I wasn't looking at the last two weeks as a bearish harami because the first week was not a long candle. It appears I w may have been wrong as this week is forming a confirmation of the bearish harami. How long before the G7 intervenes again? Or have they done all they are capable of?

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"A record 33 percent of existing-home sales were made to cash buyers in February, when an annualized 4.88 million properties changed hands, the National Association of Realtors reported March 21. That compares with 15 percent of the 4.82 million annualized sales when the Chicago-based trade group started monthly tracking of such purchases in October 2008.

In Florida’s Broward County, where Theocles is based, deals with no mortgages made up 69 percent of sales in February, according to Southeast Florida Multiple Listing Service data."

"With unemployment still high, companies in recent months have tried to camouflage price increases by selling their products in tiny and tinier packages. So far, the changes are most visible at the grocery store, where shoppers are paying the same amount, but getting less."

It appears that in a short period of time you have developed a loathing for trading.

What event or seminal moment have I missed?

Yeah - It's basically true...

I basically "gave it up" after Jackson Hole (last August)...

I just don't really see the point anymore... I've tried to express this many times in the past 8 months or so (but I guess I'm a bad explainer)...

TRADERS want to say that a "market is a market"... I'll AGREE with that, but I think the "MARKET" that people are talking about these days (and those famous TRADERS [whether they be algos or humans] are all existing in a state of denial (because there's TOO MUCH TO LOSE for them personally on the day that it all falls apart)...

So that's why everyone runs to Bernanke, or whatever... Any "AUTHORITY FIGURE DU JOUR" that has the paper credibility to convince them that they should continue on pulling on the oxen cart...

So, (for ME anyway), I see no point in trading the "ticks" of that existence...

That's NOT TO DISCREDIT those who do... & I'm very confident that most of the people around here are much more highly equipped than the average joe to navigate the process...

But what then?

There are basically two roads...

One result is that the "masters" (I'm talking central bankers, politicians), manage to thread the needle and navigate through this mess...

The other result is that they don't...

I'm betting on the latter... So SINCE I'm betting on the latter, it doesn't make any sense for me to trade, because I'm only trading debt notes, of a failed system, which I'd have failed to monetize (into something USEFUL - like a copper pot to distill alcohol for the day that there's no more booze on the shelves)...

I've found that when things start to change, they change very fast... So I'm not confident that, BY TRADING, I can:

#1 Make the right trades in the first place#2 Be able to REALIZE those profits at the cashiers window at the exact right time while the "system" might be crumbling #3 Have the net result of both of the above keep me AHEAD of the tax obligation to those (or even a HIGHER tax rate going forward that nobody knows about yet)#4 Being able to CONVERT those winnings to redeemable currency#5 Find the same abundance & variety of ITEMS TO BUY at that moment in time as I do now#6 Not be PRICED OUT (assuming I could find what I needed in the first place)...

In summary:

I'm PRACTICING to be able to live my everyday life (with hardly a blip), in a way that all this elaborate frameworks support now...

What's IRONIC to me is that all the "smart people" blogs that I know of... All are HIGHLY CRITICAL of the Fed, the system, yada yada...

Yet everyone, without hesitation, PLAYS THEIR GAME (the people they criticize), each and every day...

So if they REALLY TRULY BELIEVED that the system is corrupt and should be dismantled, then they ought to be FARMERS (not TRADERS)...

"A decade after it defaulted on $95 billion of bonds following a four-year recession, Argentina is again witnessing an upsurge in inflation, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its May issue. While official numbers put the rate at about 11 percent, independent economists estimate that the number may be about two and a half times as high.

That would place Argentina second only to Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, where the International Monetary Fund estimated in October that prices rose 33.3 percent last year, the highest in the world.

Accelerating Spending Accelerating spending by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government is stoking prices, economists say. Outlays on everything from highway construction to pensions climbed 37 percent last year from 2009 -- and increased 39 percent in January of this year alone. Fernandez’s largesse is made possible in large part by the global commodities boom."

...Very interesting cautionary tale about inflation...this is the very early part...the hard part comes soon enough...

Portfolio managers as a group are running their funds overweight equities by an average of 67% relative to their typical benchmarks. And polls show that one-third of them believe QE3 is coming this summer. We already know that this Bernanke-led Fed is willing to be extremely aggressive, but as we saw in 2010, the hurdle is high for quantitative easing. We need (i) signs of a double-dip, (ii) a stock market correction of at least 15%, and (iii) deflation, not inflation. How on earth will the Fed be able to do anything at all by then if headline inflation is running north of 4% and the other central banks of the world are either snuggling policy or moving in that direction ? unless the central bank really wants to trash the dollar. We are certainly not inflationists and still see deflation in credit, real wages and housing prices.

I have reading this blog from the begining of it. I have learned a lot from all the bloggers. CV, you have put too much time and effort in this blog. I really appreciated it. Your vision of life is quite unique and you are one of a true thinker of your own. Very difficult in these modern days to find a genuine person as you. Maybe I am a little bit egoistic but I truly believe you should start a new blog : The Real Survival. It could be focus in the physical survival. You are already an expert in that subject and I believe many people would be very interested in Real Survival.

"The projected Top Five in 2010 include Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia and Norway. All get “A” grades. Also ahead of Canada with “B” grades are Norway, Denmark, Germany, the United States and Austria. Last on the list of 17 is Italy. In 2011, the Conference Board projects Australia will leapfrog Sweden to take the top spot on its list."

"Investors who no longer view the Aussie dollar as a risky asset; but rather, a global safe-haven currency that also has high yields in a country with strict fiscal policy and high interest rates offered another form of support. This trend has gained momentum because traditional safe-haven assets such as gold remain expensive."

I believe REAL SURVIVAL is already relevant. You have been preparing for several years and many people (me included) are just awakening. The problems in the system are becoming more evident every day but most people do not know how to start. A blog could be very useful in several ways.

U.S. sells 5-yr debt at highest yield since April1:08 pm ET 03/29/2011 - MarketWatch Pulse News BulletNEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department sold $35 billion in 5-year notes on Tuesday at a yield of 2.26%, the highest level since last April and a touch more than traders expected. Bidders offered to buy 2.79 times the amount of debt sold, compared to an average of 2.76 times at the last four monthly sales of 5-year notes, all for the same amount. Indirect bidders, a group which includes foreign central banks, bought 42.4% of the auction, above the average of 37.9%. Direct bidders, a group which includes domestic money managers, purchased another 11.2%, compared to 10.8% on average. After the auction Treasury prices stayed down, with short- and intermediate-term notes extending the decline.

Where I live, we face the same financial scenarios as in USA plus the security thread. So, when you think in Real Survival it becomes a little bit more complex. You can still buy some farmland at a good price but you do not know when the drug cartels will come and ask for your ranch. So, your survival project can become your last one.

"Straight Talk with Catherine Austin Fitts: We Are Victims of A Financial Coup D'Etat"

6. What advice do you have to offer the average American (e.g. NOT a deep-pocketed investor) who is concerned about our economic future and wants to preserve wealth and quality of life?“Your time and attention count. Stop listening to or associating with people or institutions that have a vested interest in centralization. Start by turning off your TV. Shift your deposits, purchases, and donations to people and companies that you can trust.“Protect your health. The food and water supply is slowly being controlled and poisoned. Taking steps to assure local sources of fresh food and water is essential for your health. So is educating yourself on steps you can take to detox your body and build your immune system. The rise of environmental and electromagnetic pollution calls for a level of effort to maintain physical energy and strength that was unthinkable a decade ago.“Lower your overhead. Use your time to build as many skills as possible that can help you do more for yourself and barter with those around you.“Invest in tangibles, including precious metals. Do now allow yourself to be drained by what I call the “slow burn.”“Finally, build your understanding and ability to engage in spiritual warfare. The financial corruption is a symptom of a much deeper and very invasive moral and cultural problem. Organize your life to serve whom and what you love.”

"The process is intentionally as simple as I can make it. I use a ruler and take either a fat-tipped pen or, yes, a purple crayon, line up the lowest ticks over a reasonable time frame (at least 6 months, preferably longer) and draw a line. I'm looking for a trendline that maximizes the number of "touches" along the trend, the more touches, the better defined the trend."

...Yes, the same Macke. But his trend lines are so simple even a Tennessee caveman can understand it...

"Charts take out the emotion. A chart doesn't pass judgment or make fun of you. A chart just tells you when the trend has turned against your position. Never fighting the trend is the first thing you learn in trader school. Someday gold's trend will turn lower. When it does, I'll sell."

"Some states, such as Michigan, Florida and Arkansas, are debating reducing the number of weeks that the jobless can collect state unemployment. Others, including Indiana, want to limit the number of people eligible for benefits."

"More Americans expect their salaries to be cut soon, reversing a steady decline in the number of workers who fear pay cuts, according to a March survey. Adding insult to injury, those same consumers expect to take a bigger hit on expenses because of rising inflation.

The percentage of Americans who expect a decrease in their income over the next six months ticked back higher to 15.3 percent in March, up from 13 percent in February, which had been the best reading of wage confidence since 2008, according to fresh survey data from the Conference Board."

...Last bubba of the day in a minute...gorgeous outside, heading out to put in my miles...

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."