Definition

In a 1979 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two down consecutive quarters of GDP. In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.

See also

Recession of 1949

The Recession of 1949 was a downturn in the United States lasting for 11 months. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession began in November 1948 and lasted until October 1949.

The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetime. The recession began shortly after President Truman's "Fair Deal" economic reforms. The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

During the recession the GDP of US

During this recession, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States fell 1.7 percent. In October 1949, the unemployment rate reached its peak for the cycle of 7.9 percent.

Main causes of the recession

Many regard World War II to be the main cause of the recession.
According to C.A.Blyth "the most important cause of 1948-1949 recession was substantial fall in the fixed investments". *

Definition

In a 1979 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two down consecutive quarters of GDP. In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.

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