Cubswin11 wrote:Non-tendering Tommy and saving $1.2 seems like a no brainer.

that was my first thought as well, but then who are you getting to do the same thing for less?

Zobrist/Bote/Happ/FA guy like Mercer or Galvis. The role is mostly filled internally with whoever is on the bench on a given day and the roster spot is taken from the FA MIF addition that can play SS (Mercer or Galvis for example probably only costs $2-3 million more than the $1.2 and fills an actual need/role).

Last edited by Cubswin11 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Both Bote and Seal Boy are likely to be mainstays next year, in my mind. I feel pretty sure at least one of Schwarber or Happ is going to get dealt.

If we use MLBTR's arb estimates, we're basically sitting at 232 mill for luxury tax purposes...... With a 246 Top End Hurdle......

The 232 includes the following......

All players under contract and options getting picked up on Quintana, Strop, Hamels, and Kintzler picking up his.Also includes minimum salary guys, 3 million cushion for in season callups, 2.25 for the rest of your 40 Man roster, and 15 million for player benefits and insurance......

The 232 does not include Addison Russell.

We can lower Hamels number. We might not even need to, there's a chance his LT hit is just 14.....

I think that we definitely are going to go balls out to get Bryce or Manny. And I suspect we'll add a very solid reliever too. Not a 40-50+ mill guy, but a David Robertson type. And I can see us going after whichever SS falls in the market, in the group of Iglesias, Mercer, Galvis, or Hechevarria.......(Hoping for Marwin Gonzalez personally)

At any rate, I feel pretty confident that we'll have the ok to get past the top end. But probably only if we land one of the 2 big guys. Granted, we wouldn't need to go past it, unless it's for them.

If the Dodgers or Yankees get one of those 2 and still full their teams out normally, they're going over too. Same with Red Sox, if they went after either.

So, I'm pretty confident we're willing to go past it. Likely with the idea of trying to get back under it the following year, with Zobrist, Morrow, Cishek, Smyly, maybe Hamels coming off the books......(More reason to.just pickup Hamels option actually)

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I've been thinking about ways to get rid of Heyward for a long time. I just don't believe in his bat (even when he's playing well) and think his defense is starting to slip and go backwards. His contract will not age well.

We could just straight up dump him on some team and pay like 90-95% of what's left. I'd only do this if we signed Harper and had a good option for CF. Not sure if playing Happ full-time in CF is ideal. His defense and route running is not great there.

I know engineering 3-team trades is foolish and hard to pull off, but I just don't see a way Stl will make a straight up trade with us. The Redbirds are going to try to move Fowler this offseason. Heyward has a limited NTC and I doubt he wants to go back to Stl.

I imagine Colorado wants to get rid of Ian Desmond so I thought about this:

Cubs get Dexter Fowler + Wade Davis + cash

Rockies get Heyward (+ cash?)

Cardinals get Ian Desmond (+ maybe a prospect?)

Obviously, all these players have warts and bad contracts. Just the degrees and making the money/contracts work out. Do you guys want to trade for Dexter if possible? What about Wade Davis? Not sure if this framework would ever work out, but I think Dexter could bounce back and be a positive influence in the clubhouse. You could split CF between Fowler and Happ (not a great defensive platoon I know). What do you guys think?

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"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist

I don’t know if this is actually legal or how it would be accounted for by MLB (maybe they wouldn’t view it as a new deal but a continuation of his current deal and the current LT hit applies for the next 2 years and only the third year would be accounted as a new deal when that comes?) but if this move is possible it’s a pretty easy way to cut a few million off the LT hit. Guys who know the LT/CBA better chime in.

Lester has 2/47.5 guaranteed left ($22.5 in 19, $15 in 20 and a $10 mil buyout/$25 option in 21). His LT hit is $27.5 (6/155 + $10 mil buyout).

The idea/proposal is...... What if we signed Lester to new a 3/55-60 deal, this cuts ~$8 mil off the cap hit this year, it gives Lester another year and nets him another ~$10 million. Would this be viewed as a new deal? Or would it be viewed as a continuation of his current one and we don’t get the LT discount????

If it’s allowed it’s a win for everyone, imo. We don’t come a ton more out of pocket than we already have to, Lester gets another year and more money guaranteed, we save a pretty significant amount in LT hit this year.

Cubswin11 wrote:I don’t know if this is actually legal or how it would be accounted for by MLB (maybe they wouldn’t view it as a new deal but a continuation of his current deal and the current LT hit applies for the next 2 years and only the third year would be accounted as a new deal when that comes?) but if this move is possible it’s a pretty easy way to cut a few million off the LT hit. Guys who know the LT/CBA better chime in.

Lester has 2/47.5 guaranteed left ($22.5 in 19, $15 in 20 and a $10 mil buyout/$25 option in 21). His LT hit is $27.5 (6/155 + $10 mil buyout).

The idea/proposal is...... What if we signed Lester to new a 3/55-60 deal, this cuts ~$8 mil off the cap hit this year, it gives Lester another year and nets him another ~$10 million. Would this be viewed as a new deal? Or would it be viewed as a continuation of his current one and we don’t get the LT discount????

Pretty sure that's a new deal, or at least his new AAV would be based on the three remaining years as opposed to his full 7 year deal, which is what we care about.

Assuming starting point after arbitration is 206M and 246M is the point at which draft picks start being penalized, I'd do the following.

Trade Almora+Chatwood for salary relief (-13M in 2019)Trade Caratini+Kintzler for salary relief (-5.5M)Trade Happ+Montomery+Hatch to Colorado for J.Gray (0, 3 years left)Trade Duensing +1M to ARI for Jarrod Dyson (+1M, one year left on Dyson)Trade Monasterio+Little to SF for W.Smith(+3.5M, only one year left under contract))

Gives the Cubs a bullpen of death, another SP with huge upside who's also young, another impact bat, but they certainly do lose depth. This also leaves just under 10M to make any other moves. I don't think Jose Iglesias is the worst option.

Tryptamine wrote:Assuming starting point after arbitration is 206M and 246M is the point at which draft picks start being penalized, I'd do the following.

Trade Almora+Chatwood for salary relief (-13M in 2019)Trade Caratini+Kintzler for salary relief (-5.5M)Trade Happ+Montomery+Hatch to Colorado for J.Gray (0, 3 years left)Trade Duensing +1M to ARI for Jarrod Dyson (+1M, one year left on Dyson)Trade Monasterio+Little to SF for W.Smith(+3.5M, only one year left under contract))

Gives the Cubs a bullpen of death, another SP with huge upside who's also young, another impact bat, but they certainly do lose depth. This also leaves just under 10M to make any other moves. I don't think Jose Iglesias is the worst option.

Also, Bryce is getting way more than that. And Almora doesn't get you out from underneath Chatwood. And Brendan Little ain't getting a Will Smith type of return.

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Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.

Those two aren't remotely the same, come on. Darvish would've gotten that in a normal market (and likely this offseason if he was a FA and coming off the year he had in 17) but teams tightened for this offseason last offseason and salaries and amount of teams in the market were kept down a bit. We also are talking a 26 year old position player, generational talent vs a very good (but not great or young) SP who was already 29/30.

I view the Mariners as a Kintzler or Duensing dumping ground. They’re always open to trades. Pazos coming back would be interesting. Attaching Almora to one there makes sense as they would have a need for him.

Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Assuming we get Bryce I think there’s a decent chance we get an F the LT offseason. If that’s the case I’d like to see something like.....

Non-Tenders:La StellaRussell

Trades: - Almora, Adbert and Kintzler for Archie Bradley

- Happ, Zack Short, prospect(s) and Chatwood to the Mariners for James Pazos and as much money as they are willing to pick up (this is not maximizing value on Happ but it’s clearing an awful contract and getting a good lefty back)

- Vic and maybe a not real prospect and Duensing for an A ball lottery ticket

FA signings:- Bryce ($35 AAV for 8 to 12 years)- Pick up Hamels Option- McCutchen for 2/30ish- 1 of Mercer, Galvis, Iglesias - Maldonado for 1-2 years - Chavez back for a cheap 1 year