Trump and Iran, It's Getting Messy

Upon first glance at this piece in the Financial Times "Iran warns it will not accept changes to nuclear deal", Iran's response to Trump's campaign rhetoric appears to be something that one would expect to hear from a country getting back on it's feet. If we look to history and current sentiments, one could see a whole different set of events playing out.

First, remember that the US and Iran used to have a rather cozy relationship when the Shah was in power, Iran was purchasing large amounts of arms from the US government. Iran used this to gain military supremacy over its neighbors and the US used the connection with Iran an in to exercise some amount of it's world hegemony in the Middle East. This all ended with the overthrow of the Mohammed Shah regime in 1979. The country then turned to Russia as its main ally and arms dealer.

Throughout Trump's campaign we have heard him say time and time again that the Iran nuclear deal was one of the worst deals the US has made with any country ever. So, we automatically assume that by saying this he intends to dismantle the deal and slap sanctions back on Iran, but what if it doesn't.

Najmeh Bozorgmehr reports from an interview with Sadegh Kharrazi, leader of the moderate Neday-e Azadi and a relative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that, Tehran is open to the possibility of “strategic co-operation” with the US in the Middle East.

While Mr Kharrazi says; “Undoubtedly, this can never lead to a strategic alliance" he does say, "but we can have strategic co-operation in the region.” A well as, "Mr Trump would be wise to look at Iran as an opportunity, which is what Russia is doing thanks to our exceptional might and strategic advantages in the region."

What really got my attention here is relating Trump's current sentiment on Russia and future foreign policies between Russia and the US, and the possibility of using Iran as some sort of stepping stone. I may be way off base here, but the US and Iran were cozy in the past and the US is also likely to be looking to patch things up with Russia during a Trump presidency.

That said, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are still very much anti-American and would like nothing better than to have the US ousted from the region. They have expressed that changes to the nuclear deal may be grounds to initiate expulsion of US political and military influences in the region.

Obviously, the President-Elect will need to choose his moves carefully in this situation. We know that US republicans want to remove the nuclear deal and reestablish sanctions on Iran. On the other hand, if the US wishes to remain involved in the region, breaking the deal and sanctions are not going to be the solution (I am in no way of the opinion that the US needs to keep it's thumb in this pie, just stating the facts).

The point being, before we jump to conclusions, it is important to try to examine all possible outcomes. As Mr. Kharrazi said, “For now, we need to wait and see what will be the US’s security doctrine and who will be Mr Trump’s aides.”