Archive for the ‘nander de sedas’ tag

Casey Mize has been the consensus 1-1 for 2018 for most of the season. Photo d1baseball.com

Mock Draft mania! Since the draft is Monday i’ll publish this now to talk about it and talk about who we’d like to see the Nats pick. I’ll keep adding mocks as they get published and update this post all the way til gametime.

First, here’s a preview of the names we’re talking about for the upper end of the first round. This is an evolving list, with names who were prominently mentioned last fall falling by the way-side and helium guys rising up. At publication, i’ve separated those who have fallen as indicated below.

Here’s the Mock draft collection. I’ve generally listed their top-5 and then who they project the Nats to take at #27 (if they project out that far). I got the first Mock draft link here just after the end of the 2017 season, when the BA guys did a mock once we knew the draft order. I’ll continue to add in mocks as they get published post-posting up until the draft.

MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 2018 Mock Draft dated 5/24/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal. Has Nats on Mason Denaburg, a prep RHP from Florida (with a Florida commit) who is someone i hadn’t heard of prior to seeing it in print here. He was projected higher until shut down with biceps tendinitis; this could be a classic Nats move of taking a top-10 talent later in the 1st thanks to a slight injury issue.

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v1.0 4/30/18: Mize, Bohm, Libratadore, Kelenic, Madrigal. Has the Nats on Mike Vasil, a HS RHP pitcher from a Boston, MA high school (with a commit to UVA/Virginia) with some possible arm issues so could be following their pattern of buying low in injured guys.

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v2.0 5/7/18: Mize, Madrigal, Bohm, Winn, Libratadore. Has Nats on de Sedas, which would fit the Nats’ predilection of taking “famous” names.

Seedlings to the Stars/Calltothepen.com (Benjamin Chase) Mock draft v6.2 6/4/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal. Same top 5 as last few iterations. Has Nats back on Wilcox.

ESPN/Keith LawMock draft v1.0 5/2/18: Mize, Singer, Bohm, Bart, Madrigal. Has the Nats taking a prep RHP named J.T. Ginn from Mississippi, or perhaps taking one of the more “famous” prep arms if they fall (Hankins, Turang).

ESPN/Keith LawMock draft v2.0 5/17/18: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Singer. Has the Nats on Rocker, or perhaps one of the other prep guys who are “famous” but who are falling this spring, looking for value.

SI.com (Jay Jaffe), now with Fangraphs, so probably not doing prospect work anymore.

CBSsports (Mike Axisa)

Todd Boss’ Mock draft top-5 prediction?

My top 5: Mize, Bart, Bohm, Singer, Madrigal. It seems like most all the pundits have arrived at this as a top 5 and it seems to make sense.

ACTUAL DRAFT Results (added after the draft): top 5 went Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India. First four no surprise … India at #5 a surprise. So was Kyler Murray at #9 to Oakland … that came out of nowhere.

Who are the Nats going to take at #27: Mason Denaburg

Its really, really difficult to project to the 27th pick; you just have no idea who will be there. Just consider the 2011 draft; the Nats sat at the #6 spot and figured they’d have zero shot at Anthony Rendon, who for most of his college career was considered a 1-1 guy. Suddenly Rendon has a slight injury, the first few teams pass on him … and he falls into the Nat’s lap.

Historically, Mike Rizzo drafts college guys. And historically, he drafts college arms up high. However, most of the mocks above have the Nats taking prep arms in the first.

The clear “word on the street” out of the Nats camp this year is prep arm. Why? I have no idea. How many high school arms have you ever seen Mike Rizzo draft at the top of the draft? How about in the top 10 rounds altogether? I’ll give you the answer to the latter question: Three: Rizzo has drafted exactly three prep arms in the top 10 rounds in the entirety of his Nats career, dating to 2009. Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole. That’s it. Cole was under the prior bonus rules, when they threw 1st round money at him in the 4th. Giolito was a case where he dropped precipitously thanks to an arm injury and the Nats snagged him mid 1st (which kind of fits the Denaburg projection this year) … and Luzardo was a 3rd rounder with 1st round talent but a TJ surgery on his resume who they got great value on. So why would anyone think Rizzo is going to pick a prep arm unless its a Giolito situation where a top-5 projected guy suddenly falls?

Normally, i’d firmly in the camp that the Nats will follow their typical pattern here for later 1st round picks: college arm. I like the mocks that project guys like Beck or Hjelle, or any one of several solid college arms who might drop down because of a crummy regional performance. Ole Miss’ Ryan Rolison fits the bill here as a guy who might be available at 27, as does Jackson Kowar.

What about one of the famous “bats” in this draft? Namely, Seth Beer or Luken Baker or Griffen Conine? All seem like no-position/defensive liability sluggers, which may end up being tweeners between Late 1st round and mid 2nd round … so they’d be reaches for the Nats in the 1st but gone by our 2nd round pick.

Actual Nats #27 Pick (added after the draft): Mason Denaburg. For the second year in a row, the Nats tip their hand and have their first round pick predicted by every major pundit.