No. 12 Virginia Tech Hosts No. 2 Clemson in Saturday Night Showdown

By: Chris Coleman | Managing EditorSeptember 27, 2017October 18, 2017

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Ever since Will Grier’s last second pass hit the ground at 11:26 p.m. on the night of Sept. 3, Virginia Tech fans have been thinking about this moment. Ok, the truth is they were thinking about it well before September 3. But the Hokies had to get through West Virginia for the Clemson game to mean as much as it does. They did, and after brushing aside Delaware, East Carolina and Old Dominion, the biggest home game in many years is rapidly drawing near.

ESPN College Gameday is coming to town. The Hokies will host their first Saturday night home game since Saturday, Nov. 26, 2005 when they took on North Carolina in Lane Stadium. Clemson is unbeaten and ranked No. 2 in the country, and the Hokies come in at No. 12. In fact, this is the first time ever that two unbeaten top-12 teams have faced each other in Lane Stadium. Suffice to say, this one is a pretty big deal.

After hammering hapless Kent State to begin the season, Clemson notched back-to-back quality wins over Auburn (14-6) at home and Louisville (47-21) on the road to show that they are legit National Championship Contenders yet again. They then dispatched Boston College 34-7 last week, though that game was 7-7 going into the fourth quarter.

I’ve had the opportunity to watch Clemson play against Auburn and Louisville, and my opinion is that their offense isn’t as good or as explosive as it has been the last few years. However, their defense is better than it was a year ago, and it was already very good. Let’s take a closer look at the Tigers.

The Explosive Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne (5-foot-10, 200 pounds, Fr.) is probably the scariest player in the country with just 23 offensive touches. Despite his lack of usage, he leads the team in rushing with 292 yards. Check out the numbers of their top three rushers…

That’s not something you see very often. Etienne probably won’t touch the ball all that much against the Hokies, but when he does, Tech’s defense cannot afford to let him break free.

In case you’re wondering why Etienne isn’t getting more carries, and why he’s currently listed as the fourth running back on the depth chart, my guess is that like most true-freshmen he has been slow to adapt to pass blocking. He hasn’t caught a pass this year, so it seems as if the Clemson coaching staff doesn’t want him involved in the passing game at all at this point.

Virginia Tech and Clemson will battle again on Saturday night. (Photo by Ivan Morozov)

Kelly Bryant is a Much Different Player Than Deshaun Watson

I thought Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson was arguably the best quarterback in college football last season. He was a passer first and foremost, though he could hurt you with his legs as well. He’s now the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans in the NFL.

Watson had a lot of talented offensive players around him at Clemson. He had explosive receivers such as Artavis Scott and Mike Williams, and Wayne Gallman was a very good running back. All four of those guys declared for the NFL Draft after last season.

Kelly Bryant isn’t as natural a passer as Watson, and he doesn’t have a Mike Williams on the outside. Nor does he have anybody at running back who is as consistent as Gallman. Overall, this Clemson offense just doesn’t seem as dangerous to me as last year’s version. But, Bryant’s running ability concerns me a lot.

As we all know, mobile quarterbacks have given the Hokies trouble over the years, especially bigger mobile quarterbacks like Bryant (6-foot-4, 220 pounds , Jr.). In fact, last December I wrote a big TSL Pass article that detailed Tech’s difficulties stopping mobile quarterbacks. I’ll sum it up like this…

Opposing quarterback rushing average in Tech wins since the start of 2013: 26.9 yards per game
Opposing quarterback rushing average in Tech losses since the start of 2013: 78.2 yards per game

The Hokies are 0-10 since the start of 2013 when the opposing quarterback has rushed for 100 yards or more.

Bryant has that capability. In fact, he went over 100 yards against a solid Boston College defense this past weekend. He can be a workhorse, and he carried the ball 22 times for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Eagles. A quarterback that can be a weapon in a power running game negates the numbers advantage that the defense has against a traditional running game. Virginia Tech fans know all about that, with what they saw from Jerod Evans last season.

Bryant has been an effective passer this year, though hardly a dominant one. Here are his game by game stats…

He looked very good against Louisville, but he also looked mediocre against Auburn and bad against Boston College. Considering that there is no dominant receiver like Mike Williams on the outside for Clemson, I’m expecting Bud Foster to load the box and play tight man coverage against the Tiger receivers. His top priority in this game will be stopping the Clemson running game, which is spearheaded by Bryant.

Travon McMillian and the Tech offense might not find much running room against the Clemson defensive line. (Photo by Don Montague)

The Clemson Defensive Line

The most dominant unit on either team will be Clemson’s outstanding defensive line. Here are the starters…

That’s four starters who are rated among the top four players at their position in their respective draft classes. You can’t find too many defensive lines like this one throughout the history of college football. It’s essentially an NFL defensive line.

The old Miami lines that Virginia Tech used to face back in the Big East days were extremely talented. So was that unit the Hokies faced in Baton Rouge back in 2007. But I’m not sure that any of them were as good as this particular defensive line.

Austin Bryant is arguably the least talented of the starting group, but he leads the team with 6.5 tackles for loss and five sacks. He’s a dominant football player, but by NFL terms he might only be the fourth best defensive lineman on his own team.

How deep are the Tigers? Let’s take a look at the numbers of snaps each starter plays in comparison to his primary backups…

Clemson isn’t quite as deep at defensive end as some would have you believe. Defensive end Logan Rudolph (26 snaps) was lost for the season after two games, and that hurt depth. Those backups haven’t played very many snaps at all. However, their backup defensive tackles have experience. Those guys are needed because Dexter Lawrence can only play so many snaps at tackle at 340 pounds.

Last year, the Hokies managed 102 rushing yards against the Clemson defense, which is almost miraculous considering their talent level up front. Justin Fuente and Brad Cornelsen like to use a lot of misdirection, which helps against an attacking front like Clemson. Misdirection will be needed again on Saturday night, both in the passing game and the running game. I view Clemson’s defensive line as the key to the game. If the Hokies can manage to not get dominated up front, they’ll have a chance to win.

Susceptible in the Secondary?

Clemson is dealing with some injuries in the defensive backfield right now.

Edmond is a backup who has been out since the early part of the game in Clemson’s win over Auburn. No injury report has been released yet (that will happen Thursday), but he seems doubtful at this point. He played quality snaps as a backup last year, though I don’t consider him to be a big loss unless Mullen and Fields can’t play. Fields has started one game this year and played 78 defensive snaps, while Mullen has started all four games.

We know that Ryan Carter (5-foot-9, 180 pounds, r-Sr.) will start at one of the cornerback positions no matter what. He has started four games this year, and 13 a year ago. Right now, he is Clemson’s most experienced healthy cornerback.

What concerns me about Clemson’s injury situation is that it will likely provide an opportunity for their most talented defensive back, former 5-star recruit AJ Terrell (6-foot-1, 190 pounds, Fr.). Terrell has played 85 snaps this season, and nobody has completed a pass on him thus far, according to the advanced stats provided by Pro Football Focus. (Apparently they focus on the college game, too.) He’s a very gifted player, but he’s also a true freshman, and there’s a reason he is currently listed at No. 3 on the depth chart.

Van Smith (5-foot-11, 185 pounds, Jr.) starts at free safety, with Tanner Muse (6-foot-2, 225 pounds, r-So.) at strong safety. The versatile K’Von Wallace (6-feet, 196 pounds, So.) is a Virginia native who can line up at a number of spots. Wallace grew up a Virginia Tech fan and wanted a Virginia Tech offer, but he did not receive one until very late in the process, after the transition from Frank Beamer to Justin Fuente. He has worked at safety and cornerback during his Clemson career, but with the current injuries at corner, he is most likely to be used at that position this weekend. He has started one game this year and played 129 snaps on the season.

I do believe Clemson is susceptible in the secondary. The statistics do not show it, as the Tigers rank No. 2 nationally in passing success rate and No. 8 in Passing IsoPPP (big plays) according to Football Study Hall. However, a quick study shows that Clemson hasn’t faced major competition when it comes to the passing game. We all know about Boston College’s struggling offense, and Auburn’s offense has been below average since Nick Marshall left. It’s true that Lamar Jackson is a great college player, but his weakness right now is the precision passing game.

I believe Virginia Tech’s passing game is better than any that Clemson has faced thus far, and I think Josh Jackson is better than any quarterback they’ve faced in terms of pure passing ability. Lamar Jackson has a ton of arm talent, but he’s not as advanced as Josh as a natural passer. The Hokies can present some problems for the Tigers in the passing game, but they can only take advantage of it if they can keep Josh Jackson upright. As I said early, slowing down the Clemson defensive line is the biggest factor in this game for Virginia Tech’s offense.

Playing a “Clean” Game

The Hokies rank 14th in the country in total offense, and their defense ranks 11th nationally in S&P+. However, perhaps more important for the Hokies is playing a “clean” football game on Saturday night. By that, I mean winning the turnover battle, not committing silly penalties and outgaining Clemson in hidden yardage.

Through four games, Virginia Tech has been dominant in each of those phases. The Hokies have committed just two turnovers this season, while their opponents have committed seven. Meanwhile, Clemson is minus-2 in turnover margin this season.

Where Tech has really been dominant is in penalty yards and hidden yards. Let’s look at it on a game-by-game basis.

The Hokies are outgaining their opponents by an average of 84.75 per game in hidden yardage. When you combine that with a plus-5 turnover margin, you’ve got a very efficient football team.

Virginia Tech will have to be efficient with hidden yardage and turnovers against Clemson again on Saturday night. If they can get an extra field goal or touchdown because of field position, and perhaps finish plus-1 or plus-2 in turnover margin, they will have an excellent chance to win the game. However, that is easier said than done against a team with the overall talent of the Clemson Tigers.

In case you are wondering, I calculated the same numbers for Clemson. Here they are…

Those numbers are a bit misleading. Clemson has scored a lot, and they don’t have a kicker who can put the ball through the end zone on almost every kickoff like Virginia Tech’s Joey Slye. That means opponents will rack up a number of kickoff return yards. Still, Tech’s numbers have been impressive, and they will present a challenge for the Tigers in this phase of the game.

Breaking it down a little further shows that Saturday night’s game will feature two of the most disciplined teams in the country.

Both of these teams have done a great job of not shooting themselves in the foot.

Special Teams

We won’t spend too much time covering special teams, because you saw a lot of the return numbers above, plus the return game can be a crapshoot at times.

Both of these teams are certainly capable on special teams, but both have some issues as well. For Clemson, starting placekicker Greg Huegel tore his ACL on a tough luck play in practice last week. His replacement, Alex Spence (6-foot-2, 200 pounds, r-Jr.), has never attempted a field goal in a college game, and he missed an extra point last week against Boston College.

On the other hand, Joey Slye has had a tough year for the Hokies. He missed two short field goals against West Virginia, and another against Old Dominion, despite the fact that he was automatic from inside 40 yards his first three years. The battle between Spence and Slye could be key.

Both teams have athletes, and both teams are capable of breaking a big return at any point. Virginia Tech kickoff returner James Clark missed last week’s Old Dominion game with an injury, and its unknown if he’ll be available this week.

Clemson’s most dangerous return man is kickoff returner Travis Etienne, who we discussed earlier. Fortunately, Joey Slye has put 96.7 percent of his kickoffs through the end zone for touchbacks, a mark which is a full 16 percent ahead of second place Austin Seibert of Oklahoma. Slye’s leg should be able to neutralize Etienne in the kickoff return game.

The Hokies had no reason to hang their heads when they left the field after last year’s ACC Championship Game. (Photo by Don Montague)

Final Thoughts

I didn’t think Dabo Swinney was a good hire for Clemson back in 2007, but he sure proved me wrong. Swinney is a great recruiter, and I realize everybody likes to talk about that, but the best thing he’s done during his tenure at Clemson is create a new culture. X’s and O’s are important, and talent is important, but I’d argue that developing the right culture is more important than any of that.

I’ve watched Clemson play football for a long time and outside of perhaps that 37-0 shellacking the Hokies laid on them in Death Valley in 1998, I’ve never seen a Clemson team that didn’t have good players. In fact, most Clemson teams have had a lot of good players. Recruiting hasn’t been their problem. Toughness was their problem. The Hokies used to regularly beat up on the Tigers, and Clemson looked soft in the process.

Swinney changed that. He didn’t do it overnight. First he hired Chad Morris to fix the offense, and later he hired Brent Venables to fix the defense. I expect it was Venables who also helped develop the Tigers into a tougher football team, similar to what Phil Elmassian did at Virginia Tech back in 1993.

Building Clemson into a national contender hasn’t been an overnight process. The Tigers went 7-6 in Swinney’s first full season, and 6-7 in his third full season in 2010. They won the ACC in 2011, beating Virginia Tech twice that year, but they were smashed by West Virginia 70-33 in the Orange Bowl. In 2013, they had their first big opportunity at primetime football when they were ranked third in the country and No. 5 Florida State came to town. ESPN hyped the program, the pregame bus ride, the Howard’s Rock entrance, etc. The nation’s eyes were on the Clemson Tigers that night, and they had a chance to show that they were ready to take the next step.

Florida State annihilated them 51-14. Clemson won the National Championship last year, and almost won it in 2015 as well. Yet in 2013, they were losing by 37 in their own house. Sometimes it takes a while to build a program and establish a culture. It took Swinney a while, but he kept plugging away, he made the right hires, and now they are a legitimate national contender and one of the physically toughest programs in the country.

Justin Fuente is further along in his second year as a head coach than Dabo Swinney was. Fuente didn’t have to come in and completely change the culture. It won’t take him years to establish toughness, because the Hokies were already a pretty tough team when he took over. In many ways, he’s in a better position than Swinney was back in the 2008 and 2009 timeframe.

But in other ways, he is further behind. Fuente didn’t inherit the same type of talent that Swinney inherited back in 2007, nor has he had a full decade to build up that talent and nurture it. His program is in its infancy. Swinney’s is grown up and developed. If the Hokies can manage to pull off this win just 21 months after Justin Fuente took over the program, it would be a pretty incredible feat.

If the Hokies don’t win on Saturday, don’t be disappointed. Even if they lose by some crazy score like 51-14, don’t let that get you down, because that’s exactly what Clemson did in a similar situation back in 2013. It can take a while to build up a program into a legit contender. Ask Frank Beamer. Ask Dabo Swinney. Those guys know.

I think Virginia Tech has a solid chance to win the game. I trust the Hokie coaching staff. I think they can give Clemson some problems in certain areas. But I can’t in good conscience pick Tech when I know that the Tigers have an advantage in the trenches, and I know they have an advantage in overall talent. I think it will be a good one, but…

Prediction: Clemson 24, Virginia Tech 20

Will Stewart’s Take: Let’s get the mystery out of the way early: I’m not going to pick Virginia Tech to win.

Sure, the Hokies could win, and it won’t surprise me if they do. Virginia Tech is an exceptionally well-coached team, and well-coached teams always have a chance. Tech nearly pulled it off in the ACC Championship Game last season.

Chris has already detailed some of the ways in which the Hokies can give themselves a chance: primarily, win the turnover and special teams and hidden yardage battles. Maximize your advantages and minimize your disadvantages. Keep it close, and let fate take over the rest and see where things end up.

But if they played this game ten times, Clemson would probably win seven or eight of them. The Tigers are much farther along the curve as a program and are more battled-tested than Justin Fuente’s Hokies, who are working up to it, but aren’t there yet. Fuente’s program is still rebuilding — and doing a darn good job of it — but has a ways to go.

Saturday night is an important step along the path, win or lose. It will be a great showcase for Blacksburg and for Virginia Tech football, and an important milestone in the evolution of the program under Fuente. Win or lose, this is a victory. You don’t hear that very often, but I firmly believe it.

So, Hokie fans, enjoy the moment. This is a big step for the program. Do your part to make Lane Stadium a pit on Saturday night. (Pace yourself during the day, know what I mean?)

I see this one as a close battle most of the way, with Clemson pulling away at the end. I hope I’m wrong, because that (being wrong) would be fun.

Will’s Prediction: Clemson 27, Virginia Tech 13

Ricky LaBlue’s Take: Let me take you back to the 2014 season.

Virginia Tech was unranked, and was making their first appearance in The Horsehoe vs. Ohio State. The Buckeyes were a top-10 team that year, and Tech really had zero business being on the field for that game. Still, Virginia Tech dialed up the right gameplan defensively, and Michael Brewer played a gritty game in Tech’s 35-21 win.

I bring that up, because I see some similarities in this game. Clemson’s talent is better than Virginia Tech’s at nearly every position. The Tigers are perennial national championship contenders, while Justin Fuente and the Hokies are honestly just getting off the ground. Virginia Tech, on paper, should not win this game.

But the game isn’t played on paper. It’s not played in recruiting rankings, it’s not played in computer-based stats and it isn’t based on last year’s results. The game is played on the field. And because of that, I’m picking Virginia Tech to win this game.

Think about it. Clemson’s offense scored seven points in three quarters, at home, vs. Boston College. Their offense is not even close to the level it was last season, as Chris Coleman pointed out earlier on. That gameplan Bud Foster used vs. Ohio State in 2014, I’m expecting that exact same gameplan on Saturday night. Foster is going to force Kelly Bryant to beat him with his arm, and I don’t think Bryant can do it.

Call me a fool, that’s fine. I’ll take the heat. But I have more confidence in Brad Cornelsen’s ability to manufacture points against this Clemson defense, which lost talent from last season as well, than I do Bryant lighting up Virginia Tech on the backend. So, I’m rolling with Tech.

I’m with Ricky. I’ve told non-VT folks before that Blacksburg is occasionally subjected to unique weather micro-climates on Autumn Saturdays. I’m referring specifically to the phenomenon in which the sky falls on a hapless opponent in Lane Stadium. The crowd will make a huge difference. Clemson will make mistakes; and after they get behind, they will make more. By all rights, we should only have a 25% chance to win. But CJF, staff, and players believe. I do too. I’m thinking Dabo and his Tigers will be getting a nice serenade of “Na Na, Hey Hey, Goodbye” around 11:15 PM Saturday night. Go Hokies!

My concern for this game is injuries. There were a lot of dings/nicks last week that have not been discussed much (outside of losing DD of course). Is McMillan healthy? Is Peoples healthy? Is Cam healthy? These things concern me in this game…

Shouldn’t you include a +25 yards in return for every kickoff that is not returned? I think that would make those numbers more reasonable as it looks like we are dominating in the kicking game. I know we are doing very well, but the return yardage is not telling the actual story because we have a much higher percentage of kickoffs downed than other schools. Great preview by the way!

I have brought up this point and others WRT hidden yard in the past. You are on the right track. Touchbacks give you 25 return yards on a kickoff. Also, you must consider where the return ends not the yards. If you get to the 30 that’s +5 hidden yards whether the return starts at the 29 (1 yard return) or the end zone (30 yard return). Another miscalculated factor in hidden yards is touchbacks on punts.

Nice article, but I don’t agree with this statement, “The Hokies will host their first Saturday night home game since Saturday, Nov. 26, 2005 when they took on North Carolina in Lane Stadium.” I know that VT hosted “The U” last year for a Saturday home night game, because I attended that game.

We played Miami on Thursday last year. I believe the last true night game in Lane on a Saturday was Clemson in 2006. I know we haven’t had one since I enrolled in 08 unless you count games that ended at night but started during the day.

Can someone go back and look at how many yards avg opposing qb’s had on Bud Foster when he had Ben Taylor, Xavier Adibi, and Tremaine in the line backing corp? Best way to neutralize a big strong running QB is with a bigger stronger Madman at linebacker. Hokies thirty one Tigers seventeen.

I usually dodge picking these type games, but I got a feeling VT might pull this one out. Fuente and his staff might put it all on the line Saturday night. Be a great game for both teams and the ACC. Just come out injury free for both teams. I like Dabo

“I’m expecting Bud Foster to load the box and play tight man coverage against the Tiger receivers”
that line scares me. When we play a lot of man coverage is when a running QB breaks contain and goes for a ton of yards in the game. I hope we have a spy that can track him down if he does break contain.

I don;t really think our offense is going to move the ball against Clemson. We are going to face pressure from their DL. I am not confident in any of the OL to really hold up against an onslaught, especially if they bring LB or safety blitzes just because they can. They likely don’t have to but if they want to toy with us and overwhelm us… I don’t have confidence in our RBs to stretch to the perimeter or get through the middle. If we don’t pussy-foot around with cutesy calls or slow-developing plays, we can move the ball with a short-to-intermediate passing game. THis is the key. I used to say it when Stinespring was the OC and we would get sacked and punt because of slow-developing plays. Our offense was either flanker screen or deep. We needed a short-to-intermediate passing attack that could get 7-18 yards. That is the key. Sustain drives. Don’t have to be greedy and set Jackson up for sacks or pressure. Get the ball out quickly. Recognize there is space in front of many WRs and just take it. Move the chains. Please don’t get into a routine of throw on first incomplete and then run on 2nd and long… and then punt. So I think Phillips can do some damage. I think a RB out of the backfield can do some damage. A TE down the seam…

Defensively, not sure about the Bear (over-hyped) but yes, see us striving to stop the run but we cant give up pass plays over the middle. LBs can completely vacate the middle. Hopefully Edmunds brothers have a great game. Hopefully the secondary is up to speed and do not allow anyone to get behind them ala the ECU early first quarter…..

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