Orioles-Nation.comFor Orioles Fans, By Orioles Fans2013-03-09T14:08:07-05:00http://orioles-nation.com/forums/feed.php?t=19072013-03-09T14:08:07-05:002013-03-09T14:08:07-05:00http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1907&p=19348#p19348With Markakis,McClouth and Reimold able to lead off and capable back-ups at 2b, BR playing and playing well would be a great addition instead of being a key to our season.

rudyrooster wrote:Reality is that none of us KNOW what to expect from BRob as the team moves forward in 2013. Maybe he IS finally healthy enough again to regain some of his previous form. Then again, he may well "flame out" in short order. We just don't know and that's the reality of this situation. All those whom claim they know what's gonna happen with BRob are either just overly optimistic or on the negative side are "grinding an axe" for whatever reasons. I wish him all the best this spring and upcoming season. For the team's sake, I hope he returns this season to become a positive contributor to another playoff run...that's my take.

No one is saying that we can predict the future... in fact I've specifically said just the opposite multiple times.

But you're stating a false equivalence when you claim that "reality" of the situation is those with high expectations and those with low expectations are equally clueless. That's simply not true.

We have some information at our disposal. It tells us that Brian Roberts is no longer good. That doesn't mean it's impossible for him to exceed those reasonable expectations. And it doesn't mean someone has an "axe to grind" if they point out that it would be an historical and statistical anomaly for him to do so.

Your post is a straw man argument combined with a false equivalence. It's a straw man because no one is saying they know with absolute certainty what Roberts is going to do this season. And it's a false equivalence because it simply isn't true that anyone with a positive expectation has the same amount of evidence for their position as someone with a negative expectation.

The "reality" of the situation is that there's ample evidence to suspect that Roberts will have a bad season, though saying so is not the same as saying we can be certain that he is going to have a bad season. See the distinction? It's a matter of probability.

There's no reason I should have to say this, but I will, since there seems to be some sort of bizarre belief that the one could only believe Roberts' career is over if they're a "hater," as opposed to someone who looks at available evidence and draws the most logical conclusion. Anyway: Brian Roberts is one of my favorite Orioles I've ever watched, and I'd be delighted to see him have a good season.

I should also point out that there's no contradiction between drawing kne's expectations from sound statistical analysis, and simultaneously rooting for a different outcome. Nothing about being informed prevents you from also behaving like a fan.

rudyrooster wrote:Reality is that none of us KNOW what to expect from BRob as the team moves forward in 2013. Maybe he IS finally healthy enough again to regain some of his previous form. Then again, he may well "flame out" in short order. We just don't know and that's the reality of this situation. All those whom claim they know what's gonna happen with BRob are either just overly optimistic or on the negative side are "grinding an axe" for whatever reasons. I wish him all the best this spring and upcoming season. For the team's sake, I hope he returns this season to become a positive contributor to another playoff run...that's my take.

]]>2013-03-05T19:53:29-05:002013-03-05T19:53:29-05:00http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1907&p=19265#p19265Statistics: Posted by rudyrooster — March 5th, 2013, 7:53 pm
]]>2013-03-05T19:47:49-05:002013-03-05T19:47:49-05:00http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1907&p=19263#p19263Statistics: Posted by osforlife — March 5th, 2013, 7:47 pm
]]>2013-03-05T19:13:34-05:002013-03-05T19:13:34-05:00http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1907&p=19261#p1926135. There is NO way he comes close to that line. Best case scenario to me would be in the .250-.260/.330//420 range with average defense and decent speed. I think he can do that if he stays healthy but as most have stated that is not all that likely. I like that he's had a semi normal offseason to prepare and it's not like he's had a lot of wear and tear on his body the past few years because he hasn't played. He deserves a roster spot but I wouldn't let the leash stretch too long. Letting him go will be difficult and I hope he stays healthy and relatively productive so that decision won't have to be made during the season.

Seafordeagles wrote:The blind faith quote was because you said that to me. I guess I'll move my ignorant self on..................

I understand what you meant. I just want to point out that only one of us is openly disavowing the relevance of past performance in projecting future performance (which is an act of willful ignorance).

A_K wrote:Projections are not gospel, no one can predict the future, and WAR is not a perfect stat. I've said this twice so far today.

But to say that we don't know anything, that projections mean "absolutely nothing" and that projections are "totally blind faith" is not only demonstrably wrong but also willfully ignorant. Feel free to live in the dark, but don't pretend that everyone is blind as well.

If I smoke the rest of my life, I might not get lung cancer. But we do know-- for a fact-- that smoking increases your risk of getting cancer.

The blind faith quote was because you said that to me. I guess I'll move my ignorant self on..................

Projections aren't meant to predict this year's performance. They're meant to give us a sense of reasonable expectations. Every player's projections contain a sizable margin of error to both the positive and negative side.

ofahn wrote:Casilla and Flaherty will be better defenders than Roberts, Johnson, or most of the other 2B we could have obtained over the winter. I would rather have good defense at 2B before the extra few OPS points of a Kelly Johnson.

I'd rather have the player that best combines hitting, fielding and base running to provide his team with the most positive value over the course of the season. Based on all of the evidence that's available to us, Kelly Johnson is that player. (Which does not by any stretch of the imagination mean that he's guaranteed to have the best season, just that he has the best chance to have the best season.)

Seafordeagles wrote:Nobody has evidence because you "have to play the game" and please no more zip quotes and war quotes. Projections mean absolutely nothing, these stat projections are totally blind faith.

Projections are not gospel, no one can predict the future, and WAR is not a perfect stat. I've said this twice so far today.

But to say that we don't know anything, that projections mean "absolutely nothing" and that projections are "totally blind faith" is not only demonstrably wrong but also willfully ignorant. Feel free to live in the dark, but don't pretend that everyone is blind as well.

If I smoke the rest of my life, I might not get lung cancer. But we do know-- for a fact-- that smoking increases your risk of getting cancer.

A_K wrote:That means Roberts has been a bad defender along with a bad hitter in each season after 2008. It also means he's been worse than Johnson in each of those seasons. And it's downright terrifying to think about how bad he was at defense last season, given how few games he played while putting up such an ugly defensive number.

For argument's sake let's say that those stats MIGHT predict this year's performance. Casilla and Flaherty will be better defenders than Roberts, Johnson, or most of the other 2B we could have obtained over the winter. I would rather have good defense at 2B before the extra few OPS points of a Kelly Johnson.