I’m not predicting Mark Richt’s fate here, but something to consider if 2011 goes south in a very bad way is how McGarity goes about choosing a successor. It’s a decision that most Richt haters and change-worshipers brush off, but as this chart by the estimable Bill Connelly demonstrates, where you shop for the replacement matters big time.

Two-year change at BCS Conferences Based on Coaching Type

Coaching Type

N

1st Yr
Chg.

Avg. Two-Yr
Chg.

Applicable 2010 Teams

College Assistant

30

-0.8%

+1.4%

Florida State, Kentucky, Louisville, Vanderbilt

BCS Conf. Coach

18

+0.5%

+5.4%

Notre Dame, Texas Tech, USC

Non-BCS Conf. Coach

12

-0.8%

+2.3%

Cincinnati, Kansas, South Florida, Tennessee

Fired BCS Conf. Coach

5

+2.0%

-1.1%

NFL

7

-7.6%

-4.8%

FCS Coach

4

-5.0%

-16.0%

Virginia

Grand Total

76

-1.2%

+0.8%

It’s pretty much a no-brainer to go after a successful college head coach. Keep that in mind the next time you see a wish list circulate.

Isn’t looking at only eight years of data kind of a small sample size? I mean, there were only four FCS coaches hired in that span. You have a decent sample of assistant coaches hired as head coaches and not a useless one with BCS conference coaches, but the rest of the numbers look pretty meaningless.

Quote Of The Day

“It's definitely different not knowing exactly who it's gonna be, but in a way, I feel like that's good,” he said. “One of my old coaches from Valdosta told me that competition is one of the best coaches. And I feel like, as well as each one of those three guys is performing, they're not gonna do anything but make each other better.” -- Jay Rome, The Red & Black, 3/25/15