No consensus on census debate: Poll

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Canadians have weighed in on the heated census debate that's seen politicians, statisticians and advocacy groups butting heads since Ottawa decided to scrap the mandatory long-form census — and there's still no clear answer.

Canadians are evenly divided — 49 per cent in favour and 51 per cent against — on whether the Conservatives' move is "good" or "bad," according to the results of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for canada.com.

"The fact that this is such a divisive issue probably took the government by surprise," said Sean Simpson, senior research manager with the polling company.

"But even as we drove down into the demographics, it's basically split right down the middle. It's pitting old against young, parents against non-parents, regions against each other. I mean, it's just divisive among almost every line."

Quebecers showed the strongest support for abolishing the long-form census in 2011, with 62 per cent saying the move is "good," the poll suggested.

Opinions were split down the middle in British Columbia, Alberta and Atlantic Canada, while the majority of Ontario residents, Manitobans and residents of Saskatchewan said they think it's a bad idea.

Before the government announced the changes to the census, 80 per cent of Canadian households received an eight-question short census form. Twenty per cent received the longer questionnaire, with 53 additional questions about ethnicity, religion, income, education and housing.

Both were mandatory.

In 2011, though, the longer questionnaire would be replaced with an optional survey.

A growing list of municipalities, community groups, provincial officials and researchers have panned the move, saying it will undermine the integrity of the statistics they rely on for all sorts of programs and planning.

The Council of the Federation, a collaborative body formed in 2003 that includes all 13 provincial and territorial premiers, is expected to discuss the issue when they meet in Winnipeg Aug. 4-6.

Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan said Tuesday provincial officials had written to their federal counterparts seeking reassurance about the reliability and cost of data collected by a voluntary survey replacing the long-form census.

"We are major consumers of that data, probably if not the largest, one of the largest in the country," Duncan said. "We are concerned about the decisions they are making."

The Conservatives have cited privacy concerns as one reason for the change.

"The government has something there," the pollster said. "Fifty per cent of Canadians overall agree that completing the long-form census is an invasion of privacy."

On the other side of the coin, though, two-thirds of Canadians said they felt it was a reasonable intrusion.

"And a majority of people who have actually taken the long form said they don't think it should be scrapped. So they seem to see the good that's coming out of the intrusion, and feel it's their duty as a citizen to be contributing," Simpson said.

Fault lines appear between different age groups, with 56 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 say it's a good decision to make the long form voluntary, compared to 48 per cent of those 35 to 54 and 44 per cent of the 55-plus crowd.

Six in 10 (59 per cent) university graduates think the census change is a bad move, compared to 53 per cent of those with some post-secondary education, 47 per cent with a high-school education and 44 per cent without a high-school diploma.

Overall, one in five (19 per cent) Canadians say they won't fill out the long form if it's voluntary, but some groups are more likely to say that than others.

Those whose families earn less than $30,000 are most likely to say they wouldn't complete a voluntary long form (27 per cent), compared to 20 per cent of middle-income earners and 15 per cent of those whose family income is more than $60,000 a year.

Younger Canadians (25 per cent) are more likely to say they'd ignore a voluntary census than middle-aged (20 per cent) or older people (13 per cent). And men (22 per cent) are significantly more likely than women (16 per cent) to say they would not fill out the form.

The online poll, conducted July 16-19 with a sample of 1,036 adults, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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