Friday, March 13, 2009

Markets: Where Do We Go From Here?

On Tuesday I said "I'll go with Faber on the timeline, at least three, maybe six weeks before we see a change in direction, i.e. more than a one day move.", referring to Marc Faber's comment:

“Equities could rally between here and the end of April,” Faber said. “The government’s efforts will fail to boost economic activity. They can boost stocks. Stocks have adjusted meaningfully.”

Faber thinks the rally will likely be short-lived, saying that after the March to May rally, the S&P 500 could drop 27 percent to below 500. But on a long-term perspective, he sounded very bullish, saying investors will make money over the next 10 years....MORE

Using the low I.Q. approach* to investment analysis, refined by yours truly, while we will have some down days in the next two weeks, the trend will be up.Then come the first quarter earnings reports and the crystal ball gets a bit cloudier.

One of two paths will emerge.a) Earnings are bad enough to shock investors into a type of photo-realism:

where you see detail (granularity, in the biz) that may not actually be real but is scary nontheless. Orb) Earnings surprise on the upside, a mild euphoria emerges and stocks move higher, unfettered by economic realities until we reach a collective Wile E. Coyote moment, we've gone off the cliff, forward momentum has decreased to zero and gravity is a nanosecond from taking over (I know that's not how trajectories work, it's a cartoon):

Either way we'll head down, just a question of early April or later, and from what level.I'd like to see the latter, if you're half-way competent at this stuff, volatility is your friend.