McCain +2. The problem with the tease is that their is not enough information to gauge the impact of a 10 pt drop in Palin's favs/unfavs. Without something to measure against (for instance, when her favs/unfavs went from +10 to +5 McCain's lead went from +5 to +3) it really is nothing more than guessing blindfolded. At least with more info one could make a more educated guess, not so much with the limited info provided.

Here is a guess that is NOT based on the tease but on a verified poll result PPP gave out today NC +2 Obama. I heard a noted specialist in Southern politics comment on how VA, FLA, and NC move in relation to one another as of 2008. Essentially, this expert said VA would poll 3 pts better for Dems than FLA and VA would poll 5 pts better for Dems than in NC. So since PPP pegs Obama at +2 in NC today, using this expert's formula Obama should be ahead in FLA by 4 pts.

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