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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota -5.5 - Tampa Bay is 2-4 and in their 4 losses they haven't lost by more than 7 points. Those losses have come against the arms of Drew Brees, Tony Romo, RG3, and Eli Manning...not too shabby of opponents. I like Tampa Bay to turn the tables tonight on the Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed over 230 passing yards in three out of six games this season and in those three games they have only won by 7 points in each game. Now combine that with the fact that the Bucs can stop the run and what you have here is a close, low scoring game. In both games that the Vikings have not reached 100 yards rushing, they have lost. I do not expect the Vikings to reach the century mark tonight and I think Tampa Bay has enough fire power to get the upset win in Minnesota. Tied for 6th in interceptions, 3rd against the run, and in the top third of the NFL for points allowed, I like the Bucs to get a road win tonight.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

NO’s record is awful but they’re
better than this. Coming off a bye, the team should have their heads on
straight and put some of the drama behind them. They’re certainly not a playoff
team but neither is Tampa Bay. Tampa has found something to behold in its
running game but the Josh Freeman era is likely coming to its unceremonious
end. Look for a little old school Saints football to put on a show in Tampa.

NO 35 TB 17

Tennessee +3 @ Buffalo

TENN 20 BUFF 16

Cleveland @ Indianapolis -1

CLE 18 IND 24

Green Bay +5.5 @ St. Louis

GB 35 STL 24

Arizona +6.5 @ Minnesota

ARI 17 MINN 14

Washington +6 @ NY Giants

WASH 24 NYG 28

Dallas @ Carolina +3

For whatever reason, this particular
Cowboys incarnation has sickened me more than any other. I stopped paying
attention to football on purpose, didn’t want the chance of a Dallas ESPN
segment ruining my day. I witnessed the latest frustration in person. The
stadium was packed with the Cowboys faithful. My buddy, a season ticketholder
for over 10 years, commented he’d never seen more opposing team jersey’s at a
Ravens home game. There was a sense of faith, of knowing, a belief that this
was the game where we would start to right the ship. My Ravens fan buddy and
his father each leaned over at different moments to sincerely say…We
(Baltimore) are going to lose….you guys look good. A Romo pick here, a blown
specials teams play there, Jason Garrett’s coaching led us to a heartbreaking
loss. What makes this all the more insufferable is Jerry Jones insisting the
Cowboys are in Super Bowl contention. The grace of those early Super Bowls is
long gone. We no longer expect anything but hype followed by disappointment. In
the good years, we display flashes of what could be then disappoint in the most
beautifully heartbreaking manner imaginable. I don’t mind optimism, I don’t
mind marketing but I can’t take this particular brand of ignorance. Who knows
what Dallas team shows up this weekend, but even in their finest moment of 2012
(the opening night win) this team couldn’t get out of its own way.

DAL 21 CAR 24

Baltimore @ Houston -7

Baltimore let Felix Jones run all
over them, wait until they get a taste of Arian Foster.

BAL 17 HOU 33

Jacksonville @ Oakland -6.5

JAX 14 OAK 20

New York Jets @ New England -10.5

It might be time to go whole hog on
triple option. Denver rode it to the playoffs and the Jets certainly aren’t
riding Sanchez anywhere.

There’s a lot of reason to pick
Seattle to get an upset. The crowd, cross country trip, their powerful defense.
However, I simply can’t imagine a scenario where the Seahawks score enough
points to keep pace. It appears Pete Carroll jumped the gun by placing Russell
Wilson in the starting spot so soon. He looks overwhelmed at times. Matt Flynn
was brought in to cure the inconsistencies of Tavaris Jackson and they should
have stayed the course. New England’s defensive front has been getting after
opposing QB’s and Wilson will have to play beyond his years to upset the
Patriots.

New England 30 – Seattle 17

Kansas City +4.5 @ Tampa Bay

I’m feeling a little Brady Quinn
rejuvenation for a Kansas City team that nearly beat the Ravens by playing tough
defense. Tampa’s offense, despite the additions, struggles to move the ball and
rarely takes deep shots downfield. Brady Quinn’s bounced from place to place
without much of a chance to start. KC is at the end of their rope with the
Cassel experiment. If he shows something, just about anything, the starting job
could become his for the rest of the year, which is a lot like being promoted
to manager at Ruby Tuesday’s, but it’s something right?

KC 17 TB 14

Oakland @ Atlanta -9.5

OAK 17 ATL 34

Dallas @ Baltimore -3.5

Jason Garrett seems like a model
citizen and someone who will focus on getting the “right kind of guys” on his
team, guys with high moral character and a dedication to the game (aside from
Dez). He should be commended for this. However, he’s gotten worse each year as
the head of this offense. The line is a train wreck but there’s enough skill
and talent out there to not be the worst scoring team in the NFL. The offense
moves best when the called play breaks down and Romo improvises. Garrett got
away with blaming the defense last season and an early injury to Romo the
season prior. How different the football world may have been if Jerry let
Garrett go to Baltimore a few years ago? Tony was a train wreck against
Chicago, but what do you expect when receivers can’t catch, the line can’t
block and he is forced to make it happen. I’ll be in the Harbor for this one,
let’s hope I make it out alive. Ravens dominate.

DAL 10 BAL 24

Cincinnati -1 @ Cleveland

CIN 17 CLE 14

St. Louis @ Miami -4

STL 16 MIA 21

Indianapolis +3.5 @ New York Jets

INDY 27 NYJ 13

Detroit @ Philadelphia -3

The tale of two teams seemingly
ready to take the next step but cannot manage enough consistency to do so.
DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have failed to turn into the league’s most
feared duo and Vick appears to have regressed to the point Reid may turn to his
rookie backup. The Eagles defense wins the day and keeps Philly atop the NFC
East. I hear Michal Vick owns a dog now. There isn’t a law against such things?
I mean I’m pretty sure Jerry Sandusky couldn’t secure an adoption and eHarmony
would turn down Ike Turner.

DET 20 PHI 24

Buffalo +4.5 @ Arizona

BUFF 28 ARI 27

NY Giants +7 @ San Francisco

San Fran is beating teams down. Of
course, those teams all happen to be from an unusually awful AFC East. The
Giants keep finding talent on their bench and Eli continues to be as solid as
Sears. New York will give SF all they can handle but ultimately come up short
largely from an inability to find any traction in the running game.

NY 21 SF 24

Minnesota @ Washington

“The best laid schemes of mice and
men often go awry.” Shanahan couldn’t help but play Lennie, RG3 his rabbits. He
had the best of intentions but couldn’t help playing too rough. RG3’s ability
to run is astounding but his ability as a passer is equally impressive and more
valuable in the NFL. The threat of the run is enough to throw opposing defenses
off, sacrificing your young QB’s body in the name of a middling season insults
the investment made into the young man.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Steelers are coming off a very unimpressive win against the Eagles on Sunday, so expect Mike Tomlin to have his boys fired up for this game on short rest. The Titans are coming off another bad loss and another poor performance from RB Chris Johnson.

Both teams need to improve from last week which is why I expect this to be a high scoring game. The Titans do have weapons on offense, so they can put up some points if they are clicking at all. The Steelers have a rejuvenated running game with the return of Rashard Mendenhall last week (81yards). Heath Miller has been more involved in the passing game, and add the down field threats of Brown and Wallace and this Steelers offense will have no problem against one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL.

Big Ben is a must start in fantasy football this week, and I believe Mendenhall should get a rushing touchdown as well. Points will be scored, and the Steelers defense will make a big play in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

The Philadelphia Eagles are underachievers that are
overachieving based on their record.-9
in turnover ratio, the Eagles, Michael Vick specifically, do not protect the
football.Granted they came back and
went up 14-13 with just under 7 minutes to play, too many fumbles and missed
opportunities cost this team.They
should have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers who looked horrible on offense and
not very good on defense.I am not
impressed by either team so far through the first 5 weeks of the NFL season.

The Green Bay Packers are beatable.Losing to the Colts in Indy shows the
vulnerability of the Packers and the Packers defense more specifically.Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne lit up the
Packers defense and the Colts really won the battle in the trenches on both
sides of the ball.The Packers are a
good football team, and very well coached, but clearly they are beatable and it
does not help them that Jennings is injured, Benson could be done for the year
(foot), and Jermichael Finley is underperforming.

I am not a believer in the Vikings as of yet.While I am impressed by the defense and how
they are playing, they are not a complete team on offense outside of their home
turf.Ponder still has plenty to prove
to me.That being said, kudos to Leslie
Frazier on his job thus far, and I wish him best of look in the upcoming games.

The Bears look very good, but they have not beaten anyone
that has been mentioned in playoff talks.Defense looks fierce and tenacious, offense looks better each week, a
lot falls on the shoulders of Cutler and how he is able to perform in pivotal
matchups.

I am still not sold on the Giants.Eli is great and has proven to be clutch in
the fourth quarter, but I do not trust the Giants secondary.Brandon Weeden made it look very easy to
throw on the Giants DBs and the Browns gave the GMen a hell of a scare in the
first half.The Giants are loaded with
talent on the defensive line, but it is the secondary that will need to step up
if they are to make it to the post season again this year.

For the record I am still saying 8-8 wins the AFC West and I
will lean towards the Chargers as the team that takes the division.The Raiders don’t look like the same team on
both sides of the ball from last season.The play of the secondary from Oakland will continue to cause major
problems for them.Oakland is not a team
designed to win games by scoring 30+ points.Kansas City has quarterback issues, let alone defensive issues.All they do is run the ball, you cannot win
that way. Denver looks better each week,
but I think the defense will slow down in the second half of the season and
give Peyton a tough time to win games.This is why i think the Chargers will take the division.They have a potent offense led by Philip
Rivers, and the Chargers defense is good, not great, but they typically get the
job done.A few bad calls by the refs in
the Saints game, and the Chargers still had an opportunity to force overtime.

The Texans are the best team in football, even without
Cushing (ACL Tear).They run the ball
extremely well, they pass the ball with ease, and they are so efficient in the red
zone it is scary. Defensively Wade Phillips is doing a phenomenal job preparing
for each team each week.Led by JJ Watt
the D-Line has been fantastic, the line backing play has picked up each week,
and the secondary is second to none in the NFL.Expect big things from the Texans.

The Patriots no huddle offense against Denver was ridiculous.I have never seen a team run the no huddle
faster than what Brady was doing against Denver’s defense.Add in the fact that the Patriots have been
running the ball very effectively with Steph Ridley, yikes this team is
dangerous.Do they have a defense ready
for the playoffs?

The Ravens should take down the AFC North at this
point.The Browns are not good, the
Bengals look vulnerable and have only beaten young and inexperienced quarterbacks,
and the Steelers defense is nothing near what we are accustomed to seeing on
Sundays.Ravens have a very good
quarterback who is overachieving, a top running back in the league, a
possession receiver (Boldin) to go along with a downfield threat (Smith), and
their defense is extremely talented.Ravens are legit in the AFC.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Baltimore’s defense isn’t as good as its reputation would have you believe. The offense is probably better than those outside of the City that Reads realize. Kansas City’s hapless defense combined with Matt Cassel’s death roll as a starting NFL QB will make for a long miserable day in Kansas City.

BAL 35 KC 17

Cleveland +8.5 @ New York Giants

CLE 16 NYG 24

Philadelphia +3.5 @ Pittsburgh

Philly give Big Ben headaches and the offense finally puts something together for an entire game.

PHI 30 PITT 28

LOCK

Atlanta -3 @ Washington

The specter of Roddy White, Julio Jones and Harry Douglas should strike fear in the hearts of the Redskins. Washington’s beleaguered secondary has a tendency to disappear and Matt Ryan’s absolutely on fire. Washington will surely find the end zone but will fail to keep pace with the red hot Falcons.

ATL 33 WASH 24

Chicago @ Jacksonville +4.5

CHI 20 JAX 21

Tennessee @ Minnesota -6

TENN 14 MINN 21

Denver @ New England -6

Brady v. Manning. Sadly, Manning’s right arm died 3 years ago. Those ducks can’t continue to find their targets. Watching Manning is like seeing the old 90210 stars in those Old Navy commercials.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Looking at this game and how these two teams have performed
through the first four games of the season, the line is clearly telling the
public to take Washington at home.The
Falcons are far and away the better team through the first four games.But, after struggling to put away Cam Newton
and the depleted Panthers secondary, the Falcons are in for a prime let down.Looking at the numbers the Redskins offense
is 4th in points per game, 3rd in total yards per game,
and 2nd in rushing yards per game.While the Falcons should have no issue passing the ball around on the
Redskins 29th ranked pass defense, it is the Falcons run defense
(ranked 31st) that concerns me the most in this ball game.The Skins will be able to move the ball up
and down the field utilizing their forceful ground and pound attack, and then
mixing in the play action passes with RG3.RG3 needs to protect the football, make the check downs when necessary,
and live to play another down and I believe the Skins get the home upset
here.Julio Jones has an injured hand,
so we will see how that shakes out.But
if the Redskins watch the tape from the Panthers/Falcons game, I think both the
offense and defense should feel pretty good about where they are catching the
Falcons during the season.This has
letdown written all over it for the Falcons.

Pick – Redskins 34 – Falcons 28

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh -3.5 -170

I am an Eagles homer by definition, but I just think this is
a tough spot for the Eagles to pick up a win.I really like Pittsburgh in this game. Getting their key players back
will be pivotal in this matchup, as the defense is entirely different with Harrison
and Polamalu back in the starting eleven.Two weeks off to prepare gives them even more of an edge as well.The Steelers have the better quarterback in
this game as Big Ben always shines in these types of matchups.The Eagles have been turnover happy all
season, they stayed clean last week against the Giants, but can any true Eagles
fan count on Reid to stay committed to the run this week?Pittsburgh gets the Eagles in this one.

Pick - Pittsburgh 24 – Philadelphia 17

Green Bay @ Indianapolis +7 -300

I understand the Colts are coming off a bye week and they
will rally for their head Coach battling Cancer, but this is just a tough
matchup for them.The Packers need a
strong performance for themselves and coming off a loss to Seattle and barely
escaping at home against the Saints, this is a great opportunity for Rodgers
and his crew to get things straightened out.Luck and Wayne has solid days, but Rodgers has too much fire power and
too much consistency to lose this game.

Pick - Green Bay 30 – Indianapolis 20

Cleveland @ New York Giants -8.5 -360

I do not see the Browns stealing this one from the
Giants.Coming off an Eagles loss I expect
Tommy Coughlin to have his team prepared to put on a nice performance against
an inferior opponent.Stop Trent
Richardson and you win this game.

Pick – Giants 20 – Browns 12

Tennessee @ Minnesota -6 -250

I was tempted to go with the Titans in this game as it is
hard for me to believe the Vikings will win three straight games, but after
looking at a few game tapes and going through their defensive stats, the Titans
should lose this game.They are bad against
the run, even worse against the pass, they have no pass rush, and they don’t
force many turnovers.While I have no
faith in Christian Ponder as a quarterback, I believe Leslie Frasier will have
a well prepared game plan focused solely on Adrian Peterson and a few bootlegs
for Ponder.The Vikings defense should
feel pretty confident going into this game.

Pick – Minnesota 20 – Tennessee 17

Miami @ Cincinnati -3 -165

The Dolphins are the sexy pick here.They are 5th in the league in
rushing yards per game, Brian Hartline had a heck of a week last week, they are
#1 in the nfl against the run, but they are #29 against the pass and boy have
the Bengals been solid throwing the football downfield this season.Dalton and Green have hooked up quite a few
times to stretch the field and put points on the board.After a tough loss to Arizona last week, the
Dolphins have to take another flight this week and go to Cincy.This all takes a toll on the Phins and the
Bengals take care of the business here.

Pick – Bengals 24 – Dolphins 13

****LOCK*****

Baltimore @ Kansas City +6.5 -275

Stop Jamaal Charles and you win by double digits.Do you agree?Thought so.

Pick – Ravens 27 – Chiefs 13

Seattle @ Carolina -3 -160

Carolina does not look poised to win this game.Their secondary is depleted, they suffered a
heart breaking loss last week in Atlanta, and this week they are pitted against
one of the best defenses in the league.Seattle is a totally different team away from home, but I think Russ
Wilson will take some shots down the field and surprise people with his accuracy
on deep balls during an actual live NFL game.I will take the points in this one.

Pick – Seattle 17 – Carolina 16

Chicago @ Jacksonville +5.5 -240

Stop MJD and you win this game.The Bears create enough turnovers, lead the
league in Interceptions, and they are 4th in sacks.The Jaguars on the other hand are last in the
league in sacks, towards the worst in run defense, and they are putrid on offense.This is not a recipe for success for the
Jaguars.Cutler and his boys will get it
done early.Bears win big in
Jacksonville.

Pick - Bears 26 – Jaguars 10

Denver @ New England -6.5 -275

What an awesome matchup here; Manning vs. Brady for what very
well could be the last regular season showdown between the two, we just don’t
know.That being said, the Patriots have
the clear edge in this game; the fact that they can utilize the running game
with Ridley and Woodhead gives them such good balance and it opens up so much
in the passing game for Brady.While I
do believe the Broncos offense is gelling, I just feel so much more comfortable
taking the Patriots rather than the Broncos.The Broncos defense is in store for a tough day and it’ll come down to
playing in a shootout and can Peyton keep up.

Pick - Patriots 35 – Broncos 24

Buffalo @ San Francisco -10

The 49ers are starving for a home blow out and here it
is.The Bills rough second half last
week continues to plague them in week 5.Take Smith and the 49ers to win a solid home win against a very good
Buffalo team.

Pick – San Francisco 27 – Buffalo 10

San Diego @ New Orleans -4 -190

I like the Chargers to surprise the public in this
matchup.Rivers won’t have any issues
with the Saints defense.While I expect
them to be fired up with suspended Head Coach Sean Payton in the stands, I feel
confident in saying that the better defense will win this game and threat is
clearly Chargers in my book.Drew Brees
will be without Lance Moore in this game, and the Saints have yet to establish
a running attack in any game this season.While this is a big game for the Saints, and the entire public is all
over them, I can see Philip Rivers moving his offense up and down the field on
this Saints defense and scoring some quick points.While everyone and their mother claims this
to be an easy win for the Saints, I am on the other side. This is not the same
Saints team we are accustomed to seeing.

Pick – Chargers 27 – Saints 24

****LOCK*****

Houston @ New York Jets +9

No Revis, no Holmes, maybe some Tebow, and there will be
plenty of Arian Foster.The Jets run
defense has been bad this year, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL, and the
Texans will exploit that.The Texans
defense will have no issues with the Jets’ offense and this should be a pretty
smooth win on the road.Take the road
team here and lay the points, Jets won’t reach double digits.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Cardinals get Adrian Wilson back on this short week where the Cardinals head into St. Louis to take on the Rams coming off a nice home win against Seattle last week.

The Cardinals defense will out perform the Rams offense making this game out to be a low scoring affair. That being said, Kevin Kolb has been good in the clutch for Arizona and I think he does it again tonight.

THE BETTER DEFENSE WINS TONIGHT, and I feel rather confident in the Cardinals offense to keep the field position game in their favor.