These are my says about contemporary happenings.. These writings have appeared in newspapers and magazines in Europe, the Middle East — primarily the Gulf Today of Sharjah, the UAE, India, and the Far East, mainly Japan. Some of the writings are critical of the US and that should be attributed to the fact that realities on the ground clearly indicate that American policies are laid down against interests of the Third World.

Saturday, June 25, 2005

What lies ahead for Lebanon

June 24, 2005

What lies ahead for Lebanon

THE PEOPLE of Lebanon, the Arabs at large and the international community are fascinated by the fast pace of events in Lebanon that has taken everyone by surprise since the Feb.14 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Al Hariri. Many analysts tend to describe the developments in Lebanon as the "cedar revolution."Syria has been forced to withdraw its military from Lebanon — thus ending nearly three decades of its absolute dominance of its neighbour. The country held parliamentary elections that saw the anti-Syrian opposition securing an eight-seat majority in the 129-member assembly. And the Lebanese are set to embark on a new era in their modern history, but they have to deal with numerous wild cards that could spring surprises, writes PV Vivekanand.With the bloc led by Saadeddine Al Hariri, son of the slain prime minister, sweeping the polls on an anti-Syrian reform ticket plus of course the sympathy factor, the stage is set for the next but crucial phase of Lebanese politics. No matter what the perspective, reshaping Lebanon's relations with Syria is one of the top priorities of the new government and that is where it might run into serious problems.Those problems will stem from the differing priorities of the various groups that make up Lebanon's political mosaic.According to election returns and party affiliations, the "Lebanese national opposition," a coalition led by Saadeddine Al Hariri, won 72 seats, enabling to form the next government. Hariri's coalition includes the Progressive Socialist Party of Walid Junblatt with 14 seats, the Lebanese Forces Party of jailed Samir Geagea with six seats and the Qornet Shehwan grouping with six seats. The Shiite Hizbollah and its ally Amal won a total of 35 seats. Former general Michael Aoun, who returned from exile in May, won 21 seats after he made an alliance with pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud when he found himself without any allies. All groupings have differing and conflicting priorities and these could emerge with force once a government is installed, most probably with Saadeddine Al Hariri as prime minister and Junblatt as well as Geagea's wife and the widow of slain president Bashir Germayel assuming key positions. According to analyst Dr. Walid Phares, a professor of Middle East Studies and senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, the new political map is: Hariri, a Sunni who is backed by Saudi Arabia and the US, tops the list. He is supported by Junblatt, who, according to Phares, is anti-American. The two of them "control the legislature with backing from a smaller number of Christian legislators who are historically anti-Syrian but have joined the alliance to achieve interim or tactical agendas," says the analyst.Hizbollah and Amal stand second, and with them the remnants of the pro-Syrian regime. They will ally themselves to any government that will protect them from the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 which calls forr their disarmament.Aoun, with the largest bloc of the Christian MPs, is third and has begun from a position of weakness, but perhaps he will emerge as the loudest voice, Phares predicts. Aoun backs the call for Hizbollah to be disarmed but considers the confrontation with Syria over. The Hariri camp wants to take Lebanon totally away from the Syrian orbit and set it on a course of its own while maintaining Beirut-Damascus relationship in a tight frame. It will be a delicate rope-trick since the Syrians will be closely watching every Lebanese move for signs that Beirut is succumbing to American pressure to cut a seperate peace deal with Israel without Syria having any say.Few politicians and commentators have bothered to recall that the US had given an implicit green signal to Syria in 1990 to have its way in Lebanon in return for Damascus joining the coalition which evicted Iraq from Kuwait through war in early 1991. The US maintained that position until it became clear that Syria would not sign on the Israeli-dotted lines in a peace agreement. Syria's opposition to the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in March 2003 sealed the course of the American action against Damascus. Indeed, it could even be argued that Syria did not respect its side of the 1990 bargain by opposing the Iraq war of 2003. Today, the US backs the Hariri camp as well as all other forces opposed to Syria, and there are strong indications that Washington would seek to cut Lebanon out of the overall Arab-Israeli equation and work out such a separate Lebanese-Israeli deal. Whether a Hariri-led government would be amenable to that remains to be seen. In principle, Lebanon does not have any territorial dispute with Israel after the UN Security Council ruled last year that the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms area belongs to Syria and not to Lebanon.Israel occupied the area from Syria in the 1967 war, but Damascus had since then argued that it belonged to Lebanon. That was seen as a ploy to keep Lebanon engaged in the Arab-Israeli conflict since groups like Hizbollah could wage continued resistance against the Jewish state even after the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 1999. The US-engineered resolution adopted by the UN Security Council did away with that. An Israeli-Lebanese peace agreement would leave Syria on its own to deal with the Jewish state's occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights, and Damascus could be expected to fight that eventuality with tooth and nail. And here would be the key role of groups like the Shiite Hizbollah and Amal, which will block such moves.At the same time, they would also have to withstand pressure for them to be disarmed, and the Hariri bloc seems have given them some assurance that this would not be done. However, the next item on the American agenda in Lebanon is disarming Hizbollah and Palestinian groups in camps in the south of the country. This was affirmed by US Assistant Secretary of State Liz Cheney during a meeting with Arab journalists this week. Therefore, the tacit, temporary alliance that the Hariri camp had with Hizbollah mediated by Druze leader Junblatt will be put to test sooner than later.In the meantime, Syria also expect increased American pressure.That was made clear when Washington accused Syria of being behind the killing of George Hawi, former chief of Lebanon's Communist Party and a harsh critic of Syria,. It is the third prominent assassination of an anti-Syrian Lebanese figure. The first two were Hariri, who was killed in a bomb blast on Feb.14, and journalist Samir Kassis, a bitter critic of Syria, who died in a bombing this month. While the immediate conclusion is that Syria was behind the three killings, a quick scrutiny of the realities on the ground would indicate that there is something wrong in following conventional thinking to decide that the Syrians are eliminating anti-Syrian voices in Lebanon. In fact, Damascus and its allies in Lebanon lost a lot as a result of the killings and stand to lose much more in the days ahead. We have seen the Syrians being forced to end its nearly 30 years of dominance in Lebanon following the Hariri assassination and international pressure mounting on Damascus to stay away from Lebanese affairs. We know that the Syrians are not stupid or naive enough to think that they could get aay with killing people like Hariri and Kassis. They would know that the first accusing figure would be levelled against them. They would know that the US is waiting to grab any opportunity that came along to step up pressure against Syria. They would know that such assassinations would only bring immense strains on Syrian-Lebanese relations. They would also know that they would be the end losers in Lebanon.Who benefited indirectly from the killings? Whover hated Syria's role in Lebanon and wanted to end it. This would mean a majority of the people of Lebanon and Israel.Are there people capable of carrying out such precision assassinations present in Lebanon? Yes, the pro-Syrian Lebanese secutity agencies. Will they do that, knowing well that Syria will have to pay the price? No.Then who could have done it? Anyone who has a state intelligence aparata and strong intelligence presence in Lebanon. Who would that be? None other than Israel.Israel got rid of Syria from Lebanon. Now, it could seek to deal directly with Lebanon away from Syrian influence and strike an agreement that removes Lebanon from the overall Arab-Israeli equation. That would also leave Syria as the last holdout against signing peace with Israel.The killing of Hawi was strange. He was not a real threat to the pro-Syrian government; nor was he a danger to Syria itself. Lebanese media have noted that Hawi was not engaged in remarkable or delicate political activities and his ideas did not affect anybody, even if he was close to the opposition against Syrian tutelage."Just as Kassir's assassination took place soon after the first round of the parliamentary elections in Beirut, Hawi's assassination came after the wrap-up of the final round of parliamentary elections, as if Lebanon is destined to walk through a minefield before reaching the safe shores of freedom," wrote Beirut's Daily Star newspaper. "All the politicians who condemned Hawi's assassination unanimously agreed the country is not secure — with or without international fostering; with the presence of a government fully subject to Syria's influence or one independent and free of Syria's hegemony," wrote the paper. Security Forces have arrested five Syrian nationals shortly after the murder of Hawi in a car bomb. They were to be hiding on the roof of a nearby building, but nothing else was reported about them beyond that. Junblatt, who says he fears that Syria is tageting him, asserted that "The one who doesn't want Lebanon to gain its independence and freedom and wants chaos to prevail is the one behind murdering Hawi."President Lahoud rejected charges that he was somehow involved in the killing. He vowed to uncover those responsible for this "barbaric crime," saying all state capacities would be mobilied to achieve this goal."Every time Lebanon advances new steps to keep law and order, evil hands destabilise the situation again," said Lahoud. "With regard to the persistent suggestion that the president is linked to the so-called security state, everyone knows that he does not directly supervise the security agencies," he pointed out. What happens next in Lebanon?There is indeed fear that any politician could be killed at any juncture and this would figure as a key consideration for any political move in the country in the days ahead. While the obvious "beneficiary" from such a state of fear is Syria — as most anti-Syrians argue — it has to be remembered that Israel, which is indeed enthusiastic that it could now play its own game in Lebanon — stands to gain the most.In the meantime, it is highly unlikely that an objective and realistic investigation into the Hariri, Kassis and Hrawi killings would produce irrefutable evidence as to who the perpetrators were. The assassinations were professional, indicating the involvement of a state-run intelligence network; and Israel's Mossad has the best expertise and indeed experience in carrying out such actions and leaving no trace of its involvement. Regardless of whether Syria had anything to do with any or all of the killings, Damascus is targeted for American action. And we could expect the determined American action taking its course just as we saw Washington bulldozing its way into invading and occupying Iraq through deception.Caught in the equation would be Lebanon, and it is upto the new leadership that has emerged from the elections to make the best of the situation. In order to do that, the various political forces of the country have to come together on a common platform, and that is the most daunting task awaiting them.

Links

About Me

I have lived in the Middle East for the past 27 years and believe I do have an opinion of my own about what has been going on here. I respect other people's opinion and views and always welcome criticism.
I have closely followed the developments in the Middle East from close as well as from far in order to get a fair understanding of the issues of the region. I have come up with my own impressions, and do not claim that they represent the most accurate picture. Most of my predictions have come true, and some have gone wrong if only because unexpected and unpredictable players entered the ring.
Currently I am editor the Sharjah-based Gulf Today English-language daily.