Wednesday, November 10, 2010

A week ago, I posted my offseason blueprint, a suggested course of action for the Twins' general manager based on the information laid out in TwinsCentric's Offseason GM Handbook.

My blueprint was mostly savaged in the comments sections both here on my blog and at StarTribune.com. Certainly, there were some valid critiques. Some disagreed with the idea of bringing Jim Thome back at a heightened salary, and that's something I myself have struggled with. Some felt non-tendering Matt Capps, with the uncertainly surrounding Joe Nathan, was an illogical decision. Almost everyone hated the proposed Michael Cuddyer-for-Derek Lowe swap, and in fact the commenters convinced me that this wouldn't be a particularly bright move. In truth, I only included it because I was trying to come with a creative and realistic way to move Cuddyer's salary, illustrating the point that if he was going to be traded the team would almost assuredly have to take on another bad contract in return. Alas, it's a moot point since Cuddyer isn't going anywhere.

Mostly I sensed that readers' dissatisfaction with the blueprint came from the fact that it didn't do very much to shake up the roster. Beyond the additions of Lowe and Grant Balfour, little was done to overhaul a club that was unceremoniously ousted from the playoffs by the Yankees for a second straight year. Commenters bemoaned the lack of major moves -- no blockbuster addition in the form of a frontline ace, middle-of-the-lineup bat, or speedster who could cover ground in the outfield and ramp up the team's aggressiveness on the base paths.

While I certainly sympathize with those takes, I suspect that the people hankering for major changes are setting themselves up for grave disappointment. The front office's main directive this offseason will be holding together the current roster as much as possible, not bringing in new marquee pieces. And that's not necessarily such a bad thing.

A year ago, funding was flush. The Twins were realizing the financial windfall made possible by Target Field in anticipation of the ballpark's inaugural season. Payroll increased by about 50 percent over the Opening Day mark in 2009, which allowed Bill Smith to show unprecedented aggressiveness on the free agent and trade markets. He added salary by dealing Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy. He was able to retain Carl Pavano for $7 million. He brought in Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson. He handed Joe Mauer the largest contract in franchise history.

I was thoroughly impressed with Smith's efforts last winter and labeled it an offseason for the ages, suggesting that the GM played his cards to "damn near perfection." The result was an excellent product for fans in the first year at Target Field.

This is a fact that gets lost in the uproar surrounding the team's quick playoff exit. Yes, the Twins lost three straight games to the Yankees, and yes, they happened to be the most important games of the year. But the Twins also won 94 games in the regular season. They were the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot. They absolutely demolished the second-place finishers in their division, who were certainly no slouches. They went 7-3 against the eventual American League Champions. The Twins were fantastic this year.

And they accomplished all that without the services of Joe Nathan for the entire year and Justin Morneau for half the year. They accomplished it despite getting worse performances than many had come to expect from the likes of Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and others. With better health and some rebound campaigns next year, the Twins could easily be poised to repeat as division champs and make a deeper run in the postseason if they can keep the current group mostly intact. You can bet that this will be the front office's imperative as the hot stove season gets underway.

It won't be easy. As Joe Christensen noted last week, the Twins have about $105 million committed to their roster for next year even if you don't account for the 10 departing free agents. That leaves them with a lot of spots to fill and not a lot of money to do it. We will probably see them trying to find a way to replace the vital production of Carl Pavano and Orlando Hudson at minimal expense. Signing a big-name free agent is a pipe dream unless payroll leaps in a way that no one foresees.

A lack of significant activity would not be a death sentence, by any means. Ownership held up their end of the bargain by jacking up payroll last year and spending will probably increase again this year, though not by nearly the same percentage. The front office did its job by using these increased funds to build a strong, division-winning club, and while I don't doubt that Smith has a few solid moves up his sleeve for the offseason, it's not reasonable to expect the same kind of drastic upgrades.
The decisive factor in the team's success next season will likely be whether those players who return can stay healthy and produce at a higher level.

People complain about the lack of a team ace, but Francisco Liriano is fully capable of assuming that role. For that matter, Baker has the stuff of a front-line starter -- his strikeout rate this year was better than that of CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, C.J. Wilson and Phil Hughes, to name a few.

There's talk about the need to add power from the right side, but J.J. Hardy -- who went deep only six times this year -- hit 50 home runs between 2007 and 2008 and he's still only 28. Cuddyer hit 32 home runs in 2009 and 14 in 2010. Increased production from these two would go a long way toward balancing this lefty-heavy lineup.

Finally, I think people tend to forget what a powerful force Mauer, Morneau and Kubel are when they're all healthy and productive. In 2009, this was arguably the most fearsome trio of hitters in the league. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to return to that level if they can all come back healthy next season.

The 2010 Twins were great despite not playing up to their full potential. It's not glamorous and it's obviously not real popular with the fan base, but a lack of major changes this offseason could be just what the doctor ordered. The talent is already in place.

52 comments:

I agree with you, Nick. The Twins would be best served this offseason by making just a couple of minor moves around the edges of the roster (bench, bullpen). The existing roster should be able to stay in the race throughout the spring. If the front office resists the temptation to do something drastic now, they'll still have the resources available to acquire whatever they're going to need over the summer.

Though I agree with most of your post, I do feel that to really be a force come playoff time we need at least one other very good pitcher, assuming one of the guys from our perennially "good" but not "great" pitchers can make that jump. Right now it doesn't feel like our pitching staff has the combination of talent and poise to get the job done in playoff situations. A rotation like ours is great for winning divisions, but when you're trying to outduel guys like Sabathia, Lee, Price, etc. it just won't get the job done. I certainly hope Liriano becomes that guy, and I think he has a legitimate shot, but he's just not there yet mentally. But Baker? Slowey? Blackburn? Duensing? Who do you trust to throw game two of a playoff series?

There's a difference between what the Twins WILL do and what they SHOULD do. We know this. We know the Twins will once again fail to make any big changes and focus only on competing in the Central. They will ignore the lessons the Yankees once again imparted on the club (1. We need a starting pitcher. 2. We need a RH bat.) They will seemingly pretend the playoffs don't exist. They will focus doing just enough to make sure Target Field sells out every game, but stop short of rewarding the fans who funded the stadium (and who are already paying for a ticket increase in year 2) by going "all in" for a playoff run.

I'll say this for about the 3rd consecutive offseason: the Twins don't have enough starting pitching to win in the playoffs. They're going to play either NY, BOS, or TB (longshot). Can we at least admit this? Okay. NY has proved to us over the last 2 years that they have better starters than us. Now add Cliff Lee. Is our rotation better than Beckett/Lester/Buchholz/Lackey? Laughable.

Oh, and counting on Mauer/Morneau/Kubel to be completely healthy is, um, the definition of naive, I think.

The past 2 seasons have taught us many things about this club. Why people continue to turn a blind eye to them is beyond me.

The Twins situation reminds me of the Wild - fans were so happy to get hockey back in town, in a fantastic arena, that they were seemingly oblivious to the playoff failures and giant front office blunders until it was too late. Now the team is in constant rebuilding mode, the future is bleak, and fans aren't filling the arena.

Look at the current state of affairs for Cleveland, Baltimore, Seattle. I know everyone loves the Twins winning the division and all, but very soon the window is going to close on this team, we'll be looking at some lean years ahead and wondering, Gee, it sure would've been nice to make a run at a World Series while we had the chance.

Fans are always hung up on what just happened. And since the twins were just dispatched with ease, so the twins are incapable of winning. Lots of fans refuse to accept that its not possible to build a team to win a short series. Instead of thinking the giants and their collection of awful, overpaid, old journey men simply got hot at the right time, lots of fan choose to believe the giants won because of nonsense like their heart and guts.

The problem is, Nick, there aren't any easy answers out there for the Twins. The holes that keep the Twins from being a great team aren't exactly easy to fix. It's not like you can just pop out to the store and pick up a Cliff Lee on sale. Even the competition to land a Grant Balfour is going to be intense. Every year though, there's a guy who suddenly goes Balfour or Lee. To me, the question is how do we trade Cuddyer for that guy instead of Derek Lowe?

Anon, the Giants won because of their starting pitching. Did you watch the Series? It was pretty much solely pitching. Look at the rotations of the recent WS participants. It's all about pitching. Cain, Lincecum, Bumgardner are not old, they are not journeymen (drafting high school pitchers with ace potential? how daring!). They are simply very good pitchers. Bolstering the rotation gives you the best chance at winning in the playoffs. Pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching. It's not that hard. Pitching. We know the Twins won't do much this offseason. For the love of god, make one significant move for pitching. One move. Or do it midseason. Please. We need better starting pitching.

I think this is not going to be a great year for the Twins. Probably they could win the division but I am not hopeful for anything beyond that.The reason is that they have a bunch of players with very expensive contracts (Cuddyer, Nathan, to name the 2 biggest examples. I don't mention Mauer here because he is the franchise player) that are not expected to play to the level of their salaries. Therefore, the is no payroll room to hire the ace that everybody wants, and there will be holes in the bullpen. That and some new injury that always happens, and this will be another good, but not super Twins team. Now, 2012, with some of the payroll ballast gone, could be different. I think if you assume this reality, then there could be a reasonable discussion.

The giants scored 7 earned runs against cliff lee in 4.2 innings on their way to an 11-7 win in game one. Dominate pitching there. They scored 9 runs in game 2. The giants pitched well no doubt but it certainly wasnt just pitching that won the world series. And ill argue that while the giants pitching was good, the rangers not scoring any runs was in part due to them struggling in general. Their risp and 2 out hitting numbers against the yankees were absolutely unsustainable and made their offense look really good. When those numbers dropped off they stopped scoring.

And of the 4 guys the giants started, while all good pitchers, only lincecum is an elite starter.

Oh, and counting on Mauer/Morneau/Kubel to be completely healthy is, um, the definition of naive, I think.

Expecting a trio of players to whom you've committed over $40 million to be healthy is "naive"? OK, well then that naiveté is something you're going to have to deal with because I can pretty much guarantee it's what the Twins will be counting on, just as any team counts on their highly paid stars to be healthy and play well.

The past 2 seasons have taught us many things about this club. Why people continue to turn a blind eye to them is beyond me.

The past two seasons bear little commonality. The Twins lost in '09 because they were hopelessly overmatched; they went out and reloaded during the offseason, spending over $30M to bring in fresh blood while locking up the AL MVP long-term, and they got swept again the next year. One has little to do with the other, regardless of how many ridiculous connections you want to draw.

Ha so basically those guys are good when they are playing good? genuis! Here i'll add another one.

Wow, impressive that you were able to read the entire article and nitpick that one sentence by completely misinterpreting the point. Congratulations, you must be proud of yourself! You certainly showed me.

Pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching. It's not that hard. Pitching. We know the Twins won't do much this offseason. For the love of god, make one significant move for pitching. One move. Or do it midseason. Please. We need better starting pitching.

Ed, this argument consistently falls short when you consider that pitching has not been responsible for the Twins' recent postseason failures. Have they been swept three straight times because they've allowed an average of 5.3 R/G during in their past three sweeps, or because they've scored an average of 2.2 R/G?

I'm sorry but you can't expect to win games when you can't ever score more than three runs. No matter how good your pitching staff is they're not going to consistently shut down playoff offenses to that degree. That's not a realistic expectation even if you add Cliff Lee to your staff.

Tell me, what changes are you going to make to the pitching staff so that it will mirror the lights-out Giants and enable the Twins to reach the World Series while averaging barely over two runs per game, since you don't seem to view the lack of offense as a focal issue?

This was a good lineup that simply shut down in the playoffs. There's little reason to expect that to happen again, especially if they are healthier next year.

Anon, you must be joking. 0 runs on 4 hits in Game 2, 0 runs on 3 hits in Game 4, 1 run on 3 hits in Game 5. You're joking, right? The Rangers struggled with RISP because they never got any runners in scoring position because the Giants pitching was outstanding. 10 COMBINED HITS in 3 wins!

You must be a Twins fan, though, because you seem to put the blame solely on the hitters. Like it's shocking that hitters run into good pitching in the postseason, and anything less than 5 runs/game is underperforming.

Keep crossing your fingers that our lineup will magically start to pound lefties Lee, CC, and Pettitte next ALDS while Liriano, Baker, and Slowey combine to give up 10 hits and 1 run in 3 wins. That sounds really really reasonable.

You also mention that Cuddy, Span, and Blackburn all had down years... Were they really? Cuddy has had two good years total in MLB, and cannot field anywhere. Span's minor league numbers suggest his output this year was more accurate than the year and a half we got from him before 2010, and he can't play centerfield. Blackburn, well we all knew he was and is Carlos Silva. The league has figured him out, and even his first two years the league batted really well against him. He is what he is, not a major league pitcher.

My point is, you expect those 3 guys to bounce back, and in addition, you also think JJ Hardy will revert to 07' & 08' form? Hardy is what he is now, a good fielding, ok hitting, poor on base player with no speed, who gets hurt a lot.

I agree with Ed, we have to try and upgrade the pitching. Not sure how we do that, since nobody is taking Cuddy and Blackburn off our hands. We also need to get a RH bat, as DH when facing lefties and who can play a position (Lance Berkman).

The window is now to win. Our best prospects are too young to rely on anytime soon, so we need to get creative.

How we do that, well maybe we explore that some more. I wish I knew, and I wish the Twins knew.

"Have they been swept three straight times because they've allowed an average of 5.3 R/G during in their past three sweeps, or because they've scored an average of 2.2 R/G?"

Both! Both! 5.3 r/g IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH IN THE PLAYOFFS! Show me a team who won the World Series giving up 5.3 r/g. Please. You're expecting the offense to come up with 6 runs/game? That's absolutely ludicrous for playoff baseball Nick. That's ludicrous for regular season baseball. Come on.

"There's little reason to expect that to happen again, especially if they are healthier next year."

Except that it's happened every single year for the last 5 postseasons under Gardy. I fully expect it to happen again next year.

"Tell me, what changes are you going to make to the pitching staff?"

I already told you. Aggressively go after Zack Greinke. I've said this before. We're all in agreement that the Twins can't do a whole lot this offseason, right? So focus on 1 thing. What's easier to improve: starting pitcher, by adding 1 guy, or lack of offense? If you can't get Greinke, go after de la Rosa. Maybe a trade deadline guy.

Just being "not terrible" doesn't cut it in the playoffs. Your guy has to be better than their guy. Wasn't the case for any of the Twins losses this year.

They scored 9 runs in game 2 ed. The shut out the rangers but saying pitching won that game is just cherry picking your information. And im not really putting the blame on anyone with the twins. They didnt hit against the yankees but thats the type of thing that happens in a 3 game series. Ive been critical of the pitching in the past. I wouldnt have let nick blackburn near the playoff roster and I wouldnt have started duensing because i believe slowey and baker are more capable pitchers. But the results of a handful of game are so random its pointless to analyze them meaningfully. Cliff lee was great for the first 2 series of the playoff and awful in the world series. Roy halladay threw a no hitter and was beaten in the nlcs. Sometimes great pitchers pitch badly and sometimes bad pitchers pitch great. You are just looking to prove a point. Which ever team won you were going to point to their pitching as the critical component, while ignoring all the teams that added more, better pitching than the giants and lost. The rangers traded a ton for lee and lost. The phillies probably had 3 of the 4 best pitchers in the nlcs and lost. Every year the yankees sign the top free agent pitcher and they lost. The playoffs are about whos hot and sometimes whos not.

Plus Kubel, he's going to "revert to form". And Baker, his strikeout numbers suggest a big year for him. Mauer's power will come back. Young and Valencia will have career years again. Basically, all the players who had bad years will have good ones, all the players who had good years will have identical ones, and no one will get injured, and we'll magically waltz into the World Series. Yay!

"They scored 9 runs in game 2 ed. The shut out the rangers but saying pitching won that game is just cherry picking your information."

It was 2-0 going into the bottom of the 8th. It's okay if you didn't watch the game. I'm going to go ahead and say pretty much every time your pitcher only gives up 4 hits, you're going to win the game.

The Yankees averaged 5.3 R/G this year. It's "ludicrous" for them to manage their average scoring output in the playoffs, and even in the postseason? I think you need to adjust your expectations.

Sabathia handled the Twins in the ALDS and didn't pitch well in the playoffs outside of that. Phil Hughes dominated the Twins and was awful against the Rangers. Did the Yankees outscore the Twins because their pitching was markedly better or because their offense performed a lot better? I think the evidence points to the latter.

Before the ALDS got underway, few people believed the Yankees had sizable pitching advantages in any of the match-ups. For you to look back the results and claim otherwise displays clear hindsight bias.

Except that it's happened every single year for the last 5 postseasons under Gardy. I fully expect it to happen again next year.

Then this is something you and I will never see eye to eye on. The past does not dictate the future, and when you've got a good team that wins a division and makes the playoffs you've got a chance to advance. Obviously there are areas where the Twins could stand to improve -- an additional right-handed bat chief among them -- but the notion that the Twins should overhaul their entire roster in order to win a five-game series against a specific opponent is what I'd call ludicrous.

Adding a starting pitcher and a RH bat is not overhauling the roster. It's called recognizing how far your team got last year and why they didn't get farther and attempting to improve the team. This would seem like the very definition of a good GM's job. Are you against improving the rotation and/or the team? Sometimes it sounds like you are.

Holding pat with a team that got its weaknesses exposed in a sweep, while the teams around you get better, seems like a reason GMs get fired in towns/organizations that actually care about postseason success.

"It was 2-0 going into the bottom of the 8th. It's okay if you didn't watch the game." I dont care when runs are scored because they actually all count for the same amount. And thanks for easing my mind about not watching the game. Means a lot.

"I'm going to go ahead and say pretty much every time your pitcher only gives up 4 hits, you're going to win the game."

07/01/2007 Scott baker: 8 ip, 3 hits, 1 ER L (0-1). It's not ok that you didnt remember this game, youre not actually a baseball fan. What you said is typically true, but there are 2 components to baseball, offense and defense, and actually both impact the result of the game. You can have an elite offense and defense and lose a short series to any team in baseball. Nonsense about pitching winning in the playoffs so cliche and way too simple. And stock piling elite pitching is very expensive and so random. You think nick blackburn cant "beat" tim lincecum in a game? You're wrong.

"The Yankees averaged 5.3 R/G this year. It's "ludicrous" for them to manage their average scoring output in the playoffs, and even in the postseason? I think you need to adjust your expectations."

We're talking about the Twins, though. The Twins managed 4.82 runs/game. So they should be expected to INCREASE their output by more than a half run/per game in the playoffs against 2 lefties (who we struggle against), one of whom is one of the best pitchers in the league, and the other of whom is approximately 77-0 against us over his career?

They gave up 4.14 runs/game in the regular season. Why is it acceptable for their pitchers to give up another run/game in the playoffs?

"Man, the Twins have WAY to much pitching. How can we win a playoff searies if they can't score any runs? Why, if I ran the organization, I would trade off my aces for solid production guys and pick up some journeyment lefties and a few callup pitchers to fill out the rotation."

The fact is that everyone wants the best possible lineup and rotation. Yes, Grienke makes the rotation better. No, we can't get him. Never in a million years. We didn't have the firepower to trade for a one year rental on Lee. Now minus Ramos we certainly don't have the pieces to get Grienke. Sorry Ed, but you just don't live in reality.

A right handed bat you say? Who exactly do you want to get that is better then Hardy and Cuddy? They aren't marquee players, but they should be solid next year. Oh I know, we should just trade for Evan Longoria!! Oh wait, what about Zimm from the nats? Now we have two guys to choose from, who do we grab? Woops, we wouldn't get those guys in a TRILLION years.

Here's the rub: we have a solid base for our lineup. We have a solid Ace in Liriano. We have a decent bullpen (great if Nathan gets back even at 80%). We have ZERO prospects to trade away. We have limited funds to sign FAs. Now what do you want to do with the team in the real world, not in your make believe lala land dreamworld?

The Mariners insisted on Aaron Hicks in a potential package for Cliff Lee, and the Twins would not give him up. Also, Olney believes the Twins to be front runners for Greinke's services, but only if they give up Hicks.

The RH bat: Derrek Lee. Also serves as your DH and replacement for Morneau when he gets hurt.

Are you talking about the same Derek Lee who's 35 years old, who made $13 million last year, while batting .260 - as the RH bat that will save us?

I'm not sure that:A. The Twins can afford him.B. That he'll stay healthy enough to be this backup we need and be a DH the rest of the time.C. That he'll do well against AL pitching.A, B, and C are a good bet if you're paying Kubel money. But is Derek Lee really going to take Kubel money?

Unless one of you has heard something I haven't, I don't think he's a realistic option, but I'd love him on the Twins.

We NEED pitching and a RH bat, but the way things are shaking out it looks as if there's no real choice but to try and rely on our own guys or get lucky signing someone affordable who turns out to be a good bargain ala Thome.

Nick, it sure seems to me like your only goal in the comments these days is the blindly and arrogantly dismiss anything I say. There are plenty of others who have suggested we need pitching help and a RH bat. Yet you direct all your vitriol at me and congratulate those who agree with you. Sorry for taking a dissenting opinion, man.

I know I get defensive on here. And I apologize for that. I do love talking Twins with other fans on here, but lately folks jump all over every thing I say and it becomes an argument. It's not civil anymore. It's less a discussion forum, more a boxing ring. I realize, a lot of this is my fault. I don't want to argue, I just want to watch my beloved Twins win a World Series. That's all.

So Nick, best of luck with the blog and all. We'll never see eye to eye on our favorite team, but I appreciate all the posts and discussions you've started. Thanks again.

Yet you direct all your vitriol at me and congratulate those who agree with you. Sorry for taking a dissenting opinion, man.

I don't know what I've said that you consider vitriolic. The only reasons I've addressed you individually more frequently than others is because you're the most active commenter pushing these themes and because it's easier to converse with someone who's actually using a real handle than someone going under the Anonymous label (for which I give you credit).

I admire your passion, but you seem to think there's some inherent fault in the Twins organization that prevents them from being able to beat the Yankees and I'll never believe that. The Twins have lost 12 consecutive playoff games for a multitude of reasons -- bad match-ups, bad performances and plain old bad luck -- but none of those have any real impact on how they will perform in the playoffs next year should they get there. When discussing how I'd handle the team's offseason agenda my main focus is building a team that can get there, and keeping this year's club intact seems like a reasonable way to do that given that they won 94 games without their best hitter and reliever, both of whom should return in some capacity.

You're more than welcome to continue commenting here, and I hope you will do so, but if you choose not to that's your prerogative. I apologize if you've taken exception to my perceived tone but if you consider my responses uncivil I think you're mixing me up with other commenters and I can't take responsibility for the things they say. I'd hope you're aware that you've made your own share of contentious comments, which doesn't bother me but makes your statement seem a little hypocritical.

And, to be clear, I would love to add Derrek Lee if he's affordable. I think that's a great idea. I just don't think the funding is going to be there. Zack Greinke would obviously make the rotation better but it baffles me that you seem to consider him a slam-dunk ace who would drastically improve the team's postseason chances when he was significantly worse than Liriano this season and has never pitched anything resembling a playoff game.

Ed, you have repeatedly cited Olney as saying the Twins could have had Lee for Hicks and Ramos. I say Olney is a liar, and he has been proven one with trade speculation before. But that’s the thing; you can't lie when you’re speculating, it’s all speculation after all.

Ramos was and is highly overrated among the twins organization and among the fan base. Hicks is a decent defender with decent speed, possessing poor plate skills with little power. Smoak is a legitimate prospect for the future. He has good power which should only get better. Even just Smoak is better than Hicks and Ramos in my book. And that fact is reflected by the national market, as I am willing to bet most anyone outside of Minnesota would respond instantly to Smoak’s name while struggling to remember what position Ramos plays. The real kicker is that Texas threw in some pretty decent filler along with Smoak. The best of them was Josh Lueke, who has some pretty dazzling stuff and put up ridiculous numbers this year in the minors. At this point we can look at Lueke’s propensity for sodomy and say he isn’t super attractive, but at the time he was free of a criminal record.

I remember distinctly feeling that Texas traded away a king’s ransom for Lee, and that is a feeling that remains strong today. Now what am I to do; look at an ESPN blog by Buster Olney and say “oh yea, maybe Ramos and Hicks could have gotten Lee”? I think I will trust my own baseball acumen and that of dozens of scouts over internet speculation.

And would it really be hard for someone to just enter anyones name into the name field and use it? No, it wouldn't.

I agree. I wish all commenters would at least come up with pseudonyms to consistently post under as it would make the discourse in the comments section a lot easier and cleaner. But, free country and all that, so folks can do as they please.

"I wish all commenters would at least come up with pseudonyms to consistently post under as it would make the discourse in the comments section a lot easier and cleaner." I dont think it matters much. People quote whatever i've said, i respond. It would be tough to confuse what ive said with another anon because my 'over the top purely statistical' arguments set me apart from the fake anonymous'

While my pseudonym may be simple and common, I believe my writing style is consistant enough to weed out all the fake Daves. All the same, maybe I should get an avatar. I wouldn't want anyone taking credit for my Delmon Young bashing from posts during the season. They were pure gold...

I think speculating on whether or not the Twins could have gotten Lee is pointless. I also think it's fairly evident that they wouldn't have moved past the first round even with him. You don't hit, you don't win.

ok, you are correct, we had the firepower. Mauer for Lee would have done it. More accurately Ramos and Hicks wasn't enough firepower. I am still waiting for someone to argue that Ramos and Hicks are better then Smoak and Lueke (not even considering the other two prospects)

The Twins have lost 12 consecutive playoff games for a multitude of reasons -- bad match-ups, bad performances and plain old bad luck -- but none of those have any real impact on how they will perform in the playoffs next year should they get there.

how come you never put anything gardy does as one of your reasons for their playoff streak? his preparation of the team leading up to the playoffs left them about as rusty as they could be. he gave up after the yanks came back in game 2, you could see it on face. he is not the leader that this team needs. he is the player's friend, he is there to congratulate when they are doing well and he is there to feel sorry for himself and his team when they are not playing well. he doesn't get on his stars or favorite players for stupid mistakes, but he will call out the young guys for the very same mistake in front of the media. if any player has an attitude that is short of "clubhouse guy" material, he wants them shipped off. a real manager will try to deal with all personalities instead of just getting guys that he likes to be around. a lot of the best players have chips on their shoulders. matt garza is one of those guys and we shipped him off. not saying he is or ever will be great, but he is the type of guy that every team needs at least one of. a guy whose attitude is "you're not going to beat me." I know we can't see everything that goes on with this team, but it doesn't seem like any of them have that attitude. Delmon might be close, he didn't seem to back down at all. he is confident in his approach and doesn't change.

i'm not saying that any decisions gardy made in any game in the playoffs mattered one bit. it is everything else he does that hinders the team. i think most of us that post on this blog could fill out a lineup card and handle situational matchups as well as most managers. when your best move to get the team motivated is to get tossed out of a game for a stupid argument with an umpire, i think you have lost your team.

i'm not asking for much. a manager that tries to fire his team up and not act like they have lost the series after 1 game shouldn't be that hard to come by. try to get more out of your players instead of just sitting there.

mauer, cuddyer, baker, hardy, span, kubel, slowey, liriano...all these guys are major leaguers, but they could all use a kick in the pants some days. we need a guy to do that instead of trying to be friends with all of them.

Do you really believe that Ron Gardenhire, a competitive guy who's been around baseball his entire life and has managed a successful team for a decade, just gave up after the Twins lost Game 1 and didn't bother trying to fire them up or motivate them to come back and win the series? You honestly believe that?

did you watch the series? he looked more like a fan that had nothing to cheer about than a manager.

you list bad performances as a reason they have lost so many games in a row in the playoffs. it's not just that, but listless performances. i know that no one is happy with the way the twins played in the playoffs this year. that happens, bad series happen. but can you honestly say that you were happy with the effort and the energy of the team? if you can honestly say yes, you were happy with that, then gardy is your guy. i was pissed off after watching those games. i'm not saying that they weren't trying, i am just saying that they looked like a team that wanted to go home after 1 loss. that is something that the manager needs to address. i would have loved to see gardy in the dugout screaming at the players, cheering them on, firing them up. it might not have worked, but nothing else was working either. we saw enough shots in the dugout after each pitch to know that it was lifeless.

a monkey could have led this team to the AL central title this past year. a monkey might have gotten us a better effort against the yankees too.

Why would Gardy start yelling and screaming at players in the dugout in the playoffs when he hasn't done so all year?I understand the frustrations and stuff, but you can't just change your personality for any given reason as a coach.Can that be bad? Yeah, Chilly won't be wearing a purple polo next year. Can it be good? Joe Torre got good results by not changing things come playoff time.These guys are supposed to be professional adults. If they can't fire themselves up, whether by clubhouse leadership or individually, they don't belong in the bigs.

sometimes even professionals need some motivation. i have seen gardy get on guys in the dugout before. it is just that it is certain guys (that usually don't play in the playoffs because they are young guys that rarely get to play in the postseason). he lets his favorites coast by.

he doesn't have to change anything tactically in the playoffs. he needs to show some fire (not just against the umpires). against the opposition and if need be, against his players. not brad childress style where you turn everyone against you, but to get them going.

it appears that almost everyone is content with gardy because of the regular season success in the division that has been the weakest in the AL during his tenure.

How about a manager that calls for a beanball after Thome gets hit? A manager that gets on Span for not taking Jeter out on a double play ball. Nice guys finish first in the AL Central and are the first guys eliminated in the playoffs.

They needed to show the Yankees that they weren't intimidated. Instead they just played night and went quietly into the night.

I am still waiting for someone to argue that Ramos and Hicks are better then Smoak and Lueke

I think the two packages are similar, and I think those that argue 'people WAY overrate Ramos' are the same people that tend to overrate Smoak. Time will tell, but IMO Ramos has an excellent chance of ending up more valuable than Smoak.

And for the record, I will be shocked if Lueke (the sodomite) ever sees the field as a Seattle Mariner. Currently, Seattle would love to be rid of the problem that is Josh Lueke.