PETER LUCAS: Dem convention nod is Grossman's to lose

Look for state Treasurer Steve Grossman to come out a winner when the Democrats meet in convention in Worcester Saturday to endorse a candidate for governor.

Grossman, serving his first term as treasurer, appears to be too far out in front in the delegate count to have anyone overtake him, including Attorney General Martha Coakley.

"He has put all his eggs in one basket," one key Beacon Hill insider said, "and that is to win the convention."

Coakley, who is ahead of all five Democrats running for governor in the public opinion polls, is lagging behind Grossman in the delegate count but will get enough delegate votes to enable her to challenge Grossman in the September Democrat primary.

The other three candidates are Donald Berwick, former head of the nation's Medicaid and Medicare program; Joe Avellone, a biopharmaceutical executive; and Juliette Kayyem, a former state and federal homeland security official.

Under Democrat Party rules, a candidate for governor must get 15 percent of the vote on the first ballot to be eligible to run in the primary. The rule, in effect, prohibits subsequent wheeling and dealing by power brokers.

In addition to Grossman and Coakley, it is expected that at least one of the trailing three candidates -- Berwick -- will get the necessary 15 percent and make the cut.

As a matter of fact, Berwick, a progressive's progressive, could do much better than many expect because the convention is made up of many delegates who are as liberal as he is.

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In the past, where the rules provided for subsequent votes, a candidate like Grossman, with delegate votes to spare, would have been able to throw enough votes Kayyem's way, for instance, to get her on the ballot and take women voters away from Coakley in a three-person primary.

But those days are over. The Democrat convention these days is run by process progressives who would object. In addition, not only do the rules make this practically impossible, unless it is done on a first-ballot blitzkrieg -- which is unlikely -- the politician doing it would be stigmatized as a political manipulator and "insider."

Liberals despise political insiders unless, of course, they are the ones on the inside doing the manipulating.

The interesting thing about Grossman's candidacy is that he has not only won the support of the liberals and progressives who dominate the organized party structure and the convention, he does quite well with the Beacon Hill power structure.

Although the two factions do not see eye to eye on many issues or on party rules, many have joined together to support Grossman at the convention, and probably in the primary as well.

For instance, Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, a former veteran member of the Legislature who is no fan of Coakley's, is tilting toward Grossman, as are many members of the House and Senate. Walsh controls some 300 delegate votes, by far the largest voting bloc at the convention.

It is not as though they are overly impressed with Grossman. Rather, they are antagonistic toward Coakley. Beacon Hill regulars view Coakley as a political opportunist who has attempted to enhance her career by going after legislators and other political people on questionable behavior that she could be accused of herself.

For instance, she launched an investigation into the alleged rigged hiring at the patronage-laden Probation Department -- since taken over by the U.S. attorney -- while she pushed to get several of her own campaign contributors and supporters hired. She said the people she recommended were qualified.

Legislators also resented her seeking to jail former state Rep. Brian Wallace of South Boston for violating state campaign-finance laws when he could not properly document expenditures he made for his 2008 re-election campaign. A judge refused to find Wallace guilty, saying it was a civil matter and not criminal. He was fined. Legislators on Beacon Hill may not like this, but the public eats it up.

However, Coakley, at the same time, was having problems with her own campaign finances, like illegally using federal campaign funds left over from her Senate campaign to support her run for governor. She recently agreed to pay a $24,000 fine to settle those campaign violations.

Nevertheless, Coakley is still considered to be the most popular candidate in the polls among the Democrats running for governor. And she still will be leading the public opinion polls even finishing second at the convention. The only danger facing her is if she drops to third place behind Berwick. Now that would be a shocker.

Peter Lucas' political column appears Tuesday and Friday. Email him at luke1825@aol.com.

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