Long distance low and medium
frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation
along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths
is poor.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on February 17-20. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are possible on February 21-22 when a stream from CH360 is likely to
influence the geomagnetic field.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region
Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before
midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots.
SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region
map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis,
and
partly on data from some of these solar data sources.
All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are
always welcome.