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The Aspen Global Change Institute is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change. Our work includes interdisciplinary research, education and outreach, and collaboration with resource managers and policy-makers. Together we strive to facilitate scientific discussion for the betterment of society and natural systems, while promoting practical solutions to the challenges of today's changing Earth systems.

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When the Rain Stops: Drought on Subseasonal and Longer Timescales

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Aspen CO

September 09, 2018 to September 14, 2018

This session will address four topics related to subseasonal to seasonal drought: science (understanding, modeling and prediction), observations, impacts and response. Experts from fields of physical science, impacts and policy will be brought together to address questions related to these four topics.

Session Description:

Drought presents daunting scientific challenges, not only for observing and understanding the processes and mechanisms that produce it, but also for prediction, adaptation, and informing policy decisions. Droughts can have numerous severe impacts on a variety of timescales related to water and food security. Unlike other weather and climate extremes, drought has many definitions that often are framed by impacts that unfold on different timescales. Drought has mostly been studied on interannual to decadal timescales, however, and so-called “flash droughts” on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale (roughly 30 to 90 days) have been largely overlooked, even though they can produce acute impacts that can quickly overwhelm emergency resources with dire consequences.

These events can amplify negative impacts occurring during longer-timescale (interannual or decadal) dry periods, or longer term drying associated with climate change. Longer timescale drought events represent a cumulative risk, which is intensified at the onset of a flash drought when longer term dry conditions have already exhausted relief supplies, and funding resources have already been stretched to the limit. The onset of a flash drought under these conditions can ramp up extreme impacts in a short period of time, with profound implications for adaptive management.

Onset of a subseasonal to seasonal drought may be associated with synoptic-scale weather phenomena such as blocking. Termination is an open initial value problem, and it is unclear what kinds of precipitation events can “break” a subseasonal to seasonal drought. Duration of a flash drought also raises questions: can such a drought persist beyond a season or year, and how long can such a drought last? Flash droughts expose issues involved with water and evaporative demand, as well as emergency response and long term vulnerability for food security.

Understanding the processes involved with flash droughts requires enhanced observations. Prediction of flash droughts is a challenge, but efforts at subseasonal to seasonal initialized prediction can be leveraged. Such predictions are in the early stages and the degree of skill for this kind of drought phenomena is unclear.

This session will address four topics related to subseasonal to seasonal drought: science (understanding, modeling and prediction), observations, impacts and response. Experts from fields of physical science, impacts and policy will be brought together to address questions related to these four topics.

Participants

Participants

Participant profiles are always being updated. For information on participant affiliation at time of conference, please refer to historical roster.

Walter Orr Roberts Public Lecture

September 11, 2018

Presented by:

NOAA senior science advisor Roger Pulwarty reflects on how science and learning can help us adapt to an uncertain future in the semi-arid Intermountain West and beyond. In a humorous and entertaining manner, the lecture highlights innovative lessons from communities with which Dr. Pulwarty has worked and addresses barriers and opportunities for applying research to support communities in managing risk and developing new networks for sharing knowledge.

Date:

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Details

Author/s:

NOAA senior science advisor Roger Pulwarty reflects on how science and learning can help us adapt to an uncertain future in the semi-arid Intermountain West and beyond. In a humorous and entertaining manner, the lecture highlights innovative lessons from communities with which Dr. Pulwarty has worked and addresses barriers and opportunities for applying research to support communities in managing risk and developing new networks for sharing knowledge.

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Aspen Global Change Institute

Mission

The Aspen Global Change Institute is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change in service of society. Our work includes interdisciplinary research, education and outreach, and collaboration with resource managers and policy-makers. Together we strive to facilitate scientific discussion for the betterment of society and natural systems, while promoting practical solutions to the challenges of today's changing Earth systems.