Canada Dollar Rises Versus Majors on Biggest CPI Gain Since 1991

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar gained versus a
majority of its most traded peers after consumer prices rose at
the fastest monthly pace in more than 20 years in February,
raising speculation that interest rates will rise.

The currency fluctuated against the U.S. dollar after
gaining to the strongest level in a month as commodities
advanced and consumer prices climbed 1.2 percent last month, the
biggest gain since January 1991 when the country implemented a
new sales tax, Statistics Canada said. The so-called loonie fell
earlier as concern over the bailout for Cyprus and a political
deadlock in Italy undermined demand for higher-yielding assets.

“In the morning, the stronger-than-expected inflation
number supported the loonie, and then energy prices supported it
later,” Emanuella Enenajor, an economist at Canadian Imperial
Bank of Commerce’s CIBC World Markets unit in Toronto, said by
phone. “The Canadian dollar was supported by a combination of
the two.”

The loonie was little changed at C$1.0160 per U.S. dollar
in Toronto at 5 p.m. after touching C$1.0150, the strongest
since Feb. 22. It earlier fell as much as 0.3 percent. One
Canadian dollar buys 98.43 U.S. cents.

Canada’s benchmark 10-year government bonds jumped,
lowering yields by six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point,
to 1.75 percent, the lowest since Dec. 12. The 2.75 percent
security maturing in June 2022 increased 54 cents to C$108.41,
the highest since Jan. 1.

Bond Auction

The Bank of Canada sold C$2.9 billion ($2.9 billion) of 10-year notes today at an average yield of 1.882 percent, with a
bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36. The last auction of the notes on
Jan. 30 yielded 2.112 percent with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.15
percent.

Futures on crude oil gained 0.3 percent to $96.64 per
barrel in New York after touching $96.84, the highest point
since Feb. 20. Prices have risen 4.9 percent this month.

The discount between the Canadian and American benchmark
crude oil blends was at C$15.25 today, the narrowest since Oct.
15. It’s down from a record C$42.50 on Dec. 14. Oil is Canada’s
largest export and the U.S. is the nation’s biggest export
destination.

“The oil picture has swung substantially in the Canadian
dollar’s favor in the past month,” Adam Button, a currency
analyst at forexlive.com in Montreal, said by phone. “Oil
trades have been a tailwind for the loonie.”

Inflation Rate

Traders are the least bearish on the loonie in almost two
months, as so-called risk-reversals show options traders are
paying the least for protection against loonie weakness since
Feb. 5. The three-month 25-delta risk reversal rate touched 0.92
percentage point from as much as 1.49 percentage points on Feb.
26, its highest since Sept. 7.

The loonie erased earlier losses versus the greenback as
consumer prices were up 1.2 percent from a year earlier, the
highest since October, following a 0.5 percent gain in January.
The annual core inflation rate, which excludes eight volatile
items, accelerated to 1.4 percent from 1 percent in January, the
Ottawa-based agency said.

Economists predicted total inflation would accelerate to
0.8 percent and the core rate would be 1 percent, according to
median estimates.

The CPI number “does give it stronger tailwind to keep the
Bank of Canada on track for an eventual rate increase,” Joe
Manimbo, a market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, a
unit of Western Union Co., said by phone from Washington. “The
Canadian dollar has taken more of its cues from the improving
U.S. growth story, and that could have positive effects on
Canada’s economy.”

Carney’s View

Central-bank Governor Mark Carney reiterated to lawmakers
last month in Ottawa a rate boost from the current 1 percent is
less urgent than previously anticipated because the weaker-than-expected economy is keeping inflation below the bank’s 2 percent
target.

Canada’s economy grew 0.1 percent in January after
shrinking 0.2 percent the month before, according to the median
estimate of a Bloomberg survey of 24 economists before the
government reports the data tomorrow.

Canada’s dollar gained versus the euro as a bailout for
Cyprus and a political deadlock in Italy undermined demand for
the region’s assets.

Cyprus’s banks will open for six hours tomorrow with
capital restrictions in place after staying shut for almost two
weeks as the island nation faced financial collapse.

In Italy, Democratic Party head Pier Luigi Bersani was
rejected by leaders of Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement after
their talks aimed at forming a governing coalition were
broadcast live on the Internet.

The Canadian dollar has gained 0.9 percent in the past
three months against nine other developed-nation currencies
tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The U.S.
dollar has picked up 3 percent, while the euro has fallen 0.8
percent.