Numbers on sole parent support have plunged by 8600, or 10 per cent, in the year to March.
It is the biggest drop in a single year since the benefit - previously known as the domestic purposes benefit, or DPB - was created in 1974.
Sole parent support is now being paid to 75,844 sole parents, fewer than in any year in the DPB's history since 1988.
About 22,000 people with no children under 14 were moved to other benefits when the DPB was abolished last July, but even if they were added back in, the total number of sole parents on any kind of benefit is the lowest since 1993.

Not sure where he gets the data to make the last statement though. Did he add back the 22,000 to the 75,844, arrive at 97,844 then go back through the DPB historical numbers? Looks like it because in 1993 there were 96,335 people on the DPB and in 1994 there were 100,256.

But he wrote "any kind of benefit". He hasn't accounted for the Supported Living Payment/Invalid benefit which grew from 35,000 in 1993 to 87,000 in 2012. In 2009 over 5,000 single parents were on an invalid's benefit.

Anyway I guess I'm being pedantic. Maybe the info was provided to him by MSD because he has other data (eg the specific reasons why sole parents are leaving benefits) which isn't publicly released

Good to see him talking about 'net' reductions. Many journalists forget that there are also people constantly going onto benefits.

The biggest net reduction (13 per cent) was for parents aged 40 to
54, whose children were most likely to have turned 14. The next biggest
reduction was in the 18-24 age group (down 10.4 per cent), with a
smaller reduction for those aged 25 to 39 (down 9 per cent).
The
number of Europeans on sole parent support also dropped sharply (down
12.5 per cent), as did Pacific numbers (down 11.5 per cent). But Maori
numbers fell 7.9 per cent, so Maori increased from 44.9 per cent of
those on sole parent support to 46.1 per cent.
Michelle Neho, who runs the Pikorua community centre in Papakura, said she had seen little change.
"Not many have gone off the benefit round here," she said.

The most employable people leave first welfare first. We will see how effective the reforms are when the harder cases, the intergenerational types, start leaving.

I note too that another important reason for the reduction isn't canvassed (the official line from MSD is economic trend.) That's the falling number of births, especially teenage. This will definitely be having an impact.

Friday, April 18, 2014

THE LATEST ROY MORGAN POLL has Labour on 28.5 percent (down 3.5 percent) and the Greens on 11.5 percent (down 1.5 percent). At 40 percent, the combined vote of the two main centre-left parties has fallen 5 percentage points since Roy Morgan’s previous survey in late March. Roy Morgan has long been the Left’s favourite polling agency: a source of good news when the Colmar-Brunton, Reid Research and Ipsos agencies could offer nothing but ill-tidings. That “our poll” has begun to deliver ill-tidings of its own is bad news indeed.

Go read Trotter's explanation.

Does anyone know the whereabouts of that stalwart
and courageous David Cunliffe who bore every insult that his enemies could hurl
at him. The David Cunliffe who sat stoically on the back benches while his
party fought for his return. The David Cunliffe who campaigned up and down the
length of New Zealand for a rededication to Labour’s core values. The David
Cunliffe who promised to rescue New Zealand from John Key’s “crony capitalism”.
If anyone does know where he is could they please advise Moira Coatsworth and
Tim Barnett immediately – he is sorely missed.

And sorely needed. Because, if that David Cunliffe
is not found – and soon – the pallid and oh-so-timid fellow currently
masquerading as the leader of the Opposition is going to lose the election. Not
just for Labour, the Greens and Mana, but for every other New Zealander seeking
a radical change in their country’s direction.

Odd because I haven't seen the timid version. But I can find him the smarmy, arrogant, nasty man. That's the real turn off.

Does
anyone know the whereabouts of that stalwart and courageous David
Cunliffe who bore every insult that his enemies could hurl at him. The
David Cunliffe who sat stoically on the back benches while his party
fought for his return. The David Cunliffe who campaigned up and down the
length of New Zealand for a rededication to Labour’s core values. The
David Cunliffe who promised to rescue New Zealand from John Key’s “crony
capitalism”. If anyone does know where he is could they please advise
Moira Coatsworth and Tim Barnett immediately – he is sorely missed.
And sorely needed. Because, if that David Cunliffe is not found – and
soon – the pallid and oh-so-timid fellow currently masquerading as the
leader of the Opposition is going to lose the election. Not just for
Labour, the Greens and Mana, but for every other New Zealander seeking a
radical change in their country’s direction.
- See more at:
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/04/18/that-sinking-feeling-labours-urgent-need-for-persuasive-words-and-courageous-deeds/#sthash.pXqs59db.dpuf

Thursday, April 17, 2014

A QUARTER of boys born in Glasgow between 2010 and 2012 will not
live to see their 65th birthday, according to research which shows the
city has the lowest life expectancy in Britain.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal
public health problems continue to ail Scotland’s largest city, at a
time when it is preparing to host the Commonwealth Games.
The findings show that only 75 per cent of boys and 85 per cent of girls born in the city will reach their 65th birthday.
The average life expectancy of babies born in Glasgow between 2010 and 2012 was 72.6 years for boys and 78.5 years for girls.

In 2010-12, the Maori male life expectancy is 72.8 - pretty close. So if the methodology stacks up here, so will the finding. (Of course it might not. Conceivably the extremes may be greater. For example, a third of Maori baby boys might not make 65 but the survivors have longer life expectancies than the Scottish cohort.)

I have lived in New Zealand since I came as a student. I love this
country and have stayed and formed my own small businesses, provide
employment and made my part of a contribution to this wonderful country.
I am standing for parliament again because I am alarmed at what has
happened to race relations in our country. It has got much worse.
Last year, when Winston Peters launched a vicious racial attack and
pointed at the New Zealand Chinese community for creating a 'Supercity
of sin', only ACT stood up openly against his attack.
This year Winston Peters again started his campaign against
foreigners. Everyone knows, including we Chinese New Zealanders, that
his campaign is directed at us.
Sadly, now the Labour Party has joined in, playing the race card,
blaming the Chinese for New Zealand's problems. No surprise for me to
hear David Cunllife said that he “respects Winston Peters
greatly” because Labour is 'going in bed' with Peters!
We need racial harmony, not racial hatred or hostility.
Most of the houses owned by Chinese are not bought for speculation.
It is Chinese parents buying an apartment for their children to live in
while studying at University. Those students pay full fees and
contribute to our employment and economy. How does that hurt New
Zealand?

Monday, April 14, 2014

In December, I went halves with my daughter on an old saxophone - a Selmer Bundy 11 - from Cash Converters (via a Trade Me auction that escalated.)

With no intention to use it myself, I wanted her to afford an entry level instrument. Her motivation was an accomplished Maori guy busking at Pack'n'Save just before Xmas. She gave him $5 (she's only 15 but has a part-time job) and he told her how easy it was to play and she should try it. That was enough. Plant a seed in her musical being and it grows.

As it transpired, she found it very hard going (and is back on the guitar as I write.)

The instrument was in need of a service. But with some training on clarinet and oboe in my early teens, the muscle memory came flooding back. Soon I could get a passable sound from it and started hunting out music, watching YouTube lessons, researching options for backing and software to transcribe chords. I got the bug.

Then, wah wah wah (as KS would say about Cunliffe's remonstrations) the semi functional sax had a catastrophic malfunction. Well, not really. But for a instrument ignoramus like me it was untacklable and heartbreaking. I had to fix it. A day without playing wasn't a day I wanted to have.

So came a restless night, difficult decision. Invest in fixing the old saxophone, buy a new student model, buy a Chinese knock-off (which are reputedly very good if you can trust the web), rent, rent-to-buy, search out another secondhand quality instrument... Total dilemma.

Only now obvious to me, in a lifelong pattern, I went economically foolhardy over music. The only things I have ever bought which I can't afford are connected to music (we currently have two pianos - one is my most valuable possession -
which have been preceded by other varieties, amongst them a grand.)

For some reason circumstances conspired and I found myself at the woodwind specialists in Wellington asking for a brand new P Mauriat to be demonstrated.

Heartwarming, but ruined with a caveat by those thicko communists cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

A New York City classical radio station recently completed a drive to
collect used musical instruments that will be refurbished and
distributed to music programs in the city’s public schools.
A
total of 2,500 instruments were collected in the 10-day drive conducted
by WQXR that ended on April 7. They included flutes, guitars, clarinets
and some less common instruments, including a xylophone, a Chinese pipa,
accordions and mandolins.
The number greatly exceeded the
original target of 1,000 instruments. The success of the drive
undoubtedly reflects strong support for cultural programs in the
schools, and for the instruments getting into the hands of interested
students who would not otherwise have the opportunity to learn and play...
There is some talk of the instrument drive becoming an annual event.
While such a development would certainly be welcome from one point of
view, any suggestion that this is an adequate substitute for full and
expanded arts funding in the city’s schools, as part of the provision of
quality education for the city’s working class majority, must be
thoroughly rejected.

Mana candidate John Minto is advocating a universal basic income. To be expected after Gareth Morgan talked to the weekend conference about exactly that. But Morgan's proposal, detailed extensively in The Big Kahuna, sets the tax free income at $11,000 per annum to replace all benefits and Super. Minto also mentioned doing away with WINZ. But $11,000 is well under the rate of Super and vastly under what a sole parent receives.

He openly admits it would also slash the incomes of superannuitants and
halve average payments of the Domestic Purposes Benefit. Many pensioners
would gradually lose ownership of their homes to pay the capital tax,
which could depress the value of all our houses (Morgan sees this as a
good thing as it would help young people to buy). Many solo parents on
benefits would have to either move into cheaper housing or share with
other adults to make ends meet...Solo parents on the DPB, who currently get about $20,000 to $30,000 a
year depending on allowances and the number of children, would lose out
badly. Morgan argues the state cannot afford to support a single person as if he or she was a two-parent household...Morgan is forthright about cutting payments to superannuitants - "they
get too bloody much anyway" - despite huge political backlashes against
previous governments who have dared to tamper with the pension scheme.

There are attractive aspects of a UBI eg it incentivises work by getting rid of high effective marginal tax rates.
But it penalises the rich and the poor alike.

A number of classical liberal thinkers have proposed it in the past eg Milton Friedman and more recently Charles Murray, so I try to stay open-minded about it. I recall even (some members of the) Libertarianz Party had a crack at advocating it. But I struggle to see how it fits with their overall principles given forcible transfer of wealth continues.

It seems to me that the UBI is an attempt to improve the complicated, contradictory and corrosive system social security has become. But it continues the subjugation of the individual to the state.

In a way if Mana adopt Morgan's proposal I will respect them for it. Because they will be telling the poor, their constituency, that in the immediate future they will be worse off, but their ability to improve their lot through their own efforts will be much improved.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Daily Blog poster Mike Treen is persisting with his theory that people are being denied an unemployment benefit despite my data showing the number of refusals was fairly constant between 2005 and 2013.
He has repeated his original claim in a new post entitled "Right wing lies continue".

...around the mid 2000s the Labour government introduced a severe case management regime that seemed designed to prevent people accessing their entitlements rather than encouraging them to. The numbers on the unemployment benefit began to fall dramatically faster than the HLFS unemployment number until the gap hit 50,000 in 2008.
The international crisis and recession of 2008-10 sent the HLFS unemployment numbers soaring but the new National government’s even more punitive regime managed to keep the numbers on a benefit from increasing anywhere near as fast....I believe that statement to be true and remains true."

I
believe that statement to be true and remains true. - See more at:
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/04/11/right-wing-lies-continue/#sthash.0Wv5lPAt.dpuf

I
believe that statement to be true and remains true. - See more at:
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/04/11/right-wing-lies-continue/#sthash.0Wv5lPAt.dpuf

Mike is still of the view that before the mid 2000s everybody who was unemployed received a benefit. People were not denied.

Below is data from a Department of Social Welfare Benefits and Pensions report for the financial year 1989/90. It's a photocopy from my own files and I don't have data for other years.

It shows that 175,736 unemployment benefits were granted and 16,972 were declined. That's an application refusal rate of 8.8%

In the 2011/12 year 110,244 unemployment benefits were granted and 13,417 were declined. That's an application refusal rate of 10.8%.

Being interviewed by Australian media, this remark was made by Helen Clark:

Reflecting on her time in New Zealand politics, particularly towards
the end, Clark said it was "regrettable" politics had become something
of a consumer commodity.
"Where you change the brand of toothpaste, you just change the brand
of government without giving too much thought to the taste or what it’s
going to do."

What a strange analogy. How many people are really that flippant about who they vote for?

What influences which toothpaste you use? I don't give a rat's to be honest. I buy what someone else asks me to, or what's on special, or whatever is making the most dazzlingly bogus claim. But it's decision that occupies my consciousness for a nano second once a fortnight at best.

Whereas the world I inhabit is constantly considering politics: policy and players. Whether I am listening to the radio, reading newspapers, blogging, having conversations or just out walking by myself, things political are there.

And I doubt anybody is just not buying toothpaste, so how does she account for the non-voters?

It's a stupid statement. But perhaps that is how Helen dealt with the ousting. Convincing herself that her rejection was just a casual choice to buy John Key because he would make our teeth whiter. Ooooh, I like the blue box better than the red one.

Doesn't it just scream of the contempt in which she holds New Zealanders? No wonder she had to get out of here.

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About Me

Lindsay Mitchell has been researching and commenting on welfare since 2001. Many of her articles have been published in mainstream media and she has appeared on radio,tv and before select committees discussing issues relating to welfare. Lindsay is also an artist who works under commission and exhibits at Wellington, New Zealand, galleries.