As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

The AFC wildcard competitors appear to be either BAL or PIT, depending on who loses the division, plus IND, MIA, SD, and NYJ. In the NFC, it's looking like either CHI or GB, whichever team comes in second, plus SEA, DAL, MIN, and a bunch at 10% or below. Despite what the numbers say, it looks like NO has improved significantly beyond their early-season lows and have a better shot than indicated.

These numbers do not count IND's win last night. Sorry about that. They were heavily favored by the model, so the effect is modest. For up to date numbers, you can always go straight to nfl-forecast.com.

AFC EAST

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

NE

63

25

10

2

MIA

29

40

22

9

NYJ

6

24

44

26

BUF

2

11

24

63

AFC NORTH

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

BAL

44

48

8

0

PIT

54

39

7

1

CIN

2

13

70

15

CLE

0

1

15

84

AFC SOUTH

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

HOU

97

3

0

0

IND

3

84

13

1

TEN

0

12

66

22

JAC

0

1

21

78

AFC WEST

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

DEN

98

2

0

0

SD

2

60

38

0

OAK

0

38

60

2

KC

0

0

3

97

NFC EAST

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

NYG

76

20

4

1

DAL

17

48

24

11

PHI

4

18

39

39

WAS

3

14

33

49

NFC NORTH

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

CHI

56

30

10

3

GB

32

37

20

10

DET

7

19

35

39

MIN

5

14

34

48

NFC SOUTH

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

ATL

98

2

0

0

TB

2

47

35

16

CAR

0

41

41

18

NO

0

11

23

66

NFC WEST

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

SF

92

7

1

0

SEA

7

69

19

6

STL

1

14

47

37

ARI

0

9

34

57

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Total

HOU

79

13

4

1

2

0

100

DEN

13

52

21

12

1

1

99

NE

4

10

19

30

7

9

79

BAL

2

11

19

13

19

12

76

PIT

2

9

23

20

14

11

80

IND

1

1

1

0

22

17

41

MIA

0

3

11

15

11

14

53

SD

0

0

0

1

9

11

22

NYJ

0

0

1

5

4

8

18

CIN

0

0

1

1

3

5

10

OAK

0

0

0

0

5

7

12

BUF

0

0

0

2

2

3

7

TEN

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

CLE

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

JAC

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

KC

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Total

ATL

52

25

14

6

0

1

99

SF

25

33

21

13

3

2

97

CHI

13

17

17

9

20

11

87

NYG

7

14

22

33

4

6

86

GB

3

7

14

8

21

16

69

SEA

0

2

2

1

26

20

53

DET

0

1

3

2

12

13

32

MIN

0

1

1

3

4

7

15

TB

0

0

0

1

3

6

11

DAL

0

0

2

15

3

7

27

STL

0

0

1

1

1

4

6

PHI

0

0

0

4

0

1

5

ARI

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

WAS

0

0

0

3

1

2

5

NO

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

CAR

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

published on 11/09/2012

By
Brian Burke

11 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 10”

Does this model just factor in straight win probability for each week? If so, the Colts are potentially underrated, as they play Houston in week 17 (when the Texans will probably have the #1 seed locked up and have their starters benched). The Bucs are potentially in the same boat, too, as they play at Atlanta (which I'm sure is a low WP game for them on paper) in the final week.

@BBurkeESPN

ANS COMMUNITY

Interested in publishing your own football research, analysis, or stat-based commentary? Advanced NFL Stats Community is the site to share your thoughts and ideas. There's plenty of data available to get started. All submissions will be accepted and published. Check it out!

Support Military Families

If you enjoy Advanced Football Analytics, please consider a small donation to The Fisher House, a place where families of injured servicemen can stay while visiting their hospitalized heroes.