System bringing rain to South Florida has low chance of forming; system near Mexico has better chance

8 p.m. UPDATE: The shower and thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Caribbean
is beginning to show some signs of organization and now has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical system over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days, according to the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. tropical weather outlook. There’s a 50 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours.

The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, then into the northwestern Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, forecasters say. It’s likely to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure extending northward from Cuba continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms across South Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been recorded in some of the heavier showers, the hurricane center said.

Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and South Florida during the next couple of days. There’s just a 10 percent chance of tropical development.

But hurricane forecasters also are watching a system off the Mexican coast that they’ve given a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday.

Early indications send that system into the northern or northwest Gulf of Mexico. But,National Hurricane Centersenior specialist Jack Beven said Tuesday afternoon, extreme southern Florida is “not off the hook. It’s not zero chance.”

The hurricane center’s 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook said the broad area of low pressure that formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea “could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.”

Meanwhile, that low pressure trough now over Cuba and near the northwestern Bahamas, has only a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical system through Sunday.

Storm 2016

About the Author

Kim Miller is the weather reporter for The Palm Beach Post.

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