Thursday, September 22, 2005

If You Build It ...

As the vote to ratify or reject the Iraqi constitution draws closer,
different sides are taking their positions. From the Guardian:
Iraq Sunnis Want Constitution Rejected

The local leaders from Iraq's insurgency-torn Anbar province, the country's
Sunni heartland, gathered for a three-day conference ... held in the Jordanian
capital for security reasons. ... "We urge all the Iraqi people to go to
the polls and say no to the constitution," Sheik Abdul-Latif Himayem, a
prominent cleric from the Anbar capital, Ramadi, who organized the conference,
told The Associated Press. ... He accused the Shiite-led government of
worsening the sectarian divide in Iraq by carrying out "unjustified"
arrests in Anbar, where the insurgency has been centered.

And from the New
York Times, a train going in the opposite direction. Senior Shiite Cleric Plans to Endorse Iraqi Constitution

Sept. 22 - Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani,
will issue a religious order for Shiites to vote in favor of the newly drafted
constitution in a referendum planned for Oct. 15, one of his aides said today.
... Mr. Sistani's commands are followed by millions of Iraq's Shiites, and his
order, if given, would increase the chances that the constitution will be
approved.

The collision, according to the Saudis, may lead to an Iraqi civil war. Al
Jazeera reports:

The (Saudi Foreign) minister said he did not believe the country was
engulfed in full-scale civil war but the trend was moving in that direction.
... Asked what Saudi Arabia feared most about the trend, Saud said, "It
will draw the countries of the region into conflict and that is the main worry
of all the neighbours of Iraq". He referred specifically to Iran, which
is backing and supplying Shia in Iraq, and to Turkey, which would not permit a
separate Iraqi Kurdish state on its border.

After Operation Enduring Freedom drove the Taliban from Afghanistan some
analysts asked why America chose Iraq, and not Saudi Arabia or Syria, for a
regime takedown. For example, Jeffrey
Sachs wrote in August, 2003:

Within hours of the attack, the White House apparently understood that
senior Saudi intelligence officials were probably involved and that 15 out of
the 19 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia. They were no doubt stunned to
realise that parts of the vast Saudi royal family were not only corrupt, but
also deeply intertwined with anti-American terror and extremist
fundamentalism. ... a substitute had to be found for the US military bases in
Saudi Arabia. Like Saudi oil, the bases too were now under threat, especially
because the US presence in the Saudi kingdom was known to be the principal
irritant for al-Qaeda. ... the Bush White House needed to issue a powerful
threat to the Saudi leadership: one more false step and you're finished.
Attacking the next-door neighbour was no doubt judged to be quite persuasive.

But perhaps the strategic rationale for choosing Iraq versus Saudi Arabia
consisted in that Iraq lay along a major fault line in the Muslim world, not
simply with respect to religion, but in the case of the Kurds, ethnicity as
well. It was the one place where America was guaranteed to find local allies
whichever way it turned; it was the last place where the population could easily
put aside their differences to oppose the United States. And if the objective
were to set the region on its ears, here was the pillar in temple of Dagon
around which everything could be sent crashing down. Or maybe President Bush
just stuck a pin on the map and said, 'I think we'll find weapons of mass
destruction here'.

However it began, OIF has unlocked forces that are rocking the foundations of
the entire region. Saudi Arabia, for example, cannot but remember how the forces
of an Iraqi state stopped just a few hours' drive away from its gleaming cities
in 1990, with nothing but the 82nd Airborne Division between the Republican
Guard and the Royal Palaces. Now they are torn, truly torn, between their
sympathies for the Sunni insurgency and the cold knowledge of its probable
consequences. The one thing Arab capitals may fear more than a continuing
American presence in Iraq is the possibility of an American withdrawal.
Ironically it is the Sunnis, their Syrian sponsors and their sympathizers in
Saudi Arabia who have the most to gain from the establishment of a stable,
constitutional and unitary Iraq, could they but nerve themselves to stand
against the jihadi currents within their societies. Will they? Barbara
Tuchman observed that history is often the field of folly, which she defines
as the "pursuit of policy contrary to self-interest". And so it is.

262 Comments:

The Sunnis - for that matter all the players in this drama know full well that the history of Islam proves that those in the minority - those out of power - loose!My first reaction to OIF was a question. Can Islam embrace democracy and republicanism? Are the two compatible? I agree with Wretch - the best odds for that are in Iraq.

The Shiites and the Kurds are pushing on towards democracy, the Sunnis are worried and rightly so.You can hardly fault the Kurds and Shiites, 30 years of subservience to a minority that continues to spill their blood or at best helps external terrorists.

We have our own Saudis,the elitest left in America who in their blind sneering contempt for our country throw in their lot with madmen who would behead them for their decadence on day one of the universal ummah.DumbFatUglyStupidWashed UpNot a Has Been but a Never Been

Can't have a civil war if the Shia refuse to fight, and under Al Sistani, they refuse. They won't take up the bait.

The Sunnis too are deeply divided, between tribe and 'insurgents' have either nationalist/Baathist or Qaedist constituencies.

Iraq is at the fulcrum of the enitre Middle East, between a secular but Islamising Turkey, a theocratic but irreligious Iran, and a Wahhabist irredentist Saudi Arabia. The ideological contest between Turkey and Iran is especially fascinating. But in any case, a democratic Iraqi government will churn out governments, Islamist, secular, leftist, rightist and everywhere between. A democratic Iraq destroys the status quo regional cold wars by definition.

Iraq, in failure or success, will change the region...and that could hardly be a bad thing all things considered.

some analysts asked why America chose Iraq, and not Saudi Arabia . . .15 out of the 19 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia.

I was always under the impression that OBL stacked the deck with the Saudis on purpose hoping we would bite and do his dirty work for him and take down Saudi Arabia. Something he's always wanted. He hates the royal family.

"Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, will issue a religious order for Shiites to vote in favor of the newly drafted constitution in a referendum planned for Oct. 15"

This WOULD be funny, downright hilarious, were it not for the price paid by us for that extraordinary religious order. The price makes it just damn sad.

The sooner the Shiites can be left entirely to their own devices (that would be yesterday) the better. The MNF-I would be wise to wash their hands entirely of the south. Let the sectarian militias/local police forces have it and divy it up as they will. There's nothing at all left to be gained there.

"If we fail that test, the consequences for the safety and security of the American people would be enormous," the president said. "Our withdrawal from Iraq would allow the terrorists to claim an historic victory over the United States."

On Afghanistan, Bush said that 18,000 U.S. troops serving there have not yet finished their mission. His comment appeared to be at odds with President Hamid Karzai, who on Tuesday challenged the need for major foreign military operations in Afghanistan.

"Iraq, in failure or success, will change the region...and that could hardly be a bad thing all things considered."

I agree, Trish, even if Iraq fails (and i don't think it will), atleast America (Bush in particular) can say she tried to bring freedom and democracy. Which is a lot better than the hand wringers in Europe and the UN who prefer to sit on their backsides and criticise.

Instead of reading books on the history of salt, the president should be studying recent presidential history. Richard Nixon, who said he had a "secret plan" to end the war in Vietnam, left office with war still raging; it finally ended in a U.S. defeat. Dwight Eisenhower won office in part by promising to end the war with North Korea. It ended in stalemate with an armistice and tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers stationed at its border for half a century.

Four years after 9/11, terrorist attacks are rapidly increasing in every part of the globe. Iraq has not become a synonym for a new democracy; it is synonymous with unending spasms of sudden, violent death.

Verc's contention is that regardless of the precise nature of the governments "churned out" by, or as a consequence of, OIF, the fact that they will be new is what's finally important. Who gives a fig if they're Islamist or Leftist or Seventh Day Adventist?

This is just the concept of creative destruction with wild abandon and complete indifference to actual consequences.

The forces released by the Glory of God, Baha'u'llah, are less than 120 years into their renewing and recreating process!

Based on the oneness of humankind; the oneness of God; the equality of men and women; the necessity for rationally structured investigation and areas of reality to be investigated; and the fundamental creation of humans as KNOWING and LOVING entities, these forces are sweeping away the detritus and outmoded shibboleths of 7,000 years and leaving intact the accumulated wisdom and learning from those same '7 days' of human history.

All humankind is headed toward an encounter with the Glory of God. We have two choices: learn what its all about, or hide from it as long as we can.

Neither choice will forestall the encounter. Its up to us to realize that when we're out of touch with purpose, we're out of touch with function:

If I remember correctly Saudi Arabia's largest oil deposits lie under land populated by Saudi Shia. Perhaps that's an important aspect to this situation? Perhaps the Saudi monarchy is worried that a Kurd/Shia controlled Iraq would reach out to fellow Shia around the ME and not just with, or necessarily with at all, Iran?

The CIA, seeking to repair a reputation damaged by Iraq and the Sept. 11 attacks, will do more of its own spying in countries where it has tended to rely on foreign intelligence services up to now, CIA Director Porter Goss said on Thursday.

"Unilateral operations will return to be part of the governing paradigm for the CIA," Goss told employees.

Bush hasn't mentioned any secret plan to end the war, his plan it pretty plain and open. Why is Iraq still being compared with Vietnam, they are so very different, i understand the left dream on that Iraq would turn into a vietnam, their prayers for thousands of american soldiers killed in Iraq and therefore lead to a weakening of American resolve are still unanswered.

There is a democratically elected government in Iraq that was brought about by the US, not the occupation and enslavement as the left would have us believe and contrary to what the leftists tell us, not every square metre of Iraq is being bombed and burned 24/7.

U.S. and Iraqi commanders acknowledge that it will be many months before the Iraqi units are able to function on their own, a belief echoed by dozens of Tall Afar residents interviewed during the operation. One year ago this month, U.S. and Iraqi forces swept through Tall Afar, but when the Americans largely withdrew from the region, the insurgency returned, stronger than ever.

"If the Americans leave, the chaos will come back. The bad people will come back again, just like before," said Abdullah Wahab Muhammed Younis, one of the city's most prominent Shiite sheiks, who said insurgents have killed 14 members of his family and wounded 33 in the past year.

"The Iraqi army is stronger than it was, but they are not ready. Not yet."

UNITED NATIONS, New York European countries have overcome their past differences with the United States over Iraq and all 26 NATO members are now providing training and equipment to Baghdad, according to the alliance's secretary general.

The official, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, a former Dutch foreign minister who backed the Bush administration's war while many Europeans opposed it, said Tuesday that he was about to raise the NATO flag over a huge complex in Baghdad that had prepared 1,000 Iraqi officers inside the country and 500 more outside.He said that NATO had also arranged for Iraqi troops to be trained in Germany, Italy and Norway.

He complained that most European countries still invested too little in defense and said that he was devoting himself to "pubic diplomacy" to try to persuade allies of the importance to European security of actions taken by NATO far afield from Europe.

"If I had to defend defense spending - be it in a national government or as NATO secretary general - people must realize that they are living in a different world where the challenges we are facing are ones we have to go far away to confront them at the source," he said.

"An operation which costs a lot of money in Afghanistan plays its role in the fight against terrorism," he added, "because if that country were to slide back into the black hole again that it was under the Taliban, the problems arising from not engaging it would end up on our doorstep."

NATO has 12,400 troops in Afghanistan, and it is about to take over an American command in the south next spring to be operated by British, Canadians and Dutch forces.

ot: Withdraw Meyers!.Julie L. Myers has been nominated by the White House to lead U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a vast bureau with more than 20,000 employees and a budget of $4 billion....Her nomination highlights the administration’s desire to keep immigration enforcement on a short leash, lest some rogue official embarrass the White House by actually enforcing the immigration law. It exposes the administration to yet another Michael Brown fiasco if, as is eventually likely, a terrorist eludes the demoralized immigration agents at ICE on his way to killing Americans.“The response of House Republicansto any talk of new immigrationprograms has been‘Enforcement First.’”Columnist and blogger Michelle Malkin has suggested a much better pick for the ICE job: Peter Nuñez — Navy veteran, Reagan-era U.S. Attorney in San Diego, and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Enforcement during the first Bush administration. His views on immigration are more in line with those of NR than the White House, but this should actually be an additional selling point: By selecting Nuñez as the nation’s top immigration-enforcement officer, the president would have much more credibility with Congress and the public in trying to sell his immigration proposals.

It continues to baffle me except as utter contrariness that so many in the media define a continued presence ("occupation") in Iraq as a negative. Has our sixty-year presence in Germany, England, Japan, et cetera, caused untold suffering and misery for those people?

Bush Braces As Cindy Sheehan's Other Son Drowns In New Orleans.WASHINGTON, DC—According to White House sources, President Bush is bracing for intensified criticism following Monday's report that the body of Tyler Sheehan, son of outspoken anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan, was recovered from the receding floodwaters in New Orleans.Sheehan was last seen Sept. 4, hours after he and his levee crew sustained injuries while attempting to shore up storm-weakened levee pilings. According to sources, contaminated water laced with slicks of petroleum from a recently deregulated, poorly fortified refinery ignited, causing third-degree burns among the workers. Survivors recall seeing Tyler, badly injured and without the life jacket and medical kit denied him by recent budget cuts, digging survivors out of the wreckage.

"I don't know how we would have gotten out of there without Tyler," said Dom Ghivarello, Sheehan's crew chief. "Once we got clear of the break, we had no way of getting to high ground without our utility truck, which was requisitioned by the Defense Department last month for use in Iraq. But Tyler threw me his truck keys and went back to help others. That's the last I saw of him."

trish - how exactly does your constant refrain that our being in Iraq is a disaster and our leaving Iraq will prompt a collapse contribute to the discussion? other than just allowing you to vent your frustration with a very difficult challenge, that is?What is your prescription for peace and securtiy both there and here?

“Deuce Four,” is on its way home.I attended their departure ceremony, presided over by the much respected Brigade Commander, Colonel Robert Brown. Purple Hearts were awarded to soldiers wounded in action.The commander of the Deuce Four, LTC Erik Kurilla, was not there to pin the medals on his soldiers; Kurilla was the last Deuce Four solider wounded in Iraq, and was recovering from three gunshot wounds.All told, the 1-24th infantry regiment earned over 157 Purple Hearts during their mission in Mosul.

Sadly, due to a snag in paperwork with US Immigration, a very sick child is stuck in Jordan. Her well being, possibly her life, is on hold over some trivial forms. It was as if she had been found and lifted by angels, only to be stopped and left to sit outside the gates while nameless guards check her ID card against the roster. The only thing certain is that without treatment Rhma will die.posted by Michael Yon @ 1:10 AM . Permanent LINK

If 3 Sunni Provinces in Iraq vote to reject the Constitution, it's rejected as a National Constitution.

The odds of that are high.

Then, we likely see more insurgency activity. More American deaths, further weakening of the American military and economy (the latter due to reckless spending and high oil prices).

Perhaps a few more years of "our magnificent troops breaking the backs of the enemy in Fallujah, Fallujah II, Tal Afar". Another 80 billion or so for a few more years for the "noble, liberty-loving, purple finger stained Iraqi people".

Or, a nation of bloodthirsty, mostly incompetent shitheads from another point of view.

Leaving the military fighting for funding against hurricane pork, corporate pork, and more tax cuts for the wealthy....and then fighting not to gut strategic forces in favor of counterinsurgency spending. And with a Reserve that has burned out eligibility time of some 60% of its members, and an Army 20% short of recruitment goals though active duty forces are still re-enlistmenting at this point.

Asked what Saudi Arabia feared most about the trend, Saud said, "It will draw the countries of the region into conflict and that is the main worry of all the neighbours of Iraq". He referred specifically to Iran, which is backing and supplying Shia in Iraq, and to Turkey, which would not permit a separate Iraqi Kurdish state on its border.

Saud doesn't say it, but one can read "conflict... that is the main worry of all the neighbours of Iraq" with the understanding that his worry arises from the possibility of internal as well as external disruption. From some perspectives, maybe that's a good thing. Maybe, even, that was the philosophical basis for OIF to begin with.

And as to Iran "backing and supplying Shia in Iraq..." aren't the Shia that Iran is purportedly "backing" pretty much limited to supporting al-Sadr and his thuggish militia, which means it is acting in direct opposition to the Shia majority?

Lastly, the confident assertion that "Turkey... would not permit a separate Iraqi Kurdish state on its border" seems more humorous than threatening. We shall see, I guess.

"Lastly, the confident assertion that "Turkey... would not permit a separate Iraqi Kurdish state on its border" seems more humorous than threatening. We shall see, I guess. "---sirius, sir:Yes, I've always wondered if that was decreed by Gaawd, or what?The Turks seem increasingly to be becomingTurkeys.Is that Kurdistan's problem?

If we get a secular, republican Iraq sitting in the middle of Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, we will also have an independent, arabic language source of radio and TV news and commentary right in the middle of things.

Well, I for one am glad that two years of fighting in Iraq have cost America 1,907 to date...LESS THAN ONE DAY's casualties, D-Day!Estimated at 2,500 Allied dead, D-Day was costly, I understand, but compared to the 7,058 Americans killed at Gettysburg, Iraq is DRY, thank God, nearly bloodless!

Nearly...

I think you are confusing the acceptability of high casualties in wars of survival where the whole nation sacrificed (Civil War, WWII, even the proxy wars we fought against the nuclear armed greatest mass killers the world has ever known - the Commies - in Korea and Vietnam) ....with a preemptive war of choice where few sacrifice predicated on false intelligence and which includes 1 1/2 to 2 years, initially...of a badly botched postwar.

This war is also shaping up to be the 3rd most expensive war the US has ever fought in it's history if it goes on another 4-5 years, at 1.3 trillion. (only the Civil War and WWII will exceed it).

As for blood, you omit the 14,900 wounded so far. And the 6,800 injured by disease and accidents directly associated with Iraq ops. It's OK to fixate only on the killed, since that is the only number the media cares about, but the cost is high in terms of people who would have died of wounds or injuries in past wars. Mush of those that would be dead in the past do not "recover" - but survive in permanent full or partial impairment. The ratio of dead to seriously injured was 1:3 in WWII, 1:4 in Vietnam, and 1:9 in Iraq.

Already we have far more 100% disabled for life soldiers than combat dead. IEDs, RPGs, and vehicle crashes with no seat belts are superb maimers and Schiavo-izers.

I don't favor "cut and run" now that we are in Iraq, but the neocon notion that America could leverage high tech to fight a series of cheap, fast, mostly bloodless ME wars to help "our special friend" is now part of America's past strategic thinking. Nor is "stay the course" and avoiding inconveniencing more that 2% of the American population a wise long term strategy. Wars involve more than elite military combat troops - they need able leaders who (1)involve the whole people in a common vision of sacrifice and commitment to victory; (2) use diplomacy to gain useful allies; (3) rapidly address national deficiencies like lack of linguistic skills; (4) keep the nation fiscally resilient enough to bear war costs; (5) actively engage in strategic communications aimed at winning the war of competing ideas to the maximum extent possible.

Let's just say our elite combat troops, in doing their share - a small part of total war-fighting a nation must engage in.....

a minor note:"After Operation Enduring Freedom drove the Taliban from Afghanistan some analysts asked why America chose Iraq, and not Saudi Arabia or Syria, for a regime takedown. "

Does anyone remember that in 2001 we were already at war with Iraq? There was a ceasefire, but the state of war persisted. Before jumping into new military adventures, it is always wise to finish off the ones in progress.

Oh, no, C4, I would NEVER support a war based on falsehoods knowingly fed to the American people.

That's why the Iraqi war stands out so clearly, we Americans knew pretty much what it was all about AND how it would have to be presented in America's collective decision-making process.

Thank God, our government wasnt LYING to us.

And lest you think there are never any valid reasons for a government to withold various details (none of which SEEM to have been witheld on Iraq) please understand that I spent years working with a Top Secret clearance on Top Secret efforts, and I DO KNOW of valid reasons for witholding all sorts of information from the general public!

If you were the Grand Mucky Muck of the free world and wanted to push back on (choose one) militant Islam, political Islam, Islam you couldn't find a better place than Iraq. Look at a map of the region. Geography counts! Of course the other choice is to do nothing and hope for the best.

Asked what Saudi Arabia feared most about the trend, Saud said, "It will draw the countries of the region into conflict and that is the main worry of all the neighbours of Iraq". ............I just think that this means the Saudis believe that the Sunnis in Iraq have lost and that the Iranians are gearing up for war. It also means that the saudis are looking past or through the presence of US soldiers in Iraq. Shia dominance of Iraq would be a major league upset of the status quo of the middle east. The sunnis are being shamed big time. But they were not shias who flew the planes into the world trade center. I think that part of US planning has been to make sure that the next time any Wahhabi cleric talks politics on any level he'll receive the sort of hawk eyed anger and contempt that saudis are famous for. Everyone will think "Last time this fellow spoke--the result was the shia took over iraq.

OTThe World Bank Headed by Wolfowitz is considering cancelling the debts of many nations--but there are considerable doubts as to whether this will do any good.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/22/AR2005092202102.html

One helpful suggestion would be that someone refer the ild to Wolfowitz with the suggestion that countries would need to pass property standards created by the ild in order to qualify for debt relief.The ild's url is:http://www.ild.org.pe/eng/contenido.htm

The following is a blurb from the ild web site:

WHO WE ARE

Four billion people in developing and post-Soviet nations —two thirds of the world's population— have been locked out of the global economy: forced to operate outside the rule of law, they have no legal identity, no credit, no capital, and thus no way to prosper. The Institute for Liberty and Democracy (ILD), based in Lima, Peru, has created a key that can open the system to everyone — a time-tested strategy for legal reform that offers the majority of the world's people a stake in the market economy.

The ILD does not only design strategies and projects. It implements them: over the past 18 years, we have created and managed legal property systems that have moved hundreds of thousands of businesses and real estate holdings from the underground economy into the economic mainstream. (See Achievements.)

RECOGNITION

The Economist listed the ILD as one of the two most important think tanks in the world; according to the Telegraph of London, the ILD has created one of the four big ideas in modern times for improving the lot of the world's poor. Time magazine named the ILD as one of the five most important innovators of the twentieth century in Latin America. Ronald Coase, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, has called the ILD's work "powerful and completely convincing." Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History and the Last Man, has said that the ILD's methodology "constitutes one of the few new and genuinely promising approaches to overcoming poverty to come along in a very long time." Praise has come from across the political spectrum —from Bill Clinton and Bill Bradley to Vladimir Putin, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush. Recently, former President Clinton stated that he thought "the most promising anti-poverty initiative in the world was the one being advanced by the ILD". (For additional responses to our work by academics and the international media, see Press and Academic Reviews.)

INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS

In 1996, the ILD expanded its activities to the international arena, and political leaders around the world began seeking our help. We are now working with the governments of Egypt, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, the Philippines, and Tanzania. (See Recognition by World Leaders and International Organizations.)

The ILD has received requests from the political leadership of some 30 countries around the world. (See Annex 10 for a detailed list.) We expect the current rate of demand for our services to continue for the foreseeable future.

WHY DO GOVERNMENTS OF DEVELOPING AND FORMER SOVIET NATIONS CALL ON THE ILD?

The ILD addresses the most pressing economic and social problem they face: the failure of current market-oriented reforms to benefit the majority of the population.

The ILD provides heads of state with a straightforward and non-ideological explanation for why even the most well-intentioned market reforms will fail: their nations lack a property law that is accessible to the poor and that allows both physical and intellectual assets to be converted into capital.

The ILD provides a manageable program for building an inclusive property system that focuses on the needs of the poor and middle classes and provides nations with strategies to build widespread support for the reforms and to overcome the resistance of vested interests.

Reports out of New Orleans--now catching the edge of Rita's 'wet corner'--are that the levee repairs are already "over-topping" and the ninth ward is already waist-deep in floodwater again.

Just before that New Orleans report, a commercial from "Families for Peace" aired on CNBC--a half dozen women one at a time, in extreme close-up, several carrying infants, looking into the camera, addressing President Bush, telling him of their husband or son, KIA in Iraq, and asking him why he did this to them, "...since Iraq had no WMD, and had nothing to do with 911".

The reason the US chose not to attack Saudi Arabia is because that act would have provoked the active hostility of every Muslim in the world. Osama was counting on that, but Bush was smart enough not to give it to him. Imagine a total oil embargo on the West, nuclear armed Pakistan run by Islamists (Musharref would have been toppled), the Iranians cutting off the Straits of Hormuz, etc, and the US trying to fight a war in Saudi not knowing which members of the huge royal family were on our side? Not a very charming scenario!

The grand strategy of war is to attack your enemy not where he is strongest, but where he is weakest. Did the US enter WWII by making an amphibious landing on German & Japanese beaches? No we started in North Africa & the South Pacific.

Likewise, Iraq is a beach head in the Middle East. The ethnic & religious divisions have caused ripples into their neighbours. The situation inside Saudi has become more polarized and the gov't is now taking the fight against A-Q seriously.

I have been wondering for some time why the New York Times can't get a military expert to post a running analysis of operations in Iraq. A daily that flatters itself as the newspaper of record, all the news that's fit to print and all that jazz, should have a military expert during a time of war, someone who can walk the lay reader through the data streaming in from a confusing and messy place. Instead, they approach the military operations as political events, highlighting their effects on Washington but ignoring their effects on the ground.

A military analysis inculcates sobriety, so perhaps that is why. Any expert worth his salt would know that this is a winnable war--a blacklisted opinion at the Gray Lady. Anything blatantly pro-American is bias, regardless of its truth.

If any subject offers pro-Americanism, it is the subject of war. Hence, no military experts.

"As for blood, you omit the 14,900 wounded so far. And the 6,800 injured by disease and accidents directly associated with Iraq ops. It's OK to fixate only on the killed, since that is the only number the media cares about, but the cost is high in terms of people who would have died of wounds or injuries in past wars. Mush of those that would be dead in the past do not "recover" - but survive in permanent full or partial impairment. The ratio of dead to seriously injured was 1:3 in WWII, 1:4 in Vietnam, and 1:9 in Iraq."

You are completely wrong. Of the 14,265 wounded, 7686 recovered/returned to duty in 3 days or less. Another 3500 returned to duty within 3 weeks. Permenently or partually disabled is running at about 6.5% of wounded or about 900 so far, much less than the number dead

please understand that I spent years working with a Top Secret clearance on Top Secret efforts, and I DO KNOW of valid reasons for witholding all sorts of information from the general public! A more mature perceptual set would serve you well, Cedarford.

Carradine, maybe up to a 6th of the people posting on Wretchard's Belmont have a top secret background or in civilian jobs of equivalent responsibility, so as a former holder of a Top Secret (w/ temporary clearance for compartmentalized info above Top Secret on rare, rare occasions) - my response is this:

*raises index finger in mid-air and twirls it*

Thank God, our government wasnt LYING to us.

No. No. Of course our Government NEVER lies to us!

cjr - Permenently or partually disabled is running at about 6.5% of wounded or about 900 so far, much less than the number dead.

I'd like a citation on that. I also add that disability paperwork follows conclusion of most medical treatment and discharge from the Reserves or active duty.

The SP4 that had half his face and both hands blown away by an IED is not formally "disabled", as he is still learning how to work his hooks and only half-way through skull and facial reconstruction.

Given the casualties I've seen on two hospital visits, plus info that there are 3 maimings for every death, your rate of 6.5% sounds as inappropriately optimistic as your touting 1,900 deaths as "almost bloodless".

Buddy - I am off contract today and watching New Orleans reflood. I agree it is discouraging - the US seems to be having to eat one shit sandwich after another. Next will be Bush saying that 200 billion, 300 billion more is a small cost to "make Texans whole - no, even better than before" along with gasoline, jet fuel, home heating oil all going above 5 dollars a gallon.

"Please sir, Mr Bush, might I have another shit sandwich???"

"OK. How about repealing the tax on multimillionaire estates so your children will pay back China for the money borrowed so FEMA can rebuild below sea level ghettos and hand out 250,000 checks to rich people who built their dream homes on barrier islands in hurricane alley, and 5,000 dollar checks for every "victim" from NOLA felons to the dentist in Baton Rouge that has a few shingles torn off his office? Shit sandwich enough?"

The lefts's (or whatever Cedarford may classify him or herself as) argument that U.S. foreign policy should be based on the premise that no American ever be killed or wounded in the application of that policy is nonsense. American soldiers die so that other Americans may live in freedom. This is the undeniable history of this nation. Each life is important. Each soldier who made the ultimate sacrifice in this struggle is a U.S. hero. These men and women should be highly honored by our society.

The claim that U.S. casualties in this struggle are so high as to merit retreat is total nonsense.

The rate at the end of 2004 for those applying for disability related to the war in Afghanistan and Iraq was 16% of the 166,334 who had separated from the service. And that leaves the Schiavoized, the paralyzed, the crispy critters, colostomy-bagged, the limbless, and the ones with missing facial features now carried on active duty payrolls until they are separated from the service still not factored in.

A soldier is not counted as "disabled" for VA stats until actual separation from the service happpens. As reports go, while the miracles of modern medicine allow a disabled person to be functional with prothesis in certain lower limb amps, it also saved people so maimed they would have died in Vietnam, so they add to the 100% disabled figures and will likely mean a final disability rate higher than Vietnams...

The veteran disability rate in Vietnam was 24.7% of the 303,704 wounded.

EX-democrat. Unlike you, it seems, I am intelligent enough to research what I say.

Buddy Larsen - I share your chagrin. Since last summer, it seems that from Iraq to the weather, the USA has been fed one shit sandwich after another. Rita? Gas, diesel, jet fuel, home heating oil may all go above 4 dollars a gallon, maybe 5.....and natural gas will be 70-120% higher than last year. We now know Bush's people had done little to allow us to respond better to a natural or terrorist disaster after 9/11 despite the 100's of bilions spent on crony's contracts and expanding the size of the Fed Gov't 40%.

Eventually the shit sandwich run of luck will end, but we still have 400 billion in hurricane funds our children will pay China for to mostly squander, first. Amd more bad news out of Iraq if the Constitution is rejected by the Sunni voters...And who knows what else will come up to show more Bush Administration cronyism and incompetence???

Carradine...(I have a Top Security clearance!!)

So do or did about 1/6th of the people that post on Wretchard's Belmont Club - or civilian equivalents to that level of trust, ability..So my response to your "Top Secret" clearance, having had one myself with unwilling upgrade to above TS "compartmentalized" info is this:

Well, of COURSE death and maiming are tragedies--the choice, however, is apparently--by the evidence--not between death and maiming versus no death or maiming, but rather--thanks to the actions of the enemy--between whether the dead and maimed are heroic volunteers willing to sacrifice for some motivating idea or principle in the furtherance of their country's foreign policy, or ordinary civilians of all ages and genders, at work, or trying to get there, or go home. GWoT KIAsd currently equal two-thirds of 911 KAW ("killed-at-work"), and that's just the one terror incident. had those two thousand KIA soldiers not been fighting them, how many KAWs would we have by now? 20,000? 200,000? Bin Laden says 4 million is his goal (and that's just Americans).

So, isn't it correct to say that the death and maiming are by our choice, anyway? That it's gonna happen on this planet, as of the current era, anyway? That our choice is only to either influence the activity, or not?

Gentiles could at least surrender their country to a Hitler, and not have to worry about their loved ones getting decapped with a goat-skinning knife at the whim of a neighborhood holy man.

C4, the national debt-to-equity ratio is low-normal, and will stay that way even under present trends. Your fright numbers are shaved off an eleven-plus trillion-dollar economy that is growing at 3 to 4%/yr. Sure, trend lines are saw-toothed as hell, but only an ignoramus or a propagandist tries to sell the saw-teeth while staying mute about the angle of the blade itself.

And as far as the hurricane pork--I wish you'd criticize something besides the macro-idea itself, which is to put enough money into out-of-work pockets to bring the businesses back on line to offer the goods for sale that will allow a repopulation of an area that could otherwise--in a short period of time--lose its most productive people to other areas which now offer better prospects. Most of the Katrina rural-area damage has been mired in just that sort of no-velocity, no-output, no-tax-recpt small-holder subsistance economy, ever since Cabeza de Vaca or whoever waded ashore, and right up until only the last couple decades. It's easy to fall back, far and hard, once the 20% (of the 80/20 rule) decide to take their insurance nut and capitalize it elsewhere.

Heh! I thought a computer bug wiped out my intial post so I rewrote it after looking up whether or not cjr was blowing smoke.

Naron deserves a response:

1. Cedarford may classify him or herself as) argument that U.S. foreign policy should be based on the premise that no American ever be killed or wounded in the application of that policy is nonsense.

No one ever said that. Least of all me. Might be the voices in Naron's head. I supported going into Iraq. We took out Saddam and resolved the WMD issue. Now we are simply in nation building and preventing terrorists from filling the power vacuum we created. But I do not support an interminable occupation where we spend 100 billion dollars a year and 7,000 casualties primarily to prevent squabbling Iraqi shitheads from going at each other's throats instead of ours.

2. American soldiers die so that other Americans may live in freedom. This is the undeniable history of this nation.

No, the actual history of the nation shows that sometimes soldiers die for a noble cause that safeguards American freedom and security, sometimes for stupidity, sometimes so democratically elected foreign rabble do not cut the profits of oil companies or the US Fruit Co.

3. Each life is important.

Yes or no? Is each life important enough that we should hold someone accountable for the botched postwar planning that cost us hundreds of lives by allowing a full-blown insurgency to form, or forgetting to equip an Army for occupation rather than high speed maneuver warfare? Or are those lives not so important that anyone's career and lucrative position in DC's revolving door be jeopardized by introducing accountibility into the Bushie Crowd. Other than "Brownie", who fell on his own sword when his resume` deceit was disclosed, the only career repercussions have been for cronies that were disloyal to the White House or Pentagon Party Line. In war, was our intervention in Vietnam's civil war worth 58,000 dead and 400,000 casualties? Was it worth it? Lives being important, but not so important they couldn't be shed for geostrategic chess? Many say no.

4. Each soldier who made the ultimate sacrifice in this struggle is a U.S. hero.

Heroes all?

Of sorts. If you loosely use the term hero.

We greatly overuse the term "hero" in the USA, where everyone in the profession of teaching, police work, firefighting, military, doctors, nurses, etc. is commonly referred to as a "hero". We also ignore people in risky jobs - riskier than being a cop for example - but absolutely indispensible to life and civilization - like our miners, farmers, truckers, ironworkers, etc.

The military itself has it right. They distinguish between honor for risky service, even death or wounding in the process - and real heroism - with medals that distinguish between the two.

Serve honorably and well, do your duty, you get a good conduct award. Get wounded or killed without showing extraordinary bravery or true feats of prowness in combat and you get a purple heart. Maybe a Bronze Star with no "V" attachment. The "V" is for heroic valor, accomplishment and is indicative the military still rationally distinguishes between risk of being a victim - then becoming one - and being a hero. Victims are not heroes. People that do their duty are not heroes. Most Vets do not consider themselves "America's heroes". All firefighters killed in the line of duty are not heroes except to the folks saying that they all are to pander to the masses.

People that go above and beyond their expected duty - a function of military or civilian risk adjusted for job compensation benefits or accepting that risk - those that go above and beyond in the face of danger are heroes of valor or accomplishment beyond expectations in the face of danger. People like Rick Rescorla or Michael Von's Colonel.

And heroes of valor are distinct from heroes of high performance in their relatively risk-free professions. My spouse thinks Dr. Phil is a hero, as are all teachers and "nurturing caregivers". My son called Dave Navarro of Jane's Addiction a hero, along with Cal Ripken, Jr.

Cedarfard said: Was it worth it? Lives being important, but not so important they couldn't be shed for geostrategic chess? Many say no.

And many say yes. Many understand that those lives and the lives of many others will be lost regardless. So better to play "geostrategic chess", and play to win. September 11th, and other examples show this assessment to be correct. You say victims are not heroes. But you would have us be willing victims of Jihadist propaganda. Your copy & pasting of Pallywood and other Jihadist propaganda here and at other sites that haven't yet had you banned, doesn't take THAT MUCH intelligence. It takes even less intelligence to believe this Jihadist dissimulation as sincere.

"The ILD has received requests from the political leadership of some 30 countries around the world ."---Charles,- I hereby request that the ILD buy Justice Souter's house, and grant it, along with permission to develop a Native Hawaiian Casino Project on said property, to me.

It's all about accountability - really. Good accountants get paid handsome salaries for setting up proceedures that make in difficult for each person involved a set of transactions to "get away" with activity not part of the intended purpose. We in the US have placed an enourmous amount of trust in our institutions (that is the folks who manage, operate, function within) to behave as intended. But when the proceedures for oversite become absent, many times things go awry. People who function without being held accountable sometimes violate that trust. We are creatures who have a fallen nature. The human condition hasn't changed since Genesis 3. Those who tend to have the hardest time with accountablity are ones at the top. They either have no one to hold them accountble or those that are placed in that role are either intimidated or overcome with adoration for their leader. The proceedures must be maintained, both here and in the new Iraqi experiment, to hold those in places of power to accountability. Our democracry does so innately when properly functioning. Until we get the Iraqis up to speed with such things,and I'm not saying that will be quick nor easy, we will continue to hear stories about corruption and graft - costing US & them. We should expect our leaders - and those we fund - to set up and maintain an environment of control and accountabilty amidst the attacks.

"The veteran disability rate in Vietnam was 24.7% of the 303,704 wounded."Damn that high tech medicine, Damn it all to Hell!---C4:"Better Dead than Partially Bled"I say:Better Partially Bled than Dead .(some, like LTC Kurilla, make great spokesmen for the PFS [purple fingered .........])

The ARVN and the US military held International Communism in-situ for a crucial decades during which time the area economies--the so-called Asian Tigers-- became strong enough to resist, and indeed, even strong enough to contribute powerfully to the collapse of morale that ended the global communist militarist expansion.

"No, the actual history of the nation shows that sometimes soldiers die for a noble cause that safeguards American freedom and security, sometimes for stupidity, sometimes so democratically elected foreign rabble do not cut the profits of oil companies"---C4 writes, ..on his Solar Powered Apple SmackinToss, from the comfort of his air-conditioned study.

- I hereby request that the ILD buy Justice Souter's house, and grant it, along with permission to develop a Native Hawaiian Casino Project on said property, to me.

Thanx,Duke

1:08 PM

//////////////Doug,You're not part of the plan. The plan is to make native hawaiians--ie anyone with 1/8th or octoroon native hawaiian blood the master race in Hawaii thereby deserving of tribute by whites,japanese etc on account of Native Hawaiian special nativity. Now nobody can hurt the new uber hawaiians because they will be protected, paid for, and given their sovereignty by all the other races. And this is just and right because when they dance, the native hawaiian women knead the ground with their feet. And their men's songs wail with great desire. Who can say no? The native hawaiians do have beautiful songs and dances. They are holy in their sanctuaries. Mystic mysteries are there you know.

Doug - One pays visits to Vets hospitals as part of the Lions Club, VFW. The Junior League, Chamber of Commerce, and other service/business organizations are also visiting, helping in home rehab, rehab setup, and assisting in family paperwork, and transition job hunting.

Rather than belittling visits, Doug, perhaps you could lift your butt out of a chair and try it sometime.

Even my neighbor's 16-year old kid decided to do something more than Blog. He mows two deployed Reservists lawns for free. Just as he did last summer for the single Mom of a kid who died over there in an accident in Kuwait and one of the Reservists redeployed this year.

***************Buddy Larsen -

GWoT KIAsd currently equal two-thirds of 911 KAW ("killed-at-work"), and that's just the one terror incident. had those two thousand KIA soldiers not been fighting them, how many KAWs would we have by now? 20,000? 200,000?

Who knows? What if we invaded Saudi Arabia instead? How many civilian lives would that stunt cost or save? What about 4 new simultaneous wars in Syria, Iran, KSA, and Yemen to join the Afghanistan and Iraq War then Buddy? Would that make us safer under your logic of "distracting the terrorists"???

As for the Bin Laden says 4 million is his goal (and that's just Americans).

Well, if Binnie is that dangerous, and I don't think he is - wouldn't it have made more sense to have kept special forces and pressure on the Paks at full strength in 2002 and 2003 rather than pulling the elite troops and dissipating our sway in Pakistan by going after Iraq?

BTW, the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) released a Report concluding only 4-10% of insurgents are foreign fighters, only 12% come from Saudi Arabia, few have any past involvement with terror groups. We are learning from interrogations the typical foreign fighter is a middle class man from a conservative Algerian tribe or Yemeni, Syrian, Sudanese one who journeys to Jihad based on America occupying a Muslim country and from media / al Jazeera propaganda saying the Americans are in the wrong. Not to regain a 7th Century Islamic life under a Wahabbi Caliphate. Most foreign fighters caught are not Salafists.

So the idea that fighting in Iraq is tying the "evildoers" down "so they don't kill us here" is looking like talking point Bush bunkum.

Most Americans killed or maimed were at the hands of Sunni Iraqis who do not want to be subjugated by the people they subjugated for 1200 years. The remainder have been killed by a small number of foreign fighters, most who have nothing to do with terrorism but with "liberating Iraq from it's Zionist-Crusader liberators". Most believe America invaded Iraq to further Israel's interests or get it's oil.

Saudi Arabia believes they have taken out more Al Qaeda hardcore followers in KSA, and the American taken out more AQ in Afghanistan in 2003-2005, than the Americans have bagged in Iraq.

**********

Another development is Saudi Arabian leaders (and Jordan) are becoming more forthcoming with their counsel given to America before we went into Iraq. Both countries say they warned in the strongest possible terms that their knowledge of Iraq, their intelligence - was that America would face a fierce insurgency. Same advice as France, Russia, Syria gave the Bush Administration.

But the Bushies chose to believe the dreams of the Neocons and the conniving calculations of the Iraqi exiles - who said "cakewalk". Even the Brits thought there would be a world of shit facing whoever ended up in the Sunni triangle. Which is why they asked for and got the southern & relatively safe Shiite area..

The Saudi Foreign Minister also added that most ME countries have concluded the odds now say Iraq will be unable to get a workable Constitution voted in and will break out in Civil war with money and arms flowing in from the outside until enough war is waged for 3 entities to form areas with defined borders and none of the other 2 groups living there - out of the former Iraq.

C4 said,"Or, a nation of bloodthirsty, mostly incompetent ....heads from another point of view.""- the US seems to be having to eat one s... sandwich after another"."Please sir, Mr Bush, might I have another s... sandwich???""S... sandwich enough?"

"Oh yes, that will do fine!""Since last summer, it seems that from Iraq to the weather, the USA has been fed one s... sandwich after another.""Eventually the s... sandwich run of luck will end,""...primarily to prevent squabbling Iraqi s...heads from going at each other's throats instead of ours."

"Even the Brits thought there would be a world of sh.. facing..."(he mumbled, drunkenly)hmmm,The study of words leads to the study of s...And the troubling trend does not seem to be the cumulative total, but but that it's frequency of use as the thread progresses seems disasymptotically inclined toward infinity.

Cedarford said, "If 3 Sunni Provinces in Iraq vote to reject the Constitution, it's rejected as a National Constitution."

That's not quite right. The constitution can be rejected if 3 or more provinces reject the constitution with a no vote of 2/3rds or greater in each province. While Anbar will certainly vote no by more the 2/3rds, I'm not so sure you'll get another two provinces.

What will be interesting to watch is how the terrorist react to Sunnis being encouraged to vote. If the idiots threaten to blow up polling places again, it's likely to dampen turnout in Sunni areas than anywhere else.

Doug, one can't help but wonder if there isn't some envious regard for those who have ended up, thanks to their own top dogs, perhaps the world's biggest mangeurs de la merde, i.e. the Palis (though by certain measures they are better off than many other Arabs who must enjoy a religiously and ethnically purer shit). For some, life just isn't meaningful if you're not in the thick of it. Have we ever heard from him a word of love for the finer things of this world? I can't recall; it seems it is always someone forcing us to eat crap or catch wind. Well, sometimes one can barely deny the mimetic forces at play in our lives.

Jihadis will lose this war because they're only good at barking and passing wind. America will win this war because it is good at basic economic and military operations and wars that give them context.

C4, I commend your visits to the recuperant vets (tho I can picture entire floors, after auditing your commentary, hiding under beds, leaping out of windows, beeping for morphine, etcetera).

But I answer in order to point out how your "Harmless Binnie" comment resembles the joke "What are you doing?""I'm keeping the elephants away." "But there's no elephants around here!""Right! Doing a good job, ain't I?"

IOW, IMHO, you're now able to joke, dimunize the name, trivialize the game, and generally crack wise on the war effort precisely because of the war effort; because of the efforts of those soldiers whose work you find so misapplied and Bush-contrived.

And whether or not your politically-nuanced foreign-fighter, typical profile commentary is true (with lots of noise on this subject, I go with the troops' observations, which are "first-hand"), what would be our alternative to taking a chance on creating more jihadists by fighting the jihadists? There can be but one: to NOT fight the jihadists.

I find the notion that a constitution rejected principally by Sunni 'no' votes will cause Sunnis to take to the gun somewhat counter-intuitive.

On the contrary, a constitution rejected and sent back to the drawing board primarily by Sunni 'no' votes would be tremendously empowering for them -- as forceful a demonstration as any of the benefits of participation in their nation's political process. They already know they missed an oppostunity by sitting out the last elections.

Conversely, I believe a constitution approved over Sunni objections (no votes) will leave them feeling disenfranchised (wrongly, of course -- this is democracy) and, hence, more likely to take to the gun.

And something else, C4, you just said that "fight there so we don't have to fight 'em here" is Bush-baloney, yet in rearlier posts you've waxed wroth over the dangers of jihadis coming accross our Bush's-fault open southern border. So, which is it, what's it gonna be? Do you have beliefs, or do you merely deploy tactical rebuttals that need not cohere, that need only win the current blog-post tilt?

"The Saudi Foreign Minister also added that most ME countries have concluded the odds now say Iraq will be unable to get a workable Constitution voted in and will break out in Civil war with money and arms flowing in from the outside until enough war is waged for 3 entities to form areas with defined borders and none of the other 2 groups living there - out of the former Iraq."

Let me just say, Cedarford, that not only will none of those things happen, but when they do happen it will be blown all out of proportion by the complicit liberal media just prior to being identified here as positive developments that only appear negative to those who aren't bright enough to understand that nothing happens which isn't part of The Double Good Triple Secret Master Plan.

I wanted to post a link to some CNN Video of Honore when he arrived in Houston, but can't find.He was dressed and coifed to the nines and had that smug smile that said he was aware that he has indeed arrived.To a nation starved of straight talk.. STUCK ON STUPID.And we understand that there's a problem in getting communications out. That's where we need your help. But let's not confuse the questions with the answers.Buses at the convention center will move our citizens, for whom we have sworn that we will support and defend...and we'll move them on. Let's not get stuck on the last storm. You're asking last storm questions for people who are concerned about the future storm.Don't get stuck on stupid, reporters. We are moving forward. And don't confuse the people please. You are part of the public message. So help us get the message straight. And if you don't understand, maybe you'll confuse it to the people. That's why we like follow-up questions. But right now, it's the convention center, and move on.

Tarzana Joe will be posting a great poem about Stuck on Stupid.One of Hugh's callers is selling T-Shirts.Radio Blogger contest features Mr.Atosand another blogger on topic.. Stuck on Stupid

"C4 and john kerry, two who especially depend on the kindness of strangers' amnesia (apologies to tennesse williams)."---Headline (On the Radio):"JPL Scientist says Gulf may be headed for heavy hurricanes."Well duh, says I, but turns out he was talking about cycles, and fact that gulf has not had a big one in over 20 years....then I realized how HARD it is not to forget that it is only a matter of some *more* time when it has been a LONG time....and so EASY to "believe" its all in the past now. (Over 10 years here.)But time marches on, as does reality, generational, or any other kind of pleasant amnesia notwithstanding.---So nice to pretend Bush and the neocons are responding to NOTHING but the madness in their minds.

Buddy, 6.16, to my mind, he's all tactics, no strategy. This is because the would-be strategy is equivalent to tactics: never stop (complaining about) the coprophagia. If your whole life is defined around the resentment that you have to eat (jewish) shit, well then getting rid of all the defecators won't make you happy; rather it will leave you lost, identityless. Anticipating this lost future in sober moments leaves one yet more resentful and in need of ever greater and hotter dung heaps to forestall that cold reality. This time the Zionists have really done it!!! And the Chinese are fertilizing their fields with it!!! And Walmart is selling it!!!

Well, Trish, the problem of three Iraqs has only been preoccupying senior analysts at every foreign ministry on the planet, for about 80 years now. But, news is news, hey?

Wars don't happen when one side or the other has a guaranteed win.

Read your von Clauswitz--bacwards maybe. The fact that everything is up for grabs until it isn't, is precisely why for a year or two now I've argued with C4's cynicism, condescension, assignment of all possible vile motives to the war leadership, and continual stream of cherry-picked semi-statistics. Because I can't see any reason to even bother to have a foreign policy if we're going to commit suicide anyway.

So, you two may well be right--we may well lose this thing. I don't know why you guys always approach the notion so delighted with your own insight, it ain't exactly an arcane concept, everybody from GWB and the Joint Chiefs on down to every school kid on the planet knows that in a fight somebody's got to lose.

If the other side is supermen then surely it'll be us that quits. And then you and C4 can pop the champagne and get back to work on your plans to expand the Democratic Party, a la the 70s, amid the demoralization of a defeated west.

We may be a rouged corpse, but we'll be your rouged corpse, right? And that's better than all this, this nerve-wracking war that is all our fault.

Cedarford asks if Viet Nam was worth 58,000 and 400,000 wounded .I say hell yeah.I didn't catch any more lead there than a couple slivers in my arm from a booby trap,but watched a buddy catch an RPD round in the throat six inches away from me and other incidents too distant to mention. I appreciate Buddy Larsen's grand scheme explanation about holding off totalitarianism until Asian Tigers could flourish.Makes sense to me.I have a more esoteric explanation why it was worth it and why Iraq is worth it.In Viet Nam I served with some of the finest men I ever have met.They didn't hardly grace the ivy walls of Harvard or become media superstars.They were gang bangers from Philly,factory kids from Erie Pa,chicanos from the southwest,big tobacco chewing machinegunners from the hills of Tennesee.They were fine men because they went to war willingly or as conscripts because they bought our national myths that freedom is worth laying it all down for.Just like these wonderful man children in Fallujah and Mosul.They believe Semper Fi and prove it in spades.Cedarford,you're possibly the smartest guy in the room,but your stew has the poison root of cynicism in it.Your thoughts cast disdain on far better men than you and show you to be very small indeed.

Trangbang, man, you said it. Remember Janis Joplin--"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"? Believing that makes it true. But if you refuse that enticing come-hither, and as you say, lay it all on the line for belief in something, then maybe you're only 19 and it's nothing more than belief in belief itself, but live or die you've joined up with the finest, the shield, the selfless protectors who give their people the chance to build meaning into their culture, and their individual lives. AKA "freedom". As Condi says about democracy, it's less a thing than it is a process, a way of thinking and living.

And, thank you for your service, Trangbang. It may not be clear to those who think that things are how they are just by accident, but others know different.

The lyrics were written by Kris Kristofferson, a Rhodes Scholar whose artistic drive and Hollywood success exactly belies the bittersweet surrender of his writing.

Bringing to mind yet another object lesson in living a lie, the legions of working and middle class boomers kids who listened to their gurus and tuned in, turned on, dropped out, and sobered up two decades later as 40 yr old unemployable street people, when they realized that all that advice was coming from show-biz acts which had big royalty checks rolling in on the first of every month.

My Sandmen.Mountains of rock become grains of sand to be once again welded as rock. The cycle is both perpetual and necessary. Likewise ideas must be broken down periodically into their fundamental elements to be reassembled as sound pillars of guidance and virtue. The cycle of men is like that of sand.

"As I attempt to keep track of the progress of Hurricane Rita (from vacation) a clear and disturbing trend is being revealed in the American psyche... the obsession with failure.

The coverage of Hurricane Katrina was nothing if not a constant lecture on failure by everyone in the media... EVERYONE.

While the MSM focused attention on every myth about the Federal response to the extent of ignoring a total collapse in some of the regional response, the 'New Media' was obliged to concentrate its attention on the failure of that local response. And the nation was treated to a pathetic exercise in self-flagellation from both."Atos' Sandman---Compare THAT with my SOS Honore post above!

About the Picts. The warriors with the blue tatoos. Not celts, nor the Romans, nor the saxons, nor the norse beat them. They dissapeared as a people after 845 A.D. said reason being "MacAlpin's Treason".

Now only their runestones remained until lately.

Archaeologists have been digging up the bones of a Pictish monk they call the 'Tarbat Man'for he was found on the grounds of the Tarbat Old Church one of the most important Pictish sites in Scotland.

Only in the midst of excitement like this would I fail to roast NRO editor Rich Lowry for an eyebrow-raiser like this one today: "I didn't realize Houston is the fourth largest city in the country. Yes, I need to get off the East Coast more." There's got to be a great zinger waiting to be flung back at him for that, but I'm too distracted to think of it today.

If this becomes the most boring post I ever write, that'll be okay.Beldar

Buddy still doesn't get it: And something else, C4, you just said that "fight there so we don't have to fight 'em here" is Bush-baloney, yet in rearlier posts you've waxed wroth over the dangers of jihadis coming accross our Bush's-fault open southern border. So, which is it, what's it gonna be? Do you have beliefs, or do you merely deploy tactical rebuttals that need not cohere, that need only win the current blog-post tilt?

Well, Buddy, lets do a simple logic exercise.

1. Al Qaeda exists. Yes?2. Other Salafist groups of radical Islamists exist. Yes?3. If the Saudis, French, Russians, and even our own intelligence (which is NOT going to cross the Bush Party Line) all believe the vast majority of those killed by Our troops are native Iraqis with no ties to terrorist groups, or foreign fighters with no previous terror leanings simply on Jihad against the foreign occupier......

Then where are the real Al Qaeda hanging out? Afghanistan? Pakistan? KSA? Iran? The UK? Yemen? Sudan & 15 other African nations? Indonesia? Brazil? Canada? USA? Yes Yes and Yes. But we are putting out the myth that they all decided to journey to Iraq.

4. Wouldn't it make sense to recruit and rebuild your strength after the Americans surprised you in Afghanistan and knocked off 60% of your people? And occasionally infiltrating open societies to commit spectacular acts? Ensuring that Salafism and Wahabbism spread unchecked throughout the West to create more Radical Islamist allies? And target moderate Muslim nations like Turkey, Morocco, Indonesia for radicalization? More sense, perhaps, than taking on the prepared US military warrior with superiority in most areas over any foe in the field? Which is why the British haven for radical Islamists and our Open Borders are both very, very bad ideas. Or do you still believe the Bush crap despite the Center for Strategic International Studies and most nations calling it BS - that Al Qaeda and offshoots are avoiding rebuilding their strength and infiltrating vulnerable nations and instead expending all their good fighters, recruiters, finaciers, and leaders in Iraq - like stupid flies drawn to Bush's clever - and repeatedly publically announced - fly trap?

5. We have taken out some real terrorists in Iraq, but not many, by all counts. Most insurgents that have slaughtered and maimed Americans are not foreign terrorists but Iraqis fighting the Occupier. Of the foreign fighters, most on interrogation are found not to share Binnie's goals of new KSA leadership, but went to Iraq to fight the "pawns of the Jews". Their host countries find they were not on their terror watch lists, but were for the most part traditional Muslims manipulated & cycled up by local preachers or Al Jazeera to leave on a quest for Jihad in Iraq to engage in holy and just war against the USA. A country which they are told will steal Iraq oil, give it to Israel, or Americans torture Iraqis as a rule and rape their women.

6. A country that before the US invaded had little radical Islamist presence. Confirmed by all the interviews and documents so far not broadly communicated to the public because it is another "Ooops!" in our rationale for war.

7. But surely even you Buddy see it would make sense for them to insert limited resources to back the native Iraqis in their struggle, knowing that you are achieving a divide in the resolve of the American public, and have already helped bleed them of an extra 150 billion dollars through harassing actions in Postwar Iraq?

************Well, that's logic Buddy. Other countries are using it saying that the real terrorists have given aid and support and a few dozen hardened combat leaders/bomb makers to the Iraq struggle - but their real work lies elsewhere. Especially while the US is bogged down and still suffering a massive loss in trust and respect in the Muslim world. And logic would dictate we not let radical Wahabbi preachers in calling for infidel death from their Mosque pulpits. And watch our Borders despite Bush wanting them open so wages can be lowered as his CEO benefactors demanded. And our logic would dictate that after 4 years it might be time to start becoming serious about ending the Israel-Pal dispute, launching strategic communications, rediscovering diplomacy and the value of real allies besides the UK and Australia and a few East European nations. This war cannot be won with soldiers, especially soldiers caught in a undeclared civil war in one nation once known along with Bahrain and Tunisia as the most secular of all Arab countries.

Massive loss of trust in the Muslim World. hmmm"7. But surely even you Buddy see it would make sense for them to insert limited resources to back the native Iraqis in their struggle, knowing that you are achieving a divide in the resolve of the American public"---C4, I agree w/you about borders and Mosques, but...Can you see no logic in Iraq wrtSyria, S.A., Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan, and etc?...and if you have a plan to wrap up Pakistan, Iran, and/or S.A.please do tell.

heh heh...very good C4. The bad ones are not in Iraq at all, they are here--or can be, at will, due to our open society.

Yet they have not struck since 911.

Reckon that an expeditionary force which has already knocked over two regimes and sits one violable border away from several others, might have encouraged those others to check their AQ secret services? With a "For Allah's SAKE don't you DARE rile those people again!"

Your own didactic exersize in bringing my pore dum ass up to snuff dictates exactly this particular success of the primary war goal: No More 911s.

The president will appreciate your dawning comprehension of a subtlety that has heretofore eluded you.

Cedarford:The WaPo are full of crap.At the April 2004 the total number of troops evacuated for any reason from Iraq and Af was 11470+670. Yet the WaPo, says that by April 2004, 26,000 are claiming benefits. Are we to believe that there are >2 benefit claims for every solidier evacuated?Where the WaPo got it wrong is that 26000 is the total number claiming benefits in the entire army whether they went to Iraq or not.

You thought the leaden winter would bring you down forever, But you rode upon a steamer to the violence of the sun.

And the colors of the sea blind your eyes with trembling mermaids, And you touch the distant beaches with tales of brave Ulysses: How his naked ears were tortured by the sirens sweetly singing, For the sparkling waves are calling you to kiss their white laced lips.

And you see a girl's brown body dancing through the turquoise, And her footprints make you follow where the sky loves the sea. And when your fingers find her, she drowns you in her body, Carving deep blue ripples in the tissues of your mind.

The tiny purple fishes run laughing through your fingers, And you want to take her with you to the hard land of the winter.

Her name is Aphrodite and she rides a crimson shell, And you know you cannot leave her for you touched the distant sands With tales of brave Ulysses; how his naked ears were tortured By the sirens sweetly singing.

The tiny purple fishes run lauging through your fingers, And you want to take her with you to the hard land of the winter.

Then where are the real Al Qaeda hanging out? Afghanistan? Pakistan? KSA? Iran? The UK? Yemen? Sudan & 15 other African nations? Indonesia? Brazil? Canada? USA? Yes Yes and Yes. But we are putting out the myth that they all decided to journey to Iraq.

No. The real myth is that all Jihadists are Al Qaeda. Jihad is the umbrella ideology of al Qaeda. ME oil is the factor that keeps that ideology alive. Iraq is a central pivot in wrestling that oil from Jihadist control. Then comes Iran. And then comes Saudia.

As you've been advises several times in this thread alone, C4, you need to try to achieve a little perspective: 911s are what we cannot tolerate.

Loss-of-life aside, Katrina and GWoT together will cost (realized+projected) somewhere between 10 and 20% of the direct 911 dollar-loss.

And the direct losses wouldn't even be the primary effect of serial 911s. The primary effect would be the effect on the national psyche, on an economic and social system which rests upon optimism and confidence.

This effect, if somehow dollarized, would shrink even that small fraction far down (theoretically, in time, to near zero--in the case of several back-to-back 911s, and the promise of more of them endlessly, actually causing some sort of capitulation, and bringing down our system of government).

"Sometimes, I feel so low-down and disgustedCan't help but wonder what's happenin' to my companions,Are they lost or are they found, have they counted the cost it'll take to bring downAll their earthly principles they're gonna have to abandon?There's a slow, slow train comin' up around the bend...

All that foreign oil controlling American soil,Look around you, it's just bound to make you embarrassed.Sheiks walkin' around like kings, wearing fancy jewels and nose rings,Deciding America's future from Amsterdam and to ParisAnd there's a slow, slow train comin' up around the bend...

Man's ego is inflated, his laws are outdated, they don't apply no more,You can't rely no more to be standin' around waitin'In the home of the brave, Jefferson turnin' over in his grave,Fools glorifying themselves, trying to manipulate SatanAnd there's a slow, slow train comin' up around the bend.

Big-time negotiators, false healers and woman haters,Masters of the bluff and masters of the propositionBut the enemy I see wears a cloak of decency,All non-believers and men stealers talkin' in the name of religionAnd there's a slow, slow train comin' up around the bend."

To clarify, C4, if spending 200 billion saves losing two trillion (even once) you've made an enterprise-saving investment. That's what you never ever allow into your turgid prolixity, that the enemy has a vote, and has cast that vote thousands of times over thirty years, including once that forced recognition of the existential stakes that he (not we) has put in play.

What thou lovest well remains, the rest is drossWhat thou lov'st well shall not be reft from theeWhat thou lov'st well is thy true heritageWhose world, or mine or theirs or is it of none?First came the seen, then thus the palpableElysium, though it were in the halls of hell,What thou lovest well is thy true heritageWhat thou lov'st well shall not be reft from thee

The ant's a centaur in his dragon world.Pull down thy vanity, it is not manMade courage, or made order, or made grace, Pull down thy vanity, I say pull down.Learn of the green world what can be thy placeIn scaled invention or true artistry,Pull down thy vanity,Paquin pull down!The green casque has outdone your elegance.

But to have done instead of not doing This is not vanityTo have, with decency, knockedThat a Blunt should open To have gathered from the air a live traditionor from a fine old eye the unconquered flamethis is not vanity. Here error is all in the not done,all in the diffidence that faltered . . .

Making a Sabine Pass. Sabine (Sabinium in Latin and Sabina in Italian) is a sub-region of Latium, Italy, on the North-East of Rome toward Rieti.It is named after the Sabini (or Sabines), an ancient people that were in Latium before Rome was founded.The legend says that Romans abducted Sabine women to populate the newbuilt town.---RITA WAS ABOUT 40 MILESSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THETEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

23But if your eyes are bad, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the light within you is darkness, how great is that darkness!

24"No one can serve two masters. Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and Money.

Do Not Worry

25"Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or drink; or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more important than food, and the body more important than clothes?/////////////////////////////Luke 16:12-14 (New International Version) (NIV)

12And if you have not been trustworthy with someone else's property, who will give you property of your own?

13"No servant can serve two masters. Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and Money."

14The Pharisees, who loved money, heard all this and were sneering at Jesus.

Those volksturm and Hitler Youth units that were armed and sent to the front in 1945 killed a lot of allied soldiers. If only the allies had not invaded Germany, those geezers and children would've stayed put, working their civilian jobs, farming, milking the cows, bringing in the sheaves, singing songs, obeying momma, going to church, attending school, and babysitting the younger siblings in the sweet bucolic sunlight.

God, how shitty of us, to make them come fight. Why wouild we do such a thing? There MUST be some reason.

Blunt was a Blogger:"When your published you first work, it was at the very height of the Victorian period. The abstract poet was in a state of glory. One no longer wrote as a human being, with an address, living in a London street, having a definite income, and a definite tradition, but one wrote as an abstract personality."

Regardless of how effective a leader one may or may not be, nothing of any consequence will be done if the people refuse to be led.

GWB's by-far biggest problem is that so many of the citizens of the country that elected him, refuse to perform the basic civic duty of keeping a mental balance sheet on the turning points of policy, and noting the realm of possible outcomes against the actual, and thereby creating a trailing average with which to judge the administration.

Nothing anywhere, tangible or abstract or in-between, can be judged without a reference, a background, a context.

The left knows this, and from Code Pink to Ted Kennedy pulls out the stops without surcease to create a context of division and chaos. To gray-out the performance of policy initiatives. To make the country seem--or in fact to be--save for the old-school patriots--Cindy Sheehan's "country not worth fighting for" (I know, she said 'dying for', but it's the same thing).

That this tactic denies GWB any credit at all for governing from the center, at the same time that governing so has begun to mutiny the classic conservatives (such as Cato), is a head-scratching irony for sure. Makes me think of that "prophet without honor in his own country".

By what criterion can you make that "flypaper" judgement, Trish, that can possibly evade the pudding-proof all-encompassing fact of no-more-911s (yes i know, "so far"--but what else can be discussed except what has happened so far) ?

Great N.O. LINK first posted by Trish.Johnny White's bar in the French Quarter never closed in the past 16 years. To be clear it has been open 24/7 the entire time rain or shine. A few days after Katrina hit I drove by and took a couple pictures of the bar. Last night four of us from directNIC (Sigmund, Brandy, Jonathan and Daniel) were at the bar, only in the interest of performing research on the relief effort and to stimulate the local economy. Pictures, including, Johnny White's .

Johnny White's remained open (running on a small generator) despite the fact that it is located in a section of the French Quarter that lost power due to Katrina and still does not have power, despite the fact that it had to hire new employees to man the bar and despite the fact that the city is under mandatory evacuation. Although there are other bars now open in the French Quarter it was the only one to remain open the entire time.

One final warning, the bathroom is on the second floor accessible only by stairs and has no lights so you have to use a flashlight and reportedly the bathroom has not been cleaned in 26 days.

At Johnny White's :- Beer $3- Shots $5- Taking a leak on the street instead of a bathroom that has not been cleaned in 26 days: priceless!

You might be asking yourself. Who would go to a bar in an evacuated city after massive destruction caused by Katrina with impending doom from Hurricane Rita as a realistic possibility? So I will describe the crowd to you.

The crowd ranged from 16 people at one point to only four people remaining by 1:45 am. At no point did the crowd consist of more than 3 women. From my perspective, the crowd did not look any different than any other time in the French Quarter except for the absence of tourists and over abundance of men.Of course the regulars there referred to Brandy and I as tourists so from their perspective the crowd seemed just like the crowd from any other night.The bar tender last night took his first job as a bar tender one week ago when he found out that Johnny White's bar needed help to cover shifts.

Another patron of the bar was resident originally from Greece who came to New Orleans at age 6. He stayed in New Orleans for the past 26 days. He survived Katrina while drinking beer at Johnny White's. Two days after Hurricane Katrina hit he was nearly beaten to death with a 2 by 4 by thugs on Canal Street and he has the fresh scars to prove it. After having his head stitched up at the hospital he refused to evacuate. He even insisted on walking us to our car to make sure that we were safe at 1:45 am when we were leaving.

"yes i know, "so far"--but what else can be discussed except what has happened so far"---A Jar So Far:Who needs flypaper?Them Jihadis cannot resist the smell of rotting burned flesh, and so wherever they go their noses are attracted.

What Plan? This has been a work-in-progress from the get-go, undertaken on the grounds that as-is was intolerable, had become no longer tolerable. When something is intolerable, that means you can't tolerate it. So you bust it up, knowing that the worst that can happen is that the result will be likewise intolerable--but maybe won't, but maybe will come up tolerable.

And, of course, this is still in play, a change-the-intolerable work-in-progress.

Perhaps you expect too much, Trish.

Myself, nothing that's happened has surprised me in the least. Except for the degree of shameless exploitation of casualties by the antiwar crowd, which knows more about the nature of the stakes than anyone in the government or the military or who has ever read a book or sumthin.

To the actual casualties, opinion--as reflected in the press--runs high that they themselves are the authority on whether or not their sacrifice was justified. This fact, like the no-additional-911 fact, should be difficult to get around, in honest (rather than position-taking) argument.

Deja Vu All Over Again:"St. Bernard officials blasts Corps' repair job.St. Bernard Parish President Henry "Junior'' Rodriguez wasn't surprised that the surge from Hurricane Rita poured through an area of the Industrial Canal levee that the Corps of Engineers had tried to repair after Hurricane Katrina.

Breaches in the levee were largely responsible for massive flooding in the 9th Ward and St. Bernard Parish last month during Katrina.

And as Rita's waters began filling the 9th Ward and threatened St. Bernard Parish with another round of flooding Friday, Rodriguez let the corps have it.

Rodriguez said the repair job on the Industrial Canal levee was shoddy and accused the corps of exerting more of an effort to repair a breach on the 17th Street Canal at the Orleans-Jefferson parish line because it protects more wealthy neighborhoods than those in the 9th Ward and St. Bernard Parish.

"It's rich and poor,'' Rodriguez told a WWL-TV reporter, adding that St. Bernard Parish and 9th Ward residents are treated like "second-class citizens.''

"Rita's having a hell of an impact,'' Rodriguez said. "But I can't really blame Rita.''"

Love is Lovelier,The Second Time Around."Blanco requests federal disaster declaration.Gov. Kathleen Blanco has asked President Bush todeclare "an expedited major disaster" for coastalparishes being slammed by Hurricane Rita.

In a letter sent to the House on Thursday, Blancowrote that she had already declared a state ofemergency and expected because of the intensity of thehurricane that the state would not be able to copewith the recovery. If the president complies with her request, theaffected parishes would become eligible for the wide-range of federal money and and programs that are beingused for the recovery efforts after Hurricane Katrina."

Just got off the phone with baby sis in Lafayette, Louisiana. A big oak tree just snapped about 6' off the ground and fell in her pool. Wind is high intensity, and keeps ratcheting up. She adjoins a coulee that is trying to run into a bayou that is pushed about 10' higher than normal. I told her if it comes in the house, give me a call. I'm only 500 miles away, I guess i can sing her a song or tap-dance or somethin. B-in-L sez he's got the doors sandbagged but he "might as well be wearing those sandbags on his head" because he's "never seen wind like this before, that never lets up at all". He thinks it's 70 or so and gaining.

"The low-lying but well-populated cities just west of the Texas-Louisiana line were at greatest risk. Port Arthur, population 58,000, is an oil and shrimping town next to Gulf-fed Sabine Lake."---The Vietnamese Shrimpers got clobbered by Katrina.

Beaumont, population 114,000 and just to the north, is where the modern oil industry was born in the 100-foot gush of the Spindletop well in 1901 — an event that gave rise to giants like Gulf, Humble and Texaco.

"That's where people are going to die," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. "All these areas are just going to get absolutely clobbered by the storm surge."

Oh,MyGaaawd!"Nearly 1,300 patients were airlifted out of an airport near Beaumont in a rush Thursday night and Friday morning, but only after the county's top official made a panicked call to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson for help.

"We had patients throwing up. It was very ugly," said Jefferson County Judge Carl Griffith. He blamed the delay on the Transportation Safety Administration, which insisted every wheelchair-bound passenger be checked by metal-detector."