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I see intermarket analysis (the idea that other markets can be predictors of the stock market) mostly as a big waste of time. Often, what correlates today won’t correlate a year from now, or the correlation may even reverse. The best way to analyze and forecast stock price trends is to analyze stock prices themselves. That’s the basis of technical analysis (TA). I spend about half my time on TA in my analytical work for The Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Market Updates (http://wallstreetexaminer.com/category/professional-edition-3/todays-markets-professional-edition/).

But there is an exception to the rule that intermarket analysis is useless….and it’s the U.S. Treasury market.

If you know what to look for, Treasuries-in particular, the 4-week T-Bill-can tell you something very important about liquidity and which direction the money is flowing. That, in turn, will ultimately tell you where the stock market is headed.

The Trump/Republican tax proposal sketch is out. 360061522-Republican-Tax-Plan While the hope is that lowering marginal tax rates will stimulate the economy (creating more jobs and tax revenue for Uncle Sam),

This is the new model of nationalization: central banks control the valuation of private-sector assets without actually having to own them lock, stock and barrel.As you no doubt know, central banks don’t actually print money and toss it out of hel…

Listening to CNBC and Bloomberg TV, you might have gotten the impression that Hurricanes Harvery and Irma created such extensive damage (they did) that there would be labor shortages and a big rise in real wages.

Tag Archive for Liquidity

Frederick J. Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009) and “The Coming Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market” (Aucontrarian.com, 2009…

New bank regulation focused on the so-called Leverage Ratio is expected to do major damage to the US repo market. The measure is a blunt tool that does not permit any netting. That means if a client has a repo trade with a bank and an offsetting (rever…

Everything runs on liquidity. Unless you know something I don’t, that dollar bill in your pocket is just as likely to buy a can of Pabst Blue Ribbon today as it was yesterday, and will be tomorrow.

Or you could sell 1,000 lbs. of gold – if you have that lying around – without fear of completely scuttling the global gold market. Your bank has to have cash, liquidity, lying around somewhere in the back if it wants to stay in business.

And in many cases, it’s easy to see or verify this liquidity. It helps everyone feel better about doing anything.

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of New Economic Perspectives. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission. By Michael Hoexter The austerity campaign, a favorite for the last four years of politicians and financial tycoons, remains a seemingly self-contradictory and baffling phenomenon for those who know that it goes against at least 80 years…

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Sober Look. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission. JPMorgan’s prime brokerage division recently published a report on hedge fund liquidity terms (2012 Hedge Fund Terms Analysis). Here are some key highlights: Over 60% of funds have quarterly or longer redemption frequency – which is to be…

As as sign of sharply declining share trading volumes in the US, the broad measure of exchange volume computed by Bloomberg (below) is at a level not seen since 2008.US total exchange volume 180-day moving average (MM shares; source: Bloomberg) Ta…

The Fed maintained the status quo in its decision last week, which means that it will continue to pump $25 billion per month through the trading accounts of the Primary Dealers via its MBS purchase program. That number could increase modestly later this summer as a result of the latest mortgage refi mini boom driven…

Bloomberg says that global corporate profits are being hit by the Euro crisis. Maybe so, but second quarter corporate taxes in the US hit a 4 year record. Europe’s debt crisis is putting pressure on corporate earnings globally with companies from Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) to Danone (BN) cutting forecasts and signaling profits will…

There are a dozen bullet points in today’s Treasury Update. Here are the first 5. Month to date tax collections for the period ended June 21 were running way ahead of last year, while outlays were flat, suggesting the economy may be picking up steam again just when the universal consensus was that it was…

The Fed will decide on Wednesday whether, and by how much, it will increase the rate at which it pumps cash through Primary Dealer trading accounts. What it decides will have an impact on how fast stocks are likely to advance, and how soon that advance will end. A new program of QE that adds…

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