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BLOOMINGTON – For the fourth-straight year, Indiana has brought itself within one win of bowl eligibility with games remaining.

A win from this weekend’s trip to Michigan might be too much to ask, but at worst, IU will face rival Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket game with a postseason berth on the table.

Where could the Hoosiers wind up, should they reach six wins? The Big Ten bowl picture is muddied such that there’s not a perfect answer to that question. In fact, with two games remaining and one win required, Indiana’s potential bowl destinations are thoroughly uncertain.

Setting the bowl scene

Not counting the College Football Playoff, the Big Ten has nine guaranteed bowl tie-ins.

It can send extra teams to the New Year’s Six bowls if they qualify, which would thin the field behind them. But at the moment, the conference only has two teams, Michigan and Ohio State, positioned to land either in the playoff or the New Year’s Six. Penn State could find its way in with some good fortune, and Northwestern could upset the apple cart with a surprise win in the Big Ten title game.

But as things stand, the Big Ten is on course to land just two teams in that elite tier of bowls. It would mark the conference’s lowest representation in the Playoff and New Year’s Six combined in four years.

There’s some room for maneuver in there, but that’s the basic structure.

*Having taken a Music City Bowl berth in each of the last two seasons, the Big Ten will almost certainly send a team to the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville this year. It rotates a berth in those games with the ACC.

A realistic estimate would probably only see two of those five reach bowl eligibility, maybe three.

Maryland has five wins but finishes with Ohio State and Penn State. Illinois still has Iowa and Northwestern to play, but only has four wins, thus needing both of those games. Should neither IU (at Michigan) nor Purdue (home to Wisconsin) win this weekend, then the Hoosiers and Boilermakers will face off with bowl eligibility on the line on the last Saturday of the season. Minnesota still has Northwestern and Wisconsin left.

In short, none of those five looks like a shoo-in — the league is only guaranteed one will reach six wins. The possibility of so many going into the last game of the season with a bowl still possible makes projecting the bottom of the Big Ten field difficult.

Nationally, there are currently 64 teams eligible for 78 bowl slots, with 22 more within one win of a bowl with two weeks remaining. Therefore, the potential for 5-7 bowl teams doesn’t look likely right now.

IU’s options

Here’s where it gets complicated.

First, an important caveat: The number of teams the Big Ten will send to the Playoff and the New Year’s Six is unknown, and sending three would change this field significantly, as opposed to only sending two.

But the conference can probably count on two right now, Ohio State and Michigan. That would leave Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State and Wisconsin to be sorted among the Citrus, Outback, Holiday, Gator/Music City and Pinstripe Bowls.

If IU surprised the league and won both of its remaining games, it could jump into that aforementioned mix. If Penn State finds its way into the New Year’s Six, it would bump everyone up a slot. It’s also possible some already bowl-eligible teams could finish 6-6, further complicating the calculus.

Let’s assume for the sake of this discussion IU is one of those 6-6 teams.

That would likely bring either a return trip (Pinstripe or San Francisco Bowls) into play, or it would mean Detroit, and the Quick Lane Bowl. The First Responders Bowl is also a more distant possibility.

Going back to New York or San Francisco would certainly be possible. Bowls prefer to avoid repeats, but they aren’t unheard of, and IU draws particularly well in New York. Detroit would be the option if the league wanted to send the Hoosiers somewhere new. Indiana has never played in the bowl game there.

Final word

There’s too much dust left to settle to make a specific prediction at this point. And IU faces the possibility of entering each of its last two games as an underdog, still needing that sixth victory.

Win one, and New York, San Francisco and Detroit look like the realistic options. Win both, and the Gator Bowl comes into play.