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Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

Originally Posted by cincrazy

My main concerns with Hamilton are that he strikes out a ton, and hits a lot of lazy fly balls. He doesn't have a very short, compact swing where he's stinging line drives all over the place. Maybe he did in AAA, and perhaps he will develop it later on. I wouldn't read too much into his future after this entire YEAR, let alone after this first month. But I do think it may have been foolish of us as an organization to expect a huge contribution from him this year. He simply seems overmatched.

You're right to be concerned. It's early, so Hamilton might be able to turn things around but right now he's not making anything resembling consistent solid contact. Line Drive rate is at only 16.7%, his Fly Ball rate is at 46.7% and he keeps trying to bunt his way on but hasn't been good at it at all. His K rate (21.6%) is unlikely to go down. Right now, pitchers really don't have a reason to stop with a steady diet of fastballs early and often.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thats over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.
--Ted Williams

Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

Originally Posted by dougdirt

"doesn't present a great challenge for any pitcher that has skill"
"currently unable to hit fastballs or any breaking balls, where are we led to believe he can figure that out"
"If I were in Bryan Price's shoes, privately, I would be worrying that this experiment isn't going to work"

Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

I've seen Joey Votto with similarly bad swings when attempting to foul off a pitch. This one seems to only be worse because it was a bit of a 'too little, too late' give up swing on a clear third strike. It is hilariously bad if you just watch the GIF and imagine that as an intentional, full swing though.

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Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

I hate the small sample size card people are playing. It's not appropriate here simply by looking at his AAA season in 2013. There is over a season's worth of data showing that Billy Hamilton isn't ready to hit at the upper levels and the eye test verifies the data. Let's at least see if he can pass the test at AAA before we stick him at the top of the order to make out after out in hope that we'll get the occasional SB. He has 5 steals in 3 weeks and has been caught twice. That 71% success rate barely breaks even, so his steals are barely adding enough value to cover for his caught stealings let alone adding enough to make up for all the outs at the plate. At this point he's the typical dime-a-dozen fast guy who can cover CF and pinch run. He may be faster than most of those types, but it sure isn't showing up in his performance. Where are all those IF hits and forced errors I was being told we'd see?

If all we want out of him is to be a situational weapon who can PR and play late game defense, put him in that role and he can be pretty valuable and would help put the Reds over the top in some close games. Once he starts getting multiple PAs every day making all those outs, he becomes a drag on the team. If we want to give him PAs to develop his bat, it shouldn't be done in major league games. The Reds need to find a CF. Maybe it's a Skippy/Heisey platoon, I'd hoped for better though.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Billy's supporters pretty much acknowledge that he's a work in progress and this year will have growing pains, and we need to have some patience.

We all should be Hamilton supporters IMO. The kid is a rookie who is gonna have his ups and downs. And maybe more downs then ups in his initial year. But the window is definitely too small to be in any type of "opposition" to Hamilton, as to whether he will end up succeeding or not. That's yet to be determined.

I guess the question can be submitted..... "Would Hamilton be best served still being in AAA learning/maturing? Or taking your knocks while doing so at this level?

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Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

Originally Posted by GAC

We all should be Hamilton supporters IMO. The kid is a rookie who is gonna have his ups and downs. And maybe more downs then ups in his initial year. But the window is definitely too small to be in any type of "opposition" to Hamilton, as to whether he will end up succeeding or not. That's yet to be determined.

I guess the question can be submitted..... "Would Hamilton be best served still being in AAA learning/maturing? Or taking your knocks while doing so at this level?

Actually the question is would the 2014 reds be best served by Hamilton learning at AAA instead of making outs in major league games. The answer lies in whether or not you believe the Reds have a better alternative for CF. I think a Skippy/Heisey platoon would contribute more run production and the Reds would be better off without Hamilton in the line-up. There is still plenty for him to learn at AAA. There may be a time when he's mastered AAA and the only way for him to improve is to face major league pitching, but I don't think he's close to there yet, so the decision to put him in the line-up shouldn't be about his development, it should be about who gives the Reds the best chance to win. I don't think that's Hamilton at this point.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

the 2014 sample size is obviously to small, but lots of fans didnīt have a problem with the 2013 mlb sample size

I was part of a discussion that billy is (most likely) not mlb ready (looking at his 2013 minor league stats), the main argument against is was his great mlb performance in 2013. Now he has one game more under his belt in 2014 but the sample size is to small to jump to any conclusion (it is of course to small, but same in 2013)

they thought he is ready and now they should give him time to prove it (atleast until june) but move out of the leadoff spot please! put bp at #1 (he canīt hit dp => win-win) and bruce 3, rocco, frazier, ludwick (one of those guys who is on a hot streak) ar 4 and it looks better than it is right now..

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein

Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

Originally Posted by tomnuetten

the 2014 sample size is obviously to small, but lots of fans didnīt have a problem with the 2013 mlb sample size

I was part of a discussion that billy is (most likely) not mlb ready (looking at his 2013 minor league stats), the main argument against is was his great mlb performance in 2013. Now he has one game more under his belt in 2014 but the sample size is to small to jump to any conclusion (it is of course to small, but same in 2013)

they thought he is ready and now they should give him time to prove it (atleast until june) but move out of the leadoff spot please! put bp at #1 (he canīt hit dp => win-win) and bruce 3, rocco, frazier, ludwick (one of those guys who is on a hot streak) ar 4 and it looks better than it is right now..

I don't think they really thought he was ready. They tried to get alternatives and failed. Now they are selling Billy's flash to cover and sell tickets. He's not helping the win and loss record and there is nothing in his 2013 season to indicate he would unless his role is Pinch Runner like he was used at the end of the year in the majors.

And before anyone goes touting his improvement from first half of 2013 to the second half, look again. He had a hot month to prop up his second half, but he was as bad in August as he was early in the year.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

The other thing that leads to the swings like the one mentioned is the fact that he is still learning to be a switch hitter. Anyone know why they went down the path of making him a switch hitter anyways? Seems like a bad move so late in his career, when he is at the AAA/MLB level.

Re: Karl Ravech destroying Billy Hamilton on the BBTN podcast

Originally Posted by buckeyenut

The other thing that leads to the swings like the one mentioned is the fact that he is still learning to be a switch hitter. Anyone know why they went down the path of making him a switch hitter anyways? Seems like a bad move so late in his career, when he is at the AAA/MLB level.

Because his best hope is to stand a step closer to 1B batting lefty with a follow through that takes him in the direction he's running and to run like heck. It's worked too. His minor league OBPs are way better as a LH Hitter.

Last edited by mth123; 04-19-2014 at 08:55 AM.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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