It was already trending that way but this migration from PR might just be the impetus to push it over.

Wouldn't that just be some nice irony? The Trump admin all but ignores an integral part of the US after a major natural disaster, and as a result, the most important swing state in the nation turns Blue for good.

__________________
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.”
Harlan Ellison

Wouldn't that just be some nice irony? The Trump admin all but ignores an integral part of the US after a major natural disaster, and as a result, the most important swing state in the nation turns Blue for good.

I don't think you can have such a relentless wave of retired folks every year and stay blue for good.

It was already trending that way but this migration from PR might just be the impetus to push it over.

Puerto Ricans are basically as solid Dem as African Americans. They vote like 95% Dem. So Trump is probably digging his own grave.

And the tax "reform" is probably even more catastrophic for the Republicans. They've lost affluent, educated suburbia, permanently. There are still tons of moderate Republican voters in suburban America, and their Republican reps are now in deep trouble.

So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems. They just better not screw it up, like they always do.

They just need to make sure that they vote. All fine and dandy that Florida is heading towards blue status, but if they don't go out in mass and vote, doesn't mean anything.

When people vote in mass, Dems win. When people that should be voting stay home, the GOP wins.

But anyways, in NJ, the good part is that much of this growth is in the urban areas and urban-like suburbs. The Hispanic population is expected to grow 1/3 in the next 20 years. NJ is still a good area for immigrants. Lots of potential.

That would be interesting. It would change politics not only nationally but also locally, bringing about more pro-urban policies to sustain growth. Hopefully Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee follow as the Southeast continues to look like the rest of the East Coast.

__________________There is only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving, and that's your own self.
-Aldous Huxley

I don't like the idea of Alabama losing a House seat, but if (and it likely will) occurs, it could lead to a major shakeup as far as the state's political representations goes. Republicans will, of course, try and carve up the state to maintain the status quo, but it will be hard for them to maintain the mandatory minority district without welcoming more diverse populations into what are currently heavy red districts.

Puerto Ricans are basically as solid Dem as African Americans. They vote like 95% Dem. So Trump is probably digging his own grave.

And the tax "reform" is probably even more catastrophic for the Republicans. They've lost affluent, educated suburbia, permanently. There are still tons of moderate Republican voters in suburban America, and their Republican reps are now in deep trouble.

So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems. They just better not screw it up, like they always do.

Yeah, that's the issue. If they keep fighting culture wars, they're going to alienate some of the socially conservative Catholics of PR.

That's from the huge (for our population) domestic outflow. The oil downturn has throttled the state's economy, and not many people are willing to put up with the cold and darkness of winter if they aren't making oil work salaries.

So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems. They just better not screw it up, like they always do.

Thing is, since we're talking long-term, there's no telling what the two parties' positions will be by then.

"Long-term demographics are extremely unfavorable to any party that would be openly anti-minority and/or anti-nonwhite to the point of managing to make it a single issue for many voters" is the version of your statement we can probably all agree on.

Yeah, that's the issue. If they keep fighting culture wars, they're going to alienate some of the socially conservative Catholics of PR.

Many immigrants are socially conservative, fiscally conservative, and (when personally successful) would prefer a small government. Many of them are a natural fit as GOP-of-one-generation-into-the-future voters, I'd guess. (I don't have a crystal ball, obviously, but I have observed that parties nearly always adapt; and if they don't, they're replaced, which can happen surprisingly quickly in terms of election cycles.)

They just need to make sure that they vote. All fine and dandy that Florida is heading towards blue status, but if they don't go out in mass and vote, doesn't mean anything.

When people vote in mass, Dems win. When people that should be voting stay home, the GOP wins.

But anyways, in NJ, the good part is that much of this growth is in the urban areas and urban-like suburbs. The Hispanic population is expected to grow 1/3 in the next 20 years. NJ is still a good area for immigrants. Lots of potential.

Same problem in Texas. We should be blue. But voter turnout among minorities and young people is usually low. When you visit cities here and go to restaurants, stores, parks, and ethnic festivals, it's easy to wonder how the hell could this state still be red? But if they don't vote...

It's still a very modest growth, but Michigan finally turned the corner on out-migration with this period. It's been the one thing stiffling growth the previous five years the state grew. You take that factor away, and you have more "normal" growth for the state coming leading up to the 2020 Census, finally. We've kind of been expecting this having seen Detroit's population loss slow down significantly in recent years. I'll be very interested to see what the sub-county numbers look like in the coming months, but it's very likely to show loss in Wayne County slow to a trickle.

Michigan's population is up again, for the sixth consecutive year, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday. About 9,962,311 residents lived in the state on July 1, 2017, an increase of 28,866 people or 0.3% from a year earlier.

The state's growth rate remains slower than the national rate of 0.7%.

The population gain includes births and people migrating to the state. Michigan recorded a positive net migration – more people moving to the state than leaving -- for the first time in records dating to at least 2000, according to the Census Bureau. Statistics were not available prior to then.