UPDATE: Will Gulf system bring more rain?

The final weeks of peak hurricane season can be a dangerous period along the Gulf Coast of Florida.

This is the time of year when powerful storms are most likely to form in the Caribbean and enter the Gulf of Mexico.

But it has been a slow season for tropical weather and forecasters expect that to continue into October, typically the last month for major hurricanes.

Tropical systems — including a broad area of low pressure generating thunderstorms south of Jamaica — should struggle to gain strength as conditions that suppressed hurricane activity throughout the summer remain in place.

“The odds of an active October are pretty minimal,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist with Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.

“I don't see anything significant on the horizon” for at least the next two weeks, he added.

Hurricanes feed off of moisture in the atmosphere, but air in the tropical Atlantic basin has been unusually dry this year.

Dry air is limiting development of the low pressure system in the Caribbean that is expected to move into the Gulf later this week. Forecasters give the disturbance a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Computer models show the system tracking anywhere from Mexico to Southwest Florida, but “I'd be surprised if it becomes a hurricane,” said Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters.

The worst impact likely would be heavy rainfall, potentially generating more flooding in areas of Florida already drenched from a wet September.

“You could easily get two to four inches, maybe more” if the system moves over Florida, Masters said.

The National Weather Service posted a 50 percent chance of rain in the area from Wednesday through Sunday because of the increase in moisture in the atmosphere.

But Masters agrees that October is less likely to bring major hurricanes this year.

A variety of factors have contributed to the dry atmosphere, he said, including a drought in Brazil, “super dry” air blowing off Africa from the Saharan dessert, and a global weather pattern that is currently generating downdrafts of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic.

“Tropical storms like to have updrafts to sustain them and if you have downdrafts you're squashing tropical storm activity,” Masters said, adding that “the odds are less than usual that we'll see tropical storm activity” in October.

Another hurricane or two is still possible though, Masters said. And the west coast of Florida is a prime target for October storms. Instead of forming off the coast of Africa, tropical cyclones tend to develop in the Caribbean during October, jog north into the Gulf and then get pulled east by cold fronts.

“This is a time of year western Florida really needs to be prepared,” Masters said.

Meanwhile, the tenth named system of the season, Tropical Storm Jerry, formed on Monday in the eastern Atlantic, where it is expected to remain, posing no threat to land.