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Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

They should not and will not trade him during this season. He is part of what could make this team a real WS contender, assuming the starting pitching suffices of course. An Ellsbury salary dump is more likely, but I doubt they find a team to take Ells, even if they are willing to mess with a winning combo.

But trading Hicks for value has to be one of the options they consider in the off season if they have 6 guys who are ML quality for the OF in 2018.

It is interesting that it is Hicks, who already moves around the OF, that they are trying at first. They do not want to mess with Judge and the other two are smaller and older and probably less flexible.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Not to say that the Yankees should trade him this mid summer. Just want to know his market value. Judge is the only OFer who should be untouchable. (Unless the Angels are willing to deal Trout. That's another story.)

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Originally Posted by awy

hicks at 1b is fine if it allows them to fit in more at bats at the expense of deadwood like carter

I'd definitely like to see him get more ABs, but I'd prefer moving Gardner or Ellsbury. I don't like moving Hicks out of his comfort zone defensively because it could affect him at the plate. And when Bird comes back, you've got the same problem. If they're biding some time while working on moving another OFer, fine. But that should really be a priority at this point.

I'd also hope that Carter can get on a roll so he can be a useful trade chip. He'd probably run into quite a few balls to hit if he were better protected in the lineup.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Originally Posted by jcarey

I'd definitely like to see him get more ABs, but I'd prefer moving Gardner or Ellsbury. I don't like moving Hicks out of his comfort zone defensively because it could affect him at the plate. And when Bird comes back, you've got the same problem. If they're biding some time while working on moving another OFer, fine. But that should really be a priority at this point.

I'd also hope that Carter can get on a roll so he can be a useful trade chip. He'd probably run into quite a few balls to hit if he were better protected in the lineup.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Still not convinced that Hicks is the real deal...maybe at 250 plate appearances. In the meantime, his OBP is .464 and he has speed, so he needs to be batting second, not at the bottom of the order. For now I'd move Castro to the 3rd spot, then Judge and Sanchez.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Originally Posted by jcarey

Eh, Gardner is pretty movable now I would think. I would sit Ellsbury against pretty much all lefties in favor of Hicks. That also makes him more likely to accept a trade.

it is probably unrealistic for hal to eat a bigly portion of the ells deal. on both hal and cashman's sides. the lmiting factor here is the amount of money hal will have to eat. Propping up ells value is helpful here

gardy is pretty good atm im thinking of just winning this year with him if possible

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

it is probably unrealistic for hal to eat a bigly portion of the ells deal. on both hal and cashman's sides.

gardy is pretty good atm im thinking of just winning this year with him if possible

Maybe re: Ells. But that's what I would do.

You could just slot in Hicks for Gardner and probably not miss a beat, especially if you believe that Hicks has turned a corner. And Gardner might actually net you another asset (maybe a reliever) that can play a part.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Originally Posted by Bub

Still not convinced that Hicks is the real deal...maybe at 250 plate appearances. In the meantime, his OBP is .464 and he has speed, so he needs to be batting second, not at the bottom of the order. For now I'd move Castro to the 3rd spot, then Judge and Sanchez.

That would be my ideal lineup too.

In terms of being sold on him. I think I'm half in on that. His BB/K ratio makes me think hes going to be an above average regular. That being said, I want to see more ABs before I'm all in.

My expectations on him have definitely changed though. When he swung first pitch with 2 on nobody out in the fifth I was so disappointed in him. I was thinking how UnHickslike of him.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

only swing on pitches that you can do damage on. pretty basic but requires a whole strategy built on top of it.

that article is wrong in this segment btw.

Now this is a sign of regression to come for Hicks. Swinging at so few strikes is not good for power. I looked last year’s relationship between Swing% and ISO and the linear relationship was minimal, cor = 0.021 p-value = 0.805. If a hitter is swinging less overall, it does not tell you much about their power.

it's only 'not good for power' if you don't disaggregate the zones. swinging at upper half of plate = more power. hicks is swinging at precisely those pitches that he can drive and that's good for power and good for sustainable power. to wit, hicks' exit velo on all balls is low but his exit velo on flyballs and liners, the kind of batted balls that actually matter, is pretty good at 94.9. it's actually similar to guys like joey votto, who has a middling exit velo but also hits flyballs/liners fairly hard.

the spread between hicks' groundball exit velo and his flyball exit velo is one of the largest in baseball, a telltale sign of his swing/strategy.

it's also a sign of how much benefit hicks could get from roiding up. his approach plus 5 mph extra exit velo = barry bonds

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

baseball players often turn a corner and get much better. to know if it's for real you need to understand the core mechanism of how baseball works. what makes a player good. having this theory is indispensable to correctly using stats.

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Originally Posted by awy

baseball players often turn a corner and get much better. to know if it's for real you need to understand the core mechanism of how baseball works. what makes a player good. having this theory is indispensable to correctly using stats.

The only way Hicks has turned this corner, or should I say, this hair-pin curve, is PEDs. There is no way on God's green earth that a player moves to a 177 OPS+ player after being about a 75 OPS+ player for 4 years.

I get what makes a player good. I also get what makes a player bad.
This particular player has shown, for 4 seasons, that he's bad.
This hot streak gives him value. Take it an run. Eventually, he'll return to form.
And if he doesn't, it's likely he'll get busted for doping.

"Leave it to Yankees fans to be upset at having too many great players.”—Hitman23

Re: 2017 Aaron Hicks Thread

Originally Posted by effdamets

Sorry - I'd trade him right now while he has value.
I cannot trust 100 at bats over 4 years of futility.

I'm all for selling high, but what useful piece are we looking to get? I don't think he brings a quality starting pitching prospect, but maybe one who can play third base if another club has depth there.