New York|G.O.P. Hopefuls in New York Races Walk Tightrope on Donald Trump

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G.O.P. Hopefuls in New York Races Walk Tightrope on Donald Trump

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John Faso, center, the Republican candidate in New York’s 19th District, at the Hudson Valley Apple Festival last month. He said he was “outraged and appalled” by Donald Trump’s remarks on groping women but said he will not vote for Hillary Clinton.CreditCreditNathaniel Brooks for The New York Times

In a normal year, down-ballot candidates in the home state of their party’s presidential nominee count on Election Day to provide a big boost from voters energized to send their candidate to the White House.

But nothing this year is normal.

Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, a conservative Republican running for Congress in upstate New York, has consistently said she will vote for her party’s presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump, who has polled strongly against Hillary Clinton among voters in her district.

In New York State and elsewhere, candidates and political operatives are trying to gauge the effect that the constant swirl of controversy around Mr. Trump will have on close races like Ms. Tenney’s — an even more intense exercise since the release of Mr. Trump’s recorded boasts of groping women and accusations from several women that he touched them inappropriately.

In some areas where Mr. Trump remains popular, Republican hopefuls must walk a tightrope between expressing support for him and distancing themselves from a candidate who may become toxic to the moderates and independents they need to win.

“It’s definitely a very unique election cycle and run for president,” said Kim Myers, a Democrat running against Ms. Tenney in the 22nd District, which includes Utica and Binghamton. “Most of the people I talk to are very upset at what’s happening on the presidential level.”

Analysts said the so-called Trump effect could play out in different ways in different parts of the state. Where Mr. Trump remains popular, voters could reward candidates who remain loyal to him. But elsewhere, his low standing with moderates, women and college-educated voters could tip close races to Democrats, and make otherwise safe Republican seats competitive.

“It’s not that Hillary will sway them; it’s that Trump will scare them,” Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist, said. Perhaps the greatest fear for Republicans is that Mr. Trump could have a negative effect on turnout.

“If Republican women are so turned off by Trump that they can’t come out and vote for him and they can’t vote for her,” she said, “are they going to say these other candidates represent change, or are they going to say just forget the whole lot?”

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While some Republicans in New York have distanced themselves form Mr. Trump, Lee Zeldin, a Republican representative running for re-election on Long Island, is still supporting him. In Mr. Zeldin’s district, Mr. Trump won 73 percent of the vote in the Republican primary.CreditAn Rong Xu for The New York Times

The race in the 22nd District is unusual because it also includes a well-financed independent candidate, Martin Babinec, a wealthy technology sector businessman. A recent Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll showed Ms. Tenney with support from 35 percent of voters surveyed, with Ms. Myers at 30 percent and Mr. Babinec at 24 percent. In the poll, released on Sept. 29, before Mr. Trump’s boasts about groping women became public, Mr. Trump led Mrs. Clinton by 11 points in the district.

“Voters are not only angry and frustrated, but are asking questions about how did we find ourselves in this situation,” Mr. Babinec said, adding that the “election drama at the top of the ticket raised interest and appetite for the value of an independent candidate.”

Ms. Tenney did not respond to requests for an interview, but her spokeswoman, Hannah Andrews, said Mr. Trump’s comments about groping women had not changed her position. “She says she will vote for him and supports him,” Ms. Andrews said.

But an ad running on Ms. Tenney’s behalf, paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee, sounds a very different note. It makes no mention of Mr. Trump, warns ominously about the Islamic State and job losses, and says Ms. Myers would be a rubber stamp for Mrs. Clinton — implying that she will be the next president.

The 22nd District is one of many across the country seen as crucial to both parties’ congressional hopes. It is currently represented by a Republican, Representative Richard L. Hanna, who is retiring. Mr. Hanna, perhaps freed by not having to run for re-election, has denounced Mr. Trump and said he plans to vote for Mrs. Clinton.

Mr. Faso has sent mixed messages about his party’s nominee. He has simultaneously voiced disagreement with Mr. Trump, said he supports the Republican ticket, and refused to say whether he will vote for him. “I’m not voting for Hillary Clinton,” he said in a recent telephone interview when asked if he would vote for Mr. Trump.

“As a husband and father I was simply outraged and appalled,” Mr. Faso said about Mr. Trump’s boasts of grabbing women’s genitals; he called the remarks “wholly inappropriate for someone running for public office.”

Yet, while he acknowledged that Mr. Trump’s candidacy put him and other Republicans in a bind, Mr. Faso said he did not think it would determine the outcome of his race for Congress.

“The vast majority of voters understand there are different candidates running for different offices, and there probably will be a lot of ticket splitting this year,” he said, referring to those who vote for a presidential candidate from one party and down-ballot candidates from another.

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Representative Lee Zeldin, center, a Republican incumbent on Long Island, speaking with campaign volunteers this month.CreditAn Rong Xu for The New York Times

Steven Greenberg, a pollster with the Siena College Research Institute, said many independent voters in New York lean Republican.

“If those voters stay home, that could have a major impact on a congressional race,” he said. “Anything can tip the balance.”

Elsewhere in New York, attention has focused on several other races that could potentially be in play. In the 24th District, which includes Syracuse, the Republican incumbent, Representative John Katko, appears to have a comfortable lead over Colleen Deacon, a Democrat. But the seat has repeatedly flipped from one party to the other over more than a decade. Mr. Katko, a moderate, distanced himself early on from Mr. Trump, and this month declared he would not vote for him.

In both races, although the incumbents are seen to be in relatively good shape, a so-called super PAC that backs Republicans, the Congressional Leadership Fund, in recent days has spent heavily on television advertising on their behalf — a strong indication of how Mr. Trump’s disastrous October has forced his party to act defensively.

But in more liberal Nassau County, in the Third District, where Democrats outnumber Republicans among registered voters, the story is different in the race for the seat that will be left vacant by the retiring incumbent Democrat, Representative Steve Israel. Analysts said Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, will quite likely be aided by anti-Trump suburban voters in his race against State Senator Jack M. Martins, a Republican.

Mr. Trump’s impact is also being watched on races for the New York State Senate, which is narrowly controlled by Republicans. There are about 10 Senate races across the state that observers believe could tilt either way.

“We have some tremendous tailwinds bolstering our cause, due to the national dynamic,” said State Senator Michael Gianaris of Queens, who leads political operations for Democrats seeking to claim a Senate majority.

In particular, Democrats sense an opening in the race for the Nassau County seat being vacated by Mr. Martins, as well as other seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, where there are plenty of the moderate suburban voters most likely to be turned off by Mr. Trump.

Scott Reif, a spokesman for the Senate Republicans, said State Senator John J. Flanagan, the current majority leader, “has made clear that Donald Trump’s recent comments are offensive and intolerable, and do not represent his values or those of the men and women of the Senate Republican Conference.”

Jesse McKinley contributed reporting from Albany.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A16 of the New York edition with the headline: G.O.P. Hopefuls in State Congressional Races Walk Tightrope on Trump. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe