There are no quarter-finals in the World Twenty20, which is another reason why this tournament zings along, keeping everyone guessing and enthralled during the group stages. But there are matches that take on the properties of a quarter-final, compelling sudden-death encounters that decide which team will proceed to the semi-final.

One such fixture takes place on Sunday night and the millions of fans of the host nation are thinking of little else. Harsha Bhogle, the TV presenter who must surely have an identical twin for he is only ever absent from our screens during the incessant ad breaks (although he sometimes pops up there as well), and his team of pundits will be permitted no rest.

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Every relevant angle will be dissected and some irrelevant ones too. India play Australia in their final group game in Mohali and the winner will head off to the Mumbai semi-final.

On Sunday, the country will come to a standstill.

The expectation among the fans is that India will win. Here, cricketers are deified more than anywhere in the world and there is now an ingrained optimism that India will prevail even though their passage through the group has been decidedly rocky.

On a turning pitch in Nagpur they were humbled by New Zealand, the team of the tournament so far; they beat Pakistan yet again in an ICC tournament in Kolkota with the ball still turning and then in Bangalore (yes, it was still spinning there) they somehow managed to overcome a Bangladesh side that needed two runs for victory from three balls. That they escaped from such a dire predicament just seemed to confirm that this must be India’s tournament.

Yet they have not been playing well, over-dependent on four players. The two spinning Ravis, Ashwin and Jadeja, have exploited helpful conditions expertly; MS Dhoni and Virat Kohli have scored just enough runs. On dodgy pitches none of the other batsmen have imposed themselves.

Perhaps it is a coincidence that India have always encountered spin-friendly surfaces that produce low-scoring games in this tournament. We will be better informed after the Mohali match.

Traditionally, the pitch there is one of the quicker ones in India, excellent for batting and offering a scintilla of assistance for the quicker bowlers. If the ball starts turning sharply on Sunday night then any conspiracy theories about wicket preparation can gain credence rapidly.

Australia have had their struggles too, also losing to New Zealand in their first game. Theoretically, they should welcome playing India in Mohali on a surface that should suit their team. They have been juggling with their side along the way – only Andrew Tye has failed to make an appearance. They have dropped the West Aussies, Mitchell Marsh and Ashton Agar; David Warner is batting in the middle order without scoring many runs. Aaron Finch is back as an opener alongside Usman Khawaja, which means that Shane Watson is now back down the order.

There is no suggestion of dropping Watson, whose bowling, now honed for T20 cricket, is as helpful to his captain, Steve Smith, as his powerful batting. In any case Sunday’s match will be Watson’s last international outing if Australia lose.

It is 14 years since he made his first appearance for Australia in a one-day international against South Africa when Darren Lehmann, now the coach, was still in the team.

Over the past two decades Watson has sometimes been a formidable cricketer. In his youth, before his body started to rebel, he bowled fast; he could – and still can – hit the ball as hard as any batsman. Yet throughout it all he has been a curiously vulnerable cricketer, lacking the impregnable brashness of so many of his fellow‑countrymen.

In England we all chuckled when we learnt that he was so spooked by the ghost at Lumley Castle in County Durham in 2005 that he was supposed to have deserted his own room to sleep on Brett Lee’s floor. Likewise, there was always mirth when Watson was lbw yet again, often after an unsuccessful review, just when he seemed about to tear England’s Test attack apart.

It seemed like a badge of honour when he was the most notable miscreant among the Australian squad on their calamitous tour of India in 2013, having declined to do his homework, an episode that triggered the end of Mickey Arthur’s period as coach. That was how old-fashioned Aussies were supposed to react to an excess of intervention from the management team.

Cricketers are generally sensitive souls, but Watson betrayed that more than most. Recently, he has flourished more in white-ball cricket and after his international retirement he will continue to bolster the pension by playing T20 around the world.

First there is the opportunity for him to have the last laugh by bowing out as an Australia cricketer with an ICC trophy in his hand. A win in Mohali, followed by two more in Mumbai and Kolkata and he’s there.