The new trailer for Detective Pikachu just dropped. Could this film breakout in Japan given it's the first live-action Pokemon film and has appeal beyond the young children/families demographic?

Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:27 pm

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (11/10-11)

Jiffy wrote:

Corpse, what sort of numbers are you expecting for ASIB next month?

It should do quite well. It has the good box office numbers in the U.S., strong reviews internationally, recognizable stars in Gaga and Cooper, and a great release date -- a date that makes it one of just a few non-animated films that's releasing ahead of New Year this year.

¥2 billion (~$20 million) should be very doable, and I could see it do ¥3-4 billion (~$30-40 million).

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:51 pm

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (11/10-11)

R136a1 wrote:

The new trailer for Detective Pikachu just dropped. Could this film breakout in Japan given it's the first live-action Pokemon film and has appeal beyond the young children/families demographic?

I really don't know. My initial thoughts are that it's unlikely to become a big success. It doesn't have a film page on any major Japanese movie site yet, nor does it have a release date (not even a release frame). Nintendo/The Pokemon Company (involved with this film) won't let Warner Bros. release it in the Summer since a new Pokemon film opens every July, so we'll be looking at a September release at the earliest in Japan, but September-November is generally a weak time for the box-office. Unless... there's a surprise announcement in CoroCoro later this year saying it'll be released in Japan first (say in April). That'd be a short time to market the film, but it's not uncommon for films to be announced in Japan less than 6 months before the release date.

I also don't know who this film will be appealing to in Japan, exactly. In the U.S., it will easily benefit from nostalgia, but in Japan that won't be the case. I don't really see young children, Pokemon's overwhelming audience in Japan, being any more interested in this than they are watching the newest weekly episode in the morning or going to see the new movie every July. The live-action and night/dark-setting this film seems to occur in could be a turn-off for them as well. So, will it appeal to teens/adults? Maybe? We'll just have to wait and see.

Pikachu actually talking will probably come across as bizarre and "Western", too, especially since Pikachu has an adult voice. I could see there being a theatrical version that alters this somehow, beyond just dubbing it. I know Pikachu talking is a major selling point of the film, as it was with the video game, but the Detective Pikachu video game didn't do well in Japan, especially compared to the main series; and its sales were way below the many Pokemon spin-off titles, too.

Japanese audiences can also be very, very critical and dismissive of Hollywood adapting domestic material, and the vast majority of Hollywood films based on Japanese properties bomb. Nintendo and The Pokemon Company are involved, though, so that should at least help any immediate displeasure.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

>Bohemian Rhapsody debuted atop the box office, delivering quite the impressive start, selling 245,258 admissions over the weekend frame across 469 screens; and 338,299 admissions since Friday. It became Fox's second biggest debut of the year, opening just 9% below The Greatest Showman. I don't believe the Queen biopic will come anywhere near the legs of The Greatest Showman, but it'll likely develop strong legs given the genre, so I'd expect a total between ¥2.5-3 billion ($25-30 million) for now.

>Venom held quite well in its sophomore frame, and managed one of the stronger second weekend holds for a Marvel/DC film which tend to drop around 40% or more. I have it finishing just shy of ¥2.5 billion ($20-25 million). It'll become the 14th Marvel/DC film to exceed ¥2 billion milestone, but only the 4th to do so that doesn't include Spider-Man or the Avengers.

>Stolen Identity really impressed in its second weekend, declining just 17%. It's very likely to exceed the ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) mark now, and while pretty difficult, could also approach the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone. This is a much welcomed showing so far for Toho after their usual weak performances throughout September and October.

>You, I Love settles for fourth place, but certainly delivered for Asmik Ace with a solid debut, selling 142,930 admissions over the weekend across 217 screens; and 181,849. This opening should get it above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone.

>Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer concluded its 30-week run following its three week 4D expansion.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Last edited by Corpse on Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:09 pm

R136a1

Speed Racer

Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:01 pmPosts: 194

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (11/10-11)

Corpse wrote:

One thing I do know is: This film will be way overpredicted in Japan.

Thanks for the analysis, and your last point is very true. I'm already seeing people on other box office sites saying $150 million is locked in Japan with a chance to go as high as Frozen.

I think some people are assuming the massive success of the Pokemon franchise (especially with the recent phenomenon in Pokemon Go) will automatically translate into box office results.

Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:18 pm

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/1

Massive hits in Japan are rarely expected. Most of the biggest films in the market become surprise uber-blockbusters or phenomena.

The fact that it has no release date yet, and has literally no presence on Japan's movie websites (it has no film page and is unsearchable) is worrisome. I don't get the feeling that this film was made necessarily with Japanese audiences in mind. And again, unless there's a surprise announcement in next month's CoroCoro magazine saying the film will be released in Japan before anywhere else (a good strategy), we're probably looking at a release in the market next Fall/Winter.

And I believe that many are going to incorrectly presume that because it's Pokemon, and the first live-action film in the franchise, that it'll be a phenomenon in its country of origin. That's... not usually the case, though, and there are many examples:

>The Hollywood Godzilla films did okay at the box office in Japan, but they were far from major hits and don't come anywhere near the biggest films in the franchise. Shin Godzilla (2016) grossed more than the 1998 Godzilla and 2014 Godzilla films combined, for example.

>Pacific Rim was a borderline bomb but was presumed before release to become a huge success in Japan. Why? Because the Japanese love mechs and giant monsters of course! The same can be said about most other Hollywood films that feature giant robots -- they only deliver solid results at best.

>Dragonball: Evolution was an epic bomb..

>Ghost in the Shell bombed.

>The MANY Hollywood versions of Japanese horror films have mostly disappointed -- the horror genre itself isn't big in the market, though, so expectations are hard to gauge here.

Japanese audiences just have little or no interest in Hollywood adaptations or remakes of their properties, so Detective Pikachu will have to overcome this stigma.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Last edited by Corpse on Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:27 am

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Remaining 2018 Release Schedule

I didn't have enough time to post the Weekend Forecast this week, but I'll have Weekend Estimates up later today.

Of note... Bohemian Rhapsody appears likely to enjoy a second weekend increase, probably around 5%, despite this weekend not having any benefit such as a holiday. Everything else behaved normally over the weekend.

I'm not shockingly surprised or anything by the second weekend increase -- the film is receiving glowing audience reviews in Japan, and musical-related films often develop strong legs in the market -- but it's very impressive nonetheless. It's likely going to go on to exceed the ¥3 billion ($25-30 million+) milestone, and may even go beyond the usual great legs and reach ¥4 billion ($35-40 million+) based on its performance so far.

It's a different type of film, but it reminds me of Michael Jackson's This Is It, which opened very well and later developed excellent legs. Japan was its biggest market by a considerable margin, more than tripling its gross in the U.K. and was less than 20% behind its total in the U.S.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

>Bohemian Rhapsody easily claim its second weekend atop the box office, and delivered an incredible double-digit increase in the process. I had little doubt the film would perform well and develop great legs, but it seems clear it's going to go beyond just having a great run. It'll likely be several weeks before we get a clearer picture of where it may be heading, but I believe we can expect a gross of at least ¥4 billion ($35 million+) and wouldn't be surprised if I up that as soon as next week. Its audience reception is pretty incredible (averaging 4.5+/5 on most sites).

>Venom continues to hold better than the average Marvel/DC film and has assured itself a gross north of ¥2 billion, and it may be able to climb closer to ¥2.5 billion (~$22/23 million). Definitely a good performance in the market.

>Stolen Identity is proving to be a nice surprise with its holds as well, and will have no problem exceeding ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million) and probably finish around ¥1.75 billion (~$16 million). Toho doesn't have a strong slate of films this Fall/Winter, so any overperformance, even if its minor, will certainly be welcomed for them (and the box office).

>The House Where the Mermaid Sleeps settles for fourth place, selling a decent 112,933 admissions over the weekend frame across 325 screens; and 152,206 admissions since Friday.

>Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Stars Memories has been quite frontloaded as expected, but thanks to its record franchise opening weekend, it's now edging closer and closer to the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone and may exceed the mark next weekend. This isn't anything remarkable on its own, but it will be the first film in a few years to reach the milestone.

>BTS - Burn the Stage: The Movie hasn't had any figures released yet, so its gross is currently an estimate based on its weekend admissions ranking; will be updated when the actual is released in a few days.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:48 pm

bullza

Angels & Demons

Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:20 amPosts: 275

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/1

Hello again, the new DBZ movie is out in a few weeks so I plan to keep an eye on that like an eagle as I did before.

I just wanted to clarify a few things because it's already been three and a half years since the last one. Last time I was told about this site.

And in the top right it tells you the movies and a number. Last time around I was told that the number represents ticket sales from an estimate of 43% of theatres in Japan.

I was also told what the average ticket price was too so from that if the number in the corner said 100,000 then I could work out what the overall ticket sales was and get an estimate of the daily gross.

I was wondering if this was still the same. Is it still the same 43%? Is it worth asking what the average ticket price is now? Or will it change over the next three weeks?

I was going to comment how Ralph Breaks the Internet and A Star is Born's theater counts seem too low until I noticed your note about it being preliminary and subject to change. I'm guessing the final count should be closer to 350? Especially for a major WDAS release.

Thu Nov 22, 2018 11:48 am

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/1

bullza wrote:

I was wondering if this was still the same. Is it still the same 43%? Is it worth asking what the average ticket price is now? Or will it change over the next three weeks?

The usual locations represent between 65-70% of the overall market now.

The average ticket price in Japan is a little above ¥1,300. You cannot, however, apply that number to too many films. Japan has so many different prices for tickets depending on who you are (e.g. a woman, a student, a child, a senior, a couple, etc.) or what time of day you're seeing a film (early morning and late-night showings are usually cheaper), that one film could have just a ¥1,050 average versus one that has a ¥1,550 average (as much as a 30-35% difference).

It's all about the demographic that a film is targeting in the Japan that determines that films' average ticket price.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:57 am

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Remaining 2018 Release Schedule

R136a1 wrote:

I was going to comment how Ralph Breaks the Internet and A Star is Born's theater counts seem too low until I noticed your note about it being preliminary and subject to change. I'm guessing the final count should be closer to 350? Especially for a major WDAS release.

Ralph Breaks the Internet should be close to or a bit over 350. I don't think A Star is Born will be quite that high, but 300+ is likely.

Premium format releases (3D, IMAX, etc.), like Ralph, don't typically have their full theater list available until a couple weeks before release since other premium format films already in release can affect the counts.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:02 am

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/1

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald got off to a pretty explosive start on Friday, likely earning over ¥650 million (~$6 million). This would normally be an indicator of a major opening weekend ahead, but Friday was a national holiday and it could have burned off a good amount of demand already. Regardless, the first day, despite the holiday boost, is excellent, and probably means the film will deliver a similar performance as the original -- which, if anyone remembers, managed to outgross the lowest grossing Harry Potter film, Deathly Hallows - Part 1.

This may be the only market that having Johnny Depp in the role will prove beneficial, given his star power here.

It's also worth noting that The Crimes of Grindelwald is the widest release ever in Japan in terms of seating/showtimes, and might have broken the theater count record, too. It's averaging 13 showtimes per location on an average screen seating 286.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald isn't showing any early signs of declining from its predecessor, and appears set to debut on par with it. I checked how well Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened on November 23rd of 2016, the same day that Crimes of Grindelwald opened (the date is a national holiday in Japan), and Grindelwald opened just 0.9% behind it in estimated admissions.

A comparable opening with the original film, or maybe even a slightly higher start, would be quite impressive given the lackluster reviews (audience scores in Japan are solid though), but the Harry Potter fanbase is truly one of dedication in the market (once it stabilized near the end of the series). A similar debut won't necessarily mean a similar total, though, as some of the middle Harry Potter films (3-5) managed to match/surpass the debuts of the first two films, yet earned much, much less, so time will tell where it may finish.

And I'll mention again that Johnny Depp in the starring villains' role is likely helping it a bit, although he didn't appear with the cast in Tokyo yesterday; surprising given his appearances are notable in the market.

>Bohemian Rhapsody is quickly becoming a phenomenon at the rate it's going, as it looks to achieve another weekend increase. Its weekdays have been phenomenal as well, being up day-to-day each day. It's becoming increasingly likely that this biopic may be headed for a ¥5 billion+ ($45 million+) total, or more.

And finally, almost anything could occupy the ninth and tenth spots this weekend. My selections are just based on pre-sales going into the weekend, but they're so low, that many other films could make an appearance.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:56 pm

bullza

Angels & Demons

Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:20 amPosts: 275

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/1

Corpse wrote:

The usual locations represent between 65-70% of the overall market now.

The average ticket price in Japan is a little above ¥1,300. You cannot, however, apply that number to too many films. Japan has so many different prices for tickets depending on who you are (e.g. a woman, a student, a child, a senior, a couple, etc.) or what time of day you're seeing a film (early morning and late-night showings are usually cheaper), that one film could have just a ¥1,050 average versus one that has a ¥1,550 average (as much as a 30-35% difference).

It's all about the demographic that a film is targeting in the Japan that determines that films' average ticket price.

Well for something like Dragon Ball that would be more geared towards younger audiences I suppose that would give a lower average right?

I suppose I'll have to wait to see what the opening weekend gross is and the ticket sales before I can get a reasonable average ticket price then.

Edit: In fact going by last time I can see that you put Resurrection F as having a opening of ¥960 million from 715,000 tickets which would at least during that point give an average of ¥1,340 per ticket which fits with what you said.

Think that figure would make an accurate enough average for the upcoming movie?

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