This looks problematic for the Tories

The percentages in the CONHome article look quite stark particularly as this comes a week when women in politics have been under the spotlight. The fact that it refers just four puts it into a slightly different context.

Clearly the reality of becoming an MP has not lived up to expectations and if the polls stay asas they are then the prospect of defeat must add to concerns. Being in coalition has taken away many of the promotion possibilities and the prospect for a ministerial career look a lot more limited.

My guess is that we’ll see quite few more of the CON Class of 2010 making the same decisions.

The problem for the Tories is that defending seats with non sitting MPs is going to be more challenging because there will be no first defence incumbency bonus.

The Lib Dems are also going to struggle because quite a few MPs have announced their retirement.