Spain on Track for Major Crisis in 2014

Separatists in the Spanish region of Catalonia moved one step closer to independence on Tuesday when the two largest pro-independence parties announced their intention to form an alliance and push for a referendum in 2014. As the New York Times notes, these two parties hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum and have failed to see eye-to-eye for years. The fact that they are now uniting suggests that Catalonia is getting serious about independence.

Madrid did its best to spin the results of the Catalonia election as a defeat for the secessionists, but as we predicted, the new Catalan coalition has united behind the demand for an independence referendum that Madrid says is illegal.

This won’t help Spain, and it won’t help the euro. It is, however, good for the coalition partners in Catalonia, who have shrewdly set a far-away date for the referendum. This will allow Catalonia to extract the maximum level of concessions from both Madrid and Brussels as Europe’s power brokers struggle to avoid a destabilizing crisis in a major EU economy.

Blackmail Madrid as long as possible, and keep the referendum threat real: This is a smart strategy and one that will be hard to beat. Madrid is now backed into a corner: If it squeezes Catalonia, the prospect of secession increases, investors flee all of Spain, and the euro itself comes under pressure.

Madrid is likely to use the threat of a crisis to force better terms from Brussels. Push Spain too hard, it can tell its European partners, and the country will face a crisis that will undermine everything Europe is doing to save its currency.

However things work out, the Catalan coalition agreement is going to cost Angela Merkel’s Germany a lot of money—either in bailout funds for Spain, or in emergency ECB and other spending to keep the euro alive as the Spanish crisis worsenshttp://blogs.the-american-interest.c...risis-in-2014/

Self-determination advances in Spain

The government supremacists in Europe and here at home aren't going to like this:

Separatists in the Spanish region of Catalonia moved one step closer to independence on Tuesday when the two largest pro-independence parties announced their intention to form an alliance and push for a referendum in 2014. As the New York Times notes, these two parties hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum and have failed to see eye-to-eye for years. The fact that they are now uniting suggests that Catalonia is getting serious about independence.
Why would the Catalonians want to break away from the central governmnet in Madrid? Oversized governments have their own agendas, with war topping the list. For example, though opposed by most Spaniards, Madrid participated in DC's illegal invasion of Iraq. Rather that spreading democracy, that war only sowed hatred and needless suffering, including the Madrid Train Bombings of 2004, which were in retaliation for Madrid's entry into that war. As a result, 191 Spanish civilians were killed, and nearly 1,800 were wounded.

And of course, the human toll in Iraq is ongoing.

Add to that Madrid's bottomless appetite for taxes taken from productive Catalonians, which Madrid squanders for its own benefit, and it's no wonder so many have had enough.

“Look, I think, he’s thinking of many different things as he prepares to become the president of the United States, and things that sound like the campaign are not among them,” Conway, who is now on the Trump transition team, said in her interview.

If only Americans could muster this spirit of independence from DC's tyranny. I see no movements this serious here, yet.

Originally Posted by misterx

Yeah, I like cops. They keep the streets safe. Get over it.

“Look, I think, he’s thinking of many different things as he prepares to become the president of the United States, and things that sound like the campaign are not among them,” Conway, who is now on the Trump transition team, said in her interview.

There are major differences between what's happening in Catalonia and what's happening here:

1) Catalonia is very culturally and linguistically different from the rest of Spain. The US has some cultural differences, but they are mostly regional rather than by-state. The only significant linguistic differences in the US are in the Southwest, with the huge Spanish speaking population there and Louisiana with a very small proportion of the population being French speakers. Without these major differences, it is going to be very difficult to get a secession movement going here. Nowadays, 41% of Americans were born outside their state of residence.

2) Catalonia isn't exactly seceding like a US state would, because Spain isn't in itself an actual nation state any more. The 2008 Lisbon Treaty confederalized the European Union. Full federalism is likely in the future. So essentially this is like the Southwestern Spanish-dominated part of Texas seceding from Texas because they don't like the Texas government, but remaining in the United States, because they like the federal government. The only serious EU-secession movements at the moment are in the UK (UKIP) and Finland (True Finns). The UK one is likely, the Finnish one probably isn't. Two of the three major Catalan political parties advocating secession from Spain are actually part of some of the same parties at a European level as their Spanish counterparts.

Democratic Convergence of Catalonia is the Catalan affiliate of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party (ALDE), lead in the European Parliament by this man, the former prime minister of Belgium, Guy Verhofstadt:
Verhofstadt wrote a book called "The United States of Europe", is the honorary president in Belgium of the Union of European Federalists (UEF) and founder of the Spinelli Group (named after UEF founder Altiero Spinelli), a European Parliamentary group of federalists from across the political spectrum.

Democratic Union of Catalonia is the Catalan affiliate of the European People's Party (EPP), traditionally the most powerful party in the European Union. They are federalist to the core, including the word federalism multiple times in their platform. The EPP control the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso:
He's a former Maoist, now Euro-federalist, who famously said "We will need to move towards a federation" in his State of the Union speech this year.

Regardless of where Catalonia goes, it WILL remain in the European Union, so it will continue to share the same currency as Spain and France, the open borders with Spain and France and the debt of Spain and France.

Except as to the rule of apportionment, the United States have an indefinite discretion to make requisitions for men and money; but they have no authority to raise either by regulations extending to the individual citizens of America.

Spainish government stated they will fight this. I'm sure those con artists in the Madrid government will seek help from the CIA/CFR to infiltrate and steer those within the Catalonia territory.

A paradox of the a bright side: with all the sessions and independence declarations around the world, it should bankrupt the US government faster and end their Imperial world order of special interest, which control the oppressive/destructive foreign policies.

"All eyes are opened, or opening to the rights of man, let the annual return of this day(July 4th), forever refresh our recollections of these rights, and an undiminished devotion to them."Thomas JeffersonJune 1826

My own half family live there, though not into politics. My family ancestry is originally from the South. My own mother grew up with the crap that Franco was a good guy. She lived in an era as a child when nobody could really criticise the state. Strangely she still has that view even today when i criticise my dear old Monarch at the Palace, Her Majesty won't find me outside the palace in Uniform

Not going to happen. The Spanish Constitution does not allow the regions to hold referendums on their own and since Spain is a unitary state, as opposed to a federal union of sovereign states as the US, all changes to regions' powers must be done by the central government in Madrid.

Anyway, an independence referendum most likely would be opposed by a large majority in Catalunya. Catalans don't even make a majority of the autonomous community's population. They will probably get more autonomy on fiscal matters, probably something along the lines of the autonomy granted to the Basques. More than that I cannot see happening, and even a large portion of Catalans don't support outright independence, but more autonomy for the community, just as in Scotland.

Yes, and it most likely will fail. The only reason they're able to hold it is because the Conservative in Westminster agreed to allow it, the Scottish Parliament (which derives all it's powers from statutes devolving power to them from Westminster) does not have the power to call a referendum. The UK, like Spain, is a unitary state, meaning all changes must be approved by the central government in Westminster.

There is a big difference between Scotland and Catalunya, though. Scottish people make up 88% of the population in Scotland, but Catalans make up only about 40% of the population in Catalunya.

Not going to happen. The Spanish Constitution does not allow the regions to hold referendums on their own and since Spain is a unitary state, as opposed to a federal union of sovereign states as the US, all changes to regions' powers must be done by the central government in Madrid.

Anyway, an independence referendum most likely would be opposed by a large majority in Catalunya. Catalans don't even make a majority of the autonomous community's population. They will probably get more autonomy on fiscal matters, probably something along the lines of the autonomy granted to the Basques. More than that I cannot see happening, and even a large portion of Catalans don't support outright independence, but more autonomy for the community, just as in Scotland.

WTF? Just throw a wet blanket on the whole thing "Confederate". I'm sure you proud the South is still part of the Union.

Originally Posted by misterx

Yeah, I like cops. They keep the streets safe. Get over it.

“Look, I think, he’s thinking of many different things as he prepares to become the president of the United States, and things that sound like the campaign are not among them,” Conway, who is now on the Trump transition team, said in her interview.

WTF? Just throw a wet blanket on the whole thing "Confederate". I'm sure you proud the South is still part of the Union.

I'm not saying that Catalans don't have a fundamental right to secede, I'm saying that Constitutionally the referendum can't and probably won't go forward without the central government's blessing. I'm also saying that even if the referendum did go through, it's likely to fail. Catalans don't even make up a majority in Catalunya and even a large amount of Catalans aren't in favor of independence.

The most likely scenario is a revision of Catalunya's autonomous powers to give them more financial autonomy in the same way that the Basques have been granted by the central government.

It's important to take into consideration that Spain is not a federal state, it is a unitary state. Catalunya is not a sovereign entity, it is a autonomous region created by the central government.

I understand the politics and circumstances aren't the same as they are here. And I may get a little caught up in any movement away from a central government.... I guess we will just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Originally Posted by misterx

Yeah, I like cops. They keep the streets safe. Get over it.

“Look, I think, he’s thinking of many different things as he prepares to become the president of the United States, and things that sound like the campaign are not among them,” Conway, who is now on the Trump transition team, said in her interview.