Financial and commodity markets analytics

The gold price has finally broken out of its tight trading range and with predictions that the US dollar bull run may be over, The precious metal is poised to push higher.

Earlier in the year one of the world’s biggest fund managers predicted that a recession would hit the US around 2020 and as the situation became evident, the US dollar would begin to decline, paving the way for gold’s rally.

"I think we are in a pre-bubble stage that could go into a bubble stage. The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, maybe 70 percent, said Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, from Bridgewater Associates.

Some analysts however, predict the demise of the US dollar much sooner, which in their words would be a strong catalyst for the gold price, and give this as a reason for investors to gains some exposure to gold.

“We believe that the gold market bottomed in August, and that exposure to precious metals is a credible strategy to mitigate risk of a dollar collapse,” said John Hathaway, chairman of Tocqueville Management Corp. and fund manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund.

In regards to the timing of the US dollar’s collapse, Mr Hathaway disagrees with Ray Dalio from Bridgewater and believes it will happen in the not too distant future.

“We disagree; we believe that it could happen sooner,” Mr Hathaway said.

“Dalio’s reasoning is the same as ours. We agree that a general loss of confidence in the U.S. currency is credible risk,” he added.

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