NOT ATTCK NOW? IS IT CAUSE THEY ARE BUSSY URINATING ON AFGANI MUSLIMS!!/
SEE THE ALJAZEERA.NET REGARDING usa army urinating on a dead muslim people , and then usa say they are respecting human right!!!!1 and if others urinate on usa army usa call them barberians!??? why this hipocricy?
فضيحة أخلاقية جديدة للجنود الأميركيين
مارينز يتبولون على جثث أفغان

in libya they killed the leader a muslim after torturing him and urinate on him then they put his body on the floor and ask other stupid muslims to take pictures of the dead body!? is this ISLAM!? THIS EVIL BEHAVIOUR ROOTED IN them and then when USA marines urinate on the muslims bodies they say oohhhhh NO you cant do that!? what a hipocrits.

i...........in libya they killed the leader a muslim after torturing him and urinate on him then they put his body on the floor and ask other stupid muslims to take pictures of the dead body!? is this ISLAM!? THIS EVIL BEHAVIOUR ROOTED IN them and then when USA marines urinate on the muslims bodies they say oohhhhh NO you cant do that!? what a hipocrits.

when i see the coments i think most of the people not aware of what is going on.that is because of media have brain washed all these people.most people have misunderstood iran and its people.remember iran is very different from other arab countries.they have a culture and true form of islam

Where do you get your information? Iran isn't any better than Iraq was. They fought for 10 years and couldn't accoumplish anything what so ever against Iraq. The U.S. turned Iraq into a landfield in less than a week and we would have no trouble doing the exact same thing to Iran! And have no doubt, as soon as the A 1's started rolling across the border and the A 10 warthogs turned the Iranian tanks into scrap heaps, the Iraininan army would most definately lay down and cry just as the Iraq army did. :You obviously want tthe Irainians to get the bomb – why I don't know, and hurrah for you. But don't try to brainwash the American people into thinking that we should be afraid of standing up for ourselfs. Eliminate the treat once for all and be done with it. Or else, sooner or later one of them will sneak across the border and eliminate one of our cities. What will you say then, I wonder?

dont take muslims lightly they train there babies to commit jihad ie to be suicide bombers have no sympathy on them hit them hard like you did to hiroshima and nagasaki god bless america and israel when some of you fall into the hands of these cold blooded killers then you will learn

It's likely that Adam doesn't exist at all and has been fabricated by Iran's media in an attempt to have us all believe the US military has divided opinion, when in reality the vast majority of the world including Europe, Canada and Asia stand side by side on this issue. Military Personnel 101, don't broadcast anything that could compromise national security.

Within hours, this surfaced referring to this very article. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/220140.html. The same people who wrote that, posted this blog.

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