Poll of the Day Recap: 55% Say $TWTR's Next Stop is $22/Share

Takeaway:It's been tough sledding for TWTR bulls.

Twitter shares got totally shellacked yesterday, dropping almost 18% after its IPO lock-up period ended. Shares finished trading around $32. Today hasn't fared much better for Twitter bulls with shares off around 4%. TWTR is down a remarkable 27% over the last five trading days.

We wanted to know where you thought shares were headed next. So we asked your opinion in today’s poll: What’s the next stop for Twitter? $22/share or $42/share?

At the time of this post, 55% said Twitter will soon be trading at $22; 45% said $42.

Of the majority who said trading would drop to $22/share, voters had these diverse explanations:

“In this type of market environment, where mo mo gets killed, $22 is more likely than $42. Especially, after reading some comments from people that voted $42, they seem still are long this thing.”

“It'll follow the same pattern as Facebook; go down (as it has), but eventually climb back up. Though the product is mature, the business still isn't, but Dick Costolo will figure it out.”

“It's going to $15.”

“Both prices look arbitrary, but the stock price looks likely to break down, making new lows. Longer term, I would expect it to stabilize at higher prices. This is a real business model and probably still has growth ahead.”

Here’s what some voters who think Twitter shares are headed to $42/share next (if not more) had to say:

“I am long of Twitter in hashtag terms.I close my eyes and cross one finger over the other and wish upon this falling star. It’s a process.”

“The share price will settle around $45. That seems to be a fair price.”

“To call this a ‘bubble’ is non-sense. Most investors lived through the bubble and this is not the same as 1999. To be temporarily over-valued on hype does not necessarily equal a bubble. Twitter will create a real and sustainable business out of this; one that'll exceed $42 at some point in the next 18-24 months.

The phoenix will rise again. It needed a serious correction (which it got), and it'll probably dip a little further, but this will go back up to $42 in the next year or two. Getting this stock in the mid-20's would be perfect, even if it dipped into the low 20's for a period thereafter. They have a great management team, and lots more potential for the product (and revenue).

KSS Short - Why JCP is the Risk (And Opportunity)

Takeaway:We will be hosting a call titled KSS Short: Why JCP is the Risk (And Opportunity) on Tuesday May 13th at 1pm ET.

We will be hosting a call titled KSS Short: Why JCP is the Risk (And Opportunity) on Tuesday, May 13th at 1:00pm ET to discuss our current short thesis on KSS.We will detail some of the underappreciateddynamics that currently exist between Kohl's and JCP.

Retail Shocker: 89% Wouldn’t Care if Target Left Canada | $TGT

Takeaway From Brian McGough:

This is a snap of a poll we found on Canada's Globe and Mail site. Whether or not you believe in the validity of these straw polls, it’s hard to ignore the opinion of 10,000+ people. A quick note on the sample, we stress-tested the system to see if we could vote multiple times (which would therefore inflate the negative sentiment) - but, no dice. These results seem like they're for real.

It's particularly interesting that those who say they will miss Target in Canada totals 11%. Given that 11% of Canadian citizens had shopped at a Target in the US in the 12 months prior to Canada's opening it leads us to believe that a good chunk of the 11% who say they will miss TGT Canada were already established US shoppers.

To us this means that 1) Target Canada has yet to establish meaningful brand equity outside of its carry over customers from the US, and 2) customers missing Target in Canada is mostly a function of convenience.

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Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research excerpt from Hedgeye Retail sector head Brian McGough. Follow McGough on Twitter @HedgeyeRetail.

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