Regular season shows us that postseason should be just as unpredictable

The picks

Well, if 2012 showed us one thing on the high school football scene, it’s that anything can happen.

This year, it probably did.

Injuries to key players. Teams breaking long playoff droughts, others persevering through unexpected adversity and a topsy-turvy season where few things seemed to be consistent from week to week were just part of what made the 2012 regular season what it was.

And what it was was unpredictable.

We actually predicted correctly 10 of the 15 district champions for our area districts this season. Beyond that, however, it was a crapshoot. Some teams who had been perennial playoff contenders suddenly hit slumping seasons. Some teams that thought this was the year for a rebound found themselves right back where they’ve been struggling with consistency.

Then there are teams like Shallowater, and Post, and Ralls, who none of us outside those programs saw coming what they put together this year.

But that it all means is that you better buckle your seatbelt for the playoffs, because it’s likely to be a wild ride.

There are legitimately maybe a half-dozen teams with a legitimate shot of going 4-5 rounds deep and maybe challenging for a state title. But, outside of perhaps Post, Shallowater and Frenship, no teams have been on a real big roll going into the postseason.

Of course, being on a roll doesn’t guarantee anything. Just ask the Tigers, who went undefeated last year and were rudely bounced in bi-district by Wichita Falls Rider. Don’t think that’s not in their minds this week going up to Canyon, either.

But the good news is realignment did most of the large classifications a favor by keeping the Metroplex districts at by until the third round. For example, Frenship looks like on paper the strongest team in its half of Division II in this region, while the other half may come down to a Randall-Rider winner in the regional quarterfinals.

Shallowater is the only undefeated team in this region in Division II of Class 3A and could see a third-round rematch with Monahans. Plus, a rested Jarek Black came back to work this past week and should be full speed for the playoffs.

How about a Idalou-Muleshoe third-round clash and the winner of that maybe meeting Littlefield down the road? And then 1A in this region is so stacked it’s going to be a dogfight each night.

But, then again, what do we know? If the regular season is any indication, we’re due for an even wilder ride over the next six weeks.

The picks

Lubbock High at Amarillo (today): The Westerners are to be highly commended for breaking a 37-year playoff drought. Congratulations, you get the Sandies, who LHS hasn’t beaten since 1973. Amarillo 45, Lubbock High 14.

Palo Duro at Monterey: The question here is whether the Plainsmen secondary can slow down Charleston White and the Dons’ passing game. If not, it could be a short stay for Monterey. Monterey 31, Palo Duro 27.

Frenship at Canyon: True, Canyon is not the prolific team that Rider was last year, but after what happened in 2011, don’t expect the Tigers to let their guard down. Frenship 38, Canyon 13.

Estacado vs. Perryton (Saturday): Two teams come into this game from different directions. Perryton is on a roll, while Estacado has to rebound from Friday’s loss. The Mats must get going early. Estacado 31, Perryton 21.

Shallowater vs. Dalhart: Just in time for the playoffs, the Mustangs showed the ability to throw the ball consistently. If they do that again Friday, Jarek Black could have a big day. Shallowater 41, Dalhart 24.

New Deal vs. Panhandle: Even though the Lions lost their regular-season finale, they should be feeling good going into the postseason. As long as they stay focused, they should be OK. New Deal 26, Panhandle 13.

Lubbock Christian vs. Dallas First Baptist: The Eagles have played well down the stretch and should be motivated for this game. But First Baptist is very prolific at throwing the ball, so LCHS will have to match. First Baptist 38, LCHS 28.

Last week: 4-3

Season: 64-27 (.703)

GEORGE WATSON IS SPORTS EDITOR OF THE AVALANCHE-JOURNAL. HE CAN BE HEARD AT 6 P.M. WEDNESDAYS ON “THE HIGH SCHOOL EXPERIENCE” ON KKAM 1340 AM.