Elections - Arizona Legislature

Dems say Legislature in play

Buoyed by fundraising, party targets takeover

by Mary Jo Pitzl - Sept. 29, 2008 12:00 AMThe Arizona Republic

Campaign signs are popping up and then disappearing just as quickly. Glossy brochures are hitting mailboxes and earnest candidates and their volunteers are knocking on your doors. It's campaign season, and the Arizona Legislature is in play.

Long the domain of Republican majorities, the statehouse is being eyed by eager Democrats as ripe for a takeover, especially the House of Representatives - although they've now added the Senate to their list, albeit as a long shot.

Republicans aren't as brash in their assessments, but are quietly confident they can keep their majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps increase their lead in the Senate.

Currently, the Republicans hold 33 of the House's 60 seats. In the Senate, the split is 17 Republicans and 13 Democrats.

Democrats point to the "change" mood coloring this year's elections, an energized and well-funded party and the results of this month's GOP primary elections as reasons for their optimism.

"What we saw in the September primaries were Republicans saying, 'What we need to fix this state is more conservatives,' " Democratic Party spokesman Emily DeRose said.

In contested GOP primaries, the more conservative candidate prevailed in races from Anthem to Tucson. That makes for more striking contrasts with the Democrats, many of whom have been carefully groomed to strike a moderate tone.

But for Democrats to prevail in those contests, they'll need to overcome registration margins that favor the GOP.

Republicans say they'll be helped by the top of the ticket, with Arizona's John McCain leading the ballot in the presidential race. Last month's convention and the addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket have energized the party, said Rep. John McComish, the House majority whip and one of the Republicans overseeing party efforts to protect the GOP's legislative majority.

"When I rub my crystal ball, I see us somewhere between status quo and picking up one or two seats," said McComish, of Phoenix.

Democrats need to defend the six seats they gained in the 2006 elections, and then add four more to take control of the House, something that hasn't happened since 1966.

Some of their projected pick-up seats come in districts where there is no incumbent, so the Nov. 4 general election will pit newcomer against newcomer.

The West Valley is a key battleground.

On Saturday, Gov. Janet Napolitano rallied campaign workers as they prepared to walk neighborhoods in support of Democratic candidates. Personal contact is key to spreading the message about candidates at the local level, she said.

"This is the opportunity for us to get in there and say, 'Let's talk,' " Napolitano told volunteers gathered outside freshman Rep. Jackie Thrasher's northwest Phoenix home.

The setting was not accidental: Thrasher won a House seat in District 10 in 2006, one of the six seats Democrats picked up that year. Napolitano said the party was aiming high this year: Take both House seats and pick up the Senate seat as well.

It's a tall order: Thrasher's seatmate is Speaker Jim Weiers, who has represented the district for the last 14 years.

But the governor said the GOP registration edge in the district was eroding and she noted Weiers' narrow win two years ago.

Money is another factor. The Democrats have a sizeable edge.

The latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show the Democrats with more than four times as much cash on hand as the Republicans: $346,116 compared with $78,431.