Signal, the messaging app that prides itself on circumventing government
censorship, has a few new places where its flagship feature works. Last
week it was Egypt, and now users in Cuba and Oman can send messages
without fear of them being intercepted and altered by lawmakers. As
VentureBeat reports, the domain fronting feature is only available on
Android now, but, like the Egypt update, it should arrive on iOS shortly
thereafter. Given Cuba's penchant for censoring what its citizens see,
and its launch of state-sponsored home internet service, the timing is
perfect.

HAVANA (AFP) - Cuba welcomed a record four million tourists in 2016, up
13 per cent over last year, with much of the increase thanks to a crush
of visitors from the US and Europe, officials said on Saturday (Dec 31).

Havana's Ministry of Tourism said in a statement published in the Granma
official newspaper that the island set a record for international
visitors this year, exceeding projections by some 6 per cent.

Tourism is the number two source of revenue on the cash-strapped island,
second only to the export of doctors and other medical services.

Officials in Havana say the surge in US visitors is a result of the
restored relations with the United States - a thaw first announced by US
President Barack Obama and Cuba's President Raul Castro almost exactly
two years ago.

Although a decades-old US economic embargo remains in place, Obama has
chipped away at many trade and travel restrictions, easing access to the
communist island for many Americans.

The first US cruise ship to come to Cuba in more than 50 years docked in
Havana in May. Regular flights between the two countries have resumed.

US companies like Airbnb and Netflix now operate in Cuba, and hotel
group Starwood opened a Sheraton in Havana in June.

Nearly 137,000 Americans came to Cuba in the first half of 2016, an 80
per cent surge from the same period in 2015.

With Zika In Cuba, Visitors Asked To Bring Bug Spray To Share
By JULIO OCHOA
WIKIMEDIA

Travelers to Cuba should bring lots of mosquito repellant -- not just
for themselves.

The Zika virus is being spread by mosquitos in Cuba, so travelers are
being told to bring bug spray to protect themselves.
Suzanne Carlson, owner of Carlson Maritime Travel in Tarpon Springs,
says visitors should also bring extra to share with locals with no
access to bug repellant.

"The last time I was down there I asked some of my associates and
friends 'What can I bring you?'" Carlson said. "In the past mosquito
repellant wasn't on that list and it is now. 'Bring me repellant for my
children.'"

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a travel alert for
visitors to Cuba. It says people returning from the island should be on
alert for three weeks after their visit, trying to prevent new mosquito
bites and using protection during sex.

Cuba Allows Home Internet in Small Experiment
December 29, 2016 11:41 PM
Reuters

HAVANA —
Downtown Havana resident Margarita Marquez says she received a special
Christmas gift this year: web access at home, a rarity in a country with
one of the lowest internet penetration rates in the world.

Marquez, a 67-year-old retired university professor, was among those
selected by the government two weeks ago to participate in a pilot
project bringing the web into the homes of 2,000 inhabitants of the
historic center of the island's capital.

Most of Communist-ruled Cuba's 11.2 million inhabitants have access to
internet only at Wi-Fi hotspots, and only then if they can afford the
$1.50 hourly tariff that represents around 5 percent of the average
monthly state salary.

About 5 percent of Cubans are estimated to enjoy internet at home, which
requires government permission. This is usually granted mainly to
academics, doctors and intellectuals.

A dream come true, until March

"It's like a dream come true," said Marquez, who lives with her sister
in a second-story flat in a colonial-era building. "To be in touch with
the outside world is important."

Her 80-year-old sister, Leonor Franco, said the news that they had been
selected came as a surprise and she was excited to be surfing the web
for the first time.

"I had never had any experience of internet," she said, seated in front
of a laptop she has owned for two years without web access, searching
for videos of her favorite singers on YouTube.

She said she wanted to learn how to surf the web properly so she could
make the most of the experiment, and for as long as the government
provided free internet access.

"From March we will have to start paying and we don't know if we will be
able to continue. So at least we are going to enjoy January and
February," she said.

Cost drops but still high

While the cost of internet has dropped in recent years, it is still
prohibitive for most Cubans.

Cuba says it has been slow to develop network infrastructure because of
high costs in part because of the U.S. trade embargo. Critics say the
real reason is fear of losing control.

Before Wi-Fi signals became available last year, broadband internet
access had been limited largely to desktops at state internet parlors
and pricy hotels.

Carolina Gutierrez (center left), 17, and Neuil Valdez, 18, use mobile
phones to connect to the internet at a hotspot in downtown Havana, Cuba,
Dec. 12, 2016.
However, the government has said it wants to ensure everyone has access
and has installed 237 Wi-Fi hotspots so far. In September, it announced
it would install Wi-Fi along Havana's picturesque seafront boulevard,
the Malecon.

"There are many places now where you can go and sit and connect along
the Malecon," said Eliecer Samada as he sat on the stone wall lining the
boulevard, checking social media on his phone. "We're happy with this."

It is no secret that the sessions of the National Assembly of the
People's Power are a mere formality. Documents are discussed and
approved that have been "cooked up" by those in the upper echelons of
power, no representative dares suggest an approach contravening the
established script, and the votes are always unanimous.

However, this last session of the National Assembly was characterized by
a particular pallor. It seemed that this time, in a way more evident
than in the past, the conclave was undertaken as a burdensome chore.

The Standing Committees of the Parliament did not meet in the days prior
to the session of the Assembly; there was no Plenum of the Party's
Central Committee, for members to "coordinate" the views that they would
express at the Assembly; and Mr. Marino Murillo did not even bother to
report on progress with regards to the updating of the economic model.
Also of note was the fact that the press did not report at the time – as
had occurred in recent months ­– on the meeting of the Council of
Ministers, held on Saturday, 24 December.

Actually, it is not difficult to identify at least one of the causes of
the Government's despondency: this time there were only calamities to
report. Indeed, this 2016 was the worst year for the economy since Raúl
Castro came to power. They had no choice but to recognize the dip in the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and also had to admit that they failed to
follow through on the export plan, and were unable to pay suppliers for
many of the imports that the country had to bring in.

And, as almost always happens in these cases, it was evident that the
regime places the blame on certain shoulders. Among other culprits, they
singled out the Ministries of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment
(MINCEX), Agriculture (MINAGRI), and the Food Industry (MINAL).

Few would have wanted to be in the shoes of Rodrigo Malmierca, Minister
of MINCEX, when the General-President expressed his dissatisfaction with
the pace of foreign investment, due to excessive delays in the
negotiating process on the Cuban side, and the prejudices that still
exist against foreign investment. The situation is so alarming that the
2017 plan envisions only 6.5% of total investment proceeding from
foreign investors.

The aforementioned 2017 plan aims to import 82 million USD in food than
the previous year. The reason for this additional outlay, a heavy burden
given the precarious state of the country's external finances, is
failures by the MINAGRI and MINAL to meet food production goals.

Incidentally, on Sunday, December 25 the newspaper Juventud Rebelde
published a report in which it was announced that the MINAL's processing
industry had been unable to handle all the mango harvested, such that
much of that fruit had been wasted.

The truth is that at this session of the National Assembly the Minister
of the Economy and Planning, Ricardo Cabrisas, used the term "critical
situation" to refer to the state of the food industry on the Island. In
this regard he suggested coming up with a medium-term program to turn
the situation around. The days of María del Carmen Concepción – Carmita,
as Raúl Castro tends to call her – as at the helm of the MINAL are numbered.

In the end, the apprehension could extend to all the members of the
elite present at the meeting. Because, in addition to calling for an
increase in exports, and continuing down the path of import
substitution, the 2017 plan envisages reducing non-essential expenses to
a bare minimum, such that even those nice little trips abroad could be
cancelled.

And what about monetary unification? The subject was conspicuously
absent from this session of the National Assembly.

Friday, December 30, 2016

Cuba sets up free internet for Havana residents in pilot scheme
Only five per cent of Cubans are estimated to enjoy internet at home
SARAH MARSH

Downtown Havana resident Margarita Marquez says she received a special
Christmas gift this year: web access at home, a rarity in Cuba, a
country with one of the lowest internet penetration rates in the world.

Ms Marquez, a 67-year-old retired university professor, was among those
selected by the government two weeks ago to participate in a pilot
project bringing the web into the homes of 2,000 inhabitants of the
historic centre of the island's capital.

Most of Communist-ruled Cuba's 11.2 million inhabitants only have access
to internet at wi-fi hotspots, and only then if they can afford the 80p
hourly tariff that represents around five per cent of the average
monthly state salary.

Only five per cent of Cubans are estimated to enjoy internet at home,
which requires government permission. This is usually granted mainly to
academics, doctors and intellectuals.

"It's like a dream come true," said Ms Marquez, who lives with her
sister in a second-story flat in a colonial-era building. "To be in
touch with the outside world is important."

Her 80-year-old sister, Leonor Franco, said the news they had been
selected came as a surprise and she was excited to be surfing the web
for the first time.

"I had never had any experience of internet," she said, seated in front
of a laptop she has owned for two years without web access, searching
for videos of her favourite singers on YouTube.

She said she wanted to learn how to surf the web properly so she could
make the most of the experiment, and for as long as the government
provided free internet access.

"From March we will have to start paying and we don't know if we will be
able to continue. So at least we are going to enjoy January and
February," she said.

While the cost of internet has dropped in recent years, it is still
prohibitive for most Cubans.

Before wi-fi signals became available last year, broadband internet
access had been limited largely to desktops at state internet parlors
and pricy hotels.

However, the government has said it wants to ensure everyone has access
and has installed 237 wi-fi hotspots so far. In September, it announced
it would install wi-fi along Havana's picturesque seafront boulevard,
the Malecon.

"There are many places now where you can go and sit and connect along
the Malecon," said Eliecer Samada as he sat on the stone wall lining the
boulevard, checking social media on his phone. "We're happy with this."

Some 2,000 Cuban households are getting to grips with free Internet
access as part of a government-run pilot scheme in downtown Havana.

Cuba has one of the lowest online connectivity rates in the world. Just
five percent of its 11.2 million residents is estimated to have home Web
access.

Most Cubans can only access the Internet through public wi-fi hotspots.

Leonor Franco and her sister, Margarita Lopez, were among those chosen
to take part in the trial.

"I had never had any experience with the Internet, not even with
computers. I've only had the computer for two years. Before that (I had)
a typewriter. I'm a typist, but with a typewriter. But a computer, just
two years ago. It changed my life," said Leonor.

Margarita was equally enthusiastic.

"It's wonderful. It's a dream come true for me. I had some things at the
university where I worked that I always wanted to have at home and one
of them was the Internet. If for nothing else, just to be able to send
emails with my friends and family. That's important," she said.

ETECSA, the island nation's state telecoms company, is offering free
Internet access until the end of February to assess the feasibility of
nationwide connectivity.

Louisiana state government spent more than $150,000 on Cuba trip
By Julia O'Donoghue, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
on December 29, 2016 at 4:30 PM, updated December 30, 2016 at 11:23 AM

The Louisiana state government spent at least $150,134 on a five-day
trade mission in October to Cuba for Gov. John Bel Edwards, Agriculture
Commissioner Mike Strain and 20 other state workers, according to public
records obtained by NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune. Of the total
expense, over 23 percent was for the governor's security personnel.

Edwards, a Democrat, and Strain, a Republican, took the trip in part
because the GOP-dominated Legislature charged the Edwards administration
with strengthening the state's relationship with Cuba. Lawmakers last
spring approved a resolution requiring the Economic Development agency
to "develop and improve trade relations with Cuba" and return with a
full report to lawmakers by February.

Louisiana is Cuba's leading trade partner in the United States,
exporting about $1.4 billion worth of goods to the Caribbean country in
the past decade. If the federal government relaxes its restrictions on
trade with Cuba, it's thought Louisiana could exponentially expand its
import and export business there, particularly in the agricultural sector.

While in Cuba, Edwards and other Louisiana officials signed agreements
with the Cuban government to expand the state's trade relationship with
Cuba, if the federal government ever relaxes its policy toward the
country. "We have to find a way forward, and we need to work diligently
to increase trade," Strain said in an interview last week.

NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune obtained records of public spending on the
trip through public records requests to LSU and four state agencies. The
state government ended up paying travel bills for 22 state employees,
including the governor and agriculture commissioner. It also covered
expenses for the governor's wife, Donna Edwards.

The cost of most state employees on the trip amounted to at least $5,275
each, according to the records. All employees on the trip, including
the governor, had their travel booked through Cuba Educational Travel
LLC. This covered a seat on the charter flight for the Louisiana
delegation, four nights at a hotel in Havana, breakfast and some other
meals, bilingual guides, transportation in Cuba and museum admissions,
among other things.

Some officials on the trip - including Strain and Transportation
Secretary Shawn Wilson - also had their tips, additional meals, taxi
fares and some of their parking fees at the New Orleans airport
reimbursed by state government. Those expenses - not submitted by every
person on the trip - ranged from $87 to $187 for the five-day period,
according to a review of public records.

The Louisiana government also gave out several hundred dollars worth of
small gifts - including pens, notebooks and coffee table books -- in
Cuba. The items typically have a Louisiana seal on them and have been
used on a variety of economic development trips over the year. About 200
Spanish coloring books were also purchased to be distributed in Cuba,
according to public records.

Unelected state employees on the trip were three members of the
governor's staff; three members of the Agriculture and Forestry
Department; four members of the Economic Development Department,
including Secretary Don Pierson, two members of the Department of
Transportation and Development including Secretary Wilson; former state
Sen. Robert Adley, R-Benton, from the Louisiana Offshore Terminal
Authority; two LSU professors and an LSU administrator.

The governor's security staff accompanied him on the trip. When a
governor goes on a trade mission, it often drives up the expense
considerably. Edwards' security personnel alone cost about $35,000 on
the Cuba venture, the largest single expense of the trip. About $13,600
of that bill was for paying state troopers' overtime while abroad.

The Cuba trip was Edwards' first trade mission since taking office in
January.

Previous governors also have racked up charges when they traveled abroad
on official business. The state spent $73,000 on former Gov. Bobby
Jindal's security personnel when Jindal went on a trade mission to
Europe in 2015; about $36,500 of that bill was just for the troopers'
overtime.

This trip was supposed to demonstrate Louisiana's seriousness in doing
business with Cuba, should the federal government loosen current
restrictions. In 2005, then-Gov. Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat, also
traveled for three days to Cuba to establish a relationship, but
Jindal, the Republican governor from 2008 through 2015, completely
avoided contact with the communist country.

Delegations from other states - Arkansas, New York, Missouri, Texas and
Virginia --- also have traveled to Cuba, according to Louisiana's
economic development staff. But the Edwards administration thinks the
Louisiana group enjoyed better access to high-level Cuban officials.

"We believe Louisiana is the only U.S. state to succeed in arranging
meetings with all of the top Cuban government ministries for which we
requested an audience," Pierson said.

State employees weren't the only people to accompany Edwards and Strain
on the October trip. Thirty-two people from the private sector and
Louisiana ports also attended. They, too, booked their trip through Cuba
Educational Travel, LLC for $5,275 per person and took the same charter
flight and stayed in the same hotels as the state employees. The state
government did not pay for their travel, according to the Edwards
administration.

The private sector representatives included people from Louisiana's rice
industry and ports as well as The Water Institute of the Gulf, New
Orleans Zephyrs, Baton Rouge Area Foundation, CenturyLink and lobbyist
Randy Haynie. Two members of the news media also attended.

Nor was this the state's first official trip to Cuba this year. Strain
lead an even larger delegation, of about 95 people, in July. The costs
of that trip haven't been calculated, but it included Strain, one member
of his staff and four legislators - Sens. Conrad Appel, R-Metairie, and
Sharon Hewitt, R-Chalmette, and Reps. Patrick Connick, R-Harvey, and
Marcus Hunter, D-Monroe. A couple of employees of the University of
Louisiana at Monroe also went on the trip. Appel said the state
government did not fund his travel. He paid for it out-of-pocket.

The July trip was supposed to lay the groundwork for the governor's
visit three months later. It also included private sector
representatives from the Louisiana rice industry, the Farm Bureau
Federation, Cox Communications and former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu,
D-La., now a lobbyist in Washington with the Van Ness Feldman firm.

U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham, R-Alto, has also gone to Cuba in trips separate
from the state delegations and is pushing in Congress to relax trade
restrictions with the country. But it's not clear where the U.S. policy
toward Cuba is headed.

At the time that Edwards and Strain took their trip in October, it was
assumed Hillary Clinton would be elected president Nov. 8. Clinton was
expected to continue President Barack Obama's trajectory on Cuba, by
relaxing restrictions on travel and trade.

President-elect Donald Trump threatened during the campaign to revert to
more restrictions on travel and trade with Cuba. He said he would undo
Obama's warming of the U.S.-Cuba relationship.

In Louisiana, the push for a more open relationship with Cuba is
bipartisan, led by two Republicans -- Strain and Abraham -- in part
because of the opportunities it presents for Louisiana agricultural
industry. But not all Republicans in Louisiana are on board. U.S. Rep.
Garret Graves, R-Baton Rouge, said in an interview last month that he
was "open" to the idea but still had concerns about human rights
violations in the country.

And House Majority Whip Steve Scalise of Jefferson said in an interview
he was not interested in improving U.S. diplomatic relations with Cuba
at all until that country addressed its human rights problems. Scalise
is not only the most powerful member of the Louisiana congressional
delegation but also the member with the best access to Trump.

Trump's stated views on Cuba haven't deterred Strain from pushing for a
relaxed relationship between the U.S. and the island country. Strain
went to the White House in both November and December to talk Cuba
relations, albeit with the Obama administration. The most recent meeting
took place Dec. 15. The trips were paid for by the National Association
of State Departments of Agriculture, which Strain leads.

Strain remains positive about the U.S.-Cuba relationship. He said the
next step is to have Cuban officials visit Louisiana. The 2017 New
Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival will highlight Cuban culture, so any
delegation would likely coincide with that event this spring, Strain said.

Edwards has not yet scheduled another trip abroad. In October, he said
he might consider a visit to France, where several other governors have
led delegations.

But state officials are certainly aware their communications might be
monitored. In emails released through the public records request, Wilson
warned about communicating over government email.

"Please do not use this email for personal communications as it is all
subject to public records laws," Wilson wrote on Sept. 8.

. . . . . . .
Julia O'Donoghue is a state politics reporter based in Baton Rouge. She
can be reached at jodonoghue@nola.com or on Twitter at @jsodonoghue.
Please consider following us on Facebook at NOLA.com.

Ghanaian medical students in Cuba have called for immediate
restructuring of the Cuban-Ghana medical program after decrying what
they termed "maltreatment" suffered under the programme for years.

The 250 students who have spent four years in Cuba studying a 7-year
programme in medicine, complained bitterly of government's neglect,
which have compelled many of them to device some unhealthy and demeaning
means to survive as they are faced with hunger and dejection.

"We wish to hereby state that enough of the negligence, the disrespect
to human dignity, the violation of human rights, enough of the
shamelessness, enough of the cruelty under the guise that 'there are no
funds", the students noted in a memo endorsed by the leadership
including its President, Ahmed Hughes; Vice President, Samuel Agamah;
and PRO, Abraham B. Buernor.

"For about 8 months this year we have not been paid our monthly
stipends, book allowance, health insurance and for our fees and
accommodations. We have spoken to government and embassy here but have
come to no resolution. It's quite unbearable now for all students,"
Abraham Buernor said in a follow up interview.

Recounting the harsh condition they are faced with at the strict
communist state, the students said some of the potential medical doctors
have fallen foul of the laws of Cuban because they dared to survive.

They also mentioned the psychological trauma students had to go through,
including the inability of the female students to afford sanitary pads
for their monthly flow. The students wondered in the memo, "We are not
asking for too much but just what is needed for a human to survive that
is if Ghana no longer value the investments she has made, because we all
know the consequence of this inhumane treatment."

The medical students are therefore recommending among others: An
immediate overview be done on the Cuban-Ghana medical program.

We are also requesting that our stipends be paid as soon as possible,
whether it be a privilege or a right. As a matter of fact the argument
that Ghanaian students studying abroad have been given a privilege is
fundamentally flawed and unintelligent, because what kind of privilege
is backed by a legal document.

The scholarship secretariat, as an institution of the government, can
take loans from banks or from any other place on behalf of the
government to pay monies due the Ghana-Cuba Medical Scholarship holders
which would be paid later when budget for the secretariat are made
available.

Scholarship Secretariat can create a heritage fund, an account which
could be reached for some of these emergencies thereby reducing the
impact of any delays in release of budget for the secretariat.

Our monthly maintenance and book allowances could be separated from the
total budget due the Cuban government and paid before the others are
later paid.

The group of 250 students arrived in Cuba on May 22, 2012 under the
administration of late President Prof. John Evans Atta Mills, with the
aim of bringing to light the vision of the country in improving delivery
of medical services to the Ghanaian population.

Raul Castro wishes to withdraw from power fully faithful to his
brother's principles. Nothing, not a single sign of change
PEDRO CAMPOS | La Habana | 30 de Diciembre de 2016 - 00:33 CET.

The general philosophy that will pervade the Government next year, until
the promised resignation of General Raúl Castro, was clearly outlined in
his closing speech at the regular session of the eighth convocation of
the National Assembly of Popular Power.

According to a summary of the speech published by Granma on Dec. 27,
Army General Raúl Castro Ruz, blamed "the limitations on fuel supplies
and aggravated financial stress on falling export earnings and the
prices of the main goods" for the poor performance of the nationalized
Cuban economy, which last year saw a 0.9% decrease in its Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).

And he went on: "Another factor impacting the Cuban economy was the
damage done by Hurricane Mathew" and "the negative effects generated by
the blockade cannot be forgotten," while stating that "nevertheless,
free education and health services will be preserved.2

Based on these excerpts, it is clear that the blame for our problems and
economic disaster will continue to be blamed on external factors and
natural disasters, without any recognition of the ruinous role of
statism, the centralization of decisions and the country's property and
resources, or a reevaluation of the poor performance of state monopolies
on the domestic and foreign markets. To top it all off, the regime shall
persist in preaching the idea of ​​the state as sacrosanct creator of
wealth, while snubbing producers, and in claiming that health care and
education are "free."

Moreover, he stated that to achieve the modest growth figure of 2% in
the plan for 2017 it will be necessary to follow through on three key
objectives: "ensuring exports and timely collection on them, increasing
domestic production, replacing imports; and reducing any non-essential
spending." He also added that: "A crucial aspect to achieve this will be
overcoming, once and for all, the outdated mentality, steeped in
prejudices, against foreign investment."

The lines reveal that hopes for development and growth will be left to
factors stated on other occasions, and will have nothing to do with
pursuing efficiency in production methods and organization. Neither will
there be any effort to provide incentives to work, and production
methods and technologies – such as payment for labor, cooperatives and
domestic private enterprise – will continue to be neglected. Rather,
hopes will be placed on international capitalism coming to save "Cuban
socialism" from the foreseeable debacle.

Raúl Castro added that "the historic leader of the Cuban Revolution left
us his undying example, his unwavering optimism and faith in victory.
The best monument to his ideals and work is to realize every day the
principles enshrined in his brilliant definition of the concept of
Revolution."

This reference to Fidel's faith in victory and the vague principles of
the "Fidelian" vision of revolution, so distant from that of Marx and
other modern revolutionaries, serves to further suggest that the same
path of populism, voluntarism, centralism and state employment that have
characterized the policies applied in Cuba since 1959 will be taken.

Raul Castro wishes to withdraw from power fully faithful to his
brother's principles. Nothing, not a single sign of changes. The idea
seems to be to let those who follow fend for themselves.

The democratic aims propounded to mobilize the Cuban people in the
struggle against Batista, and wielded by the Socialists in 1961 to
enlist workers, peasants, students and all the people to build a more
advanced society, will be once again deferred, to further pursue social
justice according to fidelismo, which have nothing to do with democracy,
human rights, or socialism.

It remains to be seen whether the decrepit economy, foreign generosity
and the aspirations of the majority of the Cuban people will endure
another year, without somehow sparking the urgent and necessary
political, economic and social changes demanded by a good part of Cuba's
intellectuals, workers and people at large.

Thursday, December 29, 2016

HAVANA (AP) — Cuba announced Tuesday that its economy shrank this year
for the first time in nearly a quarter century as a plunge in aid from
Venezuela overwhelmed a surge in tourism set off by detente with the
United States.

Cabrisas blamed the slump on Venezuela's troubles and a decrease in
revenue from Cuba's few exports, which include sugar, refined gasoline
and nickel, whose price has dropped in recent years.

"In spite of the drop in GDP, the free social services that our
population enjoys have been preserved, defying predictions that the
Cuban economy would collapse and upsetting blackouts would return,"
Castro said.

The two men spoke to Cuba's rubber-stamp National Assembly, which also
passed a law announced by Castro last month banning public memorials to
his brother Fidel, the revolutionary leader who died on Nov. 25 at age 90.

The last time official figures showed a fall in Cuba's gross domestic
product was in 1993 after the Soviet Union collapsed, abruptly stripping
away much of the island's aid and trade.

A global drop in petroleum prices has slammed Venezuela's oil-dependent
economy, forcing it to reduce shipments of heavily subsidized crude oil
to Cuba, with exports dropping from 115,000 barrels daily in 2008 to
90,000 in recent years to 40,000 in the past few months.

In addition, the number of contracts for Cuban professional services
with Venezuela has dwindled and some payments have not been made,
Cabrisas said. A large number of Cuban doctors have long traveled to
Venezuela, with their salaries going directly to Cuba's government.

"This confirms what we had said about Venezuela's situation leading to a
recession," Cuban economist Pavel Vidal, a professor at a university in
Colombia, told The Associated Press.

Cabrisas, whose speech was partially transmitted on public TV, also
blamed the economic slump on U.S. sanctions on Cuba, with officials
previously saying that the 55-year-old embargo has cost the island
$125.9 billion, including $4.6 billion last year.

Tourism, however, has been thriving since U.S. President Barack Obama
ordered the restoration of diplomatic relations between Washington and
Havana two years ago. Overall visitor numbers rose more than 15 percent
in 2015 and again this year.

Cabrisas said he expects the island's gross domestic product to grow 2
percent next year if the government cuts costs, increases exports and
finds alternatives for certain imports.

Vidal said he was surprised by the prediction.

"They're thinking things are going to improve in Venezuela," he said.
"And they're relying on fiscal spending without backing from revenue."

Other economic experts told The Associated Press that possible solutions
could include boosting the private sector and deregulating portions of
the public sector, excluding areas such as health or education.

Cuba's National Assembly approved a law on Tuesday that bans
commemorative statues of Fidel Castro and naming public places after
him, in accordance with the wishes of the revolutionary leader, who died
last month.

Castro always said he did not want a cult of personality, although
critics point out that the cult was everywhere. His words are posted on
billboards nationwide and his name is invoked at every public event.

"His fighting spirit will remain in the conscience of all Cuban
revolutionaries, today, tomorrow and always," President Raul Castro,
Fidel's younger brother, told the Assembly, according to excerpts of his
speech published by official media.

The best way to pay homage to "El Comandante" - the commander - is to
follow his concept of revolution, the president said.

The new law does not ban artists from using Fidel Castro's figure in
music, literature, dance, cinema or other visual arts, official media
specified. Photos of him hanging in offices, places of study or public
institutions also may be kept.

Every since his death, a large photo of a young Castro dressed in
military fatigues, with a rifle and pack slung over his back, has hung
from a building in Havana's Revolution Square.

Castro, a leading Cold War figure who built a communist state on the
doorstep of the United States and defied U.S. attempts to topple him,
died on Nov. 25 at the age of 90, eight years after handing the
presidency over to Raul.

Cuba commemorated his death with nine official days of mourning and two
mass memorial services.

Hundreds of thousands of Cubans also turned out to greet a funeral
cortege carrying Castro's ashes 600 miles (1,000 km) east to Santiago,
retracing the route that his rebels took when they overthrew the
U.S.-backed Fulgencio Batista in 1959.

For 10 years, Raúl has benefited a lot from having Fidel around. Fidel
always showed up at the big celebrations or wrote a column.

Forget that. It won't be pretty in 2017, as we see in this report from
the AP:

Castro must manage these twin economic and diplomatic challenges during
a year of transition. The 85-year-old general has promised to hand over
the office in early 2018 to a successor, widely expected to be Miguel
Diaz-Canel, a 56-year-old official with neither the Castro name nor
revolutionary credentials. The change will occur without Castro's older
brother Fidel, the revolutionary leader whose largely unseen presence
endowed the system he created with historical weight and credibility in
the eyes of many Cubans before he died last month at 90.

"Even if those two events hadn't taken place -- Trump's victory and
Fidel's death -- 2017 was going to be a very difficult year for Cuba,"
said Cuban economist Omar Everleny Perez, a visiting professor at Keio
University in Tokyo.

Cuba publishes few credible economic statistics, but experts expect the
country to end this year with gross domestic product growth of 1 percent
or less. It maintained a rate close to 3 percent from 2011-2015.

By the way, it's nice to see an analyst admit that Cuba produces very
little credible economic data. This is why so many have been skeptical
of health care or literacy gains boasted by Cuba.

Back to the economy.

Indeed, there are tourists, but it does not seem to help the Cuban
economy. This is because Cubans have very little to gain from these
hotels and restaurants where tourists are spending their dollars.

Add to this the mismanagement of Cuba's economy, and you have profits
that end up in the Castro accounts rather than the pockets of the Cuban
people.

We are not saying this is new. Cuba has always been for the benefit of
Castro and the gang that protects him. However, this is the first time
that they are going to do without a USSR subsidy, EU loans, cheap
Venezuela oil, or a U.S. president willing to go around the embargo.

It will be Raúl vs. reality in 2017, and the Cuban elites don't have a
clue of what will hit them. There is no one waiting to bail them out
anymore.

Silver Airways plans to trim its flight schedule to Cuba starting early
next year, becoming the second U.S. airline to reduce the frequency of
flights to the island, Travel Weekly reported.

Between January and February, the airline — which flies out of Fort
Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) — plans to reduce the
number of flights on six of its nine destinations to the island.

The frequency of flights from FLL to Camagüey will be reduced from five
weekly trips to three; to Cayo Coco, from three weekly flights to two;
to Holguín, to three per week instead of one daily flight; to
Manzanillo, from three weekly flights to two; and to Varadero, Silver
will trim its four weekly flights to three. Flights to Santiago will
also be reduced in February from one daily flight to three per week,
according to Routesonline.com.

"As with all of our network and all airlines, seasonal schedule
adjustments are common to best match demand," Silver Airways said in a
statement. "We are pleased with bookings thus far particularly given
that many major online travel agents have yet to begin selling U.S.
carrier flights to Cuba.

"As codeshare connections and other distribution channels begin to open
to Cuba, we will reassess individual route frequencies at that time,"
the statement said.

Silver Airways began regular flights to the island in September. The
airline does not offer flights to Havana.

The Silver Airways flights reduction follows American Airlines, which
announced in November that it would cut nearly a quarter of its flights
to Cuba early next year due to poor demand. American, the U.S. carrier
with most flights to the island, had scheduled five daily flights to
Havana and 56 weekly flights to other Cuban cities. But just over a
month into operation, many of the flights were going half empty.

Some speculation followed AA's decision to cut back on its Cuba schedule
just days before the presidential election. President-elect Donald Trump
promised during his campaign to overturn President Obama's policies of
rapproachment toward the Communist-ruled island.

In February, Cuba and the U.S. reestablished commercial air service
between the two countries for the first time in more than five decades.
The agreement, which excluded charter flights already operating from the
U.S. to the island, allowed up to 110 daily flights.

In August, JetBlue Flight 387 from Fort Lauderdale to Santa Clara became
the first commercial flight from the U.S. to Cuba since 1961. That same
day, eight U.S. airlines received authorization from the Department of
Transportation (DOT) to fly between 10 U.S. cities and Havana.

With the new options, several airlines substantially reduced their
ticket prices to Cuba, with JetBlue and Southwest offering rates under $60.

However, Americans still must abide by some restrictions. Going just as
a tourist, for example, remains prohibited by the embargo, and
passengers living in the U.S. who are not Cuban must first obtain a visa
under one of 12 categories established by the U.S. Department of Treasury.

What the reform measures implemented by Raúl Castro in 2006 have
achieved, and failed to
ELÍAS AMOR | Valencia | 29 de Diciembre de 2016 - 10:12 CET.

The close of 2016 marks a wasted year for the Cuban economy. A few days
ago the CEPAL announced that GDP growth would be 0.4%, one of the lowest
in Latin America, marking an economy close to stagnation. This situation
is particularly aggravated by the overlapping factors of a growing
fiscal deficit estimated at 6.8% of GDP, despite the fact that the State
takes in about 60% of the GDP, closely related to the poor internal
figure, and a marked imbalance in visible trade, with a very low
coverage ratio of below 40, which contrasts, however, with the more
favorable development in Tourism revenues and remittances from families
abroad.

Analysts note that the reform measures introduced by Raúl Castro in 2006
are not producing the expected results. Despite the thawing of relations
with Obama, those responsible for the economy have kept the private
sector on a tight leash, despite the fact that it is the only force
capable of reversing the adverse economic situation. Since 2015, the
number of self-employed workers has not risen over half a million, a
mark achieved in the early stages, and this stagnation is not related as
much to the limitation on trades and professions that the regime imposed
on the private sector as it is to the lack of prospects, the absence of
funding, and difficulties operating within the framework of an economy
based on state intervention, without a market or property rights.

Neither does the new regulation to attract foreign investment, or the
international marketing campaigns for the Mariel Special Development
Area seem to be yielding the expected results; while it is true that
businesspeople are attracted by the "project portfolio," they vanish
when they see who is on the other side of the table, the shortage of
domestic funding, and the problems they will face freely hiring workers.
These are aspects on which the regime insists that it does not intend to
make changes, which will further repel potential investors.

The authorities blame every ill on the US embargo and blockade, despite
the progress made since the meeting between Castro and Obama, and the
fact that Cuba currently trades with every country in the world, and has
even managed to secure very generous debt forgiveness and payment
deferrals rarely granted to countries with such a poor track record when
it comes to meeting their payment obligations. In addition, its external
dependence is increasing, because remittances from families abroad and
increased travel have become the main sources of revenue, while
Venezuela's oil commitments have experienced a clear dip.

Most investors currently operating on the Island agree that collecting
for services takes more than a year, and that the Central Bank has no
control over payments, which depend directly on the elite running the
country. Doing business on the Island requires taking out loan insurance
on exports in their countries of origin. Almost always, funded by state
enterprises. In any case, the control of foreign currency and capital
movements is far from being liberalized.

In 2016 looming economic alarm bells started to ring. The ageing of the
population is accelerating, without the adoption of measures to deal
with a process that threatens potential long-term growth. Meanwhile,
immigration tension has accelerated due to fear of a change in US policy
towards Cuban arrivals. Adjustments at inefficient state enterprises
came to a halt as a result of union protests, which has meant the
maintenance of high levels of underemployment, which systematically
undermines productivity in most sectors. Finally, the obsession with
control and the centralization of commercial distribution and logistics
continues to cause supply problems, not only for consumer markets, but
even worse, for those of intermediate goods. It is clear that the model
of the old Central Planning Board (JUCEPLAN) is absolutely incapable of
solving these problems, whose severity has increased.

The dual currency system remains in place, accepted as a lesser evil by
the population, despite the problems of credibility that functioning
this way entails for an economy. Plans for the lifting of the dual
system apparently have been forgotten. There have been timid advances in
the field of Telecommunications and the Internet, but home penetration
rates are still low. The astronomical rates relative to the salaries
paid in Cuba, and technological levels, remain far too low to make
possible actions improving basic services, such as banking or payment at
shops or service companies, to cite a couple of examples. The so-called
"Guidelines " have not even managed to improve the interaction between
productive sectors and activities (the most obvious example is the
construction of housing, insufficient to meet the population's demands)
nor to reduce imports.

Cubans suffer the direct consequences of this dreadful economic
management in two ways. First, they face structural situations of
shortages and, at times, price increases, which have spurred the
authorities to set price ceilings – one of the most inefficient
solutions to address these problems. Therefore, although nominal wages
have increased, the average is so low that real wages have suffered due
to price increases and a reduction in regulated rations, which the
regime was forced to implement as a result of the increase in the
deficit. Secondly, the realization that current policies yield little
hope for economic improvement, and only uncertainty about the future,
increases disaffection with the ruling class.

With Fidel Castro out of the picture, many are already placing wages on
how long Cubans will put up with things before taking to the streets to
protest and confront a system that runs contrary to human reason.

In the end it all goes back to the problems of the Castroist economy and
its hallmarks: the lack of a legal system safeguarding private property
rights, the lack of a market as the basic tool for resource allocation,
a low level of investment in the GDP, the inability of prices to perform
their function as indicators of value, and it can be concluded that none
of the reform measures introduced since 2006 have managed to solve these
problems, which constitute the true burdens weighing down an economy
that could get worse in 2017. Ten years wasted in the management of an
economy that has not benefitted all Cubans.

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Juan Juan Almeida, 16 December 2016 — Twenty-seven years after Cause
Number 1, the judicial proceedings that resulted in the deaths by firing
squad and arrests of several high officials of the Cuban army and secret
services, Ileana de la Guardia–daughter of the then-colonel of State
Security of the Havana regime–believes that the decision to execute her
father was made by the Cuban dictator to teach a lesson.

According to De La Guardia, who lives under asylum in France, Castro did
not accept the critiques that her father and others, such as the general
Arnaldo Ochoa–also executed–made regarding the need for changes in the
country. She affirmed that the deaths of her father, Ochoa, and two
other officials served as a way to cast the blame on them for the charge
by United States Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) that Cuba was involved in
international drug trafficking.

Until the time of your father's trial, who was Ileana de la Guardia, how
did you learn of the trial, how did you experience it?

At that time I was living in Cuba, had finished my university studies,
and was a psychologist. I learned of the seizures of my father and my
uncle, Patricio de la Guardia, on the same day. We did not know where
they were nor what the charges were. Eventually, we learned that they
were being held at Villa Marista [Central Offices of Cuban State
Security], and we went there. Upon arriving we were told that they were
being detained, that they were not arrested, that we had to leave, and
that nobody could tell us what the charges were. This is how justice
works in Cuba–"justice" in quotation marks, that is, because it is not
justice.

A week went by, and I was given the authorization to see my father. I
asked him if he knew what he was being accused of and he told me no. I
also asked him if he would be tried, and he said he didn't know. That
same day in the evening, when I arrived at my grandparents' house, I
learned from a phone call that I was required to appear in the
auditorium of the Armed Forces (FAR) the next day because that was where
the hearing would take place.

Imagine receiving this news without them having the right to have their
lawyers present. The lawyers who were there were "public" defenders. The
one assigned to my father told me that he was ashamed to represent him.
The one for Patricio told us that he had not had time to read the file
and did not really know how to defend "that gentleman."

That was when we knew that they were all lawyers with the Ministry of
the Interior (MININT). Before starting the proceedings, before trying
them, Granma newspaper ran headlines announcing the death penalty. The
front page said, "we will cleanse with blood this offense to the
fatherland." It was clear that the decision to execute them had already
been made.

The trial was a kind of circus in which all were accused or accused
themselves. Later we learned that they had been blackmailed, that they
had to incriminate themselves to escape the death penalty–and to protect
their families–there was a lot of blackmail with regard to the families.
Thus the trial went until the end.

Our family wanted to appeal, but we were denied. Later, the Council of
State, fully and unanimously, came down in favor of execution. They were
executed exactly one month after being arrested: General Arnaldo Ochoa;
Martínez, the assistant; my father, Colonel Antonio de la Guardia; and
his assistant, Amado Padrón.

The memory of that trial brings back images of confusion and much
division within the high military command. How do you remember it, and
what were the repercussions for you, your family?

The consequence for our family was being watched all the time. There
were always cars parked near where we lived, and when we went out, these
cars would follow us with officials inside them who would watch us.
There were also cameras filming us from the houses across the street
from ours.

Your father, as well as Patricio (the brother of your father, Antonio de
la Guardia), and General Arnaldo Ochoa were well-known and admired men.
Throughout that trial, what happened with their friends?

I could not say that all the friends stopped seeing us; I believe some
people were afraid, others were not. I maintained relationships with
many people who continued coming to see us. I know that many people were
let go from the MININT, many officials, a high percentage. That ministry
was taken over by Abelardo Colomé Ibarra, who up until that moment was
in the FAR. There was a takeover of the Interior Ministry by military
officials.

What information do you have about the real reason that your father and
the other defendants in Cause Number 1 of 1989 were executed?

From the beginning, I knew immediately that the charges against Ochoa
and Patricio, who were in Africa, were trumped up. All of them were
charged with drug trafficking, which made no sense. If they were working
in Africa throughout so many years, directing the Cuban troops in
Africa, how were they going to be accused of something that they
couldn't control? If drug trafficking was going on, and the ships were
docking in Cuba, it was happening while these men were in Africa.

Later we realized that Raúl Castro, in a speech to the armed forces that
was broadcast on television, had said, "those officials who are
criticizing, let them go to Eastern Europe," and then, "down with Ochoa."

Then, connecting the dots, we realized that Ochoa and the group of
officials around him criticized Fidel Castro and the regime a great deal
because of the need for changes. This reached the ears of Fidel
and Raúl because Ochoa had made sure to make it public, within the army
and in family gatherings–besides telling them directly.

This is the fundamental reason why Fidel decided to eliminate these
officials: because of the political aspect.

Meanwhile, the DEA was accusing Cuba of involvement in drug trafficking
to the United States, and Castro found the perfect excuse to eliminate
these military men while at the same time eliminate the DEA's accusation
of the Cuban government.

Prior to these events, what would you hear your father say about Fidel
Castro?

As of 1986 or 87, there were very critical articles starting to appear
in the press in Cuba, in the [Spanish-language Soviet] magazines Sputnik
and Novedades de Moscú, which spoke of glasnost and about how Gorbachev
was trying to make rapid changes.

People read these publications and these topics were discussed a great
deal in my father's house, we would speak of it on the patio. They
thought the place might be bugged but they didn't care.

The fact of being at a high level of command and knowing that the
Soviets were already changing the system made them think that Fidel
Castro would accept this. They thought that he couldn't be so crazy as
to oppose the changes. "He has to realize that this doesn't work
anymore, people must be given freedoms to express themselves, to travel,
to have human rights"–they talked about all of this.

When I left Cuba–first to Mexico and later to Spain–it was very
difficult to talk about this because we were still undocumented, we had
no residency anywhere, no political asylum. It was in France, where we
received support, including political asylum, where I decided to speak
publicly. Articles started to come out, journalists started to
investigate, and other facts emerged. We learned that there are
officials in Russia who say that Ochoa met in private with Gorbachev in
Cuba. Ochoa spoke Russian, there was nobody else present, Gorbachev
wanted to speak only with Ochoa. Fidel could not stand this.

Ochoa never kept quiet about anything. One day, right in front of me at
Patricio's house, he said, "This has to change, it cannot go on this
way, that man is insane, what are we going to do with the crazy man."

In Cuba, it was always said that the writer Gabriel García Márquez,
winner of the Nobel Prize in literature and personal friend of Fidel
Castro, tried to intercede so that they would not execute your father
and Arnaldo Ochoa. Is this true?

What I know for sure, because my husband Jorge Masetti and I went to see
him, is that we took García Márquez a letter from my grandmother, asking
him to intervene so that these officials, including my father, would not
be put to death.

He told us, "I will do everything possible, I believe that this is not a
good idea, and I have tried to get across to Fidel Castro that it is not
a good idea for him personally." But I never had proof that he did this.

After the execution, did you ever see García Márquez again? Did he tell
you anything about this matter?

No, never again. I was now the daughter of a traitor. García Márquez was
a powerful man, friend to powerful men. After being executed, my father
was no longer a powerful man, he was a victim.

Did you have the chance to speak with your father after the sentence and
before the execution?

Yes, before the trial, then during the trial I had a visit, during which
he gave me to understand that they asked him to take responsibility and
then they would not execute him, but that there was blackmail regarding
the family and also with his life, and if he did not say that
[incriminate himself], they would execute him.

And they did execute him. During the visit prior to the execution, which
was very personal, he said, "things are going to get bad, but very bad,
in this country." Later came the "Special Period [grave economic
crisis]." He knew what was awaiting Cuba.

Have you had any further news of your uncle Patricio, where he's living?
Does the government provide him with any retirement pension?

I cannot speak about this very much because it is a bit sensitive. What
I can say is that he paints, because they [Antonio and Patricio de la
Guardia] were painters before being military men, and they studied at an
art school in the United States. He paints very well. He lives in the
family home, it is not a house given to him by the Cuban state. Our
family had properties before 1959. I don't speak much about him these
days, because if I say where he is or if I say too much, they will throw
him in jail again.

Do you have contact with the family of General Ochoa or any of the other
executed officers?

No, none.

In 2006, because of illness, Fidel Castro gave over the command of the
country to his brother, Raúl. The day after this announcement, I entered
the cafeteria of the Karl Marx Theater in Havana, ran into one of the
daughters of General Ochoa, and she told me, "I don't want him to die, I
want Fidel to suffer at least the half of what my family has suffered."
What did you feel at that time, when you heard this announcement, and
what was your reaction when you found out that Fidel Castro had died?

At first, I didn't believe it. When they called me from the US and my
husband answered the telephone, I said to him, "He died again? I want to
continue sleeping, leave me in peace." Later when I got up and realized
that it was true, it was like a sense of relief.

My husband asked me, what do you feel? I told him an enormous relief.
The matter is that for me, it's as if I had died spiritually. Besides, I
already knew that he was ill and that he had lost his senses somewhat,
given the things he would say. For me, he was like a shadow, a ghost.
But that sense of relief was also because that symbol of the repression
is no more, he doesn't exist.

Does the death of Fidel Castro modify or change what 13 July 1989, means
to you and your family?

To a certain point, I will tell you that for me, it is a relief that the
one responsible, who decided the death of my father, has died, and in a
certain way it gives me joy, I must admit. I cannot say that the death
of him who ordered my father to be executed makes me sad, that would be
absurd. That would be hypocrisy.

What does Raúl Castro mean to you?

For me, Raúl Castro represents the continuation of the system, with
certain attributes different from those of his brother. They are two
different people and have different command styles. The two have that
ideologically dogmatic aspect, but perhaps Raúl is a bit more pragmatic,
thus the changes that have been made on the economic level.

This is why I have been in favor of Obama's visit, the opening of
tourism, and of certain exchanges because it is the Cuban people who
will benefit from this. Unfortunately, the regime takes advantage of
this situation, but so does the average Cuban, those who have been able
to start a business derive benefit and thus are able to help their
families and other Cubans. And it is better than nothing, the problem is
that it is not enough.

The country will not change until there are real political changes.

After the execution of your father, have you talked with or run into any
of the children of Fidel or Raúl? If this were to happen, what would you
say to them?

No, never, no. I didn't know them. I never went anyplace where the
children of Fidel Castro might be. I did meet two of Raúl's daughters,
but they were not friends of mine, we ran into each other somewhere.
Mariela also studied psychology, so one time we coincided in some place.

How do you see Cuba's immediate future?

In the short run, as things are now, the growth of tourism and Cubans
surviving. This is what for now the government wants so as to not have
social conflicts with the people because of the difficult economic
situation.

At the political level, they are demonstrating that if they have to
repress people for taking to the streets, for writing certain things in
the blogs, they will do so. They will try to maintain control that way.
We will have to wait and see if they realize that a country cannot
develop without liberty.

Your family, like many others, is scattered around the world. Do you
think that you will ever reunite again in Cuba?

I don't know, the truth is that this is very difficult to answer. Seeing
how things are, knowing that Raúl Castro has placed his children and
relatives into the most important sectors of the country, taking control
of the country with a view towards the future. Truly, I cannot give you
a yes or no answer if I do not know what will happen. It would have to
be a situation that would allow the return to a place with certain
guarantees of justice and legality.

Would you delay, then, being able to give your uncle Patricio a hug?

For now, it will be delayed, if they don't make changes and accept that
one can go there having different opinions, which I have stated publicly
outside. I don't believe that I can go."

The Associated Press is returning its Caribbean base of operations to Cuba.

Cuba, the largest country in the Caribbean, housed the news service's
central offices for the region until 1961. The AP was forced to leave
after the botched Bay of Pigs invasion. It reopened a Cuba office in 1999.

The move comes as multiple major news stories play out on the island.
Cuba is still adjusting to slightly thawed relations with the United
States and still reeling from the death of Fidel Castro.
The AP announced the change Monday in a news story that also named
Michael Weissenstein the editor of the newly re-situated bureau.

"Mike is an excellent journalist and wordsmith who has shepherded our
coverage of Cuba through the island's 2014 rapprochement with the United
States to the death of Fidel Castro last month," the story quoted Paul
Haven, news director for Latin America and the Caribbean as saying. "I'm
thrilled that he will be expanding his reach to the rest of the Caribbean."

Trump Could Ice Thawing U.S. Relations with Cuba
By Marissa Piazzola Published December 27, 2016 Cuba FOX Business

The United States' relationship with Cuba has thawed over the last two
years, thanks in part to a December 2014 agreement between President
Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro to end a decades-long
period of policy isolation. In the years since, major corporations have
signed deals to do business with the Caribbean island and optimism about
the future of the former enemies has grown among citizens of the two
countries.

With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office on January 20,
though, many wonder whether the warming U.S.-Cuba relationship will
begin to again freeze.

"We believe [Trump] will reverse almost all the things that President
Obama did," said Horatio Ortiz, managing director of Classified
Worldwide Consulting, a frontier market intelligence and security firm.

Trump warned back in September at a Florida campaign event that U.S.
policies toward Cuba could change if he were elected President, calling
the agreement one-sided and benefitting the "Castro regime."

"All of the concessions that Barack Obama has granted the Castro Regime
were done through executive order, which means the next president can
reverse them – and that is what I will do, unless the Castro Regime
meets our demands. Those demands will include religious and political
freedom for the Cuban people," Trump said.

More recently, Trump again warned about potentially cutting ties with
Cuba on Twitter (TWTR) and in a formal statement following former Cuban
President Fidel Castro's death last month.

It's true that little has been achieved by the Obama administration in
the way of dismantling Cuba's single-party political system or improving
human rights. The Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National
Reconciliation Opens a New Window. (CCDHRN) has documented 9,484
political arrests in Cuba through the end of November 2016, up from
8,616 for all of 2015. What's more, the totalitarian reins may very well
tighten once Trump takes office.

"The hardline Communists in Cuba will use this Trump presidency as a new
call to arms against the imperialistic/capitalistic America," said Ross
Thompson, Ortiz's colleague and fellow managing director at Classified
Worldwide Consulting.

"They lost Fidel and that was a very big blow as far as their image…they
need to kind of drum up some fervor and we see the target of that being
anti-Trump kind of like it was pro-Fidel."

Industries That Stand to Lose

The tourism industry has been at the forefront of U.S. business in Cuba
following the 2014 agreement. Though Americans are still unable to visit
Cuba purely for tourism purposes due to a longstanding embargo, it's
much easier to get to the Caribbean island than it once was thanks to
multimillion-dollar agreements between major U.S. corporations and the
Cuban government.

Ten U.S. airlines regularly fly commercial flights to Cuba including
American (AAL), JetBlue (JBLU) and Southwest (LUV). Several cruise lines
including Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian (NCLH)
have also received approval to sail to Havana, while Starwood Hotels &
Resorts (HOT) signed a deal to manage three hotels in the Cuban capital.

Meanwhile telecommunications companies including AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ)
Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (PCS) reached agreements with the Cuban
government to offer roaming service to U.S. travelers.

Tech corporations, too, made headlines recently with their own
initiatives to enter the Cuban market. Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) signed
a deal with Cuba's state telecom company to install computer servers on
the island, thereby improving Internet service for the Cuban people.
General Electric (GE) is hoping to reach an agreement soon to be able to
sell power, aviation and medical equipment to the Cuban government.

In theory, U.S. investment in Cuba by all these names and others could
be rolled back under a President Trump, though experts note it would not
happen overnight.

"It's not like one fell swoop, it's something that requires this
collaborative process among U.S. agencies, but in theory the authority
is there. Just like President Obama had the authority to do this,
[Trump] has the authority to undo it," said Pedro A. Freyre,
international practice chair at law firm Akerman LLP.

Freyre, who was born in Havana but came to the U.S. with his family in
1960, says there are other industries in which the president-elect would
have a tougher time imposing any sort of regulations.

"What he could not undo is the framework for sales of agricultural and
pharmaceutical commodities because of a carve out from the embargo. It's
not regulation, it's law…those sales throughout the years have been in
the range of hundreds of millions of dollars, which is not an
insignificant amount in the context of Cuba," he said.

According to a 2015 U.S. Department of Agriculture report Opens a New
Window. , U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba totaled $300 million in
2014. With seven out of the top 10 agricultural states having voted for
Donald Trump, Freyre says their investment in Cuba will likely be
something the new administration takes into consideration.

Another factor to consider is how Cuban-Americans feel about expanding
relations with Cuba. According to a 2016 poll conducted by Florida
International University Opens a New Window. , 63% of Cuban-American
residents in Miami-Dade County, Florida oppose the continuing embargo.

"I think that there is a very broad consensus with Cuban-Americans that
we all want to see a free and prosperous Cuba…where people can speak
their minds and where people can have their own business and where Cuba
moves up," said Freyre, who believes it will be difficult for Trump to
achieve success with Cuba through harsh measures.

HAVANA (AP) — Alex Romero was delighted when President Barack Obama came
to Havana in March bearing the promise of a bright new future.

Like so many other Cubans, the 42-year-old state photography shop
employee was thrilled with the president's vision of restored ties
between the United States and Cuba. Families would reunite. A flood of
American business would lift the stagnant centrally planned economy,
fueling its slow path toward reform. Even as Obama spoke, an 80 percent
surge in U.S. visitors was drenching state-run and private businesses
with hundreds of millions of desperately needed dollars.

Nine months later, the world seen from Havana looks different.

President Raul Castro faces what could be his toughest year since he
took power in 2006. 2017 brings a possible economic recession and a U.S.
president-elect who promises to undo Obama's normalization unless the
Cuban government makes concessions on civil rights. Resistance to
pressure from Washington is a founding principle for the Cuban communist
system, making domestic concessions in exchange for continued detente a
virtual impossibility.

"People expected that after Obama came there would be changes in the
relationship between the U.S. and Cuba but that we could keep the best
of what we have, the benefits for the people," Romero said. "Trump's not
going to be able to get what he wants, another type of Cuba. If the
world's number one power takes us on, 2017 is going to be really bad for
us."

Castro must manage these twin economic and diplomatic challenges during
a year of transition. The 85-year-old general has promised to hand over
the office in early 2018 to a successor, widely expected to be Miguel
Diaz-Canel, a 56-year-old official with neither the Castro name nor
revolutionary credentials. The change will occur without Castro's older
brother Fidel, the revolutionary leader whose largely unseen presence
endowed the system he created with historical weight and credibility in
the eyes of many Cubans before he died last month at 90.

"Even if those two events hadn't taken place — Trump's victory and
Fidel's death — 2017 was going to be a very difficult year for Cuba,"
said Cuban economist Omar Everleny Perez, a visiting professor at Keio
University in Tokyo.

Cuba publishes few credible economic statistics, but experts expect the
country to end this year with gross domestic product growth of 1 percent
or less. It maintained a rate close to 3 percent from 2011 to 2015.

One bright spot is tourism, booming since Obama and Castro's Dec. 17,
2014, detente announcement set off a surge in overall visitor numbers,
up more than 15 percent in 2015 and again this year.

"I've never seen as many tourists as I have this year," said Magalys
Pupo, a street-corner pastry vendor in Old Havana. "They're everywhere
and they're the income that we need in this country."

The slowness of macroeconomic growth despite a surge of interest in
foreign investment and the greatest tourism boom in decades attests to
both long-term mismanagement of the Cuban economy and the depth of the
crisis in other sectors, particularly aid from Venezuelan in the form of
deeply subsidized oil.

Analysts believe that as Venezuela's Cuba-inspired socialist economy has
disintegrated, exports to Cuba has dropped from 115,000 barrels daily in
2008 to 90,000 in recent years to 40,000 a day over the past few months.

Venezuela was the prime destination alongside Brazil for Cuban doctors
and other professionals whose salaries go directly to the Cuban
government, providing another vital source of hard currency believed to
be slackening in recent years. Nickel, another of Cuba's main exports,
has seen a sharp price drop this year.

The revenue drop might be creating a vicious cycle for Cuba's state-run
industries. Experts said cutbacks in imported industrial inputs this
year will lead to lower productivity in Cuba's few domestic industries
in 2017 and make zero growth or recession highly likely.

"It's going to be a tough year," said Antenor Stevens, a 66-year-old
retired public water specialist. "We're a people who've suffered a lot.
We've felt a lot of need, but there's still a revolutionary consciousness."

Monday, December 26, 2016

Fernando Damaso, 25 December 2016 — Some official journalists, who seem
to be following orders from on high, have taken against the
self-employed and their prices, which they consider too high for the
ordinary citizen.

Of course no one has written a single line or even a word about the
prices in the state sector, which are much higher than those charged by
the self-employed.

It is no secret to anyone that the Ministry of Finances and Prices fixes
prices, two, three, four and many more times above the cost of the
products, usually of low quality, which are produced or imported and
sold in the network of State stores.

The case of Haier refrigerators, which are purchased at rock bottom
prices in China, due to their obsolete and discontinued technology, are
sold to Cubans at elevated prices (and in addition you can only get one
if you trade in a working refrigerator for which you are not given a
single cent), constitutes the palpable demonstration of a shameless scam.

The Haiers, without spare parts and without any ability to repair them,
break down and languish in houses whose inhabitants haven't even
finished paying for them.

DVD equipment, TVs, air conditioners, rice cookers, "Queen" pots,
electric cookers, exploding coffee pots and other poor quality articles
at high prices, are added to the long list of official robberies. The
same thing happens with dozens of plastic items, which the state buys at
ridiculous prices and sells as if they were made out of gold, silver or
porcelain.

With regards to these outrages, which affect and bleed the pockets of
ordinary Cubans, official journalists remain silent and complicit and,
if questioned, repeat that healthcare and education are free, something
completely false, because both services are paid for by every Cuban,
with what they don't receive for their labor in their miserable wages.

This reality is very difficult to hide. If anyone has any doubts, make a
tour of the hard currency stores and — why not? — also those that sell
in Cuban pesos, where a single screw costs three pesos, one brush
eighty, a gallon of emulsified paint 85 to 120, and enamel paint 280,
and so on.

Distinguished journalists, here are the abuses to the pockets of all
citizens and not just ordinary ones.

Somos+, Javier Cabrera, 24 December 2016 — I was an atypical Cuban child
because I always had Christmas. My mother, whom they tried to expel from
her teaching job once because Christians didn't have the morals to teach
classes to the "New Man," said that she wasn't going to let a man tell
her whether or not to celebrate Christmas or the Three Kings in her own
home.

In those Decembers, she took out the little tree from her childhood,
with what we called "the balls from before '59," and bought gifts with
whatever she could. I remember perfectly that the gifts were
increasingly fewer, and in the '90s moved from the floor to the little
table. Of course, the celebration was never interrupted, not even in
1994, a year to forget.

For me, the year started to come to an end when Christmas showed up in
our house. And I suffered many conflicts in kindergarten and elementary
school, because I couldn't understand that I lived in a country that was
so equal, and so different.

Today I look back and understand that the best Christmas gift I got was
this: "No one has the right to tell you to celebrate or not to
celebrate. Your freedom ends when you let one group of the 'enlightened'
impose their celebrations, wakes, or whatever they want."

Earlier this year, I landed a few hours apart in the same airport where
the Chapecoense team's plane crashed. I was going to work, and I was
warned that there was a huge local party. I heard some fireworks set off
in celebration, but not even 3% of what was normal. In general, without
imposition, or fines, or prohibitions, I saw a people in pain come
together to fill stadiums.

An image in complete contrast to the imposed mourning that same week in
Cuba, mourning that they are now trying to extend indefinitely,
annulling our freedom to celebrate, or choosing not to participate
without facing the loss of one's job, which in any event only pays a
pauper's wages.

Christmas is many things, but above all it is home, family and
celebration. Today it is no longer completely banned, and even so it is
scandalous that no one has asked an entire people for forgiveness for
forcing them to cancel it.

Today, Christmas day, I remember my mother a lot and thank her for not
allowing them to tell her what to do. I also remember friends who didn't
dare, and who didn't even hear about Christmas until they were older.

Today is a good day to tell the mother of all of us, Cuba, that we
celebrate and we celebrate with her. That she gives us once again the
ability not to listen to those who would bother a united family that
celebrates. To them, as a nation, she also gives the freedom to
celebrate their frustrations where no one interferes with them.

Pagan, A Very Bad Man With a Cuban Ministry of the Interior ID / Luis
Felipe Rojas

Luis Felipe Rojas, 20 December 2016 — Today I am going to tell you
something you absolutely are not going to believe. But I don't care, the
military dictatorship violates human rights in cold blood and many don't
even want to know. Great is the fool who defends them.

The brothers Geordanis and Adael Muñoz Guerrero are two activists of the
Patriotic Union of Cuba (UNPACU), an opposition organization located
mainly in Santiago de Cuba. The Muñoz brothers were convicted of
contravention: they didn't pay the 24,000 peso fines imposed on them
when they appeared with anti-Castro signs in their neighborhood
of Rancho Grande, Palma Soriano, where they live.

Geordanis's wife told me on the Radio Marti program Contacto
Cuba (Minute 12:43), what happened to them on 3 November, when they were
both in prison in Aguadores. An official from State Security named
Dainier Suarez Pagan came to them. He ordered Geordanis handcuffed
behind his back, took him down from Detachment 1, and he himself gave
him a hard beating.

Yenisei Jiménez told me herself, her voice breaking, because she became
furious telling about the abuse.

On 9 September 2015 these activists tried to go to the Shrine of the
Virgin of Charity of Cobre. On the way they were detained by the police,
civil officials and members of the Rapid Response Brigades — 'ordinary'
citizens who supposedly rise up spontaneously to repress their fellow
citizens — and they saw them in an unusual way.

Pagán, the bad man who beats women and men in Santiago de Cuba, took
charge of the humiliation. He undressed Geordanis and beat him with a
rubber cane and told him if he wanted he could put it on the social
networks. As this young regime opponent is not ashamed of being martyred
for the freedom of his homeland, he let a photo be taken of his bruised
buttocks and handed it over to Jose Daniel Ferrer (UNPACU's leader and
former prisoner of the Cause of 75 from the Black Spring of 2003) and he
posted it on his Twitter account.

The Muñoz Guerrero brothers were sentenced to prison in October for 6
months (Adael) and one year (Geordanis).

Geordanis Muñoz Guerrero leads the "Pedro Meurice Estiú" cell in Palma
Soriano and had twice gone to Argentina invited by the Center for the
Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL). He participated in
workshops on Human Rights and 'nonviolent' struggle, put on by the young
Serb Srdja Popovic, leader of the OTPOR movement.

There is more. Both brothers were fined again, but this time — you won't
believe it — inside the prison. They were fined 2,000 pesos because
Geordanis sent a note outside about the bad conditions suffered by
common inmates in the prison.

What will the hundreds of Cuban attorneys who know that a G2 official
violates all the protocols of Prison Control, Prison Security, Internal
Order, Reeducation and sees and mistreats his victims in cold blood do
about it?

When are Cuban lawyers, with their law degrees, going to get off the fence?

The henchman Dainier Suárez Pagán is a particularly bad man. He has
beaten dozens of opponents throughout the province of Santiago de Cuba.
The little that is known of him is that he has the rank of first
official (that is, Major or Lieutenant Colonel) and that he comes from
the town of San Luis.

Ferrer wrote to the Cuban bishops, hoping to hear, but he has had no
response. He did this on 11 September 2015 and started his letter in an
elegant way: "Respectable Pastors: (…)" but the prelates turned a blind eye.

Ferrer, who denounces every injustice that happens to his activists,
included this paragraph in the letter: "… In those hills (known as" La
Tanqueta"), political police agent Dainier Suárez Pagán, with his
subordinates, has beaten, injured and harassed more than a dozen
activists. They have been stripped and forced, with pistols placed
against the heads of these victims, to assume humiliating positions
while they threaten to rape them sexually. They have also brought the
flame of a match to their chin to force them to shout against their own
organization while filming them with a mobile phone."

Each bishop to his bishopric, all are silent. And the soldiers beat Cubans.