2011-11-22

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

San Francisco's big win puts them back on top of the NFL, and Houston stays atop the AFC during a bye week with Baltimore's narrow win. There's been one more elimination, as the Rams can no longer win the NFC West at 2-8. One flaw in this particular system may be that it does not take into account the strength of opponents, only the scores of the games. So San Francisco's big win this week against the Cardinals moves them ahead of Green Bay, who beat a slightly better team. In fact, even if Green Bay had beaten another 9-0 team by the same score, the results would be the same. Even so, I'll stick to my guns and say as of now San Francisco is my Superbowl pick.

TEAM

Record

Div

Plyff

WC

Qtr

Semi

Champ

SF

9-1

99.820

99.991

99.261

62.835

35.378

20.436

GB

10-0

93.292

98.344

96.548

60.368

32.090

18.024

HOU

7-3

97.718

98.858

84.655

50.979

29.834

15.615

BAL

7-3

63.111

91.282

78.384

44.106

22.708

10.903

NE

7-3

95.935

98.622

84.180

45.886

23.926

11.417

DET

7-3

4.504

47.264

30.027

13.119

6.108

2.998

NO

7-3

83.661

93.555

56.658

24.071

11.316

5.549

CHI

7-3

2.205

53.486

31.895

12.919

5.711

2.665

PIT

7-3

28.613

76.696

56.006

25.362

11.142

4.599

CIN

6-4

8.204

30.712

20.349

8.947

3.931

1.597

PHI

4-6

14.813

17.977

7.831

2.638

0.995

0.400

ATL

6-4

16.057

63.257

27.486

9.172

3.445

1.373

NYJ

5-5

1.937

36.551

14.601

5.338

2.070

0.718

TEN

5-5

2.243

27.403

10.650

3.901

1.504

0.517

MIA

3-7

0.127

1.825

0.679

0.243

0.093

0.032

DAL

5-5

40.688

45.063

18.300

5.588

1.917

0.705

NYG

6-4

44.225

52.100

20.799

6.118

2.018

0.715

SEA

5-5

0.180

26.177

10.470

3.033

0.990

0.346

BUF

5-5

2.002

20.849

7.605

2.430

0.821

0.247

OAK

6-4

54.989

62.541

24.410

7.645

2.460

0.730

SD

4-6

13.781

16.311

5.827

1.786

0.566

0.165

DEN

5-5

29.101

35.351

11.950

3.244

0.916

0.236

ARI

3-7

0.000

0.508

0.154

0.034

0.009

0.002

CAR

2-8

0.004

0.015

0.005

0.001

0.000

0.000

WAS

3-7

0.274

0.486

0.139

0.029

0.007

0.002

CLE

4-6

0.072

0.411

0.145

0.035

0.009

0.002

MIN

2-8

-

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

JAC

3-7

0.038

0.201

0.047

0.011

0.003

0.001

TB

4-6

0.277

1.778

0.429

0.076

0.016

0.003

KC

4-6

2.129

2.389

0.510

0.088

0.016

0.003

STL

2-8

-

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

IND

0-10

-

-

-

-

-

-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)