Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
Eastern Daylight Time.
Statement of
Kathleen P. Utgoff
Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, August 6, 2004
The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5
percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment was little
changed (+32,000). Since August 2003, nonfarm payroll
employment has risen by 1.5 million; about three-fifths of
this growth occurred during March, April, and May of this
year. In July, employment gains in health care and social
assistance and in professional and business services were
partly offset by a decline in finance and insurance.
Health care and social assistance added 20,000 jobs in
July; employment in the industry has risen by 292,000 over
the year. Over the month, job growth continued in
ambulatory health care services, hospitals, and child day
care services.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and
business services (+42,000) in July. This sector has added
622,000 jobs since its most recent low in March 2003.
Employment in temporary help, which provides workers to
other industries, has changed little since May. Temporary
help employment had increased by 293,000 from April 2003
through May 2004.
Employment in finance and insurance decreased by 25,000
in July, with the largest job loss (-16,000) in credit
intermediation. The decline in credit intermediation, an
industry that includes mortgage brokerages, largely offset
the employment gain of 21,000 during the first half of 2004.
Security and commodity brokerages also shed jobs over the
month.
In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment
edged up in July (+10,000), after showing no movement in
June (-1,000, as revised). The sector has added 91,000 jobs
since January, with virtually all of the gain in durable
goods manufacturing. Over the month, employment grew in
machinery, computer and electronic products, and furniture.
Employment in transportation equipment fell in July
(-21,000), due to larger-than-usual shutdowns in auto and
parts plants for annual retooling. The factory workweek
edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours and factory overtime, at
4.6 hours, was unchanged.
Mining employment continued to trend up in July. Since
April 2003, the industry has added 29,000 jobs. In July,
construction employment was flat for the second month in a
row, after adding an average of 18,000 jobs per month from
March 2003 through May 2004.
Average hourly earnings for private production or
nonsupervisory workers rose by 5 cents over the month,
following a 2-cent increase in June. Over the year, average
hourly earnings grew by 1.9 percent.
Turning now to information from our survey of
households, the unemployment rate and the number of
unemployed persons were essentially unchanged in July, at
5.5 percent and 8.2 million, respectively. After declining
during the second half of 2003, the jobless rate has shown
little movement since December. The labor force
participation rate rose in July to 66.2 percent.
The trend in employment growth depicted by our
household and establishment surveys had been roughly similar
for over a year but the employment series from the two
surveys showed a large divergence in July. As measured by
the household survey, employment rose by 629,000 over the
month, compared with a change of 32,000, as measured by the
establishment survey. Even after adjusting household survey
employment to make it conceptually similar to the
establishment survey measure, household survey employment
increased by 434,000 in July.
The estimate of over-the-month change in employment
from the establishment survey is less volatile than that
from the household survey for a variety of reasons. The
establishment survey has a much larger sample. Moreover,
the household survey is not designed to optimize the
measurement of month-to-month employment change, but rather
to optimize the accuracy of the unemployment rate--something
that cannot be measured from the establishment survey.
To put this month's change in household survey
employment in context, there have been 14 other months over
the past 10 years when the over-the-month change was nearly
600,000 or more. (This figure is based on data as
originally published, and omits months when there were
breaks in data comparability.) In contrast, the payroll
survey registered only one over-the-month change greater
than 500,000 during the same time period, and that movement
was due to an unusual weather event in the prior month
(again using data as originally published). Not
surprisingly, unusually large over-the-month movements in
household survey employment often result in substantial
discrepancies between the two surveys' measures of
employment change in those months.
In recent years, BLS has studied the differences in
employment trends as measured by our household and
establishment surveys. This information is summarized on
our Web site at http://www.bls.gov/cps/ces_cps_trends.pdf.
We will continue our research and issue additional findings
as appropriate. As always, we recommend that users avoid
focusing too much on any single month's estimates when
examining labor market developments.
In summary, the unemployment rate was essentially
unchanged in July, at 5.5 percent, although it was down
substantially from a year earlier. Nonfarm payroll
employment was little changed at 131.3 million in July and
has risen by 1.5 million since August 2003.