China Expects Tourism to Grow Rapidly

By CHRIS BUCKLEY

Published: October 14, 2003

BEIJING, Oct. 13—
The tourism industry in China is set for rapid growth in the coming years, despite lingering fallout from the SARS epidemic earlier this year, according to a report released here Monday.

The report, issued by the World Travel and Tourism Council, a private organization that represents hotel and travel companies, predicts the number of tourists and business travelers visiting China will grow 22 percent a year beginning next year through 2013, and the flow of Chinese tourists and travelers going abroad will probably grow even faster.

Council representatives and travel industry executives warned, however, that China must overhaul its tourism administration and accept more foreign involvement if it is to manage the expansion.

''China has the potential to become one of the world's greatest tourism economies, but the scope of effort needed is staggering,'' said Jean-Claude Baumgarten, president of the council.

The report was issued a few days after the end of China's weeklong National Day holiday, which saw a resurgence in domestic Chinese tourism after the SARS epidemic forced the cancellation of travel during the May Day holiday and halted most long-distance travel.

''It was the most dramatic shutdown of tourism we've ever seen anywhere in the world in recent history,'' Richard Miller, the vice president for research and economics at the council, said of SARS.

The council report, which Mr. Miller wrote, estimated SARS reduced growth by the tourism and travel sector by 25 percent, costing it $7.6 billion and 28 million jobs.

Industry analysts said, however, China's domestic tourism and business travel sectors revived faster than many had predicted.

''Now we're at above where it was before,'' David Yates, president of 4oceans, a British company that provides booking for Chinese hotels and travel agents, said in a telephone interview. ''There's incredible pent-up demand.''

He also noted that non-Chinese business travelers began returning to the country soon after the government ended travel restrictions in June. Tourists are returning now, too, though more warily and in fewer numbers than before.

In July, the last month with official figures available, visits by non-Chinese nationals were down by a quarter compared with July 2002; visits from the United States were down 37 percent.

Many industry analysts expect fallout from SARS will be more than canceled out by the sharp growth in the number of Chinese traveling abroad for pleasure or business.

''Over the last few years, outbound spending by Chinese tourists has exploded,'' Mr. Miller said.

''There are very few countries growing faster than China.''

In recent years the Chinese government has eased restrictions on Chinese tourists traveling to selected countries, including Thailand, Australia and Germany. Last year, Chinese made nearly 16 million trips abroad, including visits to Hong Kong and Macao, according to the council -- an increase of 4 million from the previous year.

Mr. Miller said that he expected similar growth over the next decade, pushing China into the top ranks of international travelers.

The report by the council argues that to manage and sustain its emergence as a tourism superpower, China must radically overhaul its tourism administration and open the sector to more private involvement in decision making.

''China's tourism structure needs to adapt to the needs of the market,'' Mr. Baumgarten said.

The recommendations he cited included opening China's national tourist administration to private-sector participants, raising its political status, and investing more money in infrastructure and training for tourism.

He also said China should modify its current system of squeezing nearly everyone's vacations into three weeklong public holidays, which, he said, ''puts an unmanageable strain on existing tourism resources.''

Most Chinese have no vacation besides those holidays.

Mr. Yates of 4oceans said that the tourism industry in China should become more flexible and attuned to the needs of individual travelers.

''China has traditionally been dominated by package tours, but the fastest-growing market is for frequent individual travelers,'' he said, using the industry term for people traveling on their own.

For the time being, however, China's travel officials will be more concerned about preventing a renewed spread of SARS with disastrous consequences for the tourist industry. Recently, China has reintroduced reporting requirements and disinfected buses and taxis amid fears that the disease may reappear during the winter.

Photo: A rickshaw sculpture on Wangfujing Street, a Beijing shopping district, is popular for taking pictures. (Photo by Agence France-Presse/Getty Images)