Wal-Mart today offered a lower-than-expected first-quarter profit forecast, less than a week after a leaked memo reportedly called February sales a "total disaster." The disappointing guidance follows a fourth quarter in which the world's largest retailer booked less revenue than Wall Street predicted.

Still, Wal-Mart sees first-quarter earnings between $1.11 and $1.16 a share. Wal-Mart blamed an unsettled consumer. Observers have speculated that the payroll tax increases in the U.S. might be hurting Wal-Mart's core lower-income customers worse than thought, and a poor situation in other developed markets are keeping customers from spending freely. Analysts had expected Wal-Mart to earn more in the first quarter. Street estimates were for $1.19 a share.

CFO Charles Holley acknowledged that Wal-Mart faced challenges ahead, but tried to emphasize that Wal-Mart's strong balance sheet and massive operations could withstand the problems. Last week, Bloomberg News obtained an email from a top Wal-Mart executive, Jerry Murray, vice-president of finance and logistics, that showed February as the worst monthly sales start in seven years--a "total disaster," Murray wrote in the e-mail.

For fiscal 2014, Wal-Mart expects to earn $5.20 and $5.40 a share. Analysts had thought Wal-Mart could earn $5.38 a share.

Shares of Wal-Mart in early morning trading rose 2.9% to $71.22. The decline to start the year isn't a problem specific to Wal-Mart. Analysts say competitors like Target and Costco, as well as discount chains like Dollar Tree and Dollar General, could be seeing fewer customers.

During the fourth quarter, the most important period of the year for Wal-Mart, the company earned $5.6 billion, $1.68 a share, from $5.2 billion, $1.52 a share, a year earlier. Analysts predicted $1.57 a share.

Revenue was up 3.9% to $127.9 billion, lower than the Street's estimate of $128.8 billion.