In other words, those fifteen fighters were all I had, but they also were on the spot, and in the correct altitude band (9 to 13 k, while the bombers were estimated at 9 and attacked at 7, and with decent weather).

I'm not sure I see the point of radars and detection times in this specific case. Aren't they supposed to allow more fighters to scramble than those already airborne, or to compensate large altitude differences? My explanation is that Kavieng is probably a very large hex, and the airfield is very far away from the port...

Detection time relates to almost everything ... if your fighters only had 9 minutes to react ... that isn't much. Remember, your fighters aren't that fast, so closing speeds aren't that fast. They are loitering at cruise speed, they have to spot, move to attack position, and close on the bombers. In a tail chase, they are only gaining 1-2 mi/min depending upon the bomber. A B29, they are only closing a few hundred yards/min.

No, 9 mins means the bombers have a good chance to avoid many of your fighters until AFTER the attack.

Paras from Magwe captured Akyab today. The base was empty, and I had hoped that the forts (level four) would be kept, since the base was undefended, and this is what happens when you autocapture it. But no joy. Well, it was a good thing we didn’t have to fight through those four levels of forts, and a level six airfield and level four port provides a good jumping base for our attack on India.

Infantry from Burma (three or four divisions) should arrive tomorrow, tanks in a few more days. A air support unit is being air transported, and two squadrons are rebasing here.

The capture of Akyab poses an interesting question. My opponent holds Port Blair. So far, he did not really managed to prevent convoys to Rangoon, but now that Akyab is becoming my front line base, I wonder whether I should try and send convoys through the Indian Ocean, midway between Ceylon and the Andamans?

Burma is getting very short on supplies. Some do flow from China and Thailand, but levels are still very low everywhere, and so planning convoys from the DEI becomes a necessity.

Fuel, oil and resource flow

Most of my convoys to the Home islands are from Fusan. There are a few from Hokkaido, but I’m pretty much done with Hokkaido resources (160 000 tons left, down 150 000 a month).

Resources are nicely flowing to Fusan, and quickly brought back to Japan. We now have five million tons in stock, up 600 000 since last month.

Until recently, fuel did not flow up to Fusan, most of it remained in Singapore (where I now have 2.7 million tons of it), but I have begun starting small CS fuel convoys from Fusan, and it seems Fusan is slowly drawing fuel. In a week, the stock went from 10 000 to 100 000 tons, and my convoys are now bringing fuel to Japan. I am planning to try the same for oil. If so, it seems that fuel/oil draw from Fusan is a pretty simple affair. Just grow the port to maximum, then attach enough computer controlled fuel convoys, and there you go.

Just be careful where the fuel is coming from. I can draw it easily there, but it comes from Port Arthur and other Manchurian bases, and I never was able to get the draw from even Hong Kong, let alone farther south. I hope you can make it work.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

It is still too early to call as those draw graphs take a while to settle (and I've been adding more convoys recently), but monitoring by region seems to give a clue. Over the last ten days, fuel stocks in Korea went up 100k, Manchukuo was stable, and China went down 100k. So my hunch is that I'm drawing from China. A closer look suggests Hong Kong. Now, Hong Kong used to be drawing from Singapore, so the question is, once Hong Kong stocks get lower, do we end up drawing from Malaysia?

I suspect fuel is relatively easy to draw, rebase enough ships in Fusan, and this should probably do the trick. I'm more curious about oil, which seems to flow in very weird ways. Right now, I have difficulty getting it anywhere BUT Singapore (it doesn't even stay in Port Arthur). Maybe it is just a matter of having enough Oil CS...

Still on holiday, reading Les Misérables, which really is a great book, a poet’s novel (as opposed to novelist novels, like Tolstoi, Balzac, or Dostoievsky). The war is going on, but it is slightly boring at the moment, so I’m just pushing turns around, hoping something happens…

December 13th

I am having more and more difficulty supplying the Solomons. Last week, a convoy to Tulagi was torpedoed near Ontong Java, and today, a light cargo ready to unload in Tassafaronga was sunk by Beaufighters from Rossel Island. I am evacuating most of my troops in the area, but I’d rather keep what’s left supplied. I have no airfields there, and don’t intend to build any. What do you do against this? Have Rufes on LRCAP? Supply by air?

Several squadrons from Ndeni bombed Kirakira and Lunga today. This happened a lot over the last few weeks. Is an invasion on its way? KB is a few hexes behind, undetected so far (I hope it lasts), and would be in position to damage anything jumping at Kirakira or Lunga. Kirakira is almost empty, and I am evacuating Tulagi and Tassafaronga. Lunga will take a while.

I am quite happy to let Guadalcanal go in January 43, and if a few ships can be sunk in the process, this might keep my opponent on his current slow rate of advance. This suits me fine.

The islands north of Darwin have been bombed too, with little damage done. Again, I have carriers and surface groups not far behind, just in case. I am not ready to let those go now, as I need a few months to reinforce the line behind them.

I am very late in my fortification plan, I hope my opponent waits some more (right now, I believe he is waiting for the new planes he’ll get in mid 43, that would be perfect).

Milk run in Port Blair

Ships were detected in Port Blair today, and the airfield was repopulated with fighters. We swept them from Bangkok, and bombed them from Rangoon and Sabang, but lost quite a few Oscars to their Hurricanes (losses were 25 to 7). We did manage to put a fish into a light cruiser, though.

So, today, everything that could fly was sent against Port Blair, in the hope of shooting Hurricanes down, sinking cargoes, and perhaps getting a few more hits on poor Caradoc.

I had tried to play it by the book, and in fact everything went relatively fine. First, my sweeping squadrons were based closer than my bombers. I swept from Bangkok, Victoria Point and Trinkat, and bombed from Rangoon, Georgetown and Sabang. And in fact, two sweeps happened before the bombers arrived.

Both sweeps managed to remove most of the CAP, and the first bombing runs were met by only four Hurricanes (down from the 33 my opponent had on CAP). Those weren’t very successful : only one cargo was hit.

Esperance, Pasha and Tak Sank are reported sunk. Silverwillow and Clan Macindoe are probably not in good shape. Exeter is reported sunk, but this must be FOW, Caradoc might be done with… We lost 12 Betties, 6 Oscars and 4 zeroes, for ten Hurricanes and four Martlets.

I am not attacking tomorrow. My squadrons are just too fatigued. Some bombers have been kept on naval bombing a few hexes short of Port Blair, to try and catch stragglers. A surface force was sent at flank speed towards the possible retreat path of the damaged ships, and some fighters were ordered to LRCAP it. There should be a lull tomorrow, but I’m sure hoping to catch more the day after tomorrow. Finishing the Exeter and some of the destroyers would be nice.

I realize I have enough force to try and blockade Port Blair. My opponent has sixteen units there, which most certainly use a lot of supplies, hence those milk runs. I am now considering capturing Little Andaman (which is still British and unoccupied), and developing Car Nicobar, so that we can make the position very difficult to supply, and let those units rot. This will help securing the sea lanes to Rangoon and Akyab.

The lazy empire

If I were to describe the game so far, I would say I have botched my way into a decent position. Enemy advance has been stopped in the South Pacific, the East Indies are under control, we hold all of China, are on the move in Burma and seem to be successful at last at isolating Port Blair, the economy is fine, and I think I have a decent understanding of the strategic situation.

Yet, my defenses are terribly weak. For months, I have been pushing front line units around, changing a few parameters, but didn’t really care about the details, and whole parts of the game have been ignored. As we speak, lots of reinforcements are still in Japan, pilot training is quite insufficient, a large part of my navy is collecting rust in ports, I have no naval search to speak of, and base building is not really supervised.

Now, I do understand I need to do something about this. I have been understanding this for months, in fact, and did try on many occasions to correct a few things. Yet I never managed to turn this into a habit.

I believe the problem is that whereas I have a good idea of what needs to be done in the long run, and usually manage to do all the little things that have to be done every day, I lack a list of mid-term tasks, general things I want done over the upcoming month, and which I can check from time to time, as it is just impossible to micromanage everything every turn.

I want to try using this AAR as some sort of scheduling tool, circling through a list of subjects which would constitute all my “midterm subjects”, one subject a day. I’d like to get to something like 20 subjects, so that we circle through everything in a couple of weeks.

Here is a first attempt at a list of subjects. I am trying to split the tasks by service (army, air force, navy, and logistics), by mission, and to differentiate between front line, depots and the rear. And so I came up with this list of 21 tasks.

I’m very interested in opinions and suggestions. Should I add some more general subjects, like leaders, or morale, or fatigue? Have I missed something obvious, or something you think really should be done?

After the attack yesterday, I wanted to rest my fighter squadrons today. This proved to be a good idea. No enemy shipping was detected, which suggests they are still in Port Blair, and we can try to sink more tomorrow. Once squadron was left to sweep Port Blair, and this was a bad idea, as 12 Oscars IIb were shot down, for three Martletts and one sea Hurricane. In Burma, P40-K reappeared over Chitagong. We traded four for three Tojos.

Most of my units are rested now, and the battle for Port Blair will resume tomorrow. I believe my opponent will be in worse shape than me, as his fighters are service rating two, and mine are one. This, by the way, suggests a tactics for fighting enemy CAP. Sweep over long periods of time, resting one day as fatigue mounts. If service ratings correlate with fatigue and disablements, Japanese fighters should have an edge.

Here’s my first attempt at circling through a number of important topics. Not everything is related to the current game situation (this is the point of the approach, in fact), but I hope it will help me play in a more serious fashion.

Things to do: air transport

I have 13 chutai and three sentai of transports, for a total of 198 planes. All but three are unrestricted (or were bought). The last three will probably be at some point. Only one chutai is composed of float planes, the rest is regular planes, which need an airfield to land. This makes level one airfields important elements in one’s strategy. You can’t really fight from such an air strip, but you can use if to transport troops and supplies, or evacuate.

Patrol float planes (Emilies and Mavises) can transport troops too. I have about 150 of these, most of them currently being used to evacuate the Solomons. As those represent most of my float plane transports, I believe I will use them a lot for transport to front line bases.

Supplies can be transported from base to base, or dropped over friendly units. Most of my bombers can do this. So far, I never could move lots of supplies this way. The best it could do was to prevent one very small unit from starving. This needs to be tested.

As for troop transport, every squad and any device with a load cost of nine or less can be transported. This means all the mortars and infantry guns, and small caliber flak and AT guns. Some units can be air transported, others can almost be, a fast transport (Ansyu PB, which carry 1000 tons) being needed to take care of the few large items. At worst, the large devices can be disbanded, and will reappear later (at a cost in supply, naturally).

In practice, most infantry units can be air transported (save the SNLF battalions and some divisions that have tanks, or 88 or 150 guns). Light flak units (machine cannons and the like), HQ, engineers without vehicles, can be too. Air support can be air transported, save their radars or sound detectors. As a rule, base forces, artillery units, and armored units can’t be air transported.

I am planning to use air transport intensively. Right now, my patrol planes are evacuating Guadalcanal, redeploying the infantry north of the island chain in the Gilberts and in New Guinea. Once they are done, they will join my Mavis transport now busy sending construction companies to forward bases in the Timor sea, and then in Flores.

The rest of my (wheeled) transport squadrons are busy ferrying air support and small units. To reduce the dependence on float transports, I am beginning to build landing strips in many forward bases. In fact, every base I intend to defend must have a landing strip so that I can send reinforcements and supplies in, or evacuate part of my forces.

Of course, air transport is not magic, you need a while to move a big unit around, and so you can only reinforce or evacuate a base if the enemy advances slowly. But my current opponent seems to belong to the methodical variety.

I have not yet experimented with supply transports, but I will and try to define a policy in three weeks, when I’ll be back on the subject.

I have 13 chutai and three sentai of transports, for a total of 198 planes. All but three are unrestricted (or were bought). The last three will probably be at some point. Only one chutai is composed of float planes, the rest is regular planes, which need an airfield to land. This makes level one airfields important elements in one’s strategy. You can’t really fight from such an air strip, but you can use if to transport troops and supplies, or evacuate.

Patrol float planes (Emilies and Mavises) can transport troops too. I have about 150 of these, most of them currently being used to evacuate the Solomons. As those represent most of my float plane transports, I believe I will use them a lot for transport to front line bases.

That's about average number of transports, but you have a lot of patrol planes. Or at least more than i build in a standard game.

Most of the action, today, was over Burma. At night, Liberators bombed Rangoon, with little success. Four planes were destroyed on the ground, and three Liberators we lost on their way back. I am happy with this kind of trade.

In the morning, we swept Port Blair with squadrons rested yesterday. Fatigue was probably mounting among the defenders, so we shot down nine Hurricanes, four Sea Hurricanes and two Martlets, for twelve zeroes and six Oscars. I am pretty sure we are done with the CAP over Port Blair, bombers will be back tomorrow.

Finally, we swept Ledo from Paoshan, and found a couple of P-40K there. Four were shot down.

In the afternoon, my opponent tried to bomb Akyab. I had only seven Tojos against 13 Warhawks and as many B25-C, but five Mitchells were shot down for no loss on our side. Those fighter pilots must have been very junior, or fatigued.

Kalemyo was attacked again. It takes a long time to get supplies back after each round, so I can’t attack more than once a week, and this gives my opponent some time to rebuild his forts. The silver lining is that this also provides time to repair my disablements.

Here’s the result for today. I was happy with the morale (-) indication, which suggests we’re progressing.

Of the 638 bases (including dots) Japan now holds, only 345 have garrisons, and 278 have engineers. I really need to garrison more bases, and to begin moving large units bought in China to their final positions.

There is no way I can provide all my front line bases with decent garrisons. But since my opponent has been quite prudent so far, I can probably go a long way with mock garrisons everywhere. The plan, right now, is to try to garrison everything, even with fragments, so as to avoid any autocapture, or free lunch. I don’t know whether this is doable, but I sure will try.

In term of units, troops from China have been relieving Southern Army units in Malaysia, and Burma, and I will soon begin moving those to the DEI. I am receiving a few militia regiments soon, which can probably play a role.

I probably should set up a large excel file, with a list of all units, and their destinations. This looks a bit like a huge endeavor.

Things to do: a note on troop transport speed

So far, troop transport seems to follow a relatively simple rule. All planes (large or small, float or not) transpot one squad or device per day on long distance, and 1.5 on very short ones (5-6 hexes for Emilies, 3-4 for the others). The number of squads transported (or the time needed to move a unit) therefore depends on the number of planes flying, which again depends on fatigue, and the percentage of the squadron resting, or training.

This puts a limit on what air transport can achieve. By concentrating my squadrons, I can probably move a lot of troops relatively fast. But on average, troop transport is a slow process.

With the holiday season ending, I am badly overworked, and the turn rate went down. Unfortunately, my current day (and evening, and night, right now) job does not mix well with AE. I am mostly programming user interface and utilities (file saves, shared parameters, that kind of things), all tasks which require a lot of attention to detail. So, in the evening, AE just looks like work. Anyway, the game is now at December 24th, the Allied offensive seems to be beginning at last, and I have a lot to report, so there is some catching up to be done.

December 18th

More action around Port Blair today. As suspected, enemy fighters had left, and the bombers had a free ride.

A first raid was soaked by the destroyers that escort the unloading cargoes. This usually results in no damage (enemy DD are probably too fast), but the second one went through

Only xAK Subadar was reported sunk, but a steady increase in VP over the last few days suggests several more cargoes went down unreported. Several task forces were detected on their way back to Ceylon. I am sending a surface group to try and finish some (CA Exeter would be a nice find…)

I will be bombing Port Blair again, but overall, I am happy with the action today. Quite a few cargoes were sunk, some in the beginning of the operation, which means lots of supplies sent to Port Blair (where my opponent has 16 units) were probably lost. This means Port Blair will have to be resupplied again soon, and we can sink more cargoes.

Little action today, most of my bombers were too tired to fly, we sank another cargo near Port Blair, but that was all. Sweeps over Ledo shot down a couple of Warhawks.

In the East Indies, one long range raid by 24 B-24D was all it took to destroy ALL the oilfields in Boela (from 25(0) to 0(25)). This doesn’t really hurt, since I took most of the DEI fields intact, but I am more than a bit puzzled about the efficiency of strategic bombing, and the concentration of resources and oilfields. Somehow, I would have thought that whereas industry and refineries were concentrated over small areas, and might be easy targets, resources and oilfields were more scattered, and therefore difficult to bomb, or destroy upon capture. Oh well, I’m a grognard, I like it rough… or I suppose…

December 20th 1942

A few days ago, as the battle around Port Blair, I sent a surface group to try and intercept cripples, or cargoes on their way back to Ceylon. Today we caught two cargoes.

This concludes the battle over Port Blair. I am counting ten British ships, two cruisers and eight cargoes, sunk during this resupply operation, plus a few more that probably failed to make it back home.

In the air, losses were 6 to 19, in our favor. My opponent is bombing my troops around Kalemyo, which does a good job in reducing supplies, but also causes quite a few losses to fighters on CAP. I am counting 40 B24-D lost. He will run out of them, eventually…

Carrier aircrafts were detected over Lunga, and a large task force was spotted near Rennell Island. Could this be the Allied offensive against Guadalcanal? If it is, we might be in for interesting times, as KB is near Ontong Java, on its way to Truk. Rufes were sent to patrol over Lunga, we’ll see tomorrow.

The carriers spotted near Guadalcanal were gone today. But there were P38 sweeping Lunga. Oh my poor Rufes! No other task forces were detected today. I am not sure what my opponent is doing, but I very much doubt an invasion is forthcoming. Sending the carriers first sound like a strange idea, and then the absence of bombardment task forces, or even subs, is strange.

December 22nd 1942

More of the same... sweeps over Lunga, but my Rufes are gone. Beaufighters attacked the port, and probably think they sank an ACM.

I am now pretty sure no attack will come here. My opponent might have tried to attract KB with his carriers. I’m retiring to Truk.

December 23rd 1942

Taberfane it is! Today, several task forces were detected in Taberfane. Why they didn’t bombard or unload is beyond me. Waiting for the night in the harbor?

Tomorrow should be interesting, as I have a large surface group near Ambon, which should be able to disrupt the invasion tomorrow. I have sent Betties and Oscars to Ambon and Namlea (my closest air base), which might achieve something, too. Finally, a carrier division (Hiyo, Junyo and Zuiho) is near Koepang, and will sail towards Ambon. It should be able to intervene the day after tomorrow. KB is also on its way and will try to strike over the isthmus, near Nabire, and ships from Singapore and Surabaya on their way.

Taberfane has a mixed brigade, a RF gun unit, and a tank regiment, behind level two forts. It might prove a bit tougher than the previous bases my opponent took, but most importantly I think I am well positioned to damage his amphibious groups. Unless he has carriers in the area (I doubt it, since I saw some of his carriers new Lunga two days ago), his air support must come from Darwin, and that’s a pretty long range.

I suspect fuel is relatively easy to draw, rebase enough ships in Fusan, and this should probably do the trick. I'm more curious about oil, which seems to flow in very weird ways. Right now, I have difficulty getting it anywhere BUT Singapore (it doesn't even stay in Port Arthur). Maybe it is just a matter of having enough Oil CS...

I've got Fusan drawing fuel on a regular basis and Port Arthur seems to draw as well consistently having between 75-150k on hand most days. Oil is another matter at Fusan and doesn't really stockpile well for me, but I'm only drawing small amounts. Fusan will completely dry up on me in terms of resources though. I can export a lot for a week or two, then it seems to stop and the stockpile reads as the daily 400 for a week or more until another large influx arrives again. I thought this would stop with my recent gains in China, but it hasn't. I do not draw resources from Singapore on a regular basis so I don't think that is affecting anything.

I export fuel/oil from Singapore big time, but I also notice that Saigon is drawing fuel from Burma I believe. Since game start it has increased from a stockpile of 300k to over 400k now. I've started to try loading load oil at Saigon and have enough after a few days to fill up two 7950 or 8150 capacity tankers. This tells me it's either drawing oil from Singapore or Rangoon. I know it's not that far from Singapore in terms of shipping, but oil is moving east along the land route when loading at Saigon, it just won't stockpile in any appreciable amount. I'm going to start trying to load oil from further along the land route, maybe even as far as Hong Kong to see what happens.

For me, Fusan works very well for resources. It seems to be drawing very large quantities (over 200 000 tons, on average), every nine or ten days, and I am sending about 25 000 per day to Japan, so it is basically stable.

Fuel level used to be low, until I began basing many fuel convoys there. Stocks now vary between 10 and 100k. The number of ships you use seem to matter more than their capacity. So you might as well use all the small tankers.

Oil is weird. It looks like I'm drawing 20 000 tons every other day, and sending them back to Port Arthur the next day. I am still exporting enough to keep Japan stocks stable (fuel and resource stocks are up, oil is stable, around 2 million tons), but it doesn"t seem to flow the same way.

I suspect other convoys (from Port Arthur or Shanghai) are causing some those variations in oil flow. I want to try stopping all oil convoys except those from Fusan. I will test this once I get that Taberfane affair under control...

I have been exporting oil from Singapore too, but most of my oil is staying there (I have about a million tons in Singapore).

And so the landing damage was high. My opponent is using an Australian division, probably reinforced with tanks. This might be a bit low to take the place, especially if they go one losing troops like this.

Portland is gone, and Louisville is probably in bad shape. On our side, Makigumo had to be scuttled, and Kumano is good for the yards. A good trade, I think.

As I suspected, the Allied carriers are not around, and my opponent is fighting with Naval 4E (we have no home rule against it…) for little effect. My CAP was composed of Oscars from Ambon, fighting at long range, and therefore not very efficient.

I am quite happy with this first day. One enemy cruiser (Portland) and one destroyer are reported sunk, and several transports and cargoes are probably done with. In exchange, I had to scuttle one destroyer. My surface group is low on ammo, and will retire, and KB is a few days away.

Air losses were 40 japanese to 30 allies, but I suspect his defenses will be low tomorrow, as all his planes have high service ratings.

In his return email, my opponent was a bit puzzled by the lack of surprise. He seems to believe I saw his troops sailing through Horn Island. I am not denying this, since it might encourage him to move the long way around Australia, the next time. But in fact, I was expecting something in this area, and had prepositioned cruisers and carriers after I saw him sending fuel to Darwin (you don’t do this to support defensive forces), and aggressively patrolling this area. I only regret that I sent my carriers around Koepang a week ago. Positioned as they were, just behind Ambon, they would have been in position to intervene yesterday, and it would have been a very bad day for the good guys.

So, what now? I have no surface forces to engage tomorrow. Cruisers and destroyers from Singapore and Surabaya are on their way. KB should arrive in two or three days. As a result, my only force is the carrier division which is now north of Taberfane. It has a light cover, and therefore is vulnerable to a raid by enemy surface forces, but so far, my opponent never tried to engage carriers with surface groups. I am taking the risk, and moving closer… I might live to regret it, but if we can launch a few raids tomorrow, I believe we can make this invasion very costly (and then have the KB mop up whatever is left).

I don’t think I can prevent the Allies from taking Taberfane, but once it falls, it will be very vulnerable, like Port Blair is now, and further advance will be difficult. Also, the heavy ship losses (after those in Ndeni, and in Terapo) might help my opponent keep his prudent stance. Delay is the word.

On a different level, I am somehow relieved to see the Allies move at last. I have noticed that long lulls make me complacent. I tend to play my turns to fast, without attention to all the details. Some pressure, and risk, should help a lot. Besides, I want to learn defending as Japan, and you need the Allies to cooperate, and take the offensive, to do so.

In Burma, another attack on Kalemyo achieved very little. Three divisions are now closing on Imphal. A bombardment of Cox Bazaar revealed that the base was abandoned. Only four units are left, and the base should fall tomorrow. I am cancelling the bombardment mission that was supposed to soften the base, but am keeping those ships around : yesterday, my search Betties detected the Hermes, 15 hexes from Rangoon (just out of Zero escort range). If my opponent tries to be smart, he might be in for a surprise…

I would agree, move in while you have an opportunity. He may send something at you but it looks like you've damaged or crippled most of his surface forces, so he may just be thinking of getting everything out of harms way tomorrow.

If any of your DDs from the previous day have god ammo left you might send 1-3 ship TFs right at him to both allay any surface forces heading toward you and to sneak in and get to whatever remaining ships/cripples hang around.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

No Allied transports unloaded in Taberfane today. Our attacks yesterday apparently cause some disruption. However, the 330 AV that managed to land yesterday achieved 2:1 odds on their first attempt, and reduce the forts to level one.

I would have thought the terrain would help… until I checked: the map says jungle, but the editor (or “1”) says “clear”. By the look of it, it seems Taberfane will fall tomorrow, and that a brigade, a tank regiment and some AT guns (all with experience over 60, the tank regiment at 78 exp), behind forts cannot resist half a reinforced division. I'm a bit puzzled by the efficiency of all this. There was no prior bombardment, the landings didn't go well, I have more than a token force, raw AV are balanced, yet...

Yesterday, the contested landings cost the Australians two squads and one gun (destroyed). Today, they lost one squad and one vehicle. Am I the only one finding this curious? I want to have a look at previous landings, but it seems that apart from coastal guns, all landings are unopposed so long the troops are prepared.

I thought enemy carriers weren’t around, I was wrong. Three carriers, in three task forces were detected today one hex east of Taberfane. My “mini KB” was four hexes away, and with only two fleet carriers and one light carrier, things might have turned very bad… except neither of us launched, despite detection and good weather. A strange turn, as I said…

As a result, there was very little action around Taberfane. KB is two days away, undetected. If the Allied carriers try to chase my guys, or just remain around, they might be in for a bad surprise.

In Burma, Cox Bazaar fell, Rangoon was resupplied, and Imphal was invaded by two divisions (two more will arrive in two days). Tomorrow, I am attacking Kalemyo and bombarding Imphal to see what I’m facing.

I am not having enough time for the game. Last week, we exchanged only three turns, and this week will probably not be better. As I mentioned before, programming user interface at work (and trying to make it "oh so simple", which means abominable code that ends up looking intuitive to the end users because you the coder made all the ugly choices for them, and rewrote the damn things again and again) makes one very impatient with AE. Gary Grigsby and the AE team wrote an impressive game, no doubt about it, but I'd be very happy to recommend their UI guy to my competitors...

Today was the first day of school, here. As an old, and divorced, and remarried, guy, I am blessed this year with one in grade one, anxious to learn her letters so that she can read Tinker Bell all by herself, another one (grade six) done with Harry Potter and Percy Jackson, and ready to jump into Jane Austen and the Bronte girls, yet another one who spent her summer learning latin and greek, and reading Howard Zinn's popular history, and Walden, because the history theme, this year, is "American society from Lincoln to Truman", studying for an exam she'll most probably flunk, and the oldest one who just discovered russian novelists and modern french writers (Perec). Fighting pixel wars is fun, but having kids is enlightening.

I realize I haven't posted music links in a while. Here is some Schubert, by one of the best cellists ever (Boccherini, Casals, Shafran, that's pretty much it, I'm afraid) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38QwLRYK8X0 This piece was written for a weird instrument that no longer exists (the arpegione, a strange mix between a cello and a guitar), and it has been transcripted for many modern instruments. So far, I played it with a flutist and an altist, here's a cellist...

December 26th 1942

Taberfane

Enemy task forces have retired. Carriers are between Taberfane and Darwin, surface ships and transports have retired to Eastern Australia. On the ground, the clear terrain is proving very costly. Liberators took a heavy toll today

I have no idea where my opponent stands, in term of supplies and fatigue. If he needs to rest tomorrow, we should shake disruption off, and might hold a few more days. I he doesn’t, well…

I am a bit lost as to what to do. I don’t think I can defend against such an attack, even after having surprised their ships unloading.

Burma

This is the bright side of the war. Rangoon, and lower Burma, are now supplied, and a convoy should reach Akyab (and Cox Bazaar) soon. Along the coast, the British are in full retreat towards Chittagong. I don’t know where they intend to make a stand: all the area between Chittagong and Calcutta is clear terrain, and I now have a level six airfield in Akyab, and a level four in Cox.

In Central Burma, an artillery probe against Imphal revealed a mixed lot, about 400 AV, probably between forts. I will have four divisions surrounding the city tomorrow. Fort levels are probably high, but Imphal is in trouble, and the main supply path to Kalemyo is now cut. I am resting tomorrow, and will attack again the day after.

In Kalemyo, a deliberate attack reduced forts to zero, and destroyed a dozen squads. Losses are high, but we are getting there.

I have good hopes of taking Kalemyo and Imphal relatively soon. Once this is done, we will march to cut the Ledo valley, which I think my opponent will evacuate. Capturing Ledo is important, as it helps securing my industrial bases in China.

Waxing strategic

Even though the game is moving slowly at the moment, the situation is becoming very interesting, as the consequences of Japan’s “China First” strategy are beginning to unfold.

By taking China out of the war in 1942, Japan can reinforce Burma, and threaten India in 1943. At this point, I don’t think India can provide auto-victory. Right now, VP are 43k vs 15k. Auto-victory in 43 means at least 20k more points, too much for India. But I don’t think the Allies can defend India with the troops they have there, and I doubt they can shrug it away.

And there you have my Burmese gambit: by threatening India, I want the US to commit there, and fight a land war over India, Burma, and China, which buys me the time to make a fighting retreat in the Pacific, and build a strong inner perimeter. Ideally, the war in India would absorb a large part of the US war effort in 1943, and delay operations in the Pacific and East Indies.

Can this happen? Right now, I suspect US reinforcements are on their way. This would explain why there were no moves against the Solomons or the Gilberts, and why the Brits are evacuating the Burmese border. Now, if I can conquer Bangladesh and use those large airfields, we’re in for a long a protracted campaign in India, and this part of the plan would be fine.

What about the Pacific? Allied carriers are there, obviously. I am not too afraid about Taberfane. moving from there into Ambon, and Kendari and Manado should be slow and costly. This is no good carrier country, and I have built quite a few bases. I don’t see the Allies going for Java or Sumatra either, and they can have the Solomons whenever they want (I’m about done with the evacuation anyway).

This leaves the Central Pacific (Gilberts, Marshalls, Marianas) but so far nothing ever seemed to happen there, and the Kuriles, which I am now building.

Industry

I forgot to mention I hit the two million HI mark at the beginning of December 42. This isn’t as costly as it seems: we’re producing 1 250 aircrafts per month, about 2 000 engines, have 50k armament and 30k vehicle points in store. In other words, it is all paid for by the merchant marine, where we hardly build anything (we have 70 yards, and 1500 points in the bank). I need to check my late war naval programs too, probably can save there as well: I had kept all the subs, I’m having misgivings, now that I’ve seen what 1942 DE can do. On the other hand, I might keep some of the late war fleet carriers, just in case.

Aircraft production can certainly be increased. I am getting pretty good fighters now. I have the Tojo IIb, and the A6M5, and the Nick 1c in January. Looking at the figures posted in other AAR, I noticed that most successful Japanese players spent a lot of planes (sometimes achieving rates like 1:2). On the contrary, players prudent with their aircrafts tend to die young. I believe this is because aircrafts are by far the cheapest weapons in this game. LCU cost a lot to build, and use, and fight. Ships dig holes in your HI budget (and they’re very constrained anyway). Aircrafts cost a couple dozens of HI each, use little supplies, and are very advantaged when used in large numbers (knowing that Allied production is limited). So my recommendation to fellow JFB would be more planes. There is probably a limit with pilots, but then, if you have enough planes, you can waste a few pilots, ad those who survive train fast…

Resource-wise, my fuel and oil convoys from Fusan seem to be succeeding. Home Island stocks are on the rise, and Malaysia oil seems to be flowing north. This is not the case with fuel, but I have huge stocks in China, and getting them to the Home Island is my first order of business.

As of today, I have 5.6 million tons of supplies, 8 million tons of fuel, 4 million tons of oil, and 16.7 million tons of resources. Japan has 1 million tons of supplies, 2.4 of fuel, 5.2 of resources and 1.8 of oil. This is not good, but it is improving.

I am happy with the current state of the economy. PDU off and a “no ship acceleration” rule help a lot, and I should have decent stocks by the time things get though. Of course, all this might be offset by the efficiency of strategic bombing. You can have as many HI as you want, if you don’t have factories… and what I’ve seen so far suggests that strategic bombing is extremely efficient in the game (just look at the point totals of end games…) But then, if the game hard codes “4E in range = game over”, so be it, I will have had my fun anyway.

Resource-wise, my fuel and oil convoys from Fusan seem to be succeeding. Home Island stocks are on the rise, and Malaysia oil seems to be flowing north. This is not the case with fuel, but I have huge stocks in China, and getting them to the Home Island is my first order of business.

Nice job with the economy Francois! I think I could have reached 1.5 million HI by the end of 42 in Scenario 1, but I decided to turn all armament and vehicle factories to full to get the stockpiles up. I am just banking under 3k HI daily now from my usual 5-6k.

One thing I wanted to mention. I began disbanding ships in port at Hong Kong and loading fuel from the port. Last turn there was 30k worth of fuel. In two turns my tankers are almost full at 30k and there is still 30k+ of fuel at Hong Kong. Fusan and Port Arthur levels remained roughly the same as last turn so the fuel is coming from somewhere other than these too bases. I didn't really look at the CRB, Saigon, Bangkok or Singapore totals yet, but this fuel has to be coming from Burma or Malaya. Saigon is now at 420k so it is definitely drawing more. I'm going to track things for awhile to see if I can figure out where it is coming from. I know there's spoilage with fuel moving overland, but maybe it's not as much as used to ship it in the first place. Just think of the fuel savings if it does draw overland.

Still very little time left for the game, it is probably a good thing, as I’m in one of those phases where I have lots of difficulty taking it seriously.

December 27th 1942

Taberfane falls

After difficult landings, and two consecutive days of attack, the half strength Australian Division in Taberfane attacked, and took the base. A preliminary bombing by B24-D from Darwin had kept my troop disruption high, clear terrain helps.

Since yesterday, my good leaders (+) became bad leaders (-), and experience is now a negative (all units are over 60 (the tank regiment is 79). KB, five hexes away, managed not to launch (I suspect it is because it is in a coastal hex, I’ll move it one hex away tomorrow and see).

I have to say I am a bit underwhelmed by the Taberfane affair. My opponent attacks a base defended by a brigade, and tank regiment and a RF gun unit, behind light forts, but forts. My troops have good morale (in the 90s) experience over 60 (80 for the tanks) decent leaders, and supplies (over 10k as the invasion began). I intercept the landings, sink part of the transports, get a carrier division in position, and have KB a few days away. And in fact, only half an infantry division and a tank regiment land, probably with a good level of disruption and disablement. Can things go any better for the Japanese?

Yet, three days is all it takes to conquer the place. I wonder what happens if the Allies commit a bit more somewhere, and I don’t get to attack on the first day, and I can’t wait until 44, when they have better squads and devices.

Little else happened today : four B17-E visited Rabaul at night, and were met by five Zeroes, and 10 Nicks, we lost three Zero and a Nick, and were fortunate that the flak shot one Buff down. 4E night combat at work, I’m afraid…

In Burma, I’m again waiting for the supplies in Imphal and Kalemyo. I can’t quite figure how supplies flow to combat areas. A few days ago, everything seemed very smooth, now, I have more supplies in the valley, but they don’t seem to move. Also, it seems easier to get supplies to flow to Kalemyo over the jungle, than in Akyab over the road. A convoy has reached Akyab, which should be supplied tomorrow (unless they flow back to Rangoon… at this point I am ready for anything).

What now? I have to say I don’t really care. The next turn was played in three minutes: rest a pair of squadron, dock a task force, and hit done… I probably have forgotten a lot of things, but does it really matter?

I mean, we’re in this game where you can besiege Chungking in May 1942, because your opponent forgot to lock the door in Changteh (thousands of miles away), where the same opponent can lose 80 Dauntlesses in one day, because they decided to fly unescorted into enemy carriers, morning AND afternoon. But it evens out, because the next day, you can have enemy carriers find themselves both detected, three hexes from each other, yet none launch a single attack (this happened to me twice already, out of five carrier encounters), and then you might get lucky detecting an invasion, sinking part of it, but it wouldn't change anything to the outcome (in fact, it proved more difficult for my opponent to capture Terapo, defended by a lone para unit, than to get Taberfane, where I had a brigade, and tanks, and guns).

I have to say all this gives a very strong sense of futility. In fact, I often feel that I spend a lot of time focusing on the economy and areas of the game where my decisions matter, to compensate for the fact that in other parts (combat notably), my actions are much less relevant.

And the more I play, the more the statistician in me is convinced that something is fundamentally flawed with the way the game model is implemented. More precisely, I believe that the way the game was made realistic, by adding layer upon layer of complexity, translates into some form of deterministic rigidity, and end up favoring extreme results governed by a few die rolls. In other words, adding more mechanisms to improve realism results in the opposite.

Let me try to explain (and if you’re not into stats, applied maths and that kind of things, you might as well just quit reading here).

Picture actions in a game as series of steps. Those steps are the basic blocks the game routines are made of. Think of them as lines of codes, or sub-phases in the sequence of play, or successive calculations in the model. The more complex the game, the more steps it involves. For instance, a very basic combat model would include one ratio calculation, a die roll, and a check against a result table. A complex model, like AE, might split this into several fire phases (barrage, counterbattery, offensive, defensive, exploitation, assault), introduce a variety of tests (morale, leadership) to control the sequence, add bonuses and modifiers, and repeat the process (or parts of it) over many units participating in the combat.

We tend to believe that the more steps a model has, the closer to reality it becomes (provided those steps describe reality, which I don’t dispute), and the more realistic its outcomes are. This is not true. In reality, complex system tend to include a lot of feedback, randomness and weak interactions, which cause many of the steps to “average out”, and effectively disappear. In practice, the net result of that “averaging process” is the bell curve, which we observe everywhere, and which tends to limit the effect of complex models (in short, all models, simple or complex, end in gaussian distributions, because randomness "kills" complexity, (in the real world, it is even worse, because stability kills outliers, but that's another story)).

Now, our calculations, and programs, and man-made models, tend to be much more deterministic. We do have die rolls, but less than in reality, and often with “flat” (ie uniform) distributions, whereas nature tends to be Gaussian. And as those deterministic models average less, they tend to vary more, and favor extremes more than random models. You can picture this as a “walk” the possible destinations after a number of steps. In a deterministic walk, distance between possible destinations vary as the number of steps, in a random walk, it varies as the square root : the more steps you have, the worse the difference.

I believe this is the problem with many complex models. As all man made tools, they are much more deterministic than reality, and therefore end up varying more than they should. An interesting side effect is that such deterministic but complex models tend to appear as more “random” to us, players. Since in a deterministic model, every step is strongly correlated to the previous one (this is pretty much the definition of determinism), the first steps you make (in a game the first die rolls and a number of parameters that are taken into account at the beginning of the routine) get an inordinate importance, because the model is complex (and the more complex it becomes, the more importance they get).

In AE, you see this a lot in after action discussions: one single fact explains a catastrophic defeat. You had no radar, and so 2:1 odds turned into 1:10 losses. You lack AT guns, and therefore a tank regiment can rout an infantry corps, and so on.

Right, just me rambling, I’m interested in feedback about this (on such days, I really miss Herwin).

I understand what you mean Francois, but, to be honest, i don't feel quite the same.

It's true that there are many die&rolls in the game, that can change the military outcome of an engagement. But, at the very same time, this game (and that's why i really like it) it's not just a sum of battles. The gran scheme is where the player really has the chance to change the final outcome of the war. It's not the tactical environement but the strategical one that really matters.

I Always try to imagine i'm the commander in chief. I give orders every day, but knowing that my subordinates won't Always do what i want them to do. Then there are the indipendent variables... an unlucky storm over your CVs...a mine... a bad day of your infantry unit... things that happens in war and that can change the course of battles.

These variables, to me, rapresent not just simple die&rolls but those things that can never be rapresented by cold numbers. You may have a unit with 90 morale...an elite unit.... but can't it have a bad day? Cannot the commander gets diarreah just when the smart enemy decides to attack. Cannnot a very good leader, one day, simply give the wrong order? Defend the hill 322....while the enemy decides to invest hill 399....and so you get a 1-2 instead of a 3-1....happens

I understand what you mean Francois, but, to be honest, i don't feel quite the same.

It's true that there are many die&rolls in the game, that can change the military outcome of an engagement. But, at the very same time, this game (and that's why i really like it) it's not just a sum of battles. The gran scheme is where the player really has the chance to change the final outcome of the war. It's not the tactical environement but the strategical one that really matters.

I Always try to imagine i'm the commander in chief. I give orders every day, but knowing that my subordinates won't Always do what i want them to do. Then there are the indipendent variables... an unlucky storm over your CVs...a mine... a bad day of your infantry unit... things that happens in war and that can change the course of battles.

These variables, to me, rapresent not just simple die&rolls but those things that can never be rapresented by cold numbers. You may have a unit with 90 morale...an elite unit.... but can't it have a bad day? Cannot the commander gets diarreah just when the smart enemy decides to attack. Cannnot a very good leader, one day, simply give the wrong order? Defend the hill 322....while the enemy decides to invest hill 399....and so you get a 1-2 instead of a 3-1....happens

I agree that there are lots of random factors and unintended consequences that the game should (and does) model through die rolls. This is fair and realistic. However, I believe the global effect of such randomness should be to average everything away. That's what we call Murphy's law (which is in fact the law of large numbers). In other words, unintended consequences should result in everything taking longer than one expects, and no victory being as easy as it looks on the paper.

And this is where I think the game system doesn't work: we should get a lot of average/indecisive results, but in fact, the game seems to favor extreme outcomes. Hence those air battles where 70 or 80 bombers are shot down, and just one or two fighters are lost, despite the ugly weather, and the difficulty to coordinate long range patrols. Hence those night raids which take out every ship in a harbor, moonlight or not, despite the CAP. Hence those tank regiments that not only holds a pair of chinese corps, but causes them huge damage, in just one day.

To be fair, I have the impression this happens less in naval combat, and not at all in the economy/logistics game (which seems to lack any random effects), but the land and air models seem a bit extreme to me (and I think that deep down, the problem is not the presence of die rolls, but the lack of them. or, rather, the fact that they don't work as die rolls should).

And the net result are those crazy paces that players sometimes wonder about, and those big successes and losses we have been accustomed to. Just for the sake of comparison, have a look at amphibious landings in 42 and 43. In late 1943, in Vella Lavella, it took almost two month for a division to stamp out a battalion sized unit (a nav guard, in game terms), without coast guns, tanks or all the stuff that might help in AE. In Treasury Island, it took two weeks for a reinforced brigade to eliminate a pair of companies. How long do you think it would take, in game? A day, perhaps a week if everything went incredibly wrong?

Munda, New Georgia, seems to be comparable, in size to Taberfane. The Allies had a 3:1 superiority there, yet it took two months in 1943, with better troops and equipment, and a Japanese empire which was already crumbling. At the very end of the war, Iwo Jima took 6 weeks to capture, with four of very heavy fighting. Do you think this could happen in AE?

And finally, if the game follows a somewhat historical path, ending in 45 with the Allies on the doorstep of Japan, do you think you would have Japanese units still fighting in the south pacific islands in late 44 and 45.

Of course, this cuts both ways. The same mechanism allowed me to besiege Chungking in May 42, and have a dozen crack division ready to march into India in January 43. It turns counter invasion as the only viable response to an amphibious landings (since your defenders will be eliminated in a few days). And it does cater to our player and AAR writer need, to have something to say about the war everyday. As such, it is not quite a game breaker, even though I suspect it partly explains the faster collapse of Japan you observe in many games.

ORIGINAL: fcharton Since yesterday, my good leaders (+) became bad leaders (-), and experience is now a negative (all units are over 60 (the tank regiment is 79). KB, five hexes away, managed not to launch (I suspect it is because it is in a coastal hex, I’ll move it one hex away tomorrow and see).

Somewhere there is a post about this ... need Alfred to find it though. Anyway, until then, my memory will have to suffice.

The indicators above are NOT aggregate indicators. It means that ONE leader (at least) failed his leadership roll. It could have been a base force or an engineering ... you don't know which leader. Same for exp ... one unit failed an experience roll. However, it could have been your main ID that failed. You can only tell that based upon the actual results. Here, it does look like your Armored unit failed at least one of those rolls. It can happen, EXP<>100, so there is a chance to fail that roll. Ditto for the leadership.

How? Hey, an OP gets taken out before it can give warning. An arty strike hits the command tent with the first salvo. There are any number of really real things that can and do happen. As GJ says, you have to know these things can go either way and not get too caught up in it. The reason why the 'rules' of thumb for attack (3:1, 4:1 if you can) are around is because of these issues. Sure, you can win 1:1. But why attack if you know you only have a 10% chance of success? 3:1 means you have a very high chance of success. The allies were in Taberfane in sufficient strength to take the position on average. The first day results should not change that opinion. Unless you can reinforce the posiiton, Taberfane was likely to fall. It did. That's all.

Francois, I know that you know all this. It is hard to remember it though, especially through a war that will last +3 years. Me, I have a 'sticky' on the top of my monitor: "Grigsby is against you!"

Over Rabaul, a night raid didn’t do much damage, but shot down three Nicks and a pair of Zeroes. I am reducing night CAP over my bases, and limiting it to A6M2, which I have in quantity. Having some CAP seems to make a difference, but having more planes in the air just means losing more to defensive fire.

I spent a little more time on the turn than yesterday, maybe twenty minutes, but I have to say I find it more and more difficult to get involved in the details and the bureaucratic fun. Somehow, I think I know enough of the system to manage, but that playing really well would mean an investment I am not ready to make (because I don’t see the benefits anymore). I am probably going to play fast, more regularly, to see what happens. If I learn a few things on the way, it will be all the better, if I don’t, that’s fine too.

Somehow, this reminds me of learning Chinese characters. Like AE, it takes a lot of patience, for very frustrating results, and you often get told by those who’ve been there before that it is because you don’t work hard enough, and that you need to suffer, but that you won’t succeed anyway because you’re a foreigner (in the case of AE, because you didn't read the good books, or because you didn't serve).

At the beginning, it is fun anyway. Because you learn a lot of common words (tactics in AE), that you can use very often. And so you can see the results. And you can compare with the total beginners that can't even write their name. But soon comes a time (after a couple hundred characters in chinese, a couple months of play in AE) when you’re supposed to memorize the character for Argon, or the axle hub of a chariot (yes there is a one for that), or the name of a tree you don’t even know in English, or one of those four character expressions you have no chance ever using (and should avoid anyway, because they sound so pedantic, and most of the time, you use them in the wrong context), and it all seems useless, and futile, and boring, and the teachers insistence on all the useless details begin to sound strange. So you drop the class, burn the books, bury the scholars, and decide that you won’t rote learn anymore, that you'll just use what you know, and see where it leads you, and that no, you don't need to be an expert to have fun. And then Chinese becomes fun, and, surprisingly, you actually learn a lot more this way…

Music, I think, works the other way around. It is tough at first, but it gets easier as you progress, because you realize technique is just a means, and not an end. Maybe the problem with AE is that it is only technique… (or perhaps it is just me who fails to realize the beautiful end behind it).

There is little to report. A squadron of fighters was based here today. The airfield is level one, so they won’t do much, but it suggest the transport I sank yesterday was unloading an engineer unit.

B24-D from Darwin raided the neighbouring hexes. Dobo is better terrain than Taberfane, and so the Liberators only disabled a few squads, but disruption and fatigue went up very fast. I am a bit helpless against such raids, as my closest base for LRCAP are too far away to provide meaningful support.

I’m afraid I am witnessing the beginning of the allied strategy… Build a base (Darwin) and base 4E there. Then bomb the nearest base where 4E can be based (Taberfane). Once it is reduced to dust, move troops in, and build the base, and so on (gee! sounds like fun!)

4E bombers seem to be the main weapon of the Allies. B25-C hardly to any damage in protective terrain, and are relatively easy to shoot down. 4E do a lot of damage regardless of terrain, are very precise at night, and do a very good shooting down fighters.

What can I do about it? In Taberfane, not much, I will try to build a few airfields to base a couple of Nicks, and shoot a few B24 down, but it won’t be very efficient. I can try to get ready for the next step, once B24 are based in Taberfane. With Japan, getting the airfield from level one to seven would take a lot of time, but I somehow suspect the Allies can do this in a few weeks.

Can I try to have him run out of 4E? In the long run, I can’t, by the end of 1944, hundreds of those are produced every month, and thousands arrive as reinforcements. But 1943 is another matter, especially as my opponent commits his 4E bombers a lot.

So far, here are the models the allies produced, and their fate:

LB-30: production has now ended, 24 planes were built, 17 are reported shot down (in Tracker) B-17D: production ended, 54 built, 37 lost B-17E: production ended, 207 built, 97 lost B-17F: production ended, 48 built, 34 lost B-24D: production ending in January 43, 161 built (or to be built), 45 shot down so far Liberator II (British): production ending in July 43, 29 built so far, 50 total, 6 shot down PB4Y-1 Liberator : production began this month, until June 44, about 30 produced so far, 335 to be built, none shot down so far.

So, out of about 540 4E bombers built so far, 240 were shot down, and my opponent has 300 (some of them restricted). He is using them a lot : today, I counted 90 4E bombers flying, over New Guinea, Taberfane and Cox Bazaar.

Right now, he is producing 34 planes per month, and will produce 52 in February, 56 from March to July, 61 in August, and 78 in September. This means 740 planes produced this year, but including those which arrive as reinforcements, the total is about 760, plus 300 in store now, call it a thousand.

So the maths are pretty simple: I need to shoot two 4E every day to prevent his pools from growing. At three I am depleting them by the end of the year, and any larger number will limit his capability to use 4E as he does now. We shot two B17-E down today.

Burma

In Kalemyo, another deliberate attack reduced the forts and achieved 1:1 odds. I am getting a good number of destroyed squads and devices, but we’re not there yet.

I was hoping the supplies to arrive in Imphal today, so that I could attack, but it went the other way around, and I need to wait again. The British are reinforcing Imphal.

Near Cox Bazaar, a bombardement probe revealed 650 AV, a mixture of defeated units and fresh reinforcements. They tried to attack today, and got 1:2 odds, which means disruption, fatigue and all that.

I am having a lot of difficulty keeping Burma supplied. More convoys will come from Singapore, but Manchukuo and Korea seem to be hoarding all the Continent supply. I will try to draw more from Rangoon, see if it works.