Reported Cases in
Ukraine Double in Two DaysRecombinomics
Commentary 14:34
November 4, 2009

478,456
Influenza/ARI

24,003 Hospitalized

60 Ventilators

81 Deaths

The above numbers are from the
latest update
from Ukraine. The number of infected patients has almost
doubled to just under ½ million, compared to the report two
days ago (see map).
Hospitalized patients also have spiked higher, to 24K from 15K.
ICU cases are not listed, but 60 on ventilators are. However,
most (37) of those on ventilators are Chernivisti Oblast, but Lviv,
which has the most fatalities and cases, has none, suggesting the data
is incomplete or there are significant shortages of ventilators.
The number of dead has risen to 81, but media reports describe
additional fatalities, include those in the Kiev Oblast.

The explosion of cases again
raises concerns that the number of fatalities is significantly higher
than the 81 listed. Media reports have described an equal number
of pneumonia fatalities which were not considered flu related.
The basis of these exclusions remains unclear. Similarly,
anecdotal reports suggest the number of fatalities is markedly higher
than the 81 in the table.

The rapid rise in reported
infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in the past few days raise
concerns that the virus is transmitting very efficiently. Spikes
in cases have been reported throughout the northern hemisphere, but the
spike in fatalities and the frequency in hemorrhagic
cases in Ukraine have raised concerns.

Earlier media reports suggest
that an update by WHO
might be issued today and include preliminary analysis of samples sent
to Mill Hill in London.

Daily updates on the rapidly
evolving situation in Ukraine, including sequence analysis, would be
useful.Media
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