What's so great about Matt Barkley?? He was touted as the best prep prospect out the state of California since.....Elway.

Pure hype comparison. I don't see an all-world talent in Barkley, maybe a stronger arm than Sanchez, but really I don't get what it is that makes people even attempt to compare Barkley to Luck.

Maybe it's too early, maybe at the end of the 2011 season Barkley more clearly defines himself as a pro prospect, but right now the only thing I see that he has over someone like Dalton/Sanchez is arm strength, which still matters, but still.

Pure hype matters not a whit in my evaluation of Barkley. Luck is currently more hyped -did you notice?

Barkley is a smart, strong armed, highly accurate quarterback, who deals with pressure very well for the most part. He has had a great deal of success on a quickly declining USC team. He is clearly a very good quarterback, despite the fact that he was just a true sophmore last year, and he showed flashes of Brilliance. His supporting cast skill position players were good, but clearly not making him look better than he was. He still needs improvement to meet my projections of talent, but there is always some element of projection in saying how good a very young player was and is*.

One very large difference between Barkley and Dalton is that the latter actually made a lot more basic mistakes, despite a lot more experience (True Soph vs. RS Senior). Barkley also has a bigger arm of course, but is also more accurate physically.

Sanchez was a high pick, and as a USC fan, I was happy for him, but he never even approached the level of talent Barkley displays. If I had Sanchez and Barkley, I would start Barkley every time.**

*It takes no projection to say that Peyton Manning or Tom Brady are very good, and that JaMarcus Russel is not.

One thing that struck me was the fact that Luck attended the same Nike scout camps as most of the other top quarterback prospects of recent years, and they put together a video of the top 10 performers. He wasn't on it, while nearly all the other top young quarterbacks were. Stafford was #1, Aaron Murray, Matt Barkley, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford were on the list. It was funny because you could see Luck in the background of the videos of some of the other players.

I'll take the under. Luck looks like a #1 at this point and I don't see him hurting his stock to the point where he isn't the top QB. I say he only way he doesn't go #1 is if the team picking reallydoesn't need a QB and can't trade out.

I think he will be the top QB, but it depends on if the team needs a QB or maybe if there is a guy comes out and looks like a crazy dominant WR, DE or something.

whichever one you think means being picked at 2 or later (is that over, because the numbers higher, or under, because he's getting drafted lower?).

Agreed. Firstly, and most obviously, there's the chance that a team who selected a quarterback in the first round this year gets the first overall pick (so Car, Tenn, Jax, and Minn).

Secondly, there's the fact that he's going to be under intense scrutiny by both the media and by scouts. Both will use the extra time to simply look for flaws. If he doesn't progress as expected (or, even worse, regresses) people will say he's simply the product of Harbaugh/the system/the talent/etc. He's an excellent prospect but not without flaws. His arm is strong enough, but he rarely makes challenging throws. Whether that's the function of a conservative offense or not being totally comfortable with attempting "stick" throws is largely an unknown at this point.

Does the extra time lead to a better scouting job? Recent history would say yes, as you have the case of Matt Leinart - who had accomplished every possible feat at the college level and whose stock could not get any higher - falling to 10th overall. And you have Jake Locker - whose #1 stock was largely based on projection - failing to maintain his momentum after his junior year. Luck is somewhere in between the two. Conversely, you have Sam Bradford, who barely played due to injury and suffered the same kid of nitpicking and scrutiny. Yet he still went first overall and played admirably as a rookie.

Thirdly, there's the chance that another prospect with better physical tools/arm talent has a breakout season. The scouts, the media, and the country all suffer from massive ADD, with the "shiny new toy" quickly replacing the forgotten old one. The question is who will that prospect be (if there is one). Some say Landry Jones. Some say Barkley. I'd need to see a ton of improvement from both of them, though. Jones has better arm talent, but he doesn't have near the command of that Okalahoma offense than Bradford did. They don't require him to read multiple areas of the field and protect him with a ton of easy screen passes. Barkley is a guy whose arm talent was vastly (and I mean vastly) overstated coming out of high school. I just don't see any zip or velocity on his throws, and he really wears down as the season goes on, leading to sloppy, lazy mechanics, poor throws, etc. Quite frankly, I don't think he was physically ready for the responsibility they put on him this past year or as a freshman coming out of high school.

All that being said, I'm going to be watching the development of those three very closely this year.

Firstly, and most obviously, there's the chance that a team who selected a quarterback in the first round this year gets the first overall pick (so Car, Tenn, Jax, and Minn).

I don't think the Titans or Carolina would even if Newton and Locker struggle as rookies, but if the Jags or Vikes end up with the 1/1 pick in 2012, having Ponder or Gabbert on their rosters won't be enough of a deterrent to bypass taking Luck IMO.

Luck just reminds me of a more mobile Peyton Manning, except he plays better in pressure situations.

If he's anything close to Peyton in the minds of NFL GMs, the Panthers, Titans, Jags and Vikes IMO would take him over any QB currently on their roster next season.

Firstly, and most obviously, there's the chance that a team who selected a quarterback in the first round this year gets the first overall pick (so Car, Tenn, Jax, and Minn).

I don't think the Titans or Carolina would even if Newton and Locker struggle as rookies, but if the Jags or Vikes end up with the 1/1 pick in 2012, having Ponder or Gabbert on their rosters won't be enough of a deterrent to bypass taking Luck IMO.

Luck just reminds me of a more mobile Peyton Manning, except he plays better in pressure situations.

If he's anything close to Peyton in the minds of NFL GMs, the Panthers, Titans, Jags and Vikes IMO would take him over any QB currently on their roster next season.

I think this also, A kid who's Dad was an NFL Player, Really Smart, Studies all the Time. I think if Andrew Luck lives up to his Potential in the NFL he could be the Next Peyton Manning. I think Andrew Lucks Potential is being the Next Peyton Manning. That's what I think.

Luck is the prototypical pro-style prospect. It really hardly even needs to be discussed beyond that. No player is a slam-dunk for NFL success, but we were to grade every part of a prospect's game per NFL requirements, I think Luck would probably grade above 90% in every category, compared to other prospects. What I'd be interested to see is if anyone thinks some part of his game would actually fall below that threshold. If anything gets brought up, it seems to be that "he doesn't have a super-duper strong arm." No, he probably can't throw it as far as JaMarcus Russell. But I bet he can throw it as far as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

I want more to people to answer my question above (and yes, under means pick #1, over means pick #2 and over)

I bet he goes #1. I think he is in the Same Situation as Bradford where people already know what they have and he could get Injured the whole Year and still be the Top Pick. The only way he does not go Number One is if he plays really bad like Jake Locker or Someone comes out of Nowhere and blows College football Up.

If you had to put down $100 right now on the Over/Under at 1.5 of what pick Andrew Luck will be when he is drafted, what would you bet on?

Hmmmm. Obviously #1 is the initial inkling but I guess the thought is a team that drafted a QB in the first or early 2nd round this year may have the top spot. I don't see Carolina, Tennessee, Jacksonville or Minnesota picking #1. Cincy is certainly a possibility but if they are picking #1, chances are that Andy Dalton really struggled. I think Carolina may of now set the precedent in this situation. With all that being said, put that $100 on Luck going #1.

I'd bet on Luck going #1. He just seems to have everything an NFL team wants in a QB.

Here's another question that I'm going to post on the podcast thread:

Assuming Luck has a good season, plays up to expectations, and declares for the 2012 Draft, who's the one player with the best chance to move ahead of him and be the #1 pick in the 2012 Draft.

Obviously anything could happen if Luck plays poorly this season, but I'm interested to know who people think could move ahead of Luck even if he plays well.

If Luck Plays Great no one will pass him, because they will have to have a Huge Year. If Luck has a Great Year and Declares for the 2012 NFL Draft he will go #1 Overall, if a team does not need a QB they will trade the Pick to someone who does need a QB.

honestly, i think it's way too early to say. would anyone have called cam newton the #1 at this time last year? i don't see a single mock from this site with him in the first round, let alone at #1.

again, my bet on luck falling is due solely to increased scrutiny. guys who start the year as everyone's consensus #1 almost never end up staying there.

Also, if somebody had told you going into the 2005 CFB season that Vince Young (who was seen as nothing more than a project and was seriously being considered as a WR by some) would go ahead of Matt Leinart, you would have slapped him in the face for such stupidity.

The regular season is over and its pretty clear that Luck in no way regressed from last year despite the changes on offense. He basically has answered every question from the end of last year and continues to be who we thought he was.

ESPN made this pretty cool page where Kiper & McShay go over every part of Lucks game in writing with little video sections also. They also rank him compared to Elway, Manning, & Matt Ryan on individual aspects also. I hope that they do this for more prospects also.