High pressure through tonight. Low pressure system brings a bag
of wintry mixed pcpn late overnight tonight into Saturday
morning.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

As of 245 PM Friday...
A high pressure will continue in control of the weather
conditions through at least midnight.
A low pressure system approaches from the west and brings a
warm front during the pre dawn hours to spread mostly rain.
However, temperatures at the surface could drop to sub freezing
levels tonight. The timing of the onset of pcpn over subfreezing
surfaces will produce FZRA and ice accumulations of a tenth of
an inch across the north, ranging to a glace up to a tenth of an
inch across the south.
A winter weather advisory has been expanded further south to
include counties along and north of a line from Kanawha in WV,
northwest to Lawrence OH for late tonight into Saturday
morning.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...
***Light freezing rain possible Saturday Morning***
Warm air advection with continued over-running aloft takes
place Saturday morning as warm front lifts north. Brief period
of freezing rain will overspread the area but then should
quickly come to an end from south the north through the mid
morning hours as chances for precipitation will increase into
mid afternoon. Models have precip over the area during the
12-15Z timeframe Saturday and there is continued possibility for
a light ice accumulation as atmospheric profiles show that
precip will fall as -fzra at onset.
SE Ohio and Northern WV should have the best potential to see
any impacts from freezing rain Saturday morning, as surface
temps should hold below freezing there the longest.
This system will exit our region on Saturday night and high
pressure will build in behind it. Will see drying of the
atmospheric column Sunday night as sfc high pressure builds in.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...
Both euro and gfs models in fair agreement, showing the
northern and southern stream shortwaves remaining out of phase
across the eastern US at the beginning of next week. Better
phasing occurs later in the week leading to cyclogenesis across
the middle atlantic states. A push of colder polar airmass will
make its way into the area from midweek onwards with a decent
chance for mountain snows, with rain at the lower levels.
Generally stayed with the model blends through the period as
there is good agreement of the forecast evolution at least
through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...
High pressure will continue in control this afternoon and
evening under mostly clear skies and northwest flow. Clouds will
increase in coverage ahead of warm front. Periods of rain and
freezing rain will be possible Saturday morning to affect PKB,
CKB and EKN. Confidence is low to call FZRA over the southern
sites. The timing of the onset of pcpn over subfreezing
temperatures will determine the extend of the FZRA.
Therefore, expect VFR conditions into tonight. Conditions will
gradually deteriorate to MVFR as the pcpn begins from 09Z
tonight across the south. Then, moderate rain could bring
periods of IFR conditions across the south, and FZRA/IP will
pose a threat for IFR/LIFR conditions across the northern sites.
MVFR/IFR conditions expected later Saturday afternoon and night
as a strong upper shortwave passes through across WV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of clouds and precipitation tonight
may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...