this is scary talks for steam fans like me. But this is really a skeptic situation I mean CSX turned this down and so should NS. If the deal goes through Hunter Harrison will under attack by two countries and earning a reputation of a monopolist and the justice department from Canada and USA and the CPRR would be broken up or this possible merger could ruin the CP financially 9.9/10 mega mergers are a failure. So I think it's a loose loose loose situation for the CP and NS. Me personally I don't think it will happen Wick Mooreman is a proud guy the deal goes through the downhill slide for the CP begins but that's just me

hamster

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:40 pm

Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 12:41 pmPosts: 461Location: Minneapolis, MN

I suspect that this will be a very hard sell to the U.S. federal regulators. And who knows, Congress might even get involved if the other U.S. Class 1's lobby against it very much. Foreign ownership may be a problem for the feds.

Lincoln Penn

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:49 pm

Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:40 pmPosts: 799

hamster wrote:

I suspect that this will be a very hard sell to the U.S. federal regulators. And who knows, Congress might even get involved if the other U.S. Class 1's lobby against it very much. Foreign ownership may be a problem for the feds.

Then how did CN get by with buying IC, WC, B&LE, DM&IR, and EJ&E??

railfan261

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:37 pm

Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 6:30 pmPosts: 215

This move would make zero sense, since CP just sold NS half (?) the Delaware & Hudson. Frankly, if you ask me, this is just a ploy to raise stock prices for both companies, so we can sleep well knowing that 611, 4501, 765, and company will have rails to roam on in 2016.

_________________Tony Held

superheater

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:00 pm

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 11:54 pmPosts: 1821

It may make zero sense to you, but the mere fact that NS has acknowledged it as possible was enough to drive up NS stock from 78 and change to 88 and change. I'm now not just in a short squeeze, but a short vice.

mspetersen

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:09 pm

Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:13 pmPosts: 62

You can blame the Fed actually. They've held interest rates so cheaply that the Merger & Acquisition business is booming as there's plenty of cash looking for a home these days. Retired folks get punished, but Wall Street makes out again. Besides that, with the US Business tax rate is so out of whack it make sense for many companies to be bought by an outside the US owner. It may not make perfect RR sense, but it does make financial sense and that 's what drives the world these days. Expect a UP/CSX linkup to follow if this happens.

Now near me, the railroad commodity near me which is the biggest is Automotive Parts & Automobiles for Detroit Metro Area. The Detroit Rail Market is 1 of 3 areas where areas where Conrail SA exists. The others being NYC/NJ & Phila/NJ. The reason Conrail was “Split” instead of totally out right “Merge/Taken Over” by either NS or CSX was to Preserve Competition. .

Detroit is considered an International Gateway for transcontinental traffic, mostly Chicago <-> Montreal aka “Canadian Corridor”. CP Rail has trackage rights over Norfolk Southern in order to reach Chicago by way though Michigan and Indiana.

Newly formed company doesn't want anything to do with steam at all, basically H.H. kills the 21st Steam Program. Discards anything relating to past companies at Norfolk Southern kills the Heritage Unit Diesel Program. That EL H-Unit might end up being the last NS H-Unit.

mspetersen ---You nailed it. The Fed is driving this.All that seems to matter these days is stockprices, and pleasing the big stockholders --nothing else.

steamfan765 ---Wick Moorman is no longer the CEO of NS. He is still on the NS Board, but will retire fromthat position at the end of this year. So -- I thinkit is fair to say that he has little to say about this possible merger.

Me? I detest these mergers, and would like to seealmost all of them reversed -- not just railroad mergers --but, then, I am just an ordinary person, and -- likeeveryone else like me -- of no importance to those who make these decisions.

About the future of steam excursions on the NS --A friend said long ago that people need to enjoy eachand every excursion, because every one could be the last one for that locomotive. So -- along those lines -- THANK you, EVERYONE inNS, for greatly helping the 611 get restored, and THANK you for letting her run again, AND for alsoletting the 765 and 4501 and 630 run.

dinwitty

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:20 am

Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:18 pmPosts: 2226

I tend to think monopoly laws may come into play here.

How much property do you think China owns in the US?

Overmod

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:24 am

Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 1:37 pmPosts: 1087

I think a primary reasoning behind this is an 'inversion' similar to what's just happened with Burger King and Tim Horton.

Very probable a secondary reason is to whack the day traders and make some short-term profits, the way Soros did with coal a few weeks ago.

Any perceived 'halo effect' from EHH being in charge won't survive to merger. He's 71 now, for heaven's sake. And I doubt CP has anyone in his league to take over effective management of the merged entity if it goes through.

The more interesting discussion: With traffic falling, does that decrease the effect of running steam on the main lines, or increase the desire to keep steam 'out of the way' of the trains that are left?

_________________R.M.Ellsworth

MRLX1020

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:16 am

Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:22 pmPosts: 69

[quote="Overmod"]

Any perceived 'halo effect' from EHH being in charge won't survive to merger. He's 71 now, for heaven's sake. And I doubt CP has anyone in his league to take over effective management of the merged entity if it goes through.

Don't forget about Keith Creel - who defected from CN to CP in order to follow Harrison, who it also turns out is his father in law... Apples like that can't fall far from the tree...

superheater

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:07 am

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 11:54 pmPosts: 1821

Ladies and Gents:

A little reminder about profit. Keep in mind a railroad is a business designed to make money, not to run trains. Managers have a LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY to maximize shareholder value. If you don't think so, that's fine, but don't whine when the investments in your 401k or Scottrade account aren't performing.

Now, discussions about the Fed and other political issues aside, what is relevant to preservation is that we have the potential to see an extraordinarily steam and preservation road friendly road gobbled up by a foreign road that has no use for steam, public excursions, heritage units or special moves-and as far as the pursuit of profit goes, I thought we were done with Calgary on September 18. I guess not.

As a stockholder (assuming I don't get called), I have no interest in this deal, no matter what the price. CP is fat with cash, but I think there are diseconomies of scale and adverse regulatory action as potential perils of such a deal, not to mention the normal issues with culture clash and IT systems integration.

Post Script: I just reviewed some basic financials. CP's price has fallen from 212 to 140 and the market cap is now 21B, whereas NS shares went from 117 to 72 (now 85) and market cap is 25B.

Last edited by superheater on Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.

dinwitty

Post subject: Re: News from Hell

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:14 am

Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:18 pmPosts: 2226

several eastern states adopted policies to promote railroad heritage, its a clear statement about the railroad history in the regions.

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