Mark Cavendish, just as he did in 2012, goes into the final few days of the Giro d'Italia with a narrow lead in the points standings and in the knowledge that, while victory would give him a "full house" of points jerseys from all three major Tours, the outcome is largely out of his hands. Sunday's final stage into Brescia is made for him but if the results do not fall his way in the next three days that could be irrelevant.

Cavendish began Wednesday's stage across the Veneto to Vicenza with a 10-point lead over Cadel Evans, but by the finish, where the Australian took 10th behind the stage winner Giovanni Visconti, that advantage was cut to just four points. The problem for Cavendish is that Evans lies second overall and will be involved in the fight for stage honours in the next three days when the race enters the mountains and the Manxman is unlikely to score.

It is precisely the same scenario as last year – when Cavendish's rival was Joaquim Rodríguez of Spain – and while Evans will be going for the win in Thursday's time trial, Cavendish will have to hope breakaway groups contest the stage finishes ahead of the overall contenders, winning the bulk of the points. The intermediate sprints on Friday and Saturday are located after major climbs, meaning that his best hope is a clean sweep of the intermediates and finish on Sunday, when he could rake in 35 points. If he is within that margin of Evans on Sunday morning, he will have a chance.

Late in the stage, the Manxman was sprinting for the minor placings in intermediate sprints, gleaning every point he could, underlining that this will go down to the wire. Over the 5km Crosara climb less than 20km from the finish, Cavendish was unable to hang on to the strongest riders on the steepest section of the ascent, although he gave it everything, bent over his bike at all kinds of improbable angles, with his face clearly displaying the effort. It was a brutal, brief battle, and it went against him.

Over the top, he was a minute behind the lead group of about 30 – the extent to which the peloton had been whittled down underlines the scale of the task he faced – and was unable to regain contact, in spite of having the assistance of four team-mates in the Omega Pharma-Quickstep squad. The descent was narrow, twisting and initially dangerous, favouring a lone rider; Visconti was that man.

The three-times Italian champion, a stage winner on Sunday high on the Galibier pass in France, had attacked on the toughest part of the climb, and used the descent to the full. He held on to a narrow lead into the city of Palladian architecture, a legendary location in cycling culture as the home of the Campagnolo component makers. That gave the Spanish Movistar team their third stage win in as many racing days.

On Thursday the final phase of racing in the Giro begins with a 20km mountain time trial from Mori to Polsa, just to the east of Lake Garda. That should shake up the top of the standings again, with Evans's fine showing in the hilly latter half of the individual time trial 11 days ago hinting that he may regain at least some time on Vincenzo Nibali. Thursday's stage at least looks set to happen as planned, but the weather is set to intervene once again over the following two days' mountain stages.

Snow is expected on both days, down to 850m altitude on Friday – when the day's highest climb, the Stelvio pass, is over 2,600m, where temperatures are forecast for a maximum of -6C – and as low as 1,500m on Saturday, when the finish is at Tre Cime di Lavaredo, at an altitude of 2,300m. The organisers have said that at present they expect the race to proceed as scheduled, but it is reported that they have been looking at alternative routes for both stages.