The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Friday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters, having led by seven points on Thursday.

However, the polls results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage for the president in tipping-point states like Ohio. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama as a modest favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.

Other national polls now show a very slight lead for President Obama on average,

No actually they do not. They all show Romney leading. Some sligtjly, some seriously. Only the Media polls have any good news for Obama. Nate's problem is he wants to selectively cherry pick the polls that validate his personal political opinions. Basically any MEDIA poll should be thrown out right from the start. They are designed to drive headlines, not to find fact. Looking at the professional polling, Obama is in trouble. Nate want to ignore those polls to cling to the polling that tells him what he wants to hear. Hopefully this election will be the end of Nate Silver's media hyped reputation. He has gone WAY out on a limb here. If the professional polling is correct, and he is this far wrong, his career is over.

8
posted on 10/19/2012 7:47:21 PM PDT
by MNJohnnie
(Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)

1. Not enough states have approved the law. If the did it would favor RR because three of the States are California, Ilinois, and Maryland.

2. They may face a constituitonal challenged, which is not clearcut, because state compacts require, per the constitution, approval from Congress. However, the Constituiton allows state to assign electors however they want.

13
posted on 10/19/2012 7:51:42 PM PDT
by Perdogg
(Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)

The New York Times... Now why would I believe anything they say? Come to think of it, I don’t believe anything they say. They are nothing but liberal waste. As a matter of fact, I’m not believing anybody’s poll from now to Nov 6th. I will trust the anger that I feel instead. Screw the polls.

However, the polls results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.

Circular logic.

17
posted on 10/19/2012 7:54:58 PM PDT
by matt1234
(As Obama sowed in the Arab Spring, so he is reaping in the Arab Fall.)

The two most accurate pollsters in 2008 were Pew and Rasmussen. Pew had likely voters 49% R, 45% O after the first debate. Rasmussen has it tied at 48% today.

Gallup has been polling presidential elections since FDR.

Do you weight these polls more heavily, or the same as a poll by an ex-Catholic college in Poughkeepsie NY using questionable methodology? (Silver seems to be weighing results from Poughkeepsie more heavily.)

18
posted on 10/19/2012 7:55:43 PM PDT
by Sooth2222
("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)

The poor communists. They just can’t get their heads around the fact that freedom lovers are rejecting them once again. LOL! They’ll get over it. There’s a “utopia” for them somewhere. It’s just not on THIS planet.

21
posted on 10/19/2012 8:02:55 PM PDT
by FlingWingFlyer
(This is America! Being dead is no excuse not to vote!!!)

Look Nate Silver in 2010 ended up predicting the election in most cases but what is hard to find in writing, but I remember, is he changed his October 31st final stats by about a third. Before that he spewed the same crap he is spewing now that promotes his liberal roots being the son of a MSU liberal professor and a mom who is a nut liberal.

27
posted on 10/19/2012 8:15:00 PM PDT
by crosslink
(Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)

First, we are past the point of even watching national polls. They mean nothing at this point. This election is down to 4-6 states.

Secondly, watch the campaigns and what they are doing and where they are going. They both have much better polling and other tracking tools about the state of the race.

Suffolk said a week ago, that VA, NC, and FL were all in Romney’s corner, so they were moving to other states. Now we see that being played out in NC. And the polls in VA and FL are trending pretty strongly Romney.

Of course Obama can’t come out and say they are giving up on FL or VA (or even NC). Because that would cause massive panic in their organizations and with the voters. But the media and the close insiders know what is going on.

To me, they are spending most of their time in OH. Seems to be political ground zero for both campaigns.

I’m not sure. I know Washington State pledges their electoral votes to the popular winner, but I don’t know if that includes having to win the state. From an article in the Olympian they talk of a compact of states which includes Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey. How this plays out this election cycle has got me a little interested.

Last week I was polled by Quinnipiac. Although the poll was mainly concerned with NY matters it did ask "if the election were held today.......etc. now the person who asked the questions on this poll was unmistakably African-American which raises the question-how many white Romney voters felt comfortable telling her their true voting preferences (like me)?

36
posted on 10/19/2012 8:55:37 PM PDT
by Larry381
("Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.")

It is interesting that Gallup is so different than the others. I think it’s because they are not weighting their samples, but letting their likely voter screen drive the results. It seems many of the polls are weighting the samples. I think Rasmussen is weighting it +4 Dem.

One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?

One thing I dont understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?

One main reason was because Zero had a substantial lead among women-which appears to not be the case anymore.

39
posted on 10/19/2012 9:00:12 PM PDT
by Larry381
("Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.")

My recollection was that in 2010 Rasmussen called the historical Republican takeover of congress correctly, but got the margin wrong on some races, particularly in the West. If the worst thing a pollster ever does is get a few races in an off-year election incorrect, I still think that's pretty good. The bottom line is that Rasmussen was still right, and Pelosi appeared to be shocked that she needed to move out of her office.

In effect, Silver is picking off all the poll results he doesn't like, while blowing off all the methodological problems with the ones that he does like. What was it that Mark Twain quoted of Benjamin Disraeli? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The general thought holds for statisticians, too. Wearing a white lab coat doesn't turn anyone into a scientist.

43
posted on 10/20/2012 4:08:25 AM PDT
by Sooth2222
("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)

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