Monday, June 22, 2009

Summer's here and a slow week saw modest losses, but nothing killer. Since the March bottom there hasn't been two weeks of consecutive selling - will this week offer the first one? What had the Stockcharts.com Publishers to say about it.

Eric Muathe of Muathe Twitter has a couple of charts of interest. His weekly chart uses 1,739 as the breakout point for the Nasdaq with 10-week and 13-week EMAs as trailing support - last weeks selling was nothing to be too alarmed about based on these metrics

His daily chart has the gap breakout holding with a larger overhead gap as an upside target.

Anthony V Caldaro of Objective Elliot Wave noted a "primary B" for his wavecount; but I don't 'see it' unless he refers to the "B" of the "ABC" from the March low (with the 'v' at 956.23?); if that's the case then the current move down would likely last a few weeks. EWT is such a head-spinner!

George Zimmerman of GSZimmTrading.com suggests a reaction low for the NYSE McClellan Oscillator; although if it plays out like it did for June of last year then the 'buy' signal has the potential to trap plenty of bulls.

When you look at it from a Summation perspective the 'sell' signal is more obvious:

Richard Lehman is looking for a downward Monday (futures would appear to suggest a gap down at least).

6/20 -- Today's failure suggests to me that we have hit the upper line of the ST downtrend and I have drawn it that way (purple) on most charts. We have now had teh red mini down and the blue back up. I expect Monday to begin the next red mini down. Its a bit early to make that call, but that's what I'm seeing. VIX shows a larger upchannel now and its position is at the bottom of that channel, so moving up from here would be consistent with another decline in equities. Furthermore, it cannot be comforting that Chinese and American ships are heading to intercept a North Korean vessel carrying nuclear weaponry.

6/19 -- Quadruple witching today. That means a lot of churning and unwinding to obscure the underlying direction. The little upmove (blue mini) may continue a bit, but I still see it as the precursor to another down leg. The Dow hourly looks like the index is coming up to retest the green breakout line -- maybe that's what's going on. The resources like gold or oil are a different play, and may bounce within larger downtrends.

6/17 -- The short term charts are all in downtrends at least at the mini level, though they are starting to take different shapes. The Dow looks best as a slope change at mini level, while the Naz and QQQQ may have actually started breaking back upward. The XLE and XLF have been hard hit, approaching their green support lines from March. The consensus, all told, is that while we may find some support and a bounce here, I see this as likely to continue slipping into July. The amount of open ground underneath the long term charts is pretty vast.

By his measures the "B" of the "ABC" EWT correction is not in place yet:

20-day MA still support for the Nasdaq:

Finally, Yong Pang of CobrasMarketView has a solid 'neutral' short term picture with a bearish bent over the intermediate term; he asks "H&S Bottom or Bear Flag for Monday?"

The bearish wedge in the SPY broke last week

So do odds favour the bears this week?

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[1] Register at Zignals.[2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight)[3] Click on the YourCall Icon

[4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month)[5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals[6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments section of this post. In your email make reference to the competition.[7] The Zignals member with the stock giving the highest return from either a target hit or expiration after 22 trading days will win the prize. Only stocks or FX prices listed on Zignals qualify for entry (no pink sheet stocks). The announcement of the prize winner will be made at the end of July.

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This clock reached its time on October 19th 2017. This was a forecast for a "Major Market Top". Unfortunately, I can't find the link for the source material (but years ending in "7" was one of the red flags) but I thought it interesting enough to start this countdown clock 2 years ago.