Air Strike in Syria - The Opening Move?

Proliferation of strategic weapons will not be tolerated, no matter what the price.

If, as international media reports say, Israel was indeed behind last week's air strikes in Syria, it can be assumed that the attack was the opening move in a longer-term strategy to contain quickly-developing threats emerging from Syria, as well as the broader Iran-Hezbollah axis.

The ball is now in the court of Syrian president Bashar Assad and his allies in Beirut and Tehran. If they attempt further weapons transfers to Hezbollah, more air strikes can be expected - a development that will result in a wider conflict.

Iran is also releasing threats of serious retaliation against Israel, a threat which, if realized, could easily lead to a regional escalation. Days before the airstrikes, Iran warned that it would view any attack on Syria as an attack on itself.

For months, Israel has said that it would not allow strategic, advanced Syrian weapons - be they game-changing missiles or chemical weapons - to fall into the hands of Hezbollah or Al-Qaeda-affiliated elements.

As Gatestone Institute readers learned a week before the strike, Israel has no intention of relying on defense only to deal with a transfer of such weapons to the wrong hands.

Israel has remained mum over the strike, and little reliable information has surfaced over what targets were struck, but reports citing Western intelligence officials said a convoy carrying advanced SA-17 Syrian anti-aircraft missiles were the target.

The SA-17 system in Hezbollah's possession would limit the IAF's ability to carry out vital sorties over Lebanon, whether for reconnaissance, or to attack Hezbollah targets in a future conflict.

Within days of the air strikes, Syrian state media said the target was a military research center near Damascus that carried out work aimed at "raising the level of resistance and self-defence."

It is entirely possible that both a "research center" and an arms convoy were struck.

Syria's vague description of the center fits well with a weapons proliferation organization known as the Scientific Studies and Research Center (better known by its French acronym, CERS).

CERS is a Syrian state organization responsible for developing biological and chemical weapons, missiles, and transferring weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas.

In the past, Israel's former head of the National Security Council's Counter-Terrorism Bureau, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Nitzan Nuriel called on the international community to warn Syria that CERS "will be demolished" if it continues arming terrorist organizations.

According to open source intelligence reports, CERS developed ricin-based chemical weapons. The center was designated as an illegal weapons proliferator by former President George Bush and the US Treasury.

On Saturday, Syrian state TV released footage showing wreckage from the air strikes.

The images appear to have inadvertently verified reports of an arms convoy being the target, as they showed large military trucks that were destroyed in the attack – vehicles that resemble trucks designed to transport anti-aircraft systems.

All parties concerned are aware of the fact that the Assad regime is fighting for its life, and will seek to avoid opening a second front against Israel. Any direct attack on Israel by Syria endangers Assad's immediate survivability.

On the other hand, Iran's threats cannot be ignored, and the possibility of retribution was factored in before taking the decision to launch the air strikes.

Iran and Hezbollah could activate terrorist cells abroad to attack overseas Israeli interests. Alternatively, terrorists acting on their behalf could fire missiles at Israel from Syrian or Lebanese territory.

It would be safe to assume that the IDF is on its highest alert for such developments.

Despite the escalated tensions, Jerusalem is projecting a business-as-usual message. Defense Minister Ehud Barak travelled to Germany for an international security conference two days after the air strikes, and IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz, landed in Washington on Sunday for talks with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey.

Whatever happens next in the region, last Wednesday's air strikes mark a watershed in the gradual breakdown of the Syrian state, and send an unmistakable signal: That strategic weapons proliferation will not be tolerated, whatever the price.

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3 Reader Comments

Thomas Wells • Feb 5, 2013 at 16:27

Whether the Syrian research site was hit by intent or accident, you have to ask: did anything nasty in a petri dish or a cell culture crawl out? If not this time, how about in the future? In the event that Assad pulls a grand finale, sort of like a Viking funeral pyre, and wants to takes his enemies with him; this could have effects way beyond the Middle East, since infectious germs know no borders. A similar problem could occur if there were to be damage to germ facilities due to the fighting and disruptive chaos of war, as well as if jihadist terrorists obtained infectious materials and decided to distribute them in various areas - including America.

Since Obama recently has been in such a giving mood to the neo-caliphate members, maybe the American National Strategic Stockpile of medical counteragents to biological and chemical attacks should be checked to see if it is still all there - in case it is needed by Americans.

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Batya Casper • Feb 4, 2013 at 19:43

To sit on the sidelines and watch its enemies stockpile anti-aircraft missiles and chemical weapons is not a luxury Israel can afford. The Israel-Arab conflict consists of many Arab states, but only one Jewish state; and Jews cannot afford to lose what it has not had for centuries, and what it will not be granted again.

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Ethan P. • Feb 4, 2013 at 09:05

Israel must, and will, continue to act in her own interests. She certainly can no longer count on the USA. The new American policy seems to be containment of a nuclear Iran. And it is because of Iranian nuclear aspirations that I believe that Iran will do nothing. They cannot risk provoking an Israeli strike. And they have, with good reason, the belief that the USA will do it's utmost to prevent such a strike.

Rather, it would seem likely that Hezbollah will be activated at some point. And perhaps a Syrian-Israeli conflict will arise. And this might well play into Iran's long range intrests. An Israel embroiled in a long term conflict in Lebenon and Syria may be too busy to strike Iran.

And please consider this: with the intense anti-Israel fealings in the world capitols, to include the current POTUS, even a massive Israeli military victory would come at a high world outcry. Look at the world response to "Pillar of Cloud." (Admittedly the US backed Israel, but that was pre-election). It is possible the "Mad Mullahs" in Teheran might delight in whatever losses Israel inflicts if the final result is crippling sanctions on Israel.

And let us not forget the the other side boasts of the "victories" won in Lebanon, and Cast Lead and Pillar of Cloud in Gaza. So no matter what the facts on the ground, the Arab governments will spin another great victory. (Remember, Egypt still celebrates the "great victory" of 1973!).