Analysts at the Nuffield Trust think-tank claim that funding promises made in manifestos in the run-up to the general election will not be enough to cope with increased demand and sustain quality care over the next five years and beyond.

They costed four scenarios for planning expenditure and found that Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat pledges all fail to ‘reach even the lowest projection of possible future NHS spending patterns’. They warn that health spending as a proportion of gross domestic product is set to fall under each proposal.

Currently, the NHS in England gets £124bn. Under the Conservatives pre-election settlement, that was due to rise to £126bn by 2020, a 0.75% increase each year. Post general election, the parliamentary term will run to 2022/23.

Nuffield Trust analysed four scenarios:

funding keeping pace with economic growth would mean an NHS budget of £137bn by 2022/23 — £13bn more in real terms than spending in 2017

funding keeping pace with NHS inflation and predicted demand for care, and a removal of the cap on staff pay, offset by some increased productivity would give a budget of £141bn

funding equal to average real terms increases for the NHS since it began would result in £150bn — £27bn more than current spending

funding based on Office of Budget Responsibility projections of required spending would amount to £155bn by 2022/23 — an extra £31bn above expenditure this year

However, Conservative plans would only amount to £131.7bn by 2022/23; Liberal Democrat plans, £132.2bn; and Labour plans £135.3bn.

Below, in further information, are links to a selection of analyses and news stories on NHS angles to the general election and political manifestos.