Top End shale gas development would blow Australia's carbon budget, TAI says

By Peter Hannam

Developing the Northern Territory's onshore shale oil and gas resources could release the equivalent of 34 billion tonnes of carbon emissions, equal to 60 times Australia's current annual carbon pollution, according to The Australia Institute.

The estimate is made in the institute's submission on the draft final report of a scientific inquiry into the risks of hydraulic fracturing – or fracking – in the territory scheduled for completion next month.

Gas leaks are inevitable - and likely huge - from the coal seam gas industry, a submission by The Australia Institute says.

Photo: Glenn Hunt

The submission challenged the inquiry's use of a single 365 petajoule per year shale gas field producing the equivalent of 5 per cent of Australia's national emission to conclude the industry would have only a "low" consequence and to be of "acceptable" risk.

"Even a 5 per cent increase in Australia's emissions from a single gas field is a large and unacceptable increase," the submission said. "It is completely inconsistent with Australia's carbon budget and our commitments under the Paris agreement."

AGL bore the brunt of protests when it tried to develop a CSG field near Gloucester, with more than 100 weeks of protests outside its Sydney headquarters

Photo: Peter Rae

Advertisement

Having identified the resource to total 257,276 petajoules, the inquiry should have based its assessment on the cumulative impact of multiple oil gas fields that may be developed, the TAI said.

Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, particularly over shorter periods, such as 20 years, when its warming impact is about 87 times greater.

Adding fugitive methane emissions through leaks or seepage through the earth's crust – estimated to be between 2-17 per cent in the US shale fields – suggests a much bigger impact.

Coal seam gas field flaring near Chinchilla in Queensland.

Photo: Glenn Hunt

"This is equivalent to 130 large coal power plants operating for up to 40 years," according to the submission, compiled in part by Tim Forcey and Dimitri Lafluer, formerly with BHP and Shell, respectively.

The NT's Labor government has said it will consider whether or not to lift a moratorium on fracking after it receives the inquiry's final report.

The inquiry's panel, led by Justice Rachel Pepper, found that with "robust and rigorously enforced safeguards", the risk of any harm from the shale industry could "be minimised to an acceptable level, in some instances, it can be avoided altogether", according to the draft final report.

The panel did, however, note "there is very little information available worldwide on the performance of abandoned onshore shale gas wells. The assessment of post-abandonment performance is an aspect that requires greater attention by both the regulator and industry."

"Approving Queensland CSG was incredibly irresponsible," Mr Ogge said. "However, the Territory resource identified by the inquiry is far bigger then CSG so the risk is even greater.

"It will also include shale oil extraction, which is a whole other level of risk and impact."

TAI's submission argues the inquiry was at odds with its own terms of reference by omitting shale oil from its assessment even though the US government had estimated the territory to have 4.7 billion barrels – much of which would be extracted along with the gas.

"Geoscience Australia believes shale oil could be the 'key driver' of unconventional fracking in the Beetaloo and Georgina basins in the Northern Territory," the submission noted.

Loading

The NT itself has an interest in curbing climate climate given the vulnerability of tropical regions.

"For example, in Darwin the number of days over 35 degrees is expected to increase from 11 per year currently to 308 by 2070 without global action to reduce emissions," Mr Ogge said, adding that heatwaves have killed more Australians than any other extreme weather events.