But then, I have recently heard this caveat, “But prices are be being driven artificially high by investors,” Blackrock is commonly cited as one hedge fund investing in housing. There is atleast one other…

True? False? Partly True? I think mostly False, let’s sort this out.

Home sales have risen dramatically these past 6 months, averaging 25-35% higher on a volume basis than the same month one year before. See our market reports here and here. Prices are on the rise as well, Case-Shiller reported a nationwide Tp Twenty Market increase of 10% in March, 2013 when compared to March 2012, and here in Charlotte it was 7% – the largest year over year rise in the index history (2000).

But there is another meme that states that the dramatic rise in prices could be due to massive investor (hedge fund) home buying, companies like Blackrock are cited, and in some markets they are buying “Lots” of homes.

I believe those investors are here in Charlotte. I have run into several multiple offer situations, all on nice properties under $200,000. I submitted 2 listings above the 200k threshold, one at $245,000 and another at $409,000, and neither were “acceptable” to the investors, leaving me to believe they are looking only or mostly at the high return on $120-150K properties.

There is also research. ‘Housing Pulse”, the tracking survey of 2000 real estate agents by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Financing Housing Pulse Survey show that “move up” buyers account for 42% of the market, First Home Buyers 36% and Investors come in at under 22%. So, 78% of the market is made by real home buyers.

I expect a total market valuation- the closed property value of traditional buyers, versus the closed property value of investors, the traditional Buyer would far exceed the investor since the investor concentrates in lower priced easy to rent homes.

us gov shutdownAfter the best year in real estate and lending since 2007, the 4th quarter is at risk due to the government shutdown.

Approved loans can probably move forward, but the next batch of loans, in application stages across the country are being held up for a variety of reasons, the first is lack of employees at the IRS to verify borrower income.

Today’s lender uses the IRS 4506 form on more than 90% of all loans to verify a borrower’s income. But that is not all.

The low down payment rural assistance loan provided by the USDA is also not operating on any level, even computer generated pre-approvals. So many rural sales and deals are currently derailed.

The FHA’s computer pre-approvals are working, but you aren’t going to be able to talk to anyone about the application. So far, the easy ones are proceeding. The rest? Very slow or not at all.

VA? In the best of times loans guaranteed by the Veterans Administration can be difficult, today? I am worried for veterans an active military members trying to get a loan through the VA.

The Bottom Line

Think of the mortgage market as a giant superhighway of loans, 12 lanes wide and moving fast. Cars (loans) stretch as far as your eye can see. But 50 miles ahead (call it 20 days of shutdown) there is a horrible, in this case avoidable, accident. All the cars are now stopped or moving at a crawl. While the cars are still trickling past the accident, the resulting log jam will quickly cause people to park their car (loan) and walk away. This is how we go from a traffic jam to gridlock in the US mortgage market. Without the ability to secure financing, the mortgage and real estate industry comes to a crashing halt.

Each new home purchase and loan closing generates an estimated $50,000 in economic growth. We learned in 2008 that as the real estate market goes, so goes our economy. Do not be fooled by those saying “its not a big deal.” It is a big deal; very big indeed. This is not a partisan issue. Americans oppose a government shutdown tied to the ACA (Obamacare) 72% to 22% according to Bloomberg News. This is a staggering figure! I can’t think of an issue, including health care, that is worth taking a wrecking ball to our economy, and if this dysfunction drags into the debt ceiling “debate”, the world economy with it.

One of the biggest questions regarding the shutdown is how will it affect housing?
As a Realtor, it does NOT directly affect me, but indirectyl? YES. Since most of our buyers need loans, and the Federal government is active in the lending market, that is where our concerns lie. Specifically prospective buyers’ access to new home loans. After all, more than 90% of all loan activity is underwritten, insured, or owned by the government and its affiliated entities.

Realtors, home buyers, home sellers, mortgage folks-we all want to know, what is the affect on us?
This is what we know, or think we know, on Day One. There are a few immediate concerns and the 4506 suspension is at the top of my list because it may affect every loan in process:

• The IRS has suspended all 4506T processing. This is the verification process of past income. With no guidance from investors or the agencies on this topic we are basically in a holding pattern and following current procedures that state we cannot close a loan with verification of the W2 or tax returns used in the file.

• USDA commitments will cease this morning and any USDA loan in the system without a commitment issued will not be able to close.

• FHA/VA will continue to insure and guarantee loan files, however any manual request (example: requesting a case number be cancelled to allow a new case to be processed) will not be processed. Currently both the VA Portal and FHA Connection are up and running so we can order case numbers, however if either system goes down it may take an extended period to get back on line.

• For existing and new customers who are government employees, verification of employment may be delayed or impossible to obtain during the shutdown. Those government employees who are furloughed will not be able to close on a mortgage until the government is up and running again.

The 4506 Suspension is the key, one lender says it will process loans without this verification, another lender says no. Stay tuned.

Marvin Creek Home Priced in the Low 600s! | A large wooded lot, 5br/4ba +3rd floor bonus, guest room down, 2 story great room, Marvin Schools, see a birds-eye-view!

5024 Groves Edge Lane is a lightly lived in, large family home, ready to go! Located in amenity rich Marvin Creek, this Toll Brothers community has miles of walking trails plus a fantastic amenity center including clubhouse, lazy river and waterslides! Impeccably landscaped, this 5 BR, 4 BA, over 4,000 sqft is just listed in the low 600’s? Yes please! See photos in video

In addition to the large home, you also have .75 acres of flat, well landscaped property. A large fenced in backyard backing up to a natural area with lots of trees will provide you with some shade and privacy to the rear.

All this with the very well regarded Marvin Schools too! Marvin Elementary is less than a mile away!

PS – If you see an error box above, well sorry, That means this home has sold.

Finally some research on something we Agents have known a long time! Home buyers will pay a premium for high quality schools. This past summer, Redfin the national web-based real estate company from Seattle compared home sales from neighborhood to neighborhood by square foot, even more particularly homes within the same neighborhood but different schools, and found the homes with the high quality schools sold on average for $50/sf more than their more “average” counterparts.

Using MLS data to calculate median sales prices (as we do here often) they were able to identify “Homes just a short distance apart with nearly identical attributes are selling for drastically different prices”

Trying to improve your home’s value? Support your local public school!

Housing equity rose 30% or more than $2 Trillion dollars over the past year
Home purchases rebounded, prices rose, and mortgages continued to decline. This rise is value is a relief to homeowners and the Realtor’s trying to help them move on to their next stage in life. It contributes to rising consumer confidence, and rising optimism about future home prices. The total value of all homes in the US is still 18% below its pre-recession peak- which is probably a good thing overall.