Analysis on IT trends and competitive strategies, with emphasis on micro processors, computer systems and networks. Based on latest news, backed up with real data, this site intends to provide a true and realtime picture of the fast changing IT landscape. This journal strives to be accurate on facts and sharp on criticisms. You may email your opinion to sharikou@yahoo.com or post comments here, be cool and intelligent.

About Me

Freelance journalist on IT matters. Some of my writings have been published on online IT journals. Any original content on this journal is Copyrighted, but it's free for non-commercial use. Any Trademarks used on this site belong to their respective owners. Some of the pictures are links. If there is any issue with the content of this site, please email sharikou@yahoo.com .

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Real world experience with Intel CPUs

A reader posted the following based on his many years of experience:

I live in the “Real World” not the “Benchmark World.” The problem I have with the Intel CPU is that it is real fast until it reaches “Critical Mass” where it suddenly stops. (Five minutes to open Outlook, I couldn’t connect with Terminal services either.) AMD, however, slows proportionally to the load, and when dealing with an Outlook memory leak putting the CPU at 100% usage recently, I was still able to remote in and fix the problem. I fully agree. I had used Intel servers before, in a lot of situations, the server got overloaded, reaching 100% CPU utilisation, when that happened, it was impossible to login remotely. I had to call the datacenter and had the locked up Intel server rebooted. I never had similar problems with Opterons.

In one of Bob Colwell's stanford lectures, he admitted that the Intel CPU design uses an instruction scheduling algorithm that often enters a kind of loop which it takes a long long time to get out. When that happens, the Intel CPU would appear locked up.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Why is Intel QX6700 quad core a $125 CPU

Look at this picture. Michael Dell was excited, I heard, he is going to switch to near 100% AMD by 1Q08, just one quarter ahead of Intel's projected BK.

I think AMD's seemingly painful 1Q07 was Hector's plan. By taking a huge hit in 1Q07, AMD builds massive amount of inventory to flood Q2 -- those $59 X2 3600s just keep coming wave after wave. Then in Q3, K10 is out to push all of Intel CPUs down below $100 (except QX6700, which will be sold at $125). Intel's planned price cut in July is too little-- they only cut 50%, they need a 75% cut.

Intel's Penryn may see some clock speed increases, but those will be way short of narrowing the huge IPC gap. Also keep in mind, AMD is migrating to better SOI transistors in 65nm, which will result in 40% clockspeed boost.

Rahul thinks AMD made Intel stronger than ever. How ridiculously wrong. He can't see that Intel is at its last breath. Every sign tells us that Intel is doomed. The reason is simple. AMD has become a major player in server, desktop and mobile and has sufficient capacity. All AMD needs is one killer chip and Intel will be mortally wounded. This is because Intel is huge animal which needs a lot of food to survive, once AMD cuts Intel's revenue by 50%, Intel will die within two quarters, insufficient time for making any adjustments. The situation for Intel is unlike others. SUN always has this Sparc niche to enjoy its meal, so it can last a long time dying slow. Intel and AMD CPUs are software and hardware (except MB) compatible, and AMD has become a smarter choice.

Now, you ask, why should Intel die?

The reason is simple: Intel has been lagging behind AMD for five generations for four years, and there is no sign of catching up. Intel is behind on (a) virtualized 64 bit computing (b) IMC (c) direct IPC (ccHt) (d) direct Core-Core communication (e) virtualized HyperTransport I/O.

The Core 2 architecture somehow reduced the gap in 64 bit and Core-Core communication. But it was a kludge, the solution can't be extended to quad core. Intel's 64 bit architecture is incapable of IOMMU and now AMD made it to IOMMU 1.2.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Rahul needs a philoshopy lesson

Rahul expressed his disblief on the Journal of Pervasive 64 bit Computing. I read news every day, and I fully understand Rahul's feelings. He is an AMD fan. He likes to see AMD win, though he pretends to be fair to Intel. But, as almost everyone else, his vision is way too short.

I simply think on a larger time scale. When you look at problems at larger scale, the fluctuations get smeared out.

AMD is indeed in an enivable position. 1Q07 was AMD's moment of awakening. As a result, it has tons of x2 inventory that it can flood the market like hell, and it has the K10 killer right behind that flood, and DELL, HP, Lenovo, Acer, SUN, IBM and everyone else (except a few corrupt Japanese vendors) will hype K10 like crazy. Intel's fastest chip will be slower than AMD's slowest.

Hector Ruiz described the future quite figuratively: AMD will launch a Tsunami of new products. What Intel will see will not be a huge wave caused by a Typhoon, but a giant body of water 500 feet high and with wavelength of 5 miles -- the drowning liquid just keeps coming and coming.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

K10 clock increase is 470 MHZ to be exact

INQ's reported 500MHZ hike was an approximation. The true number is 470MHZ (Of course, we know they are statistically equal.) Basically ,AMD's 65nm is doing 45nm speeds, the beauty of SOI+other exotic tricks.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Is Jack Thompson a typical American lawyer?

Someone mentioned Jack Thompson is being disbarred in the comments. I had no idea who Thompson is. But, look at what I found (see the docket at the end). Thompson practiced 30 years of law, but he acted like a total moron.

His excuse was that this was the first time he went federal... unbelievable. I thought in law school Civil Procedure is a required course.

Date Filed

#

Docket Text

ORDER REASSIGNING CASE. Case reassigned to Judge Paul C. Huck for all further proceedings. Judge James I. Cohn no longer assigned to case.Signed by Judge James I. Cohn on 4/2/2007 and by Judge Paul C. Huck on 4/5/2007.(ls) (Entered: 04/05/2007)

AMD FAB36 will be dedicated to K10 and Turion production. I expect dual core K10s be used for mobile. FAB30 will be dedicated to X2 production at 90nm, and it will become a 45nm FAB in 2Q08. Chartered should be converted to 65nm production soon.

Intel will pay $1 for each Pentium D sent to landfill. No one will buy a PC with Pentium D when Core 2 Duos will be dirt cheap. Remember, the CPU is just one component of a PC.

Friday, May 04, 2007

AMD may construct three more FABs

People may ask where the money is for these FABs. I tell you, that's never an issue. As long as AMD has the technology and OEM support, it can get 10 billion dollars to finish the FABs.

Don't forget that all of Intel's profits belong to AMD once Intel found guilty and is liable for treble damages.

Someone posted a benchmark showing Opteron faster than Woodcrest Xeon in CPU intensive SQL tests. But, this is only a test. In real life applications, consider yourself lucky if your Woodcrest Xeon did not crash randomly.