Bob Tisdale has done it again. The guy who thinks that “eyeballing” the correct lag and scale factor for fitting time series is better than multiple regression now comments on variability in climate models, not using climate models but using the multi-model mean.

Of course Anthony Watts regurgitates. Worse yet, Roger Pielke Sr. not only endorses Tisdale’s “analysis,” he actually suggests “I also urge Bob to submit this analysis to a peer-reviewed research journal so it can be assessed by the entire climate community.”

On a recent thread which was not about the temperature trend, but about Judith Curry’s mischaracterization of it, “Dan H.” stated that what mattered was the long-term trend, which was a steady increase at a rate between about 0.006 and 0.0075 deg.C/yr, and that the Berkeley data reinforced this idea. He later said that it was a steady increase plus a cyclic variation with period about 60 years. Let’s examine those ideas closely, shall we?

This post is not about the recent trend in global temperature or what the Berkeley data actually reveal about it. I already did that. This post is about the real problem with the public debate over global warming.

Judith Curry has posted about the “pause”. The whole thing was spurred by my asking for her “scientific basis” for her claims about temperature trend in the Berkeley data. She didn’t answer the question. Instead she substituted a different question.

The “question of the week” was: what’s your scientific basis for your own claims?

You said “Our data show the pause.” That means the Berkeley data. You didn’t say “maybe.”

You used that claim to accuse Richard Muller of “hiding the decline” — to a reporter from the Daily Mail. You also said “There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped.” The implication is clear, that if Richard Muller makes a claim about temperature trend you insist he have a scientific basis for it. So when you made a claim about temperature trend in the Berkeley data I asked you for your scientific basis.