June 27th, 2009

And that’s a good thing, because their SEC filings show that demand
is down from 2007-2007, as it is everywhere. It’s looking like
utilities are unable to sustain their drive for long distance market
dispatch, and if this trend is the reality, and their stock continues
to be in the toilet, they can’t build their transmission dream — this
is good news! Chalk up one for the economic depression!

All of us participating in the Delmarva Power IRP
have to make sure the PSC knows about the tanked market, after all,
they’re addressing how Delmarva Power will fulfill its demand, and for
sure we don’t need new generation (need different generation, to be
sure) or any transmission. As to needing different generation,
it’s particularly important at this time to attach a requirement to
SHUT DOWN FOSSIL FUEL to any RES. Without that, they’ll just sell
it elsewhere, and we won’t gain anything.

According to Gausman, PJM has also reviewed the need
for the section of the line that would run from Delmarva Power’s Indian
River substation near Millsboro, Del., to Salem, N.J., and has decided
to move this portion of the line into its “continuing study” category. This
means that the reconfigured MAPP line will now extend approximately 150
miles from northern Virginia, across southern Maryland and the
Chesapeake Bay, and terminate at Indian River. The change would likely reduce the total project cost from $1.4 billion to $1.2 billion.

(Emphasis added). Hee hee hee hee hee — “… terminate at Indian
River.” No Indian River to Salem, NJ section. Cutting a
section out is just one more step to tanking the project. What’s
the point of a radial line to Indian River? Some would say that
“hey, there’s transmission there, it’s not a radial line,” but there’s
NOT transmission there to facilitate the bulk power transfers coming in
on a 500kV line. The system there is comparatively VERY low
voltage. Others would note that the Indian River plant has two
units shutting down, but folks, they’re the smallest units, totalling
about 150MW or so, that will not make a big electrical difference,
though it has a significant impact on our ability to breathe the air in
southern Delaware! Taking the small Indian River units most
probably means that Bluewater Wind should have no problem
interconnecting — lets see the interconnection studies with Indian
River units off line!

Anyway, here’s the poop — and look at the PEPCO price: $13.39, about
half of what it was a year ago ($26.25) (for month, YTD, year and 5
year, go HERE)
If you look at the 5 year trend, it’s the same reflected in Xcel’s
demand — everything goes south in 2007. THIS IS NOT A “BLIP” FROM
LAST FALL’S CRASH, this is a 2 year, nearly 3 year trend. (For Xcel
month, YTD, year and 5 year, go HERE).