Whilst its only round 2, there are already seasons on the line. To assure yourself of a finals spot in August, you need to hunt for a final H&A record of 12-6.

2015 – 4th and 5th were both 11-7, separated only by percentage

2016 – 4th spot (Rines), finished the year 12-6

12-6 is the benchmark people, anything less and you’re relying on luck to get yourself into the August jamboree.

Whilst the losers of round 1 are no doubt licking their wounds, winning teams can hardly sit by and congratulate themselves. Each team is only a short skid of losses away from denting or ultimately blowing their finals chances.

8th to 1st in one season is an incredible call but the Gators look to have the cattle to do it. In the offseason they secured the services of Simpson and Ebert, got the biggest free hit since Montagna with Macrae going forward (kicked 1.2 for the H&A Season!) and were able to shore up their backline by swinging Mills into defence. After spending countless (actually 3 – Spencer, Campbell, Vardy) draft picks Gators were finally able to address the biggest issue dogging their list by securing a half decent ruck in Nankervis. The Gators run quite thin on forward and ruck depth but look for them to shuffle their rucks and maybe swing Gresham forward come the first mid-season draft.

Breakout Player – Toby Nankervis

Fun fact, Toby Nankervis averaged 228 DT points from two wins at the 2013 U18 National Championships and 105 points in three losses. He scored 209 against Queensland and 247 against Northern Territory. Huge! Toby the Nank-Engine looks to be of a similar mould to Stef Martin – less of a tap ruckman but mobile around the ground. If he can approach big Stef’s scoring the Gators are laughing.

Time to Slide – Brandon Ellis

Kade Simpson was going to get this but since he’s only a recent acquisition it didn’t seem fair. Many doubts surround Ellis’ role in the team with the mini midfield overhaul at Richmond. He loves his soft outside ball but his ball use is questionable. Ideally the addition of Prestia and Caddy means Ellis is able to receive more outside ball but who knows how long he can survive as a one dimensional player. (This was written before Thursday’s game)

Make or Break – Carlton

Gators have a heavy reliance on three Carlton players who’s roles are uncertain in a team going through a full rebuild – Simpson, Wright and Kerridge. Simpson could hang up the boots at any moment. There doesn’t look to be an abundance of fantasy points going at Carlton again this year and the way Wright and Kerridge finished the year was less than inspiring. Thankfully Kerridge and Wright are probably battling for the same positions.

Rucks are a repetitive theme but Gators will be scraping through the first 9 rounds with English on their bench. Any injury to Big Boy or Nank will likely spell a donut for the Gators.

That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton, Let’s See If It Pays Off For ‘Em…

Probably learning from the example set by the Vipers last year, the Gators have quickly shed young talent in order to grab players that will help them in the short term with Kade Simpson being the best example. Gators gave up Maynard and Stringer for Simpson and will expect at least a full years’ worth of service from him or the trade will be a bust.

Summary

Gators actually scored much better than their ladder finish indicated last year and were less than 500 points off the ladder leaders so the jump from 8th to 1st isn’t completely out of the blue. The Gator’s scoring will continue to come from their solid midfield and some absolute cream in the defence and forward line. A scary realisation is that the Gators haven’t sold the farm to get to this position. They hold a decent number of draft picks in future drafts and they core playing group is still very young.

Last year I predicted the Vipers would finish 5th but Jero decided to make moves this league hasn’t seen before and brought in a host of contributing players to get his team into finals and the second UKL premiership. The biggest move was the trade that saw Vipers move on Heeney, a traditionally untouchable player, in exchange for Nick Riewoldt and Birchall. Vipers also traded David Swallow who was out for the season in exchange for Broadbent and snapped up NDS in the draft. The Viper’s finals campaign mirrored that of the Bulldogs as they came from 4th to win three in a row to take it home. NDS retired in the off-season but everyone else remains and as a result the Viper’s premiership window remains wide open. The 2017 version of the Vipers might be even stronger as they’ve been able to swing Caddy forward and topped up their midfield with Kieren Jack and Sam Gibson. They can also elect to move Hartlett into their defence later in the season but for now he remains a midfielder.

Breakout Player – Curtley Hampton

A breakout year for Hampton would be a well-deserved reward for the Vipers who patiently held on to him for zero games played in 2016. Adelaide have a plethora of rebounding defenders and holes in their midfield which is great for Hampton. Even if Hampton “only” becomes a rebounding defender it seems to be a productive position within Adelaide with the likes of Laird, Brodie Smith and Seedsman all scoring well. If Laird pushes into the midfield that can only mean more ball for Hampton with his biggest risk coming in the form of other fringe players fighting for a similar spot. The timing could be especially handy now that Malceski has retired.

Time to Slide – Josh Caddy

I’m not buying into Caddy at Richmond. I recall Caddy having huge wraps on him as a junior ball magnet but he’s never really taken that next step to replicate it at AFL level. This may have been due to playing team roles at Gold Coast and Geelong but I can’t see that changing at Richmond. Caddy will swing between the midfield and forward line in 2017. Being forward eligible lowers the bar of expectation from a fantasy perspective but I’m predicting Caddy to drop almost 10 points from his average which will put him on the cusp of a starting forward.

Special mention: Nick Riewoldt – “Surely he can’t do it again, can he?” – coaches since 2013

Make or Break – Shane Mumford

When firing the Vipers have probably the best, and comfortably top 2, ruck divisions in the league with their Gawn/Mumford combo. Mumford played 21 home and away games in 2016 but looking back reveals that Mumford has never achieved that number of games in any previous season. Considering the way Mummy plays I was expecting a lot of the missed games to be a result of suspensions I can’t find a record of Mumford ever missing a game through suspension. The unfortunate reasons for games missed comes down to injuries with Mumford missing swaths of previous seasons and usually in the back end of the year. Vipers generally give up points to their opponents in their defence and midfield so if Mumford goes down it will mean the loss of their biggest point of difference.

That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton, Let’s See If It Pays Off For ‘Em…

The Vipers had a pretty safe and vanilla off-season. They covered fairly well for the loss of NDS and Malceski and could even afford to drop Walker and Bird with Caddy swinging forward and drafting Hrovat. They didn’t enter the preseason draft until pick 20 and have already traded away their 2018PSR1. The shifting of draft picks in order to bring in established players makes sense as long as their team is in premiership contention. Selling off early picks means that they’ll need to really capitalise on any sliding players at future drafts to make sure the next generation of Vipers are ready to step up when the older players fall away.

Summary

The Vipers will be expecting to make finals this year and anything less should be considered a bust. Their 6th ranked midfield isn’t as bad as it looks. Most teams except the Badgers and Barbarians are within 30 points of each other. None of their players look like they are about to seriously drop away and they have pockets of improvement possible from Thurlow, KK, Fiorini, Hrovat, McLean and Keays. A premiership team doesn’t need an overhaul and Vipers have really only filled the holes where they need to. Should they get an unfortunate run of injuries then they may wish they still had a few more assets to trade with but you often can’t have your cake and eat it too. Vipers showed the league last year that it pays to pull the trigger especially when your rivals are unwilling to.

Injuries and suspensions were the Jackal’s worst enemies in 2016. Bennell, Hurley and Ryder missed the entire season. Shiels, Sidebottom and McVeigh also suffered untimely injuries that curtailed the beginning of the Jackal’s season. Similarly, a few Jackals again begin 2017 under injury clouds including repeat offenders Bennell, Scott Selwood, Wells, McVeigh and Hurley. Like the Ducks the Jackals also didn’t feature in an offseason trade and they continued to target young players in the draft. A sneaky late season pick-up of Bob Murphy could pay dividends this year.

Breakout Player – Darcy Parish

I’m hesitant to nominate second year players for breakouts but, like Oliver, I think Parish will buck the trend. Parish was dropped in the deep end in 2016 and survived which will only make him a better player. His preseason has been solid and the return of a few more senior players to dish the ball out and teach him the craft has me backing him for a big year. Another player the Badgers unashamedly threw out offers for but couldn’t get a deal over the line.

Special mention: Petracca

Time to Slide – Jarrad McVeigh

The obvious choice. Not only will McVeigh again miss the start of the year through injury but the Swans have a lot of players pushing to fill his role in the team. Lloyd, Mills and Jones are all capable of swinging between the Swan’s defence and midfield. Swans actually boast one of the youngest lists in the competition and have a reputation for developing players from within so expect McVeigh to step back further throughout the year.

Make or Break – Harley Bennell

The ongoing Bennell saga has been shrouded in rumours of drug use. He’s currently still listed as a 5-7 week “calf” injury. As previously mentioned there are some juggernaut forward lines in the league and the Jackals need Bennell back and firing especially if Wells, Ryder and Robinson miss chunks of the season. Bennell was a high selection at the initial draft that has not paid dividends but there’s still time to turn it around.

That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton, Let’s See If It Pays Off For ‘Em…

For a team with their premiership window open the Jackals didn’t make a single move in the off-season to improve their odds and probably even went backwards. They had the opportunity to take both Roughy, Watson or Tuohy but instead selected Ainswerth, Jayden Hunt, Preuss, Bonner and Weller. Ainswerth at pick 6 seemed especially early. I don’t expect any of those players to contribute in a meaningful way to the Jackal’s season. They delisted established players Griffen, Menzel, Bugg and Bagueley to do so. The window isn’t shutting as quickly for the Jackals as other teams but if they narrowly miss out then they might regret this draft.

Summary

The Jackals can claim the strongest midfield in the league thanks to Dangerfield, Sloan, Sidebottom, Scully and Cotchin. Jackals don’t really have an outstanding weakness which is the sign of a team ready for a premiership. Injuries and a shaky ruck bench may cause them issues through the year but there isn’t much they can do about the first and they can always swing Ryder from their forward line back to their ruck division if they need. If competition is as tight as predicted in the top half of the ladder then the Jackals might need to change tact and bring in some more experienced players.

I’m surprised to see the Ducks this low but the only thing separating 2 – 5th is captain choice really. The Ducks must have migrated this summer as they were non-participants in the trade period and took just the two picks to the main draft. The Ducks have the luxury of Oliver, Brad Crouch and Hill on the bench of their midfield making it possibly the deepest in the league. Somehow their forward line, boasting Hunter, Dahlhaus, Crisp and Wingard is considered below average in the league.

Breakout Player – Clayton Oliver

The Badgers will make no secret that they tried many times to get Oliver on the trade table with the Ducks but their management was stoic that Oliver was off limits. For good reason too. Oliver is composed and clean by hand in traffic and gets first hands to the ball much like fellow Duck – Cripps. Oliver’s time on ground in 2016 was very restricted and he should improve if only from a higher fitness base and more time. That won’t be his only scope for improvement though as another year in the system should see Oliver get even better.

Time to Slide – Heath Shaw

Heath Shaw is overdue to do something silly. He’s somehow built up a reliable reputation but this is all part of Shaw’s plan to burn all his owners one last time. It’s a Shaw thing. The only surprise is whether he’ll do it via roller-coaster scoring, untimely injuries or suspension.

Make or Break – Jack Crisp

The midfield composition at Collingwood is far from settled. There seem to be a dozen players that can rotate through the guts – Adams, Sidebottom, de Goey, Smith, Greenwood, Aish, Varcoe, Wells, Phillips etc. Treloar is the only player that plays full time in the midfield and even Pendlebury has spent time on half back. 2017 could be a sink or swim year for Crisp. He finds the ball but disposal can be poor and if he can’t improve in that area then other players will be preferred over Crisp. The Ducks can’t afford Crisp to fall down the pecking order at Collingwood.

Special mention: Wingard – more midfield time or just hot air?

That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton, Let’s See If It Pays Off For ‘Em…

I thought the Ducks would have been fully erect when they saw Boyd still sitting there at pick 8 but to my surprise they opted for a Salem as a defender. Their theory was that an available ruck at their next pick at 28 would be much less of a downgrade than whatever defender would be available at 28. However, I think rucks need to be viewed as less of a gradient and more night and day – they either play or they don’t and that’s most important. The gamble could pay off if Naismith and Jordan Roughead can cover the season between them but both could miss games which would be sorely felt by the Ducks as they aim to win their first final.

Summary

The Ducks scoring comes for a fairly even spread of players in each position. They sit 4th for rucks but this is an incredibly tenuous ranking based on at least Naismith or Roughead always providing reasonable service. I thought they could have been more aggressive in the off season to try and address some of their deficiencies especially considering the depth of their midfield – Oliver might spend the entire year on the bench even if he does push his average towards 90. Instead the Ducks held onto their ducklings and will back improvement from within their team to win their first final even and hopefully snag a premiership.

The Titans no longer boast one of the strongest forward lines in the league and within the space of a year seem to have become one of the worst. The Titans made the wrong call on which of Swan or Roughead to keep and as a result neither are Titans now while Montagna has been swung into defence. Only Zorko, Westhoff and Breust remain from this time last year. The Titans took 4 forwards in the most recent draft and drafted young. Their haul of Tom Phillips, Ed Langdon, Venables and Daniel Robinson in their forward line to go along with Berry and Perryman indicate the Titans are planning for their long term future however their first pick was Watson. Further confusing things are the Titans decision to bring in Leuey and LeCras while trading away Jack. Like Wolverines I’m not quite sure if the Titans are rebuilding or hoping for another crack this year. Phillips (fwd) at pick 29 was one of the steals of the draft in my opinion – he averaged 120 across 12 games in the TAC and 106 in the VFL last year.

Breakout Player – Trent Dumont

Dumont has been starved of opportunities at North Melbourne while the team believed their premiership window to be open. The capitulation of North was always coming though and after round 16 he finally got a solid run of senior games. Dumont has been consistently performing at VFL level for the past three years with averages of 107, 114 and 103. He’s translated this form into the JLT series and scored at a respectable 1.06 ppm. Dumont looks best placed to benefit from the departure of Harvey, NDS and Wells and should see plenty of time in the guts at North. He’s been in the system for a few years so I expect Dumont’s output to build through the year rather than drop away as he adjusts to AFL level.

Time to Slide – Bernie Vince

Vince earned defender status this year but it might be one year too late. Melbourne have a host of players fighting for spots in the midfield and Vince’s role within the team is unclear. His spot in the best 22 isn’t in doubt and he’ll still be handy as a fantasy defender but I expect Vince to shave at least 10 points off his 2016 average.

Make or Break – Gary Ablett

I hate seeing good players cut short by injury and it must be even more frustrating for the Titans to have received very limited output from their first pick in the initial draft. Ablett is 32 now but is good enough that he could play on for several more years and even re-earn his forward status. He’s also copped enough recent injuries that one more lengthy stint on the sidelines might be enough for him to hang up the boots. Ablett looked great in the JLT series and the Titans will need Gary Ablett back to his best if they want to contend. If the opposite happens and Ablett retires then he’ll be a tough loss to cover.

That’s a Bold Strategy Cotton, Let’s See If It Pays Off For ‘Em…

Titans haven’t taken too many risks lately but the selection of Daniel Venables over Oliver Florent seems an odd one. Florent has featured in the JLT series and looks set for a round one debut while Venables hasn’t been sighted. Florent averaged 90 across 11 games in the TAC while Venables averaged 72 across 3. The Titans have never had the benefit of high draft picks yet they still have a good record of unearthing late draft gems. Venables is touted as a raw athletic talent but I can’t see any other reason to ignore Florent. Unfortunately this looks like one they might regret.

Special mention: They might miss Jack if they make it into the finals especially if they run up against the Vipers.

Summary

Titans will remain competitive in 2017 with a fairly even spread across their defence, midfield and ruck division. Their forward line will hemorrhage points to opposition teams. The Titans might realize a bit of bonus output from Goldy with the third man up rule and there is scope for improvement from Fantasia, Blakely, Phillips and Cox during the season. They will need improvement from all these players and some serious injury luck across their mids and forwards to keep up with the pack leaders.