Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year. In March 2013, the numbers of FOMC participants who judged that the first increase in the target federal funds rate would occur in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 were, respectively, 1, 4, 13, and 1.

Appropriate pace of policy firmingNumber of participants with projected targets

Target federal funds rate at year-end
(Percent)

2013

2014

2015

Longer Run

0 - 0.37

18

15

1

0.38 - 0.62

1

2

0.63 - 0.87

3

0.88 - 1.12

3

4

1.13 - 1.37

2

1.38 - 1.62

1

3

1.63 - 1.87

1.88 - 2.12

1

2.13 - 2.37

2.38 -2.62

2.63 - 2.87

2.88 - 3.12

3

3.13 - 3.37

1

3.38 - 3.62

2

3.63 - 3.87

1

3.88 - 4.12

9

4.13 - 4.37

3

4.38 - 4.62

3

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percentage point) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2013

2014

2015

Longer Run

June
projections

March
projections

June
projections

March
projections

June
projections

March
projections

June
projections

March
projections

2 - 2.1

2

1

0

0

0

0

2

2

2.2 - 2.3

4

4

1

0

1

0

11

10

2.4 - 2.5

9

4

0

0

1

1

5

6

2.6 - 2.7

4

5

1

2

0

0

0

0

2.8 - 2.9

0

3

1

2

2

3

0

0

3 - 3.1

0

2

3

2

2

1

1

1

3.2 - 3.3

0

0

6

7

2

2

0

0

3.4 - 3.5

0

0

6

5

6

7

0

0

3.6 - 3.7

0

0

1

0

4

4

0

0

3.8 - 3.9

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range

2013

2014

2015

Longer Run

June
projections

March
projections

June
projections

March
projections

June
projections

March
projections

June
projections

March
projections

5 - 5.1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

5.2 - 5.3

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

5

5.4 - 5.5

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

7

5.6 - 5.7

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

0

5.8 - 5.9

0

0

0

0

3

0

2

0

6 - 6.1

0

0

0

1

10

7

4

6

6.2 - 6.3

0

0

2

1

3

6

0

0

6.4 - 6.5

0

0

2

1

1

5

0

0

6.6 - 6.7

0

0

10

2

0

0

0

0

6.8 - 6.9

1

1

5

7

0

0

0

0

7 - 7.1

1

1

0

7

0

0

0

0

7.2 - 7.3

14

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

7.4 - 7.5

3

11

0

0

0

0

0

0

7.6 - 7.7

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2013-15 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.