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2006 in Context of Previous Mid-term Elections

These data and analysis focus on four key measures that Gallup
has tracked over the years in midterm elections. This history
provides a framework for forecasting the results of this
year’s election. The four measures are: congressional generic
ballot, presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and
satisfaction with the way things are going in the country.

Democratic Lead in the Congressional
Generic Ballot(Percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent for
Republican candidate)
Among Registered Voters

Year

Election
outcome

Net change in Dem. seats

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep. (1)

Sep. (2)

Sep. (3)

Oct. (1)

Oct. (2)

Oct. (3)

Final Poll

1974

59-41 D

+43

26

32

28

25

28

26

1978

55-46 D

-11

26

24

22

24

19

24

24

24

25

17

1982

56-44 D

+26

11

20

16

17

14

18

17

18

1986

--

+5

10

0

13

1

8

1990

54-46 D

+9

4

5

2

7

5

10

7

1994

54-47 R

-53

-1

6

-5

0

-4

-3

0

-3

3

0

1998

50-50 R

+5

11

1

5

4

4

13

4

9

1

3

9

7

2002

52-48 R

-3

-3

-4

0

7

2

2

6

8

3

5

5

9

5

2006

--

--

6

11

16

13

12

10

6

12

9

23

15

11

Democratic Lead in the Congressional
Generic Ballot(Percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent for
Republican candidate)
Among Likely Voters

Slightly more Americans agree (52%) than disagree (45%) that the federal government is responsible for making sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. This balance of views is similar to last year.

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $98 in November, up from $93 in October. The latest figure is the highest average recorded for the month of November since Gallup began tracking consumer spending in 2008.