Michigan

Examining the Tigers: Can they stay in first place?

MINNEAPOLIS -- The Detroit Tigers are going to be in first place on the Fourth of July, but will they reside atop the standings at season's end?

Let's look at the top five reasons why the Tigers have been in first place since May 10, but why they might not be come Oct. 4.

Reasons why Detroit could miss the playoffs:

1. Inconsistent offense wastes good pitching and defense

Miguel Cabrera is the only regular hitting over .275, and Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco, Gerald Laird and the slumping Marcus Thames have not produced close to expectations. Laird, though, is swinging a good bat of late.

2. Ordonez's struggles at the plate

Ordonez is worthy of being his own separate reason because Polanco and Laird contribute great defense and Thames has missed much of the season.

The 2007 league batting champion, who hit .317 last year, is batting just .260 and is on pace to hit six homers with 50 RBIs. His bat speed is in the slow lane, and he has hit .167 since returning June 23 from a four-game break to hopefully get recharged.

The Tigers have to seriously consider releasing him before his $18 million for next year becomes guaranteed by either plate appearances or starts criteria.

He hit .476 against the Twins last year, and the three-game series starting tonight in Minnesota would be a great time to pop out of a slump a la Big Papi.

3. Reversal of good fortune for closer Fernando Rodney

Rodney is perfect in 17 save situations, but lives on the edge so much he might as well be a cliff diver. He gets himself out of some terrible jams and deserves credit for what he has accomplished. But what happens when and if the odds begin catching up with Rodney?

A drop in the standings is what would happen.

4. Back-of-the-rotation instability

Armando Galarraga has been much better lately, but still has not displayed the consistency of last year. Will left-handed Luke French, making his first big league start tonight, be the answer at the No. 5 spot? Alfredo Figaro?

Do you have any confidence that Dontrelle Willis or Jeremy Bonderman will return from the disabled list this season and turn in quality starts?

5. Brandon Inge's health

The tendinitis in third baseman Inge's knees intensifies and causes him to lose considerable fielding range and or playing time.

Reasons why Detroit is in first place:

1. Inge, the team's MVP

Inge is on pace for 37 homers and 108 RBIs, which would surpass his previous best totals of 27 homers and 83 RBIs.

And, in a recent Sports Illustrated player poll, he was selected the fourth-best fielder in baseball.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland moving him back to third base and the hitting adjustments Inge made have been huge.

2. Front-end-of-the-rotation excellence

If Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski does not trade young outfielder Matt Joyce, now at Triple-A Durham, to the Tampa Bay Rays for Edwin Jackson, the Tigers would not be in first place. He is 6-4 and his 2.49 ERA is among the lowest in the league.

Justin Verlander regained his form under the tutelage of new pitching coach Rick Knapp, who has had a big impact on the entire staff. And rookie Rick Porcello, 20, has stepped up beyond even his high expectations to match Verlander with eight wins.

3. Significantly upgraded defense

Shortstop Adam Everett, the unsung hero of this club, has not only tightened up the infield defense but provided clutch hitting and a strong clubhouse presence.

Laird has done it all behind the plate, while first baseman Miguel Cabrera has become dazzling with the glove and remained a force offensively (.331, 16 homers, 47 RBIs). Center fielder Curtis Granderson has made big catches and is on pace for 37 homers and 89 RBIs.

4. Important bench contributions

Ryan Raburn, Josh Anderson, Don Kelly and even Clete Thomas, now at Toledo, helped pick up the slack left by left fielder Carlos Guillen's injury absence and Ordonez's slump. And utility infielder Ramon Santiago has provided big hits and solid defense up the middle.

Raburn's bat has been big, while Anderson's speed and defense have been welcome additions. Kelly is becoming a versatile, left-handed-hitting version of Raburn.

5. Bullpen success

Rodney might scare Tigers fans, but he is on pace for 35 saves. Southpaw Bobby Seay is the glue to the late innings, and Brandon Lyon is beginning to get the kind of results that were anticipated when he was signed as a free agent in the off-season. Zach Miner supplies versatility and quality.