Mid-season Analysis

So the 49ers are sitting here at midseason and are they different than previous years? At first blush, no. They are in the midst of a four-game losing streak, no different than four of the last five seasons when they went through three seven-game losing streaks and one six-gamer.

Over the past several seasons, they’ve gotten to mid-season and been unsettled at quarterback. This year, same thing. And while the defense has shown improvement, they are just never quite good enough. Same thing this year.

If guys like Tarell Brown emerge, the future looks bright.

All that being said, I’ve never been more optimistic about the 49ers’ direction. In prior years, everyone wondered who was going to lead them and what was going to propel them to a winning season. This year, it’s different.

Team president Jed York has done a lot of things right. In a devastated economy, he’s putting millions into refurbishing the team’s facility so it can once again attract top free agents. While the stadium effort is painfully slow, there’s discernible movement with the city of Santa Clara and the team ready to put a measure on the ballot next year.

The team has a strong head coach with a keen sense of his players and a unique ability to motivate. The team has hit on some draft choices: Frank Gore, Patrick Willis, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Dashon Goldson, Tarell Brown, Joe Staley, and yes, maybe even Alex Smith and they have others with exciting potential such as Nate Davis.

But what’s most exciting is what they are doing on the field. The team is recognizing that they have a potentially dynamic offense with a move towards a spread type of scheme, and there’s a good chance if they stick with it, they could have a top ten offense.

But what’s frustrating offensively, is it probably won’t happen this year. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye told his former quarterback, Rich Gannon, that he’s trying to build up Smith’s confidence and trying to get Smith to trust him. Raye told Gannon that what he discovered when he first met Smith was a distrusting quarterback with little or no confidence. Raye said building him back up again would take time. Also, merging to a more open scheme will also take time, but just look at the potential.

Functioning out of a hurry up offense, Smith has already led six long touchdown drives in two-and-a-half games. When they opened it up on Sunday, the offense gained 358 yards, scored 27 points, recorded 25 first downs and and held the ball for nearly 34 minutes, this despite the four turnovers. Does Alex Smith look horrible at times? Absolutely. But wait until he can acclimate to an offense that finally suits his skills and wait until Crabtree finally has a chance to learn the playbook instead of just learning the game plan each week.

There’s a huge difference with this Alex Smith compared to his previous versions – the production is there. He can move an offense, sometimes dynamically; now just wait until he knows enough to eliminate mistakes.

Defensively, this season has been a disappointment. But mainly that stems from an offense that constantly throws them back on the field. Nevertheless, the defense has some glaring flaws – they have yet to develop an outside pass rusher and they don’t have enough speed in the secondary. Again, those problems can be remedied with another draft and maybe a free agent or two. Yet this defense has shown enough improvement under defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to prove that the scheme is sound and that Manusky can coach.

The 49ers are losing and the playoffs are once again a remote possibly, but unlike previous years when the one former employee used to joke about the organization being two or three years away from the five-year plan, this team has a viable direction. And sometimes, that’s all you need.