Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has indicated she would not serve in President Obama's second term. / Gent Shkullaku, AFP/Getty Images

by By Aamer Madhani and Kevin Johnson, USA TODAY

by By Aamer Madhani and Kevin Johnson, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON - President Obama's re-election victory isn't even 3 days old, but discussions about what his second-term Cabinet might look like have already begun.

Predictions over who will stay and who will go were heightened Thursday, when Attorney General Eric Holder said he was assessing whether he'll stick around for Obama 2.0.

"That's something that I'm in the process now of trying to determine," Holder said at forum at the University of Baltimore School of Law. "I have to think about, can I contribute in a second term?"

In any two-term presidency, churn among Cabinet officials and senior advisers is the norm, and Obama's presidency likely will be no different. But with a looming "fiscal cliff" - the $600 billion in automatic budget cuts and tax hikes set to go into effect Jan. 1 unless the White House and Congress act - it's unclear how quickly Obama will turn over key staff.

So far, the White House has been mum. "The personnel issues will be dealt with appropriately," said Obama senior adviser David Plouffe.

Even before the election, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said they planned to move on.

Philippe Reines, a Clinton spokesman, said Thursday that Clinton still plans to leave, but suggested that she is in no rush. "At such an important time ... she wants to ensure continuity, and realizes the confirmation of her successor might not exactly line up with Jan. 22, 2013," Reines said.

Among those likely under consideration for Clinton's job are Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.; national security adviser Tom Donilon; and Susan Rice, Obama's chief envoy to the United Nations, says H. Andrew Schwartz, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington.

All three come with complications.

Donilon is a trusted Obama adviser with serious foreign policy chops but couldn't match the Clinton star power on the international stage, Schwartz said.

Rice has come under criticism for incorrectly publicly stating that the Sept. 11 attack on the consulate in Benghazi, Libya, was precipitated by protests over an anti-Islamic video.

If Obama picks Kerry, it would set off a special election in Massachusetts and potentially offers Sen. Scott Brown, a popular Republican who lost his seat on Tuesday to Elizabeth Warren, another chance to win back a Senate seat, Schwartz said. But Peter Ubertaccio, a political scientist at Stonehill College in Easton, Mass., said concerns about keeping the seat may be diminished since Democrats picked up seats in the election.

"There are not many internationally recognized political leaders who will serve in the Cabinet," Ubertaccio said. "The president found one in Hillary Clinton much as George W. Bush found one in Colin Powell, and John Kerry fits the bill."

For Treasury, among names that have been bandied about, Schwartz says, is Jack Lew, Obama's chief of staff and a former head of the Office of Management & Budget. Donilon's name has also been floated to replace Lew as chief of staff if Lew leaves.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano is often mentioned as a possible successor to Holder, should he move on, Schwartz said.

Holder's term heading the Justice Department has been marked by tense relations with Republicans. The GOP-led House voted to hold Holder in contempt related to the congressional investigation into the gun-trafficking operation "Fast and Furious." Still, some law enforcement analysts lauded his performance.

"Whoever is selected to that job has to have an appreciation for what police and prosecutors do every day," said Chuck Wexler, executive director of the Police Executive Research Forum, a law enforcement think tank.

At his Baltimore appearance, Holder said that he still needs to sit down with his family and Obama to discuss his future. "(I have to) really ask myself the question about, do I think there are things that I still want to do? Do I have gas left in the tank?

"It's been an interesting and tough four years, so I really just don't know," he said.