>> Saturday, February 28, 2009

I greatly appreciate everyone checking in to the blog here. Thanks so much for stopping by!

This is the point in every winter weather forecast I do that all of the doubts and second guessing starts taking place in my head. I keep seeing things that could potentially go wrong with the forecast. However, those that have been following me on the blog for any length of time know I am not a flip-flopper. Once I come up with a forecast idea, I will ride that idea until it is obvious I must change.

Don't get me wrong, there is not any real reason to want to change the ideas I have put out there in terms of accumulations. It is just as time goes on, I continue to imagine this scenario and that scenario that could put the forecast down the tubes.

The only thing a little concerning to me is that some modeling is really showing a lull in the action for a while tomorrow evening after the profile gets cold enough for all snow. But more precip fills back in later, and it is probably that next batch that will determine most of our snow totals.

But, I will not change anything this evening at all. Anyone in the Piedmont could see 3-7" of snow. And I do feel there will be a strip of heavier totals where up to 6-10" could fall. I still feel the most likely location for that strip is from the Charlotte metro area up to around the Triad.

All of this is a long-winded way to say I am not going to make any changes to my accumulation ideas. I will keep looking at the data tonight, and if any changes need to be made, they will be made tomorrow.

We are really now to the point of nowcasting. It is time to put most of the model charts away (with the exception of the skilled short range models) and watch the weather.....satellite, radar, observations, etc.

So far, the system is over-performing back in Arkansas and Tennessee. We will see if that has any implications downstream.

I am going to try and spend a couple of hours away from the computer here this evening....but if I see anything earth-shattering, I will share it late this evening.

All right, I have reviewed all of the 12z data that is in-house, and I have made my initial forecast on snow accumulations with our upcoming snow event. I have cut a special Saturday edition of the Carolina Weather Video, and it is posted above. Please give it a look.

Below this is my accumulation outline. The area inside the blue line, I am going with a general 3-7" snow with isolated higher or lower amounts. The area inside the white line, including portions of the Charlotte metro and the Triad, is my 6-10" area. Isolated lollipops inside that area could possible see over a foot.

Now, as I stated on the video, for some reason, one of the computer models loses some of the moisture aloft required for snow formation tomorrow evening. I don't think that is correct, but if it is, it would greatly reduce these amounts.

Also, the ground is quite warm, but assuming the snow gets heavy like it should in the deformation zone, that should not be a problem.

All right folks....I will have lots of details later on, and I will lay down some accumulation ideas, for better or worse, after I review most of the 12z data. I will also try to cut a video today if time allows. Check back a little later on!

>> Friday, February 27, 2009

At this point, I think things are looking about as good as they can look two days out for the Piedmont of North Carolina....if you are looking for snow.

The models continue to slightly bounce around and adjust the exact placement of features, but there has certainly not been any trend away from accumulating snow potential today.

I will not put out any accumulation ideas until tomorrow. However, I still say somebody in the Carolinas, especially in the NC Piedmont, has a good shot of seeing a very significant snow storm.

Everyone is still 'in the game' so to speak at this point from the mountains over toward the Coastal Plain. However, if you pinned me down right now, I would favor the western and central Piedmont regions as having the highest potential for the heaviest snow. But of course that could change slightly with newer data.

Like I said, for snow lovers, I think things look about as good as they can look for 48 hours or so out from the event.

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather weekend. LOTS of good stuff in there....give it a look.

Whew.....buckle up...a wild weekend is ahead.

Today, we will see some showers with an embedded storm possible today into tonight. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60s.

A strong upper level disturbance will close off into an upper level low as it dives into the Deep South over the weekend. That will cause some soaking rains to move through the Carolinas tomorrow into tomorrow evening.

Then, as that upper level low continues tracking eastward, we will see a period of snow likely across much of the region later Sunday into Monday morning.

I still don't have a lot of confidence in specifics in terms of accumulations, but some folks will likely wind up with the biggest snow event since February 2004.

This will be one of those deals where there will likely be a sharp gradient in the snow totals. Some folks will be very disappointed....some folks will be very happy.

All of this could of course change, but as of this typing, the models are in pretty good agreement. However, when dealing with upper level lows, you have to expect the unexpected. Stay tuned....

>> Thursday, February 26, 2009

Give today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video a look above....lots of good stuff regarding this weekend.

Interesting stuff. Most of the modeling from overnight has trended in a positive direction for snow lovers in the Carolinas. The models are almost unanimous in showing a closed 500mb low move through Georgia into South Carolina Sunday and Sunday night.

It is FAR too early for any confidence in specifics, but it is encouraging to see most of the modeling at least in the same neighborhood.

Here is my general thinking as of now....

Cold front approaches tomorrow and brings a chance of rain showers tomorrow afternoon and night. That front will stall out somewhere close by, and as a powerful upper level low approaches, another surface low will develop in the Deep South Saturday.

I still like the odds of a soaking rain in the Piedmont Saturday and Saturday night, and then, a period of snow certainly looks possible later Sunday, Sunday night, and maybe into Monday.

Here is the standard disclaimer....this is a complex system, and lots could change over the next 72 hours. However, there is definitely a chance of accumulating snow Sunday into Monday. Will it verify....it is just a little too soon for any real confidence.

>> Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots of good stuff in there today....

Some VIRGA out there this morning....outside of a few sprinkles or flurries, no significant precip.

We will see some milder temps today and tomorrow....highs today top out in the mid 50s with low to even mid 60s tomorrow.

Our next cold front will drop in later Friday and bring a good chance of showers by Friday afternoon and evening.

I am getting a little more confident in how things will unfold this weekend. It looks like the front will stall just to our south while an area of low pressure begins to develop off to our west. That low will then ride along the front to off of the Carolina coast by later Sunday.

That will likely mean periods of rain Saturday into Sunday. As some very potent upper level energy dives into the area Sunday, there is a chance for a changeover to snow somewhere in the state before the precip ends. It is too soon to know whether or not any accumulation would be possible.

Keep in mind with this type of system that some major refinements might have to be made to this outlook. Please see the video for more details. Right now, I would put this more into the category of 'interesting' as opposed to concern over something major, but time will tell.

>> Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

I had a great time with Jayden up in the High Country. We went sledding at Beech Mountain Sunday afternoon after a great lunch at the Banner Elk Cafe. Let me tell you...it was snowing hard while we were at Beech Mountain....temps was 17 degrees, and the wind was howling.

I really enjoyed getting to see the snow. It was snowing when we got up there around lunchtime Sunday and it did not stop snowing until a bit before lunchtime yesterday.

A group of us from church stayed the night in Boone and then yesterday went to App to hit the slopes. Jayden did the French Swiss Ski School class in the morning, and then we skied the rest of the day. I was really proud of her...she did great, and she was not scared at all. When she finished up at the school, I asked her what she wanted to do. Her reply was to go up the ski lift.

So, I walk back into work this morning into model mayhem for the weekend. The forecast is pretty straight-forward through Friday. Warming each day and then a cold front bring some rain chances Thursday night and especially Friday.

The models are then all over the place then over the weekend....see the video...I get into all of that on there.

>> Sunday, February 22, 2009

The band of precip with this morning's cold front looked very healthy back in Tennessee last night, but as expected, the mountains did their usual trick of wringing out a lot of the moisture. However, some light rain has occurred on this side of the mountains, and a bit of light snow is possible in some locations in the Piedmont this morning. But this is not a big deal at all.

Up in the mountains, snow showers will kick in today and last into this evening...a couple of inches will fall in some spots.

Pretty cold airmass moving in. It will be breezy today, and lows tonight and tomorrow night will hit the lower 20s...even upper teens in some spots. Highs tomorrow will only be in the 40s in the Charlotte and Triad zones.

As I mentioned in the previous post, I am off tomorrow morning. My oldest daughter and myself are headed up to the High Country to do some sledding and skiing today and tomorrow. I will be back in the big chair for the Triad market Tuesday morning.