Friday, January 18, 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE HUN CWFA...AND ASOF 09Z IS IN THE VICINITY OF HSV. THIS IS HELPING TO DISSIPATE THESTRATUS THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SWLYFLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENINGTROUGH IN THE LEE OF THEROCKIES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER ON AREA WX TONIGHT/TMRW.

SHORT-TERM FCST CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL SNOW EVENTTONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OVERALL SNOW POTENTIALHAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUN CWFA...WITH THEHIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXISTING S/E OF A CULLMAN-SCOTTSBORO LINE.

IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENINGTROUGH...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE THE SRN TX COAST...ANDTHE SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE NCNTRL GULF TONIGHT THEN ON TOTHE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE EARLY SAT...AN ARCTIC FRONTWILL BE SWEEPING INTO NRN AL. THIS GENERAL SETUP HAS NOT SHIFTEDSIGNIFICANTLY FROM PRIOR MDL RUNS. WHAT HAS CHANGED IS THE TIMING...WHICH HAS SHIFTED 3-6HR LATER...AND A SLIGHT SWD SHIFT IN THE UPPERJET. SINCE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE MOISTURE TO PENETRATE BEHINDTHE ARCTIC FRONT...THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF FROM MDL CONSENSUS HASSHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND IS FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-59CORRIDOR. 00Z AND 06Z RUNS NOW SHOW THE HUN CWFA ON THE NRN FRINGESOF THE PCPN...AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT NWRN AL/SWRN MID TNMAY SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WHATSOEVER IF CURRENT MODELS VERIFY.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN RECENT MEMORY CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE IS HIGH...WITH LITTLE DOUBT THAT ALMOST EVERYTHING WILL FALL AS SNOW. THEPROBLEM IS QPF. WHILE THERE WERE TWO VERY DIFFERENT MODEL CAMPS THISTIME YESTERDAY...THEY HAVE CONVERGED SHARPLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLYSOLN...WITH MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LIGHTERPRECIP. HOWEVER...OUR FCST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ASLOWER FRONT...OR MORE LIKELY...SLIGHTLY EARLIER PCPN ONSET. THUSWILL TAPER POPS UP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BTWN12-18Z TMRW...STILL ONLY TOPPING OUT AT 60 PCT IN OUR SERN AREAS. INTERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...USING SNOW-WATER RATIOS LESS THAN 10:1 /MOREREALISTIC FOR THIS AREA/ YIELDS STORM TOTALS LESS THAN 1 INCH FORMOST OF THE AREA...BUT APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN SERN LOCATIONS.WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA IS 2 INCHES IN 12 HRS. WITH SOLNSCONVERGING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY AXIS...CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS MORELIBERAL APPROACH IS SIMPLY NOT THERE FOR A WATCH...AND FEEL IT ISTOO EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SPS...ALBEITONE TONED DOWN FROM THE WETTER SOLNS YESTERDAY.

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