Thomas Pascoe worked in both the Lloyd's of London insurance market and in corporate finance before joining the Telegraph. He writes about the financial markets. His email is thomas.pascoe@telegraph.co.uk and his Twitter address is @PascoeTelegraph

Ed Miliband has the potential to be a great prime minister

In a short time, I shall be leaving the country for at least two years (stop cheering). When I return, Ed Miliband will be the prime minister.

Whether this constitutes an achievement for a Labour leader is open to debate. The legalised gerrymandering which the Coalition parties have, through their mutual dishonesty, ensured will be perpetuated makes it easy to build a workable majority on the consent of one voter in three. Even if this is set aside, Ukip and the Tory backbenches have done enough to destroy the Conservatives as an electoral force for a generation. Ukip take the marginals out of play.

Dan Hodges frequently makes the case on these pages that Labour ought to be further ahead at this point in the cycle. This may be a credible view under most circumstances, but we are probably at the high point of Tory achievement in the polls. The Conservatives have shot their arrows already. They have promised an in/out election on Europe, an unthinkable concession until last year; they have tried to buy their equivalent of the client class by promising large amounts of taxpayers' money for middle-class enthusiasms like nannies. They have threatened welfare claimants, attacked immigrants, and are murmuring about ending our membership of the ECHR. Their prospectus is a shire Tory's dream, and yet those shire Tories hate them. Many have left for Ukip never to return. Those that remain have lost all enthusiasm for campaigning.

The launch of these policies so far from an election shows that the Tories are aware that they have lost their base. Until they have recaptured it, they cannot start to put together a coalition of voters to propel them to victory next time. And yet, if it were possible to recapture it, they would have done by now. The party has acceded to almost every request made of it by its internal detractors. It had to do so, but it is now too late. Those intending to vote Ukip are not motivated primarily by Europe, but by a personal dislike for those that run their party. This is also a feeling which is rife on the backbenches – there are a great number who would rather their party went down in flames than see Dave achieve victory in 2015. Why are they so angry? A great many watched impotently for a dozen years while Labour destroyed many of the institutions of state and destroyed the bond of trust between governed and government. Conservative supporters and MPs waited a long time for a Tory government. They got one with Lib Dem ministers and Lib Dem principles. They have not forgiven and they won't forget.

With the bond of trust between party and voter broken, the Tories cannot win, no matter what they promise. As a consequence, I believe Labour will win handsomely in 2015. The question remains, however, what sort of Prime Minister will Ed Miliband be?

I feel that he has the potential to be a great one. He is sincere, principled and brave. Consider his response to the Tory EU vote threat. His detractors argue that good politics would consist in promising to support either a vote in 2017 (the Tory idea), or more cunningly pledge to support a vote before 2015, forcing Dave to campaign against British independence and driving an absolute wedge between Prime Minister and party.

The latter proposal is considered very clever, and it is very clever, but only if you look at politics as a great game. It's exactly what Mr Cameron would do in Mr Miliband's position. The Labour leader's reasons for not doing so speak well of his character – alone of all the actors in this sorry drama, he is behaving responsibly. Consider, firstly, what would happen if he created a consensus between the Westminster parties on the subject of a referendum in 2017. The investment climate would have been poisoned for at least four years. With no detail over what trading markets the UK will have access to and at what terms, attracting inward investment, particularly in manufacturing businesses, would be impossible. On the other hand, going early makes any sort of renegotiation impossible, and is so nakedly unprincipled that it will feed the ill will the public already feels towards its politicians.This is a brave decision, and it will not be a popular one, but it suggests principals which run deeper than panic.

Ed's plan to cut VAT in order to boost consumption is a good one. That the knaves and fools on the Conservative benches have barracked him so remorselessly about it was telling. When the Tories cut taxes, it is for business. Labour are right to suggest that cutting taxes for people might be a sounder idea, given the squeeze on living standards. In any case, businesses will benefit from rising consumption. Yes, it would increase the deficit in the short run, but should it really be up to the leader of the Labour Party to remind the Conservatives that the best way to stimulate a moribund economy is to require less of people in taxes?

Defending welfare recipients is another area where Mr Miliband has gone against the grain and against popular opinion. But what do people expect of him? His party represents the poorest in society (as well as, of course, the media class from which David Cameron is drawn). If he abandoned his people for electoral advantage then he would be shallow and a coward. The imposition of a fine on unoccupied bedrooms imposes a significant burden on those with very little. That doesn't mean the policy is wrong, but it does mean that expecting the leader of the Labour Party to support it requires of him a form of betrayal. David Cameron did that to the Conservatives, and it won few friends. Ed is right to seek to take care of his own.

Many of Ed's shadow cabinet members are objectionable, but then, many politicians are objectionable. The heart does not leap at the prospect of Harriet Harman, deputy prime minister, but then nor does it thrill at the thought of Maria Miller going about her business. In modern politics, the figurehead is more important than the team. Ed is often seen as standing for the wrong thing, but Dave is seen as standing for nothing at all, and at present Mr Cameron's position is more resented.

If nothing else, Mr Miliband has shown bravery under pressure and loyalty to his supporters. If Dave had demonstrated both attributes, he would be in a position to force through some of the products of Number 10's random policy generator. Labour's victory at the next election is not in doubt. What remains to be seen is whether their leader is up to the task that follows. The early signs are encouraging.