About Me

Jim is the author of eight novels, three memoirs and four business books. He made a covered wagon and horseback trip across Texas to retrace the journey his ancestors had made two generations earlier and wrote Biscuits Across the Brazos to chronicle the trip. He traveled the team roping circuit as an amateur and worked roundups on big ranches. Working beside real cowboys sent him back to writing. Using lessons he had learned from more than 10,000 client interviews over thirty years and memories from his rural Texas roots, Jim published five novels in his Follow the Rivers series and three in the Tee Jessup/Riverby series. He has also published three memoirs and story collections.He has been a Writers Digest International Book Contest Finalist.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

In your recent articles about Donald Trump and the American
economy, you seem to indicate that we are on the right path and most things are
hunky-dory. Your only qualifier was your dissatisfaction with some of the
“shenanigans” going on in DC. Shenanigans seems a pretty weak description.

I have read your books and given them as gifts. But these articles
overlook or gloss over some very important facts and present a Utopian view of
what’s happening in our country.

You challenged your readers to refute any of your “facts”
and stated we should “put on our dome-shaped hats and go stand in the corner”
if we did. You expressed astonishment at how many of us dunces “cannot tell the
difference between fact and opinion”. Pretty harsh and, I think, wrong.

I mostly agree with you on the Donald, though I am not sure
you understand why he is so popular. I think conservatives are sick of Republicans’
“rollover and play dead” strategy and surrendering without a fight to Obama.
And we are sick of political correctness and the whiners who constantly look
for some word or phrase to offend them. It’s keeping us from discussing
important issues facing this country.

Let’s take your facts one at a time:

The dollar is the
world’s reserve currency.

Correct, but it is under attack from China and there is the
possibility, however remote, that situation could change. Some experts believe
it is China’s intent to displace the buck.

The US military is the
primary defender of the free world.

Correct, but our ability to continue in that role has been
severely diminished during the Obama administration. Our military is now at
pre-WW II levels, and in some cases, WW I levels. Real warrior leaders have
been replaced with politically correct ones who toe the White House line.

We now face the largest mass migration since the days of
Hitler and possibly in world history.

We have just negotiated (one can hardly describe what the
inept Obama/Kerry and their minions did as negotiation—capitulation is a better
description) an egregious, arrogant, and dangerous agreement with the world’s
leading sponsor of terrorism. And we got virtually nothing in return.

China, Russia, and Iran appear to be moving to squeeze us
out of Europe and the Middle East and Putin is clearly trying to splinter NATO.
Russia has taken over Crimea, is in the process of taking Ukraine, is building military
bases in Syria, and sold defensive weapons to Iran to limit our military
options.

And then there is China with its cyber attacks, building
islands in the South China Sea, buying up our debt.

Our allies no longer trust us and our enemies no longer
respect us. And let’s not forget North Korea, with nukes we paid for. And what
about our inept attempts to defeat ISIS?

Our banks have never
been stronger.

Many pundits said the
same thing just before the 2008 crisis. You name only big banks in your
analysis, without mentioning the negative impact of Dodd-Frank on community
banks. None have been started since 2011. And many big banks took huge chunks of bailout money from taxpayers.

The U.S. economy grew at 3.7% in the most recent quarter. That’s twice the rate of growth in Europe
and four times that of Japan.

Have you noticed that the numbers we are fed on GDP are often
revised downward with little mention in the press? And 3.7% is not all that
strong after seven years of tepid growth and certainly not strong enough to
handle our enormous debt. Comparing it to the dismal numbers of Europe and
Japan seems to prove nothing except that those two nations are in deep economic
turmoil. And aren’t their weak economies bad news for America, too?

Unemployment is at a
seven year low.

The U-3 measure of unemployment is meaningless. The press
should be ashamed for ever quoting it. U-3 does not count folks who have quit
looking for a job (given up) in the four weeks before the data are compiled.
How does one determine if a person has given up? Answer: you can’t. Is he still
unemployed? Answer: yes. The U-6 measure is more accurate and is still above
10%.

An even more important number is the labor participation
rate. It’s at a four decade low. Almost 40% of our workforce is not working. The
number of people dependent on the government for subsistence (welfare, food
stamps, etc.) is at an all time high and growing at an unsustainable rate.

The federal deficit as
a percentage of GDP is at its lowest level in eight years.

That is a one-year statistic. I assume you know that the deficit
measures the excess of expenses over revenues for a single fiscal year. Comparing it to GDP during a period begun when
we were mired in a deep recession makes it virtually meaningless and certainly
nothing to boast about.

The important number is the total debt. I’m one of those
old-fashioned accountants that measures debt by our ability to pay it off. We’re close to $19 trillion now—an all-time
high. This president has now run up more debt than all other presidents
combined.

Debt has a tipping point. Ask Donald Trump. He had four
corporations to pass that tipping point.

And what about our unfunded liabilities? Many economists say
they are close to $180 trillion. That’s about $1.5 trillion per taxpayer. Nobody
really knows because the government does not book such debts as liabilities.
But they still have to be paid.

Since the 2008
financial crisis, stocks have nearly tripled.

There you go again, using historical lows to measure gains.
When you start low, it is easy to garner some impressive stats. I will grant
you that the stock market has performed well (until recently). I am still
invested. I used to tell my clients that I am always right about the markets, I
just may be off by a decade or two, or three.

Why am I invested when I see America headed in the wrong
direction? Because it is the only place where one has the best chance of
generating income. Investors are forced to take risks they would rather not
take during retirement years because our central bank has kept interest rates
at historic lows and effectively taken away most investment options other than
the stock market.

I also believe that the market is no longer primarily driven
by fundamentals. It is driven by interest rates and high-frequency trading. The
days of studying a company’s financials, its history, its products or services,
its place in the industry, and its management can be screwed up by a few
wet-behind-the-ears stock jockeys who are more interested in where the stock is
going in the next thirty seconds than in the next five years. Don’t believe
that? How else can you explain the panic caused when the Fed mentions a mere
quarter point rise in rates?

Perhaps when you a little older with a shorter time horizon,
you will better understand those of us (as well as many Trump supporters) who
want to change the direction of our country now, not ten years down the road.
We’re tired of political elites who seem to believe that you must control both
the White House and Congress to get anything done. History belies that silly
notion.

Educational attainment
in the country has never been higher.

I am not sure how one would go about measuring that and am
not sure even of the definition. However, I am deeply concerned about what our
young people are being taught in schools and colleges. Think socialism, class
warfare, and forced income redistribution. And SAT scores are on a steady
decline.

There are no class
distinctions or caste systems to hold citizens back from economic success.

Using the eight years you like to compare, class and race
divisions have taken a radical turn for the worse.

Americans have never
been richer. Last week, the Federal Reserve reported that U. S. household net
worth hit another all-time record of $85.7 trillion.

Ah yes, the ultra-secretive, unaudited Fed again. Having
prepared hundreds of personal financial statement for clients, I know it can be
a laborious process. How does the Fed know, for example, my net worth? I know
technology has changed the world, but hopefully, some things are still
secret.Also, even if net worth is at an
all time high, average income for the middle class is down.

In 2013, the U. S
surpassed Russia to become the world’s largest oil and gas producer.

That is definitely good news. However, because of the
government, we still have restrictions on our ability to take full advantage.
We have restrictions on finding, transporting (Keystone?) and exporting energy to
compete with OPEC and Russia and take our earned place as an energy superpower.

Inflation is
negligible.

How about those billions of dollars the Fed injected into
the economy? Will that increase the money supply? Isn’t one of the indicators
of inflation too many dollars chasing too few goods?

And the way we measure inflation has been changed so often
that the reported stats are no longer trustworthy (they no longer includes
"luxuries" like food or fuel, for example, because they keep showing pesky
increases). If something we buy goes up too much to satisfy their politics, the
bureaucrats just take it out of the equation.For example, the battery in my Jeep failed recently. I bought it six
years ago for $69 with a six year warranty. The replacement battery cost $140 with
a three year warranty. That’s 34% per year increase for half the battery life. Is
that inflation? And if you think that’s an anomaly, better think again.
Inflation is when things go up, and virtually everything I buy has gone up by
8-10% per year for a decade.

Gold has spent the
last four years looking like the last flight of the Hindenberg.

Using your own analogies about the future of stocks,
wouldn’t that be a strong indicator to buy gold?

And then, finally, you quote two technology gurus (your
description) and they say:

Violence is at an all
time low and personal freedoms at a historic high.

“All time” indicates forever, I suppose, but are they
talking about America or the world? The Economic Freedom Index shows America on
a steady decline, dropping to number twelve. Even Canada and Chile surpass us. And
violence—tell that to people in Chicago and most of America’s largest cities.

Groceries cost
thirteen times less today than in 1870.

1870? Really? Is that a meaningful stat? How about compared
to 2008? Been shopping lately?

Poverty has declined
more in the last fifty years than in the previous 500.

Poverty has increased in the last fifty years, not declined,
largely due to the War on Poverty. And were we keeping poverty records in 1515?
And if we were, wouldn’t most people be considered poverty-stricken by today’s
measures?

I suppose your article garnered so much attention because
Donald Trump was in the title and you tried to discredit his negative views on
the economy. Trump is a product of John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Barack Obama,
political correctness, and what an open border policy is doing to our great
country. Americans are hungry for anyone who will speak truth to power and be
willing to take the slings and arrows sure to come their way (Trump, apparently
can dish it out but can’t take it).

If you are giving advice to Trump supporters, you would have
been better off to mention that he believes single payer healthcare works when
it clearly does not, or that he was in favor of the disastrous 2008 bailout. Or
maybe you could highlight the four corporate bankruptcies.A lot of very competent people have declared
personal bankruptcy or headed corporations that declared it. But four times in
the same industry?

Trump even boasts about his timing and expertise in taking
advantage of bankruptcy laws while employees and debtors took it in the shorts.
Only a narcissist would boast about that, and we have had a narcissist as
president. How’s that working out? Narcissism is a dangerous trait for the
leader of anything.

Statistics are strange things. Much of what I stated here is
my interpretation of stats or facts. The difference is that I admit it. You did
not. You stated unequivocally that your statements were facts, when in many
cases they were your interpretations of facts.

I applaud your optimism, but it seems to suggest
complacence. If Thomas Jefferson did not say, “The price of liberty is eternal
vigilance”, he should have. Many of us like a little vigilance mixed with our
optimism. Or maybe you were just "drinking that sweet bubble-up and eating that rainbow stew".

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

During twenty-plus years of writing, the question of “Why?”
comes up pretty often. Folks understand the business books I wrote in the
beginning, but friends don’t understand why a guy who spent most of his career dealing
in numbers would decide to try his hand at novels.

Most of the time, I ask that question of myself. I have
tried ad nauseam to explain to myself why I write. As Clayton Delaney told his
young protégé Tom T. Hall about a career in music, “Ain’t no money in it. It’ll
lead you to an early grave.”

I have written quite a bit about my admiration for
songwriters. They can tell a story in a single page that often takes a novelist
a whole book to tell. One of my favorite songwriters is Kris Kristofferson. He
can’t sing too well and is a mediocre actor, but he is one heck of a
songwriter.

Who doesn’t hum when someone mentions Help Me Make It Through the Night, or Sunday Mornin’ Coming Down, For
the Good Times, or Me and Bobby McGee?
What most don’t know is that his best- selling song was Why Me, commonly known as Why
Me, Lord?.

I could sing along with most of the lyrics to the song, but
I never really paid much attention to the meaning of the words until about a
year ago. I don’t remember why or exactly when I began to concentrate on the
lyrics and their meaning. All I know is that usually means I was just meant to
do that.

I focused on these:

Try me, Lord, if you
think there's a way
I can try to repay all I've taken from you
Maybe Lord, I can show someone else
What I've been through myself, on my way back to you

If that isn’t a good description for why I write, well, I
don’t know what is. I focused on those words as I wrote the Believing in a Grand Thing section in A
River of Stories. I have used the lyrics in a few presentations to
writers and readers.

One recent Sunday morning (coming down?) wife Jan brought
out her smart phone to the deck and showed me a video of the story behind the song. Someone
had posted it on her Facebook page. It brought tears to my eyes as I heard Kris
tell the story. Made me wonder why I did not look it up before. It’s short, so
you can watch it here.

Then, a week or so later, we attended a Festival at the
Caney Creek Cowboy Church near Grand Saline. Old friend Don Edwards was
performing.Those of you who read A River of Stories may remember the
tale of The Bard and the Balladeer.
Don, of course, is the Balladeer.

Guess what his second song was at Caney Creek?
I had never heard him sing Why Me, Lord before. Sorry Kris, but his rendition
is better than yours. After Don’s performance, I told him that he needed to
outlive me, so he could sing that song at my funeral.