To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors
in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted
to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished
by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration
of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability,
(2) constructing a function linking site index to climate and
using it to modify growth rates, and (3) adding functions accounting
for changing growth rates due to climate-induced genetic responses.
For three climatically diverse landscapes, simulations were used
to explore the change in species composition and tree growth
that should accompany climate change during the 21st century.
The simulations illustrated the changes in forest composition
that could accompany climate change. Projections were the most
sensitive to mortality, as the loss of trees of a dominant species
heavily influenced stand dynamics. While additional work is needed
on fundamental plant-climate relationships, this work incorporates
climatic effects into FVS to produce a new model called Climate-FVS.
This model provides for managers a tool that allows climate change
impacts to be incorporated in forest plans.