Friday, July 12, 2013

As part of a big radio buy [listen right above by clicking on that gizmo] aimed at a dozen right-wing anti-immigrant extremists, the SEIU is targeting 4 GOP crackpots in California: Jeff Denham, Gary Miller, David Valadao and Buck McKeon. The ad asks each of these galoots to support the comprehensive immigration bill that the Senate already passed by a wide bipartisan margin. The ads will fall on deaf ears, even though all 4 represent districts with huge Latino populations. Valadao's district, for example, is 72% Hispanic. Gary Miller's current district-- there are rumors that with John Campbell retiring he may try to run in CA-45, which is whiter (and redder)-- is 49% Hispanic and he was only elected by a fluke. Jeff Denham's district is 40% Latino and Buck McKeon's is 38% Latino. They left out Devin Nunes (despite a 46% Latino district) because he isn't on the DCCC's taget list. Nor are senior GOP leaders Kevin McCarthy (35%), Ed Royce (35%) and Darrell Issa (26%)-- so they got left out too. Too bad a good organization like SEIU takes their cues from the clueless DCCC.They're spending $200,000 on the ads, which are running all week, and will probably do more to help the Democratic candidates who are opposing the dozen bigots than actually influencing the biggots to change their minds. The ad highlights John Bircher and notorious Georgia racist Paul Broun claiming that "These illegal aliens are criminals and we need to treat them as such," which neatly sums up the attitudes of all the Republicans who are being targeted. The ads go on to say, in Spanish: "This is offensive and an insult to our community. Fortunately, on the other side are true patriots-- business owners, religious leaders and elected officials from both parties-- who have declared themselves firmly in support of immigration reform."

New Public Policy Polling surveys in 7 Congressional Districts across the country find that key Republicans could be in trouble if the House doesn’t pass immigration reform this year.
The polls show two things:

• Republican and Independent voters want Congress to pass a solution to our country’s broken immigration system• Many are less likely to support Republicans if the House fails to pass immigration reform this summer

Voters in CA-10 (Jeff Denham), CA-21 (David Valadao), CA-31 (Gary Miller), CO-6 (Mike Coffman), MN-2 (John Kline), NV-3 (Joe Heck), and NY-11 (Mike Grimm) all say they would be less likely to vote for their Congressman next year if he opposes immigration reform. Voters in those districts also say they will be inclined to punish the Republican Party more broadly if the House GOP does not allow immigration reform to move forward.The reason voters would hold it against their officials if immigration reform does not pass is that there’s overwhelming support for it in each of these highly competitive districts. Anywhere from 61 to 69% support the proposal the Senate passed last month. There’s also a sense of urgency on the issue with 75 to 78% of voters in each district saying they think it’s important the US fix its immigration system this year. The Huffington Post is keeping an excellent whip count of where every House Members stands of comprehensive immigration legislation. If you hit the link and look at their chart, you'll notice that there are 188 pro-immigrants votes (all Democrats), 114 anti-immigrants (all Republicans) and 132 undecided Members. And not all the undecided congressmembers are Republicans. Blue Dogs and New Dems like John Barrow (GA), Jim Matheson (UT), Dan Lipinski (IL), Mike McIntyre (NC), Collin Peterson (MN), Kurt Schrader (OR) and Tom Owens (NY) are playing their cards close to their chests. Several of them are dependent on the DCCC financially for reelection. What a shame Steve Israel adamantly refuses to pressure them into voting with the 188 Democrats who are pro-immigrant!

House Republicans claim they see no urgency whatsoever about acting this summer on immigration reform, and just might get around to it some time this fall. And it’s probably true, as many have already noted, that individual House Republicans-- tucked away in safe conservative districts-- won’t feel any pressure to act on reform.But there’s one potential downside for the party in this strategy: it could mean the GOP gets hammered in the Hispanic media for months....The word is that House Republicans believe the GOP elite’s concerns about the need to repair relations among Latinos, and the potential consequences failure to do this could have for the party, are “overblown.”But Democrats are planning a concerted push to make Republicans pay for failure to support reform in the Latino media. Obama himself is planning a series of interviews with Spanish-language media, where he’ll no doubt call on Republicans to get behind comprehensive reform without delay.

If Republicans become as toxic to Hispanic voters nationally, as they made themselves in California, it will become increasingly difficult from congressmembers in at least a dozen demographically-changing districts to hold onto their careers, particularly Steven Pearce (R-NM), Blake Farenthold (R-TX), Doc Wastings (R-WA), Randy Neugebauer (R-TX), Michael Conaway (R-TX) and 5 California wingnuts who are already on very shaky grounds: David Valadao, Gary Miller, Devin Nunes, Jeff Denham and Buck McKeon. Rumors are that Miller is looking to move to a redder district and that McKeon is about to retire from Congress and become a lobbyist, rather than face a growing and pissed off Hispanic constituency.