Thursday, January 3, 2013

The
question of how the United States should respond to China’s military
modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has
emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of
particular importance to the U.S. Navy, because many U.S. military programs for countering
improved Chinese military forces would fall within the Navy’s budget.

Two DOD strategy and budget documents released in January 2012 state that U.S.
military strategy will place a renewed emphasis on the Asia-Pacific
region, and that as a result, there will be a renewed emphasis on air and
naval forces in DOD plans. Administration officials have stated that
notwithstanding reductions in planned levels of U.S. defense spending, the U.S.
military presence in the Asia-Pacific region will be maintained and strengthened.

Decisions that Congress and the executive branch make regarding U.S. Navy
programs for countering improved Chinese maritime military capabilities
could affect the likelihood or possible outcome of a potential
U.S.-Chinese military conflict in the Pacific over Taiwan or some other
issue. Some observers consider such a conflict to be very unlikely, in part
because of significant U.S.-Chinese economic linkages and the tremendous
damage that such a conflict could cause on both sides. In the absence of such
a conflict, however, the U.S.-Chinese military balance in the Pacific
could nevertheless influence day-to-day choices made by other Pacific
countries, including choices on whether to align their policies more
closely with China or the United States. In this sense, decisions that
Congress and the executive branch make regarding U.S. Navy programs for
countering improved Chinese maritime military forces could influence the
political evolution of the Pacific, which in turn could affect the ability
of the United States to pursue goals relating to various policy issues,
both in the Pacific and elsewhere.

China’s naval modernization effort, which began in the 1990s, encompasses a
broad array of weapon acquisition programs, including anti-ship ballistic
missiles (ASBMs), submarines, and surface ships. China’s naval
modernization effort also includes reforms and improvements in maintenance
and logistics, naval doctrine, personnel quality, education, training, and
exercises. Observers believe that the near-term focus of China’s military
modernization effort has been to develop military options for addressing
the situation with Taiwan. Consistent with this goal, observers believe
that China wants its military to be capable of acting as a so-called
anti-access force—a force that can deter U.S. intervention in a conflict
involving Taiwan, or failing that, delay the arrival or reduce the
effectiveness of intervening U.S. naval and air forces. Observers believe
that China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization
effort, is increasingly oriented toward pursuing additional goals, such as
asserting or defending China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea
and East China Sea; enforcing China’s view—a minority view among world
nations—that it has the right to regulate foreign military activities in its
200- mile maritime exclusive economic zone (EEZ); protecting China’s sea
lines of communications; protecting and evacuating Chinese nationals in
foreign countries; displacing U.S. influence in the Pacific; and asserting
China’s status as a major world power.

Potential oversight issues for Congress include the following: whether the U.S.
Navy in coming years will be large enough to adequately counter improved
Chinese maritime anti-access forces while also adequately performing other
missions of interest to U.S. policymakers around the world; the Navy’s
ability to counter Chinese ASBMs and submarines; and whether the Navy, in response
to China’s maritime anti-access capabilities, should shift over time to a more
distributed fleet architecture.

Date of Report: December 10, 2012
Number of Pages: 107Order Number: RL33153Price: $29.95

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