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Saturday, March 8

Alright, I know you've been waiting for it, so here it is! The extremely uncertain, but possibly fun, and potential non-snowstorm that is 4-5 days away! Models have obviously been hinting at this (which is why we're talking about it) but at this point in time, all we can really do is to watch for some sort of consensus to take shape. This thread is really just to get the conversation started, and we'll continue to tweak the forecast as the days and hours draw closer. I've got a feeling that we could get 6"+ in some part of our viewing area from this. I know, that's a very broad statement, but it's also a half of a week away. Let's hear your thoughts. Ready, GO!

A little bit of everything. Snow dog threw in thetowel and may have mentioned something about 100 inches along with some anonymous folks and then they were back in it later after realizing the storm threat actually didn't dissapear. CcCC came on long enough to talk some people off the ledge and then finally someone from news 8 started a fresh post after not hearing from them for a while, and now here we r......

There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 5 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Still have an inkling this baby is going southeast. PA/Maryland area, its just the trend! But I'll be as giddy as a school boy if we somehow come away with 1-2 ft! I hope we get it, but my big gut tells me no still..

There will be a Blizzard within the Flower City within 4 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

I would not be to concerned with trying to put snowfall totals on an event this far out. Yesterdays 12Z and todays 00Z ECMWF and GFS runs are starting to come into closer agreement with storm track. The ECMWF still has a stronger LP. It is starting to look more likely WNY will be in for some significant snowfall Wednesday-Thursday morning.

Wow quiet here where is CCCC? So NAM also good run along with 6z GFS and Oz EURO last night. All look pretty consistent with track and us getting at least 8-10 inches. Now waiting for 12z GFS and EURO runs they are now an hour later.

Hello 12z GFS just took a great track similar to EURO and NAM. Plus got stronger like EURO. My prediction is going up now. I say 12-18 inches with the 18 occurring if we get lake enhancement. Not an expert but that is what I see and the confidence level has to be rising with our local mets?

If this is the case, the local weather folks should begin to get on this, and all should begin to make plans for Wednesday night into Thursday. Need to start walking about Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. Would start to cancel or reschedule any plans, business meetings, etc. Wonder how it will impact St. Patrick's Day Parade on the 15th.

Again it is still 3 days out so nothing set in stone. I want to make that clear this is what I think. Do not think south movement will happen but hope it does not move more north with the storm. We are at this time in the bulls eye with the latest EURO (we always have been with this model), GFS and NAM both have come to the EURO as of today.

I must repeat that lake enhancement cannot be overlooked. The projected track is extremely similar to the Valentine's Day storm that gave us a solid 15"+. Still a lot of time with this but the models are beginning to all fall in line...

I will admit the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and now the 12Z GFS have got me VERY excited for what COULD be our POTENTIALLY BIGGEST storm of this season, and possibly in quit a while. If the models verified this would be our biggest impact storm of the season. It is still early but the GFS has trended STRONGER earlier more in line with ECMWF. Time will tell. Very exciting!!!

I am worried at this point that the models have set us up for disappointment. The trend in the past 24 hours could not have been better for WNY, HOWEVER the timing of the phasing of the northern stream energy diving south and the piece of energy coming east out of the Rockies is key for a BIG storm here. Tomorrow the models should have a good handle on the timing and track, hopefully it doesn't change much from here on out.

The 12z EURO starts running now around 2:00 pm our time then the Oz at 2:00am. The next 18z GFS is 5:30 and 11:30. Tomorrow the important runs will be the 12z GFS at 11:30am and the 12z EURO at 2:00 pm. If tomorrow looks like the ones that ran last night and today then we should be in good shape for at least a foot I believe.

In my mind its still too early to get too excited. At this point I would venture a guess that its a good bet we get some snow, but I'm not crossing my fingers for 12+ until either Scott says so or we. Get close enough that models r definitely in agreement.

A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEFS SHOWSWESTERN TO CENTRAL NY RECEIVING THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW...BUTWHETHER THAT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA IS STILL INQUESTION. ALSO...GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL VARIABILITY OF STORM TRACKSAND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SWATH...WILL HOLD OFF A LITTLELONGER ON A WINTER STORM WATCH UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

You know it was a good night when you wake up with fluorescent smiley faces all over your left arm. No I did not just wake up, thanks for asking -_-

I also believe the axis of heaviest snow will be in the Finger Lakes. That of course does not preclude heavy amounts here in Rochester, especially with the big lake possibly getting involved. Modeled amounts look pretty beefy, especially on the NAM (not surprising in the least). We have to keep in mind that the global models can frequently lowball QPF at this range, especially with such a dynamic system. They typically cannot resolve small scale convective features until the short range. Recall how the modeled QPF for our last significant trended substantially higher leading up to the zero hour. I think we look good for a significant snowstorm at the very least out of this. And the way things look right now, it may not be the last shot we have at a good storm this season. But that's a discussion that can wait until after this one.