Jaroslaw Kaczynski (R), leader of the conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) and Beata Szydlo, candidate for prime minister celebrate with supporters at the party's headquarters in Warsaw after exit poll results | Getty

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Don’t be scared of Poland

There is change in Warsaw, but fears of a radical shake-up are overblown.

WARSAW — The Law and Justice Party (PiS) overwhelmingly won this weekend’s parliamentary election in Poland. It’s now official that PiS will be the first party to have an absolute majority in Poland since 1989. This will have important consequences for Poland’s security and defense policy, Poland’s strategy within the EU, and Poland’s relations with neighbors, and key allies including U.S. or Germany.

The initial alarmist reactions of some Western press to PiS victory are exaggerated. The new government is not going to marginalize Poland within the EU or start an unnecessary fight with Germany or other allies. Western observers would do best to take a deep breath, focus on the content of the new foreign policy, and pay attention to the personalities in the emerging government, especially the foreign minister and the minister of defense once named, who will communicate the tone of the new government to partners and allies.

* * *

There will be a significant degree of continuation between PiS and the previous Civic Platform (PO) governments. The new government, like its predecessors, will focus acutely on the issue of security policy — especially in the run up to the NATO summit in Warsaw next year. The key measure of success will be whether the Alliance is able to credibly deter threats, regardless of where they come from. This would be done not through Ramstein-size permanent NATO bases, but a greater forward presence of the Alliance, and an ability to make quick decisions and effective reinforcements in case of trouble. The key to delivering this outcome will be Poland’s productive relations with the U.S. and Germany.

The PiS government will seek even deeper, strategic relations with the U.S. There will be a great hope in Warsaw that Washington will show more leadership within NATO on dealing with threats both from the East and the South, and will deliver on the promises of prepositioning military equipment near the eastern border of the Alliance, increasing the U.S. presence on the Alliance’s flanks. One of the leading candidates for the post of minister of foreign affairs, Witold Waszczykowski, said: “U.S. military presence is welcomed and necessary, and has to be sufficiently large to deter a possible aggressor.”

Washington would do well to listen to the perspective and arguments of the new government.

The new defense minister will also continue, and possibly speed up, Poland’s military modernization program. The minister of defense will look to the U.S. for big defense contracts in order to strengthen the strategic ties between countries, but also to ensure greater transfer of technology to the Polish defense industry.

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Then there’s Germany. Poland’s relations with its powerful neighbor are deep and multifaceted. There are issues that have been challenging for a long time — most saliently security, climate, and migration policies. Those will now require extra attention and openness to compromise from both sides. On security, the question is whether a compromise can be found between Poland’s need for reinforcement and deterrence on NATO’s flank, and Germany’s wish to avoid escalating tensions and to keep channels of communication open with Russia. There won’t be any desire in Warsaw for a gratuitous fight with Germany. The new government will aim to continue productive relations, while seeking more parity and balance. It will require flexibility in both Berlin and Warsaw to keep the relations friendly and pragmatic.

The new government will seek to find its core powerbase in the neighborhood — the Baltic region, the Visegrad Four group, and Romania — rather than in close alliances with Western European powers. The first test of this policy will come as soon as November 4 during the meeting of NATO’s Eastern flank in Bucharest — even though the Polish delegation will be led by President Duda, rather than the new minister of foreign affairs. The goal of the meeting is to leverage the strength and unity of the region’s voice for greater weight in the debate in the Alliance as a whole. This new format, if successful, will be picked up by the new government as a modus operandi within NATO and the EU.

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In the EU, PiS will place a lower premium on staying within the European mainstream. The government is likely to define Poland’s national interest with greater emphasis on domestic interest and politics, and to defend it vigorously in Brussels.

Two issues that could be particularly challenging for European partners are climate policy and the refugees crisis. The new government is unlikely to be able to easily compromise here, given the publicly stated position on refugees, and the importance of the coal industry in Poland. The new government is likely to form a coalition with the other Visegrad countries against the compulsory refugee quotas, and will in turn focus on tightening external borders of the EU.

Poland’s tone in EU affairs might be different from the expectations of many observers who worry about the Euroskepticism of the new team. EU affairs will be separated out from the ministry of foreign affairs into a separate ministry, most likely to be headed by a lower-key politician with a good understanding of Brussels. It is here that the difference between the PO-led foreign policy and the new government will be most significant.

The change of government in Poland is happening at a moment of particular vulnerability within the EU, because of the migration and euro crises, and a time when NATO is under threat both from the East and the South. At no other time since 1989 have the two pillars of Poland’s foreign and security policy been under such strain.

The refugee crisis, especially, is threatening to undermine the EU’s solidarity and cohesion. The new PiS government will face a difficult test of navigating the multiple crises while trying to adjust Poland’s relations within the region, the EU, and the transatlantic alliance. Both the content and the tone of Poland’s foreign policy will have to be calibrated very carefully in order not to create a split within the EU or NATO.

Over the past decade, Poland has proven itself a key EU member state, and an able partner for Germany and the U.S. The tone projected by the new government will be crucial to maintain this position, but the Western partners would make a wise investment if they extended the benefit of the doubt to the new team in Warsaw.

Michal Baranowski is director of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the United States.

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Knight bis

Thucydides

It is to be hoped that the influence of Poland on EU policy will grow, as the Polish voice is often a voice of reason and realism.

Posted on 10/27/15 | 4:57 PM CEST

Thucydides

Hopefully, the influence of Poland on EU policy will grow, as the Polish voice is often a voice of reason and realism.

Posted on 10/27/15 | 4:59 PM CEST

Mike

Immigrants are not wanted or needed in Poland.

Posted on 10/27/15 | 6:43 PM CEST

Chaz

Go Poland!

Posted on 10/27/15 | 11:43 PM CEST

Veritas

The grand plan to repair/overhaul Rzeczpospolita is starting to take shape. Although, it took one generation to get to the starting line! And, the new generation made the difference. With complete control of the government, PiS must move quickly now to make up lost time.

Posted on 10/28/15 | 12:36 AM CEST

Polish guy

..”You Will Know the Truth and the Truth Will Set You Free”..John 8:31-32 ESV
Since 1939 We Proud Polish People are denied the TRUTH
Since yesterday We have our Government and President our choice.Government & President We Trust
We have been waiting for this moment 76 Years…
So Truth..First of all We wont to know what really happen over Smolensk Russian Sky in 2010 when President and whole country elite,Political,Economical,Military vanished..
Second..We wont to know the Truth and names of the traitors who were the Soviet and Germans agents since 1939 until 2005 investigated by Parliamentary commission in Macierewicz Rapport ..

Polish guy

re:Ron Mlejnek.
Of course.Most of the people in Poland speak English,German,French,Italian,Russian.
Polish Language is understand by Ukrainian,Slovak,Czech,Serbian,Croats,Russian

Posted on 10/28/15 | 1:12 AM CEST

Polish guy

One of many who shaped our soul.
Polish Jew Julian Tuwim
…”When plastered billboards scream with slogans
‘fight for your country, go to battle’
When media’s print assaults your senses,
‘Support our leaders’ shrieks and rattles…
And fools who don’t know any better
Believe the old, eternal lie
That we must march and shoot and kill
Murder, and burn, and bomb, and grill…

When press begins the battle-cry
That nation needs to unify
And for your country you must die…
Dear brainwashed friend, my neighbor dear
Brother from this, or other nation
Know that the cries of anger, fear,
Are nothing but manipulation
by fat-cats, kings who covet riches,
And feed off your sweat and blood – the leeches!
When call to arms engulfs the land
It means that somewhere oil was found,
Shooting ‘blackgold’ from underground!
It means they found a sneaky way
To make more money, grab more gold
But this is not what you are told!

Don’t spill your blood for bucks or oil
Break, burn your rifle, shout: ‘NO DEAL!’
Let the rich scoundrels, kings, and bankers
Send their own children to get killed!
May your loud voice be amplified
By roar of other common men
The battle-weary of all nations:
WE WON’T BE CONNED TO WAR AGAIN! …
…

Posted on 10/28/15 | 1:37 AM CEST

Ewa Wierzynska

I hope Mr. Baranowski is right. Poland is not lost and it is time to stop wailing and go back to work.

Posted on 10/28/15 | 7:45 AM CEST

anna visser

Thanks for this article. Very welcome in a time where voices are so loud that is seems if only those voices count instead of down to earth thinking.

Posted on 10/28/15 | 9:16 AM CEST

Steve

Boring and vapid waffle. “Don’t worry Eurocrats and other international elitists, Poland will not upset your gravy-train for you”. If the Poles have any sense left they will get the hell out of the EUSSR evil empire of ethno-cultural genocide, class-crushing chaos, and Islamization-invasion while they can. If they stay in the EU then the next traitor government that is installed with outside support will smash Polish independence and identity once and for all. Same goes for the rest of the V4 and other east European nations, whose best bet is to form their own separate bloc free of Brussels-Berlin dictates forever.