Category: Economic Recovery

Sunday, February 20, 2011

I am on yet another plane and writing, and I'll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week's letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott's conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what's going on in the world. We'll start with the Fed and interest rates, look at inflation, and see how far we get. And I might get a little controversial, but long-time readers know that is not all that unusual.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Chairman Bernanke's speech was drawn from his paper examining the nature of international capital flows prior to the global financial meltdown. The analysis is long on detail and useful for policymakers and research. More importantly, Bernanke indicated that the two speed global economy calls for different policies.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Recent events in Washington, D.C. should provoke fear and outrage in the average American worker. As the jobs recession staggers on, politicians and labor leaders alike seem bizarrely distanced from reality, unable to advance any ideas that remotely correspond to the basic demands of those tens of millions of unemployed, under-employed, or poorly paid workers.

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

The 2-year Treasury note is trading around 0.78% today, from a low of 0.54% on January 28. The 10-year Treasury note yield has moved up to 3.67% from 3.36% in the same period (see Chart 1). The bond market essentially signals the U.S. economy is turning around and is most likely to establish sustained growth in 2011. A part of the bullish sentiment commenced after Bernanke's speech in the last week of August 2010 when the Fed signaled that a second round of support was on its way.

Monday, January 31, 2011

It is only human to seek reasons for optimism, and to find comfort in self-delusion. “You’re going to be just fine,” is probably one of the most frequent lies told among family members when serious injury or illness occurs. We have to believe we’re going to be “just fine”, because the alternative is too painful, and painfully unacceptable.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 after slower growth in the second and third quarters of the year. In 2010, on an annual average basis, the economy grew 2.9% after a 2.6% decline in 2009 and a steady reading in 2008. The level of real GDP in the fourth quarter ($13,382.6 billion) exceeds the peak registered in the fourth quarter of 2007 ($13,363.5billion). Effectively, the economic recovery phase is history and the U.S. is on a path of economic expansion (see Chart 2).

Friday, January 28, 2011

The latest round of economic numbers continues to impress Wall Street and is keeping hopes of a continued economic recovery alive. Many observers question, however, if perhaps the Fed is taking the recovery too far, too fast.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales for December increased 17.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 329,000 units. This was above the consensus rate of 300,000 units and traders jumped into stocks on the news. The 17.5% increase comes following the 5.5% gain that occurred in November.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Jason Simpkins writes:
The U.S. unemployment rate may still be high, but that hasn't stopped consumer spending from rallying. And in contrast to the darkest days of the financial crisis, when discount retailers like Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) ruled the day, luxury brands have been doing the heavy lifting.

Indeed, bolstered by the extension of the Bush tax cuts and strong demand in Asia, luxury brands are coming back into style.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

In the Bible there is a reference to a “sin unto death.” In the realm of U.S. economic policy a situation is developing that could easily lead to a “death” of the current recovery. Ironically, this brewing economic destruction is springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a “recovery unto death”). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a “new tomorrow” but as we’ll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Retail sales increased 0.6% in December after a 0.8% gain in the prior month. Building materials (+2.0%), autos (+1.0%), gasoline (+1.6%), and furniture (+1.0%) accounted for the relatively large gains among the components, while purchases of food (-0.6%), electronics (-0.6%) and clothing (-0.2%) dropped. Unit auto sales count in the computation of consumer spending in the GDP report, which advanced to annual rate of 12.5 million units in December. Autos sales rose 29% in the final three months of the year compared with a 0.3% gain in the third quarter.

Friday, January 07, 2011

While the markets have known for almost three months that the 2010 election delivered the House of Representatives to the tea-infused Republican Party, I did expect a greater reaction on Wall Street to the formalities of the opening sessions of Congress yesterday.

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

The U.S. manufacturing sector closed the year on a strong footing and kicked off 2011 with bullish news on the first trading. The ISM manufacturing composite index moved up to 57.0 in December vs. 56.6 in November, the highest reading since May 2010. The sharp increases in indexes tracking new orders (60.9 vs. 56. 6 in November) and production (60.7 vs. 55 in November) accounted for the higher composite index in December. Indexes measuring employment, vendor deliveries, inventories, exports and imports declined in December but are holding above 50.0. Readings above 50 denote an expansion while those below 50.0 are indicative of a contraction.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) posted a solid 1.1% gain in November after a revised 0.4% increase in October. The LEI has risen at an annual rate of 8.7% in the three months ended November compared with a 0.4% gain during the previous three months (ending August). The accelerated increase of the LEI implies continued growth of the economy and at a stronger pace compared with the trend seen in recent months. The possibility of a double-dip discussed frequently in the summer months is almost irrelevant now.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Construction of new homes increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 555,000 in November, following an 11.1% drop in the previous month. Starts of single-family units advanced 6.9% in November to an annual rate of 465,000. The November level of single-family starts is marginally above the three-month moving average of single-family starts (see Chart 1), which suggests that stronger gains are necessary before we declare that home construction activity is out of the woods. Multi-family starts fell 9.1% in November, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

The trade deficit narrowed to $38.7 billion in October from a gap of $44.6 billion in the prior month. The 3.2% increase in exports of goods and services and a 0.5% decline in imports of goods and services brought about a narrowing of the trade gap in October. Overall, this reading is a big plus for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

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