ERCOT: Power demand slower than predicted

Power demand in Texas is not growing as quickly as previously forecasted, Texas state grid operators said in a report released Friday.

The results were largely anticipated following the release of preliminary findings, and the Public Utility Commission now appears to be backing off plans to overhaul the power market to address fears of thinning power supplies.

“Although population and the economy continue to grow in the ERCOT region, the relationship between economic growth and peak electric demand has changed in the past several years,” said ERCOT director of system planning Warren Lasher. “We believe recent improvements to our load forecasting methodology are providing a more realistic view of the future electric demand we need to be prepared to serve.”

In May ERCOT had projected the state’s power reserves – the amount of power they keep in excess to protect against blackouts – would fall below target by next year. Now ERCOT does not project reserves would drop to that level until 2017.

Still, with the Texas population growing by more than 1,000 people a day and steady economic growth, power demand is projected to grow 12.7 percent to more than 74,000 megawatts by 2023.

Currently the state’s power plant fleet exceeds 75,000 megawatts, but between mechanical issues and temporary shutdowns power plants are not always available. Under the current target, Texas would need to build more than 8,000 megawatts of generation capacity over the next decade.

ERCOT’s report drew further clamor from the state’s industrial and manufacturing sectors, which have opposed replacing the current power market with a capacity system they say will raise electricity prices and make Texas less attractive to business.

“The state’s reserve levels are more than adequate to reliably and economically serve customers’ needs into the foreseeable future,” said Tony Bennett, president of the Texas Association of Manufacturers. “Today’s capacity, demand and reserves report from ERCOT also reinforces that reserves in Texas are in good shape.”

Follow James Osborne on Twitter at @osborneja.

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