Start Romney with 206 and if he wins NH (4), VA (13), Fl (29)and OH (18), it gives him the 270 needed without having to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin.
If he loses Ohio, he needs to win Pennsylvania which is a possibility based on tightening polls but I see them as twins, whoever wins one will likely win the other (OH), and the election.

I expect Barack Hussein Obama to win because it's "the right thing to do" but if I am wrong and Romney is declared the winner, GET READY FOR TROUBLE IN THE STREETS, THEY (the left wing) ARE SORE LOSERS AND WON'T ACCEPT IT, EVEN A LANDSLIDE.

Seems there are several ways to look at this:
Obama wins:
- The polls are accurate
- Obama's turnout machine will do better than Romney's at turning out supporters
- Women will vote for Obama in larger numbers than expected because of Republican sexism
- Hispanics will become a larger factor than before, and they overwhelmingly support Obama

Romney wins:
- Polls are inaccurate, oversampling Democrats or biased
- Conservatives are more likely to lie to pollsters or not answer phones
- Republicans will do enough to suppress and invalidate votes in Democratic leaning communities to gain an edge
- Republicans are more psyched than Democrats to vote, and generally tend to be more reliable voters (typically older)

The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

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Yet in the Gallup polls conducted since October 1, the two parties have pulled even, with Republicans actually ahead by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 36 percent to 35 percent. After being pushed to choose a party, likely voters give the Republicans a further boost, resulting in an overall three-point advantage of 49 percent to 46 percent.

Retired NSA analyst Michael Duniho has worked for nearly seven years trying to understand voting anomalies in his home state of Arizona and Pima County. This publication has written extensively about apparent vote machine manipulation in a 2006 RTA Bond issue election that is still being fought in the courts. Said Duniho, "It is really easy to cheat using computers to count votes, because you can't see what is going on in the machine."

When Duniho applied a mathematical model to actual voting results in the largest voting precincts, he saw that only the large precincts suddenly trended towards Mitt Romney in the Arizona primary â€“ and indeed all Republicans in every election since 2008 â€“ by a factor of 8%-10%. The Republican candidate in every race saw an 8-10%. gain in his totals whilst the Democrat lost 8-10%. This is a swing of up to 20 point, enough to win an election unless a candidate was losing very badly.

Since sifting through and decoding massive amounts of data was his work for decades on behalf of the National Security Agency, he wanted to understand why this was ONLY happening in large precincts

Rasmussen has released their Oct party affiliation survey based on results from 15K likely voters, pretty shocking this was a 7.6% advantage for O in 2008. The latest is 5.8% R. shocking a record for this measure.

Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:

That story (from a blog, apparently) doesn't even make sense. So the idea is that GOP was stealing votes in a primary? Who were they stealing them from? Here's a tip: primaries are for candidates from one party or the other. The two parties face each other something called the "General Election".