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After the deluge, the real troubles begin

A unique centre studying the impact of floods on people is at risk if funding
is concentrated. Anna Fazackerley reports

What happens to flood victims in the UK when the water levels have gone down
and the news camera crews have left? Is it fair to use economic considerations
in deciding which areas of the country should receive flood protection? And
will the risks of flooding increase in the future?

These are the sorts of human issues that researchers at the University of
Middlesex Flood Hazard Research Centre grapple with -and this makes it unique.
As the centre's director, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, says: "We are the only
specialist flood research centre that has this particular social and economic
policy dimension." That special perspective, however, may not be enough to
ensure the centre's survival if the government proceeds with plans to
concentrate research funding.

During the past five years, the UK has suffered periods of particularly intense
flooding. The immediate consequences are well known but the long-term effects
get little attention.

Sue Tapsell, principal lecturer at the centre, is leading research into the
"intangible aspects of flooding". She says assessments of the damage caused by
floods have traditionally overlooked the impact on individuals' lives.

"When the floodwaters go down, that's often when people's problems really
begin," she says. "There are psychological effects in the long term.

Getting your house back in order and dealing with insurance can cause more
stress than economic losses."

According to the Environment Agency, one of the centre's key research clients,
about 5 million people live in flood-risk areas in England and Wales. The
centre is carrying out a project under the Office of Science and Technology's
Foresight scheme to assess how this risk may change over the next 30 to 100
years.

One consideration will be climate change. Tapsell says some areas will be less
likely to suffer flooding as temperatures rise. But there may be a higher risk
in parts of northern England, East Anglia and, possibly, the Southwest. The
centre will advise the government on what it should do to mitigate future flood
damage.

Providing policy guidance is old hat to the centre -it has been doing this for
the government since 1973. Research manager Colin Green feels this is what
makes the centre indispensable. "There is a great benefit from being involved
in real choices and real activity," he says. "We should be trying to leave the
world a better place than we found it, which means getting involved in
policy."

But it is not enough for the centre to just do short-term consultancy work for
government departments and agencies, Penning-Rowsell says. The researchers want
to develop theory and to look at the issues from a long-term perspective, but
it is this fundamental research that is under threat.

"If you wanted to put a finger on why we need the research assessment exercise
support, it is because much of our research needs to be long term.

If we don't have long-term money, there is a danger that we will get blown
about by the week-to-week demands of research consultancy," he says.

His small research team is enthusiastic. Clare Johnson, a senior research
fellow, says: "We're here because we love what we do. We could go elsewhere,
but it's the critical mass we've got here that gives us the edge."

But the researchers fear the consequences of more concentration of research
funding. The research group has risen from a 2 rating in the 1992 RAE to a 3b
in 1996 and, finally, a 4 in 2001. Penning-Rowsell says: "That's a major
advancement. If they decide not to fund 4s, that will be a kick in the
teeth."

A reduction -or loss -of RAE cash will make life difficult. "We're not very big
and we are very pressured," Johnson says. "To do that extra work without the
funding would mean you basically couldn't have a life -you would have to work
seven days a week."

More seriously, she says, a withdrawal of government research funding for
4-rated departments will kill the centre outright. The researchers are coming
to terms with the possibility that they may fall outside the government's
vision for research. "There is so much uncertainty," Johnson says. "We are
trying to put ourselves into a position to compete for funding, but we realise
we are a specialist centre doing specialist things."

Green argues that closure of the research centre will be a big loss. "False
modesty aside, if we were wiped out, things could be done, but it wouldn't be
as good," he says.

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