The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

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The prospect of a Trump Presidency may not attract universal enthusiasm around the world, but each step in the US primary process brings the possibility a little closer. Assuming, however, that it is indeed possible, what would it mean for China?

China is already in the uncomfortable position of ‘being involved’ by virtue of Donald Trump’s almost constant references to China ‘killing us on trade’, which led to an unusual Chinese intervention in the domestic affairs of another state. Right after the Nevada caucus – on February 23rd – a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman issued a sharply worded reminder of China’s belief in the mutual benefits of a ‘positive policy towards China.’ This was in answer to a question, and couched in the usual diplomatic terminology, but there was little doubt what, and to whom, she was referring.

In the realm of economics, Trump’s proposals for ‘US-China Trade’ reduce to a specific willingness to declare China a ‘currency manipulator’ - a pledge also made by Mitt Romney in 2012 - along with a general challenge to the existing framework under which trade with China takes place.

Trump announcing his candidacy for the Republican nomination on June 16, 2015 file photo. A key part of Trump's appeal is his promise to renegotiate the terms of trade with China (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)

In a very technical sense, China is an acknowledged currency manipulator, in that the People’s (PBoC) regularly intervenes in the FX market to defend a specified exchange rate, but the real question turns on whether China secures advantages for its exporters by artificially holding down the exchange rate.

There is little doubt that this was true in the past, but Trump claims that the renminbi (RMB) is currently undervalued by anywhere between 15% and 40%. He would, however, find little support for this view in the market. To the contrary, the general view is that the RMB is currently overvalued to some extent, and that the PBoC has been for some time intervening in the market to prop up its value, thereby protecting its reputation as a potential reserve currency.

In fact for much of the last year the market has been focused on the prospect of a strengthening US Dollar as a consequence of efforts to unwind QE (I wrote about this in more detail last year, here).