Mike, mid-Gulf is more like 83 degrees and the Yucatan Basin is at 85. However, 81 or 85, that’s plenty warm for intensification and, in this case, rapid intensification. A lot will depend on how much land interaction takes place and if the future Nate is weakened or not. All we can do now is watch it and prepare. As Levi said, this one is a guaranteed US landfall. If you live along the Gulf coast, just assume it’s coming for you.

So nice to have a individual online speak the truth about the weather. No fear mongering, just forecasting. Most people online, including some of the larger outposts, tend to make these systems have a broader impact than in reality. They make way to many assumptions, which only seems to confuse people. Especially with IRMA and it’s potential outcome. Our local weather Mets, were even telling folks around here, which is D.C. area, to brace for IRMA. We didnt even have a drop of rain here. Which is fine, but if they didnt jump the gun, and say the apocalypse was coming, then it wouldnt of been so bad. The forecast can change rapidly, especially with a tropical system in its infancy. Thanks for keeping the window open for all possibilities and Not pointing to a major city that’s in the cone.

Long time follower. It looks like its following the GFS route and having more land interaction. How likely is it in your opinion that it will remain a Tropical Storm and go over the RIviera Maya (Playa del Carmen, Mexico) Is there any chance that land interaction will dissipate it? Since it is following the more Westerly track should we assume that it will follow the GFS path fairly closely?

Much appreciate the articulate, thorough explanation of what Nate is doing. In particular, you make no claims to know where exactly Nate would hit at this time, other than somewhere in a Gulf state. Looking forward to Thursday Night’s presentation.

You can certainly see a low level spin south of Key West on the radar loop late morning and early afternoon….looks like the GFS is right with that…. BUT there’s also been a HUGE flair-up of convection off the Treasure Coast and northward at the same time similar to what the Euro was showing….. So they both are somewhat correct!

[…] In the above figure, the NOAA’s GFS model run takes the storm track over Louisiana (left) while the European showed landfall occurring some 400 miles away to the east at the start of the Florida panhandle (right). If that doesn’t illustrate the huge uncertainty within models, then what does? Source: Image cropped from Tropical Tidbits. […]