Angels Notes: Madson, Pujols, Morales, Trumbo

Going forward, Angels owner Arte Moreno has made it clear that he wants to leave baseball decisions up to the baseball department as opposed to manager Mike Scioscia. Here's a look at what the Halos might do next..

The Angels are considering free agent closer Ryan Madson, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, in order to stay under the cap, the club would likely have to backload his contract. Madson's market has thinned out somewhat and nearly 32% of MLBTR readers polled believe that the right-hander will sign with the Angels.

Speaking of backloaded deals, Heyman has more details onAlbert Pujols' ten-year contract. Yesterday we learned that Pujols will earn $12MM in 2012 and $16MM in 2013. Heyman adds that the slugger will make $23MM, $24MM, $25MM, $26MM, $27MM, $28MM, $29MM and $30MM in the following years, according to sources.

agreed, its actually pretty comical if the Angels believe Albert will still be hitting the way he used to in years 7-10 they are crazy, St Louis got Pujols at a very discounted price for his best years, cards are the real winners in this case

They don’t think he will be hitting like that in the latter part of the contract. This is as much about marketing as it is about baseball. Their new TV contract easily pays for this contact and then some, they needed a Hispanic star to market with it.

This is also hitting the Dodgers when they are already down. It won’t turn the long time Dodger fans but for the young ones it’s huge for the future of the Angels fan base. Now you can see why the name change a few years ago was done (as silly as it is…).

If Pujols brings a championship of two in the next couple of years it is well worth it. If he happens to hit fairly well in those later years, its gravy.

Never thought from this perspective. Signing Pujols, I don’t know, but the TV deal would be about the same. They are priced based on the market the team is in, and changing the name didn’t change the market they were in.

If you knew the history it makes a lot of sense… First was LA Angels(this is easy, they played in LA), then CA Angels(Autry wanted to disassociate the team from the Brooklyn dodgers in LA and try and get fans from all of SoCal) then Disney bought the team and Anaheim Angels(Disney wanted to make the city a tourist resort-2 amusement parks,2 sports teams, and many hotels. Then came the genius businessman Arte… LAA of Anaheim(..of Anaheim is only there cuz the city sued). IT’S ALL BUSINESS… IF IT WASN’T FOR ARTE, WE WOULDN’T BE RIGHT AROUND THE SALARY CAP!

What’s comical is that you believe that the Angels believe that Albert will put up his typical numbers in 7-10 years. Trust me, nobody in the Angels front office is thinking that. If they did he would have been worth far more than $250m.

However, at his rate he needs to average 4.5 WAR a season – 45 WAR for the duration of the contract to break even in terms of value (assuming a slight appreciation for the value of a win). Is that possible? The guy put up 79 WAR in his previous 10 years. It’s very possible and indeed quite likely.

For what it’s worth here are some other sluggers that profile with Pujols. This is their age 32 to 41 seasons (or less if they didn’t play until 41):

Those aren’t random names – they are Pujols’ top comparables according to Baseball Reference (through his age 31 season). I don’t think there is much question about whether Pujols can deliver 45 WAR over 10 years … so long as he stays reasonably healthy. That’s a huge IF and it could bite the Angels. However, Pujols has been healthy for his entire career. He has the benefit of moving into the DH role if necessary. And remember, the Angels are really only counting on peak production for maybe another 3 years. He would most likely start a significant decline phase over the next 5 years. The final two years … who knows? He probably won’t be contributing that much. Even under that scenario Pujols is a net win in terms of value. If he helps bring in more fans or flags that’s just gravy.

I don’t think Pujols will age as well as Mays/Aaron/Robinson. His elbow problems are well documented as he has had two surgeries (2008 and 2009). He has also had Plantar Fasciitis. I think that tends to re-occur. His wOBA has went from .458/.449/.420/.385 the last 4 seasons. That is not a good trend.

While I am a little scared about his performance last year, I can’t help but remember that Pujols regularly put up 8 to 10 WAR seasons for a decade.

While I doubt that he’ll put those up consistently with the Halos. Each 8 to 10 WAR season is worth $40 to $50 million plus! If he puts up 24 to 30 WAR in the first 3 seasons of his contract, he’ll be surely worth his contract.

REMEMBER he only needs to put up 50.8 WAR at current prices ($5MM/WAR) to make the contract “fair” given the market. That isn’t accounting for inflation. He’s being paid like a 5 WAR player, but he can certainly exceed 50.8W WAR by a HUGE margin over 10 years.

If Trumbo can play third base, Alberto Callaspo or Maicer Izturis could be expendable. This is a very interesting statement and here’s why.
I was watching MLB Hot Stove last night and Billy Ripken and Larry Bowa were talking about Hanley Ramirez’s possible move to third base and how difficult it is.
I say Bologna, but then again what do I know. The rationale was laughable, it’s as laughable as the Orioles current starting rotation, that’s laughable it was. It was about the player’s vision from short stop as opposed to third base was the basic premise.

Anyway, if someone of the caliber of Hanley Ramirez can’t switch to third base, hey Ripken and Bowa say so! So what makes the Angels powers that be think that Trumbo can move to third? Besides, I thought Trumbo was known for his power, not his glove?

PS Madson should go to the Orioles! I am all for it! Then we can send Kevin Gregg to the Angels! He has a contract that would fit in perfectly with the Angel budget. All I would ask for is Dan Haren in return. I will even throw in Guthrie for free to make it even more enticing!

Speaking from personal experience it’s actually not that easy to transition from a middle infield position to a corner. I’m in high school (I know, not even close to the same thing, but still) and I played second base most of my life until my sophomore year when I moved to third. It’s a much different angle that the ball comes at you. It’s much more difficult to read the ball off the bat playing third base than it is up the middle. That being said, I don’t know how hard it would be to move from third to first base in Trumbo’s case.

Myself having played all 4 inf positions….it’s not as hard to move from 1st to 3rd or 3rd to 1st in regards to perspective of field/batter as is is to move from middle inf to corner…..he has experience w/ facing LHB while at 1st so that is the same as facing RHB while at 3B(basically) w/ the exception of more RHB…playing the bunt will be the biggest issue he’ll have IMO due to his size….he’ll play bunts different then when at 1st

BUT when playing 1B the perspective of the batter and the rest of the field is the mirror image at 3B…..that was the point they were making….a SS sees more field were as a 3B sees less….moving from 1st to 3rd wouldn’t change the amount of the field you see…just the angle you see it….

a similar point is said that it’s harder for a SS to move to 2B then a 2B to move to SS b/c the SS has the play in front of him where as the 2B is used to having runners approaching the base from their back side…

My concern about Trumbo playing 3B is his quickness to play the bunt….he’s a big guy and if he plays too deep even his strong arm won’t get the runner out and if he plays too shallow he won’t be able to reach to the hit….other then that I don’t see much of a problem w/ him making the move to 3B….

Yes Glaus and A-Rod are both big guys at 3B but Trumbo isn’t the fielder they are to start w/….

It all comes down to how much tolerance the Angels have for poor defense at 3rd.

Trumbo CAN play 3rd. Can he play it well? Probably not. Is it passable? Who knows. That’s why they need to experiment and see what they have.

Also, remember that Trumbo could be used selectively at 3rd depending on who is on the mound. Fly ball rates by starting pitcher.

Weaver = 48%
Haren = 38%
Wilson = 33%
Santana = 42%

With Weaver and Santana you could have virtually anyone play 3rd base. The probability of them needing to play outstanding defense is minimal. Haren is a pretty typical pitcher when it comes to distribution. CJ is really the only one that is considered a ground ball pitcher.

What all this means … you could easily start Trumbo at 3rd base and expect minimal defensive impact with Weaver, Santana, and probably Haren on the mound. On days that CJ pitches you move Trumbo to DH or give him the day off.

Again, this assumes that he can play passable defense. We’ll have to see.

I’m a Cardinal fan, and I’m just glad that money isn’t being spent by the Cards. I wanted Pujols to stay, but that kind of money can severely cripple a team. I thanked the Cardinals for sticking to what they thought was the amount they could spend, and I think that kind of money is ridiculous. But, then I screamed when they were signing Ozzie to 5 – 6 million a year, way back when!! Not so much a game anymore as it is a business (Big Business).

The difference was really one year? Wasn’t the best offer 9/$210 vs 10/$250. The Cards AAV would have been only a few million less. If the Cards had stepped up to match the Angels offer you would have felt the impact of that in 2021. Basically the rest of the offer was extremely similar.

I normally avoid the mantra of signing big name players to big time contracts but Pujols is awfully special.

We’ll see what that team looks like when Pujols is making $30 million in his 40’s and tell me they can afford it. I know they physically have the cash for him, but it’s pretty obviously going to kill the team. Better win soon I guess…

For the moment I’ll ignore the fact that you’re an Angels fan, and like Angels fan should be, are apprehensive about the deal. (Just as I am about the ends of the Gonzalez and Crawford deals). Maybe I was wrong to say it will kill the team, but aside from putting butts in seats, the last 3 years of Pujols’ contract will likely be massive overpays. Will Crawford be worth 21 million in 2017? Probably not. Will that factor into some of the Sox personnel decisions? I think so. Pujols is great, but you CANT actually think he’s gonna be a 30 million player as a 42-year-old.

TL;DR: Maybe I shouldn’t have said it will KILL the team. But it will definitely play a significant role in their financial and personnel decisions in 8-10 years.

While I agree it will be a major overpay at the end, I don’t necessarily agree that it will cripple the team. I can’t see the Pujols’ contract, even at the end, being any worse for the Angels than the Vernon Wells’ contract currently is. Even with that albatross of the Wells’ contract, they were still able to go out and sign the top position player and one of the top 2 SP and appear to be in on one of the top RP. That TV contract can really cover up a lot of warts on the payroll.

By using that logic then you must also admit that the Angels scored a BARGAIN in the first 5 years of the contract. A guy that produces 7-10 WAR is worth $35 – $50m a season.

You have to look at the entire deal. He needs to produce about 45 WAR to be a good value. Like almost every FA contract, the Angels will get a relative bargain in the first portion of the contract and take a big hit in the back of the contract. That’s the nature of big time FA deals.

The next 3 of Vernon is going to hurt, but that didn’t stop the Halos from getting Albert. If/when Albert starts to decline, who knows what the options will be on the FA market/from the farm system/from trades?

The thing that opposing fans are concerned about is that yet another team is entering the category of “lots-of-money-and-willing-to-spend”, so they comment about contract length and make asinine predictions about Albert’s production over the next decade.

EXACTLY. It is in no way asinine to say that Pujols won’t hit .320-35-120 and be worth $30 million as a 42-year-old. I understand that I exaggerated early and thus was ripped on for being an idiot Sox fan (I am a Sox fan, and am often an idiot). But these are not “asinine” predictions.

Also, frankly, I’m glad that other teams are entering the “lots-of-money-and-willing-to-spend” category. I’ll be the first to admit that it sucks in baseball having the Sox and Yanks pay for whoever they want. It’s not right. That’s why I get excited to here Jays rumors about Darvish/Wilson/Pujols, and Nationals rumors about Fielder and Wilson. You act like I put myself on some pedestal and want the rest of baseball to stay below the Sox in spending power. Maybe if you weren’t so assuming you wouldn’t say that clearly objective baseball fans are making “asinine predictions”

They’re avoided because of inflation. A dollar is worth less as time goes on. So, the owners are paying the players less in terms of real value.

Of course, inflation savings are heavily overstated by some backloaded contracts. While it doesn’t make much economic sense to frontload a contract, it makes the most sense for contracts to be of near-even value.

Trading a rookie that lead your team in HR and RBI that is under your control for the next 5 years is stupid. Giving him a shot at 3rd is the only move they have if Morales is healthy. Im not saying that Trumbo is a GREAT player yet, but adding Pujols and subtracting Trumbo is not nearly as productive as adding Pujols and subtracting Callaspo. If Trumbo can play at 3rd without killing himself I think they will give him a shot.

They aren’t looking at him to be teh full time or even 1/2 time 3B…..just to have some games 30-40 based on who is on the mound….for example when the GB pitching LH Wilson is pitching you’ll be damn sure Callaspo or Izzy will be at 3B and NOT Trumbo…

Agree to disagree but if he does well as you say then 3b is his.. I know what Scioscia said but he has to say that because Callaspo is still on our team and we don’t know if Morales will be healthy enough to play

I tried my best to crap on the keyboard and make it type in order to give a logical response. It’s just not working. Just because Trumbo stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night means he can play third. At least the other guys on the same team have had some experience playing third.

For this season and maybe next season….IF Trumbo proves he can’t play 3B…they can still put Albert there a few times a season to get all 3 of teh big bats in the line up at once….the options they have are wide open and that is what the Angels like…options to shuffle and rest players

To those saying that this contract is going to hamstring the Angels 7-10 years from now you really don’t know that. The Angels payroll 10 years ago was around $26mil, last year it was $117mil- do I think this trend is going to continue to a $400mil+ payroll in 2021? No, but the fact is Pujols will not be the only player making between $26-$30mil 7 years from now. Payrolls go up, players get paid more money, luxury taxes can be absorbed… Someone earlier mentioned that this is only a bad contract if the Angels can’t pay it, well guess what- they can.

The Angels also have several young players under control for many years to help counter the heavy contracts… Trumbo, Bourjos, Trout, Walden<- There's a third of our lineup that will be making way less than comparable players will be making on other teams. Not too shabby

5-6 years from now, Trumbo, trout, Bourjos, and Walden will be some of the highest paid players on the team. They don’t stay cheap forever. I’m pretty sure thats what were referring to here because its a backloaded contract.

5-6 years from now they will either just be hitting free agency or have just signed their first free agent deals, my point of the post is that we will have them on the relative cheap up until then, maybe Dipoto takes a queue from Tampa and locks them up early. _ See “The Time Value of Money”

And you’ll have guys coming up through the system to take their place if necessary. 5 years ago players like Trumbo, Bourjos, Trout and Aybar weren’t on anyone’s radar. Imagine the comments you would have gotten 5 years ago if you suggested that Albert would be an Angel – via FA.

You can’t predict what things will be like 5 years now from now at an individual player level. Heck, 5 years ago we were dreaming of the best offensive infield ever with Dallas McPhereson, Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick.

What you are proposing is exactly what Angels fans should be afraid of. If Pujol’s contract makes is so the Angels can’t afford to pay the talent moving through their organization then his contract is hampering the team. In that scenario the Angels are forced to use cheap young players to replace their talented major leauge core while paying Albert crazy money for debatable production, while they could be trading prospects from depth in order to fill holes at the major league level.

I really think Madson is going to the Angels. He will probably take a discount too just like CJ Wilson. I think he will go to Anaheim because of three reasons. One, they are now a serious playoff team. Two, the aquisition of star powered players always attract players to that team. Three ( the most important one ), he is from Orange County. He would love to win a World Series title for his hometown.

Making the move to 3B for Trumbo would be an interesting experiment. Not only is it important to have a good glove at that position but the question is can he play there effectively enough to turn double plays correctly and understand where he needs to be on cutoffs and relay plays. I know these guys are talented athletes but if they don’t have any experience at a position it could end up hurting the team more in my opinion.

If the last time he pitched was in HS where it looks like he went 10-2 with a 2.20 ERA in his senior year then most of the time talented players who have strong arms pitch and also play the field quite a bit. When he was drafted in 2004 he was being clocked at around 94 mph and according to Baseball America scouts basically said if he couldn’t cut it as a hitter then they would focus on his pitching.

Of course with all that being said it just means this guy has been talent on the field since playing pro ball in 2005 and since the Angels have a good young player under team control they might as well see what he can do at 3B and if it doesn’t work then I’m sure they can score a pretty decent trade with him.

It looks like he has played there before but that was back in 2004 for Villa Park High School. Since he was drafted he has played 624 games at 1B, 32 games at RF, and 1 game in LF for his time in the minors. Then last year for the Angels he played 149 games at 1B, 10 games at RF, and 1 game at LF.

If he played most of his development years from ages 13-18 then the fundamentals of playing that position should still be there I suppose. You made me do some research on the guy to dig up the last time he played at 3B.

I don’t mind that he left, that’s his(or her) choice. What I could not believe is when his wife went on the radio and blamed God. You have to think quite highly of yourself to think God did you wrong when you are getting offered $100MM+ to stay where you love and that’s not good enough. Poor lady.

The Angels were only able to sign Pujols to his ridiculously lucrative contract because their minor league system is stacked with talent that should be replacing expensive players relatively soon.

– Hunter’s contract (18mil) comes off the book next year.
– Mike Trout’s the best prospect in baseball.
– Bobby Abreu’s contract (9mil) is up after next year.
– Luis Jimenez has the look of a potential everyday 3B. Crushed AA pitching in pitcher friendly league.
– Jean Segura is a Top 50 prospect, should replace either Kendrick or Aybar at 2B/SS.
– Garrett Richards is a B+ prospect according to John Sickels. 4 “plus” pitches.
– C.J. Cron is a middle of the order bat that should only need 2 years tops to break into MLB.

Mike Trout, Luis Jimenez, Jean Segura and C.J. Cron is an awful lot of offense that will be arriving in next 2 years. The Angels will be fine. In the end, it all comes down to whther or not they win a World Series, and they certainly look primed to make a run.

The bad contract thing is so old and over played now…GET OVER IT. Many teams have bad contracts…giants with zito, red sox with lackey, cubs with soriano. Yankees with brunette ect….The angels have a ton of payroll comin off the books next year and if arte wants to spend 260 million on not only a once in a generation player, but a person that helps out his community tremendously so be it.

By my calculations, the contract that Heyman is putting up there only equals 240 million…so he seems to be missing 14 million dollars somewhere…so does that mean that the final seven years are actually 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, instead of 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30?

Trumbo moves pretty well for his size and he can judge the ball well off the bat. He was not bad at all at first. He has a cannon for an arm but his hands are not there yet. He needs to improve his foot work and how he squares up ground balls. Look at him to play 25-30 games at 1st, 60 at 3rd, 20-25 at DH and the rest in the outfield. Yes, he can play in LF or RF.

Trumbo had a +5 UZR 150 at 1B last year in a 1257.1 inning sample. He had a -10.7 in OF, but the sample size was only 30 innings over 2 years. I would try him at 3B, if I can’t get a decent trade. Maybe Morales or Pujols get injured and he he is needed to cover for them.

People keep talking about the money like its a deal breaker. what they spend is just monopoly money to us. the quality of team is what matters. once Hunter and Wells contracts are up we’ll be right back at making decent offers to free agents. last i check the contract isnt out on the field playing.

Man, the Angels backloaded Pujols’ contract? That’s always a mistake. How many 41 year olds (maybe older if you believe the rumors of lacking a birth certificate) do you know that are worth 30 million a season? Even with that sissy AL DH.

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I know you’re exaggerating, but in 10 years Crawford will be three years removed from the Sox payroll. Not saying its a good contract, but still. Also, the one benefit I see with the Pujols contract throughout the whole deal is it will put butts in seats.

Why would you expect him to be traded after those players are signed? His value would be much lower- the teams that might need a 1b would be much better off trading for a cheap glove with extreme power than signing one of those players. If he is traded it is after Morales is proven to be healthy… If then

FA contracts are NEVER friendly at the end of the deal. Of course, he won’t be worth $30m at age 40. Just like he won’t be worth $25m next year. He will be a net positive asset for years to come, then he will reach a point where is value is in line with his contract, then he will be a net negative liability.

That’s just how it goes. It boggles the mind that people focus so much on the back of the contract while ignoring the bargain that he is on the front of the deal.