Thursday, November 19, 2009

US climate experts predict mild weather continuing through December

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its climate outlook for December today, and it shows that above normal temperatures are expected to continue through December over the the northern Plains (and southern Prairies) This outlook is very similar to CPC's November outlook which also called for above normal temperatures over the central continent. The mild weather outlook is mainly due to a strengthening El Nino which has now reached a moderate stage in the Pacific. This tends to bring warmer than normal conditions during the winter months over western Canada into the mid section of the continent. As a result, CPC is indicating better than even odds that the winter of 2009-10 will be above normal over our area. Precipitation is likely to remain below normal over us as well, as the North America storm track tends to take a "split flow" pattern during El Nino episodes. This split flow pattern brings a southern track of storms though the southern US (mainly California into the Gulf states) while a northern storm track affects BC into the northern prairies. This setup usually translates to drier and warmer than normal conditions over the southern Prairies between the two main storm tracks.

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