The New York Mets Are The Most Overrated Team In Baseball

We are near the one-third mark of the season, and if we look at the right numbers, we can see which teams have played over their heads, and which teams should start playing better.

And no team is more overrated right now than the New York Mets.

The Mets are 31-23, and tied for first place in the National League East. But amazingly, the Mets have played eight games over .500 despite giving up more runs (245) than they have scored (239). Only two other teams in baseball (Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates) currently have a winning record despite being outscored this season.

Over the course of a full season, the number of runs a team scores and allows can be used to fairly accurately predict the number of games the team will win, using Pythagorean Win%.

For the Mets, they have 31 wins. But based on their runs scored and runs allowed, they have played more like a 26-win team that would be five games out of first place. At the other end of the scale, we see the St. Louis Cardinals are only 27-27 despite outscoring their opponents by 47 runs.

In other words, look for the Cardinals to win more games as the season gets older and for the Mets to start playing more like a .500 team.

Here is every MLB team and their expected win totals based on runs scored and runs allowed (eDIFF is the different between actual wins and expected wins)...