Tropical Storm PALOMA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER. BANDING
FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1800Z TO PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE.
WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING INNER
CORE STRUCTURE SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF PALOMA IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND THE SHIPS INDEX SUGGESTS THAT
THE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS 3-4 TIMES THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE STRONG IN 60-120 HOUR TIME PERIODS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY
THAT PALOMA WOULD GET STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN OFFICIAL
FORECAST TIMES AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF STILL
FORECAST THE STORM TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
BASED ON THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW... IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES IT WAY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY
ON. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS
PALOMA ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A POWERFUL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERTICALLY-
COHERENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...PALOMA SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IN A SPEEDY FASHION...SIMILAR TO THE
SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD MODELS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL RIP PALOMA APART...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS SHOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE THE FORECAST REASONING THAT
PALOMA WILL REMAIN A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED
AFTER 72 HR WILL BE STILL BE SLOWER THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE
INDICATING.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.6N 82.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 82.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.3N 82.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.5N 80.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 22.5N 76.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 25.0N 73.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
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