March 10: Free Dubai Super Saturday Picks

by Angus McNae, Racing UK

March 9, 2018

Super Saturday effectively mirrors World Cup Night without the additional and considerable international challenge. It is in effect a test for locally trained horses, a test that asks whether they can run fast enough to be competitive or even win on World Cup night and this year there are plenty of live World Cup night contenders to consider on a fiercely competitive card. Analysis of the card is skewed by the presence of horses trained by Salem Bin Ghadayer. He has had a tremendous World Cup Carnival with five winners but now a doping violation weighs heavily over him. He is allowed to have runners as this breach is the subject of an appeal but what are we to make of those runners? This is tricky for any analyst, particularly as he seems to have a few good chances on the card. From my point of view I believe it best to take their form at face value and leave the implications of the recent doping violation to the Emirates Racing Authority.

With two winners last week we are now up to 17 at the World Cup Carnival. Here are four more selections for you.

Race 1 (7:00AM ET) - Al Bastakiya Stakes - #10 Masar (IRE) (3/2)

This horse is a class act in this field. Admittedly his classy form comes on turf but the dam’s side of his pedigree - she won the UAE Derby on dirt - gives plenty of encouragement. His Solario win at Sandown and his Jean Luc Lagardere and Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf form mark him out as being very useful and if he handles the dirt he will win. He holds an entry in the UAE Derby.

Race 2 (7:35AM ET) - Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) - #8 Yalta (IRE) (4/1)

When this horse bolted up over six furlongs on dirt last time I stated that he was the best domestic sprinter we have seen so far in Dubai. Now he has a chance to cement that impression. He has blinding pace, ran a big time figure last time and even from stall eight should be able to bag the favoured inside rail. The only pace pressure he may get early in the race is from Jordan Sport, but he is a turf horse and this will be a different scenario. Two of his main rivals, Ravens Corner and My Catch, are drawn in the widest stalls which hinders their chances. Yalta can take advantage and go gate to wire.

Race 5 (9:20AM ET) - Jebel Hatta (G1) - #10 Benbatl (GB) (3/2)

This is the classiest horse we have seen so far at the Carnival. He has not yet run a big time figure but is surely capable of one. He is thriving in Dubai, having won the Singspiel Stakes and the Al Rashidiya and can now win the Jebel Hatta on his way to the Dubai Turf. He fired a remarkable sectional split for the last two furlongs of the Al Rashidiya, marking him out as a genuine Group One horse and he can prove it here.

Thunder Snow is not a natural on dirt but he is a class act and his win in round 2 of the Maktoum Challenge is better than it looks on paper. He traveled wide that day and gave away plenty of ground and as I always say ground loss is a much ignored but vital factor when it comes to race analysis. He ground out a win there and in a field that is no stronger and over further he can book his place in the Dubai World Cup.

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2.7.2018

Benbatl was the star on show last week at Meydan. In a slowly run race where he had to race most inefficiently (111.23 per cent) he fired off a sensational final 200 metres in 21.79sec. He is, for sure, a Group one horse, now fulfilling all the potential he showed when posting a big time figure when winning the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last year. The Jebel Hatta and Dubai Turf are on his agenda. He was a winning selection here last week and that makes it eight winners for me since the Dubai World Cup Carnival started. On another stellar card here are four more selections.
Race 2 (10:05AM ET) - #4 Montsarrat (15/1)
Montsarrat was an impressive wide margin winner here on the dirt two starts ago. He made all and routed his rivals by more than 10 lengths. Next time up he was surprisingly switched to the turf, where he shaped well despite being given a far too aggressive ride by Mickael Barzalona. In effect he rode a dirt race on the turf; kicking clear but paying for his exertions. He is better than the bare result there and now returned to dirt - and able to attack from stall 1 - he can regain the winning thread.
Race 4 (11:15AM ET) - #1 Hit the Bid (GB) (2/1)
Hit The Bid gave the very fast Ertijaal a fright on the first week of the Carnival. He pressed the winner throughout and only gave way late on. He was in receipt of weight but that was still a big performance and, having been given time to get over that effort, he can win this race with authority. This contest lacks much strength in depth and the speed figures this horse has posted makes him a standout. He should be backed with confidence.
Race 5 (11:50AM ET) - #8 Thunder Snow (IRE) (2/1)
Thunder Snow won the UAE Derby in 2017 and had a decent campaign in top class company on the turf in Europe over the summer. He is being aimed at the Dubai World Cup and made a respectable start to this year’s UAE campaign when second to Heavy Metal here in round one of the Maktoum Challenge. His jockey, Christophe Soumillon, looked after him that day and he shaped really well. Thunder Snow should relish the step up in distance and he can turn the tables on Heavy Metal, who is a doubtful stayer at this trip.
Race 6 (12:25PM ET) - #16 Zaman (6/5)
I respect the chance of Tangled here, who switches from dirt to turf, but Zaman is the one for me given his classy European turf form. He was an excellent fourth to Gustav Klimt in the Superlative at Newmarket and chased home an on song Expert Eye at Goodwood. That level of form translates well to this Meydan Classic Trial and he hails from the in-form Charlie Appleby yard. Stall 11 is not at all ideal but this horse has plenty of ability and William Buick may well be able to slot in and get a decent trip in a very winnable race.

2.28.2018

The rail on the dirt track at Meydan is generally the place to be but this advantage seemed to be even more acute last week. It was impossible to close down the outer of the track and the three winners in the dirt all made every yard of the running against the rail. It will be interesting to see how the track plays this week in something of a low key week before we get to Super Saturday on March 10.
Just one winner last week in the form of Ertijaal, taking the season tally to 15 at this year’s Carnival. Here are four more selections:
Race 2 (10:05AM ET) - #3 Zaman (GB) (9/5)
I am taking the view that this horse can reverse recent form with Wasim on the basis that this trip of a mile will suit him a good deal better than the seven furlongs he raced over last time. He boasts strong European form - his second to Expert Eye at Goodwood stands out - and he did shape very well last time; finishing well having been further back than was ideal. This trip looks spot on for him and he will be hard to beat.
Race 4 (11:15AM ET) - #7 Top Score (GB) (5/2)
Ground loss in a race is one of the most underappreciated adversities that horses face in races and Top Score was undoubtedly a big sufferer on his latest start. Forced wide throughout, he gave away a lot of ground when finishing second last time to Oh This is Us, who got the perfect trip. The two meet again with roles reversed in terms of their stall positions. Top Score is in 2, his rival in 11, and this should help him to reverse placings on that rival.
Race 5 (11:50AM ET) - #10 Vazirabad (FR) (9/5)
This top class stayer finished second in this race last year before going on to win the Dubai Gold Cup On World Cup night. He could need the run here but, with a rating of 118, should get the job done under the brilliant Christophe Soumillon. Vazirabad is arguably better at two miles than this trip but he travels strongly and this is not a particularly strong renewal. I take him to be delivered late by Soumillon for a cheeky success.
Race 7 (1:00PM ET) - #2 Mountain Hunter (7/2)
A return to 10 furlongs will suit the progressive Mountain Hunter after he finished second to Blair House last week over a furlong less. From an inside draw, it was probably a mistake to not let him bowl along in front as he had done when winning on his previous start. If they revert to front running tactics he will be tough to beat. He has won three out of his four starts on turf and he should resume his progress.