NWS Forecaster Discussion

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
335 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
Discussion...
visibilities have improved across southeast Texas this afternoon
as the warm front has lifted northward through the region. Some
fog formation is possible again overnight across the coastal
counties but dense fog formation is likely to remain confined to
the coastal waters tonight due to higher winds across the region.
Expect a warm start to the day on Wednesday with overnight lows
only in the lower 60s across the region.
A warm and wet day is expected for much of Wednesday Wednesday
with widespread light showers expected ahead of an approaching
cold front. Instability is rather limited but there could be a
few isolated thunderstorms mixed in across the region.
Temperatures will reach the low to middle 70s before the front
arrives in southeast Texas. The front should be near College
Station by middle afternoon...Houston by 7pm and off the coast
before midnight. Temperatures will quickly fall behind the front
with light rain lingering. There is a chance that temperatures
will cool enough to support a mix of rain and freezing rain...or
even some sleet...across our far northern counties Thursday
morning. Surface temperatures should be warm enough to preclude
any accumulations but some elevated roadways may become slick
where winter precipitation develops. Precipitation will end from
north to south beginning late Thursday morning...ending the
threat. Friday will start quite chilly with temperatures across
our northern counties into the upper 20s and a light freeze
extending into the coastal counties.
Little change to the extended forecast this afternoon. Rain
chances will increase late Saturday into Sunday as an upper trough
moves across the region. 33/38
&&
Marine...
fog appears to have lifted over parts of the bays/intracoastal
water- ways this afternoon...but local webcams are indicating that the
fog banks have yet to completely dissipate. As such...no changes
for the dense fog advisory already in place for our marine areas
tonight/overnight (and which will likely be extended further for
most of tomorrow). No changes either with the forecast of very
strong/gusty offshore winds dev- eloping across the area tomorrow
night in the wake of the cold front that has been previously
advertised. Gale watches are already in the forecast for Wednesday
night/thurs...with a fair amount of confidence that it will be
upgraded to warnings before all is said and done. The likeli- Hood
of prolonged northerly winds could also produce issues with low
waters levels for locations around the bays. 41
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 62 70 32 37 27 / 30 80 60 30 10
Houston (iah) 63 76 37 41 30 / 20 40 70 30 10
Galveston (gls) 62 71 41 42 35 / 20 30 50 40 10
&&
Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...dense fog advisory until 4 am CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Galveston.
GM...dense fog advisory until 4 am CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.
Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Gale watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon
for the following zones: waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 nm.
&&
$$
Discussion...33/38
aviation/marine...41