Sunday 10 August 2014 11.41 EDT
First published on Sunday 10 August 2014 11.41 EDT

The government has raised the prospect of switching off the UK's copper telephone network, some of which is 140 years old, as it consults on the nation's future digital infrastructure needs.

In a strategy paper the Department for Culture, Media and Sport describes a digital Britain 20 years from now where the streets are filled with driverless cars and internet coverage is everywhere.

To achieve this vision, the ministry is asking for views on a raft of new measures, including copper switch-off and a widening of the universal service obligation to include broadband.

Digital industries minister Ed Vaizey and the Treasury's commercial secretary Lord Deighton commissioned the paper to help draw up the UK's policy on internet, television and telephone networks from 2020 onwards.

The creation of the national telephone network, one of the biggest infrastructure achievements of the 20th century, could become obsolete as faster fibre-optic cables begin to cover more of the country.

The DCMS, which has asked industry and stakeholders to respond to its consultation by 1 October, argues switching off copper could speed up investment in more modern alternatives like fibre and superfast mobile networks.

"The government is likely at some point to need to consider with operators and the regulator whether switching off copper networks is desirable from a commercial and a policy objective," the paper states.

It goes on to argue: "The benefit of switching off copper networks is that this may further incentivise investment by operators to increase coverage of non-copper networks, and also act as a spur to replace last mile copper networks, or allow substitution with mobile or fixed wireless services."

Most of the telephone network is owned by BT, some 75 million miles of wire, worth between £2.5bn and £5bn according to a 2011 estimate by Investec bank. It is a sum which analysts say could help fund any future fibre builds, depending on the cost of extracting the wires.

BT's existing multi-billion pound project to build a fibre network for its residential customers takes the new cables only as far as the green street cabinet. For the so-called "final mile" from the cabinet to the doorstep, most homes are still connected with copper.

In Australia, the government-owned company rebuilding the national broadband network with fibre has already begun decommissioning the older infrastructure in some areas, and Melbourne's copper service was switched off in May this year.

"The government would need to be sure that any switch-off of copper networks would not leave any consumers without the availability of communications services," the DCMS warns. Any deadline would need to be sufficiently far in the future that current planned investments in copper, such a unbundling local exchanges, still make sense financially.

A spokeswoman for BT said: "We are looking at the details of the consultation and will respond by the October deadline. The copper access network continues to evolve so it remains to be seen whether a transition from copper to alternative technologies is necessary. Given the government's commitment to technological neutrality, we would be surprised if any proposals defined technology choice."

Ministers are also asking whether access to broadband should become a legal right, like water and electricity, in order to prevent a rural versus urban digital divide. Some EU states, including Spain, Malta and Finland, have already introduced universal service obligations (USO) for fast internet access.

In the UK, every home and business is entitled to a telephone line and dial-up internet access, but not broadband. The government has a universal service commitment (USC), which is not legally binding, to deliver a minimum broadband speed of 2Mbps to every premises.

The consultation paper asks: "Is there a role for a revised USO or USC to ensure that minimum consumer demand requirements are met and to reduce the potential for a new digital divide? What might this look like?"

Painting a picture of digital Britain from 2025 to 2030, the ministry sets out three potential future scenarios. Under the first, demand for fast internet is modest. Under the third, demand is at the upper end of current forecasts.

Outlining scenario three, the paper imagines voice traffic will be carried mainly over mobile phones, with the fixed line connection reserved for internet access. Home working will become more popular as the difference between networks for homes and small businesses blurs. Both will have access to lightning-fast 1Gbps speeds that allow content to be uploaded as rapidly as it is downloaded.

"People's expectations will be that coverage and connectivity are hygiene factors, taken for granted, and that fixed, mobile and Wi-Fi will seamlessly work with each other. Devices will also be simple to use and utilise whichever connectivity is available or best delivers the service required."

Smart homes, smart energy and smart cities will become the norm, and "driverless cars will lead to safe motoring requiring ubiquitous road coverage".

DCMS notes that the UK's networks are better than many in Europe, but have slipped behind those in Sweden, the Netherlands, Japan, Korea and the US.

Networking specialists Cisco predict that in the UK mobile data traffic will grow 11-fold from 2013 to 2018, reaching 445 petabytes per month by 2018, the equivalent of 111 million DVDs each month or 1,226 million text messages each second.

"Remaining competitive internationally is a key issue for the UK and a world-class digital infrastructure is an important component of that competitiveness," the DCMS states.