.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA...TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM
MONTANA TO EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WEAK ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHWEST GULF. SURFACE PATTERN CONTINUE TO
SHOW A 1020MB HIGH OVER CAROLINAS WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WEST TO TEXAS. PW PLOTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...SHV AND JAN ARE
ABOVE 2.1 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO REAL INHIBITORS/WARM LAYERS ALOFT AND
SURFACE HEATING TO YIELD CAPE VALUES AROUND 2 TO 3KJ/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH
EASE EACH DAY. WINDS AT 7H WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
TODAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS THURSDAY. ALL POINTS CAME IN
WITH CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BUT STORM TOTAL PRECIP REVEALED HIGHSCATTERED COVERAGE YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELYPOPS FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY...A TAD UNDER CAT. THE UPPER LEVELRIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST GULF...ALLOWING THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE TO POOL FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. ERGO...NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHER
COVERAGE AND HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE PRECIP ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE 7 DAY TOTALS GREATEST SOUTH OF THE LAKE AROUND 3 INCHES AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INLAND 3 TO 4 INCHES. NORTHWEST ZONES MAY
EXPERIENCE GENERAL TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT THIS AREA HAS ONLY
RECEIVED GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LAST 7 DAYS. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF NORMS. 18

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING TO THE NORTH...A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN THE MAINTROUGH OVER PLAINS THURSDAY AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOISTURE. FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WILL CARRY HIGHER
THAN NORM NIGHT TIME RAIN CHANCES. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS AND A SLOW-MOVING FRONT MAY YIELD A GOOD COVERAGE OF 1
INCH...POSSIBLE 2. THIS COULD CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ON TOP OF THE
SPOTTY 1...2 OR 3 INCHES THAT HAVE OCCURRED OR WILL OCCUR FROM NOW
TO FRIDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS PROBLEM IN HWO. WILL DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
STARTING TO SEE THE CONDITIONS FALLING AT KMCB WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING AROUND 08Z...SHOULD FALL TO IFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR...BUT DO EXPECT ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO END AROUND 14Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAYTIME SCENARIO TODAY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
AT KMSY AND KGPT...AND TOWARD MIDDAY AT KBTR AND KMCB. WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND TOWARD SUNSET. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OUTSIDE OFCONVECTION. SEAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE SUBSIDED INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 3 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OFCONVECTION. 35

.SHORT TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD GET PRETTY GOOD RAIN FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA FRI NIGHT. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE DRIER FOR THE BETTER
PART OF A WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...LOOK FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA
DURING THE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...PWS ABV
2"...AND H85 THETA E VALUES OF 340K. EVEN WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP TODAY. MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE EARLY THEN OUTFLOW BNDRYS LATER.
ISLTD CONVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL START TO SPREAD NWRD THROUGH THE MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BETTER TOMORROW FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. FIRST THE
FRONT WILL BE CLOSING IN/PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENHANCED LL CONVERGENCE/FORCING. AT THE SAME TIME THE ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN LEADING TO NW FLOW DRIVING A
FEW IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING THE MID LVL HGHTS. THESE
ADDED FEATURES SHOULD REALLY HELP IN GETTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THE OUTSIDE SHOT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS. AS FOR THE STRONG/SVR
ASPECT MID LVL LAPSE RATES COULD BE A LOT BETTER BUT OTHER FEATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE. FIRST OFF WE WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET.
SECOND THERE WILL STILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. COMBINE
THOSE TWO WITH THE ADDED FORCING AND LIFT AND WE SHOULD GET A FEW
POTENT STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BY SAT MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END QUICKLY OVER OUR
LAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
B/T THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WHILE THIS OCCURS A PIECE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CUT OFF OVER THE
NRN GULF AND THIS COULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

SAT THROUGH TUE....WE WILL BE RATHER DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ERN SEABOARD HELPING TO DRIVE
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF. LIGHT SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SAT MORNING BUT BY AFTN ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE CWA REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE. MUCH DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LL TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL MAKE THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK QUITE COMFORTABLE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE QUITE NICE. CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS(NEAR 60 TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE LA COAST)WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUN-TUE MORNING. AS FOR HIGHS MOST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 90. MEX GUI AGREES WITH THIS SO I
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVIATIONS.

BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AND IF THERE
IS A WEAKNESS/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NRN GULF RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO THAT LL TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT KMCB...AND IF 48 HOURS AGO IS ANY
INDICATION...VSBYS SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MIX
OUT THERE AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KGPT...AGAIN
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. GULF CONVECTION GETTING STARTED PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. COULD SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 14Z AT KGPT AND KMSY...AND CLOSER TO NOON FOR
KBTR AND KMCB. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. 35

&&

.MARINE...
THE USUAL EARLY MORNING WIND MAX NEAR THE COAST SHOULD EASE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF
FRIDAY GENERALLY SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET DUE TO
RIDGE TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFF
SHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THRU SUNDAY. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SATURDAY. 35

.SHORT TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD GET PRETTY GOOD RAIN FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA FRI NIGHT. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE DRIER FOR THE BETTER
PART OF A WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...LOOK FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA
DURING THE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...PWS ABV
2"...AND H85 THETA E VALUES OF 340K. EVEN WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE MOVING THROUGH SCT TO NUMEROUSSHRA AND TSRA SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP TODAY. MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE EARLY THEN OUTFLOW BNDRYS LATER.
ISLTD CONVECTION IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL START TO SPREAD NWRD THROUGH THE MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BETTER TOMORROW FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. FIRST THEFRONT WILL BE CLOSING IN/PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENHANCED LL CONVERGENCE/FORCING. AT THE SAME TIME THE ERNCONUSTROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN LEADING TO NW FLOW DRIVING A
FEW IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERING THE MID LVL HGHTS. THESE
ADDED FEATURES SHOULD REALLY HELP IN GETTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THE OUTSIDE SHOT OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS. AS FOR THE STRONG/SVR
ASPECT MID LVL LAPSE RATES COULD BE A LOT BETTER BUT OTHER FEATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE. FIRST OFF WE WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET.
SECOND THERE WILL STILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE. COMBINE
THOSE TWO WITH THE ADDED FORCING AND LIFT AND WE SHOULD GET A FEW
POTENT STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BY SAT MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END QUICKLY OVER OUR
LAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENTB/T THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH A MID LVLRIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WHILE THIS OCCURS A PIECE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO CUT OFF OVER THE
NRN GULF AND THIS COULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

SAT THROUGH TUE....WE WILL BE RATHER DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THETROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ERN SEABOARD HELPING TO DRIVE
THE FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF. LIGHT SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SAT MORNING BUT BY AFTN ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE CWA REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE. MUCH DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LL TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL MAKE THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK QUITE COMFORTABLE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE QUITE NICE. CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA EXPECTED EACH NIGHT...MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS(NEAR 60 TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE LA COAST)WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUN-TUE MORNING. AS FOR HIGHS MOST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 90. MEX GUI AGREES WITH THIS SO I
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEVIATIONS.

BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AND IF THERE
IS A WEAKNESS/CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NRN GULF RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO THAT LL TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT KMCB...AND IF 48 HOURS AGO IS ANY
INDICATION...VSBYS SHOULD FOLLOW SHORTLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO MIX
OUT THERE AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KGPT...AGAIN
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. GULF CONVECTION GETTING STARTED PRETTY MUCH ON
SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. COULD SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TOCONVECTION AS EARLY AS 14Z AT KGPT AND KMSY...AND CLOSER TO NOON FOR
KBTR AND KMCB. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. 35

&&

.MARINE...
THE USUAL EARLY MORNING WIND MAX NEAR THE COAST SHOULD EASE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WINDS THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF
FRIDAY GENERALLY SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET DUE TORIDGE TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFF
SHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THRU SUNDAY. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SATURDAY. 35

.SHORT TERM...IT SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND TSRA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
7Z THE COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHING SW FROM THE U.P. THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. CONVECTION WAS STILL OCCURRING ALONG
THE FRONT IN SERN ARK AND BACK INTO NERN TX.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WHILE
THE MID LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION FROM WRLY TO NWRLY. THE
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY HAS BASICALLY BROKEN OFF INTO TWO PIECES. THE FIRST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN TX CONVECTION AND IS PUSHING SOUTH. OTHER
IS MOVING TO THE EAST TWRDS THE TN VALLEY. THAT SAID THE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEHIND AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE MOVING
INTO THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA NO LATER THAN MIDDAY AS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE CWA. THAT
SAID CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AND AS HGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE SHARPENING L/W TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND EXPAND NORTH. AS FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS NOT TOO MUCH HAS
CHANGED IN THE THINKING AND AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCSTER THAT
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO ISLTD PULSE SVR STORMS.
WE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND AS THE L/W TROUGH SHARPENS WE WILL MOVE
UNDER THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET THIS AFTN INCREASING THE LIFT/ULL
DIVERGENCE. THE FRONT WILL ADD A LITTLE MORE FORCING WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE A FEW STORMS ALLOWING THEM TO APPROACH STRONG/SVR LIMITS. IF
ANY STRONG/SVR STORM DEVELOPS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. ONE
CAVEAT...CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND IF CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD
PRETTY FAST THIS MORNING THIS WILL KEEP US FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE
AND REALLY KEEP THE STRONG/SVR RISK IN CHECK. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT APPROACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNRISE WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE NRN GULF SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS. BY SAT AFTN MUCH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS BY AUG
STANDARDS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT BY SUN MORNING
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EVEN COOLER LL TEMPS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR HIGHS
SUN...H925 TEMPS WILL DROP ALL THE WAY TO 20-21C AND THIS WOULD
NORMALLY ONLY SUGGEST MID 80S BUT THIS IS MID AUG AND WITH BASICALLY
FULL SUN EXPECTED I WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S...WHICH
BASICALLY AGREES WITH THE MAV. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MDLS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE EXTENDED. THE L/W TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH EAST OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD/FLATTEN OUT BY TUE WITH A PIECE OF IT BEING
DISPLACED OVER THE SERN CONUS/NRN GULF. AS THE PREVIOUS FCSTER
MENTIONED BOTH THAT FEATURE AND A LINGERING BNDRY IN THE GULF THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. NOTHING
IS EXPECTED YET BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT.

THE BIGGEST SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MDLS BASICALLY KEEPING US
DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT I WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST
BEGINNING WED. MOISTURE DOES START TO INCREASE BY MID/LATE WEEK AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISLTD CONVECTION TO RETURN BUT OVERALL THINGS
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED.
MON AND TUE WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL COMFORTABLE. TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL BUT ON WED WE SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL AS BOTH LL
MOISTURE/TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASE. THE BIGGEST DEVIATIONS TO GUI WERE
MORNING LOWS MON AND TUE WHICH I WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE MEX
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE PEARL RIVER AND
PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW
EXTRA DEGREES. AGAIN WE WILL MONITOR THE GULF FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DECAYING BNDRY IN THE GULF
OCCASIONALLY HAPPENS AND WITH TODAYS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
KMCB EARLIER HAD VLIFR FOR ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT HAS SINCE RETURNED TO
VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT THOSE CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR A TIME AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO AFFECT
THE AREA TERMINALS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...KMSY AND KGPT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY TSRA AS EARLY AS 15Z.
KBTR AND KMCB CLOSER TO 17Z OR 18Z. AGAIN...MOST OR ALL CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR FOG ISSUES
AT THIS TIME. 35

&&

.MARINE...
A REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS
INDICATE WE MAY APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...PROBABLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. 35

.SHORT TERM...IT SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND TSRA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY
7Z THE COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHING SW FROM THE U.P. THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. CONVECTION WAS STILL OCCURRING ALONG
THE FRONT IN SERN ARK AND BACK INTO NERN TX.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WHILE
THE MID LVLFLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION FROM WRLY TO NWRLY. THE
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY HAS BASICALLY BROKEN OFF INTO TWO PIECES. THE FIRST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN TX CONVECTION AND IS PUSHING SOUTH. OTHER
IS MOVING TO THE EAST TWRDS THE TN VALLEY. THAT SAID THE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS JUST BEHIND AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE MOVING
INTO THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA NO LATER THAN MIDDAY AS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
THE DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE CWA. THAT
SAID CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING AND AS HGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THE SHARPENING L/W TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND EXPAND NORTH. AS FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS NOT TOO MUCH HAS
CHANGED IN THE THINKING AND AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCSTER THAT
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO ISLTD PULSESVR STORMS.
WE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND AS THE L/W TROUGH SHARPENS WE WILL MOVE
UNDER THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET THIS AFTN INCREASING THE LIFT/ULLDIVERGENCE. THE FRONT WILL ADD A LITTLE MORE FORCING WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE A FEW STORMS ALLOWING THEM TO APPROACH STRONG/SVR LIMITS. IF
ANY STRONG/SVR STORM DEVELOPS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. ONE
CAVEAT...CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THECOASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND IF CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD
PRETTY FAST THIS MORNING THIS WILL KEEP US FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE
AND REALLY KEEP THE STRONG/SVR RISK IN CHECK. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT APPROACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNRISE WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE NRN GULF SAT WITH ANY ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HRS. BY SATAFTN MUCH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS BY AUG
STANDARDS. TEMPS ON SAT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT BY SUN MORNING
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EVEN COOLER LL TEMPS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR HIGHS
SUN...H925 TEMPS WILL DROP ALL THE WAY TO 20-21C AND THIS WOULD
NORMALLY ONLY SUGGEST MID 80S BUT THIS IS MID AUG AND WITH BASICALLY
FULL SUN EXPECTED I WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S...WHICH
BASICALLY AGREES WITH THE MAV. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MDLS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE EXTENDED. THE L/W TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH EAST OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD/FLATTEN OUT BY TUE WITH A PIECE OF IT BEING
DISPLACED OVER THE SERN CONUS/NRN GULF. AS THE PREVIOUS FCSTER
MENTIONED BOTH THAT FEATURE AND A LINGERING BNDRY IN THE GULF THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. NOTHING
IS EXPECTED YET BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT.

THE BIGGEST SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MDLS BASICALLY KEEPING US
DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT I WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST
BEGINNING WED. MOISTURE DOES START TO INCREASE BY MID/LATE WEEK AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISLTD CONVECTION TO RETURN BUT OVERALL THINGS
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED.
MON AND TUE WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL COMFORTABLE. TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL BUT ON WED WE SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL AS BOTH LLMOISTURE/TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASE. THE BIGGEST DEVIATIONS TO GUI WERE
MORNING LOWS MON AND TUE WHICH I WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE MEX
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE PEARL RIVER AND
PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW
EXTRA DEGREES. AGAIN WE WILL MONITOR THE GULF FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DECAYING BNDRY IN THE GULF
OCCASIONALLY HAPPENS AND WITH TODAYS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
KMCB EARLIER HAD VLIFR FOR ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT HAS SINCE RETURNED TOVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT THOSE CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR A TIME AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO AFFECT
THE AREA TERMINALS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...KMSY AND KGPT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY TSRA AS EARLY AS 15Z.
KBTR AND KMCB CLOSER TO 17Z OR 18Z. AGAIN...MOST OR ALL CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR FOG ISSUES
AT THIS TIME. 35

&&

.MARINE...
A REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WINDS
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS
INDICATE WE MAY APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...PROBABLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TUESDAY AS SFCRIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. 35

.SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY TO THE
COAST STRETCHING FROM NERN AL SW TWRDS SWRN LA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH TWRDS THE COAST THIS MORNING AND BY
MIDDAY SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WERE STILL ISLTD
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY B/T LFT AND BTR.

TODAY...LOOK FOR ISLTD/SCT CONVECTION TO REFIRE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
DOWN IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THE COOLER AIR
WILL LAG BACK BY ABOUT 12 HRS OR SO. WITH THAT HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE
AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
TODAY IT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE AT LEAST 60 NM
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY EARLY/MID AFTN WITH RAIN LIKELY NOT RETURNING
UNTIL LATE TUE IF NOT WED.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...QUIETER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES AND MID 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LA COAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
MOST NIGHTS...WITH TONIGHT BEING AN EXCEPTION. SOME CAA IN THE LL
TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 15KTS JUST ABV THE SFC SHOULD KEEP
THE SFC WINDS FROM GOING CALM...LIKELY STAYING UP IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE. THIS WILL HURT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT BUT LOOK FOR LOWS
TO STILL BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. OVER THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
NICELY WITH POSSIBLE UPPER 50S ACROSS SRN MS AND IN THE PEARL RIVER
AND PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE BASINS SUN NIGHT. H925 TEMPS WILL FALL TO
20-21C SUN THEN RISE ABOUT A DEGREE EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY LEADING TO
MOSTLY UPPER 80S TOMORROW AND LOWER 90S BY TUE. AS FOR RAIN...WE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT BY TUE MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK BACK
TWRDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THAT AS THE ERN CONUS TROUGH
FLATTENS OUT A PIECE OF IT MAY CUT OFF/DETACH OVER THE NRN/NWRN GULF
TUE AND THIS COULD HELP GET ISLTD CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TUE AFTN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THAT
PIECE OF MID LVL ENERGY OVER THE NWRN GULF. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE AND PUSHES IT WEST INTO SRN TX WHILE THE GFS IS
WEAKER AND KEEPS IT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FOR THE MOST PART OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR EITHER WAY SO I WILL JUST STICK
WITH THE GFS/MEX AT THIS TIME.

WED THROUGH SAT...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RETURN AND WITH EITHER AN
UPPER LOW OR AT LEAST A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LVLS SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD START TO AFFECT MOST OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE BACK AROUND NORMAL. STILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT AS OUR FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF ADD IN THAT THERE
COULD BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF AND EITHER OF THOSE CAN
ALWAYS LEAD TO SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CALMING OVERNIGHT. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. AS A SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS
RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY AND
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. NO
SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 95/DM

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AND AS
EXPECTED MUCH DRIER AIR BEGAN TO SURGE IN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS
GOT AS LOW AS THE LOWER TO MID 60S YESTERDAY AND CONTINUED TO FALL
OVERNIGHT AFTER BUMPING UP TEMPORARILY WITH SUNSET. TEMPS WERE
STEADILY FALLING OVERNIGHT WITH MOST SITES AROUND THE LOWER 70S BY
7Z BUT WITH WINDS NOT REALLY STAYING UP LOOK FOR QUITE A FEW SITES
TO REALLY START TO DROP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH MORNING LOWS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR.

TODAY THROUGH TUE...THE FCST WILL MAINLY CONCENTRATE ON TEMPS AS WE
WILL REMAIN QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP ANY RAIN
CHANCES AROUND ZERO. THE SHARP ERN SEABOARD TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE LATE MON WITH A PIECE OF IT DETACHING
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS
MID LVL FEATURE WILL TRACK BUT THAT WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...LL TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TODAY(H925 HOVERING AROUND 20-21C). THIS WOULD
NORMALLY SUGGEST HIGHS AROUND 85-86 BUT WITH FULL SUN I WILL ADD
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE MAV. HIGHS
WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MAINLY LOWER
90S EXPECTED BY TUE. AS FOR LOWS...THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PRACTICALLY OPTIMAL
RAD COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE END OF MAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S. BTR AND MCB APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOWS WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY
FCSTING. TUE MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER COOL ONE WITH A FEW SITES
ATTEMPTING TO BREAK THEIR RECORD LOWS WITH UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AGAIN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MDLS WERE STARTING TO HAVE CONTINUITY PROBLEMS AND
DIVERGE ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
THE ERN SEABOARD TROUGH BUT THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE BACK IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN
RETURN BY AT LEAST THU.

WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE QUIET DAY ON WED. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY START
TO RETURN BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SW OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WED AND MOVE TWRDS THE SABINE RIVER LATE WED AND INTO THU.
BY THAT TIME MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
PWS BACK UP TO AROUND 1.5-1.75" THU. COMBINE THAT WITH UPPER LVL
SUPPORT FROM OUR LOW AND SCT CONVECTION SHOULD RETURN TO THE CWA
THU. THAT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
IT GETS KICKED OUT TO THE NE BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL THEN PUT THEN REGION UNDER SW
FLOW KEEPING RAIN CHANCES RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABV NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE THING IF THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT
PUSH AS FAR W/SW THEN THU COULD BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED MORNING LOOK FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. AS FOR LOWS WED WE
SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF JUST BELOW NORMAL LOWS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS AT MCB
AND BTR...WITH AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT MSY AND GPT. WINDS SHOULD
CALM AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS EAST OF THE RIVER AND OUT 20 NMI HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST...IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS AREA. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...SO THE HEADLINE WILL KEEP AN
EXPIRATION TIME OF 8 AM. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN LOCAL MOISTURE
RETURN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
WATERS BY THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NO HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. 95/DM

&&

.CLIMATE...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A FEW SITES TO THREATEN RECORD
LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO BREAK A FEW RECORDS. BELOW ARE RECORDS AND THE CURRENT
FCST FOR A COUPLE OF SITES. /CAB/

Wow! What a beautiful day here in Covington! 85Â°F for a high, 64Â°F for a low. Dewpoint 58Â° and humidity in the 40's. Feels like a late September day! Edged, weed-eated, and cut my one acre lot and hardly broke into a sweat. Wish we'd played golf today instead of yesterday! Looks like a couple more days like this before the high temps and humidity come back.

.SHORT TERM...
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HAS A FEW LOCATIONS
CHALLENGING RECORD LOWS FOR THIS DATE THIS MORNING. KBTR IS CURRENTLY
WITHIN 1 DEGREE OF TYING A RECORD LOW OF 64 SET IN 1957. THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA WILL BE A LITTLE TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE WITH 63 SET IN
1965 /THE YEAR OF HRCN BETSY IN SEPT/ AND CURRENTLY AROUND 74F.
THE DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS AGREE TO VARYING DEGREES ON HANDLING A PIECE OF CIRCULATION
PINCHING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP TROUGH AND RETROGRADING TO THE GULF
COAST DURING THE MID- TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE BEING LIFTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH INTEGRITY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY NOR DOES IT APPEAR TO GET OVER THE GULF
WATERS LONG ENOUGH OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO POSE A DOWNWARD
TRANSLATION CONCERN FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS TIME. IT
WOULD SEEM A TREND TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD ONSET BY THURSDAY BUT THE DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MARITIME
AIR MAY BE TAINTED WITH CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES IN THE MID-LAYERS
FOR A WHILE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAVU VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
LONGER.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ISSUES TO MENTION OUTSIDE A LIMITED BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE SURF ZONE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING
OVER THE MUCH WARMER WATERS FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL INSTABILITY NEAR
DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9 AM WITH JUST A LITTLE HEATING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED NEXT 5 DAYS.