The real gun control drama begins Thursday

Yet pressure from party leaders, including the president, can sometimes backfire. Obama, for instance, personally called Begich and Pryor on Tuesday to lobby them on tomorrow’s filibuster vote, Senate insiders said.

But the president’s move might have the opposite result of what he intended as both senators and top Democrats were irate that Obama would be twisting arms in his own party.

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Giffords watches Kelly shoot

And partisan tensions were on display on Wednesday, even as Manchin and Toomey announced their breakthrough agreement. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), who had earlier attempted to cut a similar deal with Coburn, wanted to attend the news conference during which Manchin and Toomey unveiled their proposal. Toomey, though, didn’t agree to Schumer’s appearance, according to numerous Senate sources.

“I think the chances of it passing are about 50-50,” a top Democratic aide said of the chances for final Senate passage. “I really don’t know how it will go.”

Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who will serve as the manager of the gun bill on the floor, said he doesn’t know how long it will take to pass. Leahy has a bipartisan proposal with Collins to expand the penalties for gun trafficking.

“I never take too long on the floor. You know that,” Leahy joked.

Obama and gun control groups will continue to pound Republicans — and wayward Democrats — to get in line.

White House officials said the president will continue to make public speeches calling for passage of the background checks bill and to lobby lawmakers. Organizing for Action, the nonprofit created out of Obama’s reelection campaign infrastructure, plans to lobby hard for the bill, as well.

One wild card in the Senate fight over gun control will be New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his pro-gun control group, Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

The Bloomberg-funded group has pumped more than $12 million into the effort to pass a background checks bill, including at one point targeting Toomey. The group pulled the Pennsylvania ad when Toomey signed onto the agreement with Manchin.

If the Bloomberg-backed group is willing to spend similar amounts throughout the next few weeks — potentially countering the NRA’s opposition to the bill — it could help Democrats and the White House fight pro-gun rights lawmakers to a draw in the struggle for public opinion. Sources close to the group said it hasn’t made any decisions on this front yet.

MAIG then went up with a blistering ad on Wednesday against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who is a leading opponent of any new gun bill. The ad accuses Rubio of “letting criminals and the dangerous mentally ill get guns without a background check.” It adds: “Rubio’s presidential ambitions make Floridans less safe.”

“This is the end of the beginning and we are going to be continuing to work with survivors, police, mayors and the rest of the 90 percent who believe it’s time to fix the background check system,” said Mark Glaze, MAIG’s director.

MAIG plans some 80 events Saturday to energize supporters in Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and elsewhere.