Circuit City

Twenty years ago the brilliant Chicago-based Steppenwolf Theater Company debuted Garry Marshall and Lowell Ganz’ play Wrong Turn at Lung Fish. This farcical piece is an inquiry into the often harmful peculiarities of human behavior. In a pivotal scene, one of the characters wonders whether mankind may have made a profound wrong turn along the Darwinian path of evolution. The “wrong turn at lungfish” sets humanity on a path of despair, and ultimately begs the question whether our fate is inevitable, or could pain be averted with different decisions at critical junctures?

With the benefit of hindsight, it would appear that many businesses have made profoundly wrong turns in the evolution of their business models. Sears failing to enter (or acquire into) the big box home improvement category. Blockbuster neglecting to launch a serious alternative to RedBox and NetFlix. Circuit City’s decision to exit appliances and abandon its high service sales model. Any number of smaller retail formats laid to waste in Walmart’s wake.

These are retail examples, but virtually every industry has multiple stories of brands that were on top, but that failed to evolve to the changing customer and competitive environment. Before long they found themselves dropping from leadership positions to also-rans or, in some cases, filing for bankruptcy and possibly disappearing altogether. And indeed for some their fates may have been inevitable.

Yet, in the Sears, Blockbuster and Circuit City examples, it’s clear that those companies had the opportunity to know-and the resources to act–to change their course. Through a lack of customer insight, faulty economic analysis and a fundamental misperception of risk, they somehow failed to see what was obvious to many others.

For these brands the worst case scenario has come true, or the day of reckoning is drawing ‘nigh. Their fates are sealed.

Chances are, however, that you still have time to act, to develop deep customer insight, to understand your vulnerabilities to competitive innovation, to realize that you should be the one to cannibalize your cash cow. It is easy? No. Is it more than a little scary sometimes? Of course.

But I always think about the guy on the way to the bankruptcy hearing and what they wish they had done differently when they had the chance. I bet what they are about to go through seems a lot harder and a lot scarier than what they could have gone through. Don’t be that guy.