Investment = he paid for something in the hope that its value will increase?

Did his investment consist mainly in tangible objects? In a single tangible object? A house? A valuable object? If so valuable for its historical value? A CD? An LP? A picture? A book? A painting? A sculpture? Was he used to do those type of investments?

Did he want that its investment go down so that anotherbinvestment go up? Did he want the investment's value to go down a little bit? A lot? Under a certain treshold? In an insurance against the decrease of value of the object (or investment) relevant?

Value increase = is it paid more? If so are the oscillations related to the value of the obkect/s mostly related to financial markets? The author?Is it something like if the author dies the value of the object increase? Is the value of its investment subiject to sudden oscillations often? Rarely? Just that time?

Value go down = the real value? (E.g. he invested particular kind of money/coin?...) that a possible buyer will buy its investment at a lower price? Is that what he hoped? If so did he hope that for months? Days? Seconds?Is the value of its investment determined by the market? Did he want to sell its investment?

Investment = he paid for something in the hope that its value will increase? Yes

Did his investment consist mainly in tangible objects? No In a single tangible object? No A house? No A valuable yes object no? If so valuable for its historical value? A CD? An LP? A picture? A book? A painting? A sculpture? No to allWas he used to do those type of investments? He may have made similar investments, but the circumstances in the puzzle statement were specific to one investment

Did he want that its investment go down so that anotherbinvestment go up? NoDid he want the investment's value to go down a little bit? A lot? Under a certain treshold? The more it went down, the better In an insurance against the decrease of value of the object (or investment) relevant? No

Value increase = is it paid more? The value increasing would mean that the investment he made would be worth more (ie he could sell it at a higher price)If so are the oscillations related to the value of the obkect/s mostly related to financial markets? This The author? NoIs it something like if the author dies the value of the object increase? No Is the value of its investment subiject to sudden oscillations often? Yes, I think so Rarely? Just that time? No

Value go down = the real value? Yes (E.g. he invested particular kind of money/coin?...Yes!) that a possible buyer will buy its investment at a lower price? Is that what he hoped? He hoped the value would go down but he wasn't hoping that someone would buy his investment If so did he hope that for months? This, the exact timescale is not relevant Days? Seconds?Is the value of its investment determined by the market? Yes Did he want to sell its investment? At some point, yesI should reassure you that no specialist knowledge of investments or markets is required for this puzzle (fortunately, because I don't have any)

Was the investment in gold or silver coins? Precious metals? Something that could be used for trading or as tender?Does the item in which he invested have a direct reactionary relationship to another market or currency? Example - gold prices often go up when the value of the US dollar goes down, anything like this?

To avoid repeating the same questions of Coffeebean...Is it something like he invested in a coin currently in circulation? If so, would he be paid eventually with the same type of money?Did he need to convert the value of its investment from a currency to another? In the period in which he wanted the value to go down, did he want to invest again? If so in the same type of money/coin? E.g. he invested in euros paying in dollars and then he wanted to invest again in euros payong in dollars hoping that the value of dollars decrease to pay them less?Or maybe he invested paying with a type of money, then wanted to invest again paying with the kind of money in which he invested?

Was the investment in gold or silver coins? No Precious metals? No Something that could be used for trading or as tender? YesDoes the item in which he invested have a direct reactionary relationship to another market or currency? Example - gold prices often go up when the value of the US dollar goes down, anything like this? No, as far as I am aware the value is not tied to another currency

To avoid repeating the same questions of Coffeebean...Is it something like he invested in a coin currently in circulation? A currency, but not a physical coin If so, would he be paid eventually with the same type of money? He would either spend the investment directly or would exchange it for his own currencyDid he need to convert the value of its investment from a currency to another? Yes In the period in which he wanted the value to go down, did he want to invest again? No If so in the same type of money/coin? E.g. he invested in euros paying in dollars and then he wanted to invest again in euros payong in dollars hoping that the value of dollars decrease to pay them less?Or maybe he invested paying with a type of money, then wanted to invest again paying with the kind of money in which he invested? He only invested once (as far as is relevant to this puzzle)

so...chronology:A) Man invested in bitcoins hoping that the value of them increase over timeB) The man for some reason hopes that bitcoin value go downC) The man hope that the value of bitcoins increaseIs it right or instead of bitcoins somewhere I need to put "money"/"investment"? If so in A? in B? in C? investment goes down = price of bitcoins is lower? Or value of dollar increases so that buying a bitcoin would be costless?

If instead the reconstruction is correct, suppose the exchange in A is one dollar for a bitcoin (for sake of simplicity). He buys for instance 100 bitcoins for 100$. Then in B he wanted the value of bitcoins goes down, e.g. 0.5$ for a bitcoin or lower.

Premising I'm not an expert of bitcoins...my questions are: in doing the investment did he spend his money immediately, that is with a click he spend 100$ for 100 bitcoins? Or maybe he booked them and payed in a second time depending on their market value (which would justify step B)?

Does he have any other relevant investment? No, this is the only relevant onePardon the vague question but I don't know anything about investments or Bitcoin... I promise this puzzle doesn't require it - it's more lateral than techy!

so...chronology:A) Man invested in bitcoins hoping that the value of them increase over timeB) The man for some reason hopes that bitcoin value go downC) The man hope that the value of bitcoins increaseYes, this is all correct

Is it right or instead of bitcoins somewhere I need to put "money"/"investment"? If so in A? in B? in C? investment goes down = price of bitcoins is lower? This Or value of dollar increases so that buying a bitcoin would be costless?

If instead the reconstruction is correct, suppose the exchange in A is one dollar for a bitcoin (for sake of simplicity). He buys for instance 100 bitcoins for 100$. Then in B he wanted the value of bitcoins goes down, e.g. 0.5$ for a bitcoin or lower. Correct

Premising I'm not an expert of bitcoins...my questions are: in doing the investment did he spend his money immediately, that is with a click he spend 100$ for 100 bitcoins? Yes Or maybe he booked them and payed in a second time depending on their market value (which would justify step B)? No, he paid when he bought them

Did he hope for the value of bitcoins to go down (or up, in either time period where he did) because of the value of the bitcoins themselves? or because he hoped something would happen technologically or mathematically that would have the side effect of the value of bitcoins going down?

In case you're thoroughly confused, I was thinking of something along these lines: The supply of bitcoins is limited by the rate of discovery of certain numbers, and the problem of discovering these numbers is believed to be "hard", for some mathematical sense of the word "hard". If someone were to prove that there is an "easy" way to find these numbers, I imagine that this mathematician would be a very serious contender for a prize worth considerably more than an average person's collection of bitcoins. Similarly, if there were a great technological advance like quantum computing that made finding these numbers dramatically faster, that would also be worth a tremendous amount (possibly more than all the bitcoins in circulation). Conversely, for security researchers this would be bad news. So I was thinking that maybe the subject of this puzzle was working in one of these fields and faced this kind of "conflict of interest".

Did he hope for the value of bitcoins to go down (or up, in either time period where he did) because of the value of the bitcoins themselves? Yes - based on your explanation below this is correct or because he hoped something would happen technologically or mathematically that would have the side effect of the value of bitcoins going down? No

In case you're thoroughly confused, I was thinking of something along these lines: The supply of bitcoins is limited by the rate of discovery of certain numbers, and the problem of discovering these numbers is believed to be "hard", for some mathematical sense of the word "hard". If someone were to prove that there is an "easy" way to find these numbers, I imagine that this mathematician would be a very serious contender for a prize worth considerably more than an average person's collection of bitcoins. Similarly, if there were a great technological advance like quantum computing that made finding these numbers dramatically faster, that would also be worth a tremendous amount (possibly more than all the bitcoins in circulation). Conversely, for security researchers this would be bad news. So I was thinking that maybe the subject of this puzzle was working in one of these fields and faced this kind of "conflict of interest". Nothing like this but good thought!

Would it be advantageous for him that bitcoins go down in economic terms (i.e. he will earn more money?)? Has he heard something at tv? Did he hope that a bubble explode? Did he believe that the one in bitcoins was a bubble?

Did he believe that if bitcoins did not go down they would rise their value faster and faster until the bubble explode? Was he able to easily sell his investment to others? Relevant in which type of bitcoins he invested? Short/Long positions relevant? (Did he take a short or a long position?)

Did he hope that bitcoins go down for a long period? For a week? For a second? For a day? Did he hope that whenever bitcoin go down other investors sell them to him at a lower price so that he can buy them and reinvest? In in esting in bitcoins did he set his strategy to this hope of fluctuations (up-down-up)? Did he ensure his investment so that whenever bitcoins go down he wikl earn sonething?

Would it be advantageous for him that bitcoins go down in economic terms (i.e. he will earn more money?)? NO, good question, he would not benefit financially from the value going downHas he heard something at tv? Did he hope that a bubble explode? Did he believe that the one in bitcoins was a bubble? He still believed they would go up (as he did when he bought them), he just hoped they wouldn't

Did he believe that if bitcoins did not go down they would rise their value faster and faster until the bubble explode? No Was he able to easily sell his investment to others? No - explore Relevant in which type of bitcoins he invested? No Short/Long positions relevant? (Did he take a short or a long position?) Long, I think - he bought assuming that the value would keep going up.

Did he hope that bitcoins go down for a long period? For a week? For a second? For a day? He spent a few months hoping they would go down as much as possible Did he hope that whenever bitcoin go down other investors sell them to him at a lower price so that he can buy them and reinvest? No In in esting in bitcoins did he set his strategy to this hope of fluctuations (up-down-up)? No, when he invested he wouldn't have foreseen that one day he would hope they went down Did he ensure his investment so that whenever bitcoins go down he wikl earn sonething? No

Would the benefit be in terms of repairing something? Hiding something? Did he want to let someone know he didn't gain anything in investing in bitcoins? Was him a professor which has always been against bitcoins so that he invested but then during lesson period he wanted to take advantage from the fact that bitcoins went down?

Is it sonething concerning the monitoring of markets? No Computers? Computer technology is somewhat relevant, can you rephrase what you are asking here?

Would the benefit be in terms of repairing something? No Hiding something? No Did he want to let someone know he didn't gain anything in investing in bitcoins? No Was him a professor which has always been against bitcoins so that he invested but then during lesson period he wanted to take advantage from the fact that bitcoins went down? No

Ok so...let's restart from the basics...Benefit of bitcoins to go down...are the consequences of a drawback of bitcoins relevant? Does the benefit directly derive from the consequences that the drawback would have? For instance would he benefit from the fact that if bitcoins go down many of the investors would sell bitcoins?

If he didn't have invested in bitcoins previously, would he have hoped for a drawback of bitcoins too? Did he check the trend of bitcoins on a web site? Relevant? If so, is the picture/page design relevant?

Benefit = a benefit in terms of physical health? A benefit in terms of winning a bet? In terms of making a point? Relevant to what (a firm?) the bitcoins were connected? Like if bitcoins go down a certain activity/firm would have a lower value?

Ok so...let's restart from the basics...Benefit of bitcoins to go down...are the consequences of a drawback of bitcoins relevant? I don't quite understand this question, can you rephrase? Does the benefit directly derive from the consequences that the drawback would have? The "benefit" the man received would be a direct consequence of the value going down. Is this what you're asking?For instance would he benefit from the fact that if bitcoins go down many of the investors would sell bitcoins? This is irrelevant

If he didn't have invested in bitcoins previously, would he have hoped for a drawback of bitcoins too? No Did he check the trend of bitcoins on a web site? Irrelevant Relevant? If so, is the picture/page design relevant? No

Benefit = a benefit in terms of physical health? No, but this is probably closest A benefit in terms of winning a bet? No In terms of making a point? NoRelevant to what (a firm?) the bitcoins were connected? No Like if bitcoins go down a certain activity/firm would have a lower value? No

Was him part of a group of investors? No Woukd there be a meeting if bitcoins go down? No Maybe in the meeting there's someone with who the men is in love wfith...Not this but I am enjoying all your guesses!

Did he spend his own money to invest? YesRelevant his job? News relevant? No to both

so he invested in bitcoins and hoped that bitcoins go down...had he invested in another currency would he have hoped the same? Would he have invested in other financial activities, would he have hoped the same?Was him a rational man? Is it relevant that bitcoins are an electronic type of money? Is it something psychological like he wanted to know how he feel losing money? Did he invest just in bitcoins?

Relevant when he began to hope that bitcoin go down? did he hope that in order to form pessimistic expectations? I mean...if he always hoped bitcoins to go up maybe he could have been more stressed always checking their value...hoping that it will go down he was't somehow stressed at all: the more they go down the happier he was, the more they go up the better was for his investment...was it something like that?

so he invested in bitcoins and hoped that bitcoins go down Yeshad he invested in another currency would he have hoped the same? Difficult to answer, I am going to say no, there is something specific to the situation that wouldn't work so well with another currencyWould he have invested in other financial activities, would he have hoped the same? NoWas him a rational man? Yes, his feelings would be understandable to most people I thinkIs it relevant that bitcoins are an electronic type of money? YesIs it something psychological Yes like he wanted to know how he feel losing money? Not this Did he invest just in bitcoins? Yes

Relevant when he began to hope that bitcoin go down? The date is not relevant, but something triggered itdid he hope that in order to form pessimistic expectations? No, but this is somewhat along the right track I mean...if he always hoped bitcoins to go up maybe he could have been more stressed always checking their value...hoping that it will go down he was't somehow stressed at all: the more they go down the happier he was, the more they go up the better was for his investment...was it something like that? Not this

Was he trying to analyze market psychology? and wanted to observe what people would do in response to a decrease in the value of bitcoins?

Was he trying to reduce his dependence on electronic devices, and if bitcoin were less valuable, it would give him a reason to use electronic devices in one instance (namely when paying for goods or services)?

Was he trying to analyze market psychology? and wanted to observe what people would do in response to a decrease in the value of bitcoins? No to both

Was he trying to reduce his dependence on electronic devices, and if bitcoin were less valuable, it would give him a reason to use electronic devices in one instance (namely when paying for goods or services)? No

Psychological = to avoid being anxious and have fear of losing money? To aboid stress? Pressure?

So...did he hope that in order to be more natural in a certain behavior? Do the advantages of hoping manifest mainly when he is alone? When he is alone with a device? When he is with others? When he is discussing with others?Is it a tactic to remember something? To forget something?

He truly hoped that in order not to care more about his investment and to start thinking of other things? Was it a way to think of having lost the money invested so that he was somehow encouraged in working hard? Like he has thrown away those money and he is poor...

Psychological = to avoid being anxious YES and have fear of losing money? Yesish To aboid stress? Yes Pressure? Yes

So...did he hope that in order to be more natural in a certain behavior? No, the benefit would be the avoidance of stress and anxietyDo the advantages of hoping manifest mainly when he is alone? When he is alone with a device? When he is with others? When he is discussing with others?Is it a tactic to remember something? To forget something? As above, the advantage is a better mental state for the man

He truly hoped that in order not to care more about his investment and to start thinking of other things? Was it a way to think of having lost the money invested so that he was somehow encouraged in working hard? Like he has thrown away those money and he is poor... No to all this

Good questions - you have established that the reason the man wanted the bitcoin value to fall was that if it did, he would feel less stress/anxiety/pressure.

Still to solve - why would the man be feeling stress if the bitcoin value didn't fall?And why did he suddenly change his mind and want the value to rise again?

Stress deriving by the greater amount of money he potentially could accumulate? I mean....the fact is that he wished not just that bitcoins' value fall...but that it falls as much as possible right? This is because he wished a long time in order the bitcoin to increase again its value after the fall in value? If so, can we conclude that stress = a long lasting period of continue increase of the bitcoin? Would he feel stresses if the bitcoins' value remain stable(losses and gains of quite equal size...like oscillating behavior) for a long time?

Is the continuous increase in value of bitcoin and consequently of his investment connected to an increase in his responsibilities? An increase in his tasks/commitments? In some deadline he had (e.g. he had planned holidays with his wife, but a continuous increase in markets means a continuous monitoring of markets and so no holidays?)? Is the stress related to a greater amount of work? To his social relationships?Did he want a temporary restore from work? Did he want just to retire his investment to go on holiday (so he hoped that bitcoin go down so that he wouldn't have lost opportunities of investing in bitcoins when the market of bitcoins was in bull thus stressing himself for every dollar lost) and once done the holiday he hoped again for a market in bull? (Hope it is clear)

Stress deriving by the greater amount of money he potentially could accumulate? Yesish I mean....the fact is that he wished not just that bitcoins' value fall...but that it falls as much as possible right? Yes This is because he wished a long time in order the bitcoin to increase again its value after the fall in value? I don't quite understand, could you rephrase? If so, can we conclude that stress = a long lasting period of continue increase of the bitcoin? Yes Would he feel stresses if the bitcoins' value remain stable(losses and gains of quite equal size...like oscillating behavior) for a long time? Yes - the higher the value of bitcoin at any given point, the more stressed he would have felt (during the period where he wanted to value to fall)

Is the continuous increase in value of bitcoin and consequently of his investment connected to an increase in his responsibilities? No An increase in his tasks/commitments? No In some deadline he had (e.g. he had planned holidays with his wife, but a continuous increase in markets means a continuous monitoring of markets and so no holidays?)? NoIs the stress related to a greater amount of work? No To his social relationships? NoDid he want a temporary restore from work? No Did he want just to retire his investment to go on holiday (so he hoped that bitcoin go down so that he wouldn't have lost opportunities of investing in bitcoins when the market of bitcoins was in bull thus stressing himself for every dollar lost) and once done the holiday he hoped again for a market in bull? (Hope it is clear) Not this

When he starts wanting the investment to go back up again, is it for the same reason as his initial investment? (Which I'm assuming was to make money--is that correct?) Does he start wanting the value to go up again, also for stress management reasons?

Is he concerned that if bitcoin value gets too high, no one will use them as actual currency? Or no one else will invest and he'll never be able to sell?

Is he worried about the consequences of being rich? Taxes relevant at all? Inheritance? Are other specific people involved in the reason for his stress?

When he starts wanting the investment to go back up again, is it for the same reason as his initial investment? Yes (Which I'm assuming was to make money--is that correct?) Yes Does he start wanting the value to go up again, also for stress management reasons? No

Is he concerned that if bitcoin value gets too high, no one will use them as actual currency? Or no one else will invest and he'll never be able to sell? No to both

Is he worried about the consequences of being rich? No Taxes relevant at all? No Inheritance? No Are other specific people involved in the reason for his stress? No

So...if he his alone with a device and see the bitcoin increasing its value of a single dollar (so if bitcoin passed from 2$ to 1$) for instance, would he have felt stressed? A one-dollar increase wouldn't have stressed him too much Is it relevant hos PC? No, but a certain device is relevant

Are informatic virus relevant? No Potential computer crashes relevant? No Hackers relevant? Yes, actually, but may be misleading... Relevant from which computer he made the investment? No, but another device is relevant, see above

Is the stressful situation something like: the hogher the value of bitcoins, the higher the gain he could have made but also the higher the possibility of losing all due to a problem? YES! This is very close - so why did he think he might lose it all?

No Probs...I know I'm stressing you with my amount of questions, but, you know...is just to make you feel aligned with the man in the puzzle

Another device = to be sure...did the device belong to him? Did he have the control of the device? Do someone else have the control of the device and could discover precious info? a phone? iPad? Is a touch screen relevant? A swatch (those technological types)? Is the device the one he used to invest? Is he stressed all days and all nights 24h a day? Or is he stressed just during certain part of the day? When he is in contact with the relevant device? Every time a phone call arrives? Every time something on the device happens? If the device is turned off, is him at risk of losing his money? Is he stressed?Are there relevant buttons that should not be pressed? A "delete" button? A "send all" button? A "disinvest" button? Are online casinos relevant? Is the device broken? Is the device connected with a PC?Passwords relevant? Did he use the device for sonething else that might reveal his passwords/username? Did something happen (e.g. for security reasons?) once a certain amount of money has been gained? E.g. more strict controls?

No Probs...I know I'm stressing you with my amount of questions, but, you know...is just to make you feel aligned with the man in the puzzle Not at all!

Another device = to be sure...did the device belong to him? Yes Did he have the control of the device? Yope Do someone else have the control of the device and could discover precious info? No a phone? iPad? Is a touch screen relevant? A swatch (those technological types)? No to all Is the device the one he used to invest? YesishIs he stressed all days and all nights 24h a day? Yes Or is he stressed just during certain part of the day? No When he is in contact with the relevant device? Possibly more so during this time Every time a phone call arrives? Every time something on the device happens? If the device is turned off, is him at risk of losing his money? No Is he stressed? Turning the device off wouldn't affect his stressAre there relevant buttons that should not be pressed? No A "delete" button? A "send all" button? A "disinvest" button? Are online casinos relevant? No Is the device broken? No Is the device connected with a PC? Yes, at timesPasswords relevant? Yes Did he use the device for sonething else that might reveal his passwords/username? NoDid something happen (e.g. for security reasons?) once a certain amount of money has been gained? No E.g. more strict controls? No

Device at times connected to the PC...is it a USB pen driver? A printer? Can it be connected through wi-fi? Through bluetooth? Through USB? Credit cards relevant? Has it got a display? Is it relevant what was the password? Was it required each time he logged in? Did he use the device in order to memorize the password/s? In order to log in? In order to check the investment? Like a television?Is the device smaller than a phone? Smaller than a USB driver?Did he use the device to choose the password? E.g. an ebook reader in which he has chosen a specific word?

Device at times connected to the PC...is it a USB pen driver? Yesish A printer? Can it be connected through wi-fi? Through bluetooth? Through USB?Identifying the device exactly would take some specific knowledge so I'll tell you - it is a device he was using to store his bitcoins (basically like a USB pen drive but ultra-secure)

Credit cards relevant? No Has it got a display? Yes Is it relevant what was the password? No Was it required each time he logged in? Yes Did he use the device in order to memorize the password/s? In order to log in? This In order to check the investment? Like a television?Is the device smaller than a phone? Smaller than a USB driver? See aboveDid he use the device to choose the password? E.g. an ebook reader in which he has chosen a specific word? No

Lose money = passwords cancelled? No To lose his passwords? Yes Forget his password? Or could be this

To be sure...did he lose the device? Did he have more than one device? Did he store the passwords in the device? Was the log in automatic? (Not an expert, but what I mean is: is it sufficient to possess the device to log in or it is required also the knowledge of the password/s?)

So, was him pretty sure about the password he needed to insert? Was it required just a password? More than one? If the latter, did he remember the order in which he needed to insert the passwords? Was there a maximum number of attempts? Did he change the password each time for security reasons? Did the password expire after a certain period and need to be changed? If so, are there any other password required to change password?

Forget or lose password = he didn't memorize the password in his head (he didn't remember the password)? He didn't save the password on the PC or on the device? Or he saved the password on the device but not on a PC

To be sure...did he lose the device? No Did he have more than one device? No Did he store the passwords in the device? No Was the log in automatic? No (Not an expert, but what I mean is: is it sufficient to possess the device to log in or it is required also the knowledge of the password/s? This)

So, was him pretty sure about the password he needed to insert? No, he had forgotten it Was it required just a password? Yes More than one? No If the latter, did he remember the order in which he needed to insert the passwords? Was there a maximum number of attempts? Yesish Did he change the password each time for security reasons? No Did the password expire after a certain period and need to be changed? Irrel If so, are there any other password required to change password?

Forget or lose password = he didn't memorize the password in his head (he didn't remember the password) Correct, he didn't remember his password? He didn't save the password on the PC or on the device? He didn't do this either Or he saved the password on the device but not on a PC The relevant password is the one to access the device

*****SPOILER*****A man buys $3000 worth of bitcoins, expecting and hoping that they will go up in value and therefore make him richer.

Unfortunately, he loses the password to the device where they are stored, meaning he is unable to access them (the disadvantage of Bitcoin being that if you lose access like this, you are on your own - the security of the currency meant nobody could recover them without the password).

For several months, as the value of Bitcoin continued to rise, the man is tormented by the fact that he has a fortune locked away which he could access if he could only remember the password - the value of his original $3000 dollar investment had reached over $30,000 and was predicted to rise much higher. The man therefore wishes that the value of bitcoin would crash, so he wouldn't feel so bad about forgetting the password.

Eventually, with the help of a hacker, the man is able to recover his password and his bitcoin, so he returns to hoping the value will increase so that he can continue to make more money.

Thanks everyone for playing and especially Earnest for sticking with it!