Many believe the following chart of the VIX signals the end of the global correction. The fear index climbed to the 20-level late last week, as it did twice on apparent corrections in 2013, only to fail at resistance and allow stocks to turn higher again.

A similar expectation would be reasonable now, were it not for the weekly chart of the VIX below. It shows a continuing positive divergence in the VIX primary trend, with the indicators healthier on this test of resistance than on both prior tests. The differences suggest a different outcome this time around, arguably a push past 22.

But the weekly is not the only improved VIX pattern. The monthly VIX shows development of its own upturn. And if it’s not quite as mature, even a forecast breakout in the long-term VIX carries consequences for stocks that far exceed those associated with the weekly. In fact, nothing could affect stocks more. Think of the last divergent monthly upturn in the VIX circa 2007.

The monthly VIX has been improving for a year. Progress began in March 2013, when the index posted its last new low. In the eleven months since, each VIX low has been successively higher. Each bounce high over the period has also been successively higher. That’s a pattern that should be respected, especially against a backdrop of positively divergent indicators. Instead, as of this writing, the pattern has been ignored. It should not be.