The business behind the show

Movie projector: Alice headed for $100-million-plus worldwide debut

March 4, 2010 | 2:16
pm

Alice is likely to find a huge box office gold at the bottom of the rabbit hole this weekend.

Walt Disney Studios' 3-D version of "Alice in Wonderland," directed by Tim Burton and starring Johnny Depp, is headed for one of the biggest winter debuts ever, people who have seen pre-release surveys of potential moviegoers say. The record-holder is director Mel Gibson's 2004 release, "The Passion of the Christ," which opened to $83.8 million.

In the U.S. and Canada, "Alice" is on track to sell more than $75 million worth of tickets from Friday through Sunday and, according to some estimates, could even exceed $90 million.

"Alice" is also opening simultaneously in more than 40 foreign markets that Disney believes represent about 60% of its potential international grosses, adding tens of millions of dollars more to the movie's take this weekend.

Disney needs a very strong box office performance for the movie to earn a return on its sizable investment in the picture, which two people familiar with its budget said cost about $200 million to make. Additional marketing expenses can drive up the ultimate cost well beyond that.

It's expected to perform particularly well in Britain, the home country of "Alice in Wonderland" book author Lewis Carroll, as well as co-stars Helena Bonham Carter, Stephen Fry and Alan Rickman. Burton, Bonham Carter's partner, also lives in Britain.

The buildup to the movie's opening has been contentious, with several theater chains in Europe threatening to not show the movie after Disney officials said they would release the DVD on an accelerated time frame, just three months after it hits theaters. The studio was able to reach a settlement with those exhibitors and to resolve similar concerns by AMC Entertainment, one of the biggest theater chains in the U.S.

"Working with our partners on this was worth it," said Disney distribution president Chuck Viane. "We're primed and ready to go now and it's looking to be an unbelievably good weekend worldwide."

"Alice" -- which has received decidedly mixed reviews -- is generating a strong amount of interest from all audience groups but looks to be particularly popular with girls and young women.

About 2,250 theaters of the 3,278 theaters showing "Alice" domestically will play it in 3-D, with surcharges on ticket prices that should help the movie's bottom line. "Avatar," which has generated blockbuster grosses at 3-D locations for the last three months, is holding onto 661 3-D locations. It is sharing many multiplexes that have multiple 3-D screens with "Alice."

However, all 188 of the nation's Imax screens are dropping "Avatar" for "Alice" in 3-D.

Overseas, Disney estimates that about half of the theaters showing "Alice" will do so in 3-D.

The Sunday telecast of the Academy Awards may take a chunk out of the business that "Alice in Wonderland" would normally do, because the Oscars show is one of TV's most watched events of the year.

However, with many U.S. schools starting their spring break next week, weekday grosses should be unusually high for the PG-rated picture.

The only other movie opening this weekend is Overture Films' action film "Brooklyn's Finest," starring Richard Gere, Don Cheadle, Ethan Hawke and Wesley Snipes. Overture bought domestic distribution rights to the picture for about $2.5 million. It is expected to open to about $10 million.