Study: Global methanol demand to rise by 80% in decade, led by China

China will be the major driver of the demand increase, while at the same time, the methanol market in North America market is undergoing a renaissance of new projects.

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Global methanol demand is set to rise significantly -- from
60.7 million tons in 2013 to more than 109 million tons in
2023 -- with an average annual growth rate of 6%, according
to new IHS research released Friday.

China is expected to be the major driver of this demand
increase, while at the same time, the North American methanol
market -- riding the wave of low-cost US shale-derived feedstocks -- is undergoing a
renaissance as new projects deliver significant
capacity additions.

The methanol market is in a period of
rapid transition, especially the North American market, which
is accelerating quickly, thanks in part, to inward Chinese
investment that is taking advantage of the regions
low-cost shale gas resources to feed its derivative
units said Mike Nash, global director of syngas
chemicals at IHS Chemical.

More than 50 million metric tons of global methanol
capacity additions are expected between 2013 and 2023, with
more than 17 [million tons] of that new capacity to be added
in North America during the next decade, he added.
This is more than six times todays output, and
heralds the return of the North American methanol industry as
a production powerhouse.

Methanol is often used in the chemical industry to make
formaldehyde and acetic acid. Additionally, the new
application of methanol-to-olefins (MTO), a development that
has taken root in China, consumes merchant methanol and
converts it into ethylene, propylene and other derivatives.

Methanol can also can be used in a variety of fuels, such as:
direct blending into gasoline, biodiesel, as the gasoline
oxygenate MTBE, as a substitute for propane, as ship bunker
fuel or in fuel cells. Methanol demand into fuel applications
represents a significant upside to methanol demand growth,
according to IHS.

Nash said a tidal wave of new US projects is being announced,
including virtual integration of methanol as a feedstock for derivative plants in
China, and a restart or relocation of old plants, including
two Methanex units, which are in the process of being
completely disassembled, relocated from Chile to Louisiana,
then reassembled and re-started.

According to IHS, Chinas methanol consumption will more
than double from 30 million tons in 2013 to 67.5 million tons
in 2023. The country will address its accelerating demand
growth mostly by the rapidly emerging methanol-to-olefins
(MTO) technology.

Yet, it is expected that domestic production will not be able
to satisfy its growing local demand and, therefore, it will
rely heavily on imports, IHS reports. To satisfy the
countrys rapidly increasing appetite, Chinas
imports are projected to six-fold from more
than 4 million tons in 2013 to almost 25 million tons by
2023.

The growth of MTO plants that are not tied to coal
production is booming on Chinas East Coast, and we
expect that this will have a major impact on the global
methanol market, since the overall economics are
advantaged, said Nash.

For Chinese producers, the economics of creating
olefins from methanol that has been derived from cheap coal
and gas are better than creating olefins using the
traditional, oil-based naphtha route, especially since the
countrys coal industry is located in a remote, Western
area. There they not only have a cost advantage, but they can
also minimize the environmental impact that is a
concern in the region.

According to IHS experts, North America will become a net
exporter of methanol in 2017. This will have a significant
impact on global trade flows, which are likely to be followed
by new pricing dynamics. Northeast Asia, Europe and North America were the
worlds largest importing regions of methanol in 2013, representing more
than 70% of total world import figures.

Europe is expected to increase its
import levels, whereas Northeast Asia imports are forecast to
triple during the period 2013 to 2023.

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At the case that Methanol can also be used in a variety of fuels, it can be used to substitute and avoid natural gas liquefaction and also its high expenses likely 500 million dollars to build an LNG cryogenic plant for 250,000 MT that merely such facilities for LNG can produce 500 MSCFD to 1000MSCFD. Therefore, for that high investment and hazardous operational risk to gasify LNG, it could be cheaper to use methanol as fuel instead LNG and easier operation and lower investment than that. for LNG.

And also the facilites and operations to move methanol are easier and cheaper than natural gas actually