The Warriors add Turiaf, mull Williams: They might not be better, but they’ll certainly be deeper

Mullin doesn’t want Monta Ellis to go through the same marathon/collapse this season that Don Nelson put Ellis, Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson through last season.

It might not and probably won’t lead to a better team this season than last season with Baron hauling the Warriors through thick and thin and Monta adding in here or there, but it looks like the 2008-2009 team will be more balanced and less prone to the highs and lows of riding with one particular up-and-down ball-dominator.

That’s a big price for a back-up player, especially if Don Nelson keeps to his tradition of rarely playing back-up big men–and sometimes rarely playing his starting big men, too.

But adding Turiaf should give the Warriors a pivot for a strong, possibly advantageous second-team unit (perhaps leaving Corey Maggette in), which means Nelson might feel less obligated to keep Ellis and SJax in for entire quarters or halves just to keep things close.

-According to ESteinPN, the GSWs are seriously contemplating a run at 76ers restricted free-agent guard Louis Williams.

That could be expensive for a non-distributing small guard, since the 76ers can match. That means the Warriors either have to go big with the offer to force a non-match (and the Warriors probably don’t have quite enough space under the cap to do that) or work a sign-and-trade with Philly and either way, Williams would be expensive.

That also could take the Warriors right out of the Kelenna Azubuike market–he signed a three-year, $9.3M offer sheet ($2.9M/$3.1M/$3.3M player option) with the Clippers late last week and the Warriors have until this Saturday (or so) to match or let him go.

Not only would a Williams play eat into whatever money the Warriors might’ve alotted for Azubuike–another back-up–but perhaps more immediately, the timing would be crucial. The Warriors probably have to decide on Williams this week; if he’s a goal, then they’d have to let Azubuike go, I’d think.

But if they get Williams–by the way, that’s NOT even a 50/50 proposition, I’d think, at this point–there’s another strong leader for a second unit, basically a Monta Duplicate, which would definitely help Nelson pare down Ellis’ minutes closer to 32 or 34 per instead of near 40.

So that’s the subtext here, I think, to these and the previous moves…

-Letting Davis go (with some continued protestations by Davis’ agent that the Warriors never made a serious play);

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-Tossing a big chunk at Maggette;

-Paying for a back-up center (Turiaf and Maggette combine for almost $13M this season and almost $70M overall, both figures more than Davis’ deal with the Clips);

-And considering another small guard at a pretty high price…

Here’s my view of what Mullin’s doing: Pending further movement–and I don’t think anything huge is happening for now–and assuming the re-signing of Ellis and Andris Biedrins, the Warriors have gone from a scrambling, exhausted 7-man team totally dependent on BD to the makings of a potentially complete 8-, 9- or maybe even 10-man rotation that can turn to Ellis, Maggette or a total team effort to try to win games.

Of course, that’s assuming Nelson wants to play these additional guys and I think that’ll be something to watch very closely once November and December arrive.

I know everybody reading this remembers that by the final weeks of last season, Nelson was basically going with a 6 1/2- to 7 1/2-man rotation while burning the gears of Davis (38.9 minutes per game last season but higher at the end), Ellis (37.9) and Jackson (39.1).

-Also can use: Kosta Perovic, if he returns.
-Also can use: C.J. Watson, if he returns.
-Also can use: DeMarcus Nelson, if he comes to camp and wins a job.
-Also can use: Richard Hendrix, the 2nd-round pick.
-Also can use: Other unsigned players.

Note: I don’t think Mullin or Nelson imagine that the second unit would necessarily play all together a majority of the time. I’d guess Maggette hangs in the game as the other starters check out–like Ginobili does when Duncan’s out–and plays with Turiaf/Wright/Belinelli.

Then Ellis can come back in subbing for Maggette and go for a five-minute small-ball run with C.J. Watson/other point guard/Louis W, which is what New Orleans did last year so successfully with Chris Paul and Jannero Pargo.

See how that works? Lots of options: They can stay with Maggette if he’s hot, switch him out for Belinelli and let him roll if Belinelli gets going, let Monta go crazy if that’s working, work the team concept with Wright, Turiaf, Randolph, SJax or Whoever Else.

Again, this is not a roster that projects to win more than a team with a healthy, motivated Baron Davis. For instance, this is not a roster that would’ve knocked off Dallas in the first round of the 2007 playoffs.

But that 2007 team was financially toppling over, so Mullin switched Jason Richardson for Wright plus the option to spend $9.9M in a trade exception (which the Warriors let elapse this summer) and shh, the shot at Kevin Garnett.

The 2007-2008 team was, in retrospect, the unbalanced end of the Baron Era, especially when Pietrus got rattled and Barnes fell off the face of the earth and Croshere and Troy Hudson never healed up and Harrington never got consistent and Chris Webber… was Chris Webber.

So Nellie overloaded Baron, Monta and SJax to go for as much as he could get out of them… and the team won 48 games and fell flat at the end.

I think Mullin made the decision then: He’ll never get so top-heavy again and he won’t dare go into a season counting on humongous production and playing-time responsibility out of Barnes, Harrington, Pietrus and the Rest of the Collection. Mullin wanted to get more versatile.

This season, again, pending further moves, Mulin:

-Hopes to replace Baron’s offense with more of Monta with the ball and by signing Maggette;

-Possibly hopes to ease the play-making/distributing burden on Monta by adding another lead guard who can either start alongside Ellis or back him up solidly;

-Hopes to add energy and bulk by signing Turiaf (with the Baron money) and possibly seeing what Hendrix can give them;

-Hopes to get more versatility and consistency out of the wing spots by saying good-bye to Pietrus and (probably) Barnes and possibly Azubuike and adding Maggette and counting on Belinelli and possibly Randolph;

-Hopes that the new playmakers push Nelson to let Harrington do other things than just stand around at the three-point line;

-Hopes to egg Nelson into playing Wright more by teaming him with Turiaf; it’s tough for Nelson to play Biedrins and Wright together on a first or second unit, but Turiaf and Wright is a very workable combination–both can run, Turiaf can body up on defense and hit jumpers, Wright can slash, and they can both guard the rim.

-Hopes to ease some of the burden on and maybe eventually replace SJax with Randolph, who has shown the ability and desire to lead the break and make plays (and also turn the ball over a ton).

-He’s praying that the Warriors are better defensively just by the subtraction of Baron (his defense comes and go and mostly last season it was GONE) and the addition of Turiaf and the increased playing time for Wright…

Of course, Belinelli isn’t going to help anybody on defense. Ellis might be a lost cause on defense. Harrington is mediocre at best. Louis Williams is a no-go on defense.

I repeat: This will not be a better team than last season or the season before that (after the mega-Indiana trade).

But Baron was not worth $65M… and what Mullin has formulated now is a 9- or 10-man rotation, with youth and versatility, that has some money next season (Foyle’s $6.8M buy-out number comes off the cap) and some interesting ways to go.

I think Louis Williams is a more expensive CJ Watson, the guy can light it up and fill Monta’s spot for a breather. I’d take CJ and Buke’s combined contracts over Louis Williams. I hope the W’s aren’t just messing with the 76ers to get back at them for taking Elton away.

What about Bobby Brown, is he on our list of potential back up PG’s I’ve been hearing good things about him.

I think Biedrin’s will become expendable after a big contract, IF Wright step ups this year and we have Turiaf to back up at the 5. That means package Harrington and Biedrin’s bigger contracts for one big fish (expiring contract — S Marion?). Just dreaming…

Jay

Any chance the Williams story is a smokescreen to disguise interest in someone whether via trade or FA?

Seems like an awfully duplicative interest, especially if it costs them Buike.

garlicboy

E,
Well put. CJ and Buike>Lou Williams.

Tim,
I think people don’t realize how much of an asset and how well Randolph fits into this team. Randolph will play 20 or more minutes per game becasue he has the ability to do so. He gives us another, scorer, ballhandler, shotblocker, creator on the floor, who also has the height and tougness to guard PF’s. I’d be shocked if he’s not playing more than 20 plus minutes a game.

I would take Azubuike’s strength and toughness than L Williams’ scoring. We already have plenty of scorers. We need guards who are going to rebound inside like Azubuike. Besides, having Williams might only decrease Ellis’ development next season.
I agree with Jay this might be a smokescreen. They are probably in talks with Bobby Brown, the pg whos tearing through summer league teams right now.

mw

Keep Azubuike!!

Devil’s Advocate

In addition to the Williams rumor I saw another on Hoopsworld about Delonte West of the Cavs. There is a lot of rumors out there about GS going after G/PGs.

“The Cavs’ next order of business is to attempt to sign point guard Delonte West, another restricted free agent. West’s agent, Noah Croom, wisely waited to see what kind of contract Gibson received. Now, he’ll likely ask for more money than Gibson got because West is the Cavs’ starting point guard.

He’ll likely ask for Udrih-type money because he’s arguably as good as the Kings’ guard.

Unlike Gibson, West may generate some interest from other teams. Golden State apparently thinks West would look great running up and down the court with the Warriors.

That’s probably where the Monta Ellis rumors have come from. Ellis, the athletic scoring machine with the Warriors, is also restricted. The Cavs are enamored with Ellis’ talents. Sources say the Warriors aren’t about to let Ellis leave the team after Baron Davis bolted for the Los Angeles Clippers.

Ellis’ camp is asking for a reported $10 million a season.

The Cavs might not have the assets it would take to pry loose the 6-foot-3 Ellis from Golden State. “

I also thought there was smoking going on…

However, it never hurts to consider all available options.

Eric

Perhaps a reason we haven’t heard much about the Biedrins negotiations is that he is being considered for a sign and trade with…
How about Biedrins/Harrington to Atlanta for Smith/Childress ? Smith would cover up a lot of the weaknesses at the point guard spot and be able to initiate the running game. I also like Childress a lot.

andrew

Such in-depth analysis… Almost like hearing the entire report of my colonoscopy. There’s already been too much tampering with this team. Forget Williams, keep buke at 3/year. That’s a damn bargain.

Steven L.

Turiaf’s making 17 mill over four years, not 19 million. (from all sources I’ve read). You might want to recheck that.

I definitely think the Warriors will be deeper than last years team. All I want from this years team is to have Hope that they can be interesting, exciting, and hang around the eighth spot until the end of the season.

When the season ends, we have Foyle’s 6.8 mil coming off the books and Harrington could be trade bait as a 2009-10 expiring contract. If we can nab a really good point guard or top flight free agent, we will be light years better than we were last year.

Good things are on the Horizon!

goldkmb

Is there a way Warriors can trade for Lamar Odom? Say something along the lines of Stephen Jackson for Odom. I know Odom makes a lot more than Jackson but this actually works out for both sides. Lakers get a SF who can shoot 3s, play tough D, and bring a certain attitude to the team. The Warriors would get someone who can handle the ball which leaves Ellis free to roam.

kevin

I think I’d rather see the Warriors play exciting basketball, bu maybe not win as much. They could have a chance at one of the premier player in next years draft. I know the draft isn’t supposed to be deep, but im agine the dubs with a guy like Blake Griffin, Demar DeRozan (supposedly the next Kobe), James Harden or Brandon Jennings. With on of theose guys with the Warriors young cor of Monta, Randolph, Wright, Biedrins, and Bellinelli that would be an exciting team,

I’d be willing to sacrifice a season of winning for a finals contender in a few years. Lets face it. We have no chance of winning this year, even if we had Baron.

Roger L

What’s the story on Matt Barnes? Why isn’t he coming back? Haven’t seen where he’s been traded.

dr_john

TK-

You should get rid of egocentric slime like Jividen or force him to post an actual take, anything other than personality attacks and characterization would be fine.

—Zombie

E

Can we get this guy or what? Bobby Brown…
Brown’s In A Giving Mood

Hornets’ point man Bobby Brown is going out in style. The ball is in his hands on every play and he continues to make the right decisions. Too bad there wasn’t an all-tournament team because he deserves something for his outstanding play. He has nine points and seven assists at halftime.

If the Hornets thought they were going to have an easier time because Bayless was out of the lineup, they were mistaken. J.R. Pinnock started in Bayless’ place and had a Bayless-type performance. He went 11-for-19 from the field (4-for-5 on treys) and finished with 30 points and six rebounds as Portland rolled 78-63.

Brown had 13 points, 10 assists and four rebounds.

stanfordfan

Tim, when the Warriors lost Baron, they had a contract for another year, they hadn’t put 100% into signing him to a long-term contract, and he completely surprised them by leaving. Yet you put yourself into Mullin’s shoes and brilliantly analyzed the deal, with a great deal of understanding for Mullin. Kudos for a very professional approach, by the way.

But when Stanford lost Trent Johnson, they also had a contract for another year, they hadn’t put 100% into signing him to a long-term contract, and he also completely surprised them by leaving. This, then, became “Bowlsby’s blunder.” You ran over Bowlsby like a steamroller. Professional? No way. Just biased.

Maybe you need to re-think the Bowlsby thing and reach a different conclusion and then extend an apology to him.

Kosta said he is appreciative that the dubs support him in trying to get the Serbian team into the ’09 Eurobasket, which is a big deal. You know, young players can make more in Europe now, tax-free. Ask Carlos Delfino, Navarro, e.g. Fernandez and Koponen could make more over there, also.

But Kosta says he is wanting to play next year in the NBA. Good for us, I think. I like his game and am ready to see the coaches play him and develop his game.

So watch the Serbian team in the China Ball and Euro quals from 8/20-9/20 and see if KP has any good stats—-other centers on that team are Darko Milicic and Nenad Krystic.

CalBears7

Twinkie defense:

There was rumors that Kosta was going to head back to Europe or something like that. Nothing official yet but just rumors, that is the reason why he might not be back.

http://Yahoo! PeteyB

Thanks Tim,
I’m with you Scott L., this may not be a “better” team than the last two years, but I’m more optimistic with our “potential” now more than ever before. There’s so much more unknown upside (and downside) in the continued development of Andris, Monta, Randolph, BW, and Belinelli – that will keep my interest up in not wanting to miss many games next season. I’m even watching the crappy summer league stuff online!

I know it’s only summer league, but short of an injury, Anthony Randolph will play much more this season than Brandon Wright… regardless of position opportunities. It’s not like I’m going on a limb here. Nellie will like his matchups much better offensively.

Randolph has got ball skills that Brandon may never develop. Brandon looks as though he needs help (passers) to set up his game – seems more tentative than fearless – and may need more time to develop. Randolph has “it.” He’ll be the prize of this draft. There will be a lot of unhappy GMs in a year or two who passed on Randolph because of his high bust potential – just like Arenas and Monta.

Great job W’s scouting… If Hendrix is serviceable, this will have been a very nice draft!

If Nelson is willing to give Chris ‘Fatal Attraction” Weber a starting slot I do not understand what he could have against a guy like Ronny Turiaf. Although I am no big fan of Gonzaga or the Lakers I have yet to see Turiaf play a game where he was not hustling. Almost ‘Hondo’ like. In the vernacular of the Nelson era Celts. Here is to Chris Mullin in his efforts to create a smart, hustling team in his own image.

gary

Great analysis, TK. Also like what Andrew #9 had too say… almost too much! TK, you are getting verbose and maybe positing too many ideas in one blog.

Bottom line: it’ll be a real crap shoot this year. There are so many new faces in that 10 man rotation. It’s not just “add water and stir” to get a winning (or even contending) team.

I think Nellie ball is just great… why: Speed. What I don’t like is that the Ws’ playmaking and rebounding really sucks when speed isn’t an option. This drives me nuts. Pass and shoot from30’/ Pass and shoot from 30’… not very exciting is it? This is not playmaking.

Hope these new faces can help in these 2 areas (playmaking and rebounding). Maybe this is the intent of all the maneuvering… my very simple / less verbose analysis.

playoffbound

24

I agree with you and you make great points. From listening to Mullin and Nelson interview, it seems like they are trying to address this area of weakness by drafting length and size and by signing Turiaf. I think that we have a good team now and that we are going to the playoffs. We have a lot of talent and a lot of guys who can score. I think with Baron gone, fans are scared of the unknown. I think we are going to be as competetive as last year…

Son of Ahmed

Nice post Gary. You’re dead on regarding the Dub’s half court game. Rumors of the Dubs trying to acquire Williams, another shoot-first pg, are a little troubling. Where is the play-making going to come from? As currently constituted, this team has low assist numbers.

JOJO

the W’S need to get a veteran point gard, the knicks looking to unload Malbury, I thinnk that would be a nice fit . keep Azabuke .

SJ Expat

If the Warriors can hang around the pack during the season, they could make a big run towards the end. The reason why: they would be very fresh and they are young. Combine those two, hope for good chemistry, and you can get one of the runs that young, fast teams get. Plus, a couple old teams should fall off a bit next season, and we should be running circles around them by the end of the season.

Of course, this is assuming that Tim is being a journalist and not a homer, and that Mullin is playing chess and not checkers.

SJ Expat

I prefer Azu over Williams because of his size and versatility. That gives Nelson more options when we go up against teams with big and/or talented guards. Plus, they play different positions. Are we sure we want to let Azu walk and trust the backup 2-3 spots to Belli and Randolph? Neither one have shown anything outside of SL.

How difficult would it be to get Bobby Brown? If he is playing so well, won’t the Hornets keep him?

garlicboy

My friends went to the summer league, and they were able to talk to Mitch Richmond. When asked if Azubuike was staying or going Mitch state, ” Azubuike is going no where.” That’s music to my ears.

big sky

tim,
I finally have your attention. I’ve been saying Lou Williams all along, 4 mil right now sounds like a lot, but he is a big time playmaker, i don’t think fans know enough of him out here, but he is going to be a marquee player. love buke, we can match him and still go after williams…why not? williams is the diamond in the rough in this RFA class. here’s a novel idea, tell me why this can’t happen please…magette and harrington for marion and dorrell wright!

Scott

So if what Marcus Thompson II is correct the Warriors have $4m left in cap space. And if I understand the cap correctly then the Warriors need to sign a back up point guard with that money . . . then they can resign their RFAs (KA, AB, ME) and go above the cap, but probably below the tax penalty. So if they are going to match the Clippers offer they need to get that point guard this week . . . unless they get him through a trade. That is what I see happening. They match for KA and that means they are done in the FA market. If PG help is coming its coming through a trade.

syjen

This guy Marrow in the Warriors Summer League is looking pretty good. Many say he is one dimensional but most are coming around to see a scoring machine. We could sign him for a year at very affordable dollars.

Scott

In a more important matter . . . If the OKC franchise is going to be nicknamed Thunder . . . does that mean the W’s have to trade them their mascot? Can they get Durant back as compensation? I am concerned for Thunder’s future. How did the W’s get a mascot nicknamed Thunder in the first place?

Mike

Garlicboy has a scoop! I hope Mitch was being truthful.

deano

Garlicboy: Thanks for the great news at #31. If Mitch told your pals that the Warriors are keeping Buke, then the Warriors have already told Buke. This is what I wanted, for Mullin to tell Buke right away that we want him. Buke deserves to feel valued here. Mullin can let the full week go by before officially informing the Clippers that GSW will match their offer. Screw them for continuing to raid our players.

Tim: Great post. But like PeterB at #22, I think that Randolph will be playing more than Wright, and at both the 3 and 4 spots. Also, we cannot count on Belinelli at any position. He does not provide enough reliable offense or enough playmaking to offset his defensive deficiencies.

Clearly, Buke and/or Jack must be on the floor at all times or we will not have enough perimeter defense. Finally, as E, Garlicboy and others have said, Lou Williams should not be our target as a sub for Monta. It would be better to sign CJ and keep looking.

Squall

Tim,

Great read. Great insight. Great in-depth look at the Warriors. Keep up the great work, you’re working harder then anyone on the Warriors (and apparently the 49ers and Raiders). Thanks for keeping us up-to-date during the Dog Days.

Charlie

Azubuike’s tenure with the Warriors is pretty much done…especially for that much money might be too much for Warriors to match. Plus they don’t need a shooting guard off the bench, they need a point guard to backup and complement Ellis and I feel Louis Williams is the guy to replace it. So the W’s will prob let Buike join his boy Davis with the Clips and make a run at Williams, and then have enough money to resign Biedrins and Ellis. The team will be complete once they sign a PG. The rotation will look something like this providing a lot of options for Nellie. The Warriors will be faster with Monta at point and Maggette in the starting mix. Off the Bench, Wright and Turiaf will provide the energy and rebounding and Randolph and Bellinelli will look to add some scoring punch to the offense. And returner Watson or Williams, if signed will provide as a solid backup to Ellis! I like this team, might not be better talent wise, but from a team standpoint we have improved and our deeper and might equal to winning more games with some youth and hard-nosed defense spearheaded by Turiaf!

I called Mullin on his home phone that he gave me after I beat him in a round of air hockey. He told me that Mitch would not give out information like that to two random guys in the crowd at the SL who are only there because they heard the nickel slots were juced and ready to pay off. He also told me the Cav’s are ready to deal L James for an order of Nate Thurman’s ribs. Here’s to insider info!

Bebopmonkey

Garlicboy-

thanks for the inside in Buike. good to know we’ll have some defense (and high flying?) next year.

by the way, i know Anthony Randolph’s game is exciting, but remember- Summer League! remember last year, when Belli was going to be our star sharpshooter?

Randolph will be amazing, just not this year, he will provide a few minutes here and there, but he still looks pretty raw. sure he’s confident now, but let’s see what happens in an NBA game first.

Scott

thats funny G Gman! I was thinking the same thing. So what . . . I am the only one concerned about Thunder’s future?

garlicboy

Mike,
I hope the same thing, I hope Mitch was being truthful. We’ll see. The inital, “He’s not going anywhere comment,” was later toned down to a diplomatic “well we’re going to try everything we can to keep him here.” They said the first response was telling. Basically hinting that $3 million for 3 years is peanuts.

Genuine GMan,
Don’t hate, just because you couldn’t make to Vegas.

Ed

Sorry, Tim, I have to respectfully disagree with your idea that
the former Warriors with Baron Davis on it was a much better
team than what we have now.

Mark my word: with the addition of Corey logging in 22pts per game ( which offsets Baron’s 21 ppg) plus the newly acquired Turiaf (who has addressed our most deficiency in rebounding) and the versatility of NBA-ready A Randolph – not even counting the improved performances of Marco B and Brendan W, I believe this new Warriors are a better team than the past season.

Scott

Don’t forget . . . Ellis will take it up a notch without Davis around. Ellis has been doing everything he has with Davis still controlling the ball. Nobody can stop him if you make others stay honest on D. If he can dish to the open man when he gets double teamed . . . can you imagine all the points Wright and Biedrins can get that way . . . I am looking forward to it.

rufusporter

#33 – Scott GREAT point regarding Warriors ability to go beyond the cap to resign our restricted players. To paraphrase, if we can sign a Bobby Brown or Louis Williams and stay under the cap, we still have the ability to resign KA, ME, and AB. I’m actually in the Bobby Brown camp, since he can potentially provide something that we don’t currently have on our team; a pass first playmaker. Yes, it’s summer league, but if truly has legitimate PG skills and we can sign him, he’ll be surrounded by NBA players when the season begins who I think would be more than eager to set picks, cut, etc. to help this kid be an effective PG.

Louis Williams might be a dynamic scorer but we already have that skillset with Monta and Magette.