5 states that matter the most to Modi

5 states that matter the most to Modi

Electoral results in five crucial 'swing states' are likely to determine the cliffhanger of the 2014 polls, in which there has been intense public debate on whether or not the Bharatiya Janata Party's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, will achieve his party's 'Mission 272' and if the United Progressive Alliance will be sidelined.

These five states, which account for 249 of the country's 543 seats, have traditionally seen regional parties ruling the roost.

But this time, BJP is keen to make a decisive mark, either on its own or with help from allies.

Uttar Pradesh

With 80 seats, Uttar Pradesh plays a decisive role in government formation at the Centre.

According to all exit polls, BJP is likely to make massive gains in the state, riding mainly on the 'Narendra Modi wave'. The party is projected to bag more than 40 seats, compared with only 10 seats in 2009.

While the Nielsen-ABP survey has given BJP 46 seats, CSDS-CNNIBN pegs it between 45 and 53. The Times Now-Org survey predicts a massive surge to 52 seats, while CVoter sees BJP getting 54 in the state.

If these numbers indeed turn out to be true, the gambit BJP played here by making some major changes would have worked. The changes include moving veteran Murli Manohar Joshi from varanasi to make way for Modi and making party president Rajnath Singh contest from Lucknow.

The party had pumped in all its might here by bringing in Modi's close aide Amit Shah as incharge for the state.

For the Congress, which had performed very well in 2009, bagging 21 seats, the projections are disappointing - less than 10 seats according to the exit polls.

For Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress party the exit polls predict a combined 13 to 14 seats.

This could mark, with 10 seats, the comeback of RJD, which had been written off after Prasad's conviction in the fodder scam last year.

If there's one unanimous view among all polls, it is that JD(U) will be wiped out in Bihar in these Lok Sabha polls, bagging only two to five seats -- a complete decimation from its exalted tally of 20 last time.

While Kumar could make a comeback in the assembly polls next year, Prasad would continue to matter at the Centre, though he cannot contest polls himself for 10 years.

Andhra Pradesh

Though Andhra Pradesh is voting as a unit in 2014, it is essentially the bifurcated states of Seemandhra and Telangana that are in the fray.

In the Seemandhra region, Congress held 21 of the 25 seats in 2009.

This time, it is left with just nine. Most polls have predicted a washout for the Congress here, with zero to three seats.

Several of the Congress MPs and ministers have quit and the fight here is between Y S Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress and BJP's alliance with Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party. Reddy's YSR Congress might make an impressive impact, with all exit polls giving it more than 11 seats (Nielsen-ABP as many as 18).

The TDP, which had won four seats here last time, could bag nine to 15 seats, helping NDA in its overall tally.

In the Telangana region, the new state, there are 17 Lok Sabha seats. In 2009, the Congress held 12 of these seats, TDP two, TRS two and Owaisi's AIMIM one.

Congress is banking on taking credit for the new state here, but exit polls have given it between five and eight seats.

The TRS, which didn't ink a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, perhaps to ensure it got credit for to the new state, seems to make gained. The exit polls give TRS eight to 12 seats. The party and its chief K Chandrasekhar Rao are clearly on top in the new state.