When Does Groupon — Still at More Than 80 Percent Off — Become a Deal for Someone?

Wall Street is certainly enthusiastic for such an outcome — even grabbing onto a specious rumor that perhaps Google was sniffing around the troubled Chicago-based social discount deals company, which is currently valued at just over $3 billion. On Friday, Groupon’s stock jumped 23 percent on takeover speculation after Tom Forte of Telsey Advisory Group was quoted as saying: “Where the stock is currently trading, it’s a takeout candidate.”

Actually, the stock has been trading at these levels for a very long time, so the sudden attention is decidedly overwrought. More to the point, sources close to Google — which had offered $6 billion for the company before it went public — said that Google has not been contemplating a second foray into acquiring Groupon.

The same is true for eBay, said sources, and Amazon is an unlikely buyer because it already owns a stake in LivingSocial, the second-largest daily deals provider. Additionally, there are lots of other problems that any purchaser would face in buying the company, which sells everything from bikini waxes to GPS devices at a discount.

In an onstage appearance this morning, CEO Andrew Mason declined to address the thinly sourced rumors of a takeover. “What I have said about Groupon is everything I will say about it,” he said. “I am focused on looking forward.”

Given the non-answer, it’s still prudent to ask, is there actually a buyer for Groupon?

First, let’s address the price. Two years ago, Google offered to purchase Groupon for $6 billion. A year later, it went public at $10 billion, and today, it is trading for $2.9 billion. The company has $1.2 billion in cash, and owes merchants about half of that, or around $573 million.

That said, it is still a relatively low price for a company that includes a customer base of 40 million people who bought something in the past year, a hodgepodge of local retailers and merchants that consider Groupon their online marketing channel, and — perhaps most importantly — a better-than-expected mobile business that now represents a third of its transactions.

But, while it costs much less than it once did, that doesn’t necessarily make Groupon a steal.

That’s because over the past year, the Chicago company has stumbled operationally. Europe is underperforming, the company’s main coupon business is slowing as the novelty of the business is wearing off and it has started investing heavily in selling products, a low-margin business that requires tons of logistics to package and ship items to people’s front doors. On top of that, the board recently discussed replacing Mason, who some directors fear may not be the right choice to continue leading the company. While they ultimately decided to keep him, it was a perceptual blow.

At least one big investor is betting something will happen: Tiger Global Management, which recently bought up close to 10 percent of Groupon. The well-regarded hedge fund and private equity firm may be betting it can’t get worse, and perhaps would even push for a sale.

In any case, here’s a look at some of the scenarios:

Google

When Google made the offer two years ago, the search engine was interested in entering the daily deals business as a way to gain a foothold into all things local, including commerce. Since Groupon rejected that $6 billion acquisition, Google has spent the past two years building Google Offers.

While Google Offers still has a very small piece of the market, it has been pivoting toward an integrated ads model, which is less complementary to Groupon’s approach. Google believes that merchants will pay Google only after a purchase has been made, and the sum will be determined by the consumer. The cost per acquisition model is very different from Groupon, which has the consumer paying up front for a heavily discounted coupon.

As one source with knowledge of the situation said: “The timing would be a bit wacky.”

That said, Nikesh Arora, Google’s SVP and chief business officer, had been a very strong advocate of the original deal and might still want more heft in Google’s corner in the competitive local scene. One major plus is that Groupon could also help build a local salesforce to push Google+ Local, which includes Zagat, the online reviews site that competes against Yelp. Groupon might also support its Google Wallet business, which has largely failed to gain traction among consumers.

Another source familiar with the two companies said running a daily deals business is “operationally intensive, and it’s a muscle that Google doesn’t have, so from a synergy standpoint it would be complementary.” But, “if they are still serious about local, is that the business model for local that they want to pursue?”

eBay

For the past two years, the e-commerce company has aggressively been going after the local commerce market by helping transactions occur online or at a nearby store. Additionally, its PayPal division is moving fast into the physical payments space. Strong merchant relationships, like the ones Groupon has, could go a long way toward making those things happen faster.

It also has the stomach for acquisitions. However, many of its purchases over the past two years have been about buying technology and talent. It bought RedLaser, the barcode scanning technology for $10 million; Milo.com, a local inventory company, for $75 million; and Zong, a mobile payments company, for $240 million. Over the years, it has also made substantial purchases, including GSI last year for $2.4 billion, Bill Me Later for $1.2 billion and Skype for $2.6 billion.

A few months back, the company entered the daily deals business with the launch of eBay Lifestyle Deals, which runs daily deals in a number of markets, including San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. To do so, eBay teamed up with Signpost, which arranges the deals with local merchants. Interestingly, Signpost is backed by Google Ventures, and already provides deals for Google Offers.

The company is also experimenting with eBay Now, a service that allows consumers to buy something on their phone and have it delivered within an hour. “They continue to be interested in local, and they have this experiment going on right now with eBay Now, but they are still iterating and figuring out the local angle,” one source said.

Likewise, PayPal’s local strategy is under development. It is trying to roll out physical payments to big-box retailers like Home Depot while also offering a credit card reader for smaller retailers called PayPal Here.

The biggest argument against this deal is that eBay may not need Groupon, and that it already has the infrastructure to roll out deals through partnerships — which would cost a whole lot less and be a lot less painful.

Amazon

Simply put, Amazon already has its own troubles with its significant stake in LivingSocial, which just slashed 400 jobs. In the third quarter, Amazon took an impairment charge of $169 million, or 37 cents a share, related to its stake in LivingSocial, resulting in the company reporting an overall third-quarter net loss of $274 million, or 60 cents a share.

Any potential Amazon-Groupon tie-up would then be a merger between LivingSocial and Groupon, creating perhaps an even bigger black hole that would also result in a lot of ongoing integration problems. While together LivingSocial and Groupon would easily make Amazon the largest daily deals company and up its local commerce efforts, it’s still not clear if the online retail giant wants to double down here.

Separately, Amazon has entered the daily deals business on its own with a service called Amazon Local that competes directly with LivingSocial and Groupon. The offers became particularly interesting to the company after it started using them to discount the price of its Kindle e-readers and tablets. If owners don’t want to see the offers, the tablets can cost up to $40 more.

The company has said that it essentially doesn’t need help building the business — it thinks it can get to scale fast in the space because it already has 164 million active customer accounts worldwide (which are defined as people who have made a purchase in the past year).

Perhaps most importantly, though, Amazon has a history of building, not buying.

Visa, MasterCard, American Express

These three payment companies have huge market values, and should not be discounted as players in the local commerce space. In addition, a year ago, all of them started looking for new revenue streams after the Durbin Amendment capped the amount that banks and card networks charge merchants on debit card transactions.

Already, many banks are sending targeted ads or deals to consumers based on their spending habits. However, it’s unclear whether they need to be the actual deal makers, or just act as a distribution system for advertisements and coupons. For example, MasterCard recently partnered with Gilt City, the daily deals division of Gilt Groupe. Through the partnership, MasterCard will be able to offer its users deals for restaurants, concert tickets and travel, and at the same time, help Gilt City get in front of some of the card issuer’s millions of users.

MasterCard may be the frontrunner of the three as a potential suitor. Not only has it shown direct interest in the space, American Express is still absorbing its acquisition of Revolution Money, for which it paid $300 million cash in 2010, and Visa has been active with its purchase of CyberSource for $2 billion in 2010. More recently, it made an investment in Square, the hot mobile payments company.

Other Suspects

A number of other companies could be put on a Groupon acquisition list, such as Yahoo, Microsoft and Facebook.

Microsoft and Yahoo both have the money, but have not done much in the space so far. An acquisition would allow them to catch up quickly, but would be expensive and largely not complementary with what they are doing already — which is almost nothing. Facebook, in particular, tried once to enter the space and failed and might be focused on other lower-hanging revenue sources.

Groupon could also look to private equity firms for a buyout, which would allow it to have some space while it fixed some of its issues.

Internationally, there is Japan’s Rakuten, which owns Buy.com in the U.S., and China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba, which has been looking at ways to enter the U.S. market.

Of course, Groupon might simply keep stumbling forward and hope it can turn itself around. But, at some point, without improved revenue and cohesion at the top levels, something is sure to bring pressure to its options.

In fact, in afternoon trading today, the rumors continued to keep the stock elevated. Shares closed 3.76 percent higher today at $4.41 a share.

Just as the atom bomb was the weapon that was supposed to render war obsolete, the Internet seems like capitalism’s ultimate feat of self-destructive genius, an economic doomsday device rendering it impossible for anyone to ever make a profit off anything again. It’s especially hopeless for those whose work is easily digitized and accessed free of charge.

— Author Tim Kreider on not getting paid for one’s work

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