Monday, October 22, 2012

OBAMA-ROMNEY: WHO CAN BETTER MANAGE THE SAME OLD WORLD?

The third
and the last US Presidential debate, a
fortnight before the polling day, was held on the morning of October 23,2012
(Indian Standard Time).

2. It was supposed to have been devoted almost
exclusively to foreign policy, but economic issues kept intruding into the
debate quite often and sometimes in a substantive manner.

3.Even before the debate, it was known that Mr.Mitt
Romney, the Republican challenger, is weak on foreign policy issues. He did
remarkably well in the first debate which was totally devoted to economic and
social issues. He, therefore, kept bringing in economic issues in context and
out of context and President Barack Obama found himself forced to react to him
in kind.

4. On purely foreign policy issues, Mr.Obama did
much better than Mr.Romney, but even then he could not cross the 50 per cent
mark in terms of support from the sample voters ( 48 per cent) polled by the
CNN after the debate.

5. After the conclusion of all the three debates,
it is evident that while Mr.Romney did overwhelmingly better than Mr.Obama in
the first debate on the economic issues, Mr.Obama did better than Mr.Romney in
the secondand third debates devoted to
a mix of the economic and foreign policy issues----but not overwhelmingly so.
The election campaign seems to be moving slowly in favour of Mr.Obama but not
yet in a decisive manner.

6. The Republican camp has reasons to be
disappointed by the performance ofMr.Romney in the second and third debates. Mr.Romney is bruised, but not
yet beaten beyond recovery.

7.It was evident that both the candidates came to
the debate with the belief that foreign policy issues may not be crucial in influencing
the as yet undecided voters on the polling day. In their calculation, it is
economic issues that will influence their preferences. Both the candidates
were, therefore, looking for an opportunity to bring in the state of the US
economy even while debating the state of the world. As a result, the debate
became a bit repetitive and stale.

8. While discussing China, one would have expected
them to dwell on questions such as the rapid modernisation of the Chinese Armed
Forces, the possible threats to freedom of navigation from the Chinese Navy,
China’s cyber and space warfare capabilities etc.

9. Surprisingly, none of these questions were
raised in a substantive manner. Instead, they focussed on China’s perceived currency
manipulation, its continued violation of intellectual property rights and the
threat posed to the US industries from their Chinese counterparts. This showed
that while purely foreign policy issues like West Asia, Iran, and the
Af-Pakdecisions preoccupy their minds,
the impact of foreign policy on the state of the economy was an equally
worrisome issue. The spectre of a worsening economy came in the way of the
formulation of a clear vision---whether in respect of economic or foreign
policies.

10. When the three debates are taken as whole, it
is clear that a fortnight before the polling day, the campaign is shaping up to
be a contest between the lack-lustre record of an incumbent President and the
lack-lustre policy vision of his challenger.

11.This has been a lack-lustre election
campaign---with no exciting vision for the future articulated by either
Mr.Obama or Mr.Romney. What they were debating was not how they would usher in
a brave new world, but how they would better manage the same old world that they
have inherited. In the absence of exciting new ideas and new visions for the
future, an incumbent even with a lack- lustre record may do better than a
lack-lustre challenger, who tries to play it safe and is not a risk-taker.

12. There is no reason for us to feel disappointed
that India did not figure in the debate even once. Even the European Union,
Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN and Australia did not figure even in passing.
This is because these are areas of future opportunities for US policy-making.
Today’s debate was mostly about areas of present concern to the US.

13. This may please be read in continuation of my
article of October 7,2012, titled “Romney’s Ambivalence on India” at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2012/10/romneys-ambivalence-on-india.html
( 23-10-12)