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Thursday, October 31, 2013

Game 6 of the World Series gave Fox a 39% bounce relative to Game 5, but that's pretty typical for a Game 6 under the current scheduling by day (see chart below). We've talked in the past about how the WS has "have" and "have-not" matchups; the verdict on this World Series is that it essentially put up "have-not" numbers (albeit better than the 2012 ones) even though it had what should've been a better matchup, which perhaps goes to show the damage that's been done to the sport in recent years. And the result means no Game 7 on Thursday. It's a bit of a relief for the other networks, who will already be dealing with a Halloween-related viewing depression.

The World Series appeared to have a bit of an effect on other networks, especially CBS (down across the board) and the CW, where Arrow and The Tomorrow Peopledipped again. My gut says that baseball shouldn't be affecting the CDub shows that much, but the good news is we get to see how they come back next week.

On ABC, a Modern Family repeat at 9/8c led to a relatively normal (or after finals, maybe slightly above normal) drop from Super Fun Night, though it looks worse in light of how well The Goldbergs held up with a similar lead-in drop the previous night. And 10/9c occupant Nashvillefollowed its depressed lead-in down again.

WORLD SERIES CHART:FULL TABLE:

Info

Show

Timeslot

True

A18-49

Skew

Last

LeLa

Rank

y2y

TLa

Ty2y

The Middle

2.2

35%

+0%

+0.0

n/a

3/5

n/a

+0%

-19%

2.1

Back in the Game

1.7

35%

+0%

+0.0

+0.0

5/6

n/a

+0%

-11%

1.5

Modern Family (R)

2.2

39%

-44%

-48%

2.1

Super Fun Night

1.7

42%

-19%

-0.4

-1.7

5/5

n/a

-19%

-29%

1.5

Nashville

1.4

34%

-13%

-0.2

-0.4

6/6

-22%

-10%

-20%

1.4

ABC:

-18%

-28%

Survivor

2.3

32%

-4%

-0.1

n/a

7/7

-8%

-4%

-6%

2.2

Criminal Minds

2.4

29%

-11%

-0.3

-0.1

6/6

-17%

-11%

-17%

2.2

CSI

1.7

23%

-19%

-0.4

-0.3

6/6

-29%

-19%

-28%

1.6

CBS:

-11%

-17%

Revolution

1.4

36%

+0%

+0.0

n/a

4/6

-53%

+4%

+17%

1.4

Law and Order: SVU (R)

1.1

33%

+0%

-32%

1.1

NBC:

+1%

-19%

World Series

5.7

38%

+39%

+1.6

n/a

1/6

n/a

+33%

+117%

5.6

Fox:

+33%

+117%

Arrow

0.8

43%

-11%

-0.1

n/a

4/4

-20%

-11%

-16%

0.8

The Tomorrow People

0.6

44%

-14%

-0.1

-0.1

4/4

n/a

-8%

-25%

0.6

CW:

-10%

-20%

Big5:

+7%

+15%

KEY (click to expand)

A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

True has all of them pretty close in the mid-1s, so I'm guessing that if SFN goes at midseason it's because: a) it's critically reviled; b) ABC can plonk a new show in the slot without residual schedule shuffling.

I kind of disagree with your gut here if only because Arrow and Supenatural were also badly hit by the world series last year (and Halloween viewing), but it got back up afterwards. It is a shaky sample at best to take conclusions but I would think they both have a shot at going back up next week.

To be honest, I think SFN still has a big advantage from going what is arguably the easiest competition. If you compare the fact that the tuesday comedies have to go up against the monster that is the voice (the same show that basically murdered CBS Monday comedies) AND the all mighty 18-34 fox power block, in addition to the also slightly stronger cw (supernatural>ttp) and cbs (ncis la>cm) shows, it really means that SFN is doing a poorer job.

In addition to omabin's comments, it got a 1.7 from a 2.2 while Goldbergs this week got a 1.7 from a 1.2. I also think last week's 2.1 from a 3.9 lead-in is not a sparkling performance, and Goldbergs' lead-in being an action drama rather than a sitcom makes it less obviously compatible anyway. Like, NCISLA's lead-in being NCIS is obviously going to go together well, but going from world-saving to a period family sitcom, eh. But I kinda err on the side of "kill them all," exc MF/Middle.