Texans takeaways: More on J.J. Watt, Bill O'Brien and key numbers

Teammates clap and gather around Houston Texans star J.J. Watt after finishing a stretch session on Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2019, in Houston. It was Watt's first practice after being on the injured list for two months. He said he is excited to put on the jersey and go back to the field.

Photo: Yi-Chin Lee, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer

Texans’ takeaways from Christmas Day:

How teams gameplan for J.J. Watt

It’s natural for Texans’ fans to get excited about J.J. Watt’s return, but that excitement should be tempered because he’s been out for two months undergoing rehabilitation from surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle.

Watt returned to practice this week and plans to play in the wild card game at NRG Stadium, most likely against Buffalo. If Kansas City defeats the Chargers on Sunday, the Texans will be the fourth seed and host the Bills, no matter what happens in their game against Tennessee.

Watt’s here presence should impact the opponent’s game plan. As long as he’s been out, he still has to be accounted for, no matter how many snaps he plays or how much he’s able to contribute.

“I'm sure it's not going to be an every-play thing, just for the first one back,” Watt said Tuesday. “I don't think that would be the best situation, but we'll see how it feels over the next two weeks and get a gauge for it before we go into that game. I'm sure we'll have a good plan going in.”

Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the biggest beneficiary of Watt’s return to left end, cautioned last week about expecting too much after such a long absence.

“Every player who comes back from an injury, you have to see where he is and what he can and cannot do,” Crennel said. “They have to find out what they can do. That’ll make the difference in how much he can help or will help or if he helps.”

J.J. Watt and the pass rush

Last season, when J.J. Watt had 16 sacks and Jadeveon Clowney nine, the Texans finished with 43, tied for 11th in the NFL. This season, with Watt missing the last seven games and Clowney traded to Seattle, the Texans have 31 (25th). Whitney Mercilus leads with 7 ½, and Watt is still second with four.

In 2018, the Texans were minus-19 in sack differential, primarily because they allowed a league-high 62. With one game left this season, they’re minus-13 ½.

Watt can’t play in the last game against the Titans because players on injured reserve have to miss at least eight games before they can be activated. Watt should be activated for the first playoff game. When he returns, Watt knows what his primary objective will be.

“I’m hoping to help these guys get after the quarterback,” he said. “My No. 1 goal is always to get the football.”

How Texans won without J.J. Watt

As much as the Texans depend on J.J. Watt, they were able to compile a 5-2 record without him, including 3-2 on the road. They beat Jacksonville, Indianapolis, New England, Tennessee and Tampa Bay. At the time they played those teams, only the Jaguars had a losing record. During Watt’s absence, the Texans lost to Baltimore and Denver.

The Texans’ record without Watt is a testament to the job done by the coaches and players. They were up and down, of course, getting embarrassed by the Ravens and Broncos, but rebounding to defeat the Patriots for only the second time and winning the last two on the road against the Titans and Buccaneers.

Statistically, there’s been a significant drop-off without Watt. They went into what would be his last regular season game – a 27-24 victory over Oakland at NRG Stadium – 18th in defense. They were eighth against the run and 24th against the pass. Going into the Tennessee game, they’ve fallen to 28th in defense, including 20th against the run and 30th against the pass.

Bill O'Brien in exclusive company

The Texans have won the AFC South four times in Bill O’Brien’s six years as coach. The only other current coach who has won four division titles in his first six years as a head coach is Andy Reid, who accomplished that feat with Philadelphia. O’Brien, Reid and Bill Belichick are the only coaches to win their division title at least four times since 2015.

Key numbers for a Texans victory

As long as the Texans don’t commit a turnover, they’re almost guaranteed of winning. Since Bill O’Brien was hired in 2014, they are 17-1 when they don’t turn it over, including 3-0 this season.

The Texans’ 94.4 winning percentage without coughing up the ball is second in the NFL since O’Brien became their coach. During that period, they are 32-6 (84.2 percent) when they don’t give the ball away, including 4-1 this season.

One more interesting statistic: The Texans are 5-0 this season when they don’t allow more than one sack.

John McClain, a Waco native who graduated from Baylor in 1975, is in his 43rd year at the Houston Chronicle and his 40th covering the National Football League, including the Oilers and Texans. He worked for the Waco Tribune Herald from 1973-76, when he accepted a job with the Chronicle. to cover the original Houston Aeros of the World Hockey Association.

McClain has a plaque in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio as the 2006 winner of the Dick McCann Memorial Award presented annually by the Pro Football Writers of America to a writer for his long and distinguished coverage of the NFL. He is past president of the Pro Football Writers of America.

He's a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee, the Pro Football Hall of Fame Seniors Committee and the Texas Sports Hall of Fame Selection Committee.

In 2015, he was named as a Gridiron Legend in Texas, becoming the third member of the media behind Dave Campbell and Mickey Herskowitz.

McClain can be heard six times a week on the Texans' flagship station Sports Radio 610 in Houston. He also does weekly sports talk shows in Nashville, Knoxville, Waco, Austin and San Antonio.

McClain also has appeared in eight movies: The Rookie, The Longest Yard, Spring Breakers, Secretariat, Invincible, Cook County, The Game Plan and Make It Rain.