"Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."

"Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."

"There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."

"For Years, the Investment Industry Has Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey. They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."

"There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."

"There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."

"I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."

"Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."

"Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."

"The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."

"You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."

“What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”

"You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."

"Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."

"There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."

"Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."

"I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”

"Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."

"Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."

"I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."

"The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."

"I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."

"As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."

"This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."

"The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."

"It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."

"Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."

"A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."

"How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."

"The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."

"It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."

"If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."

"New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."

"I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."

"It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"

"Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."

"The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."

"There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."

"A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."

"I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."

"I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."

"It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."

"Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."

"I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."

"Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."

"Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."

"Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"

"Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."

"If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."

"Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."

"The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."

"I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."

"I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."

"I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."

"Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."

"Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"

"I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!

"Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."

"I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."

"I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."

"Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."

"As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."

"Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."

"I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"

"You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

"Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."

"I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."

"I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."

"Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

“The Buy-and-Holders Are Afraid of Being Held Liable for the Financial Damages They Have Caused to So Many Millions. Their Fears Make Them All the Less Willing to Admit Mistakes. So the Damages Keep Piling Up Higher and Higher.”

It seems that you want to offer up unlikely scenarios with each answer that does not fit your story.

If you had told me that the cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies would continue for 11 years on the morning of May 13, 2002, when I put forward my first post, I would have said that the odds against such a thing happening were 1 billion to one.

So, yes, I guess it is fair to refer to what has happened here as “unlikely.”

Still, it happened, Questions.

It doesn’t help for us to let that paralyze us. We need to try to UNDERSTAND the factors that caused this unlikely turn of events.

Part of it is the money. There is a ton of money to be made in their field and people don’t want to give that up. So they rationalize that getting retirement numbers wildly wrong isn’t such a terrible thing.

Part of it is our litigious society. The Buy-and-Holders are afraid of being held liable for the financial damages they have caused to so many millions. Unfortunately, their fears make them all the less willing to admit mistakes. So the damages keep piling up higher and higher and higher. Perhaps we should seek congressional action to give those who truly just made mistakes some sort of amnesty from civil lawsuits. At least that would be constructive action.

Part of it is that the people drawn to this field tend to be good with numbers but don’t feel comfortable examining the effects of emotions. Well, let’s recruit new people to the field, people who have the skills needed to get the job done.

Part of it is that the advance we have achieved is so huge that it makes the Buy-and-Holder feel envious that they didn’t come up with it. Let’s praise the Buy-and-Holders for their many genuine achievements and invite them to help us come up with more powerful insights, many of which they can get their name on.

The are indeed unlikely events that have taken place, Questions.

That’s no excuse for not behaving in an ethical manner. We MUST behave in an ethical manner. And we must insist that our Buy-and-Hold friends do so as well.

Behaving ethically is the starting point. Without some minimal level of ethics in this field, all of the I.Q. points in the world count for precisely zero. We need to be smart. But we must also be honest.

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
I would also say that Jack, Larry, Bill and Rick would speak out as well.
Jack Bogle and Larry Swedroe and Bill Bernstein and Rick Ferri certainly all have goodness in them and all four of these individuals certainly have shown on numerous occasions that they would like to come clean.
Jack Bogle said in his book that Reversion to the Mean is an “Iron Law” of stock investing. That’s…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
There really is no value in this site. All you do is sit around telling us about your hate for buy and hold and for those that don’t agree with you (that you describe as goons).
It’s not possible that I sit around talking about my hate for Buy-and-Hold or for my many Buy-and-Hold friends, Anonymous. It’s not possible because I do not FEEL hate for Buy-and-Hold or for my Buy-and-Hold…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Community resource? Yet another misinformed comment.
I think you are wrong, Anonymous.
There are millions of people who invest in the U.S. market. Those people consider price when buying every other good and service they purchase in their daily lives. The Buy-and-Holders told them that there is some magical blue pixie dust that applies in the investing realm that turns all the usual rules…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
“Prosecutors respond to the pressures placed on them.”
If death threats were made, why would there need to be pressure. Either it happened or it didn’t.
It’s common for death threats advanced on the internet not to be prosecuted, Anonymous. As you well know.
What is different about this case is that the death threats were employed as part of a 12-year cover-up of errors made in a…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
No one is stopping you from selling your lucky VII scheme. Go short the market. Go start up a fund using your strategy. Do whatever you want. You can do whatever you want. Meanwhile, the rest of us will do what we want.
We are all big boys. We can make our own decisions and don’t need you telling us what to do. Advice can be be taken or rejected. What you want to do is shut down other people…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
Not considering a variable in a study is not fraud and doesn’t require an immediate or any update.
If I publish a study showing a link between smoking and cancer but fail to account for family history it may be a less than perfect study but I am in no way required to amend that study.
You are welcome to post your own finding and highlight how the current study is insufficient.…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Do you talk to your wife about the future Congressional hearings, civil and criminal trials, and jail sentences for the Goons? If so, what does she say about all of this?
She certainly knows about the Goon phenomenon in a general sense. Rarely do we discuss specifics. She knows that the police came to our house when I called them about the death threats. That gives her the general idea that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site.
What did the recent Bogleheads posts on P/E 10s linked here not say? What exactly is the “peer-reviewed research” information Bogleheads won’t allow there?
For starters:
1) The errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies were not discovered when the Wall Street Journal wrote about them but 10 years earlier when a post reporting on those errors was posted to Motley…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Do you think you might want to maybe ask…. oh, I don’t know, maybe THE NEW YORK TIMES about that?
I’ve contacted reporters for the New York Times as well as reporters for many other fine publications, Anonymous. A few years back, I was posting the contents of my e-mails to reporters as blog entries here. I bet that, if you did some searching, you could find at least one that went to a…

Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
It is far more likely that he [Bogle] does not respond to aggressive and unhinged letters.
An e-mail that points out that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies do not contain a valuations adjustment and that there is 35 years of peer-reviewed research showing that a valuations adjustment is required is not aggressive and unhinged, Laugh. An e-mail like that demands a…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to a thread at the www.SiteSell.com forum:
Super post, Rob...
http://forums.sitesell.com/viewtopic.php?p=1284835#1284835
You obviously know your stuff. Your paper about Shiller's paper is spot-on. It's an excellent indicator and folks SHOULD be worried about the high CAPE of the current market.
I don't think that paper was trying to deliver an optimized approach, merely prove the value of CAPE as a predictor of value,…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Did you even bother to read the article? With your drastically reduced activity, it seems like you’d have plenty of time to keep up on your reading. Anyway, your old buddy Wade states quite emphatically that 4% is not safe. What more of a “correction” do you require?
Wade said that the Old School studies were in error YEARS AGO, X. He wrote to the authors of the Trinity study asking…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
For each to do the same thing, yes, it would require a mass conspiracy. What are the odds that each would act in similiar fashion on their own accord. The odds of that happening are astronomical.
There obviously is no mass conspiracy. That is obviously a 100 percent silly idea.
But you are wrong when you say that the odds are against large numbers of people acting in a similar manner. When…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
we can clearly look at the Internet and see that all those opinions are out there, including yours.
I am not aware of a single case in which the advocates of any other investing strategy behaved in the manner in which I have seen Buy-and-Holders behave for 11 years now. Never have I seen a non-Buy-and-Holder make use of death threats or board bannings or tens of thousands of acts of defamation…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the blog at this site:
We are all responsible for our own financial decisions.
There are millions of people who were in the process of planning retirements during the years 2002 through 2013. We “knew” as a society at that time that the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies got the numbers wildly wrong. Yet the millions of people who were planning retirements did not “know” this. Why? Because the Buy-and-Hold Mafia…

Set forth below are the words of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
Today, we see yet another example that you are living in a fantasy world when we see you make the following comment, Rob:
"I obviously would have earned far more than $500 million had you Goons not engaged in insanely abusive and criminal behavior and if big-name “experts” like Jack Bogle had not failed to act when informed of your behavior. I have…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
“If stocks have worms in them, the Wall Street Con Men threaten to destroy the careers of all who dare to post honestly.”
Challenge: Post an actual real world documented example of this ever occurring, OTHER than something involving yourself.
That’s the entire site, Anonymous.
I used to believe in the Buy-and-Hold garbage. I know how it feels to be tricked re this stuff.
Wade…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
Scan back the last two years on your boards. Nothing about savings. Scan this site. Ditto. You continue to classify buy and hold as the biggest cause of failed retirements (a lie).
Also, to set the record straight, it was not you that made the motley fool board successful. Saw the old history on that claim and where you were set straight. The prison crap…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
So Rob is there any chance you are going to take his advice and start behaving and communicating like an adult? It seems he is about the 100th person to tell you that you need to modulate your behavior.
You are correct that many people have offered me similar advice, Trebor.
No, there is zero chance that I am going to change the tone I use.
Please read carefully what Robert says. He…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Jacob ran your column for years, but now he’s too scared. Obviously something changed. You seem to be trying hard not to mention Sammy Soda.
Sammy’s abusiveness and my responses to it obviously are what brought about the change. I certainly don’t say different.
Some of Sammy’s comments were just obvious garbage. My standard response to those was to say: “My best and warmest…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a blog entry at this site:
Isn’t that what you are trying to do here? How’s that working out for you?
It’s certainly what I am trying to do, Pink.
I have not succeeded in building the community I want to see in place as of this moment in time.
Thanks to you Goons! And your pals in The Buy-and-Hold Mafia!
The investing advice that “works” for those giving investing advice is the opposite of the investing…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Why do you focus so much on the “Buy and Hold Mafia” here at your own blog? It seems you choose to post about the “goons” pretty much every day rather than using your own blog to post about your own theories.
I focus on the Buy-and-Hold Mafia and our failure as a society to shut it down because that story is the biggest political and economic story of any of our lifetimes,…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Thanks for asking an intelligent question, Z.
You are right that the money is real for practical purposes in the short term.
This is an important fact. This is probably the single most important reason why so many smart and good people are taken in by Buy-and-Hold. It creates temporary wealth that is treated as real by banks and airlines and other institutions.
It never lasts. We have…

Reuters Blogger Felix Salmon has written an article applauding the retirement planning approach developed by Wade Pfau and described by him in the blog entry posted here a little over a week ago titled Wade Pfau: This Paper...Suggests that the Traditional Approach to Retirement Planning is Counterproductive and Possibly Damaging."
Juicy Excerpt #1: Pfau’s insight is that thanks to mean reversion, the number you need at the end of a bear market is actually lower than the number you need at…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
What could a non-goon possibly discuss on this site? Unless they agreed with you 100% and just regurgitated your nonsense you would label them a goon. This site certainly doesn’t need anymore long winded ramblings from “non-goons” you fill that niche more than enough.
Here are some possible topics:
1) Why does Jack Bogle say that there is never a need for an investor to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
What you have described as a fantasy has built me a nice net worth
The net worth you refer to is not real. A portion of it is. But a good part of it is cotton-candy nothingness that will be blown into the wind when the next price crash arrives. What good does it do you?
You would like me more if I told you that your net worth is all real. That’s obvious. But would that be a kind thing for…

Frugal Dad asks that provocative question in his blog entry for yesterday.
There are lots of people asking that question today. More will be asking it in days to come unless some responsible people step forward to rebuild confidence in the markets by explaining why it is that we have in recent years suffered the greatest loss of middle-class wealth in U.S. history.
My comment is Comment #16.
Juicy Excerpt: We MUST get the word out re this. If people pull their money out of stocks…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
who exactly is in the buy and hold mafia and how did they get so much power? do you have any real names of people who wield this type of influence over the universe?
Jack Bogle.
Bill Bernstein.
Larry Swedroe.
Scott Burns.
The owners of the Motley Fool site.
The owners of the Index Universe site.
The owners of the Morningstar.com site.
The owners of the Bogleheads.com…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a blog entry at this site:
If the various acts of fraud have occured, as you allege, why have prosecutors failed to bring charges?
Why were charges not brought against Bernie Madoff for so many years?
His fraud was no secret. There was an accountant who had looked at the numbers and sent a letter to the SEC letting them know that the fund was a fraudulent enterprise. Why did the SEC not act?
Bernie was popular,…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted to the Goon Central board:
ban on honest posting?
How is that being communicated and enforced?
by whom?
To what ends?
>
How is that being communicated and enforced?
>
It is communicated every time someone is banned for honest posting or suffers some other detriment for telling the truth about stock investing.
Have you ever known anyone banned for getting the SWR wrong, Drip…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
You say there’s a mafia intimidating thousands of people. This can’t be ignorance. It has to be people doing something somewhere.
It’s mostly ignorance. There are people doing things to perpetuate the ignorance, that much is fair to say. But ignorance is the driver here. The people who are engaging in corrupt and fraudulent acts do not appreciate the full extent of the harm they are…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“That’s not a decision that I made lightly. In Chapter 12 of my book (Passion Saving: The Path to Plentiful Free Time and Soul-Satisfying Work), I examine the possibility that worse could come to worse and that I would not be able to provide for my family. I say that, in those unlikely circumstances, one has to conclude that that was what was meant (by God or by…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a discussion of a blog entry at this site:
Your comments about “the court of law” and the comment on ” civil and criminal law” could be considered defamatory and threatening. You should think before making accusations like that to anyone.
I’ve taken on The Buy-and-Hold Mafia, Sparky. I’ve been hearing threats every day for 11 years running now.
My good friend Jack Bogle has all the money and influence and power…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
How many people are going to prison. Who will be paying you the 500 million?
I’ll offer you my impressions, Anonymous. That’s the best that I can do given the unique circumstances that apply. We have never as a nation been in a situation like this before. These are entirely uncharted waters.
There are millions of good and smart and hard-working people who believe that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
OMG.
You REALLY believe aaaallll those people paid for an education, studied hard, and went out and got jobs…because they just want to be liked??? You don’t have to be anything more than a two-bit pot dealer to be liked.
I’m betting ‘money’ ranks far, far above ‘will you be my friend?’ on their list of drivers.
And speaking of being honest and honest posting…whatever…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
"But the buyers and sellers do not have access to commentary on the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research. They do not have access to the information they need to act in their self-interest."
Are you suggesting the Wall Street institutions that set stock prices don’t have access to the same information as you?
Yes.
Wade Pfau hold a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton. I have never…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Taking 30-35 years to build a retirement nest egg is hardly “get rich quick”.
I appreciate what you are saying and to a large extent I agree with what you are saying. The Buy-and-Holders relentlessly stress the need to focus on the long-term. They are 100 percent sincere about this and they have had a positive influence in this area. The percentage of investors…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
If the US economy grows at 3% and the stock market returns 6.5% real (which is even higher in nominal terms), how do you explain this 3.5%+ gap?
Most people understand that this gap is the equity risk premium and is compensation for the increased risk of owning equities. If that risk goes away because everything is ‘perfectly valued’ as in your utopia, why would stocks maintain any kind of…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
“The issue here is not what I know but what Bogle knows and what Bernstein knows and what Burns knows and what Pfau knows. They all know LOTS of stuff that they are not telling us. And that’s a crime in the United States. It’s financial fraud. It’s a felony. That means prison time.”
None of those guys owes you jack squat. Not only are they not required to tell you anything they…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the SiteSell.com discussion forum:
Rob, I have much respect for your work and you have a lot of valuable knowledge to share, but I would not bet that human nature will change and people will stop making decisions based on greed and fear.
The words above are from a post by Dave put to the Passive thread. I thought it would be better to respond to them here.
Your comment gets right to the core of things, Dave. Investors…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
The non sequitur answer you give when you have no answer.
Try to stay on point, Rob. What gain is to be had by spending your time on political sites, Twitter, etc?
The investing advice field has become completely corrupt in the Buy-and-Hold Era, Anonymous. Lots of people know about Shiller’s research findings. Lots of people know that he was awarded the Nobel…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
“I think it would be fair to say that there is less personal integrity in the investing advice field today than there is in any other line of endeavor that could be named. ”
Fortune telling? Bank robbery? Child porn? Slave trading? Murder for hire? Embezzlement?
Fortune telling is not nearly as bad. Most people know to be skeptical of fortune tellers. Fortune telling is an innocent…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Most people understand that this gap is the equity risk premium and is compensation for the increased risk of owning equities.
Stocks pay higher returns that most other asset classes. We agree on that.
And it is true that the primary reason is that people PERCEIVE stocks as more risky. We agree on that.
We do NOT agree that stocks are significantly more risky. Stocks are more risky for…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
It couldn’t be ignorance based on your description above as it would have to have been purposeful.
I have never seen any evidence that the mistake made by the Buy-and-Holders was purposeful. The idea that it is not necessary to exercise price discipline when buying stocks is rooted in the peer-reviewed research showing that short-term timing doesn’t work. At…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I put to another blog entry at this site:
Stock markets have always been dominated by emotions in the short-term … makes them no different than any other market, of course. I’m having a hard time reconciling the notion that those short-term movements are driven by buy and hold investors. Isn’t a more likely explanation the fact that short-term volatility is caused by short-term investors who are jumping into and out of the market? If I buy…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
It seems that you want to offer up unlikely scenarios with each answer that does not fit your story.
If you had told me that the cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies would continue for 11 years on the morning of May 13, 2002, when I put forward my first post, I would have said that the odds against such a thing happening were 1 billion to one.
So, yes, I…

Set forth below is the text of a comment advanced by one of the Buy-and-Hold Goons to another blog entry at this site:
I post honestly or I post not. Non-negotiable.
You’ll post respectfully and sanely or you’ll post not. The (sane) community will enforce that. Non-negotiable.…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Why would Wall St make much less money on folks buying bonds then they do stocks?
I don’t think that Wall Street has anything against bonds, Laugh.
It’s the super-safe asset classes that Wall Street doesn’t like. They undersell TIPS, they undersell IBonds, they undersell CDs.
Even there, I don’t think the underselling is motivated primarily by financial considerations. I…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
If no one will state it, then what evidence do you have that indicates that will change in the future?
It’s common sense, Anonymous.
Look at what happened with the Bernie Madoff con. People who had looked at the numbers knew that Madoff was working a con long before he was exposed. People wanted to believe because we all carry a Get Rich Quick urge within us.…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
These cover up folks are doing a pretty lousy job, given that you’ve recently admitted that most people do consider valuations when making asset allocation decisions, and there really are no Buy and Hold purists. And the fact that Shiller recently won a Nobel prize.
I agree with you that the cover-up folks are doing a lousy job, Anonymous. That’s why I don’t like to use the word…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the Goon Central board:
do you have a parallel market that only you know about, where you can set the prices to whatever level Yes.The parallel market is the market that comes into existence on the day we open the internet to honestzzz posting on SWRs and many other critically important investment-related topics.
Buy-and-Hold is based on the research of University of Chicago Economics Professor Eugene Fama. He is the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
He [Scott Burns] says no such thing. What’s jumbled and confused is your basic reading comprehension. Here is what he said:
“Whether starting from current stock and bond yields or from more modest return expectations, the latest portfolio survival exercises show that withdrawal rates should be lowered to 3 to 3.5 percent.”
It couldn’t be any plainer. He says 4% is unsafe. You say 4%…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
There is PLENTY of good information out there. This site, however, doesn’t really offer anything other than someone that wants comic relief since all you talk about is how you hate buy and hold and you call people goons all day.
We disagree, Anonymous.
I believe that 90 percent of the information about stock investing available on the internet today is compromised by the desire of the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You must have the power since you are the one bringing up the topic.
No. That’s silly.
I am a journalist. Journalists tell stories. They don’t put people in prison.
Some stories involve prison sentences. In those cases, the journalists have to mention the prison sentences. But all they are doing is telling the story accurately and completely. That’s why…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Are your financial statements full of lies?
I don’t hold any stocks. So, no.
Stocks are different than other asset classes, Anonymous. Stocks are the only asset class that permits the owners of that asset class to vote themselves huge raises. You can’t do that with Certificates of Deposit. The owners of CDs carry the same Get Rich Quick urge within them that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board:
claiming it has ANYTHING to do with some goofball in Purcellville is grounds for instant disqualification, since 99.999999999% of investors, bankers, retirees, professors, etc have never heard of your crazy ass.
Rob Arnott doesn't hail from Purcellville, Drip Guy.
He told me in his e-mail to me that he has seen all the same intimidation tactics that I have seen. There were two young…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
The information has been out there for many years. People have had time to make considered opinions, Rob. The only one needing to make the “I was wrong” speech is you.
We certainly agree that the research we need to come to a better understanding of how stock investing works has been out there a long time, Deleted. It’s been 32 years!
The problem has not been a shortage of time to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the Goon Central site:
he'd spend about 80% of his waking hours wailing against Chocolate Cake, with a few mentions of the merits of cherry cake. but mostly against Chocolate.
I agree with you that this is a bad idea strategically, Dab.
I had a fellow come up to me at the Speed Networking Event at FinCon13 who said that he has checked out my blog on several occasions. He noted that he saw something about "a…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Boy Rob, you were having a couple of moments of clarity yesterday with talking about others view points. Alas this morning you fell back into full tilt hocomania. At least I think you did. Lord knows I’m not going to read beyond the first sentence. You need help, as I’m sure your family, neighbors, and everyone you interact with can see.
You Goons have a catch phrase that you use on me…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
If people REALLY saw value, they would pay you. I think you have been paid what you are worth. By the way, there are no charges, thus no felonies. Only your imagination. Your lack of success is of your own shortfalls. Stop trying to blame someone else for your problems.
I have had hundreds of people tell me that they perceive HUGE value in my work, Anonymous. The value of the work is not in…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
All the people you mentioned do post honestly and are free to post on boards of their choosing. You, on the other hand, can’t post on many of the boards due to your behavior. Those boards have a right to block you, just like you block posts on your board. I would also take issue with what you call “honest” posting.
We disagree as strongly as two people could possibly disagree,…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
After reading this blog I learned something new. The increase in someone’s portfolio at these crazy levels are not real. When the crash comes poof ! its all gone. That’s why in 2000 and 2008 all my friends were buying new cars and homes with their new windfall. What happened after the crashes they lost their houses, jobs, marriage.
Just being an average guy…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob, for your opinions need to be valid, all of these financial experts either need to be lying, part of a mass conspiracy or not smart enough to have figured things out……………or………….you are wrong.
It’s a combination of those, Anonymous.
We didn’t make a serious effort to figure things out until the mid-1960s. In earlier days, different people had different opinions…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
If I asked Mike Piper why he considered banning you, do you think he would tell me the truth?
“I do not.
Most likely he would mix partial truths with partial falsehoods.
I’ve seen a lot of that sort of thing over the past 14 years, both from Mike and from others.”
What bloggers would tell the truth about you?
On the day when this story is written…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
I thought you said Shiller’s research was published in 1981. So somehow almost 40 years later it hasn’t changed a thing other than give you an excuse to carry on a deranged internet-based campaign.
Your point is not a bad one but it is overstated. Shiller’s research has changed everything and nothing at the same time. What I say is that as a society we are…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
He says “timing” and that is what it means long term timing is still timing. It means ALL timing. Tell me where he says timing excludes long term timing. So, do we have an agreement? Are you ready to accept the consequences.
You are right that long-term timing is a form of timing, Anonymous.
That is why it is a Big Lie for the Buy-and-Holders to say that there is research…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Continues stalking of Wade Pfau who has distanced himself from only one person. Very telling, isnt it. When you send out thousands of emails on just one person, that is considered stalking. If someone kept emailing comments about your wife, how would you feel? Guess how Wade and his family feels.
There were numerous articles written about Lee Harvey Oswald when he killed President Kennedy.…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to a blog entry at this site:
If they have done what you have said and you can identify them, then why have charges and/ or lawsuits not been filed?
Why weren’t charges filed against people who hung blacks from trees in the days of segregation in the South, Mr. Rational?
People feel “you can’t fight City Hall.” People rationalize that “it’s not my fight.”
It’s everyone’s fight.
We all work in the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Maybe a better question is this: Which specific financial experts will NOT be going to prison in your opinion?
There’s a concept that is referred to in the law books as “industry practice” or “industry standard” or something like that. The idea is that one indicator of fraud is engaging in behavior outside the norm of the field in which you work.
That concept won’t do the job…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
if the Goons and hatred and conspiracies are the real story, why not talk about that during your 5 minutes of fame at FinCon?
People don’t want to hear it, Anonymous.
It makes people feel very uncomfortable to discuss that stuff.
The people who promote Buy-and-Hold are not bad people. They made a perfectly understandable mistake. Then they covered it up, thinking it probably…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Really, what do you think you’re accomplishing?
Buy-and-Hold was not always a horrible thing, Goon. It was once a truly wonderful thing. It got us halfway to where we need to be to change stock investing forever in a very, very, very positive way. Our economic future is bright indeed.
There is one problem. Had Robert Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research in 1971…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Once again, we look at patterns and we see that these very smart people have given and continue to give considerable thought and study to each issue. Basically, we look at people’s track record in order to assign credibility. The same measure is applied to everyone, including you.
You have not presented a case that is credible.
I disagree, Questions.
I put forward my famous post…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
How does that compute with your fantasy of me (and others) to go to prison for disagreeing with you?
It's of course 100 percent preposterous that anyone would go to prison for disagreeing with me Sammy. But death threats? Demands for unjustified board bannings? Tens of thousands of acts of defamation? Threats to get academic researchers fired from their…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
You also fail to address the fact it would require mass conspiracy as well as the disregard by all with respect to their individual levels of respect and credibility.
I don’t think it requires mass conspiracy, Questions.
It involves a huge advance in our understanding of how stock investing works, an advance so big that people cannot come to terms with it without first being permitted to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
You do that Rob. I can see how it feels better to live in a dream world where you’re about save civilization from itself rather than face the reality of being an aging, unemployed dude sitting forgotten in your basement surfing the net all day.
Your $500M payday is coming, Rob. It’s right around the corner! Keep checking that mailbox. Fingers crossed.
Every important advance in the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob aren’t you afraid of the buy and hold mafia ruining your career too? Oh wait thats right you are just an internet troll nevermind carry on….
One of my primary goals is to save the careers of as many of my Buy-and-Hold friends as possible, Anonymous. Just about all of them want to come clean. People forget that I learned about the errors in the Old School retirement studies from…

Set forth below are excerpts from the texts of two comments posted to another blog entry at this site by a Goon poster going by the name of "Laugh." The second comment was posted a little over an hour after the posting of the first comment.
Comment #1: Um, except the papers are all available publicly and have been read by thousands and tens of thousands of people without any barriers. There is no cover up. The information is freely available and well known (as well known as any Nobel prize…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Just amazing how so many people who are much more intelligent, more successful and far more wealthy are wrong and Rob is the only one right………because, of course, Rob can’t possibly be wrong.
I CAN be wrong, Anonymous.
Say that I am wrong. Would that make it acceptable for me to post dishonestly? It would not.
All of us can make mistakes. None of us can be required always to be…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
It’s amazing how many foul filthy liars are running discussion boards.
You said it, not me, Bizarro!
I am kidding around.
It IS amazing how many of our fellow human have rationalized bad behavior re this matter. If you had asked me on the morning of May 13, 2002, what the odds were that we would see transpire the events that we have seen transpire, I would have said “one in a…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
But how much of the paper did you actually write? Did you actually write any of it or do you claim to be the author of all material that talks about long term stock timing based on valuations or emotions?
Wade wrote all of the words that appear in the paper.
I don’t claim to be the author of all material that talks about long-term timing based on valuations/emotions.
Robert Shiller is…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
I could if I were willing to take the time to look it up, Evidence.
This happened before I posted there. Several community members made reference to Swedroe’s banning. It’s not hard to figure out what caused it. Swedroe talks about the importance of valuations all the time. During the time I was posting there, he never once posted in support of those of us who were saying that honest…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
Today, a poster at your board asks you to provide a link to support your statement that Wade's job was threatened. Here is your response:
Rob says
January 15, 2016 at 7:23 am
You were there, Anonymous. You don’t need a link.
I will provide a link to the members of your jury. Then they will decide on the length of your prison sentence. That’s how…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Everyone is corrupt, but you, right Rob?
I am the lead person saying that we should clean up the corruption, Pink.
There are thousands of our fellow community members who have expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted.
Numerous academics have told me that they would like to feel free to publish honest research.
Numerous practitioners have told me that they would like to feel…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at my site:
“We need to make a demonstration as a people that we will not tolerate the intimidation tactics of the Buy-and-Holders any longer. ”
Intimidation? Please. You’ve been afforded much more presumed credibility than any internet crank deserves, by having many people tolerate your crap and even respond to it as if it were a legitimate case of ignorance or misunderstanding or other solvable…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You have indicated that some Wall Street con men are going to pay you $500 million. There are hundreds of thousands that work for Wall Street banks. Which ones are going to pay you? How is that determined?
Anyone who wants to can chip in, you know? It’s not for me to say. They are smart people. Let them work it out among themselves.
You consistently seem to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
It is wonderful to see how principled Rob is.
It is equally sad to see how clueless Rob is.
That’s an odd comment, Laugh.
I naturally wish you all good…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that CanuckAnon recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Hi Rob,
A quick one as I’m tight on time today.
To further detail why I think the way I do, kind of comes down to two…abstract ideals, for lack of better terminology.
1) After the 2008 Crisis got me thinking that there has to be a better way to invest, I started doing a lot of financial research (on the internet, of course!). Didn’t matter the source, I read it; if it…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another post at this blog:
On what basis do you think there will be Congressional hearings over your disagreements with the Bogleheads? Other types of investors such as the Graham disciples have been able to espouse their views openly and without the sort of harassment that you allege.
NO ONE is speaking with 100 percent honesty on stock investing matters today, Goon. NO ONE.
I even apply that statement to myself. I TRY to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
But, now, how is it that “Wall Street Con Men” can supposedly get wealthy over Grandma Betty buying and holding a market basket of stocks, cash-equivalents, and a dollop of bonds for thirty or forty years, with perhaps some annual rebalancing thrown in?
Taylor Larimore, co-author of The Bogleheads Guide to Investing, had a line that he often used during the time I posted with him at the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
People (the middle-class) aren’t joining in because they have no money.
They also don’t really — and I mean REALLY — care.
They spend far more time watching teevee et al than paying attention to finance and economics.
Why would they? They have no wealth, thus it doesn’t concern them.
Remember, spenders, not investors/savers.
True, the financial crisis did effect…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Your constant references to ‘pain’, ‘love’, ‘wrath’, ‘prison’ ,’force’, etc. speak very much about your own psyche and inner landscape.
But, not so much about anything to do with financial planning.
Especially given that you are an self-admitted and publicly-evident innumerate.
Rob, I honestly (and I do mean honestly) believe that you are actually trying to fight…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the Joe Taxpayer blog:
There are those who swear by gold. I think it’s an ancient relic (only for the fact that Milton Freedman used those words, else, I’d just think it a pretty metal.) There are day traders. I think that’s a losing proposition. It goes on.
There are no Bans in effect on discussion of those other subjects, are there?
What is so different about the 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob, if you actually had evidence of financial fraud I’m sure you would have brought it to a court of law by now.
Why did Madoff get away with his fraudulent fund for so long, Sensible?
Do you think it was hard to see that it was fraudulent? It wasn’t. There was a CPA who did the numbers and showed with 100 percent certainty that the Madoff fund was fraudulent. He wrote to the SEC…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
According to you, they are all lying and only you are truthful.
They are all lying, Anonymous.
Nothing could be more clear. This is OBVIOUS.
Shiller’s book was a best-seller. It was reviewed in all the top publications. He was awarded a Nobel prize for the research reported on in the book. The Buy-and-Holders haven’t changed their investing advice ONE IOTA as a result of…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
You keep getting these questions because your history at these conventions is to be a wallflower. If you tell any of those bloggers that he or she is going to prison, they undoubtedly will mention it on their blog.
At the first financial bloggers convention that I attended (FinCon11), there must have been 15 different bloggers who came up to me and said some version of: “Oh, so YOU’RE…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
We are all so lucky to have you, Rob, as the sole honest person when it comes to investing as everyone else is lying and committing fraud.
Some are committing fraud.
Some are suffering from cognitive dissonance.
Some have never educated themselves re these issues.
Some have tried to educate themselves but to this day suffer from a genuine…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted recently to another blog entry at this site:
Most people do not obsess over things that horrify them. Especially things that have not happened and almost certainly never will happen. Goodness, what a tragic way to go through life.
That’s assuming of course that you aren’t simply saying “horrifying” when you mean “extremely appealing”. Either way it’s tragic, just for different reasons.
I find it horrifying, X.
I…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Hi Rob,
What would you do if you found someone operating a blog preaching an approach to investing with obvious flaws; who incorrectly confused correlation with causation; and who improperly believed that the past was bound to repeat itself?
Would you reach out to that person, try to engage them in a discusion of their beliefs in an attempt to illuminate them? Or would you just chalk it up…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Thousands of posts with many strongly differing opinions on the topic suggest they most certainly do. Assuming you behave like an adult and post respectfully. In fact, I could post your comments about 15% vs 1% expected return rates right now, and I would hardly be banned.
Of course, I’d post respectfully, not boorishly, being open to differing opinions on the matter, and realizing that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Let’s call a spade a spade, shall we? Wade Pfau stole your research and put his name on it, throwing you just a tiny crumb acknowledgement to ward off a lawsuit. And once he had the goods, he had the gall to terminate your relationship. He’s profiting handsomely by his theft, leading a charmed life, widely published, widely respected. While Rob Bennett continues to toil in total obscurity,…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
“…desperate characters… a lot of money… a lot of power… a lot of connections… people who don’t play nice… brutally abusive and ruthlessly vicious people. That’s the story.”
And yet you somehow think these tantalizing and ‘sexy’ factors would PREVENT a legitimate reporter* from wanting to grab this as perhaps an exclusive?
Sorry, Rob. That kind of grist for the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted to another blog entry at this site:
Who else is banned from the popular financial boards besides you?
Every single person alive on Planet Earth is banned from posting HONESTLY what the last 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research tells us about how stock investing works, Anonymous.
So long as I don’t post honestly, I am not banned. But once I post honestly — watch out! And it’s precisely the same with everyone…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
I doubt you have many friends who twist a difference in opinion about the future into the other side having been “mistaken”.
It’s not a difference of opinion, Anonymous.
If John Greaney was putting forward statements at the Motley Fool board that “It is my OPINION that a withdrawal rate of 4 percent will work for those beginning retirements today,” I never would have felt a…

Set forth below are the texts of two comments that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
You seem to have some bizarre view of the world where stock prices are divorced from economic performance or in fact, stock prices drive economic performance.
Stock prices have been driving economic performance for 140 years, Laugh.
There is 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing this to be so.
If you educated yourself on these matters, you wouldn’t find the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted about another blog entry at this site:
Rob
I am curious how you would respond to this article entitled “Forget the 4% Rule” in which Wade is interviewed. He doesn’t seem fearful and is speaking his mind. I realize you probably will delete this as it flies in the face of the elaborately constructed fantasy world in which you live
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/26/retirement/retirement-income.moneymag/
My hope is that you will…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
No one is telling you that you cannot express your views. However, it is wrong for you to expect that you can express them on other people's forums.
No, it isn’t.
Any forum owner who bans someone solely for posting honestly on the topic of the forum is committing an act of financial fraud. That person thereby makes himself responsible for all losses suffered by people who read his…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
There are limits to what one can be expected to put up with before taking action against such malicious, groundless, and willful defamation.
I’m ready for the lawsuits to begin today, Banned.
Give it your best shot.
If the Wall Street Con Men have sufficient pull that they can get someone sent to prison for the “crime” of having discovered the errors in the Old School safe…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
You put things out there that provoke people and then act like a victim.
Did my famous post of May 13, 2002, pointing out the errors in John Greaney’s retirement study provoke people?
It did.
I know because I was there. Lots of people who I consider friends used that study to make decisions as to when to hand in resignations from high-paying jobs and then live only on their savings…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I put to another blog entry at this site:
So you didn’t write a word of the paper yet you are the author. OK, makes sense.
That’s how Supreme Court justices do it, Laugh.
Do you think they write all the words that appear under their names?
They hire clerks to do that.
The clerks write the words. The Supreme Court justices DECIDE WHICH WORDS WILL APPEAR.
Wade had to learn about a lot of things to be able to write the words that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
But you expect people to somehow anoint you as a sage when all you’ve done is repeat something that far more capable and far more schooled and far more successful people have said for decades if not centuries.And if THEY could not develop a magic timing scheme that works in today’s (and tomorrow’s) world, what gives you the hubris to think you, and you alone, could do so?
I don’t care…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
I also want to just make sure I am clear on the totality of your message. As I understand it, you believe that the entire financial well-being of our country (and possibly the world) has been put in jeopardy because a dozen or so financial boards have decided to ban you from posting and that all of this can be saved if the ban is removed and you can post whatever you want at any…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
I was curious as to why you never post a link to the actual death threat tat you claim was made. All I have seen is your link to your own comments. Can you enlighten us?
I don’t do it because it would be stupid to do it, Anonymous.
The Campaign of Terror has been going on for 12 years. There are THOUSANDS of cases of brutal abusiveness. I posted about the errors in the Old…

Yesterday's blog entry reported on my correspondence with Kevin, owner of the Out of Your Rut blog. Set forth below is follow-up correspondence:
Kevin:
Thanks much for your response.
I agree with most of what you say.
I obviously don't agree with the part about backing down until the worm turns. There are three reasons. One, learning is a building block process. I learn by exploring things and talking things over. I have learned AMAZING things over the past 11 years that I would…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob, Rephrased another way, many of us do not agree with your statements and have given you the reason why. However, you are not banned because of this disagreements. Instead, you are banned because of your behavior. Many have told you time after time as to your behavior issues and you just ignore it. You feel as if you should be able to act any way you want on a board, despite the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob says: “The legal way for this debate to have proceeded would have been to have permitted honest posting going back to 1981. ”
Uhm, Rob…….the internet did not exist in 1981. Not only that, it was a long time until there were financial discussion boards after the start up of the internet.
No, the internet didn’t exist. But the same tactics were being employed in the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Rob: “Tell the truth of why people with black skin were once not permitted to drink from the same water fountains as people with white skin in 10 words. It cannot be done.”
A: Racism.
(Only needed one word to get the job done, so you can have the other nine budgeted words back, since you love to use words so promiscuously)
Then how did the situation change?
If racism was the only…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Super post, Canuck. I relate to everything you say here.
Shiller published his research showing that valuations affect long-term returns in 1981. If valuations affect long-term returns, the risk of stock investing increases each time valuations increase. Buy-and-Holders recommend staying at the same stock allocation at all times. That means that your risk profile is usually wrong. You are…

Set forth below are the texts of two comments that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Actually what X said does make perfect sense. It is actual mathematical proof that you have made zero progress and your time, even by your own accounts, is absolutely worthless.
So all efforts to achieve civil rights were of zero value except for President Johnson’s signing of the Civil Rights Act?
I don’t buy it, Anonymous.
You never get to the point where a President is…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a blog entry at this site:
And how exactly will a ‘mafia’ crush those who try to post anonymously here?
You are making a legitimate point with your use of the word “anonymously” here, What. I have said on earlier occasions that people don’t speak up about the trickery of the Buy-and-Hold MAfia because they are afraid of what will be done to them and to their careers if they do. You are making the point that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a blog entry at this site:
The “buy and hold mafia” blocks your success at every turn. It sends death threats to your millions of followers to keep them from commenting here, and has gotten away with all this for years. Not one arrest. That is one smart mafia. Yet they can’t stop your daily rants against them. That is one stupid mafia.
I agree with your suggestion that the members of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia are both very…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
A community resource is some that is part of shared services, like a park. When you buy stock, you are taking ownership in a piece of a company. It isNOT open for consumption by the community at large. Instead, it is solely for the owners.
The last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research produced KNOWLEDGE.
There are millions of people who are investing in stocks to finance their…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board:
>
Tell me Rob, what's ethical about disclosing the contents of private emails sent to you against the wishes of the sender? Wade is not ashamed of anything he said in any of those e-mails, Yip. He is very, very PROUD of the work he did. Nothing could be more clear. He communicates this clearly over and over and over again.
He is AFRAID. He has financial responsibility for two small children. He…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board:
Rob doesn't seem to realize that almost all websites are private property and he can post at them only if the owner allows. An owner can ban him from a site for any reason, and he has no recourse.
>
That's not what the laws concerning financial fraud say, GW. If the purpose of the ban is to cover-up an error made in a retirement study, the ban is an act of financial fraud.…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
“The Buy-and-Holders say that the safe withdrawal rate is 4 percent “over and over.”
I dont think this is true. Tilting at windmills.
The errors in the Old School retirement studies should have been corrected within 24 hours of the moment that they became public knowledge. That was the morning of May 13, 2002. The studies have not been corrected to this day.
Yes, there have been…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Just to be clear, this [my claim that the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies is the greatest act of financial fraud in the history of the United States] is your belief, and you could be wrong. It’s also something no one else in the world believes.
Every word that I put forward is my belief and could be wrong.
But given that this belief of mine…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“I don’t know where you got that one, Anonymous.”
Read the second line of your last response.
The second line of the post that I believe is the one that you are referring to states : “Have you ever seen a Valuation-Informed Indexer put forward a death threat?” How does that translate into: “So John, Mel, Jack and Wade all made death threats?,”…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
This is the only blog I’ve ever seen that exists entirely in the past (perceived slights) and in a deranged imaginary future (prison terms, huge payday, blah blah) Never a word about the present. At this point anything would be welcome. Did you have breakfast this morning? Did you throw yourself a birthday party?
It is things that happened in the past that are destroying our future,…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
In your mind, the people going to prison are those that had you banned from the various financial boards, correct?
The crime we are talking about is financial fraud, Anonymous. In a hyper-technical sense, anyone who has recommended a Buy-and-Hold strategy from 1981 forward is guilty of the crime. Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller published peer-reviewed research in 1981 showing that…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
your lies about what you call buy and hold.
Do Buy-and-Holders urge investors to change their stock allocations in response to big valuation shifts or not, Pink?
I am 100 percent okay with calling Valuation-Informed Indexing “The New Buy-and-Hold” or “Buy-and-Hold 2.0? or whatever. I considered myself a Buy-and-Holder on the morning of May 13, 2002. Jack Bogle is a hero of mine. It…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Are you going to talk about Wade, goons, death threats, prison sentences and lawsuits at FinCon? It would be dishonest and corrupt to avoid those topics when mingling with your fellow bloggers, since that is ALL you talk about here.
That is not all I talk about here, X.
I have five calculators here that exist nowhere else on the internet.
I have over 200 RobCasts and just…

Set forth below are the texts of two comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
I just wanted to confirm with you that asset allocation, and whether one prefers to vary it with valuations, is a personal matter with no right or wrong answer. We make take differing views, but there’s no need to be dogmatic about them.
Dogmatism hurts us.
There are two schools of thought. One is rooted in the research of Eugene Fama. One is rooted in the research of Robert Shiller.…

This article should be read in conjunction with the article titled Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies. Both articles explore the same material -- the 140 blog entries at the A Rich Life blog reporting on the breakthrough findings of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau showing that for the entire 140 years of stock market history for which we have available to us stock-return data Valuation-Informed Indexing…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
So even if your load of BS regarding Wade is true what about the thousands of other researchers you referenced?
Many of the researchers still believe in Buy-and-Hold, Anonymous. Wade believed in Buy-and-Hold before we did our work together. John Walter Russell also believed in Buy-and-Hold before we did our work together. And I believed in Buy-and-Hold myself before Greaney threatened to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/insights-on-using-the-withdrawal-rule-from-its-creator#comments
Bengen is asked about and comments about Wade, Shiller, Michael Kitces, FIRECalc, CAPE. There’s even a link to one of Wade’s papers (sadly, not the one you wrote.) This is an active comment thread, so there’s no excuse for you not jumping in.
But you…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
All you said was “timing might make a difference”. Not why it would make a difference. Do you think anyone at Reddit ponders and deliberates and soul-searches like that before deciding to post a comment?
I certainly don’t think that anyone else at Reddit soul-searches like that.
I am in different circumstances than anyone else.
This is world-changing…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board:
Hey, Rob -- is this "Free-n-Open" enough for ya?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/save-like-dave-ramsey%E2%80%A6just-don-t-invest-li ke-him-214921529.html
Dave Ramsey, Christine Benz, Mike Piper, Wade Pfau, et al mix it up with some pretty vigorous words and thoughts over on Money™! I thought the Buy-n-Hold mafia had this kind of 'off-the-reservation' chatter all…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Tip: If you can’t link to a NYT or WSJ article about it, it probably doesn’t exist in the wider world.
If you take a look at the “People Are Talking” section of the site, you will come across a quote in which Bret Arends says in the pages of the Wall Street Journal that the Wall Street Con Men pushing Buy-and-Hold strategies 33 years after the peer-reviwed research showed that there…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob,
If I give you a link that backs up Shiller saying not to use CAPE to time the market, will you agree to apologize and admit you were wrong and also admit you are wrong on buy-hold-rebalance? I would also expect you to apologize to those you have called goons on this issue.
I am willing to back up my comment or do you want to just apologize now.
The statement would have to be…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau continue to post honestly on investing in retirement!
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=123070&newpost=1802104
I don’t agree with you, Trebor.
Both Michael and Wade of course do wonderful work. And their work is of course PARTLY honest.
But fully honest?
No way, no how. Not a close call.
Both Michael and Wade know…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently added to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
If there were hundreds of millions to be made from Shillers model, why doesn’t Shiller himself promote that and reap those millions?
This is a good question.
And of course the thought being expressed here applies not just to Shiller. It applies to everyone working in this field. The shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
I think the main point is that your ridiculous behavior and off the rails reputation make it highly unlikely that you will ever be viewed as a public champion for this line of thought should it become more popular. People who can ‘hold it together’ and appear to be sane/reasonable will do that.
The average person has little problem understanding Valuation-Informed Indexing, Laugh. We…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
Fear and attacks are your game. You are the one calling people goons and con-men. You are the one telling people they are going to prison.
You haven't accomplished a thing, unless you consider avoiding work an accomplishment.
Calling you a Goon makes me a Goon, Sammy. That makes perfect sense.
I sent an e-mail to the site administrator of the Motley…

Set forth below is the text of a comment posted by Marc to the Guest Blog Entry that I wrote titled Investing Is a Political Act:
Well thought out and well written post, but it misses a few things.
The current crisis isn’t the result of inflated stock prices. Those prices are just a symptom of the Fed’s inflating the money supply. That may seem a bit wonky, but it’s a very important distinction, and needs to be understood.
The reason so many people lost so much is due to two…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Notice that when people learn more about you and your comments, they eventually move away from you, disagree with you or ignore you. Examples are JD, Mike Piper, and Wade. Remember the thread on FMF? When your story started to unfold and people learned more, they turned away. Why is it that your purported supporters like Joe and Kevin re not giving you a regular columns? Are they starting to…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a blog entry at this site:
The responses to the e-mails are available to anyone who cares to view them, What.
The Wall Street Con Men have been screwing millions of middle-class investors for 32 years now.
The losses they have caused have grown so massive that we are now in an economic crisis.
My site documents this massive act of financial fraud.
That’s how change is achieved, What.
How do you think we got the…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
We cannot ignore the Goons, Pink. The Goons are a big part of the story.
When the book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” was published in 1974, Buy-and-Hold was the state-of-the-art strategy. People truly believed in those days. There was genuine peer-reviewed academic research that at least appeared to support the Buy-and-Hold strategy.
Buy-and-Hold was discredited in 1981, when Shiller…

Set forth below is the text of a recent comment that I put to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
First of all, you were banned from those boards because of your poor behavior. I can provide links if needed, but a simple google search will show this to be true.
Secondly, your post in 2002 is famous only in your mind. In fact, you should be embarrassed to bring it up. As Wade Pfau stated on his blog, you were given the answer to your question within 84…

Set forth below is the text of an answer that I submitted to a question ("What Are the Best Tools for Learning About Finance and the Stock Market?) at the Quora site:
I am obviously biased but I believe that The Stock-Return Predictor is an essential tool for all stock investors. The calculator performs a regression analysis on the historical return data to reveal the most likely 10-year annualized return starting from any possible valuation level.
Knowing your return in advance takes…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
All I can say is the moderators of Bogleheads are slightly demented in their views. As noted by the author they allow personal to vile attacks against those who question orthodoxy and will not allow even the slightest retaliation. I was victimized by one of the many pets of the moderators and banned because I privately chided the moderator for selectively editing my posts and while allowing…

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Yes, I get that you are now 100% fixated on punishing me, rather than pursuing your own goals. If Wade’s paper gets written up in the New York Times, he gets all the glory and rewards. The first step is getting recognized experts like Bengen to acknowledge that he was the first. And that step is checked off. Of course, Wade could wave his hands and say “Shucks no, all this glory belongs to Rob Bennett. He’s the real brains behind any CAPE-based timing strategy.” Yes, that’s the ticket. That’s what will happen. Or you could take two minutes right now to set Bengen straight. Nope, you said that’s not an option. Anytime that anyone writes honestly about what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us all about how stock investing works, it benefits each and every one of us who is trying to do the same. There is no limit on the credit that can be handed out. Millions of investors need access to accurate information. Thousands of investment advisers want to give it to them. The thing that is standing in their way is a Wall of Ignorance. People cannot believe the realities — that we now know of a way to invest in stocks that is far less risky and that allows people to retire far earlier in life — because they just sound too good to be true. Anyone who does anything to knock down that wall is helping all of us in a big way. Say that Wade does as you say. I am not saying that I think he would — I do not. But just say for purposes of discussion that he did. That would be an absolute boon for me. If the study that Wade and I prepared gets publicized — regardless of who gets the credit for it — it instantly becomes easier to tell the truth about stock investing at hundreds of different sites. So all of my stuff — I’ve developed a lot of it over the years — gets out. How does that hurt me? You always talk as if the key to getting credit is being smarter than other people. That’s not the reality here. Most Buy-and-Holders possess more than enough […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Uh oh, Rob. Bill Bengen points out the research and data that says you are wrong and that VII is a failure: “I have not studied in great detail the correlation between Shiller CAPE and withdrawal rate. However, Michael Kitces, a celebrated financial planner who has also done some important research in the area of withdrawal rates, produced an interesting chart some years ago. It showed a strong negative correlation between CAPE and each year’s safe withdrawal rates. So, I am not surprised at the conclusion that Wade reached, although I believe he may have been the first to quantify the “boost” to SAFEMAX by using a timing strategy. However, for those who wait for a low enough CAPE to invest fully in stocks, it has been a frustrating 25 years, as CAPE has been below its average of about 16 only about 25% of the time during that span (if that much). Today, of course, CAPE stands at more than twice its long-term average. It will be interesting to see if it does indeed “mean revert”, and even drop below its long term average. The only time that has happened in the last 25 years was for a few weeks in 2009. ” That last paragraph is power-packed stuff, Anonymous. I am grateful to you for sharing it with us. The claim that the last 25 years have been “frustrating” for Valuation-Informed Indexers is true only from the perspective of a Buy-and-Holder. Yes, if we have missed out on gains, then it could be viewed as frustrating. But the entire question in dispute is the question he puts on the table two sentences later when he questions whether prices will eventually mean revert or even drop below their long-term average. If that happens, the math shows that the Valuation-Informed Indexers will be far, far ahead of the Buy-and-Holders, too far ahead for the Buy-and-Holders to entertain any realistic expectations of ever catching up. Do I believe that prices are going to mean revert? 100 percent. I have never been more sure of anything in my life. Could I be wrong? 100 percent. I am one of those darn humans. We get them wrong all the time. All of us do. That includes me. We should […]

I’ve posted Entry #376 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called How Many Bull/Bear Cycles Are Required to Prove That Valuations Matter? Juicy Excerpt: I sometimes make the claim that 100 percent of the evidence available to us today supports Shiller’s view of how stock investing works and 0 percent supports Fama’s view. I of course understand that the statement strikes most Buy-and-Holders as extreme and absurd. But I advance the claim sincerely. It’s that hill-and-valley graphic showing how valuations play out in the long term that persuades me that the case is so strong. The hill-and-valley graphic applies for the entire history of the stock market. And it is logically incompatible with a belief in Buy-and-Hold. A visitor to my website asked me the other day how many times the hill-and-valley pattern has played out. The answer is four times. We came to the end of one bull/bear cycle in the early years of the 20th Century. We came to the end of a second at the onset of the Great Depression. The third ended with the stagflation of the 1970s. And we are presumably nearing the end of the fourth bull/bear cycle in our nation’s history today. Four completions of the cycle was not enough evidence to make the case for my friend. He asked me to get back to him when I can say that the same basic cycle has played out not four times but thirty times. Related PostsValuation-Informed Indexing #270: A Critic of Valuation-Informed Indexing Offers a Concise Case for Why Buy-and-Hold Is SuperiorValuation-Informed Indexing #269: Eight Questions That Should Be Keeping Buy-and-Holders Up at NightValuation-Informed Indexing #260 : Shiller’s Ideas Should Be Treated as Mainstream IdeasValuation-Informed Indexing #267: Take Valuations Seriously and You Will Discover Things That You Were Not Initially Even Seeking to DiscoverValuation-Informed Indexing #258: It Is Critical to Distinguish Returns-Sequence Risk from Valuations Risk When Calculating Safe Withdrawal RatesValuation-Informed Indexing #259: Return Predictions Are Implicit in All Investing Advice

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Hi Rob. Come join us. Love, Robert, Wade, Bill and Michael We’ll all be working together in the days following the next price crash, Anonymous. The only difference is that there will be more human misery if we wait. I vote for us all pulling together today. But you know what? I only get one vote. Others get to decide what others do. So we will have to wait a bit to see how things play out. I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person. Rob Related Posts “We Will All Be in a Better Place When I Can Go to Any Discussion Board or Blog on the Internet and Post With 100 Percent Honesty and Not Have Any Concern Whatsoever That Intimidation Tactics Will Be Directed At Me. We All Do Our Best Work When We Feel Free to Follow Our Ideas Where They Lead Us As We Further Develop Them. I Want That for Everyone.”“I Have Raised the Possibility of an Amnesty for People Who Have Continued to Promote Buy-and-Hold Because They Once Truly Believed in it and Who Are Suffering Cognitive Dissonance re the Last 34 Years of Research Because It Is Just Too Hard for Them to Accept That They Got Something Wrong. But I Can’t Adopt an Amnesty By Myself. We Have to Get Congress Involved. We Need to Have a National Debate.”“After the Crash, the Floodgates Open. People Will Give Up Their Feelings of Embarrassment and Shame and Become Determined to Get Things Back on the Right Track. At That Point the Owners of the Bogleheads Forum Are Not Going to Be Resisting My Efforts to Take Over. They Are Gong to Be Asking Me to Take Over. We Are Going to Be Friends.”“If I Had the Power to Release You All of Your Prison Terms and Your Civil-Suit Liabilities and Your Various Embarrassments, I Would Do It In Two Seconds in Exchange for Your Willingness to Permit the National Debate That Thousands of Our Fellow Community Members Have Evidenced a Desire to See Proceed.”“Shiller Showed Us That It Is Primarily INVESTOR EMOTION That Determines Stock Prices, Not Economic Developments. So We All Need to Make a Switch to Talking Primarily About Investor […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/insights-on-using-the-withdrawal-rule-from-its-creator#comments Bengen is asked about and comments about Wade, Shiller, Michael Kitces, FIRECalc, CAPE. There’s even a link to one of Wade’s papers (sadly, not the one you wrote.) This is an active comment thread, so there’s no excuse for you not jumping in. But you don’t. How can you just sit on the sidelines? You say you have the most important job in the world. This is right in your freakin wheelhouse. If you stay silent now, then obviously nothing will ever rouse you from your hibernation. I’m grateful for the link, Anonymous. I have commented at hundreds of places. The problem is certainly not that I have not commented enough. We have a problem as a society. Shiller provided us the last piece of the stock investing puzzle in 1981. Had he published his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings in 1961, there never would have been any Buy-and-Hold. But it didn’t happen that way. By the time Shiller showed that valuations affect long-term returns, we already had an entire industry built around Buy-and-Hold. All of the powerful and wealthy people who were making their living promoting Buy-and-Hold did not want their clients and readers and friends to realize that they had made a mistake. So they kept quiet about the far-reaching implications of what Shiller had done. They praised him, they patted him on the head, they patronized him, down the road a piece they even awarded him a Nobel prize. But they didn’t change any of their strategic recommendations to reflect his research findings. And, as time passed, it became harder and harder for them to acknowledge their mistake and thereby bring the cover-up to an end. It’s now been 36 years. It’s now not just hard to admit the mistake, as it would have been in 1981. It’s now very, very, very, very hard. I did not cause any of this. I came along in 2002, when I saw that Greaney got the numbers wrong in his retirement study and told my friends at the Motley Fool’s Retire Early board. Hundreds of them saw right away how important that post was. They said that I had started the most important discussion ever held in that board’s history. Greaney threatened to kill family […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “But they have not emotionally taken in the knowledge that they possess so that they can make productive use of it. …The knowledge that they possess sits in their brains but they have not integrated it with their other thoughts” And don’t you think it’s a wee bit presumptuous to claim you know the inner working of the minds of thousands of people you’ve never met, many of whom you agree are far more intelligent and experienced than you are? I’m intelligent enough to see that there is no valuation adjustment in the retirement study posted at Greaney’s site, Anonymous. And I am intelligent enough to know that Shiller’s research showing that valuations affect long-term returns must be legitimate research or else he would mot have been awarded a Nobel prize for it. I am intelligent enough to know that there is no place for death threats in discussions of stock investing. And that there is no place for demands for unjustified board bannings. And that there is no place for thousands of acts of defamation. And that there is no place for threats to get an academic researcher fired from his job. If you have a better explanation for the events that we have seen transpire over the past 15 years, I would be happy to hear it. Neither you nor anyone else has even tried to put forward a better explanation. So, no, I don’t think it’s presumptuous at all. These events demand an explanation. And there is an explanation available in the psychological literature — cognitive dissonance. So that’s the one that I am going with until I hear something better. You don’t have to accept my explanation if you don’t care to. You asked me a question and I gave you an honest response. My explanation is 100 percent sincere. I am as intelligent as I am, no more and no less. And that’s what I have come up with at this point in the proceedings. I look for new insights every day. So perhaps down the road a bit I will be able to add some detail to it. My best wishes. Rob Related Posts“At the Very Bare Minimum, We Need to Make It a Practice to Tell Both Sides of […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “Stocks are today priced at two times fair value.” To be clear, this is a fact Wall Street is not aware of – otherwise they would immediately dump stocks. Is that fair to say? You are making a great point here, Anonymous. If you would reflect on this point a bit, the entire matter would click for you. Just about everybody on Wall Street is aware intellectually of what the P/E10 level is today. You see it mentioned all the time in articles. These people are obviously not dumb. So on an intellectual level, they know what they need to know. But they have not emotionally taken in the knowledge that they possess so that they can make productive use of it. They rationalize away this knowledge that they possess. They tell themselves “oh, nobody knows when the crash is coming and I cannot afford to miss out on gains in the meantime” or whatever. The knowledge that they possess sits in their brains but they have not integrated it with their other thoughts on all of the various strategic questions and so it is as if the knowledge did not exist. It is passive knowledge. It is not being put to productive use. It helps to remember what happened in the famous psychology experiment from the 1950s, the Asch experiment. People were put in a room and asked to identify which of two lines — a 12-inch line and an 18-inch line — were longer. Their brains possessed all the knowledge needed to supply the correct answer. It was obvious to them that the 18-inch line was longer. But the four people who were plants and who spoke before them all identified the 12-inch line as longer. This psychological reality neutralized the knowledge they possessed. Humans are social creatures. Evolution put something within us that tells us “don’t go against the tribe no matter what your brain tells you.” So they told the person conducting the experiment that they “thought” the 12-inch line was the longer one. Their emotions cancelled out the product of their mental processes. All of these people on Wall Street “know” what it means to say that stocks are priced at two times fair value, Anonymous. But their emotions — their […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Rob, It’s the same old thing, people think the party will never end. until it does. I have a friend who retired with $1million cash, his advisor told him to put it in the market in 2008. Well after a 60% loss he sold I guess anyone would. After this his advisor suggested going back in with the rest to “make his money back stocks, are cheap”. Well after all the dust settled he was left with $150,000. He cant go back to work and now he lives on SSI and depression. I myself have only 10% allocated to stocks now. Until you live through this or know someone who has you dont get it, the goons don’t because they cant be wrong. What really bothers me is the “common knowledge” that markets ALWAYS comes back? Really? all advisors say this, It is in all the financial articles on the web. I know I can’t remember the dates, but 7, 15, 20 years to recover. in the past,I for one do not want to sit and wait in fear hoping the market will come back for the rest of my life. Thank you for working so hard to get the word out, some of us get it Rob. Am I trying to get the word out or am I trying to learn myself? I think that the bottom line here is that I am trying to learn myself. There’s a message that I push. But, when you boil it all down, that message is: “Not one of us knows as much as he thinks he does, so we should all be willing to hear the other fellow out and learn what we can from someone coming at things from a different perspective.” That’s a process that serves us well in our efforts to learn in all other fields of human endeavor and it seems to me, that given how important investing is, it makes sense for us to apply the same learning process there that works in every other other field of human endeavor. Thanks for stopping by, Max. Non-Dogmatic Rob Related Posts“Part of the Job is to Describe the Pressures that Caused so Many Generally Good and Smart People Either to Participate in the Cover-Up […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “It’s his abusiveness.” Really? Here are just a few of your quotes from those pesky Post Archives. “The “4 percent rule” has caused millions of busted retirements” “When you calculate the SWR accurately, you find that the withdrawal rate that is described in the Old School studied as “100 percent safe” has only a one in three chance of working out for those who retired at the top of the bubble. That means that there are going to be millions of busted retirements resulting from just this one error” “I think the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies caused millions of busted retirements by getting the numbers so wildly wrong.” “There are going to be millions of busted retirements resulting from the demonstrably false claims put forward in the Old School safe-withdrawal rates studies.” There’s no conflict between those statements and what I am saying here. The 4 percent rule will have caused millions of failed retirements in the days following the next crash (we obviously will not have any problem if it turns out that the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research is not legitimate research). Who is responsible for those millions of failed retirements? If it was all a mistake, no one was responsible. If it all was a mistake, then we all just have to be careful not to repeat the mistake. But that’s not the situation that we are dealing with. I pointed out the mistake in a post that I put to the Retire Early board at the Motley Fool site on the morning of May 13, 2002. Thousands of our fellow community members expressed excitement over the post, saying that they saw it as the most valuable post in the history of the board. Big-name experts like Rob Arnott endorsed the post, saying it checks out with what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research says in every way and that it opens up the way to hundreds of big advances in our understanding of how stock investing works. A fellow with a Ph.D. in Economic saw how excited people were over the things they were learning in the debate that followed the post asked me if I would be willing to co-author research showing that this post led us […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “I believe that Greaney has caused millions of failed retirements.” Exactly how? You’re still waffling on that. If it’s his 4% rule you should forget about nobody Greaney and focus on famous Bengen, who says 4.5%. If Greaney busted millions of retirements, Bengen certainly busted billions. If it’s Greaney’s abusiveness, how does his abuse bust the retirements of millions of people who never heard of either of you? It’s his abusiveness. Greaney didn’t come up with the 4 percent rule. He is not responsible for the intellectual mistake. I don’t think it would be fair to blame the people (like Bengen) who ARE responsible for the intellectual mistake for the millions of failed retirements. People made mistakes. That’s just one of those things. There is no evidence that the mistake was intentional, that the aim was to cause millions of failed retirements. So I don’t see that there is any blame to cast there. Greaney’s abusiveness IS intentional. That’s why I cast blame on him in a way that I do not cast blame on Bengen or lots of others. You suggest that Greaney’s abusiveness has not hurt the millions of people who have never heard of him or me. I disagree. I built the Retire Early board at Motley Fool into the #1 discussion board at that site with a purpose in mind — I wanted to teach millions of people how to achieve financial independence early in life. It was my intent to spread the word about what we learned about safe withdrawal rates to everyone on the planet. Greaney blocked that process from moving forward with his criminally abusive behavior. Wade Pfau and I intended to work together to get our grounds-breaking study showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing is superior to Buy-and-Hold featured on the front page of the New York Times. Greaney stopped that from happening by threatening to get Wade fired from his job if he continued doing honest work in this field. He destroyed millions of middle-class lives with that criminal act. Has anyone ever been more deserving of a long prison sentence? Valuation-Informed Indexing is a pure good. It’s all upside and zero downside. And millions of middle-class people who very much need access to honest and informed reports of […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Just because you were able to browbeat Wade into emailing the Trinity guys doesn’t mean I’ll do your bidding too. Set up your own damn forum. But I promise I’ll read the historical transcript. Okay. Related PostsGoon Poster to Rob: “You Have Stated What You Think Are Problems. People Have Responded As to How They Disagree. People Eventually Got Angry Because of Repetitive Comments Going in Circles.”“Part of the Job is to Describe the Pressures that Caused so Many Generally Good and Smart People Either to Participate in the Cover-Up or at the Minimum Tolerate It. I Post These Goon Conversation Blog Entries to Help People Come to a Full Understanding of What Happened.”“Wade Pfau Never Wrote Any Words of That Nature Until You Threatened to Send Defamatory E-Mails to His Employer. Words That Are Said As the Result of Intimidation Tactics Don’t Count. Wade Said What He Really Believes About Safe Withdrawal Rates and About Valuation-Informed Indexing and About Me in Hundreds of E-Mails That He Exchanged With Me, Many of Which I Have Reported on at My Site.”Rob Bennett to Wade Pfau: “It is 100 Percent Wrong That People Posting at Bogleheads Feel Intimdated re Posting My Name…. By Using My Name, You Help Others Get Over Their Feelings of Intimidation”“After the Crash, the Floodgates Open. People Will Give Up Their Feelings of Embarrassment and Shame and Become Determined to Get Things Back on the Right Track. At That Point the Owners of the Bogleheads Forum Are Not Going to Be Resisting My Efforts to Take Over. They Are Gong to Be Asking Me to Take Over. We Are Going to Be Friends.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: We Have Only Your Word That Wade Ever Said That, or Ever Even Mentioned VII By Name. He Certainly Says Nothing of the Kind Today. In Fact, To You, He Says Nothing At All.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “I think Bengen is wrong. I think that I have a responsibility to say so.” And so you do. Here, behind his back. But you won’t express your math-free gut-feel opinion in a comment section where he might see it. How is that living up to your responsibility? No. I engaged in an e-mail conversation with Bengen a number of years back. I told him that I think he is wrong re safe withdrawal rates. Set up a debate at the Bogleheads Forum. We can have Bengen there. We can have me there. We can have Bogle there. We can have Shiller there. We can have Greaney there. We can have Linduaer there. We can have Pfau there. See how it goes. No death threats. No demands for unjustified board bannings. No thousands of acts of defamation. No threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. We’ll make history. Rob Related PostsGoon Poster to Rob: “You Have Stated What You Think Are Problems. People Have Responded As to How They Disagree. People Eventually Got Angry Because of Repetitive Comments Going in Circles.”“We Should Be Asking Bogle Where He Got That Number If He Did Not in Fact Pull It Out of His Backside. Since He’s Available at the Bogleheads Forum and Appears at the Annual Meeting, That’s the Perfect Place to Put Him on the Hot Seat.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “I and Many Others Are Confident in Buy–Hold-and-Rebalance. You Seem to Be the Only One Confident in Valuation-Informed Indexing.”Goon Poster at Value Walk Site: “All One Needs to Do Is Read Your Posts and See That the Vast Majority of Your Posts Include Complaints About What You Think of Shiller, Bogle, Pfau and Others. You Want to Talk About Taking People Down, Down, Down. Just Read Your Own Posts.”“Most People Who Agree With Shiller Hold Back From Exploring All the Implications of His Ideas Publicly. That’s Why Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Only Won Over 20 Percent of the Population in 34 Years. I Want It to Win Over 100 Percent of the Population. So I Say Things in the Way in Which They Must Be Said for Us to Get to 100 Percent.”“It’s ALL a Guide. But You Buy-and-Hold Goons Don’t ACT Like It’s All a […]

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: It makes perfect sense. You despise Greaney. You just won’t say that, so you blindly attack his work. Do you know how many Google hits there are out there for “rob bennett” “millions of busted retirements”? Lots. And the cause of all those busted retirements? The 4% rule. Now, magically, you have no problem with it. 4%, 4.5%, whatever, it’s all good, let’s just get along. Today you say “Greaney has destroyed millions of middle-class lives with his insanely abusive behavior.” Which is absurd, but it clearly shows your problem with him is personal. Until someone says it’s personal. Then the problem is back to the 4% rule. I don’t despise John as a person even a tiny bit. I had a lot of good times with the guy. I never would have had those times if he had not started that Retire Early board. When I was starting work on the book that became “Passion Saving,” I asked John to be my co-author. Why would I do that if I despised him? This claim makes no sense. And it’s not right to say that I blindly attack his work. I reviewed his retirement study when he published it as a report at the Soapbox.com site. I gave it a five-star review. I felt a little funny about doing that because I knew at the time (but had not come out publicly and said so) that he got the numbers wrong in his study. I rationalized what I did on grounds that his study was a significant advance on the retirement literature that was in place before he came on the scene. I still believe that to be the case. Peter Lynch was the manager of the Magellan fund. He was a pretty big deal. Lynch said that the safe withdrawal rate was 7 percent. Greaney said it was 4 percent. Greaney was a lot closer to the mark than Lynch was. Not bad for a guy whose only qualifications to write about the subject were that he (like me) had figured out how to get his words posted to an internet site. So I like the guy as a person and I admire his work. But, yes, you are right that I believe that Greaney […]