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US predicted to finish top of medals table at Rio 2016 but Britain set to miss target badly

United States remain on target to finish top of the medals table at next year's Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, according to a latest projection published with a year to go, with Britain expected to win just 10 golds and Brazil predicted to sneak into the top 10 with nine.

The virtual medal table, released by Dutch company Infostrada Sports, considers results from World Championship and World Cup events across the Olympic sports, with changes taking place to the table as new results are compiled.

The US are predicted to win 99 medals, including 46 gold, an increase on the July projection and a haul which would see them finish comfortably clear of China.

They are predicted to win 72 medals, 31 of them gold.

Russia, unexpectedly pushed down to fourth place by Britain at London 2012, meanwhile, are estimated to win 75 medals, including 22 golds.

Fourteen of these US victories would come in athletics, it is forecast, a number that could change following the World Athletics Championships in Beijing later this month.

Germany, France and Australia are predicted to occupy the next three positions.

Australia are tipped to win 12 golds, five more than they managed in a largely disappointing campaign at London 2012.

Britain, who excelled on home turf to finish third on the medals table and ahead of Russia at London 2012, are estimated to finish on just 10 golds and 48 medals this time around, down from 29 gold and 65 medals.

That is a long way short of the target Team GB have been set by the British Olympic Association of Government funding agency UK Sport of winning more medals in Rio de Janeiro than they did at London 2012, which would make them the first host country to be more successful in the first Games after they have hosted them.

Japan are expected to finish eighth, with New Zealand and Brazil each forecast to surpass previous performances, placing ninth and 10th respectively.

Brazil are expected to be win nine golds, three times as many as they took in London.

Another projection by expert Luciano Barra, former sports managing director of the Italian National Olympic Committee and deputy chief executive of the 2006 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Turin, who has been praised for the accuracy of his predictions, also has Britain down to win just 10 golds in his latest forecast.Although pointing out how Australia, Greece and China all experienced a drop in performances four years after hosting the Games, UK Sport claim they remain focussed on its "aspirational goal" of becoming the first recent host nation to win more Olympic and Paralympic medals at the next Games.

This is thanks to continued Lottery Funding investment in high performance sport, they clai, with diving, fencing, hockey and taekwondo having all met their performance targets for the year so far.

Track cycling performed well below expectations at February's World Championships in Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, however, winning just three medals, and no golds.

Interestingly, Barra predicts China to top the overall medals table ahead of the US, meanwhile, with Russia third, France fourth and Australia fifth.

The relatively disappointing US performance at the World Aquatics Championshps which finished in Russia last week is partly attributed for this fall, with Barra noting how the US did select their team 12 months before and that at the same time they were holding their National Championships.

This will not happen next year, when Olympic Trials will be held shortly before the Games and Michael Phelps could be back on the team.

Timeline

About the author

Since joining insidethegames.biz in 2013, Butler has travelled to a variety of major global sporting events, including the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics and the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games as well as the most recent editions of the Asian, European and Pan American Games in Incheon, Baku and Toronto. He has also attended the last four International Olympic Committee (IOC) Sessions and has particularly enjoyed tackling the politics and diplomacy of the Olympic Movement.

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Fact of the day

At the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, Iranian judoka Arash Miresmaeili was disqualified for weighing in at nearly four pounds above the limit for his weight class of his under-66 kilograms match against an Israeli opponent Ehud Vaks in the first round. It was claimed Miresmaeili had gone on an eating binge to protest the International Olympic Committee's recognition of the state of Israel. Iran does not recognise the state of Israel, and Miresmaeili's actions won praise from high-ranking Iranian officials. Mohammad Khatami, the country's President at the time, was quoted as saying Miresmaili's actions would be "recorded in the history of Iranian glories". He was later awarded $125,000 by the Government - the same amount given to Olympic gold medallists.

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