Sunday, March 1, 2009

Who Is the Real Dr. Doom . . . And What Is He Forecasting?

Who Is the Real Dr. Doom . . . And What Is He Forecasting? George Washington’s BlogSaturday, Feb 28, 2009Big media loves to label whoever they think is most pessimistic about the economy “Dr. Doom”.Over the last couple of years, Nouriel Rouini, Marc Faber and Peter Schiff have all been labeled “Dr. Doom”.But who is the real Dr. Doom?Well, the title goes to whoever is most negative in their long-term outlook for the economy.RoubiniRoubini called the economic crisis along time ago. And he thinks it will get worse.Roubini is also saying there could be unrest and some violence over food shortages.But he also believes that - with enough government intervention - the economy will turn around within a year or 2.In addition, he has never specifically said that the unrest could spread to the developed world.Because Roubini is optimistic about the odds of a government-induced recovery, he is not the real Dr. Doom.SchiffSchiff also called the economic crisis along time ago. He’s been right about a lot of things. And he frequently says that the worsening financial crisis in the U.S. could lead to martial law.But for years, Schiff’s theory has been that the U.S. would tank, but that - after a brief period of linkage where they would be dragged down with America - Asia and Europe would “decouple” and soar to new heights of prosperity. Indeed, the trademarked motto of Schiff’s company, Europacific Capital, is “Because there’s a bull market somewhere.”So far it appears that Schiff has been overly optimistic about the ability of Europe and Asia to recover. Those countries are not decoupling from America. Indeed, Europe may be even worse off than the U.S. See this and this.So he’s not the real Dr. Doom.FaberFaber also called this crisis, as well as the 1987 stock market crash. He is coninced that the U.S. will go bankrupt.And Faber has recently said that Asia and Europe are wrecks economically.Faber has also warned that this could be far worse than the Great Depression, and that recovery might not occur for up to 15 years.Faber has repeatedly warned about a crash-induced loss of democracy and the institution of “either facism or socialism”.The above is pretty gloomy, and so Faber is a real Dr. Doom.However, he’s not all doom and gloom. Being a follower of wave theory, Faber still thinks traders can make money doing short-term trades within the near-term future.Calente and SchoonTop trend researcher Gerald Calente and writer Darryl Schoon are the gloomiest forecasters of all.Calente called the economic crash at least a year before it happened. He is now forecasting tax revolts, crime and revolution for America. He thinks the U.S. is done-for, and the rich and powerful are simply trying to secure their own lifeboats.Schoon forecast several years ago the complete breakdown of all paper-based currencies, as well as all paper-based assets and investments and - indeed - the end of modern civilization (at least for a while).So Calente and Schoon are real Dr. Doom’s as well.Note 1: Calente and Schoon recommend gold as the only safe investment. Faber and Schiff are also bullish on gold. So does John Williams - who thinks we’re going into a hyperinflationary depression, and thinks that people should stock up on booze and gold to barter with.On the other hand, well-known Elliot Wave market timer Robert Prechter - who has long predicted the crash - is forecasting that gold will go significantly lower.Note 2: Many big names now think this could be worse than the Great Depression. However, I am only mentioning people who predicted the financial crisis well in advance and were roundly ridiculed for their prescience.Honorary mention goes to Buckminister Fuller. I just read the forward to a book Fuller wrote in 1983. He not only predicted a break down of our “modern” economy, but said that humanity might go extinct if we don’t get our act together and start behaving wisely. But that’s for another blog . . .I apologize for failing to mention the other visionaries who called the crisis in advance. There are quite a few. For the sake of brevity, I have not included all of them.