Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.

Species-area relationships (SARs) are pivotal to understand the distribution of biodiversity across spatial scales. We know little, however, about how the network of biotic interactions in which biodiversity is embedded changes with spatial extent. Here we develop a new theoretical framework that enables us to explore how different assembly mechanisms and theoretical models affect multiple properties of ecological networks across space. We present a number of testable predictions on network-area relationships (NARs) for multi-trophic communities. Network structure changes as area increases because of the existence of different SARs across trophic levels, the preferential selection of generalist species at small spatial extents and the effect of dispersal limitation promoting beta-diversity. Developing an understanding of NARs will complement the growing body of knowledge on SARs with potential applications in conservation ecology. Specifically, combined with further empirical evidence, NARs can generate predictions of potential effects on ecological communities of habitat loss and fragmentation in a changing world.

Multidisciplinary ocean observing activities provide critical ocean information to satisfy ever-changing socioeconomic needs and require coordinated implementation. The upper oxycline (transition between high and low oxygen waters) is fundamentally important for the ecosystem structure and can be a useful proxy for multiple observing objectives connected to eastern boundary systems (EBSs) that neighbor oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The variability of the oxycline and its impact on the ecosystem (VOICE) initiative demonstrates how societal benefits drive the need for integration and optimization of biological, biogeochemical, and physical components of regional ocean observing related to EBS. In liaison with the Global Ocean Oxygen Network, VOICE creates a roadmap toward observation-model syntheses for a comprehensive understanding of selected oxycline-dependent objectives. Local to global effects, such as habitat compression or deoxygenation trends, prompt for comprehensive observing of the oxycline on various space and time scales, and for an increased awareness of its impact on ecosystem services. Building on the Framework for Ocean Observing (FOO), we present a first readiness level assessment for ocean observing of the oxycline in EBS. This was to determine current ocean observing design and future needs in EBS regions (e.g., the California Current System, the Equatorial Eastern Pacific off Ecuador, the Peru-Chile Current system, the Northern Benguela off Namibia, etc.) building on the FOO strategy. We choose regional champions to assess the ocean observing design elements proposed in the FOO, namely, requirement processes, coordination of observational elements, and data management and information products and the related best practices. The readiness level for the FOO elements was derived for each EBS through a similar and very general ad hoc questionnaire. Despite some weaknesses in the questionnaire design and its completion, an assessment was achievable. We found that fisheries and ecosystem management are a societal requirement for all regions, but maturity levels of observational elements and data management and information products differ substantially. Identification of relevant stakeholders, developing strategies for readiness level improvements, and building and sustaining infrastructure capacity to implement these strategies are fundamental milestones for the VOICE initiative over the next 2-5 years and beyond.