THR's awards expert Scott Feinberg offers his latest take on the Oscar race.

What follows is my latest assessment of all of the high-profile Oscar categories, along with commentary about the latest developments in each. I welcome your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post.

►Last week's three major nominations announcements -- from the BFCA, SAG, and the HFPA -- solidified the standing of The Artist as this year's clear frontrunner for the best picture Oscar. The black-and-white silent movie led the BFCA field with 11 nods (Hugo had the same), including best picture; garnered a second-best three nods from SAG (behind only The Help's four), including best ensemble, which many SAG members treat as their best picture category; and topped the HFPA's charts with six nods (including best picture [musical or comedy]). Meanwhile, several other films that had faded from the discussion were reinjected into it by the various announcements: The Ides of March rebounded with a BFCA best ensemble nod and a Golden Globe nod for best picture (musical or comedy); Bridesmaids surged into the discussion with BFCA and SAG best ensemble nods, a best picture (musical or comedy) nod from the HFPA, a spot on the AFI's list of the year's top 10 films, and a ton of individual love for its stars; and both Drive and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close did well with the BFCA (eight nods and four nods, respectively, including best picture), if not with the other two groups. Snubbed in the top categories of all three -- and therefore on best picture Oscar life-support -- were The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Shame, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Margin Call, Beginners, and The Iron Lady, among others.

►For obvious reasons, SAG does not have a category recognizing directors, but the BFCA and HPFA do, and they, notably, agreed on three: Hazanavicius, Scorsese, and Payne. The BFCA also nominated Spielberg, Daldry, and Refn, whereas the HFPA filled out its category with Allen and Clooney. Notably absent from both lists were the lesser-known helmers responsible for two of the strongest best picture Oscar contenders, Taylor and Miller, who seem to me much more likely to crack into this year's best director Oscar lineup than Refn or Clooney, if not Allen, Spielberg, or Daldry. Malick and Eastwood, two veteran masters with very different sensibilities, remain outside possibilities. (What's the deal with Eastwoodagreeing to appearon a reality show, though?! Of all people, I would have thought he'd be the least likely to agree to something like that.) Lastly, it seems that Fincher, who very nearly won his overdue Oscar last year for The Social Network, will not be back at the big show this year, as he has yet to be nominated by anyone for his latest effort.

►Over the past decade,only five peoplewho were nominated for best actor by both SAG and the HFPA were not subsequently nominated for it by the Academy. That being the case, this year's double-nominees Dujardin, Clooney, Pitt, and DiCaprio -- all of whom also scored BFCA best actor nods -- would appear to be locked and loaded, as I've long suspected. But who will snag the fifth spot? SAG threw us for a major loop this past week by selecting the veteran Mexican actor Bichir, 48, who has been toiling in relative obscurity since he was 14, but in hindsight it makes a lot of sense -- in addition to giving a worthy perf, screeners for his film were among the first to reach voters (and therefore got watched), plus his personal narrative and the opportunity to celebrate a bit of diversity in the race undoubtedly increased his appeal to voters. SAG nods are the best predictor of Oscar nods -- in 2009 they overlapped on 19 of 20 acting slots and in 2010 on 17 of 20 -- but one of their few discrepancies last year came in this category, so Bichir should be taken seriously but not regarded as a done deal. If he doesn't make the cut, who will? The BFCA opted instead for Fassbender and Gosling (for Drive, not Ides), whereas the HFPA, between its two best actor categories, opted for Fassbender and Gosling (for Ides, not Drive), as well as Gordon-Levitt, Wilson, Gleeson, and Gosling (Crazy, Stupid, Love). My money is on Fassbender, who is in one of the true movies of the moment (which is entering the cultural discussion at just the right time, and in which he gives a performance unlike any of the others) and who has matched Gosling in his omnipresence this year (he also starred in A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, and X-Men: The Last Stand).

►I have long presumed that Streep (who was the subject of a nice 60 Minutes segment this evening), Davis (who is now also appearing in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), and Williams are the safest bets, and this week's announcements did nothing to dispel that. What they did do, however, was confirm the degree of support that exists for veterans Swinton (BFCA, SAG, and HFPA nods) and Close (SAG and HFPA nods) over relative youngsters Theron (BFCA and HFPA nods), Mara (HFPA nod), Olsen (BFCA nod), Jones (none), and Dunst (none). While my gut feeling is that Swinton and Close are still somewhat vulnerable, based on the fact that many people find their films to be unbearable, I also, at present, cannot statistically justify not including them in my five. If someone is to knock one of them out, I think it will most likely be Mara, who is young, sexy, starring in a high-profile end-of-the-year release, physically transforms herself for her role, and plays a character whom many have come to regard as a feminist hero and icon. The movies of the other women in contention are probably just too small and/or quirky to compete.

►What was the hardest-to-crack category before last week's announcements remains the same after them -- indeed, if you ask me, the only sure-thing is still Plummer. Branagh had a great week (scoring nods with all three of the announcing groups (BFCA, SAG, and HFPA), as did Hill (SAG and HFPA). Brooks is probably still in good shape, despite a shocking/inexplicable SAG snub (he did score BFCA and HFPA nods). And then... your guess is as good as mine. The BFCA filled out its lineup with Nolte, Oswalt, and Serkis; SAG filled out its lineup with Nolte and Hammer (whom most had left for dead after J. Edgar's poor critical reception); and the HFPA went with Mortensen (another guy whose chances were thought to be hurt by his movie's disappearance from the discussion). When it comes to acting categories, I take SAG way more seriously than either of the other two groups. Therefore, while I acknowledge that it could be Hammer (who probably benefited from the spotlight afforded him by appearing in joint Q&A's with costar DiCaprio and director Eastwood), I'm currently inclined to go with Nolte (after all, everyone loves a good comeback story).

►Based on the numbers, it's hard to argue that Spencer, Bejo, and Chastain -- the key supporting talent in two of the strongest best picture contenders, and now all three BFCA, SAG, and HFPA nominees -- aren't good to go. I expected to be able to say the same of the young up-and-comer Woodley, but then SAG bafflingly left her off its list, which gives me a bit of pause; she was, however, nominated by both the BFCA and HFPA, and will benefit from the coattails of her popular film, so at the end of the day I still think she'll still make the Oscar cut. And so again, as I see it, it comes down to a race for a fifth slot. Will it be McTeer, who was nominated by SAG and the HFPA -- but not the BFCA -- for her great performance in a less-than-great movie? Or McCarthy, who was nominated by the BFCA and SAG -- but not the HFPA, which I find weird -- for her no-holds-barred perf in a summer comedy? Or Mulligan, who was nominated by BFCA -- but not by SAG or the HFPA -- for her shedding her good-girl image (and clothing) in an NC-17 flick? Or perhaps Bullock, the highest-profile of the lot, who gives one of her finest performances, but wasn't nominated by any of the three groups (perhaps because her film wasn't screened until just before all of their ballots were due)? At the moment, because I take a SAG-HFPA double nomination very seriously (and because I still struggle to see the Academy nominating someone who takes a dump in a sink), I'm going with McTeer... but I can't claim to feel especially confident about that.

►The BFCA and HFPA both nominated The Descendants and Moneyball, which was not unexpected. What is a bit surprising is that the only other adapted screenplay that the HFPA included among its five (it has just one screenplay category) was The Ides of March, not, say, The Help, Hugo, or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (the three with which the BFCA filled out its adapted category), any one of which could have used a bit of a boost. Meanwhile, it's getting harder and harder to see a path to a nomination for War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor, Drive, or any other hopefuls, which have yet to receive screenplay recognition from any major awards-dispensing organization. (War Horse was nominated for best adapted by the Satellite Awards and Tinker Tailor was voted the year's best adapted by the San Francisco Film Critics Circle, but that's about it.)

►The BFCA and HFPA nominations give me no reason to believe that it's not still a race between The Artist (yes, silent films do require scripts, or at least scenarios) and Midnight in Paris (Woody being Woody, only doing a better job than he has in recent years), the only original screenplay selections on which they overlapped. The BFCA also included Win Win, from indie specialist McCarthy; 50/50, Reiser's semi-autobiographical script; and Young Adult, Cody's first script from Reitman since Juno, for which she won this category four years ago. Beginners, Margin Call, and Rango seemed like they had decent shots but were not nominated. Now, based on its clear popularity in other categories, I'm starting to wonder if the females-penned Bridesmaids might not be a more likely Oscar nominee than any of them.

►Rango, Tintin, and Puss all seem to be holding steady, having scored nods with the BFCA and HFPA. As for the remaining two spots, I'm not yet ready to throw Cars 2 or Kung Fu Panda 2 under the bus, but I certainly noticed that Arthur Christmas, which had fallen out of the forefront of the discussion in recent weeks, beat out the former with the BFCA slot and the latter with the HFPA. In the end, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Academy go with only one of the two sequels and give the other spot to Christmas -- but, at this point, I just can't say for sure which is more vulnerable.

►The BFCA nominated Buck, Nim, and Undefeated, as well as three films that are ineligible for this year's Oscar race. Of the other films that are, the ones with the most buzz, at the moment, are Bill Cunningham, If a Tree Falls, and Paradise Lost 3 -- although Battle for Brooklyn, which follows an accidental activist over seven years as he fights to prevent his home and neighborhood from being demolished to make way for a massive real estate development, may be the category's big sleeper.

►When it comes to the best doc Oscar race, it's dangerous to place too much value on what other awards groups have to say, since the Oscar doc branch is notorious for marching to its own beat and often making eccentric choices. Nevertheless, it's worth noting -- though not particularly surprising -- that the BFCA and HFPA both nominated the Iranian film A Separation, which has long been considered the frontrunner to win the best doc Oscar (even if it hasn't exactly blown the socks off of the doc branch, the executive committee of which will nevertheless nominate it to avoid a major embarassment). The only other film on which the two agreed was The Skin I Live In -- which Spain opted not to submit for consideration this year. The BFCA filled out its list with the Lebanese, Finnish, and Polish entries, whereas the HFPA opted for the Chinese submission and two other Oscar-ineligible films.

►The BFCA reaffirmed the strong standing of Jane Eyre, The Artist, Hugo, and The Help, but somewhat surprisingly passed over the flashy work in W.E in favor of My Week with Marilyn, which appears gaining support across the board.

►The BFCA nominated The Artist, Hugo, War Horse, Dragon Tattoo, and Drive. (Incidentally, poor Tent has been nominated three times by ACE, the film editors' guild, without ever having been nominated for an Oscar!)

►The BFCA and HFPA agreed on four selections: Hugo, War Horse, The Artist, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. For their respective fifth slots, both went a bit outside of the box: the BFCA with Drive and the HFPA with W.E. The wild-card, in my opinion, is Desplat's work on Extremely Loud. Why? Because the film is only now beginning to screen; the score is fantastic and integral to the deeply moving story; and Desplat is a huge favorite of the Academy's music branch (he has received four nods in this category over the last five years).