I always respect your analysis. Mao is my favorite current skater no matter what, but even I can tell that her current jump arsenal may not be enough to keep her competitive. Your thought about reconstructing her actual jump plan strategically sounds very useful, because it deals with her capacities as they exist right now. I have two questions based on your explanation:
1) If she's slowing down before her jumps, is this something that can be dealt with?
2) If she has been training in this new way for about three years, is there a way for her muscle memory be able to revert to "what comes naturally"?

1) Maybe. I think the reasons for the slowing down are because of her new technique and because of training new transitions into the 3Flip. She keeps trying to do different connecting moves into the 3Flip every season, in addition to focusing on a technique that doesn't come naturally to her. If she keeps trying to do new difficult entrances, all while focusing on this different takeoff technique, then pushing for more speed might just result in her falling more.

2) I would suspect yes, but I don't know for sure. I do know that her new Flip technique (trying to take off directly from the inside edge instead of pulling from an outside edge to an inside edge) hasn't paid off at all, though, and I feel like it's never going to at this point. The way she used to do the Flip may not have been completely textbook, but it wasn't something that got her an edge violation either. She is just so much more tentative when going into this jump than she ever used to be. It's a noticeable distraction for me because I see her face leaving the program while preparing for the jump more than she ever used to. The same goes for her Lutz.

When you break it down to those details, I sometimes think she must be the bravest skater of all. (Except for female pairs skaters, of course, whose moves are sometimes literally death-defying.) She's gambling her entire future on this new training method. Thank goodness this is not something my other favorite skaters ever thought they had to do. I don't think I could have stood the tension.

Mao's 3S, 2A-3T, and 3Lutz were only "non-existant" during the Vancouver year because that's what her coaching team decided upon. She was still perfectly capable of doing those jumps at that time. She completely stopped trying the xxx-3T combinations and the 3Lz in the Long Program after the 2007-2008 season, which was when she stopped getting coached by Arutunian. Mao's jumping was at her best when she was with him. He fixed the poor toeloop technique she had earlier in her career and her Triple Axels were better than ever when she started training with him.

I agree that her jumping was the best when Mao was with Rafael. As for the first part, why do you think Mao's coaching team removed important jumps from her programs if she was capable of landing them? She had a solo 3T, that he could have replaced with 2A-3T and a solo 2A could be replaced with 3S. All of these changes would make her programs more expensive and not as dependent on the success on 3A as they were. What do you think?

I agree that her jumping was the best when Mao was with Rafael. As for the first part, why do you think Mao's coaching team removed important jumps from her programs if she was capable of landing them? She had a solo 3T, that he could have replaced with 2A-3T and a solo 2A could be replaced with 3S. All of these changes would make her programs more expensive and not as dependent on the success on 3A as they were. What do you think?

because she found no need to replace a difficult and big point getter ( the 3A's) with a much easier triple, Mao is not the kind of skater to take the safe road, and by the way Mao landed all 3A's at nationals and 4CC, so there was simply no reason why she should have replaced them to something easier, and i'm happy she went for it cause she also later landed all three 3A's at the Olympics and at worlds, and was the first woman to land several 3A's in the same competition not only at one association but on several that season.

I remember a interview where TAT said that one of the goal with that particular layout was for Asada to be the first woman to land three 3A's in the same competition.

her layout was already packed that season, there was simply was no space for the sal or lutz!

because she found no need to replace a difficult and big point getter ( the 3A's) with a much easier triple, Mao is not the kind of skater to take the safe road, and by the way Mao landed all 3A's at nationals and 4CC, so there was simply no reason why she should have replaced them to something easier, and i'm happy she went for it cause she also later landed all three 3A's at the Olympics and at worlds, and was the first woman to land several 3A's in the same competition not only at one association but on several that season.

I remember a interview where TAT said that one of the goal with that particular layout was for Asada to be the first woman to land three 3A's in the same competition.

her layout was already packed that season, there was simply was no space for the sal or lutz!

mary01, you misunderstood me. I wasn't talking about replacing the 3A's, but a solo 3T and a solo 2A. The program was difficult but very risky and she was still loosing to Kim. So I thought they would have raised the base value of the jumps if they could.

mary01, you misunderstood me. I wasn't talking about replacing the 3A's, but a solo 3T and a solo 2A. The program was difficult but very risky and she was still loosing to Kim. So I thought they would have raised the base value of the jumps if they could.

she already had three combination- jumps 3A-2T 3F-2lo 3F-2lo-lo, no space for a fourth combination!

Having two 3Axels already in the program, I can understand that she would be too tired to attempt a 2Axel-3Toe combination afterward and be able to get credit for it with the super-stingy downgrade system that was in place for the 2010 Olympics. However, she still could have done a 3Toe-2Axel sequence and then put a 3Lutz in the program. The jump layout would have been:

3Axel-2Toe
3Axel
3Flip-2Loop-2Loop
-----
3Lutz
3Flip
3Toe-2Axel
3Loop

This would have scored her a couple extra points (and that's factoring in some -GOE she would have gotten for edge violation on the Lutz), without even really taking extra effort. Ultimately, though, she still wouldn't have beaten what Yu-Na Kim did with the judging system at the time. The Triple Axels were undervalued and Yu-Na was able to put three Double Axels into the program that racked up a ridiculous amount of points, because of the scale of values at the time.

because she found no need to replace a difficult and big point getter ( the 3A's) with a much easier triple, Mao is not the kind of skater to take the safe road, and by the way Mao landed all 3A's at nationals and 4CC, so there was simply no reason why she should have replaced them to something easier, and i'm happy she went for it cause she also later landed all three 3A's at the Olympics and at worlds, and was the first woman to land several 3A's in the same competition not only at one association but on several that season.

I remember a interview where TAT said that one of the goal with that particular layout was for Asada to be the first woman to land three 3A's in the same competition.

her layout was already packed that season, there was simply was no space for the sal or lutz!

She did not land all the 3a at worlds. She actually only did one. < actually means something. It means more than the 3a showing on the protocol.

because she found no need to replace a difficult and big point getter ( the 3A's) with a much easier triple, Mao is not the kind of skater to take the safe road, and by the way Mao landed all 3A's at nationals and 4CC, so there was simply no reason why she should have replaced them to something easier, and i'm happy she went for it cause she also later landed all three 3A's at the Olympics and at worlds, and was the first woman to land several 3A's in the same competition not only at one association but on several that season.

I remember a interview where TAT said that one of the goal with that particular layout was for Asada to be the first woman to land three 3A's in the same competition.

her layout was already packed that season, there was simply was no space for the sal or lutz!

Except she's not doing 3A this season, when this is actually the time she should be landing them provided that she has actually improved her jumps since Vancouver. (This is the 3rd season she's working on her jumps)

Also "something easier" like 3Lz and 3S isn't something she's managing all that well this season either. UR (<) actually means the jump wasn't ratified and therefore it doesn't count.

Except she's not doing 3A this season, when this is actually the time she should be landing them provided that she has actually improved her jumps since Vancouver. (This is the 3rd season she's working on her jumps)

Also "something easier" like 3Lz and 3S isn't something she's managing all that well this season either. UR (<) actually means the jump wasn't ratified and therefore it doesn't count.

well just to refresh your memory she was thinking of retiring just this summer, and as result was three month short of training, injured and in pain, the fact that she was still competing out there was more than anyone could ask for! unlike someone, Mao has enough respect for the sport, to not only show up at competitions when she feels like attending!
and if you read her recent interview you would know that she is planning to put the 3A back

well just to refresh your memory she was thinking of retiring just this summer, and as result was three month short of training, the fact that she was still competing out there was more than anyone could ask for! unlike someone, Mao has enough respect for the sport, to not only show up at competitions when she feels like attending!
and if you read her recent interview you would know that she is planning to put the 3A back

I'm glad she's competing this season especially because it looks like she has been much more stabilized in each performance recently. I mean she has less ups and downs in competitions. and I thought maybe it's because she gave up on her 3A. But reading that interview about putting the 3A back made me a little bit concerned again. I'm not 100% sure whether it is a good decision for her. Personally I like her performance this season very much so I'm worried that putting 3A back might ruin it.