Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Bury council area.

Main population centres: Radcliffe, Prestwich, Whitefield, Ainsworth.

Profile: The southern part of the borough of Bury (the actual town of Bury is almost wholly within Bury North). The seat covers three towns in the Irwell valley, all towns with an industrial past as mill towns (and papermaking in the case of Radcliffe) but which have continued to grow as residential suburbs despite the decline of heavy industry. There is a large Jewish community in Prestwich, and the seat as a whole has the highest proportion of Jewish residents of any seat outside London and the South East.

Politics: A Labour leaning marginal, the seat was held by the Consevatives right up until 1997, but they lost on a large swing in 1997 and while the Conservatives achieved an above average swing in 2010 it was not enough to overcome the large majority built up by Ivan Lewis.

Current MP

IVAN LEWIS (Labour) Born 1967, Prestwich. Educated at William Hulme Grammar School. Former chief executive of Manchester Jewish Federation. First elected as MP for Bury South in 1997. Junior minister at Department of Education and Skills 2003-2005, Economic Secretary 2005-2006, Junior health minister 2006-2008, junior international development minister 2008-2009, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs 2009-2010. Shadow Culture Secretary 2010-2011. Shadow Secretary of State for International Development 2011-2013, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary 2013-2015.

Past Results

2010

Con:

16216 (34%)

Lab:

19508 (40%)

LDem:

8796 (18%)

BNP:

1743 (4%)

Oth:

2004 (4%)

MAJ:

3292 (7%)

2005*

Con:

10829 (28%)

Lab:

19741 (50%)

LDem:

6968 (18%)

UKIP:

1059 (3%)

Oth:

557 (1%)

MAJ:

8912 (23%)

2001

Con:

10634 (27%)

Lab:

23406 (59%)

LDem:

5499 (14%)

MAJ:

12772 (32%)

1997

Con:

16225 (32%)

Lab:

28658 (57%)

LDem:

4227 (8%)

MAJ:

12433 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics

2015 Candidates

DANIEL CRITCHLOW (Conservative) Born Greater Manchester. Educated at Bury Church of England High School. Church of England vicar. Contested Wythenshawe and Sale East 2014 by-election.

Iain L – that really is a bit disingenuous of you (“he’s no longer a Cllr”).

Rob Largan was a Hammersmith Cllr until 3rd May 2017! Meaning that he was a Cllr when selected as PPC here.

I don’t have a problem with him standing here – as I understand he grew up here, but a quick google shows several listings of him proclaiming that he’s a local there having lived there for over 6 years.

As I said both are fine in their own right, but you can’t claim to be local in two places simultaneously.

[I do however concede that the unexpected GE may have played a part – although we all know that H & F Cllrs are disproportionately parachuted into Northern seats at the last minute, as happened in the previous 5 GEs]

Allegations seem to have fizzled out. I hope that is because there are no more stories to come to light – but I doubt it. There is still much pressure on victims to keep quiet to avoid damaging their party (even though in such cases t is surely the perpetrator who is bringing the party into disrepute).

The Tory campaign here today was energetic. Their candidate only looked about 18 and my colleague tells me he saw a group that age in shorts leafleting at 5am!

So whilst he was Jewish and as it’s Bury and the news this week that may be a slight reason, this ward is far less Jewish than other Bury wards. It contains 2 or 3 council estates and so it reminds me of the large Tory by-election swings in Leasowe, Wallasey and Kingstanding. Birmingham by equally energetic younger candidates.

Local elections on a ward level are often more about effort than national factors, especially in wards which a party has taken for granted for donkeys years. In 2002, at the nadir of IDS’ leadership, I managed to get 30% of the vote in the Labour stronghold of Penge….the Tory vote there now is closer to 3%.

Been a few good results in Bury South in local elections since last year. The locals in May showed a 6% swing to the Tories on 2014 and they picked up two wards from Labour, including Radcliffe North which has no Jewish community.

The contrast with Bury North, where the momentum all seems to be with Labour, is quite noticeable.

Ivan Lewis – suspended since last year after allegations about sexual harassment was reported (after previous allegations were publicly reported in 2008)- has resigned from the Labour party -citing antisemitism as the reason.

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