A country
which fails to grow enough wheat to feed its people cannot truly call itself
agricultural

By Syed M. AslamJan 17 - 23, 2000

Who could forget the flour riots which caused public unrest
bordering on lawlessness, sporadic looting and deaths caused by police firings in many
parts of the country in April 1997. The images of those frantic weeks are still etched in
the memories of many Pakistanis.

The 1997 food riots sent a clear message the shortage of wheat,
the primary staple food of Pakistanis, will not be tolerated. It also posed a vital
question; Can a country which fails to grow enough wheat to feed its people truly call
itself agricultural?

The increased dependence on wheat imports is evident from the sharp
rice in the volume of imports at the huge cost to economy. The previous decade has seen a
sharp increase both in the volume and value of wheat imports. Years after years promises
of achieving wheat autarky by successive governments have remain unfilled. In fact the
dependence has only increased. See Table 4.

Once again this year the government plans to import half a million
tonne of wheat. The federal minister for Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Dr Shafquat Ali
Jamote has recently said that the government has slashed wheat imports from 1.1 million
tonnes to half a million tonne. He said the decision was taken as the country has enough
stocks to meet the wheat demand in Pakistan. He, however, did not mention the quantity of
wheat stocks in the country. Pakistan needs some 55,000 tonnes of wheat every day to meet
the local demand. As of May last year, the country has a stock of 130,000 tonnes of wheat.

With the wheat sowing season at least two months away harvesting
in Sindh province starts in March and by middle of April in Punjab  the minister
said that the half a million tonnes of wheat consignment would reach Pakistan by end next
month. It usually takes another month for the wheat flour to reach the market as unmilled
wheat has to be procured and released by the government and to the flour mills as per the
allowed quota.

As is true with all other agricultural crops, the vagaries of the
weather play a vital role to achieve a targetted production. What has caused a sense of
relief, as well as revived the hope, among the farmers and the government is the rainfalls
throughout the country days prior to January 15. The rains broke the persisting dry spell
which threatened to cause massive damage to the wheat crop to lessen the prospects of
achieving the 20 million tonnes wheat target this season.

The dry season was feared to deprive the country one million tonnes of
wheat production which could have translated at Rs 7.5 billion tonnes at the
government-fixed support price of Rs 300 per 40 kilogram or Rs 7.5 per kilogram. The
government has recently increased the support price by 25 per cent to Rs 300 per 40
kilogram to encourage the farmers to produce more wheat by increasing the acreage by 15
per cent.

Can the increase in the support price be a big incentive alone to help
achieve the desired results? Many agriculturists disagree. According to an analysis
available with PAGE the costs of inputs to cultivate an acre of wheat comes to Rs
10,000. This includes labour charges, costs of seeds, fertilizers, water charges at all
stages including seedbeed preparation, sowing, cost of fertilizers, harvesting, threshing
and transportation. The expected return per acre, however, is much low less than Rs
6,600 [The PAGE analysis is based on the per hectare yield of 2,167 kilograms in 1998-99
which translates into 877 kilograms per acre multiplied by support price of Rs 300 per 40
kilogram or Rs 7.50 per kilogram].

This poses a serious challenge for the government to encourage the
farmers to cultivate more wheat by increasing the support price on the one hand and the
resulting increase in the price of wheat flour at the expense of people on the other. This
is particularly obvious from the 1997 flour riots and the ensuing unrest about the sharp
price increases for months afterwards. The political fallout could be enormous.

The only options

There are only two ways to increase wheat production increased
acreage and/or increased per hectare yield. Though wheat acreage, production and per
hectare yield have increased from 1990-91 to 1998-99 it has grown at a much smaller rate
compared to the population. While the wheat acreage, production and per hectare yield has
risen during the previous decade they were unable to match the substantial increase in
Population (See Table 1 and 2).

In 1991 the population of Pakistan was 111 million people which
increased to 131.51 million in 1998 as per the census carried out the same year. The
population is expected to increase by 2.5 per cent in the years to come.

It is surprising that the increasing area of Current Fallow and
Cultivable Waste has failed to draw the needed attention. Before proceeding further it is
necessary to explain what these terms mean. Current Fallow is the area which is vacant
during the year under reference but was sown at least during the previous year while
Cultivable Waste is the uncultivated farm area which is fit for cultivation but was not
cropped during the year reference nor in the previous year.

Though the total cropped area (including the area sown more than once)
has increased by 5 per cent from 21.82 million hectares in 1990-91 to 23.04 million
hectares in 1998-99 the Cultivable Waste and Current Fallow have also increased. The
former has increased from 8.85 million hectares to 9.14 million hectares while the later
has increased from 4.85 million hectares to 5.27 hectares. This has neutralised any
positive impact of the increase in the total cropped area. It is imperative to pay
attention to this particular problem which has failed to attract the attention of the
authorities despite its harmful impact.

What also necessitates a massive increase in the wheat production is
the fact that the per capita acreage of all the major food grains have dropped
significantly since 1972 primarily due to a high population growth rate. The areas under
such important crop as bajra, barley and jowar has decreased. During 1990-91 and 1998-99
bajra acreage has declined from 491,000 hectares to 463,000 hectares; barley from 157,000
hectares to 154,000 hectares; and jowar from 417,000 hectares to 396, hectares. The fact
that areas under crop of these grains keeps fluctuating poses many uncertainties to the
overall food grain production in the country in any given year. The uncertainty causes
many anxieties to calculate exactly how much wheat would be required during the given year
to meet the local demand.

This is all the more worrying in an international market where the
politics of scarcity has long replaced the concern for necessity. The concerns about
future wars over food and water does seem to make sense. The huge fluctuations in the
international prices is a major concern for many wheat importing countries like Pakistan
which has to spend a massive foreign exchange to help meet its demand. How the fluctuating
international prices can put a dent in a developing economy like Pakistan is obvious from
the unit value per tonne price the country has paid on wheat imports during 1990-91 to
1997-98. See Table 3.

International market

If trends are any indication it is clear that without achieving
self-sufficiency in wheat, Pakistan, like all other wheat deficient countries, would keep
on paying a heavy price to feed its populace. With increasing demand of food grains,
particularly wheat, as the world population crosses the six billion mark a handful of
exporters would be in a position to dictate the prices. This indeed would be dangerous for
a developing country like Pakistan.

The scenario can be demonstrated by the following factual example. In
1997 the world total food grains production touched a record high of 1,881 million tonnes,
21 tonnes more than the 1996 production.

The politics of scarcity is also evident from the banning of
wheat exports by the US to Pakistan in spite of a good crop in the US this year. The
decision of the US government drew a strong protest from the farmers which were keen to
ship the wheat surplus. The US move, however, has turned out to be a blessing in disguise
for Pakistan who was able to procure the commodity from Australia, another major global
exporter of the commodity. This is an apt example of the politics of scarcity by the wheat
exporters and also shows how vital it would be for Pakistan to gain food autarky.

Unknown to many China, today, has become the leading producer of wheat
in the world. In 1997, it produced a record 124 million tonnes or about one-fifth of the
total global production. India, on the other hand, has moved to the number two slot to
surpass 69 million tonnes of the US wheat harvest in 1997.

Population growth

Despite a slowdown in the global rate of population growth the
annual rate has slowly dropped from its historic high of 2.2 per cent in 1963 to 1.4 per
cent in 1997 the global population crossed the six billion mark recently. The
reduction in the global population growth rate, however, masks regional inconsistencies as
developing countries today are growing at a much faster rate than that in the
industrialised West 1.7 per cent compared to 0.3 per cent. The growth rate is even
higher in sub-Saharan Africa 2.7 per cent.

According to the 1998 census the population of Pakistan was 130.6
million depicting an increase of 55 per cent over the last census held in 1981. This
indicates an average growth rate of 2.6 per cent which is lower than the 3.1 per cent
during 1972-81. The growth is expected to increase by a rate of 2.4 per cent till 2003 and
2 per cent after that. In short Pakistan still has to face pressure from a huge population
growth rate in the years to come.

On the other hand, the world has to feed an extra 80 million babies in
2000 which will require 26 million tonnes of additional food grain. The implications of
increasing food demand in the years to come is a cause for concern.

The situation for Pakistan is even more alarming as many feel that the
1998 census does not reflect the true population of the country which they say has already
exceeded the 140 million mark.

Viewed against the global statistics the situation seems to get even
worse. Trends show that there has been a six per cent drop in per capita grain production
which declined to record 342 kilogram in 1984 to 322 kilogram in 1996. For a wheat
dependent country like Pakistan it means paying more and more dollars to meet the local
demand.

The increasing global population and the weather uncertainty play two
major factors to determine the price of wheat in any given year. How it could affect the
global wheat stocks at the inconvenience to importing country like Pakistan is obvious
from the fact that the global carryover food grains stocks, the leftover amount when a new
harvest arrives, in 1998 was only enough to last for 57 days, 13 less than the globally
accepted 70 days needed for even a minimal level of food security.

The increasing demand for food grains, particularly wheat whose global
production has fluctuated wildlyduring 1991 to 1998 and any similar recurrence
would mean that wheat importing country would have to pay a premium price for the
commodity not only this year but also in future. The worst hit will be the 1.3 billion
people of the world which live on less than dollar a day. Its impact will also be felt by
the people in Pakistan whose per capita income is only slightly higher.

Unknown to many, China has emerged as the worlds leading wheat
producer. China produced a record 124 million tonnes of wheat or about 20 per cent of the
total world production of 609 million tonnes in 1997. China was poised to double the US
wheat harvest of 69 million tonnes as India moved into the number two slot. The 1997
bumper crop was primarily attributed to record or near-record harvests in China, India, Us
and the European Union.

Conclusion

A major breakthrough in the agriculture sector is required to avert the
catastrophic situation in the near future. In spite of a high fertilizer usage which
equals that of many developed countries, Pakistan ranks 12th and 9th on the list of the
key wheat and rice producing countries respectively as far as the per hectare yield is
concerned.

It not only trails much low behind UK, the top per hectare wheat
producer of the world at 7.7 tonne but also India. Per hectare wheat production in
Pakistan is 2.1 tonnes compared to 2.5 tonnes in India.

To break the stagnation in the agriculture sector the huge water losses
in the irrigation system should be checked, the infrastructure in the rural areas be
developed to improve farm to market delivery and proper education and training to acquaint
the farmers in modern agriculture practices are required. Without these changes would keep
on using the maximum of fertilizers, which has already reached at par with many of the
developed countries, without increasing the productivity.

Wheat: Population Vs
Cultivated Area

Year

Population (Million)

Area Under Wheat Crop

1972-73

65.321

5.971 Million Hectares

1981

84.254

7.223 Million Hectares

1998

130.578

8.332 Million Hectares

1 Hectare= 2.47 acre

Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan

Wheat: Vital Statistics

Year

Cultivated Area

Production

Per Hectare Yield

Support Price

1990-91

7.911

14.565

1,841 kg

Rs 112

1991-92

7.878

15.684

1,990 kg

Rs 124

1992-93

8.300

16.157

1,946 kg

Rs 130

1993-94

8.034

15.213

1,893 kg

Rs 160

1994-95

8.170

17.002

2,081 kg

Rs 160

1995-96

8.376

16.907

2,018 kg

Rs 173

1996-97

8.109

16.651

2,053 kg

Rs 240

1997-98

8.378

18.694

2,238 kg

Rs 240

1998-99

8.332

18.055

2,167 kg

Rs 240

%age Change

+5

+24

+17

+160

Area in Million Hectares, Production in Million Tonnes,
Per Acre Yield in Kilograms, Support Price in Rs per 40 Kilogram

[Recently the support price of wheat was increased to Rs 300 per 40
kilogram