The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is coming up quickly, on March 7, 2018, and many Canadians are wondering whether it means interest rates increasing again.

For the past nine months, much speculation has circled around the Bank of Canada interest rate, ever since it began increasing in July of 2017 from 0.5% to 0.75%. Since then, it has increased twice more — once in September of 2017, going up to 1%, and again on January 18, 2018, going up to 1.25%.

During the January Bank of Canada rate announcement, officials said interest rates would likely be increasing even more in 2018. So, will we see another hike on March 7?

Since the January announcement, economic experts have been debating that very question — and so far the consensus is that while we likely won’t see interest rates increasing in March, it won’t be long before they do rise again.

“We continue to expect that the Bank of Canada will again raise its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in April,” the PBO said in the latest Economic and Fiscal Monitor report.

The PBO isn’t the only one making the prediction that interest rates will increase again — at least once this year — but other experts aren’t quite agreeing on when it will happen. While the Bank did say that further interest rate increases are likely in the forecast, the Governing Council also said that it would approach any further hikes with caution.

According to the CBC, markets currently aren’t predicting an interest rate increase in March, with only a 27.7 per cent probability of a boost. The CBC says interest rates are more likely to increase again closer to the end of 2018.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has said that he doesn’t know when interest rates will increase again, as the answer is influenced by so many factors.

“…we’ve explained to people that there are a number of important issues that force us to not be mechanical or to use a rule or to plan ahead in that way,” Poloz told CNCB.

“We’ve said we are totally data dependent.”

In the same interview, Poloz also made mention of Canada’s high level of consumer debt and said that he felt the economy would be “more sensitive to higher interest rates than in the past.”

When the Bank of Canada increases interest rates again is also dependent on NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from NAFTA, which would significantly alter the trade deal and Canada’s economy.

As of right now, it seems unlikely that we’ll see interest rates increasing in March, but so much can change so quickly it’s, of course, impossible to say for sure.

GeoWarehouse tools can help you stay on top of your game no matter what Bank of Canada rate announcements come our way. Our state-of-the-art mapping, research tools, and professional reports make you the expert. Learn more at www.geowarehouse.ca.

New mortgage rules are changing the Canadian real estate market. While it’s yet to be determined how much the market will change in response to the latest regulations, there is sure to be an impact.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions announced the new mortgage rules in October 2017. They came into effect on January 1, 2018. In summary, Canada’s new mortgage rules include:

Uninsured mortgages with down payments of 20% or higher will be subject to an additional mortgage stress test.

Lenders will be under more scrutiny around the loan-to-value ratio.

New limitations on co-lending or bundled mortgages.

What does this mean for the real estate sales professional?

Experts say the biggest impact of the new mortgage rules are that house hunters will be able to afford less home for the same amount of money. This could mean that people shopping in less affordable markets, such as Toronto or Vancouver, will only be able to afford a condo potentially, instead of a house. It could also mean that homebuyers may move away from more expensive neighbourhoods. Experts predict the new mortgage rules will be hardest for first-time homebuyers as it will be harder to qualify for a mortgage.

Real estate sales professionals who sell in a more suburban area may see the opposite of a cooling. It’s possible those selling in more affordable markets will actually see a rapid influx of purchases as house hunters move away from more expensive neighbourhoods, choosing to commute or work remotely. If this happens, you will need to be agile to adapt to the increased demand.

If you’re selling in a more expensive neighbourhood, you would also need to be agile — consider expanding your market, or targeting new demographic markets. Toronto buyers may be more able to afford condos versus homes. Or perhaps you can shift your focus to a more affordable area.

In either case, with new mortgage rules in effect, real estate sales professionals need to stay competitive. Having good tools is the best way to remain agile in a changing Canadian real estate market. Technology, such as the tools offered through GeoWarehouse, can help you assess your clients’ buying abilities and financial situation. Tools such as the GeoWarehouse Demographics Report can pinpoint opportunities in your existing market or point you to new neighbourhoods.

GeoWarehouse has the tools to help you stay competitive. Visit www.geowarehouse.ca today to see them all.

*An official product of the Ontario government pursuant to provincial land registration statutes.

In January the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM rose 0.3% from the previous month, a tic higher than the historical average for January and a second consecutive monthly increase. However, only four of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed showed gains – the first time since January 2016 that a rise in the Composite Index has had so little breadth. It was due mainly to a second straight monthly jump of the index for the important Vancouver market (1.2% in January on the heels of 1.3% in December). The Toronto index rose 0.2%, the Victoria index 1.0% and the Montreal index edged up 0.1%. All the other component indexes were down on the month: Hamilton (−0.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (‑0.2%), Edmonton (−0.3%), Calgary (−0.3%), Halifax (-1.0%), Winnipeg (−1.1%) and Quebec City (−2.0%). For Montreal, it was a 13th monthly increase, and for Hamilton it was a fifth decrease in a row.

The rise of the Toronto index was the first in six months. The raw (unsmoothed) Toronto index [1]on which it is based was up for a third consecutive month. The firming of the smoothed index is due entirely to condo dwellings. The smoothed index for non-condo units fell in January for a sixth straight month, bringing its cumulative decline to 9.6%.

Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

For Vancouver, January was a ninth consecutive month without a decline. The cumulative rise over that period was 14.5% – 18.2% for condo units and 11.4% for all other housing. Vancouver and Montreal were the only markets surveyed whose index reached an all-time high in January.

In January the composite index was up 8.7% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month rise since May 2016 and a seventh consecutive deceleration from the record 12-month gains of 14.2% last June. The January 12-month rise was led by Vancouver (16.9%), Victoria (12.3%) and Hamilton (9.8%). Toronto’s rise of 8.4% from a year earlier was slightly below the countrywide average. The 12-month advance was below the countrywide average but still respectable for Ottawa-Gatineau (5.6%), Montreal (5.4%), Winnipeg (3.6%) and Halifax (2.5%). It was minimal for Calgary (0.1%) and zero for Edmonton. The Quebec City index was down 1.2% from a year earlier.

Indexes were up from a year earlier for all of 14 markets not included in the countrywide composite index, though the rise ranged widely from 2.8% in Sudbury (Ontario) to 21.4% in Abbotsford-Mission (B.C.).

Valentine’s Day is right around the corner and we want to be your date! Join us for one of our superb real estate training sessions. W have several happening this week.

If you’re too busy spending time with your loved one, we have you covered. If you see a real estate training session you like but can’t attend this month, reserve your spot now to join us at a later date.

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Check out what we have to offer:

NEW GeoWarehouse Webinars for Real Estate Board members

These webinars are for Real Estate Board members who would like to learn more about the NEW GeoWarehouse.

Webinar #1: All About NEW GeoWarehouse.

Learn about all of the features available in your GeoWarehouse subscription. Topics include how to search for a property, how to use the Property Report and Comparable Sales Report, and how to purchase official records from the Land Registration System of Ontario.

This webinar is for organizations that have a Standard GeoWarehouse subscription and would like to learn about the NEW GeoWarehouse. You’ll discover how to make the most of your subscription, including maximizing your branding opportunities, performing additional due diligence, and generating customized reports that give you the data you need.

Canadian real estate industry events can be a great opportunity for real estate sales professionals. For one thing, the events are informative and chockfull of great information you can put to practical use. For another, they allow you time to meet others in your field and get a birds’ eye view of the Canadian real estate industry.

No real estate sales professional is an island, and one of these events could help you make 2018 your most profitable and productive year yet.

The tools offered by GeoWarehouse can help you stand out during these Canadian real estate industry events and in your own business. Our property tools make you the expert. Learn more at www.geowarehouse.ca.