Nicholas Stuart is a columnist with the Canberra Times.
Nick Stuart has written three books,
Kevin Rudd: An Unauthorised Political Biography;
What Goes Up: Behind the 2007 Election; and
Rudd's Way: November 2007 - June 2010.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

THE END

I'm posting this a day late, I'm afraid.

It appeared in the Canberra Times on the morning of the vote.

Photo from the Brisbane Times

Nothing more to be said, really.

This is the end . . .

6 years of lost opportunity

Nobody needs me to tell them how
to vote. Regular readers of this column are, almost by definition, intelligent
and discerning; you will have no difficulty picking a fake counterfeit from the
false forgery. Of course, it’s not the leaders we vote for and, at least in the
Times’ normal circulation region, the result is pretty much pre-ordained.

In the ACT, Labor MP’s Gay
Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh will be keenly watching the size of their
majorities. Their scrutineers will note any comments scrawled on the ballot
paper but please try to keep these down to merely a helpful sentence or two,
rather than an epistle that might encapsulate how you really feel. Some of his former
colleagues, for example, may wish to ask Professor Leigh why his party cut
higher education funding?

These results are, nonetheless,
pretty much foregone conclusions, as is the ACT’s Senate vote. No matter how
great the disillusion surrounding the squalid way Zed Seselja unseated Gary
Humphries, he will be returned as the Territory’s second Senator. And welcome
back (again) Kate Lundy, occupying Labor’s seat for seventeen years now.
Goodness, what a long time.

These are, however, good people. Many
voters may seriously doubt the capacity of the respective party leaders and yet
vouchsafe these members their trust. Similarly over in Hume to the west, where
the young, dynamic and intelligent Angus Taylor will (almost inevitably)
replace Alby Schultz as the Liberal member.

But if the way some seats will fall
seems obvious, the situation to Canberra’s east in Eden-Monaro is much more
uncertain. The bellwether marginal’s representative has, since 1972, always sat
on the government benches and that’s where Labor’s Mike Kelly is today. It’s
also why the Liberal’s Peter Hendy could expect to be elected almost
automatically. After all, that’s what voters in the seat do. This time,
however, he can’t be that can’t be certain and the result will prove just how
important the local member’s personality can be.

A former military lawyer, Kelly’s
larger than life. He’s got some great ideas for reforming our defences too,
although he won’t get a chance to put those into practice from opposition. His
warmth has earned him a large personal following and he’s a very different
character to his opponent.

Hendy originally came from Peter
Reith’s office and then he became CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and
Industry. He was a key driver behind Workchoices. That’s why his opponent
brings this issue up whenever they appear together, although Hendy’s been
dodging media appearances with Kelly lately. That’s probably a clever strategy
for him, because the last thing he wants is a local fight. As long as the focus
remains on Rudd, he’s got it won. If the Liberals had a local candidate who’s
wasn’t so divisive, they’d be more confident.

Nationally, after the election –
whatever the result – Labor and the Greens are going to have to find a new way
to live and work together. It will be interesting to see by how much the Green
vote declines nationally, because that will provide a clue to the future
direction of the broader left.

As usual the Greens will proclaim how ‘close’ they came; how
they nearly achieved a ‘surprise’ result; and that’ll be it. Until next time,
when we’ll go through the whole charade again. What the pollies are really
after is the funding. Every scrawled “1” is worth a bit over $2.48 (or $4.97
for the Senate and Reps combined). All a candidate needs to do to qualify is
receive more than four percent of the vote.

This is, of course, a way of
boosting the coffers of the big players. That explains why they voted
themselves the money. It ensures they (and people like Clive Palmer) can
effortlessly outspend minor groups campaigning on specific issues.

The key for the Liberals is going
to be the size of the swing. It’s just like the tide; when it’s receding away (as
it is from Labor at the moment), nothing, perhaps not even good local members,
can turn it round. Equally, if you catch the wave at the right moment it’s
possible to surf it in like a pro – it’s all in the timing.

So what to say at the party
tonight? Firstly, watch the number of informal votes. If (as I suspect) this is
down on last time, pontificate about how, last time, Labor’s voters weren’t convinced
by Julia Gillard but now they’ve decided to vote against Rudd. Watch imbecilic
local candidates like Jaymes Diaz. He couldn’t explain Liberal policy about
stopping the boats; but will this be enough to stop the votes as Abbott brings
the water in? Or how about Fiona Scott, another Liberal, Western Sydney
candidate, who’s worried about all the traffic congestion that could be caused
by asylum seekers? Oh, and Page and Barton. If Labor saves these, then the
change to Rudd will have been worthwhile. Otherwise it was a self-indulgent
disaster.

The irony is that neither of
these people would have been Tony Abbott’s choice for his candidates in these
must win seats. Still, we all have to take what we’re given – like it or not.