Real direct tourism output increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2007, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real direct tourism output increased 7.4 percent (revised). Growth in transportation output remained strong in the first quarter; growth decelerated in the three other broad tourism output categories. By comparison, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 0.6 percent (preliminary) in the first quarter of 2007 and 2.5 percent (final) in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Direct tourism employment rose a strong 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 (the most recent period for which data are available), after growing 1.0 percent in the third quarter of 2006. The fourth quarter acceleration was widespread. By comparison, overall U.S. employment grew 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter and 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2006.

Other highlights from this release include:

Passenger air transportation grew 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2007 following growth of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 (revised).

Traveler accommodations rose just 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2007 after surging 16.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 (revised).

Prices for tourism goods and services turned up, increasing 3.4 percent in the first quarter of 2007 after decreasing 5.9 percent (revised) in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Component Prices of Direct Tourism Output.
Prices for traveler accommodations increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2007, the sixth straight quarter of price growth. Prices for passenger air transportation increased just 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2007. In the fourth quarter, passenger air transportation prices declined at an annual rate of 8.3 percent.

Components of Direct Tourism Employment.
Employment in the traveler accommodations industry grew 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 (the latest period for which data are available). This is the largest increase since the fourth quarter of 1999 and the fourth continuous quarter of growth in employment in this industry. Employment in the air transportation services industry turned up, increasing 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 following seven straight quarters of decline.

Total Tourism-Related Output. In the first quarter of 2007, total current-dollar tourism-related output of $1.3 trillion consisted of $717.9 billion of direct tourism output – output of goods and services sold directly to visitors and $546.4 billion of indirect tourism-related output – output of goods and services used to produce what visitors buy.

Total Tourism-Related Employment. In the fourth quarter of 2006 (the most recent period for which data are available), total tourism-related employment of 8.6 million consisted of 5.9 million direct tourism jobs – jobs where workers produce goods and services sold directly to visitors and 2.7 million indirect tourism-related jobs – jobs where workers produce goods and services used to produce what visitors buy.

The estimates released today reflect the annual revision to the Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts. All estimates beginning with the first quarter of 1998 are updated and revised to incorporate newly available source data and the following three improvements:

The coverage of traveler accommodations has been broadened to include the value of vacation home rentals.

The methodology used to estimate the consumption of gasoline by travel and tourism activity has been improved.

The treatment of commissions on foreign (inbound) travel and tourism has been made consistent with the treatment of
commissions on outbound travel and tourism.

For more information see the June 2007 Survey of Current Business, Paul V. Kern and Edward A. Kocis, “U.S. Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts For 1998-2006.”

Indirect tourism-related output. Indirect tourism-related output comprises all output used as inputs in the process of producing direct tourism output (e.g., toiletries for hotel guests, the various ingredients used to make the meals served airline passengers, and the plastic used to produce souvenir key chains). Indirect tourism-related output is estimated using commodity-by-commodity output multipliers from the Current Industry Analysis Division.

Total tourism-related output. Total tourism-related output is the sum of direct tourism output and indirect tourism-related output.

Direct tourism employment. Direct tourism employment comprises all jobs where the workers are engaged in the production of direct tourism output (e.g., hotel staff, airline pilots, and souvenir sellers).

Indirect tourism-related employment. Indirect tourism-related employment comprises all jobs where the workers are engaged in the production of indirect tourism-related output (e.g., employees of companies that produce toiletries for hotel guests, the various ingredients used to make the meals served airline passengers, and the plastic used to produce souvenir key chains). Indirect tourism-related employment is estimated using industry-by-industry employment multipliers from the Regional Economic Analysis Division.

Total tourism-related employment. Total tourism-related employment is the sum of direct tourism employment and indirect tourism-related employment.

These estimates are from the Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts (TTSAs), which are supported by funding from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The current-price estimates of direct tourism output were derived from BEA’s annual TTSAs (revised in June 2007) and current-dollar quarterly estimates of personal consumption expenditures from the NIPAs. The constant-price estimates of direct tourism output were developed using price indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and constant-price quarterly estimates of personal consumption expenditures from the NIPAs. The estimates of direct tourism employment were derived from the annual TTSAs (revised in June 2007) and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages from BLS. Employment data are available five to six months after the end of the reference quarter.

Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2000) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. Growth in overall U.S. employment is calculated using BLS Total nonfarm employment from Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm#data.

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Next release – Travel and Tourism estimates for second quarter 2007 will be released on Monday, September 24, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

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