Reply to post: Re: Don't forget the midterm elections

Re: Don't forget the midterm elections

The senate? I don't know jake, There are only 8 red shirts in play and 22 blue shirts. The only realistic chance is for the blue shirts to grab Arizona and Nevada while defending all the others even the marginal states like Montana. Let's be honest and say that states like Tennessee and California aren't up for grabs. Consider that of the senate seats up in 2018 there is only Nevada that voted blue shirt in the presidential election and has a red shirt senator but there are nine states that have a blue shirt senator and voted red in the presidential race. That said, taking two only gets a tie with Pence as the tie breaker.

What it comes down to is how do the folks in those reversible states feel Trump does over the next two years. If their economic fortunes improve they'll likely give Trump the credit for coming through on his promises. If there is another recession, blue team cleans house but given most of the tossup states in play are already wearing blue it likely won't be enough.