Climate change and conflict: a controversy and a call to action

What did increased domestic violence in India and Australia, a spike in assaults and murders in the US, ethnic violence in Europe and land invasions in Brazil have in common?

According to new research, published last month, climate variations played a role in each of these incidences of violence. A look at 60 previous studies from around the world with data spanning hundreds of years, led researchers from Princeton, Berkeley and Cambridge to the conclusion that past climatic events have had a significant influence on human conflict.

They do not propose that climate was the only, or even the main driving force of conflict, but that climate variations do have a substantial effect on the occurrence of violence, both at the domestic, inter and intra state level.

Based on the behavior of human societies in the past, and assuming that future populations would respond similarly to past populations, the researchers concluded that climate change had the potential to substantially increase conflict around the world.

This is not the first research looking at the link between climate change and conflict, but this research used statistical methods to look at past cases and examine the causal relationship. The researchers also tried to enable future projections; finding that one standard deviation towards hotter conditions causes the likelihood of personal violence to rise by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14%.

The researchers found that the relationship between climate change to increased violence is a strong one, but they also suggest that further research is needed to determine how these changes manifest themselves into violence.

A 'threat multiplier'

This research follows previous statements by the UN in 2009 that climate change was a "threat multiplier" that exacerbates existing threats, such as persistent poverty, weak institutions, mistrust between communities and other fault lines.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also said in 2011 that climate change "not only exacerbates threats to international peace and security, it is a threat to international peace and security".

This issue of climate change (as a cause) and conflict (as an effect) has attracted a lot of attention and critique in recent years, but I believe it is still impossible to determine what exact role (if any) climate change plays in conflicts. Research into this topic is still controversial.

Conflicts are the result of a complex interaction between political, social and economic factors and though environmental factors may play a role in this interaction, generally they are not considered to be a direct or primary driver of conflict.

Nevertheless, by increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events, affecting sea levels and water availability – it seems obvious to me that climate change can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, and that that trend will increase in coming years.

In Egypt, for example, food prices had increased due to a slump in imports sparked by crop failures in exporting countries. These droughts, attributed by some researchers to climate change among other factors, put market pressure on international wheat prices impacting countries such as Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer.

Across in Syria, a decade of droughts also lead to a dramatic decrease in crops and damaged the livelihoods of millions of people, prompting hundreds of thousands of villagers to abandon rural areas and move to the cities.

It is impossible, usually, to link one extreme weather event such as a drought to climate change. Nevertheless, scientists agree that climate change will usher in an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, including droughts, floods and super storms. The potential for a food crisis has also increasingly sparked headlines around the world.

Research into the potential role climate change may play in conflict will no doubt continue, but even while this research remains controversial it is wise to – out of precaution – act on the possibility that climate change will indeed acerbate conflict and violence in a significant way.

Concern for peace, therefore, is one more reason for decisive action to save our climate, for advancing an energy revolution, for saving the Amazon and fighting to #SavetheArctic.

Jen Maman is Greenpeace International´s Peace Advisor and is based in Istanbul.

I would like to attack the United States...a symbolic (non-violent) declaration of war to a nation of ene...

Carefull Andrew, a duplicate...

I would like to attack the United States...a symbolic (non-violent) declaration of war to a nation of energy-junkies.

I would like to send Rainbow Warrior III to visit the Statue of Liberty, Esperanza to the Golden Gate Bridge and Arctic Sunrise to lay siege on New Orlean like German submarines did during WorldWar II.

Simultanously I would like to shut down operation on some major bordercrossings and airports across the states...

Come on guys, you demonstrated you can hang some nice banners when Obama visited Israel...

Greenpeace is calling for action in 2013 - when not meeting Richard Branson...you guys make me cry.

Tears Transforming, live from the Arctic asap...instead of flying in children from all over the world - powered by fossil fuel.