November is coming. What we know - and don't - about how NC voters will lean | OPINION

In the last decade or so, a not-so-small cottage industry has sprung up that is interested in (some might say obsessed with) predicting election results. These analysts rely on a variety of methods to forecast electoral outcomes—some use the “fundamentals” (factors outside of the candidate’s control), some add polling data, and others use other candidate-specific factors (things like fundraising, candidate experience and the like).

While their performance varies by election and race, these methods, by and large, provide a fairly accurate view of what is likely to happen in November. For example, in the 2016 presidential vote, three “fundamentals” based models predicted the popular vote within less than half of one percentage point. Congressional forecasts based on the fundamentals were similarly successful in 2016, with a few predicting almost exactly the number of seats that would emerge for each party after the votes were cast. While state legislative forecasts are fewer in number, the ones that do exist likewise performed fairly well in 2016.

To some degree, predicting electoral success is not that difficult. Thanks to a combination of partisan sorting (Democrats increasingly settle among Democrats and Republicans increasingly settle around other Republicans) and gerrymandering, the vast majority of legislative outcomes are a virtual fait accompli before a single vote is cast. Simply put: most legislative districts just aren’t that competitive. And despite a significantly different political mood in 2018, anyone who expects radical change in 2018 is likely to be disappointed.

According to the Cook Political Report, about 6 percent of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for re-election are considered “toss-ups.” Adding the more generous definition of districts that “lean” toward one party or the other (as opposed to those that are “likely” or “solidly” in favored for one party or the other) results in about 15 percent of the House seats that are considered up for grabs by one definition or the other. Two of North Carolina’s 13 congressional districts are predicted to be competitive (the 2nd and 13th).

While not subject to gerrymandering, most U.S. Senate seats are not expected to be competitive, either. Of the 35 Senate seats up for re-election, about 20 percent are considered to be “toss-ups,” with another 11 percent falling into the “lean” category. While the predictions in the U.S. House are generally friendly toward the prospect of a Democratic majority come Nov. 7, the Senate predictions are less positive, as only 9 of the 35 Senate seats are held by Republicans and only three of those nine are expected to be close.

Closer to home, we can expect that a small number of districts will be competitive in November. Using a variety of measures (primarily the past voting history of the district), we can expect that around 14 percent of General Assembly districts (both House and Senate) will be fairly competitive, while the remainder will be decided by relatively large margins. Given their supermajority control, it is not surprising that the Republicans hold the vast majority of these potentially competitive seats.

Despite the fact that most electoral outcomes are unlikely to be close, that does not mean that 2018 won’t be important. There are not many seats separating the Democrats and Republicans in both chambers of the U.S. Congress; a small swing could create radical change in political power. Similarly, it wouldn’t take much of a blue wave to give Gov. Cooper an early Christmas present by erasing the Republicans’ supermajority control of the General Assembly in Raleigh. Just because most elections won’t be close doesn’t mean that elections don’t matter—they do.

These predictions are, of course, not perfectly accurate. There will be upsets. Some districts that we expect to be blow-outs will undoubtedly be competitive, and some we expect to be competitive will not be. Nonetheless, there is value in remembering that, despite what often seems like a rapidly changing and unpredictable political landscape, there is actually a good bit of stability and predictability in American electoral behavior.

Christopher Cooper is professor and department head in the Department of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University. This is the fifth in a monthly series of columns that will run through the end of 2018.