So, if you've been paying attention to the news, or perhaps your petrol pump, in the last few months you're aware of the decline in oil prices. Prices have declined by as much as 40% in the last three months, and there are fears they could decline further.

Seems this decline has gotten people across several sectors bothered, particularly since OPEC has so far declined to cut production.

So, what say you NSG? Is this drastic fall in the price of oil a good or a bad thing? A blip in a trend or a sign of things to come? How do you feel it will affect the world? How has it affected you?

Discuss.

From my standpoint the falling price of oil is a mixed bag for me. I live in an area of Scotland that, while not the centre of the oil industry, is close and can be impacted quite negatively as a result. The company I work for also has a couple of contracts with oil companies worldwide, and those may soon be thrown into doubt as a result. I do, however, feel this won't be a longterm trend but that we may be dealing with this for the majority of 2015.

On the more worldly state of things, some places that rely on oil for their budgets (Russia, Alberta, Venezuela, ect) seem to be scrambling to fix, or at least adjust, to the situation as the negative repercussions for them are felt.

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A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -Winston Churchill

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I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

Maybe it's just that the Arabs really, really hate African and American efforts to do them over with their own reserve, and since the largest Kuwaiti and Saudi oil fields basically seep oil like an spread gash, they don't have much to worry about themselves.

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

When you throw in the G20 Summit, the timing seems as if it was built up to respond to prevailing sentiments regarding the place of renewables and oils.

However, it is possible that this hasn't been thought out very carefully - or, more likely, that any such effects are peripheral. Falling oil prices could reduce the power of the oil lobbies in nations like Australia, the USA, and Russia.

That would, in turn, open up MORE investment in renewable energy spearheaded by various interest groups of disgruntled out-of-work energy engineers looking to stab their former, dying employers in the pack by throwing their lot into an infant industry which just happens to need their skills.

It's more likely, IMO, that it's a powerplay by OPEC - they might be trying to short oil and in doing so, placing themselves in a dominant market position, expecting a future drop in prices that would have been out of their hands. By driving a truck through the bottom of the market, they're crippling the future capacity of other nations to produce oil - holding on to their own market position, and actually utilizing their production capacity for a change.

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Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

I think it's more likely that they're trying to drive prices down below the point of profitability for shale oil extraction.

Farnhamia wrote:What part of the four-letter word "Rules" are you having trouble with?

I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

Ashmoria wrote:I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?

I've also heard theories it's an attempt to undermine the shale gas exploits and oil sands in N.America, and that exactly how far the price falls (which the person put at below $60 a barrel) would indicate the objective.

I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it. -Voltaire

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -Winston Churchill

Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference.-Winston Churchill

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

This was covered in The Economist magazine: the US pumping out more barrels of petrol through fracking means Saudi Arabia pressures OPEC to decline oil prices to stay competitive. Although other OPEC members desperately need more revenue and could hardly survive with lower petrol prices, such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia is trying its best to stay the market leader.

"Revisionism is nothing else than a theoretic generalisation made from the angle of the isolated capitalist. Where does this viewpoint belong theoretically if not in vulgar bourgeois economics?" Rosa Luxemburg

Ashmoria wrote:I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?

I've also heard theories it's an attempt to undermine the shale gas exploits and oil sands in N.America, and that exactly how far the price falls (which the person put at below $60 a barrel) would indicate the objective.

that could be. this price also makes alternative energy types unprofitable so its not a great idea.

im not against ruining the shale oil industry in general. I dislike this push to suck every possible bit of oil out of the ground right now instead of holding some back "for later". *shrug*

Ashmoria wrote:I think its an effort to screw Russia. what with the economic sanctions already causing the Russian economy trouble a $60/barrel oil price will put them into a depression. if they can make it last 2 years (seems doubtful) it will be devastating.

what could possibly go wrong?

This. Oil and natural gas are Russia's lifeblood, without high prices, their economy will crash.

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Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

I would actually say the conspiracy is directed at Shale Oil more than likely. If you drive the price down low enough it's no longer cost effective to Frack which is a big competitor with OPEC in the international market.

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

I would actually say the conspiracy is directed at Shale Oil more than likely. If you drive the price down low enough it's no longer cost effective to Frack which is a big competitor with OPEC in the international market.

There's a lot of business sources saying this (Reuters, The Economist, couple otehrs, though it's too late for me to provide links). It's not an unreasonable thing for OPEC to do, but I've also seen discussion of how much money the Frac'ing companies have salted away for price drops. Apparently, they can take the hit for some months before they have to start slowing down their own production.

'course some sources are also looking at Iran, Venezuela, and/or Russia as possible economic targets of Saudi wrath. The Saudis have no love for Iran, and the US governemtn might be/might have been suggesting they put pressure on Russia, even at the short-term cost of domestic oil production.

I think either reason (market share or petro-politics) is plausible, and frankly, screwing up all of them (frac'ers, other countries) while lowering my fuel price is fine with me.

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

It's actually rather commonly accepted fact that the Saudis are doing exactly this, but against shale oil, not renewable oil.

Last edited by Estva on Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Big Jim P wrote:Gas for less than $2 a gallon in some places? What's not to like?

More like what's not to fear. I'm extremely skeptical of such a drop, not to mention much of my fears align nicely to my disdain of the Sauds and OPEC.

It could be this:

Conserative Morality wrote:I'll put on my conspiracy theory hat and say that OPEC is letting prices drop in the hopes that businesses in the West will make the short term decision to lessen investment in renewables, in order that OPEC might extend its profiteering.

And it would be disastrous in the long term. Though it's more shale oil if anything.

Last edited by Imyoji on Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

What do you get when you combine pursuits of technological advancements, an appreciation and strong conservation of the natural environment, and a harmony between altruistic communitarianism and state sponsored capitalism?

What do you get when you combine pursuits of technological advancements, an appreciation and strong conservation of the natural environment, and a harmony between altruistic communitarianism and state sponsored capitalism?