LONDON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–June 16, 2016 – A deteriorating security situation has caused Western European defence budgets to rise for the first time in six years, according analysis released at the Eurosatory defence and security trade show by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. Approximately $50 billion will be added to Western European defence budgets across the region between 2016 and 2019.

“The deteriorating security environment in Europe over the last two years has resulted in a sharp reversal of defence spending trends in several EU member states, particularly those in the Western Europe,” said Fenella McGerty, principal analyst at IHS Jane’s Defence Budgets. “Ten countries in Western Europe implemented cuts to their defence budget in 2015; only five are expected to do so in 2016.”

Western European defence spending has been cut by 1.3 percent on average annually since 2009. This year, 2016, will be the first year of growth. However, the recovery to pre-financial crisis levels won’t be expected until around 2020.

Speaking at the Eurosatory conference in Paris, McGerty noted the drivers of this change include Russian actions in Ukraine, terrorist acts in France and Belgium, and operations against the Islamic State.

“The 7 January and 13 November attacks in Paris led to an acute upward revision to the French military financing plan and sent wider ripples throughout the region as countries looked to re-assess their security measures and protocols,” McGerty said. “Germany pursued further upward revisions to defence spending plans and the UK improved its outlook beyond 2017. Austria’s recent 17 percent increase in defence spending is the latest in a series of regional trend reversals over the last year.”

UK – increasing spend to 2019

According to the 2015 SDSR and Spending Review, defence spending in the UK will increase 3.1 percent in real terms for 2015 to 2019. Furthermore, security and intelligence agencies were given an additional £1.3 billion, cyber security an additional £1.9 billion, and the country’s defence equipment plan was increased by £12 billion to fund over 170 projects. “Defence spending is to remain above 2 percent of UK GDP for now, but will continue to decline as current projections for economic growth outpace growth in defence,” McGerty said. “Of course, projections are likely to be altered upon the result of the upcoming EU Referendum.”

France – €500 million added to French defence spending

France added €3.9 billion to its 2016-2019 defence budget following the January 2015 attacks on Charlie Hebdo. After the November 2015 attacks, IHS estimates that a further €500 million will be added to French spending. The 2016 budget created 2,300 defence jobs rather than cutting 7,500.

“Despite these additions, France’s defence budget will continue to fall as a percentage of GDP from 2.2 per cent in 2005 to 1.94 percent of GDP in 2016, slightly below NATO guidelines,” McGerty said.

Germany – spending back to 2009 levels by 2017

Defence spending in Germany grew by almost 5 percent annually between 2005 and 2009, increasing from 1.1 percent to 1.3 percent of GDP. The 6 percent contraction in Germany’s economy in 2009 saw spending falter over the last five years.

“Despite an unfavourable international environment, Germany’s economic recovery remains on path and this gradual recovery combined with a deteriorating security environment resulted in a steadily improving finance plan for defence in Germany,” McGerty said.

The 50th Finance Plan effectively brings spending back up to 2009 levels by 2017, reversing the cuts made over the last five to six years. “The defence budget is now holding steady at around 1.12 percent of GDP,” McGerty said. “While this is well below the NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defence, it is a significant improvement over previous finance plans that would have seen German defence spending fall to 0.9 percent of GDP.”

Eastern Europe – defence spending soaring

“Defence spending in Eastern Europe is soaring,” McGerty said. “Trends have altered significantly since the Russian annexation of Crimea and defence budgets have already recovered to pre-financial crisis levels as fiscal conditions have improved.”

Spending is expected to reach around $30 billion by the end of the decade. Poland and Greece account for 53 percent of the total, despite the Greece budget being down 8 percent in 2015. Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia are all targeting defence spending to be 2 percent of GDP, in line with NATO guidelines.

Peace Through Tourism

How Travel & Tourism Can Help Restore the Balance in the Emerging New World Order

"The travel & tourism buzzword of the 21st century will be the search for balance."

That forecast was made by Imtiaz Muqbil, Executive Editor, Travel Impact Newswire, in the monthly strategic intelligence publication of PATA, the Pacific Asia Travel Association, way back in February 1999. Today, it is proving spot-on as the word "balance" resonates across all industry sectors.

Travel industry conferences seeking a speaker who can offer some unique historical hindsight, unconventional foresight and thought-provoking insight on how to rebuild and restore the balance in Asia Pacific travel & tourism can email Imtiaz Muqbil by clicking here.

There Can Be No Sustainability Without Spirituality

The New World Order will be dominated by a resurgence of spirituality.

Imtiaz Muqbil claims to be the world's only travel journalist to have visited the Holy Spots of all the major world religions -- Lumbhini, Bodhgaya, Varanasi, Nalanda, Jerusalem, Vatican City, Amritsar, Makkah, Madinah, Najaf and Karbala, as well as religious spots such as Angkor Wat, Bagan, Shwedagon Pagoda, Temple of the Emerald Buddha, Temple of The Tooth, Somnath Temple, Samarkand, Bukhara and many other great mosques, shrines, temples and cathedrals worldwide.

Sustainability, ecotourism and health & wellness travel have all become so 'yesterday'. Prepare for the new generation of travel in the New World Order and raise the bar of your next conference, management forum or seminar by hearing Imtiaz Muqbil's thoughts on this unmatched game- and life-changing experience.

==========

Secrets of Thailand's Tourism Success

Why the Amazing Kingdom is notching up record-breaking arrivals, and what challenges it faces next

The Thai tourism industry has become by far the Kingdom's most successful service sector, one of its leading job-creators and foreign exchange-earners. Behind this success lies a fascinating history of great branding campaigns, policy and regulatory changes, budgetary bunfights, strategic thinking and influence of Royal events.

But this success has now bred a new set of management challenges that may be more difficult to overcome.

Travel Impact Newswire Executive Editor Imtiaz Muqbil has been monitoring the pulse of the Thai travel industry full-time since 1981. Industry conferences and management meetings wishing to benefit from a treasure trove of insights and hindsights on one of the world's great tourism success stories can drop an email here: imtiaz@travel-impact-newswire.com.

============

The Rise of the Whistle-Blowers

For 15 years (January 1997-July 2012), Imtiaz Muqbil penned a hard-hitting fortnightly column called “Soul-Searching” in the so-called “newspaper you can trust”. In July 2012, the column was gagged, with no explanation.

Over the years, four columns had explicitly forecast the rise of whistle-blowers -- a prediction now coming 100% true. Read the four columns by clicking on the links below.

Too Bad Your Ad Is Not in This Spot

Space available for unique ads that demonstrate commitment to helping physically-challenged people, building global peace, improving social and cultural cohesion, providing opportunities for the under-privileged, alleviating poverty and combatting global injustice & corruption.

If your product is not meeting any of the above goals, please advertise elsewhere.

===============

News Vs Noise

A Unique Course for Travel & Tourism Communicators In The Internet Era

By far the vast majority of media communications in the travel industry is boring, banal and bland. The same way it has been for the last 30 years.

Travel Impact Newswire Executive Editor Imtiaz Muqbil has designed a special communications course to help upgrade both the context and the content of industry media material, and make it more interesting, readable and, most important, relevant.