American optimism declines: poll

Guelph Mercury

Americans’ expectations for the year ahead are bleaker than they’ve been in more than a decade, with Republicans leading the way in adopting gloomier outlooks, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

A bare 53 per cent majority of all Americans are “hopeful” about their lives in 2013; 44 per cent say they are instead more “fearful.” Their assessments of what’s in store for the world are even more grim: A record low 40 per cent report being hopeful about next year, with 56 per cent saying they are more fearful.

Those personally hopeful numbers are down sharply from four years ago, when 63 per cent said as much after President Barack Obama’s historic first election. The trend is even more striking compared with expectations for 2007, before the national economic bubble burst. In December 2006, nearly three-quarters were more hopeful than fearful about the coming year.

Perceptions of a lingering recession, a weak economic recovery and fears that the nation will fall off the “fiscal cliff” underpin these sagging expectations. More than three-quarters think the economy is still in a recession, despite positive indicators such as falling unemployment.

The fast-approaching Dec. 31 deadline for Congress and Obama to reach a budget deal is compounding negative perceptions of the coming year. About 45 per cent think the president and congressional Republicans probably will not reach an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff, a set of automatic tax increases and spending cuts. Personal fears about the new year rise to 58 per cent among those who think this failure is likely.

Nearly six in 10 are very concerned about the national economy if a budget agreement is not reached soon. Among those with high concern, 53 per cent are fearful about the future.

Not all the perceptions are slipping. Fully 53 per cent say that based on their own experiences, the economy has begun to recover, a sentiment that has crept up steadily from 36 per cent in November 2011 to a new high. Still, even among those who see a recovery happening, most say it is weak.

Republicans and Democrats report far different perceptions of the recovery as well as hopes for their lives. More than seven in 10 Democrats say the economy is beginning to recover, but fewer than half as many Republicans see a turnaround.

Rising fears are concentrated among Republicans, peaking at 72 per cent and up a remarkable 52 percentage points from 2006. In 2008, after Obama’s victory, Republicans split 44 per cent to 54 per cent between hope and fear.

Democrats are far more positive, with 75 per cent hopeful about their lives, exactly the same as in 2008. Even during George W. Bush’s presidency, majorities of Democrats expressed a hopeful outlook.

Independents split about evenly between hope and fear.

In separate questions about the coming year, the public divides narrowly between optimism and pessimism about the state of the economy, the way things are going in the country overall and chances for bipartisan agreement in Washington.

A 55 per cent majority is optimistic about the policies Obama will pursue in the coming year, a comedown from the 68 per cent who were optimistic when he was first elected in 2008. The current rating is propped up by 85 per cent optimism among Democrats, a point shy of their rating four years ago.

Republican fears extend to these areas, too: At least eight in 10 report pessimism about the economy, the country and the president’s agenda. Two-thirds are pessimistic about co-operation between Obama and Republicans in Congress.

The public does remain bullish on one subject: Two-thirds are optimistic about their family’s financial situation. That feeling crosses partisan lines and has been stable for the past four years.

The telephone poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday among a random national sample of 1,002 adults. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.