The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

One of the most stirring spectacles of spring migration is the American Golden-Plover’s northward migration through the Midwest, en route to breeding grounds along the Arctic Ocean’s broad coastal plain. Audubon's climate model shows substantial loss of suitable climate space in summer as the southern portions of the present range become unavailable. Managers will also have to be attuned to indirect effects of climate change, not modeled here, on the golden-plover’s habitat: everything from surging numbers of tundra-devouring Snow Geese to more humans and infrastructure associated with commerce and energy development.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.