Lee H. Igel is a teacher and researcher focusing on decision-making and behaviors at work in the sports business. He uses sports as a starting point for exploring questions about business, politics, and society. Igel began his teaching career at New York University, where he is now a clinical associate professor at the NYU School of Professional Studies Tisch Institute and a co-director at NYU Sports & Society. Prior to arriving at NYU, Igel served as program advisor to senior executives of large corporations and professional service firms, entertainers, and elite competitive athletes at La Palestra in New York. Before that, he trained in the sports medicine/player development department of a Major League Baseball club. In addition to his contributions to Forbes.com, Igel's research can be found in industry and social science journals, reference books, and the popular press.

Is Mark Cuban Right About the NFL Being 10 Years From Implosion?

Mark Cuban isn’t bashful when it comes to letting people know what he thinks about how they conduct business. The billionaire owner of the Dallas Mavericks is rarely short of words about the decisions made by NBA officials in the league office and on the court. The same goes for the entrepreneurs and fellow judges pitching each other on the ABC reality series “Shark Tank.” Now, he’s extending the courtesy to NFL executives and owners, who he believes have set the league on a course that puts it “10 years away from an implosion.”

During a recent session with reporters, Cuban said that the NFL expanding its television package is bad business. The way he sees it, going after beaucoup bucks by airing too many games on too many days will end up costing the league in the long run because fans will eventually start tuning out. Or, as he said it, “I’m just telling you, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. And they’re getting hoggy. Just watch. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. When you try to take it too far, people turn the other way.”

Mark Cuban (Photo credit: Keith Allison)

To most people, Cuban’s view simply doesn’t add up. The NFL is a $10 billion-a-year enterprise—and growing. About 205 million Americans watched at least one NFL game on television this past regular season and 34 of the 35 most-watched fall television shows were NFL games. (The Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade being the lone outlier at number 22.) It is the result of decades-long trend in which increasing numbers of fans have been watching NFL games on Sunday afternoons and Monday nights. Lately, they’re watching on other days of the week, too.

In 2006, a “limited package” of eight Thursday night games started showing up on TV screens. By last season, that package had expanded to 13 games. More are on the slate for the coming season. So is a Saturday doubleheader during Week 16.

Given that millions of people tune-in to watch NFL games regardless of which teams are playing on which day and at which time, why not expand programming accordingly?

As Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com points out, there is no currently-available data to suggest “ubiquitous football won’t turn fans off on its own.” It would take poor quality football and the majority of games being played on days other than Sundays for that to happen. Plus, there is good reason for the owner of an NBA franchise to be a little anxious about the prospect of competing for many fans’ time when the leagues seasons overlap each November, December, and January. All in all, more NFL games on television should be cause for concern for someone in Cuban’s position.

But none of that seems to be what has Cuban ripping into the NFL’s television business model. The object of Cuban’s ire is aimed at a larger observation: NFL games will win the television ratings no matter what day they air—but only for so long.

Over time, Cuban has shown himself to be the kind of person who says things because he means them and not just to grab attention. That’s especially true when it comes to business. He has also shown himself to be quite adept at anticipating change, responding to it, and taking advantage of it. How he does that is by looking at numbers and at people.

Cuban’s comments about the NFL television expansion package draw on moral and behavioral factors, not economic and data-driven ones. He sees the whole thing as based on short-term-profit-driven thinking, maybe not too different from the kind that creates stock market bubbles. It’s not that fans wouldn’t understand what games they would be tuning into. Rather, it’s that those games would be aired without real regard for what the people who would view them actually want. It essentially means running the risk of having the right idea—airing more games—in the wrong form—on too many days per week.

Only time will tell whether Cuban is right or wrong about the NFL imploding in the coming decade. But, in the meantime, what he had to say leads to an important question: By expanding its television package further beyond Sundays, is the NFL making it tougher for most fans to properly assess which games are worth watching and which are not?

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