2017 NFL Power Rankings, Presented By Knightfall: Week 12

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The number seven team is not like six ahead of them. Those six at least 7 wins and playoff odds greater than 70%.

The outlier? It's the 4-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who moved up a whopping seven spots over the weekend. By our model, we would expect them to win by 5.1 points against an average team on a neutral field.

While it is possible their ranking is somewhat inflated by their turnover-fueled 54-24 victory over Nathan Peterman and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday -- in which they forced 5 interceptions on his 14 drop backs -- the Chargers still do look to be one of the league's better teams.

Even before this week, they were 10th in the league in yards per play differential (+0.4), performance which outpaced their win-loss record.

For the second straight year, the Chargers have struggled in close games while looking strong in victories. They are 2-5 in games decided by 8 points or fewer (after going 3-9 in such games last season), while their 14.3-point average scoring margin in wins is eighth in the league.

The six losses the Chargers already have banked mean they are behind the eight-ball in terms of playoff odds, as we only give them a 31.5% chance of making the postseason.

The AFC’s subpar field of contenders should keep Los Angeles in the mix, as among the teams slotted 5th through 13th in the conference’s postseason race, Baltimore (the would-be number six seed) and Houston (in the 11th spot) are the only teams with above average nERD rankings.

Here is how the rest of the league breaks down heading into Thanksgiving weekend.

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

Contrary to popular belief and their record, the Cleveland Browns might not be the worst team in the NFL. They are certainly not the worst team in our rankings.

Rank

Team

nERD

Rec

Proj

Playoff Odds

Off. NEP Rank

Def. NEP Rank

Change

32

Indianapolis Colts

-12.86

3-7

4.9-11.1

0.60%

26

32

0

31

San Francisco 49ers

-12.48

1-9

2.6-13.4

0.00%

31

29

0

30

Miami Dolphins

-9.92

4-6

5.7-10.3

2.20%

30

26

0

29

Oakland Raiders

-7.62

4-6

6.1-9.9

3.30%

15

31

-1

28

Cleveland Browns

-7.56

0-10

1.6-14.4

0.00%

28

23

+1

27

Buffalo Bills

-5.96

5-5

7.6-8.4

21.60%

25

21

-5

26

Arizona Cardinals

-5.81

4-6

6.3-9.7

0.50%

29

16

-2

25

New York Jets

-5.63

4-6

5.8-10.2

2.20%

23

22

+2

24

Cincinnati Bengals

-4.53

4-6

6.4-9.6

4.10%

24

17

+1

23

New York Giants

-4.42

2-8

4.4-11.6

0.00%

21

19

+3

Cleveland hung tough for the second week in a row on Sunday, this time doing so against top-ranked Jacksonville. The Browns eventually fell 19-7, but the Jaguars needed two non-offensive touchdowns to seal the win.

On the season, they are the latest data point that shows passing and stopping the pass are the most important things a team needs to do, rather than running and stopping the run.

On the ground, the Browns are 12th in yards per carry (4.3) and fourth in Net Expected Points (NEP) per rush. (NEP measures each play's impact on the scoreline and you can read more about it in our glossary.) Defensively, they have been even better, ranking first in yards against per carry (3.1) and second in NEP allowed per carry. If these two elements of the game are the most important, a team that is strong in both facets would not be the favorite to pick first in the draft.

That's a spot Cleveland does find itself in because it is dead last in NEP per drop back on offense and 27th on defense.

Still, the Browns are not last in our rankings, despite their struggles through the air. Being strong on the ground is not valueless, and their running game and run defense do help their ranking somewhat.

Cleveland is better than 10 teams in terms of yards per play differential, thanks mostly to a defense that has been above-average in terms of yards per play (5.0) and success rate (41.8%). Success rate measures the rate of plays that yield positive NEP and the league average is about 42.0%. Their below-average turnover rate is why they don't rank higher in terms of overall defensive NEP.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

His backup Brett Hundley has played extensively in five games and looked awful in four of them...and the Packers are still 10th in offensive NEP for the season.

Rank

Team

nERD

Rec

Proj

Playoff Odds

Off. NEP Rank

Def. NEP Rank

Change

22

Tennessee Titans

-4.25

6-4

9.0-7.0

65.00%

18

27

-1

21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-3.83

4-6

6.2-9.8

1.40%

20

24

+2

20

Dallas Cowboys

-3.77

5-5

7.5-8.5

5.30%

13

28

-2

19

Denver Broncos

-1.88

3-7

6.2-9.8

4.20%

32

3

0

18

Chicago Bears

-0.88

3-7

5.9-10.1

0.00%

22

9

+2

17

Green Bay Packers

0.26

5-5

7.7-8.3

9.70%

10

20

-4

16

Atlanta Falcons

0.97

6-4

8.7-7.3

32.40%

12

18

+1

15

Houston Texans

1.16

4-6

7.2-8.8

17.70%

14

15

0

14

Detroit Lions

1.28

6-4

9.1-6.9

43.70%

17

12

-3

13

Seattle Seahawks

1.4

6-4

9.5-6.5

57.80%

16

13

-4

Of course, you don’t need me to tell you this is not actually the 10th-best offense in the NFL, but just look at how Green Bay performed in the weeks leading up to Rodgers’ injury and after.

Packers

Offensive NEP/play

Rank

Passing NEP/dropback

Rank

Rushing NEP/carry

Rank

Weeks 1 - 5

0.16

3rd

0.23

4th

0.08

5th

Weeks 6 - 11

-0.03

23rd

-0.16

29th

0.08

6th

The Packers have managed to maintain an efficient running game, but it has hardly mattered because Hundley has been so poor. His struggles have been across the board, as he tied for 31st in yards per completion (9.8) but also 28th in completion percentage (60.8%) and 32nd in success rate (38.9%), indicating he has neither been explosive nor efficient, as success rate measures the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP.

Hundley is also 33rd in sack rate (though Rodgers is 29th, so this might not all be on him), 35th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in touchdown rate (1.3%), and 34th in interception rate (4.4%). While the latter two numbers are especially prone to randomness in small samples, it's hard to be optimistic. With Hundley at the helm, this is just a flat-out bad offense.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

The Ravens join the Chargers as newcomers to the top-10.

Rank

Team

nERD

Rec

Proj

Playoff Odds

Off. NEP Rank

Def. NEP Rank

Change

12

Kansas City Chiefs

1.71

6-4

9.9-6.1

91.10%

7

25

-2

11

Washington Redskins

2.95

4-6

7.7-8.3

5.90%

11

14

+1

10

Baltimore Ravens

2.99

5-5

8.6-7.4

58.70%

27

2

+6

9

Carolina Panthers

4.53

7-3

10.3-5.7

76.10%

19

4

-2

8

New England Patriots

4.9

8-2

12.5-3.5

99.90%

1

30

0

7

Los Angeles Chargers

5.1

4-6

8.0-8.0

31.50%

9

10

+7

6

Los Angeles Rams

7.72

7-3

10.3-5.7

72.60%

6

7

-3

5

Minnesota Vikings

8.34

8-2

11.9-4.1

97.30%

4

8

+1

4

Pittsburgh Steelers

9.41

8-2

12.1-3.9

99.90%

5

6

+1

3

New Orleans Saints

10.21

8-2

12.0-4.0

97.30%

2

11

-1

2

Philadelphia Eagles

11.05

9-1

13.3-2.7

100.00%

3

5

+2

1

Jacksonville Jaguars

14.1

7-3

10.9-5.1

97.80%

8

1

0

Like Los Angeles, their move came on the heels of a big win over a bad quarterback, as the Ravens shutout Hundley and the Packers at Lambeau Field by a score of 23-0.

While the degree of difficulty was comparatively low on Sunday, the Ravens defense has still been one of the league’s better units. Baltimore is second behind Jacksonville in defensive NEP and is second against the pass on a per drop back basis.

The Ravens lead the league in turnovers forced per drive but do not have to rely on takeaways (rare and generally unpredictable events) to stop opponents. They are also tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (4.8) and have held opposing offenses to a 39.2% success rate.

They have needed to be strong on this side of the ball because their offense has been anything but elite. Joe Flacco has been almost two full standard deviations below the mean in terms of net yards per drop back (4.6) for the team that is 29th in NEP per pass play and 16th on the ground.