U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., a member of the House Republican leadership, faces a strong test from Democrat Lisa Brown in her Eastern Washington district.

U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., a member of the House Republican leadership, faces a strong test from Democrat Lisa Brown in her Eastern Washington district.

Photo: JIM WATSON, AFP/Getty Images

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Lisa Brown was majority leader in the state Senate and lately has served as chancellor of Washington State University-Spokane.

Lisa Brown was majority leader in the state Senate and lately has served as chancellor of Washington State University-Spokane.

Photo: Meryl Schenker, Seattle Post-Intelligencer

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Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., has served in the House Republican leadership under two House speakers. She is pictured with former Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., has served in the House Republican leadership under two House speakers. She is pictured with former Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.

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House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., (right) has already come to the aid of House Republican leadership colleague Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash. The Ryan political action committee (PAC) has opened a field office in Spokane. less

House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., (right) has already come to the aid of House Republican leadership colleague Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash. The Ryan political action committee (PAC) has opened a field ... more

Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

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Connelly: Poll has challenger in reach of Rep. McMorris Rodgers

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The campaign arm of the Democratic Party has reached into Eastern Washington and come away convinced that an upset of U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., is within reach.

McMorris Rodgers, a member of the House Republican leadership, is narrowly ahead of Democratic challenger Lisa Brown, 47 percent to 43 percent, in a poll of 401 likely voters, taken for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Feb. 3.

The 5th Congressional District leans Republican. It has not elected a Democrat to Congress since then-House Speaker Tom Foley won his last term in 1992. Foley was upset in 1994 by Republican George Nethercutt, who was succeeded a decade later by McMorris Rodgers.

But the district is vulnerable to "wave" elections. It ousted Republican Rep. Walt Horan in the Democrats' 1964 landslide. Thirty years later, in the Republican year of 1994, Foley became the first sitting House speaker since 1860 to lose his bid for re-election.

The poll did a number of tests. In a generic matchup, without names, the Republican candidate has a single-point lead of 43-42 percent over the Democrat.

President Trump carried the 5th District in 2016 and received a rousing reception in Spokane. The poll found him with a 44 percent job-approval rating, with an equal 44 percent disapproving of the job done by the 45th president.

Candidate and party polls deserve skepticism. They are made public when results are upbeat and put in deep storage when numbers are discouraging. Both parties play the game. Republicans have spent years giving out -- and withholding -- results of Moore Information surveys.

But the Democrats may be accurate in sniffing a trend.

Prominent, partisan and very conservative, McMorris Rodgers is the face of Trump policies in Washington state. She was a relentless advocate for repealing Obamacare and has created a Twitter storm of tweets supporting the Republicans' tax-cut plan.

The seven-term House member endorsed Trump in Washington's 2016 primary. As head of the House Republican Conference, McMorris Rodgers has hosted his appearances before her colleagues. She was a finalist for U.S. Interior secretary in the Trump cabinet.

McMorris Rodgers has never won less than 55 percent of the general election vote. In a multi-candidate 2016 primary, however, she was held to only 42.18 percent of the vote.

The Democrats' poll found that 39 percent of those surveyed approve of the job McMorris Rodgers is doing in Congress, while 45 percent disapproved.

Lisa Brown was, until recently, chancellor of Washington State University-Spokane. She lobbied to get WSU its new medical school. She is a former legislator and state Senate majority leader.

Opinions of Brown have yet to form, according to the poll. A total of 26 percent had a favorable view of the Democratic challenger, 18 percent unfavorable. Republicans are already making a too-liberal-for-Eastern Washington argument, a generic version of what they try to pin on Democratic candidates across America.

The Democrats are roused. They drew 459 people to a candidate training session in Spokane last month, and crowds of more than 100 at similar sessions held in Walla Walla and Pullman.

The political action committee (PAC) of Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan has taken notice and opened an office in Spokane.

Pollster Stuart Elway has described Brown as "the strongest test that McMorris Rodgers has had," but emphasized that the district still has strong Republican leanings.

Sentiment has grown, among Washington political watchers, that the 5th District is in for a more interesting race than the 8th District, where Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is retiring. Multiple Democrats are running in the 8th, while Republicans have united behind former state Sen. Dino Rossi.

The DCCC's poll, taken Feb. 3, used both land lines and cellular phones. It has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.8 percent.

Columnist Joel Connelly has written about politics for the P-I since 1973.