Romney's 47 Percent Ceiling

If you were feeling generous, you could call Monday the beginning of Mitt Romney’s “comeback.” Not only has he gained ground in national polls—he's pulled within 2 points of Obama in the latest survey from ABC News and the Washington Post—but there’s been positive movement in several swing states. Gravis Marketing now has Florida as a toss-up, and Public Policy Polling shows a tie in North Carolina, echoing the close race of 2008.

October 1

Pollster

State

LV/RV

Obama

Romney

Margin

CNN

USA

LV

50

47

O+3

ABC News/Washington Post

USA

LV

49

47

O+2

Politico/GWU/Battleground

USA

LV

49

47

O+2

Gallup

USA

RV

49

45

O+4

Rasmussen

USA

LV

50

47

O+3

Public Policy Polling

Ohio

LV

49

45

O+4

Gravis Marketing

Florida

LV

49

48

O+1

We Ask America

Iowa

LV

48

44

O+4

Public Policy Polling

North Carolina

LV

48

48

Tie

American Research Group

North Carolina

LV

46

50

R+4

We Ask America

Colorado

LV

49

46

O+3

University of New Hampshire

New Hampshire

LV

54

39

O+15

This is better news for the Romney campaign, but it’s not good news. For starters, Romney is still underperforming among white voters. According to CNN, he takes 56 percent of whites to Obama’s 41 percent. Given his low support among minorities, Romney needs the overwhelming majority of whites—over 60 percent—to reach the 50-percent mark. Romney has never held this level of white support, and it’s hard to believe he’ll reach it barring a major mistake by President Obama.

Indeed, this highlights an important point about the latest crop of polls: Romney has recovered from his post-convention low, but at most, he’s bounced back to where he’s been the whole year. It’s striking—at no point during the election has Romney broken past 47-percent support in national polls. A handful of polls following the Republican National Convention had him reach 48 or 49 percent support, but in retrospect, they stand out as outliers.

Put another way, in the nearly six months since Romney clinched the Republican presidential nomination, he has won only a small share of the independents and Democrats he needs to win in November. His current standing reflects the near-unanimous support of the Republican Party—and almost no one else. Even if you’re optimistic about Romney’s chances, this is a bad place to be when the election is but a month away.