CleanED proposes two M2 internships on Data disaggregation and projection
for energy/environment modeling with constraint satisfaction programming for
GAINS and LEAP.

The national energy balance of Vietnam is available for 2013-2015, along
with data on socio-economic parameters. As per international practices, the
energy balance table has columns describing energy forms (from Coal to
Electricity), and rows describing consumption sectors. The bottom of the table
distinguishes 5 consumption aggregates (from Industry to Residential). An
additional table subdivides Industry in 12 sectors. The internship will
disaggregate these tables in the space dimension and extend them in the time
dimension, accounting for existing plans and roadmaps.

This internship proposal is designed for a team of two M2 students
interested in renewable energy and energy modeling, one Vietnamese and one
French. They will share data and method, but target different models: GAINS and
LEAP. These two cases will be examined as follows:

● For the GAINS Vietnam case, the timepoints to be produced are 2015, 2020,
2025, 2030, and the geographical division will first be North of Vietnam, and
then in a second step “Greater Hanoi area” and finally selected provinces
within that area. It will consider only the baseline case.

● For the LEAP Vietnam case, the timepoints will be annual starting from
2015, and the geographical division will only be “North, Center and South of
Vietnam”. If time permits, the baseline scenario will be complemented by
alternative greener policy scenarios.

The method is to merge information from the national energy balance with
information from regional statistics, development plans, and domain knowledge,
under the constraints that the end results --regional energy/socio economic
accounts-- must be consistent in term of: cost, price, technical efficiency
transformation process balances volumes and energy content, and other
socio-economic parameters. Geographical disaggregation and temporal projection
is an important part in any integrated assessment modeling. It will open to a
PhD research follow up, oriented on the methodological research.

Vietnam's Renewable Energy Development Strategy (REDS) sets ambitious goals
for developing renewable energy (RE). There are four pillars: mini-hydro,
solar, wind, and biomass. We argue that to reach the biomass energy goals,
Vietnam should build an industrial demonstrator of biomass co-firing in a coal
power plant, as soon as possible.

The official plans give two targets for biomass share in total power
generation. One comes from PDP VII revised (18/3/2016), the other one from the
RE Development Strategy (Decision 2068/QĐ-TTg on 25/11/2015) :

Decision 2068

PDP VII revised

Year

2020

2030

2020

2030

Biomass share in total power generated

3%

6.3%

1%

2.1%

Power generated from biomass

7.8 TWh

37 TWh

2.4-2.5 TWh

10.6-11.7 TWh

Considering the lower target, according to our estimates which assume a
capacity factor of a dedicated biomass power plant at fifty percent, the
installed capacity of biomass-based power generation should be 570 MW in
2020, increasing to 2.5 GW in 2030.

Presently, biomass power is generated in sugar mills, with a total capacity
of 150 MW.

A first biomass power plant is Vietnam is being built with a capacity of
10 MW.

The current and planned biomass power plants capacities add up to
425 MW. There is a gap of about 150 MW of biomass power capacity in
2020, that is 25 % of the total capacity.

Co-firing 5% biomass in three large 1 GW coal
power plants would fill this gap.

The thermal energy needed to produce 2.5 TWh by biomass is 8.3 TWh (30 PJ),
given the conversion efficiency at 30%. Assumed the heat value of biomass at 15
MJ/kg then the amount of biomass required will be 2 Mt. The biomass quantity to
fill the 25 % gap is 0.5 Mt.

We estimate that the production capacity of biomass pellets in Vietnam is
2-3 Mt/yr. In 2015, Vietnam exported 1 Mt of pellet to Korea for co-firing in
coal power plants. Today’s domestic overcapacity for biomass pellets production
led many shops to close. It is more than enough to co-fire three large coal
power plants in 2020 at a 5 % mix ratio.

Recently, the Government has been working on a Roadmap to detail the
implementation plan of the REDS. Most roadmap activities are for legal
framework. There are regulations on supporting mechanisms for grid-connected PV
project, waste to power projects, development plan for bioenergy projects,
establishment of Sustainable Energy Development Fund, and a Renewable Portfolio
Standard. Detailed regulation on the ratio of biomass co-fired in coal power
plant will be available by 2022. A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is to be
approved by 2018. Three percent of energy generated from units above 1 GW
capacity should come from renewable sources.

The Government's roadmap is technology-neutral, and RPS leave it to the
industry to choose the least cost-way to comply. RPS Korea and Japan have led
utilities to choose co-firing pellets. The story could play again in
Vietnam.

We conclude that to prepare for the use of co-firing biomass in large coal
power plants in three years, the industry should build a pilot co-firing
demonstration project now. In addition to demonstrating the engineering and
operational aspects, the pilot will answer critical social, economic and
environmental questions related to long term biomass supply contracts, external
effects on health, air quality, social impact and domestic trade balance
effects.

In Con Dao, 2016 has been successful. Two projects have been implemented in
order to supply this off-grid island: VND2 trillion were invested in the first,
in order to develop power generation and a transmission grid. Added to this,
the current projects of Solar and Wind power plants for a total of VND645
billion. The island is on the way to reach energetic autonomy with cleaner and
cheaper power, and being a leader of off-grid power supply. Phu Quy, Bach Long
Vi and Cu Lao Cham are on a similar path.

Small islands in Vietnam very often face a lack of security in energy
supply. Many communities are not connected to the national grid, which means
that they face difficulties accessing a stable and cheap energy. They have to
find alternatives which are frequently unsustainable and expensive
(particularly the use of individual diesel generators).

In order to understand the challenges and opportunities of renewable energy
in off-grid communities in Vietnam, SNV (a non-profit international development organisation) carried out
a study in the framework of the USAID Vietnam Clean Energy Program and
delivered a report in January 2014. In this
report, they explore the situation in 2014 and the completed, current and
future development programs. The aim of these programs is to permit the
development of these islands, for which energy supply is a key. Among others,
six islands areas were studied: Bach Long Vi, Phu Quy, Cu Lao Cham, Con Dao,
Ninh Tan hamlet and Con Co. This article aims to examine the present situation
on these islands, in order to update the projects mentioned in SNV report.

In 2014, several projects were reported on these islands, but not all of
them completed their term. For example on Ninh Tan hamlet the project intended
in 2012 to provide clean energy to small islands of Van Ninh district in the
near future. Further information is not available for the public for this
project. Con Co Island's project led in 2012 to make the new established
district island a pilot area for off-grid site study (decision
1936/QD-UBND) seems to have collapsed: according to the SNV final report
“the second field visit planned […] has been delayed until further notice”.

However, since 2014, the situation moved forward for some of those islands.
In Bach Long Vi, it is estimated a large growth of energy demand between
2014-2020, a
project started in January 2016 by
Hai Phong Power Company (VND 30 billion invested) to upgrade and enhance a
630kVA generator and rehabilite the diesel power station. It also aims to
replace the current power metering system (which does not meet the current
demand for electricity: power supply is dependent on three generators
generating with capacity of 1.000kVA) by a mixed power source metering system
by 2017. According to the company, it will carry out the construction and
installation of four wind turbines (capacity of 250 kVA per turbine), solars
panels (total capacity of 500 kWp), two diesel generators (total capacity of 2
MVA), and a system of energy storage with power usage regulations (capacity of
storage: 7.48MWh). Another VND 148 billion should be invested to achieve this
project, and it could be extended forward to provide the whole island with
stable power, including areas that can’t be reached by the national grid.

Phu Quy Island also saw further development with the implementation of one
of the three commercial wind power plants in Vietnam, with a capacity of 6MW.
This was part of a
project for boosting electricity supply on this island, with an investment
of EVN SPC (Electricity of Vietnam, Southern Power Corporation) of VND 10
billion. Also, two more diesel generators, a diesel tank and a diesel pipeline
from Phu Quy Port to the power plant were fitted. This has balanced the power
prices to equal the national standard.

Very recently, in
September 2016, in the touristic island Cu Lao Cham, the 630 households of
Tan Hiep commune were connected
to the national grid, a project started in January 2016. The electricity is
provided by a hybrid system of photovoltaic power (28kW) and diesel (60kW),
alongside a project of EAB Company using a hybrid of wind and diesel (1kW).
Depending on the success of the project, Vietnam Electricity aims to continue
trying to connect the whole island to the national grid, in order to provide
cheaper electricity and permit the development of the area.

Last but not least, Con Dao, a tourist island of Ba Ria – Vung Tao province
has seen the births of two projects, in March and October 2016, due to a
predicted increase of 23.4% in energy demand per year from 2015-2020. With a
funding of VND 2 trillion, the first
project's aim is to supply the increase in demand using power generation
and a transmission grid. This is not the first project of its kind on the
island; the Con Dao Wind Power Plant project (capacity of 4MW) and a Solar
Power Plant project (capacity of 4MW) are in development, for a total of VND645
billion. In October,
cooperation began between Duc Long Gia Group and German group Merica with a
pilot project to supply power on the island, and it is expected to be expanded
to the whole country if it is successful.

Despite the collapse of two projects, four have achieved what they set out
to do. Islands in Vietnam could be laboratories to experiment alternatives in
power supply. Not all of the projects realized are completely sustainable, as
diesel oil is still part of the hybrid systems, and the main material for power
generation. But these projects show that Vietnam are becoming more experimental
with renewable energy, such as wind or solar. Off-grids territories in Vietnam
could be the foundations to lead successful and innovative pilot projects and
extend them to the whole country.

In
that previous post, I was wondering if wind power was about to take off in
Vietnam. One and a half years later, the
wind farms map shows four projects in operation and five in
construction:

Tuy Phong

The Tuy Phong onshore wind park in the Binh Thuan province was the first. It
has twenty 1.5 MW turbines (Fuhrlander FL MD/77) from Germany). The Vietnamese
Renewable Energy Joint Stock Company (REVN)
completed
the project in 2012. Plans for sixty additional machines seem to be on
hold, maybe waiting for better economics.

Phu Quy

A 6 MW onshore wind-diesel hybrid system, on the Phu Quy island, Binh Thuan
province. The 3 * 2MW Vestas V80 turbines were inaugurated in 2014. The
Investor PV Power RE (PetroVinam).
I would be curious to see the economics of the project: the electricity retail price on the island is higher than
on the continent and higher than the official feed-in tariff of 7.8 cent per
kWh.

Bac Lieu

The Bac
Lieu project in the south west has a 99.2 MW capacity, with sixty two 1.6MW
General Electric turbines. They are installed "near-shore". This means in the
tidal flats, the area that is sometimes uncovered by the sea. There are better
wind and less neighboors, but the civil engineering for windmill foundations in
2 to 3 meters of sand and mud is harder. Foundations cost 1 million USD apiece.
Phase 1 was 10 turbines. As a first-of-a-kind project in Vietnam, it took 2
years to install, cost 2.9 million USD/MW, efficiency 25%. Phase 2 was 52
turbines. Took another 2 years, cost 2.4 million USD/MW; efficiency 30%. This
project started
operation in 2016. As a near-shore project, it benefits from a higher feed
in tariff of 9.8 cent / kWh. It illustrates the importance of learning by doing
when starting a new industry.

Phu Lac

The
Windpark Phu Lac project, also in Binh Thuan province, has 12 Vestas
turbines with a combined capacity of 24 megawatts (MW), for a cost of VND1
trillion (US$46 million), of which 85 per cent comes from the German Bank for
Reconstruction and Development (KFW).
Groundbreaking started in July 2015. It
was connected in September 2016.

Economics

The official FiT at 7.8 cent / kWh was computed on the "avoided cost plus
externality" basis. EVN agreed that the marginal cost of producing electricity
was 6.8 cent/kWh (this is using imported coal), so substituting for wind at
that price is theoretically budget-neutral for EVN. A higher level of Feed-in
Tariff, about 11.2 cent/kWh, is proposed by GiZ and producers, but many
questions remain. The government agreed to use the VN Environmental Protection
Fund for the 1 cent/kWh difference in the current FIt, but that fund was
supposed to be fed by a percentage of CDM, which does not exist anymore. The
Prime Minister has to approves a higher FiT, and ultimately decide who is going
to pay.

In my opinion, high FITs are good for kickstarting the sector but not
sustainable. Wind power associations claim that their generation costs are
competitive, so the only rationale for preferential treatment is to support the
initial demonstration projects. Today the costs are higher in Vietnam because
the economies of scale have not been realized: infrastructure to manufacture,
transport, build, operate and service wind farms is still weak in Vietnam. The
FiT should be a program, not a policy, with limits to protect the state budget
if it succeed too much. There are many instruments to support the industry.

Conclusion

To sum up, wind power in Vietnam is taking off. Today there are 3 * 2MW + 20
* 1,5 MW + 62 * 1.6 MW that is 6 + 30 + 99 = 135 MW capacity. This is about as
much as Thailand, but the wind potential is much better in Vietnam, even if the
Feed In Tariff is much lower. Compared to my previous report 18 months ago,
opening Bac Lieu phase 2 increased the national capacity by 240%. I am
optimistic that in 18 months, the installed capacity will have at least doubled
again, because here is over 500MW of projects likely to occur before 2020:

In Bac Lieu, the Cong Ly company operating the farm
plans to add up 71 turbines of 2MW to the farm, that is a 142MW
extension.

In Khai Long-Ca Mau, the same company started to build another 100MW of
near shore capacity at the southern tip of the country, with plans for 300MW in
total.

In Tra Vinh, a Korean led project
started in February this year to build twenty four 2 MW turbines, with
plans to double the capacity to 48MW in phase 2.

References: This post is inspired by two presentations I attended at the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) workshop on best practices for wind
development in the APEC region. With special thanks to Mrs. Nguyen Quoc Khanh
and Vu Quang Dang. The high-level expert workshop was held in Hanoi, October
2016. Its report might be made available at APEC Energy
Working Group publications page.

Dr. Eng. Dirk Schwede, top left, with the class of his training course
"Energy Plus House" held on 10th and 11th 2016 at USTH. This class was hosted
by the USTH Energy Department, and organized as a collaboration with energydesign, Envidatec and Ministry of Industry
and Trade (MOIT) of Vietnam.

USTH faculty, staff and student had the pleasure to support the SEA Makerthon Hanoi
2016. We contributed to the organization under the leadership of Fablab Hanoi, and I had the personal
pleasure to give the first prize to the winning team "Seven color rabbits" for
their shared food project. We wish good luck to them at the grand finale in
Singapore next month, organized by the South East Asia Makerspace Network
(SEAMNET).

The galaxy of websites on clean energy in Vietnam has a new star: the
MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme pages at www.gizenergy.org.vn.

Launched in August 2016, this site in both Vietnamese and English provides
information on how the collaboration between Germany's GIZ and Vietnam's
Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) enhance the development of Renewable
Energy (RE) and Energy Efficiency (EE) in Viet Nam. It is full of gems such as
the business directory which students looking for internships should find
usefull, their team directory which I will find usefull before meetings, a
resource center with their publications -- I would start any research on wind
power in Vietnam here. I don't know if the online map of renewable energy
projects in Vietnam at http://gizenergy.org.vn/en/re-projects-vietnam
feels more depressing or more encouraging at the moment, but if they groom it
regularly it promises to be a major information sources for the public, the
media and the experts alike. Here is a preview:

Hosting the Live and
Learn day on sustainable energy on June 25th, 2016. Nothing beats seeing
two busfull of the brightests high-school students from various provinces of
Vietnam at our labs for a full day of science, technology and environment
activities. These guys were totally ready to understand and discuss the IPCC
WG3 talk ! Event supported by the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi.

Post written by Nguyen Trinh Hoang Anh, 2016-03-30. Edited and published by
MHD.

On 18th March 2016, the Government of Vietnam approved the adjustments of
7th Vietnam Power Development Planning in the period 2011 - 2020 with an
outlook up to 2030 [1]. This official decision aims to ensure the national
energy security and meet the socio-economic development objectives of the
country with an average GDP growth of about 7.0% during the period. This
economic growth rate is projected 1.5% lower than in the 7th Power Development
Plan of Vietnam (PDP7) issued in 2011 [2].

The lower projections of economic growth in Vietnam, reduce the demand for
total electricity generation by about 20% and 18% by 2020 and 2030,
respectively. As consequence, the total power installed capacity of Vietnam in
the adjustment would reach only 265 GW by 2020 and 572 GW by 2030 as compared
to 330 GW and 695 GW in the original PDP7. Table 1 presents more changes in the
electricity mix of Vietnam in the updated version of the PDP7.

Power capacity and electricity generation by 2020 and 2030 in the 7th
Power Development Plan (PDP7, 2011) and the adjustment (PDP7-A, 2016)

2020

2030

PDP7

PDP7-A

PDP7

PDP7-A

Total generation

TWh

330

265

695

572

Total capacity

GW

75

60

146.8

129.5

Hydro (except small)

GW

19

18

23

22

Coal

GW

36

26

76

55

Natural gas

GW

12

9

17

19

Renewables

GW

4

6

14

27

Nuclear

GW

1

0

10

4.6

Import

GW

2.3

1.4

7.2

1.6

Compared to the previous version of the plan, this is a huge step forward by
the Vietnamese Government towards climate change mitigation policies. This is
not an European-style energy transition: fossil fuel-based technologies still
heavily dominate the internal energy industry. However, it does meet
the ambitious CO2 reduction objectives of Vietnam at the COP 21.
Cuts of fossil fuel consumption are deep compared to the baseline. Coal
consumption reduction of nearly 30%, changing from 76GW to 55GW, by 2030.

The PDP7-A still develops nuclear power plants to ensure stable power supply
in the future but the plants will not put into operation before 2028. By 2030,
the nuclear power capacity could reach 4.6 GW with its electricity generation
of 32.5 TWh per year, accounting for 5.7% of total generation mix.

Changes in renewable power capacity

2020

2030

PDP7

PDP7-A

PDP7

PDP7-A

Medium and large Hydro

GW

17.4

20.4

25.4

Pumped storage hydro

GW

1.8

1.2

5.4

2.4

Wind

GW

1.0

0.8

6.2

6.0

Biomass

0.5 GW

2.7 TWh

2.0 GW

12.0 TWh

Solar

GW

0.85

12

Table 2 presents differences between power capacities from each type of
renewable energy in PDP7 and PDP7-A. Hydropower sources, including pump-storage
hydropower plants, remain the largest share in the total renewable power
capacity and slightly increase to 25.4 GW in PDP7-A.

Thank to the recent solar energy maps of Vietnam, there is a big move in
development of power sources from solar energy, including the concentrating
stations on the ground and scattering sets on the building roofs, in the
PDP7-A, raising the total capacity of the solar power projects from the current
negligible level to about 850 MW, with a power generation rate about 0.5% of
total generation mix by 2020, 4 GW with – 1.6% by 2025 and 12 GW with – 3.3% by
2030. Note that in the PDP7, solar power was not given any quantitative
projection.

In contrast, wind power, unfortunately, has not received any more attention
in PDP7-A although the government has been issued feed-in-tariffs for wind
electricity generation. The wind power capacity in PDP7-A would even be lower
than its previous projection in PDP7.

Although the PDP7-A presents large decreases in fossil fuel consumption from
now to 2030 for electricity generation, the government has not set any emission
targets for the electricity sector. The most notable points in the PDP7-A are:
(1) deep cut of coal consumption in the power sector due to lower projection of
electricity demand, and (2) excluding hydropower, solar power is expected to be
the most important renewable resource for electricity generation in Vietnam
with its total capacity by 2030 is about 12 GW.

In summary, we believe that this adjustment represents a significant step
towards a sustainable energy sector in Vietnam, and refer to [4] for more
discussion of a low carbon future for the power sector.

References:

The Government of Vietnam, The adjustments of 7th Vietnam Power Development
Planning, 2016

The Government of Vietnam, The 7th Power Development Plan of Vietnam,
2011.

Vietnam Energy, Adjusting Vietnam National Power Development Planning,
2016.

CleanED lab is organizing “Investing
in Clean Energy in Vietnam after COP 21”
from December 16-18, with the support from the French Embassy in Vietnam and
USTH.

Mr. Medhi Salim, Attaché of Science and Higher Education of French Embassy in
Vietnam and Prof. Patrick Boiron, Rector of USTH both join the seminar, and
Prof. Patrick Boiron gives the opening speech.

In the public session of the seminar in the afternoon of December 16, the
speakers, namely Prof. Franck Lecocq – IPCC Lead Author, economic and
sustainable development council of the French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable
Development and Energy; Mr. Gilles Beau, Senior Wind Engineer at The Blue
Circle, a renewable energy developer and investor in Vietnam; Trịnh Bích Ngọc,
a staff at USTH, Vietnamese ambassador at “International training workshop on
climate change and sustainable development” in Gabon; and Mr. Binh Vuong,
development manager at ChangE, a local climate change NGO, make their
presentations and have open discussions with the audience on the topics of
common interest.

The
seminar was organised at L’Espace, 24 Tràng Tiền, Hanoi, and continued until
December 18 afternoon./.

The "Fablab Hanoi meetup at USTH" was organized on Saturday, Oct 21, 2015.
15 people from Fablab Hanoi, CleanED lab at USTH and USTH student were
participated in this event.

The meeting was broken up into 2 sessions: introduction on Fablab (what is
Fablab, roadmap to set up Fablab at USTH, who can get benefit...) and solar
boat building activity.

Fablabs, stand for Fabrication Laboratory, are
available as a community resource, offering open access for individuals as well
as scheduled access for programs. They provide
operational, educational, technical, financial, and logistical assistance
beyond what's available within one lab.

Fablab at USTH could first be a technology club for students who love
technology to learn about it as well as to utilise the facilities at the lab to
startup their own projects.

There is a mounting tension between Vietnamese and international
energy/climate policies. For example, Vietnam plans to build mostly coal power
plants to increase its electricity generation capacity, while many developed
countries are leaving this technology behind. The COP21 is an opportunity for
clean energy in Vietnam, which has plenty of untapped natural ressources. Is
Vietnam at the eve of a green rush ?
The CleanED lab has been created one year ago to contribute to the clean
development of the energy sector in Vietnam. We are honored to invite our
colleagues to share and discuss new results on clean energy technologies,
ressources and policies, with a special interest to Vietnam in the post ­COP21
context.

The workshop is open to disciplinary or interdisciplinary papers drawing
from the Electrical Engineering, Process Engineering, Public Policy, Technology
Assessment, Economics, Social Psychology and other areas of Science and
Technology. Attendance is free, by registration, and a limited number of grants
is available for selected speakers from Vietnam or abroad.

Calendar

October 5th : first announcement for call for
papersOctober 26th : abstract submission deadlineNovember 2nd : acceptanceDecember 16th : pre­event public conference “Investing in
Clean Energy in Vietnam after COP21” at the French InstituteDecember 17th and 18th : academic workshop

To prepare for the COP 21 (Paris, December 2015), Vietnam has just submitted
the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) report to UNFCCC today
29 septembre 2015. Below are some highlights:Business-As-Usual scenario:
The BAU starts from 2010 (the latest year of the national GHG inventory) and
includes the energy, agriculture, waste and LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change
and Forestry) sectors.
GHG emissions in 2010: 246.8 million tCO2e
Projections for 2020 and 2030 (not included industrial processes):
- 2020: 474.1 million tCO2e
- 2030: 787.4 million tCO2eUnconditional contributions: With domestic resources, by 2030
Viet Nam will reduce GHG emissions by 8% compared to BAU, in which:
- Emission intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20% compared to the
2010 levels;
- Forest cover will increase to the level of 45%.Conditional contributions: The above-mentioned 8% contribution
could be increased to 25% if international support is received through
bilateral and multilateral cooperation, as well as through the implementation
of new mechanisms under the Global Climate Agreement, in which emission
intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced by 30% compared to 2010 levels.
A roadmap with methods to implement GHG mitigation measures to achieve Viet
Nam’s INDC will be issued.
For more information, please find the report in attached VIETNAM_S_INDCs.pdf . For more INDCs reports
from other countries, please click HERE.