NEW DELHI, Nov. 15 -- Barack and Michelle's visit to India was
certainly tempestuous and meaningful in nuances. In India, Obama was
always vulnerable over the U.S. Af-Pak Policy. He was constantly under
pressure to declare Pakistan a rogue state to which he finally
succumbed, to a degree, when in the address to the joint session of
Parliament, he declared that safe haven for terrorists in Pakistan was
unacceptable. To expect more from the visiting President for whom
Pakistan is the most important ally in fighting the Taliban in
Afghanistan is non-judicious. Obama is fully aware of the culpability of
the Pakistani State, its army and the intelligence set-up in sustaining
and spawning terrorism. The fundamental fault in the American thinking
is that it never spoke of the myriad Islamist terrorist groups growing
up and operating from the Pakistani soil against India.

The U.S. spoke about Al-Qaeda and Taliban alone and not on the
mujahideen outfits targeting India. That was very myopic indeed because,
ultimately, at the operating level the jihadis of all hues merge
together and make a common cause against 'infidels'. Obama has
made some amends now by mentioning Lashkar-e-Taiba in his address to the
Indian legislators. It is and must be of some satisfaction to India.

Obama's support to the cause of India's permanent
membership of a reformed and expanded UN Security Council is a big leap
forward at least at the level of idea. Reformation and expansion of the
Security Council are a long gestation affair and going by the immediate
reactions of the other aspirants great distances are to be covered
before such reformation and expansion take place. Undeniable that
Obama's acknowledgement of the stature of India as the fit
candidate for the Council is a strong positive stimulus for India. These
are the obvious big gains of the Presidential visit. We may not as yet
rejoice over it but we have to consolidate these gains and derive
mileage.

Pakistan and China are the two crucial factors for India and
relationship with the U.S. is to be guided by these two factors.
Unhappiness and some demoralization in Pakistan over Obama cariculla in
India were starkly obvious. Even without exaggeration Obama's
South-Asian trip to India, Indonesia and South Korea skipping Pakistan
has a message which has not been lost among the Pakistanis. India and
Pakistan are separate entities and the quality of their liaison with the
US is different. Pakistan is an unavoidable ally ' though
undependable ' and India is a long term strategic partner with the
potential of a combined role in the world affairs ' anti-terrorism,
trade, commerce, non-proliferation, global financial structure, dispute
resolution and strengthening and expansion of democracies across the
world.

Imtiaz Ahmed, a Pakistani correspondent reporting from Islamabad,
said that Obama not visiting Pakistan is to many Pakistanis a clear
indication of America's change in priorities as well as a signal to
Pakistan to understand the on-ground realities. Ashraf Jahangir Qazi,
former Pakistani Ambassador to India, felt that the Americans could help
Pakistan to overcome its obsession with India. With the Pakistani army
at the helm of affairs, this obsession will never disappear. As Qazi
himself says that 'India is its (Pakistan military's) bread
and butter and was in its DNA'. Foreign affairs analyst Dr. Shamin
Akhtar hoped that there will be realization in Pakistan that the U.S.
does not equate New Delhi and Islamabad together. Journalist Zahid Khan
wrote that Obama by skipping Pakistan has given a clear signal that
India and Pakistan are now seen in different terms by Washington. Former
Ambassador Zafar Hilaly said India 'with its established democracy,
rising economic achievements and a huge market will always play a far
greater role in the scheme of things'.

Sensible Pakistanis have found these meanings in Obama's visit
to India without touching Pakistan and they are airing these too in
their media. It will take time, a very long time perhaps for the civil
society in Pakistan to grasp this mainly because of Pak army's
India-centrism and dedicated resistance to the improvement of Indo-Pak
relations. Happy fall-out indeed of the Obama visit to India and a long
term strong Indo-US strategy partnership is latent in it. At home,
fortunately for India, such a relationship is likely to receive
bi-partisan support.

India-China relationship is another vital aspect of a largely
undeclared component of India-US global partnership. At present, the
U.S. seems a bit trapped mostly by the current financial reality in the
Chinese conundrum. Mutual irritants between the two appear to be waxing.
Among the few listed by the Washington Post are: Obama giving audience
to Dalai Lama, Chinese refusal to condemn North Korea for the sinking of
a South Korean worship, China's bellicose posture to the incident
involving a Chinese fishing boat and a Japanese patrol ship, nagging
differences over mutual trade and suspected Chinese manipulation of its
currency.

China, of late, appears to be in a aggressively emboldened state
and this itself is cause enough for a general discomfort for the U.S.
India has her own immediate and long term problems with China and it is
good for the so-called left oriented JNU type pro-China lobby to look at
these problems rationally and seriously. The fact is that our armed
forces are wary of the Chinese military build-up along the international
border. Indian military also believes that the Chinese are furiously
working on enhancing its cyber-war capabilities. China has the back up
of its superior muscle power to postpone resolution of issues with
India, create new issues and indulge in the strategic planning to deny
India water, oil and safety of the Indian ocean shipping channels.

India cannot ' nor is it India's policy -- flex muscles
to enhance its power of negotiations. Presently, India can at best
resist conventional assaults by China in a much more effective manner
than it did in 1961. But that is not good enough. India requires
international sanction behind its manoeuvres to secure its territory,
resources and stature against Chinese intrusions into these areas. The
most potent instrument for India in this realm is the United States.
Obama's South Asian trip skirting China has lots of meaning. An
eagerness to restrain China is evident in it. Obama's visit to
India has an invitation to India latent in it to join the U.S. in this
long term enterprise. We may seize upon it in terms of our own sovereign
will, national interests and honourable resolution of issues with China.

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