Week 11 NFL Power Rankings: Win projections for all 32 teams

Six rushing touchdowns for the Saints on Sunday. Six sacks for Adrian Clayborn. Only six incompletions for C.J. Beathard. The lessons from Week 10 are brought to you by the number six.

Which teams have the most and least favorable schedules over the second half of the season? It looks like tough sledding for some NFC clubs, while the Jaguars have the easiest path to the postseason.

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Here’s a rundown of the Week 11 Power Rankings, as voted on by our power panel — a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities — with a look at every team’s projected win totals, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

ESPN Stats & Information’s John McTigue contributed the following information.

Methodology: These rankings are based on which teams voters think would win head-to-head matchups. Higher-ranked teams would be favored against lower-ranked teams. Coming off a win doesn’t guarantee a jump, and a loss doesn’t guarantee a fall.

Projected wins: 12.4. The Eagles have the highest win total projection in the NFL, according to FPI. As long as they can protect the football, there’s no reason to think the victories can’t keep coming. Philadelphia lost the turnover battle just once this season, in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs.

2017 record: 7-2Week 10 ranking: No. 2

Projected wins: 12.1. The Patriots just started a stretch of five road games in six weeks and are still projected to win 12.1 games. They’ve allowed 13.4 points per game during their five-game win streak, the third-lowest in the NFL in that span.

2017 record: 7-2Week 10 ranking: No. 9

Projected wins: 11.6. Over their seven-game win streak, the Saints have rushed for 1,139 yards and 14 touchdowns. That’s not bad for a team that was projected to win just 7.9 games in the preseason.

2017 record: 7-2Week 10 ranking: No. 3

Projected wins: 11.9. Only the Eagles and Patriots are projected to win more games than the Steelers through Week 10. They’ll have to leave Pittsburgh for only two of their remaining seven games, one of which is in nearby Cincinnati.

2017 record: 6-3Week 10 ranking: No. 5

Projected wins: 11.0. If the Chiefs hit their current projection, it would be their third straight season with 11 or more wins. They shouldn’t have much trouble getting there. They have the second-easiest remaining schedule.

2017 record: 7-2Week 10 ranking: No. 4

Projected wins: 11.1.Case Keenum has the third-best Total QBR this season (72.5). He has been sacked just once since Week 4, and if he can keep up this level of play, the Vikings could cruise to 11 wins.

2017 record: 7-2Week 10 ranking: No. 7

Projected wins: 11.0. The Rams have scored 30 points in a game six times this season, the most in the NFL. The improvement on offense is the biggest reason they’re now projected to win five more games than predicted in the preseason.

2017 record: 6-3Week 10 ranking: No. 6

Projected wins: 10.3. The secondary is banged up, the penalties are adding up (the most in the NFL), and they can’t run the ball. Russell Wilson has been the saving grace, leading the team in rushing in addition to throwing 12 of his 19 touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks will need him even more down the stretch if they want to meet their win projection.

2017 record: 6-3Week 10 ranking: No. 10

Projected wins: 10.9. The preseason projections seemed generous when the Jaguars were pegged with 6.7 wins. Now they are projected for almost 11 wins, which doesn’t seem at all far-fetched. It helps that the Jags have the easiest remaining schedule.

2017 record: 7-3Week 10 ranking: No. 11

Projected wins: 10.4. The Panthers’ run game had been lacking for most of the season, but they’ve eclipsed 200 rushing yards and scored multiple rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games. If the ground game keeps going, with the strength of their defense, the Panthers will keep winning.

2017 record: 5-4Week 10 ranking: No. 17

Projected wins: 8.5. No team has a more difficult remaining schedule than the Falcons. They still have a trip to Seattle, two games against the Saints and home games against the Vikings and Panthers. If there’s any reason for hope, it’s that they have four home games left, plus two games against the 3-6 Buccaneers.

2017 record: 6-3Week 10 ranking: No. 14

Projected wins: 9.5. The Titans have won four straight, averaging 125 rushing yards per game and out-rushing opponents by 222 yards over that stretch. If they can continue to control the ground game, they should have no problem reaching their projected win total.

2017 record: 5-4Week 10 ranking: No. 8

Projected wins: 8.8. The Cowboys could probably get by without Ezekiel Elliott, but if left tackle Tyron Smith misses any more games, they could be in big trouble. Dak Prescott was sacked eight times against the Falcons last week without Smith — the most sacks a Cowboys QB had taken since Troy Aikman in 1991.

2017 record: 5-4Week 10 ranking: No. 16

Projected wins: 8.9. The Lions are 5-4, but their losses have been to teams over .500. They have just two games remaining against current winning teams (the Vikings and Packers), and both are at home.

2017 record: 4-5Week 10 ranking: No. 12

Projected wins: 7.0. The Raiders will have to protect the ball and/or force turnovers in order to reach their projected win total. They’re 1-5 when losing the turnover battle this season and 3-0 when breaking even or winning it.

2017 record: 5-4Week 10 ranking: No. 15

Projected wins: 7.8. The Bills were once 5-2, but two straight losses by a combined 50 points have tempered expectations around Buffalo. They’ve allowed 492 yards and nine touchdowns to opposing rushers the past two weeks.

2017 record: 5-4Week 10 ranking: No. 18

Projected wins: 8.3.Brett Hundley has increased his completion percentage and yards per attempt with every start this season. The Packers still have a tough road ahead, with the Ravens and Steelers over the next two weeks, but the season might not be completely lost if Hundley keeps improving.

2017 record: 4-5Week 10 ranking: No. 13

Projected wins: 7.6. The Redskins have played the toughest schedule to date, but they have the second-easiest remaining schedule. The potential for wins is there, with two games against the Giants and home matchups with the Cardinals and Broncos still to come.

2017 record: 3-6Week 10 ranking: No. 19

Projected wins: 7.2. The Chargers have turned losing close games into an art form. They have five losses by eight or fewer points this season, tied with the 49ers for most in the NFL. Statistically, they’re bound to win in more of these situations sooner or later.

2017 record: 4-5Week 10 ranking: No. 20

Projected wins: 8.1.Joe Flacco has thrown eight touchdowns in nine games and has thrown multiple touchdowns just twice this season. Still, the Ravens could have the QB advantage the next two weeks with matchups against Brett Hundley and Tom Savage.

2017 record: 3-6Week 10 ranking: No. 24

Projected wins: 6.5. The Texans have averaged 9.3 points per game when Tom Savage has started versus 34.7 points per game when Deshaun Watson has started. With Watson out, it could be a tall task for the Texans to double their current win total.

2017 record: 3-6Week 10 ranking: No. 21

Projected wins: 6.6. The Broncos have allowed 92 points the past two weeks. The quarterback situation is a mess, the special teams are a mess, and the defense — which was supposed to be a strong suit — is in disarray as a result. Their projection might be generous at this point.

2017 record: 3-6Week 10 ranking: No. 28

Projected wins: 5.7.Ryan Fitzpatrick brought his Fitz-magic in Week 10 to snap the Buccaneers’ five-game losing streak. That was against the Jets, though. The Bucs have the Falcons (twice), Saints, Panthers, Packers and Lions the rest of the way.

2017 record: 4-6Week 10 ranking: No. 22

Projected wins: 5.4. The Jets were projected to win 4.0 games in the preseason, so they’ve already met those expectations. But after losing four of their past five, the Jets could be lucky to meet the new expectation.

2017 record: 4-5Week 10 ranking: No. 23

Projected wins: 6.2.Drew Stanton is 7-4 as the starter since joining the team in 2013, so the Cardinals aren’t completely lost without Carson Palmer. But their upcoming schedule includes four games against teams currently 6-3 or better, so wins might not come easily.

2017 record: 4-5Week 10 ranking: No. 26

Projected wins: 6.3. When you have the worst scoring offense in the NFL, as the Dolphins do (15.2 points per game), you have to be strong defensively. Unfortunately for Miami, the defense has allowed 37.3 points per game during the team’s three-game losing streak.

2017 record: 3-6Week 10 ranking: No. 25

Projected wins: 6.2. The Bengals have the third-worst turnover differential in the NFL this season (minus-9). Can they double their current win total with that sloppy play? Their next two games are against the two teams with worse turnover margins: the Broncos and Browns.

2017 record: 3-6Week 10 ranking: No. 27

Projected wins: 5.6. The Bears have games against the 49ers and Browns on their remaining schedule, so there are wins on the table. If Mitchell Trubisky — who has three touchdowns in five starts — can start making plays, the Bears could sneak out a few other wins.

2017 record: 3-7Week 10 ranking: No. 29

Projected wins: 4.5. Crazy stat of the day: Jacoby Brissett has the most 60-yard passing touchdowns (4) by a Colts quarterback in a season since Johnny Unitas in 1966 (4). Those big plays have helped the Colts to three wins, but they’re currently the FPI underdog in each of their remaining six games.

2017 record: 1-8Week 10 ranking: No. 30

Projected wins: 3.8. Admittedly, FPI has struggled to put the Giants’ fall from grace into proper context, given how well they played last season with Eli Manning and Ben McAdoo. After losing to the 49ers, it’s hard to see the Giants beating any of their remaining opponents.

2017 record: 1-9Week 10 ranking: No. 31

Projected wins: 2.4. Do the 49ers have another win in them? If not, they’ll be staring at their first one-win season. They had no such seasons in their history.

2017 record: 0-9Week 10 ranking: No. 32

Projected wins: 1.6. It’s really hard to lose this much, but even the projections don’t think the Browns are going to find the win column frequently down the stretch. They haven’t won the turnover battle in any game this season and have the worst team in Total QBR.