2020-2024 Tanker Market Outlook

Our approach to forecasting is based on the development of models that combine analytical processes with practical market assessments. Over time, this approach has been found to be reasonably predictive of future spot market freight levels in the various tanker sectors.

With each publication of our annual outlook, we continue to incorporate enhancements to our forecasts. This year is no exception, and some enhancements in research, methodology and presentation will be included in the 2020-2024 Tanker Market Outlook.

WHAT'S NEW?

The 2020-2024 Tanker Market Outlook brings new enhancements and methodologies, further expanding the use of remotely-sensed vessel position data to better capture fleet growth in terms of newbuilding deliveries and vessel demolitions.

Due to the increased level of demand for US crude volumes, we have replaced the VLCC Carib/Spore by VLCC USG/Korea trade in our forecast table, which provides an outlook on spot rates and TCE earnings over the next five years. Suezmax WAFR/USAC is also replaced by Suezmax Med/CHINA. This will further enhance our freight rate forecast table (14 DPP and 10 CPP trades).

This year’s report will also feature commentary on the impacts on trade flows from the IMO 2020 sulphur regulation, a lookback of 2019 scrubber installations and future estimation as well as forecasted TCE earnings for ECO-type vessels complemented by a variation factor for scrubber-fitted tonnage.