Stile: Christie ad hits on touchy subject of property taxes

Governor Christie’s first ad for his reelection campaign makes the case that he’s winning the war against New Jersey’s property taxes, which are among the nation’s highest.

“Taxes Cut. Spending Cut. Government made smaller and smarter. A real property tax cap,” the narrator intones as the headline, “Governor’s Plan Offers Hope on Property Taxes” drifts by along a sunny sequence of images.

The “Jersey Proud” ad — a sequel to the “Jersey Comeback” slogan Christie ditched a year ago — is careful not to go overboard and claim that he’s actually conquered the chronic and costly property tax menace.

That’s because there’s a good chance that voters might not believe him.

Despite all the energy Christie has devoted to the issue, homeowners are still paying higher property taxes than they did 3½ years ago. And they are receiving less help from Trenton to offset those increases.

The result is that the average New Jersey homeowner’s net property tax burden rose nearly 19 percent since Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine left office, according to an analysis of figures released this week by the state Department of Community Affairs. By comparison, net property taxes rose only 11 percent in Corzine’s first three years in office.

The new numbers pose a new risk for Christie. He is building his campaign around the theme of tough, strong leadership. The pitch to voters is that he’s the governor who guided New Jersey through the trauma of Superstorm Sandy, who restored New Jersey’s finances and reputation and who finally took on the gritty, politically risky work of tackling rising property taxes.

The data suggest that Christie has made some headway on property taxes, but it might not be enough for voters to notice or feel that things have changed significantly.

The figures also offer a counter-narrative to the one Christie trumpets at his town-hall-style events and is certain to recast as a constant talking point on the campaign trail. He was the governor who bravely made the “tough choices” to tame property taxes instead of papering over the problem by sending “gimmicky” rebate checks to voters around election season.

Under his watch, towns officials now must manage their costs under the more stringent cap on annual property tax increases. Public employees are now shouldering more of the costs of their health and pension benefits. And a new law gives town officials more leverage in contract disputes with police and firefighter unions. These steps, the product of principled compromise with Democrats in the Legislature, have dramatically lowered the rate of increase, Christie argues.

The average New Jersey property tax bill was $7,281 in 2009, representing a 13 percent increase during Corzine’s four-year term. The average bill last year climbed to $7,885, representing a more modest 8.3 percent increase since Christie took office. Christie also notes that that taxes climbed by only 1.6 percent from 2011 to 2012, the lowest annual bump in 24 years.

“The fact is, that people know that the only way to get property taxes to go down is to cut down on expenses,” Christie said in Manville last week.

But voters have also come to know that they are getting less aid from Trenton to help cover those annual property tax hikes.

Confronted by a $2.2 billion budget gap and a state still reeling from the recession when he took office in 2010, Christie slashed funding for the state’s Homestead property tax relief program. The $1,073 check from Trenton has been reduced to a $474 credit listed on last year’s property tax bills.

Those cuts had consequences. Without the extra cash to offset the annual hikes, average homeowners effectively paid $1,200 more in property taxes last year than they paid in 2009, state records show.

Sen. Barbara Buono, the likely Democratic nominee for governor, seized on the numbers as proof that Christie’s policies have harmed New Jersey’s middle-class voters.

“The report has now confirmed what millions of New Jerseyans already know — the governor has an abysmal record on reducing the property tax burden for working- and middle-class families,” Buono said in a statement.

It’s a potent line of attack for Buono, who trails Christie by more than 30 points in the polls, trails Christie in fundraising and remains largely unknown to voters. A Monmouth University poll last month found the public divided over Christie’s approach to property taxes, with 44 percent supporting him, and 45 percent opposing.

Patrick Murray, the political analyst who conducted the poll, said the issue could pose a genuine threat to Christie’s goal of scoring the kind of commanding victory in November that would catapult him to the front ranks of the 2016 presidential contest.

“There is ample opportunity to make inroads on the governor’s popularity,” Murray said. “People give him credit for cutting spending, for improving the quality of government, but property taxes has been a thorn in his side.”

But it’s questionable whether Buono will be able to make a sustained attack. Christie is pushing a plan that will give households earning up to $400,000 a credit on their property taxes. It would be phased in over four years.

Christie wants it to deflect Buono’s attacks, and Democratic leaders might want it to deflect attacks from Christie. In his budget address in February, Christie warned that he would target Democrats if they block the plan and “deny New Jerseyans the tax cut they so desperately need and deserve.”

With all 120 seats of the Legislature on the ballot with Christie this fall, some Democrats fear that Republicans could make significant gains — possibly taking control of the Senate — with the popular Christie at the top of the ballot.

It might make strategic sense to cut a deal with Christie, even if it might make it harder for Buono to make her case.

“It would hurt her a lot,” Murray said. “It would give him the one win that has eluded him so far.”