The early stages of the Iowa caucus campaign are sort of like the draft in a fantasy baseball league. Everybody wants to put on a manager hat and decide who gets to play.

Every cycle, we hear all the theories about why certain candidates can’t or shouldn’t appear on Iowa’s field. They may be too famous, or too obscure. Too rich, or too poor. Some aren’t folksy enough to connect with real people; others lack presidential gravitas. Iowa is too white, too old, too rural.

Then there’s the one we’re hearing this year: If you can’t cut it as a religious conservative, you might as well skip Iowa and wait for New Hampshire.

In the 2012 cycle, this advice is aimed most often at Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor appears to be moving toward a presidential run, and leads many national polls. But he hasn’t set foot in Iowa since October, when he stumped for Gov. Terry Branstad. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Romney left out Iowa in a speech to fundraisers outlining key states for a 2012 campaign.

Romney has said that if he runs, he’ll campaign in Iowa. David Kochel, an Iowa political consultant who has been working with Romney, says that’s still the former governor’s plan. He does not expect Romney will appear in Iowa before he announces plans for an exploratory committee, however.

So, he’ll show up. That leaves a lot to the imagination. Romney could drop in to Iowa for the debates and a few other events without organizing much of a campaign here.

Ron Kaufman of Massachusetts is a former White House political director under President George H.W. Bush and a friend and former business partner of Branstad. Kaufman was in Iowa in March to observe the Branstad campaign.

Kaufman said he expects Romney to “play” in Iowa, if he runs for president, “as he’ll play in New Hampshire and South Carolina and other states. And how he plays and how it goes will be I’m sure different than last time. His team is smart enough to understand that every cycle is different.”

Tim Albrecht, 2008 press secretary for Romney’s Iowa campaign, said he thinks the former governor will have a team in Iowa, but that Romney will also be in a position to campaign in a lot more states at the same time.

“Last time, he really had to focus on essentially four states. Now, he can focus on 40,” Albrecht said.

He attributes Romney’s current position in part to the exposure he received in Iowa, where candidates have a bullhorn to the rest of the nation.

“That’s what he got in Iowa, and he was able to catapult himself to a national leadership role in the party as a result,” Albrecht said.

Now a spokesman for Branstad, Albrecht says he’ll be neutral in the 2012 caucuses. Branstad hasn’t ruled out endorsing a candidate.

Romney has plenty of reason to be cautious in Iowa. In 2008, his campaign spent, by some accounts, as much as $10 million here. His second-place caucus finish to Mike Huckabee was a severe blow that many have attributed to the muscle of Christian conservatives. Some see a similar problem in Iowa for Romney in 2012.

Values before pocketbook?

Romney is a moderate on social issues the way Branstad is: only by comparison to purists in the party. Romney opposes same-sex marriage and abortion, although he took his knocks in his last campaign for his position favoring abortion rights before 2005.

However, like Branstad, he has made it clear he intends to target the economy and jobs.

“One of the things that’s important in running a good campaign is to make sure that you’re known for the things that really motivate you, and I needed to do a better job to focus my campaign on the economy and getting the economy right and creating jobs,” he told CBS News in March 2010.

Social conservatives in Iowa have pushed for a higher profile for values-related issues. The ouster of three Iowa Supreme Court justices in the 2010 election was seen as a siren call that GOP voters will rally around same-sex marriage and other morality issues.

Christian-right and conservative groups have hosted all of the multi-candidate forums in Iowa so far this year. Speakers at each event have shot barbs at Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels for saying Republicans should call a truce on social issues for now and focus on glaring budget problems.

The tenor of the events was so worrisome to Iowa GOP activist Doug Gross that he told the New York Times that Iowa was in danger of making its caucuses irrelevant.

“We look like Camp Christian out here,” he said.

Iowa also has a history of elevating religious-right candidates with dynamic personalities but short survival rates: Mike Huckabee, the 2008 winner, and second-place finishers Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Pat Robertson in 1988.

But that doesn’t mean economy-focused candidates should bypass the Hawkeye State.

Trimble-Ray says the number of Iowa Republicans who will vote solely on social issues is shrinking. They want to be assured their candidate is with them on issues like abortion or marriage, she said, “but they don’t want to hear it repeatedly. And they want to shift the attention to the issues that are otherwise occupying their mind.” Right now, she said, that’s the economy and national security.

Ryan Rhodes, chairman of the Iowa Tea Party, has been traveling with the potential campaigns in Iowa.

“Look, a variety of candidates can do well,” he said. He doesn’t think it serves Iowa Republicans to bicker over which issues should take priority.

“We as Iowans have a duty and a privilege as well to properly vet (candidates), and that means on all issues,” he said.

Albrecht adds that the caucus campaigns are full of surprises.

“If people expect it to be a Camp Christian, then unpredictability inevitably rises up,” he said.

Caucus veterans: Don’t skip Iowa

Mike DuHaime managed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 campaign, which spent little time in Iowa. He said he expects a shift in conversation this cycle from the social-issues focus of 2008.

In 2007-08, the economy wasn’t a huge concern yet, and there were few differences among the GOP candidates on foreign policy.

“So what was left to talk about was social issues,” he said.

He said the 2012 campaign is more likely to hinge on domestic policy, and the potential candidates include former governors who have differences in their records.

He says he expects social issues to continue to be extremely important in Iowa. But he wouldn’t advise Romney to pull his punches here, at least for now.

“I think he’s a very serious candidate who’s right now the likely front-runner, at least nationally,” DuHaime said. “He didn’t win Iowa last time, so I think he probably benefits from the expectations being a bit lower than last time.”

The expectations game is still vital. The early focus on moral values could benefit Romney in Iowa by allowing him to compete here without the do-or-die stakes that some candidates face. If Romney continues to lead national polls, he’d be expected to do well in Iowa. But “doing well” doesn’t necessarily mean first place.

Dave Roederer chaired the Iowa campaigns for George W. Bush in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. He said that while McCain didn’t spend as much time or money in Iowa as in New Hampshire, “he still felt it was important that he at least come out and go through the process.”

Roederer notes that with no obvious favorite in the GOP field, candidates may leave Iowa “all bunched together.”

Bob Haus of Des Moines, who managed caucus campaigns for Fred Thompson, Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm but is unaffiliated with any 2012 campaign so far, disagrees that the only ticket to victory in Iowa is to mesh with the religious right.

“I think the party here is big enough and broad enough that there are a lot of candidates who will appeal to 15, 20, 30 percent of the overall electorate,” Haus said.

Iowa remains vital in fall election

Iowa politicos concede that Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status could be at risk in the future. If a candidate who skips the state entirely or has a bad experience in Iowa is eventually elected president, he or she could try to steer the national party to a different nomination process.

The value that the national media assign to the caucuses might then wax and wane over the years. So far, they are still following the candidates to Iowa.

There’s more jeopardy for candidates who try to avoid Iowa. They’ll miss the lessons in retail politics that only a process like the caucuses can provide. If the caucuses don’t kill a candidacy, they’ll make it stronger.

The Hawkeye State doesn’t reliably pick presidents or even nominees, but it does hold legitimate status as a swing state in the general election. A candidate who might well need Iowa to beat President Obama won’t want to alienate Republicans by snubbing their caucuses. Obama already understands that Iowa is important to his re-election campaign, and he’ll be here defending it.

There will always be self-appointed kingmakers who want to steer the debate toward their own interests. Their influence is greatest when only a few people are paying attention.

Iowans’ best defense against losing their privilege to vet future presidents is vigorous participation. Show up at candidate events. Ask smart questions. Make up your own mind about who’s qualified, pick a candidate and bring out your friends and neighbors to caucus. If Iowans want to stay in the game, we all have to play ball.

Political columnist Kathie Obradovich can be reached at (515) 284-8126 or kobradov@dmreg.com. You can follow her on Twitter at twitter.com/kobradovich. For more Obradovich columns, blogs and tweets, visit www.dmregister.com/Obradovich.

Who’s playing in Iowa?

MICHELE BACHMANN: The Minnesota congresswoman is reclaiming her Iowa roots – she grew up in Waterloo/Cedar Falls – and she’s said the Iowa Straw Poll will be a focal point for her campaign. She’s been here four days in 2011 and is scheduled to be back next week. She’s said she’ll decide by this summer whether to run, and media reports point to an exploratory committee launching in early June. Bachmann has revved up conservative crowds in Iowa, including tea party members and the uber-active home schoolers network.

HALEY BARBOUR: The Mississippi governor has spent four days in Iowa this year despite an ongoing legislative session back home. He’s said Iowa will be key to his strategy if he runs for president. He’s kept his message focused on the economy and cutting the budget, saying Republicans need to “keep the main thing the main thing.” But Iowa GOP leaders note his record on abortion restrictions while in office as evidence he can meet the bar on social issues.
Herman Cain: The Georgia businessman and radio personality has already opened an exploratory committee and spent a surprising 10 days in Iowa in 2011. His appearances at two multi-candidate forums have begun to create some buzz in Iowa. He’s an entertaining speaker with an engaging personal story. Once he has Iowans’ attention, though, he’ll have to follow up with some depth on issues.

NEWT GINGRICH: The former U.S. House speaker is the best-known candidate on the national level to pledge a significant effort in Iowa, if he runs. Gingrich has not yet opened a federal exploratory committee, but he has an online fundraising effort under way. He’s been in Iowa three days in 2011. Despite two divorces and a messy personal past, he wins over even religious Republicans with his effort to help oust Iowa Supreme Court justices who ruled in favor of same-sex marriage.

MIKE HUCKABEE: The defending champion, but it’s still unclear how hard he’ll defend his title. Huckabee leads many national polls and is still a favorite here in Iowa, but many top Republicans say they don’t think he’ll compete in the caucuses. Huckabee indicates that if he runs, he’ll start very late, maybe even next fall. Even more than Mitt Romney, Huckabee would find it difficult to manage expectations in Iowa if he runs here.

RON PAUL: The Texas congressman finished fifth in the 2008 caucuses and has spent two days in Iowa in 2011. It’s not at all clear that he will run again, but he retains a fan base in Iowa. Paul’s message on restricting the role of the federal government resonates with conservatives, but his libertarian lean also makes the GOP mainstream uncomfortable.

TIM PAWLENTY: He’s trying out for the home team. The former Minnesota governor opened an exploratory committee March 21. He’d spent five days this year in Iowa before a scheduled two-day trip this weekend, and has acknowledged that doing well in Iowa is vital to his campaign. Pawlenty’s main appeal is on fiscal issues but he’s trying hard – some say too hard – to find acceptance from religious conservatives.

RICK SANTORUM: The former Pennsylvania senator has spent six days in Iowa this year and has indicated his campaign lives or dies here. He has not yet opened an exploratory committee, but Fox News considered him a serious-enough candidate to suspend his contract with the network. He appeals most strongly to social conservatives, but has started introducing himself to other audiences as well.

OTHERS: A few lower-tier potential candidates have visited, but haven’t indicated they’d focus campaigns on Iowa, including former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. No days in Iowa yet this year: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Donald Trump.