Temps in the mid 30's with rain makes up the mid-day weather picture. Where the precip. comes down heavier it changes to snow.Accumulations in the metro area have been 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow and sleet and rain has been the predominate mode of precip.The computer models continue to show the rain-snow line too far south. Where snow does develop this afternoon a quick 1 to 3 inches will fall. Many areas will stay all rain.The NWS is keeping the Winter Storm WARNING this afternoon... here is their latest forecast discussion just issued.Very tricky near term forecast for this afternoon. Latest aircraft sounding data in and out of SDF still shows max temp aloft around 0 C or even slightly below. This would suggest snow as crystals forming higher up in colder parts of clouds stay as snow all the way to ground. However, saturated surface layer has warmed into the mid 30s meaning that snow is either melting or partially melting before it reaches the ground. Also, we have had reports of rain but with transitions to snow, back to rain, etc. For instance, we had a recent report of rain in Nelson County, but rain that changed to snow in Larue County to the south of Nelson County.The transition to snow generally is associated with heavier precip bursts where slight dynamic cooling aloft and larger snowflakes are allowing snow to remain as such as it falls to the ground. When precip lightens, it generally goes back to rain at least a mix. KLVX dual pol data has shown plenty this morning from mixed to all rain and all snow, again generally tied to precip rates/dBZ values. New 12z models coming in don't necessarily clear things up. NAM holds temps aloft right around 0 C suggesting more of the same this afternoon over the northern half of forecast area. GFS shows another surge of slightly warmer air aloft coming across most of central KY this afternoon suggesting all rain. Even where rain falls, numerous roads, especially back roads remain slick.

Temps in the mid 30's with rain makes up the mid-day weather picture. Where the precip. comes down heavier it changes to snow.

Accumulations in the metro area have been 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow and sleet and rain has been the predominate mode of precip.

Advertisement

The computer models continue to show the rain-snow line too far south. Where snow does develop this afternoon a quick 1 to 3 inches will fall. Many areas will stay all rain.

The NWS is keeping the Winter Storm WARNING this afternoon... here is their latest forecast discussion just issued.Very tricky near term forecast for this afternoon. Latest aircraft sounding data in and out of SDF still shows max temp aloft around 0 C or even slightly below. This would suggest snow as crystals forming higher up in colder parts of clouds stay as snow all the way to ground. However, saturated surface layer has warmed into the mid 30s meaning that snow is either melting or partially melting before it reaches the ground. Also, we have had reports of rain but with transitions to snow, back to rain, etc. For instance, we had a recent report of rain in Nelson County, but rain that changed to snow in Larue County to the south of Nelson County.

The transition to snow generally is associated with heavier precip bursts where slight dynamic cooling aloft and larger snowflakes are allowing snow to remain as such as it falls to the ground. When precip lightens, it generally goes back to rain at least a mix.

KLVX dual pol data has shown plenty this morning from mixed to all rain and all snow, again generally tied to precip rates/dBZ values. New 12z models coming in don't necessarily clear things up. NAM holds temps aloft right around 0 C suggesting more of the same this afternoon over the northern half of forecast area. GFS shows another surge of slightly warmer air aloft coming across most of central KY this afternoon suggesting all rain. Even where rain falls, numerous roads, especially back roads remain slick.