PCs Down 11%, Tablets Up 53% in 2013

SAN JOSE, Calif. — Sales of traditional PCs and notebooks will decline 11.2 percent this year, while tablet sales will surge 53.4 percent, according to figures released Monday by Gartner.

The analyst firm released its forecast one day before Apple is expected to release the fifth generation of its iPad tablet, which ignited the shift.

Gartner predicts that sales of ultramobiles -- a category of thin and light notebooks Intel pioneered -- will double this year and next, but the sector's fairly small size will not overcome declining growth in traditionally x86-based systems.

"While consumers will be bombarded with ads for the new ultramobile devices, we expect their attention to be grabbed but not necessarily their money," Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner, said in a press release. "Continuing on the trend we saw last year, we expect this holiday season to be all about smaller tablets as even the long-term holiday favorite -- the smartphone -- loses its appeal."

Gartner said small tablets hold the best prospects for both revenue growth and profits in mobile systems. "The opportunity for high average selling price (ASP) smartphones is now ending. Growth is expected to come from mid-tier smartphones in mature markets and low-end Android smartphones in emerging markets."

In terms of mobile operating systems, Android will continue to dominate the market; Gartner expects it to take a 38 percent share this year. Apple's iOS continues to grow, but not at the pace of Android, the firm said, and Microsoft Windows sales will dip 4.3 percent this year.

Milanesi said the much-discussed market for wearable devices will not account for significant sales in the near term. "In the short term, we expect consumers to look at wearables as nice to have rather than a 'must have.'"

Gartner's full report, available for sale online, came out one day before Apple is expected to launch a thinner, lighter iPad 5 and an enhanced iPad Mini, along with a refresh of its notebooks.

"When all you do is read email and a few web pages, an entire desktop just seems silly."

Who only does that? Even at home, I mean? Most people have a PC anyway, even if not brand new, that they can use when needed. What college kid, even high school kid, or adult, only does the most trivial sorts of e-mail and web browsing ONLY? I'm incredulous. Or do all of these kids drop out of school because they never turn in a paper or lab report?

I think the numbers speak for themselves here. A LOT of people use a PC only for what can be done online. While anecdotally you may not see many homes without a desktop, they're becoming far more common than you might think. Many that do have desktops are finding that they can often carry out their desired task on their mobile device quicker than it takes for the old beasts to boot up.

The only reason there is a desktop in my home is because I wanted a beast for some hobby game development. (of course, there are 4 laptops and 2 tablets in my home as well).

Actually, I don't think the numbers say what the trade press keeps insisting. The numbers are only saying that people bought a bunch of PCs in the past, and now they're having more fun buying new smartphones and tablets. It doesn't say that they are ditching their PCs.

The average joe appears to be amazingly un-analytical. Our own documents person was also enthusiastic about tablets and smartphones, to the point that she thought she'd never use a PC. But then I asked her some really basic questions, like okay, now do all your work on that tablet. Oh, yeah.

If tablets get more PC-like, perhaps PCs will fade away and be replaced by this new cross-over product. Every time one of these articles comes up, as they do periodically, the same points and counterpoints gate made.

But again, just looking at school-age and college-age kids, just how trivial would their education be, if all they ever needed while going to school was a iPad-like tablet? And all they ever did was e-mail and a little light web browsing? Or is it that schools are back to using typerwiters?

it is an odd assumption to think that you can't do research or write a thesis paper on a tablet. though I do agree that many can't do all of their work on one, there are also many who can. I actually can't think of a single part of my education that would have required more than a current tablet can offer. Then again, I never did any fancy simulations or anything, so I'm back to anecdotal stuff.

Well, not that odd, Caleb. Just one simple example. How many references do you have to have available, while writing any sort of half way non-trivial paper? And what are all these references? Paper books you had to go to the library to check out?

How many tablets allow you to have a lot of open documents simultaneously available, either on a large screen or even on multiple screens?

And of the one tiny screen available on the average tablet, how much screen real estate do you have left, if a good chunk of it is taken up by a virtual keyboard?

I can't fathom what people do at their jobs, at school, or even at home when not just reading the online news perhaps, to be able to get by with just a tablet.

I think maybe you would be blown away by how capable modern tablets are! Sounds like you haven't used one in some time. I happily type away using my bluetooth keyboard while listening to music in one app and swapping back and forth between multiple references while I write (as my job).

The only real problem I have with it is that some javascript elements that make writing in a content management system easier don't quite handle the browser too well.

Did I mention the screen is almost as big as my laptop?

That being said, There are big shortfalls that I had hoped the surface2 would solve (and it may have, I haven't used it). Namely USB host and yes, to one of your points, multiple apps on the screen at once.

I don't think this will even be a debatable thing in the near future though. Why draw the distinction between the desktop and the mobile? I'm more interested in the distinction drawn between the types of operating systems (full OS vs appliance).

I don't want to get this off track, but my son is in college and living at home, so I get to observe his needs. It seems that college guys are now doing most of their class assignments, including research papers, using online applications. This apparently is so that graders can readily utilize anti-plagiarism tools to check the papers for originality.

Even math assignments are done online nowadays, which I believe is a terrible idea. I've found that I remember everything I write, but only half of what I type.

In any event, even business majors will find a PC essential to graduation, as they will all be generating lots of those nasty spreadsheets long before they graduate. Even if a guy can graduate from a university with only a tablet, there's simply no way he will make it in the "real" world without eventually needing a PC or at the very least a tablet PC.

Of course, anything can change, but the discussion here is about how much power is needed for real work. My CEO only travels with a tablet these days, but he has people doing all the real work for him! I need to get my myself promoted most definitely . . .