How low can solar prices go? GTM predicts under $15/MWh in 2022

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A new analysis from Greentech Media (GTM) Research estimates solar bids becoming as cheap as $14.07/MWh through 2022, assuming a perfect storm of desirable financing and technology advances.

While that is an extremely low and aspirational price in today's market, the report warns that the rate of cost declines is beginning to slow, particularly in more mature markets. But rapid declines will still likely be seen in developing areas.

The addition of storage is also helping bring down solar prices in some areas. In January, Xcel Energy received a median bid price of $21/MWh for wind-plus-storage projects and $36/MWh for solar-plus-storage projects. That beat out the $45/MWh price for a solar-plus-storage project hit last year in a PPA between Tucson Electric Power and NextEra Energy.

In March, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said costs to install utility-scale solar systems declined 10% to 15% annually from 2010 through 2016. But just how long can prices continue falling?

Solar analyst Ben Attia told Greentech Media that "highly competitive tenders will see cost compression, and there is still room for costs to fall further, but there isn’t as much breathing room on the leading edge."