29Aug16

Zawahiri says jihadists should prepare for guerrilla war in Iraq

As Sahab, al Qaeda's propaganda arm, released the third episode of Ayman al
Zawahiri's "Brief Messages to a Victorious Ummah" series on Aug. 25. The
latest installment is subtitled "Fear Allah in Iraq." The al Qaeda leader clearly
expects the Islamic State to continue to lose ground, arguing that the Sunnis
of Iraq should "reorganize themselves" for a "protracted guerrilla war to
defeat the neo-Safavid [Iranian]-Crusader occupation of their regions as they
did before."

Zawahiri critiques the Islamic State's approach to waging jihad in Iraq in his
brief message, which is just over four minutes long. His arguments further
highlight how al Qaeda and the Islamic State have evolved very different
strategies for waging jihad. Whereas al Qaeda wants to be viewed as a
popular revolutionary force, serving the interests of Muslims, the Islamic State
deliberately markets itself as a top-down authoritarian regime that seeks to
overtly impose its will on the populace. Al Qaeda and the Islamic State share
the same long-term goal, as they both want to resurrect an Islamic caliphate.
But they diverge on the steps that should be taken to achieve this goal.

Al Qaeda's senior leaders think that the Islamic State's methodology for
waging jihad alienates the Muslim population and therefore makes it easier for
the Sunni jihadists' enemies to defeat them.

Zawahiri lays out a way forward for the jihadists in Iraq should the Islamic
State's caliphate continue to crumble.

Zawahiri says the jihadists in Iraq "must review their prior experiences to save
them from the mistakes that led to their separation" from the Muslim
community. These mistakes caused the jihadists to fall into "the abyss of
extremism" and "takfir" (the practice of declaring other Muslims to be
nonbelievers). They are also guilty of the "spilling forbidden [Muslim] blood,"
Zawahiri says, and this path only serves the "proxies of America."

In a telling passage, Zawahiri calls on "our brethren, the heroes of Islam, the
mujahideen of the Levant" to assist "their brethren in Iraq in reorganizing
themselves."

Zawahiri famously sought to keep Al Nusrah Front in Syria, which was recently
rebranded as Jabhat Fath al Sham (JFS, or Conquest of the Levant Front),
separate from Baghdadi's Islamic State. Zawahiri ruled that Baghdadi's
organization should be confined to Iraq, but the Islamic State refused to
comply with his order.

Zawahiri now says the "battle is one," with the Levant being "an extension of
Iraq" and Iraq serving as "the depth of the Levant."

That is, Zawahiri wants the jihadists in Iraq to follow the same strategy
employed by al Qaeda in Syria. Under Zawahiri's guidance, the group formerly
known as Al Nusrah deeply embedded itself within the anti-Assad opposition
and cultivated roots within the Syrian society.

There is no hint in Zawahiri's message that he feels betrayed by the jihadists
in Syria. On the contrary, he wants the jihadists in Iraq to follow their model.
When Zawahiri asks the "mujahideen of the Levant" to help their "brethren" in
Iraq, he is clearly referring to JFS and others who have been following al
Qaeda's strategy.

The al Qaeda master further connects the jihad in Iraq to Syria by pointing
out that Iranian-backed "militias and mercenaries" fight in both countries.
Zawahiri says this is because Iran and its allies seek to annihilate Sunnis
across the Middle East. He claims that Sunnis are being tortured and
slaughtered in Iraq under the "pretext" of fighting Baghdadi's Islamic State,
but the supposed real reason for this can be found in the Iran's expansionist
goals. Zawahiri claims that the Iranians and the Americans have reached an
"accord" that will allow a Crusader-Iranian-Alawite coalition (meaning an
alliance of Western, Iranian and Assad regime forces) to swallow the whole
region.

Even as Zawahiri rails against Iran, however, some of al Qaeda's most senior
leaders are stationed inside the country today.

All three episodes of Zawahiri's "Brief Messages to a Victorious Ummah" series
have been released this month. As Sahab has suffered production delays over
the past two years, but the current pace of releases indicates that the official
media shop for al Qaeda's senior leadership is able to regularly churn out
content once again. In the first episode of the new series, Zawahiri blasted
the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. In the second, he called on Muslims to
support the Afghan Taliban and reject the Islamic State's upstart presence in
Afghanistan.

[Source: By Thomas Joscelyn, The Long War Journal, NJ, 29Aug16]

This document has been published on 02Sep16 by the Equipo Nizkor and Derechos Human Rights. In accordance with
Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a
prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational
purposes.