Latest track aims Cat 4 Irma at Lower Keys, Florida Gulf coast next

The Lower Keys will likely take a direct hit from Hurricane Irma, one of the most powerful hurricanes on record, Sunday morning before the ferocious storm roars up Florida’s west coast.

Where Irma ultimately makes landfall on the mainland remains uncertain because of the storm’s angle to the coast, National Hurricane Center forecasters said in their early Saturday update. But Irma’s fierce center could near Tampa Bay, which has not been struck by a major hurricane since October 1921, when the population was about 10,000, said hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. About 4 million people now live in the low-lying area.

“Big difference,” he said. “They’re incredibly vulnerable.”

On Sunday, the Keys should brace for a “very life-threatening event,” hurricane specialist Mike Brennan said, with storm surge possibly pushing water 10 feet above ground level. By 9:30 a.m., tropical storm force winds started to descend, with 39 mph winds recorded at Molasses Reef off Key Largo, he said.

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The latest forecast track also crosses dangerously close to Captiva and Sanibel in an eerie repeat of 2004’s Hurricane Charley. Hurricane wobbles, however are notorious. Forecast tracks can still be off by about 90 miles at two days, Brennan said.

At 8 a.m. Saturday, Irma was located 225 miles south of Miami with sustained winds of 130 mph, forecasters said. While still far away, storm bands were already starting to reach South Florida, with squally rains and wind blowing over Miami, an ominous sign of the storm’s ferocious power. Miami International Airport recorded a 55 mph gust Saturday morning.

Potential tropical storm headed for South Florida on Saturday

Irma remains massive, with hurricane-strength winds reaching 70 miles from its center and tropical storm force winds extending 195 miles — making it wider than the state. The storm is expected to batter Florida for at least two days, Brennan said.

Saturday morning, Irma plowed ashore Cuba’s north coast, east of Santa Clara. At 8 a.m., the center was located about 10 miles northwest of Caibarién, a village nicknamed The White Town because of its beaches and once a thriving resort. In 2009, the population was about 38,000.

Moving over land will likely weaken winds, but warm waters in the Florida straits are expected to recharge the hurricane.

Because Irma is so big, impacts are expected to be widespread, with dangerous and potentially catastrophic storm surge rolling up and down the Florida coast.

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Above-ground water levels could reach up to 10 feet along the east coast from Cape Sable to Boca Raton, forecasters said. On the Gulf coast, where the flat continental shelf worsens the threat, the surge could reach 12 feet from the cape to Captiva. Flood-prone Tampa could see three to five feet.

National Hurricane Center

Heavy rain could worsen flooding. Up to 15 inches are possible in the Keys, with up to 20 inches in some places. The Florida mainland is expected to get between eight and 15 inches.

The record-breaking hurricane — Irma accumulated more wind energy in 48 hours than any hurricane ever recorded — has been menacing South Florida for days. Track forecasts earlier pointed it to the urban east coast, home to more than 6 million, triggering frantic preparations. Evacuations were ordered that affected about 680,000 people in Miami-Dade alone. Gas pumps ran dry. Store shelves quickly emptied.

As forecasts began shifting west, taking the storm up the center of the state, evacuations increased to eventually cover nearly 20 counties.

On its current track, Irma is expected to begin crossing the Florida straits early Sunday. The center of the track crosses close to Cudjoe Key, where Hurricane Georges hit in 1998 and delivered a 10 to 12-foot storm surge, cut off water and electricity to the chain of islands, and left the Lower Keys a ragged mess.

The storm is expected to continue moving west-northwest for the next 12 to 24 hours before making a turn to the northwest Saturday, with another turn to the north-northwest tonight or Sunday. After crossing the Keys, Irma is expected to roll up the coast.