Bringing CETA into force could take 18 months

If recent reports are accurate, the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) negotiations are only weeks away from being completed — but a cumbersome European legal review, translation and ratification process could easily delay its coming into force by another 18 months.

Despite speculation that pharmaceutical intellectual property and agricultural market access continue to hold the deal up, a Friday Postmedia article had German ambassador Werner Wnendt suggesting it could be completed as early as “next month”.

The article went on to estimate the review and ratification process will take “at least three months”.

If recent history is any indication, that’s extremely optimistic.

In December the European Parliament approved a trade deal with six Central American countries — Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Those negotiations concluded in May 2010.

It then took 25 months to translate the agreement into the EU’s 23 languages and do what’s known as a legal ‘scrubbing’ — essentially having lawyers make sure the deal accords with EU law. A press officer for EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said the CETA’s legal scrubbing alone normally takes three to four months.

“Once this is done and the text is, let’s say ‘fixed’, there’s normally a small meeting between the chief negotiators and they initial the agreement,” Helene Banner told iPolitics.

“Initial means that they’re putting — literally — their initials on each page of the agreement, which can sometimes be a thousand pages … The agreement, as such, is not so long, but the annexes are extremely long — all the tariff lines.”

Since the legal scrubbing applies to the English text of the agreement (the only language in which the negotiations take place), it then has to be translated for all EU members.

Then the ratification process begins.

Parts of the agreement can be applied provisionally if the member states agree, but in addition to getting approval from the European Council and European Parliament, some portions of the agreement require the approval of member state parliaments.

“What does that mean if you add it all up?” Banner asked. “I can’t really tell, but it can take 18 months.”