Barry Baker

Loves journalism, is not a journalist. Loves politics, is not a politician. Loves the media, is not a medium. Barry is committed to helping the world become a more interesting place with Power of Opinion.

October 09, 2008

Winnipeg Taxi Poll

Moncton was beautiful as we lifted off the tarmac yesterday, the sky clear and blue. But it was dark by the time we touched down in Winnipeg, and the wind that bounced us on the way down blew all night, then delivered rain this morning.

But the political temperature of these communities is what really interests me. Our cabbie from the
airport first seemed a little reluctant to discuss the politics of his fares, but opened up after a couple of minutes. He related that the discussion in his cab is focused largely between the NDP and the Conservatives; most of his customers are leaning Conservative.

That opinion coincides with the findings of a poll reported this morning in the Winnipeg Free Press, which indicates that 45% of voters plan to vote for the Tories. That number is just a touch higher than the results of the 2006 election, in which 42.8% of Manitobans tilted right, when the province sent eight Conservatives, three Liberals, and three NDP MPs to Ottawa.

Ms. Glover may also very well benefit from the provincial Conservative party's decision yesterday to decline funding from the province, which leader Hugh McFayden called a "vote tax". Gary Doer's government brought in the new funding formula despite widespread popular opposition, so it is possible that Mr. McFayden's stand might generate some fiscal goodwill for his federal counterparts.

Messy or not, it all looked good to our cab driver who related how, before he immigrated to Canada from Kurdistan, lived as a refugee for four years in Turkey after escaping from the worst of Saddam Hussein's atrocities in Halabja and elsewhere. The pride in his voice was easy to hear when he spoke of free elections in Kurdistan in 1992, and his enthusiasm for politics here in Canada is no doubt directly related to those experiences. While he declined to tell us who he planned to vote for, he was emphatic it would not be a Liberal, nor an NDP. But after hearing his story, discovering for whom this cabbie would cast his vote suddenly took a back seat to the pride we shared at the simple fact that he could cast his vote here in Canada, a land rich in freedom, security, democracy.

That's it... not much of a poll, with a sample size consisting of just one voter driving a cab, and he didn't even tell me who he's voting for! But if for who his customers say they will vote, and for who he won't vote, is any indication of the sentiment in these hard-fought ridings, Winnipeg may be even more Conservatively blue next Wednesday morning.

UPDATE: An oddly similar conversation played out this afternoon with another immigrant cabbie on the way to Winnipeg International Airport, although today's trip included some rather anxious moments as we weaved in and out of traffic a little faster than I'm used to moving while on the ground. This fellow emigrated from India in 1980, and also declined to share who he would be voting for in his riding of Elmwood—Transcona. He did however share that he would be voting against the incumbent party, and said it in a manner that seemed well practiced, like he'd had the conversation with likewise-minded friends many times.

Elmwood—Transcona and its predessecor ridings have been represented by MP Bill Blaikie for 25 years, but now veteran provincial NDP candidate Jim Maloway is up against Conservative (and former Winnipeg Jet) Thomas Steen. It doesn't look like a particularly close race, but for some reason the Anything But Conservative web site lists it as a battleground riding, despite concurrently predicting a win for Mr. Maloway by some 6,200 votes. I don't get it.

Comments

Winnipeg Taxi Poll

Moncton was beautiful as we lifted off the tarmac yesterday, the sky clear and blue. But it was dark by the time we touched down in Winnipeg, and the wind that bounced us on the way down blew all night, then delivered rain this morning.

But the political temperature of these communities is what really interests me. Our cabbie from the
airport first seemed a little reluctant to discuss the politics of his fares, but opened up after a couple of minutes. He related that the discussion in his cab is focused largely between the NDP and the Conservatives; most of his customers are leaning Conservative.

That opinion coincides with the findings of a poll reported this morning in the Winnipeg Free Press, which indicates that 45% of voters plan to vote for the Tories. That number is just a touch higher than the results of the 2006 election, in which 42.8% of Manitobans tilted right, when the province sent eight Conservatives, three Liberals, and three NDP MPs to Ottawa.

Ms. Glover may also very well benefit from the provincial Conservative party's decision yesterday to decline funding from the province, which leader Hugh McFayden called a "vote tax". Gary Doer's government brought in the new funding formula despite widespread popular opposition, so it is possible that Mr. McFayden's stand might generate some fiscal goodwill for his federal counterparts.

Messy or not, it all looked good to our cab driver who related how, before he immigrated to Canada from Kurdistan, lived as a refugee for four years in Turkey after escaping from the worst of Saddam Hussein's atrocities in Halabja and elsewhere. The pride in his voice was easy to hear when he spoke of free elections in Kurdistan in 1992, and his enthusiasm for politics here in Canada is no doubt directly related to those experiences. While he declined to tell us who he planned to vote for, he was emphatic it would not be a Liberal, nor an NDP. But after hearing his story, discovering for whom this cabbie would cast his vote suddenly took a back seat to the pride we shared at the simple fact that he could cast his vote here in Canada, a land rich in freedom, security, democracy.

That's it... not much of a poll, with a sample size consisting of just one voter driving a cab, and he didn't even tell me who he's voting for! But if for who his customers say they will vote, and for who he won't vote, is any indication of the sentiment in these hard-fought ridings, Winnipeg may be even more Conservatively blue next Wednesday morning.

UPDATE: An oddly similar conversation played out this afternoon with another immigrant cabbie on the way to Winnipeg International Airport, although today's trip included some rather anxious moments as we weaved in and out of traffic a little faster than I'm used to moving while on the ground. This fellow emigrated from India in 1980, and also declined to share who he would be voting for in his riding of Elmwood—Transcona. He did however share that he would be voting against the incumbent party, and said it in a manner that seemed well practiced, like he'd had the conversation with likewise-minded friends many times.

Elmwood—Transcona and its predessecor ridings have been represented by MP Bill Blaikie for 25 years, but now veteran provincial NDP candidate Jim Maloway is up against Conservative (and former Winnipeg Jet) Thomas Steen. It doesn't look like a particularly close race, but for some reason the Anything But Conservative web site lists it as a battleground riding, despite concurrently predicting a win for Mr. Maloway by some 6,200 votes. I don't get it.