Global padlocks, locks and keys market amounted to 14M tonnes in 2016. According to IndexBox estimates, after a sharp drop in 2009, it recovered in the next year and then underwent moderate, but robust growth through 2016, accelerating slightly by the end of the period.

In wholesale prices, global padlocks, locks and keys market reached $94.5B in 2016, fluctuating somewhat notably over the last ten years. This figure reflects total revenue of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). After a deep plunge in 2009, it had been recovering over the next two years, and then leveled off through 2016 with mild fluctuations.

Global Padlocks, Locks and Keys Market Is to Continue Its Measured Upward Trend

The main areas of padlocks, locks and keys application are construction, furniture manufacturing, transportation packaging manufacturing as well as automotive industry. Therefore, the demand for these products remains stable, amid the growth of the world economy and downstream industries in the key consumer countries.

China is a key producer and consumer of padlocks, locks and keys; it is also the world's largest exporter of padlocks, locks and keys, which will support further production growth. Although China's economic growth has slowed down against the backdrop of economic restructuring, it still remains one of the most robust in the world and will support demand for locks and fittings.

The U.S. is the world's second-largest market for padlocks, locks and keys. In the U.S., key downstream industries, such as construction and the automotive manufacturing, are experiencing favourable trends amid general economic recovery, strong employment and credit availability.

Driven by the stable demand from downstream industries worldwide amid improving global economy growth, the padlocks, locks and keys sector as a whole is projected to continue a measured upward consumption trend over the next nine years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2016 to 2025, which is expected to bring the market volume to 14.7M tonnes by 2025.

China Dominates Global Manufacturing of Padlocks, Locks and Keys

In 2016, production of padlocks, locks and keys stood at 14.0M tonnes. Global production of padlocks, locks and keys increased steadily from 2007-2016, rising by +0.8% per year over the period under review.

In 2016, China (10.8M tonnes) was the largest and main padlocks, locks and keys producing country, responsible for 77% of total output. The share of all other countries was 16.6%: the U.S. (6%), Germany (5%), Italy (2%), Austria (2%), Brazil (1%), and France (0.6%).

Austria (+4.5%), China (+1.1%), and the U.S. (+1.0%) had the highest growth rate in padlocks, locks and keys production among leading producing countries.

In addition, the share of China increased from 75% in 2007 to 77% in 2016. Meanwhile, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analysed period.

Approx. 41% of Global Output of Padlocks, Locks and Keys Are Intended for Exports

Padlocks, locks and keys is a widely traded commodity, with the share of exports in total global output being about 41% in 2007-2016. High trade intensity is determined mainly by the substantial distances between the main countries of padlocks, locks and keys manufacturing and key consuming countries.

Padlocks, locks and keys will continue to be highly traded, fuelled by increasing consumption, intense global and regional integration. However, the trade expansion could be restrained by softening growth of padlocks, locks and keys manufacturing and increasing domestic demand in some of the major exporting countries. A possible revision of the NAFTA free trade agreement, announced by the U.S. authorities is a serious risk factor. These measures will damage not only the U.S. but also neighbouring Mexico, which in recent years has significantly increased the consumption of locks and fittings, which are used in the products exported to the U.S.

China Leads Global Padlocks, Locks and Keys Exports

In 2016, the volume of global exports totalled 5.7M tonnes, increasing gradually by an average +1.7% per year from 2007-2016; however, some noticeable fluctuations occurred in certain years. In value terms, it amounted to $38.6B in 2016; the trend pattern generally mirrored that of the volume of imports, but the growth was even more pronounced due to an increase in prices.

China ranks first in terms of global padlocks, locks and keys exports with a share of 38% of the total exports (in physical terms). In 2016, China exported 2,190K tonnes of padlocks, locks and keys. Besides China, the largest global suppliers in 2016, all lagging somewhat behind in terms of the volume of exports, were Germany (590K tonnes), Austria (355K tonnes), the U.S. (328K tonnes), Italy (204K tonnes), Mexico (173K tonnes), and Poland (139K tonnes); together they comprised another 32% of global exports. Poland and Austria were the fastest growing suppliers from 2007 to 2016, with the volume of exports expanding at an average annual rate of +4.8% per year and +4.2% per year, respectively, from 2007-2016.

The shares of Germany and Italy contracted by the same -2 percentage points, while, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analysed period.

The U.S. Remains the Largest Importer of Padlocks, Locks and Keys

The volume of global imports totalled 5.8M tonnes in 2016, which equated to $38.6B. A trend pattern of imports generally mirrored that of exports: these trade flows globally complement each other.

In 2016, the U.S. (868K tonnes), Germany (440K tonnes), Mexico (354K tonnes), Poland (256K tonnes), the UK (239K tonnes), Russia (193K tonnes) and Canada (170K tonnes) constituted the leading destinations of padlocks, locks and keys imports, together comprising 44% of global imports. Amongst the major importing countries, Poland (+4.5% per year) and Mexico (+3.6% per year) gained the highest annual growth rates from 2007 to 2016. The share of the U.S. (-2 percentage points) decreased over the period under review. Meanwhile, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analysed period.

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