A decade ago, Britain was in the early stages of what would turn out to be the deepest recession of recent times. It has never really recovered.

Only twice in the past 10 years has the economy broken out of its post-crisis torpor. The first time was in late 2009 and early 2010, when the country was jolted back into life by the monetary and fiscal stimulus provided by the Bank of England. That rally was killed off by George Osborne’s ill-timed austerity and by the protracted troubles of the eurozone.

In 2013, five years after the start of the financial crisis, there was again optimism that the economy was at last fully recovered, but this proved illusory. A period of strong growth lasted for two years, but it was a classic sugar-rush prompted by the government’s decision to, in effect, crank up the housing market.

Politically, policies such as funding for lending and help to buy did the trick. Demand for housing and consumer durables increased, and a feelgood factor was generated in time for the Conservatives to win the 2015 general election.

Thereafter, though, the pace of activity slackened. Even before the EU referendum in the summer of 2016, the economy was losing momentum, because even with record low interest rates, property was too expensive for potential first-time buyers.

The economy has performed far better since the Brexit vote than either the Treasury or the Bank of England imagined. Not only has there not been a recession, there has not even been a single quarter of negative growth. Unemployment has continued to fall and currently stands at a 42-year low.

But the past two years have also starkly illustrated the deep structural problems of the British economy: too many low-paid, low-productivity jobs; an over-reliance on housing bubbles to lift growth above the mediocre; the inability of a shrunken manufacturing base to take advantage of a more competitive pound and strong global demand; a long-established tendency to under-invest.

The latest official figures released by the ONS sum things up nicely. Growth of around 0.4% a quarter is the new normal. A colossal trade deficit in goods cannot quite be offset by Britain’s service-sector exports. Manufacturing, after two quarters of falling output, is technically in recession.

This pattern of mediocre growth will be broken in the next year. If Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal, there will be a recession as business investment dries up and a falling pound makes life a lot tougher for consumers by increasing the cost of imports.

The opposite will occur in the event of a deal between the UK and the EU. Sterling will rise on the currency markets, making imports cheaper. Some of the business investment that has been mothballed during the negotiations will be given the go-ahead. There will be a spurt in growth.

But the spurt will prove temporary because Britain will quickly revert to its default setting: investing and producing too little, borrowing and consuming too much.

There has been much talk over the past decade about the inadequacies of the economy. Osborne arrived at the Treasury promising that there would be less reliance on consumer and public debt, and later hailed the imminent “march of the makers”. Theresa May said the country needed a new industrial strategy to ensure that prosperity fanned out from London and the south-east to the old industrial towns that voted heavily for Brexit.

But it has all been empty rhetoric. Households are spending more than they are earning for the first time in 30 years. There has been no march of the makers. Nothing much has emerged from May’s much-vaunted industrial strategy since it was published at the end of last year.

Nothing, in other words, has really changed since the banks almost blew up the economy in the autumn of 2008. A golden opportunity has been wasted. Truly, this has been a lost decade.

Trump could march Turkey to the brink

Occupying an ancient crossroads between east and west, Turkey has long held a position of strategic importance for the world economy.

Over the past century, differing rates of economic development have left it eclipsed by rivals, yet it still ranks as one of the most significant emerging-market nations. In this respect, a widening economic crisis and plunging currency, made worse by intervention from Donald Trump last week, could spell trouble for other developing countries.

Turkey faces spiralling external debts and rampant inflation, while a spat over an imprisoned US pastor means the country faces economic sanctions, making life even more difficult for its strongman president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Having secured sweeping new powers at elections earlier this year, Erdoğan has shown he would rather make belligerent speeches calling on God (and urging Turks to sell the gold under their pillows) than tackle the problems facing the economy. The lira has plunged by almost half this year, fed by his intransigence.

In power for 15 years, Erdoğan has named his son-in-law finance minister and holds significant sway over the central bank. This puts Turkey in a bind as pressure comes from global investors for the country to raise interest rates to stem the fall in the lira. Higher borrowing costs would slow the economy, which would be unpalatable for Erdoğan.

There has been talk of capital controls or a bailout from the IMF as alternatives, but analysts also doubt the president would accept the terms that would come with support from the global lender of last resort.

International investors are waking up to the risks and rapidly heading for the exits, returning to safer-haven assets such as the US dollar and German bunds. Emerging markets across the board have seen their currencies fall as a consequence. Banks in Europe could be at risk from the fallout.

While hopes remain for a resolution, the risk of Turkish contagion for other emerging markets – and even the rest of the world – is rising.

Why first-years shouldn’t fear the student loan

The killjoys will be out in force on Thursday as thousands of young people celebrate their A-level results. As they make plans for university, they’ll be told they’ll be lumbered with vast debts and pay silly amounts of interest.

Yes, the average student debt will be big. Frighteningly big. Students starting university this year could easily owe more than £60,000 at the point they graduate. Even while they’re studying, interest on their debt will rack up at around 6% a year, adding up to £7,000.

But the reality is that few studentswill ever repay it. Calculations by Hargreaves Lansdown suggest that a graduate would have to be on a starting salary of £56,000 a year if they were going to pay off their entire loan.

If they were to land a job at a City bank or “magic circle” law firm, they could eventually pay as much as £170,000 back in loans plus interest. Hargreaves recommends such high-flyers pay that down as soon as possible. But the rest? The Institute of Fiscal Studies reckons 83% of graduates will never repay their student loan in full, with the slate wiped clean 30 years after graduation.

The founder of Moneysavingexpert, Martin Lewis, is particularly bothered by claims about horrifying debt burdening a younger generation. He says the fear is misplaced, as “those who don’t gain too much financially from going to university will repay little or nothing”.

Graduates only repay when they’re earning £2,083 a month (equivalent to £25,000 a year)) and then it’sthe amount is fixed at 9% of everything above that. Hargreaves estimates that a graduate who finds a job on £20,000 a year, then only gets minimal pay rises, will repay only £19,000 of the £60,000 borrowed by the time it is written off.

That might comfort someone embarking on a low-wage career in the arts or charity sector. But selling university as a great option because, you know, you probably won’t really earn that much afterwards is not the greatest enticement. And there will be a final reckoning: total student debt in the UK is already around £100bn, and is expected to climb to nearly half a trillion pounds by 2049. If most of it is never going to be repaid, then the chancellor will need more than an “A” in advanced maths to solve that problem.