Conor McGregor(21-3) @ Floyd Mayweather Jr.(49-0)

Among all prop bets offered by various books for the late-August superfight between MMA star Conor McGregor and undefeated boxing representative Floyd Mayweather Jr., one in particular stands out:

Yes/No – Will the fight take place on August 26th?

A cancellation or postponement of McGregor-Mayweather would reward the “no” wager in large bills (+550 at Bet Online) but it’s fitting that in such a wild publicity stunt of a fight (dubbed “The 180-Million Dollar Dance” by promoters), even the scheduling itself isn’t free of suspicion.

Yet as circus-like as the event already seems, history tells us that boxer vs grappler (or kick-boxer) bouts usually take place as planned.

Whether they entertain or not is another matter – wrestler Antonio Inoki famously used a spider-like defensive posture in his 1976 showdown with Muhammad Ali, which was effective but turned the match into a snoozer. When Andre the Giant fought Chuck Wepner the same year, Andre barely tried until Wepner took too many liberties and the angry giant threw him out of the ring. Wepner would later lose to Inoki in Tokyo.

The good news for cash players? You’re not necessarily looking for an evenly-matched, thrill-a-minute classic…just a winning bet. So long as the McGregor-Mayweather tilt takes place, there will be a result, and judges awarding a draw is unlikely.

So let’s take a brief look at the rules, props offered, and how the novel atmosphere could affect both competitors before settling on a smart wager or two.

No McGrappling Allowed

The August 26th fight will be held strictly as a boxing match. That takes away use of two of Conor McGregor’s favorite weapons – his legs.

Though Mayweather is aging and enjoyed a short-lived “retirement” before signing on to this fight, his ring rust is widely considered to be less of a disadvantage than McGregor’s being barred from kicking and wrestling. Joseph Santoliquito of CBS News writes that for an MMA specialist who has never boxed, winning this bout would be like “stepping on the Moon” and one of the legendary upsets in history. The Irishman has nice punching ability, especially in close range, but he’s never taken on a championship-level pugilist over a grueling 12 rounds…or at all.

McGregor is only a 5/1 or 6/1 underdog (currently +550 at Bovada Sportsbook), which would logically rule out a bet on The Notorious to prevail – but Mayweather’s odds-to-win are almost prohibitively short. A modest bettor could wager close to her whole stake on the favorite and not win enough for a month’s rent. So to find value, an exact-outcome gamble is necessary.

When the book is stretched thin

Bookies are spending a lot of their “odds chips,” if you will, on possible winning outcomes for McGregor and KO chances for Mayweather. A 1st-round knockout win for either fighter is given the same (+1600) line at Bovada, showing that analysts expect early mayhem with a result in-doubt until Mayweather can get into the later rounds.

Nothing could be further from the truth. “Money” is a primarily defensive fighter who will not take a chance on getting tagged by McGregor’s quick left hand in a scramble. The 49-0 record is a marvel of preparation and execution, but the last time Mayweather knocked out an opponent was in 2012 – and that was with a cheap shot.

Remember the hype before Pacquiao-Mayweather that Pac Man would finally bother the champ and provoke a slug-fest? Mayweather later starred in a viral Punch Out! version of the fight as the “Smilin’ Dodger” who landed a total of one jab. But he won a decision…of course.

The money line for Mayweather-on-points is currently (+220) and the best bet on the board. The favorite will stay away from McGregor in early rounds, hoping to wear out the less experienced fighter and land a few pretty combinations later on.

McGregor knows he must conserve energy to go the distance. Mayweather knows a decision is 99% sure to go his way. The result will be a spotty, drama-free bout (as many such exhibitions become) with both men motivated to avoid a street fight. Better than 2/1 odds on a near-certain outcome? We’ll take that every time.

Pay-Per-Prop Bet

Bovada Sportsbook is offering (-200) odds on the proposition of 5,000,000+ pay-per-view buys for McGregor-Mayweather. Those odds would be even shorter, however, if they didn’t include the possibility of wet feet or an injury killing the event long before August 26th. Forbes estimates that the fight will draw five-and-a-half million paid households.

So if you feel relatively sure that the match will happen, take the easy (and potentially early) money with a prop bet “yes” on 5M+ buys.

“The Dance” will be all-too fitting

Don’t expect fireworks on 8/26. Like Inoki before him, McGregor will wage a strategic fight trying to get around the limitations of boxing rules.

Meanwhile, Mayweather will dance and dodge his way to an easy decision victory…watched by more viewers than ever. Play a pair of smart wagers and profit on both sides of the coin.

This article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.