Yoda wrote:He is not 25 even if he is healthy. A pitcher doesn't go from nothing to top 25 just because he has a few good starts. There are exceptions obviously but Duchs is not.

I disagree. If he were a full-time starter with a couple of 200IP seasons behind him, then he would easily be a top-25 SP.

Those are a whole lot of if's and we are not even accounting for his health.

I'm not saying that there aren't 25 pitchers I'd rather have than him... I'm just saying that given his situation, IF he stays healthy, he's a solid bet to end the year with numbers that place him in the top 25 statistically.

That said, he's not a solid bet to stay healthy. So he's not a solid bet to finish top 25 overall.

CBMGreatOne wrote:I'm not saying that there aren't 25 pitchers I'd rather have than him... I'm just saying that given his situation, IF he stays healthy, he's a solid bet to end the year with numbers that place him in the top 25 statistically.

That said, he's not a solid bet to stay healthy. So he's not a solid bet to finish top 25 overall.

Even if he stayed healthy, can you really expect him to be a top 25 pitcher? I'm betting not.

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin

Yoda wrote:Except he has been a full time starter for 10 starts in his entire career and exactly zero 200 IP seasons behind him (see your first post). So how is he top 25 SP if he is healthy again?

I didn't say "If he had 200IP seasons with 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 170K". I said 200IP seasons. I was using the 200IP seasons as an indicator that he would have a history of health. He obviously doesn't. But that doesn't matter. We are arguing how good he is when he's healthy and is a SP and if we assume those for the rest of the year. I do think that his value is being passed over by people like you simply because he doesn't have a history as a SP.