Bill Tieleman is one of BC's best known communicators, political commentators and strategists.
Bill writes a politics column Tuesdays in 24 Hours newspaper and The Tyee online magazine.
Bill has been Communications Director in the B.C. Premier's Office and at the BC Federation of Labour.
Bill owns West Star Communications, a consulting firm providing strategy and communication services for labour, business, non-profits and government.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Will 2011 federal vote be Election of the Century with NDP bumping Liberals out of Official Opposition?

Could 2011 be the defining federal election of the century, with a dramatic political realignment as the New Democrats "orange surge" helps them replace the Liberals as Canada's Official Opposition?

Or will a national collapse under Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff simply lead to a majority Stephen Harper Conservative government?

And could the separatist Bloc Quebecois surprisingly become merely a minor and irrelevant irritant instead of Canada's third largest party?

Several stunning polls last week rocked the political world when they indicated NDP leader Jack Layton is outperforming both the Liberals nationally and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.

An Ipsos Reid national poll last week showed the NDP at 24 per cent in second place ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent, with the ruling Conservatives at 43 per cent -- in majority territory.

An Angus Reid poll had the NDP and Liberals tied for second at 25 per cent each, with the Conservatives at 36 per cent -- likely still to produce a minority government.

But the CROP poll that put the NDP in first place over the Bloc in Quebec is even more shocking -- and could have the biggest impact.

That result had the NDP at 36 per cent, Gilles Duceppe's Bloc at 31 per cent, the Conservatives at 17 per cent and the Liberals at just 13 per cent.

And an EKOS poll in Quebec backed that up, with the NDP at 31 per cent and the Bloc at 24 per cent, the Liberals at 21 per cent and the Tories at 17 per cent.

Layton's rise draws attacks

An NDP breakthrough in Quebec could still be minor -- with a handful of seats won and the re-election of deputy leader Thomas Mulcair in Outremont -- or it could be significant, allowing the party to take many more seats from the other three parties.

Layton and Mulcair underlined that possibility with a Montreal rally on the weekend attend by 2,000 supporters -- the biggest turnout in the party's history in Quebec.

For British Columbian voters the national trends mean the importance of their ballot just got huge -- and that the party choices have narrowed to two main contenders -- Conservative or NDP.

A B.C. poll by Angus Reid last week showed the Conservatives at 42 per cent, leading the NDP at 32 per cent, with the Liberals well back at 18 per cent and the Greens at just six per cent, likely ending Elizabeth May's chances of being that party's first elected MP in Saanich and the Islands.

Close seats in BC

Both the Conservatives and Liberals have launched new attack ads aimed solely at the NDP, indicating Layton's rise is no mirage.

What this and the national polls mean on the ground is clear -- the Liberals are going to lose seats in B.C., the NDP is going to gain seats and so may the Conservatives. That could spell the difference between a Tory minority or majority government.

The NDP are likely to take Surrey North from the Tories, where hapless MP Dona Cadman faced this headline in the local Surrey Now newspaper -- "Desperately Seeking Dona" -- detailing her ducking debates as she "remains invisible" in the riding.

NDP candidate Jasbir Sandhu hopes to regain the riding once held by the NDP's Penny Priddy and before that by the late Chuck Cadman, Dona's husband, who was elected as an independent after losing his Conservative nomination in 2004 despite serving seven years as an MP.

The Conservatives expect to win Vancouver South after narrowly missing knocking off Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh by 20 votes in 2008, with candidate Wai Young returning for a rematch.

The NDP also are putting major efforts into electing former B.C. Teachers' Federation president Jinny Sims in Newton-North Delta, a riding that has featured three-way battles between two-term Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal, the Conservatives, who finished second in 2008, and the NDP, who lost by just 1,000 votes in 2006.

Outside Metro Vancouver the NDP is pinning efforts on Ronna-Rae Leonard taking Vancouver Island North from Conservative John Duncan, who lost to the NDP in 2006. That's why Harper was in Campbell River this past Saturday in a defensive move to try holding the seat.

The NDP also hope to finally win Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca following the retirement of MP Keith Martin, who held it despite switching allegiance from the Conservatives to the Liberals three elections ago.

NDP candidate Randall Garrison faces off against Conservative Troy DeSouza, who was just 68 votes behind Martin in 2008. Garrison was a close second in 2006 but did not run in the following contest in a riding once held by NDP icon Dave Barrett.

History in the making?

With less than a week to go, what seemed like a lacklustre and unwanted election in March is now one of the most exciting in decades.

And while Ignatieff's Liberals and Duceppe's Bloc will do everything possible in a last desperate effort to block the "orange surge" and Harper's Conservatives hope that tide breaks just the right way for them to win a majority, it's clear that Jack Layton is in an unprecedentedly powerful spot to change Canada's political history.

15 comments:

Collin
said...

Jack Layton is giving people a viable alternative. In years past the NDP was seen as too extreme. Mr Layton has finally found a balanced platform that works for all Canadians. He'd be a fantastic official opposition leader.

This evening on the National, two different panels of experts indicate the surge is real, and possibly not yet peaked. They seemed to agree that the NDP gains would not necessarily mean a Conservative majority

Wow. Even Nanos is admitting the obvious (they poll for CTV/the Globe and Mail and are not one of my favs):http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-jumps-well-ahead-of-ignatieff-as-voters-get-off-the-political-couch/article2000297/

May this country be so lucky as to, have Jack Layton as P.M. He genuinely cares about Canada and the citizens. Harper does not.

Harper had a felon working for him. Conservatives are in contempt of the House. Conservatives, went to Guelph University to stop students from voting. They even tried to seize the ballot boxes. This feels like, a fascist, dictatorship, "Harper Government".

During WW11, our young Canadian boys were blown to bits, so this wouldn't happen in our country.

If Harper wins a majority. He will give Canada to, the giant corporations he works for. I read his speech about, his plan of Global Governance for Canada. We want to keep our country sovereign and free. Jack Layton, will never sell our country out as, Harper already is.

Forgive me if I approach this in a roundabout way. I was amused recently to see some syndicated columnist attack the provincial NDP for not embracing 'the Washington Consensus'(he didn't use those exact words, but that was certainly the upshot of it). He expressed contempt for the NDP because they weren't 'going along' with everyone else on this issue. Think about it. He was not appealing to the supposed inherent virtues of the Washington Consensus - he was explicitly stating we should go along with it because everyone else is. Apparently, we're sheep, not people. Why, if Hitler were resurrected tomorrow and somehow got popular, we should go along with him because everyone else is. This is simultaneously a contemptible argument and an argument expressing contempt for the readers of said column. Do these writers really think through the things they write? As I never tire of saying, if there are no fundamental policy differences between parties, what is the point of democracy? If you can vote for the party of your choice but all parties adhere to the same basic platform, you have a de facto dictatorship. Marxists once dismissed democracy as the talkshop of capitalism - it's amusing to see right-wingers try to twist this pejorative into a positive without really taking serious issue with it. To bring this back to the federal level, it's amusing to hear Conservatives drag out the same old arguments to try to discredit Layton. We see such old-time Conservative favourites such as appeals to fear outright and don't-open-the-oven-it'll-ruin-the-souffle sorts of arguments. Oh yeah, and vote for us 'cause we're already in power and we know what it's like, huh, huh, huh. In regards to the fear arguments, anyone familiar with Canadian history will remember the rampant fear-mongering that went on when Canada brought in Medicare - all the doctors will leave, it'll be the ruin of our medical system, etc. Historical note - it just didn't happen. The sky is not falling. You're just hearing the sounds of pigs getting their tails twisted. If you want something to fear, consider the fact that Stephen Harper once told a meeting of some Yank think tank that the NDP party was "Marxist"(his word, precisely). Oh, brother. Look, all Catholics are Christians, but not all Christians are Catholics. Follow? Similarly, all Marxists are socialists, but not all socialists are Marxists. See what I mean? Do you really want a prime minister who can't wrap his brain around this sort of thing? Newsflash - the McCarthy era is over, people. Calling people Communists just won't work anymore, especially when Marxism is as dead as a doornail...and especially when some people won't know what the hell you're talking about. The collapse of Marxism(which was opposed to capitalism) does not necessarily affirm the truth of its opposite. You don't have to major in philosophy to see the truth of that. Disregard fear-mongering by people who really are the ones who are scared. Vote as you want. WE ARE NOT SHEEP! Out...Greg Cameron

Bill Tieleman and Senator Larry Campbell, former Vancouver mayor

Jim Sinclair, Cindy Oliver, Ken Georgetti and Bill Tieleman

Bill Tieleman's coverage of the Basi-Virk/BC Legislature Raid Case praised by other journalists:

"This outstanding piece of journalism, in The Tyee, is the work of a journalist who has been deeply involved with this issue from the start and this article should be passed on as far and wide as possible."

"Bill Tieleman from 24 hours . . . . If you want to know about this trial and about this case, you have to read his blog – I mean, that’s just all there is to it – it’s required reading if you want to understand the BC Legislature Raid situation."

- Mike Smyth, columnist, The Province

"The Basi-Virk case....you’ve probably sat through more of these hearings and gone through more of the files and written about it than any other journalist in the province."

- Bill Good, host, The Bill Good Show, CKNW/Corus Radio Network

"Tieleman ...has done a first-rate job covering the trial."

- Paul Willcocks, columnist, the Victoria Times-Colonist

"Tieleman, who marries a considerable journalistic talent with one of the smartest political minds in the province, has been writing more web-exclusive material. And his coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is a must-read -- whether you're an insider or an outsider."

"24 Hours, the Vancouver paper that has been leading the coverage, as well as the hints of conspiracy in B.C."

- Norman Spector, columnist, Globe and Mail

"Although the major media in this circumstance has been giving the case significant coverage, Tieleman's reports on his blog have been outstanding.

The entire cut and thrust of legal wrangling and arguments has been covered and is accompanied by considered analysis.....His blog site coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is the most in depth treatment of one of British Columbia's biggest political scandals."

- Bill Bell, columnist, The North Shore News

"Mr. Tieleman has published online dispatches which, freed from the limitations of newsprint space or broadcast time, can run at length. They also remain available for those select readers who become obsessed with a case also known as Railgate.....

In another bizarre twist to a story with no shortage of them, Mr. Tieleman went to work one day in December only to discover his office had been ransacked. Bookcases had been tipped over and papers strewn, but nothing was missing.

To top it off, a press kit for the self-published novel The Raid, written by a retired military officer in Metchosin and featuring on its cover a photograph from the 2003 police raid, had been left in a conspicuous place."

- Tom Hawthorn, columnist, The Globe and Mail

Nobody has followed the Basi-Virk affair over its past five years with greater diligence than local journalist, Bill Tieleman....Tieleman deserves our thanks, a fistful of journalism awards and some merit citation for citizenship.