1/ For corn and beans the world demand curve faced by El Salvador
is also elastic at the market price. As a small country it can
export corn and beans at the world prices without affecting the
world price. These, as relatively non-perishable food items,
would enable El Salvador, if it were sufficiently productive, to
export excess grain either to neighboring Central American countries
or export on the world market.

-5

Latin America, under traditional methods of agriculture, there

exist customs that are not acceptable in a modern sense. The

proposed intensive management project is an attempt to combine

those elements of modern technology applicable to small farm a-

griculture with the intensive labor use needed to alleviate un-

employment in the rural areas while increasing rural income

possibilities.

Plantings of corn in El Salvador over the past ten years

have been relatively stable. First crop plantings during the

winter period represent about 90 percent of the total (see Table

1). The apante planting, while extremely important to a few farm-

ers, has historically been rather insignificant, accounting for

about 2 percent of the total plantings.

As can be seen from Table 1, over 250,000 manzanas of corn

are planted each year during the first part of the rainy season

(early winter).

Table II shows that there has never been more than 26,000

manzanas of beans planted during the winter (essentially August

--this among the cornstalks that were planted in May and June).

Thus, only about 10 percent of the early corn plantings

are utilized for the planting of beans. This is important, as over

200,000 manzanas of all corn planted is grown on small farms. This

land can be utilized! It is the primary purpose of the multiple

cropping project to intensify land use on these small farms during

this period.

(0

TABLE I

CORN PLANTING IN EL SALVADOR, TIMING AND AREA

Agricultural Years, 1962-63 to 1972-73

-MANZANAS
FIRST SECOND THIRD
YEAR PLANTING PLANTING PLANTING TOTAL
WINTER SUMMER APANTE
(May-June) (Oct-Nov) (July)

1962-63

1963-64

1964-65

1965-66

1966-67

1967-68

1968-69

1069-70

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

Increase or
Decrease

a/

a/

a/

254,300

267,457

241,095

251,400

241,300

268,280

269,200

257,000

+14,900

a/

a/

a/

15,740

23,223

25,000

27,000

28,500

20,150

23,900

28,000

+8,160

a/

a/

a/

5,780

5,920

8,000

6,950

7,500

5,770

7,200

7,800

1,420

283,594

246,686

236,792

275,820

296,600

274,095

285,350

277,300

294,200

300,300

292,800

+17,706

a/ Data not available.

TABLE II

BEAN PLANTING IN EL SALVADOR, TIMING AND AREA

Agricultural Years 1964-65 to 1972-73

MANZANAS
FIRST SECOND THIRD
YEAR PLANTING PLANTING PLANTING TOTAL
WINTER SUMMER APANTE

1962-63

1963-64

1964-65

1965-66

1966-67

1967-68

1968-69

1969-70

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

a/

a/

17,400

17,700

23,631

21,595

24,120

21,400

22,800

25,100

25,600

a/

a/

10,211

12,800

11,180

16,000

18,500

21,800

24,600

27,100

26,730

a/

a/

2,930

3,100

2,950

3,000

2,650

3,765

4,200

4,800

4,520

47,044

39,690

30,541

33,600

37,761

40,595

45,270

46,965

51,600

57,000

56,850

a/ Data not available.

For many crops there are limitations on the utilization of

certain production areas throughout the year. However, the potential

does exist for expanding production by additional plantings through-

out the year. There could be additional second and third plantings

--even more on corn land. These plantings would greatly expand the

production potential.

During 1975, thirty-two manzanas will be planted to experi-.'

mental intensive cropping plots. It is now planned that his area will

be expanded to 300 manzanas in 1976. This is an insignificant portion

of the total -- the potential exists for at least 200,000 manzanas to

be incorporated into an intensive management program.

A one year pilot project will also begin in the fall of

1975 to test a system to spread the use of intensive management system

on very small farms. This pilot project will be designed to evaluate

costs and benefits of the many variables related to small farmers.

They measure the effects of infrastructure, credit, land tenure,
and
technical assistance,/organization.

The program complements other existing and potential A.I.D.

strategies in agriculture, including the CENTA program, agrarian trans-
C.n s.'1'en t
formation, grain storage and stabilization, etc., and is also with the

.,14. The second most important motivational actor of the
Y'-Y& L Pec is the desire to educate hc! v children, even to
ptoressional levels. Lack of income is the only restraint in
their achieving this goal.
12. The diffusion process in El Salvador has been impressive.

The rural poor have managed to adopt modern techniques. So-much-

so in certain instances that one might suspect thme illegal

borrowing of imputs had taken place. The fact that El Salvador

has the highest yields dax in Central America fS4 the ,basic grains

supports the diffusion contention.

13. The rural poor are fatalistic in nature)but this is not

to say that they are irrational. They are typically not accustomed

to expect, or even aspire to, any considerable raising of ceilings
their
on ~UEsconsumption or social position. The rural poor in El
the SAc'$w tl4t
Salvador are also fatalistic in nature but they are ready for

increased consumption and social position. They will strive to
SS it.

The effectiveness of the appeal of this program is relative

to the aat-h need-satisfying regards. ( his principle

4McW, appl pame if material or even finaci&l wellbeing is held

constant.) The potential rewards of this program include prestige

and esteem within an acceptable system of social valuation. It

also includes the potentiality of decreasing hunger.

Over time we expect an increase in aspiration and the addition

of values associate~ with status mobility, merit evaluation, and

a realistic sense of choice and initiative. We also expect new

systems of social organizations and statification to which these

aspirations and values are appropriate. In other words, we expect

the rural poor (given the opportunity) to adopt this program at

a satisfactory rate.

0. Economic Analysis

The primary issue in the potential success of a

for corn and beans is the verification of

technical and economic feasibility. The technical aspects

of feasibility have been demonstrated in another section of

this paper. The verification of economic feasibility in El

Salvador is not possible. There are several general studies,

on multiple croppi available in the agricultural literature.

However, there are no studies, nor accurate data at this

time in El Salvador that could lead to measures of net in-

come and/or cost benefit. Preliminary data are available

from research carried out at CENTA during the past two years.

This data, along with the data which will be generated by

this project, will permit the USAID to evaluate (a) production

costs and yields utilizing existing "traditional" small plot

technology, and (b) production costs and yields utilizing

the proposed intensive farm management technology.

Even though there is a lack of data for Economic Analysis,

the : Vprogram can greatly expand the pro-

duction potential of El Salvador. With this in mind, the

following analysis is presented, using the meager data

available at this time.

Table III shows the estimates of the potential land

area which could be utilized in the pro-

gram. It also shows the estimated production that could be

derived, and the gross revenue which could be expected by

- 29-

the full realization of 'ieY\sive cropping techniques.

TABLE III

ESTIMATED AREA, PRODUCTION AND GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCT FOR
SELECTED CROPS THAT COULD BE DEVOTED TO MULTIPLE CROPPING.

Services (locally procured, short
term, not available thru Ministry) 3,000

Operational travel 3,000

Home office expense 2,000

Supplies (locally procured) 2,000

TOTAL $484,669

NOTES:

1/ Includes overhead and all other costs associated with personnel
except operational trave.

S2/ Procurement subject to prior written authorization of USAID/ES.

PROJECT DESIGN SUMMARY
Logical Framework

Project Title & Number:

Life of Project:
From FY to FY
Total U.S. Funding
Date Prepared

NARRATIVE SUMMARY OBJECTIVELY VERIFIABLE INDICATORS ____

Program or Sector Goal: The broader Measures of Goal Achievement: Assumptions for Achieving Goal Targets:
objective to which this project con-
tributes: Change in income and other Socio-Economic variables Institutional capability and Success in
research, education and extension.
- increase the Income of the rural Net farm income of producers of basic grains will
poor in El Salvador. increase an average of approximately 20 percent. institutional manpower stability and
equitable wage structures.
Subgoal: Increase food production Measures of Subgoal Achievement:
through intensive farm management stabilized or reduced population growth
practices. increased productivity of corn 10 percent annually, rate.

increased productivity of beans 8 percent annually. no appreciable decrease in area planted
to corn and beans.
increased productivity of vegetables 5% annually.

- new technology that will increase yield potential of
the basic food crops by 30 percent.

- GOES budget for MAG will be sufficient to sustain
projected level of activities.
- the number of extension-farmers demonstrations would
increase each year.
- extension agents utilizing findings.
- the number of small farms of viable size would increase.
- MAG effectively managing outputs.
- regional and on farm storage capacity increased by 50%.
- operational price stability system capable of effect
tively influencing the market for basic grains.
- sectoral planning and evaluation unit operational in
Ministry of Agriculture.

Assumptions for Achieving Purpose:

- that operational and capital budgets are
adequate to finance GOES counterpart and
personnel.

- markets exist for new production.

- that institutional credit is available when
needed.

- the GOES and MAG will develop its capabili-
ties in the needed areas of research and
extension.
- price/supply relationships will be adequate.
- input prices will be fairly stable at/or
near 1975 levels, and adequate supplies willV
- climatic conditions favorable.