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Sunday, January 20, 2008

Guest Tips Here : Part II

Hi friends,

Starting a new thread for Guest Tips here as the old one was full to the brim and the page was taking a long time to load. Use this new thread to post your tips and queries. I will try to answer as many as possible, whenever I can. But you people can answer each other also, if you can. If you are addressing your question to me then please restrict your queries to a maximum of TWO Stocks at a time.

These are all Jan future postions. Though I have suffered heavy losses in maintaining these postions, I would be grateful if you could tell me from your great understanding of this market...How long would I have to wait to exit at par.

Hi Pradeep,Wait for some more time before buying Suzlon. Power/Energy stocks were some of the most overvalued stocks in the market due to the build-up for the Reliance Power IPO. Let the market stabilize first.

Hi Sriram,You can hold both the scrips for long term. You can't lose much from present levels.

Hi Manjunath,I had given a sell call on GMR Infra at 250. I would still prefer to buy a JK Lakshmi Cement rather than GMR at current levels.

Hi Malkeet,Anyone would be shaken when they will see a sea of red on their screen like what happened today. You seem to be a fan of the Reliance pack, but you bought all of them at high prices. It doesn't make sense to sell them after today's unprecedented fall. I would wait for a bounce, which should come sooner than later.

Hi Cancermoney,I would avoid IFCI altogether. One can take a chance in Ispat for a bounce but that too is a big risk. Why don't you play safe and buy a good value stock like JK Lakshmi Cement after today's fall. It is wiser to stick with value stocks rather than play momentum now.

Hi Sunil,Cybermate Info got lucky today that it had a circuit limit of 5% only. Other stocks fell 20-30% today. I have advised to make a decision on it after seeing the quarterly results, and maintain a stop loss of 14.

SuperstarI have a basic query on IPO listings. How does the IPO listing price (when it debuts on the market) decided? For instance, what are the factors deciding how much would the Reliance Power IPO gets listed for? Does the number of times it got oversubscribed make a difference?

I like Sah petro as it is available at low PE, has good expansion in the pipeline and very little resistance from clients to the company's products. The icing on the cake is that their prices are based on oil @$100 a barrel and every drop in oil prices will boost profits. I have purchased 10000 shares at 14 and would like to add another 10000 at sub 20 level. What is your view;

I am struggling to get some liquid cash to put into the stock market. I have some 55,000 shares of Cybermate Infotech @ 16.22. Do you think it would be wise of me to sell half of it @ 13.5 to 15.00 and put money into some good stocks like Jindal Steel (which fell by 27 %), JK Lakshmi or Alps Industries?

Hi Maverick,The market forces of demand and suppy decide the listing price of any IPO. A good measure of that is the price prevailing in the grey market. The grey market is an unofficial market where new shares are traded even before they are listed.The number of times an IPO gets oversubscribed gives an indication of the pent up demand for that stock.

Hi Sandeep,Out of the three names you've mentioned, I like JK Lakshmi Cement the best. It presents the best value for money at current level. It wouldn't be a bad idea to convert part of your holdings in Cybermate into JK Lakshmi if the idea is to play safe.

Hi Superstar,I appreciate all your advices in good times. From your comments/advice to Sunil/Sandeep you have suggested him to go with JK cement rather than cybermate to be on a safer side and you have also mentioned to keep a stoploss of 14 on cybermate. It appears to me that you are now not positive on cybermate as you are before. Seeking your advice we have entered cybermate at almost Rs.18 levels. Could you please advice us why your opinion is negative on cybermate now.

ThanksHari

Your reply to Sunil/Sandeep:**************************Hi Sunil,Cybermate Info got lucky today that it had a circuit limit of 5% only. Other stocks fell 20-30% today. I have advised to make a decision on it after seeing the quarterly results, and maintain a stop loss of 14.

Cheers!

Hi Sandeep,Out of the three names you've mentioned, I like JK Lakshmi Cement the best. It presents the best value for money at current level. It wouldn't be a bad idea to convert part of your holdings in Cybermate into JK Lakshmi if the idea is to play safe.

Hi Hari,My view is NOT negative on Cybermate. It is just that on a RELATIVE BASIS, JK LAKSHMI CEMENT is a better buy TODAY out of the two. It presents better value and has a better track record of giving consistently high earnings and dividend payouts.

You say 'I appreciate all your advices in good times.' So you don't appreciate my advice in bad times? This is the problem with the Investors' mindset today. They are very gung-ho and upbeat when the times are good, but they have forgotten that the Markets can FALL also. They have become so used to seeing stocks hitting Upper Circuits everyday that they have completely forgotten that the markets can go down also.

The Indian Investors had become too complacent. The current fierce correction in the entire market will jolt them out of their complacency.

Hi Superstar, At these sad moments of stock market mayhem , i am in no worries yet, no doubt my profits are washed away i took this fall as a boon to take new posoitions. As i like your recomendations i took positions in JK Lakshmi and Cybermate at yesterdays prices... hope markets will recover soon...

Hi Pradeep,Triveni Eng has been a market fancied stock for long. Although the company has a good business model, valuations are stretched according to me. I would not advise fresh buying in it.

Hi Vickys & Rama kanth,I had advised to keep a Stop Loss of 14 on Cybermate. It's price movement will now depend on what kind of results it delivers. I do not track WWIL and don't have much knowledge on that company's business so I won't be able to comment on WWIL.

Ramakanth, I don't think you can find the updated PE of stocks on any website. I think you may find the daily updated PE of stocks in the stock price listings of the Economic Times newspaper. Check.

Hi Mahabirajesh,The dates of qtrly results of all companies are first announced on the BSE website. You can keep a track on them at www.bseindia.com. I don't think the date of Cybermate's results is announced as yet.

Hi Amol,Jai Corp seems to be in a trading range right now with the lower end being around 800 levels. If you have a risk taking appetite you may take an exposure for short term gains with a SL of 725. But keep in mind that it is a risky stock at present levels. JP Assoc is also a market fancied stock and you may buy it on dips, with strict stop losses.

Hi Harpreet,Gufic had a fantastic run after my reco, from 13 to 28 within 3-4 weeks. I had advised booking profits repeatedly around 25-27 levels on the way up.Jayaswal Neco moved from 30 to my first target of 82 recently where I had adviced a Profit Lock of 80. People who followed my advice on both these stocks made plenty of money. Jayaswal Neco can be bought for long term also on dips.

Hi Sameer/Ayaz,Almost every small stock with a Price of less than Rs. 30 has been going down continuously for a few days. Cybermate Infotek has been no exception. The recent stock market crash has spared no one. The silver lining is that unlike other penny stocks which have no fundamentals, Cybermate Info has good fundamentals. One should just look out for the Dec qtr results now and take a decision accordingly. If the results are good then one can buy more at lower levels to average the cost. But let's wait for the results which should be out soon.

I HAVE BEEN EVALUATING YOUR COMMENTS FOR SOME TIME NOW AND FIND THEM VERY USEFUL FOR A COMMON RETAIL INVESTOR WHO DOES NEED SOME RESEARCH BASED ADVICE AND KNOWLEDGE TO MAKE MONEY IN THIS HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKET.

I WOULD WANT TO KNOW YOUR VIEWS ON THE INDIAN MARKETS IN SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM .

WHAT I FEEL IS THAT PAST 3/4 MONTHS (EVER SINCE THE SUBPRIME CRISIS HAPPENNED) , MARKETS HAVE BEEN REACTING TO NEWS , MAINLY NEGATIVE, THAT HAVE BEEN EMANATING FROM THE U.S. .

THE NEXT 3/4 MONTHS WOULD ACTUALLY GIVE A CLEAR PICTURE OF QUANTITATIVE VALUE OF U.S. RECESSION . THE MARKETS WOULD REACT DEPENDING ON WHAT IMPACT OCCURS ON OUR INDIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH CYCLE. SO , WOULDN'T IT BE PRUDENT FOR A RETAIL INVESTOR TO STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKETS FOR A WHILE AND COME BACK ONLY WHEN THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED .

Hi Saurabh_novice,In the age of Internet Trading, News flow is a very important factor which moves the markets. News which would have taken days to reach from one part of the globe to the other, now travels within nano-seconds. Hence you see such high volatility. This is not a good time for traders who trade in FNO. They should stay away from the market else they run a high risk of losing money. But this is a good time for a Long Term Investor who wants to build a portfolio. One can use the current mayhem to accumulate quality stocks like JK Lakshmi Cement. The next couple of triggers for the Indian Markets are the Reliance Power IPO listing and then the Budget.

Hi Nirakar,I am not comfortable buying majority of real estate stocks right now and that includes Unitech. I think real estate prices in India need to cool off now. A serious correction in the property prices has not happened in the last two and a half years and may happen anytime in the next one year from today.

Hi Saurabh,Agrodutch had a good run after I recommended it around 25 few months back. It is a good value stock which can be accumulated on dips for long term.

Hi Kane,Thanks for your appreciation.I had advised a sell on Hind Oil exploration few weeks earlier also. I think it is still overvalued. There is not much historic data available on Indowind, being a new listing, but still I think it is overvalued at cmp.I understand that by RELGOL you are referring to the Reliance Gold ETF. I don't take much interest in mutual funds but I can say that Gold Funds are not likely to give great returns in the long term. Gold funds perform well in times of uncertainty but over a longer period they tend to underperform other mutual funds.

Cheers!

PS: If you are a long term investor, I would recommend you buy JK Lakshmi Cement.

Thanx for the reply, i also want to know about TTML, i have bought it at high level,around 60-62 level.It is currentely traded in 35-37 level.should i buy more to level the stock ? and can i hold it for a long period of time say 2-3 years from now, or i should sell it when i got my cost price ?

You purchased TTML at a high price. I don't think averaging is a good idea now. You can hold for a bounce but I am not sure if you would recover your cost price in a hurry. For fresh buying I prefer JK Lakshmi Cement.

Hi Milliondoller,My comments on Cybermate are posted in the latest thread and also in the topic of Cybermate.

Hi Superstar.What are your views on the following 4 stocks? They seem to have a good business model, good eps, dividend paying history.- Lakshmi electrical control systems- Core technology and projects- Maharasthtra seamless- Zuari Industries.You have recommended HPCl as a long term buy. Do you still maintain this now that the last quarter they have reported losses?regardsvenu

I had initially put a buy on PTC around 90 levels 3-4 months back after which it has seen levels of approx. 200. It is a richly valued company because of its future growth prospects over the next 2-3 years. At present one can hold it with a Stop Loss of 116.Steelco Guj is as yet a loss making company and I haven't seen its Dec qtr results yet. I would give this one a miss. There are much better buys available in the market.

Hi Venu/Paddy,Lakshmi Elec is a good hold and buy on dips. Core projects is not that exciting, I'll give it a miss.Maharashtra Seamless is fairly valued at present. At best, a hold.Zuari Ind is also fairly valued. I would avoid Fertilizer stocks at present.

Hi Krunal,LMW is a hold at current price and buy on dips. Teledata's management is a rogue management and they play with the stock price at will. I do not understand that company. It's a gamblers stock. You want to gamble your money, your choice. You may win big or you may lose big. Cybermate came out with decent numbers for the Dec quarter and one can hold it at present. If the company continues to better its earnings figures, it may be a multibagger in the long term.

Hi again, Paddy/Venu,Forgot to answer about HPCL. I had given a buy call on HPCL some months back on this site around the price of 250 after which it went to 400 plus levels. Now again it is available cheap and can be bought for long term. Fuel prices may be raised this week.

I have bought Network 18 today. I was looking at its results and it had good results in the Dec 07 quarters and all its channels are doing good. Can you throw some light on this one. Is this a good buy?

This query is regarding South Asian Petrochem. It has reported a weak quarter. Profit has declined 83% and sales has also declined. Can I hold this or do you believe this is an opportunity for buy more? Why has profit declined? How do we analyze this? Pl. educate us on how to do such analysis.Thanks and regards.,Venu.

Hi Venu,I had commented on SAPL after its Dec qtr results earlier also. It has indeed posted dismal results. Only the management of the company can answer why the Topline and bottomline both have declined in this qtr. But still, on valuation parameters there is not much downside from the current levels of 22. The stock did enjoy a good run to 40 plus levels after my reco around 25 last time. One can hold this stock with a SL of 19for a medium term target of 31-35 now, depending upon its earnings performance in the next few qtrs and the overall market scenario.

Hi Krunal,I do not have any target for such a short term (before the budget). I had given a buy call on Cybermate Info at exactly 11.51 for the medium to long term. It rallied to 18.90 levels immediately after my call. A Stop Loss of 14 was also given by me. It has now gone below the call price in the recent stock market crash along with the rest of the market.

Another question on Cybermate. I have large quantity of same at 16.00. Unfortunately, I did not sell it at 14 as you had advised. So what do you think I should do now? I can keep it for about a year. Do you think it will come back or do you think i should book losses and switch to something else?

Hi Vivek,That's a tricky call now. You should have followed the Stop Loss given strictly. The entire market is tanking indiscriminately. When big stocks like Reliance Power and other heavy weights are crashing, nothing can be said about the likes of cybermate. Much better quality stocks are available now at throwaway prices, so it may take a lot of time before attention comes back on small stocks. Take your own call now. Let us hope that the market will stabilize soon.

I guess I'll sell part of my investment in Cybermate and put it in some other stocks. I have accumulated JK Lakshmi too. Can you please tell me how can I check the PE values for stocks and how to find out low PE stocks?

Hi Vivek,PE means the Price to Earnings ratio. Divide the current market price of a stock with its current annual EPS and you will get the PE of that stock. The earnings data is available at the exchange sites.

Hi Experimentor,Contrary to popular belief of many tv analysts, I will give a SELL rating on Educomp. I think it is one of the most overhyped stocks in the Indian stock markets currently. Remember, I had given the same call on GMR Infra at 250 and Reliance Energy around 2550.

Hi Krunal,Sometimes when the market throws a punch at you, you have to stand your ground and take it on the chin. I wouldn't sell it at cmp if I was in your position. Since you say you can hold it for the next 3 months. Then wait patiently and hope for the best. There's hardly anybody in the market right now who is not in losses. Every stock is down substantially.

Hi Naveen.,Thanks for being very candid about Educomp. Whatever be the gr8 businessmodel, the price does not justify. You are the only bold one to say it and publish it. what is your opinion on Educatoin segment and IT aided education? Would you recommend a buy on Core projects? The prices are very low,thanksvenu

Hi Raghav,I was asked a question on XL Tele earlier also and I had advised profit booking. It has fallen after that and at cmp of 309, I would still not recommend a buy on it.

Hi Venu,Instead of taking a view on an entire sector, it is better to decide on stocks individually. There is no historic data available on Core Projects on the exchanges so I won't be able to comment on it.

Thanks Superstar for your correct guidance asking us to take a stock specific view. I find Madhav Marbles and Granite available at half the BV. However last quarter profit has declines. Can this be a good buy at this level? On the same token is Murdeswar Ceramic worth accumulating? thanks Venu

Hi Venu,As you rightly pointed out the results of last qtr of Madhav were not good. What has happened after the recent meltdown in the markets is that the price targets will now have to be revised downwards as PE ratios have come down across the board. It can be bought at cmp but one should keep moderate targets now. Ditto is the case with Murudeshwar.

Hi Amol,You bought Arvind at a very high price. I had recommended it around 43 levels some months back after which it saw highs of 80 plus. Instead of buying more Arvind at current level. I would recommend you book a loss in it and switch to JKLAKSHMI Cement completely at cmp.

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Thanks for visiting my blogspot. I live in India but consider myself a World Citizen. I have varied interests ranging from the Stock Markets, Astrology to Acting/Writing in Movies. Hope we can share our views and interact with each other through this website.
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Disclaimer

All information posted on this web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Under no circumstances is this an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities discussed on this site. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. I have positions in some of the companies discussed. All data, information and opinions are subject to change without notice. (c) 2007 All Copyrights belong to Superstar