By Mustafa Saadoun for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Tribal disputes flare in southern Iraq over water scarcity

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi gave instructions on Feb. 11 to stop the encroachment upon water quotas and increase the water share to Al-Mejar district in Maysan province in southern Iraq.

Abadi’s instructions came days after tribal conflicts in Iraq’s southern provinces broke out over agricultural land water quotas, prompting activists in the province to launch a campaign titled Save the Tigris in a bid to end the water crisis. There are already conflicts plaguing those provinces — especially Basra, where water issues between the southern tribes have already escalated into armed conflicts.

Hassanein al-Munshid, a civil activist in a local campaign in Maysan province working to end the water crisis, told Al-Monitor, “Tribal conflicts are intensifying in the province because of the water crisis, which might lead to additional fighting.”

He added, “There is a tribal sheikh in the northern areas of Maysan province controlling the water flow of the Tigris River to irrigate his farms. There are top officials who are aware of his acts of encroachment, but the government cannot do anything about it.”

For security reasons, Munshid did not name the sheikh.

The Iraqi government is doing its best to face the drought that hit the southern provinces due to the lack of water flowing from Turkey, which is the source of the Euphrates River. Most areas of the south and the middle Euphrates depend on the water flowing from the Euphrates.

Majid al-Gharabi, a sheikh in Diwani province, told Al-Monitor, “The reason behind the tribal differences over water is that some clans are diverting the flow of water to prevent it from reaching the farms of other tribes.”

On Jan. 21, Iraqi Minister of Water Resources Hasan al-Janabi wrote on his Facebook page that “Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in front of Abadi that Turkey is committed to postponing the filling of the Ilisu Dam and that the Turkish president is committed [to not harming] Iraq. We definitely have specific demands we seek to achieve peacefully and diplomatically in this regard.”

In an interview published by Foreign Policy Concepts on Jan. 7, the Iraqi minister said the country’s water scarcity is intensified by excessive control measures in the upper reaches of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Of note, 70% of the water that flows into Iraq comes from outside of Iraq’s borders, and this issue — just like any other — affects and is affected by politics, so Turkey’s construction of the Ilisu Dam faced strong Iraqi objections given the risks of drought it entails for Mesopotamia.

In the province of Dhi Qar alone, 20 clan clashes erupted recently due to water scarcity, according to Mayor Hussein Ali Raddad of the Islah district, who also confirmed that the local government in the province failed to reach any solutions regarding the issue.

Ali Raddad told Al-Monitor, “The crisis we are facing now lies in the tribal conflicts that sometimes escalate into violence.”

Iraqi officials say the reason behind the water crisis in the country is that not enough water is flowing into Iraq from Turkey, warning of a looming “disaster” in the coming months.

Meanwhile, a number of citizens blame the Iraqi government for the tribal conflicts erupting in the country, saying the government is incapable of monitoring the distribution of water quotas to farmers. Some tribes are not getting their share of the water while others are getting more than their specified quota, citizens told Radio Nawa.

Water is not sufficiently flowing into farms from the main sources in their provinces, worsening the issues between tribes.

The water crisis may serve as the impetus for new demonstrations in Iraq, specifically in the southern regions where some tribes warned the Iraqi government of a “war” that may erupt in the absence of appropriate measures to resolve the water crisis.

In Maysan province, water shortages are no less serious than those in Dhi Qar, Samawah and Wasit. The capital city of Maysan, Amarah, may suffer a major disaster as a result of drought, as waves of displacement will ensue, the marshes will dry out, the livestock will die and the agriculture industry will be doomed, officials say.

This is not the first time that armed conflicts have erupted between the tribes of southern Iraq over water. Three years ago, the dispute escalated between the tribes of the provinces of Muthanna and Diwaniyah for the same reason.

Parts of southern Iraq are going through a phase no less serious than the situation in the Sunni areas of Anbar, Salahuddin and Ninevah. Water is the dwindling lifeblood that could lead to long-term tribal fighting in those areas.

Despite its attempts, the Iraqi government is seemingly unable to control the tribal differences over water in the areas of southern Iraq, especially considering that there are tribes and families controlling the water flow and preventing it from reaching other farms and areas.

The Iraqi government may have to resort to a military option to end inter-clan disputes over water and force tribes to divide water quotas. Otherwise, some farms will be deprived of their quotas.

On Feb. 13, coalition military forces conducted four strikes consisting of six engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes suppressed two ISIS maneuver elements and destroyed a fighting position, a heavy machine gun and an artillery system.

— Near Abu Kamal, eight strikes engaged six ISIS tactical units and destroyed two command and control centers, a fighting position, an ISIS-held building, a weapons cache, an ISIS motorcycle and a mortar tube.

— Near Dayr Az Zawr, a strike engaged two tactical units of hostile forces and destroyed a tank.

On Feb. 9, coalition military forces conducted three strikes consisting of seven engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes engaged three ISIS tactical units and damaged an ISIS-held building.

Additional Strikes in Syria

On Feb. 8, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of one engagement near Raqqa, engaging an ISIS tactical unit.

On Jan. 31, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of one engagement near Shadaddi, destroying an ISIS rocket fighting position.

Strikes in Iraq

On Feb. 15, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of two engagements against ISIS targets near Rutbah. The strike destroyed an ISIS weapons cache.

On Feb. 14, coalition military forces conducted two strikes consisting of three engagements against ISIS targets near Beiji. The strikes engaged an ISIS tactical unit and destroyed an ISIS facility.

There were no reported strikes in Iraq on Feb. 12-13.

On Feb. 11, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of one engagement against ISIS targets near Tal Afar. The strike engaged an ISIS tactical unit and destroyed an ISIS tunnel.

There were no reported strikes in Iraq on Feb. 9-10.

Additional Strikes in Iraq

On Jan. 27, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of one engagement in support of an Iraqi raid on a high-value ISIS leader.

Part of Operation Inherent Resolve

These strikes were conducted as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, the operation to destroy ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The destruction of ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria also further limits the group’s ability to project terror and conduct external operations throughout the region and the rest of the world, task force officials said.

A strike, as defined by the coalition, refers to one or more kinetic engagements that occur in roughly the same geographic location to produce a single or cumulative effect.

For example, task force officials explained, a single aircraft delivering a single weapon against a lone ISIS vehicle is one strike, but so is multiple aircraft delivering dozens of weapons against a group of ISIS-held buildings and weapon systems in a compound, having the cumulative effect of making that facility harder or impossible to use. Strike assessments are based on initial reports and may be refined, officials said.

The task force does not report the number or type of aircraft employed in a strike, the number of munitions dropped in each strike, or the number of individual munition impact points against a target.

Significant progress in the fight to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has resulted in a shift in focus to sustaining military gains in Iraq to ensure a lasting defeat of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria terrorists, The commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command told Pentagon reporters today.

An Air Force C-17 Globemaster III transport jet assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron sits on the ramp at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, Jan. 24, 2018. The C-17 is capable of rapid strategic delivery of troops and all types of cargo to bases throughout the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt Gregory Brook

Speaking via teleconference from the Combined Air Operations Center at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian said the Feb. 1 standup of a coalition aviation advisory and training team is an example of the transition.

The coalition team of airmen will help the Iraqis build a capable, affordable, professional and sustainable aviation enterprise, he explained. And while the standup of the team does not signal an increase in the U.S.-led coalition’s presence in Iraq, the CAAT will bridge the work toward standing up an air expeditionary wing that will take over that mission, he said.

Preventing ISIS Resurgence

The coalition’s train, advise and assist efforts to build a lasting Iraqi aviation enterprise will not be tied to a timeline, but instead will be conditions-based, proportional to the needs, and in coordination with partners in the Iraq government, Harrigian said.

“As we transition our focus in [Operation Inherent Resolve] to sustain our military gains, let me be clear that we will retain the necessary amount of air power to prevent a resurgence of ISIS,” he emphasized.

Harrigian said the progress to defeat ISIS has allowed the United States to realign some of its deployed combat air power and personnel to Afghanistan, including A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft, MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aircraft and HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopters.

“These aircraft will provide increased air support to the South Asia strategy, as well as ongoing counterterrorism efforts in Afghan-led operations,” the commander said. “This plus-up in air power is also producing tangible results as part of a deliberate air campaign that we kicked off in late November to decimate the Taliban’s primary revenue source — narcotics production.”

Goal: Choke Off Taliban

The goal is to choke off the Taliban’s ability to pay for its deadly attacks, such as those in Kabul recently, he noted.

Harrigian said the campaign to stop the Taliban’s resource flow will take time and that it will not align with the traditional fighting season in Afghanistan.

“Instead, [the campaign] will be relentless and persistent, as demonstrated by the 321 precision munitions we released this January against Taliban targets in the dead of winter, a time they typically rest and recuperate,” he said.

Such pressure will persist until the Taliban reconcile or die, Harrigian said. “We are already seeing positive reflections from our intelligence that the Taliban are not enjoying their typical winter break.”

U.S. Air Forces Central Command, in coordination with Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, stood up a Coalition Aviation Advisory and Training Team in Iraq Feb. 1.

This standup will help to develop an Iraqi aviation enterprise capable of safeguarding the country from ISIS and its affiliates.

The CAATT, in partnership with the Office of Security Cooperation-Iraq, will enhance the aviation capabilities of the ISF and train, advise and assist the Iraqi Army Aviation Command, Iraqi Air Defense Command and the Iraqi Air Force.

“This Coalition team of airmen will build upon our Iraqi partner’s combat-proven capabilities to ensure a capable, affordable, professional, and sustainable Iraqi Aviation Enterprise,” said Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, U.S. Air Forces Central Command commander. “Together with our Iraqi Security Forces partners, we will ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS in Iraq.”

The standup of this unit does not indicate an increase in the overall number of troops deployed to Iraq. The CAATT is comprised of U.S. and Coalition airmen from multiple specialties and is specifically designed to leverage existing resources and Coalition partner capabilities.

Following the country’s liberation from ISIS’ physical presence, the Coalition is transitioning to a more training-focused and building-partner-capacity role – decreasing overall Coalition air support as the Iraqi Air Force assumes air missions, duties and responsibilities necessary to ensure a lasting defeat of ISIS.

Enabled by accelerated successes following the liberation of Mosul, the coalition will shift its focus in Iraq from enabling combat operations to sustaining military gains against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve officials announced today.

“The coalition will tailor our forces in consultation with our Iraqi partners in order to ensure the lasting defeat of [ISIS],” said CJTF-OIR director of operations, Army Brig. Gen. Jonathan Braga.

As a result of the successful operations by the coalition and its partners, ISIS has lost about 98 percent of the territory it once held in Iraq and Syria. However, coalition commanders have noted ISIS is likely to transition back into an insurgency. ISIS still retains the ability to carry out lethal attacks and poses a potent threat to civilians and to the stability of the region.

“We’re clear the enemy is still capable of offensive action and retains the ability to plan and inspire attacks worldwide,” Braga said. “Although OIR’s force composition may change over time to ensure we have the best forces on hand for the task, we will retain an appropriate amount of capabilities as well as an advisory presence to continue training, advising and equipping our partners in the continued fight against [ISIS], all with the approval of the government of Iraq.

“Our enduring presence as invited guests in Iraq will shift to focus more on policing, border control and military capacity building. We will sustain the successful momentum and enhance the capacities of the Iraqi security forces in pursuing [ISIS], now and in the future,” Braga said.

Preventing ISIS’ Return

To prevent the conditions under which ISIS can re-emerge, coalition-partnered military operations will enable diplomatic and economic efforts by the international community that will capitalize on the military gains of the past year. “Military success has bought time, space and security for non-military stabilization efforts to help the people of Iraq, and we look to facilitate the return of normalcy for Iraqis,” Braga said.

Continued coalition presence in Iraq will be conditions-based, proportional to the need and in coordination with the government of Iraq.

“We will redouble our efforts to develop the Iraqi security forces, ensuring they have the necessary capability and expertise to meet current and future security threats,” said British Army Maj. Gen. Felix Gedney, OIR’s deputy commander for strategy and support. “We remain committed to working with our Iraqi partners.”

Although the coalition will not provide specifics on individual nations’ plans and contributions, it asserts 2018 will be a critical year in adjusting coalition forces as it consolidates gains against [ISIS] and brings hope for a better future to the Iraqi people.

In addition, officials reported details of the most recent strikes, noting that assessments of results are based on initial reports.

Strikes in Syria

Yesterday in Syria, coalition military forces conducted six strikes consisting of 12 engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes engaged three ISIS tactical units and destroyed two ISIS supply routes, four fighting positions, a front-end loader, a road grader and an ISIS line of communication.

On Jan. 24, coalition military forces conducted 11 strikes consisting of 15 engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes engaged six ISIS tactical units and destroyed a front-end loader, two ISIS supply routes, four fighting positions and an ISIS line of communication.

On Jan. 23, coalition military forces conducted six strikes consisting of 10 engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes engaged an ISIS tactical unit and destroyed three pieces of ISIS construction equipment, three fighting positions and two ISIS supply routes.

On Jan. 22, coalition military forces conducted four strikes consisting of seven engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes engaged four ISIS tactical units and destroyed two ISIS supply routes, a command-and-control center and an ISIS-held building.

On Jan. 19, coalition military forces conducted seven strikes consisting of 13 engagements against ISIS targets near Abu Kamal. The strikes destroyed two ISIS supply routes, three ISIS equipment vehicles, six fighting positions, two ISIS vehicles and a command-and-control center.

Strikes in Iraq

There were no reported strikes in Iraq Jan. 23-25.

On Jan. 22, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of one engagement against ISIS targets near Qara Tapa. The strike destroyed an ISIS weapons cache.

On Jan. 21, coalition military forces conducted two strikes consisting of three engagements against ISIS targets:

— Near Hawija, a strike engaged an ISIS tactical unit and destroyed a fighting position and an ISIS command-and-control center.

— Near Rutbah, a strike destroyed two ISIS tactical vehicles.

On Jan. 20, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of one engagement against ISIS targets near Qayyarah. The strike engaged an ISIS tactical unit.

There were no reported strikes in Iraq on Jan. 19.

Part of Operation Inherent Resolve

These strikes were conducted as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, the operation to destroy ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The destruction of ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria also further limits the group’s ability to project terror and conduct external operations throughout the region and the rest of the world, task force officials said.

Ground-based artillery fired in counterfire or in fire support to maneuver roles is not classified as a strike, they added. A strike, as defined by the coalition, refers to one or more kinetic engagements that occur in roughly the same geographic location to produce a single or cumulative effect.

For example, task force officials explained, a single aircraft delivering a single weapon against a lone ISIS vehicle is one strike, but so is multiple aircraft delivering dozens of weapons against a group of ISIS-held buildings and weapon systems in a compound, having the cumulative effect of making that facility harder or impossible to use. Strike assessments are based on initial reports and may be refined, officials said.

The task force does not report the number or type of aircraft employed in a strike, the number of munitions dropped in each strike, or the number of individual munition impact points against a target.

The physical caliphate of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is in pieces and operations against ISIS [Islamic State group, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh] continue in the Euphrates River valley, but the ISIS “brand” remains to be defeated, Pentagon officials said on Thursday.

Remnants of the terror group continue to operate in Iraq, but improved Iraqi security forces are able to manage that threat, chief Pentagon spokesperson Dana W. White and Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. told reporters during the weekly Pentagon briefing. McKenzie is the director of the Joint Staff.

And, McKenzie denied Russian claims that the United States was responsible for drone attacks on Russian airfields in Syria. “I can tell you unequivocally that the United States was not involved in any way with the drone attack on the Russian base at any time,” he said.

ISIS ‘Broken, Fractured’

“[The physical caliphate] has been broken and fractured, but the work still continues,” White said. “We are going to continue our operations because we ultimately have to ensure we have conditions on the ground that ISIS can never re-emerge.”

McKenzie said trends against the remnants of the physical caliphate in the Middle Euphrates River valley are good. “We seem to be having success there with our allies and partners, but … I wouldn’t put a timeline on that,” he said. “There is also an enduring global element to it — the enfranchisement of ISIS. Even though they failed as a caliphate, there are global manifestations of their brand that we see pop-up. I think there is plenty for the global coalition to do in the year ahead, aside from the physical end of the caliphate in the Euphrates River valley.

Coalition precision strikes in Syria killed 11 ISIS terrorists, as the Syrian Democratic Forces continued clearance operations along the eastern Euphrates River, Manning said. The SDF advanced about a half mile in the wake of heavy ISIS resistance, he reported.

Manning said coalition military forces conducted nine strikes on Jan. 7 in Syria, consisting of 14 engagements against ISIS targets.

U.S. and coalition military forces continued to attack the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria between Dec. 29, 2017, and yesterday, conducting 58 strikes consisting of 84 engagements, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve officials reported on Friday.

Officials reported details of the most recent strikes, noting that assessments of results are based on initial reports.

Strikes in Syria

On Jan. 4, near Abu Kamal in Syria, coalition military forces conducted four strikes consisting of five engagements against ISIS target, destroying an ISIS supply route, a fighting position and a vehicle-borne bomb.

On Jan. 3, near Abu Kamal, coalition military forces conducted nine strikes consisting of 12 engagements against ISIS targets, destroying two ISIS lines of communication, a heavy weapon, four fighting positions, an ISIS vehicle, a logistics center and an ISIS supply route.

On Jan. 2, near Abu Kamal, coalition military forces conducted nine strikes consisting of 10 engagements against ISIS targets, destroying an ISIS supply route, an indirect fire weapon, two fighting positions, two heavy machine guns, two unmanned aerial vehicles and an ISIS line of communication.

On Jan. 1, near Abu Kamal, coalition military forces conducted four strikes consisting of six engagements against ISIS targets, destroying an ISIS command-and-control center, two fighting positions, an ISIS vehicle, two heavy machine guns and three ISIS tunnel entrances.

On Dec. 31, near Beiji, coalition military forces conducted a strike consisting of four engagements against ISIS targets, destroying an ISIS fighting position.

On Dec. 30, coalition military forces conducted three strikes consisting of seven engagements against ISIS targets:

Near Beiji, a strike engaged an ISIS tactical unit and destroyed an ISIS tunnel system.

Near Mosul, two strikes engaged an ISIS tactical unit and destroyed five ISIS fighting positions, two tunnel entrances and a weapons cache.

There were no reported strikes conducted in Iraq Dec. 29, 2017.

Part of Operation Inherent Resolve

These strikes were conducted as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, the operation to destroy ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The destruction of ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria also further limits the group’s ability to project terror and conduct external operations throughout the region and the rest of the world, task force officials said.

Ground-based artillery fired in counterfire or in fire support to maneuver roles is not classified as a strike, they added. A strike, as defined by the coalition, refers to one or more kinetic engagements that occur in roughly the same geographic location to produce a single or cumulative effect.

For example, task force officials explained, a single aircraft delivering a single weapon against a lone ISIS vehicle is one strike, but so is multiple aircraft delivering dozens of weapons against a group of ISIS-held buildings and weapon systems in a compound, having the cumulative effect of making that facility harder or impossible to use. Strike assessments are based on initial reports and may be refined, officials said.

The task force does not report the number or type of aircraft employed in a strike, the number of munitions dropped in each strike, or the number of individual munition impact points against a target.

The coalition works by, with and through its Iraqi partners to ensure the lasting defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and prevent its ability to transit borders, officials said.

Border Guard Training Program

The coalition-enabled training is the first part of an ongoing program to train and equip Iraqi border guards, who will secure Iraq’s borders using new, rapidly deployable, self-contained border guard equipment sets, according to officials.

Enhanced border guard capabilities will improve national security and international commerce and travel, officials said.

“Coalition trainers at Besmayah Training Complex are instructing border guard units in the employment of this new system, which is scheduled for distribution along Iraq’s western border during the coming year,” said Army Col. Brian Ellis, CJTF-OIR director of partner force development. “The training focuses not only on operation of the equipment but also on the tenets of community policing, ethical conduct, human rights, first aid, self-defense and explosive hazard awareness.”

The self-contained border guard equipment program represents a multinational effort, with the U.S. allocating more than $300 million to Iraq’s border security efforts, and with members of Spanish Guardia Civil, or Civil Guard, leading the training, according to officials.

Many other coalition forces will be involved in the delivery of the training and rollout of the program throughout the year, officials said. The Iraqi Border Guard Force will control cross-border movement and prevent the passage of terrorists across borders.

Following the liberation of ISIS-occupied areas in Iraq, the coalition is working with Iraqi security forces “to ensure remnants of the terrorist group cannot resurface or enjoy freedom of movement,” Ellis said.