Who could lose in confirmation vote?

“I was noticed during the Rehnquist hearings, he got madder than hell at me,” Specter recalled.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas): Voting-age Hispanics represent about 29 percent of Texas’ population, according to figures computed after the 2008 general election by the group the National Committee for an Effective Congress. Hutchison voted against Sotomayor in 1998 when she was nominated to a federal appeals court. But she wasn’t a candidate for governor, as she is now, and her party wasn’t as desperate for Latino votes as it is now.

The trick for Hutchison: Before she can run in the general election, she’s got to beat conservative Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP primary. That may force her to play to the base to win over skeptical conservative primary voters – even if that means losing support from Hispanics in a general-election run. Her Texas counterpart, John Cornyn, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, also will have to gauge any Hispanic backlash since many GOP candidates in 2010 will certainly be reading his signals.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R): Crist has the Washington GOP establishment firmly behind him in his race to become the next U.S. senator from Florida. But he is viewed as a moderate – and more moderate than former state House Speaker Marco Rubio – which could be a knock against Crist in a 2010 primary dominated by conservatives. Rubio, a Spanish speaker of Cuban descent, already has raised concerns about Sotomayor, calling some of her past comments “troubling,” and he could emerge as a high-profile Hispanic Republican critic of her nomination. The question: Will Rubio’s criticism give Crist cover if he wants to join in the opposition?

Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska): Begich is a one of several red-state freshmen that conservatives hope to turn against Sotomayor based on her position on social issues – especially gun rights. In a 2009 Second Amendment case, Sotomayor sided against some gun-rights supporters, and conservative groups plan to highlight that ruling to put the pressure on Democrats in gun-friendly states such as Alaska.

A Begich spokeswoman said the senator is looking forward to “learning more about her as the nomination process goes forward.”

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.): Lincoln is among the top NRSC targets this year, and she is certain to hear the argument that Sotomayor’s positions fall outside of the mainstream of voters in her state.

She could be given cover if Republicans join in support of Sotomayor; if not, she will certainly face enormous pressure from Republicans in Washington and back home to join in the opposition.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.): Dodd’s home state has a big Puerto Rican population, and he’ll need every vote he can get now that he’s emerged as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat seeking reelection and is trailing former Republican congressman Rob Simmons in statewide polls. Dodd, whose popularity ratings have tanked since his unsuccessful run for president in 2008, could try to lock down the Latino constituency that Republicans are courting aggressively as well.