Desperate fear of an Abbott win

The section of the labour movement Julia Gillard has done most for – trade unions – is beginning to edge away from her.

As the temperature on the Labor leadership slowly rises again, it appears that Gillard can no longer rely on her trade union supporters fighting as hard for her as they have.

There is no stampede to Kevin Rudd but if – or as seems increasingly likely, when – Labor decides that Gillard’s leadership is no longer tenable, and Gillard turns to the unions for support, that support will be less robust than when it helped her get the leadership in 2010 and keep it five months ago.

And what is clear from the talk about the Labor leadership that is now gaining intensity in the union movement is that Rudd is the only credible alternative leader being considered.

The discussion among unionists at the ACTU on Tuesday may come to be seen as a watershed moment in the battle for Gillard’s survival.

She insisted this week –after comments by government whip Joel Fitzgibbon suggesting that Gillard would not survive if the polls did not improve – that the leadership issue was ­settled.

She said it had been resolved in February and she would lead Labor to the 2013 election. But the fact that the ACTU discussion took place ­following ­Fitzgibbon’s comments blows Gillard’s assertion apart.

That the union leadership is talking about it confirms that the Labor leadership issue is very much alive.

The reason the unions are discussing it is the same reason Fitzgibbon went public: union leaders are alarmed by the prospect of Tony Abbott sweeping to power against a disastrously unpopular Gillard-led Labor government.

Since Gillard thumped Rudd in the February vote, the labour movement has been holding its breath and hoping she could begin turning her, and Labor’s, fortunes around.

As the polls have continued to flat-line, Gillard has urged Labor and the unions to be patient. She confidently predicted that after the carbon tax came into operation on July 1, there would be a gradual shift in the polls back to Labor.

Gillard and her supporters now say it’s too early for this effect to be seen, but they believe that when Parliament resumes next month, there will be signs the tide has begun to turn.

In their discussions, union leaders canvassed the prospect that nothing would change in Labor’s bad polling and that the anti-Gillard forces would move against her. Union leaders agree that the union movement should be prepared to accept this possibility.

For the Rudd camp, the significance of this is the hope that if a new battle between Gillard and Rudd does take place, Labor caucus members will be free to vote as they choose and not be pressured by unions to back Gillard.

At the February ballot, unions strongly backed Gillard against Rudd.

But there was one big proviso for any union leader backing Rudd – or at least acquiescing in his return to the leadership. The trade union movement is adamant that there should not be an early federal election.

If a change to Rudd were to result in the collapse of the minority Labor government and a rush to the polls, the unions don’t want the change.

They would rather another year with Labor in power under Gillard than an attempt to bring back Rudd that would lead to a collapse of the government.

Reassuring both the Labor caucus and the union movement that this will not happen will be a key hurdle to the chance of a leadership change.

The Australian Financial Review

BY Geoff Kitney

Geoff is a senior national affairs writer and columnist in
our Canberra bureau.