Well, the Nationals just traded three very, very good pitching prospects for one very good outfielder in a move that was shocking to baseball insiders, let alone Nats fans.

In case you’re not sure what we’re talking about: Nats acquired Adam Eaton, he of the 6-win 2016 season and his ridiculously team-friendly contract (he’s signed with options through 2021 for just a measly $38.4M). In return we gave up three of our four best starting pitching prospects in the form of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and 2016 1st rounder Dane Dunning.

To put things in a different way: we just acquired 5 years of Eaton for a combined potential of nearly *twenty* years of rotation pieces for the south siders. We likely made their rotation for the next decade with this move, even if you take an entirely pessimistic viewpoint of the ceilings of all three of these players.

For me; it was too much to pay (in case you couldn’t tell how I felt from the title of the post). The Nats just traded away literally all their near-to-the-majors starter depth in a complete win-now move that, while I’ve been advocating for it, seemed like an overpay. I could see/make the argument for Giolito and Dunning, or Lopez+Dunning, but all three seems gratuitous. Ironic because i’ve just beek talking about not over-valuing your prospects.

The best case scenario for these three arms is a #1, #2 and #5 starter for years to come. But since best case is never going to happen, lets take some worst-case scenarios for these three guys we just traded. I know Giolito’s critics are large here, but bear with me:

Giolito never harnesses his control and turns into essentially Alex Meyers.

Lopez never develops a secondary pitch and is turned into a late-inning 100-mph reliever

Dunning’s craftiness only takes him as far as a 5th starter or middle-relief guy for a middling team.

Still, that’s three major league arms, cost controlled first round talents with their bonus money already paid for. The reality will be somewhere in the middle.

What this deal says is the high price of a good contract. Eaton is getting paid absolute peanuts compared to the value he’s producing, he plays (or can play) a valuable position, and that’s really what the cost was all about. If Eaton was on a $18M/year contract he’s only costing one of those three arms in return.

Interesting that literally as soon as this trade occurred, you started seeing people “in the know” talking about how the Nationals had “soured” on Giolito. I’m sure we’ll hear more about it soon; whispers about work ethic and approach. Where were these comments yesterday?

Get ready for spot-starts from A.J. Cole and Austin Voth; you don’t get through modern baseball seasons on 5 starters anymore, and we don’t exactly have the most reliable rotation.

I suspect Danny Espinosa (who is now patently surplus to requirements) gets flipped for hopefully an optionable starter to give us some more depth. I like Voth and am excited to see what he can do … but i’m not trusting him to give this team 4-5 starts and compete.

Our respectable farm system is now gutted: no matter what you think of these three arms heading the other way, they were #1, #3 and #6 prospects in our system. We have mortgaged the future for the present in a large way.

Nats new Lineup: Eaton (CF), Turner (SS), Harper (RF), Murphy (2B), Rendon (3B), Werth (LF), Zimmerman (1B), Norris (C). Decent lefty-righty balance which could be stretched a bit if you broke up Harper & Murphy. Eaton makes a bit more sense at leadoff since Turner has proven to have a bit more power than we thought, and Eaton is a lefty, but I could see them switched and then going Harper-Rendon-Murphy or something like that so you don’t have 3 lefties in a row. But this is now a pretty fast lineup at the top.

Gonzalez is key in the NLDS. Photo via Wikipedia/Flickr from user muohace_dc

As requested in the comments, here’s a good thread to argue about and attempt to read the tea leaves as to what the team will do for its upcoming divisional series against Los Angeles.

A quick note before starting: the Dodgers are literally dead last in the majors against lefties as a team. The have a team BA of .216 against all lefties, which is 15 points lower than the 29th ranked team. They have a 75 wRC+ against lefties and a .634 OPS figure as a team … by way of comparison, Michael Taylor has an OPS figure of .648 for the 2016 season. So the Dodgers hit lefties kinda like Taylor hits pitching in general. I only mention this because, while I knew the Dodgers were “bad” against lefties, I didn’t know they were this bad.

So, common sense may seem to indicate that the team would know an important fact like this and either a) plan their rotation accordingly, and b) plan their bullpen accordingly. But, we are talking about a team managed by Dusty Baker, and I’m not sure he’ll have it in him to perhaps consider using Gio Gonzalez in this fashion.

So, that being said, here’s what I think will happen with the rotation and bullpen, based on what we’ve been seeing the last few weeks. (Btw, i am assuming that the Nats don’t blow home field advantage this weekend and the first two games are in DC … which may be a bad assumption but I can’t see them losing 2 of 3 to the unfortunately reeling Marlins)

Rotation goes (and this isn’t much of a surprise): Scherzer, Roark, Gonzalez, Ross

Discussion: Scherzer is scheduled to throw Sunday 10/2 in the final game of the season, giving him normal 4 days rest before the first game of the NLDS (here’s the MLB 2016 post-season schedule). Past that, i’m guessing that Baker will re-arrange the rotation based on performance and not the current order since everyone will have plenty of rest by the time the NLDS rolls around. Assuming that the final three games feature the expected probables of A.J. Cole tonight, Tanner Roark tomorrow 10/1 and Scherzer, then Roark would be on five days of rest for the NLDS game 2.

Gonzalez then goes in Game 3, in LA. Is that bad? Maybe not; in 2016 his home/away splits are nearly identical; he’s been not good no matter where he pitches.

Game 4 is where we think Joe Ross goes 100 pitches or so, which might get him to the 5th inning, and then we see Reynaldo Lopez in a “once through the order” bridge to the back end of the bullpen. Ross seems like he has gotten back to the point where he can go.

This leaves the likes of Mat Latos, A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito off the post-season roster. None has really merited inclusion.

Petit: he’s struggled badly and his long man role is replicated by Lopez or Perez

Glover: he has also struggled down the stretch and loses out in lieu of a third lefty

Gott, Martin and Grace: all have pitched well since their 9/1 call ups, but none are better options or have made cases to supplant the four righties listed above, all of whom have excelled this year. But I will say, these three may make excellent in-house options to replace the guys who will likely be departing this off-season via FA (specifically Belisle and Rzepczynski).

I think this is a good plan of attack.

Who is the first lefty out of the pen to face the likes of Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez or Chase Utley? Per their current depth chart, the Dodgers are starting no less than six guys who are lefty only but the above four are the ones to be most scared of. I think it’ll be scrabble, but having three arms makes it easier to do lefty matchups multiple times in a game.

I have MLB.com notifications setup on my phone. Normally I get fun notifications about the Nats’ announced lineup for the coming game, or that so-and-so is a triple from a cycle, or information about Vin Scully‘s retirement tour. But I certainly wasn’t expecting early Sunday morning to see this alert: “Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez, 24, killed in boating accident.” It was pretty jarring, and obviously out of the blue.

I’m not going to quote Fernandez’s career stats like other publications have done; I think its tacky and not unlike printing some football player’s career rushing stats along with the announcement that they’re being charged with sexual battery. The story is that a young player is suddenly gone; one week he’s in discussions about whether he’s in the running for the 2016 Cy Young, the next we’re seeing instagram pictures of his pregnant girlfriend and putting ourselves in her shoes and considering the awfulness of the situation. Watching the news lately is already awful enough (every story is about a shooting in a mall or a god-awful political race that can’t end quickly enough); now this adds to the overall awfulness.

Unfortunately, we live in a TMZ-driven society where the death of an athlete, or a celebrity, or a politician of note is given tons of media attention while similar deaths are given no attention at all. An actor commits suicide and its in the news cycle for weeks; a military vet with PTSD commits suicide about once an hour in this country and its just another stat in an ever growing national crisis. There’s nothing more or less tragic about Fernandez dying in an accident; its just that he was a larger than life figure thanks to his unique occupation. Like other baseball players who have died suddenly (Nick Adenhart or Cory Lidle recently, Thurman Munson from my youth for example), its hard to separate the tragedy from the celebrity.

My thoughts are with his family, and I’m saddened that such a vibrant exciting player who clearly had an elan for the game is taken so soon.

Wow, what a treat! I’ve been kind of slacking in the content department and suddenly our favorite beat writer Bill Ladson pops out an unexpected mid-September mailbag. So here’s something to argue about this weekend.

As always, here’s how I would have answered his questions.

Q: Who do you think is the most pleasant surprise on the Nationals this year

A: Trea Turner without a doubt. We knew he was going to be good, but I don’t think anyone knew he was going to be *this* good. Keith Law in his chat yesterday pointed out a fun little fact about Trea Turner: he’s got a (now) 3.0 bWAR this year, which would rank him (unadjusted for position) as the 6th best ever for either the Rays or the Padres, the two teams that passed along Turner (and Joe Ross) in that trade two years ago. What a steal. And despite his only playing 57 games this year you have to think he’s in the mix for NL Rookie of the Year. Corey Seager probably has it wrapped up, but a 2nd or 3rd place for Turner seems warranted.

Ladson said Stephen Drew, which I guess you could argue for … except that he’s a bench player who has missed a ton of time and isn’t a lock to make the post-season roster given his illness.

—-

Q: How far do you think the Nationals could go in the postseason?

A: Could? They could go all the way! In reality, I think the Stephen Strasburg injury really, really hurts them in their likely NLDS match up with Los Angeles. If the Nats rolled out Scherzer-Strasburg-Roark-Gonzalez versus the Dodgers’ Kershaw-Hill-Maeda-random 4th starter i’d feel pretty good about our chances in that series. Right now we’re basically auditioning pitchers for that 4th spot and Gonzalez has been shaky, and Los Angeles’ arms are daunting for a team that routinely gets shut down by starters from teams like Philadelphia and Atlanta. Right now, I think we lose a close NLDS series to Los Angeles.

Even if Strasburg was healthy, I think we’d really be hard-pressed to beat Chicago in a 7 game series either. We took 2 of 3 here, lost 4 out of 4 there this year (though as we’ve discussed here, that sweep wasn’t nearly as dominant as the press made it seem), but we still lost to them, and they’ve stayed at full strength basically the whole season. I don’t see how anyone beats the Cubs this year.

Ladson hedges his answer, saying he wants to see how the bullpen and offense go the rest of the way. Why is he worried about the bullpen? Isn’t it one of the best in the game? The Nats bullpen is #1 in baseball in ERA, #2 in Fip. What more do you want?

A: Nope. Strained Flexor Mass is usually a 30 day injury; he got hurt on 9/7/16. So at best t hat’s 10/7/16 … or basically at the end of the divisional series. But … where’s he going to rehab? There’s no more minor league games; i guess he could throw simulated or instructional league games. But more importantly, this is a notably conservative team medically, especially with Strasburg over the years and especially since they just committed $175M to him. No way do they rush him back from a serious injury just on the opportunity to make one post-season start. Ladson agrees.

A: (me shaking my head): who knows. Maybe because he’s the king of getting caught doing triple digits on the beltway? I’ve lived here all my life and can’t tell you how many times i’ve hit 100 on the interstates around here without getting caught. Ladson says he calls Werth the king because he turned “clubhouse from unprofessional to first class.” Well, except for all of last year under Matt Williams … I guess even the King couldn’t salvage that dumpster fire.

A: Good power, good defense, bad hit tool. About what we expected; his plus defense and power this year have outweighed his strikeouts and his low batting average. He’s got a 1.8 bWAR and a 1.9 fWAR on the year, so its not like he’s totally useless out there. Its one of the reasons i’ve supported him and havn’t been completely ready to get rid of him; he’s ranked 15th among qualified Shortstops in fWAR this year. So that’s right in the middle; league average. I mean, if he had negative WAR, didn’t have power, or wasn’t a plus defender, I could see the huge rush to replace him. But moving him this coming off-season (as many want to of my readership) opens up another hole in Center that’s probably harder to fill right now than Short. Its why I suspect the team may just stand pat, keep Turner in center another year, and roll out basically the same lineup in 2017. Ladson gives him a “6.5 out of 7” and says he deserves the NL Gold Glove. I dunno about that; there’s 5 or 6 NL shortstops that probably rate better defensively than him.

—

Q: Was Murphy what you expected this season?

A: No way; Murphy a ton better than I expected. I was hoping for a solid 6th hitter, not a frigging MVP candidate. He earned his entire $37.5M contract this year. Ladson Agrees.

—

Q: What do you think of Dusty Baker as a manager? I know you often said Davey Johnson is the best manager you ever covered. Where does Baker rank as far as Nationals manager go?

A: I think Baker has done a fantastic job of calming this group, bringing some order, and not showing any of the faults that he was accused of in the past. He’s shifted, he’s managed the bullpen decently, he’s stuck to his guns and rested players, he’s communicated well, he hasn’t burned out starters. I think he’s ridden his primary catcher too hard … but then again, Ramos is having a career year and Lobaton is a huge step back offensively. Is he better than Davey? Not yet for me: lets see what happens when Baker has to deal with some injury issues or a better divisional rival. Ladson has them 1-2 with Davey still on top.

It could have been worse; it could have been this. Photo credit unknown.

Its been a greek tragedy the last few days in Nats town. Stephen Strasburg (you know, that guy who we just paid $175M for the next 30 years with deferred payments) clutches his elbow in his first game back after hitting the D/L for a different “elbow soreness” issue. Nats town fears the worst. MRI comes back and its “just” a Flexor Mass Strain. They say it isn’t going to be season ending but…

But we have some rather recent and close-to-home examples to use to gauge his D/L time out:

(h/t to Nationals101 on Twitter): Andrew Miller, who strained it in June 2015 against the Nats and missed about a month (injury on 6/10/15, next appearance 7/8/15).

So, best case he takes a couple of week off, it magically feels better, we shoot him up with cortisone and toradol (Hey they’re both legal!) and run merrily into the NLDS (not likely).

Worst case, he has to have a surgical procedure to clean stuff up and he’s ready for April 2017.

Most likely case, the conservative Nats management team shuts him down for the season (he is after all due $175M … and it’d be kind of foolish to risk that kind of investment for one playoff appearance) since it seems like its at least a month of rest.

In the mean time, the Nats have a playoff series to plan for. Now what do we do?

Scherzer, Roark, Gonzalez are all healthy and ready to go.

Who is the 4th starter? Instead of arguing about whether we take Joe Ross or Gio Gonzalez, are we now asking ourselves who makes that 4th start? Do we think Joe Ross is going to be ready? I dunno; I certainly hope so but we’re out of minor league games for him to rehab in and I havn’t heard much about his progress. Assuming Ross isn’t ready to go either … Are we to the point where we’re wondering who is better, Yusmeiro Petit, A.J. Cole, Reynaldo Lopez or Lucas Giolito?

Pros/Cons of these options:

Petit: was brought in to be the spot starter so he should be able to handle this. But he’s been a bit shakey lately; his ERA has risen from 2.72 to 3.90 in just his last 8 appearances, which include a 5 run implosion against Colorado to blow a game the Nats had come back to tie late, an appearance in early August against Atlanta where he couldn’t record an out, and a bunch of other unclean appearances.

Cole: he has shown signs of life (looking awesome in New York against our closest rival) and then signs of ineptitude (giving up a 3-run homer to the only guy on the Phillies who could hurt him).

Lopez: great fastball … and great hittability.

Giolito: well, we don’t need to go into the pro- and anti-Giolito arguments, do we?

I dunno; who among that list are you thinking is best suited for it?

Are you thinking outside the box instead? Mat Latos? I dunno; do you think he’s ready to go? Would you think that to be a slap in the face of all the guys who busted their butts with this organization for years to have a post-season start opportunity given to a guy they signed off the street two months ago?

Me? I think you give the start to Lopez. I don’t trust Petit, Cole seems too hittable, and Giolito needs an off-season to get his mechanics (and his head) straight.

(post-publishing update; just saw this at NJ: we know it isn’t going to be Bronson Arroyo… who just couldn’t come back and likely faces the end of his career).

Giolito’s latest start does not inspire confidence. (Photo by John McDonnell / The Washington Post)

(note; i’m at the beach this week … so i’m putting this in as a placeholder for arguing, er I mean discussing).

From the comments section on last week’s post, clearly we’re not happy with the bullpen. And neither is Mike Rizzo, who caused an uproar amongst the 25 or so people on the planet who knew who Max Schrock was by flipping him for a guy whose name I won’t even try to spell. Our long man blew a comeback effort last weekend that i’m sure was not well appreciated amongst the vets on the team.

But this post is about the rotation. Are you worried yet? Scherzer and Roark might have hiccups here and there but they’ll be solid for the playoffs (and yes, at this point i’m assuming we’re in the playoffs). But is Strasburg going to make it back? Is Ross? Do we trust Gonzalez in a post-season rotation? Is the performance thus far of Giolito and Lopez just more cause for concern?

We’ve clearly seen some middle relief issues lately, despite nearly sweeping a 4-game set in Atlanta this past weekend. And one of the issues we’ve been continually discussing is our left-handed relief options.

We traded Felipe Rivero. Oliver Perez has a 5.61 ERA. Sammy Solis just had an MRI on his left shoulder. Matt Grace has nice looking AAA numbers, but got shellacked last year (2.00 whip in 26 innings) during a brief call-up. Nick Lee was so ineffective this year that he passed completely through waivers when we DFA’d him off the 40-man. We just paid cash for twice-TJ survivor and ex Nat Sean Burnett, whose AAA numbers look good but is now on his fourth organization of 2016.

Do we have a LOOGY problem?

Well, maybe.

I constantly have to remind myself of this sentence: “You don’t have to be left-handed in order to get lefties out.” That and this sentence: “If your lefty splits are good … then you’re still a good LOOGY option.”

Here’s the 2016 versus lefty splits for every reliever on our 40-man, RHP or LHP. And then lets add in some of the call-up candidates just for fun… (all numbers as of 8/21/16’s Atlanta game via baseball-reference.com):

Right Handed reliever options

Melancon: .202/.253/.274 for an .527 OPS; as you’d expect, an elite closer gets both lefties and righties out.

Treinen: .211/.357/.351 for an .708 OPS. Not bad.

Kelley: .250/.294/.609 for an .903 OPS. Not good.

Petit: .261/.327/.511 for an .838 OPS. Again, not really that good, but then again that’s not what we’re asking him to do generally.

Belisle: .150/.203/.267 for an .470 OPS. Wow; that’s better than any of our lefties.

Glover: minimal stats in MLB; for 2016 he had a .161 BAA in AAA, .250 in AA and .143 in High-A for lefty splits (which are kind of hard to come by at milb.com). That looks promising, but he seems to be more effective against righties.

Left Handed reliever options

Perez: .217/.321/.377 for an .698 OPS. Its his rightly split that’s killing him.

Solis: .200/.279/.273 for an .551 OPS. Awesome … if we can get him back healthy.

Sean Burnett: Again, minor league splits are harder to come by, but Burnett had a .150 BAA against in 12 IP in his longest AAA stint of the year.

Bryan Harper: .161 BAA in AAA this year, even better .091 while in AA. And it’d be cool to have him on a roster with his brother. But he’s on the D/L right now.

Matt Grace: .207 BAA in AAA this year … but as noted above he struggled in his 2015 audition.

Rivero, by the way, has this for a lefty split in 2016: .325/.424/.429 for an .852 OPS. A .325 BAA; no wonder they were willing to part with him. He was a lefty who couldn’t get lefties out.

What if we thought outside the box a bit?

Reynaldo Lopez: .180/.250/.340 for an .590 OPS. Interesting; we’ve already talked at length about Lopez being a fire-baller out of the pen for a post-season team and his lefty splits are good.

Lucas Gioilto: .269/.406/.462 for an .868 OPS; not nearly as impressive.

Aaron Laffey: just a .254 BAA in AAA this year in a swing-man role.

Nick Lee: the aforementioned struggling lefty is the only other lefty in the minors above High-A; he’s got a decent .214 BAA against lefties in AA … but his overall ERA/Whip is ugly; 4.73 and 1.77,

I didn’t go to High-A, where we have a couple of lefty prospects but they’re no where near consideration for a call-up.

So, we need Solis back; he’s the closest thing we have to a matchup lefty who we can count on. But clearly Belisle’s numbers make him a matchup option too, despite his being a rightly. It reminds me of when we had Tyler Clippard, who always had stellar lefty splits. Perez’s split line isn’t great; I feel like we should be pushing him almost all the way to the mop-up/Petit role right now.

Are you concerned though? On a whole, the Nats bullpen has been one of the best in all of baseball. Are the falterings lately just due to a too many innings thanks to a couple of bad starter outings?

Clearly the team is trusting Lopez more than Giolito; are all the pundits wrong? Photo via wp.com/Mitchell Layton getty images

So, I’ll start off by saying this is absolutely a “short sample size” post. Reynaldo Lopez now has a grand total of four MLB starts (and just 4 AAA starts) and uber prospect Lucas Giolito himself now has the same number of total starts above AA as Lopez (3 in MLB, 5 for Syracuse). But after last night’s dominant performance in Atlanta (7ip, 4 hits, 11 Ks and 1 walk in 101 pitches), I’ll ask the question that a lot of commenters have already been saying here: are we looking at the wrong guy as the next Ace in waiting from our farm system?

Here’s what’s striking me about Lopez; check out his Pitch FX data from last night’s start. He threw 68 fastballs with an *average* velocity of 97.6mph, peaking at 99.5mph. Yes he tired a bit in the last couple of innings, but (per the graph of his pitch velocity at the BrooksBaseball link) he only “slowed” to the 96-97 range … his overall heat earlier in the game kept his average well into the 97mph range. That’s a very, very impressive velocity neighborhood, one where only two or three starters are living right now (amongst qualified starters … only Noah Snydergaard has kept a higher average fastball velocity this year than 97.6). But I also watched him absolutely blow balls by hitters; the most impressive of which was a 98mph fastball right by Atlanta’s best hitter Freddie Freeman to get a punch-out.

We’re not seeing that kind of velocity out of Giolito. And we didn’t see this kind of performance either.

Literally every scouting analyst out there thinks Giolito is “the best pitching prospect in the game.” Now, they’re not exactly light on Lopez; Lopez is routinely in the top 50 of all prospects in the minors, and generally listed #2 behind Giolito and Trea Turner on the 2016 lists. So it isn’t as if nobody knows who Lopez is. But results on the field at the MLB level in 2016 are hard to beat when it comes to doing comparisons.

Yes Atlanta is an awful team so perhaps over-reacting to 11 Ks is something to temper. And both guys are clearly up-and-down (Lopez’ last AAA start was 5 runs in 6ip; Giolito’s last AAA start was 10Ks and 1 run in 7ip). Two of Giolito’s three MLB starts were against the defending NL champ Mets (not exactly a pushover team offensively) while two of Lopez’s four MLB starts were against the trying-to-lose Mets (who might be starting one out-field player who would start on most other teams right now).

But what are you guys thinking? I mean, clearly to me Lopez is staying in the rotation until he falters, so it may be a moot point for Giolito anyway (who is quickly running out of innings in 2016; he’s sitting at 117 1/3 right now, which is almost precisely what he threw in 2015, so factoring in a 20% increase he may only have 4 more starts in him). Does Lopez have innings limit concerns too? He’s never even thrown 100 innings and is already well past that in 2016…). In fact, are we looking at an imminent shutdown of *both* prospects in the next couple of weeks?

I know how some of you are going to react to this post … cough cough MartyC and forensicane cough cough. But how about the rest of you? Is this heresy? Is this a changing of the guard-type opinion? Or is this just all SSS-driven nonsense that’ll be thrown out the window when Lopez gets pounded the next time he faces a half-way decent offensive lineup?

Rumors started getting published early saturday morning: embattled, demoted and struggling former Nats closer Jonathan Papelbon has reportedly asked for his release.

He’s appeared in precisely two games since he was replaced as closer by the newly acquired Mark Melancon. Both appearances can be generously characterized as “mop up duty.” He’s gone from highest leverage closer to 8th guy in an 8-man pen in less than two weeks, and it seems he’s reading the tea leaves.

The Nats need a move today to call up their starter Reynaldo Lopez; could a DFA or release of Papelbon be the solution?

We’ve talked in this space about playoff rosters a bit, about how we all are kind of thinking we could use Koda Glover on that roster. Well, when we dump the 5th starter and expand the bullpen to 8 … not having to worry about Papelbon’s reaction could be a benefit. I’d gladly take this bullpen construction into a short series:

Closer: Melancon

8th inning guys: Treinen, Kelley

7th inning guys: Belisle, Glover

Lefties: Perez, Solis

Long-man: Petit

That looks strong enough to me. If Papelbon was still in the picture, you’d face a tough decision on who to drop. Belisle has more than earned his spot, and there’s nobody else in that list who can really make way thanks to the trade of Rivero.

Thoughts? Is this a blessing in disguise (if its true?) Or do you think we should hang on to him and give him a Qualifying Offer? (sarcasm).

Chapman fetches the Cubs #1 prospect in Torres (he immediately becomes the Yankees’ #1 prospect) in addition to a more marginal (but still ranked) prospect in McKinney, a lottery ticket in Crawford AND the return of their former 8th inning guy Warren. This in return for perhaps the premier closer in the game for a 2 month rental.

Melancon fetched a solid, young lefty reliever in Rivero (whose peripherals counter his currently poor-looking 2016 ERA) plus a 2nd tier ranked prospect in Hearn who is probably 3 years away. This in return for 2 months of an elite but not quite as dominant closer.

Miller fetched the Indians #1, #5, #30th ranked prospects in the Cleveland organization (including two 1st round picks) plus an org-arm. This in return for one of the best relievers in the game for this year plus two more years at a relatively reasonable price ($9M/per).

Projected WAR for these three guys (using opportunistic estimates based on historical performance);

Chapman: Domestic Violence suspension earlier this year. $4.33M of salary due this year.

Melancon: Salary relief provided by Pittsburgh (not sure how much, but believed to be all of his 2016 salary)

Miller: no salary relief.

Which deal do you like the most? Miller clearly got the most in terms of value, but he also was the best positioned for the long haul. But even at best case, Miller’s only going to return 5 and a half war over the next 3 years for Cleveland; that’s about as much bWAR as Anthony Rendon provided in his first big breakout season. Chapman cost much, much more than Melancon; is he worth that much more?

I hate to sound like a homer, but for what they sought and what they gave up, I completely prefer the Nats deal here. We gave up none of our top tier of prospects, we didn’t take on cash, and we got precisely what we wanted (closer coverage for 2016) and nothing more. Keith Law hated the deal of course, but he covets prospects and hates closers so it is no surprise. I also kind of thought that Mike Rizzo would have learned his lesson after the Papelbon-Drew Storen nightmare (remember; he’s the same GM who flipped 2 months of a FA acquisition Matt Capps for years of Wilson Ramos.