YELTSIN, POLICIES FACE THE VOTERS

James P. Gallagher, Chicago TribuneCHICAGO TRIBUNE

The ambitious young workers at Cosmos-S, one of the innovative companies that have sprung up in Russia since the collapse of communism, are precisely the sort of people Boris Yeltsin needs if he is to prevail in Sunday's pivotal referendum.

But only days before the nationwide balloting, which could determine the harried Russian president's political fate, Zhenia Rogozin, a driver at the private satellite communication firm, still had not made up his mind.

On a personal level, the 22-year-old Rogozin said he prefers Yeltsin to his conservative opponents in Russia's national legislature. But he has deep doubts that the reformist president ever will get a handle on the country's economic distress.

"I'm leaning toward casting a vote of confidence in Yeltsin, but I probably won't make up my mind until the last minute," Rogozin said. "And if I also cast a `yes' vote for Yeltsin's reforms, it will only be because I'm not yet ready to give up hope."

Whether Yeltsin emerges from Sunday's vote with his prospects enhanced or his powers diminished will depend in large measure on how much hope the Russian people are still willing to invest in his lofty vision of a more democratic future.

The results of the referendum also will hinge on what voters decide is the greater threat facing the country-Yeltsin's unpopular economic program, which has impoverished much of the population, or a possible Communist revival if Russia's first democratically elected president were to leave office.

Yeltsin and his aides have worked hard to convince Russians that a defeat for the president would leave the door wide open to die-hard Communists and xenophobic nationalists who want to turn back the clock to the Cold War and write finish to political and economic change.

Yeltsin's foes, including Vice President Alexander Rutskoi, have sought to focus voter attention on plummeting production, soaring inflation and the looming threat of millions being thrown out of work at state enterprises faced with bankruptcy.

It is these problems that if left unchecked will drive the Russian people into the arms of dangerous extremists, Yeltsin's more moderate opponents warn. The best hope for a democratic future lies in a more cautious, less disruptive course of reforms, they maintain.

Irina Ketskalo, who works in the Cosmos-S advertising department, buys that argument and plans to vote against Yeltsin.

"I don't like what's happening in my country," she explained. "I see things I have never seen before-poor people picking up cigarette butts off the street and collecting empty bottles. I'd say Yeltsin has not been a very good president. In fact, he's been a very bad president."

Tanya Yermoshina, another advertising department worker, shares Ketskalo's concern about the economy, but said she is more worried about the country's political situation.

"Sure, we have serious economic difficulties, but I'm willing to put up with them a while longer because I'm afraid the Communists are going to make a comeback," Yermoshina, 34, said. "Now that we have this political crisis, our economic problems don't seem so important any more."

The referendum, which could touch off another dangerous round of hostilities between Yeltsin and the country's conservative legislature, poses four questions: whether voters support Yeltsin; whether they back his economic policies; do they favor early elections for president; and do they want early elections for parliament.

A simple majority of Sunday's turnout will determine the outcome of the first two questions.

But last week Russia's highest court ruled that a majority of the country's 107 million eligible voters is needed to authorize early elections because that in effect would be a change in the constitution.

Past events have shown repeatedly how risky it is to take Yeltsin at his word, but the president has promised to resign if the voters say they have no confidence in him.

On the other hand, he has hinted that he will move against the legislature if he receives wide backing in the referendum and if a strong majority votes for new parliamentary elections.

On Friday, Yeltsin's office released a draft of a proposed new constitution that would assign most political power to the president, raising speculation that he might call for a special constitutional convention if he scores well in the referendum.

Anticipating the possibility of a new confrontation with Yeltsin, legislative leaders have instructed members of the Congress of People's Deputies to be ready to reassemble early next week in Moscow.

A low turnout, however, could reduce the referendum to a meaningless if costly exercise, and the country's monthslong political stalemate could drag on indefinitely.

Pro-Yeltsin activists are worried about apathy on the part of their potential supporters.

After the long Russian winter, spring weather finally has arrived in Krasnoyarsk and other key areas across the country, and many Russians might pass up the referendum and spend the weekend in the country.

Yeltsin's opponents in this Siberian city have waged a particularly nasty campaign against the president, depicting him as a fool, a would-be tyrant and a stooge of American interests.

Newspaper ads and posters slapped up on walls throughout the city urge "true patriots" to remember that "a vote for Yeltsin is a vote for the demise of Russia" or "a vote to make Russia an American colony."

But the real weak spot in Yeltsin's campaign is his sorry economic record. After several months of supporting the radical "shock therapy" program urged on him by the West, the president abandoned this approach but offered nothing to replace it.

Even the man the president appointed as acting governor of the sprawling Krasnoyarsk Region, which stretches from the Arctic almost to the Mongolian border, has announced he will vote "no" on the question that deals with Yeltsin's economic programs.