Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 1, 2020 17:07:24 GMT -5

Today we started a new series written by Ian (with significant editorial contribution by moi), State of the System. It's a lot like the old System Restart series we used to run in that it will go position-by-position and look at what the club has and why it does (or doesn't).

There may not be baseball, but that doesn't mean we can't write about it!

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 3, 2020 9:05:35 GMT -5

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2020 15:40:49 GMT -5

Glad you like it! We based an episode of the podcast on these last night, so hopefully folks like that too.

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2020 12:58:38 GMT -5

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 15, 2020 14:15:59 GMT -5

To see Daniel Flores name on there was tough to remember about. Although the money spent isn't like on pitchers, seems like the failure rate on catching prospects is pretty high. Is that pretty standard for all MLB teams ?

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 22, 2020 10:40:09 GMT -5

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 29, 2020 11:33:26 GMT -5

I found myself VERY surprised to see how little the Red Sox had done committing resources up the middle, at least until last year. With the exception of Moncada and Flores, they've not spent a lot at the position internationally, which I found very surprising, and in the draft, since Deven Marrero in 2012, CJ Chatham and Brett Netzer were their only draft picks to get significant bonuses, and both were technically under-slot for where they were drafted.

There are 9 middle infielders in our top 60. All but one have been acquired since J2 2017, and four were in the past year.

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by ryan24 on Apr 30, 2020 7:08:56 GMT -5

Some really good stuff in these write ups. Always amazing to me on what people see in a 18 kid to project him down the road. The sox consistently over the years have developed position players , but little in the way of pitching. Thus the condition of the farm caused by having to trade for pitching. Be interested to see how Bloom, with his Rays background , develops pitching. I think with time we will see the total farm system rebound. Hopefully much like the dodger farm is right now. Pitching, young pitching has to be THE priority.

Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2020 7:53:33 GMT -5

Some really good stuff in these write ups. Always amazing to me on what people see in a 18 kid to project him down the road. The sox consistently over the years have developed position players , but little in the way of pitching. Thus the condition of the farm caused by having to trade for pitching. Be interested to see how Bloom, with his Rays background , develops pitching. I think with time we will see the total farm system rebound. Hopefully much like the dodger farm is right now. Pitching, young pitching has to be THE priority.

True.

I mean, I really, really wish the Sox had kept Moncada and Kopech. I regret losing them. I don't regret the trade.

I do regret that they had to make the trade because of where they were and that they had no young major league ready pitching.

I grew up in the 80s when they developed Clemens, Boyd, and Hurst, along with Nipper and a few years earlier they had developed Ojeda and Tudor prior to that. That's quality pitching.

I had those hopes for about two seconds with they had Kopech, Espinoza, and Groome in the system at the same time - seconds I say because they almost immmediately dealt away Espinoza.

It's hard having to trade away a talent like Moncada (wish he was their 2b now) because you need to get a pitcher the caliber of Sale because you can't develop a guy like him - or maybe I'm not even correct saying that - I mean there's a non-zero chance that Kopech winds up better than Sale was even at his best.

I guess it would be nice to be competing with young pitchers ready and leading the charge at the same time a young core is in place, but that would be pie in the sky for most franchises I suppose - to have that much talent on both sides of the ball.

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2020 10:20:53 GMT -5

FWIW, I'd note there's a slight difference between not having young, MLB-ready pitching and not having an ace the likes of Sale.

If the rotation were made up of David Price and four Eduardo Rodriguezes, they still would have made the trade for Sale. And keep in mind they weren't just trading for a top 5 pitcher in the game, but one on a stupidly team-friendly contract for three seasons.

There's a legitimate criticism in the club's inability to develop young pitching (although as we examined in the series, most of that was pre-Dombrowski, as the club DID have potential starting arms in the system in Kopech, Shaun Anderson, and Logan Allen before trading them all, not to mention Gregory Santos). But the result is more in the fact that they extended Sale and, arguably, then had to trade Price and Betts, not necessarily in the trade for Sale in the first instance.

Not having thought this through fully yet, but there's also an argument that their not having developed a closer earlier led to the Kimbrel trade, including Logan Allen. (Not to mention the "did logan Allen really need to be in that trade" argument.)

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2020 11:19:33 GMT -5

FWIW, I'd note there's a slight difference between not having young, MLB-ready pitching and not having an ace the likes of Sale.

If the rotation were made up of David Price and four Eduardo Rodriguezes, they still would have made the trade for Sale. And keep in mind they weren't just trading for a top 5 pitcher in the game, but one on a stupidly team-friendly contract for three seasons.

There's a legitimate criticism in the club's inability to develop young pitching (although as we examined in the series, most of that was pre-Dombrowski, as the club DID have potential starting arms in the system in Kopech, Shaun Anderson, and Logan Allen before trading them all, not to mention Gregory Santos). But the result is more in the fact that they extended Sale and, arguably, then had to trade Price and Betts, not necessarily in the trade for Sale in the first instance.

Not having thought this through fully yet, but there's also an argument that their not having developed a closer earlier led to the Kimbrel trade, including Logan Allen. (Not to mention the "did logan Allen really need to be in that trade" argument.)

Understood and agreed. The Sox saw an opportunity and jumped on it. I don't think they would have made the deal unless circumstances were fertile for it.

It was. They were a highly competitive team in the go-for-it mode. I don't know if they do that deal if they were in rebuilding mode.

I also have the selective memory bias having grown up in the 80s, so I remember the Sox fronting their rotation with Clemens, Hurst, and Boyd.

I mean, how many prospects develop into Clemens, right? So your point about Sale is well taken. Pitcher his caliber on his contract then don't grow on trees and are rare to develop.

Post by ryan24 on Apr 30, 2020 11:55:14 GMT -5

The 4 main rotation pitchers in 2018 were sales, price, Porcello and Erod. Price was the only one not traded for. He got a HUGE contract. Probably lucky in one respect that the dodgers will get stuck paying the last 2 or 3 years of that deal. Then add in Kimbrel. Both the sale and the Kimbrel trades got the intended results of a WS win, but probably paid a little too much for both. My main point is that Tampa has had over the last several years good homegrown pitching. I hope that Bloom brings some of that to the sox. I guess I will rationalize the trades as Espinoza I am not sure is still in baseball. Kopech is kind of in no man's land with TJ surgery. Allen has flipped between AAA and the majors. So the sox probably got the better value when all is said and done. Moncada is at a fork in the road for me. Was last year his career year and he reverts back to his old self. Does he adjust to the changes the league will make with him. I wish him the best. and hope he is an all-star. There is always risks with trading, but at this stage I think the sox made out pretty well. Can Groome, Mata or Houck step up and become a good major league pitcher ala Hurst, Boyd, and Clemens?

Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 30, 2020 12:09:03 GMT -5

The 4 main rotation pitchers in 2018 were sales, price, Porcello and Erod. Price was the only one not traded for. He got a HUGE contract. Probably lucky in one respect that the dodgers will get stuck paying the last 2 or 3 years of that deal. Then add in Kimbrel. Both the sale and the Kimbrel trades got the intended results of a WS win, but probably paid a little too much for both. My main point is that Tampa has had over the last several years good homegrown pitching. I hope that Bloom brings some of that to the sox. I guess I will rationalize the trades as Espinoza I am not sure is still in baseball. Kopech is kind of in no man's land with TJ surgery. Allen has flipped between AAA and the majors. So the sox probably got the better value when all is said and done. Moncada is at a fork in the road for me. Was last year his career year and he reverts back to his old self. Does he adjust to the changes the league will make with him. I wish him the best. and hope he is an all-star. There is always risks with trading, but at this stage I think the sox made out pretty well. Can Groome, Mata or Houck step up and become a good major league pitcher ala Hurst, Boyd, and Clemens?

I don't think Moncada's season was a fluke. This guy always had some serious ability. He knows how to work the strike zone, has huge power, and the hit tool is there. He's got speed. He's legit.

I think Kopech is looking like it's only a matter of time. I think he's recovered from TJS. Think he was still throwing really hard in spring training, looking like a potential top of the rotation starter.

The Sale for Kopech/Moncada deal will be this generation's Schilling/Anderson for Boddicker deal or Beckett/Lowell for Ramirez/Sanchez deal.

Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 30, 2020 15:34:07 GMT -5

Moncada turns 25 next month (note he's six months younger than CJ Chatham, for reference). There isn't much reason to think that his season was an anomaly.

Also I was going to compare him to Devers last year then realized that Devers is two freaking years younger than even Moncada. Good lord I'm glad they didn't trade him.

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by dmaineah on May 13, 2020 12:37:26 GMT -5

Going through each position poll has made me realize just how truly weak the system is. I hope it proves me wrong. I like Casas & Downs & I’m really rooting for Dalbec. I still don’t see much Pitching.

Post by Chris Hatfield on May 13, 2020 15:51:09 GMT -5

We anticipate running a "cutting room floor" edition with player profiles we took out for length issues, then a summary post wrapping up our findings.

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by Chris Hatfield on May 13, 2020 15:52:17 GMT -5

Going through each position poll has made me realize just how truly weak the system is. I hope it proves me wrong. I like Casas & Downs & I’m really rooting for Dalbec. I still don’t see much Pitching.

Have you read the pieces in this series?

There are surely positions of weakness (middle infield, catcher, high minors pitching), but the corner infield and low minors pitching surprised me with how strong they were.

"We really don't need the whole commercial break/warm-up routine every time a new reliever comes into the game. It certainly made sense in 1884 when they only switched pitchers when the starter was attacked by pickaxe or caught consumption, and no reliever was warming up because he was busy gambling and drinking." - JD

Post by dmaineah on May 13, 2020 18:15:14 GMT -5

Going through each position poll has made me realize just how truly weak the system is. I hope it proves me wrong. I like Casas & Downs & I’m really rooting for Dalbec. I still don’t see much Pitching.

Have you read the pieces in this series?

There are surely positions of weakness (middle infield, catcher, high minors pitching), but the corner infield and low minors pitching surprised me with how strong they were.

Yes

I believe you’re looking at the pitching with those famous “rose colored glasses”. I really hope i’m wrong. (I do like Shugart more then most, I think he is a future MLB Bullpen piece)

Post by jondrink on May 13, 2020 20:32:12 GMT -5

Going through each position poll has made me realize just how truly weak the system is. I hope it proves me wrong. I like Casas & Downs & I’m really rooting for Dalbec. I still don’t see much Pitching.

Have you read the pieces in this series?

There are surely positions of weakness (middle infield, catcher, high minors pitching), but the corner infield and low minors pitching surprised me with how strong they were.