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Dr. Rasmus updates analysis of key economic developments of the past week: the latest events around the US-China trade negotiations and trade war, the estimated effects of the US government shutdown after four weeks with no end in sight, the questionable reliability of government wage statistics in Japan and the US; warnings rising about the stability of Europe banks and …

Dr. Rasmus continues discussion of last week’s topic of the causal relationships between debt and financial bubbles, financial asset crashes, and recessions. How defaults (i.e. failure to pay principal and interest on debt as prices and cash flow collapse) play an integrative role in the debt-deflation dynamic as well. Rasmus explains how, when financial markets start contracting, defaults begin to …

Dr. Rasmus explains the role of debt in generating financial asset price bubbles in 21st century capitalism, and globally since 2008-09 last crisis. How debt may play a positive role in generating real investment or how credit and debt may divert into financial asset markets instead, creating bubbles and eventual financial asset markets deflation. The latter has been increasingly the case …

Europe’s economy is stagnating again. Dr. Rasmus reviews the 3 key elements of its growth strategy: (1) free money from its central bank, (2) internal devaluations (aka labor market ‘reforms’) to drive down wage costs to make EU exports more competitive, and (3) fiscal austerity. Rasmus explains how all three are now breaking down as Europe’s GDP recently stagnates at …

Dr. Rasmus explains the importance of the Yield Curve (currently flattening or inverting) and its role as a predictor of recession in 2019. What causes short term rates to rise while long term rates slow or fall. The Fed’s role in short term rate changes and the global-US economy slowing role in long term rates converging with short term. Why …

Dr. Rasmus speculates on possible outcomes of the Trump-Xi meeting at G20 in Buenos Aires this coming weekend and provides a background history of US-China ‘trade war’ since May 2018; the latest moves of factions within US trade negotiations delegation; and Trump’s failure to get China to the negotiating table. Also, China’s past concession signals and US responses. And the …

The NY Times just published the first of a series of articles on China’s economic rise, timed for Trump’s G20 meeting with China president, Xi, next week. Rasmus comments on the Times article and its focus on an ‘Epochal Contest’ emerging between US and China. While the Times article analysis is mostly anecdotal, Rasmus provides a deeper, historical explanation behind …

Dr. Rasmus evaluates the results of the 2018 midterm elections last Tuesday and the Democratic Party’s ‘Suburbia Strategy’ which produced less than historic average gains in the House of Representatives and major strategic losses in the Senate. The consequences of the now 54 Republican majority in the Senate are discussed—including Trump’s attacks on Mueller and Dems backing off impeachment. Also …