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Tuesday, 26 April 2011

The Dollar, Gold and Silver: A 20-Year Perspective

April 25, 2011

Over the weekend I posted brief item entitled The Dollar and Gold triggered by a couple of articles at the WSJ (Gold and Dollar). Here is the chart I created to illustrate the highly inverse Dollar-Gold correlation.

I received several emails requesting a similar chart for Silver. Here, courtesy of my Stockcharts.com subscription (which gives me access to 20 years of data) is the same overlay with the addition of Silver.

Over the past nine years Gold and Silver have had approximately the same gain, but the paths have been rather different, with Gold the more orderly of the two. Guessing the trajectory of precious metals is just that — a guess. There are so many significant unknowns: the end of QE2, the possible advent of a QE3, a political showdown over the debt ceiling, a potential inflationary spike, EU sovereign debt issues, to mention some of the most obvious.

The accelerating contour of Silver over the past several months does have bit of a bubble look. But we're living in highly uncertain times, and the speed and depth of the Silver correction, when it inevitably comes, may or may not create a peak that clearly passes as a bubble.