2012 PBA Philippine Cup Semifinals Roundup and Finals Preview

Rain or
Shine and Talk N Text finished their respective semifinal series in six games,
with ROS dumping San Mig Coffee last Thursday and TNT dropping the bomb on
Alaska a day later.

Smart-Gilas
2.0 starting shooting guard Jeff Chan outplayed former National Team player
James Yap anew, scoring 27 points on the strength of three treys while also
grabbing 7 rebounds and dishing out 3 assists. Yap, meanwhile, wound up with
only 6 points as he missed all but 2 of his 15 field goal attempts.

Paul Lee
backstopped Chan’s shooting with 15 points of his own, while the surprisingly
solid Jervy Cruz combined with old reliables Gabe Norwood and Beau Belga to
shore up the frontline. Cruz, Norwood, and Belga had a combined output of 31
points and 31 rebounds as the Painters outmuscled the Mixers on the boards,
62-46. PJ Simon and Marc Pingris continued to play splendidly for SMC with 29
and 15 points respectively. Pingris also grabbed 11 rebounds in the losing
effort.

TNT relied
on five guys scoring in double-digits as the Texters finished off the upstart
Aces in Game 6. Jayson Castro, Jimmy Alapag, Jared Dillinger, Kelly Williams,
and Ranidel De Ocampo all broke the 10-point barrier to typify the depth of
TNT. Despite both Calvin Abueva and Sonny Thoss putting double-double
performances for Alaska, the Texters were still able to punch through and book
a ticket to defend the Philippine Cup they've won for two years running.

Kelly Williams slams one home as the TNT Tropang
Texters finally disposed of the Alaska Aces.

Unlike their
semifinals series against the San Mig Coffee Mixers, the Rain or Shine
Elasto-Painters won’t have a big size disadvantage against the Texters. Nobody
on TNT’s roster stands taller than 6’7, which means the Painters should be able
to match up really well. The flipside, of course, is that, unlike the Mixers,
the Texters aren’t very fond of posting up their bigs (unless that big is Ali
Peek). Kelly Williams is more potent as a high-post penetrator, and Ranidel De
Ocampo is like a mini-Kevin Love. In that regard, ROS will have to adjust how
its bigs play D. Their trademark physicality in the low post might not be as
effective against bigs that shoot from the outside or penetrate off the
dribble.

Jervy Cruz
has to continue playing really well for coach Yeng Guiao to have a clear chance
at his first All-Filipino/Philippine Cup title. Right now, Cruz is the top big
man for the Painters, averaging 11.2ppg and 8.4rpg despite being severely
undersized at his position.

Another key
match-up is the one between super swingmen Jared Dillinger and Gabe Norwood.
Both are unusual swingmen in the PBA because they’re both big for their
position (both are 6’5), have good handles, have good lift, and are dangerous
from pretty much anywhere on the court. They might as well cancel each other
out, but whoever outplays the other will definitely tip the scale in his team’s
favor.

Given its
combined production(38.8ppg and 36.7% 3pt shooting), the troika of Jayson
Castro, Jimmy Alapag, and Larry Fonacier is definitely one of the most
offensively potent in the country. All of those guys can put the ball on the
floor. They can all spot up from practically any range. They all have good
court vision. It’s a tough match-up for any team.

But the
Painters’ own guards might just be the perfect foils against such a dangerous
offensive juggernaut. Jeff Chan and Paul Lee pair up for more than 28 points
and nearly 6 assists per outing. Both those guys can shoot from the parking
lot, and both can penetrate effectively. It’s like they’re carbon copies of
their TNT counterparts. And that leaves Jireh Ibañes as the x-factor. If he can
consistently put the clamps on someone like Castro or Fonacier like he did
against James Yap, then the Painters should negate the Texters’ sharp
backcourt.

Whereas TNT
coach Norman Black will rely on the explosiveness of Ryan Reyes, Ali Peek, and
Harvey Carey (all of whom played starter’s minutes at one point or another in
their careers), coach Yeng will rely on the strength in numbers of his fiery
bench mob.

At his best,
Reyes is as good as any of TNT’s starters, and the team will need him to step
up in case anybody gets ice cold. Peek is the only legitimate pound-it-down-low-back-to-the-basket
player on the Texters’ lineup, and though he’s pretty grizzled already, he can
still pivot and put up that baby hook when needed. Carey, for his part, is like
Udonis Haslem – he just does the dirty work and can get the occasional free
bucket from fifteen feet and closer.

On the other
end, the Painters will be counting on breadth more than depth. Quiñahan has the
heft to bang bodies with TNT’s bigs, while Rodriguez can provide some nifty
post moves. Both Tiu and Araña can spew fire like Chan, but can also play D
like Ibañes even as Matias’s hustle cannot be overlooked. I expect the TNT
starters to probably outscore their ROS counterparts, but I also think the ROS relievers
should have an edge against the TNT second unit.

Coaching: Norman Black vs Yeng Guiao

Though Norman
Black is the more decorated coach, one cannot deny the grit and bravado that
Yeng Guiao brings to the table.

Also, Black
hasn’t coached in a PBA Finals series in a long time, while Guiao was the most
recent champion coach after ROS copped the 2012 Governors’ Cup.

It’s a
classic case of one coach leaning on his tried-and-tested system (Black), while
the other leans on his players’ ability to adjust and free-wheel (Guiao). In
the end, however, I think championship experience and poise will come to fore,
and, at least for now, Black’s crew might have an ever so slight edge there.

Key
Question:

Can TNT handle ROS's physicality?

The Painters
are known for being a team of roughhousers, and I’m pretty sure they won’t be shy
when it comes to trading sweat and some hits with the Texters.

Can TNT
handle it? They had some licks against the Aces in the semis, but ROS will be a
bigger and more menacing monster. If they want to keep their title as
Philippine Cup Champs, then the Texters must find a way to stand up to the ROS
bullies.

Overall, I think it’ll be a close
series. I’d be surprised if there would be any blowout games here. If Paul Lee
can blossom into a real playmaker and not just a volume scorer, then ROS might
just pull out four wins, but, as things are, I believe TNT is the better title pick.

Let’s all be
happy as we look forward to a tight and physical series that will showcase some
of the best talents in Philippine Basketball. In the end, though, I see the
Texters winning in seven games.

Game Recaps:

RAIN OR SHINE
ELASTO-PAINTERS over SAN MIG COFFEE MIXERS, 90-83

The Rain or
Shine Elasto Painters booked their first appearance in the Philippine Cup
finals, dispatching the San Mig Coffee Mixers, 90-83, in Game Six of their
best-of-seven semifinals series Thursday at the SM Mall of Asia Arena.

“I’m really
glad it’s over, at least for this series,” said a relieved Yeng Guiao after the
game.

“It’s either
we finish them off in Game Six, or they finish us off in Game Seven. If this
series had gone to Game Seven, our chances of winning would be really low.”

Sharpshooter
Jeff Chan bounced back from a cold shooting outing in the last game, exploding
for 27 points to pace the Elasto Painters, who are in the championship round of
the second straight tournament after winning last season’s Governors’ Cup. Paul
Lee, who was in the midst of a two-game slump, added 15 points.

“Jeff and Paul
came back to life when we really needed them,” said Guiao.

Rain or
Shine, banking on fresher legs with a longer rotation, turned on the heat in
the second half. After San Mig Coffee posted 52 first half points, the Elasto
Painters imposed their will after the break, limiting the Mixers to just 31
points after the first two quarters.

“We had a
very simple game plan: to keep running the whole game, keep the pace fast,”
said Guiao.

“It worked.
I felt that after one, one and a half quarters, they will tire out. And they
did tire out.”

A Chan layup
pushed the Rain or Shine lead to 11 points, 84-73, with less than five minutes
in the game. San Mig Coffee made one last push, answering with a 7-0 run capped
by a Peter June Simon layup with less than two minutes left.

But Rain or
Shine struck back quickly with a Jervy Cruz three-point play that broke the
back of the Mixers with a minute and a half to go in the game.

Simon led
the charge for San Mig Coffee, scoring 18 of his game-high 29 points in the
first half. But James Yap was once again missing for the Mixers, posting just
six points on 2-of-15 shooting from the field. It marked the third time in the
last four games wherein Yap was held to below seven points in the series.

“We’re
really just lucky that their guys don’t explode at the same time. James was
really struggling again,” said Guiao, who will be making his third appearance
in an all-Filipino tournament against the winner of the other semifinals duel
between Talk ‘N Text and Alaska.

James Yap's terrible Game 6 performance led to
the Mixers getting ousted from the semifinals.

Jeff Chan is all smiles as his Painters advance to their
second Finals series in a row.

Paul Lee helped propel the Rain or Shine Elasto-Painters
to their first Philippine Cup Finals.

TALK N TEXT TROPANG
TEXTERS over ALASKA ACES, 83-78

The Talk ‘N
Text Tropang Texters are back where they belong.

Fighting
back a spirited Alaska squad, the two-time defending champions pulled off an
83-78 victory over the Aces in Game Six of their best-of-seven Philippine Cup
semifinals series Friday at the Cuneta Astrodome.

The win gave
Talk ‘N Text a 4-2 series victory and a ticket to the finals of the
all-Filipino tournament for the third straight season. Awaiting them in the
finals is Rain or Shine, the reigning Governors’ Cup titlist that booked the
first finals seat with a victory over San Mig Coffee in their own semis series
Thursday.

“We
certainly have gone through a tough series here, which will prepare us for Rain
or Shine,” said Talk ‘N Text coach Norman Black.

The underdog
Aces battled Talk ‘N Text to a tight opening half that saw the Tropang Texters
take a narrow 42-41 lead. Calvin Abueva carried the fight for Alaska in the
first two quarters, ending the half with 17 points and nine rebounds to finish
with 23 and 13 for the game.

“Hats off to
the Alaska team,” said Black. “They will be a force to be reckoned with in the
future.”

The game was
nip-and-tuck for most of the third and fourth quarters before Talk ‘N Text
broke loose in the fourth quarter behind captain Jimmy Alapag, who scored all
15 of his points in the second half. A 7-2 run capped by an Ali Peek jumper
pushed the Talk ‘N Text lead to nine points, 80-71, with just little over three
minutes left.

JVee Casio
completed a crucial four-point play in the next possession, cutting the Alaska
deficit to just four points. But both teams failed to score over the next
couple of minutes, leaving Alaska forced to foul with just 15 seconds left.

After two
Alapag free throws, Dondon Hontiveros hit a three-pointer to cut the Talk ‘N
Text lead to four points, 82-78, with 8.4 seconds left. Ranidel De Ocampo split
his free throws in the ensuing play, and Talk ‘N Text completed a stop in
Alaska’s final possession to seal the win.