The big story

No doubt, the story for the Warriors will be the health and productivity of their two most important players—point guard Stephen Curry and center Andrew Bogut.

When we last saw the Warriors, they were haplessly limping through the remainder of a god-awful season, with both Bogut, who was acquired in March in a five-player deal, and Curry sidelined with ankle injuries. There were rumblings that the Warriors were throwing in the towel on the season, hoping to lose enough games to be able to keep their lottery pick, which was protected if it landed in the top 7. If not, it was headed to the Utah Jazz. (Golden State, indeed, finished with the league’s seventh-worst record.)

They also boosted one of the biggest shortcomings in recent years, depth. They traded for point guard Jarrett Jack and were lucky to find productive reserve big man Carl Landry on the market late in the offseason. There is a bigger pool of talent in Golden State than at any time in recent memory.

But still, this team has made the playoffs just once since 1994. If that is to change, Curry and Bogut must get healthy and stay healthy. Freed of the influence of the ball-dominating Monta Ellis, who was sent to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Bogut trade, Curry has the opportunity to take over this team, and in his brief career he has answered the biggest question about him coming out of college—he can, indeed be a starting point guard.

Bogut, meanwhile, will immediately boost the Warriors’ horrid defense, but he also must return to the offensive form he showed during the 2009-10 season in Milwaukee, when he averaged 15.9 points before he had a nasty elbow injury late in the season.

The Warriors are good, and probably good enough to be a playoff team in the West. But they still need to catch some breaks along the way.

Keep an eye on …

The Warriors have some interesting possibilities on the wings. As a rookie, Klay Thompson shone once Ellis was dealt, playing the final 28 games as a starter and averaging 18.6 points. He isn’t much of an all-around player, but no matter—as long as he can shoot (41.4 percent on 3s), he will have a spot in the starting five.

In the long run, Golden State would probably like to see Barnes join Thompson on the wing, a young pairing that could mesh nicely with Curry at the point. But a lot of that depends on how good Barnes will be offensively. He has shown a very good jump shot and is solid defensively, but he needs to develop more aspects of his game, especially with Thompson being primarily a shooter. If Barnes winds up being the star some scouts think he can be (and other scouts think he will never be), Golden State’s future will take an even brighter turn.

But the Warriors have themselves covered here, and Barnes won’t have to be thrown into the fire. If Jefferson can bounce back from a sub-par season, he could win the starting job at small forward. If Rush duplicates last year’s solid performance, he will get the job.

Strategy session

Warriors coach Mark Jackson came into his first head coaching gig last year with some fairly lofty talk. He said Golden State would be a playoff team. He said the Warriors would, finally, play some defense.

Neither of those happened, of course. Golden State remained rudderless on the defensive end last year, and the playoffs were never in sight. The Warriors allowed 101.2 points per game, which was 28th in the league, and ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. Sure, there were injuries and there was a major trade, but no matter who was in the lineup, the team couldn’t stop anyone. Which was very much like every year has been for the Warriors.

But Jackson has a couple of things going for him that could turn the defense around. For one, Ellis is no longer around—he spent too much time gambling for steals, breaking off his assignments and allowing easy penetration. Curry and Thompson are not great defenders, but they should be more reliable than Curry-Ellis combination was. And there is Bogut.

Jackson needs to ensure that ballhandlers get funneled toward Bogut, who is a very physical big man and an excellent shot blocker. Jackson’s D will improve simply because of personnel changes, but tweaks in strategy should help, too.

Outside view (from a West scout): “The two guys who will make a big difference for them are Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry. They were under-the-radar moves. Neither one of them is going to do anything fancy, but Landry is a very good offensive player for his size (6-9) and he is going to give you good effort and 10-15 points a night off the bench. Jack has bounced back lately and he has established himself as a good veteran off the bench. He can shoot it, play defense and limit his mistakes. These are the kinds of players who help you win, and the Warriors have not had many of those.”

Inside view (from general manager Bob Myers): “We feel we have given ourselves an opportunity to make the playoffs. That was the goal coming into the offseason. Around here, fans and the media, they want to make you say you’re promising something or forecasting. But I have tried to be cautious and just say, we’d like to compete for a playoff spot. And if you are, then there’s not much separation between teams in that range. Win two more games and you’re a six seed, or lose two and you are the eight seed or you’re out for that matter. But we expect to be in the mix of teams fighting for those spots. I am hoping it breaks right for us, but there are a lot of variables.”

Our view: Myers is right—the Warriors have the talent to be in the top 8 in the West, but they could also get nosed out and finish ninth or 10th. Golden State has been a snakebitten franchise in recent years, and owners Joe Lacob and Peter Guber—who bought the team in 2010—have done their level best to get shake off the bad luck. Bogut is a huge addition for a team that desperately tried to add a big man last season (they barely missed on Tyson Chandler and offered a $43 million deal to DeAndre Jordan, which the Clippers matched), and if he is on the floor for 70-plus games, this should be a playoff year in Oakland.

Projected rotation

At long last, this is a team that should go nine deep. There are youngsters they’d like to play (Charles Jenkins, Jeremy Tyler, Draymond Green, Festus Ezeli) but the difference now is that they don’t have to play them. The Warriors have legit backups at every position.