At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

Tarpley. (Getty)

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher

Infielders

Outfielders

Rotation

Bullpen

Gary Sanchez

1B Voit

LF Gardner

Happ

CL Chapman

2B Torres/Wade

CF Hicks

Paxton

SU Betances

SS Torres/Wade

RF Judge

Sabathia

SU Green

3B Andujar

OF Stanton

Severino

MR Holder

BENCH

Tanaka

MR Kahnle

C Romine

DISABLED LIST

MR Tarpley

IF Alberto

Ellsbury

Heller

LG Cessa

UTIL Locastro

Gregorius

Montgomery

LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

Twenty-three different position players came to the plate at least once for the Yankees this year, and we here at River Avenue Blues endeavor to give you a little something about each and every one of them in this series of reviews. These are the guys that opened the season in the organization and, for a variety of reasons, ended up playing relatively minor roles.

Brandon Drury

The Yankees have acquired quite a bit of talent from the Diamondbacks over the last five years; so much so that a deal between the two teams feels like an automatic win for the good guys. They’ve made five deals in that span, with the Yankees acquiring Brandon McCarthy, Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Clippard, and Drury, and giving up Vidal Nuno, Peter O’Brien, Shane Greene, Vicente Campos, Taylor Widener, and Nick Solak (the last two in the deal for Drury). That’s 17.3 WAR in, and 3.4 WAR out, for those of you scoring at home.

But I digress.

Drury was acquired by the Yankees in February as a part of a three-team trade with the Rays and Diamondbacks. The aforementioned Solak went to Tampa, and Widener went to the desert; and both spent the entirety of 2018 at Double-A in their respective organizations. It’s worth noting that both performed well in Double-A, to be sure, but neither is a standout prospect.

For his part, Drury opened the season as the Yankees third baseman, starting seven of the team’s first eight games and pinch-hitting in the other. He hit a more than serviceable .217/.333/.391 (101 wRC+) in that span, and it seemed as though the team had found a perfectly adequate infielder. And when he was placed on the disabled list with migraines on April 7, he was expected back in relatively short order.

It didn’t work out that way, of course. Miguel Andujar took over at the hot corner in Drury’s absence, and hit the ground running. And when Drury’s stint on the disabled list was over on May 14, he was optioned to Triple-A Scranton, where he would spend the next six-plus weeks tearing the cover off of the ball. It was clear that he didn’t belong there, but it was also clear that they didn’t have room for him on the big club.

Drury was called back up on June 29, and bounced around the infield for ten days before being sent back down. He only hit .136/.174/.182 in that stretch, so it was difficult to fault the Yankees. He came back up on July 20, and was essentially done as a Yankee on July 24, when he exited the game after being hit in the hand with a pitch. Drury was dealt to the Blue Jays (along with Billy McKinney) for J.A. Happ a couple of days later.

All told, Drury hit .176/.263/.275 (49 wRC+) in 57 PA in pinstripes. Injuries and superior options at second and third base hindered his chances of finding a role with the team before he really had a chance, and his bags were packed at the deadline. He followed that up by hitting .154/.241/.231 (33 wRC+) with the Blue Jays, albeit in just 29 PA as his season ended early due to a fracture in his left hand.

Clint Frazier

(Duane Burleson/Getty)

The 2017-18 off-season could not have been much fun for Frazier, who spent his time seeing his name in trade rumors, recovering from an oblique injury, and getting a much-publicized haircut. And seeing the Yankees add Giancarlo Stanton to an already crowded outfield picture was probably a bit disconcerting, as well. I don’t want to editorialize too much, but I can’t help but feel that he was relieved to start playing baseball again when February rolled around.

Unfortunately, Spring Training wasn’t any better, as Frazier suffered a concussion after crashing into the outfield wall, and missed the first several weeks of the season as a result. He was activated from the disabled list on May 1 and optioned to Triple-A, where he hit .362/.423/.702 in 52 PA before being called-up for a double-header on May 19. He started one game, going 1-for-2 with two walks, and was sent back down to Triple-A.

Frazier spent the next two months bouncing between Triple-A and the show; he obliterated the minor leagues, posting a .311/.389/.574 slash line in 216 PA, and was adequate in 41 big league PA, posting a 113 wRC+. Unfortunately, the lingering post-concussion effects never really let up, and his season was over in August. And given how mightily the Yankees struggled to fill the void left by Aaron Judge’s injury, Frazier missed a big opportunity, to boot.

Frazier’s status is one of the low-key but still important storylines of this off-season. He’s still only 24 with oodles of talent, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the last two years, and concussions are tricky at best. Moreover, the Yankees still have a crowded outfield, even if Brett Gardner hadn’t re-signed. Frazier is ostensibly healthy and resting now, but this may well be another winter of trade rumors.

Kyle Higashioka

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Higashioka entered the 2018 season as the team’s third-string catcher, and the expectation that he wouldn’t have much of anything to do in the majors this year barring some calamity. There was a calamity, of sorts, in Gary Sanchez’s injury-riddled and disappointing season, which resulted in Higashioka spending about three months on the Yankees roster. Unfortunately for him, that meant a lot of sitting on the bench if deference to Austin Romine.

The 28-year-old backstop spent most of the first three months of the season in Triple-A, where he struggled mightily. He slashed just .196/.272/.337 through 52 games, which was a far cry from his strong performances there in 2016 (131 wRC+) and 2017 (113 wRC+). There was no clear path to playing time for Higashioka for most of this time, and he certainly wasn’t forcing the issue.

When Sanchez hit the disabled list with a groin injury on June 25, Higashioka was called-up. He served in a timeshare with Romine, starting nine of the team’s nineteen games in this stretch, and he slashed an intriguing .167/.242/.500 in 33 PA. Higashioka had the first three hits of his major-league career during this stint … all of which were home runs.

Higashioka was sent back down when Sanchez returned from the DL, and was recalled when Sanchez aggravated the groin injury a few days later. He’d go on to spend the rest of the season with the team, picking up eleven more starts along the way. Higashioka finished the season hitting .167/.241/.319 (51 wRC+) in 79 PA.

There were some reasons to be excited about Higashioka after his dominance of Triple-A in 2016, but that ship has likely sailed at this point. He’ll be 29 in April, and the team clearly prefers Romine off of the bench. That doesn’t mean that he can’t be a useful bench piece – it just might not be for the Yankees.

Billy McKinney

(Joel Auerbach/Getty)

McKinney was acquired alongside Gleyber Torres way back in 2016, and was poised for a real opportunity with the Yankees when Frazier, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury went down with injuries. He earned his first big league start (and hit) on March 30 … and was placed on the DL with a left shoulder strain after crashing into the wall on March 31.

By the time McKinney was activated on May 24, the Yankees outfield rotation was set, and he headed to Triple-A. He flashed some power there, slashing .226/.299/.495 (120 wRC+) with 13 HR in 234 PA, but his tenure with the team ended before he could claw his way back to the majors when he was sent to Toronto in the Happ trade.

McKinney spent his first month with his new organization in the minors, but he was called-up on August 18 (against the Yankees), and spent the rest of the year starting for the Blue Jays. He hit .252/.320/.470 (114 wRC+) in 128 PA down the stretch, and should have one of the corner outfield spots locked-up for 2019.

Jace Peterson

Not-so-great baserunning, Jace. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Peterson spent a whopping 112 days in the Yankees organization, a tenure that included one game in Triple-A and three at the highest level. That was long enough to have a play for the team’s highlight reels, though, in the form of this excellent catch against the Orioles:

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Peterson was claimed off of waivers by those same Orioles on April 24, and his Yankees career was over. He did hit .300 with the team, though (in 11 PA), so he has something to tell his grandchildren one day.

The 28-year-old utility player did find a good home in Baltimore, though, playing all over the field and appearing in 93 games. He hit just .195/.308/.325, but he stole 13 bases in 15 attempts … so, there’s that.

Shane Robinson

(Patrick McDermott/Getty)

The aforementioned injuries to Clint Frazier, Ellsbury, and Judge as well as the trade of McKinney paved the way for Robinson to make 17 starts for the Yankees this year. That in and of itself is a fine argument both for how necessary depth is, and how quickly it can disappear. And it haunts me to this day.

Robinson was signed by the Yankees way back in February to serve as Triple-A depth. When he was signed, he was something like ninth or tenth on the organization’s outfield depth chart, and for good reason. The now-34-year-old was a Quadruple-A player, having spent the previous eight years as an up-and-down guy for the Cardinals, Twins, and Angels, racking up a .226/.294/.297 line in 795 PA along the way. He’s the sort of player every organization needs, but doesn’t really want to see at the highest level.

He was called-up in early April for a two-game cup of coffee, going 1-for-3 with two walks in two games before being sent back down. He spent the rest of April through late-July in Triple-A (and missing all of June), posting a .628 OPS in 192 PA. But Judge’s injury and McKinney’s trade mere days beforehand forced the Yankees hand, and Robinson was recalled on July 28.

Robinson played in 23 of the team’s Judge-less games, starting sixteen. He hit .130/.167/.217 in that time, which thankfully (mercifully?) came to an end when Andrew McCutchen was acquired on August 31. Robinson spent the rest of the season in purgatory, and became a free agent on October 10.

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

It is official: Luis Severino will start the 2018 AL Wild Card Game tomorrow night. Aaron Boone made the announcement at this afternoon’s workout at Yankee Stadium. “I think he’s ready for this. Hopefully he can get us off to a good start tomorrow. When he’s pitching at his best, he’ll be the best pitcher on the field tomorrow,” said Boone.

Severino last pitched last Tuesday, so he’ll go into the Wild Card Game on seven days rest. He’s thrown two bullpens since then to prepare for tomorrow’s start. The Yankees skipped Severino’s start Sunday — he didn’t even throw a token tune-up inning or anything — which was a pretty good indication he would get the ball in the Wild Card Game.

“It means a lot that they trust me,” Severino said this afternoon. “I feel rested. I feel like I can do a good job … I just want to win. If I go four innings and the bullpen comes in and gets it done, (I don’t care). I just want to win and move on.”

Severino of course started the Wild Card Game last season, and it was a disaster. Three runs and one out. The 2018 Athletics are much better than the 2017 Twins, and the A’s did put a hurtin’ on Severino last month (six runs in 2.2 innings), but he is the Yankees’ best chance at a dominant bat-missing start. How long will his leash be? I guess we’ll find out.

The Yankees and Athletics do not have to submit their official Wild Card Game rosters until tomorrow morning. Here are some other notes from today’s workout:

Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and Lance Lynn will all be on the Wild Card Game roster, Boone announced. They’re going to carry ten pitchers. Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade will be on the roster as well. Wade will be the designated pinch-runner. Based on the math, it appears Greg Bird and Ronald Torreyes will not be on the Wild Card Game roster.

Stephen Tarpley is still with the Yankees — that’s not nothing, most September call-ups are sent home after the end of the regular season — and he told Lindsey Adler he does not expect to be on the Wild Card Game roster. He is likely to be on the ALDS roster should the Yankees advance, however. That makes sense. Matt Olson is the only LOOGY worthy hitter in the A’s lineup and he’d be lifted for pinch-hitter Mark Canha (152 wRC+ vs. LHP).

Sonny Gray is not on the Wild Card Game roster. “I’m just hanging out,” he told Susan Slusser. No surprise here. Gray pitched too poorly for too long to be on the roster. That said, he’ll remain with the Yankees in case an injury replacement is needed at some point this postseason.

Based on today’s information, it appears this will be the 25-man roster the Yankees take into the Wild Card Game. Again, the official roster does not have to be submitted until tomorrow morning.

Catchers (3)

Infielders (7)

Outfielders (5)

Starters (4)

Relievers (6)

Sanchez

Andujar

Gardner

Happ

Betances

Romine

Gregorius

Hicks

Lynn

Britton

Higashioka

Hechavarria

Judge

Severino

Chapman

Torres

McCutchen

Tanaka

Green

Voit

Stanton

Holder

Wade

Robertson

Walker

The Athletics have not yet announced their starting pitcher for tomorrow’s game — we should find that out later today, when they have their workout at Yankee Stadium — though all indications are they will bullpen the game. Liam Hendriks is the obvious candidate to be the opener.

Update: Hendriks is indeed starting (opening) for the Athletics tomorrow, the team announced. It’s likely to be a one inning and done appearance like pretty much all his starts down the stretch.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat

Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher

Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder

Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Starters

Relievers

Sanchez

Andujar

Gardner

Happ

Betances

Romine

Bird

Judge

Severino

Britton

Hechavarria

McCutchen

Tanaka

Chapman

Torres

Stanton

Green

Voit

Hicks/Wade

Holder

Walker

Robertson

Didi/Toe

Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.

Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.

Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

Five days ago September call-ups arrived and the Yankees and every other team brought up extra player from the minors. The Yankees are carrying 31 players on the active roster (15 position players, 16 pitchers) and it’ll be 32 players once Didi Gregorius returns from the disabled list, which could be as soon as Friday. No more worrying about running out of relievers or playing guys out of position.

Once Gregorius returns the Yankees will have seven players on their bench, and, on any given night, these will be the seven players and their roles:

Backup Catcher: Austin Romine

Third Catcher: Kyle Higashioka

Utility Infielder: Ronald Torreyes

Defensive Specialist: Adeiny Hechavarria

Designated Speedster: Tyler Wade

Pinch-Hitter, Maybe?: Greg Bird

Neil Walker: Neil Walker

Walker has somewhat predictably cooled of late as his playing time has decreased, though at this point I think he remains the team’s top pinch-hitting option against right-handed batters. I know Bird almost hit that pinch-hit grand slam the other day, but his bat still looks frighteningly slow, and I’m not really sure how you can send him up to the plate in a big spot as your top pinch-hitting option.

Even if you consider Bird a good pinch-hitting option, the Yankees are still short a right-handed bat on the bench. Walker is a switch-hitter who is hitting .174/.237/.246 (30 wRC+) against lefties this year, and his struggles against southpaws date back several seasons (career 86 wRC+ vs. LHP), so it’s not small sample size noise. He’s a switch-hitter in name only. That leaves, uh, Romine or Torreyes as the top righty bench bat? Yikes.

This isn’t a minor detail either. It has come into play the last two nights. On Monday, with the Yankees down three and two runners on base in the seventh inning, Walker was sent up as a pinch-hitter against a righty, and the A’s countered with lefty Ryan Buchter. Buchter retired Walker and Brett Gardner, a .250/.321/.339 (83 wRC+) hitter against lefties this year, to snuff out the rally.

Last night Buchter was brought in to face Gardner with a runner on base in a one-run game and the Yankees had no countermove. That one actually worked out okay in a weird way. Buchter picked Gleyber Torres off first base to end the inning, then Gardner started the game-tying rally the next inning with an infield single into the 5.5 hole. That doesn’t seem like a sustainable strategy, Gardner beating out infield singles against lefties.

The right-handed pinch-hitter down the stretch was supposed to be Luke Voit, but instead he’s in the starting lineup because he’s mashing dingers (and Bird has been terrible). Having Walker to pinch-hit against righties and Voit to pinch-hit against lefties would be fine. Instead, the Yankees have Walker to pinch-hit against righties, no one obvious to pinch-hit against lefties, and Bird without a clear role.

The Yankees only have one seemingly viable right-handed pinch-hitting option in Triple-A: Ryan McBroom, a first baseman by trade who played some outfield this year, and hit .302/.348/.458 (125 wRC+) with 15 homers between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton this year. The Yankees got him from the Blue Jays in the Rob Refsnyder trade last year. They could bring McBroom up and let him take his hacks against lefties as a pinch-hitter.

Or maybe this isn’t a big deal at all. Aaron Judge started swinging a bat earlier this week and is inching closer to a return, and once he does get back, the Yankees will have five players (Gardner, Judge, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton) for four lineup spots (three outfield plus DH). If Gardner is in the lineup, that means one of the other four guys will be on the bench and available to pinch-hit against a lefty.

Until Judge returns (if Judge returns?), the Yankees don’t have an obvious pinch-hitting option against a lefty pitcher, and it burned them two nights ago. It nearly burned them last night. Maybe bringing up McBroom as a short-term bench bat until Judge returns makes sense, just to have that power righty bat on the bench. Otherwise the best option is probably sending Torreyes up there, and hoping he contact bombs the pitcher and finds outfield grass.

So these last 20 hours or so have sucked, eh? I’d say so. Imagine if the Yankees weren’t 28 games over .500. Anyway, look forward, not backward. Tonight the Yankees will try to win a game at stupid Tropicana Field, where they remain winless this season. Four games, four losses. Getting annoying.

On the mound tonight is Masahiro Tanaka, who’s looked pretty good in his two starts back from his dual hamstring injuries. Pitched into the seventh inning against the Indians last time out. The #obligatoryhomer is still a thing. As long as he can limit the damage otherwise, the Yankees will be okay. Get a win, then try to win the series tomorrow. Here are the starting lineups:

It is humid and raining in St. Petersburg, so it’s a good night to play in a dome. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates:In case you missed it earlier, Gary Sanchez was placed on the 10-day DL with a right groin strain. Kyle Higashioka was called up in a corresponding move. Sanchez reaggravated the groin last night and Aaron Boone said he’s going to miss “weeks.” How many? Not sure. But this won’t be a short-term thing. Sucks … Aaron Hicks is “a little banged” up, which is why he’s out of the lineup. Apparently he hit the dirt and second base hard in the ninth inning last night … Gleyber Torres (hip) is playing his final rehab game tonight, and is scheduled to rejoin the Yankees tomorrow.