The declaration was made on Friday, October 27, after the region's parliament - elected legally under the Spanish constitution but now defying it - voted 70-10 in favor of independence. Anti-independence parties boycotted the vote, but 70 votes is enough that the motion would have passed either way, since the body has a total of 135 members.

Notably, Catalonia's pro-independence lawmakers chose to declare it a "republic", in contrast to Spain, which is not a republic but a constitutional monarchy (both are forms of democratic government).

Spain's Political Intervention

The same day the independence declaration was made, Spain's legislature followed up on its promise to implement direct rule
in Catalonia, officially suspending the region's president and other officials
while dissolving the regional parliament. The Spanish government called
new Catalan parliamentary elections for December 21. But it's hard to
say whether Catalonia's officials and institutions will obey the
orders, or how that election might go.

What Happens Next?

Spain, the Catalan people, and the world are still waiting to see what the members of Catalonia's officially-deposed government will do. Nearly half of the region's parliament has already signaled its compliance with Spanish courts by sitting out of the independence vote, but it's unclear whether the rest of the body plans to step down as ordered.

Fired Catalan president Carles Puigdemont gave a speech on Saturday as if he were still in office, but without explicitly saying that he would defy the orders (potentially a crime that could land him a 30-year prison sentence). Whether the rest of the region's officials will hand over control to the Spanish central government also remains to be seen.

The leader of Catalonia's autonomous police force, for one, reportedly stepped down almost immediately yesterday. The force had wiggled its way out of helping shut down the independence vote on October 1, but without openly defying the Spanish government. This new gesture of compliance helps play down any threat of a standoff between local and national police, which is consistent with the independence movement's commitment to non-violent tactics.

On that note, pro-independence leaders have called for mass civil disobedience
from the Catalan people, which could mean street protests plus
government employees refusing to take orders from Spain. But right now,
it's still too early to say what will actually happen.

Will Catalonia Become a Country?

It's
uncertain enough whether independence supporters can hold onto control
of Catalan government institutions. But if they can, does that make
Catalonia a real country? Not necessarily. To be accepted into the
world community, an independence declaration has to be "recognized" by
other countries. Without that, Catalonia wouldn't be able to get into
the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), or other important
international organizations, and diplomats would be obliged to
ignore it.

Catalonia's place in the EU - which it would likely loose if was recognized as independent. Map by Evan Centanni, from this blank map by Ssolbergj. License: CC BY-SA

So far, things aren't looking good for supporters
of the Catalan Republic. No other country has yet granted it
recognition, and only a few have even come close to expressing interest.
There's been speculation that some maverick governments, like
Venezuela and North Korea, might do it, but so far the only places that
have even publicly offered are Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two controversial self-declared countries that only have a few recognitions of their own. And even major would-be countries like Palestine and Kosovo,
who are recognized by over half the world, still don't have
full membership in the UN, so a handful of recognitions isn't going to
cut it.

And beyond the issue of the local government
obedience to Spain, there's also the question of military and police
control. Self-declared countries like Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or
even completely unrecognized ones like Transnistria or Somaliland,
take what credibility they have from demonstrating that their own armed
forces control access to their territories and enforce the rule of law within them.
But it will be very difficult for Catalonia to create a similar
situation in it's own territory, especially since no one seems to want a civil war.
Spain's police and national guard would have to first withdraw from
Catalonia, and it seems unlikely that would happen without a negotiated
agreement between Catalan separatists and the Spanish government.