Can Democrats keep Wisconsin blue?

Charlotte, N.C. -- With all the painful defeats Democrats have suffered in Wisconsin over the past two years, there’s one place left in electoral politics where they’re still king.

The party hasn’t lost a presidential contest in the state since 1984.

But even that run of dominance seems in question now, with polls showing a tightening race after home-state congressman Paul Ryan joined the GOP ticket.

That leaves Wisconsin Democrats in a familiar place: on the front lines of American politics, hoping to arrest the Republican tide in their state.

“I think it’s going to be a real battle, (but) Democrats are not taking anything for granted,” says Margaret Wood of La Crosse, part of the Wisconsin delegation at this week's Democratic National Convention.

That’s seems like a fair assessment, though some Republicans believe Obama’s advantage has disappeared completely four years after he won Wisconsin by 14 points.

Averaging recent state polls gives the incumbent a very small edge, well within the margin of error.

Mitt Romney’s pollster, Neil Newhouse, calls Wisconsin a “toss-up.”

Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, goes further, arguing that it’s his side that has the upper hand in Wisconsin now.

“You’ve got to think that we’re favored,” Priebus said in an interview Monday. “Just with the momentum we’ve brought into Wisconsin (and) the fact that Paul’s on the ticket. I think we’ve proven we're pretty good at figuring out how to win there. I think it’s ten electoral votes we’ve got to be able to put in our back pocket.”

But however you rank the state, both sides agree it has become a much more alluring target for Republicans, because of Ryan’s selection and because of the massive upside of flipping Wisconsin from blue to red: it gives Romney many more paths to an electoral majority.

Without Wisconsin, Romney has to win almost all the key contested states. If Romney loses Ohio, where he has trailed in the polls, winning Wisconsin is a virtual necessity.

“Expanding the electoral playing field with the addition of Wisconsin as a toss-up state provides our ticket with significantly more flexibility to get to 270 electoral votes,” says Newhouse, the Romney pollster.

“It gives us a lot of options. You piece together Iowa or Colorado with Wisconsin and all of a sudden, you’ve got something pretty nice to work with,” said Priebus.

“I guess I can’t blame (Republicans) for feeling emboldened” in Wisconsin, said House Democrat Gwen Moore of Milwaukee, citing Gov. Walker’s recall victory and Ryan’s addition to the ticket.

“I think those ten electoral votes are very, very precious to them,” because “they have a very narrow, narrow, narrow path” to majority, said Moore.

While it’s widely assumed that Ryan’s home-state impact was not the driving factor in his selection by Romney, Madison-based Democratic pollster Paul Maslin questions that.

“I think they wanted to put Wisconsin in play, and so far they’ve done it,” said Maslin, who also polls for Ryan’s Democratic congressional opponent, Rob Zerban. “You can’t ignore that, because without Wisconsin they have … no room for error.”

At a panel here organized by the National Journal, a group of Democratic pollsters was asked which handful of states they envision the presidential candidates visiting on the crucial last day of campaigning this November.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake named Ohio, Colorado and Wisconsin.

“What’s interesting is that Wisconsin has gotten more into play because of Ryan on the ticket,” she said.

Asked if the state’s competitiveness surprised her, Lake said: “Not if you went through the recall of Scott Walker as we did with labor. It’s a very swing state.”

In an interview Tuesday, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said: “I think a strong Republican set of leaders have been able to push Wisconsin into a competitive place … I don’t know that it’s enough for Romney. But right now, since Romney is still struggling to craft a (winning) map, any change is helpful.”

Obama spokesman LaBolt suggested any Ryan boost in Wisconsin is going to fade when voters learn more about his record and the budget policies he’s proposed, including an overhaul of Medicare.

“Most voters across the state don’t know much about him or his plans yet,” said LaBolt. “As they become more familiar with them, I think proximity will be less important than what his plans are.”

Some Democrats in Charlotte argue Wisconsin is a political mirage for Republicans that will once again prove elusive for their presidential ticket.

“I hope they spend quite a bit of time trying to win a state like Wisconsin that we won by 14 points (last time) … because that means they won’t be putting their resources elsewhere. Because we’re going to win Wisconsin,” said Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

In fact, neither candidate has truly committed their resources to Wisconsin so far. Both sides tout their field organizations in the state. But Wisconsin wasn’t a consensus top-tier battleground until recently, and neither candidate has targeted the state in his TV advertising.

Democrats have pointed to the lack of television ads by Romney as a sign Republican aren’t fully sold on their chances of winning the state. Republicans have pointed to Obama’s personal absence from the state (only one visit this year) to suggest Democrats are taking Wisconsin for granted.

But all that’s expected to change soon.

“You’re not gong to see us spare a whole lot” in Wisconsin, RNC chairman Priebus said of his home state.

“By the time we get to November, they’ll see plenty of the President,” former senator Russ Feingold, a co-chair of the Obama campaign, said of Wisconsin voters. “I don’t think anyone is going to see it as being taken for granted.”