Posted by Joshua on Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

The cease fire in Zabadani has collapsed due to government strikes on the city, reports Brian Whitaker of the Guardian. Earlier the BBC announced that the Syrian army ‘agrees to ceasefire in Zabadani’, which had been reported by Radwan Ziadeh in the US. There was some excitement about the cease-fire development when it was first announced because it suggests that the Syrian military is overwhelmed by the spread of conflict to towns on the outskirts of Damascus. It also suggests that regions of Syria were falling out of government control and staying out of government control to create a “Libya like” situation where rebels could operate and organize without remaining on the run.

Opposition members argue that the Free Syrian Army based in Turkey are spearheading and commanding the fight in Zabadani. Nir Rosen, who has recently come out of Syria after a two month stay, argues on al-Jazeera (linked below) that the opposition claim of the existence of a centrally commanded Free Syrian Army is a myth. He claims that the militias that are springing up in different towns are locally commanded and organized and do not take orders from Col. Asaad or his FSA in Turkey. If this is true, it suggests that multiple militias are emerging, which may eventually struggle for command of Syria and take the place of the Syrian Army, unless they can negotiate some agreement on a central command. In the meantime, it is convenient for the opposition to call opposition forces the Free Syrian Army.

Film of the death of of the French journalist near the end of the clip. Friends explain that this film was taken in Homs in an Alawite neighborhood, which was hit by a mortar, killing a number of people on the street and the French journalist. Opposition sources argue the mortar was launched by government operatives in order to make the opposition look bad for killing civilians and to stir up civil war. Government sources blame it on opposition forces who are firing on Alawi districts. They argue that mortars cost only $400 and can be smuggled from Lebanon and Iraq without much trouble. This film clip is proof of how difficult it is to understand what is going on based on YouTube movie clips.

Sky News broadcast this Homs story from a team that visited the Alawi and Christian neighborhoods of Homs. As the reporter explains, the pro-Assad sentiment and reports of torture by opposition members expressed in this story are as one sided, but perhaps as representative, as other reports from opposition neighborhoods, such as the BBC report “Syria Undercover” broadcast a month ago. It is worth noting that Alawis and Christians only make up about 20% of Syria.

(Reuters) – The Arab League has not received any official request or suggestion that it send Arab troops to Syria, an Arab representative to the Cairo-based League told Reuters on Sunday.

Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said on Saturday that Arab troops may have to step in to halt the bloodshed in Syria since the start of protests against President Bashar al-Assad in March.

“There is no official suggestion to send Arab troops to Syria at the current time … There has been no Arab or a non-Arab agreement on a military intervention in Syria for the time being,” the representative to the League said.

Erica Chenoweth has a concise post arguing that Syria now meets the academic definition of a civil war. Her thoughts beg an interesting follow-up question: if Syria is in a civil war, why isn’t it being called a civil war?

In the United States, one possibility is that the Obama administration prefers a narrative of democratic protest against a brutal regime. A civil war, which means both pro- and anti-regime violence, muddies that narrative. For instance, in late December, a Syrian opposition figure said he told (h/t syriacomment.com) US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about a nascent guerilla movement:

To my surprise, she asked that the defectors lay down their arms. That’s an odd request. Why didn’t they ask the rebels in Libya to lay down their arms? How can they do it if at any moment they can be fired at and murdered? It’s impractical.

If Secretary Clinton is still trying to discourage Syrian opposition violence, then admitting a civil war is underway would not be helpful. (Are Clinton or other US officials afraid that a civil war would be a pathway to sectarian fighting and spreading regional violence?)…..

A leading MP and an opposition figure who heads Syria’s largest tribe announced they have defected and gone into exile, in interviews broadcast on Monday on Al-Arabiya television.

“I have come to Turkey to activate the opposition. The Syrian revolution is our path. The country’s youth are making the greatest sacrifices for a better future,” Al-Baqqara tribal chief Nawaf al-Bashir told the satellite channel.

Bashir said he had been coerced to appear on state television in Syria to praise the reforms which President Bashar al-Assad says he has launched.

He was a key supporter of the so-called Damascus Declaration which opposition leaders issued in 2005 to press for reform. He says he has been interrogated by the security services more than 75 times.

MP Imad Ghalioun, a member of parliament’s budget committee, said he had chosen Egypt as a base to try to help the opposition achieve “freedom and dignity” for the Syrian people in a future democratic state.

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The failure of an Arab League mission to stanch violence in Syria, an international community with little leverage and a government as defiant as its opposition is in disarray have left Syria descending into a protracted, chaotic and perhaps unnegotiable conflict.

The opposition speaks less of prospects for the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and more about a civil war that some argue has already begun, with the government losing control over some regions and its authority ebbing in the suburbs of the capital and parts of major cities like Homs and Hama. Even the capital, Damascus, which had remained calm for months, has been carved up with checkpoints and its residents have been frightened by the sounds of gunfire.

The deepening stalemate underlines the extent to which events are slipping out of control. In a town about a half-hour drive from Damascus, the police station was recently burned down and in retaliation electricity and water were cut off, diplomats say. For a time, residents drew water in buckets from a well. Some people are too afraid to drive major highways at night.

In Homs, a city that a Lebanese politician called “the Stalingrad of the Syrian revolution,” reports have grown of sectarian cleansing of once-mixed neighborhoods, where some roads have become borders too dangerous for taxis to cross. In a suggestion that reflected the sense of desperation, the emir of Qatar said in an interview with CBS, an excerpt of which was released Saturday, that Arab troops should intervene in Syria to “stop the killing.”

“There’s absolutely no sign of light,” said a Western diplomat in Damascus, a city once so calm it was called Syria’s Green Zone. “If anything, it’s darker than ever. And I don’t know where it’s going to end. I can’t tell you. I don’t think anyone can.”

Ian Black reports: Sipping tea in a smoky Damascus cafe, Adnan and his wife, Rima, look ordinary enough: an unobtrusive, thirtysomething couple winding down at the end of the working day in one of the tensest cities in the world. But like much else in the Syrian capital, they are not what they first seem: […]

Resolute Syrian President to Use ‘Iron Fist’, Debate Over International Intervention Propels Disunity Among Opposition
On Tuesday, January 10 during an address at Damascus University, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad highlighted ongoing government reforms and vowed to continue the government’s fight against terrorism and international conspirators. For its part, the Arab League observer mission in Syria has already been deemed a failure; violence has heavily intensified with over 400 killed since the first of its members arrived in country two weeks ago. At the same time, fuel and heating oil shortages, as well as a growing dearth of affordable food stuffs, are posing serious challenges to nearly all.

Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)

Efforts by the U.S. and the Arab League to work with a unified Syrian opposition have been stymied, mostly due to two opposition groups’ disagreement on foreign military action to oust President Bashar Assad.

A weeks-long effort to build a coalition between Syria’s two main opposition groups — the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria (NCB) — collapsed this week after it was reported that the groups had agreed to reject foreign intervention.

News of the deal caused an uproar in the Syrian National Council’s ranks, and the leadership quickly accused the NCB of passing off as a final agreement what they had considered talking points for an Arab League-sponsored opposition conference later this month.

A fractured opposition complicates international engagement and casts doubt about a post-Assad government.

The Syrian National Council supports international intervention, and in a meeting on Tuesday, its executive committee officially rejected the purported agreement with the NCB.

“We didn’t want to be on record saying we are against foreign intervention. We are for foreign intervention, but we don’t want to exchange a bad regime for an occupier,” said George Jabboure Netto, an Syrian National Council member.

It would be up to the U.N. Security Council to decide what intervention, including airstrikes, is required, he said. “We are not going to dictate how they should go about this.”

Press ReleaseSNC and FSA Agree on Activating Coordination Mechanism

A delegation from the Syrian National Council (SNC) met with the leadership of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on Thursday, January 12, 2012. The goal of the meeting was to increase the level of coordination and activate mechanisms of communications between them. The delegation, headed by Dr. Burhan Ghalioun, extensively discussed the situation on the ground and the organizational capacity of the FSA with Colonel Riad Al-Asa’ad and his deputy Malek Kurdi. Included in the discussion was an assessment of needs including reorganization and restructuring of FSA units. The parties agreed to formulate a detailed plan, to include the reorganization of FSA units and brigades, and the creation of a format to accommodate within FSA ranks additional officers and soldiers, especially senior military officials, who side with the revolution.

The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, has delivered his fifth speech since the popular uprising against his regime erupted in March 2011. Many of the themes were familiar—blaming the crisis on foreign conspiracies and Islamist terrorists, and offering promises of reform—and Mr Assad reiterated his resolve to crush the uprising by force. There was also a note of satisfaction that his regime has managed to check the efforts of some Arab League member states to press actively for UN Security Council intervention. However, this respite may not last.

The last time Mr Assad made a public appearance was on August 1st when he made a speech to mark army day. Since then Syria’s internal conflict has become steadily more violent and the regime has faced increasingly determined pressure from the EU, Turkey and, most recently, the Arab League. The death toll among Syrian civilians is now thought to exceed 6,000; the regime claims that more than 2,000 members of its security forces have been killed. There have also been two bomb attacks in Damascus that the government has tried to blame on al-Qaida, but which the opposition claims to have been staged by the regime in order to validate its narrative about external terrorist threats. The EU and Turkey have imposed economic sanctions, which have had a severe impact on the regime’s finances, and the Arab League, having suspended Syria’s membership, threatened to impose its own sanctions, until the government agreed terms for the dispatch of Arab monitors tasked with overseeing a reduction in regime violence against unarmed protesters…….

Discord

Another positive development from Mr Assad’s perspective has been the discord in the ranks of some of his opponents. The Syrian National Council (SNC) has tried to project itself as the most representative force among the opposition, having drawn together many of its strands, including the Muslim Brotherhood, exiled liberal intellectuals, Kurdish groups and activists from the underground local co-ordinating committees (LCCs) operating within Syria. However, another opposition group, the National Co-ordinating Body (NCB), some of whose activists remain in full view inside Syria, has become a thorn in the side of the SNC. Representatives of the two groups met in Cairo at the start of January, and news emerged suggesting that they had agreed on a common platform, including a rejection of international intervention and an agreement to negotiate with regime elements not directly implicated in violence. The SNC quickly denied that any such agreement had been reached and that the NCB had leaked a discussion document; the NCB denied this, and accused the SNC of backtracking. The NCB’s external leader, Haitham Mannaa, has derided his rivals as being a toxic mixture of Islamists and neo-conservatives, and has insisted that Syria’s future should remain an exclusively Arab concern. Bourhan Ghalioun, the chairman of the SNC, said that Mr Assad’s speech had made it abundantly clear that the regime had no intention of complying with the Arab League’s demands, and that the only way forward was to fully engage the international community in affording protection to the Syrian civilian population. According to the LCCs more than 30 people were killed by regime security forces on the day of Mr Assad’s speech, the majority of them in the north-eastern city of Deir al-Zor.

Fantasy reforms

Mr Assad devoted much of the latter part of his speech to describing the progress that he had made with political reforms. He ticked off the law passed to lift the state of emergency, a political parties law (which he said had now resulted in the first new parties being licensed), a new election law, a media law and the staging of local elections in early December. He said that he had intended to pass an anti-corruption law, but that it had been delayed to allow for more study and consultation. The next major step would be to hold a referendum in early March to approve a new constitution drawn up by a committee appointed last year. Two to three months after the constitution is approved, there would be a general election for a new parliament—the mandate of the previous parliament ran out in April; the assembly has since reconvened on a provisional basis. Mr Assad sought to present these reforms as advancing with significant popular participation, thereby branding the entire opposition movement as being beyond the political pale. His reform project would look more credible if he could co-opt some elements of the opposition to become involved, but there is so far little sign that the regime will manage to pull this off. Even Mr Mannaa of the NCB still professes that his group’s objective is to bring down the Assad regime.

Points of weakness

For all his bravado, Mr Assad’s regime continues to survive only because of its brutal use of force and thanks to some residual support that it enjoys from Russia, China, a handful of Arab states, Iran and Venezuela (which has recently provided some shipments of petroleum products). The documenting of incidents by opposition groups and the dissemination of videos to media organisations has acted as a constraint on the regime, meaning that it has not been possible to raze whole areas to the ground along the lines of the subjugation of Hama in 1982. However, the accumulation of evidence that the regime has being carrying out a systematic campaign of gross abuses of human rights means that there is no chance of the Assad regime returning to some semblance of business as usual. Sanctions can only become stiffer. Whether through incremental foreign intervention or an internal collapse, or a combination of the two, it is probable that the Assad regime will eventually be brought down.

(Translated by Max Weiss.) Samar Yazbek on the Syrian Revolt is a Syrian writer and journalist. In August 2011 she wrote in these pages about her experience of being detained after a demonstration. She is one of the Beirut 39 authors.

Well what else is it that keeps you among the worshipers of this dying regime than your believe? I did not see any proof in that article. If i take the same technique of you guys i could say why are there no names listed of the informers within the AL? Does this make it more credible when LE FIGARO prints it?
When i read the BBC report its not more obvious or different from what the swiss reporters were saying, and the BBC reporters were inside the group of chosen ones who were taken directly at the site of the attack. If the opposition did that why was there no counterattack? Given three shoots were made, one with an military mind could make out from where the attacks where launched. To my limited military knowledge i would say that the lauch was less than 500-800m away, probably from the roof of an building. Also as the reporters said, why did the military escorts left right before the attacks?

I am the last to give the opposition an what we call in German an Persilschein- an clean record. There are no excuses and let there be no misunderstanding any violation of human rights by whomsoever should be made public.
This regime is after what we have heard from Hama in 1982 capable of doing atrocities and let there no doubt about it they have the means and the motiv to make hell on earth for everyone who endanger their system. Why has the world so easily accepted the possibility that the Medan bombings were more likely carried out by the government itself? In my understanding this brutalization of the civil masses is an result of the brutality this regime showed to its own citizens for no other reason than to create fear and to stay in power with this fear.

A friend of mine fought in the bosnian war and he described me that in one village they had found all inhabitants killed. The only place in the village which looked kind of normal was the bakery. There was smoke coming out the chimney. When they opened the oven they have found 4 children who were put alive in the oven. He told me that after that the next time they captured an Serbian, he got beaten to death in a slow way so he would suffer more. I believe it takes just a few episodes or experiences like that to create killer machines, we all are bound to morality,but if we experience such we will all most likely become less of a human. This is true for opposition forces as for government forces.

People like you will of course not see this part of reality, and here we are back to my conclusion that many are out there who still worship this regime, and their daily prayer is bashar wa baas.

Zoo,
Mr. Labwani is one of the few liberals who joined the SNC because they found in the MBs the strongest mule they can use to get rid of the regime, that about it, and their plan is to defect from the SNC the moment the regime falls, the MBs know that too and they too can’t wait for the regime to fall to ditch the liberals, but for now, both of them need each others and they are using each others to get the strength each one of them misses.
This partnership wont stand for an extra one hour when they get what they want, therefore, all these comments by the liberals or the secular figures of the SNC are allowed, just for now!

Jad
Thanks.believe it or not : This is a war,it is a war between Dark and light,civilization and
Destruction ,honesty and lies….I don’t care about the regime all I care about is not to
Let those Terrorists get hands on a country I love.Any one who support terrorists is an enemy to the syrian people.With all the noise going around we have all lost the Syrian rhythm and became more or less neutralized with any thing.Tactics of pro terrorists crow
On this site has been very successful in making every one doubt the basic stuff.Any one who is not with the revolution in Bab Omer gets killed,Any one who is not with the revolution here at SC gets attacked by pro terrorists gangs like Revlon,Tara,Majed the Salafi,Khaled the Wahabi and Hyatham the Christian molla….I am too busy to be on SC
And exose their lies day and night….They are all paid representative at this site:Revlon
Is MB payroll,Tara is MB or Turkish agent,Amir is Mossad payroll,Majed is Salafi pay roll
…..they all have one common goal:DESTRUCTION OF SYRIA.

Dear SNK
I understand your frustration and pain, I’m with you.
What do you think that makes me stay on SC this long? Like you, it’s my passion to Syria, however, if we learn one thing from this is that we must bring our differences to the table and talk about it, it’s not about Bashar anymore, some people think it is, I don’t, it became too big, too complicated, too important and too costly to concentrate it in one person, it’s not, he can be replaced but we can’t replace our homeland.
I think it’s about the future of all of us together, not mine or yours or Tara’s alone, it’s the future of all of us and if we can’t work it out between us with the huge differences and mistrust we have nobody can make it work and for the sake of Syria we must do it the right way, it may take time until we gain trust again but we have no choice, learning to listen to each other fears, visions, ideas and try to close the gap between us is what will make it work, other than that we are committing a suicide.
We are just few Syrians of many who are doing the exact same thing,so try to let your anger out but don’t make it take over your logic, we all need cool heads, me first, am I right my dear friend SNK

Here is something that may make you feel better, Mr. Yaseen Haj Sale7 for some ‘reason’ suddenly is waking up only after 10 months, he and his friends just noticed that naming the Fridays should be done in a different way and Fida2 shouldn’t be the only one choosing tsk tsk tsk

Revlon
You are sick minded ,psycko,blood thirsty Moran .you love killing and blood.what happened with your peaceful fucking lies?
Why are your rats turning their behind to the camera ?is that because they are like your god Alaaroor exposing their behind?

سرقة متحف درعا الوطني ليل أمس
Daraa Museum was looted las night by security forces.
It is the second looting of Museums since the start of the revolution. The first one was in Hama where a golden statue of Aramic diety was stolen by Baathist caretaker of the museum.

Your gangs uncivilized Aaroorists pigs did that Mr Allah Akbar.The Same pigs looted Bagdad musem and Cairo musem, Same pigs destroyed Buddha statue in Afghanstan,it is All the same infection,you are not in fault ,you are just infected.

Heroic work of the Bastards of FSA: Killing civilians.watch this and see shrameet alFSA
In Action.They don’t even know how to stage a show.watch them while they kick they daughter of this old Christian man away after they killed him.The San thing is the Christian
West is supporting these Shrameet.So far at least 500 Christians have been killed by the shrameet Wahhabis in Homs and surroundings .The Pope,Sarkoozi,Europ,USA ….all
Are supporting these Shrameet :

If you keep coming back with the massacre of 1982 that many justify as a retaliation to terrorists acts, why don’t you come back to 1939-1945 massacres that no one can ever justify? There were horror stories much worse than in Serbia or Syria.
Racism and violence is still latent in Germany and you know it. Germans and French are the last to give lessons
By the way, I am the last to give the regime an what we call in German an Persilschein- an clean record.”
I worship no one and I only want the Syrians to get out of that mess with the least suffering and avoiding the destruction of the social tissue that makes the beauty of this country of tolerance .

…
Indeed anti-Assad Security Council members, the United States, France and Britain—as well as other leading Western states—seem happy to take a back-seat approach; more concerned, it would seem, with domestic and financial matters. Granted, they have condemned and sanctioned the regime, but this has been their policy for many months. Clearly their actions and calls for reform are being ignored. They have also called for the matter to be discussed in the Security Council, though these calls have been less fierce and frequent than in the past. A systemic drive to pressure Russia and China is conspicuously absent.

Turkey, which is playing a central role in the drive to oust Assad, by, for example, hosting the Syrian National Council and issuing the most vociferous threats against the regime by any NATO member, has also been less vocal in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, other Arab League countries such as Saudi Arabia and its GCC partners are conspicuously quiet; they appear unwilling to steer the ship, yet are unprepared to let the Security Council take control. Bahrain is troubled by its own anti-regime demonstrations, which a GCC force helped to violently subdue in March, and a sterner position on Syria would obviously smack of double standards. But rather than pay lip service to Syrian protesters and extend the ineffective observers’ mission, they should push for the Security Council to take on a greater role.
…
Although it will be no mean feat, through their cumulative efforts, Arab League members, Western states and Turkey could exert enough pressure on Russia and China to ensure that a meaningful resolution in the Security Council is adopted. This may just be the tipping point.

270. Dear Syria no Kandahar:
The English title of the video, its English subtitles and its annotated English summary are gross and twisted misrepresentation of its Arabic sound track!

Your posting of this fabricated video underscores the blind hatred that you hold against your opposites.
Your posting was either an honest, yet stupid, Muallem-style mistake, or a deliberate and diabolic act act of deception targetting Non-Arabic readers on SC; In either case it speaks for a rash, subcortical judjement.

You said:
((Christian Man in Homs Killed By terrorists In Homs Dec 13 2011
Heroic work of the Bastards of FSA: Killing civilians.watch this and see shrameet alFSA In Action.They don’t even know how to stage a show. watch them while they kick they daughter of this old Christian man away after they killed him.
The San thing is the Christian West is supporting these Shrameet.
So far at least 500 Christians have been killed by the shrameet Wahhabis in Homs and surroundings .The
Pope,Sarkoozi,Europ,USA ….all
Are supporting these Shrameet ))

Here is the English translation of the conversation that took place in Arabic in that video, which carry completely the opposite message to that portrayed in the forged subtitles and annotated summary:

Here are the facts of the video as told in Arabic in the sound track:
Young rescuers/civilian bystanders shouting in panic:
– There! She is inside the car!
– Homs, Bab AlSbaa
– Allhu Akbar (God is greater)!

Young resucer addressing the lady driver:
– Easy, easy !

Lady replies in anger:
– Leave me alone; I do not have the time for you!

Rescuer to the Lady driver:
– Get down here I said; You are wounded in the neck!
– Come down here! You need to fix your neck!

Lady driver:
Leave my father!
My Neck?!

Rescuer: Allahu Akbar (God is Greater)! There is shooting at people driving cars!
– The Guy is dead! He is dead!
– He has been Martyred.
– May God disown you Bashar (Al Assad)!
– Qalaa Checkpoint (Assad forces) are shooting at people driving cars!

Another Rescuer shouting:
– The Guy is Christian. He is neither Salafi nor Mindass (Infiltrator)!
– The bullet entered from the back! Look at the wound!
– He is neither Salafi, Nor Mindas!
– This is Bab Alsbaa, Haj Badr AlQasiri street!
– Allahu Akbar (God is greater)!
– There are no Doctors around! The street is deserted!
– The date is 13/12/2011 Bab Al Sibaa.
– The guy was hit while inside the car with his daughter!
– Hurry! Some one brings a car!
– Watch out for shooting from Qalaa checkpoint!
– Let’s lift him up
– Say in the name of God and let’s pull him away!
– God is greater Ya Bashar
– Homs Bab AlSibaa
An older man was shot while riding in a car. He is Christian. His name is Sami Makhoul! He was killed.
His daughter was wounded in the neck.

Reading the conversation one can tell that those civilians were
– in panic
– trying to evacuate a mortally wounded civilian
– allerting the daughter to a wound in her neck.
– Muslems
– disgusted at the killing of a Christian as he could not be a Salafi!
– The shooting was coming from Qalaa check point (Assad forces)
– damning bashar Al Assad for killing people!

BEIRUT — A string of explosions struck a police truck transporting prisoners in a tense area of northwestern Syria on Saturday, killing at least 14 people, the country’s state-run news agency and an opposition group said.

Troops fought intense battles against defectors elsewhere in northern Syria, activists said, leaving “dozens” of people wounded. The 10-month uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad has turned increasingly militarized and chaotic as more frustrated regime opponents and army defectors arm themselves and fight back against government forces.
SANA news agency blamed the attack on the police truck on “terrorists” and said it occurred on the Idlib-Ariha highway, an area near the Turkish border that has witnessed intense fighting with army defectors recently.

Four bombs that went off in “two phases” hit the truck, and then attackers targeted an ambulance that arrived to assist the wounded, SANA reported.

Six policemen who were accompanying the prisoners were also wounded, some of them in critical condition, it said.

The British-based opposition activist group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, confirmed the incident Saturday and said 15 prisoners were killed.

Rami Abdul-Rahman, director of the group, said the truck was hit by several roadside bombs, but it was not clear who was behind the attack.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but members of the so-called Free Syrian Army are known to be active in the area.

January 21, 2012
For the Muslim world, it’s not a safe and easy path to modernity
By DOUG SAUNDERS
From Saturday’s Globe and Mail
Countries like Tunisia and Egypt are changing the same way France did, with wild swings of revolution and reaction

A year ago, as he watched the great uprisings in Tunis and Cairo, French scholar Olivier Roy declared that they marked the end of Islamist politics. “If you look at the people who launched these revolts,” he wrote, “it is clear that they represent a post-Islamist generation. … The new revolutionaries are perhaps practising or even devout Muslims, but they separate their religious faith from their political agenda. In that sense, it is a ‘secular’ movement that separates religion from politics.”

Well, you might say, how awkward. Those January protesters may have been secular and liberal, but, when I visited Tahrir Square six months later, Islamists commanded the stage. We’ve recently watched Egypt’s first somewhat free elections give 48 per cent of the vote to a party controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, plus 20 per cent to 28 per cent to Salafists, who aren’t just Islamist but want an actual theocracy. Secular liberals were left with a rump of 15 per cent to 20 per cent. If this is “post-Islamist,” it sure has a lot of crescents and guys with beards.

This week, Dr. Roy – probably the world’s most respected scholar on Islamic societies and politics – was asked to explain himself on French radio. Did the Islamist electoral victories in Tunisia and Egypt pour cold water on his “post-Islamist” prognostication? Quite the contrary, he said. They proved it. The new individualism behind the Arab revolutions, he said, has led Arabs to vote for parties with an Islamic identity (in large part, because “secularism” was strongly associated with the dictatorships they overthrew) – but, in the process, it’s forced those parties to abandon the Islamist goal of a pure religious society governed only by the Koran.

“Islamist movements like Ennahda in Tunisia and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt can no longer even be called Islamist,” he said. “They are conservatives analogous to the religious right in the United States.” Much as socialist parties in the West had to abandon the revolutionary goals of Marxism to become electable, the new Islamist parties have had to give up actual Islamism: They can’t impose the Koran on people, but rather combine “a religious reference” with democratic bids to influence “family values.”

I don’t quite share Mr. Roy’s optimism. While an Iranian-style theocracy isn’t a possibility in Egypt, there are leaders in the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party whose views on women and Israel are alarming enough and whose ties to Egypt’s military overlords appear authoritarian enough that the result could look a lot like Islamism.

Where the “post-Islamism” scholars do have a point is in their reading of the trends that led people to vote for the Islamist parties. These, paradoxically enough, are driven by a shift to secularization of private life. Egypt and its neighbours are in the midst of the same demographic change that revolutionized the West two centuries ago: Fertility rates are falling to European levels, and institutions such as first-cousin marriages are becoming increasingly rare. Religion has become a badge of identity, not a way of life.

This shift has made Islamists desperate to seize influence, because social influence can now only be won through politics. And it has put them in a unique position to gain it. Former Ottoman states such as Egypt never bothered to replace the religious obligation to give alms with a secular obligation to pay taxes. So the imams and mullahs became not only the leading voice of dissent but also the leading source of welfare. That, more than the Koran, wins them votes.

“The fundamental contradiction of Islamism is that its leaders think of themselves as guardians of a tradition, whereas the popular wave behind them is the result of a modernizing mental revolution,” demographers Youssef Courbage and Emmanuel Todd write in their analysis of Muslim-country modernization, A Convergence of Civilizations. “Political victory is inevitably followed by cultural defeat.”

The shift in western thinking,if you believe there was actually a shift,is to keep a weak government in Syria with or without Bashar,keep the sanctions and pressure Iran and its friends until the situation allows a more aggressive approach.
Removing Bashar will give his opponents a symbolic victory which is not probably enough to pacify the streets but it can send a signal to Iran and Hizbullah. This plan includes forming a government that gives the power-hungry opposition access to Syria’s limited sources and help balance an expected surge of islamists. The fight over Syria is not about oil or money,it is about Iran and the balance of power in the middle east,the well-being of
Syrians is at the buttom of the wish list of western and GCC government.
This plan is doomed to fail as it ignores the will of a significant section of the Syrian society which is not ready to accept a half victory,it also underestimates the determination of the Iranian regime. The more probable course is further escalation until the Iranian issue is settled,and even then,Syrians in the streets may choose to reject any compromise. The weakest party here is secular Syrians who may emerge as the top losers, the failure to omit the line about the religion of the president in the constitution draft is an example,the regime kept it in an effort to win the support of certain segments of the religious establishment.

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, following events in Syria from neighbouring Lebanon, said the police vehicle may not have been deliberately targeted.

“There are roadside bombs planted [by the opposition] all along the highway in that area,” she said. “The police vehicle may have been targeted unintentionally.”

Idlib, the base of many defected soldiers, has become a stronghold of the armed opposition, which has been targeting army convoys to prevent them from regaining pockets of territory under the opposition’s control.

“This is strategic territory because it could provide them with a supply route to Turkey,” our correspondent said.

Syrian activists in the Turkish border city of Antakya blamed the bus explosion on the government, saying it was carried out to “get rid of prisoners”.
…

You have posted two reports on the same incident.
Allegations of FSA responsibility, which they have denied, are based on Rami Abdulrahman’s and anonymous activist stories.
Members of SOHR are considering filing a law suit against him.

So-called Rami Abdulrahman has been expelled from SOHR.
Reasons given included his publishing of unsubstantiated reports of regime casualties and links to notorious Rifaat Al Asad.
The anonymous activist’s credibility is as uncertain as his identity!

The ambush on the bus carrying prisoners was probably conducted by anti regime armed forces who are now planting bombs in Hama and Idleb to target regime vehicles,it is fairly possible that they did not know that the bus was full of prisoners but the end result is the same: 15 Syrians are dead.

288. Ghufran,
((The ambush on the bus carrying prisoners was probably conducted by anti regime armed forces who are now planting bombs in Hama and Idleb to target regime vehicles,it is fairly possible that they did not know that the bus was full of prisoners but the end result is the same: 15 Syrians are dead))

FSA announce all their operations; they have nothing to hide!
This operation was denied by FSA.
Claims by the notorious SANA and shady Rami Abdulrahman to the contrary serve to confirm FSA’s side of the story.

Three cars, Klashnikovs and a sniper rfile were confiscated by FSA Unit in Homs from the hands of Assad Shabbeeha.

The good news is these cars and rifles shall no longer be available to Shabbeha to use them in killing civilians.
Instead, they shall be used to patrol neighbourhoods and defend civilians against the agressors; Assad shabbeeha.

Prisoners being killed by the FSA in error is too shady of a claim to believe. More plausible explanation would be an innovative way by the evil regime to dispose the deads through a make-believe suicide bombs Qaeda- style or a road side bomb blowing a bus with full load of cadavers then blaming it on the revolution. The regime is probably afraid of mass graves that could be used as an incriminating evidence at the Hauge. How come Qaeda’s or FSA’s bombing never been deployed to only affect the regime or it’s supporters?

I have never read in any of Juergen’s comments that he supports the Nazi party, or any of Hitlers despicable crimes. As for the Germans having nothing to teach, lets examine some facts:

_ Germany: Not only recognizes the crimes committed by the Nazis but has outlawed the party (and any and all symbols to the party), built memorial museums where many of the innocent victims died, paid reparations not only to Israel, but to Poland, Netherlands, and the former Yugoslavia (Not to mention what they paid the Allies).

– Assad/Baath: Does not recognize any massacre happening, has paid no reparations, continues to exist and continues to massacre Syrians, has built a government owned Hotel over the bodies of the massacre.

Nobody is denying the fact the MB instigated a confrontation with the Syrian army, what is being denied is the over the top, scorched earth policy, punish the population tactics that the regime chose and continues to choose to this day.

292. Dear zoo:
((Revlon #287
Al Jazeera :
“The Local Co-ordination Committees activist network confirmed the attack and the death toll, distributing footage purportedly showing the victims.”))
I have just provided the LCC statement!
Where did the LCC state that the attack was carried by FSA by mistake?

From the Angry Arab
Syrian rebels in Zabadani
`Ali sent me this: ” About the picture of the “unshaved” Syrian rebels, They seem to be carrying “G3A3″ assault rifles, a German model used by only it’s two neighbors, the Lebanese Army, and the Royal Jordanian Land Forces, The Syrian Army is equipped solely with Ex-Soviet Bloc weaponry, So i guess there’s truth to the accounts of illegal arms transfer to the rebels,”http://www.angryarab.com

Germany have a history of genocides and horrible medical experimentation on prisoners.

All germans bear the responsibility of what happened during the war, including young germans whose family were either pro nazi or accepted tacitly the massacres. It is a stain on their nation that nothing can ever correct and all the Germans deep inside know it. The worst part of it was that it was pure racism and cold blood on unarmed innocents. They were not provoked.
As for regretting and paying for forgiveness, they had no choice, they were vanquished, they lost the war.
After the Jews, we, Arabs, were next in the concentration camps.
Even today Germany suffer of a “mild form” of racism. It is obvious that if any economical crisis happen in Germany, their latent racism and feeling of their race superiority may reappear.
“Undercover journalist Gunter Wallraff traveled across Germany for more than a year wearing a dark-haired curly wig and with his white skin painted black.[20] The film reveals a frightening degree of racism in Germany. Wallraff said that “I hadn’t known what we would discover, and had thought maybe the story will be, what a tolerant and accepting country we have become,” said Mr Wallraff after a screening of the film Black on White in Berlin. “Unfortunately I was wrong.”[20][21]

With a past and a present like that, they have no lesson to give to anyone.

297. Dear Mina,
Syrian rebels in Zabadani
`Ali sent me this: ” About the picture of the “unshaved” Syrian rebels, They seem to be carrying “G3A3″ assault rifles, a German model used by only it’s two neighbors, the Lebanese Army, and the Royal Jordanian Land Forces, The Syrian Army is equipped solely with Ex-Soviet Bloc weaponry, So i guess there’s truth to the accounts of illegal arms transfer to the rebels,”
From the Angry Arab

You do need an angry arab to tell you that illegal arms are being transfered to “rebles”

Take it from the calm and self assured leader of the FSA!
He repeatedly said that FSA get their arms in part from dealers who operate across borders, especially from lebanon.
Moreover, some of the suppliers are Assad family and accomplices!

Unshaven rebels!
It just shows how disconnected some of those posters from the situation on the ground.
FSA fighters are on the run; they have much more pressing priorities than to shave their beards.
besides, with the ubiquitous, severe shortage in heating fuel and Gaz and electricity even civilians in restive areas now find it a luxury to shave.