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Thanks to those readers who sent me their logs of the ads they have seen or heard. This log is a compilation of all of the ad sightings logged and received within the past 24 hours. The corresponding videos of the ads are below the Top 10. :

1. (4) (NEW) Jeff Flake ad featuring Sens. McCain and Kyl bemoaning Richard Carmona's "lack of integrity" for airing archive video of same Senators praising Carmona when he had been nominated to be U.S. Surgeon General.

4. (3) Majority PAC slamming Flake as a walking uranium time bomb.

4. (3) (NEW) American Commitment running a positive ad for Flake.

4. (3) Joe Arpaio's ad bragging on how he helps educate juvenile offenders. (15 seconds, so it repeats twice in the 30 second block)

We just noted that the Republican-philic SuperPAC American Future Fund had just filed that it had spent $500,000 to produce and air an ad in favor of GOP nominee Jonathan Paton and slamming Fmr. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the very competitive CD1. Here is that ad, focusing on Kirkpatrick's alleged walking out of a Town Hall meeting during the heated summer of healthcare reform debates. (It was not a town hall, but an event where she was meeting face-to-face with individual constituents.)

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

The independent expenditure campaigns are starting to get in their last licks as Election Day gets scarily close. Here are the ones filed with the Federal Election Commission since last night's post:

--Minutes ago, the American Future Fund filed that it has doubled its investment in the CD1 race, spending $500,000 (total is $1,002,675.22) to produce and air a new ad supporting GOP nominee Jonathan Paton.

--The super Republican SuperPAC called the Congressional Leadership Fund threw down in a big way yesterday, plunking down $572,748.88 on producing and airing an ad slamming Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema (CD9) for her comments about stay-at-home women (complete with bleeps). (They even spent $25,000 on an additional web-only video.

--The DCCC put more moolah into its efforts against Jonathan Paton (CD1) and Vernon Parker (CD9). It spent $518,049.15 on its most recent ad against Paton (total to date is just shy of $2 Million). The DCCC also produced a new ad against Parker ($3,000) and spent $700,025.84 for media time to air it. Their total in that race is also over $1.9 Million.

--The Ending Spending Action Fund put together a new ad supporting Flake, spending $18,000 on production and $250,000 on airing it. Their total is over half-a-million.

--Women Vote!, which is a Democrat-philic effort of Emily's List, had been concentrating on mailers supporting Ann Kirkpatrick in CD1. Today, they branched out, spending $93,778.45 on a media buy (plus $6,186.33 on production) opposing Republican nominee Jonathan Paton in CD1. They also entered the CD9 race, producing and airing a spot opposing Vernon Parker in CD9 for $100,000.

--The National Right to Life PAC spent about $8,690.69 on radio ads on the Premiere Radio Networks, supporting Flake, Paton, Parker, and Martha McSally (CD2). It is not clear whether there are separate spots for each, or just one for the GOP slate.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Thanks to those readers who sent me their logs of the ads they have seen or heard. Mary P., James S., D.D., and two others have multiple entries in the gift card drawing.

This log is a compilation of all of the ad sightings logged and received within the past 36 hours. The corresponding videos of the ads are below the Top 10. (Notably absent is the Flake spot featuring Sens. McCain and Kyl taking umbrage at Carmona using their decade-old praises.):

Monday, October 29, 2012

UPDATE, 4:39pm: A spokesperson for the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) Tweeted that the McCain-Kyl salvo (below the jump) was a "hostage video". Given that McCain was a POW in Vietnam, it was a poor choice of words. The spokesperson has since apologized. (from Weekly Standard)

The Gunfight at the O.K. Corral Arizona Senatorial Showdown picked up a new gunslinger today, when former Arizona Senator Dennis DeConcini (the last Democrat from AZ to serve in the Senate) popped up from behind (under?) a rock. He fired at exiting Sen. Jon Kyl (who took DeConcini's seat), using Kyl's "not intended to be a factual statement" comment from 2011 to knock down Kyl's current shots at Democratic nominee. A recap of the past several days:

Democratic nominee Richard Carmona used the praise heaped on him by Arizona's Senators Kyl and John McCain when President Bush had nominated him for U.S. Surgeon General in an ad. Kyl and McCain - who both support GOP Rep. Jeff Flake (CD6) to be Kyl's replacement - were outraged and said Carmona had lost all credibility. Kyl shot back by saying that when he had recruited Carmona to run as a Republican for retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe's office, Carmona had been overly concerned about whether the job included a car and a house in D.C. Today, Carmona fired back, producing a praising letter from Kyl to Carmona earlier, when Kyl had apparently recruited Carmona to run for Governor against then-Gov-now-DHS-Secretary Janet Napolitano.

DeConcini - through the Carmona operation and the Politico website - publicized the letter, and said that Kyl's comments to conserative blogs (which found their way quickly into Arizona media) were "a factual statement." The comment plays on Kyl's imbroglio last year when his spokesman said Kyl's erroneous comments about Planned Parenthood "were not intended to be a factual statement".

--The League of Conservation Voters gave a major boost in its support to Richard Carmona, Democratic nominee in the Senatorial battle, funneling $105,000 to Terra Strategies - a consulting firm based in Iowa. This brings their pro-Carmona spending to more than $677,000.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

ArizonasPolitics.com NEEDS your help to keep track of all of those nasty campaign postcards (etc) that keep flooding your mailbox! We also would like to know which of those 30-second ads you're seeing on TV or hearing on the radio. SOOOOO, to get your help, we are holding a drawing for a $20 Gift Card for iTunes or Amazon to get your help!

5 entries: Scan both sides (or, all pages) of the postcard/mailer. Black out your name/address, but leave the city/Zip. Save it in *.jpg, *.png, or *gif formats. E-mail it to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com, with a subject line of "CAMPAIGN MAILER". Include your name (no last names will be used in the blog), e-mail address, and who you will vote for for President, U.S. Senate (Arizona), and Congress.5 bonus entries: If you are the first to e-mail that postcard/mailer and it is used in the blog.2 bonus entries: In the body of your e-mail, identify any portions of the mailer that you believe are false or misleading (and explain why).3 entries: Keep a log of all political ads you see or hear during a 24 hour period. Necessary information should be in this order: (1) date/time/station (2) name of person/group responsible for ad (3) who/what the ad was for or against (4) any info that identifies the ad from all of the other nasties running. For 1 bonus entry, provide a link to where the ad can be found on YouTube (or, elsewhere). Can send ad log once per day.1 entry: No purchase or e-mail with postcard or ad log is necessary to enter or win. Just e-mail your name, e-mail address and who you will vote for for President, U.S. Senate (Arizona), and Congress to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com.

Deadline to enter is 7:00pm (Arizona Time), Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Drawing will be held on Tuesday, November 13, and will be announced on ArizonasPolitics.com. Winner will also be notified by e-mail. Arizona'sPolitics.com reserves the right to disqualify any entry(ies) it deems to be inaccurate, or for any other reason.

Thank you very much for helping improve our news coverage of the election.

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Last night, Arizona's Politics reported on the new mailers being sent out by Governor Jan Brewer's SuperPAC, "Jan PAC", supporting Jonathan Paton in CD1 and Martha McSally in CD2. Six weeks earlier, one of the nation's leading payday lending companies helped underwrite a Dallas fundraiser for Governor Brewer and her eponymously-named PAC. The fundraiser raised exactly $35,000.00; the mailer in the Paton/Kirkpatrick race cost $35,567.15.

Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and Democratic groups have spent mightily to pin former state Senator Paton with the nickname "Payday Paton", because of his previous lobbying for payday lenders and for a ballot proposition (Prop. 200 in 2008) that would have maintained legalization of payday lending (the laws were sunsetting).

In the Jan PAC quarterly filing with the Federal Election Commission ("FEC"), the $2,500 contribution from "Cash America International" jumps out (page 8). Upon further inspection, it turns out that the lender - one of the top 5 payday lenders in the country - actually made an in-kind contribution, paying for food for the fundraiser (page 39).

Cash America International obviously does not have any payday lending outlets in Arizona, but does have a number of "Cash America Super Pawn" and "Mr. Payroll Check Cashing" locations around the state. They spend heavily on political contributions and lobbying at both the federal and state levels, and include both Republicans and Democrats in their plans.

Previous reporting on Jan PAC's contributions rightly focused on the enormous ($110,000) contribution from Copart, and upon contributions from other companies with possible business interests in supporting the Governor's funds. The September 7 Dallas fundraiser became more significant once Brewer decided to spend funds supporting Republican nominee Jonathan Paton (attacking Kirkpatrick); Paton's ties to payday lenders and the earlier campaign to prevent a ban of payday lending in Arizona have been repeatedly pushed by Democrats.

There is no evidence that Cash America International's (or John Perona's) fundraising support from Jan PAC came with an understanding that Brewer would come to Paton's defense. However, it is noteworthy, especially since the amount raised is very close to the amount spent on the pro-Paton/anti-Kirkpatrick mailer.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

I am all for third party (or fourth party, or...) candidates, and I have no problem casting a vote for one if our views align, if he or she is serious and/or if he or she is the best person for the office. That has happened in the past. Indisputably, our two-party system has serious flaws in it.

However, this is not the year for the third party candidate. Mike Stauffer has not made the case in his independent bid for Maricopa County Sheriff, Doug Quelland is not the answer in his state Senate race, and now Gary Johnson, Libertarian nominee for President, has shot himself in the foot.

At a debate broadcast on C-Span last night with several minor party candidates, Johnson made the strangest "vote for me" closing pitch. Watch it below, then I'll print the transcribed quote, just so you can make sure he really said what you thought he said

“Wasting your vote is voting for somebody that you don’t believe in. That’s wasting your vote. I’m asking everybody here, I’m asking everybody watching this nationwide to waste your vote on me.”When I read that quote, I just had to track down the video, to make sure it was not stripped out of context, or to see if he was grinning when he said it. Unfortunately, it was without irony, and he did not seem to notice that he just suggested that voters not believe in him, and THEN to vote for him. (Sure, I know what he meant by the first sentence. But, he should NOT have then tried to equate a vote for Johnson with a wasted vote.)

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer has used her SuperPAC to send out mailers supporting Republican Congressional candidate Martha McSally (CD2) and opposing Democratic candidate Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1). This comes less than two weeks after JanPAC made its first campaign independent expenditure against Kyrsten Sinema (CD9).

Monday, October 22, 2012

The Republicans chose Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake to deliver this week's national GOP Response to President Obama's weekly address, no doubt because he is locked in a key battle with Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.

Flake used "now that school's back in session" as the theme for his attack on Obama and the Democrats. That gave him the opportunity to give a shout out to the just-born first grandchild for him and his wife, Cheryl, and to bemoan the amount of government debt already saddling the newborn Aidan Jeff Flake.

However, perhaps most notable (especially juxtaposed next to the well-worn DSCC ad (below the jump) placing Rep. Flake's face on Arizona canyons), Flake cited the Adminstration's "regulatory overreaches" as a reason for our economic woes ("it is no wonder that the economy is struggling").

His number one example is that the Obama Administration is "locking up prime mining areas in Northern Arizona from responsible mining". That direct rebuttal of the DSCC's attack (and the DSCC ad) will be the subject of an upcoming Fact Check.

In the meantime, congratulations to the Flakes on the birth of their first grandchild - although I doubt that the Congressman will spend much time with the baby (and he is too young to bring out on the trail) during the next two weeks.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

The National Republican Senatorial Committee ("NRSC") is apparently test-driving a new line of attack on Democratic nominee Richard Carmona. As the race continues to veer into the negative, the NRSC has posted on their YouTube channel a 49-second video slamming the former U.S. Surgeon General for votes he made in the late '90's/early 2000's when he was on the Arizona Board of Medical Examiners.

Once Arizona's Politics is able to obtain (request has been made) and review the articles which the video relies upon, we will be better able to assess the validity of the allegations. Interestingly, as opposed to the accusations by Christine Beato, the Board allegations are being made by the NRSC and not Flake directly, and only on the internet rather than in the NRSC's currently-airing TV ads.

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(UPDATE, 3:38pm: Ms. Roberts has commented on this post, in the comments under her post; I hope that she will edit her post, whether or not it is published in tomorrow's paper.)

I often appreciate the work that Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts does, but she knows better. I am sure that she knows that Arpaio Campaign Manager Chad Willems is the President of Summit Consulting Group.

Yet, apparently in the interest of making her point about the large number of "undecideds" in the "poll", she lends credence to the poll itself. She does not note that it was almost as if Sheriff Joe himself called people up and asked whether they would vote for him or his opponent. She also does not take note of many of the other issues with the poll that our previous post addressed.

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The self-described "largest progressive group of veterans" is plunking down another (at least) $117,000 to attack Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-CD6) previous votes against the G.I. Bill and other veterans-related legislation.

The ad features a Chandler veteran (Steven Lopez) speaking to the camera and focuses solely on Flake's votes, even though Democratic nominee Richard Carmona is himself a veteran.

VoteVets.org says they are teaming up with the National Education Association to bring back the ad, and say that they are spending another $315,000. The filing with the Federal Election Commission only shows that they spent $117,012.50 yesterday, bringing their total to $281,162.50. (It also shows that the Flake-Carmona race is taking place in Indiana, a coding error that made it more difficult to find.)

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The news release from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's campaign screams "Sheriff Arpaio Has Commanding Lead for Re-Election". It cites two polls. The most recent - but, still conducted just before his ad accusing his Democratic opponent Paul Penzone of "hitting a woman" (see, Fact Check) hit the airwaves - was conducted by Summit Consulting Group ("Summit"). The President of Summit is Chad Willems. The very same Chad Willems who is Arpaio's Campaign Manager. So much for the appearance of an impartial poll.

Well-known newsman Al Hunt has a blog post on the International Herald Tribune (the global edition of the New York Times, according to its masthead) today, noting that Congressional campaigns are getting "positively negative." As Exhibit 1, he cites the Arizona Senatorial race between Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and former U.S. Surgeon General (and Democratic nominee) Richard Carmona, and the Flake ad airing Christine Beato allegations that Carmona had pounded on her door late at night.

He adds the Florida Connie Mack-Bill Nelson battle, as well as citing other senatorial campaigns in Wisconsin, Indiana and Connecticut.We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Yesterday was the third time in the past week that Rep. Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona sat down together for a discussion/debate. (Arizona Republic editorial board, KAET were the first two.) The discussion was predictably testy.

Here is the video, courtesy of KUAT:

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Monday, October 15, 2012

Perhaps the Wall Street Journal editorial writers were not watching the Arizona Senatorial primary as closely as others, but they cite Rep. Jeff Flake's recent actions and statements as evidence of "Flake's Flip Out."

It notes that candidates usually (as of late) allow outside groups to run these types of character-impugning charges, and wonders whether Flake thinks it is "merely payback."

The conclusion hits hard, even as it tries to soften the blow with a bit of its more-customary praise: "As Paul Ryan noted in last week's vice-presidential debate, "If you don't have a good record to run on, paint your opponent as someone people should run from. Make a big election about small ideas." But Mr. Flake has both a solid record and big ideas to run on, so why isn't he?"

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Sunday, October 14, 2012

After raising more than one-quarter of a million dollars, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's SuperPAC is finally spending a bit of it on campaigning. The eponymously-named Jan PAC, Brewer's own SuperPAC, spent $23,256.74 on Friday for a mail piece attacking former State Senator Kyrsten Sinema as she battles Vernon Parker for Arizona's new Congressional seat (CD9).

The Governor - and, her PAC - received much attention for the amount that JanPAC had raised, and how much was actually spent on buying copies of her book Scorpons For Breakfast, from Amazon (which helps keep up its rankings). So, this first campaign-related expenditure is noteworthy.

The onslaught of campaign advertising - the slew of spots - comes as early ballots are finding their way to mailboxes across the state. Of course, due to the competitive nature of several of the races - and the national attention they are receiving - we will likely continue to see this level (frequency) of messages. And, they will probably continue to be at this level (negativity) or below.

Thanks to Diana B.'s and a-friend-who-wishes-not-to-be-named, we have been able to compile quite a lengthy list of ads that have been flooding Phoenix airwaves (need some Tucson contributors!) over the past 36 hours.

We will post the list now, and will supplement throughout the day as we are able to find time to find and add the ads. The list is in order of number of spottings and (secondarily) chronological:

It has been another big (spending) day in Independent Expenditure ("IE") monies flowing (mostly) into Arizona. Under $1Million, though just barely. We'll recap here, and try to provide more detail in our "As Seen On TV" post.

-- The Democratic-philic House Majority PAC doubled down on its advertising against GOP nominee Martha McSally in CD2, spending $6,761.39 to produce a negative ad and $142,684.97 to air it. That pushed them over the $300,000 mark in that race.

--Conservative group Freedomworks spent $35,000 on "Voter ID" to support Rep. Jeff Flake in the Senate race. They have put boots on the ground in Arizona and have now spent over $611,000 in that race.

--The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ("DSCC") threw down another $454,243 on its ad putting Jeff Flake on the sides of rocks (very unlike Mt. Rushmore). The DSCC is approaching $1 Million in Arizona ($959,000).

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Here is the text of the ad, as transcribed by Arizona's Politics, with a description of the visuals in parentheses:

For years, Paul Penzone was the face of Silent Witness. (Black/white photo of Penzone, his name gets typed in.)
But, in 2003, Paul Penzone pushed his then-wife against a door, injuring her in front of their child. (Ominous photo of man at top of stairs with what looks like a saw in hand, woman below with black eye. Then, typed out quotes from Ms. Penzone's application for Order of Protection: "He was intimidating and terrifying me", "He pushed me into the door.")
He's tried to explain it away, but there's no excuse for hitting a woman. (Penzone photo, with police lights flashing.)
Now, the only silent witness is his ex-wife. (Photo of woman with head in hands.)
We deserve better than that. ("We deserve better than Paul Penzone. If you or a loved one has been the victim of domestic violence, call your local police.")

Here is a copy of the statement from the Arpaio campaign:

Here is a copy of the police report, which was also provided by the Arpaio campaign this afternoon. And, here is the portion of Susan Penzone's Petition For Order of Protection that was used by the Arpaio campaign:

There are several problems with Arpaio's powerful ad:
1) The basic details of the incident are very much in dispute. It was a he-said, she-said situation, no charges were filed, Paul Penzone was the one who called the police while his then-estranged wife said that she had started to but decided to talk with her attorneys first, she did not tell the officers that day about being "intimidat(ed) and terrif(ied)", the dueling Orders of Protection were quashed, the parties were awarded joint custody. This ad states the push as an adjudged fact, when it is far from that.
2) The powerful visual of the violent man and the towered-over woman with a black eye is an extremely prejudicial image and is unwarranted given the Penzone narrative.
3) Ad claims he had no excuse for "hitting a woman", but the alleged push is not the same. An exaggeration should not have been necessary.
4) Claiming the "only silent witness is his ex-wife" makes it appear that Susan (then) Penzone has somehow been silenced. She has not, although she did decline the New Times' request for a comment several months ago.
5) The final graphic about domestic violence is designed to add a public service announcement element to this negative ad. Clever, but also an exaggeration that implies that there was a verdict against Penzone.

Presenting a disputed and unadjudicated incident as fact - without indicating that there is doubt - is a problem. That is different than airing an opinion, which everyone should welcome. This is a candidate becoming a judge and jury, and finding serious and emotional accusations against an individual to be fact. The parties themselves and the legal system did not adjudicate the competing narratives and, thus, found them to be in dispute.

This misrepresentation is serious enough. But, to then exaggerate the accusations to make it even more dramatic was unnecessary, egregious and designed to inflame the new jury (i.e. the voters).

The ad concludes by saying that voters deserve better than Penzone. Voters deserve better ads than this. Arpaio earns a "D-" for this ad.

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Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio today began airing a tough new ad against his Democratic opponent Paul Penzone. Together with anti-Arpaio ads that have begun to air sporadically, it is sure to kick this campaign into a new, tougher phase.

The new ad raises the domestic violence incident that occurred between Penzone and his then-estranged (now, divorced) wife. The police report includes the he-said, she-said allegations. She said that he pushed her (which he denies), and he says that she smacked him with their child's hockey stick (which she said may have happened).

The new ad takes the she said and runs with it, and adds a few details that the police report did not include. It states that it happened in front of their then 10-year old, and the visual shows a much more extreme example of domestic violence.

Arpaio's campaign sent out to media a copy of the police report, the wife's application for an order of protection (which was quashed, along with husband's), and a statement. We will publish those shortly.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Monitoring the FEC (Federal Election Commission) can provide a little surprise here and there. Partly it is because of the forms that organizations need to complete and file electronically, they can be confusing.

Today's big surprise: the National Right to Life PAC filed today that it spent money on mailers in support of Arizona's Republican candidates for the U.S. House and Senate. Well, all except for Vernon Parker, the GOP nominee for CD9:

Certainly, that was a simple coding error, either at the NRTL PAC or at the FEC. But, there is no chance that that organization is telling its members to support Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema.

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(UPDATE, 3:00p,m.: Thanks to the NRSC for e-mailing me the link to their ad, now embedded in the article.)

On Friday, the baseball playoffs started. We all know how baseball keeps statistics on everything, and we know how rare a triple play is (three outs achieved in one play). In fact, there has only been one in Arizona since the Diamondbacks started play in 1998.

On Friday, there was a rare triple play in Arizona political advertising history, although we do not know how rare because statistics are not kept as fastidiously. However, having been involved with campaigns and the media for too long (long before SuperPACs geometrically increased the number of negative ads), I can guess that this may be a first.

Just before Jakob Dylan and The Wallflowers rocked David Letterman's show, KPHO (Ch.5 in Phoenix, CBS) had a local commercial break. After one anti-Kyrsten Sinema ad, there were three ads in a row from three different groups attacking the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Richard Carmona!

The conservative Club For Growth kicked things off:

The Republican nominee, Rep. Jeff Flake, was next:

The third play came from the National Republican Senatorial Committee:

Just as in a baseball triple play, some elements were out of the GOP's control. Channel 5's traffic department had a large part to play, and the timing of the three ad runs had to mesh. (It is a little surprising that it happened several days before the start of early voting, or election day.)

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Tuesday, October 9, 2012

The outside money pouring into Arizona is hitting flood levels as the voter registration deadline hits and early ballots will be going out soon. Arizona's Politics will try to keep an up-to-date register of the IE (Independent Expenditure) monies.

Oh, my. Hopefully, we can all see the humor in this surely-innocent reaction and the photo without getting all middle-school-humor and giggly and all. (Sure, there will be some folks who will be outraged, and some who will make stupid remarks, and others who would have done the opposite if it had been the Democratic candidate who could have been the butt of the jokes.)

There must have been some reaction, because the Associated Press felt it necessary to make a "caption addition" to clarify. Further, the 2nd shot provides further clarification.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Today was a big big-money filing day at the FEC (Federal Election Commission), and Arizona's tight Senate race received more than its share of attention. We already detailed the half-million dollar ad buys by the Club for Growth and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; now we end the day with a $261,000 ad buy from the Democrat-philic SuperPAC "Majority PAC".

The expenditure brings its total spending on the advertisement - attacking Rep. Jeff Flake (R-CD6) for his votes against a GI Bill and job training for veterans - to more than $400,000 ($405,036.02, to be exact).

Here's the ad:

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The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee filed with the FEC this afternoon that it has spent more than a half-million dollars on an ad attacking Rep. Jeff Flake's (R-CD6) record on women's issues, and urging women to vote for Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.

Just as we were beginning to wonder why the Club For Growth had not yet jumped into the general election battle for Arizona's seat in the U.S. Senate, the conservative powerhouse jumps in with both feet, with a $530,000 television ad buy attacking Democratic nominee Richard Carmona.

A quick check of FCC reports filed by two Phoenix TV stations (which have been especially good about filing their reports quickly) does not show the ad buy yet, but CFG has filed today with the FEC that the money was expended on Wednesday.

(Please let Arizona's Politics know if, when and where you see this ad. Not to mention sending us information about other ads you see, mailers you receive, etc. (News) tips from readers like you help make this blog more interesting.)

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Arizona Senator John McCain (R-AZ) completes (t)his interview tour of the three major cable news networks tonight, when he sits down with CNN's highest profile interviewer Piers Morgan. In a preview released by CNN this afternoon, he rips into the Obama Administration and Susan Rice (U.S.' Ambassador to the U.N.) for maintaining that the attack in Libya that took the lives of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans may have grown out of a demonstration of an anti-Muslim YouTube video, instead of a planned terrorist attack.

The rest of his video airs tonight at 6pm (Arizona Time) (and will be repeated later in the evening).

Here is a video of Susan Rice's comments on CBS' Face the Nation program on September 16. She notes that an investigation had begun, and leaves open the possibility that the evidence might show that it was more than spontaneous.

Very interestingly, the very next guest on that Face the Nation - in the same chair - was John McCain - he probably saw and/or spoke with Rice during the commercial break. However, when repeatedly given the opportunity to criticize Rice, he declined to mention her by name and broke off most of his criticisms of the Administration. He only repeated his complaints that the Obama Administration has made the U.S. the "weak horse" and has "disengaged."

McCain has seen some pretty hardcore things and comments in Washington in the past 25-plus years (and before), and some would say that he has said some pretty misleading things during that time. For this to be one of the worst sounds a bit like the-close-election-is-almost-here hyperbole. (One of the most hyperbolic statements I've heard in my entire life?)

***

Tonight's interview will complete his two-day tour of major programs on the three cable news/political networks. Yesterday, he hit "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, where "he warned Romney and the Republicans to "not underestimate President Obama" and attributed his debate performance to "rust".

Then, last night, he visited his frequent interviewer Greta Van Susteren on Fox News:Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

Thursday, October 4, 2012

(UPDATE, 10/6/12, 9:30am: After a lengthy check of Dreams From My Father, Arizona's Politics was unable to find any reference to the date that Barack and Michelle Obama were married.)

Welllll, since we are in debate mode, we could lead this by saying "Well, there you go again!" President Obama led off last night's debate by wishing his wife, Michelle, a Happy Anniversary. Both he and GOP nominee Mitt Romney made little jokes about celebrating it at a debate.

However, some Obama opponents are questioning whether the President has lied to the American people. (They would add the word "again".) They have uncovered cites showing that the 20th anniversary will not take place until October 18, meaning that he made a cynical and dishonest play for good feeling at the debate.

If you can read the initial post, he notes that the source is Obama's memoir, and thanks a California woman for pointing it out. I have not yet been able to verify that source, but did find that biography.com does use the October 18 date.

Fortunately, telling the truth about your wedding date (or, for some unsuccesful candidates, "wedding dates") is not a constitutional prerequisite for being President; otherwise, we would be reporting on a hastily-called Sheriff Arpaio news conference this afternoon.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

In a nutshell, nothing nefarious in PPP's using numbers from a question eliminating the Libertarian candidate from the choices, and the large number of Republicans in the poll may be an indication of turnout and/or good feelings about the GOP.

Thanks to Tom Jensen of PPP and Paul Bentz of High Ground.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

(UPDATE, 10/4/12, 11:15AM: Correcting High Ground's name and adding comments from High Ground VP Paul Bentz.)

(UPDATE, 10/4/12, 11:40am: Updated to include PPP's response to inquiry that it does NOT weight its polls for party affiliation.)

The new Public Policy Polling ("PPP") Arizona poll might help disprove the recent (national) Republican meme that mainstream polling outfits are overstating President Obama's support because they are under-sampling Republicans. Or, it might indicate that the GOP teeth-gnashing is having an effect on (some) pollsters.

(UPDATE: PPP's Tom Jensen told Arizona's Politics that it does not weight its polls for party, indicating that it was not reacting to conservative criticisms of recent polling.)

Of course, the third option is probably more likely: that polling pools often vary in their party affiliations, because pollsters do not control for that because party self-identification is a varying element that often is at odds with how people are actually registered. (Personal experience confirms this: my mother often told people she was a Democrat, and was very surprised when I told her that she was actually registered as an "R".)

(UPDATE: Paul Bentz, VP at High Ground, responded to Arizona's Politics inquiry by noting that PPP's poll "is interesting in that it does indeed oversample Republicans.Its not outside the realmof reason in its sampling, but it emulates the 2010 "tea party" turn out - not the 2008 and 2004 turnout."

He notes that the PPP poll, as well as High Ground's, confirm that the race is very close and that "it willbe critical for someone to grab the momentum in the next week coming up on Early Ballots.")

PPP confirmed to Arizona's Politics that "we do not weight our polls for party." As PPP does not do that, it is interesting that some 10% of the random pool would seem to identify as Republicans even though they may be registered differently. That is outside the 4% margin of error, and would seem to indicate that Arizonans are - currently - even more GOP-philic than the registration figures indicate.

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.

(UPDATE, 10/4/12, 11:40am: Added response from PPP's Tom Jensen regarding use of the 11% margin on the Presidential race, rather than the 9% margin.)

The trend may be in favor of Democratic candidate Richard Carmona for Arizona's open U.S. Senate seat. He leads Rep. Jeff Flake (R-CD6) by 45%-45%, well within the 4% margin of error. Public Policy Polling (PPP), a national company said to lean slightly Democratic, just concluded its most recent poll of Arizona voters.

Its previous polling on the race was only three weeks ago, and it had shown Flake up 44%-43%. That 3-point swing could constitute a "trend", or it could simply be because of the different pool sampled in each of the two polls.

Mitt Romney has opened a larger lead over President Barack Obama among the likely Arizona voters, opening up an 11-point margin, 52%-41%. (Inexplicably, PPP uses the 53%-44% numbers reflected when the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is not included in the question; he is on Arizona's ballot, and apparently draws more of his 4% support from Obama than Romney.)

(UPDATE: Tom Jensen of PPP tells Arizona's Politics that they used the question that did not include the Libertarian candidates because "historical precedent" indicates that Johnson will get "less than 1%"; therefore, they believe that the Obama-Romney question is "a better measure of the final outcome.")

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been an Arizona Diamondbacks' fan and regular special guest since the team came to town. With the Diamondbacks out of the playoffs and the Washington (DC) Nationals winning the 1st ever Division title for the nation's capital, it was perhaps inevitable that he would pop up at Nations Park.

But, to cut a video to be shown on the big screen at the Nationals' game? That hurts.

The Nationals have a nightly "race" for four big-headed ex-Presidents. (The Diamondbacks have similar in-game entertainment, featuring four well-known ex-Diamondbacks. By the way, could you imagine if we used four ex-Arizona Governors...?) The running joke in D.C. is that President Theodore Roosevelt has never been "able" to win the race.

So, leave it to big TR fan McCain to threaten "a full investigation by the U.S. Senate" into any possible shenanigans. (Hey, McCain has become involved in a few sports already!)

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There are still two home games left for the Diamondbacks. Will a 2nd McCain sobering-yet-rousing pep talk be in the cards?

Thanks to Politico for bringing this traitorous video to our attention. And, here's the video of last night's race, the results of McCain's exhortations. (I am sure he hopes Romney and other GOP candidates do not similarly fall on their faces!)

We welcome your comments about this post. Or, if you have something unrelated on your mind, please e-mail to info-at-arizonaspolitics-dot-com or call 602-799-7025. Thanks.