Damascus ‘Bubble’ Belies Violent Reality of Assad’s Syria

More than 14 months into the Syrian uprising, the government of President Bashar al-Assad is projecting a facade of normality belied by a breakdown in security and a proliferation of defensive emplacements. Photographer: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Syria marked Traffic Day this month
with five programs on state-run television and radio fostering
road safety and responsible driving.

On the streets of the capital Damascus, motorists are
lulled by sprinklers feeding lush traffic circles studded with
yellow and purple spring flowers. The theme of benevolent
government is underlined by news in Tishrin, the state-run
paper, which reports that the state spent 80 million Syrian
pounds ($1.25 million) last year treating more than 19,700
people bitten by stray dogs.

More than 14 months into the Syrian uprising, the
government of President Bashar al-Assad is projecting a facade
of normality belied by a breakdown in security and a
proliferation of defensive emplacements. Sandbags, blast walls
and heavily armed men seek to protect government buildings in
Damascus, where suicide bombers killed at least 55 and injured
almost 400 in twin attacks on May 10.

Damascus and Aleppo, Syria’s second city, need to appear
normal and under control to support the government’s narrative,
Rime Allaf, associate fellow of London-based Chatham House’s
Middle East and North Africa program, said in a telephone
interview from Vienna.

“Damascus, and to a certain extent Aleppo, are living in a
bubble which it’s essential for the regime to keep alive,”
Allaf said. “This sense of normalcy is what the Syrian regime
has strived to keep even as Homs and Hama and Daraa were going
through hell.”

Aleppo Protests

There are signs that unrest is creeping closer to the two
cities. Syrian forces battled rebels on the outskirts of
Damascus and several loud explosions shook the capital on May
20, the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
Last week, thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of
Aleppo to protest against a government crackdown on university
students earlier this month.

Syria influences the Middle East region, both because of
its close ties to Iran’s government and because of its six-decade long enmity toward Israel. The risk of its domestic
conflict spreading abroad were underlined yesterday when at
least two people died and more than a dozen were injured in
clashes in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Supporters and opponents
of Assad’s government traded gun and rocket fire following the
death of an anti-Syrian cleric on May 20. Saudi Arabia and other
Gulf states are meanwhile funding the opposition, while the U.S.
and U.K. are helping it to organize.

‘Breaking the Spell’

The Assad government has portrayed the unrest, which the
United Nations estimates has killed as many as 10,000 people, as
a conspiracy and the protesters as radical Islamists bent on
destroying peaceful coexistence among the country’s Muslim and
Christian sects. Much of the country is at peace, the government
says.

“This is a show,” Burhan Ghalioun, head of the main
opposition Syrian National Council, said in a phone interview
from Paris. “The news of bombings, destruction of towns and
cities and the deaths is breaking the spell. They are in a state
of denial and they need to hide the truth so they can remain in
that state. Truth is the last thing that will be revealed by
this regime.”

The Syrian administration has survived a year of revolt
that has toppled other long-standing governments. Tunisia’s Zine
El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia in January 2011,
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was forced out a month later
and faces trial, while Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi was killed in
October and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh was replaced through a
negotiated settlement in February.

‘Dictator-Lite’

“Mubarak and Ben Ali were dictator-lite compared to
Assad,” Allaf said. “Most knew Assad would last longer, but
thought that it would be more difficult for him than it has
been, and that there would be more pressure from the outside
world, which many expected couldn’t wait to get rid of him.”

Assad supporters have a different take. Omran al-Zoabi, a
lawyer who’s a member of the ruling Baath party, said “the
secret to Syria’s survival is that what’s happening here is not
an Arab Spring.”

With a large, gold-framed photograph of Assad in military
dress to his side, al-Zoabi said in an interview at the
Damascus’ Lawyers Syndicate that the president will emerge
stronger from the crisis.

‘In Our Heart’

Rabaa Shaalan, a 35-year-old mother of three who helps
organize a weekly pro-Assad youth rally in front of the Central
Bank, insisted “the regime will not fall.” As she spoke, her
mobile phone rang, trilling a pro-government song called “In
Our Heart We Chant Bashar.” She said her phone’s ringtone, like
the photos of Assad on a pendant she wears, three pins on her
lapel and her keychain, were expressions of her love for the 46
year-old president.

The belief among Assad supporters that the government is
winning has several causes, Salman Shaikh, director of the
Brookings Doha Center, said in an interview on May 15.

Assad has been given a breathing space by the international
community and not least by UN envoy Kofi Annan’s cease-fire
plan, which has failed to stop the bloodshed, he said. In
addition, there’s not yet been any major organized effort to arm
the opposition, allowing the government to continue its use of
violence and intimidation, he said.

“Plus, the Iraq war in particular has seared a real
indelible mark on this particular U.S. administration which is
why it and other Western powers have up until now not provided
the support and backing for what we all know is what is
required” to unseat the government, Shaikh said.

‘Largely Paralyzed’

The U.S. is supplying medical and communications equipment
to rebels, not arms, State Department spokeswoman Victoria
Nuland said on May 16. The Washington Post had reported that the
U.S. is helping to co-ordinate the provision of military
materiel funded by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf states.

“Instead of extending a helping hand to Syria, some Arab
countries are funding and arming and hosting terrorists,”
Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi said yesterday,
the official Syrian Arab News Agency reported.

Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace’s Middle East Center in Beirut, said the
regime has “reached a plateau but certainly not a solution or a
situation that they can sustain for very long.”

“Yes, they are trying to project normalcy, but the country
is still largely paralyzed, the economy continues to be in very
bad shape, they remain isolated and Damascus barely sputters
along,” Salem said in a telephone interview.

Jasmine and Roses

“At the same time, the opposition also in a way is taking
a breather because they realize their first approach didn’t
work,” he said.

In central Damascus, there’s little open criticism of the
government. An unmarried Sunni woman, who like many Damascenes
asked not be to be named because she fears for her security,
said that while she feels sympathy for fellow Sunnis who are
being killed in the government’s crackdown, she and her family
also worry about the losses they will suffer if they support the
opposition. Others talk about relatives, neighbors or friends
who were arrested, tortured and released by the security forces.

The streets of the city bustle with traffic during the day
as Damascenes head to work and children go to school. In the
cool spring evenings, families stroll down tree-shaded streets
and past bushes of jasmine and roses, enjoying an ice cream or a
shawarma sandwich. Diners fill sidewalk cafes in the upscale Abu
Rummaneh area, playing backgammon, smoking waterpipes or
enjoying the songs of Julio Iglesias playing in the background.

Bomb Defusal

A couple of kilometers away, on the outskirts of the
capital, opposition and government forces were engaged in
clashes. FM radio stations regularly break into popular Arabic
songs to report news, such as the dismantling of bombs. On a
recent Friday afternoon, the day of prayer when Damascus
sometimes sees brief anti-government demonstrations, a presenter
on the pro-government Addounia TV said: “No incidents have been
registered until now in Damascus, not even a single explosion.”

Whatever the government’s message, the country has already
changed, said Aaron Miller, a distinguished scholar at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, who served
Republican and Democratic secretaries of state as a Middle East
negotiator and analyst.

Speaking in an interview from Washington on May 14, Miller
said, “Whatever transpires, the Syria that we’ve come to know,
Syria under the Assads, has fundamentally been changed.”