Abe’s Economic Archery With a Golf Club

By Gerard Baker and Jacob M. Schlesinger

Jiro Akiba for The Wall Street Journal

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

How is Abenomics faring? The Wall Street Journal met Friday with the mastermind himself – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — to get his assessment. His answer: it seems to be going well so far, but the ultimate success hinges on his package of structural economic reforms currently being debated in parliament.

Actually, Mr. Abe put it a bit more colorfully. In the past, he has compared his aggressive economic stimulus program to a golfer using a sand wedge to get a ball out of the bunker and onto the green. (The bunker being deflation, the green presumably being healthy growth). So he was asked to extend the analogy and assess just where he thought the ball was right now.

“The ball is in the air, right above the green,” Mr. Abe said. Then, thinking about it a bit, he mixed his metaphors, adding: “whether the ball comes down on the green and goes into the hole, I think it is really dictated by the third arrow.”

Mr. Abe was referring to his package of restructuring and deregulation measures. It is the “third arrow” in his quiver, (or, perhaps, golf club bag), having already fired off the first arrow of a big boost in money supply from the Bank of Japan, and the second arrow of big new public works spending.

That raises the question: how close is that crucial third arrow to hitting its target?

Mr. Abe’s answer to that closely watched question was a bit vague.

“I recognize there’s a lot of criticism, that some people say that the policy for the third arrow lacks flashy features,” he said. “But I think what is important is the outcome.”

He hedged on how far he’d go on key questions, like curbing farm income support programs, or unfettered sales online of over-the-counter medications. “Rather than me giving you my conclusion, it’s important to see the opinions of experts,” he said at one point.

“Abenomics continues to evolve,” said Mr. Abe. “There is no end to Abenomics.”

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Japan Real Time is a newsy, concise guide to what works, what doesn’t and why in the one-time poster child for Asian development, as it struggles to keep pace with faster-growing neighbors while competing with Europe for Michelin-rated restaurants. Drawing on the expertise of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires, the site provides an inside track on business, politics and lifestyle in Japan as it comes to terms with being overtaken by China as the world’s second-biggest economy. You can contact the editors at japanrealtime@wsj.com