Plays for UFC Fight Night 126

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed back to Austin, TX for the third time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros. The 12 fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7 p.m. and the main card will get going on the same channel at 9 p.m.

Here are my plays…

Welterweight bout: Donald Cerrone (-110) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+100)

Gabe's Thoughts: I believe Cerrone is the superior mixed martial artist of the two and has a big advantage both on the feet and on the mat. I think he should be a -350 betting favorite, so I see great value in him at his current asking price of -110. I was big on Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till as underdogs against Cerrone, but I think this is a favorable matchup for “Cowboy” and I see him getting his hand raised, ultimately snapping his three fight losing skid, which includes a controversial decision loss to Robbie Lawler. I believe Cerrone holds the advantages everywhere in this contest. I see him having a big edge on the feet, and if either fighter decides to take things to the mat, I think they will be in Cerrone’s world, as I believe he is likely to finish this fight by submission both from top and bottom positions. On the feet, I think he i capable of winning both by T/KO or by outpointing the Hawaiian over the course of five rounds for the unanimous decision victory. I believe this is Cerrone’s easiest fight since John Makdessi and I think this one may be easier. “Easy” may not be the best word to use, but I find it to be the best fitting. At the near coin-flip price of -110, I love Cerrone for a play in this contest.

Gabe's Call: Cerrone by Submission (triangle choke, 3:23 round 1)

Gabe's Recommended Play: Cerrone (-110) 9.9u to win 9u

Flyweight bout: Joby Sanchez (-140) vs. Roberto Sanchez (+130)

Gabe's Thoughts: This is a striker versus grappler matchup in which I favor the grappler, who happens to be the betting underdog at +130. I think Sanchez should be a -140 to -160 betting favorite here, so I’ll take a shot on him at underdog odds. I see Sanchez finding success with his takedowns in this bout, and I think there is a decent chance that he finishes it on the mat, but if not, I do favor him to earn the victory on the judges’ scorecards. In a three round fight, as long as he does not get knocked out, I favor his superior grappling to benefit him in either edging or dominating at least two out of three rounds of this fight, should it play out for all 15 minutes.