Tundra Travel Management Strategy

December 2, 2004

The Problem:
A serious problem is confronting oil exploration in this state: the winter oil
exploration season is becoming ever shorter. The Department of Natural Resources,
Division of Mining, Land and Water (DNR) opens the North Slope tundra to exploration
when the ground is frozen enough that companies can explore over snow without
significantly damaging the tundra. But these openings were coming later and
later because of warming weather, regulatory changes, and changes in measuring
techniques. In fact, the winter exploration season has been effectively cut
in half since the early 1970s.

Shorter seasons have serious consequences to those who are trying to get the
work done. It's also a problem for oil production that relies on the exploration,
and for Alaskans who rely on the oil industry: in other words, for all of us.
We need to lengthen the season, but we need to do so in a way that respects
the environment.

Solving the Problem:
To solve this problem, DNR worked with the US Department of Energy to develop
scientifically valid, peer-reviewed research to find ways to extend the season
without compromising the environment. The study focuses on advancing opening
dates because 85% of the lost season length is due to later opening dates. The
study analyzes the changes on tundra test plots when various equipment used
for exploration were driven on the plots during various stages of tundra freeze
up and snow conditions. Much data has been collected from the test plots over
the course of a year and half. The results give us a statistical model of what
expected tundra disturbance will be experienced as the result of using various
vehicles in certain conditions.

Now that the study is complete, this document
addresses how DNR will incorporate the results into management decisions
for the 2004-2005 winter work season. The results are supportive of lengthening
the oil exploration and development season by providing an earlier tundra
opening date. This document also explains the transition from historical
tundra opening standards to new standards based on actual environmental conditions
that are scientifically related to limits of disturbance.

General Overview of the Study Results:
The DNR Tundra Model project found that the hardness of frozen ground, the depth
of snow cover, and the formation of hard snow slabs within the snow profile
influence resistance of tundra to disturbance by hydrocarbon exploration vehicles,
depending upon the vegetation community type. Also identified in the study were
certain trends in the development of winter time conditions of these ground
and snow characteristics that may be useful in interpreting the data to assist
management decisions.

Engineering literature cited in the study
suggests that hard frozen ground resists compression and ductile deformation.
The hardness of the ground increases with lower temperature, to a certain
point, after which frozen soil may be subject to fracture failure. The data
from the study sites, as well as that from the existing scientific literature,
suggests that the freeze-up and hardening of tundra ground exhibits a statistical
sinusoidal pattern in both the Coastal Plain and Foothills regions of the
North Slope. This means that there is a slow advent of ground hardness, followed
by a rapid increase in hardness, quickly tapering off to a slow increase
in hardness as winter progresses. Soil freeze up occurs from two directions
within the active layer. The first advance of ground freezing occurs at the
bottom of the active layer (nearest the permafrost) towards the surface.
After a several week lag time, air temperatures are sufficiently cool to
begin freezing the ground from the surface down. Temperatures remain fairly
constant within the soil profile for a period of two to four weeks as the
latent heat of soil water tempers the change in soil temperature. Once freeze
up is complete, the soil temperature drops markedly, leading to a quick increase
in ground hardness.

Once the hardness of the ground reaches this
point, represented by the top inflection point on the statistical sinusoidal
curve, the functional contribution of further hardness to resistance plateaus.
Thus, it appears no additional benefit in terms of increased resistance to
deformation/compression disturbance is realized through further cooling of
the ground.

Data from the University of Alaska Fairbanks
Geophysical Institute seems consistent with this observation. Soil temperature
arrays located within 1/8 mile of the coastal/wet sedge study site and 1/8
mile of the foothills/tussock tundra appear to show a similar freeze-up pattern
in the top foot of soil (See Table 1a,b).

According to results from the DNR study, the point at which functional hardness
reaches a plateau seems to be at approximately 75 drops per foot of ground penetration
with the DNR slide hammer in wet sedge meadow tundra and 25 drops per foot of
ground penetration in tussock tundra (See Table 2 a,b). As shown in these tables,
there was an accelerated freezing of the ground with corresponding increase
in ground hardness between November 13 and December 4. There was also a marked
decrease in the rate of change after December 4.

Table 1: Soil Temperature by Test Date in
a One Foot Profile (Temperature expressed in degrees Celsius at cm depths).

Snow deposition on the North Slope exhibits
a bimodal pattern with heavy snow early in the winter, followed by a long
period of cold dry conditions. Snow fall accumulation increases again late
in winter near the onset of spring with the renewed appearance of relatively
humid air masses. A stable snow depth that averaged 15 to 18 cm was present
over wet sedge tundra throughout the study period; an average of about 23-25
cm of snow was present throughout the study in the tussock tundra. The available
literature suggests that snow depth protects the tundra surface from mechanical
disturbance. However, lack of variability in snow depth over the course of
the DNR study prevented a thorough investigation of the degree of contribution
increasing snow depth provides. It does appear, though, that the level of
snow during the study experiments did make a substantial contribution to
disturbance resistance. What the minimum threshold is, and what level provides
the maximum contribution, is unknown at this time, but by requiring the average
minimum that was present for the study allows us to predict the tundra resistance.
(See Table 3a,b).

Table 3: Average Snow Depth by Treatment Date and Study Site (cm)

a. Coastal Plain

Date

Oct 30

Nov 13

Dec 04

Dec 18

Jan 05

Jan 20

Snow

15.24

12.58

16.00

15.52

16.03

18.65

b. Foothills

Date

Oct 30

Nov 13

Dec 04

Dec 18

Jan 05

Jan 20

Snow

23.28

27.96

22.21

29.77

28.7

27.88

Finally, the model found that snow slab thickness
provided a significant contribution toward tundra resistance to disturbance.
The thicker the snow slab, the less the degree of change recorded in depth
of active layer and change in soil moisture. No minimum threshold was found.

Tundra Opening Criteria
DNR intends to specify tundra opening criteria that will achieve the same
level of environmental protection realized over the course of the last 10
years. DNR was able to model anticipated levels of change with differing
combinations of snow and ground characteristics. After a review of study
results and the available scientific literature, DNR has established the
minimum combination of ground and snow conditions which are needed to achieve
the level of protection that past year's openings provided for the tundra
for both major ecosystems, the wet sedge tundra and the tussock dominated
tundra. Last year, DNR opened the East Coastal Tundra Opening Area December
23 rd , West Coastal Area January 9 th , and the Lower and Upper Foothills
on January 28 th .

Criteria: DNR will implement tundra opening for general cross country travel in
wet sedge tundra when a minimum 15 cm (6 inches) of snow cover is available
and ground hardness reaches a minimum of 75 drops of the slide hammer to
penetrate one foot of ground. At this combination of ground and snow conditions,
no significant change in the depth of active layer, soil moisture, or vegetation
composition and structure is anticipated.

DNR has determined that once a minimum threshold of 23 cm (9 inches)
of snow cover and a ground hardness of 25 drops of the slide hammer for
one foot of soil penetration has been attained, general tundra opening
in tussock tundra can proceed without a significant change in active layer
depth, soil moisture, or vegetation community composition and structure.

Although snow slab thickness has a significant effect on disturbance resistance,
there was not sufficient data to thoroughly explain the relationship. In
order to collect more data, DNR now requires the northern region staff to
measure snow slab thickness as a routine part of its North Slope field measurement
protocols. With additional data, DNR will evaluate its decision matrix to
determine if snow slab thickness can be effectively incorporated.

By identifying combinations of snow and ground hardness characteristics
and attendant disturbances associated with overland travel, DNR believes
it can effectively ensure a level of protection for tundra resources equal
to or greater than that attained under previous management while increasing
the time available for overland travel. For example, were conditions across
the North Slope last year like those found in the study sites, DNR is confident
it could have opened tundra to off road travel on December 4, 2003
and still attained the environmental protection benefits realized by the
more traditional dates. As a result, this could have increased exploration
time by up to 45 days without any increase in environmental disturbance effects.

Monitoring
It is imperative to verify this decision with real time field monitoring
to determine the accuracy of the model. Therefore, DNR employees will accompany
initial deployment of vehicles at the time of general tundra opening for
subsequent measurements regarding disturbance consequences. As a result,
DNR staff will field verify disturbance levels associated with this management
approach in the summer of 2005. These monitoring requirements must be a part
of the authorization pursuant to this management strategy. In addition, we
will continue to monitor the sites over several years to assess the resiliency
of the tundra.