US elections 2012

Live coverage of the aftermath of Rick Santorum's big win in the latest round of voting in the GOP presidential nomination race

Mitt Romney speaks in Colorado last night, with the aid of only two teleprompters. Photograph: Rick Wilking/Reuters

10.00am: Welcome to the morning after the night before, which if you're Mitt Romney, is a very bad morning indeed. We'll be covering the hangover for the candidate formerly known as the frontrunner as he picks up the pieces of his campaign.

Here's a summary of the dramatic events of last night by our reporter Ryan Devereaux:

Rick Santorum swept the board with victories in both Minnesota and Colorado's caucuses, as well as a symbolic win in Missouri's "beauty contest" primary. With 95% of Minnesota's caucus votes reported this morning, Santorum emerged as the clear winner with 44.8%. Ron Paul followed with 27.2%. Romney came in third with 16.9% and Gingrich brought up the rear with 10.7%.

In Colorado – a state won easily by Mitt Romney in 2008 – Santorum caused the biggest upset. With all the votes in, Santorum clocked up 40.2%, followed by Romney who received 34.9%. Gingrich came in third with 12.8% and Paul fourth with 11.8%. Santorum's victory in Missouri was symbolic as the primary does not contribute ot the process of awarding delegates , but it drew over 200,000 voters.Santorum said his win last night was a victory for social conservatism. Speaking to supporters last night, Santorum set his sights higher than his chief rival in a bold speech. "I don't stand here to claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama," he said.

Mitt Romney's campaign attempted to brush off the devastating results. Aides to the former Massachusetts governor claim he didn't campaign very hard in Missouri and pointing out that John McCain lost a number of states before clinching the 2008 nomination. Still, the defeats are significant. The Romney camp had expected wins Tuesday night and in Minnesota he came in a distant third. Romney's loss in Colorado was the most galling. In 2008, swept to victory with 60% of the vote, handily beating McCain who earned just 19%.

Santorum will face significant challenges in the coming weeks as the race takes on a more national dynamic. He his considerably outmatched when it comes to campaign spending, particularly in comparison to Romney. Santorum's aides expect his Super PAC, Red, White and Blue, will receive a flood of support in light of the wins. It remains to be seen, however, if his momentum can withstand a potential deluge of attack ads from Romney's well-funded supporters.Voters are already caucusing in Maine, where the process ends on Saturday. After the Maine result is announced, there are 17 days before the next election.

10.21am: To get last night into perspective: on Saturday Rick Santorum finished fourth in Nevada with 10% of the vote. Three days later he won Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. Explain that please. (You may use both sides of the paper.)

These are not the hallmarks of a race with a dominant candidate. Nor, even, of a race with a candidate like John Kerry, the best of a somewhat weak lot of Democrats in 2004, but one whom the party settled upon fairly quickly.

Instead, this race bears more resemblance to something like the 1984 Democratic contest or the 1976 Republican race. There was a favorite in each of those contests — Walter Mondale in 1984 and Gerald Ford in 1976 — and they were ahead in the delegate count more or less from start to finish.

But both contests progressed through all 50 states and were not that far from going to the convention. A few more missteps for Mr Mondale or Mr Ford, and the outcome might have been different.

Yes the outcome "might have been different" but both were the front runners and favourites, and both edged it in the end. Both Mr Mondale and Mr Ford lost the subsequent general elections, it should be noted.

10.34am: Meanwhile, Republican candidates and Republicans in general are up in arms over the failure of the Keystone XL pipeline project, which would have piped oil from Canada to the US until it was blocked by the Obama administration.

It's outrageous and unacceptable to drive our friends the Canadians into the arms of China. Next to our national debt, the communist Chinese government is the biggest threat to American national security in the 21st century.

It always helps to reduce geopolitical matters to the status of high school dates for the prom.

At least some of Santorum's success on Tuesday can be traced to the serendipitous rise of several "culture wars" issues: the Komen/Planned Parenthood controversy, the Obama administration's decision to force Catholic hospitals to provide health insurance coverage that provides for contraceptives, sterilization and abortifacients, and a court ruling overturning California's ban on same-sex marriage.

Mitt Romney might have been the candidate to defeat Barack Obama on the economy, but with the unemployment rate falling – and the government appearing to overreach on "values" issues – voters may sense that Rick Santorum is better-positioned to draw a sharper contrast with Obama. He may be the right man at the right time.

I think that's right – because what else has changed since Santorum got trounced in Florida?

11.12am: No one cares what Donald Trump thinks but he was on CNN this morning for some reason and they asked him what he thought of Rick Santorum. Trump replied:

I don't get Rick Santorum. I don't get that whole thing.

Good news for Santorum, that's what's known as the "reverse Cronkite": if you've lost Trump, you've won middle America.

11.27pm: The GOP primary circus now moves on to Arizona (via Maine this Saturday) for a debate on 22 February and a vote six days later.

Arizona governor Jan Brewer. Photograph: Ross Franklin/AP

Arizona's Republican governor Jan Brewer hasn't endorsed a candidate yet – although she seems thrilled at the prospect, calling the contest "nasty but exciting," making it sound more like a slasher flick:

I think [the primary has] involved a lot more people with all the different debates that have taken place. It's gotten a little nasty but exciting.

12 noon: Part of the big story today is the weak turnout among GOP voters in every primary and caucus this year other than in South Carolina.

• 25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals

• The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July

• The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots

Could a Santorum nomination change those figures for the GOP? That's the interesting question.

12.22pm: Underneath the Republican primary hoopla, there is the more serious issue over the Obama administration's healthcare law mandate on the provision of contraception that doesn't allow any exceptions for religious healthcare providers.

Vice President Joe Biden and then-White House chief of staff Bill Daley, also Catholics, warned that the mandate would be seen as a government intrusion on religious institutions. Even moderate Catholic voters in battleground states might be alienated, they warned, according to the people familiar with the discussions.

As Biden and Daley appear to have predicted, it has become a big issue on the Republican campaign trail, to the degree that it wouldn't be a surprise if the White House sought to water it down or rescind the decision.

This action by the administration denies us Catholics our nation's first and most fundamental freedom, that of religious liberty. Unless this rule is overturned, we must be prepared to either violate our consciences, or drop health coverage for our employees (and suffer the penalties for doing so).

Expect to hear more about this from Santorum and Gingrich in the coming weeks – assuming the White House doesn't shift its ground earlier.

President Obama's re-election campaign ran more than 5,000 TV ads in six days last month, its first major advertizing blitz of the 2012 cycle, according to a new report by the Wesleyan Media Project.

The on-air offensive, which touted Obama's "unprecedented" record on ethics reform and investments in the green energy economy, targeted 25 media markets in six swing states: Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

It says that the top three cities that saw the Obama ad most were Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina and Green Bay in Wisconsin, where it aired a combined 933 times. The ad also ran more than 200 times in Madison, Wisconsin, Detroit, Cleveland, and Roanoke, Virginia.

1.20pm: Before we all get carried away with the prospect of President Santorum – try saying that out loud – and tied conventions, sensible person Jonathan Bernstein saysMitt Romney remains the front-runner and most likely GOP nominee.

Bernstein points out:

• Bob Dole in 1996 lost four of the first five states• George Bush in 2000 lost three of the first seven• John McCain in 2008 lost four of the first six, and five of the first eight

Conclusion? The point isn't to win every state or caucus:

It's about winning the nomination. And for that, it still sure looks like it's going to take some unexpected external shock for anyone but Romney to win it.

1.41pm: The Huffington Post's Laura Bassett reports from today's White House briefing over the healthcare law and contraception controversy:

WH spox Jay Carney told reporters Obama will work with religious affiliated orgs to implement birth control rule, but he will not back down.

Martin insisted he hadn't mean the comments to be homophobic, nor to incite violence against gays. He said he was merely making a joke against soccer.

The network said it had considered the reaction – which included a campaign by GLAAD for Martin to be fired – carefully before responding. Here's the CNN statement, made to Eric Wemple of the Washington Post:

Roland Martin's tweets were regrettable and offensive. Language that demeans is inconsistent with the values and culture of our organization, and is not tolerated. We have been giving careful consideration to this matter, and Roland will not be appearing on our air for the time being.

3.25pm: Why is Rick Santorum in Texas? There's no primary in the offing there. Answer – he's on a fundraising trip. He told reporters with him today that he has raised $400,000 in the past two days. That's still a pea in a Romney jar, but still, it's important that he can demonstrate momentum.

4.11pm: More evidence of disquiet within the Obama camp over the contraception mandate. The Washington Post reports that former Virginia governor Tim Kaine has spoken out against the policy that requires some religous employers to provide insurance coverage for prescription contraceptives.

Kaine, who is Obama's choice to head the Democratic National Committee, said in a radio interview:

I think the White House made a good decision in including a mandate for contraception coverage in the Affordable Care Act insurance policy, but I think they made a bad decision in not allowing a broad enough religious employer exemption.

This is something that's been talked about a lot today and I have definitely expressed my grave concerns to the White House about that.

4.45pm: Tomorrow marks the start of CPAC, the biggest gathering of Conservatives in the political calendar. Or, as Chris Moodyof Yahoo News puts it:

...the ultimate hajj for anyone who ever hung a poster of William F. Buckley in their dorm room or read Barry Goldwater's Conscience of a Conservative for fun.

Apparently, the event consists of "three days of panels, strategy sessions and booze-filled after-parties". Say what you want about Republicans, they sure know how to have fun.

We've assigned our DC bureau chief, Ewen MacAskill, to the conference. He should fit right in.

5.15pm: That's it for today – let's end with a summary of campaign news.

Rick Santorum claims to have raised $250,000 overnight, after sweeping to victory in the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses, and the Missouri "beauty contest" primary. Mitt Romney has attempted to put a brave face on his defeat, with his aides claiming that other Republican candidates, including John McCain, lost in early states.

Mitt Romney's campaign has attempted to portray Santorum as part of the Washington establishment. His spokeswoman, Andrea Saul, hit on Santorum's record in securing "pork-barrel spending" in Pennsylvania when he was a senator for the state. It's likely that the Romney campaign will ratchet up the attacks on Santorum.

Conservatives are gathering in Washington for CPAC, the biggest Republican conference in the political calendar. The event is expected to be buzzing with talk of Santorum's victory, and all the Republican presidential hopefuls are expected to speak – except Ron Paul, who has elected to stay on the campaign trail.

Voters are caucusing this week in Maine, where the results will be announced on Saturday. Otherwise there is a lull in the voting process until February 28, when Arizona and Michigan go the polls. Ordinarily, Romney be expected to win Michigan by a large margin.