Sunday, August 6, 2017

Fraternization of Ukrainian and Russian Troops Will Affect the Outcome of Russia’s Invasion But Not in the Ways Some Expect

Paul
Goble

Staunton, August 6 – In December
1914, as the first Christmas during World War I approached, German and British
troops in various sectors of the line between them agreed to “local armistices”
and even came together for soccer matches and religious services, an event that
was brilliantly portrayed in the 2005 film, “Joyeux Noel.”

Some saw this fraternization as the
basis for hope that the soldiers could come together and end the war either by
transforming the war between countries into a civil war, as Bolshevik leader
Vladimir Lenin hoped, or by forcing the governments to seek an armistice lest
their own troops refuse to fight.

But that is not how things worked
out. On the one hand, commanders on both sides suppressed information about
these cases of fraternization and severely punished those involved by breaking
up the units where such actions were most common.And on the other, the high commands promptly
stepped up propaganda portraying the other side in the most negative way.

One involuntarily recalls this
classic example of fraternization given a discussion of reported fraternization
between Ukrainian forces and pro-Moscow Russian forces in the Donbass that
appears on the Svobodnaya pressa
portal evaluating Ukrainian media reports about such contacts (http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/178421/).

The author, Dmitry Rodionov,
interviews three Russian observers of military developments. The first,
military correspondent Marina Kharkova says that such contacts have been taking
place since the conflict began and “this is not news for anyone.” But she
insists that these have no impact on the situation on the front as a whole.

At the same time, however, Kharkova
says that “local armistices of course influence the situation but in a minimal
way. These are not so much armistices as a war put on pause in a concrete place
and in a concrete interval of time.”They aren’t firm or long-lasting because neither side can fully trust
the other; but they keep occurring.

Igor Nemodruk, a fighter for the
pro-Moscow Luhansk Peoples Republic, even recalls the Christmas truce in World
War I, and observes that “then as now, people were tired of war, and standing
in place only
intensifies this weariness.” That is because those who remain in one section
for a long time naturally become curious about their opposite numbers.

He says that in his view, “such
contacts in the short term will have little impact on mutual understanding
between the sides.” Unfortunately, the war will be resolved by others far
removed from the battlefield.Those on
the line of fire will be the victims of their decisions.

And Aleksandr Dmitriyevsky a
journalist in Donets who edits the journal Novaya
Zemlya, argues that such contacts show there are people on both sides
interested in an end to the conflict.The pro-Russian side should take this into consideration.

The message of all three is that
reported fraternization won’t have any real impact on the conflict. But there
are at least three reasons to think that judgment is incorrect even if it is
true that such contacts will not bring an end to the conflict on their own:

·First,
commanders are going to be more concerned about such reports and to take more
steps to prevent fraternization. They may shift troops more often or intensify
supervision to prevent such moves.

·Second,
both the Ukrainian and the Russian side are likely to copy what the Germans and
British did in 1914, intensifying propaganda about the other to make it clear
that no agreement short of complete victory is acceptable, thus making the
conflict longer rather than shorter.

·And
third, given that reports about such things are themselves of great propaganda
value, each side is likely to read them as an effort by the other to weaken its
resolve – and even to try to spin reports about fraternization in its
favor.