Writing is on the wall for wary Taiwan

Michael Tsai points to a large map on the wall of his office in Taiwan's national defence ministry. It is dotted with red symbols representing dozens of Chinese missile, air and naval bases within easy shooting range of the capital, Taipei, and other major Taiwanese cities.

Whatever Beijing may say about its peaceful intentions, Mr Tsai suggests, this map illustrates the reality - and the daunting scale - of the military threat that lurks 100 miles to the west, across the treacherous waters of the Taiwan Strait.

As deputy defence minister, it is Mr Tsai's job, and that of the 300,000 members of the Taiwanese armed forces, to monitor China's 2.1 million-strong People's Liberation Army "every day, every hour".

But with China's military spending increasing by double digits each year, the task of deterrence is growing harder.

"If Beijing keeps building up its strength, our analysis is that by 2008 to 2012, the balance of power will tip towards China," Mr Tsai said.

While Taiwan's air force pilots and "counter-forces" are better trained and technically equipped than their Chinese equivalents, according to Mr Tsai, this advantage is threatened by China's investment in new forms of electronic warfare.

"More than 700 ballistic missiles are deployed across the coastal province of China. We expect that to increase to 800 by 2006, including about 100 long-range missiles capable of delivering a warhead more than 12,000km (7,500 miles) - capable of hitting California or any part of the Pacific region, including Taiwan, Korea, Japan."

China also has about 80 submarines, nuclear and diesel powered, many obtained from Russia, and is expanding its military horizons. Last December, a Chinese submarine penetrated the so-called "first island chain" - a notional maritime defence line running south from Japan to the Philippines - and sailed close to the US naval base on Guam in the Pacific.

"This is one of the reasons why their leaders' claim that China would emerge as a peaceful power is not matched by deeds," Mr Tsai says. Within five to 10 years, China could overhaul Russia as the second largest military power after the US, he adds.

Another reason is China's new "anti-secession law" that has empowered the PLA to use non-peaceful means to prevent any definitive Taiwanese move towards outright independence.

Beijing maintains it wants a negotiated settlement with Taiwan, albeit on the basis of the "one China" principle accepted by Britain in Hong Kong in 1997, but which most Taiwanese reject.

The new Chinese law was denounced by up to 1 million Taiwanese in a street protest last Saturday, and condemned by the US and Japan, on whose deliberately ambiguous support Taiwan's policy of military deterrence relies.

Like other Taiwanese politicians, Mr Tsai stresses the possibly doleful international repercussions should China attempt to subdue by force what it regards as a renegade province.

"Every day 600 to 900 vessels pass through the Taiwan Strait," Mr Tsai says. "Most are Japanese and foreign ships, mostly carrying oil. There are also more than 1,000 commercial flights in the zone every day." And Taiwan, despite its relatively small population of 24 million people, is a major global exporter, with an economy ranked 16th in the world.

If the cold war turns hot, or if China mounts a blockade of the island, Mr Tsai predicts, the result could be a big international crisis, potentially drawing in the US Pacific fleet's carrier groups, as happened briefly in 1996.

"We say we are all citizens of a global village. Every citizen would be affected one way or another, economically or politically."

The EU's proposal to replace its arms embargo on China with a restrictive code of conduct is officially seen in Taipei as sending the wrong signal to Beijing. Privately, officials are scathing about what they believe is the reckless pursuit of economic self-interest by some states, notably France.

A visit this week to Tokyo by the French president, Jacques Chirac, appears to have done little to allay Japan's concerns about the embargo, amid rising Sino-Japanese tensions.

For his part, Mr Tsai says, Mr Chirac is acting "immorally" in pushing for an end to the ban, particularly given the continuing human rights problems in an undemocratic China.

He hopes that Britain's EU presidency later this year will adhere more closely to Europe's "traditional values".

Given Taiwan's predicament, it has no option but to arm itself as best it can, Mr Tsai says. China's recent actions mean that a long-delayed multi-billion dollar arms purchase from the US is now more likely to be approved by the Taiwanese parliament.

"The US arms sale is for self-defence. We're not going to attack them [China]! It's just like your neighbour is a big robber with a knife or a gun and they point the gun at your head. What would you do?"