SPRING NOTES: A six-day spring assessment of the Giants

Wow, nothing like making my Arizona getaway a tester. A 3 1/2-hour, 12-11 night game in the boondocks of Goodyear, just about the most wretched locale in the Valley of the Sun, particularly when it’s nearly 40 miles from where I’ve been staying this week in Scottsdale.

Not much to say about the game other than the fact that it was a night for the hitters. Ryan Vogelsong gave up 11 hits and nine runs in 2 2/3 innings and wasn’t all that disappointed. Go figure. We’ll see how it goes next time out, but you can’t put too much on outings like this at this stage of spring, particularly on a night when the ball is flying like a golf ball. Pablo Sandoval, Hector Sanchez and Tyler Colvin went deep early, and they were all massive blasts.

It’s hard to say how Colvin stands, but at least by hitting a homer and nearly nailing a second that went foul, he’s back on the radar. If he’s healthy, he could really help give the Giants some power punch off the bench, although he hasn’t played much in the field and you wonder if Juan Perez may still have the inside track. One for Alex to ferret out when he returns on Thursday.

It was another good day for Brandon Hicks, who has really put himself in the mix for the Opening Day roster with his play in the field and at the plate. He’s an aggressive hitter with some pop, and he’s hitting .419 after his second spring homer. Backup second baseman could a very important job with the Giants, too, what with Marco Scutaro’s health situation. It’s a real job to win, and it’s hard to see how Hicks isn’t in the lead at this point.

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So now to the matter at hand, the as-promised summary of my week watching the Giants. Be advised that I gave a glowing review to the A’s at this point last week and they’re literally in a world of hurt now with two starters down, one for the season. Things can change rapidly in this game, although I did note in my Oakland assessment that health would be a crucial factor in their winning a third straight American Leagues West title. They didn’t listen.

The Giants? From this view, health is even more important, and this spring hasn’t been very encouraging. You’ve got Scutaro’s cranky back, Angel Pagan’s slightly disconcerting back tightness, Michael Morse’s calf. Questions remain about Jeremy Affeldt, who is coming off serious groin surgery. There has been some concerned expressed about Sergio Romo not throwing his slider early in camp, but it appears he’d just been waiting to unveil it. It’s looked as sharp and unhittable as ever in his last two outings.

There is also the issue of age. The core is still young with Buster Posey, Sandoval and the two Brandons, Belt and Crawford. Pence plays young for his age and is about as durable as they get. But the Giants are going to be relying on a lot of guys in their 30s again — Pagan, Scutaro, Affeldt, Morse, Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla, and then in the rotation, Tim Hudson and Vogelsong. At some point, veteran presence translates to “just old.” I don’t know where the Giants stand yet on that count, but last year’s finish does not exactly inspire confidence.

The National League West is going to be tough. The Dodgers are the World Series favorites. Arizona, even without Patrick Corbin, will be a challenger. The Padres keep getting better. And the Rockies still have Tulo and Cargo, plus enough starting pitching to keep teams honest. What’s remarkable is that the Giants actually had the best record within the division last year. But they stunk against teams like the Cubs. They had a winning record against teams over .500, they were 32-44 against teams under .500. Please explain, Bruce Bochy.

They were also terrible at home, just 42-40. In short, the Giants didn’t take advantage of AT&T Park, and that’s totally mystifying, too, particularly with the place packed every night.

But most of all, they didn’t stay healthy. Pagan, Scutaro, Sandoval, Affeldt. Posey wore down, likely a 2012 hangover. The same could be said for Matt Cain. His ERA was his highest in seven years, and he failed to go 200 innings for the first time in six seasons.

But now the 2014 good news. Posey beefed up a bit and looks like he’s ready for 162 (or at least the 145 he plays). Sandoval is in shape for change, eager for his contract payoff, and he’s already broken both hamates, so that won’t be an issue anymore. Belt, despite his spring illness, is looking like he’ll pick up where he left off last year. Crawford may have gained the most from the Barry Bonds session, and of course, he’s a stud defensively.

Pitching-wise, Madison Bumgarner looks primed for a monster season. He looks absolutely great. It’s not silly to consider him the ace at this point. The question is who’s No. 2? It was a wash right now with Hudson, Tim Lincecum and Cain, with Vogelsong fifth. I love Hudson, always have, I just wonder what he’s got left at 38 coming off major ankle surgery. He’s one of the great bulldogs, though, and he could be a monster at AT&T. He’s a big step up from Barry Zito if he makes 25-30 starts, because he always keeps his team in the game.

I have high hopes for Lincecum making the transition from power pitcher to a change-of-speeds, pitch-to-contact starter. I saw much progress in August and September last year, and I’m betting on a bounce-back year, particularly considering the faith the Giants have shown in him by lavishing him with $35 million. Cain is the guy that’s the big question mark for me, but then again, I look at his history other than last year and ask why. Vogelsong has been up and down in spring, but the Giants have pitchers coming if he’s not up to it. I have no issues with Yusmeiro Petit. He’s nice insurance to have. Edwin Escobar could be here at some point. His fastball is a sight to see, and now it’s a matter of adding a good secondary pitch or two.

My real concerns are the bullpen. Do the Giants have enough? Is there a young stud who can step in and help like Heath Hembree? Can Dan Runzler, who’s looked like the old Runzler this spring, be a factor? Where does George Kontos fit? Or Jean Machi? Kontos was terrific in 2012, not so in 2013.

Right now, I don’t think the Giants are good enough to win the division. I do believe they can make the playoffs as a wild card, but it will require a lot of finger-crossing and things falling right. Suffice it to say it’s a crucial year after a disappointing 2013. Another one like last season and Brian Sabean and Co. have to start thinking about some radical changes as opposed to maintaining as much World Series status quo as possible.

Face it, the Giants set a high bar for themselves in 2010 and 2012. Fans expect a lot. Nothing short of a return to the playoffs will suffice, but it’s going to take everything they’ve got, plus some surprises thrown in.
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And with that, we’re packing up and heading back to Cali. As we say goodbye, we’ll fire up the My Morning Jacket version of John Denver’s “Leavin’ On A Jet Plane.” Just an absolutely brilliant cover of a song I wasn’t particularly crazy about until I heard Jim James lay into it.

Well darn, now I’m depressed about the team’s prospects after reading Carl’s review (the irony being that I almost never read the articles, always catching up so I just read the headline and go straight to the posts). He’s probably right though about the team having to get in via the wild card; once the Smogdogs put things together they are going to be tough to beat.

I don’t believe that the fringe spots are really all that open to competition. If Hicks makes the team then of course I am wrong but Arias will start if Scuturo can’t go and Abreu with his MLB contract and Adrienza with his lack of options will be on the team. Returning guys like Machi and Perez are locks in my book Kontos, Colvin etc. will be in the minors.

Just curious, is there anyone here who didn’t already consider Bumgarner to be the ace? I suspect Carl was the last one to come around on that.

Foothills Ryan

Yay Walter! Sing the blues! Is that one of your sons?

DrLefty

I agree with some of Carl’s summary but not all of it. In a week of grim news about pitchers’ elbows, most of the health “concerns” he mentioned are relatively minor. Morse already said he’d have been playing through it if it weren’t spring training. Affeldt says he feels great and has mostly been pitching fine. Scutaro actually played in a game, and that’s ahead of what we all thought. I don’t like Pagan being out, but no one has suggested it’s anything serious. I heard Bochy say a couple days ago that the Giants were fortunate compared to other NL West teams in health, and I’d have to agree.

I don’t quite follow Carl’s “Cain’s a question mark but I’m not sure why.” Granted, Cain had his only bad outing on Carl’s watch, but I saw his previous start, and he looked as good as he’s ever been. Cain’s second half last year suggests there’s nothing to worry about there.

I do agree with the concerns about the bullpen being old. And I wasn’t that worried about Vogelsong’s first bad outing (I was there for that, too) because he wasn’t especially being hit hard, and then he followed it up with a good outing. Now I’m concerned. Wind or no wind, they have to hit it before the wind can take it anywhere. And there were a lot of singles and doubles (11 hits in 2.2 innings) to go with any “wind-aided” homers. And I don’t quite agree with the “help on the way” comment if Vogelsong isn’t up to the fifth starter role.

Public_Service_forthe_Ignorati

A fair assessment, I think. It’ll take some magic to win the division, and a little luck to get to a play-in game.

Understandable. But does anyone remember they traded a top pitching prospect a year ago to get Gregorius? Also: Gregorius appears to be a good field-no/maybe hit young player. With the epidemic of injuries to young pitchers, does he bring back a major-league ready starter all by himself?

Foothills Ryan

It’s kind of like shopping Brandon Crawford, no? What could you possibly get back. Sabean let Surkamp go for nothing. He picked up De Paula for nothing. Not that they are MLB ready, but maybe close enough. How’s Trevor Bauer doing these days?

Foothills Ryan

How long to you anticipate providing the service you do with that handle? I feel mildly insulted every time. Maybe I just need to get tougher skin.

The Oracle

I think that was a pretty fair assessment, but I also agree with what Lefty wrote below. I think they’ll have enough offense; this isn’t going to be another 2011. Like always, it’s going to come down to pitching, pitching, pitching. Although I hope to be proven wrong, I think Vogelsong is done and I wish they’d done more to improve the bullpen. I want to see Law and/or Hembree over Machi and/or Kontos. But more than anything else, I want the real games to start so we can all watch the story start to unfold.

Foothills Ryan

Putting together NL power rankings in my head. Cards up top. I think my Natitude wants to give them the edge over Los Bumbos. But who comes in after the division winners? Pirates? Reds? Giants? Braves? Diamondbacks? Giants have just as good a chance be #4 as the others. Pirates may not have done enough, but I like their momentum and farm.

The Oracle

I don’t know how you can criticize anyone who’s giving of themselves to provide a public service.

Foothills Ryan

Thankless job. Know what it’s like to have a thankless job? Yes you do. Thank you for all you put up with and all you do. This Bud’s for you.

DrLefty

This is the second time I’ve read this week that the Giants are “getting old.” (The Sporting News said “the lineup is getting old,” which is ridiculous: 4 of the 8 starters are well under 30, and Pence is a young 30. The bullpen IS old, and 40% of the rotation is over 35, so that part is fair.)

But I started thinking about the Dodgers, who actually ARE pretty old, and wondering why no one seems to think “old” is a problem for them. Consider:

Lineup: Ellis, Uribe, Gonzalez, Ramirez, Crawford, and Ethier are all over 30. Kemp will turn 30 this year. Bench guy Chone Figgins is well past 30. The only youth in the lineup is Puig and whoever plays 2B.

Rotation: Kershaw is young still, and so is Ryu. Greinke is 30. Billingsley is almost 30. Haren, Maholm, and Beckett are all over 30.

Bullpen: Jansen is young. Wilson and J.P. Howell are over 30. Chris Perez is almost 30. The youngsters in their bullpen (Withrow, Paco Martinez) appear ticketed for the minors.

Add to the basic rundown on ages that the Dodgers’ players have some serious health issues. Kemp, Crawford, and Hanley have had major problems staying on the field. Ethier is injury-prone. Beckett and Billingsley are coming back from major surgery. Haren has struggled with serious back issues. Wilson’s had two Tommy John surgeries.

I wonder why no one talks about this yet they dismiss the Giants as “old”?

DrLefty

I like the Cardinals. I think all around they’re the best team in the NL, and, unlike the Dodgers, they have youth and a good manager on their side.

DrLefty

Bauer is competing for the fifth starter spot in the Cleveland rotation. He may start the year in AAA, but he’s still considered among the Indians’ best prospects, and he only just turned 23. His velocity is good this spring (96-98), and he apparently is working well with Cleveland’s excellent pitching coach.

At this point, if you were handicapping, I’d predict the Indians are going to win the Bauer-for-Didi trade.

BALDHEADSLIK1

Vogey is pretty good @ flaring his nostrils and looking mean but thats about it! He’s a terrible pitcher at this point and he will not get any better, he will be replaced by his 6th7th start of the season. Bank on it.

2holehitting

///But they stunk against teams like the Cubs. ///
Music to my ears

2holehitting

pitching is and always has been their key from perception however from reality it was their bats that got them there in 2010 and 2012. In 2012 they scored 5 runs a game in the second half. In 2010 they had the HR surge in the second half that went un noticed.

Last year the rotation which had in the past had stretches of poorness had a season of seriously below mediocrity. This year they are counting on plenty of Pitching turn around from pretty much the same players. For a Team that used to have power pitchers throwing in the mid 90′s, they now have several that can barely touch 90 with consistency. That makes them all look the same in a series and even week hitters can turn on those.

My bet, the pitching gets knocked around again. I also see certain players go into prolonged slumps and 1 or 2 key injuries. It only takes 1 foul ball to knock Posey out for a day or 2 or several weeks to months. While I like Hector, not for a month stretch or more. Their depth of backups makes me cringe if they have to be everyday players.

Foothills Ryan

“Mr. March” is not having his best March – and that’s probably a good omen. For a guy projected to start tapping into his power potential, Belt has yet to clear a fence in the desert. His career ST OPS is over 1.000. He’s currently under .800. But, like I said, this is a good omen and he should be eligible to receive the ‘Mr. April thru September, sometimes October’ moniker.

Bapah

Any chance there is a way to delay AZ’s return from AUS until the night of the 30th? Would also like to place a hardcore SF contingent directly behind homeplate for the opener. I can’t put my finger on why I detest this team so much. Oh, wait… yes I can.

I did enjoy Lefty’s report that Bauer is doing well. Yeah, Uptown Cookie. Just another indication of misplaced priorities.

Foothills Ryan

Too bad Giants didn’t face Bauer in ST.

Bapah

DL, At what time of day do you think you’ll be offering your class? I’ve noted here that both your writing style and humor are somewhat different earlier than later. I’ll assume that same temporal disposition carries into the classroom. I saw a mullet yesterday that brought this to mind.

Hopper15

I definitely can’t wait until Escobar is in the rotation.

Mr. Sarcastic

“I know it sounds crazy with all the hits and runs on the board, but I felt good tonight,” said Vogelsong. “I’m not going to be discouraged at all by this. I was actually kind of happy the way the ball was coming out.”

Um, you are correct Vogey. It DOES sound crazy.

Hopper15

Just saw the clip of the homerun Sanchez hit last night. He absolutely crushed it.

Foothills Ryan

Read about last night’s game from Clevelands perspective-with quote from Tito:

“I thought Zach actually threw the ball pretty well,” said Francona.
“His missed locations on some of his pitches, but he actually threw the
ball pretty well. They had their hitting shoes on and so did we.”

Has the term ‘old’ you disliked so much a few days ago settled in for further examination?

Jesse

Vogelsong is washed up. End of story. Wasted my journey to go see a pathetic pitcher with lame excuses. At some point he has to admit (and giants management as well) that he just doesn’t have it. Btw, those delta gamma chicks from ASU at the game were pretty hottt

Jesse

If the Giants fail this year it aint going to be because of age.

ClutchUp

Humm babe – one goes to ST for the supposed love of the game….like JD…

ClutchUp

That was JD

ClutchUp

Love the hat!

ClutchUp

IT’S SPRING TRAINING (for ‘gawd’ sakes) We cheer long desert air assisted HR’s that we won’t see in the Reg season and yet we bemoan 9.00 ERA’s as if they might be cause for concern as well as Frenchy’s 3Run Tater allowing JF to make the Tribes 25 man roster…. Those who are around that game daily at the ML level know exactly what Vogey meant when he said “best stuff of the spring….not discouraged …. I felt really good tonight”…. MLBie won’t understand but she doesn’t always get it about anything.

Anti-Lasorda

Carl is always harsh, but fair. I think he’s pretty much right on.

Wildcard team. With Good health, could push the Dodgers but in the end fall up a little short if Mattingly can keep that engine from riding off the rails.

Health is crucial. The motor that made us win in 2012, and was paid for that off-season in 2013, 2014 & 2015 to the tune of $61M+ is vital to keep on the field and producing close to the same results. The season may hinge on the backs of two World Series heroes, three if you throw in Affeldt.

Interesting tweet by Schulman yesterday. He all but had Runzler make the team as the last/#7 reliever we assumed to be the ‘long man” role reserved for Petit (who’s been BP) and/or Huff who has been hurt. In his mind the pen is pretty much set. (Hembree, Machi, Runzler) discuss amoungst yourselves…

Anti-Lasorda

Delivery maybe a little rough, but he may have to very salient points. Vogey is not inspiring confidence this late in the spring and didn’t inspire enough for management to pick up his option. They panicked seeing the market in December, and brought him back. I still think the draft pick and the extra $9M for Santana for 1 year could be the difference between October and no October baseball… whoever the kid is they get with the pick is, he better be worth it.

But, unlike last year, there are viable options. I’ve felt for a while Vogelsong is never going to pitch in a standard 5 day rotation again. We’ll get spectacular outing from him, and some dogs. He just needs to sit on the dog days.

ClutchUp

Huff Daddy is back (probably via remote call in)
95.7 The Game adds ex-Giant Aubrey Huff to morning show

Foothills Ryan

Maybe Runzler instead of Hembree.

channelclemente

We’ll know by end of May, what’s in the tank.

ClutchUp

4SF

ClutchUp

ha-ha

ClutchUp

ETA for Matthew Ryan Kemp is May or June…

ClutchUp

ah, but there is always Theo and (another) new skipper in Rick Renteria. Theo has to always re-do everything …

Even Frenchy took him deep. But that still means nothing. Just one night. Read what I posted from Tito & the Plains Dealer.

ClutchUp

Another blue chipper who: took batting practice on Tuesday for the first time and said he was running at “90 percent.”

MESA, Ariz. — Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro, sidelined since March 2 with a strained right hamstring; Castro, who missed two weeks last spring with a strained left hamstring, did some running but did not run the bases.

Yep, it sure looked like Hector’s bomb left the stadium. (That was the consensus of those of us sitting behind the Giants’ dugout with no replay on camera.) Something in the air for a while early in the game was really carrying long balls. Lots of HR in Giants BP, and during the game there were several foul balls that were easily long enough to be HR, too.

He dun good. Give him some enchiladas, some confines of AT&T and maybe a lesser hitting opponent and he’ll be fine.

Dodgerblue

LOL

The Giants are basically carrying 3 guys who had ERAs over 4.00 and 2 of them over 5.00 last year. Volgesong is dead to me (pitching sense) LOL

Am predicting the Gnats 20 games out by June LOL

DrLefty

Ryan, you seem pretty determined that Hembree’s not going to make the team. This surprises me because he seems like a no-brainer: strong closer prospect who’s put in his time in the minors, new blood in an aging bullpen. What is it you don’t like about him?

Foothills Ryan

Ubaldo was the one to go for BTW. Not Santana.

Bapah

Very progressive reactionaries. Or is it the other way around?

Foothills Ryan

Not an accurate characterization on your part.

I’ve explained the tool box theory and I’ve explained the potential for service time considerations. Also work load management.

I am open to the possibility that he is not a lock. So if he’s not a lock, who gets in? Machi seems like a lock. Petit has his job mostly secure. One open spot. Why quash competition? It may still very well be Hembree’s job to lose.

I’ve also picked up some data points about Hembree’s velocity and dead arm early last year. Inconclusive, but I put these into consideration. Here’s hoping he’s as good as advertised.

DrLefty

We bemoan 9.00 ERAs in a 35-year-old guy who showed every indication of being toast last season and who had his option declined by the Giants after the season. I was hoping–and am still hoping–that Vogelsong was just fatigued from the long 2012 and the WBC and that he’d catch a second wind.

Now if 24-year-old stud MadBum had a bad spring training outing, or even a couple, I don’t think we’d overreact to that. But Vogey is fair game given his age and his struggles last season.

Also–this was my Zito reference last night–I remember far too many times over the years where Zito was getting knocked all over the place and had a terrible pitching line and would tell reporters “I felt good out there.” I don’t want anyone feeling “good” after giving up nine runs in under 3 innings, not even in spring training. I like Vogey better when he’s chainsaw angry.

Don’t get me wrong. I LOVE Vogey. His bobblehead is sitting on my piano right this minute. I will hope until the end that he’s still got a little bit left for us this year. But I’ll admit that I’m concerned, and I don’t think that’s an unreasonable position.

channelclemente

I think it defies description, beyond simply stating its point of origin.

Bapah

They were called the “Dirty Girls” on our Campus. Probably Delta Upsilon inspired.

Foothills Ryan

I know, I know. My data is good, but my algorithm is flawed.

Bapah

You’re having way too much fun. Who’s feeding the livestock?

DrLefty

I doubt service time is a huge issue. He’s a reliever, so hitting Super Two status isn’t going to break the bank (unless he’s Craig Kimbrel 2.0). Work load management and dead arm–maybe; I just don’t know enough about that.

I feel that the Giants desperately need new blood in the bullpen. I’m disappointed that they didn’t sign a really good free agent reliever, but since they didn’t, Hembree (who seems ready) and Law (who doesn’t quite) are the best options. Kontos and Runzler–yesterday’s news; they’ve had their chances, several of them each. Machi coughed up a big save opportunity the other day (walkoff homer) after the Giants had a dramatic two-out four-run rally in the ninth. I’m going to be really disappointed if we have the same below-average crew trotted out this year as last year.

channelclemente

Somewhere you’re going to have to deal with that Giants-Dodgers head to head record. Not to mention that end of year drubbing.

DrLefty

I have a feeling we’re going to see how “viable” Petit and maybe Escobar are this year. I hope they are–but I’m from Missouri on this one.

Foothills Ryan

Plenty of opportunity for Hembree if he happens to start in Fresno. He and Law will make their mark. A couple weeks in Fresno is nothing to fret over. Let Kontos & Machi, Runzler or Dunning getting their arms chewed on while the starters are still building their stamina.

DrLefty

Sounded like Hector was raking last night.

channelclemente

It’ll certainly temper a lot of giddy, preseason optimism with a dose of cold, hard reality.

There is too much in the minors to not have a short rope on the members of the pen. Again, I think it’ll be clear by end of May what kind of options are exercised in terms of team makeup.

DrLefty

See my other comment above.

DrLefty

I feel like we’re having the same conversation we had two years ago about Belt. Yeah, a bit of time in AAA won’t hurt him, but WHY? He’s got more upside than any of those other four names you mentioned. Why wouldn’t you put the best team on the field from Day 1? It’s exactly like saying Belt should go to AAA because they have Aubrey Huff and Brett Pill. Belt was clearly more promising than either of them, even in early 2012.

Like Belt, Hembree has nothing more to prove in AAA.

JD4SF

3 generations at the ranch. Feeding the critters, collecting eggs, etc., is the grandkids’ chore. (Horses, chickens, goats, meat rabbits, ranch dogs, barn cats.) The only change they have with me gone is also caring for my personal dog. My Border Collie cross is quite attached to me and tends to be a bit needy for attention when I’m gone.

channelclemente

…and you put innings on Hembree’s odometer he may (?) need.

Bapah

As I said, you’re having way too much fun. Keep it up.

Bapah

Damn!

channelclemente

Define ‘usually’.

Foothills Ryan

Sigh. Hembree = Belt. So it has been written.

Anti-Lasorda

I don’t see how Petit has his job secure with his performance this spring. As a matter of fact, with Vogey getting lit up like he’s Las Vegas, I might suggest that Yusmerio be sent too Fresno to build his arm strength up to cover 6 innings a game and give options more than rushing Escobar; especially considering his poor spring.

Runzler in the past has shwon to be a multiple inning guy, and has even started some. So far in camp he is light years ahead of Petit and he’s always had the stuff…..

It’s very easy to see why Hicks won’t win a spot: Arias has a new two-year contract, and Adrianza would be lost if he went through waivers, as he’s out of options.

And yeah, age is important, but there is a lot of difference between early 30′s and late 30′s. Scutaro is 38, but Pagan and Morse are 32. And there was no mention of Blanco (30) or Pence (31) or Romo (31) or another 30 year old, Lincecum. And Santiago is 33 (these are all for the 2014 season), but had a 2.16 ERA last season.

And really, this is just a strawman, show me how many teams are playoff competitive and DO NOT have anybody in their 30′s, then you can complain about the age.

Where I would note caution with age is the bullpen, Romo, Casilla, Lopez, Affedlt are all in their 30′s, and Machi if he makes it is 32, that’s where I would place some concern, if any, regarding age. But the flipside of that is we still got Kontos (29) and we have both Hembree and Law basically ready for the majors and their opportunity, and another, Osich, who looks close to knocking on the door, all 25 and under.

I can explain the NL West dichotomy easily as well: injuries. When the Giants were healthy in April, most of May, and September, they were 45-36, but when they were battling all those injuries the other three months, they were playing the NL Central and East and losing a lot of games.

I’m not scared of LA. People forget that they still had a losing record late in June, then had the most amazing stretch of winning in July and August when both their hitters and pitchers where playing out of their minds. You can’t tell me that they will repeat a sub 2 ERA from their starters and sub 1 ERA from their bullpen like they did in that stretch, again. And I don’t think Hanley can repeat another season like that, the last time he hit like that was in 2009. And Puig, after his hot start, hit something like .810 OPS in his last three months. And what does that leave for their offense then?

And Arizona is still scary after losing Corbin? They were a .500 team with him last year, he’s their Bumgarner, that smells like a losing combination. And the Padres and Rockies were legit losers last season, doing nothing much to improve themselves greatly (the need to add 15 wins to their team to get to 90 wins; not seeing that).

At home, the Giants were 30-15 in April, May, September. That’s pretty much what you want to see out of a playoff contender.

Cain is fine. He had a Perfect Game hangover, for a little more than a year afterward, he had problems stringing together dominant quality starts, but he was back to prior goodness in his last 10 years, with 7 of them quality starts.

And sure, Hudson had a serious ankle injury. Would a team spend $23M on a pitching if there was that big of a question mark on his health? Yes, any injury is a question mark, but I think his performance this spring shows that he’s healthy.

I think Lincecum could have a breakout year, but if not, a repeat of 2013 is actually OK, as long as Bumgarner, Cain and Hudson pitch as well as they have their whole career, in the low to mid 3′s ERA. Lincecum is our new Zito, who had average ERA seasons from 2009-2012, the seasons where our pitching rotation had us in the Top 3-5 in runs allowed.

And in those seasons, we had a poor 5th starter and still were among the top. So Vogelsong I see as a great gamble. If he returns to 2011-12 form, we have a devastating rotation. If he stinks, that’s an opportunity for Petit or Escobar to get MLB starts and show what they can do. It’s free money, playing with the house’s money here.

And yeah, the bullpen has more question marks. But we have Hembree coming up probably now. And how can any discussion of our bullpen’s fortunes not include a mention of Derek Freaking Law, without seeming incomplete? And Osich looks like he can be ready by mid-season. Plus, have to mention Affeldt’s healthy for the first time in ages. And need I remind anyone that we added Lopez and Ramirez in the middle of 2010, Mijares in the middle of 2012, so if we need bullpen arms, I think we are covered both internally and via trade if necessary.

And the lineup. People always seem to think you need a great hitter at every position or the team stinks. Look at the teams in the top 5, you don’t need great hitters everywhere except to be the top team. But with our pitching, we don’t need a top team, we just need better than average or good. Belt, Posey, Pence, Sandoval, if the four of them are hitting like they have shown that they can, that’s a strong offense right there, without mentioning Pagan, Scutaro, Morse (i.e. the old and injured guys mentioned in the article) or thinking about how good Crawford might also be.

Thus, I totally disagree, I like the 2014 Giants. The Giants are headed for a good season, up there with 2003 if every cylinder hits, but easily the division winner as long as we have reasonable health in 2014, as there is nobody in the division that looks as good as we do. The Dodgers played way above their heads last season and this season will prove that. I’m hoping for 3 parades in 5 years.

ClutchUp

LOL Maybe Lefty will post the “device” in existence for which LAD fans “watched” their last World Series on. HINT: it was not a DVD or CD

Bapah

Rather #FreeHeater

Anti-Lasorda

I agree, Machi, Kontos, Hembree, Dunning, Law will all see time with the big club this season. Machi, Kontos, Dunning I would expect to get frequent bus miles as their arms tire out.
Hembree needs to stay and be groomed to replace Romo. Sergio’s elbow may not last the season, so much so he’s making sure he’s working on a third pitch AND limiting his slider rate.
Getting old is a be-atch!

Also, I meant to add that at 45-36, that’s a 90-win rate for a season, usually good enough to get at least the wild card, so the team when healthy was a playoff caliber team last season, and it wasn’t like there weren’t guys scuffling during this winning, Pagan was actually pretty bad before his injury, Blanco actually hit better, Belt had his slow start, Lincecum had a poor start, as well as Vogelsong, and the Giants still won a lot of games, and Posey was really powerless in September, plus others, yet we won then too. Winning does not mean everyone is doing well, it means enough of them are.

channelclemente

The hills to cut down from last year are the bullpen, as you say, but i think the hidden variable we really had problems with last year was defense. No matter what, no pitching staff or bullpen can overcome some of the bonehead defensive miscues that happened last year. This year, the ball can be expected to be put in play even more. A close second are the equally boneheaded base running errors. We always assume that’s a given, but maybe we learned differently last year. If you are a defensive liability on the field, it’s going to really stick out this year.

ClutchUp

Free Doug Greenwald. Way too many hateful items written on other blogs. He and his dad share the same nasal delivery and the shtick Doug went with about his dad when a caller gave props to Hank – was entirely fodder. Ask Joe Ritzo if one doesn’t believe me but Greenwald, Doug is happy at Fresno and they him. Daddy got in doo-doo with his thoughts made public about Mr. McGowan and especially Baer, when Baer hired Miller away from Baltimore and thus Hank ‘retired’ even though he had almost broadcast 3000 consecutive games…. Father Hank was very critical of the FO – and thus if Doug did not have his own chops – he would not be employed by SF – in the FREZZ.

Anti-Lasorda

Perhaps, but Jiminez required a 4 year deal. Santana was signed on essentially a qualifying offer.

ClutchUp

Anti-Lasorda

Petit looks like AAA to me, Escobar has a bigger upside but needs more ‘seasoning’ before I decide to serve him up to MLB hitters.

channelclemente

They better come out of the gate tuned this year. That schedule through may is a killer…8 with the Dodgers.

ClutchUp

Thus winning can be the ultimate deodorant in some cases..

Foothills Ryan

The Good Doctor has some choice criticisms about Dougie Fresh.

Foothills Ryan

If I’m ditching the draft pick, I want to try to get my money’s worth stretched over 4 years of performance.

ClutchUp

I think the replay system is WAY flawed!?!?! Especially with runners on base and line drives down EACH line on the chalk/white lines. Players MUST keep running and leftfielders and rightfielders are going to HAVE TO play every close ball that maybe foul, as if it is FAIR. It is going to be a cluster and the game at the highest level is going to resemble some sophomoric game. Not happy.

Great article. Your straw man some flesh and bones. Hicks’ insane K rates may be the real reason he starts season in AAA. Could be the 4th best team in NL. The Dodgers also stand to upgrade where needed. They’ve got dough and some sought after prospects. Their pitching should carry them though.

Bapah

It shouldn’t be a challenge system. It should be an umpiring function with the purpose of getting the call right. Period.

Anti-Lasorda

I stand at them every night, the man has yet to select my guitar to tune……if he does, I would give it willingly.

Anti-Lasorda

I think we’re in for Zito 2011 results…..

Anti-Lasorda

No nooners from the Professor!

channelclemente

Must be your hat. I’m told that’s important. Pull out your old Fedora, and dump the porkpie.

What happened to Willis this spring? Is he hurt? Has he pitched and I missed it?

channelclemente

Given the circumstances, IMO, Adrianza is the most valuable rookie property not a pitcher owned by the Giants. I have never seen in Abreu what a lot of others have, go figure. That’s especially true with Crawford’s struggles.

channelclemente

When I was young, I found that straw fedora to be magic. Ladies loved to borrow it and get to know it’s owner for some reason. Jobu’s blessing upon you at the crossroads.

Vegas Giants Fan

Kinetoscope!

Michael Scott

Snippet on Posey from BP, if somebody already posted this, sorry, I haven’t read today’s comments:
“Posey is coming off a down year,the Giants are similarly coming off a down year as their offense went into the tank. Posey’s in a tough park and the lineup isn’t exactly young but he has the talent and track record to bounce back and if there’s a dead-cat bounce in San Francisco you can get an environment where Posey can lead the league in RBI”

paul in p.v.

Nice voice but talks WAY too much. Tells stories about stupid stuff just to fill the airspace. When he and Shawn Estes pair up it’s enough to make you “hitterish,” like you wanna smack them with a bat. ;o)

I think Dontrelle might be done (again) Shingles or he fainted or something…. With DePaula, maybe Willis broke out in the yips.

Surf Maui

Sanchez’s home run last night –he had three legs of the cycle and a sacrifice fly to the 410 sign– was absolutely crushed. had to be close to 500 feet

Michael Scott

Granted, it’s only 98 PA, but Hicks has a .133 MLB batting average, He has shown some pop in the minors, but I’d be beware of the Spring Training Sensation Oops!!! Factor. If it’s not going to be Abreu, stick with Ehire. If Scutaro opens on the DL, “The Coz” could be the third IF reserve and pinch hit and play in the infield in an emergency. It would make Foots soooooooooooooo happy .

channelclemente

I think ’538′ is on your wavelength, and mine. They evaluate WAR on Baseball America’s top 100, 7 years out. It’s a log fit, not linear.

Say Big Mike, you’re pretty smart when it comes to gaming the system and protecting players from GMs trying to game the system. How would you gauge the situation of Heath Hembree?

He came up after Sept. 1st last year. He’s got a fraction of service time. Can the Giants try to keep him under the projected cutoff for Super Two? Would they bother? Your thoughts? Thanks for straightening this out.

ClutchUp

538=another wanna-be site

Foothills Ryan

All the mamas and papas dreamin’ about the big boppers lineup (Bapah’s?):

Pagan-Belt-Sandoval-Posey-Pence-Morse-Hicks-Crawford-Bumgarner

Nice lineup for a bandbox. Play some HR derby. California Dreamin’.

Foothills Ryan

LOL. Leave sports to the jocks. No nerds allowed. Okay, nerds can watch.

channelclemente

Actually quite the opposite, IMO. But it’s your call.

ClutchUp

ALL stats are worthy but without the first pitch of the game there is no saber world. Without the very first pitch in the 1800′s there are no talking heads. The game could survive ONLY an eye test viewpoint. Saber could not exist without the game. The pen and pencil crowd could still “do baseball” but without games there is no Saber world…. Chicken or the Egg.

That’s not so bad. Belt stayed in the majors and the Giants won the World Series in 2012!

Foothills Ryan

Revenge of the nerds, or fan-graphers. The computer is mightier than the bat they sayeth.

Foothills Ryan

Actually the game is a cooperative effort. Strong men alone cannot build the bridge. There’s got to be some brains behind it. Baseball has survived and flourished on more than the backs of its players. Marketers, writers, and financiers have all played a major role in shaping the game we know today.

I just don’t see the front office losing Abreu for nothing (i.e., him not making the team). Ditto on Adrianza.

All stats/baseball relevant data aside, seems to me this will be a biz decision that we start the season w/ Scoots on DL, the Arias-Adrianza-Abreu trio at 2B.

E-B

cc, i do like pretty pix, esp. charts/graphs, but gotta say, they sure missed on this pair of charts.

the 7-years AFTER should be shown as an error bar up/down, from the original ranking.

At least it would show whether the WAR had stayed the same, increased, or decreased.

E-B

If stats could accurately predict the best athletes in each sport, someone/some group/company would be making a ton of money.

Stats are useful as a diagnostic tool, because they document the past, but the models are not sophisticated enough to predict the future.

That’s why sports still relies upon the eye of the scout.

E-B

good for young Hector!

The Oracle

I’m sure Jackson is a good coach, but the NBA is a players’ league more than any other. Jackson won all of those titles because he was in the right places at the right times. Many coaches could’ve won titles with Jordan/Pippen/Shaq/Kobe. He was just a good coach, not a genius, when Jordan was playing baseball.

channelclemente

It’s the accrued WAR over 7 years, and for whatever reason, one rarely sees error bars in baseball stats. There is no R, because in a nonlinear fit, R isn’t appropriate.

what that graph SHOULD show is the change from intial, to 7yr (cumulative) WAR, whether the (smoothed over) change is higher/lower than initial.

btw, what org. did these charts?

(and CC, there are many other ‘flavors’ of what we might call ‘error bars’, that are not necessarily generated from a least squares, which you are referring to. Very very little phenomena in the natural world ever follow a linear path.)

E-B

yup. it will be a biz decision, i believe.

E-B

hey Footy…

uh…dunno, but I don’t see the Runzaltor making the team, as much as I root for the guy, he just does not seem to have the mental toughness needed for that job.

Foothills Ryan

Neither do I, but the competition should still be open and if he does well enough maybe the org has a soft spot for him. I think it is advisable to have a second “long man” early in the season. Who fits the bill? I don’t think that’s a particularly good job for Hembree. His role will surface maybe sooner than later.

E-B

I’m concerned too, bcuz opening day is right around the corner, and Vogey’s struggling still.

It does however, remind me a little of another Zito moment, in 2012, when he really, by all eyewitnesses, looked toast, done, gone w/ his crouching tiger whacky delivery.

At that time, Zee said something like, he just has to fix a few things and he’ll be OK. Well, I didn’t buy it at the time, but whoa, what did Zee do? He won the 1st game of the season, at Rox mile high city, 9-0 shutout w/ a full Rox l/u…on their opening day.

Who’d a thought?

Now, if Vogey can pull off that kinda trick, I would be impressed. But, he’d not Zee. What worries me is that I don’t think Vogey’s got that ‘killer shot’ to work his game around, meaning, a putaway weapon to build his repertoire around. As much grief as Zee gave us, he always had that killer big curveball that was unhittable when on.

If Vogey’s got something left, it better show up sooner rather than later.

E-B

OK Footy, I see your point–it’s not set in stone yet, and I totally agree.

But, what bothers me is that you agree about Runzalator’s not yet having developed the nerves of steel mentality, which I believe is so central to a bullpen role.

My hope is that the SFG can help him develop this away from the big stage (majors), cuz he’s still got a live arm.

As for Hembree, just based on what I’ve seen of him, I think he’s got the mentality of a closer/bullpen dude. Pressure doesn’t seem to rattle him too much (except for his 1st or 2nd appearance in ST, which was a dud.)

thx for the report from the stadium.
maybe Tempe’s weather is a bit drier and warmer than Phoenix/Scottsdale, dunno if that’s ever a factor in a game like last night’s, but there were a ton of HR’s and lots of bad pitching.

glad you had a chance to watch all the flying baesballs.

also, thx for the pix of the Panda.

Foothills Ryan

Hembree is the all time saves leader for the Grizzlies. Lefty doesn’t want any more saves added to that total and I can sympathize.

You are bothered by my agreement about Runzler?

He’s made some mechanical adjustments, maybe these help him with consistency. Bochy seems to like having 3 lefties to toy with. Don’t count him out. He could be very effective getting out of jams in the 5th/6th. When just about every other pitcher was getting shelled last night, seems Runzler did okay.

E-B

hey Baldy, good to see you back here…

oh uh um…my fear is that you are correct…my hope is that it will not materialize in real life.

E-B

dunno what K.Towers is thinking, but when he shopped Justin Upton, jerked him around for 2-3 years w/ the threats and all, I lost all respect for him/the organization.

No matter what Upton did to PO Kirky Gib or anyone else, no human being deserves to be treated so callously.

I was rootin’ for Justin w/ every HR he hit for ATL. And ya know what, Justin’s the big winner, bcuz he’s now w/ an organization that’s professional and they run it with class.

Actually, I’m glad KT got rid of that gold glove outfield of Upton Young. I was tired of them catching every dang ball. Also, glad KT got Bauer outta our division, bcuz he could develop into some kinda weapon. KT chose Corbin. Now he wan’t to shop Didi G. OK, so maybe when we play them, more shots will get through to the OF. I like it.

well Footy, yah, I am, bcuz that mental toughness is more than 1/2 of the job of a BP guy.

if we both think Runzalator’s not yet developed that toughness, well, not promising, if you also believe that BP mentality is more than half the battle.

ANd yah, your point, well taken–Runzalator was OK last night, on a night of very bad pitching on all sides.

well, perhaps we can agree just on that one point, and put me down as a big question mark on Runzalator. I hope he’s gotten tougher (mentally), but I’m afraid he’s not.

Foothills Ryan

Hard to quantify mental toughness. Runzler is still around when he could have folded. I’ve seen Lincecum not look so mentally tough on the mound- you mean i have to pay attention to the runners? and cover bases? oh no, I’m getting roped …

E-B

“Wind or no wind, they have to hit it before the wind can take it anywhere. And there were a lot of singles and doubles (11 hits in 2.2 innings) to go with any “wind-aided” homers.”

totally agree (above).

re: Cainers and Carl’s comment.
I hope the ‘loose bodies’ (bone chips?) in his elbow don’t get cranky. Since he was shut down for ~3 wks in ~ 2011 (?) ST, it’s always been in the back of my mind as a concern.
That is the only little splinter on the smooth 2×4 of Cainers. Otherwise, he’s a rock.

E-B

hey h’all, thx–been fun hangin here.

(and Footy, if Hank S. chose Runzalator, I’m gonna bet he does make the team, and I hope all my fears about him will be proven totally wrong.)

Runzler has a wife and young child to support, so I”m not sure “folding” is a realistic option for him.

Nothing to do with my preference for Hembree, but I’m done thinking Runzler’s “finally figured it out.” They were saying that about him this exact time LAST year and then he melted down the last few days of spring training and got cut. Finally DFA’d in September. He’s been around since 2009, and other than that stellar rookie debut, he’s never done anything. Time to stick a fork in that one.

Who remembers Trevor Wilson back in the day? He was a starter but another one of those maddening flaky lefties like Runzler. Every year we’d think this was the year he’d win 20. Decent overall stats, but walked too many people, always. Couldn’t stay healthy, either.

DrLefty

It’s a good comparison. You’re right–I was one of many who thought Zito would be out of the rotation by June in 2012. I saw him pitch in spring training, and he was sooooo bad. He fooled us all, starting with the stunning shutout at Coors Field for the Giants’ first win of the year. I hope Vogey will, too.

Here’s the difference, though–the Giants had about $47 million reasons in 2012 to see things through with Zito. The stakes aren’t as high if they want to demote Vogey to long relief.

DrLefty

Yep. They didn’t do Kickham any favors by rushing him to the majors last year. I don’t think Escobar’s quite ready, either.

DrLefty

LOL. My dog acts out when we’re gone. She ate five pieces of carrot cake when we were in AZ for spring training!

channelclemente

Most baseball regression follow the linear path, right or wrong. These were done in Nate Silver’s shop. Apparently the baseball convention, right or wrong, is to let the correlation sub for error. When’s the last time you saw a cumulative stat anywhere in baseball and a std.

DrLefty

Well. Almost never. But let’s say it’s a night class and let’s say that HOURS earlier I happen to go out for chicken enchiladas because Vogey’s pitching the next day. Now, how am I not going to have a margarita, I ask you?

channelclemente

Why of course, it’s only humane.

DrLefty

Early afternoon. It will be a freshman seminar, and it’s no good trying to get those kids into a class like that before noon. Say 1 or 2 p.m. The freshmen won’t be old enough to drink legally, but there could be a pre-class lunch meeting, say at DeVere’s Irish Pub.

DrLefty

A Dodgers-Giants NLCS won by the Dodgers might actually kill me. I’d better have my affairs in order.

ClutchUp

I have some experience with Advance Directives, Guardian or Conservatorship. Let me know …

channelclemente

Well, then maybe your affairs should be in order. Heck, if the Giants get that far in October baseball, I take my turn at the dice. F**k the GD Dodgers. All I ask is the chance, I’ll put my money on these guys and Bochy were they to get that far anytime.

BALDHEADSLIK1

Not feeling good about Morse he reminds me of Bogut always injured in some type of way. Morse will be a decent hitter IF healthy but im not counting on it ya know.

PerSpeier35

Clutch I wonder what was past the RF fence when Willie Stargell played there. It’s a short porch with a high fence (net), 150 lb kids can hit it off the current apartment building there. I guess Willie would have hit them over toward Southshore.

ClutchUp

That’s right. If my aunt Helen had a pair she’d be my uncle Harry. Injuries are part of the game and EVERY team has their share. King James is hurt for the Heat, Iggy is out for a week or more, the A’s lost a starter as did the Snakes and Braves. What can Brown Do For You.

DrLefty

That Sporting News piece CC linked had the Snakes in the cellar of the NL West. The loss of Corbin is going to hurt them badly, just like Parker for the A’s and Medlen for the Braves. It’s amazing how one little ligament in an elbow can shake up a whole league’s landscape.

The Dbacks are left with Miley, Cahill, McCarthy, Arroyo, and one of Delgado, Bradley, or Collmenter. Miley’s solid, but he’s not an ace like Corbin (and Corbin, for that matter, was no Kershaw or MadBum–second-tier ace, at least so far–ran out of gas last season). Cahill is also a solid starter but has never really put a wire-to-wire good season together. Miley and Cahill are really both #3 type pitchers. McCarthy–when was the last time he pitched a full season? Has he ever? Arroyo is usually a durable #4, but he’s behind schedule due to back problems. If Bradley is (a) ready sooner rather than later and (b) the stud he’s projected to be, that could change everything. But it’s a lot of “ifs.” Keep an eye on Skaggs, Bauer, and Kennedy this year to see how much of a genius KT is…

DrLefty

Bogut has a lot more of a resume than Morse does.

ClutchUp

Baer and Jim Morehead must be drooling over the outside chance of having three Brandons on the team. BB, BC and BH. Hicks does look good in #14 kind of fits him ala Franky Pegs. BBB’s. Hicks and his fellow Licks will make the melk man and maids disappear. Amy G will have the exclusive interview with the three swarthy complected beards sitting with her in the dugout on SF G_Productions.

They might think Abreu would not picked up if they cut him loose. I ‘m not so sure. He’s not a good second baseman but he’s a lot better than he’s shown in ST, At the plate some want to dismiss his MLB numbers last year but he’d outhit Hicks and Ehire if he’s kept. So we’ll see what they do with or without Marco. I agree with you, I guess

IMO Bochy and Sabean love the fact that Abreu has hit off of 99% of the starters and bullpen in the NL. That guarantees nothing of certain but they both love that aspect.

JD4SF

Mine is a stock dog type – they tend to bond with one person then accept the family, too. But my current dog is also a rescue (abused, abandoned) so when she latched on to me it is a particularly strong bond. This is a dog who needs a lot of stability, patience and reassurance. Where I go, she wants to be. She’ll be restless while I’m gone, going from person to person in the household looking for reassurance.

channelclemente

Don’t you cringe a little bit every time you see Abreu field a ball? I know I do. He’s positively Tejada’esque down to the stone hands and deft throwing arm.

SurfCity

I would like your handy little list of good taverns and restaurants strategically located near ballparks, please!

JD4SF

The Tuesday night game was at Goodyear, which is in the southwest of the greater Phoenix area. A bit cooler there than further east, and a bit of a breeze during the game.

Carl called it the boondocks. Dunno why, it is just off the south end of a commercial area, with some ag land being farmed in the vicinity. If I lived there, I’d think I was too close to civilization. LOL

Affeldt had good and not so good moments, but I grinned at Romo. Took him a couple of pitches to settle in, then he just took the batters to school.

Bochy and Flannery looked pretty relaxed during BP.

Michael Scott

The relief spots are getting very tough to predict, Runzler in particular has mucked it up
And Vogelsong- he’s happy??? I guess he likes train wrecks. My guesses for relief.
Petit, Runzler,Affeldt, Hembree, Casilla, Lopez, Romo-Those are very shaky picks, I can see 4 or 5 more who could make it.
Petit and Vogie have short leashes. If Vogelsong crashes, I think they eat his contract and DFA him. Next up is Petit. He’s gone if he goes feet up.
Ready are Kontos or Dunning for relief, Escobar or Huff (if he clears waivers) for The 5th starter spot. And I still think they might try to move Affeldt.

2holehitting

Runzler was in the rotation a few years back before his knee was blown out of all things batting. The Giants need a hard throwing pitcher and not the junk ballers they have.

Foothills Ryan

Some of your best comedic work to date. My ribs are tickled. Hugs around the house.

2holehitting

inspite of his performance not because of his performance

Michael Scott

His defensive fielding numbers at 2nd base rate him as about average. He’s has a terrible time this spring but I don’t rule him out. If he stinks it up in April they could DFA him and go to Hicks or even Panik depending on Marco’s status,

Michael Scott

I don’t know Hicks’ status as to options.

SurfCity

Yep, and some people still insist that it just as easily could have been Pill.
Those who say that, just can’t recognize talent!

Michael Scott

I can’t help it, those charts all look like earthlings fleeing the alien invasion.

2holehitting

Reading through this the crowd sounds to have thrown Vogey under the bus. Written him off. 1/5th the rotation shot before the season starts. Another pitcher lit up the other day and he had crappy years for the past several. Starting pitching is their week link it has been for several years with JS and TL and BZ being not good, then throw in Vogelsong Progressively worse since arrival, and a patchwork of fill in starters. They have a bunch of 80 somethings, that will all look the same to batters. If Hudson does not pan out to his card, this may be a very looooonnnngggg season for the die harders.

Vegas Giants Fan

And the performance of the athlete.

channelclemente

Makes one wonder if the stress of competition has gotten in his head. I wondered, if he was Venezuelan, if that was on his mind, but I see he’s from the DR.

DrLefty

Right. Belt’s .967 OPS in June didn’t help the team come from 7.5 behind the Dodgers in late May to tied by the end of June.

His OPS over .880 in August and September didn’t help the team go from tied for first in mid-August to running away with the NLCS. And his .304 batting average in the NLCS didn’t help the Giants, either.

Don’t bother telling me about bad hitting in the NLDS and the World Series. I looked it up. He also got the first RBI in Game 4–a game won by ONE run. For that matter, Posey hit .154 in the NLCS that year. Would you also say the 2012 Giants won “in spite of” him?

Michael Scott

He’s also had injury problems recently. It’s pretty common for guys to try to hide it. Especially a player on the bubble.

channelclemente

Good point.

DrLefty

He was in the bullpen in 2010 when he blew out his knee batting. They tried him in the rotation the next year (2011) and even had him make one start. Didn’t go well.

Foothills Ryan

This doesn’t seem like one of the better sentences you’ve written. Who are you and what have you done with Doc Lefty?

DrLefty

Oh, pfft. It’s finals week and I’m off duty and out of uniform.

Matthew

I doubt it

Michael Scott

To steal from Jenkins- those were my “Dead Wrong in Public” picks.

Michael Scott

ST or not, that last was one plug ugly start. I’m not throwing him under the bus but after last year I can’t see them going very long with him if he has a bad start to the season.

Michael Scott

Dan Hicks is 72? I’m not sure why but that makes me feel about 90.

channelclemente

You should see some of those mutes the Cubs have.

Bapah

The folks here on AP’s blog have to go through the the same bumpy process as the players. Re-developing “baseball eyes” again, limber up the brains so stats roll off the finger tips effortlessly. Re-acquaint ourselves with critical witticisms, or is that wittical criticisms. We need that anger, we need the joy of being wrong. A couple more weeks to go, but so far, I see some old faces (figuratively) And some (OCG) are channeling Carmot and getting us away from the SAS (Short attention span) Blog we”re used to and into some lengthier dissertations. Get loose, get ready, we’re getting close.

BALDHEADSLIK1

Clutch you are a funny man btw how are the delinquents treating you over there?

Foothills Ryan

I liked it. The kind of sentence I might write.

South City Jim

Aroldis Chapman damn near got killed tonight. Praying he’s okay.

Vegas Giants Fan

Minor League Notes:

I just finished listening to Pod Cast #30 by Joe Rizzo, Radio Announcer of the San Jose Giants. The subject was Joe and Pod Cast partner Ben Taylor’s projection of the position players (for San Jose) for the upcoming season. Here are a few highlights from that Pod Cast.

They like three players making the jump from Salem/Kaizer to the San Jose starting lineup this season. Brian Ragira at first base, Jeremy Sy at shortstop and Tyler Horan in left field. Here are the rest of their projected starters. Ben Turner at catcher, Trevor Brown at second base, Mitchel Delfino at third base, Jesus Galindo in center field and Charles Jones in right field.

Some comments on a few of these players.

Ben Turner – Catcher: Strong defensive catcher. No errors in 45 games behind the plate. Threw out 38% of would be base stealers. Split time between catcher and first base. (.994%) Not strong offensively. However, was toughest player to strikeout in the Sally League last season. (24 K’s in 408 PA – 5.9%) Had 90 consecutive PA without striking out.

Mitchell Delfino – Third Base: Similar to Adam Duvall in build. .270/13/76 at Augusta. Could see his power number increase at San Jose. Better fielder than Duvall and K’s at a much lower percentage. (14.7%)

Jesus Galindo – Center Fielder: Lead off hitter. .273/1/25 at Augusta. Slap hitter type. 48 SB. 40+ SB in each of his 4 years in pro ball. Very strong arm. Needs work on route running.

Lots of question marks for the Giants. If The Stache and Hudson do well. We make the playoffs. Volgie is garbage and is going to get rocked. Love him but fairy tale is over. Should have signed Johnson.

Posey – I expect another MVP year. Anything else will be a let down.
Belt – Time to put the big boy pants on and be the stud I’ve been saying for years.
Scoots – can you say ghost of Freddie Sanchez. I hope Hicks keeps hitting the crap out of the ball. Look for Susac mid season.
Crawford – Garbage hitter will dazzle us with his glove. Not enough.
Fat Boy – contract year and will hit well. But will be hurt way too much.
Pence – Solid
Pagan – Breaking down and will continue to do so.
Morse – He can’t stay healthy. Not a good sign.

Bum – If he stays healthy. May win Cy Young.
Cain – Nice bounce back year.
The Stache – I have no idea
Hudson – If ankle holds he will win 10.
Volgie – Done … should have signed Johnson. Might be good for long relief.

dgg

That was a blog by OCG, not a post. Voluminous.

Foothills Ryan

Thanks Vegas. You’ve highlighted 3 pretty interesting players. Considering how Augusta is such a difficult place to put up numbers, that’s a good line for Delfino.

Bapah

I wonder if there are face mask add-ons to the new pitcher’s hat. Scary.

I was wondering how my guy Trevor Bauer is doing in Indians camp. By the numbers: 8 ER in 7 IP, 5 BB, and 8 K, 2 HRs.

Plains Dealer says:

GOODYEAR, Ariz. – Manager Terry Francona says Trevor Bauer
is still in the race for the open spot in the rotation although he
hasn’t pitched in a Cactus League game since getting knocked around by
the Angels on March 10.

“He’s still in camp,” said Francona. “As
long as guys are still in camp (they’re in competition). We told guys
we’d talk to them when we thought it was appropriate.

“I do think
with Trevor looking at the big picture is important. We really value
this kid. We think at some point whether it’s next week or two weeks
from now, he’s going to help us win games.”

Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco and Aaron Harang are pitching for the job as well. All three have been pitching well.

The Indians have stressed to Bauer that they want him to improve his fastball command.

“Trevor
will pitch against Oakland in a Triple-A game on Thursday,” said
Francona. “His last couple of bullpen sessions have been better. He’s
really trying hard.”

Bauer has one option left.

—-

This one requires patience. Something the DBacks do not have a lot of.

2holehitting

I have but they are not $22M per season nor being hailed as Cy Young winners, perfect game pitchers, no hit wonders or $100M dollar boyz.All adding up to a 4+ starting pitching of recent

DrLefty

Like I said, keep an eye on Bauer, Skaggs, and Kennedy over this next year. All three of those pitchers were in the Dbacks organization at the end of the 2012 season. The Snakes were rich in starting pitching depth, considering also they were expecting the return of Daniel Hudson, who sadly went down for a second TJ surgery before making a comeback. Kennedy, a 21-game winner in their 97-win season in 2011, was dumped mid-2013 for a middle reliever. Bauer was traded for Didi Gregorius, who appears to be their version of Adrianza (and whom they are now shopping). And Skaggs was traded for Mark Trumbo, the bat they needed to protect Goldschmidt after they traded the bat they had (J. Upton).

It’s partly about whether the players received back for those pitchers pay off. But it’s more about what the Dbacks have done to their own pitching depth. If the Dbacks’ rotation struggles this year (definitely possible) and one or all of those pitchers thrive elsewhere–well, it’s a cautionary tale. IMO, the rotation was their biggest strength (way more than their lineup and bullpen)–and, at least for the moment, it’s gutted.

Bapah

Or maybe they’re inept and couldn’t find their own a$$ with both hands.

DrLefty

We got to see Turner, Sy, Galindo, Jones, and Duffy in the Future Stars game two weekends ago.

Of those we especially noticed Turner, who looks like a nice strong kid with a great arm, and Duffy, who hit a booming double to dead CF off Kickham and looked sharp at SS, too.

My husband started watching Galindo a couple years back. That young man can fly. He was promoted from Augusta to SJ for the playoffs last year and was in SJ’s starting lineup before the playoffs were over. With Gary Brown being possibly/probably a bust, Galindo is one to keep an eye on.

DrLefty

Wait, are you saying Susac’s going to be playing 2B by midseason? That IS a scoop!

Foothills Ryan

You two are silly. I’m going to book you guys for some desensitization training. A phone booth suspended by a crane with some harmless snakes.

Foothills Ryan

Keep an eye on Zach Wheeler for fun also.

DrLefty

A 97-win team in 2011 dismantled by mid-2013 (Upton, Young, Drew, Kennedy all gone), followed by two .500 seasons–and most are picking them to do even worse in 2014. Sounds inept, yes.

DrLefty

DrLefty

He’s on a minor league deal. He can be optioned. That may seal his fate.

DrLefty

You have a point. I can’t even look at a photograph of a snake. Definitely phobic. Bees, too. Not spiders, interestingly–I wouldn’t say I’m HAPPY to see a spider, but I just deal with it. My sister and my older daughter get hysterical at the sight of a spider.

Michael Scott

Most stats reflect what has already happened as you acknowledge. The box score is a collection of stats. Even the densest anti-stat dunderhead relies on “the numbers”- baseball is a game of numbers. The batting champ is not determined by the “sniff test”. It’s not the numbers that those anti-stat puddingheads have a problem with, it’s the ones they don’t understand.

DrLefty

Here’s an update on Skaggs. Sounds like he’s made a mechanical adjustment this spring and is looking good–will likely make the Angels’ rotation. I knew the Angels originally drafted him, but I didn’t realize he’s also a hometown boy (grew up an Angels fan and attended a game in the 2002 World Series).

Ophidiophobia, claustrophobia, and acrophobia gone in one fell swoop all for $199.95.

One time, a tarantula was crawling on our ceiling. Yes, upside down like Lionel Richie. My dog, Mingus, survived a rattlesnake bite several years ago. Haven’t seen or heard from one of them in a long time, but they would get decapitated if found.

Foothills Ryan

Thanks. Good article. Except for the part where Skaggs was at Game 6 of the 2002 WS.

Bapah

When I was 12 or 13, I had a dream that a spider lowered itself into my mouth from the ceiling. I woke up and had a spider in my mouth. Needless to say, I hate spideys.

Snakes, on the other hand, no prob. I caught and cooked a rattlesnake while camping with the Boy Scouts. Cut the heads off several as a 8-10 year old with a shovel. Not Spiders, though, definitely arachnophobic.

Michael Scott

Maybe they can convince Rob Neyer to take over their terrible front office.

channelclemente

And they are noticeably not WS winners.

Ken E

I hope Escobar is as mature and ready as the organization thinks he is because as much as I love Vogelsong and will never ever forget his greatness in 2012 (and 2011) he is going to be a train wreck as the #5 starter this year. I have a feeling his starts will be like Zito starts, and if so don’t leave him out there as a punching bag for the half the season, give Escobar the chance sooner than later.

Bapah

What saved Zito was his hitting. Don’t see Vogey as the tremendous bat Zito was.

stickman

Another good assessment. Not unexpected, considering the source. Seems it even predates the regime of Kevin Towers, this inclination on the part of the Snakes upper management. They make some stoopid trades, particularly of starting pitchers. Al’s Hammer must be setting in cause i cannot right now recall the name of the starter they shipped to the Tigers a bit of a while back. He was a big part of the reason why Detroit made the W.S. appearance and Arizona did not.

So for all those knocking on Sabean and his trades or failures to do so, there’s always the sorry record of the Diamondbacks and the mystery of why their G.M.’s overlook the simple mantra of “Rotation, rotation, rotation.”

Michael Scott

I think that the progression would be Petit or Huff ( both out of options) and then Escobar. But I still have some hope that Vogelsong will right the ship.

Michael Scott

Could be. Do you have anything that might shed light on his performance this spring? A new grip alla Belt? I’d love to have reason to believe that he is for real.

channelclemente

Decisions, decisions. I explain my somewhat similar feeling by recognizing that an ex-Dodger manages the snakes.

channelclemente

Well, Fangraphs has Sandoval and the Giants 5th in 3B positional power rankings.

On the road a lot so I don`t get to follow the position developments as much as I would like. My sense is that the second base/utility race is shaping up as; Hicks, Adrianza, and then Abreu. If Scoots does end up on the DL to start the year, do they keep all three? Or can they?

When Bauer was at UCLA his mechanics were of emulation to 55. There was something in Bauer’s mechanics after he broke his hands called ‘plunging’ (not what you think Anti) 55 did it naturally and Bauer forced it. When he got to ARZ minor leagues his pregame show off throwing routine turned off teammates, coaches and opponents….Just saying…

ClutchUp

…good afternoon and good night …

ClutchUp

Sidney and Budapest are clear winners over Paris, but there is a Paris star born @ 3:24

What, no appreciation of Gulf Coast ‘high’ culture. It always puzzled me that Lynchburg, TN, where JD is made, is dry. I’m still reeling from True Detective withdrawal.

DrLefty

Also keep an eye on the other youngsters in Richmond–Crick, Blackburn, Blach. If one of those guys excels, he could get fast-tracked–Blach, in particular, because he was a college pitcher and is a little older. Escobar is a little further along, having pitched part of last season in AA, but he doesn’t have to be the only 2014 option.

Bapah

You like Gibby?

DrLefty

Max Scherzer, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is the name you’re looking for. The Dbacks drafted him in the first round in 2006 (in fact, he was the next pick after Lincecum). He was traded several years later in a three-team deal that sent Scherzer to the Tigers and netted the Dbacks pitchers Edwin Jackson (now with the Cubs) and Ian Kennedy (now with the Padres).

As an aside, the 2006 draft was quite something for starting pitchers. Out of the first 11 picks have come 5 Cy Young Awards: 2 for Kershaw (#7), two for Lincecum (#10), and one for Scherzer (#11). The #1 pick was also a pitcher, Luke Hochevar of the Royals, who sadly just had Tommy John surgery.

Also in that first round was Tyler Colvin (#13), now trying to make the team for the Giants!

Funny you should say that. What with Apple TV and various Blue Ray options, nearly all of the Netflix, HBO, MLB, Hulu, and the like, other than Internet access, I don’t think I need cable. If it wasn’t for DirectTV’s slimy shell game with their packages, I’d dump cable in an instant.

channelclemente

I did dump Direct TV, slow DSL and constant rain outages. Comcast does have dramatically better data rates. The only thing I watch is news, and HBO from time to time. I had this well advertised True Detective addiction, I’m on step 3 or 4 in the 12 step program.

Michael Scott

Old is overrated. Do the markets advertise week old fish? Does Bochy like old guys? Uh, strike that…

Obviously literacy wasn’t a prerequisite for this little video, but the production values were off the charts.

DrLefty

Assuming Arias is the #1 backup infielder, they would have one other spot if Scutaro is NOT on the DL. If he is, they’d have two (at least temporarily). The only way all three make the team is if (a) Scutaro’s DL’ed and (b) they decide to go with four outfielders and not five. Given that Morse and Pagan have been ailing, I doubt they’d short-staff themselves in the OF.

If I were handicapping this, I’d say it goes one of two ways:

(1) Scutaro NOT on DL: Arias and Adrianza make the team; Abreu DFA; Hicks to AAA.

(2) Scutaro ON DL: Arias, Adrianza, and Abreu make the team; Hicks to AAA. Once Scutaro is activated and/or Adriana or Abreu crash and burn, they could try to sneak one of them through waivers (easier once other teams’ rosters are set) and/or bring Hicks up from AAA if he’s doing well there.

At least we’re in better shape than this time last year. They had Kensuke Tanaka (8 throwing errors in ST from 2B), Wilson Valdez, and Abreu, who was injured “competing” for the backup spot. The decision ended up being “none of the above,” and Noonan got a shot instead. Now we have the four guys we’ve been discussing and Noonan for depth. Could be worse. Has been worse (Freddy not ready, Manny Burriss opening day 2B).

Bapah

Just FYI, the supra-orbital ridge is a stronger than usual part of the skull. It’s there to protect the eye socket. So, if that is fractured it means that he took a tremendous hit. It could be even scarier than it appeared and that was pretty scary. Let’s hope this isn’t a career ending injury, because it certainly could be.

DrLefty

Blach is also a lefty.

channelclemente

It was driven by the need for linear consistency with the subject matter, Georgia Cracker Hooch.

ClutchUp

Thus the notation…

ClutchUp

When Wotus becomes skipper, he’ll bat Bum 8th.

ClutchUp

The EX-Mrs_TO could probably afford to purchase …

ClutchUp

I’m meeting my Nigerian connection tomorrow at my ATM, I emailed him my password to show him good faith.

Anti…(sorry, no time now to scroll back in this thread to your comment now, so posting here)

I went back to read Schulman’s reports, and I could not find where he said that Runzalator would make the team…

but, his twitter feed, which is one of the most hilarious, did make a tongue-in-cheek comment when Runzalator threw one of the few 1-2-3 innings of the entire game…I believe it was meant as a sarcastic remark/commentary/warning of not taking 1 event from ST too too too seriouwswy.

Now, if Schulman did indeed state that he thought Runzalator would make the team, I would believe it, bcuz Schulman works assiduously to check, double-, triple-check his info and accuracy.

Foothills Ryan

Much ado about nothing.

Foothills Ryan

I was wondering about your Hank S. comment, E-B. Whatever kind of marbles are in his head, he’s still a long shot. But place your bet, the pay out could be significant.

Foothills Ryan

It’s a$$ ain’t pretty either.

Foothills Ryan

And Belt 2nd? Which seems to be coming to theater real soon.

standardstarboard

Adrianza seems like a better bet because of his defense, and now his bat looks better. Last year Abreu intrigued me because of his size…but doesn`t have the glove of Adrianza. Hicks just came out of nowhere…but I like what I see. He has some pop. My guess is that Abreu is the only one out of the three that would go thru waivers unclaimed. Does HIcks have an option?…or does he need one to get to Fresno? It certainly solidifies the position from last year. BTW, what…do read all baseball stuff all day every day to keep up with these players and trades. You got it goin` on Doc. Thanks for the chat.

Bapah

Scioscia trades his son to Cubs for Gretzky’s son.

Foothills Ryan

Nevermind his son, what about Gretzky’s daughter?

Bapah

Is her tat a UBC or a jersey number?

ClutchUp

Saw the Great Ones kid at a Showcase 1-3 yrs ago….over-rated ;~)
Neither kid is any good. Both Pops were ginormously better, esp 99

ClutchUp

Popcorn bet OR overnight White Castle burgers …

ClutchUp

Schulman quote: “Hembree and Runzler might have an edge based on their springs, but others have thrown well, too. Cordier has allowed one hit in five innings. Kontos followed a bad initial game with four shutout appearances.”

speaking of which…I finally gotta a suggestion for a book request post that you made way way back during holidays….

(not being much of a reader/intellectual is my problem, but on few occasions, I actually do read sometimes). This is not actually a novel or such; it’s a collection of short stories (sorta like mini monographs) for each element on the periodic table. Just a little warning though…this man survived the horrors of the holocaust, so he gives the reader a few glimpses of that ordeal.

Hicks is on a minor league deal, so he can be optioned. He’s the only one of the three (Abreu & Adrianza) who wouldn’t have to go through waivers.

Latest news is that Scoots had an epidural injection in his back and is 50-50 for Opening Day.

And I mostly read Twitter (and articles linked on Twitter) and this blog to keep up to speed.

Foothills Ryan

One more time: Give it up for Gretzky’s daughter (and his wife). Isn’t the conservation of genetics amazing !!

E-B

thx Clutch; that’s why I posted a reply to Anti, regarding the BP.
Schulman did not actually say he thought Ruz would make the team; he just commented that Ruz/Hemb were in the mix.

His twitter feed was meant as a tongue in cheek commentary on ST, I believe.

ClutchUp

Sorry, this is your number two hitter w/out Scoots

ClutchUp

Mom is much prettier. Daughter is a tad…errr….over the top.

Foothills Ryan

Well thanks. Better late than never

Foothills Ryan

Kontos may have the edge. You’d have to get inside Bochy’s head to find out.

Foothills Ryan

who? an internet hug?

Anti-Lasorda

I could see where the comment could have been taken as sarcastic, but it made a good talking point. Mine was that Petit shouldn’t be a lock and should be doen in Fresno. This is only compounded by Vogie’s struggles. I would think Runz, Dunning, Huff are competing for the long man role.

E-B

well, and Sabes. I thought I heard Sabes say some sort of glowing remarks about Kontos a month ago, blah blah blah…

I don’t understand why a 1.5 pitch guy gets such high marks, esp when he’s a known gas-can w/ inherited runners on base.

Boch seemed to ‘save’ Kontos for Timmy and Zito last year. We’ll see who gets Kontozed this year, if he makes the team…and I think you’re correct about that, unfortunately.

E-B

yup, Machi’s not even a lock either (per Hank S.), so it’s really up for grabs.

Foothills Ryan

There’s always a spot in a bullpen for a guy that gets treated like meat. It’s nice when these guys have options. Beat him up, chew him to a pulp, then send him down to Fresno and bring up the next slab of meat.

A bullpen runs deeper than seven. There’s going to be at least 10 guys that serve the skip out of the pen this year.

Foothills Ryan

New postamajig from The Big A on Scoots.

Foothills Ryan

Eddie Gaedel style! Nice. Good for OBP.

Foothills Ryan

The competition would approve if the adult version batted 2nd. Think Reds and what they had going on last year.

Bapah

30-70 or 20-10-40-30 On the other hand he’s not going to play 162 and given that fact AND that there is a business/personnel issue to deal with, I’d say it’s a lock he’s relaxin’ for a bit and getting healthy for the back stretch.

Yeah, mom`s a keeper. See what you started Bapah. Gonna get myself in trouble talking about GLMs (good looking moms) and their daughters.

DrLefty

So that’s why they call it a bullpen! They’re MEAT!

Michael Scott

I know that, Yogi. It was a joke. I hope you were joking, too.

YogiBarrister

I’m not joking. As you can attest, nobody lies about themselves on the Internet.

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YogiBarrister

Miss Stella Cisse may not be a very good speller, and her grammar is atrocious, but you can tell she’s trustworthy. Probably a Giants fan posting on this very website.

Michael Scott

Yogi, for years you have either made innuendo or flat out accused me of lying about my health status. I’d appreciate it if you would stop it. Many of the Flap regulars have called me in my hospital room at UCSF after what is now lung surgery, 2 craniotomies , 2 gamma knife procedures. I’m now tumor free for two years but still suffer frequent seizures. I have a considerable right side deficit that will never go away. This all after the Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, now in remission. I think that you must be aware that many can confirm what I’ve been through. So please, just stop. We’ve battled over the years but there’s no reason to continue on yet another blog. I wish you the best with your health problems, I hope that the lead poisoning ( I think that’s what it was ) hasn’t affected you further.

Vegas Giants Fan

Fast-tracking worries the heck out of me when it comes to Crick, Blach and Blackburn. I would like to see these guys progress through the system based on how they perform, not because the Giants failed to address the need for an adequate option for a 6th (or emergency) starter. If one of these three force the issue by their performance then that would be fine. However, rushing one (or more) of them could cause more harm than good. The Eastern League will provide them a great opportunity to prove themselves against some of the best prospects their opponents have to offer. I want them confident and ready when their time comes. I don’t want to see happen to them what happened to Michael Kickham. Kickham has more talent than people give him credit for but they rushed the kid not once, but twice* and look what happened to him. I’m not saying that our big three would perform as poorly as Michael did, but chances are if the Giants put them in a situation they are not ready for the results could detract from their development.

Let’s enjoy their season at Richmond. If we’re lucky maybe one or more can help out of the bullpen during a stretch run for the pennant.

Go Giants and Squirrels.

* Kickham went from Augusta to Richmond to the Majors in a little more than two professional seasons. (Faster than Bumgarner)

DrLefty

As a general principle, you’re right, and I absolutely agree with you about Kickham. But as a counterpoint, Tim Lincecum barely pitched in the minors and probably could have jumped right from the draft to the majors. And look at Wacha–drafted in 2012 as a comp pick for Pujols and pitching in the World Series in 2013.

I guess the point is every pitcher is unique, and the key thing is how they look, not how much time they’ve logged.