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2011
Economic
Report
Oklahoma Employment Security Commission
Economic Research and Analysis
http://oesc.ok.gov 2011
ECONOMIC REPORT
Oklahoma Employment Security Commission
Richard McPherson, Executive Director
Economic Research and Analysis Division
Lynn Gray, Director & Chief Economist
Will Rogers Memorial Office Building
Labor Market Information Unit, 4th Floor N
P.O. Box 52003
Oklahoma City, OK 73152‐2003
Phone: (405) 557‐7172
Fax: (405) 525‐0139
Email: lmi1@oesc.state.ok.us
September 2011
Equal Opportunity Employer/Program
Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request for individuals with disabilities
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Real Gross Domestic Product and Quarterly Change.........................................................2
Industry Share of Oklahoma’s Economy.............................................................................3
Metropolitan Area Contribution to State Real GDP...........................................................4
U.S. and Oklahoma Unemployment Rate...........................................................................5
Oklahoma Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance......................................................6
U.S. and Oklahoma Nonfarm Payroll Employment............................................................7
Oklahoma Employment Change by Industry......................................................................8
U.S. and Oklahoma Manufacturing Employment.............................................................10
Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing).................................................................11
Oklahoma Active Rotary Rigs and Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price........................................13
Oklahoma Active Rotary Rigs and Natural Gas Wellhead Price.......................................15
U.S. Total Residential Building Permits.............................................................................16
Oklahoma Total Residential Building Permits...................................................................17
U.S. and Oklahoma Real Personal Income........................................................................18
Industry Contribution to Oklahoma Personal Income......................................................19
U.S. Adjusted Retail Sales.................................................................................................20
Oklahoma Total Adjusted Retail Sales..............................................................................21
Oklahoma Average Annual Wage by Major Occupational Group, 2010..........................22
Oklahoma Long‐Term Industry Employment Projections, 2008‐2018.............................23
September 2011 Page 1
‐10.0‐8.0‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.08.0 2001‐I 2001‐II 2001‐III 2001‐IV 2002‐I 2002‐II 2002‐III 2002‐IV 2003‐I 2003‐II 2003‐III 2003‐IV 2004‐I 2004‐II 2004‐III 2004‐IV 2005‐I 2005‐II 2005‐III 2005‐IV 2006‐I 2006‐II 2006‐III 2006‐IV 2007‐I 2007‐II 2007‐III 2007‐IV 2008‐I 2008‐II 2008‐III 2008‐IV 2009‐I 2009‐II 2009‐III 2009‐IV 2010‐I 2010‐II 2010‐III 2010‐IV2011‐I2011‐IIPercent10,00010,50011,00011,50012,00012,50013,00013,500$ BillionsPercent Change From Preceding Period Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained (2005) DollarsReal Gross Domestic Product and Quarterly ChangeSource: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States—is the broadest measure of economic activity. It is also the measure that is most indicative of whether the economy is in recession. In the post‐World War II period, there has been no recession in which GDP did not decrease in at least two quarters, (the exceptions being during the recessions of 1960‐61 and 2001.)
The U.S. economy grew much slower than previously thought in the 2nd quarter as business inventories and exports were less robust. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2011, (a downward revision of its prior estimate of 1.3 percent), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the 1st quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
The downward revisions to 2nd quarter growth came as businesses accumulated less stock than previously estimated. Business inventories increased $40.6 billion instead of $49.6 billion, cutting 0.23 percentage point from GDP growth during the quarter. Output was also curbed by exports, which grew at a 3.1 percent pace instead of 6.0 percent. Imports increased at a 1.9 percent rate rather than 1.3 percent, leaving a slightly wider trade deficit and trade barely contributed to GDP growth. Trade had previously been estimated to have added 0.58 percentage point to overall output.
The drag from business inventories was offset by consumer spending, which was revised up to a 0.4 percent rate from 0.1 percent. Business spending was revised to a 9.9 percent rate of increase from 6.3 percent as investment in nonresidential structures and equipment and software was stronger than previously estimated. September 2011 Page 2
Construction3.4%Information2.8%Financial Activities14.5%Professional & Business Services8.7%Leisure & Hospitality3.0%Other Services2.3%Government18.7%Trade, Transportation & Utilities16.7%Education & Health Care Services7.6%Manufacturing11.7%Mining9.6%Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting1.1%2010 Industry Share of Oklahoma's Economy(by percentage of Gross Domestic Product)Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic AnalysisOklahoma’s economy typically follows a similar trend to that of the nation. State GDP data lags behind national data and is only available annually. As a result, it is not a good indicator of current economic conditions and does not fully reflect the recent changes in Oklahoma’s economic climate. However, it is still valuable to understand the state’s growth trend compared to the nation and what industries are the largest contributors to Oklahoma’s economy.
According to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Oklahoma was among 48 states and the District of Columbia experiencing growth in real GDP in 2010. However, Oklahoma’s 2009 advance estimate was significantly revised downward primarily due to updated prices for natural gas.
The BEA’s advance estimate for 2009 state GDP showed Oklahoma’s real GDP had grown by 6.6 percent, leading the nation. The largest contributor to real GDP growth was mining, accounting for 7.23 percentage points of the total growth in real GDP. However, based on updated information, mining actually declined by 0.99 percent in 2009. That adjustment caused the state’s GDP to fall to ‐1.0 percent, ranking Oklahoma 15th in GDP growth among states in 2009.
Oklahoma registered a real GDP of $133.5 billion in 2010, a 1.0 percent gain from the revised $132.1 billion in 2009; U.S. real GDP grew at 2.6 percent during the same period. Retail trade contributed to real GDP growth in every state in 2010 and was the leading contributor in Oklahoma, accounting for 0.42 percent of total growth. Durable goods manufacturing was the second‐largest contributor to real GDP growth in Oklahoma accounting for 0.40 percentage point of the total growth. Government (0.25 percent) was the state’s third‐largest real GDP contributor with state and local government accounting for nearly 70 percent of total government real GDP. September 2011 Page 3
Oklahoma City, OK (MSA)40.5%Tulsa, OK (MSA)30.4%Lawton, OK (MSA)2.7%Remainder of Oklahoma25.0%Metropolitan Area Contribution to State Real Gross Domestic Product2009Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic AnalysisMetropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) are the county‐based definitions developed by the Office of Management and Budget for federal statistical purposes. A metropolitan area is defined as a geographic area consisting of a large population nucleus together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with the nucleus.
Nationally, metropolitan statistical areas represent approximately 90 percent of total GDP. In Oklahoma, the three MSAs of Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Lawton accounted for roughly 75 percent of total state GDP in 2009.
Real U.S. GDP by metropolitan area declined 2.4 percent in 2009 after declining 0.4 percent in 2008, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The economic decline was widespread as real GDP declined in 292 of 366 (or 80 percent) metropolitan statistical areas, led by national declines in durable‐goods manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services.
In contrast to most industries, natural resources and mining was a strong positive contributor to growth in 2009. Growth accelerated in 70 metropolitan areas, most notably in areas where natural resources and mining industries are concentrated such as Casper, WY and Oklahoma City, OK where this industry contributed more than ten percentage points to growth.
In terms of growth in real GDP, Oklahoma City MSA ranked 3rd out of the 366 U.S. metropolitan areas growing by 14.5 percent to $59.5 billion in 2009. Tulsa MSA ranked 9th growing by 7.6 percent to $44.8 billion followed by Lawton MSA ranked at 17th growing by 4.8 percent to $4.0 billion. September 2011 Page 4
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11PercentUSOklahomaU.S. and Oklahoma Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsThe unemployment rate measures the percentage of people who are without work and is calculated by dividing the estimated number of unemployed people in the state by the civilian labor force. The result expresses unemployment as a percentage of the labor force.
The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, as a result the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Nationally, the number of unemployed persons, at 14.0 million, was essentially unchanged in August, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The jobless rate has shown little change since April.
Oklahoma’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 5.5 percent in July, following a revised 5.4 percent rate in June. Oklahoma continued to hold the fifth‐lowest unemployment rate among all states in July. Nevada again reported the highest unemployment rate among the states at 12.9 percent in July, while North Dakota again had the lowest jobless rate at 3.3 percent.
In July, 72 out of 77 counties in Oklahoma saw their jobless rates fall. Latimer County once more had Oklahoma’s highest unemployment rate at 9.7 percent, while Roger Mills County again reported the state’s lowest rate of 2.7 percent. September 2011 Page 5
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Initial ClaimsInitial Claims4‐Week Moving AverageOklahoma Initial Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance (Not Seasonally Adjusted)Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training AdministrationInitial unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance benefits for the first time. This particular variable is useful because it gives a timely assessment of the overall economy. Initial claims are a leading indicator in that they point to changes in labor market conditions. An increasing trend signals that layoffs are occurring. Conversely, a decreasing trend suggests an improving labor market. The four‐week moving average of initial claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Initial jobless claims are trending sideways pointing to no significant improvement in the labor market. Initial claims fell 12,000 in the August 27th week to 409,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). However, that improvement was partially offset by a 4,000 upward revision to the prior week to 421,000 which is the highest level since mid July, The four‐week average, at 410,250, is up for the second week in a row and compares against 408,250 at month end July.
Continuing claims fell a slight 18,000 in data for the August 20th week to 3.735 million with the four‐week average, down 3,000 to 3.726 million, trending flat for the last two months.
In Oklahoma, initial claims continue to trend down. Oklahoma’s initial claims fell by 123 from 2,601 to 2,478 for the file week ending on August 20th. During the same period, the initial claims four‐week moving average dropped by 48 from 2,633 to 2,585. Continued claims dropped by 36 and the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.8 percent in the August 20th file week.
September 2011 Page 6
U.S. (01/01=100)
Oklahoma (01/01=100)
Nonfarm payroll employment measures the number of jobs in the state. The number of jobs and the industries that create those jobs are important indicators of a state’s economic health. Payroll employment is one of the most current and reliable indicators of economic conditions and recessionary trends.
The U.S. economy failed to add jobs for the first time in almost a year in August. Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged in August—the worst result since a small decline in September 2010—as the government sector continued to shed jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The private sector added only 17,000 jobs. Notably, this was also the first time since February 1945 that the government has reported a net job change of zero.
Employment changed little in most major industries in August. About 45,000 telecom jobs were off company payrolls because of a strike at Verizon Communications Inc., contributing to the worst private‐sector performance since February 2010. But payrolls were weak even without the one‐off Verizon impact.
Statewide, nonfarm employment continued to grow in July adding 4,500 jobs for a 0.3 percent increase over June. Six of Oklahoma’s 11 statewide supersectors reported job gains in July, with educational & health services (+2,600 jobs), and professional & business services (+2,200 jobs), leading the way. The largest monthly losses came from manufacturing (‐1,600 jobs), and leisure & hospitality (‐1,300 jobs), with smaller losses reported in trade, transportation & utilities; and other services.
Over the year, nonfarm employment was up 34,000 jobs or 2.2 percent. Manufacturing led the eight growing supersectors, adding 9,400 jobs for a 7.6 percent gain. Government posted the largest over‐the‐year loss, shedding 6,100 jobs or ‐1.8 percent. September 2011 Page 7
2,6001,300‐4,800‐6,200‐2,000‐100‐200‐1,500‐1,900‐1,700‐900‐8,000‐6,000‐4,000‐2,00002,0004,000GovernmentOther ServicesLeisure and HospitalityEducation and Health ServicesProfessional and Business ServicesFinancial ActivitiesInformationTrade, Transportation, and UtilitiesManufacturingConstructionMining and LoggingOklahoma Employment Change by Industry2009 ‐ 2010Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES), U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment growth by industry identifies the types of jobs being created in the state. Conversely, industries with a decreasing employment trend indicate those which are becoming less important to the state’s economy. There may also be industries which behave more cyclically, growing during expansion and decreasing in times of economic slowdown or contraction. These changes are crucial in that they help to recognize the types of jobs being lost by individuals. Anticipating what will happen in recovery helps identify whether those jobs will return or what types of new jobs will be created. Consequently, key information for planning reemployment, retraining, and other workforce and economic development programs is contained within these data.
Job losses continued in 2010 albeit at a much slower pace than 2009 which, in terms of number of jobs lost (‐50,800), was the worst year since record keeping began in 1939. Oklahoma total nonfarm employment shed 15,500 jobs in 2010 contracting 1.0 percent.
Job losses in 2010 were fairly widespread among most industry groups with education and health services (+2,600) and professional and business services (+1,300) being the only sectors experiencing job growth in 2010. Nearly all employment growth in education and health services came from the ambulatory health care service and hospital sectors. Professional and business services growth was led by employment services.
As in 2009, manufacturing suffered the largest employment losses in 2010 dropping 6,200 jobs after losing 20,500 in 2009. Durable goods manufacturing lost 5,400 jobs while non‐durable goods manufacturing declined by 900 jobs. The broad trade, transportation and utilities sector followed with an over‐the‐year loss of 4,800 jobs. Leading the losses in this sector were truck transportation, retail trade and wholesale September 2011 Page 8
trade. Construction lost 2,000 jobs in 2010 with the bulk of the job losses being in specialty trade contractors.
The information sector employment fell by 1,900 jobs in 2010 with most of the job losses occurring in telecommunications and reflecting further consolidation in that industry. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 1,700 with the majority of job losses in accommodation and food services. Other services employment dropped by 900 jobs, government lost 200 jobs and mining and logging edged down 100 jobs.
September 2011 Page 9
US (01/01=100)
Oklahoma (01/01=100)
Manufacturing and production are still important parts of both the U.S. and Oklahoma economies and have been seriously adversely affected by the recession. In Oklahoma, manufacturing accounts for the largest share of private output in the state and one of the largest shares of employment. In addition, many manufacturing jobs are among the highest paying jobs in the state.
At one time, manufacturing made up 38 percent of the nation’s employment. However, manufacturing employment in the United States has been declining since 1979, as productivity, technology gains, and the transfer of manufacturing to locations outside the United States have reduced the demand for traditional manufacturing employment. Furthermore, current shifts in the industry away from heavy sectors, such as automobiles and basic chemicals toward higher‐tech products like computer chips are also accelerating manufacturing’s long‐term shrinkage.
U.S. manufacturing employment was essentially unchanged in August (‐3,000), following a gain of 36,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For the past four months, manufacturing has added an average of 14,000 jobs per month, compared with an average of 35,000 jobs per month in the first four months of the year.
For the first time since August 2010, Oklahoma’s manufacturing employment saw job losses, shedding 1,600 jobs (‐1.2 percent), in July. Prior to July’s report, Oklahoma manufacturers had added employment for 10 consecutive months. July’s manufacturing job losses were primarily in durable goods. Over the year, manufacturing has added 9,400 jobs for a 7.6 percent annual growth rate. September 2011 Page 10
20.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.0Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11IndexUSMid‐AmericaOklahomaPurchasing Managers' Index (Manufacturing)Sources: ISM Manufacturing Report On Business® and Business Conditions Index for Mid‐America, Creighton University Economists consider the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) a key economic indicator. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The ISM manufacturing index is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession. For the region, since 1994, the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group at Creighton University has conducted a monthly survey of supply managers in nine states (including Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota), to produce leading economic indicators for the Mid‐America economy using the same methodology as the national survey by the ISM.
Activity in the manufacturing sector grew slightly in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI that nonetheless suggests the economy isn’t currently in a recession. The ISM manufacturing index slowed to 50.6 percent from 50.9 percent in July, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate.
The Production Index registered 48.6 percent, indicating contraction for the first time since May of 2009, when it registered 45 percent. The New Orders and Backlog of Orders Indexes edged up slightly from July, but both indexes are indicating contraction in August at slower rates than in July. The rate of increase for input prices slowed for the fourth consecutive month, dropping another 3.5 percentage points in August to 55.5 percent which may give manufacturers some breathing room in their production and hiring plans. September 2011 Page 11
For the fifth time in the past six months, the Business Conditions Index for the nine‐state Mid‐America region fell. The index slumped to 52.0 from 54.1 in July, according to the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group. While this is the 21st consecutive month that the index has been above growth neutral 50.0, the reading for August was the lowest recorded since December 2009 and clearly indicates that regional growth is weakening with an increasing likelihood of a recession.
Oklahoma’s Business Conditions Index from a monthly survey of supply managers in the state declined to a still healthy 56.8 from July’s 61.9. Components for August’s index were new orders at 56.7, production or sales at 51.4, delivery lead time at 69.2, inventories at 44.9, and employment at 61.7.
September 2011 Page 12
050100150200250Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Active Rigs$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160Price Per BBLActive Rotary RigsCushing OK WTI SpotOklahoma Active Rotary Rigs & Cushing, OK WTI Spot PriceSOURCES: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes Rig CountsThe Baker Hughes rig count is an important indicator for the energy industry and Oklahoma. Rig counts generally rise following increased oil and gas company development and exploration spending, which is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas (among other factors). Therefore, the rig count reflects the strength and stability of energy prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI‐Cushing) is a light crude oil produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing a number of other crude streams and which is traded in the domestic spot market at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Oklahoma produces a substantial amount of oil, with annual production typically accounting for more than 3 percent of total U.S. production in recent years. Crude oil wells and gathering pipeline systems are concentrated in central Oklahoma. Two of the 100 largest oil fields in the United States are found in Oklahoma.
The city of Cushing, in central Oklahoma, is a major crude oil trading hub connecting Gulf Coast producers to Midwest refining markets. In addition to Oklahoma crude oil, the Cushing hub receives supply from several major pipelines that originate in Texas. Traditionally, the Cushing Hub has pushed Gulf Coast and Mid‐Continent crude oil supply north to Midwest refining markets. For this reason, Cushing is the designated delivery point for NYMEX crude oil futures contracts. Crude oil supplies from Cushing that are not delivered to the Midwest are fed to Oklahoma’s five refineries, which have a combined distillation capacity of over 500 thousand barrels per day—roughly 3 percent of the total U.S. refining capacity. September 2011 Page 13
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil will rise from $100 per barrel in 2011 to $107 per barrel in 2012 as global spare production capacity and inventories continue to decline. This forecast assumes that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent next year, while world oil‐consumption‐weighted real GDP grows by 3.4 and 4.1 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively. However, these assumptions do not fully reflect recent economic and financial developments that point towards a weaker economic outlook and also contributed to a sharp drop in world crude oil prices during the first week of August. There is a significant downside risk for oil prices if economic and financial market concerns become more widespread or take hold.
After peaking in April, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $86.56 per barrel in August, falling from July’s $97.30 per barrel average.
Oklahoma’s rotary rig activity increased to 192 in July adding 16 rigs from June’s count of 169. Over the year, Oklahoma’s active rotary rig count has grown by 59 rigs.
September 2011 Page 14
050100150200250Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Active Rigs$0$2$4$6$8$10$12Price Per MCFActive Rotary RigsNatural Gas Wellhead PriceOklahoma Active Rotary Rigs & Natural Gas Wellhead PriceSources: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes Rig Counts
Oklahoma is one of the top natural gas producers in the United States with production typically accounting for almost one‐tenth of the U.S. total. More than a dozen of the 100 largest natural gas fields in the country are found in Oklahoma and proven reserves of conventional natural gas have been increasing in recent years.
Most natural gas in Oklahoma is consumed by the electricity generation and industrial sectors. About three‐fifths of Oklahoma households use natural gas as their primary energy source for home heating. Nevertheless, only about one‐third of Oklahoma’s natural gas output is consumed within the state. The remaining supply is sent via pipeline to neighboring states, the majority to Kansas, including the natural gas trading hubs in Texas and Kansas.
Extremely hot weather settled on much of the nation in July, with U.S. population‐weighted cooling degree‐days 27 percent higher than the 30‐year normal and 8 percent higher than last year, contributing to an increase in natural gas consumption for electricity generation compared with July 2010. Nevertheless, the estimated 246 billion cubic feet (Bcf) increase in natural gas working inventories during July 2011 was 21 Bcf higher than during the same month last year.
Natural gas wellhead prices had seen monthly improvement since March 2011. August estimated natural gas wellhead prices fell slightly averaging $4.20 per Mcf, down from July’s $4.27 price.
The U.S. natural gas rotary rig count for the week ending September 2, as reported by Baker Hughes, fell by 3 to 895 active units. Meanwhile, oil‐directed rigs dropped by 5 to 1,064 units, expanding the diversion between the two drilling strategies. September 2011 Page 15
050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11PermitsBuilding Permits3‐Month Moving AverageU.S. Total Residential Building Permits, 2001‐2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentThis indicator measures the number of permits issued for housing units (single family home or apartment) authorized for construction. Because permits precede construction, they are considered a leading indicator for the residential construction industry and the overall economy. Most of the construction begins the same month the permit is issued. The remainder usually begins construction during the next three months. Consequently, we have depicted total permits relative to a three‐month moving average.
Housing contributes to GDP in two basic ways: through private residential investment and consumption spending on housing services. According to the National Home Builders Association, residential investment has historically averaged roughly 5 percent of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12 and 13 percent, for a combined 17 to 18 percent of GDP.
Homebuilders remain cautious as housing permits slipped 3.2 percent in July, following a 1.3 percent rise in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 597,000 or 3.8 percent above the July 2010 estimate of 575,000.
Over the past several years, U.S. housing starts have dropped to around 400,000 units at an annualized rate, the lowest level in decades. This is largely due to the huge housing overhang that continues to weigh on new construction and depress housing prices. According to a recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a simple model of housing supply that takes into account residential mortgage foreclosures suggests that housing starts will return to their long‐run average by about 2014 if house prices first stabilize and then begin appreciating, and the bloated inventory of foreclosed properties declines. September 2011 Page 16
05001,0001,5002,0002,500Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11PermitsBuilding Permits3‐Month Moving AverageOklahoma Total Residential Building Permits, 2001‐2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development Oklahoma total residential permitting took a significant drop in July falling 37.6 percent from June. The sharp slide in July permitting was largely due to the multi‐family component which fell 96.8 percent from June. Single family permitting declined 10.3 percent from June. Year to date, total residential permitting during the first seven months of 2011 was down 2.0 percent from the same period in 2010. Year‐to‐date single family permitting was down 11.4 percent from 2010 while multi‐family permitting was up 34.0 percent compared to 2010.
September 2011 Page 17
U.S. (2000.1=100)
Oklahoma (2000.1=100)
Personal income is a broad measure of economic activity and one for which relatively current data are available. Personal income includes earnings; property income such as dividends, interest, and rent; and transfer payments, such as retirement, unemployment insurance, and various other benefit payments. It is a measure of income that is available for spending and is seen as an indicator of the economic well‐being of the residents of a state. Earnings and wages make up the largest portion of personal income.
To show the hugely different levels of total personal income for the U.S. and Oklahoma on the same chart, these data have been converted to index numbers. This chart shows a comparison of Oklahoma and U.S. growth in real personal income with 1st quarter 2001 as the base year.
In July, consumers made a nice comeback in terms of income growth and spending. Personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $32.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In June, personal income increased $27.7 billion, or 0.2 percent and DPI increased $22.6 billion, or 0.2 percent.
Consumer spending rebounded a sharp 0.8 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in June. By category, durables jumped 1.9 percent after declining 1.1 percent in June. Noticeably, motor vehicle sales are up as the supply constraint related parts shortages from Japan is easing. Nondurables increased 0.7 percent, following a 0.5 percent decrease in June. Services rose 0.7 percent after nudging up 0.1 percent in June. The latest numbers on spending should ease concern about a double‐dip recession. September 2011 Page 18
Construction4.5%Manufacturing10.2%Forestry, fishing, and related activities0.1%Educational and health services11.6%Information1.8%Professional and business services113%Financial activities5.5%Mining6.0%Trade, transportation and utilities15.6%Other services, except public administration3.0%Leisure and hospitality3.5%Government and government enterprises26.7%Oklahoma Industry Contribution to EarningsFirst Quarter 2011Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
State personal income growth accelerated to 1.8 percent in the 1st quarter of 2011, from 0.8 percent in the 4th quarter of 2010, according to estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased in all states, with growth ranging from 0.7 percent in Iowa to 6.9 percent in North Dakota. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased to 0.9 percent in the 1st quarter from 0.4 percent in the 4th quarter of 2010.
A two‐percentage point reduction in the personal contribution rate for social security, one of the provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, accounted for most of the acceleration in 1st quarter personal income growth in most states.
Mining and durable‐goods manufacturing were the best performing industries in the 1st quarter. Overall, mining earnings grew 5.5 percent and durable goods earnings grew 2.8 percent. Earnings in all other industries combined grew only 0.8 percent. The mining industry (which includes oil and gas extraction) contributed more than any other nonfarm industry to personal income growth in six of the seven fastest growing states (North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas, Montana, Oklahoma, and Alaska).
Oklahoma’s personal income grew by 2.5 percent in 1st quarter 2011, ranking it the 5th fastest growth rate among states. Total earnings grew by 1.36 percent with the largest contributors to earnings growth being mining (0.28 percent) and durable goods manufacturing (0.25 percent). Other services; construction; real estate and rental & leasing; and professional, scientific, and technical services earnings provided the largest drags to 1st quarter earnings growth.
September 2011 Page 19
‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.08.0Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Percent $200,000$220,000$240,000$260,000$280,000$300,000$320,000$340,000$360,000$380,000$400,000Retail Sales (000)% Change from previous monthRetail & food services salesU.S. Retail Sales (Adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading‐day differences)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food ServicesConsumer spending accounts for two‐thirds of the U.S. economy and is therefore essential to Oklahoma’s economy. Retail sales account for around one‐half of consumer spending and economic recovery calls for consumption growth
Retail sales strengthened in July, led by a surge in auto sales and with support from most other components. U.S. retail and food service sales for July reached $390.4 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. June retail sales were up a revised 0.3 percent which had been originally estimated a 0.1% gain. Retail sales on a year‐ago basis in July improved to 8.5 percent from 8.3 percent in June. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 8.6 percent on a year‐over‐year basis, compared to 8.2 percent the prior month.
Auto sales continued to rebound, rising 0.4 percent, following a 0.7 percent jump in June. While prices for gas easing—a gallon averaged $3.65 in July—many Americans are still spending heavily on fuel, while also opening their wallets for other purchases. Gasoline station sales rebounded 1.6 percent after dropping 1.7 percent.
Outside of autos and gasoline, sales were mostly positive. Leaders were miscellaneous store retailers, up 2.4 percent; electronics & appliance stores, up 1.4 percent; and nonstore retailers, up 0.9 percent. Also seeing increases were furniture & home furnishing, food & beverage, health & personal care, and clothing & accessories. Leading the downside were sporting goods, hobby & book stores, down 1.5 percent, and building materials & garden equipment, down 0.4 percent. Food services & drinking places eased 0.1 percent while general merchandise sales were flat. September 2011 Page 20
1,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,000Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Thousands (000)Retail Trade6‐Month Moving AverageOklahoma Total Adjusted Retail TradeSource: Center for Economic & Management Research, University of Oklahoma
The Center for Economic and Management Research (CEMR) Price College of Business, at the University of Oklahoma produces the Oklahoma Monthly Retail Sales Series containing monthly estimates of retail sales for Oklahoma, the Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Lawton Metropolitan Statistical Areas and 48 selected cities in Oklahoma. The series is based on sales tax collection data provided by the Business Tax Division, Oklahoma Tax Commission (OTC). In order to take out monthly volatility, we have used a six‐month moving average.
After falling in February, Oklahoma retail sales picked up in March. Total adjusted retail trade saw a $100.8 million or 4.9 percent improvement from February and was 8.1 percent over March 2010, according to OU’s Center for Economic and Management Research.
Monthly gains in March were led by non‐durable goods sales advancing 5.2 percent from February. Estimated gasoline sales saw the largest increase rising 28.6 percent following a 25.7 percent drop in February. Other gains in non‐durable goods sales were seen in miscellaneous non‐durable goods (13.9 percent), apparel (12.8percent), and liquor (0.4 percent). Losses in other non‐durable goods categories included eating & drinking sales (‐13.4 percent), food sales (‐8.1 percent), general merchandise sales (‐4.8 percent), and drugs sales (0.8 percent).
Durable goods sales declined 1.2 percent from February with losses seen in lumber & hardware (‐7.4 percent), auto accessories & repair (‐1.0 percent). Gains were seen in other durable goods categories with electronics & music stores (3.2 percent), miscellaneous durables (3.0 percent), used merchandise (2.8 percent), and furniture (0.8 percent
September 2011 Page 21
OKLAHOMA AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, 2010
Occupation
Average Annual Wage
Percent
U.S.
Code Occupation Title Oklahoma U.S. Average
September 2011 Page 22
00‐0000
All Occupations
$37,372
$44,410
84.15%
11‐0000
Management Occupations
$80,630
$105,440
76.47%
13‐0000
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
$54,459
$67,690
80.45%
15‐0000
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
$59,730
$77,230
77.34%
17‐0000
Architecture and Engineering Occupations
$75,344
$75,550
99.73%
19‐0000
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
$64,321
$66,390
96.88%
21‐0000
Community and Social Services Occupations
$37,044
$43,180
85.79%
23‐0000
Legal Occupations
$74,429
$96,940
76.78%
25‐0000
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
$39,740
$50,440
78.79%
27‐0000
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations
$37,943
$52,290
72.56%
29‐0000
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
$59,810
$71,280
83.91%
31‐0000
Healthcare Support Occupations
$24,116
$26,920
89.58%
33‐0000
Protective Service Occupations
$35,800
$42,490
84.26%
35‐0000
Food Preparation and Serving‐Related Occupations
$19,100
$21,240
89.92%
37‐0000
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations
$21,634
$25,300
85.51%
39‐0000
Personal Care and Service Occupations
$21,737
$24,590
88.40%
41‐0000
Sales and Related Occupations
$29,700
$36,790
80.73%
43‐0000
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
$29,067
$33,470
86.84%
45‐0000
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
$26,493
$24,330
108.89%
47‐0000
Construction and Extraction Occupations
$36,223
$43,870
82.57%
49‐0000
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
$39,205
$42,810
91.58%
51‐0000
Production Occupations
$32,635
$33,770
96.64%
53‐0000
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
$30,547
$32,660
93.53%
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, 2010.OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 2 3
Total Employment1
1,750,130
1,928,790
178,670
10.21%
Goods‐Producing
314,370
337,960
23,590
7.50%
Natural Resources and Mining
88,290
92,850
4,560
5.17%
Construction
75,560
91,630
16,070
21.26%
Manufacturing
150,520
153,480
2,960
1.97%
Services‐Providing
1,319,060
1,465,160
146,100
11.08%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
289,740
308,830
19,090
6.59%
Information
28,960
27,220
‐1,740
‐6.02%
Financial Activities
83,110
86,650
3,540
4.25%
Professional and Business Services
184,250
217,370
33,120
17.97%
Education and Health Services
356,210
408,040
51,830
14.55%
Leisure and Hospitality
143,770
160,990
17,230
11.98%
Other Services (Except Government)
65,740
70,530
4,800
7.30%
Government
167,280
185,530
18,250
10.91%
Total Self‐Employed and Unpaid Family Workers2
116,690
125,680
8,980
7.70%
Self‐Employed Workers
114,790
123,670
8,880
7.73%
Unpaid Family Workers
1,900
2,010
110
5.74%
Agriculture3
36,200
36,180
‐20
‐0.06%
Mining
52,090
56,680
4,580
8.80%
Oil and Gas Extraction
19,810
20,270
460
2.33%
Mining (except Oil and Gas)
2,360
2,580
220
9.33%
Support Activities for Mining
29,930
33,830
3,900
13.04%
Utilities
10,870
11,540
670
6.14%
Construction
75,560
91,630
16,070
21.26%
Construction of Buildings
16,080
16,370
290
1.79%
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
12,490
13,600
1,100
8.82%
Specialty Trade Contractors
46,990
61,670
14,680
31.23%
Manufacturing
150,520
153,480
2,960
1.97%
Food Manufacturing
19,650
19,710
70
0.35%
Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing
2,510
2,980
470
18.88%
Textile Mills
160
180
20
9.20%OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 24
Textile Product Mills
720
580
‐150
‐20.58%
Apparel Manufacturing
1,050
780
‐270
‐25.69%
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
290
260
‐30
‐9.69%
Wood Product Manufacturing
3,140
2,950
‐190
‐6.18%
Paper Manufacturing
2,950
2,270
‐680
‐23.08%
Printing and Related Support Activities
3,600
2,950
‐650
‐18.03%
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
2,470
2,860
390
15.84%
Chemical Manufacturing
2,870
2,720
‐150
‐5.16%
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing
10,560
9,910
‐650
‐6.16%
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
8,480
8,590
100
1.23%
Primary Metal Manufacturing
4,930
5,660
720
14.68%
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
24,090
24,620
520
2.18%
Machinery Manufacturing
30,900
35,610
4,710
15.24%
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
6,330
6,630
300
4.76%
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing
3,170
3,020
‐150
‐4.86%
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
15,670
14,250
‐1,430
‐9.09%
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
2,540
2,600
60
2.36%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
4,430
4,370
‐70
‐1.47%
Wholesale Trade
59,780
62,300
2,530
4.23%
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
30,070
32,820
2,750
9.16%
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
23,640
23,810
170
0.70%
Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers
6,070
5,670
‐390
‐6.49%
Retail Trade
173,280
186,210
12,930
7.46%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
23,530
22,260
‐1,270
‐5.39%
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
5,150
5,960
810
15.78%
Electronics and Appliance Stores
4,530
3,730
‐800
‐17.67%
Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
15,280
19,920
4,640
30.36%
Food and Beverage Stores
21,630
18,890
‐2,740
‐12.67%
Health and Personal Care Stores
11,190
14,620
3,430
30.62%
Gasoline Stations
13,860
15,300
1,440
10.36%
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
11,710
12,470
760
6.53%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
6,940
7,480
540
7.84%
General Merchandise Stores
46,300
52,790
6,490
14.02%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
11,140
11,190
50
0.46%
Nonstore Retailers
2,020
1,590
‐430
‐21.22%OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 25
Transportation and Warehousing
45,810
48,780
2,970
6.48%
Air Transportation
7,890
6,420
‐1,470
‐18.62%
Rail Transportation
1,840
1,840
0
0.00%
Truck Transportation
19,030
21,710
2,690
14.12%
Transit and Ground Passenger Transport
*
*
*
*
Pipeline Transportation
1,880
2,030
160
8.27%
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
*
*
*
*
Support Activities for Transportation
6,080
7,360
1,290
21.22%
Couriers and Messengers
4,270
4,330
60
1.45%
Warehousing and Storage
3,970
4,200
240
5.92%
Information
28,960
27,220
‐1,740
‐6.02%
Publishing Industries
7,260
6,310
‐950
‐13.09%
Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries
1,960
2,000
40
2.10%
Broadcasting (except Internet)
3,640
3,110
‐530
‐14.49%
Telecommunications
13,900
13,610
‐290
‐2.08%
Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services
1,570
1,430
‐140
‐8.88%
Other Information Services
640
760
120
19.06%
Finance and Insurance
59,470
61,040
1,570
2.64%
Monetary Authorities ‐ Central Bank
*
*
*
*
Credit Intermediation and Related Activities
32,180
33,070
890
2.77%
Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
4,710
5,740
1,030
21.75%
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
22,210
21,900
‐310
‐1.40%
Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles
*
*
*
*
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
23,650
25,610
1,970
8.31%
Real Estate
11,570
12,720
1,150
9.92%
Rental and Leasing Services
11,600
12,400
810
6.97%
Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)
480
490
10
1.87%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
65,010
82,030
17,020
26.18%
Management of Companies and Enterprises
13,790
14,820
1,030
7.46%
OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 26
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
105,450
120,520
15,070
14.29%
Administrative and Support Services
102,350
117,330
14,980
14.64%
Waste Management and Remediation Service
3,100
3,190
80
2.67%
Educational Services
162,550
175,030
12,480
7.68%
Health Care and Social Assistance
193,660
233,010
39,350
20.32%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
65,690
82,120
16,440
25.02%
Hospitals
68,170
86,820
18,640
27.35%
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
34,370
33,260
‐1,110
‐3.24%
Social Assistance
25,430
30,810
5,380
21.16%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
18,670
21,360
2,690
14.39%
Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries
2,400
2,690
300
12.39%
Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution
720
790
70
9.70%
Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
15,560
17,880
2,320
14.91%
Accommodation and Food Services
125,090
139,630
14,540
11.62%
Accommodation
11,630
12,930
1,300
11.13%
Food Services and Drinking Places
113,460
126,700
13,240
11.67%
Other Services (Except Government)
65,740
70,530
4,800
7.30%
Repair and Maintenance
14,230
16,770
2,540
17.85%
Personal and Laundry Services
13,580
15,850
2,260
16.67%
Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations
35,970
35,920
‐40
‐0.12%
Private Households
1,960
1,990
40
1.84%
Government
167,280
185,530
18,250
10.91%
Federal Government
45,290
45,870
580
1.29%
Federal Government, Excluding Postal Service
37,020
37,940
920
2.49%
Postal Service
8,270
7,940
‐340
‐4.06%
State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals
38,870
41,770
2,900
7.46%
Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals
83,120
97,890
14,760
17.76%
SOURCE: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, 2008‐2018 Industry Projections, 2010.
1 Total employment includes covered and non‐covered employment, agricultural employment and self‐employed and unpaid family workers. Covered employment data are from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program from Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Non‐covered employment data are average annual data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics program from Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Employment estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10. Percent change is based on unrounded data. 2 Self‐employed & unpaid family workers data are produced from the projection matrix system based on Oklahoma OES (Occupational Employment Statistics) survey and BLS Current Population Survey. The estimates of the number of self‐employed in the base year are larger this projections round than they were in previous rounds because the file supplied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics now includes estimates of all self‐employed jobs (jobs held by people primarily self‐employed plus jobs held by people secondarily self‐employed). 3 Employment data for Agriculture are from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey 2008 and QCEW program. * Employment data is withheld to maintain data confidentiality.
September 2011 Page 27

2011
Economic
Report
Oklahoma Employment Security Commission
Economic Research and Analysis
http://oesc.ok.gov 2011
ECONOMIC REPORT
Oklahoma Employment Security Commission
Richard McPherson, Executive Director
Economic Research and Analysis Division
Lynn Gray, Director & Chief Economist
Will Rogers Memorial Office Building
Labor Market Information Unit, 4th Floor N
P.O. Box 52003
Oklahoma City, OK 73152‐2003
Phone: (405) 557‐7172
Fax: (405) 525‐0139
Email: lmi1@oesc.state.ok.us
September 2011
Equal Opportunity Employer/Program
Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request for individuals with disabilities
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Real Gross Domestic Product and Quarterly Change.........................................................2
Industry Share of Oklahoma’s Economy.............................................................................3
Metropolitan Area Contribution to State Real GDP...........................................................4
U.S. and Oklahoma Unemployment Rate...........................................................................5
Oklahoma Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance......................................................6
U.S. and Oklahoma Nonfarm Payroll Employment............................................................7
Oklahoma Employment Change by Industry......................................................................8
U.S. and Oklahoma Manufacturing Employment.............................................................10
Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing).................................................................11
Oklahoma Active Rotary Rigs and Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price........................................13
Oklahoma Active Rotary Rigs and Natural Gas Wellhead Price.......................................15
U.S. Total Residential Building Permits.............................................................................16
Oklahoma Total Residential Building Permits...................................................................17
U.S. and Oklahoma Real Personal Income........................................................................18
Industry Contribution to Oklahoma Personal Income......................................................19
U.S. Adjusted Retail Sales.................................................................................................20
Oklahoma Total Adjusted Retail Sales..............................................................................21
Oklahoma Average Annual Wage by Major Occupational Group, 2010..........................22
Oklahoma Long‐Term Industry Employment Projections, 2008‐2018.............................23
September 2011 Page 1
‐10.0‐8.0‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.08.0 2001‐I 2001‐II 2001‐III 2001‐IV 2002‐I 2002‐II 2002‐III 2002‐IV 2003‐I 2003‐II 2003‐III 2003‐IV 2004‐I 2004‐II 2004‐III 2004‐IV 2005‐I 2005‐II 2005‐III 2005‐IV 2006‐I 2006‐II 2006‐III 2006‐IV 2007‐I 2007‐II 2007‐III 2007‐IV 2008‐I 2008‐II 2008‐III 2008‐IV 2009‐I 2009‐II 2009‐III 2009‐IV 2010‐I 2010‐II 2010‐III 2010‐IV2011‐I2011‐IIPercent10,00010,50011,00011,50012,00012,50013,00013,500$ BillionsPercent Change From Preceding Period Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained (2005) DollarsReal Gross Domestic Product and Quarterly ChangeSource: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States—is the broadest measure of economic activity. It is also the measure that is most indicative of whether the economy is in recession. In the post‐World War II period, there has been no recession in which GDP did not decrease in at least two quarters, (the exceptions being during the recessions of 1960‐61 and 2001.)
The U.S. economy grew much slower than previously thought in the 2nd quarter as business inventories and exports were less robust. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2011, (a downward revision of its prior estimate of 1.3 percent), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the 1st quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
The downward revisions to 2nd quarter growth came as businesses accumulated less stock than previously estimated. Business inventories increased $40.6 billion instead of $49.6 billion, cutting 0.23 percentage point from GDP growth during the quarter. Output was also curbed by exports, which grew at a 3.1 percent pace instead of 6.0 percent. Imports increased at a 1.9 percent rate rather than 1.3 percent, leaving a slightly wider trade deficit and trade barely contributed to GDP growth. Trade had previously been estimated to have added 0.58 percentage point to overall output.
The drag from business inventories was offset by consumer spending, which was revised up to a 0.4 percent rate from 0.1 percent. Business spending was revised to a 9.9 percent rate of increase from 6.3 percent as investment in nonresidential structures and equipment and software was stronger than previously estimated. September 2011 Page 2
Construction3.4%Information2.8%Financial Activities14.5%Professional & Business Services8.7%Leisure & Hospitality3.0%Other Services2.3%Government18.7%Trade, Transportation & Utilities16.7%Education & Health Care Services7.6%Manufacturing11.7%Mining9.6%Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting1.1%2010 Industry Share of Oklahoma's Economy(by percentage of Gross Domestic Product)Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic AnalysisOklahoma’s economy typically follows a similar trend to that of the nation. State GDP data lags behind national data and is only available annually. As a result, it is not a good indicator of current economic conditions and does not fully reflect the recent changes in Oklahoma’s economic climate. However, it is still valuable to understand the state’s growth trend compared to the nation and what industries are the largest contributors to Oklahoma’s economy.
According to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Oklahoma was among 48 states and the District of Columbia experiencing growth in real GDP in 2010. However, Oklahoma’s 2009 advance estimate was significantly revised downward primarily due to updated prices for natural gas.
The BEA’s advance estimate for 2009 state GDP showed Oklahoma’s real GDP had grown by 6.6 percent, leading the nation. The largest contributor to real GDP growth was mining, accounting for 7.23 percentage points of the total growth in real GDP. However, based on updated information, mining actually declined by 0.99 percent in 2009. That adjustment caused the state’s GDP to fall to ‐1.0 percent, ranking Oklahoma 15th in GDP growth among states in 2009.
Oklahoma registered a real GDP of $133.5 billion in 2010, a 1.0 percent gain from the revised $132.1 billion in 2009; U.S. real GDP grew at 2.6 percent during the same period. Retail trade contributed to real GDP growth in every state in 2010 and was the leading contributor in Oklahoma, accounting for 0.42 percent of total growth. Durable goods manufacturing was the second‐largest contributor to real GDP growth in Oklahoma accounting for 0.40 percentage point of the total growth. Government (0.25 percent) was the state’s third‐largest real GDP contributor with state and local government accounting for nearly 70 percent of total government real GDP. September 2011 Page 3
Oklahoma City, OK (MSA)40.5%Tulsa, OK (MSA)30.4%Lawton, OK (MSA)2.7%Remainder of Oklahoma25.0%Metropolitan Area Contribution to State Real Gross Domestic Product2009Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic AnalysisMetropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) are the county‐based definitions developed by the Office of Management and Budget for federal statistical purposes. A metropolitan area is defined as a geographic area consisting of a large population nucleus together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with the nucleus.
Nationally, metropolitan statistical areas represent approximately 90 percent of total GDP. In Oklahoma, the three MSAs of Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Lawton accounted for roughly 75 percent of total state GDP in 2009.
Real U.S. GDP by metropolitan area declined 2.4 percent in 2009 after declining 0.4 percent in 2008, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The economic decline was widespread as real GDP declined in 292 of 366 (or 80 percent) metropolitan statistical areas, led by national declines in durable‐goods manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services.
In contrast to most industries, natural resources and mining was a strong positive contributor to growth in 2009. Growth accelerated in 70 metropolitan areas, most notably in areas where natural resources and mining industries are concentrated such as Casper, WY and Oklahoma City, OK where this industry contributed more than ten percentage points to growth.
In terms of growth in real GDP, Oklahoma City MSA ranked 3rd out of the 366 U.S. metropolitan areas growing by 14.5 percent to $59.5 billion in 2009. Tulsa MSA ranked 9th growing by 7.6 percent to $44.8 billion followed by Lawton MSA ranked at 17th growing by 4.8 percent to $4.0 billion. September 2011 Page 4
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11PercentUSOklahomaU.S. and Oklahoma Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsThe unemployment rate measures the percentage of people who are without work and is calculated by dividing the estimated number of unemployed people in the state by the civilian labor force. The result expresses unemployment as a percentage of the labor force.
The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, as a result the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Nationally, the number of unemployed persons, at 14.0 million, was essentially unchanged in August, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The jobless rate has shown little change since April.
Oklahoma’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 5.5 percent in July, following a revised 5.4 percent rate in June. Oklahoma continued to hold the fifth‐lowest unemployment rate among all states in July. Nevada again reported the highest unemployment rate among the states at 12.9 percent in July, while North Dakota again had the lowest jobless rate at 3.3 percent.
In July, 72 out of 77 counties in Oklahoma saw their jobless rates fall. Latimer County once more had Oklahoma’s highest unemployment rate at 9.7 percent, while Roger Mills County again reported the state’s lowest rate of 2.7 percent. September 2011 Page 5
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Initial ClaimsInitial Claims4‐Week Moving AverageOklahoma Initial Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance (Not Seasonally Adjusted)Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training AdministrationInitial unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance benefits for the first time. This particular variable is useful because it gives a timely assessment of the overall economy. Initial claims are a leading indicator in that they point to changes in labor market conditions. An increasing trend signals that layoffs are occurring. Conversely, a decreasing trend suggests an improving labor market. The four‐week moving average of initial claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Initial jobless claims are trending sideways pointing to no significant improvement in the labor market. Initial claims fell 12,000 in the August 27th week to 409,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). However, that improvement was partially offset by a 4,000 upward revision to the prior week to 421,000 which is the highest level since mid July, The four‐week average, at 410,250, is up for the second week in a row and compares against 408,250 at month end July.
Continuing claims fell a slight 18,000 in data for the August 20th week to 3.735 million with the four‐week average, down 3,000 to 3.726 million, trending flat for the last two months.
In Oklahoma, initial claims continue to trend down. Oklahoma’s initial claims fell by 123 from 2,601 to 2,478 for the file week ending on August 20th. During the same period, the initial claims four‐week moving average dropped by 48 from 2,633 to 2,585. Continued claims dropped by 36 and the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.8 percent in the August 20th file week.
September 2011 Page 6
U.S. (01/01=100)
Oklahoma (01/01=100)
Nonfarm payroll employment measures the number of jobs in the state. The number of jobs and the industries that create those jobs are important indicators of a state’s economic health. Payroll employment is one of the most current and reliable indicators of economic conditions and recessionary trends.
The U.S. economy failed to add jobs for the first time in almost a year in August. Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged in August—the worst result since a small decline in September 2010—as the government sector continued to shed jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The private sector added only 17,000 jobs. Notably, this was also the first time since February 1945 that the government has reported a net job change of zero.
Employment changed little in most major industries in August. About 45,000 telecom jobs were off company payrolls because of a strike at Verizon Communications Inc., contributing to the worst private‐sector performance since February 2010. But payrolls were weak even without the one‐off Verizon impact.
Statewide, nonfarm employment continued to grow in July adding 4,500 jobs for a 0.3 percent increase over June. Six of Oklahoma’s 11 statewide supersectors reported job gains in July, with educational & health services (+2,600 jobs), and professional & business services (+2,200 jobs), leading the way. The largest monthly losses came from manufacturing (‐1,600 jobs), and leisure & hospitality (‐1,300 jobs), with smaller losses reported in trade, transportation & utilities; and other services.
Over the year, nonfarm employment was up 34,000 jobs or 2.2 percent. Manufacturing led the eight growing supersectors, adding 9,400 jobs for a 7.6 percent gain. Government posted the largest over‐the‐year loss, shedding 6,100 jobs or ‐1.8 percent. September 2011 Page 7
2,6001,300‐4,800‐6,200‐2,000‐100‐200‐1,500‐1,900‐1,700‐900‐8,000‐6,000‐4,000‐2,00002,0004,000GovernmentOther ServicesLeisure and HospitalityEducation and Health ServicesProfessional and Business ServicesFinancial ActivitiesInformationTrade, Transportation, and UtilitiesManufacturingConstructionMining and LoggingOklahoma Employment Change by Industry2009 ‐ 2010Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES), U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment growth by industry identifies the types of jobs being created in the state. Conversely, industries with a decreasing employment trend indicate those which are becoming less important to the state’s economy. There may also be industries which behave more cyclically, growing during expansion and decreasing in times of economic slowdown or contraction. These changes are crucial in that they help to recognize the types of jobs being lost by individuals. Anticipating what will happen in recovery helps identify whether those jobs will return or what types of new jobs will be created. Consequently, key information for planning reemployment, retraining, and other workforce and economic development programs is contained within these data.
Job losses continued in 2010 albeit at a much slower pace than 2009 which, in terms of number of jobs lost (‐50,800), was the worst year since record keeping began in 1939. Oklahoma total nonfarm employment shed 15,500 jobs in 2010 contracting 1.0 percent.
Job losses in 2010 were fairly widespread among most industry groups with education and health services (+2,600) and professional and business services (+1,300) being the only sectors experiencing job growth in 2010. Nearly all employment growth in education and health services came from the ambulatory health care service and hospital sectors. Professional and business services growth was led by employment services.
As in 2009, manufacturing suffered the largest employment losses in 2010 dropping 6,200 jobs after losing 20,500 in 2009. Durable goods manufacturing lost 5,400 jobs while non‐durable goods manufacturing declined by 900 jobs. The broad trade, transportation and utilities sector followed with an over‐the‐year loss of 4,800 jobs. Leading the losses in this sector were truck transportation, retail trade and wholesale September 2011 Page 8
trade. Construction lost 2,000 jobs in 2010 with the bulk of the job losses being in specialty trade contractors.
The information sector employment fell by 1,900 jobs in 2010 with most of the job losses occurring in telecommunications and reflecting further consolidation in that industry. Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 1,700 with the majority of job losses in accommodation and food services. Other services employment dropped by 900 jobs, government lost 200 jobs and mining and logging edged down 100 jobs.
September 2011 Page 9
US (01/01=100)
Oklahoma (01/01=100)
Manufacturing and production are still important parts of both the U.S. and Oklahoma economies and have been seriously adversely affected by the recession. In Oklahoma, manufacturing accounts for the largest share of private output in the state and one of the largest shares of employment. In addition, many manufacturing jobs are among the highest paying jobs in the state.
At one time, manufacturing made up 38 percent of the nation’s employment. However, manufacturing employment in the United States has been declining since 1979, as productivity, technology gains, and the transfer of manufacturing to locations outside the United States have reduced the demand for traditional manufacturing employment. Furthermore, current shifts in the industry away from heavy sectors, such as automobiles and basic chemicals toward higher‐tech products like computer chips are also accelerating manufacturing’s long‐term shrinkage.
U.S. manufacturing employment was essentially unchanged in August (‐3,000), following a gain of 36,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For the past four months, manufacturing has added an average of 14,000 jobs per month, compared with an average of 35,000 jobs per month in the first four months of the year.
For the first time since August 2010, Oklahoma’s manufacturing employment saw job losses, shedding 1,600 jobs (‐1.2 percent), in July. Prior to July’s report, Oklahoma manufacturers had added employment for 10 consecutive months. July’s manufacturing job losses were primarily in durable goods. Over the year, manufacturing has added 9,400 jobs for a 7.6 percent annual growth rate. September 2011 Page 10
20.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.0Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11IndexUSMid‐AmericaOklahomaPurchasing Managers' Index (Manufacturing)Sources: ISM Manufacturing Report On Business® and Business Conditions Index for Mid‐America, Creighton University Economists consider the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) a key economic indicator. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys more than 300 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The ISM manufacturing index is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession. For the region, since 1994, the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group at Creighton University has conducted a monthly survey of supply managers in nine states (including Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota), to produce leading economic indicators for the Mid‐America economy using the same methodology as the national survey by the ISM.
Activity in the manufacturing sector grew slightly in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI that nonetheless suggests the economy isn’t currently in a recession. The ISM manufacturing index slowed to 50.6 percent from 50.9 percent in July, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 25th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate.
The Production Index registered 48.6 percent, indicating contraction for the first time since May of 2009, when it registered 45 percent. The New Orders and Backlog of Orders Indexes edged up slightly from July, but both indexes are indicating contraction in August at slower rates than in July. The rate of increase for input prices slowed for the fourth consecutive month, dropping another 3.5 percentage points in August to 55.5 percent which may give manufacturers some breathing room in their production and hiring plans. September 2011 Page 11
For the fifth time in the past six months, the Business Conditions Index for the nine‐state Mid‐America region fell. The index slumped to 52.0 from 54.1 in July, according to the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group. While this is the 21st consecutive month that the index has been above growth neutral 50.0, the reading for August was the lowest recorded since December 2009 and clearly indicates that regional growth is weakening with an increasing likelihood of a recession.
Oklahoma’s Business Conditions Index from a monthly survey of supply managers in the state declined to a still healthy 56.8 from July’s 61.9. Components for August’s index were new orders at 56.7, production or sales at 51.4, delivery lead time at 69.2, inventories at 44.9, and employment at 61.7.
September 2011 Page 12
050100150200250Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Active Rigs$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160Price Per BBLActive Rotary RigsCushing OK WTI SpotOklahoma Active Rotary Rigs & Cushing, OK WTI Spot PriceSOURCES: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes Rig CountsThe Baker Hughes rig count is an important indicator for the energy industry and Oklahoma. Rig counts generally rise following increased oil and gas company development and exploration spending, which is influenced by the current and expected price of oil and natural gas (among other factors). Therefore, the rig count reflects the strength and stability of energy prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI‐Cushing) is a light crude oil produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing a number of other crude streams and which is traded in the domestic spot market at Cushing, Oklahoma.
Oklahoma produces a substantial amount of oil, with annual production typically accounting for more than 3 percent of total U.S. production in recent years. Crude oil wells and gathering pipeline systems are concentrated in central Oklahoma. Two of the 100 largest oil fields in the United States are found in Oklahoma.
The city of Cushing, in central Oklahoma, is a major crude oil trading hub connecting Gulf Coast producers to Midwest refining markets. In addition to Oklahoma crude oil, the Cushing hub receives supply from several major pipelines that originate in Texas. Traditionally, the Cushing Hub has pushed Gulf Coast and Mid‐Continent crude oil supply north to Midwest refining markets. For this reason, Cushing is the designated delivery point for NYMEX crude oil futures contracts. Crude oil supplies from Cushing that are not delivered to the Midwest are fed to Oklahoma’s five refineries, which have a combined distillation capacity of over 500 thousand barrels per day—roughly 3 percent of the total U.S. refining capacity. September 2011 Page 13
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil will rise from $100 per barrel in 2011 to $107 per barrel in 2012 as global spare production capacity and inventories continue to decline. This forecast assumes that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 2.4 percent this year and 2.6 percent next year, while world oil‐consumption‐weighted real GDP grows by 3.4 and 4.1 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively. However, these assumptions do not fully reflect recent economic and financial developments that point towards a weaker economic outlook and also contributed to a sharp drop in world crude oil prices during the first week of August. There is a significant downside risk for oil prices if economic and financial market concerns become more widespread or take hold.
After peaking in April, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $86.56 per barrel in August, falling from July’s $97.30 per barrel average.
Oklahoma’s rotary rig activity increased to 192 in July adding 16 rigs from June’s count of 169. Over the year, Oklahoma’s active rotary rig count has grown by 59 rigs.
September 2011 Page 14
050100150200250Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Active Rigs$0$2$4$6$8$10$12Price Per MCFActive Rotary RigsNatural Gas Wellhead PriceOklahoma Active Rotary Rigs & Natural Gas Wellhead PriceSources: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes Rig Counts
Oklahoma is one of the top natural gas producers in the United States with production typically accounting for almost one‐tenth of the U.S. total. More than a dozen of the 100 largest natural gas fields in the country are found in Oklahoma and proven reserves of conventional natural gas have been increasing in recent years.
Most natural gas in Oklahoma is consumed by the electricity generation and industrial sectors. About three‐fifths of Oklahoma households use natural gas as their primary energy source for home heating. Nevertheless, only about one‐third of Oklahoma’s natural gas output is consumed within the state. The remaining supply is sent via pipeline to neighboring states, the majority to Kansas, including the natural gas trading hubs in Texas and Kansas.
Extremely hot weather settled on much of the nation in July, with U.S. population‐weighted cooling degree‐days 27 percent higher than the 30‐year normal and 8 percent higher than last year, contributing to an increase in natural gas consumption for electricity generation compared with July 2010. Nevertheless, the estimated 246 billion cubic feet (Bcf) increase in natural gas working inventories during July 2011 was 21 Bcf higher than during the same month last year.
Natural gas wellhead prices had seen monthly improvement since March 2011. August estimated natural gas wellhead prices fell slightly averaging $4.20 per Mcf, down from July’s $4.27 price.
The U.S. natural gas rotary rig count for the week ending September 2, as reported by Baker Hughes, fell by 3 to 895 active units. Meanwhile, oil‐directed rigs dropped by 5 to 1,064 units, expanding the diversion between the two drilling strategies. September 2011 Page 15
050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11PermitsBuilding Permits3‐Month Moving AverageU.S. Total Residential Building Permits, 2001‐2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentThis indicator measures the number of permits issued for housing units (single family home or apartment) authorized for construction. Because permits precede construction, they are considered a leading indicator for the residential construction industry and the overall economy. Most of the construction begins the same month the permit is issued. The remainder usually begins construction during the next three months. Consequently, we have depicted total permits relative to a three‐month moving average.
Housing contributes to GDP in two basic ways: through private residential investment and consumption spending on housing services. According to the National Home Builders Association, residential investment has historically averaged roughly 5 percent of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12 and 13 percent, for a combined 17 to 18 percent of GDP.
Homebuilders remain cautious as housing permits slipped 3.2 percent in July, following a 1.3 percent rise in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 597,000 or 3.8 percent above the July 2010 estimate of 575,000.
Over the past several years, U.S. housing starts have dropped to around 400,000 units at an annualized rate, the lowest level in decades. This is largely due to the huge housing overhang that continues to weigh on new construction and depress housing prices. According to a recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a simple model of housing supply that takes into account residential mortgage foreclosures suggests that housing starts will return to their long‐run average by about 2014 if house prices first stabilize and then begin appreciating, and the bloated inventory of foreclosed properties declines. September 2011 Page 16
05001,0001,5002,0002,500Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11PermitsBuilding Permits3‐Month Moving AverageOklahoma Total Residential Building Permits, 2001‐2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development Oklahoma total residential permitting took a significant drop in July falling 37.6 percent from June. The sharp slide in July permitting was largely due to the multi‐family component which fell 96.8 percent from June. Single family permitting declined 10.3 percent from June. Year to date, total residential permitting during the first seven months of 2011 was down 2.0 percent from the same period in 2010. Year‐to‐date single family permitting was down 11.4 percent from 2010 while multi‐family permitting was up 34.0 percent compared to 2010.
September 2011 Page 17
U.S. (2000.1=100)
Oklahoma (2000.1=100)
Personal income is a broad measure of economic activity and one for which relatively current data are available. Personal income includes earnings; property income such as dividends, interest, and rent; and transfer payments, such as retirement, unemployment insurance, and various other benefit payments. It is a measure of income that is available for spending and is seen as an indicator of the economic well‐being of the residents of a state. Earnings and wages make up the largest portion of personal income.
To show the hugely different levels of total personal income for the U.S. and Oklahoma on the same chart, these data have been converted to index numbers. This chart shows a comparison of Oklahoma and U.S. growth in real personal income with 1st quarter 2001 as the base year.
In July, consumers made a nice comeback in terms of income growth and spending. Personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $32.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In June, personal income increased $27.7 billion, or 0.2 percent and DPI increased $22.6 billion, or 0.2 percent.
Consumer spending rebounded a sharp 0.8 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in June. By category, durables jumped 1.9 percent after declining 1.1 percent in June. Noticeably, motor vehicle sales are up as the supply constraint related parts shortages from Japan is easing. Nondurables increased 0.7 percent, following a 0.5 percent decrease in June. Services rose 0.7 percent after nudging up 0.1 percent in June. The latest numbers on spending should ease concern about a double‐dip recession. September 2011 Page 18
Construction4.5%Manufacturing10.2%Forestry, fishing, and related activities0.1%Educational and health services11.6%Information1.8%Professional and business services113%Financial activities5.5%Mining6.0%Trade, transportation and utilities15.6%Other services, except public administration3.0%Leisure and hospitality3.5%Government and government enterprises26.7%Oklahoma Industry Contribution to EarningsFirst Quarter 2011Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
State personal income growth accelerated to 1.8 percent in the 1st quarter of 2011, from 0.8 percent in the 4th quarter of 2010, according to estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Personal income increased in all states, with growth ranging from 0.7 percent in Iowa to 6.9 percent in North Dakota. Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased to 0.9 percent in the 1st quarter from 0.4 percent in the 4th quarter of 2010.
A two‐percentage point reduction in the personal contribution rate for social security, one of the provisions of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, accounted for most of the acceleration in 1st quarter personal income growth in most states.
Mining and durable‐goods manufacturing were the best performing industries in the 1st quarter. Overall, mining earnings grew 5.5 percent and durable goods earnings grew 2.8 percent. Earnings in all other industries combined grew only 0.8 percent. The mining industry (which includes oil and gas extraction) contributed more than any other nonfarm industry to personal income growth in six of the seven fastest growing states (North Dakota, Wyoming, Texas, Montana, Oklahoma, and Alaska).
Oklahoma’s personal income grew by 2.5 percent in 1st quarter 2011, ranking it the 5th fastest growth rate among states. Total earnings grew by 1.36 percent with the largest contributors to earnings growth being mining (0.28 percent) and durable goods manufacturing (0.25 percent). Other services; construction; real estate and rental & leasing; and professional, scientific, and technical services earnings provided the largest drags to 1st quarter earnings growth.
September 2011 Page 19
‐6.0‐4.0‐2.00.02.04.06.08.0Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Apr‐11Jul‐11Percent $200,000$220,000$240,000$260,000$280,000$300,000$320,000$340,000$360,000$380,000$400,000Retail Sales (000)% Change from previous monthRetail & food services salesU.S. Retail Sales (Adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading‐day differences)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food ServicesConsumer spending accounts for two‐thirds of the U.S. economy and is therefore essential to Oklahoma’s economy. Retail sales account for around one‐half of consumer spending and economic recovery calls for consumption growth
Retail sales strengthened in July, led by a surge in auto sales and with support from most other components. U.S. retail and food service sales for July reached $390.4 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. June retail sales were up a revised 0.3 percent which had been originally estimated a 0.1% gain. Retail sales on a year‐ago basis in July improved to 8.5 percent from 8.3 percent in June. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 8.6 percent on a year‐over‐year basis, compared to 8.2 percent the prior month.
Auto sales continued to rebound, rising 0.4 percent, following a 0.7 percent jump in June. While prices for gas easing—a gallon averaged $3.65 in July—many Americans are still spending heavily on fuel, while also opening their wallets for other purchases. Gasoline station sales rebounded 1.6 percent after dropping 1.7 percent.
Outside of autos and gasoline, sales were mostly positive. Leaders were miscellaneous store retailers, up 2.4 percent; electronics & appliance stores, up 1.4 percent; and nonstore retailers, up 0.9 percent. Also seeing increases were furniture & home furnishing, food & beverage, health & personal care, and clothing & accessories. Leading the downside were sporting goods, hobby & book stores, down 1.5 percent, and building materials & garden equipment, down 0.4 percent. Food services & drinking places eased 0.1 percent while general merchandise sales were flat. September 2011 Page 20
1,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,000Jan‐01Apr‐01Jul‐01Oct‐01Jan‐02Apr‐02Jul‐02Oct‐02Jan‐03Apr‐03Jul‐03Oct‐03Jan‐04Apr‐04Jul‐04Oct‐04Jan‐05Apr‐05Jul‐05Oct‐05Jan‐06Apr‐06Jul‐06Oct‐06Jan‐07Apr‐07Jul‐07Oct‐07Jan‐08Apr‐08Jul‐08Oct‐08Jan‐09Apr‐09Jul‐09Oct‐09Jan‐10Apr‐10Jul‐10Oct‐10Jan‐11Thousands (000)Retail Trade6‐Month Moving AverageOklahoma Total Adjusted Retail TradeSource: Center for Economic & Management Research, University of Oklahoma
The Center for Economic and Management Research (CEMR) Price College of Business, at the University of Oklahoma produces the Oklahoma Monthly Retail Sales Series containing monthly estimates of retail sales for Oklahoma, the Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Lawton Metropolitan Statistical Areas and 48 selected cities in Oklahoma. The series is based on sales tax collection data provided by the Business Tax Division, Oklahoma Tax Commission (OTC). In order to take out monthly volatility, we have used a six‐month moving average.
After falling in February, Oklahoma retail sales picked up in March. Total adjusted retail trade saw a $100.8 million or 4.9 percent improvement from February and was 8.1 percent over March 2010, according to OU’s Center for Economic and Management Research.
Monthly gains in March were led by non‐durable goods sales advancing 5.2 percent from February. Estimated gasoline sales saw the largest increase rising 28.6 percent following a 25.7 percent drop in February. Other gains in non‐durable goods sales were seen in miscellaneous non‐durable goods (13.9 percent), apparel (12.8percent), and liquor (0.4 percent). Losses in other non‐durable goods categories included eating & drinking sales (‐13.4 percent), food sales (‐8.1 percent), general merchandise sales (‐4.8 percent), and drugs sales (0.8 percent).
Durable goods sales declined 1.2 percent from February with losses seen in lumber & hardware (‐7.4 percent), auto accessories & repair (‐1.0 percent). Gains were seen in other durable goods categories with electronics & music stores (3.2 percent), miscellaneous durables (3.0 percent), used merchandise (2.8 percent), and furniture (0.8 percent
September 2011 Page 21
OKLAHOMA AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, 2010
Occupation
Average Annual Wage
Percent
U.S.
Code Occupation Title Oklahoma U.S. Average
September 2011 Page 22
00‐0000
All Occupations
$37,372
$44,410
84.15%
11‐0000
Management Occupations
$80,630
$105,440
76.47%
13‐0000
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
$54,459
$67,690
80.45%
15‐0000
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
$59,730
$77,230
77.34%
17‐0000
Architecture and Engineering Occupations
$75,344
$75,550
99.73%
19‐0000
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
$64,321
$66,390
96.88%
21‐0000
Community and Social Services Occupations
$37,044
$43,180
85.79%
23‐0000
Legal Occupations
$74,429
$96,940
76.78%
25‐0000
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
$39,740
$50,440
78.79%
27‐0000
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations
$37,943
$52,290
72.56%
29‐0000
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
$59,810
$71,280
83.91%
31‐0000
Healthcare Support Occupations
$24,116
$26,920
89.58%
33‐0000
Protective Service Occupations
$35,800
$42,490
84.26%
35‐0000
Food Preparation and Serving‐Related Occupations
$19,100
$21,240
89.92%
37‐0000
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations
$21,634
$25,300
85.51%
39‐0000
Personal Care and Service Occupations
$21,737
$24,590
88.40%
41‐0000
Sales and Related Occupations
$29,700
$36,790
80.73%
43‐0000
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
$29,067
$33,470
86.84%
45‐0000
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
$26,493
$24,330
108.89%
47‐0000
Construction and Extraction Occupations
$36,223
$43,870
82.57%
49‐0000
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
$39,205
$42,810
91.58%
51‐0000
Production Occupations
$32,635
$33,770
96.64%
53‐0000
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
$30,547
$32,660
93.53%
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics, 2010.OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 2 3
Total Employment1
1,750,130
1,928,790
178,670
10.21%
Goods‐Producing
314,370
337,960
23,590
7.50%
Natural Resources and Mining
88,290
92,850
4,560
5.17%
Construction
75,560
91,630
16,070
21.26%
Manufacturing
150,520
153,480
2,960
1.97%
Services‐Providing
1,319,060
1,465,160
146,100
11.08%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
289,740
308,830
19,090
6.59%
Information
28,960
27,220
‐1,740
‐6.02%
Financial Activities
83,110
86,650
3,540
4.25%
Professional and Business Services
184,250
217,370
33,120
17.97%
Education and Health Services
356,210
408,040
51,830
14.55%
Leisure and Hospitality
143,770
160,990
17,230
11.98%
Other Services (Except Government)
65,740
70,530
4,800
7.30%
Government
167,280
185,530
18,250
10.91%
Total Self‐Employed and Unpaid Family Workers2
116,690
125,680
8,980
7.70%
Self‐Employed Workers
114,790
123,670
8,880
7.73%
Unpaid Family Workers
1,900
2,010
110
5.74%
Agriculture3
36,200
36,180
‐20
‐0.06%
Mining
52,090
56,680
4,580
8.80%
Oil and Gas Extraction
19,810
20,270
460
2.33%
Mining (except Oil and Gas)
2,360
2,580
220
9.33%
Support Activities for Mining
29,930
33,830
3,900
13.04%
Utilities
10,870
11,540
670
6.14%
Construction
75,560
91,630
16,070
21.26%
Construction of Buildings
16,080
16,370
290
1.79%
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
12,490
13,600
1,100
8.82%
Specialty Trade Contractors
46,990
61,670
14,680
31.23%
Manufacturing
150,520
153,480
2,960
1.97%
Food Manufacturing
19,650
19,710
70
0.35%
Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing
2,510
2,980
470
18.88%
Textile Mills
160
180
20
9.20%OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 24
Textile Product Mills
720
580
‐150
‐20.58%
Apparel Manufacturing
1,050
780
‐270
‐25.69%
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
290
260
‐30
‐9.69%
Wood Product Manufacturing
3,140
2,950
‐190
‐6.18%
Paper Manufacturing
2,950
2,270
‐680
‐23.08%
Printing and Related Support Activities
3,600
2,950
‐650
‐18.03%
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
2,470
2,860
390
15.84%
Chemical Manufacturing
2,870
2,720
‐150
‐5.16%
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing
10,560
9,910
‐650
‐6.16%
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
8,480
8,590
100
1.23%
Primary Metal Manufacturing
4,930
5,660
720
14.68%
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
24,090
24,620
520
2.18%
Machinery Manufacturing
30,900
35,610
4,710
15.24%
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
6,330
6,630
300
4.76%
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing
3,170
3,020
‐150
‐4.86%
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
15,670
14,250
‐1,430
‐9.09%
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
2,540
2,600
60
2.36%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
4,430
4,370
‐70
‐1.47%
Wholesale Trade
59,780
62,300
2,530
4.23%
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
30,070
32,820
2,750
9.16%
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
23,640
23,810
170
0.70%
Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers
6,070
5,670
‐390
‐6.49%
Retail Trade
173,280
186,210
12,930
7.46%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
23,530
22,260
‐1,270
‐5.39%
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
5,150
5,960
810
15.78%
Electronics and Appliance Stores
4,530
3,730
‐800
‐17.67%
Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
15,280
19,920
4,640
30.36%
Food and Beverage Stores
21,630
18,890
‐2,740
‐12.67%
Health and Personal Care Stores
11,190
14,620
3,430
30.62%
Gasoline Stations
13,860
15,300
1,440
10.36%
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
11,710
12,470
760
6.53%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
6,940
7,480
540
7.84%
General Merchandise Stores
46,300
52,790
6,490
14.02%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
11,140
11,190
50
0.46%
Nonstore Retailers
2,020
1,590
‐430
‐21.22%OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 25
Transportation and Warehousing
45,810
48,780
2,970
6.48%
Air Transportation
7,890
6,420
‐1,470
‐18.62%
Rail Transportation
1,840
1,840
0
0.00%
Truck Transportation
19,030
21,710
2,690
14.12%
Transit and Ground Passenger Transport
*
*
*
*
Pipeline Transportation
1,880
2,030
160
8.27%
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
*
*
*
*
Support Activities for Transportation
6,080
7,360
1,290
21.22%
Couriers and Messengers
4,270
4,330
60
1.45%
Warehousing and Storage
3,970
4,200
240
5.92%
Information
28,960
27,220
‐1,740
‐6.02%
Publishing Industries
7,260
6,310
‐950
‐13.09%
Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries
1,960
2,000
40
2.10%
Broadcasting (except Internet)
3,640
3,110
‐530
‐14.49%
Telecommunications
13,900
13,610
‐290
‐2.08%
Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services
1,570
1,430
‐140
‐8.88%
Other Information Services
640
760
120
19.06%
Finance and Insurance
59,470
61,040
1,570
2.64%
Monetary Authorities ‐ Central Bank
*
*
*
*
Credit Intermediation and Related Activities
32,180
33,070
890
2.77%
Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
4,710
5,740
1,030
21.75%
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
22,210
21,900
‐310
‐1.40%
Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles
*
*
*
*
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
23,650
25,610
1,970
8.31%
Real Estate
11,570
12,720
1,150
9.92%
Rental and Leasing Services
11,600
12,400
810
6.97%
Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)
480
490
10
1.87%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
65,010
82,030
17,020
26.18%
Management of Companies and Enterprises
13,790
14,820
1,030
7.46%
OKLAHOMA LONG‐TERM INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2008 ‐ 2018
Employment
Employment
Change
Industry Title 2008 2018 Numeric Percent
September 2011 Page 26
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
105,450
120,520
15,070
14.29%
Administrative and Support Services
102,350
117,330
14,980
14.64%
Waste Management and Remediation Service
3,100
3,190
80
2.67%
Educational Services
162,550
175,030
12,480
7.68%
Health Care and Social Assistance
193,660
233,010
39,350
20.32%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
65,690
82,120
16,440
25.02%
Hospitals
68,170
86,820
18,640
27.35%
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
34,370
33,260
‐1,110
‐3.24%
Social Assistance
25,430
30,810
5,380
21.16%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
18,670
21,360
2,690
14.39%
Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries
2,400
2,690
300
12.39%
Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution
720
790
70
9.70%
Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
15,560
17,880
2,320
14.91%
Accommodation and Food Services
125,090
139,630
14,540
11.62%
Accommodation
11,630
12,930
1,300
11.13%
Food Services and Drinking Places
113,460
126,700
13,240
11.67%
Other Services (Except Government)
65,740
70,530
4,800
7.30%
Repair and Maintenance
14,230
16,770
2,540
17.85%
Personal and Laundry Services
13,580
15,850
2,260
16.67%
Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations
35,970
35,920
‐40
‐0.12%
Private Households
1,960
1,990
40
1.84%
Government
167,280
185,530
18,250
10.91%
Federal Government
45,290
45,870
580
1.29%
Federal Government, Excluding Postal Service
37,020
37,940
920
2.49%
Postal Service
8,270
7,940
‐340
‐4.06%
State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals
38,870
41,770
2,900
7.46%
Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals
83,120
97,890
14,760
17.76%
SOURCE: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, 2008‐2018 Industry Projections, 2010.
1 Total employment includes covered and non‐covered employment, agricultural employment and self‐employed and unpaid family workers. Covered employment data are from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program from Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Non‐covered employment data are average annual data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics program from Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. Employment estimates have been rounded to the nearest 10. Percent change is based on unrounded data. 2 Self‐employed & unpaid family workers data are produced from the projection matrix system based on Oklahoma OES (Occupational Employment Statistics) survey and BLS Current Population Survey. The estimates of the number of self‐employed in the base year are larger this projections round than they were in previous rounds because the file supplied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics now includes estimates of all self‐employed jobs (jobs held by people primarily self‐employed plus jobs held by people secondarily self‐employed). 3 Employment data for Agriculture are from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey 2008 and QCEW program. * Employment data is withheld to maintain data confidentiality.
September 2011 Page 27