Obama moves ahead in Iowa, tied in first

Sen. Barack Obama is statistically tied with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the lead in the make-or-break state of Iowa, and considered trustworthy by twice as many people, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

"There’s going to be a caucus and not just a coronation," said Bill Burton, national press secretary for the Obama campaign.

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The poll found 30 percent supporting Obama and 26 percent for Clinton — a statistical tie, since the poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, at 22 percent, was also tied with Clinton. After that, 11 percent backed New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

An analysis by Gary Langer of ABC News says those are little changed since July: Edwards is up four, Obama is up 3 and Clinton is unchanged.

Asked which candidate is “the most honest and trustworthy,” 31 percent of respondents said Obama; 21 percent said other, none or no opinion; 20 percent said Edwards; 15 percent said Clinton; and 13 percent said Richardson.

The poll found voters are increasingly interested in a “new direction and new ideas” as opposed to strength and experience – which may help Obama, who holds a substantial lead among “new direction” voters.

Clinton’s “advantage on experience, while substantial, has softened since summer,” the analysis says.

“Clinton has notably less support in Iowa than nationally in trust to handle a variety of specific issues; on Iraq, Obama now runs evenly with her. And she’s third in Iowa among men.”

The analysis attributes part of Obama’s strength to “lingering doubts about Hillary Clinton’s honesty and forthrightness.”

“While Clinton still leads on more personal attributes, just half of Iowa Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll believe she’s willing to say what she really thinks – far fewer than say so of either Obama or John Edwards,” the analysis says. “Obama beats her by 2-1 as the most honest and trustworthy candidate.”

Clinton continues to dominate on the question of which candidate “has the best experience to be president.”

She was chosen by 38 percent, compared to 16 percent each for Edwards and Richardson, and 11 percent for Obama.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday through Sunday, from a random sample of 500 Iowan adults likely to vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus.

So the poll includes some respondents who had seen Clinton’s well-reviewed performance in Thursday’s debate in Las Vegas, and some who had not.

In the Republican race in another critical state, meanwhile, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gained ground in a CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Presidential Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

The poll’s analysis, released Monday afternoon, said Romney’s gain has been “mostly at the expense of Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson.” While Romney “appears strong on domestic issues, foreign policy may be a potential Achilles heel in the coming weeks,” the analysis says.

Romney was at 33 percent, up from 25 percent in September; Sen. John McCain is unchanged at 18; former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is at 16, down from 24; Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) has doubled his share to 8 percent; and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee has collapsed to 4 percent, from 13 percent in September.

The margin of error is plus or minus five points, and was conducted Wednesday through Sunday.