US and the rest

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Edward Morgan

Your original arguments seemed to focus on the collapse of the US, comparing it to that of the USSR, but most of what you have been suggesting lately seems to spill much further afield, proposing the collapse of the West and possibly of the whole of society. Could you clarify if these are all part of the same argument or if you do to some extent think of them separately. Would the former inevitably lead to the latter? After all, the world losing the USSR was, economically speaking, like a man losing a spleen or kidney, while losing the US would be like losing a heart. Or isn't it? (I'm from the UK, by the way). Thank you.

Monday 25 July 2011 08:53:44 am

Dmitry Orlov

The original inspiration for my work came from my very strong sense that the US is very much like the USSR, had followed the same trajectory of unbounded growth and collapse, and will collapse similarly, except for timing. I expanded this insight into a full-blown book-length comparison, which allowed me to make some predictions, which, in turn, have turned out to be quite accurate in light of subsequent events. My superpower collapse method vindicated, I've moved on to other things.

I do think that there is a dramatic distinction between the US and the rest of the world (more so than between all the other "special cases" such as EU, BRIC, etc., put together). If the US were to vanish from the world stage, so would the world's largest military, allowing the entire planet to breathe a sigh of relief and to demilitarize to a large extent. (Modern military power is largely powerless against popular insurgencies armed with AK's, RPGs and IEDs — something that American military types are too stupid and craven to recognize.) If the US was to spontaneously disappear, 25% of energy resources would suddenly become available to the world, extending the horizon for economically productive fossil energy use by perhaps as much as a decade, and giving other countries a chance to retool for an energy-scarce future. If the US were to go away, a large market for Chinese-manufactured goods would vanish, idling a lot of Chinese industrial capacity, which is all fueled by coal-burning, thus slowing carbon dioxide emissions somewhat. If the US were to disappear, the global debt pyramid would be flattened, a great deal of ephemeral, paper wealth would evaporate, and people around the world would be able to work without having to pay tribute to the global financial kleptocracy. If the US were to disappear, Israel would quickly vanish as well, its population fleeing back to Russia, or to New Jersey or what have you, and there would finally be peace in the Middle East. All good things, wouldn't you say?