BJP’s Victory in the Northeast Election- Don’t Over-read

It is a remarkable victory that the BJP has achieved in Tripura and Nagaland. It has sidled its way into the position of kingmaker in Meghalaya.

That said, we should not see this victory as a resurgence of the Modi wave or a sure-shot BJP victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In fact, victory in the northeast will not dilute popular disenchantment with BJP rule in Rajasthan. It differs a little when comes to Karnatka, where Sidharamaiah seems well set to resist BJP effort to dislodge him.

BJP won the election over tribal voters and unemployed youth in Tripura, but this trick won’t work in Madhya Pradesh, where farmers commit suicide and get beaten up by police with morose on regular basis.

The results of elections to Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will more likely set the background for the May 2019 general elections than the pyrotechnics in the northeast, where Tripura and Assam alone display a political character. Whichever party runs the government at the Centre automatically has an 80% head start in the northeast, apart from in Tripura and Assam.

The BJP and its leadership are unlikely to be overly influenced by the heady praise being showered on them for their victory in the northeast. They will continue to work hard, to win 2019.