Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 12, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Cult*

canceled

0.35

90210

canceled

0.49

Emily Owens, M.D.*

canceled

0.54

Nikita (F)

renewed

0.55

Gossip Girl*

final season complete

0.61

The Carrie Diaries*

renewed

0.73

Hart Of Dixie

renewed

0.88

Beauty And The Beast

renewed

0.92

Supernatural

renewed

1.52

Arrow

renewed

1.58

Vampire Diaries

renewed

1.87

–The cancellation bear went 9-1 on his CW predictions over the course of the 2012-13 season. (vs. 7-3 in the 2011-12 season)

But that one miss, the prediction that The Carrie Diaries would be canceled, was the biggest missed call of the season for the bear. It was the only show not a “toss up” at the end of the season, and the bear only gave it a 10% chance of renewal. The bear may ponder the reasons why that happened over the summer. Aw, who’s he kidding, he’s just going to sleep.

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2012-13 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

–
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Outside of ABC, which hasn’t announced any renewals or cancellations as of this writing (5p ET, May 9) there’s only a handful of shows left to be decided. Look for that handful plus all of the ABC announcements by late Friday. I probably won’t update the list again until either very late Friday or early Saturday so be sure to check out our home page.

suckit @tvbythenumbers :)(You guys tortured me on CHUCK for years… but I still love ya)

One thing that won’t change between now and then is our biggest prediction miss: The Carrie Diaries. Our congratulations to Josh Schwartz and the rest of The Carrie Diaries team. Some will say “you missed Whitney” and we may yet miss a couple of ABC shows – but those misses are like a flyout to center field. The Carrie Diaries was more like a swing and a miss where you swing so hard that when you miss you fall down in the batter’s box and look silly.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/broadcast/list-of-renewedcanceled-broadcast-scripted-shows-from-2012-13-season-so-far/feed/0stevebaronWhitney - Season 2Bubble Watch: Will The Olympics Have NBC Back In Bed With ‘Community’ and ‘Whitney?’http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-will-the-olympics-have-nbc-back-in-bed-with-community-and-whitney/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-will-the-olympics-have-nbc-back-in-bed-with-community-and-whitney/#respondSun, 05 May 2013 15:43:59 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=181038

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Last Bubble Watch of the 2012-13 Season

If history holds, we’ll know all renewals and cancellations from the 2012-13 season by the end of next Friday, May 10, so by next Sunday nothing will be on the bubble.

Not much new this week, but Family Tools debuted on the list with cancellation predicted. So what of the 7 shows remaining on the bubble? Here’s an early glimpse at some of my “Oddsmakers” picks for Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel posts where Bill & I will give our “percentage of renewal” chances picks for all shows not already renewed or canceled (not just bubble shows). My percentages for the bubble shows could change (dramatically) between then and now.

Body of Proof: I’m leaning towards renewal (55%).

How to Live With Your Parents: not a lot of ratings history to make a pick, and it’s ratings are in the “could go either way” band. A true toss-up! But, 50% in oddsmakers is cowardly, so leaning towards cancellation (45% chance of renewal).

Malibu Country: If ABC sticks with a Friday comedy block, it definitely has a shot, but even then I’m leaning towards cancellation (40% chance of renewal).

Rules of Engagement: Unlike the others, this one isn’t a true toss-up based on ratings. But its ratings have been good enough where wheeling and dealing (Sony is involved in the show’s production) to keep the show around as schedule spackle didn’t seem completely ridiculous. But I’m more than leaning towards cancellation (33% chance of renewal).

Community: Of all the NBC comedy bubble shows, I like Community’s chances the least. I’m still leaning towards renewal (55%)

Whitney: More than leaning towards renewal. (75%).

Go On: Even more more than leaning towards renewal than Whitney(85%)

Speaking of NBC’s bubble comedies…

The text below comes from long-time reader Tom Shaw who has thought a lot about renewals, cancellations and scheduling needs. Tom was the person who coined the phrase “schedule spackle” in the comments way back when, so another piece this week involving, you guessed it, schedule spackle. Tom thinks about things much more from a scheduling perspective than I do. I haven’t spent any time thinking about what NBC will stick on Fridays next season. Tom has!

Will The Winter Olympics Give Whitney Another Shot?

NBC has a major project for this upcoming season: Rebuilding their comedies. With The Office finished, NBC only has one comedy with the numbers to (barely) warrant renewal: Parks & Recreation. Add the new Michael J Fox show (with 22 episodes), and that still leaves probably two more new shows in Fall (and possibly two more in Spring as well).

Complicating matters is the 2014 Winter Olympics. Running from February 6th to February 23rd, it provides NBC with a platform to launch new comedies on February 27th, but also a problem: they have to come up with shows to cover until January 30th, itself the first day of the February 2014 sweeps.

Let’s say NBC starts The Voice on September 9th (and why not, given how well it worked out this year). That means we’ll probably see NBC’s comedies premiere on September 19th. That gives NBC 20 weeks it has to cover until the Olympics. Even assuming NBC takes weeks off for Thanksgiving, Holiday specials, New Year’s, etc., that’s well over 13 weeks. I find it unlikely NBC keeps an Animal Practice-level flop on the air until the Olympics.

Or to summarize, NBC will be launching more Thursday comedies than ever before, will have every reason to delay starting new comedies until February, and will need extra episodes to cover until the Olympics. That’s the perfect recipe for spackle in bulk. I expect NBC to again schedule an hour of comedy spackle on Fridays.

Now, which shows? That’s the difficult question. I expect at least three shows to get spackle orders. In order of likelihood, by my estimation:

Go On – Produced by Universal, NBC may want to give it another shot.

Whitney – Produced by Universal, held up okay in various time slots.

New Normal – Not produced by Universal, and the numbers have dropped to “ugly even for NBC”. However, NBC may want to give it another chance, may see some value in keeping Ryan Murphy happy, and may want to demonstrate to showrunners that NBC will give their shows every chance. (If there are any “political” considerations, they are positive.)

Community – Yes, it could use 4 more episodes for domestic syndication. However, it already has a cable deal, there are no showrunners NBC wants to keep happy, and numbers have dropped down to nothing special. (I also still wonder if Sony/Comedy Central won’t go the Futurama route and give it a made-for-DVD wrap up movie they can chop up into 4 episodes.)

1600 Penn / Guys With Kids – Admittedly only given one chance, but the numbers are bad and there no showrunners NBC will want to keep happy (Fallon should already be covered with The Tonight Show).

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Lots of drama renewals from NBC and a couple from CW on Friday. A few quick items and then a piece on the merits of schedule spackle from long-time reader and smart guy Tom Shaw who might be taking over Bubble Watch next season.

Beauty and the Beast renewed!

Though I put Beauty and the Beast back on the bubble last week, and might have upgraded it again this week had it not already been renewed, I did have it as a likely cancellation for a month. For the week or two of that period where The Carrie Diaries hadn’t been moved to predicted cancellation I’m fine with that choice. The other few weeks though, the many of you who were in the “they’ll cancel one of those shows, but not both!” camp had it right!

Hannibal

What’s ailing Hannibalgoes beyond the NFL Draft. I was going to wait until next Sunday, May 5 which will be the last Bubble Watch of the season (because before Sunday, May 12 rolls around we should know all the renewals and cancellations) to downgrade Hannibal, but why wait? If it jumps 30% to a 1.3 next week, I’ll move it back to the bubble.

Nikita

Some are making something out of CW announcing the renewals of Beauty and the Beast and Hart of Dixie but not Nikita. At least for now, I’m making nothing of it. Abysmal ratings are nothing new for Nikita, and if the CW has ridden out its lousy ratings this long to drag it along to the necessary episodes for stripped syndication I’ll be very surprised if it’s not given at least a partial order. A Nikitacancellation after three seasons would definitely be the biggest surprise of the season for me.

The Neighbors & How To Live with Your Parents

I’ve put How to Live with Your Parents back on the bubble and still like The Neighbors chances better. If I’m wrong about that, I’ll be surprised, but still not nearly as surprised as if the CW doesn’t renew Nikita!

The text below comes from long-time reader Tom Shaw who has thought a lot about renewals, cancellations and scheduling needs. Tom was the person who coined the phrase “schedule spackle” in the comments way back when, so it’s appropriate to introduce Tom with a piece on schedule spackle. Tom thinks about things much more from a scheduling perspective than I do. I haven’t spent any time thinking about what Fox will stick on Fridays next season. Tom has!

Spackle Detail: The Silver Lining for Body of Proof?

By Tom Shaw

As we head into the renewal announcements, the one category the internet as a whole tends to whiff on are the “spackle” candidates. A quick refresher:

Every Fall, networks try new shows. Some of those new shows will fail so badly they need to be yanked off the air.

Something needs to air in their place. Networks have learned the hard way that trying to promote and launch a new show over one to two weeks in that same slot rarely works.
The best option networks have is to fill in those holes with “spackle” – pre-existing shows with established audiences (even if those audiences are smaller than average) that networks can drop into those slots with little promotion. Procedurals and broader comedies work best.

Over the last few years, most networks have learned to have their cake and eat it too by scheduling their spackle options on Friday. Those premieres are usually delayed 2-4 weeks to give the networks time to evaluate the new shows. This allows the networks to have a replacement show ready if a new show fails, while also avoiding eating $20+ Million on a spackle order that sits on the shelf until Summer if the new shows succeed.

So what sort of spackle options does each network have?

ABC

Drama: Only Castleand… Body of Proof really fit the mold. While Castlehas sunk this year, there’s been no indication ABC will pull it off the Fall schedule, leaving Body Of Proof as ABC’s only option. I now expect a renewal for Body Of Proof.

Comedy: Suburgatory, The Neighbors, and How to Live… could all be fighting for spackle spots on Friday. Unless ABC hates their comedy pilots and expands to two hours on Friday, I think Malibu Country is dead and Last Man Standing depends on pilots.

CBS: Renewals all but finished.

Drama: The Mentalist and probably The Good Wifeare Friday bound, as already syndicated shows nearing the end of their runs. The Mentalistin particular is prime procedural spackle, and I am waiting to see Friday numbers before declaring next season its last.

Comedy: CBS has quite a few comedy pilots with prestige names to fill only one slot. A sign of CBS expanding comedy to two hours on Thursday, or will CBS hold Mike & Molly(hitting 88 episodes this year, owned by WB) for spackle in case new shows tank (or both)?

CW: Renewals are all but finished.

Drama: CW has now picked up their spackle options in Heart Of Dixie & Beauty And The Beast. I expect one to be initially scheduled on Friday in Spring.

FOX: Renewals are finished.

Comedy: I expect Raising Hope and probably Mindy Project to start the season out on Fridays @ 8, to cover any failed comedies on Tuesday.

Drama: Unless Fox somehow can move Gleeor Bonesto Friday — itself all but requiring Fox to stick with the semi-disastrous Four Comedy Tuesdays)– the only real options they have are to a) Schedule a new show for Friday and hope it both succeeds there and transfers, and/or b) Move the likely Friday comedy spackle block to cover a failed drama. Neither sounds wise in the short run, so I expect Fox to sit on any failed drama (a la Mob Doctor this season) until The Following and whichever drama gets the Super Bowl premiere can start.

NBC

Drama: Unless Law & Order: SVU starts on Friday (itself unlikely because of comedy spackle), the only spackle option is Grimm, which NBC has only used in emergencies. That said, I expect The Voice’shalo to prop up any struggling new dramas until NBC can launch replacements after the Olympics.

Comedy: The biggest mystery left this Spring. NBC has one comedy with ratings arguably worthy of continuing (Parks & Rec) and too much time to fill. I expect NBC to go with two hours on Thursday and one hour of Friday comedy spackle – and NBC gives Go On, New Normal, Whitney, and Communityspackle orders with so many unproven Thursday shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

GleeRenewed: shame on you if that surprises you

I’m not a Glee viewer so I have no skin in the game. If you don’t like it and you want it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s fine. But if you expect it to be canceled because you don’t like it, that’s kinda nuts. Who cares if Glee’s ratings are a shadow of their former self? Glee still has above average ratings for Fox and shows with above average ratings almost always get renewed.

“Why renew it for two seasons? It’s ratings are above average now, but they will be below average the season after next!” That it made financial sense to Fox to renew it for two seasons is a good enough generalization for me. Beyond that, while we don’t fiddle with adults 18-34 ratings for purposes of prognosticating (it doesn’t change the predictions, so why complicate things?) it’s an important subset of adults 18-49. Glee’s 18-49 ratings are above average and its adults 18-34 (and women 18-34) ratings even more so.

Translation: don’t be too surprised if Gleestill has a higher 30 second spot cost than Person of Interest when Ad Age’s annual estimates come out next fall.

The Neighbors Still Likely to Be Renewed

Bill downgraded The Neighbors in last Tuesday’s Renew/Cancel Indexdue to the relative comparison between post-March 1 ratings for The Neighbors and How to Live with Your Parents.

No ding on How to Live with Your Parents performance (and I’ve upgraded it) I just don’t think it’s a case where using those two shows’ absolute ratings as a yardstick against each other is the way to go. Considering everything –even post-March 1 performance, where among other factors, three out of four of The Neighbors episodes aired after repeats of The Middle and four out of four did not air after Modern Family— I still have the shows even.

The Neighbors has something else going for it – ABC has an ownership stake. How to Live with Your Parents is a Fox production.

Body of Proof Upgraded to the Bubble

Assuming Body of Proof has settled in at ratings that won’t deteriorate further, it will end the season with a little bit better index than it had last year. Given last year’s renewal, that makes it at least a bubble show. I won’t be surprised if it’s canceled, but after last year how could I be surprised if it’s renewed?

Hannibal Still on the Bubble

Hannibal got off to a promising start (at least on NBC) and actually went higher in its 2nd episode. But its 3rd episode fell 18% to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. Even if it merely stabilizes from here, I still think it probably scrapes out a renewal. Another 18% drop though and it’s in Deception territory with a possible “yeah, but NOTHING works for NBC Thursday’s at 10pm!” played on fan excuse bingo cards, and hey, it can actually fall another 18% and still be ahead of last year’s Awake!

Yep, I upgraded Beauty and the Beast back to the Bubble

I tried to talk myself into it with conventional wisdom last week but didn’t quite get there.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

Show

Network

Status

666 Park Avenue

ABC

Canceled

Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23

ABC

Canceled

Last Resort

ABC

Canceled

Private Practice

ABC

Final Season Finished

Zero Hour

ABC

Canceled

Made in Jersey

CBS

Canceled

Partners

CBS

Canceled

90210

CW

Canceled/Final Season

Cult

CW

Canceled

Emily Owens, M.D.

CW

Canceled

Gossip Girl

CW

Final Season Finished

Ben and Kate

Fox

Canceled

Fringe

Fox

Final Season Finished

The Mob Doctor

Fox

Canceled

30 Rock

NBC

Final Season Finished

Animal Practice

NBC

Canceled

Do No Harm

NBC

Canceled

Office, The

NBC

Final Season

Smash

NBC

Canceled

tvbythenumbers.com

Red Widow

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Happy Endings

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

CSI: NY

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Golden Boy

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Vegas

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Carrie Diaries, The

CW

Cancellation Predicted

Cleveland Show, The

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

Touch

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

1600 Penn

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Guys with Kids

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Up All Night

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Deception

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

The New Normal

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

tvbythenumbers.com

Body of Proof

ABC

On The Bubble

Malibu Country

ABC

On The Bubble

Rules of Engagement

CBS

On The Bubble

Beauty and the Beast

CW

On The Bubble

Community

NBC

On The Bubble

Go On

NBC

On The Bubble

Hannibal

NBC

On The Bubble

Whitney

NBC

On The Bubble

tvbythenumbers.com

Castle

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Revenge

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Suburgatory

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

Renewal Predicted

How to Live with Your Parents…

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Last Man Standing

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Middle, The

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Modern Family

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Nashville

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Neighbors, The

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Once Upon a Time

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Scandal

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Criminal Minds

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Two and a Half Men

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Hart of Dixie

CW

Renewal Predicted

Nikita

CW

Renewal Predicted

Law & Order: SVU

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Parks & Recreation

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Chicago Fire

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Grimm

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Parenthood

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Revolution

NBC

Renewal Predicted

2 Broke Girls

CBS

Renewed

Big Bang Theory, The

CBS

Renewed

Blue Bloods

CBS

Renewed

CSI

CBS

Renewed

Elementary

CBS

Renewed

Good Wife, The

CBS

Renewed

Hawaii Five-0

CBS

Renewed

How I Met Your Mother

CBS

Renewed

Mentalist, The

CBS

Renewed

Mike & Molly

CBS

Renewed

NCIS

CBS

Renewed

NCIS: Los Angeles

CBS

Renewed

Person of Interest

CBS

Renewed

Arrow

CW

Renewed

Supernatural

CW

Renewed

Vampire Diaries, The

CW

Renewed

American Dad

Fox

Renewed

Bob’s Burgers

Fox

Renewed

Bones

Fox

Renewed

Family Guy

Fox

Renewed

Following, The

Fox

Renewed

Glee

Fox

Renewed

Mindy Project, The

Fox

Renewed

New Girl

Fox

Renewed

Raising Hope

Fox

Renewed

The Simpsons

Fox

Renewed

tvbythenumbers.com

—

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-uncertainty-for-hannibal-glee-for-2-the-neighbors-likely-to-be-renewed-body-of-proof/feed/0stevebaronHannibalBubble Watch: ‘Beauty and the Beast:’ Will It Be Canceled or Will It Be Renewed?http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-beauty-and-the-beast-will-it-be-canceled-or-will-it-be-renewed/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-beauty-and-the-beast-will-it-be-canceled-or-will-it-be-renewed/#respondSun, 14 Apr 2013 16:21:16 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=177705

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Other than Cultgetting canceled (who didn’t see that coming?) no changes to the table below this week.

Will Convention Save Beauty and the Beast?

When it comes to Beauty and the Beast, Bill thinks it’s likely to be renewed and I think it’s likely to be canceled. For us, that’s a wide discrepancy this late in the season. Even last year when we disagreed on the fates of The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie in our final guesses, we both had both shows on the bubble/toss-ups for renewal heading into those guesses.

Bill outlines three reasons for the renewal prediction for Beauty and the Beast, but it’s only one of them –past scheduling history– that’s the crux of the disagreement. Even within that reasoning, there’s only one part of it where we disagree:

1. CW can’t cancel both The Carrie Diariesand Beauty and the Beast without breaking (at least a little) from past scheduling history
2. It’s more likely they will renew one of them than break with past history
3. If one has to be renewed, it’s Beauty and the Beast.

It’s a reasonable position, that may be the correct one. The first item above is a fact and if I agreed with the second item above (I don’t), I would certainly agree with the third.

I assume the CW will renew five of its scripted shows and Bill assumes 6. Whether it’s five or six the list of things that the CW absolutely can’t do in its fall schedule announcement is short: I don’t think it can announce an hour (or hours) of scheduled repeats.*

Would an hour or two of unscripted on CW’s fall schedule surprise me? Nope. Five hours of veterans with three hours of new scripted and two hours of unscripted has been done before (as recently as fall 2011**).

Would four new scripted shows launched in the fall surprise me? Yes, but only a little. We’re talking 4 vs. the normal 3. It’s a difference, but it’s not a big difference particularly if CW stays with its staggered schedule approach where most season premieres don’t happen in the same week anyway. Plus this year the CW loses two shows (90210 and Gossip Girl) that had four or more seasons. That’s the first time that’s happened since I’ve been following things closely From the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-12 season CW either lost no shows that were at least four years old or lost only one.

*It’s fine if the CW winds up with an hour or two of scheduled repeats after the season starts, that almost always happens. It’s only announcing them in advance that never happens.

**Fall of 2011 launched with only five veterans, but a sixth was renewed (One Tree Hill) and held for mid-season. Fall had two hours of unscripted on the schedule announcement America’s Next Top Model and (the quickly canceled and replaced with schedule repeats) H8R.

Prognosis Negative: Presumption of future ratings

If renewed, Beauty and the Beast will no longer air after The Vampire Diaries. From there it’s reasonable to assume the ratings will go down and quite likely to The Carrie Diaries levels or worse. Whether you’re CW, CBS or an ad buyer, that’s the reasonable assumption. I assume CW, CBS and the ad buyers will all make exactly that assumption.

So why do that? There are things to consider from economics to appearances of stability. But in thinking those through, I still don’t see it getting renewed unless the ratings start going up when it returns this Thursday.

It’s not quite the same as last year’s situation with The Secret Circle and Hart of Dixie where Hart of Dixie could make a much better either/or case. I understand looking at it and thinking “it’s the same either/or choice as last year, only this year the Thursday show will win out!”

Last year it was reasonable for CW to assume Hart of Dixie’s future ratings would be stable if renewed and and that The Secret Circle’s would go down. The landscape is nearly identical between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast with the big exception that The Carrie Diaries isn’t a reasonable option with its ratings as low as they are. But because Beauty and the Beastwill be moved if renewed it’s probably going to wind up with ratings that are at the level of The Carrie Diariesanyway.

If you’re in the “but they have to pick one of them!” camp, Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed. I’m not in that camp this year. Is the CW? We only have to wait about a month to find out.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

Show

Network

Status

666 Park Avenue

ABC

Canceled

Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23

ABC

Canceled

Last Resort

ABC

Canceled

Private Practice

ABC

Final Season Finished

Zero Hour

ABC

Canceled

Made in Jersey

CBS

Canceled

Partners

CBS

Canceled

90210

CW

Canceled/Final Season

Cult

CW

Canceled/Final Season

Emily Owens, M.D.

CW

Canceled

Gossip Girl

CW

Final Season Finished

Ben and Kate

Fox

Canceled

Fringe

Fox

Final Season Finished

The Mob Doctor

Fox

Canceled

30 Rock

NBC

Final Season Finished

Animal Practice

NBC

Canceled

Do No Harm

NBC

Canceled

Office, The

NBC

Final Season

Smash

NBC

Canceled

tvbythenumbers.com

Red Widow

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Body of Proof

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Happy Endings

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

CSI: NY

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Golden Boy

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Vegas

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Beauty and the Beast

CW

Cancellation Predicted

Carrie Diaries, The

CW

Cancellation Predicted

Cleveland Show, The

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

Touch

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

1600 Penn

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Guys with Kids

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Up All Night

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Deception

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

The New Normal

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

tvbythenumbers.com

How to Live with Your Parents…

ABC

On The Bubble

Malibu Country

ABC

On The Bubble

Rules of Engagement

CBS

On The Bubble

Community

NBC

On The Bubble

Go On

NBC

On The Bubble

Hannibal

NBC

On The Bubble

Whitney

NBC

On The Bubble

tvbythenumbers.com

Castle

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Neighbors, The

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Revenge

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Suburgatory

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Last Man Standing

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Middle, The

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Modern Family

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Nashville

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Once Upon a Time

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Scandal

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Criminal Minds

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Two and a Half Men

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Hart of Dixie

CW

Renewal Predicted

Nikita

CW

Renewal Predicted

Glee

Fox

Renewal Predicted

Law & Order: SVU

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Parks & Recreation

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Chicago Fire

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Grimm

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Parenthood

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Revolution

NBC

Renewal Predicted

2 Broke Girls

CBS

Renewed

Big Bang Theory, The

CBS

Renewed

Blue Bloods

CBS

Renewed

CSI

CBS

Renewed

Elementary

CBS

Renewed

Good Wife, The

CBS

Renewed

Hawaii Five-0

CBS

Renewed

How I Met Your Mother

CBS

Renewed

Mentalist, The

CBS

Renewed

Mike & Molly

CBS

Renewed

NCIS

CBS

Renewed

NCIS: Los Angeles

CBS

Renewed

Person of Interest

CBS

Renewed

Arrow

CW

Renewed

Supernatural

CW

Renewed

Vampire Diaries, The

CW

Renewed

American Dad

Fox

Renewed

Bob’s Burgers

Fox

Renewed

Bones

Fox

Renewed

Family Guy

Fox

Renewed

Following, The

Fox

Renewed

Mindy Project, The

Fox

Renewed

New Girl

Fox

Renewed

Raising Hope

Fox

Renewed

The Simpsons

Fox

Renewed

—

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-beauty-and-the-beast-will-it-be-canceled-or-will-it-be-renewed/feed/0stevebaronHeart of DarknessBubble Watch: ‘Vegas’ Craps Out on Friday; ‘Go On’ Still on the Bubble + ‘How To Live With Your Parents’ and ‘Hannibal’http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-vegas-craps-out-on-friday-go-on-still-on-the-bubble-how-to-live-with-your-parents-and-hannibal/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-vegas-craps-out-on-friday-go-on-still-on-the-bubble-how-to-live-with-your-parents-and-hannibal/#respondSun, 07 Apr 2013 16:38:31 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=176840

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Vegas

The writing was etched fairly deeply into the wall when CBS announced Vegaswas moving to Fridays. But like gamblers hoping to get on a hot streak and win back what they’ve lost, many fans held out hope that Vegaswould get hot enough on Fridays to keep itself in the renewal discussion. In TV ratings, as in gambling ” ‘hope’ ain’t nothin’ but a four letter word.”

Vegascame in third with adults 18-49 in the preliminary ratings for Friday, trailing both Shark Tank and Grimmby wide margins. That it came in ahead of Touchand had the most total viewers in the hour are no consolation, at least not in terms of Vegas‘ renewal prospects.

Go On & The New Normal

I’d hoped that the return of The Voice might clear things up a little bit with regard to Go On. There’s a case to be made that it did, and that Go Onshould just be moved to “likely cancellation.” I may do that yet, but for now it’s still a bubble show. For a brief period it looked like a might have to instead upgrade The New Normal to the bubble since its preliminary ratings in the direct afterglow of The Voicewere as good as Go On‘s. But The New Normalwas adjusted down in the finals and it aired after a telecast of The Voice that performed four-tenths better with adults 18-49 than the one that led into Go On a week earlier.

How To Live with Your Parents & Hannibal

How to Live with Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) got off to a good start after Modern Family on Wednesday and Hannibalhad a so-so debut on Thursday. For now, I have them both on the bubble pending at least another week of data. It’s not uncommon for shows to premiere well out of Modern Family only to quickly fade.

Someone asked me if I thought NBC would cut Hannibal some slack since NBC has had so many recent woes Thursdays at 10pm. Short answer: not if it falls to a 0.9 adults 18-49 rating. If it stabilizes at around a 1.2-1.3, I’ll probably cut it a little bit more slack than I did for Deception on Mondays and at least keep it on the bubble.

Body of Proof & Nashville

At least in theory those who said that I should have bumped Nashvilledown to the bubble and upgraded Body of Proof to the bubble last week shouldn’t have any problems that I still have Nashvilleas a renewal and Body of Proofas a likely cancellation this week. Let’s see how it works out in practice!

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Another Network Will Have to Save Happy Endings

Happy Ending’s fate on ABC has been sealed for a while. I’m not basing that on one Friday’s worth of preliminary ratings (and it was Good Friday to boot) but rather that ABC had already shipped it off to Friday. At that point I wasn’t sure ABC would take the show even if Sony offered it to them for $0.00, and that doesn’t seem likely. Consider that ABC owned the similarly ratings-challenged Cougar Town and still shipped it off to TBS. ABC doesn’t own Happy Endings, so its pretty clear they’re done with it.

Will another network pick it up? I don’t know. I never like those odds, but nor can they be ruled out. While Sony isn’t likely to give the show away for nothing, there is a history to suggest it is sometimes willing to do deep discounts. With regard to syndication proximity, Happy Endings is in a worse position than Cougar Town was last year, but not dramatically worse (Happy Endings will end the current season with 57 episodes, Cougar Town had 61 after its last season on ABC.)

CBS Renews Pretty Much Everything Except Criminal Minds and Two and a Half Men

CBS announced the renewal of several shows including The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Notably absent from the announcement were Criminal Minds and Two and Half Men which we predict (and are still predicting) will be renewed. Though I have removed the “likely” and “certain” distinctions in the table below, both shows are still certain renewals. Chalk it up to contract negotiations in the case of Criminal Minds and both contract negotiations and licensing negotiations in the case of Two and a Half Men.

The Carrie Diaries Downgraded to Likely Cancellation; “Beauty and the Beast” Still a Likely Cancellation

I’ve downgraded The Carrie Diariesto likely cancellation so now have both it and Beauty and the Beast as likely cancellations. I still favor “Carrie” ever so slightly but that’s only because if CW renews Beauty and the Beast it will land somewhere else on the schedule than Thursday at 9pm and its ratings can be expected to fall.

I don’t expect any announcement for either show until the upfronts in May. The above predictions could still change several times between now and then!

Nashville & Body of Proof

Yes, I noticed that Body of Proof is recently out-rating Nashville. For now, that alone doesn’t sway me to change the predictions for either. But that could change very soon. Besides, the “bubble” section in the table below is looking pretty sparse now.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
–

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Last Man Standing & Malibu Country

I’ve upgraded Last Man Standing to likely renewal, and Malibu Country to the bubble. Last Man Standing has done well enough that it’s more likely to be renewed than canceled. The unknown is whether keeps the Friday comedy block around anchored by Last Man Standing, or uses it as schedule spackle for other nights. If ABC keeps the Friday block, Malibu Country is a tossup for renewal, if it doesn’t keep it, it’s likely to be canceled.

Beauty and the Beast & The Carrie Diaries

Bill and I remain in disagreement about which is on the bubble and which is likely to be canceled. A small uptick for Beauty and the Beast on Thursday didn’t sway me. With the women 18-34 that both shows presumably target, The Carrie Diariesstill had the edge last week despite Beauty and the Beast having the fairly wide percentage lead with adults 18-49. Beauty and the Beast still has the much more favorable adults 18-49 lead in (last week a 1.3 vs. a 0.7 for The Carrie Diaries).

I don’t love the ratings for either show and if I wasn’t at least a little uncertain about how many shows CW can afford to cancel, I would probably have them both as likely cancellations. I may still by the end of the season.

How Could You Not Upgrade ‘The Good Wife’ to Likely Renewal After the Syndication Deal!?

Often shows are sold into syndication before they have enough episodes for stripped Monday-Friday syndication (as with Hawaii Five-0, NCIS: LA and Castle) with the buyers being on the hook for future seasons. Because it took The Good Wife so long to come up with a syndication deal, they already had four seasons (including the current season). In the case of The Good Wife Amazon and Hallmark are already on the hook for the current season, but it doesn’t appear they’re locked into any future seasons. Still, I can’t see not upgrading the prediction to renewal by the end of the season.

CBS won’t have much time if it really wants to figure out if the streaming effect that seems to have benefit other serialized shows will help shows like The Good Wife. However, while I’m sure CBS would love some data about that, I’m not sure how much they’ll find out.

While much is made of the streaming effect for serialized shows, so far “streaming effect” is mostly synonymous with “Netflix Streaming Effect” (Sons of Anarchy, Breaking Bad, Mad Men, etc) , much is not made about the fact that we don’t really know much about Amazon Prime subscribers because Amazon doesn’t disclose that information. We don’t know how many there are. Estimates range from 5 million to 10 million subscribers to the $79/yr. service primarily known for its two-day shipping. How many of them besides me ever stream any of the “included in Prime” programming. Whatever the math, it works out to a number much smaller than Netflix which reported 27M streaming customers in the U.S. at the end of 2012.

How Could You Not Downgrade ‘The Neighbors’?!

To answer the question above: simple, I ignore the ratings for episodes that are sandwiched into otherwise all-repeat lineups.

To answer the follow-up question of “doesn’t it tell you something that ABC has sandwiched it into an lineups that are otherwise all repeats?” Nope, it doesn’t tell me that. Maybe ABC just wanted to protect it from the more daylight-y version of Daylight Saving Time. Or maybe they just wanted to shelter it from the inevitable “disappearing ratings” stories in late April. Mostly It tells me ABC has still more stuff it needed to sandwich in.

I’m not saying there aren’t reasonable cases to be made that it should be downgraded to the bubble, only that so far I am not swayed by those cases.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show

Network

Status

666 Park Avenue

ABC

Canceled

Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23

ABC

Canceled

Last Resort

ABC

Canceled

Private Practice

ABC

Final Season Finished

Zero Hour

ABC

Canceled

Made in Jersey

CBS

Canceled

Partners

CBS

Canceled

90210

CW

Canceled/Final Season

Emily Owens, M.D.

CW

Canceled

Gossip Girl

CW

Final Season Finished

Ben and Kate

Fox

Canceled

Fringe

Fox

Final Season Finished

The Mob Doctor

Fox

Canceled

30 Rock

NBC

Final Season Finished

Animal Practice

NBC

Canceled

Do No Harm

NBC

Canceled

Office, The

NBC

Final Season

Smash

NBC

Canceled

tvbythenumbers.com

Red Widow

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Body of Proof

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Happy Endings

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

CSI: NY

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Golden Boy

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Vegas

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Beauty and the Beast

CW

Cancellation Predicted

Cult

CW

Cancellation Predicted

Cleveland Show, The

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

Touch

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

1600 Penn

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Guys with Kids

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Up All Night

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Deception

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

The New Normal

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

tvbythenumbers.com

Malibu Country

ABC

On The Bubble

Good Wife, The

CBS

On The Bubble

Mentalist, The

CBS

On The Bubble

Rules of Engagement

CBS

On The Bubble

Carrie Diaries, The

CW

On The Bubble

Community

NBC

On The Bubble

Go On

NBC

On The Bubble

Whitney

NBC

On The Bubble

tvbythenumbers.com

Castle

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Neighbors, The

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Revenge

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Suburgatory

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Last Man Standing

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Middle, The

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Modern Family

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Nashville

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Once Upon a Time

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Scandal

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Elementary

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Hawaii Five-0

CBS

Renewal Predicted

2 Broke Girls

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Blue Bloods

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Criminal Minds

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Mike & Molly

CBS

Renewal Predicted

NCIS: Los Angeles

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Person of Interest

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Two and a Half Men

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Hart of Dixie

CW

Renewal Predicted

Nikita

CW

Renewal Predicted

Glee

Fox

Renewal Predicted

Law & Order: SVU

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Parks & Recreation

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Chicago Fire

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Grimm

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Parenthood

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Revolution

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Big Bang Theory, The

CBS

Renewed

CSI

CBS

Renewed

How I Met Your Mother

CBS

Renewed

NCIS

CBS

Renewed

Arrow

CW

Renewed

Supernatural

CW

Renewed

Vampire Diaries, The

CW

Renewed

American Dad

Fox

Renewed

Bob’s Burgers

Fox

Renewed

Bones

Fox

Renewed

Family Guy

Fox

Renewed

Following, The

Fox

Renewed

Mindy Project, The

Fox

Renewed

New Girl

Fox

Renewed

Raising Hope

Fox

Renewed

The Simpsons

Fox

Renewed

—

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-the-neighbors-hangs-on-last-man-standing-what-about-the-good-wife/feed/0stevebaronThe-Neighbors-Episode-14-The-Back-Nine-4-550x366Bubble Watch: Why ‘Last Man Standing’ Is Still On The Bubble & ‘Beauty and the Beast’ Is Likely to Be Canceled + Format Changehttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-why-last-man-standing-is-still-on-the-bubble-beauty-and-the-beast-is-likely-to-be-canceled-format-change/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-why-last-man-standing-is-still-on-the-bubble-beauty-and-the-beast-is-likely-to-be-canceled-format-change/#respondSun, 17 Mar 2013 16:42:01 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=173584

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Beauty and the Beast & The Carrie Diaries

I’ve downgraded Beauty and the Beast to likely cancellation. I’ve left The Carrie Diaries on the bubble, but it’s by the slimmest of margins and I was tempted to downgrade it too. I understand Bill’s and others’ thinking that if you’re not sure the CW would cancel both of those shows (or even either of them) due to need for shows on next season’s schedule, that relative to each other which one stays and which one goes definitely seems like a tossup. But while lead-in and retention are rarely a predictive factor in renewals, I think they matter in this case and in ways that aren’t favorable at all for Beauty and the Beast.

It’s true that The Carrie Diaries gets the lead-in from CW affiliates syndicated programming, but that’s not been nearly as good as the cover The Vampire Diaries provides Beauty and the Beast. And while with the better lead-in Beauty and the Beast has recently outperformed The Carrie Diarieswith adults 18-49, with the women 18-34 both shows presumably target, The Carrie Diaries is ahead in recent episodes.

I’m pretty sure CW will cancel one of the two. I’m not as certain that they will cancel both, but I still don’t love the chances for either show, I just like The Carrie Diaries a teeny tiny bit more. Even with the lament “but The Carrie Diaries doesn’t have to face off against Grey’s Anatomy and Beauty and the Beast does!” I still like Carrie’s prospects just a bit better.

At this point it doesn’t seem likely that I’ll upgrade Beauty and the Beast before the season ends, but the chances I’ll downgrade The Carrie Diariesto likely cancellation remain high.

Last Man Standing & Malibu Country

Along with many readers, Bill made a compelling case for upgrading Last Man Standing to likely renewal. I won’t be surprised by that outcome, but in a world where success possibly equals doing worsethan reruns of Shark Tank, and no recent history on ABC to use as a guideline (or recent history* with any Friday 30 minute sitcoms being renewed on any broadcast network) I still shrug my shoulders and think “I don’t know.” So I went the other way on this one, I left Last Man Standing on the bubble and downgraded the noticeably worse performer Malibu Countryto likely cancellation.

*If you think “Family Matters, Boy Meets World and others thrived on Friday!” counts as recent history I am defining “recent” much differently than you!

New Format

Shortly after posting last week’s Bubble Watch, I changed the table format to get rid of the distinction between likely and certain. For now, I’m sticking with the approach, though I have (hopefully) improved some of the terminology to be less confusing than what I used last week. Gone are the “likely” and “certain” distinctions. All that remains are “renewed” and “canceled” predictions. I still have grouped the shows that have already been canceled or renewed separately and have attempted to label things in such a way that it’s quite clear what’s already been decided and what are predictions. Update: I have changed the table to improve readability further based on a suggestion from commenter JulieDawn.

The new presentation format doesn’t mean all the renewal predictions are as likely as each other, or all the cancellation predictions. Of course I don’t think The Neighbors’chances* are as good as Modern Family’s. Same for Red Widow(a certain cancellation) and Malibu Country(a likely cancellation). Both appear the same on the table with a “canceled” prediction, but I don’t view their prospects the same. But I still think Modern Family & The Neighbors will be renewed and that Red Widow and Malibu Country will be canceled so despite levels of likelihood, I don’t think the distinctions matter much as far as the table goes. We’ll see.

*“The Neighbors barely did better on a Wednesday than Last Man Standing did on Friday, how can you not upgrade Last Man Standing!? At least you should downgrade The Neighbors!!!” If you’re one of those people, let’s just say that when ABC airs 5 programs on a Wednesday and four of them are repeats with The Neighbors being the only one that isn’t, I don’t make too much of the ratings.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I’ve upgraded Hart of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty and the Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty and the Beast hasn’t aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the BeastI give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart of Dixiewill be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it’s Hart of Dixieand that’s a pretty simple callconsidering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It’s a fact that with that Beauty and the Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle’s lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I’m not ignoring these questions, I just don’t think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn’t really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What’s not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn’t afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringerrepeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.) I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show

Network

Status

666 Park Avenue

ABC

Canceled

Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23

ABC

Canceled

Last Resort

ABC

Canceled

Zero Hour

ABC

Canceled

Made in Jersey

CBS

Canceled

Partners

CBS

Canceled

Emily Owens, M.D.

CW

Canceled

Ben and Kate

Fox

Canceled

The Mob Doctor

Fox

Canceled

Animal Practice

NBC

Canceled

Do No Harm

NBC

Canceled

Red Widow

ABC

Certain or likely cancellation

Cult

CW

Certain or likely cancellation

Touch

Fox

Certain or likely cancellation

1600 Penn

NBC

Certain or likely cancellation

Guys with Kids

NBC

Certain or likely cancellation

Up All Night

NBC

Certain or likely cancellation

Body of Proof

ABC

Certain or likely cancellation

Happy Endings

ABC

Certain or likely cancellation

CSI: NY

CBS

Certain or likely cancellation

Golden Boy

CBS

Certain or likely cancellation

Vegas

CBS

Certain or likely cancellation

Cleveland Show, The

Fox

Certain or likely cancellation

Deception

NBC

Certain or likely cancellation

The New Normal

NBC

Certain or likely cancellation

Smash

NBC

Certain or likely cancellation

Last Man Standing

ABC

On The Bubble

Malibu Country

ABC

On The Bubble

Good Wife, The

CBS

On The Bubble

Mentalist, The

CBS

On The Bubble

Rules of Engagement

CBS

On The Bubble

Beauty and the Beast

CW

On The Bubble

Carrie Diaries, The

CW

On The Bubble

Community

NBC

On The Bubble

Go On

NBC

On The Bubble

Whitney

NBC

On The Bubble

Castle

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Neighbors, The

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Revenge

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Suburgatory

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Elementary

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Hawaii Five-0

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Hart of Dixie

CW

Certain or likely renewal

Nikita

CW

Certain or likely renewal

Law & Order: SVU

NBC

Certain or likely renewal

Parks & Recreation

NBC

Certain or likely renewal

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Middle, The

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Modern Family

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Nashville

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Once Upon a Time

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

Scandal

ABC

Certain or likely renewal

2 Broke Girls

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Blue Bloods

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Criminal Minds

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

CSI

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Mike & Molly

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

NCIS: Los Angeles

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Person of Interest

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Two and a Half Men

CBS

Certain or likely renewal

Glee

Fox

Certain or likely renewal

Chicago Fire

NBC

Certain or likely renewal

Grimm

NBC

Certain or likely renewal

Parenthood

NBC

Certain or likely renewal

Revolution

NBC

Certain or likely renewal

Big Bang Theory, The

CBS

Renewed

How I Met Your Mother

CBS

Renewed

NCIS

CBS

Renewed

Arrow

CW

Renewed

Supernatural

CW

Renewed

Vampire Diaries, The

CW

Renewed

American Dad

Fox

Renewed

Bob’s Burgers

Fox

Renewed

Bones

Fox

Renewed

Family Guy

Fox

Renewed

Following, The

Fox

Renewed

Mindy Project, The

Fox

Renewed

New Girl

Fox

Renewed

Raising Hope

Fox

Renewed

The Simpsons

Fox

Renewed

Private Practice

ABC

Final Season Finished

Gossip Girl

CW

Final Season Finished

90210

CW

Canceled/Final Season

Fringe

Fox

Final Season Finished

30 Rock

NBC

Final Season Finished

The Office

NBC

Final Season

—

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