Friday, July 29, 2011

Finding relief

The Twins
most glaring roster deficiency was exposed late in the game on Thursday night.

With two outs
in the bottom of the eighth and the Rangers leading by a run, Josh Hamilton
laced a triple that split Ben Revere and Jason Kubel. Due to the overuse of the
other arms (Capps, Nathan, Burnett, etc), the left-handed Phil Dumatrait, a
minor league free agent that had spent the bulk of the season in Rochester,
would be left to face the Rangers right-handed delegates.

Dumatrait quickly
fell behind Michael Young – who was two-for-three on the night – and the Twins called
a mound conference and made the decision to put Young on first to pitch to the
dangerous Nelson Cruz, who was oh-for-the-game. The prevailing logic was that
Young was swinging a hot bat while Cruz was ice cold. This would have been the
perfect time for Ron Gardenhire to bring in his lights-out,
death-to-same-sided-hitters right-hander out of the ‘pen.

The problem
is there is no lights-out right-handed reliever.

Alex Burnett
has ranged from brutal mess-to-adequate while Anthony Swarzak has been able to
chew through multiple innings when need. Neither is ideal during those high
leverage innings in the latter third of the game. Matt Capps now serves as the
right-handed set-up man but given his heavy usage in the beginning of the season
(which may have
led to his poor performance) the Twins would be better served curtailing
his deployment in the second-half. All three had thrown recently too. This left
Dumatrait to battle Cruz.

With the non-waiver
trade deadline a little over 48 hours away, let’s take a look at some of the
arms the Twins have been associated with and some arms that they are not
currently linked to but, for the sake of fiscal responsibility, should be considering:

Drew Storen (WAS):

He has got
about everything you could want – youth, a power arm, ability to get a
strikeout and club-controlled paychecks for several years. Of course, that
doesn’t come cheap. The Nationals have reportedly taken a shine to Denard Span,
who himself has an extremely team-friendly contract himself while playing a
coveted up-the-middle position, and even Washington has changed their minds on
whether or not Storen
is on the trading block.

While other analysts
have been giddy over his age, cost control and potential to be the “closer of
the future”, I am a bit more apprehensive of his mechanics and what that means
for his health. Similar to his rehabbing
teammate Stephen Strasberg, Storen also throws with the “inverted w” arm action.
As Strasberg’s injury has brought the potential dangers of throwing with an
inverted w to the forefront, there has been a laundry list of pitchers who use
this method that ultimately wound up with UCL problems.

To be sure,
injury potential exists for all pitchers. After all, throwing overhand is
against the body’s natural biomechanics. Even guys who have impeccable conventional
mechanics like Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker will inevitably having elbow
issues. It’s just the nature of pitching. Then there are guys that carry around
with them big red flags – like Storen’s arm
action. If you are a team that plans to invest heavily in a player by
committing one of your best young position players, you would want confidence
that his UCL isn’t going to snap in his second year.

Unless the
Twins find a way to pry Storen away without surrendering an everyday player
like Span or a top prospect, the team would be advised to move along for now.

Koji Uehara (BAL):

Uehara’s
contract and Baltimore’s realistic asking price - the Orioles recognize that
his age (36) and injury history tarnish his otherwise excellent resume - has
made the Japanese reliever a highly desired target at the deadline.

In the past
two seasons, Uehara has gone all yakuza
on opponents. His 8.77 strikeouts-to-walks ratio is second only to Edward
Mujica. His 33.5% strikeout rate is the fourth-highest in baseball. His 14.9% swinging
strike rate is the fifth-highest. His 0.82 WHIP tops all relievers in that
time. This is an impressive track record.

What’s more
is that Uehara’s contract would also provide the Twins with some bullpen
assistance in 2012. The Orioles gave Uehara an incentive-laden deal which
stated if the reliever pitched in 50 games or finished 25, his option for $4
million in ’12 will be triggered. Given the uncertainty with Matt Capps a free
agent and Joe Nathan’s expensive option looming, Uehara would give the Twins a
financially reasonable bullpen arm that has the potential to close if need be.

Rafael Betancourt (COL):

Like Uehara,
Betancourt is a 36-year-old reliever that throws strikes. Betancourt also finds
himself right behind Uehara’s 8.77 strikeouts-to-walks ratio with a very good
8.25, the third-highest mark in that category. He shuts down right-handed
hitters (20.25 K/BB and .210 average since ’10) which would make him welcomed
in the Twins ‘pen, however, unlike Uehara, opponents have an easier time making
solid contact leading to a very high 15 home runs allowed (one more than Matt
Capps). Part of it is due to playing in the thin Rocky Mountain air but it is a
trait that has followed him over from his days in the smog-filled air of
Cleveland.

If the Twins
trade for Betancourt, he brings along the potential of two additional years as
he is owed $4 million next season with a mutual option for $4.25 million in
2013 (that comes with a $25,000 buyout that would likely be exercised).

Matt Lindstrom (COL):

The one-time closer
for the Marlins and Astros, the Rockies signed Matt Lindstrom to set-up Huston
Street. Armed with a 95-plus mile per hour fastball complemented by a slider,
you expect Lindstrom to be a strikeout artist but his K-rate is below the
league average. He has a herky-jerky
motion which disrupts timing but that fastball comes in extremely straight.
On the plus side, Lindstrom has allowed just one home run despite playing in
Colorado. It’s possible that if the
Twins were to acquire him, they may be able transform him just like they did
Jesse Crain.

He’s younger
than the aforementioned Uehara and Betancourt and also signed for multiple
seasons. Lindstrom’s contract calls for $3.6 million in 2012 and an option for
$4 million in 2013 which may be overpaying for that “proven” label.

Wilton Lopez (HOU):

The Astros
grabbed Lopez in a waiver claim from San Diego and have received more than the
minimal price they paid to obtain him back in 2009. The 26-year-old
reliever induces a ton of groundballs (56.7% groundball rate) and is
particularly effective against right-handed hitters. His strikeout-to-walk
ratio (6.90) is fifth-best among relievers since the start of 2010 while
limiting them to a sub-1.00 WHIP.

As the NL
Central doormat, the Astros are sellers and it is likely Lopez – who hasn’t
been tied to any rumors up to this point – might be available for a
substantially lower cost than any of the other names on this list. He isn’t
dominating but his skills against righties would add depth to the Twins
bullpen.

Brad Ziegler (OAK):

You want a
ground ball? Brad Ziegler will get you your friggin’ ground ball. So far this
season, hitters have beaten the ball into the earth over 70% of the time. This
sort of skill set is perfect for when there are fewer than two outs, a runner
on first and a right-hander up. You can already mark the “6-4-3” on your
scorecard in advance.

Like most
side-winding types, Ziegler exhibits a significant platoon split, getting
slapped around by lefties. Nevertheless, for situational use, Ziegler is one of
the best. He’s making a $1.25 million this season which means the Twins would
owe him less than $1 million for his services but he is about to hit his first
year of arbitration this winter which will spike his earnings up.

Billy Beane,
GM of the A’s, operates like he is a vendor within a Turkish Bazaar, buying and
selling and finagling all over the place. He recognizes his team is in sell
mode and has actually made it known that some of his pieces, like Ziegler, can
be had
for a reasonable amount. Ziegler would be a very functional component to
the relief staff.

As a recent article
in ESPN the Magazine pointed out, teams typically trade with teams that they
have familiarity with. In the cases of Washington, Baltimore, Oakland and
Colorado, the Twins have had recent interaction with them (although we might
want to forget the outcomes of the Washington-Baltimore deals). This may
increase the likelihood of a transaction happening between those clubs as
opposed to forging ground to get Lopez in Houston or another team.

The Twins are
focused on ensuring whatever move they make not only helps this season but also
has an impact for next year – which is why the majority of these moves make
sense as are all are available in 2012.

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"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."