Monday, November 19, 2007

IR Poll

Innovative Research chimes in with their own poll, that gives the Conservatives a solid lead:

The poll found national support for the Conservatives at 36 per cent, 27 per cent for the Liberals, 16 per cent for the NDP, seven per cent for the Bloc Québécois, and six per cent for the Green Party.

The IR poll actually has the Conservatives up 2% from their last poll, using the same panel of voters. Obviously, these numbers don't jive with last week's barrage of polls, although the common theme of a Conservative voter ceiling is consistent.

The poll concentrates on the Mulroney affair, and the findings are fairly benign. People that would never vote Conservative anyways say the affair is a negative on Harper, supporters ignore it. The findings amount to a whole lot of nothing IMHO.

"The IR poll actually has the Conservatives up 2% from their last poll, using the same panel of voters."

Does this mean they used the same respondents as in the previous poll?

If so, that would mean this is a longitudinal poll and the numbers would make some sense and demonstrate the silliness of their methodology. Longitudinal surveys are best taken with long periods in between reference periods to allow for possibilities of opinion change. I am talking years. If the time between surveys is only weeks then you cannot expect much change from survey to survey. People are not THAT fickle.

I imagine that this poll is not longitudinal, so the 2% rise for the Conservatives is insignificant.