Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, is a member of the Spanish Council of State, a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University, and a member of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on the United States.

Comments

Brexit needs to go through the stages of grief. By Ana Palacio's reckoning we in the second stage, which sounds aboutright.

So based Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance it would seem a few more months are required before bargaining actually starts properly. Article 50 is an appalling piece of scorched earth, typical of the EU psyche. Designed to ratchet to create exactly what Ana Palacio, rightly, fears. Read more

THE PURGATORYGreece, Great Britain, Germany - 3 G whose misdemeanours need purification in The Purgatory.All that remains is for Mexico to create The American Union - and subject Canada and USA to Article 50.Poland and Mexico perhaps poster children for The EU and The AU - in charge of Article 50.Article 50 perhaps Article 1 in the constitution of the USSR.What The USSR couldn't, now the objective @ The EUSSR.Mikhail Gorbachev saw the evolution of The EUSSR 20 years ago.The purgatory of invective looks like Scorched Earth.Europe hasn't moved one inch beyond 1534.Endless Migration to The Anglosphere.Forever. Read more

Ana Palacio is not impressed by the exchange of blunt rhetoric in recent weeks between Britain and the EU. Her "Brexit paradox" is that: "the longer it takes for pragmatism to re-enter the debate, the higher the chance that the chilling effect of the unknown will cause permanent damage" to both sides of the Channel. In fact, neither Theresa May nor her EU counterparts seem to have a clue about the outcome of the Brexit process. They appear to muddle along and play by ear, kicking the can down the road. Their spiky rhetoric might just be muscle flexing.During the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham three weeks ago, May declared that "she would invoke Article 50 no later than March 2017." The author questions the timing of May's move, as "the first months of official negotiations will coincide with national elections in the Netherlands, France, and Germany," fearing Europe would take "a tough position." May's "hard negotiating stance" during her speech, "declaring that halting immigration would take precedence over retaining access to the single market," had triggered a response "in kind" from her European counterparts - Angela Merkel, François Hollande and Donald Tusk. "May’s cool reception" at the October European Council last week doesn't bode well for the Brexit negotiations. Hardly have they begun, "a standoff already appears inevitable."At home May faces pressure from Eurosceptic Tory MPs who are plotting a major campaign to push her into delivering a “hard Brexit”. A new group, "Leave Means Leave," was launched last week, with the aim of taking Britain out of the EU’s single market, clawing back its own legislative powers and seizing control of its borders. On the other hand she had been criticised for planning to prevent members of Parliament from voting on the decision to leave the EU before Article 50 is triggered. Her office later announced that MPs would "very likely" be able to vote on the final Brexit agreement reached between the UK and the European Union. But campaigners have been calling for a vote before Article 50 is triggered.Another hornet's nest is May's cabinet, which is split over Brexit. Chancellor Philip Hammond is said to favour a "soft Brexit", putting economic considerations ahead of arbitrary controls on immigration. He seems to have angered cabinet Brexiteers, who accused him of not being helpful enough in pushing for Britain leaving the EU. May's three "Brexiteers" - Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox and Brexit Secretary David Davis - want both a tougher line on immigration and the single market, which falls on deaf ears in Brussels."And questions about Scotland’s future status vis-à-vis the UK and the EU are intensifying." Indeed, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned Theresa May that she is not "bluffing" over her promise to hold an independence referendum if Scotland's vote against Brexit is "not respected".After talks in Downing Street, she said she was not prepared to see "Scotland driven off a hard Brexit cliff-edge". She and the first ministers of Wales and Northern Ireland demanded to be fully consulted on EU negotiations.The author says uncertainty and the exchange of "harsh" rhetoric have taken a toll on business. "Last month, Renault-Nissan became the first major company to announce that it would review its planned investment activities in the UK, owing to the lack of clarity on the post-Brexit trade and legal regime. It surely will not be the last." Also"rumblings that banks are planning to pull out of the UK as early as the first month of 2017 on account of the ever-worsening rhetoric surrounding the Brexit negotiations" would deal a hard blow to the City of London, which has helped the UK to become the biggest net exporter of financial services in the world.The author urges leaders to opt for a win-win situation, and "to take steps to minimize uncertainty." First of all, they have to "take a step back from the brink and infuse some sobriety into the discussion."A “hard Brexit” means the UK would have to sever all ties with the single market, which is hardly beneficial to Britons. But neither Europe nor Britain "can afford years of harsh rhetoric, posturing, and uncertainty."She proposes an arrangement that the EU has with Norway. "Such an agreement could be defined relatively quickly, easing the pressure to rush into decisions on thorny issues relating to the EU budget, the jurisdiction of European courts, and migration, while putting in place a broader framework for cooperation. It would also give the EU time to undertake its own internal assessment, including a review of the contours of the freedom-of-movement requirement."What works for Norway, may not necessarily work for Britain. The two countries are very different, and it takes time to negotiate a bespoke deal, which means people will have to live with uncertainty.﻿ Read more

PS On Air: The Super Germ Threat

NOV 2, 2016

In the latest edition of PS On
Air
, Jim O’Neill discusses how to beat antimicrobial resistance, which
threatens millions of lives, with Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky
and Leonardo Maisano of
Il Sole 24 Ore.

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