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Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by HokieRed

The last is always said about the levels, but as somebody who sees a lot of high A failures who were good at low A ball, I can tell you that the move from the one to the other is also a real separator.

Re: Reds farm system overall

It's been a bumpy season so far for the farm. Too many guys struggling, very few enjoying any kind of breakthrough. I doubt the Reds are happy with the way this season is going, and I suspect they'll be cutting bait on a number of kids as the season progresses.

The good news:

Stephenson and Winker. Maybe Carlos Contreras too. He's pitching well in the Cali League. That merits at least a little bit of excitement. Felix Perez looks like he might be a useful bench OF in the majors. Yorman Rodriguez is showing flashes. Tucker Barnhart looks like he indeed may have enough bat to stick in the bigs as a backup catcher.

The bad news:

Corcino has been a complete flop. At this point I'd just declare him injured so I could send him to a shrink, or a shaman or an exorcist. Hamilton's still trying to adjust to AAA. Hopefully he emerges stronger from the experience, but his star has dimmed a bit. Ryan LaMarre is officially not a prospect. Almost every bat in Bakersfield has tanked. Jeff Gelalich is showing no power. Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible. Nick Travieso is just sort of meh so far (small sample, so hopefully that improves).

Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by M2

It's been a bumpy season so far for the farm. Too many guys struggling, very few enjoying any kind of breakthrough. I doubt the Reds are happy with the way this season is going, and I suspect they'll be cutting bait on a number of kids as the season progresses.

The good news:

Stephenson and Winker. Maybe Carlos Contreras too. He's pitching well in the Cali League. That merits at least a little bit of excitement. Felix Perez looks like he might be a useful bench OF in the majors. Yorman Rodriguez is showing flashes. Tucker Barnhart looks like he indeed may have enough bat to stick in the bigs as a backup catcher.

The bad news:

Corcino has been a complete flop. At this point I'd just declare him injured so I could send him to a shrink, or a shaman or an exorcist. Hamilton's still trying to adjust to AAA. Hopefully he emerges stronger from the experience, but his star has dimmed a bit. Ryan LaMarre is officially not a prospect. Almost every bat in Bakersfield has tanked. Jeff Gelalich is showing no power. Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible. Nick Travieso is just sort of meh so far (small sample, so hopefully that improves).

Ryan LaMarre tweeted last night "baseball is the most humbling sport on earth"

Re: Reds farm system overall

Agree with M2's assessment overall. I feel like I missed on Lamarre -- have always felt there was potential there, but the bat just can't catch up to his defense, speed and good eye at the plate. I also wanted to note optimism about Barnhart as a major league backup.

One lightning rod is Lutz. I'm a buyer, but I doubt many are just yet.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Likes:

Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by M2

It's been a bumpy season so far for the farm. Too many guys struggling, very few enjoying any kind of breakthrough. I doubt the Reds are happy with the way this season is going, and I suspect they'll be cutting bait on a number of kids as the season progresses.

The good news:

Stephenson and Winker. Maybe Carlos Contreras too. He's pitching well in the Cali League. That merits at least a little bit of excitement. Felix Perez looks like he might be a useful bench OF in the majors. Yorman Rodriguez is showing flashes. Tucker Barnhart looks like he indeed may have enough bat to stick in the bigs as a backup catcher.

The bad news:

Corcino has been a complete flop. At this point I'd just declare him injured so I could send him to a shrink, or a shaman or an exorcist. Hamilton's still trying to adjust to AAA. Hopefully he emerges stronger from the experience, but his star has dimmed a bit. Ryan LaMarre is officially not a prospect. Almost every bat in Bakersfield has tanked. Jeff Gelalich is showing no power. Tanner Rahier is looking pretty terrible. Nick Travieso is just sort of meh so far (small sample, so hopefully that improves).

Agree with this, except I wouldn't give up on Rahier yet. As Edd noted, he's just 19 in full season ball, and the power and the glove are very real. Now if he can just figure out how to get on base (and hopefully the BABIP will turn around)...

Also the success of Cingrani cannot be ignored when looking at the farm system. He is looking like he will be an impact pitcher at the big league level, and his successful conversion to starter is a testament to the system (although he may now be reverting to the bullpen, although hopefully just for the interim).

Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by Steve4192

That is pretty much limited to AAA. It happens to a small degree in AA and very rarely in A ball or rookie ball.

It happens a lot more, IMHO, than you are acknowledging. Take the Reds Pensacola team for an example--and if anything exhibits the weakness of our system at the moment it's something like this--the average age of that pitching staff is 25.7 years. There are only two pitchers on that staff that are 24--Renken and Rogers. With the exception of those two guys, it's not a staff of prospects, it's one of very experienced minor league pitchers--and of course they'll eat up 21 year olds for a while. Minor league rosters and results make no sense without a look at the age distribution.

Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by HokieRed

It happens a lot more, IMHO, than you are acknowledging. Take the Reds Pensacola team for an example--and if anything exhibits the weakness of our system at the moment it's something like this--the average age of that pitching staff is 25.7 years. There are only two pitchers on that staff that are 24--Renken and Rogers. With the exception of those two guys, it's not a staff of prospects, it's one of very experienced minor league pitchers--and of course they'll eat up 21 year olds for a while. Minor league rosters and results make no sense without a look at the age distribution.

A few comments.

1. The Pensacola pitching staff is a little old, but not nearly as old as you make it out to be. They are only a little over a year older than the league average.

2. Despite being older than league average, they aren't eating up anyone. Their 4.33 R/G ranks 7th in the ten team league. More talented teams are chewing them up despite their experience.

3. They aren't all that experienced. Most of the 'old guys' in the Pensacola rotation didn't get their pro careers underway until they were 22 or 23. Tim Crabbe and Josh Smith were 22 when they made their full-season debut, and Ryan Dennick was 23. They aren't experienced veterans. They are college draftees who failed to make the fast track. There are plenty of 22 year olds in the Southern League who have as much or more pro experience as those guys.

Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I'm not indicting the player development system at all. The current administration of the Reds have done a fantastic job recently of bringing along young talent. I'm merely arguing that the farm is not in a good place RIGHT NOW, due in large part to their recent success at graduating guys to the major leagues and flipping prospects for major league talent.

I also think there are more than a few fans wearing rose-colored glasses when it comes to the current state of the Reds farm system. There is not a lot of talent down there right now. I have total faith that the Reds player development folks will turn it around in due course, but right now the Reds farm system is in the bottom half of the majors, maybe even the bottom third.

ok, that's a good point.. I didn't mean to call you out.. .Just the general tone of the thread. The farm is doing very well under the circumstances. We've harvested so much talent from it, I think it's reasonable to be in a relatively depleted state. I do agree with you that there's not a whole lot of quanity down there to get excited about though.

I get excited to see the Reds call up a guy like Lutz ahead of schedule and then see him do ok in the bigs. Sure beats calling up a useless guy like Negron. That was my point..

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Reds farm system overall

Originally Posted by REDREAD

ok, that's a good point.. I didn't mean to call you out.. .Just the general tone of the thread. The farm is doing very well under the circumstances. We've harvested so much talent from it, I think it's reasonable to be in a relatively depleted state. I do agree with you that there's not a whole lot of quanity down there to get excited about though.

I get excited to see the Reds call up a guy like Lutz ahead of schedule and then see him do ok in the bigs. Sure beats calling up a useless guy like Negron. That was my point..

Completely agree.

Now let's just add Trea Turner to the mix through next year's draft, and I'll be a very happy man.

Re: Reds farm system overall

True, I counted Robinson as a success because Walt picked him up over the winter because he was DFAed and sent him to the farm, in case he was needed.

Turned out to be a good move (If Robinson was not here, surely a less talented player would be in his place).

So yea, the Reds didn't really develop Robinson, but he was on the farm when they needed him. For a contending team, being able to reach down to the farm and pull a Navaro, Robinson, Lutz, Cingrani, Partsch when you need them is invaluable.

I do agree with folks that the prospect quanity is thin now, but we've been pulling quite a harvest out of it. It is truly amazing. If the farm is thin due to the best prospects reaching the bigs quickly, I won't complain as much

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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