-or-He saw an opportunity in the Gnats D and took a shot. He made the right play call, the QB failed to execute.

QUOTE (Joegrane @ Sep 27 2017, 07:59 PM)

It was a very strange decision. The Eagles' O was not dominating the Giants' D so there was < 50% chance of success. It took a miracle from heaven to avoid giving up points.

I'm struggling to think of a reason for the decision. This is a wild reason.

The Eagles D was gassed due to the injuries.

They had to play bend-but-not-break due to their slow CBs and decimated DB corp, so the Giants were likely to move the ball down the field successfully using short passes to the WRs. That would have caused the D to be even more gassed when they had to make the Red Zone stand.

So Pederson and Schwartz decided to roll the dice on 4th and 8. If they failed, the D would not have to be on the field so long and would be fresher by the time that the Giants got into the Red Zone.

--------------------

"Bless my eyes this morning, Jah sun is on the rise once again. The way earthly things are going, anything can happen." Robert Nesta Marley (1945 – 1981)

-or-He saw an opportunity in the Gnats D and took a shot. He made the right play call, the QB failed to execute.

As was just pointed out though, there's not just the odds to consider, but the consequences of failure as well as success. In this case, the Giants scored. Wagering the house on a percentage bet may lose the house despite favorable odds.