07/05/08 "ICH"
-- - These are
interesting
times.With oil
trading above
$100/barrel, a
larger portion
of our national
wealth is being
spent on the
cost of energy.

We are very near
or already at
what geologists
call peak oil.Peak oil
is the point at
which the
maximum rate
that oil can be
extracted from
the earth’s
crust can only
relentlessly
decline from
that point
forward, due to
geological and
technological
realities.Prior to
peak oil it was
usually possible
to extract as
much oil as we
needed to meet
growing demand
while keeping
prices
relatively low.After
peak oil it will
be impossible to
do that.From now
on, oil will
become
increasingly
scarce.The black
gold will still
be allocated
according to
price, but as
supplies dwindle
and prices
increase, more
and more people
will become less
affluent, i.e.,
poorer than they
used to be.The age
of cheap energy
is over.
Unfortunately,
soon this will
be true for all
non-renewable
resources as
well.

This means that
our economy,
which runs on
oil, will not be
able to sustain
past levels of
growth
indefinitely, if
at all.Pundits
on TV are
discussing how
long it’s going
to take before
the current
recession will
turn around and
we come out the
other side ready
for the next
round of growth.In my
view, this
recession is not
going to end any
time soon and
without
appropriate
leadership it
might not end in
our lifetimes.The
result might
easily look like
an economy in
the middle of a
very long slow
motion train
wreck.

If this sounds
like a dire
prediction, it
doesn't have to
be... but it
very well might
be.
Americans, in
general, seem
averse to
contemplating
reality.Up until
now it’s been
easy to get away
with it, for as
long as energy
was cheap we
were all free to
pursue personal
interests and
put most
everything else
out of our
minds.But soon
reality is going
to confront us
at every turn.
For some, it's
already
happening.

For example,
without cheap
oil our food
supply will
begin to
contract.American
corporate
agriculture runs
on oil.It takes
oil to prepare
the earth, it
takes oil to
fertilize the
fields, it takes
oil to harvest
the crops, it
takes oil to
kill the bugs,
it takes oil to
ship the
produce, it
takes oil to
keep things
cold, and it
takes oil to
cook our food.
Meanwhile, bees
are dying, bats
are dying, while
our oceans are
being
over-fished,
polluted with
non-biodegradable
plastics, and
poisoned with
PCBs and other
chemicals.

Now consider,
the cost of fuel
is not going to
go down except
for short-term
market
fluctuations.Producing
energy efficient
cars will help,
but our oil
based,
combustion
engine based
economy, is
coming to a
close.
Replacement
technologies are
not in place and
it takes time to
build
infrastructure.The
longer we delay
the development
of enlightened
energy and
transportation
strategies, the
longer and
deeper economic
dislocations
will be.

A lot of people
don’t have much
money now and
they have less
credit and are
less credit
worthy than they
used to be.We are
the only
industrialized
nation with a
zero to negative
savings rate.Very few
industries do
not in some way
depend on energy
and at the same
time nearly
every
corporation in
America is
committed to
growing their
profits at
double-digit
rates.There is
not going to be
double-digit
growth in
America.If
significant
growth occurs it
will probably
take place in
emerging markets
but only to the
extent that
energy allows.In the
US, where
citizens,
government, and
corporate
executives are
somewhat
delusional,
without society
reinventing
itself, the
economy will
decline or
stagnate.You can
argue these
points with me,
and I'm always
open to it, but
in the end,
reality will
settle the
argument.

As corporate
executives
confront this
reality, one can
only imagine
what kinds of
strategies they
will use to try
to insure their
double-digit
goals.Their
strategies have
been evolving
for a long time.Look how
much effort and
money they
expend
corrupting
government
policy and
officials with
their teams of
lawyers and
lobbyists.Why do
they do that?Because
they don’t know
how to earn
double-digit
growth
legitimately.The only
way they can do
it is to dip
into our pockets
and extract our
wealth through
deceit,
corruption and
back door
government
collusion.

Peak oil has
been kept a
corporate and
government
secret since
1956.We could
have been
planning for it
all along had
not a
cadre of
corporate and
government power
brokers diverted
our public
wealth into
their self
serving
strategies.

So now we have
some very severe
problems facing
us.From
government we
get lies,
secrecy, and
obfuscation to
prevent what
citizens
might do if we
only understood
how we’ve all
been cheated.

Officials are
not stupid or
uninformed… They
know and accept
that we are in
Iraq to control
resources.They knew
if they had told
us what they
were up to in
the beginning,
we wouldn’t have
let them get
away with
defacing the
Constitution,
murdering a
million people
and injuring and
displacing
millions more to
take control of
the oil.They
sugar coat and
lie now about
almost
everything they
do.No matter
what the
politicians tell
you, we are not
leaving Iraq, at
least not until
we are sure that
we will have
certain
unfettered
access to the
oil… or until we
have some
enlightened
leadership.

It’s important
to understand
this:If we
approach these
problems with
anger, fear, and
knee jerk
responses, we
will surely make
things much
worse.And yet
for an awful lot
of people, that
will be the
initial response
to being
confronted with,
and being
awakened by--
reality.The
problems we face
are solvable.Human
beings are
capable of great
creativity,
compassion, and
sacrifice.But we
can’t solve
problems if we
are afraid to
talk about them,
and we can’t
manifest a
creative
environment for
developing
solutions if we
are afraid to
tell the truth.The truth
about what?In this
case, the truth
about
everything!It should
be obvious by
now, that you
can’t lie about
some things and
expect that
those lies will
not eventually
poison or
corrupt most
everything else.The
health and well
being of every
human soul is in
some way
dependent,
interconnected
and related to
ever other.

We can’t arrive
at optimum
solutions if we
are so afraid to
think for
ourselves
and examine our
preconceived
ideas and
accepted
myths.I don’t
think we will be
able to find
meaningful
solutions to the
problems we
face, unless the
great majority
of us become
willing to
change our
interests, our
habits, and our
attitudes.This is
not going to be
easy.

At first, very
few politicians,
corporate
executives, or
religious
leaders will
look kindly on
the prospect of
examining the
delusions and
myths we grew up
with. In fact
they will
probably go to
any extreme to
tell you what
I’m saying is
just a lot of
nonsense.No one
who has
influence and
power over
others will want
to give it up.But make
no mistake… as
Dr. Barlett1
says, the
problems are all
going to get
solved… the only
question is how
painful is it
going to be and
will these
problems get
solved with any
semblance of
compassion,
justice and
fairness?

If we attempt to
look out only
for ourselves,
we can be pretty
sure that’s what
others will do
too.And if we
do that, I can
assure you, the
suffering will
be
unprecedented.We are
all members of
one family.We need
to remember that
and realize that
every one of us
has a stake in
finding viable
solutions, where
no one is left
out, and where
no one will be
asked or be
required to
sacrifice their
basic rights
or dignity.

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