What does fastest mean for a world class sprint ?
Shows the
impacts of wind and altitude variables on world 100m sprint records and
elite performances, and considers the basis on which performances under
differing environmental conditions can
be compared.

IAAF rules for 100 m
sprinting do not recognise a record time if the wind assistance exceeds
2 m/s (a very gentle breeze), and flag it as altitude assisted
if run at a location above 1000 m altitude.

This page contains large tables - around 220K bytes of
data and 60 K bytes of graphics. You can start
reading while the balance loads...

How far should this recognition of the assistance or
hindrance of wind and altitude be taken ? When events are timed to 0.01
second precision, could records and outcomes be determined by climatic
conditions, or other chance events ? Is it fair to equate a time for
100 m race where the athlete had a 2m/s tailwind with one run into a 2
m/s headwind ? If not, how can events run in different climatic
conditions be compared ?

Physicist Jonas Mureika Ph D has proposed an approximate
model for adjusting times to account for the wind and altitude
variables. He has posted a list of best sub 9.90 second performances on
the sub-10 discussion forum to serve as an example for how performance
might be more fairly compared.

For further information on the correction see
"9.84
vs 9.84", J.R.Mureika, in Athletics: Canada's
National Track and Field / Running Magazine (December 1999) which is an
informal treatment of the correction. For a more detailed mathematical
treatment see "9.84 v 8.84", J. R. Mureika, and "The
Legality of Wind and Altitude Assisted Performances in the Sprints",
New Studies in Athletics (15) 3/4, 53-60 (2000) (published October
2001)).

The reader should also be aware of the imprecision of
the wind measurement, which is based on a reading from a single guage
over 10 seconds. See a discussion of this here

Do Mureika's methods produce results that make more
sense than the alternative of ignoring wind and altitude assistance
within the wide-span accepted presently by the IAAF ?

Just as a side note to Conway: TM *has* run sub-9.90
while winning. Even if you argue wind adjustments, his 9.78 still
qualifies. Like him or not, you can't factor Tim out of the all-time
top lists without contradictory statements.

I refuse to argue favorites here. To be honest, my
favorite sprinter of all time is probably Frank Fredericks, and I could
come up with a myriad of ways that he qualifies as the greatest ever.
However, the rationale would probably be flawed and contradictory at
some point...

JRM includes Ben Johnson - arguing that there are
probably other drug-affected performances that haven't been and won't
be expunged from the record books.

The table highlights the element of lucky wind
in Tim Montgomery's world record. At least on the basis of JRM's
assessment, Maurice Greene's performances are superior.

Figure 1 below is a scatter diagram showing the full
list of sub-10 second electronically timed runs (all-time best list
from IAAF's site as published May 24th 2003). The scatter of the wind
and altitude corrected performances is also plotted:

Figure 1 - Scatter Diagram of 100
m Sprints

The scatter diagram plots a magenta + against the date and time an IAAF recognised
sub-10 second performance was recorded. There is also a green x plotted for the corresponding
equivalent sea-level still wind time (i.e. altitude and wind corrected).

A magenta line connects the official world record
marks. The green line connects the best-ever
sea-level still wind equivalent performances.

Figure 1 shows World Records for Leroy Burrell in 91,
Carl Lewis in 91, and Donovan Bailey in 96 have only been achieved with
the assistance of wind and altitude.

After correcting for wind-and-alititude:

Maurice Greene's 99 world records would stand. Every other
world record had wind assistance that ranks it inferior to the
best wind-corrected run of the time.

Burrell's 94 run would have been a "wind-and-altitude" corrected
world record.

Fredericks in 96 and Ato Boldon in 98 would also have rated
as world records.

Calvin Smith's 3rd Jul 83 altitude wind assisted 9.93 world
record would not stand, but his 10.04 into 2.2 m headwind on
25th Aug 83 (at Bruxelles) would rate as a record (corrected
to 9.90)

Viktor Bryzgin's 1986 run of 10.03 secs into a 2.5m headwind
would have been a world record.

Until 2004, some statisticians
had categorized the wind reading for this run as doubtful. But
the IAAF records list published Dec 2003 has it as legal. It looks no
more or less suspicious than Smith's run

The sudden plunge in the world record line around 1991
is often attributed to the introduction of the Mondo synthetic tracks.
But after correcting for the wind and altitude, there is not such an
obvious effect - the plunge doesn't happen until Maurice Greene hits
his straps in 99.

The general pattern in Figure 1 shows that correcting
for wind and altitude results in an upwards shift in times (green x are mostly above corresponding
magenta +). Figure 1 also shows
that most elite performances occur in the Northern hemisphere summer
and autumn. A strong increase in sub-10 second runs can also be seen in
Figure 1 - but note that until 1995 the top-10 runs in any year were
not all under 10 seconds.

Data Table

The data Figure 1 is based on is also presented in Table
2 below and agrees with the list posted by JRM.

The data shows all runs officially timed at under 10 seconds
with a legal wind as published on IAAF web site at 20/12/2003.
Ben Johnson's performances have been excluded (as per IAAF site).
Viktor Bryzgin's 10.03 in 1986, Donovan Bailey's 10.03 in 1997
and Calvin Smith's 1983 10.04, all into strong headwinds, have
been included here because they adjust to times under 10 seconds.

In Table 2, the Raw Rank column is the rank as
per the IAAF statistics, using the officially clocked times. Wind is in
meters/sec, with positive value assisting the athlete. The Adjusted
Time and Adj Rank columns show times corrected for wind and
altitude using Mureika's back-of-the-envelope formula. The Up
column shows how many places up the ranking a performance is lifted by
the adjustment (negative values occur typcially where high assisting
winds result in a fall after adjustment). The Record Type column
shows a W for a world record performance, and an A if the adjusted time
would have been a world record (for either W or A, the whole row is
emphasised in bold font).

Also shown below is table 3 with the best 20
performances for each year from 1998 to 2002. One of the outstanding
features of this recent data is Maurice Greene's domination of the 100
m event in recent years.

Table 2 - Wind & Altitude Adjusted
All-Time Best 100 m
Rankings

AdjustedTime

Name

Venue

Date

RawTime

Wind

RawRank

AdjRank

Up

RecordType

9.80

Maurice Greene

Athína

16 06 1999

9.79

0.1

2

1

1

W&A

9.81

Maurice Greene

Sevilla

22 08 1999

9.8

0.2

3

2

1

9.83

Maurice Greene

Edmonton

05 08 2001

9.82

-0.2

4

3

1

9.84

Ato Boldon

Athína

17 06 1998

9.86

-0.4

11

4

7

A

9.85

Maurice Greene

Berlin

01 09 2000

9.86

-0.2

12

5

7

9.85

Bruny Surin

Sevilla

22 08 1999

9.84

0.2

5

6

-1

9.85

Maurice Greene

Sydney

23 09 2000

9.87

-0.3

19

7

12

9.86

Frank Fredericks

Lausanne

03 07 1996

9.86

-0.4

13

8

5

A

9.86

Tim Montgomery

Edmonton

05 08 2001

9.85

-0.2

8

9

-1

9.87

Viktor Bryzgin

Leningrad

07 06 1986

10.03

-2.5

286

10

276

A

9.87

Ato Boldon

Athína

16 06 1999

9.86

0.1

14

11

3

9.87

Maurice Greene

Athína

03 08 1997

9.86

0.2

15

12

3

9.88

Ato Boldon

Kuala Lumpur

17 09 1998

9.88

-0.1

26

13

13

9.88

Tim Montgomery

Paris

14 09 2002

9.78

2

1

14

-13

W

9.89

Maurice Greene

Osaka

13 05 2000

9.91

-0.4

46

15

31

9.89

Leroy Burrell

Barcelona

01 08 1992

9.97

-1.3

159

16

143

A

9.89

Donovan Bailey

Atlanta, GA

27 07 1996

9.84

0.7

6

17

-11

W

9.89

Donovan Bailey

Abbotsford

19 07 1997

10.03

-2.1

287

18

269

9.89

Maurice Greene

Athína

11 06 2001

9.91

-0.3

47

19

28

9.90

Maurice Greene

Roma

07 07 1999

9.85

0.8

9

20

-11

9.90

Calvin Smith

Bruxelles

26 08 1983

10.04

-2.2

294

21

273

A

9.90

Maurice Greene

Uniondale, NY

21 07 1998

9.96

-1

129

22

107

9.90

Maurice Greene

Sevilla

21 08 1999

9.91

-0.2

48

23

25

9.90

Michael Marsh

Walnut, CA

18 04 1992

9.93

-0.6

70

24

46

9.90

Linford Christie

Stuttgart

15 08 1993

9.87

0.3

20

25

-5

9.90

Maurice Greene

Zürich

11 08 2000

9.94

-1

87

26

61

9.90

Maurice Greene

Edmonton

04 08 2001

9.88

0

27

27

0

9.90

Ato Boldon

Lausanne

02 07 1999

9.86

0.4

16

28

-12

9.90

Ato Boldon

Atlanta, GA

27 07 1996

9.93

-0.6

71

29

42

9.91

Maurice Greene

Stockholm

30 07 1999

9.87

0.6

21

30

-9

9.91

Frank Fredericks

Athína

17 06 1998

9.93

-0.4

72

31

41

9.91

Frank Fredericks

Bruxelles

22 08 1997

9.9

0.2

34

32

2

9.92

Ato Boldon

Stuttgart

13 07 1997

9.9

0

35

33

2

9.92

Maurice Greene

Sevilla

22 08 1999

9.96

-0.7

130

34

96

9.92

Maurice Greene

Stockholm

05 08 1998

9.9

0.3

36

35

1

9.92

Obadele Thompson

Johannesburg

11 09 1998

9.87

-0.2

22

36

-14

9.92

Frank Fredericks

Atlanta, GA

27 07 1996

9.94

-0.5

88

37

51

9.92

Maurice Greene

Indianapolis, IN

13 06 1997

9.9

0.2

37

38

-1

9.92

Maurice Greene

Eugene, OR

21 06 2001

9.9

0.3

38

39

-1

9.92

Tim Montgomery

Zürich

16 08 2002

9.98

-1.3

198

40

158

9.92

Donovan Bailey

Athína

03 08 1997

9.91

0.2

49

41

8

9.92

Maurice Greene

Bruxelles

28 08 1998

9.94

-0.3

89

42

47

9.93

Carl Lewis

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.86

1.2

17

43

-26

W

9.93

Maurice Greene

Lausanne

25 08 1998

9.92

-0.3

56

44

12

9.93

Tim Montgomery

Bruxelles

30 08 2002

9.91

0.3

50

45

5

9.93

Davidson Ezinwa

Walnut, CA

18 04 1992

9.96

-0.6

131

46

85

9.93

Maurice Greene

Athína

03 08 1997

9.9

0.5

39

47

-8

9.93

Donovan Bailey

Lausanne

03 07 1996

9.93

-0.4

73

48

25

9.93

Tim Montgomery

Zürich

17 08 2001

9.9

0.2

40

49

-9

9.93

Obadele Thompso

Zürich

11 08 2000

9.97

-1

160

50

110

9.93

Maurice Greene

London

22 07 2001

9.98

-0.8

199

51

148

9.93

Leroy Burrell

Lausanne

06 07 1994

9.85

1.2

10

52

-42

W

9.93

Maurice Greene

Bruxelles

22 08 1997

9.92

0.2

57

53

4

9.94

Maurice Greene

London

07 08 1999

9.97

-0.6

161

54

107

9.94

Ato Boldon

Modesto, CA

10 05 1997

9.89

0.8

30

55

-25

9.94

Maurice Greene

Paris

06 07 2001

9.96

-0.4

132

56

76

9.94

Frank Fredericks

Atlanta, GA

27 07 1996

9.89

0.7

31

57

-26

9.94

Bruny Surin

Sevilla

21 08 1999

9.95

-0.2

111

58

53

9.94

Tim Montgomery

Indianapolis, IN

13 06 1997

9.92

0.2

58

59

-1

9.94

Ato Boldon

Lausanne

03 07 1996

9.94

-0.4

90

60

30

9.94

Maurice Greene

Roma

12 07 2002

9.89

0.9

32

61

-29

9.94

Bruny Surin

Sevilla

22 08 1999

9.96

-0.3

133

62

71

9.94

Ato Boldon

Atlanta, GA

26 07 1996

9.95

-0.3

112

63

49

9.94

Tim Montgomery

Edmonton

04 08 2001

9.92

0

59

64

-5

9.94

Ato Boldon

Athína

02 08 1997

9.87

1.3

23

65

-42

9.95

Seun Ogunkoya

Zürich

12 08 1998

9.96

-0.6

134

66

68

9.95

Leroy Burrell

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.88

1.2

28

67

-39

9.95

Maurice Greene

Berlin

01 09 1998

9.94

0.1

91

68

23

9.95

Seun Ogunkoya

Dakar

19 08 1998

9.94

0.1

92

69

23

9.95

Maurice Greene

Sacramento

14 07 2000

9.93

0.3

74

70

4

9.95

Donovan Bailey

Köln

24 08 1997

9.99

-0.7

225

71

154

9.95

Ato Boldon

Atlanta, GA

27 07 1996

9.9

0.7

41

72

-31

9.95

Tim Montgomery

Oslo

13 07 2001

9.84

2

7

73

-66

9.95

Jon Drummond

Berlin

01 09 2000

9.96

-0.2

135

74

61

9.95

Andre Cason

Stuttgart

15 08 1993

9.92

0.3

60

75

-15

9.95

Bernard Williams

Edmonton

05 08 2001

9.94

-0.2

93

76

17

9.95

Tim Montgomery

Athína

03 08 1997

9.94

0.2

94

77

17

9.95

Tim Montgomery

Bruxelles

22 08 1997

9.94

0.2

95

78

17

9.95

Maurice Greene

Osaka

12 05 2001

9.96

-0.1

136

79

57

9.95

Ato Boldon

Athína

11 06 2001

9.97

-0.3

162

80

82

9.96

Donovan Bailey

Luzern

27 06 2000

9.98

-0.7

200

81

119

9.96

Frank Fredericks

Kuala Lumpur

17 09 1998

9.96

-0.1

137

82

55

9.96

Ato Boldon

WALNUT, CA

19 04 1998

9.86

1.8

18

83

-65

9.96

Ato Boldon

Monaco

08 08 1998

9.92

0.7

61

84

-23

9.96

Frank Fredericks

Zürich

13 08 1997

9.98

-0.7

201

85

116

9.96

Maurice Greene

Sydney

28 02 1998

9.99

-0.5

226

86

140

9.96

Maurice Greene

Athína

10 06 2002

9.97

-0.2

163

87

76

9.96

Davidson Ezinwa

Linz

04 07 1994

9.94

0.2

96

88

8

9.96

Frank Fredericks

Athína

03 08 1997

9.93

0.5

75

89

-14

9.96

Dwain Chambers

München

07 08 2002

9.96

-0.3

138

90

48

9.96

Ato Boldon

Kuala Lumpur

17 09 1998

9.96

0

139

91

48

9.96

Tim Montgomery

Bruxelles

24 08 2001

9.96

0

140

92

48

9.96

Frank Fredericks

Athína

03 08 1997

9.95

0.2

113

93

20

9.97

Ato Boldon

Athína

16 06 1999

9.97

-0.1

164

94

70

9.97

Ato Boldon

Eugene, OR

01 06 1996

9.92

0.8

62

95

-33

9.97

Frank Fredericks

Oslo

09 07 1998

9.95

0.2

114

96

18

9.97

Seun Ogunkoya

Johannesburg

11 09 1998

9.92

-0.2

63

97

-34

9.97

Andre Cason

Stuttgart

14 08 1993

9.96

-0.1

141

98

43

9.97

Maurice Greene

Zürich

11 08 1999

9.99

-0.7

227

99

128

9.97

Maurice Greene

Zürich

13 08 1997

9.99

-0.7

228

100

128

9.97

Frank Fredericks

Helsinki

25 06 1996

9.87

1.9

24

101

-77

9.97

Andre Cason

Stuttgart

15 08 1993

9.94

0.3

97

102

-5

9.97

Frank Fredericks

Roma

14 07 1998

9.97

0

165

103

62

9.97

Ato Boldon

Sydney

23 09 2000

9.99

-0.3

229

104

125

9.97

Bruny Surin

Montréal

01 08 1998

9.89

1.5

33

105

-72

9.97

Bernard Williams

Edmonton

04 08 2001

9.95

0

115

106

9

9.97

Dennis Mitchell

Durham, NC

13 08 1994

9.94

0.5

98

107

-9

9.97

Jon Drummond

Indianapolis, IN

12 06 1997

9.92

0.8

64

108

-44

9.97

Maurice Greene

Athína

02 08 1997

9.9

1.3

42

109

-67

9.97

Melvin Lattany

Athens, GA

05 05 1984

9.96

0.1

142

110

32

9.97

Maurice Greene

Lausanne

02 07 1999

9.93

0.4

76

111

-35

9.97

Maurice Greene

Lausanne

02 07 1997

9.9

1

43

112

-69

9.98

Maurice Greene

Monaco

19 07 2002

9.97

0.1

166

113

53

9.98

Dwain Chambers

Paris

14 09 2002

9.87

2

25

114

-89

9.98

Dennis Mitchell

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.91

1.2

51

115

-64

9.98

Frank Fredericks

Dakar

19 08 1998

9.97

0.1

167

116

51

9.98

Bruny Surin

Athína

16 06 1999

9.97

0.1

168

117

51

9.98

Maurice Greene

Oslo

09 07 1998

9.96

0.2

143

118

25

9.98

Donovan Bailey

Nürnberg

13 06 1997

9.94

0.5

99

119

-20

9.98

Ato Boldon

Stockholm

05 08 1998

9.96

0.3

144

120

24

9.98

Maurice Greene

Lausanne

04 07 2001

9.9

1.1

44

121

-77

9.98

Bernard Williams

Eugene, OR

21 06 2001

9.96

0.3

145

122

23

9.98

Donovan Bailey

Montréal

21 06 1996

9.98

0

202

123

79

9.98

Dwain Chambers

Sevilla

22 08 1999

9.97

0.2

169

124

45

9.98

Jon Drummond

Atlanta, GA

14 06 1996

9.99

-0.3

230

125

105

9.98

Frank Fredericks

Kuala Lumpur

17 09 1998

9.98

0

203

126

77

9.98

Donovan Bailey

Montréal

15 07 1995

9.91

1.3

52

127

-75

9.98

Leroy Burrell

Lausanne

10 07 1991

9.96

0

146

128

18

9.98

Carl Lewis

Seoul

24 09 1988

9.92

1.1

65

129

-64

W

9.98

Jon Drummond

Atlanta, GA

15 06 1996

9.98

-0.1

204

130

74

9.99

Frank Fredericks

Lausanne

02 07 1997

9.91

1

53

131

-78

9.99

Ato Boldon

Stockholm

07 07 1997

9.95

0.6

116

132

-16

9.99

Leroy Burrell

Houston, TX

16 06 1989

9.94

0.8

100

133

-33

9.99

Linford Christie

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.92

1.2

66

134

-68

9.99

Carl Lewis

Roma

30 08 1987

9.93

1

77

135

-58

9.99

Jon Drummond

Berlin

01 09 1998

9.98

0.1

205

136

69

9.99

Frank Fredericks

Windhoek

13 04 2002

9.94

-0.2

101

137

-36

9.99

Tim Harden

Luzern

05 07 1999

9.92

1

67

138

-71

9.99

Dennis Mitchell

Atlanta, GA

15 06 1996

9.92

1.1

68

139

-71

9.99

Bruny Surin

Nürnberg

13 06 1999

9.92

1.1

69

140

-71

9.99

Ato Boldon

Oslo

13 07 2001

9.88

2

29

141

-112

9.99

Frank Fredericks

Villeneuve-d'Ascq

29 06 1997

9.95

0.7

117

142

-25

9.99

Dennis Mitchell

Linz

04 07 1994

9.97

0.2

170

143

27

9.99

Ato Boldon

Roma

14 07 1998

9.99

0

231

144

87

9.99

Ato Boldon

Edmonton

05 08 2001

9.98

-0.2

206

145

61

9.99

Carl Lewis

Indianapolis, IN

15 07 1988

9.96

0.4

147

146

1

9.99

Tim Montgomery

Roma

12 07 2002

9.94

0.9

102

147

-45

9.99

Donovan Bailey

Vancouver

18 05 1997

9.99

0

232

148

84

9.99

Dwain Chambers

Edmonton

04 08 2001

9.97

0

171

149

22

9.99

Mark Lewis-Francis

Edmonton

04 08 2001

9.97

0

172

150

22

9.99

Dennis Mitchell

Milano

07 09 1996

9.91

1.5

54

151

-97

9.99

Maurice Greene

New Orleans, LA

19 06 1998

9.96

0.6

148

152

-4

10.00

Deji Aliu

Abuja

12 10 2003

9.95

0.6

118

153

-35

10.00

Bernard Williams

Monaco

19 07 2002

9.99

0.1

233

154

79

10.00

Obadele Thompson

Stockholm

30 07 1999

9.96

0.6

149

155

-6

10.00

Vincent Henderson

Leverkusen

09 08 1998

9.95

0.8

119

156

-37

10.00

Ato Boldon

Berlin

01 09 1998

9.99

0.1

234

157

77

10.00

Steve Riddick

Zürich

20 08 1975

10.05

-1.2

304

158

146

A

10.00

Frank Fredericks

Atlanta, GA

26 07 1996

9.93

1.1

78

159

-81

10.00

Donovan Bailey

Monaco

08 08 1998

9.96

0.7

150

160

-10

10.00

Kim Collins

Manchester

27 07 2002

9.98

0.2

207

161

46

10.00

Davidson Ezinwa

Linz

04 07 1994

9.98

0.2

208

162

46

10.00

Leroy Burrell

Villeneuve-d'Ascq

29 06 1990

9.96

0.7

151

163

-12

10.00

Leroy Burrell

New York, NY

14 06 1991

9.9

1.9

45

164

-119

W

10.00

Dwain Chambers

Edmonton

05 08 2001

9.99

-0.2

235

165

70

10.00

Carl Lewis

Los Angeles, CA

04 08 1984

9.99

0.2

236

166

70

10.00

Leroy Burrell

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.94

1.1

103

167

-64

10.00

Carl Lewis

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.93

1.3

79

168

-89

10.01

Ato Boldon

WALNUT, CA

21 04 1996

9.93

1.3

80

169

-89

10.01

Carl Lewis

Seoul

24 09 1988

9.97

0.6

173

170

3

10.01

Carl Lewis

Zürich

17 08 1988

9.93

1.1

81

171

-90

10.01

Coby Miller

Durham, NC

02 06 2000

9.98

0.4

209

172

37

10.01

Frank Fredericks

Berlin

26 08 1997

9.99

0.3

237

173

64

10.01

Dwain Chambers

London

23 08 2002

9.98

0.5

210

174

36

10.01

Darrel Brown

Paris

24 08 2003

10.01

0

274

175

99

10.01

Maurice Greene

Roma

30 06 2000

9.97

0.7

174

176

-2

10.01

Daniel Effiong

Stuttgart

15 08 1993

9.98

0.3

211

177

34

10.01

Linford Christie

Victoria, B.C.

23 08 1994

9.91

1.9

55

178

-123

10.01

Frank Fredericks

Saint-Denis

03 06 1996

9.95

1.1

120

179

-59

10.01

Frank Fredericks

Sydney

20 02 1999

9.94

1.3

104

180

-76

10.01

Tim Montgomery

Monaco

16 08 1997

9.99

0.4

238

181

57

10.01

Donovan Bailey

Montréal

01 08 1998

9.93

1.5

82

182

-100

10.01

Kareem Streete -Thompson

Indianapolis, IN

12 06 1997

9.96

0.8

152

183

-31

10.01

Maurice Greene

Paris

05 07 2002

9.99

0.4

239

184

55

10.01

Tim Montgomery

Pretoria

12 04 2002

9.94

0.6

105

185

-80

10.02

Uchenna Emedolu

Abuja

12 10 2003

9.97

0.6

175

186

-11

10.02

Francis Obikwelu

Berlin

31 08 2001

9.98

0.6

212

187

25

10.02

Linford Christie

Barcelona

01 08 1992

9.96

1

153

188

-35

10.02

Maurice Greene

Carson, CA

01 06 2003

9.94

1.4

106

189

-83

10.02

Frank Fredericks

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.95

1.2

121

190

-69

10.02

Bernard Williams

Durham, NC

02 06 2000

9.99

0.4

240

191

49

10.02

Brian Lewis

Cayenne

04 05 2002

9.99

0.5

241

192

49

10.02

Frank Fredericks

Athína

02 08 1997

9.99

0.5

242

193

49

10.02

Dennis Mitchell

Stuttgart

15 08 1993

9.99

0.3

243

194

49

10.02

Dennis Mitchell

Stockholm

12 07 1994

9.97

0.9

176

195

-19

10.02

Dennis Mitchell

Atlanta, GA

15 06 1996

9.98

0.6

213

196

17

10.02

Jon Drummond

Durham, NC

13 08 1994

9.99

0.5

244

197

47

10.03

Jason Gardener

Lausanne

02 07 1999

9.98

0.4

214

198

16

10.03

Ato Boldon

Lausanne

05 07 2000

9.95

1

122

199

-77

10.03

Matthew Shirvington

Kuala Lumpur

17 09 1998

10.03

-0.1

288

200

88

10.03

Michael Marsh

WALNUT, CA

21 04 1996

9.95

1.3

123

201

-78

10.03

Patrick Johnson

Mito

05 05 2003

9.93

1.8

83

202

-119

10.03

Donovan Bailey

Göteborg

06 08 1995

9.97

1

177

203

-26

10.03

Raymond Stewart

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.96

1.2

154

204

-50

10.03

Maurice Greene

Palo Alto, CA

21 06 2002

9.99

0.7

245

205

40

10.03

Raymond Stewart

Waco, TX

20 05 1989

9.97

1

178

206

-28

10.03

Tim Montgomery

Zürich

16 08 2002

9.93

1.6

84

207

-123

10.03

Carl Lewis

New York, NY

14 06 1991

9.93

1.9

85

208

-123

10.03

Linford Christie

Stuttgart

15 08 1993

9.97

0.9

179

209

-30

10.03

Linford Christie

Johannesburg

23 09 1995

9.97

0.1

180

210

-30

10.03

Linford Christie

Seoul

24 09 1988

9.97

1.1

181

211

-30

10.04

Donovan Bailey

Milano

07 09 1996

9.95

1.5

124

212

-88

10.04

Jim Hines

Ciudad de México

14 10 1968

9.95

0.3

125

213

-88

W

10.04

Shawn Crawford

Osaka

11 05 2002

9.94

1.8

107

214

-107

10.04

Frank Fredericks

Johannesburg

27 03 1998

9.96

0.4

155

215

-60

10.04

Frank Fredericks

Kingston, JAM

19 09 1997

9.97

1.2

182

216

-34

10.04

Ato Boldon

Stuttgart

06 06 1999

9.97

1

183

217

-34

10.04

Dennis Mitchell

Atlanta, GA

27 07 1996

9.99

0.7

246

218

28

10.04

Dwain Chambers

Zürich

16 08 2002

9.94

1.6

108

219

-111

10.04

Jon Drummond

New Orleans, LA

19 06 1998

9.94

1.9

109

220

-111

10.04

Olapade Adeniken

Austin, TX

04 04 1992

9.97

1.2

184

221

-37

10.04

Donovan Bailey

Baton Rouge, LA

22 04 1995

9.99

0.9

247

222

25

10.04

Bruny Surin

Montréal

15 06 1995

9.97

1.3

185

223

-38

10.05

Innocent Asonze

Enugu

26 04 1997

10.04

0

295

224

71

10.05

Donovan Bailey

Lausanne

02 07 1997

9.97

1

186

225

-39

10.05

Francis Obikwelu

Lausanne

05 07 2000

9.97

1

187

226

-39

10.05

Dennis Mitchell

Oslo

22 07 1994

9.94

1.9

110

227

-117

10.05

Jeff Williams

Atlanta, GA

14 06 1996

10.02

0.3

278

228

50

10.05

Frank Fredericks

Villeneuve-d'Ascq

25 05 1996

9.99

1

248

229

19

10.05

Tim Montgomery

Osaka

11 05 2002

9.95

1.8

126

230

-104

10.05

Calvin Smith

Zürich

17 08 1988

9.97

1.1

188

231

-43

10.05

Leonard Myles-Mills

Johannesburg

15 09 1999

9.99

0

249

232

17

10.05

Maurice Greene

Indianapolis, IN

12 06 1997

9.96

1.5

156

233

-77

10.05

Joshua J. Johnson

Walnut, CA

21 04 2002

9.95

1.8

127

234

-107

10.05

Seun Ogunkoya

Formia

13 07 1997

9.97

1.5

189

235

-46

10.05

Dennis Mitchell

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.99

1.1

250

236

14

10.05

Linford Christie

Tokyo

25 08 1991

9.99

1.1

251

237

14

10.05

Calvin Smith

Colorado Springs, CO

03 07 1983

9.93

1.4

86

238

-152

W

10.05

Carl Lewis

Modesto, CA

14 05 1983

9.97

1.5

190

239

-49

10.05

Tim Montgomery

Indianapolis, IN

12 06 1997

9.96

1.6

157

240

-83

10.05

Calvin Smith

Seoul

24 09 1988

9.99

1.1

252

241

11

10.06

Hasely Crawford

Montréal

24 07 1976

10.06

-0.1

310

242

68

10.06

Jeff Laynes

Tempe, AZ

06 04 1996

10.01

0.6

275

243

32

10.06

Joe DeLoach

Eugene, OR

04 06 1988

10.03

0.4

289

244

45

10.06

John Capel

Zürich

15 08 2003

9.97

1.3

191

245

-54

10.06

Justin Gatlin

Zürich

15 08 2003

9.97

1.3

192

246

-54

10.06

Chidi Imoh

Berlin

15 08 1986

10

1

268

247

21

10.06

Carl Lewis

Zürich

22 08 1984

9.99

0.9

253

248

5

10.06

Coby Miller

Portland

18 05 2002

9.98

1.4

215

249

-34

10.06

Percival Spencer

Kingston

20 06 1997

9.98

1.4

216

250

-34

10.06

Tim Montgomery

Athína

02 08 1997

9.99

1.2

254

251

3

10.06

Dwain Chambers

Nürnberg

13 06 1999

9.99

1.1

255

252

3

10.06

Daniel Sangouma

Villeneuve-d'Ascq

29 06 1990

10.02

0.7

279

253

26

10.06

Silvio Leonard

Guadalajara

11 08 1977

9.98

0.6

217

254

-37

10.06

Darren Campbell

Budapest

19 08 1998

10.04

0.3

296

255

41

10.06

Carl Lewis

Houston, TX

06 05 1984

9.99

1.3

256

256

0

10.07

Sunday Emmanuel

Enugu

26 04 1997

10.06

0

311

257

54

10.07

Shawn Crawford

Pretoria

12 04 2002

9.99

0.6

257

258

-1

10.07

Olapade Adeniken

Austin, TX

05 06 1992

9.97

1.7

193

259

-66

10.07

Asafa Powell

Bruxelles

05 09 2003

10.02

0.8

280

260

20

10.07

Carl Lewis

Modesto, CA

11 05 1985

9.98

1.6

218

261

-43

10.07

Emmit King

Tampa, FL

17 06 1988

10.04

0.5

297

262

35

10.07

Carl Lewis

Seoul

23 09 1988

9.99

1.4

258

263

-5

10.07

Ato Boldon

Lausanne

04 07 2001

9.99

1.1

259

264

-5

10.07

Eric Nkansah

Nürnberg

13 06 1999

10

1.1

269

265

4

10.07

Daniel Effiong

Odessa, TX

21 05 1993

9.99

1

260

266

-6

10.07

Calvin Smith

Zürich

24 08 1983

9.97

1.6

194

267

-73

10.07

Aziz Zakari

Linz

20 08 2001

10.04

0.4

298

268

30

10.07

Terrence Trammell

Durham, NC

02 06 2000

10.04

0.5

299

269

30

10.07

Andre Cason

Knoxville, TN

15 06 1994

9.98

1.6

219

270

-51

10.08

Davidson Ezinwa

Lausanne

06 07 1994

9.99

1.2

261

271

-10

10.08

Dennis Mitchell

Lausanne

06 07 1994

9.99

1.2

262

272

-10

10.08

Andre Cason

Koblenz

11 09 1991

9.99

1.5

263

273

-10

10.08

Vladislav Dologodi

Kyiv

17 05 1996

10.02

0.9

281

274

7

10.08

Jon Drummond

Paris

14 09 2002

9.97

2

195

275

-80

10.08

Linford Christie

Victoria, B.C.

23 08 1994

9.98

1.8

220

276

-56

10.08

Andrés Simón

La Habana

01 08 1987

10.06

0.3

312

277

35

10.08

Frank Fredericks

Athína

17 06 1998

9.97

2

196

278

-82

10.08

James Sanford

Westwood, CA

11 05 1980

10.02

1

282

279

3

10.08

Olapade Adeniken

El Paso, TX

16 04 1994

9.95

1.9

128

280

-152

10.08

Kim Collins

Zürich

16 08 2002

9.98

1.6

221

281

-60

10.08

Jon Drummond

Rieti

28 08 1994

9.99

1.5

264

282

-18

10.08

Michael Marsh

Indianapolis, IN

12 06 1997

9.97

2

197

283

-86

10.09

Leroy Burrell

Sestriere

08 08 1990

9.96

1.2

158

284

-126

10.09

Kostyantyn Rurak

Kyiv

17 05 1996

10.03

0.9

290

285

5

10.09

Mickey Grimes

Zürich

15 08 2003

9.99

1.5

265

286

-21

10.09

Kim Collins

Paris

14 09 2002

9.98

2

222

287

-65

10.09

Leonard Myles-Mills

Boise

05 06 1999

9.98

1.6

223

288

-65

10.09

Francis Obikwelu

Braga

21 06 2000

9.98

2

224

289

-65

10.10

Jon Drummond

Oslo

22 07 1994

9.99

1.9

266

290

-24

10.10

Darvis Patton

Zürich

15 08 2003

10

1.5

270

291

-21

10.10

Bernard Williams

Oslo

13 07 2001

9.99

2

267

292

-25

10.10

Nicolas Macrozonaris

Ciudad de México

03 05 2003

10.03

0

291

293

-2

10.10

Koji Ito

Bangkok

13 12 1998

10

1.9

271

294

-23

10.11

Christopher Williams

Kingston, JAM

21 07 2000

10.05

1

305

295

10

10.11

Marian Woronin

Warszawa

09 06 1984

10

2

272

296

-24

10.12

André Domingos

Bogota

25 06 1999

10.06

0.9

313

297

16

10.12

Michael Green

Knoxville, TN

11 04 1997

10.02

1.7

283

298

-15

10.12

Pietro Mennea

Ciudad de México

04 09 1979

10.01

0.9

276

299

-23

10.12

Bob Hayes

Tokyo

15 10 1964

10.06

1.1

314

300

14

10.13

Lennox Miller

Ciudad de México

14 10 1968

10.04

0.3

300

301

-1

10.13

Shingo Suetsugu

Mito

05 05 2003

10.03

1.8

292

302

-10

10.13

Leonard Scott

Eugene, OR

31 05 2001

10.05

1.4

306

303

3

10.13

Nobuharu Asahara

Oslo

13 07 2001

10.02

2

284

304

-20

10.13

Patrick Williams

Modesto, CA

05 05 1990

10.06

1.3

315

305

10

10.14

Kenny Brokenburr

Indianapolis, IN

12 06 1997

10.04

1.6

301

306

-5

10.14

Osmond Ezinwa

Milano

07 09 1996

10.05

1.5

307

307

0

10.14

Mark Whiterspoon

San Jose, CA

27 06 1987

10.04

1.8

302

308

-6

10.14

Robson Caetano da Silva

Ciudad de México

22 07 1988

10

1.6

273

309

-36

10.14

Bode Osagiobare

El Paso, TX

16 04 1994

10.01

1.9

277

310

-33

10.14

Jonathan Carter

New Orleans, LA

19 06 1998

10.04

1.9

303

311

-8

10.15

Harvey Glance

Tampa, FL

30 03 1985

10.05

1.8

308

312

-4

10.16

Terrrance Bowen

Fresno, CA

01 04 1995

10.06

1.7

316

313

3

10.16

Tony McCall

Durham, NC

08 04 2000

10.06

1.8

317

314

3

10.16

Ron Brown

Zürich

24 08 1983

10.06

1.6

318

315

3

10.16

Kaaron Conwright

Flagstaff, AZ

08 07 2000

10.05

1

309

316

-7

10.16

Stanley Floyd

Provo, UT

05 06 1982

10.03

1.9

293

317

-24

10.17

Frank Emmelman

Berlin

22 09 1985

10.06

1.9

319

318

1

10.17

Charles Greene

Ciudad de México

13 10 1968

10.02

2

285

319

-34

10.18

Rodney Lewis

Knoxville, TN

15 06 1994

10.06

2

320

320

0

10.19

Leandro Peńalver

Caracas

24 08 1983

10.06

2

321

321

0

10.21

Johan Rossouw

Johannesburg

23 04 1988

10.06

2

322

322

0

There is a clear bias in Table 2 towards tailwinds - 75% of runs
have a tailwind, with the average wind measurement being 0.65m/s
tailwind (standard deviation is 0.8 m/s, 50% of runs have above
0.5 m/s wind assist). There is a similar bias in the altitude
- average is 314 m (standard deviation 417 m, 50% of runs are
above 110m altitude). All the precision in the timing clocks is
not matched by precision in other important determinants of performance.

Table 3 below gives the top 10 and top 20 performances for each
of the last six years, including a count of how many times each
athlete appears in the top 20 of that year. This count shows how
dominant each individual was in a particular year. In many cases,
the dominant performer benefits from the adjustment for performances
in difficult climatic conditioins (his bad times weren't his off-days,
but rather off-days for the weather or location).

In all, there are 21 instances (5 in 2003 alone), where the correction
for Wind and Altitude lifts a performance into the top 10, and
25 where a performance is lifted into the top 20 (5 just in 2003).

The adjusted rankings also puts Tim Montgomery's world
record into context. It was clearly the best performance of the year,
but with a maximum legal tailwind of 2 m/s it neither matches his nor
Maurice Greene's best from the previous year.

100m Sprint Prediction
considers
trends in world record times over the period 1912 - 2002, and suggests
a limit is being reached in the performance improvements possible in
the 100 m sprint. Over that time period, technology and training
methods have changed considerably. Would focussing on a shorter
time-frame tell anything different ?

Even
looking at just 10 years still includes some uncontrollable variation -
particularly in relation to the impact of tighter drug testing.
Nevertheless, the trend of the top 10 and top 20 averages is revealing:

Figure
2 - Annual Average of Top Performances

Caveat: The data for this graph is from a post by Optimist
on the Charlie
Francis discussion forum, and the source for it is not credited
there. Checking against the IAAF online statistics (as reported above)
for the last 5 years does not reveal any errors

Taking optimists data at face value, there is a
suggestion
of almost a bottoming-out of the averages of the best performances
around 1996 to 1998. A fit of three models is presented to test what is
happening: a straight line, a logistic curve, and a quadratic curve.

Statistically,
the straight line fit is not particularly good (correlation coefficient
of 0.245) for the Average of the Top 10 performances. The Mean Square
Error is approximately 0.020 seconds - or 28% of the difference between
the maximum and minimum values. Similarly poor correlation and MSE is
also evident in the Top 20 averages. The straight line reaches an
average time of zero seconds in 1850 years - and although that's a long
time away, such a prediction is clearly flawed.

A
logistic equation is a marginally better fit (correlation coefficient
of 0.343), and suggests the Top 10 average is trending down to a limit
of 9.88 seconds. "Marginally" means there is a 42% chance that the
straight line is correct (odds are only slightly towards the logistic
equation fit).

The
notable one-sided errors since 1998 suggests a u-shaped trend may describe
the situation better. Statistical observations are one thing, but it's nice to
support them with some further explanation of the underlying process.

What happened in 1998 that could explain the up-turn ?
Perhaps the
sentinel event was the revelation of widespread EPO doping by cyclists
in the 1998 Tour-De-France, after customs officials discovered large
quantities in support team luggage. After the huge embarassment from
adverse publicity over this, a crackdown on EPO and other drug abuse
was kicked off - culminating in the formation of the World Anti-Doping
Agency. Initiatives such as out-of-competition testing of athletes were
gradually introduced. Even though EPO is thought to be beneficial
mostly in endurance events (rather than short-duration sprinting), the
crackdown included steroids and many other agents used to avoid
detection of banned substances. It's not hard to see there might be a
causal relationship between restrictions on drug use and poorer sprint
performances.

Changes to the break-rule and further extensions of
out-of-competition drug-testing could exacerbate such an upward trend
in the future. To test if a u-shape trend is occurring, a quadratic fit
was also tried - and is marginally better than the logistic
(marginally: there is a 39% chance the logistic is correct compared to
quadratic).

The
quadratic fit, however, produces unpleasing results if projected back
or forward in time (and a cubic polynomial fit is even more unrealistic
outside the 1991-2002 interval, even though it has the best statistical
fit):

Figure 3 - Projecting Annual Average Models

If data prior to 1990 were available, a
fit that might allow better discrimination between the straight line,
logistic and quadratic would be possible.

In the absence of more data, it is
difficult to conclude from the Top 10 or Top 20 averages that there is
or is not a limit to the improvement in 100 m sprinting. There is
slightly more than a 50/50 chance that there is a limit (either by
interpreting the logistic or quadratic as the better fit).

What can be said confidently is that the
trend in the averages for the last 10 years does not contradict the
suggestion of a limit shown in the 80 year+ time-frame logistic fit.

Some of the scatter in Figure 2 above can
be explained by Wind and Altitude effects on performance. Using IAAF statistics
for the last 5 complete years, Figure 4 shows the effect of correcting
for wind and altitude to sea-level still wind conditions. The
correction used is Jonas
Mereika's
Back-of-The-Envelope formula.

This makes it clearer still that there is
an upward trend in average times evident from the last 6 years. If you
focus on
just the last 6 year averages (see Figure 3 below), you might readily
believe that 100 m sprint winning times will continue to increase in the near
future.

It wouldn't be smart to bet on fast times for the 2004 Athens Olympics.