Sunday, September 26, 2010

OtB Twins Notes

According to
the PiPress’s John
Shipley, Carl Pavano reviewed video footage of his outing on Saturday –
trying to make sense of the five-run, fifth inning outburst he allowed to the
Tigers which included a trifecta of home runs. “I look at some of the sequences I used against different
guys, and maybe I was a little strong. Physically I felt great. I feel strong.
I felt good coming out of the pen.” The Twins starter told reporters. Clearly,
after allowing home runs on 0-2 and 1-2 counts to Alex Aviles and Don Kelly
(both on fastballs), Pavano may want to reconsider throw either his slider (6.2
runs above average) or changeup (10.4 runs above average) which have been very
effective for the veteran.

In the top of
the fifth on Saturday, Jason Repko was drilled by an Eddie Bonine 0-2 88-mile
per hour fastball that caught the right fielder in the top hand while holding
the bat. According to MLB.com’s Kelly
Theiser, the x-rays came back negative for any structural damage. Repko was
lifted for Ben Revere. (Revere would finish the night 0-for-3, failing to drive
J.J. Hardy home from scoring position twice.) Repko, having cooled off
considerably himself since his hot start following his call-up, has hit just
.169/.272/.169 since August 11th and has not had an extra base hit
in those 81 plate appearances. No matter, Repko has provided an upgrade
defensively over Jason Kubel in the outfield. WhileKubel has save -2 runs in 609 innings in
right, Repko has been +2 in is 218 defensive innings according to John Dewan’s
Plus/Minus accounting system.

Speaking of
defense, it is plays
like this one by Orlando Hudson, making a diving catch on a seemingly
uncatchable ball, that reaffirms why the Twins second baseman is currently the
Plus/Minus leader among second baseman (+23).

While his
defensive has been spectacular and steady, Hudson has had his offensive numbers
plummet dramatically over the second-half of the season, particularly in the month
of September. After coming into the month with an above-average .358
on-base percentage, that number has dropped to .337 after failing to reach base
in seven plate appearances on Saturday. Opponents have attacked Hudson
consistently in September, throwing him pitches in the zone regularly in
September (52%). Unlike last month where the switch-hitting Hudson produced a
.358 BABIP, the balls that the second baseman is putting into play just aren’t
finding turf this month (.233 BABIP). Equally responsible for the decline in
OBP is Hudson’s inability to draw walks. Much like Span earlier in the season,
Hudson’s has had a sudden disappearance in free passes – a byproduct of
opponents attacking the strike zone more this month (52% zone rate). His .187
OBP for the month of September is only better than the Angels Alberto Callaspo
and Peter Bourjos.

According to
Inside Edge, Danny Valencia’s .398 average against left-handed pitchers is
currently fourth best in baseball. Likewise, his .211 well-hit average on pitches
up in the zone is third-best in baseball.

Even with a
back injury, one that may be worse than initial thought, Jim Thome’s .784
slugging percentage against fastballs is the best in baseball. This is a
significant improvement over his .457 slugging from a year ago.

FoxSport’s
Jon Morosi wrote two columns on topics that may influence the Twins’
postseason. The first being the Morneau
discussion, indicating that GM Bill Smith isn’t nearly as dismissive of a
return from the first baseman as the field manager is. The second outlines the
concerns surrounding Francisco
Liriano has the team’s number one starter in the ALDS. Certainly Liriano
has been dominant at times yet he has also flashed moments of being
overwhelmed.Still, while Morosi
considered it a “question mark”, his ESPN.com counterpart, Tim
Kurkjian, proclaimed it a “fitting choice for a pitcher who has had a
terrific season.”

At the
Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe took
to the task of assigning all major league teams a Simpson character. The Twins
got labeled Waylon Smithers. Not sure how I feel about this but his explanation
was on the mark.

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About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."