Aikman Efficiency Ratings

FINAL 2014 AIKMAN RATINGS
With their easy Week 17 win over the Raiders, the Broncos pulled out their first Aikman Combined championship since we began tracking it in 2008.

The Seahawks were the Aikman Combined regular season leader last year – and emerged as the Super Bowl champion. The Aikmans successfully predicted the Super Bowl match-up last year, as the Broncos were second with 167.4.

So Denver led the NFL this season in Aikman Combined, even though its score fell slightly to 164.5. Denver’s offense dropped from 99.8 in 2013 to 91.2, but the defense’s score rose from 67.6 (21st) to 73.3 (9th).

In Aikman Offense, the Packers closed out their first title of the Aaron Rodgers era, but with the lowest score for a leader since 2009.

In Aikman Defense, the Texans never led at any point of the season except after Week 17, as near-certain NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt and his teammates benefitted from two December games with Jacksonville to edge the Lions.

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One thing that stands out about 2014 is the closeness of the NFL as measured by the Aikman Combined.

The score of 164.5 by the Broncos that led the Aikman Combined is the lowest ever to lead the category in our now 20-year history. The previous low leader was also the Broncos – in 1997.

The Broncos were one of six teams clustered within five points of each other – including all five of the 12-4 teams plus the Ravens, who also made the playoffs. It all points to a close and competitive postseason.

Of the top 12 teams in the Aikman Combined Ratings, 10 made the playoffs, with the exceptions being the Texans and Chiefs, who were each in the postseason (if results had stayed the same) in the last hour of their season before being excluded by Baltimore.

The two teams in the playoffs that did not make the “Aikman” playoffs are the Cardinals, who faded to 17th down the stretch after Carson Palmer was hurt, and the Panthers, no surprise with a ranking of 20th.

At the bottom of the Aikman Combined, one can find the two 2-14 teams, the Titans and the Buccaneers.

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The NFL’s annual Aikman Offense number of 80.4 marked the 5th consecutive season to set a record. But it was negligibly up from 80.2 in 2013, so perhaps the NFL’s offensive explosion has plateaued.

The Aikman Mean for offense and defense was set at a historically balanced number of 75.0 back in 2004, but changes in the game have sent the Offense Mean above 80 while the Defense Mean has fallen into the 60s.

We do note the greater spread among Aikman Offenses, with a range of 24.2 points between the top (Packers at 92.1) and bottom (Jaguars at 67.9). In Aikman Defense, the range is only 19.0 from the top (Texans at 77.8) to the bottom (Saints at 58.8).