Election Result

New Margin: LIB 5.3% (changed party)

(*) - The party status of this electorate has changed. See notes on redistribution below.

MP

Joanna Gash (LIB) since 1996.

Profile

Gilmore is a mixed electorate covering 4,878 sq.km on the NSW south coast. Based in the agricultural Shoalhaven River valley, its main population centres are Nowra-Bomaderry, Kiama, Milton-Ulladulla and the southern parts of Shellharbour City Council. The small coastal communities that dot the electorate are popular destinations for retirees and holiday makers after a cheap secluded holiday, though the areas in Shellharbour added in the redistribution are an urban extension of the Wollongong metropolitan area. Gilmore also includes scenic Jervis Bay, but not the naval base, hich is on Commonwealth territory and so included in the Canberra electorate of Fraser.

Redistribution

The Liberal Party's grip on Gilmore has been weakened by the redistribution. The electorate shifts north, losing 13,000 voters in Batemans Bay where the Liberal 2-party vote was 54.8% in 2007, while gaining 18,000 voters from Throsby where Labor's 2-party vote was 67.2%. On paper the existing Liberal margin of 4.1% is wiped out, replaced by an estimated Labor margin of 0.4%. However, Gash is a well known sitting member and has previously represented some of the areas added to the electorate. It is likely that her vote will be higher than that recorded for the Liberal candidate in Throsby at the 2007 election.

History/Trivia

The electorate of Gilmore was created by the 1984 redistribution and named after Australian poet and author Dame Mary Gilmore. The seat was initially held by the National Party's John Sharpe 1984-93, but when the 1992 redistribution re-drew Gilmore as a small coastal electorate, he chose to follow Goulburn and Cowra out of Gilmore and into Hume. Sharpe was elected as MP for Hume at the same election as Labor's Peter Knott won Gilmore. After one term as a somewhat eccentric backbencher, Knott lost to the Liberal Party's Joanna Gash in 1996. She retained the seat in 1998 with a below average 2.2% swing against her, and then achieved a substantial 10.1% swing in her favour in 2001, the largest in the country. The accepted explanation of this huge swing in 2001 was Labor Party's decision to nominate former member Peter Knott. The 2004 election saw a swing of 4.5% to Labor's new candidate, substantially against the NSW trend, suggesting Labor does better in this seat without Peter Knott as its candidate.

Issues

The Labor Party initially proposed former Rugby League player David Boyle as its candidate. He was imposed by Labor Party head office in Sydney over the objections of local Labor branches and eventually withdrew as a candidate in mid-June.

Polling

An Illawarra Mercury/IRIS Market Research survey published on 24 July had the Liberal Party leading 60%-40% after preferences. The poll had a small sample size of 400 and reported first preference votes as Liberal 58%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%. This poll was the best Liberal result of any poll published in the first week of the campaign.

2006 Census Notes

Gilmore contains many retirement havens, giving the electorate the country's second highest median age (43), and at 19.5% the fourth highest proportion of residents aged over 65.

Assessment

Joanna Gash will do better in the areas added from Throsby than did the Liberal candidate contesting Throsby in 2007, which will give the Liberal Party some hope of retaining this seat. Her prospects for re-election have also improved as Labor argued over its candidates, and as Labor's opinion poll lead withered.

2010 BALLOT PAPER (7 Candidates)

Candidate Name

Party

BRUMERSKYJ, Bohdan

Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)

van der WIJNGAART, Ben

The Greens

CUNNINGHAM, Elizabeth

Family First

REILLY, Neil

Labor

GASH, Joanna

Liberal

WILLIAMS, Annette

Secular Party of Australia

KEYS, Don

Liberal Democrats (LDP)

CANDIDATES

Ben van der Wijngaart

Greens

Van der Wijngaart works in small business but previously served 33 years in the Royal Australian Air Force where he held a number of senior positions. He is Deputy Mayor of Kiama Council and is involved in numerous local environment groups and campaigns. He has contested state and federal elections for the Greens since 2004.

Reilly has spent most of his working lifetime in the marketing/advertising industry working for both clients and agencies in television production, client service, creative development and media planning. Outside of advertising he spent two and a half years in the army, and a year writing screenplays. In 2007 he also completed a Post Graduate Degree in International Relations, at Deakin University. He was the Labor candidate in this seat at the 2007 election and has served on Kiama Council since 2008.

66 year-old Gash was born in the Netherlands, migrating to Australia with her parents when she was just six. Before her election she was a local businesswoman working in the tourism and hospitality industry, serving on Wingecarribee Council and part-owner of Ranleigh House guest house in Robertson. She has retained this seat through diligent constituency work, something that will assist her as she tries to retain this seat on its new notionally Labor boundaries.

Keys was born in Bulli and started his working life in advertising in 1977. By 1981 he had started his own graphics company. In the spring of 2001 Keys embarked on a new career in publishing, starting the national music magazine 'Trad & Now', and found himself dealing with people from all works of life, brought together by a common love of music.