Paris-Nice Stage 7 Preview

onSaturday, 16 March 2019

The Col de Turini summit finish, a big climb for March with over 1,000m of vertical gain and more than a 40 minute effort.

Play it again Sam: a second stage win for Sam Bennett, the bunch kept a tight lid on the day’s breakaway to the point where some who’d gone in the move at first sat up as it was futile. The bunch split in the crosswinds with Dylan Groenewegen and Fabio Jakokbsen on the wrong side which left all the other sprinters in with a chance, from Caleb Ewan to local rider Christophe Laporte only these two fell in a tangle a few kilometres out. Groupama-FDJ deployed their train too early – it’s becoming a habit – and Bennett surfed the wheels to pass Arnaud Démare just before the line. Meanwhile in Tirreno-Adriatico Peter Sagan finished second which leaves the Bora-Hansgrohe management with the dilemma of selection and tactics for Milan-Sanremo.

The Route: 181km and over 4,000m of vertical gain, there’s plenty of climbing just to reach the foot of the Col de Turini, today’s summit finish but all the climbs along the way are steady ascents, sometimes some 6-7% but rarely more and they often average 5%, this is a good day for Thomas de Gendt to go clear and get points for the mountains competition, Lilian Calmejane might have the same idea.

The climb to Pelasque sees them quit the main road to climb up side of the valley and add more altitude, a 6km climb at 6% and then a shorter descent and then the valley road to the

The Finish: a turning off the main road and a gentle start until the first hairpin and then some 8% slopes, the intermediate sprint in the village and then a long climb. The defining characteristic today is the length, there are sections at 8-10% but overall this is a long climb that is engineered and steady, a climb for Team Sky to set a tempo like we see in July.

The Contenders: Simon Yates is in good form and he’s well down on GC which means he can attack and Team Sky don’t have to shut him down so he’s got a good chance for the stage win and is Mitchelton-Scott’s best card even if Jack Haig and Esteban Chaves could have a go.

This is Egan Bernal‘s chance for a summit finish stage win and Team Sky have brought several climbers for the two final stages. At the start of the week this climb seemed too much for Michał Kwiatkowski, how could he cope with the repeat attacks from Simon Yates, Astana, Romain Bardet, Nairo Quintana and the rest. Only now they’re all down on GC, he leads and can pace himself up the climb with Sky’s train to intimidate others and if he’s there for the final kilometre the reduced slope could still see him in the mix.

Nairo Quintana (Movistar) is always a pick for a long summit finish but doesn’t seem in peak form. Katusha’s hopes rest with Ilnur Zakarin who has been stealthy so far but that’s just how he won the summit finish at Utelle before. Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale) is stuck, high on GC enough not to get much space from rivals, but not dazzling form to go get the stage but he knows this climb well. Miguel Angel Lopez (Astana) is in the race, a fact worth stating because he’s been discreet so far but this is his terrain.

The breakaway has a chance, Team Sky and Astana might set the pace today but they’ll be wary of tomorrow’s stage too and so a strong move can go clear early. Among those who can cope with the final climb there’s Simon Špilak (Katusha) but he had a poor time trial so unless he’s been resting he’s not a safe pick. Marc Soler has had a lot of bad luck but this gives him space today unless he’s on duty for Quintana. EF Education First’s Dani Martinez has room to attack. Patrick Konrad (Bora-Hansgrohe) can climb well on big ascents but just isn’t a frequent winner. Breakaway specialists like Alessandro de Marchi (CCC), Thomas de Gendt (Lotto-Soudal) and Lilian Calmejane (Direct Energie) can go clear but will they sprint for the mountains points today or save themselves for the finish? Trek-Segafredo’s Giulio Ciccone is a pure climber with a punchy finish too.

Egan Bernal, Simon Yates

Miguel Angel Lopez, Romain Bardet

Kwiatkowski, Ciccone, Quintana, Chaves, Bennett, Martinez

Weather: sunshine and a top temperature of 22°C but cooler at times on the higher sections of the course.

TV: the finish is forecast for 5.00pm Euro time. It should be available on the same channel you watch the Tour de France and/or Eurosport. If not then cyclingfans and steephill.tv have schedules and streams.

Surely George rather than Sam and a fair pick Mr IR.
The climb seems sufficiently long and hard for non-climbers like Kwiatowski to be dopped although the fresh wind predicted could favour a bunch and discourage attacks from the lightweight climbers such as Bardet, Quintana, Yates…

Very interesting that IR has Bernal on 3 x chainrings and Quintana only on x 1, the same as Kwiatkowski.
I thought Quintana rode really well through the windy stages, he was an omni-present feature at the race’s nose. His TT was as expected, only Yates and Bernal’s were excellent, yet he’s found himself over 1” adrift without doing anything wrong!
Team Sky’s tactics today will be telling. The way I’ve read them, Bernal, although riding superbly, is still very much the junior man to Kwiato and Luke Rowe. I think Team Sky will maintain their intra-hierarchy and have Bernal in the service of the Pole. If the road dictates otherwise, then fine.
But Team Sky have their structure and Bernal has not earned his spurs yet.

Quintana; there is no way he’s going to let his countryman Bernal ride off into the distance. In fact, there may very much be a Colombian race-within-a race today, and that could influence today’s result?
I’m having Quintana on 3 x chainrings, if only out of pride and determination.
I wouldn’t like to call the winner today – perhaps he’ll be a Colombian – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kwiatkowski retain the leader’s jersey.
Shoot me down in flames 🔥 later 😀

Think this is all pretty much correct, though Egan Bernal is due to lead for Sky at the Giro so more experience at leading would be helpful. Perhaps he is trying to come to a peak in May rather than now so is not quite in best form whereas MK will be looking at the Ardennes

Ecky, is this the same Quintana dropped multiple times in the Tour of Colombia who only won the final stage because Superman Lopez and Ivan Sosa decided to do track stands on a mountain? I think for several years now he has shown that he has not had it in him to get past the level he achieved 3 or 4 years ago. It’s why he has barely challenged Froome and is now bettered by Dumoulin. His wins now only come because he’s down on GC and so is “allowed” to win. Indeed, that’s exactly what happened in Colombia and in the Tour last year. To give him the same chain rings as Yates is not justifiable and an argument could be made for giving Bernal more than him too.

Wtf cares if Quintana rode TdC as a training race? It’s like TdU and sand races. They are for training, the real season when you need form, is just about to start. Nobody cares if you peak in in January or early February or March.

With all respect Ecky, I think Bernal is looking ready to go big and this a climb where Kwiatowski will surely struggle to follow a proper attack from one of the climbers.And I’m guessing Sky will be “letting the road decide” as they like to say re Froome and Thomas.

I loved Quintana’s win and the passionate support he got in Columbia. But I’ll be suprised, and happy to be proven wrong, if he can do it here.

And I’d like to add that it’s a pleasure to be back enjoying the racing and reading INRG

Sam must be growing in confidence. He’s taken apart most of the top, in form sprinters now. He’s to nice a lad not to garner some success. No disrespect to Kwaito but it would be good to see Egan Bernal just bloody go for it. Is there a chance if any one or more of the climbers attack it will put the race leader’s position in jeopardy? Hashtag GeorgeNotSam