A protest placard reading "Brexit: Is It Worth It?" is seen below a Union flag during a demonstration on the first day after the Parliament Summer recess, on September 4, 2018 in London | Leon Neal/Getty Images

Second Brexit referendum too close to call: poll

A GQRR survey finds no clear majority for any of the suggested questions and only a paper-thin margin for Remain if another in-out referendum were called.

BIRMINGHAM, England — For the growing numbers of people in the U.K. calling for a second referendum to reverse Brexit, public opinion carries a warning: Careful what you wish for.

Once considered a remote prospect, support has increased for a second referendum over recent months, as opinion polls show a small but significant increase in pessimism surrounding the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union.

With Prime Minister Theresa May facing an uphill struggle to strike a Brexit deal that can win majority support in the U.K. parliament, campaigners want a second vote to be held if MPs reject whatever deal she strikes with Brussels. The opposition Labour Party has said it would support such an option if May doesn’t call an election first.

But uncertainty remains over the terms of any second referendum and the question that would be put to the public, as a new poll by the U.S. campaign strategy firm GQR Research shared with POLITICO shows the outcome remains too close to call.

Asked to choose between accepting whatever Brexit deal the prime minister is able to negotiate or remaining in the EU — the referendum question favored by the People’s Vote campaign — respondents backed Remain by just 40 percent to 39 percent, with the rest undecided, the poll suggests. Faced with a choice between May’s deal and no deal, those surveyed backed the prime minister by 35 percent to 33 percent, but with nearly a third undecided.

The paper-thin lead for Remain in an in-out referendum scenario, and the popularity of a no-deal outcome when it is an option on the ballot paper, is likely to give pause to pro-EU campaigners pushing for a second referendum.

The only referendum scenario where the public has a clear preference would be a vote on whether to accept May’s deal or send the government back to the Brussels negotiating table. In this scenario, voters prefer to give the prime minister more time to renegotiate by 48 percent to 22 percent, with the remainder unsure.

Notably, this is the referendum scenario backed by Labour Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and Unite General Secretary Len McCluskey, who both said at last week’s Labour conference in Liverpool that a second referendum should not reopen the question of the U.K.’s EU membership. They were contradicted by Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, who said “nobody is ruling out Remain” as an option in the event that Labour pushes for a second referendum. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn did not explicitly back either side, but insisted “all options are on the table.”

As split as ever

Whatever path the country takes in the event MPs reject May’s deal, all will be divisive, the GQRR poll suggests.

"In the event that it does come to a referendum campaign, Remain has the narrowest possible margin over leaving with a Theresa May-negotiated deal, which just goes to show that it would be another very tight campaign," said Peter McLeod, vice president of GQR Research.

"Three months before the 2016 referendum, our polling showed Remain had a slight lead, but Leave had the stronger arguments. In a repeat, Remain campaigners would have their work cut out to neutralize Leave’s arguments about immigration and sovereignty, which ultimately tipped the balance in 2016."

According to the survey of 1,477 adults, carried out between September 24 and 26, giving May more time to negotiate would have the support of 42 percent of voters, but would be opposed by 38 percent, with the remainder unsure. But May’s resignation would be equally contentious, with 38 percent approving such a course of action, 35 percent against, and the remainder unsure.

Likewise, a fresh general election — the outcome favored above all by the Labour Party — commands only 40 percent support, with 38 percent opposed, while the most popular format for a second referendum — an in-out vote — has 43 percent public support but is opposed by 40 percent.

“As with everything Brexit, the question of what to do if the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down is incredibly divisive," said McLeod. "You can see why Labour’s position is first to call for a general election, and a referendum otherwise: That’s the order of preference among their voters."

Respondents split along Leave-Remain lines on the question of a second referendum, especially over an in-out referendum, which has 71 percent support among Remainers but is opposed by 72 percent of Leavers.

However, on the fate of the prime minister, both the Leave and Remain camps are split internally. Forty percent of Leavers would approve of her resignation if her Brexit deal is rejected, as would 40 percent of Remainers. But another 43 percent of Remainers would approve of the prime minister being given more time to negotiate, as would 43 percent of Leave voters.

Overall, anti-Brexit sentiment has gradually risen since the same time last year, the poll shows. Then, 46 percent said they are hopeful about the prospects for Brexit, while 47 percent said they are worried. Now, 42 percent say they are hopeful and 53 percent express worry. Nevertheless, there remains (45 percent to 40 percent) support for the idea that the U.K. should leave the EU regardless of the deal of the table.

Little Fauntleroy

These polls are insane. BTW the 40% of remain voters “don’t know” should set alarm bells ringing in the minds of pollsters. Apparently didn’t. Great data you got there.

“No deal. If Britain and the EU cannot come to an agreement, or the agreement reached is rejected by Parliament or EU member states:

Food and other goods would be subject to tariffs and checks when moving between Britain and the EU, leading to big delays in the short term, much less overall trade with the EU and significant disruption to industries like farming and manufacturing that rely on significant
trade with the EU.

There would be new customs checks at the Irish border.

Imports of medicine and food from the EU could be delayed.

The government would need to make emergency deals with the EU and America to allow airline flights to continue.”

Push poll BTW. Thanks Politico. Don’t do that again.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 5:20 AM CET

Hrvoje Horvat

Eus liebarl fashis are calling ofr second referendum in Britain because they as all dictators do nor respect will of British citizens expressed on Brexit referendum. Same is with referendum in Macedoniataht is not valid because only 36,9% of voteres voted isntead required minim of 50% of all voters. But still EUs liberal fashihst hails this referendum as sucess. It is about time that we democratic EU citizens stop this liberal fashists.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 6:05 AM CET

Petter B.

@Little Fauntleroy

I don’t think the “don’t know” is as insane as you make it out to be. Rather, I guess it reflects the fact than no-one quite knows what a any of the proposed scenarios look like. Unless HMG or the other national governments want to punish their own population (something which is likely to get them out of office sooner rather than later), the “planes will be grounded”-type scenario well be be dealt with within days after 29th of March. The long term effects of no-deal are still uncertain. It will depend on a lot of factors, chiefly how the first “emergency deals” are done.

In such a scenario, it is an open question whether changing lead horse (May) in the middle of the race is adviceable. Normally, a country can be run effectively by the civil services for a while, but in times of crisis (which a no-deal scenario certainly will be) you’d need a hand on the rudder. People may dislike May, the Tories, the whole idea of abandoning the EU, but that has to be weighted against the desire for order. The “don’t know” or “uncertain” is entirely reasonable, the current situation considered.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 8:27 AM CET

Donal O'Brien

Att Comment

Dear Comment

First of all your Getty Image the 4th Sept?
Thats a bit slack on the 2st Oct?

Anyway @ by the way did you know the Gettys came Originaly from ———————–
IRELAND True
J P Getty some called him John others Jean his favourite Sport was BOXING liked a Round or Two himself

Anyway to Charlies Copy Hmmmm
There has been a REFERENDUM
Never mind what Keir Starmer says or Mc Donnell or Corby or ——–‘
Watson
Gina baby
Blair
Wmd Cambell
Patten
Major
Heseltine
Both Cleggs
Cable
Barrier
Drunker
Dusk aka Dust
Etc etc etc
Why OK
IF the Vote had been 51% REMAIN
@ 49% BREXIT
And those Brexit Voters asked for a Look back in Time a Replay in Other Words
After the REFEREE Had blown the Final Whistle

They would be told to
GO AND F–K YOURSELFS ye had your go and We the Winners abide by Democratic Rules which where AGREED by ALL before the EVENT
Again we repeat go Suck your Thumps

TRUTH

Cheers for Brexit
Allways
Donal O’Brien

Posted on 10/2/18 | 8:30 AM CET

Danbury Collins

The dictated “democracy” of Europe has no place in Britain. We will not have a system where the plebs are forced to vote as many times as is required to get them to succumb to the demands of their masters.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 8:36 AM CET

Craig Lamont

As I recall, prior too the first referendum, polls showed a SIGNIFICANT lead for the remain camp and we know how THAT turned out!! If I were a remainiac, I would be very concerned at this poll which flies in the face of their propaganda and claims that ‘people have changed their minds’!

Posted on 10/2/18 | 8:38 AM CET

Perry Winkle

A second referendum is unthinkable. It would deem any future referenda a joke and pointless. The PM is on course, holding the line and She Will Deliver. The UK will be all the better for Brexit.
Three cheers for Brexit!

Posted on 10/2/18 | 10:40 AM CET

T Y

Things have changed in peoples opinions over the last couple of years. Leavers are even more committed than ever (to the point of self destruction)….reluctant remains (I was one) whom did not buy into the europe ‘ever closer’ union plan, but did not want the tedious disruption of brexit, have been given the tedious disruption (so we have no reason left not to vote leave next time).

So the left vote has hardened (damn your polls leavers don’t shout they wait expectantly).

however one thing has not changed. UK Remainers scream and whine. but if you ask them the ‘what sort of europe’ they want question, none of them have a federal vision just a status quo……so why on earth would europe want UK remains, they want to remain but not let europe get its vision of a federal state. They are not pro EU vision they are just the same awkward uk folk who are too scared to try on their own.

When the queen signs the CETA deal into law on behalf of canada they just sit there confused.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 11:26 AM CET

Toby Jug

Rubbish

Posted on 10/2/18 | 11:48 AM CET

Barry Schitpeaz

What’s the media speculation on the 3rd and 4th referendums?

We are leaving, get on board.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 1:47 PM CET

Little Fauntleroy

Petter B – but the proposed scenarios are laid out in the poll and apparently 40% of remainers don’t know what they’d do between 3 options. Uhmm… Wat?

There are things fundamentally wrong with that data.

I still don’t get this whole well we didn’t get a deal lets go negotiate another one thing. If the EU doesn’t offer terms and the whole thing breaks down they’re not going to offer better terms just because Corbyn asked them nicely. Pure nonsense. Who on earth puts these polls together.

Posted on 10/2/18 | 3:17 PM CET

Andrew B

The EU’s conduct during the negotiations has turned many Remainers into Leavers. You can see in the data that a WTO Brexit (so called no deal) is very popular amongst both Leavers and Conservative voters and of course its the Conservatives who are in Government