2015 Presidency: Atiku’s narrowing options

The recent omission of former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s name from the list of delegates to the yet unscheduled mini- convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) from his home state, Adamawa, may be a clear pointer that he has, once again, lost out in the power struggle for the nation’s number one job, reports Remi Adelowo

Time was about some minutes to 6pm. It was in the middle of the Ramadan period in 2001 at the official residence of the then vice-president, Atiku Abubakar, within the exclusive confines of the Presidential Villa in Abuja.

The nation’s number two man was playing host to influential politicians, including eight northern governors, two of whom were Christians, ministers, presidential aides and top players in the private sector, who had come to break the fast with him.

The glittering dining table which could contain about 40 people was fully occupied. It was not until about 12pm that guests started to call it a day.

The above scenario was a daily occurrence in the life of Abubakar either in his office or at his residence.

That was how courted and influential Atiku Abubakar was. At that period, not a few Nigerians believed that Abubakar was just a breather away from stepping into the big shoes of his boss, Olusegun Obasanjo.

Seen as the then most powerful man in government, the Adamawa State-born politician wielded enormous powers, so much so that he was described as the most powerful vice-president the country has ever had.

Not only was Abubakar allegedly credited to have influenced the appointment of several people into key positions in government, including ministers, heads of government agencies and parastatals, he also supervised the running of strategic government agencies such as the Bureau for Public Enterprises (BPE), Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), amongst several others.

For most people within and outside Nigeria, Abubakar was the go-to man if you want anything in government.

Abubakar’s larger-than-life status in government at that period was said to be the aftermath of an understanding between him and Obasanjo, on the management of the country.

Due to the long years of military, which has made Nigeria a pariah in the comity of nations, Obasanjo as the story had it, decided to concentrate more on rebuilding the country’s battered image with other foreign countries.

This necessitated his trips to about one hundred countries, leaving him little or no time, making Atiku to hold the forte to take care of domestic responsibilities.

Abubakar leveraged on this opportunity to the fullest. His powers to dispense patronage, coupled with his liberal disposition to life and politics, easily drew people from low and high places to him.

For majority of the governors elected on the platform of the PDP, their closeness and loyalty to Abubakar was total and almost absolute. In him, they saw a listening man who they could relate to and a man that was on the same page with them on issues of common interests.

The manouverings and intense politics in the run-up to the 2003 general elections was the genesis of Abubakar’s political vulnerability after all.

Obasanjo as a first term democratically elected president wanted a second term in office. But he was handicapped.

PDP governors wanted him out and rooted for Abubakar. Being in control of the PDP structures both at the state and federal levels, the governors held the ace and were determined to maximise it.

In the middle of this came barrage of opinion articles in the media that Obasanjo should adopt the ‘Mandela option’ which literally meant that he should tow the path of former President of South Africa, Nelson Mandela, who spent a term in office and handed over to a younger politician, Thabo Mbeki.

Obasanjo, according to reports, was livid, but he kept his cool. He allegedly fingered his deputy as the brain behind this ‘one term’ call.

Before the 2003 PDP primaries:

There were reports that based on the promptings of some governors; Abubakar had obtained the form to contest for the presidential ticket with his boss. But he never returned the form, contrary to the advice of his political associates.

With the solid backing of majority of expected delegates at the convention who were loyalists of the governors, Abubakar’s victory was assured.

Perhaps having come to the realisation that his loss at the primaries was imminent, Obasanjo, according to reports, at a one-on-one, closed door meeting with Abubakar, allegedly pleaded that he should be allowed a second term, while also allegedly assuring his deputy that he would back his presidential ambition in 2007.

D-day of the PDP presidential primaries came with Obasanjo winning the ticket. He ended up clinching a second term after winning the 2003 presidential election.

From this point, he began to bare his fangs on his real and perceived opponents that wanted to stop him from winning a second term in office. Abubakar therefore became the major casualty.

First, his media aides, Chris Mammah and Adeolu Akande were fired by Obasanjo, for being the masterminds of ‘no second term for Obasanjo’ reports in the media.

As a further measure to clip his deputy’s powers, Obasanjo ordered the collapsing of the Presidency into one structure. The implication was that nothing was done by the vice president’s office without his approval.

This war of attrition between the two men continued, forcing Atiku to leave the PDP for the former Action Congress in early 2007, after being deregistered along with some of his supporters who included governors.

His nomination as the presidential candidate of the then AC even as a sitting vice president did not come as as surprise, as most of his close associates, like the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, were the major promoters of the new party.

Abubakar’s lifelong ambition to rule the country again hit the rocks as he lost in the 2007 presidential elections, adjudged as the worst ever conducted in the country.

In a move that is still a source of debate among his associates, Abubakar sometime in 2008 returned to PDP. But ever since then, things have not been the same for him again in the party where he was once revered.

Again in 2011, the former vice president contested the PDP ticket with the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, following his nomination as the consensus candidate of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF).

But he received a drubbing at the PDP primaries with Jonathan winning the presidential ticket by a wide margin.

In the current configuration of the PDP, the former vice president virtually has no say in the running of the party. Aside his regular scathing criticisms of how the party is being run, the latest being his condemnation of the recent fracas in the Rivers State House of Assembly where five members purportedly impeached the Speaker, Otelemaba Dan Amachree, Abubakar’s influence in the ruling party has reached an all time low.

Every passing day, it appears that the options before the former vice president to finally realising his dream for the Presidency are diminishing at a fast pace.

For the 2015 presidential race, the odds are heavily stacked against Abubakar winning the PDP ticket, against the backdrop of an alleged plan to give the incumbent president an automatic ticket.

But even if a primary is conducted, can Abubakar defeat Jonathan with the party structures firmly in the latter’s hands?

If the political realities on ground, however, remain in place till 2015, then Abubakar’s dream to become the next president under the platform of PDP seems far fetched.