GOP's 2014 Senate prospects look rosy

When it comes to the 2014 Senate landscape, Republicans and Democrats might agree on one thing: The map favors the GOP.

Democrats have to defend 20 of the 34 seats in play next November. Republicans need to net six seats to win control of the upper chamber and their path to the majority runs through red states. What's more, there are seven Democratic seats up in states where President Barack Obama lost to Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012 – six of them by double digits – and the party doesn't yet have candidates for three of them: South Dakota, Montana and West Virginia.

But can too much of a good thing be bad for Republicans?

The “map” described exists on paper. A multi-dimensional version would reveal the dangers of crowded GOP primaries and potentially damaging policy debates on Capitol Hill. While hopes are high, Republicans know there are plenty of potential pitfalls along the road to the majority, including the quality of candidates and their campaigns, and how they respond to attacks. As one GOP aide put it to RealClearPolitics: “Never underestimate our ability to screw things up. … We can't take anything for granted.”

Democrats draw comparisons to 2012, when the party faced an uphill climb to keep the majority but wound up gaining two additional seats – they are hoping for a repeat.

Republican primary battles last year produced accident-prone candidates such as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, who breathed life into Democrat opponents who had been all but left for dead. GOP candidates also fell in states like Montana and North Dakota, where Romney beat Obama by double digits, because of poorly run campaigns.

The scenario for next year is slightly different. It's a midterm, where turnout is lower and the electorate is older and whiter than in general election years, and the president's party is typically held accountable for the nation's woes. In addition, ill-chosen GOP contenders gained so much negative national attention last time that safeguards against repeating the same mistakes have been practically built in to the recruitment of candidates.

Conservative outside groups that tend to cause a stir say they will try to be more unified in their backing of challengers. “We don't want to split our support. Todd Akin squeaked by in his primary because Tea Party groups were divided, [leading to a] train wreck,” said president of the advocacy nonprofit FreedomWorks Matt Kibbe.

And while Democrats overcame tough odds last cycle, many incumbents elected in the Obama wave of 2008 are being put to the test in the midterms. In particular, the spotlight is on red states such as Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, along with a purple one (North Carolina) that Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012.

Still, even in places where Republicans should be strong, easy sledding isn't guaranteed.

Organizations such as Kibbe's plan to get involved in primaries and challenges to GOP incumbents, and are backing threats from Sens. Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Marco Rubio to shut down the government if Obamacare is not defunded. This idea is unpopular among most rank-and-file Republicans, but still poses a challenge for congressional leaders hoping to show governing strength ahead of major budget and debt-ceiling battles coming in the fall.

In Georgia, where Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is retiring, seven candidates are vying from the GOP nomination, which has fueled fear of another Akin-like contender emerging. Reps. Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey and Jack Kingston are running, along with former Secretary of State Karen Handel. Gingrey has already gotten into some trouble for defending Akin's “legitimate rape” comments as “partly right.” Broun often calls Obama a socialist and had said evolution is a lie “straight from the pit of hell.” Kingston is a longtime lawmaker who sits on the Appropriations Committee, but has recently joined his rivals on House votes in order to boost his conservative credentials.

Democrats have coalesced around Michelle Nunn – who runs a nonprofit founded by George H.W. Bush and is the daughter of influential former Sen. Sam Nunn – and are promoting her as a moderate in a state whose slowly changing demographics could benefit Democrats.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces a primary challenge from self-funder and Tea Party advocate Matt Bevin. While the challenger faces long odds, his bid might interfere with McConnell's focus on the general election and helping his party win enough seats to make him majority leader.

Several candidates have lined up to challenge South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, announced a bid in Wyoming to take on GOP Sen. Mike Enzi, sparking controversy and catching the conservative incumbent by surprise. Contested primaries are also brewing in North Carolina, Iowa and Alaska, and Republicans expect Democrats to prop up the weakest GOP candidate in some of these races to boost the chances of their own contender, a la Claire McCaskill in Missouri last cycle.

North Carolina figures to be an interesting test for Republicans. In polls, Sen. Kay Hagan leads the two Republicans vying for the nomination. Democrats believe action in the GOP-led state legislature will benefit the freshman senator, pointing to bills signed by Republican Gov. Pat McCrory that include restrictions on abortion clinics and federal insurance coverage.

Democrats also hope to capitalize on and expand Obama's turnout operation in North Carolina, where the president held his nominating convention and hope to mobilize African-American, urban and young voters. Republicans, though, see promise in the Tar Heel State: Obama won it by just 14,000 votes in 2008, and Romney won it by 97,000 votes four years later.

The GOP's map “is shrinking by not putting a blue or purple state in play,” asserts Justin Barasky, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who points to North Carolina, Virginia and Michigan as examples. “While they are worrying about their right flank, Democrats are building cash advantages and infrastructure.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee's policy is to back incumbents running for re-election, but it does not get involved in primaries for open seats. Operatives there believe that many of the key races that could determine the balance of power in the upper chamber will mostly be a referendum on the Democratic candidate and Obama's policies.

In Arkansas, Republicans have coalesced behind freshman Rep. Tom Cotton's challenge to Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. Their central attack against Pryor (and Democratic incumbents Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Begich of Alaska and Hagan of North Carolina) rests on the incumbents' support of the Affordable Care Act. “These guys now have a record to defend,” said the GOP aide, noting that the administration's delay of the individual mandate for businesses complicates the chances of Democrats who backed the law.

Democrats have a potentially bruising primary fight of their own in Hawaii where Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is challenging Sen. Brian Schatz, even though they are expected to still keep the seat. The party has had some trouble fielding candidates in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota, though they insist they will have contenders there, and Republicans see these states as prime pickup opportunities, in addition to Arkansas. Their goal, then, is to take two of the 14 remaining Democratic states. But that assumes they successfully defend all of their own.

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a congressional

reporter for RealClearPolitics. This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.

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