Kyoto protocol gasps for breath

Polluting countries of the world could go scot free from January 1, 2013, in the absence of any legally binding environmental regulation in force.

This is the danger staring the world if thousands of diplomats, officials and political leaders gathered in Doha, the capital city of Qatar, fail to make up their minds over the next five days.

The very future of Kyoto Protocol - the only legally binding instrument available to curb greenhouse emissions at present - depends on the outcome of the current round of negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which enter the second week on Monday.

Activists stand with a banner before a march to demand action to address climate change in Doha

The protocol was adopted at Kyoto in 1997 and came into force in 2005. Under it, 37 industrialised and developed countries accepted to cap carbon production from power stations and industrial installations, while developing countries such as India and China were mandated to take measures but without caps.

The first round of commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions made by developed countries spanning five years comes to an end on December 31, 2012.

If the second round of commitments is not decided at Doha, signatories to the protocol don't have to bother about any caps and they can emit as much as they want.

For the past two rounds of negotiations, the issue of extending Kyoto Protocol has been discussed but with no conclusion.

This is because the developed world wants emerging economies such as India and China - which have become major emitters of greenhouses gases since the treaty was finalised a decade ago - also to commit to caps. India, along with other emerging economies, has been opposed to this because Kyoto Protocol is based on the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibility'.

"The treaty may remain on paper, but it is more than clear that there will be no second period of commitment beyond December 31", Mukul Sanwal, climate change expert and a former official of UNFCCC, said.

"Russia, Canada and Japan have already made it clear that they are not interested in any new commitments, while the European Union is talking of making only a 'political commitment' as such," Sanwal added.

The US is not a signatory to Kyoto, while Canada has walked out of it. In the negotiations held so far, developed countries have maintained an ambivalent stand.

They have been talking of continuing with the Kyoto Protocol, but are not willing to commit to any numbers.

At the Durban round of talks last year, EU had agreed to a second commitment period in exchange for all countries, including India and China, joining a new framework starting 2020.