In its bulletin issued 5 am on Tuesday, December 15, state weather bureau PAGASA said Typhoon Nona was last spotted 40 kilometers north northeast of Romblon, Romblon. It is moving west at 15 kilometers per hour (kph).

Nona now has maximum winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph.

Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to intense within the 250-kilometer diameter of the typhoon.

Storm warning signals are still raised in parts of Luzon and Visayas, but fewer areas are affected.

Signal #3

Oriental Mindoro

Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island

Marinduque

Romblon

Signal #2:

Burias Island

southern Quezon

Batangas

Calamian Group of Islands

Signal #1:

Metro Manila

Masbate including Ticao Island

Camarines Sur

Camarines Norte

Albay

Cavite

Laguna

Bulacan

Rizal

northern Palawan

Bataan

rest of Quezon

Aklan

Capiz

Antique

Iloilo

PAGASA warned of flash floods, landslides, and storm surges up to 3 meters high in areas under signals #2 and #3.

Powerful Typhoon Nona made a pair of landfalls in the Philippines Monday after undergoing a last-minute spurt of intensification. The tropical cyclone, known by the name Melor internationally, is forecast to tear a swath from east to west through the heart of the island nation through Wednesday, bringing flooding from rainfall and storm surge in addition to the wind threat.

As of 4 p.m. local time Monday, the Philippine national weather agency PAGASA said the center of Typhoon Nona was near Bulusan in the Sorsogon province. The national government’s disaster management agency said that was Nona’s second landfall, following an initial 11 a.m. landfall on Batag Island near the northern tip of Northern Samar province. Since the Philippines are made up of many islands, the center will move back over water and could make an additional one or more landfalls as it moves west.

The eye of Typhoon Nona became much better defined as it approached the northern coast of the island of Samar in the eastern Philippines late Monday morning local time. Satellite-based intensity estimates from the University of Wisconsin-Madison suggested Nona’s maximum wind speeds rapidly increased from approximately 100 mph (155 kph) at 3 a.m. Monday to about 135 mph (220 kph) by 10:20 a.m.

Strong winds now blowing in Catarman, Northern Samar, where signal no. 3 is currently hoisted due to Typhoon #‎NonaPH

(The Philippines are eight hours ahead of Greenwich Mean Time and 12 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time in the U.S.)

Bulletins from various government agencies have struggled to keep up with the evolution of the typhoon, which underwent an earlier spate of intensification early Sunday. That prompted the U.S. military’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to upgrade Nona (Melor) from a tropical storm to a Category 4 equivalent typhoon within an 18-hour span, but objective satellite estimates from UW-Madison suggested Melor probably topped out in the Category 2 range before its eye disappeared and its core appeared to become disorganized late Sunday.

The compact eye of the typhoon re-emerged in satellite imagery Monday morning less than three hours before touching the northeastern part of the island of Samar shortly after 10 a.m. local time.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reacted by raising its estimate of the typhoon’s winds from 90 mph (145 kph) to 110 mph (180 kph) between 2100 GMT Sunday and 0000 GMT Monday. JMA said top winds remained at 110 mph (180 kph) at 0900 GMT Monday which is close to the time that Nona was making landfall. (Japan uses a more conservative wind-measuring method than the U.S., taking an average over 10 minutes instead of 1 minute.)

Meanwhile, JTWC dropped Nona (Melor) to a Category 3 equivalent at 1800 GMT Sunday and left it at that intensity as of 0000 GMT Monday, assigning the storm maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. JTWC raised the intensity slightly to 130 mph (Category 4) just prior to landfall at 0600 GMT.

The center of Nona will move on a west or west-northwest course along the northern edge of the Visayas and the southern edge of Luzon into Tuesday. The cyclone should start to weaken Monday night into Tuesday, with the rate of weakening depending on how much time the eye spends over land.

Damaging winds are likely within the eyewall. Nona is a relatively compact system with typhoon-force winds (74 mph or greater) extending about 40 miles from its center. Therefore, the most extreme winds will be confined to a very small area near the eye.

As of its 5 p.m. bulletin Monday, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal 3 for Sorsogon, Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Southern Quezon, Marinduque and Romblon provinces in the Luzon island group, and for Northern Samar province in the Visayas island group. This means winds of 121 to 170 kph (75 to 106 mph) are expected to arrive within 18 hours in the affected areas.

Typhoon Nona (Melor) effects in Gubat, Sorsogon, PH | 14 12 2015

Public Storm Warning Signal 2 is in effect for provinces in the path of Typhoon Nona as far west as Batangas, to the south of Manila. In those areas winds of 61 to 120 kph (38 to 74 mph) are expected within 24 hours.

Metro Manila itself is among a slew of provinces under Public Storm Warning Signal 1 for winds of 30 to 60 kph (19 to 37 mph) within 36 hours.

Older residential structures made of light materials will be particularly vulnerable to damage. Widespread power outages and disruption of communication services is possible in the hardest hit areas.

Meanwhile, saltwater flooding from storm surge and freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall will both be significant threats near where the center of Nona passes through.

PAGASA has forecast a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) in areas of onshore winds near the path of Nona.

The freshwater flooding threat includes the capital city of Manila and surrounding areas. The center of Nona is forecast to pass south of the National Capital Region Tuesday local time. Our forecast rainfall graphic shows that more than a foot (300 millimeters) of rain could fall in parts of that area between now and Wednesday night.

Western Pacific tropical cyclones, known as typhoons when they reach hurricane-equivalent status, can form any time of year.

Owing partially to this year-round calendar of potential development, roughly one-third of all the Earth’s tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific Basin. On average, 25 tropical cyclones form each year in the western Pacific Basin, with 15 or 16 of those strengthening to Category 1 equivalent typhoons.