1981 Climate Change Predictions Were Eerily Accurate

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A paper published in the journal Science in August 1981 made several projections regarding future climate change and anthropogenic global warming based on manmade CO2 emissions. As it turns out, the authors’ projections have proven to be rather accurate — and their future is now our present.

The paper, written by a team of atmospheric physicists led by the now-controversial James Hansen at NASA’s Institute for Space Studies at Goddard Space Flight Center, was recently rediscovered by researchers Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Taking a break from research due to illness, the scientists got a chance to look back through some older, overlooked publications.

“It turns out to be a very interesting read,” they noted in their blog on RealClimate.org.

Even though the paper was given 10 pages in Science, it covers a lot of advanced topics related to climate — indicating the level of knowledge known about climate science even at that time.

“The concepts and conclusions have not changed all that much,” van Oldenborgh and Haarsma note. “Hansen et al clearly indicate what was well known (all of which still stands today) and what was uncertain.”

Within the paper, several graphs note the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, both naturally occurring and manmade, and projected a future rise based on the continued use of fossil fuels by humans. Van Oldenborgh and Haarsma overlaid data gathered by NASA and KNMI in recent years and found that the projections made by Hansen et al. were pretty much spot-on.

If anything, the 1981 projections were “optimistic”.

Data from the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index fit rather closely with the 1981 projection (van Oldenborgh and Haarsma)

Hansen wrote in the original paper:

“The global temperature rose by 0.2ºC between the middle 1960’s and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4ºC in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean rend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980’s. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climate zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.”

Now here we are in 2012, looking down the barrel of the global warming gun Hansen and team had reported was there 31 years earlier. In fact, we’ve already seen most of the predicted effects take place.

And that’s not the only prediction that seems to have uncannily come true.

“In light of historical evidence that it takes several decades to complete a major change in fuel use, this makes large climate change almost inevitable,” Hansen et al wrote in anticipation of the difficulties of a global shift away from dependence on carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuels.

“CO2 effects on climate may make full exploitation of coal resources undesirable,” the paper concludes. “An appropriate strategy may be to encourage energy conservation and develop alternative energy sources, while using fossil fuels as necessary during the next few decades.”

As the “next few decades” are now, for us, coming to a close, where do we stand on the encouragement of energy conservation and development on alternative energy sources? Sadly the outlook is not as promising as it should be, not given our level of abilities to monitor the intricate complexities of our planet’s climate and to develop new technologies. True advancement will rely on our acceptance that a change is in fact necessary… a hurdle that is proving to be the most difficult one to clear.

This isn’t about D-day. its about the bill and how much “ownership” of the bill do you accept. Denial is cheap, accepting at least 10% of your calculated share is still cheap, but people will be happier. Multiply this tactic times total countries on Earth and you understand the wish that someone else came along and resolved the overhead costs and issues.
Not to mention the joke that the air we breath was the one thing not taxed yet. But a lot of taxpayers now understand the necesity for those extra taxes they will pay.

Sadly, it would have cost very little to avoid the increased global temperatures and local freaky weather at the time. Now no expenses will suffice, except to set the peak change some century away.

Oh, and Hansen is not controversial. Maybe in the public sphere, but not as a climate scientist which the article well reflects.

It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century,

Around 2009ish I estimated that it was even chances that the rate of signal raise would admit a 3 sigma AGW attribution test when the next IPCC review comes out 2014, making an assumption of the noise and signal variation as normal distributed (many climate factors).

Seems I erred on the cautious side. Ha, so what will climate deniers do when climate science reaches the precision and certainty of physics theories, well beyond the lousy ~ 80 % diagnosis certainty of “sick” patients of medicine? They need to buy those ear mufflers you see people use in bad climates to help with their “la la la – can’t hear you”!

Of course their projections were accurate. Science isn’t performed by incompetent idiots, even though not addressing this misconception is the bread and butter of science in the media. This article is a perfect example of this. Not bashing UT :P, just pointing this out…

You can see the ice has actually grown a little in March and the icecap is now very close to average extent. It’s also grown significantly since 2007. The Antarctic icecap has also grown significantly in the last year and has actually been growing pretty steadily since the mid 1980s.

You need to reevaluate the quality of your sources, Mark. And learn the difference between short-term and long-term patterns. Way too much of the anti-global warming rhetoric depends on deliberately confusing people about which patterns are meaningful and which are not.

Really? The icecaps are melting? Hardly! I think the confusion comes from the scientists who want grant money, and will say and do what ever necessary to get it.

Follow the free money and you will find the corruption.

I realize this is a left wing website, so my views will be ridiculed…after all thats what liberals do!!

But America is on to the hoax of the century called “Global Warming”

I was one of those kids in the 70’s sitting in science class listening to how our polution was gonna cloud up the skies and we were headed for an ice age if we keep it up!! Now its gonna heat things up….Whats up with that?!?!

Almost all of the countries in the world are on board with the need to combat global warming and the consequences it would pose to farming and coastal cities which would be vulnerable to rises in the sea level. Ooops there goes New Orleans.
If only the world were flat. Sigh.

What, the world isn’t flat? I am so not a scientist, but I pay attention. Undoubtable humans are doing something. What that will end up to be like, well, no one really knows now and when we do we are in the future and it took time to get there. So was borne hind-sight. We can see from the little hindsight that there is something going on and the arguement is whether humans are the cause. If not us, than what? Earth, from what I read is in a quietish geological period and the sun’s activities are not really much to write home about. Not one animal species besides humans is building a new coal plant only shightly less as fast as they can get the coal, to burn in it, out of the ground. And then there is the rest of what we do. Anyone that does not see this, is just sheilding their eyes with a book.

Were you around …say in medieval times? During that period the Earth warmed considerably. There were no coal burning plants, automobiles or airplanes… maybe it was the torches they carried around for light…

Why not go back and crawl under your rock of cherry-picked science that meets your conservative talking point agenda and quit trolling on this thread? If you disagree… make your point ONCE and go blow away somewhere in Rush Limbaugh land with the other a-scientific drones?

New Orleans? I would have gone with Venice, or even better, Maldives. Try talking Maldives into believing AGW isn’t real, they’ll laugh in your face, or they would laugh if the ocean wasn’t swallowing up all their islands.

I chose New Orleans as a low lying city in the USA. Some of central London, UK is a reclaimed marsh which is now protected by the Thames flood barrier. The flood barrier has been used significantly more frequently than predicted.

I wonder, just what exactly is it going to take for the nay sayers to face reality? How much farm land has to turn to desert? How much of the ice caps have to melt before it’s seen as a problem? If Venice were to disappear into the the ocean, would they care then, or how about Manhattan? If the New York Stock Exchange became part of the Atlantic Ocean, would that be a problem?

Yes, that explains the increase in the number of serious Hurricanes over the past 20 years, as predicted by the “model”…except, the number went down to an all time low….trivial warming with 10 model variables that all can overwhelm CO2…then predict a hockey stick in the future as a justification for massive social engineering….sorry, the game is up. Time to move the snake oil wagon to the next town before you get tar and feathers here.

Ya, scientists make crap loads of money on bogus grants and live like kings eating caviar and drinking champagne every day… In your fantasy world. Look at satellite images of the icecaps and tell me (us) this is all doctored and inaccurate… REALLY?!

” so my views will be ridiculed…after all thats what liberals do!!”… you mean kinda like YOU’RE doing on this thread with your multiple comments? What a hypocritical imbecile! You’re so jaded, you can’t even see that you’re doing the exact same thing and in the exact same sentence that you ridicule US for doing… Wow… just, … wow…

I suppose as you speak of this global warming bunk you then go jump into your fossil fuel burning car or hop on a jet!! How about every time you heat your house or turn on your lights!! Heck the very computer your writing this on is being fed electricity from a COAL BURNING PLANT!!

No one claimed pollution was going to cause an ice age, I think you made this one up yourself, the idea of a coming ice age was a minority opinion that the media pick up for some reason, unlike global warming which is the consensus, yes I know who would have thought the media would get it wrong.
Why don’t you following the money from the likes of the heart land institute. There is no evidence that supporting global warming is more profitable the supporting global warming denial, in fact there is big money being paid for global warming denial, whereas one the other side the money is just to do good science.

Mark, you are using just raw and real data, and it isn´t enough. AGW is a religion and a political-philosophical position.

They have a dogma and their models (you know what they say about models: bullshit in, bullshit out), so they don´t need reality.

But the fact is that Antarctic ice has been growing, and is now above mean, and that there has been no warming since 1998 (GISS has “cooled” the past to keep an upper trend, but satellite and raw data tell a different tale).

I am always amazed at the “no warming since 1998” quip. 2010 was the warmest year on record, tying 2005. And Arctic sea ice (measured in September) is down considerably since ’98. There’s lots of data related to these factors and more at http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/.

As always, note the trends indicated by the graphs. That’s the important part, much more so than any individual year’s number.

Greater temperatures means more water moister in the air which means more snow. Thanks to more snow the ice caps have been extending further in the winter but its very thin as it only one seasons worth, in the summer the ice recedes further than it has in the past. Places like greenland have large glaciers that form large lakes on top of them in the summer, the lakes then disappear as the water finds its way though crack to the bedrock, the water then acts as a lubricant speeding up the flow of the ice into the see, as the earth get warmer these lake will get larger in the summer and provide more of a lubricating effect, the ice doesn’t have to melt to raise sea levels it just has to enter the sea. Just like adding ice to you drink, the level is not affect by wether the ice is melted or not.
With cycles like the el nino occurring every multiple of 7 years, (ie it a seven year cycle but sometime skip 1 or more in a row), To say global warming is not happening of a flaten of since the 1998, is like say stair cases don’t take you up or down because they have flat but on them. 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2000.

“Antarctic sea ice extent:” Sorry this is actually consistent with global warming, increase in temperature means more moisture in the air, means more snow in places below the zero degree line. In the summer the sea recedes much more than in the past but winter come and the ice come back much further but much thinner because it is only 1 seasons worth. A similar thing is happening with mountain tops getting more snow as the snow line creeps up the mountain.
“UAH Global temperature” this one show an increase, there is a flattening out with the last few years, as there have been other flat periods in the past. The running average, is useless at the ends as it is 13 month centred and at the ends it does not have complete data, also this graph was created in march 2012, and yet most of the drop they show is after this into 2013 which of cause are not real numbers.
“IPCC proyections vs. HadCRUT3” This one seems to have been created by fortune tellers, the amount of actual real data is small, clearly an attempt to hugely exaggerate the fact the the model have not been able to account for the current flattening out in global warming, why don’t they show further into the past? Don’t slip into the perfection fallacy, just because they don’t have perfect knowledge does not mean they have none.

Interesting. It proves once more that walking on the moon does not necessarily imply that you have expertise in other fields of science. That’s why we have experts in those fields. And they are named experts for a reason!

Or do you believe that other astronaut (forgot his name) who claims to have seen alien spaceships? If yes: Congratulations. If no: Think about your link once again!

His point regarding alarmist predictions to obtain funding is a fair opinion. It’s exactly the reason why i’m sceptical of the Global Warming science. When many scientists careers are balancing on whether human caused Global Warming is as alarming as is fed to us, it’s hard not to be sceptical.
Not to mention western governments wanting to get their hands in everyones pockets. Here in Australia, my government wants to slap a carbon tax on us with the false claim it will reduce the temperature of the planet. While i know thats nothing to do with the actual ‘science’, its a huge reason so many people are now passionately against the idea that man is heating the planet. It’s all a re-distribution of wealth.

Why don’t you apply that same scepticism to the other side, there is direct evidence of money attempting to manipulate the fact from people who really do have large amounts. Oh and the idea that people are claiming reducing C02 will reduce temperature instead of just stop the decrease is a flat out lie. Andrew Bolt who has a history or reinterpreting facts, he treats politics as if its a team sport, decided the ‘Tim Flannery’ said that C02 reduction would have no effect for a 1000 years when what he said is it would take 1000 year for temperatures to drop, so to save face what people are claiming has been twisted around to fit his initial delusion.

No sorry they are completely different the goal of reducing c02 is to slow and stop the increase. Anybody who has made an effort to investigate the science know that the problem is not the temperature at the currently level or a little bit warmer, but what the temperature will be 100+ years from now if they keep increasing.

See above post – Although mostly I agree manmade carbon is contributing to long-term warming and should if possible, be reversed (see above posts), I agree that certain directions of government policy in Australia could be better focused.

It is a good start to attempt to create a carbon-reduction economy but I am not sure the incentives for clean energy production and more efficiency will be doled-out correctly, ie. big business seems to get of lightly and small business and consumers seem to bear the brunt of short-term negative economic effects.

I have waded too far into politics – Just wanted to reiterate that I believe there is room in science to allow some people to be sceptical, especially when it is affecting peoples daily lives through government and company policies.

Let’s all debate rationally, presenting facts and allow our fellow readers here to make up their own minds on the issue and possible actions, without generating more angst than necessary.

“Global Warming Science” (vaunted by some, almost worshiped by others): Its focusing film of pure “science” at work, and most dire graph-projections, are, of course, generated through a clear, unfiltered lens (where not a smudge of point, or blur of picture can be discovered, or will be detected). Projections of which are free from biased, manipulative data-selection, and inclusive of all possible contributers, factored-in, at every reading-point of ice flow turn, heat wave pulse, and wind stream change, from Electromagnetically-charged Space above, to thermal Ocean-masses below: The whole PC-picture, (oops, sorry) GW-picture, frames all operating systems (HD clear and true!), and encompasses the entire sweep of the great planetary machine complex (beyond human fathoming, in mechanisms-interacting, and forces at play)–in detailed view of historical backdrop, before any sooty smokestack belched its first emissions.

ALL those Scientists who have critical, even opposing views–are not to be taken seriously–they are not true scientists!

Or, maybe, they are not the tow-the PC-line, steer the narrow prevailing-mainstream-flow, conform-to the consensus-approving Climate-community, navigate by the beckoning lights of currency signs, kind of scientist.

Mr. Aldrin is a down-to-earth man (knows something about mechanical engineering) who has been in real Space. Some of these “scientists” are lost in Office-Desk virtual space–the graph lines of the Real World having escaped them.

Consider Mr. Adrin’s wave of the hand in trends of Age (when Roman and Viking men could sail free, or Ice Sheets froze Europeans fast): how would this dreaded–“scientific”–graph of doom appear, projected BACK through Centuries and Mellenia! Would that revolutionary film (in reverse) play a most “Inconvenient Truth”?

Such a screening, a static discharge could release, in flash of illumination, and shocked realization: A spark of true Scientific lines that might end in a mass of hot air roaring out of the GW blimp (as its Climate men would be seen leaping, and running from its frame, some papers bursting in flame)! Jumping-off the good ship GW, knowing the explosion of combustible gas, would fire the air around the world (as industries examined their red-lined balance sheets, Goverments launched investigations, and everyone else, with an angry exclimation, their thinner wallets and purses–under annoying light bulbs)!

Nice piece of poetry but completely devoid of and science or even reasoning. Global warming has nothing to do the political correctness, it has nothing to do with politics, it is a scientific issue. Resorting to the kind of ‘ignorant reckoning’ that is the basis of politics, (connect global warming to PC and I can make it sound bad) has nothing to do with reasoning, rational thought or following the evidence where every it goes. It is about the pathetic team sport mentality that is the staple of politics where you pick a side and win any way you can. Remember in politics changing you opinion in response to new evidence is considered a weakness, flip flopping, this is because politics is style over reality. Keep you word play, name calling arguments to politics where they unfortunately belong. If you want to have anything valuable to say about science, first start by learning what logical fallacies are, hint they are trick used in politics to win an argument when you don’t want to bother with the fact.

As one “devoid of …science [and] reasoning”, and one who resorts to “ignorant reckoning”, all I will say is we disagree. You have freedom to rebut, “dismantle”, shred, spindle and mutilate my view—and criticize it. I hope I have freedom to give a NON-CONFORMING opinion, now and then. But I must hasten to add, that does NOT excuse unfairly attacking a community in blanket terms.

Critical comments is another thing.

Your reply had a sting of edge. It made me realize some wrong in what I wrote. So, in that sense, it was good, and spurred a little adjustment. One can have a “spirited” debate, can one have a “spirited” opinion–in line with the subject of article? (Rhetorical).

This is an acknowledgment.

Statement: I will engage in no debate.

__________________________________

UT “Rules For Posting” –

2. “Civility and Decorum: Politeness is the top rule here.

Of course, we expect to have spirited debates! That’s fine, as long as THE PEOPLE INVOLVED EXTEND ONE ANOTHER BASIC RESPECT.

Disagreements are inevitable, but even in those situations you must still be nice.

Attack the ideas, NOT THE PERSON(s) presenting them. If you’ve got concerns with what someone is saying, feel free dismantle their arguments, but do not resort to AD HOMINEM OR PERSONAL ATTACKS. Be mindful and respectful of others’ feelings ….”

“Global Warming Science” (vaunted by some, almost worshiped by others): Its focusing film of pure “science” at work, and most dire graph-projections, are, of course, generated through a clear, unfiltered lens (where not a smudge of point, or blur of picture can be discovered, or will be detected). Projections free from bias, manipulative data-selection, and, of course, inclusive of all possible contributing factors, publishing EVERY reading-point of ice flow turn, heat wave pulse, and wind stream change, from Electromagnetically-charged Space downfalls from above, to thermal Ocean-masses from below: The the full, air-brush-free PC-picture, (oops, sorry) GW-picture frames all operating systems (HD clear and true!), encompassing the entire sweep of the great planetary machine-complex (in mechanisms-interacting, and forces at play)–history’s backdrop view (before any sooty smokestack belched its first Co2).

ALL the Scientists who hold critical, even opposing views–are not to be taken seriously–they are not true scientists!

Or, maybe, they are not the tow-the heavy PC-line, steer the current prevailing course of flow, conform-to the consensus-approving community atmosphere, irresistably navigating by the beckoning lights of currency signs, kind of scientist.

From what I have read and seen, Mr. Aldrin seems a down-to-earth, common-sense man (knows something about mechanical engineering), who has been in real Space. Some of these “scientists” are lost in virtual space–the graph lines of the Real World having escaped them. ….

Consider Mr. Adrin’s wave of the hand in trends of Age (when ancient Mariners, and Norsemen too, could sail free in warm seas, or when Ice Sheets froze North Europeans fast, where frozen land-rivers, angry sea-storms, discouraging ocean-waves, and south-floating ice-bergs, blocked their maritime paths): how would the predictions of doom be charted, in graph-trends over Centuries and Millennia?

Would a new revolutionary film (of broader scope, framing the total panorama) play a most “Inconvenient Truth”?

Its public-screening, a static discharge could release, in illuminating flash, and its shocked realization: sparked by real-world lines, ignited by Science uncompromised (reflecting nothing but numbers!), one that might end in a mass of hot air roaring out of the high-flying GW-Blimp. Under the hot-gases, would some of its Climate men, and company, be seen leaping from the heat, running from the collapsing frame, as error-lined (graph imaging) papers burst in flame? An explosive exposure of the good Airship-GW, might enlighten the world atmosphere: When Industries reexamine their red-lined balance sheets; Governments reassess cost-IN-effective legislation, while launching heated investigations; and everyone else, with angry exclamations(!), examine their thinner wallets, and lighter purses (under those annoying light bulbs)!

You have said a lot. And most of it is irrelevant, since it gives no new insights, and no new arguments.

Just one thing:

From what I have read and seen, Mr. Aldrin seems a down-to-earth, common-sense man (knows something about mechanical engineering), who has been in real Space. I just wonder if some of the hardline GW “scientists” may be lost in virtual space. ….

This is exactly what I mean. Aldrin is a “common-sense man knowing something about engineering”. Nice, and this does of course qualify him to make comments about climate and Global Warming? Exactly why? He has not studied it. He has not worked in it for several years. I am quite sure that he has not read to many papers. He mainly uses “common-sense” (to bad that common-sense mainly fails in physics – ask the quanta!) and some knowledge that he read (potentially) here and there. I sincerely doubt his qualification for a serious comment in this issue.

I, for one, am an astrophysicist with some experience regarding blazar jets and some other fields in astrophysics. I have no real experience in climate physics and my broad knowledge of physics (during my studies) only helps a bit to understand what’s going on. That is why I rely on those who actually STUDIED that thing. Those who made a life-long career in that field. Actually, those people would rely on me (hopefully ;)) if they would like to know something about blazars.

Answer me this: Yould you cut out an appendix just because you have seen some episodes of Emergency Room? I would go to a hospital and rely on the doctor, aka the expert!

A courtesy responsive, since my comment was in “reply” (I wish to avoid debates):

I can only respect you as a scientist. You, as such have some solid grounding in Physics. Mr. Adrin (at this point, I do not like speaking for a man I do not know) had such a solid ground in the principles of Mechanics, and was capable enough in all that was required, that he was one of the chosen few to take the first crucial journey to another world (a lot rode on that epic Apollo flight), where this pilot-engineer could come to stand on the Moon’s forbidding surface, and gaze-back at his Homeworld.

I have deep respect for those men. I, for one, will listen when such men speak.

If a veteran of an elite team, says there is an alien frozen in a Roswell vault, well, that’s another thing. Are all, then, to be dismissed? (I am looking through a two way mirror, in saying this!)

By the way, one moment’s thought, does not an entire life shade.

– The divisions of Science branch-out from one tree(?). So a man in engineering and mechanics might have a bit more insight (from his professional perspective) than a layman, in, say, reading about the system and “mechanics” of a Blazer. It might not be deep, or great. But it might be more than the average lay reader. Like wise with you, in reading about developments in some other field: and just having a science-trained mind, can afford a deeper grasp, I would guess.

The “Physics” of a thing will have more definition for you than another, the “Mechanics” of a thing may have more definition for him.

The Earth’s Weather Engine have a Physics to it, and a “Mechanics”, in a loose sense(?).

– Massive Black Hole; staggering light-speed-approaching Jets, streaming over vast distances, and all the associated “mechanical” motions of its generating System, the “physical” interactions, and so forth. I have read some general Science on these Core Power Engines. And being just a dumb lay man, I have dimly understood (I think) a gear-work mechanics involved (action-reaction effect): A-Power, generates B-motion, inducing-C reaction, causing D-output: a car engine: pistons(?), transmission gears, drive-shaft – wheels turn, motion induced – lights go on – or a Black Hole’s humming “mechanism” fires a Jet towards Earth.

(NOT trying to be technically accurate, but making a point – very simplistically; so please, don’t disassemble me.)

– In distant light of your field of study, by your own criteria, does another of said training (requiring its own form of mind-honing logic, and study-sharpening discipline) have any less right, or weight to give his opinion, on a high-pressured, atmospheric topic, than you (certainly more than I)? Yes, high-profile people do have a certain responsibility…

Neither you, nor I(!), can speak for what another man (neither one of us is acquainted with), in regard to what he has studied or read. Or even the scope of what he understands from a brief comment.

– Really, Dr. Flimmer, is World Climate the same as the surreal world of “quanta”? This may not cut it, but can a down-to-earth Farmer, who might not know a “quanta” from an Event Horizon, be capable of “common sense” in Climate view beyond his fields (whether green, parched or flooded)? Rhetorical.
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“Would you cut out an appendix just because you have seen some episodes of Emergency Room? [Of course not.] I would go to a hospital and rely on the doctor, aka the expert!”
__________________________

If you valued your life – and wanted to be sure – before undertaking serious surgery – agree to a costly procedure (GW alarmists want to perform a traumatic, life-impacting, economy-dislocating transplant, from what I understand) – then you might just want to seek-out a second opinion (or more) of a certified, licensed specialist, in area of concern.

Are there not trained “specialists” who question and challenge the dire diagnosis (not necessarily disputing the passing symptoms)? A lot is at stake: more than a local “appendix” removal.

– I am not the bulldoze-the-meadow, clear-cut the forest, dam up the river, or strip-mine the hills, type of guy. But more a manage, and care for the Earth – preserve the Planetary real-estate, while using and developing (in an environment-friendly way) all that has been given humanity (to realize his blazing astronomical potential), kind of person—like flying to the Moon.
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– Privilege to actually communicate with a real Astrophysicist (did not know who you were): Hope you men, and women(?), can unravel one intriguing mystery of the heavens: What surreal secrets lie hidden beyond the giant’s dark horizon, or wonders lie illuminated by the BH “System’s” dynamo powers, spinning, revolving and rotating, like some huge gyroscope assembly (seen too many illustrations, I guess).

Success in decoding the mysteries concealed in lairs of Titans, locked within their wave-riding messengers!

A courtesy responsive, since my comment was in “reply” (I wish to avoid debates):

I can only respect you as a scientist. You, as such have some solid grounding in Physics. Mr. Adrin (at this point, I do not like speaking for a man I do not know) had such a solid ground in the principles of Mechanics, and was capable enough in all that was required, that he was one of the chosen few to take the first crucial journey to another world (a lot rode on that epic Apollo flight), where this pilot-engineer could come to stand on the Moon’s forbidding surface, and gaze-back at his Homeworld.

I have deep respect for those men. I, for one, will listen when such men speak.

If a veteran of an elite team, says there is an alien frozen in a Roswell vault, well, that’s another thing. Are all, then, to be dismissed? (I am looking through a two way mirror, in saying this!)

By the way, one moment’s thought, does not an entire life shade.

– The divisions of Science branch-out from one tree(?). So a man in engineering and mechanics might have a bit more insight (from his professional perspective) than a layman, in, say, reading about the system and “mechanics” of a Blazer. It might not be deep, or great. But it might be more than the average lay reader. Like wise with you, in reading about developments in some other field: and just having a science-trained mind, can afford a deeper grasp, I would guess.

The “Physics” of a thing will have more definition for you than another, the “Mechanics” of a thing may have more definition for him.

The Earth’s Weather Engine have a Physics to it, and a “Mechanics”, in a loose sense(?).

– Massive Black Hole; staggering light-speed-approaching Jets, streaming over vast distances, and all the associated “mechanical” motions of its generating System, the “physical” interactions, and so forth. I have read some general Science on these Core Power Engines. And being just a dumb lay man, I have dimly understood (I think) a gear-work mechanics involved (action-reaction effect): A-Power, generates B-motion, inducing-C reaction, causing D-output: a car engine: pistons(?), transmission gears, drive-shaft – wheels turn, motion induced – lights go on – or a Black Hole’s humming “mechanism” fires a Jet towards Earth.

(NOT trying to be technically accurate, but making a point – very simplistically; so please, don’t disassemble me.)

– In distant light of your field of study, by your own criteria, does another of said training (requiring its own form of mind-honing logic, and study-sharpening discipline) have any less right, or weight to give his opinion, on a high-pressured, atmospheric topic, than you (certainly more than I)? Yes, high-profile people do have a certain responsibility…

Neither you, nor I(!), can speak for what another man (neither one of us is acquainted with), in regard to what he has studied or read. Or even the scope of what he understands from a brief comment.

– Really, Dr. Flimmer, is World Climate the same as the surreal world of “quanta”? This may not cut it, but can a down-to-earth Farmer, who might not know a “quanta” from an Event Horizon, be capable of “common sense” in Climate view beyond his fields (whether green, parched or flooded)? Rhetorical.
__________________________

“Would you cut out an appendix just because you have seen some episodes of Emergency Room? [Of course not.] I would go to a hospital and rely on the doctor, aka the expert!”
__________________________

If you valued your life – and wanted to be sure – before undertaking serious surgery – agree to a costly procedure (GW alarmists want to perform a traumatic, life-impacting, economy-dislocating transplant, from what I understand) – then you might just want to seek-out a second opinion (or more) of a certified, licensed specialist, in area of concern.

Are there not trained “specialists” who question and challenge the dire diagnosis (not necessarily disputing the passing symptoms)? A lot is at stake: more than a local “appendix” removal.

– I am not the bulldoze-the-meadow, clear-cut the forest, dam up the river, or strip-mine the hills, type of guy. But more a manage, and care for the Earth – preserve the Planetary real-estate, while using and developing (in an environment-friendly way) all that has been given humanity (to realize his blazing astronomical potential), kind of person—like flying to the Moon.
_______________

– Privilege to actually communicate with a real Astrophysicist (did not know who you were): Hope you men, and women(?), can unravel one intriguing mystery of the heavens: What surreal secrets lie hidden beyond the giant’s dark horizon, or wonders lie illuminated by the BH “System’s” dynamo powers, spinning, revolving and rotating, like some huge gyroscope assembly (seen too many illustrations, I guess).

Success in decoding the mysteries concealed in lairs of Titans, locked within their wave-riding messengers!

I did not mean to disrespect Mr. Aldrin. He has certainly accomplished great things which are far beyond my reach. And I also agree with him, that is to say, I listen to him on things regarding spaceflight (as an example). That is certainly his area of expertise.

However, climate is another topic. And in this field I will certainly listen more to the arguments and reasons of the related experts than to Mr. Aldrin. Just because the experts know more and know better, since they have studied climate for a very long time giving them the expertise in that field. (On the other hand, I wouldn’t listen to them as much as to Mr. Aldrin on topics regarding spaceflight.)
There is a nice saying: “Cobbler, stick to your last.” It fits here very well!

Btw: Since I am from Europe I only have an idea of the heat and noise of the “debate” regarding climate in the US (however, I think I have a pretty solid idea what’s going on in the US 😉 ). There is one thing in which I actually agree with Mr. Aldrin: Things should cool down.
Because: There is no real debate, only a political one. The science is clear and overwhelmingly pointing into one direction (and yes, I rely on the experts here!).

But even if it would not be settled, think about the following: Burning fossil fuels is causing pollution. Reducing pollution is not a bad thing, is it? And a very important fact: We will sooner or later reach “peak oil”. Let it be 30 or 40 years, it doesn’ matter. Sooner or later we will run out of oil. This means, obviously, we have to get away from oil. Our economies will have to adept, they must change! And what’s wrong with change that actually helps to get (probably) a cleaner environment? Sure, the old economies (which try to save their money right now…) will go down. But new ones will rise! And those countries which make that change first will have the lead! I think, this is obvious, is it not? Change now, and you will have a head start!
There is a chance! Why not go for it?

On cross-field advise, or suggestion. No major disagreement. What you
say is sensible.

No, a “Cobbler” should not advise a Taylor on his business. This thought
just came, though: they BOTH can understand Business: running and operating one.

So, your not a Climatologist. But, you know more than a little something about
the Science Process, and how it is, or should be conducted.

Some, you surely know, have questioned the Science METHOD behind some of what
maps-out the doom and gloom forecasts. Now, whether they are right or wrong, each has to critically judge for themselves. Being a hot topic, that stirs the atmosphere (just scan this forum!), opinions will be anything but cool (under those new lamps).

“There is no real debate, only a political one. The science is clear and overwhelmingly pointing into one direction (and yes, I rely on the experts here!).” Well, so many do, and believe.

– Much sound reason in your closing paragraph: Traumatic change is coming, regardless. It may even be too late to avoid some disastrous dislocation – at the least (your point on Earth’s Oil Tank needle approaching “Empty”).

“Our economies will have to adept, they must change!” I wholeheartedly agree. “And what’s wrong with change that actually helps to get (probably) a cleaner environment?” NOTHING.

But HOW that change is carried-out, enforced, timed…

An extreme example(!), admittedly: Stalin forced economic change (different, yes) – and bulldozed communities and peoples into the ground, and left a wounded earth in the reckless industrial-treads of his Plan’s wake, it has not yet healed, fully recovered.

“… new [economies] … will rise! And those countries which make that change first will have the lead! I think, this is obvious, is it not? Change now, and you will have a head start! There is a chance! Why not go for it?”

In frame of all the above interchange, I can agree! – let the green (small g) light be seen!

Of course, we expect to have spirited debates! That’s fine, as long as THE PEOPLE INVOLVED EXTEND ONE ANOTHER BASIC RESPECT.

Disagreements are inevitable, but even in those situations you must still be nice.

Attack the ideas, NOT THE PERSON(s) presenting them. If you’ve got concerns with what someone is saying, feel free dismantle their arguments, but do not resort to AD HOMINEM OR PERSONAL ATTACKS. Be mindful and respectful of others’ feelings ….”

OK, here is my 2 cents.. It is helpful to avoid labeling one another. If the climate scientists are right we will avoid painful, harmful and expensive climate change. If the sceptics are right we will avoid wasting time, money and effort.

Either way, most people are motivated to help their fellow human somehow.

With that in mind, I believe it is helpful to take all information on-board and focus the discussion on something we should all be able to agree on: Accelerated the devlopment of non-poluting power sources.

I hope developed nations will follow China’s lead in developing the Thorium MSR (molten salt reactor). This technology was developed by Sandia Labs in New Mexico by the USA in the late 1960’s.

A female inventor tried unsuccessfully to have US $1BN invested by US and UK governments respectively for a pilot commercial scale Thorium MSR power plant.

China has now made the investment and is running the trial. Apparently scientist say there is over 1000 years worth (at currently population growth and energy consumption rates) of thorium that can be easily mined and it exists on all the major continents. If successful, a new energy economy will be created.

Among major advantages of the Thorium energy cycle worth mentioning are: Recycling of Uranium/Plutonium down to isotopes useful in medical and industrial applications, nuclear waste disposal and non-proliferation (if uranium and plutonium become a more valuable energy commodity then why build weapons – I suspect this may be the reason the existing nuclear industries in USA and UK blocked this IP).

Wezley

ps. sorry the post was almost as long as the article but it was hard to condense this information any further and preserve its salience to the subject matter.

Very funny! AGW denialists shouldn’t comment on science, they look so foolish when they spout so many errors in so little space.

If you _had_ one source against the thousands of climate papers that support AGW, you would give it. Alas…
—————
No, it is _not_ helpful to avoid ridiculing nutters by “labeling” them. Ridicule of religious fanatics or other incompetents have always been one of the best weapons of rational persons through the ages.

Moreover, you yourself engages in labeling when you incorrectly call science denialists “sceptics” [sic], as skeptics are commonly agreed on bases their skepticism on accepted science. Climate science and its observation of AGW are accepted…

I don’t think the thorium nuclear cycle, or closed breeder T to U233, is a panacea for solving our resource and energy problems. However, the LFTR system is one of a number of options for the 21st century which may ameliorate some of these issues. Also the LFTR does not have the meltdown issues of the U to P nuclear cycle. The plutonium breeding cycle was chosen because the plutonium could be used in nuclear weaponry.

I agree with you on all points. I singled out thorium because i believe world governments have a duty of care to implement it to help get rid of all the dangerous nuclear waste – and burying nuclear waste or putting it under the water table doesnt seem wise either.
Thorium in combination with wind, solar, hydroelectric can get us where we need to be until fusion can be safely commercialised.

I do think these huge stores of plutonium we have accumulated should be consumed. As I understand we have banked about as much energy as is contained in Iraq in the form of oil. So the standard Rankin cycle nuclear reactors can be used to consume this. As this happens we might the transition to the thorium LFTR.

The energy matrix we have in the future will require some stabilizing element that can take up slack from renewable sources. Solar and wind power are dependent on diurnal and meteorological conditions, and so down times need to be taken up by something. The LFTR seems to be the best option for this through this century and maybe beyond.

Beware the beast Man, for he is the Devil’s pawn. Alone among God’s primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed. Yea, he will murder his brother to possess his brother’s land. Let him not breed in great numbers, for he will make a desert of his home and yours. Shun him; drive him back into his jungle lair, for he is the harbinger of death.

actually Nostradamus does’t make any predictions, people go over his vary poetic metaphorical writing and try to make it fit something, often passages that where once supposed to be predictions of one the ‘Napoleon War’ are reinterpreted to be a prediction of something else later on, world war 1 then 2. Global warming scientist have made measurable predictions that can not be made to fit any outcome.

Climate change has done to SCIENCE and journalism what naughty priests and suicide bombers did for religion.

EXAGGERATION is not a crime because its’ the “nature” of science to assume a crisis is real then study the effects instead of causes, exaggerate and play the game but 26 years of needless panic and taking us to another false war has brought a back-lash of former climate crisis believer rage.
Here is proof the “crisis” was exaggerated and therefore not a “crisis”;

If it truly was the planetary threat they say it is, the millions of people in the global scientific community would be marching and acting like it was a threat to their doomed children as well.
Meanwhile, the entire world of SCIENCE had allowed bank-funded and corporate-run “CARBON TRADING STOCK MARKETS” to trump 3rd world fresh water relief, starvation rescue and 3rd world education for just over 26 years of insane attempts at climate CONTROL. Nice job girls.

“Meanwhile, the entire world of SCIENCE had allowed bank-funded and corporate-run “CARBON TRADING STOCK MARKETS””
Sorry who you think scientist are, its not some global organisation with political clout. They are just people with educations in a particular fields. They don’t all meet up in their international Scientist headquarters and vote on how they are going to manipulate world governments. This would make a good south park episode though.

“Meanwhile, the entire world of SCIENCE had allowed bank-funded and corporate-run “CARBON TRADING STOCK MARKETS””
Sorry who you think scientist are, its not some global organisation with political clout. They are just people with educations in a particular fields. They don’t all meet up in their international Scientist headquarters and vote on how they are going to manipulate world governments. This would make a good south park episode though.

The climate may be warming, but it has yet to be broven that Man is the cause.

A recent report showed that the Medieval Warm Period was not localized to Europe and indicates that the entire planet was warmer at that time. If CO2 is the culprit, from where was it produced since Man’s industry did not exist?

Anthropogenic global warming is the opinion of some scientist, not all. But, even if it were the opinion of ALL, it is still opinion. Put AGW to the test of science, put it to the Scientific Method and see what comes out in the wash. Science is not opinion.

You clearly did not read the paper, or you do not understand how science works. Science is not about proving things. Science is about benchmarking predictions of theories with measurements and data. The uncontrolled experiment of releasing CO_2 into the atmosphere has resulted in the sort of temperature increase this theory predicted. We may then say the data supports the theory.

climatologist predicted that the upper atmosphere would cool whilst the lower warmed because greenhouse gases slow the rate of heat loss from the lower atmosphere to the upper atmosphere, that came true.
climatologist predicted that the poles would warm faster that the equator because green house gasses hold onto heat longer and therefore heat is more evenly distributed, that came true.
climatologist predicted that the average temperature would increase by 1 degree by now, a study sponsored by one of the Koch brothers (big oil guys and famous for sponsoring global warming denial science), and performed by a scientist who up until recently did not agree with the consensus of global warming, (probable why the Koch brothers sponsored him) found that indeed the earths average temperature has increased by 0.9 degrees since 1950, a couple of weeks later he changed his position on man made global warming and called for action by politicians.

The evidence is clear cut. There is no doubt than humankind has damaged the natural environment just by the processes of living and its huge usage requirements for energy. If that is a part of the function of the natural world clearly proves you own opinion amount to zero.

Cam if the global warming was caused by an increase of radiation of the sun there would be a sign of temperature increase in the stratosphere, and area above the troposphere that is not effected by human-made carbon emission. Guess what: it’s the same as 200 years ago. The radiation caused heating of the climate is inaccurate.
And another thing that really bugs me: Scientists don’t act out on their opinion. They only state research results that show a significance. Conflict in the scientific world often arises due to stakeholders interests in their own benefit.

Wow – which is worse. The Doom & Gloom Science of “12-21-2012” or this? Remember that this was written right after the TIMES: GLOBAL ICE AGE COMING! Also when the Solar Cycle changed …. (science) … I guess things are getting, thanks Obama! for nothing, in the World of Astronomy so we have to go Politically Correct Preaching???? Guess so!!

The idea of a imminent coming ice age was never the scientific consensus, this was a minority opinion pretty much trumpeted by one scientist which the media for some reason pickup on. Man made global warming started as a science in the 1950’s as a minority but respectable opinion, it become a majority opinion by the 70’s about 75% of climatologist, and then went on to become the over welling consensus that it is today thank to the increasing amount of science, and because prediction like the upper atmosphere cooling and the lower warming as a result of greenhouse gasses slowing the rate of heat loss from the lower atmosphere to the upper, or the pole warming more quickly a consequence of heat being held onto longer within the lower atmosphere and therefore ave more time to distribute more evenly throughout the lower atmosphere.

When you put the Global Warming E-mails Gate – showing from some of the ‘founders’ it was/is a scam.

When you had the UN BAN the nay sayers from the so called summit.

Why did they ban the scientist that were ‘nay sayers’.

If the science is so ‘solid’?? You even have the BIG PREACHERS of this living their lives 180 degrees to what they “preach”. Even the Rev. Al Gore is living his life with ZERO change showing he believes this.

Bottom line there is a “consensus” that says, “Yes.” and they work very very hard to ban – edit – censor the nay sayers.

Plus if Obama had even used that $500,000,000.00 for NASA instead of the clearly debunked SOLYNDRA … imagine what NASA could have done with that extra 1/2 Billion Dollars! A much better return that SOLYNDRA was.

So instead of having topics of Astronomy and Space – thanks to Obama, now we have to dreg up Political Talking Points that have N O T H I N G to do with Space/Astronomy. Kind of sad … no seriously sad how low Universe Today has had to sink for topics. Very Sad.

All three independent inquiries on climategate found no evidence of a scam. The supposed hiding of a decline in temperature was in fact a decline in tree ring tree growth among a group of european trees, it was not a secret it was publicly discusse ‘the tree ring anomaly’. The claim that one scientist expressed doubts is false, he never used the word doubt or any synonym of the word doubt. As the conservative economist magazine put it, anyone who thinks he is expressing doubts about global warming is foolish, he knows there are short term variation in climate and he is expressing his frustration that he does not have enough data to model these short term variations.
I don’t know anything about the un bans but you don’t invite creationist to a discussion on evolution, I am guessing that in reality you just had to meet publishing in journals criteria.
Some scientist claiming his crappy paper is not publish is not evidence of a cove up. Most so called paper on global warming denial will just rehash issue that have already been answered or raise issue that don’t have anything to do with any of the claim of the science, like a paper that said global warming was false because heat can not move from the upper atmosphere to the lower, nobody said it could.
Al Gore as I understand it has invested a lot of money into green technology instead of more predicable investments, but of cause this is supposed to damn him for putting his money where his mouth, damned if he does damned if he doesn’t. The guy has lots of money and as a consequence he is going to have a large carbon footprint, even if he gave his money away he would just increase the carbon footprint of the people he gave it too. You should judge his footprint as a per dollar value to see what he really is doing, don’t know what it is, I not american and don’t know much about american politics. The solution to reducing c02 is to change our energy sources, low watt light bulbs means you just save money to spend on some other form of energy.
Obama and NASA is just flat out irrelevant and again I don’t know much about american politics, but I thought he was trying to encourage the private sector to get involved which is a good thing, and isn’t america in a recession at the moment. Besides all of the real science NASA has done has been with the unmaned stuff, the manned stuff is just engineering stunts.
NASA plays a big part in Global Warming science, and you are only objecting to the inclusion of Global Warming science in Universe Today because you think it is a scam, which is as about a credible position as 911 truthers, moon landing hoxes and big phama conspiracies. There is no evidence of global conspiracy among Global Warming scientist, some second rate scientist bitching because his crap paper is not taken seriously, does not count, Global Warming Scientist are regularly investigated, often by republican politicians and every time they come of clean, why haven’t the republicans uncovered the scam.
Every time you resort to political name calling you broadcasting the fact that you are emotionally invested in ‘your political team winning’ instead of going where the facts go.

Are you really that much of a dunderhead or did someone hire you to act like one on this forum? It’s astonishing that anyone interested in science would hold such attitudes in the face of such overwhelming evidence.

Yes, it’s particularly doom-and-gloom when *you* don’t want to change. “But I *liiike* my SUV and my coal-fired power plants! I *can’t* change!” is the typical attitude that needs to be changed before the public even starts accepting that change needs to happen.

The fact that people can still debate over whether or not AGW even exist,… or if it exist, whether or not humans are the cause of it,… just goes to show you how screwed we really are. Sadly the point of no return for humans has come and passed; this debate should have been over and finished with, decades ago.

Homo sapiens are a species that need amply time to adapt to new changes; we are not capable of undergoing dramatic changes over night, and it’s just not within human nature to do so. We have squandered what little time we had to adapt, and take real action towards this problem on frivolous arguments. Now dramatic solutions are needed to solve the problems facing our species, and we are unlikely to solve these problems within the given time. …As it seems it is not within our nature to do so, and time is a luxury humans cannot afford. I wish all humans the best of luck in the coming century or so, as we face our inevitable extinction.

Torbjörn – Buddy, you are acting like a troll, posting the same comment over and over. Plus, isn’t this a discussion board? You say you don’t want those with opposing views to even comment here. This is one of the self inflicted problems the AGW group has and still fails to recognize. The informed public wants to hear all sides of the argument aired. When one side tries to silence the other, they are viewed as bullies and lose followers, whether concensus or minority, it doesn’t matter. Please stop bullying and allow discussion without trolling.

Actually it promotes how utterly ignorant the naysayers are. Unqualified, non-scientifically trained ‘experts’, nattering on about something they either don’t understand nor with the ability to decipher the complex nature of the problem. Just because it is hard to understand, does not mean it is wrong or hides an agenda or some completely wacko conspiracy theory.

Your response, and the previous one, here easily fit into this notion. Failing to see the connections between astronomy or space science to climate changes shows your overall ignorance. It is one part of gaining the appropriate evidence through observations from space, meaning new knowledge allows scientists to learn what is going in regards climate change.

All your promoting here is ignorance by placing your head in the sand rather than finding an unbiassed appraisal of a very complex subject.

The only acrimony here is that very narrow-minded sheep are making silly statements based on dubious knowledge or fact. Frankly I pity your (and others) utter foolishness.

Actually it promotes how utterly ignorant the naysayers are. Unqualified, non-scientifically trained ‘experts’, nattering on about something they either don’t understand nor with the ability to decipher the complex nature of the problem. Just because it is hard to understand, does not mean it is wrong or hides an agenda or some completely wacko conspiracy theory.

Your response, and the previous one, here easily fit into this notion. Failing to see the connections between astronomy or space science to climate changes shows your overall ignorance. It is one part of gaining the appropriate evidence through observations from space, meaning new knowledge allows scientists to learn what is going in regards climate change.

All your promoting here is ignorance by placing your head in the sand rather than finding an unbiassed appraisal of a very complex subject.

The only acrimony here is that very narrow-minded sheep are making silly statements based on dubious knowledge or fact. Frankly I pity your (and others) utter foolishness.

It is actual a balance point between fire and ice, where at the moment, humankind, by its continues unsustainable abuses of the planet’s atmosphere (and crust), to artificially modify the natural narrow balance point to induce real change on the Earth’s climate.

If you take the humans out of the equation, then the same natural balance point has no need to compensate for the influence of humans.

My post was about a viable, practical clean energy source that is here now and could both help wean us all off fossil fuels and also help disable the ticking environmental timebomb that is uranium/plutonium based power (from a waste and profliferation point of view)

sheesh.. I find that the argument is just a distraction and perhaps it more
productive for people to form consensus that clean power sources and addressing serious emvironmental issues

Hey people, you’re wasting time discussing like this.
Global Warming is the coolest thing that is happening to our planet…
It will mean sunken cities e sinners gone bye bye, more beaches &surfing, global tropicalization
and whatever. There is nothing you can really do right now to change it, but it would be wise to
practice some snowboarding and ski and to make that one-time-in-your-life visit to Alaska, unless you wanna see those glaciers only in pictures.

This is garbage, the fact is before this was the reality that they found another planet effecting our Solar System dubbed Planet X, the Summerian documented this planet and called it Nibiru. This is what is effecting the Magetism of the North and South poles. Creating fluctuation in temperatures in regions throughout the planet. The Earth is not experiencing Global Warming, that is a lie created by the Carbon peddlers from Government and scientist employed to peddle the lie. The fact is our planet is experiencing a natural effect and if you believe in their CO2 story well why is it Australian Summer is colder and for the past 10 years and why is it no one reports truth? Reason is because the entire CO2 myth is a lie made to make Trillions of Dollars from tax payers. Only a moron can believe such garbage.

On cross-field advise, or suggestion. No major disagreement. What you
say is sensible.

No, a “Cobbler” should not advise a Taylor on his business. This thought
just came, though: they BOTH can understand Business: running and operating one.

So, your not a Climatologist. But, you know more than a little something about
the Science Process, and how it is, or should be conducted.

Some, you surely know, have questioned the Science METHOD behind some of what
maps-out the doom and gloom forecasts. Now, whether they are right or wrong, each has to judge for
themselves – critically, hopefully. Being a hot topic, that stirs the atmosphere (just scan this forum!), opinions will be anything but cool (under those new lamps).

“There is no real debate, only a political one. The science is clear and overwhelmingly pointing into one direction (and yes, I rely on the experts here!).” Well, so many do, and believe.

– Much sound reason in your closing paragraph: Traumatic change is coming, regardless. It may even be too late to avoid some disastrous dislocation – at the least (your point on Earth’s Oil Tank needle approaching “Empty”).

“Our economies will have to adept, they must change!” I wholeheartedly agree. “And what’s wrong with change that actually helps to get (probably) a cleaner environment?” NOTHING.

But HOW that change is carried-out, enforced, timed…

An extreme example(!), admittedly: Stalin forced economic change (different, yes) – and bulldozed communities and peoples into the ground, and left a wounded earth in the reckless industrial-treads of his Plan’s wake, it has not yet healed, fully recovered.

“… new [economies] … will rise! And those countries which make that change first will have the lead! I think, this is obvious, is it not? Change now, and you will have a head start! There is a chance! Why not go for it?”

In frame of all the above interchange, I can agree! – let the green (small g) light be seen!

While we in the western, developed world can get on our high horses and wring our hands at the prospect of increasing temperatures the nations who are and will be increasingly responsible for these rises will NOT stop burning coal and oil. China, India and Brazil are undergoing their Industrial Revolutions as we did 150-200 years ago and you can rest assured they will not put a halt to their burning of fossil fuels until they are at the equivalent level we are today. It doesn’t matter how many Guardian-reading types trade in their Range Rovers for a bloody Prius or how many useless wind turbines are built across Europe and America the fact remains that the ’emerging’ nations want their heavy industries and they will continue to pollute the atmosphere for decades to come. It is a form of neo-colonialism for we in the developed west to tell them to stop because we know what is best for them and to consider the state of the planet for ‘our children’s’ sake. The preachiness coming out of the developed world is truly sickening because the hidden message is, “I’m sorry China/India but you’re going to have to stay in the past because we’re concerned about the Maldives sinking and we’ll have nowhere to take our holidays” This attitude of “we’re comfortable and you Third Worlders can lump it” is intolerable.