Recent polls have suggested that Walker has a small, 50-45%, lead over Barrett. But there are two important points that show that such small leads can be overcome by Barrett. First, the polls have barely budged since March, despite Walker having a 25 to 1 funding advantage. This suggests that the flood of mainly out-of-state money trying to prop up Walker can be defeated. Second is that Walker’s narrow lead results from not from higher overall support, but from a higher level of enthusiasm among Republicans than Democrats. As explained recently in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

There are signs Walker is benefiting from an enthusiasm gap. In a new Marquette poll, 91% of Republicans said they were absolutely certain to vote in the June recall election, compared to 83% of Democrats. In Marquette’s last three polls, Republicans have expressed more certainty about voting in June than Democrats

Another clue about intensity can be found in the partisan makeup of voters in recent surveys. In a typical Wisconsin poll, Democrats slightly outnumber Republicans. But in a poll released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic survey firm, Republicans out-numbered Democrats 35% to 28% (with independents at 37%).

This helps explain Walker’s 50% to 45% lead over Barrett in the PPP poll taken May 11-13. Walker actually trailed Barrett slightly among independents in the poll (42% to 49%), but with Republicans outnumbering Democrats – and 90% of voters in both parties voting along party lines – Walker led overall.

What these numbers suggests is that the Barrett can win the recall election so long as our voters get as enthusiastic as the Republicans are. In other words, now is the time to get fired up about sending a message that Walker’s divisive, Koch Brothers’ agenda is not going to prevail in Wisconsin. Here are three reasons to get enthusiastic about voting for Tom Barrett to recall Scott Walker on June 5:

Barrett’s congressional record was that of a progressive who voted against George Bush’s war with Iraq; who broke with his party leadership to oppose the Patriot Act; and who was a champion of public education and a defender of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. His record closely paralleled that of former Sen. Russ Feingold on those issues and on economic matters – especially free-trade votes, where he joined the Wisconsin Democrat in opposing wrongheaded agreements that were proposed by both Republican and Democratic presidents.

As the mayor of Milwaukee since 2004, he has built a record as a pragmatic urban leader. Some of his particular positions – with regard to control of the Milwaukee schools and union contract negotiations – have disappointed progressives. But his record is generally that of a humane and effective big-city executive. His recent battles with the Walker administration over the governor’s diversion of federal mortgage relief money away from hard-pressed neighborhoods showed Barrett at his best. In fact, it reminded a lot of Wisconsinites of why they wanted this guy to be their governor.

It has recently been revealed that Walker’s initial attacks on public employee unions are just the first stage in his effort to turn Wisconsin into a right-to-work for less state through a “divide and conquer” strategy. In a video of Walker speaking with billionaire Diana Hendricks (who later donated more than $500,000 to Walker), Walker made clear that this strategy was designed to both undermine unions and to turn Wisconsin into a red state. It is also clear that Republicans in the state legislature want to go further and pass a right-to-work for less law. If you think Walker has been bad his first two years in office, he would almost certainly be worse were he to win the recall election.

3. Scott Walker is Doing the Bidding of Out-of-State Billionaires and Millionaires – the agenda being pursued by Walker is similar to the reactionary agenda being pursued by GOP Governors in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and other states. And the reason for that is that these Governors are all being funded by folks like the Koch Brothers, and assisted by corporate right-wing groups such as the American Legislative Exchange Council (“ALEC”). With regards to Walker, he has received 74% of his funding from out-of-state, including $1.3 million from attendees of a Koch Brother-organized summit of right-wing fundraisers, $250,000 from Sheldon Adelson, who was previously the primary financier of Newt Gingrich’s Presidential run, and $104,600 from Foster Friess, who became infamous when he explained that birth control should involved women holding aspirin between their knees. In addition, the Koch-brother funded Americans for Prosperity has already spent $1.5 million on behalf of Walker, while the Republican Governor’s Association has spent $3 million trying to support Walker after receiving a $1 million check form David Koch. It is clear that Walker has and would continue to answer to out-of-state billionaires and millionaires, not Wisconsinites, if he were to win the recall.

The good news is that despite the meddling of out-of-state billionaires and millionaires, this election is winnable for Barrett. It is up to us progressives to put him over the top by getting involved. If you live in Wisconsin, you can help out by signing up to volunteer, sending in a contribution, and writing a letter to your local newspaper editor. And even if you don’t live in Wisconsin, you can help out by contributing to Barrett’s campaign, making sure that any friends or family you have in Wisconsin vote for Barrett on June 5, and by sharing this post with your social networks.

4 Comments

I have already volunteered to make GOTV calls for the Wisconsin dems. I have a “I recalled Scott Walker” bumper sticker. I view Wisconsin as my next door neighbor and right now, they need our help.

Thanks for the reminder WP.

winterbanyan
on May 23, 2012 at 7:48 am

Thanks for the reminder, WP. I’ve donated to the recall effort, and I sincerely hope the enthusiasm gap can be bridged. Among other things, the closer the date comes, the more likely people are to be paying attention. I hope.

This is definitely all about GOTV.

NCrissieB
on May 23, 2012 at 8:04 am

Thank you for this, Winning Progressive. This election will turn on GOTV. If Democrats want to win, they have to vote … and work to get other Democrats to vote. It really is that simple.

sjterrid
on May 23, 2012 at 5:52 pm

Thank you Winning Progressive. I donated to the recall effort, and I recently gave a donation to Tom Barrett’s campaign. I hope the Democrats come out to vote. After what happened in the mid-term election and all the stuff that Walker has done to
disenfranchise the people in his state, I don’t understand why any democrat wouldn’t come out to vote.