Lois Frankel poll shows lead over Kristin Jacobs in Congress primary

Lois Frankel is claiming a strong lead over Kristin Jacobs in the contest for the Democratic nomination for Congress in a critical Broward-Palm Beach County district.

Though a large share of Democrats haven't yet made up their minds, Frankel's campaign said Wednesday a new poll shows her leading Jacobs 46 percent to 16 percent.

In Palm Beach County, Frankel's poll shows her leading Jacobs 66 percent to 8 percent. Frankel is a former West Palm Beach mayor and represented the county in the Florida House, where she rose to minority party leader.

The picture is better for Jacobs in Broward, where she's a 14-year member of the County Commission. They're reportedly tied in Broward, with Frankel at 26 percent and Jacobs at 25 percent.

The numbers appear good for Frankel, but at least some skepticism is in order. Her campaign released only the results for a few poll questions without details, including the wording of the questions or the order in which they were asked. All those factors can skew results, which is why all opinion polls need to be viewed with caution.

A memo released by Frankel's consultants suggests Jacobs has an insurmountable task if she hopes to win the August primary.

"Frankel's lead in the vote, and her advantage in name identification, will be extremely difficult for Jacobs to overcome, especially in light of Frankel's large fundraising advantage," the memo said. "Lois Frankel has a massive lead in name identification and personal popularity."

"We did an internal poll and what we know is when we have the opportunity to introduce the voters to Kristin, Kristin wins," she said. Monserrat declined to release her campaign's numbers.

"I find it kind of amusing that Lois released this information. She must feel threatened that Kristin is in the race," Monserrat said.

Frankel entered the race in March 2011, when controversial freshman U.S. Rep. Allen West, R-Plantation, was seeking reelection in the 22nd Congressional District.

In January, West abandoned the Broward-Palm Beach County district and is running instead in more Republican-friendly territory in northern Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties.

Jacobs, who entered the race in February, hasn't had nearly as much time as Frankel to build up her campaign.

Fundraising reports filed over the weekend with the Federal Election Commission showed Frankel with a financial lead.

Frankel's campaign reported she raised $408,414 in the three months that ended March 31. She's raised a total of $1.8 million, but much of that came when she was able to use West as a fundraising vehicle to get money from Democratic activists.

Jacobs, who began her campaign more than halfway through the fundraising quarter, took in $203,931, falling short of the $250,000 she said she hoped to raise.

Former Florida House Minority Leader Adam Hasner, R-Boca Raton, is unopposed for the Republican nomination.