Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Electric Vehicles Are Coming

A Shell Oil Company report predicts the virtual extinction of internal
combustion engine motor vehicles by the year 2070.The slide towards alternative fueled vehicles, especially electric vehicles known as EVs, is in its infancy, but has begun.EVs could reach a critical mass by 2030.Within a generation, the poor and truck
drivers will drive a majority of the gasoline-powered engines remaining on our roads.Yes, one day even you will drive an EV or other alternative-fueled vehicle.

My new car, the Nissan LEAF, is the first mass market EV. It is a
technological marvel, offering immediate torque when pressing the "gas" pedal, initially surpassing that of a sports car.

At the higher end of the cost spectrum, Consumer Reports gave
the Tesla Model S (MSRP of $70,000 before a $7,500.00 tax credit) its highest performance rating ever--a 99 out of 100.In 2014, Tesla expects to release the Model X, an electric SUV
with three rows of seats and futuristic doors that open upward.

For now, a $7,500 Federal income tax credit--which can
reduce even the alternative minimum tax--is encouraging EV sales.Critics, some of whom rarely criticize tax breaks, contend that the EV market cannot
sustain itself without such "government subsidies."That is true in the short-run while
production ramps-up to achieve economies of scale to bring prices down to those of conventional automobiles.

In addition, the Internal Revenue Code allows oil
companies to immediately deduct the cost of preparing oil fields, instead of
capitalizing costs over time like many other capital investments.

Congress has not raised gasoline taxes from 1993 levels
and, each year, raids general revenues to pay for the nation's federally-funded
highways.

In contrast to the tens of billions spent subsidizing the
oil industry, $7,500 in tax credits for 200,000 Nissan Leafs (the number of
production vehicles that will trigger the phase-out of subsidies), will amount
to a mere $150 million.

Critics contend further that EVs merely offload their
emissions onto the power grid. That is true. However, Florida's coal power
generators are operating at day and night and releasing emissions whether or
not people are plugging-in their vehicles.Other Floridians are charging their EVs from a grid powered
partly by nuclear energy, which emits no greenhouse gases.

The LEAF gets the equivalent of 129 miles per gallon in
city driving. The Toyota Prius "only" gets 50.My old 2002 Lexus ES 300 only got 17.The environmental benefits of an EV are
blatantly obvious.

Speaking of the popular Prius, Toyota is making a deliberately slow
evolution to electric vehicles, offering only 11 miles of range on a Prius
plug-in. Toyota is wringing as much profit it can out of its investment in
gas-electric hybrid technology.I don't blame Toyota, which is selling as many Priuses each month as Nissan is selling LEAFs in a year.

However, Toyota risks getting left behind if it does not increase
the range on the Prius plug-in and offer it for sale nationwide. Currently,
Toyota sells it in only 14 states--and Florida isn't one of them.

In my judgment, the LEAF is more fun to drive than the
Prius, which has an annoying bar across the rear window and, oddly, no instrument panel through the steering wheel.

The most significant factor holding back widespread
adoption of electric cars is their range. For the 2013 model, Nissan increased
the range of the LEAF from 75 to, in my experience, 84 miles on an 80% charge in ECO mode. The Tesla Model S has a whopping 265 miles of range,
but needs a very large--and expensive--battery.

As battery technology improves, range will increase, and more people
will view electric vehicles as a viable option. At present, the LEAF is suitable for normal-range
commuting, such as my 10 mile round-trip commute to work. Nissan says most people drive 29 miles a day and the LEAF's range exceeds that by two and one-half times. My family will still need our gas-combustion
minivan for long trips and I will need it when I must attend a court hearing in
Jacksonville, Tampa, or Miami.Charging
stations are becoming more prevalent, but it is not practical to plan on 20-30
minute charging sessions every 75-80 miles.Once mass market EVs reliably hit 150 miles of range (two and one
half hours of highway driving), they will become quite popular.

While many wait for the technology to improve, I will
drive around Winter Park enjoying the equivalent of 129 miles to the gallon--without a tail pipe.

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About this Blog

I converted my old campaign website into this blog. After Commissioner Boyd appointed me to the Orange County Planning and Zoning Board, I decided to use this blog to discuss issues of importance affecting local government, and to expound on ideas for improving our built environment.

At community meeting after community meeting, citizens express outrage and opposition to new development proposals. Citizens appear before the Planning and Zoning Board, fearful that approval will enable another McDonald's with cartoon architecture or another strip shopping center with a massive, half-empty parking lot in front. Attitudes toward our built environment range mostly from dislike to indifference.

The 1960s-era suburban sprawl model causes traffic congestion, traps our children, the disabled, and elderly in subdivisions without transportation, and produces strip commercial development of poor aesthetic quality. We build sidewalks without shade trees despite Florida's oppresive summer heat. We build subdivisions with 60% or more of each house front devoted to a blank garage. Having turned our roadways into highways, our kids can no longer walk to school.

There is a better way. We are fortunate to have real-world models in Central Florida founded on principles of New (and traditional) Urbanism--Baldwin Park, Celebration, Avalon Park, and Winter Park's Park Avenue--for all to experience. However, our zoning codes make walkable communities illegal (without jumping through innmerable hoops).

I am hopeful this blog will help educate about the benefits of form-based zoning reforms enacted in 2010 in Miami and Denver and under consideration in other cities. The new codes, over the course of decades, can change development configurations from suburban sprawl to walkable urbanism. I compiled the links below to provide you with a multitude of sources. I am hopeful you will join me in advocating a better way.

Rick

"The Legality of Form-Based Zoning Codes," Journal of Land Use... (FL State Univ School of Law)

About Rick

I am a partner with Fishback Dominick in Winter Park, a law firm founded in 1935, where I practice in the areas of business and commercial litigation and, on a selective basis, land use law. I taught Land Use Law as an adjunct professor in the Master of Planning in Civic Urbanism program at Rollins College, in Winter Park, Florida for three years. I previously served as an Orange County Planning and Zoning Commissioner, appointed by District 1 Commissioner Scott Boyd. I reside in Winter Park with my wife, Gabriela, and four terrific kids.

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Below you'll find links to interesting blogs and websites relating to transportation, the law, and the built environment. I don't necessarily agree with all positions taken by the blogging authors, but generally find them well-informed and thoughtful.