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Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

1. The Ukraine is having civil unrest.
2. The unrest is spreading outside the capital.
3. The western powers are weak.
4. The Russian Foreign Minister is blaming the EU for the problems.

Russia's Sergei Lavrov: Ukraine getting 'out of control'
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that protests in Ukraine are "getting out of control".
He described violent clashes between anti-government protesters and police as "scary" and accused EU politicians of stirring up the situation.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25823091

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

A terrorist attack at Sochi would give Putin a United Nations santioned Cart Blanche blow upon the islamic insergents 7 terrorist which are crowding ural caucasus regions. The western media is already fearful of the famed black widows.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Originally Posted by Ted Hoppe

A terrorist attack at Sochi would give Putin a United Nations santioned Cart Blanche blow upon the islamic insergents 7 terrorist which are crowding ural caucasus regions. The western media is already fearful of the famed black widows.

I don't think he needs any excuse to do that, the Russians have been killing "insurgents"( or perhaps you could call them defenders of their respective homelands?) for the last 20 years. The black widows are an entirely predictable response from people who have been hammered for generations.

'' You ain't gonna learn what you don't what to know. ''
Grateful Dead

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Before you rush to judgement, read some of the Stratfor articles on that part of the world. It's worse than the Middle East with all the different ethnic groups, religious beliefs and age old animosities. Putin is more along the lines of a strong man. We hate those types, but they often keep the lid on which is what most of the people want more than "democracy", whatever that would mean in their neck of the woods. If Russia were to disappear tomorrow the power vacuum left behind would make the conflicts in the Middle East look like pillow fights.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

No, in a word.

Ukraine has no separatist regions within its borders and the aside from any troops along the common border with Russia there are 1200 14th Russian Army troops and about 22,000 tonnes of ammunition within the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria which borders the Ukraine. Their primary concern is to keep the Moldovan army at bay and maintain the region from rule by Moldova.

The political and economic price for Russia would be absurdly high and Putin would, in all likelihood, be kicked out on the back of such consequences. Putin may be a ruthless bastard, but he's not a stupid one.

“For masterpieces are not single and solitary births; they are the outcome of many years of thinking in common, of thinking by the body of the people, so that the experience of the mass is behind the single voice.” Virginia Woolf, A Room of One's Own

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Originally Posted by Waddie

Before you rush to judgement, read some of the Stratfor articles on that part of the world. It's worse than the Middle East with all the different ethnic groups, religious beliefs and age old animosities.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

The Ukraine is half russian ,half european. Complex. The protests are all about the rejection of the bad habits inherited from Russian style government. The youth believes that aligning Ukraine with Europe will reform government and bring prosperity.

A problem is that the Ukraine can never be European, they have to many trade and industrial links with Russia. If they break these links their economy will collapse. There is no way that Europe could come to the rescue.

the protesters would be best to cool off and use the next elections to bring reformist leaders to power.

In the perfect world Ukraine would become a neutral country that enjoys trade benefits with both russia and Europe.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

I don't think people quite understand the actual size of the Black Sea Paul and the location of the Ukraine on the other side of it from Georgia, nor the relative size of Georgia compared to the Ukraine both geographically and militarily, along with the fact the Ukraine holds military exercises with NATO and contributed forces in Iraq and peacekeepers to the Balkans, nor the fact that Ukraine is pretty much white and Christian/Atheist demographically. And it borders the EU...

“For masterpieces are not single and solitary births; they are the outcome of many years of thinking in common, of thinking by the body of the people, so that the experience of the mass is behind the single voice.” Virginia Woolf, A Room of One's Own

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

I agree, Andrew. I think that's what's behind all of this anyway. Russia doesn't have to send soldiers to the Ukraine, and the people protesting need to understand that Ukraine pretty much HAS to do what Putin wants whether they want it to be that way or not.

The question now is how long before ALL of a large chunk of Europe has to do the same, compliments of Gazprom.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

What is the Chinese position ?

"Under the 50-year plan, China would eventually control three million hectares, an area equivalent to Belgium or Massachusetts, which represents nine per cent of Ukraine's arable land. Initially 100,000 hectares would be leased."

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Russia may already have troops in the Ukraine

"And everyone knows that some of (the Russian troops) are already here, but nobody wants to speak openly about it because nobody wants to fight our brothers," she said, referring to a widespread belief that members of the Russian military make up the police force and hired provocateurs trying to sabotage and subdue the protests.http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...reats/5259777/

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Things are heating up.

Ukraine president to make announcement after at least 19 die in protests
Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Long-simmering tensions exploded anew in Ukraine as clashes between police and anti-government protesters left at least 19 people dead and the capital's central square afire into early Wednesday.http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/18/world/...html?hpt=hp_t1

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Given the history of previous incitements above, and the example of Russian intervention in Afghanistan, I would think the UN would react strongly to Russian involvement to any purported 'request' by the government. Sanctions, economic boycotts, diplomatic shunning. UN miltary reply? No.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Originally Posted by Waddie

Before you rush to judgement, read some of the Stratfor articles on that part of the world. It's worse than the Middle East with all the different ethnic groups, religious beliefs and age old animosities. Putin is more along the lines of a strong man. We hate those types, but they often keep the lid on which is what most of the people want more than "democracy", whatever that would mean in their neck of the woods. If Russia were to disappear tomorrow the power vacuum left behind would make the conflicts in the Middle East look like pillow fights.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Russia could make it look like they are the good guy in protecting Europe’s energy supply and saving the world from another depression.

If the EU or the UN complains then Russia only has to stage a pipeline terror attack and the west would beg Russia to get the oil flowing.

I understand your point here. My view is that any pretext will be seen by the outside world as just that, a pretext. Putin could spin away like Clotho in her web, and it wouldn't convince anybody. I think the Russian economy is very vulnerable to economic pressures.

Re: Do you think Russia will send troops into the Ukraine?

Originally Posted by Gerarddm

I understand your point here. My view is that any pretext will be seen by the outside world as just that, a pretext. Putin could spin away like Clotho in her web, and it wouldn't convince anybody. I think the Russian economy is very vulnerable to economic pressures.