Iran breakthrough: Obama's non-nuclear option

The Iranian nuclear deal is a watershed moment in global politics and America’s relationship with the Middle East.

It’s also a fresh reminder of why the foreign policy pivot is a staple of second terms. It gives presidents opportunities to go big on the international stage, when their domestic agendas get bogged down in Congress.

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But for Barack Obama, it’s the latest instance of trying to navigate the two trickiest relationships of his presidency: with Republicans in Congress, and with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Neither heard directly from the president before he announced the framework for the six-month preliminary agreement to the world from the White House.

Neither responded warmly to the initial news of the deal Saturday night.

After a month of Republicans attacking, Democrats fleeing and the worst polls of his public life, Obama walked into the State Dining Room late Saturday to announce a preliminary deal for what, if finalized, would easily be among the most important things he’ll ever accomplish in office.

He made a simple announcement: success. Temporary, targeted, limited, reversible success. But success.

And, importantly, his success — even if that means it could be his disaster if things ultimately fall apart.

The uranium stockpiles are going to be neutralized. The Arak reactor is not going to be commissioned or fueled. The infrastructure is going to be dismantled. Safeguards are in place to make sure Iran can’t use negotiations as cover or a procrastination tool for moving forward with its nuclear program anyway.

Reminding people of the years of work he’d done with his international counterparts, Obama said, “today, that diplomacy opened up a new path toward a world that is more secure — a future in which we can verify that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful and that it cannot build a nuclear weapon.”

Obama acknowledged who his biggest doubters were going to be, first praising Congress for the sanctions he said made the agreement possible, and adding he intends to work with Capitol Hill. “However,” he said, “now is not the time to move forward on new sanctions — because doing so would derail this promising first step, alienate us from our allies and risk unraveling the coalition that enabled our sanctions to be enforced in the first place.”

He then turned to Israel and other suspicious regional powers like Saudi Arabia.

“As we go forward, the resolve of the United States will remain firm, as will our commitments to our friends and allies — particularly Israel and our Gulf partners, who have good reason to be skeptical about Iran’s intentions,” Obama said.

Administration officials said Saturday that the president had not spoken with Netanyahu directly before making his statement, but that the United States has been in constant contact with Israelis about the discussions.“We believe that this agreement aims to address a number of concerns that Israel has expressed over the years,” a senior Obama administration official said Saturday, adding later, “We understand and appreciate why Israel is particularly skeptical about Iran.”

But will Israel give time for the temporary deal to proceed, as administration officials implored them to Saturday night? Will Netanyahu, who issued a statement calling the agreement a “historic mistake,” take action on his own, as there have been repeated rumbles of? Or will he stick to his role of international agitator, the hawk who pushes and alarms to keep talks tilted in his direction?

“Today the world has become a much more dangerous place because the most dangerous regime in the world has made a significant step in the direction of achieving the most dangerous weapon in the world,” said Netanyahu in a statement decrying “cosmetic Iranian compromises” for big concessions on sanctions.

“Israel is not obliged to the agreement,” Netanyahu said. “I want to make clear as the prime minister of Israel, Israel will not let Iran develop a nuclear military capability.

Resistance from Netanyahu is only likely to make Obama’s path through Congress even more difficult.