Valencia v Arsenal. Media predicts Arsenal will play with only 10 men.

By Bulldog Drummond

The question is simple: do the recent reversals and upsets in the league make the players more determined in the Europa semi-final, or do those reversals leave them worried about making a mistake, tentative for fear of being the one to let in a goal?

We know the season is gone and we’ll end up outside what used to be the “not a trophy” positions but are now the “promised land” positions that we can’t reach. Results have been disappointing – except for the win over Valencia.

But what of Valencia?

April saw them beat Real Madrid, and then lose to Rayo Vallecano. They beat Levante and Real Betis, but lost to Atletico Madrid. Then they lost at home to Eibar – but recovered to beat Huesca away 2-6.

Which leaves the league table looking perhaps like this… and I say perhaps because I have copied it from the usually reliable BBC website, but as you can see Sevilla are placed sixth although they have a better goal difference than Valencia. Maybe you can tell me why.

Pos

Team

P

W

D

L

F

A

GD

Pts

1

Barcelona

36

25

8

3

86

34

52

83

2

Altetico Madrid

36

22

8

6

52

26

26

74

3

Real Madrid

36

21

5

10

62

41

21

68

4

Getafe

36

15

13

8

46

31

15

58

5

Valencia

36

13

16

7

46

34

12

55

6

Sevilla

36

16

7

13

59

46

13

55

7

Atletic Bilbao

36

12

14

10

38

42

-4

50

With two games to go is is just possible for the seventh placed Atletic Bilbao to get into the top six and so claim a European place but it would mean one of Valencia and Sevilla losing both games while Bilbao won both, and with a movement of 16 goals. So Valencia might lost 0-4 twice and Bilbao win 4-0 twice; that would do it.

I doubt anyone is really thinking about that, so Valencia are, like Arsenal, secure in the Europa next season and the issue on their minds is simply that of beating Arsenal 2-0, to make it 3-3, and give them entry to the Europa League cup final on goal difference across the two games.

3-1 would make it 4-4 overall of course, and that would lead to extra time and if not settled then, penalties. 4-2 to them, and any higher scoring game separated by two goals, would give the match overall to Arsenal on away goals. Which means Arsenal need a tight defence.

If we look at the run through March and April we see that Arsenal did indeed have the tightest of defences:

Date

Game

Res

Score

Competition

0 Mar 2019

Arsenal v Manchester United

W

2-0

Premier League

14 Mar 2019

Arsenal v Rennes

W

3-0

Europa League

01 Apr 2019

Arsenal v Newcastle United

W

2-0

Premier League

07 Apr 2019

Everton v Arsenal

L

1-0

Premier League

11 Apr 2019

Arsenal v Napoli

W

2-0

Europa League

15 Apr 2019

Watford v Arsenal

W

0-1

Premier League

18 Apr 2019

Napoli v Arsenal

W

0-1

Europa League

Seven matches with just one goal against us. One could argue that the teams we were playing were not that good, but one goal conceded in seven still suggests a good defence.

Now we are told that Arsenal is hopeless because everyone can see the defence is useless.

21 Apr 2019

Arsenal v Crystal Palace

L

2-3

Premier League

24 Apr 2019

Wolverhampton W v Arsenal

L

3-1

Premier League

28 Apr 2019

Leicester City v Arsenal

L

3-0

Premier League

02 May 2019

Arsenal v Valencia

W

3-1

Europa League

05 May 2019

Arsenal v Brighton and Hove

D

1-1

Premier League

Five games and 11 against us. Of course runs like this can change and change again but for now that is the run we are stuck in.

We know that Eddie, Koscielny, Willock, and Mkhitaryan are within the squad that has travelled – it reads

20 comments to Valencia v Arsenal. Media predicts Arsenal will play with only 10 men.

It’s simple. La Liga has much better tie-breaker than Premier League – head-to-head is prefered to an overall goal-difference. Valencia drew with Sevilla 1-1 at home but won 1-0 at Sanchez Pizjuan so in case that both teams end the league with the same number of points, Valencia will finish above Sevilla.

If we had the same tie-breaker in Premier League, we wouldn’t need an eight-goal swing in the last game to pip Spuds for Top 4 – simple 1-0 v Burnley for us and 1-0 for Everton at Spurs would have sealed us 4th place.

Also, it should be said that Valencia have a better H2H with 4th-placed Getafe as well. So, if Valencia pick three points more than Getafe in the remaining two games, Valencia will finish above Getafe.

They also have a cup final against Barcelona to play so our old mate Francis Coquelin has returned just in time.

If I have a player that I fear the most from their team, it’s Kevin Gameiro. He is an experienced forward who will test our defence again. Koscielny/Sokratis/Mustafi will have to remain focused for at least 95 minutes of the game.

Their European results at home this season:

v Juventus 0-2
v Young Boys 3-1
v Man United 2-1 (Man United had already qualified before the game so it didn’t matter to them)

v Celtic 1-0
v Krasnodar 2-1
v Villarreal 2-0

They have won five in a row at home. Only once they have beaten their opponents with a result they need tonight (Villarreal) though, one of remaining four results would give them extra-time and with three they would get knocked out. It’s funny they have lost just one game – against ten men Juventus as Ronaldo got sent off at 0-0 in 25th minute. Miralem Pjanić scored two penalties to seal big victory for Juventus.

They were close to go out to Krasnodar – the Russian side had a 1-0 lead in the second leg thanks to a late goal but Goncalo Guedes, a dangerous winger, scored an equalizer deep into injury time to get Valencia through.

In my book, we should do what we did to Napoli – attack from the start because, as we have seen in previous European nights this season, there is no point in sitting on your first leg advantage. Lacazette and Auba should avoid doing their favourite let’s-miss-as-many-sitters-as-we-can routine and score from the first chance that opens up. Valencia have an away goal and, unlike Tiny Tottes that have progressed three times this season thanks to that rule, we have been usually on the wrong side of that rule in the past, including our CL QF against Valencia in 2000-01.

Usual media nonsense that is always anti Arsenal. I am sure I read somewhere that they expect an Arsenal player to be sent off.May be they believed that so much they gave us 10 players at the start. Even that mini twerp expects us to be knocked out. He still has nightmares about Viera, Adams and Dixon bearing down on him like moveable trees, during his Liverpool days.

Yep! Personally worried about Kevin Gameiro, myself. He is such a nippy player with an eye for goal. Also, aggressive and strong on the ball. Hopefully, we try to attack them too, so as to show our own potential to be a threat, going forward. It’s going to be nervy for both sides and extra-nervy for us seeing as Spurs got to a European CL final.