Tornado Forecasts

UNDER CONSTRUCTION!

Welcome to the tornado forecasting page. This page contains real time CONUS-wide probabilistic forecasts for tornado occurrence (within ~40km of a point), TORFF occurrence (within ~40km of a point, allowing up to 50km displacement between tornado and flash flood observances), and conditional probabilities of tornado timing and longevity given occurrence (EARLY: exclusively before sunset, BOTH: before and after sunset, LATE: exclusively after sunset). Methodology for these forecasts will be described in a forhcoming publication(s). Methodology is currently under development and subject to change.

PLEASE NOTE: For now, this forecast algorithm is only trained on a domain roughly including the eastern two thirds of the US. Forecasts are made in real-time for all of CONUS for the sake of completeness, but there is no guarantee of skill or reliability for forecasts generated outside this domain, particularly in areas of complex terrain, which are largely not included in the training data.