Caltrans is expected to meet with state legislators Monday to brief them on prospects for opening the new Bay Bridge eastern span as scheduled in early September - and at the moment, it doesn't look good.

The problem is Caltrans' proposed fix for high-strength rods that snapped in March when workers tightened them on giant seismic stabilizers on the $6.4 billion span. The 32 rods that broke had been weakened from hydrogen that seeped into the steel, a problem that officials are concerned could extend to some of the 2,300 other rods and bolts on the bridge.

Caltrans has done some testing of those steel fasteners, measuring their metallurgical properties, and officials say they are encouraged by the results. The agency has yet to start crucial tests on rods and bolts to measure the long-term cracking risk posed by exposure to the elements over time.

That testing, however, is not what could delay the scheduled Sept. 3 opening. The holdup is the solution Caltrans devised to anchor the seismic stabilizers to the bridge, and whether it can be manufactured in time.

Doing the rods' job

The fix involves fabricating steel saddles that will be strapped to each of two massive seismic stabilizers on the bridge using high-strength steel cables. They would do the job of the broken rods, holding the stabilizers to a concrete beam.

A steel fabricator working on the saddles has told Caltrans it cannot guarantee the structures will be ready in time for a Sept. 3 opening, according to a source with knowledge of the communications between the company and the state agency.

Part of the problem is that final plans for the $10 million saddle fix worked up by engineers for American Bridge/Fluor, the joint venture handling the eastern-span project, were slow in being delivered to the fabricator on Mare Island in Vallejo, said the source, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the project publicly.

Decision coming

As of last week, there was no decision on whether the bridge would open as scheduled.

Caltrans has to decide soon. On Monday, officials will meet with legislators behind closed doors in Sacramento about the project. Two days later, Caltrans is expected to announce its decision at a meeting of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission in Oakland.

Caltrans representatives would not comment on the status of the saddles for the seismic stabilizers. Bridge officials have said they will not open the new span unless a fix for the broken seismic rods is in place.

In addition to dealing with the failed rods, Caltrans has done a metallurgical survey of the more than 2,000 other rods and bolts on the span. All of them were manufactured to a hardness beyond what Caltrans allows on other bridges if the metal is coated in molten zinc.

The zinc-coating process, known as galvanization, can make it easier for hydrogen to enter the hardened steel and cause it to become brittle. The harder the steel, the more prone it can be to hydrogen invasion.

More tests

But measuring hardness is only part of the story.

Caltrans is also doing tests on some of the rods to measure a key factor they say was lacking in the 32 failed rods: toughness. That is the quality that allows steel to keep cracks from forming on the surface.

Caltrans officials say those tests are largely complete, and that they're encouraged about the rods' ability to endure in the short term without cracking. However, Caltrans has yet to do testing in a separate, crucial area: whether the rods and bolts will hold up over time in the hydrogen-rich marine air.

The tests require the construction of 11 giant steel rigs to allow the threaded ends of rods and bolts removed from the bridge to be submerged in salt water and then put under progressively increasing tension - a process that is supposed to simulate a decade of exposure to the elements. Caltrans has enlisted a team of consultants to guide the process.

However, the effort hit a snag when Caltrans scrapped an early plan to use recycled steel parts that had been used to support the suspension span during construction and decided to build the rigs from scratch, agency spokesman Andrew Gordon said.

Some experts wonder about the value of the elaborate tests.

"I have tried to simulate this - to me, it's a roll-of-the-dice kind of thing," said Russell Kane, a corrosion expert in Texas. "Most people don't want to run these tests because they could just as well give you something that is not representative as opposed to something that is representative."

Another expert, UC Berkeley materials science engineering Professor Tom Devine, said the tests will not add much to what is already known about the bridge bolts.

"You know what it is going to prove? That high-strength steel is susceptible to hydrogen-assisted cracking," Devine said.

"I have no confidence in any steel-related decision made by the people responsible for the design and construction of that Bay Bridge," he said. "If it has superior performance over time, that will be fortuitous, not a consequence of good engineering."