Namibia: Geingob's next four years could make or break him

Swapo’s
candidate, the charismatic 73-year-old Hage Geingob, won last Friday’s presidential
election in Namibia by a landslide. But his victory could be short-lived if he
fails to deliver.

Geingob
garnered over 80% of the vote, higher than the figure ever achieved by the
current president Hifikepunye Pohamba, and the nation’s founding father, Sam
Nujoma.

According to
the Electoral Commission of Namibia, Geingob won 87% of the total vote.
By
comparison, McHenry Venaani of DTA of Namibia received just 5% and Hidipo
Hamutenya of Rally for Democracy and Progress 3%.

Geingob’s
popularity is also seen to have spilled over into the National Assembly poll, where
Swapo garnered 80% of the vote, with the DTA receiving 4.1% and the RDP 3.51%.

This means
that Swapo will take 77 of the seats in the 96-seat lower house – a massive 23-seat
increase.

PopularityGeingob’s
popularity can be attributed to the fact he is the country’s first prime
minister and has served in the role for 12 years. He also
played a major role in Namibia’s democratic transition after independence
in 1990.

“Geingob was
part of the team that got Swapo recognised by the United Nations. He also set
up the National Land Reform conference after independence,” said Phanuel Kaapama, the
head of the politics department at the University of Namibia.

Geingob
served as minister of trade and industry in 2008, becoming prime minister
in 2012.

As a member
of the minority Damara/Nama ethnic group, he was able to cash in the support of
Namibia’s many ethnic minorities. However, his long service to Swapo has also
made him popular among the majority Aawambo.

Geingob is
also well supported in urban areas and in the business community, having gained
the reputation of being an able technocrat and businessman.

These are
skills that will be tested over the issue of land, which sparked a rebellion
within the Swapo youth league before the elections.

A faction of
the league, led by the charismatic Job Amupanda, has given Windhoek city
council until July next year to respond to 14 000 applications for plots in the
city.

Kaapama said that
how Geingob handles this issue next year will be of paramount importance to
local people, many of whom voted in the hope of land.

Internal strifeThe
ruling party has suffered from internal divisions since its 2007 congress, at
which Geingob was chosen as Swapo vice-president, making him eligible for the presidency.

The move was
not well received with some members, who supported the minister of immigration,
Ivula Ithana, and others.

The Namibian newspaper quoted
Geingob earlier this year as complaining that he did not enjoy sufficient support in
Swapo and that he had been harassed by party members who were plotting to
prevent him from becoming party’s vice-president.

It reported that the police were investigating a case of harassment involving
Swapo members.

Defusing the hostility
within the party is another of the challenges Geingob must confront.

In terms of
the constitution, the president can appoint eight MPs directly to Parliament. To
heal the rifts in Swapo and consolidate his power base, he will have to choose
his candidates carefully.

Kaapama said if he left out such key figures as former transport minister Helmut Angula, home affairs minister Ithana and youth minister Jerry Ekandjo, he could
jeopardise his chances of being elected to the party’s presidency at Swapo’s
2017 congress, when Pohamba is set to retire.

“The right appointments
could strengthen his power in the party and the country,” said Kaapama.

Complicating
the issue will be his desire to bring more representatives of minority groups
into parliament.

How he deals
with Swapo’s youth wing will also shape his political future, as the party’s
younger members tended to support other candidates for the vice-presidency.

The ruling
party’s youthful parliamentary caucus may pose a problem for him, as these MPs will
have higher expectations of his delivery performance.

“The next
four years will either make or break Geingob – he will need to tread carefully,”
said Kaapama. “But having had tougher assignments in the past, he should be
able to handle the challenges wisely.”

Regional votesAnother
political commentator, Hoze Riruako, said Geingob had clawed back many votes in
regions that were normally opposition strongholds because of the dominance of
certain ethnic minorities.

One example
was the Kunene region in the north-west of Namibia, which is dominated by the
Damara ethnicity and a bastion of United Democratic Front support.

Riruako,
managing director of Management and Leadership Expert, pointed out
that he had received over 90% of votes in the country’s O regions, Oshana,
Omusati, Ohangwena and Oshikoto, Swapo’s traditional stronghold in the north of
the country.

“The
land was the basis of our struggle and to it still is,” he said. “If is not
dealt with, it could unsettle the population.”

A
further challenge for Geingob was the fact that after 24 years of independence
the gap between Namibia’s haves and have-nots continues to grow.