TV networks and movie studios are
engaged in the programming equivalent of stocking up on canned goods in case the
big one hits. The big one would be a strike, which looks a lot more likely now
that the Writer's Guild of America (WGA), the union that represents 12,000 film
and TV writers, voted this week by a margin of more than 90% to authorize their
leaders to launch a walk-out when their contract expires at the end of this
month. The last WGA strike in 1988 cost the industry an estimated $500 million.
This time, "every producer, network and studio has a contingency plan based on
an Oct. 31 deadline," says Barbara Brogliatti, spokeswoman for the Alliance of
Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). "The screens will not go
black."

Screens may not dim, but first TV and then the movies will look different if the
two parties can't come closer together. The deal-breaker in the negotiations
between the WGA and AMPTP is new media content. Those pithy webisodes of The
Office and Battlestar Galactica? Someone wrote them, and wants to get
paid when you play them on your iPod. In order to avoid a strike, said WGA West
President Patric M. Verrone in a statement, "What we must have is a contract
that gives us the ability to keep up with the financial success of this
ever-expanding global industry." AMPTP says new media is still too new, and
revenue is too unpredictable to set up a compensation package that resembles the
one used for TV shows, in which writers get paid every time their rerun of
Golden Girls airs.

No network or studio executive wanted to be quoted about specific strike plans,
citing a desire to keep strategy a secret from the competition. But industry
folks did share a broad idea of what to expect.

On TV, almost immediately, topical shows would look different. By December,
viewers would have to find alternatives to some of their favorite scripted
shows. Such as:

1) A heavy dose of reality and game shows: Imagine, if you will, a scenario in
which Ryan Seacrest and Drew Carey spend even more hours a week on television.
Unscripted shows like FOX's American Idol and CBS's The Price is
Right will fill up schedule holes much the way TV newsmagazines did during
the last writers' strike. That's how Hard Copy came about.

2) Late-night ad libs: Jay Leno and David Letterman have been through this
before. They ended up curtailing their monologues and, in Letterman's case,
resorting to a Top Two List. But Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert haven't had to
do without their crack writing teams. Expect minimal monologues from all
funnymen, and maximal celebrity interviews.

3) The British Invasion: The major U.S. networks may look more like BBC America
as content from abroad fills the void. The U.K. version of The Office,
with Ricky Gervais, is an obvious substitute for Steve Carell's NBC version. And
Footballers' Wives would do for ABC's Desperate Housewives in a
pinch.

4) Developing newbies: Normally this time of year, struggling new shows are
fighting to stay on the air. But newcomers like CBS' Cane, FOX's
K-Ville and ABC's Big Shots will have longer to build an audience
because networks won't be able to ramp up production on a mid-season replacement
in a strike. This may not be a bad thing. Patience launched
Seinfeld.

5) Reruns: Remember those things networks used to put on air in the summer in
the olden days, before Dancing With the Stars was invented? They may
resort to them again, giving us all a chance to finally figure out what's
happening on Lost.

Because the production cycle for films is longer than TV, it would take a much
longer time to see the impact of a strike at movie theaters. In fact, the
multiplex wouldn't even begin to show signs of wear until 2009:

1) Mass immigration: International writers aren't covered by the WGA, so studios
would say si to more foreign films. And A-list foreign-language directors
like Pedro Almodovar, Guillermo del Toro and Ang Lee would become the industry's
go-to guys.

2) More bad movies get a shot: Weak, stockpiled movies that might have gone
straight to DVD would get a theatrical release. Finally, good news for fans of
the American Pie sequels.

3) Doc stocks: More documentaries, the movie equivalent of reality programming,
would make it to the big screen. Maybe even someone besides Michael Moore could
make some money off them.

4) Theaters go live: One trend already underway, live cultural and sports events
showing at movie theaters, could get a boost. After all, nothing says date night
like catching The Magic Flute at the mall.