Die ontwikkeling van 'n betaalbaarheidstudie vir winkelsentrums

Abstract:

The hypothesis stated is that the possibility to successfully develop relatively small shopping centres; the neighbourhood and community centre type, may be enhanced by using a scientifically designed, feasibility study-model. By subjecting the data, utilized in the model to probability techniques and sensitivity analyses, it is possible to obtain more accurate indications of the final outcome of the intended result. The compilation of a profitability study requires that certain choices and decisions be made on the part of the developer. Various options must be weighed up against each other and actions should be taken which will maximize the expected proceeds of the intended development over the longer term. The uncertainty, attached to each possible outcome and the risk that the development will not realise the expected return on capital may be minimized by following an analytical approach in respect of complex decisions. The analytical approach may, in short, be divided into two subdivisions, namely: description of the problem and the enunciation of the method of choosing between the alternatives. A feasibility study is a method of describing the problem and of quantifying the information and assumptions (the inputs) used. The different options and combinations are then compared mathematically (the model). Finally the possible outcomes of the different options are compared (the outputs). Deterministic methods of evaluation of a development, for example effecting a feasibility study, to not take the risks attached to the development into account. When a feasibility study to determine the potential profitability of the development is done, the following variables are normally known: cost of land, gross area of building, rentals and operating expenses. Such variables may vary between limits and have an influence on the calculated rate of return. In effecting possibility studies, certain deterministic values are allocated to the variables and the effect of uncertainties are ignored. The reason why risk must be taken into account, is that the profitability of the development is not necessarily reflected by an unrepeated calculation of the profitability. This will be applicable especially when the exogenous variables which are taken into account, are uncertain. The result will then be more descriptive and useful in probability terms than in absolute terms. On the other hand, probalistic simulation models permit uncertainties to be treated explicitly and any or all of the variable factors input to the model are represented, not by known single factors, but are modelled as probability distributions. The Monte Carlo simulation method is one such procedure which allows probabilities to be included in such analysis. The Monte Carlo technique allows the sampling of a large number of possible solutions to discover the optimal solution in the sample and the range of possible values within that solution space, gives the known probabilities of individual values occuring. It is now possible to do a sensitivity analysis in respect of one or more of the variables. Any of the variables may potentially be amended and compared with the change in the return on capital. The risk which the developer continuously faces, is lying in the extent to which the actual returns of the development may deviate from the expected returns in terms of the feasibility study. By using a scientifically designed feasibility study model, the developer can increase the possibility of an accurate prediction. By subjecting the variables of the feasibility study to a sensitivity analysis and simulation techniques, the limits to uncertainties may be established.