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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A
594 DM RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CI/CS
CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
AFTERNOON CU. WITH RIDGING OVER OUR AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVELS...THE WX REMAINS TRANQUIL...AT LEAST FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND
WEAKEN...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE AND ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE
CI/CS HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY RIGHT AT OR A BIT BELOW
90 FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER TIME AS WE COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
SUNDAY VS SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(PREVIOUS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN TOWARD DEVELOPING A MEANTROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. POPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD AS THE SHORT
WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL...THEN TREND BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EASTERLY WINDSURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE GENERAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEW ORLEANS – For a spill now nearly half the size of Exxon Valdez, the oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster is pretty hard to pin down.

Satellite images show most of an estimated 4.6 million gallons of oil has pooled in a floating, shape-shifting blob off the Louisiana coast. Some has reached shore as a thin sheen, and gooey bits have washed up as far away as Alabama. But the spill is 23 days old since the Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20 and killed 11 workers, and the thickest stuff hasn’t shown up on the coast.

So, where’s the oil? Where’s it going to end up?

Government scientists and others tracking the spill say much of the oil is lurking just below the surface. But there seems to be no consensus on whether it will arrive in black waves, mostly dissipate into the massive Gulf or gradually settle to the ocean floor, where it could seep into the ecosystem for years.

When it comes to deepwater spills, even top experts rely on some guesswork.

One of their tools, a program the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses to predict how oil spills on the surface of water may behave, suggests that more than a third of the oil may already be out of the water.

MODIS/Aqua satellite image taken May 11, 2010. Main body of slick is apparent, as is a small patch of slick to the west, but clouds obscure much of the image. Observable slick and sheen covers 3,908 square miles

The size and shape of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico changes by the day, depending on weather conditions as well as conditions in the Gulf itself.

This graphic shows the forecast for Friday, May 14, and Saturday, May 15. The shapes of the oil slick are created from information by pilots during flyovers, as well as trajectories created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday.

As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the Deepwater Horizon spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations.

Situation: Thursday 13 May

Today, David Kennedy, acting Assistant Administrator for NOAA’s National Ocean Service joined EPA at a community listening session in Houma, Louisiana while Dr. Larry Robinson, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere at NOAA received operational updates on Shoreline Clean-up and Assessment Team activities on Dauphin Island, Alabama, at the incident command center in Mobile. Also today, Mary Glackin, Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere at NOAA participated in a federal agency community information session in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Mary Glackin also conducted an overflight of the oil spill.

All ports in the area are open. Winds are expected to continue into the weekend with scattered thunderstorms, and isolated rain Monday and Tuesday. A cold front is expected in about a week.

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science and NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center are conducting bottlenose dolphin studies in Mississippi and Louisiana. The samples will be used to evaluate baseline levels of exposure to oil and other environmental contaminants. The team will be working near Grand Isle, Louisiana, and in Mississippi Sound. Fish and shrimp are being monitored in the closed areas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEEK
COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOG/LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT..AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG.
GUIDANCE SHOWING 12Z SAT DEW POINT DEPRESSION OF ONLY 1 OR 2 DEGREES
MANY SITES. HIGH FOG AND OR LOW PROBABILITIES ALSO REFLECTED IN
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE. LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL SHOWS AOA 50 PCTCHANCE
OF FOG ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. WILL INCLUDE FOG IN GRIDS.
SATURDAY...LOOK FOR FOG TO AGAIN START THE DAY. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH PASSING FRONT IS THIN AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
TAE GFS MODEL SOUNDING WITH 1.32 PWAT 18Z SAT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE
ONLY TO H8-H9. THIS ALSO REFLECTED IN QPF GUIDANCE..I.E. HPC QPF
ONLY ABOUT 0.1-0.2 OF AN INCH TOTAL. SO ONLY EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
TO AT BEST LOW SCATTERED POPS. SEVERE WX GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ACROSS
SRN TAIL OF FRONT...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE...LARGE
SCALE LIFT OR DEEP LYR SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...
WITH PROXIMITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...H5 TEMPS AROUND -11C AND WARM
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP (IRREGARDLESS ONLY
SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE) COULD PULSE UP AND MAY BE BRIEFLY STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL BEST BET BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN AFTN OVER GA/BIG BEND AIDED BY DIURNAL
HEATING. THIS REFLECTED IN LATEST LOCAL CONFIDENCE TOOL WHICH NOW
SHOW 6% CHANCE OF SEVERE WX ACROSS MOST OF CWA 18Z SAT-00Z SUN.
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH FROPA DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
FROM NW-SE. EXPECT LOWS LOWS 50S SE ALA TO AROUND 60 SE BIG BEND.
SUNDAY...HIGHS 80 SE ALA TO 85 SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOWS IN MID 50S.
MONDAY...HIGHS IN MID 80S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NOSING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
INLAND. POTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF PLACING
US BENEATH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS
SUCH...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SILENT 10 RANGE OR BELOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR POSSIBLE
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. WHILE SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS EACH AFTERNOON. THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW US TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR A FEW
DAYS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST HOWEVER...AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 60S. WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...MARINE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE NIGHTLY EASTERLY SURGES WITH INCREASED
WINDS AND SEAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...EXPECT A SUMMER PATTERN TO MOVE IN BY TUESDAY WITH
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE AND HIGHS REACHING THE 90S BY MID WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A Boom is a floating barrier made up of tubular links to contain, deflect or hold back oil floating on the water’s surface. Such barriers, depending on the challenge, can be deployed wherever needed—far offshore, near the shore or anywhere in between.

By containing, a boom corrals oil until it can be removed without substantial damage to the environment. In some cases, it may be advantageous to pull the encircled oil to a different location.

By deflecting, a boom redirects the path of floating oil toward a more desirable area for recovery or disposal. (Disposal can be accomplished by transporting the oil to shore, by controlled burns or by using dispersant to break up and sink the oil.)

By holding back, a boom intercepts the movement of floating oil to keep it away from environmentally sensitive areas such as coastal wetlands and beaches.

The boom system can work because most types of oil float on water, thanks to oil’s lower specific gravity and tendency to stick together. A curtain is attached to the barrier’s underside to prevent the oil from sliding underneath and spreading further. Of course, rough waters can be an obstacle by washing oil over the top of the boom.

Hundreds of thousands of feet of boom are currently being used offshore in the Gulf.

Onshore activity is focused on six locations in the potentially affected states: Port Sulphur and Venice, La.; Pascagoula and Biloxi, Miss.; Mobile, Ala., and Pensacola, Fla. These staging posts are stocked with people and material, including boom, to protect the shoreline in each area. Each of the states has oil spill response plans in place with trained community groups and volunteers available to aid the response.

Products called dispersants are a common product used to clean and control oil spills in the ocean. Hundreds of thousands of gallons of fluid dispersant are being deployed to break down the oil in the Gulf of Mexico slick. But what are in dispersants and how do they work?

One proven way to efficiently remove oil spilled onto the water’s surface is to isolate it in very small droplets which allow degradation of the hydrocarbons. Oil floats in a separate layer on the sea surface in an oil slick. Dispersants enable the oil slick to break into very finely dispersed oil droplets.

Dispersants are special fluids that use the energy of the waves to agitate the oil-water mix and allow the oil to be dispersed. They are sprayed onto the ocean surface from aircraft that fly over oil spills and dispense the product from cargo holds.

During flight, the planes can cover large swaths of area with the dispersant. Called sorties, these flights empty their load of dispersant and return to the staging area onshore to refill the cargo holds and fly out to release again.

Weather conditions have a major impact on how many sorties can be made and how effectively the dispersant spray is targeted.

Now, think about the shape of a snake. The head of the snake loves water, its tail loves oil. Dispersant is made up of these snake-like molecules designed specifically to isolate the oil droplet from the surrounding water.

As these molecules begin to cover an oil spill, the head of the molecule, or head of the snake, immediately begins to face into water – that part of the molecule is only attracted to water. Its tail is designed to only seek out the oil.

In this way, a droplet of oil is wrapped in the dispersant with the head facing out to the water it seeks and the tail faces into the oil it has captured. The oil slick is broken up in to a sea of fine droplets. It is now in a state where it becomes a feast for the naturally-occurring microbes that inhabit the ocean.

Waves help the dispersant once it has been released onto the oil spill. Wind is the cause of waves- higher wind speeds create higher waves as it pushes on the water. Waves help the dispersant by agitating the oil with the snake-like molecules, allowing oil droplets to be formed.

Winds, however, do generate surface ocean currents- the point where the wind interfaces with the water surface. The wind-generated surface current is what moves the surface of the water along with anything on top of it. As a result, wind at the water surface moves the dispersant before, during and after it lands on the oil spill. If wind speeds are very high, the planes can’t dispense the dispersant with accuracy.

Warmer water is also useful to the dispersant. In the spring and summer months of April through August, the Gulf of Mexico approaches 80 degrees Fahrenheit (20 Celsius) – which is relatively warm water compared to, say, the North Sea or Alaska’s offshore area.

A “relief well” is one option that may be used to regain control of a leaking well such as the one in the Gulf of Mexico. This potential remedy is among several promising tactics being applied in this difficult case, and it is the best long-term solution for regaining control of a well.

A relief well is drilled to intersect the original well beneath the sea floor so that a heavy, specialized liquid (and perhaps water and cement) can be pumped into the well stopping the flow of hydrocarbons to the damaged well . Hydrostatic pressure of the denser, injected liquid can “outweigh” and subdue the wayward well.

Stemming the flow in the original well is accomplished by blocking the oil’s escape within the reservoir or inside the wellbore extending upward. This is the principle behind the action now underway in the Gulf. The objective is to intersect the wellbore at about 18,000 feet below the surface — through 5,000 feet of water and 13,000 feet of rock.

This well — along with a second, backup scheduled to be started by mid-May — is expected to take as much as three months to drill and complete. In the meantime, BP is pursuing temporary solutions including a subsea containment system that would capture leaking oil and send it to a tanker ship.

Drilling a relief well presents many technical challenges. Engineers must ensure that the flowing well is intersected at just the right point beneath the seabed and that fluid pumping operations are precisely correct.

The geology around this particular well is thoroughly mapped. Knowing this highly detailed information about the nature of the reservoir will help the relief well team penetrate the target.

BP has assembled a world-class team of experts from within the company and key specialists in the industry to ensure that relief well operations are conducted as safely and efficiently as possible.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2010
.DISCUSSION...THE STUBBORN AND VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ALLOWED
THE MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND FOR QUITE
SOME TIME TODAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA)...SO
THE MORNING UPDATE WHICH LOWERED TODAY`S MAXTEMPS A BIT WORKED OUT
VERY WELL. ONCE THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THE EAST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FL BIG BEND...AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EVEN
PUSHED THROUGH TALLAHASSEE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM EDT...RAISING THE
DEWPOINT AT TLH BACK UP TO 72. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT...THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAISES PLENTY OF
CONCERN FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM
PFN...TO TLH...THEN TO ABY. BOTH OUR LOCAL 4 KM WRF RUN AND LATEST
CONFIDENCE GRIDS SHOW THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND THE EASTERN
BIG BEND...BUT THE WRF IS MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER OUR EASTERN GA
ZONES. IT ALSO WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FOG VS. A STRATUS DECK... BUT
800 TO 1000FT CIGS ARE ALREADY FORMING AT AAF AND PFN..SO WE MAY
VERY WELL SEE THE LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...PROPAGATE
INLAND...THEN LOWER TO POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG...WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF TOMORROW. FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND ADD AREAS OF FOG IN THE GULF...AND THE MID SHIFT MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. OTHERWISE CURRENTFCST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW FOG/STRATUS AFFECTING VLD BY 04Z...ABY AND TLH
BY 07Z AND CONTINUING TO SPREAD WEST IMPACTING DHN/PFN BY 09Z WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS AT TLH AND VLD AND GENERALLY DOWN TO MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SHOULD SEE A QUICKER END TO ANY RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 16Z. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UNDER
10 KTS.

Former Vice President Al Gore and his wife, Tipper, have added a Montecito-area property to their already vast real estate holdings, reports the Montecito Journal. The couple spent $8,875,000 on on an Italian-style villa with 1.5 acres, a swimming pool, spa and fountains, six fireplaces, five bedrooms, nine bathrooms and an ocean view. (Wonder what the carbon footprint of this will be?)