Less than a year and a half ago, Sri Lanka's government led by President Mahinda Rajapaksa won a ruthless victory in that country's three-decade-long civil war against a bloody insurgency by the rebel Tamil Tigers. The stage was set for the wartime president to assume a new persona: that of the father of the peacetime nation. Yet now he risks upsetting the country's democratic balance following passage of a constitutional amendment clearing the way for him to stay in power "as long as the people desire it." As with the hobbit in Tolkien's novel, there is nothing left now between President Rajapaksa and the ring of power.

For a country proud to have maintained civilian democratic rule through the depths of the war, Mr. Rajapaksa's moves are disheartening to say the least. In passing the 18th amendment to the constitution earlier this month, the parliament dominated by his Sri Lanka Freedom Party removed the constitutional two-term limit that had capped presidents at a maximum of 12 years in office. They also abolished the 17th amendment enacted in 2001, which had created a Constitutional Council and independent commissions that the president had to consult when appointing people to high-level government posts. That amendment had been a key check on Sri Lanka's otherwise very powerful executive.

Mr. Rajapaksa did not singlehandedly create Sri Lanka's overly strong executive presidency. The constitution introduced in 1978 by President J.R. Jayawardene concentrated significant power in the hands of a single individual. Mr. Rajapaksa's SLFP has claimed at least since it took power in 1994 that it wanted to abolish the executive presidency and replace it with a form of government where power was less centralized. But now Mr. Rajapaksa is embracing a much stronger executive.

With the constitutional term limit abolished, Mr. Rajapaksa has a fair chance of staying in power. Just as in other presidential regimes such as France or the United States, incumbent presidents in Sri Lanka are very likely to win second-term elections. Limits on terms of office are set precisely for this reason.

Many Sri Lankans seem to think, for now anyway, that would not be such a terrible thing. Having ended a debilitating decades-long civil war, President Rajapaksa was re-elected earlier this year with a convincing majority of 58% over his main opponent Sarath Fonseka, a former army commander and erstwhile close ally. If given sufficient time and sufficient powers he promised to rebuild the country, supported by a depoliticized business community.

Meanwhile, the opposition has fallen into disarray. Since 2007 Mr. Rajapaksa has deftly maneuvered to weaken his two legitimate political challengers. The right-wing United National Party led by Ranil Wickremasinghe is in tatters, having lost many of its parliamentarians to the government, and was pushed by popular political pressures to support the ruling party in the "war to eliminate terrorism." The left-wing People's Liberation Front party has split into two factions, one supporting the government and the other in opposition. Its last electoral performance was dismal. Mr. Rajapaksa has hastened this collapse of the opposition with interventions of his own—most notably, the court-martial of Mr. Fonseka for "involvement in politics" while still an officer and dabbling in weapons contracts, charges that conveniently surfaced around the time of the election.

Over the years Mr. Rajapaksa has been busy weakening the institutions that would allow a better-organized opposition to one day become a political force. While the mainstream media are supportive of state policies, dissenting opinions are few and confined to the English-speaking or radical press. The media are on the whole practicing self-censorship.

The fact that academics, lawyers, students and pressure groups took to the streets to protest against the 18th amendment indicates that there is still room for the opposition to maneuver in the interstices of power. The question remains whether, as defenders of the 18th amendment argue, voters will be given a true choice in 2016. This ultimately depends less on Mr. Rajapaksa than on the will of opposition political parties to forge an alternative democratic vision and give leadership to those who believe in it.

It is revealing in this regard that passage of the amendment was achieved with hardly any public debate or scrutiny of such a significant change. It was pushed through parliament as an "urgent parliamentary bill" and it was discussed for only one day. Unsurprisingly, the Supreme Court had earlier ruled that a referendum would not be required. In the end Mr. Rajapaksa secured the requisite two-thirds majority thanks to support from his own party and a smattering of parliamentary votes from some defecting members of the UNP and other, much smaller groups including the main party representing the Muslims.

It is doubtful that this episode will awaken Sri Lankans who were inclined to view Mr. Rajapaksa as the savior of the nation to a more worrying side of his regime. For now there seems to be a wide popular consensus around the shape of the new Sri Lanka: patrimonial, nepotistic, nationalistic and militarized. With a strong electoral mandate and a large parliamentary majority supporting him, Mr. Rajapaksa had a free hand to reform a country bruised by 30 years of violence into a social democratic state. As he instead focuses on consolidating his power, this hope fades away, leaving people in the years to come with a difficult choice: total compliance or desperate revolt.

Ms. Wickramasinghe is professor of modern South Asian studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

By Amal Jayasinghe | Agence France-Presse.............................................................................................................................................................................................Acourt martial in Sri Lanka convicted former army chief Sarath Fonseka on Friday of corruption and sentenced him to three years, a top military official told AFP.

The military court, whose decision must now be ratified by President Mahinda Rajapakse, found that Fonseka favoured an arms company run by his son-in-law, said the official, who asked not to be named.

He was charged on four counts of corrupt purchases for the military.

The conviction came after Fonseka last month was stripped of his rank and pension after another court found him guilty of dabbling in politics while in uniform.

There was no immediate comment from Fonseka's Democratic National Alliance (DNA) party which has maintained that the prosecution of the former four-star general is part of a political vendetta.

State radio said Fonseka could appeal to a civilian court against his three-year jail term.

Fonseka, 59, who led the military to victory over Tamil Tiger rebels in May last year, fell out with the government and unsuccessfully tried to unseat Rajapakse in January polls.

"The chairman of the court read out its decision and it must now be ratified by the president," the official said, adding that the closed-door court would make no formal announcement.

Rajapakse is expected to ratify the decision - seen as a formality - when he returns from the UN General Assembly session this month.

Fonseka's lawyers had refused to make final submissions in the former army chief's defence after accusing the court of serious irregularities.

Fonseka was arrested two weeks after his defeat in the presidential elections and has remained in military custody since. He won a seat in parliamentary elections in April, however, allowing him to attend parliament.

He has said the government is seeking revenge for his decision to stand against the president and to keep him from speaking in parliament.

"They are going to put me in jail and I am prepared for that," Fonseka told reporters in parliament after being escorted by the military from his room in Colombo's naval headquarters to parliament in August.

The first court martial also ordered the withdrawal of the medals he had earned during his 40-year military career and stripped him of his rank and pension.

The general quit the military in November to become an opposition politician, but has since been embroiled in numerous court cases, which he says are being orchestrated by the government.

He faces civilian charges of employing army deserters, as well as revealing state secrets - offences that carry a 20-year jail term.

The 37-year ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka ended in May last year when government forces wiped out the Tamil Tiger separatist group which had fought since 1972 for a Tamil homeland.

The victory boosted the popularity of Rajapakse among the ethnic Sinhalese majority, but the military campaign has since been dogged by war crime allegations which have strained Colombo's relations with former Western allies.

Fonseka angered the government by saying he would willingly testify before any international war crimes tribunal. Rajapakse has vowed to prevent any such probe.

The United Nations estimates that at least 7000 ethnic Tamil civilians were killed in the final months of fighting between government troops and the Tamil Tigers.

The authorities lowered the death toll to 25 in an explosion Friday at a police station in eastern Sri Lanka where stocks of dynamite ignited accidentally, after initially saying more than 60 had died.

The explosives, which were being dispatched for a road construction project, detonated on a truck at the Karadiyanaru police station, 260 km east of Colombo, military spokesman Major General Udaya Medawala said.

'Our initial reports said that at least 60 were killed, but the latest accounts say 25 - consisting of 16 policemen and nine civilians - were killed,' he said.

He said more than 50 people were injured.

Witness accounts said that the damage was extensive, with bodies strewn over a distance of 200 to 300 metres and some still buried under debris.

The explosion occurred when officials of the road construction project came to collect the dynamite from the police station, where the stocks were stored for safety purposes.

Deputy Inspector General of Police Ravi Wijegunawardena said the explosion was accidental and investigations were under way into what caused the detonation.

However, police chief Mahinda Balasuriya, accompanied by a team of officials from the Criminal Investigations Department, were flown into the area to carry out investigations.

A police officer at the scene said the blast levelled the buildings in the police compound.

'We do not know how the explosion went off, but it seemed that it was triggered in one of the trucks, immediately setting off the explosions in the other containers as well,' the officer said.

A civilian who escaped the blast said that there were others who were at the police station to deal with routine matters at the time of the blast.

'I called over at the police station to collect a police report and was told I had to wait for another hour. I went out of the compound to have a cup of tea when the blast went off. I escaped, but some others who came with me were not so lucky,' Thangavelu Ravindran said.

He said that bodies were still under the walls of the buildings and the police and villagers were trying to get them out.

Forty-seven people injured in the blast were admitted to two hospitals in the eastern district of Batticaloa while four others were transferred to Colombo for treatment.

The country's Eastern Province has been calm since government troops recaptured the area from Tamil separatist rebels in 2008. Government troops then went on to defeat the rebels in their northern stronghold.

Major reconstruction projects in Eastern Province, including roads, have got under way after the return of peace to the area.

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