Industry dynamics

The second half of the normal export regression

The general administration of customs has released in the first half of this year our country foreign trade import and export situation.According to customs statistics, 1-June $1.35488 trillion worth of import and export of our country, than last year the corresponding period (the same below) growth rate of 43.1%.Export of $705.09 billion, up 35.2%;Imported us $649.79 billion, an increase of 52.7%.
The customs statistics show that in June, our country export and import and export total monthly all refresh of the July 2008 historical records, a record.From what we see, annual foreign trade can be realized the growth of around 30%, but it depends on the exchange rate of the yuan, export tax refund policy and the European debt crisis three factors, of course domestic macroeconomic policy tightening will also affect on imports.
Overall look, the second half inevitably falling exports, especially the fourth quarter could fall to 10%-20% of the growth interval.But analysts say, this belongs to a more normal growth, the market does not need to worry too much.
Foreign trade in the first half of the overall picks up better off, has recovered to basic level before the crisis
Should say in June and the whole of the strong growth in the first half of the foreign trade data than consensus forecasts.The market is expected early, foreign trade for two to three years to return to pre-crisis levels, this year the foreign trade will remain 20% increase.A variety of judgment now look slightly conservative.
Foreign trade can be so quickly returned to pre-crisis levels is mainly thanks to two factors:
One is the foreign demand recovery than expected.Although the world economy still faces many problems that often there will be "second agent bottom" questions, China's export enterprise but it can receive your order.Analysts in the early part of the cause of waste analysis labor when mention, whatever the cause waste labor, one thing is for certain, namely enterprise order increased.From the data to see, recovery since the end of positive growth, export growth all the way walk is high, and in the month of may touch may be years of high 48.5%.The momentum of beating market expectations of close to 10%.From the enterprise feedback look, many enterprise order has been row to the end of the year.That is, if the second half of the world economy is not a significant event, this year China's export growth will doubt restorative situation.
2 it is domestic demand pull a sharp increase imports.In response to the financial crisis, the country has issued $4 trillion economic stimulus plan, the development of center of gravity from the economy transition to domestic demand, which greatly stimulated the growth of imports.In January this year that imports as much as 85.5%, although have since dropped, but still in the hovered around 50%.In the first half of this year, China's imported in the main commodity, imported 310 million tons of iron ore, up 4.1%, average price per ton for imported us $111.5, up 47%;Soybean import 25.8 million tons, up 16.8%, the average price per ton for imported us $442.4, up 7.4%.In addition, the import of mechanical and electronic products $302.64 billion, up 45.5%, of which 387000 cars auto imports, increased by 1.7 times.
Good foreign trade import and export performance directly pull the whole excellent performance.Be worth what carry is, the trade surplus sharply cut marks China's trade balance to target more closely.
Export growth in the first half of temporary phenomenon, the second half will return to normal
The first half of this year, export growth beating market expectations, especially the rate of growth of 48.5% in May is to let the market accident.But after all export data more to early is a reflection of the orders, both major overseas economies data or domestic regulation trends don't support export growth in the future to maintain high, export stage may have appeared at the top.
From tracking nearly 10 years of OECD leading indicators found, the OECD leading indicators general Chinese export data lead four to five months.And from the latest figures, OECD leading indicators already peaked in March, i.e., China export will start falling in July and data.
And from China's PMI index look, PMI new orders index can be objectively reflect three months after exports, and the past two months the new export orders index a continued callback, this also supports export growth will fall of July and judgment.
The second half of export faces three big uncertainty
Overall see, the second half of export slowdown basic no suspense.As a result of many uncertainties, there is difficult to predict export growth rate in the second half, but three factors will be pulled low basic export increase of the main reasons:
One is the RMB exchange rate.Since June 19,, the central bank announced yuan reform since the restart, against the us currency volatility increased significantly.Throughout the year is expected to RMB appreciation in about 2%-5%, will give processing trade enterprise to bring quite a difficult, had 3% of the market is appreciation as processing enterprise profit ceiling.
Two is to export tax refund policy adjustments.June 22,, the ministry of finance and the state administration of taxation announced about cancel a portion of the goods export tax refund notice (caishui [2010] no. 57)."Notice" announced, with the approval of the state council, since 2010 since July 15, including part cancel steel 406 goods export tax refund.According to the agency estimates, the revocation of export taxes rebate product exports account for 5.6% of the total export in China-7.8%, but now needs to worry about is export tax refund policy is a further tightening of may.
3 it is the cost of Labour.From the beginning of the waste of labor to the current raise tide, about the cost of enterprise can digest rise debate has not stopped.From the actual research situation look, the processing enterprises impact is bigger, part of the enterprise already close to zero profits edge.From the current look, industrial transfer is a a good choice.
Comprehensive look, the second half of our country foreign trade trend is expected to continue in the first half is difficult to strong growth momentum, but no need to fret about slowing of foreign trade, this is a return to normality