The French president may be unpopular, but don’t write him off

DOMINIQUE STRAUSS-KAHN'S arrest in May on charges of attempted rape and sexual assault dealt such a shock that French politics went into a state of suspended animation. This week, however, the countdown to the 2012 presidential election seemed to begin for real. Two contenders put in their names for the Socialist nomination. France got a new finance minister, after Christine Lagarde was picked to succeed Mr Strauss-Kahn as IMF boss. And President Nicolas Sarkozy launched a grand appeal to rebuild France.

The new Socialist candidates are both women: Martine Aubry, the party leader, and Ségolène Royal, who lost to Mr Sarkozy in 2007. Along with François Hollande, Ms Royal's former partner and the party's ex-boss, they are the three front-runners for the nomination, which goes to a vote by registered left-wing supporters in a two-round primary in October. The latest polls suggest that the second-round vote will pit Mr Hollande, the favourite, against Ms Aubry.

Neither candidate has anything like the international stature or experience of Mr Strauss-Kahn, whom many had expected to represent the Socialists in 2012. Mr Hollande has never held a ministerial job, though he led the party for 11 years. Ms Aubry is a former labour minister, best-known for introducing the 35-hour working week to France. Mr Hollande is the more moderate; Ms Aubry has more popular left-wing appeal. Both have built a regional fief—Mr Hollande in rural Corrèze; Ms Aubry in the industrial town of Lille, where she is mayor—giving them some grass-roots credibility.

On paper the Socialists should sweep to victory next year. They have not won the presidency since François Mitterrand was re-elected nearly a quarter of a century ago. Voters are fed up with the mercurial Mr Sarkozy; he has become the most unpopular president under the Fifth Republic a year away from a re-election bid. “He is still paying for the mistakes he made when he was first elected,” laments one senior party figure. The Strauss-Kahn affair does not seem to have backfired on the Socialists. Left-wing voters appear to consider his arrest a personal difficulty, not a party matter, and have swung behind the alternatives. One poll finds that Mr Hollande would beat Mr Sarkozy by 60% to 40% in a presidential second-round vote; Ms Aubry would fare almost as well, winning by 58% to 42%.

Such numbers look crushing, and certainly Mr Sarkozy is in for a tough campaign, not least because he also faces stiff opposition from Marine Le Pen, the energetic young leader of the National Front, as well as the possibility of a centrist candidate splitting the right. However, it would be a big mistake to rule Mr Sarkozy out. In recent months, mindful of the virulent criticism of his style, he has been studiously discreet, trying hard to behave in a more presidential manner. This week, while unveiling €35 billion ($50 billion) of investment in technology and research, the fruit of a national bond, he tried to distance himself from petty politics with lofty talk of preparing for “the France in 20 years' time”. He did his best not to look smug when he hosted world leaders at a recent G8 summit in Deauville. He has even managed not to crow publicly about the pregnancy of his wife, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy.

Mr Sarkozy may not be able to claim direct credit for Ms Lagarde's nomination to the IMF. But he selected and promoted her at home, keeping her on to become the country's longest-serving finance minister in over 30 years. Her appointment to the IMF is a small coup for France. She was replaced as finance minister by François Baroin, the outgoing budget minister, in a mini-reshuffle unveiled on June 29th. Valérie Pécresse, the universities minister, takes over the budget portfolio.

Another factor in Mr Sarkozy's favour is the French economy. After decent first-quarter figures, Insee, the national statistics body, forecasts GDP growth in 2011 of 2.1%—higher than the government's own estimate. The IMF states that “growth in 2011 is likely to exceed earlier expectations”. The French know that they are not sheltered from the turmoil in Greece and elsewhere in the euro zone. But such trends are nonetheless comforting.

All of which seems to have led to a bottoming out of Mr Sarkozy's approval ratings, which had been in free fall over the past two years. Of ten recent polls, only one has recorded a month-on-month drop in his popularity. A CSA survey noted a steady five percentage-point rise to 35% between March and June (see chart). Most startling of all, the French seem to think that Mr Sarkozy will win next year whether they want him to or not. In a Harris poll this month, only 28% said that they wanted him to be re-elected—but 57% said that they thought he would be.