Insight

Aurora Ireland Renewables Add-On January 2019

Aurora’s Ireland Renewables Add-On January 2019, builds on its Ireland Single Electricity Market Forecast released in December 2018. This new report presents a deep dive into renewable energy generation in SEM and I-SEM, encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, capture price forecasts and investment case analyses. The report also contains an update of Aurora’s central forecast from the H2 I-SEM Forecast.

The analysis draws on Aurora’s internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the first detailed look at the renewables in I-SEM include:

In-depth analysis of existing renewables policies and their interaction with the new I-SEM market arrangements

Capture prices for onshore wind and offshore wind drop below baseload by 10% by 2030, while solar capture prices stay 2% higher than baseload by the same date

Imbalance costs for wind rise from €1 to €2/MWh as renewable penetration increases

Pairing with battery allows solar to double its wholesale market revenues to over €120/kW/year

Aurora’s Company performance report presents a summary of the operational and financial performance of all major participants in the GB wholesale power market. The key statistics include companies’ revenues and profits, outputs, capacities, capture prices and load factors. All the metrics are presented for the entire generating portfolios, their subsets for each technology, as well as for individual assets. The report also presents the evolution of companies’ market shares over time.

Aurora’s latest Distributed and Flexible Energy Scenarios Report for H1 2018 presents Aurora’s central outlook for distributed and flexible energy alongside a number of plausible alternative scenarios – each of which provides an internally consistent view on market developments, deployment, and investment cases. This update also includes the addition of a new ‘High Interconnector’ scenario.