We carried out this two-year project to develop a decision support system for the regional safety strategies toward the reduction of earthquake casualties. We developed a universal model, which is applicable to disasters in any part of the world, for the estimation of deaths and injuries in an earthquake. In doing this, we conducted data gathering through a series of field survey and development of a computer model.We established a partnership with a research group in the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom to exchange knowledge and material needed for the development.In the first year, we carried out :1. General planning for the co-operative project : The principal investigator visited the University of Cambridge to develop a general framework for the co-operative research.2. Three field investigations : We visited China to collect the damage and reconstruction data of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Similar effort was done in the affected areas of the 1988 Armenia earthquake and th
… Moree 1983 Erzurm, Turkey earthquake.3. Development of general framework for the assessment model : We figured out occupants deaths in a collapsed building and their rescue process as a time related event and proposed it as a general framework of casualty assessment model.In the second year we carried out :1. Follow-up survey in China : we visited Tangshan to extend our knowledge and material. We gathered detailed data on the rescue activities in the Tangshan earthquake and the structural quality of existing buildings.2. Cooperative effort toward a building-damage model : A co-investigator of Japan side visited the Cambridge group for the development of a building-collapse model, which is to be an essential part of the entire model.3. Analysis of damage and recovery data : We continued to analyze the data on the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, the 1988 Armenia earthquake, and the 1983 Erzurm earthquake.4. Data gathering on earthquakes in Japan : We collected the damage and reconstruction data of destructive earthquakes in Japan. We included the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 1948 Fukui earthquake.5. Development of assessment models : We, first, developed two detailed frameworks for 1) a simple model applicable to post-event, rapid estimation and 2) a comprehensive model applicable to detailed evaluation of regional safety and the development of long-term strategy for the enhancement of regional safety. For the simple model, we completed a prototype and tested its performance accuracy. For the comprehensive model, we developed some element-model including ones for the description of : 1) building collapse, 2) deterioration of health status of trapped victims, and 3) rescue process. Less