Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana

Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.

Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.

Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.

I stepped away for a minute, came back and checked recon data before I checked the blog.. imagined in my head for a bit what the blog would look like, came to the blog, and the two images were exactly the same XD

Quoting Levi32:This, to me, indicates that Alex was easily a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall in the Yucatan. Or....he was a strong TS at landfall and strengthened into a hurricane over the eastern Yucatan....he formed an eye northwest of Belize while inland....an incredible feat. He appears to have strengthened over land last night like TS Fay did over Florida.

I was expecting Alex to maintain strength and even weaken a little, never would I have thought that it would strengthen over land, let alone strengthen to a hurricane.

Quoting Levi32:This, to me, indicates that Alex was easily a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall in the Yucatan. Or....he was a strong TS at landfall and strengthened into a hurricane over the eastern Yucatan....he formed an eye northwest of Belize while inland....an incredible feat. He appears to have strengthened over land last night like TS Fay did over Florida.

Read my thoughts, that is exactly what must have happened. Alex is already adapting quickly to the Gulf of Mexico per satellite images.

I'd say it's a TS but its winds are nowhere close to the 60-65 knots that you usually see with a 991mb system. That is because it just passed over land....but a 991mb center means the winds will quickly reach 60 knots within the next 24 hours if Alex successfully reorganizes and tightens up a new core.

Hi again all..I have a question..any opinions appreciated...Our local met was saying something about a front approaching that will steer Alex AWAY from SW LA....Can't this front pick it up and make it head more north?? or no?? Any thoughts? Thanks in Advance..:)

This, to me, indicates that Alex was easily a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall in the Yucatan. Or....he was a strong TS at landfall and strengthened into a hurricane over the eastern Yucatan....he formed an eye northwest of Belize while inland....an incredible feat. He appears to have strengthened over land last night like TS Fay did over Florida.

Yes!Its sucking in so much energy that it cant fit it all into a coherent package flow!

I could not believe that he sucked in that huge blob in EPAC! Alex is the real deal. NW puts Alex at TEX/MEX having a hard time seeing him get much north of Corpus, but still waiting to see what the west trof does.