Sunday, May 07, 2006

Ohioooooooooooooooooo

Early Intensity Underlines Role of Races in Ohio By ADAM NAGOURNEY and IAN URBINA

COLUMBUS, Ohio, May 6 — For the Democratic Party, the road back to power in Washington begins here in Ohio. But as long-dominant Ohio Republicans struggle with a corruption scandal, economic distress and rising voter unease, Democrats face a challenge in making the state a launching pad to seize control of Congress and the White House, leaders of both parties say.

As Ohio turned from the primaries last Tuesday to its competitive thicket of contests this fall, party officials and analysts said one of the Democrats' most alluring targets, Senator Mike DeWine, seemed less vulnerable than he had earlier this year.

And Democrats said that while they were hopeful they would be able to elect the first Democratic governor in 16 years — filling the seat of Bob Taft, who is leaving office after a corruption scandal — the fight will not be easy.

The intensity of political activity here underlies Ohio's status as the most contested political battleground in the nation, where nearly all of the forces shaping American politics today are on display.

Currently, Republicans control the governor's mansion and both houses of the legislature. The two United States senators are Republican, and the party has a 12-to-6 edge in the Congressional delegation. And President Bush won Ohio in 2000 and 2004, in both cases helping tip the balance for his victories.

Nevertheless, Democrats hope to make substantial gains here because of mounting displeasure with Mr. Bush over the economy, the war in Iraq and distress with the Republican leadership in the state.

In one welcome turn for Democrats, two Republican members of Congress are vulnerable, victims of the curdled political environment, analysts said.

But Democratic hopes of knocking out a third Republican, Representative Bob Ney, who has been linked to the Jack Abramoff corruption investigation, were set back when the Democrats' favored candidate, Mayor Joe Sulzer of Chillicothe, lost to a lesser-known and politically inexperienced challenger, Zack Space.

Further, those potential gains could be offset if Democrats fail to hold two Democratic seats that opened up when Representative Sherrod Brown decided to run for the Senate and Representative Ted Strickland entered the race for governor. "The fall election is not going to be a cakewalk," said State Senator Charlie Wilson, the Democratic candidate to succeed Mr. Strickland.

Nonetheless, Republicans are in as bad shape in Ohio as they are in anyplace in the United States, presenting the Democrats with their best opportunity this year. The major question is whether Democrats will be able to emerge from Ohio with incremental gains, or the kind of sweeping victories that could produce long-lasting changes in the national political landscape.

Of the 18 Ohio Congressional districts, five seats are considered in play. Ideally, Democratic Party leaders said, they will gain at least three Congressional seats in Ohio — Democrats need 15 nationally to take back the House — along with a Senate seat and the governorship.

In many ways, the political environment here mirrors the national one, with its brew of economic anxiety, corruption and voter weariness with one-party dominance. Beyond corruption and worry about Iraq, the contests in Ohio are shaping up as a face-off between two powerful forces in American politics: economic issues, led by job loss, trade and health care worries; and social issues, notably abortion, same-sex marriage and gun control.

The Ohio Democratic chairman, Chris Redfern, said in an interview that national Democrats needed to "focus on the governor's race above all" to lay the groundwork for the 2008 presidential election and suggested that this was where the party had its best hope of success.

But Mr. Redfern warned that Mr. Strickland's contest with J. Kenneth Blackwell, the hard-hitting Ohio secretary of state, could prove tougher than many Washington Democrats think.

"I'm cautiously optimistic about the governor's race, but I also really think this is going to be much more difficult than Democrats believe it will be," Mr. Redfern said. "Huge resources will be poured into this race, and Ken Blackwell is going to come at Congressman Strickland with rhetoric that will be totally unlike anything we've ever seen."

There is no party registration in Ohio, but 40 percent of voters in 2004 said they were Republican, compared with 35 percent who said they were Democrat, according to a survey of people leaving the polls. Conservative Christians, who make up an estimated quarter of the voting population, proved critical to Mr. Bush's 120,0000-vote victory here in 2004.

With seven highly-charged races being played against the ever-present backdrop of past and future presidential races, parts of Ohio are in the grip of the kind of political fury normally not seen until the final days of a campaign, with all the social and political cleavages on full display.

On Thursday, Mr. Blackwell — a leading advocate of the state ban on same-sex marriage who opposes abortion in every instance, including to save the life of the pregnant woman — led a crowd in prayer at an outdoor National Day of Prayer vigil. As those gathered bowed their heads and murmured chants of "Thank you, Jesus" in a light spring drizzle, Mr. Blackwell was forced to raise his voice to be heard over the din of banging pots and pans and chants by workers who had been forced out of their jobs demonstrating across High Street.

The Democratic campaign to unseat Senator DeWine has been pivotal to the party's ambition for capturing the Senate. But those hopes have been dampened as Republicans began a barrage of attacks on Mr. Brown's positions on taxes, military appropriations and social issues. The attacks have been pressed by Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, who flew here last month to urge the mild-mannered Mr. DeWine to adopt the strategy to avoid defeat, Ohio Republicans said.

Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, the head of the Republican Senate campaign committee, said attacks on Mr. Brown's ideology would compensate for what she acknowledged was a difficult atmosphere for Republicans.

Mr. Brown is considered one of the more liberal members of the state's Congressional delegation; he supports abortion rights, opposed the constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage and voted against the war in Iraq.

"Sherrod Brown is out of the mainstream," Mrs. Dole said. "I don't think his kind of liberalism will sell across the state. Drawing the contrast is the key here: it's the choice between the two candidates, despite the environment."

Mr. DeWine said he would wait until later in the year before drawing such distinctions himself. "I am in the mainstream of the state, and I don't think he is," he said. "I'm not going to spend a lot of time, at this point in the campaign, getting into this. It's a little early."

Mr. Brown, handing out leaflets at a coffee shop in Columbus on Monday, said Republicans were trying to take attention away from his focus on economic issues.

"Republicans are going to try to shift attention away from these economic issues and move the focus to social issues like abortion and gay marriage to fire up their base, but I don't think its going to work like it did in 2004," he said. "People in Ohio are seeing now how corruption affects their pocketbook and how gas prices go up when a party corruptly allows oil companies to set policy, and how Medicare becomes impossible when you allow the pharmaceutical companies to dictate policy."

Democrats and analysts said here that in the governor's race Mr. Strickland was less vulnerable to that kind of attack — he opposes gun control and represents one of the most conservative districts in the state — but Mr. Blackwell said that would not deter him.

"We will both be asked to defend our positions on abortion, on marriage, on a whole host of issues, and people will be able to see how he measures up to their values," Mr. Blackwell said. "Strickland will probably underestimate and underappreciate the degree to which my vision connects with a broad base of Ohioans."

Mr. Strickland said he would prefer to talk about economic issues. "That would be wonderful," he said.

But, he said: "I am prepared to respond to whatever attacks come from him in these areas. I don't think most people in Ohio believe these are the issues that are central to the responsibilities of being governor."

State officials estimate that Ohio has lost more than 175,000 manufacturing jobs in the last decade and the number of adults in the state without health care has risen by 45 percent; a result is a decidedly anxious electorate where over 70 percent of respondents in some polls say the state is heading in the wrong directions.

"Things have really headed downhill in the country between the war and jobs and all these scandals," said Rachel Jackson, 36, a "diehard Republican."

The political environment here has put two once-safe Republican members of Congress in jeopardy: Representatives Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce.

Mrs. Pryce been the target of nearly $100,000 worth of advertisements paid for by Moveon.org, a liberal group, attacking her for taking money from pharmaceutical companies. In a sign of White House concern about her prospects, Laura Bush, the first lady, came here this week to campaign for her.

The corruption issue has given Democrats hope, though Mr. Ney said he was not worried. "Let me be candid, in my race Abramoff is an issue," he said. "But it is not the top issue. Voters in my district are focused on jobs, health care, gas prices and immigration."