Four Reasons Why Romney Might Still Win

Robert
Reich is one of the nation’s leading experts on work
and the economy, is Chancellor’s Professor of Public
Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the
University of California at Berkeley. He has served in
three national administrations, most recently as
secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton.

Recent Posts

Can Romney possibly recover? A survey conducted between Sept. 12
and Sept. 16 by the Pew Research Center — before the “47
percent victim” video came to light – showed Obama ahead of
Romney 51% to 43% among likely voters.

That’s the biggest margin in the September survey prior to a
presidential election since Bill Clinton led Bob Dole, 50% to 38%
in 1996.

And, remember, this recent poll was done before America watched
Romney belittle almost half the nation.

For the last several days I’ve been deluged with calls from my
inside-the-beltway friends telling me “Romney’s dead.”

Hold it. Rumors of Romney’s demise are premature for at least
four reasons:

1. Between now and Election Day come two jobs reports
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – October 5 and November 2.
If they’re as bad as the last report, showing only 96,000 jobs
added in August (125,000 are needed just to keep up with
population growth) and the lowest percentage of employed adults
since 1981, Romney’s claim the economy is off track becomes more
credible, and Obama’s that it’s on the mend harder to defend.

With gas prices rising, corporate profits shrinking, most of
Europe in recession, Japan still a basket case, and the Chinese
economy slowing, the upcoming job reports are unlikely to be
stellar.

2. Also between now and Election Day are three presidential
debates, starting October 3. It’s commonly thought Obama will win
them handily but that expectation may be very wrong – and could
work against him. Yes, Romney is an automaton — but when the
dials are set properly he can give a good imitation of a human
engaged in sharp debate. He did well in the Republican primary
debates.

Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how
he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary
debates. And he hasn’t been in a real-live debate for four years;
Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them.

3. During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama
forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the
Romney campaign and Romney’s super PACs, but other super PACS
aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes,
and non-profit “social welfare” organizations like the Chamber of
Commerce, Karl Rove’s “Crossroads,” and various Koch-brothers
political fronts – all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and
radio spots, much of it spreading lies and distortions. Some of
this money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives — to phone
banks and door-to-door canvassing to identify favorable voters,
and vans to bring them to the polling stations.

It’s an easy bet they’ll far outspend Obama and his allies. I’ve
heard two-to-one. The race is still close enough that a
comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the
difference – which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to
polling stations can be critical.

4. As they’ve displayed before, the Republican Party will do
whatever it can to win — even if it means disenfranchising
certain voters. To date, 11 states have enacted voter
identification laws, all designed by Republican legislatures and
governors to dampen Democratic turnout.

The GOP is also encouraging what can only be termed “voter
vigilante” groups to “monitor polling stations to prevent fraud”
– which means intimidating minorities who have every right to
vote. We can’t know at this point how successful these efforts
may be but it’s a dangerous wildcard. And what about those
Diebold voting machines?

So don’t for a moment believe “Romney’s dead,” and don’t be
complacent. The hard work lies ahead, in the next seven
weeks.

And even if Obama is reelected, more hard work begins after
Inauguration Day – when we must push him to be tougher on the
Republicans than he was in his first term, and do what the nation
needs.