James Kirkup is The Telegraph's Executive Editor (Politics). He was previously the Telegraph's Political Editor and has worked at Westminster since 2001.

Memo to Tory optimists: Labour is losing support, but you're not gaining it

Very quick post to highlight the latest Polling Observatory report from the excellent Rob Ford and co, which should be required reading for all those Conservatives who are going around talking about an upswing in Tory fortunes and an inevitable Conservative majority next year. Read it here.

The striking finding today:

It is noticeable that while Labour’s support has been in decline for the last six to nine months (having plateaued for a period before that) underlying Conservative support has remained incredibly stable around the 31% level. In fact, setting aside the slight slump around the time of the last UKIP surge at the 2013 local elections, their standing with the electorate has been flat since its crash of April 2012 around the time of the "omnishambles" budget. The narrowing in Labour’s lead over the past year is entirely the result of Labour losing support, not of the Conservatives gaining it.

(My bold.)

Of course, usual disclaimers apply, and political practitioners can reasonably argue that polls tell you where you’ve been, not where you’re going. But this is another reminder that if the Conservatives really are going to achieve that outright victory next year, they still have a long way to go. It’s also confirmation that things are not going well at all for Ed Miliband.

I’ve said it before, but the question is still worth asking: is 2015 going to be a contest that both the big parties lose?