On Media

No, media, Donald Trump isn't done

By DYLAN BYERS

07/20/2015 03:22 PM EDT

Did you read the news this weekend? Donald Trump's candidacy is done. Over. Dead. Kaput.

“DON VOYAGE! Trump is toast after insult," the New York Post announced on Sunday's front page, one day after Trump told Iowa voters that Sen. John McCain wasn't a war hero. The conservative journal Commentary declared the same.

In the more august pages of The New York Times, Nate Cohn declared the event "a turning point," and "a shift that will probably mark the moment when Trump’s candidacy went from boom to bust."

Boom to Bust! Trump, who had rocketed to the top of a crowded Republican field, besting Jeb Bush in the most recent Fox News and USA Today/Suffolk University polls, had just rung his campaign's death knell, the articles suggested.

On Monday, the Times' political team took a more measured tone: "It remains to be seen whether Mr. Trump’s standing in public opinion surveys will suffer from the episode with Mr. McCain," one article stated.

With good reason: Later the same day, Monmouth University released a survey showing that Trump's standing with Iowa voters -- second only to Scott Walker -- remained unchanged: "The poll did not find any significant change in support for Trump in interviews conducted after his comments about John McCain’s military service," Monmouth said.

Public opinion can be slow to change, and it is certainly possible that days of negative headlines could influence voter sentiment heavily. But the rush to declare Trump's candidacy dead -- especially when journalists on the ground were reporting that many attendees "were not nearly as offended" as party officials -- is premature at best.

The next national survey for the Republican field is set to be released early Monday evening. Like the Monmouth poll, it will likely include data from both before and after Trump's remarks about McCain. A strong showing from Trump won't be proof that he's weathered the storm, any more than the media's gut reaction was proof that he wouldn't. But it should serve as a reminder to exercise caution before acting as coroner.

UPDATE (5:17 p.m.): An ABC News/Washington Post poll published at 5 p.m. ET on Monday had Trump leading the Republican field with a whopping 24 percent, far ahead of Scott Walker (13%) and Jeb Bush (12%).

However, the poll was conducted between Thursday and Sunday, and the poll notes that "Trump’s support was conspicuously lower Sunday than in the three previous days." Specifically: "Trump’s support was 28 percent in this survey’s first three nights of polling. While the sample size of registered leaned Republicans on Sunday is quite small, he dropped to the single digits that day."

The Sunday sample size was indeed quite small: Just 82 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, only 65 of whom who reported being registered to vote. So, once again: Caution.