September 28, 2016

No, I'm not there. I'd be interested in checking it out, but it's an hour away. Meade's skipping it too. To me, it's interesting that Trump is paying attention to Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight's intestine of the states...

... has Wisconsin 5 back in the line of states that Trump might try to reach to get to 270 electoral votes. That's after Michigan. It's interesting to be getting that kind of attention.

I'm hearing the former Senator Bob Kasten saying that there are 2,000 people who didn't make it into the room, so I'm sure if Meade and I had tooled down I-94 after my class ended, we'd only have made it into the overflow room, so I'm doing overflow back here at my remote outpost in Madison.

I have no clue how rally turnout translates into actual votes but these anecdotes about oversubscribed Trump events are very interesting. If you have decided to get out of your chair and go to some rally after a long day at work, in the cold and the rain, and wait in line, and pay money, and maybe not get in, that suggests a certain…commitment. Unless Trump truly disappoints those folks at the event, I'm guessing they are now bound to him. They may give him money but, perhaps more importantly, they will talk him up and get their friends and neighbors to think hard about him, and they will turn out on Election Day.

It is my perception that Trump is not trying to secure down ballot GOP races, so then I am wondering what is his thought process?

A) He is incompetent and selecting events in a state he is not likely to win.

B) Has internal polling showing him with a real chance at winning the state.

C) He is trying to keep hope alive in five-ish close states that he thinks could (with the right external factors) "flip" to him.

D) Anyone have any other ideas?

Because maybe Michael K has it right and there are always angry losers, maybe Trump just really motivates LOTS (still a minority) of angry losers.

If we look at where Hillary will be in the next several days:29 SEP - Iowa30 SEP - Florida30 SEP - Floridano more events until 05 OCT a Fundraiser.

If we look at where Trump will be in the next several days:28 SEP - Iowa28 SEP - Wisconsin29 SEP - New Hampshire30 SEP - Michigan01 OCT - Pennsylvania 03 OCT - Colorado04 OCT - Arizona

Are there any conclusions to draw from that? In eight days he will visit six blue-ish states in the middle of the intestines and one red-ish state (AZ). Hillary will visit eight days one blue-ish and one red-ish state and then a fundraiser in DC.

If this were a conventional campaign, I would speculate that Hillary does not think she has Florida in her column. And I would say that Trump is playing like he had Florida locked down and he is making his move for the states that will give him the win.

I think Hillary is playing by the conventional wisdom. Trump could not find conventional wisdom with both hands, not that he wants to.

Which assumes she possibly could work hard at campaigning. I wouldn't be surprised that she hit the ground running after the debate so that she could show to the press corps & the world "See, here I am -- out here campaigning after that awful debate. I'll still got the moxie!". And the impression would be made of the happy warrior, propagated by a compliant press.

But, examine the evidence a little more closely & you see a different story: she either is a lackluster campaigner by choice or she lacks the physical stamina to stay at it (a "fundraiser in DC" doesn't count as campaigning, what a crock!).

Trump, on the other hand, just seems to have some weird bionic power where he goes back to the hotel in the evening & plugs himself into the power grid, & recharges. Guys, he's seventy! That's pretty damn good for 70! Maybe having a younger chick around will do that for a guy. It would, in any case be an hypothesis I'd love to test.

One thing we have been sure of right from the beginning is that Trump will not go down without a fight. As "my Name" points out look at the man's schedule. Isn't that really "retail" politics; something so many say they want? Trump is going to play a 60 minute game. Can Clinton make it past the third quarter?

Why not campaign in WI. WI has elected Scott Walker 3 (?) times. Why wouldn't those same people elect a R for President. WI has been hammered by the loss of manufacturing jobs. Doesn't Trump appeal to some of those folks? Not every citizen of WI lives in Dane County or Milwaukee.

Trump is visiting blue states where Republicans rarely go because it isn't cost effective. But it occurs to me that just because a state isn't likely or even possibly going to go red doesn't mean there aren't any Republican voters there. Maybe he is getting a great turn out in blue states because someone from their party is actually taking the time to come see them and hasn't written them off.

We'll see if that translates into electoral college votes.

I'll say one thing for him, he's no slacker. I keep hearing about how he isn't trying to win but, if that were the case, wouldn't he just do TV interviews and skip the arduous travel schedule?

If this really is the state of this country's "intestines" then the race is now Trump's to lose -- I think Colorado is trending Trump.

Can someone explain to me why New Mexico is placed as far left as it is? I can find no polls taken there since mid-May, and Clinton's lead back then was +8. In past elections it's been a blue carbuncle surrounded by red states but I can't believe that Arizona and Texas have issues with the porous border but New Mexico does not.

When I game out the Electoral College map I give my beloved Virginia to Clinton (sob!) but I still get over 300 Electoral College votes for Trump because I give him New Jersey (in June it was Clinton +21, three weeks ago it was Clinton +4), Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, every state of the old South except Virginia (sob!), Indiana, Arkansas (they know the Clintons best!), Texas, Arizona, and one out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

I (as a WAer) have given twice, sorta. Once I gave a notable bit for the veteran thing when DJT skipped the primary debate. And, I recently forked over 30 bucks to the DJT website for an HRC in prisoner garb bobble head.

I'm like Meade in Madison. Rail against the libs at the same time you take advantage of all the stuff libs in power pay for. IIRC Meade once acknowledged this as a having your cake and eating it too situation.

Trump is transformational. When he meets a person they have a Eureka moment and realize Hillary and the media are full of crap about Trump. They knew that already but it didn't hit home until they heard him talk up close. Trump is valuing all of the country. Hillary is acting like Romney.

In fact I love my place in Seattle. If I could only be in one place it'd be there, even though I currently spend more time in other places. As insane as the lib gov is (e.g. I've received a warning for throwing out the wrong stuff in the (landfill destined) garbage, the dough growth just keeps going. That benefits me, and, as a bonus, it's cathartic to nag about their lunacy. I don't really know what goes on in the Bay Area, but it seems like another place where libs seem to rule at the same time economic measures sore. Strange.

Anywho, I'm hoping the libertarian Amazon-types will start having more influence over the Emerald City's gov. W/ (when construction is complete) ten million square feet of office space downtown, it's hard to imagine they won't be noticed by the polls. Time will tell.

Can someone explain to me why New Mexico is placed as far left as it is? I can find no polls taken there since mid-May, and Clinton's lead back then was +8. In past elections it's been a blue carbuncle surrounded by red states but I can't believe that Arizona and Texas have issues with the porous border but New Mexico does not.

They don't. There's very little civilization in southern New Mexico south of I-10 and most of the towns down that way are so small that border jumpers tend to stick out. Arizona has a problem because Nogales is right on the border and illegals can blend in with the local population to some extent. Same with El Paso, Texas.

In 2000 George W. was 4 votes ahead on election night. A union steward in Las Cruces thought that was too bad and went looking and "found" an envelope with 11 votes for Gore, so that Gore was 7 votes ahead. That wa still a bit close, so they "found" another envelope with 359 votes for Gore, so the official total came to Gore 366 votes ahead.Some Republicans around the state went, "Hey, wait a minute here!" but Mickey Barnett, the state chairman, said, "Forget it, it's over." And that was that.

In this election, I see the governors of Virginia and California have signed bills giving their ex-cons, and in California, even current prisoners voting rights.Sort of says something about what the current Democrat Party leadership thinks of its electorate, doesn't it?And, whatever the polls say, the pols must be panicking!

Also, because of dumb luck more than anything, I've been blessed to have four houses where I live. So, technically I'm not in my Seattle house too much. But, I'd be there full time if I could only choose one house.

Seattle is a mini-SF Bay Area, that collects the owners of the corporatist system. Since there is so much money following them around its good for their servants and courtiers. Personally, I have made a great career for myself in SF and benefited from the ridiculous real estate appreciation. But its the lucky result of living in the place that has sucked the life out of the rest of its region and beyond. Back in the day the SF Bay Area made things, and most important it innovated, this is where new tech was born. This is no longer really true.

Of all places in Wisconsin, why would Dumb Donald go to the one place in the state where he will win the greatest majority of votes? If he needs to change minds, he needs to get closer to the lake communities from Racine-Kenosha north to Milwaukee. I suppose he thinks it is all about the size of the crowd. Then if he is up to it, visits to Wausau, Green Bay and Appleton to rub shoulders with the union guys would be nice and if he reeeeealy feels his oats, an on campus at UW-Madison would be the cherry on top of the brandy manhattan.

"Personally, I have made a great career for myself in SF and benefited from the ridiculous real estate appreciation."

This is a symptom. And, a good one, from my POV.

The cause of the symptom is capitalism nirvana, imho. Success is invigorating, enthralling, addicting. Exhausting too. I love it. If it's not for you, what's stopping you from moving to Butte Montana (or the equivalent). If you don't like the hustle and bustle you can shift down several gears and drive a Razor down the main drag Harrison Ave.

Tommy Thompson called and told DJT it was time to return. It took Boss Tweed Obama and Ma Barker Clinton to corrupt what was once thought untouchable the F.B.I. Every American should be deeply troubled and saddened. An active arm of a political party. Watergate is a high school prank compared to this debacle.

Its not capitalism, anymore. This is becoming like an enormous version of the Versailles palace complex. And my personal problem is what gets us all, eventually, age. I've done my bit, I'mf winding down and slowly closing shop. This is a nice place and we can live here as long as we like, we are well off. But between one thing and another it is clear that this is a place that will be like us, old and living off rents (in the economic sense).

OTOH, if you lived in some backward wasteland part of the country, then your pessimism would be supported by a lot of economic lameness.

Not that there's anything wrong w/ the peeps in those places. After all what they lack in dough they make up for in clinging to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment. JK.

Anywho, Buwaya (and the like), I'm not sure that folks from these less affluent/successful parts of the States fully appreciate it when folks doing well in rich, booming areas bitch about their hardships.

Four years ago I let the news of excited large crowds at Romney rallies (I remember a great video of one at Red Rocks in Colorado) get my hopes up. Not going there again. Plus, four years ago I was actually affirmatively supporting Romney. The best I can do this year is be affirmatively supporting the defeat of the Lying Criminal.

PBJ_Ombuds: CDA is beautiful, as you probably already know. Sandpoint (an hour north of there) is even better. The weather will be mostly nice (if a little on the cool side at times) for another month here. In late October the north Idaho forests are graced by the golden tamarack pines mixed in with the firs and cedars. Definitely worth seeing if you've never been here at that time of year.

PBJ_Ombuds: CDA is 90 miles north of me, and I actually don't know it all that well -- not well enough to recommend restaurants. There are some nice easy trails around the lakeshore on Tubbs Hill -- if you're there on a sunny day, that's a great park to check out. Or, if you want a nice drive, just follow US95 north to Sandpoint. The first few miles are obnoxious (CDA's big box zone), but once you leave the populated areas it gets really pretty.

Chikelit said: "What are Sykes and Belling, the WI talk radio conservatives, saying? Are they still rabidly anti-Trump?"

Belling is supporting Trump as the Republican candidate. He constantly emphasizes that never trumping and not voting is a vote for Hillary is a vote for for destroying the Supreme Court. On the debate he said that Trump won Part 1 and Clinton won part 2. I don't know about Sykes.

The sheriff of Milwaukee County, Dave Clark, is at the Waukesha Trump rally. Trump is saying that his slogan is jobs, jobs, jobs. During the debate I was thinking that if Hillary got everything she wanted and it all worked then you have an electric grid powered by wind which could run factories and college graduates who could work in them (in managerial positions of course) BUT you wouldn't have the factories. She isn't working to get a factory for the power to run and the college graduates to work in.

Trump is saying that Tommy Thompson called him back to give speech because Wisconsin is in play.

"She isn't working to get a factory for the power to run and the college graduates to work in."

If only she was in favor of lowering the tax rates for the rich job creators, like DJT (who, in the only years he's disclosed, paid zero federal taxes), then we'd have a solid economic plan for factory construction.

Carry on.

P.S.

That Milwaukee sheriff job must involve a lot of time off, since the dude does so many TV and DJT appearances. Being a black cop who jabbers about anti-black-lives-mattering stuff seems to be in demand. You'd think there'd be more than one such dude to spread the wealth among.

Between one and three thousand in CB, Iowa. Very fired up. He needs to win blue collar voters in the Midwest. Do-able.

No real new ground but a tighter speech. And I remain sick over the death of Sarah Root in Omaha. Killed by a drunk illegal alien. Her mom was on stage. I am not an emotional guy but I get very upset over these cases as it could happen to anybody and these people shouldn't be here.

Sarah's mom, "Hillary called me a deplorable and she is no friend of women."

Report should be on Power Line in the AM. Secret Dylan references. Count'em!

Also, even if it's 3 grand, on the high side of the so-called "estimate." Wasn't FL like 15 grand plus 12 grand outside? Do they have a bunch more people killed by drunk illegals down there. Why were Iowa folks not into making America great again (like the FL-ers)? Does Iowa hate America and love drunk murderous illegals (when compared to FL)?

Watching Trump speaking in Waukesha I was contrasting the whole set-up - the flags, the signs, the cheering crowd, the music, the color - with the debate set-up. In the debate Trump, Hillary and the lackey were widely spaced apart and separated from the audience by an unusually wide distance. The platform was bare, the wall had writing on it in flat, boring colors and there seemed to be a sort of high darkness just above Trump, Hillary and the lackey. The audience could not be seen and was told not to speak or cheer. Then Hillary and the lackey worked together to sneer, disagreed and laugh at Trump. It was as if it had been designed to cut off all sensation except Nurse Ratched and the lackey who were telling Trump he was a racist, a sexist, a republican, a rich man, a liar, in his own reality, attacking his wife and father and so on. As if the whole was psychologically designed to make Trump, lacking any other input, blow up or quit. I think it took Trump by surprise but he fought right to the end in that he continued to make his points and he did not blow up. Next time the media arranges one of these Red guard, psychological isolation, sensory deprivation tests the Trump camp needs to think how to counter it. Hillary of course thrives smirking, sneering and shouting insults on an isolated stage far from reality or life.

Waitin' for DavidB's AM. Can't you hear that rooster crowin'? The streets in Loch Iowan were dead, brains were wired, clouds were weepin', and someone told a lie (or, more accurately, a bunch of lies.)

I have a friend who keeps sayin I'd enjoy shooting his AR-15. And I have another friend who built his own version of an AR-15 (apparently there's one part that is governed by law, and the rest of the parts can be ordered and added, something like that).

traditionalguy said...Pence is a hell of a speaker. He can teach The Donald a thing or two. Great pairing.

I've been thinking about the differences between Trump and Clinton regarding public speaking. The problem that some people have with Trump is that he doesn't sound like the smartest guy in the room when he speaks. Most career politicians have mastered the art of sounding knowledgeable and erudite. Trump sounds more like one of the guys in high school (or possibly even junior high) who spent his time cutting up in the back of the class and wasn't on the college track, anyway. The guy who was entertaining and a good guy, but not going to be a Rhodes scholar. Clinton, on the other hand, is that girl who would do anything to get ahead, no matter how sneaky or underhanded. And we know that, possibly barring the halls of Congress, she is the most dishonest person in any room that she enters. She's not a natural politician like her husband was, the kind of person who enjoys going out and gladhanding the crowd, but she's a more natural public speaker than Trump, if she speaks calmly. When she yells, however, she's a visceral turnoff for most men. She reminds them of their first ex-wife.

Looks like we live a bit closer to CDA (Coeur d'Alene) than Mark does, over in NW MT. Tend to fly in and out of Spokane more than Missoula (thanks to Southwest), and was through there this last weekend. One of the best places to eat, consistently over the decades, is at the CDA resort. Beverly's upstairs is supposed to be five star. I wouldn't know, but my partner, whose first husband was a formally trained executive chef, demanded it for her birthday this year (as she often does). On the main level is Dockside, that has a phenomenal Sunday brunch. Done it three times this year - May, July, and last weekend. If you go, esp. try the Huckleberry Mimosas and brown sugar bacon. (Huckleberries are a big thing in that part of the country - they also have them in a couple other dishes at the brunch, such as frapes). There is also another restaraunt at the east end of CDA that a friend was trying to hook up with us at this summer. We didn't make it, but my partner has been there in the past and likes it. Will work on the name. We get into a rut, with Beverly's and Dockside, so have great intentions, but in the end, tend to eat at those places, take food from them back to the room, and mostly skip eating the next day to recuperate.

Prices to stay in N ID are very high in July and August, but seem to be coming down a bit. When they are that obnoxious, we tend to stay closer to Spokane - there were times in August that the Davenport there was cheaper than 3 star hotels in CDA, Post Falls, Sandpoint, etc (just shop for deals - they seem esp. good on the weekends). Again, if you haven't stayed there (the Davenport), it is worth it, esp. the older hotel. We try to stay there at least once a year.

Geographically, we are closer to CDA, but it is a bit faster for us to Sandpoint. So, a week or so ago, I popped in there for the WalMart, Home Depot, and North 40 Outfitters (just west of Home Depot), as was back home by the time we were to walk in the afternoon. It is at the NW corner of (lake) Pend O'Rielle, which I think is more beautiful than lake CDA. It is right by a nice ski area (Sweitzer), which makes it a year round resort. The lake is much deeper (doesn't freeze), a bit bigger, and tends to be more sail than power, as contrasted to CDA. The lake also has a navy base (for sonar research). Was crew in a couple of sailboat races this last summer there. Also, very close to a wilderness area, so there is a lot of good hiking. Sandpoint area is booming right now, but doesn't yet seem to have the elegant top end like the CDA resort and the Davenport. Starting to get CDA expensive though.

@PB&J - I have greatly enjoyed the times that I have shot AR-15s, and one of them is high on my want list. Need a bear (hand) gun first (right now, I am thinking a 10 mm Glock 40). It is extremely easy to shoot an AR-15 fairly accurately, and it has extremely low recoil. Think almost .22LR level recoil. Almost unnoticeable compared to my 12 guage. And, you can put (and remove) almost any immaginable accessory on them.

The part that you are thinking about is the lower receiver. It is the part that has the serial number, unless you create one yourself (or, at least finish the last 20% of one), in which case, you don't need a serial number. Yet. Big thing right now is doing just that, through rapid prototyping, numerically controlled machining tools, etc. Everything else bolts onto that part. Same LR can be used for calibers (so far) ranging from .17 upto .50 BMP (though .223 is the most common) (so far). Everything is moduluar, which is part of why the gun is so popular. You can switch out everything except the LR fairly easily. A lot of people just build what they want from scratch, buying the parts over the Internet (you can't buy the LR across state lines, of course, except through an FFL).

I prefer nerd. Currently I'm getting ads for carbide inserts(you really don't want to know).Ferrari? I'll give you that one, but this is the internet where everyone is rich good looking and has ninja fighting skills. Except me. Brole. Again. Ugly as sin. And last night I was defeated by a bag of pork rinds.