Wednesday, August 05, 2009

It's Far From Over reads today's headline from the Economist. Many dignitaries failed to attend Ahmadinejad's inauguration today. And the Ayatollah pulled his had away from a kiss, causing Ahmadinejad to kiss his shoulder instead. D'oh!

My guess, as I have previously stated, is that the Ayatollah was forced to accept Ahmadinejad to appease the military and the secret service. Street protests flared again today which is also the 40th day after then killing of Neda, the final day of Iranian funeral rites.

My suspiction of the Ayatollah's subjugation was further bolstered by a recent story on This American Life where Iranian journalist, Omid Memarian described is interrogation and "confession". After he was released, he met with the Ayatollah and his men and the seemed genuinely surprised by how he was treated. The suggestion was that the Bashi, the foreign terrorists that are paid to do Iran's dirty work inside Iran, are really running the show, which is very frightening.

Obama is doing the right thing to be courteous with Iran. If things continue as they are, the country may collapse in on itself. And as the Economist points out, the internal conflict may weaken Iran's taste for meddling in foreign lands, like say Iraq and Aghanistan.

1 comment:

The worst thing we could do is to try to take advantage of the apparent weakness in Iran now by meddling. That would strengthen hardliners. The best thing we can do is take away the hardliners' argument that the Great Satan is after them by behaving as a normal, rational, country and engaging in normal diplomacy. Bill Clinton's visit to Pyongyang (obviously at the behest of Obama and Mrs. Clinton) will not go unnoticed in Tehran. We must do what we did with the USSR in 1989 - convince the military that there is nothing to fear from reformers because they will not be perceived as "weak" or exploited by the west. Rather, they will be rewarded with cooperation. They must be convinced that the better bargaining position is not to appear a strong bully, but to appear conciliatory.