How Xi Jinping Can Avoid Becoming a Dictator

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President Xi Jinping of China. No hints of a possible successor have emerged, suggesting that he might seek to extend his tenure.CreditPool photo by Ed Jones

By Ho Pin

Dec. 12, 2016

China needs a strong leader like President Xi Jinping. Only an assertive head of state could reset the ineffective bureaucracy and put the country on a path toward meaningful reform. But like many strongmen, Mr. Xi appears to be reaching too far.

Since the 1980s, the Communist Party has followed an unwritten rule to ensure an orderly leadership transition and prevent a Mao-style autocracy. The head of the party serves a 10-year term and, halfway into his tenure, he nominates a successor with the help of party elders. In Mr. Xi’s case, he would need to name an heir at the party convention next year.

In previous cycles, by this time in a party leader’s tenure, names of potential successors would have already emerged. But there has been no public discussion or leaked names. While it’s possible that Mr. Xi is taking more time to pick an heir, there are indications that he intends to break with custom and hold on to his role as head of the party beyond the 10-year term. (“President” is a ceremonial title; the Communist Party general secretary wields the real power.)

In recent months, Mr. Xi has promoted many allies in key government and party positions to fill slots vacated by retired or purged rivals. He has been overhauling the military, making it more difficult for generals to disobey or to stage a coup. Neither Mao Zedong nor Deng Xiaoping was able to achieve such control.

What makes Mr. Xi believe he could pull off this power grab?

First, the Communist Party charter does not impose term limits for its top leader. The 10-year limit is based on an unwritten custom.

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Souvenir plates in a Beijing shop window with pictures of Xi Jinping as well as Mao and other former leaders.CreditKim Kyung Hoon/Reuters

And Mr. Xi enjoys strong public support. Since he took power in 2012, he has transformed the political landscape by carrying out a popular campaign against graft, the toughest since the founding of Communist China in 1949, in which nearly 190 senior officials and thousands of corrupt local functionaries have been punished.

Mr. Xi has also been reshaping regional and international affairs in the country’s favor. His tough stance on territorial disputes in the South China Sea has gained him wide political support at home.

Mr. Xi has no formidable rivals. He has used the anticorruption drive to purge disloyal party and military leaders, and to weaken his fellow Politburo Standing Committee members. Party elders are too old or too weak to cause him trouble.

But based on my hundreds of interviews with the Chinese business and political elite, Mr. Xi is not invincible. An attempt to hold on to power by breaking with party tradition on leadership transition would be politically risky and potentially self-destructive. A power grab could set off a strong revolt within the party.

Mr. Xi lacks the authority and credentials of a founding father of Communist China. While the Chinese public appears to welcome a strong leader, it may not tolerate a prolonged one-man rule reminiscent of Mao, who ruled from 1949 until his death in 1976.

And the public is not as easily manipulated as it used to be. The government is finding it harder to control the content of the internet. Protests against Mr. Xi and his government spread through social media within minutes.

Mr. Xi’s credibility with the people is built on how well he delivers economic growth. So far, he is failing. The pace of China’s economic growth continues to slide, and people appear to be losing confidence in his ability to manage the economy.

But if Mr. Xi follows in the steps of his predecessors and relinquishes power at the end of his term, many of his draconian and controversial policies, including the anticorruption campaign, could face new scrutiny from the party elite. And in a country where Mr. Xi has made the law serve the interest of the party at the expense of impartial justice, his own life and the well-being of his family and allies would be endangered if he steps down.

Mr. Xi’s best option for extending power is to overhaul the Communist Party’s system of governance. Over the past year, think tanks and constitutional scholars are said to have conducted secret studies on how to legitimately prolong Mr. Xi’s rule. Some scholars, including Cao Siyuan, have suggested adopting an electoral presidential system tailored for China.

It may seem far-fetched, but such a system would grant Mr. Xi the legitimacy and public support he craves to stay in power. Without the legitimacy of an election, even a flawed one by Western standards, he would have to step down in 2022 or flagrantly ignore the party rules, and turn himself into a dictator who lives in constant fear of being toppled.

In transitioning to an electoral system, Mr. Xi could change China’s Constitution by the end of his term in 2022 to strengthen the power of the president. Once the president is given control of the government and the military, Mr. Xi could abolish the Politburo Standing Committee, shed his title as general secretary of the party, and run for a newly empowered presidency.

The party’s central committee could nominate candidates, and legislators could be given the power to choose the president in a competitive race. (In the current system, legislators select the president but it’s a rubber stamp.) Ideally these changes would pave the way toward direct elections for members of the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislature. Given his popularity and leverage within the party, Mr. Xi could gain himself more time as China’s leader.

Such a system might resemble Russia’s flawed presidential system — which may make it appealing to Mr. Xi, who is said to admire President Vladimir V. Putin’s grip on power. But any step in the direction of democracy is welcome.

Ho Pin is the founder of Mirror Media Group, a Chinese-language publishing company. This essay was translated by The New York Times from the Chinese.