Quick Pitching Thoughts 8/1

Roto-Wan is on vacation this week, so I’m going to give you some quick thoughts on tonight’s slate, hold ’em style.

Pair of Aces: I prefer Chris Sale over Max Scherzer since Sale is at home. Though it could just be the recency bias of Mad Max’s Arizona disaster. Sale has been a bit better at home (.220 vs .247 wOBA) this year though.

King High Flush: All of the next five pitchers on DK are worth consideration (Stroman, Carrasco, Archer, Lester, Nola), but if I’m going here I want to roster the guy with a good chance to hit double digit Ks. For me, that’s Carrasco against an overrated Boston team (89 wRC+ vs RHP).

Three of a Kind: Martinez, Fiers, Samardizja. These guys are unique in that they have great K upside, have posted big starts this year, and are totally unpredictable. I want one of them if I’m playing a GPP. Of the three, Mike “The Phoenix” Fiers is my favorite. He’s risen from the ashes that were his season to become a reliable hurler, posting a 21.2 DK points average in his last ten starts. The Rays have also been made into strikeout victims plenty of times this year.

The Joker: Jimmy Nelson often gets overlooked. Maybe because he’s an underwhelming SP1, but he’s been on this year. The Cardinals also strikeout more than they used to (21.7% vs RHP). I like his career high 11.3% SwStr% at $7.8K as a pay down for cash and tournaments.

Two/Seven Unsuited: The worst starting hand you can have. If you play it you’ll need to flop two pair. Unlikely, but not impossible. In the group of pitchers under 7K on DraftKings, someone will likely have a nice line. If I had to bet on one, it’d be Homer Bailey in the pitcher friendly confines of PNC Park.