Where Islam spreads, freedom dies

Two thirds of Africans dream of living in Europe. The genocide researcher Gunnar Heinsohn wonders: how much longer can the old continent fend people off with patrol boats, observation planes and border fences?

It's a hundred years since there lived in Germany and France almost as many people as on the entire African continent (110 million to 120 million). Since 1913, however, the circumstances have fundamentally changed. In 2013 there are not only an imposing 7.1 billion people in the whole world, but Africa has seven times as many as the Paris-Berlin axis (1072 million compared to 145 million).

And many Africans now live among us. West of the Rhine there may now be at least 5 million, including 3.2 million from the Arab north. East of it there may be a million, around half of whom are Arabs.

In any event, we can foresee whether the refugees who drowned in front of Lampedusa will influence the wish of the Africans to immigrate. Most likely hardly at all. Because, in Africa, they will only weigh the deadly slowness of the Europeans in rescuing refugees against the rapid local massacres and genocides, in which, after the withdrawal of the white overlords, it was not hundreds or thousands that lost their lives, but around 18 million (Encyclopedia of Genocides). Just as Europeans, when they had Somalia-style birthrates, slaughtered mainly other Europeans, so most victims of Africans come mostly from the same neighbourhood.

To be added to that: Between 2010 and 2012 – because of lack of borrowing capacity – the number of undernourished people grew from 175 to 240 million people in Africa alone, while, according to information from the FAO, the number fell drastically everywhere else.

The continent that has nine times as much land as India with fewer inhabitants is not able to establish an economy with pledges, interest and money. Therefore we should not be surprised that according to a PEW poll, two-thirds of those remaining in Africa - around 700 million people - would also like to come here. Those who fought for their lives in the boat that was set on fire and then sank off Lampedusa constituted less than one millionth of their number.

The flows of refugees will not stop. On the contrary: they will increase further

Although the growth of population is slowing down, it is still increasing strongly. By 2050 the earth will have to provide for 9.1 billion people. But while Germany and France are ageing, forty times as many people will then be living in Africa as in the core countries of the EU (2100 million compared to 150 million). How many Africans there will then be among the Europeans can only be estimated. A figure of 15 to 20 million in Germany and France alone will surely be close to the mark. Assuming their wish to emigrate remains unchanged and that there continue to be no credit-worthy assets south of the Sahara, in 35 years around 1.4 billion Africans will be trying to get into the First World.

The kind of dynamic that will emerge from that can be foreseen with a look at the 19th century. Between 1800 (world population: 1 billion) and 1900 (1.7 billion), Great Britain grew - after the defeat of France - to become the dominant world power. Australia and New Zealand were built up in place of the lost eastern coasts of the United States. At the same time, the British established a string of colonies from North to South across Africa. This succeeded not only due to the most modern industries and weapons of that era, but because a then unprecedented growth in the population by a factor of 3.6 (10 to 36 million) on the home islands alone (that is ignoring the simultaneous emigration) allowed whole continents to be subjugated. The territories of the later German empire experienced a growth factor of "only" 2.5 (22 to 55 million) in the same century, also claiming their place in the sun.

After 1945 Europe – where birthrates fell by half in 1915 and then again after 1970 – lost its areas of domination. In its place, birthrates in the former colonies then first began to really take off. There the population is increasing not only by a factor of 3, but by 10 and more. The growth in human potential is measured not only in 8 figures, but in 9: in hundreds of millions. Not only in Africa.

They are flooding from the former colonies not only to Italy, but also Greece. Hopefuls from Asia are also arriving there. Especially youths from the Islam trio of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, are reaching Europe's shores via Turkey. In 1900 the territories of these three states had only as many inhabitants as the German empire (around 55 million). But in 2050 they will have 550 million. Many of them will also dream of joining their then 75 million contemporaries between the Mosel and Neiße (Germany).

At the same time the fast-ageing west is paying many billions so that ten European women will raise 14 or 15 children instead of 13. Alongside that, the costs for patrol boats, observation planes and borders fences are exploding in the south and east. It will be politically interesting when the grey hairs acknowledge that increasing people here and fending off people there can no longer be paid for and both strategies can be kept going for only a few years, no longer decades. Then the EU will fall apart and new national models will emerge.

Some will let in migrants in a targeted way, but otherwise secure their borders, in order to be able to maintain minimum social and civil standards. Japan, Singapore, Canada and Australia provide examples of this. Scandinavia could follow first with a new Kalmar Union. Other states will continue as before. But by doing that they will run the risk of social, religious and ethnic conflicts coming to a head and having their top performers moving to more stable states. Illustrative examples are not only Detroit or Marseilles, but Berlin or Bremen here in Germany.