There was some speculation that JB would write a piece about this, but he hasn't yet. So I just want to throw it out there:

Is this summer's box office actually worrying Hollywood, or is it no big deal? In the past, Transformers films were usually upstaged by something (mostly Harry Potter). In those years, Transformers was never the biggest opening of its summer or even close. This year, it is the biggest, and will be still after the summer is over. It won't be the highest domestic grosser of the year, but this is 2014, the era when execs think opening weekend is 95% of the battle (actually it is indeed 95% of the battle, because that's just how dividends work now). Suffice to say, studios don't want sleepers, just big openings. Every film this summer has opened solidly, then dropped like a rock. And critics' seem to be making less of a difference than usual. 95% films follow the same pattern as 17%.

But Transformers really shouldn't have been the biggest opener this year, with sequels to Spider-Man and X-Men getting so much hype. The fact that Godzilla, a franchise that has only ever had one American film made in its name (that everyone hated), and 28 Japanese B-movies, most of which were never released theatrically in the US, opened about as big as Captain America, Spidey, and X-Men, tells a story. The Godzilla trailers really whetted peoples' appetites for a new direction in summer blockbusters, or at least for a new trend to start again. But the movie didn't deliver, and , even I have to admit I'm pretty disappointed in that movie at the end of the day.

Now this weekend, Apes will open to less than any of the above tentpoles did this year, and it'll seriously struggle to match Rise's total gross. The loss of James Franco makes a difference, no matter how much of an improvement people are claiming it to be. It won't be the big cultural hit of the summer. I don't really see Guardians being a huge deal either, the hype is dying down for it.

Two months from now, there will probably be numerous articles about how this is the worst summer since...whenever. Not sure how much of a difference it'll make in the long run, but producers are likely starting to question what the "next big thing" is going to be. Could be Interstellar if that turns out to have Oscar-legs. But Hunger Games obviously will open bigger than anything did this summer.

Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:04 pm

KWRoss

Director

Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:37 amPosts: 1180Location: Laurel, MD

Re: Box Office 2014

JB still has plans on writing something about the One and Done trend, but won't get to it until around 7/29.

For now, I'll just say that Transformers was lucky enough to have a week before it with THINK LIKE A MAN TOO, not to mention a week after it with TAMMY. That's far, FAR less compeition from competing blockbusters than most of the others faced.

JB still has plans on writing something about the One and Done trend, but won't get to it until around 7/29.

For now, I'll just say that Transformers was lucky enough to have a week before it with THINK LIKE A MAN TOO, not to mention a week after it with TAMMY. That's far, FAR less compeition from competing blockbusters than most of the others faced.

It's not luck, really. Release dates are chosen carefully. In the week after with Tammy, it still didn't make any more than Godzilla or Xmen did in their second weeks. The dropoff was just as bad. What competition did Captain America have? Spider-Man had two weeks to play around before Godzilla came out. Godzilla only had one week before Xmen, but it was at a disadvantage anyway. When could Godzilla ever stand up to Spidey and Xmen for an American audience, both of which were direct sequels? But it did, nonetheless.

It's definitely clear that the system of releasing two big blockbusters two weeks in a row probably isn't a good idea. But just think, this summer was originally going to release Fast Furious 7 right about now. The crowded-ness could have been even more overwhelming. But it's not just about that. Transformers retains popularity. And even though other blockbusters had the advantage of returning cast members, Transformers did not, but still came out ahead anyway. It also responded to the growing globalization of the film market, which make no mistake, is the reality of the future, good or bad. However good or bad a movie Transformers may be, it's certainly a film emblematic of 2014.

Dawn of the Apes has a solid two-week window, or perhaps more, to flex its muscles. We'll see if it proves me wrong.

Sat Jul 12, 2014 1:50 am

Vexer

Auteur

Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:02 pmPosts: 3606Location: Zion, IL

Re: Box Office 2014

I personally didn't hate the 1998 Godzilla film, it was first exposure to him so I actually liked it.

The new Godzilla actually surpassed it's opening weekend estimates, it was planned to take in 80 million and it ended up taking in 93 million, so that was actually pretty impressive.

Guardians I can see doing OK but not amazing.

Sat Jul 12, 2014 3:28 am

MGamesCook

Director

Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:44 pmPosts: 1807

Re: Box Office 2014

Quote:

The new Godzilla actually surpassed it's opening weekend estimates, it was planned to take in 80 million and it ended up taking in 93 million, so that was actually pretty impressive.

Yeah, the hype for it was insane. I can't remember if Zilla 98 was my first exposure to the franchise. I remember watching several of them as a little kid, like Son of Godzilla, King Kong v Godzilla, Smog Monster. The 28-film Toho series (which was comprised of three cycles) definitely has some hidden popcorn treasures to offer.

Sat Jul 12, 2014 3:49 am

Ragnarok73

Cinematographer

Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:40 pmPosts: 514

Re: Box Office 2014

I'd love to think that the lower box office totals mean that the public have finally had enough of dreck. I know it doesn't, though.

_________________"Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in the rain."

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:10 am

Vexer

Auteur

Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:02 pmPosts: 3606Location: Zion, IL

Re: Box Office 2014

Ragnarok73 wrote:

I'd love to think that the lower box office totals mean that the public have finally had enough of dreck. I know it doesn't, though.

Well one man's dreck is another man's pleasure, and that's especially true for superhero films.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:59 am

MGamesCook

Director

Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:44 pmPosts: 1807

Re: Box Office 2014

Vexer wrote:

Ragnarok73 wrote:

I'd love to think that the lower box office totals mean that the public have finally had enough of dreck. I know it doesn't, though.

Well one man's dreck is another man's pleasure, and that's especially true for superhero films.

Well I think it does mean they may be getting tired of certain franchises and ready to move on to something else. Maybe also tired of trusting the critics on everything.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:06 am

nitrium

Director

Joined: Sat Oct 13, 2012 2:42 pmPosts: 1282Location: New Zealand

Re: Box Office 2014

MGamesCook wrote:

Vexer wrote:

Ragnarok73 wrote:

I'd love to think that the lower box office totals mean that the public have finally had enough of dreck. I know it doesn't, though.

Well one man's dreck is another man's pleasure, and that's especially true for superhero films.

Well I think it does mean they may be getting tired of certain franchises and ready to move on to something else. Maybe also tired of trusting the critics on everything.

Not convinced moviegoers ever really trusted critics on anything. I mean the Transformers films are hardly critic darlings, are they? I think simple media hype is still the biggest draw for film goers.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:07 am

ilovemovies

Producer

Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:04 amPosts: 2258

Re: Box Office 2014

Meh. I don't care about box office. I actually think it's been an excellent summer season for movies. Godzilla, Neighbors, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, X-Men: Days of Future Past, 22 Jump Street, Chef all range from good to great. Nothing has been truly terrible. Transformers was mediocre to me, not awful. Of course I haven't seen Tammy yet and that looks bad.

This has probably been the best summer season in a while. And I haven't seen some promising titles yet like Life Itself, Snowpiercer, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Begin Again and in the upcoming weeks we have promising looking movies coming like Boyhood, A Most Wanted Man, Lucy and I Origins.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:19 am

JamesKunz

Critic

Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:35 amPosts: 6252Location: Easton, MD

Re: Box Office 2014

ilovemovies wrote:

Meh. I don't care about box office. I actually think it's been an excellent summer season for movies. Godzilla, Neighbors, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, X-Men: Days of Future Past, 22 Jump Street, Chef all range from good to great. Nothing has been truly terrible. Transformers was mediocre to me, not awful. Of course I haven't seen Tammy yet and that looks bad.

This has probably been the best summer season in a while. And I haven't seen some promising titles yet like Life Itself, Snowpiercer, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Begin Again and in the upcoming weeks we have promising looking movies coming like Boyhood, A Most Wanted Man, Lucy and I Origins.

You should care about box office -- you have to care about box office -- because the studios certainly do and they make the film.

Glad you made a thread about this, MGames, because I noted just the other day that no movies had earned 300 million yet and I'm not sure any are likely to this year with the exception of Mockingjay.1, which is guaranteed to (and that's a good thing since the last one was so good). Will it make the studios less likely to rely on "tentpole" films? No, not at all: they'll just look forward to The Avengers 2 next year. But their business model is fucked, and they should realize it.

_________________I'm lithe and fierce as a tiger

Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:35 am

ilovemovies

Producer

Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:04 amPosts: 2258

Re: Box Office 2014

I mean, would I like the movies that I like to do well? Of course. But it's out of my control. So why worry about it? It doesn't really ultimately matter. Besides, some of my favorite movies were box office flops. In another thread we were talking about Almost Famous, a major favorite of mine and that movie did not do well at the box office.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:41 am

KWRoss

Director

Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:37 amPosts: 1180Location: Laurel, MD

Re: Box Office 2014

I think it all really goes back to some of the material from the thread I made a while back. I probably exaggerated by saying that movies are "on their way out," but they don't have the utter cultural dominance they once did. You gotta admit that while TV has admirably upped its game and expanded its horizons (where HBO and Netflix are all the rage), the movie business model is stuck in the pre-Internet era. We still do movies the same way we have for decades; buy a ticket, maybe buy overpriced concession food, and our viewing experience is largely at the mercy of the theater's level of customer service (not to mention the level of audience behavior).

I started thinking about this even more after I watched LIFE ITSELF via On Demand, and you know something? I prefer having that $8 added to my cable bill rather than taking time to drive to a theater. I wonder how many others would do the same if most movies went that route.

I think it all really goes back to some of the material from the thread I made a while back. I probably exaggerated by saying that movies are "on their way out," but they don't have the utter cultural dominance they once did. You gotta admit that while TV has admirably upped its game and expanded its horizons (where HBO and Netflix are all the rage), the movie business model is stuck in the pre-Internet era. We still do movies the same way we have for decades; buy a ticket, maybe buy overpriced concession food, and our viewing experience is largely at the mercy of the theater's level of customer service (not to mention the level of audience behavior).

I started thinking about this even more after I watched LIFE ITSELF via On Demand, and you know something? I prefer having that $8 added to my cable bill rather than taking time to drive to a theater. I wonder how many others would do the same if most movies went that route.

In the past two weeks, I've watched both Life Itself and Snowpiercer through iTunes, but only because I live in the middle of nowhere and neither of them are going to come close to me. If given the option, I would watch most movies on the big screen, but VOD could get very big very soon.

I think it all really goes back to some of the material from the thread I made a while back. I probably exaggerated by saying that movies are "on their way out," but they don't have the utter cultural dominance they once did. You gotta admit that while TV has admirably upped its game and expanded its horizons (where HBO and Netflix are all the rage), the movie business model is stuck in the pre-Internet era. We still do movies the same way we have for decades; buy a ticket, maybe buy overpriced concession food, and our viewing experience is largely at the mercy of the theater's level of customer service (not to mention the level of audience behavior).

I started thinking about this even more after I watched LIFE ITSELF via On Demand, and you know something? I prefer having that $8 added to my cable bill rather than taking time to drive to a theater. I wonder how many others would do the same if most movies went that route.

In the past two weeks, I've watched both Life Itself and Snowpiercer through iTunes, but only because I live in the middle of nowhere and neither of them are going to come close to me. If given the option, I would watch most movies on the big screen, but VOD could get very big very soon.

I think both KWRoss and Steven have a point on this. People assume that the distribution model for movies will continue to follow current practices i.e. release to blockbuster theatres, then sales of DVDs, then release through NetFlix or some other streaming service (in the past through rentals of DVDs/VHS tapes). But with home theatre systems the way they are now and the popularity of On Demand in addition with NetFlix expanding their reach even further, there may well come a time when the movie theatre may become obsolete -- not movies themselves, but movie theatres for all but certain tentpole movies, with all other releases distributed by On Demand (many foreign and independent films are already being released directly by On Demand, bypassing theatres altogether).

This will likely result in the closing of many existing movie theatres (including many of the existing blockbuster chains in the US and Canada).

Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:22 pm

Vexer

Auteur

Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:02 pmPosts: 3606Location: Zion, IL

Re: Box Office 2014

I don't their business model is "fucked" at all just cause no film has made 300 million domestic yet, 200 million is still pretty impressive, more then enough for execs to justify greenlighting more movies based on licensed properties.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:17 pm

MGamesCook

Director

Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:44 pmPosts: 1807

Re: Box Office 2014

Vexer wrote:

I don't their business model is "fucked" at all just cause no film has made 300 million domestic yet, 200 million is still pretty impressive, more then enough for execs to justify greenlighting more movies based on licensed properties.

It's not that simple. Many of these studio execs consider 200 mil a disappointment. And including marketing, most these budgets go way beyond 200 mil. And execs are starting to have unrealistic expectations for their movies. They all want to make a billion.

Earth to Echo was supposed to be a Disney movie, but Disney sold it to Relativity. No matter what the material is, Disney will not be making anything but mega blockbusters in the future. That's the new business model.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:10 pm

JamesKunz

Critic

Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:35 amPosts: 6252Location: Easton, MD

Re: Box Office 2014

Vexer wrote:

I don't their business model is "fucked" at all just cause no film has made 300 million domestic yet, 200 million is still pretty impressive, more then enough for execs to justify greenlighting more movies based on licensed properties.

MGames got into this a bit, but 200 million domestically isn't "pretty impressive" at all if the budget (before advertising) is north of that total. Particularly since it's not like studios take in all the gross. Theater chains get their money too.

_________________I'm lithe and fierce as a tiger

Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:18 pm

Sexual Chocolate

Director

Joined: Sun Jun 20, 2010 4:04 pmPosts: 1754Location: New Hampshire

Re: Box Office 2014

Vexer wrote:

I don't their business model is "fucked" at all just cause no film has made 300 million domestic yet, 200 million is still pretty impressive, more then enough for execs to justify greenlighting more movies based on licensed properties.

200 mil is actually really bad for a film wth that size budget. Remember the rule of 2.5: Your average $200 million film needs to make $500 million just to break even.

_________________Death is pretty finalI'm collecting vinylI'm gonna DJ at the end of the world.

Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:58 pm

JamesKunz

Critic

Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:35 amPosts: 6252Location: Easton, MD

Re: Box Office 2014

Sexual Chocolate wrote:

Vexer wrote:

I don't their business model is "fucked" at all just cause no film has made 300 million domestic yet, 200 million is still pretty impressive, more then enough for execs to justify greenlighting more movies based on licensed properties.

200 mil is actually really bad for a film wth that size budget. Remember the rule of 2.5: Your average $200 million film needs to make $500 million just to break even.

Though that rule, I believe, pre-dates massive international grosses, the DVD market, etc.

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