The bottom line is clear: Our vital interests in Afghanistan are limited and military victory is not the key to achieving them. On the contrary, waging a lengthy counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan may well do more to aid Taliban recruiting than to dismantle the group, help spread conflict further into Pakistan, unify radical groups that might otherwise be quarreling amongst themselves, threaten the long-term health of the U.S. economy, and prevent the U.S. government from turning its full attention to other pressing problems. -- Afghanistan Study Group

An armored vehicle ran over a six-year-old boy’s legs:
$11,000. A jingle truck was “blown up by mistake”: $15,000. A controlled
detonation broke eight windows in a mosque: $106. A boy drowned in an
anti-tank ditch: $1,916. A 10-ton truck ran over a cucumber crop: $180. A
helicopter “shot bullets hitting and killing seven cows”: $2,253.
Destruction of 200 grape vines, 30 mulberry trees and one well: $1,317. A
wheelbarrow full of broken mirrors: $4,057. A child who died in a combat operation: $2,414.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

First, this essay has been much discussed around the blogosphere, but in case that was in precincts you don't visit, here is Graeme Wood's reporting on the organization's ideology. I'm not going to say much about it because if you're really interested, you'll read it. But the pistachio shell version is that they're conception of Islam is that it can only truly exist as a worldly power, i.e. the Caliphate; and that restoration of the Caliphate will bring about the end time. This is in fact an orthodox interpretation of Islam, although few, obviously, would endorse their tactics.

Zack Beauchamp, in Vox, wants us to know that they are not actually doing very well either militarily, or in their efforts at governance, and he sees the ultimate demise of the group as inevitable, although it's likely to take a long time. One reason is precisely their ideology, which compels them to take pragmatically ill-advised actions.

"Mr. Carter said that he had seen
varying reports about Afghanistan, including some that said the Taliban
were undergoing a resurgence and others that claimed that a small group
of militants had rebranded themselves as members of the Islamic State.

"He
said that he needed to travel to Afghanistan so that he could meet with
senior American and Afghan officials and make his own assessment of the
situation. He will begin with meetings with President Ashraf Ghani and
with Mr. Ghani's chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah."

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

As Dancewater noted in the comments yesterday, the UN reports that Afghan civilian casualties rose 22% last year from the year before, with 3,699 civilians killed and 6,849 injured. This is the highest number since the UN started keeping track in 2009. (One wonders why it took them so long to get around to it.) Most are killed as bystanders in ground engagements, rather than by explosive devices, due to indiscriminate use of rockets and mortars. The report blames the majority of civilian casualties on insurgents.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

As you have noticed, I'm no longer documenting the daily grind of skirmishes and bombings. You can take it for granted that continues. However, I will try to post at least 2 or 3 times a week, especially as events warrant.

In its latest report, Afghanistan Security Situation ,
released on 13 February, EASO noted that Taliban, Hezb-e Islami
Afghanistan, and other insurgent groups operating in the country are
carrying out more large-scale attacks against the Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF).

Referring to the 31 December 2014 termination of NATO's International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, the 211-page report
says the withdrawal of foreign troops "has had an impact on the areas
that they used to secure. In those areas, which are now left to the
ANSF, insurgents increasingly take control of territory and attack
administrative centres and security installations". . .

Noting that Afghanistan's security forces bore their highest numbers of
casualties in 2013-14 since the insurgency started, the report says that
"for the first time in the conflict, insurgents have been able to
inflict nearly as many ANSF casualties as they suffered themselves".

The
tempo of operations is “unprecedented for this time of year” — that is,
the traditional winter lull in fighting, an American military official
said. No official would provide exact figures, because the data is
classified. The Afghan and American governments have also sought to keep
quiet the surge in night raids to avoid political fallout in both
countries.

“It’s
all in the shadows now,” said a former Afghan security official who
informally advises his former colleagues. “The official war for the
Americans — the part of the war that you could go see — that’s over.
It’s only the secret war that’s still going. But it’s going hard.”

One wonders whether any U.S. casualties from these top secret activities are publicly reported.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Note: DoD has reversed the decision to classify SIGAR reports on the status of Afghan forces. Information about specific units will still be classified, but the overall numbers and condition of forces will remain public. I do not, however, attribute this to the awesome power of Today in Afghanistan.

Western officials have long considered a fair and respected justice
system to be central to quelling the insurgency, in an acknowledgment
that the Taliban's appeal had been rooted in its use of traditional
rural justice codes. But after the official end of the international
military mission and more than $US1 billion in development aid to build
up Afghanistan's court system, it stands largely discredited and
ridiculed by everyday Afghans. A common refrain, even in Kabul, is that
to settle a dispute over your farm in court, you must first sell your
chickens, your cows and your wife.

Thousands of undocumented Afghans have been fleeing Pakistan in the face of persecution, apparently inspired by the December attack on a school in Peshawar. Although the perpetrators were Pakistani, foreigners seem to be the targets of anger. Many of these people have resided in Pakistan for decades and do not have homes in Afghanistan to which to return.

A protest in Herat over a parliamentary decision to strip power from provincial councils. As I read this, provincial councils had a monitoring role over federal government activities, which has been eliminated. This is an issue of federalism, concerning the relative power of the federal government vs. the provinces. However, the issue here seems to focus on corruption and governmental integrity, rather than policy, with each side claiming the other acts out of illicit self-interest.