Neil Patrick Harris, the far-and-away favorite to win Best Actor in a musical at this weekend’s Tony Awards, surprisingly split the vote in a tie with Jefferson Mays at the Drama Desk awards on Sunday. Mr. Mays, who stars in “A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder” plays all eight members of a withered, aristocratic family in the original musical, and won raves from critics. But many say he can’t win the coveted Tony in a year when Mr. Harris is in the competition.

Tony voters and theater insiders say Mr. Harris can’t lose the award – in part because of his stellar performance as a transgender, two-bit, rock-and-roll singer in “Hedwig and the Angry Inch” — and in part because the four-time Tony host is too beloved in the community.

“There is certainly a belief or expectation that because Neil Patrick Harris has the profile he has, that there’s a certain inevitability to it,” says Joey Parnes, the producer of “Gentleman’s Guide.” “But Jefferson is terrific in the role he plays, and is worthy of winning the award.”

The Drama Desk consists of theater writers and editors and critics. The 120 or so members vote on categories that include Broadway, Off Broadway, and Off-Off Broadway within the same contest. There is very little crossover between the 800 Tony voters and the Drama Desk. There are rarely ties at the Tony awards (there have only been ten, ever), and the Drama Desk awards are not generally considered a bell weather for the Tonys. Voting on the Tonys closes on Friday, and a large percentage of ballots have not been cast, insiders say.

One Drama Desk voter, Samuel Leitner, picked Mr. Mays because “he had the most challenging role and because of what he had to accomplish to perform that role.” He said he wasn’t swayed at all by Mr. Harris’s celebrity, and said that few would be. “It’s simply a straightforward vote.”

Isa Goldberg, the president of the Drama Desk, said the voters tend to lean more towards nuance when casting their ballots.

The Tonys are more commercial, and are considered to be more political, than the Drama Desk awards. They are telecast live on CBS from Radio City Music Hall to about 6 million viewers. As host, Mr. Harris, who was the star of CBS’s “How I Met Your Mother” until it ended this year, has been a boon for ratings as one of the most recognizable and beloved American television actors.

Many Tony voters have a vested interest in the success of the shows they are voting on, especially the “road” voters, who are theater owners and operators around the country who will book Broadway shows when they go on tour. A block of Tony voters are also producers who can vote on their own shows. Insiders say the Best Actor categories aren’t as political as, say, Best Musical, the winner of which will often tour as a result of a win.

“The Tony Awards need to embrace the country,” said Ms. Goldberg, “and [Mr. Harris] is the only one that can do it. And the Tonys have to thank the man that emceed the show in the past. And it unbelievable what he does up there. He’s an amazing actor.”

“People love both actors,” says theater producer and Tony voter Daryl Roth. “Jefferson is a wonderful theater actor and has the respect of everyone in the community, and people love Neil because he’s Neil, and he’s amazing in the show.”

Still, the tie Sunday night indicates that “A Gentleman’s Guide” is building a swell of support in the home stretch. It won seven awards at Sunday night’s ceremony, including Best Musical, Best Book, and Best Director. The show is among the best reviewed of the year, and is in the running for Best Musical on Tony night as well. Mr. Mays may be at a disadvantage because his co-star, Bryce Pinkham, is also up for Best Actor, which could split his vote. Mr. Mays won the Tony for a similar split-personality role, when he played 40-plus characters in the 2003 tour de force “I am My Own Wife.”

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