An ardent observer, analyst and critic of politics and current happenings. Truly believes in human equality, poor and peasants have first right on resources, and rule of law essential in a democracy.
Here are my reflections and collections.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Jobless growth of India's GDP

Today, India is facing a peculiar situation of 'jobless growth' and 'growthless jobs' as well, mainly due to defective economic policies and gross fiscal mismanagement.

During the past three years, public sector, government’s headcount remained stagnant. State-run banks registered a job growth of just 0.5%. Private corporations have no better figures.

Every year, 10-12 million young Indians join the labour force, 5 million people leave agriculture to join the non-agriculture sectors. In contrast job creation is few lakhs only during the past three years which are mostly replacement recruitment.

India's GDP growth and new jobs creation in India have not been growing at the same rate. The creation of more and better jobs and livelihoods is imperative for policymakers. Focusing only on GDP growth is a wrong approach.

About 550 jobs are disappearing everyday, an alarmist declaration of loss of one million jobs during past five years.

The lack of lending by the banks may very well be one contributing factor.

Rise in unemployment is due to agriculture and SMEs, which contributes most employment in India, are the worst affected. The organised sector contributes only 1% of jobs.

Big multinationals in India are highly capital-intensive, while the SMEs are four times more labour intensive than the large firms. But they are one of the least productive sectors and their real wages are very low.

India needs to protect sectors like farming, unorganized retail, micro and small enterprises. These sectors need support from the government not regulation.

The agricultural sector in India does absorb more than half the workforce, but a lot of it is disguised unemployment.

The view of Indian villages as the economic backbone of India is flawed and will never lead to the kind of mass employment that is desired in India. At best it minimizes agriculture labour migration to urban areas.

Urbanization creates lots of jobs in developing economies.

92% of enterprises that created jobs were from the informal sector, and the biggest stumbling block for these was lack of formal credit.

India needs to free up its labour laws which are archaic, restrictive, and convoluted which incentivizes firms to stay small and remain in the informal sector. Firms, which can achieve economies of scale, are the need of the hour to create jobs for the masses in India.

India needs to focus on primary and secondary education and skills development. A skilled worker has a better chance at finding higher paying employment.

At present, the business environment is the toughest for small to medium enterprises. Improvement of 'ease of doing business' to firms of all sizes, to be set up and facilitate its smooth running.

Focus on infrastructure and tourism, on sustainable basis, will help creation of jobs at the unorganized level.

My View:

Modi administration, in the name of reforms is actually destroying 'informal sector' which are mostly operated by less educated people employing semi skilled people. Modi's failed demonetization and hurriedly rolled out mangled GST have destroyed informal sector, agriculture, construction and tiny industries, while achieving nothing. Winning elections is all about hammering of selective narratives rather than sound public policies. Aside improving 'ease of doing business', promoting manufacturing, preserving agriculture at profitable levels, encouraging small businesses & industries, services, infrastructure, tourism are the keys for providing employment to masses. Banks must be financially healthy and support informal sector so that our economy grows and provide employment to our aspiring youth. Trophy projects, white elephants and icons are not the indicators of development. It is all round life style improvement of poorest people, which is called 'development'.