How will Brexit actually affect your holiday?

We're all in the departure
lounge - we just don't know where we're going. The EU referendum
campaign and Leave decision generated all manner of speculation
about how British travellers will be affected. A lot of it has been
tosh. Let me sort out what will change, and what won't, with an
uncertainty scale from 0 to 10. Zero means it definitely won't
happen, 10 signals it definitely will.

MONEY

'You should get your holiday money now before
sterling slumps further'
Likelihood: 5

I'm a tourist, not an international financial dealer, and
frankly even the professionals have no idea what will happen to the
pound after its worst plunge for three decades. Some say the
speculators are going to drive sterling down further, others insist
the currency's fundamentals are strong - and things can only get
better. You might want to hedge - buying half now, and the
remainder shortly before departures.

When sterling 'fell off a cliff' the morning after the vote, any
organisation that changes money had to adjust to the new rates.
Most banks and bureaux de change did this very quickly, but in a
few odd locations it took several hours for hotels and other
moneychangers to ascertain the right rates. So, for a short time,
they wouldn't accept sterling. But everything was back to normal
quickly. Foreign exchange is a profitable business for lots of
enterprises, and however poorly the pound, there's money to be
made.

All kinds of nonsense has been talked about credit and debit
cards issued by UK banks, too. It appears that one malfunctioning
ATM on the Greek island of Kos triggered a social media frenzy of
'penniless Brits'. And there was also a rumour going around that
banks were charging £40 a pop for using ATMs with British cards. I
asked for evidence of this, but none was forthcoming.

Having said that, the worse condition sterling is in, the more
the need to maximise your money. So compare rates for euros and
dollars online and consider ordering in advance and picking up at
the airport - or shop around on the high street. For most other
currencies, including Croatian kuna and Turkish lira, take cash and
change it at your destination.

And as for plastic: use a foreign exchange fee-free credit card,
such as Halifax Clarity.

RED TAPE

'Starting now, UK citizens have to use the
non-EU passport queues'
Likelihood: 0

Nothing changes in terms of documents or procedures until the
day the UK leaves the European Union.

'But we will eventually face longer
lines…'
Likelihood: 1

Even when we say a tearful adieu/auf wiedersehen/adios to the
EU, it is likely we will remain part of a broader European Economic
Area, along with Norway, Iceland and plucky Liechtenstein. Their
citizens can join the EU passport queues.

'At least we'll get those lovely
midnight-blue, hard-cover British passports back as soon as we
leave'
Likelihood: 0

Those handsome documents are history. Passports must now meet
global standards on size and design - set not by Brussels, but by
the International Civil Aviation Organisation. All British
passports issued between now and the date of our exit must continue
to show the words "European Union" on the front cover. When we
leave, it is unthinkable that the UK Passport Office will re-issue
everyone's travel documents. Instead, they will be gradually phased
out over 10 years and replaced with a new design. Which may have a
midnight-blue cover. But a soft one.

CHEAP FLIGHTS

'Fares are going to soar…'
Likelihood: 3

On your behalf, I checked with the chief executives of the three
big airlines serving the UK: easyJet, IAG (owner of British
Airways) and Ryanair. The first two said "no," but the Irish
airline said 'yes'.

'…and routes will be cut'
Likelihood: 7

That's my estimation. While easyJet, Ryanair and IAG all have
their biggest area of operation in the UK, they also have big
European networks. If the UK economy slumps, I would expect them to
move their planes to more profitable routes.

MOBILE PHONES

'We'll be back to the bad old days of
£2-a-minute roaming charges'
Likelihood: 2

At present UK travellers benefit from 'caps' on mobile-phone
charges, which limit costs to a few pence per call, text or
megabyte. By next June those fall to zero. Once we are out of the
EU, the caps would not apply - but I reckon no UK government would
allow mobile-phone firms to introduce high charges again.

Simon Calder is 'the man who pays his way', an
independent travel journalist and the senior travel editor of The
Independent. Follow him on Twitter @SimonCalder