The Daily Prospectus

The Long Road

One of the criticisms occasionally leveled at the Baseball
Prospectus staff is that we are rabid prospect hounds, to the point of
being a bit excessive about it. We'll cheerfully admit to the first part
and live with the second, because sometimes the long minor-league watch
pays off and provides some wonderful moments for us as fans. For me, the
most recent example of this occurred last Friday, when David Coggin
made his major-league debut for the Phillies.

I first became familiar with Coggin four years ago when he was one of the
"Four Aces" of the Phillies' low-A team at Piedmont. He was a
supplemental first-round pick who was touted as being a couple years away
from being the number-two guy behind Curt Schilling. While that was
excessively optimistic, he at least crept into the category of pitchers to
keep an eye on.

Unfortunately that was when the problems began. The 1996 Piedmont staff was
worked hard, Coggin included, and it seemed to be catching up with him.
Stretches of strong starts would be followed by arm soreness and trips to
the disabled list. By last fall, his career seemed to be in jeopardy, but
surgery to remove a bone spur in an unusual place in the elbow offered some
hope that he might put his problems in the past.

While it's too early to tell whether he will stay healthy, he's certainly
taken advantage of the change. Over the past month he's strung together
several effective starts at Double-A. When the Phillies needed another
starter with both Andy Ashby and Robert Person on the DL,
they decided to give Coggin a shot. He turned in a strong enough outing to
win the game and earn another start this week.

It would be hard for anyone not to smile listening to him talk after the
game about how excited he was, but knowing all that he had gone through
made my smile just a little bit bigger.

Of course, the flip side of following prospects so closely is that you also
have to watch so many players fall short. Of the 1996 "Four
Aces," the top pitcher from that year, Randy Knoll, blew out
his arm shortly thereafter and never made it past high-A ball. Rob
Burger, who threw a no-hitter during that season, got as far as
Double-A before running into a horrific case of Steve Blass Disease. He
bounced from level to level in two organizations before finally retiring a
month ago. Other than Coggin, only Jason Kershner is left standing
and making a bid to restore his prospect credentials. And if some day he
makes it as well, I'll be smiling at the thought of how long a road he's
traveled to get there.