The near-term trajectory of Manhattan office leasing, in which an “unprecedentedly strong” local economy halted to contain the coronavirus pandemic, remains to be seen. But JLL sees a growing consensus that the market’s first-quarter rent levels “will represent a cyclical high and are poised for a correction.”

The extensiveness of a potential rent reversion depends largely upon the longevity of the crisis, which has been especially acute in New York City—and for which there is “no modern precedent,” writes JLL’s Craig Leibowitz. Following the cessation of the health emergency, there will be lingering impacts on occupancy strategies, already evident in current deal velocity.

“Negotiations for lease expiration-driven requirements have largely progressed, but have slowed while opportunistic growth and expansion requirements are likely to temporarily pause until conditions stabilize,” he writes.