'Top two' primary puts stamp on two dozen races

California voters in November will see ballots unlike any others they have ever been asked to fill out before.

The debut of the state’s new “top two” primary Tuesday finished with at least two-dozen congressional and state legislative races ending with candidates from the same party qualifying for the general election.

That means in some districts voters will be able to pick between two Republicans or two Democrats. One of those 24 in the spotlight is a coastal North San Diego County District where Republicans Rocky Chavez, an Oceanside city councilman, and Sherry Hodges, a former legislative aide, came in first and second.

A handful of independents also qualified for November, although supporters of the top-two were hoping it would lead to even more unaffiliated candidates since 36 were on ballots.

Whether the long-anticipated top-two ballot system will fulfill lofty expectations to energize voters and deliver more centrists is not easily answered.

A number of factors contribute to those doubts, political analysts say. Among those: low voter turnout, a general trend of incumbent strength and who wins in November. New boundary maps that changed many district demographics also may have helped shape the outcomes.

“The big story is the low voter turnout,” said Allan Hoffenblum, who publishes the “Target Book,” an election primer. “When you have that low of a turnout that the means the election is still overwhelmingly partisan.”

With presidential nominations sewed up and only two statewide initiatives, the June ballot had little to excite voters, Hoffenblum said.

“It’s not necessarily a total test of top-two,” he said. A better gauge will be 2014 when voters will have a choice for governor and other constitutional offices, Hoffenblum said.

Eric McGhee, who analyzes election issues for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, said it may take a few election cycles for the top-two to prove its value.

McGhee said his quick read indicates that only 12 candidates who were endorsed by their respective parties lost. That is out of 212 statewide.

“My expectation is we may elect a few more moderates, but there won’t be wholesale change,” he said.

Nevertheless, he sees an opportunity for incremental change as incumbents retire and more centrists are lured into running.

“This is only the first election … The numbers can build over time,” McGhee said.

Despite some optimism, the status quo could prevail. Only five independents made it to the November finale in either the legislative or congressional campaigns. Plus, some heavily targeted incumbents advanced.

New political boundary lines adopted for June also played a role in expanding voter choice.

San Diego architect Gil Ontai, a Republican who served on the commission that drew new maps based on 2010 census data, said the election results also vindicate their work in the face of charges of bias.

Ontai pointed to the too-close-to-call numbers as Democrats Scott Peters and Lori Saldaña wait to see who joins Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray on the November ballot.

“There the shift in boundary lines clearly made that district much more competitive,” Ontai said.

Another example cited by Ontai is the closeness of a San Diego Senate race between Assembly Democrat Marty Block and former Assemblyman George Plescia, a Republican.

“What this election demonstrated is we really haven’t changed the districts to favor any one political party. It comes down to the voters,” Ontai said.