Poll puts Parker ahead of Hall, but 'don't know' leads

Updated 10:23 am, Tuesday, September 24, 2013

"Annise Parker is well-liked by Houstonians and voters believe the city
is moving in the right direction under her leadership," the mayor's campaign said.

"Annise Parker is well-liked by Houstonians and voters believe the city
is moving in the right direction under her leadership," the mayor's campaign said.

Photo: Karen Warren, Staff

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Parker is seeking a final two years as mayor. (Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle)

Parker is seeking a final two years as mayor. (Karen Warren / Houston Chronicle)

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The poll results, however, don't seem to worry Ben Hall's campaign.

The poll results, however, don't seem to worry Ben Hall's campaign.

Photo: J. Patric Schneider, Freelance

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A political observer suggests Hall would have to win almost all of the black vote to force a runoff.

A political observer suggests Hall would have to win almost all of the black vote to force a runoff.

Photo: Dave Rossman, Freelance

Poll puts Parker ahead of Hall, but 'don't know' leads

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A poll released Monday in Houston's mayoral contest shows Mayor Annise Parker with a wide lead over top challenger Ben Hall, but both candidates are trailing "don't know."

The KUHF/KHOU poll, conducted earlier this month by Rice University political scientist Bob Stein among likely city voters, shows Parker with the support of 34.1 percent of respondents, and Hall at 13.6 percent.

Nearly 48 percent of those asked said they did not know for whom they would vote if the election were held today, or refused to answer. The only other candidate with support registering higher than a few tenths of a percent was Eric Dick, at 2 percent.

The poll surveyed 424 people and has a 4.76 percentage point margin of error.

Stein and political observers said the data appear to affirm early assumptions that Hall would have an uphill climb against Parker, a two-term incumbent seeking a final two years as mayor amid a strong economy. Observers attributed the large undecided bloc to the survey being conducted relatively early in a race that has generated few bombshells.

Parker campaign spokeswoman Sue Davis predicted the incumbent would win without a runoff, saying roughly $500,000 in television advertising by Hall in early August failed to move the needle.

"As the voters learn more about Mr. Hall, I think his numbers are not going to improve that much," Davis said. "Annise Parker is well-liked by Houstonians and voters believe the city is moving in the right direction under her leadership. We are confident she will beat Mr. Hall handily."

Hall campaign spokeswoman Julia Smekalina said the poll results show Parker's slim margin from the 2011 election, when she earned 50.8 percent of the vote against five poorly funded unknowns, has evaporated.

"These numbers show what we hear every day - Ms. Parker's tenure has been repudiated by the people of Houston and she will not be re-elected as the next mayor," she said. "As Houstonians are beginning to see the vision Ben Hall has set forth, they are rallying behind his ideas for the city's future. The grass-roots momentum that we see supporting Ben's candidacy is growing and will secure his election as mayor."

Political observers said arguably more important than the poll's horse-race numbers are the wider trends: 62 percent of respondents said Houston is on the right track, 56 percent said they expect the economy to improve in the next few years, and 57 percent said Parker has done an "excellent" or "good" job.

Even when accounting for the poll's margin of error, said Democratic political consultant Mustafa Tameez, all three measures are above 50 percent, suggesting Parker could garner a majority of votes on Nov. 5 and avoid a runoff.

"For any challenger, the race is always about the incumbent and the dissatisfaction the public would have about the incumbent," Tameez said. "In these poll numbers, I don't see anything that says that Parker is in a lot of trouble."

"These are devastating numbers for the Hall campaign," McGrath said. "When you're taking on an incumbent, it's under the predicate that things are not going well or are not going to get better, and that's a narrative that Mr. Hall and his campaign team will have to continue asserting against the belief of a wide majority of Houstonians who think things are getting better, who think the mayor has done a good job."

Though Parker's job approval ratings and the optimism of voters have improved since 2011, Stein said, a quarter of the people who think the city is headed in the right direction and who approve of her work did not say they planned to vote for her.

That may be because these voters attribute the city's success to people and forces other than Parker, he said, or because she does not connect with voters on a personal level the way data suggest the city's previous three mayors did.

Still, Stein said, Hall may have to win 90 percent of the black vote to force a runoff, and this month's poll puts his support at 29 percent among African-Americans, with Parker at 24 percent. Parker also led among white Republicans, 27 percent to Hall's 11 percent.

"I think she wins this election, it's just a question of when she wins it, the general election or a runoff," Stein said.