söndag 13 oktober 2013

Lukewarmers and Cooling

The climate debate can be divided as follows depending on estimated global warming upon doubled atmospheric CO2:

Warmers (IPCC): 1.5 - 4.5 C.

Lukewarmers (Lindzen, Spencer): 0.5 - 1 C.

Skeptics: 0 C.

The observed "hiatus" of warming (slight cooling since 1998) presents a problem to both Warmers and Lukewarmers, since the absence of an expected steady warming under observed steadily increasing CO2, has to be explained as a cancellation effect from unknown natural variations.

The gap between Warmers and Lukewarmers is 0.5 C, which is within measurement error.

A Skeptic has an easier job and does not have to explain anything different from expectation to rationalize the observations, and in this sense seems to be better off according to Ockham's razor.