Russian Arms Sales in Asia May Be Poised for Trouble

Russia has long been an established international weapons exporter. Russian weapons are present in almost all war zones today, and fill arsenals in states as varied as Poland, Iran, and Venezuela. Mozambique has even put the ubiquitous Russian-designed AK-47 in its flag. According to SIPRI’s 2014 statistics, Moscow remains the second-largest arms exporter in the world, trumped only by the U.S.A.

China’s history of importing Russian military equipment is not new. Since the proclamation of the People’s Republic in 1949, China’s military hardware has basically consisted of either imported Soviet/Russian equipment or licensed-produced knockoffs. Although this was supplemented by hardware from other states–notably Israel–following Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, Russia is still China’s largest external provider of military equipment. (As an example, Beijing is set to purchase Russia’s S-400 Triumf missile defense system.)

All of this bodes ill for Russia’s arms exports to India. In response, Russian arms manufacturers are attempting to make up the decline by selling to other Asian states. According to Pyotr Topychkanov at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Russia has a chance to expand deals with Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, Topychkanov adds:

I wouldn’t be overly optimistic regarding Russia’s opportunities in Asia. Oil exporters like Vietnam have realized their need to review military demands, and other arms exporters are becoming more aggressive in the arms market, and flexible in establishing contacts with nations they previously viewed as unacceptable trade partners.

Russia has been one of the dominant arms exporter in the Asia-Pacific. Many of Moscow’s products are still in high demand, and it will remain an important supplier for the foreseeable future. However, Russia will have to contend with the fact that other states are either developing their own weapons or diversifying their weapon imports.