Democrats Await Their Slaughter

On Election Eve, House Democrats
are preparing to meet their death panel. The party's future looks even
more grim than in the bleak predictions forecast months ago. Last week
it was shocking that Democrats could lose more than 50 seats; now, some are predicting a 70-seat massacre. Poll after poll
shows Republicans have a strong advantage among likely voters, and only
four of their House seats are truly competitive. If the GOP nets more
than 50 seats, Democrats' gains from 2006 and 2008 will be wiped out.

Almost
75 percent of voters disapprove of how Democrat are running Congress,
The Washington Post's Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza report, and almost as
many think the country is on the wrong track. Just a quarter of voters
think the economy has improved at all. Likely voters favor Republicans 49
percent to 45 percent. And Democrats are better liked by registered
voters who'll stay home Tuesday--more than half of the folks opting out
of voting say a new Republican majority in Congress won't make a
difference.

Expect a Massacre, Nate Silver says at FiveThirtyEight.
Silver explains that even though polls are all over the place, his
complex model (which takes into account fundraising, expert ratings, and
local polls) is now forecasting the same results as a simple model
based on the average generic ballot: a 53-seat gain for Republicans.
Silver writes, "if a simple formula and a complex one tell you the same
thing — yeah, Tuesday’s probably going to be a really good night for
Republicans, but we really don’t have a very good idea of exactly how
good — it’s probably time to embrace that conclusion. This is a really
strange election, or at least one that pollsters are having an awfully
difficult time getting a handle on. To claim you can predict Republican
gains within a range of 5 or 10 seats isn’t science — it’s
superstition."

No, a Mass Extinction A USA Today/Gallup poll finds a 15-point advantage for
Republicans among likely voters. (Among registered voters, the poll
finds a 4-point lead for the GOP)."Gallup's historical model suggests
that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House
vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely
voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the
question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the
majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of
error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans
could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that
possible. It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in
favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented
in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in
House voting in several generations." Gallup is predicting a
higher-than-average turnout of 45 percent.

Some
Seemingly Safe Dems Will Lose, Mike Allen predicts for Politico. "House
trends point to a net GOP pickup in the mid-60s or (maybe much) higher.
An exact number is just guessing, but here’s the brutal math: About 40
are leaning R, and roughly 40 more are toss-ups, many of them trending
R. So it’s all about the percentage of toss-ups that you think will fall
to Rs. And in a wave like this, there are going to be some
out-of-nowhere shockers. So you can see that the number could get very
big, very quickly. (We specify “net” because Dems expect to pick up four
R seats.) "

Voters Locked
in for Months, Richard E. Cohen notes at Politico. Calling the Gallup
results "compelling," Cohen reports, "The results are further evidence
that voter attitudes have been set for many months, and that the final
weeks of campaigning and heavy ad buys have had little impact." In late
August, Gallup showed a 10-point advantage for Republicans in the
generic ballot, the biggest edge in 68 years.

Democratic
Denial Politics Daily's Bruce Drake recalls an exchange on Fox News
Sunday between Chris Wallace and Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Van Hollen predicted his
party would hold onto the House. "Let me just say," Wallace warned, "if
you're right, a lot of the so-called experts are going to have plenty of
egg on their faces Wednesday morning." Van Hollen replied, "You're
right about that, and they've been proven wrong many times before, as
you know, Chris." Wallace mused, "Absolutely. We'll know what to eat for
breakfast."

Campaign Staffers Depressed, Politico's Alex Isenstadt reports. “I’m
resigned to the fact that it sucks,” a Democratic Florida pollster told
Isenstadt. A media consultant for Dems mused, “Everybody that is tied
will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose because
of the GOP wave. ... There are going to be some surprises.”