Oscar 2007 – 2008: Final Academy Award Nomination Predictions

I’m taking a few risks with these predictions, namely being a complete Atonement shut out. Ten years ago, I don’t think I would have said the same thing, but the Academy landscape has changed since then.

Best Picture

Michael Clayton

Juno

Into the Wild

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

No Country For Old Men

Alt: There Will Be Blood

Conventional wisdom would have There Will Be Blood in the final 5, but with so many Paramount Vantage films in the running, it seems like there is bound to be one that doesn’t make the cut. With comparisons to Citizen Kane and other grandiose reviews, is it the final that the Academy doesn’t like because they have to like it? Juno still seems like the most vulnerable, but damn it, money talks and it’s made more than any other potential nominee.

Best Director

Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Alt: Ridley Scott, American Gangster

I don’t see Jason Reitman making the cut, which is why I picked Scott as the alt prediction. This lineup for the director nomination doesn’t look to have much wiggle room.

Best Actor

Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild

Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl

George Clooney, Michael Clayton

Alt: Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Gosling over Denzel, Johnny, and Hanks? The BFCA and SAG seem to think so. If I keep up with the younger hipper Academy motif with my predictions, I can’t put the ‘old guard’ in where the new talented faces can be placed.

Best Actress

Ellen Page, Juno

Amy Adams, Enchanted

Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

Julie Christie, Away From Her

Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart

Alt: Cate Blanchett,Elizabeth: The Golden Age

For me, this will be the race to watch, like the Sissie Spacek run for In the Bedroom. Christie’s got a nomination in the bag, as do Page and Cotillard. It may still be a three horse race for the prize. SAG will clear things up. I’m going for Amy Adams over Cate Blanchett because Blanchett has I’m Not There. And Adams, like Gosling, may be on the road to Oscar fave territory.

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Alt: Tommy Lee Jones,No Country for Old Men

I’m honestly a little uncomfortable predicting Hoffman, knowing that Jones had a magnificent year. But Hoffman had a great year, too. I’m banking on his three Oscar-worthy performances trumpting Jones’s two. It all comes down to No Country for Old Men love.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Catherine Keener, Into the Wild

Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Continuing with my prediction of a complete snub for Atonement, I’m kicking out the film’s most Oscar-worthy performance and putting in Ruby Dee. I don’t see any other surprises, unless the inevitability of one Cate Blanchett catches up with her.

Best Original Screenplay

Juno

Ratatouille

Knocked Up

Michael Clayton

Lars and the Real Girl

Alt: The Savages

Best Adapted Screenplay

No Country For Old Men

There Will Be Blood

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild

Charlie Wilson’s War

Alt: Zodiac

The Oscar nominations will be announced live Feb. 22 at 8:30 a.m. EST on E!