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After years of losing, Democrats hope to gain Ohio Statehouse seats in 2018

Updated February 7, 2018 at 3:05 PM;Posted February 7, 2018 at 2:58 PM

Ohio Democrats have lost legislative seats in every election since 2008. But in 2018, Democrats have filed candidates to run in every legislative race for the first time in years, and even Republicans are preparing to lose seats this November.(Jeremy Pelzer, cleveland.com)

COLUMBUS, Ohio--At a time when Republicans hold a record high number of seats in the Ohio General Assembly, Democrats are feeling good about their chances this November.

For the first time in six years, Democrats are fielding candidates in every legislative race this year. And though a lot can happen between now and the general election, Republicans are quietly preparing to lose Statehouse seats for the first time since 2010.

Even if a so-called "blue wave" crashes over Ohio this year, it's unlikely to lift Democrats to majorities in either legislative chamber - Republicans hold 24 of 33 Senate seats and 66 of 99 House seats. But it could help Democrats crack GOP supermajorities: if they win at least four Senate seats or six House seats, Republicans would no longer have the three-fifths majority needed to override gubernatorial vetoes or put measures on the statewide ballot without Democratic votes.

"It's very likely that Democrats pick up seats in the legislature in 2018," said John Green, director of the University of Akron's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics. Historically, the party that doesn't control the White House tends to win midterm elections, Green noted, and this year there are a lot of legislative seats (specifically, 21 in the House and six in the Senate) where Republicans aren't running again, mostly because of term limits or because they're running for higher office.

Even so, because of gerrymandering, only a limited number of seats are in play this year. House Democrats are focusing on about a dozen or so GOP-held House seats they consider vulnerable, including seven districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (most of which are currently held by Republicans who can't run again because of term limits). Senate Democrats, meanwhile, are looking to compete in five or six districts held by term-limited Republicans. (Because Senate terms are staggered, only 17 Senate seats are on the ballot this year.)

Meanwhile, no Democratic-held districts appear to be easy Republican pickups this year, though that's mainly because Republicans during the past two election cycles have snapped up every legislative race that was even remotely competitive for them.

One of the Senate seats Democrats are eyeing is District 29, where Republican incumbent Scott Oelslager is term-limited. Running against Republican House Speaker Pro Tem Kirk Schuring for the seat is Lauren Friedman, a 37-year-old U.S. Naval Academy graduate from North Canton who works for the Stark County Board of Developmental Disabilities.

Friedman has never run for political office before. After Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, she became a political activist, but she said in an interview that she feels that's not enough.

"What I realized over more than a year is that I have to be one of the people who steps up to make the change actually happen," Friedman said. "It's not enough for me to just vote ...and make phone calls or write emails."

Even if 2018 is a Democratic wave year, Ohio legislative Republicans still have a number of advantages. Most Republican Senate and House candidates are either running for re-election or currently hold another office, which gives them invaluable name recognition. The GOP also has way more money to spend on their candidates: the Ohio Senate Republicans' campaign arm, for example, reported last week that it has $2.8 million in its bank account, while the Senate Democrats had just $42,402 on hand.

Kenny Street, who heads the Ohio House Republicans' campaign arm, voiced confidence that Republicans will have a strong showing this year, noting that Democrats entered the 2016 election with similarly high expectations but ended up losing two legislative seats.

"Every election has its challenges, certainly," Street said. "But Republicans' enthusiasm, as I travel district to district, is still as high as it ever has been in my five years around here. I feel good about our shot."