1000 AM UPDATE...
SHOTGUN FZRA ADV FOR TRI-STATE AREA INTO CENTRAL WV. ALTHOUGH THE
ROADS ARE VERY WELL SALTED FOR THE MOST PART...2SM FZRA /YES NO -/
ALONG WITH FIVE HUNDREDTHS ALL AS FZRA AND 30F AT HTS WAS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. WE DO HAVE REPORTS OF ISOLATED ICY ROADS AND AN
ACCIDENT.
PREV DISCN...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESONAM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS. SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD
OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS
A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFCFLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFCFRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.
AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.
ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...