4) The odds of being on a given departure which is the subject of a terrorist incident have been one in 10,408,947 over the past decade.

And the odds of being struck by lightning? One in 500,000.

thanks for the perspective, goes someway to demonstrating that the current protections do help mitigate the risks, though we should remain vigilant to the ever changing methods of the terrorists but sometimes we only know what they are once they've exploited a loophole (bit like a computer virus really).

And the odds of dieing in a car crash? around 1 in 7,000. (in the USA).

Why are people afraid of flying in general, when driving is more dangerous?

Psychology is a funny thing. People are not innately tuned for statistical analysis of risk.

Yet, the psychology is somewhat self-fulfilling. Terrorists know that people freak out about plane crashes, so they try to cause them. And then because people freak out, the economy is affected in very real ways.

I do sometimes wonder why terrorists are so fixated on aviation. This maybe helps explain it. There are so many relatively unprotected targets out there, outside of aviation. I'm thankful they apparently don't find these appealing.

However the odds of an future attack on a UK originating flight to the USA is much higher then those odds given above. This is because of the large number of pakistani and other muslim groups living in the UK who do not require a Visa to enter the US This is a large pool from which terrorist can find recruit militants from. Also the close relationship between the UK and the US makes it a UK originating flight to the US first choice for any Al Quaeda attack!

Quoting AFGMEL (Reply 2):About 120,000 US citizens die from accidents each year of which about 45,000 are in motor vehicles. Why everyone is scared of terrorists is beyond me.

Me too. There are many, many ways to die that are far more likely than being the target of a terrorist attack, and most of them are fully preventable. A person will freak out at the thought of a potential terrorist attack, but feel no qualms about texting while driving or keeping a gun in their house or even eating rare meat. All of these put you at statistically much higher risk of death than a terrorist attack.

I have never understood why some people are so frightened of all the wrong things.

I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!

A small point to add to the discusssion: the odds were calculated using history. They are good for looking at the past ten years. Forward, not so much. To the extent that past is not prologue, the odds do not apply to the future. They certainly say nothing about any particular future flight. The odds there are either zero or one.

The comparison to lightning was also invalid. Lightning is a naturally occurring event. Terrorism is not.

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 6):
I have never understood why some people are so frightened of all the wrong things.

Scale, story and the illusion of control. Lots of people die in a single plane crash, so it becomes noteworthy. Few people die in each car crash or other accident. The scale and the politics gives a compelling media narrative.

And while driving while texting is dangerous, people think they're in control of the situation. They aren't in control of somebody slipping plastic explosives through airport security.

Quoting Tharanga (Reply 3):Psychology is a funny thing. People are not innately tuned for statistical analysis of risk.

I think it boils down to control. In a motor vehicle there is an element of control (or at least perceived control) whereas in a plane you are completely out of control at 35,000 ft, travelling at 500mph. But I agree, statistically irrational.