This publication contains projections for Tasmania by Statistical Division (SD), Statistical Subdivision (SSD), Statistical Local Area and Local Government Area for the period 30 June1999 to 30 June 2021.

A combination of assumptions of future levels of births, deaths and migration are used to illustrate the possible size, structure and distribution of Tasmania's population over the next 22 years. Three series are produced. However, the analysis below in most cases is done using Series B.

POPULATION SIZE

Tasmania's population is projected to grow, under Series A, from 470,800 at 30 June 1999 to 479,800 at 30 June 2018 and decrease to 479,300 by 30 June 2021. Under Series B and C the population will decline to between 434,500 and 457,000.

Natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, is projected to become negative between 2015-16 and 2020-21 in Series B and C.

Since 1996 Tasmania's annual population growth rate has been negative. Series A shows growth from 30 June 2001 to 30 June 2018 before declining. Series B shows decline in all but two years of the projection period. Series C shows decline throughout the projection period with a rate of decline of -0.6% for 2020-21.

Capital city/balance

The population of Greater Hobart SD, 194,400 at 30 June 1999, is projected to be between 180,000 and 200,200 by 30 June 2021. The balance of Tasmania, 276,400 at 30 June 1999, is projected to be between 254,400 and 279,100 by 30 June 2021. By 30 June 2021 it is projected that between 41% and 42% of Tasmania's population will be living in Greater Hobart SD, little changed from the 41% at 30 June 1999.

There is also likely to be little change in the distribution of population in the other Statistical Divisions with Southern SD having 8% in 2021, Northern SD between 28% and 29% and Mersey-Lyell SD 22%.

Local government areas

Of the 29 Local Government Areas (LGAs), 10 are projected to grow under all three series while 12 are projected to decline under all three series. Those projected to show strongest growth include Sorell, Latrobe, Kingborough, Kentish and Meander Valley. Those projected to show strongest decline include West Coast, Burnie, Devonport, King Island and George Town.

POPULATION AGEING

The projections show that the ageing of Tasmania's population will continue. This is the inevitable result of fertility remaining at low levels over a long period associated with increasing life expectancy. As growth slows, the population ages progressively with the median age of 36 years at 30 June 1999 increasing to 44-45 years by 30 June 2021.

By 30 June 2021, the number of people aged 65 years and over is projected to be at least fifty per cent greater than at 30 June 1999, increasing from 13% of the population at 30 June 1999 to 22-23% by 30 June 2021. In Series B, the highest annual rate of growth for this age group will occur in 2011-12 when the large cohort born in 1947, part of the post World War II 'baby boom', turns 65.

The 85 years and over age group numbered 6,400 (1.4% of the total population) at 30 June 1999. This group is projected to reach between 11,600 and 12,000 by 30 June 2021.

At 30 June 1999, the 85 years and over age group was dominated by women, who made up 70% of the group. In all three series this proportion is projected to fall to 64-65% by 30 June 2021 reflecting the increase in life expectancy of men and the narrowing gap in life expectancy between men and women.

The population aged 15-64 years, which encompasses much of the working-age population, made up 65% of Tasmania's population at 30 June 1999. This proportion increases slightly over the first nine years of the projection under all three series to reach over 66% by 30 June 2008. It then declines to just over 62% by 30 June 2021.

The population aged 0-14 made up 21% of the population at 30 June 1999. This will decline under all three series to between 15 and 16% by 30 June 2021.

Median age of the population

Under all three series the median age of Tasmania's population is projected to increase from 36 years of age at 30 June 1999 to between 44 and 45 years by 30 June 2021. In contrast, the median age of Australians is projected to increase more slowly, rising from 35 years at 30 June 1999 to between 40 and 42 years by June 2021.

Under Series B, LGAs with the highest median ages are projected to be Tasman (50 years), Glamorgan/Spring Bay (50 years), Break O'Day (50 years), Central Coast (48 years) and West Tamar (48 years). Under Series B, LGAs with the lowest median ages are projected to be Circular Head (38 years), West Coast (39 years), Brighton (39 years) and Sorell (40 years).

Under Series B, LGAs with the highest median ages for males are projected to be Break O'Day (50 years), Tasman (50 years) and Glamorgan/Spring Bay (49 years). Under Series B, LGAs with the lowest median ages for males are projected to be Circular Head (38 years), West Coast (38 years), Brighton (39 years) and Sorell (39 years).

Under Series B, LGAs with the highest median ages for females are projected to be Glamorgan/Spring Bay (51 years), Tasman (50 years) and Break O'Day (50 years). Under Series B, LGAs with the lowest median ages for females are projected to be Circular Head (38 years), West Coast (39 years) and Brighton (40 years).