CMLL held some big matches the last few couple of years on New Year’s Day. Bobby Zavala & Disturbio beat Tigre Blanco & Leono for their hair a few months ago, and Hombre Bala Jr. & Super Halcon uncovered the Rayo Tapatios in 2012. CMLL hasn’t always run big matches on New Year’s Day, but one other of their most important matches took place on New Year’s Day 2005: Mistico defeated Averno to win the NWA World Middleweight Championship. It was Mistico’s first championship, it was Averno and Mistico’s first singles match against each other, and it was the moment where a sold out Arena Coliseo saw Mistico change from a quickly rising young to the new top star of lucha libre. There were important events which led up to that match, and there was more to come to continue growing Mistico’s legend, but that was the moment where the switch was flipped and where Averno became locked to Mistico as his eternal rival.

My calendar says today is April 26th, but CMLL is going for a New Year’s Day feel tonight as it hopes to recreate some history. It’s Mistico, it’s Averno, it’s their first singles match, it’s for a title, it’s the main event, and everyone expects it to end with the same La Mistica in the center of the ring. This time, it’s the vacant Mexican Welterweight Championship, vacated seemingly only so CMLL can ‘correct the mistakes’ of last year’s Busca un Idolo tournament. And that’s the large problem: the fans got behind Mistico I to make it to the top, even with super quick rise to get there. He was the right kind of guy doing the right kind of moves effectively. CMLL hasn’t found a way to get the people behind Mistico II, because there’s now a lot of more of those kind of guys then there were when the first guy came up. (There was a Volador, as this Mistico will be reminded loudly on Sunday.) The fans gravitated to other luchadors last year. CMLL can ignore that and put Mistico on his throne, but it doesn’t solve the underlining problems. If Mistico does win tonight, which is my assumption, there will be casual fans and curious fans there who will be okay with it, there will be loudly vocal hardcore fans very unhappy and he has a title in a promotion drowning in them. If Mistico loses tonight, he’s stuck as another high flyer in a promotion overstocked with them. Neither really helps turn Mistico in to the big star CMLL desperately wants and needs him to become.

Mistico needs his own Averno – not this Averno, but someone new so this feels less like a recreation – to be someone he can battle and overcome, giving him wins he seems to earn and aren’t just given. The other story of that New Year’s Day 2005 match was Averno becoming a bigger star along with Mistico. 2005 Averno was a well regarded midcard rudo, someone who would be a challenge for young Mistico to beat and who could work against him to create a great match, but not someone established at the top. Mistico I had to progress his way to the top against others trying to do the same. Mistico II is being thrown in with guys who are calling themselves the best rudo in the promotion. If Mistico II is beating the top guys in the promotion already, he doesn’t really ‘need the fan’s support’ and so won’t get much. If he’s got to fight to get there, then the fans might go with him a bit.

Rey Cometa and Namajague are two guys who’ve found their own rival, though this would seem to set the level for the loser. There’s nothing wrong with being a midcard guy who gets occasional big matches, but it’s hard to imagine Rey Cometa going much farther than that if he loses his mask and his hair in under a year’s time. A win in between only helps so much. Namajague losing his hair is less relevant to his career – his real one will be happening elsewhere – but it also seems to kill of interest in the NJPW guys coming in for apuesta matches for the next while. NJPW’s already announced the next novato to go on a training session will be doing it in Europe, not Mexico, so maybe CMLL’s just taking a break on Okumura based feuds for a while. The big matches feel rushed for this show, but if this card draws at all, it seems like it should be credited to this feud continuing on (and we’d also have to go back and give them extra credit for Dos Leyendas.)

The third big match for this Arena Mexico anniversary show is the Gran Alternativa final. I have less of feeling about who will win and more am hoping for the outcome. Hombre Bala Jr. has come along way from his debut, but the team with Super Halcon Jr. feels like it has potential and some momentum which would probably be disrupted if Bala wins. Boby Zavala (correct spelling, thanks Dr. Lucha!) is a deserving winner in his own right. His team with Disturbio is also good, but it has less time behind it. Neither of the guys are or should be going to the top right away, but both would be okay to move up from the Tuareg/Metalico/Starman tier to the Misterioso/Vangelis/Triton/Fuego tier. In a CMLL Gaceta interview, Zavala is thrilled by the possibility of joining the Revolucinarios, while Bala has put aside family feuds.