The secret to Bob Baffert’s success is an open secret. Behind those trademark sunglasses reside the sharpest eyes in horse racing.

Justify’s Hall of Fame trainer is seeking his second Triple Crown in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, and without revolutionary methods or scientific breakthroughs. His competitive edge is manifest in how much he sees and how little escapes his notice.

“Bob is one of the few guys in the world — maybe two, possibly three — that if they told me to go look at this horse, ‘He’s a super nice horse, you’re going to like him,’ I really would like him,” rival trainer D. Wayne Lukas said. “If Bob told me that, I wouldn’t have to go look. I’d just say, ‘Go mark that one down in the catalog because he’s a hell of a nice horse.’”

Long before he became the default setting for the most promising and best-pedigreed thoroughbreds, Baffert made his mark by recognizing potential others missed and converting auction bargains into bonanzas.

Profiling the trainer 15 years ago for GQ, the late Bill Nack captured Baffert’s colorful essence in a sentence: “What he brought to the show, his quips and clowning aside, was an uncannily sharp eye for horseflesh.”

Like Lukas, Baffert is a product of the sprint-oriented quarter-horse circuit and retains a bias toward raw speed in dealing with thoroughbreds and longer distances. He has found, however, that many of the same principles apply in assessing a horse’s conformation and capabilities.

Baffert won the first two of his five Kentucky Derbys with Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet (1998), a pair of horses purchased for a modest total of $102,000, and the third with War Emblem (2002), a notoriously fractious colt that had been in his barn for barely three weeks.

"He'll buy a horse that no one else will want for certain reasons," said Mike Pegram, one of Baffert's earliest backers. "Real Quiet is the first one to come to mind. His pedigree was not bad at all, but he was a crooked-legged horse. Bobby knew he was an athlete and if he grew into that body, he'd have something.

"... Honestly, it's just a God-given gift. I don't know if he could tell you what it is himself."

Posted!

A link has been posted to your Facebook feed.

Trainer Bob Baffert, left, Elliott Walden, right, President and CEO of Winstar Farm, with Triple Crown contender Justify, headed to the track for one last workout before the Belmont Stakes. June 4, 2108 By Pat McDonogh, The Courier Jou

Triple Crown contender Justify, with jockey Martin Garcia aboard, puts in a final workout before being shipped to New York for the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. June 4, 2018. By Pat McDonogh, The Courier Jou

Justify raises a hind leg while being bathed on the backside at Churchill Downs. The colt put in his final workout before shipping to New York for the Belmont Stakes. June 4, 2018. By Pat McDonogh, The Courier Jou

Interested in this topic? You may also want to view these photo galleries:

Such was Baffert’s reputation for refining raw talent that when horsemen caught their first glimpse of the 2-year-old American Pharoah at a Zayat Stables function in Florida, they were immediately struck by his brilliance and resigned that a trainer who hadn’t bothered to show up was sure to get him.

“Everyone knew the horse was special from day one,” trainer Dale Romans remembered. “And everybody knew where he was going. He went to the right trainer.”

Zayat Stables now lists 11 affiliated trainers on its website, three of whom have already been inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame. Though the list is not alphabetical, Baffert’s biography appears first, befitting his status as the family operation’s go-to guy.

“I never give him 20 horses, and I never give him two,” Justin Zayat said. “I usually send him a horse who is a super horse, going to catch his eye; a Derby horse. ... Out of all the trainers I’ve worked with, Bob works the horse once and he knows if the horse has it or doesn’t have it.”

Support our journalism

He has been right often enough to gain the confidence of his clients and to avoid the micromanagement and second-guessing that owners sometimes impose on less-accomplished trainers. Though NBC analyst Donna Barton Brothers believes “there are a lot of horsemen as good as Bob,” she is quick to add that many of them lack the leeway to act with as much independence.

“He’s gotten to the point of his success,” she said, “where he’s given free rein to call an audible any time he wants.”

“People trust me, and they leave me alone,” Baffert said last week at Churchill Downs. “That’s the main thing, if they leave you alone. Some people, they want to push you a little bit. (But) If you start pushing horses, it doesn’t work out. So I have that.”

Baffert earned enough latitude to scratch American Pharoah from the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Juvenile because of a bruise. More recently, he was willing to delay Justify’s debut until February of his 3-year-old campaign, flouting the so-called “curse of Apollo” that held that a horse that had not raced as a 2-year-old could not win the Derby.

Trusting a gut that sends different signals on different days about different horses, Baffert can be bold or cautious as circumstances shift. Though Pegram says, "Bobby's not afraid to fire an owner," Bloodstock agent Ric Waldman credits Baffert for thinking in tune with those who invest in him, aware of their goals and adept at extracting a horse’s ultimate value.

“I’m not afraid to get beat,” Baffert said. “I think a lot of trainers, they’re afraid to get beat. They’re worried about their win percentage. Sometimes you’ve got to run a horse, get a race into them, and get beat.

“... Sometimes I’ll run a horse and I’ll go, ‘That was a bonehead move. They need to take my plaque out of the Hall of Fame for 30 days.'"

Not likely. Nine years after his Hall of Fame induction, the 65-year-old Baffert has matched Lukas’ record with 14 Triple Crown race victories, won three Breeders’ Cup Classics and has earned a fourth Eclipse Award as the year’s outstanding trainer.

His 22 percent win rate ranks seventh among thoroughbred racing’s 50 winningest trainers. His career earnings of $276.2 million trail only the totals of Todd Pletcher, Steve Asmussen and Lukas.

Story continues below video.

CLOSE

Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify and trainer Bob Baffert were back on the track on Memorial Day training for the upcoming Belmont Stakes.
Scott Utterback, Louisville Courier Journal

If he completes a second Triple Crown on Saturday, Baffert will become only the second trainer to sweep the 3-year-old classics twice, joining James “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons (Gallant Fox in 1930 and Omaha in 1935).

“I’ve known a lot of trainers,” said California-based clocker Gary Young. “Some of them don’t get as good horses as Bob Baffert. But the way I’ve always measured them is when they point to the fence, a la Babe Ruth, how often does the ball go over the fence? There’s very rarely a percentage higher than Bob Baffert’s.”

That success is now largely self-perpetuating, with billionaires, Saudi princes and the China Horse Club all gravitating to the guy who wins the biggest races. Pegram, who paid a paltry $17,000 for Real Quiet as a yearling, says the main difference between Baffert's owners today as opposed to five years ago is "their pockets are a whole lot deeper."

Unchanged are Baffert’s abilities to pick up on things others overlook and to put colts in position to chase the Triple Crown. Of the 11 horses that have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness since 1997, five have been trained by Baffert. Justify figures to be Baffert's ninth winner of the Eclipse Award for outstanding 3-year-old male.

“He has earned the right to train the better horses,” said Romans, whose Keen Ice beat American Pharoah in the Travers Stakes. “He has about as good an eye as there is.”

Justin Zayat recalled standing with Baffert as he studied Pioneerof The Nile, runner-up in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

“I asked him, ‘Bob what are you staring at?’" Zayat said. "He said, ‘It’s the little things that are going to make the horse good.'"

In a business where the work day typically starts before dawn, Baffert’s tendency toward banker’s hours has been a source of resentment and envy. For years, he was a neatly pressed Mozart to all of the sweat-stained Salieris on the backside.

“When I came into this game,” Lukas told Nack in 2001, “I believed that to succeed — to be the top dog — you had to get up at 3:30 every morning, be at the barn by 4 and work harder than everybody else. And then, and then this guy comes along, showing up at 8 o’clock, or even 9 o’clock, and some days not at all. I don’t know how he does it. How do you figure it?”

The two training titans have since achieved détente and attained a mutual appreciation. When Baffert was inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame, he asked Lukas to make the presentation speech.

“He comes off as maybe, you know, being laid-back and not being as intense,” Lukas said of Baffert during a joint interview for the Horse Racing Radio Network last month. “(But) He is an excellent horseman. He knows what to do with the horse. When Justify won his first race, somebody said, ‘Well, he won’t have the seasoning and everything.’ I said, ‘Are you kidding me? He’s in the right barn, trust me.'"

Assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes has been with Baffert long enough to anticipate his instructions, and he has assumed enough responsibility to allow his boss to focus on “stocking the pond” with fresh talent. Baffert still prefers horses with ample hindquarters and he continues to work them more aggressively than do many of his peers, contrary to the sport’s recent trend toward kid-glove treatment.

“We don’t train scared,” Baffert said. “(Justify) has to go a mile and a half (in the Belmont). I want to make sure when I throw (jockey) Mike Smith on his back that he has a full tank of gas and his horse is ready. If he’s not ready, it doesn’t matter what Mike does. It’s up to us to give him his best chance.

“... They’re athletes. They have to train. You have to give them every opportunity. So when they go out there, they’re going to run hard. Fitness is so key to me. I want to make sure that (they’re) fit, so they don’t get tired when they hit the stretch. If they get in a battle, I want them to hit another gear.”

More than any trainer of his time, Baffert has been able to access additional gears and to lead his horses to a higher level. Behind those sunglasses is unusual insight.

“I don’t think he can walk on water,” Lukas says, “but I think he knows where the rocks are.”