Thursday, September 07, 2006

NFL '06 Picks

I will say that one thing I'm bummed about not writing the Quickie anymore is that Will Leitch over at Deadspin wasn't able to point to my season predictions for his "Pants Party" posts with a range of opinions from quote-unquote "experts."

Anyway, here are my division picks for the '06 season, just in under the wire, and cribbed from my Quickie column on Aug. 30:

NFC East:1. Giants2. Cowboys3. Redskins4. Eagles

(Scary enough, I have been saying for weeks that the entire division will go 9-7, and there -- lo and behold -- SI said the same thing in their preview issue last week.)

NFC North1. Bears2. Vikings (WC)3. Lions4. Packers

NFC South1. Panthers2. Falcons3. Bucs4. Saints

NFC West1. Seahawks2. Cards (WC)3. Rams4. 49ers

AFC: I'm going to change my picks from the Quickie column on Aug. 30 where I made my "official" picks. Call me a little bolder, now that I'm simply doing this on my own blog:

AFC East1. Dolphins2. Pats (WC)3. Bills4. Jets

(In the Quickie, I had the Pats winning the division and the Dolphins as the Wild Card. I think the Dolphins start the season off huge with a win over Pittsburgh tonight, then ride that momentum all the way to the division title.)

AFC North1. Bengals2. Steelers3. Ravens4. Browns

(In the Quickie, I had the Steelers winning the division with the Bengals winning the Wild Card. Now, I think that the Steelers will start in an 0-2 hole and not recover in time to win a Wild Card spot. They used up that mojo a year ago.)

(Obviously, if you read Deadspin, you know I'm into the Jags this season. In the Quickie, I picked the Colts to win the division and the Jags to miss the playoffs altogether. Now that I'm on the Jags bandwagon, I'm blinded by my new loyalty. Colts questions at RB are key.)

AFC West1. Chargers2. Broncos3. Chiefs4. Raiders

(I picked the Broncos in my Quickie preview, but unless they switch from Plummer to Cutler at QB, they're not winning the division. I like Philip Rivers with a breakout year as a steady hand.)

Yes, I still stand by my original Colts-over-Bears Super Bowl. (For now.)

I love how a team can go 15-1 in a season, then the next season go 11-5 when their starting QB misses 3 or 4 games and still WIN THE SUPERBOWL, but they need mojo to even make the playoffs the following year.

Ok Dan, and that 6-10 Eagles season wasn't an abberation? I'm guessing you dont lay any money on what you say.

I disagree with so many of these picks. I guess that's what makes preseason picks fun... here are my changes...

NFC East:1. Eagles2. Giants (WC)3. Cowboys4. Redskins

McNabb has a probowl year and the Redskins come back to earth with an aged (past aging) Mark Brunell.

NFC North:1. Bears2. Lions3. Vikings4. Packers

What's with super old, completely immobile QBs being chosen to do well this season? Brad Johnson is out with a shoulder injury by week 4.

NFC South: same

NFC West:1. Rams2. Seahawks (WC)3. Cardinals4. 49ers

I am going with history on the Super Bowl loser imploding the season after the SB, but the Seahawks play in such a bad division they'll make the WC. The Cards are a good fantasy team, that doesn't make them a good NFL team.

wayyyyyy to many posts today to keep up with them. You need to centralize/condense things. Gasp, maybe you will have to re-invent the way you do things instead of keeping the DQ style going. Obviously you got booted off of ESPN bc the DQ was stale so try something new. You seem to be a bright enough guy.

DAN, I am sooo sick of everyone (Including you) sleeping on Tampa. WHY. They are returning the same def, you remember, the best defense in the league last year (YES OVER CHICAGO STATISTACLLY), and they have a young offense coming back that is got a year under the belt ,PLUS a huge upgrade to the offensive line. I know you guys must think I am biased, but atleast we dont cheat, like the Panthers. It really hurt to see Atlanta ranked above us too Dan, hurt bad.

Ok, Dolphins might be the most overrated team in the league. Does everyone remember what Culpepper did at the beginning of last year when he was healthy. The biggest lose for the Colts is thornton which will weaken there D and with Edge to help control the ball they will be the same team as always, good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to win it all. My pick for this years Super Bowl, Belichick VS The Tuna, Patriots Over the Cowboys

Not to cricize too much, but you think that all the NFC East could go 9-7, yet you have Minnesota being one of the wild card teams. That puts them at least at 9-7, and probably 10-6. I know that they are in a horrid division, but I honestly don't think that they can win more than 8 games. I also don't see Pittsburgh missing the playoffs, but a super bowl winner missing the next year is not unheard of. That is what makes it so exciting, and I am really looking forward to watching a lot of football this weekend (although not tonight, gotta root for the Tigers against the Twinkies).

I have the NFC like this... It starts to come together for the Giants, thanks to a healthy "Medium Four" (as opposed to "big three") of Manning, Shockey, Barber and Buress. They win in a "Rams lite" sort of way by spreading their offensive options out covering up that thin D (Arrington brings no help). Eagles will take their knocks when Westbrook goes down for a couple of weeks with his yearly injury, but that Tough, experienced D that has played together for ohh... going on FOREVER now keeps them in games. Cowboys get it together offensively and Jones hits his stride around week 11, pushes them in. The Bears take the weakest divison in football.. with Griese leading the way after week 3. Carolina? As long as Steve Smith is okay and Deangelo Williams moves along as planned, whats to stop them in a divison with a team totally lost at Quarterback (TB), a team with no big uglies up front on either side of the ball (SAINTS) and a one demensional team thats above average defensively at best? (Atlanta). Seattle.. you can just go ahead and call them the San Diego Padres of the NFL. I mean, that division is going to be terrible, with the Lou trying to make so many adjustments on offense, the laughably bad 49ers, and the young Cardinals with a wash up blocking the way at QB and all the new faces, 9-7 could win that division.

AFC East1. New England2. Mami3. Buffalo4. New York

AFC North1. Cincinnati 2. Pittsburgh (WC)3. Baltimore4. Cleveland

AFC South1. Indianapolis2. Jacksonville (WC)3. Tennessee4. Houston

AFC West1. Denver2. San Diego3. Kansas City4. Oakland

THIS IS SIMPLE MATH -- The Pats walk in a divison that will be terrible... trust me. Miami needs a season or so to get it all together (see the 1997-1999 Titans). Buffalo = garbage. The Jets? 6-10 would be a miracle with Pennington coming off that shoulder and what I like to refer to as the Curtis Martin Situation (C.M.S. for short) Cincy has a ton of weapons, and tread water defensively.... that should be good enough to beat a distracted Steelers team that everyone is gunning for. The Ravens? they just arent getting any younger. Cleveland's season is in the toilet already because of their problems up front. Indy's spot would belong to Jacksonville if they didn't have so many IFS (IF Fred Taylor gives them good minutes, IF Leftwitch stays healthy, IF that young defense keeps that chip on their shoulder.. you know the one they had from playing in Indy's shadow all of last year?). Indy just needs a back to keep people guessing and they will be okay until January. My poor Titans, totally lost.. the youngest team in the NFL... still to years away. Houston???? You mean the Houston Texans???? yeah, they don't have a change of even going 8-8. Denver with the same ole' recipe.. hard hitting, aggressive D coupled with a ball control style offense. Parcells probably dreams about this setup. San Diego will have some growing pains, with LDT keeping them alive while Rivers is mareveling at the SPEED of NFL football. KC? Herm Edwards has a lot of work to do, because a sterling ground game does you no good when everyone scores on you, ask Atlanta. Oakland is a train wreck, lead by a QB that once threw a pick with his nonthrowing hand. I mean nothing reeks of desperation like a Jeff George signing.

What about the Browns man? I think that Cleveland is going to surprise a few people when Romeo Crennel has a few things up his sleeve. This of course would only hold true if they don't run out of centers. I like your pic of the Jags winning the division. What's up with the diss against Jake Plummer? I'm an ASU boy and I think that he is going to have a good year. Anyway, thanks for posting this Dan.

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.