Earth Day 2013

Wisconsin’s climate is changing before our eyes

Milwaukeeans
have been shivering and wet this past week, so it’s easy to believe that our
soggy, cold April means that global warming or climate change isn’t a serious
threat.

But
unfortunatelyit is.

This
past week’s heavy rains aren’t necessarily caused by global warming, but they
do fit the long-term climate trends Wisconsin is experiencing.

“Weather
is always going to be variable,” said Matt Howard, director of the city’s Office
of Environmental Sustainability. “But when you’ve got an intense storm or an
intense rain or an intense drought that certainly fits the pattern of the
long-term trend. We’re seeing the evidence play out in the past four or five
years in a number of very intense storms.”

And
despite our current cool temperatures, Wisconsin is actually going through a
long-term warming trend. In 2012, Wisconsin broke more high-temperature records
than any other state in the country, according to data from the National Climatic
Data Center, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA). The new high-temperature records were hotter by an average of a
whopping 4.4 degrees.

The
scientists are telling us that we need to get used to more extreme rainstorms and more broken records because
Wisconsin’s climate is changing—and the changes will become more intense in our
lifetimes, with potentially deadly results if we don’t act now.

The
first step is to stop producing such a high volume of heat-trapping greenhouse
gasses through our consumption of fossil fuels, said Carolyn Betz, program
manager for the Madison-based Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts.
That won’t prevent the long-term changes that are already underway, but it can
mitigate climate change’s negative impacts on our health and environment.

“Unfortunately,
climate change is one of those things that is long term,” Betz said.

Less
Snow and More Extreme Heat by 2050

Researchers
at the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI), a project of the
state Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and UW-Madison’s Nelson Institute
for Environmental Studies, have been studying the state’s changing climate and
the impact of those changes on state residents, our natural resources and our
“built environment.”

Looking
backwards, the WICCI researchers documented that Wisconsin has gotten wetter
and warmer since 1950. Winter and summer temperatures are now higher,
especially at night, while autumns have stayed the same or cooled in some regions
of the state.

Wisconsin
is wetter, too. Average annual precipitation has increased about 15% between
1950 and 2006, the WICCI researchers found, although some regions have
experienced drought while other parts of the state have experienced heavy flooding
resulting from more frequent intense rainstorms.

Those
long-term trends will continue but be accelerated, WICCI experts predicted in
their comprehensive report on Wisconsin’s climate, and we’ll see those changes
in our lifetime.

By
the middle of the century, Wisconsin’s annual temperatures will increase by 6
to 7 degrees overall. In less than two decades, Wisconsin’s summers will look
like today’s summers in Illinois. By the end of the century, Wisconsin’s
winters will be like Iowa’s today and our summers will feel like those in
current-day Arkansas.

We’ll
see the biggest changes during wintertime. By 2050, Wisconsin winters will be 4
to 9 degrees warmer, four weeks shorter and have fewer sub-zero nights.
Snowfall will decrease by 14 inches per year. WICCI’s report states that the
expected rate of wintertime warming is about four times greater than what
Wisconsin has experienced since 1950. Northern Wisconsinites will see the most
intense changes and threats to their natural resources and lifestyle.

“That’s
going to be one of our most significant impacts, the loss of the winter
recreation season,” Betz said.

Temperature
change in summertime won’t be as significant by mid-century, but very hot days
will increase, especially in the southern part of the state. Currently,
southern Wisconsin has about 12 days per year during which high temperatures
exceed 90 degrees. But by 2050, we’ll have about 25 of those very hot days per
year—more than three weeks of sweltering heat per year.

Wisconsin
will be wetter, too, at least in the southern part of the state. While we’ll
have less snow, we’ll get more rain during spring, autumn and winter. Heavy
springtime rainstorms will become more frequent and intense, and flooding or
sewer overflows may result.

High
Heat Can Be Deadly

The
prospect of milder winters and less snow may seem attractive to some,
especially while spring seems too reluctant to emerge this year. But the consequences
of long-term climate change are huge, according to WICCI’s findings.

UW-Madison
researcher Richard Keller discovered that heat waves are the deadliest type of
weather—deadlier than flash floods, hurricanes or tornadoes, in fact. High
daytime heat with little relief at night is especially hard on the state’s most
vulnerable residents, including low-income and elderly Milwaukeeans who may not
live in air-conditioned housing.

Increased
usage of air conditioning will also place stress on our electrical grid, which
is overwhelmingly powered by coal-burning power plants. Although that will
alleviate the heat, the uptick in electricity usage could lead to more
ground-level ozone, potentially worsening respiratory illnesses like asthma.
Again, the problem is acute in Milwaukee, which has one of the highest rates of
childhood asthma in the country.

Wisconsin’s
natural environment will be affected as well. Native plants may no longer grow in their current locales and wild animals will likely migrate north. Some birds, such
as Canada geese, might stay in Wisconsin instead of migrating south for the
winter. The higher temperatures will cause more algae blooms in lakes and
disrupt the natural habitat of fish and other aquatic life.

Wisconsin’s
agriculture industry will also be affected in several ways, Betz said. The
growing season will be longer, but as we saw with last year’s apple crop, an
extended growing season doesn’t guarantee a bumper crop if the timing of rain
and heat aren’t in sync. The soil will likely be drier and at more risk of
flooding; farmers will have to adapt, possibly by introducing plants that had
never thrived in Wisconsin. Crops that rely on water—cranberries, for
example—may be harmed and cows’ stress during hot weather will put them at risk
and lead to diminished milk production and a struggling dairy industry.

We’ll
also have to address our built infrastructure. Milwaukee has had its share of
historic rainstorms in just the past few years, resulting in damaged homes,
sewer overflows and health scares. WICCI’s Milwaukee Working Group recommended
more “green infrastructure” to reduce stormwater overflows, reduce the city’s
heat island effect and increase the longevity of roadways, sewers and
buildings.

You Can Prevent Flooding

The
Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) and the city of Milwaukee have
intensified their efforts to reduce flooding and sewage overflows by adding
more green infrastructure to our area’s “built environment.” But they can’t do
it alone.

“It’s
really going to take everyone working together and changing the way that we
think about using the land,” said Karen Sands, manager of sustainability for
MMSD. “Instead of sending stormwater off our land and treating it as a
nuisance, green infrastructure encourages us to hold it where it falls and
treat it as a resource.”

MMSD’s
latest wastewater permit requires the agency to create at least 1 million
gallons of water-retaining green storage capacity for each of the five years of
its permit—the first permit of its kind nationally. That green infrastructure
could include purchasing green space, upgrading sewer pipes, planting roof
gardens and encouraging the use of rain barrels.

The
city is also incorporating green infrastructure to local roadways as part of
its Green Streets program. The city was awarded a $60,000 Coastal Management
grant to enable it to incorporate green elements into its street
reconstruction. Raised median beds with rain gardens, tree trenches, and
parking lanes with porous pavement are used to reduce stormwater runoff and
reduce pollution, said Erick Shambarger, deputy director of the city’s Office
of Environmental Sustainability. The city has used green design elements in its
upgrades of West Grange Avenue between 19th Street and 27th Street, North 27th
Street between West Capitol Drive and West Roosevelt Drive, and elsewhere.

But
individuals can help to reduce the risk of flooding and polluted runoff, too,
just by making a few small changes to their homes, yards or habits:

Install a rain
barrel

Plant a rain
garden where water is discharged during storms

Direct downspouts into a rain barrel, the yard or the
garden instead of into the sewer system

Use porous pavers
to reduce hard surfaces on your property

Don’t run the
dishwasher or washing machine during rainstorms

Reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides
and don’t spray them before it rains

Slope ground away
from the house so water can run off into the yard

Clear sewer
grates of debris

Don’t blow leaves
or grass into the street

Pick up pet waste

Will
Solar and Wind Power Knock Out Utilities?

It
may seem far-fetched right now, but renewable energy options have the power to
knock out traditional fossil fuel-based utilities’ monopolies.

That
“dire prediction” was made in January by the trade group Edison Electric
Institute as it looked at the long-term impacts of increased use of renewables,
including solar and small wind turbines owned by individuals and businesses, as
well as efficiency measures. The institute found that the traditional coal-based
utilities’ business model will be threatened as the cost of going solar or
using renewables decreases and more customers opt out of the big utilities’
grid. That will cause the utilities to raise their rates on their dwindling
customer base, causing even more users to cut ties and generate their own
power. At the same time, investors will see solar, wind and other renewable
options—including green energy-powered batteries—become better bets, leaving
utilities without a steady supply of easy capital when they need to make
long-term upgrades to their systems. The report likened the renewables’ threat
to the utilities to FedEx’s weakening of the U.S. Postal Service’s market
dominance. The utilities’ failure to adapt will be their own demise, the
institute warned.

“It
is a rare thing to hear an industry tell the tale of its own incipient
obsolescence,” wrote David Roberts in his analysis of the report at grist.org.

The
threat is already being seen in Germany, where 22% of electricity production
comes from renewables—and the vast amount of that energy is not coming from the
four largest utility companies, according to a March Reuters report, but from
consumers, farmers and niche companies. Individuals own 40% of the renewables
capacity, while the utilities own only 7%. That consumer independence is making
a dent in the customer base of the traditional utilities. In Bavaria, for
example, 8.5% of the electricity consumers are actually electricity producers
through their own solar energy systems.

We
Energies spokesman Brian Manthey told the Shepherd
he doesn't see solar as a threat in our area. But Charlie Higley, executive
director at Citizens Utility Board of Wisconsin, said that utilities cannot
take their monopolies for granted, especially in sunny areas of the country
where consumers can easily go solar. While Higley applauded the development of
clean energy sources, he also warned about the long-term consequences for
utilities and customers who will continue to rely on the fossil fuel-powered
grid.

“As
a consumer group, we appreciate the development of solar electric [power],”
Higley said. “We see that as potentially being really good for consumers. But
the threat is that this will undermine the investments made by our utilities
and that our rates will increase to cover the investments in plants that may
not be needed in the future.”

Coal-based
utilities may not be worried about their customers pulling the plug just yet.
But they should be concerned as more consumers see the financial and
environmental benefits of independently generating their own clean power.