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Following strong performance in 2017, European markets retreated in 2018 – a sell-off that was markedly similar to the 2015-16 downturn, when industrials, miners, banks, commodities and emerging markets plummeted by 30% or more...

Immediately following the EU referendum, financial markets downgraded medium-term growth expectations for the UK. Sterling weakened, long-dated government bond yields fell, and UK equity assets fell relative to international equities. Two-and-a- half years on we can see that this weakness has not unwound.

Today’s investors don’t need to be convinced of the need to integrate Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors to manage risk and optimise performance. Indeed, many also want to assess, understand and measure the wider implications of their investment choices.

Government bonds remain supported by evidence of a slowing in the global economy. This was reflected in the decline in Machine Tool Orders in Japan (See chart of the week), which were lower by 29% on an annual basis at the most recent reading. The US market outperformed last week with yields falling by 4bps for 10-year bonds.

Despite the rapidly approaching deadline for the UK leaving the European Union, much remains up in the air. Trying to gauge the long-term economic impact is difficult, but we are seeking to minimise unwanted risk in our portfolios.

Equities and corporate bonds often do well together. Over the past 20 years the “beta coefficient” between credit to equities has been 0.5 in both the US and Europe; that is to say, for every 1% rise (or fall) in equity prices, credit markets have tended to return (or weaken) 0.5%.

After 10 good years, the markets appear to be finally getting back to pre-crisis norms. Our analysis suggests that this normalisation may result in investment returns becoming much more modest than they have been over the years since the financial crisis, when extraordinarily loose monetary policy has boosted asset prices.

After a bearish end to 2018, financial market participants are preoccupied with the question of whether a global downturn is imminent. Yet they should be asking a different question: have they accounted for the way that technology and other factors are transforming business models?

Asia Pacific ex Japan markets started the year well, holding on to gains that were chalked in the strong rally in 2017. But by mid-year, signs of slowing economic growth surfaced, primarily induced by US-China trade tensions, leading to a sharp market correction, particularly for Chinese equities.

After President Trump signed the ‘Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’ into law on 22 December 2017, we expected corporate earnings growth to be strong in 2018. In fact, it has been far stronger, as the direct effect of the tax cut on corporate earnings was further magnified by the acceleration in economic growth.

Reflecting on 2018, global equity markets have lurched from optimism to pessimism. At the beginning of the year there was a complacent belief in synchronised global growth. But cut to the fourth quarter and many strategists are speculating whether the United States might soon enter a recession and how Chinese economic growth is slowing as they try to get a grip of their own excessive debt levels.

Looking back at 2018, it was a year when European corporate earnings continued to grow, while market volatility was surprisingly high. The volatility was a result of both political noise and the fear of a slowdown in global growth.

We have already had the longest bull market in history and a very long upswing, so this cycle is clearly nearing its end, but we do not believe the end is imminent – rather the cycle is being extended and redefined by a combination of structural factors leading to low interest rates, low inflation and ongoing moderate growth.