Coffee drops on improving Brazil weather reports

General Comments: Futures closed mixed on reduced production estimates from Brazil and ideas that more production cuts are coming in the US due to the greening disease. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showers are possible late this week.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near normal this weekend. Citrus BR estimated orange production in Brazil at 268.4 million boxes, down 30.4% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 161.00 and 178.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 140.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 160.00 July.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move on reports of big production in April from Brazil. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. They got some big production and processing estimates for April on Monday. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are mixed, but weak, for the short term. UNICA said that Brazil crushed 41 million tons of Sugarcane and produced 1.69 million tons of Sugar. Both amounts are almost triple those of a year ago.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1755 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 476.00, 473.00, and 470.00 August, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 496.00 August.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading after the big down moves last week. It was another quiet news day, although there were wire reports of some water damage problems for some certified stocks for LIFFE in Antwerp. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid-crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Reports indicate that bean sizes are small due to the heat and dry weather seen earlier in the year. The weather now is good, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid-crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.920 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2285 July, with resistance at 2370, 2390, and 2400 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 and 1465 July. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1565, 1580, and 1590 July.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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