Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Kiss Me, I'm Sadr-ish!

Claiming steady, albeit slow, military and political progress, Petraeus said the "many, many challenges" would not be resolved "in a year or even two years." Similar counterinsurgency operations, he said, citing Britain's experience in Northern Ireland, "have gone at least nine or 10 years."

To be fair, General Petraeus was probably discussing specific counterinsurgency investigations, which the Brits would pursue to the ends of space and timne itself. It's one of the reasons they're so very good at catching terrorists now.

But now that we've been fair, let us proceed to mock this statement. Allow me to don my County Roscommon accent and wave my Grandfather's shillelagh about -- yes, yes, good heft -- okay then ...

Well that's encouraging!

No, seriously. Now at least we have a working model. The whole problem up to this point was the weird operating procedure in which the Bush Administration ignored every historical precedent for nation building and insurgency fighting. Facts, reason, and historical context .. thats atheist thinkin' right thar, pardner.

The only question is:

Does Petraeus mean "the nine or ten years" right after the Potato Famine in 1849 when a million or so died primarily not from famine but from asinine foreign administration, and millions more fled the country? (Hmm, there is a comparison ...) Granted, it was a full thirty years later Fenians blew up Scotland Yard and nearly nabbed the Queen at Jubilee, but after that there was nary a peep, really 'til --

-- the"nine or ten years" after those wee troubles on Easter 1916 (hey, partition! we can try that too). After that there things really settled down to --

-- the "nine or ten years" later, the late 40's into the early 50's, when the S-Plan brought Irish bombers onto British soil for the first time. (I don't know about you, but I'm sure looking forward to that historical parallel catching up with us.) But ignoring the bombings during the 50's in the border territories, maybe he means --

-- the "nine or ten years' of the 60's! In 1962 the government of the Republic of Ireland officially refuted terrorism as a means of gaining reunification -- after a scant forty odd years of terrorism. Once the Maliki -- er -- Republic government refutes terrorism, then plainly there can be no further Troubles ... whoops, looks like the British Troops are sent back in in 1969. Oh. But maybe he means --

-- the "nine or ten years' of the Swingin' Seventies! Once you got Bloody Sunday, The Coach Bombing, the House of Parliament bombings, the Birmingham Pub bombings, and the assassination of Lord Mountbatten (remember, most of that's just the fun happening on British soil) out of the way, Petraeus is perfectly right to say those "nine or ten years" resolved things, as the --

-- "nine or ten years" of the 80's was positively tranquil. Except for when they got Tynan Abbey and blew up a hotel to kill Maggie Thatcher. And the dozens of other smaller scale bits of nastiness. That said, it's not like the next --

-- "nine or ten years" of the 90's weren't, finally, dead quiet. Particularly dead quiet for Ian Gow, the people of London, Manchester, Warrington, and positively catatonic at 10 Downing Street when the mortar shells landed in the back garden.

What have we learned by following General Petraeus' illustrative path into the radiant garden of comprehension?

Well, first we may now understand why the Brits didn't lose their bottle after the 7/7 bombings and generally regarded us with scorn as we wept and gnashed our teeth in sympathy.

Second, at least now we know what we can look forward to. Knowledge is always our friend. Bet you never anticipated Bush's "South Korea" model for Iraq would be the good version, eh?

Only fifty years? We'd be getting off lucky.

Note: The first idiot who attempts to use this history to explain why we need to stay in Iraq to stop al-queda must then proceed through three distinct steps.

a.) Explain how Sunni al-queda will somehow create a "Caliphate" in Shiite-ruled Iraq. Because the massive Shiite majority is gonna be psyched to fold under an oppressive Sunni minority again. They can't wait.b.) Explain away the fact that the only success we've really had in Iraq against the local AQ franchise is when we cut loose the highly competitive Sunni tribal leaders who see them as interlopers. The Sunnis deal with AQI ... quickly.c.) Get punched in the neck, by me, for being a fucking ignorant memechimp.

Not that I necessarily disagree on point, sir, but I'm not sure the one comparison hinting that the Iraqi insurgency will come to the US is COMPLETELY fair, as there is some considerable difference between the 6000 miles or so that separate us from Iraq and the scant 60 between Northern Ireland and Britain (less than that, if you're going to Scotland).

The whole comparison in general is bogus, but I'm not sure it's fair to make the point precisely.

I hope that General doesn't really believe that The Troubles only ran for about a decade. Being what Dubya part of what Dubya described "The generations of young Northern Irelanders striving for peace" by recollections are somewhat different.

But yes the British experience in Ireland is a pretty good model for how to contain low level sectarian mayhem. In Baghdad they seem to be having at least one Omagh style atrocity every day.

What the Irish Problem brilliantly illustrates however is the fact that if you're viewed as an occupier the natives will always make efforts to violently oppose your presences. It's also a good illustrative model for explaining how political grudges can endure for generations and continue to find violent expression.

Just one slight quibble. Bloody Sunday occurred on Northern Irish soil not British. Though the manner in which that massacre served as the best recruiting tool the IRA ever is eerily similar to the method in which the massacring civilians in Fallujah has radicalised the population there.

I hope that General doesn't really believe that The Troubles only ran for about a decade. Being what Dubya part of what Dubya described "The generations of young Northern Irelanders striving for peace" by recollections are somewhat different.

But yes the British experience in Ireland is a pretty good model for how to contain low level sectarian mayhem. In Baghdad they seem to be having at least one Omagh style atrocity every day.

What the Irish Problem brilliantly illustrates however is the fact that if you're viewed as an occupier the natives will always make efforts to violently oppose your presences. It's also a good illustrative model for explaining how political grudges can endure for generations and continue to find violent expression.

Just one slight quibble. Bloody Sunday occurred on Northern Irish soil not British. Though the manner in which that massacre served as the best recruiting tool the IRA ever is eerily similar to the method in which the massacring civilians in Fallujah has radicalised the population there.

a.) Mik Duffy: Bloody Sunday being the exception to that paragraph, yes, sorry. I was focusing more on the other unpleasantness, most of which occurred on British soil..

b.) You know what, John, here's hoping you're right. Here's hoping that some kid who was eleven when his family got wiped out in Fallujah or shot up in a checkpoint in Baghdad does't take it into his head ten, fifteen years from now, when there are still US troops in Iraq, to get himself over here, pretend he has TB so he can drive across the border easily, and then mortar Congress.

But as we've stated before: hope is not a plan. And airfares aren't getting MORE expensive.

This is not to stand, btw, as a blanket statement against interventions, as I'll address in another post. It s simply to remind us that we need to know what we're getting into when we do this stuff. As noted in Hammes work, a short insurgency lasts twenty to thirty years.

John no problem - easy mistake and you're evidently much better informed than most of youir Irish-American brethren. Pint of the black stuiff waiting should you ever make it to Belfast. And technically many of many fellow "Northern Irelanders" consider everywhere in Northern Ireland to be British.

Mercifully things are changing here what with that power sharing Assembly and various hopeful signs that everyone in this corner of the Emerald Isle will be nicer to each other for the next wee while.

Caseyko. re: the question of the British withdrawing from Northern Ireland. It can't and shouldn't happen until an overwhelming majority of NI's population genuinely want it. Blaming the Loyalist/Protestant population here for the historical circumstances of the Plantation is about as fair as blaming modern Americans for the decimation of the Indians.

In more cheerful news I have seen the next episode of Doctor Who and, sweet Jesus, it rocks....

I thought we should have someone here to support Petraeus, so let me present the trained monkey who represents Gingrich's old district.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/6/19/172834/836

Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Ga.): ... I think we need to pay very close attention to what the President says, as called for in the emergency supplemental that we just passed. On July the 15th he will report to the Congress on what the Iraqi parliament, what the government is doing in regards to the benchmarks. And I think that's very important. Maliki needs to respond. And I think we need to listen to General Petraeus, and quite honestly, I will listen to General Petraeus before I will listen Mr. Betray-us with a "B" from all of these Democratic politicians that are more interested in making political hay out of this than solving the problem.

You mean you were seeing those Uwe Boll movies too? I thought it was just me, divine penance for being foolish enough to adopt the "if she's hot and topless, it's an automatic B" movie rating system. No way any TV station in history would show Bloodrayne like 8 times in one day...

"Maybe the English could just withdrawal all together from Ireland and let it be its own nation, warts and all."

Why? The majority of the Northern Irish want to remain part of Britain and have done so for centuries. Go back in history and you will see that the loyalists are not all former colonists but also Anglo-Irish property owners, Protestant converts, native clans and families loyal to the crown and the products of intermarriage. It's a great big melting pot and there's no clean cleavage between 'pure' Irish and Ulstermen. It's the loyalists' land as much as anyone's. And trying to cast the loyalists all as rabid orangemen is bigotry at its worst.

The British involvement since Union has largely been predicated on the notion that the best people to suppress the Irish are the Irish themselves. Loyal Irish against nationalist Irish. British withdrawal, even if we were minded to do so, won't change that landscape much at all.

Even my generation, who were still at primary school when the IRA was last really active, seem to take the 7/7 attacks more in stride than some US citizens.My friend works opposite one of the stations attacked.Within 2 minutes I had a text telling me he and my other friends in London were OK.An hour later I got another message "Stuck in office. Here's my number. Ring me, I'm bored."

This is not a blanket statement, just a story I thought John might appreciate.

Initial treatment for mild to moderate disease consists of increasing fiber intake, oral fluids to maintain hydration, NSAIDs to help with pain, and rest. caramengobatiwasirambeientanpaharusoperasiamanjoss A number of minor procedures may be performed if symptoms are severe or do not improve with conservative management. Surgery is reserved for those who fail to improve following these measures. Up to half of people may experience problems with hemorrhoids at some point in their lives. Outcomes are usually good.

The signs and symptoms of hemorrhoids depend on the type present. Internal hemorrhoids usually present with painless rectal bleeding, while external hemorrhoids may produce few symptoms or if thrombosed significant pain and swelling in the area of the anus. caramengobatiwasirambeientanpaharusoperasiamanjoss Many people incorrectly refer to any symptom occurring around the anal-Zectal area as "hemorrhoids" and serious causes of the symptoms should be ruled out. While the exact cause of hemorrhoids remains unknown, a number of factors which increase intra-abdominal pressure, in particular constipation, is believed to play a role in their development.

Internal hemorrhoids are located in the inside lining of the rectum and cannot be felt. They are usually painless and make their presence known because blood is seen with a bowel movement. Internal hemorrhoids can prolapse or protrude through the anus.External hemorrhoids are located underneath the skin that surrounds the anus. howtotreathemorrhoidsnaturallywithoutsurgeryandsafe They can be felt when they swell and may cause itching, pain, or bleeding with a bowel movement. A thrombosed external hemorrhoid occurs when blood within the vein clots, and may cause significant pain.

The most common symptom and sign from hemorrhoids is painless bleeding. There may be bright red blood on the outside of the stools, on the toilet paper, or dripping into the toilet. howtotreathemorrhoidsnaturallywithoutsurgeryandsafe The bleeding usually is self-limiting. Bleeding with a bowel movement is never normal and should prompt a visit to a health care professional. While hemorrhoids are the most common cause of bleeding with a bowel movement, there may be other reasons for bleeding including inflammatory bowel disease, infection, and tumors.