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The Outlook

Updated Dec. 31, 2001 12:01 a.m. ET

The last great period of globalization ended effectively in 1914, when an act of violence -- the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo -- touched off World War I. More than a half-century passed before cross-border trade and investment would again play such a prominent role in the global economy.

After the Sept. 11 attacks, some economists worried that the year 2001 would go down in history as another high-water mark in an era of globalization. Recession, security concerns at home and resentment abroad seemed...