Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. President
Yasuyuki Yoshinaga has become a market darling for something he
failed to do: build a factory in China.

The maker of Subaru cars, the only major Japanese auto
brand without a plant in the world’s largest vehicle market, has
jumped 81 percent in Tokyo trading this year for the biggest
gain on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average.

Fuji Heavy’s smaller presence in China has helped shield it
from a consumer backlash triggered by a territorial dispute
between Asia’s two largest economies as its sales in the U.S.
and Japan have surged.

“Selling cars in China is difficult now,” Yoshinaga said
at the unveiling of the new Forester SUV last week in Tokyo.
“Luckily we can cover the loss there by producing more cars for
Japan and the U.S., since we don’t have a plant in China.”

While its Japanese peers idled factories in China last
month as deliveries slumped, Fuji Heavy was able to ship more
cars to the U.S. and Japan, where waiting times have stretched
to six months for its $25,495 BRZ sports car and two months for
the $17,895 Impreza hatchback. The demand helped the Tokyo-based
carmaker boost its full-year profit forecast by 40 percent even
as Honda and Nissan cut theirs by a fifth.

Last year, Fuji Heavy chief Yoshinaga said he felt his
perseverance was being “tested” after failing to get approval
for his company’s proposed joint venture with Chery Automobile
Co. Chinese authorities had balked because Toyota Motor Corp.,
which already has two joint ventures in China, is Fuji Heavy’s
largest shareholder, with a 16.5 percent stake.

China Rejection

China didn’t share Yoshinaga’s view that Fuji Heavy is
independently managed from Toyota. A third partnership in the
country for Toyota would have exceeded regulatory limits,
according to three people familiar with the situation.

Manufacturing locally is crucial because import taxes of 25
percent make cars built abroad uncompetitive. China is Subaru’s
third largest market, after the U.S. and Japan, but its growth
in the country has slowed. The company sold 57,198 Subaru cars
in China last year, versus 57,138 in 2010 and 35,348 in 2009.
Nissan Motor Co., which has a joint venture with Dongfeng Motor
Corp., delivered 1.25 million vehicles in the country last year.

The delay in getting approval for its venture with Chery
prompted Fuji Heavy in May to cut its projection for China
deliveries by 44 percent to 100,000 units for the year ending
March 2016. It also lowered its global sales target by 50,000 to
850,000 units.

‘Good Luck’

The China rejection was “disastrous for Subaru and we had
a very negative view at the time,” said Masatoshi Nishimoto, an
analyst with IHS Automotive in Tokyo. “Their misfortune turned
into a stroke of good luck after the anti-Japan protests. But in
the long term, Subaru can’t do without China.”

Fuji Heavy’s Chief Financial Officer, Mitsuru Takahashi,
agrees.

“We just happened to be lucky,”, Takahashi said in a Nov.
13 interview. “By chance we have been moving in an advantageous
direction. We are not carried away, and we are not assuming the
conditions will be favorable forever.”

Fuji Heavy shares have gained 27 percent since Sept. 14,
when anti-Japan protests broke out in China, outperforming
Toyota, Nissan and Honda. Researchers at Toyota estimate
Japanese automakers are unlikely to fully restore Chinese
production before July, according to a document obtained by
Bloomberg News this month.

Territorial Dispute

The decades-old territorial dispute, involving a group of
islands called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, was
reignited in April, when then-Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara,
a longtime critic of China, proposed buying the territories.
Though anti-Japan protests have subsided in China, tensions
continue to simmer.

Japan’s main opposition leader, Shinzo Abe, said Nov. 15 he
will boost control of the islands should his Liberal Democratic
Party win next month’s elections. China filed a formal
diplomatic protest after Abe met with the Dalai Lama Nov. 13 and
called for democracy in Tibet. Polls show the LDP may win the
national vote, returning Abe to the premiership.

Fuji Heavy may need to be more aggressive in expanding its
manufacturing capacity in North America to capitalize on the
growing demand for its vehicles, said Takeshi Miyao, an analyst
at market researcher Carnorama Japan.

U.S. Expansion

By 2014, the automaker plans to boost capacity at its plant
in Lafayette, Indiana, by 11 percent to 300,000 cars annually
and is considering further expansion in the U.S. Fuji Heavy may
sell 400,000 vehicles in the U.S. in fiscal 2015, exceeding an
earlier forecast for 380,000, Takeshi Tachimori, chief of Fuji
Heavy’s U.S. unit, said in June.

In Japan, the company has said it will increase production
at its main domestic plant in Gunma Prefecture by 20 percent to
180,000 vehicles by the summer of 2013. Government subsidies
helped boost domestic sales by 30 percent to 47,528 vehicles for
the six months ended September, led by the Legacy and Impreza,
according to the company.

“China is the largest vehicle market in the world and will
continue to grow,” Yoshinaga said last month at a press
briefing. “When we consider local production, besides the U.S.,
China is the place. This plan hasn’t changed.”