Friday, January 15, 2010

Something for almost everyone in the latest full-scale Welsh YouGov poll - except for Lib Dems. Labour still lead (just), the Tories make dramatic progress from their 2005 position (bringing into even sharper relief the dismal performance of the Scottish Tories), and while Plaid Cymru seem to suffer even more than the SNP from the Westminster 'away fixture' effect, the seat projections nevertheless place them on an all-time high of five. But the best news of all is that there is solid backing for the principle of the National Assembly gaining full law-making powers. This should not lead to complacency - single-issue polling is typically far more volatile than voting intention figures, and for the evidence of that we need look no further than the referendum on an assembly for the northeast of England. However, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that these figures show that an early referendum on the issue can be won, and Peter Hain's excuses for kicking it into the long grass are looking thinner by the day.

Amusing to witness on the blogosphere the effortless way the usual suspects cherry-pick the bits of this poll they like and discard the bits they don't. The evidence for a Tory surge in Wales is naturally cast-iron to them, but the support for greater devolution can apparently be easily explained away thus - "I think you should be careful about polls asking people if they 'want more' of something, as the answer is almost always yes." Ah, so that would neatly explain why what the Tories regarded as their 'golden bullet' argument against aspirations for Scottish and Welsh devolution in the 1980s and 90s - ie. endlessly pointing out to people that it would entail "more politicians" - fell so spectacularly flat on its face.