If, going into the fourth Test, England had the confidence lent them from their levelling win in the third Test, then how they feel after the events that unfolded at Old Trafford can only be imagined. Certainly no one could have foreseen the manner in which India’s batting capitulated in the final session of the third day, every bit as ignominiously as had England’s at Lord’s. Perhaps even more so, given the weather prospects at the time.

Forecasting in this country, even in the age of mega-computers, remains an inexact science but there was certainty that the penultimate scheduled day would be unplayable and a good chance, as it later proved, that the final day might be a washout as well. Just another hour’s batting, a bit more graft, and the series would still be up for grabs going into the final match.

As it is, England have the security of knowing that they cannot lose the series, and the impetus to increase the final margin to three matches to one. For India, the talk will be of playing for pride, which does the young players in the side a disservice: any cricketer who does not, first and foremost, feel an overwhelming sense of pride in representing their country should not be anywhere near the team. As with England, the India team are evolving and learning, and will be the better for the experience of this tour even if at times it has been a harsh lesson. They have been outplayed.

Should England prevail, or draw the final Test, it will be the 10th time that they have overcome an early defeat and emerged from behind to win a five-Test series, the most recent of those being the famous Ashes series of 2005. This in itself tells much of the narrative that can emerge from a proper series of that length and how perceptions can change. A two-match series, as against Sri Lanka, and India win; three Tests and it is honours shared, a moral victory for India away from home. As it is, India could come out of the series having been soundly beaten by a considerable margin.

The last two Tests have been played on excellent pitches. That at Old Trafford was the best we have seen in this country for some while, the difficulties inherent in it for batsmen exaggerated enormously by the atmospheric conditions which allowed the ball to move in the air extravagantly, and to excess at times so that it was not easy to harness.

It will not be easy for the Kia Oval to live up to these standards, particularly as the weather has been more changeable during the past week, so that the groundsman will have had a little more trouble controlling the moisture levels. Early indications (and bearing in mind that things can change during the 24 hours before a match) are that the surface will not be as hard as those at Southampton or Old Trafford, and that it is reasonably well-grassed. This is a recipe for a slowish, niggly seamer, certainly at first, and as such will provide Alastair Cook or MS Dhoni with another decision that is less than straightforward.

Should the opposition be put in to try to take advantage of movement before the pitch dries right out, but in the knowledge that it might dent as well, which could make batting last, against uneven bounce, a tricky prospect? Or do you bat first, knowing the early stages will be a challenge but believing that the surface may not hold up for five days, and could take considerable turn in the later stages as well as erratic bounce? Given that both captains saw Old Trafford as offering conditions in which it was wisest to bat first (irrespective of the eventual outcome as we now know it) then the chances are that both will want to bat first this time.

After winning the past two Tests, and having taken an unchanged team into the fourth match, it would be surprising if England were to field a different team this time. Had there been a chance that The Oval would offer pace and bounce as did Old Trafford, then there might have been a case for including Steven Finn at the expense of either Chris Woakes or Chris Jordan. A sluggish pitch, though, is not really the time to bring Finn back. They will be wanting a little more than industry and the ubiquitous “doing a job” from Woakes soon, though. He has played three Tests now and has taken two for 259 in that time, figures not a million miles distant from those of Pankaj Singh – two for 292 from two Tests. He is pretty much certain to lose his place to Ishant Sharma should he be fit to play, the only change India are likely to make.

England have a single concern and that is Stuart Broad, sporting a couple of shiners now and a swollen beak. A broken nose is no reason not to play unless the side-effects – possible impaired vision, for example – prove a handicap. But after having a day away from practice on Wednesday, he bowled well enough in the nets on the eve of the Test and also batted. He has decided to jettison the streamlined helmet that failed to protect him from the top-edged pull that forced its way between the underside of the helmet and the grille to lodge there like a ball in a lottery draw. This match is likely to be the last outing he has before knee surgery.