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Global Warming on Third World Nations

Although there is good agreement that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will warm the planet, there is less certainty about the pattern this warming will take, and its impact globally (Everbody,2 Atmosphere, 1992). It is unsure how far expanding oceans will raise sea levels, or whether droughts and rainfall will increase. It is currently impossible to assess accurately which countries will suffer as a consequence, and which will benefit. Gradual climatic changes may have untold effects on human health, and may impose economic costs in the form of lost farm output and the need to protect low-lying areas from rising sea levels. The secondary benefits of suppressing some pollutants given off by burning fossil fuels might be much larger than the immediate gains from reducing carbon dioxide output.

Stabilization of carbon dioxide levels at the 1990 level would reduce world output by 11 percent by the year 2000, but unless developing nations are persuaded to follow these restrictions, their output may swamp the achievement of developed countries (Everybody=s Atmosphere, 1992). The carbon dioxide output of China alone would exceed that of all developed nations signing the treaty. The cost to Third World nations of complying with the treaty from 1995 to 2050 would be almost five percent of their real income. Electricity prices in developing nations are roughly half those in developed countries, and gasoline prices are much lower. Few of these Third World nations have more than rudimentary energy taxes, and much of Third World debt is a result of borrowing to build power stations and subsidize their output. These nations also exhibit a rapid rise in local air pollution from power generation and traffic (Everybody=s Atmosphere). The world=s carbon dioxide output actually fell in 1991 due to the collapse of industry and rise in energy prices in Eastern Europe. It is estimated that if underdeveloped countries rem...