Sunday, January 29, 2017

The Art of the Deal

I wanted to take a moment to help people understand the day to day functioning of the Trump presidency.

(This is mostly so they will stop being surprised when he does very bad things with such distressing regularity)

Donald Trump's behavior has been well defined, and has been fairly consistent throughout his career.

But to be explicit, his basic operating principle is this: he will push as hard as he can, for the most extreme outcome imaginable. This does not represent a true desire for this extreme outcome, rather, it is merely a hard-line negotiating strategy (and one he has pursued extensively in his business careers).

By anchoring the offer beyond what he wants, he puts himself in a position to grudgingly accept a "compromise" that he wanted anyway. Look for many of these initial pushes to be moderated slightly in the coming weeks.

The administration's "decision" to allow green card holders back into the country is a great example, and we will likely see more to come.

It's just important to remember that Trump, for all his flaws, is not stupid. The reaction you have to these pronouncements is likely the one he intends, and is a small part of his administration's long-term plan. Watch for a lot of the initial RESISTANCE fervor to die down, as people become overwhelmed and exhausted of being outraged, settling into a resigned state of "well I guess he's not so bad now".