Antony Green's Analysis

The key feature of the NSW distribution of preferences is the way that Liberals For Forests and the Christian Democrats harvest preferences throughout the count, choking off the flow of preferences to the Greens. This prevents the Greens from passing the Labor vote at the end of the count, resulting in Labor winning the final vacancy on Green preferences. The most important preferences were those of the Australian Democrats. Had Democrat preferences flown to the Greens rather than Liberals for Forests and the Christian Democrats, then the final vacancy would have been won by the Greens' John Kaye. Instead, Labor's Michael Foreshaw won the sixth and final vacancy, the state splitting 3 Coalition, 3 Labor, the National Party's Fiona Nash winning a seat previously held by the Australian Democrats' Aden Ridgeway.

Counts

At Count 1

Total Primary Votes by Group

Comments: On primary votes, the Coalition win three seats and Labor two, with what looks like a tight tussle between Labor and the Greens for the final vacancy. However, the preference deals in NSW were labyrinthine, and as the count unfolds, Glen Druery of Liberals for Forests makes a dramatic rise from a lowly tenth ranking at the start of the count.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Liberal/National Party

0

1,748,676

3.0797

Australian Labor Party

0

1,445,024

2.5449

The Greens

0

291,884

0.5141

Christian Democratic Party

0

103,763

0.1827

Australian Democrats

0

87,377

0.1539

One Nation

0

76,023

0.1339

H.E.M.P.

0

24,022

0.0423

Family First

0

22,218

0.0391

The Fishing Party

0

21,324

0.0376

liberals for forests

0

21,185

0.0373

Lower Excise Party

0

19,157

0.0337

Outdoor Recreation Party

0

13,822

0.0243

Group A Independents

0

13,635

0.0240

Progressive Labour Party

0

13,179

0.0232

Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party

0

12,920

0.0228

Australians Against Further Immigration

0

11,477

0.0202

No GST

0

9,714

0.0171

Group K Independents

0

7,041

0.0124

New Country Party

0

6,218

0.0110

The Great Australians

0

4,699

0.0083

Socialist Alliance

0

4,295

0.0076

Save the ADI Site Party

0

3,278

0.0058

Non-Custodial Parents Party

0

2,932

0.0052

Australian Progressive Alliance

0

2,764

0.0049

Citizens Electoral Council

0

2,478

0.0044

Nuclear Disarmament

0

2,168

0.0038

Group D Independents

0

1,638

0.0029

Ungrouped Candidates

0

1,082

0.0019

Group W Independents

0

559

0.0010

Group W Independents

0

116

0.0002

At End of Count 177

Election of 3 Liberal/National candidate, two Labor candidates, and the exclusion of numerous candidates

506 ticket votes originally from Group W Independents distributed by preference 3 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST). 53 below the line preferences also distributed.

1,393 ticket votes originally from Group D Independents distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests). 245 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,014 ticket votes originally from Nuclear Disarmament distributed by preference 3 to KAYE John (The Greens). 154 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,304 ticket votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed by preference 3 to HOWLETT Bruce (Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party). 174 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,539 ticket votes originally from Australian Progressive Alliance distributed by preference 3 to RIDGEWAY Aden (Australian Democrats). 225 below the line preferences also distributed.

1,082 below the line preferences for Ungrouped candidate distributed.

116 below the line preferences for Group U distributed.

Comments: By this count, only one candidate remains in each of 23 groups. Groups excluded so far include five groups with ticket votes along with one group and the ungrouped column with no ticket votes.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

-560

308,844

0.5439

The Greens

+2,307

294,191

0.5181

Christian Democratic Party

+178

103,941

0.1831

Australian Democrats

+3,098

90,475

0.1593

One Nation

+236

76,259

0.1343

Liberal/National Party

-439

44,807

0.0789

H.E.M.P.

+75

24,097

0.0424

liberals for forests

+1,498

22,683

0.0399

Family First

+200

22,418

0.0395

The Fishing Party

+225

21,549

0.0380

Lower Excise Party

+63

19,220

0.0338

Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party

+2,356

15,276

0.0269

Outdoor Recreation Party

+73

13,895

0.0245

Group A Independents

+151

13,786

0.0243

Progressive Labour Party

+35

13,214

0.0233

Australians Against Further Immigration

+65

11,542

0.0203

No GST

+639

10,353

0.0182

Group K Independents

+88

7,129

0.0126

New Country Party

+56

6,274

0.0110

The Great Australians

+42

4,741

0.0083

Socialist Alliance

+89

4,384

0.0077

Save the ADI Site Party

+41

3,319

0.0058

Non-Custodial Parents Party

+53

2,985

0.0053

At End of Count 201

2,636 ticket votes originally from Non-Custodial Parents Party distributed by preference 3 to BROWN Geoff (Save the ADI Site Party) and then by preference 5 to HOWLETT Bruce (Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party). 349 below the line preferences also distributed.

3,697 ticket votes originally from Socialist Alliance distributed by preference 3 to KAYE John (The Greens). 687 below the line preferences also distributed.

4,563 ticket votes originally from The Great Australians distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests). 178 below the line preferences also distributed.

2,907 ticket votes originally from Save the ADI Site Party distributed by preference 3 to KAYE John (The Greens). 412 below the line preferences also distributed.

At End of Count 223

5,941 ticket votes originally from New Country Party distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests). 370 below the line preferences also distributed.

6,989 ticket votes originally from Group K Independents distributed by preference 7 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST). 158 below the line preferences also distributed.

10,735 ticket votes originally from Australians Against Further Immigration distributed by preference 5 to GALLAGHER Mick (No GST). 871 below the line preferences also distributed.

13,011 ticket votes originally from Progressive Labour Party distributed by preference 3 to BALDERSTONE Michael Taylor (H.E.M.P.). 257 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: By this stage of the count, preference deals are having an important impact. Candidates like Glen Druery from Liberals for Forests and Mick Gallagher from No GST have engaged in complex preference deals and are passing candidates that did not arrange preference swaps with other small parties. In particular, No GST has risen from 17th position at the start of the count to 9th.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+106

309,089

0.5444

The Greens

+207

301,543

0.5311

Christian Democratic Party

+79

104,060

0.1833

Australian Democrats

+146

90,752

0.1598

One Nation

+286

76,622

0.1349

Liberal/National Party

+127

44,993

0.0792

H.E.M.P.

+13,083

37,292

0.0657

liberals for forests

+5,991

33,261

0.0586

No GST

+17,783

28,186

0.0496

Family First

+53

22,533

0.0397

The Fishing Party

+49

21,634

0.0381

Lower Excise Party

+147

19,415

0.0342

Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party

+77

18,055

0.0318

Outdoor Recreation Party

+34

13,955

0.0246

Group A Independents

+134

13,944

0.0246

At End of Count 247

Successive exclusion of ETTRIDGE David (Group A Independents), BELGRAVE Leon A (Outdoor Recreation Party), HOWLETT Bruce (Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party) and SMITH Robert (The Fishing Party)

11,754 ticket votes originally from Group A Independents distributed by preference 5 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

13,098 ticket votes originally from Outdoor Recreation Party distributed by preference 3 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

12,156 ticket votes originally from Ex-Service Service and Veterans Party distributed by preference 4 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

20,604 ticket votes originally from The Fishing Party distributed by preference 7 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

5,036 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: The full extent of Liberals for Forests prefence deals are revealed by these four exclusions. Deals now push the party ahead of One Nation and leave the party trailing the Australian Democrats by just 4,000 votes. So far Liberals for Forests has more than quardupled its vote.

At End of Count 253

2,636 ticket votes originally from Non-Custodial Parents Party distributed by preference 20 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

1,295 below the preferences also distributed

Comments: No GST and Liberals for Forests continue to harvest preferences.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+89

309,535

0.5451

The Greens

+118

301,876

0.5316

Christian Democratic Party

+48

104,418

0.1839

Australian Democrats

+89

94,187

0.1659

liberals for forests

+2,749

93,697

0.1650

One Nation

+126

77,857

0.1371

No GST

+18,652

47,383

0.0834

Liberal/National Party

+132

45,713

0.0805

H.E.M.P.

+265

37,696

0.0664

Family First

+106

22,861

0.0403

At End of Count 259

WOODS Joan (Family First) excluded

20,692 ticket votes originally from Family First distributed by preference 3 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party). 2,169 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: Unlike other states, Family First did not do well with preferences. Most preferences flowing to Family First had first been caputerd by Liberals for Forests. So having received few preferences by this stage, Family First are excluded, their preferences flowing to the Christian Democrats.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+130

309,665

0.5454

The Greens

+150

302,026

0.5319

Christian Democratic Party

+21,694

126,112

0.2221

Australian Democrats

+146

94,333

0.1661

liberals for forests

+76

93,773

0.1651

One Nation

+132

77,989

0.1374

No GST

+246

47,629

0.0839

Liberal/National Party

+216

45,929

0.0809

H.E.M.P.

+64

37,760

0.0665

At End of Count 265

BALDERSTONE Michael Taylor (H.E.M.P.) excluded

22,548 ticket votes originally from H.E.M.P. distributed by preference 8 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

13,011 ticket votes originally from Progressive Labour Party distributed by preference 11 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,201 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: The persuasive powers of Glenn Druery in preference negotions were further revealed at this count. Liberals for Forests gained the preferences of two leftish parties in the Progressive Labour Party and H.E.M.P. When Druery is eventually excluded, these preferences flow to the Greens, but the Greens would rather have received the preferences earlier in the count.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+257

309,922

0.5458

The Greens

+805

302,831

0.5333

liberals for forests

+35,757

129,530

0.2281

Christian Democratic Party

+34

126,146

0.2222

Australian Democrats

+224

94,557

0.1665

One Nation

+191

78,180

0.1377

No GST

+310

47,939

0.0844

Liberal/National Party

+160

46,089

0.0812

At End of Count 271

TIERNEY John (Liberal/National Party) excluded

41,780 ticket votes originally from Liberal/National Party distributed by preference 7 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party). Around 4,309 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: The exclusion of the fourth Coalition candidate at this count helps the cause of the Christian Democrats. However, the combined Labor and Green vote exceeds a quota. The Greens preferences flow straight to Labor, while Labor's preferences to the Greens flow by complex means after first passing through Liberals for Forests and partly though the Christian Democrats. As long as Labor stays ahead of the Greens, the only outcome now possible is a Labor victory. If Labor falls behind the Greens, Labor preferences would not necessarily flow to the Greens, though victory by anyone else would depend on who remained in the count.

At End of Count 277

18,459 ticket votes originally from Lower Excise Party distributed by preference 9 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

10,735 ticket votes originally from Australians Against Further Immigration distributed by preference 7 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

506 ticket votes originally from Group W Independents distributed by preference 9 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

9,307 ticket votes originally from No GST distributed by preference 9 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,158 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: After a dramatic rise in the count, Mick Gallagher of No GST is finally excluded, most of the vote currently residing with him now flowing to Liberals for Forests. Liberals for Forests now pass both the Christian Democrats and the Australian Democrats.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+245

310,614

0.5470

The Greens

+445

303,461

0.5344

liberals for forests

+39,310

169,676

0.2988

Christian Democratic Party

+402

169,110

0.2978

Australian Democrats

+7,270

102,694

0.1809

One Nation

+441

79,518

0.1400

At End of Count 283

NEWSON Judith (One Nation) excluded

72,306 ticket votes originally from One Nation distributed by preference 18 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party). 7,212 below the line preferences also distributed.

Comments: As has become the norm, no other parties chose to direct preferences to One Nation. The party is now excluding, its preferences flowing to the Christian Democrats.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+1,387

312,001

0.5495

The Greens

+649

304,110

0.5356

Christian Democratic Party

+74,410

243,520

0.4289

liberals for forests

+1,322

170,998

0.3012

Australian Democrats

+1,546

104,240

0.1836

At End of Count 289

RIDGEWAY Aden (Australian Democrats) excluded

74,428 ticket votes originally from Australian Democrats distributed by preference 11 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,539 ticket votes originally from Australian Progressive Alliance distributed by preference 6 to DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests)

2,304 ticket votes originally from Citizens Electoral Council distributed by preference 9 to KAYE John (The Greens)

17,980 below the line preferences also distributed

Comments: Critical to the final outcome at this point is the fact the Democrat preferences do not flow to the Greens. Instead, Democrat preferences flowed to Liberals for Forests at this count and the Christian Democrats at the next count. This prevented the Greens from closing the gap on Labor. Note that Liberals for Forests had attracted very few below the line votes during the count. As a result, at this stage the Christian Democrats had a small lead over Liberals for Forests, resulting in Glenn Druery's exclusion at the next count. Note that even if the Christian Democrats had been excluded at this count, Labor would still have won the final vacancy. The crucial point in determining the final vacancy in NSW was the ability of Labor to keep its lead over the Greens.

New Totals

Party Name

Transfer

New Total

New Quota

Australian Labor Party

+6,314

318,315

0.5606

The Greens

+10,087

314,197

0.5533

Christian Democratic Party

+8,539

252,059

0.4439

liberals for forests

+78,988

249,986

0.4403

At End of Count 295

DRUERY Glenn (liberals for forests) excluded

11,754 Votes originally from Group A Independents distributed by preference 52 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

74,428 Votes originally from Australian Democrats distributed by preference 25 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

5,941 Votes originally from New Country Party distributed by preference 43 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

9,307 Votes originally from No GST distributed by preference 50 to NILE Fred (Christian Democratic Party)

20,604 Votes originally from The Fishing Party distributed by preference 66 to FORSHAW Michael (Australian Labor Party)

5,151 below the line preferences also distributed

Comments: The scale of Glenn Druery's preference deals are revealed by the large number of ticket votes distributed at this count. Crucially, the Democrat ticket votes now flowed to the Christian Democrats, which left the Labor total ahead of the Greens. Despite this count putting the Christian Democrats into first place, it is the fact that the Greens remain in third place which determines the final vacancy.