GOP eyes AIPAC summit for Iran push

Republicans hope a powerful pro-Israel group’s Washington fly-in can turn the tide in their quest for a vote on new Iran sanctions.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s policy conference will bring thousands of AIPAC members to Washington beginning Sunday, a flood the GOP believes could help force reluctant Senate Democrats to vote on new economic penalties toward Iran.

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The debate over what to do with Iran’s nuclear program has caused tensions between AIPAC and congressional Republicans, many of whom don’t understand why the group is not putting more of its political muscle behind the effort.

And now more than ever Senate Republicans are in desperate need for Democratic support after an effort to attach penalties to a veterans bill failed this week and fueled partisan discord.

Republicans believe a new push from AIPAC could help change the minds of Democrats who are deferring to President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who believe a sanctions vote would destroy delicate ongoing diplomatic talks with Iran. But they might be disappointed: Despite supporting the bill’s goals, AIPAC appears to oppose an immediate vote on sanctions given the lack of Democratic support.

“Our view is that we strongly support the legislation. We believe that it should be voted on when it would have the broadest bipartisan support,” an AIPAC source said. “We thought there shouldn’t be an immediate vote [in order] to build support.”

That stance has Republicans scratching their heads, given that AIPAC could very well help build that bipartisan support by taking a harder line. Several GOP senators said in interviews this week they hear a more urgent tone from AIPAC’s local branches than from the national organization.

“I was puzzled by the statement they put out a few weeks ago saying that they no longer thought now was the time to vote. I’m not sure that reflects their membership,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). “I certainly think their membership does [want a vote]. That’s my impression from the meetings that I’ve had.”

“They are a very powerful and influential organization,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) “Sometimes, there’s been a disconnect between their leadership here in Washington and their rank-and-file.”

“The rank and file of AIPAC and just the average person who follows this has got to be very worried about the Senate’s inaction,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

A senior Senate aide closely following the issue said “there’s an incredible amount of tension” between local AIPAC chapters itching for quick movement on sanctions and a D.C. apparatus that understands the delicate politics of the issue.

The AIPAC source denied any internal divisions.

“Absolutely not. There’s a very united feeling. I think people will witness the unity this weekend,” the source said.

Christians United for Israel — a group often aligned with AIPAC — has split with the powerful group on sanctions legislation, bombarding senators with thousands of email requests for a quick vote. CUFI’s executive Director David Brog said in an interview that “now’s the time for a vote” and he hopes AIPAC eventually agrees.

“I’m going to be watching and listening very carefully to what comes out of the AIPAC policy conference,” Brog said. “I am hoping they will do the right thing, which is pressing for an up-or-down vote on this bill, as they have in the past.”

Some Republicans and those who closely follow AIPAC believe it is already moving in that direction.

“I think they are becoming more involved because they understand the severity of the problem,”said Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.). “They were dormant for a while but I think they’re coming back. I think they will be vocal about the need to bring up a sanctions bill.”

“They’re looking to get this done,” said Dr. Ben Chouake, president of NORPAC, a contributor to candidates favoring Israel.

But AIPAC has given no indication that it will shift its public position toward an immediate vote, as Republicans hope the hawkish lobby will do. Much can happen during six months of continuing diplomatic talks aimed at finding a permanent agreement and AIPAC sees no reason to box itself in, sources familiar with the issue said.

And Reid has been such an immovable force on sanctions since Obama intervened that a change in AIPAC’s position may not even move the needle with the unbending Democratic leader, who will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday alongside Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), a strong backer of the sanction bill.

“AIPAC is practicing the art of the possible and knows when to extend all of its clout and when not to,” said Maury Amitay, a former AIPAC executive director. “Why go to the wall and put a lot of guys who have been good friends and supporters on the topic in a tough spot?”