Unlike the North Atlantic, the North West Pacific Ocean has a tropical cyclones risk in any month of the year. This is largely caused by the much longer distance from east to west during which the ocean surface waters of the equatorial current are heated by the tropical sunshine. The lowest probability of occurrence is in February, our chosen month for a visit before we sail on to Japan in early March.
Far to the east, south of Guam, a tropical disturbance has recently drifted its way from near the equator to latitude 8-degrees north. One of the weather models is presently predicting it will intensify and arrive just north of Yap at 10pm on Saturday. (Yap is where the target marker showing our position is located on the map). The model predicts wind speeds of 60 knots, just short of hurricane force-12, but force-11 is still called a violent storm. The waves are forecast to be 8+ metres in the purple zone on the picture. The plot thickens, though. Another model roughly correlates but only shows wind speeds of 40-knots, still gale force. There is a local weather station at the international airport here on Yap; they kindly discussed the situation with the forecasters at Guam last night and we are informed they forecast Yap to have a maximum of 25-knot winds from the Northeast.
This serves to highlight the uncertainty sometimes faced by us cruisers. If 60-knots of wind is to blow, then we will haul anchor earlier and head out to sea, 150 miles south of here. After the “thing” has passed, we will return. If only 25-knots we could remain here. If 40-knots we will move our anchorage to a more sheltered spot. Decisions, decisions!
Let the waiting game commence. Further scrutiny of forecasts will take place today, and another chat with the local weather station. We will make our decision early on Friday morning. Maybe we shall be off to sea on the morrow, to heave-to some distance south of Yap. La Nina seems to be creating some weird weather and the models have not been particularly accurate of late, but we shall play safe.

Sue is an artist, plays the flute and guitar. Andy enjoys technical challenges and hoped to learn to speak more Spanish. Unsuccessfully:-( Maybe this year?

Extra:

During 2013 and 2014 we sailed across the Pacific to New Zealand and then Australia. 2015-16 brought us north into Asia. The past few years cruising has enabled us to visit many countries, meet lots of interesting people and to understand the world a little better.

All too soon, we were lets loose on Delhi. Thank goodness Lydie and Abdulla had given an insight to being in India. India is an assault on the senses, smelly, loud, physical and above all colourful... what an amazing place.

Our first taste of India, we enjoyed 5 days in Chennai with our friends Lydie and Abdulla. A great way to ease into the way things run in India. Lovely company, gorgeos food, great temples amazingly busy roads and markets. Thnk goodnes Abdulla was driving !

We spent 21 eventful days in a small van driving to experience the size of Austalia. We saw some wonerful sights and met many intersesting people. After 7,777 km we felt we had given it a good go. So here are a few images taken along the way.

Having found our new boat we are in the throws of preparing to set off. The boat is delayed on re-decking but we are busy getting the house ready for letting and sorting what we will keep and what must be sentenced.

On 17th May Spruce left the BVIs to start an expected 6-day sail to Bermuda some 850 Miles to the North. The first tropical depression of the season and a selection of other weather phenomena conspired top extend this to 13-days at sea. Here are some photographs of that passage.

Spruce sailed from Dominica to Les Saintes on 17th March 2010. These islands are just south of and part of the French overseas department of Guadeloupe. This album captures memories of this, our next, island in the Antilles.

Between 2nd December and 18th December 2009 Spruce sailed from Mindelo, Cape Verde Islands, to Barbados, caribbean. This album shows some of the photographs taken at sea during the 15 Day and 21 hour crossing.

Spruce sailed from La Gomera, Canary Islands, for the Cape Verdes on 14th November 2009 and arrived at Mindelo on the island of Sao Vincente after 6 days at sea. This album captures the passage getting there and the time in Sao Vincente and the adjacent island of Santo Antao.

Friends who are planning on heading off on future cruising trips themselves have expressed interest in feedback on our thoughts about the various systems and equipment aboard... what works well, lessons learned and general thoughts based upon experience. We have divided the blog into two categories: News and Updates; Boat Systems... the general news items uploaded so far will by under "News & Updates" and the equipment etc will be under "Boat Systems" ... you should be able to filter what categories you view when you access the blog.

Spruce cruised from Baltimore to Bantry Bay and then up to the Aran Islands in Galway Bay. After spending the summer solstice celebrations at this most northerly point of the cruise we headed back to the Shannon and Dingle before sailing for Galicia in Spain.