For the first time decades, Appalachian State is anxious. There's that losing season to deal with, the program's first since 1993. The Mountaineers went 4-8 last fall, starting 1-6 before finding a rhythm late in Southern Conference play. There's the anxiety of a coaching change entering its second season: Scott Satterfield, a former ASU assistant, was the second first-year coach in the last 50 years to win fewer than five games in his debut.

And there's the anxiety involved with reaching uncharted territory, one shared by fellow Football Bowl Subdivision newcomers like Georgia State, Georgia Southern and Old Dominion. Like Georgia Southern, the Mountaineers will slot into the Sun Belt Conference as a multiple-time national champion on the Football Championship Subdivision level.

Despite the history, there's no preparation for this transition: Appalachian State had achieved all there was to achieve in the FCS, but playing games against FBS competition in September is different than winning them in November.

Since famously beating Michigan in 2007, ASU has gone 0-6 against the FBS: LSU in 2008, ECU in 2009 and 2012, Florida in 2010, Virginia Tech in 2011 and Georgia in 2013. What does this mean? In short, that some vintage ASU teams – including several Southern Conference champions – haven't been up to snuff against a difficult slate of FBS competition.

So the upcoming Sun Belt schedule doesn't include an LSU, a Florida, a Georgia or even an ECU, outside of Louisiana-Lafayette – though the Mountaineers are set to take on Michigan, seven years later. What the schedule does include is 10 FBS games, eight against league competition. That this comes one year after a losing season means you can understand the anxiety.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION:

Not applicable.

2013 RECAP:

In a nutshell: ASU had more losses by Oct. 20 than any Mountaineers team since 1993 and ended with more losses than any squad since 1979 – two facts that do a nice job of summing up a supremely disappointing season. Obviously, this wasn't the way the Mountaineers envisioned one final season in the FCS. Of the four wins, one came against Georgia Southern, a seven-win team; another came against Wofford, an average Southern Conference opponent; and two came against Elon and Western Carolina, the league's two bottom-feeders. What's the opposite of a banner season? ASU truly didn't know: Last year was the program's worst in decades. To be blunt, a similar performance would place ASU among the nation's worst FBS teams in 2014.

High point: Beating Georgia Southern on Oct. 26. The win will echo into 2014 as the two FCS rivals battle for positioning in the Sun Belt.

Low point: An overtime loss to The Citadel on Oct. 5. If was the fifth of six losses in seven tries to open the year, a stretch that ensured the program's first losing season in 20 years.

Tidbit: Appalachian State led the FCS in average attendance in each of the last seven seasons. Last fall, the Mountaineers averaged 24,894 fans for its six home games. The highest average during this span was in 2010, when ASU hosted an average of 29,449 per game. One note: ASU's last two seasons – 24,450 in 2012 joining last fall – is the program's lowest two-year average since 2005-6, when it averaged 23,169 and 22,589, respectively.

Offense: Two younger pieces serve as the present and future of ASU's offense. One is already proven: Marcus Cox, a sophomore, rushed for 1,250 yards and 15 touchdowns last fall, adding 43 receptions for 559 yards through the air, and stood immediately – even as a true freshman – as one of the top skill players on the FCS level. How did Satterfield and his staff uncover this gem? Cox was a lower-tier two-star recruit, per most services, though he held offers from a handful of FBS programs – most in the MAC, like Miami (Ohio), Buffalo and Ohio. That he opted for immediate playing time over a time on the bench was to ASU's huge gain: Cox was simply outstanding last fall, outgrowing even the staff's expectations, and seems poised for a banner career as the bell-cow behind the Mountaineers' running game. In reserve, the Mountaineers have Ricky Ferguson (215 yards) and Terrance Upshaw.

Appalachian State running back Marcus Cox (14) will be a key piece of the Mountaineers' transition to full FBS membership and competition.(Photo: Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports)

Another sophomore is slightly behind Cox's curve – though he was similarly impressive last fall, albeit in a smaller sample size. At quarterback, Kam Bryant opened the year behind Jamal Londry-Jackson but moved into the starting lineup by midseason, eventually showcasing the accuracy – 71.2% of his attempts, 14 touchdowns against only four interceptions – that makes him an ideal option in Satterfield's spread system. If not yet at his peak, Bryant seemed more confident during the spring; that resulted in quicker decisions, another asset needed for this passing game to run at full capacity. Cox remains the leader of this offense, but Bryant is not far behind – and even if both hit a snag in the transition to a stronger degree of competition, this is a really nice two-headed monster for ASU to build around.

Where this team doesn't quite match up with the FBS is on the offensive line: ASU is behind the eight ball, as one might expect from a program thinking about the FBS level but still limited to recruiting to the FCS level. But the line isn't necessarily small, a nice positive even as the group attempts to find a groove against FBS defensive front – and for every transitional program, one of the steepest leaps comes in handling FBS-level athletes in front seven. One worry: ASU is in line to play a few true freshmen in reserve roles. The starting lineup does remain largely intact, however. The Mountaineers will roll with Graham Fisher at center, Kendall Lamm at left tackle, either Will Corbin or Davante Harris at right tackle and Beau Nunn, Colby Gossett and Alex Acey inside.

Defense: The defense grows weaker as we move away from the line of scrimmage. The defensive line shouldn't be terrible, even if the same aside holds true: As on the other side of the ball, the defensive front must deal with a stronger, bigger, deeper class of offensive linemen on the FBS level. One of the defense's more importance pieces is nose tackle Tyson Fernandez, a 330-pound sophomore who can occupy blockers in the middle – but can't be counted for a heavy total of snaps. If Fernandez does improve his conditioning, ASU has to like its size inside and options at end: Ronald Blair had a great spring, per the staff; Olewale Dada has the burst to make plays on passing downs, though he's not useful against the run; and Nathaniel Norwood, Deuce Robinson and Thomas Bronson can add depth, if little explosiveness.

Another reason why Fernandez is a key piece is ASU's lack of size at linebacker – the Mountaineers go for speed and quickness over strength, a decision that can make this defense dangerous in space but could be a negative against between-the-tackles ground games. At least there's depth: ASU has three nice players on the outside and as many as five or six bodies for the two interior positions, giving the second level a number of options depending offensive personnel. At outside linebacker, look for Osavaldo Sombo, Lee Wright and Keenan Gilchrist (59 tackles, 4.5 for loss) to run with the first team when the Mountaineers return in August. It's more muddled inside: Brandon McGowan and John Law (71 tackles) will start, but there are as many as four or five reserves battling for a spot in the rotation. It's a small group, yeah, but ASU is deep.

The secondary is the weak link. One player who could provide a boost is Jordan Ford, the lone JUCO transfer in February's recruiting class; Ford is coming off an injury, however, so he'll be playing from behind in fall camp. When he does return, Ford could slot into ASU's thin crop of cornerbacks – the Mountaineers have Joel Ross and Aaron Krah but don't seem comfortable with either option, which might be understandable. While there are bodies to comb through at safety, don't confuse options with depth: ASU is auditioning a slew of potential starters – with A.J. Howard a freshman set to play immediately – not to merely create competition but out of pure necessity. If I'm ASU, the secondary would be my greatest concern.

Special teams: A healthy Tacoi Shulmer – more below – helps ASU's special teams in two ways: one, he can give the return game a boost, and two, by doing so can allow the staff to keep Cox fresh for the backfield. The kicking game is pretty good: Bentlee Critcher is a total boomer at punter, putting him in the mix for all-conference honors, and junior Zach Matics had a very solid spring at kicker.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH:

Wide receiver: Satterfield's spread offense hit a snag late in the spring due to injuries at wide receiver: ASU started the spring with nine receivers – and will have a few more in August – but were down to five by April, robbing the offense of an opportunity to fully jell during offseason drills. That's a concern, as is the dearth of proven playmakers at the position. Two key contributors, Andrew Peacock and Tony Washington, must be replaced; that's placed pressure on the staff to locate another handful of targets capable of easing Bryant's transition to the full-time starter. One clear leader is Simms McElfresh (20 receptions for 269 yards), who had an outstanding spring – he's the go-to receiver heading into the summer, followed by Malachi Jones (31 for 293), Tacoi Shuler – finally healthy after battling to see the field – Trey Kavanaugh and Bobo Beathard. At tight end, the staff would love to use more of Barrett Burns (22 for 205), who was a valuable weapon last fall. The Mountaineers will also add in a number of receivers this summer, including three-star recruit Jordan Noil. Two issues: one, depth and trustworthy production is an issue, and two, Peacock and Washington combined for 142 grabs for 1,645 yards a year ago. That's not going to be easy to replace – and as such, you wonder if Bryant will continue his progression without reliable security blankets in the passing game.

GAME(S) TO WATCH:

Georgia Southern: It'll be a blast to head back into Ann Arbor – and get booed, probably – but the year's biggest games come against Georgia Southern and Georgia State. Both are winnable, as last season proved; Georgia Southern comes on the road, but with the Eagles undergoing a coaching change the Mountaineers might be early favorites. Winning both of those games, beating Campbell and topping Liberty would leave ASU on the verge of a very solid FBS debut.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION:

In a nutshell: Be anxious, just not so anxious: Appalachian State might not be poised for an FBS breakthrough in 2014, but there's no reason to be pessimistic about the program's chances of finding a fairly early rhythm as a member of the Sun Belt – think 2015 or 2016, much like Georgia Southern, another ex-Southern Conference member set for a sluggish debut. This team does have issues, more negatives than positives, but why shouldn't ASU hit its groove in the FBS once the staff adds another full recruiting class to a growing familiarity with the styles, sizes, strengths and weakness of this heightened level of competition? Be anxious for 2014 – because I don't think this year goes terribly well – but be positive about what this program can achieve in the future.

Now, 2014: I'm thinking three or four wins, thanks in heavy part to the two games against FCS competition and home dates with Georgia Southern, Georgia State and Idaho. Given this team's personnel – which isn't totally awful – the Mountaineers should escape from the bottom of the Sun Belt, though not from the bottom 10-15 teams in the FBS. For starters, let's think about the weaknesses. One is the offensive line; there's no escaping the idea that this group will struggle in the transition. The secondary is a mess, one fueled by the lack of a proven pass rush. The receiver corps is in bad shape, the return game is an unknown and the team as a whole must adjust to the stronger schedule. It's not a terrific combination.

Even two strengths come with question marks. Cox and Bryant hold enormous promise, but both are only sophomores – even if we must admit that both impressed as rookies. I think the defensive line is ahead of the curve in stopping the run, but much hinges on both Fernandez, his ability to play more snaps than in 2013, and depth along the interior. In the long run, both spots are in very good shape. But can't the same be said of ASU as a whole – that the foundation looks good even if this year's team deals with its share of issues?

Dream season: Appalachian State goes a surprising 6-6, adding a pair to last year's win total with the help of two victories against FCS competition.

Nightmare season: The Mountaineers knock off Campbell early but lose all 10 games against FBS foes – with a loss to Liberty for good measure.

UP NEXT:

Who's No. 118?This program has not suffered a losing season when outscoring the competition since 1987.