The strategic significance of Ethiopia within Africa and the broader Indian Ocean region cannot be under-stated. With approximately 99.5 million people residing within its borders, Ethiopia is one of the continent’s most populous countries. Covering more than 1.1 million square kilometres of land, it is also the 26th largest in terms of geographic area. Ethiopia has frequently been the main driver of regional integration processes, such as through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). However, given all of this, Ethiopia’s stated foreign and security policy is surprisingly, even alarmingly, unsophisticated.

The most recent strategic document from Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was issued in 2002, though a modest update was offered in 2009. A detailed reading of this document suggests that Ethiopian foreign policy was, and perhaps still is, eastward-oriented: sub-sections are devoted to relations with Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan, as well as relations with Arab states (particularly Egypt) and Israel. However, little attention is paid to countries to the west and south which could also be considered part of Ethiopia’s security neighbourhood, such as Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania. Of course, both the original strategy and its update pre-date South Sudan’s independence from Sudan and the impact subsequent waves of South Sudanese refugees have had on Ethiopia.

Furthermore, the strategy envisions a unilateral approach to securing Ethiopia’s national interests and emphasizes the importance of bilateral relations. Very little attention is paid to the virtues of multilateralism, despite Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s national capital, playing host to various African Union (AU) institutions. This may simply reflect Ethiopian strategic perception at the time; when the original document was issued, substantial numbers of Ethiopian troops were deployed to Somalia in an effort to combat the al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic Courts Union and tensions were simmering with Eritrea. As clashes over the Ethiopia-Eritrea border continue, with skirmishes taking place as recently as June 2016, and as Ethiopia expresses frustration with the lack of support for its efforts to stabilize Somalia, it is likely that this scepticism for multilateralism persists among Ethiopian policy-makers.

But the lack of a clear foreign and security policy since 2002 leaves little certainty over whether this is indeed the case or where Ethiopia truly sees itself in the world. Despite the myriad security threats with which the country is faced, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) also finds itself operating with largely outdated equipment. The ENDF’s ground forces predominantly use vehicles acquired from the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries during the 1980’s, following Ethiopia’s success in the Ogaden War against Somalia. In 2013, Ethiopia acquired newer Chinese-manufactured YW-534 armoured personnel carriers and WZ-523 infantry fighting vehicles, but much of Ethiopia’s mechanized infantry relies upon transport from Soviet BMP-1’s acquired almost 40 years ago.

Ethiopian troops, as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia, drive through Baidoa town with a WZ551 APC followed by an YW531 — Chinese-made — during a routine patrol (Photo: Abdi Dagane).

Some commentators have indicated that Ethiopia’s under-developed security policy may stem from a different conception of military power. Specifically, aside from roughly five years of Italian occupation in 1936-1941, Ethiopia is the only African country not to suffer under European colonialism. As such, history leaves Ethiopian policy-makers predisposed to regard the ENDF as a means of self-defence and nation-building, rather than a tool for power projection. This would explain the ENDF’s reliance upon mass infantry rather than a quality air force and “brown water” navy – mass infantry can be used as a means of addressing unemployment and countering any internal insurrections among Ethiopia’s diverse regions. For example, when mass protests broke out in August 2016 in Ethiopia’s Oromiya and Amhara regions, ENDF infantry were deployed and more than 90 protesters were killed.

Deficient domestic policies have ensured, in short, stunted development in Ethiopian foreign and security policy. So long as the ENDF is looked to as a means to quash internal dissent, Ethiopia will be unable to achieve its potential as a regional leader. Though an “upgrade” is long overdue both in terms of strategic orientation and defence equipment, it is likely Ethiopia will continue to be an inward-looking country.