How many Palestinians Refugees?
Inflating the numbers

Arabs,
encouraged by their leaders to leave, fled from what is now Israel between
April and December, 1948.1 The Arab leaders
promised them that they would soon be able to return following Israel's
destruction. In some cases the Jews, including Israel's first Prime Minister,
David Ben-Gurion, urged the Arabs to remain, promising that they would
not be harmed.2 Those who remained became
full and equal citizens of Israel, while those who chose to leave went
to neighboring Arab states. Instead of welcoming their Arab brothers, and
integrating them into the mainstream of their societies, the Arab states
kept them in squalid refugee camps and used these Palestinians refugees
as political pawns in their fight against Israel.

According to various estimates, the accurate
number of Arab refugees who left Israel in 1948 was somewhere between 430,000
and 650,000. * An oft-cited study that used official records of the League
of Nations' mandate and Arab census figures[37] determined that there were
539,000 ** Arab refugees in May 1948.[38]

* The Statistical Abstract of Palestine
in 1944-45 set the figure for the total Arab population living in the Jewish-settled
territories of Palestine at 570,800.

** Walter Pinner began with a total
of 696,000 Arabs living within the Armistice lines in 1948, from which
he subtracted the 140,000-157,000 who remained in their homes when Israel
became independent. Pinner further asserts that no more than 430,000
were "genuine refugees" in need of relief. See the population study in
Chapter 12 of "From Time Immemorial" for new information and a detailed
breakdown.

There was heated controversy over the exact
number of Arab refugees who left Israel. In October 1948, there were already
three "official" sets of figures: The United Nations had two, the higher
of which estimated the number would "shortly increase to 500,000";[40]
the Arab League's official figures reported a total already greater by
almost 150,000 than the higher of the UN figures. The swollen Arab League
figures could never be verified because the Arabs refused to allow official
censuses to be completed among the refugees." Observers have deduced that
the Arab purpose was to seek greater world attention through an exaggerated
population figure and thereby induce the UN to put heavier pressures upon
Israel, to force "repatriation."

But the propaganda use of erroneous, inflated,
or otherwise manipulated population statistics was not a recent phenomenon
restricted to the Arab refugee camps. As subsequent chapters reveal, this
practice has long played a critical, underestimated role in shaping the
perceptions and the resolution---or the lack of resolution---of the Arab-Israeli
conflict.[39]

The former Director of Field Operations
for the United Nations DisasterRelief Project reported in July 1949 that

It is believed that some local
[Arab] welfare cases are included in the refugee figures.[42]

When the United Nations Relief and Work Agency
(UNRWA) was established as a
singular, special unit to deal with Arab refugees, practically its first
undertaking, in May 1950, was an attempted refugee census to separate the
genuinely desperate from the "fradulent claimants." After a year's time
and a $300,000 expenditure, UNRWA reported that "it is still not possible
to give an absolute figure of the true number of refugees as understood
by the working definition of the word" [43] For the purpose of that
census, the definition of "refugee" was "a person normally resident in
Palestine who had lost his home and his livelihood as a result of the hostilities
and who is in need." A reason given by UNRWA for falsified numbers was
that the refugees "eagerly report births and ... reluctantly report deaths."[44]

One of the first official reports to question
the accuracy of the refugee figures stated that there could be "no true
refugee population" figures because the agency director "did not consider
it practicable to ask the operating agencies to impose any kind of eligibility
test and ... had no observers of his own for this purpose.'"[45] The report
stated it was having difficulty excluding "ordinarily nomadic Bedouins
and ... unemployed or indigent local residents" from genuine refugees,
and

it cannot be doubted that in many
cases individuals who could not qualify as being bona fide refugees are
in fact on the relief rolls.

One of the camp workers in Lebanon who was
questioned about the accuracy of the refugee count answered,

We try to count them, but they
are coming and going all the time; or we count them in Western clothes,
then they return in aba and kafflyah and we count the same ones again.[46]

UNRWA's relief rolls from the beginning were
inflated by more than a hundred thousand,* including those who could not
qualify as refugees from Israel even under the newer, unprecedentedly broad
eligibility criterion for the refugee relief rolls. UNRWA now altered its
definition of "refugees" to include those people who had lived in "Palestine"
a minimum of only two years preceding the 1948 conflict." In addition,
the evidence of fraud in the count, which accumulated over the years, was
given no cognizance toward reducing the UN estimates. They continued to
surge.

* UNRWA Director Howard Kennedy on November
1, 1950, reported to the United Nation Ad Hoc Political Committee that
"a large group of indigent people totalling over 100,000 ... not be called
refugees, but ... have lost their means of livelihood because of the war
and post-war conditions ... The Agency felt their need was even more acute
than that of the refugees who were fed and housed." In November 1950, Kennedy
referred to "the 600,000 [Arab] refugees," although he had reported in
May 1950 that UNRWA had distributed 860,000 rations, citing the hundreds
of thousands of "hungry Arabs" who were not bona fide refugees but who
claimed need.[47]

According to the Lebanese journal Al-Hayat,
in 1959 "Of the 120,000 refugees who entered Lebanon, not more than 15,000
are still in camps."[49] A substantial de facto resettlement of Arab Palestinian
refugees had actually taken place in Lebanon by 1959. Later that year AI-Hayat
wrote that "the refugees' inclination-in spite of the noisy chorus all
about them-is toward immediate integration."[50] The 1951-1952 UNRWA report
itself had determined that "two-thirds of the refugees live elsewhere than
in camps," and that "more fortunate refugees are not even on rations, but
live rather comfortably ... and work at good jobs."[51] The recognition
in the United Nations and in Arab journals that the refugee camps had largely
been emptied, through absorption and resettlement ' raised appropriate
subjects for inquiry with regard to correcting the number of persons receiving
rations and seeking "repatriation."

After their 1960 investigation, Senators
Gale McGee and Albert Gore[52] reported the surfeit of

Ration cards [which] have become
chattel for sale, for rent or bargain by any Jordanian, whether refugee
or not, needy or wealthy. These cards are used... almost as negotiable
instruments.... many have acquired large numbers of ration cards ... rented
or bartered to others who unjustifiably receive ... rations, much of which
are now in the black market.

At the same time, the UNRWA Director admitted
that the Jordan ration lists alone "are believed to include 150,000 ineligibles
and many persons who have died."[53] Officials told the two senators of
twenty percent to thirty percent inflation of the relief rolls,[54] and
an American representative on the UNRWA Advisory Board added, "I have actually
seen merchants openly weighing and buying
supplies from recipients of distribution centers."*[55]

* According to the Mideast Mirror, a
weekly news review published by Arab News Agency of Cairo: "There are refugees
who hold as many as 500 ration cards, 499 of them belonging to refugees
long dead.... There are dealers in UNRWA food and clothing and ration cards
to the highest bidder.... 'Refugee capitaliste is what UNRWA calls them."
July 23, 1955.

In 1961, UNRWA Agency Director John Davis
acknowledged that the United Nations refugee counts included "other victims
of the conflict of 1948 " and that it would be wrong to deny them aid merely
because they weren't legaliy qualified.[56] However, they were persons
neglected by their own Arab govern- ments, and they should not have been
counted among the Arab refugees from Israel; by continuing to be unfaithful
to its own mandate, UNRWA contributed to further distortion of an already
misrepresented and misunderstood refugee situation. In fact, what were
originally intended as humanitarian endeavors to aid needy Arab resident
populations by the Red Cross and others would unwittingly contribute to
the use of hapless humans for an entire political and military campaign.
[57]

37. Jordanian National Law,
Official Gazette, No. 1171, February 16, 1954, p. 105, Article 3(3). Between
1948 and 1967, 200,000 to 300,000 Arabs moved from the West Bank to the
"East Bank," according to Eliyahu Kanovsky, in Jordan, People and Politics
in the Middle East, Michael Curtis, ed. (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction
Books, 1971), p. 111.

38. In 1967, an additional
250,000 Arab refugees from the Israel-occupied territories were reported;
added to the number who left in 1948, they brought the total to 789,000
Arab refugees.

39.A more current example
of the traditional swelling of numbers was described by New York Times
correspondent David Shipler during the 1982 Israeli routing of the PLO
foundation in Lebanon. On July 14, Shipler wrote, "It is clear to anyone
who has traveled in southern Lebanon ... that the original figures ...
reported by correspondents quoting Beirut representatives of the Red Cross
during the first week of the war, were extreme exaggerations."

40. This estimate was made
by officers of the Disaster Relief Organization and confirmed by statistical
calculation of the potential number of refugees who might have left after
the second truce. Gabbay, Political Study, p. 166.

41. Marguerite Cartwright,
"Plain Speech on the Arab Refugee Problem," in Land Reborn, American Christian
Palestine Committee, November-December 1958; according to a United Nations
Interim Report, 1951, A/145/Rev. 1, p. 17: ". . . the figures for Lebanon
(128,000) are confused, due to the fact that many Lebanese nationals ...
claimed status as refugees"; UNRWA was "forbidden" by Jordan Syria, and
Gaza from counting newborn children among refugees, according to Falastin,
Jordanian daily, January 25, 1956; see Joseph Schectman, The Refugee in
the World (New York: A.S. Barnes & Co., 1963), pp. 201-207.

42. W. de St. Aubin, Director
of Field Operations for the UN Disaster Relief Project, "Peace and Refugees
in the Middle East," The Middle East Journal, vol. iii, no. 3. July 1949.

43. Report of the Director,
Special Report of Director and Advisory Commission, UNRWA to Sixth Session,
General Assembly, UN Document A/1905; compare, for example, with OAU (Organization
of African Unity) definition at 1969 Convention: "Any person compelled
to leave his place of habitual residence Quoted in "Africa and Refugees,"
by Neville Rubin, African Affairs, July 1974, Journal of Royal African
Society, University of London.

44. UNRWA, Annual Report
of the Director, July 1, 1951, to June 30, 1952, General Assembly, Seventh
Session, Supp. No. 13 W217 1). See also October 1950, UNRWA Interim Report
of Director, A/ 145 1: "there is reason to believe that births are always
registered for ration purposes, but deaths are often, if not usually, concealed
so that the family may continue to collect rations for the deceased." Cited
by Schechtman, Refugee in the World, p. 206.

52.Cable by McGee and Gore
from Amman, Jordan, to President Eisenhower, Secretary of State Christian
Herter, and the United Nations, October 1959, while traveling in the Mideast
for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Appropriations Committee.

53.Dr. John H. Davis, October
1959, cited in Schechtman, Refugee in the World, pp. 207-208.

55. Dr. Harry Howard, from
the United States Congressional Record, April 20, 1960.

56.UNRWA, Annual Report of
the Director. Under the auspices of the Arab Information Center in New
York, by 1970 Davis was reporting the figures he himself had proved erroneous
and grossly inflated, as the bona fide refugee count. "Why Are There Still
Arab Refugees?", The Arab World, Arab Information Center, New York, December
1969-January 1970, p. 3.

57.See New York Times, May
15, 1949; Life magazine, September 29, 1958; Timemagazine, December 2, 1957.

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