Analysis: Ron Paul bows to political and economic reality

Bowing to political and economic reality, Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul announced Monday that he will no longer actively campaign in the remaining primary states, including Texas.

In an email to supporters, the 76-year-old Texas congressman said that to have “any hope of success” against presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney in the remaining megastates of Texas, California and New Jersey would require “many tens of millions of dollars we simply do not have.”

But the libertarian congressman from suburban Houston said he would continue to battle for delegates in states holding upcoming statewide conventions and hoped to shape the GOP policy debate at the Republican National Convention and beyond.

“This campaign fought hard and won electoral success that the talking heads and pundits never thought possible,” Paul told his backers. “But, this campaign is also about more than just the 2012 election. It has been part of a quest I began 40 years ago and that so many have joined.”

Paul’s announcement means he will not contest late-primary states such as his home state of Texas on May 29 and California and New Jersey a week later. But the candidate is pushing to maximize his delegate count in states where the delegate-selection process is underway — and supporters announced plans for another fundraising “money bomb” designed to finance their ongoing efforts.

“Our campaign will continue to work in the state convention process,” Paul said. “We will continue to take leadership positions, win delegates, and carry a strong message to the Republican National Convention that liberty is the way of the future.”

Despite his enthusiastic cadre of loyalists, Paul has accumulated only about 100 delegates from among the more than 2,200 who will descend on Tampa in August. And polls showed him trailing far behind Romney in Texas and California, the largest delegate prizes of the year. However, Paul’s supporters said Monday they would remain steadfastly with their candidate.

“Our goal is not necessarily to win a nomination for Ron Paul,” said Florence Sebern, an unpledged Colorado delegate who intends to vote for Paul at the national convention. “Our goal is to change the face of the Republican Party — and we’re doing it. We’re rattling a few cages along the way, but we’ve doing it in a big way.”

Paul’s cage-rattling has rattled some Republican strategists, who say his decision to scale back his efforts could improve Romney’s chances against President Obama this November — or at least avoid further damage to the former Massachusetts governor.

“Ron Paul has finally come to his senses and given up this Kamikaze mission,” said Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak. “Every minute he continued in this race, on the margins, he was imperiling the 50/50 chance of defeating Obama in the fall.”

Political analysts said Paul, a third-time presidential contender, was never taken seriously by the media elite and GOP establishment, who viewed candidates like Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum as more viable conservative alternatives to Romney.

“He has a loyal group of supporters, but this time he could not build on that because he was competing with other candidates who were perceived as having a better chance to finish ahead of Romney,” said Cindy Rugeley, a Texas Tech University political scientist. “It has been clear for a very long time that his chances of winning the nomination were slim to none.”

Rugeley said Paul’s Monday announcement was simply an acknowledgement that “he doesn’t have the money to carry on.”

Steven E. Schier, a Carleton College political science professor, said Paul’s pivot was a last-ditch effort to maintain good relations with Romney and preserve a role for the Texas congressman at the August GOP national convention in Tampa.

“Paul hopes to have it both ways with his decision to suspend primary campaigning,” said Schier. “On the one hand, he avoids bigger campaign debts and limits his public challenge to Mitt Romney. On the other hand, he keeps his libertarian movement going in order to influence the national platform and convention.”

Despite Paul’s inability to win a single state’s primary election, he built a national organization fueled by strong support from young voters. If Romney hopes to defeat Obama, he will need to capture the hearts and votes of the vast majority of Paul loyalists.

“Ron Paul has brought new people into the party during this primary process,” said Wayne Lesperance, a political science professor at New England College. “That has been something the other candidates have been much less successful in achieving.”

Paul’s campaign was different than any of the seven Republicans who, at one time or another, have been considered 2012 frontrunners. While his rivals were trying to win the White House, Paul was trying to build a movement — a libertarian, anti-interventionist movement that could transcend a single election cycle.

“The campaign for liberty … has taken a tremendous leap forward in this election and will continue to grow stronger in the future until we finally win,” Paul declared Monday.