BP Chats

How much, if at all, did last year's struggles dampen Xander Bogaerts' prospects? Still a future role 6 type guy?(Mario66 from Pittsburgh)

Adjusting to MLB pitching is difficult. I do think he is still a top guy, but it didn't piece together this season. Might not next season, but he has the ability. I watched him take an AB against Chris Tillman this season and it was the most impressed I had been all year. Tillman worked two inside FB for a strike and then a foul tip. Then he tried to 12-6 CB on the outside and Xander fouled it off. Tillman wasted 2 FB up and outside and then tried the CB down in the dirt, and Xander kept his hands back after initially cocking them. Next pitch he belted a FB inside off the monster. I watched him grow up in that AB (Tucker Blair)

What does Chris Tillman's season look like next year? Asking because it seems like he overperformed his PECOTA projections this year(Aaron from MD)

The lazy answer is that he'll give half of it back, regress some to the mean, but raise his baseline for expected performance, right? Well, I see an upward trajectory for a pitcher going into his age-27 season, who has consecutive seasons of 200-IP under his belt. He could continue his upward trajectory, though a pitcher who has outplayed his FIP for 3 consecutive seasons will have his share of doubters. The fastball is his main weapon, and Tillman has lost about 1.5 mph over the past couple of seasons while upping his usage of the pitch - with progressively better results - a combination that will further confuse prognosticators. I think that it has more to do with his refinement of pitch command and movement, and if that trend continues, then he will outplay his FIP once again in 2015.

Thanks for the great work you do here, Doug.
What are you seeing when you watch Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman? What does each do well and what could improve?(Matt from Austin)

Gausman has an insane change-up, and he can play off the change-fastball combination given his elite raw velocity, though his breaking stuff lags behind and will likely impede his chances of hitting K-related ceilings. There is great power in Gaus' delivery, and he has the upside for plus stability but is still a bit volatile as he continues to mature physically.

Tillman has an exceptionally tall arm slot, releasing the ball at heights of 6.75 feet or higher. His ultra-high release stems from a combination of physical height (he's 6'3"), a tendency to stay tall in the delivery (high center-of-gravity with minimal flex in the knees), and a spine-tilt that artificially raises his slot. The power grades out as average, and Tillman has room for improvement in the balance department, but downhill plane is not an issue.

Using BrooksBaseball, I noticed Chris Tillman used his cutter a lot more against the Tigers than the Red Sox. His control of the pitch on Sunday was the best its been in his career. In 2013, he only threw it 6% of the time because he didn't know where it was going. If he's able to get the frequency of the pitch above 10%, will he become more than just a solid #3?(Ace from PA)

The cutter adds another weapon with a different velocity range than his other pitches, and it will be interesting to see if he adjusts his usage patterns. He currently uses the pitch almost exclusively vs RHB's, and I think that had as much to do with his DET-BOS split as anything. Detroit had just three batters from the left side in that game - VMart, Tyler Collins, Bryan Holaday - while the Sawx had a more intimidating 5-pack that included Papi, Carp, Nava, Sizemore, and Pierzynski. I like Tillman's upside, and though his mechanics report card is full of average-ish grades, the guy has an incredibly tall release point (avg of 6.75 feet of height in 2013) that gives him the downhill-plane advantage. (Doug Thorburn)

What do you make of it when we see highly touted prospects who still have excellent stuff don't produce the results we expect? Garrett Richards comes to mind. He throws gas,has a plus slider/curve, but can't strike anyone one out. Chris Tillman is another guy good fastball with life, dropping curve ball, and a slider with a ton of movement(NightmareRec0n from Boston)

The gap between the highest level of the minor leagues (Triple-A) and the major leagues is the biggest gap across any professional sport. I think Tillman could still be a good starter, though. (Ronit Shah)

Dynasty points league with a salary cap of $162. My team is currently around $125 and likely to add another $10 through the draft. Before the next round of free agent bidding, I can choose to lock up one of these three: David Ortiz $9/2 yrs, Iwakuma $9/2, or Chris Tillman $5/3. Which do you prioritize? For the other two, I'll have the right to match the highest bid placed on them. If you need more context, please let me know. Thanks!(doog7642 from Blaine, mn)

Hey doog.

Given raw ability/value I'd probably want Papi but given age and probably want Iwakuma. It's a close call between those two but I'd go Iwakuma just based on age and the fact that your salaries are so low. (Mike Gianella)

16 team dynasty league. My current OF (3) is a combo of Leonys Martin, Wil Myers, BJ Upton, Nick Swisher, Mike Morse. Ive got an offer of George Springer for my Michael Wacha. Im up in the air on it as I think my rotation (Verlander, Teheran, Ian Kennedy, Chris Tillman, Jose Quintana and Ubaldo) can handle the loss but Im wondering how you see a deal like that shaking out long term? Springers hit tool worries me long term as I could see him being a .240 hitter which impacts his counting stats production as well. What do you see he and Wacha turning into?(dzemens from Adrian, MI)

I think I would make that deal in a dynasty. Springer's average might never be great, but his power/speed combo in fantasy is enticing and a Raul Mondesi type wouldn't surprise me. I like Wacha a lot, but I see him as more of a 2/3 type than an ace. Springer might not be a top real life hitter but he could be in fantasy because of the speed. I'd make the deal. (Mike Gianella)

Is Felix Dumbrount worth keeping on a 12 team mixed roster? He's pitching today and don't feel confident in starting him.
Any high upside pitchers to target for end of the rotation SP spots?(RC from PDX)

Was that a Freudian slip? He's not really worth owning in a 12 teamer for now. You can find better pitching on the wire. How about someone like Chris Tillman or Ervin Santana? Or Francisco Liriano?? Someone help me. Seriously. (Bret Sayre)

What is ur feeling on Tillman? First start was bad, but a step forward was expected. Wait & see, or don't start again until he shows something.
Lost Weaver, any other low end starters to help out in a deep league.(Donald Loria from Milwaukee)

Like a lot of the BP staff, I was high on Chris Tillman coming into this year. He was limited in Spring Training and then went on the DL due to an abdominal injury. There's probably some rust here. If Tillman's available in your deep league and you need to replace Jered Weaver, he's probably going to be one of your better choices. (Mike Gianella)

In your opinion who may be a few pitchers outside the top 100-150 or so that will possibly take a leap forward or make a name for themselves in 2013 that could be possible steals at the end of some drafts?(Chris from NJ)

Who's a good buy-low MLB regular for SP this season?(Sara from Tacoma)

I'll give you a few to cater to leagues of a variety of sizes.Hisashi Iwakuma is a sleeper I like a great deal. His high groundball percentage will help him in the transition to Safeco's new ballpark dimensions. Brett Anderson was impressive in his brief return to the hill at the end of last year and is currently a draft value at his current draft position in Mock Draft Central mocks. A few ugly starts to begin Ryan Dempster's time with the Rangers seem to have driven down his value. He'll be fine pitching in Boston and remains an undervalued starter. Chris Tillman enjoyed his first taste of success in the majors last year. He's not as good as his sub-3.00 ERA suggests, but some backlash from those looking at the peripherals may make him a value in AL-only in deep mixed leagues. I think he's capable of improving his underlying stats and staving off some of the regression that would otherwise come from him pitching at the same level this year. (Josh Shepardson)

Chris Tillman: 88 mph buzzkill like Hughes, or kid working on his mechanics and will see his velocity return?(Drungo from SoMd)

To paraphrase Joe Morgan, I haven't seen him pitch this season, so I'll reserve judgement. I read that the velo drop was at least partially an intentional measure to increase control and movement, but I'm skeptical. Progressive velo decline is the norm for pitchers, unfortunately, but big velo drops are usually a cause for concern. (Ben Lindbergh)

What's your general approach to pitchers that struggle in their first couple exposures to major league hitters but keep getting it done in the minors? Do you keep running Chris Tillman out there next year until he figures it out?(Aaron from YYZ)

I think you have to approach it on a player by player basis. You need to find out what the stuff is and why it isn't working in the big leagues. Tillman is very frustrating, as his stuff has backed off, but just a little, and not enough to define his struggles. (Kevin Goldstein)

Orioles fan. Nobody in the majors is performing. Nobody in the minors is performing. I know they won't always be this bad, but realistically, when is the earliest they could contend? Last year pundits thought it was 2011/2012, but now that seems ridiculous. Will I have to wait until a salary cap is implemented or Angelos sells the team?(Dan from Maryland)

This has been pretty much a lost year, as just about all of the key youngsters on whom the Orioles' future hinges has taken a step backwards - Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman... In retrospect, I think the team waited too long to pull the plug on Dave Trembley, because the situation has just festered, but keep in mind the Orioles' poor standing also has to do with the fact that the other four teams in the division are especially strong; the O's are 8-25 (.242) against them, which is worse than the 1962 Mets' pace.

In terms of contention, I think a lot depends upon whom they hire as a manager. Buck Showalter might be able to get them playing respectable baseball by sometime next year, but contention will take some front office smarts, and I'm not sure the guy who signed Garrett Atkins need apply. (Jay Jaffe)

We're approaching 40 games into the season, and the shock of the O's dismal start is starting to fade, and now I can't help but feel bitter. Wasn't this the year they were supposed to make it to .500, beginning an upward trend for at least a few years? Can you help me make sense of it all?(tmcghan from Bay Area, CA)

Well, losing Brian Roberts for a couple of months is a major blow, but you're right, there's some disconcerting stuff going on there, such as Adam Jones' chilly start, the odd shipment of Nolan Reimold to Triple-A, and the inexplicable continuing presence of Garret Atkins. Still, Matt Wieters is making progress, as is Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman appears to be coming around at Triple-A. Just remember that a turnaround for an organization with such a back history of losing takes time, and probably a change at the helm -- I'd have bet that Dave Trembley would get the axe before Trey Hillman, and I doubt he'll be around for much longer. (Jay Jaffe)

Any thoughts on the Orioles' Chris Tillman? For such a highly regarded prospect last year with a guaranteed job in the bigs, I find there to be surprisingly little buzz about him.(Aaron from YYZ)

He's a bit overshadowed by Brian Matusz, who seems more big-league ready at the moment and who as a lefty has skills that are a bit more rare. Tillman's 2.1 HR/9 last year suggests he's got some growing pains still ahead of him, but as a long-term play, there's a lot to like. (Jay Jaffe)

Is it just me or is Chris Tillman or the Orioles something of a forgotten man the young pitcher discussions this year?(Aaron from YYZ)

"The Forgotten Man" struck me as superficial, but Chris Tillman's future does not. I think he'll be a solid middle of the rotation guy. I don't think his ceiling is quite what Matusz' is, but it's very nice for the Orioles to have that young talent. As for right now, he's gonna struggle a little bit. (Tommy Bennett)

I read today that the Orioles were thinking of putting Chris Tillman in AAA to start the year. Does this make sense? Thanks for your reply.(Paul from San Francisco)

I think that's your basic February pre-camp motivational cloud talk of the nobody's-guaranteed-nuthin' variety. That said, Tillman gave up 2.1 HR/9 in his trial last year, and he's got to seriously improve that to survive in the majors. The Orioles aren't winning anything this year, so I don't see the harm in making sure he irons that out in Triple-A rather than burning more service time. (Jay Jaffe)

BP Roundtables

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

Chris Tillman has thrown 11,795 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and the MLB Postseason. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Curve (76mph), Change (84mph) and Cutter (86mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker (91mph).