Obama’s October Surprise:
A 60-40 Democratic Financial Advantage?

Obama Campaign Draws 45% of Funds from Small Donations, 34% from Large Ones

With an astounding September fundraising performance, Barack Obama and
the Democratic National Committee could be on track to outspend their
Republican counterparts by up to 3 to 2 in the month preceding the
Presidential election. During September, according to the latest FEC
reports, Obama and the DNC combined spent $134.1 million, surpassing
John McCain’s and the RNC’s 108.6 million. During the same month, the
Democrats raised $193.3 million ($151 million by Obama alone). [See Table 1.]
Although the Republicans amassed $159.6 million, that included McCain’s
$84.1 million public financing grant which has to last him into October
and early November. In contrast, Obama has been free to continue his
fundraising tsunami until the election. Thus, having begun October with
about as much cash-in-hand as the Republicans, Democrats seem destined
to achieve a large financial advantage in the last weeks of the
election. If private October fundraising were to duplicate the record-shattering September numbers, the Democratic candidate
and party would have
$354 million available while the Republican candidate and party would have only a combined $231 million—a
60% to 40% split.

Obama's fundraising was a surprise to many observers including CFI,
which wrote last month that it was “likely” that the two sides would
maintain financial parity during the general election. With the RNC
besting the DNC by almost $25 million in September alone, and McCain
receiving public financing of $84 million, Obama had to raise $55
million a month to keep the Democratic side even. And the most he had
ever raised during the long primary and convention season was $65
million in August. But he raised more than twice as much as that in
September alone!

The pattern of the Obama campaign’s donations in September was similar to that of the primary season
(Click here for summary of primary
season fundraising). Of $149 million in individual contributions, 45% came from donations of $200 or less, while 34%
came from donations of $1,000 or more.
[See Table 2.]
(It should be noted that this doesn’t mean that as much as 45% of the
money came from small donors, since a significant minority of small
donations comes from donors who aggregate over $200 during a campaign
through repeat contributions). Obama also raised money in September for
the DNC through a joint fundraising committee that appealed largely to
big donors. Of $69.1 million raised by the committee for both Obama’s
campaign and the DNC, only $7.5 million came from donations of $200 and
under.