Arctic Front Jan 10-11?

The next blast of serious winter cold may show up by early next week. The computer models began showing a frontal passage Jan 10-11 before New Year’s. The daily details have varied, but the overall trend remains fairly consistent. The steering flow is expected to buckle by Mon-Tue as shown on the map:

Above: ECMWF SFC/850 output for 6am Mon 10 Jan 2011

What is less dependable is the prospect of winter precipitation or not. The moisture supply and precipitation potential are in the murky zone right now. The models are in poor agreement on whether we’ll get rain (or snow), or whether it will just be very cold and dry.

Snow would be the most likely precipitation type given the expected coldness of the air, but we might just as well have blue skies and lows in the teens.

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