Northern Lights: Public policy and the geography of political attitudes in Britain today

Synopsis

Politics and policy are intimately connected. Understanding what different voters want, and why, is pretty complicated. From day to day politicians and policy makers use conventionally understood terms which reflect their understanding of the electorate.

We think we know what we mean when we talk about parties competing for the “centre ground”, or what the “aspirational working class” is, or the “north-south divide”. But do we? Ideas about the electorate reflect different generations of academic research - including some long defunct ideas. Society is always changing, and with it, so does academic research and polling evidence. This report is an attempt to update our maps.

How should we understand geographical differences and the urban/rural divide? Is there really a north-south divide, and if so why? What are different voters’ policy priorities? How do they think the parties should change?

To answer these questions this project brings together existing opinion research, and uses an extensive polling exercise, regression analysis and qualitative research to try and improve our understanding of public policy, and the geography of political attitudes in Britain today.

Special thanks go to Andrew Whyte/LongExposures.co.uk for the report's excellent cover image.

Testimonials

"First of all I’d say congratulations to Neil and to Policy Exchange for what I think is an absolutely fascinating report. I spent ... four or five hours going through some of it yesterday and I felt I’d only just scratched the surface of what is in that report, and I think it’ll be a landmark report actually for a long time to come, people will study it and study it."

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Ahead of the local elections, Policy Exchange will be publishing a major piece of research examining the attitudes of voters across Britain towards political leaders, their perception of class, the communities they live in and the policies that affect their everyday lives.

Writing on Conservative troubles in the North in the Telegraph, James Kirkup and Christopher Hope extensively cite findings from Policy Exchange's Northern Lights report. The report showed that - against received political wisdom - the Conservatives actually do quite well in the North, but only in rural seats. The real problem the Conservatives face is in towns and cities throughout the country.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph about UKIP’s plans to target Labour seats in the north, James Kirkup refers to Policy Exchange's 2012 Northern Lights report, which highlighted how the Conservative Party have a problem attracting voters in northern cities (holding just 16% of northern urban seats), rather than the north as a whole, with 71% of the broadly rural seats in the north and midlands being held by the Conservatives.

Following George Osborne's proposals to boost Northern cities, findings from Policy Exchange's Northern Lights report that the Conservatives have a specific electoral problem with Northern cities (rather than a simple North/South divide) are cited by Harry Phibbs in ConservativeHome.

Daily Telegraph assistant editor Jeremy Warner cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that people living in private rented or social housing are significantly less likely to vote Conservative. This contrasts with those who own their homes outright, or with a mortgage, who are more likely to vote Conservative.

A leader in The New Statesman cites former Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton's formation of a new campaign group and quotes previous findings by Policy Exchange report Northern Lights highlighting the regional imbalances in Conservative and Labour support.

A number of Policy Exchange’s recent policy proposals were heavily referenced in the Daily Telegraph to mark the launch of former Policy Exchange deputy director David Skelton’s new campaign group, Renewal, which aims to broaden the appeal of the Conservative Party. Skelton suggests the Tories could win future majorities by focusing on ‘cost of living’ policies such as abolishing the renewable energy target to reduce household gas and electricity bills and building new homes by engaging directly with local people.

A Guardian leader column praises the launch by former Policy Exchange deputy director David Skelton of campaign group Renewal and credits “the influential Policy Exchange” as playing a key role from a policy formulation perspective.

A number of Policy Exchange’s recent policy proposals were heavily referenced in The Sun to mark the launch of former deputy director David Skelton’s new campaign group, Renewal, which aims to broaden the appeal of the Conservative Party. Writing in The Sun, Skelton suggests the Tories could win future majorities by focusing on ‘cost of living’ policies such as abolishing the renewable energy target to reduce household gas and electricity bills and building new homes by engaging directly with local people.

Writing in The Times on the lack of respect for MPs among voters, columnist Alice Thomson refers to findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights which found that becoming a politician is increasingly becoming a job for the well off as others can’t afford to stand as a candidate. The report showed that more than 90% of MPs are now graduates coming from business professions, and most risk their own money to become politicians.

In a piece exploring the legacy of Margaret Thatcher and the challenges facing the Conservative Party, ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman cites findings from our report Northern Lights showing the Conservative Party must address cost of living issues if it wishes to appeal more to voters in the North.

Writing in The Financial Times, Janan Ganesh cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights, in a piece exploring ways to tackle the North-South divide. The article also cites former Policy Exchange Director Neil O’Brien’s work on encouraging economic growth in the North, including introducing successful academy chains to improve education and skills.

The Spectator covers the departure of David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, from Policy Exchange to set up a campaign group to broaden the appeal of the Conservative Party. The article notes David's recent work on why the Tories need to do more to appeal to voters in the North and in urban areas.

Writing on ConservativeHome, Paul Goodman cites findings from Policy Exchange’s report Northern Lights that the public have what would be seen as right wing attitudes to issues such as benefits and crime, in an article on the upcoming budget.

Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, David Skelton, is quoted by BBC News arguing that the Conservative Party needs to do more to appeal to blue-collar voters in the North and the Midlands. David said the Conservatives need to shake off their reputation as the party of the rich and address key issues including reducing the cost of living and tackling unemployment.

David Skelton, Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, appeared on BBC Radio 4's PM programme speaking about why the Conservative Party needs to do more to appeal to Northern voters. David said the Tories must focus on blue-collar issues such as reducing the cost of living, job creation, and tackling unemployment.

The Daily Telegraph's Chris Hope covers Policy Exchange's Director Neil O'Brien's appointment as a Special Adviser to George Osborne, citing Neil's repeated calls for the Conservatives to do more to appeal to urban voters in the North.

ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie writes praising Chancellor George Osborne's hiring of Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien's, citing Neil's Northern background and the focus of his previous work as being beneficial to help the country out of its current problems.

In an piece discussing Policy Exchange's Director Neil O'Brien's appointment as a Special Adviser to George Osborne, The Spectator cites Policy Exchange report Northern Lights as one of the most important pieces of work on the challenges facing the Conservative party.

The Sunday Express cites Policy Exchange's Director of Communications, Nick Faith, urging the government to focus on reducing the cost of living in the upcoming Autumn Statement. Nick said the government should consider increasing fuel duty and abandoning the harmful EU Renewable Energy Directive.

The Financial Times cites findings from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights on the attitudes of voters across Britain, in an article discussing how strategist Lynton Crosby will help improve the Conservative party’s prospects of winning in the 2015 general election.

Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton appears on the Daily Politics setting out what he thinks the Conservatives can do to regain support in the North. David argues that Conservatives will not get a hearing without apologising for the social problems created by previous policies and need to advocate a "compelling blue-collar narrative".

ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie cites Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights, which argues that Conservatives must appeal to voters in the North if they are to win a majority in the elections. The report shows that Northerners do support key Tory values on crime, immigration, tax and human rights.

The Economist cites findings from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights which show that Conservatives need to focus on voters in the North and the Midlands if they are to secure a win in the elections.

ConservativeHome's Paul Goodman examines in detail polling results from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights in a Telegraph article arguing that blue-collar workers in the North and Midlands hold the key to a Conservative victory at the next election.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien draws six lessons from the Olympic Games, including that Britain actually can successfully conduct big projects, should focus on 'victory through specialisation' and embrace elitism and meritocracy.

Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton argues that Ed Miliband was right to speak at the Durham Miner’s Gala. PX report Northern Lights highlights the fact that many working class people feel no politician truly represents them and their families and that it is important for leaders to engage with communities as much as possible.

The Guardian's Northerner blog cites the finding from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that a majority of people in the North are unethusiastic about HS2. Director Neil O'Brien is quoted pointing out that this is understandable, as the first tranche of construction on HS2 will only go between London and Birmingham - failing to benefit those in the North at all.

The Daily Telegraph cites polling findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights which revealed that cutting the price of petrol was, after cutting energy bills, the most important way people felt politicians could improve life for their families.

Westminster City Councillor Andrew Smith praises Policy Exchange report Northern Lights on ConservativeHome, citing its research into the geographical and social variations in political and policy attitudes among voters.

David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, argues that the recent selection of Jon Cruddas as head of Labour’s policy review could be a masterstroke for Ed Miliband if he’s able to translate his impressive, but often abstract, thinking into concrete policy. He shows how Cruddas's views are supported by polling findings from our report Northern Lights.

Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton argues that the findings of report Northern Lights dictate that if the Conservatives ever wish to form a government on their own they will have to consolidate their modernisation programme as well as focusing on issues that affect everyday people such as the cost of petrol and energy.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien uses ONS data to show that the public/private sector job divide isn’t simply split by North and South but is actually spread more evenly than people assume. He argues that the biggest challenge for the government is to reduce the overall levels of local unemployment, especially outside the South East.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien shows that polling results from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights back the beliefs of Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Work & Pensions Liam Byrne that voters are angry about welfare dependency and that political parties need to take a stronger line on welfarism.

Shipley MP Philip Davies is quoted by the Keighley News citing polling findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the public want the government to be tougher on crime, welfare dependency and immigration.

David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, is interviewed by the Northern Echo. He calls for implementation of recommendations on planning policy from report Cities for Growth in Consett, his home town, a system of local pay bargaining and makes the argument from Northern Lights that the Conservatives need to appeal to aspirational working-class voters in the North if they wish to win another election.

BBC Newsnight reports findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the most important things the British public feels the government could do to help them would be reducing energy bills and reducing fuel duty.

Deputy Director David Skelton appears on BBC Radio Leeds to discuss the recent local elections. Commenting on the low turnout, David points to findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that 81% of people do not believe that politicians understand their concerns.

Sunday Times columnist Martin Ivens references findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that voters are more interested in politicians dealing with cost of living issues, crime and immigration than constitutional affairs like House of Lords reform.

politics.co.uk quote Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton explaining why the campaign in favour of directly elected city mayors failed so badly. They also cite figures from report Northern Lights highlighting the anti-political mood the public is currently in.

David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, argues that the North is poorly understood by the centralised government, bureaucracy and media in London, suggesting that elected mayors would allow the North to provide a strong voice for the North and end the reliance on Whitehall and Westminster for providing jobs.

Policy Exchange's Director of Communications Nick Faith cites findings from report Northern Lights which show that those who do not own their own home are far less likely to vote Conservative than those who do. He argues that coupled with the current housing crisis and fewer and fewer people able to afford to get on the property ladder, this could cause electoral problems for the Tories.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien talks to The Spectator's James Forsyth on their podcast The View from 22 about our report Northern Lights. Neil highlights the problems for the Conservatives in the urban North and Labour in the rural South and the increasing divide between the public and politicians.

The Guardian's Northerner blog extensively covers findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the urban-rural divide between the Conservatives and Labour than the North-South divide and that there is great sympathy in the North for policies that are seen as inherently Conservative.

David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, highlights how findings from report Northern Lights show a growing disconnect between the public and politicians and highlights the implications of the report's findings for the Labour party.

The BBC's North East political editor extensively covers Policy Exchange report Northern Lights, highlighting many of the report's findings such as the fact that Margaret Thatcher is the second most popular PM in the North (after Tony Blair) and that there is a strong desire for more Northern and working class MPs.

Telegraph columnist Robert Colvile refers to the finding from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that there is increasingly an anti-politics attitude among voters, to the extent that voters refuse to believe politicians have kept their promises even when they have demonstrably done so.

Times columnist Rachel Sylvester cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the rural-urban split is at least as significant a voting indicator as the north-south divide and that the Conservatives are seen as a party for the rich.

Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson blogs on Policy Exchange's new report on the public's political and policy views - Northern Lights - highlighting the 10 findings he considers to be the most important. He cites Director Neil O'Brien's observation that Tories do so badly in cities that only two Tory MPs have premiership football teams in their constituency.

Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton appears on BBC Radio Manchester to discuss the findings of report Northern Lights which examined the political and policy views of British voters. One of the revelations he makes is that Britain has become much more liberal towards the idea of gay marriage, with the North-East and North-West regions being the most in favour.

ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie provides a detailed summary of findings from Policy Exchange's latest report Northern Lights. The report examined the political and policy preferences of British voters to examine to what extent class and geography play have an effect.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien appears to the Today programme to discuss the findings of latest report Northern Lights. Neil reveals that the main concern by far for British citizens is the cost of living and that their perceptions of their local area are most affected by the local unemployment rate.

The Independent covers Policy Exchange's latest report Northern Lights, highlighting the finding that the cost of living is by far the most pressing concern to voters. Director Neil O'Brien is quoted pointing out that neither of the two main political parties are successfully appealing to ordinary people.

The Yorkshire Post references findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the cost of living is the main concern of voters, rather than whatever the latest issue is in the Westminster bubble. Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien is quoted stressing the need to address these issues and pointing out that the main political parties are singularly failing to appeal to ordinary working people.

The Northern Echo cites a range of findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights on where Labour and the Conservatives are strongest around the country along with a comparison of Northern-Southern policy views. Director Neil O'Brien is quoted highlighting the fact that the Tories don't have a problem in the North in general so much as they have a problem in Northern cities specifically.

Findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that Tony Blair is a more popular Labour leader than Ed Miliband and that Margaret Thatcher is more popular in the North than any current party leader are referenced by Guido Fawkes in his Daily Star on Sunday column.

Neil O'Brien, Policy Exchange's Director, cites findings from Northern Lights on the main concerns of British voters and gives a series of policy recommendations - from workfare to energy policy reform - that will resonate most with the British people.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien sets out findings from polling figures in our latest report Northern Lights and argues that the key message is there is a complete disconnect between the public and politicians and there is a danger of something nasty filling the vacuum if the major parties fail to reconnect with British voters.

Is there a north-south divide political divide? A major study into public attitudes by Policy Exchange explores this issue and finds that social differences in England today are as much about town and country as north and south. The poll finds that the Conservative lead among people in the rural south is 42% but Labour’s lead among people in northern cities is 43%. In the rural north the Conservative lead is 10%, while Labour lead in London.

Related Blogs

Following an event at the Conservative Party Conference 2014 on how the Conservatives can win more urban seats, Policy Exchange Director of Communications Nick Faith reflects on some of the key recommendations the event threw up.

Nick Faith, Policy Exchange's Director of Communications, sets out how the Conservatives a coalition of voters that will allow them to win elections in the long-term. Nick makes the case from our report Northern Lights that the Conservatives must reach out to the working classes by selecting more northern and working class candidates and focus on building up local networks in marginal seats.

Guy Newey, Head of Environment & Energy at Policy Exchange, argues that public concern with energy bills means energy and climate policy will be a crucial battleground in the 2015 general election. The party that can come up with a convincing answer on gas and electricity bills, as well as wider cost of living concerns, will be in a strong position to win the next election.

Nick Faith, Director of Communications at Policy Exchange, sets out the Catch 22 situation that UKIP has put the Conservatives in. UKIP is likely to prevent the Conservatives from winning some key marginals, but tacking to the right to try and head this off in the North West and Midlands will harm the party in the South West. Nick argues that David Cameron's best response would simply be to forget the electoral connotations and focus on leading the country instead.

David Skelton, Policy Exchange's outgoing Deputy Director, sets out his plan to set up a new group to broaden the appeal of the Conservative Party. David highlights his plans to reach out to voters in the North and in urban areas, noting the influence of Policy Exchange’s key report Northern Lights on the challenges facing all political parties.

David Skelton, Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, sets out what the Conservative Party needs to do to stand a chance of winning a majority at the next election. David cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights exploring the North-South political divide, arguing that the Tories need to appeal to voters in the North, Midlands and urban areas, as well as to ethnic minorities and ordinary working people.

Neil O'Brien, Policy Exchange's Director, discusses the failure to close the North/South divide, arguing that both Westminster politicians and Northern council leaders fail to understand the nature of the problems the North faces. He makes recommendations which would help boost the Northern economy, including welcoming successful academy chains, local pay bargaining and planning reform.

Nick Faith, Head of Communications at Policy Exchange, sets out three main priorities that Lynton Crosby needs to address when he joins the Conservative party's 2015 election campaign. Nick cites findings from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights which found that the Conservative party lacks support in the North and in urban areas.

David Skelton, Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, shows how drastic the decline of the Conservative party has been in the North of England, with the party lacking representation even at a council level in some cities like Liverpool. He cites polling results from Policy Exchange's Northern Lights report which show that the Conservatives must focus on cost of living issues and job creation if they wish to win such areas back.

Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien draws six lessons from the Olympic Games, including that Britain actually can successfully conduct big projects, should focus on 'victory through specialisation' and embrace elitism and meritocracy.