Thursday, November 5, 2015

2015 Baystate Marathon Results

Today writing this analysis is a breath of fresh air from my day to day work, though I will have to make it quick because I do have limited time to get this information out to you folks.

So, Baystate. Held in Lowell, Massahusetts. I had heard of this marathon before, however I didn't know much about it, and vaguely that it was in my home state (i.e. the state in which I grew up). I had, for a short time in my life, thought that I might study Meteorology and UMass Lowell was on my list of schools where I could do that. Lowell, from what I recall, is also a former manufacturing town, textiles and such.

Anyway, results...

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

66

274

24.09%

57

257

22.18%

F35-39

30

115

26.09%

33

119

27.73%

F40-44

24

113

21.24%

33

120

27.50%

F45-49

32

90

35.56%

25

76

32.89%

F50-54

15

45

33.33%

13

34

38.24%

F55-59

9

20

45.00%

7

21

33.33%

F60-64

1

6

16.67%

1

6

16.67%

F65-69

2

3

66.67%

2

3

66.67%

F70-74

0

0

0.00%

0

2

0.00%

F75-59

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

45

274

16.42%

32

230

13.91%

M35-39

26

131

19.85%

19

129

14.73%

M40-44

26

151

17.22%

31

137

22.63%

M45-49

31

116

26.72%

28

108

25.93%

M50-54

24

85

28.24%

24

75

32.00%

M55-59

22

61

36.07%

12

44

27.27%

M60-64

11

25

44.00%

15

31

48.39%

M65-59

4

8

50.00%

2

8

25.00%

M70-74

1

2

50.00%

4

7

57.14%

M75-59

0

1

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

Totals

369

1520

24.28%

338

1407

24.02%

It's a small race with a high rate of qualification, much like Steamtown. The rate of qualification held pretty steady however were fewer participants and in turn fewer qualifiers. This will exert more downward pressure on the predicted cutoff.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

28

7.59%

20

5.92%

1-2 minutes

23

6.23%

29

8.58%

2-3 minutes

34

9.21%

21

6.21%

3-4 minutes

17

4.61%

29

8.58%

4-5 minutes

25

6.78%

17

5.03%

5-10 minutes

96

26.02%

77

22.78%

10-20 minutes

88

23.85%

86

25.44%

20> minutes

58

15.72%

59

17.46%

Totals

369

338

The Squeaker Pack was nearly the same year over year. 34.42% and 34.32% in 2015.

Bonus data:

AG

Year

< 1 min

1 - 2 min

2 - 3 min

3 - 4 min

4 - 5 min

5 - 10 min

10 - 20 min

20 > min

F18-34

BAYSTATE2015

5.3%

12.3%

3.5%

10.5%

5.3%

26.3%

15.8%

21.1%

F18-34

BAYSTATE2014

12.1%

3.0%

6.1%

4.5%

6.1%

31.8%

21.2%

15.2%

F35-39

BAYSTATE2015

9.1%

6.1%

12.1%

3.0%

9.1%

30.3%

24.2%

6.1%

F35-39

BAYSTATE2014

3.3%

0.0%

10.0%

6.7%

10.0%

16.7%

23.3%

30.0%

F40-44

BAYSTATE2014

12.5%

4.2%

8.3%

12.5%

12.5%

20.8%

12.5%

16.7%

F40-44

BAYSTATE2015

6.1%

6.1%

6.1%

21.2%

9.1%

18.2%

21.2%

12.1%

F45-49

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

16.0%

40.0%

20.0%

F45-49

BAYSTATE2014

3.1%

9.4%

6.3%

3.1%

3.1%

28.1%

18.8%

28.1%

F50-54

BAYSTATE2015

7.7%

15.4%

0.0%

7.7%

0.0%

23.1%

15.4%

30.8%

F50-54

BAYSTATE2014

6.7%

6.7%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

33.3%

33.3%

20.0%

F55-59

BAYSTATE2014

11.1%

0.0%

11.1%

0.0%

0.0%

11.1%

33.3%

33.3%

F55-59

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

14.3%

14.3%

0.0%

14.3%

0.0%

42.9%

14.3%

F60-64

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

F60-64

BAYSTATE2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

F65-69

BAYSTATE2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

F65-69

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

0.0%

M18-34

BAYSTATE2014

13.3%

13.3%

4.4%

0.0%

6.7%

31.1%

24.4%

6.7%

M18-34

BAYSTATE2015

15.6%

6.3%

12.5%

6.3%

6.3%

37.5%

15.6%

0.0%

M35-39

BAYSTATE2015

5.3%

10.5%

0.0%

5.3%

10.5%

15.8%

42.1%

10.5%

M35-39

BAYSTATE2014

7.7%

3.8%

19.2%

3.8%

7.7%

26.9%

23.1%

7.7%

M40-44

BAYSTATE2014

3.8%

15.4%

7.7%

3.8%

11.5%

34.6%

19.2%

3.8%

M40-44

BAYSTATE2015

6.5%

9.7%

6.5%

9.7%

6.5%

22.6%

16.1%

22.6%

M45-49

BAYSTATE2014

9.7%

3.2%

22.6%

6.5%

3.2%

25.8%

25.8%

3.2%

M45-49

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

10.7%

0.0%

10.7%

3.6%

7.1%

25.0%

42.9%

M50-54

BAYSTATE2015

4.2%

4.2%

8.3%

12.5%

0.0%

37.5%

20.8%

12.5%

M50-54

BAYSTATE2014

4.2%

8.3%

8.3%

0.0%

0.0%

33.3%

37.5%

8.3%

M55-59

BAYSTATE2014

0.0%

9.1%

18.2%

9.1%

18.2%

13.6%

22.7%

9.1%

M55-59

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

0.0%

8.3%

0.0%

0.0%

16.7%

58.3%

16.7%

M60-64

BAYSTATE2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

9.1%

0.0%

0.0%

45.5%

45.5%

M60-64

BAYSTATE2015

6.7%

6.7%

6.7%

0.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

20.0%

M65-59

BAYSTATE2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

M65-59

BAYSTATE2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

50.0%

M70-74

BAYSTATE2015

25.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

25.0%

M70-74

BAYSTATE2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

New cutoff prediction will be the next post, but I think the above is pointing to more downward pressure and we should be seeing a lower cutoff with these numbers.