Monday, July 31, 2017

Staunton, July 31 – Fearful that
Moscow might use the Zapad 2017 exercises to stage one or another kind of
“provocation,” the Belarusian government is seeking to forestall that by
promoting transparency through the invitation of as many international
observers as possible, according to two Minsk analysts.

Moscow has already dispatched to
Belarus equipment and personnel to take part in the September military exercises
known as Zapad 2017. Last Thursday, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka
again stressed the defensive character of the exercise and Minsk began issuing invitations
to observers from neighboring states.

Andrey Porotnikov
of the Belarus Security Blog says that he doesn’t believe that the exercise threatens
Belarus with occupation or annexation as a result of Zapad 2017 “but here the
problem is more that we may encounter provocations from Russia which will complicate
or in general make impossible the normalization of relations with Belarus and
the West and create very great problems with relations with Ukraine.”

That Russia might take some
provocative action can’t be excluded,he
continues, not only because of its anger about the new US sanctions regime but
also because it is simultaneousy carrying out “large-scale exercises in … the
North Caucasus and the Southern Federal Military District, which I think will
have a clearly expressed aggressive character.”

“In principle,” Porotnikov says, “we
cannot completely exclude provocations on the territory of Belarus which the
Ukrainians are very concerned about. For example, a Russian plane from the
territory of Belarus could fly over the territory of Ukraine and Ukrainian
anti-aircraft forces could be given the order to destroy it.”

To ward off such possibilities or to
ensure that they do not get out of hand if they occur, the analyst argues, is
possible “only by a policy of maximum openness of the exercises, the exchange
of information, the inclusion of all possible observers and tight control of
the activity of Russian units on the territory of Belarus.”

The second Minsk expert Kukhta
interviewed was Arseny Sivitskky, the director of the Center for Strategic and
Foreign Policy Research who stressed that “now it is extraordinarily important”
that Belarus “not lose the status of a donor of regional security.” That it has
restricted the number of Russian troops slated to come to 3,000 is an
indication of its desire to avoid that.

Belarus, he says, “all the same is
playing a leading role in the planning and organization” of Zapad 2017.It intends to have the exercise take place in
the most open way possible, “without excesses or any surprises. Therefore, it
has informed in advance not only [its] neighbors but also international
organizations, including the OSCE.”

According to Sivitsky, “Belarus
really intends that these exercises take place without any breakdown in
regional stability and security. But this is the position of the Belarusians
site and may not coincide with that of Moscow which will be carrying out
portions of Zapad on its own territory, about which up to now nothing is known.

He says he “does not exclude” either
that Moscow may again raise the issue of establishing an airbase in Belarus,
given that this “strategic intention” on the part of Russia remains. “Belarus
has great significance for Russia from a military-political point of view in
order to put pressure on the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine.”

“To exclude provocations, for
example, on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is impossible,” Sivitsky says.“Our partner [Russia] conducts itself in an
unpredictable way not only with the countries of the West but even with
Belarus, its chief military-political ally.”

“But the Belarusian authorities are
insuring themselves” in the following way, he says: “Any departure from the
plan will not remain without a reaction from the side of the Belarusian
leadership. About that there can be no doubts.”

Staunton, July 31 – A convoy of 200
striking long-haul truckers who left Moscow 11 days ago has arrived in
Yekaterinburg as part of an all-Russia tour that will take them to cities in
Siberia and the Russian Far East and at a protest there not only called for the
end to the Plato fee system, the reason for the strike originally, but for the
election of a new Russian president.

Speakers at today’s
meeting said, the Kasparov portal reported “that practically everything in the
country is now prohibited and that it is very difficult to get approval for a
convoy.” In this way, they signaled that the labor action of the drivers “has
become a protest not only against Plato but also against the ineffective policy
of the state.”

Staunton, July 31 – Last week, Pskov
parliamentarian Lev Shlosberg argued that the only alternative to revolution in
the Russia of Vladimir Putin are elections but Igor Eidman argues that in
fact, Putin has no intention of holding real elections but instead will, in the
absence of a revolution, unleash still more wars of aggression.

The Russian commentator argues
that “the alternative to revolution in the present-day situation is not
elections which do not exist and under the current regime will not take place
but war. The Putin powers are already conducting regional wars in Syria and
Ukraine” but “of course, the regime will not stop at these” (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=597EB90F56D57).

The Kremlin’s “adventurist
policy will inevitably lead to new military conflicts,” Portnikov says. “The very
existence of this aggressive and inadequate regime, with its atomic weapons,
sharply increases the risk of global war and nuclear catastrophe.” And thus the
continued existence of Putin’s regime threatens people far more than any
revolution.

The commentator points out that “the
overwhelming majority of European revolutions of contemporary times, including
[Russia’s] in 1991” did not lead to civil war,” and consequently, those who suggest
that any future overturning of the Russian regime will have that outcome are
frightening people in ways that help keep the regime in power.

“Unfortunately, there is no
fairytale figure who could lead out of the Kremlin the enormous army of rats in
uniform and not who have settled there, headed by a kind who long ago lost his
adequacy” to rule.“They won’t go by
themselves,” Eidman says, “and to hope for that is to deceive oneself and
those around us.”

And he continues: “Only a revolution
can liquidate the Putin regime, the currently most dangerous source of threats
of a global catastrophe.” And thus a revolution and not anything is “is the
single chance for people striving to ensure that their families have a secure
future.”