MLB Cheat Sheet: April 19th

Wednesday brings us an 11-game slate with some big-name pitchers on the board. With Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner looking to dominate lineups tonight, we’ll dive into all the aspects of this slate. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – Clayton Kershaw ($13,800) – Kershaw and the Dodgers are MONSTER favorites on this slate tonight. He’s faced this Rockies club once already this season, but take it with a grain of salt as that game took place at Coors Field. In that start, Kershaw went six innings allowing four runs on eight hits with a 6:0 K:BB ratio. His two home starts have been more Kershaw-esque, pitching 15.1 innings allowing three runs on six hits with a 16:1 K:BB ratio. Kershaw is always an attractive option at home but be ready to pay a hefty price, as it will gobble up 27% of your salary cap.

Highest Totals

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds – 9.5 runs – Only one game has a projected run total of at least 9.5 tonight, and that belongs to the Orioles and Reds. Many of us (myself included) were hoping for big things from this Orioles lineup last night but were left with much to be desired. The Orioles have the second-highest run total of the night at 4.6 runs, as they’ll face Amir Garrett, who has been fantastic in two starts this season.

As for someone who hasn’t been fantastic, Ubaldo Jimenez is averaging 0.4 FPPG in his first two starts of the season. Yup, you read that correctly, 0.4. In 8.2 innings, Jimenez has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits with a 6:3 K:BB ratio. With the offensive barrage the Reds put out last night against Kevin Gausman, you have to believe they can bring some of that heat tonight against Jimenez. For as bad as he’s been, Jimenez does keep the ball in the yard, which is something worth thinking about when making your stacks tonight.

* Tonight’s game between the Indians and Twins has been postponed due to rain.

Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins– 9 runs – The Indians and Twins will battle it out once again tonight at Target Field. The Indians have a 4.7 projected run total tonight as they take on Adalberto Mejia. He’s been struggling with his control in the early going, owning a 4:5 K:BB ratio in just 6.2 innings this season. When you tie that in with how well this Indians club can hit left-handed pitching, it makes sense why they have one of the highest run totals of the night. That is however if they can fit this game in.

Weather Concerns

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins (Target Field) – Rain is in the forecast for the entire night without any real windows of it clearing up. I’d be surprised if they could fit this game in, but it’s worth checking in later today.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

Kauffman Stadium – San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals – Kauffman Stadium checks in as our top ballpark for hitters tonight. In 2016, all offensive categories were favored here except home runs.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Now that we have that out of the way, I like Archer tonight, at home, against the Tigers. Archer is the complete opposite of where he was in 2016, amassing an average of 21.8 FPPG in three starts with an 18:6 K:BB ratio. He’ll face a Tigers team that owns a 24.1 K% and a .317 wOBA against righties thus far. Unless people are swayed toward Kershaw, Archer should be a fairly popular pick tonight across the board, but I think he should be able to pull out a nice outing tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Hanley Ramirez – Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays – $4,100 – We haven’t seen the power from Ramirez as of yet, but I do like this potential against Francisco Liriano tonight. Ramirez crushed lefties last season to the tune of a .453 wOBA with a .677 SLG and a .420 OBP. Liriano allowed 21 of his 26 total home runs to righties last season with 10 of those coming at home.

Save Big by Drafting…

Trey Mancini – Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds – $3,400 – People may shy away from the Orioles bats tonight after their poor performance yesterday and the numbers Amir Garrett has posted to this point. Garrett has not pitched at home yet this season and I think we’ll see a different side of him tonight. Mancini has quietly mashed four home runs already and is averaging 10.8 FPPG in the early going. At $3,400, you can’t go wrong here for someone that should be low owned across the board.

Stack Em Up

Houston Astros vs. L.A. Angels (J.C. Ramirez) The Astros are slated to score five runs tonight, which is the highest total across the board. They’ll face off against Ramirez, who will make his second start of the season, mixed in with a few appearances out of the bullpen. That first start didn’t go so smooth, lasting just five innings allowing five runs on four hits with a 3:2 K:BB ratio. The Astros can mash at home and I don’t expect tonight to be much different

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.

Latest Headlines From

Jacob deGrom • SP • NYM

Jacob deGrom continues late surge for Cy Young

Last season, deGrom ($11,500) ran away with the National League Cy Young. He had a historic season and his 1.70 ERA was one of the best marks in the history of the league. That kind of performance is tough to replicate, but he's been on the mark since the All-Star break. He has a sub 2.00 ERA in the second half of the season and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 13 starts. Tonight's performance was one of his best of the year. Pitching against the Dodgers, the best team in the National League, deGrom worked seven shutout innings and tallied eight strikeouts. He finished with 29.35 DKFP and could be on his way to back to back Cy Young Awards.

Eduardo Rodriguez strikes out 12 in pitchers' duel

Rodriguez ($10,300) went back-and-forth dueling with Aaron Nola ($9,500) tonight. Both allowed just a single run and the game came down to the bullpens. Neither starter got a decision although Rodriguez had the edge in the department we care about, fantasy points. The dozen strikeouts for E-Rod are a season-high and he scored 33.4 DKFP even though he didn't get the win bonus. On the other side of the game, Nola was no slouch. He pitched seven innings, striking out nine batters against a potent Boston offense and scored 27.55 DKFP. The lose for Philly was costly and moves it 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. The Phillies need a near-flawless finish to the season to clinch a playoff birth.

Brett Gardner homers twice as Yankees roll 13-3

The Yankees continue to slug their way to the postseason and homered five times on their way to a 13-3 rout in Toronto. Gardner ($4,100; 39 DKFP) was the only player with multiple home runs, going 3-for-5 with two home runs and five RBI. Luke Voit ($4,600; 29 DKFP) went 2-for-3 with a home run, Gleyber Torres ($4,800; 20 DKFP) went 1-for-3 with a home run, and Mike Ford ($4,100; 16 DKFP) got in on the action coming off the bench with a home run in his only at-bat. The Yankees have 20 homers in their past six games and 285 on the season. They have already broken their record for most team home runs from last season and are ahead of the Twins in a race to set the new mark.