Is the Apple Watch a success? Analysts differ

posted by Alan F. / Oct 21, 2015, 5:30 PM

The Apple Watch got off to a fast start, according to Apple CEO Tim Cook. During the summer, the executive said that the timepiece had a better initial quarter of sales than the iPhone and iPad had, when those two devices were first launched. But on Wall Street, analysts have a differing opinion about Apple's first smartwatch. A survey of 17 analysts produced a wide range of estimates from a low of 2.5 million sold last quarter, to a high of 6 million units sold.

The Apple Watch is different than the Apple iPhone in the sense that Apple breaks out sales of the handset every quarter. Apple thus far, has been mum on sales of its timepiece. According to research firm IDC, Apple was second in the wearables market to Fitbit last quarter, with 3.6 million in shipments and a 20% share. Fitbit delivered 4.4 million units, according to the researcher.

Cook says that sales are improving each quarter. "We shipped a lot the first quarter...then last quarter we shipped even more," said the CEO. "I can predict this quarter we will ship even more." The executive isn't the only one who sees sales picking up for the Apple Watch. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that sales for the product will slowly build. Munster is on the low end of last quarter's predictions, believing that 2.5 million sold over the three months. But he sees 14 million selling for all of 2016, with a surge to 40 million expected in 2017.

The recent update to watchOS 2 might help, as it allows for apps to be stored natively on the watch. This should allow them to open faster, without having to be kept on a paired iPhone. The addition of third party app information on the watch face might make the Apple Watch more useful, and Apple Pay support could lead to more purchases of the timepiece from those who like using the mobile payment service on their iPhone.

Posts: 6033; Member since: Aug 06, 2013

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 6:41 PM 0

Posts: 31037; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

When I played with it in the Apple Store, it worked just fine. My sleeves would only interfere with the heart rate monitor, which I'd never use, and would immediately turn off. I may wait for the 2nd gen, but definitely plan to get one. My wife is all in, hers will be an xmas present this year.

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 7:03 PM 0

Posts: 6033; Member since: Aug 06, 2013

Alright, cool, I remember that if the watch didn't read a heart rate it wouldn't work, I guess they changed that. I think you should wait for the second gen, you've already waited long enough, what's another few short months?

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 7:07 PM 0

Posts: 31037; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

True, I'm just not one of the ones that dislikes it. I think it's a good device, but gen 2 Apple devices are always much better. I almost bought one the day after the 6S came out, but I held off.
People talk smack about it, but when you go into the store, try it on, and use it...it's pretty nice. It's got some cool features. I'm actually not sure if they fixed the tattoo issue, never read up on it.

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 7:11 PM 0

Posts: 403; Member since: Dec 26, 2014

Have you tried any of the Gear S2s, Darkk? I managed to actually try on both at two different BestBuys a few days ago, and they both felt and looked very nice on my thinner wrists.
I also got to see an Apple Watch at them, and the digital crown felt very nice to scroll and use. The size I saw was also nice and compact, and I'm sure it also wouldn't look oversized on my wrist.
The Gears' bezel was clicky when turned, so that was nice feedback. It also looked and felt much more sci-fi to turn, which is a plus in my case.
What do you think of them?

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 8:12 PM 0

Posts: 31037; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 8:55 PM 0

Posts: 941; Member since: Oct 23, 2013

If there's any smartwatch i'd consider then might be Asus Zenwatch 2 cheap and optimized not to mention it was beautiful and support both Android & iOS - a good starter for anyone who never own smartwatch.

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 10:44 PM 0

Posts: 2817; Member since: Oct 03, 2012

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 5:55 PM 13

Posts: 679; Member since: May 27, 2015

Had one and returned it. Do they track how many people bought one and return it because it looks ugly? I've also owned the Moto 360 V1 and Gear Fit, returned them all. I have hope for the S2 Classic.
No one makes money with Apple™

Posts: 170; Member since: Apr 22, 2010

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 6:23 PM 1

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Well shipped is s old, even if it was shipped to a retailer.
I have not seen a Apple Watch beyond retail stores.
I see Fitbits, Gear Fits, Gear S/Gear 2 and I finally saw a Pebble.
I expected to see more Apple Watches, due to the band colors.

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 10:39 PM 0

Posts: 363; Member since: Aug 20, 2015

Apple have never planned to make a watch.
All those rumors was made by Wall Street wanting to create new category. Of course the let the rumors about Apple Watch 'coming', because they know the power of the apple's zombie propaganda and media.
Apple was basically forced to make a watch. Having no idea what to do.

Posts: 1276; Member since: Mar 22, 2014

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 7:58 PM 0

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Tim said way before launch of the watch that they would not break out sales. I'm not sure why analyst keep thinking its a bust because they are not talking numbers. If the watch can sell 5 to 6 million for the year, that would be about 5 times the amount of the original iPhone and iPad sold. I think people forget that the iPhone didn't come out the gate selling 10 million phones over a weekend. Therefore, they think the watch is a flop.

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 8:17 PM 0

Posts: 2383; Member since: Jul 18, 2010

It's called installed base. Because of how many people already have iOS/Apple devices, coupled with the walled garden approach which entices users to stay in the ecosystem, these are the figures the analysts are factoring in.
It's probably not a "flop", but because it may have missed an estimate by a quarter of a percent, there are analysts that always predict doom and gloom. Which the media in turn likes to run with to get fanboys wriled up for views.

posted on Oct 21, 2015, 8:37 PM 1

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

The official word I thought was, the initial rollout was l I w, so Apple kept it exclusive to them, because of very limited quanities, due to production issues.
Now I guess they h a very enough to ship to retailers and carriers..

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