Monday, March 25, 2013

Currently the tools are now focused on the stock market, but additional tools for other types of investments are planned to be added later.

Some pages have comment sections for discussion.

Utilities

Stock / Company Search
On the upper left of www.pesobility.com there is a search box. Just type in the symbol or the name of the listed company and a dropbox will appear, select the desired stock and it will take you to the stock information page.

Stock Information Page (WIP)
Example is the stock information page of SM. This page lists several information about the stock like the current price, previous close, 52-week high, and most importantly it contains the PE Ratio of several stocks that I compute. It also contains PE Ratio based from PSE but it's not very reliable.

During the market pre-close where the PSE system is matching the last price for the day of each stock, Pesobility takes a snapshot of the stock prices then compare it with the prices at market run-off. Sometimes there are opportunities when the system matches are way below (or way higher) the snapshot price.

If the prices difference is significant from the snapshot, a "Run-off %" will be filled up. A negative "Run off %" is an opportunity to buy and a positive is an opportunity to sell.

Price to Earning (PE) ratio is a good fundamental indicator if a stock is overpriced or undervalued, however, it is more accurate if a stock's PE is compared with other stocks in the similar industry. The PE Ratio by Industry is a work-in-progress (WIP) page to list stocks according to its industry and display the PE Ratio of each stock.

Reference Pages

Virtual Stocks Trading

You can buy and sell using virtual money on live market. Whether you want to hone your decision skills or you just want to see what happens in the future if you buy a certain stock now. This is a hassle-free way of learning trading in the stock market and testing your skills and research.

For now, the registration is still closed, but you may request by emailing me for a trial account. Upon approval, you will be given an account at www.pesobility.com and buy and sell stocks using virtual money.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Today, PSEi slip below 6,700 mark to 6,694.71; it's down by 1.21%. Many are saying it's because of China, it's because of HSBC telling that we're overpriced. But aside from those, I think a major factor is today is the cash dividends Ex-Date of several companies in the PSE index: PLDT (TEL), Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), and Aboitiz Power (AP). These stocks (which contributes to a significant weight in PSEi) are expected to go down today because of the cash div ex date.

Tomorrow, no one knows what will happen. Hopefully it's a better day for the stock market.

Alliance Global Inc. (AGI) has just disclosed its 2012 income of P20.8 billion. For its current price of 21.65 my computed PE is 10.691. A low PE + AGI is on PSE index (a blue chip). Conservative target price is around P25.

Sorry guys, after double checking it's not a very good buy after all. After checking its disclosure at PSE, the income attributable to shareholders is only 13.6B and NOT 20.8B. This makes it a 16+PE stock. It's still below our average market PE of 18-19 but this is not a VERY good buy, the upside is not very high.

The press release of 20.8B AGI income is just a hype.

Although AGI has a buying spree on the first half of today (March 15), it may already be a good sell at 22.5 if you got it 22 or below.

Friday, March 1, 2013

It's getting harder and to pick undervalued stocks these days. But as of today, here's my list for the month of March (2013):

Aboitiz Power (AP)Aboitiz hasn't announced their 2012 income yet, but my projected PE Ratio for AP is around 11.56 for its current price of P38.50. This is low considering the state of our market today. It will also probably give cash dividends ~4% on today's stock price.
AP's cash dividends ex-date was on March 14. It's expected to go down at least P1.66. For people who are still holding, suggest to continue holding it for longer period (probably until before May).

Security Bank (SECB)

Based on SECB's unaudited income of 7.5B, its PE ratio should be 10.68 11.9 at its current price of P176.70. A low PE especially when you compare it with other banks which are somewhere in the range of 18-20.

PLDT (TEL)Actually this is my Feb pick, but just in case it still slips below 2900, I think it's a good buy. It will also announce its financial statement on March 6 (same day as Aboitiz) and probably the details of its cash dividends too ~3.9% on today's stock price. It also had a big one-time gain from selling its BPO unit so it has a buffer; the buffer is ~P12B, I think.
TEL cash div ex-date was on March 14 also. It's expected to go down at least P112. Also Citi has a sell alert on TEL with TP = P2700.

[Update]Manila Water (MWC)
My computed PE for MWC is 13.45 at its current price of P36.35. For an Ayala company, I believe a PE ratio of 13.45 is low. This was my first stock that I bought last november 2012; priced around ~P31. I still hold this stock; as a matter of fact, I topped up last month at ~P34.

This is my personal choice for a long term stock investment. I had neither fundamental nor technical analysis in making MWC my favorite. Even though my other stocks such as MEG, AEV and BDO that I bought after MWC already surpassed its gains, I just like the fact that it's an Ayala company and I like how its graph looks like: a slow uptrend growth. I'm just glad it is showing a good PE ratio and I can recommend it with a basis.

UnionBank (UBP)

My estimated PE ratio is 10.75 at the current price of 127. Aboitiz companies today generally have low PE ratio, when people notice this I believe it will spark a chain reaction on the Aboitiz companies with relatively low PE's like AP, UBP, AEV considering that many of the stocks in our market today are overpriced.

[Update March 14, 2013]AGIAlliance Global Inc. (AGI) has just disclosed its 2012 income of P20.8 billion. For its current price of 21.65 my computed PE is 10.691. A low PE + AGI is on PSE index (a blue chip). Conservative target price is around P25.
Please see explanation for more details. AGI's income attributable to shareholders is 13.6B and not 20.8B.

Disclaimer: This is based on personal opinion and research. I'm not liable for any loss in case the above statements are incorrect or the market suddenly crashes. Happy investing!