Forecasters See Improved Prospects for Growth

Philadelphia, Pa. - The 34 participants in the third-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today, have made upward revisions to their expectations for rate of growth in GDP over the next four years. They project growth this quarter at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, up from 0.4 percent in the last survey.

Their expections for unemployment this year have inched up from an average of 9.1 to 9.2. Unemployment is seen rising to 9.6 percent next year. The forecasters see unemployment falling in 2011 and 2012 — but to levels higher than they predicted previously. Unemployment will average 8.9 percent in 2011, up from 8.7 percent in the last survey, and 8.0 percent in 2012, up from 7.7 percent. For more details, listen to an interview with our analyst.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

To arrange an interview with an analyst, contact Katherine Q. Dibling, the Bank's senior media representative, at (215) 574-4119. The next survey will be released at 10 a.m., Tuesday, November 17, 2009, and will be made available on our website.