Monday, 19 October 2015

This
is the First Installment of the Serial Strategic
Schema of Al-Qaeda.

The strategic schema of Al-Qaeda - and by extension, its insubordinate
and rival offshoot, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant (ISIS/ISIL) – is
a culmination of the processes of evolution of Modern Islamism and Offensive
Militant Jihad; coupled to pragmatic political maneuverings, rational social
actions, combat experiences, and, national and sub-national events (both within
and outside its controls); which have shaped the development of its pertinacious
struggle for the actualization of its definitive end goal - the establishment
of a Supranational Caliphate that would subordinate all Muslims under a
Salafist-interpreted Sharia constitution.

Al-Qaeda arose
from a series of events which impregnated Afghanistan and the Middle East with
the zygote of Salafi-jihadism,[1]
whose long gestation period ended with the Disintegration of the Soviet Union;[2]
while its infancy was characterized by a series of Terror Attacks across Asia,
Americas, Europe and Africa including the most notable Twin Bombings of the US
Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-el-Salaam in 1998[3]. It precocious puberty was hastened when
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (which had malformed into the Islamic State in Iraq) overran expansive
swathes of territories in both Syria and Iraq; and in that way, established the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria in mid-2014[4].

Now Al-Qaeda is
strategically mature, ready to destabilize the global order and foment unmanageable
chaos. Its maturity is qualified by the fact that it has dragged the US into
chronic conflicts in multiple theaters of war, and is some instances
(Afghanistan and Iraq), defeated the US in War.

AlQaeda in Somalia

Al-Qaeda has a
History which is interposed by Critical Events which determined its Evolution.
These events and stages of evolution are discussed hereafter alongside their
strategic outcomes.

Founding
of the Islamic Republic.

In 1979, the
Islamic Revolution overturned the Established Order in Iran and the Shah was
overthrown[5].
The revolution brought to power a Shiite Clerical Regimewhich sought to establish a Shiite Theocracy over Iran. The
success of the revolution and the Founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran upheaved
the Middle East and Central Asia as the Oppressed Muslim populace in these
regions sought to depose repressive regimes using the Islamic Revolution as
their model template[6].

In the Soviet
Union, the Communist Government was alarmed by the success of the Islamic
Revolution which it viewed – albeit correctly - as an Ideological threat to the
Integrity of the Soviet Union, especially since its Islamist creeds had begun
to make inroads into the Soviet Republics in Central Asia where an indisposed
Muslim populace was residing[7]. To
its south, the Soviet Communist Satellite nation of Afghanistan functioned as a
vital buffer between the Islamic Republic and the Soviet Muslim Nationalities;
and its existence as a communist state was expected to inhibit the permeation
of the creeds of the Islamic Revolution into its Southern Republics[8].
Nonetheless, Islamism was able to permeate into the Soviet’s Southern Republics
through Afghansitan, and in some places, it arose insidiously among the
religiously-inclined Tatars, Turks, and Chechens.[9].

The rise of
Islamic sentiment in these republics (referred to as Nationalism by the Soviet Politburo) coupled with political
uncertainty in Afghanistan finally impelled the Politburo, along with the
Soviet High Command, to invade Afghanistan in an attempt to stabilize the
regime of the deeply-unpopular Communist Government of Nur Mohammad Taraki[10].
The Soviet 40th Army invaded Afghanistan on 24th December
1979, and they quickly captured Kabul where they executed Taraki and replaced
him with Babrak Kamal.[11].

The
Globally-Backed and Internationally Legitimized Jihad.

The Soviet
Invasion was condemned by the United Nations General Assembly;[12]
and in January 1980, the Islamic Conference demanded the unconditional
withdrawal of the Soviet Forces from Afghanistan[13]. Meanwhile,
an insurrectionary campaign was launched by the Afghan Mujahideen (who were later joined by Arab Jihadis)who received military aid from the
United States (the primary sponsor), Pakistan, China, and the Gulf Arab
Nations[14]. Israel[15]
is also known to have aided the Mujahideen
in an attempt to reconfigure the political environment within Soviet Russia.

Saudi Arabia
used the Maktab al-Khidamat (Services
Office) to channel an estimated $600 Million to the Mujahideeen in Afghanistan. Maktab
al-Khidamat was founded by Osama bin Laden, and the Palestinian Muslim
Scholar and Muslim Brotherhood Ideologue, Abdullah Yusuf Azzam. Abdullah Yusuf
Azzam, who taught and mentored Osama bin Laden, is still widely considered to
be the father of International Jihad. Together, Azzam and bin Laden used Maktab al-Khidamat to establish a
network of guest houses in Peshawar, Pakistan, to provide temporary residence
for the would-be Arab mujahideen on
their way to Afghanistan[16].

The Chinese
supported the Afghan Mujahideen in
retaliation for the Afghan government support of Vietnam during the
Sino-Vietnam War, as well as to counter Soviet advances towards Xinjiang
Province in China’s Mainland[17].
The People’s Liberation Army of China trained the Mujahideen initially in Pakistan before relocating the training
camps to Chinese territory where they armed the Jihadis with Chinese-made
machine guns, Anti-aircraft missiles, and Rocket launchers[18].

In entirety,
the transnational support given to the Mujahideen
by a multitude of powerful nations (including the Soviet Client State of
Czechoslovakia) and non-state actors (the corruption-infested Soviet army sold
its weapons to the mujahideen)
enabled the insurgents and the Arab volunteers to drag the Soviet Union into a
protracted and costly long war which would exact an unforgiving toll on the
Soviet Union.

The Mujahideen launched an intense but
sustained guerrilla war against a combined force of 115,000 Soviet Soldiers[19]
backed by 55,000 Afghan Government troops[20].
Nevertheless, the Mujahideen were
able to make an estimated four-fifths of Afghanistan ungovernable[21].

Sensing an
opportunity to insidiously destroy the Soviet Union, the US National Security
Adviser – Zbigniew Brzezinski – conceived an ingenious strategy dubbed the
“Bear Trap” which would cause the implosion of the Soviet Union[22].

The
Bear Trap.

The bear trap
was a two-pronged strategy conceived to cripple the Soviet Union financially as
well as erode its internal cohesiveness, with the expectation that in so doing,
the resultant cascade of precipitous events would severely destabilize the
Union thus ensuring its eventual downfall[23].

The first prong
encompassed use of sanctions and direct reactions to exact an insufferable
international price from the Soviet Union for its invasion of Afghanistan. The
second prong involved a joint CIA-MI6 scheme to collaborate with Pakistani,
Israeli, Chinese, Egyptian and Saudi governments to train and equip the Mujahideen for a long war against the
Soviet Union[24].
Moreover, both the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) and MI6 (Military
Intelligence, Section 6) began a covert operation to seed the Muslim-dominated
Soviet Republics with Salafist literature which beseeched religious Muslims to
overthrow the Atheist Soviet System[25].

Strategic Files (SF) has assessed that the utility of the bear trap was grounded
on its capabilities to exponentially increase the cost of war for the Soviet
Union while simultaneously sabotaging the Soviet Economy by ensuring that
international sanctions obstructed it from accessing International Funds, thereby
entrapping the Soviets within an economic bubble where it would be forced to
consume its limited economic resources without recourse to adequate replenishment.
The resultant stagnated economy coupled with a costly indecisive war eventually
plunged the Soviet Union into an Economic Turmoil which ultimately led to its
dissolution.

Operation Cyclone.

Operation
Cyclone was a costly covert CIA
campaign which was aimed at funding and training Islamic Fundamentalists in
coordination with the Pakistani ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence). The CIA financed the operation to the tune of $3
Billion, while ISI sourced the fighters and allocated the resources to them[26].
As such, ISI acted as the intermediary between the CIA
and the Mujahideen; and this gave it inordinate
leverage which allowed it to work in concert with the Pakistani Government –
then led by General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq – to formulate an operative
geo-strategy that would counter the southward expansion of the Soviet Union; as
well as plan to destabilize Northwestern India using the Mujahideen[27].

Lieutenant
General Akhtar AbdurRahman, the then Director-General of ISI, conceived of a
plan to disproportionately arm the Foreign Contingent of Islamic Extremists
(popularly known as the Muhajiroun)
who could later be used to fight India[28].
This foreign contingent was predominantly populated by Arab Volunteers, chief
among them being a young wealthy Saudi National named Osama bin Laden[29].
These ideologically-devout Arab volunteers[30]
who were trained and armed with military-grade weapons, were to form the nexus
of the Base (or as it’s known by its Arabic name, Al-Qaeda).

Establishment
of the Base.

After a
grueling long war in Afghanistan, the Afghan Mujahideen ultimately defeated the Soviet Union and compelled it to
effect a withdrawal of its forces from the country thus ushering in a period
that was characterized by the ascendancy of Islamists, albeit cloaked as
politico-military outfits - chief among them being, the Taliban.[31].
Central to the War against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and later on
against the Government of Mohammed Najibullah, was a group designated as the
Afghan Arabs - a motley band of Arab Jihadists who fought to defend Islam
against a godless nemesis which strove to spread State-sponsored
Communist-inclined Organized Atheism across Muslim lands (Dar-al-Islam)[32].

The Bear-Trap succeeded in ensuring that the
Soviet Union was defeated in Afghanistan, but it also left behind
ideologically-committed fighting groups searching for new theaters of jihad
where they could participate in Kinetic Wars. However, these disparate fighting
groups lacked a cohesive strategy towards non-Muslim regimes and secular
regimes in their Muslim-dominated Home nations. This was due to a lack of a
unified military doctrine and an absence of a well-structured system of
leadership. This problem was solved when Abu Ubaidah working alongside Osama
bin Laden established a Military Base where the mujahideen could be trained and amalgamated into fighting cells
subordinated to a clear and established hierarchy. This base served as the
central training center for the Arab Mujahideen,
and it is from here that the organization got its name, Al-Qaeda or The Base[33]. Most importantly, the Mujahideeen emerging from the Base had clear objectives, cohesive
military strategies and were subordinated to an established hierarchy of
leadership. With this feat accomplished, the first phase towards Global Jihad
was accomplished.

Even so, the Mujahideen were to reorient and adapt
themselves to transformative changes happening across the world – the Global
Strategic Repositioning

Global
Strategic Repositioning.

The collapse
and the disintegration of the Soviet Union effectively ended the Cold War and
left the USA as the sole Super-Power in the World[34]. According
to a SF analyst (the author), the immediate Post-Cold War was characterized by
the ascendancy of the US to a true Hyper-Power.

Within
Al-Qaeda, its astute and well-educated strategists accurately predicted a change
in the Global Order, and they formulated strategies that would ensure the
survival of Al-Qaeda through the indeterminate period of the formation of a New
World Order. The New World Order was quickly established with the Occident
securing its pre-eminence in Global Geopolitics and Geo-economics [35].

During the
1990s, the Global Debate was whether the New World Order should be Unipolar - with
the US as the sole Hyper-Power that imposes its Will on other nation-states –
or, Multipolar, where the logic of consensus amongst Normal nation-states would secure the interests of the majority
(sometimes to the detriment of the minority)[36].

SF asserts
that the New World Order inclined to the Unipolar Setting due to the ensuing
development of events across the world which is elaborated hereafter.

1.The
“Arc of Crisis”[37]
was expanding as volatility manifested itself in the Balkans and among the newly-independent
Soviet Republics, especially with regards to Nagorno-Karabakh (an
Armenian-populated area administered by Azerbaijan) which was being contested
by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yugoslavia disintegrated amid violent
infighting which led to intense and brutal wars which characterized the
Balkanization process. The Middle East was now no longer the sole locus of instability and geostrategic
tension.

2.The
US was faced with the challenge of controlling destructive chaos within the
ever-expanding “arc of crisis”, and this compelled it to undertake unilateral
actions to stabilize critical regions of the World; but when numerous conflicts
cropped up in different places, the US was inclined to undertake multilateral
engagements in attempts to pacify vital regions such as South-Eastern Europe.

3.China
actively refused to project itself as a Superpower, and instead chose to ally
itself with the US while still retaining its unique form of Communism. Instead of being pugnacious
towards the US; the Chinese chose to trade[38]
with the US, and in the process, a deluge of cheap, affordable but low-quality
Chinese products flooded the US market. Using US Consumerism to its advantage,
the China was able to amass enormous wealth; and is presently one of the
Primary US financiers[39].

4.Still
cognizant of the inherent fragility of Supra-national entities, the European
nations favored greater economic integration along with limited political
unification. The European Union would immediately rival the US, but due to shared
cultural and unifying religious bonds; such cold rivalry is normally
complemented with healthy cooperation.

5.Israel’s
strategic maneuvers against the Soviet Union paid off as after Soviet
Disintegration, the Arab nations were stripped of an alternative Superpower
ally thus leaving them dependent on the US. This in effect greatly leveraged
Israel’s geopolitical clout across the Middle East – mainly through its
inordinate influence on US Foreign Policy towards the Middle East.

6.With
the ascendance of the United States to the status of the Sole Hyper-Power, it
spontaneously formed the core engine of the global economy. Any economic
meltdown in the US would have severe global repercussions.

The
Brilliant Strategists and their Strategies: Setting the Stage for Global Jihad.

Abu al-Fadl,
Al-Qaeda’s foremost International Affairs expert; and Abu Musab al-Suri, the
genius Military Strategist; would prepare a written policy that would serve as the
prototype for posturing Al-Qaeda within the New World Order. (More on them and
their strategies will be discussed in later serial posts).

Abu al-Fadl was
the first to promulgate the utility of soft power in spreading Al-Qaeda’s
worldview across the Muslim lands. Al-Fadl reasoned that if Al-Qaeda packaged
and exported its ideology under the context of alleviating Institutionalized
Repression, overthrowing Tyrannical regimes, defending Islam, and promotion of Religious-Cultural
enlightenment; the Muslim Ummah would
accept Al-Qaeda as the heirs to the Ottoman Caliphate.

Abu al-Fadl and
Abu Musab al-Suri were both level-headed, highly intelligent scholars well
versed in World History, International Affairs, Military Science, Logic and
Islam. Al-Fadl was especially well versed with the works of the pre-eminent
Scholar of Neo-Realism, Professor Stephen Walt;[40]
and was known to have studied extensively his work Musclebound: The Limits of US Power. After careful study of this
masterpiece, Al-Fadl conceived the strategy of “innumerable small wars”. Al-Fadl rationally reasoned that the US as
the sole Hyper-Power would quickly and definitely eliminate any large-scale
localized direct threat; and he therefore conceived the strategy that offensive
jihad should be waged in multiple locations (in multiple nations) simultaneously
so as to thin out and overwhelm (potential) US response, as well as increase
the odds of jihad succeeding in some theaters of War.

Abu Musab
al-Suri would later draw a Master Military Strategy that was implemented by
Al-Qaeda a decade later, and its present effects testify to the brilliance and
mental acuity of its creator. But in the late 1980s, he was engrossed in deep
studies and research into how and why the Hama Uprising ended in total failure.
In 1990, he created a template for a phased Jihad (which will be discussed in
later posts).

Conclusion.

The Defeat of
the Soviet Union and the Relative Success of the Islamic Revolution left
Al-Qaeda emboldened that it could challenge the US in the Global Battlefield,
and strive to attain victory through a relentless War of Attrition coupled to
an Intensified Asymmetric War across Multiple Theaters of Offensive Jihad. Nonetheless,
Al-Qaeda strategists erroneously concluded that the Dissolution of the Soviet
Union was precipitated solely by the Mujahideen.
Incautiously, these strategists have ossified this notable error into a petrified
stratagem (of Phased Jihad) which
Al-Qaeda is presently using to upset the prevailing Global Order in belief that
the Islamist Network offers a better alternative.

*************************

References

[1]Turner, John (2010). “From Cottage Industry to
International Organisation: The Evolution of Salafi-Jihadism and the Emergence
of the Al-Qaeda Ideology”. Terrorism and
Political Violence 22 (4):
541-558. DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2010.485534

[2]Coll, Steve (2005). Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden,
from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (2nd Ed.). New York: Penguin
Books.

[35]Cohen, Saul (1991). “Global Geopolitical Change
in the Post-Cold War Era”. Annals of the
Association of American Geographers, 81(4),
551-580.

[36]Huntington,Samuel (1996). The Clash of
Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York: Simon &
Schuster.

[37] Halliday,
Fred (1981). “The Arc of Crisis and the New Cold War”. Middle East Research and Information, Inc [MERIP Reports], 100,
14-25.

[38] Dieter,
Heribert (2014). The Return of
Geopolitics: Trade Policy in the Era of TTIP and TPP. International Policy Analysis[Dialogue on Globalization for Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
| Global Policy and Development Hiroshimastr].

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