Hold that thought...for another 30-40 years

Until the 1970s, the U.S. soccer team was not so good. Since then, its rise has been inexorable, as the chart shows. The cumulative winning percentage of the national team eclipsed .500 for the first time in 2006, during a spectacular decade that saw the squad reach the World Cup quarterfinals in 2002. But when will the U.S. actually lift the trophy? To answer that, we let the numbers do the kicking. Since 1970, the cumulative winning percentage of the eventual World Cup winner going into the tournament has averaged .669; the highest was .728 (Brazil, 2002), and the lowest was .625 (France, 1998). If we extrapolate the remarkably consistent progression of Team USA, it should take another 30 years (2042) for the team to break the minimum Cup threshold -- and another decade to achieve even odds. America's soccer moment is coming. Although, look out -- the Chinese probably won't be far behind. -- Stefan Szymanski, co-author of Soccernomics