France's Rating Downgrade a Warning for Banks

French banks were reminded of
risks to their own growth and credit ratings when Moody's
stripped France of its triple-A badge because of an uncertain
fiscal and economic outlook.

French banks were reminded of
risks to their own growth and credit ratings when Moody's
stripped France of its triple-A badge because of an uncertain
fiscal and economic outlook.

Lenders such as BNP Paribas, Societe Generale
and Credit Agricole have spent the past year
trying to contain their exposure to peripheral troublespots in
the euro area like Greece by dumping assets and cutting costs.

But the sector was singled out as an economic risk by
Moody's and analysts said cuts to the ratings of individual
banks most exposed to the French economy could follow.

"It is likely that Moody's will cut its outlook on SocGen
and Credit Agricole in coming weeks," said Yannick Naud, fund
manager at Glendevon King Asset Management.

Larger BNP is seen as more financially robust, with
regulatory capital levels above most big global banks under
"Basel III" accounting methods.

Moody's warned in its overnight announcement of the
downgrade that French banks remain vulnerable to a further
deepening of the eurozone debt crisis, both via their
cross-border exposures and their reliance on wholesale markets,
rather than deposits, to fund operations.

The French government said the criticism of the banking
sector was unjustified since it has already taken steps to
reduce exposure to the southern European economies that are
worst affected by the crisis.

"I don't think that it is fair by Moody's to flag an
increased weakness in the French banking sector, I think that
it's the contrary," Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said.

French banks have strengthened their balance sheets over the
past year by cutting staff, costs and dividends. They have also
sold assets including peripheral euro sovereign bonds and entire
business lines to help meet tougher capital requirements under
Basel III banking rules.

BAD NEWS

Monday's Moody's downgrade was not a huge surprise because
it followed Standard and Poor's decision to cut France's AAA
rating in January.

French debt hardly reacted and there was also little impact
on banking stocks which have soared some 30 to 50 percent
year-to-date on the back of support from the European Central
Bank.

Shares of BNP, SocGen and Credit Agricole, France's biggest
banks, were up 0.1 to 1.2 percent at 1530 GMT, outperforming a
0.7 percent drop for the STOXX 600 bank index.

But a stagnating domestic economy, rising unemployment and
consumer belt-tightening have started to hit revenues and
analysts expect more problems ahead.

SocGen said that the French economy had "slowed to a crawl"
when it announced an 86-percent drop in third-quarter net profit
on Nov. 8, while Credit Agricole took $4.6 billion in writedowns
for the same quarter on investments in Greece, Italy and Spain.

"It's not good news, it will lead to other downgrades and it
is bad for both the French banks and other holders of French
sovereign debt," said Hugues Le Maire, head of asset manager
Diamant Bleu.

BNP's rating was recently cut to A+ by Standard & Poor's,
citing economic headwinds. France accounted for nearly a third
of BNP's loan exposure at end-2011, while at SocGen it was
nearly half.

French banks are also important holders of sovereign debt:
BNP had about 10 billion euros ($12.8 billion) in French
government bonds in its banking book at end-June, while SocGen
had around 16 billion. Relative to their balance sheets,
however, the figures are low - in the low single-digit percent.

BNP did not respond to requests for comment about the
downgrade, while SocGen, Credit Agricole and Natixis'
parent declined to comment.

Analysts said smaller banks may feel the biggest pressure
from the Moody's decision.

"It's a non-event for sovereign debt ... But it means
further downward pressure on the weakest entities in the French
banking system," said Naud.

Credit-rating downgrades have already caused problems for
smaller bank entities that rely on securitization vehicles to
raise funds on the market. Property lender Credit Immobilier and
auto-loans provider Banque PSA Finance, part of Peugeot
, both got state guarantees after ratings downgrades.