A weak trough of low pressure over the Great Basin today will present conditions favorable for the chance of showers and or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the Sierra Crest. The upper low will slowly move east on Wednesday, but lingering instability will keep
a small threat of storms to continue Wednesday for the central and southern Sierra. By Thursday, drier air moves in as high pressure ends the threat of thunderstorms. On Friday, a dry southwest flow becomes westerly due to a pretty strong trough in the Pacific NW. The exceptional strength of that upper trough is directly related to the effects of the old Typhoon Jebe, that has now become constructively phased with the westerlies. Had this phasing occurred in October, we would be looking a possible cold, windy, snow showery period here in Mammoth. In early September, that is not the case. So the weekend looks fair, and possibly a bit breezy early on, but warm.

No changes in the short or medium range outlooks today. Weather to remain fair and warm through Wednesday the 5th….. Super Typhoon Jebe has really spun up the past 48 hours and is now a super typhoon. Both GFS and ECMWF have it recurving to the North west then North next week. They both constructively phase it with the westerlies this Tuesday the 4th PDT. Expect the energy to propagate down stream the following four days and through the west coast next Saturday….. The Dweebs are on it!!!

Little change in the weather is expected through the Holiday weekend with seasonal temperatures and cooler nights. The winds of the past weekend are abating now and we are getting back, some of that lost Summer weather, due to smoky skies. It’s a great time to be in the Sierra in Southern Mono County!

Lots of folks still concerned about a Modoki El Nino… I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. Still to early to call…..

The Weather for the new week looks warm and dry with seasonal temperatures. That means that highs in Mammoth will continue in the mid 70s with lows at night in the 30s and 40s. Winds are on the decrease today Monday as the Trof in the Pacific NW shifts off to the east.

In that most smoke from the Lion’s fire is to the north of Mammoth, it looks like a spectacular week!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………..:-)

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Looking at the maps this afternoon there appears to be a bit less cooling now than what was earlier forecasted….So High temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 70s then cool to the Mid 70s. SO no big deal. Sunday is expected to be breezy as the pacific NW trof passes off to the east. It looks dry as can be for at least a week. The models have backed off on the cool Labor day holiday…It looks pretty nice!

El Nino…. Everyone is talking about the Modoki which is often dry for California….

In this example of the Modoki El Nino,notice how cool it is over both the Western Pacific and especially the Eastern Tropical Pacific.

In the composite above, See that the Eastern pacific is -.5 below normal in this Modoki example.

Now Look a the CPC forecasts for the Nino SSTs regions for the seasonal; in the E-3, Lots of warmth between the central pacific and eastern pacific. Looks full basin to me.
Compare the Nino 3.4 and 4 region to the Nino 1+2 region. Do not see the cool waters develop over the Nino 1+2 region….