'Rise of the Revisionists: Russia, China, and Iran' Gary J. Schmitt | AEI Press While al Qaeda, ISIS, and North Korea present serious problems, America's geopolitical situation is unique in that we are confronted by the rise of revisionist powers in each of the three regions seen as crucial to our own peace and prosperity: Russia in Europe, China in East Asia, and Iran in the Middle East.

How Trump should define success in SyriaDanielle Pletka and Jack Keane | The National Interest There is a way forward in Syria, and Donald Trump has the courage to stand up to those inside and outside his administration who have urged retreat. With a strategy that consolidates and strengthens moderates who reject jihad and tyranny and engages our Arab regional allies, we can help Syrians win back their nation and turn the tide against ISIS, Russia, and Iran.

ISRAEL, IRAN: Is Israel-Iran Clash Imminent?By Ben Caspit, Al-Monitor: “Senior members of the Israeli security establishment are predicting that the month of May will be one of the most volatile periods in the current era. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Yadlin, the former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Military Intelligence Directorate, said in an interview published April 22, “I have not seen a May this dangerous since May 1967.””

U.S., AFRICA: U.S. Builds Drone Base in Niger By Carley Petesch, AP: “On the scorching edge of the Sahara Desert, the U.S. Air Force is building a base for armed drones, the newest front in America’s battle against the growing extremist threat in Africa’s vast Sahel region.

Syrian army pummels southern DamascusThe Syrian army pummeled southern Damascus on Monday in an effort to isolate Islamic State militants and force them to surrender or evacuate, state media reported. The area is the last part of the capital outside the regime’s control.This comes as Russiasaid Monday that its Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria has helped more than 1,000 rebel fighters and their families evacuate from nearby eastern Qalamoun. Meanwhile, the European Union and United Nations kicked off the seventh annual conference on Syria today in Brussels in hopes of collecting more than $6 billion in new aid pledges and reviving the Geneva peace process. Read Moredailystar.com.lb

Houthi leader killed in Saudi airstrikeA Saudi-led coalition airstrike in Yemen's eastern province of Hodeida last week killed the head of the Houthi rebels' Supreme Political Council, Saleh al-Sammad, the Houthi-run Saba news agency confirmed Monday. This comes a day after airstrikes on a wedding in Yemen’s northern Hajjah province killed dozens of civilians, including children. On Monday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres decried the airstrikes and called for an investigation.Meanwhile, five pro-government soldiers were killed in clashes with jihadis in the southern city of Taiz on Monday. The clashes follow the killing of Lebanese aid worker.Read Moreal-monitor.com

Middle East Missions to Accomplish By Clifford D. May, The Washington Times: “Can we at least agree that President Trump’s decision to strike three chemical weapons facilities owned and operated by Bashar Assad — vassal of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia — was consistent with American values?”

Syria a Symptom of a Broken International Order By Ramesh Thakur, The Strategist (ASPI): “Others will discuss the strategic context and consequences of the allied air strikes on Syria. As a student of UN-centric global governance, I want to make the larger ‘structural’ argument that—considered in its totality—the strikes reflect and will further contribute to a broken system of international order.

The Syrian regime is massing troops and armored vehicles to prepare to retake from Islamic State the Yarmouk area in southern Damascus, according to local sources and media. Yarmouk was home to large numbers of Palestinian refugees before the country’s civil war, but has been under siege by the Syrian regime for many years. - Jerusalem Post
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Brent Eng and Jose Ciro Martinez write: It is worth remembering that the imminent downfall of Assad’s regime was proclaimed several times since the onset of violence in Syria in late 2011. Each time, Assad defied such predictions. How has his government, which several times looked so close to being toppled, weakened its rivals and ensured its continuity? - Washington Post

PATRIARCH KIRILL AND MR. PUTINBy EPPC Distinguished Senior Fellow George WeigelSyndicated ColumnThe Russian Church suffered terribly under Lenin, Stalin, and their heirs. Its martyrs, who number in the millions, are dishonored when the bishops of a putatively free Church play the role of chaplain to the omnipotent and infallible czar, rather than speaking truth to power. Read More

​Trump said U.S. forces acted together with France and the U.K., retaliating for a suspected poison gas attack that killed dozens near Damascus last week.

According to the Pentagon, targets included:

a scientific research facility in Damascus that officials said was involved in producing chemical and biological weapons

a chemical weapons facility near Homs

a chemical weapons equipment storage facility near Homs

and a military command post near Homs involved in the most recent attack.

Cipher Brief experts weighed in on what they see as next steps, and possible blow back:

Robert Richer, former CIA Mideast & South Asia chief:“Syrian opposition leaders via Amman from their sources in the ground say the attacks were very surgical and hit, by their accounts, facilities that had been mostly evacuated. Syrian security forces have cordoned much of the targeted areas but there does not appear to be any reported leaks of chemical products… From the Syrian opposition’s standpoint, as conventional forces do not appear to have been targeted, they not see the attacks as a game changer on the ground.”

Norman T. Roule, former CIA Mideast division chief and chief of station:“The likely Russian propaganda campaign and attempts to criticize the U.S. in the UN, which will follow these strikes, will further degrade our already poor relations with Moscow, but the Russian counter options are limited. Russia, Syria and Iran are isolated in the diplomatic arena. Moscow shows no desire to risk a military confrontation to protect a dictator, and some in Moscow will be stung by the accurate perception that Russia cannot defend its allies from Western strikes.”

John Nixon, former CIA senior leadership analyst: “In the short-run, I think the Assad regime will back away from using chemical weapons (CW) to assert control of rebellious areas. Iran and Russia may also see Assad’s use of CW as dangerous and unnecessarily provoking the U.S. into action that could spread quickly into a wider conflict. So long as the U.S. does not seek to alter the status quo in Syria, I do not think that either Moscow or Tehran will look to retaliate against the Western nations…In the long-run, I do not believe that the Assad regime will give up what it sees as its right to reestablish control over the country.”

As President Donald Trump considers air strikes on Syria, Amb. James Jeffrey—former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Turkey—believes the strike could “show the value of switching from U.S. ground troops to a mostly air-focused campaign” in the country.

“The U.S. has strategic interests in Syria, primarily to counter the threat to its allies Israel, Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf States by Iran and the Assad regime enabled by Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the 2,000 U.S. combat troops in northeastern Syria are marginal to those interests and to some degree, contradict them. Their counter-ISIS mission has evolved into a perpetual deployment machine similar to Afghanistan but with less purpose.”

Jeffrey lays out the United States’ three missions in Syria:

“Mission 1. Combat—Serious action to seize / hold territory and defeat a foe. In Syria, CENTCOM’s ‘Mission 1’ is to ‘destroy’ ISIS. But does that mean as a state and army, already accomplished, or all remnants?”

“Mission 2. Nation building /’stability ops’ missions designed to transform some population's mindset and improve their lot in ways conducive to U.S. goals. This is inevitably a long term, no ‘end game’ mission which the military either executes, or supports the State Department or local partners in doing. CENTCOM commander Votel rolled out just such a ‘Mission 3’ concept for northeastern Syria in his April 3 U.S. Institute for Peace remarks. Iraq and Afghanistan are both examples—and cautionary tales—of our experience with such missions.“

“Mission 3. Presence/show of force/potential project power platform missions to shape political or military developments. Examples include the U.S. Army Sinai presence mission, and the U.S. Navy’s patrols in the Gulf. In Syria, such a mission would be to hold territory, control airspace and at least threaten a revitalized insurgency against Syrian dictator Assad, all to shape Russian and Iranian decisions. Administration officials keep citing this mission but have not turned it into an executable plan.”

Arms Control Hostage to Skripal and Syria Attacks By William Courtney, RealClearDefense: “The Skripal poisoning and shrill Kremlin denials of asphyxiating gas attacks by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad raise doubts about Moscow’s commitment to the purposes of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Russia is also violating the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Never has the future of negotiated arms control involving Russia been at greater risk.”

Syria relocates military assets in anticipation of US strikesThe Syrian military is preparing for possible missile strikes by relocating its air assets, US officials acknowledged Wednesday in the wake of unusually public threats from US President Donald Trump to retaliate for last weekend’s suspected chemical attack. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that regime forces were emptying airports and military air bases. And the Russian military said on Wednesday that it is tracking the movement of the US naval strike force expected to reach the Gulf in early May. Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, told Lebanese media on Wednesday that Damascus and Moscow are discussing options to respond. “Consultations are ongoing between the allies and they will not let matters progress as Washington wants,” she said. “The rules of engagement have changed in favor of Damascus.”

Meanwhile, the escalating threats of military action sparked a flurry of last-minute diplomacy even as White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanderssaid Wednesday that Trump has not set a timetable or made a final decision on military action. On Wednesday evening, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Trump spoke about the Douma gas attack, and Russian parliamentary officials say Ankara is helping to mediate the situation between Washington and Moscow through NATO channels. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned the Israeli leader not to take any action that could further destabilize Syria. Netanyahu replied that Israel will not allow Iran to establish a military presence in the country. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Theresa Maysummoned a Cabinet meeting today to discuss the possibility of Britain joining the US and France in a military response. Read Morereuters.com

President Trump has promised a "big price to pay" for "Animal Assad" and his foreign backers, but CIA veteran Emile Nakhleh says “short of regime change, an American strike will be viewed as a pinprick.”

“Similar to what happened in the recent past, a strike aiming only at punishing Assad for yet another gas attack would not force him to change his bloody behavior toward the Syrian people…symbolic military strikes by the United States merely to send a message to the “Butcher of Damascus” have not alleviated the misery of the Syrian people or the barbarism of the regime.”

“Despite Trump’s recent statement that he would pull the American military out of Syria ‘very soon,’ he has now committed himself to respond to Assad’s chemical attack on Douma. To maintain America’s credibility in the region, Assad’s removal from power seems the only option.”

“The recent history of the Syrian civil war has shown beyond a shadow of a doubt that Assad is not willing to negotiate himself out of power or to include his people in the governing process. Destroying the country has been a palatable price for him if it guarantees his staying in power. Russia and Iran have helped him do just that.”