Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Liveblogging For Tonight's Races

2:17 AM. In Alaska, Republican challenger Dan Sullivan is ahead of Democrat incumbent Mark Begich by over 4 points, with 97% of the vote counted. No one has called it yet, but even in the unlikely event that Begich got all of the 3% of the vote remaining, he would still lose, so I imagine the media is simply trying to keep the news of another seat, the 8th, falling into GOP hands as long as possible. Virginia is also to close to call, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a recount. Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie 49.1 to 48.6%, less 5 tenths of a percent.

In the House, the GOP so far has picked up 12 seats, for a huge majority of 243 seats to 176 for the Democrats. A lot of races haven't been called yet, particularly of the West Coast, so I expect the Democrats to add to their tally. But these will be mostly holds, not pickups.

The governor's races were likewise part of tonight's wave. The Republicans haven't lost any yet, although they were expected to. They added three governorships to their tally, in -wait for it - solid Blue Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts, where Martha Coakley dropped another one and should seriously consider a different line of work.

One particularly sweet victory was that of Sam Brown back, who was supposed to be 'too conservative' to win in Kansas. He won by over 4 points over a well funded Democrat challenger.

Thank you for hanging in there! I trust by tomorrow morning, we'll have some more final numbers.

8:37PMNorth Carolina goes Republican. Thom Tillis has just been declared the winner, sending Kay Hagen back to trolling for government dollars back on K Street. The race was close, 49-47%,but that's largely because of another Democrat funded 'libertarian' Sean Haugh, who sopped up four points that would normally have mostly gone to Tillis. The same tactic was used in Virginia, and it could cost the Republicans another senate seat they could have won tonight.

What's left is Alaska and the runoff in Louisiana.I don't see the Democrats winning in Alaska, and in Louisiana Bill Cassidy outpolled Mary Landrieu in tonight's election. The only reason there's going to be a tun off is again,because of a maverick third party candidate..who won't be in the run off. If the Republicans win both contests, they will have picked up 9 seats for a 54-46 Senate..make that 56-44 if Angus King and Joe Manchin do what 8:31PM they've said they're going to do if the GOP won the majority - Manchin switching parties and King, an independent caucusing with the GOP.

8:31PMIt's official. All the major outlets have called Iowa for Joni Ernst. I will permit myself a dignified 'whoo hoo!'

In other good news, Renee Elmers, one of my favorite congresspeople beat the livin' daylights out of American Idol pretty boy Clay Aiken 59% to 41% in North Carolina's 2nd District. Nice shootin' M'dear!

8:17 PMThe local NBC affiliate, WHO TV has declared Republican Joni Ernst the winner and the first female to serve as an Iowa senator. I'd wait until some more projections come in, but it's looking good, and with 60% of the vote in, she's leading by 4 points. I think she's going to take it, and she will make a superb senator.Oh, and by the way..Scott Walker won re-election in Wisconsin.

7:47 PM ABC and FOX just called Colorado for Republican Cory Gardener, and by about 7 points.Kansas has also been called for GOP incumbent Pat Roberts. Perhaps Gigglin' Joe, our VP helped out a little but by blabbing that 'independent' Greg Ormand was going to caucus with the Democrats yesterday, something Ormand kept trying to deny. If so, it's one of the only useful things Gigglin' Joe has done in his long career in public life. So, that makes five pickups. Thom Tillis is ahead of incumbent Democrat Kay Hagen in North Carolina by two points with 94% of the votes in, and Republican David Perdue is well ahead of Michelle Nunn in Georgia,with 92% of the votes counted. The only remaining opportunities for Democrat holds are in Alaska, in Iowa and the Louisiana runoff. They would have yo win two of those contests to keep the Senate, and the odds are against them in all three.

7:22 PMI'm happy to report that Abortion Barbie, AKA Wendy Davis was absolutely annihilated by Republican Greg Abbott in the Texas Governor's race. Abbot beat this Jackass by 58 to 41 percent according to the exit polls.Aside from her odious personal attributes, the lies and misrepresentations about everything from Abbot's record to her own personal story, the foul campaign ads mocking his disability and her final desperate attempt to play the race card by claiming that Abbot, who is married to a Hispanic woman planned to 'outlaw inter-racial marriages' made her unfit for the governor's chair as well as most decent human society.

There's an interesting story brewing in Virginia. Republican challenger Ed Gillespie was never expected to beat Dem Incumbent Mark Warner. But with 92% of the vote in, depending whose figures you look at, they are either tied neck and neck at 92% or Gillespie is actually ahead by a tenth of one per cent. Again, the spoiler is Democrat funded 'libertarian' Robert Sarvis, who has 3% of the vote. This one is going to be a nail biter and no one expected it.

In another surprise, Republican incumbent Rick Scott beat out Charlie Crist for the governor's chair in Florida, 48.3% to 46.9%. Again, Charlie Crist is not someone you'd want in charge of a McDonald's let alone the state of Florida.

6:58 PM Louisiana is headed for a runoff, with neither GOP challenger Bill Cassidy or Democrat Mary Landrieu able to get to 50%. With 3rd party candidate Maness out of the way, the Republicans are favored to win the December runoff. Both Montana and South Dakota have been called by CBS, ABC and several other outlets as GOP pickups. That gives the Republicans a total of 5 so far.

6:35 PM: There's a lot to keep track of tonight, but as usual I will be keeping up with tonight's action, concentrating on the more interesting races in battleground states.All times given are PST

Here's what's happened so far:

ABC has called New Hampshire for Democrat incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. With 29% of the votes counted, she's got 53% of the vote compared to Republican Scott Brown's 47%. Of course, in New Hampshire that amounts to something like 8,000 votes, so we'll see.

There have been two GOP senate pickups thus far...with Tom Cotten winning in Arkansas against Dem Mark Pryor by 11 points with about a third of the vote counted despite frantic get-out-the-vote efforts by former President Bill Clinton. Bot ABC and the NYT have called the race for Cotton. And also as expected, Shelly Moore Capito crushed Democrat Natalie Tennant in West Virginia.

In Georgia, with 36% of the vote counted,Republican David Perdue is well ahead of Democrat Michelle Nunn, 59% to 39%. And that's with a third party 'libertarian' in the race. At this rate, Perdue may avoid a runoff.

In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat and GOP challenger Thom Tillis are neck and neck, with 3rd party libertarian Haugh at about 3 percent, which could make the difference in what's probably going to be a pretty close race.

In Kansas CBS shows GOP incumbent Pat Roberts slightly ahead of 'independent' Greg Orman with 26% of the votes counted. ABC shows Roberts up by 2 points 49% to 47%, and in Colorado Cory Gardner is leading Dem incumbent Mark 'Uterus' Udall by 6 points with 59% of the votes in, while Beauprez and Hickenlooper are pretty much neck and neck for the governors seat. In Wisconsin, Republican Scott Walker has a decisive lead in his bid for re-election against Democrat Mary Burke, 52-47%, but it's early days yet with only 10% of the vote in.