Top 41 Misses Pitchers

Last week, I took a mid-season review of my pre-season Top 41 Mets Prospects which you can read here (1-10, 11-19, 21-29, 30-41).
Yesterday, I looked at the hitters who were generating some fan interest who were not in my Top 41, so today we’ll take on the pitchers. I gotta warn you, this isn’t awesome.

RHP Josh Stinson

Why He Missed the Top 41: I rarely believe in A-ball relievers unless they have huge scouting reports.2010: Stinson represented the B-Mets on the Eastern League All-Star team and has been a bright spot for a team whose pitching has been the second-worst by ERA (4.78) in the League.I Missed: Lots of strikeouts at the lower levels.Top 41 This Winter: Doubt it. 6.1 K/9 in AA is not enough for me. There’s some velo here, though.

ERA

G/GS

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

BB/9

SO/9

SO/BB

HR/9

09 – A – SAL

3.61

25/1

42.1

45

17

17

1

10

49

2.1

10.5

4.9

0.2

09 – A+ – FSL

1.98

25/0

36.1

22

12

8

0

19

35

4.7

8.7

1.8

0.0

10 – AA – EL

3.18

27/9

87.2

75

35

31

4

34

59

3.5

6.1

1.7

0.4

.

.

RHP Manny Alvarez

Why He Missed the Top 41: He had a lousy season in the St. Lucie bullpen at age 23.2010: Alvarez has been excellent out of the bullpen first for St. Lucie, and then Binghamton, and most recently for Buffalo before getting sent back to AA on Wednesday.I Missed: NothingTop 41 This Winter: Maybe, verging on likely. As a reliever with a four-pitch mix, maybe he’ll slot into the back end of the top 41 as a guy with a middle reliever ceiling.

ERA

G/GS

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

BB/9

SO/9

SO/BB

HR/9

09 – A+ – FSL

5.09

35/0

46

58

33

26

4

24

32

4.7

6.3

1.3

0.8

10- A+ – FSL

0.00

18/0

25.2

12

2

0

0

4

24

1.4

8.6

6.0

0.0

10 – AA – EL

2.7

19/0

23.1

21

8

7

0

3

30

1.2

11.7

10.0

0.0

10- AAA – IL

2.25

3/0

4

4

1

1

0

1

2

2.3

4.5

2.0

0.0

.
.

LHP Mark Cohoon

Why He Missed the Top 41: I just didn’t see enough pure stuff from Cohoon despite strong numbers in the New York2010: In terms of results, the 22-year old Cohoon was the top pitcher in the SAL in the first half. He did it by throwing his mid-80s fastball, which he can cut a little or make run, his changeup and curveball to both sides of the plate. Cohoon worked his tail off, and put himself in shape mentally and physically to go deep into games. Scouts didn’t love the overall package, but noted that as a lefty with feel, he’d pitch in the upper minors, and give himself a chance. After Cohoon’s SAL All-Star game appearance, the Mets skipped Cohoon straight to AA, skipping St. Lucie. he’s struggled at the AA level mostly because when he’s been in the strike zone, he’s been hittable. His walk rate is up a little, but his strikeout rate is consistent with his SAL rate. His opponents’ batting average in AA is .313, in the SAL it was .313.I Missed: Honestly, not much. Top 41 This Winter: Back half, most likely, depending on second half results.

ERA

G/GS

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

BB/9

SO/9

SO/BB

HR/9

09 – SSA – NYP

2.15

14/14

92

69

26

22

4

20

70

2.0

6.8

3.5

0.4

10 – A – SAL

1.30

13/13

90.1

68

15

13

2

17

75

1.7

7.5

4.4

0.2

10 – AA – EL

7.03

5/5

24.1

31

21

19

2

6

20

2.2

7.5

3.3

0.7

.
.

RHP Brandon Moore

Why He Missed the Top 41: Despite throwing the first no-hitter in Cyclones history in 2009, I can’t get excited about RHP with below average fastballs2010: Moore’s season started a little bit late, but once the 24-year old found his rhythm, he helped carry the Gnats to the first half championship. He could throw his slider for strikes, and he threw it a lot. In the SAL, again, if you can throw a breaking ball for strikes, that’s all you need. His fastball was mostly 87 mph.I Missed: NadaTop 41 This Winter: Doubt it.

ERA

G/GS

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

BB/9

SO/9

SO/BB

HR/9

09 – SSA – NYP

2.09

13/13

82

61

23

19

4

17

71

1.9

7.8

4.2

0.4

10 – A – SAL

2.49

14/12

79.2

62

28

22

5

11

98

1.3

11.1

8.9

0.6

10 – AA – FSL

2.70

5/5

30

26

11

9

1

13

25

3.9

7.5

1.9

0.3

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There are 9 comments

I’ve posted this before about Moore. I know he doesn’t have the velo you like, but there is something about this kid that makes me think he can be one of the exceptions to the rule, and more than an org. arm like most RH pitchers with below average fastballs. This guy just seems to know how to pitch – moves the ball around the strike zone, good control, throws all his pitches for strikes and works up/down and in/out, using the whole plate. Maybe this is more my heart than my head, but feel like he has a knack for pitching that makes him different.

What does Josh Stinson have to do to get some respect? No, he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out, but he seems to find a way to win games and give his team a chance. Last night, he got 4 double plays in big spots yesterday to bring his record to 8-1 on the season with a 3.04 ERA and he was an Eastern All-Star representative. Granted, he did allow 13 runners on based via 8 hits and 5 walks, but only gave up 1 run. It sounds like he didn’t have his best stuff and went 7 innings and fought hard to help his team win. I don’t have a stat for that, but I would say he’s ranked pretty high in that category behind RA Dickey. He’s not relieving anymore and in the starting rotation and he’s taking a big step forward this season as far as his development is concerned. Hopefully he keeps up the good work so you can list him in your Top 41 list and maybe be a breakout star like Lucas Duda has been for us this year.

BTW
“We’ll play this game again. Go to fangraphs and find me all of the successful MLB RHP who average 87 mph.”

Striking guys out would be a good first step for Stinson. MLB hitters are more powerful than those at any other level. Where AA guys might single, MLB guys might double or homer. Pitchers to be successful, must take the ball out of play via the strikeout or eliminate the XBH threat via the grounder, or ideally, do both.

Oh I agree with you, I just thought that was a little harsh of a response. He was just trying to explain why he thought Brandon Moore should be ranked higher. I understand where you are coming from and like I said, don’t disagree, I just think comments like that will discourage people from commenting here because they are afraid you will attack them for trying to tell you how they feel about certain players, that’s all.

Brandon Moore has put up some good #’s in terms of wins & losses, but like you said it gets harder and harder as you move up the levels to deceive hitters and he’s having trouble already after his recent promotion. Stinson on the other hand has velocity and has proven he could strike guys out before, he just doesn’t seem to be doing it as much as a starter now. If you look as his A ball K/9 #’s and his numbers now, it’s night and day. I wonder if there was a philosophy talk about pitching to contact as a starter? That’s my guess atleast.

By the way, I think I’m falling in love with Cory Vaughn. I know Keith Law doesn’t like him, but I just watched him play live 2 times and once again on TV and he’s hit a HR in everygame and played extremely well in the field with outfield assists. This guy DEF has to be on your TOP 41 going into next season. He’s a STAR in the making!! I hope atleast, he has been leading the NYPL or in the top 5 in almost every important category. Wally mentions him and Cecciliani directly every time someone interviews him about potential major league players on that roster. At this rate, Wally, Vaughn and Cecciliani can all move up together. :-)

I’m excited about what Vaughn is doing so far, but I’m not calling him a future star just yet. He’s a college player dominating the NYP league…it’s certainly a good sign especially since Brooklyn tends to be a pitcher’s paradise, but at the same time, it’s way too early to say that he’s a star. I’d hold my judgement until he does it in St. Lucie and Binghamton.

Just remember Brad Holt’s magical 2008 season in Brooklyn…a lot of people around here (including myself) thought he was a future top of the rotation arm and just look how far he’s fallen now.

Fair enough, I can’t argue with that logic. As a Mets fan, it’s hard to get excited about anything right now and I think this kid is something that makes me think big things based on his performance. As soon as he was drafted, I was a big advocate for him given his pedigree and his coaching (Tony Gwynn) in college and so far he’s been making me look good. But, as you said, it’s still way early and time will tell how he ends up panning out. The one thing that really makes me think he’s the real deal is how Wally Backman said that Vaughn will be an All-Star major leaguer during an interview recently. I think Wally Backman should have an idea of what it takes to not only get there, but to stay there and Vaughn definately has the tools. But again, “Bad Brad” Holt, nuff said!

I’m not arguing with your logic or conclusions (to not include him), and readily acknowledge that I am ignoring the facts and logic; and rather relying on a gut feeling based upon what I see/hope the kid has in him.

And Jonesy, don’t worry. I’m pretty thick-skinned and i didn’t take it as attacking by Toby, mainly because he was just stating the facts – we have had this conversation before and there is no logical way to argue in favor or Moore. It is just a leap of faith here based upon something I see in him.