Fewer than 10,000 U.S. troops could stay in Afghanistan — U.S. role in Yemen attacks raises questions

By Kate Brannen

04/22/14 08:31 AM EDT

With Jeremy Herb and Philip Ewing

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WEIGHING NEW OPTIONS FOR SMALLER U.S. PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN POST-2014, reports Reuters’ Missy Ryan and Arshad Mohammed: “The number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan may drop well below 10,000 — the minimum demanded by the U.S. military to train Afghan forces — as the longest war in American history winds down, Obama administration officials briefed on the matter say.

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“Since Afghanistan's general election on April 5, White House, State Department and Pentagon officials have resumed discussions on how many American troops should remain after the current U.S.-led coalition ends its mission this year.

“The decision to consider a small force, possibly less than 5,000 U.S. troops, reflects a belief among White House officials that Afghan security forces have evolved into a robust enough force to contain a still-potent Taliban-led insurgency.” http://reut.rs/1eXBY3c

U.S. PRESSURE SLOWLY RATCHETING UP IN UKRAINE, via POLITICO’s Philip Ewing: “The Obama administration appears to be preparing to put new pressure on Russia over the Ukraine crisis, concerned that Moscow won’t follow through on last week's agreement intended to defuse the standoff.

“Vice President Joe Biden arrived Monday in Kiev to address one of Ukraine’s critical weaknesses — its dependence upon Russian energy exports. And the Pentagon suggested that new deployments of U.S. forces to Eastern Europe, including some ground troops likely in Poland and Estonia, are all but certain.”

— THE VIEW FROM MOLDOVA: “I found a very different Washington on my most recent visit,” Moldova’s prime minister, Iurie Leanca, told Bloomberg View’s Jeffrey Goldberg earlier this month. “Probably in normal times, President Obama would never come up from his Oval Office into my meeting with Vice President Biden. But he spent seven or 10 minutes with me. Pictures, too. Finally, Americans are paying attention. They know what is happening, and they showed an understanding of how difficult this situation is for us, and they understand that it is their responsibility to prove that this decision [by Russia] to intervene in Crimea was a miscalculation.” http://bv.ms/1rgANvX

PIECING TOGETHER WHAT HAPPENED IN YEMEN: It appears a major multi-day military operation has taken place in Yemen, where U.S. drone strikes paired with raids by Yemeni forces targeted a suspected Al Qaeda training base hidden in the mountains.

The death toll seems to change with every story. The AP is reporting that, according to the Yemeni government, “55 militants were killed so far.” And details are still emerging about the civilians killed in the strikes. http://apne.ws/1eXvx0f

“The assault appeared to be a significant escalation in the U.S. and Yemeni campaign against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the terror group's powerful branch in the southern Arabian nation,” reports the AP’s Ahmed Al-Haj.

— U.S. ROLE NOT ‘IMMEDIATELY CLEAR,’ reports The New York Times’ Eric Schmitt: “American officials said the airstrikes had been carried out by drones operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, but an agency spokesman declined to comment. Other officials said American Special Operations military personnel had supported the Yemeni operations on the ground with intelligence and possibly logistical assistance. The Pentagon declined to discuss the operations.” http://nyti.ms/PpHnUx

— THE INFO WE DO HAVE RAISES QUESTIONS, writes Ryan Goodman, a human rights lawyer at New York University.

“Shrouded in secrecy, the actions raise questions about the consistency of U.S. operations with the ‘new rules’ that the White House announced on May 23, 2013, for lethal operations,” Goodman writes for Just Security. “The actions also raise a profound question about whether U.S. involvement in Yemen (a) has slid into fighting an insurgency (i.e., an internal armed conflict) on the side of the Yemeni government rather than (b) combating AQAP as part of the transnational armed conflict with Al Qaeda pursuant to Congress’s Authorization to Use Military Force.” http://goo.gl/GjEc8Z

HEARING ALERT — BREEDLOVE COMES BACK TO TOWN: Gen. Philip Breedlove, chief of the U.S. European Command and the NATO supreme allied commander Europe, will brief the Senate Armed Services Committee after it returns from its two-week recess next week.

The closed-door meeting on May 1 will give senators a chance to question Breedlove about the U.S. strategy around Ukraine as the Pentagon reviews its options for further troop deployments to Eastern Europe.

AND BIG FOREIGN SALE ALERT: “The U.S. government on Monday said it had approved the potential sale of 18 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters built by Sikorsky Aircraft, a unit of United Technologies Corp to Mexico, a deal valued at $680 million,” Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1i9mYds

A SHRINKING ARMY IS PAINFUL FOR SOME YOUNG ARMY OFFICERS, reports the AP’s Lolita C. Baldor: “Already down to about 522,000, the Army must shrink to 490,000 by October 2015, and then to 450,000 two years later. If automatic budget cuts resume, the Army will have to get down to 420,000 — a size service leaders say may not allow them to wage even one major, prolonged military campaign.

“While a lot of the reduction can come from voluntary retirements, resignations and decreased enlistments, Army commanders will have to force as many as 3,000 officers — nearly 10 percent of the planned decrease — to leave by the end of October, 2015. Of those, nearly 1,500 are captains, 550 are majors.” http://apne.ws/1eXNRX9

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AND THE ARMY-GUARD BATTLE JUST GOT WORSE, via Breaking Defense’s Sydney J. Freedberg Jr: In a previously undisclosed briefing, acting Deputy Defense Secretary Christine Fox told Congress that the Army National Guard’s AH-64 Apache attack helicopters should be transferred to active-duty units because they just can’t stay as ready for battle if they stay in the Guard.

Her briefing (which you can see here: http://goo.gl/MASVd9) says it takes the Guard longer to train Apache pilots for combat deployment and, when they do deploy, they are assigned less complex and less demanding missions.

“This is the first time I’ve seen such a case against Guard aviation, the most bitterly controversial issuein the Army’s plan to cope with the budget cuts known as sequestration,” Freedberg writes. “Perhaps most striking, this is the first time I’ve seen an argument against Guard readiness made by a senior official from the Office of the Secretary of Defense, let alone by the No. 2 in the entire Defense Department.”

Needless to say, Guard advocates are less than thrilled.

A DEADLY DAY IN IRAQ, via AP: “Suicide bombings and other attacks across Iraq killed at least 30 people and wounded nearly 70 more on Monday, officials said, the latest in an uptick in violence as the country counts down to crucial parliament elections later this month.” http://fxn.ws/1rgvjBt

MARATHON SUPPORT: About 750 Massachusetts National Guard soldiers and airmen supported the Boston Marathon on Monday, the Pentagon said. They provided law enforcement support, served on medical staffs, were on hand in case of bomb threats and helped with transportation, said Defense Department spokesman Col. Steve Warren.

“The Massachusetts National Guard has supported the marathon for many years, and they played a critical role in the response to last year’s bombing incident,” Warren said.

— ADDITIONAL DATA POINT: Warren has a new map of Ukraine on his office wall.

REMEMBERING PAT TILLMAN: Today marks 10 years since NFL player and Army Ranger Pat Tillman died by friendly fire in Afghanistan.

On Saturday, 30,000 people ran in the 10th annual Pat’s Run in Tempe, Ariz. “The proceeds fund a college-scholarship foundation that has now helped put 290 veterans or their spouses through school,” reports the Arizona Republic’s Dianna M. Náñez. http://goo.gl/JydI4A

— Russian troops operating in Ukraine have proved themselves to be formidable, using cyberwarfare, an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops to seize the initiative from the West.” The New York Times: http://nyti.ms/1i55VOB

MAKING MOVES:

— NAVY ANNOUNCES NEW PEO OF SHIPS: Rear Adm. David Gale has been assigned as the program executive officer for ships at the Washington Navy Yard, the Navy announced yesterday. Gale has been deputy commander for surface warfare at the Naval Sea Systems Command, also at the Navy Yard.

Meanwhile, Rear Adm. David Lewis, the current PEO for ships, will become commander of the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command in San Diego. http://1.usa.gov/1gNZyLe

WHO’S WHERE WHEN

10 a.m: U.N. Special Representative for Somalia Nicholas Kay participates in a discussion titled, “Progress or Peril in Somalia?” hosted by the United States Institute of Peace.

Noon: The defense secretary and Secretary of State John Kerry meet with National Security Adviser Susan Rice at the White House.

Noon: The American Society of International Law holds a discussion on “Crimes Against Humanity: The U.N. Report on Human Rights Violations in North Korea,” at the offices of WilmerHale in Washington.

12:30 p.m: The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies holds a discussion on “Iraq After 2014” with former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan and the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad.

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Authors:

About The Author

Kate Brannen is a defense reporter for POLITICO Pro.

Before coming to POLITICO, Brannen covered congress for Defense News, providing regular coverage of the budget debate on Capitol Hill and its implications for national security. Previously, she spent three years covering the U.S. Army — first as a reporter for InsideDefense.com, then as the land warfare correspondent for Defense News.

Brannen graduated from the University of Pennsylvania, with a bachelor's degree in history. She has received graduate degrees from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism and School of International and Public Affairs.