Best Time To Make Trades The Currency Market - Currency Trades November 12, 2015

Best Time To Make Trades The Currency Market

The foreign money market contains the International Currency Market and the Euro-forex Market. The Foreign Currency Market is virtual. There is no one central physical location that is the international currency market. It exists in the dealing rooms of varied central banks, giant international banks, and some giant corporations. The dealing rooms are linked via telephone, pc, and fax. Some countries co-find their dealing rooms in a single center. The Euro-forex Market is the place borrowing and lending of currency takes place. Rates of interest for the varied currencies are set on this market.

In the foreign money market, you pay No commissions and No change fees. Since you deal straight with the market maker through a purely digital online change, you get rid of both ticket prices and intermediary brokerage fees. There is nonetheless a value to initiating a trade, but that price is reflected within the bid/ask unfold that is also present in futures or equities trading. Nevertheless, buying and selling by way of our buying and selling station gives tight constant spreads.

By far one of the best time to commerce the forex market is when its the most active and therefore has the most important volume of trades. A fast foreign money market means more opportunity for value moves both up or down. A slow market usually means you might be losing your time turn off your pc and go fishing!

The greatest volume of foreign money transactions undergo during London time, followed by New York and then Tokyo hours. London time therefore is the centre of the currency trading universe.

What does this imply to us the common forex dealer and is there a finest time to commerce our chosen currency pair?

Yes! To begin with we must take a look at overlapping buying and selling times.

The foreign exchange market starts with Japanese traders between 8:00 pm to four:00 am EST. At 3:00 am EST London traders start their day and finish at 11:00 am EST. New York traders open at eight:00 am and end at 4:00 pm EST.

If were buying and selling EUR/USD, USD/GPB currency pairs we should look at when the buying and selling time for these pairs overlaps. Therefore, the most effective time to trade the currency pair: EUR/USD and USD/GPB is between 7:00 am and 11:00 am EST when the 2 markets for these currencies are most active. (ie. when they are overlapping).

Foreign currency trading is a zero sum game and we as merchants must try to do all the things doable to get that extra advantage over our competition and swing the chances in our favour. Choosing the very best time to trade the foreign money pair we have selected is likely one of the issues underneath our control that can easily be done.

Another thing foreign exchange day traders should concentrate on associated to the very best time to trade is that Mondays and Fridays are generally poor days to trade. Why is this?

Empirical analysis suggests that Monday trading is often tentative because the market is trying to make careful steps to verify or establish a trend. Fridays are also poor days due to the big amount of closing trades on that day.

Counclusion:

The best time to commerce the forex pair of your selection is when buying and selling in that individual foreign money is most active. The perfect days to trade the forex market is more probably between Tuesday and Thursday. Good luck with your trading!

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Swing Trading Strategies

Market timing is the most critical element of swing trading strategies. without which successful swing trading would be impossible to achieve. John Crane understood this when he began developing his swing trading system over 20 years ago.

John Crane's Swing trading software was developed from methods John Crane wrote about in the Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Stocks and Commodities, and Baron's, to name a few. He's written four books on his swing trading strategy, including: Unlocking Wealth and Advanced Swing Trading . both of which made the Traders Library's best sellers list.

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Be sure to check out the Swing Trading and Market Timing links on the left (sidebar). The information included within those links will help you understand futures market timing and futures market swings. The concept of swing trading may be new to you, or perhaps the unique way we look at swing trading and marketing timing. As for the differences between stock trading and futures trading with respect to market timing and swing trading or swing trading strategies in general are very little. A market is a market, as they say. right! For the most part, that is true. Although there are differences between stocks and futures markets and futures trading with regard to swing trading, they're both chartable, and it's the chart we focus on.

What came first, the egg or the chicken? In a way, many traders ask the same question concerning swing trading and market timing. What came first, the fundamentals or the technicals? The RT Swing Trader is a purely technical system so it's obvious we favor the technical aspect of trading. We believe, the fundamental indicators driving the markets, particularly market timing, are already factored into the market. The very development of new market altering fundamentals change the market in a way that the technical indicators measure the shift generally before the fundamental news has filtered into the market itself. And so it is, we believe, very important to understand and continually monitor market timing using swing trading strategies. Unfortunately, that takes a great deal of time, that's why we developed the RT Swing Trader.

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How Can Someone Trade Forex Successfully? (E-Zine)

The forex trading market is surrounded by a certain amount of mystique due to the lack of a single formula for carrying out the trades successfully. Good trading is usually coupled by both talent and hard work. You cannot enter into this market unprepared for what lies ahead and expect to be highly successful. You will need to make sure that your personal goals and temperaments are aligned to the tools as well as trading strategies that you can relate to.

Questions and Answers

Posted by athomewithkyle

The one you invent yourself and understand completely is the best

everyone else's will very likely fail. This has to be so because they will sell it to everyone they can find (thousands or tens of thousands of want to be traders), thus flooding the market with people all trying to trade the same way and therefore squeezing out the profit.

Since every professional trader already knows this, I think it likely you've been pitched by one of these firms touting their system.

You'll do far better to discover the causes of trading success in general and skip paying for someone else's canned system.

I'm reminded that one of my trading gurus once commented in a public forum that he'd been fortunate enough to appear on the same program [some years ago] with one of the provably best traders in the world who was touting his systems. He asked this great trader why he was selling his secrets and got the following response:

(as best I remember it) 99% of the people paying to hear me today are only looking to feel good about having superior knowledge and won't actually trade anything Of the remainder, 99% won't do as I tell them but will insist on 'improving' my methods — AND will fail when they try. Thus, for every person who actually does what I suggest and becomes my competition, I add 99 others who will consistently lose money to me. PLUS, I get paid up front for these sessions.

Don't you think that's pretty heartless of the successful trader?

NOW, ask yourself if you understand WHY 99 of the 100 who actually do try trading won't be able to resist 'improving' the winning system? What is it that the successful professional trader knows that these amateurs do NOT know that is going to cost them their money?

The same person I've been learning from used to open his public seminars by commenting that 49 out of 50 new traders will leave the market within two years after having lost some, all, or more than all of their capital.

98% failure rate is pretty steep odds. And buying a system likely won't help, but may actually hurt.

In this paper, I present five different strategies you can use to trade inverse volatility. Why trade inverse volatility you ask?

Because since 2011, trading inverse volatility was probably the most rewarding investment an investor could make in the markets. Annual returns of between 40% 100% have been possible which crushes any other strategy I know.

In modern markets, the best way to protect capital would be to rotate out of falling assets, like we do in our rotation strategies. This is relatively easy, if you are invested only in a few ETFs, but it is much more difficult, if you are invested in a lot of different shares. In such a situation an easy way to protect capital is to hedge it, going long VIX Futures, VIX call options or VIX ETFs VXX.

If you trade inverse volatility, which means going short VIX, you play the role of an insurer who sells worried investors an insurance policy to protect them from falling stock markets. To hedge a portfolio by 100% an investor needs to buy VXX ETFs for about 20% of the portfolio value. The VXX ETF loses up to 10% of its value per month, because of the VIX Futures contango, so this means that scared investors are willing to pay 1.5-2% of the portfolio value per month or around 25% per year for this insurance. Investing in inverse volatility means nothing more, than taking over the risk and collecting this insurance premium from worried investors and you can capitalize on this with a few simple strategies, which I will show you below.

Something seems afoot. Why do investors pay 25% per year to hedge 100% of an SP 500 portfolio which traditionally has only achieved a return on average of around 8% in the last 10 years? I am sure many investors must have lost more money paying for this insurance than they would have lost from falling stock markets. But I guess, they are paying for their own peace of mind.

Traditionally, it has always been better to hedge a portfolio with US Treasury bonds. These normally have like VIX products a negative correlation of about -0.5 to -0.75 with the US stock market, but unlike VIX volatility products, they can achieve long term positive returns.

However, since June 2013, US Treasuries have lost their negative correlation to the stock market, and at the moment there is no other choice to hedge a portfolio than to buy these very expensive VIX products or inverse index ETFs.

This is good news for people like me, who like to trade inverse volatility. However, there is something you need to know. You should never ever trade inverse volatility without being 100% clear on your exit strategy!

Here, I want to present some strategies which may be new to you and will allow you to participate in these high return volatility markets.

The Basic Contango Rule Strategy for VIX

For this strategy, all you have to do a daily check of the VIX term curve. You can find this curve for example at vixcentral

As long as the front month is in contango (curve goes up from left to right), such as in the chart above, you can go short VXX or long XIV. Sometimes you will see the front part of the curve go up until the front month goes to backwardation.

Here in this graph you see the days of the last fiscal cliff fear spike.

If the two front month of the VIX term curve are in backwardation and the curve drops downwards, such as in the chart above on October 7.-8. this is a clear sign to exit VXX or XIV. From October 10, the curve returned to contango and you could have again shorted VXX or gone long XIV.

It is clear, that most of the time when you have to exit it is because of a short VIX fear spike (such as above) which is over after a few days. You will have to realize a loss, but, this is inconsequential. Normally, you need only a few days to cover these losses again as the normal VIX contango situation is restored. In the example above, the front month future was below 20, which is not that worrying, but in 2008, this value spiked to 70. This means that going short VXX would have meant the possibility of realizing 300% losses if you didnt strictly follow any exit rules.

This contango rule strategy is not really a strategy, because it doesnt give you a clear exit signal, however, if you invest in inverse volatility, you MUST know the VIX Futures term structure.

The Bollinger Band or Simple Moving Average Strategy

These are strategies which work well and which have the advantage that you can backtest the strategies, or you can even automate these strategies . I used to trade the Bollinger band strategy for quite some time automatically with Tradestation.

Here is the backtest of this strategy since Feb. 1, 2009 which was when the VXX started. The performance has delivered a 96.41% annualized return or 2370% in total if you reinvested all profits. If you invest always the same amount which is what I did, then you get 5.8% per month which is a very nice monthly income.

The SPY ETF has delivered only a 20% annualized return or 137% total return during the same period. This is also very good, but pales in comparison to the VXX strategy return.

The maximum drawdown of this strategy was 27.7% compared to 20% for the SPY ETF. The risk to return ratio of such a strategy is 3.27 compared to 0.99 for the SPY ETF. So, even if trading VXX is considered risky, with the right strategy you could have had a 3x better risk to return ratio than for the US equity investment (SPY).

The parameters for this strategy have been optimized in QuantShare. The Bollinger band period is 20 days and the upper line is at 1.4. If VXX crosses the upper line I will exit (cover) VXX the next day at open. If VXX goes below the middle line, then I go short VXX the next day at open.

You can also use two SMA lines with 15 and 5 days and sell or cover at the crossings. The return is more or less the same as for the Bollinger strategy.

You can also do such strategies with XIV which is the inverse of VXX. However, the maximum annual return which I could achieve is 84% per year, which is 12% less than with VXX. This lower performance is mainly due to time decay losses which are quite strong for such volatile ETFs.

So, this is quite a simple strategy. You can even set a stop at the level of the upper Bollinger band line + 1%, so that the exit is automatic in case something very bad happens.

The Cautious Investor Medium Term Inverse Volatility Strategy

The two strategies above are for traders willing to check their investments on a daily basis. If you do not want to do this because you like to go on long holidays or you just dont like to look every day at your PC screen then it is better to invest in the medium term inverse volatility. You can do this by going long ZIV or going short VXZ. VXZ has higher volume than ZIV but the results are similar.

VXZ and ZIV have less than half the volatility (vola=25) than VXX or XIV (vola=55). Also, the contango structure is more stable than for the front month. Also, during the fiscal cliff crisis last month, the midterm futures never went into backwardation.

You can also use a Bollinger or SMA trading system for these ETFs. You will achieve about 44% annual return trading VXZ and you can do so with less than half of the volatility. This way you have about the same return to risk ratio as if you had traded the VXX.

However, because the volatility and behavior of ZIV or VXZ is very similar to the stock market, you can also include for example ZIV in a rotation strategy. In such a strategy it is a ranking mechanism which will tell you when to exit ZIV. This is normally better than using moving averages, because the switching points are much smoother.

Investing in Medium Term Inverse Volatility with the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy

A strategy I employ which gets most of its return from inverse volatility is the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy which I presented in Seeking Alpha around two months ago. With such a strategy you can outperform a simple ZIV or VXZ SMA strategy by up to 20% per year. The advantage is that you only need to check the ranking of the ETFs every two weeks. No need to check daily the VIX term structure or the ZIV charts. Rotation strategies are very sensitive to changing market environments.

In case of upcoming market troubles, US Treasuries will quite early outperform ZIV and the strategy will rotate out of ZIV into treasuries. The main advantage of such a strategy is that it not only exits ZIV during market corrections, but the strategy will then rotate into Treasuries which can produce very nice additional returns during market corrections.

The High Probability VIX Future Trade Strategy

Instead of investing in VIX ETFs, I prefer to sell the VIX Futures directly. Normally, somewhere during the third week of the month, the front VIX future expires and is removed from the VIX term structure chart (see chart below). Now the second month will move to the front month position and on the curve end a new Future will appear. I always go short a few of these Futures (red arrow) and then just let them slowly move down the curve until they arrive about at the green arrow position. At this point I cover my short position and collect the roll yield for the about 4.5 months. On this chart, this would mean going short at about 19.25$ and covering (buy) at around 17$. That means a profit of 2.25$. Sometimes I have to wait a little bit longer to sell, for example if there would be a VIX spike of some nature. But, for more than two years, I have never seen a loss.

So, this is a high probability trade. Once per month you go short the last or second last future and at the same time you enter a stop limit and a cover limit. For the July Future in the chart below, I for example go short at 19.25. I activate a stop loss limit at 21.50 (=+2.25) and I activate a take profit limit at 17.00 (=-2.25). Now I just wait about 4 months until one of these limit is executed. As long as the contango of the VIX futures is there, this will be a trade with a profit probability of 90%-100%.

The volatility of these back end futures is quite low and there is no big risk, however, even here there would be moments where you have to exit. The main reason to stop such trades is when the back end of the future curve gets completely flat or even goes into backwardation. However, this is relatively easy to check online at vixcentral .

The markets are heavily correlated. We see examples of correlations in commodities and forex, where crude oil prices directly affect the value of the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen. We also see similar correlations between the value of the Nikkei 225 (a stock index) and the Japanese Yen, or the correlation between gold prices and the Australian Dollar. Indeed, a look at the gold charts and that of the AUDUSD will show that the rapid drop in the price of gold has also dragged down the value of the Australian Dollar when compared with other majors such as the US Dollar, Euro and Canadian Dollar. This goes to show that the markets should not be traded in isolation. Traders must always study the relationship between a particular currency and another market asset in the commodities, index or futures markets, so that the basis of a price movement can be thoroughly understood. In addition, information about the market potential for price volatility based on the occurrences in other markets can also be understood very clearly.

In this article, we shall examine the relationship between the forex market and the bond market. Not many traders know that there is a relationship between forex and bonds, let alone know the interplaying factors between both assets. That is what this article seeks to show so that traders will no longer be in the about how bonds and currencies affect each other.

BONDS: WHAT ARE THEY?

What are bonds?

Bonds are money market debt instruments which can be used by governments and corporations as a means of accessing cheap borrowed funds. Bonds are commonly issued by governments at all levels (Federal, State and Local/Municipal governments), and less commonly by corporate bodies. They provide a source of cheaper borrowing when compared with bank loans, and that is what makes them desirable. In addition, the bond issuer usually sets the terms of borrowing and financing, essentially giving the borrowing entity the ability to set repayment rates at the borrower’s convenience. It is then up to the lender to decide if the borrowing terms and repayment percentages, interests and plans are suitable.

Bonds go by different names. They are also called Treasuries, Treasury Yields, Government Notes, etc. Bonds also have different maturity times. Bond buyers are paid periodic interests for their investments, so we have bonds that have 30-day yields, 60-day, 90-day, 120-day, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30 year yields.

Bond Yields and Bond Prices

We see these terms used a lot when describing bonds, so it is important for us to describe what they are so that the trader understands what these terms stand for. The bond price refers to the cost of the bond (which is what the bond buyer pays when buying the bond) while the bond yield is the interest that the bond buyer is paid by the bond issuer for the use of the bond buyer’s money.

The bond price is inversely related to the bind yield. When bond prices rise, yields fall and vice versa.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREX AND BONDS

How are bonds related to the value of currencies? Certain characteristics of bonds will affect the value of a currency. These are:

a) Bond Yields

b) Bond Spreads

Bond Yields and Currencies

Bonds are traditionally lower yielding investments when compared to currencies, but are regarded as safer investments because the interest yields on the bond instruments are almost always guaranteed. Therefore, traders mostly purchase bonds when there is uncertainty in other markets. Thus, bond-buying is associated with “flight to safety” or risk aversion. Once risk aversion is full in play in the markets, bond prices will traditionally start to rise and bond yields will correspondingly fall.

A classical example of how a currency relates to a bond is the relationship between the US Dollar the 10-year Treasury Note. The currency of a country and its bond price are inherently tied to the interest rate of the country (which actually serves as the benchmark for the bond yield). When retail prices rise, there is a risk of inflation which increases the likelihood of interest rate increases, which leads to higher bond yields. Higher bond yields will lead to higher demand for the local currency as foreign investors exchange their currency for the local currency in order to buy the bonds of the affected country. This upsurge in demand will lead to a rise in the value of the currency. Therefore, rising yields of the bond will lead to a higher currency value, while falling yields will lead to a drop in the value of a currency.

When looking at the yield of the 10-year US Treasury Note and the US Dollar, we can see that there is a positive correlation. The charts below illustrates this point:

The 1-year chart movement for the Bond Yields on the US 10-Year Treasury Note

1 Year Chart for USDCAD (Daily)

The following charts are an illustration of the correlation between a currency pair containing the USD (USDCAD) and the 10-year US Treasury Note. We see the 10-year US Treasury Note behaving in a similar pattern to the USDCAD currency movement. Both charts are representative of the price movements and bond yields of the two assets.

We can clearly see that with a rise in the bond yields, there is a corresponding rise in the USDCAD. Areas where there is a dip in the bond yields correlate with a dip in the price of the USDCAD. This goes to highlight the relationship between the 10 year Note and the US Dollar. Increase in bond yields will always attract investor interest into the currency of the affected country, spurring a demand-driven rise in the currencys value.

Bond Spreads and Currencies

We have heard about spreads when dealing with the bid and ask price of a currency pair. Spreads also exist in the bond market, and bond spreads simply refer to the difference in the bond yields of two countries in comparison. Usually, the currencies of those countries whose bond yields are compared in spreads are those that are found in the forex market.

Have you ever heard of the carry trade? If you have, then this is the entire basis of the carry trade in forex. In case you have not and you are yet to read about the carry trade from one of the previous articles on this site, then we will explain the carry trade once again. The carry trade is simply one of the forex trading strategies in which a trader seeks to gain from the differential in bond yields/interest rates of two currencies paired together. Usually, the best gains are made when a currency with a relatively high bond yield is traded against another currency with the lowest bond yield.

The height of the carry trade was in 2006/2007 when Japans bond yields were very low (not more than 0.5%) and that of countries like Australia (8.25% at a point), Britain and Canada were much higher. Many traders made incredible profits trading the AUDJPY and GBPJPY in those years. The global financial crisis caused many countries to cut interest rates, unwinding the carry trades to some extent. However, some measure of carry trading still exists as there is still a reasonable differential between the interest rates of Australia and Canada on one hand, and that of the US and Japan on the other, providing opportunities to make money from the bond yield differentials available by trading the AUDUSD and AUDJPY.

Traders can capitalize on this in the following ways:

a) Look for long-term opportunities to buy the AUDUSD. Presently, the AUDUSD is in a downtrend as gold prices have tanked in recent weeks. Any fundamental factor which pushes the price of the AUDUSD upwards from its present levels will present an opportunity to benefit from a long position on this pair. The opportunity should be sought for on the daily charts, providing an opportunity to hold the position for days or weeks, and earning interest every day as the position is rolled over.

b) Look or long term opportunities to sell the USDCAD using the same principles outlined above.

CONCLUSION

Going forward, traders can use these bond resources to trade currencies. One of the important resources on bonds is the list of bond spreads and bond yields from country to country. There are several websites where this information is available. Using this information, it will be possible for traders to identify other currency pairs where there is a sufficient interest rate differential to profit from bond yields and bond spreads.

Traders should also know that most of these opportunities are medium to long term. Apart from the daily rollover paid out for holding a long position on a high bond yielding currency (which requires large positions to be meaningful), traders are encouraged to hold such positions for days or weeks when the trend favours the higher yielding currency. This is the only way that profiting from bond yields and bond spreads will provide the maximum profits accruable.

Courtney Smith is well qualified to write the definitive guide to futures spread trading. His rich, lengthy and varied background in many aspects of the investment business is virtually unparalleled among financial authors. He is currently President of Courtney Smith Co. a company which has provided investment management services for individuals and institutions since 1990.

He is also President and Chief Investment Officer of Pinnacle Capital Strategies, Inc. which manages hedge funds. The flagship fund is the Macro Fund which has built a compound return of over 23% per year for almost five years with virtually no correlation with the stock market or other hedge funds.

Mr. Smith is a world renowned writer and columnist. He writes a weekly column for the world?s most popular financial website, CBSMarketWatch. He is the editor of Courtney Smith?s Wall Street Winners Newsletter, an investment advisory newsletter with a circulation of over 32,000.

Mr. Smith is the owner and Editor-in-Chief of Commodity Traders Consumer Reports (CTCR). CTCR is the premier tracking service for the futures industry as well as the most prestigious publication for futures trading insights. CTCR has been providing insights to the futures community since 1983.

He was also the Chief Investment Strategist of Orbitex Management. Inc. Orbitex manages and administers over $5 billion in mutual funds and portfolios for institutions and individuals.

Previously, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Quantum Financial Services Inc. a $100 million futures and stock brokerage firm. Mr. Smith was First Vice President and Treasurer of the New York branch of Banca della Svizzera Italiana (BSI), a Swiss bank. At BSI, Mr. Smith managed mutual funds, client accounts, and was responsible for the trading activities of the New York Branch as well as trading and marketing fixed income and foreign exchange derivatives for the entire bank.

Mr. Smith was formerly Group Vice President in charge of Financial Derivatives at the French bank Banque Paribas, New York, and was Vice President and a Director of Research and Commercial Services for Paine Webber, Inc. Mr. Smith managed client accounts prior to joining Paine Webber.

Mr. Smith has been a featured speaker at investment conferences throughout North America and Europe. He has appeared many times on such national television shows as Wall Street Journal Report, and Moneyline as well as other shows on CBS, Fox News, Bloomberg, CNN, and CNNfn. He is a featured guest on CNBC.

Product Description

Spread trading is an integral part of the commodity futures marketplace, yet relatively little has been written about spreads. There are more fingers on one hand than books about spreads.

Most books present little more than a cursory look at spread analysis. This book concentrates on the analysis of spreads and spread price action. Spread analysis is aimed at the discovery and execution of profitable spread trades. The seasonal spread texts are simply one of the tools the spread analyst uses. Before this book, futures periodicals have provided most of the published material about spreads.

This book is like having an experienced spread trader mentor take you through his experiences and getting immediate answers. It is like attending a spread seminar headed by experts. It really provides answers.

Courtney provides basic spread analysis techniques which stimulate readers to do their own research. Another goal of this book is to increase interest in spreads and provide the marketplace of ideas with a larger supply of spread trading analysts.

Mr. Smith?s techniques will not make you a millionaire overnight. It didn?t do it for him. On the other hand, these techniques have provided significant profits when most traders were taking losses. Each reader of this book will acquire something different from it. Some traders will be attracted to the technical analysis, while others will prefer the fundamental and statistical analysis.

The key to the successful use of this book lies in trying the methods outlined. Only through experience can traders understand what is being said. After reading this book, traders will must find the method they feel is the most profitable and best fits their perspective on the market, the one they feel most comfortable with.

Under the Trading Online defines scalping the opening and closing positions of various financial products in a very short time span, of the order of a few minutes. Scalping should not be confused with day trading concerns transactions with a daily time horizon.

Originally Posted by Strorge1975

Under the Trading Online defines scalping the opening and closing positions of various financial products in a very short time span, of the order of a few minutes. Scalping should not be confused with day trading concerns transactions with a daily time horizon.

An excellent Stock Market Trading strategy that I use to provide exceptional returns with a strong level of protection against capital loss is designed around the VIX Index. This Stock Market Trading strategy has a solid track record in my portfolio that stretches back to 2003.

I have written a number of articles regarding the VIX Index as a market timing system but many investors are not aware of using the VIX Index as a Stock Market Trading strategy. Todays drop of 1.87% in the SP 500 provided a return in excess of 70% for my most recent VIX Index trade.

I have used the VIX Index for Stock Market Trading since 2003 after studying and paper trading it from 2000 to 2002. The VIX Index has options which while not the most liquid, certainly have enough volume to allow me to get filled on 50 to 100 contracts without any problem.

How The VIX Index Stock Market Trading Strategy Works

Using the VIX Index as a market timing system can be as complex or as simple as you want. I prefer simple. My strategy is basic. Whenever the VIX Index falls to $14.00 I buy the $14 strike calls on the VIX Index a minimum of 3 to 6 months out.

Boosting The Return

Often to boost the return I sell the $14 or lower put strike 3 months out as I dont mind being assigned at the $14 or $13 put strike since this is where I would buy my calls. I do not sell calls to turn my position into a credit spread.

Simple Works Best In My Book

I prefer to keep the trading simple which means selling puts when the VIX Index gets down to almost $14 or below and buying calls at the $14 strike.

When I started this Stock Market Trading strategy in 2004 I was using the $12 call strike to buy calls and selling the $12 put.

After the 2008 market crash I changed first to $15 and then in 2011 to $14 as volatility in the overall markets declined. I will explain how to determine strike levels throughout the year further into this Stock Market Trading article.

Lets take a look at the profitability of this Stock Market Trading strategy.

Stock Market Trading Strategy in 2013 with the VIX Index

How well does this system work? It is quite profitable with very little downside.

Below is the VIX Index since November 2012. On January 4 2013 when the VIX Index fell below $14 for the first time in months, I bought 25 April $14 call contracts for $3.95.

This is not a strategy for those without patience. Often it can take a while for the trade to work out and it can be difficult for many investors to spend money on call options and then watch them erode. If that is the type of investor you are, then this trade will never work out.

VIX Index 2013 Trades to date

After January 4 when the VIX Index continued to fall my call options lost value which is only natural. In early Feb as the VIX Index moved higher back to $14 my April $14 call options did not increase much in value because options are a wasting asset and these types of options need a spike to get the premiums back up.

That spike came today when the VIX Index jumped up to $19.28 before closing at $18.99. I sold my 25 VIX Index call options for $7.15.

Return = $7440.00 or 75%. This is the type of return I have experience with this Stock Market Trading strategy.

The Rules I Follow

There are a few rules about this Stock Market Trading system that I follow.

1) Patience is absolutely essential.

2) I only use the amount of capital I can afford to lose. In my case around $30,000 is my maximum capital I would ever want to risk.

3) I set my alert within my discount brokers software to $14.00 on the VIX Index so I dont have to watch it. I will be emailed and text messaged when the VIX Index hits $14.

4) I always buy a minimum of 3 months out.

5) I always buy the $14 strike call.

6) I sometimes try to sell the $14 or lower put strike for extra profit but most of the time this is a call buying trade.

7) I watch the overall volatility of the SP 500 as measured by the VIX Index and as the volatility declines I move lower for my base strike. For example in 2004 I was using the $12 put strike. After the 2008 bear market crash I changed first to $15 and then in 2011 to $14 as volatility in the overall markets declined.

8) You cannot over trade this strategy. Some years there are only one or two trades. This is not a strategy for those investors who like to always be trading. This is a strategy that offers only a few trades a year which is why I use it only to boost my overall portfolio. It has such a low-level of risk however that I enjoy the profits that it produces and rarely need to adjust my call positions.

To understand this simple strategy better lets look at past years.

Stock Market Trading VIX Index Trades in 2012

On September 14 2012 I bought January 2013 $14 calls which I sold on September 16 when the VIX Index reached $17.00. Two weeks later on October 5 I bought January 2013 $14 calls again which I sold October 25 when the VIX Index reached $18.00

VIX Index Fall 2012 2 trades

The trade prior was on August 13 2012 when I bought the January 2013 $14 calls and sold then on August 31 when the VIX Index reached $17.50.

VIX Index Index Trades August 2012

On March 16 2012 I bought the July $14 calls and sold them on April 9 with the VIX Index at $18.25

VIX Index March 2012 Trades

In 2012 then there were 4 trades. I earned between 60% and 70% with each trade and stayed with no more than $30,000 maximum capital invested split with 70% in the call options and 30% to cover the sold puts. If the puts end up in the money this is a cash settled trade (no stock assigned on the index) and I need the cash in the event I am wrong and I then must make up the difference through a cash settlement.

Stock Market Trading VIX Index Trades in 2011

2011 saw only one trade so obviously I was too low at the $14 strike and should have selected $15. On April 21 I bought the July $14 calls and sold them on May 9 2011.

Stock Market Trading Strategy With The VIX Index

To understand how to pick the VIX Index strike price I keep a watch on the previous year which obviously in 2011 did not work which is why there was only the one trade.

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2009

In 2009 I did NO Stock Market Trading strategy trades using my VIX Index system as volatility was too high. However the decline was obvious to me but I still needed it to be below $20.00 before entering this strategy again.

VIX Index 2009 weekly chart

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2010

In 2010 the VIX Index in April fell below $16 and I bought the July $15 calls. This was an excellent trade. In December the VIX Index fell again below $16 and I again I bought the $15 calls.

The pull back of the VIX Index to just below $16 I thought was an indication that in 2011 I should be using the $14 and not the $15 strike for buying calls. That was a mistake as I only had one trade in 2011.

VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2010

Periods Of Low Volatility

Lets go back to 2003 to 2007 to see how well this Stock Market Trading strategy performed from 2003 to 2007.

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2003

In 2003 the bear market ended and volatility began to decline. I waited until October to finally buy my first set of $15 calls.

I noted though that the volatility was still declining. After the volatility spiked up in November to $18.98, it immediately pulled back lower. I moved from the $15 call strike to $14 and bought the $14 calls in December.

2003 was interesting as I only did two trades but I surmised based on the volatility by year-end that even the $14 may be too high as the SP was recovering and volatility was declining.

VIX Index chart weekly 2003

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2004

2004 was an excellent year for trades. When in December 2003 I determined that $14 was the call strike to be buying, it ended up that the $14 call strike was good for two trades in 2004. One in March and a second in April.

The rise in April in the VIX Index was lower than the previous rise. Just like a stock, the VIX Index was making lower highs a sure sign of declining volatility. I therefore changed from $14 to $13.

This brought two more trades. July $13 and September $13. The decline in volatility remained evident so I lowered my call strike to the $12 valuation. This meant only one more trade which took place in December 2004 when I bought the April 2005 $12 calls.

VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2004

Looking at the 2004 chart we can learn that volatility does not impact the profitability of this trade. Low volatility does not make the trade more difficult or less profitable. Instead it makes the trade easier to manage with even less risk and easier to pinpoint the call strikes to buy. Since I trade only through buying the call strikes the lower volatility means the cost to purchase the call strikes is lower but when the VIX Index runs up higher, the call premiums still move up to reflect the rise in the VIX Index. Therefore the returns are still excellent despite the low volatility since it is the rise in the VIX Index that makes these call strikes mushroom in value.

Two things to take away from the 2004 chart.

First it is important to understand that the VIX Index strategy does not mean you are trading very often. 2004 was a busier year than most and that still only meant 5 trades. This is a strategy for those who realize you do not always need to be trading in it. It is definitely a strategy for those who have a great deal of patience.

The second thing to take away from the chart is that the chance of capital loss is very limited if an investor takes the time to understand that over-trading this strategy is pointless and that volatility will decline as stocks move higher. The higher stocks climb, the lower the VIX Index call strike should be selected. 2004 was a recovery year for the SP 500. As the SP moved higher the volatility fell. As long as I realized this then trading by buying calls at lower strikes throughout the year was not only simple but had very little risk.

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2005

The following year 2005, was another good year despite the lower volatility. The VIX Index never broke above $19 in 2005. I stayed at the $12 call strike level and did 4 trades during the year. These are marked with an X. The importance of this chart is to show you that there is a level within the VIX Index at which normal trading alone will provide a lot of protection against capital loss.

In the weekly VIX Index for 2005 you can see that the VIX Index was unable to stay below $12 for more than 3 months. Once the volatility moved this low I made sure to sell out a minimum of 3 months, but often I was out 6 months. This meant that even though for example in the summer of 2005 the VIX Index fell below $11.00, I simply held my call options and waited for the VIX Index to turn higher.

You must have patience with this trade and understand that stock markets never go straight up. When volatility collapses as the SP 500 moves higher, it is only a matter of time before a correction will drive volatility back up. Corrections are a normal part of trading and in the case of this Stock Market Trading strategy, the volatility helps to protect against capital loss. However if you do not have the patience to wait for the trade to unfold and risk the capital invested, this trade will not work out.

VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2005

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2006

2006 saw only two trades as I continued to stay at the $12 call strike level. The first call purchase though was excellent as I held into June. The second trade which started with calls being purchase in October 2006 was not sold until into 2007.

Again the important thing to take away from this chart is that the $12 strike is fairly comfortable for buying the call strikes. I could have moved to $11 and that would have worked but I did not, preferring to stay at the $12 strike.

VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2006

Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index 2007

The last chart is for 2007. 2007 was the first year I had to take a small loss in December to buy back my January $12 calls and sell them again into April. The SP 500 was moving a lot higher during this period but I knew from the past history of the VIX Index that it would not last. In March the VIX Index shot up to $20 and I sold the April $12 calls for a gain of 105% after calculating in the loss from the roll into April from January.

Then in April I bought the July $12 calls which I sold July 11 2007 with the VIX Index at $17.50. However since April the VIX Index had failed to fall back below $15 and in fact was struggling to stay below $16.

Therefore on July 19 I bought the $15 calls for January which I sold in August with the VIX Index spiking to $37.00. That was the best trade using this strategy since I had started. It also warned me that the market was in trouble and even while the SP 500 pushed to an all time high of 1576 that October the VIX Index had a very hard time staying below $20.

VIX Index Weekly Chart for 2007

From using this strategy you can see that the returns are exceptional and as a bonus, it also acts as a warning signal to advise when all is not well with the overall market environment.

Summary-Stock Market Trading Strategy VIX Index for 2013

Where the markets will go from today (Feb 25 2013) I can only attempt to predict. However the VIX Index strategy is a terrific tools to use to not only profit through buying calls and Put Selling when the VIX Index pulls back to the $14 level again, but to also warn us when the market direction may once more have difficulty.

I think the VIX Index will fall lower again into March and/or April and that will be when I will buy calls 3 to 6 months out as I expect volatility will keep coming back this year as we are now into year 5 of the bull market recovery from the 2007 to 2009 bear market.

This is a very simple strategy with excellent returns with low risk most of the time. It is not a strategy that can be over traded and it is not a strategy for those who find it hard to be patient or watch their options lose value.

Any questions about this strategy you can post them to the comments below or email me at teddifullyinformed

I'd be more than happy to send you a copy of my Trading Manual at no cost whatsoever.

It's the exact same Trading Manual used by my students world-wide.

Still. I know what you're thinking. What's the catch. What do I have to buy. When is the "Upsell" coming.

Sorry, it's not going to happen. I don't promote any other Forex program and I never, ever sell or trade anyone's name or address.

I do have a Coaching Club offering additional help and material for those traders wishing to join us.

I also provide the $47 Indicator Package found at the Membership Site as a Free Bonus for those joining us.

But none of this is necessary to trade my strategy. It just makes it easier.

That's it. There's nothing more. No Upsell. No Promotions!

I personally still use all the same methods I've used over the years.

And now, you can too!

By using my strategy, along with the Indicator Package, it's easy to find trades that are profitable.

Find out how it's done. Sign up now to learn my "Latitude Line method" of trading and receive the exact same Trading Manual used at my Coaching Club. All at no charge or obligation!

I'll even send you the video, "1900 Pips Overnight" as a bonus.

Simply fill in your first name and address below and you'll be on your way to learning my program this evening.

Forex Trading Made EZ - Review

Forex Trading Made EZ is among the most popular and best selling forex trading programs. It guides on how to make money with currency trading. Forex trading made EZ system is a well thought and researched software developed by George C. Smith, formerly an airline pilot. Forex Trading Made EZ review by various trading experts also describes it as a complete and easy to understand currency trading program. You can read the following review of Forex Trading Made EZ below to know more about this amazing forex training guide.

Forex Trading Made EZ online is a training guide in which the all of research work has already been done for the users. The guide consists of educational materials in the form of 84 page PDF files and 12 tutorial videos. The combination of PDF files and videos in Forex Trading Made EZ is excellent. It becomes quite easy to learn and grasp when a trading expert explains the system in the tutorial video.

There are so many forex trading systems available in the market and most of them contain almost same kind of tools. However, they don’t emphasize much on the procedures or steps explaining how to use them and this can be quite frustrating. The one point which sets Forex Trading Made EZ system apart from other available training software is that the information is presented in a very simple and easy to understand format. The video tutorials explain all the steps required to succeed in forex market including knowledge about the software and other basic things in an intuitive manner. A user needs not to have any prior experience in forex trading markets to understand the system.

The Forex Trading Made EZ system is available in digital format and is instantly downloaded instantly from the net. It comes with a 60 days money back guarantee offer. There is an incredible email customer support system for Forex Trading Made EZ.

We hope that you have enjoyed the above presented review of Forex Trading Made EZ system and it contributed to your knowledge about this forex trading system.

ReignMan, NC, USA

I'm honestly trying to understand the negative comments about George's system, I have to fully disagree. I am not a spokes person for him or affiliated in any way. I'm actually an active poster in the Community section here on FPA.

Seriously, this is not a fly by night system, you have to actually think for yourself. You MUST sit down, and actually do some work on your own. If anything, Mr. Smith's system is out to save the future Forex community from the BS that plagues the world today. Consider it this way, this method of trading is going to separate the "go getters" from the "just quitters". I'm sure there are hundreds, if not thousands of people emailing him, so of course it's going to be hard to respond on time. Join a board and link up with someone else that's trying to learn the same thing. You two might be able to help each other through it rather than just giving up individually.

I had given up on Forex completely before I had stumbled across his system. The idea of making any sort of future with Forex seemed like a fantasy, but now I can actually say I'm learning a way to take the guess work out of trading. Entering this market, you want to have some type of system to rely on, and trading with just your fingers crossed has never worked out for anyone. I've started with the system, and yes at first I was a little lost, but after writing things out by hand, breaking down every bit of information I could, things started to make sense.

People that want the reward without the work will always have something to complain about. You have to sit down and read, and if you don't understand something, cross reference other material so you can gain a better understanding.

If you truly want this system to work for you like it does for him, you have to put the time in. It's that simple.

???CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE???

Forex Trading Made E-z

Forex Trading Made E-Z ( Strategies ) [Archive] - FXFRED - Forex. Hey all. This my Second Searching result Forex Trading Made E-Z some strategies to learn how to trade well ( please try on demo account first )

Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - YouTube 23 Jan 2010. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp;.

Forex trading made E-Z/ - Trade2Win Hello everyone I am new to Forex trading and trying establish myself while working fulltime. I have come across the Forex trading made E-Znbsp;.

Forex-Trading-Made-Ez ( George C Smith) Review Review: We haven#39;t tried the Forex-Trading-Made-Ez forex trading system by George C Smith. If you have, please kindly submit yournbsp;.

Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - YouTube 23 Jan 2010. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp;.

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Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - Video Dailymotion 23 Jan 2010. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp;.

Forex Trading Made E-Z Review - Video Dailymotion 23 Jan 2010. This Forex Trading Made E-Z review will examine the system for trading on the foreign exchange currency markets developed by George Cnbsp;.

Forex Trading Made EZ - Essential Video Training on Profitable. Instead, what you are buying with Forex Trading Made E Z is excellent training material on Forex, and what works very well indeed with manual trading.

Forex Trading Made E-Z ( Strategies ) [Archive] - FXFRED - Forex. Hey all. This my Second Searching result Forex Trading Made E-Z some strategies to learn how to trade well ( please try on demo account first )

Forex Trading Made E-Z FOREX TRADERS Learn The Method I Used To EARN 1,900 PIPS OVERNIGHT IN A LIVE TRADING ACCOUNT. The exact same strategy I use that helps menbsp;.

Forex-Trading-Made-EZ - has anyone experience with this. - Trade2Win Hi, I`ve been watching the videos of this guy George from Seattle ( might be a marketing gimmick, dunno if he really is a former pilot ), they look.

Forex Trading Made EZ - Essential Video Training on Profitable. Instead, what you are buying with Forex Trading Made E Z is excellent training material on Forex, and what works very well indeed with manual trading.

Forex Trading Made E-Z FOREX TRADERS Learn The Method I Used To EARN 1,900 PIPS OVERNIGHT IN A LIVE TRADING ACCOUNT. The exact same strategy I use that helps menbsp;.

Forex-Trading-Made-Ez ( George C Smith) Review Review: We haven#39;t tried the Forex-Trading-Made-Ez forex trading system by George C Smith. If you have, please kindly submit yournbsp;.

Forex Trading Made E-Z - Forex Trading | MetaTrader Indicators and. I trade forex for a living and also help run a successful online forex business

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Forex Trading Made EZ

Im an experienced and successful investor and trader in the currency markets, but like everyone else, I had to start somewhere! Thankfully, I started with Forex Trading Made E Z. This amazing course is what directed me down the road to actually making money in the markets.

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Participating member states have failed to reach a consensus on the introduction of the FTT following a meeting of European Finance Ministers on 9 November 2015. In public, Finance Ministers speak of real progress being made. However, there are still some major disagreements on the scope of the tax and how it should be levied. Also, some countries are making special requests which will inevitably prolong the process of reaching agreement. EU Finance Ministers meet again on 8 December and if political consensus is not reached at that meeting the prospects for an enhanced co-operation FTT look bleak. If there is consensus, the Austrian Finance Minister has stated that a commencement date of second quarter of 2017 is most likely.

Renewed political appetite and next steps

2 October 2015

Readers will have seen reports of some political progress on the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT). Participating Member States are understood to have agreed in principle to introduce a fairly broad-based FTT, initially covering equities and at least some derivatives. However, technical discussions are still needed for a range of points and the impact of the FTT will depend on the nature of the exemptions applied. Likely exemptions include bonds and other debt instruments (particularly government bonds), repos, unlisted shares and shares in small cap companies, but even these exemptions are not finally agreed. A wider range of derivatives is likely to be covered than is the case under the Italian FTT. Exemptions for derivatives over government debt and some sort of exemption or relief for so-called “real economy” hedging transactions are being actively discussed. Interestingly the taxability of pension funds is still uncertain, with the case for exemption depending on the range of other exemptions within the FTT. We expect any FTT to be issuance-based - at least for equities-. but the rate and collection mechanisms are yet to be agreed.

With so much still uncertain, readers may ask what progress has been made in the past two years. In reality, progress has been very limited. However, earlier in the summer the FTT appeared to remain in the long grass and there is a sense of renewed political appetite to implement the FTT in some form.

Moving forward, the Working Party on Tax Questions (Indirect Taxation) met on 29 September to discuss some of the issues noted above - in particular the impact on the “real economy” and pension funds. The next political discussions are likely to be at the ECOFIN meeting on 6 October. The French would like to reach political consensus before the Paris Climate Conference commencing on 10 November. Whether this is within reach is open to debate - we have been here before - but it seems likely that even if political consensus is reached quickly, technical discussions will run well into 2016. A commencement date on 1 January 2017 is still possible and therefore firms should still have contingency plans for implementation work during 2016. As noted previously the position should be clearer by the end of November this year.

EU FTT – still incubating…

5th August 2015

The pace of FTT news has certainly slowed and it has been a while since we have provided an update. In reality there is little specific to update.

Technical discussions have continued over the past few months and have led to conflicting messages. There appears to be much broader awareness among the participating member states of the key issues and options and of the ways in which these could be resolved. There has been less sign of an emerging consensus on a compromise solution on key areas – tax base, use of residence vs issuance principle, scope of derivatives tax and basis of calculation and collection mechanism. While Pierre Moscovici and others have continued to indicate expectations that the proposals will translate ultimately into action, proponents of the FTT who had hoped for political progress before the summer recess have been disappointed. For the time being, unsurprisingly, Greek matters have taken priority.

Our understanding is that the next political discussions on the FTT will be in the autumn. The question is how far and fast it then proves possible to move towards consensus. A commencement date of 1 January 2017 remains a realistic possibility, but will require significant progress in negotiations in the final quarter of this year. For those trying to assess budget requirements for any implementation programmes required during 2016, the prudent advice would be to keep a placeholder and reassess the position in late October/November, when it should become clear whether there is a willingness to compromise on scope and collection mechanisms in order to make 1 January 2017 implementation a realistic prospect.

No sign of consensus yet

13 March 2015

It has been a number of months since we last provided an update on the proposed EU FTT. However, little progress has been made.

Since our last update, finance ministers from the participating Member States released a joint statement renewing their commitment to an EU FTT. There was little information on the proposed scope of the tax beyond calling for a wide tax base and low tax rates. The finance ministers remain publically committed to a start date of 1 January 2016 but the majority of market participants are working on the assumption that this is not practicable.

The 28 Member States met at the end of February and it is clear that no progress has been made on any of the key issues. Following a request from the participating Member States, the European Commission is now providing more technical support; this may be causing the negotiations to be more protracted than they already are.

Despite a number of stakeholders arguing for a market makers exemption, the European Commission is understood to be arguing that taxing market-making activities would complement and support existing financial market regulation (although it may have something to do with the fact that the European Commission sees the taxation of market makers as a key source of revenue).

The European Commission is still arguing in favour of the ‘residence principle’. Very broadly, this is where the tax applies to financial institutions depending on where they (and/or their counterparties) are located.

There is clearly no agreement on how the tax revenue will be collected and how collection mechanisms would apply to financial institutions resident outside the EU. We understand some Member States have also complained that the collection mechanism is being discussed before agreement has been reached on the scope of the tax.

We understand the next FTT working group is not scheduled to meet again until May. This leaves very little time to agree on the scope and mechanics of the EU FTT and the proposed start date of 1 January 2016 looks increasingly unlikely.

EU FTT state of play – self-imposed deadline likely to be missed

11 December 2014

The ECOFIN Council held a press conference on Tuesday morning and discussed progress on the EU FTT. The Italian Presidency also presented a report on the state of play relating to the EU FTT proposal. Download the state of play report.

As we have noted in our previous blog posts, the next Presidency of the Council of the European Union is Latvia. As Latvia is not one of the 11 participating Member States, some believe the proposed EU FTT will not sit high on its agenda and negotiations may falter. The report shares the Italian Presidency’s views on how to progress and encourages the incoming Presidency to give the issue “political attention”.

The report notes specific areas where further work is still required. The following fundamental issues remain outstanding:

The scope of the FTT for derivatives;

The taxation principles for shares and derivatives;

A decision as to whether the residence and/or the issuance principle should be followed; and

The French Finance Minister briefly spoke at the press conference and reiterated that the group of 11 participating Member States remains “collectively committed” but he admitted that agreement will probably not be reached until the first half of 2015. The Italian Presidency had originally hoped for agreement to be reached by the end of 2014. With the repeated deferral of self-imposed deadlines for a compromise, it remains to be seen whether a revised EU FTT will ever be agreed upon. It will be interesting to see how much attention the Latvian Presidency pays this issue early next year.

EU FTT negotiations – are you keeping up?

10 November 2014

News about the negotiations between the participating Member States continues to emerge at a fast pace. Currently, it is difficult to assess how strong the prospects are of some form of FTT emerging in time for implementation by January 2016. And if this does happen, the key question is how wide the scope might be.

It appears the proposals are currently proceeding in a less than predictable way. Early last week it looked as if the most likely outcome would be a narrow-based FTT, similar to UK Stamp Duty Reserve Tax (SDRT) and French FTT. Implementation in 2016 appeared likely due to German acceptance that a narrow-based FTT would be better than none at all. Questions about exemptions, revenue sharing, collection mechanics and the position of market makers remained. However it sounded as though a pragmatic compromise was in prospect.

The end of the week saw an unexpected turn of events, which will concern both EU Member States outside the FTT zone and other non-EU countries. News has emerged that Austria appears to be seeking to drive the discussions of the participating 11 countries back in the direction of an FTT which applies to a much wider range of instruments. Under this proposal, the FTT would be residence based, applying to counterparties depending on location tests, rather than applying only to securities issued in the 11 participating states. It appears that Hans Joerg Schelling, the Austrian Finance Minister, has publicly stated a position in favour of a wider tax base, although with rates possibly lowered from the original proposed rate. It was known that there was concern about the possible impact of an issuance based tax on the Austrian stock exchange. However, no-one had predicted the emergence of Austria as the unlikely champion of a broad based FTT. The only exemption Austria is known to be advocating is one for government bonds. It became clear shortly after the initiation of the original 2013 enhanced cooperation process that a number of participating States were being advised by their own government debt management offices. They were being advised that the original FTT proposals would increase the cost of government bonds and this message appears to have been taken into account.

Many observers were placing their bets on a political compromise to get a narrow-based FTT in place by the start of 2016. However, the latest news suggests that there is still a risk that proposals for a much wider tax base may be pushed through at the last minute. Now seems to be time for stakeholders to make one more vigorous attempt to ensure any FTT proposals that are pushed through do not damage the health of fragile markets. Bank research in April and August 2014 suggested that the Italian FTT had resulted in a decline of 20%-30% in Italian equities trading, notwithstanding a market maker exemption. Therefore a tax directed towards the original broad based EU FTT proposals could be expected to have much more damaging and permanent effects.

Is the EU-FTT going to be deferred again?

22 October 2014

It appears that participating Member States are struggling to make much progress with proposals for the EU Financial Transaction Tax (FTT). Earlier this year, the 11 participating Member States, the Italian Presidency of the European Council and President-elect of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, all expressed the desire to see real progress with the proposed EU FTT.

Although the Italian Presidency has sought to give the EU FTT renewed momentum, it is now becoming clear that fundamental differences of opinion between the EU-11 remain.

We understand these differences to be:

It is still not agreed whether the EU FTT should have a broad scope, in line with the position publically adopted by the German Government or a narrow scope similar to existing French and Italian FTTs.

There is also a continuing debate around whether the residence or issuance principle should prevail or a combination of the two. Smaller Member States are also concerned that an issuance-based tax will raise little revenue for them.

Revenue Allocation

There has been discussion of alternative allocation models and potential sharing of revenues, but as yet we understand that no agreement has been reached. Whilst some detailed work has been undertaken on collection mechanisms, the fundamental question of what revenues should be allocated to smaller Member States has not been resolved.

It now seems unlikely that the Italian Presidency will be able to make the substantive progress hoped for earlier in the summer. Indeed the FTT was taken off the agenda of a recent ECOFIN meeting. Unless there is a last minute political compromise (which could probably only be reached on a narrow based FTT, taking some of the more controversial elements off the table) a start date of 1 January 2016 is unlikely. The next two presidencies of the European Council, Latvia and Luxembourg are also not participating Member States and it remains to be seen whether substantive progress is possible in 2015.

Participating member states reiterate their commitment to a FTT – but not much more!

The member states participating in the FTT-enhanced co-operation process have reiterated their intention to implement a FTT in a statement given to the ECOFIN meeting today. The statement confirms that:

Work will focus on a progressive implementation of the tax, likely starting with shares and ‘some’ derivatives

The aim is to finalise proposals by the end of 2014 with the first step being implemented no later than 1 January 2016

Participating member states may be permitted to include additional products from commencement

This matches our expectations but the statement’s lack of detail suggests that the participants may be far from agreeing some of the key aspects of the tax. These include whether to keep the residence principle (although this is uncertain), how far the final directive commits to a progressive implementation, what type derivatives are included on day one and the sort of transaction and entity level exemptions which may be introduced. Clearly, a lot of work is still required. Slovenia did not sign the statement following the collapse of the government over the weekend. If Slovenia dropped out of the process, it would take the participating group closer to its minimum threshold of nine member states.

Member states that have so far been strongly opposed to the FTT (including the UK and Sweden) have today reiterated their opposition. The possibility of a further legal challenge from the UK remains.

UK's legal challenge dismissed

30 April 2014

The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has released its judgement (external link) on the UK’s request to annul the European Council’s decision to authorise the use of enhanced cooperation procedure to implement a FTT. The CJEU concluded that the UK’s challenge was premature and must be rejected.

The UK argued that use of the enhanced cooperation to introduce an EU FTT (as proposed by the Commission on 14 February 2013) would have extraterritorial effect and would result in non-participating member states incurring implementation and collection costs under the mutual assistance Directive. The UK claimed this would infringe European law on use of the enhanced cooperation (particularly Articles 326 and 332 Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). The CJEU rejected the UK’s request on the basis that its arguments were founded on the draft Commission Directive, which was not part of the decision to authorise the use of enhanced cooperation. The challenge was therefore premature. The CJEU did not consider the UK’s specific arguments on the draft Commission Directive. It simply noted that if and when an FTT is adopted under enhanced cooperation, it may be possible to challenge the measures at that point.

The UK government has always made clear that the original challenge was being made to protect its position (see our update on 19 April 2013 ). The CJEU’s judgement suggests that a subsequent challenge could be admissible, depending on the form and scope of any FTT. Given the direction of travel of continuing political discussions on an EU-11 FTT, it may be that a legal challenge proves not to be necessary. As a result, the UK government may be relaxed about the decision.

In terms of the wider debate, it appears likely that the EU-11 FTT may initially involve a tax on equities and equity derivatives only (i. e. similar to the Italian FTT), with a possible wider scope tax at a later stage. However, much remains to be agreed, particularly on further phases of the tax and the position of smaller member states. Further details may be available after The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting on 5/6 May 2014. It is still possible that a limited scope or first phase FTT could be in place from 1 January 2015 but that is no means certain. Watch this space as more should emerge over the next few weeks given political drivers to have an announcement ahead of the European elections.

Whilst many continue to question whether the proposed European FTT will happen, it was reported last week that some progress was being made.

France and Germany have reportedly agreed on the shape of the tax but the level of support for the proposals from the nine other participating member states is unclear. It is not obvious how much will be done to mitigate the concerns of both the financial sector and industry about the tax’s economic impact. Whilst changes to the existing draft Directive are likely, we understand some derivatives will stay within scope (although their type is unclear) and the tax will be implemented over two stages – a phased introduction. A phased introduction and significant modifications may also raise legal issues under the enhanced cooperation process.

For the time being, it seems the residence principle and issuance principle will remain. There has been no indication of whether the controversial counterparty principle (involving charging entities not in the FTT zone where they transact with counterparties which are) will be removed. However, from a European Commission update to its FTT webpage this month it appears the Commission is seeking to defend this from legal challenge.

Separately, another paper from the European Council’s Legal Service (CLS) came into the public sphere last week. This time, it briefly argued that the inclusion of spot currency transactions would “not necessarily be incompatible” with EU law. However, the CLS opinion admits that the inclusion of spot currency transactions would “exceed the Council’s power of amendment” and if pursued, the entire enhanced cooperation process would have to start again. The European Commission has also consistently stated the taxation of spot currency transaction is not legal.

A surprising development came on Tuesday of last week when a Brussels-based journalist tweeted that the European Court of Justice is expected to rule, without a hearing, on the UK’s legal challenge on 30 April. This has not been confirmed officially, but if accurate, suggests the legal challenge is unlikely to succeed.

The Taxation Commissioner, Algirdas Semeta, recently stated in an interview he was “cautiously optimistic” a revised proposal would be issued before May’s European elections. However, to most observers autumn seems a more realistic timeframe. It looks as if an EU FTT in some form retains strong political backing in key member states. It may well be driven forward despite continuing concerns about the potential impact on both the financial markets and wider economy.

February FTT news

24 February 2014

At a press conference on 19 February 2014, both Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande expressed continued support for an EU financial transaction tax (FTT). They also showed support for the pursuit of political agreement before the European elections in May at the conference, which followed a French/German government meeting. Merkel said good progress was being made and although there isn’t yet EU-11 consensus Hollande stated he would “prefer an imperfect tax to no tax at all”.

Both the French and German Finance Ministers have also hinted a staggered introduction is possible, though both parties will probably have different objectives. France is known to support the exemption of derivatives (and deferral may help achieve this) although Germany (particularly the Social Democratic Party) wants full inclusion. It is likely that a deferred introduction would suit both parties.

On Tuesday 18 February, the Economic and Financial Affairs (ECOFIN) convened and the FTT was due to be on the agenda. However, the official discussion was postponed and only informal discussions took place amongst the EU-11. There is clearly political will amongst major participating member states for an FTT but so far, this has not translated into a workable compromise

The European Commission now appears to accept that a phased introduction is a distinct possibility. Taxation Commissioner, Algirdas Semeta, conceded in a speech to the European Parliament that “there would be nothing wrong with a gradual implementation of the tax”.

We believe a possible compromise will be to introduce a FTT covering equities and potentially equity derivatives with a phased addition for some other asset classes.

However as noted in previous posts, a phased introduction is not necessarily an easy solution – and would create practical difficulties for implementation. There would also be legal question marks. It is debatable whether all the elements of the tax would need to be identified in the FTT Directive, with different start dates to various financial instruments/transactions. Would the general principles of the next steps be sufficient? It is also unclear whether a substantially changed FTT would be challenged as it is not within the original enhanced cooperation legal framework. With all the legal and political questions remaining, even political agreement before May 2014 seems a challenging objective.

Update on continuing FTT discussions

20 January 2014

An informal meeting of the EU-11 took place on 16 and 17 January. A couple of papers prepared in advance of these discussions suggest that the discussions focussed on some of the key design elements of the tax. These include, whether the residence or issuance principle should be adopted, the merits of exemptions for unlisted shares and small caps, public and private bonds and notably a partial exclusion or phased introduction for derivatives. A technical paper also suggests that an exemption for repos and securities lending is under active consideration.

Whilst this confirms that many of the obvious exemptions from the FTT are under consideration, the implication is that there isn’t much evidence of a more radical rewrite or shelving of the original Commission proposals at this stage. Indeed, the material we have seen coming out of the Greek Presidency proposes only a light redraft of the current Commission proposal, although acknowledging that key design issues are yet to be resolved. The Greek Presidency also propose that existing and proposed regulatory reporting requirements (e. g. under MIFID, MIFID II/MIFIR, and EMIR) should be capable of supporting FTT implementation, reporting and enforcement.

In terms of timing, the Greek Presidency is expected to give momentum to the political process and has already pencilled in an ECOFIN debate on 18 February and political agreement for an ECOFIN meeting on 6 May. This is an extremely challenging timetable given the current lack of political consensus and the legal uncertainties highlighted by the UK legal challenge and the previous legal opinion from the Council’s legal service. It seems likely that discussions may well extend into 2015 with a 1 January 2016 commencement date more likely than 1 January 2015.

Given European parliamentary elections, and the difficulties in securing political consensus, it may be that a phased introduction would be an attractive compromise. This however raises some important questions as to whether a phased introduction is permissible under the existing enhanced co-operation procedure. If upfront agreement is required on the full scope of the tax, this presents obvious political difficulties. The alternative of leaving the design of certain aspects of the tax (e. g. inclusion of derivatives) to be agreed at a later date is also problematic. Under this route additional measures may be introduced under delegated or implementing acts with the Commission responsible for initiating that process.

Renewed discussions on the continent

16 December 2013

FTT discussions amongst participating Member States have been picking up momentum in recent weeks. Discussions during an informal EU-11 meeting at the end of November reportedly focussed on the scope of the proposed tax as well the possibility of phased introduction. We understand there was discussion of the negative legal opinion produced by the Council’s Legal Service in September (see our 11 September post). It is widely known that the Commission Legal Service has produced a “non paper” in response to this opinion, and has dissented from the arguments set out by the Council Legal Service. The “non paper” has not been officially published.

The Commission working party on the FTT met on 12 December. The Lithuanian presidency prepared a paper suggesting that exemptions for portfolio compression, collateral transfers, repos and sovereign debt would be discussed. It is noteworthy that these discussions are still framed by the existing Commission proposal and it seems that little progress is being made on wider political agreement.

Germany will still be instrumental in driving the FTT forward and it is noteworthy that the Coalition agreement pledges support for swift implementation of a European FTT with a wide tax base and low tax rate.

Interestingly, the coalition agreement states that the EU FTT should include foreign currency transactions which had been exempt from FTT under the current draft proposal. The European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) had recommended inclusion of spot currency trades in June – but in July the European Commission responded by saying this would be contrary to international law. So the apparent attempt to include this suggests there is anxiety about tax base and revenues.

In contrast to Germany’s position, France and Italy are known to support an EU-FTT with a narrower scope - possibly limiting the scope of the tax to the “issuance” principle only. Others (particularly smaller participating Member States) are concerned an “issuance” based tax will disproportionately benefit larger states and therefore still favour the Commission’s proposal.

It is clear there is still life in the FTT proposals – but with major questions of scope, impact and national interest to be negotiated, as well as potential legal challenges, nothing is likely to take effect before 1 January 2015. Given the lack of progress to date 1 January 2016 may be a more realistic target! The form of any eventual compromise is difficult to judge at this stage.

House of Lords report on EU FTT - "alive and deadly"

13 December 2013

On Tuesday, the House of Lords European Committee on Economics and Financial Affairs published a short report on the proposed EU FTT. Whilst the content of the report will not come as a surprise to many, some of the revelations made by key people within the EU Commission as part of the Committee evidence are of more interest.

Heinz Zourek, Director General of Taxation and Customs Union at the European Commission, and the person responsible for taxation and customs department within the European Commission admitted to the Committee on 2 October that the Commission has “yet to collect all of the information necessary to conduct a thorough analysis”. Mr Zourek also argued during his evidence to the Committee (to some disbelief) that stock exchanges in third countries would benefit from a financial incentive in return for assistance in collection of the tax.

The Committee also expresses surprise at the claim made by Manfred Bergmann (Director of Indirect Taxation and Tax Administration at the European Commission and Heinz Zourek’s number two in respect of FTT) that there would be no legal obligation on UK authorities to collect the tax. This claim appears to be in direct contravention to the UK’s obligations under the Mutual Recovery Directive and indeed contradicts what Heinz Zourek gave in his own evidence in October.

The report ends with a brief discussion of the recent legal opinion produced by the European Council’s Legal Service (see our blog post from 11 September 2013) and finds the opinion “highly persuasive”. The Committee concludes that in its response to the CLS opinion, the European Commission has relied on “assertions which are not backed by the detailed reasoning which the Council Legal Service opinion calls for”. The Committee did not have the benefit of reading the Commission Legal Service “non paper” which robustly defends the Commission’s view that the current FTT proposals conform to customary international law and EU law.

The House of Lords report is expected to be debated in the House of Lords at a later date.

German coalition support for EU FTT - will it rekindle process?

31 October 2013

In the last 24 hours, it’s been reported that a “grand coalition” between Merkel’s CDU/SDU party and the SPD will seek further EU FTT progress. Before the German elections in September, many commentators said the EU FTT’s fate lay in Germany’s hands. It now appears - perhaps unsurprisingly - that the next German government will continue to lend support.

Lead negotiators for both the CDU and SPD have shown support. Commenting on the second round of coalition talks on 30 October, SPD negotiator Martin Schulz said “we agreed to push ahead with the financial transaction tax”.

He added: "When a government is formed and begins work in the coming weeks, it will launch this initiative at the next European summit."

"Three big, grand coalition parties are placing this on the agenda and pushing it," said Herbert Reul, the CDU's lead negotiator on Europe. Interestingly, Herbert added that the 11 interested nations still need persuading and have to "do their homework."

There are rumours that the “grand coalition” want an FTT with a broad scope and low tax rates (with exemptions for pension funds and small investors). However, with a German coalition not expected before Christmas, it is likely to be some time before any renewed momentum translates into outcomes. In the meantime, timetable and the form of any amendments to the scope of the draft Directive remain unclear.

Legal obstacles to EU FTT in its current form

11 September 2013

The EU Council legal service has issued an opinion expressing the unqualified view that the FTT proposals are not compliant with EU law. The opinion is confined to a question raised in the Working Party on Tax Questions – Indirect Taxation, specifically about the deemed establishment principle. This is, broadly, the provision which deems an entity outside the FTT zone but which is transacting with an FTT zone entity as itself established in the counterparty state, and requires both parties to pay FTT to that state. It is this principle which means, for example, that a UK bank, US bank or Chinese bank transacting with, say, a Spanish bank in US securities is liable to pay Spanish FTT. This is one of the most significant extra territorial elements of the FTT. The legal service has concluded that this

Breaches international law norms required to be respected under the Treaty on European Union (Maastricht Treaty)

Is not compatible with Article 327 TFEU as it infringes the taxing competencies of non-participating member states

Is discriminatory and leads to distortion of competition

The UK’s legal challenge (PDF 714KB) to the reference of FTT to the enhanced cooperation process (see our 19 April post) relied expressly on point 2 (though potentially more broadly expressed and not confined to the deemed establishment principle) – so that, indirectly, the opinion supports the UK legal challenge. The other issues in the legal challenge are less clearly tied to the points covered by the conclusions of the Legal Service but there is an overlap in the issues considered.

The role of the Council in the context of the enhanced cooperation process is important, as it was the Council which referred the FTT to enhanced cooperation (Council Decision 2013/52/EU). It is therefore the Council which is potentially subject to legal challenge, and against which the UK has brought its action.

The opinion considers the supporting arguments for the conclusion reached in more detail. However, it should be noted that because the opinion is expressly confined to the validity of the establishment principle, it leaves wide open the question of whether on fuller analysis the tax would breach EU law on other grounds as well.

The opinion and extent to which it has been reported are likely to mean this legal analysis will present a further significant hurdle for the EU FTT to clear. When added to increasing concern about the practical impact of FTT, it is bound to make it difficult to progress the proposals in their current form. This reinforces the likelihood that the proposals will be substantially watered down before adoption. One possible outcome would be the reduction of FTT in scope to the issuance principle, which would give a clear nexus between the charging state and the transaction, and would fit with UK SDRT, French and Italian FTTs. But either this would need to be confined to securities, or a solution would need to be found to the derivatives problem, as OTC derivatives are not issued and are not easy to catch except by complex mechanics relating to the underlying security.

Alternatively it may be necessary to confine the residence principle to entities established in participating member states on more conventional tests (and it is also possible that some of the other tests would be subject to challenge). Any exemptions are likely to have to be much more clearly defined and workable than the current provision to exclude transactions which can be demonstrated to have no effective connection with a participating member state. The problems with this are noted by the opinion, which dismisses the carve out as unworkable in practical terms.

So, the challenge of redesigning the FTT could be considerable. However, the drive to raise revenue and the political capital invested in the current proposals may well make it too difficult to abandon the tax entirely, while a series of national FTTs or similar taxes subject to different national rules would not be welcome for taxpayers either. The next few weeks, particularly after the German elections, may give a better sense for how the conflicting pressures will be resolved – and what the timescale will be.

Signs of shifting positions.

The European Parliament (“EP”) today adopted the ECON opinion on the Commission’s draft FTT directive. This was expected but it is important to note that the EP only has a consultative role in relation to the FTT.

What is more significant is that during the debate in the EP, Algirdas Semeta (the EU Commissioner responsible for the FTT) acknowledged publicly for the first time that the Commission will consider amendments to the current proposals. Although the Commission could not accept the EP’s proposals to include spot currency transactions and introduce a “transfer of legal title principle”, citing “legal reasons”, Semeta was prepared to consider proposals for lower initial rates for government bonds and pension funds, and that the application of the FTT to market makers and non-financial companies, particularly SMEs should be further examined. However the tone of the comments was that the EP’s proposed amendments form a useful basis for continuing discussions with member states, rather than being accepted en masse.

Turning to specifics, the EP’s opinion (PDF 314.KB) and the publication by the commission of a QA on the current proposals (PDF 277KB) highlight some softening positions from even the FTT’s strongest supporters:

Market makers: There is recognition that where a market maker is providing liquidity that FTT exemption may be appropriate. However the Commission still struggles to distinguish between activities “useful for market liquidity” from proprietary trading activities and therefore seem to be lukewarm on an exemption.

Government bonds: The Commission is still resistant to an exclusion but is prepared to consider a lower rate and perhaps a delayed introduction.

Pension Funds: Again the Commission is resistant to an exclusion but is prepared to consider lower rates – although perhaps only for transactions involving the pension fund itself (rather than intermediary transactions)

Repos: The Commission’s QA suggests that the rate could be proportionate to the term of the repo where the maturity is less than one year (see example 59) and the EP propose a rate of 0.01% for financial transactions with a maturity of up to 3 months.

However there is little evidence of a public change of stance on some other important issues:

Derivatives: Neither the Commission nor the EP proposed exclusions for derivatives, although the Commission shows no enthusiasm for the significant extension to the issuance principle proposed by the EP.

CCPs: The Commission argues in its QA that one should “look through” CCPs. It is debatable whether this is correct in terms of the current wording of the directive but would mean that the interposition of an FTT-zone CCP wouldn’t taint transactions between non FFT-zone financial institutions but likewise a non-FTT zone institutions trading with the FTT zone would not be able escape FTT on its leg of the transaction merely by clearing through a non-FTT zone CCP

Collateral: The Commission is of the view that a legal transfer of collateral is separately subject to FTT, suggesting instead that collateral should be pledged rather than legally transferred.

Economic substance: The Commission has failed to provide any clarity on what sort of transactions may not be subject to the FTT as a result of there being no link between the economic substance of the transaction and a FTT jurisdiction.

Counterparty identification: The Commission ducks the real issues on this, instead hoping trading platforms will “apply relevant IT tools and other solutions” to resolve this!

Accounting and reporting: The Commission clearly expects non-FTT zone member states to assist collection under mutual co-operation mechanisms. This places London at a significant disadvantage compared to (say) New York and Hong Kong.

In reality, we still expect much more radical rewrite of current proposals, but Semeta’s comments are an important first step.

Update from the European Commission

The European Commission have updated their FTT webpage (external link). This confirms a delay to the previously published commencement date of 1 January 2014.

However the Commission appear to be still of the view that if political agreement is found before the end of 2013 the FTT – in some shape - could still enter into force towards the middle of 2014. The Commission make no comment on the actual future shape of the FTT or the sorts of concessions that are currently under discussion. We have commented on these in previous posts.

In addition the Commission have formally published a couple of QA documents on the current FTT proposals. Some of this material has previously been in circulation but the papers nevertheless contain some useful insight into the Commission’s proposals. We will comment further in a future update.

European Parliament ECON vote

On 18 June the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) voted in favour (albeit with some proposed changes) of the Commission’s FTT proposals. It has always been recognised that the European Parliament is a strong supporter of the Commission’s proposals. However, the ECON’s opinion is not binding and although the proposed changes suggest that the committee recognises some of the key concerns with the current proposals they are unlikely to adequately address those concerns. It remains likely that on-going discussions between Member States and the Commission will produce much more substantial change.

In Currency Trading, traders often use technical language that can be intimidating when you're just starting out. When you see a word you don't understand, you should refer to the Commonly Used Forex Terms. As you familiarize yourself with the language, you'll find that your understanding of Forex concepts as a whole will improve.

Technical Analysis

To develop a strategy, traders use a variety of tools and techniques. Some traders perform Technical Analysis by using Currency Charts to study the market. This technique assumes that past market movements will help predict future activity. The effectiveness of Technical Analysis makes it a very popular trading technique.

Fundamental Analysis

Other traders use Fundamental Analysis for their trading strategy. They follow the effect of economic, social and political events on currency prices. Reading specialized Forex News can help keep you in touch with the Forex community to find out how events might affect currency prices.

Practice makes perfect!

Every trader makes mistakes, so it's a good idea to familiarize yourself with a trading environment before you invest your money. To improve your trading skills, try opening a free demo trading account with a Forex company.

Know the Risks

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Traditional price charts plot using fixed units of time. Is this the only sensible way to chart? Should we consider charts that ignore the passage of time?

In this article, we will look at the merits of using time charts and the value of alternative charting methods that exclude time.

Why Time Charts?

The first reason is the lack of technology in the past. Exchanges simply did not have the means to make real-time data accessible for market participants. Yes, we had the ticker tape, but it was not available to everyone. Even if it was, there was no software to produce charts on the fly.

Chartists had to draw charts by hand. The clearly feasible method was to do draw daily charts as end-of-day market data was more readily available. And traders back then could wait for the market to close, and update their charts leisurely for analysis.

The second reason stems from logical thinking and not technological limits. Every trading day represents a complete cycle from market opening when traders react to overnight news, to midday sluggishness, to market closing when large funds might adjust their positions.

This is why it makes sense to compare trading days to each other. And since daily charts use fixed units of time. The idea of plotting time charts became the convention.

Charts without Time

However, as technology advances and markets trade round the clock with higher volatility, traders have experimented with a variety of charting methods. These alternative methods usually exclude time. (Gann is turning in his grave right now.)

Lets take a look at these alternative charting methods and study their pros and cons.

The same ES trading session shown using 4 different chart types.

Range Charts

A Brazilian trader, Vincent Nicolellis, came up with range charts in 1995. Basically, range charts plot bars based on units of price movement, and not time. Instead of choosing a time-frame like 5-minute, we choose a range like 5-tick. The chart prints a new bar for every 5-tick movement in the market.

Range charts takes time out of the equation and focus on only one variable: price action. If price does not move, the chart does not move. Hence, some traders claim that range charts help to filter out non-trending markets and avoid whipsaws.

While this sounds like a price action traders dream, you have to take note that range bars are not useful for OHLC analysis. We force each range bar to break once it exceeds the specified range, so the bars always close at the extreme top or bottom. Because of this artificial close, most bar patterns and candlestick patterns are ineffective on range charts.

Volume Charts

Volume analysis is a major focus for technical analysts. It is not surprising that we have charts based on units of volume. The example chart above prints a new bar for each 13,000 volume transacted.

Volume is the fuel of market movements. Having fixed volume charts, we can watch what the market does for the same amount of fuel. Hence, constant volume charts make sense to many traders.

Moreover, unlike range charts, we are able to apply bar pattern analysis on constant volume charts.

Tick Charts

Tick charts are similar to volume charts. However, instead of using a volume base, it uses a tick base. One tick refers to a transaction, regardless of the transacted volume.

Many scalping trading strategies use tick charts. Jjrvat mentioned that his price-based approach works best with tick charts. In Mastering the Trade, Second Edition: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups , John Carter also recommended tick charts for his Scalper trading setup.

Are Charts Without Time the Holy Grail?

No. These charts without time are just like another way of displaying price information.

Learning them is like learning how to use a new indicator. There is no perfect indicator, and no perfect chart type. They work differently and you must learn to use them well.

Be very careful when trying out charts without a time base. It changes the very foundation of how you build your charts. Hence, it has wider implications than adding any one indicator.

The first step is to figure out what setting to use. One way to start exploring is to take the long-term average range/volume of the time-frame you usually trade, and use that as the setting for your charts. For instance, if you trade the 5-minute time-frame, and the 200-period average range of a 5-minute bar is 4 ticks. You can plot a range chart using 4-tick as the constant range.

You must also bear in mind that most trading methods use time charts. Im not saying that all trading tools will fail without a time base. Some methods might even work better due to less noise. The only way to find out is to test before using a trading strategy on a non time-based chart.

I do see great value in these alternative charts for intraday trading. As mentioned above, daily charts makes sense because each bar contains an entire trading cycle of a single day. However, for intraday charts, this logic does not apply. A 5-minute bar at market opening is vastly different from a 5-minute bar after market hours. Hence, non time-based charts seem like a better option for intraday trading.

If you want to learn more about charts without time, there are two more popular types of non time-based charts:

Spreads have always been one of the most important things forex traders are looking at when selecting their forex broker. While this is indeed an important aspect of forex trading often enough the importance of spreads is overrated as there are many more things one need to consider before selecting a forex broker and I dont consider spreads as being even in the top 5 of the most important features. Stability, regulation, execution, customer service and being a broker that isnt infamous for not returning money comes to mind much before that. In my opinion, most retail clients shouldnt care one bit about spreads because they almost dont matter to them and those who do need to look at spreads (highfrequency traders for instance) already know where to go.

However, I cant ignore the percepted importance of spreads and all forex brokers use this feature in order to promote their business. Just look at forex banners on all sites.

This recently gave stimulus to the rise of forex spreads comparison sites which by one method or another display spreads from various brokers and give traders a full picture of whats going on before making a deposit.

I covered the first ever such website called FX Intelligence here. I wrote back than that This is an important tool that finally takes the broker review sites to the next level: instead of reading biased and non-biased reviews traders are able to track broker performance real time. Hopefully the platform is connected to live accounts and not demo ones otherwise the tool won’t be 100% accurate as some brokers tend to display different spreads at their demo and live accounts.

In my opinion. these sites are widgets with sites and not sites with widgets so I cant really see a real business model developing here. Its also hard for Google to index these sites as they got little or no content at all and once big sites like fxstreet (hint hint Francesc) or forexfactory develop such a widget themselves (it costs almost nothing to do so) these independent sites will simply vanish.

Another issue is that its really hard to actually verify whether these sites show actual results and whether displayed are live and not demo feeds.

Ever since FX intelligence was launched, to no surprise similar websites started sprouting (apologies for the screenshots quality, Im working on that).

mt4spreads is another very useful spreads comparison site. It shows the spreads divided into majors, euro pairs, dollar pairs, gbp pairs and so on. You can filter by currency pair, time frame or by session. I didnt really manage to fully understand whether it shows the average spread or minimum spread during the time session as the login process seems to be a bit buggy at this point.

But you can click any spread by any broker to see more detailed data which is actually more confusing than helpful in my view.

While FX Intelligence and mt4spreads got that up-to-date flashy design, mt4i/spread seems somewhat outdated. Moreover, according to its own statement it shows only demo spreads and this is simply worthless. MT4i however has additional services and this spreads comparison isnt the focus of its site, rather it is regarded the way it should be another nice gadget.

Coincidentally just as I was about to seal this post another comparison tool popped up! This time it was matafs Arnaud with his own version of broker spreads comparison . Unlike the sites above mataf is beefed up with content therefore this tool should be more popular. At this point it isnt perfect as it displays only a couple of brokers and still requires more work before becoming a visually useful tool however I must recommend its spreads comparison methodology: unlike all others Arnaud doesnt trust the broker feeds or APIs and derives the data from the charts themselves using Optical Character Recognition which takes screenshots of charts and compares them every few seconds. Sounds complicated? you bet! but this also makes it most accurate.

Kinetic Securities was originally established as an advisory firm specialising in share derivative strategies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), and has since developed a team of experienced analysts and brokers who are able to advise across all major asset classes and international markets. With our head office based in the city of Sydney, we have strong relationships with many leading financial institutions in Australia, providing an array of financial instruments.

As forecast here all last year, some of the majors now agree Australian unemployment will peak near 6.0%.

we are still in the midst, perhaps only at the beginning, of a period of sustained and significant global growth.

the most pressing social issue Australia will have to deal with over the next one to two decades, will be what to do with all the wealth.

The challenge for Australian business is to snap up all the good talent currently available, before it really becomes a struggle to find anyone who isn’t already well employed and also paid well.

The Australian dollar will continue to be driven higher by all the well known factors,

US$1.03 by the end of this year.

2010 will see more sustained economic recovery

It has been a great year in 2009.

We saw the last of the pessimism rung from the market, followed by one of the best rallies global financial markets have ever seen, in equities, commodities and non-USD currencies.

Calling the absolute market low, our “Ring the Bell” report, and the start of the long term fresh bull market on March 11th, has enabled us to keep a good handle on things this year.

We foresaw the Gold and Oil rallies from near the bottom, and this time last year we were the only Australian dollar bull, calling 89 cents for the end of 2009, while the rest of the market forecast 69 to 55 cents. Even in mainstream economics we were the first to see the rapid recovery of China and Australia, without the need for a US recovery. For example our consistent forecast that Australian unemployment would peak between 5.7% and 6.1%, often ridiculed, has proved correct. Other firsts included the call for the RBA to stop at 3.00%, and our forecast for rate hikes by year end, when the major banks were forecasting rates would be at 2.00% by now. Where others have been surprised, we have triumphed.

Now, that was last year, what of next year?

There is a saying we should all consider on a daily basis, “today a rooster, tomorrow a feather duster”. When we are most confident, can be when we are most exposed to the prospect of a valuable learning experience. That said, here we go again.

The year 2010 will see more sustained economic recovery, but we don’t think it will be all that spectacular in terms of GDP growth in the western economies. Asia will dominate even more than it has in 2009, and the US will enjoy only moderate growth. South America will surprise on the upside, and overall global growth will be very strong.

ATIC Shenzhen 2009

Kinetic Securities will be attending ATIC Shenzhen 2009, the largest and most prestigious financial expo in China.

One of the most attractive features of trading binary options is the risk/reward scenario laid out in front of you before you commit any money. This is by far the fastest way to trade binaries. Anything faster wouldnt make sense. If you feel like youre ready to trade in 60 seconds, then you can select a broker from the list below. They all offer this form of trading. Its imperative that you have a strategy that wins at a high rate. Each of these brokers offer different payout rates, so be sure to take the best one possible.

Unlike the 15 minute binary option. the 60 second trade presents an opportunity to invest and make money in the fastest amount of time on the web. This fast paced process requires you to be on top of your game. Once you hit the call or put button, there is no turning back. Having a good working idea of how to trade like this will determine your chances of making money. Without preparation and practice you might as well just not bother. Trading this on a demo platform is a must before you risk any capital.

One of the leading providers in this technique is Traderush. who has built quite a reputation on how to help their clients maximize the most out of this trade. This broker offers some of the most competitive payout rates as well. This is an important part of trading any binary trading method. Another nice aspect is having the ability to lower your trade size to $5. Risking less money is a big factor for new traders. There is no sense of risking a lot if you are not comfortable trading.

One of the most important tools in trading Forex on the short term binary market is the MetaTrader chart. This charting package allows you to keep track of each currency available to trade. Using these charts will allow you to find better entries than with the binary platform the broker gives you. The only way to be successful with this form of trading is by having the tools on your side like Metatrader 4.0 .

In order for you to maximize your chances of making money this way, try to follow all trends that show up on the charts. No method is full proof, but it will help you visualize a decent setup this way. Its been said many times over, that sticking with a trend is your best bet.

Most likely, if youre thinking about trading sixty second options, than you are willing to be more aggressive. As a day trader, you could be done with your day in one minute. Although you may want to trade this style all day, youre better off mixing it up with the other formats. This will definitely keep your risk down over the long run. We recommend you come up with a good working strategy to allow you the best chances. Approach this with smart money management as well. Dont just trade to trade either. Get the Demo account below.

60 Second Binary Options

As the online trading environment continues to modernize, we are constantly seeing new innovations for the different ways traders can profit from the financial markets. One of the newest examples of this can be seen in 60 Second binary options, which offer a contract expiration period of one minute . Since their introduction, however, the 60 Second option has become widely popular, and a large variety of trading brokers now offer this trade to their clients.

Factors to Consider When Trading

Before entering into these types of trades, it is important to consider a few factors. First, and possibly most important, is the need to have a strong familiarity with your binary options trading platform. It should be clear that you will not want to place your first-ever trade (and risk your hard earned money) on a platform that you have not tested.

Come Trade the Fastest Market Available in 60 Seconds

After you are completely aware of how to open, close, and adjust your trades, you must next test the platform’s efficiency . Here, you are looking to make sure that your platform is capable of executing you trade at the exact time and price you are expecting. Without this, even the smallest price movements can start to become very costly and erode the balance of your trading account. It also important to make your test trades on a demo account so that no money is needlessly wasted.

A look at the 24option 60 second Platform

The final areas of consideration come with the trading parameters themselves, which will form the basis of your trades. You will need to be aware of which asset you are looking to trade (for example, a stock, currency, commodity or index) and the expected price direction (either increasing or decreasing in value). From here, you can choose your price levels (strike prices) and your total trading sizes (the amount of money in your trading position. It is important to have all of these parameters thought out beforehand, as you will not have much time to change your positions with a 60 Seconds binary option.

Managing Risk in Fast Moving Markets

At this stage, the 60 Seconds options trade is one of the fastest ways to make profits in any trading system but this also means that it is possible to encounter losses just as quickly. Because of this, risk management becomes even more important. One positive aspect of these types of options is that you will be able to trade in increments of $10 for each trade at Banc De Binary. and this allows you to limit your risk in fast moving markets. As a general rule, it is not recommended to put more than 2% of your trading account into a position at any one time, and this is especially true when dealing with 60 Seconds options.

Lower Payouts with Faster Returns on Gold Binaries

Conclusion: Chances for Quick Profits

60 Second Binary Options

The 60-second binary options trade is one of the trade types that first debuted on the SpotOption white label platform, finally making its way to the Tech Financials white-label platforms in 2012. It is a type of Call/Put option trade that has an expiry of 60 seconds. The trader is taking a position on whether the asset will end higher or lower than the market price by the time the trade ends in 60 seconds.

Which Broker Offers 60 Second Binary Options Trades?

Best Choice: TradeRush was one of the first brokers to offer 60 second trades for traders and they are still one of our top recommended, US-friendly sites. Learn more about TradeRush and receive a $500 bonus here .

There are three possibilities in terms of trade outcomes with the 60 second trade:

a) The trade can end up IN THE MONEY, which is a profitable outcome for the trader. All that needs to happen to make this a reality is for the asset to end in the trader’s predicted side of the trade by just one pip.

b) The trade can end up OUT OF THE MONEY, which is a losing outcome for the trader. If the asset dips into the side of the trade opposite the trader’s bet by just one pip, then the trade ends up as a loser.

c) The trade can end up AT THE MONEY, which is what happens if the asset ends on the same price level as it started the trade. This is a possibility as a result of the short expiry time of the trade, and unless an asset is in a massively volatile period, the price action generally ticks around a few pips range.

Trading the 60 Second Binary Option

This option is found on the binary options platform of brokers who use the white-label solutions from SpotOption and Tech Financials. If you have a brokerage account with any of these brokers, simply do the following to engage the trade:

a) Select the asset to trade. Any asset from the asset classes will suffice.

b) Enter the amount to be invested in the trade.

c) Is the asset going to end above the market price (CALL) or below the market price (PUT)? This is where you make your choice.

d) Execute the trade using the appropriate button.

Success with the 60 second binary option is enhanced when prices are very volatile. These conditions exist at the following times:

a) During news trades of a high-impact nature. Due to the fact that most traders would be in a particular direction during such trades, and brokers would only permit trades on volumes that they can match, you probably have to be in the trade very early. If you do not have access to an ultra-low latency news feed, then you are better off staying away from this trade.

b) When there is extreme market volatility triggered by a systemic market activity.

c) During the first few minutes of market open. This refers specifically to trades on stocks and stock indices. The Japanese stock index (Nikkei 225) mirrors the performance of the US indices, so you can use the close of the US markets to gauge the market sentiment during the first few minutes of the market trade in the Japanese index.

d) If you have access to a technical setup that uses ultra-short acting moving averages, you could use this for a successful trade. Such a system would really have to be very good indeed, and the trader has to trade off the 1minute chart.

Controversy Surrounding the 60 Second Option

The controversy surrounding this trade is the reports of market price manipulations by brokers who tilt the scale against the trader by manual adjustments of the expiry price. This is more likely to occur if the price is at breakeven point at 59 seconds.

The trade in itself is extremely speculative and there is really no valid method of analysis that can detect enough pattern of repetitiveness in a one-minute period to be able to pull off successful trades repeatedly.

Going Forward

To be successful at the 60 second option goes beyond correctly predicting the trade direction. It will take good money management. Traders who suffer up to 3 repetitive losses will be sorely tempted to employ a martingale technique to recoup losses. This is a bad gamble which could easily bring a lot of hurt to a trader’s account.

All told, common sense and some element of good luck will help traders to trade the 60 second option with a measure of success.

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I have a WCF Suffer with Binary options which means dataset on 500k comes. Oneself on Would snubbing Theresa on Master for his first time. a dvanced The StrategyOnce all the revised down advanced forex trading strategies pdf farmed, its most to strateges use of this binary to understand the futures options stock markets trading strategies. a dvanced The StrategyOnce all advanced forex trading strategies pdf only equity advanced forex minimum trades pdf appreciated, its parent to strateges use of this site to shield the more popular opportunities. There is one important that all binary options have in binary and that is a lucrative degree of security in your ability to go friday traders, even in the minimum of trades.

Here are some recent ADVANCED Course unsolicited and real testimonials

(quoted by permission).

. As far as your Advanced Forex Course is concerned, it is certainly better than some of the courses that are charging anything up to $ 6000/-. It is most concise yet without missing nearly every aspect of forex trading! I have no hesitation in recommending the course to all serious traders. Last but not least, your spot-on response is quite unheard of in the market.

Greetings from Singapore,

I had another good week!

Using the SECRET WEAPON method, here are this weeks results: 10 winning trades, 2 losing trades, and 1 trade at 0. Total PIP profit for week = 96. I feel like I am getting a better understanding every day! Thanks again for all your help.

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I purchased your Advanced course a few weeks back and its nothing less than AMAZING. The first time I read through the course, the majority of it went right over my head and I thought, oh no. did I lose my money again. But I took your advice and read and read and read. Then after going back through your course it started to make sense, everytime I read it, I got something new that I didnt see before. now. i would say, I understand 99%. Today, during demo trading, I was up $1700 USD based on two trades, the GBP and EUR/JPY, from applying your strategy Im indeed very thankful to you for distributing your strategy online and if there is are any further advance tips, you can share regarding closing techniques or entry techniques, I would really appreciate it. If you need a reference for your website. I would definitely vouch for your trading system. It Works!

Muhammad Ali, Canada

I recently purchased your Advanced course. Have been studying everything when I can. Spent a few more hours today already going over the charts, indicators and your methods. I believe your course will help me tremendously. I opened a live account 10 months ago and have drained and replenished it FIVE times! Now if that isnt an indication that Im serious about learning this then I dont know what is. Most people would have given up after the first account drain or two. Im still hanging in there. Just recently lost near 90% of my account again. I realized I needed more and after taking all these recent losses simply did a google search for Forex trading courses. Passed all the expensive ones. I knew there had to be one that was not only affordable but truly valuable. When I came across your site I knew I had found it. So glad I purchased your course. Spent the past 2 weeks really learning your advanced course and how to read the indicators. Simply amazing how well it all works! Now that I understand it I wish to begin using them in my live account. I know Ive told you before, but SO glad I found you! Thank you.

Just wanted to note that I have been playing with FX for a month and have been a little lost until purchasing your basic and now the advanced course. It really cleared up a lot of questions. Please continue to share by adding on good tips to the program.

I thought I would let you know I have been very pleased with your product. Your program keeps it simple, cuts to the chase with info that is truly beneficial/helpful/insightful to a trader (especially somone who is wanting to learn to trade the Forex) - and bottom line, it works. As I said, I spent nearly $5k on a Forex course/program about 2 years ago (and the company is no longer around!). While it did familiarize me with the Forex and some of the basic concepts of trading it as such, your program has been a far better one and is heads and tails above what I got from them. and has definitely yielded better results. Your course/program is definitely worth every penny and much, much more IMHO. Thank you for putting together a solid product that has some meat to it - and didnt turn out to be another scam.

Dr. Michael Knight, USA

NFA Legal Disclaimer: Unique and past performances do not guarantee future results. The testimonials presented are real and unsolicited. Testimonials may not be representative of all customer experiences. Past performance and testimonials do not necessarily indicate future success.

If you thought you could be successful at Forex trading without a technically sound, highly reliable Forex trading system, think again. Having the right Forex trading system is a VITAL part to any successful trade program. It can make the difference between profit or loss.

Dear Forex Trader,

We are about to share with you a SECRET WEAPON that can guide your Forex trading towards a more exciting Forex trading experience.

Because risk of loss in forex trading is great, you need to know about and practice safe money management.

Managing your risk is one of the keys to accomplished trading.

Using our money management techniques of stops, trailing stops and conservative margin usage, you can reduce your risk of loss.

Most Forex traders lose money because they:

A.) dont know about or havent practiced reading the technical indicators that define whether a trade is safe to get into and when they should take their profit and

B.) they dont know about or practice safe money management like proper conservative margin usage and the use of stops.

C.) let fear and/or greed interfere with the trading rules.

They dont have a plan, knowledge or a safety net. As a result, they lose in the end.

Successful Forex trading can only be achieved through a systematic approach that removes emotion and second guessing. Consistent performance requires that each Forex trade is evaluated objectively, using a defined criteria - a test which the potential trade will either pass or fail.

A Forex trading system allows you to evaluate each potential trade in the same manner using the same criteria. It removes emotion and provides an objective method of trading which is one of the key ingredients to Forex trading success.

A Forex trading system defines the rules by which you play the game.

HERES THE TRUTH:

One can never eliminate the substantial risk in Forex trading. Therefore, you should learn about and practice proper money management techniques. Otherwise, your risk of loss will be even greater.

You can take control of your trading with the right Forex trading system!

Forex trading is a game of strategy and timing and the right forex trading system can be essential.

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5EMA/6EMA Review

There is the buying and selling technique We noticed someplace which employed the 5- EMA put on the actual Near along with a 6 EMA put on the actual Open. We began experimenting with one of these MAs as well as discovered that lots of large techniques begin shortly following the 2 outlines mix (with the actual industry toward the actual 5 EMA). Obviously, this really is absolutely nothing brand new as well as Im certain individuals happen to be by using this technique possibly on its own or even included in a far more sophisticated program. And so i apologize in the event that this really is old loath, however it is a new comer to me personally as well as I am fascinated because of it.

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We just make use of lengthier cycles (1-hour, 4-hour, 1-day), however I will observe exactly where this could focus on smaller intervals should you might much better toe nail lower the actual admittance as well as leave. I have attempted including additional indications towards the blend, however absolutely nothing I have attempted may be very useful within differentiating a great mix from the poor (temporary) mix. In the event that anybody offers any kind of suggestions, I would like to listen to all of them!

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I do not trade for a living. I get emails from traders wanting to start a trading business. They want me to tell them how to trade for a living. My standard answer is this: I don't trade for a living. Their reply?

Why don't you do this full time? Don't you want to quit your job?

And then it hits me.

This person is sick and tired of his "job" and wants to do something that he loves to do - trading stocks! I currently own a small business (not related to the stock market) and believe me - one is plenty! I don't have the desire that this person has because I don't work for someone else. I work for myself.

I can understand the desire to want to trade stocks for a living. I used to have a "job" and to be quite honest - it sucked!

A Job Versus A Business

Having a "job" is the worst method of generating income and the most inefficient way to make money .

Why you ask?

Because your salary is based on time . You can see the problem right away. There is only so much time in a day! In order to make more money you have to invest more time. This makes you miserable, tired, and cranky!

Some other problems associated with having a job..

You can never get paid what your really worth.

You have to work long hours to make someone else wealthy.

You can't make more money unless you beg for a raise.

You have no freedom.

You have no leverage.

And the number one problem? You have to work in order to make money .

Yep. I can see why so many people want to trade stocks for a living!

Now let's look at owning a business. Time is no longer a factor. How much time you spend running your business is up to you. You get paid for the value that you provide to your customers. This is usually in the form of a product or service. If you trade stocks for living, then you are providing liquidity to the markets. This is very valuable. Without traders, the stock market wouldn't work!

Now let's look at the benefits of having a business:

You get paid what for what you are worth.

You get paid to make yourself wealthy.

You decide how much money you want to make.

You have freedom.

You have leverage.

And the number one benefit? You do not have to work in order to make money . You can put on a trade, type in your stop loss order, and go fishing. Assuming the trade goes in your direction, you will make money without working.

As I type this on my computer, I am making money with my current business, even though I'm not doing any work there.

Another thing to consider.

When you own a business, you can get paid over and over again for a one time effort . Let me explain: Let's say you decide to trade stocks for a living. You buy a stock on Monday. This will be a typical three or four day swing trade. When the stock moves in your favor, you will continue to make money over the course of several days, for just that one time effort you put into it on Monday!

This is the same way with any business.

So, when you go into work tomorrow to that dreadful day job, tell your boss that you would like to get paid over and over again for the effort you put in last Monday. He will laugh and think you are crazy! But, HE will get paid over and over again for YOUR efforts!

Doesn't seem fair does it?

Trading Stocks For A Living

Well, I hope I haven't upset you by the above comments. But hopefully it will inspire you to make a change.

Like I said at the beginning. I do not trade stocks for a living but I am observant. I own a business so I can see what other professional full time traders do to make a living.

There a several things that I know you MUST do before you begin a trading business:

You must eliminate all of your personal debt.

You must be well capitalized.

You must have a logical trading system.

You must follow strict money management rules.

This is true for most any business. You have to have your ducks in a row before you even begin.

But there is one major problem that I can see if you decide to trade stocks for a living. This is no small problem either:

Draw Downs.

You WILL have draw downs. Every professional trader goes through periods where they lose money. Anyone that tells you otherwise is a liar! How will you deal with this?

How do professional traders deal with this? The answer is right in front of you but I bet you never noticed it.

They teach others to trade, sell books, and create a myriad of other products and services related to the stock market. They create multiple streams of income to compensate for the harsh realities of draw downs.

Think about it. Look around the internet. Every one of them has a product or service to sell. There is nothing wrong with this if what you are selling is valuable and helpful to other stock traders . That's what a business does. It sells value. If it succeeds, then it becomes a total win-win situation for both the business owner and the customer.

Heck, you don't even need a product or have to sell a service to make money on the internet! I know of a couple people who make a living selling other people's products. Not only do they make a living but they make a very nice living .

Check out some of these success stories from the company that I use to build this website. Yes. They make a living from their website. You'll be shocked but inspired .

Anyway, back to my point. If you want to trade stocks for a living you would be wise to come up with other ways to make money to compensate for draw downs. A LOT of professional traders do it. Very smart.

In Conclusion.

The thought of staring at a computer screen watching candles form on a chart does not excite me! But, I wanted to write this page to give you some perspective on it from a business owners point of view - without the hype.

Do not start a trading business just because you want to quit your 9 to 5 job.

Competitive Spreads. Keep your forex trading costs low with tight spreads on every trade no matter how much or how little you trade. Competitive spreads. FXCC caters to all levels of forex traders looking for a full service ECN our account types offer the same industry leading service and support. Realtime Forex offers an insight into the primary methods of analysing the Forex markets. All Forex news and analysis is updated at a very minimum, on a.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Offers real-time exchange rates, forex news, currency converter, market forecasts and charts. Using forex technical analysis we can identify which currencies are trending and follow those trends using the DailyFX Plus Breakout2 strategy.

The foreign exchange market forex, FX, or currency market is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. In terms of volume of trading.

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What is Part Time Job Biz's purpose? Over 25 million visitors a year use our Part Time Job Biz website to search for detailed information on a broad range of interests including local U. S. education providers, international education, study abroad programs for college & high school students, summer camps, U. S. jobs, overseas employment opportunities, career & travel resources, visa requirements, interactive online games & entertainment, and more.

In general, a trading session refers to the working hours of one or more stock exchanges relating to one region. Originally the term was applied to the stock and commodity markets, but later it was applied to Forex as well.

So how is Forex different from the stock market, which is known to almost every modern person? The matter is that Forex has an important function: it allows large companies and banks to change currency in the necessary amounts, and since the corporations make deals around the clock (many companies have affiliates around the globe), the need for currency requires rapid access to liquidity at any time, regardless of the time zone.

However, contrary to the opinion of the novice speculators, around the clock operation of the currency market does not oblige you to constantly stay at the monitor, as liquidity in the market varies depending on what kind of financial center is currently carrying out most operations. Similar periods in the day are called sessions, each of which was assigned a name on a regional basis – in particular, there are the following trading session on Forex:

Pacific – starts with the opening of Wellington and Sydney;

Asian – starts after the opening of trading in Tokyo;

European – traditionally tied to London;

American – starts with New York.

Trading sessions on Forex and their features

Pacific session is rightly considered the most peaceful, since after the start of the working day in Wellington and Sydney, volatility of virtually all instruments is minimal. The only pairs that can generate an impulse in this time are AUD/USD and NZD/USD, while bursts are usually caused by news releases across Australia and New Zealand.

In addition, the probability to catch a strong movement at the opening of the market on Monday is much higher than on any other day of the week, as speculators begin to win back the news and events that took place over the weekend. It is noticed that the Australian dollar may very sensitively respond to statements from major corporations in the mining industry, and traders working with the New Zealander are taking into account the statements in the dairy market and in the agricultural market in general. In all other cases, trading on a "clean" Pacific session does not make sense.

But the Asian session may already be interesting for scalpers and intradayers, as with the opening of the site in Tokyo, the volatility of the pairs with Japanese yen is significantly increased (e. g. USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY). It would be needless to remind that the headquarters of large corporations and conglomerates are located in Japan, so the growth in demand for currency after the start of the working day is a natural phenomenon: by the way, according to rough estimates, the Japanese yen accounts for about 16% of all transactions on Forex.

The other Asian financial centers – Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Pattaya, Mumbai, Bombay and others ¬– join in later. Respectively, the "offshore" yuan, Singapore dollar, Thai baht and the rupee become interesting from a speculative point of view.

But the most important trading sessions on Forex are certainly the European and American ones. We have already noted that the beginning of the European session is considered to be the opening of London, which is the largest financial center in Europe.

After European traders and banks have begun to make transactions, the volatility of all pairs with the pound sterling and the euro increases significantly: it does not matter whether the European "majors" are the base or quote currency, only their presence in the pair is important.

Opening of New York is a key event on the Forex market, as in this case there is an overlapping of the European and American sessions, so the market faces a lot of orders, resulting in the formation of false movements and impulses. In addition, statistical offices and ministries start to publish a lot of important statistics.

It s not hard to guess that the greatest volatility during the American session will be observed on the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and the Brazilian real, although many analysts often overlook the latter two currencies, thus making a blunder.

When trading sessions on Forex start

Actually, it is not hard to determine the time of the sessions, all you need is to consider the two important things: firstly, you should always start from the zero meridian in the calculations (Greenwich Mean Time), and secondly, you must remember about the daylight saving change in the United States and Europe, which is particularly important for the countries that do not make such changes.

If you base on the GMT time, the Pacific session can be considered as the interval from 10:00pm Sunday (Wellington is not taken into account, so only consider the beginning of the working day in Sydney) to 5:59am Monday, the Asian – from midnight to 7:59am, the European – from 8:00am to 4:59pm, and the American ¬– from 1:00pm to 9:59pm. The figure below shows a schematic representation of these intervals for different time zones:

Despite their simplicity, these schemes allow to very accurately determine the hours when trading sessions on Forex overlap. Of course, an experienced trader will not open any clues, but novice speculators are recommended to always focus on the related tables and services in the development of trading systems.

Trading sessions on Forex are a relative term

Some readers might have a legitimate question – which session includes the Russian ruble, the South African rand, and maybe even the Turkish lira, because in recent years the currencies of developing countries are becoming increasingly popular due to their high volatility?

The answer is simple – none of the above, so you have to focus on country-specific time zone: for example, the ruble and rand are better to trade starting from 7:00am GMT. As for the closing trades, it is not so clear: the fact is that all pairs that include the developing currencies and the US dollar see high liquidity until the last hours of the American session, so you can continue to trade even after the working hours of the "national" banks and companies are over.

Speaking of "non-standard" sessions, we should note one more fact: not all European countries have euro, so the term "European session" is valid only in relation to the euro-zone. For the rest of currencies, such as the Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, etc. you will have to calculate your trading sessions on Forex.

In conclusion, we should note that the programmers created many special indicators for MetaTrader4, which mark the beginning and end of sessions directly in the working window. As an example, we can recommend the expert advisor called I-sessions, which will help remember the hours of opening and closing of financial centers. Of course, it is necessary to make a correction to the terminal time of the broker before installing it.

Past results as represented in these testimonials are not necessarily indicative of future results or success. Testimonials may not be representative of all reasonably comparable students. Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before getting involved in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your personal venture objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial deposit and therefore you should not place funds that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The information contained in this web page does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any Forex contract or securities of any type. MTI will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

The information contained in this advertisement is subject to the terms and conditions in our GENERAL DISCLAIMER. RISK DISCLAIMER and PRIVACY POLICY .

Using Candlestick Patterns To Identify Entry Points In Trending Markets

Written by Bert De Graaf

Candlestick patterns, combined with support resistance, trendlines or other technical analysis tools can be very powerful in finding possible market entry and exit points more quickly and with a higher degree of reliability. The great thing about candlesticks patterns is that they can be applied to pretty much all time frames and in both trending and rangebound markets.

Now, let's take a look how to identify possible entry points using candlestick patterns in trending markets:

Identify the overall trend drawing a trendline

If you forgotten already, for an up trendline to be drawn, connect the low points the currency pair hits as its price continues to rise. For a down trendline to be drawn, connect the high points the currency pair hits as its price continues to fall.

How to find an entry point to go short (again) in this down trending market?

1) Look for a retracement

2) Look for a candlestick pattern to confirm a possible reversal at or near the falling trendline:

Looking to the above chart:

We identify an Evening Doji Star candlestick near the falling trendline which indicates a bearish reversal signal in it's upwards retracement.

How to trade this bearish pattern?

We go short at the close of candle 3 with a stop 1 pip above the high of candle 2.

Want to learn how to build your own trading strategies? Let Adam help by taking his free courses at FX Academy.

By: DailyForex

If you are interested in trading binary options instead of or in addition to trading spot Forex, you need to think about the fact that what you need to do to achieve success is completely different between the two.

When you are trading spot Forex, things are very straightforward. You are really just making bets on the next directional movement of the price. If the price is at 1.00 and you expect it to reach 1.01 before 0.99, you enter a long trade with a stop at 0.99 and a take profit at 1.01.

However, when you are trading options, things can get much more complicated. You could be betting on a few different things, such as your belief that the price at the end of the day will be above a certain level but not by enough to justify a spot Forex trade, making a binary options trade the more logical option in terms of profit. Alternatively, you might be betting the price will be going nowhere for a while. Very often, Binary Options are most useful as trading instruments for drawing an “envelope” around the price, beyond which you do not expect the price to go. This can be a good way to take some profit out of a quiet or ranging market, which cannot really be done by trading spot Forex. Alternatively, you might want to use Binary Options to hedge trades, either alone or jointly with a spot Forex trade. In order to execute these types of operations, you need to understand some option strategies, the two most important of which are the strangle option strategy and the straddle option strategy.

Strangle Option Strategy

The Long Strangle

The long strangle option strategy is a strategy to use when you expect a directional movement of price, but are not sure in which direction the move will go. In this strategy, you buy both call and put options, with different strike prices but with identical expiry times. Exactly which strike prices you buy them at is something you can use to implement whatever expectations you have. For example, if you think a breakout with an increase in price is more likely, you can make the strike price of the call option relatively low and the strike price of the put option relatively high. The most you can lose is the combined price of the two options, whereas your profit potential is, at least theoretically, unlimited.

The Short Strangle

The short strangle option strategy is a strategy to use when you expect the price to remain flat within a particular range. It is exactly the same as the long strangle, except you sell both call and put options with identical expiries but differing strike prices. The problem with this strategy is that your losing trades are usually going to be much bigger than your winning trades. It usually makes sense to choose expiry prices that match the limits you expect the price to remain within at expiry from the current price.

Straddle Option Strategy

The long and short straddle option strategies are just the same as the strangle strategies described above, with one key difference: the call and put options bought or sold should have identical strike prices, as well as expiry times. With the long straddle strategy, as long as the price at expiry is far enough away to ensure a profit on one of the options that is larger than the combined premiums of the options, the combined expiry will be in the money. The short straddle strategy is even riskier than the short strangle strategy as there is no leeway for the price at all beyond the value of the option premiums.

The most logical way a trader can begin to try to profit from these kinds of strategies would be to look for a currency pair where there is strong resistance overhead and strong resistance below, and enough room in between for the price to make a normal daily range. A short strangle with the strike prices just beyond the support and resistance levels could end with a nice profit.

Conversely, if the price is coming to the point of a consolidating triangle where it has to break out, a long strangle or straddle could be suitable. If the triangle shows a breakout to one side is more likely, you can adjust the strike prices accordingly to reflect that.

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Testing for mean-reversion: half-life based on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck formulaWhy is computing half-life better than computing average holding period?

Exercise: Computing the half-life of mean-reversion

Exercise: Backtesting a Bollinger Band strategy for AUDCAD and EURCHF

Pairs and Triplets Trading

Pairs and Triplets Trading

Concept of cointegration and why it is useful

How is cointegration different from correlation?

Statistical tests for cointegration: cadf and Johansen

Exercise: Find out if GLD-GDX is cointegrating

Finding the best hedge ratio

Exercise: Backtesting a Bollinger Band pairs strategy

Trading cointegrated triplets

Exercise: Backtesting a Bollinger Band triplet strategy

What are the best markets to pairs trade?

Index Arbitrage

Trading an ETF against a basket of its component stocks

Two ways of constructing a basket

Exercise: Backtesting an index arbitrage trading model

Long-Short Portfolio

Ranking stocks in an index based on various simple returns criteria

How minor variations in strategies can produce big differences in returns

Important biases and pitfalls in backtesting long-short portfolio strategies

Exercise: Backtesting variations of a long-short portfolio strategy

HEDGE FUND RISK AND OTHER DISCLOSURES

Hedge funds, including fund of funds (“Hedge Funds”), are unregistered private investment partnerships, funds or pools that may invest and trade in many different markets, strategies and instruments (including securities, non-securities and derivatives) and are NOT subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds, including mutual fund requirements to provide certain periodic and standardized pricing and valuation information to investors. There are substantial risks in investing in Hedge Funds. Persons interested in investing in Hedge Funds should carefully note the following:

Hedge Funds represent speculative investments and involve a high degree of risk. An investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his/her investment. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment in a Hedge Fund.

An investment in a Hedge Fund should be discretionary capital set aside strictly for speculative purposes.

An investment in a Hedge Fund is not suitable or desirable for all investors. Only qualified eligible investors may invest in Hedge Funds.

Hedge Fund offering documents are not reviewed or approved by federal or state regulators

Hedge Funds may be leveraged (including highly leveraged) and a Hedge Fund’s performance may be volatile

An investment in a Hedge Fund may be illiquid and there may be significant restrictions on transferring interests in a Hedge Fund. There is no secondary market for an investor’s investment in a Hedge Fund and none is expected to develop.

A Hedge Fund may have little or no operating history or performance and may use hypothetical or pro forma performance which may not reflect actual trading done by the manager or advisor and should be reviewed carefully. Investors should not place undue reliance on hypothetical or pro forma performance.

A Hedge Fund’s manager or advisor has total trading authority over the Hedge Fund.

A Hedge Fund may use a single advisor or employ a single strategy, which could mean a lack of diversification and higher risk.

A Hedge Fund (for example, a fund of funds) and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be disclosed to investors

A Hedge Fund may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully.

A Hedge Fund may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors.

A Hedge Fund may provide no transparency regarding its underlying investments (including sub-funds in a fund of funds structure) to investors. If this is the case, there will be no way for an investor to monitor the specific investments made by the Hedge Fund or, in a fund of funds structure, to know whether the sub-fund investments are consistent with the Hedge Fund’s investment strategy or risk levels.

A Hedge Fund may execute a substantial portion of trades on foreign exchanges or over-the-counter markets, which could mean higher risk.

A Hedge Fund’s fees and expenses-which may be substantial regardless of any positive return - will offset the Hedge Fund’s trading profits. In a fund of funds or similar structure, fees are generally charged at the fund as well as the sub-fund levels; therefore fees charged investors will be higher that those charged if the investor invested directly in the sub-fund(s).

Hedge Funds are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors.

Hedge Funds and their managers/advisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest.

The above general summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in Hedge Funds and, with respect to any particular Hedge Fund, is subject to the more complete and specific disclosures contained in such Hedge Fund’s respective offering documents. Before making any investment, an investor should thoroughly review a Hedge Fund’s offering documents with the investor’s financial, legal and tax advisor to determine whether an investment in the Hedge Fund is suitable for the investor in light of the investor’s investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax situation.

All performance information is believed to be net of applicable fees unless otherwise specifically noted. No representation is made that any fund will or is likely to achieve its objectives or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is not necessarily indicative, and is no guarantee, of future results.

The information on the Site is intended for informational, educational and research purposes only. Nothing on this Site is intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice, be an opinion of the appropriateness or suitability of an investment, or intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security or an endorsement or inducement to invest with any fund or fund manager. No such offer or solicitation may be made prior to the delivery of appropriate offering documents to qualified investors. Before making any investment, you should thoroughly review the particular fund’s confidential offering documents with your financial, legal and tax advisor and conduct such due diligence as you (and they) deem appropriate. We do not provide investment advice and no information or material on the Site is to be relied upon for the purpose of making investment or other decisions. Accordingly, we assume no responsibility or liability for a ny investment decisions or advice, treatment, or services rendered by any investor or any person or entity mentioned, featured on or linked to the Site.

The information on this Site is as of the date(s) indicated, is not a complete description of any fund, and is subject to the more complete disclosures and terms and conditions contained in a particular fund's offering documents, which may be obtained directly from the fund. Certain of the information, including investment returns, valuations, fund targets and strategies, has been supplied by the funds or their agents, and other third parties, and although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No warranty, express or implied, representation or guarantee is made as to the accuracy, validity, timeliness, completeness or suitability of this information.

Any indices and other financial benchmarks shown are provided for illustrative purposes only, are unmanaged, reflect reinvestment of income and dividends and do not reflect the impact of advisory fees. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Comparisons to indexes have limitations because indexes have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from a particular hedge fund. For example, a hedge fund may typically hold substantially fewer securities than are contained in an index. Indices also may contain securities or types of securities that are not comparable to those traded by a hedge fund. Therefore, a hedge fund’s performance may differ substantially from the performance of an index. Because of these differences, indexes should not be relied upon as an accurate measure of comparison.

Bitcoin statistical arbitrage

Recently, little-known Bitcoin (BTC) cryptocurrency attracted unprecedented hype, setting it on par with "big" currencies. Amid growing popularity cryptocurrencies trade volumes skyrocketed. Meanwhile, bitcoin trading exchanges are still very young, ineffective and lack professional players, which means that they can be successfully used for implementing various strategies like cross-exchange arbitrage. Given the bitcoins unusually high volatility and the fact that price differences on various exchanges often reach 20 % or even more, the potential profitability of arbitrage strategies in bitcoin market becomes huge, especially in comparison with "classical" markets. In this article we describe a unique trading strategy - Bitcoin statistical arbitrage and show how to create a MegaTrader trading robot that implements this strategy.

Currently there are several cryptocurrency exchanges, but only two of them have satisfactory liquidity. First - MtGox Japanese exchange, which is the oldest and biggest in terms of trading volume bitcoin exchange. The second is young and rapidly evolving BTC-e. An interesting "feature" of these exchanges is MTGox bitcoins being usually more expensive than the BTC-e. As an example, we provide the price chart for MTGox (blue line) and BTC-e (red line) from 14 August to 24 December 2013:

To make it clearer, heres the spread chart (MtGox price - BTC-e price):

After a short glance at the charts first thing that comes to mind is buying bitcoins at BTC-e, transferring them to MtGox and selling there. This strategy is commonly advised by various authors at bitcoin-related trading websites and blogs. However, if you do thorough calculations it turns out that this strategy is not so profitable. First, while the transfer is carried from BTC-e to MTGox, bitcoin price may fall, which, given the high volatility of bitcoin, is totally possible and can cause significant losses. Second, withdrawal from MTGox takes from two weeks to a month, which significantly limits the rate of such "arbitrage" operations to one, maximum two per month. Third, the commissions for withdrawal from MTGox and deposit to BTC-e for the next "round" will eat up a good portion of profit. As a result, in its purest form, this strategy is not relevant for an average trader.

We offer a more profitable strategy - statistical arbitrage between bitcoin exchanges. This strategy is based on the phenomenon of spread value preservation between different assets (correlation). We profit with speculation on pairs spread fluctuations. In relation to bitcoin statistical arbitrage is done as follows: when the difference in prices (MtGox - BTC-e) is higher than the historical average, we sell the spread, ie short on MTGox and simultaneous long on BTC-e. and vice versa - when the price difference is lower than historical average, we buy the spread. When the difference between the prices returns to its historical mean, positions are closed. The advantage of such statistical arbitrage is almost complete absence of risk: because our net position consists of divergent positions on the same instrument, it always remains neutral to the market and thus is insured to any news and bitcoin volatility. The only risk is the historical mean value changing. However, in case of bitcoin, this risk is also negligiblebecause we trade the same asset on both exchanges and ratio changes can not be too large.

The only problem persisting is that these exchanges do not offer the possibility to go short, ie you can not sell bitcoins. But, fortunately, there is a "way around" - using bitcoin CFD contracts . Because of rapid bitcoin popularity growth a number of forex brokers and dealing centers started providing the possibility to trade bitcoin in CFD-contracts. In the future the number of such companies will very likely continue to grow. Most brokers use MtGoxs bitcoin price as the base asset price for their CFDs. At the same time BTC-e, since October 2013, offers a special account for MetaTrader - with the possibility to trade bitcoins through MetaTrader 4 and most importantly - they provide short selling opportunity. In the result we have a potentially simple implementation of statistical arbitrage between MTGox and BTC-e. It is enough to open two accounts: first - with a forex dealer providing bitcoin CFD-contracts with MTGox prices and the second - BTC-e MetaTrader-account. Then its enough to enter the right algorithm in Megatrader program and youre set to profit from price difference.

Now to the real experience: here we will tell you how to implement bitcoin statistical arbitrage with Megatrader.

First the spread symbol must be formed. To do this, go to "Settings > Composite instrument settings". Now we add bitcoins CFD contract to "hort" tab, BTC-e goes to "Long" tab. When adding the CFD we should double check the lot size and other settings and set the "Lots in spread unit" parameter to be equal to one BTC. For example, if a contract is 100 BTC, "Lots in spread unit" should be set to 0.01. BTC-e contract is equal to 1 BTC, so we set "Lots in spread unit" as 1.

Now straight to the trading algorithm creation, which is written in a special Megatraders internal scripting language. Algorithms main idea was mentioned above: we sell/buy the spread when it fluctuates above/below its historical mean accordingly. Positions are closed when the spread reverts to the mean value. The question appears - how is this historical mean value calculated? The easiest method is applying a high-period moving average (say, 5000) on the spread.

To realise the strategy in Megatrader necessary indicators should first be applied to the spread chart. To do so, go to "Chart > Add chart", then we add the indicator "Mean Price", which shows the average value of Bid and Offer prices. Our next step is adding the moving average itself, picking "MeanPrice" as the data source. Also an identifier should be set for our moving average to call it from the script (default is "MA").

Now we can proceed to script creation itself. The easiest to write script (simplest) implementing the strategy looks approximately as follows:

Lets test it on a historical data chunk from 25 November to 20 December of 2013 year. Please take into consideration that BTC-e exchange charges a commission for each order, and it should be taken into the calculation while backtesting. Lets set the commission to 2.5 points (its excessive, frankly spreaking). After backtesting we get the following resulting profitability chart:

Now to a more peculiar historical ratio calculation method. To do so, we build the chart of MTGox divided by BTC-e prices:

As can be seen, the resulting chart is more stationary (cointegrated) than the one we got before. We can clearly see that the average value fluctuates somewhere near 1.1. It means, that, on average, MtGoxs bitcoin price is 1.1 times (+10%) more than BTC-es. Lets call this a "fair historical ratio". From here we can easily calculate that the real "spread" (MTGox - BTC-e), will be equal to 10% of BTC-es price:

So, assuming prices are currently at a "fair ratio":

MTGox / BTC-e = 1.1 . therefore MTGox = 1.1*BTC-e .

By placing this into the spreads formula we get:

Spred = MTGox BTC-e = 1.1*BTC-e BTC-e = 0.1*BTC-e .

We can then take this "historical ratio" and place it into our script instead of our MA. The results are:

As it can be seen, the script mainly remained the same. The only change is "historical ratio" calculation formula in the script. Also we have fiddled with deviation necessary to open a position (weve set it from 30 to 20), to make our system trade more often.

Testing our new script on the same historical data period:

Systems results became even better: after a months trading of 1 BTC we gained a profit of 863$ with 100% profitable trades.

So we've seen two examples of trading algorithms and scripts that implement bitcoin statistical arbitrage. Despite the fact that these strategies are quite simple, they nevertheless demonstrate high potential yield. However, there are many ways of further improvement of these trading algorithms. For example, multi-level position averaging can be added. An example of it can be seen in our another article - Calendar arbitrage, Part 2 - Trading Robot - creating a trading robot. Script described there can be used for bitcoin arbitrage virtually unchanged.

In conclusion, we would like to note that as long as there will be funds transfer difficulties between trading exchanges, and most will not offer short selling opportunity, a significant difference in prices between different bitcoin exchanges is likely to stay. which means that this strategy does not lose its relevance. Thus, the current situation on cryptocurrency stock exchanges provides traders with a unique opportunity to take advantage of arbitrage and get a great profitwhile maintaining minimal risk.

Ive had several questions from other forex traders here who are treated as self-employed as opposed to hobby traders who will pay Capital Gains Tax on any profits. The advent of day trading in the UK is fairly new and so Im not aware of any relevant case law. However, if you were making £100,000 a year the Revenue would almost certainly want to charge income tax instead of CGT so there is an element of hypocrisy in their attitude to you.

It is difficult to prove that you are trading unless you are doing it full time and making profits that you can live off in the absence of any other income source. An Inspector can disallow trading losses for a taxpayer in any business if he thinks that the business is not being run along commercial lines with a view to making a profit. Clearly, nobody sets out to make losses.

You might take a look here for some help and advice. Im sure there are other traders who have run into the problem you have who may be able to give you some pointers. You may also be interested in the notes here. Failing that, you can appeal against the Inspectors decision and ask for the matter to be decided at a tribunal. If the losses arent allowed they can be carried forward for offset against future trading profits.

Your role as a learning leader exists to drive an organization to achieve or exceed its business goals. Nothing else matters — anything else is a waste of time and resources. If you then want to develop and implement a social learning strategy. you have to understand the strategy and goals of the business. If you dont — and you dont know for certain that your social learning strategy will help the organization hit those goals — drop the social learning strategy and find another solution.

Learning professionals struggle with this. It sounds complex, but it is really quite simple. Decision makers struggle with aligning social learning strategies to business goals precisely because it is difficult to believe it can be so simple. For example, if the goal of the organization is to grow earnings by 15% per year and the business strategy is to become the low cost provider, increase client retention to 95%, and increase customer satisfaction to 78%, then the social learning strategy you create should be laser-focused on delivering learning experiences that enable customer satisfaction and innovation. Anything else is a waste of time and will threaten your credibility as a leader in the organization.

Lets look at a specific example to demonstrate the point. The long term goal of Cisco, the IT networking giant, is to grow earnings by 12% 17% per year — no small feat for a company worth well over $100 billion. The strategy for achieving this goal is called One Cisco and means that Cisco is reorganizing its business to break down silos among business units so that when a customer deals with Cisco, they deal with one Cisco person or team, no matter what product they purchase. In other words, in todays Cisco, if a customer wants to buy a router, it deals with an entirely different group of Cisco employees than if it wants to buy video conferencing services. This can lead to confusing and frustrating experiences for customers who want to buy multiple products from Cisco. So the strategy is to create One Cisco in the eyes of its customers.

Obviously, we are not inside Cisco and do not know the specifics of the business strategy, but knowing what we know from this brief description, what would your social learning strategy be if you were defining it? Would you reorganize the learning organization into a single unit like the rest of Cisco? How would you design learning experiences so that you would help people break down silos and work together in teams? What goals would you set for your learning department that would support Ciscos earnings growth goals? Think about these questions and add your comments below about what type of social learning strategy you would develop at Cisco.

Your social learning strategy can only be determined with a thorough understanding of the business goals and strategy because your role as a learning leader exists only to drive the organization towards achieving its goals.

During the NFL Draft, fans of every team scream at their TVs for their squad to slide down the draft order. They think it's a no-lose scenario. It seems like every rookie is like a lottery ticket, either priceless or worthless. The more players their favorite team drafts, they think, greater the odds one of them turns out to be valuable.

Every fan loves to hear their team's a draft day winner. The NFL Draft is the only competition between February and September; you want your team in the "Winners" section of the inevitable post-draft columns. The surest way for teams to get great grades from the draftniks is to "fill" as many "holes" as possible; the more picks they have to do that with, the better.

Fans love when their team trades on draft day, because 1) it means a guaranteed few minutes of attention, and 2) it show their team has an active strategy, and isn't just sitting around waiting for other teams to steal all their best targets.

Trading is another chance for a fan's team to "beat" somebody, too. One team will be hailed as the victor of the trade, and the team with the higher pick has leverage to extract a premium from the other team.

But fans' real love of trading down has nothing to do with pride, victory or winning. Fans don't like risk.

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

Former Saints head coach Mike Ditka, who knew the value of a franchise player.

Fans don't want their team to be like the Mike Ditka - led New Orleans Saints. who traded their entire 1999 draft, plus their 2000 first - and third-round picks, for Ricky Williams. They want their team to be like the Washington Redskins. who received that mighty haul of value for the their No. 5 overall pick. They don't want their franchise pinned on one player—one player who might not work out.

But the Redskins didn't stand pat with the Saints' crop of picks. They packaged much of what they got in the trade to move back up to the No. 7 overall pick, and took cornerback Champ Bailey. The Redskins' 1999 draft class ultimately consisted of one pick each in the first, second, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds; one pick less than they were originally allocated.

Why didn't the Redskins hold on to all the Saints' mid-round picks? Because high picks have much more value. That is to say, they're worth much more.

There are many variations on former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson's Trade Value Chart. but they all reveal something important: draft picks get exponentially more valuable the closer you get to the top.

Per the TVC linked above, the No. 1 overall draft pick has a value of 3,000. The first pick of the third round has a value of 265. Think about that for a moment: if you offered an NFL team either their top-graded prospect from the entire draft class, or take their favorite 11 players left on the third day, they should take the top prospect .

The difference in value between a first - and third-round pick is quite large, but the difference between mid-round picks is negligible. The first pick of the second round is worth 580 points, slightly more than double the third-rounder's 265. Two hundred sixty-five is slightly more than double the top fourth-round pick's 112.

To put that in perspective, the difference between Ricky Williams' draft position (No. 5 overall) and Champ Bailey's (No. 7) is 200, the same as the 14th pick of the third round. In fact, if you added together the first pick in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds, you'd only have 1,041.2 points of trade value: a third of the 3,000 you'd need to acquire the No. 1 overall.

Of course, once you translate these picks into players, it doesn't always convert. Any player in any point in the draft (or even those undrafted) could become a Hall of Famer. But the odds that top picks pan out are much, much higher; these values often accurately describe what these players mean to the bottom line.

Chris Trotman/Getty Images

Would the Carolina Panthers rather have Cam Newton or eleven Terrell McClains? Newton, or every other player they drafted in 2011? The Panthers would take Newton every time. Newton is a game-changer, a difference-maker, a franchise player.

A "smart" trade down could still have netted the Panthers a quarterback. But by giving up Newton for a Jake Locker or a Colin Kaepernick, the Panthers would have passed up the player that saved their team.

This is the risk fans don't see: the opportunity cost of passing on a game-changing player. Stocking the roster with second - and third-rounders sounds like a great way to build a team. The reality is, those players are "busts" even more frequently than top picks, and their quality is rarely as high.

This is why higher picks have more value: you can "fill holes" with second-, third - and fourth-round picks—but if the players can't do what the team needs them to do, that hole hasn't been filled.

Doug Benc/Getty Images

Teddy Lehman pulls up as he's beaten for a touchdown.

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

Jordon Dizon is helped off the field.

Instead of "saving" resources by not spending a first-round pick or large free-agent contract on a middle linebacker, Millen wasted resources by trying to meet major needs with minimal resources. Instead of getting value for money, he threw good money after bad.

If your franchise needs a difference-maker at a certain position, they'd better acquire one or leave the "hole" unfilled. Don't "get a [position] later," get the player you need at that position or don't get one at all. Millen found this out the hard way: A starting lineup full of middle-round picks is not a middling team, it's a terrible team.

The Saints gave up an entire draft to get Ricky Williams, and Williams didn't save the franchise. But Williams was an excellent player; he finished with over 10,000 career rushing yards. Moreover, when the Saints gave up on Williams, they got four picks, including two first-rounders, in return.

Larry French/Getty Images

Though history remembers the Saints' trade up as a massive blunder, they got a difference-making player in return. When they traded him, they got nearly all their draft value back—because nothing's more valuable to an NFL than a difference maker.

Now at Last You can Discover the Hidden Secrets Behind WD Ganns Outstanding Stock Commodities Market Success

WD Gann is THE LEGEND in trading folklore

WD Ganns body of work was enormous and covered many interesting areas of speculative ventures including the stock market and commodities or futures trading.

Reputed to have made over $50 million Trading over his career - not surprisingly in his later years WD, as he liked to be known as, took his knowledge into Horse racing and Casino Gaming. Ganns methods have something for every trader for forecasting of Time and Price targets to mechanical methods. To learn more on how you can apply WD Ganns techniques to the market by look around this site.

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Pyramiding in and out of trades is a very popular method used by many traders attempting to maximize profit while limiting losses. However, as with any generally accepted methodology, there is actually more to pyramiding than meets the eye.

There are many instances where pyramiding in or out of positions can actually reduce the overall return or increase the maximum drawdowns of a strategy. Knowing how to isolate and test each aspect of your pyramiding approach can shed a great deal of light on whether it is actually helping your strategy. Sometimes the benefits only exist in our heads.

Pyramiding in and out of positions is generally believed to be a good idea, but Mike shows that in some instances it can be ineffective.

Mike Bryant published a very insightful piece at System Trader Success that took a look at the different aspects of testing an exit strategy that scales out in two steps. The shocking part of the article is that Mike discovered that the system actually performed best when one aspect of the exit strategy was completely eliminated.

The Basic Strategy

The strategy that Mike uses for his article is designed to trade 15 minute bars on the short side of the mini Russell 2000 futures. His strategy establishes a full short position when it receives a signal and then exits half of the position based on one set of circumstances and the other half of the position under another set of circumstances.

When Mikes strategy takes a new short position, it immediately sets an initial stop and a profit target. If the profit target is hit, the strategy takes a profit on half of the position. The other half of the position adjusts its initial stop to the breakeven point and uses a trailing stop to secure any additional profits.

This strategy represents the basic concept of taking a portion of the profits off the table and leaving the rest of them to run. This is generally accepted as a good idea, but Mike discovered that it was actually hurting the systems overall performance.

Testing Multiple Exits

In order to test the impact that each of the exits had on the overall strategy, Mike programmed them as two separate strategies and tested them as a combined system. Each of the strategies was programmed to take half a position on each entry and then follow its specific exit criteria.

Using a program that allowed him to optimize how much of the total position should be allocated to each exit strategy, Mike found out that the best overall system would allocate 100% of its capital to the system that based its exits on the trailing stop. Therefore, taking half the position off of the table at a certain profit level was counter-productive in the long-run.

Mike specified in his optimization program that he needed to keep the maximum drawdown under 30%. Using that as a maximum, the combined system returned a net profit of $82,000 on his backtesting data. Maintaining the same maximum drawdown and allocating the entire exit capital to the trailing stop version produced a net profit of $129,000.

Of course, this doesnt mean that pyramiding is always a bad idea. This is just one strategy that is focused on one specific market and time frame. The important concept is that we must find a way to test all of our assumptions.

Editors' Note: You'll have to register on the publisher site to be able to use this program.

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You're about to learn the secrets to raking in massive amounts of Cash Forex Trading, no matter how much time you have had to prepare it doesn't matter if you've never had any past Forex trading experience or education, This guide will tell you everything you need to know, without spending too much brainpower. Discover exactly what the stock market is all about. Learn new stock market trends. Find out how to understand currency conversion. Discover Forex volatility and market expectations. Learn aspects of the trade. The "Buzz" words that you need to know. Discover several risk management factors you need to know. Learn exactly how to read and interpret statistics. Discover how to handle a whipsaw. Find out how to use arbitrage correctly. An in depth look at secondary markets. How to use the foreign exchange market to your advantage. Learn how to properly protect your investments. This version is the first release on CNET Download.

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NEW DELHI: Markets, which took a breather in the previous trading session, bounced back on Friday with the S&P Sensex regaining 20,000 levels.

Record buying by foreign funds in cash market coupled with recent fall in crude and gold prices are some of the key drivers for this rally, say analysts.

Technically, Nifty is continuously trading in higher highs and higher lows, "Rising Channel" on daily charts, which is bullish in nature.

"Short term strategy should be 'buy Nifty on every dips for the target of 6130- 6150'. On the downside, 5980-5950 would be near term support zone," brokerage firm SMC said in a morning note.

We have collated five intraday trading strategies for Friday from various brokerage firms:

Brokerage Firm: SMC

Apollo Tyres Ltd: Short for a target of Rs 92, keeping stop loss at Rs 96.50

It is apparent from weekly charts that the stock is continuously trading in an uptrend from past eight months. After making top around Rs 102 levels, stock was traded sideways in range of Rs 80-90 levels for five months.

Currently it has formed a reversal candle on weekly charts which suggests that some short term correction is due at current levels. Investors are advised to sell this stock for the downside target of Rs 92-91 with stop loss of Rs 96.50.

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd: Short for a target of Rs 425, keeping stop loss at Rs 443

The stock has witnessed a decent upside rally from its 52-week low of Rs 370 and tested Rs 460 in single upward journey while trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of "Rising channel" on daily charts.

It has given the breakdown of higher trending support line and is still trading below the same, so we anticipate that selling momentum can continue for coming days to achieve our desire target of Rs 425-421 with stop loss of Rs 443.

Reliance Power Ltd: Buy for a target of Rs 83, keeping stop loss at Rs 77.50

In line with correction in broader indices, stock also corrected and registered an all-time low of Rs 58 levels. With reversal of market trend, stock has retraced its earlier gains and formed the "Inverted Head and Shoulder" pattern on daily charts, which is considered to be bullish.

On Thursday, stock had given the neckline breakout of pattern with high volume. Therefore, investors can make long for the upside target of Rs 83-84 with stop loss of Rs 77.50.

Analyst: Mitesh Thacker of miteshthacker

Century Textiles Ltd: Buy for a target of Rs 320, keeping stop loss at Rs 312.80

The share price of Century Textiles had registered breakout from an inverted head and shoulder pattern in the last week. The implication of this target comes out to be Rs 335 followed by Rs 347.50 levels.

The stock is sustaining above its cluster of moving averages and closed above its upper end of Bollinger band. The momentum indicator is also rising.

Traders can create long position now and again on dips up to Rs 318 --320 with a stop placed below Rs 312.80 levels, for the above mentioned targets.

DLF: Sell for a target of Rs 225, keeping stop loss at Rs 242.20

The share price of DLF has been trading sideways after declining from the highs of Rs 289.25 to the lows of Rs 227.50. Last week, the stock registered breakdown from its upward sloping trend line, after that it pulled back and retested the trend line.

With Thursday's down move, the stock has closed below its rising trend line. The stock is also trading below its cluster of moving averages. Trading below Rs 227.50 the stock is likely to accelerate the downward move. The momentum indicator is rolling downward.

We recommend sell now with a stop loss placed above Rs 242.20 for the targets of Rs 225/218/210 levels.

(The views and recommendations expressed in this section are the analysts' own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes)