Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

NFL Playoffs, Overtime, and Winning the Coin Toss

Update 31 Jan 2010: added overtime results for 2010 playoffs.

Since 2001, there have been (at this writing) 98 playoff games
played. Of these, 12 (12.2%) have gone to over time. Here is a
brief summary, for each game, of the team that won the toss, and the
result of their first drive:

It should also be observed that of the 4 games listed above that
were won on the opening overtime drive, the 2009 Saints were the only team that didn't score last in the regulation period. Which suggests to me
that the problem is in the losing teams' defenses, at least as much
as which way the coin-toss went the sample space is too small to draw any useful conclusions.

Comments:

2001 Raiders @ Patriots was the "tuck rule" game. The
Raiders offense never crossed mid-field after the end of the third
quarter. The Patriots scored the final 10 points in regulation,
and drove 61 yards in 15 plays for the game-winning field
goal.

(Since 2001) Most playoff games do not go to overtime.

(Since 2001) Most playoff games that do go to overtime are not
won on the opening drive.

(Since 2001) In the remaining 3 games, there is at least some
evidence that poor defense was as much at fault as the mis-called
toss for losing the game.