Northern Ireland power-sharing talks close to collapse (again)

At noon on Thursday, the Northern Irish Assembly was due to meet to nominate ministers for a coalition government.

But instead of sitting inside the chamber at Stormont in Belfast, rival republican and unionist politicians stood outside, briefing journalists about the latest failure to reach a deal to restore Northern Ireland’s power-sharing administration. The U.K. government had set June 29 as a deadline for protracted talks between Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party to be wrapped up. The deadline for reaching a deal was later extended until Monday, Downing Street said.

The latest missed deadline has fueled questions about the future of Northern Ireland’s devolved government just days after the DUP signed a £1 billion deal to provide “confidence and supply” to Theresa May’s Tory government in Westminster.

There had been speculation that the agreement between the Conservatives and the DUP — and the promise of extra cash for Stormont — would improve the prospect of compromise between Northern Ireland’s largest parties. But Sinn Féin’s Conor Murphy suggested the opposite was true.

“The (Conservative) alliance with the DUP has emboldened their anti-rights and anti-equality agenda, has increased their intransigence and that isn’t acceptable or sustainable,” said Murphy, a former minister in the Stormont executive.

There is no agreed budget for Stormont this year, and few believe the civil service can run the region indefinitely.

DUP negotiator Edwin Poots said his party was “happy” to nominate ministers and blamed Sinn Féin for the failure of talks to reinstate the power-sharing arrangement that collapsed in January.

In January, the devolved government collapsed, with then deputy first minister Martin McGuinness calling for DUP leader Arlene Foster to step aside to allow an investigation into a botched renewable scheme predicted to cost the Northern Irish exchequer as much as £490 million (its total annual budget is around £10 billion). In subsequent elections, Sinn Féin finished one seat behind the DUP.

Foster’s future is not thought to have been the main stumbling block in the current talks. The focus instead has been on Sinn Féin’s demands for legislation to give equal status to the Irish language. The DUP has said it would only support the measure if Ulster Scots speakers were included in any legislation.

Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire held out the possibility of a deal later in the summer, if no deal is reached by Monday.

"Much progress has been made but a number of issues remain outstanding,” Brokenshire said Thursday. "I believe that a resolution can be found and I'm urging the parties to continue focusing all of their efforts on achieving this.”

The Northern Ireland secretary is due to make a statement to the House of Commons later Monday. A return to formal "direct rule" by London is, however, unlikely, at least in the short-term. Instead, Brokenshire is expected to propose new legislation to allow civil servants to continue running the devolved government while talks reconvene later in the summer. If those fail, a second Northern Irish election of the year, or direct rule, could follow.

But the absence of a government in Northern Ireland could cause administrative as well as political difficulties. There is no agreed budget for Stormont this year, and few believe the civil service can run the region indefinitely. In March, the head of the Northern Irish civil service, Malcolm McKibben, warned that ministers — in Belfast or London — would need to take responsibility for “the prioritization and allocation of financial resources.”

An estimated 88 percent of Irish nationalists voted to remain in the European Union and Sinn Féin has called for "special status."

The latest missed deadline does not directly affect the £1 billion in extra funding. The Conservative Party released a statement Thursday saying that their agreement with the DUP allows for the creation of a "consultative committee" that will allow republicans and unionists to agree on spending plans.

Jonny Byrne, lecturer in politics at the University of Ulster, said the current impasse is a reflection of much deeper divisions almost two decades after the end of the Troubles.

“The question is do you want to share power and do we have a common vision for Northern Ireland? We have never articulated a common vision for this place. We have agreed the absence of violence and shared power. But that only takes you so far. What is our common vision? I don’t think the parties have a common vision,” Byrne said.

Brexit has further complicated the Northern Irish picture. The DUP backed Brexit and has committed to supporting the government’s Brexit legislation in Westminster. An estimated 88 percent of Irish nationalists voted to remain in the European Union and Sinn Féin has called for "special status" for Northern Ireland in the negotiations.

“Brexit has polarized things even further," said Byrne. "It makes a deal in Stormont even harder to reach."