Tuesday, January 31, 2012

By now we have all read and heard about the Patriots and what
the media continually touts as the 31st ranked defense, only besting
the Packers this season. But what does
that ranking truly mean? Is it really an
indicator of a porous defense?

To truly measure the positive or negative impact of a
defensive unit one needs to analyze much more than purely yards allowed, as
there are so many factors that can go into driving that metric it is
essentially almost useless. How else
could you consider the fact GB & NE were the two worst performers in that
stat all season, yet they somehow went a combined 28-4 SU in the regular season
(RS)? It makes ABSOLUTELY ZERO SENSE to
use yards allowed as ANY KIND OF INDICATOR of defensive performance.

Instead, what is a useful exercise is to take a closer look
at many more stats, and for today that means the 16 stats I track on a game by
game basis to dig deeper and see if that statement is true, and also look at
which areas NE is productive vs. where they struggle.

As a quick background and reminder, I track 16 different
stats on a game by game basis for my main “performance” model which gives me a
very solid feel for how productive teams are, and more importantly how team’s
match up with each other. Over the
course of the last 6 months there are many posts in this blog discussing this
performance model if you are interested.

But back to the point at hand - on the season I have rated
the Patriots defense #29, only ahead of #30 BUF, #31 IND & #32 TB. GB, which checks in at #32 in yards allowed,
is rated #27 in my model – two notches above NE. Anyway you want to slice and dice it, the
Patriots statistically speaking did not play well defensively this season. But is it truly as bad as the media
suggests? Where specifically are their weaknesses
that NYG may be able to take advantage of, or where are their strengths (if any
– the media would have you believe there are none) where NYG may struggle – and
most importantly, how do the two teams match up on this side of the ball? All stats and rankings below include only RS
games.

Rushing defense:

Yards per rush -
#26

Yards rushing - #15

First downs rushing
- #19

First downs rushing as
a % of total carries - #24

Rushing defense
synopsis: together these four rankings equal the #20 rushing defense in
the NFL. However, that ranking cannot be
looked at on a standalone basis – why you may ask? What also needs to be included to get a truly
accurate picture is strength of schedule (SOS) – that is very critical when
analyzing any stats in the NFL. In this
example NE played the #13 SOS vs. rushing offenses – what that means is for all
16 RS opponents they have played it aggregates to the 13th toughest
schedule (so in this example what that basically means is they have played a
schedule of rushing offenses about average because 16 would be the
middle/average). If that was #1 that
would mean they played the toughest schedule in the NFL as far as opponent rushing
offenses goes. Of the 12 teams that
played a tougher schedule vs. rushing offenses 7 of them performed better than
NE – so roughly half, not bad but not great.
We can also make a few more solid judgments on their rushing defense
looking at it on a stat by stat basis:

While their yards rushing
was #15, or middle of the pack, their yards per rush was #26 – poor. Here is a perfect spot where if you
understand the entire stat package you can make strong conclusions as far
as their true rushing defense performance – what that relationship is
telling us is teams had a lot of success when they attempted to rush, but
more times than not they apparently did not have as many attempts as they probably
would have liked to boost that total yards rushing figure up. We can see a clear relationship here if
we look at passing attempts – NE faced the 4th most passing
attempts in the NFL – a clear sign teams were often behind and needed to
score to keep pace with the potent Patriots offense, and the fact NE
scored a lot of points (#3 in NFL) – or passed the ball more than they rushed
it. That is why we do not see as
many yards rushing compared to yards per rushing attempt.

We will often see a
correlation between yards per rush and first downs rushing as a % of total
carries – why you ask? If you think
about it, teams were successful on NE rushing the ball when they wanted to
– so for that reason we see when teams tried to rush for first downs in
short to medium yardage situations they were often successful.

Overall I would not consider their rushing defense poor when
taking into account the entire season, but when you look at the way it was
trending it tells a different, and definitely worse story: over their first 7
games they only allowed one team to rush for 100+ yards - @ OAK in Wk4 (average
for the 7 games was 101 yards rushing but most of that is driven by the 160
allowed @ OAK – remove that game and over the 6 they only allowed 91yds/game). However
over their last 9 games in the RS they allowed 7 teams to rush for 100+,and
yielded an average of 129yds/game. So
while the #’s do not show a disaster as far as rushing defense goes, it
certainly was only average at best over the course of the entire season, and
was trending downwards towards poor as far as production is measured over the last
half of the RS.

Passing defense:

Yards per pass attempt
- #29

Completion % - #17

Passing yards - #32

Sacks - #14

Interceptions - #3

Passing TD’s - #26

QB Rating - #20

Passing defense
synopsis: those 7 rankings together equaled the #25 passing defense in
the NFL. Taking into account an SOS of
19, and it all equals a below average pass defense unit for sure. As we can see from the rankings above the
success of the NE pass defense relied a lot on the big play, whether it be the
#3 ranked team for creating interceptions, or the #14 team creating sacks. But a closer look at these high level assumptions
may lead to another viewpoint on these metrics: taking into account the
Patriots faced the 4th most pass attempts in the NFL, their sacks/attempt
and INT/attempt metrics are not as robust – sacks/attempt of 0.0645 is #20 in
the NFL, while INT/attempt of 0.0371 is #7 in the NFL. A small adjustment to be made, but
nevertheless, another warning sign that even the metrics NE appears to be solid
in may not be as good as most media pundits will lead you to believe. Clearly some of the passing yards that slots
them last in the NFL is driven by the fact NE was #3 in scoring offense, which
gives their opponents both more possessions, and an increased chance they will
face more passes (which we do see in the attempts point mentioned above) – but
still, their yards per pass attempt ranking of #29 is extremely poor,
especially considering the # of pass attempts they faced. Here are the teams that faced more passes
than the Patriots this season:

GB: faced a lot of pass attempts because of the same reasons
NE did – typically GB had a nice lead, and the other team was forced to
play catch-up. They were ranked #30
in yards per pass attempt defensively which eventually caught up to them when
they allowed Eli Manning to pass for 325 yards on 9.8 yards per pass
attempt in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

CHI: this team may be an “outsider” of sorts being this high
up, especially for a non-playoff team – but what was driving this figure
was CHI’s #6 ranked rushing defense, vs. the #6 SOS of rushing
offenses. Basically, it was very
tough to run the ball on the Bears, so teams were forced to pass. In addition, their schedule was full of
some of the best QB’s in the NFL: Rodgers twice, Stafford twice, Brees,
Ryan, Rivers, Newton – half of their games were vs. those 6 QB’s. They were ranked #18 in yards per pass
attempt defensively – extremely solid especially considering they faced
the #3 schedule vs. passing offenses – a big reason they started the
season 7-3 before Cutler went down.

NO: same reasons as NE & GB. They were ranked #13 in yards per pass
attempt defensively.

As we can see outside GB the other two teams who faced more
passes than NE performed significantly better in yards per pass attempt - another
red flag. Overall their passing metrics
leave a lot to be desired as if they are not creating turnovers via the
interception they are extremely susceptible to their opponents passing game, as
we saw in the AFC Championship Game where Flacco had one of his better games of
the season passing for his most yards since Wk8, and third most all season.

Miscellaneous
defense:

First Downs - #31

Yards per play -
#30

3rd and 4th
down conversion % - #30

TO Margin - #3

Time of Possession
- #24

Miscellaneous
defense synopsis: first off as an FYI, the last two stats can be
attributed to both offense and defense, so because of that I give both their
offense and defense half of their total performance grade in those stats so as
to not count them twice, and evenly allocate to both sides of the ball. As we see these #s sans turnover margin are
downright brutal; perhaps the two biggest statistical indicators (yards per
play and conversion %) NE ranked #30 –that is driving the perception around the
league about how bad their defensive unit is.
For SOS impact on these figures I typically look at two measures: one is
the actual SOS for these stats which is #24, and overall SOS for opponent’s offense
which is #22. Not much else to say but
wow, these #s are just downright terrible again sans turnover margin,
especially because it can be argued a few of these indicators are the biggest
prognosticator of either success of failure.

But alas, the one figure that stands out in a positive
manner is a big one – and that is TO margin.
Again and again turnovers are key indicators for team success in the
NFL. This season, of the top 10 TO
margin teams in the NFL, only two did not make the playoffs: SEA and DAL. NE checked in @ #3, a robust +17 on the
season. What’s more, the Patriots were
plus in the TO margin 11 of 16 games; toss in another game where it was 0, and
75% of the games this season they didn’t lose that battle. New England has an extremely high correlation
between SU & ATS records vs. TO margin.
Let’s take a closer look at the last 3 seasons:

2011: 13-3 RS record. Negative TO margin 4 games. Records 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The only game all season where they won
the TO margin but lost the game SU was @ PIT in Wk8. One of the negative games was against
NYG in a Wk9 loss.

2010: 14-2 RS record. TO margin +28, ranking #1 in the
NFL. Negative TO margin 3
games. Records 1-2 SU & ATS –
remember, they only lost two games all year!

Amazing, combining the last two season, NE has gone 27-5
during the RS – coincidentally they lost the TO margin 7 times which includes
every loss they have suffered, and they went 2-5 ATS in those games. Combining last 3 seasons they have gone 37-11
during RS – lost TO margin 12 games, and went 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS!

How does New
England keep winning with this defense?

NE’s offense is their best defense. Plain and simple. The fact they average scoring 32 points
per game is by itself going to make it difficult for teams to beat them if
they achieve that average in any given game.

Because NE often goes up early, and scores a lot of points, teams
are forced to abandon their running game and pass the ball often times
more than they are comfortable with.
As we saw teams are effective in the yards per rush metric which
shows success via the ground is attainable – the whole key is how long
will NE’s offense allow a team to stick with that game plan?

Turnovers – NE is consistently at the top of the league in
this metric, and this is one of the top two best at projecting winning and
losing games.

What should the
Giants do to best enhance their chances of having success on offense, and
winning this game?

Run, run, run, and keep running some more. In the prior meeting between these teams
in Wk9 which the Giants won at Gillette 24-20 they rushed for 111 yards,
their 3rd highest total of the season. NYG rushed for 100+ yards in 8 games
this season, and coincidentally went 7-1 SU in those games (keep in mind
their RS record was only 9-7), and a whopping 7-0-1 ATS! During the Giants mid season slump when
they went 0-4 SU in Wks 10-13 they only averaged 74 yards per game on the
ground; when they closed the RS with 3 wins in 4 games they rushed for 91+
in each, and averaged 106 yards per game.
That’s a big difference, and a big reason the G-Men stepped up, won
the NFC East, and now find themselves in the Super Bowl. Have to keep it going on the ground.

Look for the big play through the air. We see from above it isn’t very easy to
complete short yardage passes and attempt to move the chains via the short
passing game vs. NE as they are #17 in completion % allowed. However as discussed above they allow a
ton of yards thru the air, and also allow a ton of yards per attempt –
both those are a recipe for allowing a lot of long yardage
completions. Eli Manning has to
continue looking for Cruz, Manningham and Nicks down the field for big
chunk yardage plays.

Hold onto the ball, and pressure Brady into mistakes. First, Eli Manning must avoid the INT,
something he has had problems with in the past, and just this season
ranking #20 in NFL throwing INT’s.
Manning only had 5 games all season where he did not throw an INT,
and in those 5 games the Giants went 5-0 SU / 3-1-1 ATS. Taking care of the ball is the first
phase. Next, the Giants must
continue pressuring the QB, something they have done as well as anyone in
football this season. NYG check in
@ #3 in sacks, while NE is #10 at allowing sacks – kind of strength vs.
strength here, and this is an area the Giants have to win. Hopefully for the NYG that pressure will
directly force bad decisions from Brady, and allow the #7 defensive unit
in INT’s to pick off a few. INT’s
thrown by Brady and win/loss for NE is directly correlated as Brady threw
2 or more INT’s three times this season, and NE was 1-2 SU / 0-3 ATS in
those games including the prior matchup with NYG.

Conclusion:
we know from examining all the buckets in this analysis that many of the key
indicators do not show well for NE. That
is a fact, and even though the #31 yards allowed defensive ranking the media
touts a lot is a TERRIBLE way to judge performance, in this case it works out
because even looking at this more granular, NE still has a well below average
defensive unit. However, in the biggest
stat of them all, points allowed, NE is ranked #15 – and accomplishing that vs.
the #22 opponent offense SOS would slide
them in just below average. Combine that
with the fact Hall of Famer Tom Brady is their QB leading an offense that averages
32.1 points per game, that Hall of Famer Bill Belichick is their HC, and the
fact they continue to generate a very favorable TO margin, and we can see why
the Patriots continue their winning ways even with sporting a defense that most
teams in the NFL would be picking in the top ten on draft day with. COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012

Thursday, January 12, 2012

For the first time ever I am going to publicly handicap this
game using all the tools I analyze on a weekly basis to give everyone not only
a feel for my style and the numbers I use, but also to give everyone a detailed
breakdown of each of these teams that can hopefully be used to assist in your
personal handicapping of this game. I
will lay out by # each model, database, or piece of information I utilize,
provide some details behind each, and also cover some high level trends and
historical items I may use when breaking NFL games down.

1.UNITS BREAKDOWN: in this
database I breakdown each team’s offense and defense into four buckets: rushing,
passing, miscellaneous and overall. I
use 4 stats for rushing, 7 stats for passing, 5 stats for miscellaneous (these
are stats that cannot directly be related to either rushing or passing such as
first downs, time of possession, etc…), and the combination of all 16 stats for
total offense and defense. In addition
to looking at the stats I look at specific SOS categories for each bucket – meaning
I break down each team’s opponent’s strength in each of these 3 areas by
themselves, and in total. In this game
we have a classic offense vs. defense matchup as the Saints come in with the #1
offense while SF has the #2 defense – and both attained those rankings vs. #31
schedules (SF faced the 2nd easiest schedule vs. offenses while NO
faced the 2nd easiest schedule of defenses on the entire season). Not only is that virtually even, the buckets
are also almost identical – the only area with > 3 spot variance is the
Saints rushing offense that is ranked #7 vs. the Niners rushing defense that is
ranked #1 – both vs. the #32 schedule.
On the other side of the ball SF has an edge as they check in at #16
offensively vs. #9 SOS, while NO’s defense is ranked #24 vs. #18 SOS. Ranking wise the dispersion is almost equal
across all 3 buckets, but the largest SF edge comes in rushing where they are
#15/#7 SOS, while NO is #23/#20 SOS.
Edge: San Francisco driven by their rushing attack.

2.STAT RANKINGS: in this database
I take where each team’s rank in the statistical categories I track and compare
offense to the opponent’s defense for both teams – I sum up the edges for each
team and whoever is plus has an advantage.
Basically, this is just a more granular version of the Units breakdown
and it allows me to focus on specific stats and areas that are driving an
advantage for one team or another. This
database has a very small SF edge mostly due to a slightly tougher SOS as the
two teams are nearly identical in total rankings. One key number that stands out in this model
however is the TO margin – SF led the league at +28 on the season, while NO
checked in at -3. Edge: San Francisco
very small driven by SOS and TO Margin.

3.REGRESSION: in this model I
back-tested 10 years of data on every NFL regular season game that was played, using
the 16 stats I track game by game, and compared those using Excel to a team’s
points scored. Excel responded with a
formula that estimates the approximate weighting each stat has on points scored
– I then take an average of each team’s offense vs. the opponents defense and
vice versa, apply that forecasted amount for each stat by its corresponding
weighting, and sum each team’s points up for a projected margin of
victory. Using this model for this game
SF is estimated to win by approximately 0.5 to 1 point. Edge: San Francisco very small driven by TO
margin.

4.PERFORMANCE RATINGS: anyone that
stops by this blog regularly, or reads the Chad Millman column on www.espn.com knows I refer to this model I built
on a weekly basis as the projections this feeds me more times than not lead me
to picking the right side of a game – which I just realized around Thanksgiving. As a reminder, this model grades team’s game
by game on a scale of 0-160 – there are 160 points per game, so if a team
scores 81 they “won” the game according to these ratings. What’s more, teams that do score 81 or above
in this model cover the line 73% of the time – yes, all that needs to be done
is project who wins in these ratings and you will win cash 73% of the
time. This model will be a major focus
of mine over the summer as baseball season will be a pass for me in order to
prepare for football season – starting right here with this model. I have 3 versions of this model, one uses
full season stats, one uses home/away splits, and one uses last three games –
for each stat I use I project each team’s performance (i.e. 175 rushing yards),
which then gets “graded” based on data over the last ten seasons (i.e. 175
rushing yards = 5 out of a possible 5 points).
Then I sum each team’s offense and defense performance ratings and that
figure has been a big piece of my handicapping over the last third of the
season – not coincidentally I have not lost one week since realizing the
correlation between this model and ATS performance (it would make sense for there
to be high correlation with this model and SU performance as obviously the
better a team does statistically, the better they will grade out, and thus the
more likely they are to win a game SU).
Without divulging the exact ratings this model provides me on this game,
I can state NO has the edge in the full season stats and last three games
versions; while SF has the edge in the H/A splits version. In addition to my performance ratings I also
break out pts scored vs. pts against for each team’s offense vs. defense in the
respective groupings named above, and doing that yields NO -1.8pts using full
season data, SF -7pts using home/away splits, and NO -8.8pts using last 3
games. So at a high level this model is
really providing mixed signals as NO is favored in 2 of the 3 in both performance
ratings and points scored/against versions.
But since it is not absolute, more analysis is needed looking at the
projections for each stat – which will remain for my eyes only. Edge: New Orleans driven by having a favorable
rating grade in 2 of 3 models.

5.HOME/AWAY GRADES: here I take
the average of each team’s offense vs. the opponent’s defense rating (same
ratings from pt4), and vice versa, and add the variances up to see who has the
edge. Applying to this game the NO
offense vs. the SF defense is a dead even wash-out; but the SF offense checks
in at 45.1 in their home games while the NO defense’s average rating in road
games was 36.8. What is interesting here
is although SF has an advantage breaking the numbers down as such, SF was rated
#5 in home game performance this season vs. the #14 SOS, while NO was rated #3
in road game performance vs. the #16 SOS.
When looking at that a little closer, both the SF defense and the NO offense
averaged over 50 rating points per game, which is extremely high. Taking a look at the correlation/relationship
between performance ratings and points scored it would appear although SF and
NO both averaged scoring the same amount of points at home and on road
respectively, SF performed a lot worse than NO – suggesting some of SF’s points
scored were “lucky” and “opportunistic” driven by their strong defense often
giving them short fields to work with. Edge:
San Francisco driven by both their high offense rating and the NO low defense
rating.

6.POWER RATINGS: in my personal
regular season power ratings this game features #1 New Orleans Saints vs. #3
San Francisco Forty-Niners. In the first
aspect of the RS PR which is driven by my performance ratings, I have NO rated
at the top alone, with SF on the next level down. On the season NO was #2 in my performance
stats only trailing HOU (#1 off, #20 def, #31 SOS), while SF was #6 in the
performance stats (#15 off, #4 def, #30 SOS) – which all equates in my
estimation to SF being one notch below NO.
The second aspect of the power rating relates to ATS performance and
although it has a smaller weighting than the performance aspect of the formula,
it does make an impact – and in that NO has a small advantage there as well
partially based on the fact they started the season in a better position in
those ratings than SF did. In the playoff version which takes into account
regular season performance such as points scored, points against, and strength
of opponents (and strength of their opponents opponents), NO has about a 3pt
edge which is just about offset by the home field advantage of SF in this game. Edge: Even

7.RECENT PERFORMANCE: another big
aspect of handicapping is recognizing not only who has performed best over the
course of an entire season, but also who comes in playing the best football as
January arrives. I have a sheet that
shows me all 32 teams in the NFL, and their offense/defense/total performance
rating by game for all 17 weeks of the season.
I also break this down by shading each team’s home and away games to get
a better feel for not only how well a team is currently playing, but also how
their home/away splits have been recently and for the entire season. Wins and losses are good indicators of who is
or isn’t playing well, but often it does not tell the entire story like
analyzing statistics does – and as mentioned earlier these ratings are about as
good as it gets in both the ATS and SU world.
When breaking these two teams down we first notice both teams have been
playing well of late – remember 80 is the “breakeven” in these ratings – NO
scored triple digits 3 of their last 4 games (only one they did not they reached
97), while SF scored 91 and 103 in their last 2, and reached triple digits in 3
of their last 7. Triple digit ratings
are reached by approx. 4 teams every week.
But one noticeable trait seen in these ratings for certain are the
home/away splits definitely favors SF.
Edge: SF small based on the home/away splits; entire season favors NO.

8.ATS HISTORICAL TRENDS: on another
sheet in my package I have the last 4 seasons of ATS performance by team broken
into a few buckets: four high level buckets as home fav/dog and away
fav/dog. Within those buckets I break
lines into 3 categories: 3 or less, 3.5-6.5, 7+. When utilizing this analysis for this
specific matchup we see SF is a robust 15-6 as a home favorite (including 5-0
this year )– but alas they are an underdog this week for the first time all
season and in that spot they are 3-3,
going 2-4 SU. NO on the other
hand is 11-9 as a road favorite going 17-3 SU – this season in this spot they
are 3-3 ATS including 4-2 SU. Hard to
reach any conclusions using this data as on one hand NO is 17-3 SU over the
last 4 seasons as a road favorite – but that is offset some by the fact they
only went 4-2 in that spot this year.
Some specific trends we see are NO are 8-0 L8 as a favorite (a streak
that started following their SU loss @ STL earlier this season), 8-0 L8 vs.
NFC, and 10-3 L13 meetings (dating back to their days as NFC West divisional
rivals); SF is 10-2-1 L13 vs. NFC, 13-3-1 L17 overall, and 12-3-1 L16 on
grass. Again, both teams with lots of
ATS hot streaks coming into this game.
Edge: Even

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Another NFL season is in the books, and as we head into the
playoffs here is part I of approximately 5 that will discuss some of the
interesting statistics we saw this year using my performance ratings model
(PR).In this first edition we will
discuss where the teams stacked up, what that should have meant to their
record, and what it did mean at the end of the day.

OFF

RANK

DEF

RANK

TOTAL

RANK

SOS

Wins

HOU

47.8

5

49.6

2

97.44

1

32

10

NO

57.4

1

37.5

20

94.94

2

31

13

PIT

45.5

10

48.9

3

94.41

3

29

12

BAL

40.6

16

50.2

1

90.75

4

28

12

PHI

47.2

7

42.9

7

90.03

5

16

8

SF

40.8

15

48.6

4

89.38

6

30

13

DAL

46.4

9

41.7

11

88.16

7

24

8

ATL

47.1

8

40.2

13

87.34

8

22

10

GB

53.5

3

32.7

27

86.19

9

27

15

NE

53.6

2

32.2

29

85.78

10

19

13

DET

45.5

11

39.9

16

85.41

11

12

10

NYJ

36.6

20

47.5

5

84.13

12

14

8

SD

47.8

6

36.3

23

84.06

13

23

8

CAR

49.2

4

32.5

28

81.66

14

25

6

NYG

44.3

13

36.5

22

80.78

15

3

9

OAK

44.3

12

36.2

24

80.47

16

20

8

CIN

37.1

19

42.8

8

79.94

17

26

9

MIA

36.2

23

42.3

9

78.41

18

5

6

CHI

36.3

21

41.8

10

78.16

19

10

8

DEN

36.3

22

38.8

18

75.09

20

18

8

SEA

33.8

26

41.3

12

75.09

20

13

7

BUF

42.9

14

31.2

30

74.13

22

4

6

WAS

35.3

24

38.9

17

74.13

22

8

5

KC

33.8

27

40.1

14

73.84

24

15

7

TEN

37.6

17

35.8

25

73.44

25

21

9

JAC

29.4

30

44.0

6

73.38

26

10

5

ARI

33.0

28

40.0

15

73.03

27

17

8

MIN

37.4

18

33.6

26

71.00

28

12

3

CLE

31.0

29

38.5

19

69.56

29

7

4

STL

27.2

32

36.8

21

63.91

30

2

2

TB

34.9

25

28.3

32

63.22

31

1

4

IND

29.3

31

29.1

31

58.44

32

6

2

The above figures represent how each team stacked up in the
statistics I utilize to track true team performance.Teams are rated on a scale of 160 per game,
80 on both offense and defense – so team’s that show a rating of 80 basically played
average football, or an 8-8 type team over the course of a season.

A very important factor when developing any models to
numerically gauge team performance is to include both stats that measure “per
attempt” depending on the metric, but also taking a look at “total” performance
in the same stat.For example, if one
was to only use yards per rush and attempt to decipher if a team is solid running
the ball with only that stat you could be misled – if team A rushes 6 times for
42 yards that would show 7 yards per carry, but if team B rushes for 100 yards on
20 carries that would show 5 yards per carry – and more than likely team B
would represent a stronger running game then team A even though if you only use
the yards per rush category you may not reach that conclusion.In addition, SOS is very important; it is
actually flat out critical to be able to see how strong a team’s opponents are
before rushing to state one team is better because their statistics say
so.That phenomenon also needs to be
applied to unit analysis – what I mean by that is when you are breaking teams
down into rushing, passing, or any other bucket you may use.Let’s discuss an example of this, and show
how often listening to the media can be a big time downfall: in Week 17
Pittsburgh played at Cleveland, and the Pittsburgh passing offense came in
ranked #11 in my ratings, while the Cleveland pass defense came in ranked #10.Sounds about even, right?Well not exactly.For ease of discussion, and since for this
precise example I am using it doesn’t have any impact because we are only
talking stats here, let’s just assume Big Ben came into the game healthy, and
both team’s had no significant injuries and were properly motivated to win this
game.What the media doesn’t take the
time to figure out, but you MUST if you want to be successful at breaking games
down, is PIT’s #11 pass offense came against the 5th toughest schedule
of passing defenses in the NFL; CLE’s #10 pass defense came against the 8th
easiest schedule vs. passing offenses.When including the SOS into this analysis you can see PIT’s passing
offense would have an edge, holding all other variables constant – yet the
media would tout this as a close matchup, maybe even a small CLE edge because
of the pure stats.Be smarter than the
media, and the guys in the desert – do your homework, it is the only way to be
successful at playing these games.Also,
keep that in mind when building your own models and databases to handicap the
NFL – there are various “splits” that should be utilized at all times to better
forecast outcomes.

Let’s take a closer look at the table on first page, and
focus on the playoff teams.The top 4
teams made the playoffs, then 2 of the next 3 missed (PHI, DAL), then the next
4 also made it – which means 9 of the top 11 in the performance ratings made
the playoffs.The last three spots went
to NYG #15, CIN #17 & DEN #20.For
comparative purposes SEA rated a 67.3 last season and was #29 in the NFL – so
the teams this season do not approach that level performance wise –record wise
they certainly do.Many people do not
think DEN has much of a shot vs. PIT this week – but the numbers may tell a
different story.Last season’s epic WC
upset in SEA had more of a discrepancy performance wise than this PIT/DEN game
coming up on Sunday.Last year NO was
rated #7 vs. #28 SOS while SEA was #29 vs. #25 SOS – a 22 spot difference
rating wise with similar SOS ranks.This
year PIT rates #3 vs. #29 SOS while DEN checks in at #20 vs. #18 SOS – a rating
differential of only 17 spots; then add back in the fact DEN has played a
tougher schedule by 11 spots and you can see true team performance wise this
game should be a lot closer than last year’s was – Vegas should have this line
lower than last season’s especially considering the fact PIT has a lot of
injuries coming into this game.That is
something to keep an eye on Sunday for certain.

On to breaking down these numbers some.HOU checking in at #1 has almost the
identical rating of 2010 #1 SD – however HOU spent most of the season in the
triple digits, and started dropping when Matt Schaub went down for the
season.Prior to Schaub going down HOU
was playing 103.4 ball thru Wk10 – following the injury and subsequent move to
mostly TJ Yates under center the Texans played 87.5 ball, which dropped their
season rating below 100.Obviously
heading into the playoffs that needs to be adjusted for – team performance
essentially slid about 15% once Schaub went down.The Colts won the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and
also finished the season ranked dead last in my performance ratings – also of
note it was the lowest rating of any team over at least the last 3
seasons.Hard to imagine one man can
mean so much to a team, but that is what we saw this season when Indy lost
Manning before the season started – last year IND was rated #13 vs. #13 SOS – a
very solid club.Another interesting
team is Philadelphia, as they check in at #5 in the ratings, yet only went
8-8.Here is a prime example where we
can see the impact of SOS – look how high their SOS is compared to many of the
teams around them – they actually have the highest SOS of the top 10 teams in
the NFL – which clearly impacted their W/L record.It is also not a coincidence the other team
that stands out performance vs. wins wise is DAL – another NFC East team – the
NFC East played the AFC East this season which certainly increased the strength
of their schedules.

Top 5 Offenses:

Saints: no
surprise here as the Saints were on cruise control offensively for most of
the season averaging a robust 34ppg on season, including 41ppg at
home.Brees was fabulous all season
with a 110 QBR, which was second in the NFL only behind Rodgers.Unfortunately for them they were not
able to secure the #2 seed, and will likely have to play 2 road games vs.
a top notch defense and potentially in very bad weather the next round if
they are to reach another Super Bowl this season.

Patriots:maybe
somewhat surprising NE checks in above GB here but it was driven by NE
having a slightly better running game, along with allowing less
sacks.This is the third straight
season the Patriots offense has ranked #2, and they also are the only team
that was ranked in top 5 last season offensively that repeated that feat
this season.Brady had a solid campaign,
and hopes to lead NE to their first playoff win since 2007 next weekend.

Packers:likely
MVP Aaron Rodgers led a potent Packers attack that was tops in the league
in scoring, and was 2nd in passing behind the Saints in my PR.GB is looking to become the first back
to back Super Bowl winner since the ’03-’04 Patriots, and the first NFC
team to accomplish the feat since the Dallas Cowboys in ’93-’94.

Panthers:maybe
surprising here, but Cam Newton had the best rookie season passing wise in
NFL history, and that always potent Panther rushing attack was in full
effect this season even with a new head coach.Things are looking up in Carolina with
Cam under center, and the NFC South is stacked with great QB’s in himself,
Brees and Ryan.

Texans:this
really shows just how well Houston was playing when Schaub was healthy
that they could build up such a strong rating they could hang on to a top
5 ranking even with a rookie under center for the last 6 games.With Schaub the offense was averaging
52, without him 41 for an average of 48.Arian Foster also played a big part in the #5 offense in the
NFL.Next season with a health
Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson the Texans will certainly be a force on
the offensive side of the ball.

Top 5 Defenses:

Ravens: Baltimore
takes over the top spot for the first time in at least 3 seasons as they
ranked in the single digits every category I track besides INT where they
were #17, and time of possession where they checked in at #10.Can their offense step up to match the
defense in the playoffs is the only question – one we have been asking for
quite some time now and the resounding answer always seems to be no. This season they could draw a big break
if Houston beats Cincinnati at home Saturday having to face the
Schaub-less Texans – really tough to see TJ Yates going into Baltimore’s
rowdy loud stadium and come out with a win.However, if CIN was to beat HOU that
would likely set up a third matchup with PIT this year – whom they already
beat twice during the regular season.We all know the saying it’s tough to beat a team three times in one
season – that will really be put to the test and would be a great game to
watch as a fan.

Texans: the
media was very late on the Houston defense, but this model wasn’t.Houston held the top spot defensively
for the entire season starting with their Wk1 pounding of the Manning-less
Colts thru the final week of the regular season.If Houston is to do anything in the
playoffs the defense will have to play at an extremely high level.Similar to BAL in the sense they also
only ranked outside the top ten in two categories: INT #13 and conversions
allowed #14.

Steelers:third
straight AFC team at the top of the defensive rankings is the always solid
and steady Pittsburgh Steelers.This season the pass defense really set the tone as they were
ranked #1 in yards per pass attempt, yards passing, and gain per offensive
play.They will certainly be a very
tough matchup for the offensively challenged Broncos this Sunday in
Denver.

Niners: the
surprise team of the season, SF made a lot of progress under first year HC
Jim Harbaugh, none more than a defense that was stifling and led SF to
their first NFC West division title since 2002.This year that defense was led by a
smothering run defense that ranked #1 or #2 in the 4 rushing stats I track
for this system.

Jets: last year’s top defense fell 4 spots in 2011 as
the Jets had a disappointing season missing the playoffs following back to
back AFC Championship game appearances.The driver behind their fall was the rushing part of the game on
both sides of the ball.Pass
defense wise they were still one of the best units in the NFL led by CB Darrelle
Revis.

Top Over-Achievers
Record wise

Cardinals:Arizona
made headlines this summer signing QB Kevin Kolb along with adding stud CB
Patrick Peterson in the draft; all that didn’t lead to much of an
improvement performance wise as they only rose from #32 to #27 – but still
upped their win total by 3 to 8-8.

Titans: surprisingly QB Matt Hasselbeck had a fine
season for the Titans, but the disappointing year RB Chris Johnson had
following his big contract signing led TEN towards the bottom of the
league performance wise.TEN
checked in at #25 but won 9 games – for comparison purposes PHI was #5 but
only won 8, and a typical team rated #25 is about 5.5-10.5 – you can see
why they are #2 on the list of over-achievers this season.

Chiefs:KC was the
darling story of 2010 but things soured very quickly in 2011 following a
slow start to the season.HC Todd Haley
was canned late in the season, QB Matt Cassel and RB Jamal Charles went
down and KC struggled for most of the season.KC was #24 performance wise but managed
to win 7 games.Last season KC was
#6 and went 10-6.

Top Under-Achievers
Record wise

Eagles:the
Dream Team as they were coined by backup QB Vince Young prior to the
season left many Philly fans angry as the 2011 campaign came to an end.This despite rating #7 in both offense
and defense, and a #5 overall rating.Outside DAL, the other 9 teams in the top 11 all won double digit
games – some of their struggles was due to a tough schedule for sure – as
that is a common denominator with DAL as well – but clearly the Birds
underachieved this season and are looking forward to a fresh start in 2012.Urgency from the beginning of the season
will be critical.

Cowboys:another
NFC East team, DAL checks in at #7 in the ratings sandwiched between two
playoff teams SF and ATL – but a tough schedule and critical early season
losses including a couple blown 4th quarter leads came back to
haunt DAL this season.Jason
Garrett certainly appears to be learning on the job and DAL fans can only
hope his decision making improves in 2012.

That will end the first installment of about five we will
put together covering the 2011 NFL Regular Season.Make sure to stop by the website and check
out our NFL plays for the Wild Card Round as we have been profitable the last 6
weeks of the regular season, and look to make it 7 straight starting Saturday
with a pair of NFL Wild Card matchups.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.