NRF 2019: Retail's Big Show showcased several hot retail trends, including a rise in retailers taking their cues from consumers, investing in talent and continuing to integrate physical and digital retail, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay writes. "It was perhaps most interesting to see in the Innovation Lab, where presenters discussed how to make digital more like a store -- flipping the conventional wisdom," he writes.

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Positioning for future retail success starts with new metrics that include all sales channels to get a more accurate measure of performance, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay writes. Retailers will also need to understand new retail business models and effectively evaluate investments that won't start paying off for several years.

NRF is forecasting at least a 4.5% increase in 2018 sales after a strong first half and retailers expect a robust holiday season, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. He talks about challenges retailers are facing, including hiring in a tight labor market and the possible long-term fallout from tariffs and an escalating trade war with China.

Trump administration tariffs and the potential for a trade war are likely to wipe out the gains from last year's tax bill, including business investments in expansion and job creation, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. "It makes no sense to go down this road when we have all this momentum," he said.

Election ads are pushing aside traditional holiday retail spots, and 43% of consumers say they're spending more cautiously amid election concerns, according to an NRF survey. "Once the election has passed, we anticipate consumers will pull themselves out of the election doldrums and into the holiday spirit," said NRF CEO Matthew Shay.

Recently passed credit card rules don't apply to small-business cards, and a bill that would apply similar provisions to them has stalled in the House. Under the law that took effect in February, the Federal Reserve must recommend protections for small-business cardholders by May 22. Although some issuers have extended protections to holders of business cards, the banking lobby says extending credit to small businesses is more risky and that extending the protections would curtail credit.