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The big news for both teams in this matchup is that Wisconsin’s massive, freakishly athletic nose tackle Olive Sagapolu — a former high school cheerleader who can do backflips and play the ukulele — has been ruled out of the game with an arm injury. The Nittany Lions have struggled with 3-4 defensive fronts this season, but they caught a break with the 335-pound run stuffer stuck on the sideline. Freshman Bryson Williams will stand in for Sagapolu, but this is a more traditional three-man front, as ends Isaiahh Loudermilk and Kayden Lyles don’t pile up big numbers. But, Penn State is going to have to make their block and get to the second level against this group if it wants to get its running game going. That’s not an easy chore even without Sagapolu.

EDGE: Penn State

QUARTERBACKS/RECEIVERS VS. SECONDARY

The Nittany Lions had significant questions about QB Trace McSorley’s health leading into last week’s game against Michigan, and those same questions exist this week. Be it due to issues with his knee or the clunky brace he had to wear to protect it or simply the speed and tenacity of the Michigan defense, McSorley had his worst statistical game as Penn State’s starting quarterback in that game. Another game like that will secure another loss, and it’s looking like Penn State is going to have to rely on its younger receivers like Pat Freiermuth, K.J. Hamler and Jahan Dotson if it’s going to move the ball through the air. Wisconsin’s secondary, led by senior safety D’Cota Dixon, has allowed just 642 passing yards and two touchdowns, while picking off six passes, in the Badgers’ last four games.

EDGE: Wisconsin

RUNNING BACKS VS. LINEBACKERS

There seems to be a thought that Miles Sanders isn’t getting the ball as much as he should, and that may be the case, given how he started the season. That said, Penn State’s junior running back has just 76 yards on 24 carries over the lasts two games, which indicates the running room has been just as big a problem as the amount of carries. Wisconsin’s two inside linebackers — Ryan Connelly and T.J. Edwards — are among the Big Ten’s best when it comes to stopping the run, and they have combined for 127 tackles through the Badgers’ first nine games. But any thought that the Lions can easily get Sanders going in the passing game should come with some pause. Edwards leads all active linebackers with nine career interceptions, and his 24 passes defended are the most in school history for a linebacker.

EDGE: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin has the ball

OFFENSIVE LINE VS. DEFENSIVE LINE

Big shocker: Wisconsin’s offensive line is really, really good. And it’s really, really big. And somehow, once again, it’s really, really experienced. Four members of the starting offensive line — LG Michael Dieter, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Beau Benzschawel and RT David Edwards — were named to at least one midseason All-America team. Four starters are 6-foot-6 or taller, and all are at least 310 pounds. Wisconsin never seems to rebuild along the offensive line, and Penn State’s defensive front is going to have to hold up better than it did last week against Michigan. The key is whether DTs Kevin Givens and Robert Windsor can occupy a double team often enough to allow linebackers to get one-on-one matchups with the running backs.

EDGE: Wisconsin

KEY TO THE GAME

QUARTERBACKS/RECEIVERS VS. SECONDARY

Few teams are forthcoming with injury information on their players these days, but Wisconsin bucks the trend there. It releases an injury report weekly, and there’s no question the one it released this week has Penn State thinking.

Longtime starting QB Alex Hornibrook, who authored one of the best statistical seasons for a quarterback in school history last season, was listed as questionable with a concussion suffered last week against Rutgers, his second concussion in the last month. If he doesn’t play, sophomore Jack Coan would get the start, coming off a strong relief appearance against the Scarlet Knights.

“We always kind of go about things that we plan for the starters, no different than last week,” head coach James Franklin said. “I would say, though, that in today’s day and age with concussions and things like that, when you know a guy is in a concussion protocol and he’s been in it a couple times this year, I think that’s challenging. I think we’d better be prepared for not only the starter, like we always do, but also the backup.”

Teams that have beaten Wisconsin have done so by making them one-dimensional, even if that simply means keeping the running game in check. Coan, if he plays, isn’t as efficient at this stage of his career as Hornibrook would be. But he has a bigger arm and could potentially push the ball down the field a little bit to a slew of receivers led by junior A.J. Taylor, which could open up the shorter part of the field for sophomore Danny Davis, who has done a good job taking shorter throws and making something happen.

Penn State’s secondary is capable of making the Wisconsin passing game an afterthought, with experienced corners Amani Oruwariye and John Reid taking on a passing game that hasn’t relied on the big play. But it remains to be seen what Coan could do with a week to prepare as the starter. So, he’s a wild card.

EDGE: Penn State

RUNNING BACKS VS. LINEBACKERS

There’s no doubt what Wisconsin wants to do. Hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor. Let him find a hole behind that big offensive line, pick up a few yards and then occasionally break the big run. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Rushing for 2,000 yards this season is not out of the question for Taylor, who is one of the most consistent backs in the nation despite some fumbling issues that have plagued him every now and again. Penn State did a decent job from the linebacker position keeping Michigan’s Karan Higdon bottled up for the most part last week, but he did rip off two big carries that both boosted his numbers and led to Wolverines scores. Big plays are going to matter in this game, and guys like Jan Johnson and Micah Parsons are going to have to work to make sure Taylor is only getting the 3- or 4-yard carries and not the 30- or 40-yarders that Wisconsin has been able to pick up when things are going well.

EDGE: Penn State

Special teams

KICKING GAME

Penn State has run into a stream of really good kicking units, and their return games have struggled to get anything going, for the most part. Wisconsin’s group, while solid, isn’t that dynamic, especially at punter, where the Badgers made a change and now starts Connor Allen over Anthony Lotti, who had been a stalwart for Wisconsin. But while Allen has helped control field position slightly better, he’s averaging just 37 yards per punt. Wisconsin likely isn’t going to beat a team with a late, long field goal, either. Rafael Gaglianone is a familiar name, but he is just 1 for 3 on kicks beyond 40 yards. For Penn State, there’s some optimism that punter Blake Gillikin is pulling out of his doldrums, and kicking at home should be a boon for Jake Pinegar.

EDGE: Penn State

RETURN GAME

Good kicking games have figured out ways to minimize K.J. Hamler’s effect on kickoff returns, but he’ll make opponents pay for a mistake, as he did in a key spot against Iowa. Wisconsin kickoff returner Aron Cruickshank has plenty of potential, but he hasn’t broken a big return this season, averaging less than 20 yards per return. Same goes for the punt returner, Jack Dunn, who has no returns of more than 15 yards this season.

EDGE: Penn State

Prediction

Both teams opened the season ranked in the top-10, and both have lost three of their first nine games to drop out of playoff contention both nationally and in the Big Ten. But this should be considered a must-win game for both teams if they want to contend for a New Year’s Day bowl berth. The Nittany Lions are coming off their worst offensive game in years, but that experience against Michigan should help prepare them for what Wisconsin brings. With the game at home, where Penn State has played better all-around this season, the Nittany Lions are a good bet to rebound, assuming McSorley is healthy enough to be a dual threat. Defensively, the Nittany Lions should be able to minimize the Wisconsin passing game enough to make the running game the primary concern, which would help them prevent some of the bigger plays Taylor is capable of making. If he breaks more than a handful of 20-yard runs, Penn State is in trouble. If they can keep him to minimum gains, the Nittany Lions will win. At the end of the day, the Nittany Lions have a better chance to be balanced on offense, and the defense was good enough against Michigan to think they can put together a better performance. Can’t let Hornibrook/Coan and the receivers beat them, and McSorley has to make some plays with his legs. But Penn State has a chance to outscore Wisconsin in what is looking like a defensive struggle that’s rare for the program in recent years.

Penn State 20, Wisconsin 17

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