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AirAsia Plane Loss Could Cool Rebound in Chinese Tourism

Relatives in Beijing of passengers who were on board Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which went missing in March, stand near a TV showing a live broadcast of the search for AirAsia Flight 8501 from Surabaya to Singapore on Sunday, Dec. 28, 2014.
Associated Press

Travel agents specializing in tours from China to Indonesia said Tuesday that they see some tourists postponing their trips after the loss of AirAsia flight 8501, which had 162 people on board. One agent in the Chinese city of Wenzhou said her agency canceled its AirAsia flights for this month, while she and an agent in Beijing said customers had requested cancellation of travel to Bali, Indonesia, during the Lunar New Year holiday in February.

The scope of the impact wasn’t immediately clear. One agent surnamed Zhang in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou said flights to the region on carriers other than AirAsia were largely unaffected.

“There is a very high chance that we’re going to see travel numbers give way,” said Mark Clarkson, Asia-Pacific business development director for aviation information provider OAG. “But it’s likely to be a short-term dip.”

Windy Ng, a Hong Kong-based marketing manager and AirAsia flier, bought a one-way ticket on the airline for her mother to travel to Bangkok from Hong Kong in March. She said she doesn’t plan to cancel it unless investigators find serious operational problems. “But for sure, I’d book a return ticket at another carrier for my mom when she fixes the date for returning to Hong Kong, just to play it safe,” she said.

“I believe the AirAsia flight incident is a standalone case,” she said. “But following a series of unfortunate incidents with Malaysia-related carriers, I might think twice before making my booking for the next trip if I have other options.”

Chinese travelers have become increasingly important to the industry. The number of Chinese outbound tourists is expected to surpass 100 million in 2014, up from around 98 million outbound travelers the previous year, says Yang Jinsong, associate researcher at China Tourism Academy, a research arm of the China National Tourism Administration. Brokerage CLSA estimates that as incomes rise, outbound mainland tourist numbers will reach 200 million by 2020.

China’s booking to Malaysia jumped by more than one-fifth last year compared with 2012, according to OAG data, while Thailand bookings grew by more than 50%. Both started 2014 similarly strongly.

But bookings to the region were hit by the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, which had more than 150 Chinese people among its passengers. Political turmoil in Thailand that resulted in a May coup also had an impact. In July, bookings to both countries were down compared with a year earlier.

Bookings to both showed signs of shoring up by September. Still, growth paled in comparison with overall international passenger traffic out of China of close to 20% year to year.

Photos: AirAsia Debris Found Near Borneo

Indonesian officials say debris from Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 has been found in waters near the island of Borneo.

Jakarta's Air Force base commander Rear Marshal Dwi Putranto, in center, and Indonesian Air Force crew show pieces of luggage and what is believed to be an emergency slide from Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 that were recovered during a search-and-rescue operation and brought to the military base in Pangkalan Bun in Borneo.

Bagus Indahono/European Pressphoto Agency

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In recent years, the countries of Southeast Asia have been favored by Chinese tourists, who value destinations like Thailand and Malaysia for their proximity, value for money, good weather and food. Indonesia is another popular destination. The country’s tourism authority said on its official website that more than one million Chinese are expected to visit the archipelago nation. By contrast, only 40,000 Chinese visited in 2002.

Mr. Clarkson said experienced air travelers tend not to be deterred by air travel accidents. In other markets, where air travel is still relatively new, people’s concerns over safety—justified or not—can lead them to change travel plans. Such behavior is a “natural reflection of a market shock,” he said.