February 25, 2005

Daydream

I wasn’t one of those hoping against hope that Dick Cheney would step down and Condoleeza Rice would take his place before the last election. And, I am not one of those that thinks she has a shot in ‘08. But, lately, I can’t help fantisizing that Cheney will step down (though I love me some Cheney) and that Bush will replace him with Condi. It’s more of a want for Bush (and Condi) to make history in this way. The first black person, the first woman, the first single person in some time to hold the office of Vice President. It would break through conceptions on what a president or vice-president must be. That’s something that makes me smile every time I think about it.

I’m with Dick Morris on this one:
If Condi runs, she wins. If she doesn’t, it’s President Hillary.
Run, Condi, Run.

Posted by: Jay at February 25, 2005 at 1:28 pm

Dreams are all they are. Condi has not won a race for dog catcher, let alone another elected office. She is single and sad to say there are a lot of rumors and whispers about her choice in partners. Before annoiting her, let us see how she can take a punch. And, yes, she is pro abortion. That still matters a lot in certain states like oh Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina:
(http://www.nationalreview.com/flashback/nordlinger200411170605.asp)
With positions on social issues well outside the red state Christian mainstream of the Republican party, with no geogrpahic base, and with the rumor mill flying, it will be tough for Condi to emerge from the primaries.

Posted by: Von Bek at February 25, 2005 at 1:56 pm

Von Bek, that’s exactly my point. Condi would not win in ‘08. That’s why Bush choosing her for VP would be so incredible. I totally disagree, Jay, that it’s Condi or Hillary.

I think that there’s a good chance that Cheney will step down and Bush will pick a new VP. I think that the Republicans will want an incumbent going into the ‘08 election rather than completely wide open race. Otherwise, this will be the first time since ‘52 (Harry Truman- Alben Barkley) that the party holding the White House didn’t send out either the sitting president or the sitting vice president.
I also think that Condi would be as good a choice as anyone and if she’s the incumbent VP I think she will emerge from the GOP primaries as the nominee. As for electibility, she has some of the disadvantages Von Bek mentions but very likely has significant crossover appeal to moderate Democrats, independents and perhaps some African Americans.

Posted by: bobm at February 25, 2005 at 2:07 pm

Cheney’s not stepping down.
I don’t think Condi’s lack of elected office will matter that much. She’s already Sec of State and the president’s most trusted advisor. That’s tenfold more experience for the top job than a junior senator from NC could wish for. Two-term Eisenhower never held elected office prior to his run. Neither has the current governor of CA.
She may have a tough shot in the primary but there are plenty of more socially liberal Republicans in bigger states like NY or CA. I’m not sure how the primaries work, but wouldn’t that help balance things out for her?
Personally, I’d love to see a Condi Rice/Sam Brownback ticket in 2008.

Posted by: Peter at February 25, 2005 at 2:19 pm

And:
It’s also worth considering that nobody–outside of our insultated political world–knew Condi Rice as a politician before she was Secretary of State. Most people don’t read The Drudge Report. Or watch CSPAN. So, for the people who think she can’t win: I think you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Ok…how many presidents have been elected without winning any type of election ?
Well you had Washington, Ike, Grant and Taylor. They were all war heroes. Condi is not. And Peter, Ike’s popularity crossed party lines. He was the most popular general of the most popular war in American history. Condi has nothing on him.
But let us look at the non warheroes who get to the White House without wining elections before: Taft and Hoover, both Cabinet officers who were the heirs apparent to popular presidents. Both became unpopular quickly and both got tossed out badly. Bush is nowhere near as popular as Silent Cal and TR were.
Confirmation hearings, much like the Senate, are not the best place to prepare for a presidential campaign.

Posted by: Von Bek at February 25, 2005 at 3:13 pm

It’s also worth considering that nobody–outside of our insultated political world–knew Condi Rice as a politician before she was Secretary of State.
Dorian, you must mean Security Advisor, because everybody knew her right after 9/11.
I don’t think it has to be either Condi or Hilary, and I think Condi has very little chance. It’s not just ‘her party’ that would defeat her: it’s regular conservative Americans, who don’t care much about partisan politics.

Ivan–
I mean Secretary of State…If you go out on the streets of New York City and ask 15 random people who Condi Rice is, I think you will be very surprised. This–politics–is what we’re interested in. A lot of people have different interests.

Dorian,
I knew about Condi before I was interested in politics. But if you have any links to any data that show how well known (or poorly known) she is, I’d be curious to look at it. My impression is that she’s been all over TV, well before she was SoS.

I told someone at the Protest Warrior meeting it’s a shame Condi isn’t Jewish. Then it would be perfect. “Do you think the American public is ready for a black Jewish female single Republican president?”
. . . I wonder if she is a member of any Indian tribes. . . .

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