There are so many guys in this class that I couldn’t watch 25+ pieces of film in great detail, but after 2 minutes or so you can see what a guy is all about. This is my analysis based on cursory look at their film (though, I would also look at their film throughout the year when the names came up). If you disagree with any, let me know, and I can go back and watch a longer clip and adjust if I agree. Anyway, these are my ratings. Also, I found it harder than ever to rank these guys. There is a fine line between each one. That’s unique. Under Riley, there would be very large and obvious gaps between each 3 star. Here, the difference is almost negligible. Further proof GA is recruiting a different type of 2 or 3 star guy — on that is more developed and has more upside. These guys are all muscular, aggressive, and intense players. The exact type of 2 or 3 star you can win big with.

Anyway, here are my rankings. I do it by “star”, then in order of who I think is the highest caliber in that tier.

4-stars

Isaiah Hodgins — This guy will be a coach one day. Bright, well-spoken, mature, loves football. Great looking length and frame. Catches the ball at the high point with fluidity and ease. Stands out as a natural leader.

Craig Evans — Game changing DT if he can keep his head straight.

Quantino Allen — Really underrated. He can play offense or defense and looks great on either side. I think LB is his ultimate landing spot, but it sounds like they’re going to try him at WR first. Looks great running, so I have no issue with that.

Trajon Cotton — Amazing ball skills and awareness. In his film, he always knows where the ball is when it’s in the air, and then makes a play on it, not just knocking it down, but getting interceptions (vs bad competition, but still a great skill). Needs a bit more size.

David Morris — 4 star safety, 2 star RB. He can do either, but I much prefer him at Safety. A little stiff, so I’m thinking we have a killer FS here if the coaches don’t mess up his position. Smart, mature player who can lead a secondary. Could be the Ryan Nall of defense. Stands out as a natural leader.

Kolby Taylor — Taylor should be a 4 star, possibly a 5-star — he was well on his way before injury. Doesn’t have breakaway speed (and hopefully it hasn’t been lessened by his injury), but great hands and fluidity. Runs great routes, well coached and developed player. Mature mindset.

3 stars

Kesi Ah-Hoy — Great physique. Aggressive defender. Tackles and strips the ball, has awareness, etc. I’m not sure where he will play, but to me this is a S or LB and a good one.

Charles Watson — Idea body for S or WR. Looks the part. On offense, goes up and high points it. On D, plays aggressive (maybe a little too aggressive, as there are some PIs on his film). Looks like a hard hitter who knows nothing but aggressive. Type A personality/player. Smooth and fluid running, has good speed. Could be a 4 star by the end of his career.

Jeffrey Manning Jr — Nothing pops out either way. Just a very solid and balanced all around player.

Onesimus Lutu-Clarke — Athletic and plays with good leverage. Much more advanced looking OL prospect than the linemen listed below him. Appears to be a natural.

Calvin Tyler — Little bowling ball who just produces. Low center of gravity who can gain chunks when in space. Legs constantly churn, which implies a player with heart and competitive edge. Good vision. Clearly a consolation prize, but not a bad one. If needed, I can see him being an every down back down the road despite his size.

Jake Luton — We know the story on this guy. Gun slinger who has a low completion % (though it did increase throughout the year), etc. I’m game to see what he can do. Has a great attitude and has ability. Just has to harness it. Coach him up, and he could be a good one.

Aaron Short — Underrated WR. Runs and catches like Davante Adams. I’m more high on this guy than many fans or the sites. Nice to have another WR with some size, too. Think he should be a high rated 3 star.

Arex Flemings — Hits his top gear quickly, spins and doesn’t go down easily, high motor, plays with intensity. Elusive with good speed. Biggest con is obviously size/durability. If he were 3 inches taller I’d have him much higher. Not sure what to make of his size. Ultimate position likely CB.

Brock Wellsfry — By the way he run blocks, looks to have a wrestling background. Seems to need more work in pass blocking. By next year I can see this guy in the starting lineup. Solid 3 star talent who just needs coaching and optimizing his body at this point. I like Washington linemen. The ones we get are usually solid.

Kaleb Hayes — Tough to analyze. Looks a lot like Seth Collins in that he’s lean and played QB in HS. I don’t see him as a QB…maybe a WR or CB. Has long strides and good speed.

Isaiah Dunn — Under recruited player. He has a great frame and very good technique for a HS player. Looks to be well coached. I think what’s holding him back is size. Very thin player. He needs a year or two of weight training — at that point he should be a very good player.

Aidan Willard — Not a huge fan of his game. Looks like a very poor man’s Jake Locker running, but his completion % and film both suggest more serious mechanical problems. Pros are that he’s elusive, throws well on the run, has a good arm. Cons are that he has a very low completion %, and I was looking at his HS stats, and he only played in a few games, so he was either hurt or got beat out by someone (wouldn’t be a good sign). Hope I’m wrong because we can’t afford to miss on QBs. Lowest of the 3 stars and probably should have him a 2, but his frame, mobility, and arm keep him here. Needs several years of coaching.

2 Stars

BJ Taylor — Iffy. Seems like a desperation play. Good plan D, but they obviously wanted other guys more. I see a third down pass catcher here. A poor man’s Green who I think they scrambled to find once Green bailed. I don’t think this guy has the frame to be a #1 back and break many tackles. Seems to work hard and have a good attitude.

Justin Gardner — The guy looks the part and is fluid, but if you watch his film, he gets beat on double moves a lot and many of the plays he is making are due to make up speed. You can’t really play corner successfully like that. Seems to bite on first moves and lack awareness to play in schemes. Has the physical tools not sure he has the mental.

Jaelen Bush — Couldn’t find much film on him, but he looks decent.

Justin Sattelmaier — He’s huge, but that’s about all I see going for him. Plays much too upright. Gets pushed back on film too much for a guy his size, which suggests leverage problems. Not a fan.

Clay Cordasco — 2 star. Filler. Plays with high leverage, no speed, poor lateral movement. Not sure they can coach any of that up, but he does have a great frame. Coaches have some work here. I see a practice squad filler.

Josh Bowcut — Mission recruit, not worth scouting at this point..

Unknown:

Travis MacKay — in his HUDL film, they don’t circle him out, so it’s impossible to find him in time to see what he’s doing on any given play. Good frame. I just can’t give him a grade if I can’t find him on tape. Awful job by the coaches not circling him on film.

The funny thing about that whole “Calibraska” thing, was I think it started out as “Calabraska” because of some player they were recruiting from Calabasas High School.
Their stupid fans just thought it was “Calibraska” for all California related recruits, and nobody corrected them.

speaking of Riley, I took a peek at Nebraska’s schedule next year. I see four sure losses; Oregon, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State; and the strong possibility of three more: Northwestern, at Minnesota and Iowa. Looks like a 6-6 year to me; right in ol’ Mike’s wheelhouse.

So I think all we’re waiting on is Moku-Watson and Lutu-Clarke.
Sykes is likely an academic casualty per Eggers, so I wouldn’t expect to see him officially sign.
Am I missing anybody?

That would put us at 23 signed today (not counting Bowcut or Bush in those numbers)
So 2 spots left to pursue grad transfers or any guys who are still on the fence after signing day. Or maybe they just don’t use every spot. Probably depends on whatever attrition happens in the offseason.

Agree that the whole class of athletes is better than the Riley regime. None of those “WTF were they thinking?!?” reactions to the films.

I would have preferred a few more OL, DL, but I think they are addressing the roster imbalance that was a product of the past.

Now there is early spring ball, and then back to recruiting. Next year, there should be no point in comparing Andersen’s class to Riley’s (other than Riley will likely be unemployed). Time to start comparing Andersen’s progress against his first two, full classes. More wins this year will help.

Love this group….got some leadership and guys that take action. Will be disappointed if we don’t get minimum 6 wins this year. I expect a couple of these guys to come-in and play and may even start right away (OL, LB). Although several more appear ready, just not sure if it is in the cards.

Overall, its a real solid class top to bottom. I think looking back at Riley’s classes you would look at one to three recruits who you thought would be impact players the rest were projects or depth players. Then you would hope some of their walk ons would emerge as starters.

The class strength is the early signees, I like how they went about getting early guys in.

We lost some battles, but that is the nature of gig when you are building a foundation from the bottom.

Next sesason will be a HUGE year of importance, getting off to a good start and getting 7, 8, 9 wins would give major credibilty. Schedule is tough though.

Oregon 2018 HS recruiting class will be a very top elite talent, we have to do better then we did this year on those kids. I am not sold on Woods recruiting the state, it will come down to Coach A to convince some of the local kids to come here.

Arex and Jeffrey Manning Jr were there with him. Makes me think Beavs could have had him. Not sure what was said to him that made him think something different about his overall opportunity at OSU early. Hopefully not redshirting. It all went downhill when he got worried about Nebraska where he didn’t even go. At that point it got messy quick. Don’t think he’ll like Pullman as much v as Corvo but I’m sure he’ll like playing his friends at Oregon State every year and competing in the Pac-12.

Bro, let it go. At this point I would consider his recruitment a shit show. There are a lot of people now floating academics as being a reason.

For all we know our staff figured out he wouldn’t be accepted so they moved on (kept recruiting Green after he flipped but not Calvin). Then the same thing at NU. So he signed last minute with the Pirate.

So I have us with six 4-star athletes and 2 guys (the two highest 3-stars) right on the cusp, so arguably eight 4-stars. Which makes this the best class ever by my rankings. Big drop off after that; into more straight up 3 stars and 2 stars, but that’s a nice top heavy class with game changers. Hope they all qualify. I don’t think the recruiting sites are accurate with the class.

I think you might be low on Luton and OLC. Both have good length. One of the things that Yogi Roth pointed out that after Luton committed to Oregon St, he settled down and took off. He was 27 td’s and 3 picks, after he committed. Maybe he was pressing early on the season feeling he had to impress? Love the size of Lutu-Clarke and he really seems fluid for a lineman of that stature, I would rate him 3 star too, just based on his competition, but I think he will develop into a good lineman. Of course, I thought Delp would too, and he hasn’t done that, so take that FWIW.

I think it was just a natural progression and growth for Luton coming from a non-throwing offense in high school.

Further, I think his transition to PAC competition will be helped by having to face a (hopefully) healthy Beaver defense in spring and fall – Aydon and/or Evans disrupting at DT, some promising and improved young DEs and LBs, a returning (Freshman) all-American CB and other DBs with experience….the likes of Christian Wallace…all of these guys will help his adjustment to PAC speed and intensity. He may struggle for a while, but I bet he show’s improvements by the end of fall and be in the running for #1 and definitely get meaningful game reps.

Thanks. Could have been nerves or competition level. Not sure. But I think Luton has upside (and downside) so the 3-star rating is fair. Having him as the 6th listed 3-star isn’t being low on him. Where would you put him on my list? Ahead of those guys? 4star? I don’t see that given the risks.

Four Pac 12 schools in top 20 on 247sports and 3 on ESPN. USC will be the beast in the South with UCLA nipping at them while Stanford is the beast in the North with Washington and Oregon nipping at them. I am honestly surprised Oregon is at 20th with all the crap over the last year.

Ucla will be average with hype but not live up too it. Ucla for that last 5 years has been hyped up to be one of the best PAC 12 team but has finished season looking in the middle of the PAC. It will be USC then Utah/Colorado then Arizona State/Arizona/UCLA

Many of the top recruits have peaked out already while others are developing. It makes it all a wild card and you have to be able to foresee things. Then there are the intangibles like work ethic, heart, etc

Just listened to the Taggert/Canzano interview.
Regarding the “Bogus” weightlifting story.

Canzano questions why he blames the media for that, and he says ” I don’t blame the media, I blame the story”

What the fuck does that even mean? Lol…..
He really didn’t handle that part of the interview well at all. Hope the media continues to call him out for it since the story they reported must have been bogus.

It means he’s a snake/politician and inconsistent yet trying to look consistent.

I honestly believe he’s recruiting total thugs. Watch a few interviews with the Oregon class, and they have like 10 IQs and are either thugs or Prima Donnas. Good luck keeping that locker room intact. It’s going to be incohesive.

So, I don’t really care that they’re in the top 25. I’d rather have our class because I see at least 3 leaders who also happen to be highly rated players. I also see cohesive personalities (aggression, leadership, etc) rather than scattered like Oregon.

Regarding Taggart, I feel a lot of these players like him because he’s black. Before the social justice warriors get all fired up, just read the quotes that “I relate to him” by these recruits and read between the lines. Taggart is probably upselling that angle. Then the recruits are so dumb and thug, that Taggart and lay a few 1st grade Buddha lines on them and they fall for it that he’s some type of wise, fatherly genius. I think that’s what’s going on (and maybe paying some of them as always with Oregon).

I’m 6% black, by the way, so fuck you guys if you think that’s racist. That’s my perception of what’s going on; I’m not going to back away from it. I actually think it’s very low/manipulative of Taggart to use those tactics.

On a final note about Taggart, I don’t get the perception that he is a high energy guy with an amazing personality. I see a low energy guy who knows what people want to hear and then gives it to them with a fake personality. A chameleon. I think the guy will be exposed just like Riley was eventually exposed. I think Taggart will take much less time because as we heard today on Canzano, the nice guy facade cracked, and also he’s already showing inconsistency in his fortune cookie Buddha messages.

Why do I hate the guy? Because he’s a fake. It’s that simple and nothing to do with color, etc.

Well I was saying politician in the general sense that this guy talks like one. You had to bring up Trump, huh? Oh well.

I wouldn’t worry about insulting generals. Like any profession, some are dickheads, so I’ll just assume you’re insulting those and not the good ones. No need to bow to any authority like a peon. Some generals suck cock meat sandwiches. Some don’t.

It’s sad that the generals are the best you can defend. The military has and always will have a place at the table. It’s the swamp rats and cronies that surround them that form the archetype being discussed here.

Those generals have to do what old bone spur tells them to do… or else.

Hey Angry- I think it would be kind of awesome if you did a comparison on the first class you ranked (looks like 2011)- where you thought they ranked and then what kind of contributor they ended up being. That would be the most empirical evidence ever when it comes to showing the difference between Riley & GA’s classes.

I like this idea. Not even to call out your thoughts or what not, but to see how accurately they panned out. I think most here agree with your assessments. I know based on what I have read in these breakdowns was where I formed my opinions and I don’t recall too many of them being that far off.

Is this a recent thing? Remember how he blocked the @beavrecruiting handle last year after signing day? It might have been related but just not noticed till now?
Try @buildthedam @dyray22 @coachKAndersen and @lee_rtaylor too

Just wanted to mention something that is very encouraging about this class other than they look the part more than any group Riley recruited. I was reading the O-live breakdown to kill some time, and a lot of our recruits have made honor rolls and/or honor societies at their respective schools……ie smart kids, or at least kids that have figured out what it takes to make it. I like that.

Yup….hope smarts and leadership in class translates to smarts on the field — less penalties, knowing when to take a down, fall on loose ball, get inside the opponent’s head. This doesn’t get talked about a whole lot, but is absolutely HUGE to get to the next level whether it be College or NFL.

I think you get a diffrent dynamic of smart kid who is an athlete as opposed to smart kid who say goes to MIT. I would think it could transfer into higher football IQ, at least I hope. But it’s nice to see guys with the tools to succeed beyond football, instead of neat deals and great stories.

I don’t see a game breaker. Looks like a well rounded and balanced WR. Has some speed but not elite. Good agility and hands but nothing jumps out as exceptional. I didn’t realize he was already a JC guy. Kind of troubling he’s not in order yet. Doesn’t bode well.

When these JC guys aren’t ready by this point I feel there’s something wrong upstairs. Maybe that’s cruel or whatever, but really, he’s had a lot of time to figure this out and get ready for his 2nd chance. Unless there’s a really good reason (death in the family or some trauma like this) it’s hard to accept he’s not ready right now.

Well he failed to qualify out of high scholl, so doesn’t that mean he needs to hit a certain mark of classes or get an associate degree to be eligible? If so 2 years is acceptable to finish that requirement. But he may be borderline with his grade point average. What’s happening is the best situation, that way the school is not burned when he flunk out.

I think Hodgins and Taylor both crack the 2-deep. Probably Short and maybe Allen too. As far as returning starters at WR we have: Bradford, Collins (if he can get right medically), Villamin (if he can shake off whatever 2016 was), and Hernandez. Not an inspiring list. If the past is any indication I think Hawkins and Jarmon are out of the picture.

At QB I think McM and Luton rise to the top. That said I think I’d carry Garretson as the primary backup in every game. Think his experience and strengths as a player would allow him to come off the bench and play well. But after a week of practice, I’d start the other guy (McM or Luton, whoever’s not hurt).

I think you’re right on with the QB situation. The bigger question is who is THE starter; McM or Luton?

Little doubt Evans starts immediately, it was mentioned here that his goal is 1 year then on to the NFL, I’ll have no problem with that if that one year is good enough to give him the opportunity to go play on Sunday. But, as angry mentioned, he has to keep his head on straight!

“Little doubt Evans starts immediately, it was mentioned here that his goal is 1 year then on to the NFL, I’ll have no problem with that if that one year is good enough to give him the opportunity to go play on Sunday. ”

I’ve seen this quote before but only in comment sections or message boards. I’m not saying it’s not true but has anyone ever seen a direct quote from Evans saying he’s going to be a one and done?

I think he said it himself in an audio interview, might have been the one on soundcloud with Canzano. I forget. I’m sure that’s his goal, in which case we need to recruit DTs starting today. I’m sure GA knows this is and is on it, unlike our past coaches who were freaking clueless of the numbers.

I tend to agree on the QB situation. McM as the 1, Luton as 2, Garretson still in the picture, and forget the rest for now. Luton can make a move to take over the 1. If he’s that good and earns it, cool, but I hope they aren’t biased and still anti-McM.

WR is tough to predict. Looking at the bodies of some of the incoming guys, they can start immediately. Allen, Taylor, and Hodgins look ready to go. Taylor and Hodgins are bright. Hodgins is already there learning the playbook, so I think he’ll start or at least be a starter by the time Conference play comes. Taylor is all business and has football IQ. Not sure on Allen’s aptitude; never heard him talk.

Last year’s WRs….Bradford is fine, but I feel like he might loose time and opportunity just because the new guys are better. Maybe it will push him to become great. Villamin…what can you say? He was awful and in a meritocracy should not start or even see the field unless he proves he’s back, day in/out in practice.

If I were GA, I’d really work my new horses in the spring and fall and try to get a lineup of Hodgins, Taylor, and Allen out there. I’d have Hernandez in the slot on key downs (he came on and was good there). I’d make Bradford and Villy the backups. I’m sure they will have some 4 and 5 WR sets that require more bodies, too.

I hope they don’t go to AirRaid. Noah has value and could create matchup problems, and I like the power run game.

“The one thing you don’t want to do is disrupt what the kids have been learning the last two years,” he says. “My role here is seeing how those things fit to what we’re doing now, tweaking some things but not overhauling anything.

“I need to learn our current guys. With recruiting over, we’re having offensive meetings now so I can see what we’re doing. We just want to keep it simple, play fast and do things our kids can be successful doing.”

Agree Villy will have to earn it but if you look at his whole career, 2016 seems like an outlier to me. I think there’s a reasonable chance he figures out whatever his issues were (maybe injuries?)

What about Short? Collins?

I like Allen but Hodgins/Taylor (and the returning players) have a big advantage on him in terms of offseason prep. Think he’s a dark horse to play this year. Short won’t be here till fall either, but coming from JC I would assume he’d be more game ready than a HS recruit.

I think Short’s role is to create competition. If he has to start, I think GA would be disappointed because it means someone who was expected to step up didn’t. Short is an insurance policy. A nice, mature, balanced WR with size.

The reason to have air raid or run and shoot elements in the O is so that you just don’t screw pretending on obvious passing downs. You can be dominating and still find yourself behind the chains. So why put a TE on the line and someone five to seven yards behind the LOS when you need to get what a standard run will not give you? Just put five receivers on the field and let the D worry about who’s getting the ball. Enough of this play-action crap when we have somewhere to go.

Also, any hurry-up situation needs a competent sub-system available. The power run can get you three TDs in the first half. But the hurry-up done well gets you an extra one.

…..I knew it was affiliated with Jordan, but wasn’t sure the Nike connection was still there.
That makes sense….thought Jordan had a tiff with Nike and created Jumpman — heard that from someone years back, but turns out that that was an alternative fact. thanks!

Just finished the Coach Phillips interview. Seems like an okay guy, but I’m a bit worried he’s going to interject that Air Raid and Run and Shoot into the program. Those offenses put up a lot of points and can be great, but OSU doesn’t have the QB for it right now and it would mess with the power run game that’s actually been working. I’m a big believer in a good run game, though. Old school, but you have to be able to run for so many reasons (bad weather, break will, etc). Finesse style doesn’t do much for me, and in a way I think finesse offense leads to finesse defense (e.g. the Duck’s “bend don’t break” D when the offenses where putting up huge numbers). I like the tough-minded approach. Hope this Phillips cat doesn’t mess with things too much.

The reason that passing game has been bad is simple:

1. Started Seth Collins
2. Started Darrell Garretson
3. Bad WRs who drop a high % of balls.

I think it’s worth remembering that Collins has never spent an offseason as a WR. I still think he could be really good but he needs practice at the position. Whether he’s recovered enough to participate in practice and conditioning this spring could have a big impact on his performance next year.

Golly, “max competition”? Let’s slow down a bit with those crazy ideas, buddy. You have to start Villamin no matter what! Which is more important, being on the team the longest, or silly things like “playmaking ability”? Gives me a chuckle the way some people in this generation think. hashtag DaysOverPlays

Agree about max competition, and talent should win out. However if it’s close I think experience is the tie-breaker. Rookie mistakes cost you games after all. I think GA would prefer to lean on returning players but obviously sees there are tons of question marks from that group. An all freshman starting WR lineup could happen but I definitely don’t think it’s plan A,

1) I think Bradford starts next year. He’s the one that I think came on strong towards the end of last season. Think he looked great whenever he was on the field and made the most of limited snaps.

2) Collins is a wild card due to injury and inexperience at WR. If he’s healthy enough to fully participate in the offseason, I think he starts. Otherwise all bets are off. Could start, could ride the bench, could use a medical redshirt,

3) Villamin = total mystery. In my opinion, something was going on with him last year. Undisclosed nagging injury, personal crisis…something. I don’t think I’ve seen much precedent with a promising player falling off a cliff like that. Hard to make a prediction but I think there’s a least a chance that he’s able to bounce back strong. The fact that he didn’t transfer is encouraging IMO. He may be competing with Hodgins for a role though since they have similar body types, so he’ll have his work cut out for him.

4) Hernandez – I think he’s the one that ends up buried on the depth chart, though he may carve out a 3rd down role as you mentioned. Reliable possession receiver but no special talent.

I’m not worried about WRs. Looking at the 2-deep, I see Villy/Hodgins, Bradford/Taylor, Collins/Allen/Hernandez. Maybe this is why I was never concerned with Calvin. I couldn’t understand why we were supposed to be worried about a bird in the bush when we already had two in hand.

I think the O-line will be an interesting development. Woods talked about some of the incoming in ways I didn’t see them… even as he was talking and showing highlights. I think we should go over them instead.

Yes, since there are so many more 3 stars they will surpass expectations more than a blue chip will underperform. The problem with stopping there is we don’t know why the blue chip underperformed or the 3-star became an all-american. IMO, a lot of that depends on the system/fit, media coverage (how many of those guys were East coast vs West?), was the player fully developed on signing day or a guy with upside (most 5-stars fail because they were maxed out already and visa versa for 3-stars), work-ethic, etc.

I’d take a class of legit 4-stars over legit 3-stars any day because they usually have one talent that stands out, like massive size or blazing speed, and that gives their development a jump on other guys. So stars kind of matter, but they aren’t the end all. A team can be very successful with legit 3 stars who they develop and fit in perfectly in their schemes. I still think those teams need a few legit 4-stars who are difference makers sprinkled in.

At the level OSU is recruiting right now, the Rose Bowl is probably the max cap in a season where everything goes right. They’re not going to be in any Championship game with these guys, but they could make a Rose Bowl.

You’re going to point at a 25% success rate for five star ratings? From there everyone who rises above their ranking is also a miss. So pointing out that those misses are a smaller percentage of logarithmically increasing subsets doesn’t impress me.

Such a big part of the ratings given to a player is the offer sheet that recruit has.
Thinking of how often rivals has an oregon state target initially listed as 2* or unrated, but soon after they verbally commit to osu, they get re-rated as a middle of the road 5.5 3* guy. That middle of the road 5.5 rating is always going to ensure OSU lands in the 40-50 range for class rankings.
If Oregon State starts to slip, like when they lose a TJ Green or Jamire Calvin, somehow, magically, their next 2* pickup becomes a 3* to soften the blow. Alot of it just feels like massaging the numbers to achieve the expected outcome.

George Moore going from 3* all year, but suddenly becoming a 4* as soon as oregon shows interest. The star ratings often reflect the perceived pecking order of the teams hoping to land the player. It’s always easier for the services to start low and then modify a rating upwards late in the season, so they can say they got it “right”

What you see less of is a player starting out with a high rating and then moving backwards.

Anyway, it’s all just based on people trying to predict an outcome in order to make some money. In the end none of the ratings measure coaching IQ or player IQ, which to me are 2 of the better predictors of team success, although more difficult to measure.

Exactly, and what is interesting is the only time you see a guy drop is if he goes to a JC. He might be a 5-star heading into JC, yet when coming out the same guy will be a 4-star. So two years of experience make the player a worse prospect??

Bumping up the star rating is one thing, but an unrated guy getting a star rating after a P5 school offers him makes sense. Could be that they’d never seen his tape until the offer sheet pushed them to do it.

I’ve wondered the same thing about JC guys who were once highly ranked. I guess they’re factoring in uncertainty from whatever issue landed them in JC in the first place? And/or fewer years of eligibility.

But there are so many 1st round busts….makes you wonder how much GMs are influenced by pedigree. “He was 5 stars and went to Ohio State so he’s a safe pick.” It’s a cyclical pattern of thought. I believe I once read that the pro-bowl is mostly comprised of 3rd round picks and 3-star talents (naturally since there are more of them out there).

When I look at these articles it makes me think that our OSU coaches would be smart to not waste a lot of time going after 5* guys versus 4* guys. The 5* star guys I’m sure take a lot of time to discover and recruit only to have the Alabama / USC type schools come along and scoop them up. Your recruiting odds if you are OSU greatly increase with a 4* recruit and even more with a 3* recruit. And if your are good at recruiting you will find a 4* / 3* who better fits your culture and who you can coach up. Would I like it if OSU was a natural 5* attraction? Hell yes! But reality is we ain’t there yet. I do like the progress / process of GA though.

Oregon didn’t even land a 5 star, and they haven’t since 2013 with Thomas Tyner (who was pretty good, but every back put up 5-6 yards per carry in that offense, so he didn’t seem any better or worse than the rest of them). Oregon’s other recent 5-star was Colt Lyerla, who was a total bust. Before that, Lache Seastrunk, total bust.

Makes me think of Vince Young, and how the mental part of the game is so important. He had been told he was the best for years, was great in college, up until he was actually average in the NFL — mentally he couldn’t handle being average, he was a mess and never could lead an NFL team.
I would take a guy who has the mentality that they need to work for everything, constant improvement, over a guy who thinks he is the best, because he was told so his whole life.
The Patriots are a good example of an organization that finds guys (Julian Edleman – Kent State, Malcolm Butler – West Alabama). We need to have these types of guys in each unit to have a championship caliber team.