I read the other day that if you're a Steeler fan, you are rooting hard for the Denver Broncos this week against the Bengals. I originally thought it wasn't imperative who won that game, but a closer look shows a Bengals win eliminates us from the playoffs (unless every other AFC team finishes 8-8 or worse). Here's why:

Under the NFL tiebreaker rules, you must first break ties within your division before comparing records with other conference teams. So if the Bengals win, the worst they can finish is 9-7. If that happens, they beat us in a tiebreaker based on common games, 8-4 to 7-5.

So if for instance the Steelers, Bengals and Chiefs all end the year 9-7, the Bengals are the #5 - they beat us in common games, then go head-to-head with KC, whom they beat based on conference record. You would think that once the Bengals got in, we would get in based on our win over KC, but that's not the case. Even though the Bengals would already qualify for the playoffs, in order to break the tie for #6, you go back to the beginning and include ALL the 9-7 teams, and do it again.

So the Bengals eliminate us, they get in, and the Chiefs get the #6 because they are the only team that is
still alive for a post-season spot.

It's a little unfair from that point of view, but those are the rules. The Giants are facing the same fate if the Eagles beat Dallas but lose to Atlanta, and Falcons also beat Carolina this week. At 9-7, the Eagles get out of the NFC East over the Giants, but the Falcons get in based on beating the Eagles, even though the Giants beat the Falcons.

So the only way we are still alive after Sunday is if the Broncos beat the Bengals, which gives us the chance to jump over them in Week 17, 9-7 to 8-8.

Does a Jax win knocks us out?

Hburg

12-21-2006, 02:54 PM

From Troyisabeast43's post I thought that if the Bengals win it would help us. I'm confused now.

BuFu

Steelerlyn

12-21-2006, 03:09 PM

Yeah I am too because I just heard the opposite, also:

From the tie-breaking procedures at nfl.com:

"When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is
repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the
highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.
In situations where three or more teams from the same division are
involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains
the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-
ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth."

If only one team from a division could get in (as you suggest), there
would be no need to go back to the division tie-breaker. The wording
*is* a little confusing, but I believe they mean to say "eliminate
all but the highest-ranked REMAINING club in each division...".

So if Cincinnati gets #5, I believe the Steelers would still be alive
for #6.

This is confusing Chris (Troy) help!

Steelersfan

12-21-2006, 03:13 PM

That's what I was thinking too Lyn. Why would they have a team already in eliminate another team trying to get in? Makes no sense. The way this is going right now there could be a bunch of tie breakers for the 2 wild card spots.

BlitzburghRockCity

12-21-2006, 03:35 PM

I'm just going to wait and read all this again tonight becuz it makes my head hurt ! All I know is we need to win this weekend !

AZ_Steeler

12-21-2006, 03:38 PM

I think I'll just wait until after this weekend to find out where the Steelers are :smh:

I can't keep up with it all! :D Go Steelers though!!! :cope:

Troyisabeast_43

12-21-2006, 04:07 PM

Your absolutely right Lynn and Steelers Fan there is no way that Cincy can eliminate us from being the 6 seed like AZ said if they already have clinched the 5th seed which is basically what they will do if they would beat the Broncos on Sunday in Denver. The whole process starts completely over again when it involves another seed so what you read there wherever it was about a Cincy win knocking us out is wrong totally. The key game on Sunday is the Jags Pats game. If the Jags win then it forces Denver to beat Cincy otherwise if both Cincy and Jags win we are out. If the Jags lose then it doesnt matter who wins the Bengals Broncos game because there will be a scenario next week in which the Steelers can finish in a 3 way tie with the Broncos Chiefs and themselves and get in at 9-7 because the Chiefs would knock out the Broncos for us. KC MUST beat Oakland on Saturday night as well so they have a chance to finish at 9-7 if they beat the Jags next week. The Jets also must lose Monday night in Miami as well because that would guarantee if the Steelers finish at 9-7 with them that they lose the tiebraker to the Steelers based on common opponents. The winner of the Bills and Titans game will need to lose next week too but thats not a big issue as of yet. The main games to keep an eye on this week really are KC and Oakland Saturday night and the Jags and Pats Sunday both will set up for who we need to root for at 4 o clock in that Denver Cincy game. But again if the Jags do beat the Patriots on Sunday the Steelers will not be officially eliminated but you can probably turn out the lights once and for all. The JAGS MUST LOSE TO PATS.

AZ_Steeler

12-21-2006, 04:10 PM

Luckily for us Brady was snubbed for the Pro Bowl so he's going to pissed and take it out on Jacksonville :D

Blitzburgh55

12-21-2006, 04:11 PM

If the broncos win we cant pass them

Rabidfan

12-21-2006, 05:59 PM

Sorry to be the bringer of bad news but if you're relying on the Browncos to help you, you're screwed, especially when Rudi runs for a bunch and Palmer passes for a bunch.

AZ_Steeler

12-21-2006, 06:09 PM

Sorry to be the bringer of bad news but if you're relying on the Browncos to help you, you're screwed, especially when Rudi runs for a bunch and Palmer passes for a bunch.

The "Browncos"??? :scratch: Not sure if you are trying to be funny or not but the last I checked the Broncos had a pretty good defense and considering there is a whole lot of snow in Denver I don't see the Bungholes doing anything good at all!!

Troyisabeast_43

12-21-2006, 06:16 PM

Yes we still can pass Denver if they beat Cincy. They would need to lose the following week to the 49ers in Denver to make them finish at 9-7. Now keep in mind this can only happen as long as Kansas City beats the Raiders Saturday night and wins their last game against the Jags and they finish at 9-7 as well. As I said before the Chiefs would knock out Denver for us if both finish at 9-7 because they would break the tie in the division first. Lets just say the Jags beat the Pats this week and lose to the Chiefs the last week,and the Jets lose to Miami and beat the Raiders and the Steelers win out like we want them too. Then there would be a 4 way tie at 9-7 between the Steelers,Chiefs,Jags,and Jets and I dont know which 2 of those 4 would go then it would be very complicated and I am gonna have to look into that just incase it would happen because its not insane or totally out of the question that that scenario I mentioned of a 4 way tie cant take place.

Troyisabeast_43

12-21-2006, 06:28 PM

Here are some ways we can get eliminated this week and next week even if we do win both of our remaining games I just figured it out so here goes :

IF Cincy wins, Jax wins and Tn loses : PGH is out.

IF Den wins, Jax wins, KC loses, TN loses : PGH is out

Cincy plays Denver, so unless they tie one of the above comes into play.

A Cincy wins means that they will finish ahead of PGH no matter what. I don't think Cincy necessarily clinches a spot with a win, but they will quarentee they are ahead of Pittsburgh in the line for a playoff spot.

If both Jax and TN finish 9-7, TN wins the division on div record and finishes 2nd. This gives Pit a chance, as they hold the tiebread edge over TN, but not over Jax.

Looking ahead.

IF Tn loses one game, and Jax beat KC in the last week: Pit is out

IF Cincy wins one and either the Jets or Bills win 2 : Pit is out

IF Jax wins one, and the Bills win 2 , Pit is out.

If Jax wins one, NYJ wins 2 and Tn loses one, Pit is out,

If Den wins 2, and either NYJ or Buff wins 2, Pit is out.

there are others ways.....

Troyisabeast_43

12-21-2006, 06:39 PM

Here is a more clearer scenario based on the games the teams we need to win or lose have to play the last 2 weeks so here goes :

Perfectly stated. This makes the most sense of all the scenario posts.

House of Steel

12-21-2006, 11:32 PM

Now, I know your a damn Who Dey fan. GET OUT OF HERE!!! :lol:

BengalBrian

12-21-2006, 11:52 PM

If the 2nd coming of christ occurs, you will make the playoffs.. Oh yea.. and the Jags have to lose.. lol

Its a longshot guys.. I seriously doubt its happening.. It so hard to even figure out what needs to happen. Finishing with a 9-7 and knocking our chances to hell would leave you a very respected team at the end of the year though...

BlitzburghRockCity

12-22-2006, 12:07 AM

Yeah we know the chances of it happening are a long shot even though the actual scenarios that would have to unfold are more makeable than one might think, it's so many that have to happen it's just mind boggling...but either way yes, 9-7 and playing spoiler to you guys and knocking down the ratbirds a notch would make this season bearable for us.

floodcitygirl

12-22-2006, 12:28 AM

My plan is to just cheer my head off for the next two weeks and hope that we come out with wins. If we make it to the playoffs after that.....it's icing! :tt02:

Troyisabeast_43

12-22-2006, 01:00 AM

If you had to tell me bet 100 dollars on one of two things happening within the next 2-3 weeks the Steelers making the playoffs out of all these scenarios or the Bengals winning a playoff game this year Ill take the Steelers making the playoffs and run with it. If the Bengals do happen to get one of those 2 wildcard spots they will be one and done no matter where they have to go the first wild card game. Its absolutely insane to say that the this years Bengals like some people in the media have been saying that this Bengals are last years version of the Steelers Super Bowl team. Well they were actually making a pretty good case of that until Monday night when they got their asses handed to them by Peyton Manning and that Colts offense and that Colts defense. The Bengals have already lost to alll 4 of the playoff teams in the AFC San Diego,Indy,Baltimore and New England. Again, if they do happen to get in they arent going anywhere with that defense or that team period because the facts are the Bengals are just not that good of a football team.

Black@Gold Forever32

12-22-2006, 01:31 AM

If the 2nd coming of christ occurs, you will make the playoffs.. Oh yea.. and the Jags have to lose.. lol

Its a longshot guys.. I seriously doubt its happening.. It so hard to even figure out what needs to happen. Finishing with a 9-7 and knocking our chances to hell would leave you a very respected team at the end of the year though...

Brian don't burst my bubble bro.lol I'm still keeping the faith.:tt02: Granted that when the Ravens shut out the Steelers 27-0 a few weeks ago I never thought the Steelers would still be in the hunt.

SteelerFan87

12-22-2006, 09:18 PM

As far as I'm concerned, it's a win win situation.

If we get to the playoffs, we get to laugh at the rest of the NFL (especially the bengals) because we'd have proven that we can practically take half the year off, and still make the playoffs.

If we don't get in, coming up just short like this due to our own mistakes will certainly motivate the Steelers to go out and kick people's asses next year.

BBG7

12-22-2006, 09:46 PM

Scenerio 2 can still happen if Cincy wins...but we still have 4 more to chose from if they lose. The link I posted in another thread goes through every one of the scenerios, importance of games, etc....

In '89 (I think) we needed a lot more to go our way and we got every little thing we needed. This is not that far fetched that we may still make the playoffs.

BlitzburghRockCity

12-22-2006, 10:12 PM

As far as I'm concerned, it's a win win situation.

If we get to the playoffs, we get to laugh at the rest of the NFL (especially the bengals) because we'd have proven that we can practically take half the year off, and still make the playoffs.

If we don't get in, coming up just short like this due to our own mistakes will certainly motivate the Steelers to go out and kick people's asses next year.

Absolutely, the motivation for next year should be out the wazoo !!! No matter what happens this year, everybody on this roster knows we have a team that can play with anybody if we eliminate the mistakes like we had in the first half.

SteelersWoman

12-23-2006, 02:37 AM

I read the other day that if you're a Steeler fan, you are rooting hard for the Denver Broncos this week against the Bengals. I originally thought it wasn't imperative who won that game...

If you have a good mind that can keep things straight (which I don't :lol: ) there's another thread posted on here that gives a link that explains like 5 different scenarios. In some the Broncos win, in some they lose. So either way, we still have a chance depending on what happens with other teams :greengrin: