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Tropical Cyclone Iris weakened over the Coral Sea east of Queensland on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iris was located at latitude 19.6°S and longitude 152.3°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-northeast of Mackay, Australia. Iris was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

An upper level ridge east of Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Iris. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear which weakened Iris on Wednesday. The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands southeast of the center of circulation. The bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. The wind shear was not quite strong enough to blow the top off of the circulation, but the shear was preventing upper level divergence on the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Iris.

Tropical Cyclone Iris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical cyclone. However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear and Tropical Cyclone Iris is likely to slowly weaken during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Iris is moving slowly toward the east-southeast. If the vertical wind shear blows the top half of the circulation away to the southeast, then Iris would be steered by the winds in the lower atmosphere. A high pressure system in the lower atmosphere over Australia would begin to steer Tropical Cyclone Iris back toward the northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Iris is expected to remain east of Queensland. Rainbands on the western periphery have occasionally brought rain to the coast of Queensland, but most of the rain is falling over the ocean.

The proximity of Tropical Cyclone Iris prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issued Warnings and Watches for the east coast of Queensland on Monday. A Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Ayr to Sarina including Mackay and the Whitsunday Islands. A Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Sarina to St. Lawrence. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iris was located at latitude 17.1°S and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 210 miles (335 km) northeast of Townsville, Australia. Iris was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (4 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Iris was asymmetrical. Most of the showers and thunderstorms were located south and east of the center of circulation. The bands north and west of the center consisted primarily of low clouds and showers. Tropical Cyclone Iris was near the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge was producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds were producing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably responsible for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Iris will be moving through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Iris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. However, the upper level ridge will continue to produce moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will be strong enough to inhibit intensification. If the strength of the upper level winds slows, then Tropical Cyclone Iris could strengthen, but if the upper level winds get faster, then Iris will weaken. The forecast is for slow intensification, but there is high uncertainty about the intensity forecast.

The subtropical ridge east of Iris is steering Tropical Cyclone Iris slowly toward the southeast. A general motion toward the southeast is expected to continue for several more days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Iris is expected to stay east of the coast of Queensland. However, Tropical Cyclone Iris could come close enough to the coast to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to locations under Warnings and Watches.

Tropical Cyclone Iris redeveloped east of Queensland on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iris was located at latitude 16.9°S and longitude 148.7°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Iris was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Iris formed over the Coral Sea last week but wind strong vertical shear quickly weakened Iris into an area of low pressure. The low pressure system meandered over the Coral Sea east of Australia during the past few days. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Iris again.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Iris was still reorganizing on Sunday night. A distinct low level center of circulation was evident on visible satellite images. More thunderstorms were developing near the center. A primary rainband wrapped around the northern, eastern and southern sides of the center of circulation. Bands northwest of the center consisted mainly of showers and low clouds. Storms near the core of the circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Iris will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Monday. Iris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is 29°C. It is moving around the western end of an upper level ridge. The ridge is producing northwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they may have been the reason for the lack of strong rainbands northwest of the center of circulation. The wind shear is likely to inhibit intensification, but it probably won’t prevent Tropical Cyclone Iris from intensifying on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Iris was moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which was steering Iris toward the southwest. Iris will likely move more toward the south and then southeast as it rounds the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Iris is expected to remain east of Queensland.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Josie was swirling south of Fiji. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Josie was located at latitude 21.1°S and longitude 178.1°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) south of Suva, Fiji. Josie was moving toward the south-southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora made landfall on the coast of Queensland near Pormpuraaw on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 15.8°S and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south of Kowanyama, Australia. Nora was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora moved across the northern Gulf of Carpentaria and made landfall near Pormpuraaw earlier on Saturday. A weather station at Kowanyama, which is south of the original landfall recorded a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h). The station also recorded five inches (128 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is forecast to move southward near the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria for another 12 to 18 hours. Nora is then expected to move westward across the southern end of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was maintaining a warning for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to Karumba. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Karumba to the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory. In addition to bringing gusty winds to the coast of Queensland, Tropical Cyclone Nora will drop locally heavy rain. The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday. At 11:00 p.m EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 12.6°S and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 125 miles (205 km) west of Weipa, Australia. Nora was moving toward the southeast at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology had issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Karumba to Mapoon including Weipa and Mornington Island. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Nora strengthened on Friday as it entered the northern portion of the Gulf of Carpentaria. An eye appeared intermittently at the center of circulation. A band of stronger thunderstorms wrapped intermittently around the formative eye and the strongest winds were blowing in the band of thunderstorms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification. Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move under an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Nora could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora is moving near the western end of a mid-level ridge which is steering Nora toward the south. A general motion toward the south is expected to continue for another day or two. On its anticipated track Nora could approach the coast of Queensland between Kowanyama and the mouth of the Gilbert River in 24 to 36 hours. Nora could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to portions of northwestern Queensland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus was weakening off the coast of Western Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 25.9°S and longitude 107.5°E, which put it about 770 miles (1045 km) west of Carnarvon, Australia. Marcus was moving toward the south-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nora developed rapidly north of Australia over the Arafura Sea on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora was located at latitude 10.0°S and longitude 136.8°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) north of Nhulunbuy, Australia. Nora was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A center of circulation organized quickly on Thursday in an area of thunderstorms over the Arafura Sea and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nora. A primary rainband wrapped around the western and northern side of the center of circulation. An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Nora. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation. Storms around the core were generating well developed upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly and the wind speeds were increasing in response.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued Warnings for the portions of the coast from Elcho Island to Cape Shield including Cape Wessel and from Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pormpuraaw to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland including Mornington Island.

Tropical Cyclone Nora will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Nora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear. Nora is likely to intensify rapidly and it is likely to become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Nora could become the equivalent of a major hurricane within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nora was moving through an area where steering winds are weak and it was moving slowly toward the east. A subtropical ridge east of Australia is expected to strengthen. The ridge is forecast to steer Nora more toward the south in 12 to 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nora is expected to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria toward the coast of Queensland. Nora could strengthen into a dangerous tropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Marcus continued to churn west of Australia. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Marcus was located at latitude 20.6°S and longitude 106.0°E which put it about 555 miles (895 km) west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Marcus was moving toward the south at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 13P developed over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 13P was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 159.7°E which put it about 550 miles (885 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. It was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed within an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Coral Sea on Monday. The strongest rainband extended from northeast of the center, south of the the center and then west of the center. Additional rainbands were forming in other part of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the south of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 13P will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Tuesday. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough near the east coast of Australia is producing northerly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation. The core of Tropical Cyclone 13P is east of the strongest upper level winds, but the winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear. Despite the vertical shear, the tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 13P is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the south. There is some variability in the guidance from the numerical models about the future strength of the ridge. Some models do not strengthen the ridge much and those model predict that Tropical Cyclone 13P will move almost straight southward. Other models increase the strength of the ridge and steer the tropical cyclone more toward the south-southwest. A general motion toward the south or south-southwest seems most likely during the next 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone 13P would pass west of New Caledonia, but it could move closer to the east coast of Australia.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Debbie made landfall in Queensland on Monday night. At 9:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 148.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east-southeast of Bowen, Australia. Debbie was moving toward the southwest at 7 m.p.h. (12 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie intensified rapidly on Monday into the equivalent of a major hurricane. A symmetrical eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye. Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Debbie. Winds to hurricane force extend out about 40 miles (65 km) from the center. Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 140 miles (225 km) from the center.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Debbie was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.6. These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Debbie was capable of causing regional major damage.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie made landfall on the coast of Queensland between Bowen and Proserpine. Debbie will bring strong gusty winds to the portions of Queensland in the path of the tropical cyclone. Tropical Cyclone Debbie will cause a storm surge along the coast near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Debbie will also produce heavy rain as it moves inland and flooding could occur in some areas.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will weaken after the center moves inland. The core of Debbie will move across the Clarke Range and those mountains will speed the dissipation of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie strengthened on Sunday as it moved nearer to the coast of Queensland. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 19.1°S and longitude 150.4°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) east-northeast of Bowen, Australia. Debbie was moving toward the south-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The primary rainband finally wrapped entirely around the center of circulation of Tropical Cyclone Debbie on Sunday and an eye formed. The eye has a diameter of 35 miles (55 km). A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounds the eye and the strongest winds are occurring in that eyewall. Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the circulation. The circulation is symmetrical and well organized. Thunderstorms around the core of the circulation are producing upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions and the pressure is decreasing.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification until it makes landfall in Australia. Debbie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The winds in the upper levels are weak and there is little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Debbie will intensify until it makes landfall. Since an eye has formed, Tropical Cyclone Debbie could intensify rapidly on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is moving around a ridge over Australia. The ridge steered Debbie toward the south-southwest on Sunday. Debbie is expected to start to moving more toward the west-southwest on Monday. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Debbie could reach the coast of Queensland within 24 hours. The landfall will likely occur between Ayr and Mackay with the highest probability of a landfall near Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie moved toward Queensland and strengthened on Saturday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 151.2°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east-northeast of Townsville, Australia. Debbie was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Debbie continued to become better organized on Saturday. A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of circulation. An eyewall appeared to be forming but there were breaks on the east side of the incipient eyewall. Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation. The thunderstorms were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out in all directions. The circulation is very symmetrical and winds to tropical storm force extend out about 190 miles (305 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will be moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Debbie will move moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Debbie will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly once a complete eyewall surrounds the center of circulation. Tropical Cyclone Debbie will become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is moving around the eastern end of a ridge centered over northern Australia. The ridge is steering Debbie toward the west-southwest and that general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Debbie could approach the coast of Queensland in 36 hours. Tropical Cyclone Debbie could make landfall between Mackay and Rollingstone. The greatest probability currently is for a landfall between Bowen and Townsville near Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie will bring destructive winds, storm surge and heavy rain to the coast of Queensland in about 36 hours.