North of Mosul, Kurdish pesh merga forces continue to push through a string of villages near Bashiqa. Iraqi forces, supported by American advisers, pushed the southern front lines to around 10 miles from Mosul as they advanced through the village of Bartella.

Conflicts continue to emerge between Iraq and Turkey, which has insisted on joining the fight for Mosul. Turkey has been maintaining troops in a base northeast of the city, without Iraq’s permission, and claims to have been contributing to the campaign by training Kurdish pesh merga forces and Sunni Arab fighters in Iraq, and firing artillery against militants. Iraq’s prime minister has denied Turkey’s claims.

Published Oct. 20, 2016

Inside the City

Some neighborhoods on the eastern bank of the river have been free of ISIS activity.

Nineveh Ruins

1

ISIS presence has been reported on the eastern edge of the city.

2

Mosul

ISIS manufactures explosives in the Wadi Ekab industrial district.

Areas where ISIS is holding Yazidi women captive.

Government

center

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Some neighborhoods on the eastern bank of the river have been free of ISIS activity.

Nineveh Ruins

1

ISIS presence has been reported on the eastern edge of the city.

2

Mosul

ISIS manufactures explosives in the Wadi Ekab industrial district.

Areas where ISIS is holding Yazidi women captive.

Government

center

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Some neighborhoods on the eastern bank of the river have been free of ISIS activity.

Nineveh Ruins

1

ISIS presence has been reported on the eastern edge of the city.

2

Mosul

ISIS manufactures explosives in the Wadi Ekab industrial district.

Areas where ISIS is holding Yazidi women captive.

Government

center

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Areas where ISIS is holding Yazidi women captive.

1

Mosul

2

ISIS manufactures explosives in the Wadi Ekab industrial district.

Govt.

center

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Areas where ISIS is holding Yazidi women captive.

1

Mosul

2

ISIS manufactures explosives in the Wadi Ekab industrial district.

Govt.

center

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Areas where ISIS is holding Yazidi women captive.

Mosul

ISIS manufactures explosives in the Wadi Ekab industrial district.

Govt.

center

1

Tigris

River

2 miles

Source: Mosul Eye

Islamic State fighters in Mosul are preparing for a showdown with Iraqi forces. According to the Pentagon, the militants have created smoke screens by setting fire to tires and oil to conceal their movements from coalition aircraft.

Residents reported that ISIS was killing suspected spies and had erected sand berms and concrete walls to close off roads.

In one of the first phases of an operation that could last weeks or months, about 4,000 Kurdish pesh merga troops moved on Monday to retake 10 villages east of the city.

The battle is expected to unfold in stages. The troops that have been massing at bases around Mosul plan to first surround the city and then gradually tighten the circle, cutting off supply routes and isolating the area.

On the first day of the offensive, Iraqi government and Kurdish forces advanced from the south and east, leaving a path for Islamic State fighters to flee west to Syria.

Leaving a corridor open for the militants could help reduce civilian casualties, said Columb Strack, an analyst for IHS Conflict Monitor, a group that has been tracking the events in Iraq and Syria.

“If there is a way of getting them to withdraw and push them to the desert,” Mr. Strack said, “why fight them in a built-up area like Mosul?”

An ultimate assault into Mosul will probably be carried out by Iraqi commandos who have been trained by United States Special Forces. Iraq’s federal police and some army units could also join the push.

Nineveh

Ruins

1

Mosul Amusement

Park

2

Mosul

The center of government is on the western side of the river.

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Nineveh

Ruins

1

Mosul Amusement

Park

2

Mosul

The center of government is on the western side of the river.

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Nineveh

Ruins

1

Mosul Amusement

Park

2

Mosul

The center of government is on the western side of the river.

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Nineveh

Ruins

1

Mosul Amusement

Park

2

Mosul

The center of government is on the western side of the river.

Mosul

airport

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Mosul

1

2

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Mosul

1

2

1

80

Tigris

River

2 miles

Mosul

1

80

Tigris

River

Mosul is split by the Tigris River. Some officials expect the militants to pull back from the eastern side of the city and focus on defending the west bank, where the government center is. The west bank also has many narrow streets, which makes it difficult for tanks and artillery to operate.

The fighting is likely to be fierce. Islamic State militants have created a network of tunnels under Mosul and have planted improvised explosives so densely that they resemble minefields. The insurgents have also dug trenches, filled them with oil and set them ablaze.

The Islamic State’s Shrinking Footprint

Islamic State

Iraqi government

Kurdish

Mosul

Erbil

SYRIA

Kirkuk

Deir al-Zour

IRAQ

Tigris

Euphrates

Baghdad

Area of control, Jan. 2015

Mosul

Erbil

SYRIA

Kirkuk

Deir al-Zour

IRAQ

Tigris

Euphrates

Baghdad

Oct. 2016

The Islamic State easily captured Mosul in June 2014, when soldiers of the Iraqi Army, built up with tens of billions of dollars of support from the United States, dropped their weapons, shed their uniforms and ran.

The victory gave the militant group significant momentum as it made a series of lightning advances across Iraq, capturing large portions of the country.

The group has since lost much of its territory, the result of both a ground war to take back key cities and an air campaign to take out important leaders and major sources of revenue. Mosul is perhaps the group’s last major stronghold in Iraq.

A Looming Humanitarian Crisis

As many as 1.2 million people could be displaced by the fighting in Mosul, according to the United Nations. About 213,000 people from Mosul, Falluja and Qaiyara now live in refugee camps in northern Iraq.

Another 200,000 people are expected to flee Mosul in the initial stages of the offensive. The United Nations has expanded refugee camps and built several new ones in northern Iraq to handle the influx.

Refugee sites

Sites under construction

Amalla site

Zelekan site

Mosul

ISIS-controlled

area

Erbil

Tigris

Debaga sites

IRAQ

Kirkuk

20,000

5,000

Number of

displaced individuals

Amalla site

Zelekan site

Mosul

ISIS-controlled

area

Erbil

Tigris

Debaga sites

IRAQ

Kirkuk

20,000

5,000

Number of

displaced individuals

IRAQ

Mosul

ISIS-controlled

area

Erbil

Tigris

Debaga sites

20,000

Kirkuk

5,000

Number of

displaced individuals

Source: CCCM Cluster

In Debaga, southeast of Mosul, two additional camps were completed in July and August for those fleeing from villages east of the Tigris. The population at the Debaga site has already grown tenfold since its opening last year.