THE head of an international schools survey says he is “optimistic” Wales’ education system can climb the world league table.

Michael Davidson, who heads the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) in Paris, said Wales is capable of improving its performance and the strides made by other nations show what can be achieved.

He pointed to countries like Poland, Peru and Chile – which leapt 39 points in the Pisa rankings from 2000 to 2009 – as prime examples.

“I know Pisa in Wales has come as a shock and a wake-up call but that’s what forward- looking, advancing education systems do – they are prepared to see how they stand up against other education systems,” he said.

“It’s import for countries to look outside their own borders and reflect on their own performance against the best in the world.”

Pisa uses a representative sample of students from more than 70 countries to gauge how different education systems are performing against one another.

Wales ranked 38th for reading, 40th for maths and 30th for science the last time tests were carried out across a snapshot of 123 secondary schools in 2009.

The results were well below expectations and formed a driver for Education Minister Leighton Andrews’ 20-point school improvement plan.

Delivering the OECD’s first Pisa presentation in Wales, Mr Davidson said: “Wales had bad results in reading and maths – everybody knows that – but the time for labouring too much over that is past and the important thing to do now is to take action and what is good to see is that there is action being taken.

“I see the 20-point action agenda the minister’s got is really going in the right direction in many of the key things. The implementation of those actions is what’s going to reap the success – or not – as far as Wales is concerned.”

Mr Davidson said Welsh teenagers are lagging the equivalent of two school years behind pupils in Shanghai – one of the world’s top-performing education centres – and half a year below the OECD average.

Closer analysis of the 2009 study reveals the proportion of top performers is below average in Wales and the proportion of lower performers is higher.

He said: “One of the things we get often told when we present Pisa results, is that it is all cultural and Asian countries always perform better because they’ve got this discipline – but it’s not the case.

“Sure, Shanghai came in first in 2009 and almost went off the scale – but then you have countries from Europe and countries from North America and Australasia – and there are Asian countries that don’t perform particularly well, so it obviously goes beyond culture.

“In fact, when we asked Shanghai and Hong Kong, who were also high performers, to what extent do you put this down to culture, they identified six or seven factors – two of which they attributed to culture – but the others were factors that actually every other education system is striving to tackle – in terms of supporting teachers, supporting school leaders and school improvement.

“The successful education systems are not necessarily the ones that live and breathe Pisa. In fact, when results were last published in December 2010, the reaction from Shanghai students and teachers wasn’t ‘we’ve done it, we’re top of the Pisa list’ – it was ‘we need to develop more critical thinking and more innovative skills’. They’ll use this as a platform for pushing on to the next level.”

Mr Davidson said “bringing the tail up” and focusing on a school system’s underachievers was the most effective – and easiest – route to improved Pisa performance.

He said results from other countries show what is achievable and Wales should learn from “successful reformers” like Chile.

The South American nation was “off the scale” when testing began in 2000, but a “remarkable change” in fortunes has seen it improve the equivalent of a school year.

Mr Davidson said: “Chile did a number of things. They had a fairly systematic reform of their education system; they introduced much more systematic evaluation and assessment systems; and they purposely targeted low achievers and students from poorer backgrounds.

“The increase in average performance for Chile was almost wholly by bringing up that bottom end of performance. It did come with significant additional funding and they also increased teacher salaries which, prior to that period, were lower than in similar countries.

“But I think it’s important to bear in mind that the investment started with a low base. The expenditure in Chile was low and they recognised that more expenditure was needed. I think the important message for Wales is that it shows what can be achieved.”

Wales came late to the Pisa party – it joined for the first time in 2006 – but the Welsh Government already has lofty hopes for the future.

Unveiling his improvement plan last year, Mr Andrews said he wanted to see Wales’ school system established in the world’s top-20 when Pisa tests in 2015.

The survey is becoming a global benchmark for performance and there is a perception that failure to improve will jeopardise economic prosperity.

When asked if Wales was capable of meeting the minister’s target, Mr Davidson said: “A 20-point increase in the space of six years would be a challenge – it’s not impossible – but it would be at the upper end of what other countries have achieved.

“If Wales made the same improvement that Chile has done over a 10-year period, Wales would go from statistically below the average to significantly above average. That’s what would be a reasonable goal for Wales to set. Wales’ performance is half a school year below the OECD average. Chile improved by a whole school year but in 10 years.

“These changes can’t happen overnight and it will take some time bed in.

“My reading of the ministerial documents is that the minister wants to raise standards of education in Wales and one way to judge the extent to which that’s happening is by using Pisa as the external mirror to see what progress Wales will make against the standards that Pisa has and what other countries are achieving.

“A good education system has to be aspirational. Aspiration to achieve high standards is certainly what you see in Finland, Singapore, Shanghai – all of the top performing countries have those high aspirations.

“I think the practitioners, the local authorities, the schools, the head teachers and the teachers themselves have to be provided with a capacity in order to realise that vision of aspiration. I’d be surprised if you find teachers that don’t have those aspirations as well.”

Mr Davidson said Welsh pupils who enjoy and are properly engaged in reading perform significantly better than those who do not.

Overall, 42% of Welsh teenagers at the last Pisa count said they did not read for enjoyment.

Mr Davidson said pupils’ inability to “integrate and interpret” texts was one of Wales’ biggest problems. And while unions argue a “legacy of underfunding” has impacted on performance, Mr Davidson said evidence suggests the way money is spent is more significant than the amount delegated.

He pointed to the US – which spends more than $100,000 (£64,000) per student by the time they reach Pisa age – and Poland, which spends $40,000 (£26,000) but performs to a similar same level.

“Generally, expenditure only explains something like 9% of the differences that we see between countries,” said Mr Davidson.

“In the space of 10 years between 2000 and 2009, expenditure per student on average across OECD countries went up by 25% in real terms. That’s an impressive increase but the depressing thing is that across the OECD we have seen no improvement on average across countries in performance.

“Throwing more money at education isn’t necessarily the solution. It’s more about how that money is used effectively.”

Looking ahead, Mr Davidson said it was crucial to have coherent policies and practices in place.

“The secret of success is not so much in identifying what needs to be done but in making sure that everything’s coherent and joined up,” he said.

“The key is always the implementation and that it’s done with fidelity and all the elements connect. Successful education systems do this very well.

“I was really struck by listening to people from Singapore who, when we asked what they did when the Pisa results came out, said they have the government round the table to discuss what it means for the society – not just for education.

“Joined-up government and joined up policies are very important for future success – but it’s easy to say, harder to do. I wouldn’t let the Pisa tests be the be all and end all.”

Mr Davidson said there were plans to introduce digital testing of students – rather than the current pen and paper format – but dismissed claims Pisa was a “hard sell” to children.

Unlike GCSEs and A-levels, participants are not given a grade and some teachers find it difficult to promote the two-hour assessment without the incentive of a recognised qualification.

Mr Davidson said the importance of Pisa should not be used as the sole driver, adding: “To start from the point that you want to motivate students because it’s a Pisa test and it’s important, I think is the wrong way to go about it.

“The correct motivation is that these are skills that are valued in the education system and that are important for students later in life.

"That’s your starting point and if in that context students and parents need to be convinced, then there’s plenty of evidence that supports our assertion that what Pisa measures is skills that students need to have in order to be successful.”

Mr Davidson, who has lived in the OECD’s base in Paris for nine years, was invited by the Welsh Local Government Association to address stakeholders in Builth Wells ahead of the next tranche of Pisa tests in November.

The conference attracted teachers, council officers and school leaders from across Wales and included a keynote speech from Mr Andrews.

“As the next assessments approach, my officials are focussing on strategies to improve the weaknesses identified in Pisa,” said the minister.

“I know my ambition for Wales to climb the Pisa rankings is a significant challenge and it would be unrealistic to expect significant improvements in the 2012 Pisa results. Systemic change takes time if it is to have a lasting impact.

“But this is about equipping our young people with the skills they need for future study and the workplace.

“There has been progress since 2009. I set out a 20-point action plan to secure a step change in education and this is already well under way.”