Asia

Wobbles in the US-Japan alliance

THE electoral defeat of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in late August was as well-flagged a political bouleversement as they come. Meanwhile, one of the best signalled intentions of the winning Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was for the country to enjoy a more "equal" relationship with the United States. For years, many Americans have argued for much the same. In effect, more equal means that Japan should shoulder more global responsibilities.

Why, then, is the administration of President Barack Obama in such a tizzy? A few days ago a senior State Department official told the Washington Postthat Japan is no longer a constant in America's relations in Asia. "The hardest thing right now is not China," he said. "It's Japan."

The underlying notion that the US-Japan alliance was in trouble struck me as very doubtful. The same official's statement that the United States had "grown comfortable" thinking of Japan as a constant in American relations seemed to give the game away. For long, a small number of Japan hands (Republicans and Democrats were interchangeable) presumed to dictate the relationship in league with an equally small elite in Tokyo.

Now I'm not so confident about things. What irks the administration is the suggestion by Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama that Japan might renege on a military agreement that arranges for a helicopter base for American marines to be relocated from crowded Futenma in southern Okinawa to a shallow sea site just off Okinawa's eastern coast, near the existing Camp Schwab. As part of the package, 8,000 marines are to be relocated to Guam. This is all part a sweeping "military realignment" on the part of America.

The agreement was 13 years in the making. But, as Katsuya Okada, the foreign minister, pointed out to my Tokyo colleague and me the other day, all the politicians opposed to the Camp Schwab site won their seats in the general election. "So there is a discrepancy," he explained, "between the thinking of the former [LDP] government and public sentiment."

Public sentiment on Okinawa, with Japan's densest concentration of American forces, is not entirely of one voice about the options. Most of the aforementioned politicians want the marine base off the island altogether, which Mr Okada rules out. In "reviewing" the options, Mr Okada suggests the huge air force base for F-15s at Kadena might work for the helicopters too. Local residents are up in arms. The Camp Schwab proposal has the merit that successive mayors of Nago city, in whose district the proposal falls, back the move. It would, after all, bring in oodles of cash.

Making tough decisions is what prime ministers are for. Given time (and the Diet opened only last week), Mr Hatoyama would presumably have come round to endorsing the original proposal, perhaps with minor shadings: moving the new base a bit further offshore, for instance.

But the Americans, led by the Secretary of Defence, Robert Gates, in Tokyo late last month, have not helped him. They have been dogmatic in their opposition to even a smidgeon of change. Now, in a troubling sign, the DPJ appears ready to endorse a Nago candidate for mayor who opposes the new site. Mr Okada had been preparing to dash to Washington, DC this week to confer with his counterpart, Hillary Clinton. But now, it seems, the Diet schedule precludes that.

So the chances of the matter being settled by the time Mr Obama makes his first official trip to Japan on November 12th look slimmer by the day. A chief idea of an "equal" relationship was to end the crowding out of more international issues by bilateral security ones. Instead, these bilateral issues have only crowded in.

Readers' comments

Don't be fooled by appearances: the real objective of the DPJ government is eventual abolition of the "Omoiyari-yosan", the unfounded payment of billions of yens to cover various expenses of the US occupation forces, oops, I mean the US forces in Japan, not covered by the terms of the security treaty but which the US takes for granted anyway.

@Richard D. Quodomine
I am not thinking of untangling the alliance, at it still brings huge benefits to both parties if they are properly carried out.
We have seen two recent examples of US taking backward steps from the alliance;
1. US attempt to bypass 6-party talks and negotiate with North Korea one-on-one, was only stopped when the then foreign minister Aso suggested that Japan may have to go nuclear if the alliance will not protect Japan from nuclear threats of the North.
2. Citing fears of national security, the US has refused to allow export of F-22A Raptors to Japan, despite repeated requests and potential economic benefits to the US manufacturers. Telling us to wait for F-35 that is not yet even on the drawing board is not really helping the alliance either.

Unlike most of my compatriots, I recognize the unique strategic importance of the location of Okinawa, being almost equidistant to the two most likely hotspots of East Asia, Korean Peninsula and Taiwan, and the way this allows US to have one force in Okinawa to react to either or both threats. However, continued use of such prize real estate requires that the US makes good use of the real estate for the alliance, and not just for itself.

I would counter by proffering that N. Korea has asked for direct talks, and it is the stated position if the Department of State to stick with 6 party talks. Whatever private dealings may be occurring, I cannot speak to. Position of the US State Department here: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/ci/kn/ -

Specifically: "Our agreement on the way forward is really based in three areas: one is a return to the core principle, the essential element of discussing denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula; second, that this should be achieved through a multilateral framework, the Six-Party framework; and number three, implementation of the resolutions 1874 and 1718, which have been agreed as part of our cooperative efforts to achieve denuclearization and a return to the multi-party framework."

THe bottom line: THe F-22 cost alot more than it could get for Air-to-Air Superiority. Especially right now, when the focus is Air-to-Ground Strikes, the F-22A seemed superfluous. Much of the defense focus has shifted away from air-to-air superiority against a Soviet-type enemy, and towards terrorists that are more likely to have anti-aircraft weaponry, and therefore, close-air ground support is called for. I think Japan would rather have the much more capable F-35, with it's multiple capacities, as it is being tested now. In fact, it's being tested specifically in the Pacific THeater. Please read here: http://www.pacom.mil/web/site_pages/media/news%20200906/20090626-Northen...

I hope our two nations continue to serve as strategic and economic partners for a long time. Japan has been a true success story over the past 60 years.

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don't see why a thaw in Japo-Chinese relations should not lead to China coming under the influence of Japan and vice versa,
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The days of oh-a-special Japo~U.S relationship are now numbered.
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perhaps there will be a big announcement when the presidents of the United States of China meet mid November. It is no co-incidence that separately and individually there is also a U.S-China trade and a Military summit beforehand....and 3 other remarkable get-togethers (at the highest levels) between now and mid November (one on US-Europe relations, a G20 meeting and one on India's role in the world.

is it all coming together now, with a formal culmination with China and America being crowned global equals.
hope so.

It would be a terrible mistake on the part of the President of the US, who came to power in a democratic shift, yet fail to understand that a democratic shift in another ally may change its priorities as well. Japanese pragmatists, whatever their political stripe, aren't going to kill a goose that lays a very golden egg. It is important for Secretaries of State and Defense to not take Japan for granted, and instead, work to understand Japan's new government, and more importantly, the new relationship with America that government will bring.

It would be a true shame if a President who was elected on the belief that his guidance would lead to rapproachment with America's enemies, would not see that same policy through with America's friends.

Well, President Obama has decided to delay his arrival to Japan by one day, so that he could attend the Memorial service at Fort Hood. I'm sure some Americans would feel slighted by the fact that our Prime Minister Hatoyama will set off to Singapore for the APEC summit BEFORE President Obama, but that's what he has to endure for missing the 20th anniversary of the coronation of Emperor Akihito (Yup, that's on 12 November, which also happens to be my birthday).

Defense Secretary Gates missed an important fact when he visited Japan last month, that there had been a "Regime Change" here in Japan. I hope his President won't make the same mistake, being responsible for his own "Change" back home.

The US has also spent many billions there in defense, and allowed the Japanese economy to grow by exporting many billions worth of goods, sometimes at cut-rate pricing, as an exchange for the right to be there. It was a dance card filled out by convenience and the Cold War, and even if the Dance no longer makes as much sense, there's stil billions passing both ways. And when you have billions, armies, and politicians, not to mention years of interpersonal diplomacy, the untangling is a lot more complex than one would think.

These agreements are a waste of money, were negotiated without any input from the Okinawans (other than them showing up at demonstrations screaming NO), are represent an EXPANSION of the US military's jackboot doofuses. I don't worry about Japan reneging as the US would just ignore such an act and then demand even more money from Japan. It's about as negotiable as a 'two-state' solution in Palestine or how US troops are going to 'leave' Iraq (while leaving 60,000 troops on some very large bases in Iraq which, by the way, looks like what the US did to Japan, Germany, UK, Italy, etc.).