Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Post Hoc, Ergo Procter Hoc

I hope all of my readers are sophisticated enough to be familiar with Hank the Cowdog, protagonist of more than 40 novels (short novels) by John R. Erickson, many of which are also available as books on tape. We were listening to one the other day (The Saddle House Robbery), in which the humor of the first major section all revolved around a single logical fallacy.

First, Hank himself decided to bark up the sun a half hour earlier one morning. In this attempt, he unwittingly entered into a game of "talk-back bark" with the nefarious coyote brothers, Rip and Snort. Hank only eluded a fight by convincing the brothers to join him in barking up the sun. They failed. Finally, the ranch's rooster, J.T. Cluck, came out and did the job.

We all smile at this, because we know that all of them--Hank, Rip and Snort, and J.T. Cluck--are guilty of fallacious thinking. We know that their barking, howling, and crowing does not in fact cause the sun to come up. And there is (of course) a name for the logical fallacy involved here.

It's called "post hoc, ergo procter hoc," which means simply, "after this, therefore because of this." This particular fallacy is an error that is common to much scientific thinking. This is because science frequently involves inductive reasoning (which, unlike deductive reasoning, means arguing from particular to general and from effect to cause). In observing an effect and seeking its cause, it can be easy to snatch at antecedents (prior events) as the cause when they are not actually the cause.

The only thing is, when modern scientists are guilty of this fallacy, it's not always as obvious as when it trips up the talking animals of the Texas Panhandle in Erickson's uproarious books.

56 comments:

I laughed out loud reading your post, Rick -- because my 5 boys have grown up with Hank the Cow Dog philosophizing in our van on many a family vacation. All of us wonder if the antics of our own golden retriever (whose name is, of course, Hank) has been listening as he seems to be thinking just like his "mentor" at times.

lost your money at the [url=http://www.realcazinoz.com]casino[/url] ?over 21 and looking where to [url=http://www.generic4you.com]buy viagra online[/url]? or even how to buy [url=http://www.avi.vg]adult toys[/url]? well you can try this websites and [url=http://www.medical-250.biz]buy viagra[/url]. [url=http://www.generic4you.com]sildenafil[/url] and [url=http://www.generic4you.com]generic viagra[/url] online. you can also buy [url=http://www.generik4u.com]viagra[/url] online. so for [url=http://www.avi.vg]sex toys[/url] and [url=http://www.ewgpresents.com]viagra online[/url] check us ! for great [url=http://www.cahv.org]viagra[/url] deals check us now!

[b]compra de levitra cialis cost 20mg classifed ads for cialis [/b]Many local venues are converted into biergartens Beer Gardens and take on Germanic names for the duration of the festival. Palestinian man was reported injured Saturday afternoon in clashes south of Nablus in the occupied West Bank. No hidden fees day Money back guarantee. Stress management is the application of methods to either reduce stress or increase tolerance to stress. Caterpillar Deere and every other company will be FORCED to to let people go or take their operations overseas. Thus patients and their partners are generally preferred Cialis Viagra regardless of whether they were transferred from Cialis to Viagra or Viagra to Cialis. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of STATS LLC and Associated Press is strictly prohibited. I live in one of the least densly populated states in the union and we pay Southern red states.