Vietnam may come out "winner" from US - China trade war: Dragon Capital

Updated at Thursday, 13 Sep 2018, 11:00

The Hanoitimes - For Washington, it is "all about bashing China" for geo-strategic and commercial reasons, stated the CIO of Dragon Capital.

Vietnam could potentially benefit from the escalating China-U.S. trade war even as Washington continues to threaten Beijing with more tariffs, said Bill Stoops, CIO of Dragon Capital.

Illustrative photo.

Under the current circumstance, even China might start to shift a lot more of its production to Vietnam, so long as the move is not "zapped" by the US, Stoops said in an interview with CNBC on August 12.

"This is the sort of trend we could see," Stoops was quoted by CNBC.

Vietnam is unlikely to be a target in the trade war, despite having a US$40 billion trade surplus with the U.S., Stoops said. For Washington, it is "all about bashing China" for geostrategic and commercial reasons, he added.

Recent weeks have seen emerging market currencies taking a hit over fears of contagion from crises in Turkey and Argentina, with the Indonesian rupiah among the hardest hit, falling to a two-decade low against the dollar in early September.

Asked if the jitters could hit sentiment on Vietnam, Stoops said the country's currency, the dong, has "a very sound macro underpinning." He said the country held "very substantial" foreign exchange reserves and has a net positive in areas such as its current account - the flow of goods and services and investments in and out of the country.

In the event that the U.S. Federal Reserve increases rates by a 100 to 125 basis points over the next 12 months, the dong would be "fine," he said.

​The strength of the dong is in part due to locals being "happy with the way the currency is being managed," Stoops said.