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Polio has shown over the past decade that it is a disease that won't die easily. Research by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine -- which has established a system designed to reduce refusals to be vaccinated -- finds that, in order to eradicate the last 1% of known cases of the disease, the developing world must: better integrate social and political factors into assessments; find out what is driving resistance to vaccination; and design and monitor strategies to better enable people to feel ownership of their immunization programs.

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The Syrian civil war is causing a resurgence in polio cases, with few doctors left to give vaccinations. If refugees are carrying the virus, there's a likelihood of the disease spreading. "This is not only a danger for the Syrians ... it is a danger for Lebanon and Jordan and Turkey and Egypt and the rest of the world because the refugees will bring it out," says Kristalina Georgieva, EU commissioner for international cooperation, humanitarian aid and crisis response.

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative has launched an emergency action plan to boost immunization against polio in Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the disease is endemic. "If eradication fails, we are going to see an huge and vicious upsurge of this disease with consequences that it is very difficult even to foresee right now," said Bruce Aylward of the World Health Organization, who added that some vaccination campaigns have been halted because of funding shortfalls.

India has made great strides against polio through persistent vaccination programs and stands on the verge of eradicating the disease, Indian Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad says. India is one of only four countries where the disease remains endemic, and has reported only one confirmed case so far this year.

A drop-off in vaccinations against polio in six states in northern Nigeria has resulted in a resurgence of the disease, threatening to reverse last year's near-eradication of the disease countrywide. "We have come too far in our fight against polio to contemplate a relapse. Complacency is probably the biggest danger that might jeopardize success in eradicating polio," deputy head of UNICEF for Nigeria, Jacques Boyer, told a gathering of traditional and religious leaders Tuesday.

The number of reported polio cases in India has dropped to only one in 2011, raising hopes that billions of dollars of investments in vaccination campaigns in recent years may have helped bring the country to the verge of eradicating the disease. Around 170 million children a year receive the polio vaccine, and recent testing of water samples from high-risk areas such as the slums of Mumbai have found no presence of the virus. A consortium of groups, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Rotary International, WHO and UNICEF, are targeting the elimination of polio by 2013.