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Ryan Knaus

The Daily Dose

Dose: Matchups by the Numbers

We're entering a six-day hiatus during the All-Star break, and in lieu of a typical Dose I'm substituting a statistical analysis showing which teams yield the most/least fantasy value to their opponents. In other words, if you play in an eight-cat or nine-cat league (roto or head-to-head) this column, and the accompanying spreadsheet, will reveal the best and worst matchups for your players on a given night. Anyone playing daily fantasy sports leagues should also find this very useful as a predictive tool, as I break down the teams you want to target or avoid on a category-by-category basis.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $70,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Tuesday night's games - the first games after All-Star Break. It's $25 to join and first prize is $9,000. Starts at 7pm ET on Tuesday. Here's the FanDuel link.

This column should be familiar to anyone who has read my 'Numbers Game'columns (which focused on individual players) or my 'Points League Primer' (which focused on teams). Drop me a line on Twitter or via email if you have any questions, with the understanding that my 'methodology' is home-brewed and I'm not a statistician.

I encourage anyone reading this to explore the spreadsheet from which the following information has been culled. It's my original creation and it took quite a while to compile, but you're free to use it however you please. If you want the original Excel file just drop me a note with your email address via Direct Message on Twitter. Without further ado, here is the 'summary' view of my spreadsheet (cumulative nine-category values):

As became obvious when I ran a similar analysis for three different 'points league' scoring systems, the 76ers are by far the best team to face in fantasy leagues. The Pacers, meanwhile, are easily the worst team to face. This graph is jumbled but the point isn't to read every team name individually -- just notice how far away the outliers are from the 20-24 teams all huddled around the mid-point.

Finally, here is a quick chart which I have actually printed out for my own personal reference. It displays the top-five 'best' and 'worst' teams to face if you're targeting a specific category (it's formatted better in the actual spreadsheet).

Best (You want to play them)

Worst (You want to avoid them)

Points

Philadelphia 76ers (Best)

Charlotte Bobcats

Los Angeles Lakers

Toronto Raptors

Denver Nuggets

Memphis Grizzlies

Portland Trail Blazers

Chicago Bulls

Sacramento Kings

Indiana Pacers (Worst)

3-pointers

Philadelphia 76ers

Chicago Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers

Boston Celtics

Miami Heat

Phoenix Suns

New York Knicks

Portland Trail Blazers

Milwaukee Bucks

Indiana Pacers

FG Percentage

Minnesota Timberwolves

Houston Rockets

Detroit Pistons

Golden State Warriors

Philadelphia 76ers

Chicago Bulls

Sacramento Kings

Oklahoma City Thunder

Utah Jazz

Indiana Pacers

FT Attempts

New Orleans Pelicans

Atlanta Hawks

Philadelphia 76ers

Charlotte Bobcats

Phoenix Suns

San Antonio Spurs

Sacramento Kings

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Rebounds

Los Angeles Lakers

Chicago Bulls

Philadelphia 76ers

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando Magic

Miami Heat

Charlotte Bobcats

Memphis Grizzlies

Assists

Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies

Cleveland Cavaliers

Golden State Warriors

Detroit Pistons

New York Knicks

Los Angeles Clippers

Indiana Pacers

Steals

Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Philadelphia 76ers

Los Angeles Clippers

Detroit Pistons

Memphis Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors

Charlotte Bobcats

Houston Rockets

New York Knicks

Blocks

Philadelphia 76ers

Portland Trail Blazers

Chicago Bulls

Dallas Mavericks

Cleveland Cavaliers

New York Knicks

New Orleans Pelicans

Los Angeles Clippers

Orlando Magic

Miami Heat

Turnovers

Portland Trail Blazers

Detroit Pistons

Utah Jazz

Minnesota Timberwolves

Los Angeles Lakers

Washington Wizards

Denver Nuggets

Philadelphia 76ers

Charlotte Bobcats

Miami Heat

A few quick notes...I've assigned a 'score' to each team in the nine primary fantasy categories based upon standard deviations, not simply league averages or ranks. This yields a much more accurate and robust picture of actual values. I accounted for free throw attempts without including any measure of free throw percentages because although some arenas may cause opponents to miss more frequently (awkward lighting, loud fans, balloon promotions, etc.) it seemed unwise to factor that into the equation. For field goals I have weighted attempts and percentages (for more on my approach read this). Also, note that these numbers are valid for every game played through Feb. 12, so they do not include Thursday's two-game slate in which the Bulls thumped the visiting Nets, and the Thunder rode a 43-point night from Kevin Durant to steal a road win vs. the Lakers.

I also updated my schedule grid this morning so that it only reflects the remaining nine weeks in the schedule. I may combine these team 'values' with a team-by-team ROS schedule analysis, which would result in very advanced strength-of-schedule ratings, so check back next week in case I find the time to pull that off. In the meantime, enjoy the All-Star festivities!

We're entering a six-day hiatus during the All-Star break, and in lieu of a typical Dose I'm substituting a statistical analysis showing which teams yield the most/least fantasy value to their opponents. In other words, if you play in an eight-cat or nine-cat league (roto or head-to-head) this column, and the accompanying spreadsheet, will reveal the best and worst matchups for your players on a given night. Anyone playing daily fantasy sports leagues should also find this very useful as a predictive tool, as I break down the teams you want to target or avoid on a category-by-category basis.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $70,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Tuesday night's games - the first games after All-Star Break. It's $25 to join and first prize is $9,000. Starts at 7pm ET on Tuesday. Here's the FanDuel link.

This column should be familiar to anyone who has read my 'Numbers Game'columns (which focused on individual players) or my 'Points League Primer' (which focused on teams). Drop me a line on Twitter or via email if you have any questions, with the understanding that my 'methodology' is home-brewed and I'm not a statistician.

I encourage anyone reading this to explore the spreadsheet from which the following information has been culled. It's my original creation and it took quite a while to compile, but you're free to use it however you please. If you want the original Excel file just drop me a note with your email address via Direct Message on Twitter. Without further ado, here is the 'summary' view of my spreadsheet (cumulative nine-category values):

As became obvious when I ran a similar analysis for three different 'points league' scoring systems, the 76ers are by far the best team to face in fantasy leagues. The Pacers, meanwhile, are easily the worst team to face. This graph is jumbled but the point isn't to read every team name individually -- just notice how far away the outliers are from the 20-24 teams all huddled around the mid-point.

Finally, here is a quick chart which I have actually printed out for my own personal reference. It displays the top-five 'best' and 'worst' teams to face if you're targeting a specific category (it's formatted better in the actual spreadsheet).

Best (You want to play them)

Worst (You want to avoid them)

Points

Philadelphia 76ers (Best)

Charlotte Bobcats

Los Angeles Lakers

Toronto Raptors

Denver Nuggets

Memphis Grizzlies

Portland Trail Blazers

Chicago Bulls

Sacramento Kings

Indiana Pacers (Worst)

3-pointers

Philadelphia 76ers

Chicago Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers

Boston Celtics

Miami Heat

Phoenix Suns

New York Knicks

Portland Trail Blazers

Milwaukee Bucks

Indiana Pacers

FG Percentage

Minnesota Timberwolves

Houston Rockets

Detroit Pistons

Golden State Warriors

Philadelphia 76ers

Chicago Bulls

Sacramento Kings

Oklahoma City Thunder

Utah Jazz

Indiana Pacers

FT Attempts

New Orleans Pelicans

Atlanta Hawks

Philadelphia 76ers

Charlotte Bobcats

Phoenix Suns

San Antonio Spurs

Sacramento Kings

Chicago Bulls

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Rebounds

Los Angeles Lakers

Chicago Bulls

Philadelphia 76ers

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando Magic

Miami Heat

Charlotte Bobcats

Memphis Grizzlies

Assists

Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis Grizzlies

Cleveland Cavaliers

Golden State Warriors

Detroit Pistons

New York Knicks

Los Angeles Clippers

Indiana Pacers

Steals

Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Philadelphia 76ers

Los Angeles Clippers

Detroit Pistons

Memphis Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors

Charlotte Bobcats

Houston Rockets

New York Knicks

Blocks

Philadelphia 76ers

Portland Trail Blazers

Chicago Bulls

Dallas Mavericks

Cleveland Cavaliers

New York Knicks

New Orleans Pelicans

Los Angeles Clippers

Orlando Magic

Miami Heat

Turnovers

Portland Trail Blazers

Detroit Pistons

Utah Jazz

Minnesota Timberwolves

Los Angeles Lakers

Washington Wizards

Denver Nuggets

Philadelphia 76ers

Charlotte Bobcats

Miami Heat

A few quick notes...I've assigned a 'score' to each team in the nine primary fantasy categories based upon standard deviations, not simply league averages or ranks. This yields a much more accurate and robust picture of actual values. I accounted for free throw attempts without including any measure of free throw percentages because although some arenas may cause opponents to miss more frequently (awkward lighting, loud fans, balloon promotions, etc.) it seemed unwise to factor that into the equation. For field goals I have weighted attempts and percentages (for more on my approach read this). Also, note that these numbers are valid for every game played through Feb. 12, so they do not include Thursday's two-game slate in which the Bulls thumped the visiting Nets, and the Thunder rode a 43-point night from Kevin Durant to steal a road win vs. the Lakers.

I also updated my schedule grid this morning so that it only reflects the remaining nine weeks in the schedule. I may combine these team 'values' with a team-by-team ROS schedule analysis, which would result in very advanced strength-of-schedule ratings, so check back next week in case I find the time to pull that off. In the meantime, enjoy the All-Star festivities!

Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.Email :Ryan Knaus