The article is a hatchet job that cherry-picks a few facts that seem to support its thesis. It's complete bullshit. And it's nothing new. Articles predicting Tesla's demise and recommending shorting the stock are as old as the company itself.

To be fair, if you followed their advice when the article was published, you would have already made a nice profit from shorting the stock.

Even the most prudent investor acknowledges that a LOT had to go just right to justify Tesla's price when it had a market cap greater than Ford. At that price, it was an extremely risky investment. It is no surprise to me that we are beginning to see a correction.

If you have data showing that the article's conclusions are incorrect, I am all ears.

Stocks go up and down all the time. If you trade from one day to the next, whether it's buy and sell or short and cover you can make money or lose money. But over the long run, TSLA has consistently gone up. And the naysayers seldom say "It's at 310, it's going down to 300." More often they say, as that article seemed to, "Tesla is all a house of cards and it's going to collapse and go bankrupt."

Right now Tesla is making far and away the best electric cars you can buy. Maybe another company will decide to get into BEVs seriously and really compete. But that's not happening yet. And I expect the Model 3 to be a big success. I have a fairly early (not first-day) reservation, but I'm probably going to wait for the Performance-AWD version, which is still a year away, and I'm also going to have to test-drive the car to see if it's too big for me. The Model S is WAY too big for me, and the Model 3 is bigger than my Prius, which is already a bigger car than I want.

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Daniel----------------"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."-- Otto von Bismarck

The article is a hatchet job that cherry-picks a few facts that seem to support its thesis. It's complete bullshit. And it's nothing new. Articles predicting Tesla's demise and recommending shorting the stock are as old as the company itself.

Nothing lasts forever. . . .The Earth itself will be eaten when the sun becomes a red giant.Wang lasted something like 47 years as an independent company and Compaq lasted 20 years as an independent company.

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"Give me the storm and tempest of thought and action, rather than the dead calm of ignorance and faith. Banish me from Eden when you will; but first let me eat of the fruit of the tree of knowledge."— Robert G. Ingersoll

I'm resurrecting this thread to talk about my new Model 3, which I got two weeks ago. Contrary to my earlier decision, I decided not to wait for the Performance, Dual-Motor All-Wheel Drive version. The first production cars have the long-range battery, are rear-wheel drive, have the more expensive upgraded interior, and a tinted glass roof. The only options are color, wheels, Enhanced Autopilot, and pre-pay for FSD "when available." The basic color is black, or you can pay extra for red, white, or blue. I got blue, standard wheels, and EAP. I did not pre-pay for FSD because I think it will be several years before that's available, and will probably benefit from additional hardware. I've skimmed the thread, and I'll try to respond to the points made.

Range. This version has a claimed range of 310 miles, but people are reporting range in excess of this. The EPA came up with a higher figure, and Tesla asked them to lower the number to 310 in anticipation of the additional power draw once FSD is available. This range will not be sufficient for everyone, but most American families have more than one car and don't need every car to be a road-trip car. If your family has two cars, you can probably do very nicely with one of them being electric, even a short-rance car like the Nissan Leaf. The short-range version of the Model 3 will have 220 miles range.

Price. There will be a base $35K version. Most people probably will want some options, but if electric is your priority, it will be possible to get the base model for $35K. Not yet, though. Tesla is maximizing cash flow by selling the more expensive one first. As configured, I paid $58,309.75 including all taxes, fees, destination charges, and licensing. The car itself with destination charge was $56,000. Tesla delivered the car to my home in Spokane. There was no additional charge for that. The breakdown: Car: $35K; Long-range battery: $9,000; Premium Upgrades: $5,000; Blue paint: $1,000; Enhanced Autopilot: $5,000; Destination & Documentation fee: $1,000. The LR battery and Premium upgrades were necessary to get the car without waiting for the lower-priced options. I'd have gotten the LR battery anyway. The EAP was my choice. Total $56K. The rest of the $58.3K was sales tax and state licensing. I will get a $7,500 federal tax credit, making the actual cost to me $50.8K.

I love having a quiet car. I feel that complaints of cars being "too quiet" are misdirected. At parking-lot speeds, most cars are so quiet that people fail to hear them routinely. At street speeds, plenty of cars make more tire noise than engine noise. And at high speeds, by the time you hear a car it's too late to get out of the way anyway. The big difference is on hard acceleration, when stinkers create a gawdawful ruckus, and EVs don't.

It's definitely easier to get service on a stinker. But Tesla has a mechanic here in Spokane. So stinkers have an advantage on availability of service, but they also have more that can go wrong, and they need oil changes. Tesla will need to build more service senters as it sells more cars.

Charging and range are the biggest real issues with electric cars. If you have to park on the street, an electric car probably won't work very well for you. You want a place to charge, such as a garage or at least a carport next to your house. Even a detached garage in an apartment or condo complex can be problematic, depending on the rules regarding charging. In Maui, complexes with separate garages generally allow charging in the garage only if you have an electric meter installed at your own expense. Tesla has installed superchargers all over the place along major highways, making long trips possible if you're following the major highways. But it's still less convenient than gasoline. And if you leave the highway system for secondary roads, it can become much harder. There are a lot of Level 2 chargers popping up, but they typically deliver about 30 miles of range in an hour's charging. And if a location has only one, it could be occupied when you want it. This is a very real drawback of electric cars.

In addition, heat draws energy from the battery and cuts down on range. In Spokane, in our coldest weather, the heater probably cuts 20% off the range in my Roadster. I've never use the A/C because the Roadster is a convertible, but others have reported that A/C draws much less energy than heating, and unless you are in West Texas should not cut more than 5% off the range at the very most, and probably more like 3%.

The touch-screen interface:

In my opinion, it was a big mistake to put so much of the car's functionality on the screen. I do find that the speedometer, at the top left of the screen, is easy to see. I expected that to be an issue, but it's not. However, some of the other controls would have been much better as physical controls. I do not like the minimalist design. This was a bad choice. A slight mitigation is that the car has two controls on the steering wheel, each of which can be scrolled up or down, or pressed right, left, or inward. The left one is dedicated to the sound system, but the right one has only one function assigned to it, pressing it opens Voice Commands. A lot of folks feel that cruise-control functions should be on that, and Tesla is listening, and thinking of changes. The car's firmware can be updated over the air (I've had one firmware update already) and many functions will be improved as time goes along.

Now for my own experiences:

The car is much more comfortable to sit in and drive than my Prius. I've never driven anything nicer. But I've never owned a luxury car. I'd expect a $55K gas car to be nicer inside because the money that goes into batteries in a Tesla can go into other features in a stinker. I'm very happy with the feel and comfort of the Model 3.

Traffic-aware cruise control (TACC) and enhanced autopilot (EAP) are a bit of a disappointment to me, though they should get better with future firmware updates. And these features are the main reason I got the car, along with its 5-star safety rating in every category. TACC allows you to set a speed, and if traffic is moving slower, it follows the speed of traffic rather than making you constantly change the speed yourself. TACC works. But it cannot anticipate the flow of traffic as I can myself, so the speed changes are not as smooth as when I'm driving. I will slow down more gradually when I see slower cars up ahead. TACC waits longer and then slows down more abruptly. And TACC speeds up more gradually, whereas I can follow the speed of traffic more smoothly. However, in its defense, TACC is intended for highway use, not city use, and it's in city stop-and-go traffic where TACC's shortcomings are most noticeable. In the city, I use TACC as I'd use plain C/C in the Prius, engaging it on major thoroughfares, and disengaging it when there's a stoplight ahead.

I've only used EAP once so far. It's only for use on highways with well-marked lanes. It works, but unsurprisingly, it feels like someone else is driving the car. I get motion-sick very easily, including when riding in a car that someone else is driving. So I didn't like EAP a lot on my first try. However, I will try it out again a few times before I decide that i should not have paid the $5K for the feature. And this is something that will almost certainly improve with future updates.

NOTE: EAP is absolutely NOT FSD. This is not a self-driving car. You must keep your hands on the wheel and your eyes on the road. It's a driver-assist feature which is intended to make driving less tiring.

For me, personally, as a fanatical gas-hater, the best thing about the Model 3 is that I will be able to make my annual driving trip for hiking in Canada on electric. The Roadster didn't have the range or the cargo space for it. With 65 more miles of range, and plenty of cargo space, and the supercharger in Kelowna, BC, the trip will take me an hour longer than it did in the Prius, but I won't have to burn any gas at all, and I'll be able to sell the Prius.

The Model 3 is a work in progress. There are some very poor design choices (IMO) but overall it's a really nice car, smaller than the humongous Model S, with fewer features, but the same basic electric drive train and all the benefits and drawbacks of electric cars. It will get better as the software is improved. It will not be right for everyone, but is an excellent choice if it fits in your budget, 310 miles of range is adequate for you, and you'd prefer to be driving electric than fossil fuel.

The U.S. electric grid is cleaner than gas cars, and is getting cleaner all the time. And while a gas car always needs gas, an electric car can be operated on clean wind, solar, or hydro.

I don't have time to proofread this long post now. Apologies for the inevitable typos.

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Daniel----------------"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."-- Otto von Bismarck

When you use the EAP but have to keep your hands on the wheel, is it weird when the steering wheel turns itself? Do you want to fight it? I imagine trying to keep my hands on the wheel without messing with the EAP and it sounds like it would be more difficult than actually driving. How much force do you need to put on the steering will for EAP to disengage?

Is charging your car using the US electric grid really much cleaner than driving a stinker?

How much does your electric bill go up? Is it more, less, or about the same as it would have cost you for gas in a stinker?

Thanks for posting this, you troll.

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Quote from: Steven Novella

gleefully altering one’s beliefs to accommodate new information should be a badge of honor

I imagine trying to keep my hands on the wheel without messing with the EAP and it sounds like it would be more difficult than actually driving. How much force do you need to put on the steering will for EAP to disengage?

Quite a lot, actually. But it's not difficult at all. Just a lot more than you would normally apply, so you don't accidentally disengage it.

Is charging your car using the US electric grid really much cleaner than driving a stinker?

Yes, because of the difference in efficiency. Large-scale power plants are so much more efficient than small internal-combustion engines that they pollute less per mile driven. And many of the U.S. power plants are natural gas, which is a lot cleaner than coal. And every year more clean energy is being added to the grid. Also nuclear, for all its very real problems and risks, is carbon-free.

How much does your electric bill go up? Is it more, less, or about the same as it would have cost you for gas in a stinker?

WA has very cheap electricity due to hydro. When I started driving electric, circa 2007 with the Zap Xebra, I was paying 6¢/kWh and getting about 3 miles per kWh, so I paid 2¢ per mile for the electricity. The Roadster is heavier but more efficient than the Xebra, and the Model 3 I think is heavier than the Roadster, but again, more efficient. So I figure I still get 3 miles per kWh at the electric meter. Measured at the car's battery, I am getting 236 Wh/mile. But probably still 3 miles/kWh at the meter. I don't drive a lot of miles. Maybe 4,000/year, half of that being the long drive up to Canada in the summer, which has been gasoline (in the Prius) up until now but will be electric this summer.

But our electric rates went up and I think it's around 7¢/kWh now.

If you drive 15,000 miles a year in WA, you'd spend about $350/year for the electricity. A quick Google inquiry puts CA electric rates at 18¢/kWh average. That would be 6¢/mile for the electricity. My Prius gets 50 mpg on the highway. Google says gasoline in CA is $2.50/gallon. So a Prius in CA would spend 5¢/mile. So in CA a Prius would be slightly cheaper than an EV. Pretty much any other car would cost more, and the Model 3 is a much nicer car to drive than a Prius. And the EV could be a LOT cheaper if you have time-of-day rates, or better yet, solar panels on your home.

For road trips, the electricity at charge spots would likely be more than domestic rates. On Maui, electricity is very expensive, at 31.5¢/kWh. But there's tons of sun for home solar power.

A little off the topic of the Model 3, but related: Having waffled a bit, I've finally decided that I like the Model 3 enough that I've put my Roadster up for sale. I don't need the extra car, and I don't need two cars, and though the Roadster is quicker and more sporty, the Model 3 is still surprisingly quick and sporty. Zero to 60 mph in 5.1 seconds. (The base model, not yet available, will be 6 seconds.) And very sporty handling. But what has seduced me is the comfort. I've never owned such a comfortable car. I'm an old man and it's time to quit having to contort myself to get in and out of my car, and time for a generally safer car. (Five stars in every safety category.) I wish it was smaller, but I can live with the size.

So after nearly 7 years driving the Roadster, if I can find a buyer I will be selling it. (Anyone reading this who wants to come to Spokane is welcome to check it out.)

On the down side, it has some kind of streaming audio (via satellite, maybe, or over the cell service? I don't know) and there's a baroque channel, but instead of playing any whole piece all the way through, it plays single isolated movements apparently at random. I want to hear the whole piece.

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Daniel----------------"Anyone who has ever looked into the glazed eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think long and hard before starting a war."-- Otto von Bismarck

Did anyone see this? I can't paste and post from the article but basically it is saying that Tesla is just cranking out production and fixing stuff afterwards. Going back to the way Detroit did things in the 60s and 70s until Toyota revolutionis the industry.

Was thinking just yesterday, as I was behind a pickup with the name CHEVROLET in big letters, what an unusual name that is for an American meat and potatoes car company, and how that name was cheapened by avoidable actions taken by GM in the era you mention (and beyond). Couldn't bring myself to buy one today, maybe one day I'll drive a Chevrolet.

Did anyone see this? I can't paste and post from the article but basically it is saying that Tesla is just cranking out production and fixing stuff afterwards. Going back to the way Detroit did things in the 60s and 70s until Toyota revolutionis the industry.

Was thinking just yesterday, as I was behind a pickup with the name CHEVROLET in big letters, what an unusual name that is for an American meat and potatoes car company, and how that name was cheapened by avoidable actions taken by GM in the era you mention (and beyond). Couldn't bring myself to buy one today, maybe one day I'll drive a Chevrolet.

Wow, I think the article is a bit of a hatchet job. In seven years with the Roadster I had one serious problem (a shift button failed and had to be replaced before the car was drivable again) and 2 or 3 minor problems that didn't prevent driving and were fixed in a timely manner. Toyota and Honda have achieved remarkable production quality and Tesla is not there yet (neither is any other American carmaker) but most of the "complaints" from new Model 3 buyers are about "fit and finish": gaps here and there, places where parts don't come together perfectly, and Tesla is fixing those. And the vast majority don't have any problems at all. There have been a couple of cases where the 12V battery died and owners could not get in to the car (there is a way, but it is awkward and requires a 12V source) and Tesla has taken those cases very seriously, studying them to determine the cause and making sure it does not happen in other cars.

The one thing the article gets right is that Tesla has never been able to meet a deadline. Elon Musk is a terrible chrono-optimist. He thinks thinks can be done much more quickly than they can. If you add a couple of years to his estimates regarding cars, you'll be about right. (And add about 50 years to his estimate for a Mars colony. )

Elon Musk is a guy a lot of people either love or hate. You love him for making electric cars acceptable to the public, or you hate him for building a car that shows the way to carbon-free driving. He's none of the extremes. He's a capable entrepreneur and a visionary and a fallible human being. He's not a scam artist and he's not the savior of the world. But in my view he's doing good things. The Model 3 is almost more computer than car, and as such it took me a while to really get used to mine. IMO we need to move away from gas cars, and Tesla is the leader in electric cars. The early Model 3 have not been universally perfect. But it's an amazing car and the vast majority have had no problems at all.

e, it has some kind of streaming audio (via satellite, maybe, or over the cell service? I don't know) and there's a baroque channel, but instead of playing any whole piece all the way through, it plays single isolated movements apparently at random. I want to hear the whole piece.

The music is streaming over LTE cellular data, using the much maligned Slacker platform in the US. Europe has Spotify. You also have TuneIn internet radio which has a bunch of streams from regular terrestrial stations along with podcasts (including SGU). There is no satellite radio on the Model 3 (nor AM).

Just got my Model 3 last Friday. Very nice. I thought I'd hate Slacker, and continue to rely on streaming from my phone, but it's been OK.

I have been spending some time in a Tesla X for work, I cant say much about it other than it has been difficult to get the screen to do what I want. I found a workaround but its not ideal. Once the Film comes out I can talk more about what we did.

All that said its a sweet ride. I wish I could afford one.

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“Don't explain computers to laymen. Simpler to explain sex to a virgin.” ― Robert A. Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress