They are among more than 500 candidates in President Emmanuel Macron's centrist movement competing for parliamentary seats, many of them for the first time.

But for this group of career politicians, which includes Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire and scandal-tainted Macron ally Richard Ferrand, the stakes are especially high as Macron has warned them they will be out of a job unless they win. (This is a political decision by Macron as cabinet ministers do not have to be drawn from parliament. But the new president has decided he won't have ministers who have been rejected by voters at the ballot box.)

The ultimatum has a precedent; in 2007, former President Nicolas Sarkozy issued a similar one to his troops. This time, according to polls and feedback from their districts, most of those affected stand fairly good chances of winning their seats in the parliamentary election, whose first round takes place on Sunday.

But accidents happen. Two cabinet members, Ferrand and European Affairs Minister Marielle de Sarnez, are the focus of scandals that muddied an otherwise pristine first month in power for Macron. Ferrand faces calls to step down over accusations of nepotism and Sarnez is under pressure over allegations that she misused funds at the European Parliament. Both deny any wrongdoing.

With polls showing that most of the French want Ferrand and Sarnez gone, their campaigns will show whether such indignation has much effect at the ballot box. Having one or both crash out of cabinet would bring Macron short-term relief from a drumbeat of critical stories. But it would also prove he is not politically bulletproof despite a sky-high approval rating.

Here is a rundown of the ministers whose necks are on the block and their chances of survival.

1. Bruno Le Maire — economy minister

Le Maire is the biggest beast facing reelection. It's a headache he could do without, given a resurgent Greek debt crisis and a jam-packed reform schedule at home. But he has no choice. Le Maire promised to run for reelection in the Eure district east of Paris back when he was still a member of the conservative Les Républicains (LR) party, and before Macron saved him from a long spell in opposition by tapping him to join his multi-party cabinet. Now that Le Maire has been bounced from his former party, he has to explain to puzzled conservatives in a heavily right-wing district why they should still back him, but not his old conservative ideas. "I owe everything to these voters... It's normal that they should have the final word on whether I can stay or not," Le Maire, whose campaign material bears no mention of Macron's movement, told LCP TV.

Making matters trickier, he's up not just against a rival conservative and former adviser, Coumba Dioukhané, but a strong candidate from the far-right National Front party, Fabienne Delacour. In a largely rural area where National Front leader Marine Le Pen won 45 percent of the vote in the presidential election's final round last month, Delacour could be seen as having something of a head start. "What I hear is that people say he turned his back on them," she said of Le Maire this week. "Even people in his old party are saying, 'We need to stop Le Maire.'" All of that would be bad news for Le Maire, were it not for his superior name recognition, and a wave of pro-Macron momentum sweeping the nation. His bet that voters will forgive his late-stage political conversion and back the president's agenda seems to be working.

An Ifop poll last week showed him winning 76 percent of the vote in the election's second round on June 18. Even so, he was campaigning in the Eure this week with the help of another former conservative, Gérald Darmanin.
Job security: 9.5/10

Richard Ferrand | Fred Tanneau/AFP via Getty Images

2. Richard Ferrand — minister for territorial cohesion

Macron's top ally, the man who ran the centrist movement that hoisted him to power, has a warning sign flashing over his head that reads: Damaged Goods. Accused of nepotism and other misdeeds, Ferrand is under a preliminary judicial investigation. If the charges become formal, his boss has already warned him that he will be out of a job, no questions asked.

Most French people don't want to wait for judges to formalize their probe. According to a May 31 poll by Harris Interactive, 70 percent said they wanted Ferrand to be fired without delay. Hardly an auspicious sign as Ferrand seeks reelection in his home district of Finistère in Brittany. A reprieve from the scandal would have been welcome. But none was forthcoming. On Wednesday, police raided the offices of a medical insurance fund in the area that Ferrand used to run. Rivals for his seat such as Christian Troadec, an unaligned left-winger, are hammering Ferrand over the scandal in the campaign's final stretch. Days before a first-round vote Sunday, the MP is showing some signs of unease: he canceled an appearance in a local TV debate scheduled for Thursday.

Yet not all is lost for Ferrand. Au contraire. He is running in one of France's most staunchly pro-Macron regions, where the president took nearly 80 percent of the vote in the presidential election's second round. While micro-polling for the area is not available, Ferrand is widely considered to be the favorite in the race, helped mainly by the fact that he has no strong opponents. The National Front is weak in the area, and his conservative opponent, local mayor Gaëlle Nicolas, is a relative unknown building a national profile.

If Ferrand prevails, it will be a testament to the loyalty of the Macron's backers.
Job security: 7/10

For now, Macron's movement is standing behind Sarnez. In a statement Tuesday, it said there was "no other candidate" besides Sarnez running in her district, slamming the door on any recognition of Malvoisin's candidacy. It wasn't the first time Macron has helped Sarnez, a close ally of Justice Minister and former MODEM party chief François Bayrou. Given that she has already been elected to the European Parliament for three terms, she should have been deemed ineligible for another parliament bid, according to rules spelled out by Macron's own party leadership.

Yet an exception was made for Sarnez. Now she has to prove she was worth the extra effort — by winning. Like Ferrand, Sarnez is helped by the fact that her neighborhood voted heavily for Macron in the presidential election's final round, by more than 90 percent. But her rivals, including Pascal Cherki, the outgoing Socialist Party candidate, are still holding out hope of a last-minute collapse.
Job security: 6/10

Mounir Mahjoubi | Thomas Samson/AFP via Getty Images

4. Mounir Mahjoubi — secretary of state for digital affairs

During the campaign, Mahjoubi was known as Macron's data whiz, the man who told the world about attempts to hack into Macron's communications. Now, he's in charge of digital affairs. But before Mahjoubi can celebrate, he has to win election in a working class northern Paris district — no easy task. He is up against the head of the Socialist Party, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, and a rival from the far-left party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who did remarkably well in the area during the presidential election with 30.7 percent of the first-round vote. So while Mahjoubi has no scandals to his name, he is arguably the most at risk of all ministers seeking election as an MP. "If I lose, if we lose, well then I'll step down from the government," he said this week during a tour of the neighborhood with Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. Cambadélis was quick to troll his rival on Twitter. "Mounir is panicking! The right-wing Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has to come to his rescue," he wrote.

5. Christophe Castaner — government spokesman, secretary of state for relations with parliament

Government spokesman Christophe Castaner faces serious political headwinds as he campaigns for reelection in southern France. In his Alpes-de-Haute-Provence district, Marine Le Pen won 24.5 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who had 22.4 percent, and Macron, who had 20 percent. The National Front is eyeing the district as a possible win, fielding a former conservative party man, Christian Girard, who is well known in the area. Mélenchon's far-left movement is putting up Léo Walter, a 45-year-old teacher who said he wants to "beat the Right, including Mr Castaner." Castaner is campaigning hard and has made no secret of his worries about the election outcome. "It would be a personal failure, a real heartbreaker," he said.
Job security: 5/10

Annick Girardin | Christophe Archambault/AFP via Getty Images

6. Annick Girardin — minister for overseas France

If Girardin's campaign is not getting the same level of attention as other ministers, it's because she is running in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, an island more than 4,000 km from mainland France. Yet she faces the same problem as Castaner and Mahjoubi, namely a tough political field. Mélenchon and Le Pen were both popular in her area in the first round of the presidential election. But Macron ended up winning on the island, and preliminary results from overseas voting suggest he will repeat the performance in the coming two weeks.