Elections will challenge Musharraf's hold on power

ANALYSIS His foes hope to turn February vote into referendum on him

Laura King, Los Angeles Times

Published
4:00 am PST, Monday, January 7, 2008

** FILE **Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf talks to reporters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan in this Nov. 14, 2007, file photo. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has pitched Pakistan into a freefall and raised fears that Islamic extremists are turning the country into another Iraq. Pakistanis blame the deepening turmoil on Musharraf and his U.S.-backed campaign against Islamic extremism, and many believe things will only improve if he resigns as president. (AP Photo/B.K.Bangash) less

** FILE **Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf talks to reporters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan in this Nov. 14, 2007, file photo. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has pitched Pakistan into a freefall and ... more

Photo: B.K.Bangash, AP

Photo: B.K.Bangash, AP

Image
1of/3

Caption

Close

Image 1 of 3

** FILE **Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf talks to reporters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan in this Nov. 14, 2007, file photo. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has pitched Pakistan into a freefall and raised fears that Islamic extremists are turning the country into another Iraq. Pakistanis blame the deepening turmoil on Musharraf and his U.S.-backed campaign against Islamic extremism, and many believe things will only improve if he resigns as president. (AP Photo/B.K.Bangash) less

** FILE **Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf talks to reporters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan in this Nov. 14, 2007, file photo. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has pitched Pakistan into a freefall and ... more

Photo: B.K.Bangash, AP

Elections will challenge Musharraf's hold on power

1 / 3

Back to Gallery

Candles flicker, petals scatter and bouquets slowly wilt at the spot where Benazir Bhutto was cut down. Although some passers-by still break down in tears at the sight of this makeshift shrine, the pressing question for many Pakistanis as the outpouring of grief over her assassination subsides is whether President Pervez Musharraf will manage to survive this crisis, as he has so many others.

In the first days after a gunman and suicide bomber targeted the former prime minister Dec. 27, the unpopular Musharraf's grip on power seemed to hang in the balance. Riots raged for three days in Karachi, Bhutto's hometown, and across her home province of Sindh.

Much of the fury over the killing of one of the most popular politicians in the country's history was aimed directly at one man: the president. In a dozen cities, demonstrators shouted slogans such as "Musharraf, dog!" and "Musharraf, killer!"

But a scant week later, analysts and observers say the Pakistani leader appears to have weathered the initial storm, methodically taking a series of steps designed to shore up his position, at least in the short term.

He deferred parliamentary elections that his foes still hope will become a referendum against him. He placated Western allies by agreeing to allow Scotland Yard to assist in the investigation of Bhutto's killing.

He remained largely out of sight in the first days after the assassination, then resurfaced to coolly rebuff opposition calls for his resignation and insist that no one in his government bore the blame for her death.

Moreover, there were no overt signs that Pakistan's powerful military was wavering in its support for a man who was its leader until only five weeks ago, when he stepped down under pressure from critics at home and even supporters abroad. At a meeting of corps commanders last week, senior generals did not appear to be seeking to distance themselves from him - at least not yet, longtime observers of the military said.

Still, in the eyes of some people, Musharraf's authority appears frayed as never before.

"There's only so long," said analyst Shakuat Qadir, a retired brigadier, "that you can hang on by the skin of your teeth."

"In the short term, there seems to be no immediate threat to him," said Farzana Shaikh, an analyst at the Chatham House think tank in Britain. "In the longer term, I don't see him continuing in office, because he is increasingly regarded by his own allies as a liability."

Much will depend on signals from the United States, Musharraf's chief backer. The Bush administration generally has supported him through months of unrelenting turmoil, expressing only mild criticism late last year during six weeks of emergency rule, tantamount to martial law.

Putting off elections that had been set for this week until Feb. 18 gave the former general some breathing room. Bhutto's party, now led by her widower acting as regent to their teenage son, had wanted to proceed with the elections as scheduled, sensing the likelihood of a groundswell of sympathy votes.

But with the election commission dominated by his supporters, Musharraf was easily able to deflect that appeal. Both of the major opposition parties, Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party and that of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, backed down on threats to flood the street with angry protesters in response.

One important indicator of Musharraf's fortunes in coming weeks is whether signs emerge that his ruling party is seeking to engage in extensive vote-rigging, as Bhutto had charged before her death.

Before the assassination, many observers had expected the vote to yield a parliament that was not dominated by any one party. Now, for the first time since he seized power in a coup more than eight years ago, Musharraf runs the risk of facing a legislature prepared to defy him.

"If the elections are fair, there is a possibility that the Pakistan Peoples Party could get a clean sweep," said Adil Najam, a professor of international politics at Boston University.

An assertive parliament, he and others said, could move to reverse measures taken by Musharraf during last year's crackdown, particularly his firing of senior judges and the placing of restrictions on broadcast media.

Still, Musharraf has demonstrated readiness to use harshly authoritarian measures to hang on to power, as he did during emergency rule, when he jailed more than 5,000 political opponents and suspended the Constitution. Even as a civilian president, he retains the ability to fire the prime minister and dissolve parliament.

In addition, Bhutto's death left a leadership void in her party, and one of her own making. In life, reluctant to yield the limelight, she had sidelined rivals such as Aitsaz Ahsan, the country's most prominent opposition lawyer, who remains under house arrest at Musharraf's behest but wields enormous moral authority.

Instead, the party is now co-chaired by her widower, Asif Ali Zardari, a divisive figure mistrusted by many because of corruption allegations, and her 19-year-old son, Bilawal, who will not be able to run for office until he is 25. The party's likely candidate for prime minister would be Bhutto's deputy, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a soft-spoken pragmatist who many people believe might forge some kind of working relationship with Musharraf.

The president insists his rural power base has been undiminished by his confrontation this year with Pakistan's urban intelligentsia: lawyers, professors, human rights activists and journalists, who were the main target during emergency rule.

When asked at a news conference with foreign journalists last week whether he should resign because he had become so unpopular, Musharraf fired back: "If I agreed with you, I would step down. Your information is wrong. ... I don't think you have the correct feel of Pakistan."

Calls for his resignation, however, have come not only from opposition parties, but from independent observers who say the nuclear-armed country risks a descent into chaos unless Musharraf leaves the scene.

"Stability in Pakistan and its contribution to wider anti-terror efforts now require rapid transition to legitimate civilian government," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group wrote in a report last week. "This must involve the departure of Musharraf, whose continued efforts to retain power at all costs are incompatible with national reconciliation."

If the wave of public anger against Musharraf fails to subside, the army, now led by his hand-picked successor, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, might take matters into its own hands. Many in the ranks feel that the Pakistani public's traditional respect and even reverence for the armed forces has been tarnished by Musharraf's actions last year, including his removal of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and the imposition of emergency rule.

"Gen. Kayani is very conscious of the wide gulf that exists between the people and the army at the moment, and at some point, he will want to rehabilitate that relationship," said analyst Talat Masood, himself a retired general.