Why we know we’re right: Oregon has better players. Stanford has better mojo. Utah and Arizona State have more to play for. There’s just no way the Trojans—compromised by the seeping disease of bowl ineligibility—should be looked at one of the favorites to win the newly realigned Pac-12. But their talent level demands a winning record, and most likely an improvement from 2010, and from there it’s a matter of what’s acceptable for a program that still has a multitude of advantages. A 3-0 start is likely. A 7-0 start is possible—but not likely.

Why we might be wrong: Quarterback Matt Barkley is an A-plus talent and could be so influential that the Trojans take one of the biggest leaps of any offense in the country. Of course, that still leaves the defense—which was terrible in 2010. But the front seven—especially if someone like Wes Horton explodes into a star—might make its own big comeback, and the Trojans are especially talented in the middle of the secondary. And don’t discount the heavy hand of new athletic director Pat Haden, who has all involved feeling the need to re-establish the USC brand.

Our confidence level in this pick: You could dangle us over the La Brea Tar Pits and we’d hold fast to the prediction that USC won’t win the Pac-12 championship. We aren’t nearly as confident that they’ll finish behind Utah and Arizona State in the South division.

Judgment day: Oct. 22 at Notre Dame. Imagine the sense of turnaround that’ll take hold if the Trojans go into South Bend and regain control of what still is one of college football’s sexiest rivalries. It’ll be a brutal reality check if Notre Dame wins again.

Coach’s job security: We’re talking about Lane Kiffin, right? If USC loses five games again, Kiffin’s seat will be blistering-hot. Remember, Haden didn’t hire him and has plenty of old pals from the Trojans’ glory days of the 1970s.