In The 'Weather App Era' Cuts To The National Weather Service Are DangerousMarshall Shepherd , Contributor

Increasingly I see inaccurate information posted in social media about potential snow or hazardous weather. Often, it is someone looking at information on a weather app. I cringe because I know their friends or followers may consume that information as "absolute truth." In a recent example where I live, a weather App was calling for a heavy burst of snowfall in the Atlanta area, and I started seeing the inevitable posts. I examined the situation and concluded that it was just going to be a cold rain. However, the damage was done. People in social media threads were already providing thoughts on the snow. Many colleagues try to explain the context of weather Apps, their limitations, and where there underlying information comes from. However, I am not naive and know that the average person often chooses convenience of the App. They are not likely to consider the complex meteorology behind the information in the App, its biases, the deficiencies in rapidly developing weather, or how it may struggle with conveying precipitation type. While I am not suggesting all weather Apps are not useful, I do urge caution in how they are used. This brings me to the main reason that I opine this Saturday morning. The National Weather Service (NWS) is a jewel of the United States Government. I trust them for my weather information (by the way, so do you even if you may not realize it). Their computer models, satellites, radars and meteorologists are at the heart of most weather information that you consume on television and digitally. They also provide our valuable watches and warnings. Yet, President Trump's proposed 2019 budget includes dangerous cuts to the National Weather Service.NOAA/NWS

I normally reserve this space to provide insights on weather and climate science. However, there are times in which I provide commentary from my lens as 2013 president of the American Meteorological Society, a past member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Science Advisory Board, and an active voice within the weather enterprise. Irrespective of those credentials, I am an American citizen that understands the value of weather forecasts. For the sake of illustration, I would like to propose a challenge to the reader. What do each of the following have in common?

• An oil refinery manager in Houston trying to determine how to fortify infrastructure as Hurricane Harvey approaches. • A farmer assessing needs for irrigation of her peanut crop. • An air traffic controller routing a plane near turbulence or a thunderstorm. • The mayor of Ft. Myers, Florida assessing who should evacuate as Hurricane Irma approaches Florida. • The U.S. Navy evaluating options for moving its Norfolk-based fleet as Hurricane Sandy approached. • Firefighters and officials evaluating where to dispatch resources to battle wildfires in California. • A school superintendent deciding whether to send buses onto roads as a snowstorm approaches St. Paul, Minnesota. • A TV meteorologist providing guidance as potentially severe storms approach a town hosting an outdoor concert.

The answer is that they all rely on sound and timely weather information. The NWS is the agency in our country charged with that task. According to Avery Anapol writing in The Hill,

"President Trump’s 2019 White House budget reportedly includes a proposed cut to the National Weather Service (NWS) that would eliminate hundreds of jobs. As part of an 8 percent cut to the agency’s budget, the Trump administration would nix 355 jobs, including 248 forecasters, saving an estimated $15 million, according to The Washington Post......The budget would also cut millions of dollars to the agency’s surface and marine observations program, the tsunami-warning program and activities that invest in weather modeling."This is unbelievable. In 2017 weather and climate-related costs in the United States totaled over $300 billion or 300 times the annual budget of the NWS. It is also well-documented that many NWS offices are already understaffed at times while dealing with threatening weather events. Angela Fritz writes in the Washington Post,

"The employees of the NWS are demoralized, according to a recent report by the Government Accountability Office. They are understaffed and spread thin, covering shifts and positions beyond what they were hired to fill. The weather never sleeps, and apparently neither does the Weather Service......Between 2014 and 2016, the number of vacant staff meteorologist positions increased 57 percent. In the same time, management vacancies decreased by 29 percent."

Yet the Administration is proposing further cuts? This makes no sense. NWS union director Dan Sobien sums up his thoughts on proposed cuts in The Hill,

"There simply will not be the staff available on duty to issue the forecasts and warnings upon which the country depends"

I have written many times that meteorologists deserve an outpouring of thanks after weather disasters because the complex information they translate to the public, emergency managers, and first responders saves lives. Period. In a recent American Meteorological Society (AMS) panel in Austin, both FEMA and local Houston officials did just that in response to the 2017 hurricane season.

I should also mention that in order to make U.S. weather forecasting capabilities the best in the world, significant investments in computing and research resources are required. Story after story after story after story (ok, you get my point) have been written on how the United States trails the Europeans in weather modeling accuracy. While some one-off investments have been offered in recent proposals or after major weather disasters, sustained cuts in research, development, and computing will not get us there. A bipartisan landmark bill called the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 originated in the Obama Administration and was signed by President Trump. The bill places quite a few requirements or mandates on the National Weather Service. However with proposed cuts to its budget, it may be hard to meet them.

The good news is that Congress originates legislation, and they have shown a streak of actual responsible thinking when it comes to the National Weather Service in the recent past. When compared to the costs of walls, military parades, and other things in the news, the National Weather Service is one of the taxpayer's best values. Its roughly $1 billion annual budget works out to about the cost of a cup of coffee for every person in the U.S. population.

• The Surgeon General has determined that there is no safe level of exposure to ambient smoke!

• If you smell even a subtle odor of smoke, you are being exposed to poisonous and carcinogenic chemical compounds!

• Even a brief exposure to smoke raises blood pressure, (no matter what your state of health) and can cause blood clotting, stroke, or heart attack in vulnerable people. Even children experience elevated blood pressure when exposed to smoke!

• Since smoke drastically weakens the lungs' immune system, avoiding smoke is one of the best ways to prevent colds, flu, bronchitis, or risk of an even more serious respiratory illness, such as pneumonia or tuberculosis! Does your child have the flu? Chances are they have been exposed to ambient smoke!

Save $15 million by cutting vital weather service jobs?The proposed "military parade" will cost over $30 million !

Drain the Swamp - Fill it back up with radioactive waste!

• The Surgeon General has determined that there is no safe level of exposure to ambient smoke!

• If you smell even a subtle odor of smoke, you are being exposed to poisonous and carcinogenic chemical compounds!

• Even a brief exposure to smoke raises blood pressure, (no matter what your state of health) and can cause blood clotting, stroke, or heart attack in vulnerable people. Even children experience elevated blood pressure when exposed to smoke!

• Since smoke drastically weakens the lungs' immune system, avoiding smoke is one of the best ways to prevent colds, flu, bronchitis, or risk of an even more serious respiratory illness, such as pneumonia or tuberculosis! Does your child have the flu? Chances are they have been exposed to ambient smoke!