I won't post my ballot until everything is tallied and compiled (unless you'd rather I not at all), but I will note a few observations and thoughts this time around.

Unlike the mid-season poll where the 2-9 could've gone really in any order, I think we have a little bit better of an idea of where the top teams fall. To this end, in order to fill spots 2-9 I ended up breaking it into two separate tiers: spots 2-5 and spots 6-9. While I don't think there is a huge gap between the fifth and sixth best team, I do think certain teams have better chances to capture the OAC state title than others and I also think certain teams have better odds at beating the TU/B standard bearer Dublin Scioto. The latter is more based off stats, head-to-head, and my own personal intuition (I leaned harder on stats and head-to-head for several schools I haven't read for yet.) I do think there is still great parity between 2-9 in that anyone can beat anybody, but I think between results at Olmsted Falls, Northmont OAC, and Solon's two-day it's tougher for me to believe "the eighth best team could also be the second best team" than it was back in December (if that makes sense...)

10-15...

I had a pretty good idea of who belonged at #10, but 11-15 was once again a case of (to borrow Tyler's words from the mid-season poll thread) "thin resumes." Two of teams I ranked in the last five spots I chose specifically for head-to-head wins they had over teams I had in my top five, but it also helped those same two teams in the 11-15 range also have had some nice finishes in the few events they competed in over the last two years. Of the other three teams that rounded out my top 15: two of them I personally felt were worthy of top 15 consideration based on stats and tournament finishes (but again, thin resumes); my #15 team actually has a "not thin" resume in terms of tournament appearances. They have put up some decent PPB in the events they've gone to, they could make it to OAC States, and nothing really indicated to me why any other team was more deserving of rounding out my top 15.

In case anyone is interested, I've been updating the stat spreadsheet for the second half of the season (linked at end of this post)...new sets included are GSAC, Delta Burke, IS-163A, IS-158, IS-162, IS-164, and HFT. Between now and NAQT State, I only anticipate adding entries for Mason Mashup (IS-165A) and Yellow Jacket (BHSAT), since Northmont Novice is a restricted field and OAC tournaments (like Copley this weekend) don't use the same statistics. The same methodology and caveats apply as in the mid-season stats post (go check it out!). IS-160 remains the baseline for comparison since it has the most data points associated with it and because I don't want to go back and change the adjustments all over the spreadsheet. Feel free to call out mistakes or take issue with how things are calculated (or try a formula of your own, all this is non-proprietary!). I went back and forth on whether to find some way to add greater weight to performance since January 1, etc., but instead I kept everything unweighted and decided to let the entire season's worth of data speak for itself.

I will note that my voting on my OQBA poll ballot will not be 100% aligned with these statistical rankings. There might be some overlap, but the stats ranking doesn't factor in head-to-head victories, experience, and other elements that old grumpy sportswriters on TV always bring up when talking about the shortcomings of advanced metrics, such as heart, grit, and gumption.

New teams entering the spreadsheet this cycle are Walnut Hills and Lakewood.

Quick Takes: Beavercreek jumps two spots after strong conversion on both days of Solon Comet Clash...Copley rises four spots...Lakewood enters the top 10 after clearing 20 PPB at Solon...strong league performances buoy Boardman and Aurora.

Asterisks: Westlake still has only one TU/B tournament in the database (Solon Fall), as does Lakewood (Comet Clash). Olentangy Liberty is a "program ranking" due to lineup changes.

Asterisks: See above for Westlake. Walnut Hills also only has one tournament associated with it (Miami Invitational). Performance at Winter War (Delta Burke) was not included because the question set does not include powermarks.

Inspired by Tom's post, I tried to compile a head-to-head ranking of sorts by tracking team records against top-10 opponents like you see during NCAA football and basketball playoff time. (I defined top-10 according to the OQBA midseason poll: Scioto, Sidney, Miami Valley, Copley, Beavercreek, Fisher, Solon, Boardman, Northmont, and Westlake). I calculated this stat for the top 15 teams in the combined ranking above. See below for wins & losses, win percentage vs. midseason top 10, and "notes of interest" in italics ("interest" being defined by anything that pops into my pea brain). Disclaimer: of any section in this post, this section is the most likely to have errors due to sheer blindness (I put this together from the NAQT and HSQB databases)

Again, all statistical rankings are for entertainment purposes only. I look forward to this weekend when stats guru Fred Morlan releases a new top 200 on HSQBRank and has all these teams totally flipped around. (If I had to guess, one of the main differences will likely be a greater adjustment attached to A-sets). Have fun discussing in the meantime! For the really nutty among you, you can peruse the full data spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0. There's plenty to keep you busy! I apologize if there are errors...let me know if you spot any.

Edit 1: updated Aurora's head-to-head to reflect that Portage League season is not yet complete

Portage League isn't done yet. Aurora can still win the league if they beat Kenston, Cloverleaf drops a game, and they win the resultant tiebreaks of a circle of death. The final 3 rounds happen Monday night at the Maplewood JVS, then our tournament is March 9.

Speaking of Cloverleaf, I'd be interested in seeing where they are compared to the others, as well as other HSNCT-registered Ohio teams like Harding.

I might try to emulate your method for SSNCT teams, either registered or qualified, unless you're already working on something like that.

Thanks, Greg. I updated the post above to reflect that the Portage League is still in action. When stats go up for the remaining rounds, I'll add them to the master spreadsheet.

Cloverleaf is on my full spreadsheet...they currently sit right behind Northmont at spot #16 in the aPPB rankings with an adjusted figure of 18.92 (Northmont is at 19.01). Their adjusted power percentage is 31.42%, which puts them at #20 of teams in the rankings pool, essentially tied with #19 University School (31.59%) and #18 Lakewood (adjusted percentage of 31.64% from Comet Clash). League rival Aurora is at #17 with 33.42%. Just based on quick ciphering, their "combined" number of 36 (16+20) would have them ranked in the high teens-low 20s, a hair behind Olentangy Liberty (14+21=35) and Tippecanoe (27+7=34).

This seems as good a time as any to say that there are some teams that are not on the master sheet...when making the master spreadsheet, I typically would only enter a team's data if they were around 17 points per bonus before adjustment on any set, since I was interested mainly in comparing the statistical data points to the midseason poll. I do apologize for any teams that haven't been entered due to this cutoff...I didn't mean to slight anybody, it was just a way to make the process a little less overwhelming.

Greg, I think doing a small school ranking is a great idea...go for it! You would know the landscape better than I would. Feel free to use the adjustments calculated in my sheet or derive your own. I also like the idea of doing analysis for the Ohio schools registered for HSNCT...after NAQT State wraps up I'll try and make up a pre-HSNCT (and SSNCT?) rundown.

Edit 1: added the combined ranking for Cloverleaf in addition to aPPB and aP%

For what it's worth, the latest Morlan Top 200 was released on HSQBRank this Saturday. These rankings are based on adjusted points-per-bonus and do not include any tournaments played after February 1 (this means that as far as Ohio-run tournaments go, Battle Buzz, Van Wert, Miami Invitational, and both days of Comet Clash weren't used...not sure about leagues like Mahoning and Portage). Here's a quick Ohio roundup in order of finish:

Ohio placed 12 teams in the top 200, which is good for 5th in the country (Kentucky was 4th with 14 teams and New Jersey was 6th with 11). Kudos to all the tournament directors, staff, and players around the state who help to maintain such a robust circuit!

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