The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

Species that depend on steppe habitat—the transition between desert and wetter, taller grassland—are particularly susceptible to changes in climate. Organisms living on the plains can’t simply move up a mountain to follow suitable climate conditions. The result can be the widespread disappearance of an entire ecosystem. That seems to be partly what’s happening here. While the situation isn’t as dire as that of the Sprague’s pipit, the Chestnut-collared Longspur is projected to have almost three-quarters of its current breeding range become climatically incompatible, and suitable areas are projected to decrease by 40 percent as a whole.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.