Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 12th Jan 2019

Kempton and Warwick horse racing tips

As long as the weather holds out then the ITV cameras have plenty of action for us this Saturday with LIVE racing from Kemptonand Warwick. The Classic Chase is the main event at Warwick.

At Kempton we’ve four LIVE races to take in that include the Lanzarote Hurdle – since 1980 32 of the 37 renewals have been won by a horse aged 7 or younger.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
4/5 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
4/5 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Had won over fences at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/4
Waiting Patiently won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King is just 3 from 39 (8%) with her chasers at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT:Waiting Patiently misses the race so that certainly gives the others a better chance. We can expect Speredek to take them along from the front and even though he should make a bold bid he’ll probably be setting the race up for one of three – Black Corton, Charbel or Top Notch. Of that trio, Black Corton seems to have a bit to prove at the moment after being pulled up at Newbury in the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy last month and is now winless from this last four – but he’s the only course winner in the field so can’t be ruled out. Top Notch returned with a fair third over hurdles in the Long Walk three weeks ago but has won 7 times (from 11) over fences so is just as good over the bigger obstacles. The Henderson yard also took this in 2016 and 2017, plus also have a 30% record in at the track with their chasers – he’s a big player. However, the Kim Bailey-trained CHARBEL is rated the same as Top Notch but a recent 8 length win in the Peterborough Chase was a top effort and prior to that ran Politologue to ½ a length at Ascot. The rating suggests there will be nothing between them but based on the form he’s shown this season Charbel just edges it for me.

2.40 – Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
12/17 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
11/17 – Irish (6) or French (5) bred
10/17 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (37 runnings) 32 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT:Erik Le Rouge is the only course and distance winner in the field so is one for the shortlist. He’s won all three of his starts this term and looks a real improver for the Jane Williams yard. It won’t, however, be easy carrying 11st 10lbs. The Gary Moore yard have won this race three times in the past and in Kloud Gate they looked have another big chance. This 7 year-old has won his last two in decent fashion and looks to have more to come. However, he’s no real value in the market and a 12lb hike in the ratings looks a tad harsh. He’s a player, but will require more. Lord Napier and Cotswold Way are others to consider but with Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls yards also having good records in the race their 6 year-old runners – DOUX PRETENDER and DARLING MALTAIX – are the ones I’m interested in – 10 of the last 17 winners were 6 years-olds. The first-named won his return race this season at Ascot and wasn’t disgraced at Cheltenham last time out (5th). That run came over 3m, but he clearly didn’t quite see out the trip so the drop back to 2m5f is a huge plus and he can go close. Darling Malatrix won well last time at Ascot and despite a 12lbs rise won with plenty in-hand. He travelled really well into the race that day and was clearly suited to that first time over this 2m5f trip. Jockey Lorcan Williams gets on well with the horse and can claim 5lbs too, while the Nicholls yard continue to have their horses in good order.

3.15 – Unibet Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just six previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Had run at the track before
5/6 – Unplaced last time out
4/6 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/6 – Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
5/6 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/6 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
4/6 – Placed favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 is 5/1
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Course winner Josses Hill, from the in-form Nicky Henderson yard, and Barney Dwan, who sports the first-time cheekpieces, can go well, but Ballykan was a decent second in the race 12 months ago and is actually a pound lower this time so looks to also have a big chance with his recent return run (second) at Fakenham a solid effort. Yes, he’s got a touch of the seconds at the moment after being runner-up in his last three starts but that also tells us he’s a solid performer that should also be a lot better for that last run as it came off a break. Glen Rocco and Bally Longford are others to consider.

3.45 – Unibet Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/10 – Aged 6 or older
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
8/10 – Aged 6 years-old
8/10 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Returned a double-figure price
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Eddiemaurice and Oakley were both good winners last time out so head here in form, while the Ian Williams yard have a decent 26% strike-rate with their hurdlers at the track so their consistent Speed Company enters calculations too. However, DINO VELVET comes from the Alan King yard that won this in 2017 and he I expect him to have improved from his recent fifth here as that was only his second run back from a break and is also a pound lower. The consistent Speed Company comes from a yard (Ian Williams) that often do well at the track with their hurdlers (26%), but their overall form is not great at the moment, while being the only course and distance winner in the field then Magic Dancer must have a squeak too.

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

11/11 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
11/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/11 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
9/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/11 – Aged 7 years-old
7/11 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Irish bred
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: I’ve been impressed with the way ROCKY’S TREASURE has improved this season to win four of his five starts over fences and there should be more in the locker. His only defeat came at the hands of the useful Santini too, but he since bounced back from that to win well at Doncaster. He’s a front runner that might just prove hard to peg back over here and he’s taken to continue his upward curve. The useful novice hurdler – Ok Corral – also won on his chase debut at Plumpton but his jumping will come under a lot more pressure here, so I’d rather be with one of the more experienced sorts. Secret Investor and White Moon make up the field and are certainly not with a chance either, but the selection looks progressive and I’ve been impressed with his jumping and attitude so far.

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/12 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
8/12 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT:Tidal Flow went into many a notebook after his two recent wins Kempton and Newbury, while Stoney Mountain, Beakstown and Rockpoint are others that command respect. However, it’s hard to get away from the Nicky Henderson runner – BIRCHDALE – here. He was impressive when winning well on his UK debut over this course and distance last month and is already around 20/1 for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The yard also won this race last year and with Barry Geraghty coming here to ride this one for his boss – JP McManus – then that’s another good sign.

13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
12/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/13 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
9/13 – Officially rated between 129-140
9/13 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
8/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/13 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/13 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price
6/13 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 10.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Last year’s winner – Milansbar – will be looking to become the first repeat winner of this race and despite being the oldest runner in the field (12) he’s got a live chance again off 6lbs higher. He’ll be better for a recent run at Sandown but really he might want the ground to get a lot softer. The Twiston-Davies yard have won this race once in the past and in Calett Mad and Cogry they’ve two fair chances of going well. Another yard that’s got history in the race is Paul Nicholls with three successes – he runs Ibis Du Rheu and that stable boast a decent 32% record with their chasers at the course. Step Back would be interesting if he’s anywhere near the form that saw him win last season’s Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown but he’s up 14lbs from that so has a bit to price. However, the two that get in here with light weights and tick a lot of the main trends are DUEL AT DAWN and CAROLE’S DESTRIER. The last-named was a good winner at Newbury and despite his age (11) hails from a yard that have a good record with their chasers here (31%). He’s up just 3lbs for that last win and that success was also a good sign he’s not fallen out of love with the game. Duel At Dawn is better than his showed last time at Haydock but that was his first run back after a break and he can go well too off just 10st 5lbs. He’s been placed in the top two in four of his 6 chase starts and looks well worth a crack over this longer trip.

13/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/13 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
10/13 – Officially rated between 126-142
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Placed favourites
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/13 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT:Blaklion is interesting back over hurdles but is on a bit of a recovery mission after flopping in several recent races. Keeper HillandFirst Assignment look more reliable at this stage and both come here off the back of good runs. The only niggle about First Assignment is the form of the Ian Williams yard at the moment. Notwhatiam can’t be discounted either as the form of his recent third to Midnight Shadow has since been franked with that horse winning well at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Perfect ManandLungarno Palacehave solid form that can see them go well but I’ll stick with KEEPER HILL (e/w), who ran well in a competitive race at Cheltenham last time out to be second. He’s 3lbs higher but connections put the useful Harry Teal on to claim 5lbs to offset that. This will be his third run back from a break so should also be hitting boiling point very soon. The Greatrex yard are a bit in-and-out at the moment but I’ll still take a chance on him. Of those at bigger prices the Neil King and Phil Middleton yards both have good records with their hurdlers at the track so Oh Land Abloom and Holly Bush Henry are worth a look in the market – especially the last-named as Richard Johnson has been booked to ride.

Andy is a member of the Horserace Writers’ Association, and also works closely with the three time former champion jockey Richard Dunwoody, while has also appeared as one of the featured tipsters in the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Weatherby’s Official Cheltenham Festival Guide. Andy has a monthly article in the popular Racing Ahead magazine and helps run the unique Trainers Quotes site, so has an array of top stable contacts at his disposal too.