Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.

In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to
the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch
in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion
about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse.
However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes
quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often
lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it
is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize
by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of
you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

I am always amazed how quickly the trade deadline comes in my money
leagues. While many owners have the luxury of trading all season
long if they want, there are those less fortunate souls like me
who must arrive at a decision about a player without having all
the information we would like to have available to us. For example:

- On one of my money-league teams, I have been trying to deal
Steven Jackson for some time. It is no secret he is giving up
more carries to Daryl Richardson than anyone could have expected.
With that said, I see a possible opening to deal him now with
Demarco Murray’s status in limbo. Unfortunately, there are
other factors that I must consider, such as the possibility that
my new RB1 (Trent Richardson) may not play or, at the very least,
perform as he had prior to his rib injury for three more weeks.
Am I comfortable enough with Pierre Thomas and Doug Martin in
the meantime should Richardson decide to heal up through Cleveland’s
bye and Murray miss another week or two…or more?

I’ll be the first to admit that having no official timetable
yet on Murray’s injury concerns me, but I also have a pretty
good feeling that Jackson will not be the reason I win a championship
this season in that league. Conversely, I believe a healthy Murray
could. Thus, what looks like an overly risky deal on my end at
first becomes a little bit more reasonable when one looks at it
from a different perspective.

Ultimately, these are the kinds of decisions almost all fantasy
owners are forced to make around this time of the year. And that’s
not a bad thing; sometimes, you have to make an educated guess
based on the available information at the time and take a leap
of faith. Other times, you get rewarded for the deals you don’t
make.

Speaking of information, it is my job to provide each of you
with as much of it as I can to help you make those important decisions
for your team. Entering my third week of watching every game,
I have made a noticeable tweak to the layout of this column. As
you can tell, I’ve decided to highlight two (or in some
rare cases, three) main storylines that fantasy owners –
dynasty, keeper or redraft – should consider going forward
and discuss those at length. Let’s get started:

Fantasy implications: Frank
Gore isn’t riding off into the sunset yet, but when his
inevitable fade comes – be it later this year or next –
Hunter is ready to at least accept an Ahmad Bradshaw-like lead-back
role in this offense. Although not quite to the extent of David
Wilson, Hunter simply plays at a different speed than everyone
else on the field. Consider me one of those people who do not
buy into the popular notion that Hunter will always be a change-of-pace
option. With or without Gore on my dynasty/keeper league roster,
Hunter is someone I would start targeting aggressively.

The few times Alex Smith wasn’t running for his life or
throwing to Michael Crabtree or Gore, Davis was drawing a fair
amount of bracket coverage. But his biggest problem in this game
was the gameplan. Most of Smith’s throws came at the top
of his three-step drop and Davis does most of his damage down
the field. Typically, those two things do not go together, so
when combined with Seattle’s pass rush, everything conspired
to contribute to Davis’ slow day. But perhaps the biggest
issue with Davis the last couple of games has been Smith’s
sprained middle finger on his throwing hand, which has almost
certainly impacted his accuracy and confidence in throwing to
Davis over the middle of the field. Feel free to use Davis’
last four games as your argument as to why you shouldn’t
have to give up much in a trade when attempting to snag him from
his current owner. I’ve seen nothing to make me believe
Davis isn’t going to return to the elite form he showed
us late last season and early in 2012.

Fantasy implications: Richardson talked himself into being ready
for this game, but it became apparent after taking a shot on the
right side of his body from 310-pound NT Antonio Johnson on the
Browns’ first offensive play that he wasn’t going
to be the same player we’ve become accustomed to this season.
The most telling run may have been his carry on second-and-goal
from the Colts 1-yard line to begin the second quarter when he
opted to stretch a run to the left instead of hitting the hole
like I’ve seen him do several times already this season.
In his postgame comments, Richardson stated his injury was “worse
than people think”, which suggested to me it was on his
mind anytime he had the option of running inside. With that said,
OC (and interim HC) Bruce Arians did him no favors by seemingly
calling every one of his runs to the left side, thereby exposing
the right side of his body to the defense.

Let’s be clear about one thing: Robert Griffin III is a
phenomenal athlete, which may actually have contributed to the
perception that Luck isn’t. Luck ran 957 yards in three
years at Stanford and posted similar workout numbers to Cam Newton
at the NFL Combine, so anyone surprised by his 103 yards and three
touchdowns on the ground through six games really shouldn’t
be. In a perfect world, Indianapolis wouldn’t need to count
on him to finish drives with his legs, but his offensive line
and running backs are works in progress, to say the least. The
Luck vs. RG3 debate should be alive and well in dynasty circles
for years to come as both players have certainly met, if not exceeded,
the unrealistic expectations they entered the league with this
season. While Griffin has certainly entrenched himself as a QB1
already, Luck is still best considered a matchup-based starter
at best. But given the fact that most of his supporting cast right
now is from his draft class, the fact Luck is being considered
a matchup-based starter is pretty high praise.

Saints-Bucs

Just because he’s a big back doesn’t mean he’s
a goal-line back

The Bucs’ pass defense is really THAT bad

Fantasy implications: While it is commendable that coaches have
found a way to include bigger backs like LeGarrette Blount into
the gameplan by using them in goal-line situations, I’d
venture to say that logic proves to be flawed just as often as
it works out. Exhibit 1A was the Bucs’ foray into the red
zone midway through the third quarter of this game when Blount
was asked to convert a one-yard run on three straight opportunities
and failed each time. Not surprisingly, Tampa Bay resorted to
a Josh Freeman bootleg on fourth down that failed and ultimately
cost the Bucs a chance to win this game. While bulk does provide
more power in theory and should allow a runner to break arm tackles
at the goal line, inserting a player like Blount over Doug Martin
actually limits an offense’s options and makes it even more
important that the offensive line not allow penetration because
Blount isn’t going to make anyone miss or beat any defender
to the pylon. Even with a quick turnaround this week, expect HC
Greg Schiano to reconsider his goal-line strategy, meaning Martin
should resume his early-season role as the every-down back.

Eli Manning showed us that Tampa Bay’s pass defense is
below average in Week 2 when he shredded it for 295 yards and
two TDs in the second half alone. In this contest, Drew Brees
upped the ante, going for 314 yards and four TDs in the first
half without the services of Jimmy Graham. Considering the Saints’
defense is about as dreadful, this should be a subtle hint to
owners that targeting NFC South pass defenses during the fantasy
playoffs is a good idea. Lucky for you, I have those teams for
you right here: Carolina (which just lost CB Chris Gamble for
the season) will face the Falcons, Chargers and Raiders. New Orleans
will meet the Giants, Bucs and Cowboys. And finally, the Bucs
will entertain the Eagles, Saints and Rams. Thank me now or live
in regret later.

Fantasy implications: Let me first say that when a team commits
about $90 million to three running backs in a little over a year
and then can’t run the ball, there’s a severe disconnect
between the front office and the coaching staff. While we can
only wonder if management could have landed a Pierre Garcon-type
talent in free agency this year as opposed to signing DeAngelo
Williams to a ridiculous contract last year, the fact of the matter
is that Newton is still a young pup learning how to be a quarterback
in this league as defenses begin to learn him. The one part of
his game they cannot take away is his ability as a ball carrier,
which is why it may not be a bad idea for OC Rob Chudzinski to
use a four-wide set as his base formation until Carolina lands
a suitable complement to Steve Smith. My idea would involve featuring
Smith and TE Greg Olsen in the slot, but would make life easier
for Newton in a few ways: 1) because Newton is such a viable run
threat and possesses such a huge arm, defenses cannot both load
the box AND give help to Smith; 2) with no more than six men in
the box, Newton (and whichever back joins him in the backfield)
would only need to beat one man to break a big run on a fairly
regular basis and 3) spreading out the defense typically makes
a mobile quarterback’s reads easier because defenses have
to respect the play-fake. In no way am I suggesting the Panthers
abandon the run, I am simply presenting an idea that opens up
the run game so Newton can be nearly impossible to defend once
again.

Continuing the Cam theme, there are a handful of metrics that
I like to use to verify what I see on film: passes by direction
and the accompanying QB rating that goes along with it. Why those
two stats? If you watch enough of a team’s games and get
to know its personnel as a result, you can start drawing some
solid conclusions as to what might be holding back the offense
when it struggles in the passing game. On throws of 20+ yards
this season, Newton’s rating is 80.7. While that number
is unremarkable, the biggest problem is that he has a mere 22
attempts of 20+ yards, which is less than one per quarter (which
tells us he’s not stretching the field vertically). More
telling, however, are his attempts to the left side of the field
where Smith usually lines up. On those throws, Newton’s
rating is 120.3. In addition to spreading the field horizontally
as I suggested above, the Panthers need to utilize Smith and Louis
Murphy much more down the field, much like they did when Newton
was posting huge passing numbers in his first two games as a rookie
last season. I’d be stunned if Carolina doesn't come back
to that gameplan sooner than later. Life will be tough for Newton
for at least one more week (Chicago in Week 8) but the schedule
eases up after that. Hang tight with Cam; I believe that he’ll
reward fantasy owners in the end.

Fantasy implications: For the most part, I thought Flacco had
moved past his whole home-road issues. In his second and third
seasons as a pro (2009 and 2010), Flacco was substantially better
at home than he was on the road. In 2011, there was very little
difference between his actual numbers and QB rating regardless
of home vs. away. In 2012, we are seeing his most extreme home
vs. road splits yet as he has passed for 1,271 yards, seven TDs
and two interceptions, all while completing 68% of his passes
in four home games (good for a 106.6 QB rating). In three road
games, his numbers are: 566 yards, two TDs, four INTs and 50%
completion (55.9 QB rating). By now, we all know the quarterback
receives too much of the credit when all is going well and too
much of the blame when it is not, but those numbers are troublesome
for fantasy owners. Normally, I’d suggest that owners play
the matchups when it comes to non-elite QBs – of which there
are mostly good ones for Flacco down the stretch – but the
Ravens QB is giving us plenty of reason to start him at home and
sit him on the road, regardless of opponent.

Let’s do a short recap of the Ravens’ first four
drives that ultimately led to their early 16-3 deficit in this
game: first drive – 1) four called passes, three runs; 2)
three called passes; 3) two called passes, one run and 4) one
called pass, one run. Obviously, there is very little mystery
as to which drive produced the three points. But the bigger issue
is that through one-plus quarter of an important game, Baltimore
went three series calling a total of two run plays, one of which
went to FB Vonta Leach. In other words, Rice saw four carries
and no targets in the passing game through four drives. Now it
may seem a bit harsh to criticize the play-calling in a situation
like this, but an offense’s best player – especially
when he is a running back – cannot average just one touch
per series when the game is still in doubt. Rice boosted his PPR
numbers a bit with three short catches on the Ravens’ final
drive, but for the day, he had just 14 touches on Baltimore’s
12 offensive drives. As is the case seemingly every year, expect
more reliance on Rice down the stretch as the Ravens use the bye
to access their team, now without many of its key defensive pieces.

Titans-Bills

Chris Johnson – The reward for holding him this long…make
him someone else’s problem

The resistible force and the movable object

Fantasy implications: These two entries are going to be relatively
short because I’ve already discussed them in length already
in previous columns. The first of those subjects involves Johnson,
who is now in the good graces of owners again. But as I have stated
a time or two, owners now have a three-week window to sell Johnson
and the opportunity isn’t going to get any better than now
coming off a huge game. After the Colts in Week 8, the Titans’
schedule lines up like this: Chicago in Week 9, Miami in Week
10, a bye in Week 11, Jacksonville in Week 12 and Houston in Week
13. So, over the course of five weeks, Johnson has one possible
plus-matchup. Jamie Harper is the clear goal-line back, meaning
Johnson’s chances for saving a bad day rushing with a cheap
score are slim. Over the last two-plus weeks, I have moved CJ
for Matt Forte (who I would also advise you to trade this week
or next if he is your RB1) and in a deal to get Trent Richardson
and Doug Martin in another league. I have no regrets about either
trade and think my teams will benefit as a result. My problems
have less to do with Johnson and more to do with his team, just
as I have said all along. Aim high and see if you can’t
snag yourself a RB like LeSean McCoy or someone of that ilk who
owners may be a bit down on because he isn’t matching last
season’s production.

The final score was only slightly reflective how pathetic the
Bills and Titans’ run defenses were on Sunday. The Titans
averaged 5.5 yards/pass play and the Bills averaged 6.0, both
numbers which were dwarfed by the yards/rush (Titans 7.3; Bills
6.9). By my count, 26 total offensive plays gained more than 10
yards while several other plays netted at least nine. In other
words, about one of every four plays in this game was a relatively
big play. The long and short of all this: the Titans have a problem
they probably can’t fix this season: tackling. The Bills
have a problem they can fix this season: effort. Examples of both
were glaring in this game, so until we see signs of change from
one or both teams, just about every player facing either defense
is a good start in fantasy.

Fantasy implications: It comes as little surprise to me that
as soon as the Packers lost Cedric Benson, they would need to
lean more on Cobb as an extension of the running game. I also
don’t believe it is a coincidence that in the two full games
Benson has missed, Green Bay has put together its two best scoring
performances of the season. The biggest reason for that change
is the breathtaking ability of Cobb, who is a big play waiting
to happen and incredibly versatile. His presence makes it impossible
for defenses to play soft because he is just as likely to turn
a five-yard hitch into a score as he is a 40-yard post pattern.
Some have suggested that Cobb’s role will shrink as soon
as Greg Jennings returns, but the player I think would be most
affected is James Jones. Regardless, it is getting harder to deny
that Cobb, at the very least, is a poor man’s Percy Harvin.
Green Bay would be foolish to diminish his role.

A bit player through three weeks, Givens has produced an NFL-best
four plays of 40+ yards over the last four games. While Brandon
Gibson has proven to be Sam Bradford’s favorite target in
the absence of Danny Amendola, Givens has been every bit as valuable.
Like Gordon in Cleveland, opponents have yet to adjust to the
game-breaking speed of the rookie and he has made them pay. But
his signature play from this game was not a fly route but rather
a quick screen that he took 50 yards (and could have easily gone
80 had he been a bit more patient). With Brian Quick still taking
his time adjusting to the NFL, it is Givens who is proving he
deserves attention in fantasy leagues now. I suspect that once
Amendola returns – which the Rams believe may come as soon
as Week 10 – it will be Gibson and not Givens who sees their
fantasy stock drop. If you doubt me, consider this fact: Givens
has produced more 50+ yard plays in four weeks (four) than the
entire Rams’ team produced from 2009-2011 combined (three).

One week after telling the world Green had proven his ability
to carry the “full load”, HC Mike McCarthy voiced
his displeasure with his running back’s inability to turn
“one- and two-yard runs” against the Rams into “three-,
four- or five-yard runs”. In fact, 14 of his 20 carries
went for two yards or less. Therefore, we might be on the verge
of another shift in the Packers’ backfield and about to
witness James Starks’ chance to recapture some semblance
of fantasy value. Despite his long injury history, Starks has
been my clear-cut choice for feature-back duties in this offense
all along. Whether he gets his shot in Week 8 or not vs. the Jags
is largely up to Green’s ability to produce on his first
few carries. While we could see more Cobb in the backfield as
well, he would probably only take on 3-4 carries at most. Starks
was the Packers’ choice as the bellcow running back in the
offseason and now that he is past his turf toe, he may get a shot
to prove he is the right choice after all.

Fantasy implications: As an undisciplined runner with blocking
issues in an offense centered around Eli Manning, the most Wilson
and his owners could have hoped from him was serving as the complementary
back in a 60-40 workload split with Ahmad Bradshaw. With that
said, it struck me as a bit odd the Giants saw fit to give him
zero carries in a game where the team averaged 3.4 YPC. Maybe
the call was made to teach Wilson a bit of humility after he made
comments earlier in the week proclaiming himself a future Hall
of Famer. The Giants aren’t a team that isn’t forced
to play rookies to compensate for poor drafting or free agent
selections, so they can afford to teach the kid a lesson now and
not have to pay for it in the loss column. There is no doubt he
is insanely talented and explosive and we have to believe New
York is doing its best to manage that as well as teach him how
to be a pro. Regardless of his lack of offensive action in Week
7, he is still one of my favorite roster stashes and someone who
could save your season before or during the fantasy playoffs.

I have to admit the biggest differences after watching Carolina
and Washington play on the same day are: 1) the Redskins do not
rely on Griffin near as much as the Panthers do Cam Newton and
2) Griffin almost always has a lot of space to work with. Despite
what fantasy owners think of HC Mike Shanahan’s revolving-door
approach at the running back position, opponents know they must
honor the run when they play against his teams. When the run game
starts clicking, defenses must react to it, which often opens
up big holes in the middle of the field when Griffin fakes the
zone read or down the field when he bootlegs after executing a
fake on a stretch play. Griffin helps himself by being a more
fundamentally sound passer than Newton, but many of Griffin’s
throws are easy by NFL standards because Shanahan does such a
fine job of making defenses defend everything. I still have my
doubts RG3 and/or Alfred Morris will stay healthy all season long,
but until they succumb to injury, owners can continue starting
each player every week.

Fantasy implications: Watching Peterson run against the Cardinals
was almost breathtaking. Forget for a second that he is currently
the No. 3 RB in fantasy football and instead focus on the fact
that he suffered one of the more devastating knee injuries we
have seen a running back take in recent memory less than a year
ago. While others were claiming he was back to form in Week 1,
I suggested he was roughly 75%. Now I estimate he is about 90%
and that is only because I haven’t seen him break out into
a full sprint yet or make any of his violent cuts he used to make
in order to break out into the open. I don’t regret the
draft grade I gave him in August for a second because, quite frankly,
this kind of recovery is off the charts. As far as his fantasy
owners are concerned, I expect his numbers going forward to be
a bit short of vintage Peterson because the schedule is daunting
and I still don’t see 100% AP yet, but not so much where
his owners need to be overly concerned. After all, if ACL and
MCL tears can’t stop this guy from producing, what will?

LaRod Stephens-Howling (or “Hyphen” as some people
call him) is one of several players currently in the NFL who could
be considered a poor man’s Darren Sproles. William Powell
played better last week because he was allowed to run outside
– accentuating his skill set – and received better
blocking. This week, Hyphen essentially received the same kind
of outside runs and good blocking Powell benefited from once Powell
got himself in the doghouse after fumbling on the Cardinals’
first kickoff return. While this 100-yard rushing performance
will end up being much more the exception than the rule, understand
that his ability to perform like this is not in question, but
rather the ability to accept any kind of regular heavy workload
at his size. Overlooking the fact that Arizona faces a difficult
schedule for any running back, understand the team will likely
utilize a “hot hand” approach – whether or not
it makes sense to do so – until Beanie Wells returns, making
both Powell and “Hyphen” dicey plays every week.

Fantasy implications: I don’t think there is much debate
that Stevan Ridley is the best RB the Patriots have right now,
but that doesn’t mean he is going to be featured for the
rest of the season (if he ever was…more on that in a second).
At least in Bill Belichick’s eyes, Vereen will earn himself
more playing time if he simply stays healthy and not as other
players get hurt (like Brandon Bolden). Surprisingly, Ridley has
been on the field for just 44.9% of the team’s snaps this
season, which leaves the door open for two backs (presumably Danny
Woodhead and Vereen, if he can stay healthy) to split what amounts
to about 40-45 snaps per game since Vereen is a bigger, stronger
and younger version of Woodhead. It isn’t out of the realm
of possibility that Vereen also makes Woodhead something of an
afterthought and comes close to splitting snaps with Ridley. In
no way am I promising a smooth ride here, but given how Belichick
feels about Vereen’s intelligence and versatility, the second-year
RB is finally worth an add in most PPR leagues.

Despite limited snaps and opportunities last year, Mark Sanchez
found Kerley when he was on the field, so with all the turnover
and inconsistency in New York this year, it is no wonder that
a good route runner with dependable hands has emerged from the
pack. Stephen Hill’s once again proved he has a long way
to go while Jason Hill and Chaz Schilens are bit players at best.
Meanwhile, Kerley has posted two very serviceable fantasy games
over the last three weeks since Santonio Holmes’ injury,
with the only poor game coming against the Colts when they really
didn’t need the passing game. In that time, he torched Houston
on a deep route and burned New England on a few corner routes.
Considering he was pegged as a 5-9 slot receiver, it is a pretty
big deal that he is getting his yards down the field as well as
over the middle. That kind of use leads to consistency, which
is something we all hope to get from our receivers in fantasy.

After his one-catch, eight-yard performance against the Jets
last week, we began to hear the talk again that Lloyd is disappointing
fantasy owners. Let me tell you this right now: if the Lloyd owner
in your league feels that way, take his/her “problem”
off of his/her hands. The “disappointing” Lloyd is
still on pace for 80 catches and has seen at least seven targets
in all but one game, so it is a good bet his 11.6 YPC will pick
up a bit in the coming weeks with matchups against the Bills (Week
10), Colts (Week 11) and Dolphins (Week 13). For the most part,
Lloyd is a downfield receiver in this offense and that role is
prone to a down game or two given the fact those throws are lower-percentage
attempts. I’ll admit I’m surprised by the low touchdown
total (one), but it hasn’t been for a lack of trying as
it seems he is the victim of a spectacular defensive play each
time he attempts to make a play in the end zone. Yet again in
this game – despite being credited with three drops –
Lloyd was the target for Tom Brady on a deep shot that could have
won the game in regulation for the Patriots. Keep playing Lloyd;
it will pay off in a big way.

Fantasy implications: Without a doubt, the biggest story to come
out of this game was the foot injury suffered by Maurice Jones-Drew
and what it means in fantasy going forward. At this point, all
we think we know right now is that he avoided the dreaded Lisfranc
injury and will miss multiple weeks. Rather than speculate whether
that means three weeks or the rest of the season, what we do know
is that Rashad Jennings is now a valuable fantasy property once
again. While his present and future owners have every right to
be excited about his workload in MJD’s absence, they have
a right to be concerned that Jennings could only muster a shade
over two yards/carry against a defense that gave up huge games
to Willis McGahee and Reggie Bush already this season. With a
few exceptions, Jacksonville’s run schedule looks promising
for fantasy owners, but owners obviously cannot count on seven
catches and 58 yards in the passing game from Jennings each week.
Jennings is a good player, but his upside is probably capped as
a mid-RB2 while MJD is out.

There has been much made about Oakland’s conversion to
a zone-blocking scheme this year. The Raiders said they installed
some gap plays during the bye to complement the zone runs they
have been calling for McFadden in hopes that he could find the
same kind of success he experienced last season. The problem I
see is this: Oakland seems to be calling a lot of inside zone
runs and very few outside zone runs (the ones OC Greg Knapp saw
Houston use so effectively in his short time as an assistant there).
Combined with poor blocking – or a slow transition to the
new scheme – McFadden’s YPC is current at a career-low
3.1. Reports of McFadden’s demise as an explosive runner
are premature simply because we’ve only had one chance to
see him truly explode (his big touchdown run in Week 3). The Raiders’
schedule and McFadden’s talent level suggest this is a hold
situation for fantasy owners as volume alone will help his fantasy
owners stay afloat. When things begin to “click” later
this year – which I believe they will – his owners
will want him around.

Steelers-Bengals

I don’t care if Ike Taylor played his best game of the
year, a healthy A.J. Green should never end a game with one catch

“They are who we thought they were…and we let them
off the hook.”

Fantasy implications: Most football people believe that Taylor
played his first good game of the season in this game, but in
what seemed to be a theme in the last two games of this week,
an offense simply cannot allow its freakish talent to be shut
down. Much like Calvin Johnson, defenses don’t go into a
week anymore thinking they will stop Green near as much as they
simply hope to contain him. On the other hand, it is the offense’s
responsibility to move its most important chess piece around and
change up his routes enough to where defenses simply can’t
stop everything he runs. One of many reasons why players like
Green and Johnson should rarely ever have one-catch games is because
their catch radius is nearly as high as it is wide. Quarterbacks
have a larger margin for error and forced throws aren’t
necessarily bad throws when the receiver is clearly the only one
who can make a play on it. Let’s hope the Bengals use their
bye week to remember (or learn) that concept and apply it to fantasy’s
former top receiver.

I’m using the famous Dennis Green quote to discuss the
Bengals’ feeble offensive attempts against a Pittsburgh
defense that, quite frankly, isn’t very good (especially
without Troy Polamalu). BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 42 yards on
eight carries on Cincinnati’s first drive alone. Somehow,
“Law Firm” carried the ball only 10 more times despite
the fact the Bengals never trailed by more than seven points and
led for the majority of the game. Between abandoning the running
game Cincinnati is supposedly so stubborn in establishing and
not making Green a priority on offense, it is little wonder why
the Bengals are on a three-game losing streak with all those setbacks
coming against teams with losing records. As I stated last week,
Cincinnati has a long history of not maximizing its on-field talent.
How does this relate to fantasy? During the fantasy playoffs,
the Bengals face Dallas, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Seeing as
how this offense performed against the Steelers already, how can
we have much confidence the Bengals will thrive against those
talented NFC East defenses that just happen to have cornerbacks
who can match up well to Green and stop the run? I’m not
suggesting it is time to sell all of your Bengals, but if you
hold them, just don’t expect the likes of Andy Dalton, Green-Ellis
or Green to match their first-half production.

Fantasy implications: Let’s get one thing straight right
away: Detroit has faced a number of good pass defenses this year,
so it is not unthinkable that Stafford has lost some confidence
along the way. The irony, though, is that his mechanics this year
are almost on par with his opposite number in this game, Jay Cutler.
Stafford, like Cutler, has reason to believe in his arm, but instead
of stepping into his throws – as I saw him do many times
last year – I see a lot of bad footwork and fade-away throws.
Instead of throwing the ball all over the lot like it did last
year, Detroit has decided to do what its opponents want it to
do – run the ball. And we’ve seen the results. While
I cannot say for certain that Stafford is offended by this change
of philosophy, he is sure playing like it. Although zone defense
should force the Lions to drive the field methodically, it isn’t
as if they lack players who cannot take advantage of that coverage.
But the bigger problem here is that we can’t pretend this
is a new development; Stafford beat zone coverage a number of
times last year en route to 5,000+ yards and 40+ TDs. The good
news is that the schedule lightens up, but Stafford didn’t
exactly light up the one weak defense he faced this season (Tennessee
in Week 3). Johnson will eventually get his numbers simply because
he will have plenty of opportunities, but Stafford’s fantasy
stock isn’t going to improve until he corrects his fundamentals
and Detroit remembers what it does well.

This entry is simply a nod to the Bears’ defense, which
mix in just enough other defenses to say it isn’t strictly
a Cover-2 defense. For the most part, however, Chicago is a Cover-2
defense that typically gets pressure with its front four, leaving
the incredible athletes they have on the back end to swarm to
the ball when quarterbacks are forced to unload the ball quickly.
When paired with a good offense, it can make for a lethal combination
for opponents. Besides remaining healthy so far, the reason the
defense is so much better than last year is because it is almost
always playing with the lead. In other words, if an undisciplined
offense like Detroit’s doesn’t jump out on the Bears
early, the offense will struggle. But the one aspect that separates
Chicago from so many other defenses is its ability to create turnovers.
Unlike other teams who just talk about doing it, you can actually
watch Chicago play on TV and see how hard it must work at it.
Whether it is Charles Tillman punching the ball out of a receiver’s
hands or Brian Urlacher sticking his shoulder into running back’s
arm, you can just tell how much of a priority this coaching staff
places on forcing turnovers. I can’t speak as to whether
or not the Bears will remain fantasy’s best defense because
of some of their remaining opponents, but there is no doubt they
will remain elite as long as they stay healthy.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.