Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Friday, 18 September 2009

A continuation of my last post really, but over the past couple of days, some more examples of how laying at low odds can be extremely rewarding. I'm watching the Sheffield derby as I write, but have no financial interest in the game having missed the first half. Sheffield United were 3-0 up and a massive, well, to me it's massive, £268,630 was backed at either 1.01 or 1.02. Given that the game is a local derby, and that Sheffield Wednesday would most likely return for the second-half after an ear-bashing, was this value for the backers? Even if United do win, as it looks like they will, one goal for Wednesday was enough to elevate the price to 1.1 or so. The second made it 1.36 or so. I noticed a baseball game earlier in the week where the home team was down by two with a man on base but down to their last out. Money was trying to back the leaders at 1.01 with an excellent home-run hitter coming to bat... one swing of the bat later and the game is tied and going into extra innings, and yes, I DID have a (small) interest in that one. Later the same day I layed another team up by 4 in the 8th inning again at 1.01. The bottom of the 8th, and the first two got on base, and the price shot up to 1.11. They ended up losing 4-3, but the point is that the downside of laying at 1.01 or 1.02 is very small.

2 comments:

You can win both backing or laying at low odds. It comes back to your old favourite, value.

Womens tennis in particular seems to offer plenty of situations to lay at low odds. I'm regularly banging on about the mental fragility of numerous WTA players, and turnarounds are quite regular.Alternatively, I've no problem with placing the odd back at 1.02 and 1.03 if I think I'm getting value, usually on soccer.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.