The speculation spread like wildfire across the web, with The Daily Beast and Politico taking the “scoop” and running with it, spicing up the summer’s otherwise ennui-inducing campaign with titillating, but meaningless catnip journalism.”

In the end, most journalists concluded that Drudge’s “scoop” was unfounded, with some suggesting it may have been a plant by the Romney campaign to divert attention from the ongoing debate regarding when Romney actually left Bain Capital as CEO. That triggered the round of media self-reproach and recriminations, as the “respectable” members of the fourth estate analyzed why Drudge was able, once again, to lead them on a merry chase to pin down false information. As more than one journalist pointed out, there was almost no chance Rice would get the nomination; her pro-choice views and foreign policy role during the Bush presidency made her politically unpalatable to Romney and many voters.

I think the media was right, but for the wrong reasons. In fact, Rice is a viable, albeit probably a riskier, vice presidential choice for several reasons. First, I don’t think her pro-choice views are nearly as debilitating, now that Mitt has clinched the nomination, as critics suggest. Heck, Mitt was pro-choice at one point, so he certainly can sympathize with that perspective. And excuse me if I don’t think Mitt’s “promise” not to select a pro-choice vice president candidate is ironclad. In fact, Condi’s views are closer to most independents on this issue than are Mitt’s. More importantly, however, abortion is simply not a very important issue for most voters in this election cycle.

Second, while most of the media focus on the geographical and coalitional impact of the VP choice, there is another dimension to that selection that is often underplayed: how well the VP compensates for the presidential candidate’s perceived weaknesses. Dick Cheney wasn’t tapped by George Bush to swing Wyoming, and its three Electoral College votes, into the Republican column. He was chosen for his foreign policy credentials as a way of balancing Bush’s lack of expertise in this area. Condi could serve a similar role for Romney – she brings both foreign policy expertise and a wealth of inside connections in the foreign policy establishment to the table. These are assets Romney could utilize once in the Oval Office, much as Obama has benefitted from Joe Biden’s knowledge of Senate personalities and procedures. And, of course, there is the obvious benefit of placing an African-American woman on the ticket.

This is not to say selecting Rice is without risk. Rob Portman or Mitch Daniels or even (yawn) Tim Pawlenty, are safer picks. But if Mitt wants to think big, Rice should be in the running.

So was the Drudge rumor viable? No, but because the timing for announcing a VP selection was wrong. It is one thing to tease a vice presidential pick some six weeks before the party’s nominating convention, but it would be unprecedented to announce it! Peter Cahill dug up the dates on which presidents in the modern post-McGovern Fraser selection era, going back to Jimmy Carter in 1976, announced their vice presidential choices. The dates are shown in the following table.

Year

Candidate

VP Pick

Date

Before Convention

1976

Jimmy Carter

Walter Mondale

7/15/1976

0

1976

Gerald Ford

Bob Dole

8/19/1976

0

1980

Ronald Reagan

George H.W. Bush

7/17/1980

0

1980

Jimmy Carter

Walter Mondale

Incumbent

.

1984

Ronald Reagan

George H. W. Bush

Incumbent

.

1984

Walter Mondale

Geraldine Ferraro

7/12/1984

4

1988

George H. W. Bush

Dan Quayle

8/17/1988

0

1988

Michael Dukakis

Lloyd Bentsen

7/12/1988

6

1992

Bill Clinton

Al Gore

7/9/1992

4

1992

George H.W. Bush

Dan Quayle

Incumbent

.

1996

Bill Clinton

Al Gore

Incumbent

.

1996

Bob Dole

Jack Kemp

8/10/1996

2

2000

George W. Bush

Dick Cheney

7/25/2000

6

2000

Al Gore

Joe Lieberman

8/8/2000

6

2004

George W. Bush

Dick Cheney

Incumbent

.

2004

John Kerry

John Edwards

7/6/2004

20

2008

Barack Obama

Joe Biden

8/23/2008

2

2008

John McCain

Sarah Palin

8/29/2008

2

2012

Barack Obama

Joe Biden

Incumbent

.

2012

Mitt Romney

?????????

?

As you can see, with the exception of John Kerry in 2004, who announced John Edwards as his pick some 20 days before the Democratic convention, every other candidate has waited almost until his party’s nominating convention to formally announce his pick. The reason, of course, is that by unveiling the vice president nominee during or shortly before the convention, the candidate is trying maximize the suspense and heighten the audience for the convention itself, which is now viewed as the kickoff for the general election campaign. Some of you may recall the absolutely electrifying speech Sarah Palin gave at her unveiling as McCain’s running mate in 2008. Not coincidentally, her speech triggered the only post-Labor Day period in which McCain led Obama in the aggregate polling data.

Given this purpose, it didn’t make much sense for Kerry to waste the one-shot and limited impact of the VP announcement by pulling the trigger in mid-July, six weeks before the Republican convention in Tampa. This doesn’t preclude teasing the announcement, and even describing it as imminent. But to actually announce the choice? Bain controversy notwithstanding, it almost certainly wasn’t going to happen, despite Drudge’s rumormongering. Indeed, my best guess is that Romney won’t announce his pick until late August. This will also give his team more time to vet the prospective nominee and, if necessary, float some trial balloons as a way of gauging public reaction. Who knows? It might even be Condi!

(My apologies for the initial formatting problems with the table – Excel was misbehaving. I think the errors are all fixed.)

2 comments

Harry Enten wrote about the strategic reasons Mitt might want to announce the VP early:

Mitt Romney currently trails in the polling average by about 2 percentage points. If Romney got even half of what Kerry received or about the median vice-presidential declaration effect, then he would move into the lead in the polls. It would mark the first time all year that Romney will have lead in a majority of polls. Romney would almost certainly garner good press and perhaps some extra fundraising. It would also stop the Romneys’ financials news cycle.

The issue with naming a vice-president early is pretty simple. John Kerry received less of a convention bounce when he named his vice-president early. Romney has only a certain amount of positive news that he can control. If he chooses to use it now, it just means he will have less of it to use later. Still, if the cycle is so bad for Romney it probably is a good bet to utilize his vice-presidential pick now.

Since the Bain attacks have thus far unable to knock Romney back in the polls, and probably won’t as you have argued, the only reason to pick early would be to gain a psychological boost by opening a lead in the race. Undoubtedly Kerry gained something if only from the short-term perception he was on track to dislodge Bush from the cushy digs at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Nevertheless, we know this ultimately failed to change the fundamentals of the race. I agree with Harry and you it seems, Mitt is unlikely to play this card early.

Though I can see benefits in choosing Condi Rice, I really doubt she will be the one chosen. There are some politicians who play coy and suggest they won’t accept if asked, but Condi is not a politician. She really doesn’t want the job. Supposedly she gave a gangbuster speech at the little retreat a few weeks back inspiring some big donors to see stars. I haven’t watched it yet but it must have been great to inspire this much buzz. I do, however, think she was being honest when she said she did not want the job.

My preference is for Romney to choose Paul Ryan but I think I am going to be disappointed. I think Mitch Daniels recent appointment to Purdue rules him out as well. Jindal is a possibility and is rumored to be in the final four. We’ll probably have quite a few wild goose chases between now and the convention so Jindal is likely to make an appearance in one of them.