3.
Abstract Brian Kelly will introduce a methodology being used by the JISC Observatory which can help to identify „weak signals‟ for technologies that may have an impact on the sector, as well as „strong signals‟ which may make it difficult for emerging technologies to become embedded. The audience will have an opportunity to apply the methodology across a variety of emerging technologies.3

19.
Time of Growth is Over  Late 2000s and beyond: • Decreased funding across education & public sector • Acknowledgements that innovation can provide growth and cost savings • Significant developments continue in IT sector • Investment in innovative IT developments need to be based on evidence of benefits & likleyhood of success “You want how much? And no Image from Flickr. CC BY-NC-ND licence: evidence it will work! You’re19 http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewleavy/339489258// crazy!”

20.
Lessons From The Past Importance of open standards: • Open standards are essential for interoperability; preservation; … • Therefore use SMIL and SVG (open standards from W3C) and not Flash (proprietary) The need to be realistic • What happened to SMIL and SVG? • The marketplace didn‟t embrace the open standards • Adoption of open standards would have been costly • Flash is now being superceded by HTML5 • Flash‟s demise due to lack of support by Apple on mobile devices20

35.
Paradata Example Dates of survey An example of paradata for a blog post on use of Blekko for an SEO analysis of Russell Group Universities Summary of unexpected findings Limitations of survey methodology People in host institution can provide contextual knowledge if open approaches used35

36.
Lies, Damned Lies and Graphs “#Blekko traffic goes through the roof – for good reason. Try it out!” Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why” (includes dissatisfaction with Goole) Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?,36 UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012

37.
Open Sense-making Importance of open approaches to interpretation of signals: • Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws • Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made • This may lead to wrong decisions being made Open sense-making approaches may be difficult – your marketing department may wish a consistent, positive message to be made.37

38.
Beware vested interests who may be threatened by implications of predictions Developments may • Be aligned with current plans • Challenge current plans38

39.
Sense-Making: Social Media Social media: • Is about nodes and connections • Numbers do matter for effective engagement and disseminations • Experiences from other areas:  Nos. of mobile phones  Importance of email  “All bugs are shallow to many eyes” Implications: • Importance of best practices for popular & well- used channels • Difficulties for new entrants e.g. Diaspora (open alternative to Facebook) and identi.ca and app.net39 (new open alternative to Twitter)

40.
Open Data “Is London 2012 a haven for open data?” Conclusions: • “Not this time” • “But it is the first data Olympics” • “Its hard to see that by [Rio] 2016 this wont emerge as data we can all use”40

41.
Open Data “Manchester City to open the archive on player data and statistics” Example of: • Public interest in open data • Interest from commercial sector41

42.
Use of Open Data in Libraries Trends in reusing Library usage data, e.g. JISC‟s Library Impact Data Project Average number of books borrowed and e-resource Image & data provided by Dave Pattern under a CC logins for ~33,000 students in final year of studies BY-NC-SA licence42

43.
Early Signals? News stories (Aug 2012) about plans for privatisation at London Metropolitan University43

44.
Early Signals? Follow-up comment (20 Aug 2012): “VC should be applauded for the classic business move of getting the university to concentrate on its core activity” Carl Lygo is chief executive of the for profit BPP Professional Education group and principal of BPP University College44

45.
Recap Within your organisation / sector there is a need to have mechanisms for identifying technological developments which may have an impact on the business: • Observing trends and signals • Observing signals from diversity of sources • Interpreting the implications • Identifying changes which may be needed within the organisation • Inviting feedback and critiques of the evidence-gathering processes and the interpretations of the findings45

47.
Challenge For Librarians In time of uncertain futures: • Use evidence-based approaches to understanding the future • Understand the changing environment • Engage with opportunities in areas of growth and institutional importance • Be open and encourage discussion on analysis & interpretation of findings47

48.
Serenity prayer Serenity prayer: God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference. Tim Berners-Lee didn‟t accept the evidence of the popularity of Gopher!48

49.
Conclusions The Data will be Big, but our users will continue to use Facebook and Twitter But research data will grow in importance as will use of mobiles. According to the evidence the future isn‟t quite what I expected. But it has helped to identify our business strategies.49