Potential for cropland expansion

Potential for cropland expansion

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Description:
Current projections suggest that an additional 120 million ha
– an area twice the size of France or one-third that of India – will
be needed to support the traditional growth in food production
by 2030, mainly in developing countries (FAO, 2003), without
considering the compensation required for certain losses. The
demand for irrigated land is projected to increase by 56% in Sub-
Saharan Africa (from 4.5 to 7 million ha), and rainfed land by 40%
(from 150 to 210 million ha) in order to meet the demand, without
considering ecosystem services losses and setbacks in yields and
available cropland (FAO, 2003; 2006). Increases in available cropland
may be possible in Latin America through the conversion of
rainforests (Figure 13), which in turn will accelerate climate change
and biodiversity losses, causing feedback loops that may hinder
the projected increases in crop yields. The potential for increases
is more questionable in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa due to
poli ...

Trends in productivity 1981-2003 (greening and land degradation)Unsustainable practices in irrigation and production may lead
to increased salinization of soil, nutrient depletion and erosion.
An estimated 950 million ha of salt-affected lands occur
in arid and semi-arid regions, ...

By Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

An increasing number of countries are leasing land abroad to sustain and secure their food productionThe world regions are sharply divided in terms of their capacity
to use science in promoting agricultural productivity in order
to achieve food security and reduce poverty and hunger. For every
US$100 of agricultural ...

By Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Trends in world agricultural exportsThe availability of food within a specific country can be guaranteed
in two ways: Either by food production in the country itself
or by trade. The first option has been discussed extensively
in the previous chapters. ...

By Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Selected drought events in Africa, 1981-1999, and livestock impactsWater scarcity in terms of drought or depleted groundwater
could therefore have great impacts on livestock and rangelands.
These interactions are also complex. While drought can
directly threaten livestock, other fact...

Biofuels production 2005, by country (ethanol and biodiesel)Production of crops for biofuels also competes with food production
(Banse et al., 2008). Indeed, the corn equivalent of the
energy used on a few minutes drive could feed a person for a
day, while a full tank of ethan...

By Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Trends in urban and rural populations, less developed regions, 1960-2030 (estimates and projections) According to the latest UN estimates, almost all of the
world’s population growth between 2000 and 2030 will be
concentrated in urban areas in developing countries (Figure
32). By 2030, almost 60% of the people in dev...

By Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

FAO Food price index (FFPI)The current world food crisis is the result of the combined effects of competition for cropland
from the growth in biofuels, low cereal stocks, high oil prices, speculation in food
markets and extreme weather events. T...