In original terms, the January balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,887m, a decrease of $160m (8%) on the deficit in December. Goods and services credits fell $910m (8%), and goods and services debits fell $1,070m (8%).

In the seven months to January, exports of non-rural and other goods were down $5.6b (10%) and rural goods were down $3.1b (19%) on the corresponding period in 2002-03.

Notes

CAUTIONARY NOTE

The tables in this publication are presented on two bases. Tables 1-6 contain estimates of Australia's international trade in goods and services which have been adjusted for coverage, valuation and timing to a balance of payments basis. Tables 7-10 contain estimates of merchandise exports and imports based on Australian Customs Service records. Paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes provides an explanation of the difference between these bases.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra 02 6252 6792.

Analysis and comments

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in January 2004 was a deficit of $2,040m, an increase of $7m on the deficit in December.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in January 2004 was a deficit of $1,962m, a decrease of $592m (23%) on the deficit in December.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $79m (1%) in January to $11,814m.

an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January, which contributed about 5 percentage points to the rise

non-industrial transport equipment, down $147m (14%), compared with an average December to January fall of 19% over the previous three years

consumption goods n.e.s., down $37m (4%), falling at a lower rate than the historical average.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

food and beverages, down $78m (16%), compared with an average December to January fall of 4% over the previous three years

toys, books and leisure goods, down $46m (17%), compared with an average December to January fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $34m (1%) to $2,653m.

Imports of intermediate and other goods, in original terms, fell $401m (8%) to $4,478m.

Contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:

fuels and lubricants, down $148m (17%), in contrast to an average rise between December and January of 5% over the previous three years

processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $41m (4%), in contrast to an average rise between December and January of 12% over the previous three years

other parts for capital goods, down $80m (11%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 3% over the previous three years

goods for processing, down $9m (3%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 20% over the previous three years

primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $40m (37%), compared with an average December to January fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Offsetting these effects by about 6 percentage points was the adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.

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