Analytical Method

The Analytical Method is a generic process combining the power of the Scientific Method with the use of formal process to solve any type of problem. It has these nine steps:

1. Identify the problem to solve.

2. Choose an appropriate process. (THE KEY STEP)

3. Use
the process to hypothesize analysis or solution elements.

4.
Design an experiment(s) to test the hypothesis.

5.
Perform the experiment(s).

6.
Accept, reject, or modify the hypothesis.

7.
Repeat steps 3, 4, 5, and 6 until the hypothesis
is accepted.

8. Implement the solution.

9. Continuously improve the process as opportunities arise.

Why this is important

Use of the Analytical Method is critical to solving the sustainability problem because it appears that current processes are inadequate. They are intuitive, simple, and based on how activists approach everyday problems.

Application example

The key step in the Analytical Method is selecting an appropriate process. Suppose you are starting out on solving a tough problem. That's the first step. You have identified the problem to solve.

The next step is to choose an appropriate process. Depending on the problem it should have varous amounts of these features. At a minimum, the process should:

Elaboration

Let's derive the Analytical Method from scratch. We start with the problem solivng process all of us use for everyday problems. It's a simple, quickly performed procedure that works just fine for easy problems. It's performed so fast it's intuitive and we seldom think about it. Its main steps are:

The Intuitive Method

1. Identify the problem to solve.

2. Quickly intuitively find the solution. (THE WEAK STEP)

3. Implement the solution.

What's missing? Analysis. There's no analysis step, causing step two to be weak.

The Intuitive Method is the norm in environmentalism. Environmentalists do analyze. But what they are analyzing is not the problem as a whole. It's tiny pieces of the problem, like R&D for new forms of alternative energy or what's the best way to reduce a certain form of pollution.

These are superficial solutions. They attempt to solve intermediate causes of the problem. Superficial solutions are intuitively derived from a review of an intermediate cause of interest. For example, too much burning of fossil fuel is seen as a problem to solve. Its solution is switching to forms of alternative energy like solar and wind power. But what is the deeper cause of too much burning of fossil fuel? Why isn't the system already self-correcting, since we now know burning of fossil fuel causes climate change? Analysis questions like these are needed, so we can find the root causes. Fixing the root causes will ripple up the causal chain and fix the intermediate causes the root causes were causing.

So let's add an analysis step:

A Vastly Better Method

1. Identify the problem to solve.

2. Perform an analysis.
(KEY STEP)

3. Develop a solution based on the analysis.

4. Implement the solution.

This raises a question: How do we perform a high quality analysis? The only way science and business have found to do that reliably is by using a process that defines how the analysis should be done. So let's add a select-a-process step:

An Almost Good Enough Method

1. Identify the problem to solve.

2. Choose an appropriate process to perform the analysis.
(KEY STEP)

3. Execute the process. Its output is a high quality analysis.

4. Develop a solution based on the analysis.

5. Implement the solution.

This raises a further question: How do we choose an appropriate process?

That question was answered definitively by the invention of the Scientific Method by Galileo and Francis Bacon in the 14th and 15th centuries. The Scientific Method is the great granddaddy of all modern problem solving processes. It has these five amazingly simple but powerful steps:

So we don't have to choose a process at the highest appropriate level of abstraction. We already have one: the Scientific Method. Let's incorporate it into the five steps we had earlier:

The Analytical Method

1. Identify the problem to solve.

2. Choose an appropriate process. (THE KEY STEP)

3. Use
the process to hypothesize analysis or solution elements.

4.
Design an experiment(s) to test the hypothesis.

5.
Perform the experiment(s).

6.
Accept, reject, or modify the hypothesis.

7.
Repeat steps 3, 4, 5, and 6 until the hypothesis
is accepted.

8. Implement the solution.

9. Continuously improve the process as opportunities arise.

We've also added the last step of continuous process improvement. This is mandatory until you've solved the same type of problem many times. Then your process will have matured.

This gives us the nine steps of the Analytical Method. All scientifically based problem solving approaches use the Analytical Method. By listing its steps we can see exactly where we need to improve to perform it well. The crux is usually step 2, choose an appropriate process to use the Scientific Method to analyze and develop a solution to the problem.

The Scientific Method is arguably the most significant invention since the invention of agriculture. Before it was invented, Homo sapiens had no reliable way to test new knowledge. Unsound and sound principles mixed freely because no one could tell the difference. That's why bleeding was widely used in medicine. It's why science was called alchemy. It's why so called scientists searched for the "philosopher's stone," which could turn base materials into gold.

But once the Scientific Method was invented, everything changed. The invention of new reliable knowledge accelerated by several orders of magnitude. The result was the Scientific Revolution, which was followed by the Industrial Revolution, which ultimately created the page you are reading now.

Analytical Methods Journal

Use of a sufficiently powerful Analytical Method is so crucial to scientific problem solving that in March 2009 a new journal was announced: Analytical Methods. This is "A peer-reviewed journal highlighting the advancement of analytical technologies for wider application by the international scientific community."

Despite the wording, here "analytical method" means composition analysis of compounds of interest, such as food, archelogical artifacts, forensic work, the medical industry, and so on. But the concept has much broader application.

Are you as concerned as we are about the rise of populust authoritarians like Donald Trump? Have you noticed that democracy is unable to solve important problems like climate change, war, and poverty? If so this film series is for you!

Why is democracy in crisis? One intermediate cause is a weakened Voter Feedback Loop. Powerful root cause forces are working to weaken the loop.

The most eye-opening article on the site since it was written in December 2005. More people have contacted us about this easy to read paper and the related Dueling Loops videos than anything else on the site.

Do you every wonder why the sustainability problem is so impossibly hard to solve? It's because of the phenomenon of change resistance. The system itself, and not just individual social agents, is strongly resisting change. Why this is so, its root causes, and several potential solutions are presented.

The analysis was performed over a seven year period from 2003 to 2010. The results are summarized in the Summary of Analysis Results, the top of which is shown below:

Click on the table for the full table and a high level discussion of analysis results.

The Universal Causal Chain

This is the solution causal chain present in all problems. Popular approaches to solving the sustainability problem see only what's obvious: the black arrows. This leads to using superficial solutions to push on low leverage points to resolve intermediate causes.

Popular solutions are superficial because they fail to see into the fundamental layer, where the complete causal chain runs to root causes. It's an easy trap to fall into because it intuitively seems that popular solutions like renewable energy and strong regulations should solve the sustainability problem. But they can't, because they don't resolve the root causes.

In the analytical approach, root cause analysis penetrates the fundamental layer to find the well hidden red arrow. Further analysis finds the blue arrow.Fundamental solution elements are then developed to create the green arrow which solves the problem. For more see Causal Chain in the glossary.

This is no different from what the ancient Romans did. It’s a strategy of divide and conquer. Subproblems like these are several orders of magnitude easier to solve because you are no longer trying (in vain) to solve them simultaneously without realizing it. This strategy has changed millions of other problems from insolvable to solvable, so it should work here too.

For example, multiplying 222 times 222 in your head is for most of us impossible. But doing it on paper, decomposing the problem into nine cases of 2 times 2 and then adding up the results, changes the problem from insolvable to solvable.

Change resistance is the tendency for a system to resist change even when a surprisingly large amount of force is applied.

Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem, because if the system is resisting change then none of the other subproblems are solvable. Therefore this subproblem must be solved first. Until it is solved, effort to solve the other three subproblems is largely wasted effort.

The root cause of successful change resistance appears to be effective deception in the political powerplace. Too many voters and politicians are being deceived into thinking sustainability is a low priority and need not be solved now.

The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We need to inoculate people against deceptive false memes because once people are infected by falsehoods, it’s very hard to change their minds to see the truth.

Life form improper coupling occurs when two social life forms are not working together in harmony.

In the sustainability problem, large for-profit corporations are not cooperating smoothly with people. Instead, too many corporations are dominating political decision making to their own advantage, as shown by their strenuous opposition to solving the environmental sustainability problem.

The root cause appears to be mutually exclusive goals. The goal of the corporate life form is maximization of profits, while the goal of the human life form is optimization of quality of life, for those living and their descendents. These two goals cannot be both achieved in the same system. One side will win and the other side will lose. Guess which side is losing?

The high leverage point for resolving the root cause follows easily. If the root cause is corporations have the wrong goal, then the high leverage point is to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.

The world’s solution model for solving important problems like sustainability, recurring wars, recurring recessions, excessive economic inequality, and institutional poverty has drifted so far it’s unable to solve the problem.

The root cause appears to be low quality of governmental political decisions. Various steps in the decision making process are not working properly, resulting in inability to proactively solve many difficult problems.

This indicates low decision making process maturity. The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise the maturity of the political decision making process.

In the environmental proper coupling subproblem the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. Environmental impact from economic system growth has exceeded the capacity of the environment to recycle that impact.

This subproblem is what the world sees as the problem to solve. The analysis shows that to be a false assumption, however. The change resistance subproblem must be solved first.

The root cause appears to be high transaction costs for managing common property (like the air we breath). This means that presently there is no way to manage common property efficiently enough to do it sustainably.

The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to allow new types of social agents (such as new types of corporations) to appear, in order to radically lower transaction costs.

Solutions

There must be a reason popular solutions are not working.

Given the principle that all problems arise from their root causes, the reason popular solutions are not working (after over 40 years of millions of people trying) is popular solutions do not resolve root causes.

This is Thwink.org’s most fundamental insight.

Summary of Solution Elements

Using the results of the analysis as input, 12 solutions elements were developed. Each resolves a specific root cause and thus solves one of the four subproblems, as shown below:

Click on the table for a high level discussion of the solution elements and to learn how you can hit the bullseye.

The 4 Subproblems

The solutions you are about to see differ radically from popular solutions, because each resolves a specific root cause for a single subproblem. The right subproblems were found earlier in the analysis step, which decomposed the one big Gordian Knot of a problem into The Four Subproblems of the Sustainability Problem.

Everything changes with a root cause resolution approach. You are no longer firing away at a target you can’t see. Once the analysis builds a model of the problem and finds the root causes and their high leverage points, solutions are developed to push on the leverage points.

Because each solution is aimed at resolving a specific known root cause, you can't miss. You hit the bullseye every time. It's like shooting at a target ten feet away. The bullseye is the root cause. That's why Root Cause Analysis is so fantastically powerful.

The high leverage point for overcoming change resistance is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We have to somehow make people truth literate so they can’t be fooled so easily by deceptive politicians.

This will not be easy. Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem and must be solved first, so it takes nine solution elements to solve this subproblem. The first is the key to it all.

B. How to Achieve Life Form Proper Coupling

In this subproblem the analysis found that two social life forms, large for-profit corporations and people, have conflicting goals. The high leverage point is correctness of goals for artificial life forms. Since the one causing the problem right now is Corporatis profitis, this means we have to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.

Corporations were never designed in a comprehensive manner to serve the people. They evolved. What we have today can be called Corporation 1.0. It serves itself. What we need instead is Corporation 2.0. This life form is designed to serve people rather than itself. Its new role will be that of a trusted servant whose goal is providing the goods and services needed to optimize quality of life for people in a sustainable manner.

What’s drifted too far is the decision making model that governments use to decide what to do. It’s incapable of solving the sustainability problem.

The high leverage point is to greatly improve the maturity of the political decision making process. Like Corporation 1.0, the process was never designed. It evolved. It’s thus not quite what we want.

The solution works like this: Imagine what it would be like if politicians were rated on the quality of their decisions. They would start competing to see who could improve quality of life and the common good the most. That would lead to the most pleasant Race to the Top the world has ever seen.

Presently the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. The high leverage point is allow new types of social agents to appear to radically reduce the cost of managing the sustainability problem.

This can be done with non-profit stewardship corporations. Each steward would have the goal of sustainably managing some portion of the sustainability problem. Like the way corporations charge prices for their goods and services, stewards would charge fees for ecosystem service use. The income goes to solving the problem.

Corporations gave us the Industrial Revolution. That revolution is incomplete until stewards give us the Sustainability Revolution.

This analyzes the world’s standard political system and explains why it’s operating for the benefit of special interests instead of the common good. Several sample solutions are presented to help get you thwinking.

Note how generic most of the tools/concepts are. They apply to far more than the sustainability problem. Thus the glossary is really The Problem Solver's Guide to Difficult Social System Problems, using the sustainability problem as a running example.