Monday, September 16, 2002

Win Values: Updated for 1969, 1974-1977

More Win Values to sink your teeth into.

Introduction

The wonderful Retrosheet volunteers have recently released additional
seasons of play-by-play data.? Thus, I am now able to extend my win value
analysis for the 1969 & 1974-1977 seasons, in addition to the 1978-2001
seasons I reported in a previous article.

Yearly Results for 1969, 1974-1977

In this section I will report the top 10 Win Values for each league for
each of the newly released seasons by Retrosheet.[1]

Table 57A: 1969 AL Win Value Leaders

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Denny McLain

24-9

134

4.2

5.56

Mike Cuellar

23-11

150

4.8

4.54

Mel Stottlemyre

20-14

123

2.9

3.67

Sam McDowell

18-14

128

3.3

3.57

Fritz Peterson

17-16

137

3.7

3.39

Jim Perry

20-6

130

3.0

3.28

Blue Moon Odom

15-6

118

1.7

2.80

Andy Messersmith

16-11

138

3.5

2.71

Jim Palmer

16-4

153

3.1

2.46

Dick Bosman

14-5

158

3.6

2.23

Denny McLain and Mike Cuellar tied for the 1969 AL Cy Young award.?
McLain had the better W-L record while Cuellar had the better ERA.? Win values
indicate that McLain actually contributed more to his team.? McLain was coming
off his stellar 31-win 1968 season.? The Cy Young tie led to a change in the
balloting.? Starting in 1970 voters designated 1st, 2nd, 3rd place pitchers, whereas
previously they just voted for number one.? With this change, there hasn?t been
a Cy Young tie since 1969.

Table 57B: 1969 NL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Bob Gibson

20-13

164

6.2

6.60

Tom Seaver

25-7

166

5.5

6.32

Juan Marichal

21-11

167

5.9

5.94

Jerry Koosman

17-9

161

4.6

5.33

Steve Carlton

17-11

165

4.7

4.69

Bill Singer

20-12

142

4.7

4.39

Bill Hands

20-14

162

6.1

4.30

Phil Niekro

23-13

141

4.1

3.85

Larry Dierker

20-13

152

5.4

3.78

Fergie Jenkins

21-15

126

3.3

3.18

1969 was a great year for starting pitchers in the NL.? Gibson, Seaver,
and Marichal all had great seasons.? Seaver was the runaway winner of the Cy
Young award (remember the Miracle Mets), but both WAA and win values indicate
that Gibson was the best pitcher in the league.? Like Denny McLain, Gibson
followed up his stellar 1968 season with a great season of his own.? Of course,
this was not the first nor would be the last year in which Cy Young voters were
overly impressed by a pitcher?s W-L record (though I am not saying that Seaver
was not a deserving Cy Young winner).

Table 58A: 1974 AL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Gaylord Perry

21-13

144

5.1

5.30

Fergie Jenkins

25-12

126

3.5

4.77

Luis Tiant

22-13

132

3.9

4.71

Catfish Hunter

25-12

134

4.0

3.72

Nolan Ryan

22-16

119

2.6

3.62

Jim Kaat

21-13

128

3.1

3.61

Bert Blyleven

17-17

140

4.3

3.21

Al Fitzmorris

13-6

137

2.6

3.16

Steve Busby

22-14

113

1.7

3.15

Bart Johnson

10-4

136

1.6

2.94

Catfish Hunter edged Fergie Jenkins for the 1974 AL Cy Young award.?
Actually, according to both WAA and win values, Gaylord Perry was the league?s
best pitcher.? Perry had another very good year for the Indians after
previously winning the 1972 Cy Young award with Cleveland.? Note that this
was Jenkins? first year in the AL after being traded by the Cubs to Texas.? So the top two
pitchers in the AL in 1974 (according to win values) were both formerly stars in the NL.

Table 58B: 1974 NL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Phil Niekro

20-13

159

5.8

4.71

Jon Matlack

13-15

148

4.4

3.95

Jim Barr

13-9

139

3.5

3.77

Buzz Capra

16-8

166

4.5

3.77

Lynn McGlothen

16-12

133

3.0

3.41

Andy Messersmith

20-6

132

3.5

3.30

Larry Dierker

11-10

120

1.9

2.66

Jim Lonborg

17-13

118

2.2

2.48

Tommy John

13-3

132

1.8

2.43

Jim Rooker

15-11

125

2.5

1.87

Phil Niekro comfortably led the NL in both WAA and win values in 1974 .?
But Knucksie was destined never to come close to winning a Cy Young award.?
Mike Marshall and his 106 relief appearances copped the Cy Young for the pennant-winning
Dodgers.? We see that Jon Matlack had a losing record for the disappointing
Mets despite a great ERA.? Also, we see the remnants of the very promising
season in which Tommy John hurt his arm in mid-July.

Table 59A: 1975 AL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Jim Palmer

23-11

168

6.6

7.12

Jim Kaat

20-14

125

3.1

3.44

Catfish Hunter

23-14

143

4.9

3.42

Steve Busby

18-12

125

2.7

3.07

Frank Tanana

16-9

136

3.4

2.89

Bert Blyleven

15-10

128

3.2

2.41

Dennis Eckersley

13-7

146

3.0

2.25

Mike Torrez

20-9

115

1.7

2.15

Roger Moret

14-3

113

0.9

2.12

Ed Figueroa

16-13

122

2.2

1.90

Jim Palmer won the 1975 AL trifecta: winning the Cy Young award and leading the
league in WAA and win values.? This actually doesn?t happen very often.?
Palmer?s season was the 7th best win value figure since 1974 (including 1969).?
Actually, he edged out Catfish Hunter for the Cy Young award as the voters
continue to be obsessed with a pitcher?s win total, especially getting to 20
wins.? Not to mention that this was Hunter?s first year pitching for the
Yankees during which he received tremendous notoriety.? The Frank Tanana listed
above threw very hard (unlike his later self), and led the league with 269
strikeouts.

Table 59B: 1975 NL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Tom Seaver

22-9

146

4.4

4.73

Andy Messersmith

19-14

149

5.3

4.49

John Montefusco

15-9

132

3.1

4.31

Randy Jones

20-12

155

5.1

3.81

Jerry Reuss

18-11

140

3.5

3.75

Don Sutton

16-13

119

2.0

2.99

Don Gullet

15-4

149

2.6

2.76

Burt Hooton

18-9

112

1.9

2.49

Doug Rau

15-9

110

1.1

1.93

Bob Forsch

15-10

132

2.9

1.86

Tom Seaver edged Randy Jones for the 1975 NL Cy Young award.? I look
forward to Retrosheet eventually releasing all of the seasons covering Seaver?s
illustrious career since I am very curious in seeing how Seaver compares to the
other pitching greats of the modern era.? In our historical journey, we see
that Andy Messersmith had a great 1975 season for the Dodgers, the year before
he was declared a free agent (after which injuries allowed him to win only 18
games for the rest of his career).

Table 60A: 1976 AL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Mark Fidrych

19-9

159

4.9

5.95

Vida Blue

18-13

143

4.4

5.81

Frank Tanana

19-10

137

3.9

4.79

Jim Palmer

22-13

130

3.6

4.63

Bert Blyleven

13-16

125

2.4

4.05

Luis Tiant

21-12

128

3.2

3.51

Mike Torrez

16-12

134

3.4

2.48

Wayne Garland

20-7

123

2.1

2.19

Bill Travers

15-16

124

2.4

1.88

Dock Ellis

17-8

107

0.7

1.87

Jim Palmer won the 1976 AL Cy Young award.? Runner-up Mark Fidrych had
his moment in the sun, leading the league in WAA and win values.? Palmer won 22
games in 40 starts whereas Fidrych won 19 games in only 29 starts.? Maybe
Fidrych would have won the Cy Young had he gotten to 20 wins.? Vida Blue had
another very good year, despite only an 18-13 record.? Blue?s career prospects
might have never looked better than after his 27 year-old season; for his
career to date he was 110-67 with a very good 129 ERA+.?

Table 60B: 1976 NL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Don Sutton

21-10

111

1.3

3.74

Doug Rau

16-12

132

2.8

3.65

Jerry Koosman

21-10

123

2.2

3.62

Tom Seaver

14-11

127

2.8

3.40

Ray Burris

15-13

124

2.5

3.22

John Montefusco

16-14

128

2.8

3.12

Randy Jones

22-14

120

2.5

2.87

Steve Carlton

20-7

113

1.4

2.50

John Denny

11-9

140

3.0

2.44

J.R. Richard

20-15

116

1.9

2.35

1976 was a down year for NL starting pitchers.? Randy Jones won the Cy
Young award in a fairly close vote over Jerry Koosman.? John Denny (and his
11-9 record) led the league in WAA and Don Sutton (gasp) led the league in win
values.? If I were a Cy Young voter I may have looked for a relief pitcher, but
this was the year before Bruce Sutter broke on to the scene.

Table 61A: 1977 AL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Jim Palmer

20-11

131

3.7

5.50

Frank Tanana

15-9

155

4.4

4.13

Dennis Leonard

20-12

133

3.7

3.60

Nolan Ryan

19-16

142

4.5

3.48

Bert Blyleven

14-12

150

4.1

3.34

Ron Guidry

16-7

140

3.1

3.23

Dennis Eckersley

14-13

112

1.3

2.53

Gaylord Perry

15-12

122

2.2

2.40

Doyle Alexander

17-11

112

1.3

2.39

Dave Rozema

15-7

139

3.3

2.35

Sparky Lyle edged Jim Palmer (along with Nolan Ryan and Dennis Leonard)
for the 1977 AL Cy Young award.? I guess the voters were tired of voting for
Palmer every year; he had won 3 of the previous 4 Cy Youngs.? Palmer is another
pitcher for whom I would love to see the complete record of win value figures.?
We are currently missing the 1970-1973 seasons, in each of which Palmer had a
great season.

Table 61B: 1977 NL Win Value Leaders

>

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

John Candelaria

20-5

170

5.0

6.43

Rick Reuschel

20-10

158

5.0

5.67

Tom Seaver

21-6

150

4.6

5.12

Steve Carlton

23-10

152

5.1

4.35

Tommy John

20-7

138

3.1

3.28

J.R. Richard

18-12

120

2.2

3.26

Bob Forsch

20-7

111

1.1

2.95

Don Sutton

14-8

120

2.1

2.51

Burt Hooton

12-7

146

3.7

2.33

Steve Rogers

17-16

123

2.8

2.17

John Candelaria?s 170 ERA+ is the highest among this new batch of seasons
(1969, 1974-1977).? Of course, there have been numerous seasons with higher
ERA+ since 1977; in addition, there were five instances of a higher ERA+ in the
intervening 1970-1973 seasons (Seaver, Wood, and Blue in 1971, Carlton in 1972,
and Seaver again in 1973).? Steve Carlton easily won the 1977 NL Cy Young
award; he had a great season and the voters loved his 23 wins.? Carlton is
another modern pitcher for whom I?d love to have the complete win value
record.? Tom Seaver had another great year, despite being shockingly traded in
mid-June from the Mets to the Reds.

Top Starters

In this section I will present the partial season-by-season Win Value records for several of the top
starting pitchers of the 1970?s (whom I did not include in the previous
article).? In all cases, their entire careers to date will be presented.[2]?
I tried to include any pitcher who started a significant number of games in
their career in seasons for which we have win values data (1969, 1974-2001) and
had either 200 wins or 450 starts in their career.

Along with Win Values, I will
report the pitcher?s W-L, ERA+, and WAA figures.? We will then be able to see
if some pitchers? career Win Value significantly exceed their WAA.? In such a
case, the pitcher can be said to be under-valued by traditional sabermetric
methods.

We will now turn to a season-by-season review of each of these top starting
pitchers.[4]

Table 63: Win Values for Tom Seaver

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Tom Seaver

1967

16-13

123

2.3

n.a.

Tom Seaver

1968

16-12

137

3.0

n.a.

Tom Seaver

1969

25-7

166

5.5

6.32

Tom Seaver

1970

18-12

143

4.5

n.a.

Tom Seaver

1971

20-10

194

7.0

n.a.

Tom Seaver

1972

21-12

115

1.7

n.a.

Tom Seaver

1973

19-10

174

6.3

n.a.

Tom Seaver

1974

11-11

112

1.3

1.70

Tom Seaver

1975

22-9

146

4.4

4.73

Tom Seaver

1976

14-11

127

2.8

3.40

Tom Seaver

1977

21-6

150

4.6

5.12

Tom Seaver

1978

16-14

124

2.4

1.52

Tom Seaver

1979

16-6

119

1.7

2.20

Tom Seaver

1980

10-8

98

-0.2

0.40

Tom Seaver

1981

14-2

140

2.4

2.55

Tom Seaver

1982

5-13

67

-2.7

-2.13

Tom Seaver

1983

9-14

103

0.2

-0.85

Tom Seaver

1984

15-11

105

0.5

1.56

Tom Seaver

1985

16-11

136

3.4

2.81

Tom Seaver

1986

7-13

105

0.4

0.78

Career

311-205

127

51.5

54.91

70% of Seaver?s career is covered by win values (as another reminder, the
career win value figure in the table above uses the WAA figures for any seasons
for which win values are currently unavailable).? Tom Seaver is clearly an
all-time great.? Seaver falls just a little short of Clemens and Maddux in
career win values according to the table above.? But we will have more to say
about where Seaver belongs in the next section.

Table 64: Win Values for Jim Palmer

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Jim Palmer

1965

5-4

93

-0.1

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1966

15-10

96

-0.7

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1967

3-1

107

0.1

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1968

Dnp

-

-

-

Jim Palmer

1969

16-4

153

3.1

2.46

Jim Palmer

1970

20-10

134

3.9

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1971

20-9

125

2.8

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1972

21-10

149

4.3

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1973

22-9

156

5.5

n.a.

Jim Palmer

1974

7-12

106

0.4

0.63

Jim Palmer

1975

23-11

168

6.6

7.12

Jim Palmer

1976

22-13

130

3.6

4.63

Jim Palmer

1977

20-11

131

3.7

5.50

Jim Palmer

1978

21-12

142

4.4

4.02

Jim Palmer

1979

10-6

122

1.4

1.36

Jim Palmer

1980

16-10

100

-0.1

0.63

Jim Palmer

1981

7-8

97

-0.2

0.10

Jim Palmer

1982

15-5

129

2.6

3.34

Jim Palmer

1983

5-4

94

-0.3

0.15

Jim Palmer

1984

0-3

42

-1.3

-0.84

Career

268-152

125

39.7

44.90

67% of career covered by win values.? Jim Palmer was one of the very best pitchers
throughout the 1970?s, winning 20 games eight times.? Palmer?s win values are
moderately higher than WAA, and we are missing some of his best seasons (1970-1973).

Table 65: Win Values for Bert Blyleven

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Bert Blyleven

1970

10-9

117

1.2

n.a.

Bert Blyleven

1971

16-15

126

3.0

n.a.

Bert Blyleven

1972

17-17

118

2.1

n.a.

Bert Blyleven

1973

20-17

157

6.3

n.a.

Bert Blyleven

1974

17-17

140

4.3

3.21

Bert Blyleven

1975

15-10

128

3.2

2.41

Bert Blyleven

1976

13-16

125

3.0

4.05

Bert Blyleven

1977

14-12

150

4.1

3.34

Bert Blyleven

1978

14-10

122

2.2

2.02

Bert Blyleven

1979

12-5

108

0.8

0.72

Bert Blyleven

1980

8-13

95

-0.5

-0.10

Bert Blyleven

1981

11-7

126

1.7

2.01

Bert Blyleven

1982

2-2

84

-0.2

-0.48

Bert Blyleven

1983

7-10

109

0.6

0.21

Bert Blyleven

1984

19-7

143

3.8

3.06

Bert Blyleven

1985

17-16

134

4.0

2.70

Bert Blyleven

1986

17-14

108

0.9

1.20

Bert Blyleven

1987

15-12

116

1.9

2.48

Bert Blyleven

1988

10-17

75

-3.7

-2.44

Bert Blyleven

1989

17-5

140

3.5

4.12

Bert Blyleven

1990

8-7

73

-2.6

-2.08

Bert Blyleven

1991

Dnp

-

-

-

Bert Blyleven

1992

8-12

84

-1.3

-0.91

Career

287-250

118

38.3

38.12

82% of career is covered by win values.? I am confident that most people
reading this will already be familiar with the puzzling case of Bert Blyleven.?
By all sabermetric measures I have ever seen, Blyleven is a solid Hall of
Famer.? There are reasons why Bert is having so much trouble getting into Cooperstown,
but they are all crappy reasons.

Table 66: Win Values for Gaylord Perry

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Gaylord Perry

1962

3-1

73

-0.6

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1963

1-6

79

-0.6

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1964

12-11

130

1.6

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1965

8-12

86

-0.9

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1966

21-8

123

2.1

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1967

15-17

126

2.8

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1968

16-15

120

2.0

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1969

19-14

141

4.6

2.52

Gaylord Perry

1970

23-13

124

3.3

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1971

16-12

123

2.6

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1972

24-16

168

6.8

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1973

19-19

116

2.4

n.a.

Gaylord Perry

1974

21-13

144

5.1

5.30

Gaylord Perry

1975

18-17

117

2.2

1.87

Gaylord Perry

1976

15-14

111

1.3

1.47

Gaylord Perry

1977

15-12

122

2.2

2.40

Gaylord Perry

1978

21-6

122

2.3

1.99

Gaylord Perry

1979

12-11

116

1.6

1.95

Gaylord Perry

1980

10-13

106

0.6

-0.32

Gaylord Perry

1981

8-9

91

-0.6

0.33

Gaylord Perry

1982

10-12

97

-0.5

0.05

Gaylord Perry

1983

7-14

90

-1.2

-1.73

Career

314-265

117

39.1

37.33

55% of career covered by win values.? Gaylord Perry really was a great
pitcher, despite the reputation that has surrounded him for years.? He will
look even better when account is taken of his longevity in the next section.

Table 67: Win Values for Steve Carlton

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Steve Carlton

1965

0-0

153

0.2

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1966

3-3

115

0.4

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1967

14-9

110

0.9

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1968

13-11

97

-0.1

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1969

17-11

165

4.7

4.69

Steve Carlton

1970

10-19

111

1.2

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1971

20-9

101

0.2

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1972

27-10

182

8.2

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1973

13-20

98

-0.4

n.a.

Steve Carlton

1974

16-13

118

2.2

1.11

Steve Carlton

1975

15-14

105

0.6

1.09

Steve Carlton

1976

20-7

113

1.4

2.50

Steve Carlton

1977

23-10

152

5.1

4.35

Steve Carlton

1978

16-13

126

2.5

0.98

Steve Carlton

1979

18-11

106

0.7

1.47

Steve Carlton

1980

24-9

162

6.0

5.85

Steve Carlton

1981

13-4

150

3.3

2.69

Steve Carlton

1982

23-11

118

2.4

4.09

Steve Carlton

1983

15-16

115

1.7

1.47

Steve Carlton

1984

13-7

102

0.1

0.23

Steve Carlton

1985

1-8

111

0.5

-0.50

Steve Carlton

1986

9-14

83

-2.8

-2.79

Steve Carlton

1987

6-14

80

-2.3

-2.55

Steve Carlton

1988

0-1

24

-1.6

-0.26

Career

329-244

115

35.1

35.02

71% of career covered by win values.? Steve Carlton was a tremendous
pitcher.? I am very curious to see how win values evaluates Carlton?s fantastic
1972 season (27-10 for the woeful 59-97 Phillies).? Like many players, he
undoubtedly hung on too long but it is extremely difficult for any major
leaguer, and especially stars, to pick just the right time to retire.

Table 68: Win Values for Fergie Jenkins

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Fergie Jenkins

1965

2-1

158

0.3

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1966

6-8

111

0.4

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1967

20-13

127

3.0

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1968

20-15

120

2.2

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1969

21-15

126

3.3

3.18

Fergie Jenkins

1970

22-16

133

4.2

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1971

24-13

142

5.2

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1972

20-12

119

2.4

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1973

14-16

102

0.2

n.a.

Fergie Jenkins

1974

25-12

126

3.5

4.77

Fergie Jenkins

1975

17-18

96

-0.8

0.67

Fergie Jenkins

1976

12-11

120

1.8

1.70

Fergie Jenkins

1977

10-10

122

1.9

0.92

Fergie Jenkins

1978

18-8

124

2.4

3.26

Fergie Jenkins

1979

16-14

102

0.0

0.71

Fergie Jenkins

1980

12-12

103

0.3

1.47

Fergie Jenkins

1981

5-8

77

-1.5

-0.90

Fergie Jenkins

1982

14-15

119

1.8

0.49

Fergie Jenkins

1983

6-9

88

-1.2

-0.54

Career

284-226

115

29.4

33.63

60% of career covered by win values.? Fergie Jenkins was a consistent
20-game winner for the Cubs in the late 1960?s/early 1970?s.? One key to his
success was that Jenkins did not walk many batters (a key to winning in a
hitter?s ballpark).

Table 69: Win Values for Nolan Ryan

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Nolan Ryan

1966

0-1

24

-0.6

n.a.

Nolan Ryan

1967

Dnp

-

-

-

Nolan Ryan

1968

6-9

98

-0.5

n.a.

Nolan Ryan

1969

6-3

104

0.1

-0.02

Nolan Ryan

1970

7-11

118

1.0

n.a.

Nolan Ryan

1971

10-14

86

-1.3

n.a.

Nolan Ryan

1972

19-16

128

2.9

n.a.

Nolan Ryan

1973

21-16

124

3.1

n.a.

Nolan Ryan

1974

22-16

119

2.6

3.62

Nolan Ryan

1975

14-12

103

0.2

0.87

Nolan Ryan

1976

17-18

99

0.0

1.62

Nolan Ryan

1977

19-16

142

4.5

3.48

Nolan Ryan

1978

10-13

97

-0.5

0.07

Nolan Ryan

1979

16-14

114

1.3

1.05

Nolan Ryan

1980

11-10

98

-0.2

0.22

Nolan Ryan

1981

11-5

195

3.5

2.66

Nolan Ryan

1982

16-12

105

0.6

1.53

Nolan Ryan

1983

14-9

114

1.2

2.10

Nolan Ryan

1984

12-11

109

0.8

0.68

Nolan Ryan

1985

10-12

91

-1.2

-0.38

Nolan Ryan

1986

12-8

108

0.7

0.77

Nolan Ryan

1987

8-16

142

3.2

2.41

Nolan Ryan

1988

12-11

95

-0.6

-0.43

Nolan Ryan

1989

16-10

124

2.3

2.80

Nolan Ryan

1990

13-9

114

1.2

1.01

Nolan Ryan

1991

12-6

139

2.4

3.20

Nolan Ryan

1992

5-9

102

0.1

0.14

Nolan Ryan

1993

5-5

85

-0.7

-0.95

Career

324-292

112

26.1

31.05

80% of career covered by win values.? There is almost no way to
accurately capture Nolan Ryan?s career.? He is the most extreme in many
dimensions, so if there is any slight ?bias? in a stat, it will be magnified
the most for Ryan.? Win values indicate that Ryan truly was a great pitcher
during his career (note that win values are moderately higher than WAA).?
Remember that win values looks at run prevention in its totality; that is, it
does not consider whether the pitcher was a strikeout artist or a control
pitcher who relies on his defense.? I guess that means that win values may
undervalue Ryan.

Table 70: Win Values for Phil Niekro

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Phil Niekro

1964

0-0

73

-0.1

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1965

2-3

122

0.5

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1966

4-3

88

-0.3

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1967

11-9

178

3.8

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1968

14-12

116

1.5

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1969

23-13

141

4.1

3.85

Phil Niekro

1970

12-18

101

0.0

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1971

15-14

125

2.7

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1972

16-12

124

2.9

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1973

13-10

119

2.0

n.a.

Phil Niekro

1974

20-13

159

5.8

4.71

Phil Niekro

1975

15-15

118

2.2

1.61

Phil Niekro

1976

17-11

115

1.8

2.13

Phil Niekro

1977

16-20

110

1.7

-0.41

Phil Niekro

1978

19-18

141

5.1

2.76

Phil Niekro

1979

21-20

120

3.0

1.06

Phil Niekro

1980

15-18

103

0.4

1.06

Phil Niekro

1981

7-7

116

1.0

0.47

Phil Niekro

1982

17-4

104

0.5

0.50

Phil Niekro

1983

11-10

98

-0.3

0.67

Phil Niekro

1984

16-8

123

2.0

2.03

Phil Niekro

1985

16-12

98

-0.3

0.64

Phil Niekro

1986

11-11

96

-0.6

-2.11

Phil Niekro

1987

7-13

73

-3.1

-1.41

Career

318-274

115

36.3

30.56

70% of career covered by win values.? Phil Niekro racked up a ton of
innings in his career.? In the middle of his career, he started over 40 games
three seasons in a row (and over 300 innings).? Note that Niekro?s win values
seems significantly lower than WAA.? I am not sure why.? Possibly Niekro gave
up a lot of unearned runs in his career, which would be reflected in his win
values (but not his WAA).

Table 71: Win Values for Don Sutton

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Don Sutton

1966

12-12

110

1.0

n.a.

Don Sutton

1967

11-15

79

-2.7

n.a.

Don Sutton

1968

11-15

106

0.5

n.a.

Don Sutton

1969

17-18

96

-0.6

-0.37

Don Sutton

1970

15-13

94

-0.9

n.a.

Don Sutton

1971

17-12

127

2.7

n.a.

Don Sutton

1972

19-9

160

5.2

n.a.

Don Sutton

1973

18-10

142

3.7

n.a.

Don Sutton

1974

19-9

106

0.7

1.61

Don Sutton

1975

16-13

119

2.0

2.99

Don Sutton

1976

21-10

111

1.3

3.74

Don Sutton

1977

14-8

120

2.1

2.51

Don Sutton

1978

15-11

99

-0.3

-0.42

Don Sutton

1979

12-15

95

-0.7

-1.07

Don Sutton

1980

13-5

159

4.0

4.40

Don Sutton

1981

11-9

126

1.6

1.37

Don Sutton

1982

17-9

112

1.3

1.65

Don Sutton

1983

8-13

92

-1.1

-0.29

Don Sutton

1984

14-12

102

0.1

0.30

Don Sutton

1985

15-10

101

0.0

1.29

Don Sutton

1986

15-11

110

0.8

1.96

Don Sutton

1987

11-11

92

-1.0

-0.07

Don Sutton

1988

3-6

85

-0.7

-0.89

Career

324-256

108

19.0

28.21

68% of career covered by win values.? Don Sutton was a notorious Hall of
Fame case a few years back, but win values is pretty kind to Sutton, especially
in comparison to WAA.

Table 72: Win Values for Tommy John

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Tommy John

1963

0-2

164

0.2

n.a.

Tommy John

1964

2-9

92

-0.3

n.a.

Tommy John

1965

14-7

103

0.8

n.a.

Tommy John

1966

14-11

121

2.0

n.a.

Tommy John

1967

10-13

126

2.4

n.a.

Tommy John

1968

10-5

153

2.8

n.a.

Tommy John

1969

9-11

119

2.0

1.60

Tommy John

1970

12-17

119

2.2

n.a.

Tommy John

1971

13-16

100

-0.1

n.a.

Tommy John

1972

11-5

115

1.3

n.a.

Tommy John

1973

16-7

111

1.1

n.a.

Tommy John

1974

13-3

132

1.8

2.43

Tommy John

1975

Dnp

-

-

-

Tommy John

1976

10-10

110

0.9

0.34

Tommy John

1977

20-7

138

3.1

3.28

Tommy John

1978

17-10

107

0.5

-0.27

Tommy John

1979

21-9

138

3.9

3.92

Tommy John

1980

22-9

115

1.7

3.16

Tommy John

1981

9-8

136

2.0

1.56

Tommy John

1982

14-12

108

0.9

0.57

Tommy John

1983

11-13

93

-1.0

-0.68

Tommy John

1984

7-13

88

-1.4

-0.69

Tommy John

1985

4-10

72

-1.8

-1.08

Tommy John

1986

5-3

140

1.0

1.12

Tommy John

1987

13-6

109

0.7

0.54

Tommy John

1988

9-8

88

-1.4

0.06

Tommy John

1989

2-7

67

-1.7

-1.57

Career

288-231

110

23.6

26.69

65% of career covered by win values.? Tommy John missed a season in
mid-career, but more than made up for it by pitching until he was 46.? Tommy
John is a tough Hall of Fame call, though he is clearly greater than many HOF
pitchers.?

Table 73: Win Values for Luis Tiant

>

Year

W-L

ERA+

WAA

Win Value

Luis Tiant

1964

10-4

127

1.1

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1965

11-11

99

-0.3

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1966

12-11

123

1.5

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1967

12-9

119

1.6

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1968

21-9

185

4.2

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1969

9-20

102

0.2

-1.21

Luis Tiant

1970

7-3

110

0.4

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1971

1-7

76

-1.2

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1972

15-6

169

3.6

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1973

20-13

120

2.3

n.a.

Luis Tiant

1974

22-13

132

3.9

4.71

Luis Tiant

1975

18-14

102

0.2

1.85

Luis Tiant

1976

21-12

128

3.2

3.51

Luis Tiant

1977

12-8

99

-0.1

0.72

Luis Tiant

1978

13-8

125

2.1

2.82

Luis Tiant

1979

13-8

105

0.3

0.71

Luis Tiant

1980

8-9

80

-1.8

-1.00

Luis Tiant

1981

2-5

92

-0.2

-0.75

Luis Tiant

1982

2-2

70

-0.6

-0.07

Career

229-172

114

20.4

24.49

58% of career covered by win values.? Luis Tiant also missed significant
time in mid-career with a bad arm.? His Hall of Fame case seems to be centered
on the fact that he was better than Catfish Hunter.

Reader Comments and Retorts

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When you present a sound methodology, and data, with reasonable assumptions, with very little interpretation, there's very little to "debate". But, I just want to say thanks for the probably many countless hours you spent to run this.

In a hitters' park (PF>100), WinProb2(RS,Z,PN)>WinProb2(RS,Z,PF) which makes ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)>0. When PF<100, ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)<0. That is what is reflected in Part 6, Table 8 and the text that follows. For instance, Wells' 4/8 game at Tex had a ParkAdder>0 and Wells' 4/24 game at Oak had a ParkAdder<0.

However, in Part 4, Eq. 7, ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF) is given as

ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)=PAddPct(RS)*(2*(100-PF))*(Z/9)+

which produces the opposite sign. I believe Eq. 7 in Part 4 needs to be corrected to

ParkAdder(RS,Z,PF)=PAddPct(RS)*(2*(PF-100))*(Z/9)+

From the tables and the text it appears the calculations were correctly made using this last equation.

Thanks Tango for your kind words. Yes, compiling and running the data through the Win Value routines takes hours. But the longer part, and the most fun, was developing the methodology in the first place. Of course, the tireless Retrosheet volunteers deserve a tremendous amount of credit (and gratitude) for doing all the original data collection and computerization. Thanks again to those good folks.

I fear that emancip8d has caught an error in one of the formulas. As he suggests, the error is only in the exposition and not in the analysis. Thanks for catching the error. I will see if the error can be corrected and the article re-posted.