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Several Recent Publications

Price adjustment lags and their asymmetries in Vietnam

International Journal of Economics and Business Research (IJEBR), Vol. 17, No. 3, 2019

The paper aims to investigate factors that influence the speed of price adjustments in response to shocks by firms in Vietnam, using a multivariate ordered probit model with survey data. The results indicate that the speed of price adjustment is more likely to depend on the size of shocks and economic conditions than on whether firms are state or time-dependent price reviewers. We document that firms use the rule-of-thumb in price setting tend to adjust prices more slowly in response to shocks than their counterparts who set prices based on the market conditions and that firms whose prices are influenced by competitors tend to be more flexible in reaction to shocks. In addition, we find that menu costs and contracts are the two most important theories in explaining price stickiness; however, they seem to induce firms to respond more slowly only to shocks that drive prices downwards, rather than to shocks that move prices upwards. Finally, the degree of competition, the market share, the size of firms, the practice of quantity discounts, the share of state ownership, and the sector where firms operate all matter with regards to how quickly and asymmetrically firms react to shocks.

Exploiting the trade potential from integration: Analysing the impact of Free Trade Agreements between ASEAN and India and China

China Report 54, 4 (2018): 1–25

In this article, we use the technique of stochastic frontier estimation for the structural gravity model to analyse Vietnam’s bilateral trade and evaluate its exploitation of trade efficiency before and after its free trade agreements (FTAs) with China and India entered into force. The results from Vietnam’s bilateral trade data between 2000 and 2015 show that the ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) has had a positive impact on Vietnam’s bilateral trade flows while we found a remarkably negative effect on Vietnam’s exports but not imports after the entry into force of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). In addition, Vietnam’s participation in the regional trade agreements (RTAs) and FTAs has significantly reduced the costs of trade over time, and these impacts on Vietnam’s imports are much higher than those on Vietnam's exports.

Determinants of the frequency of price changes in Vietnam

British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 15(2), 1-10

The paper aims to study the determinants of price stickiness proxied by the frequency of price changes in Vietnam by using the Poisson regression model with survey data. We find that the frequency of price changes is positively and negatively related with firms’ choice of time dependence and rule of thumb, respectively. Importantly, we also reveal that the coordination failure, the existence of contracts and temporary shocks are the three most important reasons for price rigidity. Finally, we find the degree of competition, firm size, the share of state ownership, quantity discount practice, sales destination and market share all matter for how often firms adjust their prices.

The Impact of Public Investment on Household Income and Poverty reduction: The case of Vietnam

Ninth Vietnam Economists Annual Meeting, Paper No. 51

In the paper, we try to measure the impact of investment in the commune infrastructure on household performance. The panel models with fixed effects are applied for the two-year VHLSS panels in 2010 and 2012 at both household and commune levels. Besides, the quantile regressions are applied to determine the impact of investment in the commune infrastructure on different groups of household income. We found that although investment in the commune infrastructure has no impact on household poverty incidence, it affects the intensity of household poverty, which means that it can make the poor less poor. The empirical evidence also shows that investment in infrastructure at commune level has a positive influence on household activities in the nonfarm sector, and then makes an improvement in household income. However, we only found its positive impact on middle-income and high-income households, while we did not find the evidence on its impact on poor households. Rich households get a higher level of benefits from investment projects in the commune infrastructure compared to poor households.

A boom in private businesses has attracted a large number of unemployed to cities, making some farming redundant in rural areas, while also making a great contribution to economic growth in Vietnam over the years. The study investigates the occupational choices of individuals between entrepreneurship and wage employment by examining the determinants of occupational transition between self-employment and wage employment over time.

Employment Intensity of Non-farm Growth: the case of Vietnam

Partnership for Economic Policy, PIERI-PMMA program, No. PMMA-12673

This paper examines the impact of an increase in volume of chemical fertilizer on the allocation of labor between nonfarm and farm sectors in rural Vietnam during the period 1993-1998. We use instrumental variables approach applied on a panel dataset. The study shows that higher volume of chemical fertilizer reduces the employment of rural households in nonfarm sector and increases the participation in farm activities. Meanwhile, we find that larger volume of chemical fertilizer creates the incentives for households with small agricultural land to work more in farm activities compared to those with large agricultural land.

The determinants of non-performing loans in Vietnamese Commercial Banks: An econometric study

Vietnam's Socio-Economic Development, 77(April 2014), 32-45

The study examines the determinants of bad loans in Vietnamese commercial banks including both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors by using balanced panel data of ten commercial banks in Vietnam from 2005 to 2011. The Pooled least squares estimation technique is used to test all hypotheses. The empirical results support the view that macro-factors, such as, the inflation and the growth in real GDP impact significantly on the level of NPLs over the period of the study. Moreover, the impact of growth in real GDP and Inflation on NPLs is instantaneous. The results also show the significant evidences for the effect of
bank-specific variables such as the previous NPLs ratio, credit growth, bank size, inefficiency and the ratio of loans to assets on NPLs. Among these variables, the previous NPLs ratio and
the credit growth show the strongest impacts on current bad loans.

State Financial Transfers in Environmental Protection: The Case of Vietnam

Journal of Economics and Development, 16(2), 93-120

This paper examines the practice and the effectiveness of the instrument of state financial transfers to the business sector in the implementation of investment in the field of environmental protection through Environment Protection Funds. Focusing on the case of Vietnam Environment Protection Fund, we found that the instrument of state financial transfers including grants, soft loans, accelerated depreciation allowances, tax incentives, and subsidies have propensity for lack of effectiveness due to creating insufficient incentives and increasing burden on the State budget. The application of market-based instruments is more effective but in Vietnam the rate of this figure is only 1% for market-based instruments while most of its budget (99%) spends on soft loans projects. Therefore, the recommendations are proposed to reduce the instruments of state financial transfers and foster use of market-based instruments in environmental protection activities for the sustainable development.