I did read, just prior to the voting deadline earlier this week, that Phantom Thread is getting very strong word of mouth around the Academy. Not only would its win be righteous, but a handy surprise upset is exactly the kind of kick to the gold bond balls that this Academy needs to feel.

Phantom Thread is exactly the type of movie that wins Best Picture. Small time, likely to be forgotten years later, and not as deserving as half the ones nominated. I will happily lead the backlash if it does win.

I guess Phantom Thread cracked the budget ceiling standard for the Independent Spirits, but it was, in fact, an independent production, and, ironically, the one Oscar nominee that most people seemed to have trouble finding in an actual theater this season. The film played in my area for a couple of weeks, about half the time of films like Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour and I, Tonya, but more than Call Me By Your Name (which played the single art house for a week with a single showing per day) and The Florida Project (which played about a week).

Get Out, btw, is still holding a midnight screen, and apparently people actually paid to see Greatest Showman. Of course they did.

Best Picture: Three Billboards (In the age of MeToo a woman led film will probably win; this has a closer path to a screenplay win than Lady Bird and TSoW which will propel it to the big win. If Get Out wins Best Original Screenplay I might bail over to it.)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Willem Dafoe has a tiny chance of an upset, as 538 stated that he was slightly ahead of Mark Rylance at this point in the game. I'm fine with either winning, or better yet a tie.)

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney (even though the airport scene in Lady Bird > all of Janney's scenes combined)

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards (Get Out winning is completely plausible but due to the whole thing about older voters dismissing it for Best Picture, they would hypothetically do the same thing in the screenplay category. It's a matter of Globes/BAFTA vs. WGA and Critics' Choice. However, the WGA situation happened in 2015 when Birdman won despite the WGA snub so I think that'll repeat itself here.)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

Best Animated Film: Coco

Best Documentary Film: Faces, Places (I could see Last Men in Aleppo winning because of the travel ban but I think the MeToo angle and Varda's octogenarian status will boost her chances. Plus, it'd be mildly redundant awarding a film about the White Helmets again.)

Best Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman (The Square could pull an upset due to winning the Palme d'or though)

Best Live Action Short Film: DeKalb Elementary

Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball (Yes, there's the whole rape charge thing but I'm going out on a limb to bet that a lot of the Academy is made of Lakers fans - assuming they haven't bandwagoned to the Warriors. Plus, they might not necessarily blame the animators for Kobe's alleged actions)

Best Documentary Short: Heroin(e) (MeToo factor and the fact that it's probably a bit more uplifting than the others)

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (The only way Deakins loses is either due to bias towards The Shape of Water or PR treatment fro Rachel Morrison)

Best Editing: Dunkirk (it won at the ACE and tied at Critic's Choice, so that combined with the Best Picture nominee rule will help it out. Baby Driver could very well win though).

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread (I could see Shape of Water pulling an upset but seeing as Phantom Thread over performed the Academy will want to give it something.)

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water (BP nominee rule, ADG win, and a sweep everywhere else in this category. Blade Runner has a bit of a chance but Oscars still hate sci-fi)

Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes (Blade Runner could win but VES and Critics' Choice sided with the former. They'll throw this franchise a bone).

Best Makeup: Darkest Hour

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk (Baby Driver could very well win here but given that the CAS sided with Dunkirk, and the BP nominee rule is still probably in play, I think Dunkirk will pull a double sweep like Fury Road and Gravity)

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (Barring a miracle, Jonny Greenwood is getting robbed)

Best Original Song: Remember Me (Basically a coin flip between this and This is Me but I'm not going to bet against the Pixar tearjerker technique and the fact that Disney owns ABC)

One of the last films that I had yet to see, partly due to it only playing briefly in my area. Sure, it might be online, but I'm scared of the lovesexy malware. I could easily see this winning this category.

Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:Best Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman (The Square could pull an upset due to winning the Palme d'or though)

I still haven't seen a damn one of them. I picked Square solely on the strength of Force Majeure, which, I know, is doing it wrong. Woman seems to lead the pack, but those in the Loveless camp also seem to be very passionate.

Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball (Yes, there's the whole rape charge thing but I'm going out on a limb to bet that a lot of the Academy is made of Lakers fans - assuming they haven't bandwagoned to the Warriors. Plus, they might not necessarily blame the animators for Kobe's alleged actions)

Kobe's proclivity for anal lacerations aside, I just honestly cannot believe that he's capable of making an Oscar-winning short cartoon about himself. What is this? Picture Pages?

Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:Blade Runner has a bit of a chance but Oscars still hate sci-fi

Yeah, but isn't Shape of Water a bit scientifically fictitious?

Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:They'll throw this franchise a bone.

Is this supposed to make Woody Harrelson feel better for losing?

Charles Longboat Jr. wrote:the fact that Disney owns ABC

I can be pretty cynical about these things, but I'm not sure if this works that way. But then again, if Disney has the clout to blackball Wonder Woman and murder Zack Snyder's daughter (#wokeDC), then I imagine they could have gotten Beauty and the Beast that tenth BP spot, at least.

Best Picture: Dunkirk
Best Actor: Gary Oldman
Best Actress: Frances McDormand
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (usually one surprise in the Supporting categories)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney
Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro
Best Animated Film: Coco
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Get Out (just love the irony of him winning an Oscar the day after the film that made him quit acting won Worst Picture at the Razzies)
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Film Editing: Baby Driver
Makeup and Hairstyling: Wonder
Original Score: Dunkirk
Original Song: Remember Me, Coco
Production Design: The Shape of Water
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Foreign Film: A Fantastic Woman, Chile
Feature Documentary: Last Men in Aleppo
Short Documentary: Heroin(e)
Animated Short: Lou
Live Action Short: Watu Wote: All of Us

Jinnistan wrote:I guess it's still roughly up in the air, between 2 or 3 films, for Best Picture.

At this point, I'm 100% convinced The Shape of Water has it locked up. If the Academy can't recognize that Desplat's score was complete dogshit, then they're just aching to reward that whole trash pile.

BL wrote:
At this point, I'm 100% convinced The Shape of Water has it locked up. If the Academy can't recognize that Desplat's score was complete dogshit, then they're just aching to reward that whole trash pile.

I'm predicting Three Billboards still.

NOTE:
The above-written is wholly and solely the perspective of DaMU and should not be taken as an effort to rile, malign, or diminish you, dummo.

Wooley wrote:Huh, I haven't seen it, but all I've heard is how great The Shape Of Water is and how it's an amazing return to form for Del Toro, yet the reaction here is "worst BP since..."?
What's so bad about it?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure DaMU's post about it was a joke, since I remember him listing it in his top 5 of the year, as did I (as my #3, and I still want to write a full review of it eventually), for what that's worth. So, it is a somewhat divisive film, yes, but it does have its fans, definitely.