Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 15, 2012):

I probably should have moved The Finder to "certain to be canceled" immediately after it was moved to Friday night, but I had other shows I wanted to put into the headline and I was gone last week and wrote my previous Fox renew / cancel post way in advance. Nevertheless, The Finder's woeful ratings on Friday confirm the obvious. It's certain to be canceled.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Wow, this season has been a true disaster for FOX. All of its new shows (with the exception of New Girl) are about to get cancelled. I bet even Touch would be a candidate for certain cancellation if it weren’t airing behind American Idol – quite frankly, its ratings are embarrasing considering the lead-in it has.

If had it my way I would give Alcatraz a second shot. It won’t happen, though, I’m afraid.

Jerry

Touch… I watched the pilot episode when it aired in January and it was okay. I had been DVR-ing all the new ones since last month but haven’t actually watched any of them. My wife and I just finally decided we had no interest and I deleted them off and canceled the season pass last night.

tomko44

Its a shame about The Finder. It is a fun and quirky show. Fun to watch. No idea why it never took off. I guess it was a little to quirky and intelligent for the masses. Not much left for me on network TV. Thank god for cable!

The Finder is a good show but never given a chance. The move to Friday killed the show – didn’t have enough time to grow.

Ming

With The Finder certain to be canceled, will Alcatraz have a better chance at renewal? (Probably not. . . )

Tom

@tazzer68
The Finder had the HUGE American Idol’s lead-in to build on.

alexjones

I heard there was going to be a decision on fringe’s fate this week, dunno if it’s true or not.

Tom

Touch isn’t doing great, but I would highly suspect it gets an initial spackle order for 13 episodes, probably tentatively scheduled for Mon@9 in Spring.

In actual new material, I am surprised no one has mentioned that The Flintstones has (at least temporarily) been put on hold.

I would assume it is too late for any new Fall animateds (there’s enough Simpsons, AD, FG, CS, and BB to cover Fall anyway), but the sudden gap in the schedule significantly increases Bob’s chances of another season.

Drew

I’m curious. The Finder got 2.3 in its last Thursday airing with the AI lead-in and it was considered a flop and moved to Friday’s to die. Touch replaced it and its last airing in that same slot after AI was also a 2.3 and its considered fairly successful and expected to be renewed. Why the difference? Is it because Touch premiered to a higher rating originally and FOX is giving it the benefit of the doubt?

Am I missing something?

Richard Steven Hack

Look at that long list of cancelled shows – and look at how much lower Fringe is than those shows – and then tell me Fringe has ANY shot at being renewed, despite the rumors about cheap licensing and a last season of 13 episodes.

It’s insane. Fringe is doomed.

I’d give Alcatraz a much better shot at being renewed, even given how terrible that show has been, than I would Fringe.

Fox could run ANYTHING in Fringe’s slot and make more money even if WB gave it away for free. Why scrape for 13 more money-losing episodes when the show already has the necessary 88 and doesn’t even have a syndication deal in the works yet and no guarantee it will get one?

were123

@Drew
The Finder drew very weak audience through it’s premiere, with a 1.7. At one point it drew 2.8 after AI, however it fell back to 2s. Touch is doing slightly better avarage; It was moved to Thursdays to ensure it could get a season 2, why? FOX loved it’s 3.9 back on January and tried to keep those ratings by moving it after AI. Touch drew 3.3, 2.8 and two 2.3s, so it avarages higher than The Finder and probably has the chance to grab some more viewers, while The Finder was already bleeding vierwership; after it’s 2.8, it got a 2.2 and then a 2, Touch hasn’t got there yet. So, in the end, it was moved to Friday, maybe with FOX hopping it could draw smilar rating, like Fringe did when it was first moved to Fridays, but it lost half audience and even then kept losing viewers. And while WB is fighting for keeping Fringe on the air with woeful rating, reducing dramaticly the licence fee, The Finder has not such luck as it is on it’s first season and it wouldn’t present any benefit by being renewal, the cost of mantaining that show would be considerably higher than the revenew you can make, so that’s why it’s certain cancellation.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“In actual new material, I am surprised no one has mentioned that The Flintstones has (at least temporarily) been put on hold.”

Pilots, even heavily hyped ones, are not on our radar. We just don’t have the bandwidth.

Beth

I just hope they put Alcatraz and Fringe/reality on Fridays next season and not Bones.

And The Finder should’ve been cancelled a long time ago, jmpo.

Tommy Mickens

Well, something that makes sense by Bill Gorman.

The Finder IS certain to be cancelled and Alcatraz’s odds are now better than before at getting some sort of renewal with less shows doing better than it (though still unlikely, but I’d like to see a second season for them). I hope they also factor in that Alcatraz is the ONLY one of the new three (Alcatraz/Finder/Touch) that didn’t have the benefit of airing after AI so Touch’s ratings are more inflated than they’d be airing in the same slot as Alcatraz. And even so, Touch may not level off at 2.3 and may sink lower and lower.

Alcatraz for 2012-2013 Fridays!

Drew

@were123

That makes sense, but hasn’t Touch dropped in ratings every week since then? And I think The Finder actually went back up to 2.3 in its last Thursday airing. I would like to have seen how both fared without the AI lead-in.

Rebecca

Touch is good – even though I can’t stand the gruff voices of Keifer Sutherland and Danny Glover in the same show (only show with two voices like that I can stand is 30R whenever Will Arnett is in it with Alec Baldwin). I like NG but I don’t think Zooey D is the best thing about it – when she raises her voice (yells, in her way) I think her acting skills drop a lot; reminds me of the “intense acting” part of the class Blaine’s big bro taught on Glee (great scenes with him last week). NG for me is more about the funny guy roommates. Still hoping Alcatraz gets renewed, but if it doesn’t, oh well. ND was entertaining. I’m glad RH is returning. Will BI get a summer burn off if they finished making any other episodes?

Mike

American Dad! Is out of production. Artists are being let go every day. There are about a
Season’s worth of shows stockpiled, then that’s it. And it does better consistently than Cleveland:-(