ncaa-footballAugust 26, 2017 11:12am EDTAugust 17, 2017 8:51am EDTSporting News breaks down the best and worst case for every team ranked in our Preseason Top 25. What's the best (or worst) that could happen?

Share:

Best season ever! Worst season ever!

That’s what "talkin' season" is all about in college football, but we’re getting that much closer to the 2017 season. Excitement always exceeds expectations, and those teams in the Sporting News Preseason Top 25 inevitably feel like they belong in the College Football Playoff.

25Tennessee

Best case: Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano seizes control as starting quarterback in a convincing Labor Day victory against Georgia Tech. The defensive line flourishes under Brady Hoke, and John Kelly is a star at running back. The Vols knock off rivals Florida and Georgia in September and, despite a loss at Alabama in Tuscaloosa, surge back to the SEC championship game for the first time since 2007 with a 10-2 record.

Worst case: Georgia Tech beats the Vols on a last-second field goal, and the panic in Knoxville doesn't stop after losses to Florida and Georgia. Tennessee is shocked by South Carolina at home and another loss to Alabama gives the Vols a 2-5 start. The fight to stay bowl eligible is on, and that turns up the heat on Butch Jones.

24Pittsburgh

Best case: USC transfer Max Browne settles in front of an impressive group of running backs led by Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, and the Panthers beat Penn State in Happy Valley in another thriller in Week 2 before knocking off Oklahoma State at home the following week. The Panthers trip up once in ACC play, but those nonconference wins keep Pitt in the playoff conversation heading into the ACC championship game.

Worst case: The defense's inconsistency under Pat Narduzzi is again exposed in losses to Penn State and Oklahoma State. The ACC tour is another up-and-down run, and the Panthers finish 7-5 in the regular season before dropping a bowl game for the third straight year.

23Washington State

Best case: The Cougars win the opener for the first time under Mike Leach against Montana State and parlay that into a win against Boise State the following week. Quarterback Luke Falk uses the hot start to vault into early Heisman contention — a case made with a Friday night victory against USC that resonates through October. Washington State splits with Stanford and Washington in November and advances to the Pac-12 championship game.

Worst case: Montana State shocks Washington State in the opener, and Boise State drops the Cougars to 0-2. This time, the Cougars can't get back on track. USC and Oregon beat the Cougars, and a three-game stretch against Stanford, Utah and Washington at the end of the season is brutal. Washington State scrapes into a bowl game with a 6-6 record.

22South Florida

Best case: South Florida lives up to its status as a Group of 5 buster thanks to quarterback Quinton Flowers, who leads the nation in total offense. The Bulls cap an undefeated run through the AAC and emerge as the only undefeated team in the regular season. How far into the College Football Playoff conversation would that get South Florida?

Worst case: Illinois ruins the Bulls' undefeated dream in a Week 4 thriller, and South Florida endures the same fate as Houston last year with a few tough road nonconference losses. Strong has the same ups and downs as every other first-year coach.

21Texas

Best case: Tom Herman brings immediate results that match his early success in recruiting. Quarterback Shane Buechele benefits the most and emerges as a fringe Heisman candidate, while linebacker Malik Jefferson lives up to his first-round draft pick potential. Texas loses close at USC, but the confidence grows with each week heading into the Red River Rivalry with Oklahoma. Herman wins that game and sets up a huge showdown with Oklahoma State the following week. Texas wins 10 games — and they are the surprise contestant in the Big 12 championship.

Worst case: Maryland hangs with the Longhorns in the opener and nearly pulls the upset. Buechele is still working out the kinks in a new-look offense, and the running game is hit-or-miss. The defense still can’t get enough stops. USC exposes that, and the two-week stretch against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State shows how far Texas needs to come on all sides. Texas makes it back to the postseason with a 7-5 record.

20West Virginia

Best case: Will Grier keeps the offense running, and then some. Grier’s emergence at quarterback helps the Mountaineers to a fast start with a huge victory against Virginia Tech in the opener. West Virginia rolls Oklahoma State in a top 10 showdown on Oct. 28 and takes a perfect record into the regular-season finale at Oklahoma. What have the Mountaineers learned from last year’s 56-28 loss? Dana Holgorsen is a Coach of the Year candidate.

Worst case: Virginia Tech spoils Grier’s debut, and the Mountaineers never truly recover. They struggle on the road at TCU, Baylor and Kansas State, and Oklahoma State and Oklahoma beat the Mountaineers at home. The Mountaineers finish in the 8-5 (or even 7-6) range and fail to build on last year’s 10-3 record. That puts Holgorsen on the hot seat.

19Miami (Fla.)

Best case: The talent is there, and it shows. Malik Rosier takes hold of the starting job at quarterback, Mark Walton becomes a Heisman Trophy candidate at running back and Mark Richt gets "The U" rolling again. We’ve heard that before, but we start to believe it when the Hurricanes knock off Florida State in Tallahassee on Sept. 16. Miami stays perfect before splitting home games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but it's enough to get the Canes into their first ACC championship game — where Florida State is waiting for a rematch.

Worst case: Rosier eventually settles in, but the Canes are whacked by Florida State again, and Toledo gives Miami all it can handle the following week. Georgia Tech beats Miami coming off a bye. Richt holds the ship together enough, but it’s another 8-4 season. Miami must wait another year for a shot at the ACC Coastal.

18Stanford

Best case: Bryce Love shows in the Aug. 26 opener why he could be the next superstar running back for the Cardinal, and that helps Keller Chryst ease back in after a knee injury suffered in the Sun Bowl. Stanford’s interior re-asserts itself as the best offensive line in the Pac-12, amplified with a statement win against USC on Sept. 9. The Cardinal brave a brutal first-half schedule into November, where Washington, Cal and Notre Dame all come to Stanford Stadium. That means double-digit wins again under David Shaw. They are the playoff sleeper we should have projected all along.

Worst case: USC offers a reality check on Sept. 9. when Sam Darnold picks apart Stanford’s defense. The first half of the season is hit-or-miss against UCLA, Utah and Oregon. The Cardinal head into late October with two losses, and they lose two more during a month-long stretch that includes Washington State, Washington and Notre Dame. That’s an 8-4 season in a Pac-12 North that isn't slowing down.

17Kansas State

Best case: The Wildcats live up to the preseason hype with the experience around quarterback Jesse Ertz. Bill Snyder's health remains a concern, but the coach thrives in a season where the Wildcats enjoy another breakthrough. The schedule sets up for a fast start, and a sellout crowd pushes K-State past Oklahoma on Oct. 21. Despite one Big 12 slipup, the Wildcats play their way in to the conference championship game with late-season victories against West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

Worst case: The Wildcats' road woes continue, and that starts with a shocking loss to Vanderbilt on Sept. 16 on a late touchdown pass from Kyle Shurmur. K-State never truly recovers after the bye week and falls to Texas on Oct. 7. Oklahoma eliminates the Wildcats from Big 12 contention, and they lose those late-season November games, too. A 7-5 season isn’t what Snyder — or the fan-base — expected. The Wildcats head to another second-tier bowl.

16Oklahoma State

Best case: The Cowboys deliver on the sky-high expectations with the prolific tag-team of quarterback Mason Rudolph and receiver James Washington, who leave Heisman voters with a difficult choice between the two after respective record-breaking seasons. The defense improves just enough, and Oklahoma State solidifies its playoff push by knocking out Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma in three consecutive weeks from Oct. 21-Nov. 4. Instead of hanging around the playoff picture, the Cowboys are an undefeated, virtual lock heading into the Big 12 championship rematch against rival Oklahoma. Win and get in, right?

Worst case: Oklahoma State can't avoid the trap of playing at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, and a late interception seals the Week 3 nonconference loss that dogs the Cowboys throughout the season. They split road games against Texas and West Virginia before losing again to Baker Mayfield-led Oklahoma. The Cowboys get a shot at a rematch in the Big 12 championship game against the Sooners, but they are handed a fourth loss and sent home with another defeat against their biggest rivals.

15Florida

Best case: The suspension of seven players — including Antonio Callaway — galvanizes the team around Jim McElwain in a season-opening battle with Michigan at Jerry World. The Gators pull out a victory on a last-second field goal. Either Feleipe Franks, Luke Del Rio or Malik Zaire takes command of the quarterback role, and the defense blooms under new coordinator Randy Shannon. With five home games in six weeks, the Gators seize control of the SEC East before beating Georgia again. A thrilling win against Florida State ensues in the regular season finale. That earns the Gators a third shot at Alabama in the SEC championship and, this time, a shot at the playoff.

Worst case: The suspension takes its toll in a blowout loss to Michigan. Tennessee beats the Gators in The Swamp two weeks later, and LSU beats Florida in another heated contest on Oct. 8. Georgia hammers down the Gators, and so does Florida State. Florida limps into a bowl game with a 7-5 record.

14LSU

Best case: Ed Orgeron’s first full season is a hit. Danny Etling or Myles Brennan emerges as more than just a game manager under new offensive Matt Canada, and that blends to perfection with running back Derrius Guice. Arden Key leads the nation in sacks, and the Tigers make good on all their talent with a big win against BYU and a three-game stretch that includes victories against Florida, Auburn and Ole Miss. LSU takes a perfect record to Tuscaloosa and all the momentum into its SEC West title shot. Will things change this time?

Worst case: A similar horror show unfolds in Coach O's first year. Etling and/or Brennan struggles in the opener in a scare against BYU, and their struggles are exposed in a hotly contested loss against Florida. Auburn piles on, and Ole Miss beats LSU — after news breaks that has Les Miles agreed to take over in Oxford starting in 2018. LSU starts a brutal November slate with loss No. 4 of the season against Alabama, and is in danger of falling to 7-5 — or worse.

13Wisconsin

Best case: Alex Hornibrook takes the next step at quarterback while the Badgers take the same time-tested approach in their defense of the Big Ten West Division. Linebacker Jack Cichy’s season-ending injury is a blow, but Paul Chryst and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard scheme around it. Wisconsin takes control of the Big Ten West with back-to-back wins against Northwestern and Nebraska; November wins against Iowa and Michigan put the Badgers in the top five in the playoff rankings. All it takes is a victory in Indianapolis against one of those Big Ten East powerhouses to seal a date in the playoff.

Worst case: The defense struggles to overcome Cichy's loss early in the season. A true tailback doesn’t emerge in the Badgers' backfield, and a close shave at BYU casts doubt on Wisconsin. Northwestern wins at Camp Randall Stadium on Sept. 30, and the Badgers split with Nebraska and Iowa before ending the season with back-to-back losses against Michigan and Minnesota. P.J. Fleck celebrates by "rowing the boat" with Paul Bunyan’s Axe to the postgame news conference. Wisconsin is left to explain away an 8-4 season.

12Louisville

Best case: Lamar Jackson is bigger, better and badder as the returning Heisman Trophy winner, and a stat-stuffing victory against Purdue at Lucas Oil Stadium is a reminder. Louisville beats Clemson two weeks later and takes early control of the ACC Atlantic Division race. Bobby Petrino’s best season as a coach continues, and new defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon is a difference-maker. The Cardinals beat Florida State and Kentucky, too, and despite one slip-up, go to the ACC championship game with a chance to make the playoff. Dez Fitzpatrick wins the Biletnikoff Award. Jackson has a chance to win that second Heisman trophy.

Worst case: The opener turns into a shootout, and Purdue, led by former Louisville quarterback and first-year coach Jeff Brohm, shocks the Cards in triple overtime. The defense never finds its groove, and the offense struggles to run the football. Clemson wins another thriller at Papa John’s Stadium two weeks later. The Cardinals fall in road games at N.C. State and Florida State and risk losing a fifth game at Kentucky.

11Auburn

Best case: Newly minted starter Jarrett Stidham is everything and more at quarterback. His ability to stretch the field in the vertical passing game, paired with running backs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson, gives new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey a remarkably potent offense. That comes into fruition when the Tigers knock off Clemson in Death Valley in a shootout, and doesn’t stop in a run through the SEC West. The Tigers win two of three in road trips to LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M, setting up a winner-take-all-showdown against Alabama at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Nov. 25. That’s all you can ask for.

Worst case: Stidham struggles in the opener against Georgia Southern, and Gus Malzahn plays two quarterbacks in a loss at Clemson. The Tigers win just one of those three straight road games, and Georgia wins a tight one at Jordan-Hare on Nov. 11. Malzahn hot seat talk is the topic du jour heading into the Iron Bowl, and the Crimson Tide leave no room for drama in a three-score victory. Auburn finishes 7-5.

10Georgia

Best case: Georgia delivers on preseason expectations. Jacob Eason is a more consistent passer, and Nick Chubb and Sony Michel both rush for more than 1,000 yards. The defense is salty, too, evident in early-season statement victories against Appalachian State and Notre Dame. Georgia climbs into the top five after routing Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, and Kirby Smart avenges first-year losses to Florida and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs lose at Auburn, but that’s OK — they head to Atlanta with an 11-1 record and a shot for the SEC championship.

Worst case: Eason vs. Jake Fromm becomes a controversy after a shaky opener at App State. Notre Dame blasts the Bulldogs in South Bend, and Tennessee takes control of the division at the end of the month. Two-loss Georgia trips up against two opponents in Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech in the second half of the season — with another upset against either Kentucky or South Carolina lumped in. The Bulldogs end with a five-loss season. Making matters worse, Mark Richt and Miami play for an ACC championship on the final week of the regular season.

9Michigan

Best case: Michigan's young talent blossoms sooner than expected under Jim Harbaugh, and the unveiling is another convincing victory against Florida at Jerry World. Quarterback Wilton Speight builds on last season, the running game is improved with Chris Evans and Rashan Gary evolves into the best defensive player in the Big Ten. Donovan Peoples-Jones and Aubrey Solomon are immediate contributors on offense and defense, respectively. The Wolverines split tough road games at Penn State and Wisconsin but head into the regular-season finale against Ohio State with a chance to clinch the Big Ten East Division — again — in front of a record crowd at the Big House.

Worst case: An over-confident Michigan team loses the opener against Florida, and the youth movement takes longer than expected. Michigan State and Penn State beat the Wolverines, too, and P.J. Fleck almost steals the Little Brown Jug in a near-upset on Nov. 4. Back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State close a 7-5 season, and the Harbaugh honeymoon is over heading into an uneasy fourth year in Ann Arbor.

8Washington

Best case: The beat goes on under Chris Petersen. Think of it in terms of his time at Boise State: The pieces change, but the results stay the same. Quarterback Jake Browning puts together a Heisman-caliber season with help from running back Myles Gaskin and receiver Dante Pettis. The defense finds it way with All-American linebacker Azeem Victor, and Washington rolls into the last three games against Stanford, Utah and Washington State with a 9-0 record, winning all three. That sets up a blockbuster Pac-12 championship game against USC.

Worst case: The heavy losses on defense show, and there’s a hangover of sorts from last year’s College Football Playoff run. A loss at Colorado on Sept. 23 exposes that, and two losses in the final three games drop Washington to 9-3. Which two games would Washington fans want to lose the least?

7Oklahoma

Best case: The transition from Bob Stoops to Lincoln Riley is seamless, and two-time Heisman Trophy finalist Baker Mayfield puts together a season that’s good enough to win the award this time. The Sooners’ defense is better, too, and they show that in a victory at Ohio State on Sept. 9. The Sooners also beat the Longhorns in the first showdown against Tom Herman, building toward showdowns with Oklahoma State in the regular season and the Big 12 championship. The Sooners slip up once in Big 12 play, but they finish 12-1 — enough to get back to the College Football Playoff.

Worst case: Ohio State beats up on the Sooners again on Sept. 9 in Riley’s first big-game test as head coach. Texas does the same on Oct. 14, and the hangover the following week leads to a loss against Kansas State. Oklahoma State does the rest, and Oklahoma sits out of the Big 12 championship game with a disappointing 8-4 record.

6Penn State

Best case: The Nittany Lions are that good under James Franklin, especially on offense with dueling Heisman Trophy finalists Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley. Mike Gesicki and Juwan Johnson are unstoppable in the passing game, and safety Marcus Allen leads an improved defense. Penn State rectifies last year’s losses in home wins against Pitt and Michigan, setting up a Big Ten East mega-matchup in Columbus on Oct. 28. The Nittany Lions win on a last-second field goal and use that momentum to win back-to-back Big Ten championships with a 13-0 record. This time, that's good enough to make the playoff.

Worst case: Penn State implodes early with another upset loss to Pitt in a stunned Beaver Stadium on Sept. 9. The wheels gradually fall off from there. The Nittany Lions split road games at Iowa and Northwestern before their bye week. Michigan and Ohio State take turns beating the Nittany Lions in heavy-hitter matchups. Michigan State or Nebraska drives the final nail in a disappointing 7-5 coffin that leaves many in Happy Valley wondering, "What happened?"

5Clemson

Best case: Kelly Bryant isn't Deshaun Watson, but he doesn’t have to be thanks to Clemson’s defensive line dominance early in the season with Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell and Dexter Lawrence. The Tigers win ugly early and feed off an even more energized Dabo Swinney. That includes a home victory against Auburn and a close shave at Louisville. Bryant grows into the starting role, and that’s enough to keep the Tigers undefeated heading into November against N.C. State, Florida State and South Carolina. Clemson emerges with an 11-1 record and returns to Charlotte for a chance at a three-peat in the ACC.

Worst case: Auburn spoils Clemson's hopes before they gets started in Week 2, and Clemson falls to 1-2 after Lamar Jackson reminds everybody why he won the Heisman Trophy. What unfolds is a similar story to Florida State last year: Clemson rights the ship, but is eliminated from the ACC hunt with a loss to the Seminoles on Nov. 11. The kicker is a fourth loss at South Carolina on a last-minute touchdown pass by Jake Bentley.

4Florida State

Best case: The Seminoles take advantage of the opening stage and knock off No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta. Deondre Francois uses that confidence to become a Heisman candidate, while freshman running back Cam Akers proves as good as advertised. A loaded defense evolves around several All-American candidates, including Derwin James and Tarvarus McFadden. The path from there is easy: Re-claim the ACC Atlantic Division, then the ACC title, en route to getting back to the College Football Playoff.

Worst case: Alabama, as it tends to do, throttles Florida State in Atlanta. The recovery is rough. The offensive line struggles, and that leads to a loss to rival Miami two weeks later. The Seminoles dig out of the hole but also lose to Clemson and Florida, giving Jimbo Fisher his lowest win total since 2011 heading into a second-tier bowl.

3Ohio State

Best case: Urban Meyer watches as his offense enjoys a five-star debut in the Thursday night opener against Indiana. Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson breathes life into the passing game, and J.T. Barrett reverts to the 2014 form that made him almost unstoppable. Running back Mike Weber continues off his success from last season while running back Demario McCall and receiver Johnnie Dixon have breakout seasons and the defensive line helps the back seven break in. Ohio State piles up top-10 wins against Oklahoma, Penn State and Michigan and returns to Indianapolis for the first time since 2014.

Worst case: Indiana throws an uncomfortable scare at Ohio State on opening night, and Baker Mayfield puts the Sooners on his back in leading Oklahoma to a revenge win at Ohio Stadium. Penn State wins its second straight against the Buckeyes, who are then eliminated from College Football Playoff contention by Michigan at the Big House. Ohio State misses out on the New Year’s Day Six with a 9-3 record.

2USC

Best case: Sam Darnold wins the Heisman Trophy. That, at minimum, means USC lived up to the hype and weathered a tough September. Darnold builds around the supporting cast led by running back Ronald Jones II, and the defense gets better under Clay Helton. The Trojans get an emphatic statement win at Notre Dame on Oct. 21, and that barrels downhill into a Pac-12 championship showdown against Washington — with a playoff berth on the line.

Worst case: Depth on the offensive line catches up with the Trojans, and the hype unravels in September. The Trojans lose two games out of a tough slate among Texas, Stanford and Washington State. It’s an uphill battle the rest of the season as the pressure gets to Helton: Notre Dame eliminates USC from the playoff picture and UCLA deals a fourth loss to the Trojans on Nov. 18.

1Alabama

Best case: Alabama re-claims the national title, its fifth under Nick Saban — it always starts there for the Tide. The offense morphs into something close to unstoppable under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and it’s pick-your-Heisman-candidate among Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarbrough and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The defense improves under second-year coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, and the Tide leave no doubt by dominating Florida State in the opener. The Tide pass the usual SEC tests — with the kicker a blowout victory at Auburn. That leads to a fourth straight SEC championship and berth in the playoff. The Tide draw Ohio State and Urban Meyer in the Sugar Bowl. This time, Alabama wins big and heads to the championship game.

Worst case: Florida State beats Alabama in the opener, giving the Crimson Tide back-to-back losses against ACC powerhouses. Saban rights the ship as usual, and the Tide don’t lose again until Tennessee upsets them on a last-second field goal on Oct. 21. Auburn then wins the SEC West at Alabama’s expense, giving Saban his first three-loss season since 2010. It turns into a four-loss when Jim Harbaugh and Michigan beat the Tide in the Citrus Bowl.