Democrats brag about fundraising for House races in Indiana, but challenges remain

In this Jan. 13, 2016 photo, Trey Hollingsworth, a businessman from Jeffersonville, who successfully sought the Republican nomination for 9th District Congress, talks about his 2016 candidacy in Bloomington, Ind.(Photo: David Snodgress, AP)

WASHINGTON — Democrats eager to argue the momentum is on their side for the midterm elections pointed to the recent fundraising reports of two Indiana challengers as part of their evidence.

In south central Indiana, Democrat Liz Watson outraised GOP Rep. Trey Hollingsworth for the second quarter in a row.

Mel Hall, who is challenging Rep. Jackie Walorski in north central Indiana, raised $492,137 since starting his campaign in October, although about half came from his own pocket.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the political arm of House Democrats — included the candidates in a news release bragging that more than 40 challengers out-raised GOP incumbents at the end of 2017.

“Democratic candidates across the country are out-hustling and out-organizing Republican incumbents,” said DCCC spokesman Tyler Law.

But national political handicappers haven’t put any of Indiana’s nine House districts on their lists of seats most likely to flip in November.

That’s in contrast to past elections that saw big swings between parties. Democrats captured three House seats in Indiana in the 2006 midterm elections. Republicans took two of them back in the 2010 midterms, and captured the third back in 2012.

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Republicans, however, are facing a difficult political climate. A newly elected president’s party typically loses seats in the mid-term elections, and President Trump’s historically low approval ratings leave Republicans reason to be worried. Last year, Democrats shockingly picked up a Senate seat in the Alabama special election, scored big wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races and had better-than-expected performances in other special elections around the country.

House Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to win the majority in the House.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter at the University of Virginia, sees the race for the House as “about a coin flip.” While Democrats should gain seats, Kondick isn’t yet sure they can turn over enough to win control — unless there’s a huge Democratic wave.

“A tsunami might well develop in the fall,” Kondick recently wrote, “but that’s a judgment that cannot be reached with the information we have today.”

Neither the Crystal Ball, nor other top handicappers of congressional races, include any of Indiana’s districts on their list of contests to watch.

That’s in large part because the districts that have flipped in past swing elections have become more heavily weighted to the Republican Party.

President Trump, for example, carried Walorski’s district by 23 points. And Hall, the Democratic challenger who is making his first bid for elected office, has to show he can continue to haul in the bucks. He had $432,482 in the bank at the start of the year compared with Walorski’s $829,311.She raised $260,103 in the final quarter of 2017.

In the 9th Congressional District, Watson reported $276,369 in the bank as of the start of the yearcompared with Hollingsworth’s $297,797. But unlike Hollingsworth, Watson has a competitive primary. Fellow Democrat Dan Canon has raised $310,672, compared to Watson’s $370,982.

In addition, Hollingsworth has personal wealth he can tap, if needed, during the general election. He loaned his 2016 campaign more than $3 million, most of which he has paid back or forgiven. And a super PAC funded by his father spent another $1.5 million of the family’s money on the race.

Trump carried Hollingsworth’s district by 27 points.

But Trump’s job approval rating in Indiana is 44 percent, according to Gallup. His disapproval rating is 51 percent, according to phone interviews Gallup conducted at the end of December through January 20th.

Two Indiana districts — the west central 4th District and the southeastern 6th District — will be sending new representatives to Washington regardless of which party has the momentum in November. That’s because Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer are giving up their seats to run for the Senate. Both districts are heavily Republican and most of the fundraising activity has been on the GOP side.

In Rokita’s 4th District, the top fundraiser is Diego Morales, who served as a senior adviser to former Gov. Mike Pence and now works as a business development officer in the private sector. Morales has raised $413,852.

Former GOP state Rep. Steve Braun, who was Pence’s Workforce Development Department commissioner, has raised $325,435.

Republican State Rep. Jim Baird has raised $206,460, most of it in personal loans to his campaign.