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Round 18 – It turns out the Lions really do have 99 Problems

Jackson wrote in the Guardian today that Brisbane have 99 problems but Tom Rockliff ain’t one and by our count it doesn’t look like that headline is particularly hyperbolic. We’ve gone through and attempted to enumerate what might constitute the Lions’ 99 problems:

Defenders nearly all children

A new draftee is their number one forward target

Haven’t led at half time all year

Very poor accuracy early in the season killed some chances to get a couple of wins

Gold Coast took a third of their base:

Gold Coast took probably the most fertile part of their local recruiting zone

Demoting the premiership-winning coach of their NEAFL side to assistant coach only a year after winning that flag

Shane Woewodin’s reserves recaps suggest he may not be able to speak in intelligible sentences

Widespread pundit view since they won three flags that must mean everything is their fault now

Constant uncertainty about the location of future training base

24-hour infinite footy opinion vortex unkind to all struggling teams

The Pineapple Hotel used to be a much better pub

Nowhere suitable to play preseason fixtures in Brisbane

Q-clash an almost perfectly terrible name for the Queensland derby

Believe. Belong. would be a better slogan for Geelong than Brisbane.

Still entirely unclear where or how the Lions will host their womens team

Callum Sinclair’s trick knee

Poor umpire understanding of stretcher protocols

Youngest team in the AFL

Only four players on the list have played over 100 games

Only one player on the list has kicked more than 100 goals for the Lions (Josh Green)

Only one player on the current list is older than 30 (Merrett) and one more older than 28 (Martin)

Deputy chairman Leigh Matthews picking unwise fights with the Suns about their very existence

Horrendous momentum-killing early fixture in 2016

Lack of hope narratives become self-fulfilling

Again: Their training rooms regularly flood.

Reigning NAB Cup champions in perpetuity, but do not flaunt this fact

Can’t get the ball or use the ball: Second last for contested disposal differential, last for uncontested disposal differential, last in effective disposal differential

Second last for inside 50s in 2016

Second last for contested marks in 2016

Second last for marks inside 50 in 2016

Second last for goal assist differential in 2016

Historically terrible defensive season in 2016, conceding an average of 130 to top 8 sides

Despite protests to the contrary, reports that Tom Rockliff might leave are major a problem

In fact, in our humble opinions, saying that the Lions only have 99 problems might if anything undersell the issue.

Things to watch

1. Toby Greene has evolved as a player, but is still kind of a butcher

“Cleaver” is the nickname that HPN bestowed upon Greene early in his career, named for Toby’s ability to butcher the ball with turnovers (not so much for his resemblance to Cleaver from Rake, nor for his weapon of choice which is a crutch rather than a comically large chopping tool).

This season, Greene has completely turned his game around as a small forward who occasionally drifts into the midfield, rather than the other way around. Greene has been at or near the top of the AFL clanger list for much of his career, but he’s doing it in a slightly different way now. As an undersized forward often used as a marking target, Cleaver engages physically on contests but often gives away the free kick because he’s just a little bit too physical.

Where as in the past this might cost GWS in the middle of the ground, it is now mitigated by his placement in the forward line and the strangling force of the Giants set-up.

The rise in Cleaver’s clangers this year (from 3.45 per game last year to 4.8 this year) is almost exactly accounted for by his rise in free kicks against (2.13, up from 1.27 last year). Greene is a very good player, and maybe verging on elite, however if he could keep working on this part of his game could be even better.

2. Geelong and Adelaide looks a ripper

In the HPN ratings, Geelong and Adelaide sit first and third at present, and very close in overall strength. Both sides are incredibly strong in two different areas; Geelong in the midfield and Adelaide up forward.

In recent weeks both have also been on differing trajectories, with Geelong shedding a bit of ratings strength in recent weeks and Adelaide firming a little further as their midfield steps up. The match, like so many among top sides right now, is pivotal for each club’s fate – Geelong trying to secure a top-4 spot and Adelaide two home finals.

We’d suggest the result will hinge on how much more effectively Adelaide can use the fewer inside-50 opportunities they’re likely to gain. We’ve seen Geelong exposed by fast-break football in recent weeks, this looms as a very tough matchup for them if their midfield can’t assert some defensive dominance.