A380 backlog shrinking

It would appear that the experiment with the super large jumbo jet has failed (or will fail). So far for 2013, Airbus has a net order book of -3 for
the A380, with a number more that have cancellation clauses in their agreements, and several that may be shifted to other aircraft. They also show 5
still on order for Kingfisher, which ceased operations last year.

One of the problems is that Airbus is offering twin jets that are more attractive than the super jumbo. They would have to have 550-560 seats on an
A380 to match up to an A350-1000 when it enters the market in 2017.

There is the possibility that an order for 20 aircraft could be completed this year, but it's not looking like the market is going to turn the way
Airbus has been predicting for many years now.

With the operating costs of a twin, and the per seat savings being what they are, I'll be surprised if we see many more four engine aircraft
developed, unless it's something like the Bae-146. The age of the four engine jumbo jet has passed, thanks to advances in engine technology, and
carbon fiber.

I used to work on 146's - brand spanking new ones.....and there is no particular reason for them or a similar "niche" aircraft to be 4's now
either - they did not have "blown" flaps from those 4 engines to get their performance, and these days I suspect 2 more modern engines could be just
as quiet.

I remember back in the early days of the programme Airbus talked of a twin engine version eventually emerging. I wonder if they are dusting that
down?

I think any announcements of failure are premature however, I don't think anyone really thought the A380 would sell in similar numbers to the big
twins, it's more of a slow burner and I can see it still being in production, albeit in relatively low volumes, in 30-40 years time and there will be
plenty of them flying around.

One thing in the AvWeek article struck me as odd, that was the point about it needing to seat 550 passengers, which is more than any operators have
specced. AFAIAA the 'standard' layout for the 380 is 559 seats, which would be bang on the money, with the type certificated up to 850 which offers
plenty of scope for refits, demand permitting.

I just don't see it getting the numbers needed to even break even at this point, with orders being as slow as they are. I'm not sure what the break
even stands at now, but in 2006 it was 420 aircraft, and right now it looks like they aren't even going to get close to that.

They're talking about selling over 600 more aircraft in the next 20 years but with the move towards the twin designs I don't see many more four
engine aircraft being in the market much longer.

In Asia there could be a market for the type as a short haul mass transport, several operators fly 747's on Domestic routes, and the economic
development of Asian nations could slso fuel demand. I think this is the types best bet with modest orders coming from elsewhere. I just think there
will always be a demand for very large aircraft and this will be heightened when (if) the global economy recovers, airbus would probably have to move
the type upwards though to distance it further from the 777X and A350-1000, I think this is the long term goal as Airbus only last week was reported
in Flight as saying "this isn't a one model programme" though they didn't expand on that.

The problem with four engine designs though is that with the new technologies you can get almost as many people into a plane that's more efficient,
with a lower seat per mile cost, that's easier to maintain. You don't really need a four engine design anymore to do the things you did
before, and the airlines are seeing that.

You see 747s on short haul flights but how many of them are packed full. You can fit a lot of people on a 747 domestic variant, but you can get
within 100 or so on some of the newer twins.

I love the four engine design, always have. But do you really need to have four engines, when you have two that can go as far, or farther, cheaper?

With the upper limit for a twin currently being about 440 passengers, I can't see any point in going for a four around that level, other than perhaps
a more spacious, premium service utilising the larger cabin space and utilising luxury to sell at premium prices, similar to BA's transatanlic A318's.
Other than that though , despite what many believe, I still think there will always be a demand for a larger higher capacity aircraft and that
currently means 4 engines. This is likely to be a slow and steady demand, but the longer it stays in production, obviously, the closer to break even
it will get. I'm not saying it WILL get there, I just think it has more of a chance than most are giving it.

I suppose the next two years will tell if 2013 was just a bad year or if demand has dried up.

In a related note, Boeing is slowing 747-8 production from just under 2 aircraft a month to 1.5 aircraft a month through 2015. They're just over
halfway through the production of aircraft on the order list.

Facing weakened demand for big passenger and freight aircraft, Boeing has opted to reduce the 747-8 production rate from 1.75 aircraft per month
to 1.5 through 2015.

The move comes as the company passes the half way point of its accumulated order backlog for the aircraft, the vast majority of which are for the
freighter model. To date, the 747-8 has accumulated 107 orders, 56 of which have been delivered.

The fate of the A380 will be tied to the fate of long haul operators like Emirates which have no short haul routes to worry about. Its no coincidence
that they have the most on order and operate the biggest fleet Thier hub and route structure are well suited to a mix of long range twins and the A380
hence the fleet mix of A330 and 777 with them phasing out the A340's . I dont think they ever operating 747 except in cargo configurations.

Some of the orders are sketchy as well like those from Kingfisher, Virgin, Luftansa cut 3 I think, Air Austral, and a few others. I doubt that the
airframe will ever break even but I agree with Waynos that the line will churn on for a while.

Boeing is facing the the same fate with the 747-8 and has resorted to huge discounts and buying -400 at inflated prices to sell the model. Lets face
it 4 engine long haul airframes are DOA they just havent claimed the body yet.

Don't get me wrong chaps. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying about 4 engine airliners, I'm sure we won't see another one at all.
Conversely, it's the small trickle of demand for such aircraft that I think will keep the A380 going simply because it is significantly bigger than
anything else. I think the 747-8 is too close to the 777-8 (go on, I bet) to make sense.

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