Mayor Jean Quan and Oakland police chief Howard Jordan, joined parents and students for a rally at Manzanita School, before taking to the streets for the Manzanita Community Peace Walk through the neighborhood near E. 27th Street and Fruitvale, in Oakland, Ca., on Wednesday May 9, 2012.

Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle

Mayor Jean Quan and Oakland police chief Howard Jordan, joined...

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Oakland Mayor Jean Quan watches as members of the Oakland police department stand at attention during a I-580 freeway sign dedication ceremony in honor of fallen officers Sgt. Mark Dunakin, Sgt. Ervin Romans, Sgt. Daniel Sakai and Officer John Hege who died on duty in 2009 at the Police Administrative Building in Oakland, Calif. on Wednesday, March 21, 2012.

Photo: Stephen Lam, Special To The Chronicle

Oakland Mayor Jean Quan watches as members of the Oakland police...

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Police make an arrest after the suspect attacked an officer on International Boulevard, Monday February 20, 2012, in Oakland, Calif. Three weeks before a federal judge will hear arguments to decide whether Oakland should hand over its Police Department to federal authorities, attorneys for one of the parties filed a searing critique against the embattled law enforcement agency.

Photo: Lacy Atkins, The Chronicle

Police make an arrest after the suspect attacked an officer on...

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Oakland policer officers make an arrest after a chase Friday, February 17, 2012, in East Oakland, Calif. Three weeks before a federal judge will hear arguments to decide whether Oakland should hand over its Police Department to federal authorities, attorneys for one of the parties filed a searing critique against the embattled law enforcement agency.

On more than one occasion I've heard politicians dredge up the old adage "You cannot arrest your way out" of a crime problem.

In Oakland, it's apparently become city policy.

There's been a precipitous decline in arrests in Oakland - a 44 percent drop from 2008 to 2011, according to a Chronicle investigation. And even as arrests have bottomed out, the city's crime rate has climbed in each of the past two years, including an overall 23 percent increase this year.

One of the most startling statistics, the Police Department's homicide clearance rate, is particularly troubling. Through October, the department posted a 27 percent homicide clearance rate, a measure of cases that have been solved. By comparison the department's homicide clearance rate was 54 percent in 2007.

Oakland Police Chief Howard Jordan questioned the accuracy of the homicide clearance rate provided by his own department but not the otherwise less-than-inspiring results on arrest rates.

"It's not good. The numbers speak for themselves," Jordan said. "Obviously, I'm not happy, but this is the result of a combination of lots of things, including staff shortages and calls for service.

"If you look at the big picture of this city, there are a lot of things going on and not enough people to handle it. I'm not satisfied with our productivity, but I know that demands for service have exceeded our ability to match it."

And if you look at the bigger picture, Oakland city officials have no one to blame but themselves. Their lack of conviction and determination and their inability to act in a timely manner have opened the floodgates to crime in Oakland.

Oakland police officers cannot be expected to maintain adequate levels of public safety in one of the nation's most dangerous cities with 25 percent fewer cops than required by the city's own ordinance. No other ingredient counts as much in this public safety recipe.

The shortage of police officers has made home burglaries in Oakland neighborhoods a low-priority call. Slow response times to emergency calls and deep backlogs aren't for a lack of effort by patrol officers.

Homicide investigators lack the tools and resources needed to conduct complete investigations. Instead of providing crime scene technicians needed to lift fingerprints and search for evidence, some city leaders seek solutions in youth and cutting-edge violence reduction plans like Operation Ceasefire, which calls for meetings with people recognized as street leaders - and demands they cease illegal activities or face prosecution for a known crime.

What some Oakland city officials fail to comprehend is that programs like Operation Ceasefire won't work so long as there's minimal risk of being arrested, let alone convicted, for a crime in Oakland. The city's inability to maintain an adequately staffed Police Department, its lack of foresight to compensate for attrition and its misguided obsession with nonpunitive anticrime programs have only exacerbated a problem that in any other city would be described as a crisis.

Oakland Mayor Jean Quan has had two police chiefs in two years, watched her crime initiative go bust, and pursues soft solutions while the number of police officers drops and crime soars.

But so long as Quan believes the city's crime problems can be adequately addressed with goodwill programs aimed at saving violent criminals instead of investigating, arresting and prosecuting them, Oakland's crime problems will grow and police productivity and morale will only become more challenging.