Elder Bush's SOTU holds lessons

COLLEGE STATION, Texas—George H.W. Bush delivered the most highly-praised State of the Union of his presidency 20 years ago this month, rallying the country behind him in advance of the impending liberation of Kuwait.

Yet the way Bush talked about the economy that night set him on the path to political defeat two years later.

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There are important lessons for President Barack Obama as he prepares to deliver the State of the Union Tuesday at the same stage in his presidency. Obama’s biggest challenge in 2012 likely will be convincing voters that the economy has turned around. His team gets that in a way Bush’s didn’t, but many Democrats are looking to Obama to persuade the public that this time he’s serious about that long-promised pivot to focus on creating jobs.

A review of White House documents available here in the Bush presidential library archives reveals the internal polling and thinking that led to Bush’s fateful decision to downplay the country’s recession and to focus on foreign policy at the expense of flushing out a realistic, cohesive or fresh domestic agenda.

Similarities between 44 and 41

Obama is sometimes compared to another Democrat: Jimmy Carter, but another one-termer, Bush, is a useful and often overlooked example.

During the first half of his presidency, Bush faced similar problems: a (savings-and-loan) financial crisis that prompted a federal bailout, a major oil spill (in Alaska) that made his government look inept, the decision to send troops overseas and electoral losses in the midterms.

He agreed to a deeply unpopular 1990 budget deal that violated his “read my lips” promise not to raise taxes and irked the conservative base. Obama broke his 2008 campaign promise not to extend the Bush tax cuts for the rich, alienating liberals and ensuring it’s an issue during his reelection campaign by only extending them through 2012.

Early hints at what’s in Obama’s State of the Union suggest parallels to Bush’s 1991 rhetoric. Bush stressed then that he was fiscally conservative but willing to invest in education, transportation and energy. Obama is expected to talk about how he’s fiscally conservative but willing to invest in education, transportation and technology.

Obama will talk Tuesday about “winning the future.” Bush spoke in 1991 of a “nation that believes in the future.”

To be sure, there are differences. Bush’s delivery was notoriously flat; Obama’s ability to inspire propelled him to the presidency and heightens expectations.

Bush’s approval rating had spiked to almost 70 percent by the end of January as he mobilized an international coalition to liberate Kuwait six months after Iraq had invaded, but Obama also finds himself with momentum after the successful lame duck session and his widely praised Tucson speech.

Despite Bush’s sky-high job approval rating, a CBS poll taken just before the 1991 speech found 43 percent approval for Bush’s handling of the economy, with 44 percent disapproval. For context, a CBS poll conducted last week found 41 percent approval of Obama’s handling of the economy with 52 percent disapproval.

Downplaying the recession

The U.S. is not now in a recession, as it was in 1991. But Bush used the R-word just once in his 50-minute speech. “We will get this recession behind us and return to growth soon,” he said.