How Theresa May Botched Brexit

The Times page 1 is of January 18, 2017. Negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union about Brexit were just beginning. The "you'll be crushed" arrogance in the headline characterizes the attitude the British government under May demonstrated during the talks.

Recently that attitude has somewhat changed. This screenshot was taken about an hour ago:

Theresa May has said she "sincerely hopes" the UK will leave the EU with a deal and she is still "working on" ensuring Parliament's agreement.

Arriving in Brussels, she said that she had "personal regret" over her request to delay Brexit, but said it will allow time for MPs to make a "final choice".

At the EU summit the PM spoke to the other 27 leaders to try to get their backing for a delay beyond 29 March.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn said his talks in Brussels were "very constructive".

BBC Brussels correspondent Adam Fleming said Mrs May spoke to EU leaders for 90 minutes and was asked several times what her contingency plans were if she lost the third "meaningful vote" on her deal in Parliament.

French President Emmanuel Macron has warned that if MPs vote down Mrs May's EU withdrawal agreement next week, the UK will leave without a deal.

May asked the EU to move the hard coded March 29 Brexit date to June 30. She may be given May 23, the day of EU elections, as a compromise but only if her deal passes the British parliament.

A no-deal crash out on March 29 would create utter chaos for months. It would be catastrophic for Britain's economy.

May's withdrawal agreement was already voted down twice. If it comes to a third vote in parliament it is very likely to fail again.

We’ve been more pessimistic than most commentators about the likelihood of the UK escaping the default of a no-deal Brexit. We may not have been pessimistic enough.

There is still the possibility that May takes a 180 degree turn, but that would be the end of her career and likely also the end of the Conservative Party:

Now there is a popular push for an Article 50 revocation, with a petition already at over 400,000 signatures as of this hour. But as we’ll discuss, May would have to do a complete reversal to revoke Article 50, which is within her power, not just a Prime Minister, but also implementing the motion by Parliament rejecting a no-deal Brexit.

Article 50 is the part of the British withdrawal law that governs the Brexit process. If May revokes it, there is little chance that another Brexit attempt will ever be made. The majority that voted to leave the EU will have been betrayed.

An analysis by the BBC Europe editor says that the "Leaders want to avoid no-deal Brexit":

[W]hile EU leaders have ruled out re-opening the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the "backstop" text, you can bet they'll discuss a longer Brexit delay at their summit today.

This is, in my view, a misjudgment.

Yes, under normal circumstances and with a competent and trustworthy negotiation partner on the British side, ways would be found to fudge the issue and to avoid a Brexit in all but its name. That is why I predicted long ago that Brexit was not gonna happen.

But May has really done everything to affront the other side of the table. She did not stick to commitments she had given, delivered papers too late to properly discuss them, and came to emergency summits called on her behalf without anything new to offer.

Matthew Parris, a conservative political commentator in London who originally favored May, now remarks of her:

"She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly."

The leaders of other EU countries also have had it with here. The voters on the continent do not care about Britain. There will be no punishment for Merkel or Macron for letting Britain crash out.

The EU will survive without the United Kingdom. With a no-deal Brexit the United Kingdom is likely to fall apart. Within a few years North Ireland would join the Irish Republic, peacefully one hopes, and Scotland would vote to leave.

A bit of hope may still rest in this one line in the BBC report which it leaves unexplained:

Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn said his talks in Brussels were "very constructive".

Is there a EU deal being made with the opposition leader and behind Theresa May's back?

B I think it should be understood that the British people voted to Leave.
We want out.
We want our sovereignty back.
Our democracy back
The right to govern ourselves again - a 800 year tradition..
Article 50 was always a trap.
It should have been done by the repealing of the 1972 act which took us in.
As Gerard Batten - a brilliant strategist who actually masterminded the UKIP campaign to get a referendum and win - has written in length on how it could and should have been done.
We British voted to leave.
Not get stitched up in a May deal which means we never can.
Leave means leave.
Whatever the cost - a no deal is fine with most of us.
Whatever it takes we expect to leave on March 29th as promised by the British Prime Minister 108 times in the House of Commons.
Leave March 29th or
I have MY yellow vest waiting.

b is being very unfair to May, as is everyone in the MSM. I don't know why some non-Brits are taking this so personally. (I'm not from the UK myself)

May undertook efforts to enforce the vote and leave EU. EU proceeds to offer deals which are essentially meaningless and mean the UK is defacto still in the EU. In general EU officials carry themselves appallingly in public comments despite May being quite neutral.

Eventually May reaches some kind of deal and puts it before parliament. Despite being as unobjectionable as possible to those who'd rather not leave the EU, whilst still being a deal which allows the UK to leave the EU in forms other than name only, parliament continue to vote down any and all deals and generally act in petty ways to disrupt May's government. Parliament then proceeds to autistically screech about a no-deal Brexit despite they, themselves deliberately voting down every deal May brought them and trying to oust her in no-confidence votes in order to generate exactly the 'chaos', they constantly wail about. Now the speaker is acting in the most insanely ways to damage the legitimacy of parliament too.

Dealing with internal schisms relating to Europe has brought down more determined Tory leaders than May. I'm not sure why she is specially being given the blame. I find it hard to see any of her actions as being problematic. She seems to genuinely have got on with trying to enforce Brexit. *Larry David shrug*

Reality is this was about freedom of movement and I think most other European countries other than Ireland don't understand why this is an issue because they had a tiny fraction of the intra-EU immigration that Britain and Ireland have been going through the last 10 years. (Because every EU country but them and Denmark put in place a 5 year moratorium on recognising the new states freedom of movement, leaving the UK and Ireland to receive the full whack, transforming their labour economies massively) It's truly staggering in number and dwarfed other forms of immigration during that period. It was also characterised by it's highly unskilled nature. Corbyn, for his part, does understand the issue and has spoken out about the burden of so much unskilled labour from the EU in the past.

We the great unwashed are not happy with our representatives in Parliament who seem to think that this is a normal Law where they were elected to vote on their conscience. It is not, there are voting to implement a clear instruction to action Brexit.

When we voted there was no discussion of staying half in like May's deal, we wanted out regardless of any chaos as forecast in Project Fear at the time.

A problem we have is that the entire MSM is behind May's deal. There is no, no discussion on the benefits of a clean break.

If we clean Brexit then those countries with their nose in the EU trough will have to agree between themselves who gets what share of the cuts as the £1B a month cashflow that the UK gives them stops, starting immediately. That they don't seem to have started those discussions yet leads me to believe that they have no intention of allowing a clean break. We should expect that there will be some kind of last minute offer by the EU.

It would take a lot more courage than has been showed to date by them for MPs, whose votes are public, to go against the Brexit Referendum and kill Brexit. Bluntly, many of them, of all Parties, would be signing their own job resignations.

Good god, this Brexit soap opera never ends, does it? It just keeps dragging on, endlessly....another vote...another extension...another meeting with Brussels heads, etc. And it's so fucking confusing! First they have the referendum to do the total Brexit–and it passes! But instead of doing what the voter's voted for, the PMs and MPs keep fucking about, trying to undo the vote results....soft Brexit w/cheese....med soft Brexit with trade bennies....no hard Brexit pleeze. Holy fuck, the entire thing is quintessentially British! No humans on the planet surface quibble, nit-pick and natter on like the Brits. They are the hands-down masters of hen-peckery. Nobody comes close. This whole Brexit fiasco is a fine example of their character. Don't get me wrong I really like the Brits in general for their gregariousness and tendency to party and drink excessively. But back to Brexit: they should do the hard Brexit. Seriously. Just get the fuck out of the EU. It's what the majority of Brits want. They don't want the refugees..they obviously don't want to be a team player and follow all the EU requirements and laws. So bite the bullet and get OUT. Life goes on, give it a go with no EU association. And so what if N. Ireland goes with Ireland? It should anyways! They took it from them way back when. If Scotland leaves, good for them. And Wales too! We're witnessing the incredible shrinking UK, and it is indeed a most satisfying spectacle :-)

It is inconceivable now that there would be an extension, that there would be a revoking by May of article 50, or simply that there would not be a no deal crash-out.
I draw a comparison between Ukraine's folly delusion that they can join the EU and ditch Russia and live well, with the UK's folly that they can leave the EU and have other options. It reminds me of the quip we used to hear as we visited the UK from Europe: "There's fog over the Channel. The Continent is isolated."
The UK has to deal with Europe. A WTO deal is also a deal, be it a very bad one which will set in motion lots of tariff-tit-for-tat punishing. Europe is just the bigger entity; it does not need the UK. The UK has the EU as its main trading partner - but not only that; all of its trade pacts with other countries have been through the EU. Not only do they have to, in the end, negotiate a deal with the EU from scratch; they have to do so also with all the other countries.
It's folly; most of it is based on psychology of loss of sovereignty and pure racism.
Ukraine has to deal with Russia. It chose not to, to exacerbate relations; it is now suffering the consequences. The UK's fate is likely not as abject as Ukraine's was and is; however it will likely also fall apart. Will London's financial centre identity also fall apart? Not likely - but it will become even more of a money-laundering hole than it was to date. Look for less values, not more; less transparency, more bribery, as the London trade crowd tries to preserve their life quality.
Look for even more of death knell absurdities by MI6 - the chemical sagas in Syria and Skripal are but a way to somehow squeeze some kind of foreign policy NATO lead position out for the UK while in actual fact their leverage into the EU has dissipated. I applaud the demise of the British aristocracy; it will be for Corbyn to rebuild the country and likely to do so with much more of a mandate after this debacle has been spinning the trough for months.

Globalization, fake interdependency really just abject dependency, food insecurity, abdication of sovereignty, double standards for who is and isn't allowed to run corporate welfare states and set up barriers and dump, yup, globalization's got it all.

As every British faction is demonstrating with their dithering and equivocations, their attitude toward the EU is: Can't live with it, can't live without it.

(Well, the fake "left" are just can't-live-without-it, since they abdicated what was supposed to be their anti-globalization role from day one of the Brexit saga.)

Brexit sure has made a lot of people who talk a good game show their cards. I was cheering it on from day one, because the EU needs to be broken up completely and here's a start. The break-up of the UK also would be a fine thing.

Poor Britannia,,, From world power to Globalist Serfs. Yes the sun never set on the Empire. Now the only sun they see is what the EU allows. Their demographics so messed up they'll be a 3rd world country soon if not already. The stiff upper lip Brit is now limp,,, in every category.

No I'm not laughing,,, My country, the US of A, has the same destination dialed in, just a slightly different route. We're porpoising like the 737 MAX without the safety option, soon we'll all be citizens of the World Corpgov. Joy!

"Here’s something we can all agree on. British 'Democracy' is not fit for purpose. The party system the method of election the relationship between people the legislature and the executive is all now dysfunctional. Something has to give something has to change #BrexitShambles"

From my perspective, George is correct. And as commentators reflect here, at bottom is a longstanding Class War that's been in existence as long as the British state.

Eurocrats probably have scant needs to be super nice to EU. Politically, various countries have some wishes, so as long as they follow that their lower parts remain fully clothed. Practically, Brits are hard to please, preoccupied with winning some points against each other. And realistically, can anything really bad happen to them? In the worst case, surely US military will ferry some humanitarian help, perhaps dumping it at Irish border.

Britain in recent years has offered the most vivid example of genuinely disastrous government.

First, David Cameron, likely the most incompetent Prime Minister in British history, offers a vote to the public about remaining in the EU.

It was something he didn't need to do at all, and it came after forty years of being part of EU. And, in such a huge and complex matter, not well-understood by the general public, it makes little sense to hold a vote, especially coming at a time of considerable public agitation over refugees and migration, a highly emotional topic where cool-headed facts did not at all feature. If for some reason you insisted on a vote, it should only have been held after, say, a one-year period of public education and discussion and debate. It is a hugely consequential decision.

Leading up to the vote, he ran around flapping his arms and pretending to play statesman, telling people he'd sure stay in the EU with the adjustments in terms he had obtained from Brussels.

Then we have Theresa May spend a few years trying to sort out terms with the EU, making quite a spectacle of herself on several occasions, as having cabinet ministers quit and having votes against the government's position, as well as forming an alliance from hell to stay in power.

Yet, the bottom line, as they say, remains clear: Britain will suffer in leaving the EU, no matter under what set of terms.

And the EU itself, one of the world’s largest economies, has been given a serious wound at a time of other menacing economic and social problems, and that in a world with many signs of weakness and instability.

May insists, bull-headedly, on going ahead with Brexit, yet so easily she could just declare that she, as Prime Minister, now sees how much damage this is doing and will not proceed, in the national interest. She could easily also hold a second vote, something polls suggest would go the other way from the original vote.

But no, damn the torpedoes, we're going full-steam ahead.

Rational government? I think not. And it is just one portion of what we see in a number of Western countries and around a number of important issues.

Oh well, maybe people can console themselves with, "At least it's not quite the vicious lunatic government we see in the United States, rampaging through every country where it finds anything it dislikes, threatening everyone with sanctions or sabotage or war, and, of course, threatening the world’s very stability."

Does anyone believe the world is going to survive this period and maintain its economic and political and social health? I certainly don’t.

This entire mess, start to finish, is a botched attempt to hold the tory party together. The welfare of the British people no longer has anyimportance whatsoever to the Tories.

There are 55 million British subjects ( By law we are not citizens of our country but subjects of the British Monarch ) of working age and 17.4 million voted to leave. That's not a majority. And the Brexiteers insist having been allowed to vote once we can never vote again.

Austerity is punishing the innocent for economic crimes committed by a small elite and millions who voted to leave did so to strike back at them. We, as a people, are dimly aware in an unfocused way that we have been swindled and cheated by a smug elite for decades.
How ironic then that it is an unprincipled lazy oaf like Boris Johnson (A man fired twice for lying to his boss) and a weaponised banker like Rees-Mogg who are deciding our futures.
My country is breaking up.
Whats left will be a small, weak, disliked and untrusted remnant. Wide open to exploitation by other powers, State and non State.

I think you are being too kind to May. The 255 page deal she presented to the Cabinet last August I think, has barely changed since then. What has happened is the 16 or so really nasty clauses in it have become hidden under the Irish Question. It looked for a while as we were being swept towards agreeing the May deal if only the EU would agree a form of words on the Irish backstop, ignoring the other issues. Then Bercow stopped that by saying that Parliament couldn't keep voting on the same measure until it passed, a favourite EU tactic (you will vote until you vote the right way).

I suspect that the EU may indeed change the backstop words and it will pass, but there are increasing reasons why they won't.

Yesterday in Dutch elections a populist party did very well indeed, this does not bode well for the established order in the EU elections on the 23rd May. The EU really needs the period of chaos that will start after a clean Brexit to scare the European electorates into voting conservatively, forcefully making the point that if this was happening to a country the size of the UK, God help them if they wanted to do the same.

b, I disagree with your comment "A no-deal crash out on March 29 would create utter chaos for months. It would be catastrophic for Britain's economy". The plan to go zero tariff/keep EU regulations in place will negate a good proportion of the issues and may force the EU to do the same, at least until the new Commission is in place until the Autumn. My reasoning on this is with zero tariff there will be no halt to EU trucks coming into the UK to deliver product and produce. The problem will be when those trucks, plus Irish trucks and UK trucks head back or to the EU. If they put up barriers there will be huge outbound queues towards Dover. This will cause huge economic outcries across the EU putting big pressure on politicians to sort it.

We need to remember that EU agricultural producers had a dry run of this five years ago when Russia shut their borders overnight to EU produce with lorries with perishables on board with nowhere to go. That cost billions of Euros and I doubt the Dutch and Spaniards in particular want that to happen again.

Incidently, zero tariff will have little financial effect on the UK as the revenue from external tariffs goes straight to the EU funds, not the countries.

Once a decision is made and we are not going to gift our ace , £39B, away the UK gets to be in a much stronger position, especially as this time we might have a decent negotiating team in place as they will not be trying to 'remain but not remain' as we will be out.

We will also be able to re-connect with suppliers in the Commonwealth. Be good to get New Zealand butter again.

Theresa May is a remainer and I still think she's playing 4D chess (with the objective of imploding Brexit from within while making it look like an accident). Was the Conservative Party so unified around Brexit, she wouldn't be PM: it would be Leadsom, Johnson or many other brexiter bigwigs already in position of power in the Party.

The EU would survive without the UK, but that would be a huge downgrade and a definitive strategic defeat. When the EU was created in the 1990s, expectations were big: it was expected to supplant the USSR as the USA's rival, with realistic chances of surpassing the Americans in the near future. When the Euro was created in 2000, many pundits believed it would supplant the US Dollar as the world standard fiat currency. The hype was huge.

That ended. After the creation of the EZ, the economies of the EU began to diverge instead of converge: the poorer members begun to be poorer; the richer, richer. After 2008, the EU's economy essentially went full Japan and stagnated. It is only a matter of time before it begins to recede.

If the UK exits, the EU will devolve into a mere Carolingian project, with much humbler goals.

In his tweets, Corbyn says he's laid out Labour's alternative plan which is described in the short vid at the link above. Elsewhere I saw a figure citing 63% of Britons voted for Brexit, which is consistent with what Craig Murray's said about the voting share between Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland--all of whom cast majorities for Remain.

Corbyn's in a pickle since he's trying to abide the will of Britain's voting public despite knowing Remain is better for the overall British interest. Why Brexit gained a majority isn't hard to fathom--Tory and Blairite neoliberal austerity have ruined the British nation to please the City of London pirates. May appears to favor the hard fall out of spite for the opposing constituency, which many see as her channeling Thatcher's ghost. And the only reason May's government remains is through the Blairite 5th column's treason. IMO, Corbyn's terms are probably acceptable to the EU; but the EU doesn't want to see him in charge of England as his domestic plan goes against EU neoliberalism.

The ball's back in Parliament's court, so we'll need to await events there.

I have one honest question about Brexit. Why is the following quote true?

A no-deal crash out on March 29 would create utter chaos for months. It would be catastrophic for Britain's economy.

I have been trying for months to understand the mechanism by which this catastrophe will occur, and I cannot find an explanation anywhere. I find only people asserting that it will be so. They may be right, but its not clear to me why.

From a naive point of view, consider that other countries trade with the EU and don't suffer from a catastrophe. So why can't the UK?
NZ trades with the EU and as far as I can tell they're not living in "utter chaos".

What is it exactly that will create "utter chaos"? If someone knows I'd be very grateful to find out.

I am not a Brit. I was interested to read Emily's comment. To an outsider it seemed that the vast majority of the elites in the UK did not want to leave the EU (why not, it is working great for them). That includes the leaders of the Conservative Party. May did not want to 'leave', so she carried out a totally incompetent negotiation and came back with a bad agreement, in the hope that would lead ... somehow, to Britain remaining in the EU.

Leaving the EU and relying on WTO rules for trade would be messy, but mostly because no plans have been made, even with 2 years to carry them out. How is a private company in the UK going to make provision for the future, when they have no idea what that future would be? To end up in a state where the only remaining option is a complete break, with no planning is criminal incompetence. (Aside: May's ridiculous Skripal fiasco was a pretty good demonstration to the outside World of her low ability.)

One thing Britain has going for it, is that they did not adopt the Euro. That was possibly the smartest decision made by a British government and people in the last 60 years. I'm pretty sure Britain can survive without the EU. They might do even better if they ditched the Russo-, Sino-phobia.

To rapefresh people's and b memory here is in brief how things developed as in fact it did not start aft Bexit vote but two year before at least and had to do with Cameron campaign catering to anti EU UKIP and ther own anti EU factions promising vote when elected and he was in landslide and EU urgent push for federalization of EU and banking union after banking and economic collapse of 2008-2012 among EU countries like Spain Greece and Portugal.

Here is the story that had to end up with what we may only call political extortion.

Closer and closer we get to March 29, 2019 deadline more peole are more confused and more chaotic U.K. Government seems to be and in fact by today's vote outcome May and Tories doom to be more interested and willing to hold on to power amid their collapsing polls than to move one inch forward from their situation of first morning after Brexit refendum on 2016

But despite of all attempts to obfuscate truth one can only be confused if one ignores public and secret reasons while Cameron even threatened Brexit vote already in 2015 and went through it in 2016.

For those who already forgot, officially it was about antiterrorism, security and hence controlling immigration flagship of Tory political campaign that brought them overwhelming electoral win as well as some noises that EU rules and laws stifle economic development and the British lose more in EU payments than they gain.

Obtainimg strong electoral mandate Cameron went to Brussels to supposedly negotiate better deal with EU ESPECIALLY for security while in fact he went there trying to bully the shape future EU integration especially in political realm and even more in realm of banking Union and integration and coordination of banking rules, laws and unified controlling authorities, via threatening Brexit which was to be and was a deadly blow to EU propaganda glue that holds together this melting pot of divided as never before nations and never as much, since medieval times, united national elites integrated in EU ruling bureaucracy.

What was Cameron scared of as far as direction of future of EU?

First it was likely devastating impact of further EU integration on UK banking industry as London has become legal under U.K. law illegal in EU, money laundering capital of the world and criminal income safe heaven esrnimg huge part of revenue of the City , US is second capital of financial crime.

And the second point is future of British monarchy which inevitable further integration of EU into superstate would require to be abandoned in UK as elsewhere as EU states were to loose all even symbolic sovereignty and turned into regions and provinces as in EU reincarnated Roman Empire .

Needles to say that UK still powerful landed aristocracy wants nothing of that sort.

Hence Cameron went to Brussels make special deal for UK , exemptions from those EU integration rules and was essentially, with some meaningless cosmetic changes, rebuked into binary decision in EU or totally out of it, no special deal and hence he escalated his campaign with surprisinglycaling Brexit vote, he himself previously opposed, as a negotiating tool only to increase political pressure to then, rig elections needs be toward remain if deal reached .

In fact as latest scandal revealed results of exit polls were released to stock market betting hedge funds just minutes before polls were closed concluding guess what, that remain campaign won while electoral data hours later showed Brexiters wining simply because to the last moment before closing polls they UK government expected EU to cave in, they did not so they continued pressure by closing openly poll count with slight pro Brexit win.

The pressure continued for following two years or so now while Cameron who officially opposed Brexit had to pay political price as he openly advocated staying in EU under phony never in fact agreed deal that even Tory did not buy as it meant no exit and had to be replaced by May who also was against Brexit and hence person who would continue Cameron's bid to satisfy about U.K. conditions.

And hence this seeming chaos month after month fooling people who voted to leave that there is other way but hard Brexit that was clear already for Cameron in 2016 if Monarchy, full sovereignty, border and immigration control and profits from global money laundering or surrender and humiliation degradation U.K. into EU colony.

But that Cameron/May conundrum has no satisfactory answer or solution which was obvious in 2016 and hence something and someone had to give, and of course it was not Monarchy not aristocracy nor UK Banking mafia but as always working people and that is the essence of the deal May brought from Brussels that in summary frees UK politically while retain subservient to Brussels mainstream economy and in fact increase burden of submission to EU rules on labor and pensions on shoulders British working people while preventing political class from even addressing, complaining or demanding any changes to those rules that may ease that burden.

Under this agreement UK cannot have its own industrial policies promoting for example job growth or limiting economic immigration or trade deals outside of EU rules and agreements U.K. no longer has any right to shape and in fact by that fact can never reorient itself away from EU or leave without huge legal liability on the top $80 billions institutional divorce already agreed upon that will be paid by U.K. Workers.

The whole lesson of this sordid Brexit affair is that any deviation of the path of globalization will be met with hostility to nations not elites whose minute detailed demands must be met, but workers who are losing any effective ways to defend their own interests short of all out revolution.

I'm surprised there's no mention of the 22nd May as the date of the extension deadline ... really? ... the day before the EU elections? Clearly designed as a cynical safeguard against a flood of euroskeptics entering the EU political scene.

This video interview with George Galloway from last November answers most of your query and teaches those unaware of the political dynamics surrounding the EU, Brexit and UK politics. It's just about 10 minutes long, which is a short time to learn so much!

The bottom line to your query is there won't be any crash as that's Remain media hyperbole, but please listen to George!

What is it exactly that will create "utter chaos"? If someone knows I'd be very grateful to find out.
__________________________________________

It's one of those self-inflating, self-confirming propositions; if there's a critical mass of Chicken Littles chirping with hysterical terror, the chaos becomes a fait accompli.

Alternatively, one may ask if the dread post-Brexit "utter chaos" is distinguishable from the abiding, and escalating, utter chaos of the UK's government.

It's interesting that all parties are unable to cope with Brexit becoming a Gordian Knot, insist that cutting it is simply too catastrophic, and so instead devise approaches to simply make it go away-- either by infinitely kicking it down the road, or officially declaring that it was a misadventure that never should've happened in the first place.

I'll turn 64 next month, but since I'll never be a Sensible Adult I'm offended by the tendency of Sensible Adults to impatiently and bumptiously wave off the legitimacy of the referendum; I presume they expect that if Brexit is formally nullified by further chicanery, the childlike pro-Brexit idiots weary of being ridden over by the EU Trojan Horse will simply accept that it was a fool's choice in the first place.

Meanwhile, the UK government consistently defers to the EU to dictate the terms and conditions for withdrawal. It appears to be unclear on the concept of unilaterally pulling itself out from under Brussels' talons.

So now we see a spectacle that combines "Groundhog Day" with "Oliver Twist in Hell": the odious zombie-PM May peripatetically crawling to Brussels with her begging bowl, asking, "Please, sirs, may I have less?"

Such deluded analysis. If the EU tried to play on internal divisions to destroy a nuclear armed power it would just bring defeat and absolute destruction on itself (ie the German-French oligarchy) just like in the 20th century. The EU isn't a cohesive entity outside the German-French oligarchy. France could be out of the German choke hold any day. Italy is close to moving out of the EU control. The ex-Socialists states in the East will take any German money, or trade deal that benefits them, but would as soon turn on Germany on a geo-strategic level. London, with US help, will take on any attempt at German continental empire building like anytime in the last centuries. Germany allying with Russia or China against the Atlantic Powers would just make it even easier to split Europe and bring its doom.

Quite an indictment! From the very beginning I've had no idea at all about what's going on in the UK. I hope the ordinary people there survive whatever it is that's happening, and the fallout doesn't spread to other countries.

I May manages to pull-off a hard Brexit it will be much to her credit.
Any company not making preparations deserves the outcome.
EU is an black hole of non sovereignty.
If Ireland and Scotland an Wales should wish to seperate from England, why is that a problem for England?

Is it Europe's interest to allow a nice, easy Brexit? Clearly not.
If Britain did exit the EU and suddenly displays prosperity and independent thinking a whole bunch of others countries/provinces would likely start thinking similar thoughts. That would be dangerous for the EU.
Think about Hungary, Catalonia, Greece and a few others that would do well if they could break the yoke and free their currencies from the Euro. Their economies could fly free again.
No, the EU are going to ensure that Britain experiences maximum pain.

George Galloway in the video I was barred from posting said the "Brexit Crash" is nothing more than Remain Media propaganda/hyperbole. Indeed, remaining within EU prohibits any UK government from nationalizing anything, such as renationalizing British Rail, or from favoring any national industry over those located offshore. Why? Because the EU's a Neoliberal project that's aimed at eliminating such socialistic attributes from ALL European economies, and is why Benn and UK Labour opposed entering the EU from the beginning. Galloway also talks about how Brexit created a schism within the Tories as traditional British nationalists have also always opposed entering the EU.

Indeed, Brexit allows the current campaign by Corbyn's Labour to move forward unhindered by EU rules and is very much to England's benefit. A Yandex search using Galloway Brexit chaos brings up the video I mention into top place. It's only ten minutes long and very much worth the time spent.

Leaving the EU doesn't have to be catastrophic for the UK, but leaving without a deal necessarily would be. If the UK really does crash out with no deal next week, it instantly becomes a third country that has no trade deals with the EU at all. Other countries that trade with the EU do so within a framework of pre-existing agreements. The US and Japan each have between 20 and 50 such trade agreements with the EU, for example (I can't be bothered to look up the exact numbers). New Zealand is not in utter chaos because it has had trade agreements with the EU since the very beginning, and so on.

No deal means no deal. It means roll-on/roll-off ferry traffic between UK and EU ports grinds to a halt because every single lorry that could previously drive straight off the ferry and onto the roads now has to be carefully inspected. The ports simply have no capacity to do this because there is supposed to be freedom of movement and no inspections. EU ports would become totally gridlocked within hours, and new ferries would be unable to load or unload. The UK would have to stop exports to the EU completely to keep the ports clear for incoming traffic (which could still go through uninspected because the UK could waive its usual import checks to deal with the emergency).

This would continue, with massive economic damage, until new trade deals were agreed, which could take months or even years. That is just one small example that I've tried to keep simple.

Looking at it from a distance as I am, one might get the impression that no party involved had an intention to make "brexit" happen. This is a lengthy drawn out kabuki that may go on for some additional years and at the end of which there will be a bremain.

"According to a final communique, EU leaders are giving the UK until May 22 to leave if the UK lawmakers back Brexit deal next week, but if the law makers won't back the deal, the European Union gives UK until April 12 to indicate a way forward."

Looks like another 3 weeks of drama and hysterics. Corbyn's EU meeting was a waste of his time.

The problem is that production in Britain presently sells to the EU market. So British, and foreign companies will migrate to the EU to keep their clients. Same for the financial sector. All this has already happened as companies take time to plan and have acted according to worst case scenarios.

It is unlikely that Britain on its own can get better trade deals outside of the EU-market than as a EU member.

Of course Britain will after some time have found new markets - with higher transport costs and more obstacles.

Altai @8
I'm not going to touch the rest of your comment, I quit reading when I got to the "autistically screech" bit. Many, maybe most, of us "on the spectrum", despite being confused by and confusing to neurotypicals, manage just fine without ever fitting your stereotypical misunderstanding of autism. Using a neurophysiological condition as an insult is no different than using race, gender, class etc as insults. Please, think of another word.

The only justification for a man to call himself an anti-imperialist and in favour of the UK remaining in the EU would be the belief either that the EU as a whole is more likely to turn against NATO and US imperialism than a British Labour government. Or that such things matter not at all because all parliamentary or electoral approaches to socialism are a delusion.
I have respect for those holding the latter, classical anarcho syndicalist viewpoint, but the former is clearly nonsense.
It might have been true in the old days of the Common Market and the European Community-though the left of the Labour Party never believed that, which is why Corbyn and Benn were always opposed to the Common Market. But there is no way that in this era of the EU being increasingly dominated, politically, by US satrapies, fanatically opposed to socialism, it is true today.
Which brings us back to the logical position, supported by more than half of the electorate, of withdrawing from the EU as a necessary preliminary to taking the political decisions necessary to reverse the inequalities and injustices born of neo-liberalism and making the break with US imperialism necessary for the UK to keep its options open in future dealings with the world in general.
It is that simple: if the British wish to reshape their society in a manner calculated to deliver justice for all and social equality, they have no choice but to slip the trammels of the neo-liberal EU, which has Thatcherism built into it as a permanent feature.
As to Corbyn's position it is quite clear: he is instructed by the Labour Party Conference to leave the EU and to do so under terms of amity with the people of Europe with the least possible disruption from outside. Changing society will bring disruption but it will be planned and desired, simply leaving the EU without any arrangements to ease the transition-for all parties- makes no sense.
The problem that we all face, in this and other matters, is that the vast majority of the information we receive is distorted, taken out of context and designed to get in the way of socialist policies and policies, in general, designed to benefit the many rather than the few.
In order to reform British society The Establishment will have to be tamed. From the military to the Civil Service it is inextricably entangled with the EU, NATO and the Empire. These entanglements have to be cut, one by one. The reality is that Socialism can only begin in one country, to survive it will have to win support from the people of all countries but the first step has to be taking over and using the state to build the new while dismantling the old.

@Deltaeus #17
The problem with a lot of the analysis I've seen is that it focuses only on the existing types of trade. Trade is an interesting thing: even if the UK exits the EU via no-deal, will those organizations selling EU products in the UK and UK products in the EU, stop selling? There will be some, but I doubt there will be a lot.
In particular: the UK has a pretty significant trade deficit.
The reality is more likely that the cutoff of cheap imports from the EU - ranging from subsidized farmers in France and Spain to subsidized manufacturers in Germany and subsidized imports from the Netherlands - will actually benefit UK producers and (re)create incentive to make product in the UK.
As for UK exports: The top 4 categories are
#1 Machinery and mechanical equipment
+13% Machinery and mechanical appliances such as nuclear reactors and boilers are the things that topped the list last year. This kind of appliance regularly tops the UK list both in terms of imports and exports.
#2 Fuels, oils and substances
+22% Mineral fuels and oils are one of the fastest movers up the list of recent times. Exports including mineral fuels, mineral oils, mineral wax and products of their distillation which include bitumen are up 22%.
#3 Road vehicles and parts
+17% This includes all vehicles which are not rolling vehicles for the railway or tramway and includes their parts and accessories. This could be down to the increase in export productivity of major UK vehicle manufacturers such as Aston Martin, Lotus, Jaguar, Bentley, Land Rover, Mini, Rolls-Royce and McLaren to name just a few.
#4 Electrical equipment and parts
I don't see these being significantly affected. The luxury cars aren't really bought in Europe because of BMW, Ferrari, Porsche and Mercedes Benz anyway.
The other thing that people seem to be ignoring is that the UK has always been an offshore financial haven for Europe. Under the EU, this was less of a benefit because of the encroaching EU financial institutions.
The one issue which I do see as being huge is Ireland - the re-outbreak of active hostilities is very much on the table. Attempted secession by Northern Ireland (not bloody likely) or Scotland (more possible but still unlikely) will be enormously entertaining as Putin scolds the UK for not being consistent with the voted "will of the people" precedent set by Kosovo and the US finding some weasel wording to support the "unity of the British isles" or some crap.

As other commentators have noted: richer countries got richer, poorer countries have gotten poorer under the EU. My view is more specific: only Germany and one or two Eastern European nations have overall benefited from the EU; France hasn't been doing great nor has the Netherlands, but the PIIGS have been just terrible with Latvia et al experiencing post-1991 Russia style depopulation.

The MPs are all pissed off that suddenly they don't control "Democracy". The referendum told them what to do, the Government found the best deal possible, and they have no alternative but vote it through or delay and be laughed at by their voters (and the rest of the world).
They will vote it through - it may take 6 or 12 months, but they will.
And no more than 2 or 3% actually want a No deal over the May Deal. And no more than 20-25% want to remain so much that they are willing to risk their career by voting remain or for a 2nd vote.
So waste time, hope everyone forgets about it and vote it through when no one is looking.

Matthew Parris despises Brexit and all who voted for it. Take it from a Brit, his opinion is only 'in demand' when some news editor wants a rabid hit piece on Brexiteers or, separately , on the merits of teaching 8 year olds about homosexuality. Bear this in mind when he gives his two cents on May who, to her credit, is at least trying to honour the result of the referendum, when those like Parris and his ilk who remain in Parliament would sooner rather see the British public put back in their box on Brexit. It's interesting though to see a German publication give such weight to the views of a sap like Parris.

As a European Union member, the UK is automatically part of about 40 trade agreements which the EU has with more than 70 countries worldwide.

About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2017/18—£274 billion out of £616 billion total exports.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March, it would lose these trade deals immediately.

No one under pressure can negotiate deals that are better than those they already had, but voided. The UK will have to scramble.

Personally, I subscribe to the common view that May and her masters never tried at all for a soft transition, but deliberately let the clock run to cause the maximum pain. This was from two motivations: (a) let the people recant at the last minute in the face of a hard, no-deal chaos, and (b) if it goes ahead anyway, then let the ordinary people who dared to vote for this suffer the maximum punishment for their sin. Blame the general populace for its suffering. The petulance and spite of the ruling classes, the hatred of the rich for the poor, are all on display in all of May's actions.

Theresa May, in this view and mine, has accomplished her mission faithfully and well. She has fumbled the situation perfectly, allowing no sane action to interfere with whatever damage will result from this no-deal bust-out.

If what Bevin @ 34 says chimes with what the BBC cryptically suggests (and B extrapolates from), then it may be that Brussels anticipates that Theresa May may not survive long as Prime Minister, that the Conservatives will finally ditch her as leader, that there will be a general election which Jeremy Corbyn is likely to win, and so Brussels wants to hear what he and British Labour propose.

The issue is how the Conservatives get rid of May given that she has survived previous votes of no confidence and she seems driven to stay as leader.

The EU is genuinely fascist (if they're not then what is?) as is May and most of her "peers".

2 for the price of 1 is a great deal. 3 or 4 for 1 is still better.

I'm not a UK citizen but I love that they showed two fingers into the face of "Brussels" it's almost as good as if Texas seceded out of the US.

The EU will never survive itself. It should be a very big warning for Putin and Xi not to repeat these kinds of mistakes in their various cooperative structures (they've already started mentioning future possibilities for common currencies).

It's a bit like believing one gets "multiculturalism" (whatever that is meant to mean) by blending everything together into a goo of increased strife and hardship.

altai@3
I'll just restrict myself to two observations:
You write, rather tastelessly, "...Parliament then proceeds to autistically screech about a no-deal Brexit despite they, themselves deliberately voting down every deal May brought them and trying to oust her in no-confidence votes in order to generate exactly the 'chaos', they constantly wail about."
This is rubbish. If Parliament wanted to pass a motion of no confidence they would do so. They have carefully avoided supporting non confidence motions however. Which is why she is still in a position to pursue her tactics.
You are either unaware of what has been happening in Parliament or setting out to mislead.
You add " Now the speaker is acting in the most insanely ways to damage the legitimacy of parliament too."
This is also untrue. Bercow is abiding by precedent. He is insisting that she not keep on putting bills which have been rejected before the House. He has said, in complete conformity with Erskine's Rules, that he will not allow her to continue to waste Parliament's time.
The truth is that May is treating both the House and the country with contempt by playing factional politics with matters of vital importance.

Jen@43
May has survived because the Tories have united behind her. And the Blairites fearing a Corbyn election victory because it would put an end to their political careers have sided with her too.
In Parliament the reality is that there are two sides: on the one hand there is Corbyn and about half of the Labour MPs. On the other side there are all the rest of the MPs who fear socialist policies and an election. Dozens of Tories would lose their seats if there were an election. Most of the Blairites would not win the nominations to run. The SNP fear a Labour revival-Scotland always having been, until the Blairites kicked them out, a socialist stronghold. The Liberal-Democrats, who combine the worst of Toryism with the worst of Blairism, are equally afraid of the polls.

The "Deutschlandlied" (English: "Song of Germany", German pronunciation: [ˈdɔʏtʃlantˌliːt]; officially titled "Das Lied der Deutschen", or "The Song of the Germans"), or part of it, has been the national anthem of Germany since 1922.

Brexit is far too complex to have ever been offered to the British public to vote on. Even most parliamentarians knew very little about backstops and trade deals and WTO tariffs let alone Joe public. It’s the Hotel California where you can check out any time but you can never leave. As b. pointed out nakedcapitalism has been excellent, just as it was over Greece. Yves can be a bit brutal but she has a very firm grasp of reality. Sometimes the posts on the website are so high level that I struggle to understand them. What is clear is that Britain will suffer greatly from a no deal scenario. Already financial firms are moving to Europe, Honda is going to close a plant, Airbus is seriously considering moving its wing-making to Europe and these are just three examples. Britain used to own a 20% share of Airbus but sold it for a billion pounds when it is now worth at least seven billion – another example of British arrogance and stupidity. Corbyn, like his hero Tony Benn is basically anti-EU but I have the feeling that he has failed to study the matter in any depth. Mrs May is probably right when she said he had never read the withdrawl agreement. Rather than getting bevin’s socialist government we may well get neo-liberalism on steroids where they dismantle all the employment entitlements mandated by Brussels, attack the NHS and take away what little we have. I suggest watching the you tube videos Three Blokes in a Pub talk Brexit or something like that. One is a trade negotiator with some twenty years of experience. He explains, for example, how there are over two hundred types of steel either exported or imported, all of which require a trade deal.

it's been odd seeing the "sky is falling" attitude about brexit from the very beginning. it's all just words on paper and agreements that could exist stapled to some other legal wank the "elites" come up with. it's also barely 27 years old in its current form. i have compact discs and band shirts older than that. if it was a person it would be too young to remember nirvana or terminator II.

it would be easy to see may's bumbling as a "destroy it from the inside" game like so many MAGAtards see trump's various exercises in dumbassery but - like those very actions - i think it boils down to incredibly stupid people in the "inheritance class" having no idea how to handle anything their parents didn't handle first.

as for corbyn, he seemed reluctant to have to initial vote at all and despite the incessant screeching that he's an anglo clone of himmler (because they really have nothing else to whine about that would cost him a shred of credit with actual human voters) i'd bet the EU apparatchiks are just waiting out may's term under the assumption he will take her place. then they get the win/win of having someone willing to axe brexit (or possibly deal with it in an adult fashion) and getting rid of corbyn (who falls on the lose/lose end of the spectrum) when it either goes the way of lisbon or gets ratified in some pointless way and all the leavers revolt at the next election. then another stuffed suit tory will bet on the collective amnesia of UK voters. whether that works out remains to be seen but if the yellow vests are a (yellow) canary in the coal mine i doubt it.

So sad to see the effects of Mad Cow disease so clearly in some of the comments here, and how it is transmitted by the Tories and UKIP to the public via the media. B tried to point out the excellent reportage at Naked Capitalism, but how could that compare to the incisive expertise of BoJo and Rees-Mogg? By all means enjoy the victory of cutting off your nose to spite your face, as long as it keeps the wogs out. Indeed, the future is bright as your chums in Europe, Russia, China and all those former Colonies are surely waiting to repay you in kind for your past friendship!

To the sane and innocent Brits, I offer my sincere condolences for your unwitting or unwilling sacrifice on the altar of Tory politics, nationalism and neoliberalism. The EU is not an ideal bride, but divorce is hell.

The Brits are gagging to leave and who can blame them? 40,000 Brits have died unnecessarily due to EU -style 'management' of social security. This includes veterans, the elderly and the disabled. The military is under the control of the EU. Systematic and institutionalised child trafficking has crippled the police and judiciary. Any dissent is oppressed by EU statutes denying freedom of expression and of political association. It is a nonsense and a fiction that we need a deal. We need it like we need a hole in the head.

Looks like Theresa May will be steering HMS United Kingdom Titanic into the proverbial iceberg ... there will be a giant sucking sound, I'm sure of it ... I only feel sorry for those under the decks who will be affected by May's stupidity and incompetence.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens when they don't deliver.

The politicians don't seem to realize their position since they're so used to not giving the people any thought. Involving the Territorial Army might be the biggest blunder yet because they'll have to be armed if they're supposed to quell any revolt. Considering the recruits usually come from the rougher segment of those who would throw a fit at a non-Brexit maybe the "government" should invite the French over instead? :P

@bevin #34
Refreshing to have a good honest Leninist view. Second to none. Thank you.

Another thing about Lenin (and Mao) is that he was never afraid of a genuine contradiction.

The idea that May, or the House of Commons, or somebody else "botched" Brexit comes from a presumption that the bigger the problem, the further out of sight it must be put. Such very large problems, according to this view, must be managed, behind closed doors, by the right sort of chap, with the optional addition of one or two reliable chapesses.

If you believe in all that, then the EU is where you want to be.

The opposite is the kind of democracy that deals with the matters that are hard to agree on, and deals with them in the open.

"Man is at last compelled to face with sober senses his real condition of life and his relations with his kind" said Karl Marx in the Communist Manifesto. Let it be so.

We employ a model characterized by costly trade, love of variety, heterogeneous firms, labour mobility as well as endogenous markups and productivity. We quantify the model using goods and services trade data as well as GDP and population for EEA countries/regions plus BRIC countries and other OECD countries. We finally compute, starting from the observed initial situation in the year 2016, counterfactual economic changes stemming from changes in trade costs related to the implementation of both a soft and a hard Brexit. We find that Brexit would have a significant impact on the UK and EU economies. A hard Brexit could lead to annual welfare losses of 57 billion euros in the UK and about 40 billion euros in other EU countries. A soft Brexit would strongly mitigate these losses. Productivity losses and markup increases drive the simulated effects.

"...The experience of Greece teaches us that if a radical left government such as the one we want Corbyn to form, one this country needs - if that was formed, the European Union would oppose it tooth and nail. Anybody who doesn't see that doesn't understand the European Union.

So, a socialist program such as Britain needs - a radical program that can oppose neoliberalism, cannot be implemented within the European Union. It just cannot. The fact that the left cannot see this, is astounding to me. But then that is the state of the European left. That's the disease that has affected much of the European left.

Brexit is an incredible historical opportunity created by the British working class, by the poor of this country, who for their own reasons, decided to give the ruling classes a black eye. And they did, with a massive vote against the ruling class. And then they handed this over to the left.

The left looked at it and didn't know how to handle it. It's a tragedy..."

"What is it exactly that will create "utter chaos"? If someone knows I'd be very grateful to find out."

The scenarios strike me as similar to the more dire Y2K predictions; logistical bureaucracy is supposed to collapse into total chaos and goods will pile up to the sky. But I find it hard to believe they wouldn't quickly jerry-rig a way to keep things moving while they put together a provisional new system toward a more permanent one.

For what it is worth, my own view is that Brexit has been a total disaster that was spawned from an unnecessary referendum that had to do more with Tory party internal politics than with a national drive for greater independence. Yes I agree that the EU is flawed and I detest some of it's foreign policy actions, with the chaos in Ukraine being a particularly nasty and destructive example of EU meddling. That said, I fail to see the economic and social benefits from Brexit outweighing the relatively privileged position that the UK has occupied in the EU until present.

Politicians have rarely been viewed with more disgust and contempt here, and that seems to be the consensus of every natural born British national that I have spoken with (I have lived here in southern England and London for a few decades now, having been born and raised outside of the UK). London is obviously a cosmopolitan bubble that seems somewhat removed from much of the rest of the UK, but the worry here about where things are going is genuine.

If the referendum itself was non-binding, then one wonders if Article 50 could indeed be revoked at the last minute. I'd hesitate to place bets on that though. Politicians themselves are quite viciously polarised.

A final comment: I am lucky enough to spend a lot of time in Central Europe. Despite the disputes that many of the former Warsaw Pact countries there have with Brussels, the near-universal opinion that I encounter there is that the UK has lost its marbles. Food for thought.

I couldn't agree with you more - absolutely what I think. But as I am sure you are well aware, there are many in the UK who are neither stupid nor insincere who think the other way. It is more a matter of faith than reason. Like Catholics and Protestants, or Royalists and Parliamentarians.

@68 And why would they think any different? For them, the EU is great. They are net receivers and they get to come to the UK for far better wages (a work colleague claims child benefit for her son who still lives in Poland with her mother).

If I was Eastern European, I'd be confused too, because they have a good deal. But I'm not. Where in Europe can I go as a Brit to double or treble my earnings upon arrival (especially as an unskilled worker)? The problem is compounded by UK businesses always choosing the Eastern European worker as they are desperate, unfamiliar with UK employment law and willing to accept poor conditions.

You also double or treble your cost of living. Problem is that jobs are not there. That is the huge EU failure, that they cannot get jobs where people want to live. They cannot get jobs to the countryside and they cannot get jobs to all of their members. They aren't even trying.

@70 A fair point well made. It is worth noting that there was discussion in some of the Central European media about educated professionals leaving the UK and returning to their home countries due to the Brexit uncertainty. A net benefit for these countries in terms or intellectual capital. From personal experience, I would also hesitate to class most of the Central European workers here in London as especially desperate and willing to do anything.

@69 Yes I agree and I hope that I did not directly or indirectly paint all Brexiteers in a profoundly negative light. I work in medicine/medical research and whilst the overwhelming view here is that Brexit is a bad idea for a host reasons, there are certainly a few highly respected consultants, scientists and surgeons that support Brexit. I should also add that we are seeing the impact of Brexit in our relations with European research groups and commercial entities: there is a growing reluctance to engage or sign contracts whilst this process continues. Things are looking less than rosy.

I'd be a liar if I said that I was not personally worried by this entire process and its eventual resolution.

to JohninMK I concur.. B's assertiong is not likely correct "no deal will create chaos.." it might create economic disappointment for those who have been able to exploit the international benefits provided by globalized EU, but those benefits have all been at the expense of the domestically confined persons. <=higher prices..

I disagree with your comment "A no-deal crash out on March 29 would create utter chaos for months. It would be catastrophic for Britain's economy". The plan to go zero tariff/keep EU regulations in place will negate a good proportion of the issues and may force the EU to do the same, at least until the new Commission is in place until the Autumn. My reasoning on this is with zero tariff there will be no halt to EU trucks coming into the UK to deliver product and produce. The problem will be when those trucks, plus Irish trucks and UK trucks head back or to the EU. If they put up barriers there will be huge outbound queues towards Dover. This will cause huge economic outcries across the EU putting big pressure on politicians to sort it.

We need to remember that EU agricultural producers had a dry run of this five years ago when Russia shut their borders overnight to EU produce with lorries with perishables on board with nowhere to go. That cost billions of Euros and I doubt the Dutch and Spaniards in particular want that to happen again.

Incidently, zero tariff will have little financial effect on the UK as the revenue from external tariffs goes straight to the EU funds, not the countries. Posted by: JohninMK | Mar 21, 2019 3:59:19 PM | 14
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and I agree the Deltaeus | Mar 21, 2019 4:30:13 PM | 17,, his request for an honest answer to a honest question should be honestly answered with diligence.. "exactly what consequence of the Bexit will generate or create "utter chaos"in Britain?
Where I think the chaos might become evident is within the EU, external to an exited Britian? So to whom will that chaos accrue, when and how will it occur, and who is suppressing the many studies that must already have been done?

other countries trade with the EU and don't suffer from a catastrophe. So why can't the UK? NZ trades with the EU and as far as I can tell they're not living in "utter chaos".

What is it exactly that will create "utter chaos"? If someone knows I'd be very grateful to find out.

"..that the elites in the UK did not want to leave the EU (why not, it is working great for them). That includes the leaders of the Conservative Party. May did not want to 'leave', so she carried out a totally incompetent negotiation and came back with a bad agreement, in the hope that would lead ... somehow, to Britain remaining in the EU..."by SteveK9 | Mar 21, 2019 4:44:19 PM | 18
The EU isn't a cohesive entity outside the German-French oligarchy. France could be out of the German choke hold any day. Italy is close to moving out of the EU control. by: ThePaper | 22

Once again its the internationalist that Bexit would harm "if the UK really does crash out with no deal next week, it instantly becomes a third country that has no trade deals with the EU at all.." by: Mobius 01 | 28

"The problem is that production in Britain presently sells to the EU market.." by: somebody | Mar 21, 2019 | 32

The only justification..[for Bexit resides in]the belief either that the EU as a whole is more likely to turn against NATO and US imperialism than a British Labour government. or the realization of the lie that "parliamentary or electoral approaches .. are delusion(al). The problem that we all face, in this and other matters, is that the vast majority of the information we receive is distorted, taken out of context and designed to get in the way of socialist policies and policies, in general, designed to benefit the many rather than the few.
In order to reform British society The Establishment will have to be tamed. From the military to the Civil Service it is inextricably entangled with the EU, NATO and the Empire." by: bevin | 34

The problem with a lot of the analysis I've seen is that it focuses only on the existing types of trade. Trade is an interesting thing: even if the UK exits the EU via no-deal, will those organizations selling EU products in the UK and UK products in the EU, stop selling? There will be some, but I doubt there will be a lot...
The other thing that people seem to be ignoring is that the UK has always been an offshore financial haven for Europe. Under the EU, this was less of a benefit because of the encroaching EU financial institutions."
by: c1ue | Mar 21, 2019 7:22:10 PM | 35

"..the city of london is a city state runs all the crown tax places around the world they are running these scripts the city may only be a square mile it maybe foreign but it runs the uk init by: myles miles | 36

"The MPs are all pissed off that suddenly they don't control "Democracy" by: Michael Droy | 38

"It's interesting though to see a German publication give such weight to the views of a sap like Parris." by: Pat Bateman | 40

"If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March, it would lose these trade deals immediately." by: Grieved 42

"the simplistic view of this Brexit debate boils down to the above sentence, and the "longstanding class war", that in my view, is the battle now being fought globally." by: ben | 45

" 40,000 Brits have died unnecessarily due to EU -style 'management' of social security. This includes veterans, the elderly and the disabled. The military is under the control of the EU. Systematic and institutionalised child trafficking has crippled the police and judiciary. Any dissent is oppressed by EU statutes denying freedom of expression and of political association. It is a nonsense and a fiction that we need a deal. We need it like we need a hole in the head.by: Kula | 56

Bexit is "not a deal but a treaty" "read my links" "UK democracy is about to be tested to the full." by: Butties | 57

The problem is compounded by UK businesses always choosing the Eastern European worker as they are desperate, unfamiliar with UK employment law and willing to accept poor conditions. by: Some Random Passer-by | 70

Brits don't seem to realize that they are not an empire anymore. The US took all of that away from them after WWII and lets them play emperor on a couple islands to keep them entertained, but there is no empire anymore. America has more control over Australia and New Zealand than the silly British Empire does. Heck, America has more control over Britain than the British do (explain to me how it was you Brits' idea to invade Iraq? Pretend that the Russians poisoned the Skripals? Prop up Random Guaido? Britain is just a poodle on a leash held by Uncle Slaughter).

The Brits should just drop the delusions and let the last little fragments of their empire go. I mean, really! Controlling a couple counties in the north of Ireland makes you feel big and bad and imperial? Just let it go!

Peter AU 1:
It was more of a statement of fact than an outright suggestion but on second thought it fits in well with my would-be suggestions which for some time have been split between a poorly defined popular non-ideological revolution (seems like the best revolutions are spontaneous so that's okay) or otherwise to simply watch as the powers that be all continue to bring themselves down.

I think the 5 Eyes etc. feel certain they would manage to be in charge no matter what and couldn't care less. If groups of people like Binney can't convince them they're wrong then it doesn't matter to them whatever I think or say.

the squeals of ensuing chaos are indeed the height of irony. i mean, the covenant between joe sixpack and his overlords is tenuous enough, no? question is, is how much yearning is there for something other than the rapacious, predatory, but still vaguely sparkly model we know so well?

oh my god! economic mahem! the trucks are lined up at the border!

wait 'til they empty the shelves in the stores, ration the water and the electricity…

William Gruff: I can be wrong and maybe I've been fooled into these notions but if a little bit of Northern Irish and Irish television has taught me anything it is that Northern Ireland isn't as simple as "the British/English something something" (although that's fun to claim and could start a fight with anyone) nor was Ireland ever. Northern Ireland is its own thing for which one can easily "blame" the Scots and the Dutch and the Irish as well, and then add some spice from Rome/the Vatican, Russia, and the US to the whole island.

It is not like Northern Ireland can stop being who they are whether anyone hates it or loves it (they love Bounty coconut-filled chocolates in Northern Ireland, how can anyone dislike anyone who loves Bounty? They have impeccable taste).

They would have to be an independent nation and I think "everyone" (Ireland, Britain, unionists, republicans) would have their own separate reasons for opposing that.

It's funny how so many of them would agree about being against it :)

Dara Ó Briain (from the Republic of Ireland) has joked in a friendly manner about the Northern Irish on various panel and comedy shows by saying something akin to "They/You [the northerners] all think we're Mexicans down here [about the southerners]" (north Sinn Féin included lol) :D

It's not racist unless you think slight anti-US sentiment is racist (because the joke alludes a little to Trump's wall, however unlike such a thing you can't see any indication of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland if you travel to it) and I never met anyone in Europe who doesn't love the Mexicans, instead it's about the northerners looking at the southerners as completely alien and exotic because to them they are.

They're already different countries and while I sympathize with Sinn Féin joining them up is going to take a while and might ultimately be as pointless as trying to join Scotland or Wales or for that matter Northern Ireland into England (which is not what the UK is; they're four different countries with four parliaments and one of them having additional seats from the three others, and a queen which is head of state in many more).

SRB @83 Sure, call those couple counties in the north of Ireland their own little country or whatever, just don't build a wall along their borders. The key is that they cannot be part of Britain anymore, nor should they be. The point is that Britain has to let go of the little fragments of empire they still cling to in order to have a painless and no-drama Brexit.

What do you make of Emily's comment at #2? Hers appears rather a typical British sentiment. However, as I've noted elsewhere, I cannot detect a shred of leftism either in her comment or in the entire exercise of Brexit to date.

Your statement is interesting (as usual), but does it contain more than even half truth coupled with wishful thinking? Aren't you simply proving the futility of utopian thinking?

The reality is that Socialism can only begin in one country, to survive it will have to win support from the people of all countries but the first step has to be taking over and using the state to build the new while dismantling the old.

There is already a movement of political unrest across the pond. It is not a socialist movement true, and Emily is not emanating a socialist bent at all gathering from her comment but she is indeed ready to don her yellow vest if Brexit fails. And as we know, Brexit is sure to fail.

And indeed if Corbyn gains 10 Downing Street as a result of a no-deal Brexit isn't he simply being set-up for blame when the entirety of the ensuing economic debacle will fall straight into his lap?

Quickly followed by a de riguer lurch to the hard right spurred on by all the disillusioned angry Emilys who yearn for the nostalgic past rather than a bold socialist future? And as consequence of this hard turn won't the equally reactionary US step in to replace the EU and Britain become our dear pet poodle even more than ever before?

Is this the likely eventuality or will there be the glorious socialist future you envision for Blighty? I hope against hope your idealistic vision holds....

However, Brexit seems much more a trap laid by ultra rightwingers to in rid Britain...and the EU in general.... of any remaining commonality of purpose at the working class level...to be replaced by an emerging "populist nationalist rightwing authoritarianism" with wait for it....closer ties to the US!

All with a side effect of Labour briefly gaining the captain's helm at the Titannic to be swiftly scapegoated and blamed when the ship runs aground, surrounded on all sides by the jackals of global financial corporatism.

And while we dream, a different reality appears right before our eyes growing more insistent each day...of quasi-nationalist gangster cartels coalescing easily among the US, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, et al. soon to be joined by the tamed post Brexit British poodles.

The scenarios strike me as similar to the more dire Y2K predictions; logistical bureaucracy is supposed to collapse into total chaos and goods will pile up to the sky. But I find it hard to believe they wouldn't quickly jerry-rig a way to keep things moving while they put together a provisional new system toward a more permanent one.
Posted by: Russ | Mar 22, 2019 4:04:56 AM | 66

I couldn't agree more. Y2K is the perfect analogy!

No deal means no deal. It means roll-on/roll-off ferry traffic between UK and EU ports grinds to a halt because every single lorry that could previously drive straight off the ferry and onto the roads now has to be carefully inspected ... The UK would have to stop exports to the EU completely to keep the ports clear for incoming traffic.
Posted by: Mobius 01 | Mar 21, 2019 5:59:39 PM | 28

This is a non sequiter. From past experience, what does officialdom do to cope with sudden legal hurdles for which they have no available capacity to deal with? They ignore them! They refuse to implement them.

Officials on both sides of the channel will face exactly the same problem - from the point of view of the enforcing officials and their immediate bosses - and will respond in exactly the same way - they will simply say "we have not been given any capability to undertake border controls" and therefore they will simply wave the traffic through. Any other course of action - by the men on the job is totally implausible and contrary to all experience of the behaviour of government officials anywhere in the world.

What the "legal requirements" are on paper is irrelevant. What matters is the force on the ground, and they have the final say in the matter. No government - on either side of the channel - will have the capability to take these officials on and force them to follow the letter of the law (nor will they want to). The same will apply (possibly to a marginally reduced extent) to air transport. The same will probably also apply to most other cross-border government activities that need immediate action (online transactions, authorisations, paperwork, etc). By contrast, any paperwork that can "temporarily" be put off will be permanently parked in a queue (that will probably never be able to be processed, and may eventually just be deleted - there will eventually be negotiations (issue type by issue type) to delete them because of the impossibility of processing them).

It reminds me of the situation in Poland in 1997-8 after the Solidarnosc government was elected into power. The Communists had lost power in government legally, but they still controlled the entire executive apparatus from top to bottom, through all their officials. Whatever the new Solidarnosc government tried to do was blocked by the officials.

In addition there is an equally powerful reason why solutions will quickly be found to allow everything to go on as before (especially trade but also movement of people) - the demands of business. Very very few people will genuinely want things to grind to a halt. Business interests will force accommodations to be made.

As Russ suggests, solutions will quickly be found to make sure things run smoothly as before. When everybody stands to lose from chaos and there is no other option, it is incredibly easy for both sides to agree "let's just go on using exactly the same procedures and on exactly the same terms as before for x months, while we sort out a long term solution". Every party has every incentive to do so. The "long term solution" can then be addressed a bite at a time - some things simple non-controversial administrative decisions that can be implemented very quickly, other things controversial issues that take years to resolve (many of which will be played off against each other and bargained for).

I predict that most of the more difficult of these issues would be addressed within two years (but most of the simple and uncontroversial issues very quickly), while a few issues will remain deadlocked for 10 years, and thus by default remain under the old terms because the politicians will not have the political will to resolve them.

Britain imports 27% of their food and drink from EU. Food suppliers stockpile and so there would not be an immediate effect to the consumer, what would be the effect and after how long with or without any later negotiated agreement until the effect reaches the consumer.
( There are plenty of links to this subject on the 'net, easily found with a search engine, i need not post links here.)

All trade with non EU countries has been negotiated over the decades with GB as a members of the EU. Have you seen, heard or read any reportage or discussion of these trade agreements with non EU countries being re-negotiated with GB. as a NON EU country ? If readers here has seen reportage of such discussions please direct me to any links ( please & thank You).

The city of London is a world financial centre and hub of investment, insurance, banking and financial business. Media reportage states that already a $ trillion worth of investment has been relocated to EU mainland prior to the brexit date. What will be the immediate effect on daily trading and inter financial transactions to institutes and banking with no deal ? Will financial clearing houses remain accessible with no deal brexit ?

I cannot believe, find difficulty to believe, that negotions have not been made and agreed upon between UK and the EU to avoid all disruption to inter world financial business through the hub of the city of London in the event or possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The disruption otherwise would greatly effect the EU as would effect the UK.

Then we could talk the inter EU energy market, specific between Ireland and GB., which immediately cease (?) or is there an 'in case of a no-deal' deal already negotiated and set up too

Will the auto manufacturers in located UK halt work or reduce manufacturing ( with lay offs) should there be a no-deal without customs regs. and not be able to export to the mayor customer countries of the EU. ? or will just stockpile for interim period of unknown duration.
( i read Honda are already planning closure of their plant in UK whatever the deal.)

The Spaniards are making provisional plans and regulations to prevent disruption to their annual import of British tourist.

The discussion brings to light of how much we are not aware of the interactivity between countries on a daily basis, and that which does so within frameworks of regulation that have taken many years to negotiate and agree upon.

You are forgetting that over half the population in Northern Ireland, including myself, consider themselves British.

There's already a mechanism in place under the Good Friday Agreement that a border poll will be called if it looks likely that a majority would vote to unify with the South. We aren't at that point yet especially as it isn't a black/white issue where people from a Catholic background will act like robots automatically voting for a united Ireland. I work with some who despise Sinn Fein and feel they would be better off economically under London , rather than Dublin's, control.

When people have settled in a place for centuries and there's so much mixing between the populations it's laughable to talk of colonialism. There haven't been soldiers on the streets here since the early 2000s, the RUC is gone and our legal system has a very high emphasis on equal opportunities between both sides.

I'm french. you're article is completly bullshit. Not only UK will survive after the brexit but EU will collapse in few years. EU does'nt work at all, it will never. EU is the capitalist version of USSR, an administration non elected corrupted.
Macron is hated by french people because he impose the politic of EU which doesn't work by the way.
there is officially 10% of non employed people here in France (3,9% in UK)
You heard about the yellow jacket. It will continue until this big mistake of EU will disapear .