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David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures. Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions. Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.

The Four Rules of Currency Intervention

With the US Dollar Index taking out an all time low previously set in 1992, I thought I would take this moment to discuss my thoughts about where the dollar is going, and what we might see along the way. If the dollar gets much lower against the major currencies of our world, I would expect to see some currency intervention to try to raise the value of the US dollar.

There are rules to effective currency interventions. There may be more than four, but here are the four that I know.

Do the intervention on a day when the economic releases favor a stronger US Dollar.

Do the intervention when traders are overconfident, and pressing their bearish dollar bets too aggressively. Catch them leaning the wrong way.

Don’t do it alone. You will fail. You must get the central banks of most of your major trading partners to go along to create an impression of unanimity.

Do it BIG. This is not a time to hold back; either do it BIG, or don’t do it at all. You want the currency traders to wish they had never taken up the profession.

You want to have at least three of these in play for an effective intervention. You want to create a genuine panic that feeds on itself, leading everyone to readjust their positions on the US Dollar, pushing it up, and winning the psychological battle against a lower US Dollar.

Easy, right? Well, no. In the short run, interventions work if done properly. They don’t solve the macroeconomic problems underlying the weak Dollar, though, and so toward the end of the shock move upward in the Dollar, I would be inclined to buy more foreign bond exposure. Why?

During the intervention, the participating central banks suck in US Dollars, and pump out their local currencies. In the case of the Fed, they sell foreign currencies and buy US Dollars. Most of these central banks have all of the US Dollar assets that they want already, and they understand the fundamental situation regarding the US Dollar. So, like OPEC in their ineffective days, where they would announce production cuts, and then everyone cheats, in this case, the Central Banks do the intervention, but then quietly recycle the US Dollar assets that they never really wanted to hold.

That leads to a slow retest of the levels that the intervention happened at, and eventually, breaking through the level, at which point, the Central Banks can try again, or give up. Eventually the response is a “give up,” after which, the US Dollar slowly overshoots and then finds a new temporary equilibrium level, and the rest of the world adjusts to it.

I’m leaving out a lot here. The internal political pressures to keep the Dollar from falling. The effects on export industries. The slowly growing willingness to buy US Goods and services. Rising interest rates in the US. Rising inflation abroad. And more.

The investment implication is this, though. Until an intervention happens, the path of the US Dollar is down. After it happens, the path of the US Dollar is down, until a new equilibrium is found. Economies are bigger than governments, and in the long run, governments can’t affect exchange rates.

Just stay on your toes, and be ready to buy non-Dollar assets after the coming currency intervention.

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About David Merkel

David J. Merkel, CFA, FSA, is a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com. Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited David to write for the site, and write he does — on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, and more. His specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.
David is also presently a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. He also manages the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.
Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, Merkel managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, he joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.
His background as a life actuary has given David a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that David will deal with in this blog.
Merkel holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University. In his spare time, he takes care of his eight children with his wonderful wife Ruth. View all posts by David Merkel →