Testing of the boring samples indicated there are three weak
spots in the dam. Tetra Tech, an engineering and architecture
service hired by the county, and the DSOD are still conducting
tests on more samples.

"We located a couple of weak spots on the east side of the dam
near the road into Camp Switzerland," explained Jim Oravets,
Special Districts' division manager of engineering. "The weak spots
are due to unclassified materials used in the original dam
construction. This material would tend to liquefy during a
significant seismic event resulting in a loss of strength.

"The result of the liquefaction," he continued, "is that the
crest of the dam may tend to slough off or deform above the weak
spots. The severity of this deformation would depend on the size of
the earthquake and how much deformation occurred. It would probably
take an earthquake of 6 magnitude to liquefy the weak spots."

Oravets said the weak spots are "one fairly good sized and two
small" spots. When asked how big the weak spots are, Oravets said,
"It is impossible to know the full extent. In cross section, the
weak spots take up less than 5 percent of the dam mass."

Snelgrove stated there are three areas that could be affected if
the dam failed and the lake's full capacity was released. She said,
"Camp Switzerland, Pilot Rock, and down to the facilities at Lake
Silverwood. Those are the only three areas that are populated that
would have damage if the lake were to release its full
capacity."

MAC board member Connie Bracher asked what would happen if the
lake were to lose its full capacity and how deep would it be when
it reached Silverwood Lake.

Charles Rangel, Supervisor Rutherford's field representative,
explained that the DSOD requires an inundation map of every dam and
body of water in the state. "If there's a significant seismic event
we can get to safety. Fortunately, the areas aren't too
populated."

Oravets said that Rich Tocher, Tetra Tech's vice president of
engineering and architecture services, and his crew have created an
inundation map that shows the time and the depth and volume of
water if there was complete failure at the Lake Gregory Dam.

"To get to Silverwood Lake, it would be 15 feet deep in 13
minutes," he said. "At Camp Switzerland, the impact would be very
minor there. The depth of the water just past Camp Switzerland
would be 29 feet with a full breach of the dam-with complete
failure. It would take six minutes to get to Pilot Rock and would
be 12 feet deep."

Oravets explained that the water wouldn't be that deep
throughout the wave that would be released. He said the numbers
indicate how deep it would be at its deepest point. He also said at
one point the wave could be traveling at 30 miles per hour.

WARNING SYSTEM

Snelgrove announced to the group at the meeting that an
emergency action plan (EAP) has been developed, which was one of
the requirements made by the DSOD to complete before the spillway
boards could be replaced in the dam.

"What you'll notice on the EAP is there are three levels of
emergency notification; level one is an unusual and slow developing
issue; level two would be a potential dam failure rapidly
developing; level three means dam failure is imminent or is in
progress," Snelgrove said.

Snelgrove explained that even though it would take 13 minutes to
reach Lake Silverwood, people could have more than that amount of
time to get to safety because they would be notified that dam
failure was possible, allowing them to prepare-unless complete dam
failure happened quickly.

PROBLEMS, TESTS AND SOLUTIONS

Tocher said they made the boring sites into observation wells so
they could monitor the water level inside the dam. He also said
there are a lot of trees around the dam and that isn't good for it.
The roots can create a path in the dam, and when the tree dies it
becomes an open pipe through the dam.

"Another thing we have is seepage between the base of the dam
and the natural slope of the ground, and we would have to collect
that," Tocher said. "We would put a gravel drain in so if some of
the material of the dam came piping through there would be a gravel
drain that would stop the material from moving and it would collect
the water and run down to Huston Creek. The solution with the trees
is to remove them and compact the holes."

Tocher said another solution would be to create a buttress. "We
would use large rocks and boulders on the downstream face and we'd
come about halfway up the dam, flatten the slope and rise up to
hold it in place."

"We're hoping we don't have to go that far," Oravets
commented.

When asked what kind of timeline there would be with the
analysis of the remaining core samples and conducting a meeting
with the DSOD to make some sort of decision on the solution, Tocher
said it would probably be in the next four to six weeks.

"I met with the head of the DSOD a couple of weeks ago and he's
very cognizant about what the issues are and what we need to do,"
Tocher said.

"They have not told us yet it will be that long before we could
put the boards in," Snelgrove pointed out. "Now that they have all
of the samples and are beginning their analysis, Keith and I will
be speaking to them Monday (May 2)."

Snelgrove also said the DSOD has been timely is responding to
their questions.

"When you're dealing with a state entity, it's unprecedented how
quickly we've done this," Oravets noted. "I know you anxiously want
to get the boards in, and I deal with them routinely, and I'm
really happy. I feel the DSOD has gone extremely out of their way
in dealing with this community."

The next question was who would finance the repairs? Oravets
said it would probably be financed by a number of different
entities. He said this type of work is conducive to grant
funding.

"Would one source we hope we could rely on be FEMA (Federal
Emergency Management Agency)?" Rangel asked.

"Absolutely," replied Oravets. "The Department of Water
Resources, which is the parent company of the DSOD, is also a very
good source for grant money. One of the big qualifiers with grant
funding is it has to come as some sort of a compliance order. The
thing that drives funding of these types of projects is when a
regulatory agency puts a mandate in. We're going to have to wait,
and it will probably only be four to six weeks, to see what the
DSOD says."

Oravets said the bore holes reveal how much water is moving
through the dam and the more data that is collected from those
instruments, providing the data is good, the higher the comfort
level the DSOD will have.

"We have a better handle on the dam now than anyone probably has
since 1936," Oravets concluded.