REASONS TO BELIEVE

Keith & Crew. OK, he’s not Mateen Cleaves or last year’s do-everything forward Draymond Green, but junior point guard Keith Appling is the closest thing Michigan State has to a take-charge leader who’ll do what’s required. Along with swingman Branden Dawson and center Adreian Payne, Appling is one of three returning starters from a team that finished 29-8, won a share of the Big Ten title and reached the Sweet 16. Appling was the only Spartan other than Green to average double figures (11.4 points per game) last season, and he’ll be expected to increase that number while also getting the ball to Dawson and Payne.

Super sophs. The Spartans have some considerable young perimeter talent among second-year players Dawson, Travis Trice, Russell Byrd and Brandan Kearney. Dawson is the best-known commodity, but Kearney could have a breakout year. He impressed coach Tom Izzo with an array of summer improvements that included 15 pounds of muscle and a better shooting touch.

The Izzo approach. The Spartans’ staples under Izzo—smothering, physical defense and relentless rebounding—have not veered in his 17 seasons as head coach in East Lansing, and they’re not going to change now. Last year, Michigan State finished second nationally in field-goal percentage defense (.379) and fifth in rebound margin (plus-8.0). Even without Green, those figures won’t change much.

REASONS TO WORRY

The Green mile. Green, who was selected No. 35 overall in June’s NBA Draft, led the team in scoring, rebounding and steals and was second in assists. He practically willed the Spartans to many of their 29 wins. It will take a monstrous group effort to replace everything Green brought to the table.

Which Nix? Big man Derrick Nix pleaded guilty to a charge of impaired driving and was suspended from the team in April. He was reinstated but spent the summer trying to convince Izzo and his teammates that he has recommitted himself to the game—even going as far as announcing that he has become a vegetarian. The Spartans need him to produce more than the 8.1 points and 3.8 rebounds per game he did last season.

Offseason ailments. Three players in the projected rotation—Dawson (ACL surgery), Trice (bacterial infection) and Byrd (foot)—are coming off summer health battles. Izzo expects the trio to be near 100 percent by the season opener, but will they be basketball ready?

FIVE BIGGEST GAMES

Nov. 13 - vs. Kansas (Champions Classic)

Jan. 19 - vs. Ohio State

Jan. 27 - at Indiana

Feb. 19 - vs. Indiana

March 2 or 3 - at Michigan

IMPACT NEWCOMER

SG Gary Harris, freshman. He’ll have the chance to make an immediate contribution on offense. The five-star recruit from Fishers, Ind., is very much in the mold of departed Green, with a strong body and bouncy legs that help him finish at the rim and long arms to come up with steals.

BOTTOM LINE

Don’t be surprised if this becomes a top-10 team by midseason. There’s talent and experience on hand but also a few more questions than Izzo usually has heading into a season. Much will depend on how firmly Appling takes control of this team and how well Nix, Dawson and Payne do replacing Green’s numbers in the frontcourt.