Iraqiya, a secularist alliance headed by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, defeated current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc 91-89 in the initial counting of the votes, but has watched their lead evaporate and turn into what could be an enormous deficit with post election political maneuvering.

Iraqiya has already lost two MPs to an Iraqi court ruling, and scores of non-winning candidates have also been lost, setting up possible gains for State of Law, the Kurdistan Alliance, and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) in those districts.

Beyond that, JAC is looking to oust another nine MPs, mostly Iraqiya, at least one of their MPs is being indefinitely detained by the Maliki government, and the Maliki government has also promised to dramatically change the results of the Baghdad vote with a manual recount. When all is said and done Iraqiya would likely be a distant second if not a third place finisher in the parliament, despite having won the actual election.

Allawi condemned the “malicious disqualifications” and detentions today, and said that his speech would be the last effort to convince the election officials to act fairly, saying he would turn to the people afterwards.

The prospect of another new election is a scary one for many, as the security situation is rapidly getting out of hand. Perhaps the only thing worse, however, would be to not hold a new election and allow Maliki to simply steal the election after the fact.

After seven years of American occupation Iraq’s Sunni minority has had to constantly lower expectations about their say in the government, but many saw a ray of hope in Allawi’s victory, as the Shi’ite’s bloc was composed largely of Sunni MPs and has eschewed the sectarian rancor of the past. To have come so close to victory and then have it pulled away unceremoniously will likely be the final straw for many Sunnis, and will push them away from the political process and back into the insurgency.