The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) jumped again climbing 7 basis points to 3.98% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 5% and the refinance application volume increased 5% over the same period.

Rates have risen steadily for the past few weeks seemingly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year. Only time will tell if this is a trend or simply an aberration.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).