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A PAIR of prime ministers, an embattled president, and a brewing constitutional crisis: the scenario that has been unfolding in one of Asia’s oldest democracies over the past three weeks occasions a mixture of ­fascination and alarm.

Sri Lanka’s post-colonial history has been peppered with bouts of instability and bloodletting. It came as a pleasant surprise when Maithripala Sirisena defeated his former boss, Mahinda Rajapaksa, in the 2015 presidential election with the backing of the United National Party (UNP)-led opposition, although the subsequent government of national unity perhaps inevitably proved to be a shaky coalition.

Late last month Sirisena sought to dismiss veteran UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as prime minister, replacing him with none other than Rajapaksa. Wickremesinghe has thus far refused to budge, and his allies as well as constitutional experts have questioned Sirisena’s right to fire him after having ceded most of the presidency’s executive powers early on in his tenure.

China’s economic incursions are causing anxiety in South Asia.

In keeping with democratic norms, the dispute ought to have been resolved in parliament, but Sirisena, aware that Wickreme­singhe still commanded a majority, suspended the legislature, while hectic efforts ensued to win over legislators, reportedly with substantial bribes. When that tactic did not sufficiently pay off, Sirisena decided to dissolve parliament and schedule a snap election for Jan 5, actions struck down yesterday by Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court.

The Rajapaksa government is yet to be widely recognised internationally, although Beijing was quick to do so. It is useful to remember in this context that during Rajapaksa’s decade long tenure as president (2005-15), China rarely turned down a request for investment, provided its conditions were met. It was happy to advance loans for infrastructure as long as the construction project was entrusted to Chinese firms.

As a consequence, Sri Lanka was saddled with debt worth billions of dollars plus at least a couple of white elephants. One of these, the gleaming Mattala Rajapaksa international airport, lost its only daily commercial flight when FlyDubai airline dropped it from its schedule. The same southern district, which just happens to be the Rajapaksa family’s ancestral homeland, also boasts a cricket stadium with a seating capacity greater than the population of its largest town.

Even grander, and more controversial, is Hambantota Port, which was handed over to China last December, alongside 15,000 acres of surrounding land, for 99 years in lieu of loan repayments that Sri Lanka could no longer afford. The agreement stipulates that Chinese naval vessels cannot visit the underused port without explicit permission from the Sri Lankan government. Would that be much more than a formality were Rajapaksa and his brothers — who controlled the key ministries less than a decade ago — to regain control of national affairs?

India is not alone in viewing with anxiety Chinese economic incursions in its neighbourhood and suspecting that long-term strategic aims are woven into Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative. It isn’t just in geopolitical terms, though, that the idea of Mahinda Rajapaksa’s re-ascendancy provides cause for consternation. His domestic record too was devastating. Any credit for crushing the long-running Tamil separatist insurgency must be weighed against the huge cost in civilian lives, but besides the credible allegations of war crimes there were routine violations of human rights elsewhere alongside curbs on the freedom of expression.

These, alongside widespread claims of corruption, have gone largely uninvestigated and unpunished since 2015, des­pite official promises to the contrary.

There can be little doubt that, despite everything, Raja­paksa has managed to retain substantial support among the Sinhalese majority, and his party performed exceptionally well in last February’s municipal elections. He was, in fact, among the first of the 21st century’s popular strongmen to throw his weight about, and the phenomenon has gathered steam in recent years. (Sirisena, too, wasn’t exactly immune to its attractions, indicating back in July that he was willing to lift a moratorium on executions that has been in place since 1976, in order to emulate the Philippines’ exceptionally brutal method of combating drug crime.)

For the moment Rajapaksa lacks a democratic mandate. Unfortunately, though, it seems likely he will acquire one soon enough. This week he formally switched from the Sirisena-led Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) — previously associated for around five decades with the Bandaranaike family — to his own Sri Lanka People’s Party alongside 44 SLFP legislators in the suspended/ dissolved parliament.

Regardless of whether the present crisis festers or is rapidly resolved, it points to a period of gloom for the island nation. But you can safely bet at least a few sunny smiles will bloom in Beijing as soon as Rajapaksa is unequivocally back in charge.

On DawnNews

Comments (35) Closed

Raging Phoenix

Nov 14, 2018 07:35am

Pakistan might experience somewhat similar situations as in Sri Lanka now. CPEC must be verified publicly or conflicts will arise. Just because China is India's adversary that does not mean Pakistan should completely bow down to China. Actually China is now warming up with India. China has more interests in India than in Pakistan. If China strikes a deal with India for India's warm waters, CPEC will render useless.

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ankit

Nov 14, 2018 10:45am

Well, learning from other's mistake is probably the best method of learning. But I guess that lesson is long lost for some.

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Zak

Nov 14, 2018 10:47am

China's destiny is great , they are the world's oldest people and the most brilliant and wize , not only will they rule the world they will control the galaxy.

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Worried Indian

Nov 14, 2018 11:15am

Any lessons to be learnt by Pakistan?

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Aimal

Nov 14, 2018 11:42am

This is an article with its clear political analysis, must be read by all Government representatives in all countries involved in Belt and Road initiative. The Chinese chequer is a game that may cause immense pain to the recipients of generous loans from China.

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ABCD

Nov 14, 2018 11:45am

Rajapaksha can not prove his majority and president is pushing the country to an uncertainty. Entire game is played by China and India. This type of situation may not come in Pakistan, where different game will be played by China and institutions. This is international politics.

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Nadar

Nov 14, 2018 11:45am

Rajapaksa is a prolific tyrant who treats the country as his own backyard.His last cabinate was full of family members and other cronies and all they did over 10years rule was to sell countries national resources to China with a cut for themselves in every deal.

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Srinivasan Kailasam

Nov 14, 2018 01:08pm

Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka have been recipient of substantial Military aid from China and hence were beholden to China . The result being acceptance of all terms and conditions imposed for infrastructure projects both useful and some not so useful.

Bangladesh was smarter. They accepted infrastructure assistance from both China and India but ensured that they were favorable to Bangladesh.

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Pulak

Nov 14, 2018 01:14pm

Brilliant summarization of the situation in sri Lanka. Similar scene is unfolding in maldives & nepal. The single reason being Chinese meddling.

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Jitendraa singh

Nov 14, 2018 01:29pm

Anybody who takes loan,much more than he can pay...looses the freedom of choice and peace of mind.

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Abdullah

Nov 14, 2018 02:39pm

Some comments about CPEC going the SL way. This is unlikely for a few reasons
1. It is mostly Chinese investment, not loans
2. Most work in being carried out by local manpower
3. The projects in Gwadar,KP and Punjab are economically feasible. Studies have proved this.
4. Pakistan's economic woes are not as precarious as being portrayed in the media
5. Projects are not limited to a small backwater town, as happened in SL. They are all over Pakistan, in all the provinces
Hence proven

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RationalBabu

Nov 14, 2018 02:53pm

@Zak, and where would be your place in that galaxy?

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Suraj71

Nov 14, 2018 02:56pm

@Worried Indian, It is too late..

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Jitendraa singh

Nov 14, 2018 03:21pm

Sri Lanka has been waiting to happen in many countries along the BRI ,as warned by many and equally ignored.

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Raman

Nov 14, 2018 05:21pm

Kudos! A very objective and insightful analysis by the author. Everyone knows around the Globe that China is up to something emboldened by military muscle and that nothing is free! My worry is similar fate awaits Pakistan. What are you supposed to do if you cannot pay the loan you borrowed? Unlike other countries in the West China extracts price form these debtor nations and the only way they can payoff is to lease the land as Sri Lanka did. We can imagine what is going to happen to Pakistan? I am thinking Gwadar port being given away to China!

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Ranajyoti

Nov 14, 2018 06:15pm

@Abdullah , the first three assumptions are totally wrong.
1. Cpec is totally a Pakistani investment except few equities in power generation companies. Because all money are borrowed by Chinese companies with Pakistan's guarantee. All money have to repaid by Pakistan govt. (Institutions) in dollar term.
2. Local manpower means a few unskilled labourers.
Already about $28 billion spent in cpec. No substantive official data on job creation.
3. Gawadar was never intended to be a full fledged economic port. Have you ever seen any feasibility report? If it was so why on earth Pakistan would compromise with meagre 9% revenue? Every large port must well fed by big hinterland, has gawadar any. It is almost 5 years now not a single SEZ whereas it takes dozens of SEZ to feed a large port. A good hinterland takes atleast half a century to develop with full resource support.

But for remaining two points I shall love to believe.

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Ali Kazmi

Nov 14, 2018 07:44pm

@Raging Phoenix,

If your wishes were horses.

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Ali Kazmi

Nov 14, 2018 07:50pm

The dawn of the Asian-Century is here and the West doesn't like it. They are promoting another country as Asia's economic powerhouse and leader against China to stave off rise of Asia.

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M. Emad

Nov 14, 2018 08:42pm

PM Sheikh Hasina very careful and balance about the Chinese investment in Bangladesh.

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Observer

Nov 14, 2018 09:58pm

China is overplaying its hand. It is clear it carefully picks some governments and coax them into accepting loans/investments intially projected as extraordinariy development acitivites but later on as the veil of chinese style secrecy starts becoming transparent due to democratic forces in those countries a constitutional crisis erupts. Maldives was first and Sri Lanka is next. While there is nothing wrong in loans for developing countries but they should be very careful about the source and associated conditions. A Godless communist regime can never be trusted. I would rather admire governments who take loans from multilateral forums like World Bank, Asian Development Bank, IMF etc.

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Swiss Neutral

Nov 14, 2018 11:34pm

Once CPEC completes we will find out whether the friendship between Pakistan and China is sweeter than honey, deeper than oceans and taller than himalayas.

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NPS

Nov 15, 2018 12:02am

@Zak, as Always, wishfull thinking. i believe you yourself belonngs to different galaxy, may be you are an alien.

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NPS

Nov 15, 2018 12:43am

BRI and CPEC are destined to fail, because Chinese system functions like beehive. No place for individuals, whole power belongs to the communist party. Contrary to China, in South Asian countries individual influence leads to power. Therefore China cant force its will upon other countries and their people. Since we all love our freedom.

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BK

Nov 15, 2018 06:16am

@Zak, your country may be new but your civilization is as old as Chinese or perhaps older than Chinese. Yet why this subsurvient attitude?

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sajed syed

Nov 15, 2018 10:42am

@Abdullah , , REALLY?

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Zak

Nov 15, 2018 04:43pm

@NPS, I am great entrepreneur, I came to the US with no education, no money, no papers but I am a business owner now!!

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fairplay

Nov 15, 2018 05:04pm

@Aimal, the loans are not generous, they are on commercial banking terms. the World Bank and IMF have long been tools of America. Surely, its counter, the ADB, will have Chinese influence too.

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fairplay

Nov 15, 2018 05:05pm

@Worried Indian, yes check terms for defaults on all agreements.

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fairplay

Nov 15, 2018 05:11pm

@Ali Kazmi, spot on.

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fairplay

Nov 15, 2018 05:16pm

@Swiss Neutral, CPEC is an ongoing initiative, with no end.

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Anon

Nov 15, 2018 09:20pm

@Srinivasan Kailasam, Now they are smart too! Just recently, they rejected Chinese offer and decided to build largest bridge themselves!

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NPS

Nov 15, 2018 10:14pm

@Zak, Gratulation! I hope, many in your country follow your example. But my humble advice to you: Be pragmatic and realistic. In long run, only common sense will prevail! Thanks, wish you all the best!

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Chinaman

Nov 16, 2018 12:08am

@Zak, But your education level remained the same.

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fairplay

Nov 16, 2018 06:56am

@Nadar, his choices were china or india, he chose the former, india lost.