correspondence

Leading scientists still reject God
Sir — The question of religious belief Table 1 Comparison of survey answers among intellectual and affective communication
among US scientists has been debated since “greater” scientists with humankind” and in “personal
early in the century. Our latest survey finds Belief in personal God 1914 1933 1998 immortality”. Respondents had the options
that, among the top natural scientists,
disbelief is greater than ever — almost total.
Research on this topic began with the
Personal belief
Personal disbelief
Doubt or agnosticism
27.7
52.7
20.9
15
68
17
7.0
72.2
20.8
of affirming belief, disbelief or agnosticism
on each question1. Our survey contained
precisely the same questions and also asked
8
eminent US psychologist James H. Leuba for anonymous responses.
and his landmark survey of 1914. He found Belief in human 1914 1933 1998 Leuba sent the 1914 survey to 400
that 58% of 1,000 randomly selected US immortality “biological and physical scientists”, with the
scientists expressed disbelief or doubt in the Personal belief 35.2 18 7.9 latter group including mathematicians as
existence of God, and that this figure rose to Personal disbelief 25.4 53 76.7 well as physicists and astronomers1. Because
near 70% among the 400 “greater” scientists Doubt or agnosticism 43.7 29 23.3 of the relatively small size of NAS
within his sample1. Leuba repeated his Figures are percentages. membership, we sent our survey to all 517
survey in somewhat different form 20 years scientists it was 79.0% and 76.3%. Most of NAS members in those core disciplines.
later, and found that these percentages had the rest were agnostics on both issues, with Leuba obtained a return rate of about 70%
increased to 67 and 85, respectively 2. few believers. We found the highest in 1914 and more than 75% in 1933
In 1996, we repeated Leuba’s 1914 percentage of belief among NAS whereas our returns stood at about 60% for
survey and reported our results in Nature 3. mathematicians (14.3% in God, 15.0% in the 1996 survey and slightly over 50% from
We found little change from 1914 for immortality). Biological scientists had the NAS members1,2.
American scientists generally, with 60.7% lowest rate of belief (5.5% in God, 7.1% in As we compiled our findings, the NAS
expressing disbelief or doubt. This year, we immortality), with physicists and issued a booklet encouraging the teaching
closely imitated the second phase of Leuba’s astronomers slightly higher (7.5% in God, of evolution in public schools, an ongoing
1914 survey to gauge belief among “greater” 7.5% in immortality). Overall comparison source of friction between the scientific
scientists, and find the rate of belief lower figures for the 1914, 1933 and 1998 surveys community and some conservative
than ever — a mere 7% of respondents. appear in Table 1. Christians in the United States. The booklet
Leuba attributed the higher level of Repeating Leuba’s methods presented assures readers, “Whether God exists or not
disbelief and doubt among “greater” challenges. For his general surveys, he is a question about which science is
scientists to their “superior knowledge, randomly polled scientists listed in the neutral”5. NAS president Bruce Alberts said:
understanding, and experience”2. Similarly, standard reference work, American Men of “There are many very outstanding
Oxford University scientist Peter Atkins Science (AMS). We used the current edition. members of this academy who are very
commented on our 1996 survey, “You In Leuba’s day, AMS editors designated the religious people, people who believe in
clearly can be a scientist and have religious “great scientists” among their entries, and evolution, many of them biologists.” Our
beliefs. But I don’t think you can be a real Leuba used these to identify his “greater” survey suggests otherwise.
scientist in the deepest sense of the word scientists1,2. The AMS no longer makes Edward J. Larson
because they are such alien categories of these designations, so we chose as our Department of History, University of Georgia,
knowledge.”4 Such comments led us to “greater” scientists members of the NAS, a Athens, Georgia 30602-6012, USA
repeat the second phase of Leuba’s study for status that once assured designation as e-mail: edlarson@uga.edu
an up-to-date comparison of the religious “great scientists” in the early AMS. Our Larry Witham
beliefs of “greater” and “lesser” scientists. method surely generated a more elite 3816 Lansdale Court, Burtonsville,
Our chosen group of “greater” scientists sample than Leuba’s method, which (if the Maryland 20866, USA
were members of the National Academy of quoted comments by Leuba and Atkins are
Sciences (NAS). Our survey found near correct) may explain the extremely low level 1. Leuba, J. H. The Belief in God and Immortality: A Psychological,
Anthropological and Statistical Study (Sherman, French & Co.,
universal rejection of the transcendent by of belief among our respondents. Boston, 1916).
NAS natural scientists. Disbelief in God and For the 1914 survey, Leuba mailed his 2. Leuba, J. H. Harper’s Magazine 169, 291–300 (1934).
immortality among NAS biological brief questionnaire to a random sample of 3. Larson, E. J. & Witham, L. Nature 386, 435–436 (1997).
scientists was 65.2% and 69.0%, 400 AMS “great scientists”. It asked about 4. Highfield, R. The Daily Telegraph 3 April, p. 4 (1997).
5. National Academy of Sciences Teaching About Evolution and the
respectively, and among NAS physical the respondent’s belief in “a God in Nature of Science (Natl Acad. Press, Washington DC, 1998).