000
FXUS63 KARX 310453
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A WEAK SHORTWAVETROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN. A CUMULUS FIELD AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER AND PROVIDES THE
SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY IMPACT
TAYLOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER PERSISTING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL /NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON
BAY...WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ON FRIDAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM12 IS SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS COULD CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH
SOME LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA. THIS
SEEM A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE. THE GFS SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. IT
APPEARS THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SHEAR IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS...WITH STRONGER SHEAR DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH OF THE BEST CAPE. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE
1300 TO 2500 J/K RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING ...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THEN SLIDE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THE
TROUGH THEN SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH LOWER 70S
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MISSOURI THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. THE WEST WINDS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION GETS MIXED OUT. LOOK FOR GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THESE CALM DOWN IN THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE INVERSION REDEVELOPS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04