Korea

NK - regarded as its population - will never be safe under its current regime. Neither will its neighbors - China is looking at the possibility of a refugee crisis that would strain even its substantial resources, if that regime falls. It will have to be propped up indefinitely.

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and what can China do to prevent such a catastrophe? One way would be to take control of NK and place it under it's full management.

This would effectively place China on the border with South Korea and in control of any military personnel and military hardware including nuclear.
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Do you think this could be a plausible Chinese Government strategy?

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No. China does not want to be on the border of South Korea. It wants a buffer. And it wants nothing to do with responsibility for the welfare of the Korean people - it does not even want them traveling into China.

I don't think Kim is silly enough to consider a reunified Korea as his personal fiefdom.
so..... he is either lying big time or he is genuine in his quest for re-unification.

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None of this. He simply does not betray the legacy of his grandfather. Even if this actually cannot be reached, it does not mean that one has to give up the aim forever. Looks like you think Western style, for periods no longer than 4 years. Other people think about different timescales. Maybe Kim's grandson can reach a unification of Korea? If not, maybe the grandson of the grandson?

By the way, the official line of SK is not different too. They also want reunification. Of course, also ruled by themselves. They have to find a compromise. But it looks like they are both interested in such a compromise. And this does not require the betrayal of their principles - one can make peace and write something about the aim of reunification into the peace contract, as a moral obligation for both parts or so.

But if as you suggest Kim is lying through his back teeth and all his signings recently were fraudulent then this will become obvious rather quickly I feel.

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This is IMHO a situation where both sides know that as reunification, as denuclearization are not really serious short-term aims - that a peace with two states and nuclear weapons remaining are examples of those provisionary things which last forever.

The situation today is unprecedented in NK history. Kim actually has Nuclear weapons. It is no longer a case of developing nuclear weapons. He also has developed ICBM's. Strategically this is vastly different to what it was under his fathers rule.

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Correct. He has reached everything such a small state is able to reach, and he has no point to aim for more. But, of course, he has zero interest to give this away.

You think Kim will ask for permission? He will not. He has good life insurance against the US. The US can draw periods as much as they like. What Kim has offered Trump is a nice game - acknowledging denuclearization as a long-term aim (ok, officially it can be a short-term aim, and remain such a short-term aim forever).

And, by the way, I'm not sure at all if the guy after Trump will not accept NK as a nuclear power. Why? Because there is no longer the alternative of a one-sided denuclearization - the denuclearization exists now only as denuclearization of the whole of Korea. If the successor wants, for whatever reasons, to preserve US nuclear weapons in SK, he has not much choice but to break this contract himself. So that this will not be Kim's fault. Or to accept that Kim preserves his nuclear weapons too.

The problem is that nothing else makes sense for NK either. As a Chinese vassal (your term for this situation) Kim will not be allowed equivalent status with Chinese leaders, and so the abuse of the population will not be relieved.

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I doubt about a vassal status of NK. Would you vote for UN sanctions against your vassal?

The current NK regime will be safe too. But the population will be also safe from US bombs. Ok, its citizens have yet to live under the regime. But I doubt US bombs will be preferable for them. I think detente will be much better for the NK population.

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exactly .. which is directly related to why I posted the most likely solution in post#8

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Your solution is vastly different because it is a completely different situation.

The US dropped nuclear bombs on Japan in a bid to force their surrender, while at the same time, Russia had declared war on Japan and were about to invade. Due to the rebuilding effort required, MacArthur argued vehemently that Hirohito was required to ensure a smooth transition, so that the Japanese had something to live for.

Hirohito did not commit gross human rights abuses towards the Japanese, he was genuinely loved and adored and respected by the Japanese people... They did not have indoctrination camps and gulags for their own people.

Can you spot the difference between that situation and what is currently happening in North Korea?

an amnesty for Kim and family and a viable future if and when he relinquishes control of NK. during the re-unification process.

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No.

For a few reasons.

1) Kim Jong Un is one of the worst dictators of our time. And I mean that literally. He does not get to walk out of an amnesty without ending up in prison for the rest of his life, the same goes for his family who supported and took part in a regime that has seen millions die and has kept 25 million people living in utter terror and fear.

2) Kim Jong Un would never accept it anyway, since you know, he's a dictator and kind of likes holding onto power (hence why so many people are murdered, because in his murderous mind, he thinks they pose a potential threat to his hold on power).

3) There can be no viable future for North Koreans if 1) does not happen.

You are proposing unicorns and pixie dust, with no basis in reality.

If there is to be everlasting peace in that region, then Kim Jong Un has to stand trial for the crimes he has committed against his own people. He and his family, who comprise of the leadership can never, ever be allowed to see the light of day again. And it can never be a matter of simply opening the border with South Korea and saying have at it. The populace of North Korea have been conditioned through generations of fear and terror to venerate a horrific dictator. These are people who believe in unicorns. Why? Because their Dear Leader told them to. Do you understand now how horrific this situation is?

So can you please stop suggesting that a man who is part of a regime that has effectively imprisoned 25 million people, who has overseen the mass torture, murder, rape and starvation of his people, be given amnesty and protection.

The logic leading to the solution I proposed is really quite straight forward. All you have to do is agree with the 2 key points.

The South Korean people will NEVER accept a dictatorship as a part of re-unification. (Y/N)

Kim J U will NEVER relinquish control of North Korea unless he is guaranteed a secure and viable future. (Y/N)

the rest is simply holding to those two key logically derived points and working from there...

As to the issue of granting amnesty to a monster, MacArthur and the world generally could see the benefit of doing so at the end of ww2.

That similar benefit would apply to North Korea, except more so due to the fact that North Korea has Nuclear WMD's, a population that is currently suffering tremendous hardship and an economy that is in the process of disintegration.

The cost of not granting amnesty doing so would mean:

Perpetuating the existing dilemma with associated and profound human suffering of the NK people.

The inevitable military intervention by the USA and associated risk to many millions of people as collateral damage.

Simply put there is no way forward to peaceful re-unification other than by offering Kim J U and family amnesty. Like it or not.

You consider me as being naive yet I haven't seen any here at sciforums deal with the two points I noted above. Until I do then it is not me being naive but you.

Look Bells, let us imagine for a moment that you are the one to make the decision.
You have to decide whether to grant Kim JU amnesty to alleviate the suffering of NK population, and prevent the countless deaths, torture etc yet to occur or not.
You need to ask yourself:
Are you going to be responsible for the on going torture and hardship of the people under his control or not?
or would you rather sacrifice countless souls so that you can punish a tyrannical despot and serve justice if, and it is a big if, you can?

you are arrogantly presuming the higher ground when you don't have it.

If you deal with the 2 points mentioned in post #27 logically you may have to re-evaluate your current assessment.
btw your post was bordering on being abusive....IMO

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There is always a higher ground when it comes to essentially forgiving a mass murdering dictator by granting him amnesty and immunity from prosecution...

You do see that, yes?

And I am always snide when it comes to people who go out of their way to naively carry water for dictators, QQ.

You have provided nothing that could actually be evaluated for assessment. It hasn't sunk in yet? No one agrees with you. Nothing you have suggested could or would work. Annexing North Korea to China? What? The Chinese would not want it (25 million more people to feed and take care of, people they won't even allow to cross their borders). Nor would the South Koreans, Russia, Japan, Taiwan or any country in the region accept that kind of Chinese expansion in the region (look at the brouhaha over the islands China has built in the South China Sea and declared Chinese territory as a prime example).

Proving a dictator like Kim Jong Un amnesty and protection? For what? If he stands down? This is a man who shot up over 130 people, people in his inner circle because he felt they could conceivably threaten his power, and you think amnesty is going to get him to stand down?

Look Bells, let us imagine for a moment that you are the one to make the decision.
You have to decide whether to grant Kim JU amnesty to alleviate the suffering of NK population, and prevent the countless deaths, torture etc yet to occur or not.
You need to ask yourself:
Are you going to be responsible for the on going torture and hardship of the people under his control or not?
or would you rather sacrifice countless souls so that you can punish a tyrannical despot and serve justice if, and it is a big if, you can?

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Those are the only two choices you can see?

Really?

How about arresting the regime (including Kim Jong Un) for horrific crimes against humanity and facing trial in the ICC?

How about then ensuring the people have adequate food and water and medical supplies, from South Koreans, people they share a language with and family who were separated because of the war... That would provide comfort and something they know and are comfortable with. Then a slow and gradual reintegration for North Koreans, through daily contact with South Koreans, education programs about the world outside of their country, help from the international community. Confiscate and use the billions of dollars the Kim regime has squirreled away around the world (that remains untouched, unbelievably!) to pay for the rehabilitation of his people.

You know, a slow process to reintegrate an entire country into society, in a safe environment..?

Meanwhile inspectors can dismantle their nuclear program bit by bit, attempt to rehabilitate the areas damaged by tests.

Your solution is to continue to benefit and protect a dictator.

Which is reprehensible by any standard of measure.

So stop whining when people call you out on your reprehensible arguments.

How about arresting the regime (including Kim Jong Un) for horrific crimes against humanity and facing trial in the ICC?
How about then ensuring the people have adequate food and water and medical supplies, from South Koreans, people they share a language with and family who were separated because of the war...

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That's, of course, easy, for the five survivors of step 1 there will be enough food and water, moreover, the South Koreans also need much less of it with the heavily reduced population.

Alternatively, think about beam technology to beam Kim from NK directly into a prison cell in Den Haag.

There is always a higher ground when it comes to essentially forgiving a mass murdering dictator by granting him amnesty and immunity from prosecution...

You do see that, yes?

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not forgiving any one, but preventing the ongoing slaughter and torture for many years to come.

And I am always snide when it comes to people who go out of their way to naively carry water for dictators, QQ.

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and do yourself a great disservice when you do...

You have provided nothing that could actually be evaluated for assessment. It hasn't sunk in yet? No one agrees with you. Nothing you have suggested could or would work. Annexing North Korea to China? What? The Chinese would not want it (25 million more people to feed and take care of, people they won't even allow to cross their borders). Nor would the South Koreans, Russia, Japan, Taiwan or any country in the region accept that kind of Chinese expansion in the region (look at the brouhaha over the islands China has built in the South China Sea and declared Chinese territory as a prime example).

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if it comes to push and shove, China will attempt to prevent a flood of starving refugees from entering China and do so in the most expeditious manner. China a world power would have no problem taking control over NK on invitation by Kim and claim a humanitarian motive easily. Kim would be untouchable then and apart from world war no one could do anything to prevent the ongoing suffering of the NK population.

Proving a dictator like Kim Jong Un amnesty and protection? For what? If he stands down?

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but of course.

This is a man who shot up over 130 people, people in his inner circle because he felt they could conceivably threaten his power, and you think amnesty is going to get him to stand down?

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if he wishes to end the dilemma his building of nukes has put him in yes... also the re-unification of Korea would be part of his motive.

Do you have any alternative apart from a devastating invasion with potentially global consequences? As with Amnesty International...no alternatives provided.
Do you think invasion would alleviate the humanitarian crisis currently developing in NK?

How about arresting the regime (including Kim Jong Un) for horrific crimes against humanity and facing trial in the ICC?

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at what cost do you think?

How about then ensuring the people have adequate food and water and medical supplies, from South Koreans, people they share a language with and family who were separated because of the war... That would provide comfort and something they know and are comfortable with. Then a slow and gradual reintegration for North Koreans, through daily contact with South Koreans, education programs about the world outside of their country, help from the international community. Confiscate and use the billions of dollars the Kim regime has squirreled away around the world (that remains untouched, unbelievably!) to pay for the rehabilitation of his people.

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so going to active war with North Korea is your only solution?

at what cost in human tragedy are you thinking of?

You know, a slow process to reintegrate an entire country into society, in a safe environment..?

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already discussed this elsewhere. Think post German reunification and multiply by 4 or 6
The severity of their PTSD may actually be unable to be dealt with in their lifetime due to the severe and extreme nature of their trauma.

Meanwhile inspectors can dismantle their nuclear program bit by bit, attempt to rehabilitate the areas damaged by tests.

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is that before you kill millions or after?
Bells... you really need to... ah .. lift your game before you start pointing fingers and claiming pixies and fairy dust.

Your solution is to continue to benefit and protect a dictator.

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My solution ( it is not just mine btw) provides for a peaceful transition towards a re-unified democratic Korea with the minimum cost to human life and suffering. Not to mention material damage/cost.

Your solution would mean the deaths of millions and may not succeed in the re-unification due to involvement by China and the immense cost of re-building destroyed infrastructure and cities.

recall those 2 points

So stop whining when people call you out on your reprehensible arguments.

Bells,
Simply put there is no way forward to peaceful re-unification other than by offering Kim J U and family amnesty. Like it or not.
Fighting for justice for one man's monstrous acts is simply not worth the suffering and death of millions, including women and children.

if it comes to push and shove, China will attempt to prevent a flood of starving refugees from entering China and do so in the most expeditious manner. China a world power would have no problem taking control over NK on invitation by Kim and claim a humanitarian motive easily. Kim would be untouchable then and apart from world war no one could do anything to prevent the ongoing suffering of the NK population.

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China would not want to take over North Korea, because they would have to deal with 25 million people who would not want China to take over the country. Not to mention the region would not want China to expand into North Korea. Not to mention that Kim Jong Un would not relinquish power to anyone. What part of that don't you understand?

Kim Jong Un is a dictator who does not want to relinquish power. He has murdered his own family members to consolidate his power and to remove anyone he deems a threat to his position. He has murdered people in his close circle of advisers because he thought they had too much power and sway and posed a risk to his leadership. He literally purged military leaders and advisers and had them all killed. Kim Jong Un does not care about the humanitarian plight of his people. He only cares about power.

This naive belief that he would just walk away and let China take over is frankly, irrational and literally pixie dust and unicorns. And I mean that literally. You are approaching this from an absolutely impossible angle with no basis in reality.

if he wishes to end the dilemma his building of nukes has put him in yes... also the re-unification of Korea would be part of his motive.

Do you have any alternative apart from a devastating invasion with potentially global consequences? As with Amnesty International...no alternatives provided.
Do you think invasion would alleviate the humanitarian crisis currently developing in NK?

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Oh my God!

He does not see it as a dilemma!

He sees it as an insurance policy, something he has to have to a) consolidate his power in the region and b) to ensure that any outside threat would face nuclear weapons if they dared try to depose him. Did you not bother to read the statement he released to North Korea in April?

Did you even bother to read what I had written? As in actually read it?

He wants reunification under his leadership. He does not want reunification if he cannot lead the country.

There would be moments when he could be arrested. It would require a change in the mindset of his people and closer inner circle. It would require ceasing every single one of his bank accounts across the globe and imposing stricter sanctions in a bid to have the populace stand up and take further notice. It would require tightening the screws on Kim Jong Un and his cronies, with the knowledge that the moment they set foot outside of North Korea, they would be arrested for the crimes they have committed. It will require attempting to turn his army against him.

At present, North Koreans know nothing about the outside world aside from what they are told by the regime. I think South Korea's agreement to stop their attempts to flood the country with information about the outside world is a terrible idea. For obvious reasons.

is that before you kill millions or after?
Bells... you really need to... ah .. lift your game before you start pointing fingers and claiming pixies and fairy dust.

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And you really, really need to stop inventing things about what other people say.

You have suggested that Kim Jong Un simply roll over to China and give them North Korea and give him amnesty and protection... You have done this with comparisons to Japan and Hirohito's surrender, while blatantly ignoring the fact that Ameria dropped nuclear bombs and they faced an invading Russian force before he surrendered.

Your solution would mean the deaths of millions and may not succeed in the re-unification due to involvement by China and the immense cost of re-building destroyed infrastructure and cities.

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Actually it would not.

My solution has been tried and tested against other murderous dictators and regimes, as a means to remove these dictators from power with minimal loss of life. My solution involves a very slow reintegration into society for North Koreans, where the money stolen by the regime and its leadership is given back to the people to help them rebuild. Where the criminals actually face justice. Your solution is to give China North Korea and protect a murderous dictator.

Simply put there is no way forward to peaceful re-unification other than by offering Kim J U and family amnesty. Like it or not.
Fighting for justice for one man's monstrous acts is simply not worth the suffering and death of millions, including women and children.

Can you not see that?

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And can you not see that Kim Jong Un is not going to accept amnesty if it means he gives up his power?

We know you don't think human rights is important. You argue this of course, while boasting about how well you will sleep at night..

Kim Jong Un does not think human rights is important either. He probably sleeps well at night too.

At the end of the day, your ridiculous proposition of giving China North Korea and Kim Jong Un fading to black with amnesty and protection is never going to work. For reasons every poster who has been unfortunate enough to engage you in this discussion has already pointed out.

I doubt about a vassal status of NK. Would you vote for UN sanctions against your vassal?

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China would. They don't like NK's slap-happy accident-prone nuclear screwing around any more than anyone else does, and UN discipline is cheap.
I was using "vassal" in your sense, explicitly, remember - where Germany is a vassal of the US, etc.

Notice, about the recent "summit" on the foothill: If viewed as a setup by China, to simultaneously rein in Kim a bit and weaken the US by playing Trump, that thing worked like a charm. Singapore paid for it, NK and US stuck their asses out, China collected.

But the population will be also safe from US bombs. Ok, its citizens have yet to live under the regime. But I doubt US bombs will be preferable for them. I think detente will be much better for the NK population.

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They have been safe from US bombs for more than fifty years, and barring internal collapse will continue to be safe unless NK sets off some kind of panic with its nukes or invasion threats. The conventional umbrella of China - or even NK's own military - is solid, the nuclear umbrella of China more than adequate.

They are no longer choosing between US bombs and the horrible current regime. That choice disappeared decades ago - the US is not going to bomb anyone on China's refugee border unless badly cornered.

Meanwhile, the current situation is liable to change without choice. The thing about regimes like NK's is that they don't work. Rigidly planned leftwing authoritarian economies starve and crash, topheavy military establishments disciplined by assassination break up, natural disasters unplanned for undermine, people neglected and abused revolt, and these days we have climate change rolling in. Shit happens, and the setup is not resilient. The regime in NK is probably not going to last, even with China's best efforts to support its buffer. China knows this. And nobody - not China, not Russia, nobody - wants NK to collapse with a lot of nuclear weapons lying around. So a soft, non-nuclear, gentle, moderately paced disintegration is in the interest of everyone within range of the various fallouts.

Korea the hermit kingdom:
" ... Joseon consolidated its effective rule over the territory of current Korea and saw the height of classical Korean culture, trade, science, literature and technology. However, the dynasty was severely weakened during the late 16th and early 17th centuries, when the Japanese invasions of Korea (1592–98) and the first and second Manchu invasions of 1636 nearly overran the Korean Peninsula, leading to an increasingly harsh isolationist policy, for which the country became known as the "hermit kingdom" in Western literature. After the end of invasions from Manchuria, Joseon experienced a nearly 200-year period of peace. ..."

" ... The Joseon period has left a substantial legacy to modern Korea; much of modern Korean culture, etiquette, norms and societal attitudes towards current issues developed during this period. The modern Korean language, its dialects and Korea's majority ethnic group, which refer to themselves as the "Joseon people", derive from the culture and traditions of Joseon ..."

Korea the hermit kingdom:
" ... Joseon consolidated its effective rule over the territory of current Korea and saw the height of classical Korean culture, trade, science, literature and technology. However, the dynasty was severely weakened during the late 16th and early 17th centuries, when the Japanese invasions of Korea (1592–98) and the first and second Manchu invasions of 1636 nearly overran the Korean Peninsula, leading to an increasingly harsh isolationist policy, for which the country became known as the "hermit kingdom" in Western literature. After the end of invasions from Manchuria, Joseon experienced a nearly 200-year period of peace. ..."

" ... The Joseon period has left a substantial legacy to modern Korea; much of modern Korean culture, etiquette, norms and societal attitudes towards current issues developed during this period. The modern Korean language, its dialects and Korea's majority ethnic group, which refer to themselves as the "Joseon people", derive from the culture and traditions of Joseon ..."

They have been safe from US bombs for more than fifty years, and barring internal collapse will continue to be safe unless NK sets off some kind of panic with its nukes or invasion threats. The conventional umbrella of China - or even NK's own military - is solid, the nuclear umbrella of China more than adequate.

They are no longer choosing between US bombs and the horrible current regime. That choice disappeared decades ago - the US is not going to bomb anyone on China's refugee border unless badly cornered.

Meanwhile, the current situation is liable to change without choice. The thing about regimes like NK's is that they don't work. Rigidly planned leftwing authoritarian economies starve and crash, topheavy military establishments disciplined by assassination break up, natural disasters unplanned for undermine, people neglected and abused revolt, and these days we have climate change rolling in. Shit happens, and the setup is not resilient. The regime in NK is probably not going to last, even with China's best efforts to support its buffer. China knows this. And nobody - not China, not Russia, nobody - wants NK to collapse with a lot of nuclear weapons lying around. So a soft, non-nuclear, gentle, moderately paced disintegration is in the interest of everyone within range of the various fallouts.

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Just to extend...
My take:
From a North Korean perspective:

The entire population including the leadership have been under siege by the USA and allies since 1954.

The entire population believes in the need to maintain extreme defense at all times regardless of the sacrifice ( which includes draconian disciplines delivered by way of extreme internal security measures.)

Of course the regime leadership will seek to reinforce the siege mentality as it further secures and reinforces their rule.

The WMD/military programs have always been about pseudo-national defense until very recently when an WMD offensive (as interpreted by the Western world) capacity was developed.

The Korean armistice is not a typical armistice. It only included a conditional ceasefire between military commands. A government to government based armistice was not possible due to the fact that North Korea had(s) no tangible government other than military rule under the Songun doctrine/policy.
From a NK perspective the armistice was seriously and irrevocably first breached when the USA failed to adhere to Paragraph 13d of the armistice agreement by introducing Nuclear weapons to South Korea. 1956. Just 2 years after agreeing not to.