FACT SHEET: EUROPE

FEBRUARY 2019communications@theicct.org WWW.THEICCT.ORG

HEALTH IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION FROM

TRANSPORTATION SOURCES IN LONDONA new study provides a detailed picture of the Among European Union member states, thehealth impacts attributable to emissions from United Kingdom had the second-highestfour transportation subsectors: on-road diesel transportation health burden in 2015, behindvehicles, on-road non-diesel vehicles, shipping, Germany. If London itself were an EU memberand non-road mobile sources such as agricultural state, it would have ranked tenth in transportationand construction equipment. The study, by health burden in 2015, ahead of Hungary andresearchers from the International Council on Romania.Clean Transportation, George WashingtonUniversity Milken Institute School of Public Health, On-road diesel vehicles contributed 46% of theand the University of Colorado Boulder, links transportation health burden in London, followedstate-of-the-art vehicle emissions, air pollution, by international shipping (37%); non-road mobileand epidemiological models to estimate health sources, including agricultural and constructionimpacts at the global, regional, national, and local equipment and rail (11%); and on-road non-diesellevels in 2010 and 2015. vehicles (6%). The high contribution of on-road diesel vehicles reflects both tailpipe PM2.5 and NOx emissions, the latter of which contribute toKEY FINDINGS FOR THE LONDON secondary PM2.5 (in the form of nitrate aerosols)REGION and ozone.

In 2015, approximately 1,500 premature deaths Among 100 major urban areas worldwide that thein metropolitan London were attributable to study evaluated, London ranked 28th in populationambient PM2.5 and ozone from transportation and ninth in the number of deaths attributabletailpipe emissions. Deaths attributable to ambient to transportation emissions in 2015—that is, thePM2.5 and ozone from all sources totaled 4,500, health burden from transportation emissions inmeaning that transportation accounted for just London is disproportionately heavy.under one-third (32.7%) of all deaths from airpollution that year in London. London had the eighth-highest fraction of deaths from air pollution attributable to transportationLondon accounted for 17.4% of transportation- emissions in 2015 among major cities worldwide.attributable deaths from PM2.5 and ozone pollution The ten worst, in order, were Milan, Rotterdam,in the United Kingdom in 2015, for a mortality Turin, Stuttgart, Mexico City, Leeds, Manchester,rate of 15 deaths per 100,000 population London, Paris, and Cologne.(approximately 9.7 million in London and suburbsin 2015).

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FACT SHEET HEALTH IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES IN LONDON

Transportation-attributable deaths from PM2.5 and ozone pollution, mortality rates, and population in 100 major urban areas, 2015. Bubble color indicates the trade bloc in which an urban area is located. Bubble size indicates the transportation-attributable mortality rate per 100,000 population.1

National total PM2.5 and ozone mortality attributable to transportation emissions in 2015 in major trade blocs globally, using central relative risk estimates. The size of each box corresponds to each region’s share of global transportation-attributable PM2.5 and ozone mortality in 2015.

2 FACT SHEET HEALTH IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES IN LONDON

POLICY IMPLICATIONS reduce emissions, and global inventories of

transportation tailpipe emissions exist.London suffers a high public-health burdenfrom transportation emissions, and controlling The analysis used the GEOS-Chem globalthose emissions is of central importance to chemical transport model to simulate theany air-quality management plan. In London, fractions of PM2.5 and ozone concentrations thatreducing emissions from on-road diesel vehicles are attributable to transportation emissionswould have substantial benefits for public health, (transportation-attributable fraction, or TAF). Itbecause those vehicles account for the largest combines that data with epidemiological healthshare of the city’s transportation-attributable impact assessment methods consistent with thedeaths from air pollution. London is already Global Burden of Disease 2017 study to estimatetaking a number of actions to address vehicle- the associated disease burden.related air pollution, including its ultra-low-emission and low-emission zones, investments in To evaluate the health burden attributable towalking and cycling infrastructure, and policies specific subsectors (on-road diesel vehicles,promoting clean buses and taxis. London has on-road non-diesel vehicles, internationalalso partnered with the TRUE initiative, which shipping, and non-road mobile sources), therecently released a report detailing the real- analysis summed the gridded PM2.5 and ozoneworld emissions of vehicles in London. deaths attributable to each transportation subsector according to national boundaries andThe high contribution of international shipping urban areas. Urban area definitions are takento London’s air pollution problem suggests that from the Global Human Settlement grid forfurther actions are needed to control shipping 2015 at 1km resolution, and regridded to 0.1°emissions. All ships must use low-sulfur fuels resolution. The study used the “urban centers(maximum 0.1% sulfur content by mass) or SOx or high density clusters” definition, which treatsscrubbers within the North Sea Sulfur Emission areas with dense contiguous urbanicity asControl Area, which covers the English Channel one large city. The number of transportation-and the North Sea. Starting in 2021, new ships attributable mortalities in a subset of one ofmust meet stringent Tier III NOX standards set by these areas could be estimated by multiplyingthe International Maritime Organization to enter the appropriate population estimate by thethe North Sea Emission Control Area. Several estimated transportation-attributable mortalitypolicy options are available to accelerate or rate (i.e., deaths per 100,000 population).augment these expected emission reductions.They include: establishing a black carbonemission standard for ships, restricting port APPLICABILITY TO AIR-QUALITYaccess to or awarding reduced port fees for LIMIT VALUESnewer ships or those that use low-emission or According to the World Health Organization,zero-emission fuels, and promoting shore power ambient PM2.5 pollution is harmful to humanto reduce emissions in ports. Additionally, the health even at concentrations below the 2005United Kingdom could seek to establish an guideline limit of 10 micrograms per cubicEmission Control Area covering the waters off its meter (µg/m3); therefore the aim is to achievewestern shores. the lowest possible levels of ambient PM2.5 . Since 2015, the Global Burden of Disease methods assess PM2.5 health impacts relativeOVERALL SUMMARY to a theoretical minimum-risk exposure level,AND METHODS defined as a uniform distribution between 2.4The study estimates the contribution of and 5.9 µg/m3 based on the minimum andtransportation sector emissions globally to fifth percentile exposure level of outdoor airPM 2.5 and ozone pollution and the health pollution cohort studies conducted in Northeffects of those pollutants in 2010 and 2015. America. Greater London had an estimatedThe analysis is restricted to the air pollution– population-weighted mean PM2.5 exposure ofrelated health impacts of transportation 13.9 µg/m3 in 2015 (95% confidence interval:tailpipe emissions because a clear set of 12.8 to 15.2)—roughly 2 to 6 times the theoreticalwell-understood policies is available to minimum-risk exposure level for ambient PM2.5 .

3 FACT SHEET HEALTH IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION FROM TRANSPORTATION SOURCES IN LONDON

For this reason, even though London met the EU NO2 is a precursor to both PM2.5 (in the form ofair-quality standards for annual average PM2.5 in nitrate aerosols) and ozone. Therefore, policies2015 (set at 25 µg/m3), there is still a need from that target reductions in NO2—for which Londona public health perspective to further reduce exceeds EU air-quality standards—would reducePM2.5 levels in London. Additionally, although the the incidence of premature deaths from ambientGBD methods do not evaluate the direct health PM2.5 and ozone, the health endpoints that wereimpacts of exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), quantified for 2010 and 2015 in this study.

PUBLICATION DETAILS

Title: A global snapshot of the air pollution-related Authors: Susan Anenberg, George Washington Universityhealth impacts of transportation sector emissions in Milken Institute School of Public Health; Joshua Miller,2010 and 2015 International Council on Clean Transportation; Daven Henze, University of Colorado, Boulder; Ray Minjares,Download: www.theicct.org/publications/health- International Council on Clean Transportationimpacts-transport-emissions-2010-2015 Contact: Joshua Miller (josh@theicct.org)

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