by Chrissie Thompson, The Cincinnati Enquirer

by Chrissie Thompson, The Cincinnati Enquirer

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Is 2014 the year Ohio puts same-sex marriage on the ballot?

Not if national gay rights advocates have their way.

On Thursday, a coalition of Equality Ohio and several national gay rights groups officially decided it could not support efforts by some Ohioans to put gay marriage on the ballot as soon as this fall.

Support likely won't be high enough to guarantee a win for same-sex marriage until 2016, the groups say, naming that as their official target date for a ballot initiative. To get on the ballot, they'll have to start afresh gathering hundreds of thousands of signatures, because they've also decided they won't support the same-sex marriage amendment that another group, FreedomOhio, has been circulating since 2012. For now, they're focusing on changing Ohioans' minds through holding town hall meetings and identifying community members who can share stories.

A same-sex marriage loss "would be a major setback, not just for Ohio, but for the movement, because there are many other states similarly situated," said Elyzabeth Holford, executive director of Equality Ohio. "We can't fall down on the job."

But FreedomOhio won't back down, Executive Director Ian James told The Enquirer. The group now has enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, and Ohioans support their amendment's exemption for religious institutions, James said. If they can get enough money, they'll put the question to Ohio voters in November.

"We'll win without them," said James, a Columbus campaign strategist.

Equality Ohio was founded after Ohio overwhelming passed its same-sex marriage ban in 2004. But seven years later, in 2012, gay marriage was still illegal in Ohio. Frustrated with what he viewed as a lack of action, James helped start FreedomOhio and began gathering the 385,000 signatures needed to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot.

Equality Ohio has worked with national groups such as the Human Rights Campaign that have helped run and finance successful same-sex marriage ballot campaigns in other states. Their partners and attorneys say James' amendment has flaws in it that could lead to long court battles.

At the heart of the groups' split has always been a disagreement over polling. In 2012, Equality Ohio and its national partners didn't think Ohio was ready for a ballot initiative â?? a stance they continue to hold.

When Ohioans are asked about their feelings on same-sex marriage, support is in the 47 percent range. That needs to rise to the mid-50s among likely voters before Equality Ohio and its partners would go to the ballot. The most likely year is 2016, when a presidential election may draw more liberal voters than this year's gubernatorial election, Premo said.

"We don't run to lose. We wait to win. And we have to determine the right time to do that," Premo said.

But James cites two polls from 2013 that show support for his amendment among Ohioans is hovering at 52 percent to 54 percent when respondents find out about its religious exemption.

Equality Ohio executives say a gay-marriage ballot initiative will face waves of contrasting arguments from opponents of gay unions. Only if a majority of Ohioans already support same-sex marriage will an amendment pass, they say.

The Equality Ohio decision leaves James without hope of receiving any national money to help with his ballot initiative. He estimates his group would need at least $12 million to run a campaign if his amendment got on the ballot, and it currently has $23,000 on hand. Whether FreedomOhio can raise the money will determine whether the amendment goes on the ballot in 2014, James said. FreedomOhio's leadership will make that decision this spring.

FreedomOhio has had 62,000 people sign up to help with its campaign, and it's already gathered more than 650,000 signatures. James says the ballot campaign would save money by targeting likely supporters. He believes the opposition to gay marriage is disorganized compared with 2004, when Ohio voters passed a gay marriage ban 62 percent to 38 percent.

But Sharonville-based Citizens for Community Values, the conservative group behind the 2004 ban, says it has built its network to 10,000 churches. Evangelical Christians are worried about what schools will teach children about same-sex attraction and fear churches will eventually be forced to perform same-sex marriages, said leader Phil Burres. "The turnout from the evangelicals will be massive," he said. "It doesn't matter what year it is. This is not about same-sex marriage anymore. This is about forcing their will on everyone else."

Without national partners, James and his allies won't raise the money they need to defeat opposition from groups like Citizens for Community Values, Premo said. And national groups need a guaranteed win before they're willing to step in.

For Ohioans aligned with James, the issue is too personal to heed national groups' calls to wait.

"When we step off the plane at home in Ohio, we want to make sure we have marriage equality," James said. "There's always a chance of failure. That doesn't mean that you don't prepare to win."