The odds of pitching prospects tell us that White and Pomeranz won’t both turn out to be top-notch pitchers. It’s possible neither will. But more than likely, one will emerge as a bona fide ace, and will probably still be a bona fide ace long after Jimenez has left the Indians to be somebody’s inning-eating No. 3 starter.

So not only is it MORE THAN likely that we traded away a bonafide ace, but one that will far outlast the one we just got in Jiminez.

The article tries to paint a levelheaded view at prospects, but this paragraph badly betrays him as believing whole heartedly in going down the very same line of thinking that helped management pass on Pedro years ago.

I don't know whether or not Jiminez has legit issues that will doom his career, but it just seems insane to state that any prospect is more than likely to become the most coveted of assets in MLB- the FOR bonafide Ace. And to top it off with predicting longevity as the cherry on that Sunday..again we are talking about a pitcher here....well that's bordering on elite level optimism......or I guess pessimism, in this case.

I agree JCoz. Jonathan's stuff is always so much to read and this is no different but I disagree with the bottom line.

Jimenez is a front of the rotation guy. We don't know what White amd Pomz ultimately are. And to hint that the Tribe got damaged goods or that UJ's shitty outing last Saturday speaks to some sort of Fausto-like schizophrenia to me isn't fair. Dude was affected by the rumors, the uncertainty, etc. and any of us would have been out there physically with our head somewhere else.

Jimenez also had a hip flexor and groin tweak in the early part of the year that affected him. That's going to affect his velocity/success, maybe still is. But it's not damaged goods IMO.

By all accounts UJ is bright and works hard. I think he'll be fine here at the top of the rotation once he settles in. Masterson and Jimenez for at least the next two seasons? I like it.

Scrambler, the bad or good is not reflected in 2014. Hindsight 20/20. The judgment whether this trade is good or bad should be based on the potential of what we got for the potential of what we gave up and the end-game behind doing it. If the idea is the Tribe is in win-now mode (this season and the next 2-3), I simply don't understand how people can argue with it. Look up the facts on top pitching prospects, moreso, ANY pitching prospects and check out their success/failure rate. Its skewed in one direction and its not favorable to Drew and Alex. Jimenez is a bonafide TOR starter, that is a fact. Knight's assertion that Drew or Alex will be an ace is conjecture, pontificating, and borderline ridiculous. The numbers don't even come close to backing his claim.

As a follow up to my post, what I'm trying to say is you have to base the trade on present value. For example, if we trade Kearns and a bucket of chicken wings to St Louis for Albert Pujols and Pujols ends up hitting .100 for the rest of his career, is that a good or bad trade? Easy answer, I know. This trade is very much the same, albeit a bit extreme compared to Jimenez.

"All Beckett needs to do to cap off this mess is order some fried chicken and beer" – 5/10/12 before Beckett got chased in the 3rd at Fenway.

RickNashEquilibrium wrote:Knight's assertion that Drew or Alex will be an ace is conjecture, pontificating, and borderline ridiculous. The numbers don't even come close to backing his claim.

I'm not sure I understand basing any analysis on wins as Jonathan does. Again, he had a rational argument against the trade that he expressed previously.

I think the article of yesterday is an emotional reaction that argument not coming to his desired outcome.

I think that is supported by the lack of empirical evidence in Jonathan's assertions and his utilizing less than ideal bais for the arguments.

To wit, and regarding the 'Wins' as basis for his argument, a friend mentioned:

Josh Tomlin has 10 wins

Justin Masterson has fewer.

Is Josh Tomlin the better pitcher?

Again, IMO, it was an emotional response to not reaching his desired trade deadline outcome. I happen to disagree with Jonathan on the trade a s a whole. But even if I did agree I'm not sure I'd stand behind his arguments to defend my position. I'd go with the gutting of the system and the lack of top end prospects remaining to either supplement your ML team or deal for the key piece down the road.

Say what you will, Jonathan causes conversations to occur and his stuff is amongst the most popular content here. No one is more accomplished as a writer and I look forward to getting his contributions because he makes me think and because he does so in an entertaining manner.

Can't disagree with any of that Peek. Great writer; entertaining and thought provoking which is what this place is about. I understand the emotional angle, and I can't shake the fact his line about Drew and/or Alex being a bonafide ace is the normal "the worst always happens to Cleveland" IE the trade does a 180 on what Antonetti intended: Jimenez is a disaster and Drew wins a Cy Young his rookie season. TCE ya know?

"All Beckett needs to do to cap off this mess is order some fried chicken and beer" – 5/10/12 before Beckett got chased in the 3rd at Fenway.

RickNashEquilibrium wrote:Can't disagree with any of that Peek. Great writer; entertaining and thought provoking which is what this place is about. I understand the emotional angle, and I can't shake the fact his line about Drew and/or Alex being a bonafide ace is the normal "the worst always happens to Cleveland" IE the trade does a 180 on what Antonetti intended: Jimenez is a disaster and Drew wins a Cy Young his rookie season. TCE ya know?

scrambler wrote:No one on the planet has any clue whatsoever if this was a good or bad trade. We'll know the answer in 2014.

Peeker what do you think of such a time horizon? Comment?

<- to indicate fun.

All I know is every man on earth is an expert on three things:

BaseballSexDrinking Beer

I'm sure Scrambler is no different so he clearly knows best.

I would suggest he ONLY read game summary articles though or else his adherence to 'only time will tell' is going to render absolutely every other single article and thread meaningless to him.

I understand the trade that we made for Jimenez. I mean Pomeranz and White could both become 25 game winners. The chances of that are about .001 percent, but if it happens we can safely say it was a bad trade. If we win the world series or at least make the playoffs in 2011, 2012, or 2013 I think we can say it was an ok trade. Right now, no one on the planet has any idea under the sun. That's all. There's right now been zero games played by any player since the trade. None of us know. All we have are opinions which is good. I am simply hoping this was a good trade. I honestly can't judge it right now. I see 100 percent the reason it was made.

I think an overlooked key to the deal from the Indians perspective is the belief within the organization that it has "fixed" whatever player development problem it had from the late '90s until '08 and that "the future" doesn't rest solely on the shoulders of two high first-round picks (gained as a result of finishing low in the standings). If Pomeranz & White, however good they become, were all Indians fans would have had to look forward to come 2013 or 2014 from the system, then long-term, the trade hurts. If, however, by that time, from the likes of Lindor, Howard (assuming they sign), Wolters, et al come some satisfactory reinforcements (rather than tomorrow's Trevor Crowes and Micah Schillings to name just a couple), that changes things. As others have said in analyzing the trade ... we shall see.

Colorado Rockies pitcher Drew Pomeranz was arrested early Friday morning, accused of disturbing the peace in Oxford, Miss.Oxford police arrested Pomeranz at 1:25 a.m.; he was released on a cash bond at 4:40 a.m. Pomeranz was listed in jail documents by his first name Thomas.

Colorado Rockies pitcher Drew Pomeranz was arrested early Friday morning, accused of disturbing the peace in Oxford, Miss.Oxford police arrested Pomeranz at 1:25 a.m.; he was released on a cash bond at 4:40 a.m. Pomeranz was listed in jail documents by his first name Thomas.

swerb wrote:Character issues maybe played a part in the decision to trade Pomeranz?

Probably.

Also, from Rotoworld:

The incident occurred after Pomeranz left a bar with friends. It's worth noting that the young left-hander was also arrested in 2008 and charged with refusal to take a breath-alcohol test, giving false information to a police officer and possessing a fake ID.

Have to imagine they had their concerns.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

swerb wrote:Character issues maybe played a part in the decision to trade Pomeranz?

Probably.

Also, from Rotoworld:

The incident occurred after Pomeranz left a bar with friends. It's worth noting that the young left-hander was also arrested in 2008 and charged with refusal to take a breath-alcohol test, giving false information to a police officer and possessing a fake ID.

Have to imagine they had their concerns.

C'mon, dude is 22 years old. He's gotten shitfaced at the bar a few times and acted like an asshole. Every single poster in this forum has done shit twice as bad as any of that. Most probably haven't gotten caught or been put in a position to be an asshole and lie to cops.

Well, expect for maybe Peeker who's as pure as the driven snow.

And, refusing to take a breathalizer when you're hammered is probably the correct decision.

motherscratcher wrote:C'mon, dude is 22 years old. He's gotten shitfaced at the bar a few times and acted like an asshole. Every single poster in this forum has done shit twice as bad as any of that. Most probably haven't gotten caught or been put in a position to be an asshole and lie to cops.

I don't see Rich or I judging him. Just speculating.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

motherscratcher wrote:C'mon, dude is 22 years old. He's gotten shitfaced at the bar a few times and acted like an asshole. Every single poster in this forum has done shit twice as bad as any of that. Most probably haven't gotten caught or been put in a position to be an asshole and lie to cops.

Jimenez would spend hours watching video of his most successful years and comparing it to video of how he currently pitched. The differences were striking. Who was this guy? The new Ubaldo stopped using his left shoulder to balance himself, which in turn sapped him of all the torque that he used to create to throw the ball at high speeds. The new Ubaldo could hardly muster a ball over 90 mph. His delivery had become slow, deliberate and calculated. It was if he had been trying to deconstruct every movement.

Most disheartening for him was how easily his life had become unraveled. In the spring of 2011, as a member of the Rockies, Jimenez developed an infection on the thumb of his throwing hand. Jimenez grips a ball differently than most everyone. Regardless of what pitch he throws, Jimenez will always put his thumb on the ball's seam to help guide the ball. At times this creates a blister. Sometimes that blister pops. In 2011, the blister became infected.

Jimenez began compensating for his blister by unknowingly changing his mechanics. And that's all it took. His pitches lost speed. He could no longer control the strike zone. Batters feasted. A high-profile trade to the Indians midseason in 2011 only added more pressure.

Jimenez's career was in a tailspin, and it had all been because of a blister. Two of the most prized seasons in the prime years of his career lost because of a tiny injury. It was maddening, really.

Cleveland's hiring of Terry Francona as manager became a blessing. New pitching coach Mickey Callaway made a it a priority to fix Jimenez. Shortly after being hired, Francona and Callaway took a trip to the Dominican and met with Jimenez.

"It was just to get to know him in the offseason and to really establish a relationship and to get to know the person," Callaway said. "When I watch his film, he does a lot of great things. We're not trying to change him."

In his two years of struggles, Jimenez had tried every drill imaginable. He had watched hours and hours of video. He had used a towel in place of a ball to replicate his old delivery. He would do drills in front of a mirror.

"Everything you can think of, I've done it," Jimenez said.

But Callaway knew that Jimenez's problems were more mental than physical. He would have to reshape his pitcher's way of thinking. He had to make Jimenez believe that he was as good as he once was. He had to make sure that every time Jimenez stepped on the mound, he believed he was capable of getting the man out who stood in the batter's box.

Jimenez's aura of invincibility had been shattered. He needed to regain it.

The goal would be to make Jimenez stop thinking too much when he was on the mound. It sounded like a cliché, but it was true.

Callaway asked Jimenez to remember everything about that 2010 season: the meals he ate, the routines he had, the games when he dominated. Jimenez recalled that during that year he would throw two bullpen sessions in between starts. During the bullpen immediately following his start, Jimenez would throw for a long time. During the bullpen just prior to his start, Jimenez would only throw for a short time. It was a balance that kept his arm and his mechanics in good shape.

Jimenez has started throwing two bullpens again this spring.

Callaway also advised Jimenez to speed up his delivery. Quicker movements meant less time to think. Jimenez would end up trying to throw like his idol Pedro Martinez, after all.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

But, yes, we certainly could have acquired Doug Fister instead (not for both Pomeranz and White, but White + _____). Or some other pitcher that following offseason.

I do remember reading in an article recently that teams were asking the Indians to trade Ubaldo to them right after the deal was announced. If only we could go back in time.

Part of me cringes to see this thread resurrected. According to my profile, it contains my largest number of responses, the vast majority of which contain my barely-articulated rage at the deal.

One of my biggest beefs with the trade has always been in the lost potential of White and Pomeranz. While I don't think that anyone expected them to be this ineffective (I certainly did not), their value on 8/30/11 was greater than that of a bad mechanics head case with an affordable, team friendly contract that the Rockies were still eager to unload (gee, I wonder why?). The biggest loss was in the mis-allocation of resources...two former (and recent) first round picks gone in the blink of an eye on what was essentially a faith-based reclamation project. I have no problem using top prospects as trade chips, but for a small market team with limited resources and abilities to compete and improve, it has to be for the right player. Jimenez just never was that guy, in my opinion, and we were never able to use those chips in a more productive fashion. (Or hell, who even knows...maybe at least Pomeranz could have worked out for us. Colorado is probably not the ideal place for the knuckle curve to be effective.)

Hopefully, the new coaching staff and the newfound drive to win will "fix" Ubaldo into at least being a MOR-type guy who eats up innings. In that role, he could at least give us something of value. I still hate the trade, but I would have loved nothing more than to be wrong, and I'd still love for him to prove me wrong this year (better late than never).

In hindsight, Ubaldo should've been sent down to single A and rebuilt like Roy Halladay, away from the pressures of the big leagues.

It would've been a PR disaster, though. And the Indians thought they were competing at the time.

I was so gung-ho about this deal, largely because I liked the aggressiveness Antonetti was showing after nine years of no action from Shapiro. I agree they wasted a lot of capital on Ubaldo, but I still like that Antonetti tried something at the deadline that year.