A great push poll on political questions 10 thru 18, unfortunately push polls don’t accurately reflect voters views on the basic subject being polled, only the views the polling organizations wants reflected. Otherwise not too bad. Conservatives aren’t doing so good on OWS and the Tea Party seems to be taking a dive.

The shocker is the number who are favorable to the term “progressive”. People think they know what the term means: progress, moving forward, sounds nice. They do not know what it means in terms of political ideology. If you exchange that word for the word “socialist”, which is what a progressive is, there would be a much lower approval rating. I have to blame media for the ignorance of what those terms mean. The conservatives face an uphill battle because of ignorance caused by most of the media.

I live in western nc, and I agree with Hayden S. the media uses terms people are unfamiliar with which misleads people when answering certain questions.. after the word “progressive” it should have been in parenthesis “socialist”.. anyone who knows good english could rephrase these questions to aid less educated people in giving their answers.. Keep it simple..only 32 percent are college educated..and even less ever listen to the news..Many of my personal friends have just turned off the “news” as most of it is socialist views no-one agrees with..even Fox news has gotten so liberal, we have turned most of it off.

One of the problems with this poll is that the respondents don’t accurately reflect those who vote. For instance, the median voting age in NC in the 2008 elections was 36.8 years. That means 50% of those NC voters were younger than 37 yrs old. But only 16% of the folks who responded to this poll were under 40 yrs old. And in 2008, only 12.2% voters were 65+ yrs old. Folks 65+ make up at least 24% of this poll. Hispanics were 7.1% of the 2008 NC vote, but they’re only 1% of this poll’s respondents. 70% of the NC 2008 vote was white; at least 74% of this poll’s respondents are white. The fact is this poll talked to a whiter and much older population. Sorry maryze if you think these are ‘socialist’ terms I’m using, but the results and method have to be viewed as somewhat skewed and biased.

TR, the 2008 vote is not necessarily the model for every subsequent vote. Younger and Hispanic turnout will probably be lower in the May primary and in the fall too (although higher than in the primary). For the marriage amendment, for example, there is no reason to think that higher white turnout (Hispanic or otherwise) would affect the result. Black voters are usually more likely to support a marriage amendment than white voters, so the margin might be affected, but that is all. Youngers voters are more likely to oppose a marriage amendment than older voters, but younger voters are also more likely than not to support the amendment. For example, three of the four polls PPP has done on the amendment have shown majority support from 18-29 year-olds.

I’m writing to revise my earlier comment. I noticed an error in my data with regard to demographics (which reflected overall population, not just voters). I apologize. While the age representation remains skewed, the ethnic representation is more accurate. Nevertheless, to Mike’s point, I do believe voter age will make a difference, especially on the marriage amendment. Though Civitas likes to give selective description before some of its questions (see #12 and #15), hence steering the response, it gives no background or explanation to the marriage amendment. Once folks learn more and understand the overreach of this proposed change, many more will turn out and vote against than Mike or this poll indicates, especially now that there will be a Democratic gubernatorial primary. That tide is changing; it’s just that Civitas is counting way too few younger folks to notice. And Mike, while you cite ‘three of the four polls’, I notice that the Feb. 13 announcement of the Jan. 2012 poll has a link to the ‘full results’ but it actually takes you back to the September marriage amendment poll results. If that’s part of the 3 out of 4, you’re counting the same poll twice.

TR, phrasing matters enormously in poll questions. If you ask ‘do you support an amendment to protect God’s definition of marriage?’ you will get much more support than if you ask ‘do you support an amendment that enshrines discrimination in the Constitution?’ There is disagreement about the amendment, and pollsters should not take sides on what it does; instead, they should simply ask the question that will actually appear on the ballot. That is question that Civitas asked here, and it the question that PPP asks in its amendment polls. If you want to get a figure that is close to reality, ask the question that will be on the ballot. The other questions that give ‘background’ are not ballot measures, they are policy issues that are not being voted on in May. If there is a measure that will be on the ballot, however, you need to use the actual language. That was set by the NCGA, not any pollster.

As for PPP’s other polls, I am describing the polls from Oct., Nov, and Dec 2011 and Jan. 2012. Those are available on PPP’s website; I’d put the links here but they are long. The support-oppose-undecided figures on the marriage amendment for 18-29 year-olds are 53-44-3; 33-53-13; 65-29-6; and 51-40-9, respectively. Incidentally, the same figures for Democrats are 49-44-7; 42-48-10; 47-43-10; and 46-44-10. That means that 3 of the 4 polls they have done on the amendment (using the ballot language) have found majorities of 18-29 year olds in support and pluralities of Democrats in support. Democratic turnout could be through the roof, but if Democrats split 50/50 and Republicans support it 80/20, it will only mean more voters, not more ‘no’ votes. Democratic turnout was through the roof in 2008 in Florida, for example, and 53% of Democrats voted ‘no’ on the marriage amendment according to CNN’s exit polls. The amendment still got 62% of the vote because independents and Republicans support it. PPP has released figures in the governor’s race and Presidential race for February, but have not yet released their figures on the marriage amendment (I’m not sure why). It is possible that the polls could shift, but 3 of 4 polls is significant. It indicates certain structural factors about the Democratic base in NC, which includes heavily religious African-American voters, that mean many Democrats will vote ‘yes.’

You are probably aware that Democrats outnumber Republicans in registration significantly in NC, but Republicans have usually won the state in Presidential races. Many Democrats and independents vote for Republicans. Fewer Republicans vote for Democrats. That’s why the question about ‘who you vote for’ came out the way it did.

— If you add wording to the Amendment One question to explain that it would eliminate all civil unions (57% of North Carolinians favor those when asked directly), the numbers would almost certainly be less favorable to Amendment One.

— It is true that capping the gas tax probably would mean slower construction of new roads. However, it also would mean slower repairs of existing roads, which would affect a lot more people day to day and therefore should have been mentioned in the question.

— The question about teacher pay only offered the either-or choice of seniority vs. student performance. 7% *volunteered* the “both” answer, which is pretty high for a response that wasn’t offered. Had “both” been included in the question as a choice, I’m confident that number would have been substantially higher.

— And, finally, a note to other commenters: “Socialism” and “progressivism” are not the same things. Socialism means the government owns the means of production. One can be progressive in one’s politics while still supporting private ownership of most or all means of production, and many people are.

Lex, the thing about the marriage amendment is that the language has been set by the General Assembly. A pollster should not give information about what the amendment may or may not do with the intent of producing a different result. Not only is it irresponsible, but it is less likely to produce a result that is accurate. PPP -a Democratic firm that opposes the amendment- uses the same language, because that is what will actually appear to voters on the ballot.

Mike, legislators can live with their own consciences and those of their respective electorates. And the people who put ballots together must use the specific language approved by the legislators. But pollsters have an affirmative duty to refrain from asking misleading questions.

By withholding the effects of the action in this case (and in the gas-tax question), the pollsters are not framing the question in a way that is going to yield valid, internally consistent results. If the question were validly framed, then the percentages would more closely match the results you get when you ask people directly whether they favor or oppose civil unions.

I was talking specifically about the marriage amendment in terms of wording. Giving background information is useful for policy issues but not for measures that will appear to voters on the ballot with specific wording. What does it mean to ‘validly framed’? How it should be framed is a matter for debate. Why should pollsters take a side? Voters are not going see ‘by the way, this bans civil unions’ on the ballot. If that is what opponents of the amendment want to discuss, they can do that. Presumably, pollsters are not seeking to influence public opinion, but only to measure it.

I mentioned PPP’s affiliation because some other people have suggested that Civitas’ commissioned polls cannot be trusted because it is a conservative organization.

Mike, it’s a matter of literal vs. contextual accuracy. A poll that is misleading to the respondent and a waste of time for the pollster and money for the organization commissioning the poll.

Maybe you didn’t know that. If so, now you do.

Maybe you did know that, and your goal here wasn’t so much to gauge public opinion as to gin up a “poll number” that might be used to bring the bandwagon effect to bear on leaning or undecided voters.

I neither know nor care which is the case in this particular instance. I just know that a significant portion of this poll, as written, is junk. And now you know that other people know it and are talking about it. I leave them to their own conclusions.

Lex, you can disagree with the poll all you like- and every poll PPP has done on the amendment since it was approved last year. If you reject polls that do not push your position but instead use the actual ballot language, that’s your decision. According to this poll -and, as I said, every poll PPP has done- even if all undecided voters opposed the amendment (which will not happen) it would still pass, comfortably. In any case, we can see the actual results in May.

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