Renal transplantation is the best option for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but its half-life is limited to a decade. Clinical and histological markers measurable within the first year of transplantation can be used to predict its outcome. These markers are important for selecting kidneys for transplantation, for identifying the main causes of late allograft loss, for therapeutic decisions and as surrogate markers in therapeutic trials. 'Basal state' markers, such as age, glomerular filtration rate and fibrotic lesions, are highly predictive of allograft loss, showing that early and stable pathological mechanisms contribute considerably to this loss. On the other hand, some more dynamic predictors such as treatment, recurrence of the initial disease, inflammation and epithelial phenotypic changes offer clinicians and researchers opportunities to influence the fate of allografts.