Just a couple hours ago, I wrote this about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ ostensible hemming and hawing about their pursuit of 25-year-old Japanese stud Masahiro Tanaka: “Team CEO Stan Kasten tempered enthusiasm about the Dodgers actually landing Tanaka when asked, saying that he wouldn’t predict it. How much that actually means … eh. I still expect the Dodgers to be heavily involved.”

Heavily involved, indeed …

The #Dodgers have let it be known they plan to go all-out in their efforts to sign Tanaka, saying they and certainly won't be out-bid.

Given their resources, there was little reason to believe the Dodgers wouldn’t make a serious play for Tanaka, presuming he’s interested (and there are whispers that he prefers the West Coast). Sure, the Dodgers have seven capable starting pitchers as it is, but a couple of them are hurt (Beckett and Billingsley), and they have only three studs in the rotation right now. How can they be expected to compete?

That makes the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Mariners all favorites for Tanaka in their own right. The Cubs’ chances seem further reduced. Still, we’ll see how things play out.

Incidentally, if the Dodgers won’t be outbid on Tanaka, and if reports of the Cubs’ plan not to be outbid are true as well, then he’s staring down an eleventy gajillion contract over the next 580 years. I could see going to two lifetimes on Tanaka, but, by that third lifetime, I’m not so sure that splitter will have as much bite.

I’m just worried that most of his first lifetime will be spent on a Cubs team that just isn’t ready to compete yet, and that his contract might become a burden during his second lifetime, when the Cubs actually are competeing.

BT

Clearly this reflects poorly on Theo and Jed. Somehow.

Kyle

The fact that we are in such desperate shape that this one player is needed so badly reflects poorly on them.

BT

Sigh.

One player isn’t desperately needed. What possible difference does Tanaka make to the 2014 Cubs? The only difference he makes would be to shut up people who say the Cubs are never going to sign anyone, and now the increasingly odd contingent who profess the Cubs are only going to PRETEND to sign him.

That’s why I want Tanaka. So I don’t have to hear that bleating any more. I’m not convinced he will be any better than a #3 starter, but I’d love to just sign someone so people will find something else to complain about.

EQ76

“What possible difference does Tanaka make to the 2014 Cubs? ” – who gives a crap what he does for 2014… it’s more about what he does for the 2015, 2016, & 2017 Cubs.. when it matters.

Kyle

Tanaka would make a huge difference in the 2015 and 2016 Cubs as well.

Without a major splash in that time period, the Cubs will not likely be competitive within the division. And if this isn’t the major splash, there’s no reason to think there will be one, because the won’t find a better spot. Perfect age, perfect fit, requires nothing but cash.

Jason P

It’s pretty much impossible to project where the Cubs will be in 2016, with or without Tanaka. Prior to 2012, I’m sure most would have projected we’d have a much better ML team heading into 2014 than we actually do. But the pendulum swings both ways. Who’s to say we won’t be pleasantly surprised by how quickly Baez or Bryant develop, or how well Rizzo/Castro bounceback.

Even setting that aside, I think it’s pretty unlikely the Cubs sit out the next 2 offseasons the way they have this one.

CubFan Paul

“I’m sure most would have projected we’d have a much better ML team heading into 2014 than we actually do”

That’s because Theo&Co lead us to believe so.

But Again, through Mooney, in his latest piece, the Front Office pushes back the timeline by a year.

…& after going back for that exact quote on the timeline, this was found in its place:

“25-year-old Japanese ace would fit into the long-range business/baseball plans at a renovated Wrigley Field and *a future TV network*”

Jason P

The thought process was “well, yeah rebuilding usually takes upwards of 5-7 years, but we’re a large market team, and we’ll use our large market advantages to speed things up”.

What happened ’12 and ’13 actually supported that ideology — going after Sanchez, Ryu, and Jackson; spending big on Soler/blowing by last year’s international spending limit; signing pieces like Maholm/Feldman that made us more competitive in the first half and later bought us a few prospects; being able to hold onto Dempster/Garza/Soriano and get max prospect return when smaller market teams may have had to accept salary relief and a lesser package; I could go on.

Outside of the bullpen, there haven’t been those signings this year. That lowers the already-slim chance we had of competing this year, but I don’t think it inhibits the rebuild long-term. I agree with Kyle in the sense that our chances of surprising next year probably live and die (I’m using the term “live” loosely, of course) with Tanaka, but I think he’s overstating the impact not signing Tanaka would have long-term.

Kyle

My big problem is: If not Tanaka, who?

We keep hearing that they are willing to go big on the right guys and fapping over potential Price or Stanton trades, but if they whiff on Tanaka, am I really supposed to believe they won’t whiff on the next guy?

And if we’re just waiting for prospects to mature and carry the team, that’s going to take a few more years. Baez may be useful in 2015, but he’s not going to be hitting his prime until 2017 or 2018.

Jason P

I think “whiff” is the wrong word. They just haven’t seriously pursued many of the big names.

If they wait for prospects to come up and “carry the team”, they aren’t going to compete until 2017 or 2018. But there has to be some sort of homegrown core in place before they start pursuing the big name free agents, or else the value you add won’t do you a whole lot of good. Unfortunately, that core is not currently in place, so signing a 31-year-old Choo for 7 years wouldn’t have made much sense.

Honestly, even though “we don’t have the money yet” might be the publicized reason they’re moving the timeline back, I think it probably has a lot more to do with them being disappointed in how certain players have developed and realizing they simply don’t have the young core they thought they’d have at this point.

We’re pushing the timeline back because we don’t have the money yet sounds a whole lot better than “we’re pushing the timeline back because we’re disappointed with the way our players have developed”.

baldtaxguy

“But there has to be some sort of homegrown core in place before they start pursuing the big name free agents, or else the value you add won’t do you a whole lot of good.”

Generally…true. But Tanaka is not your typical big name free agent.

“I think it probably has a lot more to do with them being disappointed in how certain players have developed and realizing they simply don’t have the young core they thought they’d have at this point.”

I have to agree. Using the benefit of hindsight, Sanchez, Puig, or Cespedes, could have been “young core” adds, putting the team further along. Good point.

Voice of Reason

Kyle:

Tanaka is not coming to the cubs.

When the cubs are ready to compete there will be a #2 starter like Tanaka available thru trade or free agency.

The cubs don’t need a $25 million dollar #2. Other trams are ready to win in 2014 and will step up and pay the big bucks for him. Along those same lines, even if the cubs matches the top bid why would Tanaka chose to play with the cubs over other teams with better talent and ready to win in 2014.

Bill

Didn’t Theo say he didn’t want to spend money on past performance? He said he didn’t want to invest big money in guys who weren’t in their prime. Tanaka fits in to the player Theo said he would be willing to spend big money to bring in.

Sure, the Cubs could maybe (emphasis) a number 2 starter in a year or two. However, if they go the trade route they are going to be giving up good young prospects, and if they are going the FA route they will have to pay $20M+/yr for someone who is on the wrong side of 30 years old. They will be paying for someone who is likely to be regressing badly by the end of their contract. Tanaka, even if signed to a 5-6 year deal will still be in this prime years.

Noah_I

Of course, that depends on if you view it as this “one player being needed”, and who you blame for the team being in such “desperate shape.” First, whether Tanaka is “needed” or merely fits the description of the type of player the Cubs said they would go after in free agency (players who should be in their primes through the course of the contract) is debatable. Second, if the Cubs are in such desperate shape due to a lack of high end pitching talent, is that Theo’s and Jed’s fault (e.g., did they fail to acquire players they should have despite having the budgetary room to do so?) or is it the fault of other issues (the late Tribune era contracts plus whatever spending restrictions are placed upon the Cubs by the Ricketts’ ownership either by choice or due to the debt structure of their deal to buy the Cubs.)

josh ruiter

Bro,
by that line of thinking how do you explain the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners, Angels, maybe even Red Sox/Blue Jays also saying they will not be outbid and will sign at all costs. To me it is less of statement of the Cubs current talent level and more a statement of the direction owners/gm’s believe baseball is headed. You sign players to lavish contracts when they are available…and when they are young you up the ante. That is why every club with money is going all out on Tanaka. Not because of desperation.

terencemann

Tanaka doesn’t come with compensation attached which probably ups his value. We saw the Cubs bid heavily on 2 pitchers who weren’t attached to compensation last year. Tanaka is younger than both of them which leads me to believe it’s possible.

Ha… Now Theo just needs to pretend he on Storage Wars…. Once the bidding starts all he needs to know is Yeuuupp. Take this Yankees and Dodgers to the brink and drop out once you get these guys up to about $25MM a year. Maybe someday Theo will have all the money he can spend and play this game as well. But it he doesn’t have the cards or the bank roll the play at this table.

When The Musics Over

I don’t agree with this. Teams sign players to big contracts for many different reasons, one of which is desperation of sorts.

bbmoney

So they go all out to sign Tanaka and give Kershaw 250M plus?

CubFan Paul

“So they go all out to sign Tanaka and give Kershaw 250M plus?”

No effin way.

bbmoney

So the question is which one doesn’t happen?

Blackhawks1963

Dodgers probably end up giving Kershaw $300 M unless his arm falls off during the 2014 season. Their overall payroll is going to be north of $250 million a season very soon. They have taken the Yankee model of spending to whole other unimagineable level.

ClevelandCubsFan

They’ll be north of 250 when the luxury tax cap is raised to 250.

Blackhawks1963

So what we have here will be an EXTREME bidding war between the Yankees and the Dodgers. The Yankees have little option remaining except to sign Tanaka (they are THAT desperate for a frontline starting pitcher), while the Dodgers simply want another new toy for the garage.

Let these two mega-powers have at it. Each of those teams can “afford” Tanaka not to pan out…the Cubs cannot…not at the level of dollars we are talking about.

Senor Cub

I still think going after Tanaka is the wrong approach. This team could be formidable(.500) with the current pitchers still needing to sign. Tanaka alone will not make this team a playoff team. Perhaps they can get the three good pitchers out there still.

Shark
Santana
Garza
Jimenez
Wood

Looks good to me.

Boogens

I was really happy to unload Garza when we did (especially considering the haul). He’s too high maintenance and brittle to rely on.

DocPeterWimsey

The fact that teams not pursuing Tanaka also do not seem to be heavily pursuing Santana, Garza or Jimenez tells us a lot, too.

fortyonenorth

It was mentioned yesterday that Tanaka’s team was grooming him for the posting by starting him against the weaker teams in the league and, thus, pumping up his stats. Is there any truth to that? I could see the motivation, especially when they thought they were in line for a $75 mil payday.

OlderStyle

Man, the Dodgers are going from Light Speed to Ludicrous Speed in short order…

mrcub1958

The top pitcher in Japan is coming to the US and will sign with the Dodgers so he can get $28m per year instead of $25, thus being a #4 behind a South Korean?
I side with thinking that where he goes being a #1 will be critical.

Diehardthefirst

Castro had to kickback $$$$ – wonder about Tanaka to make up 30 mil shortfall in posting fee- investigation anyone?

Noah_I

I’d just like to note that this story came from Bob Nightengale, who has reported things multiple times in recent years without the proper sourcing and corroboration.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Dodgers were in, and seriously, on Tanaka, but clearly four teams can’t all “not be outbid.”

DocPeterWimsey

No, that just means that at least 3 FOs are lying: in fact, only one team really wants Tanaka, and the others are just angling for the coveted #2 bragging rights

hansman

Well, since Theo has the media in his backpocket that means that 2 teams are angling for the slightly less coveted #3 bragging rights.

Norm

According to Keith Law’s latest chat, Garza’s medicals are scaring teams off a bit.

Blackhawks1963

Which makes the Garza trade to Texas all the more impressive.

terencemann

Yeah, I think not trying to push him out for early deals and making teams come to them worked out (we don’t know everything about how it went down but that seemed to be the case from what information is available). Hopefully they’ll do the same in the future.

When The Musics Over

Not really. Texas got the starts they wanted out of him. Not sure if they were of the quality they were looking for, but he pitched every outing.

http://BN Sacko

Yippy TheoJed say they are all in on Tanaka, well I doubt Tanaka is all in on the Cubs. I’ll write I was wrong 50 xs on here if he does. They should be working more seriously on getting Shark to stay and getting 2 more starting pitchers that will not fear getting flipped.

frank

That would be my question–how many upgrades could be made with the money it would take to sign Tanaka? And–how interested is he in coming to Chicago if the money is equal?

terencemann

Not many. If his AAV is 20 MM in the end, then you’re looking at one above average player and one player similar to the kind of players the Cubs have on the team already or a reclamation project.

terencemann

For example, you could sign Garza or Jimenez but not both with that money.

Mike F

Absolutelly. Rather than give bat shit crazy money to Tanaka, extend Shark and add a quality arm, draft the best available arm and save at least 15M for the future. Tanaka will get Bat Shit Crazy money. His addition now at what he gets changes nothing. As we speak this is one of the worst Cub offenses in modern memory and all the earmarks of a 100 loss season. I would even be more supportive of trading for Price than what this Tanaka fiasco is shaping up to. They again have painted themselves into a piss poor situation by being so adamant about not being outbid and all in…. It is almost a joke.

http://bleachernation.com woody

I’m with you all the way. My sentiments exactly.

CubFan Paul

“and save at least 15M for the future”

Because that’s worked so well…

Mike F

What the hell are we talking about here…. some of you are in the FO chorus and then we see stuff like this? Huh? I don’t know of it has worked so well or not, but should people who have constantly laughed at any attempt to win now, really bitch about saving money for when they get serious about winning? Wow, maybe I have you mixed up, but seems you should be the last person questioning that.

Incidentally, seems clear the beginning point with the players involved in this Tanaka thing will be much higher and longer than people ever thought……

CubFan Paul

“maybe I have you mixed up”

Yeah, you do. Apologize whenever.

Mike F

So you haven’t been advocating not spending much, depending on the farm system, and haven’t been excusing free agent lack of activity as the team is said to be cash poor? Then indeed I do have you mixed up and am apologetic……

I would have sworn someone with your name was constantly criticizing those calling for action, but I stand corrected.

CubFan Paul

“I do have you mixed up and am apologetic”

Thank you friend.

“I would have sworn someone with your name was constantly criticizing those calling for action”

In that context, definitely not. Talk to Cubsfanbob or Cubsfandan or the other knock off.

Mike F

You’re definitely right, I’m definitely wrong. Just saw the name I was thinking of…. I am very sorry. My bad.

Fastball

I am sure the Dodgers are thinking they will have the Oriental fan base in LA going nuts over a Tanaka signing. They will make a fortune off Tanaka jerseys etc. That along with the Japanese will actually show up for the games when they begin instead of the 3rd inning. They can also start selling Asahi Beer and make a bunch of money on beer sales. All that considered he won’t cost the Dodgers that much out of pocket with all the increased revenues.

ClevelandCubsFan

The “oriental” fan base? Really? You do realize there are a lot of countries in the “Orient” right? They have very different cultures and languages and people. Generally referring to the as “oriental” is taken as rather offensive.

Diehardthefirst

telling everyone how you feel about commentary is often more offensive than the comments because it implies that the commenter is racist bigoted and insensitive – well I have a wake-up call for you- every owner at this instant is calculating ways to expand its fan base and I can assure you that some of the ways being considered likely would be actionable if provable-

ClevelandCubsFan

Diehard… fastball…
1. Oriental had been considered an offensive word for decades by many, many people.
2. Imagining that Tanaka is going to increase the fan base in China, Vietnam, Afghanistan is silly and insensitive. That’s my bigger point. Will it increase the Japanese fan base? Yes. In fact there’s nothing wrong with that. I’ve argued elsewhere that it would be a good strategy if the Cubs were signing small splash Japanese players (eg Fujikawa) to help make the Cubs seem an attractive destination for a big star. These are calculations that go beyond WAR.
3. I’m not suggesting Fastball is “racist or biggoted.” I’d say so if I believed so. I’m simply saying that generically lumping a lot of Asian people groups together under the term oriental is offensive and hurtful to many people. Google it. If you’re not aware of this, you should know. That’s all.

CubsFanSaxMan

The question to ask is: how much talent (or how many players) can be bought with the money that it will take to get Tanaka? And is one player at that much money going to make a bigger difference than several players adding up to the same amount of money? That is what Theo and the fans (yes – the fans) need to decide. I for one say – buy all the less expensive players!

http://BN Sacko

they’re doing that already look at that roster. Holy..and Tanaka want’s in on that? Nor does Shark.

CubsFanSaxMan

No, they are currently buying the really cheap players. There is a happy medium in there somewhere.

itzscott

Okay by me if the Dodgers sign Tanaka. Too much risk of the unknown for the amount of money it’ll take to sign for my comfort level. I’ve seen how these types if contracts have handcuffed the Cubs before.

In my way if thinking, if the Dodgers sign Tanaka, that makes Zach Lee very available to the Cubs at a much more reasonable price than Tanaka and I’d be very happy to plug him into a Cub rotation if a deal can be swung. What could the Dodgers possibly need from the Cubs or any other team for Lee? Vogelbach? Money? Who knows??

Spoda17

This is just going to get worse before it gets better. If/when the Cubs do not sign Tanaka, it will be seen a huge failure for Theo and Jed, and Ricketts… but I’m sure all of the other teams “blog-base” will be less critical of their FO then Cubs fans and critics. The reality of it is, one team will sign Tanaka, and 29 other teams will not.

terencemann

There are going to be a lot of fan bases who aren’t happy about missing out on Tanaka. There are a lot of Mariners fans who want Jack Z’s head already.

http://www.ehanauer.com clark addison

Remember when Larry Himes signed 3 players for the price he would have had to pay for Maddux? I wonder what ever became of them.

cms0101

I think it was more than 3 players. Jose Guzman, Willie Wilson, Candy Maldonado, Dan Plesac, Randy Myers. Guzman threw a 2-hit shutout, 2 outs away from a no-hitter on the 2nd day of the season. They finished the season, their last in the NL East, above .500. Had the wild card been in place they would have made the playoffs. They switched to the 3 divisions in 1994, adding the wild card.

MichaelD

The Cubs would not have made the playoffs in 1993 with a wild card. They did finish above .500, but they were 4th in the NL East and had the 7th best record in the NL. They would not have won the NL Central either (assuming the same records) as the Cardinals and Astros had better records. 1993 was an expansion year so there were more wins to spread around. Also both divisions had a team that was even worse than the expansion teams.

You may be thinking of 1995, when the Cubs finished 3rd in the NL Central and 3rd in the Wild Card. However, despite having the 6th best record in the NL they would have won the old NL East.

CubsFaninMS

These front offices are beginning to sound like used car salesman. It’s clear their rhetoric is a beacon of light meant to attract their moth (Tanaka). Publicity control has become a more common tool with this front offices nearly to the point where their words carry much less weight than before.

CubsFaninMS

“What can we do to get you into this team today?”

http://BN Sacko

I’m all in on this team today but we are not very attractive to FA and fans right now.

cubzfan

I would like to see the Cubs facilitate the Dodgers’ signing of Tanaka. Take Ethier and Billingsley off their hands for a few players. Include Carlos Villanueva, a reliever with options left (Neil Ramirez, Hector Rondon, Zach Rosscup), plus a couple decent young guys buried by our system’s depth (Christian Villanueva, Jae-Hoon Ha, Marco Hernandez type of players), and take on about 2/3 of the remaining money on the Ethier and Billingsley deals. Put Ethier in left and put Billingsley in the rotation when he comes back late summer, probably to deal him at season’s end (he’d have one year left on his contract).

When this all started I handed out extreme percentages that it would be yanks or dodgers and some couldn’t believe it.

Deep pockets and a desire and need to win now.

D-Rock

Is this John Shea guy a credible reporter? How does he know this, I wonder? Has he been in contact with Tanaka’s agent? I doubt it. Sounds like speculation and trying to drum up a rumor to get people talking.

http://bleachernation.com woody

I have to think that the dodgers are the team most likely to make it to the world series next year. But I’m sure that the cardinals will have something to say about that.

ruby2626

This entire revenue sharing thing in baseball needs to be totally redone. Dodgers getting that yearly $350M broadcasting contract puts them head and shoulders above every other franchise. Would love to know how much of that is kicked back to the other MLB teams. If they had a $200M payroll they could probably let in every fan for free and still make a huge profit.

aaronb

Problem with the Cubs isn’t revenue though. According to Forbes we’ve been the most profitable team in Baseball.

Our revenue hasn’t dipped below 4th place.

The problem is desire to reinvest money and ownership being greedy.

Cubsleeram

I’ve never really understood the criticism of the ownership being greedy. A successful baseball team generates money, plain and simple. Thus, it’s in Ricketts’ best interest to put a winning team on the ball field. That means investing dollars into the big league club.

That would be the equivalent of me putting $1,000 under my mattress when I could just as easily invest it in a CD, stock, or bond, earning interest on my money. Why sit on the money when there’s more to be had?

Unfortunately, we were in such a devoid state when Ricketts took over that a complete rebuild was required, hence the artificially deflated payroll. That’s not greed, that accepting the bitter reality of the late 2000’s Cubs.

http://www.rdacpaltd.com rdacpa

“The problem is desire to reinvest money and ownership being greedy.”

Do you have any inside information to substantiate this claim?

The Cubs are one of the most profitable teams in the the league because they have to be due to the leveraged partnership deal structure that Zell insisted on when The Tribune Company divested itself of the team and it’s associated assets. The CBA requires that a team’s debt load can not exceed 8 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). According to Note 9 of The Tribune Company’s audited financial statements, a $705 million distribution was taken by The Tribune Company. In a leveraged partnership, cash can only be taken out tax-free by the “selling” partner from the cash resulting from debt incurred by the partnership’s assets. This would suggest that the Cubs’ debt would be in excess of $705 million. This debt can not be paid down without resulting in a taxable event to The Tribune Company. The leveraged partnership has to run 7 years for Zell’s tax-avoidance scheme to have any chance of success with the IRS. To comply with the CBA, the Cubs would have to operate an EBITDA in excess of $88.125 million each and every year with the debt at this level. The Cubs’ payroll before the “sale” to the Ricketts family was not incumbered by the need to operate at such a high profit because there is no evidence that the team carried any debt at that time. I have no idea if these profits were pocketed by the Ricketts family (95% ownership interest in the leveraged partnership) or reinvested back into the club. However, the reason the Cubs are a very profitable team is due to the debt load resulting from Zell’s insistence on the leveraged partnership deal structure and not because ownership is greedy.

Jon

Well, when you tank for 3+ seasons, you give the experience of a “loser” and it can turn off many FAs. One of the unfortunate outcomes for the approach they chosen for the organization.

When The Musics Over

Exactly, however, people don’t like to hear about the negative byproducts.

Bob from Salem

Bob Nightingale has been wrong before…although I would not be surprised if the Dodgers sign Tanaka….

Did any of you hear Boars and Bernstein today?? They actually complemented the Cubs Plan…speaking highly of the Cub prospects….

http://www.chicagocubsbleachertickets.com Cub Fan Dan

From everybody’s favorite hall of fame voter!…

@kengurnick 12m
Dodgers aren’t nearly as eager to enter a bidding war for Masahiro Tanaka as they were a year ago for Hyun-Jin Ryu

Dodgers not expected to make huge push for Tanaka
The Dodgers aren’t nearly as likely to engage in a bidding war for Japanese free-agent pitcher Masahiro Tanaka as they were a year ago when they landed Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. Although reports…
View on web

CubFan Paul

from Gurnick

“it isn’t clear to the club where Tanaka would slot into an already loaded starting rotation headed by Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke…If his decision comes down to the highest financial offer…it probably won’t come from the Dodgers, the source indicated…Young starters closest to the Major Leagues, based on their participation in this week’s Player Development Camp: Zack Lee, Ross Stripling, Matt Magill and Chris Reed”

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