More than a half-dozen contests in the five-state region could be decided by single digits

The Upper Midwest has been no stranger to shake-ups to its U.S. House delegations with four Democratic pick-ups in 2006 (IA-01, IA-02, MN-01, WI-08) and five Republican pick-ups in 2010 (MN-08, ND-AL, SD-AL, WI-07, WI-08).

While there will likely not be that much turnover in the five-state, 22-seat region in 2012, there are expected to be several competitive races decided by single digits.

In Iowa, there are two marquee matchups eight-term Democratic U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell and nine-term Republican U.S. Representative Tom Latham in an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup in the 3rd CD due to the Hawkeye State losing a seat in Congress after reapportionment.

Boswell inherited a larger swath of his electorate than did Latham, but Latham raised significantly more money.

If Boswell escapes with a win, as he has many times over his congressional career, Democrats still have to content with Steve King in the 4th CD if they want to sweep the state for the first time in history.

King is facing Christie Vilsack who is hoping to become the first woman in Iowa ever elected to Congress. Iowa is one of six states that has only elected men to the U.S. House - along with Alaska, Delaware, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont.

King holds the advantage in demographics, but Vilsack nearly matched the Republican incumbent dollar for dollar in fundraising and has a very strong name recognition as the former First Lady of the state.

In Minnesota, the state could have three races decided by single digits for the first time since 1994 with Republican incumbents Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), and John Kline (MN-02) facing strong DFL challengers.

Kline is expected to have the easiest path back to D.C. with Bachmann likely to eke out a win as she has done in past cycles (Bachmann had the narrowest margin of victory among winning GOP incumbents in 2008, and fifth narrowest in 2010).

In the 8th CD, Rick Nolan seeks to become the 10th Minnesota U.S. Representative to return to the U.S. House after a gap in service - although the largest such gap has only been 14 years (Nolan has been out of office for 32).

Pick-ups are not expected in North Dakota, South Dakota, or Wisconsin, although an unexpected Democratic surge could narrow the margin in Wisconsin's 7th and 8th districts to the single-digit range.

Smart Politics 2012 Upper Midwest U.S. House Projections

District

Projection

Status

IA-01

Bruce Braley

Democratic hold

IA-02

David Loebsack

Democratic hold

IA-03

Tom Latham

Republican pick-up*

IA-04

Steve King

Republican hold

MN-01

Tim Walz

Democratic hold

MN-02

John Kline

Republican hold

MN-03

Erik Paulsen

Republican hold

MN-04

Betty McCollum

Democratic hold

MN-05

Keith Ellison

Democratic hold

MN-06

Michele Bachmann

Republican hold

MN-07

Collin Peterson

Democratic hold

MN-08

Rick Nolan

Democratic pick-up

ND-AL

Kevin Cramer

Republican hold

SD-AL

Kristi Noem

Republican hold

WI-01

Paul Ryan

Republican hold

WI-02

Mark Pocan

Democratic hold

WI-03

Ron Kind

Democratic hold

WI-04

Gwen Moore

Democratic hold

WI-05

Jim Sensenbrenner

Republican hold

WI-06

Tom Petri

Republican hold

WI-07

Sean Duffy

Republican hold

WI-08

Reid Ribble

Republican hold

* This is an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup, in a district currently held by Democrat Leonard Boswell.

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.

For each of the last 24 presidential elections since 1920, North and South Dakota have voted in unison - casting their ballots for the same nominee. For 21 of these cycles (including each of the last 12 since 1968) Republicans carried the Dakotas with just three cycles going to the Democrats (1932, 1936, and 1964). This streak stands in contrast to the first few decades after statehood when North and South Dakota supported different nominees in four of the first seven cycles. North Dakota narrowly backed Populist James Weaver in 1892 while South Dakota voted for incumbent Republican Benjamin Harrison. In 1896, it was North Dakota backing GOPer William McKinley while South Dakota supported Democrat William Jennings Bryan by less than 200 votes. North Dakota voted Democratic in 1912 and 1916 supporting Woodrow Wilson while South Dakota cast its Electoral College votes for Progressive Teddy Roosevelt and Republican Charles Hughes respectively.