BDD: Rookies of the Year

Looking at WAR, we can narrow our field of eight down to six. The Phillies’ J.A. Happ and the Rockies’ Dexter Fowler are the only candidates with a WAR total under 2. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates and Randy Wells of the Cubs are the only two with a WAR total above 3. The middle four — Tommy Hanson, Garrett Jones, Chris Coghlan, and Casey McGehee — are separated by fewer than three-tenths of a point of WAR, between 2.33 and 2.60 (accounting for base running).

AJH

Anderson is definitely the better choice for AL ROY, despite the lower K/9 and higher WHIP and ERA compared to his teammate. Besides Bill’s comment about pitching three times as many innings, Bailey’s BABIP is an insanely lucky .220, where Anderson’s is a more realistic .312. Put Bailey’s BABIP at Anderson’s level and you’re looking at a WHIP of more than 1 and a (hypothetically) higher ERA, which wouldn’t be good enough to put him in the ROY discussion as a reliever.

Right, luck factors should be used when looking ahead, not behind. I’m sure that just about every award candidate was more lucky than his peers in some way, shape, or form. Luck is a big part of the great game of baseball.