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Studio Report Card: Paramount is No. 1, but Who Will Finish 2nd?

By:
Steve Mason
Jul 02, 2008

July 1 marks the halfway point of the movie year, and there is a clear winner among the major Hollywood studios. With the top 3 grossing movies of 2008, Paramount is riding high with both Marvel’s Iron Man and Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull topping $300M and DreamWorks’ Kung Fu Panda at $181M now and a cinch for $200M+. The Melrose gang will be the first studio in history with back-to-back-to-back $200M+ grossing movies.
With an estimated $1.054 billion in domestic box office, it will be impossible for anyone to catch Paramount in the market share race for 2008, especially when the studio has 2 sure bets for $100M+ due in the next 6 months. First comes the much buzzed-about DreamWorks comedy Tropic Thunder in August, featuring another standout Robert Downey Jr. performance and a scene-stealing turn by Tom Cruise. Then comes Madagascar 2, also from DreamWorks, in November, which I am hearing very positive reports about.
Paramount is likely to exceed the $1.49 billion in domestic box office it generated last year, and they have an outside shot at surpassing the all-time record $1.71 billion generated by Sony in 2006. To do it, the studio would need Madagascar 2 to be huge and to get help from DreamWorks’ DJ Caruso/Shia LaBeouf re-teaming for Eagle Eye in September, David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button in December and perhaps Joe Wright’s follow-up to Atonement, The Soloist, starring Robert Downey Jr. (again), Jamie Foxx and Catherine Keener, which is expected sometime this fall with plenty of Oscar buzz.
The battle is on for the year’s #2 spot, which Fox now holds with almost $650M domestic. Horton Hears a Who ($154M domestic) has led the way for Fox, and the rest of the studio’s year has been comprised of good solid hits like 27 Dresses, starring Katherine Heigl ($76.8M), Doug Liman’s Jumper ($80.15M) and the Ashton Kutcher-Cameron Diaz vehicle What Happens in Vegas ($79M). The always smartly run Fox even managed to wring about $60M out of M. Night Shyamalan’s The Happening so far.
Meet Dave, starring Eddie Murphy, is Fox’s next release with director Brian Robbins trying to recapture the box office glory of Norbit ($95.6M domestic). If Murphy scores, Fox will have a leg-up on the competition for the year-end 2nd-best market share, although they follow with the animated Space Chimps on July 18 and the long-awaited X-Files sequel on July 25, both of which are viewed as less-than-sure things. The studio’s late year breakout hit candidates include Bill Murray and Tim Robbins in the futuristic City of Ember in October, Baz Luhrman’s highly anticipated Australia at Thanksgiving, a remake of 1951’s The Day the Earth Stood Still (featuring Keanu Reeves as Klaatu) in December and Marley &amp; Me, based on John Grogan’s bestselling memoir and starring Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson, at Christmas.
The surest blockbuster in the second half of 2008 is, without question, The Dark Knight. With $200M all-but-assured for the Christopher Nolan sequel and Get Smart a safe bet to exceed $100M, Warner Bros will have three $100M grossing films (Sex and the City is the 3rd) and one near-miss with Roland Emmerich’s 10,000 B.C., which topped out at $95M domestic. The studio is currently #3 in market share with an estimated $505M in U.S. theaters.
When you consider that Warner Bros still has Star Wars: The Clone Wars due in August, the re-teaming of Diane Lane and Richard Gere in Nights in Rodanthe in September, Ridley Scott’s House of Lies, based on the excellent David Ignatius CIA thriller Body of Lies and starring Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio, in October, and the next Harry Potter installment set for Thanksgiving, Warner Bros is probably the betting favorite to be 2008’s #2 studio.
With $472M banked so far in 2008, you cannot count Sony out of the battle for 2nd place. Although Hancock will be the studio’s first $100M+ hit of 2008, it certainly will not be their last. The year has featured 3 good, solid box office successes with You Don't Mess with the Zohan ($91.67M so far), 21 ($81.15M) and Vantage Point ($72.26M), and the Will Smith superhero film, which opened last night, is a can’t-miss.
Four major blockbusters loom for Sony starting with Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, on July 25, followed by Judd Apatow’s The Pineapple Express, which will compete with Tropic Thunder for the biggest late-summer hit. (James Franco, who plays a hilarious stoner, could be one of the breakout stars of the year.) The studio will finish the year with the newest James Bond film Quantum of Solace and Will Smith in the Oscar-friendly-but-still-commercial 7 Pounds.
Universal is currently #6 with $447M domestic, but the year is heating up for them. Although the Marvel-financed and -produced Incredible Hulk appears to have stalled out and will finish its domestic run with less than Ang Lee’s version 5 years ago, it still should reach about $130M. Wanted, starring Angelina Jolie and James McAvoy, is just beginning what should be a healthy run well above $100M. The studio follows next Friday with Hellboy II, a Guillermo Del Toro sequel to his wildly original 2004 movie Hellboy. The franchise-starter generated a domestic gross of only $59.62M, but the movie found new fans on DVD and cable and Del Toro had a few more dollars to play with this time. If Universal connects with Hellboy II, a streak of five $100M+ grossing films is not out of the question because both Mamma Mia! and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor are good bets to pass that magical threshold.
The end of the year for Universal features a few Oscar contenders, including Flash of Genius and Frost/Nixon, an important prestige film with both Oscar pedigree and some box office upside, Clint Eastwood’s Changeling, starring Angelina Jolie, and the animated Tale of Despereaux.
Disney's biggest 2008 hit to-date is The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian with an underwhelming $138M, but Wall-E, after a $60M+ opening weekend, is a game-changer with $250M domestic not out of the question. Disney has generated a total of $475M domestic so far, but its only remaining titles that show blockbuster potential are High School Musical 3 in October, the animated Bolt in November and Adam Sandler's Christmas comedy Bedtime Stories. Because of its strictly limited number of releases, Disney is unlikely to compete for the #2 market share in '08.
Among the 5 studios above, I consider Warner Bros to be the favorite to finish the year with the 2nd-best market share with odds of 5/2. Sony is the next best bet at 7/2 followed by Fox at 6/1, Universal a live underdog at 8/1 and Disney 15/1.

Britney Spears almost burst into tears on Friday upon her arrival at Los Angeles International Airport after a clash between her bodyguard and a photographer turned ugly.
The pop star arrived back in California following her brief trip home to Louisiana on Friday, and was greeted at LAX Airport by a huge crowd of paparazzi.
More than 30 photographers swarmed around her vehicle as she attempted to make her getaway outside the arrivals terminal.
But the media scrum soon turned aggressive and her bodyguard was forced to step in to keep the photographers at bay, as a clearly upset Spears kept her head down.
However, a fight nearly broke out when the heavyset guard pushed a camera into a snapper's face, according to Airport Police Sergeant Jim Holcomb.
The photographer escaped unscathed, and has chosen not to file charges against Spears' employee.
Spears, who had been in Louisiana for the birth of her teenage sister Jamie Lynn's daughter on Thursday, eventually managed to leave the airport safely.
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

Sopranos actor Robert Iler owns an apartment in a New York block that was struck by a crane that fell and killed two construction workers on Friday.
Iler--who played A.J. Soprano on the hit series--was at home in the Upper East Side building when the tumbling 200-foot tower crane struck.
The crane was working on a new 32-story-apartment block when it collapsed and destroyed many apartments in Iler's neighboring building.
According to TMZ.com, the 23-year-old actor--who had lived on the block for several years--felt the impact and heard people screaming, although his home was not affected.
Two men were killed and number of others hospitalized by the incident, the second crane collapse in New York in just two months.
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

Everyone in Hollywood is asking an intriguing question this week: “How high can Sex and the City go?” After all, the average red-blooded American male will have to be dragged into the theater to see Carrie Bradshaw and friends (although, gay men will likely be among the movie’s early attenders). According to industry tracking relayed to me, an astounding number of American women have a weekend appointment to see these four 40+ actresses in their first big-screen adventure.
The summer blockbuster season has traditionally been devoted to major “tentpole” movies, featuring superheroes, explosions and animated animals, but that may be changing. Fox scored big with The Devil Wears Prada in 2006, proving that there is room at the multiplex for a film with pure female appeal. Prada opened to a $27.5M weekend on its way to a $124.75M domestic cume. Then last summer, New Line grabbed an almost identical $27.47M with the opening weekend of the female-skewing Hairspray, translating to $118.87M domestic.
With all of that said, it is amazing that a movie, featuring four actresses in their 40s, is considered a big summer title, but thanks to HBO, it is happening. Increasingly, the best roles for women 40+ are on television. Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer), Glenn Close (Damages), Holly Hunter (Saving Grace), Edie Falco (The Sopranos), Vanessa Williams (Ugly Betty) and Sally Field (Brothers &amp; Sisters) have all found meaningful work on the small screen, and perhaps Sex and the City is an interesting trial balloon for mature actresses to demonstrate their box office clout.
Three movies with female leads have been notable successes in 2008. 27 Dresses (Fox), starring Katherine Heigl from Grey's Anatomy, debuted to $23M in January on its way to a domestic cume of $76.8M. Then came the Digital 3D phenomenon Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds (Disney), which enjoyed a meteoric $31.1M opening weekend, finishing with a tween-fueled $65.2M. Also the all-girl comedy Baby Mama (Universal) succeeded last month with a nifty $17.4M opening, and it is still in the top 10 with a current cume of $53.3M.
Finding box office hits with women 40+ as the undisputed star (or at least co-lead) are much more rare. This year, the beautiful 40-something Diane Lane headlined Sony’s Untraceable, which managed only $28.6M, and 60-year-old Diane Keaton was one of three leads in Overture’s Mad Money, a disappointment totaling just over $20M. Whether it is sexism, ageism, or some combination of the two, mature women are not given many opportunities to succeed as above-the-title stars at the movies.
Glenn Close, who recently won the Golden Globe for her work on F/X’s Damages, has what appears to be the biggest opening ever for a 40+ actress with the 1996 version of 101 Dalmations, which grabbed $33.5M in its opening frame and went on to generate $136.2M domestic. Also, when she was exactly 40, she succeeded as another anti-hero, Alex Forrest, in Fatal Attraction, a $150M+ blockbuster. The aforementioned Streep, who earned an Oscar nomination for her riff on Anna Wintour in The Devil Wears Prada has the second-best opening with a 40+ female lead.
Jamie Lee Curtis in Freaky Friday, Shirley MacLaine in Terms of Endearment and Katharine Hepburn in On Golden Pond also scored $100M hits past the age of 40. Additionally, Diane Keaton has proved to be a bankable star in her prime with Something's Gotta Give ($16M opening - $124.7M cume) and First Wives Club ($105.4M cume), which starred fellow 40+’s Goldie Hawn and Bette Midler.
Now along come Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kim Cattrall and Kristin Davis, all somewhere north of 40, and they are a regular Fantastic Four (sans superpowers). Harry Medved from Fandango, reports that hundreds of showtimes for Sex and the City are already sold out across America, including a fair number of 12:01a shows tonight. 10,000 moviegoers have been surveyed on the Fandango showtimes and tickets page, and Harry says that 67 percent plan to attend the movie this weekend with a group of female friends, 88 percent plan to attend a Sex and the City get-together either before or after the show and 68 percent plan to drink Cosmopolitans at their respective parties.
The latest industry tracking indicates a spectacular opening as well. Un-Aided Awareness among women is at 17 percent, and Sex and the City has 99 percent Awareness with Females 25 Plus. The movie is tracking slightly better with Females 25 Plus with Definite Interest at 49 percent compared to 35 percent with Females Under 25. In the all-important First Choice column, Sex and the City is reportedly at 24 percent with Total Females and 30 percent with Females 25 Plus. How many men will wander into the multiplex to check out the these NYC girls this weekend? First Choice among Males for Sex and the City is at only 3 percent.
On Tuesday, I forecasted a $30M opening for this former New Line property, but I am raising my estimate to the $33M-$36M range. Truthfully, anything over $30M is a triumph as Females 25 Plus are not notorious opening weekend attenders, but this has the feel of a phenomenon instead of just a movie. And, by Monday morning, Sarah Jessica Parker and friends will likely have the biggest opening ever for 40+ women at the top of the box office marquee.
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) should hold up well on its 2nd weekend with a 3-day of $49M-$52M or so. The Steven Spielberg-directed sequel is helped by the fact that both of the new wide releases this week are rated R. That will also help Iron Man near or possibly even surpass $275M domestic with $10M-$13M. Narnia 2 (Disney) continues to struggle with unimpressive weekday holds, and I think Iron Man has a real chance to post a better weekend gross (although Prince Caspian will be in that same $10M-$13M range).
The other new wide release is The Strangers (Rogue), which has picked up steam thanks to an excellent, though disturbing, TV ad campaign. My sources tell me that the movie has Un-Aided Awareness of 7 percent, but just a 53 percent Total Aware. With a 10 percent First Choice, the slasher pic has a shot at $10M and a 5th-place finish.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 30
1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount): $50M
2. Sex and the City (Warner Bros): $35M
3. Iron Man (Paramount): $12.5M
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney): $11.75M
5. The Strangers (Rogue): $10M
6. What Happens in Vegas (Fox): $6.1M
7. Speed Racer (Warner Bros): $2.1M
8. Baby Mama (Universal): $1.9M
9. Made of Honor (Sony): $1.8M
10. The Visitor (Overture): $800,000

Tom Cruise's second Oprah TV special turned into a tribute show on Monday, when the movie star's famous friends honored the actor in video messages.
Cruise invited Oprah Winfrey to his Telluride, Colorado, home for a show that aired on Friday, and the actor returned to the TV talk-show host's Chicago studio for a chat that aired on Monday.
Surrounded by movie billboards advertising the blockbusters from his 25-plus years as a film star, Cruise was feted by costars and Hollywood pals like Dustin Hoffman, Will Smith and Renee Zellweger as he celebrated his career.
Smith revealed, "There's not a single piece of press... a single image in the 25 years of his career that gets anywhere near capturing who he is."
And his Collateral co-stars Jada Pinkett Smith and Jamie Foxx also offered tributes.
Pinkett Smith cooed, "Nothing that he's done professionally holds a candle to who he is as a human being."
Cruise's Jerry Maguire co-star Zellweger recalled her famous film line 'You had me at hello' for her tribute: "I didn't need to conjure motivation to say that line... He's just kinda special."
There was even a video nod from Cruise's new pal, Victoria Beckham, who revealed she and husband David went to see Jerry Maguire on their first date.
She recalled, "When we got to know Tom, we told him the story... and he sent us the jacket that he wore in one of the scenes, and he signed it."
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

The restraining order issued against Britney Spears' self-proclaimed manager Sam Lutfi alleges he drugged the pop star.
The singer's parents were granted the order against Lutfi last Friday during an emergency court hearing in Los Angeles.
And the paperwork offers a damning portrait of Lutfi.
The six-page declaration, filed by Lynne and Jamie Spears at the end of last month claims Britney's worried mom and a friend arrived at the singer's home for an intervention and were treated to a shouting match between their daughter and Lutfi.
The declaration reads, "Sam had told Britney that she was an unfit mother, a piece of trash and a whore, that she cares more about Adnan, her current boyfriend, than she cares about her kids, and that she does not deserve the kids."
Lynne Spears also claims Lutfi revealed he was giving her daughter drugs.
She states, "Sam told (friend) Jackie and me that he grinds up Britney's pills, which were on the counter and included (sleeping medication) Risperdol (sic) and Seroquel.
"He told us that he puts them in her food and that was the reason she had been quiet for the last three days.
"She had been sleeping. He told us that the doctor who is treating her now is trying to get her into a sleep-induced coma so that they could give her drugs to heal her brain."
Lynne Spears claims Lutfi then turned on her, raging, "I'm the one who spends 24/7 with your daughter. I sleep in cars outside her house so she can't leave."
He then allegedly told Spears' mom, "You people throw everyone under the bus. If you don't listen to me I'm going to make your name s**t in the papers."
Under the terms of the restraining order, Lutfi must stay 250 yards away from Spears, her parents and siblings.
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

Britney Spears' fortune came to the forefront in court on Monday as part of her ongoing legal battles for custody of her kids and control of her finances.
With the pop star committed to a psychiatric hospital, her new attorney Adam Streisand represented her in court and was asked to reveal details of the singer's worth.
This comes after her father, Jamie, was given control of his troubled daughter's financial and legal affairs in an emergency hearing on Friday.
Streisand, who is Barbra Streisand's second cousin, asked the court commissioner to reconsider Jamie Spears' new role as conservator of his client's estate.
According to TMZ.com, Streisand asked for Spears' business manager, Howard Grossman, to be named conservator.
In his argument, the attorney told the court his client's estate is worth $40 million, and he revealed she is currently in the middle of a $17 million tax audit.
Streisand lost his bid to overturn the conservatorship ruling after the judge declined to change Friday's order. The matter will be revisited at a hearing on
Feb. 14.
Meanwhile, the court also imposed a ban on Spears engaging in any form of communication with her self-proclaimed manager, Sam Lutfi.
Monday was a big day in court for Spears--even though she wasn't physically there.
Another lawyer, Anne Kiley, was in court for the latest hearing into Spears' child custody battle with ex-husband Kevin Federline and his attorney Mark Vincent Kaplan.
That hearing was quickly rescheduled for Feb. 19.
Outside the court, a frustrated Kaplan, Federline's lawyer, said, "It's a very fluid landscape that's changing day by day."
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

Lawyers for troubled singer Britney Spears are heading to court to fight an order that has given her father control of her estate, according to reports.
The star is currently being held at a Los Angeles hospital for psychiatric treatment and on Friday a judge granted her father, Jamie, and lawyer Andrew Wallet, temporary conservatorship--meaning they are in complete control of Spears' medical, financial and legal affairs. Jamie even has the right to restrict people from visiting the 26-year-old.
But a further court hearing is scheduled for Monday and according to reports from Web sites People.com and TMZ.com, Spears' attorneys are expected to object to the amount of control that has been handed to her father.
Meanwhile, a planned hearing in the singer's ongoing custody battle for her two sons is expected to go ahead without her on Monday.
Spears was admitted to UCLA Medical Center on Thursday morning and placed on a psychiatric hold which could last anywhere from 72 hours up to two weeks.
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

Britney Spears' father, Jamie, has won control of his troubled daughter's financial and legal affairs, after he was granted temporary conservatorship in a Los Angeles court on Friday afternoon.
Jamie and his ex-wife Lynne called an emergency hearing after the pop star was committed to the hospital for a 72-hour psychiatric evaluation on Thursday morning.
And Superior Court judge Reva Goetz agreed to hand over control of the troubled star's affairs, telling Jamie and Lynne she felt it would be in the singer's "best interest."
As a result of the ruling, Spears' father now has the power to restrict visitors to his daughter.
Judge Goetz also allowed Britney's parents to secure the singer's Hollywood Hills home, changing locks and vacating any persons living there as they saw fit.
The former couple was also granted the power to "prosecute any civil harassment restraining orders." It is understood that this refers to Britney's confidant and self-proclaimed manager Sam Lutfi, who has been involved in a war of words with Jamie and Lynne Spears since the pop star was admitted to the hospital upon a psychiatrist's intervention.
Angry Lutfi refused to appear in court, raging, "I object to this. Britney is fully capable of handling her own finances. Her doctors are capable of handling her healthcare.
"You'd think in a time like this, the family would be at the hospital taking care of their daughter, rather than fighting for her money. How sad."
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.

Britney Spears' longtime companion/manager Sam Lutfi has given up trying to work through the troubled star's problems with her parents Jamie and Lynne Spears--because he has "no more respect for the family."
Spears' estranged parents and Lutfi were reported to have joined forces to have the singer admitted to Los Angeles' UCLA Medical Center on Thursday morning, where she was placed on 72-hour psychiatric hold.
But Lutfi is now claiming Britney's parents are more concerned with money and their image than their daughter's wellbeing, branding them "incapable of telling the truth and incapable of sympathizing."
In an exclusive interview with E! News--which will air on Friday night--he insists he has "a moral obligation" to protect the 26-year-old like he would with any of his three sisters.
He also maintains he has never been paid by Spears and "never accepted money from the media" for tip-offs about the star's whereabouts.
And Lutfi explains his constant presence beside the singer is due to her desperate requests: "You meet her and she cries, and she begs (you) not to turn on her."
COPYRIGHT 2008 WORLD ENTERTAINMENT NEWS NETWORK LTD. All Global Rights Reserved.