Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank. – Swing States poll: Women push Romney into lead

IF YOU weren’t sure how important Candy Crowley’s role is tomorrow and why everyone is pitching what it could mean, the latest poll revealing a move to Mitt by women draws the picture clearly.

Connecting with average voters isn’t Mitt Romney’s strong suit. Tuesday’s town hall is a chance for him to wipe this image away, while adding to his first debate performance impression.

Chuck Todd, political director of NBC News, beat the USA Today/Gallup Poll, analyzing the importance of tomorrow’s debate on “Morning Joe” this morning. It likely got the attention of both campaigns, because he teased what is now showing in the new poll.

TODD: I think we’re both being very hesitant to hype this like that. But I feel like this one is that big. Because, you know, there’s something that happened in the campaign. It wasn’t just that Romney got in with that first debate and it sort of — you know, at first you heard Democrats saying oh, Republicans are just coming home. And that’s what tightened the polls. And in fact, I actually heard some Republicans say that. I have to say, in the private data that I’ve heard about over the last couple of days and the last 72 hours plus what you’re seeing, I feel like there has been a structural shift. We’re no longer in this “it’s even, but the president has these advantages.” The “but the president has these advantages” in the battleground states I think is gone. Yes, the president has an advantage in Ohio, but we’re starting to see a consistent Romney, very narrow, but a Romney lead in places like Florida. We’re seeing Colorado totally dead even. Iowa closing. So I think that there is something structural that happened. And that’s why this debate, critical time. If the president doesn’t show up he could end up in a deficit where I don’t know if one more debate could make it up. [transcript via Newsbusters]

The Obama campaign has to know this and it’s certain Barack Obama isn’t going to allow what happened in the first debate to repeat.

Chuck Todd goes on to say that if Obama doesn’t show up, so to speak, it could solidify what Romney gained in the first debate to such an extent that the last debate won’t be enough to fix Obama’s “deficit” with voters.

I’d add one other thing. That is, even if Obama has a good performace, if Romney battles him equally while also relating to the voters asking the questions, it is likely to make as big a difference to his image as the first debate did.

We will see what the rest of Monday’s polling data brings, but The Washington Post and ABC News poll has the potential to be influential on the forecast, in the same way that a Pew Research poll showing a sharp break to Mr. Romney was last week.

… You should be able to see from this why The Washington Post’s poll is potentially important. With it, the case is clearer that Mr. Obama has recovered from his post-debate lows, although he has almost assuredly not made up all the ground he lost.

Silver may want to weigh in on the shift by women, because we will be the difference no matter who wins.

One other thing to note, my initial instincts that Virginia would go red for Romney, after all the hype of an eventual Obama win in the state, looks to be manifesting. But it is incredibly tight.

Shorter: tomorrow’s town hall matters. …to both candidates.

It also proves what I’ve been writing, which is women no longer vote on reproductive rights alone, something most women who vote can take care of themselves. We are economic voters, because we are CFO’s of our families, as Maria Shriver proved in her study, but also because we have our financial dreams beyond what is connected to a spouse.

One cautionary note is that already the Gallup numbers are being considered as an outlier. Team Obama has sent a memo out with supporting evidence to rebut this USA Today/Gallup poll.

Ã¯Æ’Ëœ The latest Gallup/ USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.

Ã¯Æ’Ëœ Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ Gallup’s likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ That year, Gallup’s registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.

Ã¯Æ’Ëœ Gallup’s data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ In 14 state polls conducted across 8 swing states since October 4, President Obama leads among women in every single one.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ President Obama has a double-digit among women lead in 10 of these polls, including several surveys where the overall horserace is close or the President is behind.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ On average, President Obama leads among women by 10.3 points and overall by 2.3 points. (See table on page 2 for results)

Ã¯Æ’Ëœ We believe the problem with Gallup’s outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ In Gallup’s current survey, Obama leads women by 53-44 among registered voters in the Battleground States, which is closely aligned with results from other pollsters.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ It is only when the likely voter screen is applied that their results become so out of step.

Ã¯Æ’Ëœ Several of the likely voter questions create a bias against groups inclined to support Obama.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ For example, Gallup asks voters both whether they have voted in their precinct before and where people in their neighborhood go to vote.
Ã¯Æ’Â¼ This creates a bias against registered voters who more likely to move from time to time, such as young voters, renters, minorities and urban dwellers, all of whom tend to lean toward the President.

Ã¯Æ’Ëœ In the past, Gallup’s justification for such outlying numbers is that they are providing a snapshot of voter attitudes during a particular time period, not predicting the outcome of the election. But this implausible result among women appears to not even provide an accurate reflection on the electorate today, making its value questionable.

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39 Comments

Art Pronin
October 15, 2012 at 4:45 pm

Oh boy. Did that one debate do what happened to carter vs reagan in their sole 1980 debate? Has Mitt become “mod Mitt” etc now and gives voters the final chance they waited for to move away from obama?

PeggySue
October 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm

I find it very difficult to believe that women in any significant number are ready to vote against their own interests. Unless, of course, large numbers have signed on for lobotomies and are with the Tea Party leader in Mississippi who has stated that women should be barred from voting altogether–we’re too emotional, even diabolical.

The Obama team rebuttal agrees with you, not specifically about Mississippi, but you get what I’m saying.

cjoblak@hotmail.com
October 15, 2012 at 5:32 pm

Women know that abortion and birth control will not be going away if Romney is elected. We are more concerned with having a true economic recovery. Personally, I don’t trust Obama and I think his foreign policy sucks. He and his staff have lied about Benghazi and blame everyone else and their brother while trying to cover their big whoppin asses.

Ga6thDem
October 15, 2012 at 7:14 pm

Well I guess there’s always that odd bird that thinks the GOP has done a fantastic job in the past. Actually foreign policy is where Obama actually does okay because Romney sounds like a puppet with Dick Cheney’s hand up his behind. Were you this bothered about Bush lying about the WMD’s or his inability to read a PDF both of which cost thousands of American lives?

cjoblak@hotmail.com
October 15, 2012 at 9:40 pm

Bush gave Saddam Hussein plenty of time to come clean as I recall. I also recall Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Kerry all coming out nationally and giving their blessing. So, what’s your problem? Having a problem blaming any high ranking democrats for their role in the invasion of Iraq??/

And Bullshit on Romney following Dick Cheney’s lead on foreign policy, although from the looks of the disastrous cesspool currenlty swirling in the Middle East, it appears anybody’s foreign policy doctrine would be a step up from Obama’s failed appeasement policy.

Ga6thDem
October 16, 2012 at 12:43 am

You know what? Saddam did come clean and say that he didn’t have any WMDs. Too bad George W. Bush couldn’t or wouldn’t listen.

You are trying to make more excuses for George W. The buck stops with the president I guess only if he has a D by his name. If he has an R like George W. you guys will make excuse after excuse for any amount of stupidity.

Have you looked at the foreign policy advisers Romney has? The majority of them are straight out of the Bush/Cheney administration. See even you sound like Dick Cheney. Anybody who doesn’t follow the failed “Bush Doctrine” in the middle east is an appeaser. ROTFLMAO.

secularhumanizinevoluter
October 16, 2012 at 5:27 am

1.”Bush gave Saddam Hussein plenty of time to come clean as I recall.”

2.” I also recall Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Kerry all coming out nationally and giving their blessing.”

Voting on the use of Military action as a LAST resort based on PROVEN lies from the Bush crime syndicate is exacty 180 degrees from your lie.

3,” So, what’s your problem?”

Other then your apparent pathological inability to tell the truth about ANYthing you mean?

4.” Having a problem blaming any high ranking democrats for their role in the invasion of Iraq??/”

See answer to #2

5.”And Bullshit on Romney following Dick Cheney’s lead on foreign policy, although from the looks of the disastrous cesspool currenlty swirling in the Middle East, it appears anybody’s foreign policy doctrine would be a step up from Obama’s failed appeasement policy.”

And male bovine fecal matter on the male bovine fecal matter that apparently fills the void in your cranium where in normal humans a brain resides.

newdealdem1
October 16, 2012 at 1:10 am

Don’t waste your key strokes, Ga with this woman. She’s a reactionary conservative who never, never criticizes her own unlike those of us who post here who are Dems or Liberals or Independents who have criticized both sides.

cjoblak@hotmail.com
October 16, 2012 at 9:39 am

You’re full of it, to, New deal.

And you are calling me a reactionary???? LOLOLOOL , Can you read what you all write??? LOLOLOL

And Sec’s just a waste of time, can’t even bother to read past the first line of his gibberish.

I’m a Jill Stein supporter, and I actually appreciate your posts. I really hate when people on either side accuse those who disagree with them of “voting against their own interests.” Women don’t need to be told what “their interests” are- neither do men, gays, transgender, Hispanics, rich, poor, etc. etc. ETC. Because in the end, our interests are ALL THE SAME- we want decent jobs, fairness and honesty in government, and PEACE. The idea that the only thing women care about is Abortion and Birth Control is ridiculously narrow-minded, and how dare anyone judge anyone else’s reasons for voting, anyway?

I don’t know if voting for Dr. Stein is in my “self-interest.” I’m pretty sure it’s in society’s BEST INTEREST. Pardon me if how I vote doesn’t fit someone else’s notion of what my best interest is. And by Pardon Me, I mean something nowhere near as polite.

cjoblak@hotmail.com
October 15, 2012 at 9:49 pm

Amen, Jjamele.

Solo
October 15, 2012 at 11:20 pm

Both Mitt Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan are on record saying they want to overturn Roe! It’s in the Republican party platform!

secularhumanizinevoluter
October 16, 2012 at 5:21 am

1.”Women know that abortion and birth control will not be going away if Romney is elected.”

FACT-Romney has said he would DEFUND Planned parenthood
FACT-Lyin Ryan supported Akins and the rest of the misogynistic repugnantklan/teabagger/UBERChristians in trying to pass fetal Personhood and stating that abortion should be outlawed with NO EXCEPTIONS!

2.” We are more concerned with having a true economic recovery.”

Then you should be happy, the deficit is down over 100 million and unemployment is the lowest it’s been since the torturer in chief disgraced the oval office.

3.” Personally, I don’t trust Obama and I think his foreign policy sucks.”

Personally I don’t trust delusion Obama haters.

4.” He and his staff have lied about Benghazi and blame everyone else and their brother while trying to cover their big whoppin asses.”

WHOM else have they “blamed”?

newdealdem1
October 16, 2012 at 11:42 pm

“Women know that abortion and birth control will not be going away if Romney is elected. cjoblack”

Oh, really? A question for you. Do you believe believe in a woman’s right to choose an abortion? Because for all of your blather here “women know that abortion and birth control will not be going away if Romney is elected” is pure BULLSHIT not only from the mouth’s of Romney/Ryan but from your own precious mouth.

Here is what you said to me when I said (to Marie and not to you) that the current GOP’s obsession regarding women controlling their own bodies and trying to enact the most egregious laws to curtail women’s bodily autonomy was comparable to an American-style Taliban/ authoritarian mindset (and many on this blog feel the same and not only on this blog). This is what you said to me:

“By the way, while you are talking about dark and radical, murdering a baby is about as dark and evil as you can get. You are just like the Taliban, condoning murdering innocents. cjoblak”

How radical and reactionary is that comment. About as radical and reactionary as one can be on whatever blog, liberal or conservative.

Your caviler comment about the Romney/Ryan ticket: “”Women know that abortion and birth control will not be going away if Romney is elected.” is pure Bullshit given your revealing and offensive comment to me and by proxy and implication to Taylor who has been wonderfully candid about her own abortion. You cannot support a woman’s right to choose and at the same time post that offensive and radical and extreme comment. Again, as follows:

“By the way, while you are talking about dark and radical, murdering a baby is about as dark and evil as you can get. You are just like the Taliban, condoning murdering innocents. cjoblak”

You have no excuse, cjoblak.

fangio
October 15, 2012 at 4:59 pm

Never under estimate the stupidity of the American voter; man or woman.

But it absolutely changed the game, especially considering Romney was down for the count before the first debate.

secularhumanizinevoluter
October 15, 2012 at 5:34 pm

Well Joe showed him the way…..nail Mittens for each and every lie right away and smile like the sun shining on a spring day while you do it.

cjoblak@hotmail.com
October 15, 2012 at 9:43 pm

Joe Biden was a joke the other night. He was not an asset to the campaign with his awfu performance the other night. He definitely showed his true colors, like an asshole.

Ga6thDem
October 16, 2012 at 12:52 am

The only reason the GOP is yammering about all this is because their “darling” Paul Ryan was exposed as an empty suit. It reminds me of the same response the GOP had to Lloyd Bentsen saying to Dan Quayle “you’re no Jack Kennedy” After that abysmal debate performance by Ryan, I’m sure he’s destined to follow Quayle’s footsteps.

cjoblak@hotmail.com
October 16, 2012 at 9:45 am

Ryan’s performance was not by any means “abysmal”. You are such an exaggerator. LOLOLOL

secularhumanizinevoluter
October 16, 2012 at 10:37 am

If kicking Lyin Ryan’s ass and pointing out his and Mittens lies is being an asshole.

Ga6thDem
October 15, 2012 at 7:16 pm

Maybe Obama can hold his own this time. I think that’s the best anybody can probably hope for at this point because frankly Obama is just a bad debater, he’s bad about thinking on his feet and he’s bad in town hall environments.

He such a bad President that as of today under Obama the Stock Market has gone up 5475K points! That is the greatest point increase in any 3.5 year period in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial average!

He is such a bad President that he is the first and only occupant of the oval office to push through a comprehensive healthcare plan that extends healthcare to 33 million out of the 50 million in this country who don’t have healthcare.

He’s been such a bad President that there hasn’t been a repeat of 9/11!

Obama has been such a bad President that he’s only managed to put two women on the Supreme Court, more than any other individual President in history.

Solo
October 16, 2012 at 12:29 am

He’s is such a bad President he is beating Romney by an average of 20 points in the state where Romney was the Governor. Who do you think know Romney and what he would bring to the White House? You or the people who use to live under his rule?

So you are included in that small band of idiots who think that Al Gore should have been disqualified from any challenge in the 2000 election because he failed to carry Tennessee? Because that’s what you are saying here.

BTW, congratulations on finding the “period” key on your laptop.

Ga6thDem
October 16, 2012 at 12:56 am

You know what’s funny? All the solutions he has proposed for the most part are Conservative supply side economic solutions. I guess you must have forgotten that Geither is a Republican.

What Romney and “boy wonder” lol Ryan are proposing is exactly what has been done in Ireland and Ireland has 14% unemployment. So while Obama’s decisions haven’t been good, Romney is going to put those on steroids.

Solo
October 16, 2012 at 1:23 am

President Obama’s decisions have not been good? Wow!

fangio
October 15, 2012 at 11:56 pm

Women who vote with their pocketbooks may find that they own nothing else; including their bodies.

TPAZ
October 16, 2012 at 3:01 am

Write this down. Obama is a politician. Romney is a salesman. A politician cannot outsell a salesman. However, a salesman can out sell a politician. Obama cannot catch Romney. In chess, the player that makes the fewest mistakes win. This presidential race now is Romney’s to lose. Obama can no longer affect the outcome of this race.

secularhumanizinevoluter
October 16, 2012 at 5:37 am

1″Write this down.”

Yes, there should be a record of the delusional sputterings.

2.” Obama is a politician.”

OMGawd what don’t even exist!!!!!! REALLY?!!!

3.” Romney is a salesman.”

Other then shipping American jobs to China exactly what has Mittens sold?

4.” A politician cannot outsell a salesman.”

? Maybe not, but a POLITICIAN can whoop the tar outta some bottom feeding vulture capitalist.

5.” However, a salesman can out sell a politician.”

Good for Obama Mitt da Twit ain’t a ‘salesman” huh?

6.” Obama cannot catch Romney.”

?!!! Except for WAY out of the mainstream polling or polls that JUST changed the voters from registered to “most likely” Obama has been AHEAD of Mitt da Twit the whole race?

7.” In chess, the player that makes the fewest mistakes win.”

Soooooo….Mitt da Twit has lurched from one debacle to another the ENTIRE campign but had ONE good “debate” performance and you call that “making the fewest mistakes”?!!!! Interesting.

8.” This presidential race now is Romney’s to lose.”

OMGawd what ain’t even there…do you even READ the drivel you are typing before you hit the submit icon?

9.” Obama can no longer affect the outcome of this race.”

CLEARLY you don’t….

ladywalker68
October 16, 2012 at 9:44 am

If women who support Switch-A-Mitt do so because they are voting with their pocketbooks, they need to know:

1. Romney didn’t have a clue what the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act was all about let alone support it, and yes, women still do earn a lot less than men for the same job title/work, etc. He doesn’t care about the economics of women in the work place because he believes their place is pushing out his babies and fixing him tasty food when he is not campaigning…

2. Romney’s lack of openness on his tax plan certainly indicates that if you are a woman (or anyone else for that matter) and you have a mortgage on your house, you can kiss the home mortgage interest deduction goodbye and probably the child care tax credit as well. These are the few breaks REAL middle class women/people have on their taxes.

3. Do I have to mention again the economics of having a child? If the Dynamic Duo of Right Wing Bat Sh_t Crazy Mitt and Robbin’ Ryan have their way, there will be lack of access to affordable birth control and danger of Roe V, Wade being over turned (in spite of the assurances this will not happen…I am not convinced) so unless women just stop having sex (which I doubt their husbands and boyfriends will allow) there will be babies and raising kids costs a lot of money….

In other words, if you are a REAL middle class woman (and that means you earn far less than $250,000 per year), Mittens will stick it to you economically as he sticks it to the rest of the REAL middle class.

If you are a woman, Romney is NOT the answer to improving your personal economy.

[…] Good news: 9:06PM EDT October 15, 2012 – WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank. […]