I am a mechanical engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt by training, and have come to love the beautiful game in my adult life. I turned to my numerical training after becoming a Seattle Sounders FC and Arsenal supporter in 2009 in the hopes of accelerating my understanding of the new game I loved. I've been writing my own blog for over two years, and have written for such outlets as "The Tomkins Times", "The Transfer Price Index", and Howler Magazine. My goal is to advance the understanding of the English Premier League and Major League Soccer through numerical means.

How the Two-Legged Conference Final Will Impact MLS Cup

Who would have been the biggest beneficiaries of the 2012 MLS Playoff format if it had been used 2003 through 2011? The 2008 Columbus Crew.

A few posts ago this blog laid out the penalty ambitious teams that go deep into the US Open Cup and the CONCACAF Champions League pay when it comes time for the MLS playoffs. It seems that the format chosen by MLS – two-legged instead of a single match – provides an even more significant penalty for teams with a greater number of matches played than their opposition. This penalty will play an even bigger role in the 2012 playoffs, as MLS has changed the format of the conference final from a single match at the higher seed’s home to a two-legged affair. This change is bound to produce a higher likelihood of teams with fewer matches in the MLS Cup.

Given that the conference final format is new, how can the potential effect of the change in be calculated? There is a way to do this via the nine years of related MLS playoff format data available, which can then be used to infer long-term future outcomes of the 2012 playoff versus the previously used formats. A Monte Carlo model is used to generate 10,000 post-season outcomes for each MLS playoff from 2003 through 2011, with the odds of each playoff round’s outcome determined via the factors highlighted in the previous post on this topic. The 10,000 simulations from each season are then compiled into one list for all nine seasons with all of the teams’ attributes, and that list can then be queried as to the percent of any particular outcome associated with any particular attribute. Two lists are made for this purpose – one based upon the actual format of the playoffs at the time they were contested and another based upon the 2012 format.

First, how does the use of the 2012 playoff format impact the teams who qualify for the MLS Cup? The table below provides just such a breakdown based upon the club’s additional matches from a baseline team that had the lowest number of matches played in each year’s playoffs. Percentages for each of the two playoff formats are provided – the actual format at the time and how things would have been different had the 2012 format been used that season. The difference between the two formats is presented on the far right via the “% Change” column, with a positive difference meaning the 2012 format raises the likelihood of a team with such a difference to the baseline would reach the MLS Cup. A negative difference means the 2012 format will make it less likely such a team would make the championship match.

Teams who play any more than four additional matches than the team with the least number of matches played in the playoffs pay a clear penalty compared to those who play four or fewer additional matches. Using the playoff formats at the time, a team with four or fewer additional matches had an 85.9% likelihood of making the MLS Cup. With the 2012 rules, that number rises by nearly 6% to 91.8%. This exact number of matches is key, because it directly corresponds to the minimum number of additional matches a CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) group play participant will accrue versus the other 15 MLS teams not in the continental tournament. Yes, the situation has improved versus last year when CCL contained six group play matches. Yes, the situation has also likely improved given the US Open Cup has been moved so that it concludes much earlier in the season than in years past. Perhaps fatigue and player rotation will play less of role in the 2012 playoffs. Nevertheless, clubs that perform well in extra-MLS competitions can expect to contest well more than four additional matches per year with deep runs into the US Open Cup and the two to six additional matches from the knockout rounds of CCL on top of that tournament’s four group play matches. Perhaps the best example of this phenomenon is Seattle Sounders FC, who have played 11 more matches than the baseline in both 2010 and 2011. Consequently, their odds of making the championship game were literally 0% in 2010 and only 4.5% in 2011. Their odds drop even lower if the 2012 conference final format were in use in 2011, with only a 2% chance of qualifying for the MLS Cup. The net result of the changes in the MLS playoff format are that teams who do contest additional matches will be even less likely to make it to the championship match.

As was explained in the last post on this topic, even single match playoffs impart a bit of a penalty on teams that play more matches than their opposition. This penalty can be somewhat offset if the team with the greater number of matches played also earns a better goal differential than the opposition during regular season play. In the most extreme examples the games played penalty can actually be completely overcome for teams that have a significant goal differential advantage versus their playoff opponent. The result of the goals differential factor is that the impact of the 2012 MLS playoffs on the likely MLS Cup champion is slightly better than the impact on the teams that qualify for the championship match.

The same overall increase in determination of playoff success along game differential lines is seen in the concentration of championships in teams who play four or fewer matches, but it’s less biased towards teams who have played the least number of matches. The impact of the 2012 playoff format spreads out more evenly into teams with 1 or 3 more matches played than the opposition. Still, there is a very troubling concentration of championships in those teams that play the least number of matches.

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