Media Release: Fossil fuel sector in denial over demand destruction

LONDON/NEW YORK, October 22 — Rapid advances in technology, increasingly cheaper renewable energy, slower economic growth and lower than expected population rise could all dampen fossil fuel demand significantly by 2040, a new study published today by the London-based CarbonTracker Initiative finds.

The analysis challenges nine BAU assumptions made by the big energy companies when calculating that fossil use will continue to grow for the next few decades. Typical industry scenarios see coal, oil and gas use growing by 30%-50% and still making up 75% of the energy supply mix in 2040. These scenarios do not reflect the huge potential for reducing fossil fuel demand in accordance with decarbonisation pathways.

The in-depth analysis exposes that fossil fuel industry thinking is skewed to the upside, and relies too heavily on high demand assumptions to justify new and costly capital investments to shareholders. Reviewing previous industry, EIA and IEA projections, shows them to be too conservative in their expectations for renewables growth. This raises questions over the likely accuracy of their future projections.

CarbonTracker’s head of research, James Leaton, said: “We have seen in recent weeks how the fossil fuel sector has misled consumers and investors about emissions — the Volkswagen scandal being a case in point — and deliberately acted against climate science for decades, judging from the recent Exxon expose. Why should investors accept their claims about future coal and oil demand when they clearly don’t stack up with technology and policy developments?

“Investors need to challenge companies who are ignoring the demand destruction that the market sees coming through much sooner than the business as usual scenarios being cited by the industry. Otherwise they will be on the wrong side of the energy revolution.”

The report, entitled Lost in transition: How the energy sector is missing potential demand destruction, examines alternative trajectories to mainstream energy industry modelling, produced by reputable financial houses like Bernstein and CitiGroup, that signal a more concerted drive to a low-carbon energy transition, hitting fossil fuel demand as a result.

The study finds that conventional fossil fuel company business models could be woefully behind the curve due to, for example, underestimating changes in emissions policy, technological advances or energy efficiency gains that can cause dramatic changes in demand trends. This is the first time a wide-range of fossil fuel industry demand scenarios has been compared with alternative and credible financial market views.

The analysis shows how the industry is assuming very slow incremental changes in the energy supply mix going forward. This ignores the potential downside risk explored in the research. Across all factors contributing to energy demand there is scope for reducing future emissions levels and staying within the 2˚C threshold. This includes considering different fundamental market conditions relating to population rise and GDP growth as well as more obvious advances in energy efficiency and clean technology.

CarbonTracker’s senior analyst and co-author, Luke Sussams, said:

“The incumbents are taking the easy way out by exclusively looking at incremental changes to the energy mix which they can adapt to slowly. The real threat lies in the potential for low-carbon technologies to combine and transform society’s relationship with energy. This is currently being overlooked by Big oil, coal and gas.”

Key findings of the report are (Please see Executive Summary for detail):

• Global population growth may not rise to 9 billion by 2040 – the UN’s 2015 median-variant forecast applied by all fossil fuel companies – but may only climb to 8.3 billion according to climatic and socioeconomic modelling.

• GDP growth could be lower than expected in major markets, including China and the U.S. For example, the OECD sees global GDP grow at 3.1% to 2040 rather than the 3.4% assumed by the IEA – a key industry reference point. This difference equates to roughly a drop in demand equivalent to half a year’s global energy demand in 2012.

• Moreover, the world is increasing its ability to decouple energy demand from economic growth. For example, we find that if global energy intensity of GDP falls by 2.8% per annum as opposed to 2.2% in the IEA’s New Policy Scenario, demand is drastically lower.

• Incumbents generally expect carbon fuels to make up 75% of energy demand by 2040. This is inconsistent with the decarbonisation plans of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). We calculate that fossil fuel company scenarios see cumulative CO2 emissions to 2030 being up to 100GtCO2 higher than in an INDC scenario. This higher carbon intensity assumptions overlooks the fact that huge shifts are occurring in the energy sector:

o The speed and scale of advancements in the competitiveness of renewable energy technologies is exceeding expectations. We show the extent to which the IEA in particular have been hugely conservative in the past and remain so compared to other industry forecasts.

o Cost reductions of energy (battery) storage are seven years ahead of average forecasts made last year, meaning the technology could be cost-competitive with power grids by 2025. The synergy between energy storage and renewable energy technologies has the potential to transform energy markets, but is not being factored into fossil fuel scenarios.

o Global coal demand is structurally declining. China has shifted its energy system to such a degree that peak coal demand could occur in the very near-term. India has an ambitious short-term solar PV plan (160GW of solar and wind by 2022) that, by our calculations, could displace 158 million tonnes – roughly India’s total coal imports in 2012.

o Companies expect oil demand to grow between 0.4% and 0.8% a year to 2040, much from the road transport sector, oil’s biggest market. However, efficiency regulations of combustion engine cars will hit oil demand in the short-term. Longer-term, oil industry scenarios see negligible take-up of electric vehicles (EVs) by 2040 but EVs could be cost-competitive with combustion engines by 2025 according to alternative forecasts, resulting in exponential growth.

o All scenarios see future growth in gas demand. But as energy markets change, the levels of gas demand will be lower if the fuel loses its base-load role and switches to being a backup for renewables.