Fingers crossed: The hope for a Ramadan rebound is high in the Middle East

Businesses in the Middle East are betting that Ramadan, the high-grossing annual Muslim month of fasting and reflection, will be able to shake off any dip in spending due to the social unrest seen in parts of the region.

After the Arab world, mainly the oil-rich Gulf, was hit hard by the global financial crisis and local debt woes, its economies began recovering in 2010 until the arrival of the Arab Spring threw into doubt the sustainability of a recovery in countries such as Egypt and Bahrain. Governments have made up for dips in private spending by boosting their own funding of projects and infrastructure.

“Post-Ramadan there is more economic activity. The month instills fresh energy into the system,” said Shaharayar Umar, marketing director at Dubai-based Pan Arab Research Center.

According to PARC, across the Arab World advertising spending generally doubles in Ramadan, with some companies spending up to 78 percent of their annual advertising budget during these 30 days. In 2010, the Middle East’s top five spenders on advertising put down an average of 25 percent of their annual advertising budget in just Ramadan of that year.

During Ramadan, a month-long lifestyle shift that includes shortened working hours and large family gatherings to break the daily fast, spending on food tends to increase because of the lavish meals set out after the fast ends at sunset. The gift-giving Eid holiday that immediately follows Ramadan is also big business, with auto sellers offering discounts and shopping malls launching sales.

Private consumption is a significant driver of economic activity in the Arab world. InSaudi Arabia, consumer spending accounts for around 35 percent of the economy. It is around 73 percent in Egypt, whose unrest-hit economy is expected to see growth of 1 percent in 2011 according to the IMF, its slowest since 1992.

This year, because of the lunar rhythm of the Islamic calendar, Ramadan falls right in the middle of August, usually a slow time across the region, with searing temperatures and holidays. But Ramadan usually encourages people to stay at home, and has been immune to political and commercial cycles.

“Our experience says that no matter where and in which calendar month Ramadan falls, it’s a seasonality by itself,” said Mazen Hayek, official spokesperson for regional television giant MBC Group.

“Is there a Ramadan economy, definitely. In the car business, in the electronic business,