I am a Burmese exile taking a near-permanent refuge in New York and Sydney. Here are my essays about Burma and anything else I feel like writing about. And posting the articles I like from selected sites. Bridging Burma to the world this Blog is more of a Politically-Oriented Literary Blog than a Plain News Blog or a Sophisticated Thoughts Blog.

Friday, October 14, 2016

King Bhumibol Is Dead, Long Live King Vajiralongkorn

The King's Death Points To Thailand's
Paradox: Two women cry as they pray for Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej
outside Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok on Thursday. The king's death was announced
shortly afterward. The world's longest reigning monarch, the king was on the
throne for 70 years.

Here's one image of Thailand: A magnet for Western tourists. One of
Asia's more dynamic economies. The land of smiles. And until Thursday, home of
a beloved monarch who united Thais throughout his 70-year reign.

And here's another view: A coup-plagued nation where the military ousted
an elected government two years ago and suppresses dissent. A country accused
of human rights abuses. A land with an authoritarian undercurrent where anyone
can be jailed for a negative comment about the royal family.

So which one is the real Thailand? Answer: they both are, and often on
the same day.

The death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej at
age 88, after years of failing health, illustrated this Thai paradox and raises
fundamental questions about where the Southeast Asian nation is headed now that
he's gone.

The nation grieved over the loss of the
king, who assumed the throne in 1946, when Thailand was a sleepy backwater. He
presided over its dramatic development into a modern, sophisticated,
outward-looking state. Shortly before his death was announced, hundreds of
Thais gathered outside Bangkok's Siriraj Hospital. They prayed, burned incense
and clutched photos of him. "I really love my king because he's done so
many things for Thailand," said Anpan, a 32-year-old woman who lives in
Bangkok. "He's worked tirelessly for our country."

Above the fray

As a constitutional monarch, he
remained far above the fray of daily politics, yet was also known as a ruler
who could roll up his sleeves, walk into a rural village and connect with
ordinary Thais. His gold-framed portrait was omnipresent, from skyscrapers in
Bangkok to bamboo huts in the country's most remote corners.

His royal touch does not appear to have
passed to his son and successor, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, 64. The
crown prince is not publicly criticized due to the strict laws protecting the
monarchy. But in private conversations, many whisper that he doesn't live up to
his father, or for that matter, a much-loved sister.

Thailand's Crown Prince Maha
Vajiralongkorn attends an event in Bangkok on May 13, 2015. He is expected to
succeed his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who died Thursday at age 89. But
the crown prince, who is in his mid-60s, has never achieved the popularity of
his father.

Married and divorced three times, the
crown prince has lived for extended periods abroad, mostly near Munich,
Germany. He had a poodle named Foo Foo, which held the rank air chief marshal
until its death last year, according to media reports.

"He has not shown any interest in
the development of Thailand, in the institution itself and how it should be
shaped. There are a lot of bad stories, his misbehavior in past, people not
only dislike him, they fear him and that's a recipe for a real disaster if he's
not kept in check," says Paul Handley, the author of The King Never
Smiles, a 2006 book on the monarchy that's banned in the country.

Military rule

The royal succession also draws renewed
attention to the country's military rule. Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, who was the
army chief, led a 2014 coup. He is now prime minister.

The Economist summed it up nicely: "Esteem
for the monarchy has made it easier for Thailand's meddlesome army to excuse
its frequent coups. It is widely assumed that the succession could tilt the
balance in a deep feud which has roiled Thailand's politics for ten years — a
sporadically violent class war of sorts that has pitted middle-class urbanites
against the rural poor, and which in 2014 brought a particularly oppressive
junta to power. The question on everyone's lips is, in which direction?"

Thailand has had so many coups that
there's no consensus on exactly how many there have been. It's around a dozen,
in addition to many attempted coups since Thailand went from an absolute
monarchy to a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

The economy has expanded for decades
(aside from a wrenching financial crisis in the late 1990s) and while Thailand
has had occasional upheavals, it has never suffered a major war, either at home
or with a neighbor.

But its domestic politics have always
been messy, oscillating between competitive elections and a press that's mostly
free to military control where the generals impose rules as they see fit. The
king generally remained in the background, though he intervened decisively when
it appeared events might be spiraling out of control.

This pattern has played out time and
again. Eventually the generals decide that they can return to the barracks and
let the politicians have another shot at running the country. All the while,
the economy tends to hum along. Foreign companies keep investing, tourists keep
flocking to the beaches.

But Thailand is now facing a transition
it hasn't had to make in seven decades. Paul Handley, the biographer of the
monarchy, says Thailand needs a king who can modernize the throne, put an end
to military coups and use his authority to restore democracy and make it durable.
And that's a tall order.

With the passing of King Bhumibol
Adulyadej, Rama IX, his son and heir apparent, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn,
should have been named King Rama X. He hasn’t. As Andrew MacGregor Marshall
writes, Thailand’s succession struggle isn’t over yet.

Thailand now is a kingdom without a king. Following the death of Bhumibol
Adulyadej last Thursday after 70 years on the throne, it was widely expected
that his wayward and controversial son Vajiralongkorn would be proclaimed King
Rama X the same day.

Instead, Thai dictator Prayuth
Chan-ocha told the nation that the crown prince was not ready to be monarch. As
I explained in a previous note, this has created an unprecedented succession
crisis — for the first time in the history of the Chakri dynasty, Thailand
looks set to be without a king for an extended period of time.

Regent of Thailand General Prem.

Junta leader Prayuth has told the
nation that Vajiralongkorn himself asked for a delay in becoming king because
he wanted time to mourn Bhumibol. This is not a credible explanation. The crown
prince was never close to his father, and Bhumibol had effectively been brain
dead for months. Princess Sirindhorn, who of all the royal children was closest
to Bhumibol, was back at work on Monday performing royal duties. Whatever the
reason for the delay in Vajiralongkorn becoming king, it is not because the
crown prince is too sad to reign.

Information from multiple sources with
links to the palace and the extended royal family suggests that a secret
struggle over royal succession that has simmered beneath the surface of Thai
politics for years is not yet over — and this is why Vajiralongkorn has not yet
been proclaimed king. In particular, the scheming 96-year-old royalist former
general Prem Tinsulanonda is trying to force the crown prince to accept curbs
on his rule.

Prem has been a bitter enemy of the
prince for decades — their mutual enmity dates back to when Prem was prime
minister between 1980 and 1988. Prem’s conservative royalist network, along
with so-called royal liberals in Anand Panyarachun’s circle and the Bangkok
faction of the Democrat Party have been plotting for years to try to prevent
Vajiralongkorn becoming king. The conflict intensified after 2005 due to palace
concerns about Vajiralongkorn’s apparent alliance with populist demagogue
Thaksin Shinawatra.

Prem masterminded a military coup in
2006 that was largely aimed at undermining Vajiralongkorn’s succession
prospects and sabotaging his ties with Thaksin. His influence began to wane as
it became clear that the coup was a debacle that had caused irreparable damage
to the image of the monarchy. In recent years he was regarded as a mostly spent
force, with Prawit Wongsuwan becoming the most powerful royalist military
godfather pulling strings from behind the scenes. But Prem, Anand and other
senior royalists remained implacably hostile to the crown prince, as a leaked
US diplomatic cable from 2010 showed.

Despite his advanced age, Prem has
staged a remarkable comeback in recent months. During August and September he
managed to convince Prayuth to allow the appointment of Chalermchai Sittisart —
a general loyal to Prem — to the crucial strategic position of army chief. As I
wrote in a previous note on royal succession last week:

The logic of putting General
Chalermchai Sittisart in this position was to try to placate Prem and his
allies, as well as military factions resentful of the Eastern Tigers, and
prevent a counter-coup during the royal succession process.

Vajiralongkorn was persuaded to enter
into an uneasy alliance with his old enemy. If Prem still secretly intends to
try to launch a succession surprise, however, the appointment of his ally as
army chief gives him control of a strategically crucial position.

Thai Crown Princess and Crown Prince, the sibling rivals.

Now it seems Prem has indeed launched
his suprise. As Bhumibol’s health dramatically deteriorated last week, Prem and
his sidekick Surayud Chulanont sought to force the crown prince to accept some
kind of compromise. According to multiple sources, the reason that Prayuth cut
short a visit to Chonburi and rushed back to Bangkok last Wednesday was for a
tense meeting with Prem and Vajiralongkorn, who had just returned from Munich
and landed at Suvarnabhumi Airport at 12:30 pm on Thai Airways flight TG923
from Frankfurt.

Prem was still pushing for Crown
Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn to be named the next monarch, but this was
rejected by Vanjiralongkorn and Prayuth. Prem then proposed that the crown
prince’s eldest daughter Princess Bajrakitiyabha be named monarch. Again, this
was rejected. The standoff remains unresolved, and this is why the junta
announced that Vajiralongkorn wants to delay becoming king — negotiations are
continuing. It is telling that Vajiralongkorn has said nothing publicly, with
Prayuth claiming to be speaking on his behalf.

Prem’s position as regent and
significant influence over the army have given him some leverage, but he is
pursuing an exceptionally risky strategy. According to several sources it
appears extremely unlikely that he can prevent Vajiralongkorn becoming king,
and negotiations are now focusing on the possibility of reviving the old position
of uparaja, or deputy monarch. Prem wants Sirindhorn to be uparaja, to act as a
curb on Vajiralongkorn. The crown prince has countered with a suggestion that
his elder sister Ubolratana be deputy monarch. As of now, the negotiations
remain deadlocked and Thailand has no king.

The contested succession may end up
doing even more damage to the monarchy, at a time when many Thais are
questioning whether the palace has any worthwhile role in post-Bhumibol
Thailand.

(Andrew MacGregor Marshall is a journalist,
lecturer at Edinburgh Napier University, and author of A kingdom in crisis.
Follow him on Twitter and Facebook. This article was first published to his
Facebook page on Tuesday, 18 October 2016.

New Mandala Editor’s note: According to a Bangkok
Post report, Prayuth Chan-ocha said on Tuesday that Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
will be named king after 15 days of mourning. We watch this fast-changing story
with growing interest.)