Category Archives: Geopolitics

For me, revenue growth tells us much more about the quality of the market than does earnings growth. You can’t fudge revenues, though don’t tell that to Enron and Worldcom executives. Top line revenue growth is expected to be good for the next few quarters,

The organization that is the Central Bank of Central Banks just published another update on its views on cryptocurrencies that can be read here. I took the following quote out of the report as a starting point for my analysis: “The essence of good money

This week global fixed-income markets get hit with a few blows to the head and one wicked upper cut. US supply totals $193B on Monday and Tuesday with the Fed hiking rates 25 bps on Wednesday. Supply in the long end of the curve will

On June 1, 2018, MSCI added 234 Chinese A-Shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. A shares trade in Shanghai and Shenzhen and have historically only been available to mainland citizens. This is expected to increase China’s weight in the index modestly from 31 per cent

I have suggested for many years that currency exposure when investing globally should be a major consideration. We can only do something about it when using ETFs. Mutual funds or single stock or bonds do not give us the opportunity to hedge our exposure. To

In 2016, Sweden introduced the idea of creating a digital currency. Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, was the first central bank in the 1660s to issue paper notes. The amount of notes and coins in circulation had been cut in half globally in the past

I have said many times over the years that the bond market is often the best forecaster of the economy, but it’s not typically until the yield curve inverts (when short term yields become higher than long term yields) that we must worry about what

Germany has finally formed a coalition government and the far-right AfD (Alternative for Deutschland) is not the official opposition. Current poling has their support now higher than Merkel’s coalition partner SPD. In Italy, we saw the Eurosceptic alternative M5S party and other hard right parties

Looking out over the next year at what the most likely economic scenario is should help to position your portfolio. When making longer-term forecasts you have to start with some assumptions. The most reasonable assumption is that the Fed will be raising rates, possibly a

There are several indicators and behaviors I like to see to suggest a trading bottom has developed. First, and most important, we need to see strong oversold conditions in market breadth indicators. One of my favorite is the McClellan Oscillator. It looks at the trend