sábado, 23 de junio de 2018

Gen Xers and younger generation are the clear majority this November

Rubén Weinsteiner

Voters in Provo, Utah, cast their ballots in the 2016 presidential election.

Generation
X, Millennials and the post-Millennial generation make up a clear
majority of voting-eligible adults in the United States, but if past
midterm election turnout patterns hold true, they are unlikely to cast
the majority of votes this November. Not only are younger adults less
likely to participate in midterm elections, but Millennials and Gen Xers
have a track record of low turnout in midterms compared with older
generations when they were the same age.

As of April 2018 (the most recent data available), 59% of adults who are eligible to vote are Gen Xers, Millennials or “post-Millennials.”
In the 2014 midterm election, which had a historically low turnout,
these younger generations accounted for 53% of eligible voters but cast
just 36 million votes – 21 million fewer than the Boomer, Silent and
Greatest generations, who are ages 54 and older in 2018.

Since
2014, the number of voting-eligible Gen Xers, Millennials and
post-Millennials has increased by 18 million. Some of this increase
stems from Gen Xers and Millennials who have naturalized and become U.S.
citizens. But the bulk of it is due to the addition of 15 million adult
post-Millennials (18 to 21 years old) who are now voting age.

Meanwhile,
the electoral potential of Baby Boomers and older generations has
declined since the last midterm. Driven mainly by deaths, there are now
10 million fewer eligible voters among the Boomer and older generations
than there were in 2014.

The generational makeup of the electorate matters because, as Pew Research Center surveys have shown, generational differences in political preferences
are now as wide as they have been in decades. For example, among
registered voters, 59% of Millennials affiliate with the Democratic
Party or lean Democratic. About half of Boomers (48%) and 43% of the
Silent Generation identify as or lean Democratic.

Whether Gen X
and younger generations will be the majority of voters in the November
midterms will depend on how many of those who are eligible actually turn
out to vote. In the 2016 presidential election, Gen X and younger
generations were a majority of voters. But turnout in midterm elections tends to be significantly lower than in presidential elections, particularly among younger adults.

In
the 2014 midterm election, only 39% of Gen Xers who were eligible
turned out to vote, as did a significantly smaller share of eligible
Millennials (22%). It’s important to note, however, that the 2014
election is not representative of all midterms, as only 42% of all
eligible voters reported voting – the lowest turnout in a midterm
election since consistent data have been available.

It’s
difficult to predict who will turn out to vote in the upcoming 2018
midterm. A reasonable scenario might be that eligible voters would turn
out as they have, on average, in past midterm elections. Gen Xers and
Millennials have consistently underperformed in terms of voter turnout
in midterm elections, compared with Boomers when they were the same age.
Millennials have had the opportunity to vote in four midterm elections
(2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014). Among Millennials who were between the ages
of 18 and 24 during these elections, 20% turned out to vote, on
average. By comparison, 26% of Boomers in that same age range turned out
to vote in midterm elections between 1978 and 1986.

Turnout
in midterm elections has been somewhat higher for older Millennials
than for younger ones. Still, the gap between older Millennials and
similarly aged Boomers is considerable. Among Millennials who were ages
25 to 29 at the time, 26% turned out on average for midterm elections
between 2006 and 2014. That compares with 36% of eligible Boomers in
that age range, on average, who voted in midterms between 1978 and 1992.

These generational comparisons over time are rough at best,
however, as each midterm election has its own unique set of issues and
national conditions which undoubtedly influence overall turnout.

What do these patterns tell us about potential turnout in the 2018 midterm elections?

If
past turnout patterns hold – and taking into account that each
generation has aged four years since 2014 – the data suggest that Gen
Xers, Millennials and post-Millennials would not be a majority of voters
in 2018. More specifically, extending the historical trends forward,
one would expect roughly 47 million of the votes cast in 2018 would come
from these three younger generations (up from 36 million in 2014),
compared with 55 million votes cast by Boomer and older voters.

The
analytical catch: There are, of course, no guarantees the past will
repeat itself. If the younger generations were to turn out to vote at
the rates Boomers did when they were younger, post-Millennials,
Millennials and Gen Xers would account for the majority of votes.

Turnout
depends on myriad factors, including voter engagement, and therefore
these calculations are not projections of the generational turnout this
November. Rather, this analysis demonstrates, based on past midterm
voting behavior, how the changing generational composition of the
electorate could impact voting dynamics going forward.

Methodology
note: The estimated 2018 vote counts are derived by applying each
generation’s average turnout rate to the electorate as of April 2018 and
factoring in the assumption that the oldest of each generation will
turn out as the youngest members of the next generation (for example, if
Millennials ages 34 to 37 turn out to vote in the same proportion as
Gen Xers ages 34 to 37 turned out to vote).