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So Croatia-Mexico becomes effectively a winner take all game right? (assuming Croatia beat Cameroon). The same assumption about Brazil-Cameroon keeps Brazil in the driver's seat. I'm going to assume that Brazil are going to win the group as they have a 1 goal edge in GD already on Mexico and Cameroon left to play.

A little story of how little respect Soccer used to get. When I was in high school, we had a city tournament. The organizers made our team play two games in one day. The team we played against in the finals had to play THREE games in one day to get there.

Can you imagine a gridiron team being forced to play three games in one day?

A legitimate question. Of course, we don't know if Spain will finish second in group B (they almost certainly have to beat Chile, and they are only slight favorites to win that game outright). Also, the winner of the Group A winner against the 2nd place in Group B will likely face Italy, rather than probably Columbia or England. That might be a wash.

I think it helps that the Brazuca is a good ball. I haven't heard a single complaint about the player's ability to control it and it certainly seems like it's doing everything that players want it to do.

Al-Smith: What I can confirm is that post-USA game presser was cancelled 6 hrs ago. No official reason given. Not normal. 100% sure all bonus arrangements in Ghana camp sorted. All other reasons local media giving for alleged player mutiny news to me. If alleged problem were that bad, Ghana FA would have issued statement, players would've spoken. That's why I'm brushing it off.

Thanks DA, I heard Cameroon almost didn't get on the plane due to issues regarding compensation. I read last night Prince-Boateng was not happy with the selection and implied neither were his team mates.

Odds have Spain as only about 45% chance to advance (and of course virtually no shot at being 1st). Chile has the other 55%. The minimal likelihoods that the Nederlanders fail to advance and the Aussies succeed in advancing basically cancel each other out.

I'd be happy to see Brazil do well, but I have to admit a part of me wants them to crash and burn just because of the snootiness of the 538 system.

It's weird, all of the dumb things that people said about his ability to predict the election are actually true about this one. It insists on a ridiculous level of precision based on a relatively weak data set, and doesn't seem to include the internal checks necessary to recalibrate its expectations.

It's weird, all of the dumb things that people said about his ability to predict the election are actually true about this one. It insists on a ridiculous level of precision based on a relatively weak data set, and doesn't seem to include the internal checks necessary to recalibrate its expectations.

I have to wonder if Silver has just said "screw it money" or if he actually believes the stuff he's parroting now. Most people have one genius moment/idea, he's no different.

Thanks DA, I heard Cameroon almost didn't get on the plane due to issues regarding compensation. I read last night Prince-Boateng was not happy with the selection and implied neither were his team mates.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised. Ghana was actually dangerous when he was in, their manager got the starting 11 wrong and was slow to react. Should have subbed sooner.

So this is probably BS but twitter rumor is that Jozy might play sunday. Honestly after looking at the retweats it appears that @alawradio (amy lawrence's radio show's twitter, she's awful) retweeted (giving it legs) a tweet of a guy who got Altidore confused with Besler because the quote is "NYTs reporter talking with Jozy says he was taken off as a precaution".

Uh, he was taken off on a stretcher after going down like he was shot.

They're resuming, somehow. If you've ever wanted to watch an MLS team play in the middle of a lake into 35mph wind, here's your chance.

The goalie just tried to throw a ball to his RB and it started blowing back to him before it reached the d-man. I'm pretty sure I just saw a pass end up 20 feet short of it's target and start floating.

For me, Mourinho's comment is unsurprising for one who grew up in a family that was very comfortable with the dictatorship and bemoaned its passing. He really is an unpleasant human being in many ways.

Good, succinct write-ups. I particularly agree with your points on Brazil shooting straight at Ochoa (there were at least two occasions when the player had time, but snapped at his shot) and the lunacy of defenders raising their arms while the ball is in play in the six yard box.

Youth soccer in SoCal plays lots of National Cup games in Lancaster, CA. The wind there is unbelievable. Two stories. One time our goalie punted the ball and it went back over her own goal for a corner kick. Another time one of the parents opened his car door and the wind blew the door off the car. Really.

It's an absolute joke to play under those conditions, especially for younger kids.

Those 95%+ odds of Brazil to win each game, as determined by SPI, look silly now. Having watched the 2 games I would guess in retrospect the odds of them winning both combined would be closer to 50% than 90%.

Those 95%+ odds of Brazil to win each game, as determined by SPI, look silly now. Having watched the 2 games I would guess in retrospect the odds of them winning both combined would be closer to 50% than 90%.

Hilarious. We were all complaining about these projections before the WC started.

it's hard to predict most things, harder than elections or even baseball really. that said, those odds didn't really pass the smell test, rather go with vegas until they find a better way to translate the regions.

So what's the scenario where Brazil doesn't get out of group play? Is there one? Or would FIFA basically pull out all the stops to ensure this doesn't happen?

It's pretty unlikely. They would have to lose to Cameroon, and 538 says they only have a 2% chance of losing to Cameroon. So if they played FIFTY games, Cameroon would only win one of them. Because, hey, that's believable.

But seriously, losing to Cameroon is not likely. And even if they lost, there's plenty of scenarios where they still go through.

One thing I thought left out of the "is Ghana super awesome or are we just ####\" discussion is that Ghana had very impressive overall quickness. (Which made Boye being stuck in cement on Dempsey's goal even more surprising.) And the US does not seem particularly gifted in that area.

I've never really been a sports bettor, but it's my understanding that you should be getting more than a 3% vig on your bets or you will shortly no longer be a sports bettor.

A traditional bookie takes the vig, not the bettor.
Depending on how you bet (for example, if you use peer to peer sites like BetFair), there need not be anywhere near a 3% gap between the odds as you believe them and the odds as they are posted as available. For example, on a peer-to-peer site I used to use, they only took a % of winnings (net of losses) over the day. Other sites might take a .5% from each side of each transaction.

At any rate, the discussion about odds was meant to be academic, I didn't actually expect you to make a bet. I just wanted to point out that there is mathematically a very large real world difference between a 2% chance of something happening versus a 5% chance. They are not roughly equivalent. Insurance companies for example make their living on much finer distinctions than that when they ensure against unlikely outcomes.

I've never really been a sports bettor, but it's my understanding that you should be getting more than a 3% vig on your bets or you will shortly no longer be a sports bettor.

As soon as you can find a posted odds (after all fees, so the Betfair ones need to be post-fee) that differs from the true odds you can make money, and then you have to use the Kelly criterion to determine the biggest bet you can make (basically how much of edge you have divided by the odds). Betting on rare events is very much an exercise in bankroll management, because it is easy to lose all you have betting on things where you have an edge.

When you get 50-1 on a event with probability 0.05, the Kelly criterion says that 3% of your bankroll is the optimal bet (optimal in the sense that it maximizes your expected winnings, not necessarily optimal for any sane humans risk profile).

Question from a Korea fan: Korea benefits from the remaining group schedule, right? As in, if they can beat Algeria and have Belgium beat Russia, then Belgium doesn't have much to play for in the last game and might put out a B team against Korea? If Korea had to play Belgium then Algeria, then Russia would benefit from the same (potential) dynamic, so I should consider myself lucky the draw worked out this way. Am I missing something?

Question from a Korea fan: Korea benefits from the remaining group schedule, right? As in, if they can beat Algeria and have Belgium beat Russia, then Belgium doesn't have much to play for in the last game and might put out a B team against Korea? If Korea had to play Belgium then Algeria, then Russia would benefit from the same (potential) dynamic, so I should consider myself lucky the draw worked out this way. Am I missing something?

Well, I guess that all makes sense except that if Korea beats Algeria then Belgium will want to win the group to avoid Germany in the KO round so I doubt they will field a B team. (Belgium doesn't really have a B team, anyway. I think a team that can go to Mirallas, Fellaini, Vermaelen, Mertens, Januzaj, etc. as second options kind of explodes the whole idea of a weakened side.)

For me, Mourinho's comment is unsurprising for one who grew up in a family that was very comfortable with the dictatorship and bemoaned its passing. He really is an unpleasant human being in many ways.

So, a royalist, an oligarch, a complete asshole and a probable fascist sympathizer. Legends! Soccer is a bit like Game of Thrones. The good guys are not going to win. In fact, there may not even be good guys.

I guess the Columbus-Indianapolis Open Cup game was bonkers last night. Columbus went 1-0 up in the fourth minute, had a guy sent off later in the first half, and allowed a second half goal to send it to extra time.

In the 110th minute, the Crew had a second player sent off and were down to 9 men. They won anyway...got the game winner on a 114th minute penalty.