The Paris attacks have outraged the world. But, sadly, they will not have
surprised the French authorities

Every Western capital knows that Islamist extremists would love to strike a blow at its heart. But few are so tantalising a target as Paris.

Why?

The short answer is that France fights jihadists worldwide; has one of the largest Muslim populations in Europe – and arguably the most divided society. It also has a steady stream of guns pouring in from across continental Europe's porous borders. It is a potent, explosive mix – as shown by the Charlie Hebdo attacks of January, and now the Paris shootings.

French fire brigade members aid an injured individual near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris Photo: REUTERS

French intervention in Mali, against al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in 2013 was seen as pivotal in the weakening of the jihadi group. A fortnight ago a leader of an AQIM affiliate urged his followers to attack France in retaliation for their presence in the region.

And last week President Francois Hollande announced that France will deploy an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf to assist the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq the Levant (Isil), setting him on a collision course with the Islamist leaders.

A key problem, however, is internal.

The feelings of isolation and exclusion can be overwhelming, with few high profile Muslim role models in business or politics. France's stridently secular state, the banning of the burka and the power of the Front National have not helped to ease tensions between communities.

Mohamed Merah, the Toulouse shooter of 2012, grew up in a tough banlieu, began as a small-time delinquent, was sent to prison, and emerged a hardened jihadi with "meaning" in life.

Mehdi Nemouche, author of the May 2014 murder of four people in Brussels, was also radicalised in prison – travelling to Syria when he was freed and then coming back to attack the Jewish museum.

Chérif Kouachi and Amedy Coulibaly both followed a similar trajectory of lack of opportunity, descent into criminality, prison and radicalisation.

Inside France's prisons, 70 per cent of the inmates are estimated to be Muslims – by law, France cannot ask a person to state their religion, so official data is unavailable. In England and Wales, by comparison, Muslims account for 14 per cent of the prison population, according to Home Office statistics, and five per cent of the population nationwide.

In the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo attacks The Telegraph reported how France was struggling with radicalisation inside its prisons, and unlike Britain had very few Imams to enter the cells, and limited de-radicalisation programmes. In April Rachida Dati, the former justice minister and now a special rapporteur on radicalisation, told this paper that France was not doing enough to fight the power of Islamist radicals behind bars.

And another constant source of concern for the French authorities is the ease with which weapons can be trafficked into France.

Belgium has long struggled with illegal arms; it is believed the Charlie Hebdo attackers sourced their weapons there. The Balkans are also favoured shopping destinations; the years of conflict there during the Balkan Wars have left the region awash with cheap, nondescript weapons.

The result is a powder keg atmosphere.

We do not yet know who carried out the horrendous Paris attacks, and why. But, sadly, it is something that the French authorities knew could happen at any time.

Friday 13th Paris attacks

Times quoted refer to GMT

20.20

Spectators gather on the pitch of the Stade de France stadium. Photo: AFP

Three explosions take place near the Stade de France football stadium during a friendly between France and Germany attended by 80,000 spectators, including French President Francois Hollande. One person is killed, along with three suicide bombers.

20.30

Service personnel working outside the restaurant. Photo: Reuters

At around the same time of the explosions at the Stade de France militants launched an attack on the Petit Cambodge Cambodian restaurant in Rue Bichat, in the city's 10th arrondissement, killing 12 people. The nearby Le Carillon bar was also attacked. Militants then launched another attack on the Casa Nostra pizzeria in Rue de la Fontaine au Roi, killing five.

Militants launch an attack on La Belle Equipe in Rue de Charonne, spraying the terrace bar with bullets and killing 18 people in gunfire which witnesses say lasted "two, three minutes".

21.30

Wounded people are evacuated outside the Bataclan theatre. Photo: EPA

An hour after US rock group Eagles of Death Metal took to the stage, black-clad gunmen wielding AK-47s and wearing suicide vests stormed into the Bataclan concert hall in Boulevard Voltaire, shooting at hundreds of screaming concert-goers. At least 82 people died in the attack.

21.30

French President Francois Hollande, immediately evacuated from the Stade de France, where he was watching the soccer match, goes to the interior ministry to monitor the situation.

21.30

The police say that at least 18 have been killed.

21.57

Prime Minister David Cameron said on Twitter: “I am shocked by events in Paris tonight. Our thoughts and prayers are with the French people. We will do whatever we can to help.”

22.07

French President Francois Hollande receives a call in the security control room at the Stade de France. Photo:

The deputy mayor of Paris tells CNN that at least three people died at Stade de France.

22.16

Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Twitter: “My thoughts are with the people of Paris tonight. We stand in solidarity with the French. Such acts are heinous and immoral.”

French emergency services activate Plan Rouge to tackle the large numbers of casualties.

22.30

Wounded people are evacuated from the Stade de France. Photo: EPA

Parisians used the #PorteOuverte hashtag to search for or offer safe places for those fleeing the violence. The hashtag was soon trending.

22.43

A new toll of at least 35 dead.

22.46

President Obama delivered a speech at the White House, expressing solidarity with the people of Paris and calling the attacks terrorist acts. "Those who think that they can terrorise the people of France or the values that they stand for are wrong."We are reminded in this time of tragedy that the bonds of liberte, egalite, fraternite, are not just the values French people share, but we share."Those go far beyond any act of terrorism or the hateful vision of those who perpetrated the crimes this evening."

22.50

An emotional French president Francois Hollande closed the borders and declared a state of national emergency.

23.30

Reports emerge of French taxi drivers turning off their meters and offering passengers free rides home. A citywide curfew was put in place, the first since 1944.

23.30

Death toll is updated to at least 120.

23.30

People receive medical attention after being evacuated from the Bataclan theatre. Photo: AP

Police storm the Bataclan, ending their operation 30 minutes later. At least 82 people are killed in the concert hall attack. The four attackers are killed. Three die after activating their suicide vests and the fourth is shot dead.

Saturday, November 14

00.46

French soldiers patrol the area at the foot of the Eiffel Tower. Photo: AFP

At least 1,500 soldiers have been called upon to patrol the streets of Paris.

03.30

According to investigators, eight attackers were killed, of whom seven blew themselves up.

03.30

Schools, markets, museums and major tourist sites in the Paris area are closed and sporting fixtures cancelled.

09.50

Hollande calls the attacks "an act of war... committed by a terrorist army, the Islamic State, against France, against... what we are, a free country". He declares three days of national mourning.

09.50

The Islamic State claims responsibility for the attacks.

12.00 Saturday

A victim is wheeled out of the Bataclan concert hall. Photo: REUTERS/Charles Platiau

By noon on Saturday French officials had put the provisional death toll at 127 people from the combined attacks, with 180 injured and 99 people in hospital in critical condition.