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[latam] BOLIVIA/CHILE - COUNTRY BRIEF PM

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID

2050859

Date

2010-09-30 22:49:47

From

paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com

To

rbaker@stratfor.com, latam@stratfor.com

List-Name

latam@stratfor.com

BOLIVIA

o Govt says that Bolivia is not vulnerable to financial crisis
o Boliviaa**s Proposed Law Against Racism Raises Censorship Questions
o Total Aims to Boost Gas Production in Bolivia

The Bolivian government has gotten itself into a strange debate about free
speech. A proposed a**law against racism and all forms of
discrimination,a** which President Evo Morales is strongly backing, would
allow the government to shut down newspapers or broadcasters that publish
racist material.

Reporters Without Borders says this gives the government broad powers to
censor media. For his part, Morales says the law is just part of a push to
end Bolivia's long history of discrimination and oppression.

Morales can speak with direct passion on this issue. He is Aymara, from
the countryside and he is Bolivia's first indigenous presidenta**the
country has been dominated for centuries by its tiny European elite. It's
perhaps not surprising, then, that he responded in highly personal terms
when I asked him about press freedom under the new law (during a press
briefing last week, on the fringes of the UN General Assembly.)

Morales grew up hearing stories from his mother about the racism of city
people, who drove her off the sidewalks when she came into town and made
her walk in the dirt a**with the horse, with the animals.a** He saw
first-hand how impoverished campesinos were routinely turned out of banks
and driven away from city centers. And his own story, for him, is symbolic
of Bolivia's transformation: a**we can all walk into the Plaza Murillo,
now. Then we got into Parliamenta**and now we are in the Palace, we
oppressed ones.a**

What happens, though, when the oppressed one is suddenly in the position
of the oppressora**when he sits in his palace and tries to keep his
enemies at bay? In 2008 there was a period of violent unrest in Bolivia,
and some media made ugly, race-baiting attacks on Morales. Last week,
Morales brought up those media attacks as though it had happened
yesterday: a**They said, that Indian president, we have to kill him,a** he
repeated. Looking in my eyes, he said, a**Would you tolerate that?a** He
added, a**If this is the way they talk about the president, how will they
treat the ordinary campesino?a**

But the comparison doesn't work. The newspapers attacked Morales because
he is the president. Racism is the accelerant for the attack, and gives
bite and venom to the attack; but the real issue here is power, and the
elites' fear of losing that power.

The solution to this battle cannot be to censor the press. We learn about
each other through confrontation. Censorship freezes debate, so that
instead of having a living, evolving conversation between two sides, we
have a sterile argument, playing out in the echo chamber of our
imaginations. Already, even before the passage of the law, Morales is
showing signs of being stuck in his own feedback loop.

When asked about the law against racism, he was unable to talk about
anything more recent than 2008. He referred repeatedly to the media
attacks and to the alleged coup attempts; later, he accused the U.S. in
general terms of trying to overthrow him. This may well be accurate, and
certainly Morales has powerful, single-minded enemies among the Bolivian
elite. Still there must be a way of engaging with them rather than
shutting down their media.

Morales himself may have the best of intentions. Personally, I believe him
to be sincerely and steadfastly working to better his country: a**The idea
isn't to end or shut down the media,a** he says; the idea is to punish
those who abuse their position as journalists and cross the line to make
vile, racist attacks.

The question is, though, who will ultimately decide what it means to cross
the line? How can we be sure that a future administration won't abuse the
law and use it to censor the opposition? This law, if it passes, will give
the government the power to shut down any media outlet that runs afoul of
the government's wishes. That is not a power that any government should
have. After all, what will happen if Morales' successor is less honest,
less sincere, than Morales? Laws have to be stronger and more enduring
than individuals, or else individuals will take advantage of the law.

Paulo Gregoire
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com

Total Aims to Boost Gas Production in Bolivia

September 30,2010

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=368842&CategoryId=14919

LA PAZ a** French oil major Total says it plans to raise its investment in
Bolivia to achieve production of 6 million cubic meters (211.5 million
cubic feet) of natural gas per day at the Itau field.

Totala**s exploration and production director, Yves Louis Derricarrere,
announced that target for Itau, which is 75 percent owned by Total and 25
percent owned by BG Group and is due to come online in January with output
of 1.5 million cmd.

Derricarrere and other company executives met Tuesday with Bolivian
President Evo Morales.

a**Wea**ve had talks with President Morales to present different projects
through which we want to continue investing in this country,a** the
official ABI news agency quoted Derricarrere as saying.

Total, operating alone or in partnership with other energy companies,
participates in 60 percent of Boliviaa**s overall gas production, which
exceeds 40 million cmd.

State-owned energy firm Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos said
in a report that on Jan. 1, 2011, Itau will begin producing 1.5 million
cmd of gas and 1,060 barrels of condensate.

Itaua**s natural gas output is due to rise to 3.5 million cmd and 5
million cmd in 2013 and 2015, respectively, YPFB said. EFE

SANTIAGO -(Dow Jones)- Chilean President Sebastian Pinera fully backs the
government of Ecuador's President Rafael Correa and called for a meeting
of the Unasur regional economic and political bloc to discuss the recent
events in the Andean nation.

Members of Ecuador's national police and air force on Thursday went on
strike against the Correa administration over benefits reforms.

"We've contacted the presidents of the Unasur bloc...to call for a meeting
so that the support of the democratic countries to the Ecuadorean
democracy is strong and clear," Pinera said.

Pinera added that he spoke to Correa earlier in the day and that he
expressed Chile's "absolute and total support for President Correa, the
Ecuadorean people, constitutional order and democracy in Ecuador."

SANTIAGO (Dow Jones)--The Chilean peso ended at a 27-month high against
the dollar Thursday as international copper prices held at a two-year
high, sparking a new round of exporters' demands for intervention in the
foreign exchange market.

The peso finished at CLP483.50 to the dollar, compared with CLP485.50 the
prior session, while trading in a range of CLP482.70 to CLP485.00.

With Chile producing over one-third of the world's copper, the peso often
takes cues from the metal's international prices. Copper prices held at
the two-year high it reached following a four-month rally driven by
improving industrial demand and concerns about supply.

As the strength of the peso cuts into the competitiveness of Chilean
exports and because the local economy is highly dependent on its exports,
exporters are turning up the heat as they demand market intervention.

Earlier in the day, Chilean agricultural workers threatened general
protests if the central bank doesn't intervene in the peso market.

During the second quarter the peso gained 8.8% on the greenback, while for
the year it has strengthened a milder 4.6% against the dollar.

Although in Latin America, Brazil, Colombia and Peru have already
intervened to tamp down their currencies due to the dollar's broad
international weakness, the Chilean monetary authority isn't expected to
intervene in the local currency market unless the peso strengthens past
CLP460 or CLP470.

"While in nominal terms the exchange rate is concerning exporters, the
real exchange rate is still considerably above levels that would merit
intervention," said a local currency trader.

The last time the central bank intervened in the currency market, in April
2008, the peso was trading at 10-year highs against the dollar.

Tierra Amarilla, Chile (CNN) -- Gilberto Angulos does not need to say a
word to tell the tale of working 30 years in Chile's mines. His broken
body does all the talking for him.

A jagged scar runs down his forehead. A metal plate keeps his fractured
left forearm together. A bone never properly set juts from his left
shoulder.

The injuries are the remnants of a mine explosion that nearly killed him.
In 2003, Angulos was driving excavation equipment in a large copper mine
when he felt a rush of air.

"I got knocked back into the equipment, and rocks came crashing down. The
equipment was completely destroyed, and the rocks came down on top of me,"
he said. "With all the rocks landing on top of me, I was covered in
bruises. All over my body.

"I was lucky; I got hit by rocks, but none landed directly on top of me,"
Angulos said, holding his hands a foot and a half apart to indicate the
size of the projectiles raining down. "If they had, I'd be dead."

Instead of being killed, Angulos was taken 1,300 miles (2,092 km) south to
Santiago, where he spent a year in the hospital. The damage to the miner
was permanent.

Angulos said the accident could have been avoided.

Ten explosive charges had misfired. As well as blasting loose tons of rock
to be harvested for copper, the charges ripped into the miner. Despite the
severity of his injuries, Angulos received little compensation.

"They paid for the hospital in Santiago," he said, "and for my wife to
come be with me for a month. That was it."

And, he said, little changed at the mine following the accident.

"No one asked any questions, asked me what happened or increased
supervision," he said. "There was an explosion, end of story."

With the San Jose mine collapse that trapped 33 men in Chile this summer,
new scrutiny is being placed on the country's lucrative mining industry.

Government officials said the owner and operator of that mine, the San
Esteban Mining Co., did not complete promised improvements to the mine
where the men have been trapped since August 5, 2,300 feet (701 meters)
underground.

After the collapse, President Sebastian PiA+-era dismissed top officials
at the country's mine regulating agency, saying, "We've found there were
many deficiencies, many errors and many omissions."

Many of the 33 trapped miners and their peers have had numerous brushes
with death in the depths of a mine.

Mario Gomez had two fingers sliced off by falling rocks. Victor Segovia
spent a year recovering after a rock slammed into his back.

Franklin Lobos was trapped for three hours during a previous cave-in.
Hector Avila worked 20 years in the mines and became close friends with
several of the now-trapped miners when he worked with them at the San Jose
mine.

When asked why he left the San Jose mine, Avila rolls up his right pant
leg to show the spider web of scars across his crushed foot.

A rock was driven into his foot with the force of a bullet after explosive
charges in the mine misfired, Avila said.

A geologist was killed in the same 2007 accident, prompting the closure of
the San Jose mine. But the mine was reopened soon after.

A government investigation is trying to determine why it was reopened if
improvements to the mine's safety were apparently never completed.

The San Esteban Mining Co. did not return calls requesting comment on its
safety record.

They company is facing bankruptcy and may lack the funds to pay its
workers.

Avila said he and other workers had a name for the most dangerous mines
they worked: "kamikaze" mines.

"It's about need, about needing to take care of your family," Avila said.
"You become going like a kamikaze down into a dangerous mine. As miners,
we lived with the danger just the way kamikazes did in their attacks."

An accident at a different mine cost Avila his livelihood and his left leg
after a steel beam fell on him. The leg was sheared off, he said, and he
nearly died.

Since 2000, 374 miners have died practicing their trade in Chile,
according to government statistics. For some Chilean mining communities,
the risks that come with working in the depths of the Earth are part of
the fabric of life.

The mining town of Tierra Amarilla supplies many of its men to the area's
mines, including the San Esteban mine, where the trapped workers await
rescue. In an area of town called Villa Mineros, the streets are named for
miners who did not return alive from the hunt for copper and gold.

Under a sign that reads Ivan Gonzalez Way, a woman sweeps her doorstep.
She looks up at the sign as if noticing it for the time when asked who
Gonzalez was.

She is not sure but said, "He was a miner. We are the family of miners, so
we honor them."

Down the town's one main road, the family of killed miner Ricardo Rojas
has just returned from seeing a lawyer.

They have been told that the attorney couldn't take on their case for what
they could pay him. Rojas died in April, after being crushed under tons of
rock in a copper mine.

He was 29 years old and left his wife, Pamela, with three small children
to raise alone. Before her husband died, Pamela said, she wanted him to
quit the mines.

"They always gave him the dangerous jobs," Pamela said. "He would say,
'Baby, I don't want to go to work tomorrow. I have to do this job, and I
don't want to,' and I would say 'Baby, don't go,' but then he would say,
'I have to, or they will run me off.' "

The Rosario Mine, where Rojas worked, did not return calls about the case.
There has not been an investigation into his death, his wife said, and
after she complained to the company, her husband's paychecks stopped
coming.

"We want this cleared up. We want answers. We want justice," she said.

For many miners, though, the risks of the job are weighed against the need
to provide for their families.

After he was released from the hospital, half-deaf and his body twisted
from the mine accident, Angulos was given a desk job.

But when job cuts hit the mining industry, Angulos had only one place to
go: back to the mines. He is grateful for the work but also terrified.

"I am doing the same work as before, with the same machine, and its tough,
because I have pain in this arm," Angulos said. "It's risky to have me
back working in the mine. You should be 100 percent to do this kind of
work."

Chile's Pinera says 2011 budget aims to ease peso

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3028885020100930

SANTIAGO, Sept 30

Businessmen in Chile, a major producer of fruit, wine and wood pulp, have
urged authorities to curb the peso, which is trading at over two-year
highs and is eating away their revenues paid in dollars abroad.

"We want to maintain macroeconomic equilibrium and strengthen the exchange
rate (dollar against peso), which is very important for our agriculture
and exporter sectors," Pinera told reporters, only hours before he is
scheduled to reveal the details of the 2011 budget.

Finance Minister Felipe Larrain has said the government aims to slow the
pace of fiscal spending to allow the peso to weaken in the world's top
copper producer.

SANTIAGO -(Dow Jones)- Chile's giant hydroelectric HidroAysen project
could bring the first of its five power plants online in 2018 or 2019,
Energy Minister Ricardo Raineri said Thursday.

The $3.2-billion HidroAysen project, a joint venture between Chilean power
generators Empresa Nacional de Electricidad SA (EOC, ENDESA.SN) and Colbun
SA (COLBUN.SN), still needs to get environmental approval and recently
requested more time to respond to comments on its environmental-impact
study.

"If all the [environmental] studies for HidroAysen, including for the
transmission line, run smoothly, they'll probably get approval for the
project at the end of 2013 and their investment decision will be made in
2014...and from there the first plant will be in operation in four or five
years," Raineri said in a speech to the Asimet metallurgical industry
trade group.

After first submitting the project's environmental-impact study in August
2008, the environmental-approval process has been plagued with delays.

The controversial 2,750-megawatt hydropower project consists of five power
plants on the Baker and Pascua rivers in the southern Aysen region. Fierce
critics of the project oppose its plans to damn the rivers and plans for a
transmission line that would span nearly 2,000 kilometers through pristine
land.

Chile, which currently has some 15,000 megawatts of installed capacity,
needs to add nearly 10,000 megawatts over the next 10 years in order to
keep up with forecasts for rising energy demand as the Andean nation's
gross domestic product is expected to grow by 5% to 6% annually over the
period.

"Between now and 2013 we've got some 2,500 megawatts covered in projects
that are already undergoing construction," Raineri said. "That leaves an
additional 7,500 megawatts that we need install from 2014 onwards. We're
very aware of the fact that the energy sector is vital for the nation's
growth."

One of conservative President Sebastian Pinera's main goals is to have
Chile's economy expand by 6% annually during his four-year term.

The south of Chile is becoming appealing to oil and gas exploration
companies, according to Dwayne Warkentin, CEO of Canada's Madalena
Ventures.

"Chile is one of the countries we are strongly looking at," Warkentin told
BNamericas. "We think that for sure there is potential in the south of
Chile."

Magdalena has interest in three exploratory blocks in Argentina's Neuquen
basin but could potentially look into acquiring new assets in the region,
according to the CEO.

"We were really very surprised by GeoPark's success with its oil
discovery," Warkentin said. "I think the good acreage in Chile might
already be held. So the best bet is to make a deal with someone rather
than to go in on new blocks."

London-listed GeoPark (LSE: GPK), which conducts E&P in the south of Chile
along with state oil company Enap and a handful of other international oil
companies, recently announced an internal 2P estimate of 55Mboe following
success at its Guanaco 4 oil well.

"I have to say when I first looked at Chile three years ago with all those
new blocks coming up the process was a little long, the time horizon for
our kind of company to commit dollars was not good enough. Neuquen allowed
us to move faster than in Chile," he continued. "But terms are improving
there."