NBA Picks: Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

The Eastern Conference’s top team will be at home when the Atlanta Hawks (54-17) welcome the Miami Heat (33-38) to Philips Arena. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 27 and can be seen on Sun Sports and SPSO.

The Hawks played well in their last game, topping the Magic 95-83 on Wednesday. Paul Millsap was a key piece, recording his 15th double-double of the season with 25 points and 11 rebounds. The Heat, meanwhile, are coming off a 93-86 win against the Celtics on Wednesday. Goran Dragic led the game in scoring by accounting for 22 points on 8-for-16 shooting.

Over the last five games, Millsap has taken his game to another level for the Hawks, averaging 20.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers. Dragic has upped his play for the Heat. In the same five-game span, he is averaging 17.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.0 three-pointer.

Trips to the foul line may prove key for the Heat in this one. They’re ranked second in the league in free throw attempt rate (31.2), while Atlanta is among the best at keeping opponents off of the charity stripe (ranking third by allowing a free throw attempt rate of 24.0).

The Hawks have emerged victorious in all three games against the Heat this year, escaping with a narrow 93-91 victory the last time these teams met. Hassan Whiteside had a double-double in the loss with 14 points and 24 rebounds.

The odds for Atlanta and Miami are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Hawks come into this game 54-17 Straight Up (SU) and 43-28 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS against divisional opponents. The Hawks are one of the best in the NBA in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting an impressive .465 from the field. Atlanta is one of the most disciplined teams in the league with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.87. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Atlanta’s stingy defense. The Hawks are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 96.0 points per home game.

Over on the other bench, the Heat have 33-38 SU and 33-35-3 ATS records. Against fellow division members, Miami has a 4-9 SU and a 6-6-1 ATS record.

With the Hawks’ last win against Miami, they evened up the head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings, 5-5 SU. They are also even ATS in their last 10 games. In these last 10 matchups, each team was able to hold the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time.

Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL

Notes

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games.

Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games on the road.

Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road.

Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.

Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 12 games when playing Atlanta.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Atlanta.

Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta.

Miami is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Atlanta.

Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.

Atlanta averages 102.5 points per game (ranked 11th). However, Miami has allowed an average of just 96.7 points per game (ranked third).

Atlanta averages a solid 103.0 points per home game this season. However, Miami is the top-ranked team in points allowed on the road, giving up just 95.6 points per game.

When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Hawks are 39-4 on the season. When the Heat score fewer than 100, they are a losing 13-31.

When the Atlanta Hawks allow at least 100 points they are 15-13, while the Miami Heat are 20-7 when they register triple digits.

The Heat have a defensive rating of 103.6 (ranked 21st). The Hawks rank sixth for their offensive rating of 106.1.

The Atlanta Hawks average 96.6 possessions and 1.061 points per possession in games this season. The Miami Heat average fewer possessions with 93.3, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.015.

The Atlanta Hawks have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking third in the league with an EFF% of 52.6%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Miami Heat have an underachieving 4-19 record.

The Atlanta Hawks rank second in assists per game, making an average of 25.4. The Miami Heat are among the worst in the league with 20.1 assists per game (ranked 28th).

The Atlanta Hawks average 4.7 blocks per game for a rank of 12th. The Miami Heat rank lower (22nd), earning 4.4 blocks each game.