12 May 2014

An independent Scotland's representation in Europe

It seems to be Euro-election obsession season on the blog this week. Just a shorter thought for today, I promise. As we were discussing yesterday, on the 22nd of May, a small slice of the Scottish electorate will go to the polls to select the region's six members of the European Parliament.

Europhile Nationalists frequently make the point that for our size, Scotland is actually underrepresented in the European Union assembly. Our Danish friends, for example - estimated population, around 5,600,000 - send thirteen MEPs to the European Parliament: more than double our number. An independent Scotland in Europe could aspire to similar levels of representation.

But who would we send? On twitter, Owen David Griffiths asked how the 2009 European election would have shaken out, if Scotland had sent its full compliment of parliamentarians to Brussels instead of the depleted band we enjoy under the Union. That's an irresistible question for the committed bore like me. For simplicity, let's assume that an independent Scotland keeps a single, national constituency for European elections. By my reckoning, an independent Scotland would have despatched 5 SNP, 3 Labour, 2 Tories, 2 Liberal Democrats and a solitary Green across the channel in 2009 to attend to our interests. (Applying d'Hondt is a lengthy business here. Click on the image below for a clearer snapshot).

Even having more than doubled the number of seats available, the United Kingdom Independence Party (no doubt by this time to be rechristened the "Little Scotlandlander Party") wouldn't get a look in. But that's counterfactual history. How might the current European election pan out on current polling, if we were electing thirteen MEPs instead of six later this month? Running the numbers through the usual process, the SNP would make considerable gains - and the Liberal Democrat George Lyon would have attended the MEP leavers' party in vain. (Again, click through for a clearer look at the allocation).

On these numbers, all six of the SNP's European candidates would be elected (+1 on 2009), joined by four Labour MEPs (also +1). The Liberal Democrats and the Tories would hold onto one representative apiece (both -1), the Greens would also lose their solitary European seat, while UKIP's 10% would gain them one. Congratulations, David Coburn. Enjoy a refreshing biertje and a bucket of moules frites on us.

Here ends the wildly speculative Euro election nerdery. Given the drookit spring weather we're enjoying at the moment, you'll be glad of that anorak, I assure you.

10 comments
:

This is why UKIP should support independence for Scotland - they'd get an MEP seat. And if Farage were to flip into the Yes column this would massively increase Yes's representation on Question Time. Nigel: have a think about it.

Interesting. I guess that we relatively small swings, we could get to a situation where the SNP would actually be entitled to seven MEPs. What would happen then if the SNP has only put up six candidates?

Many thanks for a more comprehensive answer than I deserved! It seems churlish to point out that I am missing an S in Griffiths…

Of course this can only ever be interesting, rather than indicative of anything. Especially since, I assume, potential Green or Ukip voters may well be encouraged to vote for their preferred parties rather than lending their votes to one of the bigger players if they know that their man or woman has a chance at one of seats 7-13.

It's a good point Owen. The impulse towards tactical voting must be fired to a significant extent by the limited seats available. Much less reason to connive, if you have a better chance of seeing your first preference candidate enthroned.

This isn't as academic a question as it appears. Its conventional for acceding members to send appointed observers in advance, and for those observers to be converted into full voting members for the duration of that parliament from the date of accession. Will Team Scotland send an additional 6 (or 7) members, and use the current election candidates as their list? UKIP might get their Scottish member yet.

For 2019, its more likely, we would only have 11 or 12 seats, as a rebalance of seat numbers for each country is currently carried out each term to bring the total number of parliamentarians back to 751. There is nothing stopping Scotland breaking itself down into three or four constituencies and sending three or four members from each, so the Scottish UKIP observer/MEP is only going to be for a half and half term.

Unless the EU takes on any other member states (either through internal or external enlargement) before 2019, we're only talking about cutting seven seats from the entire parliament (or perhaps eight or nine if the rUK manage to increase their number of seats a bit). This is much less than one seat per country, so I cannot see how Scotland's representation could be cut to 11 MEPs -- surely it will be either 12 or 13.

Interestingly, if the rUK decides to leave in 2017, the departure of their 67 MEPs would presumably allow all other EU countries to send slightly more representatives to Brussels/Strasbourg to keep the number of MEPs at 751.

Another interesting point, Guy. Just another one of the potential EU transition issues I really ought to brush up on. I imagine re-regionalising MEPs would find a good deal of support, not least in that it would tend to favour the bigger parties...

So long as we retain our place in the EU, which won't be as straight forward as its being made out to be. Spain has already spoken out against an independent Scotland being part of the EU, and could Scotland cope with being cast aside from not only Great Britain but also the EU?

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