Mexico's presidential race

The third man

Calderón changes the calculus

“GRADUALLY, and then suddenly.” That was the description by one of Ernest Hemingway's characters of how he went bankrupt. It is also how Santiago Creel, against initial expectations, is losing the presidential nomination of the conservative National Action Party (PAN). Mr Creel was President Vicente Fox's interior minister and heir-apparent. Since Mr Fox's government is widely seen as disappointing, that may not have helped him much. Neither did Mr Creel's own poor campaigning and performance in a debate.

The result: Mr Creel was trounced in two regional primaries by Felipe Calderón, a former energy minister who resigned after clashing with Mr Fox. If Mr Calderón picks up more than 50% or so of the vote in the third on October 23rd, he will become the PAN's candidate; otherwise, he will face Mr Creel in a run-off that he can expect to win.

The advent of Mr Calderón throws extra uncertainty over the outcome of next July's presidential election. Opinion polls had long placed Mr Creel a distant third behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which had governed Mexico for 71 years, until Mr Fox came to power in 2000.

Mr Calderón's victory now brings hope to the PAN faithful. He is youngish, at 43, and is a technocrat with a reputation for honesty and a strong party background. He says he hopes to benefit from the achievements of Mr Fox's presidency—economic stability and a fall in poverty—while claiming distance from its poor record in getting promised reforms through a divided Congress.

Two other things might help Mr Calderón. The first is that Mr López Obrador, a populist and former PRI member, divides Mexicans. Businessmen, in particular, are casting around for someone to stop the former mayor. The second thing is that the PRI is in disarray. It will hold a primary on November 13th. Mr Madrazo, the party's former president, faces a strong challenge from Arturo Montiel, the ex-governor of Mexico state. Mud is flying. Documents have surfaced suggesting that Mr Montiel's family embezzled public money. That hurt Mr Montiel. But the suspicion that his rival's campaign dug up the documents hurt Mr Madrazo, who has a history of winning elections in controversial fashion.

Mr Calderón's swift rise has caught the pollsters unawares. One survey suggests he is less disliked than any of the other main contenders. Much can happen before the election. Mr López Obrador is a wily politician and an effective campaigner. If the PRI can heal its primary wounds, it will benefit from its powerful national organisation. Jorge Castañeda, a former foreign minister, might yet get on the ballot as an independent. In 2000, Mr Fox managed to embody the desire of many voters to break with Mexico's old order. If Mr Calderón can rekindle that spirit, he could turn a two-horse race into a tight, three-way contest.