Monday, November 26, 2007

Here is a look at the various windows and indicators I track over the course of a day. Other indicators are more end-of-day in nature: more on these in later posts. I have another window that provides a view of various time frames as well. What do you track intra-day?

Interesting news on retail sales (Day After Thanksgiving +8.3%), from the Saudis (production increases) and Federal Reserve (liquidity infusion) today. The markets look morose and certainly very oversold in both price and time here -- but the primary down trend is quite obvious and the morning gap puts us at the top of the channel. Have I mentioned how I hate flat/narrow ranges (back through 10:00 am CST)? They can break hard and it's a tough call directionally here.

There is usually an end-of-month upside bias and negative sentiment seems quite overdone very short-term here in spite of the serious economic conditions we may be facing, but note how many of the seasonal patterns are failing. Nevertheless, it would be "nice" for the bulls to minimally see a higher low put in today.

3:03PM CST UPDATE: Ugly -- The SPY bounced down hard off of its declining VWAP and never looked back, forming a bearish engulfing bar exceeding last week's lows. I now expect further declines at least down to the August lows.

As interesting as this can all be for timing entries and scalping, if that's what you do, following the intra-day can be detrimental -- here is an interesting article by Dr. Brett that is all too true:

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