Scott Stinson: The scenarios that could spark an election

Speculation about a federal election this spring has been high for weeks now. Since autumn became winter, in fact, the musing about a fall election almost immediately gave way to talk of a spring vote. Many trees have been felled and pixels burned to consider the possibilities. But now, we are down to the home stretch. The brass tacks. The short strokes. Any other cliché you can think of that denotes “near the end.” You’d think that would mean the positions have become clear. You’d be wrong. Scott Stinson examines the scenarios and the players.

The budget

Why it could spark an election: If all three opposition parties vote against, the government falls and the race is on. The Liberals have said eight ways from Sunday that they will vote against Tuesday’s budget unless corporate tax cuts are repealed. The Bloc Québécois has demanded billions of dollars for Quebec. Neither will get what they want, which is probably fine with the popular Bloc but puts the Liberals in the position of risking a vote or performing a remarkable climbdown.

Why it might not: The NDP has left itself enough wiggle room on the budget that it could vote in favour of one that includes attention on one of the party’s favoured issues, such as pension changes or relief for seniors.

But why it might: The Conservatives are well ahead in the polls, so if the government wanted to test the electorate it could bring forward a budget just unpalatable enough for the NDP that its defeat would be assured.

But why it might not: The Conservatives are in power. Post-vote, they might not be. Thus, the safe play is to get the budget passed by giving the NDP a big enough carrot.

Confidence motion

Why it could spark an election: The opposition has condemned the government for its behaviour in recent weeks, from refusing to disclose the cost estimates of prison expansions to allowing Bev Oda to mislead Parliament by implying that civil servants supported a decision on aid funding on which they had been overruled. Add in some other mini-scandals, and the Liberals on Friday have the chance to put forward a motion that has the House has lost confidence in the government. If it passes, the race should be on.

Why it might not: The Paul Martin government once survived one of these showdowns, arguing that a motion that expressed non-confidence was not technically a confidence motion. The Tories, if they really wanted to be felled on the budget and not a motion related to ethics, could probably do the same. Though, ethically speaking, that would be ironic.

The Conservative Party

Why it would want a vote: Depending on what poll you read, the ever-elusive majority government could be in reach. If the Tories won that, they could kneecap the opposition parties by cutting the per-vote subsidy, leaving them as the only party with money in the bank. Tempting.

Why it wouldn’t: It has been in power for years, and is used to governing from a minority position. If it passes a budget, it can just keep on doing that.

The Liberal Party

Why it would want a vote: Primarily because it has been floundering in the polls for months and needs an election to shake things up. As Maclean’s columnist Paul Wells wrote recently, the Liberals can’t catch a break outside a writ period, so maybe they should try it in one: “Don’t fear the electorate. Run toward it, arms waving.”

Why it wouldn’t: Because it has a hard time cracking 25% in the polls. It hasn’t run an effective campaign since 2000. And did we mention the polls?

The NDP

Why it would want a vote: It’s ideologically opposed to most things the government has done, and has voted against it at almost every opportunity over the past several years. So it should naturally want to see it replaced.

Why it wouldn’t: Pragmatism. There’s no guarantee the Liberals would perform as poorly under Michael Ignatieff as they did under Stéphane Dion, which means the most likely outcome of a vote is a Tory minority with fewer NDP seats. Jack Layton is also recovering from prostate cancer treatment and a broken hip. If he can find an out, you’d think he would take it.

The Bloc

Why it would want a vote: It’s well ahead in the polls in Quebec, the only province in which it has to campaign. It’s not so much that it [ital] wants[ital] a vote, it’s that it can’t come up with a good reason not to have one.