Survivor 2014: Predicting The Season’s Result by Character Type with Angie Caunce

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Rob Cesternino hosts the the casting mix-down for Survivor: San Juan del Sur – Blood vs. Water along with Angie Caunce (@AngieCaunce). In her first appearance on RHAP, Caunce laid out the different Survivor casting types and predicting who will win Survivor based on the casting types. What Caunce presented was a different way of looking at the game and the feedback from the audience was just amazing. People generally went beyond just taking the data but also they have taken it to the next level.

In today’s show, Caunce is going through every character type of the current cast along with an overview of the description of the character type and the finish order. Caunce will also be talking about alliances based on their character types, who will make good alliance members and don’t, as well as character types went outcast.

For the record, this is not a spoiler but completely the audience’s prediction based on the data, completely made up, and no insider information. Caunce explains that you’re going to find as many different varieties of the casting types but ultimately, there is that one little element that they need these people to have which is true of all the character types.

The Casting Types Present In Survivor San Juan Del Su:

Oh No You Didn’t! – A girl who’s very bossy, loud, and can be very annoying, makes friends and be a social player but for the most part; way too assertive and alienates other players; has big opinion and not afraid to talk about other people and their opinions; calls people out; often comes from a big city and is inclined to be a little bit hostile. They are fun, not afraid to stand up to adversity, not afraid of conflict. The character type has the worst performance of all of them.

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: It’s the twinnies – Natalie and Nadiya. Their personalities are extremely similar, same age, same gender. They are not sheep. They are not followers and they call people out for their crap. They’re not alienating or completely hostile though. they are seen as outsiders and are having a hard time making solid alliances. They are likely to start fights. They have big opinions. They will be overly critical and get themselves into trouble by calling people out.

Past players: J’Tia, Abi-Maria, Bianca, Alicia from One World’s, Jolanda from Palau, and Alicia from Australia.

Chances to win the game: Zero

Pros: Natalie (the one left in the game) has guts. She is tough and she’s not going to do something just because everyone wants her to.

Cons: She is too outspoken and can be volatile as we saw with her fight with Rocker that didn’t involve her. She can be unpredictable and aggressive. She has no filter. She doesn’t think before she speaks.

Perez Hilton – This is a very social, very intelligent, and this is typically the gay character. He is funny and extremely likable.

Who fits in this casting type?

Josh and Reed will both be this character. Rob thinks this seems to be problematic considering they have different skill sets. Caunce says sexuality is not their most defining character. No one really fits in the single box. But when looking through the lens of trying to separate people into little categories, would they get on to the if they do not have that one element that the casting people are looking for?

Rob thinks Josh and Reed are off to a good start. Reed is more under the radar than Josh has been considering he is on the tribe that has won the first three immunity challenges.

Rob is curious how the alliance would be like had not this been a Blood vs. Water. Cuance recalls Micronesia being the only season where they cast a lot of character types side by side. Half of them were aligned with each other and the other half became mortal enemies. Rob says he looks forward to seeing this in the upcoming season of Survivor: Oil vs. Water casting people who are similar but not getting along.

Cons: Sometimes people in this casting type don’t make very strong majority alliances. They can be a little bit lacking in the physical challenges. But Josh and Reed are very fit. Josh is punching above his weight in terms of his character type and what’s expected of him from the statistical standpoint.

Chances to win the game: As long as they’re not the weakest link and they do not make themselves a target by being too outspoken as well as controlling with strategy and not just going along for the ride, Caunce believes Josh could really make a run for it. But this could change the dynamic once he gets reunited with Reed.

Meredith Grey – She is 25-35. She is your young professional (cop, doctor, lawyer, teacher, engineer, or working in finance) She is very intelligent. She plays really hard and loses just as hard. She moves too hard, too fast. Too smart for their own good and doesn’t know how to chill out and blend in with a herd.

True Grit – This is a soldier or a retired professional athlete, cop, or firefighter, at least 35 years old and really tough. His strategic and social skills are lacking most of the time.

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: Rocker. He embodies the worst possible scenario of this character type which is someone who is too assertive, lacks social abilities, completely inflexible, doesn’t understand the changeable dynamics of the game. He doesn’t understand the basic rules of the game. He needed to be able to adapt to the game as it happened and re-frame alliances and circumstances but he made several mistakes so apparently he was voted out.

Little Red Riding Hood – This character type has one the game twice. She is a young, usually pageant girl, not game savvy, and whose job is to look great and be really cute.

Pros: She is a threat because she is not a threat. No one is feeling threatened by Jaclyn. She is the ultimate floater. Boys like having her around.

Chances to win the game: She is perfect to have in your alliance because she will do as she’s told and won’t make big moves. She is pretty much a free vote. The only way she will win is if she ends up sitting to the next most hated player in the game. If Boston Rob were playing this season, Jaclyn’s the one he would take to the end. So if she wants to win, she should let someone like Wes or Drew take her to the end and then flip the script on them.

Surfer Dude– This type has won four times and has won more than anyone else.(20-25) easy-going, can be New Age-y, often ridiculously athletic, former or current pro athlete, sports coach, can be very likable, funny, not a control freak, low to medium intelligence.

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: Alec.

Past players: Ozzy, Woo

Pros: He is the least of everyone’s worries and he’s going to sneak right past them.

Cons: Not strategic enough to take control of the game; doesn’t really understand who’s benefiting in the tribe around him; needs to not let himself get talked into things that don’t make sense for his game like taking stronger strategic players to the finals with him.

Chances to win the game: He needs to get in a solid alliance with a good group of people but when it gets down to 7 players, he needs to go on an immunity run because those seven might try to get him out.

Seduce and Destroy – (25-35) young working professional, really arrogant, and the used car salesman type.

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: Drew. He’s the one who thinks he’s way smarter and way more charming than he actually is.

Cons: They don’t see the other elements of the game that are potentially just as important; too competitive; too bossy, outspoken and inclined to get angry when a tribe loses a challenge and starts blaming other people.

Chances to win the game: She needs to get herself into the majority alliance and really think through everything that is happening and why and not get angry when they lose. If she bonds with Alec, it would be a great game move for her. But she really needs to make him feel like he’s calling the shots.

Chances to win the game: He needs to take control of the game without anyone knowing that he’s doing it. He needs to make everyone think that he is in the final to deal with them just like Boston Rob did. He needs to be patient and try not to overthrow the big powers in his alliance too soon (which is usually the downfall of this character type). He needs to choose his alliance members smartly

Chances to win the game: She should be able to make tough choices and be able to work independently from Baylor. She is the perfect goat so she needs to be making enough moves to influence the game without everyone knowing that she’s doing it. She is in a good place if she understands the game well enough to realize that that’s what’s happening.

Erin Brockovich – level-headed, attractive girl, works in an everyday job and she’s often a small business owner; very social, likable, charming, and good at making friends

Chances to win the game: She has a good shot if she gets in with a solid alliance. She should not be seen as untrustworthy. She can’t reveal how smart she is to too many people, maybe just her closest allies. Sometimes this character type can sneak in the back door of the finals but it’s possible for Julie to control the whole game if she’s savvy enough. She is free to play her own game now that Rocky’s gone. She needs not to dissolve into self pity and anger.

Good Ol’ Boy – can be old or young; Southern guy with a thick accent, often a farmer or rancher. The older version is often very funny and entertaining. The young version is really nice to look at

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: Wes and Keith

Past players: Jeremiah, Jay Byars, J.T. (winner)

Pros: Very loyal, very trustworthy, not a strategic threat, very likable, good alliance material

Cons: Inflexible, sees the world as black or white, not terribly game smart

Chances to win the game: They need to not put too much stock in the promises that other people make to them. They need to think through all their angles. They need to take control of their own game and not get shocked when they get betrayed. They need to make sure they’re in the finals with someone that they can out-charm.

Siren – flirty, smart, often works in sales and marketing, 25-30, very charming and beautiful, a little bit conniving

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: Kelley

Past players: Parvati (winner)

Mr. Miyagi – smart, sage, mature man, kind, not super aggressive, not good at backstabbing, very intelligent, likable, down to earth, but sometimes cannot pull the trigger

Who fits in this casting type

This season: Dale

Cons: Sometimes afraid of commitment

Chances to win the game: He will likely be part of the main alliance. But at some point the other men in his alliance and will turn on him and he will not know how to turn that around. He has to think his own strategy through and be able to go for it and seize opportunities as they come up. Rocker’s character type always fixates on this character type and targets him so Dale is safer with Rocker gone.

Ponyboy – Weird The Outsiders character; usually known for bizarre occupation, happy-go-lucky attitude; often extremely athletic

Who fits in this casting type?

This season: Jon Misch. He has to be careful not to lose his place in the alliance

Past players: Erik Reichenbach, Brandon Hantz

Cons: Not quite sure what kind of game he’s playing, gullible, meanders his way to the game, flashes of weirdness

Character Types Not Found In This Season

Heisenberg – intense, middle-aged professional (35-50), often a business owner, chaos-worshiper, can be the bitter old man

Alpha Male Control Freak -(CEO/lawyer/doctor) often already rich. “I make million dollar decisions every day or people die.

Mommy Dearest – (not athletic but strong, can be very biting, intelligent and social), usually soft and squishy, cries a lot

The Specialist – older eccentric guy 40-65, grating, very often a narcissist, control freak, likes to nickname himself and thinks he’s running the game (the biggest loss from an entertainment perspective)

Without the Know-It-All’s and the Chelsea Handler’s, there might seriously be a lack of humorous and smart people. Strategic thinking may be resting on Jeremy, Julie, Josh, and Reed; while Wes and Keith will be carrying the humor for this season.