Cold feet in the GOP Senate race

You would think Scott Brown not running would be a huge opportunity for somebody. But as you might have heard, Brown's decision was like pulling a fire alarm. Everyone fled the building. Who's left?

A person really can't blame Scott Brown for backing away from the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat.

He's no traitor to the Republican Party. The guy has been campaigning nonstop since the middle of 2009, for heaven's sake. If he had entered and won this race, he would have to run again almost immediately for a full six-year term next year.

Imagine, five straight years of running for office. And you think the average voter is sick of electioneering? “He was in perpetual campaign mode,” observed Dartmouth Republican Brock Cordeiro.

Still, you would think Brown leaving would be a huge opportunity for somebody. But as you might have heard, Brown's decision was like pulling a fire alarm. Everyone fled the building.

Who's left? There's former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez, who says he is thinking about it. State Rep. Dan Winslow of Norfolk said he is forming an exploratory committee.

With 21 days to collect 10,000 signatures, “I hope he makes it a very short exploration,” said Cordeiro.

There's a problem right there, because it's not inconceivable that no Republican will qualify for the ballot.

Meanwhile, John Howcroft, an Acushnet Democrat, sees something familiar here to the 1990 primaries, where Bill Weld was up against Rep. Steven Pierce in the GOP race, and it was John Silber versus Frank Bellotti for the Democrats.

What happened? Conservative unenrolled voters flocked to Silber, Weld beat the odds against Pierce, and Weld rolled over Silber in the final.

If the conservatives do that again this time, Howcroft said the more conservative Democrat (that would be Steven Lynch) might beat the liberal (Ed Markey) and set the Dems up for another loss.

The hole in that scenario, though, is that there is no Scott Brown (that we know of) waiting in the wings to collect a moderate conservative primary majority. Even among the won't-run prospects, only Weld has serious campaigning success in his part.

Brown, remember, is a very skillful politician despite his limitations and his mistakes in the Senate race last year. Any doubt about who wins if Brown chooses to challenge the likes of Gomez or Winslow next year, should either one win?

I contacted Bristol County Sheriff Thomas Hodgson about all of this. He empathized with Brown, saying: “You've got to collect the signatures and raise an awful lot of money. It's grueling.”

And he said the current intramural fighting over the state chairman's seat will be good for the party if it can choose a coherent message to rally around.

As for himself, Hodgson said: “I'm really not a legislative type. God bless those who want to do it.”Marion Democrat Margaret “MarDee” Xifaras had some free, friendly advice for the Republicans: “They've got to think out of the box.” If they don't, they may find themselves missing the next opportunity when it presents itself.

Like they're missing this one.

Steve Urbon's column appears in The Standard-Times and SouthCoastToday.com. He can be reached at surbon@s-t.com or 508-979-4448.