New poll shows Dewhurst just short of a majority at 46 percent

Texas Senate race

In the final days of the Texas Senate primary campaign, the major question for political junkies is this: Can David Dewhurst win the majority necessary to avoid a runoff.

Every poll shows him in the lead. But no public poll has him at the magic 50 percent mark.

A new poll released today shows the lieutenant governor enticingly close, however. The Public Policy Polling survey showed Dewhurst at 46 percent, followed by former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz at 29 percent and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert at 15 percent.

For Dewhurst, the doubly good news is that PPP has him gaining ground on Cruz in the past month (from a 12-point lead to 17).

In addition, PPP found that Dewhurst leads Cruz in a head-to-head matchup, 59 percent to 34 percent. That’s because Leppert voters prefer Dewhurst over Cruz, 77 percent to 13 percent.

“I think if we’re fortunate enough to end up next Tuesday night with over 50 percent of the vote, I’m going to be very grateful,” Dewhurst said after an event at Austin’s Scholz Garten.

Cruz, in an interview with Texas on the Potomac, dismissed the poll as “an outlier” and said called the primary “a single-digit race.” What’s more, he expressed confidence he would win a runoff with Dewhurst.

“If we go to a runoff, we win this race,” Cruz said. “We will win decisively.”

His reasoning: “Turnout will drop significantly” in a runoff, and he will be the favorite of “hard-core conservative voters.”

The latest poll bears out Cruz’s logic. According to PPP, 49 percent of Cruz’s voters are “very excited” about voting for him, compared to 27 percent of Dewhurst’s supporters. Among “very excited” Republican voters — those most likely to show up on primary day — Cruz led Dewhurst, 42 percent to 37 percent.

“That pro-Cruz enthusiasm gap won’t be enough to put him in first place on Tuesday,” said PPP president Tom Jensen, “But if he does force a runoff it could give him a fighting chance in a low turnout election further down the line.”