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March 31, 2012

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: March 31, 2012.

Last week I wrote: " All indicators turned down. I expect a move down in first instance to a level of 1340. Since there is no divergence between the index and the indicators, a move down now may still be followed by a last move up after this correction".

With the higher index on Monday it looks like we first made the expected last move up, starting the correction after that. We now have a short term negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the indicators with lower tops. Unfortunately there are no definite signs for a reversal yet. I can only make a best guess for next week and that is a start of the correction down.

I am working at a new chart template and the trading rules for using this template. I will introduce you to the new template (and new indicators) the following weeks!

The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009. We have a valid wave [B] now. We have to consider that it is not impossible that we are already starting the long term [C] wave down. We will have to wait and see if this is the case. SATS5 is green, I did not take a new long position, because I believed the turning point was too close by.

Elliott wave count:An optimistic possibility is that the index finished a long term correction wave [C] down in March 2009, now making a new long term wave [1]. An optimistic view since the correction wave [2] will be limited.Or a second possibility is that we completed a long term correction wave [A] in March 2009, and that we are now making long term correction wave [B] up that will be followed by long term correction wave [C] down. This would be the worst case scenario with an index target below 650.

Pitchfork:The index moves along the median line of the up moving pitchfork.