Friday, February 04, 2011

The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Empire

So naturally that got me to thinking about the fall of Canada’s Political Empire, AKA the Liberal Party of Canada.

Like Rome, the Liberal Party once seemed invincible and all powerful, but again like Rome it had inherent hidden weaknesses that inevitably led to decline and fall.

So why is the Liberal Party in decline?

Well after exhaustive research that took about 25 seconds, I have come up with 10 reasons the Liberals are in trouble.

Here they are:

They Keep Picking Bad Leaders
Why do the Liberals keep picking stiffs? And I am talking about all the way back to John Turner. Remember him? Hard to imagine a leader more stiff and awkward than Turner. Even Jean Chretien – essentially just a small town politician --was no great shakes. Yes, I know he won three majorities in a row, but he benefited from the disastrous inability of the Opposition to mount any kind of effective challenge. Even then Chretien’s success resulted from basically winning every seat in Ontario. Outside Ontario the Liberals were weak and Chretien did nothing to improve that situation. Since Chretien, of course, things have only gotten progressively worse. Paul Martin, whom the media had acclaimed as Canada’s next Liberal Caesar, was a bust. Weak and inarticulate when speaking off the cuff, Martin seemingly had no other goal than simply being Prime Minister. After that, he had nothing. His successor, Stephan Dion was quite possibly the worst Liberal leader of all time. Enough said. And now there’s Michael Ignatieff, a charisma-free academic with all the political instincts of a seasick turtle. And the fact that the Liberals acclaimed Ingatieff as their leader speaks volumes.

Bad IssuesOne of my theories of politics is you shouldn’t talk too much about specific issues. As soon as a party takes a specific stand, it immediately drives away support. The Liberals don’t seem to get this. They keep coming up with some dopey idea guaranteed to hurt them in the polls. Remember the National Day Care Plan? Or worse, Dion’s infamous “Green Tax.” Sure these ideas sounded great when they bounced them off Liberal donors at the wine and cheese parties in Toronto, but in the real world they just fall flat.

Changes in QuebecOnce upon a time the Liberals won elections basically because they won a ton of seats in Quebec. That’s because for a long time the Liberals were really the only option. Tories were about as rare in Quebec as Hollywood celebrities at a Ricky Gervais fan club meeting. But after the Adscam scandal Conservatives started making inroads in Quebec. Even more damaging for the Liberals, however, was the emergence of the Bloc Quebecois. Suddenly the Liberals faced opponents on two-fronts and they have never been the same since

Changes in Quebec 2The problem the Liberals face in Quebec is not just tactical, it’s also ideological. Simply put, the old Liberal notion of centralizing power in Ottawa – popular in Ontario – just doesn’t sell anymore in Quebec. For Quebeckers the political rallying cry is now “Quebec first, Canada second.” The Tories with their “decentralizing bent” can co-exist with that mentality and the Bloc, of course, embodies it. For the Liberals, on the other hand it’s a dead end.

The City SyndromeThe Liberals are most comfortable in big urban areas – Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver. But take them out of that environment and they become more uncomfortable than Don Cherry at a poetry-reading seminar. They just can’t relate to rural Canadians, whom they equate with bible-thumping, gun-toting, redneck barbarians. The Liberal strategy, I guess, is to hope the CBC can bring some semblance of "civilization" to these hinterlands.

MoneyMoney is the lifeblood of politics, and the Liberals desperately need a transfusion. New political donation laws which limit what donors can contribute to political parties has severely crippled the Liberal ability to raise money. Before these limits were imposed the Liberal Party relied on donations from wealthy corporations, which gave the Liberals the ability to denounce wealthy corporations. Now they are forced to rely more on grassroots support. That's hardly a Liberal strength. If you ask a Liberal about the grassroots and he will probably refer you to his landscaper. Oh and when the public political subsidy is scrapped the Liberals might be raising money at garage sales. Anybody want to buy Pierre Trudeau’s panama hat?

Out of Power, Out of LuckThe Liberals were never big on ideology, unless you count grasping for power at all costs as an ideology. They did what it took to win power. If that meant channeling Hugo Chavez and socialism, that was fine. And it that meant running to the right of the Reform Party, well that was OK too. Whatever worked. The problem is that approach attracted “Power People”. These were people who would be loyal to the Liberals so long as their were perks to be awarded or advertising contracts to clutch. When the Liberals lost power, they lost a lot of their friends.

A new Sheriff in TownThe Romans faced off against Germanic Barbarians and Huns. The Liberals have a bigger problem. They must face Stephen Harper. In all their history, the Liberals have never had to face an opponent like Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He is intelligent, ruthless and calculating. And right now Harper is using all his power and all his skills to exploit to the fullest every Liberal weakness. He wants the Liberals to fall down and not get up.

The Future is DimOne characteristic of the Liberal dynasty in its heyday was its bench strength. You could always look at the Liberal party and identify three or four high caliber individuals who you could picture being Prime Minister. Not anymore. Who among the current batch of Liberals is Prime Minister material? Bob – “I nearly ruined Ontario’s economy” --Rae? Mark Holland, otherwise known as Mark Who? And, of course, there’s Justin Trudeau. Trudeau, of course, has the magic name. Too bad he can’t use that magic to make his kooky ideas disappear.

Disappearing Brand LoyaltyAt one time Liberal loyalists were born not made. If you were a Catholic you voted Liberal. If you were an immigrant or the child of immigrants you voted Liberal. If you were French-Canadian or Italian or Jewish you voted Liberal. But those days are changing. Voters are getting savvier, more sophisticated and choosier about their options. In other words, the Liberals now have to work for their votes. And for the Liberals that’s a new experience.

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So there you have my Edward Gibbon-style analysis of the Liberal downfall. Of course,unlike the Romans, the Liberals might turn things around. But let's face it, that doesn't seemly likely. More likely is that one day all that will be left of the once mighty Liberals are political ruins.

"The Romans faced off against Germanic Barbarians and Huns. The Liberals have a bigger problem. They must face Stephen Harper."

LOL loved that line - better get it trade marked. I'm very happy that Harper - the big meanie - is 'intelligent, ruthless and calculating..' I hope he's around for a long time. He's only around 50 - if he stays like this i hope he's around for another 15 years as PM.

A good post, but as one Liberal Party falls another rises under the leadership of Harper. The flaw in you article is the mischaracterization of Harper as some political genius. He has repeatedly demonstrated that he is not.

2) Hmm, what were the issues in the conservative election victory? GST cuts, child tax benefit of $100/month and whistleblower protection were all in the 2006 PC platform and two out of three were implemented. Were these not harped upon along with "accountability" during the entire election period?

3) The tories have been working hard lately to alienate Quebec voters but yes, you are correct on this point.

4) Hmm, social program spending (like child care) is popular in Quebec and with opt-out clauses for provinces that want to deliver the programs there's not much to object to. In fact, Harper's expansion of the federal government on prison building, rehabilitation-cutting (bye bye successful prison farm in Kingston that taught useful skills and fed inmates), and the military is quite unpopular in Quebec.

5) Aside from the swipe at the CBC (really, come on?) I'd have to agree that the Liberal party does much better in the big city and connects better with urban voters (not limited to the cities you mentioned) than to rural dwellers though not with the gun and bible prejudice (of course some Liberals think like this just as some conservatives hate gays and blacks - doesn't make it right or mainstream in either party).

6) The subsidy isn't going to be scrapped anytime soon but if it is it will be a good issue - Harper gets enough support from wealthy Canadians that he feels he can cut off other parties funding for political gain (which it will look like - and likely be - unless he gets a consensus). Liberal grassroots support is strong when there is a rallying cry - the Jean C-Paul M wars brought out droves of people (I remember party meetings where we barely used to get quarum overflowing with hundreds during the regrettable infighting in my party) - we just need a clear message.

7) Pot meet Kettle - How many Reform policies disappeared when in power? How many Senate appointments were made when the promise was to make none? Can you say there aren't power-hungry people in the Cons. ranks? Of course not. So what's your point?

8) Current generation? Some past PCs (John A McDonald comes to mind) were brilliant. Willing to go as far as Harper - nope - dislike Brian M as much as you want (or Lady Thatcher) but he (and she) respected constitutional conventions.

9) Just because Mark Holland isn't well known doesn't mean he's not strong. Who is to say some of the Liberals you mentioned won't come back in if there's another leadership race.

10) Liberals should have to work for their votes (as should members of all parties). I'd rather religious and racial group members voted as individuals rather than as blocks (which means all parties need to practice respect).

About Me

Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant and writer who has been called a “political warrior” a “brilliant strategist” and one of the “canniest political observers in Canada.”
He has worked as a consultant in both the United States and Canada and was formerly a senior officer in the National Citizens Coalition.
A regular columnist with the Ottawa Hill Times, his work has also appeared in the Globe and Mail, the National Post and in the Sun Media chain; and he has appeared on countless TV and radio public affairs programs. He is the author of the book, Loyal to the Core, Harper, Me and the NCC.

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