The BGwiki description of how crafting works implies there are 3 independent probabilities:
1) Break or Success
I could potentially reanalyze my data for break rates if people particularly care, but at the moment I am ignoring the first comparison because that's not supposed to be related to what Rusks do.

2) NQ or HQ (varies based on HQ Tier, would be 1/4 for this synth)
Rusk:
25.61% (1546/6037)

No Rusk:
25.49% (1517/5951)

Chi squared p=0.883

The raw HQ rate is not significantly different between these samples.

3) HQ1 (12/16), HQ2 (3/16), or HQ3 (1/16)
Chi squared p=0.193

The HQ distributions are not significantly different between Rusk and No Rusk either. If I include NQs in the stats and assume steps 2 and 3 are not independent, the difference in the distributions becomes (p=0.346).

The BGwiki description of how crafting works implies there are 3 independent probabilities:
1) Break or Success
I could potentially reanalyze some of my data for break rates if people particularly care, but at the moment I am ignoring the first comparison because that's not supposed to be related to what Rusks do.

2) NQ or HQ (varies based on HQ Tier, would be 1/4 for this synth)
Rusk:
25.84% (1952/7554)

No Rusk:
25.52% (2078/8144)

Chi squared p=0.641

The raw HQ rate is not significantly different between these samples.

3) HQ1 (12/16), HQ2 (3/16), or HQ3 (1/16)
Chi squared p=0.128

The HQ distributions are not significantly different between Rusk and No Rusk either. If I include NQs in the stats and assume steps 2 and 3 are not independent, the difference in the distributions becomes (p=0.227).

Profit) This is unimportant on a theoretical level, but is a way to track the tangible outcome for myself. When made in bulk, NQ and HQ1 are valued at 2.4 and 3.8k respectively for all gemstones. HQ2s in bulk are only more valuable than their NPC value (3k) for Titanites, where Heliodors are worth about 40k each due to alchemists making Mallison Medallions for skillups. HQ3s vary between the different gemstones. Any avatear is worth at least 50k to me because some day SE could release neo-Brisingmen or Avatear earrings and I'll be damned if I'm not going to be ready. With a 10% HQ rate on Avarite rings (200k worth of Rhodium + Tear), Shivatears are worth 900k and Ifritear/Ramutears are worth 500k. I produce the other tears faster than I can sell HQ rings, so they are worth my floor price (50k). This really gives us four profiles:
Shivite (2.4/3.8/3/900)
Ramuite/Ifritite (2.4/3.8/3/500)
Titanite (2.4/3.8/40/50)
Garudite/Carbite/Fenrite/Leviatite (2.4/3.8/3/50)

Just multiplying the probabilities that from my data by the values, I end up with the No Rusk distribution being more valuable overall. Its higher HQ3 rate makes it the unopposed champions of Shivites (+2,881gil/synth) and Ifritite/Ramuites (+1,594gil/synth), while the difference in the distribution is nearly irrelevant for Titanites (-7gil/synth) and Fenrite/Leviatite/Carbite/Garudites (+147gil/synth). At the same time, 7600 synths at 25 seconds per synth means I used ~100 Rusks (300k). I could have been using 100 Kitron Macarons to reduce my break rate by 4%, each of which would have paid for itself slightly (low value avarites) or substantially (high value avarites).

So in terms of actual profit, the distributions encourage me to use Macarons over Rusks, but I'm going to try and hold out until I hit 10k in each sample (just because it's a nice, round number).

I hit 10k samples per condition and still have found no significant effect on HQ rate/tier/etc. This does not mean a difference does not exist, just that I cannot detect it in 20,000 synths. I will not be continuing this experiment, because it's annoying to track and my sample size is huge already.

The effect of Kitron Macarons on break rate, however, is pronounced. If Macarons works as described in FFXI community lore then Kitrons may be overkill for a single craft synth and Coffee or Cherry+Ring (both of which are cheaper from moogles) should be enough to cap you.

Personally, I'll be using Kitron Macarons for pretty much everything from here on out.

The BGwiki description of how crafting works implies there are 3 independent probabilities:
1) Break or Success
I could potentially reanalyze some of my data for break rates if people particularly care, but at the moment I am ignoring the first comparison because that's not supposed to be related to what Rusks do.

2) NQ or HQ (varies based on HQ Tier, would be 1/4 for this synth)
Rusk:
26.14% (2614/10000)

No Rusk:
25.34% (2534/10000)

Chi squared p=0.196

The raw HQ rate is not significantly different between these samples.

3) HQ1 (12/16), HQ2 (3/16), or HQ3 (1/16)
Chi squared p=0.180

The HQ distributions are not significantly different between Rusk and No Rusk either. If I include NQs in the stats and assume steps 2 and 3 are not independent, the difference in the distributions becomes (p=0.164).

Not sure if that was really determined. Looks like it did something but not sure an exact value got nailed down and certainly looked lower than 1% additive. Also to note that I didn't really notice before is it looked like rusk helped without hq rings but didn't with them. So like the success rate the hq rates might have caps based on tiers and you might be capping with a single hq ring

Not sure if that was really determined. Looks like it did something but not sure an exact value got nailed down and certainly looked lower than 1% additive. Also to note that I didn't really notice before is it looked like rusk helped without hq rings but didn't with them. So like the success rate the hq rates might have caps based on tiers and you might be capping with a single hq ring

didnt byrth somewhere calculate that citron macarons while not providing more HQ rate, in the end still produce more HQ stuff because of the lowered fail synths compared to rusks??? (when Crafting above your level)

didnt byrth somewhere calculate that citron macarons while not providing more HQ rate, in the end still produce more HQ stuff because of the lowered fail synths compared to rusks??? (when Crafting above your level)

Well it was more like putting numbers to an idea of how it could work based on some assumptions.

The assumptions though that aren't proven/have some contradictory info. Like it assumes rusks have zero effect on hq rate which his test showed but mine showed one though we had different test parameters that could of caused it I'm banking it on the hq ring capping you because that is such an SE thing to do so it might just be a matter of swapping rings and such though that said rings wont cap you success rate so should still be in favor of kitron. It also assumes kitrons will increase nqs and hqs equally while the smallish (1468 synths x2) test at the top of this page suggest otherwise.

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