How to make 2017 count

Politics, a strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles – Ambrose Bierce

All that needed to be said about the disappointments and achievements of year 2016 have been said. The government of President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged that it had substantially under-performed, blaming factors which predated it, as well as new, unforeseen developments that adversely affected the economy and national security. It celebrated substantial progress in the fight against Boko Haram, and even a trickling of success in the return of the Chibok girls as major successes. The campaign against corruption had been flagged, but was being challenged by cynicism over its popularity in circles around the President as well as frustrating limitations in the judiciary and the legislature. Governance below the federal level had avoided much national scrutiny, but citizens in states had lived with daily excuses from governors echoing the national lamentations over collapsed revenues. Many citizens were bewildered by state governments that did not pay salaries and pensions, but found the means to undertake eye-catching projects. Governors had taken refuge behind the massive profile and clout of the Buhari federal administration to avoid being accountable. Weak political opposition had created the context for disturbing complacency and massive intra-party disputes. The year 2017 will present an opportunity to leaders and the nation to demonstrate that there is political will and faith behind a nation facing one of its biggest challenges. If that opportunity will not be lost, some of these need to be accorded priority.

Rediscover the mission of leadership

Widespread disenchantment with poor governance and weak political will combined with the appearance of a credible alternative that could lead to national rebirth to produce the Buhari administration. The majority of Nigerians voted for a leadership that was going to fight and defeat insurgents, stop corruption, give jobs to young people and create an economy that did not count its successes in the number of billionaires it created. Most Nigerians believed Buhari will lead the nation to recover its strengths and punish those who bled its unity and resources. His administration was going to be different, the expression of a popular demand behind the need to do things differently. Its worst enemies feared that it will be a tough administration in the character of the leader, and certainly did not envisage that it will be just another administration waiting for elections to seek another mandate. President Buhari and the APC need to rediscover their mission, even if the real challenges of governance have made the re-invention of that messianic aura largely problematic. In plain terms, Buhari cannot be just another President.

Create a sense of urgency

If there has been a consistent negative trait associated with the Buhari administration, it must be that it routinely takes too long to do too little, or nothing at all. Incredible lethargy and pronounced tardiness in decision-making have long silenced excuses that the need to be meticulous and avoid past mistakes justify delays. In practical terms, the APC has only about a year left to make a telling difference in the quality of leadership which it offers Nigerians. Outside the military and one or two of its agencies, all the basic institutions of state operate without zeal or speed, marking time under an administration that cannot afford to lose a day seemingly sitting on its hands. The nation’s challenges demand a pervasive sense of emergency in the manner they are handled. Leaders cannot afford convenience and luxury of delays, because citizens will believe that they either have no solutions, or do not care enough to find solutions.

Change tactics

At this stage in the life of the administration, it should be seriously considering options in its tactics in achieving key goals. Where the administration lacks financial resources to tackle problems, it should tap the tremendous intellectual and other human resources available to it to find solutions to many social problems. It should re-visit the value of involving greater say for high quality private sector input into the management of the economy. The nation’s military cannot fight and win victories against all internal security challenges. Many of these problems require only minimal involvement of military and other security assets to contain, but their resolution requires the deployment of strong political will and imaginative utilisation of political options. Fighting corruption requires creating strong linkages with other arms of government, as legislators and the judiciary will support or resist the fight against corruption largely on the degree to which they feel they are not primarily set up as its targets. A long-term perspective needs to be employed in this fight against a deeply-entrenched scourge, and public support has to be vigorously cultivated to survive the appearance that this is a partisan issue.

Re-prioritise

Massive revenue shortfalls and limited foreign investment should compel a review of priorities and some difficult choices. There are evident positive consequences of the recession which has forced restrictions on imports of particularly food items. These are in markedly improved outputs by mostly small scale farmers that can be sustained with some encouragement through enlightened policies and incentives to producers. The rising cost of living is felt more by the elite and urban populations, and there may be some advantages in focusing more on the rural poor who, in any case, is the backbone of the APC administration. Social intervention policies may deliver on election promises, but poor design and faulty implementation as well as their potential for deepening partisan divides and political alienation and high costs of administration could seriously detract from their impact. Between now and the middle of next year, the political benefits of N-Power and cash handouts may be difficult to quantify and translate into political capital. The billions spent on them on the other hand could be re-assigned towards areas with greater multiplier effects and social support. Funding of government activities is still enslaved to a process that demands that every agency must be funded, even if all it does is to pay salaries. Within this year, the government can undertake a comprehensive review of its size, commitments and resources, not in the manner of the so-called Oronsaye report that suggests that size can be reduced without respect for laws or social consequences, but in a manner that outlines a short and long-term restructuring that will produce an affordable government at the centre, and state governments that do not exist only to pay salaries. Rehabilitation and expansion of critical infrastructure and adoption of policies that allow private sector access to managing roads, airports and seaports should be given priorities.

Address quality of management

The nation will forgive President Buhari for making wrong choices in appointment of ministers and key aides, but it will not tolerate a continuation of a team that has created near-universal consensus as performing well below one that should actualise his vision. It cannot be the easiest of jobs working under the imposing shadow of President Buhari, with little resources and institutions and processes of governance and bureaucracies that appear never to have known what happened in 2015, but a few have stood out, while many have only created an image of poor decision-making and a reluctance to revisit mistakes around the President. Nothing much will change in terms of rediscovery of the administration’s mission, creating a stronger momentum for greater impact, taking initiatives, setting new goals and achieving them or inspiring a lethargic bureaucracy to respond to the demands of improved service delivery under the current management team of the President. The quality of people involved in running state administrations is quite possibly one of the worst in the nation’s history. There are very few change agents and champions in administrations that came to power promising change.

Be political

This time next year, the APC will have a stronger opposition, much of it made up of people who laboured with President Buhari to create the APC. His party will require very strong muscles to limit the damage that will become evident as powerful and ambitious party men do what was done to the PDP in 2013 and 2014. President Buhari will be put under tremendous pressure to make his plans for 2019 known, and this will cause further turbulence within his party, whatever he decides. This is the time to comprehensively survey the terrain and begin to build, or rebuild platforms, alliances and new territories in hitherto hostile areas. The intimate linkages between partisan politics and national security will be made prominent as politicians calculate what their assets are in the fight for control of the nation in 2019. The President could slow down or head-off a crisis involving massive depletions of powerful allies by engineering fresh concessions that gives them attractive incentives to stay close. He could also commence a delicate process of grooming and empowering a potential successor for the 2019 elections, in the event that he decides not to run.