As
we emerge from the primordial ooze of the random-roller swamp, and set foot on the dry
land of Precision-Shooting, Signature-Numbers determine whether we will walk upright,
directly into the profit-zone; or if well endlessly crawl around blindly sniffing
and grubbing for a few edible crumbs as the reward for all of our evolutionary
advancement.

Just
as in evolution, there are natural occurrences that bend, shape, interrupt, change and
redirect our progress.Likewise, our
dicesetting evolution is not a straight-line progression.Rather, it is organic in its development, and the growth-curve often
meanders way off course.

As
Precision-Shooters, we are always trying to improve the various advantage-play aspects of
our game, and to keep our forward progress on-track.

We
determine what our power-numbers are, and how much better they are over
random.Then, based on our
evolving skills, those Signature-Numbers are used to largely determine the strength
and validity of the bets that we SHOULD be making, instead of the hunch, superstition, and
premonition betting that currently pervades the thought-process of the bets that we ARE
making.

Gamblers,
(as opposed to advantage-play Precision-Shooters) all too often hitch their bankroll-wagon
to hope and fear instead of relying on the solid
foundation of an ever-improving skill-set.

Signature-Numbers
help us make the shift from being mere gamblers, into being bona-fide advantage-players.

In
a nutshell, the whole idea is to determine which S-Ns are most dominant, and then
fully exploit them through betting-methods that are carefully tailored to our current
dice-shooting skills.

The
Biggest Complaint That I Hear

from
aspiring Precision-Shooters,
is that, when their game is on, they can rake in tons of money; yet when their
shooting is off, they cant buy a win to save their lives.

The
frustration of good wins that are offset by equal or larger bad losses is caused by the
volatility that marks the trail of a dicesetters evolving progress.Although weve already covered the
multi-stages of development youll go through on your way to consistent profitability
in myHow Good Is Your Precision Shooting?
article; it is worth taking a fresh view at the entire subject from a slightly different
perspective.

Reducing
Volatility

There
are two schools of thought, in terms of how to reduce the whip-saw volatility that your
bankroll goes through in the early to mid-stages of dice-setting evolution and
development.

The
first one teaches that you bet small at the beginning of a hand, and if things start to
look good, you simply press your bets every second or third hit.In fact, some players look for just one hit on any
of their bets before calling everything Off or down.

This
method works best when you are just starting out and when steady rolling is more of a
dream than a reality.It certainly minimizes
risk, and it also minimizes stress, since your money is at risk for a very short period of
time. Another big plus is that the amount of money at risk is pretty much as low as you
can go and still be able to say that you are in fact, still wagering to any significant
degree.

The
other school of thought, holds that an initial large wager on your Top Three or Four
Signature Numbers, followed by a steep regression (which locks in a quick guaranteed
profit), followed by conservative pressing (IF the hand continues beyond a roll or
two) will get the job done with minimal risk and a high degree of success.

In
either case, the central idea is to reduce volatility, yet lock up an early profit.

My
preference is the steep regression route; but ONLY when your shooting has become
consistent enough for you to determine an actual and tangible advantage with your most
dominant Signature Numbers.Until that point,
a low and slow betting method probably best suits nearly everyones needs.

Again,
I want you to keep in mind that Precision-Shooting is an evolutionary process where overnightsuccess rarely happens, nor does profit become consistently sustainable right
away. Rather, the process is slow, frustrating, and sometimes agonizing but through
this series of articles, Im trying to make it as painless and inexpensive as
possible.

Ill
remind you again.

ØYou
need to establish consistency with your shooting BEFORE you
can expect any consistency with your profit.

ØYou
have to continually adjust and re-evaluate your betting-methods to best suit your
ever-changing skills.

MORE
About Reduced Volatility

A
casual observer would quickly point out that a quick 7-Out before you have a chance to
regress your bets (and lock in a profit) will spell a quick and substantial loss for any
Place-bets that youve wagered on your Top Three or Four Signature-Numbers.

That
is correct.

However,
I want to show you how Steep Regressions actually REDUCE volatility even when you
factor those quick-Outs into the calculation.

Before
I begin, Ill quickly add that all of this assumes that you have done your homework,
and you have established and confirmed that you indeed do have a substantial
dominance over the house-edge with your Signature Numbers.If you havent put in the effort, nor established this most basic of
baseline valuations; then all is for naught, and your losses will most certainly be
equal to or greater than a random-rollers chances in the same situation.

PLEASE
do not take that advice lightly.

It
is YOUR money that we are talking about, and Im trying to help you KEEP IT, not
WASTE IT.

Further
to that, I want to add that Regression-betting DOES NOT reduce house-edge (your
Precision-Shooting takes care of that).Rather,
Regression-betting reduces volatility by lessening the unpredictability, and moderating
the whiplash of up-and-down wins and losses.In
other words, it flattens out the revenue-curve so that you reach profit much faster, and
with much more frequency.Likewise, your
losses are lower, and they occur less frequently.

Heres
why:

The
Dollars-Risked versus the Rolls-Needed-For-Profit is lower with
Regression-betting when compared against Flat-betting.

Let
me explain that a little further.

If
you make same-bet, no-press, no-regression Place-wager flat-bets on the Inside Numbers (5,
6, 8, and 9), it will take at least three hits on any of them BEFORE they are NEARLY paid
for.

Now
assuming that your tossing skills are still improving, and your current SRR is in the
6.5:1 range, you MAY get to the break-even point on a lot of hands with the flat-bets I
just mentioned; but in most cases, youll have a hard time breaking into
profitability with them simply because an SRR of 6.5:1 may not be enough for sustained
profit when using the flat-bet method.

The
reason it falls short, is because, just as you are about to break through that
profit-barrier, your Place-bets and your PL-bets are unceremoniously swept away by a 7-Out
at the most crucial pre-profit point.Remember
that your SRR includes all numbers, not just Box-numbers, so careful consideration has to
be given to how many of the bets that you make most often will be hit BEFORE your average
6.5-rolls-before-the-7-shows-up will get paid.

Heres
the simple math.

The
flat-bettor (on a $5 table) will need to have $22 Place-bet on the Inside Numbers for at
least four rolls before reaching profit.So
four rolls times $22 equals $88 worth of exposure.Yes,
you can only lose $22 at any given time, but you need at least four kicks at the
can before you can expect any net-profit.That
means that your money needs to be exposed to a 7-Out for at least four paying-hits before
you reach the profit zone.

If
on the other hand, you decide to do a Steep Regression bet, you could START with $88
Inside ($24 each on the 6 & 8, and $20 each on the 5 & 9), and only need ONE HIT
before hitting the profit zone.One roll
versus four rolls can mean a big difference to an up and coming dicesetter.While $88 is a lot more money than the twenty-two
bucks that the flat-bettor has out there; we are only looking for ONE hit (not four)
before we reach profit and immediately regress our Inside action down to $22.

One
roll versus four rolls to reach profitability really shows its true value to the
Precision-Shooter who is still ironing out the kinks in his throwing; yet is skilled
enough and knowledgeable enough to know where his current strengths and opportunities lay.

With
flat betting you actually need be MORE skilled than someone using
regression-betting.

ØSimply
put, by using a Steep Regression on your top three or four Signature-Numbers, it means
that you don't need as many paying-rolls before you are into a profit.That not only holds a lot of attraction to
ever-improving dicesetters, but to seasoned pros as well.

Let
me add a slightly different point of view for a Place-bet converted into a Come-bet
approach to the game.

ØIf
you combine a Steep Regression on your Place-bets and combine it with a table-minimum
Come-bet with escalating-Odds (where you steadily increase the amount of Odds on your
traveled Come-bets as your hand progresses), and,

ØThe
Odds money that you cap your Come-bets with is actually paid for by your Place-bet
"winnings" and does not come from your chip rail, and,

ØYour
steadily increased Odds amounts are fueled by income that is generated by each subsequent
hit on the previous Come-bet, then,

ØYou
can safely build up your bets on the Signature Numbers that are strongest during your
current hand, without requiring you to add any money that hasnt already been earned
by this particular hand.

ØBy
employing a Steep Regression, and locking in an early profit, yet using the steady flow of
income off of your current bets to fuel additional Odds on the Come-numbers that are
CURRENTLY hitting; you severely limit your losses, yet the steam from each subsequent
Come-bet hit fuels bigger wins by way of those escalating Odds.

Back
on Track

This
brings us right back on center with the whole concept, and the entire reason behind this
entire series.That is, you have to determine
what your Signature Numbers actually are, BEFORE you start making wagers all over
the layout.Once you determine WHAT
they are, you can decide WHEN to bet on them, and HOW to take maximum
advantage of them when they are hitting.

Remember,
we are trying to bring some precision to our BETTING as well as to our SHOOTING.

This
article completes the The When, Where, Why, What...
series, but it doesnt mean that we are finished with Signature Numbers.In the future, well be looking at exactly
how you can gauge the strength of your dominant numbers to determine WHAT PORTION
your bankroll can affordably and SAFELY be wagered on them.Until then,