Monday, January 7, 2013

After Knucklehead Gate: Measuring the impact on those left behind

Thirty-nine days have passed since a promising Flying
Dutchmen season was derailed by the arrests of four knuckleheads. We all know
how the Dutchmen have fared since then (hint: it rhymes with so and bix), but I
thought it’d be interesting to look at the before and after performances of the
players left behind. Like so many things I write, this one ended up going a lot
longer than I anticipated, so without further ado, here you go. (Note: Since he
didn’t debut until Dec. 22, Daquan Brown is not a part of this exercise)

ANALYSIS: Allen has been the biggest post-arrests bright
spot for the Dutchmen. He got better as December (and January) went on and
scored 30 points on 11-20 shooting from the field and 8-of-10 shooting from the
free throw line over the last three games. He was just 10-of-20 from the field
and 6-of-15 from the free throw line in the Dutchmen’s first 10 games. Allen’s
also added six steals while committing just four turnovers in the last six
games. He probably won’t ever be a superstar, but he’s looking like a very
solid glue guy for the next three-and-a-half years as he displays the benefits
of the redshirt year that the Dutchmen were never able to give raw big men
Stephen Nwaukoni, Moussa Kone and Darren Payen.

TARAN BUIE

Before knucklehead gate: 14.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 25.4 mpg, 1
start

After knucklehead gate: 15.7 ppg. 4.0 rpg, 34 mpg, 6 starts

ANALYSIS: The pre-arrests depth at guard allowed Mo Cassara
to ease Buie into the mix after he went almost 23 months between games. Do you
remember when Buie was asked if he liked coming off the bench? That was
awesome. Losing three guards forced Buie into the starting lineup much earlier
than anticipated, and while he’s easily the Dutchmen’s best player, he appears
to have grown frustrated over the last three games, ever since his 29-point
masterpiece against Long Island went for naught. Buie has 39 points on 13-of-39
shooting in that span, down considerably from the 40 percent clip (38-of-94) he
shot in his first eight games. He’s also recorded more assists than turnovers
just once in his seven starts. With nobody behind Buie, though, there’s not
much Cassara can do except hope Buie shakes off the rust, gets hot and regains
some confidence.

ANALYSIS: Mejia has probably been the Dutchmen’s steadiest
player over the last month. Still, he, more than the rest of us, should look
back at the weekend sweep in the Not CBI tournament and wonder what could have
been. A scattershot shooter at best who is prone to extended slumps, especially
when he’s trying to force the action, Mejia benefited from the increased
attention on players we shall not mention during the weekend before Thanksgiving
and won the MVP of the subregional by scoring 47 points while shooting 17-of-30
from the field (including 2-of-6 from 3-point land) and 11-of-11 from the line.
In the other 10 games this season, Mejia is shooting 28 percent (24-of-86) from
the field, including 2-of-18 from 3-point land, and 61 percent (34-of-56) from
the line. On the bright side, Mejia has not let his poor shooting affect his
role as facilitator: His assists are way up over the last six games, as noted
above, and he has a 17/8 assist-to-turnover ratio over the last three games.
He’s also coming off a two-game stretch games against Tulane and Florida
Atlantic in which he shot 10-of-25 from the field while pulling down 15
rebounds, so perhaps he’s warming up a bit. But the Dutchmen will be more
successful if Mejia is shooting less.

ANALYSIS: Imes’ numbers are falling for the second straight
season: After averaging 7.6 ppg and 6.8 rpg as a sophomore, he averaged 7.0 ppg
and 5.4 rpg last year and is averaging 5.8 ppg and 4.6 rpg this year. It’s easy
to say the Dutchmen had to rely on Imes for more outside shooting after losing
three long-range threats, but the truth is Imes was settling on the perimeter
even when the roster was full: Of his 77 field goal attempts this year, 39 have
come from beyond the arc. He can really help the Dutchmen there by hitting two
or three 3-pointers a game, but he’s drained a pair of treys just twice this
year. He’s probably a guy who would have benefited from plenty of open shots
had the knuckleheads remained on the team. Sigh.

STEPHEN NWAUKONI

Before knucklehead gate: 5.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 16.3 mpg., 1
start (2 DNP)

After knucklehead gate: 7.0 ppg. 7.8 rpg, 22.8 mpg, 1 start

ANALYSIS: Nwaukoni has definitely benefited, in terms of
playing time, since the arrests, and he’s the type of consistent rebounder the
Dutchmen have lacked since Kenny Adeleke (speaking of guys we should only refer
to by code names). Nwaukoni has at least seven rebounds in seven of the last
eight games in which he’s played and has a real shot at becoming the first
Dutchmen since Adeleke to average eight rebounds a game over a full season. But
given his inconsistencies on offense, the Dutchmen would have better off with
him as a role player—a designated rebounder, if you will. As it is, Cassara
will have to hope there’s a lot more two-game stretches like the one Nwaukoni
enjoyed against Long Island and Brooklyn (12 points apiece on a combined
10-of-16 shooting) than the one he just had against Tulane and Florida Atlantic
(eight points combined on 3-of-12 shooting).

ANALYSIS: Mejia might be the guy wondering what might have
been if the knuckleheads didn’t decide to steal stuff, but Kone is the player
who has been most affected by their absences, especially that of the guy who
used to wear no. 1. Kone opened the season as the no. 2 in a very
impressive—and very young—1-2 punch, but with Daquan Brown rounding into form,
Kone is in danger of falling to the back of the Dutchmen’s big man rotation.
Kone played as few as 20 minutes just once in the first seven games—and did
that in an easy win over Division II District of Columbia—but has played as
many as 20 minutes just once since then, and he barely reached that figure
against Wright State. Kone scored in double digits in three of the first five
games, but hasn’t scored more than seven points in a game since. He had at
least five rebounds in six of the first eight games but hasn’t had more than
four rebounds in any of the last five games. He has hit 10 of his last 15 field
goal attempts over the last four games and scored seven points against Florida
Atlantic, which provides hope he can be a finisher down low and a solid piece
to the puzzle.

MATT GROGAN

Before knucklehead gate: 3 minutes played all season, no
stats

After knucklehead gate: 4.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 18 mpg, 0 starts

ANALYSIS: After playing more extensively last season than
any walk-on in the DD Era, it looked as if we wouldn’t see much of Grogan until
Senior Day. Then the knuckleheads got busted and suddenly “Matty Ice” became a
valuable member of the rotation. He scored a career-high seven points against
SMU, then matched that figure three nights later against Wagner and again
against Tulane. Grogan has as many 3-pointers this year (six) as he did last
year in seven fewer attempts, which is an encouraging sign going forward. He’s
the best pure long-range shooter on the team and there are going to be nights
this year where he drains three or four 3-pointers and we lose our freaking minds.
But he’ll need to have a lot of those nights to give the Dutchmen a shot in the
CAA.

DARREN PAYEN

Before knucklehead gate: DNP

After knucklehead gate: 2.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg, 12 mpg, 0
starts

ANALYSIS: The first long-term tremors from the arrests were
felt against SMU Dec. 1, when Payen began the process of burning his redshirt
because the Dutchmen needed warm bodies. Cassara believed Payen would be one of
the CAA’s best freshmen next year, but we’ll just have to hope we aren’t
wondering what he could have been with a redshirt. Payen has looked predictably
raw and rusty thus far, especially over the last three games, a stretch in
which he’s scored two points, attempted two field goals and pulled down three
rebounds in 22 minutes—as many minutes as he played against SMU. Payen has
shown his potential by collecting two blocks in three different games, and he
should be someone who benefits from playing two or three games a week. The
Dutchmen will need him to develop in hopes of establishing a strong inside
game.

ADAM SAVION

Before knucklehead gate: DNP

After knucklehead gate: 3.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 5.3 mpg, 0 starts

ANALYSIS: Savion appeared to be the David Vallins of a new
generation but has played double-digit minutes in two of his four appearances.
He has plenty of fearlessness—gotta love a walk-on who just drives the lane as
instinctively as Savion does—and can play point in a pinch, but let’s face it,
no team in America is built to survive getting minutes at the point in December
from a guy who wasn’t on the team in November.