Current-today...Tropical Storm Humberto was located about 190 miles east of Vero Beach at 11 PM and moving north-northwest at 6 mph. Humberto is forecast to continue to move north-northwest into this afternoon and evening well offshore from the space coast and Volusia County later today. Gradual strengthening is forecast and Humberto could become a hurricane by this evening. Northerly winds on the back side of Humberto will elevate seas across the Atlantic, with high surf expected north of Sebastian Inlet and a high risk of rip currents for east central Florida beaches. As Humberto lifts northward, winds will become northwest from Melbourne south to the Treasure Coast with gusty north/north-northeast winds along coastal Volusia County where breezy conditions are expected. Onshore moving showers are expected north of the cape with short range model guidance indicating a detached convective band may develop across southern portions of east central Florida this afternoon. Will have higher pops in the likely range for coastal and srn sections and scattered convective chances for Lake County. Highs will range from around 86 along the Volusia coast and near 90 across srn sections and the interior.

Tonight...Humberto is expected to begin to turn NE tonight well offshore from the Volusia County and NE Florida coast. Scattered evening convection may linger across far southern sections and then expect only a slight shower chance for coastal sections mainly north of the cape overnight. Lows generally in the mid 70s to the upper 70s at the beaches.

Monday...tropical cyclone Humberto will continue to slowly move further away from Florida. We will be on the backside of the storm's circulation with northwesterly to northerly flow across central Florida. A tight moisture gradient is forecast to develop from west to east, with higher rain chances along the coast. Models continue to show scattered showers and maybe an isolated lightning storm or two moving onshore in the afternoon. Temperatures remain near normal with afternoon highs around 90-91 degrees and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Wednesday...winds transition to a more onshore (north- northeast) component. Expect mostly dry conditions Tuesday due to considerable dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere. Some models hint at a few showers developing west of I-95 in the Treasure Coast, but conditions may be too dry even for that. On Wednesday, a weak elongated shortwave trough will quickly move south from the Carolinas towards the Florida Peninsula. While this feature may enhance rainfall, though there is considerable uncertainty regarding exactly how strong it will be. For now, have capped rain chances at 30 percent for Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should remain near normal for this time of year.

Thursday-Saturday...Stout northeasterly flow is forecast to develop by Thursday as the pressure gradient between tropical cyclone Humberto in the western Atlantic and a developing ridge over the mid- Atlantic states increases. Forecast soundings indicate precipitable water values below 1.50" which would be remarkably dry for this time of year. Again uncertainty remains high, GFS shows a quick return of deeper moisture by the late afternoon, while the European model (ecmwf)/CMC keep conditions much drier. Thus, rain chances are once again conservatively capped at 30 percent. The stronger onshore winds will keep temps on the cooler side of normal with mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s inland.

By Friday, a deep ridge builds in across the eastern Continental U.S. As winds veer east-northeasterly here in central Florida. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase, and with Stout onshore flow expect a stream of scattered showers during the afternoon hours. This trend will continue into the weekend with a 30-40 percent chance of showers each day.

&&

Aviation... isolated to scattered onshore moving showers are expected mainly north of kmlb before sunrise reaching into the interior from ksfb_kmco at times. Have continued some rain showers chcs nrn terminals through late morning and early afternoon and then vcsh. From kmlb south along the coast, should see scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain develop into mid to late afternoon and move toward the East Coast into early evening. Precip chances should mainly end by 02z, except a linger cstl rain showers chance from kdab-ktix overnight.

&&

Marine... today...Tropical Storm Humberto will move north-northwest offshore from east central Florida with center forecast to remain about 170-180 miles offshore. The pressure gradient will expand some as the system deepens later today and expect winds to increase to at least 25 knots across the nrn offshore waters with some gusts to 35 knots well offshore. Winds will not be as strong across the srn waters to 15-20 knots but higher swells will linger offshore and at times reach the southern near shore waters. Will continue Small Craft Advisory all areas with seas building to 10-12 ft across the offshore waters north of Cape Canaveral. Seas south of Sebastian Inlet will range from 5-7 ft near shore to 6-8 ft offshore.

Tonight...N/NW winds will continue tonight strongest across the well offshore Volusia waters to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Seas will remain hazardous offshore from 10-12 ft across the offshore waters north of Cape Canaveral to 7-9 ft across the srn offshore waters. Will continue Small Craft Advisory headlines for all of the waters.

Monday-Thursday...marine conditions remain hazardous for small crafts this week. Sustained northerly winds are forecast between 15- 20 knots with higher gusts. Even as Tropical Storm Humberto continues to move away from the area, the storm will continue generating large swells across the waters east of Florida. Seas are forecast to be 6-7 feet nearshore and up to 8 feet offshore. These winds going against the Gulf Stream may lead to locally higher seas farther offshore. Drier conditions are expected early in the week before winds veer onshore on Wednesday with an increase in shower activity.