Communist Rebels Could `Win` Tainted Election In Philippines

WASHINGTON — U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that the big winner in next month`s presidential election in the Philippines may be the already threatening communist insurgency there.

As a visibly weak and reportedly ailing President Ferdinand Marcos fights to retain power against his strongest political challenger in two decades, Corazon Aquino, American officials fear that election fraud by Marcos and his supporters will taint, and possibly decide, the outcome of the Feb. 7 balloting.

Paul Wolfowitz, assistant secretary of state for Asian and Pacific affairs, warns that a disputed election victory by Marcos would damage public confidence in the Philippines, exacerbate its economic troubles and turn people toward the communist New People`s Army.

``If it is seen as unfair, we think it will substantially worsen the situation in the Philippines,`` he said. ``We think it will, by deepening disillusion with the present system, encourage more people to turn to radical alternatives, specifically the communists.``

Another senior administration official, Assistant Defense Secretary Richard Armitage, said the Marcos government has shown itself so far unable to turn back the growing insurgency, which he said may be supported by as much as 20 percent of the Philippine population. Administration officials say the insurgency has benefited from the nation`s economic problems, Filipinos`

concerns about the politicization of the military and the political unpopularity of the Marcos regime.

American officials are increasingly alarmed that the communist New People`s Army is gaining strength. They worry that, if the government fails to take steps to regain its political legitimacy and to reform the military, the communist group eventually could threaten the Clark and Subic Bay military bases in the Philippines--America`s most important bases in the Western Pacific.

The United States is officially neutral in the election, saying only that a fair and democratic vote is necessary if there is to be political stability in the Philippines.

The scenario that most worries administration officials--and the one most likely next month--is a narrow and disputed victory by Marcos that would spark new unrest in the Philippines and force the Reagan administration to decide whether to abandon its support of Marcos, a steadfast American ally.

``It`s already obvious that Corazon Aquino is going to win the election;

Marcos is going to steal it. And the question is, Can he get away with it?``

said Richard Kessler, an expert on the Philippines at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Administration officials are unhappy that Marcos, despite his private assurances, hasn`t tried to allay doubts about the fairness of the election by ensuring the Aquino campaign equal access to television, as required by law, and by filling two vacancies on the election commission.

Further, U.S. officials are concerned that counterfeit ballots may have been printed, fictitious names remain on voter rolls and a promised ``quick count`` of the voting by computer to avoid tampering with the results now appears unlikely. Officials are disturbed that the Marcos government has not tried to investigate or inhibit politically motivated violence that so far has left several opposition campaign workers dead.

Some U.S. lawmakers and administration officials would like to see Aquino, despite questions about her ability to govern, defeat Marcos, who they believe is driving the country toward certain political and economic collapse. ``I don`t see how we can expect anything but widespread fraud,`` says Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.).

Many officials and experts said only a clear victory by one candidate or the other can head off a major political crisis in the Philippines.

``Marcos requires a landslide in order to convince the world he won an honest election, and the opposition requires a landslide to win,`` says Keith Schuette, executive director of the National Republican Institute for International Affairs, who recently visited the Philippines to study election preparations at the request of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Marcos last week dispatched his acting foreign minister, Pacifico Castro, to Washington to reassure his anxious ally that the election will be ``free, honest, fair and democratic`` and to invite an official American delegation of observers to witness the election.

The invitation was quickly accepted. Sen. Richard Lugar (R., Ind.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is to head the delegation. President Reagan is to announce the 40 or so other members of the group soon. Meeting with reporters at the National Press Club, Castro distributed a government-prepared reference book on the election that seemed to reinforce the concerns of Marcos` critics. The book devotes seven pages to a glowing biography of Marcos and just half a page to Aquino.

Castro arrived in the midst of startling disclosures about Marcos` World War II record. The New York Times reported that U.S. Army documents showed that Marcos` claims that he led a guerrilla resistance unit during the Japanese occupation of his country were ``fradulent.``

Also last week, a New York attorney told a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee, which is holding hearings into charges that Marcos and his wife, Imelda, made extensive, hidden real estate investments in the U.S., that a real estate broker said Mrs. Marcos owned four buildings in Manhattan worth $350 million. The Marcoses have denied it.