AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Up 3.73% This Week

September 13, 2019

Corn futures closed firm to 1 3/4 cents higher in most contracts, as Dec was up 3.73% on the week. The 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps for most of the contiguous US into the last half of September. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed money managers in corn futures and options increasing their net short position by 17,028 contracts to -136,399 contracts as of Tuesday. On Thursday, USDA added 85 mbu to the 18/19 ending stocks projection by cutting ethanol demand by 50 mbu and exports by 40 mbu. At 2.445 billion bushels, that is the largest since 1987/88 and the old Reserve days. We will get the final carryout number at the end of the month via the Quarterly Grain Stocks report. For new crop, they reduced projected ethanol demand by another 25 mbu.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.55 1/2, up 1 cent,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $3.81 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Hold Gains on Friday

September 13, 2019

Soybeans futures saw 1 to 3 1/4 cent gains on Friday, with Nov 4.78% higher this week. Soybean meal was $2.10/ton higher, with soy oil 8 points lower. USDA reported a private export sale of 204,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery. That was likely part of the 600,000 MT that was rumored on Thursday. Chinese officials stated that soybeans are on the list of US goods that are being exempt from additional tariffs. Analysts expect Monday’s NOPA report to show August crush of its members at 162.018 mbu, which would be nearly 2% larger than August 2018. On Thursday, USDA added back 20 mbu to the US crush projection for 2018/19, as well as adding another 45 mbu to the export number. WAOB also raised the cash average farm price by a dime to $8.50.

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.84 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.98 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.12 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.24, up 2 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal closed at $298.20, up $2.10,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.94, down $0.08

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Nicked by Friday Profit Taking

September 13, 2019

Wheat futures ended the Friday session with most KC and MPLS contracts steady to 4 cents lower and CBT slightly higher. Credit that to pre-weekend profit taking. On the week, Dec CBT wheat was up 4.26%, with KC 1.53% higher and MPLS up 2.12%. CFTC data showed specs in MPLS wheat futures and options adding 1,657 contracts to their record net short position to 22,805 contracts as of Tuesday. USDA made several changes to the production category of other main countries on Thursday. They cut Australia by 2 MMT to 19 MMT, with Ukraine and Russia both down 0.5 MMT to 28.7 MMT and 72.5 MMT respectively. SovEcon added 0.5 MMT to their Russian projection, now at 75.9 MMT. Paris Milling futures are at their highest point since mid-August.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.83 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.99 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.05 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Close Mixed, Show Record Fund Net Short Position

September 13, 2019

Live cattle futures settled the Friday session with most contracts 10 to 65 cents lower, as October was down 3.37% this week. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with nearby Sep down 35 cents and other front months steady to 12.5 cents higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 56 cents lower on September 12 at $136.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were firm to higher on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 91 cents at $220.88, with Select boxes unch @ $198.60. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 629,000 through Saturday. That is down 27,000 head from the same week a year ago. Cash trade was reported at $100 in the South and $100-101 in NE on Friday. Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options net short for the first time on record at -6,232 contracts. They also held a record net short position in feeder cattle futures and options at -7,214 contracts on September 10.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $98.075, down $0.650,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $104.375, down $0.575,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $111.100, down $0.100,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $136.500, down $0.350

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.575, up $0.075

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $134.025, up $0.125

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Post Another Round of Limit Gains as Trade Tensions Ease

September 13, 2019

Lean Hog futures posted sharp gains on Friday, with Dec and Feb up the expanded limit. October was up 4.69% on the week. We will see expanded limits again on Monday. A Chinese official indicated US pork made the list of US goods that are exempt from additional tariffs of 10% that went onto effect on 9/1. The tariff is still a stiff 62% for commercial buyers. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.16 at $60.69 on September 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down $2.26 on Friday afternoon at $68.21. All primal cuts were reported lower. The national average base hog value was 64 cents lower at $45.67. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 2.611 million head through Saturday, 288,000 head above the same week in 2018. Managed money was shown at net long 19,426 contracts on 9/10, down 8,707 contracts from the previous week.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $66.475, up $3.300,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $68.700, up $4.500

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $75.100, up $4.500

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Closes Mostly Higher

September 13, 2019

Cotton futures closed the day with 7 to 20 point gains in the front months, thinly traded Oct down 49 points. Dec gained 6.32% this week. China did give tariff exemptions from the second round of implementation to several US ag goods, though there was no word on if cotton made the list. CFTC data showed specs trimming their net short position to 34,564 contracts by trimming 4,717 contracts in the week ending 9/10. On Thursday, USDA raised estimated world carryout for 18/19 by 1.3 to 83.75 MMT. Chinese imports were reduced by 0.5 MMT to 10 MMT, as Australian production was down 0.5 MMT to 1.4 MMT. The Cotlook A Index was unch on September 12 at 70.90 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, up from 51.57 last week and effective through next Thursday.

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