Short Term Update

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...On Monday, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest,but should take until the late afternoon to make it to SE Alabama.The front will then push through the remainder of the area onMonday Night as it begins to stall from the central Gulf of Mexicoto just offshore of the Carolinas. This timing supports highestPoPs in the northwestern portion of our area, and from the midafternoon through the evening. The cold front will be taking on anincreasingly negative tilt in the vertical (sloped back towardsthe northwest) with time, as the shallow cooler air mass near thesurface is advected south to the coasts. This should lead toweaker low-level forcing by Monday Night, and mainly post-frontallight rain showers.

The latest SPC SWODY2 has a "slight risk" of severe thunderstormsjust northwest of our area for Monday, with lower probabilities tothe east. There will be an abundance of deep layer (and low-level)shear across the region, but the primary convective ingredientthat is in question is instability. The mean CAPE on convectionallowing models is only around 300-500 j/kg in the western part ofour area, and forecast soundings reveal fairly weak lapse rates.Additionally, there may be an abundance of low-mid level cloudcover that could limit insolation across parts of the area. Thus,the overall probability of severe weather seems low, although astrong storm may be possible in our SE Alabama counties late.

Forecast soundings for Tuesday across most of the area show apronounced frontal inversion around 900mb in the wake of thesurface cold front, with a fairly moist column. Therefore, itlooks like a cloudy, cool day with northerly winds. The NAM showssome modest vertical motion coinciding with a saturated layer nearthe frontal inversion, which could produce drizzle and light rainshowers. By Tuesday Night, the approach of a digging shortwave atthe base of the broader trough should provide sufficient deeplayer forcing for more widespread rain overnight.

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