A pair of Mitt Romney supporters, top, are surrounded by protestors against Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney, who was holding private fundraiser at the Hilton Anatole hotel in Dallas on Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2012. less

A pair of Mitt Romney supporters, top, are surrounded by protestors against Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney, who was holding private fundraiser at the Hilton Anatole hotel in Dallas on Tuesday, ... more

Jessica Ruvalcaba of Arlington, Texas, second from left, donned her 2010 high school graduation cap and gown to protest Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney outside the Hilton Anatole hotel in Dallas as Romney holds a private fundraiser on Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2012. less

Jessica Ruvalcaba of Arlington, Texas, second from left, donned her 2010 high school graduation cap and gown to protest Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney outside the Hilton Anatole hotel in Dallas ... more

Photo: Tom Fox / Associated Press

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In Fort Worth

In Fort Worth

Photo: AP

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In Fort Worth

In Fort Worth

Photo: AP

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Mitt Romney speaks at a popular BBQ joint in Arlington.

Mitt Romney speaks at a popular BBQ joint in Arlington.

Photo: AP

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Glad-handing in Texas.

Glad-handing in Texas.

Photo: AP

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Hortensia Wilcox of Allen has a special souvenir -- a hat autographed by the candidate himself, Mitt Romney.

Hortensia Wilcox of Allen has a special souvenir -- a hat autographed by the candidate himself, Mitt Romney.

Photo: AP

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Stopping in San Antonio

Stopping in San Antonio

Photo: AP

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In San Antonio

In San Antonio

Photo: AP

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Stumping in San Antonio

Stumping in San Antonio

Photo: AP

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A campaign event in San Antonio

A campaign event in San Antonio

Photo: Express-News photo

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In San Antonio

In San Antonio

Photo: Express-News photo

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Visiting San Antonio

Visiting San Antonio

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Photo: Express-News photo

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.
Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.
Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

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Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

Mitt Romney speaks at USAA in San Antonio on June 6, 2012.

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Mitt Romney and Rick Perry clash during one of their presidential debates.

Mitt Romney and Rick Perry clash during one of their presidential debates.

Photo: AP

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Fingers wagged as Romney and Rick Perry clashed during the primary debates.

Fingers wagged as Romney and Rick Perry clashed during the primary debates.

Photo: Jae C. Hong / AP

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Rick Perry was harshly critical of Mitt Romney during the primary season.

Rick Perry was harshly critical of Mitt Romney during the primary season.

The nine states that will decide whether Romney or Obama wins in November

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If you’re a voter in Texas — or California — it doesn’t really matter what you think.

The 2012 presidential election won’t be decided in the nation’s biggest states, it will be decided in a patchwork of nine swing states stretching from New England to the Southwest.

Those nine states and their 115 electoral votes — all won by President Barack Obama in 2008 — hold the key to the White House for Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney.

As Republicans open their convention in Tampa, the Democratic incumbent holds a slight Electoral College edge. Obama leads in states (and the District of Columbia) casting 186 electoral votes, while Romney has locked up states commanding 159 electoral votes. Add to that a half-dozen states than lean in one direction or another, and Obama leads 232 to 191.
Both remain well short of the 270 needed to claim victory on Nov. 6 because of the undecided nine.

Ohio and Florida are the largest battlegrounds. Because of Obama’s Electoral College edge — a result of his dominance in large states such as California, New York and Illinois — Romney will have a tough time reaching the magic number of 270 without winning both of them. Take a look at the numbers and decide for yourself.

Here is a preview of the battle for each of the swing states:

Florida
29 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

The ultimate swing state decided the 2000 election and went with the winner in 2004 and 2008. Helping Romney: The state’s economic troubles and massive Republican gains in 2010. Helping Obama: A steady increase in non-Cuban Latino voters and Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s low approval ratings. In a state with a large elderly population, the president also could benefit from a backlash against GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s controversial proposals to transform Medicare into a voucher system and partially privatize Social Security. “Romney will need to convince seniors and those approaching senior status that he will not ‘gut Medicare,’ as the Obama campaign claims, but rather save it from its current unsustainable and perilous course,” said Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones.

Colorado
9 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

Colorado is one of the most independent-minded states in the nation, but it’s been trending Democratic at the top of the ticket. Still, Republicans unseated two of the state’s five House members in 2010, and Obama will have to fight hard to carry the state again.

Iowa
6 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

Iowa launched Obama on the road to the White House with his stunning 2008 Democratic caucus win. He easily topped Republican John McCain in the general election. But a conservative counterrevolution toppled a Democratic governor and three Supreme Court jurists who had approved same-sex marriage. Obama could benefit from Romney’s opposition to tax incentives for the wind energy industry, a major job producer in Iowa.

Virginia
13 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

A massive African American turnout and a suburban surge combined to produce a surprisingly large win for Obama in 2008. A year later, the state led the backlash against Obama’s health-care law by giving the GOP a sweep of statewide offices and complete domination of the legislature. Both parties’ bases are charged up. The race likely will be decided in the economically moderate, socially liberal Washington suburbs. If Romney can chip away at Obama’s double-digit lead in the suburbs, he likely will carry the state.

Ohio
18 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

Ohio, which has voted for the winning candidate nearly every election for the past century, voted Democratic four years ago amid an economic depression and a manufacturing collapse. The local economy has improved since then. President Obama claims some credit and cites the auto bailout approved on his watch. Romney, despite his business successes, has not connected with many blue-collar Ohio voters. “For some reason, Romney isn’t selling in the state as well as we might have thought,” said University of Virginia government professor Larry J. Sabato. For Obama to win again, he needs a strong turnout among African Americans in the Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati areas.

Nevada
6 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

A significant increase in the Latino vote has made this once-reliably Republican state a swing state today. The state suffers from high unemployment, largely due to a real estate collapse. Voters here disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy. But Romney alienated some Nevadans when he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that the government should allow housing prices to continue to fall. “Let it run its course and hit the bottom,” he said, “allow investors to buy up homes, put renters in them, fix the homes up, and let it turn around and come back up.” Romney will need all the help he can get from the state’s sizable Mormon population to offset that gaffe.

New Hampshire
4 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

Obama is not likely to repeat his 10-point victory over John McCain this year. Romney is a former governor of neighbor Massachusetts who owns a vacation property in New Hampshire. His centrist record in Massachusetts plays well with the centrist voters who live near the Massachusetts border. But history is against him: Democrats have carried the Granite State in four of the five past presidential elections.

Wisconsin
10 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

The last Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin was Ronald Reagan in 1984. But the Badger State elected a Republican governor (Scott Walker) and a Republican senator (Ron Johnson) two years ago. And Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, is from Wisconsin. Still, because of its Democratic history, “Wisconsin is only competitive because Ryan is on the ticket,” Sabato said.

New Mexico
5 electoral votes
2008 winner: Obama

President Obama swept New Mexico by 15 percentage points in 2008, but the state elected a dynamic Latina governor, Susana Martinez, in 2010 and features a tight Senate race this year. Unless Romney narrows Obama’s lead among Hispanic voters, he’s unlikely to prevail. But the Land of Enchantment has sided with the popular vote winner each election since 1980. So don’t count Romney out just yet.

If Obama is playing defense in any of these Rust Belt states come October, things are going Romney’s way. But if Romney is spending campaign cash in any Republican-leaning state, it’s a sign of trouble for the challenger.