Monday, January 4, 2016

Why The FED Should Not Raise Rates Further

When it comes to credit, they are called “junk bonds” for a reason. These are bonds of companies that rest on a knife-edge between solvency and bankruptcy. The slightest hiccup can create a disaster for these companies, so oil companies that borrowed excessively thinking that crude oil prices would never fall below $60 a barrel are suffering the consequences.

What is worse is that credit deterioration is seeping into the banking system. Today Wells Fargo Bank said that “stresses” are building in its portfolio of loans to energy companies because of the drop in the price of oil, which is another reason the Fed may choose to avoid hiking rates.

The best reason for the Fed not to raise rates is the U.S. government’s own debt load. This is why I have been saying for years that rates will never go up. The U.S. government has so much debt it cannot afford to pay a fair rate of interest.