THREE STRIKES: Comparing Mass. proposal to other states

As in Massachusetts, a horrific murder was behind the push for a three-strikes law in California.

Richard Allen Davis, a twice-convicted kidnapper, snatched 12-year-old Polly Klaas from a slumber party at her Petaluma home in 1993 and strangled her to death. The case created a public outcry that led to a 1994 ballot initiative creating a three-strikes law requiring a 25-years-to-life sentence for those already convicted of two serious or violent felonies.

"The law was passed in the heat of the moment," said Maggie Filler, a third-year Stanford University law student and member of the school's Three Strikes Project, which counsels defendants facing life sentences. "It was a horrific trauma that the entire state experienced and in the wake of that they passed the three strikes law; it was really a direct response to the tragedy."

The California case had a national impact. According to a report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, 24 states passed three-strikes laws between 1993 and 1995. Massachusetts would become the 27th state if it passes pending legislation.

But while nearly 9,000 are in jail in California for third-strike offenses, few other states have seen a comparable impact from their laws.

A report by the Justice Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C. think-tank that advocates for reduced incarceration, said 11 states had fewer than 20 convictions each in the 10 years after passing three-strikes laws.

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The debate over a Massachusetts three-strikes law has created a numbers contest between supporters and opponents. Estimates of the impact of the legislation on the state's already overcrowded system range from 100 more prisoners a year to fewer than 10 annually.

Predicting the impact of the law hinges on what is considered a "strike," according to Jennifer Walsh, an Azusa Pacific University professor who is an expert on three-strikes laws.

Walsh said California, Georgia and Florida have the most three-strike prisoners because their laws count crimes such as burglary as a strike. Connecticut had a single case in 10 years under a law that only counts violent assault and murder convictions as a strike.

"Think of it in baseball terms - the wider the strike zone, the more strikeouts you'll get," Walsh said. "If you have a pretty generous strike zone that encompasses many different types of offenses, you're going to get more people striking out under that law."

Two-thirds of states that passed three-strikes laws in the mid-1990s have either reduced the strike zone or given judges more discretion in sentencing, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

In 2001, the Louisiana Legislature removed mandatory sentences for some nonviolent offenses and cut many drug sentences in half to save about $60 million, according to a report from the Vera Institute of Justice, an independent organization that studies incarceration issues.

In 2010, South Carolina adopted an omnibus crime bill that increased the number of crimes that qualified as a strike, but also joined at least 10 other states that give judges more discretion in determining when to apply a strike, according to the conference.

Other states that have trimmed back three-strikes laws include Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, and Wisconsin

In November, Californians will vote on a ballot question to require a third strike to be for a serious or violent crime.

Alison Lawrence, a policy specialist with the conference said Massachusetts proposed law would not be unusually harsh, even when compared to states that have relaxed their initial legislation.

"Having violent offenders serve a longer time under a three-strikes policy than nonviolent offenders is similar to many other state laws," she said.

But Filler warns the Massachusetts plan to eliminate parole makes it tougher than California's law.

"The California three-strikes sentence has the opportunity for parole after 25 years, potentially sooner with good time credits," she said.

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