As the Super Bowl tournament reaches the semifinals, it’s first-and-10 here at NFL Insider, so prepare to move the chains.

• Peyton Manning is football’s Greg Maddux.

Both will join their sport’s Hall of Fame off the first ballot because they were too accurate, too smart and too prepared for opponents, who learned firsthand how a thrower can thrive without a hot fastball.

In the postseason, however, victories were harder to grasp. Sunday’s loss was Manning’s eighth in 12 playoff openers, leaving him with a postseason record of 9-11 and win rate of .450, well off his career .688 pace in 14 seasons.

As with Maddux, who went to 13 postseasons, Manning has celebrated last just once.

• Joe Flacco is his generation’s Terry Bradshaw.

Even in frigid weather, Bradshaw, the Steelers great, rifled the ball downfield, much as Flacco did in leading the Ravens past Manning’s Broncos in Denver’s icebox.

Old guy alert: I remember when winter weather defined NFL postseasons to a greater degree. Wintry conditions are less daunting to Flacco, who’s won five playoff games on the road (including one in Miami). More suited to domes, Manning is 3-6 with 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in playoff games outdoors.

• Shallow positioning cost the Broncos.

The coaches’ film, certain to give Denver’s John Elway a winter-long migraine, shows Broncos safety Rahim Moore lining up only 15 yards from the line of scrimmage on Flacco’s last-minute launch to Jacoby Jones that netted 70 yards and six vital points.

Chargers safety Eric Weddle set up 31 yards back when defending 4th-and-29 against the Ravens. As a result, Weddle was in place to stop Ray Rice -- until receiver Anquan Boldin concussed him with a disputed block.

Weddle said Flacco’s “easy” arm strength can deceive a safety. Once Moore saw Flacco’s spiral, he underestimated how far it would go, recalling my sandlot career.

• Conservatism didn’t defeat the Broncos.

For not attacking the Ravens on Denver’s final two possessions of regulation, coach John Fox and playcaller Mike McCoy drew heavy criticism from pundits near and far.

Given Manning’s limitations, however, having him throw downfield against a defense overplaying the pass would’ve been far from a sure thing.

McCoy told me Manning has the option of changing the plays. Playing dink-and-dunk all game, Manning doubted his downfield prowess. He never threw a seam pass, a favorite of his, and wore gloves because he struggled to get a grip in the cold. What’s more, an in-game injury to Knowshon Moreno weakened Denver’s pass protection.

• Conservatism cost the Seahawks

The more objectionable example of playing not to lose came from the Seahawks. While leading by one point in the waning seconds, they granted lengthy free releases to every Falcons receiver on first down and second down inside Atlanta’s dome. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan exploited the soft coverage for gains of 22 and 19 yards that set up a decisive field goal.

The second completion came against rookie linebacker Bobby Wagner, who drew tight end Tony Gonzalez without safety help. Mismatch. (Seattle, to be fair, blitzed on the play.)

• Colin Kaepernick has an advantage that other dual-threat quarterbacks did not.

NFL veterans say dual-threat quarterbacks aren’t a good bet to survive the hits over a full season and postseason. Kaepernick won’t prove an exception to the rule, though, if he leads the 49ers to a Super Bowl victory next month.

In the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, Kaepernick will be making just his ninth start this year. He’s taken far fewer hits than, for example, Steve Young and Randall Cunningham when they directed their teams in the playoffs.

Kaepernick has only 63 rushes this year. Running on fresh legs, he showed off his 4.53 speed last Saturday against the dreadful Packers. In eight starts, Kaepernick has three runs of at least 50 yards. For the year, he’s averaged 7.5 yards per carry, a number too flashy for me to resist again calling him Special K.