Guy Three (Jason Johnson) doesn't strike anyone out, ether, but his BABIP those three seasons are .311, .314, and .300, which is just on the high side of "normal." He's cut his WHIP/9 down each year by cutting his walk rate, and when he gives up hits, they're less likely to leave the park (a HR/9 of 1.5 for Elarton is truly bad). For those fans of trend analysis, Johnson's GB/FB ratios from way back: 0.69, 0.83, 0.92, 1.09, 1.18, 1.31, 1.67, 1.74. I'm not sure if that's especially meaningful, but to turn from an extreme flyball pitcher to a significant groundball pitcher is probably pretty weird.

Now, it's been floated that Johnson's stamina is in question, and that he slows down in the back half of the year. First of all, the man throws 200 innings a year and never misses a start, averaging about 6 1/3 IP per start last season. How much stamina are you asking for? Second, if Johnson falls apart (which I consider unlikely), then bring up Sowers for a few starts. I see no big problem here.

For what it's worth, Johnson's PECOTA percentile graph pretty much sits on top of the league average projection. He is Average Man.