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The two-day meeting of the defence ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) beginning on Wednesday in Brussels promises to be a fateful event for the conflict in Syria and Middle East politics. The NATO has so far claimed a ‘hands-off’ approach toward the Syrian conflict. But that may be about to change.

The main outcome of the unscheduled visit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Turkey on Monday, her second visit in two months, is the agreement that the two countries will propose the Syrian conflict as “an agenda item to NATO”, as Turkish prime minister Ahmed Davutoglu put it. (Hurriyet). Ostensibly, the effort is to “propose NATO’s engagement concerning all aspects of the (Syrian) refugee problem, but Merkel made it clear that that is only for a start.

I suspect (hope) that the Russian intelligence services know all about what is going to be discussed at that meeting. Otherwise,they need a reworking,and to spread a bunch more bribe money around to get that type of information.The best answer (one that should have been done long ago) is to let NATO understand clearly and fully that ,”no you will not intervene in Syria”. And if they do then they have just started the first battle of WW3. There may be something to that story though. The British military going on a “training” exercise in Jordan. Has an ominous feel to it. That story that the exercise is possibly training to fight Russia in “Ukraine” has no sense to it. The terrain is totally different there. I really never thought the empire and stooges would sign their death warrant in 2016. I’ve always thought their suicide pact was for 2017-18. But I could be proved wrong there. Hopefully Russia has their nuclear weapons on a 24-7 alert .

even al jazeera is eventually just beginning to refer to rebels, armed opposition in Aleppo, immediate surroundings eg idlib areas, showing “defenders ” in camo clothing, who will continue to fight…………and there is increasing uncertainty how much ISIS presence is in these groups clearly committed to continue the rebellion, and ISIS doing another big bomb in Damascus today…………….although the rest from al jazeera is their usual propaganda stuff, Rus expansion etc, all to keep Assad in power, prevent reformation of opposition to come to effective in negotiations etc…………..

43 Turkmen and Arab fighters from Til Abyad join the ranks of YPG/SDF after 3 months of training. via anha

Russia taunts Turkey on its ‘artificial borders’

Also, on Monday in Moscow, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu disclosed that the troops of the Southern Military District, units of the airborne troops and military transport aviation have been put on full combat alert to test their readiness to respond to crisis situations.

A long-forgotten skeleton tumbled out of the Russo-Turkish cupboard when two prominent Russian lawmakers wrote to the Kremlin demanding the abrogation of the Treaty of Moscow (also known as the Treaty of Friendship and Brotherhood) signed between Bolshevik Russia and the Grand National Assembly of Turkey established by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, ninety-five years ago in March 1921 during the long sunset when the curtain had come down on Czarist and Ottoman Empires and the successor regimes were not yet born. (TASS).

The two developments may seem unrelated. But they are not. Their thud will be heard in Ankara – and as far away as Brussels where a two-day meeting of the NATO Defence Ministers is due to start on Wednesday, which promises to be a fateful event impacting the future trajectory of the Syrian conflict.

Why the Treaty of Moscow (March 1921) – or the Treaty of Kars (October 1921) that followed it? The short point is that even today these two treaties define Turkey’s borders with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (which used to be former Soviet republics) and yet, their legality remains highly debatable. Armenia and Georgia never recognized the arbitrary transfer of territories belonging to them to Turkey by the Bolsheviks.

The Bolsheviks, struggling desperately to survive the foreign invasion, made territorial concessions to Turkey. The Treaty of Moscow (like the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk with Weimar Germany) marked Russia’s exit from World War I. But, curiously, neither the Bolsheviks nor Ataturk at that time represented their states – USSR or the Turkish Republic – which were formed subsequently.

After World War II, Soviet Union demanded the return of the territories ceded to Turkey. But Winston Churchill intervened to take Turkey under the Anglo-American wings and Joseph Stalin avoided a confrontation.

The Russian lawmakers who petitioned the Kremlin underscored that today’s Russia speaks from a position of strength and should let it be known to Ankara that any “escalation of the conflict” in Syria by the latter is fraught with the danger of the Turkish state’s borders in the Trans-Caucasus unravelling. They wrote, “Only this can bring it (Turkey) down to earth and prevent it from carrying out new provocations”.

Russia’s four month long air campaign has set conditions for the encirclement of Aleppo. Pro-regime forces backed by heavy Russian airstrikes severed one of two opposition supply lines into Aleppo City from the Turkish border on February 3 when they pushed northwest of the city to reestablish a regime supply line to the besieged regime towns of Nubl and Zahra’a. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps fighters and Iranian-backed Shi’a militia forces played a prominent role in the offensive, demonstrating the lethality of combined Russian air and Iranian ground operations against the opposition in Syria. Reports of Russian Spetnaz activity at unspecified locations in Aleppo Province likely indicate the involvement of these forces in the operation. The gains position pro-regime forces to encircle opposition-held portions of Aleppo City by severing the last remaining opposition supply line that runs east from the Turkish border into the city. The regime can sever this final supply line at two locations: an outer location northwest of Aleppo City on the road to the Turkish border that passes through the towns of Huraytan and Kafr Hamra, or an inner location in the city’s eastern sector controlled by the armed opposition, such as the Hanano District. Russia’s air campaign has consistently targeted the outer location for the past three months, indicating that this is where pro-regime forces intend to complete the encirclement. This section of the supply line runs through rural terrain that Russian airpower can easily target and Iranian-backed ground forces can ultimately seize, whereas the inner location is more difficult as the terrain includes both topographic and urban barriers to rapid ground offensives. Pro-regime forces are meanwhile taking steps to buffer their forward line of troops (FLOT) to the north of Aleppo to make it possible to sustain the encirclement. Pro-regime forces will likely complete the encirclement of Aleppo in coming weeks and besiege the opposition inside the city in order to force Turkey and Saudi Arabia to concede to a negotiated settlement or ceasefire.

More alarmingly, Ankara may soon face a menacing combination of hostile forces along its southern borders: Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-affiliated YPG forces, the self-proclaimed Islamic State, and the Syrian Arab Army. The only Ankara-friendly groups near the Turkish border would be the rebel fighters in Idlib province, who would be surrounded by Latakia in the south and Aleppo in the northeast.

Under these tense circumstances, Russia accused Turkey of preparing for a military incursion into Syria. In response — having already drawn attention to Russian “crimes” in Syria — Ankara firmly stated that it had the right to take necessary measures for its national security. This rhetorical exchange raised eyebrows about prospects of a possible Turkish incursion into Syria. Yet while a limited Turkish intervention in Syria might seem likely, Russian presence in Syria remains a highly complicating and dissuasive factor.

Primary Drawback: The Russian Factor

The Russian military deployment presents the most significant challenge to a Turkish incursion into Syria. Any Turkish ground incursion would require close air support from Turkish army aviation attack helicopters and air interdiction operations flown by the Turkish air force. Though air superiority would not be a prerequisite for operating Turkish rotary and fixed wing assets in Syrian territory, the Turkish air force would have to deny air superiority to the Russian air force, at the very least.

The operational necessity of denying Russian air superiority could lead to direct Turkish–Russian air-to-air clashes. Problematically, the Russian air force detachment in Syria is now much stronger than it was in November 2015, when a Russian Su-24 was downed by the Turkish air force for violating Turkish airspace. The Kremlin responded to that Turkish move with further escalation: Russia deployed S-400 long-range air and missile defense systems, additional Su-34 strike fighters, and extremely capable Su-35S air superiority fighters. Currently, over 20 air superiority “Flankers”(SU-27SM3, Su-30SM, and Su-35S) and air-to-air capable Su-34 Fullbacks pose a deterrent threat to any Turkish operations within Syrian airspace. Furthermore, the Russian air wing in Syria now operates under a robust, layered air defense umbrella provided by deployed S-400s, SA-17s, and SA-22s coupled with advanced electronic warfare capabilities, such as the recently spotted Krasukha-4 that could blind Turkish command and control systems and aircraft.

In the absence of air superiority, Turkish maneuver units would face significant challenges in an extremely hostile environment that could result in high casualties. If Turkey opts to reduce risk for its ground forces by denying Russian air superiority, the situation could escalate dangerously. The Turkish air force’s 151st Squadron in Merzifon is assigned to the suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) duties with its AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARM) that could be effective against some Russian air defenses and ground-based electronic warfare assets. Yet the Russian anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) bubble in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean penetrates several hundred kilometers into Turkish territory, holding all Turkish combat air patrols (CAPs) at risk. Further, open-source intelligence suggests a significant shift in the payload configurations of Russian aircraft in Syria. Russian strike packages are now flying with more escort aircraft and an increased number of air-to-air missiles. In a confrontation, beyond visual range (BVR) combat with AIM-120C and AA-10 or AA-12 missiles would be the determining factor, though Russian air superiority fighters could certainly seek to exploit their kinematic advantages by seeking within visual range (WVR) combat.

Even more importantly, the risk of a Turkish–Russian escalation inevitably brings NATO into the picture. If Ankara acts unilaterally by opening an out-of-area front in Syria, this likely would not be subject to the Article V umbrella, unless Russia then attacked Turkish territory.

only “problem “will be the western UN Kerry etc clamour of “besieging Aleppo and starving civilians ” although many might have left leaving only those “moderate rebels” armed to the teeth who publicly say they will never cease from continuing their rebellion.

clarity from Turkey????
“Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu pledged to return a “historical debt” to Turkey’s “Aleppo brothers” who helped defend the country in the early 20th century, just days after Russia warned of Ankara’s intentions to invade Syria as the rebels there falter.
“We will return our historic debt. At one time, our brothers from Aleppo defended our cities of Sanliurfa, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras, now we will defend the heroic Aleppo. All of Turkey stands behind its defenders,” Davutoglu said at the meeting of the Party of Justice and Development parliamentary faction, which he heads.”https://www.rt.com/news/331968-turkey-syria-intervention-aleppo/

Today, Turkish Foreign Ministry called on the carpet of the American ambassador in connection with the statement of the official representative of the US State Department not to recognize the party of Syrian Kurds terrorist, so the political differences between Washington and Ankara are becoming more acute.
Yesterday answering the question of who support the US Kurds and Ankara, in a situation where Turkey believes Kurdish terrorist formation, State Department spokesman John Kirby said: – “We do not believe the Kurdish party” Democratic alliance “as a terrorist organization, but recognize the view of Turkey, which considers it as such. Even best friends do not agree with each other all over. The Kurds are effective fighters with the “Islamic state” in Syria. And we will provide them support “,”
On the question of who is more effective in the fight against LIH, Kurds or Turkey, Kirby, in the best traditions of the State Department said that anyone who fights with LIH, in its own way is useful.
These words outraged minister of foreign Affairs of Turkey. According to Mevlut Cavusoglu, Washington must choose between his country and the Syrian Kurdish party that Ankara calls militant wing of the Kurdistan Workers party. a few days ago, such a statement appeared and President Erdogan, dissatisfied arrival envoy Obama in the Syrian city of Cobán, controlled by Kurds.”http://www.anna-news.info/node/52889

Yet, there’s one gaping omission. What are the casualties on our side?

I have to remind myself of the real stories we’ll never know about the killed and maimed soldiers and the effects on their families and friends. I suppose being martyrs for a good cause helps but oh the pain of it all.

I also have to remind myself who is profiting from these gloriously insane wars.

You do your part well but other parts are bloody hell which no story can ever tell.

” and the bloody moments of the battles of last days
under the square of Mars and Sun
do save for the keepers of the fathers
(in Pluto’s sign)
the paradox coming
of sovereign life
in the future of our
aeon ”

“According to the Kommersant, the delegation will arrive in Iraq with a two-day visit on Wednesday. Rogozin will hold a meeting of the intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation, the paper added.

During his visit, the Russian official will meet with the chairman of the commission, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim Jaafari, and President Fuad Masum, the paper reported. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as well as a number of other deputy ministers are expected to accompany Rogozin as part of the Russian delegation, according to the paper.

Bilateral cooperation in the field of energy and in the military-technical sphere is expected to be the main topic of the talks. Apart from government officials, the delegation will include some 90 Russian businessmen, the paper added.”

Eric Draitser of http://StopImperialism.org chats with George Galloway (Feb. 4, 2016) about Syria, who’s responsible, and where it’s going. Draitser discusses the role of regional proxies of the US-NATO, as well as the role of the corporate media in keeping people ignorant of the facts. He also notes the rising tide of fascism in Europe, and how the scapegoating of refugees must be confronted.

150’000 Saudi soldiers equipped with 5th generation Jihadi flags and suicide belts are on their way. It is rumored that the miles long Caravan is led by several members of the KarDaeshian clan. If ‘Call Me Caitlyn’ is with them, i am still investigating.

The leader of the underground, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, previously served as deputy Revolutionary Council under Saddam Hussein. As you know many of the officers of the army defeated the Americans in Iraq and then formed the backbone Daishev. It is hardly to be doubted that he has a connection with the management of LIH. He sent a former secret service of the deposed Iraqi regime in Syria.

Saudis repeatedly accused that they finance terrorists, so there is great doubt that the so-called “Islamic coalition” will fight against militants, as claimed.

The main weapon used by the monarchy of Saudi peninsula is the substitution of Islam, it is like an infection infects the minds of the Salafi and Wahhabi heresy. And then a deft manipulator is simply to point to where you want to fanatics and they will destroy, destroy and kill.

Victory over the sectarians men raised on Wahhabi dogma Salafi and is important for the conservation of Islam, such as we know it, the world of religion. Therefore, in Syria Shia marja Kazem Al-Khairy urges its supporters and followers, including the Sadrists, to embark on the fight against terrorism with weapons in their hands and to support Bashar al-Assad. However, there are reports that Shiite radical leader Muqtada al-Sad said the refusal to take part in the fighting on the side of the Syrian government forces.

It does not remain aloof and Turkey. Former military from Damascus, a native of Iraq, Hamid Dleymi began recruiting and training volunteers, so-called “Liberation Army of Mosul,” as you know there has not been without the approval of the Turkish government. Command of the army will be enjoying the favor and support of the Turkish government Asil Al-Nudzheyfi. According to the intelligence of these volunteers train military personnel in Turkey and the USA.

Thus the emerging invasion of Syria acquires meat. The outbreak of hostilities, “the Islamic Coalition” in fact carry out an act of aggression and violation of the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic, because of the resolutions of the Syrian government, and not a speech.”http://www.anna-news.info/node/52882

bit of a garbled google translate

but phrase seems important , especially as translated headline is Saudi prepares a blitzkreig army for Syria….
“A huge army gathered in Saudi Arabia as part of “Islamic Coalition,” which she and finances, causes more worry for the Government of Syria. Special services ATS reported that basistskoe underground in Iraq, began collecting armed group dervish order, then to use it as part of the Saudi coalition.’

needs to be translated correctly from original link if anyone volunteers?

The Minister of foreign Bahrain Minister also denied reports in the media referring to the kingdom’s ambassador to London about the alleged plans of Manama send ground troops to conduct operations in Syria. “The statement, attributed to our Ambassador in London, do not correspond to reality our ambassador did not say this, that Bahrain will send or ready to send ground or ground troops to Syria or elsewhere to fight terrorism. ”
Russia and Bahrain want to see Syria united, stable and secular country, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov:” both Russia and Bahrain want to see Syria stable country, which strengthened the foundations of the secular state, the country, which provides its territorial integrity and within the framework which guarantees the rights of all without exception of its citizens. ”
and “Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said that his country will withdraw the six planes that struck at targets in Iraq and Syria. Canada plans to stop the bombing of the Islamic State of objects on 22 February but will leave two surveillance aircraft in the region, as well as refueling tankers.
However, Canada will increase the number of soldiers who take part in the preparation of Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, to about 200 people. . Trudeau said that Canada’s experience in Afghanistan has shown that the best way to achieve long-term stability – help local people in their fight “.

Reported killed, again, in 2015, by Iraqi Shia militia, al-Douri had reportedly been receiving blood transfusions due to lukemia every six months. In 1999 — 16 years ago — he travelled to Austria to receive medical treatment and left the country despite Austrian opposition demands for his arrest on war crimes charges.

Read the wiki, if you care.

I call them ‘bury you with disinformation’ trolls. My guess is they test the memories of Sakerites to see if various new disinformation plotlines will work on dedicated observers of geopolitical affairs. There’s quite a few of them at this site.

Syrian authorities allocated 1 hectare for a Russian school in Damascus. Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society is in charge of the project

The King of Bahrain met with Putin in Sochi today. An unusually warm meeting full of symbolic gestures. The King called Putin “My brother”

Multiple sources report that high-ranking Russian military advisors arrived in Aleppo to coordinate recapture of the city with the Syrians

Russian Ambassador to Syria confirms that some of Russian weapons (probably most) Damascus gets for free

Syrian Kurds are opening their office in Moscow on Feb 10. According to sources this PYD representation will serve as a diplomatic mission

“Syria Talks: Fear and Loathing in Geneva”
Yuri Barmin Analyst on Russia and its Middle East policy, MPhil International Relations, University of Cambridge, RIAC expert

After a week of confusion and failed attempts to bring warring sides to the table, Syria peace talks that had begun in Geneva on January 25 2016 were suspended till late February on Thursday. This may be a much-needed break that may help prevent the wider negotiating process from being derailed. In other words the battle is lost but the war is not over.

While the Syrian government arrived in Geneva in time for talks and held several meetings with Steffan De Mistura, the Higher Negotiating Committee (HNC), a Saudi-backed opposition bloc, held its first informal meeting with UN negotiators on February 1. Notably, the opposition demanded that airstrikes be halted and political prisoners be released for the negotiations to go further. These demands, however, contradicted what Russia and the United States promised on January 15 when Secretary of State Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov announced talks in Geneva with no preconditions.

In other major developments, the Syrian Army backed by Hezbollah as well as IRGC forces and supported by Russian airstrikes managed to end a three-year siege of Nubul and Zahraa, two Shia towns north of Aleppo on February 3. This means that the Syrian forces have cut rebels’ lifeline to Turkey, their northern supply route. The looming success of the Aleppo operation largely explains why the Russia-Turkey crisis intensified in late January. What cutting Aleppo off from Turkey essentially means is that without a constant supply of reinforcement from the north the rebel movement in the area is likely to choke very soon.

The temporary pause in the Geneva talks gives the Syrian Army and its backer three weeks to further weaken rebels in Aleppo, which is now going to be easier to achieve. Syria and Russia have essentially bought themselves time to try and make rebels more desperate, hence pressure them into being more cooperative once the talks resume. At least now the Aleppo blockade is a lever that can be used against the HNC in Geneva.

MOSCOW, February 10. /TASS/. The statements of the Turkish ambassador to the UN on Moscow’s refusal to conduct dialogue with Ankara speak of the desire to decline all responsibility for the downed Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.

“We consider this to be nothing else but a propaganda move,” she said. “We believe that these steps are designed to decline all responsibility for the destruction of the Russian jet and the murder of the crew commander.”

According to Zakharova, “one should not think that Ankara’s act will remain unanswered.” “The policy pursued by the Turkish authorities, namely, categorical refusal to admit and accept their guilt for the destruction of the Russian aircraft and deaths of military servicemen, tenacious unwillingness to punish the persons implicated in this crime, constant propaganda with regard to Russia’s activities in Syria, continued use of double standards in combating international terrorism – all this creates no opportunities for resuming the full-fledged dialogue with Turkey in the foreseeable future,” the diplomat said.

Europeans learnt the lessons of Khan..
Numbers always useful to keep in mind when talking about imperialism and colonialism… Europeans have killed hundreds of millions and might exceed 1 billion.. Going by the numbers, killing a million Syrians to eradicate the terrorists is worth the cost.. Even the Syrians think so.. Heck US killed more than 2 mil Iraqi’s with sanctions and another 2 mil occupying the country, Why are Europeans objecting to this? Europe develops a conscience because they don’t get to kill enough people?https://twitter.com/VNGiapaganda/status/697471552854614016

Russia’s wet dream is for a Turkish ground invasion.. Payback for the last 100 years is a dish waiting in the freezer.. Russia won’t accept any cease-fire be4 closing borders w/ Turkley and the Frenchy FM drops his rifle and runs off to Belize…

Who don’t want to see a ground invasion? Except for the US who is already afraid any such things would blow up their stock markets.

Cant see how erdog and wahabis can sit this out,they made the table and cooked the evil brew now if they walk away from the party they have to give up power.Erdog will be laughed at or skinned alive by the ruling elites and the same goes for wahabis they will be overtaken within by other Princes.So Turkey forces will enter north without aircover with massive land troops while the wahabis will attack from Dier zor with their black water mercenaries.Evil Putin and R+6 would have prepared for this.With superior aircover,artillery,tanks and tactics and without NATO or US backing both uninvited armies will be surrounded and suffer humiliating defeat.Wont be the case for the leaders in Ankara and Riyadh they will be busy with revolts.We are watching as hubris goes to cemeteries of history.

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