“China? There lies a sleeping giant. Let him sleep! For when he wakes he will move the world.”

Although Napoleon Bonaparte made his prophecy two centuries ago about the eventual rise of China, it turns out he intuitively understood that one day China would in fact become a major force to be reckoned with on a global basis.

Few would question the dramatic rise in China’s economic importance. Its trade and investment policies influence world markets and even the prosperity of a number of nations, especially resource-rich countries like Canada, which regard exports to China as now a top priority.

But some countries, especially in East Asia, are increasingly concerned about China’s emergence as an international powerhouse, especially its growing military strength.

In the Philippines, concern has risen to the point that the country’s foreign minister — despite Japan’s occupation of the country in the Second World War — said last month Manila would welcome a greater Japanese military role in the East Asian region to bring about more balance.

In some East Asian states, such concerns have been reinforced by the perceived hard-line positions Beijing has adopted in territorial disputes with several of its neighbours, some involving tiny uninhabited islets in the East and South China Seas.

In September, one such territorial dispute resulted in a tense showdown between China and Japan, following the Japanese government’s decision to purchase from a private Japanese owner disputed islands (Diaoyu Dao to the Chinese and Senkakus to the Japanese), which Japan has been administering under an arrangement with the United States since 1971 but which Beijing, as well as Taiwan, claim historically belong to them.

Tokyo’s “nationalization” of the islands unleashed large-scale anti-Japanese demonstrations in China, plus a boycott of Japanese products, followed by provocative naval and air moves by both countries near the disputed islands.

During an address to the Chinese Communist Party Politburo in January, new leader Xi Jinping said, “No foreign country should expect us to make a deal on our core interests and hope we will swallow the bitter pill that will damage our sovereignty, security and development interests.”

Some observers linked Xi’s remarks to China’s refusal to accept Japan’s claim to the disputed islets — thought to have potential oil and gas underwater deposits — and also saw it as a slap on the wrist to the Obama administration for emphasizing Japan’s right to administer the islets.

While there is no reason to believe either country wants to see their differences escalate to the point of military conflict, territorial disputes in the past have resulted in combat, as occurred in 1988 when a naval clash between China and Vietnam over the Spratly Islands resulted in more than 70 Vietnamese sailors being killed.

There is also concern that any significant economic downturn in China — Chinese banks reportedly had to roll over $482 billion in loans to local governments recently to avoid embarrassing defaults — could further harden Beijing’s approach in disputes with its neighbours.

One new factor that could complicate the already tense situation is the recent rise of nationalism in Japan, where voices are calling for Tokyo to be more forceful in pursuing Japanese interests.

Nationalist, right-wing elements even maintain that the history of Japan’s military expansion in East Asia before and during the Second World War has been falsified to serve the interests of the victors.

One of those who publicly shares that opinion is Japan’s newly elected prime minister, Shinzo Abe, whose Liberal Democratic Party won a sweeping victory in December’s parliamentary election.

Abe, a former prime minister, infuriated many of Japan’s neighbours during his previous term when he visited the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals. He also has publicly denied that the Japanese military forced thousands of women from East Asian countries into becoming “comfort women” (sex slaves) for Japanese troops.

As well, Abe supports revising Japan’s U.S.-imposed constitution, which commits Japan to pacifism. Like the other nationalists in his cabinet, he wants to restore Japan’s economic clout and prominent geopolitical role.

None of this will go unnoticed in Beijing.

Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator who writes on East Asian issues.

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