Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized, and the future track and intensity of the storm remain highly uncertain. The center has jumped several times over the past 12 hours, and now lies exposed to view, west of the main area of heavy thunderstorms. Radar animations out of Martinique show little organization of the echoes, and satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands or upper-level outflow. Wind shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin diagnose a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Erika, a decrease from yesterday. SSTs are warm, 29°C. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have found a slight increase in the surface winds, up to 45 mph. They noted that the surface center was displaced 12 miles north of the center they found at 1500 feet, which is the sign of a disorganized storm undergoing wind shear.

The forecast for ErikaErika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the storm's current state of disorganization is allowing the center to make random jumps as it reforms near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This makes for a low-confidence forecast. The future track of the storm will depend upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. The intensity forecast models did a poor job with Tropical Storm Danny last week, and appear to be repeating that poor performance with Erika. All of the major intensity forecast models predict substantial strengthening of Erika. This seems unlikely to occur, given the storm's current disorganization, and the predicted increase in wind shear along the path of Erika to 20 - 25 knots 3 - 5 days from now. The more southerly than expected track of the storm also brings the possibility that Erika will encounter the high mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The GFS, GFDL, and Canadian models predict Erika will pass near Puerto Rico on Friday, then move over Hispaniola on Saturday. Erika in its current weak state would probably not survive an encounter with these islands. A wide range of scenarios is still possible for Erika, from outright dissipation (as forecast by the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF models) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Erika is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast if it is still around five days from now. Potential landfall locations range from Florida on Tuesday to North Carolina on Wednesday. The NOGAPS model has Erika potentially missing the U.S. entirely, scooting northwards between North Carolina and Bermuda. My current expectation is that Erika will dissipate on Saturday when it encounters Hispaniola.

Figure 1. Afternoon image of Tropical Storm Erika. The swirl of clouds just west of Guadeloupe island is the center. This center was what I had labeled a "false center" in this morning's post, and has taken over as the main center this afternoon.

Hurricane Jimena hits BajaHurricane Jimena made lanndfall on Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this morning near Cabo San Lazaro as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Jimena is the 2nd strongest hurricane to hit Baja's west coast since record keeping began in 1949. The only stronger storm was Hurricane Norbert, which made landfall in 2008 on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph. Jimena has now weakened to a Category 1 storm, and will continue to weaken as it hits colder waters and interacts with land. No deaths or major damage have been reported from the storm.

California fire webcamsAs I discussed in yesterday morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

All, the COC is not relocating. It is almost in same spot called on, and posted by the Dr. earlier today. Just click on the Martinique Radar link the Dr. posted, and you can clearly see the storms descending upon the almost stationary semi circle center west of Guadeloupe. Animate, and the storms appear to be wrapping around this center.

Latest sat does look like the center of all her energy is going to pass just south of PR and right over the middle of Hisp. PR does have some 3900 foot mtns. and usually does muck up the storms a bit as they pass over, but she'll probably be a bit more to the south than required for that effect. Well at least shes not a hurricane, and maybe even not a tropical storm. I can sleep. Nite all. Richard

Quoting scottsvb:why dont you guys just watch the radar? You can clearly see the center just off the west coast of Guadalope around 16.2N and 62.1W movement is a drift NNW... the midlevel rainshield has just caught up to her...we will see if the pressure drops over the next few hours..but she does look alot better now then 4 hrs ago!

The center, or a center? I don't think the radar reaches to the other putative center.

Quoting scottsvb:why dont you guys just watch the radar? You can clearly see the center just off the west coast of Guadalope around 16.2N and 62.1W movement is a drift NNW... the midlevel rainshield has just caught up to her...we will see if the pressure drops over the next few hours..but she does look alot better now then 4 hrs ago!

Quoting scottsvb:why dont you guys just watch the radar? You can clearly see the center just off the west coast of Guadalope around 16.2N and 62.1W movement is a drift NNW... the midlevel rainshield has just caught up to her...we will see if the pressure drops over the next few hours..but she does look alot better now then 4 hrs ago!

Quoting KoritheMan:Even if Erika does manage to reform an LLC underneath the deep convection, she will not survive Hispaniola in her current state. It has been notorious for destroying major hurricanes, how much easier it will be for it to destroy a tropical storm.

why would she move over hispanola if she re develops her center further north?

why dont you guys just watch the radar? You can clearly see the center just off the west coast of Guadalope around 16.2N and 62.1W movement is a drift NNW... the midlevel rainshield has just caught up to her...we will see if the pressure drops over the next few hours..but she does look alot better now then 4 hrs ago!

Hi everyone,lurk here a lot, well, actually, most of the time. Always scroll back and check out everyone's opinions and input to the blog. Tonight, I just signed in after finishing up my fantasy football draft, and decided not to scroll back whatsoever. All I looked at was, the satellite loops on the NHC and came here right after. I see two balls of convection, and am impressed how they are very similar. Amazing storm this Erika has turned out to be. I guess I just wanted to say hello to all, and I hada good Draft... As far as Erika is concerned, wow, I must admit, the "joker" STORM we dealt with from a year or two ago may have a definite partner as far as what may happen down the line..., as far as forcasting this little girl. Keep up the the good work all you guys, just throwing in my 2 cents tonight. A couple of the ole lager gets me thinking at times.. I will honestly give my opinion on the future of Erika, She will probably dissipate with all of the negative influences in front of her, but, just never, ever,ever, say RIP, until officially gone, and away.

Quoting KoritheMan:Even if Erika does manage to reform an LLC underneath the deep convection, she will not survive Hispaniola in her current state. It has been notorious for destroying major hurricanes, how much easier it will be for it to destroy a tropical storm.

Quoting KoritheMan:Even if Erika does manage to reform an LLC underneath the deep convection, she will not survive Hispaniola in her current state. It has been notorious for destroying major hurricanes, how much easier it will be for it to destroy a tropical storm.

Or maybe Erika's game is just the ticket: fade to the left, pass to the right....

Have you looked at any satellite imagery in the past hour? I'm not doubting your reasoning at all but it looks like a new circulation is attempting to close off just north of the official circulation..in the northern half of the system.

Additional Information======================This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Southern Luzon, Visayas particularly the western sections.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Quoting PortABeachBum:Speaking of biological weather predictors - The PortABeachBums lost their short-term predictor "Roy" to a coyote 4 nights ago! Roy wasn't much good for hurricane prediction but was at the door scratching to get in when a rainstorm was eminent. Anyone know how to train a coyote?

If you say so, but most people will automatically discredit one who does not use evidence to back up his claims, like yourself.

Erika's circulation has become increasingly ill-defined today, as noted by surface observations from the islands, along with satellite imagery. QuikSCAT missed it earlier, but I imagine that had it caught it, the circulation would have been quite elongated. I am doubting if Erika has a closed surface circulation at this point.

Her only hope is to reform a new center underneath the deep convection.

Have you looked at any satellite imagery in the past hour? I'm not doubting your reasoning at all but it looks like a new circulation is attempting to close off just north of the official circulation..in the northern half of the system.

Even if Erika does manage to reform an LLC underneath the deep convection, she will not survive Hispaniola in her current state. It has been notorious for destroying major hurricanes, how much easier it will be for it to destroy a tropical storm.

If you say so, but most people will automatically discredit one who does not use evidence to back up his claims, like yourself.

Erika's circulation has become increasingly ill-defined today, as noted by surface observations from the islands, along with satellite imagery. QuikSCAT missed it earlier, but I imagine that had it caught it, the circulation would have been quite elongated. I am doubting if Erika has a closed surface circulation at this point.

Her only hope is to reform a new center underneath the deep convection.

I have no idea if you can predict weather with them, but DO NOT touch. There are a couple of kinds of caterpillars with fuzzies down here in tampa that make a fire ant sting feel like a pin prick in comparison, extraordinarily painful.

Speaking of biological weather predictors - The PortABeachBums lost their short-term predictor "Roy" to a coyote 4 nights ago! Roy wasn't much good for hurricane prediction but was at the door scratching to get in when a rainstorm was eminent. Anyone know how to train a coyote?

Quoting KerryInNOLA:Twins? There seems to be rotation in both N and S blob.

Yeah there does..for some reason i'm inclined to believe the northern blob will become the dominate circulation and again Erika will trick all forecasters. If this happens it would result in a major difference between dissipation and possibly a strong hurricane because Erika would avoid alot of land.