White Christmas chance at your hometown; a few Michigan cities almost 100 percent

The map below shows the long-term average occurrence of a white Christmas. In this case a white Christmas is defined as one inch of snow on the ground.

The chance of a white Christmas ranges from 37 percent in far southeast Lower Michigan to 98 percent over part of the western U.P.

This map shows how often there has been a white Christmas across the U.S.

A closer look at Michigan shows some exact numbers. Grosse Pointe Farms has the lowest historical chance of a white Christmas in Michigan at 36 percent. Detroit Metro has a 37 percent chance of a white Christmas. This means the Detroit area has a white Christmas once every three years on average.

Historical chance of a white Christmas

As we move north, the chance of a white Christmas increases. As we move west into the Lake Michigan snowbelts and the Upper Peninsula snowbelts, the chance of a white Christmas skyrockets. Saginaw historically has a 48 percent chance of a white Christmas. Grand Rapids has a 55 percent chance of one inch on the ground on Christmas.

Traverse City has a 73 percent chance of a white Christmas, when looking at Christmases over time. Charlevoix is covered with Christmas snow 79 percent of the time.

If you want to just about assure yourself of a white Christmas, go to Marquette, Hancock or Ironwood. Marquette has a 96 percent chance of a white Christmas, Hancock a 95 percent chance and Ironwood a 98 percent chance.

Of course what really matters for southern Lower is the weather just the few days before Christmas and on Christmas Day. This year the weather looks pretty mild right up to Christmas Eve Day, when cooler air might start to move in. My thought right now is a white Christmas is going to be tough to come by.