Cal’s march to the Rose Bowl: Anything happen this weekend?

Given Saturday’s result from Seattle, I have added seats to the Cal bandwagon.

You’re welcome …

I picked Cal to win the Pac-10 title for two reasons of equal significance: That’s Cal’s very good, and that USC is as vulnerable as it has been since the early years of Pete Carroll’s tenure.

Through two weeks, as despite the shakiness in Minneapolis, I see no reason to back down from that assessment. (Note: Previous Hotline posts on this topic can be found here and here.)

My guess is that if you gave Jeff Tedford a dose of truth serum, he’d tell you that this was a near-perfect weekend.

Cal’s result at Minnesota was just what he would have wanted — in both the “what” and the “how” — and USC’s loss to Washington was just what he wanted.

The Pac-10 race already looks so much different, and it’s just getting started.

* First, USC’s loss, which was a classic USC loss with all the turnovers and empty red-zone trips. (In the past two years, the Trojans are 2-0 vs Ohio State and 0-2 in the game following Ohio State — which was, both times, in the Pacific Northwest.)

Here’s what it means in the grand scheme of Cal’s march to Pasadena:

If the Bears manage to beat Oregon and USC in the coming fortnight, they’d have a two-game lead on the Trojans that’s really a three-game lead, because of the head-to-head victory.

* Of course, that’s a decent-sized “if” … but hardly an unreasonable one, Matt Barkley or no Matt Barkley.

It’s not like the Trojans scored at will on Ohio State with Barkley healthy, and Cal’s defense is as good as OSU’s, although Darian Hagan had his back to a few too many passes Saturday.

(Given that Barkley was close to playing yesterday, it stands to reason that he’s likely for Saturday’s affair with the you-can-only-hope-to-contain-them Cougars.

And you’d think the Trojans want to get him out there even if they don’t need him vs. WSU because he needs the reps before Oct. 3.)

… Now, a few thoughts on the win at Minnesota:

* Clearly, Maryland is terrible (lost to Middle Tennessee after going to overtime vs. James Madison).

And clearly, the first two games did nothing to prepare Cal for top-tier Pac-10 competition. Minnesota was a bridge to that end — good enough to give the Bears a game in Minneapolis, not good enough to beat the not-hitting-on-all-cylinders-Bears in Minneapolis.

Cal desperately needed to get tested, needed to get pushed into the fourth quarter and make a defensive stand and put together a long drive.

Most of all, Kevin Riley needed to make a big third-down throw — the strike to Jeremy Ross was one of the most impressive and important of his career.

You never want to have to make plays under pressure for the first time in a conference game, on the road, with as much as stake as the Bears will have at stake Saturday in Eugene.

* A minor inconvenience against Maryland and Eastern Washington was a problem against Minnesota and could be a much bigger issue vs. Oregon: The kickoffs.

The biggest problem is not that Cal’s defense can’t handle starting at the 35 or 40 (although it’s not ideal). It’s that the long kickoffs usually follow Cal touchdowns/field goals, which means they’re a momentum changer.

It’s really quite astounding that the Bears have been able to recruit NFL prospects at several of the most difficult positions to fill (defensive line and cornerback) but don’t have anyone who can kick the ball past the 15.

* I thought the offensive line was outplayed for stretches of the game, failing to give Riley adequate protection or carve running lanes for Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen. The Gophers looked quicker and more aggressive.

I’m not sure that Oregon has the talent up front to take advantage, but USC and UCLA do.

* The atmosphere was good preparation for what the Bears will face in Autzen — maybe not quite the decibel level but close enough to have been a worthwhile experience.

* Jahvid Best’s Heisman campaign simply could not have gone any better in the non-conference portion of Cal’s schedule.

His five-TD performance Saturday was crucial in that it came against a Big Ten team on ESPN and at noon eastern — meaning he was a headliner on TV updates and highlight shows throughout the day and night.

If Heisman voters missed the game, they probably saw the replay of Best’s first touchdown run, and they all know he scored five touchdowns.

That was a maximum exposure day for No. 4.

With the numbers and highlights he has compiled and the injury to Sam Bradford, Best has to be considered No. 3 on the list at the moment, behind Tebow and McCoy.

Best will have another huge opportunity in two weeks against USC. He must make sure that game matters with a decent performance against Oregon.

* Funny how perception changes …

Looking down the road, the Oregon State and Arizona games looks far less troublesome for the Bears, while the season-ender at Washington looks far more imposing.

Granted, things could change three times over between now and then.

Jon Wilner

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Tedford -he’d tell you that this was a near-perfect weekend because there is no way that Cal will now overlook Oregon, who’s always tough in Autzen. With Oregon’s win vs Utah, Cal respects the Ducks. With USC’s loss, Cal doubly respects the Ducks who are back to thinking they can win the conference title. Cal v Oregon will go a long way in deciding who potentially unseats USC this season as conference champs. So Cal should have no problem getting up for a second consecutive road game.

CalBear55

The Bears have learned from past mistakes. They are taking it one game at a time. They are focused and have great chemistry. Things so far are coming together. A tough road win (or any road win) is a great building block for the coming weeks. The stars could be aligning for the Bears.

http://outdoors.webshots.com/photo/2981133370072786939ruvisx Sam

Good post Jon, thanks for the quality coverage of college football. Maryland is indeed a work in progress, but remember they did lose to MTS last season as well before finishing at .500 in ACC play and 8-5 overall.

You’ve got to admit that voting BYU at #2 was a bit of a stretch to say the least, but I’ll argue that Cal all the way down at #13 was almost as bad a pick. Your colleagues are going to put us at #6 and the coaches at #5, deservedly so.

tay

What bothered me a little bit with the game is that when best was dominating in the beginning of the game and they went away from and I know the coaches say Vereen is as good as Best or that there is no drop off or whatever and that is total BS. Cal has Jahvid Best for 8 more games play him into the ground because that is the only way Cal has any chance at a Rose Bowl or better

Telrod

From the smoking, charred, fetid ruins of Losingham’s Funeral Parlor and graveyard the Huskies finally heard the Call of the Wild. They also revived their ancient motto, ” The best offence is a good defense.” The game had so many symmetries it’s hard to know where to start. One thing’s for sure, the football dharma has shifted like a high pressure system to the west coast and this coud be our season of sunshine.

After the game Pete Carroll was more than gracious, and of course it was his coaching staff that graduated and came to Seattle to make the difference. It’s one thing to win all the games, capture all the trophies, and raise your team to a pinnacle, but it’s infinitely more difficult to pass on those talents, to infuse those ideas, and impart that generosity of spirit to others. In subtle overreaching ways, Washington’s victory also belonged to Coach Carroll and for that we say, “Thank you kindly”.

There was a shot of him standing at the stadium gates looking tired and perhaps what was going through his mind was Jack London’s iron law of sports, “Youth wil be served”.

TheFarm99

Nice win bears. To quote my 5 year old son, “number 4 is cool!”

really?

penn state wins like theyre supposed to, but you knock them down 6 places? you have more than a handful of teams with losses ahead of them as well so you cant say its based purely on performance

Trojan4Ever

Congrats to Sark and all the Huskies. You beat us, especially in the turnover battle and third down conversion. Actually you shut us out.
Now that we have our annual loss out of the way, we can concentrate on the rest of the Pac-10. FIGHT ON!.

http://outdoors.webshots.com/photo/2981133370072786939ruvisx Sam

This year USC losses will happen monthly. I think you’ll finish very strong and crush whichever team that will be unlucky enough to play you in your bowl game, but having zero experience at QB is a problem that won’t go away in one week or two…

Milo

I think USC proved they can win with Barkley at the helm against OSU…

TrumanHugh

Well, “really?,” just who has Penn State defeated?! Akron? Syracuse? TEMPLE?! And how many of those were on quality ROAD wins?!

Penn State and Mississippi are both so vastly overrated it’s sickening.

Play someone of substance away from home and then you can complain about any perceived lack of respect!

milo

The Wilner bandwagon makes me queasy to be quite honest. Not so much for seeing it but for the reverse jinx element.

Nice win U Dub. Major props for taking down $C. I have to say on a side note, having Jake Locker back is a big plus. The fact that he was out most of ’08 was a big part behind the 0-12. BTW, I do agree that they’re dangerous, like 9 of the Pac-10 teams.

Again, any team in the P10 can beat any other team. PAC TEN FOOTBALL!.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com Jim

The Washington game is looking more and more scary as a trap game for Cal. There may well be a tendency at Cal to think that the season is over after the Stanford game or, at least, to think that it should be over. In addition, there is a bye week between the Stanford game and the game at Washington — time for the season’s wind to go out of Cal’s sails. Tedford will have to reinflate those sails (with hot air?). Finally, the game is in Seattle, and a very hungry Washington may well be playing for something real in the post-season, such as a bowl game or a better bowl game. Washington may be hungrier than Cal, and we now know that this year’s Dawgs have a full set of teeth. No matter how well Cal will have done by then, Washington won’t be intimidated; once you beat USC, you’re not afraid of Cal. Cal needs to really remember the wisdom of Yogi Berra, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

milo

I thought the UW in Seattle was a trap game before their win over $C. Seattle in Dec, new coach and Locker on the roster (as opposed to ’08). ’08 was a disaster for UW and it wasn’t just Willingham. Props to UW for knocking off $C just the same.

ConnieMac

Two thoughts for Cal fans to consider:

Husky Stadium

December

Golden Bear

Decent article, Jon. I agree that Best should be included in the top 3 of Heisman voting (aparently, so do the major networks). But I disagree thathe should be behind McCoy; Best should be 2d. McCoy looked like Jamarcus Russell against TTech – overthrowing receivers for no reason. He wasn’t sharp. On the other hand, if the line opens a hole for Best, he’s GONE!

Golden Bear

One other thing: Great subtitle. It’s worth asking: did anything happen this weekend? Not really. U$C lost, but it doesn’t really affect Cal’s Rose Bowl hopes until $C loses again. Cal still has to beat $C head-to-head or face tying for the conference lead & getting bumped out of the Rose Bowl by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s happened to us a couple of times already, so hopefully we have learned that lesson & stay hungry. Great win for UW. Doesn’t mean squat for Cal.

I don’t know if I’d call the UW game a trap. Right now it looks like it just might be one heck of an important football game. It very likely could mean the Rose Bowl for Cal and a some kind of a bowl for the Huskies. No way anybody overlooks this one.

As great a game as this is shaping up to be I think it sucks that the regular season doesn’t end on rivalry weekend with Stanford. This has happened all too often in recent years and I hope it gets fixed.

http://heliski.com Heliski

Jahvid the Jet is a freak. Riley is coming into his own. Squid anchors a solid defensive unit.

Agree on the kickoffs… what the heck is the issue. Special Teams as a whole have been terrible this year. Is it time to start up the “Fire Alamar” chatter again?

JPark

While the Arizona game does look less and less threatening, the one thing the PAC-10 has learned this past decade is to NEVER underestimate the Beavers because they will take advantage.

Amythicalprogram

Jon

I guarantee you that when the Men of Troy come to Sourberry Canyon with 25K fans, the band, and Traveller the contest will be won already on tradition, mystique and history. This team will end up the year competing for a National Championship. If there has ever been a mistake in the PC era it is to take teams too lightly at the beginning of the year. We did that in 2003, 2007, 2008 and this year. However if there is any lesson to learn we always come back and come back stronger. What is a wake up call for us will be a nightmare for the rest of the dwarfs.

MoreNCsarecoming

I guarantee you that when the Men of Troy come to Sourberry Canyon with 25K fans, the band, and Traveller the contest will be won already on tradition, mystique and history. This team will end up the year competing for a National Championship. If there has ever been a mistake in the PC era it is to take teams too lightly at the beginning of the year. We did that in 2003, 2007, 2008 and this year. However if there is any lesson to learn we always come back and come back stronger. What is a wake up call for us will be a nightmare for the rest of the dwarfs.

Hail2Calif

To all those looking more than 2 months down the road to call ‘trap games’ etc – there is way too much football to play between now and then.

The only way Cal overlooks UW is IF (1) We have already clinched the Rose Bowl the game prior at Stanford and (2) UW is not fighting for something like a post season game.

If we have to win at UW to clinch the Pac-10 championship, there is no way we overlook the Huskies.

Doesn’t mean we can’t lose, afterall, it is a Pac-10 road game – but we aren’t going to overlook the Huskies if it is a meaningful game.

Vintage1960

Back into the cave troll! Guarantee u$c loses minimum 3 games in conference play this year – woof woof woof!

PapaBear

Oregon is a trap game………………………STAY FOCUSED!

Cal Ferrari Martin

SPECIAL TEAMS PLAY HAS BEEN DISGUSTING. I’m terrified of another special teams meltdown in a big game like USC 2004. We need to correct these issues now.

Flying up for the Oregon game Saturday- 4th time in a row at Autzen (since my first year at Cal). If you haven’t been, try to experience it one of these days.

Go Bears!

MoreNCsarecoming

Here someone not drinking the Kool Aid Jon. Notice the bowl game for Cal State.

LOL… hard to take those bowl projections seriously when they have Cincinnatti in the NCG!

JP

You know… I love Cal more than anyone who has not had any family members go to Cal.. not sure why I am a Cal fan, frankly.. I just am (from Bay Area, I guess).

Anyway – one thing I do like… is Cal playing Oregon BEFORE USC. Because the stakes are HUGE for the Oregon game.. it’s not like Cal can look past Oregon.

Secondly, I am REALLY, really worried about Cal’s schedule. They have a very tough schedule. at Washington (where they rarely win), at UCLA (where they rarely win)… and, obviously, USC and at Oregon (both, where they rarely win – yes, I do know Cal beat Oregon there last time).

There are way, way, way too many potential pitfalls. But the truth is, as the author sort of alluded to, is that a win against USC all but locks a Rose Bowl bid… even if they lose to Oregon and Washington… a two loss Cal team will most likely get the nod over any other 2 loss team (even USC.. given head to head).

If Cal can take out both USC and Oregon… you can send them the roses for sure.

All in all.. it is way, way too early to even have Cal favored. They;ve only played one tough game… USC loses a game every year and still manages to get to the Rose Bowl (because Cal can’t beat them!).

Golden Bear

I agree with CFM. Special teams play is atrocious. I was worried about this from the first week (when Wilner was giving Cal a universal A+), & it hasn’t improved since then. It may not have mattered against lesser competition, but once we start playing the top half of the Pac-10, it is going to cost us. CFM is right that Cal outplayed $C on both sides of the ball IN LA in 2004, but lost because of lousy special teams play. The current kicker routinely gives the opposing team the ball on the 15 or better with room & time to run for more. Couldn’t Cal just just yank someone off the rugby team to kick off? They MUST find a kicker if they are to have any chance at a BCS bowl.

P.S. — U$C will lose another conference game this year. I know they have the most blue chip recruits, but I haven’t been that impressed with them this year. There is a reason that Pete Carroll lied to Mark Sanchez & told him he wasn’t ready for the NFL (tell that to the Patriots): Carroll knew his dynasty would be in jeopardy without him — and it is.

Vintage Cal

To: MoreNCsarecoming – just not this year!

Glad you could find one projection at one site that still believes in USC as a Rose Bowl participant. With your blinders on you’re missing out that all the credible sites (such as espn & cbs sportsline) see USC as a Holiday Bowl candidate.

milo

GB, not only does $C miss Sanchez (that’s why Pete was pissed) but they also miss Norm Chow and his legacy (Kiffin and Sark).

I was reading some of the blogs on $C blogs and apparently $C is going after the new OC (Morton) and the guy calling the plays (Bates). The offense by committee worked under Kiffin and Sark but without the continuity plus the lack of talent, I think $C is up the creek.

http://leinart.ytmnd.com MoreViolationsAreComing

Special teams play has been atrocious in terms of coverage and kickoffs.
I will agree with that, we should have D’amato kicking off and Seawright handling the fg duties. Tavechio is horrid he should stick to xps Not sure why Seawright isn’t playing he was a stud last year before the injury.
Even so, all excuses about the special teams and the difficulty of winning on the road aside, if we are a national championship caliber team then we just won’t lose. It’s as simple as that.
Oh and I’m pretty sure you picked USC preseason jon.

Golden Bear

@ MVAC ~ Hilarious! …And probably true.

milo

Tedford said today that D’Amato would be this week’s kick off guy.

Golden Bear

Yeah, I read that, too. In fact, D’Amato took over kickoff duties after halftime of the Minnesota game. 1st kick was a touchback, but the next 2 went to the 18 & 25 yard lines.

calgldnbear

Amy!!!!!!!! You showed up after all….. after the U$C loss, we didn’t think we would hear from you. Glad to know you are ok after Cal won and the Toejams lost…. too bad, so sad…. GO BEARS!!!!!!!!

MoreNCsarecoming will be spending more time at this site, now that she is being regularly blocked by J. Okanes’ Bear Talk for inappropriate contributions. Hey MoreNCs (just not this year!): How many sites have you now been blocked from? Yes, even including the pro-SC blogs that can’t stand you. Half a hundred?

nonplussed

RE: post 36

From the link:

“I thought that [the referees] missed a call there,” Brewster said. “As I looked at the replay, you know, it looked to me like a helmet-to-helmet contact, and, you know, they didn’t call it.”

WTF? What replay was Brewster looking at? That hit was shown over and over during the official review to determine the TD and after. The TV announcers were specifically calling out the possibility of leading with the helmet. In the end all agreed that it was shoulder pad to chest. It was just a good clean hit to stop a TD (which, BTW, it did IMO).

The helmet to helmet on the punt return was accidental. The Cal guy led with his face mask, which is hardly the weapon of choice for thugs. Tedford and the player even apologized.

Golden Bear

@MoreViolationsAreComing: *yawn.* that hit on the TD was already replayed on TV several times and it was clear (the announcers agreed) that it was a clean hit (shoulder to chest). This is football; if Gopher-Boy can’t take a hit he should play badminton.

Personally, I understand the rule, but I think enforcement needs to be worked out. I’ve seen a few instances already where players were penalized for doing his job: hitting the other player & trying to dislodge the ball. In fact, it is my opinion that the penalty on the Cal player for hitting the kick returner was just such a mis-call. To paraphrase the “Bad News Bears – Breaking Training”: “Let the kids play!”

Golden Bear

In re the Gopher TD where he got hit hard, was bleeding on his chin, & remarkably held onto the ball: the TV angles we saw did not seem to indicate that he got into the endzone. With all the different camera angles & replay equipment at football games these days (especially pros) why don’t we have a bird’s eye cam that could definitively prove to all TV viewers (& referees) when the ball crosses the plane?

Just asking….

PapaBear

Most helmet to helmet hits are accidental. Remember, all the parts of the offensive and defensive players are in constant motion and the helmets easily can collide without intent or purpose.

Golden Bear

Yeah, the punt return helmet contact was actually instigated by the Gopher player. The Cal player was already on a trajectory for his chest when he muffed the ball and looked down. It was his bringing his head down to find the ball that put his helmet in the line of fire. Can we let people play football already? Isn’t that why they wear helmets in the first place — because contact is expected?

Cal fans, we need to stop all this talk about USC and about Washington being a trap game!!! Cal needs to take this season one game at a time, which means right now the only thing they’re thinking about is Oregon. All those other games are important, surely, but let’s not make the same mistake as always and get ahead of ourselves. It’s a long season. The team looks good and my hopes are high– rightfully so I maintain– but still, one game at a time! It remains to be seen what this team is really made of…