Right now, you can throw the models and even the NHC forecast out.. Noel is doing it's own thing and may just may get into the Western Carribean and closer to that Anticyclone! If it were to still get booted, it would weaken due to the very high shear to the north and east. However, the Anticyclone is trying to meet up with Noel and it could act as a shear shield.. which all means that Noel even in 50 knots of shear may just continue to grow IF it moves north. If it gets to the Western carribean, then the uh ohs come into play. Noel is making for a very difficult day today for us stormtrackers.

Not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but avid watcher. Answering your question-I would say slim to none on a hurricane in S FL. Models are exteremly accurate with a storm staying withinin the cone of error out 3 days, forget about the OFCl track as evidenced by Charley at the last minute. But even Charley was within the cone. I would say if you are not in the three day cone you are out of harms way.

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I want to ask a very basic "newbie/ignoramus" question here: from the NHC projections I assume that there is some event (cold/dry front?) which is supposed to do two things tomorrow night:

1) weaken Noel back to a TS
2) push it in a Northeastern direction

How confident are the knowledgeable forum members that this will actually occur? How much uncertainty, if any, is there over this? What are the chances of this *not* happening (and, thus a CAT1 heading for Florida)?

Noel turning a little more west was not what the NHC expected, but with that said a turn to the north and then northeast is probably in the works. Over central Florida since Saturday we've had a boundary disect the state. Winds where I am are strong out of the northeast. Those northeast winds extend down into south Florida which says any system coming towards Florida will be pushed off to the northeast instead of striking Florida.

As some have said as well, WV shows upper level winds northeast down through Cuba and the western Carribean. Unless this thing does the totally unexpected, Noel should get going northeast and away from Florida and the united States.

I would expect south east Florida will be in the cone on the next track update.It is STILL heading west and right now the cone is just barely off shore.Down here the winds are coming from the east unlike further north.

Craig...just remember, the cone is one of those "subject to change without notice" items. It depends on two things.....one is what the models are FORCASTING for the storm to do and the other is what the storm is ACTUALLY doing. When those two conflict you get shifts and changes in the cone. Already it has flipped east, then west, now back east a bit....if the storm keeps moving west, the cone will also move west. Just cause you are not in the cone NOW, doesn't mean that those areas just outside the cone can't be in it by 5pm today. Those in SE Florida better not let their guards down and would be prudent to check up on storm supplies and such.....the cry for them should be "REMEMBER Wilma!!!:.

--------------------If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2

Whats probably going to happen is Noels LLC will weaken more over land and this afternoon a new center over water to the NE of him will take over. This generally happens with weakening systems with a LLC with the movement inline with the LLF over land while most of the moisture over water will develop a new LLC. Now if the moisture was mostly overland with the LLC then it generally stays intact.

I feel for the people at the NHC,this is a tough one.First it was not going to be a cane then it was and now were back to no cane.It was forcast to turn north yesterday and still has not.I would think at this point they are pulling their hair out.

thats what they said about Cleo if I remember... a once proud dangerous storm (which this never was) would come off of Cuba as a weak storm and not be much to worry on... however it made it back up to a good strength and did damage

different storm, different time of year

but the galleys of october storms and more so november storms are filled with storms that wouldn't play by the rules as the rules this year are hard to find and are prone to quick changes (fronts strengthen, fronts fizzle out, fronts go stationary)

glad we aren't talking H but wouldn't throw it away completely

work with what you got and see where the storm is when it comes off of Cuba
also hard to predict from past history

The mid level isn't completely decoupled, if it were it wouldn't generally be following the Low Level Circulation, but it could at any time the way it's going. The Low Level still has a pretty good chance of making it back in to the Caribbean west of the position.

The midlevel can take over tonight..we dont know yet..but 1 thing is happening and thats the LLC is getting pulled more W due to the weak ULL to its S and the MLL off to the NE is having also a weak flow out of the NE. Overall the models are slightly more W again with the 12Z runs...now we are looking at a system getting near 80W for sure....but when does the turn NE happen? 24N? 25N? or will the shortwave trough be amplified more for more due to alittle more ridging over the SE and this system getting to 81-82W....(though not quite as far as the clipper) but make this go into Florida bay? Today and tonight will be interesting to see how far west this gets and how fast and shape of the ridge affecting the shortwave coming into the NW Gulf.

Thank you. Excellent pointing graphically... I see now what you mean. I thought that was just banding.. didn't realize or see well it was the center (I think) and if it is going WEST AT 12 that would make sense.

Would also make sense there should be some back to the drawing board on this one, a lot to think on..

Noel's weakened a bit, but it's still moving west, although slowing down, so it may start to turning before the day is up.

A few people were asking me about the MLC off the North Coast of Cuba, not much will happen there, the true center over Cuba is much too strong right now for the center to reform up that way. The true center has a lot of good banding at the low levels.

This is a sheared system, and it looks like it'll run up against a "wall" soon and then it will be forced more northward.

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