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The streaming video market is on the cusp of overtaking traditional pay TV, reports Bristol-based Rethink Research. After tracking 280 streaming services in 40 countries and forecasting their growth, Rethink sees the global audience for streaming video-on-demand (SVOD) and TV Everywhere services growing to 745 million in those 40 countries in 5 years. Adding in other countries not studied brings the total to 816 million subscribers in over 200 countries.

While the pay TV industry now counts 1 billion customers around the world, that number will decline, Rethink says, something already occurring in the U.S.

By the end of 2022, the world will have 476 million SVOD subscribers and 269 million active users of TV Everywhere content. The U.S. will have the most SVOD customers with 236 million, while Europe will have more TVE users.

Looking at Netflix, Rethink forecasts the SVOD leader will have 184 million global subscribers by the end of 2022. By then, it will have a market value of around $200 billion, and will be one of the largest companies on the U.S. stock market. Surprisingly, Rethink sees Amazon Prime Video counting more subscribers than Netflix in the U.S. by 2020.