quote:I would have to think that the housing market in the gulf south is still pretty solid if it ever really took that much of a hit to begin with.

That would be the hardest market to measure. We didn't have a housing bubble here, but Katrina resulted in a mini-bubble where people made panic buys on high ground in 2006-2007. So it's hard to say whether the housing market cooled due to national economic trends or just a return to earth after Katrina.

I used to crunch quarterly numbers for the MS coast, and only houses under $50K were moving well in 2011. Anything over that had long marketing times and a 10 or 11 month supply. Of course, any number of factors could have caused that.

Biggest thing that keeps housing prices low on the MS coast in the long run is the fact that land isn't scarce.

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by Ton Chou on 1/26/13 at 9:45 am to Powerman)

Its not a terrible thing, but in terms of economic growth, its not contributing to more jobs because you and millions of others have a resurgence in disposable income. I can also tell you that personally, due to rising costs of my monthly expenses, my disposable income is much less than it was 3 years ago. More money going to less people. ETA: My 401k is doing quite nicely as well, however, the local business that I might support more if I could could give two shits about it as I have another 27 years till I can start spending it.

quote:the gas price talking point has always been a red herring, and any who offer it as a serious argument marginalize their opinion imv

This.

Gas and oil prices are a world market, there is very little the US could do dramatically lower fuel prices short of massive government intervention in the domestic market. You know what has happened in the past 4 years, development countries including China and Brazil are using a lot more oil. When demand increases without a corresponding increase in supply, your prices go up.

quote:So if I buy and sell stock at a profit, that doesn't put money in my account that I can spend?

I doubt you are investing for monthly spending money. You see, I'm republican and one problem I have with Rush, Glenn and republican politicians speaking on the economy is the assumption that more than 15% of this country has the mental capacity to engage in investing. Hell, they can't even manage their 401K accounts. Those that do invest usually end up reinvesting profits. None of this does jack for the current economy.

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by eelsuee on 1/26/13 at 10:01 am to Powerman)

quote: Are we finally out of the recession? Markets have had a really strong run very recently and jobs data seems to be looking up

Be cautious when assuming that strong markets mean strong economy. The highest DJIA and S&P 500 ever (October 2007) were on the eve of the worst recession in modern history. The highest Nasdaq ever (2000) was right before the most recent recession prior to 2008.

I do it in project management. Estimate high and look golden when the project comes in at a lower costs.

quote:Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to a five-year low. The index of American leading indicators rose by the most in three months. The U.S. House voted to temporarily suspend the nation’s borrowing limit, removing the debt ceiling for now as a tool for seeking deeper spending cuts.

Look up participation rate (lowest since 1980) and tax revenues (inflation adjusted) and get back with me.

quote:The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.1 percent for the week to 1,502.96. It has added 2.2 percent in eight days, the longest rally since November 2004. (SPX) The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 246.28 points, or 1.8 percent, to 13,895.98. Both measures are trading at the highest levels since 2007.

Even though Bernanke has a duel mandate of stable prices and low unemployment (whatever that means) in 2008 he invented another Fed objective, pump equities. He's done a good job of that to the benefit of Wall Street. Now if can only get that money to "trickle" down to people and increase that pesky participation rate.

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by Powerman on 1/26/13 at 10:14 am to eelsuee)

quote:

Be cautious when assuming that strong markets mean strong economy. The highest DJIA and S&P 500 ever (October 2007) were on the eve of the worst recession in modern history. The highest Nasdaq ever (2000) was right before the most recent recession prior to 2008.

Right

But it's not just markets improving. Labor data is suggesting things are getting better as well.

I don't think we're approaching any sort of bubble like we were in 2007-2008.

I could be wrong, but I don't understand why people pretend that positive economic data isn't out there. Why all the doom and gloom? It's as if people are fabricating bad news because they can't stomach the good news.

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by StPeteLSU on 1/26/13 at 10:22 am to Powerman)

Where is the proof labor data is getting better? You keep saying that but I dont see any proof. Maybe unemployment took a very slight dip but when you look at the increasing amount of people that dropped out of the labor force the number is artificial. Think about it. If 8 out of 100 people are unemployed that is 8%. If one of those 8 drops out of the labor force then only 7 of 100 are unemployed by the numbers that get published. So in actuality there are not more people working. Does that make sense?

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by Jake88 on 1/26/13 at 10:23 am to Powerman)

quote:What about the market indices? Is that all fake too?

Are you really so superficial that you let those inform you on the health of the economy? As someone mentioned earlier, the markets have done well despite the lingering effects of the recession. The markets were sky high just before the fall in 08-09. They inform on very little.

And the reason people still think we're in a recession despite it ending in 2009 is simple. The effects are still being felt despite the anemic numbers showing up on paper.

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by Ton Chou on 1/26/13 at 10:27 am to Powerman)

Dude, we are going on 4 plus years of new claims for unemployment being between 300 and 400k per MONTH. If it takes 200K additions to break even and the economy is adding less than that, the math isn't really that hard. That's like draining a pool and when there is only a few gallons left saying that you've slowed the daily leakage. Do you have a family/children and a house or are you judging things based on your rent controlled apartment rent and your bar tab? Do you or have you ever worked for a publicy traded company? Multiply rising food, medical, education and clothing expenses by four and see how that works for you. And this is not just my "personal plight". I have co-workers and a network or former co-workers and people from around the country from going to industry events who all say the same thing. The situation is exacerbated by public companies who look to keep costs down or cut costs by several straight years of 2-3% raises, lower bonus pools and layoffs, yet the executives keep getting 15% raises and ridiculous stock grants for keeping profits up. Meanwhile, disposable income for the rank and file workers goes down, they contribute less to the local economy which has a ripple effect to all other businesses. Once you plant yourself with a family, its a bit tough to go job hopping around the country to get substantial pay increases.

re: Are we finally out of the recession?(Posted by GumboPot on 1/26/13 at 10:39 am to Jake88)

quote:The markets were sky high just before the fall in 08-09.

They were sky high in un-inflated dollars too. Currently, inflated equities are not near pre-finical crisis highs. With that, Bernanke has done a good job of propping up equities though QE1, QE2, Operation Twist II, and now QE Infinity. LINK