All eyes on Capriles as Venezuela election set

People queue outside the military academy where Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez is lying in state in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, March 10, 2013. Chavez died on March 5 after a nearly two-year bout with cancer. He was 58. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)
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People queue outside the military academy where Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez is lying in state in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, March 10, 2013. Chavez died on March 5 after a nearly two-year bout with cancer. He was 58. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)
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"If he says he doesn't want to run I could totally understand that," Smilde said. "He is likely going to lose and if he loses this election he's probably going to be done."

On the streets of Caracas on Sunday, opinion was as divided as always in a country that became dramatically more polarized during Chavez's 14-year rule.

"It's not fair," said Jose Mendez, a 54-year-old businessman of the choice the opposition leader faces. "(Maduro) has an advantage, because of everything they have done since Chavez's death, all the sentiment they've created ... But the guy has nothing. He can't hold a candle to Chavez."

But Ramon Romero said the opposition was just making excuses, and had no chance of victory in any case.

"Now their odds are even worse," said the 64-year-old waiter and staunch Chavez supporter. "They don't care about anyone, and we (the voters) have been lifted out of darkness."

There was no indication that the opposition would sit out the vote altogether. A boycott of 2005 legislative elections was widely seen as disastrous for the opposition. In possession of every single seat, Chavez's camp was able to extend its hold on government, including stacking the Supreme Court with loyalists.

If Capriles does stay out, analysts say, the opposition would be wise to run fresher faces such as Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledesma or Henry Falcone, governor of Lara state and one of just three opposition governors. That would give them the opportunity to clearly articulate a platform and vision without damaging its top star. Capriles garnered 44 percent of October's votes, which was the most anyone had won against Chavez since he took office.

"Really what this campaign would be about is allowing the opposition to put themselves in position for the future, to show that they have some ideas for the country," Smilde said.