Monday, October 31, 2011

That seemed to be the subtext of a Monday statement from Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt, blasting one of the top GOP presidential candidates – but not the one currently under fire for alleged sexual harassment.

Today Obama spokesman wasted no time going after Romney for his consistent criticism of President Obama and his responsibility for much of America's economic woes.

“It is deeply ironic that Mitt Romney, who is running on the No We Can’t platform, would launch this false attack,” LaBolt said, ticking off a list of attacks on Romney’s economic policies. “While the President is fighting for an economy that’s built to last where we out educate and out innovate the rest of the world, Mitt Romney has been busy telling Americans what he believes our nation can’t do.”

This attack on Romney is nothing new and as the article points out that Democrats are taking a pass on the latest Cain story.

Democrats have never viewed Cain as a credible Republican presidential nominee, but the party’s silence Monday but an especially fine point on it – and also highlighted the extent to which the Obama camp is already treating Romney like a general election candidate.

I know its only a small snapshot when it comes to when it comes to fundraising, however I found this article interesting nonetheless:

Even though Republican presidential contender Herman Cain is overtaking Mitt Romney in some national polls, the “Cain Train” campaign has received only $500 in donations to date from the 33480 ZIP code as compared to Romney, who is leading all candidates here with $158,000.

President Barack Obama’s $33,175 in total donations from Palm Beach is the fifth largest behind Romney, Newt Gingrich ($39,258), Jon Huntsman ($38,500) and Rick Perry ($35,000).

“I’m not surprised Gov. Romney is doing so well in Palm Beach,” said Marie Hope Davis, president of the Palm Beach Republican Club. “When he was a candidate in the last election, he had a ground team ready to go and there were a lot of Palm Beachers involved at that time.”

[...]

Similar to the Palm Beach trend, campaign donations throughout Florida show 71.6 percent going to Republicans and 28.4 percent to Democratic candidates, with Romney being the top fundraiser statewide. Donations to presidential candidates by Floridians total $6,581,859, according to statistics compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

The recent DesMoines Register poll seems to have left many a Romney supporter giddy, considering that he's within the margin of error of tea party favorite, Herman Cain. I don't mean to throw a wet blanket on their enthusiasm, but respondents that definitely intend to participate in the caucus aren't big fans of Mitt.

Another big warning flag for Romney: Those who definitely intend to caucus don’t like him much. This group is 38 percent of those polled, but Romney is the first choice of just 10 percent of them. Cain is the strongest among definite attenders with 27 percent.

And likely caucusgoers don’t see him as their backup: 11 percent designated him their second choice, behind Cain and Gingrich.

At the end of a 26-minute interview with Texas Gov. Rick Perry in Austin, Wallace noted that he has now interviewed all the major candidates as part of his 2012 one-on-one series, except the acknowledged frontrunner.

“He has not appeared on this program or any Sunday talk show since March of 2010,” Wallace said. “We invited Gov. Romney again this week, but his campaign says he’s still not ready to sit down for an interview.”

Romney has mostly avoided giving interviews to any print or TV reporters who would ask tough questions this year.

Now, I know what my fellow Rombots are going to say: "Fox News is completely, 100%, in the tank for Perry and Cain." Agreed. Fox News long ago shredded any pretense at attempting to conduct actual journalism. It is now the public relations firm of the Tea Party. It makes no effort at informing its audience of the actual issues that Americans are facing. It is the natural consequence of a media-driven politics that has taken over America. Fox News is market-driven "news" and Romney fans are not it's market.

That being said, one of the things that I have always admired about Romney is that he is not afraid to go into enemy territory. And yes, Fox News, is literally and publicly opposed to him. So what? That is part of running for President. Mitt needs to put his big boy pants on and face down Wallace. No, he won't get a fair shake, but he doesn't need to turn into a Sarah Palin without the whining.

Regardless, Wallace is somewhat of a well of water in a barren land. Fox does have some talent on board. Flashes of actual journalism can be seen at times from Wallace and Shephard Smith. It is one thing to skip the clowns on Fox and Friends in the morning, but Romney needs some of what Wallace and Smith have: non-Romney voters.

Come on, Mitt. You are better than this.

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Let me start off by stating that I've never been a Rick Perry fan. Yet after viewing his performances in New Hampshire over the weekend, I'm beginning to feel sorry for him. His demeanor seemed to shift from one event to another. In the interview he did with the New Hampshire Union Leader, he seemed almost unnaturally mellowed out. It reminded me of someone fighting to stay awake:

PRESS desired FEED BUTTON:

In the following speech he gave Friday night in Manchester, NH at a Cornerstone event, his demeanor seemed almost the total opposite. WOUND UP and overly animated to the point of someone on the verge of a giddy attack. The following is a collection of snippets from that speech:

I'm not one for taking things out of context so here is the complete speech. I find it almost as painful to watch as the snippets above:

I believe Perry entered this contest with the idea that it would be a cake walk. His poor performances in the debates, speeches, interviews, and what seems to be a lack of knowledge and depth on many issues are perhaps catching up to him.

I hope I'm wrong on this because although I don't want him to win the nomination because I believe he's not the best candidate we have, I still would not want to watch someone have an extended public meltdown.

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A while ago, I went through Cain's 9-9-9 plan and found that while it was an improvement, it was not nearly as good as the FairTax.

Today, it's time to analyse Rick Perry and his optional flat tax (you get to choose between a 20 % flat tax or the current system). If you thought I was harsch on Cain, oh you aint seen nothing yet. Here is a list of six reasons why Perry's plan is pathetic, wrong, and probably the worst thing a Republican has come up with since someone thought it would be a good idea to break into Watergate.

Let's start:

1) It is not revenue-neutral. While with Cain's plan, I'm simply not sure if it's revenue-neutral, with Perry's plan I can tell you straight away that it's not. It means extreme tax cuts for the rich, while no cuts whatsoever for the middle class (more about this later). There is no way the US can recover all the money that this reform will cost, in particular considering that it is the rich who pay most of the taxes (the top 1 % pay about 8 % of all taxes). While cutting taxes for the rich can make sense because it encourages education, that shouldn't be the focus in the midst of an economic crisis. If we want to increase private investment, we should focus on getting rid of the horrible capital gains tax, not cutting income taxes in general for those with high incomes - they might not even invest the extra money in the first place, a lot of them would much rather take another trip to Paris. In order words; it's inefficient and expensive.

2) It does nothing to help the middle class. You have to be pretty well off to profit from Perry's plan. I ran the numbers through a simple tax calculator, and I found that you, if you're single, have to make roughly $85,000 or more to profit from Perry's plan. How many people make that much? About 20 %. Not all of them single, of course, I'm just trying to keep things simple. It makes perfect sense: A flat tax is good for those who would otherwise, in a progessive system, pay a high tax. Those who would otherwise not pay any, or very little are worse off. With this plan, most Americans would have to stick to the old, complicated system, and Perry seems to have no ideas as for how to help them (except for a few, well-used catchphrases - like all politicians have). The fact that the cornerstone of his economic plan has to do with helping the rich shows exactly how out of touch he is.

The thought of a Presidential candidate having the nerve to feel that he is above having to attend debates and presenting his case to the American people as to why he should be President has hit a nerve with me and is beginning to hit a nerve with a few others.

“I thought Texas governors were supposed to be tough. How can Gov. Perry expect anyone to trust he can take on Obama and the Democratic machine, when he thinks debating his fellow Republicans is too tough?" said Santorum spokesman Hogan Gidley. "This just shows he doesn't have what it takes to lead the American people in taking back our Country in 2012.”

Later, at an education forum sponsored by the College Board and News Corp. in Manhattan, Santorum himself went further, saying, "Hiding from the public by skipping debates and skipping forums is trying to hide the ball."

"I would never skip a debate," he said, adding that Perry was trying to "hide behind $15 million" of "slick ads."

If Perry doesn’t participate in a series of debates, voters just starting to tune into the race will be greeted with scads of media coverage about whether he is running away from former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Not exactly a good introduction to Perry.

Perry and his campaign know that the debates allows not only voters the opportunity to see what the candidate knows, but also how he REACTS UNDER PRESSURE.

Unfortunately for Perry, it's a little late for that.

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Herman Cain and Mitt Romney top The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll, with the retired pizza executive edging the former Massachusetts governor 23 percent to 22 percent in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Cain has surged 13 percentage points since the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in late June. His rise has come despite spending little time in Iowa recently, campaigning here just once since the Aug. 13 Iowa straw poll, where he placed fifth.

Likewise, Romney has campaigned in Iowa just three times this year, but he retains a core network of supporters from his near-constant presence in the state during his first presidential bid four years ago.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign stop in Pittsburgh on Thursday marked the third visit by a presidential candidate in three weeks.

[...]

Romney spoke at Consol Energy Center in Uptown for two closed-door fundraisers. His visit follows a pitch by President Obama for his doomed jobs bill at a South Side union hall on Oct. 11, and Republican Texas Gov. Rick Perry's energy speech at the U.S. Steel Irvin Works in West Mifflin three days later.

Texas Governor Rick Perry made a media splash Tuesday when he unveiled his flat tax proposal, but his numbers against President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup are little changed from last week.

Head-To-Head:

Barack Obama 45%
Rick Perry 38% (-7)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 26-27, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.

I ask because a majority of Republicans rejected a Palin presidential run primarily because she was seen as unqualified, and lacking in knowledge of the issues. Now we have Cain in the top tier, who seems to be much less knowledgeable on the issues than Palin is, and much more prone to incoherence and gaffes. And even though he has enjoyed success in the private sector, he has never held any public office.

On the other hand, Sarah Palin is a former governor, a former VP candidate, and spent the last three years learning more about the issues. As a hardcore Palin detractor, I must give her some credit for this. I believe she was seriously considering running, and was engaged in the process of preparing herself--something Cain clearly seems uninterested in.

How long has Cain been in this race, and how long did he contemplate a run? It's clear he did not expect to get this far, because he did little to no preparation. The abortion issue alone is a mess of confusion, and the more he is asked about it, the worse he sounds. (Can someone in the campaign please give this man an answer to memorize?)

Now we Republicans find ourselves with a personally popular candidate in the top tier who does not possess adequate knowledge of the issues, or more importantly, the desire or motivation to be a serious candidate.

I find Cain very likable, and his position is beneficial to Romney. But I think his days in the top spot are numbered because he cannot maintain support in the face of such obvious incompetence. The man doesn't even seem to think he needs to be ready.

Seeing Cain's rise, I wonder if Palin regrets her decision.

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Barack Obama won a blow out victory in Wisconsin in 2008, but it's looking more and more like it will revert to its swing state status of 2000 and 2004 next year.

[...]

Mitt Romney has pulled to within 3 points of Obama at 46-43. That's the closest Romney's polled to Obama in PPP's polling of the state all year. In the first half of 2011 Obama had a double digit advantage over Romney, leading by 12 on a May poll and 10 on a March poll.

Head-To-Head:

Barack Obama 46%
Mitt Romney 43% (-3)

Barack Obama 49%
Herman Cain 42% (-7)

Barack Obama 48%
Ron Paul 39% (-9)

Barack Obama 51%
Michele Bachmann 40% (-11)

Barack Obama 50%
Rick Perry 39% (-11)

Barack Obama 52%
Newt Gingrich 38% (-14)

A survey of 1,170 Wisconsin voters was conducted October 20-23, 2011. The MOE is +/- 2.9%.

Rick Perry might want to reconsider his plans for going negative so on GOP Primary rival Mitt Romney that our “televisions will bleed.” Seems an Ohio focus group has decidedly negative views of the tongue tied Texan, with 66% opting for the word “bully” to describe Perry.

According to the Washington Post’s story on pollster Peter Hart’s focus groups on the 2012 GOP candidates for the Annenberg Project:

When the discussion turned to other attributes, he was described as the kind of neighbor others would not want to mess with, or someone who would build a fence around his property, or someone who would be in everybody else’s business.

“He wouldn’t be on the casserole committee,” said Sydney Mathis, a Democrat.

“Annoying,” said Lisa Cedrone, an independent voter who supported Obama in 2008 and is undecided today.

John Dickerson at Slate thinks Perry will refrain from the political knife fighting in order to rehab his image and salvage his campaign, which has crashed in one of the more spectacular political downfalls in recent memory.

It’s often said you only get one chance to make a first impression and Perry flubbed his big time. After four pathetic debate appearances, Perry, who strutted into the GOP Presidential race, is now considering avoiding further debates. While this oily maneuver might impress a Perry apologist like RushLimbaugh, it will not play well with the rank and file. It will be seen as political cowardice. Since most bullies are cowards at heart, it will come as no surprise.

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Friday, October 28, 2011

“Relative to foreign policy, I don’t need to know the details of every one of the issues we face.

"We’ve got plenty of experts who can fill in the details,” Cain said at dinner held by the Nueces County Republican Women.

Doesn't that sentiment make you feel all warm and fuzzy when thinking about issues that could arise concerning the likes of Iran, China, and Putin in charge of Russia?

His attitude is so ridiculous that it lead to an inside joke between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:

According to the Associated Press, the two leaders began their meeting in the Afghanistan capital with a discussion about how the GOP presidential candidate recently responded to how he would handle “gotcha questions” from the media on foreign policy.

“When they ask me who’s the president of Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan, I’m gonna say, ‘You know, I don’t know, do you know?’” Cain responded, raising eyebrows about his lack of foreign policy credentials.

Karzai told Clinton that Cain was talking about “all the ‘stans,” to which Clinton laughed and waved her hands, saying, “All the ‘stans places,” the wire said.

I must say, I'm shocked that this is coming from George Will. He is the epitome of an establishment voice in the Republican Party. Does he finally get it?

Politico has a sneak peak of his Sunday column.

Romney, supposedly the Republican most electable next November, is a recidivist reviser of his principles who is not only becoming less electable, he might damage GOP chances of capturing the Senate: Republican successes down the ticket will depend on the energies of the tea party and other conservatives, who will be deflated by a nominee whose blurry profile in caution communicates only calculated trimming. Republicans may have found their Michael Dukakis, a technocratic Massachusetts governor who takes his bearings from ‘data’ ... Has conservatism come so far, surmounting so many obstacles, to settle, at a moment of economic crisis, for THIS?

For once, I believe Rick Perry. Take a look at his first advertisement in Iowa.

Rick Perry is promising 2.5 million jobs during his Presidency. That's a big number, right? Steven Benen points out a small detail.

Let’s consider the jobs data. Over the last year and a half, as the economic recovery has slowly progressed, the economy has added 2.56 million private-sector jobs. Over that same period — March 2010 through September 2011 — the overall economy has added 2.1 million jobs, and should reach the 2.5 million mark by early next year.

Now, no one is saying these totals are good enough. Indeed, given the job losses in 2008 and 2009, generated by a Great Recession that began in 2007, they’re not even close to what’s needed. The fact that the private sector has added 2.56 million jobs over the last year and a half hasn’t been nearly sufficient to bring the unemployment rate down in a hurry or end the jobs crisis.

But for the purposes of evaluating the Texas governor’s first campaign ad, the bottom line is nevertheless interesting — Rick Perry believes he’ll able to create the same number of jobs in four years that Barack Obama has created in a year and a half.

Yes, folks, Rick Perry is right. A vote for the Texas governor is a vote for decreasing recession-level, economic growth.

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You know, when you think you've read just about everything, something more ridiculous comes along that proves you wrong:

The Washington, D.C. Office of Human Rights confirmed that it is investigating allegations that Catholic University violated the human rights of Muslim students by not allowing them to form a Muslim student group and by not providing them rooms without Christian symbols for their daily prayers.

The investigation alleges that Muslim students “must perform their prayers surrounded by symbols of Catholicism – e.g., a wooden crucifix, paintings of Jesus, pictures of priests and theologians which many Muslim students find inappropriate.”

A spokesperson for the Office of Human Rights told Fox News they had received a 60-page complaint against the private university. The investigation, they said, could take as long a six months. (emphasis mine)

Thursday, October 27, 2011

So Greece finally had its debt reduced substantially, bondholders will have to take a 30 % haircut, in addition to the 20 % they’ve already taken. This will save Greece 100 billion euro, or about 140 billion dollars.

Problem solved? No. The fact is, there is no happy ending in sight, no matter how things turn out. There are scenarios that involve more pain now, less pain later, and less pain now and more later. As is usual when governments step in to solve economic crises, they’ve already planted the seeds to the next one.

To make things easy, here are a list of problems in the eurozone right now that might ruin the party that is right now going on in the stock markets:

1) The main problem is moral hazard. How are investors ever going to trust Greece, or any other of the troubled countries in the eurozone again? The default (because that is essentially what it is) will remain as a black mark on Greece’s record for a long time. This is a country that doesn’t even manage to collect taxes from its citizens, why would you ever invest there? Even if the risk of default became lower, why would you invest there when there are so many other countries to pick from? What “competitive advantage” does Greece have? Essentially, the problem comes down to greek citizens being irresponsible. What in this deal is going to teach them to be more responsible?

2) The Eurozone has shown that it is not an optimal currency area and that it’s impossible to set an interest rate that suits everyone. Individual countries may adjust this through fiscal policy, but that’s hard to do in practice. This is a structural issue that is not going away. Now that investors know this, why would they invest in an area that is so obviously going to end up in a crisis again within a decade or so? It may not be Greece the next time, but there will always be someone.

Mitt Romney is investing more than his Republican presidential rivals in online ad and digital media spending.

With Barack Obama’s re-election campaign and the Democratic National Committee hitting the $5 million mark in online ad related spending alone, Romney has spent more than twice as much as Michele Bachmann on online advertising and other digital efforts, and several hundred thousand dollars more than Herman Cain.

Through September, Romney spent more than $895,000 with digital consulting firm Targeted Victory, much of which most likely went towards online advertising such as display, search, and video ads.

Look below to see a break down of how various Republican 2012 candidates are spending for online advertising:

Today, Rush Limbaugh announced that Obama wants to run against Romney more than the other candidates. This, of course, is obviously the exact opposite of truth. As reported by Politico, the Obama team is increasingly worried about Romney and is secretly rooting for Perry to spend his $15 million on ripping Romney to shreds. Either way, Obama will get a bruised Romney or a normal Perry. Win, win if you are Dem.

Yet, Rush thinks that it is all a hoax and that Obama is more scared of Perry. It really is hard for me to even think like the average Rush fan. How can one be so brainwashed that you really do think that Perry would be a more formidable force against Obama? Yet, that is what Rush does to you.

A couple of weeks ago, Rush declared that Mitt Romney is not conservative. This, almost four years after he declared Romney to be a three-stool conservative. Has Romney become less conservative since then? No, but Rush has small minds to mold. Furthermore, the grassroots has gone buck wild and he can't risk his entertainment enterprise over the pitchforked anger of his Tea Party audience.

The Republican Party has fallen a long ways from the days of William Buckley. It no longer concerns itself with the details of governing. It is strictly a reality show. That is why Rick Perry and Herman Cain can offer tax plans that glaze over basic math. That is why right-wing bloggers can praise Rick Perry's energy plan despite the fact that it reveals that Rick Perry knows nothing about energy. And that is why Rick Perry has given up on the idea of debating before a live audience and instead will completely give himself to paid advertisements and winks and nods affirming birtherism and religious bigotry. Sorry Mr. Buckley, but this is now the Grand Ole Party.

And this is why Mitt Romney is such a threat to Rush Limbaugh. The former governor of Massachusetts represents a small possibility that a Republican who is interested in governing will reside in the White House. Limbaugh's entertainment complex will take a hit. Rushbo will not have Obama to use a fear-creating prop.

So, my dear Rombots. Repeat after me: Rush Limbaugh is not on your side. He wants you to lose.

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Rick Perry's campaign is signaling the Texas governor could skip some upcoming presidential debates so he can focus on getting to know voters in key early states.

"The candidates need to spend time in Iowa doing those town halls and spending a lot more time with the voters, who oftentimes have the best questions and press the candidates the hardest," Perry communications director Ray Sullivan told CNN in an interview Wednesday.

Earlier in the day, Perry spokesman Mark Miner told Politico that the candidate is committed to participating in the next debate, set for Nov. 9 in Michigan, but that future forums for him are up in the air.

Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney rallied Republican volunteers in Fairfax County Wednesday, stressing the importance of Virginia’s legislative elections in his first public appearance in the swing state this year.

“I’m just here to do my very best to encourage the people in Fairfax County to send a message across this commonwealth and across the nation — that is we want our country back,’’ Romney said.
Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

More than a hundred supporters and reporters gathered outside the tiny headquarters of the Fairfax County Republican Committee to catch a glimpse of Romney.

In the final weeks before the Nov. 8 election, several high-profile politicians are stopping in the state to raise money and energize volunteers as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of the Virginia Senate.

Romney was joined by Gov. Robert F. McDonnell, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, head of Romney’s campaign in Virginia, and several local and state candidates.

The Democrats put out an anti-Romney ad using a snippet from an interview Romney gave in Nevada .

In my opinion, Romney was spot-on when he said that the government needs to stay out of the foreclosure business by not interfering and artificially trying to halt the inevitable. Let the free market run it's course and the market itself will correct and solve the housing woes. Government interference in the long run and in simple terms, is only putting it's finger in the dike.

Here is the Democrat's ad:

Here is the WSJ explaining in it's SNARKY WAY, why Romney is correct::

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Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to run neck-and-neck with President Barack Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. The two men have been within two points of each other in surveys since mid-September.

Head-To-Head:

Mitt Romney 44% [+2] Barack Obama 42%

The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 24-25, 2011. The MOE is +/- 3%.

This makes Romney THE ONLY candidate beating Obama in the recent Rasmussen polls:

According to my calculations, Mr. Cain still leads in the national popular vote, but his lead over Mr. Romney is a little smaller than last, 28.8% to 26.6% . Mr. Perry is down to 11.3%. Dr. Paul is at 9.5%. Mr. Gingrich slips to 8.8% and everybody else is down below 5%.

A few years ago Romneyites used to say that they did not care that they were losing most national polls because they were winning most of the states where state polling was being done. This week the shoe is somewhat on the other foot, Mr. Romney is keeping pace with Mr. Cain with the national polls while Mr. Cain is winning all the states, but one (where polling is being done.) In fact we had state poll come out this week in Ohio, Illinois and Texas among others. 13% of all elected delegates come from these three states alone. None of these states are WTA, but these state polls along with and other state polls have helped change the structure of the race.

While nobody can predict how many people will vote in each region let alone state in the country, I will now disclose that I have tweaked my model this week to try to weight each state a little more accurately. After changing my formula, it appeared to me that Mr. Romney, Mr. Gingich, Mr. Santorum and Mrs. Bachmann were all doing a little better at the state level than there actual national number were doing under my new weighted averages. Mr. Perry, Dr. Paul and Mr. Johnson were being short changed under my old system. My changes in weight did not statistically affect the national popular vote of Mr. Cain and Mr. Huntsman. So I than went back to tweak state numbers to bring national totals more in line given my new weighted average system. Since my tweaks were relatively minor, no state changed hands as a direct result of my new model, but the delegate count is affected. Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich lost a few delegates because of these tweaks while Mr. Perry, and Dr. Paul gained some. While the tweaks in my model did not directly benefit Mr. Cain structurally, he too gained a few delegates due to the tweaks simply because Mr. Romney lost some.