Econocasts

Thursday, September 29, 2016

The silver cycle model correctly predicted a decrease in price right after the model run shown below, and here on the blog. Of interest, the model is not showing a phase shift in time, but a magnitude shift in price. If the model is correct, we should see a local minimum in price some time in the next month, followed by a rising price into 2017. Of course, remembering that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

The XOI.X model shows a continued right phase shift, and a major discordance between the predicted and actual index level. I note that a similar discordance occurred twice before, with Z-score > 6, on 1987.10.19 and 2008.10.15. Both times the index resolved to the upside within 6 weeks.A previous chart of the model output is shown below and here on the blog.