In a perfect world . . .

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• The Astros would be a playoff team year in and year out. Still, I’m happy with the last decade. Over that time, the Astros have had only one losing season. In fact, there’s been only one sub-.500 season (2000) since 1992. Not a bad run for Drayton’s boys.

• The Astros would have upgraded at catcher and made a quality decision at third before now. I’m glad Morgan Ensberg is still here and predict he will do well this season (somewhere between 2005 and 2006 numbers), but the Astros publicly have been non-commital on his situation and have allowed rumors to perpetuate. There really isn’t anyone else in camp to challenge him, so at the very least Tim Purpura should say it’s his job to lose.

• There would either be no DH or both leagues would use it. Frankly, I don’t mind the DH, but I am adamantly against the present situation which has the leagues using a different set of rules. Especially considering the fact that there are interleague games and the World Series factored in. Either use it or don’t.

• Gerry Hunsicker would still be general manager and Drayton would let him build the best organization in the business. Not that I mind Purpura — I know some of you don’t care for him — but I had a sense that Gerry was fighting for the best results as far as personnel. He didn’t mind going to battle with Drayton if he thought he was right. And, of course, that’s why he is no longer in Houston. The jury is still out on whether Purpura is bumping heads with Drayton to get his point across and make his case.

• Drayton McLane, Tim Purpura and Phil Garner would get a copy of the comments posted here at least weekly and act accordingly. Some of the best baseball minds come through this blog so it stands to reason the powers-that-be should check in from time to time, right?

• Jeff Bagwell’s shoulder wouldn’t have quit on him and Craig Biggio could still hit that slider that breaks a foot off the plate. It’s difficult watching good guys lose their abilities.

• Roger Clemens would just say “Yes, I’m pitching and here’s where I’m going to play.”

• Bob Costas would be commissioner, Scott Boras would be a plumber in Europe and Pete Rose would admit he gambled and return to be a top manager in the majors.

• Teams would still play doubleheaders.

• You could take your family of four to a ballgame without having to take out a second mortgage. Does anyone remember what you would spend going to a game with your family 30 years ago? How ’bout 40 years ago when the Astrodome opened?

• Bats wouldn’t be corked, pitchers wouldn’t use “foreign substances” on their pitches and players wouldn’t use steroids. Oh, well, I did say “in a perfect world.”

Congrats to Purpura for getting the job done on arbitration-eligible players. Ensberg, Adam Everett and Jason Lane are now officially in the fold and all seem to be happy.

Rotoworld seems to believe Lane is a prime candidate to be traded this spring. Purpura seems to be excited to watch Lane compete for the right field job in spring training: “He’s probably one of the most motivated if not the most motivated player on the club.”

• • •

That fellow over at Fox Sports, Dayn Perry, says the “Cubs have only a decent shot” at winning the NL Central. The closer we get to Spring Training, the more I believe very little has changed in the division. Sure, the Cubs spent lots of money, but Berkman-Lee-Oswalt will be hard to beat.

• • •

The bullpen is the Astros’s deepest position in 2007. But take a look at the Red Sox pen. Five guys in the Sox pen are making $1.2 million or more and they don’t even have a true closer since Jon Papelbon is now factored into the starting rotation. Still think the Astros will be able to trade Brad Lidge for Josh Beckett?

• • •

Oh, you’re going to like this one. What’s the Astros’ weakest link? John Donovan at CNNSI has got one for Houston. Register your thoughts and then check out the Astros’ weakest link.

• • •

It must be the year of the Comeback Kids. Sammy Sosa wants to try again, Dave Veres is on the road back. Now, Fernando Tatis — only 32 years old — is trying to come back after sitting out the 2004 and 2005 seasons. He did play part of last season with the Orioles, where he played first, second and third. He had a couple of good years and some memorable moments with the Cardinals, but dropped off dramatically. Here’s a little assignment for some of you stat gurus: Do you see any similarities between Tatis’ numbers and Ensberg?

Hey Lowell, you forgot to add Mike Cuellar to your list of players traded away. Frankly, it’s too early to tell if Willy will be an All Star. In fact, fans and writers in Colorado are wondering how long he’ll be their center fielder. They’re already talking about the 2007 crop of free agent center fielders and how to fill “the black hole” in the center of the outfield.

Time will tell whether Willy is a Brian Hunter or a Kenny Lofton — somewhere in between.

How about we signed Darryle Ward again instead of Lane? It was the same money for both guys. I know Wards another LH pinch hitter, and hes not a real position guy, but we all know he can thump as a pinch hitter. Lane hasn’t looked like a good platoon guy, or as a pinch hitter. If youre gonna contend every year like the Astros, the window opens and closes real quick for prospects. Since that window looks like it appears closed for Lane, with Hidalgo taking his spot, personally I would rather have a guy(Ward) you know can thump off the bench, and not a guy(Lane) you hope can. If Lane loses his starting job, which he in all likelyhood has, he doesn’t have much value in other roles. At least thats the way I se it

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Ward has signed with the Cubs for 2007 with a mutual option for 2008. — Chip

However, there’s no way you or Pancho can convince me that Lane is “worth” what he’s getting.

I have no idea why you included me in this, I have earthly desire to “convince” anyone of anything. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, so I’m not here to change that for anyone.

Having said that, what Jason Lane is getting is not about opinions as much as it is the CBA signed by both the MLBPA and MLB. It is the salary structure that teams live with and as long as that is the case, salaries will always be what they are.

As far as cutting Jason Lane, I don’t make those decisions nor do I care to nor do I care to defend nor condemn those who do. It would the height of arrogance on my part to think I had the same information they do to make sound decisions or not make sound decisions.

Drayton McClain sells the Astros to Tillman Ferttita (CEO of Landry’s). He’s the type of guy that would make sure the Astros were on the map.

Tillman then fires Purpura and buys out Hunsicker’s contract with TB and brings him back and turns him loose with a huge budget.

Roger decides to pitch in Houston one more year and then retire for good.

The Astros make a deal for Todd Helton (I don’t know what we’d give up, but it’s my dream so just roll with it).

Biggio gets his 70 hits in April and retires. Loretta mans second for the rest of the year and wins the Sliver Slugger award for a second baseman.

Lidge finds his stuff again and wins the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award while recording 50+ saves.

Brad Ausmus hits .300 for the year with 30 HR and 100 RBI (I know, that’s way out there, but humor me).

The Cardinals start the season 0-30 and never recover. They finish 6th in the division.

ESPN, FOX, SI and all the other eastern biased media outlets give the Astros their overdue props and subsequently help aid Oswalt to a Cy Young award and Berkman to an MVP award by giving them their time in the spotlight.

Albert Pujols has a career ending injury(I know that’s harsh, but I really don’t like that guy).

Astros win ’07 World Series in 4 games over the NY Yankees in NY (that way no one can deny our dominance in the series). Jennings records the win and Pettite records the loss. Carlos Lee is named World Series MVP.

Before all of you go bashing everything I just said keep in mind it’s in “my” perfect world. A man can dream, right?

Didn’t everybody? Burke should have been at 2B in the second half, at least.

I didn’t know much about the Kent situation, and it’s pretty interesting to hear about how that went down. I think the last couple years have validated Hunsicker’s point of view on the matter, to an extent.

I hear you Darin, I didn’t say it would be popular or even right, thats just what went down. Hunsicker envisioned the GM job as one where he built the team. Sure the owner will have input, it’s his money, but McLane tends to go beyond input. That was kind of the last straw in the proverbial camels back for Hunsicker.It is why many will always think of Purpura as more of a yes man, right or wrong.It was Purpura/McLane that tried to sign Kent after they saw the writing on the wall about Beltran like you said. But by then Kent had pretty much made up his mind to look elsewhere when they didn’t pick up the option and we had lost what I thought was a better GM.

I really wish I could speak my mind about you, but I’ll bite my tongue. I never said the Astros negotiate freely with Boras. What I said is that – if they don’t negotiate freely with Boras it’s because of his tactics not his skill. But again, you fail to address anything of importance. You just continue to make things up. Why can’t you actually come up with something valid? Is it that hard for you?

Randy,

I didn’t say “cutting” Kent was soley Hunsicker’s decision, rather that it “was a decision made by Hunsicker/McLane.” I’ve heard the same rumors that you have and I’ve also heard that after they let Kent go, they attempted to resign him at a higer price than his contract. “IN A PERFECT WORLD” the Astros would have signed both plus Beltran and any other top free agent on the market in ’04, but seriously – Kent at around $10mil or Biggio at $3mil? Could you imagine the uproar after that? Fans would have been calling for McLane’s head, Hunsicker’s head and Kent’s head if Biggio had to go find a new team.

One thing that should be said…I’ve been a Lane supporter in the past, but whomever thinks he should be in a platoon situation with Scott should be shot. Lane actually hits lefties worse than righties,and has been like that his whole career. Willy T was like that also.

But Drayton McLane made a commitment to Craig Biggio for better or worse. So I understand why Burke will be playing CF at least for the first half of 2007. The objective is to finally get him on the field day in and day out.

Biggio’s a great story for the franchise and Astros fans. But let’s face it: He’s held up the progress of the team over the last few years.

If not for the march to 3,000, there’s no way anyone could argue that Biggio is anything more than a role player on a competitive team at this stage of his career.

To his credit Biggio has more or less held his own, second-half slides notwithstanding.

And to his credit, McLane has remained loyal to a franchise icon.

Lowell–

Of course I would have loved to have seen Carlos Beltran roaming CF for the Astros these last two seasons and the coming seasons. The Astros went for it and came away empty-handed. The fix was in. Lesson learned.

But an outfield of Lee and Beltran would never happen anyway. McLane would have never considered Carlos Lee if he was already paying Beltran.

The way the Kent/Hunsicker thing went down was Hunsicker wanted to pick up Kents option and let Biggio go. McLane then struck a deal with Biggio therefore cutting Kent out and Hunsicker walked. He knew then he would never be able to build the team like he wanted. The Beltran negotiations had little to do with this. It came down to a choice between Kent or Biggio, Hunsicker wanted Kent, McLane signed Biggio.

As far as Jeff Kent (from what I’ve heard/read) – Letting him go was a decision made by Hunsicker/McLane. The Astros had an OPTION that they declined, while Hunsicker was still the GM of the Astros. The option was declined on 10/28/04 and Tim Purpura was introduced as GM on 11/01/04. Purpura then tried to re-sign Kent at a higher price that the option because of the ongoing negotiations with Beltran were going so slow. Was trying to sign Beltran a mistake? Uh, no, but staying in as long as they did obviously was, but hindsight’s 50/50 and is there anyone here that wished Beltran wasn’t playin’ for the Astros?

Oh, and LOWELL, you keep amazing me here. You seem to just make everything up to back your arguement, such as the “Scott Boras Ban”. I know you won’t answer, because I am right on this, but if anyone else can tell me, I’d be happy to listen on when was the last time Scott Boras ripped off the Astros? I think if there was any ban, it would be for Boras’s practices, not his supposed superior negotiation skills. If a GM doesn’t want to make a deal, he doesn’t get dupped into it. He can always walk away.

You didn’t. I don’t agree with cutting Lane, since it would be a Preston Wilson situation again. But paying him what he’s set to earn in 2007 isn’t smart. Especially when it looks like an NRI is more motivated and more likely to take his spot.

Are there other fourth outfielders out there making roughly $1 million? If so, I’ll find another topic.

“We differ on the criteria to evaluate the performance of a baseball GM”

Winning is the most important thing. I just think that a GM has to get the right players in there. This is Timmy P’s year to show that he can do just that.

“If he EVER gets a chance to play his natural position it would not surpise me if he turns out some pretty good numbers”

What do you think of Burke as a center fielder? It’s been discussed before, but I don’t remember if you gave your take on it or not, Armando.

2007 doesn’t look like it’ll be Burke’s year to be playing his natural position.

Would you go all in at a high-stakes card game if you suspected the cards were marked?

Who says a Boras deal is important for a World Series championship anyway?

Scan his list of clients. There are maybe less than 10 members of WS Championship teams. That’s fairly modest when you scan the long client list going back over twenty years.

And some prominent names like Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Zambrano, and Barry Bonds are listed as former clients.

Willy Taveras an All-Star? That’s quite a declaration. I wouldn’t bet on that one. Nice player but too many “buts” at this point.

And don’t be so quick to discount Burke’s ability. If he EVER gets a chance to play his natural position it would not surpise me if he turns out some pretty good numbers. Even if he doesn’t, he still has a knack for getting it done in key spots. He seems to like being in those spots. You can’t coach that.

Scott Boras is not Darth Vader. Other GMs in MLB deal with Boras. We can’t because Drayton and Timmy P are chickens. There are ways to do deals with people like Boras. If you automatically eliminate any Boras client from consideration, the universe of good players to choose from shrinks. The blanket anti-Boras policy makes out team worse. Timmy P is to blame. Drayton is scared to let Timmy P go against Boras — it would be like putting Michael Jackson in the ring against Mike Tyson.

You can quote any stat you like, A-Fax. But it was Willy T getting the record for consecutive hits, not Burke. Willy T has a higher batting average. Take your statistical babble over to your fantasy baseball sandbox with the other girls.

Bottom Line: Willy T will be an All-Star. Burke will not.

Astro pitchers will be giving up a lot more doubles and triples this year because Burke has a girl arm.

“Judging Tim Purpura’s capabilities as a GM is premature. He’s only been in charge there for two years”

He’s done enough to show what kind of GM he will be.

“What would have been stupid was to cut Lane”

Well, it would be nice to get SOMETHING for him, like a bag of popcorn and a duffel bag full of sunflower seeds, for example.

But it’s even more stupid to give him $1.05 million. Not quite as stupid as Lane’s offer, maybe. One thing that ridiculous offer did do was raise Lane’s salary, so maybe his mind isn’t totally gone. However, there’s no way you or Pancho can convince me that Lane is “worth” what he’s getting.

If you want to play the ‘blame game’, why not be fair and reasonable about it?

I choose this version of reality:

As for letting Jeff Kent ‘get away’ and losing Beltran to the Mets:

Drayton McLane made an executive decision that the Astros were going after Beltran no-matter-what and that decision may have precluded bringing back Kent given the money he would command.

This decision tipped Gerry Hunsicker over to a surprise resignation. Hunsicker likely foresaw how dealing with Scott Boras on Boras’ terms would likely play out but could not talk McLane out of it. I think Tim P had his marching orders there.

And, after that fiasco, who WOULD want future dealings with the likes of fork-tongued Scott Boras? What some call fear others call prudence.

Taveras was dealt because that’s what it took to get Jason Jennings. It’s that simple.

Back to the game: Jason Lane’s outrageous 2007 salary had nothing to do with Tim P’s man-love. Blame the players association’s superiority over ownership in labor negotiations over the last 30 years for that. That’s just the market playing out. What would have been stupid was to cut Lane.

For startes, you failed to mention Burke not being an everyday player or getting hurt.

You also failed to point out how many times Willy got caught stealing and you did not break the steals down by successful attempts or games played.

What about comparing walks (ratio)?

Or…OBP?

Oh…and one other minor stat…OPS

You may want to look that one up and compare. While you are at it, look up and compare RISP. After doing so, would you please share them with us?

Burke is not only a better offensively player than Willy – He is WAY better. This is not even arguable.

As for defense, you failed to mention Willy’s terrible routes to ball’s.

A couple of more FACTS:

When Willy was in the minors, scouts predicted that he would not be an offensive threat in the majors becasue he could not hit the ball out of the infield. This is exactly the case.

And…before you post that Willy is still young and has much potential and will do nothing but improve offensively, please review the 2005 and 2006 stats. Let me sum it up…They are almost identicle. Zero improvement.

What a complete biased post. If you are going to make an argument – do it with all of the facts and cards on the table.

In a perfect world, the Astros wouldn’t have to be worried about 4/5ths of their rotation going into Spring Training. Yes, Jennings may do well, but there apparently is quite a question mark about how well he will do in Houston considering he has had only one winning season. Woody should do well, but he’s 40 and then there are the other two slots.

As for Willy T., people in colorado are also wondering if he can hit. There’s already talk that if he doesn’t work out, they could make a change quickly.

Timmy P got the GM job in 2004. There’s plenty of time passed to evaluate his performance. If a player doesn’t produce in that amount of time, he gets sent to the minors. The same should happen to Timmy P — back to the minors.

I knew we had locked into a bad trip almost immediately after Timmy P took the job. We let Kent get away and lost Beltran to the Mets.

And we were humiliated by Scott Boras in the Beltran affair.

Drayton realizes that Boras is 10 times smarter and 20 times more shrewd than Timmy P. So Drayton made a ban on Scott Boras clients. And that was a causal factor in the trade of Willy Taveras – Timmy was afraid he would have to negotiate against Boras, who reps Willy.

The fruits of Timmy’s labours — Huff, Preston Wilson and Jason Jennings have not impressed anyone. And it will be worse when Jason Jennings busts.

Getting Loretta was a good move. Otherwise Timmy has not impressed.

Timmy’s infatuation with Jason Lane is embarrasing. Every one in the world realizes Lane is a AAA player. But Timmy just gave him a raise to $1 million a year.

The World Series year was just Timmy playing out the hand that Gerry had dealt him.

That’s the most rediculous arguement I’ve ever seen for Willy Taveras being a better hitter than Burke.

1st off Taveras is one dimensional, having only his speed as his primary weapon. Which given his propencity to strikeout and inability to take a walk (even in the minors) makes for a very un-useful leadoff hitter. Throw in the fact that he is probably has the most over-rated speed in the game, and we are starting to look at a guy that is best suited as a 4th/5th outfielder and not an everyday lead off hitter. By the way, there’s no stats to back me on this, but he has to be one of the leaders in Ks when trying to bunt…which means he’s a BELOW AVERAGE BUNTER!! Even the happless Everett bunts better than him.

2nd, the “hit streak” you speak off was more of a “bunt/hit streak”, not something you can really be proud of. Prior to that he had been benched because he wasn’t producing(.262 AVG prior to August)…after the “bunt/hit streak” was over he went back to sucking, posting a .260 AVG and .321 OPB for the months of Sept/Oct. So for the month of August he posted a .328 AVG and the rest of the year he posted a .262 AVG…and I’m supposed to think this guy’s good or consistant?? PUH-LEASE!

3rd, Burke’s bum shoulder? It’s his left shoulder not his right that got hurt and has since been fixed, which everyone here seems to know but you, so his throwing won’t be an issue. And I think the concensus around baseball is that the Astros aren’t losing any range because Willy has trouble tracking balls and he’s only a step faster than Burke. I will admit I am concerned about the throwing, only because Lee and Scott are not known for their throwing arms, so 3 outfielders with average to below average arms may mean an extra few runs get scored this year.

5th, the ‘Stros need someone to get on base for Berkman and Lee – in a inconsistant role last year, Burke still managed to get on base at a better rate than Willy.

6th, when Burke played CF last year, he batted .295, with a .381 OBP and slugged .500, that right there would make him one of the best CFers in baseball….

Last, IT IS WHAT IT IS. Taveras is gone and Burke is here, get over it. And tell me…which outfield would you rather have – Preston Wilson, Taveras and Jason Lane OOOORRRR Carlos Lee, Burke, and Scott? The choice is oh so easy for me.

Judging Tim Purpura’s capabilities as a GM is premature. He’s only been in charge there for two years.

Props to Lance Berkman for taking on a leadership role away from the park. He’s never been viewed as a team-leader type but maybe that’s changing. What he’s doing is not an easy thing. It’s much easier for someone in his position to, say, collect classic cars or start a record label or some other hobby with his spare cash and free time.

I just saw that the Cubs release Glendon Rusch a left-handed pitcher, the Astros need a experience pitcher well he might not be the best but who is else is there. They can signed him a one year contract & maybe the Astros can signed Jason Jennings maybe a 2 or 3 year contract. You think maybe the Astros can go after Sandy Alomar Jr as a back-up for Brad Ausmus. RobertB

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When a team releases a left-handed pitcher at this point in the year, you have to ask why? In this case, it’s unfortunate, but Rusch has health problems and would likely not pitch this season anyway. The Cubs released him to make room on their 40-man roster, but may invite him to Spring Training and keep him around this year to help him with his retirement benefits. — Chip

4. Purpura ain’t no Hunsicker. These days too often we hear, “Drayton won’t do that.” Gerry would get the deals done and had the strength of character to make things happen.

This is kind of shortsighted. It’s not all about getting deals done, because if making trades or signing free agents is the mark of great GM, then it would be a major disaster when all was said and done. The reality, sometimes a GM has to say “no” to a deal because it is just not good for the long term of team or it’s health in staying a consistent winner.

If the owner, for example, wanted to make a deal with a free agent for 250 million for 10 years and the GM knew the deal would hamstring the team’s viability to produce a consistent winner to do this, it would show a huge amount of character to me if said GM would step in and recommend that the deal *not* be made. I’ll use your own example of Gerry Hunsicker’s character to bring out this point better:

1998 offseason

The Houston Astros were bumped from the NLDS by the San Diego Padres and now they were facing losing ACE starter Randy Johnson to free agency. They were in play to make a run at Johnson along with the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Johnson chose the Diamondbacks. But Houston gets word from Roger Clemens representatives right before the winter meetings in Nashville that he is interested in asking the Toronto Blue Jays for a trade to Houston and would like to have his contract renogotiated by Houston if they were interested in obtaining him.

Houston was interested, however GM Gerry Hunsicker was concerned about the precedent this would create. It was a cost of trading for a player, but in essence negotiating with him as if he were a free agent. Be that as it were, Hunsicker took the lead and made offers to Gord Ash in Toronto and came really close to finalizing a deal for Clemens. The hurdle now was how much the Rocket would want in his renegotiation.

Hunsicker was shocked by the sticker price the Hendricks brothers asked for. One additional year added to the Rocket’s contract for 22 million. GM Gerry Hunsicker was in route to Nashville when he heard the price and he reacted angrily. He held a press conference right after he arrived in Nashville and not only said Houston was out of the running to trade for Clemens, but that he was appalled at the demands and he said other things to demean the Hendricks and Clemens demands. For their part, Team Rocket was angry that Hunsicker went public with everything and held their own press conference a few days later. In that PR, Roger Clemens said that he would never play on a team that had Gerry Hunsicker as the GM. I guess you never say never, but that is another issue.

What happened was that all of Houston was dissappointed that the deals went sour to bring favorite son Roger Clemens to Houston in 1999. Instead he went to New York and the rest is History. By the way, after Hunsicker made his announcement and created the annimosity with Team Rocket, Drayton McLane stepped in and revived the dealing with Clemens. He dealt with the money side and Hunsicker was ordered to deal with the trading side with Toronto. McLane actually made strides to make the deal with Clemens, but by this time Toronto knew they had Houston cornered and asked for three players, two of which were young prospects Scott Elarton and Richard Hidalgo. The deal fell through when New York stepped in and offered three of their own players to Toronto.

So, given what you just said, here is a prime example of the strength of character of the same GM you laud, but in *not* making a deal happen. Ironic, isn’t it.

Andrew>> “Whatever his faults may have been before, Hidalgo looks to be the most motivated guy on the roster now. Lane got rewarded for having a crappy season.”

I think the reason TimPup made that remark is that Lane *is* on the roster, while Hidalgo is an NRI with a minor league deal. But I don’t doubt that RH might be the most motivated guy in training camp, even though Lane *should* be.

I’m too jaded to think the world can be perfect, but here’s my wish list:

1. Clemens turns down the Yankees at the last minute to sign with the Astros, and starts pitching in the majors by June 1.

2. Biggio goes out with a .265 season where he hits 15-20 HRs and knocks in 65-75 RBIs. Oh, and he takes the months of July and August off on the road so that he’s still fresh for our playoff run.

3. Jennings signs a four-year deal, then goes out and proves that he was worth it.

4. Ausmus becomes the personal catcher to Clemens and the young guy who is not Chris Sampson, and Giminez or Quintero gets the other starts, batting over .265 for the season.

5. No major injuries.

6. We win the division with a week or more left, so we can take our time and set up our rotation for the playoffs.

Steven,

Good points on Willy. But I think we’ll miss his defense less once Burke gets used to the position. Remember that Willy — a career outfielder — was horrible in center at the start of his ML career. Burke will get better. Not up to Willy’s standards, but better.

H,

You called it on Jimerson. He Ks enough to make Soriano look like a contact hitter. If I never see him in an Astros uniform again it’ll be too soon.

And, yes, Lane will be dealt for a couple of minor leaguers.

As for the national media guys (a sore spot with me, too), Perry’s article (for a change) didn’t bug me so much. Basically he’s saying that if almost everything goes right for the Cubs, then they’ve got a chance to contend.

But those “ifs” include things like Prior pitching an effective 200 innings, Soriano not batting lead-off, no one offensively having an off year, Lilly keeping the ball in the park (good luck there), no drop off for Zambrano.

In other words, $300 million has only bought a glimmer of hope on the North Side.

The fact that he almost summarily dismisses the Cardinals is what I liked about his article. Though his jab at Houston was a little lame. Yeah, Pettitte’s gone, but at this point I’d rather have Jennings anyway. And Rocket hasn’t gone anywhere yet, and even if he has, I can’t think of a team that has as many guys ready to break out in the rotation as Houston. Albers, Sampson, Nieve — and the good report on his arm — all look ready for prime time.

Donovan’s column only bugs me because he’s doing what the national media guys (and Perry’s column does this too) always do: Let’s give a sound-bite opinion rather than take the time to research a real opinion and really discuss a topic.

When people talk about our offense, none of the national media guys talk about Loretta. No one talks about our deep bullpen. And they all seem to think losing Pettitte is a crime, when I think we got rid of him at just the right time (like Purpura was channelling the Braves’ brain trust for a moment).

Oh, and about Purpura’s comments on Lane … he’s just saying something nice to the press on the contract signing day. It’s unadulterated PR and nothing else. I’m sure (I’d hope) the real, behind-closed-doors message to Lane was something like, “This is make or break time, and we need to see it out of the gate this spring, or you’re gone.”

And I thought the problem with Rose is that he admitted to betting on baseball, but didn’t admit to betting on Reds games. I could be wrong.

- Biggio’s last hurrah is one we are all proud of (while I don’t think he will have a mjor improvement, I would bet he hits .275ish with 20 HR and 70 RBI, 90+ runs scored.

- Jennings signs an extension in ST

- Patton lights up AAA in 2007

- We find a sleeper 3B somewhere that can go to Corpus and find himself (even if he’s already in the Astros organization).

- Ausmus hits all year like he did last April

- Wandy finally finds the control he needs for 6+ innings per start.

- Salamida dominates the Texas League like he did SS NY-Penn

- None of the Astros starters have to spend anytime on the DL in 2007

I don’t think those are asking too much (‘cept maybe the Ausmus one).

Other points -

> Rose’s apology wasn’t official, (with the backing of MLB) – that still needs to happen, but I don’t want to see him manage anywhere, just get into the HOF as he deserves.

> If the lack of a closer becomes a major issue with the RedSox, can’t you see Piniero going into the rotation and Papelbon going back to that role?

> National media BB pundents – grain of salt! Even with Rosenthal. There are guys that work for mlb.com that are excellent (Molony), but most of the “big names” are just filling web space and newsprint and airtime with BS that “feels right” but has no substance behind it. Perry’s article was so that he can go on record as having said that the Cubs wouldn’t win the NLC despite the $300 million they have shelled out BEFORE resigning Zam (insane what people are allowed to do just to try to keep their jobs) – the reference to the NLC being week is his way of kissing the Mets you know what.

> Since the past SIX years have proven that pitching wins championships, how anyone can think that the Cardinals are set to stay on top or that the Yankees are better than 8 games behind the RedSox is not supportable. The idea that the NLE will be better than the NLC is ludicris – Mets – weaker, Braves – will repeat last year even though the bullpen is better, Phillies – are much better – have to be the front runner, Marlins – can you say sophmore jinx, Nationals – wouldn’t win the PCL. The NLW looks like there will be 3 dominent teams – LAD, SD, and ARZ – but that is before they actually play the games.

> The depth of the Astros bullpen – huge plus, if we need something to get over the hump in August, this is where you’d find the trade bait. We will have at least three guys at RR that could be in anyone else’s ML bullpen.

> Prediction – if it looks like Lane will be passed by Hidalgo for the 4th/5th OF spot, he will be traded in the spring – not go to RR.

And who ever said that about Jimerson (Mike P) – that goes from the realm of perfect world to impossible dreaming – he is a nice guy and all, but he is a career AAA player – not a major leagurer (see the K stats!)

Maybe I spoke too soon on the similarity scores for Ensberg vs. Tatis. Ensberg doesn’t appear among the most similar to Tatis (i.e., many players are more similar to him than Ensberg) but Tatis does appear on the list of players similar to Ensberg at age 30. The most similar player to Ensberg at that age is Chet Laabs, who played in the 1930′s and 40′s, followed by Russ Davis, Tatis, Phil Nevin, Chris Sabo, and Sean Berry. Interesting that Sean Berry, Astros hitting coach, is on the list. What can you get from this?..not much, but it is fun to look at.

By the way, I agree with the point about everyone calling the NL Central “weak”…the division’s champ reached the ultimate goal, World Series Champion, making them the best team in baseball. Give the division some respect for that…as well as the fact that a NL Central team has reached the World Series three years running.

**Hunsicker – I think he was one of the best GMs ever; always seemed to be a step ahead. I am not crazy about Timpup yet, but I think that’s because Drayton is really in control and micromanages him. Tim is putting up with it; Gerry eventually had enough and quit. I think Tim knowing the minor league guys will be a big advantage if he doesn’t factor his emotions into his decisions.

**Drayton/Tim/Phil get a copy of the comments posted here and act accordingly? Nooooo… that would be scary. If I were them I’d be curious, but you can never please everyone so why try?

**DH. Yes, it lets aging stars remain as players, but I think it affects strategy and I’m old school that way – dump it.

**Roger Clemens – well, I think even the Yankee fans feel the same. I’d sette for knowing either one – that he’s playing or not…or that the Astros are in or out of the running (regardless of his retirement decision).

• Costas/Boras/Rose…I’ve stated the Costas and Boras comments many times here. Rose *has* admitted betting on baseball but so many in the sport blame him for Giamatti’s death that he’s blackballed forever.

**Doubleheaders – yes, and without charging twice (day/night doubleheaders SUCK). But it will never happen.

**Comeback players – with this kind of jack being thrown around, who wouldn’t? I can’t believe Mitch Melusky hasn’t shown up in camp trying for the backup catcher spot.

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What would make it perfect for me?

* Players of today donate 5% of their salary to a health and welfare fund for baseball players from 25 years ago or more (the time frame rolls each year) who are in need. You’d probably have to do this for 10 years before you hit the ca-ching 90s and could stop.

Bud Selig publicly apologizes to the family of Buck O’Neil for not stepping in and giving baseball’s greatest ambassador entry into the Hall of Fame while he was alive. Too little too late (Selig’s legacy, no?) but needs to be done anyway.

Being able to watch my favorite team on TV (I’m in New York) and actually see some of the players get the credit they deserve. Having to listen to Cub, Met and Brave announcers is torture. The only way I get to see the Astros is when they play these three superstation teams (that’s IF the game is even aired – talk about a lack of respect!)

An Astros World Series in my lifetime.

Bags and Biggio inducted to the HOF together.

Oswalt getting a Cy Young Award (screwed again last year). Or two.

My biggest wish can never come true. That statistics – the heart and soul of the game – would have some meaning. But between smaller parks, designated hitters, drugs, technology, domed stadiums, Astroturf and other changes to the game, they simply CAN NOT and WILL NOT ever be able to be measured accurately. For someone to look back years from now and think that Frank Howard and Harmon Killebrew were not as big of a power threat as a juiced up middle infielder hitting a juiced up baseball in a bandbox is a crime.

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Hmmm. Paid by the word, eh? I’ll bring that up in my next meeting with the Chronicle powers-that-be. –Chip

To answer your question about Ensberg and Tatis, I took the easy way out: I reviewed “similar players” at baseballreference.com. Ensberg does not appear on any of the similarity scores for Tatis. Most similar players to Tatis: Crede, Hinske, Blalock, Feliz, Blake. Tatis peaked at an early age (23-25).

Willy is bound for what? Greatness? Huh? Trading Willy was the best thing this club did this offseason, we couldn’t have another season with Tavares, Ausmus, and Everett in the lineup supplemented by Biggio and Ensberg. Not even Lee and Berkman can save that, they only get two ab’s every nine. Please go back and look at the numbers before you say Tavares was bound for greatness, they are strikingly similar to Chucky Carr and Gerald Young to say that, no where near a Ricky Henderson. He will NEVER have a OBP anywhere near .350, much less .400 that would be required to be great. He has NO power, probably being the single most powerless player in the entire major leagues. He doesn’t steal bases nearly as effecient as someone with his speed should. The only thing that is underrated about Willy is his defensive abilities, that is what we will miss. He made 88% of plays in centerfield last year as opposed to 74% for Burke, that is a big difference. But something had to give somewhere. I wish it had been Ausmus instead of Willy, but frankly a leadoff hitter with a .332 OBP, a guy who is among the fastest in league and still only had 30 something steals with double digit caught stealings, with absolutely NO pop, and had to have a 30 game hitting streak to get his average UP to .270 is not my idea of a consistent day in day out leadoff guy. Give me Burke in the leadoff role, he will hit better, get on base more, and have more power. Bound for greatness, are you sure? Yes, in the same way that Chuck Carr was, Gerald Young, Vince Coleman (that is the best comparison, outside the steals Coleman was VASTLY overrated), Scott Podsednik, Juan Pierre, the list goes on and on, speed guys with no power are only destined for short flashes with no consistency, come on pull out some stats and prove me wrong.

Definitely elminate the DH. I think they should extend the All-Star break too, so we don’t have to worry about “well he’s the best pitcher in the league but he pitched on sunday, so he can’t go.” I’m sure the players wouldn’t mind an extra day or two off.

Regarding cnnsi, foxsports, etc. I’m not sure I understand the logic that the NL Central is the weakest in baseball. Didn’t its champion beat all the other champions? Shouldn’t this be measured objectively by intradivision records, not just by checking boxscores on your laptop from the Yankee Stadium press box?

I’m pretty sure Lidge for Beckett is a pipe dream, but it would be sweet.

1. Lidge for Beckett is a good move. When you have Wheeler, why do you need Lidge? And Wheeler is cheaper, so why not save Uncle Drayton about $3-large per year? We don’t need that many outstanding hosses in the bullpen.

2. You guys are dreaming if you think Biggio is going to show major improvement this year. Actually, Biggio will get worse in 2007 due to age. Hopefully Garner will have the guts to bench him early in the season and Loretta can play and generate production at 2nd.

3. Yep. We could have used an upgrade at catcher. I wanted former Astro Gregg Zahn, a free agent who signed a 2-year deal for only $5 million or so.

4. Purpura ain’t no Hunsicker. These days too often we hear, “Drayton won’t do that.” Gerry would get the deals done and had the strength of character to make things happen. It’s been widely reported that we really blew it with the Jason Jennings trade (gave up too much) and fumbled the chance for Jon Garland under Timmy P’s watch. The Huff deal was bad and Preston Wilson was a horrible experiment. I was real disappointed to see Russ Springer dropped in the grease – a bad move that cost us a solid vet. Getting Loretta was the smartest thing Purpura has done — although the posters on this blog had frequently suggested it in the weeks prior to the signing. So Timmy is not that hot really. We were desperate for hitting prior to the trading deadline and Tim came up empty-handed, basically and cost us a playoff experience.

5. Trading Willy T was dumb. He is young and still improving. WIlly is bound for greatness.

I looked at the numbers for Tatis, and aside from his one good season, I don’t see much similarity between his numbers and Ensberg’s. Even when Ensberg has been “bad”, he hasn’t been as bad as Tatis. I’d be interested to see what you see, though, Chip.

Perry and Donovan have made some stupid comments. If you’re a sportswriter and you’re stuck with writing an article about the NL Central, why on God’s green earth would you say the Cubs are in the best position to win the division? If said sportswriter is going to handicap a division, wouldn’t sucking up to the Cards make more sense? I think it would.

None of that changes the fact that the Astros are in the best position to win the NL Central. Heck, as long as Sampson starts in the #4 slot (or fifth after Wandy, whatever), we’ll be fine.

“He’s probably one of the most motivated if not the most motivated player on the club.”

Based on what I’ve read, this just sounds stupid. But since it’s Timmy P. that said it, I’m not particularly surprised. Fact is, Jason Lane wasn’t very motivated to go to Venezuela, considering his late arrival, and he performed like a warmed-over sack of manure while there. Richard Hidalgo owned Lane in Venezuela. And he was there early, which makes him look more motivated.

Whatever his faults may have been before, Hidalgo looks to be the most motivated guy on the roster now. Lane got rewarded for having a crappy season.

The Red Sox bullpen is a mess. And not having Papelbon as closer will hurt them, no matter how the rest of those guys do. The rest of those guys don’t happen to be very good, either.

In my perfect world: people give credit to the Astros for being a good team when they play well. Around the country, not just TX. Lance Berkman gets as much press as A-Rod and other top sluggers. Carlos Lee hits 50 HR’s every year he’s in an Astros uniform, and nobody rips him for being chubby.

The Astros tried to get more pop in the lineup by signing outfielder Carlos Lee, but they’re still stuck with good guy/bad bat Brad Ausmus behind the plate.

So let me get this straight, John Donovan, a baseball sportswriter for CNNSI thinks that Brad Ausmus, the #8 hitter in the lineup is the question mark for Houston in 2007?

If that is so, then Houston has absolutley no problems facing them in 2007!

Play Ball!!!

(You would’ve thought he would’ve gone for the #4 and #5 starter in the rotation being unsettled, but then again, he’s a sportswriter trying to be cute. A malady that has struck the sportswriting community lately… entertain, not inform!)

Chip, you and I are of like minds on the need for ONE rulebook for MLB. I would contend further that, as with any negotiation where there are polarized views at either end of the table, there is a middle ground that would allow both fans of AL ball and NL ball to meet for that one rulebook… it’s not necessary for one to give up their desire for (a) more offense, or (b) more managerial strategy. When one reduces it down to “what do both sides ACTUALLY want to get out of this,” it becomes much easier to work out an alternative where both sides get SOME satisfaction.

“Jeff Bagwell’s shoulder wouldn’t have quit on him and Craig Biggio could still hit that slider that breaks a foot off the plate. It’s difficult watching good guys lose their abilities.”

Chip, you’re so right about Bagwell, but don’t count Biggio out this year. Many believe he’s only here to get his 3,000th hit and then sit, but I have a gut feeling Craig is going to have a good year, hitting around .280 with 25 bombs and will also be a very positive presence on this year’s club. He may even steal a few bases again! After all, he has to be hearing the whispers, and to someone as proud as Biggio I think he’ll find a way. Wouldn’t it be awesome to see the ‘Stros in the World Series again, with Biggio leading the way the same year he get’s his 3,000th hit? It may be wishfull thinking, but then again…

Now I know why I stopped reading CNNSI’s website along with Fox Sports and the Evil Sports Propaganda Network. They are all beholden to the Yankees and Red Sox! Dayn Perry drinks Cardinal Koolaid and has always hated the Stros. The only decent mainstream website is CBS’ Sportsline.

CNNSI’s bias really shows when they spout out garbage such as this:

• The Astros tried to get more pop in the lineup by signing outfielder Carlos Lee, but they’re still stuck with good guy/bad bat Brad Ausmus behind the plate.

First of all, I seriously doubt that Ausmus gets as many plate appearances as he did in 2006. Second of all, there’s no mention of the Astros bullpen or pitching staff–does that mean they are admitting it is the best bullpen in the NLC and that the rotation may be able to go toe to toe with any in the NLC to include the Brewers?

Then you get to see this on the 2nd page…

• The Yankees, after the top three, have a rocky rotation (pre-Clemens).

I don’t recall Randy Hendricks or Roger Clemens going on record with John Donovan telling him that Roger is going to be a Yankee in 2007…to the contrary, Hendricks made it a point to let the Yankee lovers in the media know that Houston and Boston didn’t have to resort to having a member of the team give up #22 (21 in Boston’s case)….