THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco, CA (415) FAX: (415) Release #2530 Release Date: Thursday, April 7, 2016 TRUMP LEADS CRUZ IN CALIFORNIA BY SEVEN POINTS. REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN PREFERENCES COULD SPLIT THE STATE'S ALLOCATION OF DELEGATES TO THE GOP CONVENTION. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) The latest Field Poll finds businessman Donald Trump leading Texas Senator Ted Cruz by seven points among likely voters in this state's Republican presidential primary. Trump is currently the choice of 39% of this state's likely GOP voters, while 32% support Cruz. Ohio Governor John Kasich trails in third at 18%, while 11% are undecided or intend to vote for someone else. The poll finds support for Trump and Cruz varying widely across major regions of the state. This is significant since 159 of California's 172 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be determined by who wins the most votes within each of the state's 53 congressional districts. While the poll cannot estimate who is leading within each congressional district, it does show that Trump is leading in two regions, while Cruz leads in two others. Should these regional differences persist, it would dilute the delegate advantages accrued by the winner of the June 7 California primary. Another noteworthy feature of the poll is that many of Trump's current supporters in this state are the same voters who also backed another political outsider, Arnold Schwarzenegger, during his successful campaign for governor in California's historic 2003 recall election. Voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger in 2003 prefer Trump over Cruz nearly three to one. The contentiousness of this year's Republican presidential campaign has created deep divisions within the state's GOP rank-and-file. According to the poll, nearly four in ten California Republicans (38%) say they would be dissatisfied or upset were Trump to become their party's nominee, and nearly as many (34%) say this about Cruz. This divisiveness is also on display when GOP voters are asked what their party should do if Trump, who has led his Republican rivals in delegates throughout the campaign, fails to achieve the majority needed to capture the nomination at the GOP convention on the first ballot. Were this to happen, about half of the state's Republicans (52%) feel their party should award the nomination to Trump, while 48% would support nominating someone else or give a qualified answer. The poll also finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a large 28-point advantage over Trump, and a 23- point lead over Cruz, in general election trial heats among the overall California electorate.

2 Thursday, April 7, 2016 Page 2 Trump leads GOP primary statewide by seven, but support varies significantly by region At present, 39% of likely GOP voters in California are supporting Trump, 32% back Cruz, and 18% favor Kasich. However, there are wide differences in preferences among Republican voters across major regions of the state. The poll finds Trump holding the lead among likely GOP primary voters in two regions the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, and those living in the nine-county Southern California region outside of Los Angeles County. Cruz is preferred over Trump among voters in Los Angeles County and those living in the state's vast, but sparsely populated interior that includes the Central Valley and the Sierra mountain region. Support for Kasich is more evenly dispersed across the state, although he is somewhat more competitive among Republican voters in the San Francisco Bay Area than in other regions. Table 1 Preferences in California's Republican presidential primary (among likely voters statewide and by region) Others/ Trump Cruz Kasich undecided Total GOP likely voters statewide 39% Region Los Angeles County 29% Other Southern California 45% San Francisco Bay Area* 39% Central Valley/Sierras 33% * Small sample base. Preferences for Trump and Cruz vary across a wide range of other Republican subgroups The poll finds a significant "gender gap" in GOP voter preferences, with Trump leading Cruz among men by seventeen points and Cruz preferred over Trump among women by four points. There are also big differences in support by age, with Cruz leading Trump by nine points among GOP voters under age 50 and Trump comfortably ahead among seniors age 65 or older. Trump also bests Cruz by eight points among white non-hispanics, while Latino Republicans favor Cruz over Trump by three points. GOP voters with no more than a high school education are backing Trump over Cruz, while Republicans with a post graduate education are dividing their preferences among Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Another significant difference between the Republican voters now backing Trump and those backing Cruz relates to how they reported voting in California's historic 2003 gubernatorial recall election, in which political outsider Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected. Republican voters who say they backed Schwarzenegger in 2003 support Trump over Cruz nearly three to one (54% to 21%). By contrast, California Republicans who say they backed another candidate in the recall election are supporting Cruz over Trump 46% to 27%.

4 Thursday, April 7, 2016 Page 4 Many Republicans would be upset or dissatisfied with Trump or Cruz as the GOP nominee The poll also asked GOP voters how they would feel if either Trump or Cruz were to become their party's nominee for president. The results indicate that relatively large proportions of this state's Republicans greater than one in three would not be satisfied in either case. Were Trump to win the nomination 58% of GOP voters say they would be enthusiastic or satisfied with him as the Republican nominee, but 38% would be upset or dissatisfied. If Cruz were to become the GOP nominee, 61% would be enthusiastic or satisfied and 34% would be upset or dissatisfied. Current GOP voter enthusiasm for Cruz as their party's nominee has declined since January, when The Field Poll found 74% of the state's Republicans saying they would be satisfied or enthusiastic with him as their standard-bearer, and just 21% who said they would be dissatisfied or upset. Table 3 Voter reactions were Trump or Cruz to become the Republican Party's presidential nominee (among likely GOP voters in California) April 2016 January 2016 Trump Enthusiastic 31% 24% Satisfied 27 }58% 31 }55% Dissatisfied }38% }43% Upset No opinion 4 2 Cruz Enthusiastic 27% 34% Satisfied 34 }61% 40 }74% Dissatisfied Upset 15 }34% 7 }21% No opinion 5 5 What the GOP should do if Trump has the most delegates, but fails to win the majority needed to win nomination at the convention on the first ballot This year's unusually contentious Republican primaries and caucuses will reach a climax on June 7, when California and four other states hold their presidential primaries. But as that day approaches, the possibility exists that Trump, who has led his Republican rivals in delegates throughout the campaign, will fail to achieve the majority needed to capture the presidential nomination at the GOP convention on the first ballot. When asked what the GOP should do if this were to happen, Republican voters are again divided. About half (52%) feel the party should award the nomination to Trump if he were to have the most delegates but was short of the majority needed for nomination on the first ballot. However, 48% feel

5 Thursday, April 7, 2016 Page 5 otherwise, with 36% saying the party should choose someone other than Trump as their nominee and 12% offering a qualified response. Nearly all of Trump's supporters (89%) feel the party should award him the nomination if he has the most delegates going to the convention. However, among Republicans not backing Trump, only small proportions feel this way. Table 4 What the Republican Party should do if Trump has the most delegates but fails to have the majority needed to win nomination at the convention on the first ballot (among likely GOP voters in California) Should choose Trump as the party's nominee Total likely GOP voters Trump supporters Cruz supporters Kasich supporters 52% 89% 34% 21% Should pick someone else Depends/not sure Likely GOP primary voters view both Trump and Cruz more favorably than unfavorably, but by relatively narrow margins When likely voters in the state's Republican primary are asked to give their overall impressions of the two leading GOP presidential contenders, more voters say they hold positive than negative impressions of each, but by relatively narrow five-to-four margins. When asked about Trump, 53% of the state's likely GOP primary voters view him favorably, while 43% hold an unfavorable opinion. Voter ratings of Cruz are only slightly more positive 54% favorable and 39% unfavorable. Republican primary voter assessments of Trump have not changed much since January. However, the impressions that California Republicans have of Cruz have declined over this same period.

6 Thursday, April 7, 2016 Page 6 Table 5 Trend of voter image ratings of Trump and Cruz (among likely GOP voters in California) April 2016 January 2016 Trump Favorable 53% 51% Unfavorable No opinion 4 4 Cruz Favorable 54% 69% Unfavorable No opinion 7 11 Both Trump and Cruz are viewed very negatively by the state's overall electorate While likely GOP primary voters view both Trump and Cruz more positively than negatively, both Republican contenders receive highly unfavorable appraisals among the state's overall voting electorate. When asked their opinions of Trump, three in four voters statewide (74%) report holding an unfavorable view, while just 22% have a positive impression. When asked to assess Cruz, 64% rate him negatively and 25% positively. These very negative assessments prevail across all major regional, demographic and political subgroups of the overall California electorate other than Republicans and strong conservatives. The poll finds that women, Latinos, voters under age 40 and residents of the San Francisco Bay Area have lower regard for Trump than Cruz.

8 Thursday, April 7, 2016 Page 8 Clinton holds big leads over Trump and Cruz in general election match-ups among the overall California electorate If the GOP were to choose Trump or Cruz as their party's presidential standard-bearer and the Democrats were to nominate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Clinton would start the general election campaign with very large leads in California. When paired against Trump, 59% of the state's overall voting electorate would support Clinton, while just 31% would back Trump. Against Cruz, Clinton's lead is 55% to 32%. While preferences are highly partisan, voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Clinton over both Trump and Cruz by wide margins. Trump vs. Clinton Table 7 General election preferences pairing Democrat Hillary Clinton against Trump or Cruz in the November general election (among the overall California electorate) Total Democrats Republicans No party preference/ others Clinton 59% 84% 16% 64% Trump Undecided Cruz vs. Clinton Clinton 55% 81% 13% 55% Cruz Undecided

9 Thursday, April 7, 2016 Page 9 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The findings come from a Field Poll completed March 24 April 4, 2016 among 1,400 registered voters in California, including 558 Republicans considered likely to vote in the state's June Republican presidential primary election. The statewide sample was augmented among Republican voters to increase the number of interviews conducted among likely voters in the state's Republican primary. Interviews were administered by telephone in English and Spanish using live interviewers calling from the Davis Research central location call center in Calabasas. Individual voters were sampled at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter's name and telephone number had been selected, interviews were attempted with the voter on either their landline or cell phone depending on the source of the listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. In this survey, about two in three of all interviews (63%) were completed on a cell phone, while 37% were interviewed on a landline telephone. Up to four attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. After the completion of interviewing, the sample was weighted to align it to demographic and geographic characteristics of the state's voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall registered voter sample is ± 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, and is ± 4.0 percentage points for the sample of likely Republican primary voters. These estimates are based on survey findings in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., results at or near 50%). Percentages at or near either end of the tail of the distributions (i.e., results closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys of public opinion besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of this survey sought to minimize these other possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Field Poll receives financial support from leading California newspapers and television stations, who purchase the rights of first release to Field Poll reports in their primary viewer or readership markets. The Poll also receives funding from the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes, as well as from foundations, non-profit organizations, and others as part of the Poll's policy research sponsor program. Questions Asked ASKED OF REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO VOTE IN THE JUNE CALIFORNIA PRIMARY: I am going to read the names of some of the candidates who are running for the Republican nomination for President. If the June Republican primary for President in California were held today and the candidates were (NAMES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER), who would be your first choice? How would you feel if (CANDIDATE) were to become the 2016 Republican Party's nominee for president enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not upset, or upset? Donald Trump currently has the most delegates in the race to win the Republican presidential nomination. But, suppose that after all the primary elections are completed, Trump continues to lead, but does not have the majority needed to win the nomination at the Republican National Convention on the first ballot. If this were to happen, should the Republicans at the convention give the nomination to Trump or should they pick someone else as their nominee? ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS: Please tell me whether your opinion of the following Presidential candidates is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don't know enough about that person to have an opinion. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) Is your opinion of (NAME) favorable or unfavorable? Suppose that (Donald Trump) (Ted Cruz) is the Republican Party nominee and Hillary Clinton is the Democratic Party nominee for President. If the election were being held today and these were the candidates for President, would you vote for Republican (Donald Trump) (Ted Cruz) or Democrat Hillary Clinton? (THESE TWO QUESTIONS WERE ASKED IN RANDOM ORDER)

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 222 Sutter Street, Suite 700 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco,

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