Abstract

Stephen Miller (1994) "What Would the
Unemployment Rate Have Been Had the Redesigned Current Population
Survey Been in Place from September 1992 to December 1993
?," CPS Bridge Team Technical Report 1.

The official monthly labor force estimates from January
1994 onwards will be based on data from a comprehensively
redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS). The redesign
incorporates changes in the basic questionnaire and
collection methodology. In addition, these estimates will be
constructed using 1990-Census-based population controls
rather than 1980-Census-based population controls.

To better understand the effect of the CPS redesign on
published estimates, a Parallel Survey, intended to provide
annual average labor force estimates, was conducted from July
1992 to December 1993 using a separate monthly sample of
households approximately one-fifth the size of the regular
CPS sample. Because of the small sample size, monthly
estimates from the Parallel Survey are highly variable.

To help analysts interpret the 1994 monthly CPS estimates,
the CPS Bridge team has modeled the Parallel Survey estimates
from September 1992 through December 1993 for the purposes of
producing more accurate estimates of what the CPS might have
looked like during that period had the redesigned CPS been in
place. The modeling has used only data from the Parallel
Survey and the CPS and yields monthly estimates with
approximately one-half the sampling variability of the
monthly Parallel Survey estimates, but still about twice the
variance of the regular CPS estimates. While the model
estimates are less variable than the monthly estimates from
the Parallel Survey, it should be noted that, because not all
design differences could be taken into account, the model
estimates may not provide a completely accurate picture of
what the estimates from the redesigned CPS would have looked
like during that period. The model estimates were seasonally
adjusted with factors computed under the old CPS, so not all
seasonality may be accounted for.