Just glancing at the boxscore, but I'm wondering what kind of prospect Hogan will be. I think he's staying in school for another year, but his numbers are very good.

He has good tools but his throwing motion is kinda jacked. He is doing a nice job not forcing things this year and throwing it away or running for a short gain. He will stay another year for sure so he will have more time to develop.

Alright, never mind. Cal can't hold onto the football at all. Fumbled away every possession so far. May have been an interesting nightcap if it wasn't for the weather. Cal clearly wasn't ready for the elements though.

How did they not go for that 4th down with 7 minutes left. Even if everything went perfect - as it pretty much did; they got Ohio State to punt with only 2 minutes coming off - that's not enough time for this Wisconsin offense to get two scores.

How did they not go for that 4th down with 7 minutes left. Even if everything went perfect - as it pretty much did; they got Ohio State to punt with only 2 minutes coming off - that's not enough time for this Wisconsin offense to get two scores.

Because generally teams are incredibly stupid and passive when it comes to things like that, and like to make decisions based on precedent rather than what actually makes sense.

Because generally teams are incredibly stupid and passive when it comes to things like that, and like to make decisions based on precedent rather than what actually makes sense.

Amen. You should go for it on fourth in most situations. Stay true to it and play with that in mind and you are going to do better than punting it or kicking it. Some math nerds did some analysis and expected points per game go up quite a bit when you only kick in the most extreme of situations.

Amen. You should go for it on fourth in most situations. Stay true to it and play with that in mind and you are going to do better than punting it or kicking it. Some math nerds did some analysis and expected points per game go up quite a bit when you only kick in the most extreme of situations.

The last sentence is true and I think coaches are, generally, far too passive. There are situations where the 'book' says punt or FG for absolutely no logical reason. However, there are some massive caveats with the extreme view you're taking.

While expected pts will rise, when you pursue a risky strategy, the shape of the standard deviation curve for expected points changes with kurtosis decreasing and 'fat tail risk' increasing. In simple terms, the chances of getting blown out (or scoring far below your expected points) rises exponentially as you take on more risk. Now, you also have a much better chance of blowing out you opponent, but it carries risk.

That's why it is frequently suggested that underdogs pursue 'david (risky) strategies' when obviously outgunned in a game. Pursuing such a strategy is generally considered dumb for favorites.

I'm beginning to wonder if David Shaw is going to get some NFL looks come season's end. Seems like he should be the next in line.

He keeps saying that he isn't interested and is very happy where he is. I read this on Peter King's MMQB.

Quote:

A 34-second discussion with highly respected Stanford head coach David Shaw, about his NFL desires:

Me: “You tempted by the NFL?”

Shaw: “Nope.”

Me: “Ever?”

Shaw: “Maybe somewhere way down the road. I said no to all the interviews last year. I got called by a bunch of teams. I love where we’re at right now, I love this team. This team we have, it’s going to be good for a while.”

Me: “No guarantees in the NFL. The grass isn’t always greener.”

Shaw: “When teams reached out to me last year, I said, ‘Okay, you tell me which NFL city is better than Palo Alto. And then explain that to my wife.’ ‘

Basically says he's open to it. Coaches never come out and say they're open to moving from their current. They try to give as firm as a commitment as possible, while leaving a small opening to leave.

I don't know who he was contacted by last year, but if it was say the Jaguars and the Bills, why the hell would he leave? He can wait for the right situation to come along. And when it does he's probably gone.