EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

The Hwasong-15: The Anatomy of North Korea's New ICBMBy Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: “Designated the KN22 by the U.S. intelligence community, the Hwasong-15 is North Korea’s second-ever liquid-fueled intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) design to see flight testing. Prior to its November 29 launch, the missile had never been seen publicly. "

Understanding the North Korea ThreatBy Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): “Although it has not yet demonstrated a re-entry vehicle capable of surviving atmospheric friction, North Korea announced that it has mastered nuclear strike capability and become a full-fledged nuclear state. Like previous U.S. presidents, Donald Trump has said that this state of affairs is intolerable. So now what?

Finally, the role of China should not be underestimated in any potential military scenario in Korea. Washington may desire and even plan for a limited conflict, but any threat to the continued existence of North Korea is more likely than not to induce Beijing to get involved. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has no love lost for Kim Jong-un, China appears unwilling to let North Korea disappear as a buffer state between it and the democratic, liberal, largely Western-leaning South Korea. It is thus entirely possible that Beijing would order Chinese forces into North Korea to secure Pyongyang and set up a puppet regime. That could put U.S. and Chinese forces in close proximity, or put Chinese forces potentially at risk from U.S. airstrikes in North Korea, either of which scenario would force Washington policymakers to make a difficult choice about how or whether to continue military operations.

The highest priority of the North Korean regime is survival, and to that end, it has developed a set of interlocking defensive and offensive capabilities that would challenge allied conventional military strategies. In the end, the North Korean regime would be unlikely to survive a campaign waged with the full conventional strength of the United States and South Korea, but it would seek to impose such significant physical costs on South Korea, Japan, and U.S. territories, that Washington and Seoul would hesitate to wage preventive or preemptive war, and might even refrain from an overwhelming response to North Korean aggression. With the anticipated risks to South Korea, Japan, and U.S. interests of any type of preventive or preemptive war, North Korea has shaped the pre-hostilities environment in a way that removes confidence in any reasonable conventional military option to remove the threat it poses, short of a major theater war.
​https://www.hoover.org/research/war-games-korean-peninsula

East AsiaLast Wednesday, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which flew higher and longer than any previous missile test to date. Today, the US and South Korean militaries held exercises that included strikes on mock North Korean nuclear test sites. US officials said the drills were planned before North Korea’s ICBM test last week.

China’s grand strategy requires much of its military and security forces. President Xi Jinping’s “China dream” of “national rejuvenation” calls for the reunification of the lost Qing imperial territories of Taiwan and Hong Kong, the continued suppression of the imperial holdings of Tibet and Xinjiang, the coercion of countries abutting the seas around China’s coast to make good on expansive maritime claims, the preparation of contingencies on the Korean Peninsula, and preparation for a fight with the United States, should Washington’s strategic position in Asia become untenable for Beijing. Dan Blumenthal lays out how the United States should respond in an op-ed for The Hill.Read here.

China’s President Xi Jinping took major steps to solidify his place as the strongest leader of the People’s Republic of China in a generation at the 19th Party Congress in October. Oriana Skylar Mastro joined the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ weekly Asia podcast to discuss the implications of the Party Congress and Xi’s plan to lead the People’s Liberation Army through its largest reform ever to become a truly world-class fighting force by 2050.Listen here.

How should the United States respond to North Korea’s ballistic missile test last week? In an AEIdeas blog, Marc A. Thiessen argues that President Donald Trump should take out the test site from which the North Koreans launched the missile toward Japan — just like he struck a military base in Syria last April. Then, President Trump should declare North Korea a ballistic missile “no-fly zone” and a nuclear weapons “no-test zone.” So long as North Korea does not retaliate, Trump should assure Pyongyang that he will take no further military action against the regime.Continue here.
​Watch Thiessen discuss his recommendations on Fox News this past week.Watch it here.

Sinai massacre forebodes more violenceEgypt's Sinai Peninsula may be in store for more terrorism as the latest attack that left more than 300 people dead at al-Rawda Sufi mosque could be a sign of things to come from militant groups in the area.

U.S. Military Stretched Thin in 50 African NationsBy Les Neuhaus, Observer: “The Pentagon has between 5,000-6,000 servicemen and women stationed across 50 of 54 countries, according to civilian spokesperson for the American military’s Africa Command.”

To follow through on a major campaign promise, the Trump administration is considering recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and possibly moving the US embassy there from its current location in Tel Aviv. In an AEI “In 60 Seconds” video, Danielle Pletkaweighs in on the debate.Watch it here.​There’s been a rise of Islamist militants across Africa in recent years, but can anything be done to stop them? How severe is the threat they pose to the West? Emily Estelle gives her take in an AEI “In 60 Seconds” video and explains why it is a dangerous misconception to see African terror groups as too locally focused to threaten the West.Catch it here.

​Watch: Islamist militancy in AfricaEmily Estelle | AEI video There's been a rise of Islamist militancy across Africa in recent years, creating a growing threat to the US and Europe. There’s a dangerous misconception that African militant groups are too locally focused to pose a threat. The US should understand that addressing the challenge now is far cheaper than fighting another war later.

​How Maduro's Venezuela Playbook Borrows from Mugabe in ZimbabweAlmost since the day he came into power following Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela has confronted predictions of his imminent downfall. Despite his gross economic mismanagement, squandering of oil revenues, threats of a debt default [1] and rising poverty, he has...

​America’s $45 trillion lead over ChinaComplaints about US decline in the face of China’s rise under President Obama have been replaced by complaints from new people under President Trump. The debate over policy in the two administrations is important but shouldn’t obscure basic facts: In terms of total economic resources, China isn’t in America’s league and may not even be catching up.

Suicide attack kills 20 in Kurdish area reclaimed by Baghdad​At least 20 people were killed and more than 40 wounded in a suicide car bomb attack on a crowded market in northeastern Iraq on Tuesday. The attack struck Iraq’s multi-ethnic Tuz Khormato district, which was previously under control of Kurdish forces before Baghdad ousted the peshmerga from disputed areas last month following the Kurds’ controversial independence referendum in September. Read More

An American military airstrike on Tuesday killed more than 100 people who were identified by the Pentagon as being affiliated with the Islamic militant group Shabab, continuing a stepped-up pace against targets in Somalia, officials said. - New York Times​A suicide bomber set off explosives on Tuesday during morning prayers in a small, crowded mosque in northeastern Nigeria in a deadly attack that comes amid a raft of similar assaults on rural communities in the region. - New York Times

Egypt’s security forces were on high alert Saturday after striking back at militants whose massacre of more than 300 people at a Sinai mosque raised fears of a new and bloodier phase in the country’s struggle against Islamist insurgents. - Washington Post

Bedouin leaders in the Sinai Peninsula have issued a rare call for solidarity with the Egyptian army to fight against Islamic extremism in response to a Friday attack that killed more than 300 Muslims at a local mosque. - Wall Street Journal

After militants massacred 305 people at a packed mosque on Friday in a stunning assault on a sacred place, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi responded as he knows best. - New York Times​Since at least 2016, Islamic State militants have targeted Sufis, who practice a mystical form of Islam that includes the veneration of saints, often at their tombs. - New York Times

Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate? By Patrick B. Johnston & Colin P. Clarke, Foreign Policy: “The Islamic State is already thinking about how to regroup. The Philippines is a long way from the group’s birthplace in the Middle East — but the jihadis have already seized and held a city there for three months, and exerted a grim cost on the country’s security forces to retake it.”

The path to the coup9 October: Mugabe reshuffles his cabinet for the first time in two years.

The president demoted Patrick Chinamasa, his finance minister, and a key supporter of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mr. Mnangagwa was seen by many as the front-runner in succession.

The president dismissed or demoted several of Mr. Mnangagwa’s top supporters and weakened the vice-president’s political power by removing the vice-president’s cabinet portfolio as justice minister and removing him from his post.

Mugabe reallocated key positions to political supporters of his wife, Grace, who was a member of the ruling party and had strong aspirations to succeed Mugabe of her own. The cabinet reshuffle signaled to Mugabe opponents that disloyalty and disobedience would not be tolerated. Mr. Mugabe also appeared to be positioning his wife to succeed him, against popular opinion.

25 October: Zanu-PF announces it will fundraise $8 million for its Extraordinary National People’s Congress in December.

Ahead of the country’s August 2018 elections, Party officials intended the meeting to provide an opportunity for delegates to reaffirm their loyalty to the president, while pledging their support for Mr. Mugabe as the party’s leading candidate for 2018.

6 November: Mugabe dismisses Mnangagwa.

Less than a month after the reshuffle, the president abruptly fired Mnangagwa, who had enjoyed strong support from the military. Mugabe stripped the former-vice president of his lifetime membership to the party

13 November: Zimbabwe’s military chief, General Constantino Chiwenga, speaks at a press conference held at Army Headquarters.

He noted his displeasure with the in-fighting within the ruling party. Speaking to 90 top military officials and the state-run media, the Commander of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces (ZDF) acknowledged the “instability in Zanu-PF” and warned that when it came to “protecting our revolution” the military would “not hesitate to step in” if the recent purge and in-fighting did not cease.

The General also asked for all members of the ZANU-PF party, including those dismissed by Mugabe week earlier, to be permitted to vote at the party’s special congress in December.

The military takes overIn the early morning of 15 November, under the orders of Gen. Chiwenga, the Zimbabwean military seized the state-controlled Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and placed President Mugabe under house arrest. Army officials also detained several cabinet ministers who were aligned with a faction group within ZANU-PF and members of the Mugabe family.

In a televised statement, Major General Sibusiso Moyo stated that the day’s events were not a coup, but an intervention to “pacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation in our country, which if not addressed may result in violent conflict.” Despite lacking an official label, the military action triggered the armed forces to armored vehicles to roam around Harare, the capital city, and troops to guard key security points.

Two days later, Mugabe’s motorcade drove through the Harare without an army escort. This led many to believe that perhaps the former leader had some freedom to move about as he pleased. Later in the day, Mr. Mugabe met with Gen. Chiwengaalong with Roman Catholic officials and South African envoys to discuss the current political and economic state of the country.

The meeting also appeared to be an opportunity for Gen. Chiwenga to announce that the military had taken action to alleviate the political instability within the ruling party, but to officially reiterate that a coup never occurred. Official photos taken from the meeting showed Mugabe smiling and shaking hands with Gen. Chiwenga with no visible signs of distress.

Four scenarios for Zimbabwe's future: At this time, with no clear indications of an orderly succession, there are a few possible scenarios that can unfold, each with their associated risks.

Scenario 1: Mugabe refuses to resignThus far Robert Mugabe has not voluntarily stepped aside as president and leader of ZANU-PF and has said he will preside over the Party Congress in December. In the short run, this raises the risk of unrest, but Mugabe is very unlikely to serve another 5-year term.

Zimbabwean armed forces have stated that the military takeover was only meant to target certain “criminals” who were “causing social and economic suffering in the country.” They vowed to return the situation to normalcy once they accomplished their mission.

The recent talks between the military and the president have been confidential. It is widely suspected that military officials have put pressure on the president to step aside.

If, however, the military simply meant the takeover to be more symbolic — to send a forceful signal within the party to cease any perceived anti-democratic governing, then perhaps Mr. Mugabe has not been unseated. Alternatively, the armed forces could have put pressure on the president to resign in vain, but are unwilling to use violence to actually unseat the autocrat.

Whichever the case may be, Mr. Mugabe is likely testing how far he can go in retaining power. His actions in the past couple of months certainly showed that he was intent on doing so. He may also be buying himself time to negotiate a safe exit for himself and close associates, while preserving his family's assets. However, his actions are increasing the risks of unrest.

Even if he manages to cling on, given Mr. Mugabe's alleged poor health it is highly unlikely that the president could serve another full five-year term. This scenario would ultimately bring us back to the status quo — increased in-fighting within ZANU-PF in the battle to replace Mr. Mugabe.

Scenario 2: Mnangagwa succeeds MugabeDespite being recently fired, Emmerson Mnangagwa remains the likely successor to Robert Mugabe. Whether he can implement reform is another matter.

In the upcoming 2018 general elections, the former VP would have a good chance of victory. A Mnangagwa administration, democratically elected in free and fair elections, would in principle have the legitimacy and clout to implement the type of dramatic economic reform absent from the Mugabe era. Mnangagwa has an economic recovery plan, which involves re-engagement with international creditors and a reform package. However, there is a strong probability that the forces of inertia would prevail under his presidency, given that Mnangagwa is such an entrenched part of the establishment.He has been a central figure of ZANU-PF for decades. This former head of the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO), or secret police, was rumored to be instrumental in the military takeover and it is no secret that Mnangagwa has wanted to replace Mugabe for some time. It may not be a stretch to envision a democratically elected Mnangagwa if the former VP rises from the coup’s ashes to position himself as the anti-Mugabe Dynasty, pro-democracy candidate. He has extensive political experience, support from Zimbabwe’s armed forces and enjoys widespread public support among Zimbabwe’s elite. At the very least, Mnangagwa currently faces almost no credible challengers.Would Mnangagwa still have a chance at succession if Zimbabwe’s 2018 elections are rigged again? Would the ruling party favor a Mnangagwa presidency enough to sway votes his way? This will depend on whether the former VP can maintain popular support into next year, and stave off sustained civil unrest that is likely to arise should there be any perceived political suppression by the ruling party. In short, Mnangagwa's main task in the coming year will be to consolidate power, which will be a distraction from economic reform.

Scenario 3: A new challenger risesA new challenger could emerge from an opposition party and curtail any leading ZANU-PF member’s ambitions of continuing a majority rule.

The challenger would have a tremendous opportunity to take advantage of the ongoing division within the ruling party by distinguishing themselves from the chaos. Moreover, any new challenger could part ways with the ruling party’s policies and rescue Zimbabwe from economic turmoil should they choose to prioritize economic reform over political desires.

In April this year, leaders of the two main opposition parties, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and the National People’s Front, publicly formed an allianceto challenge Mugabe and ZANU-PF in the general election next year. The parties signed a pact in the capital city to challenge the 2018 election results. Over the decades, however, the main opposition parties have also been plagued by power plays and chronic in-fighting that have led many to question their ability to adequately challenge a party that has been ruling over Zimbabwe for 37 years.

Although an opposition challenger may be the breath of fresh air Zimbabwe needs to bring about dramatic reform, it is unlikely that any opposition party could unify and muster sufficient support in time for the general elections in 2018 - which in any case will be at high risk of manipulation.

Scenario 4: Grace Mugabe seizes powerMr. Mugabe has positioned his wife - currently reported to be facing prosecution - to become the next leader of Zimbabwe. In the unlikely event that she won an election, she would face civil unrest and her government would likely fail to pursue much needed economic reform.In recent years, Grace moved from political obscurity to the top ranks of ZANU-PF in a relatively short period of time. She leads ZANU-PF’s Women’s League, which has publicly supported the idea of Mrs. Mugabe replacing Mnangagwa as the next VP. She also leads a splinter group of the ruling party, the so-called “Generation 40” faction (G40). This informal group markets itself as comprising younger and more educated members of the ZANU-PF party, and aims to replace the aging, less flexible members of the ruling party.

Despite apparently being detained during the coup alongside members of G40, Mrs. Mugabe cannot be entirely dismissed from the succession equation. Robert Mugabe may well attempt to negotiate her release as a condition of him stepping down, leaving her free to run in the 2018 elections should that option be on the cards.

In the highly unlikely event that Mrs. Mugabe did become president, widespread civil unrest would almost certainly ensue. Public polls indicate Zimbabweans have little desire to willingly accept a Mugabe dynasty. Many Zimbabweans perceive the first lady to be corrupt. Mrs. Mugabe, nicknamed “Gucci Grace,” has dominated local headlines over the years with her extravagant lifestyle, allegedly paid for by the embezzlement of the country’s assets. Thus, the first lady has very little popular support.

Economic outlook: Zimbabwe has struggled with an economic crisis for decades. Cash shortages, widespread corruption and food scarcity have plagued the country, while the Mugabe administration has done little to alleviate the emergency.Following the 2018 elections, any successor of Mr. Mugabe could secure their political future by creating economic policies to adequately address Zimbabwe’s financial crisis. The new administration should specifically focus on high public spending and a growing foreign and domestic debt. The National Treasury could significantly curtail public spending by slashing extraordinarily high government salaries to reign in the fiscal deficit.

The country’s GDP growth is forecast to slightly improve absent any change in the current administration, but a newcomer could encourage policies to raise GDP levels to Zimbabwe’s full potential. Furthermore, Zimbabwe’s central bank could halt injecting any further liquidity into the market by limiting currency over-printing and preventing another episode of hyperinflation experienced more than a decade ago.There is no argument that Robert Mugabe’s reign is coming to an end. Whether the end of his presidency has already occurred, or occurs in the very near feature, means little for long-term political risk. What matters most is if the Mugabe legacy continues. Whoever is next in line to become Zimbabwe’s next president will face the challenge of fixing damage done during the Mugabe years.

Key indicators to watch out for will be whether Mugabe clarifies his intentions in the next few days; whether quick action is taken to address corruption; whether Zimbabwe's political transition receives support from the international community; and whether the elections in 2018 are free and fair. This is the sequence of events that would give Zimbabwe the best chance at a brighter future. At present however, short-term chaos, and cosmetic changes to the status quo in the longer term, seem to be the most likely outcome.

With the help of China, the aim is turn the century-old Abadan refinery from a millstone costing the government up to $700 million a year into a cash cow that can meet Iran’s domestic demand for better quality fuel rather than relying on imports. - Bloomberg

Editorial: His nation is a smoldering ruin, much of it held by rival armed factions, domestic or foreign. Half the population is displaced, hundreds of thousands have died and much of the West regards him as a tyrant and human rights abuser. But Syrian President Bashar Assad appears to have survived the war and is likely to hold onto power for the foreseeable future. - Associated Press

Riyad Hijab, the head of Syria's main opposition bloc, has resigned before a conference scheduled in Saudi Arabia aimed at "unifying" various groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. - Al Jazeera

Russia, Iran, Turkey shape Syria's future in SochiRussian President Vladimir Putinhosts Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi today for a trilateral summit on the war in Syria. Putin held a surprise meeting with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on Monday in Sochi where he all but declared victory in the Syrian civil war. Following the meeting, the Russian president called key stakeholders in the conflict, including US President Donald Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Qatari Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Erdogan. The Russian, Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers had previously met in Turkey over the weekend to prepare for the summit. Putin also hopes to convene a Syrian peace conference in Russia with key stakeholders in December but the idea has faced Turkish resistance over the proposed inclusion of Syrian Kurds.Read More

AMISOM: A Decade into the Fight Against Al ShabaabBy Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “The multinational peacekeeping force known as AMISOM has been losing the momentum in its battle against al Shabaab in Somalia, as evidenced by the massive Oct. 14th truck bomb that killed more than 350 people in the capital Mogadishu. While AMISOM – the African Union Mission in Somalia – was initially successful in rooting out the group from southern Somalia, it can’t address the root cause that has given al Shabaab purchase on the population: a weak Somali central government that is still unable to provide services or security to its people.” ​

In area U.S. soldiers died in Niger, Islamist extremists have deep root

If America Topples North Korea and Iran, What Happens Next? By George Perkovich, The National Interest: “Removing hostile regimes, including by means of military action, is the logical solution if one concludes that a “rogue state” cannot be deterred. This thinking drove the George W. Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq. Many champions of that operation have now reemerged within the Trump administration and on its friendly periphery. North Korea and Iran are the two remaining members of President Bush’s “Axis of Evil.””

South Korea’s top official on North Korea said that rapid advances in Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons program this year have revived the Kim regime’s long-dormant ambitions of unifying the Korean Peninsula on its terms. But Cho Myoung-gyon, the South’s unification minister, dismissed those ambitions as unrealistic during an interview Thursday, instead urging North Korea to sit down with Seoul for talks. - Wall Street Journal​China said Thursday that it will stick by its “freeze-for-freeze” proposal to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, contradicting a suggestion by President Trump that it had turned against the plan. - Washington Post

Russia blocked a U.S.-written resolution at the United Nations Security Council on Thursday that would have extended an international investigation into chemical weapons use in Syria, angering diplomats who said Moscow was making it difficult to prevent future attacks. - Washington Post

The U.S. is laying the groundwork to build a type of missile banned by a Cold War-era pact unless Russia abandons its own pursuit of the weapons, U.S. officials said. - Wall Street Journal

Russia's New Tu-160M2: Are Moscow's Bomber Ambitions Realistic? By Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “The new White Swans will supposedly carry a powerful new defensive system that the KRET executive boasted could “protect against all possible types of missiles.” Neither Mikheyev nor TASS offered any specific details about this particular system, but there are a number of possibilities.”

Merkel Maroonedquoting Josef Joffe via National ReviewWhen Christian Lindner, leader of Germany’s market-minded Free Democrat party, walked out of the three-party negotiations intended to forge a new federal government from the fragmented political spectrum that emerged from the recent elections, he signaled the end of Germany’s post-war political settlement — one of almost astounding stability.