David Cameron's 2013 Tory Troubles, Europe, Gay Marriage And Ukip

Look behind you prime minister. Big set piece rebellions, disgruntled backbenchers and lurking 'Big Beasts', David Cameron has been given a rocky ride by his own party this year – and it does not look like 2013 will be any easier.

Coupled with big signature rebellions in the Commons, Tory MPs dissatisfied with the prime minister’s leadership of the party or with individual policy decisions are not shy about speaking out.

This year saw Nadine Dorries launch her now infamous “arrogant posh boys” attack on Cameron and George Osborne and it is not difficult to find other backbenchers who are willing to criticize their leader, if not perhaps in such colourful language and with such vehemence.

As well as the usual suspects, the 'Big Beasts' of the party also started to stir. Former leadership candidate David Davies teamed up with Liam Fox to articulate a more right wing message for the party – distinct from Cameron’s more deliberately liberal approach.

Ominously for Cameron, next year does not look likely to see a warming of relations between No.10 and the backbenches, with several confrontations penciled in for January.

First up will be Cameron’s speech on the EU. His “tantric” teasing of his backbenchers by delaying the speech has raised expectations and most will settle for nothing less than a pledge to hold an in or out referendum.

In the same month the coalition will introduce legislation to allow gay couples to marry. Cameron will allow his MPs a free vote, but with over 100 Tories expected to oppose the plan the Bill will expose a deep rift in the party. The split will gift Labour a chance to rubbish Cameron’s claims to have detoxified his party.

The repercussions of Leveson will roll on, with Tory MPs in favour of the statutory underpinning of press regulation, a move opposed by the prime minister, unlikely to keep quiet.

And of course, there is the small issue of the economy.

Clacton MP Douglas Carswell says the internal strife could be solved if the government beings to show signs it is pursuing a “coherent and credible free market policy” on the economy and addresses backbench concerns about the EU – starting with the prime minister’s speech.

“I think in order to be credible it will have to make it clear there will be a referendum it also needs to make it clear in that referendum an option will be in or out,” he says.

“If we get it right on the two big fundamental issues of the day all the other stuff will melt away. Those are the bread and butter issues that decide elections.”

He predicts unless Cameron can show he means business on the economy and Europe other disagreements, such as same-sex weddings, will continue to “flare up” and take on a significance they would not otherwise have.

“I find the issue of equal marriage the whole row deeply depressing,” Carswell says. “People I respect are fighting each other. I think both sides need to take a deep breath and remember Christmas is a season of good cheer, lets get it right on the two big issues.”

Tory MPs fear that the biggest winner from the government's approach to the EU and game marriage will be Ukip - which has the power to deny Cameron an overall majority at the next election if it snatches a few votes in marginal seats.

Recent polls have shown the anti-EU party led by Nigel Farage securing record levels of support, largely at the expense of the Tories.

Carswell puts Farage’s success to more than Europe. “I think the anti-politician mood, the anti-mainstream mood, can only really be dealt with by making parties open source,” he says.

He urges the Conservative leadership to embrace political change including open primaries and the introduction of a recall bill. The Tory party can no longer ben run as “private clubs from the 1950s”

Neutralising Farage as an electoral threat will be a real test for Cameron, as Ukip will hope to continue its advance next year with the goal of winning the 2014 European elections.

The prime minister could be in for a tough 2013. And that's before mentioning the problems Nick Clegg or Ed Miliband may cause him.

Related on HuffPost:

Close



Political Gaffes 2012

of





This entry was as inevitable as the sheepish grin on the face of a Mayan doomsayer on 22nd December.
In an effort to promote Britishness and post-zipwire testicle checks, Boris threw himself off a platform in Victoria Park and managed to make himself look like a cross between a patriotic conductor and a particularly inept daddy-longlegs.
Classic Boris.

We Brits were a touch proud about the Olympics.
So the last thing we needed was some rich Yank slagging us off and suggesting we couldn't pull it off.
Enter Mitt "the Gaffer" Romney.
It was worth it though to see Boris Johnson mock him in front of 60,000 people.

What better way to show off how manly you are standing on a huge, hard battleship than throwing your bell-end at a woman.
Hunt, we salute you, (but only for this).

We could have given this slide up to the absolutely beautiful misogynist bashing that Australian PM, Julia Gillard, gave to minister, Tony Abbott.
But instead here she is smooching grass.

Testicle-chomping parliament absconder, Nadine Dorries, returned home from her jungle jaunt to find herself, potentially, out of a job.

When Bob Holness died the whole country reflected on the career of one of the nations best-loved quiz show hosts.
Except for Ed who presumably reminisced on a career of alphabetised racial lynchings.

All the wrong doors, but doors none the same.

Rebekah Brooks' Leveson revelation that David Cameron used to sign off his text messages with 'LOL', believing it meant "lots of love" sparked a flurry of suggestions for other possible Cam-gaffes.

Andrew Mitchell proved his down-with-the-common-people credentials when he allegedly called police officers who asked him to dismount his bicycle as "plebs".
In his defence though, his bicycle is from the same era as his attitudes and it is quite hard to get off a penny farthing.
Mitchell was forced to resign, although the latest evidence suggests his use of the word "Pleb" could have been fabricated by a "witness" who was actually a police officer.

"My job is is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."
In just 24 words, Mitt Romney managed to alienate 47 percent of the American electorate.
In an ironic twist, Romney lost the election when he only gained (a presumably different) 47% of the electorate.
We finish with one from across the pond just remind ourselves that everything in America, even their gaffes, is bigger.