Monthly briefing from the Open Briefing intelligence unit on developments in remote-control warfare. This month: US president acknowledges cyber security challenges in State of the Union address; deteriorating security situation sparks surge in private security spending in Yemen; United States urges Europe to develop more advanced military technology; and more. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month’s spotlight on Asia and the Pacific includes details of efforts to tackle transnational organised crime gangs, which are to blame for the increase in environmental crime in Asia. Read more

It all seemed so convenient: remote-control warfare would minimise military casualties while rendering the civilian dead invisible. But in this article co-published with openDemocracy, Open Briefing’s executive director, Chris Abbott, explains how the battlefield has come home and remote-control warfare is failing. Read more

The recent crash-landing of a small drone in the White House grounds has highlighted the risk posed by terrorists operating unmanned aerial vehicles fitted with remotely-control explosive devices. Such platforms could be used to target nuclear power plants, government or military infrastructure, tourist sites and high-value targets, such as politicians. Read more

The international relations fallout from the hacking of Sony Pictures Entertainment in November 2014 steadily increased through December and into January. The potential for miscalculation in cyber conflict is significant due to the absence of international norms or consensus, lack of shared understanding of relative offensive capabilities and limitations in attribution. As such, the Sony Pictures hack has highlighted far-wider issues than initially apparent. Read more

In December 2014, the EU envoy to Pakistan, Lars-Gunnar Wigemark, urged the country to condemn Russia over what he characterised as ‘violations by a very aggressive Russia against Ukraine’. His intervention has been made at a time when there is a thaw in Pakistan-Russia relations after decades of animosity and mistrust. While the new friendship with Moscow is attractive for Islamabad, Wigemark’s warning puts Pakistan in a difficult position. Read more

Monthly briefing from the Open Briefing intelligence unit on developments in remote-control warfare. This month: attacks in France, Australia and Canada highlight domestic deployment of special operations forces for counter-terrorism operations; terrorist use of drones presents major potential threat to key sites and personnel in West; hack on Sony Pictures highlights key challenges in cyber security and conflict; and more. Read more

As part of our commitment to full transparency and accountability, we prepare evaluation reports every quarter to assess the progress we have achieved against our published objectives. We publish these reports in full, uncensored, on our website so our community can hold us to account. We have just published the evaluation report for October-December 2014, and it was a hugely successful three months for Open Briefing! Read more

Since December 2014, Azerbaijani authorities have ramped-up crackdowns on media outlets critical to the regime, as well as on the activities of NGOs and human rights lawyers. Given the increasing number of protests in response to recent government actions, draconian responses to these protests by the Azerbaijani government may result in a moderate outbreak of violence. Read more

The US Congress has stipulated that military aid provision to Egypt will be linked to President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s democratic reform. However, the bill also entails that in circumstances pertaining to national security, democratic focus may be abandoned in favour of domestic or regional stabilisation. Given the current security climate, it appears likely that international financial and political support will favour al-Sisi and the waiver of national security. Thus, it remains to be seen how effectual the US aid stipulation for democratic reform will be. Read more

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month’s spotlight on Africa includes details of the warship gifted to the Nigerian Navy by the United States to help combat transnational organised maritime crime in Nigerian waters, including piracy, oil theft and terrorism. Read more

Yemen faces many internal difficulties, and the latest offensives launched by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Houthi militia and southern separatist fighters threaten to destroy what remains of the already fragile unity of the Yemeni republic. The presence and strength of these rival parties, in a country that lacks both strong state apparatus and political cohesion, suggest that Yemen may be close to civil war. Read more

The Philippine military has continued its campaign against Islamist insurgency, particularly against the militant group Abu Sayyaf, where it has made considerable progress. The military had reduced the intensity of operations against other groups leading up to Christmas and ahead of Pope Francis’ visit to the Catholic-majority country on 15 January. Read more

With a general election due to be held in Nigeria on 14 February, Boko Haram has intensified its efforts to bring larger swathes of the country under its control. Given the relative inability of the Nigerian Army to suppress the growth of the organisation, it is highly likely that Boko Haram will succeed in seizing further territory in the northeast of the country, threatening the legitimacy of the general election. Read more

Monthly briefing on political and security developments around the world. This month: ongoing operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia reach pivotal phase; attacks in Paris risk further polarising French populace and increasing prejudices against Muslims; Yemen’s security situation continues to deteriorate following number of violent incidents and kidnappings; and more. Read more

On 7 January, two brothers, Said and Cherif Kouachi, with apparent ties to Yemen’s al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), attacked the offices of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. On 9 January, a third individual, Amedy Coulibaly, who had connections with the Kouachi brothers and Islamic State, entered a kosher supermarket in the Porte de Vincennes area of Paris, killing four individuals and taking a number of hostages. Read more

Open Briefing will be closed from Friday 19 December until Monday 12 January for a much-needed holiday! Wishing all our clients, subscribers and website visitors a happy holiday season and a peaceful new year. Read more

A roundup of the latest news and developments relating to unmanned aerial vehicles and armed drones. Includes the two-year feasibility study that has been launched by the British and French governments to initiate the development of a joint future unmanned combat air vehicle and news that the United States reportedly now monitors half of its border with Mexico using drones. Read more

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has overturned the ban on special forces night raids. There is acute awareness of Afghan public opposition to night raids and the danger that the policy reversal may expose Ghani to some future political attacks. However, the fact that Ghani and the White House are willing to stir up negative public sentiment during a politically fragile period may give some indication of the seriousness with which they are taking the threat posed by a resurgence in Taliban activity. Read more

President Obama delivers his State of the Union address at the US Capitol (Photo: White House/Pete Souza)

The theme for Barack Obama’s discussion of foreign policy in his 2012 State of the Union address was “No Apology.” After months of listening to his Republican rivals pummel his handling of world affairs, he made clear that he sees foreign policy as one of his strengths and he intends to make the most of it.

Obama both began and ended his speech by touting his foreign policy successes: After nine years of war, no Americans are fighting in Iraq. US troops have begun to come home from Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden no longer threatens the United States. Muammar Gaddafi no longer terrorises Libya. America’s friendships and alliances around the world are stronger than ever. In all, under his watch, “America is back.”

In an implicit recognition of Republican claims that he is more interested in apologising for America’s mistakes than advancing its interests, Obama dismissed talk of US decline, and embraced American exceptionalism.

Obama highlighted the sweeping changes that have rocked the Middle East and North Africa over the past year. He declared that the United States had a “huge stake” in the region’s transformation, said his administration would stand “against violence and intimidation,” and suggested that in Syria the Assad regime’s days were numbered. But the president offered no specific plans or initiatives to promote the forces of liberty and democracy in the region, and he stopped well short of pledging to unseat the government in Damascus.

Israel merited only a brief mention, but it was forceful and to the point. The United States and Israel are enjoying their closest military cooperation ever.

Obama singled out Iran when he vowed to act decisively against regimes that threatened America’s citizens, friends, and interests. He repeated his commitment “to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon” and insisted that all options were on the table. But he was also careful to offer Tehran an olive branch, saying that it was within Iran’s power to reach a peaceful resolution of the dispute.

Obama glossed over other potential threats to American security. He said nothing about China’s growing military might or the increasingly hostile rhetoric coming from Russia. He said nothing about North Korea. The challenges that remain in Afghanistan went unmentioned.

But this State of the Union address was never intended to be a policy speech. It was instead the opening salvo in his 2012 presidential campaign. And Obama’s message to his Republican opponents was that he has no intention of running away from his foreign policy record. He is instead going to run on it.