Tuesday, October 09, 2018

WHY WOULD NIKKI HALEY RUN IN 2020?

President Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki R. Haley, said on Tuesday she would resign at the end of the year....

Ms. Haley, who has long been seen as a potential presidential candidate, said she had no intention of running for the presidency in 2020, as has been speculated. Instead, she said, she plans to campaign for Mr. Trump’s re-election.

I don't know why she did this now, but I can speculate on what happens next. Could there be a South Carolina shuffle -- Lindsey Graham becomes attorney general or secretary of defense and then Haley is named as his replacement? (I don't believe Graham's claim that he's not interested in a Cabinet position.) I find this a plausible scenario, but it's not the only one..

However, the notion that Haley would run against Trump in 2020 isn't plausible. Because she was a critic of Trump during the 2016 campaign, she has credibility with conservative Trump skeptics -- but because she was a loyal Trump soldier for nearly two years, she retains political viability in a party that still loves Trump. Why would she throw this away?

So why run in 2020? Maybe she thinks Trump will be out of office by then. (I don't -- there's literally nothing he could do, including shoot a guy on Fifth Avenue, that would inspire any Republican senator to vote to convict after an impeachment.) Even if you think Trump will be gone soon, won't the 2020 candidates have to start campaigning this coming winter? If Trump's in trouble, he won't be in trouble that fast. The base will still be loyal to him, and anyone who announces a challenge will be a sworn enemy of MAGA Nation. So she'd be crazy to run.