Former University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse (D) took a step closer to becoming the consensus Democrat to succeed Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder). Mr. Polis is leaving the House to run for Governor, leaving a safely Democratic seat open in his wake. Yesterday, Nederland Mayor Kristopher Larsen announced that he is ending his congressional quest. This leaves Mr. Neguse with only former Boulder County Democratic Party chairman Mark Williams standing between he and the Democratic nomination. Winning the June party primary is tantamount to capturing the seat in November.

In anticipation of the state’s Republican Assembly conclave scheduled for March 31st, candidates are either declaring that they will enter the qualification process or access the ballot via petition signatures. At the Assembly, a candidate must receive at least 30% of the delegate vote to advance to the primary. For the 5th District, the 2018 signature requirement is 1,000 valid registered Republican signatures. Rep. Douglas Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) and former US Senate candidate Darryl Glenn have already submitted petition signatures. State Sen. Owen Hill (R-Colorado Springs) will enter the Assembly process.

In 2016, Rep. Lamborn was again forced to a primary from the district Assembly. With Mr. Glenn already qualifying for the ballot, another nomination campaign for the safely Republican district is now assured. Rep. Lamborn was first elected to the House in 2006. This will be the fourth consecutive election in which he has faced a primary challenge. The Congressman’s winning percentages from the three past primaries are: 61.7, 52.6, and 68.0%.

Magellan Strategies, conducting an independent poll of the Colorado Republican gubernatorial primary (2/26-27; 647 likely Republican primary voters via automated telephonic device), finds state Treasurer Walker Stapleton taking the lead over Attorney General Cynthia Coffman and two others. According to the results, Mr. Stapleton holds 26% of the Republican primary vote, followed by AG Coffman’s 13%. Investment banker Doug Robinson, nephew of former presidential nominee and current US Senate candidate Mitt Romney, has 8%, while former state Rep. Victor Mitchell (R-Castle Rock) registers 5% preference.

Surprisingly, within her own party’s base respondents Ms. Coffman has a slightly upside down favorability index. According to Magellan, she records a 20:21% positive to negative rating. Mr. Stapleton, on the other hand, registers a 33:13% favorability ratio.

Hampered by poor fundraising receipts, former US Representative, gubernatorial, and presidential candidate Tom Tancredo (R) announced yesterday that he is ending his 2018 open seat race for the Centennial State’s top political position. Mr. Tancredo was also faring poorly in hypothetical general election pairings with Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder), commonly viewed as the Democratic front-runner. Remaining in the GOP race are Attorney General Cynthia Coffman and state Treasurer Walker Stephenson, among many others. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Yesterday, Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) announced that she is joining the open Governor’s campaign. Now, we may soon see a related move soon coming from another candidate. With Ms. Coffman vacating the Attorney General’s position, Arapahoe Region District Attorney George Brauchler (R), currently a gubernatorial candidate, may switch out of the Governor’s race and re-emerge in the AG’s campaign. There is no confirmation of the move from the Brauchler camp, but his staff spokespeople have stopped denying that he will switch. The purported move would strengthen the Republican ticket for both offices.

First-term Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R), wife of US Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora), announced that she is joining the open Governor’s campaign. The move is a bit of a surprise. Ms. Coffman is always mentioned as a candidate, but the prevailing political wisdom suggested that she would ultimately seek re-election to her current position. Possibly former US Representative and 2008 presidential candidate Tom Tancredo’s (R-Littleton) entry into the race changes the picture to the degree that Ms. Coffman believes the primary electorate would turn to her as the alternative candidate instead of Arapahoe region District Attorney George Brauchler (R). The latter man announced his candidacy months ago. Democrats will likely have a primary battle between US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne. The general election is expected to be highly competitive.

Yesterday, former five-term Colorado Congressman, 2008 presidential candidate, and twice failed gubernatorial contender, once as the nominee of the Constitution Party, announced that he will return to the Republican Party and again run for Governor. He joins a large GOP primary field that features state Treasurer Walker Stapleton and Arapahoe area District Attorney George Brauchler. Democrats are favored to hold the seat being vacated by term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). The party’s early leaders are US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne.

State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R), a distant relative of the Bush family, just announced that he is entering the open Governor’s race next year. The Centennial State Treasurer will join Arapahoe County area prosecuting attorney George Brauchler as the main Republican contenders to-date. Mr. Stapleton has been raising money for a state Super PAC prior to his announcement, funds that will undoubtedly go toward assisting his future gubernatorial campaign, so his effort is not starting from ground zero. Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne lead a crowded Democratic field. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The eventual Democratic nominee will begin the general election in the favorite’s position.

Former five-term Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Littleton), who exited the House to twice run unsuccessfully for Governor and once for President, is eying a potential return to elective politics. Mr. Tancredo says the chances of him entering the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary are now about 50/50, which is a greater number than before.

Arapahoe County regional prosecutor George Brauchler is the leading Republican candidate to date. Nine Democrats have announced their candidacies, including Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne and US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder). The latter two contenders top the large intra-party field. This general election will likely be a toss-up affair with major redistricting overtones for the party that captures the Centennial State’s Governor’s mansion. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

As expected, Colorado Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne (D) officially entered the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She faces US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder), former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston, and business owner Noel Ginsburg as major Democratic opponents. George Brauchler, the 18th Judicial District Attorney (Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln Counties), is the most prominent Republican in the race. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The general election could become a toss-up campaign.