The politics of the Obamacare delay

Democrats have spent three years trying to navigate the treacherous politics of Obamacare — fleeing from it, changing the subject and, lately, insisting they’re ready to embrace it as it finally becomes a reality for Americans.

The White House’s announcement Tuesday that it is postponing a key part of the law until 2015 — a tacit acknowledgement that the law isn’t quite ready for prime time — throws that latest tack into doubt.

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POLITICO Junkies: Obamacare delay fallout

The delay denies Republicans powerful anecdotes to use against Democrats in the election — about small businesses crushed by higher costs and regulations. But it also hands the GOP ammunition to attack Obamacare as an albatross that conservatives should go to the polls to undo.

And for all their planning and insistence that the law will benefit Americans, Democrats privately acknowledge that how it plays out politically remains a big question mark — which just got a lot bigger.

“It’s never fun for us to have to deal with the unknown,” said one Democratic strategist who is involved with the party’s planning for House and Senate races. “The last time we ran away from [Obamacare]. This time we’re running toward it. But it’s better for us not to have to run with the unknown.”

Republicans wasted no time arguing that the White House announcement shows the law is an unworkable mess that will continue to cost Democrats politically. Over the coming months, GOP strategists say, the party will keep up its assault on Obamacare and efforts to tie Democratic hopefuls to it.

“It’s the gift that just keeps on giving,” said Brad Todd, a Republican media consultant. “For Republican political strategists, having Obamacare is like being in the Beer of the Month Club. Every month you get a new care package in the mail.”

Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, accused the White House of putting off the mandate — which will require businesses with at least 50 employees to provide health care coverage — because it became clear it would cost Democrats in 2014.

“They are realizing today what’s going to happen next year, and they’re trying to scramble and dodge,” he said. “This isn’t going away. It’s only going to get bigger and deeper.”

Democratic strategists have spent much of the past eight months since the 2012 election thinking about health care and how it will impact the 2014 battle for the House and Senate. They’ve poured over polling data. They’ve held focus groups and countless strategy sessions. Each time, they’ve struggled with the same question: How do we deal with Obamacare?

For all the analysis, the reality for Democrats is that Obamacare is a wild card; no one really knows exactly how it will affect Americans, who‘ve been, at best, uneasy about it. For party operatives, there’s nothing more unsettling than the unknown.

In 2010, Democrats in competitive congressional races across the map distanced themselves from Obamacare, fearful that anxieties about the law would doom their prospects. Backlash against the law propelled the tea party movement and helped Republicans seize House majority in a historic wave.