Connor McDavid spoke yesterday to Shawn McKenzie of Sportsnet about the Edmonton Oilers and the coming winter, giving fans a chance to hear from the captain about the summer’s proceedings. (Source)

McDavid talks Leon Draisaitl: “It’s so exciting that he’s back and there for eight years and I get to play with him for a long time and work together towards something great.”

I estimated McDavid and Draisaitl would spend 70 percent of the season (5×5) together in 2017-18 and remain convinced the total number of minutes together will be substantial. There’s a chemistry between the two, and despite facts (like Eberle’s numbers basically being a match) it’s clear both players believe in the magic and the coach showed he does, too. We’ll see, and eventually Leon Draisaitl is likely to move to pivot but it is not certain to come this season.

McDavid talks management:“I think what you’re seeing now is the product of some good decisions. We hired a great coaching staff, a great head coach, and a great GM. They’ve made some changes that have been ballsy changes but have definitely worked out. What you’re seeing is a great collection of hockey minds that have put together a pretty good team, that are good people as well. I think that’s an important thing.”

I saw a lot of riffing last night from these quotes, seems people are either delighted by the quotes or dismissive. I thought it was impressive, young man clearly believes in the team, management and process. We can argue chapter and verse, for me this is a sign of a player who is absolutely committed to the program and I’ll buy that all day. All day. The construction of a winner is a little more complicated, but having 97 bound and determined is a massive advantage.

ROOKIE CAMPS AND INVITES

Beginning in the next few days, we’re going to start getting news trickle in about players who attend rookie camp, and possibly one or two PTO additions. I always like to list the youngsters who attended orientation camp because it’s a good bet one or two of those names will also attend the rookie camp. Here are the players I think we might see.

L Evan Polei:Size and skill (6.02, 227 and 33 WHL goals) are intriguing. He is on an AHL deal, I think he may be an excellent pro if the wheels improve a little. He has good hands.

R Chad Butcher: Small winger (5.10, 172) was a Penticton invite one year ago. Speed main weapon, his scoring has improved over his WHL career.

RD Sahvan Khaira: Huge defender (and Jujhar’s brother) went 70gp, 1-16-17 for the Swift Current Broncos. Reading about his progress last season, Khaira seems to have played with more of an edge and with that he impacted more plays. If he does get invited, I’ll be watching for the physical aspect of his game.

C-W Davis Koch: He’s a thin forward who has emerged as a solid offensive player. A nice skater, good playmaker and I think he has improved without the puck. I like this player type.

RC Steve Owre: WHL skill center is now finished in junior and at 21 this is a nice opportunity (especially if it turns into a rookie camp invite). 88 points in 71 games. Good skater.

C Kevin Klima:Small skill center is 20 years old and scored 36 points in two QMJHL stops this season. He has a good wrist shot and works hard away from the puck. Undersized.

R Kelly Klima: Small skill winger is 20 years old and scored 49 points while with two teams in the QMJHL this year. Good speed and hands.

LC Brandon Saigeon: Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL) forward is 19 and scored 49 points in 66 games this past season. He has good size, reasonable speed and finally posted some good offense this past season. One of the more promising prospects among this group based on the numbers.

RC Ethan Szypula: 11-36-47 in 64 games for Owen Sound (OHL). Has a good shot. Brock Otten: Szypula is not a big guy (5’11, 170ish), but he plays a big man’s game.

The players whose names are crossed off were not on the roster by the following opening night. That’s eight men who were offloaded from one to another (Nail Yakupov was just before opening night 2016). The turnover on each wing really stands out for me, Peter Chiarelli cleared the decks, six of the eight names gone were left or right wingers.

With a few weeks left to go, seven men are out and once again wingers (four) are finding the exits. Chiarelli has done very little to change the defense this summer, and the centermen continue to pile up (Ryan Strome has been added to the names above). I wonder if we see a similar turnover in wingers this year.

THE 50-MAN LIST

There was a little confusion in the comments section yesterday about the 50-man roster, a few posts suggesting Peter Chiarelli had boxed himself in. As a matter of fact, Edmonton currently has two spots still available, one left if Kailer Yamamoto gets nine games. There are at least two ways for Peter Chiarelli to make room on the 50-man.

Trade Jujhar Khaira. He is waiver eligible and Khaira would be a player of interest for other NHL teams. If a Mitch Callahan or Joe Gambardella pushes him for one of the final forward spots, Chiarelli can add an asset and make more room for a camp invite (more in a moment).

Waive Eric Gryba. Chiarelli signed him for two years, I think partly to sour the milk in case Gryba does get sent down. That said, there’s a good chance at least one NHL team would be looking for a RHD who could step into the lineup.

WAIVERS AND WAVERING

We’ll talk about this in the coming days but the possibility of losing a player to waivers (for 50-man purposes) got me thinking about possible pickups. Josh Leivo is a personal favorite, the Maple Leafs holding on to him but not playing him will eventually get tiresome. He would be a fantastic fit, inexpensive and skilled. Magnus Paajarvi remains a fast train and a good two-way option, Peter Chiarelli will no doubt be looking for that kind of player if internal choices are found wanting. Hunter Shinkaruk doesn’t get much mention but I think he’s an interesting player, and I’m not at all certain Griffin Reinhart makes the Golden Knights. I’ll bet money Peter Chiarelli is still interested. I’ll have a longer look at the subject in the coming days.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Both Oilers fanbases reacted strongly to Connor McDavid’s comments yesterday, one side thrilled with knowing the new King is as committed as they are to the Stanley Cup goal. The other fanbase balked at the ‘ballsy’ comments and pointed out myriad errors. Are both viewpoints true? I’m enjoying the views of both sides, for me this is a new experience. I’ve never observed such a large group of people so unimpressed with the team they cheer for, this franchise is carrying a Greek tragedy up Stanley Cup mountain. One side just wants to see the sunshine, the other side seems hellbound to block out that same light. Me? I haven’t been this happy about the Edmonton Oilers since 2005 summer. I cannot wait for the next chapter, this story is absolutely the best one available.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we hit the air with a plethora of topics. TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Can the Oilers find a way to keep Nuge, plus replacing Sekera’s minutes.

Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. Denver names their quarterback.

Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. Junior hockey, Euro hockey and college hockey players head to the rink.

Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. Cleveland and Boston make a deal.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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110 Responses to "BLUE SKY, NIGHT THUNDER"

I agree – I think we’ll see Drai play with McDavid at ES quite a bit this year. If I’m not mistaken, when controling for LW, I don’t think the ESP/60 were better with Drai on McDavid’s wing than they were with Eberle but I think the goal percentage was – is that right.

Either way, notwithstanding those stats, sometimes the eye test doesn’t lie and the chemistry does seem real.

Of course, with the big contract, most want to see Drai drive his own line to live up to it but fact of the matter is, we have many players that can play center (McDavid, Leon, Nuge, Strome, Letestu) – at the end of the day, I don’t care if Leon earns his $8.5M at 1RW or 2C as long as the Oilers are winning hockey games.

McLellan needs to run his bench in the best way to win hockey games – contracts notwithstanding.

For example, maybe having Strome at 1RW shows to be the best way to win hockey games – then do it even though it could make Strome more expensive next year.

I can’t imagine the Oilers trying to pass Gryba through waivers and send him down.

They signed this player for 2 years because he is a great #7D – when the roster is healthy, we don’t have to worry about stalling development while sitting in the press box for a stretch. He never complains about his role, his deployment or his ice. He seems like a great teammate. He provides very adequate depth.

He’d be taking a roster spot from one of Auvitu, Stanton or Simpson (as of now, I think two of them make the team with Gryba as #6).

The issue with the claim is the 50 contracts – yes, I know we could get rid of a contract if we need a spot for an acquisition but I’d rather not limit our ability to improve in any way unless the reason is material.

Is Griff material enough? Maybe – I’d like extra cover to ensure we don’t give a Bear or a Jones NHL games due to injury issues as opposed to earning them on merit.

I could be wrong but I remember something along the lines of
Maroon-McDavid-EBERLE having numbers close to Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl. It seemed that Maroon-McDavid-anybody had really good numbers.
The Lucic-McDavid-EBERLE trio were not good. Not sure about the Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl trio, but dont think the numbers great.

I had hoped to see a Lucic-RNH-Draisaitl line last year, but it never came to be.

frjohnk:
I could be wrong but I remember something along the lines of
Maroon-McDavid-EBERLE having numbers close to Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl.It seemed that Maroon-McDavid-anybody had really good numbers.
The Lucic-McDavid-EBERLE trio were not good.Not sure about the Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl trio, but dont think the numbers great.

I had hoped to see a Lucic-RNH-Draisaitl line last year, but it never came to be.

– Great post LT! I was surprised when I posted those quotes in the last thread, and not much discussion.

– Here’s what I said at the end:

– Part of the radio silence though IMO, is that it doesn’t fit the narrative of some who feel:

a) Chia is a poor trader who bleeds value
b) McL is a mediocre systems based coach who hasn’t won a cup
c) Trading Hall for Larsson wasn’t a win for the team: they got better because of other things only

– This is McD’s team now, and he’s happy with the “good people” he’s playing with. What McD sadi doesn’t jive with the “this team hasn’t done enough, or did bad moves”

– There are a number of scenarios only 1 or 2 required to make this team Cup IMO, all possible:

1) McD goes really super-nova
2) Drai firmly establishes himself as an elite C, while scoring a bunch when McD’s winger
3) Lucic scores more 5×5, and more mean (I think he was asked to play a different role last year)
4) RNH 55 points, PP#2 wizard, and Dave Keon
5) Nurse and/or Benning steps up and establishes himself as top-4
6) Klef-Larsson take another step and become an even better top-pairing
7) When Sek comes back, you have a surplus of top-4 D, on merit
8) pool-party uses his cannon shot and becomes RW for McD or Drai, and pots 20+
9) Strome establishes himself as a 50 point 3C, who works well on PP on the wing
10) Joki reverts back, and is effective tandem with a C
11) a big trade at deadline that moves the needle, and all we move out prospects/picks
12) team just bonds an believes, and after tasting playoffs they just move to next level, which is what McD said yesterday “all teams lose in playoffs before winning Cup”

– There are so many opportunities for this team to move great.: watch out.

frjohnk:
I could be wrong but I remember something along the lines of
Maroon-McDavid-EBERLE having numbers close to Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl.It seemed that Maroon-McDavid-anybody had really good numbers.
The Lucic-McDavid-EBERLE trio were not good.Not sure about the Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl trio, but dont think the numbers great.

I had hoped to see a Lucic-RNH-Draisaitl line last year, but it never came to be.

I hoping Lucic comes into camp more determined and wants to reclaim his 1LW spot. Due to CAP issues Maroon maybe gone after this season or even during. JHMO

dustrock:
Would have been easier to track last year’s progress if the year prior didn’t have so many injuries.

Yes. And I think one of the fair criticisms of Chiarelli surround it. Made his big move without a full year and making sure chem was right. OTOH he needed a RHD and Jeff Petry had been gone for over a year when he pulled the trigger.

Lowetide: Yes. And I think one of the fair criticisms of Chiarelli surround it. Made his big move without a full year and making sure chem was right. OTOH he needed a RHD and Jeff Petry had been gone for over a year when he pulled the trigger.

– If hadn’t made significant changes after that awful first year as GM, under the guise of “well let’s see what happens, and hope that no one gets injured”, he’d be rightly crucified

– No way that would have been acceptable IMO. And not what a good GM would do: he wasn’t hired to dither around and wait for perfect health season from his lineup: injuries happen.

– Plus LT you’ve criticized the GM for not doing enough last year: can’t have it both ways…

I feel bad for those who aren’t enjoying these past 28 months as an oiler fan, especially after watching the org dig itself into the worst situation imaginable. Laughing stock of the league, no team toughness, no team identity, voted worst destination by the players etc… Watching the Mcdavid effect play out, and watching Chia turn over this roster, and watching a masterful communicator and team builder like Mclellan has been exhilarating…sure we’ve bled some value and our coach’s systems aren’t perfect, sure a few contracts are a bit bloated, but if you’re genuinely not enjoying this time as an oiler fan you never will, maybe seek joy elsewhere.

I had a lot to say about your comment, but I deleted it..You are entitled to your opinion. No matter how many times you repeat your opinion, however, it is still your opinion, not fact. And don’t point at the standings to make your opinions somehow seem factual.

My guess is you’ll see Connor and Leon together more on the road where MacLellan doesn’t get last change.

At home, where he can run out a Draisaitl at C line against softer opps, I think that will be the preference.

TMac’s endgame is to build 2 lines that can go strength vs strength against anyone, but imo he’ll ease Leon into that transition by controlling the OPP matchups and to a lesser extent the zone starts, in the beginning.

Ironically, this is where Leon’s advantage over RNH really lies. Not only does he produce more points, but quite likely MacLellan will trust him more to take a defensive zone faceoff over Nuge. Eventually that FO % deficiency is going to cost RNH some icetime.

kgo:
I feel bad for those who aren’t enjoying these past 28 months as an oiler fan, especially after watching the org dig itself into the worst situation imaginable.Laughing stock of the league, no team toughness, no team identity, voted worst destination by the players etc… Watching the Mcdavid effect play out, and watching Chia turn over this roster, and watching a masterful communicator and team builder like Mclellan has been exhilarating…sure we’ve bled some value and our coach’s systems aren’t perfect, sure a few contracts are a bit bloated, but if you’re genuinely not enjoying this time as an oiler fan you never will, maybe seek joy elsewhere.

In terms of enjoying the good times, I would say Chiarelli and MacLellan have created an environment now where, outside the G position, there is legitimate competition at every position on the hockey club outside 1C and 1D.

Compare that to the previous regime where there wasn’t enough depth to facilitate true competition and thus, there was minimal threat of vets losing their place on the depth chart or getting sent down.

What this all adds up to now is accountability. Icetime is now earned not gifted. Massive culture shift for this organization and way way way overdue.

– Thanks for that: What is my opinion in your mind, that differs greatly from your opinion?

– I tend to rely more on actual results, to be sure, as a proxy for the outcome of actions, then try to figure out why the outcome occured.

– It’s fun for me to form opinions based on a whole bunch of data, insight, logic, inferences, hearing what others say, my background, and being a fan.I’m not absolute, but result matter a lot to me

This is all fine. But it is conjecture. You can make insinuations based on McDavid’s comments, then walk them back, a la DJT saying he didn’t name anyone in Arizona he disagrees with specifically, but LT is allowed to say value was lost in Hall for Larsson without fingers pointed at standings to make his opinion less valid than anyone else’s. That’s all.

You have opinions backed up with supporting evidence. LT has a differing opinion based on other evidence.

Looking at that 50 man list, after Draisaitl on RW, I think we find our biggest question mark of the roster. I don’t see another name that could definitely step in today to fill in that top RW spot should Todd want to move Drai to his own line. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if the Eberle move is praised/simply forgotten about/or to at least some degree regrettable as the season carries on. In my mind, I don’t think players in Strome’s position are all that rare. A young, 1st rd draft pick who has failed to find consistency at the NHL level after at least one decent season. In other words Strome or a similar player like Strome would likely have been around to trade for next summer as well, so there shouldn’t have been a lot of pressure to pull the trigger this summer. I believe there are enough potential goal scorers on the roster that someone will likely click as a 2nd line RW, or that they will do it by committee, but then again there is no guarantee. The closest thing to a guarantee was traded away in a hurry this summer to save 3.5 mill, an amount that is probably less than what Chia would have to spend, if necessary, to find a legit top 6 RW come trade deadline. Time will tell but I think the Eberle trade probably happened a year too soon. I don’t think its enough to ruin the teams playoff chances or anything, but I do think it makes their road a little tougher and a little less certain than it needed to be. That said, I am looking forward to seeing what happens and for someone to rise to the occasion.

LT, are you really going back to the Reinhart imbroglio/awfulness in coming posts?
By the way — Stauffer may say Ericksson-Ek was who the Oilers had their eye on, but that presupposes Barzal and Kyle Connor never falling to 16. Pre-draft, Oiler insider info to him would have been along the lines of reasonable expectations, and it was not reasonable to believe for Barzal and Connor would fall to 16.

I turned the page on 10 years of losing, and the decisions/theories/strategies of those bad managerial/coaching groups to go along with it: all puck moving D but no room for Petry – for balanced D pairs with offense and defense, three scoring lines – for line balance and defensive/PK specialists, Hall – RNH – Eberle on the rush – for the cycle game that wins in the postseason when offense dries up.

The management/coaching group in place is vetted and has Cups to their names (BTW: McLellan was an assistant in Detroit when they won a few) and despite overreaction on move optics and fan assumptions of player trade/skills value aside, they are doing a great job.

High paid, one dimensional, scoring wingers have discounted value in the NHL. The fact that we cleared Eberle’s $6MM, and got a RHC with pedigree, versatility, youth, size, team control and familiarity is a major win in my books.

I’m not trying to slag Eberle here, I absolutely loved the kid in his first couple years, his first NHL goal is one of my greatest fan memories of all time…but I would argue that Ebs’ might be the worst forechecker in the entire NHL…and in Tmac’s system the wingers need to be strong forecheckers. In Tmac’s system wingers are foot soldiers, pawns, or backup centres who are big enough to forecheck.

This might be the reason RNH hasn’t been put on the wing these past two seasons.

kgo:
High paid, one dimensional, scoring wingers have discounted value in the NHL.The fact that we cleared Eberle’s $6MM, and got a RHC with pedigree, versatility, youth, size, team control and familiarity is a major win in my books.

I’m not trying to slag Eberle here, I absolutely loved the kid in his first couple years, his first NHL goal is one of my greatest fan memories of all time…but I would argue that Ebs’ might be the worst forechecker in the entire NHL…and in Tmac’s system the wingers need to be strong forecheckers.

This might be the reason RNH hasn’t been put on the wing these past two seasons.

This,

and since I don’t disagree with the sentiment that by September of this year the Taylor Hall talk should probably wait until next summer when we don’t have much else to talk about again, I will just ask this one question.

In his year with LA, Lucics GF60 was 3.12, so its not like scoring when Lucic is on ice was never there. I think part of it might be trying to fit with a guy like McDavid and his speed, part of it low on ice shooting %.

Great post LT! I was surprised when I posted those quotes in the last thread, and not much discussion.
– Here’s what I said at the end:
– Part of the radio silence though IMO, is that it doesn’t fit the narrative of some who feel

I just found out what he said.

I take it as “great hockey player says great things about the team he signed with 8 years and gave him $100 to do it”

I take it as “great hockey player says great things about the team he signed with 8 years and gave him $100 to do it”

If he didn’t say good things it would probably prompted discussion.

– McD would not have signed for max years and a slight discount if :

a) the Ballsy moves didn’t work
b) he was in a locker-room with guys “who aren’t quality”
c) they had another year like his first year, and not make playoffs
d) he didn’t actually believe Chia had game, and he respected McL

– Chia has made some misteps as all GM’s have, but if he screwed up McD’s first few years, he would not have been able to sign him (and Drai) to 8 years.

– that’s why I don’t believe it was an option as some have suggested to wait and see how the other team did without injuries, after sucking: Chia had seen enough, he traded away some big pieces, and has brought others in

– I tend to rely more on actual results, to be sure, as a proxy for the outcome of actions, then try to figure out why the outcome occured.

– It’s fun for me to form opinions based on a whole bunch of data, insight, logic, inferences, hearing what others say, my background, and being a fan.I’m not absolute, but result matter a lot to me

A major issue with this, as was noted, is the injuries.

Last year the Oilers top 6 forwards and top 4 D missed a total of 20 GP. That’s an insanely low number.

In 15-16 all of McDavid, RNH, Eberle, Pouliot, Klefbom, Schultz and Davidson (who were the Oilers actual top 4 D??) all missed significant time. Something like 170 man games lost (on average 1 top 6 forward AND 1 top 4 D out of the lineup every single game).

I’m not trying to say the Oilers didn’t genuinely improve year over year, but that’s a massive swing in injuries. To look at the results and give Chia and his new personnel all the credit just isn’t reasonable imo.

I agree with you to a point but I think Eberle is a polarizing figure of player preference rather than actual performance. Essentially, especially in blue colorville Canada, we prefer a physical brand of hockey and put a lot of value on blue color traits such as a willingness to go into battle, fight, and wear your emotions on your sleeve. Therefore we become rather offended when players don’t have an acceptable amount of these traits and view the absence of them as a weakness. We then incorrectly place more negative weight on “soft skill” when there is limited statistical evidence to suggest that these “soft skill” players have any less ability in terms of possession than our preferred physical players. For example, based on the eye test, we are likely to have more room for a guy who engages in battles over a guy who shies away from contact even though the gutless coward guy generally gets the puck moving the right direction more often and is also far more likely to score then the physical guy.

As it relates to Eberle, suggesting that he might be the worst fore checker in the entire NHL would also suggest that his line mates throughout his career must have been extremely good to make up for his weakness. How else do we explain that his career Corsi is above 50% (his three best seasons being his last three). Don’t get me wrong, Corsi has major limitation but it does provide some objective evidence as to whom is carrying the play. If Eberle was as bad as he is perceived, his possession numbers should reflect this, but they do not. In fact, of the top 10 RW scorers last year, their average Corsi 5vs5 was 52.18% with a 57.3% ozone start. Comparatively, Eberle sported a 52.8% Corsi while only starting in the ozone 55.5% of the time. Had he cashed in on his usual shooting rate, he would be, pretty well on par in most statistical categories, including possession, with the top RWers in the league.

So perhaps we value this type of “one dimensional” player less but its likely more to do with our preference than actual player performance and on ice results. I think we simply cannot tolerate players who do not have a perceivable battle level. But I also think there is nothing wrong with this. Wanting a certain level of compete in all your players is an understandable desire and likely has many intangible benefits. I just don’t think its fair to point out players weaknesses as fact when it is largely based on player preference and subjectively valued intangibles.

Great post LT! I was surprised when I posted those quotes in the last thread, and not much discussion.
– Here’s what I said at the end:
– Part of the radio silence though IMO, is that it doesn’t fit the narrative of some who feel

I just found out what he said.

I take it as “great hockey player says great things about the team he signed with 8 years and gave him $100 to do it”

If he didn’t say good things it would probably prompted discussion.

My sentiments exactly. 99% of most hockey player interviews are pretty pointless (IMO) for that reason. They’re essentially scripted, most players say the same general things about their teams after a win or loss, for example. When players go off script (like with Perron, Souray, Yakupov, Hall as recent examples) then there’s something to talk about. Otherwise it’s business as usual.

Last year the Oilers top 6 forwards and top 4 D missed a total of 20 GP. That’s an insanely low number.

In 15-16 all of McDavid, RNH, Eberle, Pouliot, Klefbom, Schultz and Davidson (who were the Oilers actual top 4 D??) all missed significant time. Something like 170 man games lost (on average 1 top 6 forward AND 1 top 4 D out of the lineup every single game).

I’m not trying to say the Oilers didn’t genuinely improve year over year, but that’s a massive swing in injuries. To look at the results and give Chia and his new personnel all the credit just isn’t reasonable imo.

This rarely gets taken into consideration when comparing 15-16 to 16-17, unfortunately.

Do we have any concern about a bit of over-confidence and complacency leading to a slow start?

I know, I know, McDavid is very driven and he says all the right things about having not accomplished anything, etc., but lets not forget these guys have had media training and, at the end of the day, we are talking about young millionaires that know they are the shit.

We have a bit of a softish schedule to start the season and I’m worried about them reading their own press clippings, SC odds, etc. – I’d like to think they start off the season knowing a playoff spot is not guaranteed and hit the ice running.

I’m not sure what I’ve missed such that the captain of a hockey team praising that same team leads to such tension in the day’s posts… Is it as cold and rainy in Edmonton as it is here in Winnipeg today?

The Oilers are better than they used to be. In the pie charts which I assume are inside everybody’s brains, it seems we each have a different group of pie pieces representing the reasons for that improvement.

For me? In order: McDavid was healthy, which more than outweighed Hall’s departure. Talbot was awesome and played a ton. The mortals were healthy too. Draisaitl was a terrific #1RW. Larsson was a big improvement to the defense.

That’s not the same thing as thinking the Hall/Larsson trade was a win or that Russell is great.

The previous sentence is not the same as saying Russell is useless or that I’ll never get over the Hall trade.

Your mileage may vary and, of course, you might not give a **** what I think. I do want to be a voice that says “things are going pretty well / there are valid criticisms available / I’m glad when Edmonton does well / I want it to continue.”

and since I don’t disagree with the sentiment that by September of this year the Taylor Hall talk should probably wait until next summer when we don’t have much else to talk about again, I will just ask this one question.

How is Taylor Hall making out on all the top player lists these days?

A lot of this debate will stop when people stop taking shots at the player for no apparent reason. You really should stop.

How could the numbers be so close in one view (PuckIQ WOWY) and so far apart in another view (your breakdown of lines)? And do the PuckIQ numbers, if correct, suggest CMD’s offense died with Lucic when compared to Maroon?

I mostly agree with you, but I’m only talking about Chia and Mclellan’s preferences for player type as it relates to their systems. You’re talking about fan preferences. Eberle is a fantastic possession player, and generally makes good plays with the puck to retain possess and generate shots (as evidenced by his corsi).

In terms of being the league’s worst forechecker, and I’m basing this solely on my eye test, he never separates an opponent from the puck with his body, in either zone, he never wins puck battles along the boards, in either zone, he never rushes an opposition dman into throwing a puck away to brace for contact, he never dumps a puck and wins the race to it (a la Moreau), he rarely even strips pucks because he’s either shoved away or his opponent is too strong on his stick. The only time he seems to earn takeaways is intercepting the odd pass, or curtailing a rebound and turning it up ice.

Eberle has always had very good linemates, Taylor, then Lucic, certainly helped his corsi, i’m not sure how that helps your argument.

anjinsan:
LT, are you really going back to the Reinhart imbroglio/awfulness in coming posts?
By the way — Stauffer may say Ericksson-Ekwas who the Oilers had their eye on, but that presupposes Barzal and Kyle Connor never falling to 16.Pre-draft,Oiler insider info to him would have been along the lines of reasonable expectations, and it was not reasonable to believe for Barzal and Connor would fall to 16.

I think Reinhart remains a player of interest for the general manager, so it’s fair game. I hold no ill will toward the player but this is a conversation worth having in my opinion.

Paajarvi would be a great option if they could pick him up for nothing on waivers. He was 69th among forwards last season in 5-on-5 shots per 60 with 8.093, and even higher in primary pts per 60 with 1.686. He’s big and very fast and would be a nice compliment to Puljujarvi and Jokinen. They both might help him elevate his game. I think he’s a solid gamble right now.

How could the numbers be so close in one view (PuckIQ WOWY) and so far apart in another view (your breakdown of lines)? And do the PuckIQ numbers, if correct, suggest CMD’s offense died with Lucic when compared to Maroon?

I think that’s the EN goal bug again.

NST has 97-27 with 22 5v5 goals
Puckiq has 97-27 with 26 5v5 goals

Will check with G.

Good data point on how just a goals can significantly change resulting rates.

Just looking at the opening night rosters from 2 years to today ….. It’s Music! So much more depth at all positions ….

One thing we can say about Taylor Hall, is that he has had the misfortune of playing on some crappy teams …. His Oilers teams had no depth at all .. Then he gets traded to one of the worst teams in the League .. New Jersey will be brutal again this year … No matter how good one player is, he cannot overcome a roster filled with holes … Does anyone think New Jersey will make the playoffs this year? I think Hall will do what he always does, produce .8 ppg with little help around him …

As for the Oilers, there is no reason they shouldn’t be a Top Team right out of the gates. Making the playoffs is so tough now, but this squad should make them barring a big injury to #97. Even then, I think they are more equipped than ever to be competitive for a short time without #97.

OriginalPouzar:
Do we have any concern about a bit of over-confidence and complacency leading to a slow start?

======

In the summer of 2006 I was only reading the MSM and there was overwhelming confidence that the Oilers were a force, even without Pronger; K Lowe (who I had always assumed this site was named after) was handing out inappropriate contracts; and the sky fell in. This looks a more resilient and grounded operation but the mood seems very similar to those times. We shall see.

Its literally a breath of fresh air to share comments with this crew as opposed to some other sites. You can actually make an argument and even if someone disagrees, they do so with respect and logic. You are probably spot on with Chia and TM and their preference. I also don’t disagree with your eye test with Eberle either but many of that relates to physics. He just doesn’t have the strength or size to win physical battles so he has to make up for that in skill. Which I think he does to a large extent but its just eclipsed by the attention his short comings get. Basically, if all everyone is talking about is Eberle’s soft skills and all the eye test things you mention, well it becomes that much more of a focus when you watch, and in Eberle’s case, that is all many were able to see by the end. Every lost board battle, every missed one-timer opportunity, every time he gets pushed off the puck, is magnified especially as he didn’t produce at the same rate we are use to. Yet, he may make a dozen skilled plays in a game look routine but they are not noticed, dismissed, or quickly forgotten.

Anyway, I just think he has to be compensating for these short-coming in some way in order to level out his Corsi over his career. Yes, his linemates have been very good in general, but so is the case of most 1st line players and its not like his linemates take a massive spike up when he isn’t playing with them. Interestingly, RNH who is given some cred for his two-way play has averaged 44 takeaways/year while Eberle has averaged 41/year. Another interesting stat is that Eberle has about the same amount of giveaways/season as Lucic, a guy who has a renowned reputation for not being pushed off the puck or losing physical battles. This leads me to believe there are many paths, including subtle ones, to the same result. We just have a clear preference for physical play which is way more entertaining and appreciated by the the eye test as well as strongly associated, in our minds, with effort.

Eberle is two injuries past the player he use to be, the return value was dwindling by the minute, especially after such a dreadful personal playoff performance. Not sure what people were expecting for return.. this fanbase would freak if they traded a young RHC for a winger that’s undersized suffering from significant injuries to his shot mechanics for a 50pt RHC prospect lol

25gp 18pts
25gp 19pts

Both finished the year nicely, with one getting a hat trick against the nucks to end it.

You don’t take the younger, bigger, cheaper middle man every time?

He’s off the books next summer

The return on Hall was brutal, but whoever was the main voice pushing for Larsson.. gold star, stud finder. His playoff performances this past spring were roaming on another level.

kgo:
I feel bad for those who aren’t enjoying these past 28 months as an oiler fan, especially after watching the org dig itself into the worst situation imaginable.Laughing stock of the league, no team toughness, no team identity, voted worst destination by the players etc… Watching the Mcdavid effect play out, and watching Chia turn over this roster, and watching a masterful communicator and team builder like Mclellan has been exhilarating…sure we’ve bled some value and our coach’s systems aren’t perfect, sure a few contracts are a bit bloated, but if you’re genuinely not enjoying this time as an oiler fan you never will, maybe seek joy elsewhere.

russ99:
I turned the page on 10 years of losing, and the decisions/theories/strategies of those bad managerial/coaching groups to go along with it: all puck moving D but no room for Petry – for balanced D pairs with offense and defense, three scoring lines – for line balance and defensive/PK specialists, Hall – RNH – Eberle on the rush – for the cycle game that wins in the postseason when offense dries up.

The management/coaching group in place is vetted and has Cups to their names (BTW: McLellan was an assistant in Detroit when they won a few) and despite overreaction on move optics and fan assumptions of player trade/skills value aside, they are doing a great job.

Chiarelli had one more playoff win when BOS won the Cup than Lowe did in 06.

Kinger_Oil.redux: – McD would not have signed for max years and a slight discount if :

a) the Ballsy moves didn’t work
b) he was in a locker-room with guys “who aren’t quality”
c) they had another year like his first year, and not make playoffs
d) he didn’t actually believe Chia had game, and he respected McL

– Chia has made some misteps as all GM’s have, but if he screwed up McD’s first few years, he would not have been able to sign him (and Drai) to 8 years.

– that’s why I don’t believe it was an option as some have suggested to wait and see how the other team did without injuries, after sucking: Chia had seen enough, he traded away some big pieces, and has brought others in

This is entirely supposition on your part.

This is why this stuff is anathema for me.

You don’t know.

You (not just you, but everyone who likes to talk about this stuff) state their opinions as fact.

It’s not fact.

It’s supposition.

I can’t argue any of it because there is nothing to argue when there isn’t any facts.

jm363561: In the summer of 2006 I was only reading the MSM and there was overwhelming confidence that the Oilers were a force, even without Pronger; K Lowe (who I had always assumed this site was named after) was handing out inappropriate contracts; and the sky fell in. This looks a more resilient and grounded operation but the mood seems very similar to those times. We shall see.

I think there is a big difference between then and now.

The 2006 team was an OK, but balanced, hockey team – aside from Pronger, there was no real star power. Goaltending was an issue and they barely snuck in to the playoff and went on a roll riding a hot goaltender and Pronger.

The next year Pronger was gone and Roli was, once again, Roli.

An OK team that lost its best player.

What he have today is an actual star power team with some nice secondary pieces and some nice up and coming pieces.

I’m not worried about this team in general as they are an actual good team – I’m just a bit worried about complacency and overconfidence and “resting on their laurels” to start the year.

That’s the thing when you partition the data. If you find below average results in one partition then you have to find above average results in the other partition. The good and bad parts have to cancel out to arrive back at the average. That’s why we want more data and it’s called the law of large numbers. Each observation of a random variable is its mean plus an error term. The more data you have, the more the independent error terms tend to cancel out. The CMD effect is so strong that you need less data to detect it. But that’s not always the case when you’re dealing with combinations involving other players. So, in the absence of a compelling reason, I tend to use all available data when evaluating a player, especially when the data is limited. You run into all kinds of weirdness when samples shrink. I believe the CMD-Lucic-JP line was crazy, crazy good in limited minutes. Then JP spends the second half of the season in Bakersfield.

jm363561: In the summer of 2006 I was only reading the MSM and there was overwhelming confidence that the Oilers were a force, even without Pronger; K Lowe (who I had always assumed this site was named after) was handing out inappropriate contracts; and the sky fell in. This looks a more resilient and grounded operation but the mood seems very similar to those times. We shall see.

That 2005 team was a dandy even before the Pronger deal, but 44 made it something else again. I’m hard on Kevin Lowe for his summe 2006 decisions, but the cap at that time was a new deal. Lowe rewarded his soldiers and it cost him. Peter Chiarelli did the identical thing in 2011 after the SC win.

The key is paying your support troops only what they are worth and spending the big dollars on true difference makers. The only deal this summer i have an issue with is Russell’s, and even then it’s length as opposed to dollars. we’ll see.

OriginalPouzar:
Do we have any concern about a bit of over-confidence and complacency leading to a slow start?

I know, I know, McDavid is very driven and he says all the right things about having not accomplished anything, etc., but lets not forget these guys have had media training and, at the end of the day, we are talking about young millionaires that know they are the shit.

We have a bit of a softish schedule to start the season and I’m worried about them reading their own press clippings, SC odds, etc. – I’d like to think they start off the season knowing a playoff spot is not guaranteed and hit the ice running.

My biggest concern is only 2 Actual Top 4 NHL Dmen and one 4-5, one really good sophomore, and Nurse/Gryba on D to start.

Last year they had 3 Actual Top 4 Dmen to start and that’s a big, big deal.

Showerhead:
I’m not sure what I’ve missed such that the captain of a hockey team praising that same team leads to such tension in the day’s posts… Is it as cold and rainy in Edmonton as it is here in Winnipeg today?

The Oilers are better than they used to be. In the pie charts which I assume are inside everybody’s brains, it seems we each have a different group of pie pieces representing the reasons for that improvement.

For me? In order: McDavid was healthy, which more than outweighed Hall’s departure. Talbot was awesome and played a ton. The mortals were healthy too. Draisaitl was a terrific #1RW. Larsson was a big improvement to the defense.

That’s not the same thing as thinking the Hall/Larsson trade was a win or that Russell is great.

The previous sentence is not the same as saying Russell is useless or that I’ll never get over the Hall trade.

Your mileage may vary and, of course, you might not give a **** what I think. I do want to be a voice that says “things are going pretty well / there are valid criticisms available / I’m glad when Edmonton does well / I want it to continue.”

You (not just you, but everyone who likes to talk about this stuff) state their opinions as fact.

It’s not fact.

It’s supposition.

I can’t argue any of it because there is nothing to argue when there isn’t any facts.

You are absolutely right – there is nothing in that post except for speculation and opinion, however, its likely reasoned opinion.

Can we have conversations based on reasoned, while non-provable, opinions? As long as the opiners are open to the “fact” that their opinion is just that “opinion” and not fact.

I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.

I’m sure I’ll be told that all opinions are welcome although I do sometime feel like the opinion-based posters are less highly regarded as pretty much all conversations turn to complex factual/statistical analysis.

Georges: That’s the thing when you partition the data. If you find below average results in one partition then you have to find above average results in the other partition. The good and bad parts have to cancel out to arrive back at the average. That’s why we want more data and it’s called the law of large numbers. Each observation of a random variable is its mean plus an error term. The more data you have, the more the independent error terms tend to cancel out. The CMD effect is so strong that you need less data to detect it. But that’s not always the case when you’re dealing with combinations involving other players. So, in the absence of a compelling reason, I tend to use all available data when evaluating a player, especially when the data is limited. You run into all kinds of weirdness when samples shrink. I believe the CMD-Lucic-JP line was crazy, crazy good in limited minutes. Then JP spends the second half of the season in Bakersfield.

I agree with all that.

The most interesting thing about that data is that it shows 29 and 14 were interchangeable on 97’s wing and the massive disparity in valuation.

Woodguy v2.0:
I can’t argue any of it because there is nothing to argue when there isn’t any facts.

– Thanks for letting me know!

– As for McD: if he didn’t like like the way the team was going, I doubt he signs for 8 years. Sure that’s not a fact, it’s my opinion. If this was a gong show team like 2 years ago, I suspect McD signs for less years, and tells management: “show me”.

– Your comment was you think he’s just towing the company line, because he got paid: there’s more behind it than that IMO.

– You can’t selectively have it both ways: state your opinion, then slam mine as not worthy of discussion

– again, if you don’t like the way I reason or how I form opinions and state things: good for you

P.S.: Lowe can’t hold a candle to Chia as GM, contrary to what you seem to suggest, despite having a better GAA in the one playoff run Lowe was GM for: Lowe sucked except the one year he had Pronger. Chia’s background and rise to GM is impressive, on merit. His teams were competitive for many years: Lowe merely an OBC guy, who back stabbed Low and was gifted head-coach, then GM, and never held accountable, then got gifted another role: he bleeds Oil though, there’s that

OriginalPouzar: You are absolutely right – there is nothing in that post except for speculation and opinion, however, its likely reasoned opinion.

Can we have conversations based on reasoned, while non-provable, opinions?As long as the opiners are open to the “fact” that their opinion is just that “opinion” and not fact.

I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.

I’m sure I’ll be told that all opinions are welcome although I do sometime feel like the opinion-based posters are less highly regarded as pretty much all conversations turn to complex factual/statistical analysis.

Sure you can have conversations on opinion.

I don’t like to because there is rarely a resolution.

Kinger asked why non of the regulars had chimed in and I’m pretty sure that it’s because there really isn’t much to discuss.

Because one person sees validation of their narratives in a statement doesn’t mean that others see the same thing or that it’s worth discussing for other people.

Not everyone likes to dig into the minutea of the results.

Not everyone like to discuss the fluffy stuff like what is said in the media by a very saavy young man.

The best thing McDavid said was that he doesn’t care if the Leafs finish 30th and that’s not getting any run here because no one can turn it into a proof for their narrative.

P.S.: Lowe can’t hold a candle to Chia as GM, contrary to what you seem to suggest, despite having a better GAA in the one playoff run Lowe was GM for: Lowe sucked except the one year he had Pronger. Chia’s background and rise to GM is impressive, on merit. His teams were competitive for many years: Lowe merely an OBC guy, who back stabbed Low and was gifted head-coach, then GM, and never held accountable, then got gifted another role: he bleeds Oil though, there’s that]

At no time did I say Lowe is as good as Peter.

I was pointing out the tenuous line between “Won A Cup” and “Failure”

It’s can be as thin as the difference between having a .940 goalie and MAB being out of position on one play.

OriginalPouzar: You are absolutely right – there is nothing in that post except for speculation and opinion, however, its likely reasoned opinion.

Can we have conversations based on reasoned, while non-provable, opinions?As long as the opiners are open to the “fact” that their opinion is just that “opinion” and not fact.

I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.

I’m sure I’ll be told that all opinions are welcome although I do sometime feel like the opinion-based posters are less highly regarded as pretty much all conversations turn to complex factual/statistical analysis.

– Thanks, I’m in the same boat – Stats and the interpretation of them are not facts either

– I find often the conclusions that are made based on stats in here are not warranted, or off-base, or make the wrong inference, or are too reliant on small sample size, or don’t consider variance, or are misunderstood, or bias elected, or parsed in a way that is convenient, or the numbers behind them just wrong.

– That doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy reading the opinions formed by those who interpret stats

I like seeing the Opinions and Love seeing different Stats. I do Think an Opinion backed up by Stats has more Value. Some stats posted on here have made me reconsider and / or change my “opinion”. Simple opinions on their own do make me think but rarely change my opinion.

There will always be debate because we don’t have “stats” on how to construct a Stanley Cup Winning roster. We have ideas, thoughts and opinions but there is no metric or one specific formula.

IMO PC is on the right path to building a Cup Winner by making sweeping changes to an organization that badly needed it. But until Stanley is delivered, it is simply an opinion. Once (If) Stanley is delivered
then it will be fact. If not it becomes an incorrect opinion!

The most interesting thing about that data is that it shows 29 and 14 were interchangeable on 97’s wing and the massive disparity in valuation.

But are you sure the failure of Lucic-Eberle to click offensively is on Lucic? Eberle is the better offensive performer over his career. He put up big numbers early and he put up those numbers on very bad teams. Lucic has put up weaker numbers but he’s been kinda steady and he’s been productive while playing for strong teams. And over the last 3 seasons, they’re not that far apart on points per game (0.69 for Ebs and 0.61 for Lucic).

godot had good observations on their struggles together. They’re both late to arrive on a forecheck and TMac’s systems are heavy on the forecheck. They both need someone else to gain possession or get there first while they try to get set up in the slot. I don’t know if TMac saw that or if he cared.

I’m really curious to see if Lucic can return to his 5v5 scoring levels and keep contributing 5v4. That would be ridiculous. My thinking is that Lucic will be better offensively without Eberle, either with CMD or Drai and a fast winger (not as optimistic of his chances with RNH). And, hopefully, he still has luck on the defensive side.

“Can we have conversations based on reasoned, while non-provable, opinions?As long as the opiners are open to the “fact” that their opinion is just that “opinion” and not fact.

I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.

I’m sure I’ll be told that all opinions are welcome although I do sometime feel like the opinion-based posters are less highly regarded as pretty much all conversations turn to complex factual/statistical analysis.”

I will say going into this that I worry I will come off sounding like a complete jerk.

Not all opinion is created equal. Not all opiners are of equal value. That is not to say that opinion doesn’t have value, sometimes a great deal of value.

The value of opinion lies partly in the volume of the offerings and partly in the skills of the person offering the opinion and mostly in the conversation that ensues. Often the opinions here are exceedingly well thought out and presented in a highly entertaining way. The responses to the offered opinions are often as informative and entertaining as the original posts.

Sadly, occasionally the opinions offered here are presented as statements of fact and truthfully end up having an abusive tone. It is like they can’t think beyond, “I am right and you are wrong”. They also come off as poorly thought out and intellectually lazy. I’d say, based purely on my limited observation I think it is possible that you are right that this leads to some bias against opinion based posters.

It is however worth remembering that our factual statistics are tools we use to buttress an opinion and what we are then offering is more akin to a hypothesis. But that doesn’t mean it is any more “right”, “true”, valid” or “valuable” than someone else’s opinion. Just as some posters use opinions and rhetorical tricks as tools to bash others there are stats based posters who do the same thing.

Personally I value the opinion posts highly and value those who offer them. I often find ideas for research projects in opinion based posts. I also frequently find my own view of hockey and how it works challenged by others opinions, even some of the most outrageous ones, maybe especially the most outrageous ones. This enriches my own thinking and view of the game and probably does the same thing for many other readers.

I want more opinion, from more posters, and not less. Of course I’d also like more stats and math and video analysis and coaching theory so what do I know.

I just want you to know that I personally highly value your opinion and look forward to reading your thoughts.

Georges: But are you sure the failure of Lucic-Eberle to click offensively is on Lucic? Eberle is the better offensive performer over his career. He put up big numbers early and he put up those numbers on very bad teams. Lucic has put up weaker numbers but he’s been kinda steady and he’s been productive while playing for strong teams. And over the last 3 seasons, they’re not that far apart on points per game (0.69 for Ebs and 0.61 for Lucic).

godot had good observations on their struggles together. They’re both late to arrive on a forecheck and TMac’s systems are heavy on the forecheck. They both need someone else to gain possession or get there first while they try to get set up in the slot. I don’t know if TMac saw that or if he cared.

I’m really curious to see if Lucic can return to his 5v5 scoring levels and keep contributing 5v4. That would be ridiculous. My thinking is that Lucic will be better offensively without Eberle, either with CMD or Drai and a fast winger (not as optimistic of his chances with RNH). And, hopefully, he still has luck on the defensive side.

Seeing as 27-97 scored the same with either 29 or 14 would your same critique of 14 apply to 29?

I hope 27 improves too. He’s an Oiler for better or worse for at least the next 4 years.

I agree that 27 will be better without 14 and I talked about it with LT on his show when 27-93-14 were struggling in January.

27 and 14 play very differently in the ozone.

27 puts pucks where 14 doesn’t go by instinct and viceversa.

2-93-14 were great on the cycle for 3 men who are not big and a big part of that was knowing where to put the puck for the next guy.

93 was also dynamite at the incidental interference that SJS and ANA excel at to spring the puck carrier.

“Can we have conversations based on reasoned, while non-provable, opinions?As long as the opiners are open to the “fact” that their opinion is just that “opinion” and not fact.

I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.

I’m sure I’ll be told that all opinions are welcome although I do sometime feel like the opinion-based posters are less highly regarded as pretty much all conversations turn to complex factual/statistical analysis.”

I will say going into this that I worry I will come off sounding like a complete jerk.

Not all opinion is created equal. Not all opiners are of equal value. That is not to say that opinion doesn’t have value, sometimes a great deal of value.

That’s all true.

I think a better way of stating my thought would have been:

“We present a fact and then we can argue with our opinions (supported by evidence) about what caused the facts”

When Kinger (or me or anyone) states his opinion as the base fact to argue around, its worthless or at the very least its not worth arguing about because there is no common ground agreed upon.

When you can state a fact like :

“EDM was 9th in 5v5 goals against in 16/17 and 29th in 15/16 but I think the reason for the improvement was all Talbot”

You have a base fact to return to inside of the argument.

Oilers’ 5v5 goals against happened, its not in dispute.

Why it happened, on the other hand, can be subject to wild dispute, but both sides must ultimately agree on the base fact of the 5v5 goals against because its real and it happened%

Similarly, when you (Vor) talk about the draft and how teams do/do not draft better than others, you come with a data point and then expound up on it with your opinion (backed up with facts)

When Kinger or anyone else starts with an opinion and then layers more opinion on top of it, there is no root fact that both parties can agree upon and then there is no basis for conversation. Which is probably why there was such little conversation about Kinger’s topic in the first place.

McDavid said a thing.

Any non-stated motivation or narrative is pure speculation and that usually doesn’t get legs around here.

I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.

I’ll agree that Eberle became a victim of confirmation bias every time he was out-muscled, out battled, especially during the playoffs, under the proverbial microscope. However I have to disagree with your interpretation of the Physics. Kinetic energy plays a bigger role than momentum in an inelastic collision, meaning the velocity of a player entering a collision is exponentially more important than his mass i.e. Torres, Raffi

I wish we could watch every one of Eberle’s and Lucic’s giveaways in a highlight package, because I think they would be polar opposites. Eberle’s GV’s are likely as a result of being out-muscled, and Lucic’s are likely as a result of making a blind/dumb play with the puck…Ironic because each player would rarely commit the other’s sins.

“I love this site – its an absolute wealth of information but sometimes I feel like there is no place for conversation that is based on anything but verifiable, and often highly complex, factual statistics.”

As you know I was quoting original pouzar when I posted that and I added I would like more math and stats not less. I agree with you that statistics probably are at the heart of no more than 5% of the posts, but you know me, now I am going to have to go and count all those damn posts and find out the real number. I certainly miss the statistical discussions – like the one you are having with Georges a great deal. I miss many of the statistically oriented posters of the past.

That said, I mean it, I find real value in the opinions expressed here. Some of it is admittedly entertainment value. But I am serious, I love that some of the posters here have not only changed how I think about the game but given me ideas for new research projects.

For example, earlier in this thread BTrain, not a poster I am familiar with, posted one of the most thought provoking things I have read in some time. It was an attempt at explaining why we over value physically dominant players and undervalue ones who avoid physical contact if they can. It was more sociological and psychological than mathematical but it made me wonder if there was a way to present that same argument mathematically and possibly visually.

KGO’s responses have enriched BTrain’s original post in fascinating ways. This is why I come here. Two posters I don’t know are having a truly fascinating discussion that has nothing to do with numbers. Meanwhile you and Georges are having a fascinating conversation that has everything to do with numbers. Viva la difference!

I want more opinions not less.

I want more statistics not less.

I’d really like more opinions that were supported by statistics and other “facts”.

– When I used the term”you don’t get to…” I can see how it was taken literally, although I didn’t mean it as such, nor was I suggesting I’m the police.I was just using a term to express a point

– And I don’t see how my clear “opinions” can be caracterized as being presented as facts.

– Anyway, I’m not going a good job contributing given all this.My bad. I like to debate, but I clearly piss off a lot of people here.I’ll hopefully figure out a better way to communicate my opinions

You trolled 3 treads trying to get someone to respond to your McDavid thing and when someone gives you a reason for the lack of responses you lost your shit.

As for facts/opinons, Vor is right.

There is no template for everyone.

I was stated what I prefer and why I generally stay out of the “fuzzy” topics where its all only opinion.

I didn’t tell you how to post, only why you weren’t getting much of a response from some posters.

You stated:

– I was surprised when I posted those quotes in the last thread, and not much discussion.
– Here’s what I said at the end:
– Part of the radio silence though IMO, is that it doesn’t fit the narrative of some who feel:
a) Chia is a poor trader who bleeds value
b) McL is a mediocre systems based coach who hasn’t won a cup
c) Trading Hall for Larsson wasn’t a win for the team: they got better because of other things only….

I know I didn’t respond because nothing McDavid said would change my opinion on any of it and you know this.