Monday, August 31, 2015

Oil: Stephen Schork on the Change in the Market

Sorry about the paucity of posts, reality keeps intruding.
All things being equal, and of course they never are, $50 would be a bit pricey for the immediate supply/demand picture and a dandy spot to get short again. Maybe even a lower entry but see second piece below.

October WTI $48.86 up $3.64.

From CNBC:Famed oil bear loses his growl

Oil expert Stephen Schork has nailed the call on crude all year. He forecast further losses during many developments and labeled a February surge a "dead cat bounce" that would soon fade and allow for oil to eventually fall below $40.

But now, the editor of the widely read "Schork Report" newsletter is changing his tune.
"I did move to neutral from a bearish position in my short term daily buys because of the amount of volatility in the market place that we've seen this past week," Schork said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

"Look, oil does not belong below $40 a barrel," Schork said. U.S. crude recovered a bit and was trading at $44 on Monday.
On one hand, since prices are already "disconnected from reality," there's no reason to believe that they can't possible fall yet lower, perhaps down as far as the $32.40 per barrel seen in the financial crisis, Schork said.

But on the other, the supply and demand picture really ought to bring oil prices higher over the slightly longer-term.

"Twelve months out, we will start to see the pullback in production. Assuming China is not in recession and hasn't pulled the rest of the globe down into recession and we do have economic growth, we could certainly make a case for oil in that $55 to $65 range. I don't think oil is sustainable above that level, but I think the producer can make a living at that $55/$60/$65 area and I think economies can continue to grow at that level. I think that is a fair value," Schork said....MORE

From Fast FT:US oil boom production estimates clipped

A spot of good news for oil bulls: US oil production grew at a slower pace this year than previously forecast.

The Energy Information Administration estimates that output fell by between 40,000 to 130,000 barrels per day in the first five months of the year.

The US pumped 9.3m barrels of oil per day in June, down about 100,000 bpd from a revised May figure, the EIA said using new methodology that expanded its survey programme. This compared with its previous estimates of 9.5m bpd, Mamta Badkar reports in New York....MORE