Table 1. Well-being and ecosystem services vary substantially over these four scenarios, which differ according to their evolution of policies, ecosystem services, and institutions.

Global orchestration. Free trade and a good heart reign in this
scenario. There is a determined effort to fight poverty and inequality. As a
result, there is a huge boost in food and other provisioning services in
developing countries. However, the general approach to ecosystem services is
reactive, rather than preventative. The costs are borne by regulating
services—such as climate change—and a loss in cultural
services.

Order from strength. The world fragments into regional markets and
alliances. Nations are obsessed with security issues, and the tragedy of the
commons deepens. Most categories of ecosystem services decline, especially in
developing countries.

TechnoGarden. This is a globally connected world, with abundant
green technology, and a focus on preventing ecosystem problems. Food and other
provisions increase, although they are not maximized. Climate change, floods, and
disease are of less concern. Biodiversity continues to decline.

Adapting mosaic. The emphasis here is on local solutions. Regional
politicians and institutions focus on watershed-scale ecosystems to maximize
benefits and prevent problems. If it catches on widely, it pays off. Every type
of ecosystem service improves in both developing and industrialized
nations.