This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different time frames; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments, just click on "comments" and write away.

Monday, April 14, 2014

To paraphrase the wayfarers' saying: Red Sky At Night- Sailors' Delight, weird things happen in April and October. These are moon-based events - eclipses every 6 months, when we get earthquakes, market crashes. With the human body a high % liquid, the moon has a gravity pull - hence "lunatic".
Maybe this will precipitate a much-needed correction in the stock market, especially Nas and tech stocks.
Not much new in the Sentiment area, although Insider Selling by Industry group (although several n/as in there) actually doubled from the week before - 34 to 68 to 1. My favorite predictor, the McClellan Oscillator did fall to -48, just two points away from my usual BUY signal of minus 50 - hence the rally today!
Here are the numbers:

Date>

4/11/2014

4/4/2014

Indices:

DJIA

16026

16412

NAZ

3999

4127

SPX

1815

1865

WklyVolume (Bshs).

naz/ny

11.3/3.9

10.9/3.6

Specul.Ratio
hi=bullish

2.9

3.03

Sentiment:

put/call-CBOE

61

56

VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8

17

13.9

Advance/Dec-NYSE..

975/2241

2130/1063

Weekly Net:

-1266

1067

Cumulative:

157114

158380

Weekly

NYSE hi/low

134/78

389/30

New Hi's/Low's

Nasdaq h/l

79/157

258/103

McClellan

Oscillator

-48

-10

McClellanSum

.+750/-1000

717

837

Newsletter

Inv.Intel -Bull:tues

54.6

50.5

Surveys

Bear:-5yrs

18.6

18.6

AAII -Bull :wed.

28.5

35.4

Bear

34.1

26.8

COT:SPX w/w

large/small (net)k

12k/20k

9k/21k

COT:gold comm.hedg

long-short.000

(102k)

(114k)

CEOinsider

selling

68:1?

34:1

off.&bd b/s.vs.

10% holder b/s

180:15

175:30

3-box rev

Bullish%-

66

74

US equity -ICI

Fund Flows

WeekDelay

.9B

MMF flows

Change in $B

(17.7B)

(13.2B)

MargDebt- top (300M)

monthly

466B

FEB.

ETF:mthlyEqty/

Int'l/Bond-$B

1035/397/266

FEB.

2-yr
Tsy Yield: Inflation

0.36%

0.42%

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