Poll: Palin Increasingly Weighing Down McCain

Thursday

Oct 30, 2008 at 10:40 PM

Voters think the Republican running mate is underqualified.By MICHAEL COOPER & DALIA SUSSMANTHE NEW YORK TIMESA growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said that Palin was not prepared for the job, up 9 percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said that the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favored Senator Barack Obama.

In a possible indication that the choice of Palin has hurt McCain's image, voters said that they had much more confidence in Obama to pick qualified people to serve in his administration than they did in McCain.

After nearly two years of campaigning, a pair of hotly contested nominating battles, a series of debates and an avalanche of ads, the new nationwide poll found the contours of the race taking shape in the last days before the election on Tuesday. Among the findings:

Obama is maintaining his lead, with 51 percent of likely voters supporting him and 40 percent supporting McCain in a head-to-head match up.

Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today.

McCain's focus on taxes - including his talk about "Joe the Plumber" - seems to be having some effect, as a growing number of voters now say that McCain would not raise their taxes. The Arizona Republican has enlisted the help of Samuel J. Wurzelbacher of Ohio, whom he calls Joe the Plumber, since Obama told him he wanted to "spread the wealth."

Eighty-nine percent of people view the economy negatively, and 85 percent think the country is on the wrong track.

Obama continues to have a significant advantage on such crucial issues as the economy, health care, and the war in Iraq.

The survey found that opinions of Obama and McCain have hardened considerably.

Nine in 10 voters who said that they had settled on a candidate indicated that their minds were made up; a growing number of them called it "extremely important" that their candidate win the election on Tuesday.

About half of each of the candidate's supporters said that they were "scared" of what the other candidate would do if elected. Just 4 percent of voters were undecided, and when they were pressed to say whom they were leaning toward, the shape of the race remained essentially the same.

Bolstered by the fiscal crisis and deep concerns about the direction of the country, Obama has seemed to solidify the support he has gained in recent months. When likely voters were asked whom they would vote for in an expanded field that included several third-party candidates, Obama got the support of 52 percent of them, McCain 39 percent, former Senator Bob Barr of Georgia 1 percent, and Ralph Nader 2 percent.

The poll was conducted as a wide range of state polls have shown Obama ahead or tied in several crucial contested states, including some historically Republican states that McCain must carry to win the election.

The survey suggested that the historic candidacy of Obama, who would be the first African-American president if elected, has changed some perceptions of race in America.

Nearly two-thirds of those polled said that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in today's society, up from the half who said that they thought so in July. And while 14 percent still said that most people they know would not vote for a black presidential candidate, a question pollsters often ask to try to gauge bias, the number has dropped considerably since the campaign began.

McCain's heavy focus on taxes in the final weeks of the campaign seems to be having some effect, the poll found. Forty-seven percent of voters said that McCain would not raise taxes on people like them, up from just 38 percent who said so two weeks ago. (And 50 percent said that they thought Obama would raise taxes on people like them, while 44 percent said that he would not; both numbers are similar to two weeks ago.)

With just days until Americans choose a new president, the survey found respondents deeply uneasy about the state of their country.

Eight-five percent of them said that the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, near the record high recorded earlier this month. A majority said that the United States should have stayed out of Iraq.

And President Bush's approval rating remains at 22 percent, tied for the lowest presidential approval rating on record (which was President Harry S. Truman's rating, recorded by the Gallup poll in 1952).

McCain's renewed efforts to recast himself as the candidate of change - he and Palin sometimes refer to themselves as "a couple of mavericks" - have apparently faltered. Sixty-four percent of voters polled said that Obama would bring about real change if elected, while only 39 percent said that McCain would. And despite McCain's increased efforts to distance himself from President Bush, a majority still said that he would generally continue President Bush's policies.

Dixie Cromwell, a 36-year-old cosmetologist from Shelby, N.C., who is a Republican, said in a follow-up interview that she had already voted for Obama.

"I come from a family of Republicans and I generally vote Republican, but this year I voted Democrat," she said. "I just don't feel we can go through any more of the same old thing that we've been going through with the Republican party."

The poll showed that voters have sharply different expectations of how both men would perform as president. Obama's policies were seen as much more likely to improve the economy, provide health insurance to more people, and scale back military involvement in Iraq than those of McCain.

But McCain enjoyed an advantage when it came to questions about which candidate would make a better commander in chief: 47 percent of voters said that McCain was very likely to be an effective commander in chief, compared with 33 percent who said Obama would be.

While a majority viewed Palin as unqualified for the vice presidency, about three quarters of voters saw Obama's running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, as qualified for the job. The increase in the number of voters who said that Palin was not prepared was driven almost entirely by Republicans and independents.

Overall, views of Palin were apparently shaped more by ideology and party than by gender. Palin was viewed as unprepared for the job by about 6 in 10 men and women alike. But 8 in 10 Democrats viewed her as unprepared, as well as more than 6 in 10 independents, and 3 in 10 Republicans.

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