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Friday, May 03, 2013

How I forecast the rise of UKIP in 2009

Anyone who wrote a piece in 2010 forecasting the rise of UKIP should probably tweet it now.
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) May 2, 2013

So the editor of the New Statesman's Staggers blog tweeted this morning.

After noting that leading Conservative bloggers were queueing to express their support for Nigel Farage, who had just announced he was standing against John Bercow in Buckingham, I wrote:

All of which reminds us what a hard job David Cameron continues to have in keeping his party in the political mainstream. The headbangers and beggar-kickers are constantly threatening to escape from the wicker hamper into which he has crammed them. He is sitting on it heavily, but they are not going to stop pushing.

If Cameron does win the next election it is easy to imagine defections to UKIP - at least in the blogosphere - once he begins to make the compromises that become inevitable in power.

UKIP could also emerge as a threat to the Tories in Westminster by-elections.