Four New Papers: Anthropogenic Signal Not Detectable in Sea Level Rise

It is widely assumed that sea levels have been rising in recent decades largely in response to anthropogenic global warming. However, due to the inherently large contribution of natural oscillatory influences on sea level fluctuations, this assumption lacks substantiation. Instead, natural factors or internal variability override the detection of an anthropogenic signal and may instead largely explain the patterns in sea level rise in large regions of the global oceans.

Scientists who have recently attempted to detect an anthropogenic signal in regional sea level rise trends have had to admit that there is “no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming,” or that the “sea level rise pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal,” and that sea level “trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability.”

Below are highlighted summaries from 4 peer-reviewed scientific papers published within the last few months.

For the convenience of the readers, our basic results are shown in Figure 1. We identified five individual oscillations (upper panel), including a sea-level amplitude of 70 mm (top–bottom [t-b]) of the 18.6-year oscillation caused by the lunar nodal oscillation (LNO) … Together with a general sea-level rise of 1.18 mm/y, the sum of these five sea-level oscillations constitutes a reconstructed or theoretical sea-level curve of the eastern North Sea to the central Baltic Sea (Figure 1, lower panel), which correlates very well with the observed sea-level changes of the 160-year period (1849–2009), from which 26 long tide gauge time series are available from the eastern North Sea to the central Baltic Sea. Such identification of oscillators and general trends over 160 years would be of great importance for distinguishing long-term, natural developments from possible, more recent anthropogenic sea-level changes. However, we found that a possible candidate for such anthropogenic development, i.e. the large sea-level rise after 1970, is completely contained by the found small residuals, long-term oscillators, and general trend. Thus, we found that there is (yet) no observable sea-level effect of anthropogenic global warming in the world’s best recorded region.

Building up on the relationship between thermocline and sea level in the tropical region, we show that most of the observed sea level spatial trend pattern in the tropical Pacific can be explained by the wind driven vertical thermocline movement. By performing detection and attribution study on sea level spatial trend patterns in the tropical Pacific and attempting to eliminate signal corresponding to the main internal climate mode, we further show that the remaining residual sea level trend pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal. In addition, we also suggest that satellite altimetry measurement may not still be accurate enough to detect the anthropogenic signal in the 20-year tropical Pacific sea level trends.

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Charles Higley

There was a paper out recently that described the observation that sea waterpassing through a reef is actually decreased in pH by the metabolic products of the coral population. [I imagine this was describing night-time effects.] The reef itself acidifies, somewhat, the seawater.

Also, photosynthesis is an alkalizing process such that the pH in bays or estuaries can rise 1–2 pH units during the course of a sunny day and active photosynthesis. Clearly this does not hurt these organisms as they evolved doing this routine.

One aspect of the ocean acidification issue that is most often totally ignored is that marine organisms are not directly subject to the seawater pH as they are living and have physiological control of their internal pH. They can carry on in the face of pH changes.

It should be noted here that carbonic acid produced by dissolution of CO2 into seawater is a weak acid and is not capable of significantly affecting the complex buffer that comprises seawater. Also, as there is an extended equilibrium from CO2 to carbonic acid to bicarbonate to carbonate to calcium carbonate, the protons released by this equilibrium cannot affect themselves. Only an outside source of protons, such as from a bolus of hydrochloric acid, can shift the equilibrium (toward carbonic acid and CO2 release).

As the warm waters of the tropics are essentially saturated with calcium ions, this is a healthy equilibrium and the addition of more CO2 simply pushes the whole thing toward more calcium carbonate precipitation, completely irregardless of the protons released in this equilibrium. More CO2 more precipitation of calcium carbonate, and more concretion formation of the reefs. This is a win-win situation. The wonderfully tall cliffs of Dover were created during a time when CO2 was many times higher than now—very impressive.

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Amber

One of the most significant outcomes of the USA election is the public awakening to the utter contempt main street media holds them . Preachy condescending Liberals
pushing for the most part Democrat ideology while shutting out different values and political priorities . Telling the people what to think instead of listening . The Green Party garnering a whopping 1 % of the vote and was supposed to be the champion of what the President claims is the number one threat to the world . Global Warming rebranded Climate Change . Apparently people in the rust belt and over 30 other States disagreed with that as a priority .
The lazy media played along and sold scary climate stories they were spoon fed and in some cases refused to provide any balance to the BS they are spoon fed and have been spewing for years .
When their party lost they were so stunned all they could play was the race card and are still in denial holding out for hopeless recounts or conspiracy theories of Russian espionage and hacking .
The public has now been put back in control so if some clown weather women wants to pitch nonsense the public shifts to more objective information sources. Ones that aren’t the propaganda or fake news tool for a political party .
Universities that are now full on incubators for a one sided left wing agenda are really ripping those kids off but worst of all those like Colorado University have faculty openly saying they will not discuss opposing climate views . Education to Propaganda is a fine line . Colorado crossed it . The LA times crossed it . The Guardian , New York Times …. well what do you expect ?
Peoples actions demonstrated the jig is up . Short those media stocks they are going down .

Amber

If left wing pinko Saunders doesn’t like him he sounds like he has potential .
He looks like a guy with a bit of backbone and won’t be bullied by the Demo rat
whiners who have infiltrated the EPA .
Good luck Mr. Pruitt . …. hire security . When the looney tunes get desperate( and they are ) they go into ugly mode . Taking apart their $Trillion dollar con game is going to get them down right belligerent but who cares ? They did get about 1 % of the vote
after all . In other words the science fiction is settled in the minds of voters by about
99 % . The debate is over in their hot air world .
Drain away Mr. Pruitt the public backs you despite the shrill sound of whiners who just had their piggy bank broken .

Amber

The NASA data manipulators collectively don’t have an IQ over 38 . Bullshit merchants about to be out on their ass . Maybe Britain would like to hire NASA rejects .
Where oh where are Dicaprio and Gore going to get their alarmist propaganda ?
When is the much vaunted IPCC report coming out ? That’s right NEVER .
The jig is up they were played as useful idiots and are no longer required .
Did the IPCC hot pants smut writer ever beat those sexual harassment allegations ? Quality right through the organization .

Amber

Why would virtually no change to Antarctic ice in over 100 years be a surprise at all .
Whether it’s minus – 60 or minus – 58 certainly we know it is fricking cold and it is not about to thaw . Throw a few volcanos open below the surface and a part of it might
but if that is considered caused by climate change the science fiction is bigger than
we know .
The question is how much will the Antarctic grow by over the next 1000 years ?

Amirlach

JayPee

I’m willing to consider your argument, but I’m disturbed of your willing to give credence to the unproven and unfoundedly assumed presumption that CO2, CH4, and any other gasses that the extremist left hates are upon their dictum alone the mythical GREENHOUSE GASSES as they define them to be.

I ask you not to buy into their argument without the proof that they have never had.
They have always had conjecture, lies and hysteria and even a low percentage of consensus ( as if that means anything ).
But they have NEVER had proof of their mythical GREENHOUSE EFFECT ( as defined by the extremist left ).