The Year-over-year the drop in Japan’s retail sales is
worsening. But overall seasonally adjusted sales while down by a sharp
1.1% m/m in March are not accelerating their drop over three months
compared to six months. The 5.6% annual rate of decline over three
months is less than the 7.6% pace of decline over six months but still
much greater than the 3.7% pace of decline over 12-months. There is not
much good news in those trends. In the just-completed quarter, sales
are still falling at a rapid 7% annual rate compared to Q4. With Japan
poised for its traditional Golden Week holiday, consumer spending is
again set to be tested. While the US and Europe have showed some
sporadic signs of improvement in data trends, there has been little in
the way of constructive data from Japan as of yet.