What's changing

The coaching staff remains stable with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in place, and former assistant Brian Daboll returning to the fold. New England never stands pat schematically, especially on offense. There's just no way to know how they'll change. Perhaps coach Bill Belichick will bring back the Wing-T offense.

» CB Aqib Talib: It will be fascinating to see how much Belichick values Talib after an uneven run with the Patriots. The Patriots remain very thin in the secondary, especially with Kyle Arrington also a free agent.

What they need

Whether the team re-signs Welker or not, the Patriots have to add numbers at receiver in free agency and the draft. The defense is in better long-term shape than it has been in a while, but there are still big holes in the secondary and a need for more pass rushers. The Patriots have fewer draft picks to play with than usual after cashing in chips last year.

Offseason crystal ball

Look for the Patriots to keep two of their three big free agents above, with Talib my pick to leave. The team can use the franchise tag on Welker or Vollmer. A trade of backup quarterback Ryan Mallett to old buddy Michael Lombardi and the Cleveland Browns might be too obvious to actually happen. Also league sources told NFL.com's Ian Rapoport that tight end Rob Gronkowski will be pictured shirtless at some point this offseason.