Heaviest 1-day rain in Oklahoma City history; 92L fizzles

Oklahoma City's rainiest day in history brought rampaging floods to the city and surrounding areas yesterday, as widespread rain amounts of 8 - 11 inches deluged the city. Fortunately, no confirmed deaths or injuries have been blamed on the mayhem, though damage is extensive. Oklahoma City's Will Rogers Airport received 7.62" of rain yesterday, smashing the record for the rainiest day in city history. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the city's previous rainiest day occurred September 22, 1970, when 7.53 inches fell. Some rivers continue to rise due to all the rain, and the Canadian River east of downtown Oklahoma City is four feet over flood stage, with major flooding expected today. You can track the flooding using our wundermap with the USGS Flood layer turned on.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for the period June 14 - 15, 2010, during the Oklahoma City floods. A large swath of 8 - 10 inches of rain (dark red colors) was indicated, from Oklahoma City northeastwards.

An inordinate number of major U.S. floods this yearWe've had an inordinate number of severe floods in the U.S. so far this year. The worst was the May Tennessee flood, which killed 31 people--the highest death toll from a non-tropical cyclone flooding event in the U.S. since 1994, and the most devastating disaster in Tennessee since the Civil War. The Tennessee floods were rated as a 1000-year flood for Middle Tennessee, West Tennessee, South Central and Western Kentucky and northern Mississippi. Two-day rain totals in some areas were greater than 19 inches.Last Friday's disastrous flash flood in Albert Pike Recreation Area, Arkansas, killed twenty people. That flood was triggered by 8+ inches of rain that fell in just a few hours over the rugged mountains west of Hot Springs. And in March, record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that fell on Providence, Rhode Island, made March that city's wettest month in recorded history.

All of these flooding events were associated with airmasses though brought record-breaking warm temperatures to surrounding regions of the country. For example, during the overnight hours when the June 11 flood in Arkansas occurred, fifty airports in the Southern and Midwestern U.S. had their highest minimum temperatures on record. During the 1000-year flood in Tennessee, 51 warm minimum temperatures records were set in the eastern half of the U.S. on May 1, and 97 records on May 2. Rhode Island's record wettest March also happened to be its record warmest March. And the air mass that spawned yesterday's Oklahoma City floods set record warm minimum temperatures at 22 airports across the central and Eastern portions of the U.S. on Monday. All this is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record warm temperatures are present. The total number of airports in the U.S. considered for these comparisons is around 500, so we're talking about significant portions of the U.S. being exposed to these record-breaking warm airmasses this year. For the spring months of March - May, it was the 21st warmest such period in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. At the 500 or so largest airports in the U.S., daily high temperature records outnumbered low temperature records by about a factor 2.5, 1200 to 508. Record high minimums this spring outnumbered record low maximums by 1163 to 568. So far in June, record daily highs have outpaced record lows by 176 to 13, and record high minimums have outpaced record low maximums, 419 to 62.

Flooding and global warmingGroisman et al. (2004) found that in the U.S. during the 20th century, there was a 16% increase in cold season (October - April) "heavy" precipitation events (greater than 2 inches in one day), a 25% increase in "very heavy" precipitation events (greater than 4 inches in one day), and a 36% rise in "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events.) A sharp rise in extreme precipitation is what is predicted by global warming models in the scientific literature Hegerl et al. (2004). According the landmark 2009 U.S. Climate Impact Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, "the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places." Most of this increase came since 1970, due to the approximate 1°F increase in U.S. average temperature since 1970. That 1°F increase in temperature means that there is 4% more moisture in the atmosphere, on average. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).

Dr. Joe Romm over at climateprogress.org has an excellent interview with Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center of Atmospheric Research on the subject of heavy precipitation events and global warming. Dr. Trenberth is the world's leading expert on water vapor in the atmosphere, and he comments that "since the 1970s, on average, there's about a 4% increase in water vapor over the Atlantic Ocean, and when that gets caught into a storm, it invigorates the storm so the storm itself changes, and that can easily double the influence of that water vapor and so you can get up to an 8% increase, straight from the amount of water vapor that's sort of hanging around in the atmosphere. This is reasonably well established." Dr. Trenberth further comments, "Now the physical cause for this is very much related to the water vapor that flows into these storms. And these kinds of storms, well all storms for that matter, reach out on average--this is very much a gross average--about 4 times the radius or 16 times the area of the region that's precipitating, the rain. And for these kinds of storms a lot of the moisture is coming out of the sub-tropical Atlantic and even the tropical Atlantic; some of it comes out of the Gulf of Mexico. And so the moisture actually travels about 2000 miles where it gets caught up in these storms and then it rains down. And the key thing is, that in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic the sea temperatures are at very high levels and in fact they're the highest on record at the moment right in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It's going to be interesting to see what that does for this hurricane season coming up."

We cannot say that any of this year's flooding disasters were definitely due to global warming, and part of the reason for this year's numerous U.S. flooding disasters is simply bad luck. However, higher temperatures do cause an increased chance of heavy precipitation events, and it is likely that the flooding in some of this year's U.S. flooding disasters were significantly enhanced by the presence of more water vapor in the air due to global warming. We can expect a large increase in flooding disasters in the U.S. and worldwide if the climate continues to warm as expected.

Figure 2. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

Funding issues threaten hundreds of streamgagesAccording to the USGS web site, river stage data from 292 streamgages has been discontinued recently, or is scheduled for elimination in the near future due to budget cuts. In Tennessee, 16 streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. Five gages in Arkansas are slated for elimination this year. Hardest hit will be Pennsylvania, which will lose 30 of its 258 streamgages. With over 50 people dead from two flooding disasters already this year, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by cutting funding for hundreds of streamgages. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming.

Figure 3. Streamgages that have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. Funds for these 292 threatened streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Dry air disrupting 92LInvest 92L, which yesterday was a remarkably well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season, has fizzled, due to dry air. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, and water vapor satellite loops show that the storm has wrapped a large amount of dry air to the west into the storm's center of circulation. With the storm continuing to track west-northwest to northwest into dryer air, the prospects for 92L developing into a tropical depression appear dim. With wind shear expected to rise from its current levels of 10 - 15 knots to 20 - 25 knots on Wednesday, the combination of shear and dry air should be able to pretty much destroy 92L on Wednesday. Shear values will likely increase to 30 - 40 knots by Friday, when 92L will move into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a window of opportunity this afternoon for 92L to fend off the dry air and organize into a tropical depression. One advantage the storm has it that it has developed a well-formed surface circulation. The low-level center of circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a moderate (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I would put the chances a bit lower, at 20%. Even if 92L does develop into a tropical depression, it is highly unlikely to cause any trouble for the Lesser Antilles Islands, since wind shear and dry air will probably destroy the system before it can reach the islands.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. The low-level circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. A small clump of heavy thunderstorms is located just east of the exposed center of circulation.

Elsewhere in the tropicsNone of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. There is a small swirl of low clouds visible in satellite imagery at 8N, 22W, just off the coast of Africa, associated with a tropical wave. This circulation is under wind shear of about 20 knots, which is probably too high for such a small circulation to survive in.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecastLight, predominantly southwesterly to westerly winds of 5 - 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico most of this week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The more westerly wind direction is expected to maintain a slow (1/2 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by the end of the week. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoonTune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Why did 92L die so quickly?2) Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?3) What damage could a hurricane do to oil drilling platforms and underwater pipes at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico?

Thats a good point. You'd think that we'd talk about those more too. But, then most of those storms head away from Mexico and out to sea. I do think that you hear about them when there is either a very large one, or if indeed it is heading towards the mainland.

Hey, thanks for the response, I appreciate it. One of those has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression, and its path hugs the coast.. so it will most likely impact Acapulco, Zihuatenejo and if it doesn't peter out, Puerto Vallarta and points north. Up here in the highlands, well it would be a rare event for one of them to turn and come my way, but if the storm is big enough and close enough to the coast, we do get some effects from them.

Its just sort of frustrating, in his post above Dr. Masters says....Elsewhere in the Tropics....and then goes on to say NOTHING about what's happening in the pacific...it just frustrates me that it is so hard to find good info on what's going on here. When I first moved to Mexico, I lived in Manzanillo, and the second month I was there we had a hurricane. Not only could I not get info on it from the web....like should I evacuate....but even the local radio announcers were frustrated, they had no idea what was going on, what course the hurricane was on, if it was coming inland...tidal surge info....that was 7 years ago and things are a little better now, but not much.Sorry to rant, I would just like more info, weather fascinates me, wish I had studied it when I was younger, I can't even find info like if la Nina is going to cause more rain or less rain here in the highlands. I live in a very poor area so I guess we just get overlooked. Water resources are a huge local issue, and we definitely would benefit from more rain, but I also know that in some communities, it can cause problems like it did last February when we had 3 days of rain with totals we don't usually see in a month of rainy season. Again, sorry to rant, I just wish I had more weather data about my region available. I'm in the highlands of Michoacan state.

Quoting xaratanga:Dr. Masters (and all those who comment here), could you maybe include more comments/info on the east pacific tropical weather, your blog seems to focus more in the Atlantic and Gulf. Right now there are two invests in the pacific, close to each other, and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of info/predictions/discussion of these things. I live in Mexico, in the central highlands, there are over 1 million Americans living in Mexico and a lot of us are interested in pacific storm development and how it might affect us. We do not have a lot of good information available to us. I appreciate all the info posted here, and hope to see more on the east pacific soon. Thank you.

Thats a good point. You'd think that we'd talk about those more too. But, then most of those storms head away from Mexico and out to sea. I do think that you hear about them when there is either a very large one, or if indeed it is heading towards the mainland.

Dr. Masters (and all those who comment here), could you maybe include more comments/info on the east pacific tropical weather, your blog seems to focus more in the Atlantic and Gulf. Right now there are two invests in the pacific, close to each other, and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of info/predictions/discussion of these things. I live in Mexico, in the central highlands, there are over 1 million Americans living in Mexico and a lot of us are interested in pacific storm development and how it might affect us. We do not have a lot of good information available to us. I appreciate all the info posted here, and hope to see more on the east pacific soon. Thank you.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:At least JB is putting out something that is quantifiable in the next year and a half. Unlike Gore and your other heros, whose forecasts we won't be able to verify for decades...

Hers a JB redux:

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

From June 2006

http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807

"Gray acknowledges that we've had some warming the past 30 years. "I don't question that," he explains. "And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."

I think that this is probably a fair assessment. Maybe they're waiting to see how it weathers the next round of heavy shear it'll encounter? Didn't someone mention 30-50kt shear coming soon? If so, that maybe the delay. Right now the convection blow-up is impressive...

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:No classification any time soon, imo. The only time that 92L will be classified is if and when it gets into the Caribbean with a circulation.

I think that this is probably a fair assessment. Maybe they're waiting to see how it weathers the next round of heavy shear it'll encounter? Didn't someone mention 30-50kt shear coming soon? If so, that maybe the delay. Right now the convection blow-up is impressive...

I think that is part of the problem here, I dont think we have had 1 shot from ASCAT or Windsat that has shown the entire circulation of 92L

I agree, it's nearly impossible to verify an LLC in a developing depression without a good ASCAT pass. Especially one that has a large CDO covering everything up. Maybe seeing a lot of direct to TS this year unless there happens to be a buoy or ship in the area.

At least JB is putting out something that is quantifiable in the next year and a half. Unlike Gore and your other heros, whose forecasts we won't be able to verify for decades...

Hers a JB redux:

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

I guess the idea is that the climate bill would charge every American one dollar a day and this would help cool the earth. Well being the kind of person I am, I will only charge you a dime. How about that! In fact, my introductory offer is this: Send me no money now If in the next 18 months the earth does not cool from where it is, then you can go with their plan and I will have no qualms about it. After all if their ideas are right, and co2 is on the increase, why should the temp not increase, yet alone as I say, decrease

And how about all those "green jobs" Has anyone taken a look at what is going on in Spain, where the government dumped all the money into Green Jobs. Go take a look at that miracle.

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

On second thought, save your dime.. you will need it with this crew of bait and switchers, because they will taking your money anyway, and in this case its for a sham and a scam.

Speaking of ...never mind, I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

Between Cap and Trade and things like this, you wonder

Two things.1) solar activity is on the increase, which makes it HIGHLY unlikely we'll see any significant cooling in the next couple of years2) for how many years are people like Bastardi (and Dr. Gray said it 3 years ago) going to say, "No worries. The earth will cool down."

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:Do you need glasses? It is completely evident that there is a closed surface low, it can be viewed using satellite imagery or microwave data. ASCAT should be in within 30 minutes, we shall see...

Yeah. The NHC might possibly declare it. The only reason it's at 10% is because it will hit shear soon. I doubt it, though.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:Do you need glasses? It is completely evident that there is a closed surface low, it can be viewed using satellite imagery or microwave data. ASCAT should be in within 30 minutes, we shall see...

Quoting hurricane23:Visible sat imagery this morning in my view does not show a closed surface circulation but its really tough to be sure with with convection covering up the lower clouds. Took a peak at AMSU and it only showed easterly winds.There wont be much of an impact on the islands which is whats important here. Very hostile environment just ahead.

adrian

Your correct...this is in the midlevels. You can also see clearly just below 92L llclouds moving WNW instead of NNE into the system.

Visible sat imagery this morning in my view does not show a closed surface circulation but its really tough to be sure with with convection covering up the lower clouds. Took a peak at AMSU and it only showed easterly winds.There wont be much of an impact on the islands which is whats important here. Very hostile environment just ahead.

I guess the idea is that the climate bill would charge every American one dollar a day and this would help cool the earth. Well being the kind of person I am, I will only charge you a dime. How about that! In fact, my introductory offer is this: Send me no money now If in the next 18 months the earth does not cool from where it is, then you can go with their plan and I will have no qualms about it. After all if their ideas are right, and co2 is on the increase, why should the temp not increase, yet alone as I say, decrease

And how about all those "green jobs" Has anyone taken a look at what is going on in Spain, where the government dumped all the money into Green Jobs. Go take a look at that miracle.

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

On second thought, save your dime.. you will need it with this crew of bait and switchers, because they will taking your money anyway, and in this case its for a sham and a scam.

Speaking of ...never mind, I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

Between Cap and Trade and things like this, you wonder

Hammering the NHC. The NHC is run by the Government. People have lost faith in the Government, including the NHC.

Sad, but true. Maybe Bastardi is right about it being a depression. I don't personally care if it is or isn't at this stage, but he could be right.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:Shear right now is bad and as Drakoen just pointed out the circulation has become visible and the thunderstorms are just being blown away. If it can keep a circulation once it gets into the Caribbean it just might develop, but I don't see any development in the next 48 hours.