Thursday, 16 April 2015

Xi’s Submarine Sale Raises Risk of Nuclear Clash in Indian Ocean

Soon a brash naval captain may pose a bigger risk of triggering a
nuclear crisis between India and Pakistan than a religious terrorist.
China is likely to conclude a sale of eight conventional submarines
during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Islamabad on April 20, more than
doubling Pakistan’s fleet. Analysts say it may be the first step in
helping Pakistan gain the ability to fire nuclear weapons at sea,
keeping pace with rival India.
The submarine sale will add to tensions in regional waters as Prime
Minister Narendra Modi bulks up India’s navy to prevent China from
gaining a foothold in the area. Xi’s visit, the first by a Chinese head
of state to Pakistan since 2006, will also outline investments in gas
pipelines, highways and rail links that will give China access to the
Arabian Sea, in part through territory claimed by India.
While Pakistan’s efforts are still “embryonic,” its naval commanders
want to follow Israel’s example of equipping conventional submarines
with nuclear-tipped missiles, Iskander Rehman of the Atlantic Council, a
Washington-based policy research group, said in a March 9 report.
Nuclear weapons at sea pose a greater risk than stationary land-based
arsenals because they are submerged and harder to detect.
“We are now entering a new era whereby naval interactions will occur
under a perpetual nuclear shadow,” Rehman said by phone. “My main
concern is less the risk of nuclear terrorism, but rather the dangers
tied to naval friction within a newly nuclearized maritime domain.”
India’s Submarines
Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear program in the world, according
to the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Its arsenal, built
with the help of Chinese technology, stands at between 100 and 120
warheads, compared with China’s 250 and India with between 90 and 100.
While India began sea trials for its first nuclear-powered ballistic
missile submarine in 2009, Rehman says the nation is still years from
deploying a nuclear weapon at sea. In February India increased its
defense budget by 11 percent to $40 billion and approved the building of
six nuclear-powered submarines.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government approved a
proposal to buy eight Chinese submarines, Rohael Asghar, chairman of a
parliamentary panel on defense, said earlier this month. It may be
signed during Xi’s visit, he said.
Tasnim Aslam, spokeswoman of Pakistan’s foreign ministry, said she had no more details on the submarine sale.
Closing the Gap
“Pakistan has been compelled to develop full spectrum nuclear weapons to
maintain its deterrence,” she told reporters on Thursday in Islamabad.
“We see very aggressive doctrines emanating from India, so we maintain
our credible deterrence.”
China’s defense ministry didn’t immediately respond to faxed
questions about the type of submarines to be sold and whether it’ll help
Pakistan achieve a sea-borne nuclear deterrent.
The initial objective of Pakistan’s new submarines will be to counter
India’s naval dominance in the Indian Ocean, according to Li Jie, a
senior researcher from the Chinese Naval Research Institute in Beijing.
The vessels will probably be China’s most advanced air-independent
propulsion S20 model armed with homing torpedoes and anti-ship missiles,
he said.
“The sale will accelerate the process of Pakistan building an
underwater warfare platform,” Li said. “It will significantly close the
gap in submarine capabilities between the two Indian Ocean rivals.”
‘Second-Strike Capability’
Pakistan’s navy at present operates five French diesel-electric
submarines: three purchased in the 1990s and two dating from the late
1970s. Aside from India’s lone operational nuclear-powered submarine, it
has 13 diesel-electric ones, among which about half are in service.
Pakistan signaled its intention to develop a maritime nuclear
deterrent when it established the Naval Strategic Force Command
Headquarters in 2012. The force would be the custodian of the “nation’s
second-strike capability,” according to a statement on a Pakistan
military website, referring to the strategy of responding to a nuclear
attack with atomic weapons.
Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai told a seminar in Washington D.C. last month
that Pakistan plans to expand its nuclear arsenal with weapons deployed
on ships or submarines within a “few years.” Kidwai is a former head of
the Pakistan military’s Strategic Plans Division, which directs the
nation’s nuclear weapons and missile programs.
Since conventionally powered diesel-electric submarines aren’t
equipped with vertical launching tubes most commonly used for firing
missiles, they would need to modified to fire horizontally from torpedo
tubes, according to David Brewster, a specialist in Indo-Pacific
security at the Australian National University in Canberra. China would
probably help Pakistan with this “although that would be kept under
wraps,” Brewster said.
China helped Pakistan in the 1980s to obtain nuclear weapons and the
ability to deliver them, and it may be motivated to help it obtain
sea-borne nuclear weapons as a balance to India, he said. “The more
resources and distraction that Pakistan can soak up, the better from
China’s perspective.”

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