Pretty confident now that this is our seasonal total. 3rd most in the past 14 seasons. I would definitely say "odds" favor less snow next year .. we are due for an "average" or "below average" season. 35½" is average the past 14 seasons. We shall see in 12 months.

Checking out the past 33 seasons here in CPA .. Williamsport to be specific .. we have never had a 4th year in a row of increasing snow totals (if you count the start of the increases as "#1").

There have been 5 instances of 3 years in a row of increasing totals. For 3 of them, the next season produced less snow than that of the the 1st year. 1 was between the 1st and 2nd, and 1 was between the 2nd and 3rd.

Throwing out everything else.. Nino, Nina, EPA, NAO, sun spots.. etc... and ONLY using this data as a basis for forecasting snow totals for the following season.. I'd suspect the Williamsport Area could be in for a bummer of a year.. 20-25"?

Pretty confident now that this is our seasonal total. 3rd most in the past 14 seasons. I would definitely say "odds" favor less snow next year .. we are due for an "average" or "below average" season. 35½" is average the past 14 seasons. We shall see in 12 months.

I think this winter falls in at the #3 spot here as well for snow totals since I moved here in '02, behind '02-'03 & '10-'11. Don't have '02-'03 actual numbers for my valley's but my memory and Albany's records enforce the idea. Still need just over an 1" to reach the century mark...and just can't seem to get it. But currently snowing out...so maybe today into tonight

Speaking of analogs - Weatherworld does a "long shot" segment in which they use analog "set ups" to predict future weather.

Last October and then November they used analog set ups of: lackluster Atlantic Hurricane Season; and cool temp anom's for the preceding months (respectively) to completely nail the Feb 2015 and March 2015 cold temperature records for PA. I feel they even "split" the arrows with just how true their "aim" was.

They are around 9 for 13 "on target" (5 bullseyes) for this forecasting method.

They just verified those calls on last night's show, so if you visit them on the Web, it should be on their site soon

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High view of my winter outlook thoughts posted on Pg 5 of the LR Winter thread - this is not intended to be a forecast.

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FWIW (for my region mainly)- I am leaning towards favoring a cool to cold mid-late Autumn - especially compare to recent winters.Also, I like the idea of frequent chances of snow/mix type storms as early as post Thanksgiving - none of which would be on the heavy side. As December wears on, the cold intensifies and reaches maximum in early to mid January before lapsing into a long term exit for winter cold-- perhaps lasting well into March. I do not think (presently) that there would be a high chance for a major snowstorm until late in this time period.

RIP Greg Lake - I believe in Father Christmas, C'est La Vie.

"They said there'd be snow at Christmas, they said there'd be peace on Earth. Hallelujah, Noel! be it heaven or h3ll, the Christmas we get we deserve.

I knew the Jan-Mar period was cold here in Vermont...but didn't realize it was the coldest on record. My boss is president of his homeowner's association and this winter we nicknamed him the 'President of Poo' since he was in & out of the office dealing with frozen sewer lines for like 4 weeks there. The bills are now rolling in and homeowner's in his association are trying to throw him under the bus now...classic. But pulling some numbers for him, found this out: