The problem is, somebody has got to be wrong. That's because the Services and Manufacturing ISM both had Employment expanding, but Nonfarm payrolls were below expectations. Either respondents' optimism is overdone on the ISM reports, or Nonfarm payrolls should rise.

After I did my report, Michael O'Rourke at Jones Trading messaged me to say that, in his opinion, "nonfarm payrolls is the outlier." Mike noted that he had put a note out to clients last night addressing this issue, concluding that "over the past twenty years, July Nonfarm Payrolls have experienced upward revisions 80% of the time from the 1st to the 3rd reading."