Scott's Column Apple iPad After the Storm, The New Computing Eco-System

April 1, 2010
By Scott Lewis

This month I am going to take another look at the iPad before it goes
on sale, and I will tell you why it will be a huge success. I also
continue last month's computer eco-system with a two phase approach to a
new eco-system.

Now that we have all had time to ponder Apple's iPad I thought it was
a good time to take an objective look at this device...
just before it hits store shelves.

Back in November 2009 and
February 2010 just before the
launch event I wrote what I expected/hoped with the iPad. Right
after the event I published a list of
Hits & Misses. All of this was very emotional. Clearly
I had hopes for a tablet that could be used like a laptop, but with a
screen I could draw on. So everything I wrote was tainted.

Now that the idea of the iPad has sunk in I want to take an objective
look at the device before it hits the streets. This is largely a chance
to set people's expectations, because clearly from all the pundits and
bloggers there is/was a lot of expectations for this
device.

Let's start with dismissing most of what people think
is missing from the iPad:

Camera (front and rear): I kind of get the camera that
points at the user for video conferencing, but why a camera on the back.
Who is going to hold this thing up and take a picture with it. Any lens
that could fit in this device would be no better than the lenses in
phones, so why bother. Apple does not want users of its equipment to
look foolish, and holding this thing up to take a snapshot would look
foolish. Video conferencing is just about as bad. Any video conference
while you were hand holding this thing would be terrible. Think about
the person on the other end dealing with all the shaking of the image.
It's not practical. You would have to have a stand for the device to do
video conferencing and a stand is not included with the product. People
were clearly expecting too much from this device.

Removable Battery: I read this a lot; people complained
this device does not come with a user replaceable battery. Are you
kidding. Apple recently switched their laptops over to non replaceable
batteries. Why would they suddenly reverse that trend here. People
should not have expected this.

No USB Port: This one I get. I would prefer a single
USB port to hook up a camera for transferring pictures than have to buy
a special adapter. This is the one thing I think Apple did miss the mark
on. But this is also not much of an issue. Think about what devices you
would consider attaching to this and you will understand why it does not
have a USB port. Yes, a cheaper camera connection would be nice, but not
a show stopper. They have a dock for a keyboard and Bluetooth for a
mouse (which you don't need with a finger based UI). Speaker companies
are going to tweak their products so the iPad can dock in them for music
playback, picture viewing and recharging. It would be clunky at best to
hook up an external DVD drive to try and watch a movie, but that goes
against Apple's video content strategy of buying all your content from the Apple Store.
So in reality there is little to no need for a USB port.

No SD Slot: I get this one too, but like the USB... how
much do you really need this. How much content do you really need to
keep on a device that is supposed to be a casual use device for web
surfing, e-mail, texting and running simple apps? By design you will be
syncing this device with a computer for the bulk of its content... or
getting it delivered directly over WiFi. So why do you need an SD slot?
You may want it, but you don't need it.

No Multi-tasking: This is the one I sit on both sides
of the fence. I can see using this device for e-mail and still want to
play music in the background or easily switch between e-mail and web
browsing. However, as a casual device I can see how you don't really
need multi-tasking. The iPad is supposed to do basic tasks... one at a
time. If you need to do 4 or 5 things at once that is what a laptop is
for. I can see using this to surf the web from my couch while
watching TV. Taking a little extra time to switch tasks is fine since my
mind is being occupied with the TV while using it.

Not HD: The device is only partly a video playback
device, so it does not bother me that it is not a true HD device. With
the memory it has you won't be loading much HD content on it anyway. And
remember, most HD content is pretty heavily compressed even though it is
at a high pixel resolution. True HD content would suck up more memory
than you can shake a stick at. Blu-Ray movies are on a 50 GB disc... for 1 movie.
The screen size and resolution should be very good for web surfing,
though some sites might be pinched by the 1024 width. With finger
scrolling it will be easier to navigate for width and height than it would with a mouse
and small scroll bars. Just touch the page and move it around... or
pinch the screen to scale it quickly. HD is not an issue for the
intended use of this device.

No Stylus: This was the number one thing I wanted on
this device. But I understand why it is not included. This is a consumer
electronics device aimed at the iPhone and iPod Touch crowd. Those
people don't care about a stylus. They like using their finger to
control their current devices plus like Steve Jobs said, "75 million
people already know how to use the iPad." He is right. That does not
mean I don't hope that they do add stylus support and Photoshop creates
an iPad version of its software for us photographers and artists.

No Mac OS X: Since this device had to run all the apps
in the App Store it is reasonable that it uses the iPhone OS and not OS
X. If it ran OS X it would have to be powerful enough to run all OS X
software... like Photoshop, Aperture, Final Cut, etc. This is a consumer
device designed to appeal to the masses, not
photographers/videographers/designers/artists. It does not need OS X to
do that. People get their apps, and developers can tweak their apps to
work better on the big screen.

Memory: A lot of people have dinged the iPad for not
having enough memory. Yes, the memory is a bit low. I used to have a
Zune 80 which had more memory than any of the iPads. However, I could
not use all that memory at once. People are not going to be putting
their entire music and video collections on this device. They will sync
up some of their music and some of their video content to watch
something relevant. I now have a Zune HD with 32 GB of memory and I have
over 2500 songs on it and still store at least one season of a TV show
on it at a time. That is enough considering I charge it up every night and could
sync it anytime it is charging. People will have to keep tabs on what
they sync (especially the 16 GB version) but this is nothing new for the iPhone crowd. There is enough memory on the 32 &
64 GB versions to load thousands of songs, a few movies for a road trip &
plenty of iBooks for reading. How much memory do you think this needs.
Remember, it is not trying to replace a computer, but be a larger
consumer device than the iPod Touch. I don't think memory will be an
issue, and memory will keep doubling every year anyway.

Target Audience

Let's step back a minute. Remember, Steve Jobs said 75 million people
already know how to use the iPad. In that statement he is declaring the
target audience for this product... iPhone and iPod Touch users looking
for a larger device. In other words he is targeting the home market...
exactly what I said they should do in my earlier writings.

The iPads is not targeting professional artists, web
designers, photographers or any vertical markets. It is targeting
average consumers that like expensive gadgets. This device is
not for people that run Macs at work and are looking for a new
toy to let there creative juices flow. It is aimed squarely at the
teaming millions of people that just want a toy to surf the web, bang
out quickie e-mails and text messages and play with simple apps that do
simple tasks.

Oh... and it makes a pretty darn good e-Reader too, so watch out Kindle.

Success or Failure

The big question people are asking is whether the iPad will succeed
where others have failed. What others? As I see it there are no others
to compare it to. I have heard it compared to the Apple Newton. What?
The Newton was outdone my the Palm PDA devices which morphed into...
smart phones. So the iPhone already does what the Newton was supposed to
do.

All previous tablet computers suffered from two problems: 1) They were
too expensive for the consumer market, or 2) They sucked. It is as simple
as that. Inexpensive tablets in the past used cheap displays to keep
their costs down and the processors were slow as dirt. The iPad has a
snappy processor that is running apps that were designed to run on a
Phone's processor. Speed won't be an issue. Moore's Law has seen to the
screen issue. The OLED screen of the iPad would have cost over $2,000
just a few short years ago. Now the screen comes with a "near" computer behind
it. How cool is that. The only people that would shell out over $2000
for a tablet where the vertical markets. These professionals were
getting them from their employers.

The iPad is truly a consumer market device... and for that it will
succeed in spades.

If you think this device is too expensive at $500, then you have already
forgotten the massive lines for the original iPhone that sold for
$600... with a minimum $20/month fee. And the original iPhone didn't
have any apps, no apps store, and yucky AT&T cellular service. Apps
didn't come out until about a year later. The iPad already has the
apps... from the iPhone. They released the development tools
before the
device is ready so there is time for programmers to build apps
specifically designed for the iPad, and Apple already ported the iWork suite to it.

How can this device fail? It can't. Will it sell 75 million units. No.
But it will sell millions. And the more it sells the more the
competition will try to complete and the more Apple will improve it to
keep the competition down.

And the consumer wins.

Conclusion

Steve Jobs said the iPad was supposed to bridge the gap between the
iPhone and a laptop. It does just that.

Personally, I was hoping it would fit between my desktop and my phone,
allowing me to skip a laptop. The iPad is not quite up to that task, but
it is very close. When I look at all I do with a desktop... and then
take a realistic look at how much of that I want in a tablet... the iPad
meets at least 90% of what I need... and only missed a couple things I
want.

Last month I went over my
current computer setup, and mentioned that in one way or another I
wanted to add a Mac to the mix, have a Win 7 PC and get a larger, higher
resolution monitor. This month I would like to cover the steps I had
originally planned for my hardware eco-system. I expected to do this in
stages, due to hardware costs and such.

As you will recall from last month I have a desktop and a server. The
desktop has two small hard drives and a 1.5 TB external drive. The
server has 250 GB of space available as network storage for the entire
house.

For Phase 1 I would like to add in the Win 7 PC planned in my
November 2009 column and a Mac Mini.
The hardware below does not reflect the high resolution
monitor I would like to upgrade to.

120 GB C: drive
100 GB D: drive
Will be setup to dual boot XP/Vista/Win7/Linux/etc
Will not hold any critical files
Will not be backed up

Mac Mini

160 GB Drive
Will have minimal critical files (backed up daily)

Notice that I moved the 1.5 TB external drive to the server. At this
point I would start to develop some kind of automated backup strategy. I
would start with the Primary PC, then migrate that to all PCs
and laptops in the house. Then I will backup the server's internal hard
drives to the external hard drive.

The 1.5 TB drive will get full fast since it already holds all the video
files. Some of the backup strategy here will require more disc space
which leads to...

Phase 2:

File/Print/Web server

250 GB is shared for critical file backups
Holds all critical files (backup from all
PCs)
Holds all install files
1.5 TB USB external drive
Will hold disc images of all PCs
Will be updated monthly if possible

Primary PC

500 GB C: drive
Holds all music files
Holds all critical files

Guinea Pig PC

120 GB C: drive
100 GB D: drive
Will be setup to dual boot XP/Vista/Win7/Linux/etc
Will not hold any critical files
Will not be backed up

Mac Mini

160 GB Drive
Will have minimal critical files backed up to server

Drobo

Minimum 4 GB of actual storage with as many drives as
necessary
Will connect to the network directly through Drobo Share
Will backup all PCs files (critical files will also be
backed up to server).
Will hold all photo files (backup of primary PC)
Will hold all music files (backup of primary PC)
Will hold all video files

1.5 TB USB external drive

This will be used for long term storage. It will only
be powered up and connected when I am backing up to it or need to
restore something.
Will backup all PCs critical files from the file
server.
Will have disc images of all machines
Will have copy of all install files
Will have backup of all music files

The big hardware change here is the addition of a Drobo. This is a
multi-drive box that allows you to have up to 4 hard drives in its case,
and it will look to the computer like one large disc drive. The Drobo
can be hooked directly to a network with a separate device called a
Drobo Share, but I don't know if I will do that. The Drobo will provide
backup of the all the PCs and the server. In fact, I expect to continue
to backup each PC and laptop to the server's internal or external hard
drive then backup the server to the Drobo. This means there are as many
as three places for all files (the local copy, the server's copy and the
Drobo's copy).

At this point I will want to look into imaging the machines. Imaging is
taking a snapshot of the machine as a complete image, and backing up
that image. If the machine ever loses everything you can use the image
to reload the computer (or a replacement if necessary) with the image
and be exactly where you were when the image was created, complete with
all the applications that were installed when the image was made. These
images will most likely be on an additional external hard drive attached
to the server.

Once I get to this point I may want to think about backing up the Drobo.
I know I am backup crazy. That may be true, but all this backup is
on-site... in my house. If there were a fire or some kind of natural
disaster I could still loose everything. I might want to have a set of
important files off site. I could see using the extra external hard
drive and leaving that at a relatives house, or even keep it at my desk
at work. Just in case. But that sounds like we are getting into Phase 3
of the eco-system. Let's get through Phases 1 & 2 before we get too far
ahead of myself.

If you read last month's issue with regards to the iMac, you can plug
the iMac into Phase 1 & Phase 2 above by replacing both
the Windows 7 PC and the Mac Mini. I am still on the fence with this. I
still like the idea, but I don't know if I like spending $1,700 for an
iMac that cannot be a hard core gaming machine.