Is there no place for the running back high in the NFL draft? Analysis

View full sizeMark Arnold, Birmingham NewsThere's no doubt among NFL scouts and draftniks that Trent Richardson is easily the class of the incoming group of running backs. But in a league that covets the passing game, is it a smart move to spend a high draft pick on Richardson?

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Browns approach the NFL Draft on April 26 with many holes to fill -- most of them on a Swiss-cheese offense. They need a wide receiver. They need a right tackle. Their quarterback is a question mark.

Plus, a franchise built on the shoulders of some of the game's greatest running backs needs someone to carry the ball.

This is, after all, the Cleveland Browns, who have seen Hall of Famers Marion Motley, Jim Brown, Bobby Mitchell and Leroy Kelly and later Mike and Greg Pruitt, Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack power running games that mushed to touchdowns through the slop and slush of Northeast Ohio.

This year, with the fourth pick in the draft, the Browns are in a prime position to take the universally top-ranked college running back, powerful, 228-pound Trent Richardson from national champion Alabama. But ask former Browns coach Sam Rutigliano if Cleveland should take Richardson at No. 4, and he will tell you: No way.

Rutigliano coached the Browns from 1978-84, and his teams were known for their run-pass balance. But they still relied heavily on the legs of Mike Pruitt, who finished as the Browns' third all-time leading rusher. But with the exception of his first season, his teams ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in total rushing yards.

His point is that in today's NFL, teams don't ride franchise running backs to the Super Bowl like Chicago once did with Walter Payton, Washington did with John Riggins and Dallas did with Tony Dorsett and, later, Emmitt Smith.

NFL draft analysts generally praise Richardson for his quickness, power, agility and blocking and pass-catching ability -- ingredients craved by any offense, but especially a West Coast brand designed on high-percentage short passes and a double-threat running back.

With most draft projections have two quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III) and a left offensive tackle (Matt Kalil) going with the first three picks, the Browns are left with a difficult decision of whether to take Richardson in an NFL that relies less and less on franchise running backs for success.

Statistics and recent draft history reflect that declining reliance on the running game -- and a single franchise running back -- as a path to success:

• Thirteen of the league's top 20 rushers last season played for teams that failed to reach the playoffs. Last season's Super Bowl teams -- the New York Giants and New England -- had no running backs among the top 20.

• Last season, the Giants ranked last in rushing yards gained as a percentage of total offense, and the Patriots ranked fourth from the bottom.

• Only eight of the last 20 Super Bowl opponents had 1,000-yard rushers. Of that total, only two of the last 10 Super Bowl teams had 1,000-yard running backs.

• The NFL's four top-scoring teams last year -- Detroit, Green Bay, New England and New Orleans -- ranked among the lowest in yards gained on the ground as a percentage of their total offense.

• The Patriots, Giants, Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Saints -- who have accounted for eight of the last nine Super Bowl champions -- haven't had a league-leading rusher in the last 30 years.

For comparison, two of the best Super Bowl champions in the post AFL-NFL merger era -- the undefeated 1972 Dolphins with Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris and the one-loss 1985 Chicago Bears with Payton -- ranked near the top of the league for depending on the run, with about half of their yards coming on the ground.

Mike Ditka, coach of those '85 Bears, said this week that in today's wide-open offenses, the running back doesn't have the star power and prominence of the past.

"When I had Walter, we were committed to run the ball 30 to 40 times a game," Ditka said. "It's a whole different animal now."

As NFL offenses have evolved, the role of the fullback -- Jim Brown's position, for heaven's sake -- has been relegated to pure blocker. A series of rules changes since 1974 have made it harder for defensive backs to cover receivers while also providing more protection for quarterbacks.

Reliance on the running game has continued to slip. In 1970, rushing yards as share of total offense throughout the NFL was about 43 percent; by last season, that number was 34 percent.

"It was always develop the running game first and the passing game came along," said Mike Pruitt, a first-round choice (seventh overall) in the 1976 draft who finished as the Browns' third all-time leading rusher. "Now teams come out throwing."

For 60 percentto 70 percent of the plays in today's NFL game, Rutigliano said, defenses are facing offenses with a single running back and three or four wide receivers, or five receivers and no running back at all.

"The passing game is such a big part of it, even more so than it's ever been in the history of the league," said former Super Bowl-winning coach Jimmy Johnson, who was able to rebuild Dallas into a champion quickly by trading running back Herschel Walker to Minnesota for five players and six draft picks in 1989.

"On top of that," Johnson said, "the career of running backs is the shortest of any position on the team, so drafting one high can be risky."

Where have you gone Ricky Williams

View full sizeAP fileMore than a decade later, Mike Ditka can laugh about being "that goofy coach in New Orleans who gave up the whole draft for Ricky Williams."

The redefinition -- devaluation actually -- of the NFL running back has been reflected in the draft. Running backs were the NFL's draft-day darlings in the league's post-merger era from the mid-1970s through the mid-'80s. Everyone had to have one. Some were even desperate, you might say.

"You mean," Ditka said, "that goofy coach in New Orleans who gave up the whole draft for Ricky Williams?"

Ditka's self-ribbing describes his failed swipe at trying to recapture the Payton magic in the Big Easy in 1999. As coach of the Saints, he traded eight draft picks -- the team's entire draft that year, plus first- and third-rounders in 2000 -- to Washington for the chance to pick Williams No. 5 overall.

That blunder went down in the lore of the NFL Draft.

From 1977-86, five of the 10 overall No. 1 picks were running backs. But there has been just one -- Ki-Jana Carter by Cincinnati in 1995 -- in the last 25 drafts. In that same period, only six running backs have been taken at No. 4, where the Browns could add a seventh in Richardson. The most recent was Oakland's Darren McFadden.

From 1970-90, five drafts saw eight running backs nabbed in the first 32 picks; one year there were nine. Since then, the most running backs chosen among the first 32 players drafted in any one year was five.

Last year, there was just one: Alabama's Mark Ingram at No. 28.

Support for Richardson

Which brings it all back to the Browns and Richardson. If Browns president Mike Holmgren goes with him at No. 4, it wouldn't be the first time he has taken a running back from Alabama in the first round.

NFL draft database

Searchable database: find every player picked since the first NFL draft in 1936. Search by team, school, position or other options.

In 2000, Holmgren, then coach of the Seattle Seahawks, made Alabama's Shaun Alexander the No. 19 overall pick. Over the next eight seasons, Alexander ran for more than 9,400 yards, was named the league MVP in 2005 and led the Seahawks to a 2006 Super Bowl appearance -- all without an elite quarterback.

Asked this week if the Browns should take an Alabama back at No. 4, Alexander, now retired from football, said with a laugh, "I think it works for coach Holmgren."

Former Indianapolis Colts executive Bill Polian, who built Super Bowl teams with the Colts, Buffalo and Carolina, said he "absolutely would" go with Richardson at No. 4. Polian, who spent first-round picks on running backs Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai at Indianapolis, is sold on Richardson's vision, ability to break tackles and versatility. "But I especially like his toughness," he said, "and his desire to play the game."

Polian believes the fans and media are missing the point -- oversimplifying, actually.

"The key, at least in my perspective, is a misperception among the public and among writers," he said. "The quality, the conventional running backs, the difference-makers, are worth their weight in gold. They just don't have long careers. They just don't sustain it over long periods of time."

But successful teams, such as the Giants, Patriots and Packers, have figured out that the way to keep them healthy and hopefully longer is to rotate two running backs, not just ride one workhorse.

"They're still very good buys," Polian said, "even in the first round."

With Richardson likely there for the taking at No. 4, the Browns will have to decide whether the price is right.

Browns RB picks

Top 5 overall RBs

League trend since '70

vs. '72 Dolphins, '85 Bears

Running backs drafted by the Browns since 1970

The Cleveland Browns have selected 30 running backs in the NFL draft since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Here are those players:

Year

Round

Pick

Player

School

2011

4

124

Owen Marecic

Stanford

2010

2

59

Montario Hardesty

Tennessee

2009

6

195

James Davis

Clemson

2006

5

145

Jerome Harrison

Washington State

2006

6

180

Lawrence Vickers

Colorado

2004

7

208

Adimchinobe Echemandu

California

2003

4

115

Lee Suggs

Virginia Tech

2002

1

16

William Green

Boston College

2001

3

65

James Jackson

Miami (Fla.)

2000

3

63

Travis Prentice

Miami (Ohio)

1999

7

207

Madre Hill

Arkansas

1992

1

9

Tommy Vardell

Stanford

1990

2

45

Leroy Hoard

Michigan

1989

1

13

Eric Metcalf

Texas

1987

3

80

Tim Manoa

Penn State

1985

2

35

Greg Allen

Florida State

1984

10

280

Earnest Byner

East Carolina

1983

11

288

Boyce Green

Carson-Newman

1982

4

87

Dwight Walker

Nicholls State

1980

1

27

Charles White

USC

1978

3

67

Larry Collins

Texas A&M-Kingsville

1976

1

7

Mike Pruitt

Purdue

1975

6

154

Henry Hynoski

Temple

1975

9

213

Larry Poole

Kent State

1974

6

146

Billy Pritchett

West Texas A&M

1974

14

352

Bob Hunt

Heidelberg

1973

2

30

Greg Pruitt

Oklahoma

1972

8

201

Hugh McKinnis

Arizona State

1972

9

230

Billy Lefear

Henderson State

1970

5

125

Steve Engel

Colorado

Source: NFL and The Plain Dealer

Running backs taken drafted No. 5 or higher

The Cleveland Browns have the fourth pick in the 2012 NFL draft. Just 32 times since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 has a running back been chosen in the top five. Here are those players:

Year

Pick

Player

Team

School

2008

4

Darren McFadden

Raiders

Arkansas

2006

2

Reggie Bush

Saints

USC

2005

2

Ronnie Brown

Dolphins

Auburn

2005

4

Cedric Benson

Bears

Texas

2005

5

Cadillac Williams

Buccaneers

Auburn

2001

5

LaDainian Tomlinson

Chargers

Texas Christian

2000

5

Jamal Lewis

Ravens

Tennessee

1999

4

Edgerrin James

Colts

Miami (Fla.)

1999

5

Ricky Williams

Saints

Texas

1998

5

Curtis Enis

Bears

Penn State

1995

1

Ki-Jana Carter

Bengals

Penn State

1994

2

Marshall Faulk

Colts

San Diego State

1993

3

Garrison Hearst

Cardinals

Georgia

1990

2

Blair Thomas

Jets

Penn State

1989

3

Barry Sanders

Lions

Oklahoma State

1987

3

Alonzo Highsmith

Oilers

Miami (Fla.)

1987

4

Brent Fullwood

Packers

Auburn

1986

1

Bo Jackson

Buccaneers

Auburn

1983

2

Eric Dickerson

Rams

SMU

1983

3

Curt Warner

Seahawks

Penn State

1981

1

George Rogers

Saints

South Carolina

1981

3

Freeman McNeil

Jets

UCLA

1980

1

Billy Sims

Lions

Oklahoma

1980

5

Curtis Dickey

Colts

Texas A&M

1978

1

Earl Campbell

Oilers

Texas

1978

5

Terry Miller

Bills

Oklahoma State

1977

1

Ricky Bell

Buccaneers

USC

1977

2

Tony Dorsett

Cowboys

Pittsburgh

1976

3

Chuck Muncie

Saints

California

1976

4

Joe Washington

Chargers

Oklahoma

1975

4

Walter Payton

Bears

Jackson State

1974

2

Bo Matthews

Chargers

Colorado

Source: NFL and The Plain Dealer

Depending on the run

NFL teams gradually have been depending less on the run. This chart shows the percentage of offensive yards obtained through rushing for each Super Bowl team and the Browns since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

Year

Browns

Super Bowl Winner

Super Bowl Loser

1970

37.9%

Colts

32.3%

Cowboys

51.7%

1971

40.4%

Cowboys

44.7%

Dolphins

55.1%

1972

48.3%

Dolphins

58.8%

Redskins

48.7%

1973

58.9%

Dolphins

61.4%

Vikings

53.8%

1974

52.7%

Steelers

55.2%

Vikings

40.3%

1975

48.6%

Steelers

53.9%

Cowboys

48.4%

1976

50.5%

Raiders

44.0%

Vikings

41.2%

1977

50.3%

Cowboys

49.2%

Broncos

52.3%

1978

46.5%

Steelers

46.0%

Cowboys

46.7%

1979

39.5%

Steelers

41.6%

Rams

47.9%

1980

29.9%

Raiders

42.5%

Eagles

36.1%

1981

32.6%

49ers

35.4%

Bengals

33.1%

1982

32.1%

Redskins

38.2%

Dolphins

50.6%

1983

34.4%

Raiders

39.4%

Redskins

42.8%

1984

35.1%

49ers

38.7%

Dolphins

27.7%

1985

46.4%

Bears

47.3%

Patriots

42.4%

1986

30.6%

Giants

41.7%

Broncos

32.2%

1987

33.6%

Redskins

37.6%

Broncos

35.0%

1988

31.4%

49ers

42.8%

Bengals

44.7%

1989

31.9%

49ers

31.4%

Broncos

41.1%

1990

27.9%

Giants

42.6%

Bills

39.4%

1991

29.2%

Redskins

35.7%

Bills

38.1%

1992

35.8%

Cowboys

37.8%

Bills

41.3%

1993

35.9%

Cowboys

38.5%

Bills

36.9%

1994

34.3%

49ers

31.3%

Chargers

35.5%

1995

29.2%

Cowboys

37.8%

Steelers

32.1%

1996

No team

Packers

33.2%

Patriots

27.3%

1997

No team

Broncos

40.5%

Packers

34.0%

1998

No team

Broncos

40.5%

Falcons

38.3%

1999

30.6%

Rams

32.1%

Titans

34.2%

2000

30.7%

Ravens

43.9%

Giants

37.4%

2001

32.5%

Patriots

36.7%

Rams

30.3%

2002

32.1%

Buccaneers

31.1%

Raiders

28.3%

2003

37.1%

Patriots

31.9%

Panthers

40.7%

2004

37.0%

Patriots

37.3%

Eagles

29.2%

2005

33.0%

Steelers

43.2%

Seahawks

41.5%

2006

31.5%

Colts

29.0%

Bears

36.9%

2007

33.7%

Giants

40.5%

Patriots

28.1%

2008

40.3%

Steelers

33.9%

Cardinals

20.1%

2009

50.1%

Saints

32.6%

Colts

22.3%

2010

35.5%

Packers

28.0%

Steelers

34.8%

2011

33.1%

Giants

23.2%

Patriots

25.8%

2011 vs. the '72 Dolphins and '85 Bears

The 2011 champion New York Giants ranked last in the NFL for the percentage of their yards gained on the ground. This is a reversal from two of the greatest teams in the post-AFL-NFL merger era.

Follow Us

cleveland.com is powered by Plain Dealer Publishing Co. and Northeast Ohio Media Group. All rights reserved (About Us).The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Northeast Ohio Media Group LLC.