GFS has been showing this system growing to Cat 4-5 and then blowing north as an extratropical cyclone, right up the Bering Strait and into the Arctic.

We watched the last hurricane of the season, Oscar, turned out to sea in the Atlantic and then straight into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone. Oscar entered the Arctic around November 1, and within days the stratospheric polar vortex began to ping pong around, a displacement which culminated in the polar vortex split and wild winter weather we are still experiencing.

It's a similar set up. A calm, organized polar vortex at the north pole. Incoming tropical storm.

Is it too much to anticipate, two major polar vortex disruptions in one winter?

Standard disclaimers: GFS long range, ECMWF forecasts it much weaker, although it strengthened in the last run.

... President Filipe Nyusi told Mozambican radio he had seen “many bodies” floating in the overflowing Pungwe and Busi rivers. “It appears that we can register more than 1,000 deaths,” he said, adding that more than 100,000 people were at risk because of severe flooding.

... “The situation is terrible. The scale of devastation is enormous. It seems that 90 per cent of the area is completely destroyed,” said Jamie LeSueur of the Red Cross. “We are also hearing that the situation outside the city could be even worse. Yesterday, a large dam burst and cut off the last road to the city.”

... The cyclone will have far-reaching consequences beyond the flooding. Farmers in the region were about to harvest their maize crop when Idai hit, and many of their fields have been ruined, meaning widespread hunger in at least the year ahead.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Aid agencies are scrambling to reach survivors of Cyclone Idai in Mozambique as the full scale of the disaster becomes clear.

Charities say thousands of people are stranded by catastrophic flooding, clinging to roofs or stuck in trees.

In the port city of Beira aid workers say they have only two to three days of clean water left.

Mozambique President Felipe Nyusi has said more than 100,000 people are at risk.

... "We are running out of time. People have been waiting for rescue for more than three days now. We can't pick up all the people so our priority are children, pregnant women, injured people."

... Rescue workers, military personnel and volunteers are rushing to save thousands of Mozambicans before flood levels rise further, but with four helicopters, a handful of boats and extremely difficult conditions, have only been able to save about 413 so far.

... Trower described the difficulty of rescuing people, most of whom cannot swim, with boats, using 20-metre lines from helicopters or swimming to them in the trees. Saturday night was the most difficult because of strong currents, he said.

“Mothers were throwing their babies out from the trees to us into our boats and we were then paddling them to shore,” he said. “The water was flowing extremely fast underneath and we couldn’t get into the really strong current or we would have been washed away ourselves.”

... There is a limited window in which survivors will be able to stay alive, given that most have no access to food and clean water.

With heavy rains still falling in the region, floodwaters are predicted to rise in the coming days, meaning more people will need to be rescued; Mozambique’s president, Filipe Nyusi, warned there could be waves up to eight metres high.

Emergency teams are shifting their focus from rescue to delivering aid and evacuating Buzi, a town of 200,000 people that is expected to be partially submerged in the coming surge.

Copernicus Sentinal#1

... “I have never seen water rise so fast,” he said. “We were about 80km from Vilanculos where we came across this village. Everyone was in the trees and the women were throwing their babies to us. When we went back the next day, only the treetops were visible. The whole village had gone.

“There is huge urgency now to get to people. Given the size of the lake we are seeing on the satellite images we need to ask where are the people who live there.”

Port Hedland could be in the eye of Cyclone Veronica for up to eight hours, authorities warn

Quote

The system is also expected to create dangerous storm surges that are likely to cause significant flooding and could see parts of Port Hedland become temporary islands as low lying areas are inundated.

Residents head to evacuation centre

The evacuation centre in South Hedland has been filling with people.

A small army of volunteers has set up bedding and support services, while volunteers have been delivering enough food, water and toiletries to last several days.

"I just volunteered last night, we were talking about it and they didn't know how they were going to get the gear over here," volunteer Jason Maracic said. "Me and another bloke, with two trucks, sent one to Coles and one to Woolworths just to make it a bit easier for them."

Kirk Morrison was among those staying at the centre and said having spent most of his life in the north-west, that it was not his "first rodeo" when it came to cyclones. ...

... The death toll will likely increase massively, with thousands believed to have died in Mozambique where flooding has created a 125-kilometer (78-mile) wide lake, devastating an area previously populated by hundreds of thousands of people. The World Food Program (WFP) declared the flood crisis a level three emergency, putting it in the same bracket with Yemen, Syria and South Sudan.

At this stage of the rescue effort, there were almost no survivors being recovered from rooftops and trees, Mozambique's disaster management agency said.

... "We are running out of time, it is at a critical point here," the United Nations children's agency (UNICEF) chief Henrietta Fore told AFP news agency. She warned hygiene and safe drinking water are absolute priorities.

"There's stagnant water, it's not draining, decomposing bodies, lack of good hygiene and sanitation," Fore said. "We are worried about cholera, about malaria, because of the stagnant water." ...

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Meanwhile, with 2 carrier groups 40 rotor-craft and water purification equipment within 1800 miles of the humanitarian disaster, plus an additional 20 transport aircraft from AFRICOM and Diego Garcia even closer - Trump does NOTHING! to help.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

10,000 hot meals served by our #ChefsForMozambique team across 4 camps & shelters today! Proud of @WCKitchen leading the way, but wouldn’t be possible without incredible local support...so much need here after cyclone—soon we will be serving 50k+ per day...

It’s been a busy year so far for cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. Australia has been hit by two major storms this March, Trevor and Veronica, that suspended dry bulk shipping around the northern coasts of the country. The world’s two largest dry bulk ports – Hedland and Dampier – are located there, and were still shut down as March 25, 2019. The two large, strong cyclones struck back-to-back in a short period of time. Major liquefied natural gas export facilities along the northwestern Australian coast have also suspended operations. All of this happening about a month before the official end of Australia’s cyclone season.

Another area south of the equator that has had recent run-ins with cyclones is the island of Rodrigues in the Indian Ocean. Tropical Cyclone Joaninha came close to making a direct hit earlier this week, and continues to linger nearby as of this evening (Thursday, March 28), local time (EDT plus eight hours). At its closest point, the eye of the storm was only 50 miles from Rodrigues, which is home to about 40,000 people

Joaninha trudged along, moving at a sluggish 10 mph, ensuring a drawn out onslaught from the cyclone. Winds in Rodrigues’ capital of Port Mathurin, on the north coast, gusted over 60 mph (Tropical Storm strength) for more than 30 hours. The highest recorded gust anywhere on the island was around 100 mph (Category 2 Hurricane strength).

... This is the second storm to hit Rodrigues this year. Cyclone Gelena, a storm of similar size and strength as Joaninha, passed by the island in early February. It destroyed 90 percent of its electric grid, and forced the evacuation of more than 140 people to shelters.

... Reports indicate that there are 139 cases of cholera in the port city Beira, Mozambique, and that number is expected to rise (no cases have been reported yet in Zimbabwe or Malawi). There are no confirmed deaths from cholera so far.

If V. cholerae starts spreading, it can be difficult to control. Outbreaks usually happen when a country’s health, hygiene, and water systems break down — and that’s why they can appear after a natural disaster or amid a humanitarian crisis.

... Making matters worse “Cyclone Idai’s wreckage came on top of an already serious food insecurity situation in Mozambique,” the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, reports. “From September to December 2018, an estimated 1.78 million people... were severely food insecure in the country.” Those problems are now exacerbated by the storm. The United Nations World Food Programme has classified the situation in Mozambique as its highest-level emergency.

And that brings us back to cholera spreading in Beira.

“Malnutrition and cholera are interconnected,” Jamie McGoldrick, the UN humanitarian coordinator for Yemen told the Washington Post. “Weakened and hungry people are more likely to contract cholera and cholera is more likely to flourish in places where malnutrition exists.”

Having survived a monumental cyclone and widespread flooding, people are now facing a cholera crisis. Almost a million doses of cholera vaccine are on their way, but in the meantime, the number of cases is exploding.

The number of reported cases of cholera in Mozambique has doubled in 48 hours, authorities said.

- 271 cases of cholera have been reported in the port city of Beira. Suspected cases were also reported in the hard-hit areas of Buzi, Tica and Nhamathanda.

« Last Edit: March 31, 2019, 07:22:49 AM by vox_mundi »

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

... Cyclone Kenneth is chugging from the Pacific toward Mozambique. Currently the equivalent of a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 52 mph, the cyclone is expected to strengthen in the coming days. Cyclone Kenneth is forecast to strafe the island nation of Comoros before plowing into Mozambique’s northern coast on Thursday or early Friday.

The island archipelago of Comoros could actually bear the worst impacts of Kenneth, wind-wise. The storm is expected to top out at 103 mph—the equivalent of a Category 2 storm—early on Thursday as it hits Comoros’ main island. That would make it the first hurricane-force storm in recorded history to make landfall in Comoros, according to data kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The 3,000-foot escarpments on the northern end of the island could help weaken Kenneth a bit before the storm strike Mozambique later that day as a strong Category 1 with winds of up to 92 mph ... But that’s where the marginally good news comparisons end. There are a number of population centers still in this storm’s path according, to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast. They include Pemba, a city of roughly 200,000, and Palma, a small town that’s a hub of liquified natural gas exports.

As with Idai, rain is also a major concern. The storm is expected to slowly move inland, a recipe for copious rain and flooding. Up to 20 inches of rain could fall according to Bloomberg, totals that are worrisomely in line with Idai’s forecast.

Any people requiring help in the wake of Cyclone Kenneth will have to rely on a support system still overtaxed by Idai. There are still more than 77,000 internally displaced people and the United Nations reports that even a month after the storm, aid workers are finding communities that have been cut off from the outside world. A cholera outbreak fueled by the Idai’s floodwaters has affected more than 6,000. According to another United Nations report released on Saturday, “[m]any interior roads remain inaccessible, as numerous secondary roads were washed away or cut off.”

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

"An unprecedented event for northern MozambiqueIn records going back 50 years, far northern Mozambique has no record of storms of even minimal hurricane strength, much less a system as powerful as Kenneth. The landfall location (12°S) is quite close to the equator, in a latitude range where it becomes more difficult for cyclones to gather enough atmospheric spin to develop. Only a couple of tropical depressions and tropical storms have made landfall this far north in Mozambique or in Tanzania in the several decades of satellite coverage.Kenneth ranks among the strongest landfalls on record for the entire African mainland. Cyclone Leon-Eline struck Mozambique on Feb. 26, 2000, with top one-minute sustained winds of 134 mph as assessed by JTWC. Off the mainland, Cyclones Hary (2000) and Gafilo (2004) both struck Madagascar at Category 5 strength, with top sustained winds of 160 mph, according to JTWC."

Parallel equatorial cyclones in the Indian and the remnant over Africa... wow! The cyclone that's forecast to impact India and Bangladesh is likely to result in another +500MB bulge that enters the Arctic via ESS (IMO).

Heavy rain and winds across northern Mozambique on Friday brought warnings from the UN of "massive flooding" to come in the next few days as Cyclone Kenneth moves slowly inland over northern Mozambique.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) said it was possible 600 millimeters (almost 24 inches) of rain could fall over the next few days in some areas. This would be double the amount of rain that fell on the central city of Beira during the cyclone which hit in March.

The storm hit Mozambique just as crops including cotton, maize, soybeans and millet were about to be harvested. It was the first storm to make landfall over the northern coast's Cabo Delgado province in 60 years.

« Last Edit: April 28, 2019, 07:36:01 AM by vox_mundi »

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Fani is a big deal, about a day and a half away. Could be more than catastrophic. Kenneth is still causing unbearable human suffering (Mozambique etc.), after Idai as well. The thing off Florida is not yet, and unlikely to become, a very big deal, except it's a mite early. For reliable information, here. A lot of meteo enthusiasts and experts post in the comment section, and during storms the leaders do a good job of updating the main Category 6 articles (Masters, Henson, et al.). https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Widespread-Surge-Threat-Fani-Moves-toward-Northeast-India

There are floods in quite a few places and the US is having a stream of tornadoes.

Fani is a big deal, about a day and a half away. Could be more than catastrophic. Kenneth is still causing unbearable human suffering (Mozambique etc.), after Idai as well. The thing off Florida is not yet, and unlikely to become, a very big deal, except it's a mite early. For reliable information, here. A lot of meteo enthusiasts and experts post in the comment section, and during storms the leaders do a good job of updating the main Category 6 articles (Masters, Henson, et al.). https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Widespread-Surge-Threat-Fani-Moves-toward-Northeast-India

There are floods in quite a few places and the US is having a stream of tornadoes.

I understand that there are large storms in progress around the world and that they are truly bad. I also know the US storm is unlikely to be big news.

While the storm I mentioned is unlikely to turn into anything of importance, I was referring more to the part where hurricanes are beginning earlier in that region of the world.... if this becomes a named storm it will be 5 years in a row of it happening before the hurricane season begins. To me, that is beginning to tell us a story of significance concerning climate change.

Cyclone Fani looks like it is going to clobber the historical city of Puri with sustained winds of 100+ knots. The capital of Odisha (was Orissa) Bhubaneswar is not far inland and will also be affected.

Unless things have changed a lot in the nearly 20 years or so since I was there, Odisha's economy is almost entirely rural small-scale farming.

@RodiusSorry, didn't mean to make it personal. I've been following Fani with my heart in my mouth, those poor people, and saw quite a bit of discussion about the Florida thing on the same board (link above, which is useful to those who want more information).

I agree, the general trend towards earlier and later is ominous ...

Another knock-on, though I don't comprehend the scientific part, is that since cyclonic activity is a way of venting excess heat both north and vertically, it's a problem that increases polar melt over time. I am absolutely fascinated by the interlocking systems.