Opinion: Can Bush Build His Global Coalition?

CAN BUSH REALLY BUILD THE INTERNATIONAL
COALITION FOR HIS GLOBAL WAR?

Muqtedar Khan,
Ph.D.

The kind of alliance needed to fight
the global war against invisible enemies that the US plans,
needs close and sustained cooperation from several key
players. Can the US build and sustain such an
alliance?

The formative challenges will entail the
aligning of interests of diverse nations with those of the
United States. This is not an easy task since some of the
key players whose cooperation is imperative, such as
Pakistan, Iran and Syria have had adversarial relations with
the US in the recent past. All these states currently have
US sanctions imposed against them for pursuing what they
perceive as their legitimate national interests.

US
sanctions against Iran punish it for eliminating the enemies
of Iran overseas. Now the US seeks Iranian cooperation to do
the same. US sanctions against Syria are for its support for
Hezbollah that Syria saw as essential for driving Israel out
of Lebanon and Golan Heights. US sanctions against Pakistan
were imposed due to its pursuit of nuclear and ballistic
technology, which for Pakistan is crucial to balance India.
The US has actively undermined the national interests of
these states, in some cases for decades, and now hopes that
overnight these states will align their interests with those
of the US.

This seems a bit unlikely, unless the US makes
it worth their while. This raises the question -- how far
will the US accommodate the needs of other states to ensure
their consistent cooperation?

Will US drop the sanctions
against Pakistan? Will Iran and Syria be dropped from the
list of rogue states? After all how can US allies against
terror also be on US list of state sponsors of terrorism?
How will Israel and the powerful Israeli lobby in the US
respond to these changes in US policy?.

Demanding the full
support of Pakistan, which includes access to intelligence,
surrogate diplomacy, and permission to use its air space and
bases to launch an attack against Afghanistan if necessary,
will require more than loan guarantees and lifting of
sanctions. Pakistan risks widespread discontent, split in
the military establishment, a refugee crisis and even an
Islamist uprising by meeting US demands. The US will have to
convince Pakistan that they will neither abandon it nor
ignore its legitimate national interests.

Is the US ready
to make such a promise to Pakistan? More importantly can it
fulfill such a promise? Will the US look the other way if in
future Pakistan acquires advanced military technology from
China? Or will the US now guarantee Pakistan’s technological
balance of power with India? Pakistan will surely seek an
increased US participation in their dispute with India over
Kashmir. So far the US has maintained a safe distance from
this potentially Palestine like scenario. This may change
given the criticality of Pakistan’s cooperation in the
initial US response and its future assault on anti-US
elements in the region.

The second phase of the US
war on terror entails the systematic identification and
elimination of the so-called terror infrastructure. The
project to begin with seems very dubious. The US is taking
the word of its intelligence community and Israeli
authorities about the existence of this invisible empire. We
must be cautious. These same sources were clueless about the
horrific attacks that took place on Sept. 11th. Now these
same sources wax ad nauseum about the extent, depth and
scope of the perpetrators’ assets.

Nevertheless, to be
successful in the second phase, the US will have to enjoy a
great deal of confidence and cooperation from “moderate”
Arab regimes. If the second phase follows a massive attack
on Afghanistan including deaths of many innocent civilians,
then Arab support may not be forthcoming. Cooperation with
the US will put these regimes at risk and contribute to
their instability further complicating the conditions in the
Middle East.

One thing is for sure. If the US continues to
support, arm and finance the terror that Israeli military
frequently unleashes against Palestinians, the Arab regimes
will not cooperate. It was only a month ago that they chose
to scuttle the UN conference on racism rather than defer to
US demands to compromise their stance on Israel. This leads
us to the most fundamental question – is the US willing to
reconsider its uncritical support for Israel to ensure the
realization of its own national interests and national
security?

Bush’s global war on terrorism requires a global
alliance. It will entail the restructuring of many existing
geopolitical equations. Can this administration muster the
diplomatic finesse and the domestic political consensus it
will take?

- Dr. Muqtedar Khan is Director of
International Studies at Adrian College in Michigan.
mkhan@adrian.edu, http://www.glocaleye

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