Astute viewers,
welcome to Planet Earth:
Our Loving Home
on Supreme Master
Television.
This week we’ll find out
about the hugely damaging
environmental impact
of climate change with
Dr. Donald J. Wuebbles,
Harry E. Preble Endowed
Professor
in the Departments
of Atmospheric Sciences
and Electrical and
Computer Engineering at
the University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, USA.

Dr. Wuebbles has a PhD
in Atmospheric Sciences
from the University of
California – Davis, USA
and has authored over
400 scientific articles,
most of which
concern our planet’s
atmospheric composition
and its effects on
the global climate system.
He is noted
as the first scientist
to statistically prove
that stratospheric ozone
was depleting
in the early 1980’s
and was honored
by the United States
Environmental Protection
Agency in 2005 with
the Stratospheric Ozone
Protection Award
for his overall work
in this area.

Dr. Wuebbles
was a lead author
on the first and second
assessment reports
by the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC)
and shares in the 2007
Nobel Prize for his work
with the Panel.

We know that
the climate is changing,
that it’s not just
the Earth is warming;
it’s many other aspects
that are going on;
precipitation patterns
are changing
and other aspects and
we have clear evidence
that the basis
for those changes is
because of human activities
and particularly
the emissions
of carbon dioxide
and some other gases
and particles
that are in the atmosphere
that are causing a forcing
on the climate system
that is driving that change.

One serious outcome of
rising global temperatures
is an increase
in the frequency
and strength of
extreme weather events
such as hurricanes, floods
and droughts.

Well, this year (2011),
actually, was
the worst year on record
for natural disasters
in the U.S. – over
US$35-billion of damages.
Some of that was
due to hurricanes
and earthquakes
and things like that.
But a good part of it was
because of major storms
that occurred,
causing flooding;
for example,
the Midwest and the South,
near the Mississippi and
other, associated rivers,
wildfires occurring
in the Southwest related
to large temperatures
that were occurring
and a number of
other such things.

What we’re thinking is,
unfortunately, that kind of
uncommon event is likely
to become more common
in the future as we look
at the changing climate.
We really expect increases
in the severe weather
as a result
of climate change and
that’s what we’re seeing.
Every part of the US
has seen an increase
over the last 50 years.
In the Midwest, that’s been
over a 30% increase
in the top 1% of storms,
so more precipitation
is coming.

Well, that means more
flooding; in particular,
it’s tending
to come that way
in the winter and spring,
so more flooding.
And what we’re seeing
also in areas that aren’t
getting those increases
overall in precipitation
like we’re seeing
in the Midwest,
if we go to the Southwest,
for example,
when they do get rain,
it still tends
to come as larger events
than it used to,
but they’re not getting
as much rain
as they were before.
And so that’s why
in Texas (USA) this year
we had a really
major problem with
a really major drought.

The public typically
associates climate change
with unnaturally
hot weather, but it can
also lead to very harsh,
abnormally cold weather
in certain regions as well.
The substantial warming
occurring in the Arctic
is materially changing
the weather patterns
in other parts of the world.

So we expect more warming
in higher latitudes
because of several
important feedback
processes that occur
in the climate system.
One is called
the Ice-Albedo Feedback.
What that means is as
the ice in the Arctic melts
you have less ice on land
or less ice in the ocean.
The background,
what was covered with ice
has less reflectivity.
And that causes
more absorption
of sunlight and you get
warmer temperatures.
So what does that do?

Because
the temperature gradient
between the Arctic
and mid-latitudes
is decreasing, the jet stream
becomes weaker.
And the net result is
that large what we call
“extra-tropical storms”
are moving further
northward.
And that’s tending
to leave places like Texas
(USA) and the Southwest
and Southeast drier
and so more likely to have
a drought than before.
But it’s also
part of the reason
why we’re seeing this
increased precipitation
in our area (the Midwest).

At the same time,
the other key factor there
is that you can get
more Arctic air coming
down to mid-latitudes.
And so in the winter,
you can actually end up
with colder temperatures
for short periods
compared to what you
would have had previously.
So you can end up
with a large snowstorm
that can drop 36 inches
of snow
in Washington DC (USA)
and actually have that
relate very strongly
to our changing climate.

Shifts away from
normal weather patterns
also have detrimental
effects on human
and animal health;
one reason for this is
that certain diseases that
rely on vectors or hosts
spread as
suitable environments
for the hosts enlarge.

For example, malaria,
which is transmitted by
the Anopheles mosquito,
is mainly confined
to tropical areas,
but as the world warms,
more regions will provide
suitable conditions
for the mosquito to thrive,
thus causing
marked increases
in malarial infections.
The Wildlife
Conservation Society
has identified 12 diseases
that are likely
to spread to other areas
due to climate change,
including bird flu,
cholera, plague, Ebola,
tuberculosis, Lyme disease
and babesiosis.

However, increased
incidence of disease
is not the only
climate-change-induced
factor that will
significantly affect
human health.
Water and food shortages
and more dust storms
will also have
a tremendously negative
impact on our longevity
and quality of life.

One of the things
that I have a particular
concern about is pollens.
I have allergies;
many, many Americans
have allergies to pollen.
And as the climate
is warming,
as the weather patterns
are changing, we’re tending
to get more weeds.
More weeds means
more pollen, and
so more concerns about
those kinds of allergies
than we had before.

In addition,
as the climate changes,
we expect more issues
with air quality.
The same amount
of emissions that lead to
concerns about ozone
are actually exacerbated
or made worse
by warmer temperatures.

We expect that as
the temperature’s warming,
we’re more likely
to have pathogens
and insects and things
that can cause major,
major health problems
all come into a region
that maybe
you didn’t see before.
So there’s a wide range
of possible impacts
on human health as a result
of the change in climate.

The economic cost
of a hotter planet
is also predicted
to be extremely large;
a 2005 study
by Claudia Kemfert
of the German Institute
for Economic Research
estimated that
climate change will cost
up to US$20 trillion
by 2100.
However, another figure
calculated by
British scientists for the
European Commission's
Directorate General
for the Environment
put the sum at
US$73 trillion by 2200.

A report for
the British Government
by the World Bank’s
former chief economist
and past advisor
to the UK government
Lord Nicholas Stern
states that inaction
on climate change
will substantially reduce
the world’s economic
output by the end
of the current century.

There have been a number
of statements put out
that the cost of inaction
is far greater
than the cost of action.
And it is much better
to do something now
than wait because of
the extreme expense.

One analysis
by a number of
top economists
was led by Lord Stern
from the UK.
And in that analysis,
they said that
we may have as much as
a 20% decrease in
the gross domestic product
worldwide
by the end of the century
if climate change continues
to occur at the rate it is,
if we don’t do anything
about the burning
of fossil fuels, etc.
So that would be
a dramatic impact on
the economics, affecting
everyone on Earth.

Another report
by the Netherlands
Environmental
Assessment Agency,
entitled
“Climate Benefits
of Changing Diet,” states
that a planetary shift
to a completely
plant-based diet
would result in
an 80% reduction
in the costs of mitigating
global warming by 2050,
because producing
animal products
is extremely intensive
in terms of energy use
and emits very harmful
greenhouse-gases.

Many of these gases
such as methane and
nitrous oxide generated
in the process of raising
factory-farmed animals
have global warming
potentials far larger than
that of carbon dioxide.
For example,
over a 20-year period,
methane is 72-times more
potent than carbon dioxide
at warming the Earth
and if aerosol interactions
are considered,
the gas is actually
100 times more potent;
however it is shorter-lived
compared to
carbon dioxide.

Methane stores
in the atmosphere
for 10 years, which means
that after you emit
a certain amount
of methane, 10 years later
you can expect
a little over 60% of that,
maybe almost
two-thirds of that gas
has been removed
from the atmosphere
through reaction.
And then the rest
stays there for
another 10-year period.
And you reduce another
60-plus percent of that
and then,
nitrous oxide's even longer.
It's like a hundred years.
(CO2 has an initial lifetime
of a hundred years.

But then after that,
it depends on the rate
of the CO2 being removed
into the deep ocean.
So the second lifetime,
second e-folding rate,
we call it,
would be maybe more like
a thousand years.
So, CO2, once we emit it,
stays around
for a long, long time.
No question about
the importance of methane
and nitrous oxide
and some other gases
in terms of their effects
on climate and
are very much a concern.

What do think about
the government
shifting subsidies away
from livestock and toward
organic vegan farming
as an effective and
even money-saving policy
to help reduce
global warming?

I think anything we can do
towards promoting going
vegetarian and vegan
would be really good.
As a scientist, I don’t tend
to talk about policy
and say well we should
be doing specific things
with policy.
But certainly,
I think the science tells us
that we could help
with these concerns
about sustainability
and climate concerns
by reducing our use of
meat and animal products,
so we should be
looking at ways
we could do that effectively.

Thank you
Dr. Donald J. Wuebbles
for taking time
from your busy schedule
to talk about the effects
of climate change
on our world and for your
important scientific work
in this field over the years.
May enjoy
continued success in your
future research endeavors.

For more information
on Dr. Wuebbles,
please visit
www.Atmos.Illinois.edu/people/wuebbles.html