5/18/2008

Let's face it, anything but a comfortable Tory win should be unthinkable

The Tories keep playing down their chances of victory in Crewe and Nantwich, raising the labour majority of 7,000 in 2005 and trying to manage expectations. but let's be clear, if the Tories cannot win this comfortably they have problems.

For starters, if the Lib Dems had been in second place just 7,000 behind Labour would anyone bet against the Lib Dems ? Of course not. And let's face it, the Tories have a lot going in their favour at the moment.

Firstly, much of Labour's 7,000 majority in 2005 was a personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody who had been MP for the seat for decades.

Then you have to take in to account that Gordon Brown is the most unpopular Labour leader in polling history which when added to the Tory party having a 20% poll lead really does highlight that every single vital piece of the jigsaw is there for a Tory win.

If the Lib Dems could overturn 10-15,000 vote majorities in Tory seats from 1992-1997, the Tories have got to be able to do this now.

Personally I expect a good Tory majority of about 3,000.

Update : It's fascinating to read the comments from those who have accused me of being both Labour and Conservative. What a load of idiots !

If you are correct, it is the end of Labour as we know it, at last. In my part of Norfolk the labour party are hated, is the only way I can describe it. I have never known such strong feeling from the locals.

I understand you're a Lib Dem, aright. But perhaps being one has blinded you to the utter uselessness of both main parties at by-elections.

In fact it would be surprising if the Tories did win the by-election, especially considering their campaign force seems to be a bunch of Conservative Future tossers up from London in their brogues and Barbour (*just* as Labour start attacking "Tory toffs"). I imagine that doesn't go down well in the rougher parts of Crewe, and that the "one of us" line will win through.