Archive for the ‘yusmeiro petit’ tag

Are the Nats really in the mix for Japanese superstar Ohtani? Photo via cbssports.com

As many others have noticed … there isn’t a heck of a lot going on right now in the “hot stove” season. But given where we are in the regular off-season calendar, lets bang out a couple of topics.

First: the Non-tender deadline.

For the first time in an awful long time, the Nats have no real obvious non-tender candidates on their roster. They entered the off-season with just four arbitration-eligible players and they are all set to be crucial pieces for 2018:

Bryce Harper technically would have been arb-eligible but signed away his 4th year for north of $21M.

Anthony Rendon comes off easily his finest season as a pro (his numbers across the board eclipse his 2014 5th place MVP season) and he should be in line to more than double his $5.8M 2017 salary.

Tanner Roark struggled in 2017 (… perhaps caused/aided by the frequently-seen WBC hangover?) but is still slated to be our 4th starter on a rotation that doesn’t currently have a fifth and should be in line for about an $8M payday.

Michael Taylor has established himself as one of the premier defensive center fielders in the game, will be set to start in 2018, and faces arbitration for the first time (likely to get around a $2.5M check).

Compare this to previous non-tender years (with links to non-tender specific posts from years past):

2016: we non-tendered Ben Revere, waived Aaron Barrett before having to make the NT decision, and declined Yusmeiro Petit‘s option as a way of “non-tendering” him.

2015: we non-tendered Craig Stammen, but kept NT candidates Jose Lobaton and Tyler Moore (eventually trading Moore after waiving him at the end of spring training).

2014: we did not non-tender anyone, though a couple weeks later traded NT candidate Ross Detwiler to Texas for two guys who never really panned out for us (Chris Bostick and Abel de los Santos).

2013: we did not non-tender anyone, only Ross Ohlendorf was a candidate, and in retrospect he probably should have been NT’d since he didn’t throw a pitch for the Nationals in 2014.

2012: we non-tendered three guys (Jesus Flores, Tom Gorzelanny, John Lannan) in the face of a huge amount of arbitration players (10).

2010: we non-tendered Chien-Ming Wang, Wil Nieves, Joel Peralta. We also outrighted 5 guys prior to the NT deadline, DFA’d two more in December, and DFA/dreleased four more guys prior to Spring training in a very busy off-season.

2009: we non-tendered Scott Olsen, Mike MacDougal

2008: we non-tendered Tim Redding, now the Pitching coach for our Auburn Short-A team, so I guess there was no hard feelings there

2007: we non-tendered Nook Logan, Mike O’Conner.

2006: we non-tendered or declined options for Ryan Drese, Brian Lawrence, Zach Day (it might have only been Day who was officially non-tendered)

2005: we non-tendered Carlos Baerga, Preston Wilson, Junior Spivey.

That’s a long trip down random memory lane for marginal Nationals players from yesteryear.

The FA market in general seems to be held up by two major names: Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani. Jeff Passan argues there’s other reasons (see this link) for the lack of movement, but one has to think the big names are a big part of it. I also believe that this year’s “crop” of FAs is … well kind of underwhelming. Here’s Passan’s ranking of FAs: his biggest names past Ohtani are Yu Darvish (who just sucked in the post-season, is coming off TJ surgery and doesn’t rate as the “Ace” he once was), J.D. Martinez (who blew up in 2017 but who has normally gotten a lot of his value from defense and he’s not getting any younger), Eric Hosmer (a 1B only guy, even if he’s really good, who seems like a safe bet to get over-pad and age badly) and Jake Arrieta (who has taken a step backwards from his Cy Young win and has already entered his decline years). Plus, the “price” for signing some of these QO-attached guys (Hosmer, Arrieta plus other top-10 FAs like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Wade Davis) will be quite steep for big-market and/or Luxury tax teams like our own Washington Nationals.

Frankly, between the higher price of forced loss of picks due to our over-spending last season, our current payroll tightness (we seem to only have about $17M to spend to stay under the tax for all of next year) and the underwhelming lot of available players … i don’t see us really participating in this year’s sweepstakes. Do we want to pony up for a middling 5th starter type like Jaime Garcia at the likely going price of $10M/year? Or roll the dice with a MLFA like we did with some success last year (Edwin Jackson, Jacob Taylor). Or just stay inhouse and let Erick Fedde continue to mature every 5th day on the mound?

Stanton, according to the tea-leaves i’m reading this week, seems like he’s heading to San Francisco, who is in desperate need for offense, outfielders and a franchise makeover after last year’s debacle. Stanton could fit all three. Which is great for him (he’s born and raised in California and would be joining a franchise that, despite its 2017 season, still has 3 WS titles in the last decade and a slew of marquee players to build around), great for the Nats (getting him out of the division), great for the “franchise” of Miami (who rids themselves of perhaps the 2nd worst contract in baseball behind Albert Pujols‘ and lets them get a relatively clean slate to start over for the new franchise ownership group), and of course awful for the “fans” of Miami, who thought they were finally getting rid of one of the worst owners in professional sports only to get slapped in the face with comical missteps by the new Derek Jeter-led ownership group, who managed to embarrass themselves in the most ridiculous way (by firing ceremonial Marlins legends for no good reason) early and then put themselves on the defensive needlessly by immediately crying poor and saying that they needed to pare payroll within a few days of taking over. If i was a Miami fan I wouldn’t know whether to laugh or cry.

I also think its notable that the first ex-Nat ranked on Passan’s list comes in at #43; the “ripe for regression” Matt Albers. Brandon Knitzler comes soon after him (who could be a re-signing candidate frankly for us, to put the “law firm” back together), then you have to get all the way down to #62 to find Jayson Werth. As compared to next off-season, when the Nats will have the #1 guy on the list.

Coming back to Ohtani (I’m going with the h in the name since after much research that’s what seems like the right way to spell it) ….

First things first: I desperately hope the Nats get him. Anyone who thinks that they’re better off without Ohtani is a fool; he’s set to become one of the biggest bargains in baseball. For the small price of a $20M posting fee, you get a guy who throws 100, is an 80 runner, and hits the crap out of the ball. For a miniscule bonus figure (the max any team has seems to be about $3.5M; the Nats only have $300k) and then a MLB min contract. Its just amazing. His presence could literally change the face of a franchise for a decade for about the same amount of money we will have paid Gio Gonzalez this year and next. I doubt he picks us though; it seems more likely he picks either a major market team (NY, Boston) on the east coast or (more likely) one of the west coast teams for better proximity to Japan and a larger Asian native market (LA, SF, Seattle). But its all speculation.

Hey, did I mention that the Nats need both another starter AND a lefty-bat off the bench, right now?? Ohtani would be perfect!

Side Note: why the heck is he coming over now and subjecting himself to MLB minimum contracts and arbitration?? He’s literally leaving $100M on the table by not waiting just two years and coming over un-restricted. I just cannot believe he’s doing this and costing himself so much money. I get the lip service comments about wanting to challenge himself, yadda yadda, but when there’s literally 9 figures of money on the table, I just don’t understand the decision. He’s projected to be better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, better than Darvish, both of whom got many times more money (Dice-K got $52M to him, $103M in total cost plus his posting fee), while Darvish got $60M to him and cost the Rangers $111M total with posting fee). It seems crazy.

Can’t wait to see where he goes, and I can’t wait to see if he’s the real deal.

It seems like every time I turn around, I see another ex-Nat pitching against us. This past weekend our old friend Tommy Milone surfaced with the Mets to help lead his team to victory against us.

It got me wondering; what’s the best pitching staff of ex-Nats you could come up with right now?

Using a quick and dirty reference guide for depth charts at rotoworld.com, and basically going off of memory of who used to be in our organization, here’s my starting five rotation members, how they were connected with us and how we parted ways.

Rich Hill, LA Dodgers. He of the near perfect-game turned to walk-off homer loss. Hill was a MLFA signing in March of 2015, threw in 25 games of relief and then was given his release halfway through the season (he probably had an opt-out). From there, he bounced to Boston before signing a one year deal with Oakland where he suddenly was an all-star starter. Oakland flipped him to LA, and now he’s the #2 starter basically on the best team in baseball.

Robbie Ray, Arizona. He was a big-money draft-pick by us before the new rules came in. Initially seen as a throw-in in the Doug Fister trade, Ray is now the one who “got away.” Detroit moved him to Arizona in the 3-way Didi Gregorius move, and he’s slowly come into his own. He made the All-Star team in 2017 and is one of the better starters in the NL this year.

Marco Estrada, Toronto. This one still amazes me; we drafted him in 2005 and developed him all the way through his 6-year free agency in the minors, with him showing little of what he now shows for Toronto. After leaving Washington, he signed in Milwaukee and eventually became a solid rotation member for them, but became an all-star in Toronto. I’m tempted btw to also put in Marcus Stroman, who we drafted out of HS as a short stop in 2009 before he went to Duke, learned how to pitch, and became a first rounder.

Brad Peacock, Houston. He’s got a 11.9 K/9 rate as a starter/swingman for Houston this year. We drafted him under the old “draft and follow” rules in the 41st round in 2006, developed him to the majors, then flipped him in the Gio Gonzalez deal. Oakland then moved him (as they’re apt to do) to Houston in 2013, where he’s pitched ever since. 2017 is easily his best pro season.

Alex Meyer, Los Angeles Angels. Our second “first round”pick in the 2011 draft (the “Rendon” draft), he was thought to be perhaps too big to start. Initially the trade bounty sent to Minnesota for Denard Span, Meyer took for ever to develop, got flipped to Los Angeles and took til his age 25 year to even debut in the majors. Finally in 2017 he’s showed some promise as a starter (though he’s missed time with a shoulder injury).

Interesting. When I started this post I thought it’d be deeper. I struggled to pick the 5th starter over the list of HMs. Would you take any of the honorable mentions over Meyer or Peacock right now? Can you think of anyone I’m missing? Giolito just had a nice start; do you take him over Meyer or these other guys?

Do we have any regrets about any of these guys getting away? Probably not. There’s no way we could have predicted what Hill would have become, and Ray was just a baby when he was flipped. We knew we were giving up talent in Peacock and Meyer … just not knowing how long it would have taken to matriculate. Estrada’s maturation was totally unexpected too.

As far as the honorable mentions go … i’m completely surprised Fister (and Milone for that matter) is still in the league. Giolito/Lopez was giving up talent to get talent. We seem to have dodged a huge bullet with Zimmermann. Karns has never really been healthy enough to show us what he has. Pivetta may eventually come back to haunt us, but his 24-yr old season showed he’s not quite ready for the bigs. Latos and Arroyo are barely hanging on (Arroyo may have already announced his retirement). Worley pitched against us a few weeks ago and beat us but overall his 2017 has been a struggle.

How about relievers? Here’s my best seven ex-Nats relievers out there (feel free to remind me if I forgot someone):

Felipe Rivero: the big name on this list; he’s exploded onto the scene since being flipped to Pittsburgh in the Mark Melancon deal. He’s got an ERA+ for 2017 of 345, a just ridiculous. He’s my ex-nat closer.

Blake Treinen: flipped to Oakland in a classic “change of scenery” move and he’s been stellar from day one on the west coast. Sub 2.00 ERA, 7 saves. Will he stay at this level? Hopefully for him, yes.

Mark Melancon: I know he’s struggled with injury this year, but he’s only 32 and should have plenty of more success. I’ll take him as closer 1-A to Rivero on my Ex-Nat staff.

Fernando Abad: DFA’d in the 2013 off-season then flipped to our favorite trade partner for a non-prospect minor leaguer, Abad was subsequently stellar for Oakland the following season. He’s been up and down since, but has also been stellar in Boston’s bullpen this year. He’s one of my Ex-Nat Loogies.

Jerry Blevins: the guy who (I think) Mike Rizzo traded for 50 cents on the dollar because he took the Nats to arbitration in 2015. He got hurt soon after the trade in 2015, but has given the Mets two very solid years out of the pen since.

Craig Stammen: that’s right; he’s not only back but has had a very nice season in San Diego’s bullpen.

Yusmeiro Petit: we signed him away from our nemesis San Francisco … and then he struggled badly enough to have his club-option declined. He promptly signed with the Angels and has been quite effective in 2017. He’s my ex-Nat long-man.

So, this is a much better bullpen than starting rotation. Three closer-quality guys at the top and two quality lefties. Both Stammen and Petit have been good this year. There’s a long list of honorable mention Nat relievers at this ponit and there may be others who are sitting in AAA right now.

Melancon was the highest profile FA from last year’s team. Photo via espn.

I was intrigued by ckstevenson’s comment/suggestion to do a piece on Former Nats. We certainly talk about them a lot, especially the traded pieces. So I’ll start a new series tracking down significant players who departed ways from the team. I figure year by year is the way to go, so we’ll look at guys who were with the franchise in 2016 who left either during the 2016 season or who were traded in the off-season prior to the beginning of the 2017 season.

I’ll leverage previously written material from my Nats to Oblivion Posts to start, then fill in the holes. I’ll focus on players no longer with the organization, not guys like Clint Robinson who got DFA’d off the 40-man but who are still with the org in some capacity.

I’ll organize this by roughly by the level of the player; major league players who left via FA or trade, then DFAd/declined players, then minor leaguers of note.

Mark Melancon: signed a 4 years/$62M with the San Francisco Giants, through his age 36 year, which was a record for a relief pitcher that lasted a few more weeks until Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen signed in last off-season’s closer bonanza. So far in 2017 he’s been solid, as expected. The Nats were pursuers, but didn’t want to go as high on total value.

Wilson Ramos: signed a 2yr/$12.5M deal with Tampa, with incentives to possibly take that to around $18.5M. A far cry from his value prior to the knee injury.

Matt Belisle: signed a 1 year/$2.05M deal with Minnesota. He only made $1.25M on a minor/major league deal with Washington in 2016, who didn’t want to guarantee him this kind of money for 2017 in his age 38 year season. So far in 2017 he’s been very solid, picking up where he left off last year. We could probably have used him … but that’s “hindsight is 20/20” argument right now; you could also look at his 2016 and say “one-off” season and fully expect him to regress this year.

Marc Rzepczynski: signed a 2 years/$11M deal with Seattle, clearly more than the Nats were willing to pay, despite the fact that we traded future hall-of-famer Max Schrock to acquire him. As of this writing he had yet to give up a run for Seattle’s bullpen in 2017.

Danny Espinosa: traded to the Angels for two AAA arms after the team made him obsolete (and destroyed his trade value) by acquiring Adam Eaton and making it clear that Trea Turner was going to be the 2017 shortstop. Espinosa returns to his home town and is doing about what we’d expect from him; hitting .186 and leading the league in strikeouts through April 2017.

Yusmeiro Petit, who made the 2017 Angels as an NRI and has been very effective thus far in 2017, pitching to a 1.59 ERA through most of April.

Ben Revere was non-tendered and signed a 1yr/$4M deal with the Angels (with some incentives). Revere joins former Nats Petit, Espinosa, Yunel Escobar and Alex Meyer in Los Angeles; that’s 20% of their current active roster with Washington ties.

Jonathan Papelbon: Released mid-2016, not only did he not sign on for the rest of the season … he has yet to sign on with anyone for 2017. He was reportedly “dealing with a family matter” over the off-season that prevented him from signing with a team. I think that’s code for “I’m no longer good enough to convince a team to deal with my baggage so I’m probably retired.” Either that or he’s somehow self convinced that his 89mph fastball still plays as a closer in the modern game and refused to consider middle relief options.

Derek Norris became the second ex-Washington catcher to join Tampa Bay this off-season, signing a 1yr/$1.2M deal with another $800k in roster bonuses after getting cut loose from his $4.2M arbitration-avoiding contract this spring. The transaction cost Washington a cool $688k. Norris has struggled badly at the plate thus far.

Sean Burnett: Signed MLFA deal with Philadelphia for 2017, but was cut on 3/26/17. Not even assigned to AAA. As of this writing is un-signed. I’m slightly surprised someone hasn’t taken a flier on him as a AAA loogy, unless the scouting reports from his time last fall indicate that his 2nd elbow isn’t as good as his first.

Mat Latos got his rehab assignment paid for by the team last year but couldn’t parlay it into anything but a MLFA deal for 2017 with Toronto. However, a slate of injuries to Toronto’s rotation resulted in his getting called up in April 2017, shocking me; I figured Latos was done. His first start wasn’t great: 4 runs in 5 innings; we’ll see how long he lasts in the hitter-friendly Skydome.

Matt den Dekker: Signed MLFA/NRI deal with Miami for 2017. Did not make the 25-man roster and is currently in their AAA affilliate in New Orleans.

Paolo Espino, who had a solid year starting in AAA, signed a MLFA deal with Milwaukee for 2017. Through his first 4 starts for their AAA team in Colorado Springs, he’s posted similar numbers to what he did for us last year, quite a feat for playing at such altitude). I thought Espino was a loss for a team that clearly doesn’t rate its remaining AAA starters that much and who had an open tryout for 4-A types like Jeremy Guthrie and Vance Worley all spring.

Vance Worley; speaking of Worley, after not beating out Guthrie or anyone else to make our team, he opted out and joined den Dekker (and Tyler Moore, and Destin Hood, and Steve Lombardozzi) in Miami’s AAA team in New Orleans. That’s 5 players with Nats ties on a 25-man team. Worley through 4 starts: 1.66 ERA. Perhaps the Nats picked the wrong veteran hurler. Worley had solid numbers for Baltimore in 2016; still not sure why he wasn’t looked at more closely.

Erik Davis: longtime Nats farmhand Davis took a MLFA deal to leave our system, signed with the AAA affiliate in Reno of Arizona and has been stellar thus far in 2017; zero ER and 12 k’s in 8 innings. If he turns into a serviceable RH reliever at a time that the Nats need some … i’ll be disappointed.

Taylor Jordan: summarily cut after it became clear he would need a second Tommy John surgery. I thought the timing was a bit cruel and hope that Jordan at least got his medical bills paid for by the team.

Abel De los Santos was claimed off waivers off our 40-man roster by Cincinnati, who eventually called him up for a 2-week stint last September. However, they waived him in October and he got claimed by … guess who … the Los Angeles Angels. The DFA’d him a month later during the pre-Rule5 period and snuck him off their 40-man roster. He’s struggling for their AA team in Mobile so far in 2017.

Reynaldo Lopez (traded for Eaton): struggling with is control thus far in 4 starts for AAA Charlotte. 1-1 with a 4.87 ERA and a 22/13 K/BB ratio.

Lucas Giolito (traded for Eaton):also struggling with his control thus far in 4 starts for Charlotte: he’s 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and a 16/9 K/BB ratio.

Dane Dunning (traded for Eaton): has posted a 0.45 ERA through his first three starts for low-A Kannapolis, with a 26-1 K/BB ratio, though as noted in the comments previously, Dunning is the sole 1st round college draftee from a 4-year school who is NOT already in High-A. He’s a man among boys in Low-A and needs to be moved up to get any useful reading off his stuff.

Mario Sanchez (traded for Cordero): has given up 5 runs in 9 innings thus far for AA Reading in the Philadelphia system.

Pedro Avila (traded for Norris): 3 starts and decent numbers for Lake Elsinore in High-A. He’ll give up hits in that hitter-friendly league, keep in mind. At the end of the day, trading Avila so that we’d have the honor of giving Norris a check for $688k and then releasing him was not the best business Mike Rizzo has ever done.

Felipe Rivero (traded for Melancon); 0.77 ERA through 12 appearances for the Pirates in 2017. We’ve litigated this one to death; it was a tough return to give up for Melancon … but what choice did we have at that point last year?

Taylor Hearn (traded for Melancon); iffy results through 3 starts for High-A Bradenton in the FSL. Big arm, lots of Ks, can he stay as a starter. That’ll be the scouting report on Hearn until he arrives in the majors by hook or by crook.

Max Schrock (traded for Rzepczynski): Future hall of famer Schrock is slashing .231/.286/.288 through mid-April for AA Midland in the Oakland system. For as much as I mock Schrock, I will note that he was paid like a 3rd or 4th rounder out of college irrespective of where he got drafted, so his eventual success really should be measured more in that light than the specific round he was picked (13th).

Burke Badenhop MLFA for the 2016 season, didn’t make the team and was released, signed ML deal with Texas but lasted exactly one week before getting released again, and never signed on for the rest of 2016 or since.

That’s a lot of player churn, and a lot of prospects traded. Did I forget anyone?

Here’s my recurring “Opening Day” trivia/useless information post. Here was 2016’s version, 2015, 2014 and 2013. I also reference many Google XLS/Google Doc creations with historical data below, all of which have been updated for 2017.

Why are these values different? Cots and USA today disagree on Strasburg’s 2017 salary to the tune of about $2M, and that’s about the difference between their two figures. My XLS counts all salaries in *current dollars* only, as opposed to the salary cap figures that USA Today and Cots do (Cots also splits out the signing bonuses prorated to each year of the contract). Plus I count in payments to former players (in our case, Petit and Norris). I believe this is a better representation of how the team and the Lerners see their payroll. Teams that have huge payments to former players (like the Dodgers and Padres) should absolutely have those “dead money” payments included. Roughly speaking, Strasburg and Scherzer both are getting $15M in current dollars but more than $40M combined in these claculations, which is a huge part of the delta between my XLS and Cots’.

Oh, by the way, the Nats now have $199 MILLION dollars of deferred payments on the books when adding in Blanton’s (mostly) deferred salary.

I’ve put both of these lists side by side into this little handy Payroll XLS to demonstrate how ridiculously bad the USA Today figures are. They’re off by $35M for the Padres and by $53M for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Thats because the USA Today figures don’t account for any salaries being paid for former players, which in the modern game has more and more become a standard. So, basically I ignore USA Today’s figures and always use Cot’s.

The Dodgers continue to lead the way (by either measure). The Brewers are now dead last, just ahead of the purposely tanking Padres. You may have seen posts that noted that Clayton Kershaw gets paid more this year than the Padres entire 25-man roster, and that’s true, but it ignores the $30M+ of dead money on their payroll.

The Nats are 9th on both lists. Imagine what we could spend with a market value RSN!!

Home Openers Information

Opening Day 2017 attendance was announced at 42,744 . That’s up more than a thousand from last year. Here’s all our home openers in order with attendance, time of game, weather:

2013’s opening day attendance of 45,274 remains the regular season record attendance.

All time record attendance? The ill-fated 2012 NLDS game 5: 45,966. No playoff games in 2014 or 2016 came close.

The first game in franchise history; 2005 in RFK: 45,596, which stood until the 2012 NLDS record-setting game.

The long-running regular season attendance record was the great Fathers day 2006 game in RFK against the Yankees: 45,157. That record stood for more than 6 years.

Home Openers Box Scores and Results

Nats are 5-8 in their home openers now since moving to Washington. Stephen Strasburg‘s 2017 start joins him with Livan Hernandez as the only two pitchers to throw more than one home opener for this team. When Livan gets elected to Cooperstown, I hope he’s wearing the curly W.

The Nats managed to lose 6 of their first 7 season openers … only winning in 2008 when debuting their new stadium. And Jon Rauch did his darndest to blow that opener too, coughing up the lead in the 9th to give Ryan Zimmerman a chance at glory.

Justin Verlander returned to Opening Day duties, getting his 9th career opening day start; he remains in 3rd place actively.

Clayton Kershaw now has seven straight and may be in a position to challenge the all time records.

For the Nats; Stephen Strasburg gets his fourth. Max Scherzer has two. John Lannan, now back as a submarining lefty in AAA, also has two.

Twelve (12) pitchers made their first career opening day start in 2017, including (surprisingly) Yu Darvish.

Edinson Volquez got his 5th career opening day start … on four different teams.

The Mets have now used 7 different opening day starters in the last 7 seasons. But that pales in comparison to what’s going on in Texas: 9 straight different opening day starters there. Miami has used 6 different guys in a row and there’s a few other teams that have used 4 or 5 different guys over the last 4-5 seasons.

The most ever? Tom Seaver with 16. The most consecutive? Jack Morris with 14.

Every year the team invites a bunch of Non-Roster Invitees (NRIs) to Spring Training, and every year we wonder if any of these guys have a chance to make the team. This post discusses the NRIs and their chances. Through out the winter some NRIs were announced with signings; on 2/11/17 the full list of NRIs was announced.

This is no throw-away post: here’s what has happened to Washington Nationals NRIs the last two spring trainings:

Summary of NRIs from ST 2016: 20 NRIs total (plus perhaps a couple more that got signed late):

Two (2) made the 25-man roster: (Chris Heisey and as noted in the comments, thanks for the correction, Matt Belisle).

Two (2) eventually got added and called up (Lucas Giolito, Sean Burnett)

Two (2) have since been added to 40-man (Matt Skole, Austin Voth)

Summary of NRIs from ST 2015: 20 NRis total:

Two (2) made the 25-man roster out of spring (Dan Uggla and Clint Robinson)

Two (2) others eventually got added and called up (Rafael Martin and Emmanuel Burriss)

Two (2) others were young catchers since added to the 40-man (Spencer Kieboom, Pedro Severino)

So that’s six NRIs from 2016 that eventually played for the Nats or got added to the 40-man roster, and six from the year . So odds are a handful of these players will eventually have a major league impact for this team. Lets take a look at 2017’s NRI roster. From the mlb.com NRI roster, lets break them down by position.

Starters

RHP Jacob Turner: once upon a time he was halfway decent for an NL East team (Miami), but lost his effectiveness somewhere in the 2014 timeframe and hasn’t gotten it back. Seems like AAA rotation filler to me.

RHP Vance Worley: an interesting minor league signing; why couldn’t he get a 40-man contract after the season he just had in Baltimore? Could be a sneaky effective pickup.

RHP Jeremy Guthrie: 272 career starts but none in the majors since getting dumped from Kansas City’s 2015 rotation. In 2016 he posted an ERA north of 7.00 for Miami and San Diego’s AAA squads. He’ll be 38. I’m not sure he’s really any better of a “spare starter” option than what we already have in house.

RHP Erick Fedde: his invite clearly indicates to me that the MLB staff wants to get a look at him, figuring that he’s taken over as the next big thing in terms of starting pitcher prospects. With all due respect to A.J. Cole and Austin Voth, its really Fedde that I’d like to see pitching in the majors if/when we have a month long starter injury later this summer.

RHP Taylor Hill; may be up to see if he’s got anything left in the tank, or perhaps to eat some split squad innings? Once you’re off the 40-man it seems pretty hard to get back, and that’s the dilemna that Hill faces.

RHP Kyle McGowin, recently acquired in the Danny Espinosa deal. I’m guessing the team wants to see what they have. McGowin’s 2016 numbers were awful … but pitching in the PCL is generally awful, so its hard to scout the stat line here.

FWIW, a couple of these guys who I’ve called “starters” (Turner and Worley) may actually still be starters, but they’re close enough to starting that the team could look at them as such. I could see Worley getting the last spot in the MLB rotation and acting as a swing man/6th starter, not unlike what we used Yusmeiro Petit for last year. The minor league invites mean that the whole AAA rotation will be in camp. Unless the team suffers 3 SP injuries in camp, nobody here is making the 25-man on 4/1.

Right Handed Relievers

RHP Matt Albers; Great in 2015, awful in 2016. Wrong side of 30, losing his swing and miss stuff. Seems like he’s just in camp to rebuild value and likely opts out if he doesn’t make the team.

RHP Joe Nathan: 377 career saves, but he’s 42, was last effective as a 38yr old in 2013, and this seems like perhaps an audition for him to take a role on a coaching staff here.

RHP Dustin Antolin: longtime Toronto farm hand who spent 3 straight years in their AA team and was a part-time closer for their AAA team last year with good results; seems like a safe bet to close in AAA and serve as middle relief insurance.

RHP Derek Eitel; similar to Antolin; long time farm hand who finished a ton of games in AAA for San Diego last year. Averaged a K/inning but had a ton of walks.

RHP Wander Suero: a long-serving middle relief option for the team, Suero has grown up in the system. He’s entering his 8th pro season and I’m guessing the team wants to see if he’s a MLB middle relief option and/or an option to eventually add to the 40-man roster ahead of his pending MLFA deadline.

Left handed Relievers

LHP Tim Collins: hasn’t pitched in 2 years thanks to a failed TJ surgery that cost him a second season, but was pretty effective for Kansas City to that point. I think he has to think he’s heading to AAA to prove to teams that he’s ok.

LHP Braulio Lara: seems like a lottery ticket based on performances from a few years past; he got shelled in Korea, shelled in AAA recently.

LHP Neal Cotts: long time reliever who has had some bouts of success over the years, but who didn’t make it out of AAA last year. Can’t see him supplanting the 40-man guys ahead of him on the Loogy pecking order.

LHP Nick Lee, who like Hill before him was on the 40-man and then passed through waivers to get removed from it. He was good enough to protect in 2015 (putting up good numbers in a closing role for AA) but really struggled with his control in 2016 (42 walks in 50 innings). Perhaps a mechanical tweak can put him back on the radar to being an effective reliever.

Tangent: The recent addition of optionless Enny Romero may complicate a 25-man path for these guys. Or perhaps not; the arm they gave up (Jeffrey Rosa) was so insignificant that I had to look him up because I forgot who he was. In case you were wondering, Rosa was the “ace” of this year’s GCL team, getting 11 starts and posting a 4.91 ERA. As a 21 year old. So that means he was a 19-yr old IFA signing from a land where most players of note sign at 16 and only the rare cases make it to 18 and still have a minor league impact. So perhaps the team isn’t entirely wedded to Romero making the roster/challenging his no-options status. That trade was more about Tampa shedding a 40-man spot and getting something (anything) in return.

Discussion: So, no real “closers” in here, even if you somehow think Nathan can still produce (I don’t). I think a couple of these guys will exercise opt-outs and the rest will sign up in AAA. I can’t see any of them seriously challenging any of the existing 40-man arms for a spot. The one exception could be Collins for me; he was good, had bad luck with his injury and could very well come back and be effective; is he a better Loogy option than our current set of lefties (Perez, Solis, Romero and Grace)? I doubt it. I like the call-up of Suero and Lee; i think its a good idea for the team to see what they have here.

Catchers:

Jhonatan Solano, who probably reprises his role as AAA backup for Syracause and is in camp mostly to help with all the warm-up duties.

Infielders:

Emmanuel Burriss: we are quite familiar with Burriss, who is a Washington DC native and was with the org two years ago. I see little chance of him breaking with the team but he’ll do exactly what he did for us in 2015: toil in Syracuse, wait for an injury in the infield and bide his time until he can get some MLB at-bats. In 2015 he was up by June 26th; what are the odds that the Nats infield holds up without injury again in 2017?

Grant Green; primarily a 2B, but can play like a utility guy around the field. He’s a former 1st round pick and a highly regarded prospect; don’t see much of a position for him though. Will he stick around if he doesn’t make the team?

Corban Joseph: owns a grand total of 7 MLB at-bats, and that was in 2013. He has toiled in the minors for the last four full seasons, bouncing around organizations. He plays 1B and 2B and seems like the backup to the backup for Daniel Murphy. In other words, if Joseph is playing, we’ve really suffered some serious injuries.

Neftali Soto: the 2016 MLFA signing had such a solid year for the organization that they re-signed him and gave him the NRI invite this year. I suppose he’s Ryan Zimmerman insurance … but like Snyder is a RH hitter who is more or less limited to 1B. Hard to see a pathway for him.

Drew Ward: this NRI seems a bit premature; he was in A-ball a year ago this time. But Ward also faces Rule-5 protection this coming off-season and is one of the few remaining hopes of the 2013 draft class of producing much in the way of MLB talent for the home team. He could be a replacement for an Anthony Rendon injury at some point too.

Its hard to see any openings here, especially given the Stephen Drew re-signing. Are any of these guys beating out Wilmer Difo? Doubt it.

Outfielders

Brandon Snyder: another local product (Westfield HS in Chantilly) and another 1st round pick who has sputtered out. He has some pop, but he bats right handed … and the RH bench spot is already committed (along with $1.4M) to Chris Heisey. Snyder seems like AAA “spare parts” insurance for 2017.

Andrew Stevenson: I know he was a high draft pick, but based on what I saw of him in college i’m still kind of shocked he’s advanced so quickly. He joins several other CF-capable players in camp and signals to me at least that the team clearly thinks he’s got a role going forward.

Note that there’s really nobody invited to compete with the likes of Michael Taylor/Brian Goodwin for 5th outfielder spot. Yes Stevenson is a CF … does anyone think he’s MLB ready? Snyder seems to be competition with Clint Robinson/Matt Skole/Chris Heisey for bench bat/corner spots. He had good numbers in small sample sizes for Atlanta last year; maybe he’s an option. Problem is that he bats righty and the team already guaranteed money to Heisey, so there’s no direct competition for Robinson/Skole as a “corner lefty bat with some pop.”

Conclusion/predictions: I predict no NRIs make the team out of spring training right now. But I could see several of these guys head to AAA and get call-ups in the case of a 60-day D/L trip. And a number of the minor league invite guys will feature eventually.

Post-publishing update: indeed, no NRIs made the opening day 25-man roster, but clearly the plan was in the works to bring in NRI Jeremy Guthrie to make a spot start early into the season and perhaps stick around as the long man…. Except that Guthrie got absolutely battered in said start (10 runs in 2/3rds of an inning), leading to his immediate DFA and the subsequent call up of a second NRI Matt Albers (over, it should be noted, four other 40-man roster relievers). Then, thanks to two quick infielder injuries the first week, a third NRI Grant Green was called-up to provide some cover.

So technically zero NRIs made the team but several were used inside of the first week.

By the end of 2017 season, here’s the final list of ST NRI invites who appeared for the Nats: Guthrie, Albers, Green, and Stevenson

Lets break down these current 31 guys and see what their payroll looks like projected for 2017 to see what kind of financial flexibility the team may have. Using the ever-awesome Cots MLB player salary site as a source here we go:

Players Already Under Contract for 2017 – 8

Werth, Jayson: $21,571,429

Scherzer, Max: $15,000,000

Strasburg, Stephen: $15,000,000

Zimmerman, Ryan: $14,000,000

Gonzalez, Gio: $12,100,000 (Option for 2017 picked up 11/3/16)

Murphy, Daniel: $12,000,000

Perez, Oliver: $4,000,000

Kelley, Shawn: $5,500,000

Subtotal: $99,171,429 <– Sum of Established Contracts for 2017

Note that I’ve not prorated any deferred money for Scherzer, Strasburg. Also, I’m not entirely sure what Werth did last year; was it to lower his 2016 salary by $10M and pay that later? I think so, so I don’t believe his 2017 salary was affected. I do not agree with the prorating that Cot’s does with the deferred dollars on Scherzer/Strasburg; I think the Lerners are treating it like payments later on so as to add financial flexibility now, so I count just the dollars owed in 2017 here. With these caveats, we come to the $99.1M figure due for these 8 players. Feel free to comment and correct me if I have this wrong.

Arbitration Eligible Players for 2017 – 6

I’m using MLB Trade rumors’ estimates instead of doing my own guesses since they’ve proven to be hyper accurate in years’ past, but will offer commentary on each figure.

Now, I’m on record saying that I think the team non-tenders Revere; I cannot imagine paying $6.3M for the production we got out of him last year. If the team thinks 2016 was an aberration and he can return to his 2015 form, then $6.3M might be a bargain (reminder: he hit .319 and had a 101 OPS+ figure in Toronto in 2015). However, for the time being i’m going with Revere getting non-tendered. I also think Harper’s going to sign a 2-year deal to buy out the rest of his Arb years, so I could see something like a 2yr/$25M deal at 10 and 15. I think the Rendon figure seems high (yes he had a solid year but $6.4 more than doubles his 2016 pay). I also have a hard time believing that Roark is going to net $6.1M in his first arb season, no matter how good he was last year.

So my working guess on this number is $35M less Revere’s $6.3 and less a bit more off of the Rendon & Roark numbers: call it $27,200,000.

Pre Arbitration MLB players – 17

Robinson, Clint $540,000

Treinen, Blake $536,000

Taylor, Michael $530,000

Ross, Joe $520,000

Gott, Trevor $518,000

Turner, Trea $507,500

Solis, Sammy $507,500

Glover, Koda $507,500

Severino, Pedro $507,500

Difo, Wilmer $507,500

Cole, A.J. $507,500

Goodwin, Brian $507,500

Grace, Matt

Martin, Rafael

Kieboom, Spencer

Giolito, Lucas

Lopez, Reynaldo

Subtotal: $6,196,500

The rest of the 40-man roster are pre-arbitration/team-assigned salaries. The current league minimum salary is $507,500; that might change, that might go up with the new CBA. For the time being, those players above who are ABOVE that figure are those who have played at the MLB level and have earned a nominal raise. These are guesses on these nominal salary increases, and then the rest of the guys are listed assuming they all make next year’s 25-man roster. Assuming no acquisitions, 12 of these pre-arb guys will be on the 25-man roster so that’s roughly $6M.

That figure represents about a $12M delta from last year’s working payroll figure of $145,178,886 (cot’s figure), but is about $5.7M higher than my “present day dollar only” figure for last year’s squad.

So, I’m not sure if the team has $12M to “spare” or will be looking to cut costs. Either way they’re nearly $30M below the 2015 payroll figure of $162M (Cots).

That’s not too bad. It also doesn’t account for any players received from trading Gonzalez and Espinosa; we could get back a starting catcher, pushing Severino to AAA, or we could get a utility infielder, obviating the need for Drew or Heisey.

Ramos may be the toughest off-season decision the team makes. Photo via wp.com

Another year, another playoff failure. Beat it to death already. Time to move on.

Lets talk about the post-season “To Do” list is for the Nats. We’ll have eventual posts to talk about other stuff, like Tender decisions, 40-man decisions ahead of the Rule5 draft, etc.

In this post, we’ll squint at the overall roster, look at blatant holes that will need filling, and discuss how they might get filled. Call it the cliche’s “General Manager for a day” post for the Nats this coming off-season.

Pending Free Agents we are waving good-bye to and the holes they thus leave (as per the invaluable Cots site at BaseballProspectus):

Mark Melancon: though i’d love to re-sign him … see later in the post.

Wilson Ramos: his injury is a shame for both player and team; he likely lost $50M in guaranteed FA money and the team lost a clear QO-compensation pick. He may not even be able to catch again, which dumps him to the AL, where his market is significantly cut thanks to the lessening of demand for bat-only DH types. Ramos is in serious career jeopardy right now; would he decamp back to the Nats on some sort of minimally guaranteed deal with performance incentives?

Stephen Drew: also one I hope re-signs; see later in the post.

Chris Heisey: one who I think is replaceable; look for another cattle call for RH bat options this coming spring training.

Matt Belisle: despite not making the NLDS roster, he was great for Washington this year and is worth another contract.

Mark Rzepczynski: He’s been very effective for us, and overall had a good 2016. His 2015 was awful, but he was good before that. Such is the life of specialist relievers.

Sean Burnett and Mat Latos: both given Sept 2016 tryouts; neither seem likely to be retained.

Jonathan Papelbon: worth mentioning if only for the payroll flexibility.

Guys who I think are clear Non-Tenders (probably a topic worth its own post).

Yusmeiro Petit: $3M option with $500k buyout for 2017; pitched poorly in 2016, didn’t make the post-season roster and should be replaceable on the roster by any number of our AAA starters.

Ben Revere: $6.25M salary this year, due an arbitration raise for 2017; struggled badly in 2016, lost his job to a guy who had about 2 week of CF experience and didn’t make the post-season roster.

Aaron Barrett: as heartless as it would be; he’s arb-eligible, still hurt, not likely to be ready by opening day and is completely replaceable as a RH middle reliever).

Total savings from these non-tenders: roughly $10M

Guys who I think its Time to Trade and the holes they thus leave. This also may be worthy of its own whole post.

Gio Gonzalez: I think the Nats can take advantage of a historically weak FA market for starters and Gio’s very friendly contract (two $12M options for 2017 and 2018) and move him. Yes he struggled this year, but if you look at what middle rotation innings eaters like him are getting these days, $12M is a bargain and he should fetch something we value. Moving him lets some of the guys who are clearly biting on the heels of a deserved rotation spot earn it for 2017 and thus the Nats “save” $11.5M in salary for the 2017 roster.

Danny Espinosa: As much as I have argued against this, his 2017 playoff performance has solidified in my mind the need to move him. He has his pros (a plus defender range wise, perhaps the best SS arm in the game, and serious power for a SS) and his cons (he hit just .209 this year, he strikes out at about a 30% clip, and his switch hitting capabilities are really in question). Nonetheless, there has to be some demand for a 25-home run capable plus defender SS in a lineup that can afford one crummy batting average at the bottom of the order. Perhaps an AL team that doesn’t have to also bat a sub .200 BA pitcher.

Total savings from these guys getting moved (not counting payroll received in return of course): $15-$16M.

So, adding up all three lines, assuming a steady payroll ceiling similar to this year’s and not counting arbitration raises (or Strasburg‘s new contract), you’d have roughly $47M with which to work. Not bad. Strasburg’s new contract will take $5M away from that flexibility (he made $10M last year, will make $15M next) and arbitration raises for Harper, Rendon and Roark will cost some cash, but that’s a post for another day. Lets call it $30M in available FA dollars when all is said and done.

So, assuming you’re even reading this far and havn’t already started commenting and arguing about that list of players, here’s the presumed holes that losing these 10 players leaves (in order of mention above):

Closer

Starting Catcher

Backup Utility Infielder

Backup RH bench bat/corner outfielder

6th/7th inning RH reliever

Loogy

Long Man/Spot starter/7th guy out of the pen

Backup Outfielder (CF capable)

Another 6th/7th inning RH reliever

#5 Starter

Starting Shortstop

(and not really counting the “loss” of Burnett and Latos for this discussion)

If we just filled these holes internally, what would it look like?

Closer: Make Shawn Kelley the closer and move up Treinen and Glover to be 8th inning guys. This leaves a hole later on in the pen for the middle RH relievers (see below)

Starting Catcher: promote Lobaton to starter and install Severino as the backup. Or switch them; honestly I like Severino’s at-bats; he looks confident. I don’t think Kieboom is ready for the show, so it makes sense to tender Lobaton for one more year.

Backup Utility Infielder: Difo becomes the first go-to guy to backup Turner/Murphy, but we’ll still need another utility guy.

Backup RH bench bat/corner outfielder: not much internally to go to; both the 2016 AAA and AA rosters are basically bereft of decent hitting prospects who might be candidates. We’ll be trolling the FA market here for sure. See the next section.

Two 6th/7th inning RH relievers: We have Gott and Martin on the 40-man; they could step up to replace these two guys like for like. Right now we have five RH relievers under contract for 2017 (Kelley, Treinen, Glover, Gott and Martin) to go along with two lefties (Solis and Perez); that’s not too bad of a bullpen to start out with, but could be improved. And this lineup doesn’t “really” have a long man, so you’d have to think one of Gott or Martin is in AAA to make room for a long-man (likely Martin at this point).

Loogy: its arguable whether we need another lefty with both Solis and Perez under contract, but they went most of the year this year with three. Matt Grace is still on the 40-man and would be an internal option.

Long Man/Spot starter/7th guy out of the pen: loser of #5 starter competition (see below)

Backup Outfielder (CF capable): Michael Taylor, in what likely is his ceiling from here forward.

#5 Starter: have Sprint Training 2017 tryouts for the #5 starter between Lopez, Giolito, Cole and even Voth (who I’m assuming by that time will be on the 40-man, protected ahead of this coming off-season’s Rule-5 draft). The winner is #5 starter, and one of the losers could be the long-man (well, if the loser is someone like Cole or Voth, who aren’t nearly as “big” of a prospect as Giolito). There’s also the distinct possibility that Lopez’s arm is turned into a closer at some point if he can’t turn over lineups. Check out Lopez’s 2016 splits, specifically SP versus RP and specifically the “Times Facing an Opponent” during the game; as a starter he struggles with the first time through the order, but not as a reliever.

And we’re missing one-two spots that don’t really have natural in-house replacements: another backup infielder and a starting Center fielder.

So, looking at that 25-man roster, where do we see areas of need? This feeds directly into the Off-season Priorities in the next section.

Quick diversion: Notice I didn’t say what position Bryce Harper is playing. Honestly, if Turner is vacating CF and we’re waving good-bye to Espinosa, then I think you have to put Harper in center. Here’s my main arguments for putting him in center (most of which are “anti-arguments” for those who for some reason think he cannot play center):

He’s young. He just turned 24 for crying out loud; there’s no reason he doesn’t have the youth or athleticism to handle center. Mantle did it while hitting for power. So did Mays. So did Griffey Jr and Aaron for the early part of his career. Trout plays center.

He’s got the arm (he has the 2nd best statistically rated arm in the majors in 2016), he’s got the speed (21 Stolen bases this year). And now he has years of OF experience on which to depend.

He’s played there before and played well. Here’s his career fielding stats from fangraphs.com: He had more than 700 innings in CF in 2012 and played it to a fantastic UZR/150 figure of 19.1 and 13 DRS. He was also great there in more limited sample sizes in 2013 and 2015. I leave out 2014 since that was his injury season and its clearly skewed as compared to his other seasons.

By putting Harper in Center, you vastly open open up the roster possibilities on the FA market. Look at the pending FA last at mlbtraderumors.com and compare/contrast the available options at CF versus LF/RF.

Top FA/Trade Priorities in 2016-2017 Off-season

Fantasy: I view these as not really possible but are listed as “fantasy” wish lists. Both fixate on moving unmovable contracts, so they’ll probably remain fantasies.

Upgrade 1B: dump Zimmerman and upgrade offensively at that position.

Upgrade LF: dump Werth and the last year of his deal and find a LF-capable bopper.

Acquire a leading CF: back up the farm system and dump it out for a leading center fielder. Charlie Blackmon or Andrew McCutchen are names often mentioned thanks to the precarious position their teams face. Mike Trout is the funny name you also hear since he’s so good he’s virtually untrade-able. Unlike Tom Boswell, and as discussed in comments here before, re-signing Ian Desmond to man CF poorly would not be my first choice either. I’d rather go with my “Bryce to Center” plan as laid out above.

Reality

Corner Outfielder. See above Harper->CF logic. If you want to splurge (and hurt your #1 divisional rival) sign Yoenis Cespedes. Or you could make a big splash and sign Jose Bautista to a 3-yr deal that ends the same time Harper hits FA. Werth remains serviceable in left, where he is mitigated defensively while Bautista still has value in RF. This is where I could see a big chunk of the $30M of FA dollars going. Lord knows we could use another clutch hitter in the middle of the order.

Closer: Above I said i’d love to re-sign Melancon, but more and more it seems like he’s going to be the 4th prize in a 4-closer musical chairs race. And he’s gonna get paid. And I’m not sure that the Nats are going to pay him. Per the same previously mentioned FA list there’s 5 “active” closers hitting FA: Melancon, Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Sergio Romo There’s a whole slew of guys who are FA who are former closers though, names like Andrew Bailey, Joaquin Benoit, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli, Greg Holland, J.J. Hoover, Jonathan Papelbon (haha, just making sure you’re still reading), Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, and Brad Ziegler. There’s probably even more frankly; these were just the ones who stood out as I read the list. Now, i’m not saying most of these guys are legitimate options, but some of these guys were perfectly good as closers and got “layered” by better closers. Take Ziegler for example: he was just fine for Arizona for a while, then got moved to Boston where he got demoted to 8th inning duties. I’d take him as a late-innings bullpen option.

Bullpen arm: middle reliever: Now, all that being said about Closers, I think maybe what the team does is install one of their existing options as “the closer” and then maybe hire one of these former closers to be an 8th inning/emergency closer kind of guy. That’s essentially what they got last year with Shawn Kelley and that’s worked out ok. I’d go after some of the ex-closer guys listed above, try to get them on an affordable deal (like halfway to closer money maybe) and that’d help off-set the losses of Melancon and Belisle.

Veteran utility infielder: as noted above, there’s not much in the farm system here. If you keep Espinosa and put him in this role, then this is moot .. but we’ve read over and again about his disposition when he’s not playing. This is kind of why I think we need to move him. He’s more valuable in trade than he is in this bench role. I hope the team re-ups with Stephen Drew honestly; he was solid, can cover all infield positions as needed, and can probably be had for a similar deal as last year. I’d be happy with Difo and Drew and wouldn’t be opposed to perhaps another veteran utility guy to pair with Drew and compete with Difo if we don’t think Difo is up to the task.

Less Likely:

Backup LF/IB bench bats: While I like Robinson and I think Heisey did a good job this year, one struggled and the other is a FA with no guarantee of returning. I absolutely expect to see another spring training cattle call of veteran bats of the LF/1B type to compete for roster spots. I’m appreciative of Goodwin‘s completely unexpected line at the plate upon his call up; do we think he’s a better lefty bat option off the bench than Robinson? I’m not sure. I also sense (based on anecdotal evidence read over the years) that Robinson is a clubhouse and teammate favorite, which might make it tougher to cut him when the time comes. Especially with a player’s manager type like Dusty Baker. I know this is where MartyC will cry about Matt Skole (likely to depart in MLFA this coming off-season) and I understand; its all about potential versus production and Skole never produced enough during these annual spring training “tryouts” to win his spot.

Catcher: Here’s where the most arguing may occur. I’m of the belief, after watching Severino down the stretch, that he could slide right into the starting spot right now. I thought he looked good at the plate, took confident at-bats, never looked over matched, and (here’s the kicker) *puts the ball in play!* This lineup has too many strikeouts; Severino struck out just 3 times in his 34 PAs down the stretch. That correlates to about 50 punch-outs over a 600-plate appearance season; that’s awesome. He was known for years for his defense, not his bat, so if he can provide even competent ABs he could be a starter. So i’m up for saving money on the FA market (where the catcher ranks are thin and the prices will get bid up badly as a result). Now, I could absolutely see us re-signing Wilson Ramos to an incentive-laden deal to keep him in house and hopefully get a good second half out of him. Why not? If he signs for $5-6M (basically his salary this year) and then has games played incentives that could take him up to $7 or $8M why wouldn’t he do that here instead of elsewhere? We go into the season with Severino and Lobaton with Kieboom in AAA and when Ramos shows up we (finally?) cut bait on Lobaton and have the two remaining guys platoon. I’d be onboard with that plan.

Loogy: Why spend money here? Solis and Perez ably fill the need. Do we need a third lefty in the pen at the expense of one of the aforementioned righties? I liked Rzepczynski this year; would he re-sign for reasonable dollars? Would you want him back? There’s several interesting names on the FA list; maybe one of them can be had for cheap.

What can we get in Trade versus buying on the FA market? Payroll implications?

I suspect that Gonzalez can fetch some seriously valuable resources. He’s an innings eating 4th starter who probably thrives in a pitcher’s park and is significantly less expensive at $12M/year than what something comparable costs on the FA market this year. So can he fetch maybe one MLB-ready player that fits a need above plus maybe one decent prospect? Is that too much?

Espinosa probably fetches less, unless you can get a GM to fall in love with his power/defense combo and somehow miss his BA and his K rate. By way of comparison, Yunel Escobar (a lesser defender with less power but more contact) fetched us two upper-level pitching prospects in Trevor Gott and Michael Brady (by upper-level I mean AA/AAA level, not top 100 prospects). I’d guess that Espinosa could fetch a bit more since he plays a premium position. So that could end up being more of the needs above plus maybe an additional prospect.

But who knows what we can and cannot get. In Mike Rizzo we trust when it comes to trades; no matter how much we bitch about prospects heading out the door, you’re really hard pressed to find a trade where Rizzo got the short end of the bargain or “lost” the deal. So lets see what he can do.

Payroll implications. I think we could get a $20M/yr corner OF slugger, a former closer at like $6M/year, resign Ramos at $5M, find a utility infielder in the Drew $3M/year range, and then sign a couple of guys to $1.25M conditional deals like what Belisle and Heisey got and fit right into the $145M payroll budget, even after arbitration raises.

Well; that’s a lot to argue about. Maybe I should have split this up. But let the discussions begin!

I was emailing with infrequent commenter “Old Man” (aka, my Dad) about the upcoming game one match-up and I said something along the lines of, “Well the Nats are in trouble because their two most important hitters are both hurt and lefty.”

Well, why go by biased observations when you can go to the stats? Here’s the career stat lines for each of our projected game 1 starters against Clayton Kershaw:

Harper: 1 for 15; ok, that’s not good.

Murphy: 6 for 19 with 2 homers; not bad, .316 avg, .947 OPS

Werth: 10 for 35 for a .286/.359/.457 line. not bad again

Rendon: 5 for 16; .313 but they are all singles; no power.

Espinosa: 1 for 17; no surprise there

Zimmerman: 7 for 22 but with no power for .318

Lobaton; 0 for 8; again, no surprise.

Turner: never faced Kershaw but his career lefty split shows consistent average versus his Righty split but significantly less power; 13 of his 14 career homers have come against righties.

So honestly; those aren’t half bad numbers against Kershaw all in all. Murphy, Werth, Rendon and Zimmerman all about .300 against him. Maybe you work your lineup differently as a result; maybe drop Harper down a bit and stack the top of the order with those who have had success:

Also keep in mind: Kershaw has a 4.59 post season ERA. Its the playoffs: anything can happen. Last year for example he gave up 3 runs in 6 2/3rds in game one of the NLDS to take the loss then completely shut down the Mets in Game 4 on three days rest for the win … but the Mets did enough against the Dodger’s big two to take the series and move on.

Yeah its a tough match-up for the Nats, or anyone. Kershaw shut them down in LA in June, giving up 1 run in 7. Scherzer somehow missed the Dodgers in both their season series this year; funny how nobody points that fact out when they talk about how the Dodgers beat the Nats 5 of 6 this year. The Nats used these 6 pitchers against the Dodgers: Petit, Roark, Ross in LA in June, then Lopez, Gonzalez and Strasburg in DC. The one win? Surprise; it was with lefty Gonzalez on the mound. I won’t make too much of this, since the Dodgers used 15 different starters this year and its frankly amazing they still won 91 games. That and the fact that the Nats missed their #3 Kenta Maeda in both series.

It could have been worse; it could have been this. Photo credit unknown.

Its been a greek tragedy the last few days in Nats town. Stephen Strasburg (you know, that guy who we just paid $175M for the next 30 years with deferred payments) clutches his elbow in his first game back after hitting the D/L for a different “elbow soreness” issue. Nats town fears the worst. MRI comes back and its “just” a Flexor Mass Strain. They say it isn’t going to be season ending but…

But we have some rather recent and close-to-home examples to use to gauge his D/L time out:

(h/t to Nationals101 on Twitter): Andrew Miller, who strained it in June 2015 against the Nats and missed about a month (injury on 6/10/15, next appearance 7/8/15).

So, best case he takes a couple of week off, it magically feels better, we shoot him up with cortisone and toradol (Hey they’re both legal!) and run merrily into the NLDS (not likely).

Worst case, he has to have a surgical procedure to clean stuff up and he’s ready for April 2017.

Most likely case, the conservative Nats management team shuts him down for the season (he is after all due $175M … and it’d be kind of foolish to risk that kind of investment for one playoff appearance) since it seems like its at least a month of rest.

In the mean time, the Nats have a playoff series to plan for. Now what do we do?

Scherzer, Roark, Gonzalez are all healthy and ready to go.

Who is the 4th starter? Instead of arguing about whether we take Joe Ross or Gio Gonzalez, are we now asking ourselves who makes that 4th start? Do we think Joe Ross is going to be ready? I dunno; I certainly hope so but we’re out of minor league games for him to rehab in and I havn’t heard much about his progress. Assuming Ross isn’t ready to go either … Are we to the point where we’re wondering who is better, Yusmeiro Petit, A.J. Cole, Reynaldo Lopez or Lucas Giolito?

Pros/Cons of these options:

Petit: was brought in to be the spot starter so he should be able to handle this. But he’s been a bit shakey lately; his ERA has risen from 2.72 to 3.90 in just his last 8 appearances, which include a 5 run implosion against Colorado to blow a game the Nats had come back to tie late, an appearance in early August against Atlanta where he couldn’t record an out, and a bunch of other unclean appearances.

Cole: he has shown signs of life (looking awesome in New York against our closest rival) and then signs of ineptitude (giving up a 3-run homer to the only guy on the Phillies who could hurt him).

Lopez: great fastball … and great hittability.

Giolito: well, we don’t need to go into the pro- and anti-Giolito arguments, do we?

I dunno; who among that list are you thinking is best suited for it?

Are you thinking outside the box instead? Mat Latos? I dunno; do you think he’s ready to go? Would you think that to be a slap in the face of all the guys who busted their butts with this organization for years to have a post-season start opportunity given to a guy they signed off the street two months ago?

Me? I think you give the start to Lopez. I don’t trust Petit, Cole seems too hittable, and Giolito needs an off-season to get his mechanics (and his head) straight.

(post-publishing update; just saw this at NJ: we know it isn’t going to be Bronson Arroyo… who just couldn’t come back and likely faces the end of his career).

We’ve clearly seen some middle relief issues lately, despite nearly sweeping a 4-game set in Atlanta this past weekend. And one of the issues we’ve been continually discussing is our left-handed relief options.

We traded Felipe Rivero. Oliver Perez has a 5.61 ERA. Sammy Solis just had an MRI on his left shoulder. Matt Grace has nice looking AAA numbers, but got shellacked last year (2.00 whip in 26 innings) during a brief call-up. Nick Lee was so ineffective this year that he passed completely through waivers when we DFA’d him off the 40-man. We just paid cash for twice-TJ survivor and ex Nat Sean Burnett, whose AAA numbers look good but is now on his fourth organization of 2016.

Do we have a LOOGY problem?

Well, maybe.

I constantly have to remind myself of this sentence: “You don’t have to be left-handed in order to get lefties out.” That and this sentence: “If your lefty splits are good … then you’re still a good LOOGY option.”

Here’s the 2016 versus lefty splits for every reliever on our 40-man, RHP or LHP. And then lets add in some of the call-up candidates just for fun… (all numbers as of 8/21/16’s Atlanta game via baseball-reference.com):

Right Handed reliever options

Melancon: .202/.253/.274 for an .527 OPS; as you’d expect, an elite closer gets both lefties and righties out.

Treinen: .211/.357/.351 for an .708 OPS. Not bad.

Kelley: .250/.294/.609 for an .903 OPS. Not good.

Petit: .261/.327/.511 for an .838 OPS. Again, not really that good, but then again that’s not what we’re asking him to do generally.

Belisle: .150/.203/.267 for an .470 OPS. Wow; that’s better than any of our lefties.

Glover: minimal stats in MLB; for 2016 he had a .161 BAA in AAA, .250 in AA and .143 in High-A for lefty splits (which are kind of hard to come by at milb.com). That looks promising, but he seems to be more effective against righties.

Left Handed reliever options

Perez: .217/.321/.377 for an .698 OPS. Its his rightly split that’s killing him.

Solis: .200/.279/.273 for an .551 OPS. Awesome … if we can get him back healthy.

Sean Burnett: Again, minor league splits are harder to come by, but Burnett had a .150 BAA against in 12 IP in his longest AAA stint of the year.

Bryan Harper: .161 BAA in AAA this year, even better .091 while in AA. And it’d be cool to have him on a roster with his brother. But he’s on the D/L right now.

Matt Grace: .207 BAA in AAA this year … but as noted above he struggled in his 2015 audition.

Rivero, by the way, has this for a lefty split in 2016: .325/.424/.429 for an .852 OPS. A .325 BAA; no wonder they were willing to part with him. He was a lefty who couldn’t get lefties out.

What if we thought outside the box a bit?

Reynaldo Lopez: .180/.250/.340 for an .590 OPS. Interesting; we’ve already talked at length about Lopez being a fire-baller out of the pen for a post-season team and his lefty splits are good.

Lucas Gioilto: .269/.406/.462 for an .868 OPS; not nearly as impressive.

Aaron Laffey: just a .254 BAA in AAA this year in a swing-man role.

Nick Lee: the aforementioned struggling lefty is the only other lefty in the minors above High-A; he’s got a decent .214 BAA against lefties in AA … but his overall ERA/Whip is ugly; 4.73 and 1.77,

I didn’t go to High-A, where we have a couple of lefty prospects but they’re no where near consideration for a call-up.

So, we need Solis back; he’s the closest thing we have to a matchup lefty who we can count on. But clearly Belisle’s numbers make him a matchup option too, despite his being a rightly. It reminds me of when we had Tyler Clippard, who always had stellar lefty splits. Perez’s split line isn’t great; I feel like we should be pushing him almost all the way to the mop-up/Petit role right now.

Are you concerned though? On a whole, the Nats bullpen has been one of the best in all of baseball. Are the falterings lately just due to a too many innings thanks to a couple of bad starter outings?