NEWS ARCHIVE

Roadmap to finding your March Madness upsets

The Northern Kentucky men's basketball team celebrates after their matchup against Kentucky was announced for the NCAA tournament, Sunday, March 12, 2017, in Highland Heights, Ky. NKU secured an automatic berth after winning the Horizon League championship to become the second team since 1970 to be selected for the tournament in its first eligible season.

In a perfect world, the higher seeds would win each NCAA Tournament game, a quartet of elite No. 1 teams would meet in the Final Four, and we’d wipe the chalk off our hands at the end of two and half weeks of cream rising to the top.

And it would be so boring.

Advertisement

Related Content

A key to filling out a bracket is knowing where to pick your upsets. Going straight chalk might keep you among the leaders for a few days, but there are likely to be at least a few bracket busters. Hit on those, and you might be among your office pool's leaders heading into the Final Four.

Here’s a breakdown of where the upsets typically occur in the first round.

9 over 8

OK, this isn't really an upset. These matchups are as close to a toss-up as you get in the tournament. According to the NCAA , there’s a 50-50 split of which seed wins these games.

Best chance to advance? All of these matchups are toss-ups, but Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans are normally a good bet to do well in March. They'll meet a well-matched Miami in the first round.

10 over 7

Sure, a 10 is a double-digit seed, but these often go to a better-than-average major conference school that might be better than its record. Last season, two 10 seeds won first-round matchups, with Syracuse becoming the first to go to the Final Four.

Best chance? Wichita, ranked 20th in the the AP poll, must have been livid to get a double-digit seed. Look out, Dayton. Oklahoma State could easily take down Big Ten tourney champ Michigan, as well.

11 over 6

Now we’re getting into legit upset territory – and matchups that go the way of the underdog with some frequency. An 11 seed has defeated a 6 the past 12 seasons and every year of this century except 2004. At least two have won first-round game each of the past three seasons, including three last year.

Best chance? Rhode Island played up to its preseason potential by the Atlantic 10 tournament. The Rams have a tough but winnable first-rounder with Creighton.

12 over 5

Like the 11 seeds, 12s might as well be favorites in these matchups. The lower seeds have won 10 of the last 16 first-round matchups. Those numbers have predictors picking 12 seeds nearly 36 percent of the time.

Best chance? Conference USA champ Middle Tennessee, facing Minnesota, has an athletic offense and an upset pedigree after taking down Michigan State last year.

13 over 4

Teams with a top 4 seed seem to inspire confidence with fans. No. 13 seeds have won a respectable 25 percent of their matchups, but pickers only take them 11 percent of the time. Recent tournaments haven’t been too kind to this underdog, though, with 4 seeds winning 11 of the last 12 matchups.

Best chance? Vermont has the longest active winning streak in the Division I at 21 games. The Catamounts play at a slow tempo, which can throw off some teams, but Purdue will have a size advantage in their matchup.

14 over 3

Many years, if a 14 seed knocks off a 3, that’ll be the biggest upset of the tournament (that wasn’t the case last year, but more on that later). This slot has ruined plenty of brackets in recent years, too, with at least one 14 winning a first-round game every year since 2013. Overall, they’ve won 16 percent of the 3-14 matchups, but they’re picked at a rate of just 6 percent.

Best chance? Florida Gulf Coast was a Cinderella in 2013, reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed. The program known as "Dunk City" has a chance to slam Florida State.

15 over 2

This is a rare upset, but it’s happened more than you might think. Just last year, No. 15 Middle Tennessee State beat No. 2 Michigan State for the fourth 2-15 upset since 2012 – the year two No. 15s won.

Best chance? It's be a surprise to see any of the 15s win this year, but if anyone has extra motivation to play well, it's Northern Kentucky. The Norse made their first trip to the tournament the first year they were eligible, and they'll meet in-state power Kentucky. Bragging rights?

16 over 1

It hasn’t happened before and probably won’t this year.

Best chance? Don’t bother. Gonzaga is the weakest of the 1s, but they’ll get into the round of 32.