A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Chairman of LCRP since January 2013

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Congressional District 11 (MI-11) - Updated

Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.

Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield
reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne
County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t
get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West
Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14
that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and
skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was
reported with the township.

This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad
McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for
congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and
McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on
November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry
Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson,
and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due
to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional
race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some
strong democrat areas no longer in the district.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion
of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the
map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but
it flipped big in 2008 and 2012. The
dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the
growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland
and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit
of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door.
Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it
comes to voting.

Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city
in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008,
the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It
is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also
a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white
ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.

West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are
safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville
Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The
city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice
(barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney
did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R,
2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+.
That’s due to Canton being the 2nd to Livonia in population in this
district.

North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds
90% of Farmington, but is in the 14th District. Farmington was
consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than
McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s
42.02%. Migration.

North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of
Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville
(City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told
me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50%
there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before
that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills.
Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting
heavily democrat.

North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township.
Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%.
With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t
gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake
is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it.
Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major
problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to
commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they
all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high
dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The
largest precinct he lost1185-378.

North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it
dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next
to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the
district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas
aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+
areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or
more R.

East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it,
including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14th
district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the
parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but
it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part
of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to
the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the
area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04,
although he struggled in 2000 here.

Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s
80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly
Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+
black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is
Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8th. Part of it is a bridge to
Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%.
Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem
in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is
tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of
Clawson except driving through it.

Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield
Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican
area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did
very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here.
Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of
Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear
about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.

Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop
the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are
going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to
avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to
watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).

Another thing to watch here is a possible primary.
There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to
be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and
have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out,he was it, and he won in the general against
a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty
primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race?
This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.