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Friday, 5 August 2016

No Man's Land

Changes in the quantity of money affect not only all things quoted in monetary terms such as corporate earnings and GDP, but also interest rates. For the continuance of illusory economic growth however, the money supply must not only continue to expand, but must do so at an ever expanding rate over time - a flat growth rate will not do the trick.

The unprecedented stable money supply growth rate during the last three years or so helps explain why GDP- and earnings growth rates have been declining especially during the last year. In many ways we are now in no man's land awaiting what happens next: QE4 to bring about an increase in monetary inflation once again or a money supply growth rate that will contract? With banks around the world already feeling the pinch (e.g. bank stock prices have been falling for some time) it would be expecting too much of banks to expand bank credit growth rates much further as cash is becoming increasingly "scarce" (e.g. that's why central banks such as the ECB and BOE are putting in place ludicrous "programs" to help spur lending and why the Fed remains "accommodative").