Leon County judges had removed Amendments 3, 7 and 9 from the ballot this summer because they deemed their summaries for voters to be too confusing -- and a majority of the justices on Florida's high court agreed, delivering a blow to Republican legislative leasders who had pushed the measures.

Earlier this month, House Speaker-designate Dean Cannon took the unusual step of appearing before the court to defend Amendment 7, which would have given lawmakers broader power to draw political districts regardless of other standards currently in the Constitution. Critics said it would have also weakened Amendments 5 and 6, which are also on the ballot and seek to limit lawmakers' power to gerrymander districts.

Cannon, a Winter Park Republican and lawyer, was a key architect of Amendment 7, which would broaden lawmakers' powers during the once-a-decade redistricting process that re-draws legislative and congressional maps.

Amendment 7 was the Republican-controlled Legislature's response to Amendments 5 and 6, put on the ballot by a coalition of trial lawyers, unions and good-government types and intended to limit legislators' powers to gerrymander districts to help incumbents and their political party hold onto power.

But Leon County Circuit Judge James Shelfer concluded last month that Amendment 7 was misleading, noting it took him three days to figure out that the amendment would supersede every other standard for redistricting. Specifically, it would allow lawmakers to lump together in districts communities of racial and language-minorities, as well as "communities of common interest."

"That doesn't tell me anything," said Justice Peggy Quince during a hearing on the amendment this month. "I can understand racial and language minorities, but what in the world is a 'community of interest?'"

The high court on Tuesday also rejected another lawsuit filed by opponents of Amendments 5 and 6 -- including U. S. Reps. Corrine Brown of Jacksonville and Mario Diaz-Balartof Miami -- that sought to have both of those measured removed from the ballot.

The court also refused to put back on the ballot Amendment 3, which would have given Save Our Homes-styled property tax breaks to first-time home buyers. This summer, a Leon County circuit judge ruled voters might mistakenly think all homeowners got the break.

Lastly, Amendment 9 was an attempt to water down the federal health-care mandate requiring people to have insurance, but was also deemed misleading by the high court and now won't go to voters.

The high court voted 5-2 to keep Amendments 7 and 9 off the ballot, with the two dissents coming from Chief Justice Charles Canady and Justice Ricky Polston. Canady, who wrote the dissent, argued the high court had allowed the Legislature to substitute the actual language of an amendment for a confusing ballot summary in 2004, and should have done so this time.

But now that he's the party standard-bearer, Scott is wasting no time in embracing both the party leaders who arranged to finance McCollum's campaign, as well as the Republican insiders and check-bundlers who actually raised that money.

Today, he is headlining meet-and-greets in Tampa and Orlando with two of the men he bashed in connection with their behind-the-scenes handling of the Jim Greer scandal, and who were funneling big checks into defeating him in last week's election -- Senate President-designate Mike Haridopolos and House Speaker-designate Dean Cannon.

Scott has already met with dozens of lobbyists and informed them he would rather raise cash through their client lists and traditional party donors, but would be willing to self-finance, too, if it's needed. Scott poured $50 million of his family's wealth into his primary.

And one of the first orders of business at Scott's campaign headquarters last week was to hire up all of McCollum's state-party-financed fundraising team, so he could essentially implement McCollum's general election fundraising plan and not have to self-finance his general election contest against Democrat Alex Sink.

The names of the Tallahassee or party-tied folks folding into the Scott campaign as of Friday, we're told, is headlined by uber-RPOF money man David Browning, former Charlie Crist and Republican Party of Florida finance guru Meredith O'Rourke,Carrie O'Rourke, Gretchen Picotte and Bridget Nocco.

One million get drug relief from health reform

> Posted by William Gibson on August 30, 2010 02:01 PM

Older voters were the age group least supportive of Barack Obama in the 2008 campaign, and polls indicate they are the most wary of the new health-care law he helped push through Congress.

Older patients in South Florida were especially disturbed by cutbacks to Medicare Advantage programs run by HMOs.

Kathleen Sebelius

Perhaps that’s one reason Kathleen Sebelius on Monday celebrated a milestone in one popular aspect of the new law: more than 1 million Medicare patients have received a $250 rebate check for prescription drug costs.

More than a quarter of the 4 million checks that Medicare expects to distribute nationwide have been received by eligible beneficiaries.

The checks automatically come in the mail when beneficiaries reach a gap in drug coverage known as the doughnut hole.

“These checks will make a difference in helping seniors continue to get the medications they need, and are one of many ways that the Affordable Care Act is helping seniors,” said Sebelius, secretary of health and human services.

Congressman Ron Klein -- a Democrat from Boca Raton, who represents large numbers of senior citizens and faces a tough re-election campaign -- persuaded House leaders to accelerate the new drug benefits to begin this year.

Next year, those who fall into the coverage gap will receive a 50-percent discount on covered brand-name medications. Medicare patients will pay a little less each year until the coverage gap is closed.

Sebelius' announcement made no reference to politics, of course, but it seemed calculated to reassure senior citizens, a key constituency.

“Older white voters have a more negative view of Obama,” noted Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University who tracks congressional elections. “Older voters also turn out (at the polls) and make up a larger share of the electorate in mid-term elections.”

August 26, 2010

Thrasher: Scott will raise $$$ for RPOF

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 26, 2010 01:19 PM

Republican Party of Florida Chairman John Thrasher said his meeting today with gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott went well, that Scott will begin fundraising for the party around the state soon, and will be sending some of his campaign staff to the capital city to begin taking the reins.

Thrasher, who has said some negative things about Scott in the heat of the primary, and Scott -- who had accused Thrasher of running the RPOF like indicted chairman Jim Greer-- met for two hours today in Fort Lauderdale and Thrasher said both men were more than willing to put the primary behind them.

Thrasher said they didn't discuss those negative attacks, and "we made our minds up that that was the past and we’re going to focus on the future." Although Attorney General Bill McCollum is still unwilling to endorse Scott, Thrasher said he was sending some staff, including executive director Ronnie Whitaker, down to South Florida tomorrow to start coordinating.

Scott has been getting policy briefings to bone up on state issues, and starting to look at candidates for his lieutenant governor nominee.

And Scott "absolutely has" agreed to fund-raise for the party, Thrasher said. "That was one of the great things that same out of today’s meeting, that he believes the state party can be helpful to him and he can be helpful to us."

That presumably means Scott will be asking for checks from some of the same companies that funded McCollum's $21 million campaign against him, those folks Scott said were "crying in their cocktails" at the returns Tuesday night.

on the lingering tension between Scott and McCollum, Thrasher also said "they’ve talked and I think It's kind of a thing in progress. It’ll work out. Everybody understands."

On RPOF executive board members who want Scott to air out his business background at their Sept. 10-11 meeting in Orlando, Thrasher demurred. "Obviously, we did talk about that event," he said. "What he decides to say to the membership is up to him.”

Did Ground Zero mosque save Scott?

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 26, 2010 11:12 AM

We know. You, the astute political observer, were probably wondering to yourself over the last couple weeks, why in the world is Naples millionaire Rick Scott so fixated on whether to build a mosque near ground zero in New York City? In the context of the Florida governor's race, it is an absolutely pointless issue to bring up -- unlike other burning Florida issues such as, you know, Arizona's immigration laws, and congressional health care reforms.

Scott diverted his campaign from Naples to Orlando two Saturdays ago to go on stage with Sean Hannity at the University of Central Florida and deplore President Obama for supporting the construction of an Islamic center near Ground Zero. Then his campaign penned an op-ed about it, and he released an ad on it.

Well, fine politically astute readers, that is why we (and perhaps some of you) are not paid the big bucks to design effective ways to push the buttons of Florida voters. According to the Scott campaign Web site, "Scott was not afraid to take a strong stance against the Ground Zero mosque. In fact, after the subpoena stunt from the McCollum campaign, the Ground Zero issue probably saved Scott’s campaign."

Here's the rest of the post written by Red State blogger Erik Erikson from the Scott Web site, entitled "Lessons for Conservatives from the Rick Scott Campaign."

McCollum sitting out the GOP rally around their nominee

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 26, 2010 10:47 AM

Two days after his stunning primary defeat, Attorney General Bill McCollum has talked with Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott, Democratic candidate Alex Sink and even independent candidate Bud Chiles.

But for now, he's sitting out the choreographed effort to put a smiley face on Florida Republicans' most brutal primary in ages. Today in Fort Lauderdale, Republican Party of Florida Chairman John Thrasher is meeting with Scott to discuss ways the two once-warring sides can work together. But McCollum intimated it would be some time before he makes a decision on who to back in the race.

"I'm not endorsing anyone right now in this race," he told reporters after the Florida Cabinet meeting Thursday. "I'll reserve judgment, and I'll be like a lot of voters. When the times comes, I'll cast my ballot. And if anything changes in regard to someone persuading me to get involved, I'll inform you. ... I'm going to focus on the four months of being attorney general that I have left."

McCollum also said he didn't begrudge other Republican leaders now kissing Scott's ring as the party's nominee.

"It's going to be natural for a lot of the leaders in the legislative delegation and others to choose to support him, and that's their prerogative. I'm just giving you my reservations that I still have," he said.

McCollum said he was disappointed his campaign failed to convince enough GOP voters he was the right man for the job, and blamed a lack of resources -- even though he cobbled together $21 million from big party donors, he fell far short of the $50 million barrage from Scott.

"I think the largest part of it was I was outspent and many of the negative attacks that he put up there, some people believed. They did because I couldn't respond to them adequately. It was one of those disappointing moments," McCollum said.

Absentee balloting likely made a big difference with some counties sending out their ballots in mid-July when Scott was soaring in the polls, McCollum said. But he said he doubted his last-ditch effort to court white conservative voters by adopting a hard-line Arizona-style immigration position cost him votes in Miami-Dade County, where turnout was not as high as in North Florida. "We won Dade County overwhelmingly; we won that Hispanic vote," McCollum said.

One stark difference: Scott unleashed a multimillion-dollar direct mail campaign run by Majority Strategies out of Northwest Florida with the help of Palm Beach attack-mail specialist Randy Nielsenwhile McCollum didn't have enough money to do any mailing in the final days of the campaign, he said.

"Our ability to be up on the air with more than we were was very restrictive," McCollum said. "I never had the resources to do a single mailing at the end of the campaign. We knew we weren't going to. We just hoped that what we were carrying out there with our message and in the media and the endorsements of all the newspapers would carry us. Obviously, it did not. It wasn't sufficient to overcome the tremendous advantage of over $50 million -- I think it was close to $60 million -- that Rick Scott spent of his personal money."

August 25, 2010

Meek’s strategy: Rally Democrats

> Posted by William Gibson on August 25, 2010 01:26 PM

Kendrick Meek – the self-described “only real Democrat” in Florida’s three-way U.S. Senate race -- won’t be changing his campaign strategy for the general election.

Meek needs just 75 percent of Democratic voters and 17 percent of independents to get more than a third of the total vote, campaign manager Abe Dyk said in a memo released to reporters on Wednesday.

Meek, who won the Democratic primary on Tuesday, faces Republican Marco Rubio and independent Charlie Crist in the general election. His first goal is to persuade Democrats to abandon Crist, setting up a Meek-Rubio contest.

“In Florida -- where Democratic registrations outpace Republicans by more than 600,000 and independents are likely to make up 18 percent of the electorate -- this race will be won by turning out the same Democratic base that just entrusted Kendrick with the party's nomination,” Dyk asserted.

Many Democrats, however, are attracted to Governor Crist’s moderate brand of politics, which he touted on Wednesday.

“Washington is broken. It’s a swamp of partisan bickering, finger-pointing and destructive political games,” Crist declared. “We have huge problems in this country and in this state, but instead of working together to fix them, the gridlock is worse than ever. I am running as an independent to change that.”

Crist has refused to say whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans in the Senate if elected, an important factor of many voters.

So, will Democratic voters stay with Meek, or will they turn to Crist?

Florida Republicans reject establishment

> Posted by William Gibson on August 25, 2010 11:02 AM

Tuesday’s primaries in Florida and Alaska – but not Arizona – reflect a clear pattern in this year’s elections:

Meek celebrates primary victory

Republican voters tend to reject career politicians, a sign of the anti-incumbent mood. Democratic voters are more inclined to stick with experienced candidates who have paid their dues to the party establishment.

Florida Senate candidate Kendrick Meek wore the party label proudly, calling himself the only real Democrat in the race while calling attention to endorsements from President Obama and former President Bill Clinton. Meek cited his long record of fighting for liberal Democratic causes, such as affirmative action and health-care reform.

Meek easily defeated Jeff Greene, the billionaire former Republican, in the Democratic primary.

Rick Scott, a political neophyte who presented himself as a reformer, upset the established GOP candidate Bill McCollum, the state attorney general and a familiar figure to Florida voters.

Alaska Republicans followed a similar pattern. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a rising star among Republicans on Capitol Hill and the daughter of a famous political family in Alaska, is trailing Joe Miller, an outsider candidate who was backed by Sarah Palin and the tea party movement.

Rick Scott shakes establishment

Miller is leading by less than 2,000 votes, with absentee ballots still to be counted.

Democrats, the party in power in Washington, seem to stick with incumbents or established politicians despite frustrations over the economy. Republicans generally favor political outsiders.

One clear exception on Tuesday was Senator John McCain’s victory in Arizona.

McCain overcame resistance from his party’s right wing. But it took $20 million of campaign spending and a retreat to more conservative ground for McCain to survive.

The general elections will show whether the outsiders in Florida and some other states can prevail.

August 24, 2010

Sink, Scott trading shots already

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 24, 2010 11:47 PM

TALLAHASSEE -- Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink already had a canned video ready to go taking shots at Republican nominee Rick Scott over his "many troubling and unanswered questions" about his background and because he "only moved to Florida seven years ago."

Technically, Scott fired the first shot, declaring in his victory remarks at the Hilton Fort Lauderdale Marina tonight that Sink was another special-interest tool, just like beaten Bill McCollum. Preparing for his fight against Sink, Scott said he was immune to special interests.
"They like my Democratic opponent," Scott said. "She plays by their rules."

RGA, AP call the race for Scott

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 24, 2010 11:04 PM

The Republican Governors Association and Associated Press have both called the GOP governor's race for Rick Scott, steeping up pressure on Attorney General Bill McCollum to concede the election and avoid a more damaging ordeal for the party.

“Intraparty struggles are often difficult to watch, and the contest in Florida has been a good example of that. That said, the primary is over, Rick Scott is the nominee, the general election has begun, and our party now looks forward.

“Alex Sink has had months to run in a clear field and has not gained any traction, showing that her message has failed to connect with voters. She represents the policies of Washington, D.C. Democrats: higher taxes, runaway spending and greater intrusion into the everyday lives of Floridians.

“Couple her flagging campaign with the legitimate candidacy of Bud Chiles, and there is a real battle being waged for Democratic votes in Florida.”

No McCollum concession tonight?

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 24, 2010 10:55 PM

Attorney General Bill McCollum just told supporters at a Hilton in Altamonte Springs that he wasn't yet conceding the race and a sliver of uncounted votes in Broward and Miami-Dade could put him over the top.

Former health-care executive Rick Scott clung to a drum-tight lead over McCollum on Tuesday night in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, as the most-expensive primary — and one of the ugliest — in Florida history staggered to a bitter conclusion.

With 78 percent of precincts reporting, Scott had 46 percent of the vote to McCollum’s 43 percent, a lead he had held most of the night. A third GOP candidate, Mike McCalister, garnered a respectable 10 percent for having spent only $8,000 — a vote some attributed to voter disgust with the two leading candidates.

The winner will face the state’s chief financial officer, Alex Sink, who coasted to a Democratic primary win over an obscure opponent. And given the high unfavorable ratings generated by both GOP candidates’ ads, Sink begins the general-election campaign as the favorite, according to recent polls.

A defeat for McCollum would send shock waves through the Florida Republican hierarchy, which had rallied to repel Scott’s self-described “outsider” bid in recent weeks. State legislative leaders and party officials, congressional Republicans — even former Gov. Jeb Bush — had tried to overcome the mountain of money Scott poured into his candidacy this summer.

"At the end of the day, we don't know the result," McCollum just told the crowd. "This is going to go into the wee hours of the morning."

Scott was planning to speak to his supporters in Fort Lauderdale at 11 p.m.

The mood at Rick Scott's party brightens

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 24, 2010 08:39 PM

By Jennifer Gollan and Aaron Deslatte

With two of the biggest counties -- Miami-Dade and Broward -- slow to report, former health-care executive Rick Scott clung to an early lead over Attorney General Bill McCollum Tuesday night in the race for the Republican nomination for governor, as the most-expensive primary in Florida history staggered to a bitter conclusion.

With 42 percent of precincts reporting, Scott had 46 percent of the vote to McCollum’s 44 percent. A third GOP candidate, Mike McCalister, trailed badly.

The winner will face the state’s chief financial officer, Alex Sink, who coasted to a Democratic primary win over an obscure opponent. And given the high unfavorable ratings generated by both GOP candidates’ ads, Sink begins the general election campaign as the favorite, according to recent polls.

Roughly 100 supporters are mingling over wine and cheese in a cavernous ballroom at the Hilton Fort Lauderdale Marina.

First-time campaign volunteer Raymond Burton said Scott's professional trajectory as a self-made businessman inspired him to work phone banks on Scott's behalf this month.

"Being an outsider will be an advantage," said Burton, a retired state worker from Fort Myers. "His wealth should be a positive... he will run government like a business."

Insurance company owner Jesus Remon also praised Scott for his business prowess and scoffed at the notion that Scott's multimillionaire status would undercut his ability to connect to the general electorate.

"Today it takes a lot of money to run a campaign, so I think it's a good thing," said Remon, 47, of Miami. "He has a long history of success in business and he'd be willing to bring that approach to government."

With Scott edging ahead of McCollum in the primary, Scott supporter Johnny Van brimmed with pride.

"We came here thinking he was the underdog," said Van, 79, a retired entertainer from Parkland. "And now we're seeing he's ahead."

With his swift rise from modest beginnings, Scott appeared to draw all ages to his side.

Mike Heller, 31, said Scott's overstuffed wallet cuts both ways.

"It allows him to run a successful campaign, but some voters will hold it against him and say he's trying to buy his way into office," said Heller, who owns a yacht supplier in Davie.

Voter turnout light, and Thrasher's post-primary love fest

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 24, 2010 04:20 PM

Die-hard primary voters were trickling to the polls in low numbers around the state on Tuesday, despite the $100 million spent to drive Republican and Democratic voters to the polls in hard-fought U.S. Senate and gubernatorial primaries.

In Longwood, Attorney General Bill McCollum (video below) predicted his hard-fought GOP gubernatorial primary against Naples investor Rick Scott would have a result early after the polls close at 7 p.m.

"Those of us who are political junkies we've followed this, but others have just tuned out the ads," McCollum told reporters after casting his ballot. Scott, meanwhile, was heckled as he tried to talk to the press outside a Naples voting site.

In Jacksonville, Republican Party of Florida Chairman John Thrasher -- trying to survive his own GOP primary for his state Senate seat -- said Republicans would have to pull together after the brutal primary. The Scott campaign has questioned why the RPOF wasn't asking Scott to fly around the state on a victory tour if he wins the party's nomination, and Thrasher said he didn't know if McCollum was doing one, either.

Thrasher and Scott have been trading shots over the weekend, as Scott's campaign attempted to link McCollum to indicted former party chairman Jim Greer in newspaper and television ads.

Scott also suggested Thrasher was carrying on in Greer fashion by running the party to benefit GOP insiders and trying to "clear the field" of primary opposition for McCollum.

“I think the relationship between Rick Scott and I isn’t as good as it ought be. I’ll be the first person to acknowledge that," Thrasher said. "But I absolutely refuse to stand by and not address that when I know what was said was not accurate ….”

“I think it’s regrettable. But we’ve got to pick it up and move on. I think people understand the passion of politics."

Asked if he would step down as party chairman if Scott wins, Thrasher said "absolutely not."

"The people -- the grassroots party leaders -- elected me to do this job this year," Thrasher said. "I intend to stay; I have no intention of doing that.”

Will Meek or Greene turn out the most voters?

> Posted by William Gibson on August 24, 2010 02:22 PM

Voter turnout for a Florida primary in August is bound to be low, especially in a non-presidential election year.

The victors likely will be candidates with the most effective strategy for persuading supporters to show up at the polls.

In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, Kendrick Meek is counting on a grassroots network of dedicated voters, especially in African-American communities. That’s one reason he mounted a petition drive to get on the ballot, figuring those who signed their names will be committed enough to vote.

Opponent Jeff Greene spent millions of his own money on an advertising blitz. Opinion polls indicate that strategy helped him gain attention and mount a serious challenge to Meek, but it may have fizzled by the time early voting began.

Greene, a political outsider, appears to be counting on an anti-incumbent attitude to spur turnout and help him prevail against Meek, a congressman backed by the party establishment.

After casting his own ballot, Greene will be campaigning in Broward County condominium communities in Pembroke Pines, Tamarac, and Coconut Creek.

Meek also is stumping in South Florida, with events in Miami, Delray Beach, Plantation and Hollywood.

Their differing strategies will be tested at polling places across the state. Turnout reportedly is light.

Florida wins education funds

> Posted by William Gibson on August 24, 2010 12:21 PM

Florida’s school reforms have helped the state become one of 10 winners of the federal “Race to the Top” competition for education dollars.

Florida’s share of the available $3.4 billion has not been decided, but the state could get up to $700 million to help improve schools and close achievement gaps.

Florida was a finalist in the first round of the competition but got no funds. State officials stressed reform efforts in this second round.

“Our first application was too top-down driven and was not based on collaboration by all stakeholders,” said Congresswoman Kathy Castor, a Democrat from Tampa. “This time, we did it right. Teachers, parents, school districts, school boards, the state Legislature and education-related nonprofits were represented in a working group to improve our application.”

Castor noted that Florida also will get about $555 million through a state-aid bill approved by Congress earlier this month. The money already has prevented layoffs in Broward County and is expected to save school jobs throughout the state over the next year or two.

August 23, 2010

Will Rick Scott get his 1.7 million voters?

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 23, 2010 05:28 PM

TALLAHASSEE -- Naples millionaire Rick Scott's campaign has been betting the farm (or at least $50 million of his family's estate) that Florida voters will be driven to the polls with the same anti-incumbent zeal to oust career politicians as other states that have seen Tea Party newbies shock the system.

GOP gubernatorial rival Bill McCollum's inner sanctum has quietly scoffed. Heck, some of the folks we've talked to have downright mocked the prediction. Tomorrow, somebody will be laughing, and somebody will be unemployed. But here are a couple of reasons why turnout might not hit the record levels Scott is predicting.

Second reason. Early voting hasn't increased the overall percentage of the population who vote. It has just made it easier for people who were going to vote anyway.

So what's happening on the ground? More than 930,000 primary voters already cast ballots via absentee or early voting – or roughly 8 percent of the total 11.1 million registered Florida voters.

Republicans were voting early in higher numbers than in 2006. Just over 524,600 GOP voters had cast ballots heading into Tuesday’s primary, or 13 percent of total registered Republicans. In 2006 -- the last non-presidential primary with a hot GOP gubernatorial primary – over 140,000 Republicans voted absentee and 128,000 voted early. This primary season, more than 332,000 Republicans had returned absentee ballot through Sunday and 191,976 Republicans had voted by the close of early voting.

With a less aggressive ad campaign to push them to the polls, about 350,000 Democrats, or just under 8 percent, had already voted, according to campaign-finance data provided by the parties.

Scott’s campaign has been banking on Florida seeing a wave of new or casual GOP voters heading to the polls – boasting the anti-incumbent mood of the GOP base would propel 40 percent or more to the polls, the highest level since 1966.

Scott campaign consultant Tony Fabrizio on Monday predicted 1.7 million Florida Republicans would cast ballot by the end of Tuesday.

"This is consistent with the increased turnout we have seen in Republican primaries across the country where outsiders have shocked the establishment candidates," he said in a statement.

McCollum's campaign said it, in fact, was winning the battle for the casual GOP voters. "Attorney General McCollum is leading low-propensity voters in all recent public polls, so we feel very good about our position heading into election day," McCollum spokeswoman Kristy Campbell said. "We have a strong grassroots ground game and right now hundreds of volunteers are working to get out voters in the final hours of the election."

But elections officials said the number was likely to be much smaller, perhaps between 1 million and 1.3 million Republicans casting ballots out the nearly 4 million GOP voters.

That is largely because more voters casting ballots early doesn’t mean more voters are turning out overall – just that more voters who would have otherwise waited until Election Day are now growing more comfortable with casting ballots early.

"As encouraging as that might be, I just don’t see it happening," said Seminole County Elections Supervisor Michael Ertel, who estimates 23 percent of the Republican-leaning county’s voters will cast ballots.

"The candidates are driving turnout, but the voters are learning about the opportunities to cast ballots early."

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 23, 2010 11:26 AM

A day before Florida's most expensive Republican gubernatorial primary ever, two new polls are showing the race tightening as the relentless negative advertising barrage between Naples millionaire Rick Scott and Attorney General Bill McCollum hits its crescendo.

A new Quinnipiac University poll has found McCollum's 9-point lead from from last week had shriveled to 4-percentage points, with the former Longwood congressman clinging to a 39-percent to 35-percent advantage, which is within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin for error.

In an Aug. 18 Quinnipiac survey, McCollum held a 44 percent to 35 percent lead over Scott. So, what's changed? Within the two Q-polls, it appears Scott's attacks on McCollum's insider status in the party -- and a particularly damning ad comparing indicted state GOP Chairman Jim Greerto McCollum -- are having an influence on women voters.

Early last week, McCollum held a commanding 48-31 percent advantage over Scott among women. But among voters surveyed on Saturday and Sunday, McCollum's support with female voters had fallen to 39 percent to 33 percent for Scott. That is a 9 percentage-point drop in less than a week.

At the same time, Scott's $6 million in ads over the last week are broadcasting Greer's mug-shot next to a photo of McCollum, and on Sunday the Scott campaign ran full-page ads in most major state newspapers -- including the Orlando Sentinel, Miami Herald, Times-Union and Tampa Tribune -- with the same Greer line of attack.

Meanwhile, North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, one of the Democratic polling firms that had Scott up by double-digits earlier this summer, released it's own survey taken over the same two days showing Scott over McCollum, 47-percent to 40-percent.

What gives? For starters, the most important differences to note about the polls relate to the population.

Quinnipiac contacts the voters it surveys with a live person calling a randomized list of registered Republicans who have cast ballots in past Florida primaries. PPP calls voters who have cast a ballot in any one of the prior three general elections, then employs an automated screening process to determine if the person who answered the phone is Republican and likely to cast a ballot. The bottom line, the PPP method is less expensive, and introduces more potential bias into the results. That said, it is a common practice among polling firms.

But the poll has McCollum up by 13 percent with seniors and somehow down by 7 percent overall. As one GOP insider (with an admitted pro-McCollum bias) scoffed, do they realize the average age of a Florida GOP primary voter is 60?

Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen said the Florida GOP primary was the most perplexing his firm was measuring this year, compared to statewide contests in 30 other states.

“I don’t know if there really is a smoking gun explanation for why the polls are so different on the Republican side,” he said. "People are just finding different results. … Out of all the primaries we’ve polled this entire cycle, this may be the most unpredictable one.”

He acknowledged that his survey methodology was more likely to capture general election voters who won't turn out in the primary, in which case it would be under-sampling hard-core GOP primary voters.

"We’re probably interviewing a wider base of people," Jensen said. "The more Republican activists who turn out, that probably means a better outcome for McCollum."

Nonetheless, the PPP poll finds the same shift among women identifed by the Q-poll. In the PPP poll, Scott is leading among women, 46-percent to 39-percent.

In these results, size doesn't really matter. PPP surveyed 304 Republicans for its results, while Quinnipiac surveyed 771 GOP voters. All that means is that Qunnipiac is able to be slightly more precise in the inferences they make about the overall voting population. PPP's margin for error is plus-or-minus 5.6 percentage points, which means either Scott's number or McCollum's number within the overall population could be within 5.6 percentage points of where it is in the survey. If the survey were re-taken, there is 95 percent confidence that the results would fall somewhere within that same margin. The Q-poll sampled more voters, and it's margin for error is smaller, at 3.5 percentage points.

One last difference between the polls is the margin of undecideds. The Qunnipiac poll had 22 percent undecided, while the PPP poll had 13 percent unsure of who they would vote for. The Q-poll found fewer of McCollum's supporters willing to change their mind this late in the contest (27 percent) than with Scott (39 percent). But a huge swath of Republican voters (perhaps 500,000) have already cast ballots either at early voting sites or with absentee ballots, meaning they would be excluded from the surveys and the results could be skewed.

Quinnipiac assistant polling director Peter Brown said McCollum's base of support appeared "a great deal more solid" than Scott's, although the pool of voters waiting until the last minute to make a decision was extremely large and could still swing either way -- evidenced by the erosion of McCollum's support among women.

But despite a nearly $50 million personal investment that has plastered Scott’s face on every channel from Fox News to Lifetime, a new poll shows Scott falling farther behind McCollum where it counts: likely voters.

The Mason-Dixon poll commissioned by the Sun Sentinel and other news organizations found McCollum with 45 percent support among likely voters compared to 36 percent support for the former health care executive, with Republican Mike McAlister drawing 4 percent.

The nine-point advantage among 500 GOP voters surveyed Tuesday through Thursday suggests undecided voters are breaking two-to-one for McCollum since the last Mason-Dixon poll a week earlier found him with a four-percentage point lead. The former Longwood congressman is now leading in every region of the state save for Scott’s home turf in southwest Florida.

His lead in Central Florida is 44 percent support to Scott’s 35 percent. McCollum’s strongest region is Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, where he’s up 51-percent to 27-percent, with a huge advantage among Hispanic voters. GOP women are also leaning heavily toward McCollum 47 percent to 33 percent, compared to the 44-39 percent edge he has among men.

Initially, Scott’s $49.9 million infusion of personal wealth worked.

Scott built a double-digit lead in other polls this summer as he campaigned as a self-proclaimed outsider “who knows how to create private-sector jobs.” Scott was still up 37 percent to 31 percent as recently as an Aug 5 Mason-Dixon poll.

But that support evaporated as McCollum stepped up attacks on Scott’s business background as the ex-CEO of a company fined $1.7 billion for Medicare fraud. In an Aug 5 debate, McCollum declared “Who are you, Rick Scott?” in an oft-repeated campaign line. Scott dodged joint appearances and refused to release a deposition he gave earlier this year in another lawsuit against a health-care company he founded.

Scott loaned his campaign an extra $12 million in the last week alone. Combined with the $11 million his wife’s trust has funneled into his ad-buying political fund, Scott has exhausted more than $40 million on television ads and $50 million in total.

“The blunders on the ground where the biggest part of it,” Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said. “Then there were some dumb ads in there, and all there was was ‘attack, attack, attack.’”

McCollum has raised just $7.7 million in hard money — but benefited from $3.9 million in help from the state Republican Party and another $9 million in special-interest money from Walt Disney, U.S. Sugar, Florida Power & Light, Publix Supermarkets and other companies, used to buy ads. In total, McCollum and his corporate backers hurled $21 million into his primary.

August 19, 2010

Alex Sink reaps rewards from GOP civil war

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 19, 2010 09:54 AM

TALLAHASSEE -- More conventional wisdom that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sinkis likely to capitalize on the $51 million-plus GOP ad war between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott: a new Quinnipiac University survey finds her slightly leading either Republican candidate in the general election.

Sink leads McCollum 31 percent to 29 percent, and leads Scott 33 percent to 29 percent. The poll of 1,096 likely general election voters has a margin for error of plus- or minus-3 percent, so statistically the hypothetical match-ups are dead-heats. But Sink had been trailing McCollum for much of the last year, and only this week started airing her first ads. And the poll even accounts for former Democrat-turned-independent candidate Lawton "Bud" Chiles, III, who is drawing 12 percent support.

Here's the poll release:

Apparently bolstered by the civil war for the Republican nomination for Governor in Florida, State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, is on the plus side of very close races over either Republican candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. She gets 31 percent to State Attorney General Bill McCollum’s 29 percent. Sink gets 33 percent to businessman Rick Scott’s 29 percent. In either matchup, independent candidate Bud Chiles gets 12 percent and about 20 percent of voters are undecided.
Scott was at 29 percent to Sink’s 27 percent in a July 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and McCollum had 27 percent to Sink’s 26 percent.
In the U.S. Senate race, Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, leads Republican Marco Rubio 39 – 32 percent, with U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek getting 16 percent, if he wins the Democratic nomination. If Jeff Greene gets the Democratic nod, he gets 15 percent to Crist’s 40 percent and Rubio’s 32 percent.
President Barack Obama has a split 47 – 47 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 46 – 50 percent approval July 30 and the President’s best score in Florida since April.
“Watching television must have been an enjoyable experience for Florida CFO Alex Sink over the last few months, as she watched Attorney General Bill McCollum and Rick Scott tear into each other with attack ads. Although she trailed either GOP competitor by eight or nine points in June, she has been the unintended beneficiary of the heavy volume of negative television ads her potential November opponents launched against each other,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“She has been able to sit back and save her money for the November election, while whoever wins the Republican primary will have substantial work to do healing wounds within his own party and cleaning up his image,” Brown added.
Sink’s favorability numbers have hardly moved in the last two months, going from 28 – 14 percent favorable on June 9 to 30 – 15 percent favorable today, with 53 percent who don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.
“Once the primary is over, the race for Governor will be one to define Alex Sink for the majority of Floridians who don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. McCollum, who leads the GOP primary race, has seen his favorable/unfavorable ratio sink from 37 – 29 percent favorable among all registered voters to a negative 33 – 34 percent. Scott’s has dropped from 31 – 22 percent favorable in June to a negative 28 – 40 percent today.
“At this point it’s not clear whether independent Bud Chiles will be a force in November. His numbers have ticked down since his announcement, but he is getting one in eight votes and that is nothing to sneeze at,” said Brown.
In the Senate race against Rubio and Meek, Crist gets 45 percent of the Democrats – more than Meek’s 36 percent – and 50 percent of the independent voters. Against Greene, Crist gets 51 percent of the Democrats to Greene’s 31 percent, and 48 percent of independent voters.
“Crist is getting more support from Democrats than either Greene or Meek. The key for Crist will be whether he can hold this many Democrats once the party’s nomination is settled and keep his half of the independent voters,” said Brown.
“Crist’s edge in the Senate race is built on the very favorable impression Floridians have of his performance as Governor. They approve 56 – 35 percent of how he is leading the state, an impressive figure at a time when voters in many states seem to be taking out their economic frustrations on their governors,” said Brown.
Florida voters disapprove 30 – 22 percent of U.S. Sen. George LeMieux, whose seat Crist is trying to fill, while Sen. Bill Nelson has a 45 – 33 percent approval rating.
From August 11 – 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,096 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

August 17, 2010

LeMieux to Crist: Return GOP contributions

> Posted by William Gibson on August 17, 2010 05:56 PM

Florida Senator George LeMieux implied on Tuesday that his old friend and confidant Charlie Crist should return campaign contributions to Republican donors.

Jim Greer

LeMieux was asked at a press conference about Crist’s decision to return $9,600 of campaign donations to Jim Greer, the former Florida Republican chairman who has been charged with money laundering, theft and attempted fraud.

“There are a lot of Republicans who would like to have their contributions back, too,” LeMieux remarked.

Governor Crist appointed LeMieux to serve the remainder of the term of retired Senator Mel Martinez. LeMieux broke with Crist, however, when the governor left the Republican Party to run as an independent for the U.S. Senate.

LeMieux said he remains in contact with Crist to talk about the people’s business, such as matters involving the oil spill in the Gulf.

McCollum-Scott ad war hits $51.2 million

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 17, 2010 04:21 PM

TALLAHASSEE -- The gubernatorial ad war between Republicans Bill McCollum and Rick Scott will go down as not only the meanest, but also the most expensive primary in Florida history.

Through next Tuesday’s election, the two GOP contenders will have spent a combined $51.2 million on television spots. Scott, who has largely self-financed his campaign, leads the way by spending $37.9 million on ads – including $4.4 million over the last seven days of the campaign. McCollum, by comparison, is spending $13.3 million on ads this summer, and about $1.2 million in the final week with help from interest groups like the Florida Chamber of Commerce and U.S. Sugar Corp.

Interesting geographic breakdowns, too. The politically vital Interstate-4 corridor continues to be the place where both campaigns direct their biggest ad blitzes. They collectively bought $12.87 million in ads in the Tampa Bay television market, and $12.6 million in Orlando. Scott spent $8.6 million on TV in in Orlando and $8.96 million in Tampa. McCollum spent $4 million on Orlando TV and $3.9 million on Tampa ads.

But one of the clear strategic difference is the focus (or lack thereof) on South Florida.

Scott, who was a complete unknown to the electorate prior to April, set up his campaign headquarters in Fort Lauderdale and has devoted $7.4 million, or roughly 19.5 percent of his media buying, to the Miami-Dade/Broward television market. McCollum, by contrast, has enjoyed historically good support from South Florida Hispanic Republicans, and spent only $818,000, or 6 percent, of his TV money in Miami.

Scott's gap was narrower in the Palm Beach TV market, where he spent $3.6 million, or 9.5 percent of his total, to McCollum's $1 million, good for 7.8 percent.

If Scott pulls off the upset, political observers might look for the cause in South Florida.

Chamber poll: Gelber up slightly on Aronberg in AG race

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 17, 2010 02:55 PM

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll from last week shows state Sen.Dan Gelber, D-Miami Beach, with a slight lead over fellow Sen. Dave Aronberg, D-Greenacres, in their attorney general primary.

The poll of 785 likely voters by Cherry Communications had a 3.5 percent margin for error in general election match-ups and a 5.7 percent error margin in Democratic primary contests -- which means Gelber's 20 percent support and Aronberg's 14 percent support equates to a statistical dead-heat. Either candidate could be slightly ahead or behind, with a majority of Democratic primary voters (57 percent) still non-committal on the race.

For the record, the Chamber is not high on Gelber, who is being backed by the trial bar lobby.

The chamber's poll last week found Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum with a 12-point lead over Naples millionaire Rick Scottin the GOP gubernatorial primary, a lead that is on the high end of other publicly available voter survey results.

August 16, 2010

Florida gets money to block hefty insurance hikes

> Posted by William Gibson on August 16, 2010 05:00 PM

Florida was awarded $1 million on Monday to try to prevent unreasonable increases in health insurance premiums.

Kathleen Sebelius, secretary of health and human services, released the money from the new health-care law as a preliminary step toward reining in insurance premiums.

Florida will use the money to review proposed increases by insurance companies and take action against those deemed unfair.

The administration is counting on the new law to curb costs by increasing competition and pooling coverage through insurance exchanges starting in 2014.

“Between now and then, we will continue to work with states to ensure consumers are receiving value for their premium dollars and to avoid the kind of double-digit premium increases seen recently,” Sebelius said.

Obama heads to South Florida to help Dems

> Posted by William Gibson on August 16, 2010 03:14 PM

After vacationing last weekend on the Panhandle, President Obama will return to Florida on Wednesday to help the state Democratic Party raise money.

Meek with Obama in 2008

The biggest beneficiary may be Senate candidate Kendrick Meek, a featured guest who is expected to speak at the event.

It takes place at the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach. Doors open about 4 p.m.

Meek is running as “the only real Democrat” in the race, but he faces a strong challenge in the party primary on Aug. 24 from billionaire businessman Jeff Greene, a former Republican. Also running in the primary is former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre.

Presidents don’t usually take sides in party primaries, but this year is exceptional in many ways. Obama -- along with former President Bill Clinton and state party leaders -- has endorsed Meek.

Also featured will be gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink, Florida Senator Bill Nelson and Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston.

Obama’s Florida trip is part of a three-day campaign swing to help Democrats raise money and try to contain their losses in the congressional mid-term elections.

Will Obama visit boost Florida tourism?

> Posted by William Gibson on August 16, 2010 01:13 PM

The First Family took a dip in the warm waters of the Gulf, strolled the Panhandle beaches, stopped for ice cream, chatted with other visitors, took a boat ride, spied a porpoise and did the kinds of things most people do when they come to Florida.

Obama and daughter Sasha

But when the president visits, TV cameras and a pack of journalists tag along, broadcasting it to the world. In this case, the Obamas’ weekend beach trip to Panama City was designed to promote Florida tourism in the wake of a horrific oil spill.

Mission accomplished?

The next few months of vacation bookings along the oil-ravaged coast will help answer that question. A big part of Florida’s economy stands to gain.

The much ridiculed presidential visit was interpreted by Republicans as a “27-hour guilt trip,” a way for President Obama to deflect criticism for extolling Florida beaches in recent weeks while vacationing elsewhere.

The president nevertheless may have succeeded by calling the world’s attention to Florida’s beaches as a safe and pleasurable place to visit, even after an oil spill.

Perception is everything in politics and in tourism. Florida promoters need all the help they can get.

August 15, 2010

Alex Sink mocks GOP bickering in first ad

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 15, 2010 05:48 PM

With the luxury of no real primary opposition, Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Alex Sink has been able to quietly raise cash and bide her time while Republicans Rick Scott and Bill McCollum ripped each other to shreds this summer.

No more. Sink's first ad, called 'Get Real," began airing today. Sink has bought $950,000 in TV from now through the Aug. 24 primary, hoping her above-the-fray, "I'm the adult supervision" message cuts through to voters.

"I don't know about you but I've had just about enough of politicians attacking each other," Sink says in the spot. In the background, two actors depicting Scott and McCollum are in each other's faces, McCollum yelling 'Let's get it on," and Scott saying "Let's get to work."

August 14, 2010

Mason-Dixon poll: Rubio gains in Senate race

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 14, 2010 11:46 PM

WASHINGTON — Republican Marco Rubio has nudged ahead of independent Charlie Crist in Florida's nationally watched U.S. Senate race in a hypothetical three-way matchup with Democrat Kendrick Meek, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Saturday.

Rubio led Crist in the poll 38 percent to 33 percent, with 18 percent for Meek and 11 percent undecided.

Rubio and Crist are running neck and neck, however, if billionaire businessman Jeff Greene becomes the Democratic nominee, the poll found. In that hypothetical matchup, Crist got 39 percent of those polled, Rubio 38 percent and Greene 12 percent.

The statewide poll of 625 registered voters indicates that Rubio, a conservative Cuban-American from Miami, has gained strength over the past three months. And Meek has opened up a double-digit lead over Greene in the fiercely contested Democratic primary.

The poll found that Meek, who launched his first television advertisements last month, led Greene among Democratic voters 40 percent to 26 percent, a 14-point margin that establishes Meek as the front-runner in the Aug. 24 Democratic primary.

Crist's fate depends on whether he attracts large numbers of Democratic voters in the general election, the poll found. The results indicate that Meek is gaining support among Democrats, which could draw votes away from Crist and give Rubio an advantage.

"Given the fact that he [Crist] has largely burned his bridges with Republicans and is drawing less than half of the state's unaffiliated voters, even a 10 percent drop in Democratic support would pull his current vote under 30 percent — a level that would make the race unwinnable," said Brad Coker, managing director of the poll.

Sink gets an early start in ad war

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 14, 2010 09:13 AM

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink is launching her first TV buy next week — in the midst of a $47 million-plus GOP primary.

Interesting decision. Sink has raised $7.4 million and not had to spend hardly anything this summer while Republicans Bill McCollum and Rick Scott have nuked each other with attack ads.

But will anybody notice Sink in the last-week barrage of Attack TV to come? She has bought $853,000 on TV in Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, West Palm Beach and Tallahassee running Monday through the Aug. 24 primary.

McCollum defends his secret $$$$$

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 14, 2010 09:12 AM

THE VILLAGES – This week, one of the stealthy Washington-based groups paying for Republican Bill McCollum’s ads has shipped another $500,000 into the 527 group, Florida First Initiative, his campaign is using to blast Rick Scott.

The League of American Voters — headed by former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson– has also bought close to $925,000 in television ads for McCollum.

And that is in addition to the $1.8 million another group called the Alliance for America spent on ads for McCollum this summer.

GOP gubernatorial rival Rick Scott’scampaign has drawn attention to the secret cash from the two groups — because state and federal law will never require any disclosure of where it came from. Because both groups are incorporated as 501(c)4 non-profit organizations, they will never have to reveal contributors — although U.S. Sugar Corp., has admitted it contributed to at least one such group to help McCollum.

On his campaign bus in Cocoa, McCollum initially expressed confidence his campaign was disclosing all its big contributors on a Web site and in state camapign-finance reports. Informed a few minutes later that the money was being funneled through a group that wouldn’t have to disclose, McCollum back-tracked.

“Perhaps the laws should be changed in some way, but first I was unaware that they gacve the money,” McCollum said. “Second, I’m happy they gave it. Obviously’ I’d like their support. Third, we’re abiding by the laws, if It can be disclosed it should be. I dont’ even know how that organization operates. But I’m sure it’s legal, if its not legal I’ll make it right.”

QUESTION: It is legal, but is it right?

“I haven’t examined it, this particular process, but I’ll tell you what, I am for disclosure of everything that can be disclosed.”

Hispanic voters divided on Arizona-style immigration law

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 14, 2010 09:07 AM

JACKSONVILLE BEACH — As he fought to keep his underfinanced bid for governor from falling apart this summer, Attorney General Bill McCollum has been able to lean on one base of Republican support: Hispanic voters.

But now that polls suggest McCollum's campaign has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Naples millionaire Rick Scott, he is taking a big risk by launching a hard-edged Arizona-style immigration policy that is ostracizing some of his top Latino backers.

A poll commissioned by the Sun Sentinel and other media released Friday shows the issue is potent with Republicans.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey found that 81 percent of GOP voters likely to cast ballots in the Aug. 24 primary support the Arizona immigration law, which Scott was first to pounce on last spring.

McCollum vacillated, saying first the law was "far out there" because it allowed police to stop people on suspicion of being here illegally but then supporting an amended version that limited checks to people stopped for other "lawful" reasons. He then filed court briefs defending the law in the Obama administration's federal court challenge and this week called for adoption of a similar law in Florida.

But among Hispanic Republicans, support for an Arizona-style immigration law drops.

Only 54 percent of Hispanic GOP voters – who are overwhelmingly Cuban – support the Arizona law and 36 percent oppose it, the Mason-Dixon survey found. However, because the Hispanic sample size is so small, support for the law could be 10 percentage points higher -- or lower -- pollster Brad Coker acknowledged.

As McCollum traveled northeast Florida during a four-day bus tour, he is straddling both sides of that ethnic divide.

"I support Arizona's immigration law. A lot of people have questioned that in this campaign, but I do support the law," he told patrons Friday morning at the Bright Mornings Café in Fernandina Beach.

McCollum said he wanted Florida police to have directives to check the immigration status of people they stop or arrest if they have a "reasonable suspicion" they are here illegally.

"The brouhaha that surrounds this law is far greater and exceeds the fundamentals that are in it," he added. Keep reading.

August 13, 2010

Opposition to offshore drilling eases in Florida

> Posted by William Gibson on August 13, 2010 04:10 PM

Opposition to offshore oil drilling has diminished in Florida over the past three months, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released on Friday.

The statewide poll found voters about evenly split, with 47 percent in favor of “drilling for oil in the waters off of the coast of Florida.” Some 44 percent were opposed and 9 percent undecided.

That’s a big leap in support since a poll in May, which found only 35 percent in favor of drilling, 55 percent opposed and 10 percent undecided.

The shift may reflect great relief at news that a gushing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been stopped and the fact that most of the state’s coastline has been spared from the environmental damage.

The May poll was conducted when the well was spewing uncontrollably and marine scientists warned that oil might get caught in a loop current that carries water from the Gulf through the Florida Keys and along the southeast coast.

The slick, it turns out, remained north of the loop current, and fortuitously an eddy shut off streamers that appeared headed for South Florida.

When public opposition swelled, the Obama administration imposed a partial moratorium on deepwater drilling. Governor Charlie Crist called a special legislative session to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot to ban it in state waters, a proposal quickly dismissed by the Legislature.

Florida voters in the latest poll gave Obama and Crist low marks for their handling of the spill.

Only 36 percent said Obama did an “excellent” or “good” job in this regard, while 61 percent rated his handling of it as “fair” or “poor.”

Only 43 percent rated Crist’s performance on the oil spill as “excellent” or “good,” while 51 percent rated it as “fair” or “poor.”

Despite the recent shift in voter attitudes, drilling remains far less popular in Florida than in past years. An August 2008 poll found that a clear majority -- 61 percent -- of Florida voters favored drilling.

The latest poll showed a big gender gap and a partisan split on this matter.

Democrats exploit Social Security reform issue

> Posted by William Gibson on August 13, 2010 12:59 PM

Democrats are trying to turn Social Security reform into a major issue in the mid-term congressional elections, mostly by attacking Republicans for trying to “privatize” the program.

They hope to get across this message through a press conference set for Friday, a videotape and a burst of public statements on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the program.

In South Florida, Congressmen Ron Klein and Ted Deutch, both Democrats from Boca Raton, will celebrate the anniversary with senior citizens at town hall meetings in Pompano Beach and Deerfield Beach. The program is especially important to Florida because of its huge retiree population.

Democrats are seizing upon statements by some Republican candidates that call for creation of an investment option under Social Security, recalling George W. Bush’s attempt to change the system.

It’s an extension of the Democratic strategy to link Republicans to provocative elements of the tea-party movement. Democrats are trying to alarm voters by implying that Republicans generally want to undermine the government program and make it subject to the vagaries of the stock market.

“As the midterm elections approach, Republicans continue to propose radical ideas – everything from privatizing Social Security to drastic benefit cuts to eliminating the program altogether,” said Brad Woodhouse of the Democratic National Committee.

Social Security reform is a dead issue on Capitol Hill this year, and most Republicans aren’t talking about it. Most voters in the aftermath of the Great Recession aren’t talking about it either.

Neither party is addressing the long-term fiscal health of this popular program, which has kept millions of senior citizens out of poverty for 75 years.

Social Security trustees have warned that the program will start paying more in benefits than it collects in payroll taxes this year for the first time since the 1980s. The trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2041 unless changes are made.

Bush acknowledged that his private investment proposal was not really a way to ensure long-term solvency. The idea was to give individuals an investment option as part of a larger reform.

Neither party wants to tackle the unpopular remedies needed to sustain the program, which almost certainly mean raising payroll taxes, trimming benefits or increasing the retirement age.

We will hear a lot of rhetoric about Social Security on Friday and over the next few weeks, but not much serious talk about how to keep it alive for younger generations.

McCollum rolls the dice with hard-line immigration stance

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 13, 2010 11:59 AM

JACKSONVILLE BEACH -- As he fought to keep his outgunned and disheveled bid for governor from falling apart this summer, Attorney General Bill McCollum has been able to lean on one rock-ribbed base of Republican support: Hispanic voters.

But now that polls suggest McCollum’s campaign has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Naples millionaire Rick Scott, he is taking a big risk -- launching a hard-edged Arizona-style immigration policy that is ostracizing some of his top Latino backers.

A survey commissioned by the Orlando Sentinel and other media released Friday shows the issue is potent within Republican ranks.

The Mason-Dixon poll found 81 percent of GOP voters likely to cast ballots in the Aug. 24 primary support the Arizona immigration law, which Scott was first to pounce on last spring. McCollum vacillated at the time, saying first the law was “far out there” but then deciding he supported an amended version of the law, and even filed court briefs defending the law in the Obama Administration’s federal court challenge.

But among Hispanic Republicans, support for an Arizona-style immigration law drops.

Only 54 percent of Hispanic GOP voters – who are overwhelmingly Cuban – support the Arizona law and 36 percent oppose it, although because the Hispanic sample size is relatively small, support for the law could be 10 percentage points higher or lower.

As McCollum spans the North half of the state in a four-day bus tour, he is straddling both ends of that ethnic divide.

“I support Arizona’s immigration law. A lot of people have questioned that in this campaign, but I do support the law,” McCollum told patrons Friday morning at the Bright Mornings Café in Fernandina Beach.

McCollum told the crowd he wanted Florida police to have directives to check the immigration status of people when they have a “reasonable suspicion” they are illegal during stops or arrests.

“The brouhaha that surrounds this law is far greater and exceeds the fundamentals that are in it.”

Meanwhile, his campaign was trying to hastily arrange a private conference call with Hispanic campaign backers who were put off that McCollum announced the plan this week without enough consultation with them – a mistake McCollum acknowledged Thursday.

McCollum clearly has more to risk than Scott by plunging into the issue in the primary’s fading days.

The same Mason-Dixon survey that found McCollum with a slight 34-percent-30-percent edge over Scott, found he had 57 percent support from Hispanic Republicans compared to 21 percent for Scott.

“McCollum’s got this one little segment of the base that is keeping him in the race, so he can’t afford to alienate them too much,” said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker.

But at once, the issue is rippling through the electorate as the fears over jobs and government spending abound.

Mary Lee French, 67, a retired teacher wearing a McCollum T-shirt at the Fernandina Beach café, asked McCollum about immigration “because of crime and because of workers.”

“It’s an economic thing,” she said. “We need these people to come in and help us, but it’s a mess.”

Brian Downey, 68, a retired businessman echoed the thought.

“We’re all immigrants. This country wouldn’t be what it is without immigration .But we all did it legally,” he said. “It’s an undue financial burden without a corresponding return.”

Nancy Acevedo, a Republican activist in Seminole County, said McCollum has more support from Hispanic Republicans in the state because many in the community have known him for years. He has been supportive of welcoming asylum immigration policies for Cuban immigrants and of efforts to decide on Puerto Rico’s status through plebiscites.

His harsher take on illegal immigration is a new side of the candidate that doesn’t scare her away, Acevedo said.

“People from the community who know McCollum understand that he is a very compassionate person who is sensitive to diversity issues,” said Acevedo, of Winter Springs.

“I don’t believe that at the end of the day he is going to support any law that would go to the extreme and would hurt the community.”

But Violeta Burgos, a former Republican who turned independent, said she had supported McCollum when he was her congressman and would have voted for him in the general election if he had not taken a harsh immigration stance.

“I have voted for McCollum several times before, but I’m not going to give him my vote this time so that he could use that support to mistreat our immigrants,” said Burgos, who is Puerto Rican and lives in east Orange County. “He could have all the political pressure in the world but that doesn’t mean that he has to let the extreme right take the party hostage.”

August 12, 2010

Wasserman Schultz moving on a leadership track

> Posted by William Gibson on August 12, 2010 02:58 PM

National political observers are abuzz with speculation that South Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz will take more of a leadership role in the Democratic Party and within Congress after this year’s mid-term elections.

The 43-year-old congresswoman may be on track to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which helps raise money and provide guidance to House candidates around the country.

Her frequent campaigning for fellow Democrats and her close ties to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other party leaders could boost her chances of chairing a key committee or rising in the House hierarchy.

The up-and-comer already serves a vice chairwoman for the Democratic National Committee and as a chief deputy whip for the House leadership. She also serves on the powerful Appropriations Committee.

Wasserman Schultz will be among party leaders who travel across the country this fall to campaign for vulnerable Democrats. She plans to promote the Democratic record and sound the theme that Republicans have formed an alliance with tea-party activists to pursue a radical agenda.

Wasserman Schultz brushes aside questions about her prospects.

“Oh God, I’m not focused on that at all,” she said in a recent interview. “I’m focused on retaining our majority – which I’m confident we will -- re-electing myself and talking to constituents in the 20th district. I’m hoping to come back and work hard on their behalf.”

Wasserman Schultz faces opposition to her re-election this year, but Republican leaders acknowledge they face an uphill struggle to unseat her.

Poll: McCollum shredding Scott's lead

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 12, 2010 11:59 AM

Florida’s barroom brawl of a Republican gubernatorlal race is turning voters off and helping Attorney General Bill McCollum overcome a once double-digit lead held by Naples millionaire Rick Scott, a new poll shows.

The Mason-Dixon survey commissioned by news organizations, including the Sun Sentinel, found McCollum with a slight 34-percent to 30-percent edge over Scott, with 33 percent of GOP voters undecided. But just a week ago, McCollum trailed Scott by 6 points – 31 percent to 37 percent -- in a Mason-Dixon poll taken for Leadership Florida.

However, the rising public disgust with both candidates sems to be playing strongly to the advantage of Alex Sink, the Democratic hopeful whom pollster Brad Coker now says “has a golden opportunity to recapture the governorship for the Democrats no matter who the GOP selects as their nominee.”

The results in the Republican race suggest that an axiom of modern politics is holding true this summer – negative ads work, at least up to a point.

In recent days, McCollum’s campaign has stepped up its attacks on Scott over his ties to the Columbia/HCA hospital chain – which was fined $1.7 billion for Medicare fraud in an investigation that began when Scott was CEO – as welll as lawsuits against another health-care company he founded called Solantic.

Scott has hit back calling McCollum a desperate “career politician” in $34 million in TV ads he and his family have paid for this summer, which has seen the percentage of Republican voters who view McCollum negatively increase from 11 percent in May to 30 percent in the new poll. But the survey showed Scott is now viewed negatively by 36 percent of GOP voters, up from just 1 percent in May and 33 percent last week.

“The bruising campaign has driven the unfavorable name recognition for both candidates to relatively high levels among their own party faithful,” Mason-Dixon pollster Coker wrote.

In an interview, Coker added that the dynamic of the campaign may be changing as both men head toward the Aug. 24 primary.

“I’m not sure it is all about the ads, but they are playing some role,” Coker said, noting that McCollum performed well in debates with Scott last week in Miami and Tampa. “I think McCollum’s debate performances, where he has had the opportunity to put Scott primarily on the defensive, has had an impact,” he said. He also described Scott’s decision to skip the Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association debate this week in Orlando “a major blunder.”

And down the homestretch, he said, McCollum’s negative ads may have an edge over Scott’s. “The ‘career politician’ tag is the national slogan de jour that could be getting run into the ground at this point,” he said, “while charges of financial misconduct are historically more damaging and maintain a longer shelf life.”

But the biggest beneficiary of the ad blitz – now at $47 million, including spending by both campaigns and stealthy political groups that are helping them – may be Sink.

The Democratic gubernatorial hopeful now leads both Republicans in a November matchup, the poll showed. She’s up by 2 percentage points over McCollum – though that 37-to-35-percent margin is within the poll’s 4-percent overall margin of error – and leads Scott by as whopping 16 percent, 40 percent to 24 percent. Independent Lawton Chiles III – son of the late Democratic governor – would take 13 percent of the vote if McCollum were on the ballot, and 17 percent if Scott ran.

Concluded Coker: The outcome of the Republican primary is far from determined with 33 percent still undecided, but it looks like Sink has a golden opportunity to recapture the governorship for the Democrats no matter who the GOP selects as their nominee.”

The poll interviewed a total of 625 registered Florida voters by telephone between Aug. 9 and 11 and also oversampled 400 likely Republican primary voters. The margin-of-error for the Republican primary voter sample was 5 percent, while the MOE for the overall poll is 4 percent.

McCollum gets a little taste of Big Sugar

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 12, 2010 08:00 AM

TALLAHASSEE – When Attorney General Bill McCollum started getting hammered by a blitz of television ads last April touting Republican gubernatorial primary foe Rick Scott, a powerful Capitol player came to his rescue.

Big Sugar.

The Clewiston-based U.S. Sugar Co. has steered in excess of $680,000 – and likely much more -- into ads helping McCollum blunt the wave of television advertising that Scott has financed with a $35-million infusion of his own personal wealth.

The cash infusion comes at a time when U.S. Sugar is struggling to find allies in Tallahassee for a land deal worked out with outgoing Gov. Charlie Crist that once promised to pay $2 billion to the company to "buy out" its sugar production facilities and land around Lake Okeechobee for Everglades restoration.

"We support people we think are going to be good leaders for Florida," said U.S. Sugar Vice President Robert Coker, who said he has known McCollum for 30 years and that the land deal wasn't a motivating factor for the company's political giving.

"McCollum is a longtime public servant who does what he thinks is right."

With election season in full bloom, Florida voters are being bombarded with television ads and leaflets designed and paid for by groups with vague, good-government-sounding names like the Florida First Initiative, Floridians for Truth in Politics and Floridians for Effective Leadership.

These so-called "electioneering communications organizations" – which can accept checks of unlimited amount and were re-authorized by an elections bill lawmakers passed last spring – have spent more than $18 million on TV ads, polling, voter-targeting, phone banks and mailers through last week, state campaign-finance data show.

Scott's own Let's Get to Work group, financed with $11 million of his family's money, accounts for more than $9 million in spending so far – a huge sum that has necessitated McCollum's own reliance on big checks from corporate donors, his campaign says.

Who's picking up the tab?

With few exceptions, they are interest-groups with an axe to grind or agenda to pursue in Tallahassee. McCollum's biggest backers are the business lobby, fellow Republican insiders in the Legislature, and companies like U.S. Sugar with business in the state capital.

August 11, 2010

McCollum’s immigration plan stirs retort

> Posted by William Gibson on August 11, 2010 06:15 PM

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum’s latest proposal to crack down on illegal immigration drew a sharp retort from South Florida Congressman Alcee Hastings.

Bill McCollum

McCollum, a Republican candidate for governor, unveiled a draft bill on Wednesday that would require police officers to check the immigration status of those who raise a “reasonable suspicion” of being here illegally.

The bill is similar to the controversial Arizona law, but McCollum said it would survive legal challenges by more specifically defining a reasonable suspicion when someone is stopped and questioned.

Hastings, a Democrat from Miramar, called it “a divisive plan that only polarizes the state of Florida.”

“The attorney general’s proposal is a clear political stunt, which raises questions as to his true motivation for delving into the issues surrounding immigration,” Hastings said.

“And why now?” asked Hastings. “Why add fat to the fire?”

“Our nation’s immigration system is in desperate need of reform, but enacting patchwork policies that conflict with existing federal laws and could lead to profiling and discrimination of all Floridians is not the answer,” Hastings said.

Hastings, who has tried to protect Haitian arrivals from deportation, has co-sponsored immigration-reform legislation that would provide a path to legal status for unauthorized immigrants.

Crist parties with Democrats in DC

> Posted by William Gibson on August 11, 2010 02:01 PM

Charlie Crist plans to party with Democrats Wednesday night to raise money for his independent campaign for the Senate.

Charlie Crist

But which party will he caucus with if he wins?

The hosts are Nancy Jacobson and Mark Penn, a couple of Democrats with strong ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Jacobson and Penn have invited guests to come to their home in Washington and contribute up to $4,800 a person, or $9,600 per couple, to the Crist campaign.

Crist’s spokesmen had little to say about the affair, which is closed to the press.

The governor is trying to have it both ways, or rather three ways. He hopes to attract Republicans, Democrats and independents.

Crist, who left the Republican Party in April, cited voter registration numbers that show a “continued sense and desire for people to have an independent voice.”

When pressed on Tuesday about whether he would caucus with Democrats or Republicans in the Senate, Crist remained coy.

“We’ll see,” he told reporters in Tallahassee. “What’s most important to me is that the people of Florida have a voice in Washington that cares about them first, instead of the party first.”

“The first thing is, I win,” he said. “All of this is hypothetical until that happens.”

If he wins, Crist the independent could be in a position to determine which party holds the Senate majority.

Or, once we know which party takes command, he could just go with the winner, take his place in the majority and get some good committee assignments and other favors.

“We’ll not know about that until after Nov. 2,” Crist said.

Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek, who is strongly backed by former President Bill Clinton, takes a dim view of Crist’s outreach to Democrats.

“No matter how hard Charlie Crist tries to run away from his conservative credentials, he remains a lifelong Republican,” Meek spokesman Adam Sharon said on Wednesday. “Kendrick will stand shoulder to shoulder with President Clinton and so many Floridians at rallies on August 16 in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.”

Governor Crist’s official mission to the nation’s capital was to compete for education dollars as part of the federal “Race to the Top Competition.”

He took part in a presentation to federal officials along with Miami-Dade County Public Schools Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, Florida Education Association President Andy Ford and Public Schools Chancellor Dr. Frances Haithcock.

“The presentation went very well, as we highlighted our significant reform efforts over the last decade and the tremendous progress those reforms have helped us to achieve,” reported Florida Education Commissioner Eric J. Smith.

August 10, 2010

State-aid bill will bring $1.3 billion to Florida

> Posted by William Gibson on August 10, 2010 03:55 PM

The House passed a state aid bill on Tuesday that will bring an estimated $1.3 billion to Florida and save nearly 9,000 school jobs.

The bill, already approved by the Senate, drew praise from Governor Charlie Crist and school officials in South Florida. Republicans in Congress accused Democrats of pushing through needless spending that will make states dependent on federal aid while adding to the national debt.

The bill passed 247 to 161, mostly along party lines.

Charlie Crist

“We need all the help we can get, especially in this economy,” Crist told reporters in Tallahassee. “It’s all about jobs, jobs, jobs.”

Broward County School Superintendent James Notter said he’s “absolutely ecstatic” that the federal government is “doing the right thing. It’s sorely needed for education across this nation.”

Broward expects to get about $54 million, which Notter said will allow him to rehire all of the 555 teachers laid off on July 1. He also expects to rehire more than 500 of the 737 non-instructional employees -- secretaries, bus drivers, custodians and maintenance workers -- who received pink slips as well.

Palm Beach County schools expect to get $38 million and plan to use it to prevent layoffs during the 2011/2012 school year.

“I can’t rule out layoffs for 2012, but $38 million would go a long way to help,” said Mike Burke, chief financial officer in Palm Beach County.

The bill goes to President Obama to be signed into law.

“We can’t stand by and do nothing while pink slips are given to the men and women who educate our children or keep our communities safe,” Obama said at the White House.

August 9, 2010

Klein seeks probe of Lebanon-Israel clash

> Posted by William Gibson on August 9, 2010 12:32 PM

Mobile crane used by Israelis to trim trees along Lebanese border (AP)

South Florida Congressman Ron Klein on Monday called for the State Department to determine whether Lebanon used American-supplied weapons to fire on Israel last week.

The clash occurred while Klein and five fellow members of Congress were meeting with Israeli leaders as part of a fact-finding visit to Israel and Afghanistan.

Violence erupted along a fence near the Lebanon border when Israelis used a crane to trim a tree they feared would provide cover for infiltrators.

The Lebanese army reportedly fired across the border, hitting an Israeli base nearby. Lebanese officials called it a response to Israeli aggression. Israel called it an unwarranted Lebanese attack.

Klein, a Democrat from Boca Raton, noted that the United States has provided weapons to strengthen the Lebanese army. He called for an investigation to determine whether these weapons were used in the clash.

“There are some severe consequences that should go along with that,” Klein said.

“The easy part is cutting off supplies,” he said. “The Lebanese government has a lot more to account for.”

Klein said an underlying purpose of the trip was to discuss potential threats posed by Iran. He said he met with soldiers from Florida during his stop in Afghanistan.

August 6, 2010

Big Business opens its wallet for McCollum

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 6, 2010 02:12 PM

The powerful Florida Chamber of Commerce broke with recent history and announced it was endorsing Bill McCollum last week in his hotly contested gubernatorial primary with Naples millionaire Rick Scott.

This week, the business group is backing up its blessing with its sizeable wallet, dropping some coin into pro-McCollum TV ads.

The Florida Chamber has bought $475,000 in cable and broadcast TV in Orlando, Tampa, Palm Beach and Jacksonville over the next two weeks, and will likely spend some more to help their preferred GOP nominee. The Chamber is spending most of its money in Orlando and Tampa, and the infusion boosts McCollum's total spending on ads to about $10.6 million. Scott, who is largely self-financing his campaign with at least $35 million of his own wealth so far, has spent about $30 million on ads thus far.

The administration contends that the unemployment picture would be worse if not for the stimulus.

The evidence indicates that stimulus spending saved a lot of government jobs and reduced layoffs by school districts but did not spur much hiring by employers in private industry.

Today’s political debate reverses the pattern when George W. Bush was president. At that point, Democrats were blaming a Republican administration for rising unemployment while arguing that its low-tax policy benefitted the rich at the expense of the middle class.

August 5, 2010

McCollum, Scott, guns ablazing

> Posted by Aaron Deslatte on August 5, 2010 09:09 PM

TAMPA – Florida’s bare-knuckle Republican gubernatorial primary hit prime-time Thursday as Bill McCollum and Rick Scott lambasted each other over tax votes and corporate fraud in their second – and likely last – debate ahead of the Aug. 24 primary.

In a television studio in Tampa, both men used their opening remarks to offer vague promises to create hundreds of thousands of new jobs, and then most of the next hour to bash each other.

Down in the polls and running out of cash, McCollum, Florida’s attorney general, accused Scott of being a business failure whose companies have created controversy and bilked taxpayers.

“How are you going to govern, if your companies committed fraud?” McCollum asked.

Scott, a wealthy Naples ex-CEO of health care giant Columbia/HCA, acted alternately dismissive and annoyed, claiming several times he was comfortably ahead in the polls and McCollum was lashing out because he was losing the primary despite his decades of building up political chits.

“As you can see, my opponent’s desperate. He’s way behind in the polls,” he said.

Because Scott has refused to debate McCollum at an Orlando debate next week set to be televised statewide, a majority of Florida’s 10 television media markets likely won’t see the two men with hard-hitting attack ads duke it out face-to-face.

Scott has objected to debating McCollum in his home turf of Orlando, demanding the Florida Press Association and other sponsors move it to Jacksonville. When sponsors attempted to oblige Scott, his camp objected because the forum would not be in front of a live audience.

In Thursday’s debate, hosted by Tampa FOX affiliate WTVT-Ch. 13, McCollum repeatedly ripped Scott over his ties to the company’s $1.7 billion in Medicare fraud fines. Scott was forced to resign from the company in 1997, after the FBI raided hospitals across the country, but as claimed he had no knowledge of the fraud.

“You were either incompetent running that company, or you were aware of it,” McCollum told Scott.

McCollum also lit into Scott over reports on another health care company he know owns called Solantic, which has faced numerous lawsuits from former employees.

Scott dismissed the Solantic lawsuits as the work of a “disgrunted former employee.”

“He must not like anybody who’s been in business, so I don’t know how he can run as a Republican,” Scott said.

He then turned the tables on McCollum, accusing him of voting for 42 tax and fee increases in Congress – a theme Scott’s campaign began striking in campaign ads statewide this week.

McCollum fumbled around trying to explain how he had voted for taxes as part of President Ronald Reagan’s economic package in 1987 and that “occasionally, you have to vote for a user fee.”

McCollum’s campaign quickly sent out to reporters a list of tax cuts he supported in Congress over his two decades there.

“Rick, you're being disingenuous. You're trying to mask the truth and now deflect from all the problems you’ve had at HCA. You’ve pivoted nicely,” McCollum said.

But the stumble was an opening for Scott to make use of the anti-incumbent sentiment rippling through the electorate nationally and in Florida.

McCollum has been trailing in the polls and dramatically outspent by Scott, who has invested at least $35 million of his own wealth into his from-out-of-nowhere campaign since April.

An Associated industries of Florida poll commissioned through McCollum’s pollster found him trailing Scott by seven points on Thursday.

Scott held 41 percent support among likely Republican voters while McCollum had support from 34 percent of those surveyed in the McLaughlin & Associates survey.

Curiously, both candidates dodged one major softball: which of the state’s college football teams do you support?

McCollum, a die-hard Florida Gator, demurred, saying he was supporting “conservative Republicans.” Scott, a resident of the state for only seven years and graduate of the University of Missouri-Kansas City, also declined to pick a side on the gridiron.

Bill Clinton to stump for Meek in South Florida

> Posted by William Gibson on August 5, 2010 03:03 PM

Former President Bill Clinton is headed to South Florida to campaign for his long-time traveling companion, Senate candidate Kendrick Meek.

Bill Clinton

Clinton will stump for Meek at rallies in Delray Beach, Davie and Miami on Monday, Aug. 16.

The Clinton connection reflects Meek's long-standing ties to the Democratic establishment, a plus for some primary voters and maybe a disadvantage for those tired of politics as usual. Clinton, a polarizing figure in the ‘90s, remains popular in South Florida’s Democratic strongholds.

“Together, we'll show Floridians that there is only one real Democrat in this race and only one candidate who knows what it means to fight for middle-class families," Meek said.

Coral Ridge Ministries blasts same-sex marriage ruling

> Posted by William Gibson on August 5, 2010 02:31 PM

Gay couples are celebrating in California, but Coral Ridge Ministries of Fort Lauderdale called a federal judge’s decision on same-sex marriage a judicial outrage in violation of civilized values.

The angry retort came in response to U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker’s decision on Wednesday that struck down California’s constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

Walker said the ban violates the constitutional right to equal protection. The ban “does nothing more than enshrine in the California Constitution the notion that opposite-sex couples are superior to same-sex couples,” he wrote.

Coral Ridge Ministries, a conservative Christian group in South Florida, lashed back.

“With courts turning traditional values into a form of ‘hate’ actionable under the law, we are seeing the criminalization of not only Christianity but of the foundational values of civilization itself,” said Robert Knight, a Washington representative for Coral Ridge Ministries, who helped draft a proposed Defense of Marriage Act.

“As the case heads to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, and eventually to the Supreme Court, Americans need to pray that the judges diligently seek wisdom before ruling,” Knight said.

August 4, 2010

Administration signals support for more food sales to Cuba

> Posted by William Gibson on August 4, 2010 04:16 PM

Cuba presents an “extraordinary opportunity” for American farmers to expand new markets for their goods, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk told a Senate committee on Wednesday.

Kirk’s remarks may indicate the Obama administration will back attempts to loosen one aspect of the U.S. embargo of Cuba.

lTrade Rep Ron Kirk

Many in Congress are eager to ease restrictions on food sales imposed by former President George W. Bush. Prodded by Cuban-American leaders from South Florida, Bush tightened the screws of the embargo in this and other ways to try to isolate the Castro regime and deprive it of a stream of revenue.

“As the trade embargo on Cuba approaches its 50th anniversary without having had a measurable impact on the behavior of the government of Cuba, it is high time that we consider alternative approaches,” said Senator Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat from Arkansas and chairwoman of the Senate agriculture committee.

She cited a study by Texas A&M University that says relaxing restrictions on trade with Cuba would generate $1.1 billion of commerce and create 6,000 jobs.

Another panel, the Senate appropriations committee, has approved a spending bill that would remove the requirement that Cuba pay in advance for buying food. That might sound like a minor change, but farmers say the financing restriction has been a major impediment to expanding the Cuban market.

The Obama administration already has eased the embargo, most obviously by removing restrictions on Cuban-Americans to visit and send money to their relatives on the island.

August 3, 2010

Wassserman Schultz launches cable TV show

> Posted by William Gibson on August 3, 2010 02:06 PM

Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz launched an on-demand cable TV show on Tuesday that promises to "go behind the scenes" to allow viewers to see her activities in Florida and Washington.

The 24/7 channel can be found through the “On Demand” button on the Comcast Cable remote control.

To watch, tune into “My Government” or “MiCongress” on Comcast Cable, channel 888. Or you can use the “On Demand” main menu, browse for the “Searchlight” folder and look for “My Government.”

"The videos you will find on your television explain my legislative priorities and our constituent service work,” said Wasserman Schultz, a Democrat from Weston. “They show what I’m doing and how it affects you.”

The service is a joint cooperation between iConstituent and cable providers available to all members of Congress.

LeMieux and budget experts to talk debt in Florida

> Posted by William Gibson on August 3, 2010 01:46 PM

Senator George LeMieux, who has made the national debt his main theme since taking office, will join national budget experts to talk about long-term fiscal solutions at public forums in Orlando and Tampa.

The experts include former U.S. Comptroller General David M. Walker and Concord Coalition Executive Director Robert L. Bixby.

The panel promises to discuss realistic solutions and answer questions from the audience.

It’s free, but attendance is limited. Those who want to take part should send an e-mail to rsvpevent@lemieux.senate.gov or call Christa Bailey-Allen at 866-630-7106.

Here are the when and where:

ORLANDO

WHEN: Wednesday, August 11th, 2010 @ 11:00AM
WHERE: University of Central Florida, Executive Development Center
Pine Street at Orange Avenue
*Event will be held in the Auditorium

TAMPA

WHEN: Wednesday, August 11th, 2010 @ 5:00PM
WHERE: Stetson University Tampa Law Center
1700 North Tampa Street, Tampa
*Event will be held in the Smith Courtroom

Meek launches positive TV ad

> Posted by William Gibson on August 3, 2010 10:59 AM

Still struggling to get better known to Florida voters, Senate Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek launched a positive bio ad on Tuesday called “My Life.”

The warm and fuzzy images depict the Miami congressman’s experience as a former state trooper and a lawmaker who favored restoration of the Everglades and opposed “privatization” of Social Security.

Meek’s first two TV ads attacked Democratic primary opponent Jeff Greene. This third one is all about Meek, who hopes to rally Democrats in the Aug. 24 primary before the general election campaign against Republican Marco Rubio and independent Charlie Crist.

The ad burnishes his long-standing party credentials by showing a photo of Meek with the late Senator Ted Kennedy.

One big question in the primary is whether Democrats will favor a solid member of the party establishment or turn instead to Greene, an outsider with neither the blessings nor burdens of political experience.

August 2, 2010

Wasserman Schultz hails child-porn crackdown

> Posted by William Gibson on August 2, 2010 01:39 PM

The U.S. Marshals Service is launching a nationwide child-pornography investigation targeting the 500 most dangerous sex offenders, Attorney General Eric Holder announced on Monday.

South Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- who sponsored legislation to intensify and pay for this kind of enforcement -- praised the Justice Department’s implementation of the law passed by Congress in 2008.

The announcement came with a progress report to Congress that indicates child pornography via the Internet is more widespread than previously known.

“Just three years ago, we believed that child pornography was being traded over approximately 500,000 unique IP addresses in the U.S,” Wasserman Schultz said at a press conference in Alexandria, Va. “Thanks to this report, we now know that number is more than 20 times our original estimate.”

Her bill – sponsored in the Senate by then-Sen. Joe Biden – authorized spending up to $1.05 billion over eight years to hire hundreds of federal and state investigators.

Wasserman Schultz – who noted that she is the mother of three young children -- took up the cause as part of her legislative priority of looking after the needs of young people.

She took the lead on this issue after former South Florida Congressman Mark Foley abruptly resigned in 2006. Foley pushed through legislation to toughen penalties for child pornography, but he left Congress in disgrace when the world learned he had sent e-mail to House pages full of sexual references and overly familiar questions.

Holder said his department will create a national database to allow federal, state, tribal, local and international law enforcers to share information and engage in undercover operations. The department also created 38 assistant U.S. attorney positions to focus on child-exploitation cases.

As part of its public-outreach, the Justice Department is re-launching ProjectSafeChildhood.gov, a website that provides information about enforcement efforts.

WILLIAM E. GIBSON, the Sun Sentinel’s Washington correspondent for 27 years, has covered seven presidential elections and 14 sessions of Congress, always with South Florida readers in mind.

Originally from the Kansas City area, he lived in New Mexico, New York and Fort Lauderdale before moving to Washington. Along the way, he studied journalism at the University of Kansas and Columbia University.