SDSU tight end suddenly set for stardom?

If past production is the best predictor of future performance, then Alston Umuolo probably should be expected to have a very unnoticeable season this year.

He’s only scored four touchdowns in 33 college football games at San Diego State. His career average in receiving yards per game is a paltry 12.7. He’s never even caught more than 22 passes in one season.

Yet there he is listed as one of 32 candidates for the Mackey Award, given annually to the best tight end in the nation. Last month, the media voted him best tight end in the Mountain West Conference. Now SDSU offensive coordinator Al Borges has said Umuolo’s number of catches this year “could be in the 40s or 50s if everything works the way it should work.”

Wait a minute. Are they all really talking about the same kid who wasn’t seriously recruited by any other school except Nevada? The same kid who never really played tight end until 2007?

Umuolo's catches

2007: 6 for 67 yards

2008: 14 for 110 yards

2009: 22 for 243 yards

Total: 42 for 420 yards

Check that. Same player. The difference is expectations. They’re suddenly huge. He figures to be one of SDSU’s main cogs in its quest to reach to its first bowl game since 1998. It’s just a matter of meeting those projections, which have exploded for at least two big reasons.

--1. In theory, SDSU’s wealth of other talented skill-position players could leave Umuolo, a senior, under-covered by the opposing defense. The opposing defense might need to pay extra attention to all-conference receiver Vincent Brown. Or sixth-year receiver DeMarco Sampson. Or speedy freshman running backs Ronnie Hillman and Ezell Ruffin. The opponent can’t double-team all of those guys, so one of them is bound to be open. A good bet is that will be Umuolo.

“It’s going to be about who the defense chooses not to cover at any given time,” quarterback Ryan Lindley said. Umuolo could be “anywhere from 50 to 100” catches, he said. “Depends on how they cover us.”

--2. The other reason many expect Umuolo to have a career year this year is the second half of last season. Borges can distill it down to one play. It came on in the fourth quarter in a 42-28 win at Colorado State on Oct. 24. After making the catch, he raced past several defenders for a 60-yard touchdown.

“He made a phenomenal NFL-type run,” Borges said. “From then on, he had more confidence with the ball in his hands. You could see his skill level on that play. That kind of showed it.”

He finished the season with 12 catches for 163 yards in the last six games of the season. He also showed signs of skills similar to a player Umuolo likes to watch -- Chargers tight end Antonio Gates.

Alston Umuolo

Age: 21

Hometown: Phoenix

Height/Weight: 6-4, 255

Class: Senior

Previously, Borges had questions about his ability to run with the ball after catching it. SDSU coaches already knew he had receiving skills because he played receiver at Centennial High in Peoria, Ariz. His athletic versatility is what caught the eye of SDSU’s coaching staff under former head coach Chuck Long.

Former assistant coach Joe Bob Clements recruited him as a tight end, making him one of the few schools to show interest in him, probably because he was largely off the radar of many recruiters for different reasons. He had spent his first two high school years in Spokane, Wash., where his Nigerian father Uche worked as an attorney. His father, who originally came to Arizona from Nigeria to get an education, then decided to return to work in the Phoenix area, where Alston was born.

“It’s always hard when you have to make a transition,” Alston Umuolo said. “You have to learn a new offense and new system. It could have factored in (to not getting much recruiting interest). I really don’t know, I just kept working hard and let everything fall into place. I’m fortunate to play here.”

He said he considers his preseason honors "a team accomplishment." Of this year's expectations, he said, "Honestly, if I catch one ball I’ll be happy."

That attitude also helped him adjust from Chuck Long’s spread offense, in which he was more of an inside receiver, to the Borges pro-style offense, in which he’s become more of a blocker. He’s added about 10 pounds since last season and is listed at 6-foot-4, 255 pounds.

“His transition was as drastic (from the previous offense), if not the most drastic of anybody in the offense,” Borges said. “It took him a little while to figure out exactly how to go about it, but it’s clicked. He has a good idea what to do now. A year ago, he was an assignment error waiting to happen. I don’t want to anoint him just yet, but he has become a pretty reliable entity within our offense.”