Wednesday, April 30, 2014

April 30, 2014 Iraqis head to the polls in the general
election. Iraq’s last few elections have all provided surprises, and this one
looks to be no different. In 2009, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s new State
of Law (SOL) party swept the south and Baghdad in the provincial elections
building upon his success against Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra,
Maysan, and Baghdad, his military campaign against insurgents in Mosul, and
challenging the Kurds over the disputed territories the year before. The
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) was the big loser as the voters punished
it for its poor performance after being the big winner in 2005. Then in 2010 it
appeared that Maliki would again have a big win, but was surpassed by one seat
by the Iraqi National Movement. Maliki had to resort to the courts to get a
ruling to allow him to put together a coalition after the voting instead of letting
the winner with the most ballots do it. He then played upon the divisions
within the INM, and the Kurdish parties’ fear of the INM to obtain a second
term. In the 2013 provincial level balloting it was State of Law that lost
seats for its lack of good governance. More importantly the Sadrists and
Supreme Council formed cross sectarian coalitions to shut SOL out of some new
local governments.

Most Iraq watchers now seem to believe that the prime
minister will get the most seats in parliament, and then go through a very long
process of negotiations that could drag out for up to a year, and ensure
himself another four years in office. The premier is hoping that his Shiite
base will come out for him out of fear of the growing insurgency, and give him
a plurality of votes. He will then be able to play upon the splits within the
Sunni parties to ally with Deputy Premier Salah al-Mutlaq. If that gives him
momentum the history of Iraqi politics is for the other parties to jump on
board to assure themselves positions within the new government.

An alternative scenario could play out however. Last year
ISCI was able to cut into Maliki’s base, and are hoping to repeat that again. It
has portrayed itself as a nationalist party that has the support of the
religious establishment in Najaf. The Sadrists’ Ahrar bloc believes that it can
maintain its alliance with the Supreme Council that it forged in the 2013 elections.
If they get anything near the number of seats of Maliki it will be a free for
all for to create the majority necessary for a new government. The two Shiite
religious parties could play upon the mutual hatred of the prime minister felt
by other lists such as Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun and Kurdish President
Massoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) to counter SOL. In previous
years Maliki has been able to play off the differences of his opponents, but
this year their opposition to him could be strong enough to actually unite
them. This might give the prime minister a 50-50 chance to stay in power. The
problem is that it will be months before the actual winners are determined, and
in the meantime the status quo will remain. It should also be noted that if the
anti-Maliki factions prevail they will not be able to form a majority
government that does not include SOL. The courts are under the sway of Maliki
and he will likely turn to them to overturn any coalition that does not include
him.

A third possibility is that the government formation process
becomes so deadlocked that Maliki will give up the premiership, but demand that
SOL retain the position. That would require a new candidate within the list to
be found. Besides Higher Education Minister Ali al-Adeeb, who is a rival to
Maliki, the party lacks other prominent members. Then again, the prime minister
was a middling official in Dawa before he assumed the top spot in 2006, so
there is a precedent of someone emerging from the wings to assume power. Deputy
Premier Hussein Shahristani of the Independents could be another alternative as
well.

Last there is the role of outside powers. The Obama
administration appears to be trying to re-engage with Iraq due to the rising
violence. It will likely try to play a neutral role however, and just ensure
that the process is as fair as possible. That’s not true of the other players.
Turkey has gone back and forth on Maliki, but is allied with Mutahidun and the
KDP. It could push the two to work together over their opposition to the prime
minister. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are against Maliki as well, but they
also oppose Shiite rule overall, which is a dead end given the ethnosectarian
quota system that the ruling parties believe in. That will limit their
influence. Finally, Iran might play a pivotal role. It may back Maliki to
maintain the status quo in Iraq, because it is more concerned about the
fighting in Syria right now. Then again, it could be angry with Maliki for
playing divide and conquer with the Kurdish and other Shiite parties that have
close ties to Tehran, which has led to political instability in Iraq. That
could be a game changer if it throws its weight behind the Supreme Council and
Sadrists during negotiations for a new government. Given these factors it
appears that Iraq’s 2014 elections will have many more uncertainties than
givens.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Iraq held its special voting on April 28, 2014. The early
balloting is mostly for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The Iraqi Election
Commission said there was over 90% participation. That was despite a wave of
attacks by the insurgency. That showed that the militants were not able to
disrupt the voting despite their best efforts.

The ISF, prisoners, and those in hospitals came out in high numbers on April 28 to cast their
ballots. The Iraqi Election Commission claimed there was a 91%
turnout in the special voting. In Anbar only 40%
participated. The on going fighting there and difficult security situation
were the likely causes of the low percentage. There are 9,039
candidates representing 277 parties competing for 328 seats this year. The
general public will vote on April 30. There are questions about the political
loyalties of the ISF. Political parties have accused Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki of attempting to sway
their votes towards his State of Law party. In Kurdistan there is no such
uncertainty as the peshmerga, Asayesh and others work for the ruling Kurdistan
Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan despite talk of them being
integrated into a regional force.

Peshmerga voting in Irbil (AFP)

Female Peshmerga showing their died fingers after voting in Irbil (AFP)

Voting in Ramadi where there is on-going fighting (AFP)

SWAT voting in Najaf (AP)

More died fingers in Karbala (AFP)

Police lining up in Baghdad to vote (AFP)

Voting took place despite a wave of terrorist attacks by the
insurgency. From April 22-28 the Iraqi press and international news agencies
reported 226 security incidents, 347 deaths, and 744 wounded. That was much
like the week before when there were 252 attacks, 406 killed, and 786 injured.
On the special voting day alone there were 25 attacks, 86 fatalities, and 157
wounded. That was below the 33.9 attacks per day average for the month so far. Militants
have been going after voting centers and candidates in the last several weeks. April
22 there were four attacks including one on a candidate’s house in Khalidiya, Anbar, a school,
which was being used as a voting center in Niamiya, Anbar, on another voting
center to the south of Kirkuk, and an IED on a rally for Ahmed Chalabi in
Mahmudiya, Babil. April 23 saw an IED on an election center in Hit,
Anbar, an IED on a candidate’s
house in Sulaiman Bek, Salahaddin, and shooting
at a campaign car in Tikrit, Salahaddin. April 24 had a mortar
on a school in Ramadi, Anbar, IEDs on voting centers in Hit, Tel
Zatar, and Mohammadi,
Anbar, and one in Baquba,
Diyala. April 25 a member of the Election Commission was shot at in Rutba,
Anbar and another was bombed in Sadiya,
Diyala. Voting centers were attacked in Wasti,
Kirkuk and Hit. The deadliest event
however was the multiple bombings of a rally
by the League of the Righteous in eastern Baghdad that left at least 160
casualties. April 26 polling centers in Qaim,
Anbar, southeast
of Mosul, Kirkuk,
and three in Baiji and four in Siniya,
Salahaddin were all attacked. April 27 a candidate was hit by an IED in Qaim,
and voting centers in Siniya,
and two
in Kirkuk
were targeted again. Finally, on April 28 suicide bombers hit polling stations
in Ramadi,
Tuz
Khormato, Salahaddin, Adhamiya,
Baghdad, Wasti
and Hawija,
Kirkuk, and fourinMosul,
Ninewa,
while there were shots fired at ones in Wasti
and Kirkuk,
an IED on one in Mosul,
and a mortar barrage on another in Ramadi.
Vehicle traffic is usually banned during the balloting, which makes car
bombings extremely difficult, and accounts for the high number of suicide
bombers on April 28. That didn’t seem to deter many, especially since all the
violence was concentrated in just seven of Iraq’s eighteen provinces. The real
test will be April 30 when the general public comes out, because that will
provide far more targets.

There has always been violence on election days. April 28
was no different. The insurgents were held below their average for the year
however, which is positive. More importantly the vast majority of the security
forces and others eligible for early voting participated. The general election will not be as high as it usually
averages around 50%. This year it might be lower as many Sunnis have lost
confidence in politics, and might be intimidated by the militant groups that
have launched their own campaign against voting. Whatever the final percentage
is this is an important election as it is a competitive one, and thus another
important event in the development of Iraq’s democracy.

Monday, April 28, 2014

Iraq is due to have parliamentary elections on April 30,
2014. Many insurgent groups are opposed to the voting and are doing their best
to disrupt the process. They have attacked polling stations and candidates
along with their regular operations against the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and
the general public. The result is that April has seen some of the heaviest
violence and casualties so far this year.

In March 2014 the number of security incidents dipped in
Iraq, but have picked back up since then. From March 1-7 there were 253
security incidents reported in the press. That was an average of 36.1 attacks
per day. That was followed by 206 incidents March 8-14, an average of 29.4,
then 216 March 15-21, 30.8, 211 March 22-28, 30.1, and 108 from March 29-31,
36.0. In April those figures have gone up to 238 incidents April 1-7, 34.0, 223
April 8-14, 31.8, and 252 from April 15-21, 36.0 per day. For the year there
has been an up and down pattern. There were a total of 1,012 attacks in January
for an average of 32.6 per day, 945 incidents in February, average of 33.7, 996
in March, 32.1 per day, and 713 from April 1-7, 33.9. This month the insurgency
is obviously picking up their operations to try to disrupt the elections.

The number of security incidents only tells part of the
story of Iraq’s current problems, the casualties tell another part of the
story. The number of dead and wounded has steadily increased since the
beginning of the year. In January there were 1,379 deaths and 2,634 wounded. In
February there were 1,274 killed and 2,526 wounded, 1,606 fatalities in March,
and 2,901 wounded, and 1,027 killed and 1,982 injured from April 1-21. The
rising costs of the insurgency are shown more clearly by the averages. There
were 44.4 deaths per day in January, 45.5 per day in February, 51.8 in March,
and 48.9 over the first three weeks of April. The same trend is seen with the
wounded going from 84.9 per day in January to 94.3 in April.

Security Incidents In
Iraq Jan-Apr 2014

Date

Incidents

Killed

Wounded

Jan 1-7

245

363

736

Jan 8-14

267

372

683

Jan 15-21

202

358

597

Jan 22-28

240

308

624

Jan 29-31

58

93

227

Jan Total

1,012

1,379

2,634

Feb 1-7

204

296

700

Feb 8-14

226

258

505

Feb 15-21

264

346

703

Feb 22-28

251

374

618

Feb Total

945

1,274

2,526

Mar 1-7

253

412

702

Mar 8-14

206

324

607

Mar 15-21

216

423

736

Mar 22-28

211

279

580

Mar 29-31

108

169

270

Mar Total

996

1,606

2,901

Apr 1-7

238

259

550

Apr 8-14

223

362

646

Apr 15-21

252

406

786

Apr 1-21

713

1,027

1,982

Security Incident
Averages Jan-Apr 2014

Month

Incidents

Deaths

Wounded

Jan

32.6

44.4

84.9

Feb

33.7

45.5

90.2

Mar

32.1

51.8

93.5

Apr 1-21

33.9

48.9

94.3

The number of shootings has decreased since the beginning of
the year, while bombings have gone up. There were 470 gunfire incidents in
January, going down to 444 in February, 419 in March, and 289 so far in April.
At the same time the number of bombings, mostly improvised explosive devices
(IEDs), but also including sticky bombs, car bombs, and suicide bombers has
gone from 514 in January to 466 in February, to 579 in March, and 385 in the
first three weeks of April. That last month the number of car bombs has
increased. For instance there were 18 vehicle born improvised explosive devices
(VBIEDs) from April 1-7, 21 from April 8-14, and 20 from April 15-21. These are
launched in waves by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and
usually coordinated across the country. The third week of April provides a
brief sample. The first wave started April 15 when there were two suicide car
bombs on the government complex in Ramadi. The next day two suicide bombers
attacked the Anbar Operations Command in Ramadi, while two car bombs hit Sadr
City and Obeidi both in eastern Baghdad. April 17 three VBIEDs struck Karrada,
Obeidi and Sadr City in the capital. April 18 there were no such attacks. Then
the second wave started on April 19 with a car bomb on an army base in Sumer, Ninewa
and another in Baiji, Salahaddin. Then there was a car bomb in Musayib, Babil,
a car bomb on a checkpoint in Mosul, Ninewa, and two VBIEDs on Rumaitha,
Muthanna on April 20. Finally, April 21 car bombs hit Sadr City and Shaab, and
a suicide VBIED in Madain on a checkpoint in Baghdad, another such incident in
Mosul, and another checkpoint hit in Wasit. In total these attacks cost the
lives of 83 people and wounded an additional 219. The number of car bombs goes
up and down as ISIS expends its stocks and has to wait for the next batch to be
manufactured.

Militants have also gone after voting centers and candidates
to deter people from voting. Just in April there was an IED
against a voting center in Ramadi on the 5th. April 6
a grenade was thrown at a candidate’s house in Hit, Anbar. April 7
an IED went off outside a candidate’s home in Hawija, Kirkuk. April
9 two people putting up election posters in Tikrit were shot and wounded. April 11
another candidate’s house was bombed in Kirkuk wounding his wife and son. The same thing happened the next
day in the same city. April 14 the
son of a candidate in Kirkuk was kidnapped. April 17 and 18
two candidates were shot and wounded in separate incidents. April 19
a sticky bomb attached to his car in Qaim, Anbar, wounded a candidate for
Mutahidun. Finally, April
21 a voting center in Daquq, Kirkuk was stormed by gunmen who killed six
and wounded another 10. These types of incidents have only increased as the
voting draws nearer.

While violence has picked up in recent weeks not all
insurgent groups are opposed to the election. Reportedly
ISIS, the Naqshibandi, the Army of the Mujahedeen, Ansar al-Islam, and armed
factions connected to Harith al-Dhari are all against participating in the
balloting. The Islamic State has even launched a campaign telling and
threatening people not to vote. The Islamic Army, Hamas Iraq, the Salahaddin
Brigades, and the Political Council of the Iraqi Resistance support people
going out and casting ballots. Since the two largest groups ISIS and the
Naqshibandi are trying to stop the vote that likely means attacks will continue
to increase. More importantly there’s a questions of whether the Iraqi Security
Forces (ISF) are competent enough to protect the polling stations and public on
April 30. Usually the government tries to shut down normal activities by
declaring a day off, setting up checkpoints, and banning vehicle traffic. With
the ISF stretched thin with its commitment in Anbar, and its inability to
contain the growth of the insurgency these may not be enough this year, and
serious incidents may take place.

Iraq History Timeline

About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. I have written for the Jamestown Foundation, Tom Ricks’ Best Defense at Foreign Policy and the Daily Beast, and was responsible for a chapter in the book Volatile Landscape: Iraq And Its Insurgent Movements. My work has been published in Iraq via NRT, AK News, Al-Mada, Sotaliraq, All Iraq News, and Ur News all in Iraq. I was interviewed on BBC Radio 5, Radio Sputnik, CCTV and TRT World News TV, and have appeared in CNN, the Christian Science Monitor, The National, Columbia Journalism Review, Mother Jones, PBS’ Frontline, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Institute for the Study of War, Radio Free Iraq, Rudaw, and others. I have also been cited in Iraq From war To A New Authoritarianism by Toby Dodge, Imagining the Nation Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-Political Conflict in Iraq by Harith al-Qarawee, ISIS Inside the Army of Terror by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassahn, The Rise of the Islamic State by Patrick Cocburn, and others. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com