SCHEDULING NOTE. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell "is planning to keep the chamber in session for a significant portion of October if not four entire weeks, costing Democrats" as well as Sens. Dean Heller (R-NV) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) "key campaign trail days and allowing the Senate to continue its work into the fall." (Politico)

WHERE THINGS STAND. “McConnell … said Tuesday that … Senate races were ‘dead-even’ in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida.”

McConnell: “We know this is going to be a very challenging election. … All of them too close to call and every one of them is like a knife fight in an alley. … It's just a brawl in every one of those places."

“McConnell also acknowledged Tuesday that the Texas Senate race … has been tightening in recent polls.”

McConnell: “I think Ted's got a competitive race, by all indications. We certainly expect to win in Texas, but I think he does have a competitive race.” (NBC)

McConnell “says the ‘wind’s going to be in our face, we don’t know if it’s going to be Category 3, 4 or 5.’” (AP)

“Republicans have made progress in several key states (North Dakota, Missouri, Arizona) even as they’ve suffered setbacks in others (West Virginia, Indiana, Montana). All told, it’s looking most likely that the Senate will remain closely divided, with Republicans holding their narrow advantage past 2018. Republicans will blow a historic chance at picking up many seats, given the uniquely favorable Senate map, while Democrats are still struggling to ensure that all their vulnerable red-state senators return to Congress despite a favorable national environment.

“Here’s the Senate math: If Republicans can defeat two of the six vulnerable Democratic senators up for reelection, they’ve locked down their majority for another cycle. Strategists from both parties agree that Republicans have pulled ahead in North Dakota. … Public polls show Missouri's and Florida’s contests as pure toss-ups, while Indiana remains highly competitive. Democrats have the momentum in West Virginia and Montana, but the conservative nature of those electorates give Republicans an outside chance.” (National Journal)

Stu Rothenberg: "[D]uring wave elections, tight Senate contests often all fall in the same partisan direction — and if Tennessee, Florida and Missouri do just that, there is a certainly a path for Democrats. It’s just a very narrow and rocky one." (Roll Call)

“Republicans have grown increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate, as President Trump’s approval rating tumbles and Democrats gain steam in key battleground races. … ‘Shipwreck’ was how one leading strategist described the situation.”

“The tough realities of Texas have prompted an unexpected alliance between Cruz and the Republicans he spent years waging a vendetta against as a senator and as a candidate for president — including Trump and McConnell. The sudden cooperation underscores how much the GOP fears losing Texas. The shock waves are being felt well beyond the state, as its several expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that it will have to subtract from GOP hopefuls in other battlegrounds.” (Washington Post)

“Texas has even more media markets than Florida (20 vs. 10), so it’s an expensive and complex place to run a statewide campaign. Republicans are being reminded of that as the surprisingly competitive U.S. Senate race there threatens to draw resources away from other battleground states.” (Bloomberg)

"President Trump signed a sweeping spending bill Friday afternoon, averting another partial government shutdown. The action came after Trump had declared a national emergency in a move designed to circumvent Congress and build additional barriers at the southern border, where he said the United States faces 'an invasion of our country.'"

Source:

REDIRECTS $8 BILLION

Trump Declares National Emergency

6 days ago

THE DETAILS

"President Donald Trump on Friday declared a state of emergency on the southern border and immediately direct $8 billion to construct or repair as many as 234 miles of a border barrier. The move — which is sure to invite vigorous legal challenges from activists and government officials — comes after Trump failed to get the $5.7 billion he was seeking from lawmakers. Instead, Trump agreed to sign a deal that included just $1.375 for border security."

Source:

COULD SOW DIVISION AMONG REPUBLICANS

House Will Condemn Emergency Declaration

6 days ago

THE DETAILS

"House Democrats are gearing up to pass a joint resolution disapproving of President Trump’s emergency declaration to build his U.S.-Mexico border wall, a move that will force Senate Republicans to vote on a contentious issue that divides their party. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said Thursday evening in an interview with The Washington Post that the House would take up the resolution in the coming days or weeks. The measure is expected to easily clear the Democratic-led House, and because it would be privileged, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would be forced to put the resolution to a vote that he could lose."

Source:

MILITARY CONSTRUCTION, DRUG FORFEITURE FUND

Where Will the Emergency Money Come From?

1 weeks ago

THE DETAILS

"ABC News has learned the president plans to announce on Friday his intention to spend about $8 billion on the border wall with a mix of spending from Congressional appropriations approved Thursday night, executive action and an emergency declaration. A senior White House official familiar with the plan told ABC News that $1.375 billion would come from the spending bill Congress passed Thursday; $600 million would come from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion would come from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget."

Source:

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL SIGN

House Passes Funding Deal

1 weeks ago

THE DETAILS

"The House passed a massive border and budget bill that would avert a shutdown and keep the government funded through the end of September. The Senate passed the measure earlier Thursday. The bill provides $1.375 billion for fences, far short of the $5.7 billion President Trump had demanded to fund steel walls. But the president says he will sign the legislation, and instead seek to fund his border wall by declaring a national emergency."