Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Waiting for the wheel to spin

And waiting.

As seen previously, consecutive states on this chart tend to migrate around the big ellipse in a counter-clockwise direction. Our current position is on the bright green (or yellow) dot near the bottom right of the ellipse, just below the silver blow-off.

Since 1990, the level of Brownian motion in the orbit has increased notably. Half of the big ellipse was traced out between 1984 and 1989. The other half has only been traced out since 1990.

How did the commodity market change in 1990? Some new rules, perhaps--or was it just the evolution in emphasis from production to financialization, as seems to have happened in other markets over a similar timeframe?

I'm not sure if it's connected, but I note that the Common Fund for Commodities was established in 1990. I may be cynical, but there sure are a lot of organizations which seem to do the opposite of their purported purposes.

Anyhow, going forward, I expect we will start to grind our way upwards to a higher gold/oil ratio--but the process will be slow and noisy.