ON TARGET: Afghanistan headed for civil war

A group of young Afghan anti-fraud activists physically chain themselves together to block the entrance to the Kabul Airport during a demonstration in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Friday. (THE ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The dramatic developments in Iraq in recent weeks have garnered major headlines and, as a result, events in Afghanistan have been given rather short shrift. That said, it is almost impossible not to draw a comparison between the two conflicts in order to foresee the inevitable future of Afghanistan.

The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 toppled the totalitarian regime of Saddam Hussein, which immediately set in motion a series of civil wars between disparate ethnic and religious sects. While some of the hatred and violence was directed at the American occupation forces, the vast majority of the killing took place between Iraqi factions vying for eventual control of Iraq’s vast oil riches.

After the withdrawal of U.S. military forces in December 2011, violence steadily increased as Iraqi security forces, trained by the U.S., showed little willingness to sacrifice themselves in support of elected but unloved President Nouri al-Maliki.

The more than decade-long democratic experiment in Iraq completely collapsed in early June as al-Qaida fighters under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria swept away Maliki’s troops and declared a caliphate in central Iraq. The Kurdish militias used the chaos to seize the northern oilfields of Kirkuk, and the Shiite militias mobilized in southern Iraq to protect the oilfields of Basra.

The country is now effectively divided into three distinct territories, with al-Qaida running amok and unchecked in their own fiefdom. In other words, it is a total mess with no foreseeable end to a vicious cycle of bloodshed and chaos.

With Afghanistan, the Americans didn’t need to ignite a civil war as one was already underway when the Twin Towers were attacked on 9-11. The fundamentalist Taliban faction controlled the majority of the country, including the al-Qaida camps that housed Osama bin Laden, their Saudi Arabian leader, and his foreign volunteers.

When the Taliban refused America’s demand to hand over bin Laden into their custody, the U.S. mobilized and supported the northern Afghan militias who were already engaged in a war against the Taliban. In typical dumbed-down, Hollywood script-style, good versus evil media plot lines, these Northern Alliance fighters were propelled into the spotlight, given white hats and, as allies of the U.S. in their fight against the evil Taliban, portrayed as freedom lovers. In addition to giving bin Laden safe haven, the Taliban was also responsible for ruthlessly enforcing a strict dress code upon Afghan women in the form of the notorious burka.

While Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance, backed by U.S. air power and Special Forces, quickly toppled the Taliban, bin Laden successfully eluded the massive manhunt until 2011. Rather than dwell on their inability to capture the alleged 9/11 mastermind, the U.S. celebrated the fact that by December 2001 — with the help of the Northern Alliance — they had brought freedom, soon to be followed by democracy, to war-torn Afghanistan.

It was this delusional pipe dream that Canada, our NATO allies and the numerous other nations who contributed to the post-Taliban International Security Assistance Force all bought into. The problem, from the outset, was that the Northern Alliance was made up of ruthless warlords, not freedom-loving democrats. They had originally resisted against the Soviet occupation from 1980 to 1989, often supported by the U.S. but always fighting as mujahedeen in support of Islamic fundamentalism.

Having supported the U.S. against the Taliban, once the democratic process was implemented, they simply became elected officials. The facade of democracy has always been a total sham in Afghanistan as these warlords-turned-cabinet ministers still maintained their own private armies.

Whatever the result, whoever seizes control of the presidency will not matter a whit anyway once the Americans withdraw their troops. Like Iraq, Afghanistan will erupt in another civil war resulting in a failed state. You read it here first.