The most important statistic in fantasy football

Is there one be-all, end-all statistic that you must know about? Our staff weighs in.

Everything doesn’t come full circle at 360 touches

Cory Bonini, senior fantasy editor: While topping 400 carries is generally thought of as the death knell, 360 offensive touches is a rarity in today’s NFL. Only eight running backs have topped that mark in the past three seasons.

Both running backs are immensely talented two-way threats and have battled injuries at times in their careers. McCoy has been banged up twice already in the preseason; Forte turns 29 years old this season.

Red flags? Probably more like a yellow cautions … receiving backs take less of a pounding, because they aren’t slamming into the big bodies as much.

(Chris Humphreys, USA TODAY Sports)

Yards after the catch tell an important story

Tim Heaney, senior fantasy writer: It’s hard to pick one. Definitely agree with Cory’s. Yards per reception and the Pro Football Focus depth of target metric are important; they separate the big-play wide receivers from the rest.

I’ll stay along those lines. I typically look closely at yards after the catch. Unless I’m scraping for value in a point-per-reception league, I prefer someone who consistently makes a play and doesn’t just go down after a catch.

As is the case with any other stat, context is vital. A fellow Denver Broncos catcher, Julius Thomas, had just 390 YAC last year, which ranked 38th in the league, but fourth among tight ends. Fun fact: Antonio Gates (410) was second to Jimmy Graham (440). Of course, the latter is much more explosive.

Some systems breed more YAC than others, and someone moving in and out of a certain team could experience positive or negative repercussions. That Chargers design, with its quick-hitting plays, helped Gates tremendously.

Of course, players don’t always change. That’s why a guy like Wes Welker, in that explosive Denver system, was 50th in the NFL last year with 333 … and why I’ll never take him at his market price in a non-PPR game.

(Howard Smith, USA TODAY Sports)

What have you done for me lately?

Steve Gardner, senior fantasy editor: Despite the title of this article, trying to focus on a single stat in fantasy football is a fool’s quest. There are too many variables and it’s extremely difficult to find stats that are predictive. They tell you what happened, but rarely do they tell you why it happened or what to expect in the future.

But unlike in fantasy baseball, small sample sizes are good in fantasy football.

I look at a player’s output over the past few games and see if there’s any trend developing. More targets? More red zone touches? A steady increase in yards per attempt? If teams are having success with something, they’ll keep doing it until the other team can stop it.

Did any stat predict Nick Foles’ breakout last season? I can’t find one. But once Foles established himself as the Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback in Week 9, the offense became one of the NFL’s best. Foles led the NFL in yards per passing attempt (9.12), wide receiver DeSean Jackson had a career year (82 catches, 1,332 yards, 9 TD) and LeSean McCoy ended up with 2,146 total yards and 11 touchdowns.

So my preferred stat is “recent performance.” Whatever you’re looking for in a player — whether it’s to start him or pick him up on waivers — look at his stats over the past two or three games. It takes out some of the randomness of a single good or bad matchup, but still provides a decent snapshot of how a player is being used and how well he’s performing.

Fantasy football takeaway

Shaping your draft plans around a single statistic is an ill-advised move. Paying attention to important statistical markers is just part of the equation. Being aware of your options and remaining conscious of indicators is the best approach to take.