Mr Popular

Who would have thought three months ago on his appointment as prime minister that the relatively unknown Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz would now be soaring in opinion polls as Poland’s most popular politician?

Critics abroad assumed that the right-wing Catholic views of the 46-year-old former teacher, including the belief that homosexuality is "unnatural", would embarrass him. They believed he would not be able to represent Poland on the international stage. They assumed he would have no power but would have his strings pulled from behind the scenes. They have been proved wrong on all counts.

Well, nearly. One of the other assumptions made about Marcinkiewicz's government was that it would not last. He now faces a deadline of 1 February to get his budget past a hostile parliament, where his Law and Justice Party (PiS) is in a minority. If the government cannot forge a working coalition on this issue, new elections will be called, most probably in April.

Despite his popularity, Marcinkiewicz and the PiS have not had an easy time of it since they were voted the largest party in last September's elections. "The elections were a surprise outcome and they [the PiS] were not prepared for running the country themselves or even being the senior partner in a coalition," says Piotr Kaczynski, EU analyst in the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw.

Marcinkiewicz was plucked out of obscurity by party leaders who assumed their coalition partners would be the other main party, the Civic Platform (PO). "He's pragmatic, knows the economy well, is really conservative on the one hand but economically liberal on the other and was the best person to make bridges to the PO," says Warsaw-based journalist Jacek Zakowski. His role as prime minister is also complicated by the fact that the man who everyone assumed would hold the job, PiS chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski, stood aside because his twin brother Lech was about to contest the presidential elections.

But a coalition with the PO was not to be, as became apparent only after weeks of wrangling, and Marcinkiewicz was forced to seek support in parliament from various parties, including the right-wing League of Polish Families and the left-leaning Self-Defence Party. By pleasing none of them the government finds itself facing the present crisis over its budget.

The government also found itself on the back foot over its cabinet postings. While it had firm policies on law and order, fighting corruption and supporting the social system, its economic agenda was weak. "Because they were totally unprepared to take responsibility they had to find people very quickly," says Zakowski. As a result mistakes were made.

First there were comments from Finance Minister Teresa Lubinska who spoke out against foreign-owned supermarkets and specifically targeted UK giant Tesco. She stepped down in early January after sending markets fluttering and was replaced by market-friendly Zyta Gilowska who is a member of the PO and favours a liberal economic agenda of tax cuts and lower spending. "Poland demands further reaching reforms and a faster economic growth rate," was how Marcinkiewicz explained the reshuffle.

Then there was the resignation of the treasury minister Andrzej Mikosz after it was alleged in the media that his wife had given a loan to a stock trader who was being investigated for improper dealing.

One of the biggest boosts to the prime minister's standing came in December when he backed France in opposing a British draft proposal for the EU budget which would have seen the portion set aside for new member states significantly reduced. It was a gamble for a country which until then had positioned itself along with Britain as a staunch ally of the US in Europe, much to the disgust of France and Germany. But the gamble paid off and in the process Poland not only secured its rightful slice of EU funds as the largest of the accession states, it showed itself capable of being the leader among these states, argues Piotr Kaczynski.

Where Marcinkiewicz's political genius lies is in his ability to ride good-news situations such as this and step back from the bad ones. "He's not in the media when he could be perceived negatively," says Kaczynski. "He's in the media when he's talking about no higher taxes for oil, for a decision to decrease prices or for a new law to support pregnant women. But he's not in the media to discuss problems over banking mergers."

He has also managed to stay out of the current political wrangling with the other parties and is seen to be just getting on with the job of running the country, says Krzysztof Bobinski, an analyst in Warsaw.

Though he was virtually unknown when he came to the prime minister's post, he was not politically immature.

In 1989 he helped found the Christian-National Union party, leaving it in February 2001 and founding the Right-Wing Alliance party which eventually merged with the Kaczynski brothers' party.

In 1992 he was appointed deputy minister of education in the government of Hanna Suchocka where he reportedly opposed sex education in schools. In 1999-2000 he was adviser to the then prime minister Jerzy Buzek.

He keeps his more controversial Catholic views out of the public eye, though he and other members of the PiS frequent the airwaves of the popular Catholic right-wing Radio Maryja and TV station Trwam, which are listened to and watched by many of their supporters.

Marcinkiewicz, who is from the small western town of Gorzow Wielkopolski, is married with four children. His interests include basketball and he often gets snapped shooting a few hoops with children and players.

"He comes across as dependable," says Bobinski. "He's a former physics teacher so he speaks very slowly and clearly. He's not very exciting and comes across as quite dull and boring."

"He is pretty shy, well educated from the 1980s and would have studied underground about modern thought and philosophy. But like many Polish politicians he covered global politics and trends up to the '80s and stopped after that," says Zakowski.

Marcinkiewicz's political survival now depends on the outcome of a probable election. If the PiS do well, he may be back as prime minister. "He was put forward by the party as a candidate but they didn't believe he would do such a good job," says Andrzej Adamczyk, international secretary of Solidarity trade union.

"He is a popular man in Poland and once they have someone who is popular they tend to keep them."

The CV

1959: Born, Gorzow Wielkopolski

1984: Graduated from University of Wroclaw

1982-89: Physics and mathematics teacher in elementary school in Gorzow Wielkopolski

1989: Co-founded Christian-National Union party

1992-93: Deputy minister of education

1997: First elected member of Polish parliament

1999-2000: Head of political cabinet of then prime minister Jerzy Buzek