Sunday, October 18, 2015

Staunton, October 18 – Moscow has
largely forgotten about Transdniestria recently, a Russian analyst says, a
reflection of Russia’s problems elsewhere. But the geopolitical role of that
breakaway republic and its significance for Russian civilization are so large
that continuing neglect could have “catastrophic” consequences for Russia as a
whole “already next year.”

In emotional language, Aleksandr
Sergey of the Caucasus Geopolitical Club, a group which appears to have close
ties to the Kremlin, argues that Moscow must act and act quickly in order to
prevent a collapse in the breakaway Moldovan republic, an indication some in
Moscow are in fact focusing on Transdniestria (.kavkazgeoclub.ru/content/rossiya-spasi-pridnestrove).

Because that could have enormous security
implications not only for Moldova but also Ukraine, Sergeyev’s argument about
the nature of problems there, the ways they could affect Russia are especially
noteworthy, and what steps Moscow should take are particularly noteworthy.

The economic situation in
Transdniestria, Sergeyev says, is “balanced over a deep abyss.” As of the start
of 2016, the breakaway republic will lose the chance to export to EU countries;
and given that nearly “100 percent blockade” on the Ukrainian border, that will
lead to “an economic catastrophe with all ensuing social consequences.”

Transdniestria’s
military-political situation, between two hostile states, is “not better,” he
continues.As a result, the population
of the breakaway republic is “ever more strongly subjected to fear which is
gradually being transformed into widespread social frustration.”That too has political consequences.In addition, the Ukrainian
Maidan and the economic crisis in Russia have led to a sharp decline in the
standard of living of people in Transdniestria.Wages and pensions have been but by 30 percent, and many people are
angry. Indeed, he continues, such “unpopular measures” have lowered the status
of the government.

Next year, there are
elections for both the parliament and the president, and those could become the
occasions for destabilization in Transdniestria., especially if there are new
threats from Moldova or Ukraine. A combination of these could become “explosive”
and create a situation that could easily “get out of control.”

Sergeyev says that the
current government in Transdniestria has made a number of serious mistakes. Its
propaganda work has been especially weak.As a result, it often loses at home to propaganda efforts from abroad
and even against those at home who might otherwise be inclined to work with it.

To cope with this
situation, the Russian analyst says that Moscow elites and civil society
leaders need to pursue the following goals:

·First,
they must pursue “the gradual legal recognition of the Transdniestria Moldovan
republic and the creation of the necessary conditions for this,” including the
establishment of an air corridor with the Eurasian Union.

·Second,
they must allow Transdniestria businesses to work in the Russian economic space
on an equal basis with Russian ones.

·Third,
Moscow must communicate to Russian elites that Transdniestria is “vitally
important” for them and that they cannot afford to lose it.

·Seventh,
Moscow must give Transdniestria residents access to Russian scientific, cultural
and educational institutions on an equal basis with Russians.

·Eighth,
Moscow must prepare the necessary legal arguments for Transdniestria’s
acquisition of international legal status by arguing for the continuing
legitimacy of the Molotov-Ribbentrop secret protocols, thus undermining Moldova’s
claims and by raising issues of the “acts of genocide” against the
Transdniestria population in 1992 in international forums.

Even if all these things are done, Sergeyev says,
there will still be problems, but they will be sufficient to ward of the
catastrophe that appears likely to emerge early next year.