^ The Bobcats started the season 7-5 and everybody thought Mike Dunlap had a good shot at COY.

They have gone 5-35 since.

That's because they're the Bobcats. You are speaking to a team's progression, compared to a guy's individual impact on a team, which is already fairly talented.
Anyways, yes, it is a small sample size, but Rudy Gay is a talented, elite player. It's not Linsanity-esque... We know what he is capable of doing, and the potential.

^ The Bobcats started the season 7-5 and everybody thought Mike Dunlap had a good shot at COY.

They have gone 5-35 since.

And lets look at their opponents during that stretch:

Fri, Nov 2 vs Indiana W 90-89

Sat, Nov 3 @ Dallas L 126-99

Wed, Nov 7 vs Phoenix L 117-110

Fri, Nov 9 @ New Orleans L 107-99

Sat, Nov 10 vs Dallas W 101-97 OT

Tue, Nov 13 vs Washington W 92-76

Wed, Nov 14 @ Minnesota W 89-87

Sat, Nov 17 vs Memphis L 94-87

Mon, Nov 19 vs Milwaukee W 102-98

Wed, Nov 21 vs Toronto W 98-97

Fri, Nov 23 vs Atlanta L 101-91

Sat, Nov 24 @ Washington W 108-106 OT

Indiana struggled to start year at 3-6 and have since been very impressive.
Dallas x2, NO, PHX, WSH x 2, Toronto (horrible to start year and blown call at end of game), MIN (injuries) have all proven to be weak teams this season.

I think it is safe to say it was an easy schedule to start the year with 8 of 12 games at home as well.

Raps have gone 5-2 with 6 games vs. teams +.500 including 2-0 on the road where teams were combined 40-13.

Indiana struggled to start year at 3-6 and have since been very impressive.
Dallas x2, NO, PHX, WSH x 2, Toronto (horrible to start year and blown call at end of game), MIN (injuries) have all proven to be weak teams this season.

I think it is safe to say it was an easy schedule to start the year with 8 of 12 games at home as well.

Raps have gone 5-2 with 6 games vs. teams +.500 including 2-0 on the road where teams were combined 40-13.

Not to mention Rudy Gay came into a MID-SEASON trade, and played the day he arrived in Toronto. The dude had absolutely not idea what they were doing on the court, yet he was able to help the team blow out the Los Angeles Clippers (with out with CP3, it's still an individually talented team),

Again, my point was size of sample matters and snap judgments are bad. Certainly, I'd agree with you the Raptors have done better than the Bobcats started and I wouldn't expect the Raptors to go 5-35 in their next forty games, but that wasn't the point. I guess I shouldn't have used such a cheap example, but my point still stands. I'm not saying Rudy Gay is terrible for Toronto; I'm simply not making any judgment until he's been here longer. A month, two months... then you can make more substantial claims. But for now, I'm not getting too high or too low and taking a wait-and-see approach.

Rudy's fg% should come back up, but I think people are highly, highly overrating his "clutch ability"... nevermind that I think "clutch" is a statistical anomaly anyway based on small sample size and every possession matters equally.

One year (might've been their championship year), the Mavs were winning virtually every close game and everybody was talking up how good they were in the clutch and how focused they were and how money Dirk was and the next season, they were right back to being around .500 in close games.

Relax. It's been seven games into Rudy's career with the Raptors.

I dont know how you can say people are overrating his clutch play. It wasnt like he was traded to the Raptors and started sinking last second shots all of a sudden. He's had multiple game-winners even before he became a Raptor, and precisely the reason why the Raptors acquired him. Saying JL3 should be a starter because he's been saving the Raptors asses in the past few games, now thats overrating.

Isnt that still good? .500 in close games? you win half and lose half? When you say theyre "good" in the clutch, would your definition of good mean winning all those close games? I think thats "overrating" it a little bit dont you think?

And didnt Dirk just hit a couple of crucial baskets a couple of days ago against, i think Houston? And Portland? He's still a clutch guy.

Not to mention Rudy Gay came into a MID-SEASON trade, and played the day he arrived in Toronto. The dude had absolutely not idea what they were doing on the court, yet he was able to help the team blow out the Los Angeles Clippers (with out with CP3, it's still an individually talented team),

This was when I knew I was wrong about Gay and that all the articles were bullshit. I don't care about his shot selection (ok, I do, but I don't as much as I thought I would), because his bball IQ is off the charts, his leadership is far far FAR better than advertised, and those things make him a solid team contributor on both ends of the court at pretty much all times...he could still stand to improve his shot selection a bit, or maybe just do some squats so his legs are under him on those 3s, but other than that there isn't one part of his game that is really weak.

As a team, we have never had our best talent also be our leader. Not in the Carter years (Oak, AD, Willis, Alvin), not in the Bosh years (TJ, Garbo, AP, Jose)...and you can see what a difference it makes, because it's so much better when the team can follow the lead of the best player on a nightly basis, instead of trying to find a way to get the best player to follow his teammates (or coach).

This was when I knew I was wrong about Gay and that all the articles were bullshit. I don't care about his shot selection (ok, I do, but I don't as much as I thought I would), because his bball IQ is off the charts, his leadership is far far FAR better than advertised, and those things make him a solid team contributor on both ends of the court at pretty much all times...he could still stand to improve his shot selection a bit, or maybe just do some squats so his legs are under him on those 3s, but other than that there isn't one part of his game that is really weak.

As a team, we have never had our best talent also be our leader. Not in the Carter years (Oak, AD, Willis, Alvin), not in the Bosh years (TJ, Garbo, AP, Jose)...and you can see what a difference it makes, because it's so much better when the team can follow the lead of the best player on a nightly basis, instead of trying to find a way to get the best player to follow his teammates (or coach).

Rudy Gay still has potential too, the guy does so many things well - rebounding, defense - when shots aren't falling on a night, or he's struggling in a period of time in a game.

1. "Clutch" is about more than just the final shot. Every possession matters equally.
2. Confirmation bias. People are more likely to remember the memorable (hitting a game winner) than the unmemorable (missing a game winner), obviously. What percentage of game winning attempts do you think Kobe has made? Or even Jordan?
3. I don't really believe you need one go-to guy at the end of games anyway; you just need players willing to find the best possible shot. Better the open guy in the corner than the superstar up top shooting a fadeaway over two guys. Team execution > hero ball any day. Now, of course, I'd prefer a great play call leading to an open shot for a superstar in his spot because that's gunna be high percentage.

No? .500 in close games is average. Every team in the NBA can play so if they've played basically even in the first 43 minutes, they're basically playing at the same level on that particular night. At that point, it should basically be a coin flip. Kind of hard to understand at first and I had to think about it, but logically, it makes sense.

re: Dirk, again, that's my point. When's the last time he missed a "clutch shot"? Do you remember? Probably more recently than you think.

In my opinion, clutch, as most commonly defined, is a narrative/story that journalists and newspapers can sell to sports fan, nothing more, nothing less.

Again, my point was size of sample matters and snap judgments are bad. Certainly, I'd agree with you the Raptors have done better than the Bobcats started and I wouldn't expect the Raptors to go 5-35 in their next forty games, but that wasn't the point. I guess I shouldn't have used such a cheap example, but my point still stands. I'm not saying Rudy Gay is terrible for Toronto; I'm simply not making any judgment until he's been here longer. A month, two months... then you can make more substantial claims. But for now, I'm not getting too high or too low and taking a wait-and-see approach.

That is fair.

I admit I might be easily impressed and excited about the first stretch of basketball where the Raps have beaten quality opponents in 4 years.

1. "Clutch" is about more than just the final shot. Every possession matters equally.
2. Confirmation bias. People are more likely to remember the memorable (hitting a game winner) than the unmemorable (missing a game winner), obviously. What percentage of game winning attempts do you think Kobe has made? Or even Jordan?
3. I don't really believe you need one go-to guy at the end of games anyway; you just need players willing to find the best possible shot. Better the open guy in the corner than the superstar up top shooting a fadeaway over two guys. Team execution > hero ball any day. Now, of course, I'd prefer a great play call leading to an open shot for a superstar in his spot because that's gunna be high percentage.

No? .500 in close games is average. Every team in the NBA can play so if they've played basically even in the first 43 minutes, they're basically playing at the same level on that particular night. At that point, it should basically be a coin flip. Kind of hard to understand at first and I had to think about it, but logically, it makes sense.

re: Dirk, again, that's my point. When's the last time he missed a "clutch shot"? Do you remember? Probably more recently than you think.

In my opinion, clutch, as most commonly defined, is a narrative/story that journalists and newspapers can sell to sports fan, nothing more, nothing less.

I don't know man, don't think every person here thinks clutch is just hitting last shots. Rudy has been clutch in pretty much all his games here. In fact, I would say his least "clutch" performance was in Denver, because like you say, it matters for 48 minutes. Yeah, he hit the game-winner...but with that foul trouble we lost control of the tempo and really had to fight to maintain a close game.

I think of clutch probably as you do...as a performance type where you lead your team to a win, very clearly, both through tangible and intangible impact....Last night, for example, Rudy had a terrible night against the Knicks scoring-wise....but he did lots of other things to help the team win. This is when you start to think you've got a clutch player, because he's always trying to make sure he's having an impact. He got boards, led our team in assists (only 4, but really took it on himself to attract attention and move the ball, especially with Lowry out), and along with Fields and Demar, played amazing D on Melo for most of the night....So though Rudy Gay was struggling with his shot, team execution was still better with him on the floor on both ends, I found. Even with him struggling, having him out there made such a difference compared to a lineup of AA, Fields and Demar, who all had strong nights as well.

I think Rudy's late game value mostly stems from the fact that unlike DeMar, Andrea, and so many others, he can get his own shot off consistently. That, combined with his intangibles, defensive contributions, and double team attractions make him extremely valuable. I expect his FG% to increase slightly, but am not expecting it to every be greater than ~47%.

It would be nice if Rudy could shoot close to 50%, and if he could, he'd be a perennial All-star. But that doesn't mean his not extremely valuable, and a big boost to this team.

1. "Clutch" is about more than just the final shot. Every possession matters equally.
2. Confirmation bias. People are more likely to remember the memorable (hitting a game winner) than the unmemorable (missing a game winner), obviously. What percentage of game winning attempts do you think Kobe has made? Or even Jordan?
3. I don't really believe you need one go-to guy at the end of games anyway; you just need players willing to find the best possible shot. Better the open guy in the corner than the superstar up top shooting a fadeaway over two guys. Team execution > hero ball any day. Now, of course, I'd prefer a great play call leading to an open shot for a superstar in his spot because that's gunna be high percentage.

No? .500 in close games is average. Every team in the NBA can play so if they've played basically even in the first 43 minutes, they're basically playing at the same level on that particular night. At that point, it should basically be a coin flip. Kind of hard to understand at first and I had to think about it, but logically, it makes sense.

re: Dirk, again, that's my point. When's the last time he missed a "clutch shot"? Do you remember? Probably more recently than you think.

In my opinion, clutch, as most commonly defined, is a narrative/story that journalists and newspapers can sell to sports fan, nothing more, nothing less.

1. Then why did you specifically mention Gay's cluth play being overrated? Im confused. And i didnt say cluth only pertains to the last shot. Didnt i say Dirk being a clutch guy because he's hitting crucial shots?

2. Confirmation Bias? For real? I think as a Raptor fan i had more than my fair share of agonizing through missed opportunities due to missed last second shots. Of course i cant name all of them, but the double overtime loss to the nets in london, double OT loss to Utah, to name a few. I remember the losses just as much as the wins. Actually, people probably tend to remember the losses more because they sting. I'm not really sure about Kobe or Jordan, but i would probably say theyve had more wins because of their clutch play rather than losses.

3.what a safe answer. you want team ball but wouldnt mind a superstar going iso either. blech.
So you're saying, with the game on the line, infront of 18,00 screaming people, you'd rather have Ross, a rookie taking an open jumper rather than Gay having the ball, whos been in the same situation a bazzilion times? Well then, i guess pressure and experience is way overrated then.

Im lost on the .500 argument. Lets just put it this way, if the Raptors went even close to .500 somewhat around the 10-12 games they lost because of not being able to perform in the clutch, wouldnt they be right up there in the playoff hunt?

re Dirk. You maybe right, he might have missed a crucial shot in the past couple of games, but does that instantly degrade his ability to close out games, or to keep within the discussion, a clutch player? of course not. the next time the game is on the line, you know theyre putting the ball in his hands.

And i respect that. But in my opinion, being able to perform in the clutch is a highly prized commodity in the NBA. Thats why the CP3s, MJs, Kobes, Wades, Millers, Magics, Durants, Pierces are very much revered. And the O'Neals, Jabbars, McHales, Garnetts couldnt get championships on their own.

So you're saying, with the game on the line, infront of 18,00 screaming people, you'd rather have Ross, a rookie taking an open jumper rather than Gay having the ball, whos been in the same situation a bazzilion times? Well then, i guess pressure and experience is way overrated then.

Michael Jordan had no problems passing the ball to a wide open John Paxson for the last shot. You can't get much more superstar than MJ and more average than John Paxson. Paxson was a very good jump shooter and was not afraid to hoist one up late in the game; he's clutch in that sense.

If Ross has a higher percentage shot than Gay and he is not afraid to take it, he should take it.

Players who can create their own shots end up shooting a higher proportion of last shots than jump shooters because they generally can get a shot off, even a bad one of necessary, within the time remaining. It's not just a question of the percentage of making the shot, it's also about how likely you will get a shot off in time.

Michael Jordan had no problems passing the ball to a wide open John Paxson for the last shot. You can't get much more superstar than MJ and more average than John Paxson. Paxson was a very good jump shooter and was not afraid to hoist one up late in the game; he's clutch in that sense.

If Ross has a higher percentage shot than Gay and he is not afraid to take it, he should take it.

Players who can create their own shots end up shooting a higher proportion of last shots than jump shooters because they generally can get a shot off, even a bad one of necessary, within the time remaining. It's not just a question of the percentage of making the shot, it's also about how likely you will get a shot off in time.

This is (exactly) why I don't agree with the bashing Lebron has received for passing the ball in end of game situations; he tends to get someone a higher percentage shot than he has himself while he does all the creating.

Michael Jordan had no problems passing the ball to a wide open John Paxson for the last shot. You can't get much more superstar than MJ and more journeyman than John Paxson. Paxson was a very good jump shooter and was not afraid to hoist one up late in the game; he's clutch in that sense.

If Ross has a higher percentage shot than Gay and he is not afraid to take it, he should take it.

Players who can create their own shots end up shooting a higher proportion of last shots than jump shooters because they generally can get a shot off, even a bad one of necessary, within the time remaining. It's not just a question of the percentage of making the shot, it's also about how likely you will get a shot off in time.

First of all, Jordan didnt pass the ball to paxson. Jordan got into heavy traffic and passed the ball to a wide open Horace Grant, but instead of going up for the 2 which i have no doubt he wouldve made, he at the last second decided to pass it out to Paxson. The thing is, if the shot didnt go in, everybody wouldve come down on Grant because he had the sure 2, but maybe because they were in phoenix so they wanted to get it over with instead of going into OT. But bottomline is, Jordan had the ball, they put the ball in his hands. It was a botched play. And im fine with an open guy hitting the shot on a botched play. But you dont go into the last seconds of the game setting up a play to intentionally find an open man to take the last shot. Too risky. Even when Jordan passed it to Kerr to for the game winning shot. Bottomline is, Jordan had the ball in his hands, he drove and passed at the last second because he couldnt make a fair attempt.

Im fine with Ross taking the last shot if it was a botched play. But you cant run a late game play and hopefully a man will get freed up. What if Aaron Gray was the undefended player? Would you be comfortable giving him a perimeter shot? Of course you give it to your best player, and let him work to get a decent shot. If he cant then thats the time to pass.