The Alberta knock-on: A shift in the federal-provincial balance of power?

One of Stephen Harper’s objectives as prime minister has been to reduce the size and role of the federal government, not just for the short term. He wants to ensure that governments in the future can never again play the active role they have in the past in social and economic policy.

In that task he has been largely successful in reducing the presence and significance of the federal government in almost every aspect of the lives of Canadians. You can easily live in urban Canada and never have anything to do with the federal government, beyond paying taxes.

But the Conservatives may be about to discover that their abdication of any federal role in much of public policy making in the country doesn’t produce their small- government nirvana. It only accelerates the speed with which another level of government will take on with enthusiasm whatever the federal government has abandoned.

The New Democratic Party victory in Alberta makes that much more likely.

While much of the immediate post-election attention has focused on how the NDP win may affect the federal election in the fall, the more significant and long-lasting impact will certainly be how it will shake up federal-provincial relations in Canada.

For the first time since the late 1950s, Alberta, Quebec and Ontario will all be governed by parties that broadly share the same philosophical view of the role of government in society and have common interests. They are all in power for the next four years and they share a view of the role government should play in the country that is starkly different from Stephen Harper’s. More than that, their philosophical opponents in each of the provinces are in complete disarray.

It will take a while for the NDP to establish itself in power in Alberta, but by 2016 federal-provincial relations could be much different than they are today.

In fact, it is probably stretching it to say there was a common philosophy in the 1950s when the Union Nationale governed Quebec, Progressive Conservatives were in power in Ontario and Social Credit ruled Alberta.

So, in reality, the NDP Alberta victory has created an unprecedented situation at a time when the federal government has vacated the field of policy-making. Whether it is in energy, health care, environment and climate change, social services, transportation, infrastructure or pensions (just to name a few), the field is virtually wide open for the three provinces to implement joint policies that can completely undermine or counter whatever the federal government may want to do.

Together, Ontario, Alberta and Quebec collectively are the home of 73 per cent of Canada’s population, produce 74 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product, are responsible for 71 per cent of Canada’s energy exports, 70 per cent of all Canada’s merchandise exports and about 80 per cent of our imports by dollar value.

If the three provinces decide they want to do something together on economic policy, taxation, social policy or anything else, either the rest of the country jumps on board or is left behind.

Inter-provincial co-operation has a precedent.

Few may remember that in the mid-1970s, the Ontario government under Progressive Conservative premier William Davis was an investor in Syncrude, one ofthe earliest companies active in Alberta’s tar sands. That was done because Ontario saw national benefit in development of Alberta’s unconventional oil reserves. Ontario’s involvement was welcomed by Alberta Progressive Conservative premier Peter Lougheed. At the time, Quebec was under its first Parti Quebecois government and more broadly Davis and Lougheed also worked together with the Liberal federal government to try counter the risk to the country’s future posed by the PQ’s drive for separation.

Quebec’s departure is not a risk today. Premier Philippe Couillard has been quite open in saying he wants his province to take a leadership role in the country on many issues. He highlighted those plans for Quebec clear in a speech to the Ontario legislature this morning.

So what if Alberta, Ontario and Quebec decided to work together to turn the Energy East pipeline into a reality for national benefit just as Ontario and Alberta once joined to give the tar sands a boost. At the same time, what ifthey link that directly to greater action on climate change and the environment.

We have already seen Ontario and Quebec begin to work together on a cap and trade approach to greenhouse gas emissions. A broader collective effort by the three on climate change could both make progress on the issue and soften both opposition to the pipeline and some of the damage done by the Harper government’s reputation on climate change.

Equally valuable could be the development of a national energy strategy that looks at what we produce, what we export and how we sell it, designed to ensure all three provinces maximize their returns, particularly in the U.S. market. If Alberta, Ontario and Quebec started down this path, how long would it be before British Columbia and Newfoundland jumped on board, again despite Ottawa’s unwillingness to participate?

Some of this already happens through the Council of the Federation made up of Canada’s provincial premiers, who meet next in St John’s July 15-17. The council already has inter-provincial working groups on health care innovation, energy strategy, fiscal arrangements as well as ongoing work on trade. An alliance of the three provinces could give the council’s profile and impact a significant boost.

Joint action could also challenge the federal government in some fields.

If the Harper government continues to block attempts to improve the Canada Pension Plan, the three provinces could respond with their own supplementary system much as Ontario is starting to do.

Not happy with the new prostitution law, mandatory minimum sentences or other changes in the Harper government’s pandering to the “tough on crime” crowd? Collectively the provinces could take the federal government to court to overturn laws they believe are detrimental to the administration of justice and the criminal justice system. On past performance, the federal government is a consistent loser whenever it is challenged this way.

If they think the federal government has abandoned its national responsibilities in any field, take Ottawa to court under the Charter to force it to act. It’s an ironic twist that would amount to using the same strategy against the Harper government that conservative groups and Republican state governments have used against the Obama administration in recent years on Obamacare and a range of other issues.

In virtually every field of policy making and regulation, the three provinces working together have the potential to establish and implement de facto national standards and responses to a wide range of public policy challenges.

It will take a while for the NDP to establish itself in power in Alberta, but by 2016 federal-provincial relations could be much different than they are today.

There is also a broader systemic impact from such an inter-provincial alliance. It will serve as a magnet for Liberals and New Democrats. If they work at the provincial level they know they can have an impact. That is much less clear federally and certainly won’t be true if the Conservatives are re-elected. That is inevitably going to make it more difficult for the federal Liberals and NDP to attract good candidates and the best staff and committed workers willing to devote their spare time to the federal rather than the provincial party.

That is equally true for the federal public service, already dispirited and feeling marginalized after a decade of Conservative government. Smart young graduates interested in a career in public policy formulation and implementation will look to jobs in Quebec, Alberta and Ontario where they can have an impact. If they haven’t already, they will quickly conclude they would be wasting their time in Ottawa.

The Harper government has gone a long way toward its goal of a smaller, less visible and less engaged federal government. If they are re-elected, the federal Conservatives could take more steps to institutionalize that reality, only to see it all being undone by provinces over which Mr Harper and his party have no control. That would simply highlight the ultimate futility of the approach the Conservatives have followed on public policy and the role of government in society over the past decade.

Christopher Waddell is an associate professor and director of Carleton University’s School of Journalism and Communication in Ottawa. He also holds the school’s Carty Chair in Business and Financial Journalism. He is a veteran of the CBC and Globe and Mail newsrooms and now works with iPolitics as an associate editor.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

15 comments on “The Alberta knock-on: A shift in the federal-provincial balance of power?”

“He wants to ensure that governments in the future can never again play the active role they have in the past in social and economic policy.” And just how does Waddell flange that up with a government that has added a record $165 billion more debt to this country, has needled it’s nose into niqabs, prostitution laws, auditing charities, muzzling the press, and most importantly its work with think tanks and under ground money?

Exactly! The very thing they decry in “liberals” they do themselves – less well, and with a more malign intent.

They have hidden their decisions on immigration, though we know that last year, they admitted more folks than in the decade previous. Wanna bet most of those are Christians, and/or social conservatives? They are literally importing voting blocks more to their liking to keep “engineering” that gravy train.

They’re pretty darned quiet…SHHH…. I’m hunting wabbits…
All I know is, no Roma and no Mexicans, and nobody that wouldn’t vote Conservative.
So if you’re repressed by a right-wing government, you’re on a safe list so no Canada for you, and if you’re repressed by a left-wing government, step right up!
Also an express pass for billionaires.
The Current did an expose of the impossibility for many couples to settle in Canada if one spouse isn’t Canadian, it was like torture for them with 99 miles of red tape and no end in sight to allow them to immigrate… before Harper it was quite easy.
The point seemed to be that they don’t want outsiders and/or want to show everyone who’s boss – Stephen’s boss around here!

Anna-Maria Tremonti said “it sounds like a problem without a solution,” which I thought was an odd comment.

Haven’t heard too many good things about AMT lately. Not sure what’s up with her – don’t listen to the program. But CBC has been infiltrated/”subdued” – it’s only a question of to what extent and whether it’s remediable!

Wonder if Barbara Amiel retained her Canadian citizenship. Must have as hubby Connie renounced his, and is a convicted felon, but he’s all snug as a bug in a rug back in Canader. He’ll probably never leave now – he’ll be needing that medical care soon, no doubt.

They ensure governments can’t play an active role by adding crushing debt loads and buying expensive new military equipment and shipping our troops out into costly wars. The echoes of Harper’s 10 years will take 30 to die away. The U.S. is still paying for Reagan’s follies. We’ll have our own soon enough.

“… never again play the active role they have in the past in social and economic policy.” Like presiding over recalls of poisonous toys and diseased meat because foreign countries and multinational corporations have not yet downsized to match? Like watching small Quebec towns explode and burn?

But it hasn’t stopped there, has it? Hasn’t the military been caught short of maintenance, operations and training (let alone capital equipment)? And disowning wounded veterans: perhaps more a social policy, but how can it not affect serving personnel?

If you have a car that is only just able to reach the speed limit, you may be unable to deal with a sudden intrusion of reality that a bit of additional acceleration could have handled. But such a vehicle may also be in serious need of a steering check, and verification that the wheels have not fallen off…

There are so many bitter sweet ironies around this regime’s silly destructive grand plan.
Listening to Cross Country yesterday had me imagining Heather Conway, her brilliant creative partner Patricia
Rozema and so many other bright lights snuggling up for a good read of their favourite authors. You know, those
illustrious names Rex favours above all others…Peter Stockland, of Convivium, Brian Lee Crowley a Koch apparatchik, John Ivison his regular sidekick, Charles McVety that great Family guy, “Stock” day, everyone’s
hero, Tasha and her buddies from the Fraser Institute. Oh, the list is quite endless and less than impressive for those of us who prefer to read intelligent truthful literature.
It’s just not even possible to imagine that these people who are supposed to be the leaders of our public broadcaster would ever in a million years waste their time with these second rate wannabes.
By God, we’ve fallen a long way down and it will take ages to rebuild and clean house.
As for Tremonti, she’s lucky to have her job after the hatchet jobs she’s done and her overwhelming arrogance
which really is laughable. Who listens to her anymore?

The loss of a Cons government in Alberta has shifted the federal provincial balance of power drastically. Harper can no longer depend on support from Alberta or even pretend that he is working in the interests of Albertans when he goes against the demands from the NDP government.

What is Harper going to do? Scold Albertans, or Alberstatans as his own Con MPs now refer to his home province, for not electing a Cons government? Recall that Prentice did try to frighten voters into voting Cons. Prentice even had help from those business elites. Instead of succumbing to the fearmongering, Albertans had told Prentice to bugger off, in no uncertain terms.

Yup, it will be interesting to watch Harper deal with the demands from the NDP government when they roll in.

Very interesting article. While Harper has been off playing soldiers and lying about defending Canadian values, Ontario and Quebec have stepped into the federal leadership vacuum on matters that real Canadians actually care about, like the environment and the CPP. It had not yet occurred to me that if Alberta joined the other two provinces, there would be a critical mass of anti-Harper power that would quickly grow to include the rest of the country. In his speech at the Canadian Club today, Trudeau hinted that if the federal government doesn’t start working to fix the things that are wrong with the country, people will rise up to deal with the issues themselves. I doubt that he had in mind a provincial usurpation of federal political power, but it could happen. Being Canadian, we probably wouldn’t stage a revolution, but it is feasible that we could work collectively through provincial leaders to render the federal government almost completely irrelevant.