2018 Six Nations final weekend: Who needs what to finish where?

And so it goes. This is the final weekend of the Six Nations. Just where has the time gone? Unless you’ve been living under a rock you’ll probably know that Ireland have already secured the title, with their win over Scotland and England’s loss to France making the points difference insurmountable.

But this doesn’t mean that there’s nothing left to play for. Not only have Ireland got the Grand Slam on the cards, the other nations have finishing position bragging rights, as well as World Ranking positions up for grabs. It’s pretty tight and contestable in the mid-table, with any one of England, France, Scotland and Wales able to occupy any position from second to fifth.

Below is the table as it stands after Round 4.

Ireland are away and clear, eight points ahead with only five available from the final round. Wales are best of the rest on 11 points, with England, France and Scotland on 10, 10 and 8 points respectively. Italy sadly, have yet to pick up even a losing bonus point from any of their matches.

The fixtures are for the final weekend are shown below, along with our predictions for each match.

So who needs what to finish where? Let’s approach this on a game by game basis, in order to show how it might unfold on the day. You can then use this article to see what your team needs to do to finish where as the action progresses. We will also be live tweeting requirements and situations on the day, so please follow us @Rugby4Cast to stay up-to-date.

Italy v Scotland

Italy and Scotland kick of the action at 1230. For the Italians there is nothing but pride at stake as they cannot finish anywhere but 6th. For the Scots however, there is all to play for, with even a tiny chance of 2nd should they demolish the Azzurri and other results go their way.

If Scotland lose, they will finish 5th.

If Scotland win, but don’t obtain the bonus point, they would end up on 12 points. This would mean they can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th. Scotland would be:

Above England should England lose, but below them should England win,

Above France should France lose, but below them should France win,

Level with Wales should Wales lose (but likely below due to points difference) but below them should Wales win.

If Scotland win, and obtain the bonus point, they would end up on 13 points. This would allow them the slim chance of finishing 2nd if England lose AND Wales and France draw. In this situation, Scotland and Wales would be on level points, and it would come down to points difference. To overcome the points difference between themselves and Wales however, Scotland would need to beat Italy by 65 points. Unlikely, we feel.

So let’s assume Scotland beat Italy, and finish on 12 or 13 points. The table would look something like this, with the Scots jumping up into second place.

England v Ireland

England welcome Ireland to Twickenham next and, with an Irish Grand Slam on the line, this is surely the hot ticket of the day. For England however, national pride and 2017 revenge aside, there is a lot still to play for.

If England lose, and don’t obtain a losing bonus point they would likely finish 5th, but it could still depend on points difference in the Wales France match.

If England lose, and obtain a bonus point, they would likely finish:

4th if Wales beat France

5th if France beat Wales

If England win, but without a bonus point, they will leapfrog Scotland onto 14 points, and would either finish 2nd or 3rd depending on the outcome of the France Wales match.

Should Wales win, England would be 3rd.

Should France win, without a bonus point, England would likely be 2nd.

Should France win, with a bonus point, England would likely be 3rd.

If England win, and obtain a bonus point, they would likely finish 2nd, as it would probably require bonus point win by either Wales or France to catch them.

Let’s assume England win at home as our algorithm suggests (sorry Ireland), but without the bonus point and end up on 14 points. In this situation the table would look as follows.

Wales v France

The final match of the day kicks off in Cardiff at 1700. By this stage everyone will likely be far too drunk to make head nor tail of points required, so here it is as simply as possible.

If England have won,

Whoever wins in Cardiff will likely come 2nd (but it could still come down to points difference).

If England have lost,

Whoever wins in Cardiff will definitely come 2nd.

Under both circumstances, the loser will finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on bonus points and points difference.

If Wales win as our model suggest, the final table will look as follows.

Summary

So there you have it! It’s all perfectly simple really. And the wonderful thing about it is that after the first game all of this will likely be completely redundant anyway.

BUT, we’ll update all the requirements as the matches progress, so make sure you follow to stay abreast of proceedings.