Wow, Andrew Sullivan and his compatriots at the Daily Beast are freakingthe fuckout. A bad performance in Denver is Obama forfeiting the election, or evidence that he doesn't even want to win.

I hear decaf tastes almost as good as the regular stuff.

A while back, perhaps during the last election cycle, SirEverlast referenced him as "Excitable Andy" and now I think I'm coming to understand why. For the last three years, and up until the last debate, Sullivan has been lauding Obama's political acumen, using "Meep meep!" to reference Obama's roadrunnering of clueless Republicans and their failed political games.

Wow, Andrew Sullivan and his compatriots at the Daily Beast are freakingthe fuckout. A bad performance in Denver is Obama forfeiting the election, or evidence that he doesn't even want to win.

I hear decaf tastes almost as good as the regular stuff.

A while back, perhaps during the last election cycle, SirEverlast referenced him as "Excitable Andy" and now I think I'm coming to understand why. For the last three years, and up until the last debate, Sullivan has been lauding Obama's political acumen, using "Meep meep!" to reference Obama's roadrunnering of clueless Republicans and their failed political games.

And now, one debate later, suddenly it's the end of the world.

Well Nate is giving Romney now a 25% chance to win, which is double what it was before the debate.

Well Nate is giving Romney now a 25% chance to win, which is double what it was before the debate.

Massive likelihood of ~305 electoral votes for President Obama vs ~230 for Romney is still a 0% chance to win for Romney.

I don't know. Romney has some serious momentum right now. he's controlling the narrative; he looks like he has all the answers, even in foreign policy (which is what he's moved the conversation to now). He has effectively downplayed the negatives and just keeps saying things everyone likes to hear.

Well Nate is giving Romney now a 25% chance to win, which is double what it was before the debate.

Massive likelihood of ~305 electoral votes for President Obama vs ~230 for Romney is still a 0% chance to win for Romney.

I don't know. Romney has some serious momentum right now. he's controlling the narrative; he looks like he has all the answers, even in foreign policy (which is what he's moved the conversation to now). He has effectively downplayed the negatives and just keeps saying things everyone likes to hear.

Yeah. I hate to admit it, as an American, but the outright lies, stealing of POTUS's actions and using them as unique ideas, and weird new bad boy image are working for him.

Well Nate is giving Romney now a 25% chance to win, which is double what it was before the debate.

Yeah, but if you read his article on that, he received a large jump, about 4%, just from that Pew poll, which seems to be about the only poll that has shown such a huge change in the race. All the other polls have basically returned to a pre-conventions level of Obama leading by about 2-3%. It'll probably be another few days before we can be sure if the Pew poll is just an outlier, but it certainly seems that it is.

At this point, It's really a question of if Obama will shoot himself in the other foot, after that horrible first debate. It will be interesting to see if Biden offers any nuggets for soundbites on Friday.

A media manufactured Romney bounce to keep the ad buys flowing, the edge-of-seat interest in the reporting of minutae, etc -- by sheer force of will and ubiquity.

The general sentiment in the hours following the debate was that overall it was very dull, with neither candidate looking particularly impressive but with Romney given a small edge due to a particularly lackluster performance by Obama.

Now, about a week later, Romneys small edge as reported by those who actually watched the debate and analyzed it immediately following has been turned into a decisive asswhupping in which Romney masterfully sliced and diced the hapless Obama as reported by pretty much everyone in the MSM. So it's the concesus opinion and its feeding on itself: the media's need for a close race has narrowed the gap by the sheer force of hype.

A media manufactured Romney bounce to keep the ad buys flowing, the edge-of-seat interest in the reporting of minutae, etc -- by sheer force of will and ubiquity.

The general sentiment in the hours following the debate was that overall it was very dull, with neither candidate looking particularly impressive but with Romney given a small edge due to a particularly lackluster performance by Obama.

Now, about a week later, Romneys small edge as reported by those who actually watched the debate and analyzed it immediately following has been turned into a decisive asswhupping in which Romney masterfully sliced and diced the hapless Obama as reported by pretty much everyone in the MSM. So it's the concesus opinion and its feeding on itself: the media's need for a close race has narrowed the gap by the sheer force of hype.

Hence my comment in the SRB thread, which seems also appropriate here:

me wrote:

I personally think the issue isn't how radicalized politics actually is... but how radicalized politicians and the media want the public to perceive politics as currently being.

IDK, I've seen debates in the past where the immediate reaction seemed quite a bit different from the narrative in the next several days. Maybe it was the complete doom and gloom that MSNBC had immediately after the debate, but I've had the same vibe from the media: Solid Romney victory, Obama way off his game, from the end of the debate through today. The only media spin I'm seeing is the complete frenzy that the Pew poll has created, with a lot of articles seeming to have forgotten that there even ARE other polls out there, let alone that they show something very different.

Quote:

"Is there anything more exciting than Joe Biden thinking it's up to him to get the lead back?"--Seth Myers

I'm actually looking very forward to the Biden/Ryan debate. Biden can be a very good attack dog, and Ryan is going to have to choose to either completely abandon his own budget plan, or cut it loose so he can try being fuzzy about the numbers like Romney was. But expect Biden to try to nail gun him back to the Ryan budget at every opportunity. Expect a lot of "well I'm not talking about that budget, I'm talking about the Romney plan" with a lot of "but it's YOUR budget plan! Don't you think it's a good idea anymore? Didn't your running mate praise that plan? What's wrong with it?"

Biden's best chance, in my opinion, is that the VP debate moderator sees the shit job Lehrer did an decides to be a cast-iron bitch ("bitches get stuff done"). The less time Ryan has to lie his ass off while getting the last word, the better Biden's chances of doing some damage control for the campaign.

He also personally has a significantly different policy outlook and legislative history than the Romney campaign. If Biden can get him to admit that, yeah, these are my positions, and these are my past actions, but now I'm hitched to Romney so I'm compromising them, that could be very good for Democrats

A media manufactured Romney bounce to keep the ad buys flowing, the edge-of-seat interest in the reporting of minutae, etc -- by sheer force of will and ubiquity.

The general sentiment in the hours following the debate was that overall it was very dull, with neither candidate looking particularly impressive but with Romney given a small edge due to a particularly lackluster performance by Obama.

Now, about a week later, Romneys small edge as reported by those who actually watched the debate and analyzed it immediately following has been turned into a decisive asswhupping in which Romney masterfully sliced and diced the hapless Obama as reported by pretty much everyone in the MSM. So it's the concesus opinion and its feeding on itself: the media's need for a close race has narrowed the gap by the sheer force of hype.

Err... the opinion polls taken 10-15 minutes after the debate was over showed Romney winning by over 60%, something that's *never* happened before in all the years they've taken opinion polls.

Right after the debate was over it was pretty much declared a major victory for Romney, with Democrats hoping that after people had a chance to review things and notice that Romney basically changed his stance across the board and lied about things that people would change their mind.

The idea that this was at any point and time considered a close debate and that the media made this story is as wierd as seeing Republicans claim that the media is 100% behind Obama and spinning everything they can to make him look better.

Biden's best chance, in my opinion, is that the VP debate moderator sees the shit job Lehrer did an decides to be a cast-iron bitch ("bitches get stuff done"). The less time Ryan has to lie his ass off while getting the last word, the better Biden's chances of doing some damage control for the campaign.

He also personally has a significantly different policy outlook and legislative history than the Romney campaign. If Biden can get him to admit that, yeah, these are my positions, and these are my past actions, but now I'm hitched to Romney so I'm compromising them, that could be very good for Democrats

EDIT: What thekaj said.

Biden won't be hamstrung by things like looking Presidential, or even the kid gloves he needed for the first debate with Palin. On the former, his rhetorical style (gaffes) is a known quantity. On the latter, he still did well against Sarah's "Oh, Joe" snarks. He can handle Ryan without a moderator. (Please note the use of "can" and not "will.")

Biden, for all his occasional gaffes, is a smart dude who's always impeccably prepared. If he chooses to come out swinging, Ryan's in a heap of trouble.

In my ideal world Biden would continually call out Ryan on the heaps of untruths he knowingly spouts at every opportunity, but in reality it'll probably be toned way down. Could get interesting though.

Biden won't be hamstrung by things like looking Presidential, or even the kid gloves he needed for the first debate with Palin.

The second part is very definitely true. Recall that 4 years ago, Palin was already considered to be a disaster, and the concern was that Biden could actually look like he was a black belt full on sparring with a 5 year old kid.

Quote:

To be fair, we all felt this way about President Obama as well.

Very true. But I have high hopes that the Obama campaign actually listened to the unanimous opinion that not forcefully responding to Romney's attacks in favor of keeping his likeability numbers up was a boneheaded move that won't be repeated. Then again, is there any information on Ryan's debating skills? He talks in front of a camera quite a bit, but any word on his congressional campaign debates?

Well Nate is giving Romney now a 25% chance to win, which is double what it was before the debate.

Yeah, but if you read his article on that, he received a large jump, about 4%, just from that Pew poll, which seems to be about the only poll that has shown such a huge change in the race. All the other polls have basically returned to a pre-conventions level of Obama leading by about 2-3%. It'll probably be another few days before we can be sure if the Pew poll is just an outlier, but it certainly seems that it is.

This. It looks like all of Romney major gains come from a single Pew Poll.

I'd like to think that, but a sufficiently skilled debater can dodge and weave out of such situations and get the other person playing defense. Sounds like we might not have enough information on what kind of debater Ryan is. I would suspect from his interviews that he'll just continue repeating the lies in the face of Biden's counter-claims. Whether he ends up with a deer-in-the-headlights look when he does it, or pulls off a convincing "I can't believe this guy keeps making shit up" look, I don't know.

It depends on if Biden actually calls him a liar to his face. VP debates have been known to be that frank. Ryan would have to respond to an actual accusation backed up with a list of changed opinions and prior statements.

At this point, It's really a question of if Obama will shoot himself in the other foot, after that horrible first debate. It will be interesting to see if Biden offers any nuggets for soundbites on Friday.

Democrats should be worried. After all, wasn't Romney's debate simply a cloning of Paul Ryan's entire persona? Simply throwing random numbers and data at the audience without any concern for their accuracy, validity, or authenticity is how Ryan built his entire career. Now Biden, a guy who can charitably be called a less skilled debater than Obama, is going to be facing a guy who is the personification of Romney's debate strategy.

Anyone with their fingers crossed for wounds to be staunched this week might best not get their hopes too high.

Then again, is there any information on Ryan's debating skills? He talks in front of a camera quite a bit, but any word on his congressional campaign debates?

He tends to turn tail when pressed with any remotely challenging question or detail request.

Yeah, at speaking events and such, but in a debate?

He debates like an autistic kid in Math league, just vomiting forth numbers. Except he's more smirky. It actually kind of works until you realize he's just making shit up like an out-of-touch CEO through out terms like cloud computing because he saw it a few times on the cover of some trade magazine in the airport. Picture basically Romney's debate with even more random numbers pulled from his ass being spoken by a grown-up Eddy Munster. It comes across wonkish and smart if you don't really pay attention. And I'm not sure the American voting public pays attention.

The youtube video isn't going to lend anything to either of our opinions. dotorg in typical dotorg style calls it a debate clip, but it's an interview where Ryan simply represents the R talking head and managed to recite a memorized paragraph for thirty seconds of the three minutes.

I've actually seen Ryan in an actual debate, and it's just an ADD version of Romney's debate the other night.

Bear in mind that I think his particular strategy is effective. I think it worked well for Romney, and I think there's a very good chance it will work well and play well against Biden, too. I'm sure I had very vivid descriptions of Palin's debate style, but I never for a moment would have said there was a chance that style would be effective. That's not the case here as I think there's a good chance Ryan will do well.