DTN Market Impact Weather

Midwest Heat Next Week

OMAHA (DTN) -- Short-term rain followed by drier and hotter conditions in the Midwest, and limited rain chances in Russia, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

SHORT-TERM MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to heavy rain in the Midwest through the next week. The rainfall will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops. Dry areas of the southwestern Midwest are also likely to take in some needed moisture. Cooler weather early through early next week will slow crop development, while warmer weather later is more favorable for growth. The 10-day forecast brings in drier and hotter conditions. This prospect will bear close watching for possible early-July stress to crops as corn goes into its pollination stage and soybeans move into the flowering stage.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Thunderstorms and more seasonal temperatures are expected in northern and central areas of the Southern Plains during the next few days. This should favor summer crops, while being somewhat unfavorable for maturing wheat and the wheat harvest. Local fields may see some impact from severe weather during this period. Southern sectors will be drier and hotter, which favors wheat harvest while maintaining high stress levels on row crops and pastures.

HOT AND DRY IN WEST TEXAS

West Texas cotton areas continue on track to have a drier and hotter weather pattern through the next week to 10 days.

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MILD BUT DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains' conditions are favorable for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans at this time. However, very little rain is forecast for the North Dakota-northern Minnesota area through the next week. This will reduce soil moisture in an area that is already short on soil moisture. The weather is not expected to be very warm, which will mitigate the drier trend.

WARM WEEKEND IN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, warm weather and scattered showers will favor developing crops during the next five days, although some locations could use more rain to support continued favorable development. Temperatures will turn cooler with limited rain through the middle of next week. The longer-range forecast is more promising for rainfall, but this is highly uncertain.

SCATTERED RUSSIA SHOWERS

Across the Black Sea region, south and east Ukraine and south Russia will continue hot, with highs in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit, Friday. Scattered thundershowers will break this heat wave during the weekend period. Stress remains high on developing corn and sunflower in the area, but should ease some during the weekend. The temperature pattern going forward is more variable in nature. One consistent feature is that rainfall totals are moistly near to below normal.

VARIABLE NORTHEAST CHINA TEMPERATURES

Northeast China will have a warming trend during the weekend, followed by more rain chances and lower temperatures next week. This is a mostly favorable pattern for corn and soybean development.

MIXED NORTH CHINA PLAIN PATTERN

The North China Plain was mainly dry Thursday, featuring only scattered thunderstorms in northwestern areas. Temperatures were generally in the mid-80s to mid-90s Fahrenheit. The region should be mostly dry and warm to hot through Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move northward into important growing areas of Henan and Shandong Sunday into Monday. The activity may favor the south and east part of the area. Following this rain chance, another extended dry spell appears likely. The weather pattern has a brief cooler trend, but then turns warm to hotter again later.

MORE-PROMISING INDIA MONSOON FORECAST

India monsoon winds have shown little movement at the leading edge for about two weeks. The leading edge remains approximately at the average June 10 position. Thunderstorms have, at times, reached northern Maharashtra and southern areas of Madhya Pradesh. Satellite imagery does present an improved prospect for advancement of the monsoon line compared with a week ago. The models are forecasting an increase in showers in key central interior growing areas during the next week. This should include key growing areas of Maharahstra and Madhya Pradesh. It is not certain this would include the Gujarat cotton and groundnut areas, although it will be close.

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Bryce Anderson

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