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Saturday, 6 January 2018

New Similar Field Strength page (for the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions)

New Similar Field Strength tab on the Prediction
Data page (for Dustin Johnson for the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions)

Performance table (Other tab) with new Similar Field Strength column (also for Dustin Johnson at the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions)

In addition to the existing GP season, recent, course, tournament,
similar tournament, similar weather, similar length course, time of season and same region form on Golf Predictor, I am pleased to announce that similar field strength analysis has also been added to the system. This new functionality adds analysis of golfer performance in tournaments with similar strength fields (as determined by the Golf Predictor field strength metric) for each tournament.

A
new 'Similar Field Strength' option has been added to the Form menu and the
functionality is available for tournaments from week one, 2018 (the week
of the Sentry Tournament of Champions). The Prediction Data page has also been updated with a new FS (Field Strength) tab to show this information for each golfer. This analysis is based on the
matching
results for each golfer in the previous five/six seasons (see point 1
of the notes below) and should be very helpful for
your fantasy golf, DFS golf or betting needs. It will allow you to identify golfers who perform better in weak, medium and strong fields, which should be very beneficial for certain tournaments throughout the year.
The stats produced are similar to the other form stats available on
Golf Predictor:

Average finishing position and standard deviation (consistency).

Best and worst finishing positions.

Number of tournaments played, wins, top tens, missed cuts and withdrawals/disqualifications.

Scoring average and stroke average.

The Field Rank for the golfer in this new metric. The 'Average Field
Rank' stat and charts have also been updated to include this new form
metric.

The first
screenshot above shows the new 'Similar Field Strength' form page and most of the
stats listed above for the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions field. This page is
very similar to the existing form pages, and like those pages, is
sorted by GP Rank and has fully sortable columns. Hovering over the
golfer's first name will show his world ranking, as shown above for Hideki Matsuyama. The second screenshot above shows the new FS tab on the updated Prediction
page for Dustin Johnson for the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions. The third screenshot above
shows the new Hist (FS) column in
the Performance panel. Some notes on this new functionality:

The time scale analysed to produce these statistics is the previous
five seasons, plus any results from the current season. This means that
at the start of a new GP season (year), the stats will encompass the
tournaments from previous five years, while at the end of that GP
season, they will encompass six years.

Field size is taken into account when calculating the field strength for a tournament. Therefore, it is also taken into account when grouping tournaments by field strength. This is to prevent smaller fielded events with better quality fields being grouped with events with larger, but weaker fields.

The above mentioned allowance for field size has been done to maximise the effectiveness of the groupings.

Field strengths analysed are those within plus and minus four of the tournament being analysed.

The predictions/field stats are usually produced on Mondays. However, adding tee-off groups affects the field strength of a tournament if the field changes (and it usually does!). Therefore, the field similar field strength data is recalculated after the tee-off groups are added and the field has changed. Tee-off groups are usually added on Tuesdays, so you may have to reload a page from your browser cache (by pressing F5 on
Windows) to see the very latest similar field strength data.

If the field size is greater than 140, the event is considered a full field event and field size is not taken into account when analysing tournaments with similar strength fields. This may have to be taken into account for the odd tournament with a huge fields, e.g. the Joburg Open.

If the field size is less than 140, only field sizes within plus and minus fifteen are analysed. This was found to give the best results.

Some tournaments may not have any other events (other than previous versions of the same event) with similar field strengths/field sizes. In these cases, the data produced may be similar to the course/tournament history for the golfer for that event (it will depend on whether the field strengths in previous seasons were similar enough). This week's tournament, the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions is one such event.

I have also updated the Field Rank, Field Rank (Summary) and Field
Rank (Form) pages with this new Similar Field Strength metric. All charts on these
pages have have updated also.

You may have to refresh a page to see the new Form menu option or the new stats/charts on Prediction pages.

You may have to reload the site style sheets (by pressing Ctrl+F5 on
Windows) to see the prediction page tabs on a single line on smaller devices. This is
because a new tab (FS) was added and this impacts the display on smaller
sized screens.

These new stats also come with twelve new charts. In each case,
the tournaments analysed are those that are in the period outlined in
the first point above. The following charts have been added to the
system:

Top performers in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Most consistent performers in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Least consistent performers in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Players with the most number of wins in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Players with the biggest winning percentage in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Players with the most number of top tens in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Players with the biggest top ten finishes percentage in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Players with the least number of cuts missed in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Players with the smallest cuts missed percentage in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Performance breakdown (wins/top tens/missed cuts/finishes/non-finishes) for a golfer in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years.

Results in events with similar field strength in the previous 5 years for the selected golfer (line chart).

The Similar Field Strength stats panel has a new box plot, as shown above.

These twelve new charts brings the total number of charts on the site to 499. This new functionality should greatly assist in picking golfers, depending on the strength of the tournament field. As you can probably tell from the lengthof this post, a lot of work has gone into this new analysis and I hope you will find it useful. As usual, any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. The new similar field strength functionality is
available to all users, although only for the golfers you are
permitted to view (all golfers for subscribers, those ranked 11-25 for
non-subscribers). In addition, non-subscribers will not be able to view all of the new charts listed above. Therefore, sign up today to get the most out of Golf Predictor, the premier European and US PGA Tour statistics site.

2 comments:

I have fixed an issue for tournaments with fields of over 140 (this week's events). Last week's event, the Sentry Tournament of Champions (the first event with these new stats), was not affected as it had a small field. The bug for tournaments with fields over 140 resulted in incorrect tournament matches.

I have also added Sim. Field Strength to the Similar History spider chart available beside the player's prediction rank on the Prediction Data page. This corrects an oversight!