10-22-2013 AFL Update

About 2 weeks into the AFL season now. Of note is Kyle Simon’s nice outing yesterday. Looks like he’ll be used as a starter every fifth day. Will be interesting to see how the league handles him (or the top of the league’s lineups, anyway), when they get to see him a second time around in the same game. He was not great with the Baltimore org as a starter in 2012, and was thriving as a reliever in Reading.

Zach Collier isn’t setting the AFL on fire but as a guy who has never been above A ball he is certainly holding his own at the plate. I really think that at this point that he has to be a lock to be protected on the 40 man.

Definitely interesting to see Collier doing well. Question is, is it talent, etc. or does he just have more in the tank than some of these guys? I, of course, am hoping it’s the former. Either way was surprised initially when I saw his name on the list for the AFL and glad he’s doing well. At minimum (right now of course – things can change) has to be a confidence boost for him.

Yeah, it’s hard to believe, but it’s really not too late for Collier. He will be 22 this year at Reading, which is perfectly age appropriate. For what it’s worth, 22 was the age at which Brown took off and Reading was where it happened. Collier has to be on the short list for this year’s breakout candidates. He could go from being a question mark to a top 150 prospect very quickly. The tools are all there and he’s now showing signs of flashing the power we all hoped was there.

no doubt, He had 6 HR 22 XBH and 11 SB in only 283 ABs at Clearwater this year. Which is very productive with a decent 270 AVG 333 OBP. I also like Kelly Dugan alot who finished the year at lakewood. 6’3 195 22 yearr old who was a second round pick in 2009, he hit .300 AVG slugged 12 HR and 33 2B in 430 ABs, and to top that he plays a great RF. He is one to keep an eye on.

If the rumors aren’t true about Franco starting in AA, I could see a quick move of Asche to AAA and Franco to AA to make room in the 3B log jam. He is becoming polished very quickly and I would rather see him in the hitting environment of Reading to the extreme pitcher park of Clearwater.

Tyson Gillies…Sun Oct 21, 2012….’With the Lara Cardenales, outfielder Tyson Gillies, who has steadily concerned both the Phillies organization and its fans with his long list of injury troubles and his off-field issues, is currently sidelined with a right hamstring strain. In four contests, the British Columbia native who turns 24-year-old on Halloween, went 7-for-15 (.467 average) with a double and a triple while driving in two runs. Gillies knows his body well following a stream of hamstring and foot issues in recent years and proclaimed, via Twitter last week, that he would be okay. Right now, the lefty hitting prospect is day-to-day and is expected to return to action by mid-week’.

Shreve is having a good fall season. In a hitter’s paradise, he’s gone 6 2/3 innings and given up 4 hits and a run. Best of all he has no BBs. The BB’s were killing him in AA. If he continues like this, someone will take a flyer on him in the Rule 5. Sorry about the hockey reference.

The huge concern is the lack of strikeouts. I agree that he is an interesting guy to take in the Rule 5 for some team looking for a long man. Somehow young hard throwing relievers has become a strength for this team so I don’t think Shreve really has a place here long term.

Is it reasonable for me to be getting a little excited about Galvis? SSS, level of competition, and so on, I know, I know. But wow he’s looking good.

Obviously I have no idea if he can (for a season or two) make a smooth transition to third base. If he can do so – and I don’t just mean be adequate there, but provide the same plus defense he provides at 2B and SS – I’m beginning to buy into him as a stop gap, especially given the alternatives. Then, depending upon what happens with Utley after next year, maybe a year or two at second, before sliding into the SS job in 2015 or 2016 (or trade bait at that point if Quinn sticks at SS and is ready by then).

Wow, you’re about the last guy that I expected to fall hard for Galvis based on a good week in Venezuela. Its too soon to think that he just shifted from a 220 hitter to a good hitter. He does have a terrifc glove and great hands with a solid arm and can play anywhere in the infield.

He’2 22. It’s reasonable to expect – I would say, it’s the norm – to expect further development from a guy who got 200 PA in the major leagues as a 22 year old.

Power is one area where young players often make significant strides – and where smaller sample sizes often have meaning. On the one hand, Galvis does not have a prototypical power hitter’s body. On the other hand, we’re not just talking about one week in Venzeuala. We’re talking now about a trend line over more than 2 years at multiple levels (and, FWIW, more than a week now in Venezuala).

He has other strengths and potential strengths. He makes decent contact. In 2012, that still only translated to a .226 BA, but looking at the whole picture I wouldn’t be shocked to see him hit over .250 next year.

Let’s say he is a guy who can hit .260/.310/.420 next year That’s optimistic, but basically simply assumes slightly better BIP performance (luck or otherwise), about 10 to 15 HR, and a marginal increase in his BB rate. Nothing spectacular. Now, is that a profile of a star? No. But that roughly what an average third baseman hit this year. Add in (hopefully) plus defense, and that’s a decent short term solution.

Fangraphs says ISO is the last stat to normalize for a hitter (550 PAs) so I’d disagree that power has more meaning in a SSS. That’s a pretty ambitious line for Galvis. He’d have to hit 40 doubles, 10 triples, and 10 homers over 600 PAs to get there. He might eventually be that player, but I wouldn’t want to go into next season counting on that. He’d probably be closer to .250/.300/.360. Even with superb defense at 3B, I’m not sure if that’s good enough.

Two things: Any sudden surge in power will also represent a reason for worry for me, as the next time he tests positive he’s going away for a long time. I’m not casting aspersions in a random way, he’s already tested positive once, and I think that–just as a soccer manager has to be careful with a player who’s already been issued a yellow card–we are going to need to be careful about counting on Galvis being the long-term solution to anything, at least until he tests clean for an extended period.

(Yes, yes, I realize he has excuses and I’m not judging his character–I’m just making a practical point about resource allocation. He’s one errant drop of urine away from a 100-game suspension, so we should be wary about installing him as a starter.)

I like the idea of turning down Polanco’s option and bringing him back on a reasonable one-year deal, with the idea that he would be a bench player who would get a couple starts a week at 3rd and 2nd, serving as an insurance policy against either Galvis or Utley missing significant time, and serving a a RH bat off the bench. His contact skills would be useful late-game situations where you need to move a runner or get a run in from third.

I’ve seen Galvis for a few years now and his body type changed quite a bit in the last two years as he’s gotten much stronger. While that is very normal for a guy now 22 years old, the roid use is very concerning to me. I’m hopeful he can continue his upward hitting trend without the juice. Its hard for me to see him hitting 10 -15 next year be he did surprise me this year with his occassional power. Let’s hope…

There are two seperate issues here, PEDs and reasonable expectations. I’m going to pass on PEDs, but as for reasonable expectations, his 2012 major league HR numbers project out to 9 in a full season, so I hardly think 10-15 is a stretch, especially given this age and trend line. It’s not as if I’m projecting him to all of the sudden become a great hitter, I’m projecting him, granted somewhat optimistically, to become an average hitter. Given his trajectory as a hitter, I don’t think that’s out of line.

Of course that brings us back to PEDs. If one thinks that his trajectory as a hitter can be linked mainly to PEDs use, I guess you might be sceptical about whether that trajectory can continue without PEDs.

Remember what the options are here, though. None of the FA options are terribly palatable, Asche isn’t ready, and trade options are mostly pie in the sky. All I’m saying is that I’m increasinbgly liking the option of going with Galvis/Frandsen, and hoping either than Galvis continues to develop, or that Frandsen’s 2012 wasn’t a total fluke (granted that best case scenario his BA will be lower). Well, not “liking,” exactly, more acepting it as the least bad option. (Or if not Frandsen, some other cheap option as a fallback if Galvis can’t handle it.)

The power numbers take longer to normalize so you can’t just extrapolate his line from last year. But to get to .260/.310/.420 you also need 40 doubles and 10 triples. Galvis might end up being the best option, but he’s not a good option.

But we’re not just looking at 200 major league PA, were looking at minor league data and winter league data as well, and we’re looking at a trend line. Also HR normalizes more quickly than ISO.

The doubles/triples argument makes more sense, but you’re off on the numbers a bit. Only off by a little if he hits 10 HR, but off by a lot if he hits 15 HR. At 15 HR, given my other assumptions and 600 PA, you’re talking more like 30 doubles and 5 triples, achievable IMO. I’ll stipulate that with only 10 HR a .420 SLG is probably out of reach, but with 15 HR it is quite achievable, again given my other assumptions.

Now, all of this falls apart if his power trend line was caused by PEDs. Otherwise, for a guy his age and with his trend line, I’ll absolutely stand by what I said: optimistic but achievable. (If anything, the OBP may be more unrealistic, as, even with a .260 BA, it assumes a significantly better BB%.)

To be sure, I’ll be very curious to see what Galvis looks like in spring training. I want to see his body type and how much it changed from this year because it will have. I remain optimistic that a better solution for 3B will be available. Even Chavez platooning with Frandsen, with Galvis in the utility role, looks better to me. You know I like Asche but he needs to spend most of 2013 in LHV because he still needs at bats.

And Asche needs to improve his fielding too. I believe that Asche will be in Philadelphia sometime in 2013 – I said that when he was in Clearwater. But I think, unless he goes berserk with his hitting, you are looking at a late season call-up.

Scutaro has been a decent starter for seveal years while Frandsen was never thought to be on that level. However, Scutaro is older now so maybe they’re closer but Scutaro is definitely much better defensively.

I am getting excited if he plays short or second. At those positions all he needs to do his approach average at the plate and he is really valuable. In 58 games this year Freddy accumulated 1.1 defensive WAR, extrapolate that over a season at second (he would have more value at short) he is a 3 win player if he isn’t a negative at the plate (he was -0.4 offensive WAR this past year)

Agreed. If Freddy is a replacement value hitter, he’s an above average regular at second or short. If he develops into an okay but not great hitter with, say, a 1-1.5 WAR offensive component, he’s such a great fielder that he becomes a borderline star. These outcomes are reasonable and more than possible. Of course, it’s even possible that he develops into a good hitter and, if that happens, he would be a minor star in the mold of a mid-career Omar Vizquel. Don’t forget, Freddy performed well this year in Philly and may really have been hurt the entire time. Aside from that, he essentially skipped AAA altogether, so there’s a lot to dream on. In the last year, he has gone from being a grade C prospect to being a grade B+ prospect. That’s pretty good.

Biddle, Colvin manning the rotation a long with Bonilla killing in the pen, LF Jiwan James, CF Zach Collier, RF Kelly Dugan getting to everything in the air and alpha male (apperantly) C Tommy Joseph, 3B Maikel Franco being a stud out there at the hot corner, Ladies and Gentlemen you 2012 Reading Phillies, will be a very exciting team to watch!

That is selling that team short, the rest of that rotation will include Wright, Morgan, and likely May or Martin. At shortstop you should have Duran who is at least interesting. I don’t even know if Bonilla is the closer (they might like him getting multiple innings), and if he isn’t you have Giles and a 100mph fastball at the back of the pen.

I expect Dugan will start at RF in CWater while Hewitt starts in LF at Reading. I also don’t think Franco will start in Reading, he’ll be in CWater with Martinez in Reading to get him at bats. Harold Garcia, who is playing mostly 3B this winter, will play there also. I’m most interested to see how they handle the Valle/Joseph/Rupp playing time situation because they all need to play and Rupp needs to be up at Reading. A Valle trade is not automatic.