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Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

I'm expecting Vasyl's speed and better movement to win him this one. He's had his 'baptism of fire' as Skibbz put it, and I reckon he will have learned a lot of important things from that fight, thing's he will have incorporated into his training too. The Salido fight was a crash course in professional boxing for Lomachonko, and I don't think that someone with Vasyl's obvious intelligence and boxing pedigree will ignore a lesson like that.

Either way, we'll learn a lot about Lomachenko in this fight- it's float or sink for the Ukranian now.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Originally Posted by brownsugar

Beautiful presentation AJ and its difficult to dispute. Im still wondering why GR took the fight. before testing himself against stronger opposition.....but I'm glad its happening. May the best man win.

The most glaring thing about this fight in my eyes is why Team Russell excepted. Not having faced anyone of similar caliber it behooves me why a boxer who has appeared to be basically a protected fighter would take a fight of this magnitude.

I'm not basing my assessment of Lomanchenko's ability soley on AJ's pre-scouting report exclusively, I'm also going by what I've seen.... Some boxers are winners throughout their career, from their golden gloves years all the way up to their first pro championship fight. (Mayweather for instance)

Others don't win gold medals during their amateur careers and yet bloom later during their pro careers... like Holyfield, Tyson, Jones just to mention a few household names.

Some perform at the top level and burn out in the pro's like David Reid and Howard Davis Jr.

And others like GGG, Calzahge, Froch and Bhop, seem to simmer like steak and age like fine wine, hitting their stride after they've passed the 30 year old mark.
also,.... observing 5-7 year old amateur film doesn't reveal the whole story..... it is indicative of talent, but a lot can change between amateur and pro.

Tommy Hearns evolved from a "pretty good" stringbean who moved and bicycled a lot behind the jab, in the amateurs and evolved into a lethal assassin in the pro ranks, ..... the stories go on and on.

Lomanchenko is not yet the fighter he's going to be,... but Russell is not the same fighter he once was. to be honest there is no way I'd bet a dime on Russell. but at the same time I wouldn't be shocked if he showed something special on fight night.

Yeah I would have thought Gary would have at least fought contenders etc. but it has been a long time coming.
Yeah, I think the fact that Russell took this fight and is confident about this fight suggests he has legit reasons to believe so, only after analysing it I suggest Russell strongly believes in his ability which for this fight will be nothing more than smokes and mirrors for the most part...but maybe Russell can surprise me.

I agree with your statements fully and share the same perspective...
I would say though, Russell was always a winner, he did amazingly on US level and won Bronze in the World Championships 07' having lost to a monster in Sergey Vodopyanov, nothing to be ashamed about there. Having said that, you have to question the mental fortitude who always says he wants a championship fight over the space of 2 years, and decides to fight guys who are not even ranked. Add to the fact that he fainted before the Olympics. Is this the sort of guy that can take the heat?

One other problem is that I think, perhaps, Russell had stagnated a bit because he hasn't been in the deep end since the amateurs. Human beings like to minimise efforts and time whenever possible. Whereas Lomachenko has been pushed against elite opposition in the amateur constructs, and an elite type of pro fighter for your second pro fight.

Asking Lomachenko to perform how I want to in just 1 fight is probably too much to ask.

Originally Posted by Skibbz

Fantastic job AJ, I admire the intelligent support of your fighter. One thing that has struck me about Vasyl is that he doesn't always move with his opponent when he throws. You don't necessarily have to sit down on every punch, but if you miss the first two and your opponent is backing off at an angle, it's your time to slide up and pop them where you find a gap. Your opponent is moving away so you must move to. You can see it clearly in the video of VL missing his combination on Salido.

Roy Jones did it masterfully, he would follow you running across the ring peppering body and head until you fell. Vasyl has the feet, the speed and the combinations to do it, he just needs to let go of the amateur ropes and grab the reins of the pro game. This is it now, his time is almost here and it's time to start fighting like a true world champ.

As for Gary, I think you're slightly downplaying his chances. He will land, Vasyl is not invincible. The one thing that Gary and his camp must ensure does not happen is Lomachenko gaining confidence. I've watched him throughout his career and once he gains that confidence he starts to look unstoppable. I believe it was against a Kazakh in the WSB, it was fairly even in the first but Lomachenko started the 2nd better, gained confidence and started frustrating the Arlan. The Kazakh tried to make a fight out of it but Lomachenko wasn't having it and kept boxing him to pulp. Once he's in his rhythm you're all but lost.. Or so that's how the script goes..

I understand what you're saying, I agree, although there has been very good cases when he's done it with mastery i.e the Domenico Valentino fight - although Vasyl showed mercy to Domenico in this fight, didn't want to clown or use the killer instinct on one of the Amateur Greats.
Yeah definitely agree with the second paragraph, good insight.

Yeah, I did mention he will land, particularly the body shots and the occasional shot to the head. Ah I think you're talking about Bashenov. I think the turning point was definitely the knockdown landed on Bashenov, but an important feature in Lomachenko's fights in the amateurs and the WSB is that he would assess the fighter by seeing how they respond when he presses the attack, as well as use feints to analyse his movement and responses. He then uses the information he learns from this to lay an onslaught. This is why Vasyl and the need to have his own pacing strategy sorted over 12 rounds is very important, I hope you can appreciate. So against Salido he had no pacing strategy and so was all about safety-first until the end as Team Lomachenko were very fearful, and to their admission, of being able to go 12 rounds.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Originally Posted by The_King_AJ

I understand what you're saying, I agree, although there has been very good cases when he's done it with mastery i.e the Domenico Valentino fight - although Vasyl showed mercy to Domenico in this fight, didn't want to clown or use the killer instinct on one of the Amateur Greats.
Yeah definitely agree with the second paragraph, good insight.

Yeah, I did mention he will land, particularly the body shots and the occasional shot to the head. Ah I think you're talking about Bashenov. I think the turning point was definitely the knockdown landed on Bashenov, but an important feature in Lomachenko's fights in the amateurs and the WSB is that he would assess the fighter by seeing how they respond when he presses the attack, as well as use feints to analyse his movement and responses. He then uses the information he learns from this to lay an onslaught. This is why Vasyl and the need to have his own pacing strategy sorted over 12 rounds is very important, I hope you can appreciate. So against Salido he had no pacing strategy and so was all about safety-first until the end as Team Lomachenko were very fearful, and to their admission, of being able to go 12 rounds.

One thing with Gary is that he waits for a beat in his combo's.. It was clear in his last fight. His man was open but he waits just that one beat too long. He's got quick hands but how much power travels with those hands has still yet to be determined too.

Yes it was Bashenov well done, and it was after the knock down.. I can see it all again now, lead left I believe? He was going to the body and head nicely in that fight too I remember. The first 3 rounds are crucial in this fight. A bridgehead in the early stages will make it a much easier night for either guy. No doubt both camps will have worked a solid plan, it all depends on who will be able to follow it through!

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Originally Posted by Skibbz

One thing with Gary is that he waits for a beat in his combo's.. It was clear in his last fight. His man was open but he waits just that one beat too long. He's got quick hands but how much power travels with those hands has still yet to be determined too.

Yes it was Bashenov well done, and it was after the knock down.. I can see it all again now, lead left I believe? He was going to the body and head nicely in that fight too I remember. The first 3 rounds are crucial in this fight. A bridgehead in the early stages will make it a much easier night for either guy. No doubt both camps will have worked a solid plan, it all depends on who will be able to follow it through!

I think I can understand from a gameplan perspective why Gary actually chose this fight...he made the mistake of judging Lomachenko solely by his first two professional fights, thinking he would not follow through as you stated, and just be quite static, on the defensive, not really landing punches in bunches. From that perspective, with Gary's style, it's an appealing fight to take. But, they're being hugely misled by this.

He tends to have pretty weak combinations, but strong singular shots (Gary).

Yeah it was a good lead left, looking back, you can kind of see it coming, as Lomachenko took Bashenov to that area a few times, and noticed where he could land clean - this is the Loma I believe in, but how was he supposed to think on this level with no understanding of pacing strategy, no understanding of what to do in what round etc.?

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Originally Posted by The_King_AJ

I think I can understand from a gameplan perspective why Gary actually chose this fight...he made the mistake of judging Lomachenko solely by his first two professional fights, thinking he would not follow through as you stated, and just be quite static, on the defensive, not really landing punches in bunches. From that perspective, with Gary's style, it's an appealing fight to take. But, they're being hugely misled by this.

He tends to have pretty weak combinations, but strong singular shots (Gary).

Yeah it was a good lead left, looking back, you can kind of see it coming, as Lomachenko took Bashenov to that area a few times, and noticed where he could land clean - this is the Loma I believe in, but how was he supposed to think on this level with no understanding of pacing strategy, no understanding of what to do in what round etc.?

I also think he had his feather's ruffled, and has a point to prove by beating Lomachenko. I would highly doubt they underestimate Lomachenko, but I believe the Russell camp thinks they have the beating of him.

Gary has a good right hand, if he can land uppercuts when Lomachenko stoops then he could hurt him. Loma will no doubt try to show Gary early on he can hit him anywhere he likes and it's Gary's job to return. I don't think Gary will dominate the fight, but he has to be there breathing fire on Lomachenko or Lomachenko will take this belt and bragging rights. How far do you think the fight's going to go?

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

I don't remember the last fight that has been broken down and analyzed in the days and weeks leading up to it as this one. It truly is one of the more compelling, intriguing fights of the year.

I believe it's all about who will find, get into, and keep his rhythm. Something tells me that man will be V-Lo. After seeing Russell's speed and testing his strength in the first round--maybe two--I expect V-Lo to have Russell fully figured out.

I will be greatly surprised if the ending is a quick stoppage and mildly surprised if it's a late one. I fully expect a decision here, with the winner being the more effective aggreassor--V-Lo.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Originally Posted by the Roast

Holy crap AJ I think you just won the contest.

Lol yes, 1), 2) and 3).

By the way Roast, I think you ran El Dude out of the Universe! He's ducking you. I've responded to him on Youatube, telling him to come back and face The Roast and take that a$$ taxing but he's running scared.

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

Originally Posted by brownsugar

The most glaring thing about this fight in my eyes is why Team Russell excepted. Not having faced anyone of similar caliber it behooves me why a boxer who has appeared to be basically a protected fighter would take a fight of this magnitude.

I'm not basing my assessment of Lomanchenko's ability soley on AJ's pre-scouting report exclusively, I'm also going by what I've seen.... Some boxers are winners throughout their career, from their golden gloves years all the way up to their first pro championship fight. (Mayweather for instance)

Others don't win gold medals during their amateur careers and yet bloom later during their pro careers... like Holyfield, Tyson, Jones just to mention a few household names.

Some perform at the top level and burn out in the pro's like David Reid and Howard Davis Jr.

And others like GGG, Calzahge, Froch and Bhop, seem to simmer like steak and age like fine wine, hitting their stride after they've passed the 30 year old mark.
also,.... observing 5-7 year old amateur film doesn't reveal the whole story..... it is indicative of talent, but a lot can change between amateur and pro.

Tommy Hearns evolved from a "pretty good" stringbean who moved and bicycled a lot behind the jab, in the amateurs and evolved into a lethal assassin in the pro ranks, ..... the stories go on and on.

Lomanchenko is not yet the fighter he's going to be,... but Russell is not the same fighter he once was. to be honest there is no way I'd bet a dime on Russell. but at the same time I wouldn't be shocked if he showed something special on fight night.

Just so that you know. Too much moolah too fast, drugging, bad dieting habits and hanging with the going-nowhere boys instead of working out in the gym got both David Reid and Howard Davis, as it did Aaron "Hawk Time" Pryor. Holla!

Re: Russell Jr vs Lomachenko

With Russell he usually has to stop to throw punches.

As obvious as that comment is, it almost always holds true for guys with Russell's speed and style whom enjoy a clear advantage in the exchanges of a fight that often, in the later rounds of the fight, morphs into a psychological advantage closing down the other guys' options and willingness to engage in a "shoot out".

Furthermore, and still on Gary's punches; they're not always thrown with the purpose that makes the risk (of a quality opponent's counterpunching) worth it; all the time.

Most opponents can't deal with Gary's advantages, speed and skills to take him into those waters though, so he rarely finds himself there due to that consideration and matchmaking.

Zab Judah used to do a similar thing when he came through the ranks also . . . he would use his Southpaw speed and combinations to confuse, flurry and fluster opponents (I know he also used them to hurt and control guys too), and that would have a positive effect on the scorecards even when Zab was not necessarily being as productive or as efficient with his fast punches and combinations as he otherwise could have been - particularly for the energy/punches expended.

A guy can fall in love with himself and his own work like this, just a little, sometimes standing back and watching his opponent cowering; as it all feels and looks good to razzle/dazzle the audience and scare your opponent.

But, all those combinations and particularly the dedication to them in the fight, can sometimes be without any strategic purpose/thinking, and as such they can get the author of them set up and seriously clipped; if he thinks he's in there with yet another guy that is in awe if his speed as much as the author is.

There are ways to deal with speed, especially when it arrives without reliable power.

And I should imagine Lomachenko not only knows this and has practiced it on many occasions throughout his decorated career - but that he also see's very little in this aspect of Russell's repertoire that makes him think Gary's speed is more of a risk than opportunity; for his own timing, defence, power and experience.

Still, I am surprised that Russell took this fight, as whilst he is better than most give him credit for; he often fights guys that are not only susceptible to his strengths - but also those that either wont or don't have the proven 12 round ability to stick to game-plans and adapt whilst under the pressure of experienced guys - guys that aren't too bothered if an opponent reveals and uses their advantages.

And Lomachenko can do that and more.

One thing though, I don't really have a strong understanding of Russell's stamina and power (against proven opponents) and how reliable they both are in the late rounds.

Lomachenko's confidence and punch resistance are what you would expect for a guy of his pedigree and caliber. But if Russell can noticeably hurt Lomachenko and not just slow down that adjustment process - but also ensure there are consequences associated with it - things might change or at least be more difficult for Lomachenko and his expectations.