Herald: Cubans not shifting

“You keep hearing about a liberalization of the vote with younger, second-generation Cubans. But the polls are not showing it,” Gamarra said. “Young Cubans are starting to look more Republican than their parents.”

That’s the last paragraph in a Herald story today. Of course it comes as no surprise to me and readers of Babalu Blog. We’ve been documenting the fantasy that over time Cubans are joining the fold of liberal Democrats, their rightful place as “Latinos,” a fantasy that has been propagated by pollsters, academics and media members (most notably the Herald itself). What makes the quote above interesting is that the man quoted, Eduardo Gamarra is, according to the article a non-Cuban Democrat.

The most optimistic of Democrat views is that Obama carried about a McGovernesque 35% of Florida’s Cuban-American vote in in 2008. I pegged that number at closer to 30%.

Political observers say that Obama, who did relatively well for a Democrat with second-generation Cuban-American voters in 2008, probably won’t be able to repeat the feat.