Weekly Probabilities 11/20

So I'm going to do things a little differently this week. People have been wanting me to include Baylor in my calculations, but to be frank, I don't know what numbers to assign to whether or not humans will decide if an undefeated Baylor should pass an undefeated Ohio State. Rather than try to calculate that, which would be purely a guess, I'm going to leave you with 2 scenarios: If you believe an undefeated OSU holds off Baylor, and if you believe an undefeated OSU gets passed by Baylor. You can choose for yourself which one you want to look at.

As always, my numbers will be included for discussion. I implemented a few changes that you all suggested last week (Namely, giving FSU much better odds against Florida). Again, process is objective, individual numbers are subjective, but I try my best.

Individual teams:

Alabama: 42.3% chance of winning out
Florida State: 69.7% chance of winning out
Ohio State: 53.8% chance of winning out
Baylor: 29.7% chance of winning out

If you believe Ohio State holds off an undefeated Baylor:

assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 17.5% chance of finishing #1, 70.6% chance of finishing in the top 2.

not assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 9.4% chance of finishing #1, 37.9% chance of finishing in the top 2.

If you believe Ohio State would get passed by an undefeated Baylor:

assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 12.3% chance of finishing #1, 54.8% chance of finishing in the top 2.

not assuming Ohio State goes undefeated: 6.6% chance of finishing #1, 29.5% chance of finishing in the top 2.

So, as you can see, there's certainly no reason to give up on those national championship dreams yet. But it is far from a sure thing.

Maybe I'll do that next week. But it wouldn't be exact as early in the year I wasn't including teams like baylor. So things outside of the "math" change sometimes haha. Still, I could give you a rough estimate. I'll make a chart. Charts are good.