Michael Deacon watches David Cameron give his long-awaited speech on Europe,
in which he promised an in-out EU referendum if he wins the next election.

So, to summarise: David Cameron is determined that we remain in the EU. And so he’s letting us vote to leave it.

Complex business, politics.

Of course, he doesn’t want us to remain in the EU as it stands: he wants a reformed EU, with lots of powers given back to Britain. Once he’s got us that reformed EU, then we get to vote on whether we want it.

There is, I suppose, a small possibility that Mr Cameron won’t win back those powers, meaning that when the referendum finally comes, he’ll have to say either, “Er. Oh dear. Out we go then, I suppose. Oops”, or, “Er. Oh dear. Look, you wouldn’t mind awfully voting for us to stay in anyway, there’s good chaps.”

But as Mr Cameron’s promise of an in-out referendum depends entirely on the Conservatives winning the 2015 general election, that question may prove academic anyway.

This morning, in the City of London, Mr Cameron at last gave his big Europe speech. Though its language was plain and its delivery smooth, and its promise of an in-out referendum clear (he said it twice, staring straight at the TV camera as he did so), it was a speech full of paradoxes. I want us to stay, so here’s an opportunity to leave. If we don’t have a referendum, we’re more likely to leave. Having fewer things in common would bring the EU countries closer together.

After many of his points he took care to put the other side of the argument, or at least his gloss on it. It was all “Some might say…” this, “Some will claim…” that, “There are those who will say…” the other.

Whoever these “some” were, they had a helpful habit of never putting any points that Mr Cameron would have found more difficult to answer, e.g. “Some will say I didn't want to make this promise and am only doing it now to fend off the threat of Ukip to the Tory vote in 2015, and that this is basically a short-termist gamble to win the next election, and hang the consequences till later.”

They’re very polite, those “some”.

Still, things could be worse for Mr Cameron; he could, for example, be Ed Miliband, who said last week that promising a referendum would threaten our economy. Presumably now Mr Miliband will have to commit to not holding a referendum should Labour win in 2015. A commitment that might well lose him some votes.

After the speech Mr Cameron took a few questions from reporters. One asked what would happen if he failed to win back the powers he wanted: would he still, to quote his speech, campaign for staying in with “all my heart and all my soul”, or would he campaign for leaving?

“Well, I’m an optimist,” replied Mr Cameron sternly.

Noticing that he didn’t seem to have answered the question, another reporter asked it too.

“Who goes into a negotiation expecting to fail?” replied Mr Cameron. “That might be the approach you take, but it’s not the approach I take. I go into a negotiation hoping, believing and expecting to succeed!”

Go on, Prime Minister. That’s the spirit. There’s no point thinking about what might happen if our plan doesn’t work, because there’s literally no chance that it won’t!

Let the debate begin – all five years of it. We have nothing to lose but our minds.