EDIT: Less than 500K seems rediculously low for HD DVD since launch. How does that jive with 175K players and a high attach rate?

think about it, it is not 175k sinse launch. In June Toshiba Global said they shipped the 20k player (WW), in Oct they shipped #50k (WW). Toshiba NA said last year 70k HD DVD players shipped (NA) and most likely around 60k sold (NA).

If 10k players sold to NA in the firt few months then even if the average is 5 movies it is still 50k.

I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.

it isn't if you think about it. The problem is that most people don't realize that shipped means left the replicator and means that in a few weeks that many will reach the distributor then the store and lastly the shelves, some would not have been at the store when you read the article (let alone have been bought when you read it- obviously there is a good chance they sold reached there by now). Then go look at your store (obviously a bit late now) how many disks are on the shelves? if there are 100 (to pick a nice round number) imagine how many stores there are and if many have roughly how many it adds up to.

I would like to agree with this analogy but it ignores the concept of "momentum". These things have a certain inertia about them, and the further ahead one side gets, the easier it is to get further ahead.

Skogan I would also add it is missing the big picture. The match was organized by the guy in Saw and there is a 20 ton weight covering the match and a timer ticking down to when it is released. The timer will be stopped if one is declared the winner. That 20 ton weight is DVD

okay.. now here's a very rough set of calculations to maybe help understand the 1.5 million shipped discs statement..

it involves taking amazon data now we can see stock levels. I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

now, let's use those 60 units as a ballpark average figure for each title, bearing in mind some will sell a lot more but the ones in the lowest rankings will sell very little in a 2 week period. There's about 150 titles.

now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will...

Because we all know that once hd dvd disappears everyone will rush out in droves to buy their $1000 br player.

do this, go to the high end projector forum and start a poll asking for those that have not bought an HD DVD or BD player if there was no format war would you buy a player at 1000$ today? yes/no and then look at the result. I know a few people that have said as long as the winner is not clear that they won't buy anything.

do this, go to the high end projector forum and start a poll asking for those that have not bought an HD DVD or BD player if there was no format war would you buy a player at 1000$ today? yes/no and then look at the result. I know a few people that have said as long as the winner is not clear that they won't buy anything.

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

BD has proven to be the better format only on paper. In real life, HD DVD has been better. Although arguably, they are about the same.

Still, HD DVD would require less retooling of the replication facilities, and cost less, (yes, even cost to replicate). So kill BD

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

I thought HD DVD still had the higher SI numbers. Am I wrong?

Are you still trying to use that one data point to prove a trend? Hopefully (for you) a trend will emerge... but for right now you're putting a lot of meaning on it.

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

No, because BD continues to feed people BS. Until I see full disclosure from BDA about the truth regarding their players and their capabilities, I will continue to point out the fallacy of buying into spec sheets rather than finished products.

This sounds like this thread's numbers. ONE data point doesn't establish a trend.

you are right, but like this thread you have some people posting some self-deluded comments with no proof and others trying to understand the real world looking for clues and trying to understand what they mean. And no matter how many datapoints are added they can't compete withg those delusions.

The PS3 is a sexy machine and extremely WAF friendly. I dare you to put any of the stand alone players together, the 360 with add on and a PS3 and ask women what they would rather have and see which one has the most positive reviews

okay.. now here's a very rough set of calculations to maybe help understand the 1.5 million shipped discs statement..

it involves taking amazon data now we can see stock levels. I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

now, let's use those 60 units as a ballpark average figure for each title, bearing in mind some will sell a lot more but the ones in the lowest rankings will sell very little in a 2 week period. There's about 150 titles.

now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will...

Scroll down to the bottom where the individual images of the titles are.

There you will see by each title the Amazon items in stock listing for each title.

Of course thats the automatically robot calculated level, and Amazon is famously known for its deistributed virtual stockage capability , direct from supplier fufillment shipping and Just in Time inventory practices, but at least its something else to consider. It might be useful considering that weve see a lot of Amazon out of stock issues for some titles.

."A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

...I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

...now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will...

Isn't Kong packed in with the 360 add-on drive? Not sure how that would affect the sales numbers tho.

Sony claimed they just pulled ahead, so I would expect this fridays NPD numbers to show a very small SI lead for BD.

NPD does not do SW, VS does, and the other place we get them from are roughly two weeks behind, like you I think it is last weeks results (hell Sony might even be getting daily updates, so it might not even be on a weekends numbers.