Before the Conventions: Insights into Trump and Clinton Voters July 8-12, 2016

Transcription

1 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, July 14, :30 pm EDT Before the Conventions: Insights into Trump and Clinton Voters July 8-12, 2016 Trump supporters have negative views of the impact of globalization and international trade on the U.S., and are less inclined to allow illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. They are more likely to support building a wall along the U.S. border and temporarily banning Muslims from entering the country. Many say the country s values are changing in a way they disagree with, and they are pessimistic about the future for the next generation. Voters who back Trump are also more likely to call the U.S. the greatest country on earth, and to think that in today s economy everyone has a chance to get ahead in life. Clinton voters hold more positive views of the impact of globalization, and are more optimistic about the American job market. However, they are more likely to say that only a few people have a chance to get ahead in life. They oppose banning Muslims or building a wall along the Mexico border, and half feel that too little attention has been paid to the problems of minorities. Trump s and Clinton s supporters have at least one thing in common majorities of both express frustration towards Washington DC. The State of the Race Heading into the two parties conventions, the race for President is now tied, a change from last month when Hillary Clinton led by six points. 40% of registered voters now say they will back Clinton, while 40% say they ll vote for Trump Presidential Vote Choice (Among registered voters) Now 6/2016 5/2016 4/2016 Hillary Clinton 40% 43% 47% 50% Donald Trump Other (vol.) Won t vote (vol.) This poll also sought to delve more deeply into the views that underlie voters candidate choice, and identify attitudes on policy issues and views of the country that characterize each candidate s voters. Globalization, Trade and Jobs Trump supporters are noteworthy in their negative views of the impact of globalization, trade with other countries and the availability of U.S. jobs. Still, they think everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the U.S. Most Clinton s supporters think more is gained than lost from globalization, and are more inclined to think only a few people have a chance to get ahead. 1

2 55% of voters overall say the U.S. has lost more than it has gained as a result of globalization, but even more Trump supporters -- three in four -- think the country has lost due to globalization. In contrast, half of Clinton voters think globalization has had a positive impact on the U.S. Has U.S. Gained or Lost from Globalization? Gained more 35% 17% 53% Lost more Both equal Similarly, most voters think that trade with other countries costs the country jobs; Trump voters are especially likely to say this, Clinton voters are less apt to. Trade with Other Countries Creates U.S. jobs 19% 12% 27% Loses U.S. jobs No effect Voters are divided as to the future for good jobs in the U.S.: 47% say the best years are behind us, while 47% say the best is yet to come. Trump voters are much more pessimistic about the future of U.S. jobs than Clinton voters; a majority of her supporters are optimistic. When it Comes to Availability of Good Jobs for Americans Best years are behind us 47% 55% 36% Best times are yet to come But it s the Clinton voters who are more apt to say that only a few people at the top have a chance to get ahead in today s economy. Who Can Get Ahead in the U.S.? Everyone has a fair chance 38% 51% 30% Just a few at the top have a chance And the poll finds greater economic anxiety among Trump supporters too; they are more likely to feel uneasy about their personal finances over the next few months. 2

3 Confidence in Personal Finances Very confident 24% 24% 27% Somewhat confident Somewhat uneasy Very uneasy Immigration, Walls and Muslims While most voters, and a large majority of Clinton supporters, oppose building a wall along the U.S.- Mexico border, fully 73% of Trump voters support it. Among voters overall, 57% now oppose it, up from 48% in January. Building a Wall along the U.S.-Mexican Border 1/2016 Favor 39% 73% 13% 47% Oppose Two in three Trump supporters support a temporary ban on allowing Muslims to enter the U.S. something 87% of Clinton voters oppose. Should the U.S. Temporarily Ban Muslims from Entering the Country? Yes, should ban 35% 67% 11% No, should not ban And while most voters overall, and most Clinton supporters, think immigrants who are here illegally should be given a chance to stay and apply for citizenship, 44% of Trump supporters think they should have to leave the country. 51% of Trump supporters think they should be permitted to stay, but just 37% think they should be allowed to apply for citizenship. What Should Happen to Illegal Immigrants in the U.S.? Stay & apply for citizenship 60% 37% 82% Stay but not apply Leave the U.S More Trump voters than Clinton supporters think illegal immigrants take jobs away from Americans. Illegal Immigrants Take Jobs Away from Americans 30% 49% 14% That Americans don t want

4 Views on Minorities and the Changing Face of the U.S. There are also differences between Trump and Clinton supporters in their views of minorities. Half of Trump supporters think that too much has been made of the problems facing minorities in recent years compared to just 16% of Clinton voters who say the same. Half of Clinton supporters think too little has been made of such problems. Problems Facing Minorities Too much has been made 32% 51% 16% Too little has been made About right Most voters including most Trump and Clinton supporters think that a future U.S. in which a majority of the population is non-white won t make a difference. But 27% of Trump voters think that will be a bad thing for the country, and a quarter of Clinton voters expect this will be a good thing. ISIS Will a Future Non-White Majority in the U.S. be a Good thing 14% 4% 26% Bad thing No difference Trump and Clinton voters have somewhat different views on how things are going for the U.S. in its fight against ISIS; four in five Trump voters say it is going badly. General Unease? How is the U.S. Fight Against ISIS Going? Well 28% 15% 44% Badly The poll suggests a significant chunk of voters especially those supporting Donald Trump -- are feeling some discontent: many are uneasy with the changes taking place in the country, and pessimistic about the future. But most think the U.S. is one of the greatest or the greatest country in the world, and Trump supporters are especially likely to call it the greatest. 61% of voters say that the country s values are changing in a way they disagree with, and just 15% say the country s values are changing in a way they agree with. Fully 79% of Trump supporters see the country as changing in a way they don t agree with. 4

5 America s Values are Changing in a way they agree with 15% 6% 26% Changing in a way they disagree with Not changing There is pessimism about the future as well in the poll, especially among Trump voters. Nearly half of voters think the future for the next generation of Americans will be worse, rising to 59% among Trump supporters. Future for the Next Generation Will be. Better 23% 16% 30% Worse Same Half of voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Washington, and another 33% are angry. Trump supporters are more apt to say they are angry 44% feel that way. But even those supporting Clinton are unhappy with Washington. Feelings About Washington DC Enthusiastic 2% 1% 5% Satisfied Dissatisfied Angry But despite their frustrations, nearly all voters think the U.S. is one of the greatest, if not the greatest, countries in the world. Six in ten Trump supporters think it is the greatest country. The U.S. is Greatest country in the world 45% 61% 34% One of the greatest countries Not one of the greatest countries

6 President Obama, Congress and the Economy President Obama continues to enjoy higher approval ratings than he has had in recent years 53% approve of the job he is doing the same as last month. President Obama s Job Approval Rating Now 6/2016 5/2016 5/2015 5/2014 Approve 53% 53% 50% 42% 43% Disapprove % approve of his handling of the economy, and 42% approve of his handling of foreign policy. Obama Approval on Economy Foreign Policy Now 6/2016 5/2016 Now 6/2016 5/2016 Approve 50% 49% 47% 42% 45% 42% Disapprove The percentage that thinks the country is headed in the right direction has dropped a bit in this poll 26% now say the country is headed in the right direction, down from 33% last month. 69% say it is on the wrong track. 15% approve of the job Congress is doing, and 79% disapprove. Congressional evaluations have been low for many months now. Congress Job Approval Rating Now 5/2016 4/ /2015 7/2015 Approve 15% 14% 14% 12% 17% Disapprove % say the economy is in good shape, while 50% say it is in bad shape. 24% say it is getting better. Assessments have been similar since the start of the year. Condition of the Economy Now 6/2016 3/2016 1/ / /2015 Good 49% 51% 51% 49% 46% 38% Bad This poll was conducted by telephone July 8-12, 2016 among a random sample of 1,600 adults nationwide, including 1,358 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is four points. The error for subgroups may be higher and 6

7 is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. 7

8 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Before the Conventions: Insights into Trump and Clinton Voters July 8-12, 2016 Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or Gary Johnson? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Jun16b % % % % % Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Mar16d Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q13. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track Don't know/no answer Q14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer

9 Q16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Total Rep Dem Ind May16a % % % % % Approve Disapprove Don't know/no answer Q17. How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Jun16b Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad Don't know/no answer Q18. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same Don't know/no answer 1 * Q30. Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** May16a Enthusiastic 2 * Satisfied but not enthusiastic Dissatisfied but not angry Angry Don't know/no answer Q31. Do you think the future of the next generation of Americans will be better, worse, or about the same as life today? Nov14c Better Worse Same Don't know/no answer

10 Q32. Globalization is the increase of trade, communication, travel and other things among countries around the world. In general, has the United States gained more or lost more because of globalization? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind Feb07b % % % % % Gained Lost Both equal (Vol.) Don't know/no answer Q33. Overall, would you say U.S. trade with other countries creates more jobs for the U.S., loses more jobs for the U.S., or does U.S. trade with other countries have no effect on U.S. jobs? Feb96a Creates jobs Loses jobs No effect Don't know/no answer Q34. Do you feel America s values are generally changing in a way you agree with, changing in a way you disagree with, or not changing much either way? Jan16a* Changing in a way you agree with Changing in a way you disagree with Not changing much either way Don't know/no answer *wording chg: American s culture and values Q35. Which comes closer to your view? In today's economy, everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the long run or in today's economy, it's mainly just a few people at the top who have a chance to get ahead? Anyone can get ahead Just a few people at top get ahead Don't know/no answer Q36. When it comes to the availability of good jobs for American workers, some say that America's best years are behind us. Others say the best times are yet to come. What do you think? May15c Best behind Yet to come Don't know/no answer

11 Q37. Which of these statements best describes your opinion about the United States today? 1. The U.S. is the greatest country in the world, OR 2. The U.S. is ONE OF the greatest countries in the world, OR 3. The U.S. is NOT one of the greatest countries in the world. *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % US is greatest country US is one of greatest countries US is not one of greatest countries Don't know/no answer 1 * 1 2 Q42. Which comes closest to your view about ILLEGAL immigrants who are living in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in the U.S and eventually apply for citizenship, 2. They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. legally, but not be allowed to apply for citizenship or 3. They should be required to leave the U.S. Jan16a Stay & apply for citizenship Stay but not apply Required to leave the U.S Don't know/no answer Q43. Do you think ILLEGAL immigrants coming to this country today take jobs away from American citizens, or do they mostly take jobs Americans don't want? Jul15e Take jobs away Take jobs Americans don't want Both Don't know/no answer Q44. Would you favor or oppose building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to try to stop illegal immigration? Jan16a Favor Oppose Don't know/no answer Q45. Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States, or not? Jun16d Should ban Should not ban Don't know/no answer

12 Q46. In recent years, do you think too much has been made of the problems facing racial minorities, too little has been made, or is it about right? *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Too much Too little About right Don't know/no answer Q47. Some experts predict that within the next 30 years, non-white Americans will make up the majority of the population in this country. Do you think this will be a good thing for the country, a bad thing, or won t it make much difference? Good thing Bad thing No difference Q48. How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its fight against the militant group ISIS? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Jan16a Very well 2 * Somewhat well Somewhat badly Very badly Don't know/no answer Q66. When you think about your own personal finances over the next few months, do you feel very confident, somewhat confident, somewhat uneasy, or very uneasy? May15c Very confident Somewhat confident Somewhat uneasy Very uneasy Don't know/no answer Unweighted Total Respondents 1,600 Weighted Total Registered Voters 1,358 1,250 Republican Registered Voters Democratic Registered Voters Independent Registered Voters

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