City Blues By The Numbershttp://citybluesbythenumbers.com
A Stats and Numbers Based Look At NYCFCWed, 22 May 2019 11:14:41 +0000en-US
hourly
1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.2.1116198129“Up To Par and Katie bars” – NYCFC Weekly Update MLS Week 12 May 21, 2019http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/05/21/up-to-par-and-katie-bars-nycfc-weekly-update-mls-week-12-may-21-2019/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/05/21/up-to-par-and-katie-bars-nycfc-weekly-update-mls-week-12-may-21-2019/#respondTue, 21 May 2019 16:26:54 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=1003There were 16 games in MLS this week which meant lots of teams played twice, but NYCFC had the week off. It turned into a case of move forward by standing still. Midweek, the only East conference team to win was Atlanta, who won their fifth straight by shutout, setting a new record. All other Eastern teams either lost or split points (Toronto and DC). Then came the weekend and the trend continued, as East teams drew or lost with two exceptions:

The Red Bulls beat Atlanta while down to 10 men for most of the game, as result which was probably for the best, given the location and current position and trends for both teams (setting aside the always preferred draw); and

Orlando handily beat Cincinnati, which is not ideal but not particularly troublesome either.

At the top of the Table, Toronto and DC both got just 1 point out of 6, Philadelphia and Montreal both 1 of 3 at home, and Atlanta did the best with a middling 3 of 6. The only teams to improve their PPG were below the playoff line last week on the PPG table (and the Revolution only improved by earning 1 point because their PPG is so low).

NYCFC did not move in position yet its PPG relative to almost everyone else improved. Also, NYC now has played fewer games than everyone in the conference, which is a mixed blessing but definitely an opportunity.

NYCFC now controls its own place in the final season standings, which simply means they can guarantee they finish first if they somehow win all their remaining games. That’s highly unlikely, but also was not true last week or most of the year. The point is that NYCFC received a lot of help this week and now the team has to take advantage of it.

It’s hard to see but that brown line above all others represents both Philadelphia and DC, who have matched each other result-for result at the top for 3 games now. At this point in the season I find the bottom chart more useful for understanding both where everyone is combined with how many games they have played. At the end of next week, NYCFC will have the fewest games played of any team in the East. Right now, only the 2 leaders mentioned above have done better than NYC through 11 games, though Atlanta has a better PPG through 10 games.

And also note, that just like that, the East has a better combined PPG than the West, and it’s not all Colorado dragging them down. The East now has a slight advantage in the head to head match-up, but where they win the overall PPG is in the middle of the table. The top of the West is doing much better than anybody in the East.

For NYCFC, I don’t think many anticipated getting above the blue line so soon after 5 points and no wins in the first 6 games. The how-do-we-get-to table also looks more reasonable, with that elusive 60-something neighborhood looking possible (not probable but possible) for the first time in a while.

Finally, another 6 or so games of good underlying data, good form and good results, and I’ll consider replacing 2015 in the year-to-year line graphs:

2016 remains an apt comparison, and the lines act as a reminder that after the initial bad start with way too many home draws, NYCFC recovered with 3 straight wins, only to slide back down with 2 points in 4 games that included the RB Wedding and a dispiriting home loss to a weak RSL side. Whether the 2019 edition does anything similar is not necessarily dispositive of anything, but my sense is they end up somewhere in the same mid-50 point neighborhood, however they get there.

]]>http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/05/13/im-a-brand-new-sky-nycfc-update-week-11-may-13-2019/feed/0991“There’s A City In My Mind, Come Along and Take That Ride”: NYCFC Weekly Updates – MLS Week 9 April 29, 2019http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/29/theres-a-city-in-my-mind-come-along-and-take-that-ride-nycfc-weekly-updates-mls-week-9-april-29-2019/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/29/theres-a-city-in-my-mind-come-along-and-take-that-ride-nycfc-weekly-updates-mls-week-9-april-29-2019/#respondMon, 29 Apr 2019 11:05:03 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=955Well we know where we’re goingBut we don’t know where we’ve been

I wish I could tell you that the numbers underlying NYCFC’s disappointing performance have gotten much better, or clearly signal a better future. I can report that in the limited data available for 2019 the gap between the record and the underlying data has basically gone away, at least by the best single metric we have. That statistic is the Home/Away adjusted xGoal Differential, and in 2019 (with the disclaimer that I’m waiting on the 2 most recent games), NYCFC has the 13th best H/AxGD at -0.4 , sits 13th in the Supporters Shield standings, and has the 11th best PPG (tied with Orlando). That all pretty much matches.

H/A xGD is the best predictor because math and history tells us so, with thanks to Dummy Run:

In sum, this stat does a better job of predicting future results in MLS than any other rival, at least until August. Home/Away adjusted xGoals is a tweak to the regular xGoal stat that adjusts the actual xG earned in any given game to reflect effect of home stadium advantage. The ASA team has not written it up that I can find, but I think it acts as a sort of schedule adjustment, especially valuable if some teams have a significant H/A imbalance early in their season. I’m not quite sure why PPG becomes better than all the others in August. It seems consistent with something I expect most advanced stat people would reject, which is the idea that the ability to achieve game results is somewhat unmoored from both average Goal Differential and xGoals, and it simply takes a few months for that tendency to assert itself. If anything, if the theory that divergences between results and xG is a matter of luck is correct, I would expect the relative predictive advantage of xG to increase over time, not decrease.

But in any event, we are still in relatively early days of the 2019 MLS season. where H/A xGD rules (but still is not particularly great – a correlation coefficient that never reaches 0.5 is not particularly strong). Also, at the end of the day, I find lamentations that a team or player’s results do not match their performance unconvincing.

There is a romantic appeal to this scene, in which lifelong minor leaguer and occasional major league catcher discusses how little is the difference between mediocrity and greatness. His math works out. It is roughly just one hit a week that separates a .250 hitter from .300, but really, what Crash is asking for is for luck to go his way all the time. Nobody is entitled to get one cheap hit every week, and nobody is entitled to win more soccer games if they cannot score at least one goal on average at home games. Even with the disastrous last 22 games, Torrent still has a higher average xGD that Patrick Vieira did overall, mostly on the strength of his first 6 games, and I don’t care. If anything, I think the team overachieved its xGD under Vieira more than that it is underachieveing its performance under Torrent.

With that prologue, let’s look at the usual charts and tables:

The playoff line starts at 44 and would be the second lowest playoff line in the East since MLS went to a 34 game schedule. I expect it to be higher, but it is what it is right now. Also, I’m not going to revise this to include H/A xG – despite what I wrote in the opening – because I think the inclusion of a dozen teams swamps any additional accuracy that H/A xGD might have for one team.

Here is what the team needs to do to achieve some fairly optimistic totals.

Finally, line charts:

Yes, I went back to 2016 and 2015 for comps. I figure that is where we are. Either the team recovers and has a season like 2016, with a weak start featuring too many draws followed by a very solid second half, or it has a non-ambiguous disappointing bad season, for which the only exemplar to date is 2015.

DP Usage Update

NYCFC has never gone a season without at least 1 DP missing 10 or more games. With all 3 DP slots signed before the season started, and none of them injury prone or particularly old, one could hope that streak might end this year. But Jesus Medina has now missed the 2 most recent games per coach’s decision and has not played many minutes in the games he has appeared in, averaging only 41 minutes per appearance and 32 minutes over all games.

Draws

The most draws NYCFC has ever had in a season is 9, which it did in both 2016 and 2017. This year there have been 6 ties in the first 9 games. But there is no pace, pattern, or predictability with ties.

A Bit Of History

NYCFC won 1.05 PPG in its first 42 games, then earned 1.82 over the next 81, and now has 1.14 in the most recent 22. So the good times have lasted longer than the bad times to date.

NYCFC’s Best Player Through 9 Games

And the future is certain
Give us time to work it out

]]>http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/29/theres-a-city-in-my-mind-come-along-and-take-that-ride-nycfc-weekly-updates-mls-week-9-april-29-2019/feed/0955MLS Interconference Play 2019 – March and Aprilhttp://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/28/mls-interconference-play-2019-march-and-april/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/28/mls-interconference-play-2019-march-and-april/#respondSun, 28 Apr 2019 21:11:37 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=968March – 14 Games
East Record 6-6-2
At Home 5-1-1
On Road 1-5-1
Goal Differential -1
East Points 20
West Points 20

It was a remarkably even and symmetrical month. Each conference had seven home games. Both went 5-1-1- at home. Tiny goal differential advantage to the West.

April – 25 Games
East Record 7-12-6
At Home 6-6-2
On Road 1-6-4
Goal Differential -12
East Points 27
West Points 42

Season to Date – 39 Games
East Record 13-18-8
At Home 11-7-3
On Road 2-11-5
Goal Differential -13
East Points 47
West Points 62

Until the last 2 weeks I’ve been pushing back on the idea that the West is dominating the East, but overall this month, the West won as many games in East venues as the East did, and most of that came in the last 2 weeks where the East had a 8-4 advantage in Home games, but the West won 2 more games.

]]>http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/28/mls-interconference-play-2019-march-and-april/feed/0968MLS Interconference Play 2018 Wrap-Uphttp://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/28/mls-interconference-play-2018-wrap-up/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/28/mls-interconference-play-2018-wrap-up/#respondSun, 28 Apr 2019 21:05:44 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=965The disappointing end to NYCFC’s 2018 left me forgetting to post the late 2018 East/West records. Here are September and October together.

September 2018 (excluding September 1)
East Record 9-3-3
At Home 6-2-2 (10 games)
On Road 3-1-1 (5 games)
Goal Differential +12
East Points 30
West Points 12

Season to Date – 125 Games
East Record 53-48-24
At Home 38-16-9 (63 games)
On Road 15-32-15 (62 games)
Goal Differential +15
East Points 183
West Points 168

Dominant month by the East, building a comfortable cushion with just 8 interconference games remaining (of which 5 are at Home for the East teams). The East had the benefit of 10 Home games and only 5 Away, but the 3-1-1 Away record was impressive also. As noted in the prior entry, the East will end with 3 more Home games than the West when the season is over.

Three of the East’s win’s this month were by Atlanta, who finished 7-3-2 against the West.
Red Bulls are 9-2-0 against the West, with one game remaining in San Jose.
NYCFC finished its Western slate of games at 6-4-2. NYC started the season 5-1-0 against the West, and then went 1-3-2.

October 2018
East Record 5-3-0
At Home 3-2-0 (5 games)
On Road 2-1-0 (3 games)
Goal Differential +5
East Points 15
West Points 15

Full 2018 Season – 133 Games
East Record 58-51-24
At Home 41-18-9 (68 games)
On Road 17-33-15 (65 games)
Goal Differential +20
East Points 198
West Points 177

The East won 7 more games than the West. Adjusting for the 3 extra Home games the East had, they still did better than the West but probably not enough to be meaningfully significant. It was roughly an even year, won by the East but not by much.

]]>http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/04/28/mls-interconference-play-2018-wrap-up/feed/0965NYCFC 2018 With and Without David Villahttp://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/01/30/nycfc-2018-with-and-without-david-villa/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2019/01/30/nycfc-2018-with-and-without-david-villa/#respondWed, 30 Jan 2019 17:29:00 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=946It was easy to notice that Villa’s extended injury break in 2018 coincided – roughly– with the first half of Dome’s tenure when the team won.
Dome coached 19 games. Villa started 11 of them. Ten of those starts came during the 13 points in 13 games stretch to close the season. Under Dome, the team did much better without Villa in the lineup.

So I set out to look into this further. First, I divided the games into With Villa or Without Villa. Villa games are games in which he started and went 50 minutes or more. There were 19 of those. That leaves 15 where he either didn’t start or failed to go at least 50 minutes. I got the following lines:

The Scorers in non Villa Games were
Shradi 7 of his 11
Maxi 6 of 8
Berget 4 of 4
Medina 4 of 6
Tinny and Ring 2 (each), that is 4 of their 6 combined
1 each for Mata, Ofori, Castellanos, Wallace, and Lewis
Also Villa scored a PK in a game he did not start that ended in a draw

The team won more, scored more and gave up fewer goals without Villa. By a lot.
Together, Shradi, Maxi, Berget and Medina scored 21 of their 29 goals in the 15 games without Villa. Holy crap. It is one thing to step up when the team’s star is unavailable. It is another to disappear when he is playing.

By the way, the H/A splits for with Villa/without Villa games isWith Villa 9H 10AWithout Villa 8H 7A
So that is a very slight advantage for the non-Villa games but also is as close as it can be given the odd number split. The difference is not explained by the Home advantage. It is also worth noting that the better performance without Villa was true both Under Vieira and Torrent, and that the worst subset was with Villa under Torrent, which is not surprising as it largely coincides with the 13 point in 13 game period, which caused me to delve into this in the first place.

There is still a lot of correlation/causation to tease out here. Did the coaches alter the team to favor Villa too much? Was Villa too demanding of getting the ball near goal? Were other players too deferential to Villa?

In 2017 NYCFC had terrible production from Spots 3, 4 and 5 in its team goal scoring ranking. Spot Number Two didn’t shine either. Every one of those spots improved in 2018. This was the best the team ever got from scorers ## 3 and 4 and #5 tied for its best. The “Rest of Team” category also had an all-time best year for NYCFC. All of this is why the team scored more goals than 2018 despite an 8-goal drop in production by Scorer #1. On the other hand, that drop is why the team did not set a club record for goals scored despite improvement team-wide except for the top guy.

I think it is fair to conclude that Reyna et al set out to improve the team’s scoring capability beyond Villa and succeeded, but I don’t think the plan was for Shradi (total salary $350k) to outscore Berget ($817k) and Medina ($771k) combined. I’m also concerned that Shradi completely outperformed his Expected Goals by a huge amount and his Goals per Shots Taken was a similar off the chart outlier. He could outperform all metrics at a similar level next year, but that seems very unlikely. I won’t be shocked if he matches even exceeds his total numbers next year, but if so, it will probably be because he plays a lot more minutes (just 1547 in 2018, fewer than Villa even). I can’t see his pace keeping up.

Also, Maxi had a career year.

Both his goals and assists were twice his prior career average. Maybe that is who he is now, but again, I do not think we can count on it.

Which means, I think, the club has to get another stud to be the team’s best scorer (and/or Medina and Berget need to be upgraded or just be better) to compensate for what I expect to be decreased production in 2019 from ITS and Maxi.

Thing is, MLS teams don’t necessarily need to have a healthy Villa-level scorer to succeed. Here are all the playoff teams:

Some of these are misleading: DC and Seattle’s top scorers arrived midseason and led second half surges. But SKC, LAFC and Dallas won more points this year than NYCFC without a better full-time scorer than an injury-limited Villa, and Portland just made it to MLS Cup without exceeding NYCFC at any of Spots 1 through 5.

Also, not our problem, but if I were in charge of SKC I would be concerned that the team might be unlikely to again get 24 goals from the Rest of Team category. I don’t know this to be true but I expect it is something that doesn’t normally repeat year to year.

Obviously, this ignores defense, and assists, and thousands of other little things, but I do think these goal comparisons are useful.

]]>http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2018/11/30/nycfc-roster-building-2018-2019-who-scores-the-goals/feed/0928It’s All In The Framing: A Response to Dummy Runhttp://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2018/10/31/its-all-in-the-framing-a-response-to-dummy-run/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2018/10/31/its-all-in-the-framing-a-response-to-dummy-run/#commentsWed, 31 Oct 2018 11:37:36 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=915The pseudonymous Dummy Run over at Twitter wrote the NYCFC Playoff Preview for ASA. Dummy is no dummy, and the article is great. It is also long. It is dense. It has a lot of charts. I mean, even by his standards, it is chart heavy. You will learn a lot. Go read it. Maybe twice. There is a lot of good stuff there.

But I have one big problem. Really big. The first chart in the article is a Vieira/Torrent comparison, covering many regular and advanced stats, and it shows that NYCFC is better under Torrent on basically all the advanced stats while behind on the regular ones. This is known as bad luck. This point frames his entire discussion, which covers so much more, including how NYCFC responds o pressure when it plays from the back, how it transitions into attack, and identifying specific style differences in play under Vieira and Torrent, all illustrate with graphs, charts, and video. The opening and closing theme of the piece is that Dome had the team playing better and it was bad luck that the results did not follow.

But. This is a big but. And I’m disappointed Dummy didn’t notice this, or actively chose to ignore it, but the frame he imposes — comparing all of Vieira’s games to all of Torrent’s games, masks the extreme seesaw nature of Torrent’s time at NYCFC. As Dummy lays out in the chart I mentioned (it’s the ones with the photos of Vieira and Torrent) , Expected Goals For NYCFC went up from 1.57 to 1.73 when Dome took over, and Expected Goals Against went down from 1.32 to 1.17. So the team got better, right? Here’s a simpler table with just those stats (some of my numbers are just slightly different because of different rounding algorithms I think):

Yay better. All good. But let’s compare these 2 coaches:

Coach 1 has results better than Torrent. Coach 2 is worse that Vieira. And — big reveal — they are both Dome Torrent, split between his his first 9 games (through the Toronto Away game) and his last 10 when the team was much worse. According to Expected Goals, the longer Torrent was in charge, the worse NYCFC played. The results were not bad luck. They matched the run of play. The only reason Dome’s results look better than Vieira’s is that before he changed things up so much, and brought in his guys, the team had it’s best xG run of the season. So the ASA article basically masks the correlation between advanced stats and results by treating Dome’s 19 games as a consistent run of play, which they were not. There was no bad luck. The team had good results for Dome when xG says they played well, and poor results when they did not. In Torrent’s first 9 games with an Expected Goal Differential of +1.08 the team went 6-2-1 for 2.11 PPG. Then when the same differential dropped to +0.4 the team went 2-5-3 for 0.90 PPG.

The Home and Away splits show that the big difference was Away, though the team got worse at Home also.
First, Home. “Dome” is his record as a whole. “Dome1” represents his first 5 Home games, “Dome2” his last 5:

It is pretty consistent, but though the differences are small, the team actually performed better under Vieira, and the Expected Goals Against did increase by a meaningful amount in the final quarter of the season under Dome. In sum, Home defense got worse, according to Expected Goals.

Now Away. NYCFC played 9 games Away under Dome. The Dome1/2 split is First 4, last 5.

Holy crap on a stick. At first, NYCFC improved a lot on the road when Dome took over, and you may remember they won 2 Away games after a long dry spell. Arguably they should have done even better. The Expected Goal DIfferential for the 2 losses in this set of games was +0.88 (Chicago) and +0.99 (Seattle). But after that, Expected Goals For went down an entire goal per game from 1.89 to 0.90. That’s massive. At the same time, Expected Goals Against went up by 0.6 for a swing of 1.59 in Expected Goal Differential in the wrong direction between the first half of Torrent’s tenure and the second half playing Away.

What excuses are there for this? Schedule? Injuries? I cannot go with injuries because the first half of Torrent’s time coincides almost perfectly with Villa’s long absence, while the crap run overlaps with a missing Medina. That doesn’t really explain anything.

Finally, I understand that 5 and 4 game samples are really small (although that is just the H/A breakdown). Maybe Dome had an anomalously great short run to start, then a similar bad run. Maybe next year averages out all good. But the thesis that Dome simply improved the team and the poor results do not coincide with how he had the team playing does not hold up when you break it down. When you change the framing from (1) Vieira vs Torrent to (2)Torrent’s Good Start vs Torrent’s Bad Finish you see that Dome pretty much got the results he deserved. He won when the team played well, and lost when they deteriorated. That’s true whether you go by the eye test or xG, and bad luck doesn’t really play into it. Maybe the team deserved to win a little more over the last 10, as the xGD was barely on the positive side overall. But when play objectively worsens, I’m not very sympathetic to the complaint that results should not have been quite as bad as they were. Expected goals says NYCFC certainly did not deserve a strong record at the end of the season, and any analysis of Torrent has to consider why the team did so much worse the longer he was in charge.

Teams Who Can Catch NYCFC1. DC United
12 points back, 4 games to play.
Home Dallas, Home TFC, Home NYCFC Away Chicago. H/A adjusted Opponents’ PPG 1.11 (7th easiest-tie)
DCU has to win out, and NYCFC lose out. That will put them tied on Points and Wins. GD status currently NYC +14, DCU +6. But if NYC loses out and DC wins out, NYC will be at most +12, and DCU at least +10. So DC would have to pick up an additional 3 GD, either by winning by >1 or NYC losing by >1, and then DC leads here. Next tiebreaker is Goals For. Teams are current tied, so if DC makes up the points deficit they would win this tiebreaker, meaning they only need to pick up an additional 2 GD to win.Bottom line: any result for NYC or dropped points for DC and NYC stays ahead. Barring that, however, tiebreakers favor DC.

2. Columbus
5 points back, 2 to play.
Away Orlando, Home Minnesota. The easiest remaining schedule in the league. H/A adjusted PPG 0.79.
The Crew have to win both to have a chance, but the schedule is ridiculously easy. If they win out and NYC gets 1 point it is a tie. Any NYC win clinches. If they draw on points they will be tied on wins. Crew GD is -2, which is 16 behind NYC, so they have to win each game by 7-9 goals to overtake NYC.
Bottom line: any result for NYC or dropped points for Columbus and NYC stays ahead, given the tiebreakers, with a minuscule chance of Columbus winning a GD tiebreaker.

3. Philadelphia
3 points back, 2 to play.
Home Red Bulls, Away NYCFC. Adjusted H/A Opponents’ PPG 1.94.
The Union need at least to match NYCFC in Week 33 and then control their destiny on Decision Day. If they fall behind by one more point it is over. If the teams finish tied on points, Philadelphia will have more wins.Bottom line: getting more points than the Union in Week 33 is key.

Summary:
I’m just assuming Columbus beats Orlando and Minnesota. OTOH, if DC drops points in the next 2 games against Dallas and Toronto, that solves DC. But even assuming DC wins the next 2:

A win in DC guarantees that NYC finishes ahead of DC and Columbus, and no lower than 4th.
A draw in DC guarantees NYC finishes ahead of DC and no lower than 5th. If Red Bulls also beat the Union, then NYC finishes no lower than Fourth. If Orlando beats or even draws Columbus the world ends, but NYC finishes ahead of the Crew as well. Also NYC finishes ahead of CLB in GD tiebreaker barring oodles of goals by Columbus.
A Loss in DC means Decision Day is really scary, unless (1) DC first drops points to either Dallas or Toronto, and (2) Columbus drops points to Orlando.

]]>http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2018/10/08/nycfc-playoff-seeding-status-summary/feed/0908Exploring the Reasons For NYCFC’s Disappointing Second Half Under Dome Torrenthttp://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2018/10/06/exploring-the-reasons-for-nycfcs-disappointing-second-half-under-dome-torrent/
http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/2018/10/06/exploring-the-reasons-for-nycfcs-disappointing-second-half-under-dome-torrent/#respondSat, 06 Oct 2018 23:55:44 +0000http://citybluesbythenumbers.com/?p=904I started looking into Vieira/Torrent splits and found some interesting things. Some offer obvious conclusions, but others not so much.

Click on the images in that tweet and you will see that NYCFChas been much more active on defense under Torrent. His graph does not seem to offer a H/A split, but I think it is likely most of this activity is in Away games.

At home, every number has moved in the wrong direction. Home goals per game and xGoals per game are both down (though the latter by an insignificant amount). Also at home, opponent Goals and xGoals have gone up.

Away, however, NYC goals are down but xGoals are up by a meaningful amount. Opponents goals also are down, while their xGoals are way, way lower.
Under Vieira in 2018, NYCFC gave up an average of 1.7625 xGoals per game Away, and that is down to 1.2975 under Dome. Under Vieira, road opponents never accumulated fewer that 1.4 xG per game in 8 games. Under Torrent, they only exceeded 1.4 xG twice in 8 games.

This chart also shows that in all 4 areas: Home goals for and against, and Away goals for and against, the actual goal change has been worse for Dome than the xGoal change.

I do believe that the improvements in Away xGFor and xGAgainst are big enough that it shows real improvement, especially because Torrent has discussed his emphasis on improving road form. NYCFC’s xG differential has improved by 0.801 per game on the road. I tend to give people credit when they say “my goal is to improve X” and then X improves.

Next I focused on how NYCFC has performed relative to xGoals under Vieira and Torrent. The results are not surprising given the table above, and everything we have seen and discussed the last 2 months.

First 2 lines show the difference between actual goals per game and xGoals per game. In every instance + means the team did better than expected and – means the team did worse than expected. This is where the big dispute comes in regarding whether you think performance relative to Expected Goals is mostly luck, or not. Because again in all 4 categories the team was “luckier” under Vieira than for Torrent, and for NYCFC’s Home goals scored, the difference is massive. Can bad luck be this consistent? I honestly don’t know. Logic cuts both ways. On one hand it seems unlikely that luck would point the same way in all contexts and subdivisions, unless there was a reason outside of luck. On the other hand, there is no reason why the non-lucky explanations should correspond with each other. For example, you might explain the poor results relative to xG scored as being due to a less aggressive, vertical offense in transition. But just because that is true does not suggest a substantive reason for why the club should also underperform on defense. Whether you think it is luck, or there are substantive explanations, you might expect them to be independent.

For additional context, I note that for the entire season, only 5 MLS teams are underperforming relative to xGoals at home. That’s pretty normal. In 2017 6 teams did that, in 2016 – 5, 2015 – 8, and in 2014 – 4 teams. Simply put: Most teams outperform xGoals at Home. Further, underperforming xG at home by -0.443 per game is very unusual. Since and including 2014 through 2018 to date, only 4 teams have underperformed xG by worse than -0.3 per game over an entire season. Now, Dome’s NYCFC team has done this over just 9 Home games, not a full season. Extreme and unusual results are more likely over half seasons than over full seasons. But I still think it is fair to say this result is anomalous. Being so much worse at scoring Goals at Home than accumulating xG is just wrong and unusual.

As a bit more background, it is not unusual for a team to have a wild swing in its performance relative to xG in the middle of a season. For example, here are the GD-xGD figures for 2016 NYCFC and 2017 FCD in the first 17 games compared to the last 17 games:

And here is the split and swing for 2018 NYCFC under PV and under DT:
NYCFC 2018 PV/DT GD-xGD 0.484/-0.478 Swing 0.962

GD-xGD combines both offense and defense, and Home and Away. Are these big swings due to luck or something else? You can explain 2016 NYCFC based on the team getting used to PV’s new system. You can explain this year with the coaching change. I confess I am less familiar with 2017 FC Dallas than either NYCFC iteration, but they had no coaching change and they had an important player, Mauro Diaz, return from injury about 40% into the season. Yet they had an enormous negative swing with no clearly obvious cause. So is it mostly luck, really? Are the NYCFC splits that seem to be based on coaching changes just a pair of big coincidences?

Also, The H/A weighted PPG of opponents facing PV was 1.42, and for Dome to date it is only 1.30. But Dome had more injuries, and a lot of odd double game weeks and rough travel.

I think the data supports enough variations in conclusions that people can argue, but I believe the following with various degrees of confidence.

I think the improved xG figures, on both offense and defense under Torrent, represent something real.
I believe the deteriorated results relative to xG is based both on luck and controllable factors.
I think Torrent has focused on Away form, and controlling possession in the midfield, and defending in the midfield.
I think the poor results relative to xGoal is based on lack of performance in the final third on both ends.
I believe NYCFC’s attack is less direct and gives teams more time to get in front of their goal.
On defense, I look at 3 of the worst games relative to xG (at Chicago, at Seattle, and at Minnesota), and can remember individual plays where an opponent broke us down and/or an NYCFC defender messed up, leading to easy goals against the run of play.
I think this combination of effects can be in sum caused by a team that is uncertain of how to play a new system, combined with a technical emphasis on midfield play.
I fully expect this to improve.
Despite a half-season under the new coach, I believe that whether this does or does not improve in time for the playoffs will mostly be luck, if only because of a super small sample size.
I strongly expect this to improve next year.
I fear it might not improve early, due to roster turnover and a guess that Dome is — believe it or not — holding back, and that next year will bring even more changes for the team to acclimate itself to.