Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Nanos Poll: 0.5 Conservative Lead (down 5.9)

So, Nanos Research has come along with a new poll and boy howdy it's an interesting one.Nanos has been out of the federal polling game for the summer (lazy buggers) so our last point of comparison is their May 29 to June 3 poll. Since then, the Conservatives have lost 2.3 points and now stand at 33.3%. The Liberals, meanwhile, have gained more than the margin of error and are up 3.6 points to 32.8%. In statistical land, that is a virtual tie. Or a six point gap. But nevertheless, it helps confirm EKOS's findings from last week. It's on!

The New Democrats are way down, however, dropping 5.1 points to 15.6%. The Bloc Québécois is at 12.1% (gaining more than they did in Quebec itself, oddly) while the Greens are up 1.1 to 6.2%. Remember that Nanos doesn't prompt, which is one of the reasons we get low Green numbers from them.

The biggest news of this poll has to be Ontario, where the Liberals have gained 10.8 points and now stand at 43.2%. It's a little high, but the trend is good for Michael Ignatieff. The Conservatives are down seven points to 36.2% while the NDP is down 5.9 points to a very dangerous 13.2%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up 2.1 points to 40.7% while the Liberals are up 2.7 points to 27.3%. Both parties would be happy with those results. The Conservatives are down 3.7 points to 15.6% and the NDP is down three points to 10.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down 9.9 points to 29.4% and the Liberals are up 8.1 points to 29.4%. The NDP is down two points to 25.6% and the Greens are up 3.7 points to 15.5%. Odd numbers.

Atlantic Canada is fun. There, the Tories are up 11 points to 45.3% while the Liberals are at 38.7%. That is a little hard to believe, but helps off-set the BC result. The NDP is down 12 points to 13.6%, while the Bloc is at 1.2%. Huh? Yeah, the Bloc is at 1.2% in Atlantic Canada. I'm going to say that's a typo, but if you add up all the numbers in Atlantic Canada you get to 100%, so perhaps some jokester in Newfoundland (I know who you are) said they were voting Bloc.

Nanos infuriatingly combines Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba into one mega region, meaning I can't use the numbers in my projection. But there the Conservatives are at 52.8%, up 11, while the Liberals are down six to 23.9% and the NDP is down two to 22%.

Because of the Mega Prairies, I have to use the site's current projection for Alberta and the Prairies to get a seat projection here. Using those numbers, the Conservatives win 64 seats in the West and North, 38 in Ontario, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and 5 in Quebec for a total of 119.

The Liberals win 60 seats in Ontario, 19 in Atlantic Canada, 18 in the West and North, and 17 in Quebec for a total of 114.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 8 in Ontario, and one apiece in Quebec and Atlantic Canada for a total of 23.

Really bad numbers here for the NDP, relatively great numbers for the Liberals. The Tories still have the edge, but no one believes they could govern very long with a plurality of five. This poll is just one poll, but it does give a little more weight to the close polls we've seen lately from EKOS and Harris-Decima. It should make for an interesting September.

What if all of the Conservative gains out west were all in Alberta, where they can only increase seat count by 1 at most? How would that change the numbers? (Or more likely, if the change was more like the ekos poll?)

It would not help much, as the Liberals did not do well in the West in the EKOS poll. I don't have the numbers with me, but it would probably mean fewer Tory and Liberal seats and more NDP seats, so maybe not much different.

I detect a trend. The libs are on a roll, and according to Nanos its a cumulative thing. The polarizing issue is the long gun registry which the libs are capitalizing on. The NDP is losing support and up to half their seats in Ontario where it is popular, so that's why some rural NDP MPs are switching their vote. I think with the maritime anomaly and factoring in Alberta distortion in the Al/Sask/Man results, the poll actually masks how bad the tory result is.

He said that Ignatieff's personal numbers were completely unchanged by the summer tour and are still horrid.

So what happens when the LPC numbers go down ?

Does it spark a fresh round of recriminations ? Do the Liberals keep their new found discipline or implode ?

Key test will be 4 by-elections this fall.

(BTW i'm not all that interested in dead of summer polling. People are so tuned out or on vacation. Last year the Liberals were also tied at this time and then the Tories shot up once people tuned in.)

eric rw - agree for the most part but that anomaly in the Atlantic should be balanced against the strong Lib numbers in BC. I don't think either are real, but the two cancel each other out nationally; so Nik's overall numbers are probably pretty close to the truth.

That said this is the 3rd poll by three different companies over the past week showing a dead heat between the CPC and the LPC, with the NDP taking a hit. Pretty safe to assume that an election held right now would mirror these results. And yes this is not good news for the CPC or NDP right now.

That might have something to do with Jacques Parizeau's comments from the other decade that any Francophones living outside of an independent Quebec would be 'dead ducks'.

It is pretty much acknowledged by Francophones that Quebec separation would result in Canada abandoning official bilingualism & protection of the French language & culture; and have no love for pequists for this very reason.

Based on the support demonstrated by this poll, does anyone want to start the Bloc Québécois de la Terre-Neuve? A few proposed planks of the platform:

- Newfoundland would merge into a sovereign Québec. Newfoundland has been borrowing Labrador rent-free from Québec since 1927. It is only fair that Labrador finally be returned to Québec, with the rest of Newfoundland as interest.- Solve the Chuchill Falls dispute. With Newfoundland dissolved into Quebec, this dispute disappears. A win-win situation for everyone.- Improve knowledge of French in Newfoundland. Right now, Newfoundland has the fewest number of mother tongue French-speakers of any Canadian province, at less than 0.5% of the population. By absorbing Newfoundland into Québec, the new nation will have an almost 80% francophone population, an immediate vast improvement.- More cod. A sovereign Québec would result in an increase in the number of cod off the coast of Newfoundland. Our slogan would be "More Morue".

Regarding absorption, that was tried with the short lived province of Canada.

Its probably a last ditch solution to preventing Quebec seperation.

It would work by throwing a bunch of Ontario into Quebec and then mandating that the national assembly (which would then be called the provincial legislature located in Kingston) be 50% English and 50% French.

The hilarious gridlock and acrimony would prevent any movement towards independence.

I have the oddest memory that in fact they did run a couple of candidates years ago in that part of New Brunswick ? Could be 15 or more years back. I also thought they actually got one elected. This all took place probably well before the referendum.

If you look closely at the year over year numbers in the Nanos poll you may observe that the Conservative numbers are underestimated by as much as 5 or 6 percentage points and the Liberals overestimated by roughly the same amount until just before polling day. Nanos's polls are all about soothing the nerves of the Liberal party, or possibly wishful thinking, or perhaps make-believe, that too is a possibility--take your pick.

"No sponsorship scandal here folks. That's according to early leaks (various ministries already have parts of the report.)"

You're WELCOME!!! Now, how about being an ace and getting this Prime Minister to treat every major issue in the House as a confidence vote. After all, you know how I'm itching for an election -- and looking for the first and EARLIEST opportunity to scratch.

"Or do you think they might try and make the NDP be the ones to do it now ?"

Not being in the loop -- who knows...

I can only tell you how I would play it: if the NDP does not do a 180 on a whipped vote on the long-gun registry, I would go for the one, two punch. Tar and feather the urban NDP MPs with some of their rural colleagues' vote and then go aggressive on sinking the government within a month or so -- thereby forcing Jack and the New Democrats to prop up Harper (again) to save their collective hides from the disagreeable prospect of an election where a large seat loss is probable for them given their planned conduct.

Shadow said...Actually Ira Harper's personal numbers are up in the latest Nanos poll.

In fact given the margin of error, Harper's personal numbers are statistically unchanged.

However that's good news / bad news for the PM. Though his personal numbers are steady and well above his rivals, the party is still in a statistical tie with the Liberals - and that's confirmed by three different pollsters now. If that part isn't troubling for him, it should be. If I were the PM I would concentrate on doing something to change that particular dynamic.

Earl that article by Travers is ridiculous. He's just repeating NDP talking points. A couple of rural NDP MPs have jumped on the Breitkreuz remarks as a thin fig leaf to cover their flip flop on the registry.

More principled NDP members like Nathan Cullen have ignored the remarks. They are completely irrelevent and have had ZERO effect on the registry vote.

T of KW you're incorrect.

Harper is up 4.1 points on the leadership index score. The MOE is 3.3 for the total leadership score.

On the individual indexes the jump is less than the MOE but you don't total them all up for the final score (ie. its not +-9.9 because the error cancels each other out.)

I hope Albertans also recognise that buying those votes is probably the only way the CPC is going to win a majority.

I further hope that this government never funds a sports arean again. There is literally one example in all of North America of a publicly funded sports venue producing a positive return for the government that funded it: the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis.

So how well is giving Quebec City $200 million to build a new hockey arena going to fly out West?

for Quebec? probably not that good.... but then given the other money involved, 200 mill is a pittance.

For hockey in Canada? for another Canadian hockey team? That is going to fly better.

And despite the media, the quebec arena isn't the only piece of infrastructure being floated.

There is a possibility of a 450million multipurpose facility in Regina with the local football team being the major lessee.

Stimulus money went to countless projects of that type. Not to mention several other systems of grants (of which my local arena in a town of 2000 was a recipient).

An odd question you seem to be trying to spin to damage the government and peoples feelings about Quebec there Morakon.

Might as well ask why Saskatchewan gets transfers from the federal government to run some of its health programs?? Its a stupid question in a vacuum without the understanding that everyone else seems to get a bunch too.

I learned something once from one of my favorite teachers. Fair and Equal are not the same thing.... and people who speak to one or the other... quite often have the two confused.

Come on Shadow. Have you ever heard of anyone being able to best Marcel Aubut. That guy is one tough cookie. The man always ends up a winner in any transaction.

Next to Bettman, Aubut will also call the tune on an NHL team returning to Quebec City. If it's a win for Marcel -- it'll be a win for a team.

As for the political upside: there won't be any. The Bloc is once again finding new favour in the region. My prediction: Josée has a 50-50 chance of keeping her seat; Blaney, Petit and Boucher are gone; only Gourde still looks solid in my book -- and the Conservative ally, André Arthur is already history as we speak. Look for the Bloc to pick up his riding.

Hmm. I guess knowing my EI Premiums ( yes it's a tax ) are going to rise every Jan 1 for the forseeable future I have a problem spending tax dollars on arenas/stadiums to help out millionaire owners save a couple hundred million. There are a lot of places that are going to be looking for the same kind of cash.

"They're already going to give somewhere between $80-100 million for that arena in Sask. "

No announcement to that effect has been made.

However when asked about that on Thursday in Saskatchewan, Harper did say that if the Quebec arena was funded the federal government would have to take a look at funding others like the Regina multipurpose facility or the Edmonton arena.

"I didn't know some of you guys were in favour of more stimulus."

I am not.. I was pointing out that in an attack on Quebec for funding they might (or might not) receive; that funding for such projects has gone to many places in the last 2 years, not to mention all the programs and grant monies on top of the stimulus. That should not be taken as a go ahead to spend more money, only that in my opinion Quebec didn't deserve the tarnish of this particular attack.

EI premiums had been frozen for 2 years. I am not real enthused about the mandatoriness of the program except that forcing people to actually pay specific dollars for this specific program should keep them off the welfare dole when they find themselves jobless and not smart enough to have protected themselves. If people took responsibility for themselves we wouldn't need (or want) a nannystate.

Thanks Tof KW. As for the quebec city arena, as I said last night before Chantal(I couldnt get my comment through-password problems)Ebert, the tories are dead in Q and they are in a lose-lose situation. If they dont fork over, they lose the seats, and if they do, SaskAlbMan will want $ for their arenas they are building and their whole fiscal responsiblilty hypocrisy is exposed. By the way, the Royal Conservatory in TO (where there are no seats to win) is still waiting for a $12mil topup from the feds for their $160 mil reno, and the tories are prepared to spend $200 mil for a hockey rink in Q and possibly $$$ms more for other arenas? I'm thinking damage control trumps ideology. I'm smelling desperation

JP Blackburn has already hinted at it actually and that is to make private sector involvement a precondition of funding.

Best course of action is to take Bernier up on his "time out".

1) Deny current funding request as presently structured but leave door open to revisit issue.

(Satisfies base.)

2) Study precedents, look at what money is available, and communicate clear rules and criteria for getting the money including the need for private sector involvement. Cap federal share at 30% funding (not 45% Charest wants) but offer low interest long term loans to munis to cover the difference.

(Satisfies media.)

3) If Quebec City's satisfies all the conditions then give them the money.

The real toxic thing here is the involvement of Pierre Karl Peladeu (sp)

This business with Fox North is resonating with the public in the worst possible way.

75.000 signatures against it and climbing every hour indicates the Canadian public does NOT want anything approaching Fox News USA, especially if they are expected to pay for it through their cable fees.

In my case if they do get that license then I will cancel my cable, PERIOD !!

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