Will Middlebrooks' current outburst approaches Mark Reynolds' nine-game surge from August 31 to September 8 last year when the streaky slugger posted a .364/.447/1.182/1.629 line with nine homeruns for the contending Baltimore Orioles.

Oh god please,Mark Reynolds and his 200 strike outs a year? Just sit back and enjoy the show, the kid is raking the ball. Who knows what he will be, Im hoping Jeff Bagwell. He is young and is developing at an amazing pace.

In the minors, Will Middlebrooks struck out more frequently than Mark Reynolds did in the minors.

Reynolds and Middlebrooks made their respective MLB debuts as 23-year-old same-size, same-handedness slugging thirdbasemen called up in May. Here are their stats for their first two MLB seasons:

MR0708 1027 PA, .255/.332/.473/.805, 101 BB (9.8%), 333 K (32.4%)

WM1213 592 PA, .262/.303/.476/.779, 30 BB (5.1%), 149 K (25.2%)

Jeff Bagwell turned 23 the month after he made his MLB debut as a firstbaseman for the Houston Astros. Here are Bagwell's stats for his first two seasons:

Will Middlebrooks' current outburst approaches Mark Reynolds' nine-game surge from August 31 to September 8 last year when the streaky slugger posted a .364/.447/1.182/1.629 line with nine homeruns for the contending Baltimore Orioles.

Oh god please,Mark Reynolds and his 200 strike outs a year? Just sit back and enjoy the show, the kid is raking the ball. Who knows what he will be, Im hoping Jeff Bagwell. He is young and is developing at an amazing pace.

In the minors, Will Middlebrooks struck out more frequently than Mark Reynolds did in the minors.

Reynolds and Middlebrooks made their respective MLB debuts as 23-year-old same-size, same-handedness slugging thirdbasemen called up in May. Here are their stats for their first two MLB seasons:

MR0708 1027 PA, .255/.332/.473/.805, 101 BB (9.8%), 333 K (32.4%)

WM1213 592 PA, .262/.303/.476/.779, 30 BB (5.1%), 149 K (25.2%)

Jeff Bagwell turned 23 the month after he made his MLB debut as a firstbaseman for the Houston Astros. Here are Bagwell's stats for his first two seasons:

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Fair points, but I think that says more about how top heavy their system was then! There was a drop off down to Reynolds. Also it's not very often a system hasthat many guys pan out. WMB may profile alike Reynolds forthe next ten years. But WMB was a much higher regarded prospect overall in all of baseball than Mark Reynolds anup up until now has scouted to be a better player with better tools......I'm not saying he will better than Reynolds, bt he very well may.

It does seem that Middlebrooks has been below average defensively but not a lot below. He can still develop into being an above average defender IMO. He has the tools. A lot of it is probably concentration and he is a player who has not played a lot of baseball in his lifetime, or at least as much as many prospects.

An intereting note is that he has never hit a triple in his mlb career. It's to a degree probably just a statistical aberation but my gut tells me the ball generally goes up when he hits it. He is a guy who has tremendous HR potential. He might have some 40 HR years as he is a RH free swinger with decent contact rates, in Fenway and he generates a lot of loft with his swings. That HR pop potential alone makes him a serious value and I don't see him lapsing into Mark Reyonolds territory in terms of strikeouts or average.

I think a lot of his problems this year were the rib injury. He had like 2 cracked ribs, a similar injury to what Ellsbury went through. And he tried to play through it. That probably affected his defense some too.

I'd like to see a lot better obp but when he starts regularly hitting HR at a 30-35 per year pace, I bet we see an uptick in that department eventually. I know that is a big, optimistic projection but look at his pop and the guy has 29 HR now in his first 152 games played. It is not unreasonable to think he might develop into major power. He is still very young. I'm not saying 30-40 HR per year for the next 10 years but he probably has at least 2-3 years in that range and it could be higher.

I'd like to see a lot better obp but when he starts regularly hitting HR at a 30-35 per year pace, I bet we see an uptick in that department eventually. I know that is a big, optimistic projection but look at his pop and the guy has 29 HR now in his first 152 games played. It is not unreasonable to think he might develop into major power. He is still very young. I'm not saying 30-40 HR per year for the next 10 years but he probably has at least 2-3 years in that range and it could be higher.

Middlebrooks since returning from AAA has been a different hitter. In the 25 games since returning with 90 plus plate appearance, which is not significant sample size, but is large enough to conclude that the changes he's made in his approach and his stance have netted good results. While I don't expect him to be able to sustain his hall of fame stat line since his return 350-420-583-1003, if you look inside the numbers. What is very encouraging is his ability to put the bat on the ball and he's also taken his share of walks....with 19 strikeouts in 95 PA since his return over 550 PA would put him on pace to strikeout 110 times...His 11 walks in that same period over 550 PA has him on pace to Walk 64 times.

In a game of adjustments young Middlebrooks has shown that he has the ability to do so. Now the Scouts will be looking for another whole they can exploit. In the end it's on Middlebrook's to keep working with the hitting instructor and put the bat on the ball...if he does it's really on him to set and achieve what his ceiling is...he has all of the tools....

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

through the system), Gomes and Drew. It is easy to see how a player will perform, just look at his stats in the minors.

I think many would take Middlebrooks MILB stat line (.275/.332/.455/.787) over the length of his MLB career. Which compares favorable to that of Mike Lowell who in 13 seasons finished with a .279/.342/.462/.804 career stat line. He's not in the same league with the glove as Lowell, but with work can improve enough not to be a liability. If they move him to 1B as has been suggested his MILB stats are also close to those posted by Kevin Millar over his MLB career (.274/.358/.452/.810).

The greater point I'm trying to make is that Middlebrooks doesn't have to be a perrenial All Star or the next coming of Mike Schmidt to be a productive major league player. In the end if he can simply sustain his current approach and stay disciplined in the strike zone there's no reason the kid can't have a long and productive career. No need to continue to try to fit him in a box, he'll find his own way and in the end if he wants to play big league ball into his late 30's he will continue to work hard and make the nessesary adjustments until father time robs him of his ability to hit a round ball, with a round bat, squarely.

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

through the system), Gomes and Drew. It is easy to see how a player will perform, just look at his stats in the minors.

Out of the thousands of players who have broken into the majors you gave me nine. You can't read too much not minor league stats. Any scout or talent evaluator will tell you that.

Not that stats are meaningless, it's just that in MILB these kids are still moving up the learning curve, and you can't really project what type of career someone will have from their minor league stats.

Teams and organizations look at the tools. They don't look into the stats too much because you have an unfinished product. The book is still out on WMB, but he's shown us flashes of greatness and he was a highly regarded prospect for a reason.

Of course a majority of MLB players will have a good MILB track record, but that is not always the case. Often the numbers aren't there with a player but the scouts tell us they will be really good. Sometimes the scouts are wrong and sometimes you get a guy like Hanley Rameriz

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

through the system), Gomes and Drew. It is easy to see how a player will perform, just look at his stats in the minors.

Out of the thousands of players who have broken into the majors you gave me nine. You can't read too much not minor league stats. Any scout or talent evaluator will tell you that.

Ct,

Not sure I completely agree. It is those stats that ultimately are used as a barometer of a players ability to succeed at the next level. Among many other tangibles. I do agree that players can improve and in many cases regress when facing advanced hitters and pitchers.

In the case of Middlebrooks, he was promoted dispite some troubling strikeout to walk ratios. Then after being promoted last year his k rate improved and his stock rose. After injuring himself and missing significant time, came back and struggled to handle the ball on the outer half from that point until he was sent down this year his k rate was cause for concern. Which are the numbers that Hill continues to use to illustrate his comparison to Reynolds. Since returning he's made the adjustment and is squaring up the ball with more consistency. If he can sustain his current approach and continues to handle the ball on the outer half. There's no reason to believe he can't become a more than serviceable big leaguer and ultimately improve on his minor league numbers. Personally, I don't think that .280/.350/.450/.800 is all that lofty of a goal for him based on his MILB numbers alone.

It's all about making adjustments and clearly the kid understands that and has proven the ability to do so...

Fair points, but I think that says more about how top heavy their system was then! There was a drop off down to Reynolds. Also it's not very often a system hasthat many guys pan out. WMB may profile alike Reynolds forthe next ten years. But WMB was a much higher regarded prospect overall in all of baseball than Mark Reynolds anup up until now has scouted to be a better player with better tools......I'm not saying he will better than Reynolds, bt he very well may.

I would be reluctant to label a farm system with Brett Anderson ranked 10th a "top heavy" system. Anderson peaked two years later as Baseball America's seventh-ranked prospect overall.

In 2012, those same Baseball America scouts ranked Will Middlebrooks eight slots behind same-age, same-handedness slugging thirdbaseman Mike Olt, who has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Middlebrooks.

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

Fair points, but I think that says more about how top heavy their system was then! There was a drop off down to Reynolds. Also it's not very often a system hasthat many guys pan out. WMB may profile alike Reynolds forthe next ten years. But WMB was a much higher regarded prospect overall in all of baseball than Mark Reynolds anup up until now has scouted to be a better player with better tools......I'm not saying he will better than Reynolds, bt he very well may.

I would be reluctant to label a farm system with Brett Anderson ranked 10th a "top heavy" system. Anderson peaked two years later as Baseball America's seventh-ranked prospect overall.

Ok but how did it look after the top 10? My point was WMB was ranked 51st in all of baseball while Reynolds never was a top 100. Ok he was in a good system, but how did he ranks against the rest of all of baseball?

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

through the system), Gomes and Drew. It is easy to see how a player will perform, just look at his stats in the minors.

Out of the thousands of players who have broken into the majors you gave me nine. You can't read too much not minor league stats. Any scout or talent evaluator will tell you that.

Ct,

Not sure I completely agree. It is those stats that ultimately are used as a barometer of a players ability to succeed at the next level. Among many other tangibles. I do agree that players can improve and in many cases regress when facing advanced hitters and pitchers.

In the case of Middlebrooks, he was promoted dispite some troubling strikeout to walk ratios. Then after being promoted last year his k rate improved and his stock rose. After injuring himself and missing significant time, came back and struggled to handle the ball on the outer half from that point until he was sent down this year his k rate was cause for concern. Which are the numbers that Hill continues to use to illustrate his comparison to Reynolds. Since returning he's made the adjustment and is squaring up the ball with more consistency. If he can sustain his current approach and continues to handle the ball on the outer half. There's no reason to believe he can't become a more than serviceable big leaguer and ultimately improve on his minor league numbers. Personally, I don't think that .280/.350/.450/.800 is all that lofty of a goal for him based on his MILB numbers alone.

It's all about making adjustments and clearly the kid understands that and has proven the ability to do so...

I agree, and WMB looked better in the upper minors. I'm not suggesting that players with horrible stats get promoted. Im saying stats are not very indicative of what a player will do at the next level. Sometimes his numbers fade as the player hits a developmental wall and sometimes that is an inherent ceiling, while sme players get better.

Also we can't just take someone's MiLB stats and say see.....this is what this guy will do in MLB because he did it in over 1,000 at bats. We cannot weigh what a player does in the gulf coast league or the carolina league equally with what he does in the international league and the Eastern league. Stats in the upper minors may bI somewhat indicative of what kind of player a guy can be in the major leagues but anything below AAis nothing to put any serious weight behind.

Fair points, but I think that says more about how top heavy their system was then! There was a drop off down to Reynolds. Also it's not very often a system hasthat many guys pan out. WMB may profile alike Reynolds forthe next ten years. But WMB was a much higher regarded prospect overall in all of baseball than Mark Reynolds anup up until now has scouted to be a better player with better tools......I'm not saying he will better than Reynolds, bt he very well may.

I would be reluctant to label a farm system with Brett Anderson ranked 10th a "top heavy" system. Anderson peaked two years later as Baseball America's seventh-ranked prospect overall.

Ok but how did it look after the top 10? My point was WMB was ranked 51st in all of baseball while Reynolds never was a top 100. Ok he was in a good system, but how did he ranks against the rest of all of baseball?

At the time of Baseball America's pre-2007 rankings, the Arizona farm system also had Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer, Gold Glove winner Gerardo Parra, Oakland righthander Jarrod Parker and Houston slugger Chris Carter, all of whom eventually were Baseball America Top 100 prospects despite not being ranked among the Diamondbacks' Top 10 in 2007.

A lot of thought and analysis really shouldn't go into minor league stats, a mantra often preached by MLB scouts is that the scouting is always ahead of the stats.

Mark Reynolds never ranked higher than #7 in the diamondbacks system and never broke baseball Americas top 100. Meanwhile Will Middlebrooks was ranked 51st by baseball America and was the sox 1st in 2011.

Im not saying that Will Middlebrooks will have a better career, but he has the tools to be a better player. The jury is still out and there aren't enough MLB stats to draw any finite conclusions. But I do know he has more of a shot at this stage in his career to be an above average MLB player and while it's a SSS right now he is definitely just that. He had some nagging injuries at the beginning of the year and perhaps that shouldn't eliminate his bad start, but maybe to a certain extent it explains them.

Minor league stats are a great predictor of MLB performance, especially for offense.

through the system), Gomes and Drew. It is easy to see how a player will perform, just look at his stats in the minors.

Out of the thousands of players who have broken into the majors you gave me nine. You can't read too much not minor league stats. Any scout or talent evaluator will tell you that.

Ct,

Not sure I completely agree. It is those stats that ultimately are used as a barometer of a players ability to succeed at the next level. Among many other tangibles. I do agree that players can improve and in many cases regress when facing advanced hitters and pitchers.

In the case of Middlebrooks, he was promoted dispite some troubling strikeout to walk ratios. Then after being promoted last year his k rate improved and his stock rose. After injuring himself and missing significant time, came back and struggled to handle the ball on the outer half from that point until he was sent down this year his k rate was cause for concern. Which are the numbers that Hill continues to use to illustrate his comparison to Reynolds. Since returning he's made the adjustment and is squaring up the ball with more consistency. If he can sustain his current approach and continues to handle the ball on the outer half. There's no reason to believe he can't become a more than serviceable big leaguer and ultimately improve on his minor league numbers. Personally, I don't think that .280/.350/.450/.800 is all that lofty of a goal for him based on his MILB numbers alone.

It's all about making adjustments and clearly the kid understands that and has proven the ability to do so...

I agree, and WMB looked better in the upper minors. I'm not suggesting that players with horrible stats get promoted. Im saying stats are not very indicative of what a player will do at the next level. Sometimes his numbers fade as the player hits a developmental wall and sometimes that is an inherent ceiling, while sme players get better.

Also we can't just take someone's MiLB stats and say see.....this is what this guy will do in MLB because he did it in over 1,000 at bats. We cannot weigh what a player does in the gulf coast league or the carolina league equally with what he does in the international league and the Eastern league. Stats in the upper minors may bI somewhat indicative of what kind of player a guy can be in the major leagues but anything below AAis nothing to put any serious weight behind.

I concur, each level of development comes with challenge for every player. There are a lot of factors that need to be weighed. Lars Anderson is one that comes to mind, he was a can't miss prospect through AA but found his ceiling against more advanced pitching in AAA. Today is a fringed player that might one day get a cup of coffee and be relegated to being a career AAAA platoon type...the landscape is littered with guys like him.

Josh Reddick is another who's minor league numbers in AAA have somewhat tranfered to his big league stats, clearly the kids has tools, but never has learned to be disciplined in the strike zone. Which is why he's was traded to Oakland and why he'll always be a platoon type and a streaky hitter. His glove and bat make him a viable big leaguer...if he wasn't a gold glove quality OF with pop he'd likely be a AAAA type too...