World Peace or World War III?

Just about 40 hours ago, on the blood-stained battlegrounds of Eastern Ukraine, a new cease-fire officially went into effect.

All of Europe heaved a deep sigh of relief at the prospect of peace. The world rejoiced. And global investors sprang into action:

They stopped dumping the euro and began snubbing the dollar.

They slammed the breaks on their race to safety, made a quick about-face, and marched back toward their favorite speculative hang-outs — European and Asian stocks … oil and commodities … high-yield bonds … even Russian stocks and the Russian ruble.

They assumed — or at least harbored the hope — that the worst of the conflict between the East and West was over.

Are they right?

Yes, the new cease-fire will probably provide a temporary respite.

And yes, for the time being, investors will dump the dollar … rush back into the euro … buy beaten-down stocks … jump into hot commodities … explore emerging markets … and resume the hunt for all the popular “risk” investments they can lay their hands on.

But if you think this is the beginning of the end of East-West conflicts, think again.

Sure, if you’re looking down at this scene from the perspective of the main West European signers of the cease-fire — Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, French President François Hollande, or German chancellor Angela Merkel — it might be politically convenient for you to say it’s the best exit door from the conflict.

But if you’re Russian President Vladimir Putin, you see an entirely different scene:

You see the Ukrainian cease-fire as little more than one more tactical victory in a well-planned, protracted chess match against the West.

You know that you still have all your pawns and power pieces on the board. You know you still have the Western kings cornered. And most important, unlike them, you have never once taken the military option off the table.

Fiona Hill, formerly America’s top intelligence officer on Russia, clearly agrees that’s the underlying reality that pervades every battle and every summit. Quoted last week under the New York Times headline “In Ukraine, It’s Putin’s Game,” she points out that “he plays on multiple fronts. We start talking about a military response, and he starts talking about diplomacy.”

Moreover, she predicts that any new cease-fire accord will only be temporary — just like the one inked in Minsk last September.

Why? Precisely because Mr. Putin constantly shifts between diplomatic and military options, depending on which he believes will give Russia the greatest tactical advantage at any given time.

Most Western analysts know this. What’s worse, in Russia, nearly all citizens are proud of it.

They’re proud Putin is in control. They love the image of their leader running circles around the West. And this sentiment runs a lot deeper — with far greater consequences — than Poroshenko, Hollande, Merkel or Obama seem to understand. In fact …

Many Russians now firmly believe Obama and the West
are plotting to launch World War III against them!

Sounds far-fetched and off the deep end, right? For most of us in the West, of course.

But for millions of Russian citizens, not only is it a believable scenario, it’s an outright forecast documented by a large body of “objective facts” and supported by a wide range of “respected international experts.”

To fully understand this sentiment and its potential impact, let me take you on a virtual tour to Moscow — to talk to people on the street, visit some friends and see the conflict through their eyes.

You will be shocked by their world view — not only because it’s so contrary to what we know, but also because it’s framed in such an apparently rational manner, making it so believable in their eyes.

Moscow, February 2015

We join the crowds strolling down the picturesque Arbat Street.

Even though it’s only a couple of hours past noon, the sun seems like it’s already setting in the West. But the sky is clear and the weather is an unseasonably warm 2 degrees Celsius.

A few young men mill about, making snide remarks, telling jokes. One of the most popular goes something like this:

“Napoleon wanted to win Russia, but was defeated because he couldn’t stand Russian cold in winter. Russia winter has saved the country several times, and now it has decided to attack Boston, New York and Washington — even BEFORE they attack us.”

We stop in a cheap store. Even though it’s the second week of February, all sorts of Putin T-shirts are flying off the shelf. One champions Putin as a rock star. In another, Putin gives a thumbs up sign, saying “All OK!” A third proudly portrays him as the leader of the Russian “EMPIRE.”

But we’re not here to buy T-shirts. Instead, our friends invite us up for tea, piroshki, and some TV newscasts.

It’s not a long metro ride to their flat. So we catch a train from the Smolenskaya station. And we overhear a young woman talking with great conviction:

“Ever since I was a child,” she says, “I have always been afraid of Americans. In the movies, I saw how they killed Native Americans, and I feared that they would come to my house and kick me out. My childhood intuition was right — Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Ukraine … somebody needs to stop these advocates of ‘democracy’ armed with heavy weapons!”

We aren’t terribly surprised. But we are curious: Are these views just anecdotal or do they actually represent the majority opinion?

As we zoom ahead in the dark subway tunnel, our youngest host whips out her iPhone, googles Levada-Center (a non-government, non-partisan polling organization), and rattles off a series of survey stats.

One year ago, she reports, the anti-American sentiment in Russia was bad enough — 44% of respondents had a negative view of the United States.

Just ten months later, it surged to 74%. Now it’s at 81%, and rising.
Amazing. It’s one of the fastest doubling of anti-American sentiment in any major industrial nation in history.

We walk into our friends’ sprawling Soviet-era apartment complex, and we hear the TV droning through the windows of first-floor residents. So when we get upstairs, we ask them to tune in to the same station.

It’s an increasingly popular media portal by the name of Zvezda. A roundtable of well-known military and political experts are debating “THE war.”

They don’t all agree on the details. But the scenario they paint has only one outcome …

World War III

Here’s how they see events unfolding …

Breakdown of Ceasefire: It all begins with a crumbling of the just-announced cease-fire in Ukraine. And, they hasten to add, most Western analysts agree. The reasons, they say, are obvious:

The so-called “peace accord” does nothing to end the terrible hardships suffered by the Russian-speaking population in Eastern Ukraine.

The Western powers still want Ukraine to stay under its orbit.

The leaders in Kiev still view the rebels as a bunch of bandits and their friends in Russia as a band of ruthless invaders.

American and Western Europeans, they say, may pose as advocates of democracy, but in reality, seek nothing but economic dominance. And as soon as that economic dominance is threatened, they act with military force.

“Don’t believe me?” one military expert asks rhetorically. “Then, just read America’s own press reports in Forbes and the Wall Street Journal.”

Already, “Obama is leaning over the cliff called “arms for Ukraine,” goes the argument. So when the cease-fire ends, both his allies and opponents in the U.S. Congress push him over the brink.

Even the leaders of Germany and France, formerly vehemently opposed to the idea, egg him on.

“Soon,” the Russian talking heads predict, “a new Vietnam-type war bursts onto the scene” — but with some critical differences from that decade-long Cold-War conflict of the 20th Century:

Unlike Vietnam, Ukraine borders Russia. It is historically, geographically, and strategically far more important to Moscow than Hanoi ever was.

Unlike Vietnam, where Russia supported the North almost exclusively with weapons and money, in this war, Russia sends tens of thousands of troops into battle; and this time, they go with no pretense of denying the invasion.

Unlike Vietnam, where the U.S. fought almost entirely on its own (with only token troops contributed by Asian allies), this time, America’s European NATO allies have no choice but to jump into the war with full force.

Russia’s immediate strategic goal: To recreate Novorossiya or New Russia.

It is a new Moscow-allied “independent” country stretching from the Russian borders all the way to what is now the Western border of Ukraine with Moldova. (See map, circa 1897.)

Suddenly, Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea is blocked. Suddenly, Ukraine is transformed into a land-locked country. And almost immediately, the Ukrainian economy is destroyed, forcing the West to accept a massive default on its billions in loans disbursed so far.

Russia, despite any of its own financial problems, steps in as “the savior.” Putin’s troops march triumphantly into Kiev. And they restore a Moscow-friendly government to power.

Rapid-fire events: From that point forward, the World War III script unfolds in a series of rapid-fire events.

ISIS sees the distraction of the world powers as an opportune opening, jumps into the fray, and launches a series of attacks on European soil. Terrorists based in the Caucuses attack in Russia’s biggest cities.

NATO and Russia hit back hard. But they also use the terrorist attacks as an excuse to escalate the East-West war.

Not likely tomorrow or next month. But analysts on both sides of the East-West divide seem to agree that it could happen over time.

Among them, the only big disagreement seems to be who is to blame. In Russia, they say Obama is the source of all evil. In the U.S., we say it’s Putin.

But the blame game won’t make much of a difference. All that matters is that, at some point in the not-too-distant future, the trends we saw last year are bound to resume:

Escalating global conflicts, wars and revolutions. A tsunami of overseas money flooding to U.S. shores. A massive shift to the highest quality, safest investments in the world. A surging U.S. dollar and falling euro.

Plus many more repercussions that are too long to list with brevity or impossible to predict with precision.

My advice: Prudently take advantage of the counter-trends while they last. Enjoy the profits in stocks and the speculative opportunities in other assets.

But never forget the winds of war and their likely consequences.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recesssion and Depression.

{13 comments }

Doug W.Monday, February 16, 2015 at 2:30 pm

What a load of miss-info.. We know that the U.S. is the total cause of the problems with any country that doesn’t bow to our never ending wars of peace all over the globe.

williamSaturday, February 21, 2015 at 11:32 am

$5BILLION taxpayers wealth spent instigating Ukraine holocaust,even stooping to snipers,all DOCUMENTED.
STUXNET created and released by US/Israel.
ISISrael spreading the Demons for HADES.
This “empire” has a huge KARMIC debt to pay.

HowardMonday, February 16, 2015 at 10:42 pm

Hi Martin

Some time ago the world learnt that peace with Russia required a border of safety net smaller states. This all changed some months ago and now we are looking for a solution. If we want peace we have to fight for a win/win solution. No one wants a full blown conflict except the arms industries. We need smarter people than we have, to stand up to them. The hope is to keep domestic confrontation at a local regional level.

G.S.BreenSaturday, February 21, 2015 at 6:58 pm

Hi Howard,
Please transpose …..no one wants a full blown conflict etc …..from …”the arms industry” to ….”The bankers ” because that’s where it starts and that’s where the money ends up !!

Robert M.Saturday, February 21, 2015 at 9:01 am

Good morning Martin,

Is it true that the United States and perhaps other western nations convinced Ukrainian rulers to give up nuclear weapons left there by departing USSR troops by assuring them protection against aggressors?

Robert M.

Brady HSaturday, February 21, 2015 at 9:03 am

Damn, why must mankind’s Egos always get in the way of World Peace? We were not Created to be All Gray Suits and Nothing More! We should all Play in Our Own Sand Box and Appreciate each others Concepts, there in Sharing diverse interests and Advancing Mankind not being Greedy or Selfish and driving every one back to the Stone Age?

So why did USA spend 5 billion to start the Ukraine uprising and cause this Ukraine mess? Why did USA cause the Libya mess or the Syria mess or the Iraq mess? What country has been in the most wars since WWII ? USA ? Didn’t the founding fathers want USA not to be involved in other countries problems? Either we are the bully or we are being manipulated to be the bully by some very powerful people.

mort GoodkinSaturday, February 21, 2015 at 12:47 pm

The question is–why did the USA HAVE TO intercede in Libya,Syria,Iraq, etc.In one case for oil-granted, in the others to try and help someone. When it comes to oil we have a sophisticated group of controlling schmucks in the country who will use any method they can to protect their dominance and investments, no matter what it costs our country in men or money–as long as they come out okay.

judy wrightSaturday, February 21, 2015 at 2:43 pm

we have always come to help. liberals will close their eyes to ajudywrightcid pits for dipping people . burning people chopping heads off.liberals attack easy targets to feel tough christians.they wont kill you. we need to bring the draft back and watch the cowards run. mayor ruty has oboma pegged

used to be a liberalSaturday, February 21, 2015 at 4:34 pm

Human conflict has been with us since humans have existed. This is nothing new. It is almost no different then gang warfare, just larger gangs, and a few laws to make conflict acceptable. Personally, I see Ukraine, as yet another diversion from the bigger picture, whether these diversions are intentional or not, they serve a purpose in that they tend to keep most people occupied in their own little worlds, and unfocused. Just as prior to the out break of World War 2, there were world wide conflicts, diversions intentional or not, and the proverbial blame game, the he said she said thing, was prevalent, just as now. There was even a baby version of Political Correctness when it came to the Germans and Germany, just as there is now with Muslims and Islam, only P C is not a baby anymore, and it’s effect/affect is far more dangerous.
Prior to, and just after Hitler came to power, there were two factions of the Nazi Party, both had the same ideology, the same out look, the same goal[s]. Rhome ran the “Brown Shirts” who did all the “dirty” work. Hitler had the S S. Hitler won out, then had Rhome eliminated, and absorbed the Brown Shirts. [Islamic Shitties, and Sunnies,] [spelling intended] keep them in mind. So now Hitler was in power. Many European, American, Canadian, and British politicians, industrialists, business owners, and people in general thought that Hitler was the greatest thing since sliced bread, to name a few prominent Americans, Rockefeller, Rothschild, Bush, Kennedy, and good old Henry Ford. Henry received a medal from Hitler who personally pinned that medal on him, for bringing the assembly line to Germany. Many thought that Hitler had some wonderful ideas, keep in mind that he was seen as progressive, anti-communist, and of course he was the leader of the National Socialist Democratic Party of Germany, so he must be a good guy. Hitler broke every rule, policy, sanction, [keep Iran in mind], basically told everyone to go to hell. People began to wake up to this, but when anything was said, they were sure to say Nazis, and not Germans. Today, we say, terrorists, radicles, give them names, Isis, al kaida, Hamas, or whatever is convenient and of course politically correct, but officials will not say Muslims or Islam. Does this scenario sound a bit familiar, if not it should. Neville Chamberlain, just about Obama’s equivalent. Winston Churchill who tried to warn everyone about the Nazi movement was called every name under the sun, and was laughed at and ridiculed. There are many Churchills today, but none hold political office.
So, here we are today, will there be a world war, yes absolutely, but not like we think it will be. I believe it will be against Islam, and world wide, and here is why;
I think that in the 1980’s world leaders in non Islamic countries came to the realization of the Islamic threat, but how do you stop it, simple, you build up a visible viable enemy, and you have to turn the general populations against Islam. So you let them migrate to other countries, then let them loose. Give them enough rope to hang themselves. You also have to take out those Muslim leaders who are pro western, and who keep the “Soldiers of Islam” at bay.
Bush 1 becomes president, talks about “New World Order” but is not clear, and is very vague. So Saddam gives him an excuse, and the game is on. Clinton comes to power, carries on the Agenda, fires a rocket through Khadafy Duck’s tent. Then Bush 2 takes the reigns, finishes off Saddam, enters Afghanistan, sets up a buffer zone between Iraq and Iran, and a buffer zone between Pakistan, and Afghanistan, but keeps the troops limited as to what actions they can really take. On the home front Bush initiates all sorts of security programs, many are not liked, let alone appreciated. Now comes the messiah, the Obama, the anointed one. Anointed for what? What is this clown up too, he seems to be all over the place. Obama is one of many things, or perhaps he is all of these things. A puppet, naïve, stupid, cunning, inept, unsure, a Muslim sympathizer, just what the hell is he, no one knows for sure, so take your pick, or think of something. So what does Obama do, he enhances all of Bush 2’s programs, but he handcuffs the troops. Then out of nowhere comes Arab Spring. Can you honestly sit there and believe that this was spontaneous, that it was about freedom and democracy, if you do then you belong on Obama’s ship of fools. Arab Spring was planned then executed by western intelligence agencies, nothing else makes any sense, especially if you followed what happened after that. Khadafy Duck was taken out, then Assad was attacked, Mubarak was removed from power, via Obama and company. Keep in mind that these three, and Saddam had kept the Soldiers of Islam at bay for how many years?? Obama installs Morsi in Egypt. Morsi is Muslim Brotherhood, with major ties to Iran. Assad puts up one hell of a fight, and still is. Putin backs him, tells Obama to take a rest, as Russia and China don’t want a bunch of insane Muslims running around. Meanwhile, the people of Egypt rise up, 20 million hit the streets, demand that this guy Morsi be removed, they don’t want Sharia Law, they don’t want the Muslim Brotherhood. Obama has a hissy fit. Obama’s sanctions on Iran are virtuously meaningless, and they carry on their nuke program, and whatever else that they are up to. The setting up of all Islam being placed under the Black Flag of Islam, headed by Iran continues, but Assad, and Egypt are a stick in that wheel. Add to that all the flip flopping that Obama does, some of which poke Islam in the eye with a stick, has got to make anyone wonder if he is losing it. The Saudis drop the price of oil to seemingly punish Iran, but at the same time they hope to stop U S production, and Obama is on board with that. Everything seems to be inside out and up side down. Now Obama wants to bring in a few hundred thousand from Syria. It seems that he is intentionally trying to anger the American people by letting more Muslims into the country. Then too, there are other issues that he has used to divide the people too.
It would seem that Obama is either intentionally or unintentionally creating an anti-Muslim backlash, just as there is going on now in Germany, France, England, Spain, Italy, Canada, and many more non Islamic countries. Remember, “give them enough rope to hang themselves and they will” The Pope reached out to Islam, other countries have tried to accommodate, others have bent over backwards for these people, but nothing is never enough. We have not yet set-up a visible, viable enemy, but it is coming, and it is coming fast. Who ever is the next president will have the Honor of taking out Islam. This I think will happen between 2018 and 2020, no later then 2020, and it will be world wide. There will be more then enough justification, along with a clear conscious, as we will be able to say we tried to reach out. Russia and China will come on board against Islam, when the middle east is invaded, Russia, and China will not leave. The middle east will never be the same again. The Islamic threat will be gone, they will be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21 century. Welcome to the New World Oder.

redwolf1Sunday, February 22, 2015 at 12:49 am

Judy, at one point in your scenario you do make a good point , but in other part’s,” your so far off it ant funny. Israel is the biggest a front to would peace since before Hitler in WW 2 . she is mean conning ruthless and hungry for Arab blood so she can finely take over the hole of the Middle East and it’s resorses. They will have the ability to enslave the Palestinian’s because there Arab brother’s will be on the run no thanks too our support of ISIS and our country’s meddling in favor of Israel. Now that we have a huge foot print in the Middle East, and G W’s arming them with every think but the kitchen sink it made Israel to big to fail. Now,” with the help of our Country, and ISIS can now defeat the Arab’s, exterminate the Palestinian’s, and with out so much of a peep from the world power’s. Yes! I agree there will be WW 3, and there target will be the American people because we are the corner stone of freedom and righteousness. The Israeli’s with out saying so much as a word are fighting for world domination. YES! would domination. They want to be the dominate power in the Middle East and of the world of tomorrow and beyond. They are sitting quietly by and letting the U S do all there fighting for them, and in the end we will be there ultimate pray, and target of choice. They will finely with our help take complete control of the Middle east. Holding this country and the world hostage to the oil we so desperately need to survive. . Then China and Russia, and other nation’s will fall right in behind them along with nato. Making us look helpless and weak in the eye’;s of the world. This will be the ultimate stage for WW 3. We will all meet in the Megdeo. Where we will fight the ultimate battle to end all battle’s. It will be a WAR for the power to enslave the human race. You see it is all about MONEY! and every one know’s it,but can’t do anything about it so we do there bidding and go to war and die because they say we should die. Yes they tell us it’s all about freedom and democracy, but do we really live in a Democratic country NOT! I’m afraid Democracy as we knew it is now irrelevant in our country today. Just ask the voter’s who supported Gore. ask the people who told G W not to invade Iraq. We all know that it was the power’s that be who gave him the green light to invade Iraq not the people because we all know the people didn’t vote for G W Bush they voted for Gore. In the long run we will all lose this struggle because we are the new slaves of the 21 century, and our lives and our children’s live’s don’t mean diddly swatch in there eye’s . All, we are is Cannon fodder for there ultimate fight to rule the world by what ever mean’s necessary as long as it doesn’t include them. We can argue about this till the cow’s come home, but if this country doesn’t wake up we will all be doomed. Just keep an eagle eye out for the mushroom Cloud and It’s not coming from the Muslim side of the argument because they will be to weak and frail to put up much of a fight after we get through with them. Just like I said,” keep your eye’s open to the Middle East. You will be very much surprised to were those Missile’s will be coming from . Let’s remember that it was the British who were losing WW 2 when they offered the Jew’s Palestine in place of there help to defeat Germany. The Jew’s were never on the side of the British they were on Hitler’s side. even the Jew’s form the U S A were for Hitler, and they fell for him all the way until they were offered a home land in Palestine. Then it was all bet’s off for Germany, and for Hitler that’s when Hitler decided to kill the trader’s to his country. So he put them in interment camp’s or work camp’s . Then the U S and Briton joined forces and ended all food shipment’s to Germany were by starving the people of Germany because Hitler rather then feed his people would make sure his troop’s were well fed, and then Hitler would think to him self,” Who cares about a bunch of trader’s in those’s camps let them starve. and the ones that don’t die of starvation let’s exterminate the rest of them. .

redwolf1Sunday, February 22, 2015 at 1:23 am

If those people who died in those trade center’s were alive today they would never have given the green light to that Monster to invade Iraq and kill all those innocent people in the name of power and money. In spite of what they told you and meany people like you we never gave G W the power to go to war. It was some of our repetitiveness , and the U N that gave him the power. . Imagine the nerve on them to say that it was the majority of the American people who were the deciding factor to go to war against Iraq. What a slap in the face to every American in this country. Sure we were pissed off about the attacks on the center’s but not to invade a sovereign country that we all knew had nothing to do with those attack’s Theses men who committed those attack’s weren’t Muslim fanatic’s or extremist’s they were modern type hit men working for a foreign power to committed an atrocity like a pearl harbor in this country in order to get the U S involved in the \Middle East.

kenoThursday, February 26, 2015 at 9:05 pm

sounds like hand pulling the strings on both sides is setting the stage for the new everything, an orwellian hunger games kind of a world.