Will suburbs where Trump struggled come through for Gov. Scott Walker in 2018 race?

Washington Bureau Chief Craig Gilbert talked to voters in three of Wisconsin’s most Republican counties, Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington.

The Grand Parade highlights the Cedarburg Winter Festival in Ozaukee County, which had the second-highest turnout rate in country in the 2014 mid-term election. Like a number of other well-to-do suburbs, Cedarburg gave Republican Scott Walker a much bigger victory margin for governor in 2014 (34 points) than it did Republican Donald Trump for president in 2016 (8 points).(Photo: Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

WEST BEND - This community 40 miles northwest of Milwaukee has voted three times for Scott Walker by colossal margins.

But in a special election for state Assembly last month, it did something almost unheard of.

West Bend voted Democratic.

Was it a suburban alarm bell for the GOP? Or a mere blip?

The battle for the suburbs is central to the 2018 election, thanks largely to President Donald Trump's weakness among college-educated voters. But roughly eight months out, the political signposts often seem in conflict with other.

Republicans can take hope from a growing economy and improving perceptions of the party's end-of-the-year federal tax cut.

But Democrats are buoyed by their strong performance in special elections around the country — including in two Republican-leaning legislative districts in Wisconsin last month.

Part of an ongoing series: Wisconsin in the age of Trump.

Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel is on a fellowship established through Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. The fellowship is aimed at providing support for journalism projects on issues of civic importance. All the work is done under the direction of Journal Sentinel editors.

Part of an ongoing series: State of Flux | Wisconsin in the age of Trump.

Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel is on a fellowship established through Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. The fellowship is aimed at providing support for journalism projects on issues of civic importance. All the work is done under the direction of Journal Sentinel editors.

“There are real forces that are quite discernible, but they are pointing in different directions,” said Charles Franklin, professor and pollster for the Marquette Law School.

Signs abound that Trump is a political drag on his party among suburbanites, especially those with college degrees.

But in Wisconsin, many of the same suburbs where Trump ran poorly in 2016 have a robust history of support for Gov. Scott Walker, who heads the GOP ticket this fall.

If you used Trump’s performance as a guide, you would expect Republicans to struggle in these communities. If you used Walker’s performance (and he's the one on the ballot), you’d expect them to flourish.

Nowhere is that dichotomy sharper than in the state’s biggest concentration of suburban votes, the conservative “WOW” counties north and west of Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington). This is some of the most Republican turf in America.

In interviews this month with dozens of voters at a home improvement show, a pancake breakfast and a winter festival, there were few signs that Walker’s southeastern Wisconsin base is wobbly.

“Five out of five stars,” Mark Sheets of Ozaukee County said of the governor, characterizing his strengths as “quiet, calm leadership — walk softly and carry a big stick.”

The region is “Walker Country,” said state GOP executive director Mark Morgan. "It's an area where the Republican brand here in Wisconsin remains incredibly strong.”

But consider what messages have been sent about Trump over the past two years by the voters of this reddest region in Wisconsin.

Trump lost the WOW counties badly to Ted Cruz in the 2016 Wisconsin primary. He won them in the general election against Hillary Clinton, but by disappointing margins. He also lagged behind fellow Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.

And then there was last month’s special election for the 58th Assembly seat northwest of Milwaukee, one of the three or four most Republican districts in the entire state — one that Walker won by 49 points in 2014.

Rick Gundrum kept the seat in GOP hands. But he won by just 13 points. And the city of West Bend, the seat of the reddest county in Wisconsin (Washington), voted narrowly Democratic, something that had happened just once in the past 40 years. West Bend backed Trump in 2016 by 29 points.

“I have to assume the difference is the mood in the country about Trump. … That’s the only factor I can think of that would cause that differential between the Trump vote and the Gundrum vote,” said business executive, former journalist and West Bend resident John Torinus.

“To go into the heart of where Republicans win and come out with 50.2 percent of the vote was a shock,” said the Democratic loser in the race, Dennis Degenhardt, referring to his total in the city of West Bend.

Special elections come with big caveats, of course. Turnout was far smaller than it will be this fall.

“People just weren’t paying attention,” said Kathy Kiernan, the GOP chair for the 5th Congressional District that includes Washington County. “But I don’t think it’s bad to have a wake-up call.”

(In a race the same day that got much more attention, Republicans lost a state Senate seat in western Wisconsin, a district that includes exurbs of the Twin Cities.)

No one expects West Bend or the WOW counties to be remotely competitive this November. The more meaningful question is whether these special elections signal any slippage this fall in the immense margins the GOP normally gets from its suburban base here. That in turn could affect a close statewide race for governor or U.S. Senate.

Part of the challenge for Republicans this fall is simply matching the breathtaking numbers they have put up in these communities in recent mid-terms.

In 2014, Ozaukee County was second among all U.S. counties in turnout, based on an analysis Franklin did for this story. More than 70% of Ozaukee’s voting-age population went to the polls. Waukesha was fourth (69%) in the nation. Washington County was eighth (67%).

Generating such extreme GOP turnouts may be harder with Trump in the White House than it was when the party had Democratic President Barack Obama to run against.

“I don’t think in any way Trump will depress GOP turnout in (these) suburbs,” said Republican state Rep. Adam Neylon, whose Waukesha County Assembly district gave Walker a far bigger margin in 2014 (49 points) than it gave Trump in 2016 (24 points).

“On the flip side, I do expect higher turnout from Democrats,” Neylon said, something that could cut into GOP margins in the region.

Republican state Rep. Adam Neylon represents a Waukesha County district that voted for both Scott Walker in 2014 and Donald Trump in 2016, though Walker's victory margin was twice as big. Neylon says older men in his very Republican district are "lock solid" for Trump, but younger moms are "put off by some of (his) language and some of the focus of the agenda."(Photo: Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

While Democrats dream of a suburban wave in 2016, Republicans also have reasons for hope in the suburbs.

Those include a growing economy, a rising (though volatile) stock market, and polls showing more positive perceptions of the Republican tax cut.

Then there is Walker's election history. Trump's weakness here — underperforming in the WOW counties — is Walker's strength. In his three statewide races, he has won Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties by an average of 45 points.

No candidate for any office, including president, has ever performed better in Milwaukee’s Republican suburbs.

Given that track record, could Trump be a drag on Walker here?

There are some Republican-leaning voters in the suburbs who are so dismayed by Trump's leadership style, language and behavior that it has soured their view of the party.

Jim Wesp, a business owner in West Bend, said he was deeply bothered that Walker turned into a Trump supporter after once trying to rally opposition to Trump's nomination (an about-face made by virtually the entire GOP establishment).

“He dropped out (of the presidential primaries), stood up, and said, ‘We need to do something. This is bad.’ And then became a (Trump) supporter. You totally abandon principle! … It’s going to make it really hard for me to support Scott Walker,” said Wesp, who has voted for Walker in each of his previous races.

But this was an uncommon stance among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents interviewed for this story. Most supported Walker, and most supported Trump, though many avid Trump supporters had a lot less enthusiasm for Walker, and many avid Walker supporters had a lot less enthusiasm for Trump.

CLOSE

Craig Gilbert talks about his Lubar Fellowship analyzing Wisconsin in the age of Trump.
Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Trump's problems within his own party appear to have eased, as well. Views of Trump among WOW county voters were more positive in the dozens of interviews conducted for this story than they were in dozens of interviews conducted in the same counties on the eve of the 2016 election. That's consistent with polling showing that GOP voters have increasingly consolidated behind Trump.

At the same time, you can still find plenty of qualms here about Trump's Twitter use or language or behavior, more commonly expressed by women than by men.

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People attend the 64th annual Waukesha Rotary Pancake Festival. Waukesha County is the GOP's geographic base in Wisconsin and generated bigger vote margins for Republican Scott Walker in 2012 and 2014 than it has for any candidate for any office ever, including president. Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Families line the tables at the 64th annual Waukesha Rotary Pancake Festival. Waukesha County is the GOP's geographic base in Wisconsin and generated bigger vote margins for Republican Scott Walker in 2012 and 2014 than it has for any candidate for any office ever, including president. Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Democrat Meg Kurlinski, with her children at the Cedarburg Winter Festival, says she has been "consistently disappointed and just saddened" by President Donald Trump's rhetoric and performance in office. Her suburban community, Whitefish Bay, saw the biggest shift in a Democratic direction of any Wisconsin municipality between the last two presidential elections. Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Republican state Rep. Adam Neylon represents a Waukesha County district that voted for both Scott Walker in 2014 and Donald Trump in 2016, though Walker's victory margin was twice as big. Neylon says older men in his very Republican district are "lock solid" for Trump, but younger moms are "put off by some of (his) language and some of the focus of the agenda." Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

The Grand Parade highlights the Cedarburg Winter Festival in Ozaukee County, which had the second-highest turnout rate in country in the 2014 mid-term election. Like a number of other well-to-do suburbs, Cedarburg gave Republican Scott Walker a much bigger victory margin for governor in 2014 (34 points) than it did Republican Donald Trump for president in 2016 (8 points). Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Washington County businessman Jim Wesp voted for Gov. Scott Walker in his three previous statewide races, but has soured on the GOP, saying the party has abandoned its principles by embracing President Donald Trump and by enacting policies that will boost the federal deficit.
Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Steve Schweiss, interviewed at the Waukesha Rotary's annual pancake festival, describes himself as a conservative-leaning voter who was very unhappy with the choices for president in 2016 and is frustrated with both parties for failing to work together. Of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, he says, "There's been ups and downs (but) more ups than downs in my mind." Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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"I wish he would stay away from Twitter and social media (and) be a little more somebody you might want to look up to,” said Lori Roberts, an Oconomowoc voter who likes Walker but has mixed feelings about Trump.

“The greatest resistance to (Trump) in the end among otherwise Republican voters … has occurred among college-educated, more affluent, largely suburban voters,” said Paul Maslin, a Wisconsin-based Democrat who was the pollster for Doug Jones in his upset victory over Roy Moore in Alabama’s recent U.S. Senate race, a win partly fueled by a suburban shift away from the GOP.

Democrat Meg Kurlinski, with her children at the Cedarburg Winter Festival, says she has been "consistently disappointed and just saddened" by President Donald Trump's rhetoric and performance in office. Her suburban community, Whitefish Bay, saw the biggest shift in a Democratic direction of any Wisconsin municipality between the last two presidential elections.(Photo: Craig Gilbert / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Maslin argued the "Trump Effect" is a real problem for Walker and other GOP candidates this fall, even in the very Republican suburbs of southeastern Wisconsin.

“They can say it is still (Walker's) base and they are right. And we can say that base can very well be weakened by reactions to him and reactions to Trump and to national Republicans,” said Maslin.

Franklin said two factors tend to shield Walker from the effects of Trump's political problems in the suburbs. One is that he has a very established political identity of his own. And the other is that he has done so well in many of the same places where Trump did poorly in his two Wisconsin elections in 2016.

Well-known incumbents like Walker have “the ability to maintain their support to some degree in the face of national forces,” said Franklin. At the same time, he said, having some immunity to national forces “doesn’t mean that you’re completely immune."

Craig Gilbert is reporting an ongoing series on the shifting political landscape in Wisconsin after the state helped propel Donald Trump to the White House.