April 26, 2011

Fangraphs on John Danks and Alex Rios

Still just 26, [John] Danks has always been considered an above-average starter, but his strikeout rate has always prevented him from being elite. While a career 7.06 K/9 isn’t a bad thing, it’s not exceptional either. This season, Danks is fooling hitters more than ever. Through 33.0 innings pitched, Danks has struck out a batter per inning. Typically, we would attribute that large of a jump to luck or blame it on small sample size, but Danks has made some adjustments this season that may allow him to sustain his success. …

The big culprit in Rios’ case is that he’s falling behind in counts from pitch one and having trouble from there: In 48 plate appearances in which he faced an 0-1 count, [Alex] Rios has managed just 6 hits while striking out 12 times. But his first-pitch strike percentage (63.7%) is his highest ever by a good margin, so it stands to reason that as that tapers off, he’ll start seeing more hitter’s counts, giving him more opportunities to be aggressive rather than defensive. …