Monthly Market Report

November 2017

The QBE Australian Housing Outlook report is one of the country’s most anticipated forecasters of property market movements. This is the 16th year QBE LMI has partnered with BIS Oxford Economics to present the 2017–2020 report, which includes state and territory analysis and forecasts of house and unit prices for the next three years.

If we look at capital cities from the priciest to the most affordable, the report suggests that Sydney’s current median house price of $1,177,769 will decline by 0.2 percent by 2020 while its apartments will decline by 3.8 percent from the current median of $790,063.

Conversely, it also suggests that Melbourne’s median house price will gain ground on Sydney’s in the coming years, rising 10.2 percent on the current figure of $852,724. However, Melbourne’s median apartment price is tipped to drop 4.8 percent on the current median price of $561,709.

Brisbane houses are also slated for growth, with median prices anticipated to rise 7.1 percent on the current figure of $550,840. However Brisbane apartments are likely to see the opposite effect, falling by 7.2 percent from the current median of $414,812.

Perth, which has seen a post-mining boom slump recently, is expected to see a minor increase in its median house price by 2020, which is expected to rise 2.8 percent on the current figure of $520, 519. Perth apartments should remain pretty level, with a nominal median price decrease of 0.6 percent on the current figure of $402,247.

Adelaide’s median house price is tipped to rise 6.9 percent on its current price of $477,206, with its apartments set to increase by 3.2 percent from $360,434. Hobart looks poised for solid median house price growth of 10.8 percent on the current figure of $424,264 with apartments set to increase 8.7 percent on $331,317.

However, it’s Canberra houses that are touted as being your best investment bet according to the report, which anticipates a median price increase of 16.3 percent by 2020 on the current figure of $645,000. This is in sharp comparison to Canberra apartments which are only tipped to increase by 2.4 percent from $425,000. Finally, Darwin’s growth phase appears to be over, with median house prices tipped to decrease 0.9 percent from $540,000 and median apartment prices expected to drop 3.2 percent from $470,000.

In New Zealand property news, new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced a dramatic plan to tackle soaring real estate prices, with her deputy Winston Peters claiming the country is ‘no longer for sale’. The government plans to introduce a ban on foreign buyers purchasing existing properties, much like Australia.

“We have agreed on banning the purchase of existing homes by foreign buyers,” Ardern said, specifying that the new rules only applied to nonresidents. “(We) also have plans around farmland and other critical infrastructure.”

Foreign ownership and a housing shortage in New Zealand’s larger cities were prominent issues in the lead-up to the September 23 election, which brought an end to nine years of rule by the conservative National Party.