No. 243, 21 December 1993

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Inc.
CIS
CONFUSION OVER SS-24 DISMANTLING PLANS. Western newspapers and
press agencies, basing their stories on a 20 December report
by the Ukrainian UNIAN press agency, indicate that Deputy Prime
Minister Valerii Shmarov has announced that Ukraine will dismantle
20-of its 46 SS-24 missiles by the end of 1993. According to
the original UNIAN report, Shmarov stated that warheads had already
been removed from 17 SS-24s. However, Shmarov's figures coincide
almost exactly with previously announced reductions in the Ukrainian
SS-19 force, according to which at least 10 SS-19s have been
removed from alert, with 20 to be deactivated by the end of the
year. Either there are two dismantling plans underway or Shmarov
confused the two missiles and only the SS-19s that are being
dismantled.--John Lepingwell
UKRAINIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE COMMENTS. Reports from Kiev received
by the RFE/RL Research Institute indicate that the Ukrainian
Ministry of Defense was taken by surprise by Shmarov's statement
and on 21 December it unofficially commented that it could not
confirm Shmarov's statement. Shmarov is reportedly travelling
to Moscow on 21-December to conduct further negotiations. The
Ukrainian parliament has reportedly decided to discuss the matter
in the afternoon of 21 December, amid rumors that a major political
scandal is developing. -John Lepingwell
DETAILS ON URANIUM NEGOTIATIONS. Some details have emerged on
a potential breakthrough reached at Ukrainian-Russian-US negotiations
concerning compensation for the tactical nuclear weapons removed
from Ukraine in 1992. According to Shmarov's 20-December comments
to UNIAN, Ukraine proposed applying the estimated value of the
uranium from the tactical weapons against its debt to Russia
for gas and oil. Since the value of the uranium could be well
over a billion dollars, this could cancel much or all of Ukraine's
estimated $2.5 billion debt. The deal was referred to experts
for further discussion. If the report is correct, Russia may
have made a crucial concession by agreeing to discuss tactical
nuclear weapons at all. Shmarov also claimed that they discussed
paying Ukraine for the uranium extracted from strategic weapons,
by providing Ukraine with nuclear reactor fuel for a five year
period. -John Lepingwell
THOUSANDS ATTEND FUNERAL OF BLACK SEA FLEET OFFICER. Thousands
of naval servicemen and residents of Crimea attended the funeral
of the head of the Black Sea Fleet's press service, Captain Andrei
Lazebnikov, on 20 December, ITAR-TASS reported. Lazebnikov was
gunned down in front of his house on 15 December by unknown assailants.
According to Interfax, the first deputy commander of the Russian
navy, Admiral Igor Kasatonov, sent a message to the Crimean parliamentary
chairman, Mykola Bahrov, and Ukraine's presidential envoy in
Sevastopol, Ivan Ermakov, in which he linked attacks on Russian
naval officers with the ongoing dispute over the Black Sea Fleet.
Lazebnikov is the third Black Sea Fleet officer to be murdered
in Sevastopol in the past two months. -Ustina Markus
ADAMISHIN ON UKRAINE, ELECTIONS. First Deputy Russian Foreign
Minister Anatolii Adamishin said in an interview with Interfax
on 17 December that Russia's efforts to maintain good relations
with Ukraine require "meticulous work" because of the nuclear
disarmament problem. Adamishin said it would be "inadmissible"
to use the strong showing of the ultra-right in Russia's recent
elections to justify fear of an aggressive Russian foreign policy.
He said such thinking could be used in Ukraine to rationalize
its maintenance of nuclear weapons. -Suzanne Crow
CIS INTERSTATE BANK FOUNDED. The CIS Interstate Bank, which is
intended to facilitate multilateral clearing of CIS interstate
trade transactions, has been officially established with commitments
on the part of the ten CIS member states to contribute 5 billion
rubles as starting capital, according to Russian news agencies
on 17 and 18 December. Contributions are based on the individual
members' share in their total "foreign trade turnover" in 1990.
Thus, Russia will be contributing 50% of the capital, Ukraine
20.7%, Belarus 8.4%, Kazakhstan 6.1%, Uzbekistan 5.5., Moldova
2.9%, Armenia 1.8%, Tajikistan 1.6%, Kyrgyzstan 1.5% and Turkmenistan
1.5%. Russian Central Bank head Viktor Gerashchenko has been
elected chairman of the new bank's board and his former deputy
at the Russian Central Bank, Valerii Savanin, became the bank's
president. -Erik Whitlock
CIS STATES SEEK GATT MEMBERSHIP. Three CIS states, Ukraine, Moldova,
and Armenia, together with Lithuania, have applied to join the
GATT world trade group, AFP reported on 17 December. A meeting
of the GATT Council formally accepted their applications and
decided to set up working groups as the first step towards membership.
-Bohdan Nahaylo
RUSSIA
LATEST ELECTORAL FIGURES. According to the latest figures on
the results of the parliamentary elections, released by ITAR-TASS
on 20 December on the basis of information received from government
sources, Russia's Choice will become the strongest faction in
the State Duma with 103 seats (22.8%). The Liberal-Democratic
Party of Vladimir Zhirinovsky will get 66 seats (14.6%), the
Communists 62 seats (13.7%), the Agrarian Party 49 seats (10.8%).
The Party of Russian Unity and Concord of Sergei Shakhrai is
expected, according to these latest results, to outnumber the
bloc of Grigorii Yavlinsky. Shakhrai's party has gained 29 seats
(6.4%), Yavlinsky's bloc only 28 seats (6.2%). The so-called
independent deputies will receive 70 seats (15.5%). -Alexander
Rahr
PERSONNEL CHANGES IN EXECUTIVE EXPECTED. Presidential aide Yurii
Baturin told ITAR-TASS on 20-December that Yeltsin plans to reshuffle
his team because he was disturbed by the political ambitions
and lack of professionalism of his staff members and has decided
to replace bureaucrats with academics from the presidential advisory
council. -Alexander Rahr
FEDOROV: POLICY SHIFT COULD MEAN RESIGNATION. Finance Minister
Boris Fedorov in an interview published by Izvestiya on 20 December
said that a change in Russian economic policy could lead members
of government associated with "Russia's Choice" to resign. "If
. . . the 'Ukrainization' of our economy begins, why should we
bear responsibility?" he asked rhetorically. Otherwise, Fedorov
spoke quite positively about the year's economic and political
events. In addition to the fact that the election results will
mean more reformers in the new parliament than in the old, he
cited the appreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the
progress made in further liberalizing markets in Russia. -Erik
Whitlock
BABURIN COMMENTS ON ELECTIONS. The leader of the Russian All-People's
Union, hard-liner Sergei Baburin, regards the parliamentary elections
as the beginning of a "long process of the liberation of society
from alien national interests," ITAR-TASS reported on 17-December.
He said the new parliament should review the principles of the
adoption of the new Constitution and decide whether the vote
on the Constitution was legal. He stated that had his own nationalistic
movement not been banned from participating in elections as a
party bloc, the Liberal-Democratic Party of Vladimir Zhirinovsky
would not have performed so well. Baburin did not exclude cooperation
with either Zhirinovsky's party or Egor Gaidar's Russia's Choice
party in parliament. Baburin also supported Zhirinovsky's idea
of a greater Russia and the concept of Russia's borders being
extended to encompass those of the Soviet Union. -Alexander Rahr
and Bohdan Nahaylo
SPECULATION OVER PRESIDENTIAL RULE. According to a national security
concept drafted by a non-government group, the American-Russian
University (RAU), the internal stabilization of Russia may require
the introduction of provisional presidential rule, Ostankino
television reported on 17 December. The concept postulates that
the main threats to Russian security in the next year will be
internal ones: political extremism, economic decline and rise
of unemployment. Under such circumstances, the president may
temporarily restrict the activity of political parties and movements.
According to an RAU expert, Academician Aleksei Podberezkin such
a measure may help to stabilize Russia, which is a top national
security priority Victor Yasmann
CHURKIN TO BRUSSELS. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Special
Envoy Vitalii Churkin traveled to Brussels on 21 December for
talks on a European Union plan to stop the fighting in Bosnia.
Churkin will be part of a group of seven (representatives of
the three warring sides, two international negotiators, and a
representative of the United States) officials who are attempting
to achieve agreement on a settlement for Bosnia before the New
Year. Chances of achieving this agreement are considered extremely
slim, and Russia has prepared its own alternative plan to replace
the one that will likely fail, unnamed Russian diplomatic sources
told Interfax. -Suzanne Crow
ZHIRINOVSKY'S REGIONAL POLICY. The newspaper Trud reported on
16 December on a press conference by the youth wing of Zhirinovsky's
party, the "Falcons," in the Western Siberian city of Perm. The
Falcons want to combine Perm Oblast with neighboring Sverdlovsk
Oblast and, returning to prerevolutionary usage, to rename the
two regions Perm Guberniya (province). They have already selected
their candidate for governor-like many of Zhirinovsky's supporters,
he is young, being still at medical school. The idea of eliminating
Russia's ethnically-based republics and redividing the Russian
Federation into territorially-based administrative units, did
not originate with Zhirinovsky, but the Perm Falcons have put
their own spin on it. They want to make all Gypsies, Transcaucasians
and Vietnamese leave the province. Law and order will be ensured
by introducing a new criminal code and making extensive use of
capital punishment by firing squad. -Elizabeth Teague
DECREES AFFECTING RESIDENT FOREIGNERS. On 17 December President
Yeltsin signed decrees relating to resident foreigners, ITAR-TASS
reported. The first orders the Federal Immigration Service to
take over control of immigration at the borders from the Border
Guard Service, and to register all non-Russians entering Russia,
including asylum-seekers. The Service is to determine whether
the latter qualify for asylum and to deport those found ineligible.
The second decree requires any employer hiring a foreigner to
pay the government the equivalent of one month's salary for that
employee. If the employer violates the decree, the employee is
to be deported at the employer's expense. -Keith Bush
TRANSCAUCASIA AND CENTRAL ASIA
ALIEV IN PARIS. On 20 December, the second day of his official
visit to France, Azerbaijani President Geidar Aliev met with
French President FranНois Mitterand, and signed the 1990 Paris
Charter of the CSCE, and an agreement on friendship and cooperation
between the two countries, Western agencies reported. At a press
conference Aliev suggested that Nagorno-Karabakh could be granted
a greater degree of autonomy, but insisted that it must remain
an inalienable part of Azerbaijan. Mitterand likewise affirmed
France's support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. -Liz
Fuller
TAJIK INDEPENDENT JOURNALISTS ORGANIZE. Exiled Tajik journalists
formed a Union of Independent Journalists of Tajikistan in Moscow
on 17 December, Interfax reported on 19-December. Radio Liberty
correspondent Salimjan Ayubov was elected chairman of the new
group, which hopes to unite Tajik colleagues who have taken refuge
in Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Great Britain as well as in
the Russian Federation. Journalists, particularly those who worked
for Tajik nationalist or other opposition publications, have
been special targets of the present neocommunist regime in Tajikistan
and many fled the country early in 1993 to escape arrest when
all opposition publications were closed down. The Tajik journalist
exiles in Moscow have told foreign counterparts that they fear
physical attack or kidnapping by Tajikistan's National Security
Committee, which they insist operates freely in the Russian capital.
-Bess Brown
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL SLAIN IN MONTENEGRO. According to Tanjug,
Montenegro's Deputy Prime Minister Mihailo Ljesar was murdered
in his office in Podgorica, the capital of the Yugoslav republic,
on 20 December. Western agencies add that the assailant, Drago
Krivokapic, a manager of a transportation company, turned a gun
on himself after shooting Ljesar. Authorities have established
no clear motives for the assassination, but speculate that Ljesar
may have been slain for his involvement in the liquidation of
the firm employing Krivokapic. -Stan Markotich
SERBIAN ELECTION RETURNS DISPUTED. Since the polls closed in
the Serbian parliamentary elections of 19 December, most parties
involved have been able to agree only on the fact that the ruling
Socialist Party of Serbia will emerge with the greatest number
of representatives in the 250-seat legislature. According to
a Reuters report, Ivica Dacic, an SPS spokesman, has claimed
that early results show the Socialists will garner between 124
and 128 seats, perhaps enough to form a majority government.
Dacic's claims, however, were quickly disputed by electoral officials,
who on the evening of 20 December estimated that the SPS would
end up winning only about 96 seats, five fewer than they held
in the previous parliament. Opposition party leaders have suggested
that the SPS stands to win no more than 115 seats. Official election
results are expected on 22-December. -Stan Markotich
BOSNIA UPDATE. On 20 December Bosnian state radio reported that
serious fighting was taking place in several areas, noting that
Bosnian Serb forces had shelled Muslim troops near Zvornik, in
the east, and Olovo, to the north. Meanwhile AFP reported that
a Belgian UN soldier was killed by sniper fire while accompanying
an aid convoy near the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo. The reports
of violence in Bosnia came on the eve of Geneva peace talks involving
Bosnia's warring factions and devoted in part to discussing plans
for the partition of Bosnia along ethnic lines. -Stan Markotich
HUNGARIAN PRESIDENT NOMINATES BOROSS. On 20 December President
Arpad Goncz informed National Assembly Chairman Gyorgy Szabad
and acting Prime Minister Peter Boross, that he will propose
that parliament elect Boross as the country's next prime minister,
MTI reports. Boross said that he did not plan any changes in
the composition of the government and will continue the policies
of Jozsef Antall. Boross announced that he plans to appoint Hungarian
Democratic Forum parliamentary group leader Imre Konya as Minister
of Interior. Minister of Defense Lajos Fur who has served as
Boross's deputy while Boross held the post of Minister of Interior
will continue to substitute for Boross. Alluding to his image
as a strongman, Boross stressed that he planned to quickly and
efficiently fulfill the tasks remaining until the 1994 national
elections. He was quoted by MTI as saying that the "period of
meeting dead-lines and of calling to account" will begin under
his government. The national assembly is expected to vote on
Boross's nomination on 21 December. -Edith Oltay
HUNGARY'S ASSOCIATE AGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION. The Hungarian
parliament adopted on 20 December by a vote of 231 to 1 with
three abstentions a bill that promulgates Hungary's associate
agreement with the European Union. Minister of International
Economic Relations Bela Kadar told parliament that the agreement,
which is due to take effect on 1 February 1994, will bring Hungary
many economic advantages, Radio Budapest reports. He said that
the final goal for Hungary is to achieve full EU membership by
the year 2,000. Under the agreement, Hungary commits itself to
bringing its legislation in harmony with the legal norms of the
European Union. -Edith Oltay
WALESA PURSUES CONFLICT WITH GOVERNMENT. Meeting with journalists
on 20-December, President Lech Walesa restated his opposition
to the appointment of deputy ministers from the ruling coalition
to the three "presidential" ministries of defense, internal affairs,
and foreign affairs. He argued that such appointments would politicize
and divide the army and police forces. Coalition officials have
dismissed Walesa's objections. Walesa also criticized the ruling
coalition for attempting to gain control of all the posts in
the state administration, and for favoring a centralistic approach
to elected local government bodies. Walesa urged local government
activists to fight back. The president also said he is giving
the right-wing parties until the spring to regroup and form a
viable alternative to the current leftist coalition. If this
fails, Walesa said, he will once again assume the role of a "political
president" and ensure "balance" in politics. Meanwhile, a spokesman
toned down another presidential conflict by announcing that Walesa
will not insist on the resignations of his three appointees to
the National Broadcasting Council. The president demanded these
resignations on 9-December. -Louisa Vinton
POLISH PARTIES REPORT ON CAMPAIGN SPENDING. Only one in fifteen
Polish election commissions met the 20 December deadline for
submission of legally-mandated campaign spending reports. PAP
reports that most of the major parties complied on time, however.
The biggest spenders were: the Democratic Union (UD), with 20
billion zloty ($1 million); the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD),
17 billion; the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), 15 billion; the Liberal
Democratic Congress (KLD), 13 billion; the Confederation for
an Independent Poland, 8.5 billion, and the Real Politics Union,
1.3 billion. For the first time, the election law requires the
state to reimburse parties for some campaign spending, in proportion
to the number of seats won. This provision made the elections
a profitable venture for the SLD, which will receive a 30-billion-zloty
payment from the state, and the PSL, which gets 20 billion. The
biggest losers were the UD, which will receive a reimbursement
of only 11 billion, and the KLD, which, having won no seats,
receives nothing at all. -Louisa Vinton
BUDGETARY LAMENTS FROM POLISH DEFENSE MINISTRY. Polish defense
ministry officials held a press conference on 20 December to
lobby for increased military spending in 1994. The draft defense
budget for the coming year is 47 trillion zloty ($2.35-billion),
or 2.2% of GDP. Observing that Polish defense spending has been
dropping steadily since 1986, officials said that a sum equal
to 3% of GDP is the minimum needed to maintain defensive capabilities.
At $50 per year, they said, Poland has the lowest per capita
defense spending of all the former Warsaw Pact countries, compared
to $150 in the Czech Republic and $110 in Hungary. "Inviolable"
reserves of ammunition and other supplies have been cannibalized
for current needs, reducing defense readiness. Without government
orders to maintain production, officials added, Poland's defense
industries could collapse. The government meets later this week
to finalize the 1994 defense budget. -Louisa Vinton
SLOVAK PARLIAMENT DISCUSSES 1994 BUDGET. The 1994 state budget
proposal, approved by the ruling coalition on 2 December, was
discussed in parliament on 20 December, TASR reports. The proposed
budget, which provides for a deficit of 14-billion koruny and
cuts in all ministries except defense, has been sharply criticized
by all opposition parties and by several parliamentary committees.
Slovak National Party Chairman Ludovit Cernak offered amendments
to shift funds from the ministries of culture, foreign affairs
and defense to that of education and science, thus allowing schools
to function on the same level as in 1993. The same day the Trade
Union Association of Employees in Education and Science initiated
a demonstration in front of the parliament, distributing leaflets
challenging deputies not to adopt the 1994 budget bill in its
current form. Discussions will continue in the 21 December session.
Many do not expect the budget to be passed, which could lead
to a no-confidence vote in the present cabinet. Also on 20 December
Finance Minister Julius Toth announced that the state budget
deficit for 1993 reached 16 billion koruny by 30 November and
is expected to grow to 19 billion koruny by the end of the year
because of extra spending on health care, education and agriculture.
The 1993 budget bill had provided for a balanced budget. -Sharon
Fisher
ROMANIAN GENERAL TO BE TRIED FOR 1989 SHOOTING ORDER. Radio Bucharest
announced on 20 December a decision by Romania's General Prosecutor's
Office to put on trial a high-ranking army officer together with
two ex-security officers for a shooting order issued during the
December 1989 revolt. The three defendants are Maj. Gen. Dumitru
Draghin, former secret police general Grigore Ghita and the ex-commander
of the Otopeni airport troops, Ionel Zorila. The men are accused
of issuing on 23-December 1989 a shooting order at Bucharest's
main airport Otopeni against an arriving military reinforcement
unit from Cimpina. According to Romanian reports, 50 persons
were killed and 13 seriously injured during the shoot-out, in
which each side apparently thought it was fighting terrorists.
The trial, for which no deadline has been set, will be the first
involving a high-ranking army officer. Romanian opposition groups
and independent media have repeatedly demanded that those responsible
for more than 1,000 killings in the 1989 uprising be put on trial.
-Dan Ionescu
WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN TROOPS FROM LATVIA, ESTONIA MAY BE SUSPENDED.
Aleksandr Udaltsov, a Russian Foreign Ministry official in charge
of relations with the Baltic countries, said that Russia will
pursue a "more realistic policy" in its relations with Estonia
and Latvia, Interfax reported on 20 December. He noted that their
hopes that Russia will follow the same policy as in Lithuania
and withdraw its troops without first signing agreements clearly
stating the commitments of the signatories would not be fulfilled.
As an example, he mentioned Latvia's unwillingness to accept
Russia's proposal to speed up the troop withdrawal if allowed
to retain its radar station at Skrunda for six more years. The
suggestion for the "earlier withdrawal is revoked automatically"
by Latvia's one-sided refusal to allow the station's retention,
Udaltsov said. -Saulius Girnius
POLL ON SUPPORT FOR BALTIC PRESIDENTS. The results of a poll
taken in November, published in Lietuvos rytas on 18 December,
revealed great differences in the extent that the citizens of
the Baltic States trust their presidents, BNS reported on 20
December. According to the poll, 75% of Latvian citizens trusted
President Guntis Ulmanis and 8% did not. The corresponding figures
for Lithuanian President Algirdas Brazauskas were 60% and 34%,
and 44% and 37% for his Estonian counterpart Lennart Meri. -Saulius
Girnius
BELARUSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CRITICIZED. Valyeri Tsepkala, foreign
policy adviser to the chairman of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet,
Stanislau Shushkevich, criticized foreign minister Piotr Krauchenka
for unprofessionalism, Interfax reported on 20 December. He accused
Krauchenka of spending too much time pursuing objectives of cultural
value for Belarus, to the detriment of the economy and diplomacy.
The result of this neglect can be seen in Belarus's position
in the UN. According to Tsepkala, Belarus's contribution to the
UN was recently increased so that, "Now we will pay thrice as
much as Hungary does, and 50% more than India with its 800-million
population. Belarus is drawing close to the level of China."
Tsepkala also criticized Krauchenka for Belarus's failure to
win a seat on the UN Security Council, and the conduct of several
diplomatic initiatives which only resulted in, "the allocation
of money for repairing a number of premises in the Belarusian
Foreign Ministry designed for international observers." -Ustina
Markus
SOCIALIST PARTY OF UKRAINE'S PLATFORM. On 18 December Ukrainian
TV reported on the Socialist Party of Ukraine's (SPU) pre-election
platform. The party's leader, Oleksandr Moroz stated that the
party supported the establishment of independent Ukraine, however,
it proposes restoring the broken relations with Russia and integrating
Ukraine in the CIS. In addition, the party stands for granting
all power to local councils, a move which favors the socialists
since they are one of the largest and best organized parties.
The party also favors a six month moratorium on privatization,
a review of the legality of property and enterprises so far privatized.
While an appeal "to the working people of Ukraine" was adopted
in which the SPU declared its intention to cooperate with the
communist and peasant parties, the SPU simultaneously stated
its intention to oppose the parties and movements of the "nationalist
and bureaucratic elite," i.e., RUKH, the Republican Party, the
Democratic Party and others. There are about 30,000 members and
about 120,000 active supporters of the SPU, operating in 25 regional,
58 city and 244-district committees. The party emphasizes that
it is in the opposition to the current power in Ukraine, Interfax
reported on 19 December. -Ustina Markus
"NEW UKRAINE" CREATES COORDINATING CENTER. "New Ukraine," has
decided to create a coordinating center in Kiev for the various
democratically oriented parties which adhere to it, Ukrainian
television reported on 16 December. Formed in 1991, "New Ukraine"
includes parties and movements of liberal and social democratic
orientation, such as the Party for the Democratic Revival of
Ukraine, the Greens, the Party of Constitutional Democrats, and
others. The leader of "New Ukraine," Volodymyr Hryniov, says
that the parties belonging to it can only count on winning 20
seats and cannot hope to form their own parliamentary faction
in the elections next March, Ukrainian TV reported on 18 December.
According to Interfax on 19 December, under "New Ukraine"s draft
election program "the essence of economic reforms is to remove
the destructive state monopoly on property and economic power,
lift restrictions on people's incomes, create conditions for
free enterprise, and ensure private ownership of land and means
of production." -Ustina Markus
[As of 1200 CET]
Compiled by John Lepingwell and Edith Oltay
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