Low level moisture has increased quite a bit this morning across southern Missouri ahead of a frontal boundary. Late morning surface dew points had risen into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low clouds have also developed across southwest Missouri in response to the increasing moisture. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level short wave trough was in the process of moving southeast into northeastern Kansas.

As we head into this afternoon, that front will slowly seep south across southern Missouri with the approaching wave. Short range models have been insistent on developing scattered convection across south-central Missouri from early to mid afternoon. The big question is how much of a capping inversion will remain in place. Models are actually increasing the capping strength this afternoon from west to east across southern Missouri. A look at upstream raobs would support this increase in cap strength. It does appear that there will still be a window of opportunity along and east of U.S. 65 and south of I-44 where mid-level temperatures will remain coolest into this afternoon.

With that being said, MLCAPE values in the 1400-1800 j/kg range appear quite plausible. 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the 30-35 knot range which will support some updraft organization. We have therefore included a limited large hail risk (up to the size of quarters) in the severe weather potential statement.

Any convection that develops will begin to diminish and shift south of the area by early this evening.

A warm day is in store across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas as a weak front drops southward into the area this afternoon. Southerly winds to start the day and 850 mb temperatures in the 10 to 13 degree celsius range will support highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Another warm day can be expected Wednesday. Southerly winds will be on the increase as a front takes shape over the plains. Isolated convection again cannot be ruled beginning as Wednesday morning and throughout the day as the boundary lifts north as a warm front.

The cold front will advance southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper level trough digs into the western U.S. Convection will develop across the plains into the upper Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night along the advancing front then spread southeastward toward the Ozarks and Osage Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It appears that we may first deal with decaying convection in this time frame. The question then becomes how far south the front advances Thursday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west.

Indications are that the front will stall somewhat across the area with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. While the extent of surface heating is in question for Thursday there will likely be sufficient instability given steepening lapse rates coupled with strong deep layer shear to support some strong to potentially severe storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening ahead of the front across far southern Missouri.

Expect Post frontal showers and embedded thunder to continue into Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the shortwave trough tracks eastward and front sags southward. Training convection could result in heavy rainfall totals and a risk for localized flooding later Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures will follow the frontal passage for Friday with a gradual warming trend over the weekend. Medium range models suggest active weather returns early next week.

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR for most of southern Missouri this afternoon. A cold front will push into southern Missouri and is expected to produce scattered thunderstorms over south-central Missouri. Some of this activity is expected to develop in the vicinity of the Branson terminal.

Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish this evening with dry weather expected overnight. Some weather models are indicating returning MVFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) late tonight or early Wednesday morning across portions of southern Missouri. The greatest prospects for this occurring will be around Joplin and Branson.

Winds will also increase out of the southeast on Wednesday and will exceed 12 knots at Joplin and Springfield.

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Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... MO...none. Kansas...none. &&

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Update...schaumann short term...Foster long term...Foster aviation...schaumann