News

According to www.ValuEngine.com, the Oils-Energy sector is 3.2% undervalued, with the Oil Refining industry 7.4% overvalued, the Alternative Energy industry 34.9% undervalued and the Oil Field Machinery industry 6.7% overvalued. All eight of the stocks in today’s table have complete ValuEngine data and have enough price data to have most value levels, risky levels and pivots.

Arabian American Development Company (ARSD) – has only been below $10 since September 26, 2012.Eagle Rock Energy Partners, L.P. (EROC) – has only been below $10 since November 5, 2012.EnergySolutions, Inc (ES) – has been below $10 since the week of May 15, 2009.Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) – has only been below $10 since May 3, 2012.ION Geophysical Corporation (IO) – has been below $10 since the week of August 12, 2011.Lightbridge Corp. (LTBR) – has been below $10 since the week of July 2, 2010.Profire Energy, Inc. (PFIE) – has been below $2 for at least five years.PowerSecure International, Inc. (POWR) – has been below $10 since the week of August 20, 2010.

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Reading the Table

OV / UN Valued – The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine. The most undervalued stock in today’s table is ES by 34.4%. The most overvalued stock is GEVO by 12.8%.

VE Rating – A “1-Engine” rating is a Strong Sell, a “2-Engine” rating is a Sell, a “3-Engine” rating is a Hold, a “4-Engine” rating is a Buy and a “5-Engine” rating is a Strong Buy. We have one Buy rated stock (ES), five Hold rated stocks and two strong sell rated stocks (GEVO &LTBR).

Last 12-Month Return (%) – Stocks with a Red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage over the past twelve months! The biggest winner over the last twelve months is PFIE with a gain of 92.9%. The biggest loser is GEVA with a loss of 71.4%.

Forecast 1-Year Return – Stocks with a Red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a Black number in the Table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months. The best performer is expected to be ES but only with a gain of 8.4%. The biggest loser is projected to be GEVO with loss of just 42.9%.

P/E Ratios – ES has a single-digit twelve month trailing P/E ratio. Two (ARSD & IO) have reasonable P/E ratios. Three have elevated P/E ratios.
Value Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-Weekly, M-Monthly, Q-Quarterly, S-Semiannual and A- Annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that acts as a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: is the price at which to enter a GTC Limit Order to sell on strength.

Where to Buy and Where to Sell

A “Value Level” is a price at which buyers should add to positions on market price weakness. A “Risky Level” is a price at which sellers should reduce holdings on market price gains. A "Pivot" is a support or resistance (Value Level or Risky Level) that was violated in its time horizon, acting as a magnet during the remainder of that time horizon. These levels are calculated in weekly (W), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), semiannual (S) and annual (A) time horizons, based on the past nine closes in each time horizon. My theory is that the closes over a nine-year period are the summation of all bullish and bearish events for that market or specific stock. These levels are the most important element of my Buy and Trade Strategy.

Buy and Trade Guidelines

Investors should consider entering good until cancelled (GTC) orders to buy weakness to a value level, or to sell strength to a risky level.

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