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What’s next for Kasich after topping Trump in Ohio?

View SlideshowRequest to buy this photoKyle Robertson | DispatchIt was a festive atmosphere indeed as John Kasich addressed his supporters Tuesday night during a celebratory event at Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, Ohio. Behind the governor were his wife, Karen, and daughter Reese.

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BEREA, Ohio — After coming through on his guarantee to beat Donald Trump in Tuesday’s Ohio primary, John Kasich contends it’s a whole new campaign for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination.

Waving a pair of clenched fists to the pulsating rhythms of AC/DC’s "Thunderstruck" — the same tune played when Kasich won re-election in 2014 — he veritably pranced onto the stage and proclaimed his love for his Ohio supporters.

As an exultant crowd of hundreds chanted “Ka-sich! Ka-sich!” he proclaimed, “I want you to know something: We are going to go all the way to Cleveland and secure the Republican nomination.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after a devastating loss in his home state of Florida to Trump. Kasich backers are openly counting on a flow of Rubio backers — and perhaps donors — to join their cause.

In Palm Beach, Florida, Trump said he won the Sunshine State despite a multimillion-dollar barrage of ads against him that were “90 percent false … vicious … horrible” and the worst in the history of politics.

Along with Florida — like Ohio, a winner-take-all state — Trump took Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri, where he edged Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas by 0.2 percent.

Kyle Kondik, a former Ohioan now with the University of Virginia’s Center on Politics, said Kasich’s main accomplishment might have been preventing Trump from being able to clinch the nomination before the Republican National Convention this July in Cleveland.

“Kasich made it further than many thought, combining luck and skill to make it to the final three contenders. However, he is clearly the weakest of the final troika in terms of delegates and national name ID and support.”

With almost all votes counted, Kasich is leading Trump by 11 points, about 47 percent to 36 percent. Cruz had 13 percent and Rubio 3. Two candidates who had dropped out of the race split 1 percent: retired Dr. Ben Carson and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Today, Kasich travels to Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 26 — although he must overcome a challenge to his status on the ballot there.

On Friday, he visits Utah and Arizona, which both vote Tuesday.

Combined with Rubio’s withdrawal, both of Kasich’s main needs were fulfilled Tuesday, making it a three-person race.

Of course, Trump’s main challenger so far, Cruz, doesn’t see it that way.

The Texas senator noted that only he and Trump have a mathematical chance of winning enough delegates to sew up the nomination before the convention.

“Only one candidate has beaten Donald Trump over and over and over again,” said Cruz, citing his nine victories.

So with Kasich now having a single victory in the 30 contests so far, how does that translate into the 2016 Republican presidential nomination?

Kasich is counting on two factors.

One is the “to know me is to love me” presumption. Winning in Ohio and performing well last month in the New Hampshire primary indicates that the more people hear from Kasich, the better he does — although a third-place finish in oft-visited Michigan might counter that spin. Exit polls in Ohio and other states show late-deciding voters trend his way.

And Kasich is finally getting national attention to make his case in a campaign whose frenetic pace will slow during the next couple of months.

Two is the “only I can beat Hillary” rationale. Surveys show Trump and Cruz losing to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In contrast, Kasich runs best in trial heats of any Republican.

Make no mistake, this is more than a wish and a prayer; the Kasich team already is laying the groundwork to win a strenuously contested convention when Republicans gather about 15 miles from the site of his victory celebration. Tuesday night they announced the hiring of a quartet of nationally known operatives, including two who worked on opposite sides in the last contested GOP convention in 1976.

“The rules committee will be all powerful,” said Kasich’s top campaign strategist, John Weaver. That’s a 112-member panel chosen later this year by each state delegation that can decide, for example, how many ballots delegates must remained pledged to to support “their” candidate — if any.

Kasich will bid for the top spot even though he might remain behind both Trump and Cruz in the delegate count.

“This (a brokered convention) happened eight times before in American history, and six times the people who had the most delegates didn’t win their party’s nomination,” Weaver said.

“The grassroots delegates, activists, party leaders will make a decision about who the nominee is."

If Trump is short of a majority coming into the Cleveland gathering, he won’t get the party’s nod, Weaver predicted.

“A convention of Republicans will not nominate the man unless he has 1,237 delegates,” he said, citing the number needed to mathematically clinch the nomination.

And what’s Kasich’s argument at the convention?

“Why are we there? We’re there to nominate someone who can beat Hillary Clinton. There’s only one of the three who can beat Hillary Clinton. That’s a pretty powerful argument,” Weaver said.

“We already have national momentum. Our numbers are already going up across the country 5 to 15 points a state.”

And with the long-running competition to become the main competitor to Trump and Cruz finally settled, “No one will go to the convention anywhere near 1,237. Nowhere near. And we will have an experience that very few people can remember.”