Tag: fight predictions

When predicting a rematch in MMA – or, frankly, any sport – it’s only logical to look at the previous encounter and attempt to discern what advantages a certain participant had, whether their opponent is capable of adjusting and overcoming them, and whether the rematch will follow the overall narrative of the previous encounter. Our knowledge, or anticipated knowledge, of these factors determines how much we anticipate a rematch. For instance, no one really cared about the third fight between Tito Ortiz and Ken Shamrock – we all knew how lopsided that fight would be. Conversely, Frankie Edgar’s third match against Gray Maynard was appealing because there was a strong narrative coming out of their second fight, a sense of uncertainty as to which fighter would make the necessary adjustments to overcome the other.

The rematch between Edgar and Ben Henderson falls into the latter category because it possesses that same degree of uncertainty. We don’t know what will happen in this fight, other than it promises to be one of the best fights of the year. It’s a rematch between the two best fighters in the strongest division in MMA, after a fight that each fighter thought he won. Both will be at the top of their game, attempting to ensure that this match will leave no doubt who is the better man.

(Guys, seriously, you gotta stop this or I’m gonna have a harder time hiding this erection than Jean-Claude Van Damme.)

By George Shunick

This weekend, the MGM Grand Garden Arena will host the most highly anticipated fight this year when middleweight champion Anderson Silva faces off against, err, “middleweight champion”Chael P. Sonnen. As we all know, Sonnen was the man who almost took Silva’s title at UFC 117, dismantling the champion through punishing ground and pound and even rocking MMA’s greatest striker on the feet before succumbing to a triangle choke after winning the previous 23 minutes of the fight. Following the fight, it was revealed Silva fought with a badly injured rib and Sonnen had a testosterone to epitestosterone ratio of 16.9 to 1. Regardless, due to Sonnen’s trash talk and how close their last fight was, this fight has the potential to be one of the best fights of the summer.

However, will this be the “biggest rematch in the history of the business,” as Sonnen claims? Maybe, but I doubt it. You could argue Lesnar-Mir II is more likely to be successful financially, or that Liddell-Ortiz II or Liddell-Couture II/III were more culturally significant for a burgeoning sport, but virtually all lacked such a compelling narrative or contained the level of talent featured here. Moreover, in hindsight, they were rather one-sided matchups. Edgar-Maynard II and III were probably of a higher caliber that Silva-Sonnen II will be, simply by virtue of being two of the greatest fights in the history of the sport, but lacked the hype and context that this matchup possesses.

This matchup has the potential to rank alongside Fedor-Nogueira III, which saw the two greatest heavyweights in MMA history – and the two top-ranked heavyweights at that time – fight for the Pride heavyweight title; both fights possess a historic air about them, feature top level talent, and take place within the narrative framework of a rivalry. But I still think the gold standard for a rematch will remain Jackson-Silva II, which had every ingredient you could wish for in a rematch turned up to 11. It had two of the greatest fighters in MMA history, in one of the greatest rivalries in MMA history, in one of the greatest fights in MMA history, culminating in one of the greatest knockouts in MMA history. Suffice it to say, Sonnen-Silva II has a lot to accomplish to validate Sonnen’s comments.

The time for talk is up. For over a year now, we’ve watched as Jon Jones and Rashad Evans’ relationship has deteriorated from training partners willing to fake injury to avoid fighting one another, to bitter enemies just waiting for the chance to beat the other into a living death. Is all the personal heat real? Can these two bury the hatchet after the fight? We’ll find out soon enough, but either way, this has all the makings of a can’t miss war that will not soon be forgotten. All signs point to a decisive victory for “Bones” in ATL tomorrow night, but as we all know, anything can happen in a fight. So join me as I break down all the main card fights taking place at UFC 145 and give you my street-certified predictions.

Jon Jones (15-1, 9-1 UFC) vs. Rashad Evans (17-1-1, 12-1-1 UFC)

At only 24 years old, Jones has already been in more title fights(3) than the 32 year-old Evans(2). So clearly, Jones should not be intimidated, for he is battle-tested and has proven himself worthy of carrying that UFC Light Heavyweight belt. And not only has Jones taken out three former UFC champions in his last three fights, he has done so in devastating fashion. In his last fight, Jones dropped Lyoto Machida (a.k.a the man who made Rashad do the cross-eyed stanky leg) face down on the mat after choking him unconscious. That type of win has to make Jones feel good going into his fight with Rashad.

While Jones comes into Saturday night riding a stratospheric surge of momentum, Rashad enters this fight following an unceremonious, workmanlike decision victory over Phil Davis at UFC on Fox in January. However, there are many positives to take away from that victory, the first of which being the decisive, dominant manner in which Rashad managed to defeat a very talented prospect in Davis. “Suga” overcame a significant reach disadvantage (like he will face with Jones) to close the gap and effectively control Davis with his superior wrestling and ground game. Second, Rashad finally had the chance to prove that he could go the full five rounds, and imposed his will on “Mr. Wonderful” from the start of round 1 to the end of the fifth. Most of the Potato Nation seems to agree that his fight with Jones will likely be a knock down, drag out war that tests the will, strength, and cardiac endurance of both men, so it’s good to know that Rashad will be able to keep up with Jones if the fight makes it into the championship rounds. Finally, Rashad demonstrated that once he gets his opponent down on the mat, he can do some serious damage. So even if Rashad may not be able to stand and trade with Jones, he at least knows that if he can get Jones down, his chances of grinding out a victory significantly increase.

Join us after the jump for more on Jones/Evans, as well as a break down of all of the main card’s match-ups.