NRL takes steps to influence evolution of the game

Ordering defenders to release the ball carrier as soon as the referee has called "held", decreasing the number of interchanges and introducing stronger deterrents for lifting tackles are among the options being considered to maintain a balance between attack and defence and ensure player safety as the NRL attempts to influence how the game evolves over the next decade.

For the first time in the code's history, NRL officials have collated data demonstrating changes since 2004 and projecting what the game may look like in 2024 to determine if intervention is needed to alter trends that have led to a reduction in the number of tries, line breaks and off-loads against defences that have become more structured in the professional era.

The information was presented to the NRL competition committee on Tuesday before being dissected over two days by its 15 members, including Wayne Bennett, Tim Sheens, John Lang, Trent Robinson, Daniel Anderson, Laurie Daley, Darren Lockyer, Michael Buettner, Mark O'Neill and Tony Archer.

While all agreed the game is in good shape, Bennett pointed out at the meeting that not only had tries decreased from an average of 8.4 per game in 2004 to 7.3 this season and line breaks fallen even more significantly but there were some matches that featured no line breaks and the only tries were scored from kicks or a player barging over close to the line.

If left unchecked, it is predicted that tries per game could drop to 5.7 and line breaks to 5.4 within a decade.

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"The last 10 years have been shaped without our input; it has just happened because we allowed it to happen," NRL head of football Todd Greenberg said. "In the next 10 years we have got to make sure that if we want certain outcomes, we make certain decisions to shape those outcomes."

The reasons identified for the shift towards defence were the more than doubling of the time – from 13 hours a week to 30 – that players now trained, technological advances, an increase in coaching staff from nine to 23 at some clubs and the increased size, strength and fitness of players, who are now full-time athletes.

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A lock, who weighed 96 kilograms in 2004, is expected to be 107 kilograms in 2024, while the average weight of a fullback is forecast to increase from 84 kilograms to 96 kilograms over the same period and utility players to bulk up from 94 kilograms to 106 kilograms.

"In that 10-year period [since 2004], every club has gone forward big time and the salary cap has gone up dramatically, so every club has got the ability to spend and pay more money, and you can see the difference with the staffing and the access to facilities that players now have," Sheens said.

No decisions were made at the conference but Greenberg and his staff will now look more closely at the following key areas:

Ruck Speed

With the statistics presented to the meeting showing that fast play-the-balls had decreased from 22 per cent of tackles in 2004 to 14 per cent this season and slow play the balls were up from just 4 per cent to 10 per cent, it was suggested that referees should call "held" quicker and defenders release the ball carrier immediately rather than peel off him as they are now allowed to do.

"I think everybody probably agrees that we need to speed up the play-the-ball to give more opportunities for ad lib play," Lang said. "But it is not just the slowing down of the play-the-ball, it is actually the slowing down before they get to the ground, it is the holding them up. That is not part of the speed of the play-the-ball."

However, another statistic showing that dummy half running had decreased from an average of 54 a game in 2004 to 21 this season prompted Daley to caution against any "radical decisions" without proper consideration of the consequences.

"What that suggests is that players are running from dummy half more to try and catch people offside, so if you quicken the game up you might find it goes back to a lot of dummy half running," he said.

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Interchange

The number of interchanges in 2004 was 12 compared with 10 now, but with players being fitter it is widely believed that a further reduction would help teams to unlock tiring defences and favour smaller playmakers.

"As the players get fitter, we need to make sure we continue to innovate so that fatigue plays a part in the modern game," Greenberg said.

Daley added: "If we keep going down the same path it rules out a lot of people playing our game, so I think you are better off to just decrease the interchange and that might open it up more".

Wrestling

A record 28 players were charged with wrestling offences this season and there are now an average of 12.5 (mostly legal) lifting tackles a match as defenders try to ensure the ball carrier is put on his back so he cannot play the ball quickly.

With three-man tackles now making up 35 per cent of all tackles and that ratio predicted to increase to one in two tackles, there are concerns about player safety as well as the decrease in scoring opportunities.

"In days gone by, defensive training used to comprise of tackling bags, a few tyre tubes and things like that, but the game has evolved to the point where players now spend an inordinate amount of hours working on defence and I mean defence, not tackling," Sheens said. "As well as the tackle and the wrestle and whatever, they can work as a group on the defence itself."

Lang said the players were too well versed at wrestling to eradicate it completely but dangerous tackles needed to be stamped out.

"Nobody does it on purpose but now they can't do the cannonball, some of the clubs are going in and picking one leg up and that has probably increased the potential for things to go wrong," he said.