An analytical look at what we’ve learned about the Big Ten in the first two months of the season and how the conference race shapes up as league play begins on New Year’s Eve:

THE FAVORITES

Michigan State's biggest strength is coach Tom Izzo. (AP Photo)

To stick with Indiana alone as favorites would be to fail to acknowledge that Michigan has been the more complete, assured team and possesses the necessary equipment to challenge for both the Big Ten title and the national championship. To install the Wolverines as favorites alone would ignore that IU retains the highest ceiling of any team in Division I, even if the Hoosiers have left it mostly unexplored to date.

Indiana. The Hoosiers’ challenges to date have been primarily out of their control, including the preseason injury to reserve forward Derek Elston and the suspension of freshman big Hanner Mosquera-Perea. A team that figured to be solid in the frontcourt basically operated the first third of the season without backups. Even without much behind them, center Cody Zeller should be closer to greatness and power forward Christian Watford should be tougher inside. But IU’s defense has improved dramatically, and wings Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey are progressing nicely.

To be genuinely special, IU needs more from Zeller in its half-court offense, which involves his own confidence and his teammates’ commitment to getting him the ball in dangerous positions. And the Hoosiers need Watford to be a player they want on the floor in big moments instead of one taking unnecessary shots and struggling to rebound and defend.

Michigan. Freshman Nik Stauskas’ emergence as a full-time player who might be the best shooter in the nation might be the most pleasant surprise for the Wolverines, but the blossoming of Trey Burke into college basketball’s most complete point guard and Tim Hardaway Jr. into a consistent perimeter scorer aren’t far behind.

And there still is more that can develop. Freshman big man Mitch McGary has had good moments, but he’s being introduced slowly. What if he really starts to go? Freshman forward Glenn Robinson III hasn’t totally found a rhythm while playing mostly power forward, but his 17 points against Arkansas showed he can deliver when necessary. What we don’t know for sure about the Wolverines: Can they be a significant defensive team?

THE CHALLENGERS

Michigan State. You won’t find much belief around the league that the Spartans could catch the Big Ten title if the Wolverines or Hoosiers dropped it. Tom Izzo still is going game to game looking for who might perform on a given night. Center Derrick Nix had 25 against Texas not long after scoring four against Loyola. Denzel Valentine had 12 points in a win over Bowling Green but lasted only nine minutes in that Texas game.

MSU doesn’t have an ideal lineup, either. As much as any team, this lineup would benefit from having a stretch-4 -- a shooting power forward who could clear space for point guard Keith Appling’s drives or Nix’s low-post strength. But Adreian Payne is more of a second center. That’s why the Spartans won’t win the league. Izzo is why they might come close.

Minnesota. This is the team that could step in as champion should Indiana and Michigan fail to perform the required duties. The funny thing about the respect for the Gophers is it’s based largely on the impression they keep making rather than any single result that commands one’s attention.

The best win to date? Memphis on a neutral floor? At Florida State? Nothing spectacular. But the Gophers keep doing well against the level of teams they’ll face almost without interruption in this Big Ten. They have shown the ability to perform at both ends. They have the versatility to play with big lineups or small. They have a dynamic guard, Andre Hollins, who can produce big numbers but doesn’t insist on big shots. The Gophers must beat better teams than they have to date to win the Big Ten or come close, but it just seems like they’ve got a shot at that.

HOPING TO FINISH ABOVE .500

Illinois. When the Illini finally lost a game under John Groce -- and it sure took a while -- they were beaten in the area that shapes up as most ominous entering the Big Ten: They were pounded on the boards. Groce was not left with much in the way of interior size or strength. This might not be as great a problem in other leagues, but the Big Ten has a bunch of teams that will wear down the Illini.

It’s possible this team could pull off a 7-2 or better record at home and maybe manage 4-5 on the road. An 11-7 mark in this Big Ten coupled with the non-league performance would put the Illini into something like a No. 5 NCAA Tournament seed. For a team that was projected as a bubble team at best in preseason, that’d be a heck of a deal.

Iowa. Unlike Illinois and Ohio State, which might have been listed as contenders were the favorites more within reach, Iowa’s inclusion in this group will not be perceived as a slight. It’s exactly what the Hawkeyes should be looking to achieve in their third season under coach Fran McCaffery, with a developing core of young players such as forward Aaron White and guard Roy Devyn Marble and a capable freshman class filling in the gaps. The Hawkeyes have tinkered with the idea of pressing less, which might not be a terrible idea. Another option would be using it as a nuisance rather than a means of accelerating the pace.

Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t yet located a lineup that can allow them to take advantage of the one thing they do really well (defend) while addressing the thing they don’t (score). This is where offensive efficiency stats can lead you astray; OSU is ranked No. 9 in this stat by kenpom.com, but they’re shooting 45 percent from the floor and couldn’t reach 70 points against either of their ranked opponents, Duke or Kansas. Which figures seem to better represent what you’ve seen?

The Buckeyes have a tremendous will and stalwart defense that allowed them to control their game at Duke before the offense failed to hold it, as well as hanging in against Kansas when it went through a 10-minute field-goal drought. But aside from star Deshaun Thomas, they lack a reliable offensive weapon. Committing to a fulltime dual-point backcourt with Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott could put OSU back in the title race, but coach Thad Matta hasn’t yet given in to the idea.

Wisconsin. In every season Bo Ryan has coached the Badgers, they’ve finished in the top four in the Big Ten race. If they place fourth this time in anything other than an eight-way tie, Ryan should walk immediately from the final regular-season game to enshrinement in Springfield.

It’s not that the Badgers are bad. It’s that they’re not yet fully operational in a league loaded with teams that will contend for top-four NCAA seeds. The loss of Josh Gasser during preseason practice still has the Badgers searching. They’ve lost to four of their six top opponents, but commanding wins over Cal and Arkansas indicate they could find a way to finish near the top half of this league. Which, in this season, would be worthy of an NCAA bid. That’s a Ryan/Wisconsin streak that need not end.

HOPING TO FINISH NEAR .500

Purdue. Only the Boilers’ pedigree, really, prevents their inclusion in the “hoping to finish” category. They are far closer to “hope” than to “.500.” The Boilers shoot 41.7 percent from the floor. How far is that going to get you against Indiana and Michigan?

Nebraska. Everything about the switch to new coach Tim Miles has gone nicely, including those novel halftime tweets. The team just isn’t talented enough yet to avoid double-digit Big Ten losses. But how many digits are we talking?

Northwestern. For the current regime to continue, the Wildcats likely must avoid a total implosion, even though they’re now without star Drew Crawford (shoulder) as well as defensive specialist JerShon Cobb (academics). If NU can battle its way to a respectable finish, the return of Cobb and Crawford next season could set up the Wildcats for a substantial move forward. If they crumble, who knows what the spring will bring?

HOPING TO FINISH

Penn State. In preseason, the Lions were an easy pick for an 11th- or 12th-place finish. With superstar guard Tim Frazier (Achilles) gone, that choice becomes clear.