Britain's departure from the EU may have a bigger effect in Europe than ...

... it has in Britain. Despite all the dire forecasts of Britcollapse following Brexit, the impact in this country of independence is likely to be negligible, either financially or politically, and certainly far less than the impact on the remaining rump of the Union.

Here, Britain's departure will not only diminish the prosperity of the EU but also its standing and influence in the rest of the world. But a much greater influence will be the demonstration that departure is possible at all. There is already a strong (albeit energetically suppressed) undercurrent of disaffection right across the continent of Europe and Britain escape may trigger more open and energetic rebellion.

Ultimately this could well lead to the disintegration of the whole noble, brave but fundamentally flawed European Union experiment, possibly to be eventually replaced by a better, more democratic and genuinely popular structure. But that is an idealistic hope for the long-distant future, perhaps a time when most Continental countries have changed to speaking a common language - possibly English.

The real giveaway is that at present, even the most ardent supporters of 'Remain' all agree that the EU needs major changes and none of them are happy with the way it is at present. Equally obviously, the EU has clearly demonstrated that it is both unwilling and unable to change, even when faced with Britain's threat to leave. The Union's demise will be an inevitable consequence of its arrogant inflexibility.

What I like most about this is how Titus has referenced and justified his claims. I think our politicians could learn a little from Titus - stop making sweeping unjustified and probably unprovable statements but instead backing up the claims with hard facts.

But it's worse to stay in an abusive relationship than to take your chances outside. I learned that by listening to The Archers on Radio 4, where there's a story line about Rob and Helen's marriage gone wrong, then listening to all the experts talking about domestic violence on radio phone ins.

I feel like we are all frogs in a pot that is slowly being heated up. It's going to be bloody painful if we jump out, but if we stay in the pot and the temperate gradually goes up, we could boil to death. Thing is, it doesn't feel too bad as it gets hotter by degrees. But experience tells me we should jump out, rather than get boiled alive, because I'm not really a frog, I'm an allegorical device.

Having said that, I'm prepared to listen to anyone. As long as they don't resort to personal abuse.

No hang on, I can take personal abuse, don't worry about that.

But don't diminish the argument by benchmarking me with 'You Know Who' from that terrible chapter in Europe's history, you know, 'The Event' that took place last century.

However, I conducted a study of Referendum debates, and the average Mean Time to a Hitler Comparison (MTHC) is getting worryingly shorter!

On one level I completely agree with Titus that the impact of Brexit may hit Europe harder than the UK. However, that has long been my major concern - a destabilized Europe. The last thousand years of history would suggest that a Europe at war with itself politically, quickly becomes a real war.

agree with Wren that "it'll hurt them more than us" isn't a comforting thought. in fact this is more the heart of the matter than the 1-2% of budget the EU may or may not cost us. turmoil in Europe, a boost to the little Englanders of Nigel and Gove here, Trump closing in on the White House... well, i guess there's always things to worry about, but that's not a great scenario imho.

on a lighter note, also enjoyed Titus' description of 27 European countries as "the remaining rump of the Union". Is that like England, Wales and NI being the remaining rump of the Union with Scotland?

I think one massive flaw of a united currency is the pressure created when some countries thrive as others don't.

Clearly there is no appetite for any sort of compensation or differential funding/subsidisation as there is within the UK...eg. Wales and Scotland at acting more government spending than tax generation. Germany see themselves as Germany and they are buggered if they'll let Greece of the hook. That's the inherent flaw - you can only be that closely associated if you share a fundamental identity.

What I like most about this is how Titus has referenced and justified his claims. I think our politicians could learn a little from Titus - stop making sweeping unjustified and probably unprovable statements but instead backing up the claims with hard facts.

Yes, I agree, I don't know much about the EU. Certainly much less than this bloke does:

One consequence may be Greece revising their membership of the Euro, emboldened to seek a new independence, possibly incorporating default, definitely incorporating a new devaluing currency. That would be a good thing for Greece.

It may exert a strong check on the EU progression towards simultaneous expansion and homogenisation, and that would be a good thing for its longevity.

It may lead to the creation of a well established two tier construct, with free movement for short stays but with work permit /settlement visa requirements for long term stays or residency.

Longer term it may lead to the rejuvenation of individual countries with thriving national characters in Europe but not subsumed in the EU.

Longer term it may lead to the rejuvenation of individual countries with thriving national characters

Indeed. The success of the United Nations in providing a forum within which sovereign nations can successfully conduct bilateral negotiations and reach amicable, world-wide agreement on everything from international air and marine navigation to telecommunications and SI measurement units shows that these things can be readily achieved without the imposition of any additional layer of administration or 'World Government'.

I feel like we are all frogs in a pot that is slowly being heated up. It's going to be bloody painful if we jump out, but if we stay in the pot and the temperate gradually goes up, we could boil to death. Thing is, it doesn't feel too bad as it gets hotter by degrees. But experience tells me we should jump out, rather than get boiled alive

Good analogy.

... it's worse to stay in an abusive relationship than to take your chances outside.

Greece said a very resounding 'no' in their referendum, then their leaders dropped their kecks and assumed the position anyway.

Strange that the Kinnocks (senior) haven't been allowed anywhere near the Remain campaign. And even stranger that the Leave campaign haven't been playing the old chap's resounding triumphant 'We're alright' alongside a statement of his annual salary.

Ron, yes that's about it. Need to look after the neighbourhood even if it costs a little. (1% govt spend 0.5% gdp is direct cost of EU payments.) Unless Farage actually plans to tow the UK across the Atlantic.

BTW Dun low bond yield generally indicates investor confidence in reliability of issuer, or a bit of macro stimulus. We could do with both.

Its absurd that the concept of EU payments to other nations ever arose in the first place. If 'looking after the neighbourhood' means siphoning UK taxes to French farmers or Italian olive growers (does Italy still claim for a greater area of olive farms than its entire land mass?) then the neighbourhood can jolly well look after itself!