Thoughts on Life, Love, Politics, Hypocrisy and Coming Out in Mid-Life

Monday, May 07, 2018

California: A Cautionary Tale for the Virginia GOP

The Virginia GOP 2018 lineup of extremists primary candidates.

In last year's gubernatorial race, Ed Gillespie in the end ran a campaign based of racism and religious extremism with an added dash of tax cuts for the wealthy. He lost by 9 points. In this year's U.S. Senate race, all three Republican candidates for the Virginia GOP nomination are extremists and at least one, if not two, of them, in my opinion, needs a mental health intervention. Cory Stewart is running on a neo-Confederate platform, E.W. Jackson is unhinged, thus leaving Nick Freitas looking at least slightly sane in comparison. However, given the rabid dog nature of the GOP base nowadays, it is all to possible that the most extreme candidate could walk away with the nomination, much to the delight of Democrat incumbent, Tim Kaine. A cautionary tale for the Virginia GOP can be found in California where there is a possibility that the California GOP may not even be able to field statewide candidates this year. Part of the reason is due to California's unique nomination process, but a larger part is the GOP's extremism. A piece in the New York Times should be required reading for leaders of the Virginia GOP. Here are excerpts:

For anyone
wondering about the state of the Republican Party in California these days,
consider this: There may be no Republican candidate for governor or United
States senator on the state’s ballot this November.

It’s no secret the state’s Republican Party has been in a decline for
20 years. Its challenges have been aggravated by the election of President
Trump, as he has pushed tougher policies on such issues as immigration and the
environment, running up against strong and often bipartisan sentiment in
California.

A field of Republican
candidates for the United States Senate and governor is struggling against
these headwinds as they seek to end a more than 10-year drought and elect a
party member to statewide office. Under the California election system,
candidates compete in an open, nonpartisan primary on June 5. The two
candidates who get the most votes — regardless of party — advance to the
November general election.

If Republicans
fall short in capturing one of those two November slots next month, which
members of both parties say is a strong possibility, it would apparently be the
first election since 1914 where a major party had no candidate in either the
race for senator or for governor.

“You would think
that if Republicans are shut out, it will be time for some serious
soul-searching.”

Two of the most
powerful Republican members of the congressional leadership represent central
California: Kevin McCarthy, a close ally of Mr. Trump, who is in line to become
the next speaker should Republicans hold the House this November, and Devin
Nunes, the chairman of the House intelligence committee. Both are popular in
their districts and wield plenty of influence in Washington.

But the Republican Party holds no statewide offices. Democrats control
both houses of the State Legislature. Party registration is on the decline. And
one of the potential Republican candidates for Senate who some polls suggest
has at least a theoretical shot of making it to the November ballot is Patrick
Little, an extremist who has called for the country to be “free
from Jews.”

There have been hard-line
strains in the California Republican Party for years, centered around law and
order, taxes and immigration issues. But this is also a state with a moderate
wing.

A group of
Republicans led by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former Republican governor, and
Chad Mayes, the former Republican Assembly leader, have begun a campaign to
move the party to the center . . . But that effort has run up against
Republican candidates and elected officials who have tied their success to Mr.
Trump and his administration’s policies.

“Arnold
Schwarzenegger and Republicans like Mayes are completely wrong,” Travis Allen,
a Republican candidate for governor and member of the Assembly, said in an
interview.

The
division over the future of the party was on full display the other night at a
forum sponsored by the North Orange County Republican Women’s Federated Dinner
for Mr. Allen and another Republican candidate for governor, John Cox, a
businessman — the only two Republicans in a very crowded field who appear to
have a chance to capture one of the top two spots in the primary.

A
few moments later, both candidates told the moderator that they firmly
supported Mr. Trump’s call to build a wall along the Mexican border. . . . Mr.
Mayes, who was ousted as the Republican leader of the State Assembly after he
negotiated a Republican vote-delivering compromise with Gov. Jerry Brown, a
Democrat, on legislation to curb greenhouse emissions, said that sentiment
threatened to further distance the party from voters.

Mr.
Mayes added. “We need to come to grips with reality and understand the
electorate in California has changed. We have to go to them. We are not going
to win elections until we figure that out.”

The
prospect that there may be no Republican candidate for Senate or governor this
November casts both short-term and long-term threats for the party.

For
this election, it could complicate efforts to draw Republicans to the polls in
a year when Democrats are looking to oust as many as seven endangered
Republican members of Congress. . . . For the long term, it is a reminder of
just how little influence the party has statewide. Republicans failed to win a
spot on the 2016 ballot for Senate as well.

One of the key points of contention with the Republican Party in the
state is immigration. It has been a complication for Republicans since
California voters passed an initiative pushed by the Republican governor, Pete
Wilson, in 1994 to prohibit illegal immigrants from getting state social
services. That initiative, which was thrown out in court, was seen as one of
the critical reasons for the party’s decline, as the Latino population in this
state has continued to grow, and as California became more Democratic.

Trump
himself has emerged as a critical issue as Republicans try to chart a path
forward. Mr. Trump lost California by nearly four million votes, and he remains
consistently unpopular overall. But he is popular with Republican primary
voters, and candidates have lined up behind him.

Frankly, until the GOP ejects many of the Christian extremists and white supremacists from its base, I see little changing. Hopefully, in both California and Virginia, 2018 will be a bad year for Republicans.

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Out gay attorney in a committed relationship; formerly married and father of three wonderful children; sometime activist and political/news junkie; survived coming out in mid-life and hope to share my experiences and reflections with others.
In the career/professional realm, I am affiliated with Caplan & Associates PC where I practice in the areas of real estate, estate planning (Wills, Trusts, Advanced Medical Directives, Financial Powers of Attorney, Durable Medical Powers of Attorney); business law and commercial transactions; formation of corporations and limited liability companies and legal services to the gay, lesbian and transgender community, including birth certificate amendment.

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