Monday, January 26, 2009

Boo. Effing. Yah.

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" - John Maynard Keynes.

I hope to have a longer post later, once we have the full details of the contract. For now, suffice it to say that I withdraw the withdrawal of my support for Dayton Moore. Well played, sir. We'll just call Willie Bloomquist the price of doing business.

And if it so happens that there's an option year or two tucked in at the end of the four-year contract, well, it's probably a good thing I already named my daughter.

While I don't see the winter moves as part of a plan to convince Greinke to stay, it is certainly true that the one big thing Dayton Moore had in his pocket this winter was signing him long-term, and he got that right. Offseason Grade: B (right direction, good, not perfect)

If he further goes and flips those odd parts for things of real value, then I'd move that up.

I'm right with Joal - when a buddy of mine sent me the good news before lunch today, the only thing I wrote him back was "Good - now maybe Rany will be back on the Moore bandwagon". It's almost sickening how much some of us are obsessed with your darn blog, good sir. ;)

I knew something was up. My wife called me this morning to tell me she saw Zack in a KC orthopedic doctor's office this morning with a guy in a suit who she thought was his agent by the way he acted and was dressed. I was dreading it to be the "pre-trade" exam, and am glad it was for this instead!!!

Now will you PLEASE SHUT UP ABOUT IT? Between you and Petro, you'd have thought the very foundations of Kauffman Stadium would collapse if Wacko Zacko wasn't signed to a long term contract. I get it - he had a fine season last year. Let's remember, though, that it was the first consistently good season he's had in the major leagues, and he could just as easily go Jimmy Pearsall all over again. I don't mean to be unkind, but the rattle about Grienke has overshadowed every other positive move made since Moore took over. Although this is probably a good investment in the Royals' future, I can truly say that my #1 reason I'm glad the contract is signed is that now we get to quit hearing about it.

I'll hold off the victory parade until Gordon fulfills his promise, the two-headed BuckOlivo monster is solved, and 1B doesn't look like a waiting room for Triple-A All-Stars. But DM did what he had to. Now let's see if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and dispense Gload, et al. and get winners on the field.

I am very pleased with this signing. Having said that, it is somewhat disturbing to see that it is so backloaded. It seems to me that they wanted to give the big $$$ after Guillen's contract was off the books. Does that mean we can "only afford" one or two (Meche) large contracts at any one time? I hope not. I am hopeful that it is more a result of an expected increase in revenues due to the stadium renovations and more revenue sharing. Time will tell.

Related to all that is an interest I would have in pursuing Ben Sheets. You add him to the rotation and suddenly you have as good a pitching staff as ANYBODY! I believe that and thing that if he can be signed for "only" $8M per for about three years... we should do that!

Lastly, I have not totally given up on the hope that Guillen can be a big bat in the lineup and one of the better offensive players in the League. BUT... since that doesn't seem to be the shared opinion of most of you... maybe the Royals should propose a BUYOUT of his contract and give him $12M to go away. That would save #12M for the team while allowing Jose to go play for a team of his choosing. That extra $12M could then go toward Sheets and maybe even Dunn. Thoughs?

There's really no precedent (or possibility) for a "buyout" for Guillen or anyone else in MLB. He is owed/guaranteed $24m over the next two years regardless of whether he plays for us or someone else or no one else. So he can't/won't take $12m to go away when he is guaranteed $24 by doing nothing other than not retiring. Hopefully he can have a good/healthy/productive year, or perhaps can be traded (doubtful), but he'll get the $24m regardless.

The Dodgers got Andruw Jones to agree to defer a lot of his salary to future years in exchange for being granted free agency, allowing the Dodgers greater flexibility. But that just means LA ends up paying the salary + interest.

Anyway, I think all we can do is hope for the best production and hope the team is competitive WITH Guillen, because there's no way to get the money back for this or next year barring a very helpful trade partner.

Further proof that the MLBPA is the STRONGEST of all Unions! I am curious though if you KNOW for certain that there is not even a "possibility" for it? I know there is no precedent but I did not KNOW that it was against the rules! Plus... who is to say, despite Manny, Dunn, and Abreu still being available that we couldn't find someone to take at least PART of Jose's contract?

Anyway, as I've said, I haven't given up hope for Guillen to be a productive member of the Royals.

Bertrand Russell named Keynes the most intelligent person he had ever known, commenting, "Every time I argued with Keynes, I felt that I took my life in my hands and I seldom emerged without feeling something of a fool."

I know little about Keynesian macroeconomics (only the theory in general form), however, I know much about Russell, and if he respects Keynes, I have to as well.

"I am curious though if you KNOW for certain that there is not even a "possibility" for it? I know there is no precedent but I did not KNOW that it was against the rules!"

It's not against the rules, it's just that a player would never do it. As long as Guillen doesn't retire, he's guaranteed the rest of his contract. Barring a trade (unlikely b/c the contract sucks), the Royals are on the hook for it.

A couple of these comments wondered whether the Royals could afford more than a couple large contracts at a time, since Greinke's deal is backloaded for after Jose Guillen's deal is off the books.

I heard Dayton Moore interviewed on XM Radio yesterday afternoon, and they asked him a similar question in relation to the Royals' payroll, etc.

I'm paraphrasing here, but Moore stated that the Royals haven't drawn 2 million in attendance since "the late 80s," and that until they're able to do that, it really isn't feasible for them to go beyond the $70-75 million range. He then said that if KC is able to draw between 2 million and 2.4 million fans, they think they'd be able to jump payroll up to about $80-85 million.

In other words, it's up to us -- the fans -- to get out to the newly-renovated K and fill those seats! If we want an Adam Dunn, or a Ben Sheets, or the next sought-after free agent, then Kansas City needs to get behind this team and show our support for the front office making deals like the one they just gave Greinke. Fill the seats, and spend your money, and future deals WILL be made to continue to improve this franchise.

I might be crazy. And I know the payroll is probably maxed out with both good and bad deals this off-season. But add B. Sheets or Oliver Perez to the rotation and I think we could have a realistic chance at winning the division. Thoughts?

You guys are ridiculous when it comes to Guillen. Is it a bad contract? Yes. Would it be even more stupid to give him half of what he is owed, 12 million, to simply not play? Yes. Your hate for Guillen is blinding common logic. By agreeing to this scenario and granting him 12 mil for free, you are basically saying that he is not worth 2 years at 6 mil/per and that is ridiculous. Regardless of whether you like his contract or not, 162 games of Guillen in right field means more victories that 162 games of Teahen/Bloomquist/Maier/Gload out there.

My support for DM never died, but he had me worried for awhile. I STILL don't like the Jacobs or Bloomquist signings, but I guess I can live with them if DM proves that he's willing and able to keep some of the blue chip talent that he DOES have. The Greinke deal keeps Zack here for the first two years of FA, which is a GREAT move for the Royals. At 4/$38 million the price tag is also a little lower than I expected it would be. Well played Sir, well played.

Back to Jacobs and Bloomquist. If signing them meand the end for Gload and Pena I'm okay with it, but ONLY if it means the both of them are gone (although I'd entertain TPJ the relief pitcher). Obviously not all moves a GM makes are going to pan out, but some of them defy logic, and that's where Bloomquist and Jacobs will sit if Gload and TPJ stay on the roster.