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Drew Silva

Draft Strategy

Early February Mockin'

Yep, it's not even the middle of February and we're running analysis of a fantasy baseball mock draft. I'll spare you the "we're so dedicated" jargon (because I'm hoping it's assumed) and get right to the good stuff:

I invited a group of 10 industry professionals to participate in a mock 5x5 league last weekend with the intention of getting a better feel for current trends. It's a slow-moving style draft hosted by the excellent CouchManagers.com and it has been an absolute pleasure thus far. We've just entered Round 8 and we are going all the way up to 18. Below I'll recap the first six rounds.

The draft is the most crucial part of any fantasy season and there's no better way to get prepared than studying the way your peers select players. Keep up with ADP trends, follow Rotoworld's player news page religiously, but also participate in a mock draft or two. A mock draft is like a warm-up for your fantasy brain. Like taking the PSAT, but a whole lot more fun and without the chicks.

Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols will (and should) be selected at the top of nearly every fantasy draft this spring. There's really no reason to expound on why because we all know what they bring to the table: power, and, most importantly, consistency. Beyond those two it gets a bit murkier.

I went with Alex Rodriguez third overall, but not before considering many other options. A-Rod is as strong a fantasy player as anyone when he's at his best, but he turns 35 this season and his home run totals have been all over the map since he blasted a career-high 57 in 2002. He's stealing fewer bases and he's still somewhat of an injury risk. That said, let's not forget that the man is buoyed by a star-studded lineup and is almost a sure bet for 120-plus RBI if he plays a full season.

This is the first draft I've participated in this winter where Tim Lincecum was not selected in the first round. Instead, players like Miguel Cabrera and Troy Tulowitzki made the cut. It just goes to show you that everyone has a different strategy and a different idea of what works. Lincecum is close to a sure bet for 250-plus strikeouts and superb ERA and WHIP numbers, but some owners tend to trust hitters more than pitchers.

Tulowitzki didn't hit 35 home runs last year, nor did he top 100 RBI, but he mans a position where value is scarce. Oh, and he had a 1.043 OPS after the All-Star break. A lot of bright folks are expecting that trend of excellence to continue once the 2010 season officially kicks off. It's tough to argue against most first-round picks, no matter who you're drafting with.

Best Value

Matt Kemp isn't likely to fall to the 12th overall pick in many drafts this year. He established himself as a true fantasy stud last season with a .297 batting average, 26 home runs, 101 RBI, 34 stolen bases and 97 runs scored. The 25-year-old is being selected at an average draft position (ADP) of 7 in most mocks and was a steal at No. 12.

Here's where things get interesting. Joe Mauer and Lincecum seem like great picks and should go as high, if not higher, in most regular drafts this season. Mauer had an other-worldly .365/.444/.587 batting line in 2009 and he smashed 28 home runs in just 138 games played. It's almost impossible to find consistent fantasy production at the catcher's position and the kid from St. Paul has it all.

The selection of Matt Holliday at 14th overall, on the other hand, scares me. He raked to the tune of a 1.023 OPS in his two-plus months with the Cardinals last season, but can we really expect him to keep that kind of pace? Keep in mind he's a .318 career hitter and has averaged just 29 home runs over his first five professional seasons. Heck, he only hit 24 dingers all of last year. That kind of production, especially in an outfielder, can be often be found deep into drafts.

Pablo Sandoval receiving a second-round selection also bothers me. I like the guy's nickname, and I think it's great that he shed a ton of excess weight this offseason, but I'm not sure passing on Mark Reynolds was a bright idea. Allow me to work up a side-by-side comparison:

A little simple math will tell you that "Kung Fu Panda" does not belong in the second round, or at least not before Reynolds.

Yep, it's not even the middle of February and we're running analysis of a fantasy baseball mock draft. I'll spare you the "we're so dedicated" jargon (because I'm hoping it's assumed) and get right to the good stuff:

I invited a group of 10 industry professionals to participate in a mock 5x5 league last weekend with the intention of getting a better feel for current trends. It's a slow-moving style draft hosted by the excellent CouchManagers.com and it has been an absolute pleasure thus far. We've just entered Round 8 and we are going all the way up to 18. Below I'll recap the first six rounds.

The draft is the most crucial part of any fantasy season and there's no better way to get prepared than studying the way your peers select players. Keep up with ADP trends, follow Rotoworld's player news page religiously, but also participate in a mock draft or two. A mock draft is like a warm-up for your fantasy brain. Like taking the PSAT, but a whole lot more fun and without the chicks.

Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols will (and should) be selected at the top of nearly every fantasy draft this spring. There's really no reason to expound on why because we all know what they bring to the table: power, and, most importantly, consistency. Beyond those two it gets a bit murkier.

I went with Alex Rodriguez third overall, but not before considering many other options. A-Rod is as strong a fantasy player as anyone when he's at his best, but he turns 35 this season and his home run totals have been all over the map since he blasted a career-high 57 in 2002. He's stealing fewer bases and he's still somewhat of an injury risk. That said, let's not forget that the man is buoyed by a star-studded lineup and is almost a sure bet for 120-plus RBI if he plays a full season.

This is the first draft I've participated in this winter where Tim Lincecum was not selected in the first round. Instead, players like Miguel Cabrera and Troy Tulowitzki made the cut. It just goes to show you that everyone has a different strategy and a different idea of what works. Lincecum is close to a sure bet for 250-plus strikeouts and superb ERA and WHIP numbers, but some owners tend to trust hitters more than pitchers.

Tulowitzki didn't hit 35 home runs last year, nor did he top 100 RBI, but he mans a position where value is scarce. Oh, and he had a 1.043 OPS after the All-Star break. A lot of bright folks are expecting that trend of excellence to continue once the 2010 season officially kicks off. It's tough to argue against most first-round picks, no matter who you're drafting with.

Best Value

Matt Kemp isn't likely to fall to the 12th overall pick in many drafts this year. He established himself as a true fantasy stud last season with a .297 batting average, 26 home runs, 101 RBI, 34 stolen bases and 97 runs scored. The 25-year-old is being selected at an average draft position (ADP) of 7 in most mocks and was a steal at No. 12.

Here's where things get interesting. Joe Mauer and Lincecum seem like great picks and should go as high, if not higher, in most regular drafts this season. Mauer had an other-worldly .365/.444/.587 batting line in 2009 and he smashed 28 home runs in just 138 games played. It's almost impossible to find consistent fantasy production at the catcher's position and the kid from St. Paul has it all.

The selection of Matt Holliday at 14th overall, on the other hand, scares me. He raked to the tune of a 1.023 OPS in his two-plus months with the Cardinals last season, but can we really expect him to keep that kind of pace? Keep in mind he's a .318 career hitter and has averaged just 29 home runs over his first five professional seasons. Heck, he only hit 24 dingers all of last year. That kind of production, especially in an outfielder, can be often be found deep into drafts.

Pablo Sandoval receiving a second-round selection also bothers me. I like the guy's nickname, and I think it's great that he shed a ton of excess weight this offseason, but I'm not sure passing on Mark Reynolds was a bright idea. Allow me to work up a side-by-side comparison:

A little simple math will tell you that "Kung Fu Panda" does not belong in the second round, or at least not before Reynolds.

Best Value

Beyond Lincecum at No. 13, I think my own selection of Justin Upton 22nd overall was the best pick of the round. Call me egotistical. You can even call me stupid. But Upton, 22, hit .300/.366/.532 last season with 26 home runs, 86 RBI and 20 stolen bases in just 138 games. I expect him to play at least 160 contests this season and top all of those numbers significantly. Draft him confidently in the second round of any draft and throw me a bone when you're riding high in June.

Adrian Gonzalez gets a lot of love from baseball scribes because he's an underpaid and often underrated slugger posting big numbers in the town in which he was born. But there are real concerns about whether or not he can keep up the pace while playing 81 games in spacious Petco Park. He didn't hit for power at home last season and that's not likely to change in 2010 unless the Padres move their walls several feet inward. Gonzalez compiled a 1.045 OPS in away ballparks last year. In order to post a stat line similar to 2009's he will need to continue mashing at a heroic pace on the road. There's a good chance that won't happen, and that's why I don't like seeing him selected 25th overall.

Robinson Cano at No. 30 and Dustin Pedroia at No. 36 are also quite curious selections. The 27-year-old Cano is simply not a consistent hitter, having posted batting averages ranging from .271 to .342 since his arrival in the big leagues back in 2005. He also provides little power, historically, with only one season of 20-plus home runs to his name.

Pedroia is more of a sure bet in the batting average department, but the 5-foot-9 two-bagger may never top 25 home runs and his RBI numbers have never been spectacular, even in such a stellar lineup. Dan Uggla gets knocked for his streakiness at the plate and his poor defense, and rightly so. But he has smacked 30 or more homers and collected close to 90 RBI in each of the last three seasons. This is fantasy baseball, folks, where you must rely on raw numbers to win leagues.

Best Value

Jimmy Rollins looks great to me in the middle of the third round. He's being selected in the second in most mock drafts (ADP: 20) this winter and he posts the kind of all-around numbers that any fantasy owner can fall in love with. Even with a dreadful first half last year, Rollins finished with 100 runs scored, 21 dingers, 77 RBI and 31 stolen bases. A bounce-back season could mean really big things.

If you're not yet asking "Where the heck is Jason Bay?," you're not following this column closely enough and you don't have a firm grasp on ADP. Bay, who hit .267/.384/.537 last season with 36 home runs and 119 RBI, fell to the late fifth round of this particular mock draft.

Are the Mets poisonous? Does the grass at Citi Field emit mustard gas? Or perhaps we simply had too many New Yorkers in this draft. Whatever the case may be, Bay shouldn't fall that far. Sure, he's moving to a more spacious ballpark and away from a lineup that put up a third-ranked 872-run total last season. But Bay is only 31 years of age and he remains one of the top power-hitting outfielders in the game. He's being taken 24th overall in most mocks. Here, he fell to 56th. Don't let it happen again.

You'll have to e-mail the other guys or find them on Twitter if you want answers as to why Bay dropped so far. Personally, I felt I had to go with a high-strikeout pitcher in Round 3 and a base-stealing, run-scoring type of player in Round 4. It's just the way my team was shaping up and I'm happy that Curtis Granderson was around. He should flourish in Yankee Stadium and may even top the career-high 122 runs that he tallied in 2007.

Best Value

Pitching went early and often in this mock, but somehow CC Sabathia slipped to the fourth round and 38th overall. He is being taken at an ADP of 30 in most mocks, and for good reason. The big lefty tallied 19 wins and 197 strikeouts last season while compiling an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.15. Recent history suggests his strikeout numbers should climb even higher with another year in pinstripes. And the wins, of course, will always be there.

Want an example of why it is wise to wait on a first baseman? Look no further than D.J. Short's selection of Adam Dunn at the tail end of the fifth round (60th overall). Dunn's power numbers are comparable to almost any top-ranked slugger and yet he's being overlooked in scores of mock drafts this winter. Dunn hit 38 home runs last season and collected 105 RBI, all the while piecing together a career-high .267 batting average. Strikeouts aren't a factor in most fantasy leagues, so don't be scared off by 'em.

The selection of Chone Figgins is a little more puzzling. Figgins is a nice player and the Mariners were wise to snatch him up at a bargain rate this offseason, but he brings little to the table other than stolen base numbers. His career-high home run total is nine, and he produced that way back in 2006. Figgins' ADP currently sits at 79. He was taken 59th in this draft.

Best Value

I'm not sure why, but people often forget the kind of year Jon Lester had in 2009. It's almost as if the baseball world accepted his 2008 as a peak season and assumed he would slowly regress. He didn't. And he won't. Lester, 26, collected 15 wins and fanned 225 batters in just 203 1/3 innings last year for a 9.69 K/9. The lefty isn't just a cancer survivor with a nice backstory. He is a full-blown star in the making and he's the ace of Boston's already excellent pitching staff.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Carlos Beltran has been a perennial second- or third-round pick since his breakout 2004 season, but a late-winter knee surgery and the controversy surrounding it has him slipping fast in 2010 mock drafts. Some owners are even choosing to avoid Beltran altogether because selecting him requires placing trust in the Mets' medical team, a group that has botched quite a few recovery time predictions in the recent past. The Mets are projecting a late-April return, but who's to say they don't have this one wrong as well?

I like Dan Wade, the fella who selected Shin-Soo Choo. I think he has a great grasp on all things baseball and fantasy-related. But I can't fathom why Dan would draft Choo 63rd overall, before outfielders like Manny Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Carlos Lee, and even Bobby Abreu. Choo posted a respectable .300/.394/.489 batting line last season with 20 home runs, 86 RBI and 21 stolen bases. The South Korean native might top all of those numbers this year, or he might not. The bottom line is many outfielders are capable of producing those kind of stats and a whole bunch of them were still on the board. It was a classic reach.

Best Value

B.J. Upton, at least in my opinion, was the strongest pick of Round 6. Maybe I'm just a fan of the last name "Upton," though it doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. Justin's older brother batted a measly .241/.313/.373 last season and he might not improve on that line this year. But he steals 40-plus bases per season and he hit 24 dingers as recently as 2007. Most stolen-base hounds don't bring any sort of power potential to the table. You might as well as grab a guy that does.