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As bad as this looks and sounds, there is an even worse threat in a nearby volcano that has a history of erupting after the one I won't even try to write the name of and making it look like a pooter in a wind storm. If that happens we will be facing far worse restrictions on air travel for far longer and a climate change that could lead to massive famine from shorter growing seasons and crop failures.

If that does indeed happen the only thing that could be worse would be for Yellowstone or one of the other super volcanos to erupt.

I sure hope this won't be the case. I currently live in the Netherlands and I'll be going home (Curacao) this July for a much needed vacation. It's been 2 years since I've last seen my family and I miss them terribly

As bad as this looks and sounds, there is an even worse threat in a nearby volcano that has a history of erupting after the one I won't even try to write the name of and making it look like a pooter in a wind storm. If that happens we will be facing far worse restrictions on air travel for far longer and a climate change that could lead to massive famine from shorter growing seasons and crop failures.

If that does indeed happen the only thing that could be worse would be for Yellowstone or one of the other super volcanos to erupt.

I hadn't thought about the effects this would have on the food supply. This really is bigger than just affecting travel.

As bad as this looks and sounds, there is an even worse threat in a nearby volcano that has a history of erupting after the one I won't even try to write the name of and making it look like a pooter in a wind storm. If that happens we will be facing far worse restrictions on air travel for far longer and a climate change that could lead to massive famine from shorter growing seasons and crop failures.

If that does indeed happen the only thing that could be worse would be for Yellowstone or one of the other super volcanos to erupt.

You are thinking of Katla a much more serious volcano. Every time this current volcano has erupted in the past it has led to an eruption of Katla

curisland - I had to google to find curacacao- I'd never heard of it. It looks like an interesting place! I'm kind of wondering why I've heard of Aruba but not Curacao since it's bigger. So what is like in the Netherlands and Curacao end times awareness-wise? are there alot of Christians ? How did you find RR? I hope you don't get offended I'm not trying to be nosey

As bad as this looks and sounds, there is an even worse threat in a nearby volcano that has a history of erupting after the one I won't even try to write the name of and making it look like a pooter in a wind storm. If that happens we will be facing far worse restrictions on air travel for far longer and a climate change that could lead to massive famine from shorter growing seasons and crop failures.

If that does indeed happen the only thing that could be worse would be for Yellowstone or one of the other super volcanos to erupt.

(Reuters) - A thaw of Iceland's ice caps in coming decades caused by climate change may trigger more volcanic eruptions by removing a vast weight and freeing magma from deep below ground, scientists said on Friday.

They said there was no sign that the current eruption from below the Eyjafjallajokull glacier that has paralysed flights over northern Europe was linked to global warming. The glacier is too small and light to affect local geology.

"Our work suggests that eventually there will be either somewhat larger eruptions or more frequent eruptions in Iceland in coming decades," said Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a vulcanologist at the University of Iceland.

"Global warming melts ice and this can influence magmatic systems," he told Reuters. The end of the Ice Age 10,000 years ago coincided with a surge in volcanic activity in Iceland, apparently because huge ice caps thinned and the land rose.

"We believe the reduction of ice has not been important in triggering this latest eruption," he said of Eyjafjallajokull. "The eruption is happening under a relatively small ice cap."

Carolina Pagli, a geophysicist at the University of Leeds in England, said there were risks that climate change could also trigger volcanic eruptions or earthquakes in places such as Mount Erebus in Antarctica, the Aleutian islands of Alaska or Patagonia in South America.

MAGMA

"The effects would be biggest with ice-capped volcanoes," she said. "If you remove a load that is big enough you will also have an effect at depths on magma production."

She and Sigmundsson wrote a 2008 paper in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters about possible links between global warming and Icelandic volcanoes.

That report said that about 10 percent of Iceland's biggest ice cap, Vatnajokull, has melted since 1890 and the land nearby was rising about 25 millimetres (0.98 inch) a year, bringing shifts in geological stresses.

They estimated that the thaw had led to the formation of 1.4 cubic km (0.3 cubic mile) of magma deep below ground over the past century.

At high pressures such as under an ice cap, they reckon that rocks cannot expand to turn into liquid magma even if they are hot enough. "As the ice melts the rock can melt because the pressure decreases," she said.

Sigmundsson said that monitoring of the Vatnajokull volcano since 2008 suggested that the 2008 estimate for magma generation was "probably a minimum estimate. It can be somewhat larger."

He said that melting ice seemed the main way in which climate change, blamed mainly on use of fossil fuels, could have knock-on effects on geology. The U.N. climate panel says that global warming will cause more floods, droughts and rising seas.

curisland - I had to google to find curacacao- I'd never heard of it. It looks like an interesting place! I'm kind of wondering why I've heard of Aruba but not Curacao since it's bigger. So what is like in the Netherlands and Curacao end times awareness-wise? are there alot of Christians ? How did you find RR? I hope you don't get offended I'm not trying to be nosey

Lol, you're not being nosy and you didn't offend me!

Curacao is indeed less famous than Aruba.

There are many Catholics in both Curacao and the Netherlands. There are also many Muslims here in Holland. I noticed that the younger generation is more atheist-like though.

As for the end times, my parents told me that it's hotter than usual in Curacao since the last few years. Plus the government is thinking about accepting gay marriage just like the Netherlands. Thank God many people are against that though.
Last winter was unbelievably cold here in Holland! I heard that the last time it's been so cold was 1986 and that this year we'll have a 'hot winter'. I guess I'll just have to wait and see.
At school we're starting to get a lot of courses about globalization (sounds more like propaganda to me).
Morally... well... in my opinion it's going from bad to worse here. People just don't fear God anymore. Tv programs are filled with perversion and what not, that's why I hardly watch it anymore.

That's all I could think of for now lol. though I don't want to get any more off topic hehehe

A mountainous plume of ash generated by an Icelandic volcano is costing the global airline industry US$200 million a day in lost revenue, with no clear estimate on when regular service will resume that figure is expected to rise.

On Friday, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a trade body that serves 230 airlines representing 93 per cent of air traffic, released an early estimate of the financial fallout from the eruption.

“At current levels of disruption, IATA’s initial and conservative estimate of the financial impact on airlines is in excess of US$200 million per day in lost revenues.

“In addition to lost revenues, airlines will incur added costs for re-routing of aircraft, care for stranded passengers and stranded aircraft at various ports.”

An IATA spokesperson said the revenue was only associated with daily revenues related to airspace what was closed and it was “too early to have calculated the additional costs.”

On Wednesday, the volcano beneath Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull glacier erupted, pushing a cloud of ash and particles 6-9,000 metres into the air.

Concerns the microscopic particles could cause airplanes to malfunction resulted in the shut down of air space over Britain, Ireland, France, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Belgium. It has halted flights at Europe's two busiest airports — Heathrow in London and Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris — as well as dozens of other airports, 25 in France alone.

Planes are also grounded in Germany including Düsseldorf, Cologne, Hamburg, Berlin and the airspace around Frankfurt, and parts of Poland including Warsaw's airport.

On Friday, Eurocontrol, the European air traffic agency, said airline service was cut in half, with only 11,000 flights expected to operate in Europe - compared to the usual 28,000.

Air Canada has halted flights to London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich and Geneva.

The loss of the London route is probably costing Air Canada between $2-3 million a day, said Joseph R. D'Cruz with the Joseph L. Rotman School of Management with the University of Toronto.

“When they stop flying the loss in profits is small but the losses that come about because of fixed costs that are not being covered are very substantial,” said D’Cruz. “So it is pretty serious, but it is short-term.”

The flight to London is Air Canada’s most heavily travelled route, he said.

D’Cruz equated the temporary stoppage to a heavy winter storm and said while he doesn’t expect revenue generated through economy travel to suffer in the long term, the impact on business class will likely be more severe. When high-end flights are suddenly halted people explore other less costly travel or work options, often sticking with them in the long term, he said.

The eruption could translate into a 5 per cent decrease in business travel long-term, he said. Business class accounts for 50-60 per cent of Air Canada’s transatlantic flights, he said.

Douglas McNeill, a transportation analyst with Charles Stanley Securities in London, England, said larger European airlines, including British Airways, will lose more than $15.5 million every day their planes stay on the tarmac.

“This is an unusual event, but it is not completely without precedent because things like this are always happening in the aviation business,” said McNeill, who said airlines have a pool of cash to buffer short term disruptions.

“If the disruption continues for many more days then the financial damage will start to get a bit more painful, but for the time being it is limited.”

British Airways “has nearly ($3.1 billion) in the bank so the loss of ($15.5 million) is neither here nor there in terms of liquidity or solvency terms.”

He said the shutdown would need to go beyond a week for the airlines to start feeling serious pressure.

A year ago it would be different, he said. McNeill said there used to be a group of relatively weak players in the European airline industry, but high fuel prices and the recession squeezed them out.

“It was carnage,” he said.

“So the airlines that remain have had their business models tested in adversity and have shown themselves to be resilient.”

McNeill said on Friday, European airline stocks were “all off a little bit,” but described the declines as small falls when taken in context of an industry that has been enjoying a healthy run.

All I do is sneeze mention of a story and you go and find the scoop.....amazing!!!

I usually try to find more details so I can get a better idea of what exactly is involved and I figure others on the board would also like to see more details, so I try to find something on whatever the topic may be and link to it.

(Reuters) - The volcanic ash cloud making much of northern Europe a no-fly zone has hurt the prices of airline stocks, paralyzed air cargo delivery and disrupted business and leisure travel.

But analysts expect the overall economic impact to be minor, since the disruption appears unlikely to last continuously over a long period.

HOW LONG WILL THE DISRUPTION LAST?

This depends on how long the volcano under Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull glacier keeps erupting, whether it continues spewing ash, and whether winds carry the ash toward Europe.

The volcano's previous eruption lasted over a year, but changes in wind and weather patterns could disperse the ash; many analysts think the cloud will not linger over Europe for more than a few days at a time.

If the volcano does continue to erupt, occasional disruption will be possible over six months or more, experts say. Much will depend on whether Eyjafjallajokull triggers a new eruption from the nearby and larger Katla volcano, which has happened in the past. That could magnify the impact.

Countries are proving able to resume flights quite quickly when local conditions improve. Ireland has reopened its airspace and Britain says some of its northern airspace may reopen later on Friday. But the cloud continues to drift south, affecting more countries.

"The overall impact should be very limited even if the problem persists for a day or more...Just as people can't get into the UK, people can't get out," IHS Global Insight chief UK and European economist Howard Archer said in a research note.

"So the people stranded in the UK will have to find places to stay and eat, so they will be spending money here rather than abroad."

Business meetings have been canceled across Europe as a result of staff being unable to attend, but analysts say they will largely be replaced with teleconferences or rearranged.

If extended disruption to air travel hits supply chains, factories will be able to reduce the damage by using sea, river or road cargo, or changing procurement plans.

Around 17,000 flights were expected to be canceled on Friday, with airspace closed across much of Europe.

Shares in Lufthansa, British Airways, Air Berlin, Air France-KLM, Iberia, Ryanair and SAS fell between 2 and 4 percent. Ryanair said it would cancel flights to and from northern European countries until 1200 GMT on Monday.

The disruption is costing airlines more than $200 million a day, air industry body IATA estimated.

Fraport AG, which operates Germany's main airport in Frankfurt, says its initial estimate was for the ash to cost it between 2.5 million and 3 million euros per day.

Iceland's location means the eruption could prompt wider disruption to international flights.

"Iceland sits right on one of the key routes between Europe and the USA and...depending on meteorological conditions it could also affect flights from Europe to Asia, so there are two big international flows which could be affected by this," said John Strickland, director of air transport consultancy JLS Consulting.

"You can still get disruptions to other flights or have to take more circuitous routes, which adds costs and maybe even requires planes to land because they can't go on the direct route."

ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT

Eurostar, which runs trains between London and the European continent, said trains were operating at full capacity and it might lay on additional trains if necessary.

London taxi firm Addison Lee said it had taken requests for journeys to Paris, Milan, Zurich and Salzburg in Austria.

AIR CARGO

Grounded air cargo flights have halted delivery of items such as microchips, flowers and mail. Europe's largest mail and express delivery company Deutsche Post said it was switching to road transport where possible.

Switching to sea cargo might be an option for longer deliveries, although not for perishables such as flowers, but shipping analysts said it would likely take at least several more days before firms started rebooking by sea.

Pharmaceutical supplies in particular are often transported by air, but experts said there were sufficient stocks so there should be no serious shortages for now.

ENERGY

JBC Energy's model for European jet fuel consumption puts daily consumption at 1.17 million barrels a day, so assuming an estimated 80 percent of Europe's airports are shut for 48 hours, the disruption will cut 1.87 million barrels of demand.

"Some demand will simply disappear -- those who need to fly will eventually fly, but there will definitely be some flights that just do not take place," said JBC Energy oil analyst David Wech.

European jet fuel price spot differentials to the ICE-traded gas oil contract fell to $48 a metric ton on Friday from $50.50 on Thursday. But analysts said the long-term price impact would be minimal once flights resumed; much airline buying is done through long-term contracts.

European oil, gas and electricity production is not expected to suffer. Some helicopter flights to and from oil rigs in the Norwegian Sea have resumed; the effect on solar power plants is unlikely to be greater than the impact from any other passing cloud, while wind power industry sources said cold volcanic dust on wind turbines should not cause any problems.

INSURANCE IMPACT

Airlines are expected to have little recourse to insurance firms. Most airlines are neither insured against cancellations nor business disruption at airports.

Insurer Munich Re said it could offer cancellation insurance to airlines if necessary. "Up to now there has not been demand in the market, said a spokeswoman. "Maybe that will change now."

HEALTH IMPACT

The World Health Organization warns the dust could cause problems for those with breathing difficulties, though it has not yet assessed this particular eruption.

A Scottish expert on respiratory disease told Reuters that the low-toxicity ash falling on Britain was unlikely to do much harm as a very high exposure would be needed to have much effect on people.

CLIMATE, AGRICULTURAL IMPACT

Scientists say the eruption does not seem to have produced enough dust or gas to alter the climate or impact agriculture, and should have no effect on global warming trends. A larger eruption from the Katla volcano might be a different matter.

Picture: The volcano Katla is located underneath the Mýrdalsjökull icecap. Photo by Páll Stefánsson.

Glaciologist Helgi Björnsson is concerned that the current volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull glacier could cause the neighboring volcano Katla to erupt as well, which could have much more serious consequences.

“The maximum flow in glacial bursts caused by Katla can be fifty or one hundred times more voluminous than what we have seen flow out of Gígjökull [an Eyjafjallajökull glacial tongue]. When the flood comes you better make a run for it,” Björnsson told mbl.is. Katla is hidden underneath the Mýrdalsjökull icecap.

“There are eruption channels between Eyjafjallajökull and Katla and magma could shoot into the Katla volcano. Katla might only need a nudge,” Björnsson said.

The glaciologist added that what we are witnessing now is a multiplex and unique spectacle of fire and ice. As the eruption in Eyjafjallajökull is still going strong, people should be aware that it might behave similarly as in the last eruption, in 1821.

At that time the eruption began shortly before Christmas in 1821 and carried on for more than a year, until after New Year’s Eve 1823, Björnsson pointed out.