What Apple Really Needs More Than Anything Right Now Is Another Juicy Rumor

After another tough week for Apple
investors last week, there's one sliver of good news — the
quarter is almost over.

That means we're much closer to Apple reporting earnings. Which
means we're that much closer to getting an actual read on where
Apple's business stands.

But even after Apple reports earnings it might not be enough to
help the company's stock regain its mojo.

The big problem for Apple right now is doubt about iPhone 5
demand. Just about every single analyst says he's spoken with
supply chain sources in Asia who say Apple drastically cut its
orders for Q1 iPhone manufacturing. These analysts believe that
demand is weak, otherwise Apple wouldn't cut orders.

When Apple reports earnings it needs to sell 48-50 million
iPhones to beat analyst estimates and prove that demand is
strong. There are some signs Apple can do that, despite what
analysts are saying. Kantar reported Apple's
U.S. market share is at a record high, which suggests very
strong sales.

Even if Apple does this, though, it still won't be enough!
Analysts are bearish about the first quarter of 2013. And that
means we have to go through this whole guessing game about iPhone
demand for another three months.

A week ago Munster put out a note on why he still thinks Apple's
stock can get to $900. Unlike the rest of the analysts Munster
didn't cut his target.

In his note, he wrote something pretty interesting about why
Apple's stock had done so well for the last five years. He
basically said it's been driven by the rumor mill in addition to
the company's strong results:

The bottom line is that we believe AAPL needs something that
investors can look forward to in the numbers for the stock to
work well. We believe a core reason the stock worked in early
2012 was expectations for the iPhone 5 as the stock started the year at ~$411
and peaked at ~$702 in September ahead of the iPhone launch (71%
increase at the peak). In 2011, we believe the stock worked (from
$323 to $422 at the peak, 31% increase) due to anticipation of
the next iPhone and iPad ramp. We are more optimistic about 2013 as
we believe Apple will not only launch a television, but also a
lower priced iPhone for pre-paid markets in 2014 or potentially
sooner.

This year, the rumor mill said Apple was working on a TV. But no
TV came. And then the rumor mill slowed down. In fact, it's
almost out of business.

Arnold Kim, founder of MacRumors, recently tweeted,
"so this is a really slow rumor time. uncharacteristically so."
(Part of the reason is that Apple just updated all of its
products.)

Apple, like many tech companies, has to deal with goofy, but
self-imposed, double standard. Tech companies pride themselves on
disrupting the standard way of doing business. At the same time,
they themselves are at risk of being disrupted by smaller
startups, and bigger tech rivals. Therefore, if a company like
Apple isn't constantly releasing a new world-changing gadget,
people think it's growing old and ripe for disruption.

Considering the fact that there aren't any really strong whispers
about the next world-changing product from Apple, it makes some
sense that Apple's stock momentum has slowed.