The primary purpose of this blog (Prithviraj Kothari - MD, RSBL | Bullion market blog) is to educate the masses of the current happenings in the Bullion world.
This blog contains my opinion, which is not to be construed as investment advices.
Information provided in these blogs is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable

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Sunday, 26 July 2015

DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR GOLD: RSBL

By Mr. Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RSBL

Gold has always been considered a commodity and a currency. But currently it has lost its appeal as both. At present it is not sought after in either form.

Investors are selling the metal from gold-backed funds at the fastest pace in four months. Holdings in exchange-traded products declined 17.6 metric tons this week to the lowest since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

This year gold has plunged 8.3 percent. Gold’s appeal has been curbed due to high borrowing costs. This in turn doesn’t pay interest or generate yields like other current income generating assets including equities. Moreover, a projection of an interest rate hike in September is influencing gold in losing its sheen.

A strong dollar and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hike their interest rates by the end of the year triggered selling pressure on gold and took prices to their lowest point since April 2010. The US greenback rallied to a three-month high following comment from the Fed Chairperson last week, which eased gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Huge selloffs witnessed in Chinese futures market and breaking the key technical support of $1130 has ignited liquidation.

Earlier, spot gold tumbled to a fresh five year low of $1,077.50.

The gold market has some pretty big hurdles to cross as prices hit fresh five-year lows early Friday. Although a late-day rally helped push prices back to around $1,100 an ounce and cut gold’s loss to only around 3% from Monday. Gold prices bounced back after touching a 5-year low earlier in the trading session as the dollar flattened on poor US housing data.The gold price recovered from its earlier lows during Friday sessions, but sentiment surrounding the yellow metal remained poor as it continued to trade under $1,100 per ounce.Spot gold was last at $1,082.90/1,083.70, but off the fresh five year lows it hit earlier when gold tumbled to just $1,077.50.

But there many analysts in the market who still believe that gold prices will rise. On the other side there are some who believe that gold will no longer be accepted as a commodity or a currency.The current volatility has created new waves in the market that has disowned gold from many investors list. Let’s view the reasons behind the bull v/s bear sentiment.

This week’s volatility sparked as we saw important data coming in from various economiesU.S. - better-than-expected US jobs data sparked the move lower. After an optimistic US weekly unemployment reading was released, market participants wondered how that would affect next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Further hints that the Fed is on track for a September rate hike could present downside risks for gold especially given current momentum.China- Chinese Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing PMI came out at 48.2 against a forecast of 49.8. The number was below the psychologically important 50 level for the first time in 15 months. This created disappointment in the market for gold.Eurozone- in the Eurozone, EU flash services number disappointed at 53.8, though the manufacturing number was as expected at 53.8. EU flashes services number disappointed at 53.8, though the manufacturing number was as expected at 53.8.Although there is improving market sentiment among some analysts who say gold is oversold and are expecting to see a modest technical rally, there is still a strong bearish undertone among retail investors.

Gold has fallen by 7.9 percent year-to-date compared with base metals, which in aggregate are down 15.6 percent and energy commodities which in aggregate are down 9.7 percent

Even though gold is down this year, it remains a relative outperformer against the bulk of commodities

Expectations that further data coming in from US maybe under expectations, which again sends positive signals for gold.

More volatility is likely next week as the market will switch its attention to the US FOMC meeting.

Next week, the focus will be on the FOMC meeting – further hints that the Fed is on track for a September rate hike could present downside risks for gold especially given current momentum. Investors are bailing on gold on expectations the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates as the economy strengthens. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar and economic data next week; and, according to analysts, any weakness could be positive for the gold market