In this paper a statistical analysis of stated behaviour in emergency conditions is
proposed. The analyzed sample is extracted by people participating in a planning
transport seminar in June 2011. The analysis is finalized to evaluate user
behaviour in evacuation conditions in relation to formal transportation decisions
and in respect of the type of informer and the kind of dangerous event. Obtained
results show especially the importance of the informer.
Keywords: evacuation conditions, hypothetical scenarios.
1 Introduction
In the last few years, several scientific papers have focused on evacuation
simulation in emergency conditions. The simulation of user behaviour during an
evacuation is a very complex problem, as the behaviour depends on different
factors, such as the kind and entity of the dangerous event; socio-economic
characteristics of users; panic. Demand models specified and calibrated in
ordinary conditions cannot be directly applied for several reasons [1, 2]. The
international literature relating to evacuation conditions proposes many studies
which focus on the hurricane emergency case, by estimating demand models
based on revealed preference (RP) surveys. These are inferred from observations
of a decision maker’s actual choices, in relation to real contexts.
In much of the literature, two users’ decisions are simulated: whether to
evacuate and when. These decisions are generally simulated through a statistical
approach, using simple relationships such as averages, rates and distributions [3,
4]. A different way is to specify a model in which the analyst introduces a
probabilistic approach and hypothesizes the user decision [5]. In relation to
destination choice simulation, a disaggregate choice model for hurricane