Market research firm Nielsen expects TV ownership to go down between 2011 and …

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I don't watch much TV, but don't worry, I do own one. TV ownership levels are going to drop more and more, though, according to Nielsen's latest report on the "TV Household Universe." Nielsen predicts TV ownership in the US will be down going into next year, from nearly 99 percent in 2011 to just 96.7 percent in 2012. Although this initial decline may just be a blip on the screen, Nielsen acknowledges that consumers are expanding to other audio/video devices for content consumption and may not rely on the TV as much as they once did.

According to Nielsen, several factors may have affected the TV ownership numbers. For example, the digital TV transition from analog occurred in the summer of 2009—this is when TV penetration first began to dip, and "the permanence of this trend was acknowledged in 2010 after the number of TV households did not rebound over time."

The weak economy was also cited as a factor in TV ownership declines—starting in the second quarter of 2009—which especially affected lower-income rural homes. And finally, Nielsen says its data demonstrates that consumers are using more platforms to consume video—mostly to supplement one another, though the younger, more urban demographic of consumers are going without paid TV subscriptions altogether. (This group is usually known as the "cord-cutters," which is a different group than those who don't own TVs, but the two have a tendency to overlap.)

"The media marketplace continues to evolve and become more complex. Some consumers are clearly being driven by the economy to make choices on the media devices they purchase," Nielsen senior VP of insights and analysis Pat McDonough said in a statement. "Others are expanding their equipment to add more audio/video devices to their home. Still others may be deferring a TV purchase or replacing their TV with a computer."

Indeed, TV consumers are increasingly watching TV shows and movies on their computers, tablets, and smartphones, even though the boob tube remains the most popular way to watch. We wouldn't be surprised, though, if those who had already cut the cord to their cable or satellite subscriptions were the ones watching the most video on alternate screens. After all, Netflix can stream to practically every device with a display at this point, and services like iTunes, Amazon Instant Streaming, and Hulu Plus help fill out most of the content that the others lack. Who needs a TV or a cable subscription when you have a laptop or an iPad? (Sports fans, that's who.)

At this point, however, the TV ownership decline is based on speculation about what 2012 will bring as a result of Nielsen's analysis of the market combined with the latest 2010 Census data. The firm points out that its TV ownership estimate also dipped in 1992, only to see TV penetration go through "significant growth" after that. It has been 20 years since then, though, and the video consumption landscape has changed significantly. It's possible that Nielsen's predicted dip for 2012 will follow the same patterns as 1992, but we won't know for sure until some more time has passed—or until someone finds a DeLorean and a Mr. Fusion.

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Jacqui Cheng
Jacqui is an Editor at Large at Ars Technica, where she has spent the last eight years writing about Apple culture, gadgets, social networking, privacy, and more. Emailjacqui@arstechnica.com//Twitter@eJacqui

Well of course TV ownership is going to drop if the world ends in 2012.

On a more serious note, this may be the final year I do paid cable. Most of the shows I watch during the fall/winter seasons are gone or on their last seasons, and the summer shows I tend to watch are available quickly via other formats (Hulu/etc).

If more primetime shows were easily watchable (not this 5 episode nonsense), I would have switched over much sooner, even if I had to pay a nominal fee. Heck, I already maintain my netflix for this very reason.

I just can't even thing about cutting the cord until the quality gets better. Even Netflix HD streaming looks way worse than my cable feed. That doesn't even factor in the lack of surround sound. So even if I could get all the shows that I want (I can't) and the shows I could get are on in a timely fashion (I don't want to wait days, weeks, or months to see stuff), I'm still not willing to trade for the lack of quality.

After literally just talking to Comcast about the early termination of my 2 year $99 a month cable+internet package (they killed it about a year early not me). I once again think about cord cutting, but then I look at my loyal and loving TiVos and can't bear to stop feeding them electrons.

TVs are slowly becoming large computer/device monitors like slugline said. My basement TV is pretty much only for gaming and programming the second TiVo. Most of its content is transfered and watched upstairs.

I haven't owned a TV in nearly a decade. I keep debating it, but my computer monitor is pretty dang good (and reasonably large). I have trouble with the "not better enough" line of thought, and so I keep hesitating on getting a separate TV.

It would be nice for social situations, but otherwise I think I might want to just keep that money for my next planned monitor upgrade.

Even if somebody drops cable/satellite that doesn't necessarily equate to not owning a TV. While I might watch a movie on the iPad or computer from time to time I'll still turn to the TV when I want to sit back and watch. I don't see many people dumping a 50" for a 10" display.

Trends are definitely changes but there will be a place for the big screen for the foreseeable future.

I don't pay for cable but I still get the 24-hour news channel and it's pretty much all I watch. I find that it's much more annoying to get that kind of thing from the computer - you have to actively search for it, play it, wait for the Flash player to load, wait for it to buffer, and then the quality is crappy.

As long as TV is as easy as it currently is (press button, instant show!) it's going to persist.

As for the actual physical "TV" device, I think the distinction between "TV" and "computer monitor" is becoming increasingly blurred. If you count either as a valid "display device" I bet that most people who are getting rid of TVs are simply replacing them with computers. In fact many people are getting TVs to replace their TV monitors - going the other way!

50" screen. Can't equal that on a PC or smartphone, thanks. I don't do cable but good lord is it nice for movies!

I do think that the 2 sets per house average may decline though (which is fine, how many screens do you need in a home?) but I don't see TVs actually becoming a niche product anytime soon...like in my lifetime.

I haven't paid for cable TV since last century but I still have a damn big television. It mystifies me that people are satisfied watching movies on computer screens or iPads. If you've ever watched Lawrence of Arabia on your iPhone then you make me sigh.

I bought a bigass tv for less than the cost of 6 months of cable and only use it to watch hulu/netflix/pirate rips. I refuse to pay the better part of $100/month for censored movies, ridiculous numbers of ads, and dozens of channels full of garbage that I'll never watch.

I still can't imagine a day where a house exists without a t.v. Though yeah, I can see where multiple t.v.s per household might not be a continuing trend.

*waves*

I don't own one, and my gf doesn't own one.

I used to have one, sold it to my brother when I was moving (partly because I didn't want to haul a 200lb tube TV around), figured I'd buy a flat panel one, and... just haven't gotten around to it in the last year and a half.

I can't say I miss it much either. I watch a few shows streaming, but even with those I'm badly behind - we've preferred doing things like talking walks & reading. Or coding up interesting projects in the evening.

I just can't even thing about cutting the cord until the quality gets better. Even Netflix HD streaming looks way worse than my cable feed. That doesn't even factor in the lack of surround sound. So even if I could get all the shows that I want (I can't) and the shows I could get are on in a timely fashion (I don't want to wait days, weeks, or months to see stuff), I'm still not willing to trade for the lack of quality.

Netflix has 720p and 1080p broadcasts, as well as 5.1 surround.

My guess is you haven't tried in a while, have a < 5 Mbps broadband connection, or have sub-par Netflix playback equipment.

I've upgraded my TV after dropping cable. As simply a large display, TV's still pretty much the only option. Tuner hardware is probably cheap enough that there's no point in manufacturing a 50", non-TV display.

If it were not for the crappy Indian soaps my family insists on watching every night (don't have a rolleyes icon big enough for that), I would cut cable service entirely. There are only three western shows I have an interest in watching, and I could just get them off iTunes, Amazon or Netflix.

Though Indian soaps are available on YouTube, the quality is horrendous, and finding episodes is a pain, since they are not well organized by posters.

So I continue paying for service.

Honestly, TV in general is a waste of time, Fines for a few hours out of the week, but multiple hours every night just rots the brain, IMO. Especially Indian soaps.

So there are two totally different issues being talked about in the article and here. “Cord-cutting” is getting rid of your cable, and “TV-ownership” is, well, actually owning a TV (which I assume includes all large-screen plasmas and LCDs).

There will always be a distinction and a need for “TVs” (i.e. a screen in the living room) and a “monitor” (i.e. a screen in the home office, on or in front of a desk). Until I can somehow accomplish all my home office tasks (including working on stuff while surrounded by papers) in my living room, I will not get rid of my screen in my home office. It’s nice to have that distinction between a work area and a leisure area (and the fact that my wife/kid wants to be able to watch TV while I am manipulating spreadsheets).

I can almost guarantee that anyone who doesn’t own a “TV” (again, this means a screen in front of a couch versus a screen in front of an office chair) is single. And this isn’t slamming them, but how the heck am I supposed to cram my family in front of my computer screen to watch a movie/sporting event/whatever. Oh, and how am I supposed to have my buddies over to watch the UFC pay-per-view?

Someone already mentioned the “social” aspect of TV in an earlier post. I would go further and say that it’s more likely that “computer monitors” disappear, and large-screens rule the day. But for the near future, we’ll continue with both.

As for “cord-cutting”, a completely separate issue, I would do this in a heartbeat, except I like watching my sporting events live, in glorious HD. And sometimes with friends over. And that’s just not currently possible without the cord.

Yeah, not everyone is going to own a TV, because A) not everyone has a living room; and, B) people without family and friends that come over to watch stuff, and who don’t like watching sports, don’t need a TV.

I think the bigger story here is the “cord-cutting”. A lot of people no longer have need of cable/satellite service. People still want TVs.

Does a projector count as a TV? I don't see myself buying a TV again, if it ain't better than a monitor, and it doesn't offer a better group experience than a projector, why would I bother? The only way to save this for me is the integrated video stuff like googletv effort. A simple and useful implimentation of that changes things enough that my other half doesn't have to mess with "that %!#@ing electronic crap", that is the only sneaky way they can get me to buy a tv again.

In browsing through the comments here it sounds like it's the big content business model that is propping up TV as it currently occupies the home entertainment landscape not necessarily end customer preference. I can tell you that my cable company doesn't offer me the kind of flexibility that I'd like to have. Luckily for them the vast majority of their customers aren't as aware of the possibilities as the Ars readership is. On the other hand that was true of the music content industry a decade or so ago. Look how well that worked out for them.

Perhaps in this sense, they mean "TV" as something more than a display...in which case that's been going down since the cable box was invented. I don't see us all going to 20-ish" screens just because we don't use cable boxes anymore. Besides, when a display hits 30", is it really a "monitor" anymore?

I can't see getting rid of our TV's, but we did cut the cable/satellite off last year and haven't missed it a bit. Streaming netflix, streaming video from our network, and Hulu+ ensure that we have more than enough garbage to keep us entertained.

In browsing through the comments here it sounds like it's the big content business model that is propping up TV as it currently occupies the home entertainment landscape not necessarily end customer preference. I can tell you that my cable company doesn't offer me the kind of flexibility that I'd like to have. Luckily for them the vast majority of their customers aren't as aware of the possibilities as the Ars readership is. On the other hand that was true of the music content industry a decade or so ago. Look how well that worked out for them.

I don't reckon we'll get rid of a TV in the foreseeable future. We're not movie addicts (we hardly ever watch them) and there's NO internet alternative to TV for LOCAL news broadcasts three times a day (in our area, anyway). That's the short of it.

In the "middle-or-longer of it" is the laziness of a prescheduled set of broadcast shows, without the need to go surf through a list of memorized titles and guess at possible new series titles. So kick me. I don't enjoy watching TV on a laptop, and I don't care to buy all the equipment for a PC-driven large screen (where's the gain in that?)

Wow, we weren't allowed to have TV's in our bedrooms when I was growing up, and I think my parents were right on about that seeing as now that I do have one in my bedroom, I loose a little more sleep than I should. Maybe that will be the office tv....

Don't know how I'll handle the "tv-watching" when I have kids, cause it won't be TV's to worry about, but phones, tabs, and other computers in kids rooms.

I don't reckon we'll get rid of a TV in the foreseeable future. We're not movie addicts (we hardly ever watch them) and there's NO internet alternative to TV for LOCAL news broadcasts three times a day (in our area, anyway). That's the short of it.

In the "middle-or-longer of it" is the laziness of a prescheduled set of broadcast shows, without the need to go surf through a list of memorized titles and guess at possible new series titles. So kick me. I don't enjoy watching TV on a laptop, and I don't care to buy all the equipment for a PC-driven large screen (where's the gain in that?)

I would suspect you already have all the equipment if you have a flat panel tv and desktop or laptop. All you need is the VGA or HDMI cable (depending on the ports) and possibly a media center remote to control the 'puter from the couch (optional if you have a wireless keybd/mouse).

That's the only way I watch "TV" anymore.

edit: Oh, and for local shows you could still use the built in tuner in the TV, or optionally plug a tuner into the computer (they even make plug and play USB ones) and use media center or like software to watch.

Who needs a TV or a cable subscription when you have a laptop or an iPad? (Sports fans, that's who.)

I need a TV despite having both a laptop and an iPad, and I'm not a sports fan. Well, "need" may be a strong word, but I'd *much* rather watch video entertainment on my 60" TV than my laptop, iPad or even computer screen. I'd also much rather watch it from the comfort of my couch than sitting at my desk, and I have no interest in holding a laptop or iPad to watch anything longer than a few minutes regardless of where I'm sitting.

For me at least, I just don't see "convergence" of computer and TV happening. The couch is not a comfortable place to do anything that requires a keyboard and mouse, and the office/desk is both less comfortable for long-form video watching and has much less room for screen size.

If I ever add a giant TV to my collection of computer monitors (some fairly sizable) it will be used as just another monitor. TV (assuming that means satellite or cable) has so little to offer in the way of beauty or even entertainment, certainly nothing that can't be found cheaper and more easily elsewhere.

I just can't even thing about cutting the cord until the quality gets better. Even Netflix HD streaming looks way worse than my cable feed. That doesn't even factor in the lack of surround sound. So even if I could get all the shows that I want (I can't) and the shows I could get are on in a timely fashion (I don't want to wait days, weeks, or months to see stuff), I'm still not willing to trade for the lack of quality.

Netflix has 720p and 1080p broadcasts, as well as 5.1 surround.

My guess is you haven't tried in a while, have a < 5 Mbps broadband connection, or have sub-par Netflix playback equipment.

I've tried on my media center, xbox 360, and sony blu-ray player. I have a 30 Mb/s internet connection. Netflix HD is at such a low bitrate (and I believe only the PS3 has 5.1 right now) that it looks like total crap. It's much worse than cable, and I honestly prefer the look of upconverted DVD. They can raise the resolution all they want, but until they fix the bit rate it's going to be an issue. I have the same problem with Hulu as well. It just doesn't look good at all on anything about 40". I can tolerate it when watching on a 32" TV from 20' away in my bedroom, but for anything more than that it is unwatchable.

I've tried on my media center, xbox 360, and sony blu-ray player. I have a 30 Mb/s internet connection. Netflix HD is at such a low bitrate (and I believe only the PS3 has 5.1 right now) that it looks like total crap. It's much worse than cable, and I honestly prefer the look of upconverted DVD. They can raise the resolution all they want, but until they fix the bit rate it's going to be an issue. I have the same problem with Hulu as well. It just doesn't look good at all on anything about 40". I can tolerate it when watching on a 32" TV from 20' away in my bedroom, but for anything more than that it is unwatchable.

Huh, I wonder if you're throttled or have some other issues (your regional netflix CDN?). I'm in florida on a 12mbps uverse line and netflix HD looks nearly blu-ray quality when it's running full on -- this is on a 50in Plasma with a native res of 1366x768 through a win7 media center. So the screen isn't full HD, but I don't think it's bad on my 23" 1920x1080 either.

Sometimes it does drop for unknown reasons, but usually rebuffers quickly and goes back to pretty-crisp.

I don't reckon we'll get rid of a TV in the foreseeable future. We're not movie addicts (we hardly ever watch them) and there's NO internet alternative to TV for LOCAL news broadcasts three times a day (in our area, anyway). That's the short of it.

In the "middle-or-longer of it" is the laziness of a prescheduled set of broadcast shows, without the need to go surf through a list of memorized titles and guess at possible new series titles. So kick me. I don't enjoy watching TV on a laptop, and I don't care to buy all the equipment for a PC-driven large screen (where's the gain in that?)

Cutting the satellite tv "cord" was not as bad as we thought. It sounds like we had similar habits as your family. I switched to getting news from Google and link to stories of interest. Weather from local news website. Movies from Netflix ($7.99/month), Redbox ($1) and Apple tv ($90). We don't miss those 250 Dish channels where we only watched about 10 anyway.

The $90/ months savings from cutting the satellite "cord" for us, is being put to great use.Good luck.

Doing my part on the TV front. I have 1 TV per person in my household. 22in LCD LED in the kitchen, 22in LCD used as a computer monitor, 46in LCD LED in the basement, and a 32in LCD upstairs in the family sitting area.

I do not however pay for TV subscriptions anymore. Been almost exactly a year since I cut the cord and couldn't be happier with my decision to do so.