10/29/2013

Talking Oscars: The Supporting Races

2013 has been a decent year for movies so far, but
it’s been an even greater year for performances. This year could, or should we say will, see a similar logjam that squeezes
someone out of recognition. Just look at August:
Osage County, which could easily score four acting nominations or none at
all. Meryl Streep seems firm to be campaigned in the lead category, but the
ambiguous placement of Julia Roberts could cancel out Streep if they split the
lead vote or bump out Margo Martindale from the supporting race. Martindale
seems like she’d be a shoo-in if The Weinstein Company campaigned Roberts in
the lead category in which she belongs. Julianne Nicholson seems like a dark
horse for August given the
competition from the ensemble, but votes for “best in show” seem diverse among
the supporting (or “supporting”) players and she could siphon enough votes in a
hypothetical situation that made room for anyone who had enough support. A few
extra names in the Best Supporting Actress category, for example, would
demonstrate the quality of work on display in 2013, as opposed to a ballot that
omitted the co-stars of August: Osage County.

There are so many names circulating around the
acting categories this year. Here’s a look at the crowded field that could make
the four acting races some of the most competitive campaigns in years,
beginning with the supporting races:

Best
Supporting Actress:

We might as well continue with Best Supporting
Actress and the ladies of August: Osage
County. It seems increasingly likely that Roberts will in fact go
supporting. If she does, she might have an edge like Christoph Waltz did last year by competing in the supporting category when his work in Django Unchained was by all regards a lead role. (Roberts has slightly less screentime in August than Waltz does in Django.) The Weinstein Company has yet to post its category placement for
all the films on its slate, but the appearance of Julia Roberts at the Hollywood Film Awards to accept her prize for Best Supporting Actress
indicates that Harvey is likely to push Roberts in the spot that was announced
for Meryl months ago. The Hollywood Film Awards are generally a dubious affair
of glitz and glamour that make the Golden Globes look like New York literary
awards, but their early placement in the season serves as a handy bellwether
for who is willing to do what. The awards are the first stop on the campaign
trail, and there’s no better way to start than by announcing the race you’re
running in. One should also note the use of language in the trades, which frequently cite "supporting actress Julia Roberts". It might be a question of semantics, but the talk of industry insiders if often something to keep an eye on.

Equal reason to switch Roberts for Martindale comes
from the newly listed running time on press materials for August: Osage County, which notes the film as being trimmed to 119
minutes from the cut of 131 minutes that screened at TIFF. It makes sense that
the distributor is nipping away Roberts’s screentime to erase confusion as to
whether she or Streep is the lead. (Cutting Roberts’sperformance could just as easily help Martindale, though.) Oddly
enough, however, the much fussed about ending for the film that is original to
the adaptation—and ends August on Roberts’s
Barbara rather than on Streep’s Violet—seems to remain intact during recent
screenings. See, for example, the comments section of the review from Word on the Streep,
which notes that the film recently screened with the “Barbara ending” (although
rumors still circulate on various online sources that the film will be cut to
the “Violet ending”). Even August: Osage
County co-star Misty Upham prefers
the “Violet ending”!

Lupita Nyong'o as Patsey in 12 Years a Slave

If Roberts and/or Martindale find room in the Best
Supporting Actress race, they’ll probably face off with fellow Weinstein Co. rep
Oprah Winfrey. Oprah seemed like the frontrunner when Lee Daniels’ The Butler opened in August; however, she recently
fell to second place in a roundup of experts’ predictions on Gold Derby. Moving into Oprah’s turf is newcomer Lupita
Nyong’o, who has been moving audiences since 12 Years a Slave hit the festival circuit. Slave, like August boasts
some formidable contenders, as co-stars Sarah Paulson, Adepero Oduye, and Alfre
Woodard are also being tossed around as dark horses. Oduye’s Eliza certainly
has the most powerful role in the book by Solomon Northup, while Paulson’s a
rising star thanks to American Horror
Story. (I haven’t had a chance to see the film yet but will this week.) None
of the three actresses seems to be garnering the same attention as Nyong’o,
though, nor does their supporting seem comparable to the varying verdicts of August: Osage County. If any film seems
likely to score two nominations in the category, August might stand the better chance.

Also shaking things up since the last round of
predictions is Scarlett Johansson’s performance in Her, which caused quite a stir at the New York Film Festival
earlier this month. (As did the film itself.) Johansson, who is also great in Don Jon,is being praised for her voice performance as the virtual love
interest of Joaquin Phoenix. Scarlett’s sultry voice is being dubbed a
potential game-changer for Oscar history, as voice-over performances have
struggled to realize buzz into Oscar nominations. (Recall the support for Eddie
in Shrek or Ellen DeGeneres in Finding Nemo.) Her producer Megan Ellison tweeted in response to Deadline’s musings by noting that
Johansson is indeed eligible and will be the subject of a campaign.

Mixed opinions regarding ScarJo’s campaign are sure
to happen, and some performers of August and
Slave could cancel each other out, thus
freeing up space for one of the dark horses trotting through the field of
contenders. The Weinstein Company could easily have three films in the
category, since Octavia Spencer seems increasingly likely to be the best shot
that Fruitvale Station has at a nomination.
(Lead actor Michael B. Jordan faces stiff competition, as will be discussed
shortly.) Spencer’s heartbreaking turn caught some attention on the campaign recently
when it was noted that The Weinstein Company accidently mailed out screeners requesting
that voters consider Spencer and co-star Melonie Diaz in the lead category. TWC
was quick to correct the error, although it never seemed likely that one could
confuse Spencer’s role as a lead. (It’s no Julia Roberts situation.)

I’m personally rooting for Blue Jasmine’s Sally Hawkins. Her remarkable turn alongside Cate
Blanchett’s showstopping lead is a worthy, sympathetic Stella to Blanchett’s
deliciously unbalanced Blanche. Attention for Blanchett’s performance is bound to
have voters watching the film, and Hawkins could benefit from one of those
scenarios in which a worthy candidate profitsfrom the support of a frontrunner à la Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nomination for Crazy Heart.Anything
could happen since Best Supporting Actress is the most open race of them all.

Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club

Best
Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor is the category that has seen
the least excitement during the past few weeks, aside from confirming what
seemed to be safe bets during the festival circuit. It’s old news by now that
Michael Fassbender won’t campaign for 12 Years a Slave
(due to a busy schedule), but like Mo’Nique did in 2009, he could easily win
the Oscar on merit from the raves he’s drawing for his performance. Also riding
solid on the buzz he established at Toronto is Dallas Buyers Club co-star Jared Leto, who might even be outshining
lead actor Matthew McConaughey in the eyes of some reviewers. Dallas is Leto’s first onscreen role in
four years since Mr. Nobody, so an
Oscar nomination would make for one hell of a comeback.

McConaughey could join his DBC co-star on the supporting ballot if one looks to the support
that has been building since the actor’s own recent comeback. McConaughey
probably just fell one spot or two away from the ballot last year for his
award-winning performance in Magic Mike,
but he has at least two roles to give his fans some insurance should he miss
out on the lead ballot. McConaughey’s Mud
was the first screener sent out to voters in the season, which often proves
beneficial. See recent cases where early mail-outs for indie darlings like Frozen River or Animal Kingdom brought well-deserved nominations for Melissa Leo
and Jacki Weaver, respectively, as did an early start for an aggressive
campaign for A Better Life’s Demián
Bichir. Mud has its fans, but a
reminder might not be enough. (It’s good, but is it that good?) The screener might simply give McConaughey a boost for Dallas, or for his supporting role in The Wolf of Wall Street, which looks
like a hoot from a trailer.

James Gandolfini as Albert and Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Eva in Enough Said

On the other hand, buzz has been rising steadily
for James Gandolfini since Enough Said
premiered at TIFF and earned the late actor some enthusiastic reviews. The
sentiment of losing Gandolfini only seems to be adding to the feeling that he
would have been a contender for the prize in this surprisingly sweet turn from
Tony Soprano. It’s the kind of Oscar story that gives an actor an added push.

Less likely to get a push from a ‘story’ however,
is Tom Hanks’s performance as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. Banks, which will be discussed further in the
Best Actress category, is the second major contender to debut since the last
round of predictions, as the film closed the London Film Festival last week.
Hanks has earned generally positive notices for his performance as Walt Disney,
but the film’s overall portrayal of Walt Disney has many writers saying that
Walt Disney studios plays fast and loose with the facts and offers a sanitized
caricature of its own namesake. (Admittedly, nobody should be surprised that
Disney gives a family-friendly portrait of Mr. Disney for its big Christmas
release.) On the other hand, Indiewire
calls Hanks one of the only “sure things” of the race alongside Michael
Fassbender. That doesn’t seem to be the consensus, though, as a review
on the very same site says that the performance might be “too slight” to make
the cut. Maybe Hanks will just have to make room for his Captain Phillips co-star Barkhad Abdi. If Abdi steals a generous
nomination, he can taunt, “I’m the Captain now.”