Stuff

ComRes’s monthly poll for the Daily Mail is out, topline voting intention figures are CON 40%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%. The poll also asked about military intervention in Syria. By 56% to 33% people supported British airstrikes against ISIS in Syria and while the public are opposed to sending British group troops against ISIS, it’s less overwhelming than most of the polls I’ve seen in recent years that have broached the topic of sending British ground troops into conflicts – 49% are opposed, 41% would support. Tabs are here.

In The Times story Leslie, Coaker, Reynolds and Shabana Mahmood are named. Cooper, Kendall (who currently only attends shadow cabinet) and Hunt have already ruled themselves out I think. I assume Harman intends to retire from the frontbench when the she leaves the deputy leadership. So that’s eight. I’m pretty sure Ivan Lewis (another Liz backer) would also be out (he may be out anyway as he’s not guaranteed to be asked I wouldn’t have thought).

Hilary Benn is interesting. If he stays he could be well placed to end up being the Michael Howard figure to hold things together until 2020.

The flouncing strategy is an interesting one. I realise they disagree with Corbyn’s direction of travel and they’re hoping his leadership would soon fall apart, but I wonder how they think Brown and Blair would have gained the prominence to lead the party if they’d refused to serve under Kinnock.

Plus I can’t be the only person who disagrees with Corbyn but who would refuse on principle to back any of the refusniks in a subsequent leadership bid.

People talk about austerity being responsible for Attlee and the Labour Party losing power in 1951, but let’s not forget that actually Labour recorded its highest vote ever that year and in fact received over one million votes more than the Tories.

I do not accept the argument that a defeated party must change its policies in order to have any chance of success at future elections. There is also the possibility that due to changed circumstances the electorate will move towards the party that lost the previous election. As an example I have long believed that Labour would have been comfortably elected in 1997 had it simply fought on a repeat of its 1992 manifesto – because over the intervening five years such policies had become more acceptable to the electorate at large.
The SNP’s platform of Independence was rejected by the electorate of Scotland repeatedly at general elections over many decades but that did not lead the party to abandon its programme. Eventually its persistence has been rewarded!

Norbold
‘People talk about austerity being responsible for Attlee and the Labour Party losing power in 1951, but let’s not forget that actually Labour recorded its highest vote ever that year and in fact received over one million votes more than the Tories’

If the National Liberals as Tory unopposed allies are included in the Tory total Labour’s lead was circa 230,000.

Yvette Cooper has not said she would not serve in a Corbyn shadow cabinet, only that she would not stand in elections.

Shadow Cabinet elections were abolished in 2011.

The 8 who have supposedly said they will not serve under Corbyn are probably all people who would not be selected anyway. The winner, whoever they turn out to be, will be pretty much certain to cut out a lot of dead wood.

Rawnsley in the Guardian is interesting -“Labour is really two parties. And they simply can’t stand each other”

Neil Kinnock ” cautioned that “it won’t be enough to protest … our proposals for action must be able to attract votes from the breadth of the British people”.

And he warned that some of Mr Corbyn’s support may be coming from the “Trotskyite left and the Telegraph right” who are backing the veteran left-winger for “their own malign purposes” rather than out of Labour’s best interests.”

Jack Sheldon
Corbyn’s problem with the PLP is fascinating. I do think its quite astonishing that many (including my own MP) would likely be of the variety that would kick up all sorts of fuss (if not resign) if Corbyn was elected despite the local Labour party backing Corbyn and the constituents likely rejoicing at the prospect of a Corbyn government.
In fact this last election arguably demonstrates how left wing Labour’s core vote actually is. There were big swings to Labour in most of their safest seats (primarily at the expense of the Lib Dems) and despite some strong Green performances. I do think its fairly disappointing when an MP has views so detached from their constituents and local activist base (a relic of New Labour I’m afraid)

As for those who would support Corbyn I think the list is quite a bit bigger. They may not have nominated him but the likes of Dawn Butler, David Anderson, Marie Rimmer, Angela Rayner, Daniel Zeichner, David Winnick, Sadiq Khan, Peter Dowd, Mary Glindon, Rob Marris, Ian Mearns, Jo Stevens, Paula Sheriff and Tulip Siddiq would all probably be quite happy to see Corbyn as leader (note a significant number of these are new arrivals from 2015)

In a city of about 450,000, a turnout of about 1,000-1,300 on a Saturday evening at a TUC organised rally (for JC) at a hotel is an indication of the orientation.

However, while Liverpool Labour as a whole is quite on the left, a sizeable proportion is quite rightwing. When settling here 20 odd years ago, I felt it was my obligation to study the city’s history. Labour in Liverpool has traditionally been more to the right than the national party (but a large radical group too – Militant didn’t come from nothing), and you can still find them if you walk towards Great Homer street or Lower Breck road (a kind of anarchist rightwing labour voters).

I’m having 1980s flashbacks… Ironically a few of the Blairites in Islington were trying to get rid of Corbyn on those ground before 2001!

I wouldn’t view quiet, principled backbench opposition to the leadership as reasonable grounds for deselection, though. I just feel it disqualifies someone from the leadership on the grounds that the Labour Party exists to influence policy by winning power, not by shouting from opposition, and that principle should apply as much within the party as it does outside it.

Or slightly more relevantly to this discussion, Ukip vs. John Redwood.

And Ed Miliband actually achieved a great deal by shouting from opposition. This current budget has several of his policies in it. Nevertheless, I can’t help but feel he would have achieved more as Prime Minister.

I also note that Ukip was able to extract a European referendum and Miliband to extract £8 billion in NHS funding precisely because the Tories feared they would cost them the election. If Corbyn can’t pose a credible threat to their majority, he’ll be as effective as Labour were at stopping the pit closures in the 80s.

Laszlo
Personally I think Liverpool (indeed most of Merseyside)has been taken for granted by Labour, a source of safe seats fro Blairites and centrists when the people here would still vote Labour even if they stood on a Communist platform.

I understand that Richard Burgon, Michael Meacher and Kelvin Hopkins are knowledgeable Keynesians. I imagine that all three know considerably more about economics than Alan Johnson and Alistair Darling when they were appointed Shadow Chancellor.

Yes, I think that list of mostly Burnham backers who would serve under Corbyn is about right. I’d add Louise Haigh – I think she’s really one to watch based on what I’ve seen so far. Young, punchy but prepared to engage in proper policy debate. Already very active in the House – was the first 2015 intake to have an adjournment debate (on teacher recruitment), has raised points of order and put down her own amendments in committee to the Education Bill (most experienced backbenchers don’t even do that). She describes herself as a socialist and rebelled on welfare. During the aforementioned Education and Adoption Bill ctte. stage she moved a ‘New Clause 4’ and joked that she rather liked the old clause 4.

Multilateral and unilateral disarmament very different (the Tories in theory support the former) but we’ll see should Corbyn be elected.

This could be the most difficult issue for Corbyn. Most centrist Labour people are dead against unilateral disarmament but Corbyn’s been so vociferously in favour for so long I’m not sure he could possibly do anything other than make it Labour policy not to renew Trident.

The headline comment from Curtis in that article -that ” a majority in 2020 is ‘improbable’ for Labour brings to mind the interesting piece by
Kieran Pedley on pb.

He too cautions as Curtice does , and concludes that a move to the left under Corbyn will make that nore likely. But he recounts a view from a number of Labour MPs that :-““The thing you have to understand Keiran is that none of them can win anyway, so we might as well vote for Jeremy Corbyn”.

Depends if they cherish independence over left-wing policies. I’d posit that they don’t, otherwise they would’ve voted for independence in the sort of numbers they do for leftist parties. You could just as easily ask if they want socialist or socialist-lite.

I shall have to read Pedley’s (and Rawnley’s, to see what you’re on about) piece, but I find Curtice’s pretty compelling. The sort of swings needed without those Scottish seats are deeply improbable and don’t even factor in the incoming unfavourable boundary review.

Jack Sheldon and Lizh
Interesting discussion on a Corbyn shadow Cabinet so I’ll throw my own thoughts out there.

Leader – Corbyn (Obviously)

Deputey Leader Tom Watson (Obviously that’s not up to Corbyn but Watson’s the favourite and he could definitely work with Corbyn)

Shadow Chancellor – Angela Eagle (Doubtful, no offence to her but I think she lacks the “umph” to hold one of the four main offices of state, too softly spoken. Weird as it might sound I think he’d pick Burnham)

Shadow Foreign Secretary – Hilary Benn (Almost certainly)

Shadow Home Secretary – Jon Trickett (Possibly, Trickett would almost certainly get something but I’m not sure it would be the Home Office, Work and Pensions maybe?)

Shadow Justice Secretary – Andy Macdonald (Doubtful, McDonald would get something but I personally think if he doesn’t get nominated as Labour’s mayoral candidate (which I doubt he will) this will go to Sadiq Khan)

Shadow Education Secretary – Louise Haigh (Had a look at her and its definitely possible, her or Dawn Butler)

Shadow Business Secretary – Stella Creasy (If she’s willing to definitely but she might not want to serve in a Corbyn government, if not I have no idea)

Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary – Owen Smith (Him or Trickett)

Shadow Defence Secretary – Clive Lewis (I actually think Corbyn is smart enough to realise Dan Jarvis’s potential and will literally plead with him to take this role, Lewis on the other hand is too inexperienced to risk with one of the big four)

Shadow Transport Secretary – John McDonnell (Can’t see this personally I don’t think the PLP would stand for it (he might as well elect Skinner as Home Secretary and Russell Brand as Chancellor) I think he’d go for someone more moderate like Lisa Nandy)

Shadow Communities Secretary – Rosie Winterton (Probably, he might try to bring Diane Abbot back to the front bench with this one though)

Shadow Energy Secretary – Cat Smith (I actually think he’d try to get Ed Milliband to do this, Corbyn has said he’d like to find a place for Milliband in his cabinet)

Shadow Environment Secretary – Lucy Powell (Even that’s too good for her, she’s really done herself no favours in her short time in parliament. personally I think Cat Smith or Tulip Siddiq would get this, both left wing enough, both have huge potential and have been described as rising stars but both new intakes with zero experience thus a lesser cabinet role is appropriate)
.
Shadow Leader of the House – Maria Eagle (Possibly although I personally think Chris Bryant would be brilliant in that role)

Shadow International Development Secretary – Rushanara Ali (Agree)

Shadow Culture Secretary – Chris Bryant (Assuming he’s not doing something else then yes if he is then Gloria De Piero probably)

Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury – Kelvin Hopkins (Would be his first choice but again the PLP wouldn’t allow it, he’d probably settle for Rachel Reeves assuming she’d be willing)

Liverpool’s Labour grandees came out with a full support for AB. It is not particularly interesting, what is interesting: the missing signatories. I can’t make a sense of it as I don’t have information, but notable missing signatures are the MP for Riverside (but riverside declared for YC), Angela Eagle and the mayor.

I don’t know the proportion of Merseyside Labour Party membership to the total (I don’t think it’s large), but it comes on the back of JC’s performance yesterday. It’s Sunday after all, and the local paper’s website did not report it until the evening.

Whoever the next Lab leader is will have to find ways of making inroads to the large swathes of the South of England without a Labour MP, but where there is a large working class vote – many parts of Kent and Essex for example.

Is there any evidence for how the leadership candidates go down there? I think Liz K missed a trick by setting out her policy platform to attract voters in the conparatively more affluent Midlands marginals.

There is only one thing that I am certain of as regards the next Labour leader and that is that none of the 4 candidates will be able to appeal to the southern working class voters in north Kent etc (constituencies such as Rochester and Strood, Gillingham and Rainham )

Bryant would be a great Shadow Leader of the House except he can’t be civil to the other parties for five minutes at a time, which means he’d be hopeless. It’s a collaborative role. Also I doubt Corbyn could convince him to serve unless he was desperate to fight the Tories in that particular brief, the way he is with CMS.

I’m not sure Burnham has the skill set to be Shadow Chancellor, although I suppose he was Chief Sec for a bit. It would make more sense to leave him in Health, though- he’s good at it, he’s obsessed with it, and he and Corbyn completely agree on the policy. If he were Shadow Chancellor there would be tensions. My money is still on Smith.

Why can’t McDonnell and Hopkins have a job? The PLP may not be too keen but they don’t get a say- they voted to abolish Shadow Cabinet elections, so until Corbyn can restore them the positions are in his gift.

Louise Haigh is going places if Corbyn or Burnham win. I’d expect to see her on the front bench by the time of the next election if she wants it. She’s a very impressive MP from her short performance so far (and my time campaigning with her in Sheffield).

McDonnell is Corbyn’s right-hand man (seriously, he’s rarely a few feet out of range in the interviews I’ve seen) in this campaign; I’d be flabbergasted if he didn’t receive a cabinet position were Corbyn to win.

Spearmint
You might be right on Burnham as shadow chancellor but if you’ll excuse my potential stupidity who’s Smith? Surely you don’t mean Cat Smith?
As for Hopkins and McDonnell if Corbyn gives them cabinet roles the PLP will see it as some sort of communist coup, Corbyn is shrewd enough to basically get what he wants with a more moderate (but still left wing) individual while keeping some of his best allies on the back benches sniffing out trouble.

Craig
See my above point, it would probably be better for Corbyn to keep his biggest supporter on the back benches to avoid accusations of cronyism.

Mr Nameless
I agree, I’d only heard of Louise Haigh today and half an hour of Internet searching later and I’m coloured impressed.

Democracy
There is only one thing I’m certain off and that’s nobody is certain what’s going to happen in 2020.

As I rejoined at the start of the year (living in Cleggs constituency) I’m voting Burnham (cooper 2nd) with Creasy as deputy leader (Watson 2nd): I like Kendall the best and she’s the only one (of the current candidates) who would actually force the Labour party out of this navel gazing anachronistic ‘oh aren’t Syriza great’ (and soooo cool!) miserabalist refusnik in denial comfort zone. But she is way too inexperienced.

It should have been Chuka with Jarvis as his deputy: but I think they were both a little too cynical, er, clever- thinking they’d opt out for this next general election defeat and then come riding to Labours rescue as the ‘dream team’ of 2020. Ooops! If Chuka had stood he would have won: no far left BS would have occurred and in 2020 we would have got loads of extra votes from the apolitical apathetic masses who ‘have no idea what his policies are but I want to be able to tell my grandkids I voted for the first black PM’…

Anyway this is all moot now: because Corbyn has clearly got the leadership in the bag.

Not just with all the new people (160,000 Tories, Trots, Greens and Monster Raving Loonies joining since late June to vote him in- I will never understand why there is not a 3 or 6 month qualifying period to be able to vote…and stop just this sort of entryist shenanigans), but also most of those who joined up for Ed M since 2010. Plus, of course, there has been the loss of those who departed after Dave M lost in 2010: and aren’t coming back anytime soon, if ever.

But unfortunately I fear we are just moving from Eds “post new labour 35% strategy” to a “neosocialist 25% strategy” under Jezza (which btw would be defined as a “Triumph” by Tony Benn as was the 1983 result)…i.e. we will lose around another 50 seats from where we are now mainly to the Tories but also to the Lib Dems. We won’t be getting more than a handful of those SNP seats back- that horse has bolted now.

People on the Left have just gone mad: they’ve ‘forgotten the mistakes of the past so are condemned to repeat them’- as the inscription at Dachau concentration camp reads. Or- if under 40- have never known a history of never ending Tory rule (just that annoying Tory Mr Blair) in the face of a pure and principled- but unattractive to the mass of boring middle Britain- Labour far left platform.

The most preposterous thing in all this (and Dianne Abbot is a prime exponent of this ‘view’) is that ‘we lost the general election as a result of having lost to the SNP’…..because we were outflanked on the Left! Aside from the fact that we could have won every single seat in Scotland (something we’ve never ever done) and the Tories would STILL be the largest party that kind of simplistic ‘logic’ reminds me of the old chestnut “3 million migrants; 3 million unemployed- get rid of one to solve the other’. B—-ks!

The scenario in Scotland was primarily one of anti English nationalism combined with the full knowledge that even if you voted SNP, partly because you voted against them in the referendum and felt a touch of guilt, you were 100% safe that the SNP would never be in charge of the UK government. Ergo, it was a free pass to stick 2 fingers up to the English- especially after having had to suffer Dave’s barely concealed gloating after the ‘NO’ vote.

The SNP performance had very little to do with unilateral nuclear disarmament (which the SNP as a regional party cannot implement) or higher taxes (which they’ve had the power to raise since they were elected governing party of the Scottish Parliament in 2007 but…have…not…yet! Preferring instead to do things like run roughshod over local planners to allow billionaire Donald Trump a golf course and draw upon their far more generous (unfair) per capita support from the Barnett formula UK State coffers!!

We were beaten by a far left party so we should ‘turn left’??? Political chutzpah at its absolute best. In a way you have to admire it: though the exponents of this view will be dining on ashes by 2020.

However none of the above will stop the hysteria of between 1 in 5 and 1 in 6 Britons. I’m sure Corbyn will be making lots of excellent passionate speeches to packed out marches, halls and events where he is hailed by delirious crowds of already passionate believers. But I came of age (literally and politically) in the 1980 – 1984 period. Foot used to make barnstorming speeches to cheering crowds of thousands back then too: but outside not in attendance were 10 times as many ‘non activists’ who thought he was crackers. The advent of social media has simply made this “only talk with/ interact with people of the same view; never hear a contradictory view” (so called “virtue signalling echo chamber”) tendency ever more pronounced.

The country simply does not feel anyway near as left/ centre left wing now than it did back in the first half of the 1980s: and we got 28.5% of the vote in 1983.

*****

FWIW here is my prediction. Within 24-36 months and there will be a coup and JC will be stabbed in the front, or he will resign (or both); or alternatively- if he appears to be making some headway- there will be an SDP mk2 split away.

I’ve become sanguine about it.

I’ve come to the conclusion that Labour- like an individual with personal emotional/ mental health issues- now needs to work through this process from start to finish.

Milestones along the way to healing are to have ‘principled’ policies either glorifyingly embraced (circa 40% vote share) or resoundingly rejected at the ballot box (circa 25% vote share); and winning back Scotland or not making much of an inroad into the SNP at the election for the Scottish Parliament next spring: because we lost there as we ‘weren’t left wing enough’ (or in the case of not making inroads, did not).

In some senses this is all so very unnecessary. But in other senses it’s an opportunity to slay some sacred cows and deal with some illogical positions that have become lazy totems espoused by those who never for a second expected to be in a position to take responsibility for their implementation.

Just for the sake of clarity, am I right that you think a Corbyn win (which probably won’t happen anyway) would be
a rerun of the early 1980s?

The reason I want the clarification is because I think you are wrong. The battle (in both Labour and the UK generally) is not between leftwingers, centrists and rightwingers; but between those offering bottom-up or top down solutions. JC could appeal to Kippers (who really cost Lab the GE in the Midlands marginals), because he is listening to the concerns of increasingly alienated voters who couldn’t care less about left or right but feel government ignores them and simply reflects
the interest of a tiny clique of vested interests.

It’s also interesting to learn you are going Burnham/Cooper. I suspect most Burnham backers will do the same, just as most Cooper backers will go for Burnham as their second preference.

I’m sorry but a social liberal party has to wait for its turn – not any time soon.

@ Rivers10

It would be nice to have a communist takeover of the Lqbour party, but it won’t happen soon. I don’t know any communist MP in the Labour Party (even of they were when wearing short pants). However in the Green Party in Liverpool … ????

I think for the next decade or so is about radical parties (left, right and centre).