I’m telling you right off the bat that I’m picking the OVER in this
match-up. And no, it’s not because I picked the UNDER in the other three games,
and the UNDER went 3-1 in the Wild Card round in 2006, 2008 and 2010. But I
will admit there’s a pleasant football betting symmetry there.

Captain OVER

I’m picking the OVER for Sunday’s Wild Card game (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
because it’s 5-1 in Seattle’s last six games and 4-2 in Washington’s last six.
Both teams ended up going UNDER in Week 17, but not by much, so I’m not too
worried. And the middling total of 46 doesn’t motivate me to change my mind.

The Seahawks season is easy to cut into two. The UNDER started the year
5-0 as Wilson got his feet wet and Seattle’s outstanding defense held firm.
Then Wilson caught fire as Seattle upset the New England Patriots 24-23 (OVER
42.5). That started an 8-3 run for the OVER; Wilson has 21 TD passes and just
four picks in those 11 games, plus another four rushing TDs and only five
fumbles.

Griffin had a strong game in his NFL debut and only threw three picks in
his first nine games combined, but it wasn’t until after the bye week that he
really found his groove, throwing four TD passes in consecutive games against
the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The Redskins haven’t lost since, SU
or ATS, and the OVER is 4-3 during this stretch despite having to play the
Eagles offense twice and the Cleveland Browns offense once.

You can also easily divide Seattle’s season along the standard home (7-1
ATS, OVER 4-4) and away (4-4 ATS, OVER 4-4) split because of that ridiculously
noisy crowd back at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks will have to play this one
at FedEx Field, where the temperatures are expected to remain above freezing
under partly cloudy skies – nothing anyone from Seattle hasn’t seen before.
Again, factoring in Wilson’s second-half surge, the OVER is 4-0 in Seattle’s
last four road games.