Why Philippines Stands Up to China

The Philippines is hopelessly mismatched against China in pure military terms. But there are historical reasons why it won’t back down in the South China Sea.

Last month, I wrote a column forGlobal Times in which I observed that a dominant Chinese Navy lets China’s leadership deploy unarmed surveillance and law-enforcement vessels as it implements policy in the ongoing stand off at Scarborough Shoal. It can flourish a small, unprovocative seeming stick while holding the big stick – overwhelming naval firepower, and thus the option of escalating – in reserve.

That, I wrote, translates into “virtual coercion and deterrence” vis-à-vis lesser Asian powers. If weak states defy Beijing, they know what may come next. Global Times readers evidently interpreted this as my prophesying that Southeast Asian states will despair at the hopeless military mismatch in the South China Sea – and give in automatically and quickly during controversies like Scarborough Shoal.

Not so. Diplomacy and war are interactive enterprises. Both sides – not just the strong – get a vote. Manila refuses to vote Beijing’s way.

Military supremacy is no guarantee of victory in wartime, let alone in peacetime controversies. The strong boast advantages that bias the competition in their favor. But the weak still have options. Manila can hope to offset Beijing’s advantages, and it has every reason to try. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? China has been the weaker belligerent in every armed clash since the 19th century Opium Wars. It nevertheless came out on top in the most important struggles.

That the weak can vanquish the strong is an idea with a long pedigree. Roman dictator Quintus Fabius fought Hannibal – one of history’s foremost masters of war – to a standstill precisely by refusing to fight a decisive battle. Demurring let Fabius – celebrated as “the Delayer” – marshal inexhaustible resources and manpower against Carthaginian invaders waging war on Rome’s turf.

Fabius bided his time until an opportune moment. Then he struck.

Similarly, sea power theorist Sir Julian Corbett advised naval commanders to wage “active defense” in unfavorable circumstances. Commanders of an outmatched fleet could play a Fabian waiting game, lurking near the stronger enemy fleet yet declining battle. In the meantime they could bring in reinforcements, seek alliances with friendly naval powers, or deploy various stratagems to wear down the enemy’s strength. Ultimately they might reverse the naval balance, letting them risk a sea fight – and win.

Victory through delay represents time-honored Chinese practice. Mao Zedong built his concept of protracted war on stalling tactics, and, like Corbett, he dubbed his strategic vision “active defense.” For both theorists, active defense was about prolonging wars to outlast temporarily superior opponents.

Mao pointed out that China boasted innate advantages over the Japanese Army that occupied Manchuria and much of China during the 1930s. It merely needed time to convert latent power – abundant natural resources and manpower in particular – into usable military power. Mao’s Red Army later overcame stronger Nationalist forces by winning over popular support, and with it the opportunity to tap resources, establish base areas in the countryside, and the like.

Good things came to those who waited.

So there’s some precedent for Philippine leaders to hope for diplomatic success at Scarborough Shoal. The Philippine military is a trivial force with little chance of winning a steel-on-steel fight. But like lesser powers of the past, Manila can appeal to law, to justice, and to powerful outsiders capable of tilting the balance its way. Sure enough, Philippine officials have advocated submitting the dispute to the Law of the Sea Tribunal and invoked a longstanding U.S.-Philippine mutual defense pact.

Despite all of this, the deck remains heavily stacked against Manila. Why persevere in defying China, with its overwhelming physical might? Thucydides would salute the Filipinos’ pluck. The Greek historian chronicled the Peloponnesian War, the protracted 5th century BC struggle between Athens and Sparta. One of Thucydides’ best-known precepts is that “fear, honor, and interest” represent “three of the strongest motives” driving societies’ actions.

In one infamous episode, Athenian emissaries inform the leaders of Melos, a small island state, that “the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must” when their interests collide. They demand submission. The Melians balk, but have no hope of help from Sparta or any other rescuer. When they remain defiant anyway, the Athenians put the men to the sword while enslaving the women and children.

Fear, honor, and interest animate small states like Melos and the Philippines as much as they do superpowers like Athens and China. Maritime claims are a matter of self-interest for Filipinos. They are also a matter of honor. Beijing can’t expect Manila to simply tally up the balance of forces, acknowledge it faces a hopeless mismatch, and buckle. Philippine leaders can solicit foreign support, and they know Beijing has no Melian option.

Why admit defeat prematurely, any more than Fabius or Mao did?

James Holmes is an associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. The views voiced here are his alone.

Wang

May 14, 2012 at 8:45 am

You think that China even cares what the Philippines do or say on this dispute?
If China had its way, they would enslave the Philippines just as they do to its own people, only the power of the Americans in the region is keeping China from doing it.
I salute the bravery of the Philippino people, you are a fine example to how humanity should behave.

bart

May 14, 2012 at 12:22 pm

Tnx! We may be outgunned and all. But all we can say is PHILIPPINES is not TIBET! If worst comes to worst, we will fight till the end cause we have no other option. Unless the fight is only in the seas, we can’t fight them there cause we don’t have the vessels. 🙂

Morrow Bay Settler

May 14, 2012 at 1:26 pm

There is a fundamental difference between the Philippines and China, that is freedom. The Communist Party needs to behave as a true super power responsibly to gain respect. Unfortunately communism does not know what those guiding principles are. So not only do they lie and deceive the world but its own people also.

applesauce

May 14, 2012 at 1:43 pm

nope not the Philippines in particular, but rather the rest of the world(where it does a lot of business), hence why only the civilian ships are involved and PN’s 3 old ex-US coast guard ships are not yet sitting on the bottom of the sea.

in addition get your facts straight, the U.S actually colonize the Philippines at one point, china did not and has never claimed the Philippines. and the rocks in question were never a part of the Philippines, when the U.S took control from Spain the treaty had specific lines that states what the “Philippines” actually consisted of and it does not include the current disputed area.

june

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 7:35 am

The Philippines is an European creation without the locals’ participation, that’s why so many insurgents in the Philippines fighting for independence. The Philippines must be put forward to ICJ to be determined whether it is a legitimate entity.

ken

May 15, 2012 at 12:20 pm

money and military power wins. not talks

Dawn

May 16, 2012 at 12:55 pm

Perhaps we should look at China itself and see whether it’s a legal entity. Last time I looked, it didn’t have a constitution.

scdad07

May 14, 2012 at 9:21 am

Much credit to the author’s spirit that the weak might still overcome. Many historical facts pointed to such struggles, while many more had disastrous results.

Example against the odds:
Mao refused the choice handed to him by the USA and Russia to divide China into 2, with Mao to the north of Yantze river and Chiang south of it. If both power could divide Germany, who could dare to say ‘NO’.
That brought full civil war into China with KMT’s armies well equipped with US weapons plus bombers, tanks, warships, communications and intelligence.

Cuba, under the influence of Soviet, agreed to the deployment of USSR nuclear missiles on her soil. 50 years later, we still await for a diplomatic break through. Was Cuba setup and later abandoned by Soviet?

The ‘advice to a weaker state’ of this article has been well practiced and demonstrated by Afghanistan. How long should Afghanistan citizens wait?

If US can provide Philippines at least on par to Israel’s $3.1 billion for FY2013, I agree Philippines can wait forever.

applesauce

May 14, 2012 at 1:38 pm

even with an extra 3.1 billion a year pn would still be hopelessly outgunned and there is no reason for the U.S to give, the U.S would have far more to lose(in terms of cooperation with regards to iran, nk and such) than to gain in this case

Ying and Yang

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 3:12 am

@Ying and Yang,
You can defend Philippines’ interest, but fabricating evidence will discredit your position, and make you a laughing stock.

Ying and Yang

May 15, 2012 at 3:58 pm

Oh, come on… EVERYBODY knows that China fabricated evidences in order to brainwash its own mass and whipping up nationalism based on falsehood. It’s all about robbing and beating the gong at the same time.

Dawn

May 16, 2012 at 12:50 pm

Fabricated? The whole world knows China’s notoriety for faked goods and utter ignorance of copyright laws. If China does indeed have that 1279 map, then why not let the international experts look at it and verify its authenticity? It’s just another fake.

php

November 22, 2012 at 4:43 am

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 7:35 am

“The Philippines is an European creation without the locals’ participation, that’s why so many insurgents in the Philippines fighting for independence. The Philippines must be put forward to ICJ to be determined whether it is a legitimate entity.”
@john chan
well the United States of America is the same way…the Native Americans are almost gone..caucasians are from EUROPE, the BLACKS from Africa, Hispanics from South America..so to what you have written about “EUROPEAN CREATION…” and because of this, according to you , it means that United States should be put forward to ICJ to determine if USA is a legitimate entity?

Cyrus

May 14, 2012 at 12:06 pm

We have experienced our share of that analogy. Filipinos VS Spain during the Philippine Revolution; Filipinos VS Americans in the Filipino American War; Filipinos VS Japanese Second World War.

I do not think Philippines would back down, mainly because if you give an inch they would take a mile.

Juan Dela Cruz

May 15, 2012 at 10:50 am

@John Chan
dont forget the Korean War especially on the battle of the Yultong Bridge, China lost thousands of chinese soldiers while the Philippines lost only about 3-10 soldiers.
Dude, it doesnt matter hwo many you are or how modernize your army is, it’s the skill of each soldier. Well, because of the ongoing fight against rebels on Mindanao, almost all of our soldiers are war veteran.

Dawn

John Chan

May 14, 2012 at 12:14 pm

To the Philippines:

China is preparing war over South China Sea shoal. Guangzhou military region, the South China Sea fleet and other units have entered a state of war preparedness. PLAN is preparing for action and that the Guangzhou military command in the south of the country is on a war footing.

John Chan

Zaps

May 14, 2012 at 12:19 pm

above all else, what the two parties is missing through their thinking is common sense, it’s clear that Scarborough Shoal is close to the Philippines, yet the only way to resolve this problem is through negotiation to the international court. That China refused to, from the very beginning, not all things should be resolved through war and tension, it should be resolved in a peaceful way.

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 2:58 am

@Zaps,
The Philippines is the only one using war ships and armed soldiers to harass Chinese fishermen, it is an act of aggression and banditry. China has been calling for negotiation decades. It is wrong for you to spread misinformation.

long

John Chan

@long,
Stop Vietnamese from using poison, explosive and drag net to destroy the South China Sea ecosystem is not beating up Vietnamese greedy fishermen.

Cyrus

May 17, 2012 at 7:37 am

@JC and China harvesting Coral’s and Giant Clams is not destroying the eco-system laughable!

patt castro

November 17, 2012 at 5:36 am

at 2020, chines communist will scheduled to collapsed. if you shoot Philippine boat right now, the communist collapsed immediately, there be a revolt within china.. Remember mongloid, Philippines Has True God of Israel, God of Moses, God of Abraham, and his SonJesus Christ.. god is on Side of Us..No chines vessel can invade philies, God will not allow that.

Rem

May 15, 2012 at 2:47 pm

@John Chan
Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are “happy” members of China?
Who are you kidding?

Greedy Vietnamese using poison, explosive and drag net to destroy the South China Sea ecosystem?
You might as well have been speaking for Chinese fishermen. Do note that the Philippines has documented countless times the incidents of illegal poaching of endangered species and destructive fishing practices by Chinese fishermen who stray into Philippine waters.

Jam

May 14, 2012 at 1:26 pm

But then what does the Philippines planning to do after getting the sovereign ownership to that island?
It can’t even manage the 7,107 islands how much more getting another one.
Another corruption and secret resources of the politicians involve. Sad.
Things seems meaningless.

Godaveri

hi John,
How about first establishing, new countries called Tibet,Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. They won’t be tiny as those Island that you can bully.

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 7:55 am

@Godaveri,
Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are happy members of China, meanwhile there are insurgents in Philippines wanting to break free from the kleptocracy regime in Manila. The UN should establish some no-fly zones in the Philippines for those freedom fighters.

Sin Lok

May 15, 2012 at 11:07 am

@John Chan
You don’t know the real Filipinos John you are not qualified to make that statement!
When we will you have your own opinion John don’t you ever get tired of the Chinese Communist Party holding your tongue!

Cyrus

May 19, 2012 at 6:27 am

John do you even know the history of the Philippines and how we fought repeatedly for Independence from foreign yoke?

I’m sure you did not, so I am not sure you have the authority in saying that the Philippines is a product of the West. If that is the case islands in the Philippines would have scrambled and made alliances with Japan after US defeat in Bataan and Corregidor. Instead what happened? Filipino’s fought against the Japanese greatly outgunned.

Kangmin Zheng

May 15, 2012 at 11:33 am

@John Chan
“Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are happy members of China”
How do you explain people set themselves on fire in Tibet?

John Chan

May 16, 2012 at 12:29 am

@Sin Lok,
All anti-China bloggers are non Chinese, but that didn’t stop them from making baseless narratives about China and smearing China non-stop. Your attempt to silence me surly matches the autocratic kleptocratic characteristics of Philippines.

John Chan

May 16, 2012 at 8:47 am

@Kangmin Zheng,
Few cult monks set themselves on fire in Tibet because they were misled by the 14th DL and for the rewards paid by the CIA.

99.9999% of the Tibetans in China are free from the inhumane theocratic serfdom imposed on them by those insane monks from the day of their birth, their life expectance has doubled, and their living standard has improved in multiples; if you cannot say they are happy members of China, what else can you call it? Using few disgruntling monks as examples to smear the happiness and advancement of the rest of the Tibetans is behaviour of predatory imperialist with insidious intent.

USA has largest prison population in the world, please explain how can you did not do a thing to condemn USA’s poor human rights records?

Sin Lok

May 17, 2012 at 10:32 am

@John Chan
Autocratic Kleptocratic seems to describe more the Chinese Government. The difference between you and me is we can do something about it,thats why we elected China’s most loved Filipino President Benigno Aquino. If you did try to replace your Government you probably end up being crushed by a Tank. By the way I’m
part Chinese.

The Truth

November 18, 2012 at 1:38 am

Oh come on… Do you also know about our history? It was the Chinese who delayed the Japanese invasion in southeast Asia… many Japanese were tied up there to launch a full-scale attack… And you said the Filipinos fought the Japanese outgunned?… What about the Chinese???… Outgunned that some division only had to use swords instead… And you said the Filipinos spent many years fighting for independence?? Well, China had US, UK, Germany, France, Holland, and so on colonized it and spent even more years to fight for independence… oh well but it was the KMT of China (what is now Taiwan) which did many of them, not the communists… 😛

Imran

May 15, 2012 at 12:50 am

we can encourage investments and from your statement alone. WHAT WILL CHINA DO TO THOSE SHOALS? suck the life out of it and spread more chaos around the world?

Leonard R.

May 16, 2012 at 1:09 am

As soon as possible, Manila should lease this rock to Exxon or to a Russian petroleum exploration company. In fact, Russia is a good match for the Scarborough Shoal. It already has interests a short distance away in Vietnam.

Let Hu Jintao fight with Putin. If not – lease it to Exxon or Shell.
If it’s America’s fight — then now is the time to fight it.

mishmael

Sure, the Philippines can hope to draw this out, but before you get all disney-eyed remember that China is also playing to long game, one which is far longer than the Philippines can hope to match.

The author explains how the Philippines can hope to reach a tolerable outcome, but the author’s analysis can equally apply to China, which means that China is at least as determined (if not probably much more) as the Philippines in “winning” the dispute. Long, drawn-out political campaigns against China like the TIbetan and Taiwanese independence movements have so far been basically ineffective. I expect China to use the same playbook involving diplomatic pressure, economic snubs, and perhaps open boycotts to much the same effect.

Ultimately, I don’t really see how it is admirable to waste energy, resources, and valuable political capital on lost causes. SOme may disagree with me, but I think the Philippines has much more important problems than the ownership of Scarborough reef.

andres

May 14, 2012 at 2:25 pm

It is a sad reality for Filipino People to accept it, because some of it’s official in govt. had been dealing and betraying Filipino for a long time now Agents of country with interest knows that they can buy Officials or Information.

It’s Time for Filipino People to Purges it government full of pest and traitors.

Dino Y

May 14, 2012 at 3:34 pm

Isn’t this article actually relevant for Vietnam rather than the Philippines? The Philippines is mostly the US’ mouthpiece in South China Sea, with no will and capacity to stand against the Chinese. It is Vietnam that stands against the Chinese on its own, irrespective of outside support, employing Fabius’ and Mao’s strategies to perfection and defying Thucydides’ dictum.

Ace

May 14, 2012 at 4:43 pm

Let this be the beginning of a “Filipino Dream!”

In Scarborough Shoal, I fear not the Chinese!
Through Scarborough Shoal, I dance with joy we engage ourselves in it!
For Scarborough Shoal, I rise up and say, “Let’s build a dream we call the Philippines!”

Didi

nirvana

May 14, 2012 at 6:41 pm

This tension in the SCS in fact plays very well in the Philippines favor.

The Scarborough has never been a very strong case for China and this standoff further demonstrates to International Community the clumsy manner with which China is locking itself in: a maze of ambiguities, imbroglios and incoherency.

For one, we can observe that there is no official mention of the “dotted line” in all statements by China and media for this incident. Is it so embarrassing to mention China “undisputable historical waters”?

For two, we can observe another imaginative use of historical records. Xinhua for example, in its “Backgrounder: Basic facts on China’s sovereignty over Huangyan Island”, cited first the argument of the astronomer Guo Shoujing alledgely selecting the Scarborough as an astronomical survey point (in 1279). Now knowing that the shoal is at more than 500 miles from Hainan, one may asks why Guo selected this place for his observations? Sure he must justify to his emperor why. In fact, if you dig further into the issue, you will discover that there is no historical account by Guo, or by anyone in his team or administration, of Guo ever setting foot on any rock of the Scarborough. No map, no expedition preparation, no report of the difficulties of maing observations on rocks. Either the ancient scientists were sloppy in their reports, or today’s Chinese scientists (a very few of them) have been overzealous in interpreting history.

For three, even if, with a big stretch of imagination, we accept that an (Chinese) astronomer, under the commission a (Mongol) administration, knew and use the Scarborough for some scientific purpose, it would not be a title of discovery, and certainly a proof of sovereingty for TODAY’s China. We can ask ourselves why the next date cited by Xinhua for facts administrative Chinese acts on the shoal is 1935? What happens during the centuries in between? In summary, nothing before 1279 and suddenly this very far away place (and dangerous for navigation) was “selected”, then forgotten for centuries… Really “undisputable proofs”?

For four, the standoff started by the incident of Philippines forces inspecting alledgely Chinese fishermen catching endangered species. Now, in 2 days, China will impose its unilateral moratorium on fishing above 12-degree latitude (as if the whole SCS is already under China’s administration). Let’s see if China will keep the fishing boats (and the Maritime Patrol vessels to protect them) near the Scarborough. If not the situation will de-escalate due to the self-imposed, scientifically illogical and unlawful annual Chinese unilateral fishing moratorium!

Marisa

May 14, 2012 at 7:52 pm

No country should ever capitulate to China ever again. Mistakes were made in the past. China invaded Tibet and destroyed a sovereign country. The situation in Tibet is dire. China invaded East Turkestan and turned it into Xinjiang – again another tragedy for their culture. Now China wants Taiwan and all of the South China Sea and all its islands. If the world stands up to China, it has no choice but to abide by the law. If China sees it can again take away land, it will continue. It is like a greedy child which has no concern about right and wrong, justice and laws. China is a lawless country, so it is no surprize that this country behaves this way. So, the Philippines should never give in to China since it would only be the beginning of China wanting to take more islands away.

Juan De la Cruz

May 14, 2012 at 8:46 pm

CHINESE MEDIA AT ITS FINEST! Whew! 😛 Im hoping that you bring the dispute yo the ITLOS if not then YOUR CLAIMS ARE NOT VALID AND ITS JUST A MAKE-UP THING SO THAT YOU CAN ASSERT YOUR CONTROL TO THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA. Oh yes BTW I heard that your telling the GREAT NORTHERN NATION Of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION to not intervene in this dispute. Why because they’re in your sphere of “influence”?

Jason

May 14, 2012 at 9:15 pm

I want to point out that Scarborough Shoal has been belonging to China since Yuan dynasty after Guo Shoujing went there to investigate. And also it was the Philippines that set out a warship first to confront Chinese law-enforcement vessels. China cherishes peace, but no less than it’s sovereignty.

aaron

May 14, 2012 at 11:24 pm

@Jason And why do you think that Philippine people didn’t travel to, or fish in those waters earlier than Chinese??? Scarborough Shoal is much closer to the Philippines than it is to China, don’t you think people from the Philippines would have traveled there first? And besides, throughout history, China never claimed, or was concerned about areas beyond its land borders. Taiwan wasn’t even made a full province of China until the late 1800s, what makes you think China would claim something so far away, and empty, like those rocks at Scarborough Shoal?

confucious

May 14, 2012 at 11:27 pm

tsk!tsk!tsk!look at Chinas claims of territories in ASEAN, India, Japan and South Korea, issues with Taiwan and Tibet. China is not a friendly neighbor, can you explain your views to the countries that China have accounted for?

Hercules Lamon

May 14, 2012 at 11:28 pm

@Jason:
If the world will honor China’s claim based on history, then it might as well return large parts of Europe, Middle East, and North Africa to Italy because those areas were once ruled by the Roman Empire.
Egypt should also demand the return of the empires built by the pharaohs.
Macedonia should also be given control of the empire created by Alexander the Great.
And we should give the moon to the USA because it planted a flag on the moon for all the universe to see.
If China believes that its claim is legitimate, then it should drag the Philippines to the ITLOS for arbitration.
But whose dragging whom to the ITLOS?
China is adamantly refusing to resolve the dispute through international arbitration while the Philippines is demanding international arbitration. Tell me, Jason, which party now believes that its claim is legitimate?

Alex

Klee

May 14, 2012 at 10:45 pm

The author, in my opinion, actually wastes a whole lengthy article to try to answer a seem-to-be easy question. The 95% of reasons that Philippines stands firm on this dispute is because they count on US’s military involvement if conflict breaks out and they believe they together will win over the islands at the end. But I believe the start game (war) maybe simple, the end game (peace) will be complicated.
If both sides can stand firm without war, at the end I think the likely solution is that they both share exploring the sea mineral reserves, oil or natural gas, etc. This will be the most saving faces for both sides. Otherwise, it will be messy.

scdad07

May 15, 2012 at 3:34 am

“the likely solution is that they both share exploring the sea mineral reserves, oil or natural gas, etc.”

Past president Arroyo had those agreements going on. That was until president Aquino came into power and the world witnesses the impeachment of Arroyo as well as Supreme Court Chief Justice – ‘purging political enemies’.

Playing the card on Arroyo’s closeness to China becomes Aquino’s Anti-China political choosing and therefore, showing to be a faithful and first attack dog on ‘American pivot’ is a must. Too bad, misread ‘bark’ not ‘growl’.

pisbol

Matt

May 14, 2012 at 10:56 pm

The US should now make a move before China is allowed to pick the place of battle. Japan or South Korea should send warships to a disputed rock where we could easily defend and see where it leads. If China grabs our left (weak Philippines) hand we should grab China by the balls and force them to the ground. I could imagine we could make many problems on many rocks for China. Maybe if she understands this she will stop causing problems. The truth is the US Navy when combined with South Korean Navy and Japanese Navy have many more warships to stir the pot with than China. And fishing boats don’t count and should be sent to the bottom at first sight. Pick up survivors but don’t allow fishing boats freedom of maneuver. The side with the bigger stick should win and there is no debating who has the largest Navy in the world.

Girish

May 14, 2012 at 11:06 pm

China is a problem and Powerful China is a danger for all the countries in the region(except rogue states alike NK and Pakistan).
Unforchunately, war seems invitable now. Either the world must except Chinese CPC/PLA supremecy, just like billion+ suppressed Chinese or take a touch stand against it.
Its a good opurchunity or the Chinese to prepare for their much awaited freedom now from CPC rule..

dini

Hercules

May 14, 2012 at 11:29 pm

If the world will honor China’s claim based on history, then it might as well return large parts of Europe, Middle East, and North Africa to Italy because those areas were once ruled by the Roman Empire.
Egypt should also demand the return of the empires built by the pharaohs.
Macedonia should also be given control of the empire created by Alexander the Great.
And we should give the moon to the USA because it planted a flag on the moon for all the universe to see.
If China believes that its claim is legitimate, then it should drag the Philippines to the ITLOS for arbitration.
But whose dragging whom to the ITLOS?
China is adamantly refusing to resolve the dispute through international arbitration while the Philippines is demanding international arbitration. Tell me, Jason, which party now believes that its claim is legitimate?

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 11:52 am

@Hercules,
You are wrong, no one is stopping Philippine from filing complain to the ITLOS, it is wrong for you to blame China for Philippines’ failure.

As you said yourself, you believe historical evidence is irrelevant, only actually control matters, it is called De Factor sovereignty, that is nearly all national sovereignty in world defined; and that’s how Philippines encroaches islands inside the nine-dotted line in the South China Sea. Therefore Philippines must expect China is going to regain those islands from Philippines using the same means as Philippines used. This is called principal of reciprocity in the international laws.

Ang Toh Kho

May 15, 2012 at 12:39 am

Scarborough Shoal belongs to the Philippines. China has no legal evidence to counter-claim.

As a signatory to the treaty, China should have understood what the EEZ means as prescribed by the UNCLOS. But China doesn’t get it. China refuses to honor the treaty. When a signatory to a treaty does not respect it, it only means fishing for trouble. What can a dwarf country do when it is bullied by a giant one? Nothing? All the Philippines hold for now is the treaty. That’s why China must agree to settle the matter in an international tribunal. If the tribunal’s decision will favor China’s claim, then the Philippines must accept it. But if the ruling will say otherwise, then China should adhere to it. A diplomatic solution is through that way and China must go that way too as the Philippines is already going that way.

Neko

May 15, 2012 at 12:42 am

China should be reminded that boasting their military prowess can create threat in the region… if they truly value PEACE, diplomacy should be dealt with great importance… seeking international arbitration with the use of ITLOS will even the shadows that has been lurking throughout the issues.. War has never justified the emergence of peace.. history was the witness.!

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 3:28 am

@Neko,
Japan is a war criminal without remorse; it is hypocritical for Japan to propose peace it does not respect and care. Please go and ask your government to show remorse about its war crimes as the Germans did first.

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 8:26 am

@Brian,
Do you mean “bygone is bygone, past has nothing to do the present,” so that the imperialist Westpac can wipe their ugly past clean and start their forefathers’ atrocity against humanity all over again without moral burden?

Japan so far has refused to show remorse about their war crimes, but your white-washing of Japanese war crimes surely is an eye opener in the camp of siding the war criminals. Perhaps white-washing Japanese war crimes make the Westpac’s bombing and killing non stop since WWII less evil.

John Chan

maybeman

Brian

May 15, 2012 at 6:56 am

How on earth can Vietnam and the Philippines be greedy and arrogant considering these sets of islands are generally closer to their territories? Why don’t you figure out who claims a set of islands a hundred of miles away from its territory for I feel they are acting far more greedy and arrogant.

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 11:05 am

@Brian,
What does distance have to do with one’s sovereignty? Hawaii and Guam are thousands miles away from North America, why does USA claim them as theirs? Diaoyu islands are thousands km away from Japan, why does Japan want to seize it as its? Diego Garcia and Falkland Islands are thousands miles from British Isle, why does the British hold on to them with wars and genocide?

What kind of logic do you have? The Whiteman claims places ridiculous far away from their home turf, yet they feel perfectly alright, and its their entitlement; meanwhile Chinese try to protect their ancestor’s discovery, all hell breaks loose; it seems the Whiteman is moving their exceptionalism further away from the reality, no wonder this world is full of unfairness.

ken

May 15, 2012 at 12:12 pm

The islands are closer Philippines does not mean they belong to Philippines.
Falkland islands near Argentina is a territory of UK.

Maharlika

May 15, 2012 at 2:47 pm

John Chan is Chinese, that is why…

Fed up with PRC Chinese rhetorics

May 16, 2012 at 3:14 am

@ John Chan

“What does distance have to do with one’s sovereignty? Hawaii and Guam are thousands miles away from North America, why does USA claim them as theirs? Diaoyu islands are thousands km away from Japan, why does Japan want to seize it as its? Diego Garcia and Falkland Islands are thousands miles from British Isle, why does the British hold on to them with wars and genocide?

What kind of logic do you have? The Whiteman claims places ridiculous far away from their home turf, yet they feel perfectly alright, and its their entitlement; meanwhile Chinese try to protect their ancestor’s discovery, all hell breaks loose; it seems the Whiteman is moving their exceptionalism further away from the reality, no wonder this world is full of unfairness”

Point and shoot… This is typical CCP Chinese anxiety and jealousy over western and eastern powers. China is so jealous that as a super power wannabe it does not have any colonial places that they have occupied outside of China except for Tibet. That is why they are hell bent in grabbing territories because they want to prove to the world they are a colonial power to be reckon with. The world is not The USA and the same goes for China. China is not the world!

PeaceMessi

May 17, 2012 at 5:37 am

John Chan should now draw another cow-tongue map to cover the whole Pacific Ocean. Maybe in 50 or 100 years in case of any decline of the US and other powers, then your grandchildren will say that they have some historical claims made by John Chan in 2012 to have the indisputable sovereignty over the whole Pacific (just like the Chinese now are playing with the U-shaped map drawn by a man from ROC in 1947). With your comments here you portray and display very well the image of China.

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 1:33 am

This article can be classified as an operation twist. The article does nothing but continue to smear China and white wash USA’s sleigh hand of stirring up the animosity and acrimony in the South China Sea and breaking up the progress of peace and prosperity in South China Sea region.

For decades China has been urging the Philippines and all other claimants in the South China Sea to resolve the disputes thru negotiations, meanwhile shelving the disputes and co-developing the disputed areas. It is all reasonable and practical.

The succeed of such rational approach will set the precedent that indigenous people can run their own business, and its message will spread all over the world, resulting people all over the world start to ask the predatory imperialist USA to leave them alone and let them manage their own affairs. This is a renaissance of freedom for the world

This genuine freedom will reveal that the tyrant emperor USA has no cloths, its cloths of R2P, siding the weak, world policemen, democracy, human rights, etc. are nothing but lies weaved by the snakeoil salesmen.

So China’s peaceful solution just can’t be allowed, the tyrant said, operation of pivoting is called for; step one is to scare the hippie president in the Philippines into vocal cannon fodder if he does not want to be ended like Sukarno and dead. With some warships and small changes as teaser, the Philippines stepped onto the stage and performed its stringed dance; meanwhile “Why Philippines Stands Up to China” is necessary to make the strings opaque.

Jay Sleater

May 15, 2012 at 3:37 am

Reading your comment gave me a headache — I think I understood only 5 sentences in your paragraph. Are you educated? By the way, what did you mean by “hippie president of the Philippines?” Even figuratively speaking, it doesn’t make sense. It’s even more outrageous in the literal sense, because the Aquino is balding.

Face the obvious: China clamps down on its news information. The masses there don’t know much of what’s going on around the world. What they hear instead is propaganda. China doesn’t want the Philippines to have the Spratlys because of the natural resources there – something that China needs badly. And the U.S. is playing its cards with this proxy battle because it needs a cold-war with China. The Philippines allows this because it needs the heft to back up their fight.

Ian Richardson

May 15, 2012 at 1:52 pm

John Chan your over enthusiatic loyalty to China [I presume from your text that you are a mainlander] whilst patriotic & understandable in that context, is an example of why in this age if China behaves in the same way that you write, it will not be a great power. It is simply not acceptable now to carry on in the same way that the Imperial Courts did for centuries – this expansionary grab is imperialist & neo-colonialist exploitative.
Who will believe/trust a land where corruption is rife & laws have no meaning?

Datupac

BEIJING – An anchor on China’s state-run television network has accidentally declared the Philippines a part of China, in an embarrassing gaffe as tensions between the two nations run high.

He Jia, anchor for China Central Television’s (CCTV) nationally televised news broadcast, made the claim during a late Monday broadcast that has been repeatedly replayed on the Internet.

The presenter apparently meant to say that the Huangyan islands — known in the Philippines as the Scarborough Shoal, and claimed by both nations — is China’s territory.

“We all know that the Philippines is China’s inherent territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is an indisputable fact,” she said in the broadcast, which has since disappeared from the CCTV website but is available elsewhere on the web.

Viewers joked in online postings that the presenter’s nationalistic fervor led to her mistake. Totally hilarious! Please enlighten me regarding this John Chan.

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 2:26 am

@SingaporeSlinger,
Malaysia and Indonesia both claim Singapore part of their territory, why doesn’t Singapore settle the dispute with them at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea? Is heavily armed Singapore a sign of banditry?

John Chan

May 15, 2012 at 11:28 am

@Calvin,
Why are you so upset? I merely did what the SingaporeSlinger does, be generous at somebody’s expenses; if Singapore truly believes it has a legitimate claim to Singapore, why does Singapore refuse to settle the dispute with the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)?

scdad07

May 15, 2012 at 2:42 am

Both China and Philippines, when they signed on to UNCLOS, exempted from or refused to accept Section 2 of Part XV on ‘sovereignty issue’.

Neither country, so far, declares that she will reverse and now accept such.

118 degree East was what USA granted Philippines on her independence in 1946. Take note.

Not your typical Internet moron

Let me set the record straight as to why the Philippines’ call for ITLOS’ arbitration is a total and complete BOGUS argument. It’s a political ploy that has no legal basis.

According to Mr. Rigoberto Tiglao, the former Ambassador of the Philippines to Greece, written in the Philippines Inquirer, that:

President Benigno Aquino and his officials are going to make themselves the laughing stock of the world, because, the Philippines herself, when she ratified the UNCLOS in 1984, has SPECIFICALLY stated that the UNClOS does not apply to the Philippines as far as territorial disputes are concerned. In other words, the Philippines’ own ratification of UNCLOS excludes any and all issues related to territorial disputes.

More importantly, also according to Mr. Tiglao, of the 19 cases that have made their way to ITLOS since 1997, they were all involved disputes of marine activities, and NOT territorial disputes. In other words, ITLOS does NOT have jurisdiction over territorial disputes.

Repeat after me: ITLOS does NOT have jurisdiction over territorial disputes, and the Philippines’ own ratification of UNCLOS specifically excludes any and all issues related to territorial disputes.

Not your typical Internet moron

Repeat after me: ITLOS does NOT have jurisdiction over territorial disputes, and the Philippines’ own ratification of UNCLOS specifically excludes any and all issues related to territorial disputes.

So you think you know more and better than the Ambassador! If you want to rebut the Ambassador’s conclusion, offer something of substance.

Datupac

May 22, 2012 at 2:57 am

@Not your typical Internet moron

Roberto Tiglao is a political appointed Ambassador of Former President Gloria Arroyo, that’s is his view point. But I rather wait for a career diplomat to say his/her opinion to UNCLOS and ITCLOS. By the way try to do some research on Tiglao where he came from before believing on his opinion, we should all know the credibility of the person first.

Chico

May 15, 2012 at 3:16 am

It’s very obvious that China has bad intentions, propagandas are well scripted.

I just hope that the “delay” on the part of the Philippines is because of the government and the people’s proactive choice of maintaining peace through diplomacy and not mere laziness and lack of action.

zack amiano

May 15, 2012 at 6:43 am

even after the war, the people of the world would still think that china should have done the right and legal way, and then there would also be a lot of denunciations coming from the international community..on military use, it will not be a wise decision to use military force since the matter can be brought up to the international tribunal

malampaya

papa john

May 15, 2012 at 6:51 am

The question is how to stop the seemingly endless Chinese territorial claims? If they can claim the SCS as theirs, then they could go on claiming the moon and they might say they saw it first as historical undisputable ground, the they will mobilize an army of 50centers spreading those of undisputed facts around the world. If someone disagrees, then they will pick a person in a wheelchair to attack first like we see they are hitting the Philippines right now. The US should say that is enough already taking side with the Philippines and forcefully feeding the sick man of Asia a bitter pill, strong enough to make him sleep in shame for the world to see.

malampaya

StopChinaNow

May 15, 2012 at 9:17 am

Sad, the other countries also disputing China’s claim of South China Sea are not supporting the Philippines. Looks like the Philippines is on it’s own. Even the US does not want to back up it’s former colony. Ones the Philippines gives China ownership of this reef; there is no stopping China whatever she sets her eyes on,
the countries surrounding her.

STOP PINOY NOW

May 15, 2012 at 3:31 pm

YOU FIND THAT , YOU MUST TAKE IT
YOU MAKE TROUBLEMAKER , YOU MUST RESPONSIBLE
NOW , YOU MUST CORECTIONS YOU SELF , WHY YOU PRETEND WHIZ BASTARD , PILIPHINES , YOU ARE JINGO ??
NOW YOU JUST CRYING NOW
WHINE HELP FROM US AND USA
HIK…HIK…HIK… UNCLE SAM… UNCLE SAM… HELP ME PLEASE…..
ANS UNCLE SAM SAID .. YA…YA… YA… THAT I HELP YOU , MORE THAN ENOUGH , YOU MUST BUY MY ANY MUSEUM WEAPON , I GRAND SALE OLD WEAPON FOR YOU PILIPHINES … HA…HA…HA… MONEY…MONEY… EASY COME MONEY EASY GO OLD WEAPON … HA…HA…HA…
HIK…HIK…HIK…VIETNAM…VIETNAM… HELP ME PLEASE… HIK…HIK…HIK…MALAYSIA …MALAYSIA …HELP ME PLEASE….
HIK…HIK…HIK…BRUNEI…BRUNEI… HELP ME PLEASE….
HIK…HIK…HIK… TAIWAN…TAIWAN…HELP ME PLEASE…
HIK…HIK…HIK… CHINA…CHINA… I’M SORRY…SO…SORRY….PLEASE….
AND NOW WE ARE SAID I DON’T CARE , FOR GET IT
PHILIPHINES YOU SHOULD KNOW, THAT YOU ALSO DISPUTE WITH US ( VIETNAM, MALAYSIA, BRUNEI ,TAIWAN, CHINA )
SO HOW CAN WE HELP ??
IF WE HELP, WE MEAN TO ADMIT THAT’S ISLAND PILIPHINES
WE AREN’T LIKE THAT , EXCEPT THAT NOT ISLAND PILIPHINES ACKNOWLEDGE AS
AND WE AGAINST PILIPHINES INVITED UNITED STATE TO INTERVENE
MIND YOU PILIPHINES

Czatlyskia

a_canadian_observer

May 16, 2012 at 1:14 am

@STOP PINOY NOW: Congratulations for coming up with such powerful and eloquent statements. You’ve represented china well. You should be very proud! This piece of work must be a product of 5000+ years of history/civilization.

Ian Richardson

May 15, 2012 at 9:55 am

China has a long history of saying over & over again that a piece of territory belongs to it, often brazenly in the face of the exact opposite. It’s a strategy that has also worked over a very long time. They have proved myth can become fact. The Tibetans some time around 600CE are an example. A Tibetan army comprehensively defeated the Chinese army but the Chinese refused to acknowledge it & just kept on insisting that they ruled the disputed territory when they actually never had. Most people today wrongfully accept the Chinese version though.
The Chinese want the South China Sea & expect to take it & other nearby waters.
Should any international tribunal rule against a Chinese territorial claim it will be ignored.
This is the sort of behaviour that leaves little short of armed conflict for those who would otherwise seek a fair deal with China.

Errol T

Bamm

May 15, 2012 at 1:39 pm

China’s claim is based on an ancient Chinese map c. 1279 AD. This map indeed and unquestionably shows Huangyan Island as part of China. China also gave the name to the island and the area has been traditional fishing ground for Chinese fishermen.

Now, for now let us agree that China’s argument is sufficient to claim sovereignty over Huangyan island.

What China doesn’t tell you is:

1. The same map shows the entire islands of Luzon and Palawan as part of China.
2. China gave the name to Luzon. Its Chinese name is Lu Song.
3. Lu Song was a tributary to the Chinese empire during the 1200s.
4. Fishermen from Lu Song has traditionally fished in the area too, perhaps for centuries before China discovered it, due to it being just hours away from the coast (compared to days away from the Chinese coast).

Therefore, if we assume the sufficiency of the China argument, then it must also apply to the whole of Luzon and parts of Palawan. But we know as a fact that Luzon is not Chinese territory. Thus their argument leads to a contradiction.

By reductio ad absurdum, the arguments given by China are not sufficient to claim Huangyan Island.

WuMaoCleverbot

May 15, 2012 at 8:57 pm

China is not above the United Nations. China is not above international law. You are not the center of the world. You have no right to step on other country’s rights just because you have more money and have bigger guns.

China’s historical evidence is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. And everything is just based on what their government claiming. No-
pictures available on the net or newspapers. The Chinese government is just fabricating LIES about their history. Why won’t any Chinese post a link of their historical evidence.

All Philippine maps are readily available over the net. Google it. Whereas the chinese maps ARE NOWHERE TO BE FOUND.

So WHERE ARE THE ANCIENT MAPS?? Have you seen it? I haven’t! Has anyone in this forums seen it and can provide a link to it?
We have always wondered why China keeps on insisting bilateral country to country talks only, and resorts to various forms of
harrassments instead of just proving their claim over the courts.

Now we know. China does not have any evidence to back his claims. Should the evidence even be produced, it would not be evidence of sovereignty of Philippine territory. Even your government officials and proffessors from your universities cannot show any proof! Admit it. You know that SCARBOROUGH IS PHILIPPINE TERRITORY. It will be hard to accept, but the evidence is there. China has no evidence.

China has been calling for war all this time just because they cannot prove their claims.

Chinese wu maos have always resorted to insults and baseless comments all these time because they cannot rebutt Philippine
claims over our territory.

China’s 9 dash line is nothing but an imaginary set of broken lines. Imaginary because they could not even produce the 1200′s map they used as a basis. Imaginary because should they be able to produce the map, it contains inaccurate mapping data of misplaced islands and waters as this was made during the 1200′s. Imaginary as should they be able to produce the map, the map does not contain only details on china, but also those of neighboring countries. Will china claim all the countries indicated on the map as well?

But produce it first, if it really exists. Stop with all these fictitious claims. Prove that you have sovereignty over the islands. The Philippines already laid down their evidences and it is very convincing. China does not have any.

Therefore, again and again i will say: THE PHILIPPINES OWNS SCARBOROUGH.

Alfredo Desiderio

May 15, 2012 at 9:04 pm

I am from Lu Song and the family of my ancestor are from Beijing Region. Following the Communist Chinese way of presenting territorial claims, I claim the rights to the whole of China because historically, my clan had lived there centuries ago. The present-day occupants of China should drown themselves in their rivers because they are squatters in my realm.

scdad07

scdad07

May 16, 2012 at 1:44 pm

Did your ancestor go to Italy as NOT a slave of Marco? If the status was not a slave but as free man, you should file legal lawsuits with EU/UN on violation of intellectual properties in order to claim for damages and royalties that western civilization stole, rob and disregard with reckless intents.

By any chance, your forefather left you map of China? That may be a sure way to prove that you are a true Mongolian from Yuen Dynasty? Otherwise, Ronald Trump can say whoever he is from.

nirvana

Observer

May 15, 2012 at 2:07 pm

@ John Chan said “Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are happy members of China”
and “Stop Vietnamese from using poison, explosive and drag net to destroy the South China Sea ecosystem is not beating up Vietnamese greedy fishermen.”

If Tibet people are so happy, then why Tibetans were burning themselves to death in protest? Why there were uprising against chinese invasion?

Do you have any well know neutral sources about Vietnam fishermen used dynamite? I asked before from another chinese poster but he posted a link from a chinese website and we all know how much propaganda they are. Just from this website, there are many stories about how china attacked, captured, beat up, and demand ransome money from poor and unarmed fishermen like low class pirates.

Speaking of ecosystem, why don’t you and the readers use Google and look up “china pollution pictures” and see for yourself how chinese treat their own country. How nasty it is in china.

scdad07

May 16, 2012 at 9:17 am

@Observer – “Tibet, Xingjiang and Inner Mongolia are happy members of China”

You should go and visit those places in order to have a personal and real life experience. Study/research the people’s living conditions 100, 200 years ago before PRC taking over after KMT’s departure. How religion played in the majority of events throughout history.

One can use many measuring points (matrix) to judge whether true efforts have been made (e.g. population growth, income, education level, no. of schools, hospitals, electrical/water supply and life expectancy, business licenses, etc.). When you are there, ask whether your food is salted with ‘Iodine’ salt.

Take USA for example, with her mighty hard and soft power, wins little mind and soul in Iraq nor Afghanistan. Why Americans hate Muslims? Fact, Propaganda or Smears – when was the last time one watches US major channels broadcast a good Samaritan act by a Muslim? Per Zakaria of CNN, a good act broadcasts widely is because the country needs a positive news because she desperately needs one no matter how small.

Those before PRC lost their wealth and power.

Leave you to do your own research, maybe ‘suicide bomber’ can be a subject to explain what one is to believe.

V Lim

May 15, 2012 at 2:27 pm

James Holmes’ article shows lack of knowledge about Philippines or its culture. Philippines is not in the same league as the nations or people he mentions in the article. There is a very simple fact – out in the high seas, where there is a belief that there are valuable resources underneath, the fight can be intense when needed. China is a whale and the Philippines is a small “bangus” (small milk fish). There is a gross mismatch in the full spectrum of abilities. It is better for the “bangus” to simply swim away, and let the sea be tranquil. Let nature be what it is.

V Lim

May 19, 2012 at 3:28 pm

I thought the Americans defeated the Japanese in the Philippines. Filipinos were then colonial subjects of America. It was after the war that Philippines was given its independence; it was pointless for America to hang on to a possession that was not productive. Filipinos have clinged on to the idea that somehow USA would help in any dispute it created by venturing out to an area where China is determined to extract resources. Has anybody checked on the treaty that the USA refuses to sign with regards to resources under the seabed ?

It is more sensible for the Philippines to back off and negotiate for a “cut” however small it is. One has to be practical, and not try to show bravado. Would anyone yelling “fight” be willing to paddle out on a “banca” to the shoal and make a meaningful stand?

Cyrus

May 21, 2012 at 7:53 am

We are already Independent before being defeated by the Americans in the Spanish-American War. We are a American Commonwealth and we are due to be granted Independence. So yeah we are relatively free, and who made possible the battle of Leyte? It is the Filipino Guerilla who was able to find that evidence of japanese war plans.

Dawn

May 17, 2012 at 3:37 pm

I beg to disagree. Defeatism has never been in the mindset of the Filipino.

Tolits

May 15, 2012 at 2:34 pm

this no longer a question of how big your opponent is and your chance of winning a fight…if we believe that this shoal belongs to us, we shall defend it with everything and anything we have..an intruder is inside your house,we must defend ourselves fight with bare hands and teeth if necessary.

Dawn

malampaya

Siddharth

May 15, 2012 at 10:35 pm

China is really shameless. They are lawless and do not have any regard for the international treaties.
First they sign a treaty and then they do not follow and respect those treaties by calling it “unequal treaties” This is just a provocation to other signatories. This is backstabbing. Thus, China can never be trusted no matter how many treaties you sign (even an alliance/mutual defense treaty)

Sudely

May 15, 2012 at 11:23 pm

Make no mistake people! After the Chinese take the Spratlys, Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal, they’ll take the rest of Southeast Asia. Just like how Nazi Germany annexed Sudetenland (German-speaking Czechoslovakia) before taking the rest of Czechoslovakia (followed by Poland, Denmark, Norway etc).

John Chan

May 16, 2012 at 10:04 am

@Sudely,
British can fool most of the people most of the time, but they cannot fool most of the people all the time. European statehoods were in flux before 1945, they were swallowing and splitting each other all the time. British could not stand Germany looting without sharing, so it started WWII to teach the German a lesson. WWII was a plain old European power struggle between the two imperial powers, but they need to drag the whole world down with them.

Chinese is not European; please do not use European bad behaviour as predication to smear China.

BTW when is British going to admit its crime against humanity in Diego Garcia? And when is the British going to give up all those occupied lands far away from its home turf?

raoul

May 16, 2012 at 1:47 pm

The Chinese are like the pre-WW1 and WW2 Europeans in the way they seize territory with the flimsiest of justifications, except maybe for “outright GREED”. Those so-called historical claims to the entire South China Sea are so weak that China even refuses to defend its claim in an international forum such as the UN thru ITLOS and instead insists on facing down each small neighbor one-by-one where China has a better chance of grabbing territory outright like they did with Mischief Reef in the ’90s.

John Chan

@raoul,
You are wrong, no one can stop Philippines file complain to ITLOS; Philippines does not have intention to do that, it just wants to abuse UNCLOS and ITLOS for its illegal gains.

The charter of UNCLOS encourages bilateral negotiation to resolve disputes; it is wrong for you to spread half-truth irresponsibly. Negotiation table is a level play field, no one can bring guns to the table, only truth and talent matters; that’s why the Westpac prefers guns over negotiation all the time because they do not truth on their side.

I am not sure whether French is qualified to have an opinion in this dispute considering its ugly colonization past and is poisoning indigenous people in the Pacific Ocean with nuclear radiation. The peaceful standoff between Philippines and China compares pale to the French outright grabbing territory.

ACT

May 17, 2012 at 2:58 am

@john chan

all i know is that the PRC continues to consider military force a viable option in the matter of the Scarborough Shoal issue, in spite of the fact that both ships currently in the standoff are unarmed. That alone, in my mind, suggests whom i should consider the aggressor here.

php

November 22, 2012 at 5:40 am

@suddenly
It is so true.
@john chan
you’re writing that because you know its true and if the world is smart enough and will take actions now then your country wont make it far…I wonder..this territorial issue starts long time ago…I wonder why your country (China) never showed any behavior, like what it’s showing now, before where capitalism is at its peak, where US is the super power and your allies were just bunch of lunatics with cool gadgets but no money? Why?

Dave

May 15, 2012 at 11:42 pm

I might be the only one, but the amount of conflicts and growing levels of direct intervention on the part of China with foreign powers is alarming.

China has some 50+ distinct people groups many with different dialects that have been brought together by force twice before 1963 and twice before have been ripped apart by internal conflict. In light of unconfirmed coos by military leaders, the standing down of prominent political leaders, the head of the police unsuccessfully trying to defect to the US, unofficial headline inflation rates of 20%, a growing disparity between the economic trade zones in the East and the impoverished farmers etc. in the West of China, riots in various parts and more bankers and financial professionals leaving than rats fled the titanic and you could safely say if looks like fire, smells like smoke, we have a powder keg with a lit fuse.

Mid March China announced a change in economic policy from exporting to internal consumption, which would very clearly indicate that it and every other economy can see the writing on the wall when it comes to the global economy.

All of this means incredible internal forces at play pulling in different directions.

These events, though trivial to an outsider, point to a mechanism where an external threat is conjured up to deliberately stir up nationalism and patriotism to alleviate the internal stresses.

I don’t envy their leaders task of transitioning the country into a hybrid communist / highly regulated open economy and all that that entails. I genuinely whish them all the best, but I do really hold a concern for the people of China. If this unravels the way many of us think it will, it will be a real tragedy.

Brinksmanship on the high seas is a very dangerous game thats prone to mistakes, one the US and Europe may very well be hoping for as their economies faulter.

whyarockisnotanisland

May 16, 2012 at 1:53 am

The US Embassy in Beijing has said in a leaked cable that no evidence of an ancient map of the “cow’s tongue” or the nine-dashed line can be provided by any relevant agency. Including those from experts in Beijing University. Is there really such a thing?

Dawn

ACT

May 16, 2012 at 5:17 am

I find not the article, but the stream of comments, extremely interesting: if one had solely the sources of comments here on the article, one could easily suggest that the PRC and the Republic of the Philippines were already at war. As it is, things are already getting worse; according to Longshan, who posted in the article “Could U.S. Get Sucked Into War?”, the PLAN is already at full alert regarding the issue: he noted that a Chinese naval officer who attended a wedding was doing so in full combat uniform. this alone–whether true or not–suggests that the comments made here actually do reflect the tensions that exist currently between Manila and Beijing, and that–at this point–it is simply a matter of who fires the first shot. However, i predict that if it does come to conflict, that the U.S. will not get involved, for the reasons that it has simply lost too much blood and treasure in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Furthermore, it is an election year. If Obama got the United States involved in another war, it could very well mean that he would be defeated in elections. I believe that another war at this time would produce a reaction similar to the protests over the Vietnam War, and that it would take a serious transgression by the PLAN to involve the U.S. Navy and populace on a scale necessary to aid the Philippines, such as another pearl harbor equivalent–which i assume that PLAN strategists are wise enough to avoid.

There is also the issue that if the US does indeed involve itself in the conflict, that it has the most to lose, whereas Beijing and Manila have the most to gain: intervention by the US would dispel any anti-government sentiment in the PRC and would give the PRC the perfect excuse to further any political and military ambitions it has for the region, enabling it to further expand its military in terms of both actual equipment and personnel as well as research. Furthermore, any intervention on the part of the US navy would be seen as a direct act of war, requiring the PRC to eliminate any US bases in the area, including South Korea and Japan; Japan would go on alert and retaliate, and North Korea would no doubt make good on its promise made earlier to reduce Seoul to ashes. Simply put, US intervention would–in very real terms–touch off World War Three, and that is something that no administration wants to deal with, save perhaps for a potential Romney Administration; while the US would lose lives and treasure fighting an unpopular war, Manila would be able to–for the most part–sit back and watch the fireworks, with minimal lives lost due to the size of its navy and armed forces.

Lastly, due to the size of the PRC, any attempt at settling a conflict would require a full military pacification of the PRC, which could in turn require a land war, something that the US military could not fight against the PRC without grievous losses; the PRC could very quickly raise an army fully a sixth the size of the total US population, one that would be able to stamp out any US force in Asia by virtue of sheer numbers.

to summarize, no i do not think that the US will intervene, and i firmly believe that the Philippines will be very much alone in any conflict, despite all the face that the United States would lose.

John Chan

Jaisingh Thakur

May 16, 2012 at 9:41 pm

I respect the knowledge and the foresight shown by the respected readers and their views expressed in these columns. In my view, however, the entire Philippines controversy is a show deliberately stage-managed by the communist party mandarins in Beijing. While not belittling the stakes involved in the South China Sea for both the PRC as well as Manila, in my view, however, that is not the only reason for Chinese sabre-rattling witnessed over the past few weeks. Beijing knows very well that although it may be armed to the teeth with the most effective and destructive fire-power and other destructive gizmo, world opinion, however, is something it has yet to win over. And that is something which is easier said than done. Flushed with every single currency- be it the euro or the dollar- it may throw hard cash at those in dire need of it, whether in the greatest democracy in the world, or the heavily indebted Greece. Will such acts of charity, be able to buy it durable peace ? or make its position on the South China Sea acceptable to any reasonable and civilised power in the world ? Even the most naive of the Chinese policy-makers know the answer. The South China Sea is just a front that has been opened up by the wily Chinese to test international reaction to its militant designs for the entire region. While it has its sights permanently fixed on tiny Taiwan across the Straits as well as a number of other small islands in the region, it has cooked up the present controversy so that it is able to assess the strength or otherwise of the reaction that would be generated when it embarks on the real and ultimate game – that of gobbling up the tiny nation of Taiwan ! It is here that American diplomacy and policy-makers face their sternest test. While not getting involved in any potential conflict in the region against China, will they be able to secure and strengthen their strategic positions such as their military bases, fuelling stations, and other things that stand in the way of the enemy securing a victory against it in a future clash of arms !

Kimbo Y. Laurel

May 16, 2012 at 2:59 pm

The Diplomat Website becomes a crazy nationalist propaganda from different states yet it is fun to join because I like to take part of the conversation.
In war, do not expect the states to fight fair but winning the war is determined by the political will, moral justification and cunning intelligences. I know the Philippines will not win conventionally against PROC but the Philippines can win the war against the PROC through great diplomacy and combined support from different state. Remember no state wish to be subjected by another power even if it stacks against it.

Gustav Schmoller

May 17, 2012 at 4:15 am

Hmmmm…. overwhelming might? Come on. This reads more like a warning to the Philippines and Chinese propaganda than anything else with the none-too-subtle implication that resistance will lead the Philippines to suffer the fate of Melos. This is ridiculous. Where are China’s aircraft carriers? Should anyone be afraid of the world’s noisiest submarines? The Philippines needs to stand its ground, and prepare itself to practice cheap asymmetric warfare with missiles, sea mines and South Korean or American submarines. The Philippines have a booming economy and will only grow wealthier with time: Manila has both time and a favorable military balance on its side, regardless of the musings of Mr. Holmes.

LiberalRepublican3six

May 17, 2012 at 5:34 am

Some people just don’t understand the gravity of the dispute.

If China proceeds to dislodge Filipino presence at the shoal by force, and if the Philippines loses the shoal without the aid of its neighbors and allies, the Philippine’s defeat would give credence to China’s 9-dash claim.

The South China sea, from which a third of the world’s shipping passes, would belong to one nation.

Tissue Paper

tom

May 17, 2012 at 8:23 am

China now, think they are supper power and can do whatever they want to. They dont look at Internation rule, whatever! In fact, china already did, look at taipet. They are Supper greeding. want take everything for free. South east asia countries must joint together fight for the right. and the South china sea must change name: to South East Asia Sea. South East Asia Sea is the correct name for it, because this sea surround by South East Asia Countries. not china alone.

Observer

Latest news – bully china just issued an order of fishing ban in the East Sea. LOL, are they for real or are they dreaming and that pathetic?

Can you imagine that a person would stand on a public street and in front of everyone and yell “This street is all mine, none of you can pass by without my approval”? How pathetic is that?

Before any of chinese posters try to say “but but but we just want to save the fishes from over fishing” let use Google and look up “china pollution pictures”. See how dirty china is? Bully china and chinese could treat their own country like that, can you imagine how they would treat the rest of the world?

Cyrus

May 17, 2012 at 11:15 am

If US does not interfere if war breaks out between Philippines and China then it needs to prepare itself for it’s lost of prestige in East and South East Asia as other Asian states scramble and rebuke the US.

Cyrus

No Means No

May 18, 2012 at 4:10 am

China KNOWS it does not own Scarborough Shoal. That is the reason why there is only a standoff with the Philippines, and why the Philippine ships are still afloat. If the Philippine Navy had sent an armed ship just off the coast of Hainan Island instead of Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese Navy (PLAN) would have reduced it to scrap metal in just a few seconds, bombed Manila to the ground, and the Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations would have thrown a tantrum! Instead China has refused to fire the first shot and has refused to bring the matter to the UN, which China is a PERMANENT member of. I am sure Chinese propaganda would describe this as “Chinese Goodwill” but it just shows how weak China’s LEGAL claim to Scarborough Shoal really is.

a

Major Lowen Gil Marquez, Phil Army

May 18, 2012 at 1:32 pm

The Scaborough Shoal were belong to the PHILIPPINES and it is inside the territory of the Province of Zambales and it is also located at the upper North of WESTERN PHILIPPINE SEA. According to Law of UNCLOS of the United Nation herein the Spratley Island and Scarborough Shoal were under and inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines all located at the Western Philippine Sea. The Scarborough Shoal were very near in the beach line of ZAMBALES province even the Banca or a small UN-motor boat wherein a just fisherman can reach the Scarborough Shoal by using only a wooden paddle in proceeding thereat the Philippine SCARBOROUGH Shoal. just common sense…

The legality and common sense when you look the map of the Philippine and you may sea the SCARBOROUGH Shoal then you may laugh on the craziness of the Chinese communist on their Chinese communist invasion action,its like a story of two houses where the house number 1 owned by the Chinese 1 kilometer apart from the house of the Pilipino as a house number TWO, Which the Chinese communist invaded a lot inside and at the door step of the house number Two which is owned by the Pilipino..

The Chinese communist is Godless, Lawless and wanted to invade South East Asia, Asia and tomorrow the World…

Even we are mismatch on their military, I myself and Alone willing to face those 5,000,000 Chinese Communist military and Die for the HONOR, FREEDOM and PEACE interest of my country and our future generation and my starting point in protecting the whole humanity in the future which is the future plan of the Chinese of a hegemonic action in the World.. at the future…

LONG LIVE THE PHILIPPINES…. MABUHAY ANG PILIPINAS AND BAYAN KONG MAHAL…

thewind

malampaya

May 18, 2012 at 4:39 pm

@johnchang,
The “BULLY-CHINESE” knows they will not win because of its very weak claims, why they are afraid to UNCLOS? Instead, the’re preferred to use their ancient BULLY behavior against smaller helpless neighbors. “SHAME ON YOU”

Truly PINOY

May 20, 2012 at 1:21 pm

Philippines is not part of China! Chinese are too greedy and stupid, how dare you claim the Philippines as part of your country. If Philippines is China’s part why are you just claiming today? For how many years ago China just claiming Philippines as their part. When world war 2, Spanish era arises where is China when Philippines is fighting for its Independence? Think first before you comment!!!!

Errol T

WeDieForOurCountry

June 30, 2012 at 8:24 am

lol? Do you really believe that China owns Philippines? OMG…. why do we have different faces? our language is farlly diferrent. Our language is based on Malays and not Chinese. In fact, China is not the one who came here first, if it yes, then we became chinks now. India, Africa, Malay, Arab, and Indo came here first actually so your basis is really stupid. We don’t want war, instead we will continue to protest our claim to International law, and seek for ally to help us when China shoot their guns, but one thing we only sure, we will protect and defend what we have and to kill or to be killed for the honor of our country.

i am FILIPINO

Fed up with PRC Chinese rhetorics

May 20, 2012 at 8:00 pm

@ what’s your name “Indefatigable Li”?

Philippines belong to China?, Taiwan maybe but it has been an independent state or country for nearly 60 years. While the Philippines was never under Chinese rule. You must be dreaming or hallucinating. What is your proof that the Philippines belong to China. Can it hold up against the International Rule of Law?

ACT

May 21, 2012 at 1:53 pm

and while the fires of those calling for war and echoing ultra-nationalistic sentiments rage online, the reality is that barring some colossal mistake, the issue has largely cooled off on the diplomatic front….

jijone

E.Antonio

May 26, 2012 at 8:22 am

It is one mistake USA/European/Middle eastern and Japan move when they gave all the technology and business to China that made it now a super power specially in Asia.They forget to share some business and technology to some poor country in Asia like Philippines at least the balance of power will still be stable.And now that the US has already having second thought of controlling china concerning Spratly islands because they too need money from china.Yes Chinese are becoming more arrogant bullying countries like the Philippines a very 1 long standing US allies.Philippines where do We go from here.

thewind

I have been reading every comment here…it is sad, all people are brothers and sisters, yet we still fight over rocks….

As long as we are divided up into races, nations, religions etc… there will be war!

As a Natve American…….I think my people know what it feels like to be crushed by a superior force, however, dying is ok…..it is living without any dignity that is hard.

My woman is in Cebu….let me be clear, I would rather fight and die for Filipinos that actually stand for something than fight and die for American Bankers who want to rule the world….

I laugh at you people who still don’t understand that the problem is not the “Chinese”……it isn’t even their gov. it is the Central Bankers who run this world! The win no matter what, they always win! War is great for bankers..

The very same Bankers RULE China and the U.S.A.

But for some reason, the Philippines tries very hard to do the right thing as a people, they seem to actually care about what is right….and are willing to fight for it!

Sure the Philippines has so much corruption…..lawlessness……yet, most of the people try…..

China is a puppet of the New World Order just like Europe and the U.S.

Sometimes you simply have to fight…..even if it is with sticks and stones against missiles…..this in one of those times.

Anyone that thinks the Filipinos will back down to China, doesn’t know much about Filipinos……they don’t ask for much, but Respect is one thing they will fight and die for as a whole Nation!

I will fight with them if that happens, they are not invading anyone, they simply are trying to survive without handouts with what they have, in my little world that is worth admiration and worth fighting for since America has already lost it…….

aloha nui

ua mau ke ea o ka aina i ka pono……..(the life of the land is perpetuated in righteousness)……think about it!

sushime

vince

June 18, 2012 at 6:26 pm

one thing I can assure you.. we will never back down. we will stand our ground.
your historical claims are baseless, and one could create such lies.
why dont your government failed to participate in the ICJ?

Alura

September 9, 2012 at 1:50 pm

I am filipino. 18 year old. i really love my country especially i grew up there. i’m now here in America. I joines US Marine corps, hoping to help my homeland as china invaded my country. I swear china. I am ready sacrifice my life for my country. Your greediness will put you down someday, China government if you ever read my comment, please put this on your mind, please act like a human !

esterlito ruiras

jojorendon

October 29, 2012 at 3:05 pm

Oh my, guyz why can’t we think of peace! How nice to feel that even you are on your country you may feel peace and no nervous at all especially on our sleeps ‘til we woke-up. When every neighboring country has a bilateral peace agreement earth is a perfect place to live rather than to think that our neighbors ARE BIG AND POWERFUL or WE ARE SMALL, BRAINY AND EQUIPPED WITH TACTICS. We should not allow over self decisiveness covers ourselves. Let us just work together and give our children, young brothers and young sisters a better future. Thinking of who is really the most powerful will not help. Let us stop bickering and start thinking on how to help our mother nature, throw away destructive plans. Have peace to all of you!

Cronqvist

November 2, 2012 at 6:37 am

Well afterall US and China is already having a Psychological Warfare same with the Philippines but Philippines has yet to take up a Psychological Warfare against China.. US is attacking China via Times Magazine .. and China is using the instability that US created.. well people from all over the world aren’t that idiot to believe China though.. China can fool it’s own people but not the other people beyond her reach.. If war she wants then will take up arms with our lives upon it

The Truth

November 18, 2012 at 12:15 am

Careful with what you said… US has not intended to go to war… Even if it does, what can it do after China’s ally N. Korea has invented space missile to shoot US military satellites down… USA greatly depended on it’s satellites… And what can it’s aircraft carrier do also when China has invented anti-aircraft carrier missile which can destroy one aircraft carrier in a single blow… But whatever, Philippines government has become an idiot by trusting that the US would actually back them in the war… They probably only wanted to make more enemies for China… And Philippines alone would not be able to face China(that’s the truth)…

Errol

November 22, 2012 at 6:22 am

The paper makes a compelling case, and neatly pops the bubble where pro-Beijing commenters contend that the Treaty of Paris didn’t cover Scarborough Shoal. It turns out that the US State Department actually did consider it, owing to the fact that the Spanish colonial government had been exercising its duties on said shoal. And the fact that Beijing insists that it’s an island despite the fact it’s a group of rocks that stick out during high tide.

The maximum of the Chinese empire’s reach, where it considered the Sultanate of Sulu as a tributary and hence part of the empire is incomplete though. Sabah, w/c is in northern Borneo, was part of the Sultanate. Something Malaysians sometimes worry about, and something that China ignored. Goes to show how unclear their ideas of borders are.

China’ll ignore the arguments though. For Beijing, it has the firepower, and will claim whatever it wants. If CPC officials ignore their own laws to exploit their people, how much for for laws that they did not make?

php

November 22, 2012 at 3:27 am

people all over the world just have to realize that once China conquers Philippines it would be a lot easier for them to conquer others, the whole South East Asia, Japan and South Koroea.then next thing we know it will conquer the pacific ..that’s why China doesn’t want Philippines to speak about this territorial issue internationally, they just want between China and Philippines, China will instigate Philippines so that the Philippines will be the first one to lit the fire.China will piss the world off if theyre the first one to ignite the fire..with America accusing China as “Currency Manipulator” according to Gov. Romney..if it’s true, then the world could put an economic embargo to China putting them back to its own place. China is the only one who has the economy able to campaign for a war and its allies like Russia, Iran, N Korea , could only supply. If the whole South East Asia, Japan, S. Korea and even US and all its allies put economic sanctions to China starting now..then China wont last in a war..once they’ve round out of money China will be paralyzed..I just hope that the whole world would realize this…once they occupy Philippines, it will be a chain reaction…from SE ASIA, to JAPAN next their allies, Russia, Iran, N Korea and etc will be awarded for their help and soon the world would be in hands of communists…think about it…how bad we need our FREEDOM?

php

November 22, 2012 at 3:41 am

China will deny ….its world domination…not everyone is stupid…just BE A MAN, HAVE SOME DIGNITY AND SHOW TO THE WORLD WHAT YOU (CHINESE) REALLY ARE….STOP THE INSTIGATION only guys with small dicks does that. China just been waiting for this for a very long time…they this is their moment to change history…but they’re wrong..People all over the world…start doing now bfore its too late….stop buying, using, endorsing or selling any made products mad e in China….let us all put them back to its place. Think about it before its too late

php

November 22, 2012 at 4:17 am

if what Gov. Romney said about China being a CURRENCY MANIPULATOR is true then China can be placed in ECONOMIC EMBARGO…this would paralyze their economy making China wont last long in a war…China is just instigating Philippines to ignite the fire first. If Philippines will start the war it will show less of China wanting a world domination. The world will see it as Philippines being stupid. That’s why China doesn’t want the territory issue to be discussed with other nation or internationally, so that the world would not think any of China’s hidden agenda….world domination..think of it..once China occupies Philippines, it will give a boost to China’s military spreading its teritory…soon it would be easier for China to conquer all South East Asia, Japan, South Korea and next thing we know the Pacific..once China have gain control of the whole Far East…they will gain control to the whole worlds economy..China has been waiting for this moment where the USA economy is low and has debts to China…its true that China is a sleeping giant…but the world can stop this..put economic embargo to China, refuse to have business with them, if being CURRENCY MANIPULATOR is true why pay debts?, China’s allies could only supply weapons but without money to support, China wont last to a war…The world needs to think…if we love freedom then we cant let any communism takes over the world.