Monday, December 23, 2013

Staunton, December 23 – Unless the
Russian government takes effective measures over the next decade to raise birthrates
and cut super-high death rates, two Moscow experts say, the country will see a
catastrophic decline not only in its overall population but even more among
those of working age.

Darya Khalturina and Yevgenya
Yuryeva of the Institute of Scientific-Societal Expertise say that the
authorities must act now because they have less than a decade to prevent Russia
from going into a demographic tailspin in which its total population would fall
by a third and the fraction of that population capable of working by more than
that (opec.ru/1622698.html).

Because there have been improvements
in both birthrates and death rates over the last several years, they say, many
assume that Russia’s demographic problems are behind it. But there are two
reasons why that is not the case:

On the one hand, over the next ten
years, the number of women in the prime child-bearing age group will fall by 50
percent because of low birthrates in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Consequently, even if the birth rate remained where it is today, the number of
children would decline.

And on the other, while it has indeed
fallen somewhat in recent years, the level of male mortality in Russia remains “extremely
high by international measures.” That is reflected in the fact that Russian men
live on average 12 years less than Russian women do and that Russia’s mortality
rate is higher than in places like Mali, Burundi, and Cameroun.

Some Russian officials are placing their
hopes in immigration as a solution to this demographic problem, but their hopes
are misplaced. Most of the countries which currently provide migrant labor to
Russia are suffering from their own demographic decline and soon will not have
the numbers of young men to send to Russia.

“If the most immediate and serious
measures for the complete liquidation of Russian super-high mortality and the
increase in the birthrate are not taken, Russia will face a colossal reduction
in the working age population” in the coming decades, with the number in that
category falling by “more than 26 million by 2050.”

To increase the birthrate up to
replacement levels – about 2.1 children per woman – will require more
subsidies, more housing, more daycare, and more flexibility in the workplace,
the two say. To cut super-high male mortality in turn will require better
medical care and anti-alcohol and anti-tobacco efforts.

According to the researchers, Russia has
a greater chance to improve its birthrate than do many European countries and
will be able to do so without spending nearly as much money. But it almost certainly
will have to spend more than it does now. Moscow spends about 1.5 percent of
GDP on family policy while European countries are spending three to four
percent.

The two Moscow researchers say that
changing gender roles will also help. “In countries where gender equality
exists,” they write, “women are in parliament and concern about motherhood is
greater.” As a result, there are more kindergartens, grants and better
conditions of work for women.”

But however much Moscow does to improve
the demographic situation of its indigenous population, they continue, it will
have to rely for some time on migration both within the country and from nearby
countries.Russia will need approximately
300,000 immigrant workers every year through 025. “Otherwise it will be
impossible” to prevent population decline.

At the same time, they say, Moscow must work
to reduce emigration from Russia by increasing pay, improving the investment
climate, making the country more business-friendly, reducing corruption, and
giving people greater opportunities for productive and rewarding employment.

Khalturina and Yuryeva warn that these
steps must be taken now: “ten years from today will be too late.”What they don’t say and what may be the
saddest aspect of this situation is that almost all of the measures they
propose are at odds with the policies President Vladimir Putin and his regime
appear committed to.