This is the St. Thomas football team’s first trip to Salem, and though Mount Union is a fixture there, the players on this squad have never gotten to hoist the Walnut and Bronze.

The game is Friday night and under the lights in Virginia. Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps are joined by a few extra voices for the final Triple Take of the season. Last week’s TT post had a whopping 94 comments, which was awesome. Chime in in the comments area below, and be sure to use the #d3fb hashtag (as well as #stagg) if you’re posting about the game on Twitter.

The Stagg Bowl is being broadcast at 7 p.m. Friday on ESPNU. Put the TV on mute and listen to the better/more accurate/more insightful broadcast that Coleman and McMillan will provide, and be sure to catch Tipps and Frank Rossi during the pregame show, which includes the unveiling of the D3football.com All-America team. And after the Stagg Bowl, there’ll be a postgame show as well as writeups on both the winning and losing teams.

Pat and Keith also gave their pregame thoughts (kept it under 10 minutes!):

On to our picks:

Pat Coleman, D3football.com executive editor and publisher
Mount Union 35, St. Thomas 17
I don’t know how many points experience is worth in a Stagg Bowl, and I don’t know how many points playing Mount Union for the first time is worth. I know they are both generally worth something, though I know they count for something. Sometimes, though, I look at a game featuring Mount Union and can’t envision a scenario in which the Purple Raiders can lose. That’s not the case here. St. Thomas has the talent and speed on defense to limit the Mount Union running game, at least from its running backs. The question in my mind is whether they can contain Mount Union quarterback Kevin Burke when he pulls it down and runs. The other thing St. Thomas will need to do is get enough pressure up front to not give Burke time to find his receivers. The problem is, he’s got multiple top receiver options to throw to, and the odds of the Tommies back seven covering all those guys and containing the run just seem long to me. On the reverse side, St. Thomas has a lot of good receivers but no great receiver as of yet. They have a pretty good freshman running back with good field vision and an offensive line that has been successful this season but is also pretty young. They also have a quarterback who is of similar style to the one Mount Union sees every day in practice. In my mind, it adds up to a Mount Union win. Perhaps not one in which St. Thomas gets blown off the field, but a win nonetheless.

Keith McMillan, D3football.com managing editor and national columnist
Mount Union 27, St. Thomas 13
The only thing I think I think about this game, having picked a few coaches’ brains here in Salem, is that we aren’t primed for an offensive shootout. Sure it’s a short week prep-wise, and at least one of the teams was practicing this week before its game plan was finished. Mount Union and St. Thomas are each built on outstanding defenses and great O-lines, so as you watch the game, you’ll have to break your normal habit of following the ball, and watch from the lines out if you want to figure out what’s really happening. That’s my plan, and I expect to see two defenses making it hard on the other to run the ball, which means the matchups on the outside might be the only place where an offense can gain a consistent advantage. If Junior Collins, Chris Denton, Julius Moore and Shannon Stewart outplay their counterparts in the St. Thomas secondary, and Kevin Burke is his usual self, Mount Union takes home championship No. 11.

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com senior editor and former mid-Atlantic columnist
Mount Union 34, St. Thomas 17
This year is four years in the making for this group of Purple Raiders seniors. No other team has lost three Stagg Bowls in a row, and it’s not likely a team will lose four in a row any time soon. A few weeks ago, a Mount fan on the message boards (apologies, I forget who) noted that for many years, the Purple Raiders were so offense-heavy that they were able to win games despite the holes they had on defense. Now, in turn, they’re winning because of the defense. I agree. Though Mount has been at the top of my ballot all year, I saw a lingering question mark because the run game was so unclear. And national championship teams have typically been led by the iconic names like Kmic, Beaver and Coppage. Mount didn’t have that feature coming into the season — but that didn’t matter. The surprise emergence of Kevin Burke, the stellar downfield threats, and most of all, the defense have made the Purple Raiders into a championship team – even if the mold breaks tradition. To be sure, St. Thomas is not exactly the neat little packet of expectations this season either. In the first week of Triple Take, I wondered aloud how a team could graduate its starting quarterback and All-Americans at running back and wide receiver and still expect to be able to hang with the best. The Tommies showed just how to make that happen, and they’ve certainly earned their way to Salem. But they are newcomers on Mount Union’s “other” home turf. It’ll be interesting for a quarter and maybe even at the half, but the Purple Raiders will pour it on after the break.

Frank Rossi, D3football.com broadcaster
Mount Union 34, St. Thomas 21
I actually believe these teams present a great matchup under normal circumstances with balance and depth that are second-to-none in Division III. With that said, there is no way to “practice” for Stagg Bowl week in Salem. The pomp and circumstance of the Gagliardi Trophy dinner, the “Spotlight on Champions” dinner, the interviews and the travel itself can take a newcomer by surprise — including yours truly four years ago when I first partook in all of the above. The Raiders are used to these aspects of the game; the Tommies are not. When kickoff comes Friday, I foresee some flatness in St. Thomas because of this first-time encounter with such a whirlwind week — and that’s a no-no when playing against a team that plays from ahead as well as any team in the land. An attempted UST rally falls short, and the Mount wins going away, avoiding the mistakes from six days earlier.

Adam Turer, D3football.com mid-Atlantic columnist
Mount Union 38, St. Thomas 20
The Purple Raiders are on a mission and appear more focused than any team we’ve seen in recent years. More importantly, they are playing with a confidence that allowed them to rally from 14 down in the fourth quarter last week in their first true late-game test. If this team can defeat Mary Hardin-Baylor despite five turnovers, I don’t see how St. Thomas or any other team in the country can beat them. Kevin Burke is wise beyond his years and benefits from a veteran offensive line and wide receivers. The running back committee has been steadily improving and just needs to take better care of the football this week. St. Thomas has its own overachieving sophomore quarterback in Matt O’Connell. The Tommies also have a formidable defense that will be capable of slowing the Purple Raiders in the early going. I expect a low halftime score with most of the points put up in the second half, once each offensive line wears down the opposing defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tommies defense rise to the challenge early in the game and set up an early score, giving St. Thomas the early lead. I just don’t see a defense led by seniors Charles Dieuseul and Nick Driskill allowing this opportunity to slip away. Chris Denton will be a factor on special teams for Mount Union. I don’t expect him to break a big return, but I expect his presence to force St. Thomas into short directional punts and give Mount Union the advantage in field position. Mount Union’s senior class will finally get its ring, capping off an already enjoyable season for head coach Larry Kehres. The Purple Raiders will reward their head coach for trusting in his players by bringing the Walnut & Bronze back to Alliance.

Jeffrey Zupanic, Mount Union beat writer for the Alliance Review
Mount Union 49, St. Thomas 14
The numbers suggest that picking Mount Union is the safe way to go in 2012. First, there’s the possibility of this year’s seniors being the first class since 1989 not to win a national championship ring, and they are far too talented for that to happen. Secondly, it is still mind-blowing to know that Mount Union turned the ball over five times and had two other possession end without points (bad snap on third down and unsuccessful fake punt) yet still scored 48 points in a national semifinal game against the No. 2 team in the country. The defense was as stout as it has been all year despite giving up the 35 points to UMHB (all of which came off turnovers). The Purple Raiders allowed 165 yards on those four possessions (one was a pick-six) while giving up just 110 yards to the Crusaders on their other 12 possessions. Lastly, there’s the “getting to know Mount Union” factor as I like to call it. Since 1992, the Purple Raiders are 29-2 against first-time opponents in the postseason — UW-LaCrosse in 1992 and Mary Hardin-Baylor in 2004 are the lone winners — and in that span they have scored 50+ points 12 times while giving up less than 10 points 12 times. Teams usually have not fared well against Mount Union the first time they play them with just 2 teams keeping the final margin within single digits (Trinity in 1998 and Bridgewater in 2001). This Mount Union team has been playing on a different level — even by Mount Union standards — all season long. They need just 14 points to become the most prolific offensive team in NCAA history (breaking the record set by the 2007 Purple Raiders). The Purple Raiders explosive offense will be celebrating under the exploding fireworks on Friday night.

Ross Schreck, Tommiemedia.com sports editor
Mount Union 21 St. Thomas 13
This season, St. Thomas has had to overcome numerous adversities. Whether it was the improbable 11-point come from behind victory with four minutes to go at UW-Eau Claire, or overcoming myriad injuries, this Tommie team has answered every question its been asked. The toughest question, however, is this Friday. Having covered this team since day one, St. Thomas’ success is predicated upon its defense’s ability to thwart the opposition’s running game and forcing opposing offenses out of their normal grooves. The key to Friday’s game boils down to the Tommies’ ability to slow down the prolific Mount Union offense and create turnovers. Last weekend, the Purple Raiders were uncharacteristically poor holding on to the football, giving up five turnovers to UMHB. The Tommie offense feeds off the momentum created by its defense and its special teams — just ask Elmhurst and UW-Oshkosh. Offensively, St. Thomas must stick to its solid running game and dominate time of possession. Although I do believe this game will be competitive, and after watching three Purple Raider games from different points in the year, Mount Union’s offense will likely prove too strong for the Tommie defense. Still, this is a very young Tommie team and the experience they receive from this trip to the national championship will prove immeasurable for years to come.

33 thoughts on “Triple Take: Stagg Bowl XL”

I’m going with UMU 41, St. Thomas 17. First timers vs. Mount Union generally don’t fare all that well. Unless St. Thomas can turn the Raiders over like UMHB did, I think this one gets away from the Tommies.

Wally,
Knee-jerk reaction is that I would agree with you on the first-timers vs. Mount Union comment. However, I have to wonder if there’s a big difference between first time ever playing against The Machine and first time for a coach or a generation of athletes.

For example, a bruised and battered Wabash team held its own against Mount last fall, and while that wasn’t the first time those two teams faced off, it was the first time the coach and that crop of players had ever lined up against UMU. Is that all that different than a St. Thomas team that has never historically been scheduled against the Purple Raiders?

Fisher played tough in ’06 (was 19-14 in 4thQ and 24-14 at end), as did Wesley in ’09 (was 10-7 in 4thQ) and last week’s UMHB team.

Perhaps it wasn’t the first time these teams had ever met UMU, but it was the first time ever for those players and at least the first time in several years for the coaches. They might as well have been viewed as newbies against the Purple Raiders.

Mount Union will win because they’re the faster, more skilled team right now. Next year and the year after that, that sentence I just typed likely won’t be so applicable.

I want to see the Tommies win. Heck, after rooting against them for seven straight years, I can’t start cheering for them! I just can’t see this year’s Purple Raider squad going down. It’ll be close until mid-4th quarter, when a late turnover and TD puts the game out of reach for St. Thomas.

Fair points all, Tipps. I think a couple of things were different for the Wabash game last year. First, last year’s Raiders were not the best group of Raiders we’ve seen during the dynasty. Very far from it. Second…while Wabash’s 2011 players and coaches hadn’t played against Mount Union before, it’s hard to argue that Coach Raeburn knows about as well as anybody outside of the OAC and Lance Leipold how to get ready for the Raiders.

I hope I’m wrong and the game is better than I’m forecasting tomorrow night. But like you said, it might take St. Thomas another year or two of seasoning to get there.

Honestly, the easy pick is mount union by two touchdowns. Whatever factor you want to reason (experience, pedigree, results, etc.) the needle points in the raiders direction. However, this Tommie’s team has been discounted the entire year and yet, here they are, undefeated and playing for the championship!

I do think mount will be the victor but I wouldn’t be surprised to see st Thomas regularly compete for the trophy in the years to come.

Good luck to both teams and lets hope the viewing public is treated to an entertaining and exciting game!!!

*sigh* In the past couple weeks I’ve been seen on the posts as a staunch UST supporter. They are very strong, and have probably the best coach in the country. About 1 month ago I also posted on the boards that I thought it was crazy for anyone to be giving #1 votes to any team other than Mount Union. I still believe that. St. Thomas has an amazing O-line, great defense, and even better coaching, but I can’t see the underclassmen-led offense beating a MTU team in the Stagg bowl that has the experience of being in the STagg bowl the last three consecutive seasons. There is just too big of a difference in experience on the big stage, and likely nerves will play a role. UST has the skill to win and they match up well, and I wish they would win, but it would take something magical, or an epic MTU meltdown, for this to happen.

I just watched the MU and UMHB replay on ESPNU One of the hardest hitting games I’ve seen. WOW! Hard to believe UMHB gave it away like that as we were ahead that late 3:42 to go and lose it. Got to give MU credit to come back the way they did. Nobody could have done that but MU. I don’t know how # 23 of MU held on to that ball after the hit #3 put on him. I thought he would fumble then we recover, kick a FG and win. Not to be!!

# 8 ,and 21 from MU should play on Sundays next year along with UMHB # 23 Jones, those guys bring it every play.

Tommies 27, Mount Union 24. Why? Because no one is giving them a chance.

No but seriously, I read the predictions above and I hear all the analysis and I get a bit annoyed. No the Tommies do not have a ton of individual superstars, but did you ever think that may just because they spread the ball out on offense well and they have a handful of guys on defense capable of making big plays?

I don’t buy the lack of individual talent argument because you need talent to get into this game in the first place. I am a Tommie alum, so I have some bias, but I just wanted to show the other purple team some love. Win or lose this team is coached by one if the best coaches in country at any level and is a very solid unit. They will be amongst the country’s top teams for many years to come. They will show you they belong tonight.

For those that follow this column and The Daily Dose know that I am a contrarian in this final pick – because I stuck my foot in my mouth on Monday by confusing the two columns.

I’ll stick to my guns with a St. Thomas win eked out and helped along the way by the turnover bug that has afflicted The Machine of late.

If the Tommies lose, what have they lost? Just the National Championship. There are seniors on the Tommie squad as well that won’t get another chance to bring home the walnut and bronze. If the Tommies win, the pundits lose more, in part because they will all be picking apart Mt. Union and what they did to lose the game to let them down.

Pat or others can help me out here on the remembering, but “the committee” had the playoff bracket set for Mt Union to come up to St. Thomas in 2009 if they both won their quarterfinal games. Guess what? Bethel beat St. Thomas that year and the two teams never met and Mt. Union kept it’s home field advantage as Bethel went down to Alliance and was soundly thrashed.

While it might sound a bit like I have made the counter-point, I know Coach Caruso remembers that loss, even mentioning Bethel in his interview with Pat this week. While it is an old cliché, “It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings” is apropos in this setting. Don’t rule out the Tommies just yet. I do think they have a chance at winning this game, and a good one at that.

I look forward to a great final game for 2012 – hopefully one that we’ll all be talking about for quite awhile afterwards. Good luck to both teams!

Reasons for UMU to win – all the stuff that’s already been said. Look at all the shut-outs they’ve had this year. Experience – this team has been here, and the seniors don’t want to be the first UMU players in twenty years to graduate without ever winning a Stag.

Reasons for UST to win – they appear to enjoy being the under-dog, playing from behind. They are a young team, yet they also have more experience than might be expected from a team with so many first and second year players. In the last couple of weeks they’ve made teams pay for mistakes. I noticed a number of UMU mistakes, particularly in last week’s game. If UST gets the chance to take advantage of similar mistakes, they have a better than even chance at winning. Plus, I’m a MIAC fan and I love to see the conference well represented.

Finally, again this year a big “thank you” to all the people at D3Football for presenting great coverage all season long!

I personally warmed to the St Thomas head coach during his post game press conference last week. I thought his comments were genuine and you could tell he was enjoying the moment with his players. Any team that makes it to Salem is not to be underestimated in any way in my opinion.

The 2012 Purple Raiders are very good. No doubt at it. I’ve enjoyed listening to games and watching online. And last week’s victory against UMHB was fun to watch. Having seen a lot of games from the Mt Union stands back in the day, to see all the Mount fans so into it and celebrating was nice. Here’s what bothered me. The Mount teams that I saw from 1997-2001 simply did not turn the football over. They played mistake-free football, let their opponents make the mistakes and made them pay for every one of them. Tonight, the Purple Raiders need to come in and start with the 4th quarter intensity they had last week and play error free football. If they do, I think the great cast of talent they have will win the day.

I expect Nick Driskill and the Mount D to have a great game. St Thomas I’m sure has been working on their special teams, having seen Mount swing the last two ball games in their favor on blocked punts.

If Mount bring the intensity early I think it’s their day. I look forward to seeing everything that St Thomas will bring to the table.

As I felt all year long, the only way MU loses a game is if they beat themselves, and that almost came to fruition last weekend with 5 turnovers. I do not see that happening this weekend. Should be close into the half, but MU pulls away. 35-17.

A few things:
I missed Pat’s cue on the QBs partially because we were talking about two different years, but also because I completely forgot about Kurt Rocco. (Sorry Kurt)

After Micheli from 06 to 08 (06 shared with Jorris) it went:
2009: Rocco
2010: Seaman’s year but Piloto started Stagg Bowl, threw 43 passes and 4 INTs, and Shorts came in and went 5-7 in the 4th.
2011: Piloto (Seaman threw a pass, Namdar got a carry)

Re: St. Thomas, if you clicked on the video you realize Pat and I both give them a chance. If you read the O-line and defense features, you know that we know that’s where their strength lies, and so when we say they don’t have the outstanding skill kids like Waldvogel/Tracy/Tobin, it is by extension a compliment to how good the OL and D are, as they have carried the team here. O’Connell, Braddock et. al. can play, but they are younger and IMO not the backbone of the squad.

We all acknowledge that Caruso, Kuchinski and the UST gang are just getting started. Would be very surprised if this is their only Stagg Bowl.

That said, you never know how many opportunities you get, so you must take advantage of today, and not assume that this is just the stepping stone to someday being able to beat Mount Union. I doubt anyone on the team thinks that, but there is a general sense among some folks that that’s all today is.

Same thing flipped around for Mount Union. We can just assume because they’re here and they’re UMU they automatically have it won. My pick is based on having watched the two teams all season, and the semifinal games extensively.

As for the idea that the pundits stand to lose much, that’s pure hogwash. Hardly anybody remembers the picks after the games (My Stagg picks are barely over .500, but I think that’s good because it means we’ve had competitive championship games without an easily predicted winner). Everyone remembers the big plays, and for the guys in the game, it’s a rest-of-their-life type memory they’re about to make.

It’s all about them. The picks are only good to kill time and build suspense until kickoff. The rest is up to the participants.

Join us for the webcast, and the postgame podcast if you will. Appreciate all your support this week and this season. Makes the effort on our end worth it, to know you enjoy it all.

Hoping for a game today that actually makes me ponder whether UMHB is not No. 2.

I’ve seen them in three playoff games now. The Burke INTs against UMHB I can excuse, as they’re good plays by a great D as much as bad decisions by the QB.

The fumbles are tough. I’ll be curious to see the division of carries between Simon, Skilliter and Lattimore today. Some have fumbled more than others, and all three seem to be different style runners. I wonder if Skilliter wasn’t also a starting CB would he get the lion’s share of the carries.

Coach:
Both teams have great schemes and know how to make adjustments. Caruso is building something in St. Paul. But Kehres is the clear favorite here. He’s been here too many times and his experience carries them. – Edge: MOUNT UNION

Quarterback:
Both teams have first year, sophomore starters. Both have lead their teams unusually well for underclassmen. Both have never experienced a loss. Both are mobile, dual threats. But Burke is further along in his development, more efficient and makes bigger plays more consistently. O’Connell is a talent, but he’s also been prone to turnovers, albeit earlier in the year. – Edge: MOUNT UNION

Offense:
Both teams are very balanced. UST is more of a ball control, grind you down with their big O-Line/double TE’s and the run game version of balanced. Mount is explosive, spreads the field and has a phenomenal passing game with multiple targets. Mount also has a load of Seniors on this side of the ball, where UST has a load of underclassmen. – Edge: MOUNT UNION

Defense:
Mount simply doesn’t give up points. They have exceptional team speed, cover the edge and Driscoll at safety is all over the field covering the few mistakes the front 7 might make. UST has a physical front 7 made up of very good defensive linemen and playmaking LB’s. Their secondary is explosive, and might not have the individual star power of a Driscoll, but is full of very good players like Oji. Edge – PUSH

Skill Positions:
UST has a number of quality players at RB, WR and TE. They spread the ball around and make you cover a number of options. Their running back, while young, is probably better than anyone playing for Mount. Mount has the best WR in DIII and a collection of receiving options that are its most complete/complimentary in years. Their running backs are solid and do what Mount needs them to do. The Purple Raiders speed on the edge is remarkable. Edge – MOUNT

Special Teams:
Both teams are capable. UST probably has more experience on kick returns and punt coverage, simply from having to utilize these elements more during the course of the season. Not a knock, per se, since they probably played the tougher 14 games to get to this point. Mount has a great punt block scheme. Edge – PUSH

Intangibles:
This UST team believes in itself. They might be young, but that hasn’t slowed them down yet. And Caruso will have them believing they can win. They also play an undeniable brand of team first football. The whole is greater than the parts. Mount is full of seniors, talented seniors, yet to taste Stagg Bowl victory. Edge – PUSH

It’s a no win for me. As a Bethel fan, I hate to think what UST winning the Stagg against Mount in their first attempt would do. As a d3 fan I’d love to see someone other than Mount/Whitewater win the Walnut & Bronze. While I might have to pinch my nose a bit, I do like the matchup and expect a good game. And there’s something sentimental about this years Mount Sr’s finally getting their ring (although it’s been good for them to learn to share a bit)

Look. I love the Purple Raiders, and I suffered through all those lean days back in the 60’s when we had trouble even beating Hiram (no offense intended — Hiram is a wonderful school and graduated my best friend). I was at Mount when Ken Wable came on board as coach, and it wasn’t long after than that the incomparable Larry Kehres took charge. And what a ride it’s been since then.

Last week, watching ESPN3, I nearly had a heart attack in the fourth quarter. Best fourth quarter of any game ever! I have to admit I felt bad for the Mary Hardin Baylor players — they would have made a great national championship team.

But tonight, please, please, please. Let it be a good game but not as close at last week. If we turn the ball over another half dozen or so times and lose the game, then congrats to the Tommies. If we play our best and win by four touchdowns, it is well deserved for our terrific seniors and the rest of the team. Just please, don’t let it be another heart-stopper.

Lattimore has probably the best combination of size and speed. He typically starts the game and plays until he fumbles or is winded and needs a breather. Lately, he has fumbled early so hasn’t seen much playing time (Kehres does not tolerate mistakes)

Skilliter is a bit smaller but has good field vision, is tough and very quick. He is usually the first option when Lattimore leaves the field. Skilliter had two fumbles last Saturday but has taken care of the ball much better than TJ Lattimore. The first was a muffed punt and the other was a fumble in the fourth quarter after UMU had tied the game, stopped UMHB on downs and were beginning to move towards a score.

Simon is the biggest of the three and is a very hard nosed runner. He also has deceptive speed when hitting the open field. The third to enter the game, he wears down defenses with his style of running.

With games out of reach, the fourth and fifth option are Mason Minnich and Drew Prendergast. Underclassmen but with lots of potnetial and game time experience.

I don’t see much of a change in the rotation but Simon may get some more carries tonight depending on how the others take care of the ball. Do not know that for a fact – just a hunch.

Unfortunately, can’t make it to Salem tonight but already have a watch party set up (pizza, beer, the whole nine yards). Looking forward to an entertaining game!!

Even if we all agreed that both teams were equal on offense and defense…Mount Union owns Special Teams. Chris Denton has been quiet of late and I expect something big from him on returns and also expect difference-making plays again by our punt rush.