May 2019 Market Summary – brighter outlook on very low stock levels

Its 6.00 pm and today we covered 36 auctions to finish the May 100 Auction $M+ 3 week auction Test (May 18, 25 and June 1).

Three simple things have come out of the coverage.

One: Everybody expected bad – that’s why there were so few auctions. Compared to previous years this May has been 30-50% off in turnover.

Two: But we didn’t get bad – in fact we got surprised. The results were not great, but they were nowhere near as dire as those of us in the market anticipated.

Three: So what does this mean, what can we say about this current market in May?

Nothing of substance really, as the stock levels are so low that we didn’t have enough contests to make a judgement on – so few homes for sale meant that a certain number of homes had to sell, lest Melbourne’s homeless increase at an even greater rate.

Yes, we know a result here and another one there (Bramley over 7 (Hamish and Desiree), Black over 12 (Stefan Whiting) and Cosham over 8 (Barb Gregory)), will be thrown up as proof of a market improvement AND don’t get us wrong, statistically May was better than expected AND the news with regards to the election, banks, APRA, interest rates and so on have been seen in the large part as all positive for property – BUT we are at such lows in the dam, that one shower doesn’t turn around the drought or put another way – we are so cold in terms of activity, that all we may have done is move to another level, of slightly less freezing.

BUT having said all that, we see May as positive, we would just like to see August and September as the same AND with higher stock levels before we move the 2nd hand Volvos out of the garages, to make way for the shiny new Maseratis.

Yes, 2019 May was a better feel than 2018 May and a better feel than 2019 March /April.

So another 100 Auction test is over and we are knee deep in the stats of the market.

I love stats, just like I love The Beatt’s Organic Salad; no quinoa, add chicken breast, please.

I love math and I love logic that gives me certainty! I know lots of stuff.

I also know the election result – now, although I thought I knew it a fortnight ago. I knew the Libs were out and I was certain that the Libs needed a better leader in order to get their act together. But Scomo’s a better leader than I thought – he got in. So now I know what I thought to be certain was actually not, does it really affect my life anyway?

You know the market. I know the market. Don’t we?

The more certain we are about the market, the better it is for us?

Isn’t it?

People act on certainty but are they right?

Lots of us bought in 2017 as we were certain prices were going up ……. but they didn’t go up.

People don’t act on uncertainty but are they necessarily wrong. In 2019 we all thought prices might go down, but we didn’t know, we were uncertain and ……. we were right. But were we right if we didn’t buy? Of course Mal, you idiot – we didn’t buy because we know prices are falling even further.

Oooh phew, some certainty?

There were far more buyers in 2017 when we were certain prices were going up and we were wrong – than there are in 2019 when we are all uncertain about prices falling and we are right.

It does feel that many of us want certainty rather than truth.

Buyers seem to think it’s better to buy on a certain but wrong assumption than to buy on an uncertain but right one.

Prices have dropped 10 – 15% since we last felt certainty in 2017, yet we feel more uncertain about buying and fewer are.

If you as a buyer decide to act on market uncertainty, then Melbourne homebuying, immigration, population history seems to be pretty certain you may be right.

New clients starting with us in the last fortnight – not a stat, a fact.

Sample of over 100 emails/mail drops that have gone out to agents looking for homes this week.

Only showing off a bit, more trying to communicate we feel people are coming back into the market – but it’s early days.

If you have an off-market please let your preferred selling agent know or contact us direct. Gina on 0457 835 255.

Next Early August – but Market in a Minute Updates regularly throughout Winter

Next Market in a Minute – Off-Market Top End and there have been a few deals

Buyer Testimonial

The value of James was the patience and knowing in negotiation that I don't think other advocates would have, it helped us to secure a favourable price in an ever changing market.. The property we were interested in was passed in at auction, James stepped in, and the first thing they did was make sure we were really interested in acquiring the property, not from just an emotional point of view, but that it would really suit ...