NCAA Tournament bracket picks: East Region

Best storyline

Can Villanova establish itself as the program of the decade? You might not realize it, but we are running out of time and we still haven’t figured out what to call this decade – the 10s, the Teens, what? We’ve got this year and next and then we’re moving on. And right now Villanova – yes, Villanova – is in competition with Duke and Kentucky to claim superiority for this 10-year period, with North Carolina still in the hunt. Duke already has two titles, in 2010 and 2015, and UK has reached the Final Four on four occasions along with winning the title in 2012.

It has been a decade of upheaval in college athletics, but it’s likely no single program benefited as much from the shape-shifting among conferences as Villanova, which began this decade fighting for air in the old Big East only to emerge as the heavyweight of what remained of the conference when it split in two. The Wildcats won the Big East regular season crown in its first four seasons, and the tournament three times, including this past weekend. If Nova can win the title this year, it could put its record against anyone’s.

All-region team

Jalen Brunson, Villanova, junior, point guard

Carsen Edwards, Purdue, sophomore, shooting guard

Collin Sexton, Alabama, freshman, point guard

Mikal Bridges, Villanova, junior, wing

Aaron Holiday, UCLA, junior point guard

Best first-round game

No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 12 Murray State. The Racers haven’t lost since Jan. 18, which seems worth noting when discussing the possibility of a program from the Ohio Valley Conference upsetting a Big 12 power. But what seems more pertinent is the fact they played a non-conference game against Auburn, which employs a pressing style of defense, and only fell by four points.

West Virginia’s press isn’t identical, obviously, and there is the matter of Murray Star Jonathan Stark having to contend with the defense of Jevon Carter, but it suggest the possibility this game could be a blast.

Seeded too high

No. 7 Arkansas. That Oklahoma win doesn’t seem as impressive as it once did, since there are high school teams out there claiming victories over the Sooners now. Otherwise the Hogs are getting a ton of credit for being in a league with a lot of other good light heavyweights and beating roughly half of them. They also lost three games to non-tournament teams – including being swept by LSU. Were the 8-9 games too overcrowded to put the Razorbacks where they belonged?

Seeded too low

No. 5 West Virginia. The Mountaineers had 10 wins against the field, including one of just two conquests of No. 1 overall seed Virginia. How many victories did East No. 4 Wichita State earn against the field? Two. Oh, wait, let’s check that again: College of Charleston and South Dakota State. So it’s four. Yes, WVU got a lot of cracks at such victories, but reaching the Big 12 final with a second victory in the past two weeks against East No. 3 Texas Tech underscores the Mountaineers did not get a fair deal.

Upset special

No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Arkansas. Yes, KenPom.com already called this using his secret-sauce formula, and no, we did not copy off him. Butler seems well set up to handle the Razorbacks’ inconsistent defense and punish the Hogs with a wide variety of weapons: Kelan Martin’s complete game, Kamar Baldwin’s stop-and-go dexterity, the deep shooting of Paul Jorgensen and Sean McDermott.

Best potential game

No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 1 Villanova in the region final. As often seems to be the case, the committee diverted most of the glamour away from the East and left the Wildcats to fend with their occasional tournament demons. They’ve been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the East four times since 2014; in the previous three they lost in the second round each time. The year they won the championship, they came out of the Midwest.

Is there a curse here, such that we might not get even close to seeing the Boilermakers’ Carsen Edwards and Wildcats’ Jalen Brunson on the same court? No, it’s not a curse. So maybe we will have a matchup between the two teams among the 16 in this region that clearly have been the best.

Best potential player matchup

Keenan Evans, Texas Tech, vs. Carsen Edwards, Purdue in Sweet 16. Evans and Edwards both were members of the Sporting News All-America third team. Edwards tore down the stretch with an explosive first step Big Ten defenders couldn’t handle and a step-back jumper that seems not to have range limitations. Evans was bothered by turf toe in the season’s final weeks, which led to him scoring just 12 points in one three-game stretch, but was back to himself by the end and put 23 points on TCU and 25 on Texas in consecutive victories.

Get to know ...

Florida point guard Chris Chiozza. Well, you may already know him from his heroic, running jumpshot to beat the buzzer and the Wisconsin Badgers in last year’s Sweet 16 game at Madison Square Garden. But everybody seems to have forgotten how terrific he is. Chiozza did make the All-SEC first team, but one wonders if that team were limited to five players – as it ought to be – whether he would have made the cut. Some of it is a function of his low-stat play; he averages only 11.2 points. But he plays a style that translates, metaphorically, to a punch in the gut. When he’s got his game going, he takes away your soul.

Don’t be surprised if ...

UCLA wants no part of St. Bonaventure in the First Four. The Bruins must travel all the way from LA to Dayton for the game. Let us recall the efforts over other Pac-12 teams that have had to make that trip: VCU 59, Southern California 46; South Florida 65, California 54; USC 75, Providence 71.

That’s not a stirring history, although the Trojans did what they could to rescue their league’s pride with their victory last season. In a lot of ways, the chance to beat this legendary program could, in itself, validate the Bonnies’ successful season.

Sleeper team

No. 9 Alabama. Guard Collin Sexton is showing he is one of the most difficult Division I players to defend.