Be Cautiously Optimistic, As Election Results To Create Next Wave

May 17, 2019 | 14:47 PM IST

May 17, 2019 | 14:47 PM IST

Our Analysis

This week was one of the most thrilling weeks for the Indian share market. During the whole week, bulls & bears tussled to win each day with heavy volume. The US-China trade war escalations, key earnings release, and other global and domestic economic developments stormed D-street with skyrocketing volatility.

Pharma space was the most cautious one this week. Among the sector, sun pharma which dropped by 20 percent in a day was the biggest casualty of the week. The pharma sector of the Indian markets has paid the price for the price-fixing lawsuit against Teva Pharmaceuticals and 19 other Indian drug makers. The news led the crackdown in the pharma space. However, on a broader level, the expiry day cherished Nifty led a bounce above the 11,100 - 11,050 level.

Recently, US hiked tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese import against which Chinese officials are planning to impose retaliatory tariffs against the US. Moreover, the domestic announcement of IIP, CPI, WPI & Skymet monsoon report worsened the situation for investors. According to data, the distinct slowdown in the domestic manufacturing growth in the year 2018-19 can be seen as it fell to its 3-year low. Furthermore, retail inflation is also expected to heat up ahead as it inched up to 2.9 percent. The delayed monsoon with lower than normal rainfall was also predicted by Skymet report which will further fuel the flame for the agricultural sector and its output. The noises around the election results will definitely add to this and would aid volatility in the market.

Going ahead, In the upcoming week, no major announcements are lined up. However, the market participant will take clues from the last phase of the Lok Sabha election on May 19 and the results which are expected to arrive on 23rd May. Recent strong close (above 11250 levels) suggests the upside, however, the election results are the point of doldrums for bulls and bears. The volatility is the only constant for the investors in the upcoming week. The election results would remain the key to unlock future market trends.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) In the last hour of the trading session on Monday, cash-based panic selling dragged markets suddenly. The first entrant to this sliding race was Sun Pharma. The pharma giant plotted the biggest intraday decline post listing (20 percent), though somehow managed to close 5.43 percent lower. The factor has fueled the fear on D-street which led to hefty panic selling. The Sensex closed down by 372.17 points at 37090.82, while the Nifty dropped by 1.16 percent at 11148.20.

2) In the last session of Tuesday, benchmark indices witnessed a recovery from the day's low. The strength was seen in the heavyweights like Reliance, L&T, ITC & HDFC. Halting the nine-day losing streak the Sensex grew by 227 points at 37,318.53, while Nifty closed higher at 11,222, up 73.80 points.

3) On Wednesday, Indian share market in the last hour of trade has witnessed a sharp fall, erasing the gains of Tuesday's trade. The decline was largely guided by the HDFC Bank & Icici Bank. The benchmark indices which has shown the strength in the early session closed with the negative bias, the Sensex was down 203.65 points at 37,114.88, while Nifty was down by 65 points at 11,157.

4) On Thursday, Markets managed to post decent gains and settled around the days high. The first half of today's trading session was dull as widening trade deficit data and possible delay in monsoon was weighing on the sentiment of market participant. However, the tone changed in the latter half with a sharp recovery in select index majors which aided the benchmark to end around the days high. The Sensex grew by 278.60 at 37,393.48, while Nifty was up 100.10 points at 11,257.10

Broader Index & Global Market:

- On the global front, The US market was seen trading higher with the slightly softening comment by the Trump over the trade war coupled with upbeat earnings and strong economic data, Asian market had also track US market and was in the same path.

- In the broader market, The Mid & Small Cap had traded under pressure, Stock specific action continued to play. Pharma was the most beaten down sector whereas IT was among the top gainer in these weeks.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of BAJAJ FINANCE surged nearly 10 percent. the company after the company reported 57 percent year-on-year (YoY) jump in consolidated profit at Rs 1,176 crore compared with Rs 748 crore in the same quarter last year

Shares of YESBANK dropped more than 15 percent in a week after the RBI appointed an additional director former deputy governor R Gandhi on the board of the private sector lender.

Key Market Drivers

Forex reserves were recorded up by $171.9 mn to $418.7 bn.

Rainfall Numbers shows that the pre-monsoon showers (March to June) this year could end up the lowest of the last five years.

The retail price inflation rose to 2.92 percent in April, pushed higher by costlier food items. However, food inflation was still 1.1 percent in the month against 0.3 percent in the previous month.

April WPI Inflation At 3.07 percent. Food Inflation At 4.95 percent.

Skymet sticks to weak forecast for Monson.

India told Iran it will decide on its oil imports after elections end this month, in line with its economic interests, a government source said.

India postponed the retaliatory tariff deadline on US products till June 16.

Stocks To Watch

Nifty ends above 11,250; Infosys, HDFC Bank shines

Tracking the mixed global clues the Indian share market opened marginally higher. The Sensex was up 57.54 points at 37172.42, while Nifty was up 15.50 points at 11172.50. On the sectoral front, buying was seen in the metal, IT, auto and PSU banking stocks.

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading flat with no major move in any direction. The Sensex was trading at 37112.77 while nifty at 11164.90. Among sector Media, Energy & reality were trading in the green, While Pharma & Fmcg were on the losing side. In the broader market, The situation remained the same, the Mid & Small-cap were trading with merely any change.

Markets managed to post decent gains and settled around the days high. The first half of today's trading session was dull as widening trade deficit data and possible delay in monsoon was weighing on the sentiment of market participant. However, the tone changed in the latter half with a sharp recovery in select index majors which aided the benchmark to end around the days high. The Sensex was 278.60 points up at 37,393.48, while Nifty was up 100.10 points at 11,257.10. On the sectoral front, Except pharma, all other sectoral indices ended higher led by IT, metal, energy, bank, auto, FMCG and infra. The broader market also managed to post decent gain with Mid-cap closing up by 0.30 percent and Small- cap grew by 0.58 percent.

Top Gainers

ZEEL by 9.11% to Rs 351.70 ,BPCL by 4.85% to Rs 377.00,BAJFINANCE by 4.04% to Rs 3,124.00, IOC by 3.88% to Rs 151.40, ULTRACEMCO by 3.86% to Rs 4,150.00.

Top Losers

YESBANK By -3.32% to Rs 138.20, BHARTIARTL by -2.26% to Rs 323.75, INDUSINDBK by -1.62% to Rs 1,356.60, CIPLA by -1.18% to Rs 549.15., COALINDIA by -0.94% to Rs. 232.90.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

ZEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, PepsiCo Indias snack brand Kurkure has partnered with four leading GECs from ZEEL stable for in-show integration of the new positioning Khayaal Toh Chatpata Hai..

YESBANK is the top loser in today's market after the RBI appointed an additional director former deputy governor R Gandhi on the board of the private sector lender.

AUROPHARMA is currently quoting at Rs.724.85 up by Rs 15.30 or 2.16% from its previous closing of Rs.709.55 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.838.00 on 30-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.527.00 on 04-JUN-2018. The stock is been trading in its support zone and it's likely to bounce back from the current levels in the coming days.

M&M is currently quoting at Rs.607.30 down by Rs.-2.35 or -0.39% from its previous closing of Rs.609.65 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 993.00 on 29-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 597.20 on 16-May-2019. The stock has been trading weak and has broken its important support levels, It is likely to remain in pressure in coming days.

A slightly softening statement from US President Donald Trump helped ease worries about the US-China tariff war, opening the Indian share market on a positive note. the Sensex was up 116.55 points at 37435.08, while Nifty grew by 34.50 points at 11256.50. Market heavy-weight Reliance and HDFC Bank were up 0.50 percent in opening bell. On the sectoral front, All the sector were trading in green led by energy, FMCG, auto, bank and IT.

In the afternoon session, The Indian share market was at day's high with Reliance and TCS trading higher with gains of more than 1 percent. The Sensex was up by 227.76 points at 37546.29, While Nifty was trading at 11280.35. Pharma, Auto & energy were among top sectoral gainer, While Media & PSU Bank was on the opposite side. Surprisingly in the broader market, Mid & Small-Cap was trading in the red territory with the cut of 0.03 percent.

Indian share market in the last hour of trade has witnessed a sharp fall, erasing the gains of yesterday's trade. The decline was largely guided by the HDFC Bank & Icici Bank. The benchmark indices which has shown the strength in the early session closed with the negative bias, the Sensex was down 203.65 points at 37,114.88, while Nifty was down by 65 points at 11,157. On the sectoral front, except IT & reality all other sector closed in red led by metal, media & PSU bank. In the broader market, the selling continued with Mid-cap down by 0.68 percent & small-cap declined by 1.21 percent.

Top Gainers

BAJFINANCE by 4.52% to Rs 3,012.10. ,EICHERMOT by 4.23% to Rs 20,045.00,UPL by 1.56% to Rs 970.00, BAJAJFINSV by 1.16% to Rs 7,451.00, IOC by 0.91% to Rs 144.90.

Top Losers

TYESBANK By -8.66% to Rs 142.35 ,TATAMOTORS by -7.48% to Rs 170.70, ZEEL by -6.84% to Rs 322.60, JSWSTEEL by -4.98% to Rs 267.00., INDUSINDBK by -4.07% to Rs. 1,374.40.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

BAJFINANCE is the top gainer in today's market session, there was a higher buying interest in Bajaj Finance in todays trade the stock was up nearly 5 percent.

YESBANK is the top loser in today's market, The concern of the raising capital for the growth is likely to be challenging for the yes back, for the reason the stock was down by more than 8 percent.

India told Iran it will decide on its oil imports after elections end this month, in line with its economic interests, a government source said.

India postponed the retaliatory tariff deadline on US products till June 16

Stocks To Watch

AUROPHARMA is on the upside while MOTHERSUMI is on the downside.

AUROPHARMA is currently quoting at Rs.709.60 up by Rs 5.30 or 0.74% from its previous closing of Rs.714.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.838.00 on 30-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.527.00 on 04-JUN-2018. The stock is been trading in its support zone and it's likely to bounce back from the current levels in the coming days.

MOTHERSUMI is currently quoting at Rs.116.00 down by Rs.-5.85 or -4.80% from its previous closing of Rs.121.85 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 229.13 on 14-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 115.80 on 15-May-2019. The stock has been trading weak and has broken its important support levels, It is likely to remain in pressure in coming days.

Sensex snaps 9-day losing streak; Nifty above 11,200 levels

Indian share market started flat but strong as compared to the global market. The overnight fall on Wall-street followed by the Asian markets was not reflected on Indian markets. Nifty has opened at 11,151.65, up 3 points Sensex has opened at 37,146.58. Among sector, the FMCG, Pharma & PSU bank were trading higher after declining in yesterday's trade.

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market slipped in the negative territory. Sensex was down by 109 points at 36981.34 & Nifty trading at 11119.00. IT, media and auto sector seen dramatic selling whereas PSU bank, Pharma & Infra were preferred by investors and are seen trading higher. In the broader market, Mid & Small Cap was down more than 0.15 percent.

In the last session, benchmark indices witnessed a recovery from the day's low. The strength was seen in the heavyweights like Reliance, L&T, ITC & HDFC. Halting the nine-day losing streak the Sensex was up 227 points at 37,318.53, while Nifty closed at 11,222, up 73.80 points. Except IT which was down 1.21 percent, all other sectors had closed in green. The strength was also visible in the broader market with Midcap up by 0.48 percent and Small cap grew by 0.71 percent.

Top Gainers

IBULHSGFIN by 6.49% to Rs 701.85. ,BHARTIARTL by 6.07% to Rs 338.00,SUNPHARMA by 5.63% to Rs 420.50, VEDL by 4.64% to Rs 161.35, GAIL by 3.82% to Rs 344.75.

Top Losers

TECHM By -3.08% to Rs 792.10 ,BAJFINANCE by -1.57% to Rs 2,885.75, TCS by -1.55% to Rs 2,095.80, HCLTECH by -1.52% to Rs 1,067.15., WIPRO by -1.42% to Rs. 285.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

IBULHSGFIN is the top gainer in today's market session, Many brokerage houses have given a buy rating to IBULHSGFIN which was up 6.49 percent in todays trade.

TECHM is the top loser in today's market, In todays trade, the overall IT pack had witnessed a sell-off with TECHM topping the list, declined by 3.08 percent..

Key Market News

Rainfall Numbers shows that the pre-monsoon showers (March to June) this year could end up the lowest of the last five years.

The retail price inflation rose to a six-month high of 2.92 percent in April, pushed up by costlier food items. However, food inflation was still 1.1 percent in the month against 0.3 percent in the previous month.

SIEMENS is currently quoting at Rs.1,098.00 up by Rs 47.10 or 4.48% from its previous closing of Rs.1,050.90 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,201.80 on 25-APR-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.850.25 on 09-OCT-2018. The company has posted strong Q4 results and likely to witness good buying in coming days.

M&M is currently quoting at Rs.614.60 down by Rs.-3.00 or -0.49% from its previous closing of Rs.617.60 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 993.00 on 29-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 610.55 on 14-May-2019. On the weekly chart, the stock is making lower lows and is trading near its longtime support zone, Considering Auto slowdown it may breach these levels and move southwards.

Indian share markets started on a negative note tracing heat from global financial markets ignited by US-China trade war escalations. The Sensex was down by 69.91 points at 37393.08, while Nifty was trading at 11251.90. On the sectoral front except for FMCG and IT, all the other sectoral indices were trading in the red. In the currency market, the Indian rupee depreciated against the US dollar and traded at 70.16 near to its three-week low.

In the afternoon session, the Indian share market was trading flat after recovering from the day's low. The Sensex was up by 66.33 points at 37529.32, Nifty was trading at 11280.20. On the contrary, as compared to benchmark indices the broader market witnessed a heavy sell-off during the session. Mid & Small Cap indices were down more than 1 percent. On the sectoral front, except Auto and IT, all other sectors were under pressure led by PSU Bank, Media & Pharma.

In the last hour of the trading session, cash-based panic selling dragged markets suddenly. The first entrant to this sliding race was Sun Pharma. The pharma giant plotted the biggest intraday decline post listing (20 percent), though somehow managed to close 5.43 percent lower. The factor has fueled the fear on D-street which led to hefty panic selling. The Sensex closed down by 372.17 points at 37090.82, while the Nifty dropped by 1.16 percent at 11148.20. The price-fixing lawsuit against Teva Pharmaceuticals and 19 other drug makers played a spoilsport for the Indian pharma sector. The lawsuit names some of the Pharma giants like Aurobindo, Dr. Reddys, Glenmark, Lupin, Wockhardt, Zydus and Sun Pharmas US arm Taro from Indian pharma space. This has raised worries for investors which can easily be seen in todays market where pharma has taken a beating of 4 percent.

In the broader market, The sell-off was higher as compared to benchmark indices the Mid & Small-cap declined more than 2 percent in a day. On the sectoral front, except IT, all other sector closed in red with most pain visible in Pharma, PSU bank, and Media. In todays trade Nifty has breached the strong support zone around 11,250-11,200. Now the hope stands around 11,10011,050 level, which is a combination of 61.8% retracement as well as the 200-SMA on the daily chart.

Top Gainers

TITAN by 1.49% to Rs 1,149.00. ,HDFC by 1.31% to Rs 1,957.00,INFRATEL by 1.24% to Rs 265.50, TECHM by 0.82% to Rs 815.00, HINDUNILVR by 0.69% to Rs 1,699.10.

Top Losers

EICHERMOT By -8.13% to Rs 18,700.00 ,ZEEL by -6.64% to Rs 346.55, SUNPHARMA by -5.43% to Rs 414.00, IBULHSGFIN by -5.42 % to Rs 660.25., YESBANK by -4.94% to Rs. 155.75.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

TITAN is the top gainer in today's market session, In todays trade, the stock has witnessed strength as compared d-street.

EICHERMOT is the top loser in today's market after the company on Friday reported an 18 percent year-on-year rise in profit at Rs 544.84 crore for the quarter ended March 31.

HDFC is currently quoting at Rs.1,957.00 up by Rs 25.30 or 1.31% from its previous closing of Rs.1,931.70 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.2,073.00 on 09-Apr-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs.1,644.50 on 23-OCT-2018. The Stock has posted above street estimate Q4 result and will likely to witnessed good buying going ahead.

ZEEL is currently quoting at Rs.346.55 down by Rs.-24.65 or -6.64% from its previous closing of Rs.371.20 on the NSE. The NSE stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 604.90 on 10-MAY-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 288.30 on 25-JAN-2018. The stock is been in selling pressure and looking weak on the chart there may be some selling in the coming days.

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optimum value to our subscribers through our well-researched stock recommendations....
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At Niveza India Pvt Ltd., we all come to work everyday to take the challenges of stock market head on and to change people's
perception that stock market investment is like a gamble. Over the years, we have built our profile as a company which has brought
optimum value to our subscribers through our well-researched stock recommendations. We don't promise you unrealistic returns,
we don't chase intraday or F&O dreams. We believe in the ideals of value & growth investment; these values are reflected in our
products. We are always marching ahead with the goal to better ourselves.

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