“He is good at communicating his ideas,” said Shanahan. “I believe we have people in our organization who have maybe been afraid of certain words and certain information. Once you speak with Kyle, he makes it much more logical and easy to apply.

“There are people even in our own organization he is going to have a positive influence on.”

View 6 photos

zoom

Randy Risling
/ Toronto Star
Order this photo

The Leafs have hired Kyle Dubas, 28, as assistant GM. He's pictured in the Leafs dressing room at the Air Canada Centre.

Dubas brings his affinity for analytics — along with history as a rink rat, a proven ability to scout and manage (the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds) and a solid knowledge of the NHL’s salary cap from his past work as an agent — to the stodgy franchise.

Yes, the conversations that have been going on in the blogosphere — where shots, shot attempts, blocked shots, shooting percentages and save percentage are measured and analyzed under headings like Corsi, Fenwick and PDO — have bubbled up into the front office of the Maple Leafs, a team that can use any edge it can get.

Gone are former assistants Claude Loiselle and Dave Poulin — another front-office hiring is not out of the question — and in is Dubas, who brought analytics to the Soo Greyhounds when he was named GM there at 25 in 2011.

Dubas hopes the conversation he’ll have with Carlyle will go a lot like the one he had with Sheldon Keefe when he hired Keefe to become head coach of the Greyhounds.

“The first day we met, he didn’t have any idea of anything I was talking about,” said Dubas. “Then, the first week, he met with me and the guy who tracks the data and began to build an interest and see the synergy that was there between the theory and what the numbers were saying and the value of altering our strategy a little bit.

“It takes time. It’s slow and you have to present ideas. They may be rejected, they may be accepted, or it may be somewhere in between.”

In a phone interview, Keefe said he’ll continue with Dubas’s stats-based approach in Sault Ste. Marie. He added he has ultimately taken comfort in having numbers at the ready, helping him identify strong players and putting in a system to influence the numbers positively, giving the ’Hounds a better chance at success.

“Through those numbers and the data that was provided, it gave me more answers. As a coach, it’s invaluable when you’re working in short timelines when you’re working towards the next game,” said Keefe. “It’s about relationships between players, and who plays well with whom.

“Some of these things, you have a sense of what’s happening. Sometimes the numbers can point you in another direction. Sometimes they can reveal something you can’t see or you don’t see.

“You don’t always do what the numbers say, but what it does all the time is generate discussion and debate among staff members that lead to solutions. And that’s where I found the true value in it.”

Last season, the numbers said only bad things about the Maple Leafs, even as the wins piled up through the first 60 or so games. The numbers said the Leafs were outshot too often, they didn’t possess the puck enough, and they relied on absurdly high save percentage and shooting percentage.

When the Leafs collapsed, the analytics crowd tweeted: Told you so.

Shanahan wouldn’t talk about coaching strategy for 2014-15, but it’s clear the Leafs are going to try to shed their run-and-gun image and try to become more of a puck-possession team.

“There are a number of teams that play different styles but they all get called the same thing,” said Dubas. “The L.A. Kings are a great possession team, but they don’t play the same style as the Chicago Blackhawks, who are also a great possession team.

“Just because this team (the Leafs) didn’t play that way, it doesn’t mean it won’t or it can’t or it’s not in its future.”

Leafs GM Dave Nonis did not attend Tuesday’s press conference introducing Dubas. But the two talked at length before the hiring, Dubas said. While Nonis is among those who have resisted the use of deeper stats, Dubas said there was a tremendous amount of common ground.

Dubas believes the NHL’s current stats are not anywhere close to as advanced as baseball’s, where WAR — Wins Above Replacement — has emerged as a go-to stat in the past 15 years.

“He’s got a great understanding of analytics, but he’s married that to the complexities and instincts you have to have when you’re putting a product on the ice,” said Shanahan.

Dubas says he’s a risk-taker, hiring Keefe at a time when few would take a chance on the former NHLer with a troubled past due to his links with controversial agent David Frost.

“People perceive hiring Sheldon as a risk, but it ended up being the best decision that was ever made there,” said Dubas. “People try to cast Sheldon in terms of what he was a teenager. To see the maturation of him and how hungry he was to prove people wrong and pursue knowledge, and to incorporate that into his coaching, was one of the greatest experiences I’ve had in working with somebody.”

More on thestar.com

We value respectful and thoughtful discussion. Readers are encouraged to flag comments that fail to meet the standards outlined in our
Community Code of Conduct.
For further information, including our legal guidelines, please see our full website
Terms and Conditions.