John Key is expected to win an historic fourth term but then hand over the prime ministership to Paula Bennett by the end of 2017, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. All current ministers expect trade minister Tim Groser are expected to remain ministers until the end of the year, with Murray McCully and Nick Smith currently the most vulnerable. Judith Collins is expected to be re-appointed a minister before the next election. Growth and unemployment forecasts have worsened and two cuts to the Official Cash Rate are expected by the end of the year. Andrew Little appears safe as leader of the Labour Party.

New Zealand Politics:

·John Key is expected to remain National leader until the end of 2016 (89% probability, steady compared with last week) and has just a 69% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day (up from 48% last week). Mr Key has just a 17% probability of remaining National leader until the end of 2017 (down from 19% last week)

·Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (76% probability, up from 75% last week) and has a 77% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day (down from 79% last week). Mr Little has a 54% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 56% last week)

·NZ First has a 77% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (up from 76% last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 55% probability it will back National on confidence in supply (up from 50% last week), a 43% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (down from 50% last week) and a 2% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (up from 0%)

·Andy Burnham is favourite to be the next leader of the UK Labour Party (52% probability, steady compared with last week), ahead of Liz Kendall (23%, down from 32%) and Yvette Cooper (17%, up from 15%)

·UK expected to vote to stay in EU by end of 2018 (75% probability, steady compared with last week)

·Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (67% probability, steady compared with last week)

·All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (23% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, up from 21% last week). There is only a 40% probability of a departure by the end of 2017 (up from 38% last week)

·Liberals ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (69% probability of Liberal win, up from 63% last week)

·Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (50% probability, up from 49% last week). Jeb Bush has a 40% probability of being the Republican nominee (up from 33% last week) followed by Marco Rubio (23%, steady) and Scott Walker (22%, up from 20%)

Selwyn Manning, BCS (Hons.) MCS (Hons.) is an investigative political journalist with 23 years media experience. He specializes in reportage and analysis of socioeconomics, politics, foreign affairs, and security/intelligence issues.
Selwyn has extensive experience as a commentator and has provided live political analysis to a wide range of television and radio organizations broadcasting in New Zealand, Australia and globally including the BBC (Five Live, London) and BBC (World Service). He is currently a correspondent to Australia's FiveAA radio, and is a regular live-on-air panelist on Radio New Zealand's The Panel with broadcaster Jim Mora.