Senate GOP More Optimistic About Midterms

At the dawn of the election year, Senate Republicans feel a renewed sense of optimism in their fight to net the six seats necessary to win the majority in 2014.

The stumbling rollout of Obamacare has given the GOP hope it can loosen the Democrats’ grip on the majority by ousting its four most vulnerable incumbents.

Still, several factors could influence how things appear in the final months of President Barack Obama’s second midterm cycle. And Democrats have proved in recent years they know how to win tough Senate races.

Will the Obamacare implementation improve? Will the economy rebound? How big of a fight will Republicans put up over the debt ceiling? And how about the GOP’s pesky primaries?

These unknowns are why optimism — but not overconfidence — is the overriding feeling among the Senate GOP.

“I’m more bullish about the GOP’s chances in the Senate now than I have been at any point this cycle,” said Dan Judy, a pollster at GOP firm North Star Opinion Research. “The shutdown seems like a distant memory and the Ryan/Murray deal went a long way to settling things down so that our guys can really focus on the midterms.”

The late Aug. 19 primary gives the eventual GOP nominee less than three months to focus solely on Begich. Former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan is outraising his opponents, and a super PAC backing him just launched its first ads against Begich.

Democrats are defending Pryor in part by defining Republican Rep. Tom Cotton as a “reckless and irresponsible” alternative. The state is trending Republican, and Cotton has the support of both the national party and conservative outside groups.

The Senate minority leader faces opponents on his right and left. Before taking on Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, McConnell must first dispense with Republican businessman Matt Bevin, who is supported by conservative outside groups.