The poll asked likely voters who they would vote for if the election were held today.

Lujan Grisham leads both among women—55 percent to 36 percent over Pearce—and men—47 percent to 30 percent over Pearce. The poll shows Walsh with the support of 5 percent of men and 2 percent of women.

Lujan Grisham also leads among all age ranges, with the largest advantage among voters between the ages of 18 and 34—50 percent to 27 percent over Pearce, while Walsh brings in 8 percent.

The poll shows the Republican and Democratic nominees with a similar amount of support from their own party, with Pearce pulling in 79 percent of registered Republicans and 85 percent of those who consider themselves affiliated with Republicans. Lujan Grisham has the support of 77 percent of registered Democrats and 89 percent of those who consider themselves affiliated with Democrats.

Lujan Grisham leads among those who are decline-to-state voters, 42 percent to 32 percent over Pearce with Walsh at 12 percent. Lujan Grisham and Pearce are tied at 36 percent among those who consider themselves affiliated with independents, while Walsh gets the support of 11 percent.

A plurality of voters, 26 percent, said education is the most important issue in determining their vote, while 21 percent said the same about immigration, 19 percent about jobs and 17 percent crime.

The Pearce campaign disputed the results of the poll.

“This poll projects a likely electorate significantly larger than even a Presidential election, and almost double the turnout of the last gubernatorial election,” Pearce campaign pollster B.J. Martino, a partner at the Repulbican pollster The Tarrance Group, said. “We do not believe that is possible.”

The poll surveyed 535 likely voters between June 19 and June 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points. The poll surveyed 59 percent through a landline and 41 percent through a smartphone questionnaire.

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State Rep. Bobby Gonzales shook his head from side to side after listening to all the suggestions about how to meet a judge's order to provide more resources to New Mexico children who, in the court's view, are not receiving a good public education. "About 15 different ideas," the Democrat from Taos said following a hearing on the topic last week in the House Appropriations and Finance Committee.

State Rep. Bobby Gonzales shook his head from side to side after listening to all the suggestions about how to meet a judge's order to provide more resources to New Mexico children who, in the court's view, are not receiving a good public education. "About 15 different ideas," the Democrat from Taos said following a hearing on the topic last week in the House Appropriations and Finance Committee.

Gov. Susana Martinez left office with low approval ratings, according to Morning Consult.
Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators’ approval ratings remained over 40 percent, with a high amount of voters with no opinion. The pollster found Martinez’s approval rating among all registered voters in her final three months in office was just 35 percent, while 49 percent disapproved of the Republican’s job performance.

Gov. Susana Martinez left office with low approval ratings, according to Morning Consult.
Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators’ approval ratings remained over 40 percent, with a high amount of voters with no opinion. The pollster found Martinez’s approval rating among all registered voters in her final three months in office was just 35 percent, while 49 percent disapproved of the Republican’s job performance.

U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham will take on a new title in January when she becomes New Mexico’s next governor. Ending the nearly two-year-long campaign for governor, Lujan Grisham and her opponent Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce each addressed their respective supporters Tuesday night.

State Rep. Bobby Gonzales shook his head from side to side after listening to all the suggestions about how to meet a judge's order to provide more resources to New Mexico children who, in the court's view, are not receiving a good public education.

Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The former founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew was also a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.
Matthew has appeared as a panelist for the Society of Professional Journalists’ New Mexico Chapter’s panel on covering New Mexico politics and the legislature.
A native New Mexican from Rio Rancho, Matthew’s family has been in New Mexico since the 1600s.