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Questionable '09 returns

RICK WILSON/The Times-UnionJaguars receiver Reggie Williams caught 10 touchdown passes last season but has struggled this year and has only scored three times.

Khalif Barnes, offensive tackle
After four years and 56 career starts, the team's 2005 second-round draft pick is an unrestricted free agent. He became a greater liability this season with powerful left guard Vince Manuwai missing practically the entire season. Barnes was flagged seven times for holding and contributed mightily to quarterback David Garrard absorbing 41 sacks, the most in team history since 2001. The Jaguars need an upgrade at several positions, but none more so than this one.
Odds on return: Call the moving company, he'll be gone.
Position options: Any attempt to sign a premium unrestricted free agent like Jordan Gross of the Carolina Panthers will carry a monster price tag. Look for the Jaguars, who are guaranteed to have a top-10 pick in the draft even if they win today, to target these four tackles - Mississippi's Michael Oher, Baylor's Jason Smith, Virginia's Eugene Monroe or Alabama's Andre Smith, an expected early entry - as their possible No. 1 pick.
Drayton Florence, cornerback
He parlayed some timely interceptions, including two against New England's Tom Brady in each of the last two postseasons, into a six-year, $36 million contract with the Jaguars. It hasn't paid dividends yet as Florence has zero interceptions this season. He's played better in recent weeks, but that $4.4 million salary in 2009 looks steep for someone relegated to the nickel packages most of this year.
Odds on return: Around 60 percent, because the Jaguars may want to recoup their investment. He's been a stand-up guy despite receiving deserved criticism.
Position options: Florence's struggles forced the team to move Brian Williams into his slot from safety. Cornerback is expensive in free agency and the Jaguars aren't likely to be shopping there. If there's a value pick in the middle of the draft, the Jaguars may try that as in 2005 with third-rounder Scott Starks.
Reggie Hayward, defensive end
This looked like a quality free agent pickup three years ago, but Hayward's effectiveness has been diminished by age and injuries. He looked terrific in win over Green Bay two weeks ago. He's due to make $5 million next season - a lot of money for just eight sacks in the past three years.
Odds on return: No better than 50 percent, because he turns 30 in March and the Jaguars desperately need to get younger along the defensive front.
Position options: The Jaguars swung for the fences in drafting Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves last year, so those guys must come around. Free agency is way too expensive, but this is too important a position to ignore in the draft. If the best available player happens to be a pass-rusher, you take him.
Cleo Lemon, quarterback
Given the durability of franchise quarterback David Garrard, it was a little peculiar that the Jaguars were willing to fork over $3 million in guaranteed money for a No. 2 quarterback. Lemon will make almost $1.8 million next season, still a lot for someone holding a clipboard.
Odds on return: About 60 percent.
Position options: The Jaguars almost have to draft a quarterback for developmental purposes. Lemon turns 30 before next season and Garrard took too much punishment this year. Whether it's a Curtis Painter (Purdue) or a project like Florida's Tim Tebow (if he comes out), find somebody in the draft for the future.
Brad Meester, center
He's an unrestricted free agent who turns 32 in March. With two separate biceps injuries since 2005, Meester isn't as durable as he once was, but his value to the cohesiveness of that offensive line is significant. The Jaguars will likely let him test the market to see what kind of salary he would command, then maybe see if he may return at the right price.
Odds on return: 50-50. This may be the Jags' toughest call. Meester wants to stay here, providing the pay cut from his $2.9 million is reasonable, and the team might not want too much O-line disruption.
Position options: The Jaguars learned in the first six games that Dennis Norman isn't a long-term answer at center. They could try to sign someone like the Ravens' Jason Brown, but a better scenario is to see if they can get a steal in the early part of the third round with Alabama's Antoine Caldwell or Louisville's Eric Wood.
Dennis Norman, guard
He held down the right guard spot after Milford Brown and Tutan Reyes struggled in replacing original starter Maurice Williams, who was hurt in pregame warmups of the season opener against Tennessee. Norman has struggled as the season wore on and was flagged five times for holding.
Odds on return: Slightly better than 50-50 because he provides backup help at two or three spots.
Position options: The Jaguars may look to get younger here because Williams and Manuwai are approaching 30 and coming off major injuries. This is usually one of the easier positions to find quality people, but the team has yet to have a guard make the Pro Bowl.
Mike Peterson, linebacker
The first big free-agent signee under Jack Del Rio paid huge dividends. But Peterson's age (32) and being an unrestricted free agent, not to mention his midseason fallout with the coach, means he will be looking for a new home in 2009. He would prefer to go to a contender, and New England has a fondness for acquiring veteran linebackers.
Odds on return: Zero percent.
Position options: The Jaguars look solid with the young corps of Justin Durant, Daryl Smith and Clint Ingram, but depth is a concern. Brian Iwuh and Thomas Williams are special-teamers only at this point, so it'd be a good idea to see what might fall to them in the draft.
Adam Podlesh, punter
His one big advantage over replacement Steve Weatherford is the Jaguars made him a fourth-round draft pick (2007), a high selection for a punter. He was placed on injured reserve after suffering a knee injury on Nov. 23 against Minnesota, but the Jaguars are only 20th in the NFL in gross and net punting average.
Odds on return: About 90 percent, but now it's a tough battle with Weatherford for the starting job in 2009.
Position options: Never draft a punter. There's always a serviceable one just a phone call away.
Jerry Porter, wide receiver
He goes to the head of the class as the biggest free-agent bust in Jaguars history. Not only did his 11 receptions cost the team almost $1 million per catch, Porter was one of the biggest negative influences in the locker room because of his cavalier attitude. He sealed the reputation he made in Oakland as a guy that doesn't react well to adverse circumstances.
Odds on return: Less than 5 percent. He's due to make $3.9 million in 2009, so cutting ties with Porter will be a significant salary cap hit, but the word is the Jaguars are prepared to move on.
Position options: With only Matt Jones, Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker as probable returnees next season, the Jaguars will be in replenishing mode. Forget any expensive free agent. Either take a flier with minimal salary cap implications like they did Troy Williamson or invest in a receiver on the second day of the draft.
Gerald Sensabaugh, strong safety
One of the few Jaguars this year who made great strides from 2007 and earned a starting job. As an unrestricted free agent, Sensabaugh picked a great time to lead the team with four interceptions (along with Rashean Mathis), which will increase his price tag significantly.
Odds on return: At best, 10 percent. Too much competition for his services in free agency likely means Sensabaugh wears another uniform next year.
Position options: Since Donovin Darius left, the Jaguars have been content to go with cheaper labor at this spot with either Sammy Knight or Sensabaugh. They'll find a reasonably-priced veteran or pluck a run-stuffing safety later in the draft.
Paul Spicer, defensive end
No doubt, the 2000 street free agent from Saginaw Valley State is one of the great overachievers in franchise history. Spicer's work ethic and leadership is a huge plus, but he's 33 and not as effective as last year, when he had a team-leading 7.5 sacks.
Odds on return: About 60 percent. Unlike Hayward, he can move inside to tackle and give the Jaguars some versatility.
Position options: The Jags could go for the home run by trying to sign Titans tackle Albert Haynesworth, but how hard will he play with all that guaranteed money in the bank? It's not a strong draft right in the defensive interior, so the Jaguars hope an influx of juniors coming out early will change things. Boston College's B.J. Raji and Mississippi's Peria Jerry are the top tackle prospects.
Fred Taylor, running back
One of the most popular Jaguars in history, but a tailback who turns 33 next month and scheduled to make $6 million next season isn't the definition of a bargain. Taylor may have one good year left in him, but the team is going to want a markdown on his price tag.
Odds on return: About 70 percent, and that's contingent upon Taylor reducing his payroll number to around $4 million because Maurice Drew is going to command more money and more carries.
Position options: Unless somebody too good to pass up falls to them in the draft, the Jaguars should continue to develop seldom-used Chauncey Washington and see if he can eventually be Drew's backup.
Reggie Williams, wide receiver
It should tell you all you need to know about Williams' impact that former personnel boss James "Shack" Harris recently acknowledged the 2004 first-round pick was one that "didn't work out." Despite his franchise-record 10 touchdowns for a receiver last year, Williams has regressed from 16.6 yards per catch in 2007 to 9.9 yards this year. He's become just another guy in the Jaguars' stable of so-so receivers.
Odds on return: Say goodbye. He will be an unrestricted free agent, so the Jaguars will let him test the market.
Position options: See Jerry Porter.
George Wrighster, tight end
The Jaguars have four tight ends on the active roster because they run a lot of double-tight sets, but Wrighster has fallen out of favor because he missed so much time while recovering from knee surgery. Backup Greg Estandia has terrific value as a special-teamer, and Richard Angulo is well-liked by position coach Mike Tice.
Odds on return: About 30 percent. Four tight ends is too many roster spots.
Position options: Quarterback David Garrard likes throwing to the tight end, and Marcedes Lewis is gradually making a better impact, though he's still not a big-time threat in the red zone. The Jaguars need a sure-handed tight end to make their offense more explosive. Lewis has to become that guy or find a second-day draft pick that fits the bill.
gene.frenette@jacksonville.com(904) 359-4540