Eight Things I Think About These NCAAs

A lot of people have Kyle Wharton and third-seeded Johns
Hopkins on upset alert with former Blue Jays offensive coordinator
Seth Tierney's Hofstra team coming to town. Gary Lambrecht is not
buying it.

Some thoughts as the NCAA Division I men's lacrosse tournament
prepares to launch:

1. The quality is subject to question.

From top to bottom, this year's bracket is not the strongest
since the NCAA expanded its postseason event to 16 teams in 2003.
Six teams entering this year's fray have at least five losses,
while nine teams have shouldered at least four defeats. Conference
champions/automatic qualifiers Delaware (12-6), Hartford (11-6) and
Siena (13-4) account for some of that, and some may point to
increased parity to explain the dilution. I think the other truth
is that overall quality of the sport simply dipped this year.

2. Notre Dame is the most vulnerable top-four seed.

It's amazing what two bad weeks can do to a team's momentum. No.
4 seed Notre Dame was sailing along as the last of the unbeaten,
before it ran into a buzz saw named Syracuse at the Carrier Dome on
April 30. Then, the Irish got out-played for the first 50 minutes
against a younger, more athletic North Carolina team, before
rallying late and losing in OT. In both defeats, the opposition's
speed, great transition and excellent shooters did in the Irish.
Hmmm, that sounds a lot like fifth-seeded Duke, which should see
Notre Dame in the quarterfinals in a rematch of last year's title
game.

3. Don't be shocked if it's not close at Homewood.

A lot is being made of unseeded Hofstra's chances to pull off an
upset at No. 3 seed Johns Hopkins, where former Blue Jays offensive
coordinator Seth Tierney brings the Pride (13-2) on Saturday to
open the postseason against the team that dropped Hofstra from its
schedule this year. I'm not buying it. The Blue Jays are quick,
healthy, dialed in too well defensively, scoring in bunches too
effectively, and top face-off man Matt Dolente is controlling
momentum too consistently. And remember, Hofstra is 0-for-2 against
a Delaware team that Hopkins destroyed, 18-5, on Feb. 22, back when
the Blue Jays were a mere shell of the team they have become.

4. Delaware has earned a reputation as road warrior.

The unseeded Delaware Blue Hens love the road. As the fourth
seed in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament, Delaware
interrupted an eight-hour, roundtrip bus ride by knocking off
top-seeded Hofstra, then beat UMass in the middle of a 12-hour
roundtrip to win the CAA and gain an AQ to the NCAAs. On Thursday,
the Blue Hens were bound for Durham, nearly seven hours to the
south, where they will take a crack at defending national champion
Duke on Saturday. "We have a lot of upperclassmen who understand
what's going on this time of year, and we travel really well. But
we're running out of movies [to watch on the bus]," Delaware coach
Bob Shillinglaw said.

5. Stop whining and hit the road, Terps.

After dropping its regular-season finale to Colgate – and
missing injured attackman Grant Catalino and midfielder Joe
Cummings really hurt – the unseeded Maryland Terrapins got
what they deserved. The Terps (10-4) must beat no. 8 seed North
Carolina in Chapel Hill, for the honor of facing top-seeded
Syracuse in the quarterfinals. Maryland has not beaten a
high-quality team outside of the ACC, and its RPI (12) and strength
of schedule (12) proved costly on Selection Sunday. That said, the
Terps should feel good about traveling. They have done most of
their best work on the road. At home, they blew big leads in
meltdowns against Carolina and Hopkins, before suffering that bad
setback against Colgate.

5. Altitude, shmaltitude.

I'm sick of hearing about the mile-high air giving the
sixth-seeded Denver Pioneers such an advantage this weekend against
Villanova. If I could sustain a brisk pace on a strenuous hike of
six miles at more than 8,000 feet in my early 40s, then a bunch of
Division I athletes in prime physical condition can manage things
at 5,000 feet just fine. These aren't 300-pound NFL linemen
pounding each other for 60 to 70 snaps. If Denver loses, it will be
because Nova killed its transition game, covered attackmen Alex
Demopoulos and Mark Matthews like gloves, and controlled things
between the boxes with ground ball eater and turnover machine Brian
Karalunas – not because the Wildcats somehow maintained their
wind in the fourth quarter.

6. No one is afraid of Virginia.

Unseeded Bucknell, in the tournament for the first time since
2001, must be sensing the kill, as it prepares for Sunday's game in
Charlottesville against No. 7 seed Virginia (9-5). The Cavaliers
are not exactly helpless, not with attackmen Steele Stanwick and
Chris Bocklet a threat to light up the scoreboard. But Virginia,
which will be Bratton-less this week – Rhamel remains
suspended while Shamel has finally been kicked off the team –
still is vulnerable on defense and is not exactly playing with
swagger. With the best record in school history, the Bison (14-2)
are playing top-notch defense, sharing the ball extremely well and
are dangerously confident. If Bucknell gets by the Wahoos, it will
give Cornell a battle in the quarterfinals.

7. Last men standing will be Syracuse and Cornell. And
then...

Syracuse (14-1) has too many outstanding, driven seniors to be
denied its third Memorial Day victory in four years, and last
year's first-round stunner against Army lingers very much in the
rear-view mirror. Second-seed Cornell (13-2) has enough depth and
speed, and the otherworldly Rob Pannell has been virtually
unsolvable for two months. But, after Cornell survives a nasty,
dust-up with Hopkins in the semifinals, Pannell will meet his match
in Syracuse senior defenseman John Lade, and the Orange will break
Big Red hearts once again to win it all.