Will there be chaos or calm after the Strom?

By Adam Zagorin and Douglas Waller/Washington

Last November, NANCY THURMOND, wife of South Carolina Senator
STROM THURMOND, walked into the office of the state's Democratic
Governor, Jim Hodges, and played him a videocassette. On it, to
Hodges' amazement, the aging Republican announced that he was
resigning from the Senate and that he wanted his wife to fill
his seat. Was this the last hurrah for Thurmond, 98, a Senator
since 1954? Apparently not. Several days later, Thurmond issued
a statement claiming he had no intention of stepping down before
his term ends in January 2003. The Thurmonds (who have been
separated since 1991) won't comment on the bizarre episode. But
it raises anew the issue of Thurmond's health--and what his
retirement might mean for a Senate now divided 50-50 between
Democrats and Republicans.

"He's not doing well," says a senior G.O.P. aide. Thurmond has
been hospitalized five times in the past nine months, once after
losing consciousness. If he resigns and Hodges appoints a
Democrat to serve out his term, Democrats will take the Senate
with a 51-to-49 majority, placing President Bush's legislative
agenda in peril.

Republicans are already making private contingency plans for
that possibility. Though Thurmond shows up for practically every
floor vote, he is too frail to handle most other duties. He has
given up his Armed Services Committee chairmanship, stopped
gaveling the Senate into session each morning and returned to
South Carolina only three times in the past year. At hearings,
he speaks only from note cards and on occasion has appeared
disoriented on the Senate floor. "He still knows what he's
voting for," says a Democratic Senator. "But if I were a South
Carolinian, I would want more from my Senator."

The state's voters still love Thurmond, though, and will be
watching closely to see who replaces him. Not necessarily a
Democrat, say some of the state party's officials, who are irked
at the national party for what they see as a lack of support and
attention since Bush won the state by 16 percentage points. "It
might be very popular if Hodges named a Republican to fill
Thurmond's seat," a top South Carolina Democratic Party
strategist tells Time. And if Senate Democratic leader Tom
Daschle doesn't like it? "Well, he can go fly a kite."