General Mills just announced higher prices for breakfast cereals, Yoplait yogurt and Nature Valley granola bars. Last month, it raised prices on flour, pizza rolls and Green Giant vegetables.

Hormel Foods recently raised the price of Spam and Jennie-O turkey, with more increases to come. Caribou Coffee said it will follow other coffee sellers in raising prices. And Target’s chief executive said last week, “We will need to raise prices to offset higher costs.”

After years of quiet on the inflation front, a six-month spike in the prices of grain, meat, dairy, energy and oil is squeezing through the U.S. food system. The wave hasn’t hit consumers full-on, but it’s coming.

“The fact is, all commodities are going up,” said Edward Usset, a grain-marketing specialist at the University of Minnesota. “Fiber, fuel, metals, just across the board, everything is going up.”

On Friday, corn soared another 25 cents a bushel — the daily maximum — meaning that corn prices have virtually doubled in six months. Wheat prices are up 32 percent in that time. Hog prices, up 30 percent. Milk prices, up 21 percent.

The Consumer Price Index hints at the changing tide. In 2010 food inflation was calm, inching up just 1.5 percent. Then in January, food prices rose 0.5 percent for the month, and “all six major grocery-store food groups posted increases,” the U.S. government reported.

At local restaurants like Keys Cafe & Bakery, higher prices are starting to surface here and there — in the prices of tomatoes, green peppers or celery. So far, the family-owned cafes have absorbed most of the costs by shopping for bargains and tinkering with recipes, rather than reprinting menus.

“What we try to do is adjust things in the kitchen, so instead of two tomatoes, you use one tomato,” said Jean Hunn-Collyard, one of Keys’ family owners. Still, holding the line has its limits.

“If it’s something that continues and (rising prices) isn’t just going to be a one-month or two-month thing, we have to look at it,” she said.

Analysts cite a dozen reasons that raw commodity prices have risen so far, so fast.

The economic recovery is lifting demand. Bad weather has zapped harvests. Unrest in oil-producing nations is making markets jittery.

Speculators are pouring money into hot commodities. And ethanol continues to gobble up corn.

Now, those forces are combining in explosive ways, especially since a wave of revolution roils the oil-rich Middle East.

Corn is mostly an animal feed — or it was, until corn-based ethanol came into the picture.

Now it’s an energy source, too. Whenever crude oil prices skyrocket, so do corn prices. The other grains follow along.

“If they (commodity traders) want to take oil another 10 percent, 20 percent, 30 percent higher, you can bet that will spill over into corn, because 40 percent of this crop is being used to make fuel, not food or feed,” said Usset, the U’s grain-marketing specialist.

That link is making grain prices especially volatile — and worrisome this winter.

While higher food prices make U.S. shoppers unhappy, they spell disaster in the world’s poorest nations. Already, soaring food prices are blamed for some of the rioting in Egypt and elsewhere.

Last week, former President Bill Clinton urged that the goal of energy independence be balanced with food needs. “We don’t want to do it at the expense of food riots,” Clinton said.

The last time commodity prices ran wild, back in late 2007 and early 2008, the story didn’t have a happy ending. Prices soared, then collapsed — wiping out some businesses and helping throw the U.S. economy into a severe recession.

Nobody’s sure how this round will end.

When Target officials were asked about inflation in 2011, they punted.

“I do resist putting a concrete number on it,” Doug Scovanner, Target’s chief financial officer, told analysts last week. “There are too many variables right now for us to be able to make that prediction without misleading you.”

As you comment, please be respectful of other commenters and other viewpoints. Our goal with article comments is to provide a space for civil, informative and constructive conversations. We reserve the right to remove any comment we deem to be defamatory, rude, insulting to others, hateful, off-topic or reckless to the community. See our full terms of use here.

More in News

Michael J. Galvin, considered a “legend” in St. Paul for his decades of community service, died at age 87 on Thursday. He had suffered a stroke the week before. Galvin’s daughter, Nora, said her father loved his family and was passionate about the city of St. Paul. He was well-spoken and gave thoughtful advice, Nora Galvin said, recalling how he...

Eight years ago, it was a school on the brink of closure. This year, Carver Elementary won the Minnesota’s Future Award from the Minnesota Business Partnership — again. Carver is the only two-time winner of the award, winning it last year as well. The school will receive $50,000 and recognition at the Business Partnership’s annual dinner on Tuesday. “The three...

Mendota Heights is taking another look at how traffic from the nearby Vikings development will affect the city’s portion of Dodd Road, a two-lane, tree-lined street that runs through residential neighborhoods down to its southern border with Eagan. The city council has given city staff the OK to hire KLJ Engineering for $28,850 to conduct a comprehensive engineering study of...

Minnesota’s gray wolf population appears to have grown by 25 percent thanks to more deer, the Department of Natural Resources said Monday. The DNR’s 2016-2017 population survey estimated that Minnesota had about 500 packs and 2,856 wolves at midwinter after remaining relatively steady in the previous four surveys. The margin of error is plus or minus 500 wolves. The 2015-2016...

The former leader of an Inver Grove Heights charter school claims religious discrimination and violations of Minnesota’s whistleblower protections led to his ouster in June. Dan Hurley filed a lawsuit last week in Dakota County District Court that alleges leaders of Discovery Charter School fired him after he voiced concern the school could be violating the constitutional separation between church...

The waitress’ blank stare says it all. Outside the Midwest, people don’t understand the question “What kind of pop do you have?” It has been nearly two years since we left Minnesota, and I still cannot get it in my head that most of the country says “soda.” By now, I’ve grown used to the jokes about my accent —...