Bryce Edwards: Political round-up: July 16

Kim Dotcom's shadow may be a factor in the Government's future. Photo / Twitter

Kim Dotcom's substantial shadow may be cast over the water claim and asset sales issues. With a police decision imminent on whether to prosecute John Banks for non-disclosure of donations from the Megaupload entrepreneur the government's majority could be under threat, at least for a few months, if Banks is convicted or resigns. None other than ex-National and ex-Act leader Don Brash raised the scenario on TVNZ's Q+A (read the transcript here or watch the panel discussion here), along with Greg Presland (How this Government may end) and Matt McCarten (John Key's mandate on asset sales leaking water).

National would probably win a by-election in Epsom but the process could leave them dependent on the Maori Party for a majority for up to three months. That would be a knee-trembling prospect for National at the moment, prompting Brash to suggest that Key could call an early election, which he would win by taking a strong line against the water claim.

While that scenario includes a lot of 'ifs', so do all of the other possible outcomes for the Government - good and bad. Audrey Young thinks it is inconceivable that National would negotiate a settlement without being forced to do so by an adverse court ruling, which could delay the sales until next year - see: Tide of water issue uncomfortably high. If the courts went against the Government Tracy Watkins says 'no one should be in any doubt that they would legislate' (see In deep on the water debate), which would likely end the coalition relationship with the Maori Party.

Watkins could make some money off that prediction with Mana leader Hone Harawira betting $100 on Q+A that Turia and Sharples won't walk - watch the interview here or read a transcript of the interview here. An unflattering Secret Diary Of Tariana Turia from Steve Braunias reveals that Harawira's money is safe, although pressure on them continues to mount with Maori Council spokesman Maanu Paul saying today it was 'crunch time' for the party: '"You either have mana or you have money." The Maori Party seemed more interested in money, he said....They're virtually useless at that table' - see: Turia and Sharples urged to ditch Key.

Just as the Mana leader is applying the blowtorch to his old party, ex-Act MP and ex-National candidate Stephen Franks similarly attacks National for conceding too much ground to Maori on the issue: 'I knew the Crown would probably pull its punches. I tried to encourage some of those with vital interests in the outcome (like generators) to pay for a world expert to come and give evidence. I'd have liked to help indigenise such evidence. It seems there is too much fear of being seen on the wrong side of fashion in these matters. So they could all be just watching another seabed and foreshore train wreck develop' - see: Maori claims to own water - the detail not mentioned.

Given the high stakes and risks, some sort of negotiated outcome still has to be the most likely outcome. Former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen, now a Treaty negotiator for Ngati Tuwharetoa, thinks 'from my perspective, the sooner the negotiation process is under way the better'. Tribunal or even court decisions would be of some assistance, 'but it's got to come down to discussion and negotiation one way or the other' - see: Adam Bennett's John Key: Waking the taniwha.

Making a deal that has approval across all Maori institutions will be a challenge. Morgan Godfrey continues his look at Maori power players, including the Federation of Maori Authorities - see: The rise of the Iwi Leaders Group. He wonders if the increasingly dominant Iwi leader's Group will act in the interests of all Maori into the future.

Maori also need to be culturally sensitive to the Prime Minister's heritage says Dave Armstrong: 'The futures trading floor is Mr Key's turangawaewae and he won't tolerate anything that gets in the way of his privatising kaupapa' - see: Why we are all talking about water.

* The fuzzy and opportunistic differentiation between Labour and National on many issues is a real problem for David Shearer, particularly in comparison to the Greens writes Fran O'Sullivan in Shearer lacks focus out of danger zone.

* Selling assets to prop up our capital markets and the Kiwisaver scheme in particular is mad says the How daft blog - see: Kiwisaver Con.

Get the news delivered straight to your inbox

Bryce Edwards is a lecturer in Politics at the University of Otago. He teaches and researches on New Zealand politics, public policy, political parties, elections, and political communication. His PhD, completed in 2003, was on 'Political Parties in New Zealand: A Study of Ideological and Organisational Transformation'. He is currently working on a book entitled 'Who Runs New Zealand? An Anatomy of Power'. He is also on the board of directors for Transparency International New Zealand.