Nov. 8th, 2016

Nov. 8th, 2016

At this point, I'm fairly hopeful that Clinton will win and expect her to be a slightly better President than Obama, but like many I'm also deeply terrified of the alternative. However, there's one aspect of the presidential election I find interesting and potentially important in the longer term. I've seen quite a bit about vote-trading by anti-Trump Republicans and Independents, even and a few Democrats, who are trading Clinton votes in swing states for Gary Johnson votes in blue states.

It's clear that Gary Johnson is a complete idiot, and I am also dead set against US-style right-wing libertarianism (although left-libertarianism and anarcho-communism interest me quite a bit). However, I'm also notably less opposed to right-wing libertarianism than I am to aggressive white nationalism. If the vote trading works out, then in addition to electing Clinton by a slightly wider margin, the Libertarian Party might barely get above the 5% threshold for getting Federal matching funds in the next presidential election. I don't expect this to have much impact on Clinton's re-election, or on Democrats in general, but it may for Republican candidates.

If Trump loses, there will be even more people in the GOP than there were in 2012 (quite correctly) saying that the only way to insure the long or even medium-term health of the GOP is to increase its appeal to non-white voters – a task that will be considerably more difficult in 2017 than it was in 2013. However, there will be almost as many saying that the answer is to select a white nationalist candidate who isn't a complete train-wreck of a human being, and there's no evidence that those people won't carry the day with the party. However, if the GOP continues along its current white nationalist path, pressure from both the Democrats and a better funded Libertarian Party that looks pretty darn welcoming to Republicans who aren't white nationalists will help make a white nationalist GOP a seriously non-viable option. I don't expect a better-funded Libertarian Party to replace the Republican Party, but it might force the GOP towards some much-needed change. We shall see.