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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-20 Version:14

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

303

Rep

235

Ind

0

Confidence States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

294

Rep

235

Ind

0

Tos

9

State Pick-ups

Gain

Loss

Hold

Net Gain

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

Dem

0

0

0

-3

-1

-56

26

2

303

-56

Rep

+3

+1

+56

0

0

0

22

2

179

+56

Ind

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Analysis

I hate to give Colorado to the Democrats, but I have to be in reality. This is Romney/Bobby Jindal vs. Obama/Joe Biden. The only change I made here was lowering the Democrat percentage of CA to the 50 percents. This year Salt Lake county Utah is going Republican for sure. I think Arizona will have the strength to Remain Republican this year, but most other states with significant Hispanic populations are Democrat.

...except FL, for some strange reason. You don't even consider it a toss-up or a battleground or a "maybe" of any kind, eh? What's the thinking here?
-Jeff

By:BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:29

I don't tend to do too many tossups. I might change it later, but for now I'll take a chance.

By:albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:43

Well, there's only one tossup on this map, that's probably why. I certainly wouldn't pick Colorado if I was going only going to pick a single state as a tossup though.

By:Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:50:25

Right. With Mitt losing Hispanics 10 points worse than McCain did, I'd certainly not pick a 30% Hispanic state which Obama won by 9 last time as the "tossiest" of the toss-ups. My personal choice is NC, since one can never know what the local effect of the Raleigh convention will be until it's happened. I can see a local negative or a local positive resulting from it as equally likely eventualities. I suppose FL is the same the other way. And if some are seeing Rubio as the running mate... ?
-Jeff

By:BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 01:20:14

I thought this was a funny prediction.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1421

I will change some things later.

By:dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 06:04:39

I think it is a very plausible outcome map...for something as it stands probably now or close to it with a couple of exceptions...

I might delete Iowa at this stage

By:BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:03:11

You think the link is? I think the link is very unlikely, in fact it is impossible. Are you talking about mine?