Saturday, May 18, 2013

After several reports of route changes for Sunday’s stage 15
the latest update is that

The original Stage 15 Profile

race organizers RCS Sport have decided to shorten the finish
climb to the Galibier by just 4.25 kilometers. The stage will now finish by the Marco Pantani memorial
at 2295 meters of elevation, about 350 meters below the original finish at the
summit (at 2642 meters).

Of course the RCS will alter the route again if it is deemed necessary.

At this point they are still including the 2090-meter climb
to Mont Cenis which comes at km 58.They will also start 30 minutes later than originally scheduled

The first climb, The Col du Mont Cenis

The
Col du Mont Cenis is about 25.5 kms long averaging around 7%, with a
maximum gradient of 10% in the middle, and if the weather permits, will
take the riders over the 2000-meter elevation mark for the first time in
the race.

The new finish line is right above the 11% Max mark

The category 2
Telegraphe climb
from St. Michel de Maurienne is about 12 km at an average gradient
between 7 and 7.5 %, maxing out at around 10% near the top, and
boasting 14 hairpin bends. The riders have about a 5km descent to
recover a little before passing through Valloire and onto the Galibier,
which will now take the riders up to 2295 meters to the Pantani
monument. Click the graphs to see the gradients. They will climb up
about 14 kms of the Galibier to the Pantani monument, just above the max
gradient of 11%. With a rest day ahead, the contenders may
choose to leave it all out on the road today. Although Nibali has shown
that he is not a man who will give up time easily.

Il Pirata

The monument marks the point where the late Pantani launched
the attack that won him the lead in the 1998 Tour de France. He would hold that
lead all the way to Paris. Il Pirata attacked
in the cold rain on the Galibier, which was the third of four big climbs on
that stage 15 from Grenoble to Les Deux-Alpes. He turned his race around there,
going from fourth place, down three minutes, to a cozy lead of almost four
minutes. His 1998 Giro-Tour double win was only the seventh ever and stands as
the last time that feat has been accomplished.

Course: 180 kms (revised from 168), High Mountains (MTF); from
Cervere to Bardonecchia;

This morning race organizers RCS made the cautious decision
to cut the Sestriere climb from today’s stage 14 due to excessive snowfall on
the 2000-meter high peak. The stage has been lengthened by 12km with a summit
finish still expected at Jafferau. The riders will now race for 180 kilometres,
through the Val di Susa valley before the final climb to the finish.

Last night’s news that the stage 15 climb to the Galibier
might be cut from the course is still being considered today. Weather on the
2642-meter high peak is persuading the organizers to shorten the climb by about
800 vertical meters to finish in Valloire after climbing the Telegraphe. The
first planned climb up the Col du Mont Cenis may be cut from the stage as well,
and the new course for stage 15 may be as short as 50 kms. The peloton
generally praised the decision to err on the side of caution. Race director
Mauro Vegni said he is waiting on further reports from local authorities, but
he hopes to salvage the stage if possible.

UPDATE: Both of the high stage 15 climbs have been eliminated from the route.

The riders have begun stage 14 in Cervere.

Rain is falling hard on the course as the peloton take to
the road.

Four more riders did not start this morning: Daniele Bennati
and Karsten Kroon (TST), Gert Steegmans (OPQ) and Jack Bobridge (BLA).

This morning race organizers RCS made the cautious decision
to cut the Sestriere climb from today’s stage 14 due to excessive snowfall on
the 2000-meter high peak. The stage has been lengthened by 12km with a summit
finish still expected at Jafferau. The riders will now race for 180 kilometres,
through the Val di Susa valley before the final climb to the finish.

Last night’s news that the
stage 15 climb to the Galibier might be cut from the course is still being
considered today. Weather on the 2642-meter high peak is persuading the
organizers to shorten the climb by about 800 vertical meters to finish in
Valloire after climbing the Telegraphe. The first planned climb up the Col du
Mont Cenis may be cut from the stage as well, and the new course for stage 15
may be as short as 50 kms. The peloton generally praised the decision to err on
the side of caution. Race director Mauro Vegni said he is waiting on further
reports from local authorities, but he hopes to salvage the stage if possible.

Friday, May 17, 2013

Mark Cavendish held up four fingers when he crossed the
stage 13 finish line today, one for each stage he has won. He posted
back-to-back wins yesterday and today, but you can bet your life savings that
he won’t make it three.

*[You can see my entire recap of today’s and every day’s
stage by clicking on the relevant link to the right. Previews for each stage are there too. After a few days the pages can be found under "Blog Archives"]*

Nibali: mentally prepared for the Alps

The stage started without ex-protagonists Bradley Wiggins (Sky) and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) who were both ailing and losing time. Matty Breschel has withdrawn from the race following stage 13 as well.

Friday the race moved west across northern Italy. Saturday's Stage 14
takes the riders through the Piedmont region, northwest into the Alps.
It
finishes on top of the 1908-meter high Jafferau climb in Bardonecchia,
right by the French border. On the way the riders will have to make the
very
long haul up to Sestriere—which itself is 2035 meters high.

Stage 14 Profile

This “easy side” of the Sestriere is a category 2 climb that
summits with 43 kms to go. It averages under 4%, but it goes on and on and can
drain a lot of energy before the finish climb in Bardonecchia. The peloton will
have effectively been climbing for 60 kms by the time they hit the KOM line at
the top of the famous Olympic ski village. The measured climb is taped at 17.53
kms, climbing 685 vertical meters, for an average of 3.9%. The main climb is
really just over 9 kms long averaging closer to 5.5%, then finishes with a
short sprint to the KOM line.

The climb to the finish

After a 21 km descent to Oulx the riders will start climbing
again, and after 160kms in the saddle they’ll begin the steep ascent to
Bardonecchia. The Jafferau climb to Bardonecchia is 7 kms averaging 9%, but mostly
over 10%, and with a maximum close to 15%. The last couple kms average
over 10%, so no pretenders will win tomorrow.

Several riders will look for a way to chip away at Nibali’s
lead. I think the top GC guys will probably wait until the last couple of kilometers
before trying anything serious though. They will need energy for stage 15’s
climbing bonanza to the Galibier.

STAGE 14 PICKS:

LIKELY PICKS: One of the pure climbers like Domenico Pozzovivo or Darwin Atapuma.
Michele Scarponi and Vincenzo Nibali are also good picks.

DARK-HORSE PICK: Egoi Martinez (Euskatel). If the Basque climber is not stuck chaperoning his team leader Sammy Sanchez up the climbs, he is one of the few
experienced veterans out there who could have a chance of winning from a break
on a stage that the GC contenders will be gunning for. He is far enough back on GC (at
over eighteen minutes down) that he could be allowed to ride away. Whether
anyone will be able to stay away is another matter.

MY
PICK: Carlos
Betancur (Ag2R). The 23-year old is one of several Colombian mountain goats who
have a good shot at this stage. He posted good results in some of the Classics
this year (3rd at Fleche Wallone and 4th at
Liege-Bastogne-Liege), he had two top-5 mountaintop finishes at the Tour of the
Basque Country in April, and he finished 2nd on top of the Altopiano
climb on stage 10 just a few days ago.

The longest stage of this year’s edition starts without two
pre-race favorites. Many people’s overall favorite, Bradley Wiggins of Team
Sky, dropped out after losing time over several rainy stages. He seemed to fall
behind on every descent on the parcours.
He and defending champ, Ryder Hesjedal of Garmin-Sharp both became ill during
the race. Wiggins was over five minutes off the leading pace and Hesjedal had
lost over 32 minutes to race leader Vincenzo Nibali. After another grueling wet
stage on Thursday both riders’ teams pulled the plug on their respective
leaders. So Hesjedal’s shot at a repeat win is over, as is Wiggins’ hope for
the Giro-Tour double.

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Congratulations are due to Mark Cavendish for clocking
his 100th career win as a professional cyclist. The Manx Missile
came from a chaotic pack that was still chasing down the breakaway group in the
last 500 meters of the stage. In characteristic form he torpedoed through a
swell of sprinters to take his third stage win of this Giro d’Italia. Behind
him Nacer Bouhanni (FDJ) and Luca Mezgec (ARG) fought over the scraps. The win
also earned Cav the Red points jersey, previously held by Cadel Evans.

The Manx Missile's milestone win

The General Classification was mostly unchanged, and
Vincenzo Nibali retained the Pink Jersey. The big loser today was Bradley
Wiggins who dropped from 4th place to 13th on GC. His
team reported this morning that he is suffering from a cold and a chest
infection, and today’s soaking trek could not have been any help. He fell
behind after the only categorized climb and despite the aid of all his
teammates, other than the still-contending Colombian duo of Sergio Henao and
Rigoberto Uran, team Sky’s leader could not make it back up to the hard-chasing
peloton. He finished over three minutes behind the Maglia Rosa group and lost his high placement on GC. Sky’s GC hopes
are still very much alive however, with Uran currently riding in 3rd
place overall, and Henao not far back in 11th.

Cavendish takes his 3rd win of the Giro, and 100th career

The short stage was largely characterized by the torrential
rain that showered the riders over the entire 134-kilometer course. The finish
was very technical with several corners on some newly paved roads so the race directors
wisely chose to neutralize the last 3 kilometers to avoid unnecessary
disasters. The original finish line would still see the sprint point for the
stage win however.

A quintet of escapees consisting of Maxim Belkov (KAT-winner
of stage 9), Bert de Backer (ARG), Fabio Felline (AND), Mauris Lammertink and
Marco Marcato (VCD) controlled the lead almost to the finish, but for the late
catch by the sprinters. They had a
scare when four of the five escapees crashed on a slippery curve about 30 or 35
kms into the stage. They were all up and back on the road after a few bike
swaps. The 3:00 lead they had before the pile-up was maintained afterward as
the peloton slowed significantly to take that same wet curve.

Stage 13 Profile

Rain is forecast again for Stage 13 on Friday. The stage features
another possible sprint stage finish—or does it? At 254 kilometers it is the longest stage of the race. To get
an idea of the length of this stage, after 182 kms of racing on flats, instead
of a finish line the riders will just be hitting the first intermediate sprint
point.

A single category 3 hill comes at km 211, the summit tops
out about 35 kms before the finish. Regardless of the specs (looks like it
climbs 482 vertical meters over 10.1 kms; that would be a little under 5% average)
that far from the finish, the climb should not be decisive.

More likely to
produce a disruptive move is the 2.5 km climb to Narzole near the finish. The
road is narrow and has some steep hairpins up through town that could offer an
escape opportunity to a puncheur
with
some fuel left in the tank after 245 kms of racing in the rain. The
uncategorized hill tops out with 6 kms of flats to go, so a comfortable
lead
would be needed to stay away to the line. If a large peloton makes it to
Narzole near the front, a lot of riders will lick their chops for this
stage
because they’ll be lucky just to get through the next two stages in the
mountains. It is even possible that the pure sprinters might not get
another shot until the last stage into Brescia ten days from now.

STAGE 13 PICKS:

LIKELY PICKS: I guess one of the stronger sprinters would be the safest bet, maybe Movistar’s
Francisco Ventoso or Bardiani’s Sacha Modolo?

DARK-HORSE PICK: Laurent Pichon (FDJ)

MY
PICK: This
could be another stage that looks tasty to Katusha’s stage-3 winner Luca
Paolini.

2 categorized climbs today, both are small cat. 4’s. The
first climb is the Muro de Ca' del Poggio, which the peloton will hit at about
km 57. In 1.15km of climbing, the road kicks up to gradients of 18% and
16%. The second climb, the Montello Santa Maria Della Vittoria at km 93,
is 3.6 kms long but less steep at a 7% average, with only one early section of
14%.

The final run in is flat, but technical. Eight turns
and a roundabout mark the last 7.5 kilometers, with four of them coming between
3 and 1.5 kms to go.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

It took a long time for an
escape group to form on the 11th stage to Vajont, but once they did they stayed away. The peloton
allowed the break plenty of room since no threats to the overall classification
were up front. Patrick Gretsch rode a long solo break in the front before being
reeled in by a couple of his erstwhile break-mates. He was one of the escapees
on stage 4 also. In the end it was Ramunas Navardauskas, Team Garmin-Sharp’s
Lithuanian TT champ, who stayed away to claim the win on top of the 800-meter
high Diga del Vajont.

The GC favorites finished
together a few minutes later, so the overall situation is basically the same.
No jerseys changed hands.

STAGE 12 Profile

Thursday’s
stage 12 from Longarone
to Treviso will be short and fast. I can’t imagine the sprinters’ teams
will
allow those few bumps in the profile to keep them from a bunch sprint
finish.
This will be one of their last chances to get one, so they will want it
here. Rain is definitely expected again tomorrow. On their home turf are
Guardini, Viviani and Modolo, who will likely want to
steal the show. Will we get a Cavendish-Ferrari showdown?

STAGE 12 PICKS:

LIKELY PICK: Mark Cavendish (OPQ)

DARK-HORSE PICK: Nathan Haas (GRS)

MY
PICK: Cavendish
of course, but I’d like to see Danilo Wyss get a high placing.

Sun forecasted but some rain
reported early. Wet roads on the mountains from snowmelt;

Stage 11 Profile

A long category 2 climb
makes up the middle of the stage. The 30-km long Sella Ciampigotto summits 55km
to the base of the final climb at Codissago. It is a mostly descending ride to
the final climb which covers about 7 kms averaging only about 5%, with a max of
9% briefly, before a short descent to the finish line. A large group may
contest the finish if a breakaway does not succeed. Half the teams still have
their full contingent of riders in the race.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

We were treated to another great
stage today with the General Classification contenders attacking each other on
the final category 1 climb up to Altopiano del Montasio. Vincenzo Nibali did a
great job defending the Maglia Rosa, and Sky’s Rigoberto Uran climbed his way
to the stage win and third place overall. Rafal Majka, with an inspired climb reclaimed the young rider's jersey.

Androni’s Jackson Rodriguez
was the main animator and road leader for much of the stage—until the
contenders organized for the final climb. Bradley Wiggins looked to be struggling
to stay on terms in the last, steep kilometers to the finish near the Slovenian
border. But he stayed in his rhythm and limited his losses, finally conceding
49 seconds to Nibali, with the :08 time bonus calculated in that Nibali got for
3rd place today.

My pick for today, Michele
Scarponi of Lampre, looked great for most of the climb, but struggled to keep
contact with the select Nibali group that got away in the last kilometers to
chase Uran to the line. That group consisted of Nibali, Evans, Pozzovivo,
Betancur, Majka, and for a while, Kiserlovski. Scarponi and his teammate
Niemiec came in just behind 10th place Wiggins. It was good
to see my dark-horse pick, Trofimov, right in there at the end finishing
along with Scarponi and Niemiec.

Sammy Sanchez and Giampaolo
Caruso lost significant time, but the big loser of the day has to be last
year’s champ Ryder Hesjedal. The Garmin climber started to fall behind on the
day’s first climb, but was able to rejoin the lead group for a while before really
beginning to suffer on the final climb. Hesjedal finally came in 71st,
in a group almost 21 minutes behind the winner. There go the Canadian’s hopes
for a repeat victory (or even a top 10 finish), up in flames.

Several riders are still dealing with illness after the cold wet stages, today young Nibali helper Fabio Aru reported ill.

The 3rd place to
6th place riders on GC are all within ten seconds of each other, and
a few others who might have something to say about a podium spot are not far
behind; so we will continue to see heated attacks in pursuit of Nibali’s prized
shirt, and a podium position in Brescia.

STAGE 11

Tomorrow’s stage 11 also
ends with a climb to the finish. This one will not match stage 10’s finish
however. Tomorrow’s cat. 2 finish climb to Vajont is neither as steep nor as
long. A long cat. 2 makes up the middle of the stage and, along with the finish,
may encourage another successful breakaway. From the summit of the mid-stage
climb (the 1790m-high, 30km long Sella Ciampigotto) the riders have 55 km of
mostly descending to the base of the final climb at Codissago. The Diga del
Vajont climb at the end is basically 7km at 5% avg. with a brief max at 9%
around 2km in, and a short descent to the finish.

The STAGE 11 Finish

The GC favorites can’t
expect to gain much, if any time on their rivals on this finish, so expect a
successful breakaway--whether from an early escape group or a late break.

I could see Sky’s Dario
Cataldo being unleashed for a stage like this, or BMC’s Steve Morabito maybe.

Very narrow, technical descents color the back of today’s 1st
climb, the Passo Cason di Lanza. If Il
Falco Paolo Savoldelli’s comments about Wiggins’ descending problems being
due to nerves is true, then Wiggins will have a hard time on those sketchy
roads down to Pontebba. [the rest of the descent to Chiusaforte is supposed to
be less demanding, on wider roads]. Wiggins said himself, ”I descended like a girl”.

Today’s stage is dedicated to the tifosi, the fans. The roads have been painted with hundreds of
tweets from fans.

News yesterday that DCM are dropping their secondary
sponsorship of the Vacansoleil team after this season.

Congratulations to Colombia’s Janier Acevedo for his
impressive win on the mountain top finish of stage 2 of the Tour of California
yesterday. Another very beautiful race.

We lost a couple riders on the rest day:

DNS: John Degenkolb: abandoned citing fatigue;
Angel Vicioso (KAT): after stage 9
crash Vicioso was examined and the hospital found a fracture of the second
finger of his left hand, a fracture of two ribs (left hemithorax), a fracture
of the upper angle of his right shoulder blade, splenic contusion and left
renal contusion.

-2.9k the 4 chasers just about catch Pozzovivo, clocked at
:28 behind Uran;

But he stays away, and gets a gap again;

Evans and Santambrogio get onto 2nd chase group
with Nibali, et al;

Niemiec has dropped back to help Scarponi. Too bad for him.
He had a good GC shot going.

2k to go: Nibali doing
all the work to pull Pozzo back, now Evans comes up to help;

*The situation: Uran leads, approaching the top of the
steeps before the easier run to the line. He has :24 on a hard-chasing
Pozzovivo. 6 chasers are closing in on Pozzovivo now (Evans, Nibali,
Santambrogio, Majka, Betancur and Kiserlovski), they join him when Uran hits
-1.5 km and form the 7-man-strong first chase group on the road.

Wiggins is maintaining a rhythm behind. Can he make it back?

Evans takes over the pace for the G2 chase group;

-1.5k Betancur attacks the other 6 and gets space; His buddy
Pozzovivo hangs in back of the elite chasing group;

-1k for Uran;

Just as Evans comes around on a big acceleration and attacks
the chasers, Nibali has a mechanical! It’s gear problems. Terribly inopportune.

The defenseless Sicilian gets the gear back in and fights to
recover. Evans slows his attack down;

Back down the hill, Bradley Wiggins is buying ice cream from
a vendor.

Just kidding.

Uran flies down the easy finale;

Behind him at the sumit, Nibali attacks and Evans responds;

They’ll be fighting for 2nd place.

Uran at the line.

:19 to Betancur

:30 to that elite chase group who look like they all got the
same time;