Gonzo Republican Convention

Republicans yesterday took our first big step toward Making America a Banana Republic Again by launching a national party convention made for daytime TV. There was only one achievement worth noting – we got through a whole day and no one has been assaulted. Threatened, yes, but actually assaulted, not quite yet. Since these people never deliver on a promise, threats don’t really count.

Some notable events:

A soap opera actor speaking from the main stage contrasted Trump with Obama by explaining that Trump is someone who “shares my faith.” Afterward he explained that cryptic line by claiming that Obama is a Muslim.

Colorado and Iowa delegations walked out after organizers ignored their petition for a floor vote. Both have returned, but hinted that more is coming.

There are 17 black delegates to the RNC. That’s 17 out of 2472. You have go deep back into the Jim Crow Era to find a major party convention with less minority participation. In 2004 African-Americans were almost 7% of the RNC’s delegate pool.

On a TV news panel, Iowa Republican Rep. Steve King went full racist, questioning whether any of “these sub-groups” had made contributions that compare to white Americans.

Somebody punked Melania Trump in an ugly way, inserting a couple of paragraphs lifted almost verbatim from Michelle Obama’s 2008 DNC speech. This could have been passed off for what it was, a nasty prank by a speechwriter who has presumably now fled to Ecuador. Frankly, the whole thing might have made her seem more human and sympathetic. However the StormTrumpers, being a tribe of ugly trolls, have instead deflected, lied, contorted, and then lashed out, making this stupid low-rent incident the defining moment of day one. Incompetence magnified.

The building was largely empty for much of the night. The only semi-serious political figure slated to speak on Monday, Iowa Sen. Jodi Ernst, was relegated to a late spot addressing an abandoned convention hall.

Tonight Paul Ryan is supposed to preside over a state-by-state roll call to nominate Donald Trump. It’s the only event of the week that might be interesting in an un-ironic way.

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Chris Ladd is a Texan living in the Chicago area. He has been involved in grassroots Republican politics for most of his life. He was a Republican precinct committeeman in suburban Chicago until he resigned from the party and his position after the 2016 Republican Convention. He can be reached at gopliferchicago at gmail dot com.

279 comments on “Gonzo Republican Convention”

“Donald Trump’s presidential campaign raised $21.9 million in June, according to its latest monthly report to the Federal Election Commission, a significant improvement over its meager May numbers.

The new report also showed that Trump had forgiven all of his personal loans to the campaign, as he had promised to do. The $21.9 million raised in June included more than $2 million contributed by Trump personally.”

Plus, he’s making the (correct) calculation that there’s a good chance Trumpism will be ideologically and morally discredited in the coming months and years when that happens, he can portray himself as the one with the “integrity” to go into the belly of the beast and stand up for what he thinks is right

How do you win elections when your base is shrinking and you have a horrible candidate?

You gut the VRA leading up to the most important election in decades.

“Shelby County v. Holder decision. The full impact of that ruling will be felt in this year’s election, the first presidential election in 50 years without the full protections of the VRA. Seventeen states have new voting restrictions in place for the 2016 presidential race, including more than half of those previously covered by Section 5 of the VRA, and representing 189 electoral votes, 70 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.”

If the GOP didn’t think these changes in voting rights wouldn’t suppress the vote, they wouldn’t have employed them. They do work. Obviously, there are many who don’t vote who have no excuse. If you had to stand in line for 7-8 hours, you might become discouraged as well. And, any of the other situations that make voting more difficult rather than even “average” effort. Otherwise, “could” is too projectionist….I agree. In this case, voter suppression is real.

Voter suppression is most effective in low turnout races, mime. Combined with gerrymandering and the current swing between presidential and midterm elections, that’s why you see Republicans having such success outside of a presidential year.

Now that’s not to say that it still won’t have an effect, but you have to parse that with the extraordinary efforts that Clinton campaign has, is and will continue to make in terms of voter registration. Contrast that with the virtually nonexistent efforts that the Trump campaign is making with GOTV, and the net gain for Republicans could be as much as nonexistent.

Take these things in stride and let’s work through them one step at a time. It’s going to be alright. 🙂

Some stories I see are awful or troubling in regards to police misconduct and then some defy imagination. How do some people become gifted with such incredible authority to only misuse it in such horrible ways?

OK, sorry to be OT, but my campaign brain is over-loaded and I am reading on other subjects. Just received this article from Evonomics.com, and there is a wealth of interesting thought to help my brain detox from the election. It does relate to the election cycle in that this is precisely the kind of discussions our leaders should be having instead of mock trials and other theater. The author, David S. Wilson, was charged with thinking and writing upon: “what evolution might have to say about the financial crisis that had broken upon the world.” IOW, what have we learned from the 2008 Great Recession and how are we using those lessons to shape our current economic policy direction. Are we moving in a direction that is relevant to this different world?

It’s an interesting departure from the stupidity of the moment. Stretch those brain cells!

“Neoclassical economics provides an outstanding example of the “you can’t get there from here” principle in academic cultural evolution. It will never move if we try to change it incrementally. It must be replaced wholesale with a more realistic conception of human nature.”

I read about halfway through the article and was wondering how this could apply to the environment. I have often expressed hope that if we work toward keeping our personal sphere clean, individually, locally, in small groups, on a small scale, this would bode well for the entire world. Of course, there would be others who would pollute their immediate environment. The article suggests that the practice that wins out, due to evolution, is the one that’s best for the overall environment of the world. Does that mean that cleanliness and thrift with respect to resources will win out eventually, and that practices that result in pollution and waste will be winnowed out over time?

In the evonomics world, “environment” is a very broad amalgaman of society as it “evolves” in response to a changing world….I’m not nearly smart enough to figure out which comes first…the chicken or the egg …. but I like to at least think about the fact that society can and does change which gives me hope that we can overcome our worst tendencies and embrace the best for the long term. Thus, I find articles like this inspiring and an interesting departure from the mundane news we all enjoy so much – politics – the ultimate evolving societal institutional structure.

I think Tutta, evolution generally produces “good” results, but that’s only if given a long enough timeline for advantageous traits/behaviors that appear to become fully embedded in the gene pool. But that takes a lot of time.

If we’re wondering if evolution will solve the climate change problem specifically (I think that’s what you’re asking) I don’t think it will. If the worst predictions of CC come to pass, it will have happened far too quickly for evolution to respond. When did we really start polluting en masse? 200 years? 300 years? That’s not even an eyeblink in evolutionary terms. It’s not even a measurable timeframe.

It’s important to understand, the mutations that drove evolution are not always positive. In fact, it’s probably the exception. Most mutations are probably neutral and thus don’t affect much one way or the other. Many are flat out negative, and thus wouldn’t gain much traction. The bearers of these traits would likely not be able to pass their genes on, and most of these traits will die out. A very few are beneficial, and this quickly (“quickly” in evolutionary terms, of course) infiltrate throughout the population, until the vast majority of individuals have this trait, and it becomes part of the established genetic canon for that species. So its not evolution always leads to good results. Evolution is a blind process, there is nobody pulling levers. Its thag the many mutations that ARENT good dont even last long enough to be noticed. The onky ones we notice and that propogate are the benwficial ones, wbich gives us the overall perception that evolution always leads to good things. And while the overall AFFECT of evolution is a good thing for a species overall, it is often very bad for the specific individuals in that species. Humans have undoubtedly benefitted from evolution. But does that fact benefit the specific human born 20,000 with a mutation that prevents them from making white blood cells or whose eyes lost the ability to see? No. They’re basically f’d.

In order to grasp imagine evolution might effect how we interact with our environment, I don’t think we can look at humans on Earth anymore then we could imagine how evolution affects humanity by looking at any one human. I think you need to zoom out and imagine all the intelligent life spread throughout the universe. Let’s say there’s a billion intelligent species out there. THATS our “species” and each specific individual civilization (of which humans are just one) are just individual “people”. We’ll call this species “Intelligent Life”

Now, if we imagine this huge mass of civilizations, we can imagine another type of evolution happening. Many species will likely not have the tools equipped to prevent the destruction of their own world, whether that be by environmental pollution, disease from overcrowding, wars or what have you. But some will. This is probably the norm. I do believe the most likely result of intelligent life is self destruction, and this explains Fermi’s Paradox (which can be sunmarized as: “where the hell IS everyone?”). But I think a few WILL have the tools needed to either protect their environment from the beginning, or recognize and stop their self destruction in time. These relatively few individual ” Intelligent Lifers” will be the winners of the evolutionary lottery in the same way that the first organisms who developed the light sensitive spot (which later became the eye) were THEIR generations evolutional lottery winners. These civilizations will be the ones who flourish, who thrive and likely who eventually spread out in their local solar systems/galaxies. For those civilizations that aren’t so lucky, they’ll be relegated to the trash heap of evolutionary history in the same way specific humans with negative mutations have been.

So I guess my entire point is: the sheer size of the universe and sheer number of intelligent species that must be out there, undoubtedly Intelligent Life will survive somewhere, and indeed thrive, and that’s a good thing. But that’s going to be little comfort to all the individual Intelligent Species who don’t evolve the tools protect their environment from themselves and destroy themselves.

As I said at the beginning, CC ( or nuclear war, or a devastating disease etc) is going to happen much too fast for evolution to respond. We just have to hope that the evolutionary tools to protect (namely, our mental capacity to identify and solve the problem in time) our planet are ALREADY in place if we hope to survive. And to be honest, it’s looking a little dicey at this point. Maybe in 50 years or so it will be more clear.

Rob: You answered my question. I used climate change just as an example, although my question was really about evolution in general, and you did address many aspects that apply to evolution in general — whether it can be good or bad, how postive traits can be general but not specific, how evolution can sometimes be too slow and good traits arrive too late. Thanks

And no, I’m an amateur nerd, not a professional one. For my livelihood, I’m actually a commercial diver (not diving FOR things, a construction diver. Underwater welding, dam maintenance, weld inspections etc). I got out of the army in 2008 and they paid for dive school. It’s a bit of an unusual job, but it’s pretty thoroughly blue collar.

I always had a love of reading and a love of learning for learnings sake. But I hated school and wasn’t an overly bright academic star lol. Go figure. I just couldn’t retain knowledge about things that didn’t interest me nearly as easily.

. I do have a lot of general knowledge (I’m pretty good at jeopardy lol) but for the most part it’s just that I’m lucky enough to be born at a time when pretty much everybody has access to the entirety of human knowledge in their pocket computer (phone).

I think I’ve asked you this question before. I recall now that you shared the diver profession info (old, grey matter over here….). Sounds interesting and risky….You certainly are diverse in your commentary and I find I agree with you often. It’s unusual that someone from Canada is so deeply interested in American politics. Good for you.

I am intrigued with this woman who simply went by “Lin” and hope to find a biography to learn more about her amazing life. I am proud to learn about women who have excelled in fields which were so often closed to females in my generation. It was not an easy time for brilliant women to pursue interests outside traditional roles. But, pursue she did, and in 2009, “she shared the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with Oliver E. Williamson for “her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons”. To date, she remains the only woman to win The Prize in Economics.[5]” (wiki)

Women bring a different perspective to problem solving which increases the importance of their representation and participation on corporate boards, in government, politics and the justice system. Women, I think, are a necessary and valuable element in planning for our social and cultural evolution from where we are now as a country, to where we need to go.

“The mathematical empire was founded on the assumption that self-interest automatically leads to collective well-being. Lin’s work was founded upon a stubborn fact of life: self-interest often leads to the over-exploitation of resources and other problems that make life worse for everyone, not better.”

Think about that statement for a minute and apply it to the issues that surround us…..the environment, womens’ rights, economic markets, equality, globalization, peace…. what are our changing responsibilities to re-shape our world to make it a better place for all?

How many times have the courts struck down abusive changes to the Voting Rights as well as Roe v Wade rights? TX who leads the nation in efforts to undermine just about everything that speaks to equality as I understand and believe in, has just suffered yet another defeat.

At least this ruling has come down early enough (hopefully) to positively impact the General Election. No more of these rulings on the eve of the elections which can’t be implemented and thus achieve the short term goal of those who created these atrocities.

Right, but they may survive “long enough” to impact the election. NC is an abomination in the changes it has made to voting rights. And, they are not alone. There’s enough work in this area (voting rights) to keep legal specialists working for a very long time. Problem is: the time is now.

If the worst happens….a SC ruling would be futile. All of these laws have been designed towards one end game: getting one more victory lap that puts the SC out of reach for decades (3 potential nominations due to age of current bench). Do you really think a Trump inspired SC would not rule favorably towards voter ID changes?

So, remember that disingenuous shit sandwich Cruz used to feed us as recently as 2014? The one about “no new warming in 15 years!!”? It was factually true, but that’s only because that year 15 years ago was an unusually warm one. While it took 15 years to get a warmer one, the undeniable trend was one of warming.

Now, 2016 has obliterated that claim, with an outline year so high that it’ll probably be another 15 years before it’s beaten, while still continuing the obvious trend.

Warning: if you’re a fan of global stability, polar ice caps, and Miami, you probably shouldn’t look at the global temperature chart in this article.

Sweet, it worked. While we’re on topic, since that data only goes back a few hundred years and to put things in perspective, here is data going back 1500 years. Note, the blue line is an aggregate of different proxies (tree ring data, ice core data, coral data, and cave deposits) while the red line is instrument readings.

And to pull it all together to really get a sense of how much potential trouble we could be in, here’s data going back a few hundred thousand years using I’ve core data. The red line in this graph represents atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the blue line the temperature. You can see a pretty clear correlation. Note too, that this only goes to 2000. The CO2 concentrations in this chart, while alarming, are much worse now.

That’s exactly what it is Mime. Except instead ofba person having a major heart attack, it’s our planet.

And if we call Dr. GOP he’ll say something like “cut back on smoking, cheeseburgers, and fatty foods? Of course not! The problem seems to be you’re not getting ENOUGH of these things. More cheeseburgers! More fatty foods! And for God’s sake man, more smoking!”

Wow. I didn’t realize 2016 was so bad. The jump from the last trough is much higher than in 1998, and that one was pretty extreme.Another bad part is that after the Nino effects pass we have another 15 years of “cooling” nonsense before the trend catches up again.

To put things in context, 2 degrees C is the “limit” scientists are recommending, based on the peak in the prior interglacial. Even that would mean sea levels 20-30 feet higher. We are more than halfway there. Beyond that we have no data on how the world will respond, although simulations say “very poorly”.

It’s been the conventional wisdom in politics that bitching about and demonizing your opponent, by itself, isn’t enough to win. You also have to make the care for why people should vote FOR you. I realize that the conventional wisdom isn’t what it used to be, but it’s been noted that Hillary Clinton is getting a lot more mention than Trump at the convention.

That’s all well and good for the most hardcore of hardcore activists in the base that isn’t even enough to fill up the convention arena, mime, but hating on Hillary isn’t going to get enough people to the polls to win a national election. In all likelihood, it’s enough to lose it and really, really badly.

So it seems the Donald Jr. visited Kaisch to offer the VP slot. Part of the offer was that Kaisch would be allowed to be in charge of Domestic and Foreign policy, Basically, letting him be President in all but name.

Again Trump is the man millions believe should be in charge of the most powerful nation in the world. I wonder if Vice(?)-President Pence got the same deal.

One day this past May, Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., reached out to a senior adviser to Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, who left the presidential race just a few weeks before. As a candidate, Kasich declared in March that Trump was “really not prepared to be president of the United States,” and the following month he took the highly unusual step of coordinating with his rival Senator Ted Cruz in an effort to deny Trump the nomination. But according to the Kasich adviser (who spoke only under the condition that he not be named), Donald Jr. wanted to make him an offer nonetheless: Did he have any interest in being the most powerful vice president in history?

When Kasich’s adviser asked how this would be the case, Donald Jr. explained that his father’s vice president would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy.

His position on womens’ rights bears a deeper look, Bobo. Also, his budget work which he touts has its detractors. He positioned himself as so reasonable in comparison to the rest of the GOP field, and was pretty successful. Otherwise, he “seems likable enough” (-;

Trump’s advisors know that Ohio is predictive and critical to a presidential win. Kasich has more principle, evidently, than interest in playing politics with someone who he does not respect. Can you imagine serving “under” (because there is no “with” this man) Trump?

He wants to be the Queen of England, getting all the attention and admiration while his VP will be the PM, the guy who does the actual work.

Trump is just a lazy piece of shit. That’s all he is. Not lazy in the sense of he wants to sleep all day, but in that he doesn’t have the interest or desire to learn more then the basic fundamentals of any particular issue.

As the Qyeen is unelected, A more accurate comparison would probably be Israel’s system. The Prez is the elexted head of state who does all the ribbon cutting and baby kissing and the PM is the elected head of gov’t who gets involved in the actual business of running the gov’t.

The mystery surrounding Melania’s speech plagiarism is solved. Again, I think it is important to note that these kinds of things are so far down the list of what is most important in this campaign that they hardly bear the time spent on it. Let’s get down to the big stuff, folks.

Evidently, the focus on the plagiarism was negative or distracting enough from their “message” (if you can call it that) that they had to address it. To that extent, it was important. It is the absence of substance that is worrisome, though predictable.

Here’s what I have learned from the snippets I’ve read & seen in video clips from the GOP convention: Democrats need to present an entirely different convention model. It Must be issue focused and civil. My fear is that the Bernie crowd are planning some disruptive activity that will detract from what I hope will be a more substantive convention program. I think that would be a big mistake.

Set a different tone. Give the American public something to think about. Demonstrate that Dems are the serious party – that they understand the problems people are concerned about and have a workable plan to address them.

IOW, be the adults in the room. I think it will pay off and the contrast will be striking.

I wish to nominate Ben Carson to a new position in a future Trump administration… but not as Surgeon General. I wish to nominate him as a head exorcist for Gingrich’s new House Committee on Un-American and Un-Godly Witchcraft Activities.

The Lucifer possessed commies must be stopped.
Watch as Mr. Carson explains the unholy connection… but only if you dare!

Trumps offer was that Kasich would be in charge of “foreign and domestic policy”. Which pretty much comprises the totality of a presidents job. Trumps job? He’s in charge of ” making America great again”

Thorazine should be added to the water and vaporized into the ventilation system in that convention. Never seen so much hate in one place before. That is straight up100 prof crazy going on in that convention. Why do the Texas delegation always wear the same thing every four years, lemmings.

Well, Just one person’s opinion, but Moran thinks Christie was auditioning for 2020! Apparently, we are in for 4 more years of right wing, the more right the better, pandering to the worst the GOP has to offer!

Of course Christie was auditioning for 2020. So were Cotton and Ryan, and Cruz will too. They all know Trump will probably lose, so 2020 will be an open race again, and it’s already time to start laying groundwork. Supposedly Cruz hasn’t even completely disassembled his campaign organization.

I really hope that Cruz does make his speech all about positioning himself for 2020 and he doesn’t mention YouKnowWho’s name even once. Stay in character please, Ted! This is not the time to stop being that self-centered, backstabbing, Lucifer-in-the-flesh that we all know and loathe.

I must confess to skipping the GOP convention this time around. I don’t feel the need to tune in to the anti-Hillary hate fest; I prefer to watch more upbeat fare like “The Night of…” on HBO.

I think that past conventions have mattered beyond serving as a pep rally for the base. Some people here may remember how Pat Buchanan’s infamous “Culture War” speech during the 1992 GOP Convention helped derail George H.W. Bush’s efforts to present the GOP as a more moderate, non-extemist party. Those days seem so quaint now.

I am still having trouble wrapping my head around Trump being the nominee. His promotion so birtherism alone should have been enough to preclude him. Such is the coarsening of our national rhetoric, and the uselessness of our Fourth Estate.

These days, I am actively trying to take a page out of Tutta’s book, and embrace the positive. So here is some good news–there is an interesting article in Salon today (I know, Salon–we had broken up during the Dem primary but are back together again) comparing how Black Lives Matter is currently viewed to how the 1960’s Civil Rights Movement was viewed in its time. There are links to the polls in the article, so you can go see the data for yourself. I was surprised at how much more positively BLM is viewed by most whites (with the exception of Republicans) today than the largely non-violent, righteous Civil Rights movement during the 60s. That gives me hope for our nation, that we have become much more empathetic despite our divisive politics.

It’s genuinely hard to watch. I stopped both nights before 9 PM. Anything important will be on the news anyways.

When Christie read out a bunch of mostly phony “charges”, followed by a bloodthirsty crowd shrieking ” GUILTY!!!!” it turned my stomach. I wonder how many of those ppl in attendance are aware of the horrors of the Inquisition.

And I generally am loathe to use Nazi references. They are almost 100% ofnthe time inaccurate hyperbole, but the constant chants of “lock her up!” seems very similar to Nazi Germany in the early 30’s. They didn’t start murdering everyone on Day 1. First, they merely jailed political opponents. The murdering came later.

I just find the direction this convention has taken to be very unsettling. I get it. Politics is about winning. This goes way beyond winning. They don’t just want Hillary to lose. They want her crushed, humiliated, stripped of her possessions and freedom and in jail. That’s disturbing to me, and it should be to anybody who believes in a democratic society.

Flake is a voice of reason in the GOP. I think he could do more to lead from a different kind of Republican organization.

When your whole campaign and political apparatus is built upon subtrafuge and hyperbole, that’s really all they have left to offer on stage. They “can’t” sell their ideas because their focus is totally inward. All the GOP has left is the hope that there are enough weak, shallow people out there who agree with them and will vote for the “only true alternative”. Bah, humbug!

And, that is why Lifer is leaving the party he has worked so long and hard to support. The party he loved is gone. The current iteration of the Republican Party – left Lifer and all other traditional Republicans. They didn’t leave it. But they will. The sooner the better.

Crushed and humiliated is understandable; they’re the opposition. It’s the desire to imprison somebody *just* for being an effective opponent that’s scary. (Because the email business is transparently not a jail offense no matter what happened).

“Such is the coarsening of our national rhetoric, and the uselessness of our Fourth Estate.”

There are so many troubling aspects to pick from, but that might be the one I put at the top of the list. It’s like all the retraints we learn to check our worst impulses and function as society are being tossed. If I’m going to try optimism I could chose to see this as the initial ickiness just after lancing of an infected boil. But that wars with the pessimistic option that it’s the prelude to the spread of the infection.

And yes, shame on most of the press. They failed to do their jobs back in ’02-’03, and we didn’t get the needed critical examination of W’s case to invade Iraq. We have also had a failure to critically examine Trump when it actually could have stopped him. And now he can go on 60 minutes and be blatantly hypocritical about slamming HRC for voting yes on invading Iraq but giving Pence a pass for the same vote, and it doesn’t really budge the needle. He can be totally clueless about events and policy, and the reaction is “meh”. People should be shocked and dismayed and angry about these things, but Trump has skewed the normal of politics.

I don’t agree with it, but I can see how a reasonable-minded person can look at Hillary Clinton and not like her, but in all seriousness, where does this visceral, loathing hatred of her come from? For goodness’ sake, she’s not evil incarnate. You’d think she slaughtered an innocent family and their puppy in the middle of the night.

I think a lot this starts with the grudge a lot of righties developed over Bill Clinton winning in ’92. After all Bush the Elder had reached some sky high approval numbers; he was supposed to be reelected so easily. I remember a SNL skit from the 91-92 season (IIRC on the season) that depicted a bunch of potential Dem candidates saying “no, YOU run. Please, I insist! You’re so much better qualified.” How dare Bill Clinton (with a big assist from H. Ross Perot) derail all that!!! And here’s HRC to rub their faces in that again, plus she would be continuing that America-hating Obama’s legacy. All that accumulated hate- you can see how it’s warped their minds.

Those of you here with better recall and/or information of Willy’s fooling around – what is your knowledge about how Hillary handled these situations? Is there credence to the charge that she attacked the women for publicly disclosing their sexual relationship with him?

I am not at all indicating I believe his behavior was excusable, but does Hillary deserve any of the criticism she’s getting on these charges?

Maybe some righty somewhere has referenced Alinsky in the context of a cogent, reasoned argument, but I have yet to see it. If I’m reading the comments, and I see “Alinsky”, it’s a signpost saying “here there be derp”.

Christie – Now that is one mean SOB. How he has escaped bridgegate I will never know, but one day, he’s gonna get his. It’s just a matter of time. People like that enjoy inflicting pain on others. They get caught. Eventually.

Chris Christie is, in my opinion, a wonderful example of laser-guided karma. He’s only 53, so he potentially has decades of political life ahead of him. He has to spend all that time being Chris Christie, being around the sort of people who want to be around Chris Christie, and being treated the way one would treat Chris Christie. I struggle to think of a more perfect fate.

It’s a little OT, but I’ve been thinking about how the rest of this campaign might play out. As Chris encouraged us all to predict when Trump’s campaign would end, and I didn’t step up to the plate then, I’ll make my prediction here & now, for later gloating if it comes true, or chagrin if it doesn’t.

Here goes; this period right now, i.e. mid/late July 2016, is basically as good as it will get for Trump’s campaign. There may be a convention bounce, as predicted by fivethirtyeight.com, of around 3-4%, but it will probably dissipate pretty quickly as Clinton picks up her convention bounce. Similarly, there will be the usual noise and bouncing around of polls over the next 3+ months.

However, overall the polls will move against Trump until the election. I see two reasons for this. (1) So far, there are still plenty of people who haven’t yet paid any attention to the race (surprising as it may seem to many of the obsessives who inhabit this & plenty of other comment boards, including me). When polled, they reply that they’ll be voting R or D, purely because that’s who they’ve usually voted for, without knowing much about the actual candidates. Once they do start paying attention, one or other of Trump’s many, many, many whacko statements or weird policy positions will make them go “Huh?!? He said *what*?!?” and they will shift to voting D – for president, at least. This will accompany and reinforce (2); as more people who are/have been Republicans announce they can’t/won’t vote for Trump (Hi, Chris!), it will enable others to do so, too. Partly because it’s now “socially acceptable” to do so, partly because there will be those who say, well, if Chris Ladd, or whoever, (whose opinions I respect), is voting for Clinton, maybe I should, too – or at least think about it. From there it accumulates.

I don’t know whether the decline will just be a slow grind down to some level of base support, and static thereafter (so Clinton wins say 54-46 or thereabouts, ignoring independents), or if it will at some point snowball and result in a 1984-style landslide, only with the Democrat winning. Given the fact that there has been a solid base for each party for quite some time, I expect the former, but these things only last until they don’t, and this might be the year.

There you go; that’s my prediction. I wonder how it will look on Nov. 9.

Lifer’s said for a while now that the polls ’round Labor Day are when things will settle in, more or less. Barring something totally unexpected, I’ll place my bet as Clinton as having anywhere from a comfortable six to ten point lead over Trump by then.

Senate-wise, I’ll say Democrats pick up eight seats. NH, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Illinois are almost foregone conclusions at this rate. Bayh will be Democrats’ saviour in Indiana and that one will flip from red to blue. Same with McCain in Arizona. As for the other two, I’m reasonably confident Democrats can pull it out in the remaining states (Ohio, Florida, NC, with, maybe, a surprise win elsewhere).

As for the House (I KNOW, OKAY? Hold your fingers), I’m going to say that Democrats pick up at least twenty to twenty-five seats at a minimum. Polling averages have generic Democrats with about a seven to eight point advantage, which is just at the threshold of where they need to be to take back the House, but we’ve still a ways to go yet. I still think they can take back the majority IF things go well for them from here on out, but it’s still a very heavy lift.

That aside, much as I’d love to have a 1984-esque Democratic landslide and shut that egotistical ass Joe Scarborough up once and for all, a victory of that scale isn’t possible anymore, at least not right now. People are too polarized and there are some states that just aren’t going to turn blue no matter how strange things get.

The one downside to the Dems gaining House seats, but not enough for a majority, is that it increases the power of the RWNJs in the “Freedom” Caucus. If that abominable Hastert Rule was ditched, their influence could be diluted, but I can’t see enough spine in the rest of the Rs to pull that off.

In spite of a Quinnipiac poll that just came out showing Rubio ahead by thirteen points (absolutely no way that’s accurate), I do think he has a slight advantage, maybe by around three or four points. Murphy is weaker than I’d hoped and I do think he can win, but it’s going to come down to him riding Clinton’s coattails in Florida.

The debates “could” help. It will depend upon how well the moderators do their jobs holding the candidates accountable, and how well Hillary manages Trump’s style of deflection. If she handles herself like she did in the 11 hours of hearings on Benghazi, and if she doesn’t get off point (which Trump will train to accomplish), and if she is able to retain her calm, dignified composure, she will help herself and hurt Trump. Those are my caveats.

This is showing my Millennial noobity doobity newness, but how important are the conventions anyway?

Today I was trying to think back over past conventions and I realized, I only really remember two. I remember the RNC saying “Four more years!” and “Stay the course!” in 2004, and I remember Clint Eastwood arguing with an empty chair in 2012.

For the record, I didn’t care for the Bush Administration but I thought the Four More Years / Stay the Course theme was pretty strong, especially the Stay the Course, as cynical as it was. I also, for the record, think the set-up of themes this year (Make America Safe Again, Make America Work Again) is actually pretty smart, though in practice the Safe Again presentations were mostly just a series of white grievances.

I’m familiar with ‘the convention bump’ and will be following that with curiosity, but I’m more specifically interested in the, like, 20% of undetermined voters currently existentially threatening both major campaigns.

Before this year I was registered independent but I usually knew who I was going to vote for by the time the conventions happened. However I have a hard time connecting with this idea of people who vote, but who also don’t pay attention until later. I don’t really see how anyone can’t have an opinion on Trump or Clinton at this point, but I also don’t see how people can be legitimately straitghtforwardly white supremacist so I guess I struggle with empathy in some important areas.

Anyway, this is all to say, how important are the conventions normally (assuming a not crazy ass year), and then what is expected to be achieved out of the conventions this year?

Formdib, I am surprised that you haven’t made up your mind on your presidential pick yet. I doubt the convention process will help you as these are (IMO) more designed to fire up (and reward) the top tier of the base than reveal much about the candidates. You know what there is about HRC already because she’s put all her position papers on the internet. She’s done the research and her tax returns go back 30 years. I think Trump has two positions up. The debates will be a better test but you can be a competent leader and a very average debater.

What’s unfortunate is that “themes” dominate “issues”. That’s what should be in front of the American public.

“Formdib, I am surprised that you haven’t made up your mind on your presidential pick yet.”

I don’t know where I gave that impression, I’m voting for Clinton. The only other candidate I can muster is Gary Johnson and I like Clinton’s platform more than Johnson’s.

Part of the reason I don’t know much about the political EVENTS of a campaign is that I simply vote off of websites. It’s easy: you look at the candidates’ list of shit they’re going to do, you mark up which ones seem to do the most things you want and the least things you don’t want, and you’re good to go.

Clinton has the better list. Johnson’s is merely acceptable. Stein’s is useless*, and Trump’s is, needless to say, awful.

I did find Trump’s “I Win” tax plan funny, though, so there’s that. Would cost us trillions of dollars per year, but it was funny.

*Though surprisingly less useless than last time around, last time around her list looked like a middle schooler’s Christmas list with ‘world peace’ written in, this year it looks like a high schooler’s running for student body president.

True, but as Formdib becomes more interested in politics, he will also look at “what” a candidate’s history is. Saying what one wants to do, believes in are important indicators, but history is predictive of what they will do.

When you get down to it, conventions are just four days worth of free publicity. However important they turn out in the long run is really up to the campaigns, however there’s no intrinsic importance to them beyond officially nominating the presumptive presidential nominee and vice-president.

Does the generally reported lack of audience and interest in the convention matter, or are they typically boring and ‘we’, the media audience, only care this year because of the potential for violence?

The conventions used to matter a whole lot more. This whole primary morass has only really been implemented since the 70’s. Before then, the candidates were chosen at the conventions, with some notoriously contentious instances. In addition, the parties would actually spend more time going through and voting on their platforms instead of hashing everything out beforehand. Now, they are pretty much just useless publicity stunts.

Surely the rose-colored glasses on the economy don’t surprise you, Rob. Next thing you know, the GOP will take credit for the great economy (where they live) but “you know who” is gonna take the fall for everyplace the economy sucks.

Pence was touting Indiana’s super low UE rate (it’s fallen in recent years in line with the national average) the other day, and ASA Hutchinson speaking tonight was bragging about AK UE rate is the lowest it’s ever been. And then in the next breath and with a straight face, they’ll talk about how disastrous Obama has been.

“actually, come to think of it, it kinda looks like things are pretty good everywhere. But that can’t be true! ”

I mean it’s easy to make fun of the Republicans for burying their fingers in their ears and yelling, “It’s not true, nah uh, nah uh, you can’t tell me otherwise!” for eight years, but the fact is my friends from every side left, right, and center are all on this huge old “Everything is awful and just getting worse” kick that no amount of sober conversation abates.

I just feel like it’s part of Americans’ identity and culture to be upset and worried all the time. We’re one of the most stressed out nations on earth, and I’m not 100% sure that stress is entirely symptomatic of our politics. I think Americans LIKE to get stressed, to a degree. I think American culture really heroizes pissed off, take-no-bullshit-and-no-prisoners contrarian attitudes about damn near everything.

It gets dull after a while. It just frankly gets boring to be in the middle of. But this year shows how it can get scary, how people will literally refuse to imagine that anything good can happen of any outcome because it’s too important to their identity politics to feel like they’re being conspired against. A whole fucking country of Persecution Complex, drilled in to the point of eating away our body politic with acid.

It all comes wrapped up in our puritan beginnings, formdib. When I used to travel outside the U.S., I was always amazed at how “loose” the other cultures were….people weren’t so obsessed with their work or possessions. There seemed to be more emphasis on enjoying life….or, maybe it’s just that I fell in with a happy bunch…don’t know, but it sure did seem to be a whole lot happier environment. Capitalism has so many strong points, but it certainly demands its pound of flesh.

Form and Mime, the media, like TV news with snarky anchors who take sides, makes things seem worse than they are, and social media, with its habitual outrage and constant back and forth bickering, venting, and whining, just fans the flames, so I think if people take a break from all that, it would help us take a breather and calm down.

Lifer’s blog is pretty civil by comparison to others, and I learn a lot surrounded by so many smart people, but I often feel bombarded by negative vibes (I sense it as loud noise and clatter), when I visit this blog, with its regular dose of outrage over the latest thing the Republicans have said or done. I usually come away feeling down, with my ears ringing, in a daze. Not good for the soul.

Sometimes yelling is the most honest reaction, Tutta. Be careful not to mistake passionate beliefs for vitriol. I am certainly guilty of making inappropriate comments but this is a big, important and messy time. A little yelling is ok. Just step back from it when you feel overwhelmed. Key is to keep one’s balance and realize that as awful as most of us feel Trump is, even if he were elected president, America would survive. We wouldn’t be happy but the country (and we the people) would get through it.

I have posted that idea on several occasions, that the election of Mr. Trump would not spell the end of the world. He is not the anti-Christ, nor anything else along those lines. He’s just a flesh and blood human being, and he can be kept in check by our system of checks and balances, and it also wouldn’t hurt for him to hear from his constituents. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt should he be elected, but only then. In the meantime, I will do whatever possible to defeat him.

Please do not mistake my belief in America’s endurance over utter stupidity with acceptance of the devastation his presidency will cause. SCOTUS, budget, entitlement programs, equality, the environment, womens’ rights – big, important areas which he would undermine what progress has been made.

No, America will lose a great deal if Trump is elected but it will survive, but be very, very damaged.

Critical analysis means you not only listen but you apply independent thinking to analyze what is said. Connecting the mouthpiece (Trump or any commentator here or in the media) with content of speech is a logical step in the process. You don’t have to be repulsed by looking at the speaker to be repulsed by what they are saying. How you separate the two, I don’t know. Sooner or later, the content of a person’s character becomes relevant to decisions each of us makes in elections.

The Economist has several articles this week on our presidential race and Trump. One of them “The dividing of America” shows how things racially and economically are much better now but how Trump could unravel that and we could lose a lot. The very people who tend to vote for him would be hurt the most.

The article “Past and future Trumps” Show that insurgent candidates who win their party’s nomination tend to transform the party even if they do not win the presidency. The writer thinks Trump may push the Republican Party to become the workers party. If that happen would the big money concentrate on taking over the Democratic Party? Many of those people have no real loyalty except to their next dollar.

The Economist is a traditional conservative magazine and is serious journalism. I would of provided links but I think you have to be subscribe to read these articles.

I tape her every Monday night. She has a special this Wed. Warning she uses saucy language which considering her talent she really does not need. I got turned on to her from the Big Picture Blog that Barry Ritholtz puts out a very smart dude.

Apparently, Iowa rep. Steve King’s comment regarding the dearth of significant non-white contributions to Western Civilization has some supporters in the media. Most people however seem to classify his statements on MSNBC as classic white supremacy bunk.

But the venerable “Washington Times” has come to his defense.

Wow.

In other equally startling news, a domesticated cat somewhere in North America just took a dump in a litter box.

Yeah, it was called ‘al jabr’ (“restoration”, from Ilm al-jabr wa’l-muḳābala (“the science of reunion and equations”, alt. simplified: the science of restoration and balancing) by mathematician al-Khwarizmi). And the Arabs invented (discovered?) zero, named silf, which is also the root of the word ‘silk’, and all the associated significance derived therefrom regarding commerce and international trade. Without zero we would have never gotten past Pythagorean math.

Fun fact, told this to my Trump supporter friend once (I mentioned him here before, he was a Trump supporter as long ago as 2007) WHILE WE WERE VACATIONING IN EGYPT and he stared at me blankly before saying, “That sounds like a liberal lie.”

Who knows? I don’t believe Trump honestly wants to be president. Like Sanders, he underestimated his core base and it’s taken him much farther than he likely expected. Still, it’s the brand that matters to The Orange Wonder in the end and if the end result doesn’t change (Trump TV, anyone?) what’s a few months more to milk it?

I think that sounds ridiculous on its face, but then so does the image of him being happy as president for four years. No privacy. Having to make hard decisions. Not being able to just do what you want.

I actually don’t think Trump is power mad, or has any sort of “agenda” like a lot of the ideologues do. For Cruz, for example, the presidency is a vehicle to achieve the things he wants to do. Trump couldn’t care less about that. For him, the presidency isn’t a vehicle, or even the goal. The goal is to win. The four years of being president would be an offshoot of him achieving the goal of winning, but is not the goal in and of itself.

HRC is the 2nd most unpopular person to ever run for president (after Trump) and she’s beating him handily. Can you imagine how badly Obama would be crushing him if he were running his 2008 campaign now?

Remember, Trump has to release his specific financials tmr for the month of June. Last month on the 20th was the day that he released May fundraising info, with that humiliating $1.3 million on hand number.

Be interesting to see how he did in June. I don’t think it will be overly impressive.

Daily Kos has a comprehensive fundraising report for US Senate candidates. Here’s a link.
It’s helpful to monitor this because if you (like me) target your donations carefully, it helps to know who needs our wee little $$ the most. EX. NH, Ayotte leading Hassam quite a bit, so any appeals from Hassam is legitimately needed.

Pence has had some doozys with his op eds. Some are stupid, like the Mulan one, or the one about how Republicans, like “George Washington and George W Bush, just have better ideas”. The problem with the former is obvious. The problem with the latter is that Washington wasn’t a Republican, and was very much anti political parties.

Others are flat out dangerous and, frabkky, reprehensible. Like this one where he penned an OP Ed saying that tobacco wasn’t really dangerous to health and it’s all a big conspiracy……in f’ing 2001!

Pence was, of course, getting a lot of donation from tobacco companies.

The GOP staffers displayed symptoms of norovirus, but health officials are still running tests to confirm the cause of their illness.

“We’ve got about 11 who have been sick over the last few days, and we’ve been out there every day and working with them to eliminate the spread [between] the resort and the delegation from California,” Erie County Health Commissioner Peter Schade told Stat News.

Just messin’ around with ya, Right on! Plenty of BS to go around at the Trumpvention. Somehow, either they’ll blame Hillary or Obama for the norovirus or whatever is going down….That would be a rather clever way to sabotage an event – you have to admit, it does have style (-;

So Chris, is this week really the end for you? Are you really going to resign?

My concern with all of this is that somehow if it keeps going on, it becomes normal. And that there just aren’t enough rational people like you in the Republican party who are able to put reason above strict party loyalty. When will the Trump campaign officially derail? And at this point is there really anything he could do to derail it?

Working on the letter to the Chairman. Already exchanged some emails asking whether there are plans for our local organization or the state party to distance ourselves from Trump, just like our Senator has done. Got the evasive response I was expecting.

Still waiting to see what happens tonight and how the party responds over the course of the week, but yea. This is about it. Had some kind words for folks at the meeting last night. Might be the last time I see a lot of them for a while.

Part of me thinks it’s important to stay and fight, but the rest of me recognizes what you’ve called out – you can’t let this become normal. The “stay and fight” phase was really 2009-16. It’s parachute time.

Lifer, These two pieces by Peter Wehner and Matt Bai precisely summarizes where you are. Like you, they felt that the liberal criticism of Republicans as being racists was just so much ballywho. They have changed their minds. Smack dab right on what you have been saying.
Wehner has decided to forge on, that no less than the “soul of the Republican Party” is at stake. Bai appears to not be hopeful that the party can be saved.

The emperor has no clothes. Really.

Must reads, people. Lifer, if you can, let us know what you think of their thoughts.

None of us would blame you, Lifer. Selfishly, I hope you will continue to blog – under a new handle if that’s more appropriate. Watching people you care about self-destruct through willful ignorance has to hurt. You’ve invested a great deal of yourself in the GOP. Principle may not matter to some Republicans, but it obviously means something to you. With you wherever you go!

After reading the Bai and Wehner pieces, they infer that the number of people who make up the masses who are in agreement with Trump, White Supremists, racists, homophobes is much larger than they ever thought existed. Could this be why the GOP seems so cocksure they will win in November?

Mime, I think there are a lot of people out there who are not full-blown, raging racists or homophobes but who still have tiny bigoted bones in their bodies who may find Mr. Trump’s message appealing. The people who say, “I’m not racist, BUT . . . “

I personally think Mr. Trump’s appeal is based on image. He’s larger than life, flashy, brash, never apologizes, and although he can be rude (aka “tells it like it is”), he can also be quite funny and charming, so he inspires confidence, or at least the image he projects does.

Mrs. Clinton, on the other hand, comes across as humorless and schoolmarmish.

And, excepting her lack of technology skills (-; , damned effective. There is that. Look up her ratings when she was a Senator, then SOS. High marks. Republicans simply can’t stand the idea of her as POTUS.

I pegged Trump as a spoiled brat, a jerk, a braggart, and a bully decades ago. I now find that he’s even worse than my initial estimation of him. He’s also a fraud and a very big and blatant liar and willfully ignorant. I honestly see zero redeeming qualities in him.

Fly, the scary thing is that some people seem to admire bullies. It’s like they’re living vicariously through Mr. Trump.

I don’t know if you remember that article I posted from the WSJ about college-educated couples enduring marriage crises because the husband supported Trump while the wife hated him.

A recurrent theme was that the husband was absolutely thrilled over Trump’s being so ballsy about saying whatever he wanted, and the wife being shocked and angry at the husband, wondering, Who is this man I married?

The tiny hints I kept picking up from the interviews was that the husband felt repressed by his wife, and he enjoyed being able to speak his mind vicariously through Trump, to say all the rude stuff he always wished he could say but couldn’t because his wife disapproved, and he saw Mrs. Clinton as the wife who would control him.

I agree with Mime! I hope you continue the blog. Whether the GOP self destructs now or in the years to come, the seeds have been planted and just have to root. The sad thing is the country needs two strong parties of offset each other. Left to their own devices they each will come up with the screwiest ideas and wallow in their own form of self deceit and corruption. They each need the other to govern properly.

Looking back at Nixon, people called him right wing. He wasn’t that long ago! Compared to what we have now in the GOP, Nixon was almost a leftie:-))!

You’ve hit on the essence of Trump’s appeal, and the appeal of all the other “famous for being famous” people. I don’t follow celebs. If they have some talent that entertains me I’ll buy their movie or their music, but other than that I have no interest in them. (Unless they give Jimmy Fallon a good interview and kick his ass at flipcup! Then I’ll pay a little more attention.). But seriously I don’t need to know their personal secrets or copy them or get an autograph. I’m fine with living my own life. But lots of people are into the celeb watching- whatever floats your boat. But this merger of campaign and reality show is very alarming. The office of President of the USA is the most powerful job in the world. Call me elitist, but anyone who is not intelligent enough, or mature enough, or hard-working enough, or conscientious enough, or lacks the relevant experience is unacceptable. Trump fails in all those categories, and that’s before we even get to his horrific stands on the issues.

Speaking of Mr. Potato Head (no insult to the actual Mr. Potato Head intended, of course), looks like the Murdochs have finally seen fit to kick him out. One of those long-awaited moments that just makes you feel all warm inside, y’know?

Yeah. With her silence for the most part on the issue I kinda figured that was probably the case. It is all gross times a thousand. If Murdock’s sons are serious about a post Roger Ailes Fox News landscape they are gonna have to root out and decimate the whole sexual predator/sexist culture that obviously infects the place.

Jury is still out on that happening.

People like Ailes need to get it through their big fat head the 1950’s style of sexual exploiting female employees/subordinates is dead.

Turkey is suspending more than 15000 education workers in a widening purge in the wake of the failed “coup attempt”. That is crazy. There is no way that many administrators, teachers, tutors, etc. were complicit in what happened.

To put it simply, if tens of thousands of people were plotting together a coup against his rule, the scheme would fallen apart, been exposed and never gotten close to being implemented.

The coup may have been an attack on democracy in Turkey, but Erdogan’s actions will surely finish it off. This is a story to keep an eye on.

I really think that if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan keeps going on the path of becoming a full-fledged autocrat, he will become that region’s new Assad.

I’m skeptical of the whole coup story. I wonder if Erdogan didn’t arrange this as a pretense for cracking down on political opponents. He is desperate for a constitutional change that will give him sweeping powers as an executive president. He’s bad news for Turkey and that part of the world.

Erdogan has pushing against the secular stance Ataturk sought for Turkey’s government in the 20s and 30s. It’s my understanding his religion is more conservative than those he ran against last time. So yeah, he was elected, but it’s always scary to me when religion holds so much sway.

Well, that’s one sleaze-bag we won’t have to deal with much longer. Female harassment is much more pervasive than simply the media. Anyplace you have male-dominated power structures, you will find this problem. I have shared this story before, but it’s just as timely now. A good friend (republican) went to D.C. to be a page. She was a smart, sweet young woman, but not curvy or pretty. Just very, very nice. Regardless of her lack of physical attributes, she said members of Congress hit on her and other pages as well.

What is it about some men that they have to use sex as a controlling device? I am so glad the gals are speaking out. Megyn Kelly clearly is a star at FOX and she doubtless benefited under Ailes, yet she spoke up. She’s big time enough that she can command not only respect for her testimony, but won’t lose her job over it. Some of the other females at FOX didn’t, or they defended him…shame on them.

Politics and the visual media have something in common – a need for the principles (candidates or on-air personalities) to seduce the audience, to make people trust them, to look up to them. The egos are enormous they don’t turn it off when the cameras are off. “Of course she wants to sleep with me, I’m powerful. Everyone loves and respects me.”

I expect the gaffes and faux pas, but we are also getting lies and slander. That’s not right but maybe that’s what a party does when it is so mucked up it can’t defend/present its own plan. Make America safe? Let’s hear some detail. Budget numbers.

Look, let’s not blame Melania here. She’s an innocent party. Focus on the real hyperbole that’s being spouted, of which there is plenty. Get off Melania or you’ll be doing just what the Trump campaign wants – deflecting to another issue/person other than Donald and the GOP platform. Stay focused on the correct agenda here.

I think the speech mistake was (and is) relatively minor. Melania isn’t a politician, and a brief statement saying a Jr speechwriter helped her, and is now fired, and we’d all be talking about something else.

But now it’s become a legitimate issue, and for a good reason. The original mistake was minor. The inept response is much more so. Manafort coming out and blaming Hillary Clinton? That’s at least as big a gift to her as RBG have to Trump with her comments. It is self evidently NOT Hillary Clinton’s fault that Melania cribbed Michelle’s speech, and their desperate attempt plays into HRC hands. If they can establish that (according to Trump) literally EVERYTHING is HRC’s fault, even when it clearly isn’t, that severely weakens their position later if something actually IS her fault.

It also is more evidence of a totally incompetent campaign. Like, running the presidency is much harder then running a nomination convention, right? Theyve already had some pretty big hiccups (campaign: “Tim Tebows speaking!!!” Tim Tebow: “uh…..what?”) and it’s just getting started.

All legitimate observations, but the coup de grâce truly was Republicans’ manipulation of Pat Smith’s grief as a mother for their own political ends. You know, you don’t expect near next to anything from the GOP these days, and then you reach the point where you turn off the TV ’cause you just can’t take it anymore. My own mother was visibly disgusted last night.

This was spitting on the graves of the fallen last night, it truly was. I’d say RIP GOP, but why give you that distinction when you don’t give it to others?

Quick counter-point – Last night while the convention droned on I was at a local Republican meeting to discuss IL’s budget situation. Our state rep and senator were there to hear from folks who had served on a legislative research council. It was entirely civil, intelligent, and insightful. These are the Republicans I remember from my childhood. A Republican Jurassic Park.

It will be very difficult to leave this organization, but these good folks are in utter, concentrated denial about the insanity gripping the national party. We’re simply pretending it doesn’t exist. No one said a single word about the convention. Not one word.

Priebus is a shit-surfer. He’s in pure survival mode, like some feral animal. Nothing ever comes out of his mouth anymore that isn’t entirely calculated to preserve his hide for one more precious hour.

That has got to be the worst job in America right now. You couldn’t pay me enough to do it. Everything he says is BS, everyone knows it’s BS, he knows that everyone knows it’s BS, etc. etc. Is that really going to look good on a CV- that you did the job of declaring the buck nekkid emperor to be wearing the classiest and most luxurious suit ever??????????? I wouldn’t want to hire someone like that.

It’s all about one last paycheck and positioning yourself for your next position…….I agree with Lifer, Priebus clearly knows what is going on and is simply going through the motions to position himself in the best possible light………

“Priebus is a shit-surfer. He’s in pure survival mode, like some feral animal. Nothing ever comes out of his mouth anymore that isn’t entirely calculated to preserve his hide for one more precious hour.”

There still is an ecological niche for a political party that is pro commerce, conservation and true free market capitalism. One concern with fair play and human value. People to form it are in the GOP and Democratic party. Many old fashion Republicans have moved onto the Democratic Party but it is not a particularly good fit. And if the Democrats drift towards crazy too the impulse to create something new, is going to run strong. It could be a new party or a new coalition within the Democratic Party. The current Republican party with it’s gerrymander fortress has too many crazies for a viable coalition to form there. It is sad that the party of Lincoln has fell to the current situation.

Lifer, that seems to be the case across the board. Instead of slowing down the vitriol and bad legislation, the GOP is doubling down. That just doesn’t seem smart given the proximity of the election. Could the party really believe they are going to take this election? Or, does this reflect a “going for broke” mentality?

This much is true: if the GOP wins the election given the rhetoric, the laws that offend a majority of Americans, and a candidate for POTUS who is not only unqualified to serve, but isn’t a “true” Republican?

Sorry, didn’t finish that thought. If Repubs win with all of the above, our country is going to be set back for decades because in their worst hour, their platform and their people, terribly flawed, would have been approved by the majority of Americans.

I was under the weather yesterday and watched the Convention in bed. The treatment of the delegates petitioning for a roll call vote was indeed disgraceful and I think the RNC will pay for this in spades longer term. The lamest excuse I heard was that the roll call vote would have disrupted the schedule for the evening. As it turns out such a disruption would have been a better alternative.

I truly feel sorry for Melania. She certainly did not know that her speech had plagiarized passages. What a cruel letdown for her to finish the evening thinking she had done well only to later learn that her speech would be subject of derision. And to make matters worse, the Trump campaign manager threw her under the bus saying she knew what she was doing. Disgraceful. If Trump can’t run a competent campaign, he certainly has no business running the White House.

All they needed to do is sack a sacrificial lamb or two,and it would have faded from the news cycle. But Trump can’t pass on an opportunity to double down on errors. You are so right in pointing out how all this campaign incompetence is an indicator- it’s the canary in the coal mine keeling over with a loud thud to warn us of how incompetent a Trump administration would be.

Melania’s treatment was unforgiveable. She’s an innocent and no doubt worked very hard to give the speech someone wrote for her. However, welcome to the real world of First Ladies….better have a thick skin…

Why did so many leap to the assumption that someone was trying to sabotage the speech instead of simply doing something dumb that they thought no one would catch?

One thing is clear: the plagiarism wasn’t due to the original speechwriter. Unless the Trump campaign opens up about how it was produced there’s no way to know who introduced the plagiarized words. And unless Melania repudiates the plagiarism (did she?), why shouldn’t she be held responsible?

“NBC News obtained a copy of Scully’s draft as submitted to the campaign. That text indicates that the passages that appeared to have been plagiarized from Mrs. Obama were added at some point after Scully turned in his draft. ”

I have thought all along that the plagiarism what deliberate – meant as a sleight. It looks like I could have made a good guess on that.

I maintain that Melania read from the speech she was given. Unlike Michelle Obama, it is highly unlikely she was able to improvise, and I mean that as no disrespect for Melania’s intelligence, merely her unfamiliarity with politics.

Melania is the fall girl for a sick campaign ploy. Refocus on the issues and the husband and do not yield to deflection which is exactly what they want and expect. Be smarter than they are.

Here’s a link about the speech writing process. It sounds as if Ms. Trump was fully involved. She could well have known that words were being re-used from a previous speech.

“Ms. Trump decided to revise it, and at one point she turned to a trusted hand: Meredith McIver, a New York City-based former ballet dancer and English major who has worked on some of Mr. Trump’s books, including “Think Like a Billionaire.” It was not clear how much of a hand Ms. McIver had in the final product, and she did not respond to an email on Tuesday.

“Research for the speech, it seems, drew them to the previous convention speeches delivered by candidates’ spouses.”

On “Morning Joe” this morning, Kendal Unruh (the lady from CO who tried to force the roll call vote yesterday) was asked who she would be voting for? She replied that she would write in Ronald Reagan as a protest vote. She said her daughter said “But Mommy he’s dead.” Unruh replied that this is true, but so is the GOP.

Yes, well, Mrs. Unruh is a piece of work in her own right. I agree though that the never trump delegates were treated badly. Either you have rules, or you don’t. Might be something to keep in mind before the Bernie dissidents jam the Democratic Convention. I’m sure establishment figures are thinking hard about how best to handle a protest that is sure to happen.