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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM

In a betting move that looks as though it was driven by this week’s ConHome members’ survey which has BoJo on top the ex-mayor and ex-ForeignSec, is now favourite on Betfair to be the next Prime Minister. He replaces Mr. Corbyn who is having many troubles in his own party over the approach of his team to antisemitism.

Good for him. Risky, but would always have been number 2 at Red Bull; it's also a sign that Renault are getting serious about next season.

But given how bad the Renault engine has been in the Red Bull it seems a courageous move.

Mind you I said the same about Lewis Hamilton's move from McLaren to Mercedes.

I'd take the Renault works team over whatever Honda are going to offer next season. They are still way down on power compared to Renault. Renault also have their party mode coming in the mk3 which will be available to Renault, McLaren and RBR from Spa, Honda haven't got a schedule for any kind of party mode. Also, it looks like the Honda request to kill of the MGU-K is dead now, the other three engine manufacturers have invested so much money in it they don't want to kill it off any more. That means Honda are still at least two years down on MGU-K development and we've how much difference it can make now that Ferrari have developed it so well.

I have to agree. Honda will catch up if they stay in the game, but it will take time.

I hope Renault keep Hulkenberg; I expect Ricciardo to beat him, but it's going to be very interesting.

I expect the Ricciardo decision was influenced by how little Red Bull offered him to resign compared to what Verstappen was given; that send a message far stronger than any assurances about 'equal status'...

Your final point is probably what swung it for Danny. He's a great racing driver and it really started to feel like RBR were disrespecting him towards the end. I think in terms of outright pace Max definitely has the edge, but in terms of overtaking and racing, Danny is way, way ahead of Max. Maybe RBR think Max can learn the latter and are betting on raw pace, but I'm not convinced.

I think the other factor is that Danny is said to be a very good development driver, he's very strong at pointing out any flaws and helping the team get the most out of a car through good setup. Conversely Max is not very good at that, their second driver is now very important and I don't think either of the Toro Rosso drivers are good enough to fill that spot. With a new engine for RBR and a lead driver that isn't solid on development it's going to be long season for Renault, IMO.

Yes the 'big Mo is with BoJo'. He is also in a stronger position than Portillo and Davis were as he polls better with the public than they did as well as having more charisma.

Now he leads the Tory membership polls he is in a very strong place. The only risk is he could be Heseltine to May's Thatcher, toppling the Queen but failing to get the crown with someone like Javid doing a Major and taking it instead.

However crucially Major won as he did as well as Hezza v Kinnock in the first head to head polling he was included in after becoming Chancellor while Thatcher trailed Kinnock.

Javid and Hunt and Gove and Mogg all do worse than May v Corbyn in current polls with only Boris doing better

A party whose supporters are unhinged enough to be willing to see a return to violence in Northern Ireland or Scotland independent if that secures Brexit cannot be assumed to be sane enough to reject Boris Johnson.

The MPs stand as gatekeepers. 80 headbangers might be enough to inflict him on us all. Can anyone say with confidence that there aren't 80 headbanging Conservative MPs?

It's not going to be Boris (save in a scenario in which Labour suddenly accumulates a huge poll lead and Tory MPs become desperate, and that would require a sequence of events beginning with Corbyn falling under a bus.)

Based on my limited knowledge and intuition (health warning: I'm normally wrong about these things) I reckon the next leader will be a less prominent Leaver from outside of the cabinet.

Also, I agree with sentiments expressed above the line re: Labour. More MPs could (indeed will, if constituency activists get their way re: the Eurosceptic rebels) flake off due to individual circumstances, but Labour's not going to split.

And this is also on the ball. The retail operation makes surprisingly little taxable profit because Amazon is still expansionary and has tended to reinvest the cash it generates. This is the other thing that Tim Worstall pointed out in 2013 - fine, tax the warehouses, but don't expect to rake in a shedload of tax from it - but as Amazon reaches maturity that's a point that's likely to become less relevant.

Personally I don't like what's going on and I think it really should be changed (particularly before Amazon starts making really serious retail profits), but I'm under no illusions there are going to be easy fixes.

Part of my complaint is the unfairness of it, really, rather than the thought of all this lovely tax we're missing out on. There are arguments for reform of corporation tax but those people proposing it should have a turnover element need to be aware that (a) it's economically worse than taxing on profit [think of the effect on industries with different margins], (b) it doesn't solve the issue if it's turnover of a foreign company that's taxable in their home country, rather than within the UK. There are actually grounds in optimal taxation theory for abolishing corporate income taxes entirely (but rethinking how investors are taxed on dividends/capital gains) and given the impact of globalisation and the complexity of identifying where in a complex chain that profit is actually being made, that radical option may become less unattractive.

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

I don't have the antagonism towards Boris that many do. He has a certain attraction as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics. And frankly, many of the critics sound as absurd as those who pledged they would leave London if he became its mayor. I don't recall reading that it fell into the Thames on his watch.

But....I come back to the question I have posed here before: if he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016, what has changed in the past couple of years? I'd really love to hear his answer to that.

A party whose supporters are unhinged enough to be willing to see a return to violence in Northern Ireland or Scotland independent if that secures Brexit cannot be assumed to be sane enough to reject Boris Johnson.

The MPs stand as gatekeepers. 80 headbangers might be enough to inflict him on us all. Can anyone say with confidence that there aren't 80 headbanging Conservative MPs?

If there is violence in Northern Ireland it will be because of the collapse of Stormont NOT Brexit, the SNP won fewer MPs after Brexit than before Brexit

"Mathematically Corbyn’s LAB’s influence is declining because it is shedding MPs, O’Mara and Woodcock for instance. This reduces the number under Corbyn’s command which has never been sufficient to bring down the government even with the support of all the other parties bar the DUP.

There’s also increasing talk at the moment of splinters within the parliamentary party though I’ll believe that only when it happens."

In terms of being able to achieve positive action, yes. However, on a parliamentary VoNC, I'd expect that O'Mara, Woodcock and any SDP2 would still line up alongside Corbyn in the Aye lobby. Bringing down the Tories is something that would unite them (possibly not O'Mara depending on how selfish he was feeling).

On topic, there are three-and-a-half years in which to replace May. It's not so much a question of not having the bottle; it's a question of timing and personnel. You don't start a contest unless you're reasonably confident that the worst realistic outcome is better than the status quo continuing. For the moment, disrupting the Brexit talks for the sake of risking putting someone in charge who is more interested in grandstanding than delivering is not worthwhile. That equation changes next Spring.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

I simply do not understand what people see in Boris. He was right for Mayor in London, especially against Ken, but that was years ago. He was given a serious and important job to do and has messed it up. His time has gone. He is not serious.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

And this is also on the ball. The retail operation makes surprisingly little taxable profit because Amazon is still expansionary and has tended to reinvest the cash it generates. This is the other thing that Tim Worstall pointed out in 2013 - fine, tax the warehouses, but don't expect to rake in a shedload of tax from it - but as Amazon reaches maturity that's a point that's likely to become less relevant.

Personally I don't like what's going on and I think it really should be changed (particularly before Amazon starts making really serious retail profits), but I'm under no illusions there are going to be easy fixes.

Part of my complaint is the unfairness of it, really, rather than the thought of all this lovely tax we're missing out on. There are arguments for reform of corporation tax but those people proposing it should have a turnover element need to be aware that (a) it's economically worse than taxing on profit [think of the effect on industries with different margins], (b) it doesn't solve the issue if it's turnover of a foreign company that's taxable in their home country, rather than within the UK. There are actually grounds in optimal taxation theory for abolishing corporate income taxes entirely (but rethinking how investors are taxed on dividends/capital gains) and given the impact of globalisation and the complexity of identifying where in a complex chain that profit is actually being made, that radical option may become less unattractive.

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

Indeed. A sharp cut in business rates too.

We need to make it quite clear that we’ll go down the Singapore-on-Thames route if there’s no deal, it’s the one outcome the EU are seriously worried about.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

An opinion poll tells you that. I would suggest that a minimum you would be better phrasing it, the polling suggests that..., unless you live in a world of hard certainty.

I simply do not understand what people see in Boris. He was right for Mayor in London, especially against Ken, but that was years ago. He was given a serious and important job to do and has messed it up. His time has gone. He is not serious.

He doesn't need to be serious for the true Leavers, any more than Donald Trump needed to be serious. He just needs to seem to be on their side. Boris Johnson seems on their side. So he is papabile for the nutjobs.

But one point is omitted: one of the reasons why those who do not want Israel to exist are so keen to describe it as a Nazi or Nazi-like state is because that makes it so much easier to justify its destruction, its removal from the world scene. After all, who wouldn’t want to stop another Nazi state arising? Ditto with the comparisons with apartheid South Africa.

So the use of Nazi comparisons is not just people getting overheated or being anti-semitic or even being enthusiastically pro-Palestinian. It is a necessary part of an agenda which has as its logical end point the extermination of the state of Israel. Such language is not necessary (and arguably deeply unhelpful) if your aim is to get Israel to change its policies for the better. But it is absolutely essential if you want Israel to disappear and be replaced by a Palestinian state from Jordan to the sea, which is the explicit aim of, for instance, Hamas.

Corbyn’s view of Israel and the language he uses is, whether he realises it or not, exterminatory in its aims and consequences. If he really believes what he says, then he should be arguing that Israel has no right to exist. It is certainly what some of his supporters believe and what many of his Palestinian associates believe. The threat to Jewry if Britain is led by such a man is the risk that it becomes the first Western country to call for Israel no longer to exist. And then what? What happens to the Jews living there, born there?

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Yes Boris would be better as chairman maybe Javid or Gove as chief executive, just as Cameron was better as chairman and Osborne as chief executive or Blair as chairman and Brown chief executive etc.

The problem now is both May and Hammond are dull details driven ceos but neither charismatic chairmen. Arguably Corbyn is a chairman and McDonnell CEO too

And this is also on the ball. The retail operation makes surprisingly little taxable profit because Amazon is still expansionary and has tended to reinvest the cash it generates. This is the other thing that Tim Worstall pointed out in 2013 - fine, tax the warehouses, but don't expect to rake in a shedload of tax from it - but as Amazon reaches maturity that's a point that's likely to become less relevant.

Personally I don't like what's going on and I think it really should be changed (particularly before Amazon starts making really serious retail profits), but I'm under no illusions there are going to be easy fixes.

Part of my complaint is the unfairness of it, really, rather than the thought of all this lovely tax we're missing out on. There are arguments for reform of corporation tax but those people proposing it should have a turnover element need to be aware that (a) it's economically worse than taxing on profit [think of the effect on industries with different margins], (b) it doesn't solve the issue if it's turnover of a foreign company that's taxable in their home country, rather than within the UK. There are actually grounds in optimal taxation theory for abolishing corporate income taxes entirely (but rethinking how investors are taxed on dividends/capital gains) and given the impact of globalisation and the complexity of identifying where in a complex chain that profit is actually being made, that radical option may become less unattractive.

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

Indeed. A sharp cut in business rates too.

We need to make it quite clear that we’ll go down the Singapore-on-Thames route if there’s no deal, it’s the one outcome the EU are seriously worried about.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

I simply do not understand what people see in Boris. He was right for Mayor in London, especially against Ken, but that was years ago. He was given a serious and important job to do and has messed it up. His time has gone. He is not serious.

He doesn't need to be serious for the true Leavers, any more than Donald Trump needed to be serious. He just needs to seem to be on their side. Boris Johnson seems on their side. So he is papabile for the nutjobs.

That may, depressingly, be true.

But the only side Boris is on is his own. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him. He’d be just as likely to use the ERG to become leader and then throw them over if he thought it would help him. The nutjobs might want to bear that in mind.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

And this is also on the ball. The retail operation makes surprisingly little taxable profit because Amazon is still expansionary and has tended to reinvest the cash it generates. This is the other thing that Tim Worstall pointed out in 2013 - fine, tax the warehouses, but don't expect to rake in a shedload of tax from it - but as Amazon reaches maturity that's a point that's likely to become less relevant.

Personally I don't like what's going on and I think it really should be changed (particularly before Amazon starts making really serious retail profits), but I'm under no illusions there are going to be easy fixes.

Part of my complaint is the unfairness of it, really, rather than the thought of all this lovely tax we're missing out on. There are arguments for reform of corporation tax but those people proposing it should have a turnover element need to be aware that (a) it's economically worse than taxing on profit [think of the effect on industries with different margins], (b) it doesn't solve the issue if it's turnover of a foreign company that's taxable in their home country, rather than within the UK. There are actually grounds in optimal taxation theory for abolishing corporate income taxes entirely (but rethinking how investors are taxed on dividends/capital gains) and given the impact of globalisation and the complexity of identifying where in a complex chain that profit is actually being made, that radical option may become less unattractive.

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

Looking at MBE's point on turnover tax, I was taught that services usually have a larger profit margin than manufacturing. If this is the case (and I'd like to see supporting evidence), it would naturally follow that such a change would hit manufacturing more than the service sector.

This may be fine, but often people do get anxious about the manufacturing sector declining.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

And when was that taken ?

Once Major was Chancellor, Javid is now Home Secretary and Hunt Foreign Secretary

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

Substantial cuts in business taxation are bound to encourage investment and economic activity, but the extra activity won't be sufficient to replace the lost revenue, much of which will have to be raised elsewhere. The alternative to that is yet more cuts and, with the condition of (amongst other things) the police, armed forces and especially local government services being as they are already, this can only realistically be achieved by abandoning salami slicing and taking an axe to something. Unilateral nuclear disarmament, and taxation and benefit measures directed at pensioners, are obvious places to start looking, but only the Hard Left and the Celtic Nationalists would support the former and no party is yet desperate (or suicidal) enough to confront the all-powerful grey vote.

If business taxes are slashed then individuals of working age are going to have to be told to pay more to compensate. A quick trawl through Google suggests that the abolition of Corporation Tax would deprive the Treasury of about £50bn pa in revenue, which is approximately equivalent to a 10% hike in employee NI or all rates of Income Tax. That would be enough to wipe out a substantial chunk of the country's mortgage borrowers and leave us in a worse position than we were c.2008.

Cutting the Corporation Tax rate less drastically and putting taxes up more modestly for ordinary taxpayers might be a better idea, especially if the rise could be dressed up as a present for the NHS or something, but it would still go down like a cup of cold sick. Remember the golden rule of public spending: every voter wants a pony, and every voter expects somebody else to pay for it.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Some people are good at detail and some run the country. Find Boris a Simon Milton or Edward Lister to do the detail and Boris can do the leadership and presentation and decision making,

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

The former would be a drastic change that needed phasing in even if accompanied by other measures to tax the income of shareholders instead (corporation tax is what, about 8% of all tax receipts these days?) and even if it had significant support from economists would be, electorally, a very hard sell. But it isn't a completely absurd nor impossible idea - an international wave of competitive rate-cutting might preface its eventual abolition, for instance. In terms of the problem of discovering where in the world "profit" is generated in a web of complex global trade patterns, where corporate interests have first-rate legal and accounting advice available to them*, just giving up taxing profit altogether would be the Alexandrian solution to the Gordian knot.

* And also, powerful lobbying services. I get fed up enough with the tax-break-seeking whines of the film and computer game industries in the UK, but the special interest tax lobbying in the USA is on a whole new level. A couple of years ago I read a very interesting article on the sheer scale of the GE tax-lobbying department, and another about bedraggled animation workers getting dragged from state to state as their employers hopped across the country depending on the success of their localised efforts in chasing short-term subsidies/tax-cuts. Soon as each one ran out, or a better offer was wrangled elsewhere, off they'd shoot again, leaving no useful legacy of jobs or skills behind them. Sadly can't remember either of those links but if anyone recalls them and can furnish a link, they were a jolly good read.

I don't have the antagonism towards Boris that many do. He has a certain attraction as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics. And frankly, many of the critics sound as absurd as those who pledged they would leave London if he became its mayor. I don't recall reading that it fell into the Thames on his watch.

But....I come back to the question I have posed here before: if he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016, what has changed in the past couple of years? I'd really love to hear his answer to that.

I don`t think anything has changed really. But it could be that, having served in the Cabinet with them, he now realises that all the rest of the Conservative contenders would be even worse than himself.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Some people are good at detail and some run the country. Find Boris a Simon Milton or Edward Lister to do the detail and Boris can do the leadership and presentation and decision making,

I don't have the antagonism towards Boris that many do. He has a certain attraction as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics. And frankly, many of the critics sound as absurd as those who pledged they would leave London if he became its mayor. I don't recall reading that it fell into the Thames on his watch.

But....I come back to the question I have posed here before: if he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016, what has changed in the past couple of years? I'd really love to hear his answer to that.

It's surely not that 'he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016', rather he realised he wouldn't win and had no stomach for a losing fight. As ever, what's best for Boris was his guiding principle.

It is not possible for speculation about the future to be factually incorrect (pedants will be able to spot exceptions, but that isn't the point), so your point is absurd. These hypothetical "if X were leader..." polls are pretty worthless, anyhow, as X isn't the leader and hasn't had the chance to do anything worthwhile or stupid in the role. They also don't factor in the fallout from whatever series of events led to X actually becoming leader.

Boris carries so much baggage - personal history, political history, and character flaws - that in my judgement he would make Corbyn's task easier, since the "never Corbyn" tendency would be balanced by a lot of "never Boris"s.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Some people are good at detail and some run the country. Find Boris a Simon Milton or Edward Lister to do the detail and Boris can do the leadership and presentation and decision making,

Because his leadership and decision making skills are so exceptional...

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

The one thing you'd think we'd all have learned by now is not to take too much notice of opinion polls.

Relative to Boris every other candidate is going to struggle for name recognition in a survey like this. You could drop in a selection of lower-ranking ministers whom hardly anyone amongst the general public has ever heard of and they would do potentially even worse than any of this lot, but a few good TV performances and a bit of positive coverage and they could soon be doing rather better than 38%. You just don't know.

Whatever side of the EU referendum divide the next leader ultimately comes from, the Tories require one who can provide direction, and convey an impression of competence to the electorate, if they're going to have the best chance of seeing off Corbyn. No amount of entertaining flim-flammery from Boris is going to save his party if he ultimately turns out to be merely a more colourful ditherer than May.

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Boris is more like the motivational speaker you book for the sales conference who goes on too long...

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

And when was that taken ?

Once Major was Chancellor, Javid is now Home Secretary and Hunt Foreign Secretary

John Major was Chancellor and starred weekly in his own television show: Spitting Image. So we are back to these hypothetical (and often voodoo) polls being about name recognition and more bluntly, who's been on the telly most. Boris beats JRM beats the rest.

If business taxes are slashed then individuals of working age are going to have to be told to pay more to compensate.

As I understand it, most people who are opposed to corporation tax would rather shift over to taxing the dividends/other gains of shareholders. You're still ultimately taxing corporate profits, but at the point at which it is distributed rather than generated. The proposed benefit being that you have switched from taxing legal entities, which are legally "slippery" and highly mobile, to human beings, who are rather less so. So it isn't as simple as that £50bn pa "disappearing" if corporation tax were abolished tomorrow, since even without changing the way shareholders pay tax some of that additional untaxed profit is going to be fed back to shareholders and taxed that way, and in fact one would expect both to be changed.

Obviously there are complexities that may require other adjustments too (firms that make profits in the UK but have foreign shareholders, and vice versa; the capacity of human shareholders to avoid taxes too) and I'm neither proposing that the change would be a good one nor that it is especially likely to happen. But it isn't as absurd as it might first sound, nor is it without proponents, nor is it unthinkable under any circumstances (e.g. PT's scenario, or a round of competitive tax cuts that leaves 0% as the next logical place to go).

It's a warm day so I'll join the Boris love-in. I've explained on here why his persona was ideal for London in 2008 - with the GFC in full swing the last thing London needed was a dull pragmatist so we got an upbeat fantasist instead.

Let's be honest - Boris beat Ken Livingstone of all people twice - had someone like the late Dame Tessa Jowell stood against him in 2012 he'd have lost - but let's not underestimate the importance of luck for any politician.

What did he achieve in his time as London Mayor ? The bikes, I suppose - all the Olympic stuff had been started by Ken after the award in 2005 so all Boris had to do was get it finished and bang the drum for London as Olympic host city and that plays to his strengths.

For most ordinary Londoners, he achieved nothing. He was outmanoeuvred by the late Bob Crow who deftly avoided getting into a full-blown confrontation and instead won huge concessions for his members especially over the introduction of a 24-hour tube service as well as Olympic bonuses.

One thing Boris did do was to take more power into his own hands - the Transport and Police Commissioners were done away with and Boris took over direct control of TfL and the Met. He's a centralising authoritarian interested only in his own self-aggrandisement. All he does is say whatever the audience in front of him wants to hear. He maintains popularity despite inconsistency because he is all things to all people.

That might work for the Mayor of London or for a Cabinet post but not for a Prime Minister - in my view, he's as unsuited for the top job as Jeremy Corbyn.

When you think about things, deep down - whatever your political persuasion (Unless it's very far left or right I'd suggest... you realise that May is probably the best person to get us through Brexit.If you were going to do it as a Gov't of national unity, having May and Brown working together probably wouldn't be the worst idea in the world on this.

I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than Boris. Boris would destroy the Tory reputation for competence (ragged as it is under May). The Tories need to shut up and go away, as a wise owl once said. A period in opposition would do them good.