Yet another attempt by the NUT to smear Michael Gove with dodgy data

Table purporting to show how many teachers have deserted the Tories since 2010. Note that the apostrophe in the headline is the wrong place. Tsk, tsk.

Earlier this week, Mike Smithson posted a blog on PoliticalBetting.com about how many teachers have deserted the Conservatives for Labour since 2010. A YouGov poll in March 2010 showed teachers splitting CON 33, LAB 32, LD 27 and UKIP 3, whereas a similar poll conducted last December found them splitting CON 16, LAB 57, LD 8 and UKIP 8. On the face of it, that looks bad for the Secretary of State for Education. Smithson concludes: "The Tories might have to pay an electoral price to pay for Mr. Gove."

But if you drill down into this polling data, it becomes clear that Smithson has been taken for a ride. Both polls were carried out for YouGov on behalf of the NUT – a fact omitted in Smithson's post. The March 2010 poll was a straight voting intention survey, whereas the December 2013 poll asked teachers a number of leading questions before asking them how they intended to vote, such as, "To what extent do you feel valued as a professional by politicians?", "Do you think publicly funded schools should be run for profit?" and "What impact are public sector cuts and austerity measures having on the children you teach and their families?" Hardly surprising, then, that such a large number said they'd vote "Labour". In the business, this is known as "push polling" – you push people towards making the choice you want them to make by asking them leading questions beforehand.

In addition, the results of the 2013 poll weren't weighted in the way they normally are by YouGov, taking into account previous voting habits, gender, socio-economic status, etc. Presumably, that's because when the raw data was weighted, the results showed fewer teachers deserting the Tories.

Mike Smithson is usually careful to note these things, pointing out when polling data is unreliable because the poll in question has been commissioned by a political combatant. Not this time, though. This blog post was pure "churnalism", regurgitating the dodgy "facts" provided by the NUT. Must try harder, Mr Smithson.