David Blair became Chief Foreign Correspondent of the Daily Telegraph in November 2011. He previously worked for the paper as Diplomatic Editor, Africa Correspondent and Middle East Correspondent.

How the Ukraine crisis may complicate Iran nuclear talks

Will the new confrontation between Russia and America over Ukraine affect the chances of settling that hardy perennial on the world stage, namely the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme? The short answer is that it could – and not for the better.

The interim agreement constraining Iran’s nuclear ambitions runs out on July 20. The negotiations on a final deal to resolve the issue once and for all are now under way.

Remember that talks with Iran are handled by the “P5 plus 1” contact group, consisting of the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany. Keeping these six countries united behind a common negotiating position towards Iran is vital. But if four members of the group – America, Britain, France and Germany – are busily engaged in imposing sanctions on another member – Russia – then that unity would be at risk.

If so, Iran might feel under less pressure to make the concessions needed for a final agreement. Worse, Iran may even feel able to walk away from the negotiations, safe in the knowledge that Russia would not allow its Western rivals from responding with tougher sanctions.

Gary Samore, formerly the White House coordinator for arms control, fears that the Ukraine crisis will turn into a complicating factor for the Iran talks. Speaking in London on Monday, he predicted that if America and its allies line up to impose sanctions of whatever kind on Russia, that would “lead to at least the appearance, if not the reality, of disarray within the P5 plus 1”. Consequently, Iran may feel “more able to walk away from the nuclear negotiations”.

If relations between America and the Kremlin were to break down completely, Russia would have several options for hitting back. Back in 2010, the Kremlin cancelled the sale of the S300 air defence system to Iran, despite having pocketed the money. If Russia really wants to cause trouble, it could choose to revive that agreement and deliver the S300.

Iran’s oil exports are constrained by US and EU financial sanctions. But suppose Russia imported Iranian crude and then sold and marketed the oil itself, passing the revenue to Tehran in return for a cut? Then Russia could help Iran to evade the toughest sanctions.

So a crisis in US-Russian relations over Ukraine would have far-reaching consequences, spreading well beyond the region where the confrontation takes place. The nuclear talks with Iran may soon become even more complicated.