The United Kingdom-based Tropical Storm Risk forecast 12.5 named storms, 5.6 hurricanes and 2.6 major hurricanes. Averaging the three reports, you come up with 11.5 named storms, 4.9 hurricanes and 2.2 major hurricanes. That’s roughly an average to slightly below average year.

The U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues its forecast at the end of May.

AccuWeather, a commercial forecasting service, predicted that more storms will form this year close to the U.S. Coast, both in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. This would be due to fronts pushing through the U.S. and stalling out in tropical and sub-tropical waters, allowing pieces to of energy to spin off and brew into tropical storms.

“Another big storm is possible for the East Coast with heavy, flooding rain,” said Paul Pastelok, a long-range forecaster with AccuWeather.

It’s likely a reference to Hurricane Irene, which narrowly missed Southeast Florida last August but devastated the Bahamas and went on to pound the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, causing $18.7 billion in damage.

This August will also be the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 mega-storm that leveled parts of Miami in 1992. That year, only seven named storms formed, a much-below average season.

“I always tell people that this season will probably be average or slightly below average, but so was 1992, and that’s when Andrew hit,” Channel 5 Chief Meteorologist Steve Weagle said in an interview this week for the upcoming Palm Beach Daily News Hurricane Guide.

“And that storm didn’t arrive until late August, which is crazy when you think about it. It was almost half-way through the season when it hit, and no one will say 1992 was a slow year.”

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The best chance for rain in South Florida is Sunday, the National Weather Service in Miami says. Forecasters upped chances of showers and thunderstorms to 30 percent as a trough of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula allows a surge of moisture to lift north from the Florida Straits.

Up to 3 inches may fall in the Northwestern islands, he said Thursday. The NWS Hydrometerological Prediction Center forecasts about 2 inches of rain in extreme Southeast Florida, with lesser amounts to the north, through Tuesday.

Clouds should begin to move into the Palm Beach area on Saturday. Until then, expect mostly sunny skies with a high near 80 and a low near 70.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.