Could the bears take over Glu Mobile Inc. (NASDAQ: GLUU) ?

Could the bears take over Glu Mobile Inc. (NASDAQ: GLUU) ?

Todays object of technical analysis is Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU). After one does a thorough job of checking for chinks in the armor on the fundamental side, the work of due diligence is only just beginning. The next step is to make sure the technical character of the chart matches the story in an advantageous way. We will look at some of the key points in that analysis today for GLUU.

First off, when looking at the overall directional impact of recent money flows, we will use the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing.

In this case, for GLUU, that adds up to a bullish designation, which suggests that flows have been working in an overall positive direction on the chart. With that established, the question now turns to whether or not key indicators suggest the action has pushed too far too fast, leading to a statistically likely mean-reversion probability going forward.

For that, we rely on our key overbought/oversold oscillators. There are many out there, but we prefer the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. For both of these measures, if we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For GLUU, the 14-day RSI shows a score of 67.33%, while the 20-day fast stochastic shows a score of 71.84%.

From there, we want to next turn our attention to relative performance and volatility scoring, or Beta. Glu Mobile Inc. has moved +0.41 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 44.64.

This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta. In addition, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 41.96% (as indicated by taking the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period). Furthermore, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of the 20-day moving average grants another key view into relative volatility scoring. By that measure, we reach a score of 3.5%.

That brings us neatly to an examination of key levels of support and resistance on the chart. For this, we generally bias toward range markets, fib levels, and moving averages. In any of these cases, its important to understand that the concept of support and resistance is a bit like what we might call social gravity. Its a game theory concept. Its the point where people assume other people will be acting.

Keynes called this type of logic the beauty contest. The idea is based on a fictional newspaper contest in which people are asked to pick which of a series of pictures of womens faces will be the most popular picks for most beautiful. Given that the winner will be someone who guesses what other people picked the most, the goal has nothing to do with picking the most beautiful face. It is figuring out which picture the most other people will think the most other people will think is the most beautiful. This is called recursive logic. And it forms the basis for key support and resistance in markets as well.

In short, popular meeting points on the chart tend to be established either where they have been before (range extremes), or at key Fibonacci levels or moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $4.00 sits at $3.13. GLUU also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 2.64.

Lastly, we need to quickly cover relative volume. Here, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing weak relative volume, which indicates lack of interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Alphabet Inc. Cl C (NASDAQ: GOOG) in a temporary turn?

Well-rounded due diligence on a stock should take into account a basic analysis of core company trends such as top-line and bottom-line performance, margins, analyst views, cash flows, and overall balance sheet health. But that’s not all. One must also take a dispassionate, professional survey of a stocks technical characteristics.

For that, we must turn to the chart. Today?s object of technical analysis is Alphabet Inc. Cl C (GOOG).

We will start our analysis by examining overall direction of trend. In the most basic sense, we can see that GOOG has been working in a bearish posture on a larger timeframe, as indicated by the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing. As noted, for GOOG, that adds up to a bearish designation the main point being that we have money flows leaning in a generally negative direction for the stock.

Next, we will turn to our analysis of the primary oscillating indicators to assess the degree to which the stock is stretched in its movement at present. The key tools for this analysis are the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. In each case, the point is to measure overbought or oversold behavior ie, whether the stock has gone too far too fast in one direction or the other. If we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For GOOG, we can see that our 14-day RSI shows a score of 57.61%, while the 20-day fast stochastic reports a score of 59.70%.

Next, we will turn to key levels of interest on the chart, with an emphasis on Fibonacci retrace points, range extremes, and major moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week low of $803.37 sits at $949.87. GOOG also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 993.45.

We also want to look at relative performance and overall volatility scoring to understand value and risk in play. GOOG has moved $-41.48 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 10.15%. This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta.

Similarly, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 37.97%. To get that score, one has to take the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. On a more basic level, one might look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average. That measure gives us a volatility score of 2454%.

Finally, we?ve spent some time looking at price as a factor in many forms and from many angles. But what about volume? Notably, many chartists see volume as more indicative for conviction in bearing or pattern than price measures, averages, or oscillators. Volume records the true degree of participation involved in a stock. If price pattern is like a word written on a word processor, volume is like the font size and punctuation. In this case, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing strong relative volume, which indicates interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

That wraps up todays analysis, but we will be sure to check back on this stock again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Zynga Inc. Cl A (NASDAQ: ZNGA) in a temporary turn?

Well-rounded due diligence on a stock should take into account a basic analysis of core company trends such as top-line and bottom-line performance, margins, analyst views, cash flows, and overall balance sheet health. But that’s not all. One must also take a dispassionate, professional survey of a stocks technical characteristics.

For that, we must turn to the chart. Today?s object of technical analysis is Zynga Inc. Cl A (ZNGA).

We will start our analysis by examining overall direction of trend. In the most basic sense, we can see that ZNGA has been working in a bullish posture on a larger timeframe, as indicated by the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing. As noted, for ZNGA, that adds up to a bullish designation the main point being that we have money flows leaning in a generally positive direction for the stock.

Next, we will turn to our analysis of the primary oscillating indicators to assess the degree to which the stock is stretched in its movement at present. The key tools for this analysis are the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day fast stochastic. In each case, the point is to measure overbought or oversold behavior ie, whether the stock has gone too far too fast in one direction or the other. If we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For ZNGA, we can see that our 14-day RSI shows a score of 49.44%, while the 20-day fast stochastic reports a score of 59.60%.

Next, we will turn to key levels of interest on the chart, with an emphasis on Fibonacci retrace points, range extremes, and major moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $4.34 sits at $3.69. ZNGA also has additional resistance above at the stocks 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 3.73.

We also want to look at relative performance and overall volatility scoring to understand value and risk in play. ZNGA has moved $-0.10 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by 12.28%. This movement has come on a less volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stocks 36-month beta.

Similarly, we can see that the stocks recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 40.07%. To get that score, one has to take the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period. On a more basic level, one might look at the 20-day ATR as a percentage of its 20-day moving average. That measure gives us a volatility score of 3.63%.

Finally, we?ve spent some time looking at price as a factor in many forms and from many angles. But what about volume? Notably, many chartists see volume as more indicative for conviction in bearing or pattern than price measures, averages, or oscillators. Volume records the true degree of participation involved in a stock. If price pattern is like a word written on a word processor, volume is like the font size and punctuation. In this case, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing strong relative volume, which indicates interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

That wraps up todays analysis, but we will be sure to check back on this stock again soon.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE

Twitter Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) : Checking the Books and Data

Today?s object of technical analysis is Twitter, Inc. (TWTR). After one does a thorough job of checking for chinks in the armor on the fundamental side, the work of due diligence is only just beginning. The next step is to make sure the technical character of the chart matches the story in an advantageous way. We will look at some of the key points in that analysis today for TWTR.

First off, when looking at the overall directional impact of recent money flows, we will use the relative positioning of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In other words, if the 50-day moving average is trading above the 200-day, it is traditionally seen as a bullish chart trend. Conversely, if the 50-day moving average is trading below the 200-day, it is traditionally labeled a bearish trend or bearing.

In this case, for TWTR, that adds up to a bullish designation, which suggests that flows have been working in an overall positive direction on the chart. With that established, the question now turns to whether or not key indicators suggest the action has pushed too far too fast, leading to a statistically likely mean-reversion probability going forward.

For that, we rely on our key overbought/oversold oscillators. There are many out there, but we prefer the 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the 20-day ?fast stochastic?. For both of these measures, if we see a score above 75 (overbought) or below 25 (oversold), history suggests one is wise to expect some reversion to the mean. For TWTR, the 14-day RSI shows a score of 74.87%, while the 20-day fast stochastic shows a score of 86.65%.

From there, we want to next turn our attention to relative performance and volatility scoring, or Beta. Twitter, Inc. has moved +11.16 over the past month or so. Over the trailing 100 days, the stock is outperforming the S&P 500 by 90.73.

This movement has come on a more volatile bearing from one day to the next relative to the broader market, according to the stock?s 36-month beta. In addition, we can see that the stock?s recent action has come on a historical volatility score of 65.47% (as indicated by taking the standard deviation of returns for a random trading input assuming buying the stock at a given average price during the specified period). Furthermore, the 20-day ATR as a percentage of the 20-day moving average grants another key view into relative volatility scoring. By that measure, we reach a score of 5.27%.

That brings us neatly to an examination of key levels of support and resistance on the chart. For this, we generally bias toward range markets, fib levels, and moving averages. In any of these cases, it?s important to understand that the concept of support and resistance is a bit like what we might call ?social gravity?. It?s a game theory concept. It?s the point where people assume other people will be acting.

Keynes called this type of logic the beauty contest. The idea is based on a fictional newspaper contest in which people are asked to pick which of a series of pictures of women?s faces will be the most popular picks for ?most beautiful?. Given that the winner will be someone who guesses what other people picked the most, the goal has nothing to do with picking the most beautiful face. It is figuring out which picture the most other people will think the most other people will think is the most beautiful. This is called ?recursive logic?. And it forms the basis for key support and resistance in markets as well.

In short, popular meeting points on the chart tend to be established either where they have been before (range extremes), or at key Fibonacci levels or moving averages. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-week high of $35.00 sits at $27.02. TWTR also has additional resistance above at the stock?s 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $ 20.13.

Lastly, we need to quickly cover relative volume. Here, we want to examine relative volume measures to get a feel for interest in the stock of late. Right now, this stock has been showing strong relative volume, which indicates interest among those making a market for shares of the stock, and that should be seen as a key factor in drawing conclusions about your level of interest as well.

DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of argusjournal.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please click HERE