Dissecting the Sectors: Retail and Homebuilding

By
Schaeffer's Investment ResearchOct 08, 2012 1:30 pm

Contrarian investors should continue to look for trade setups where outperforming retail stocks remain unnoticed by the crowd. Investors who are long housing should consider hedging to guard against possible short-term shocks.

Stay Connected

Sector: Homebuildng
Bullish

Outlook: We continue to see evidence that the housing sector is in recovery mode. Recent reports have shown housing starts at a 28-month peak, existing-home sales at a 27-month best, and home prices at a new five-year high. Plus, the Fed's plan to buy mortgage-backed securities as part of its QE3 endeavor is even more bullish for homebuilders. This past week, the average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 3.36%; such a low reading could be a fundamental tailwind for the group, as real-estate investments become a more attractive prospect. Despite all of this positive news, housing skeptics continue to compare current data to pre-bubble levels.

Many of the key stocks in the group remain heavily shorted, and Reuters recently reported that a popular hedge fund manager is betting against the sector. This downbeat backdrop is encouraging for contrarian investors, as it sets the stage for positive momentum on any good news. For example, KB Home (NYSE:KBH) spiked to a new 18-month high after its late-September earnings report, which topped lowball consensus estimates. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB) is currently trading above the $25.65 level -- marking a more than 50% year-to-date gain -- which is an encouraging sign, as this could have been a speed bump for the security. Meanwhile, XHB's 50-day put/call volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at 1.71, as puts bought to open have nearly doubled calls during this time frame. We saw a similar pop in this ratio in February, preceding a three-month rally in the ETF. This latest uptick could be the result of hedge funds using these puts to protect the long stock positions they've been accumulating. Hedging is a bargain on this ETF of late -- especially for short-term options -- as implied volatility is just off annual lows.

As a result, individual investors who are long housing may also want to consider hedging with the broader puts to guard against possible short-term shocks. In addition to KBH, some of our preferred names in the group include PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), Lennar (NYSE:LEN), and Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH), due to a combination of solid price action and lingering skepticism from Wall Street. Going forward, all of these technically strong names could enjoy additional upside spurred by short-covering support and/or analyst upgrades.