Reflating housing bubbles goes global

Bankers around the globe learned from the US how to reflate house price bubbles by removing distressed inventory and lobbying for government subsidies.

Bankers in the US discovered the formula for reflating housing bubbles: remove distressed inventory from the market through loan modification, denying short sales, and permitting long-term delinquent mortgage squatting, then lobby the government for a variety of housing subsidies and stimulants to stoke demand. This two-prong approach reduces supply and increases demand forcing house prices to go up; in fact, the more severe the housing bubble and resulting crash, the more effective the policy is because greater residual mortgage distress equates to larger supply restrictions as underwater owners control most of the inventory.

Bankers in the US implemented this policy of housing market manipulation to save themselves. At one time, they were exposed to $1 trillion in unsecured mortgage debt. If the borrowers in those properties were to default, and if the banks were to foreclose, the resulting losses would wipe out the banking industry. The only way to correct this problem and keep the existing banks in business was to restore the value to the collateral backing all those loans, and the only way to accomplish that feat was to reflate the housing bubble — and as it turns out, bankers around the world all have the same problem.

The success of this policy of market manipulation has not gone unnoticed internationally as many other countries struggle with the aftermath of their housing bubbles:

The Irish housing bubble

What fascinates me personally about the housing bubbles around the world is how much differently the financial press reacts in Ireland and Great Britain. Here in the US, it’s an unspoken agreement that everyone wants to see higher home prices at any cost; very few reporters criticize the government or the banks for their behavior. Overseas, the financial media is not letting the government or the people forget the madness of the housing bubble and the pain it inflicted on the whole country. They don’t want to see it happen again. Sometimes, I think we do.

If you were suspicious you’d think there are forces trying to make sure there is a new housing bubble. Now who could that be?

A monkey burns his hand in a fire once he’ll never do it again.

A Paddy does likewise and he says bring on the skin graft.

I am frightened by the lessons lenders learned from the housing bubble. Now that they know they can prevent a swift and lasting decline in house prices, moral hazard dictates they will try to inflate as massive of a housing bubble as possible in order to maximize their potential interest income. As a result of this moral hazard, the next housing market deflation will be a long, slow grind.

After suffering the worst housing crash in the history of mankind it looks as if it’s going to happen all over again.

If it’s true that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result then the Irish are stone mad.

Ever since lenders figured out they could take in $100 in deposits and make $10,000 in loans, they inflated a variety of credit bubbles and introduced needless volatility in our financial system in order to siphon off as much money as possible from weary borrowers. Fractional-reserve lending benefits bankers at the expense of everyone else, but we continue allowing it.

Property prices are rocketing by €5,000 a month in the capital and what do we do?

That’s right, Bank of Ireland pours petrol on the flames by offering to pay the stamp duty for first-time buyers.

At least we are easing back on the subsidies and increasing borrowing costs to reduce the government footprint in housing finance. The Irish are taking the opposite approach.

And to prove the good times are rolling again for the rich, the Irish Times yesterday published an 18-page property supplement.

You’d have imagined the ghost estates, Priory Hall and the ongoing pyrite scandal would act as warning signs on the road to future ruin.

And the plight of 100,000 families in mortgage arrears and many more in negative equity might deter anyone from joining them in home-loan hell.

The memories haven’t deterred buyers here either…

But no, it appears us Paddies are genetically programmed to purchase property and the madness of the past boom is set to start all over again.

The signs are all there with queues forming outside estate agents as frantic buyers try to outbid each other for homes which are already overpriced.

Sounds like the rally we had last year as well.

On Dublin’s northside homes are being bombarded with leaflets urging owners to consider selling to take advantage of the property shortage. …

I get tired of the crap realtors hang on my front door, don’t you?

So plans to bulldoze those ghost estates in Longford and Leitrim might be premature, they could be needed to accommodate those who can’t afford to get on the property ladder in Dublin. The 150km commute could be making a comeback.

How long before high prices in OC and LA cause house prices to rise in Riverside County again?

If you were suspicious you’d think there are forces trying to make sure there is a new housing bubble. Now who could that be?

Seven years ago the banks were touting massive 110% mortgages on overpriced property to people on modest salaries.

It’s refreshing to see a report in the financial media pointing the finger squarely at the banks. Here in the US, we cloak it as helping out the poor underwater homeowners who are struggling with their payments.

Now young couples can save €2,000 on a €200,000 mortgage thanks to the big-hearted bankers at Bank of Ireland.

But if they are that stuck for a couple of grand why the hell are they taking out massive loans of more than €300,000?

The average resale price of a house in Dublin is now €329,700 – a jump of nearly 25% in the past year.

They had the same bubble reflation rally we did — and for the same reasons; their bankers learned from ours how to manipulate the housing market.

Rich pickings for Richie Boucher and the bank which refuses to even contemplate debt forgiveness for the indebted mortgage holders who fell for such tricks in the past.

It is unclear if AIB and the other lenders will come up with similar plans to snare first-time buyers. …

I think it’s sad how banks ruined the previous generation of first-time homebuyers, so now we are straddling the next generation of first-time homebuyers with huge debts under somewhat better terms in order to pay off the mistakes of the housing bubble.

Ordinary people desperate for a home cannot be aware of the dangers when there has been no official inquiry into the last banking and property crash.Despite promises, the present Government has still not conducted a proper investigation to find out why the economy was brought to its knees and who was responsible.

As the Central Bank, which failed to spot never mind stop the crash, … hopefully they will remember those who don’t learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them.

57 responses to “Reflating housing bubbles goes global”

That our business and political leaders did not see the crisis coming is an indictment of how we choose and enable our leaders. Instead they targeted hedge funds with punitive subpoenas. I worry about the future of a nation that refuses to acknowledge the true causes of the crisis. An historic opportunity had been lost and America has chosen it’s poison as it’s cure.

QE seems to be working for now, but this is an invalid validation of what America is doing.

Bernanke says he is not printing money. I disagree. The public has not learned that short-sided easy strategies are the route to long term ruin. We never received the catharsis necessary for a re-evaluation. The toxic twins, fiat currency and an activist fed, are still firmly entrenched.

We need better leaders, but that is not going to happen. A problem cannot be solved if it is not acknowledged.

Home ownership should not be a policy of the government. The banking system needs to be broken up. 22 million public workers have no business unionizing against the taxpayers. Our country’s math does not work. All this debt is a real tax on our future.

It is debtor’s prison for our children. The bill has not yet come due yet except for savers and those on fixed income.
Entire nations can and have followed the wrong path for a very long time and do run aground. Legacies can sometimes be a fatal burden in a rapidly changing world, and common sense must prevail. It is not a time to blindly follow. Open a bank account in Canada.

When interest payments exceed tax revenue, we become a ponzi scheme. It’s hard to pick that spot; our government leaders are in a teen-age state right now. Governments can last a lot longer that they should. A lot of what we “rather not happen,” the dictators will get done.

It’s hard to predict when, but I think we’ll have a warning. One day will a treasury auction fail? I don’t see that happening. It’s too easy for the government to hide that. I don’t know that you can wait for that.

I used to believe this, but when I really reflected on it, I realized that no country that owns a printing press can ever be a Ponzi scheme. No matter how bad the debt gets, more money can be printed, and the problem can be printed over with inflation.

I used to think this way before, but then I realized … this “the problem can be printed over with inflation” has never happened before.

IR … can you name 1 developed country, other than the Weimar Republic, that was capable of inflating their problems away.

Germany after WW1 was an extremely unique situation where they were suppressed by reparations. Also, what happened to the Weimar Republic when the economic reset (aka Great Depression) happened? DEFLATION!

” can you name 1 developed country, other than the Weimar Republic, that was capable of inflating their problems away.”

No country is capable of inflating it’s problems away, and that has not stopped them from trying. It has not stopped the US from trying.

It is short-sided and misleading to limit a study of inflation based economies to what you refer to as “developed contries”. The effects of money printing, (inflation), are not limited to non-developed countries. Denying that the US is just as susceptible to the effects of increasing it’s money supply is specious.

The world has been printing for the last 5 years! Japan for many more years. Where is the inflation? All I see is more speculation … energy and food is up … big deal … it’ll all crash like it did in 2008.

Don’t you think that the rise in the price of housing and equities and bonds is due to QE? It may crash, it may not. If the Fed actually tapered QE, the prices of many things might decrease. I don’t think the Fed is tapering, and I think the Fed has purchased more bonds than ever last month. If asset prices do start to crash, I more than think the Fed will print. They will print. That is the only bullet the Fed has, whether through interest rate manipulation, buying mortgage securities, or whatever. QE is what stopped the decline in home prices. It worked in that it artificially raised nominal prices, but it did nothing real for the economy except transfer wealth to the wealthy and give the federal government more power.

IR … can you name 1 developed country, other than the Weimar Republic, that was capable of inflating their problems away.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think this makes any problems go away. It merely counteracts deflation, and a policy of printing to obtain inflation has it’s own set of negative consequences.

The worst part about inflation is that the political left that tends to embrace it often doesn’t recognize that the working poor are hurt the most by inflation. Yes, the rich are made less rich because their currency wealth and savings returns erode, but the working poor face higher prices on essential goods and services, and most often wage growth doesn’t keep up.

“The only countries that are capable of creating hyperinflation are 3rd world.”

Why? Why aren’t non-third world countries capable of creating hyperinflation? How can the money supply crash if the Fed keeps creating dollars? What is there to stop the Fed from creating more dollars if asset prices start to crash? The Fed reacted to bank owned assed price declines by creating 4 or 5 trillion dollars. What is there to stop the Fed from reacting similarly if asset prices crash as you say they will?

House prices have deflated well over 50% since 2006 in many markets, but prices are only 20% down in real terms. By the time prices are fully reflated, they will still be down nearly 50% in real terms because the nominal price is an illusion based on debased currency.

Historically, gold currency and gold based currencies have ALL been eventually debased by government power, as have all currencies. Historically, gold currencies and gold based currencies have been more difficult to debase and have taken much loner to debase.

Gold based currency is not a cure-all. A government with too much power will always find a way to increase it’s power by deceptive currency practices. Presently, we have both a federal government and a private banking system enriching and empowering themselves at the expense of the citizenry.

Bitcoin will prove a failure, but someone will eventually invent an alternative currency impervious to manipulation and control by central banks and governments. When that happens, many people will embrace that as a reserve currency. It’s only a matter of experimentation and time.

Speculation on wall street is more QE from Japan and new QE from the EU is just around the corner. That is why the stock market has rallied from it’s intraday low about 1.5 weeks ago. So, even if the FED continues to taper, printed money will still be flowing from the central banks. Does not matter who does the printing … as long as major central banks are printing a major currency, risk assets, which includes real estate should rally. The big question is how broad the real estate rally is … i.e. which zip codes will benefit the most … possible some or perhaps many zip codes may not rally much. But, I doubt you will see many price declines if worldwide QE continues. Possible we will have 3 majors printing at once … unprecedented. Inflation is the most likely outcome … worldwide.

This article sums it up. There are many RE markets that are much more overpriced than ours. That makes areas like OC and LA more like value play which will not drop much in the next crash. The Central Bankers are desperately trying to avoid deflation at all costs. Maybe their goal is to force prices of RE to stay elevated to finally trickle to wage growth which in turn create inflation. At the same time, they are suppressing interest rates to force money into malinvestements. The jury is still out on the effectiveness of their policies so far Japan has failed in my book. Martin Armstrong said they will fail after 2015 with US being the last to fall.

Many politicians and left-wing economists don’t see a problem with printing more and more money. Printing money ultimately is theft from savers and those who hold wealth, so the political left is a natural proponent of such policies. It’s the political right representing the interests of wealth that opposes printing money.

Realistically, printing money isn’t a Ponzi scheme, and in won’t lead to economic catastrophe, it’s a stealth tax and theft from the wealthy.

“Now it has happened. For nearly two days there was not a single cash bid for the eponymous 10-year JGB in what is a $10 trillion market. That means at least for the moment, liquidity has dried-up and gone completely missing.”

Not only have home prices been on the rise for the ninth straight quarter, but they are starting to creep closer to being more expensive than ever.

According to the latest Zillow Home Value Forecast, home values grew 5.7% year-over-year in the first quarter, with declines experienced in the recession almost gone or close to being erased in almost 20% of metro housing markets nationwide.

Home values nationwide grew .5% from the fourth quarter of 2013, and are expected to increase another 3.3% through the first quarter of 2015.

“The lows of the housing recession are becoming an increasingly distant memory as home values reach new highs and homes become more expensive than ever in many areas. This is a remarkable milestone coming only two and a half years after the end of the worst housing recession since the Great Depression, and is a testament to just how robust this housing recovery has been,” said Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries.

Across the U.S., home values are 13.5% below their 2007 peak after falling 22.6% during the recession before bottoming in 2011.

However, the market is almost past this.

So far, 1,080 of the more than 8,700 cities and towns covered by Zillow, with home values already at or expected to reach pre-recession levels in the next year, including in many hard-hit areas.

And affordability has yet to be too dramatically impacted in the majority of places.

“But there are a handful of markets where affordability is again a challenge, even with mortgage interest rates incredibly low. Mortgage interest rates won’t stay low forever. And rents have also been marching steadily higher for several years,” Humphries said.

“As a result, the housing affordability issues we’re already seeing in select markets could become a much more widespread concern a few years from now. As affordability worsens, more residents will be forced to search for affordable housing farther from urban job centers, and home values in some areas may have to come down,” he added.

For example, homes in a handful of metros – including San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Jose and San Diego – are already unaffordable, with the share of residents’ incomes currently devoted to monthly mortgage payments exceeding historic norms.

A weaker-than-expected first quarter has researchers at Fannie Mae amending their forecast for growth in 2014, but they still project acceleration as the year progresses.

In its Economic and Housing Outlook for April, Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group notes economic activity slowed in Q1 even more than was forecast, partly due to a sharp decline in inventory investment as consumer spending waned.

Citing that drop—as well as unusual weather patterns and a “surprising widening” in February’s net exports—the group brought its projection for first-quarter economic growth down 0.5 percentage points to 1.5 percent annualized.

Even with the adjustment, Fannie’s prediction calls for economic growth at 2.7 percent in 2014, a slight increase over last year’s 2.6 percent expansion.

“The April economic forecast is similar to February and March, where slow growth has been the common denominator, but we expect to see a slight pickup beginning this quarter,” explained Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

Supporting that growth forecast are expected improvements in consumer spending, relief from fiscal policy concerns, and strengthening in the housing market—though expectations for the latter also had to be scaled back, thanks to the year’s slow start.

“Some but not all of the weakness is likely related to the abnormally severe winter weather and should rebound in coming months,” the group said. “However, a significant share of the weakness appears to be related to the sharp decline in housing affordability and could persist for some time.”

However, Duncan added, “the recent loss of momentum is likely a temporary one.”

The group expects sales of new, single-family homes to rise 14.8 percent over 2013’s total to 494,000, a downward revision from 519,000. The forecast looks worse for existing homes, which are now expected to fall 1 percent to about 5.0 million.

Origination projections have also been brought down, with purchase originations expected to hit $724 billion as refinances drop to $417 billion.

Many housing industry experts and economists (especially “celebrity economists”) have been touting their belief that the housing recovery has been very real over the past year to 18 months, and see things only getting better.

We, on the other hand, have seemingly been a rare contrarian.

For many months we have privately and publicly stated that the current housing “recovery” is an illusion – a false recovery built upon a sandy foundation above a slippery slope.

But the truth is, things are even worse.

In a recent article published by the Daily Real Estate News, (February 12, 2014 – “Rising Prices Chip Away at Housing Affordability”), evidence seems to suggest there are signs of a new housing bubble.

In the aforementioned piece it was stated that according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest quarterly report, “strong year-over-year price gains are starting to take a bite into housing affordability.” It also noted that the median single-family home price rose in 119 out of 164 metro areas in the fourth quarter of 2013, which is 73%, with 26% of those metros posting double-digit increases.

That sounds like good news on the surface of it, but when one takes into consideration that incomes for the middle class in America have not come close to keeping pace with the rise in home prices, and that interest rates are expected to rise noticeably into 2015, you see that housing affordability is being negatively impacted.

This will impact prices.

Without housing affordability there cannot be a rise in first-time buyer participation. Without the entrance of first-time buyers, those wishing (or hoping) to move up to a larger home or relocate into other neighborhoods will not be able to so, at least not readily. This can produce a cascade effect on housing prices, starting to drive them downward to reflect a decrease in demand.

Oh Please… This is not a bubble. During the last bubble we saw double-digit price increases in 2003, 4, and 5. The response to those price increases was ever increasing demand. People didn’t want to be left out. They wanted to get their free money.

This year we are seeing falling demand in response to higher prices. To me this indicates a rational response to higher prices. Contrast this with an irrational bubble response where higher prices = higher demand.

The reason prices jumped up so much last year was that home prices were too low given the low interest rates. Home prices undershot, and sharply corrected to affordability limits based on the 3% rates. At the same time rates corrected and the affordability limits dropped below what could support the sharply correcting prices. Now the prices and affordability are coming back into balance.

The bubble callers are out early hoping to make a name for themselves. If they are wrong, everyone forgets them, but if we end up inflating another bubble, they look prescient.

I don’t believe we are in a bubble now. My reports say we’re not, and when I look at individual properties, my cost of ownership calculations say we’re not. Until those numbers change, any talk of a bubble is jumping the gun.

It is my observation that most bubble callers have no idea what the difference is between a bull market, price increases due to money supply inflation, and bubbles. Those who really know the difference put their money where their mouth is.

California single-family home and condominium sales were up 20.9 percent in March 2014 from February but were down 13.3 percent from March 2013. Both distressed and non-distressed property sales posted gains for the month. March 2014 distressed property sales gained 7.4 percent from February, while non-distressed property sales were up 25.2 percent.

“Despite the nice jump in March home sales, sales continue to be slower than we’ve seen since 2008,” said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Economic Research for PropertyRadar. “The supply of lower-priced distressed properties is disappearing at a rapid clip and is not being replaced by an adequate supply of non-distressed properties.”

The March 2014 median price of a California home hit its highest level since March 2008, rising $16,000, or 4.6 percent, to $366,000 from $350,000 in February. On a year-ago basis, median home prices jumped 13.3 percent. Driving the month-over-month price increase in March was a 25.2 percent increase in the sales volume of higher priced non-distressed properties.

“The jump in median home prices in March was somewhat of a surprise given the lackluster sales volume since last summer,” said Schnapp. “This past month, however, seasonal demand and lack of inventory drove up prices. In addition, higher priced non-distressed properties now comprise nearly 80% of total sales volume, up from 64% a year ago,” said Schnapp.

Rapid price increases will help create more for sale inventory by reducing the number of underwater California homeowners. The number of California homeowners with more than 10 percent equity in their homes increased 0.5 percent, or nearly 27,000, in March. Since August, an additional 393,000 homeowners, or an increase of 8 percent, now have more than 10 percent equity in their homes and can now participate in the real estate market and either sell or buy property.

“While the decline in negative equity will help with the lack of inventory problem,” said Schnapp. “It is important to keep in mind that nearly 1.2 million California homeowners, or 13.5 percent, remain underwater which continues to create significant headwinds for the California housing market.”

In other California housing news:

* Institutional Investor LLC and LP purchases gained 2.0 percent for the month but are down 26.5 percent from March 2013. Seventy-five percent of March LLC and LP purchases were for cash compared to nearly 80 percent in March 2013. Despite March’s modest gain, LLC and LP purchases are down 48.5 percent from their December 2012 peak.
* Cash sales were up 10.6 percent for the month but down 11.4 percent year-over-year.
* Flip sales gained 7.0 percent for the month but were down 26.9 percent year-over-year
* Foreclosure sales continued to decline, down 2.4 percent for the month and 40.1 percent year-over-year.

Sales of existing homes ticked down 0.2% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million, the slowest pace since July 2012, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a March sales rate of 4.55 million, compared with a February rate of 4.6 million. Recent drops in the sales pace of existing homes have been relatively small, signaling that the market may be stabilizing and sales could bounce higher in coming months, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. The median sales price of used homes hit $198,500 in March, up 7.9% from the year-earlier period, supported by low inventory.

Recent drops in the sales pace of existing homes have been relatively small, signaling that the market may be stabilizing and sales could bounce higher in coming months, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

LOL! Spin or bullshit? I can’t decide.

Let’s see: first, sales should go up not down from January through June, so any talk about relatively small declines in sales is spin. Second, any talk about bouncing higher is wishful thinking bordering on bullshit. Since he said it without any regard to truth, I think it is bullshit.

Man, how long do you think Mr Yun will spend in Hell for the continuous BS and lies he MUST spew? You know it’s bad when average people can call bullshit. I don’t know anyone who trusts or respects realtors. People are wising up.

The unadjusted sales are still increasing, but seasonally-adjusted numbers are down MoM. Usually, seasonal adjustments are based on the past 2-3 years, so what it means is this March was not as robust as the prior few years. There were still record snow storms affecting this period so I wouldn’t get too worked up about it.

Dumb-
This may surprise you, but it does snow in California. In fact, I went skiing in Big Bear not that long ago. I also remember when it snowed in Hungtinton Beach when I was growing up. What may really surprise you is that it snows in Orange County every 10 years or so, the most recent being in 2011.

All that being said, no the “snow” had nothing to do with the lowest sales since 2008. The years since then have been one of the greatest buying opportunities of our lifetime and many, many investors recognized this fact and started purchasing properties like crazy from 2009-2013. (I guessing by the tone of your posts that you missed out on this opportunity.)

Anyway, once prices rose 20% and interest rates rose 1% many investors couldn’t pencil out buying rentals on a cashflow basis any longer, so they exited the market as buyers. Some are selling and realizing six-figure gains from only a couple years of ownership.

Since investors were a good 30% of the market in California, that loss of demand has caused sales to decline to 2008 levels. Unfortunately, it also means there is a floor on prices because if deals start showing up again, investors will start buying again. That means owner-occupants have less competition, but unfortunately they are stuck paying higher prices.

Dom – To summarize, diminished sales were due to snow wherever it snowed, and where it did not snow, lower sales were do to adjustments; those adjustments reflecting whatever bias the adjuster deems best for their income.

Has Corker explained how the US could apply pressure to Gazprom? By not buying Russia’s natural gas? We don’t buy any now. And how would the US apply pressure to the financial arms of Russia? Russia is holding enouth US treasuries to fund whatever it needs to for quite awhile. Has the federal government considered that Russia’s position relative to the Ukraine may be correct?

“Gazprom accounts for 14 percent of the world’s global natural gas, and is a main supplier to Europe. Nearly half of their exports to the European market travel through Ukraine.”

Does Corker think that Europe is going to just stop buying their natural gas from Gazprom? The US just guaranteed $1 billion of Ukraine loans which the Ukraine will use to pay Russia or Russia will shut off it’s natural gas. Boy, that is some sanction!

Worst damage US could do to Gazprom would be to aid in the installation of a government in Syria that would allow a natural gas pipeline from the south into Turkey. This scenario doesn’t even seem far-fetched, if it isn’t happening already.

The bullion banks once again took the hedge funds to the cleaners last month by shorting gold while the hedge funds were going long. Now, they are going to take them to the other side. The bullion banks have been going long for a couple of weeks, while the hedge funds are selling. The large commercials are at lows for their net short position.

The US wants to disrupt the flow of gas to the EU so it can be a bigger player in the region. It’s all part of the “pivot to asia”.
Unfortunately, big oil has gotten its ass kicked by Putin in the Eurasia pipelines sweepstakes so they’ve had to get Uncle Sam to concoct this wacky Ukraine fiasco to put them back in the running.

“The US wants to disrupt the flow of gas to the EU so it can be a bigger player in the region. It’s all part of the “pivot to asia”.”

Let’s assume this to be true, because it may well be. I read that US LNG could be produced and shipped for about $9 per thousand cubic feet, and Russia produces theirs for $.50 for the same amount. Even if these numbers are off by a lot, does anybody seriously think that Russia will not have a market for it’s natural gas?

“for seven years through 2012, the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents’ homes swelled 67.6% to about 194,000, according to the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the Insight Center for Community Economic Development.

Many more young adults live with their parents than those in their 50s and early 60s live with theirs. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 1.6 million Californians have taken up residence in their childhood bedrooms, according to the data. Though that’s a 33% jump from 2006, the pace is half that of the 50 to 64 age group.”