15 October 2010 Customised software for assessing the effects of climate change was
demonstrated to government technical staff in Tonga recently.

The climate modelling software is being provided through the
Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC)/ German Technical Cooperation
(GTZ) Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change in the Pacific Island
Region (ACCPIR).

A three-day (4-6 October) training session on using the TongaSimCLIM
software was held at the Forestry Division in Tongatapu for technical
officers from the Ministries of Environment and Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food, Forests and Fisheries, Lands, Survey and Natural
Resources and the Meteorology Department. The training focused on
software application to examine and assess impacts of climate
variability and change in Tonga. Participants were also introduced to a
customised version of PlantGro 4.0, which can be used to explore
possible alternative crops and trees for islands in Tonga. The training
was conducted by CLIMsystems, the developer of TongaSimCLIM.

CLIMystems said that the software has been customised for use by Tonga
with a local, very high resolution (30 metre), digital elevation model
for the islands of Tongatapu, Vava'u, Ha'apai and Niuatoputapu. Also
available are other data specifically collected for application in the
island kingdom. The high resolution TongaSimCLIM includes 21 general
circulation models - tools for generating and analysing various climate
change scenarios including extreme weather events and running rainwater
tank simulations. The latter showed that although annual precipitation
is projected to increase in Tongatapu as a result of climate change, the
dry period is actually expected to get drier

The TongaSimCLIM sea-level rise simulation is the only climate impact
assessment tool of its kind that accounts for local trends in sea-level
rise in combination with vertical land movements, over a period of
time, in looking at potential scenarios. The Tonga tidal station shows a
9.21 mm sea-level rise a year, whilst satellite data records indicate a
rise of 6.29 mm a year. This has led to the conclusion that the area
around the tidal station is sinking at a rate of 2.92 mm per year.
Projections generated under a high climate sensitivity scenario and
worse case story line for global greenhouse gas emissions (A1F1) show a
possible sea-level rise of 952 mm for Tongatapu by the year 2100. The
worst case from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change for the world is 590 mm. The fact that the area
is slowly sinking worsens the real rate of sea-level rise. It is
important to note that this is just one scenario for possible sea-level
change and that the data record is not very long.

However, sea-level rise is not the most critical concern for the
reefs of Tonga. In a much shorter time period, rising sea surface
temperatures and ocean acidification are likely to impact on the health
and vitality of the fringing reef. Reef degradation will affect the
productivity of coastal fisheries and marine ecosystems.

Deputy Director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Forests and
Fisheries, Mr Tevita Faka'osi, commended the training saying that it
also facilitated better understanding of the science behind climate
change.

The SPC/GTZ ACCPIR programme is supporting Tonga in the development
of effective land use planning processes, adaptation strategies, and
supporting databases to help the land-based sector better cope with
climate change.

For more information please contact the SPC Land Resources Division helpdesk:
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ENDS

Issued by the: Ministry of Information and Communications, Nuku'alofa, 2010