have, right now, of being the 2nd most lopsided in draft history? I would say it can never be #1, because of the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams Saints Fiasco. It's hard to top that(or the contuining idiocy of all teams involved see here: http://nfltrades.tum...kywilliamstrade). However, what is #2? And, what potential does this have to be known historically as #2, right now, today?

First the disclaimers:#1. Yes, we know we are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game. The question at hand: based on what we've already seen happen, in this short period of time, what is the probability that this trade is already looking to be a , historically? And, what chance does it have of being 2nd all-time?#2. Yes, we know that many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, and we also know that you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now. We also know that water is wet. None of this is useful, as the question is about estimating a %, not speaking in absolutes.#3. I am calling the "TJ McDonald @71 for Marquise Goodwin @78" aspect of this a wash. Of course lots can happen, and if you think it will either way, this should affect your % chance prediction. If you think it's a wash long term, then it doesn't affect you at all. The reason I am calling it a wash? I'm seeing the same coverage of both players = probably going to contribute sooner rather than later.

Next the facts. The entire trade boils down to us getting:EJ Manuel QBKiko Alonso ILBMarquise Goodwin WRChris Cragg TE

They got:Tavon Austin WRTJ McDonald S

If you pay attention to the reports about our guys, and sorta average them out:You might have noticed a pattern: "Gragg is a name to watch" sums it up. But, when everybody knows you are sleeper? You ain't. The point of the term sleeper = you will surprise some people. If everybody knows you will surprise, who is left to be surprised?

We already know Alonso is the starter, wearing the radio, and that was a major story in OTAs. He surprised. He won the job outright, right then. There hasn't been much more to say. Except this: Kiko is already rated as the 101st best Defensive player in the league, out of 352 starters? http://espn.go.com/f...fensive-players Without playing a down? Ahead of Alec Olgetree @ 108(ahem, 30th overall pick in 2013, ILB, picked by Rams ...so does that mean we've done them twice, with one pick?)? It's not just these guys saying it. I have a hard time with ranking Alonso at all right now, but, it ain't me doing it(so don't yell at me).

We know what is being said about EJ. For lack of a better standard: Regression towards the mean-->what is the value of a solid WR, compared to that of a solid QB?

Meanwhile, you could basically substitute what is being said about TJ Graham, or Robert Woods, or even Goodwin/ Da'Rick Rogers, for what is being said about Tavon Austin. People are happy with him, but aren't going bonkers for the guy. His coverage reminds me of the same thing Alonso is getting: "we know he's good, we'll see what happens, not much else to report".

Given this, you could probably make a straight up trade, right now, Alonso for Austin, and feel ok, maybe not good, about it, right?

But a trade for Alonso, Gragg AND EJ for Austin though? Even with the above disclaimers? Yeah, that's starting to look very unfair.

My %? I'd say that this trade, today, already has a 30-40% chance of being the 2nd most lopsided draft day trade of all time. The difference between this and the Ricky Williams trade might be: the unfairness doesn't come from ego-->stupidity.

If anything, it may simply come from the job the Bills did using the draft picks they got. With the Rams, while also doing a good job with the picks they got, ultimately rogering themselves, by giving away the chance to draft more players, for the chance to draft 1. Or, will it be as simple as: mistakenly bowing to the pressure to sell tickets in the short term?

Manuel never dominated in the ACC. Goodwin runs track. Alonso may be a slightly bigger less frail version of Poz - too slow. Cragg is another in a long line of low round TE's that suck. He survives he cut only because Chandler is coming off injury and Lee Smith is so bad he doesn't even fit into an NFL uniform.

I disagree, three reasons really:
You are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game.
Many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now.
I'm confused about the third reason.

Manuel never dominated in the ACC. Goodwin runs track. Alonso may be a slightly bigger less frail version of Poz - too slow. Cragg is another in a long line of low round TE's that suck. He survives he cut only because Chandler is coming off injury and Lee Smith is so bad he doesn't even fit into an NFL uniform.

I disagree, three reasons really:You are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game.Many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now.I'm confused about the third reason.

Pfft.

And they say Mods can't troll.

Also, how can you forget the famous Herschel Walker trade that turned into THREE Super Bowls for the Dallas Cowboys in four years......I think that beats even the Ricky Williams trade.

Was that a draft trade? I really don't know. I knew about it, but I didn't think it was a draft trade.

have, right now, of being the 2nd most lopsided in draft history? I would say it can never be #1, because of the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams Saints Fiasco. It's hard to top that(or the contuining idiocy of all teams involved see here: http://nfltrades.tum...kywilliamstrade). However, what is #2? And, what potential does this have to be known historically as #2, right now, today?

First the disclaimers:#1. Yes, we know we are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game. The question at hand: based on what we've already seen happen, in this short period of time, what is the probability that this trade is already looking to be a , historically? And, what chance does it have of being 2nd all-time?#2. Yes, we know that many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, and we also know that you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now. We also know that water is wet. None of this is useful, as the question is about estimating a %, not speaking in absolutes.#3. I am calling the "TJ McDonald @71 for Marquise Goodwin @78" aspect of this a wash. Of course lots can happen, and if you think it will either way, this should affect your % chance prediction. If you think it's a wash long term, then it doesn't affect you at all. The reason I am calling it a wash? I'm seeing the same coverage of both players = probably going to contribute sooner rather than later.

Next the facts. The entire trade boils down to us getting:EJ Manuel QBKiko Alonso ILBMarquise Goodwin WRChris Cragg TE

They got:Tavon Austin WRTJ McDonald S

If you pay attention to the reports about our guys, and sorta average them out:You might have noticed a pattern: "Gragg is a name to watch" sums it up. But, when everybody knows you are sleeper? You ain't. The point of the term sleeper = you will surprise some people. If everybody knows you will surprise, who is left to be surprised?

We already know Alonso is the starter, wearing the radio, and that was a major story in OTAs. He surprised. He won the job outright, right then. There hasn't been much more to say. Except this: Kiko is already rated as the 101st best Defensive player in the league, out of 352 starters? http://espn.go.com/f...fensive-players Without playing a down? Ahead of Alec Olgetree @ 108(ahem, 30th overall pick in 2013, ILB, picked by Rams ...so does that mean we've done them twice, with one pick?)? It's not just these guys saying it. I have a hard time with ranking Alonso at all right now, but, it ain't me doing it(so don't yell at me).

We know what is being said about EJ. For lack of a better standard: Regression towards the mean-->what is the value of a solid WR, compared to that of a solid QB?

Meanwhile, you could basically substitute what is being said about TJ Graham, or Robert Woods, or even Goodwin/ Da'Rick Rogers, for what is being said about Tavon Austin. People are happy with him, but aren't going bonkers for the guy. His coverage reminds me of the same thing Alonso is getting: "we know he's good, we'll see what happens, not much else to report".

Given this, you could probably make a straight up trade, right now, Alonso for Austin, and feel ok, maybe not good, about it, right?

But a trade for Alonso, Gragg AND EJ for Austin though? Even with the above disclaimers? Yeah, that's starting to look very unfair.

My %? I'd say that this trade, today, already has a 30-40% chance of being the 2nd most lopsided draft day trade of all time. The difference between this and the Ricky Williams trade might be: the unfairness doesn't come from ego-->stupidity.

If anything, it may simply come from the job the Bills did using the draft picks they got. With the Rams, while also doing a good job with the picks they got, ultimately rogering themselves, by giving away the chance to draft more players, for the chance to draft 1. Or, will it be as simple as: mistakenly bowing to the pressure to sell tickets in the short term?

On the surface, the 49ers NFL draft day trade with the Patriots seemed to be a good deal for both clubs. New England traded the No. 16 overall pick in exchange for San Francisco’s No. 28 and No. 56 overall picks. The two teams also swapped third round selections.Using our handy-dandy NFL draft value chart, we see that the 49ers came out of the deal with 1,230 points versus 1,170 for the Patriots.Sounds like a fair trade on the surface.But when you consider the 49ers selected Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice with the 16th overall pick, the NFL draft day trade becomes pretty lopsided in favor of San Francisco.

Manuel never dominated in the ACC. Goodwin runs track. Alonso may be a slightly bigger less frail version of Poz - too slow. Cragg is another in a long line of low round TE's that suck. He survives he cut only because Chandler is coming off injury and Lee Smith is so bad he doesn't even fit into an NFL uniform.

Other than that trade of the century!

I'll give you that Manuel hasn't "dominated", but he did play very well consistently.

As for Goodwin, you didn't watch much of Texas, did you? This guy is a football player that happened to also run track, not the other way around.

Your statement on Alonso is patently false; he couldn't be any more different than Poz. He's smaller than Poz (by about 10 lbs) and is much quicker; did you watch him at all in college?

I'm also curious about why you think Gragg (not Cragg) "sucks"? He is a very good athlete with above-average speed for a TE. He's 50/50 to make the roster based on physical ability alone. As for Chandler, by all accounts he'll be 100% to start the pre-season. Smith, well, he's mostly a blocking TE, so that comparison is apples-to-oranges.

In 1991 the Falcons traded Brett Farve to the Packers for the No. 19 overall pick in the first round of 1992 draft, and the Falcons drafted running back Tony Smith.

In 1975 the New York Giants thought they needed a quarterback and traded their first round (#2 overall) pick to Dallas for Roger Staubach's backup, Craig Morton. Dallas drafted Randy White.

In 1983 ,the Broncos sent quarterback Mark Hermann, the rights to offensive tackle Chris Hinton, and a first-round pick in 1984 (which became guard Ron Solt), to the Baltimore Colts in exchange for John Elway's rights.

The Steelers traded a second-round pick in 1996 and a fourth-rounder in 97 for Jerome Bettis and a third-round pick.

Tampa Bay traded Steve Young to San Francisco in 1987 for second and fourth-round picks.

In 1999, the Colts sent Faulk to St. Louis in exchange for second and fifth-round picks in the upcoming Draft.

Back in 1970, the Cleveland Browns made the mistake of trading wide receiver Paul Warfield to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a first-round pick in that year's NFL Draft.

the Saints traded Willie Roaf to the Kansas City Chiefs for a fourth-round pick in the 2003 NFL Draft.

If ej and Manuel turn out to be all pros, it could be one of those lopsided trades. I loved the trade down and loved the players we selected. Time will tell.

The link you provided to show that Alonso is ranked as the 101st best defensive player is a fantasy chart. It's garbage. Alonso is 101 and.......Richard Sherman is 119. Suh is 110. Do they think alonso is a better defensive player than Sherman or such? No, they think he's going to score more fantasy points. ILBs score lots of fantasy points.

0% chance, even if EJ and others become great players simply because this just wasn't a blockbuster trade... trading down a few slots wasn't a gamble for either side, and that's the real issue.

No QB was seen as a 1st round pick, so dropping back a few picks was a sleep-walk in the park, no-brainer. In fact, I think they could easily have gone further down in round 1 but hindsight is 20/20 on that.

I'm happy with the trade already because I think Tavon will be another Roscoe and "Parrish" in the hard-hitting NFL. Upside individually for EJ, Kiko, and Marquise is huge, and Gragg could actually learn how to catch the football.