June 2, 2010

Ely’s fastball averages just 87 mph and the pitch is far from overwhelming, causing just 3% swinging strikes (whiffs per pitch). But he can get it in and around the zone enough to avoid walks and get ahead in the count. While the average pitcher goes with a slider or curve with two strikes to finish off an at-bat Ely goes to his change. Even against RHBs he throws the change 20% of the time in two-strike counts (against LHBs 45%).

And the results are very good, the pitch has a 28% swinging strike rate (whiffs per pitch). Part of the success of his changeup against lefties is its location; he keeps it perfectly located on the outer half of the plate, where the results are best. …

May 28, 2010

… True to the scouting reports, Ely isn’t lighting up radar guns — his fastball is averaging 87.9 MPH. However, he’s not using the pitch much (about 32 percent), and when he does, he gets strikes (70.1 percent, 64.4% MLB average). Ely’s bread-and-butter is his changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, he has pulled the string about 41 percent of the time. The change has garnered a strike 74.2 percent (60.7% MLB average), and it has been whiffed at 21.6 percent (12.6% MLB average). He’s also mixing in mid-80’s sliders/cutters, as well as a slooow 70 MPH curve.

Despite his modest stuff, Ely has managed to get swinging strikes 9.1 percent to this point (8-8.5% MLB average), while getting batters to chase his pitches out of the zone 29.1% (27.7% MLB average). …

Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate.

Pitch Type LWTS correspond to how many runs were likely to score on a particular pitch based on average run expectancy when each pitch was thrown and what happened as a result. Negative scores indicate more effective pitches.

Time to Plate is the time, in seconds, that it takes an average pitch of this type to reach the plate. This is strongly correlated with velocity, but also factors in movement.

… Ely is from Harvey, Ill., a community about 20 miles from the North Side. And he is bringing his 3-1 record and stupefying control home.

But his proud dad won’t make the short drive. Being wheelchair-bound is part of the reason, given old Wrigley Field’s access issues. A small part. The bulk of it is that Mr. Ely is a fan of the city’s other team.

“It’s part mobility issues, because Wrigley isn’t wheelchair-friendly,” said the 24-year-old righty, “and partly because he’s a die-hard White Sox fan and he doesn’t come here.”

May 23, 2010

Guillen focuses on the contributions currently being made by Juan Pierre, who was acquired in the offseason deal sending Ely to the Dodgers, or Jake Peavy, who came over from San Diego last year for a four-hurler package involving Richard. The White Sox have a good track record of giving up the right Minor League talent to make the Major League team stronger.

“Every time we make a trade, I always say, ‘I could never have been a general manager because you have to take a chance on what the team wants and the team needs, and ignore feelings,'” Guillen said. “We knew John would be fine and we knew Clayton would be good, but we have a pretty good guy [in return for each trade].”

Pretty good? I’d say pretty bad. I see a 64 OPS+ and a 75 wRC+. Both numbers are smaller than 100.

ERA+: “ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An ERA+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.”

“tRA+ is equal to [((lgTRA – tRA`) / lgTRA) + 1] * 100. This formula puts tRA+ on the same scale as wOBA+’

“tRA involves assigning run and out values to all events under a pitcher’s control and coming up with an expected number of runs allowed and outs generated in a defense and park neutral environment. tRA is on a R/9 scale.”

FIP: “Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.”

xFIP: “Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and “normalizes” the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher’s future ERA.”

Ely, who turns 24 on Thursday, gave up five runs in the first three innings he pitched in the big leagues but hung on to last six innings in that debut against the Mets. He’s allowed only three runs in his last 15 2-3 innings, cutting his ERA to 3.86. He has 17 strikeouts and only three walks in is 18 2-3 innings, using his power changeup and Bugs Bunny curveball to make up for his fastball rarely touching 90 mph.

May 7, 2010

Juan Pierre’s slow start is becoming even more painful for White Sox fans: John Ely, the 2004 Homewood-Flossmoor who was the player to be named later in the deal that brought Pierre over from the Dodgers, tamed the Milwaukee Brewers in his second major-league start Thursday in Los Angeles.

April 27, 2010

Will the Dodgers promote John Ely to take the place of injured Vincente Padilla in their pitching rotation?

Padilla’s spot in the rotation comes up on Wednesday for the first time since he was shelved. The Dodgers are expected to purchase the contract of right-hander John Ely, whom they acquired from the Chicago White Sox in the Juan Pierre trade last December. Ely, who is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts for the Isotopes, will be making his major league debut.

“I can’t believe it,” Ely said via phone from Omaha. “I’m going to try and zone in and not look up (when he first toes the rubber). I’m sure I’m going to be nervous. If you’re not nervous, you better find a new profession. But I’ll be able to handle it.”

and on the trade:

“The trade has worked out real well,” Ely said. “I had a solid spring. I’ve thrown the ball well at Albuquerque. I know some of the guys in the Mets lineup. I’ll figure out a way to attack them.”

With the question marks surrounding Flowers’ ability to stay at catcher, the lack of top-of-the-rotation arms beyond Hudson, and dearth of overall depth, White Sox fans don’t have much to look forward to.

January 6, 2010

… Juan Silverio, INF: According to Bell, there was a bit of a discrepancy in Silverio’s papers over his age, so he ended up spending last year with the White Sox Dominican team. But Silverio was back for a great instructional league showing this past fall and might have physically outgrown the shortstop position.

“I’m not sure if he fits at shortstop or third base, but he has great hands and is a strong kid,” said Bell of Silverio, who will start 2010 with Class A Kannapolis. “We are happy to have him back. He has to be considered one of our higher-prospect kids.”

Jared Mitchell, OF: The potential leadoff man of the future, the 2009 first-round Draft pick has earned Bell’s endorsement as a potential top of the order standout.

“He’s freaky fast, strong and very athletic,” Bell said. “He’s a very intelligent kid. Very coachable.”

Don’t look for Mitchell to contribute at the big league level this year. Due to Mitchell’s reduced baseball experience as a two-sport athlete at LSU, Bell said the White Sox “will be slower with him then we would be with most No. 1 picks.”

Dayan Viciedo, 3B/1B: Look for Viciedo to play both third base and first base this season, probably starting the year for Triple-A Charlotte. Bell said the present reports out of Miami from bench coach Joey Cora and Minor League pitching coach Jose Bautista have been solid concerning Viciedo’s ongoing conditioning work and that Viciedo could contribute offensively at the big league level in 2010.

“Hopefully they won’t need him, but I think he surely can contribute if needed,” Bell said. “His feet need work defensively, and I don’t know if his footwork will ever be good enough at third. But the kid has great hands, and Dayan adjusts on the fly as well as any kid in the organization.”