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There is little doubt that the proximate cause of Zynga's share price dive during Friday and Monday has been Facebook's star-crossed IPO. But bubbling under is a bigger problem - the continuing underperformance of "Draw Something", the hugely popular mobile game created by OMGPOP. Zynga spent more than $200M on acquiring OMGPOP in late March - basically at the very peak of the game's popularity.

During April, the fortunes of "Draw Something" faded at a surprising clip - and during May, the decline turned into a tumble. Among top-grossing iPhone apps, the game dropped out of Top Ten on May 5 - and by May 18, the title was at # 18.

Among top-grossing iPad apps, "Draw Something" tumbled out of Top Forty on May 18. What the fast fades on these two platforms seem to show is not only the foolishness of paying top dollar for OMGPOP at the peak of the "Draw Something" mania. The larger issue here is that this may demonstrate that it is basically impossible to predict the longevity of hot titles.

As "Draw Something" has fizzled, some surprise contenders have soared. "Kingdoms of Camelot" was released soon after "Draw Something", but had a slow burn - it hit #1 position on top-grossing iPhone app chart on April 16.

Back in March 15, "Kingdoms of Camelot" looked like just another middling fantasy game, stuck at #31 two weeks after launch without much momentum. "Draw Something" reigned as #1 grossing iPhone app with massive media attention. It seemed obvious which game was the big winner.

But by May 18, roles had reversed. An update catapulted "Kingdoms" to #2 grossing iPhone app and #5 grossing iPad app - a feat "Draw Something" never managed. Lacking compelling upgrades, "Draw" had dropped out of Top Ten iPhone grossers and Top Forty iPad grossers.

Not only may it be impossible to predict the future success of games based on the first months of sales. But the quality of upgrades may ultimately turn out to have a decisive role in determining long-term success of a title. This makes valuing a mobile app franchise a very tricky business indeed.