Pro Farmer Tech Talk

Thursday Evening, March 7-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Mar 08, 2013

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Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.50 at
$128.30 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Prices Wednesday hit a 10-month low. The market has been
pressured this week by weak cash cattle market
fundamentals. Cattle futures bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $130.80. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $127.30. First resistance is seen at
$129.00 and then at $129.35. First support is seen at
$128.00 and then at $127.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

April feeder cattle closed up $0.37 at $142.62 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a fresh
contract low. The feeder bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $145.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $140.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $143.37 and
then at $144.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$142.00 and then at the contract low of 141.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.0

April lean hogs closed up $2.55 at $81.80 today. Prices
gapped higher on the daily bar chart and closed nearer the
session high today. Heavy short covering and bargain
hunting were featured. The key "outside markets" were in a
bullish posture for hogs today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. The hog
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, today’s sharp gains do hint that a market low is
now in place. The next upside price breakout objective for
the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $83.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $80.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $82.12 and then at $82.50. First support is
seen at $81.00 and then at today’s low of $80.37. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures last traded up 1/2 cent at
$6.89 today in late trading. Prices were nearer the session
high. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture
for corn today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower
and crude oil prices were higher. Yet, corn bulls could get
no upside traction, and that’s another bearish clue for
corn. Traders are awaiting Friday’s latest USDA supply and
demand report, which traders expect not to be bullish. Corn
bears have the near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls'
next upside price objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$7.12 3/4. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of $6.78 1/2. First
resistance for May corn is seen at today’s high of $6.93
and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.85 and then
at today’s low of $6.82. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

May soybeans were up 7 cents at $14.73 a bushel in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high. The key
"outside markets" were in a bullish posture for soybeans
today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude
oil prices were higher. Traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA
supply and demand report. Soybean bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage as a choppy two-month-old
uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, there
is some very strong overhead resistance at $15.00 that has
checked rallies the past few months. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$13.93 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$14.81 3/4 and then at $14.90. First support is seen at
$14.55 1/2 and then at $14.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

May soybean meal was up $0.60 at $435.90 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range. Bulls have the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the February high of
$443.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $420.00. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $438.30 and then at $440.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $432.60 and then at
$430.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May bean oil was up 32 points at 50.58 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart
today. More short covering was featured today. The key
"outside markets" were in a bullish posture for bean oil
today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude
oil prices were higher. Bean oil bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
51.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 48.67 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.78 cents and
then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents
and then at this week’s low of 49.48 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5

May Chicago SRW wheat was up 8 cents at $6.91 3/4 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering after prices Wednesday hit an 8.5-month low. The
key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for wheat
today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude
oil prices were higher. Prices are still in a seven-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are
awaiting Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $7.26 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last June’s
low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at
$7.08. First support lies at $6.79 and then at $6.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May HRW wheat was up 7 1/4 cents at $7.31 3/4 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session high on short
covering. Prices Wednesday hit an 8.5-month low. HRW bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.75.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.25.
First resistance is seen at $7.40 and then at $7.46. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $7.23 and then at
$7.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May oats were up 1/2 cent at $3.84 3/4 in late trading
today. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of $3.58
1/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of $3.93 1/2. First support lies at $3.80 and
then at $3.78. First resistance is seen at $3.88 and then
at $3.91. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 57 points at 18.77 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh four-week high. Heavy short covering was featured
today. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture
for sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower
and crude oil prices were higher. Follow-through buying
strength and a weekly high close on Friday would give the
bulls fresh upside technical momentum to suggest that a
market bottom is in place. But right now the sugar bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
February high of 19.02 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 18.20 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 18.81 cents and then at 18.90 cents.
First support is seen at 18.59 cents and then at 18.46
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May coffee closed up 190 points at 143.15 cents today.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were in a
bullish posture for coffee today as the U.S. dollar index
was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. The
coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 147.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the February contract low of
137.60 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 144.00
cents and then at 145.00 cents. First support is seen at
142.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 140.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May cocoa closed up $28 at $2,070 a ton. Prices closed near
the session high today after hitting a fresh contract low
early on. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish
posture for cocoa today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Prices
scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart
today, and if there is good follow-through buying on Friday
then a bullish "key reversal" up on the daily bar chart
would be confirmed. That would be an early clue that a
market bottom is in place. But right now the cocoa bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $2,156. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,073
and then at this week’s high of $2,085. First support is
seen at $2,050 and then at today’s contract low of $2,034.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

May cotton closed down 74 points at 86.50 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw some
profit-taking pressure. Prices Wednesday hit a 9.5-month
high. The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 83.00
cents. First resistance is seen 87.00 cents and then at
this week’s high of 87.59. First support is seen at today’s
low of 86.21 cents and then at 85.84 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

May orange juice closed up 115 points at $1.2390 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. The bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at the February high of $1.3200.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.2000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.2480 and then at this week’s high of $1.2600. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.2200 and then at
$1.2100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

May lumber futures closed up the $10.00 limit at $399.70
today. Prices are back near the recent contract high. Bulls
have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at $384.00. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $410.00. First resistance is seen
at the contract high of $403.00 and then at $405.00. First
support is seen at $395.00 and then at today’s low of
$391.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

*. METALS: April gold futures closed down $0.40 an ounce at
$1,575.30 today. Prices closed near the session low today
in subdued trading. Gold prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next
upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $1,619.70. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the February low of $1,554.40. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $1,585.80 and then at $1,590.00.
First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,564.00 and
then at the February low of $1,554.40. Wyckoff’s Market
Rating: 3.0

May silver futures closed up $0.007 an ounce at $28.81
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. May
silver bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices
are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $29.495 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $27.925. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $29.14 and then
at $29.495. Next support is seen at this week’s low of
$28.43 and then at the February low of $28.315. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 230 points at 351.60 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering. Copper bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 360.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the November low of 343.75
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 353.45
cents and then at this week’s high of 354.45 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 349.25 cents and then at
last week’s low of 347.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

*. ENERGIES: April crude oil closed up $1.13 a barrel at
$91.56 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on short covering. A lower U.S. dollar index was a bullish
factor for crude oil today. The crude oil bears still have
the near-term technical advantage. The next near-term
upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close solid chart resistance at $93.00 a
barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support atthis week’s low of $89.33.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $91.73 and then
at $92.00. First support is seen at $91.00 and then at
today’s low of $90.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

April heating oil closed down 8 points at $2.9748 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at the December low of $2.8900. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $2.9855 and then at $3.0000. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.9580 and then at
$2.9200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

April (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 36 points at
$3.1283 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. The
gasoline bears have the near-term technical advantage. A
bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.2000.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $3.0000. First resistance is
seen at $3.1500 and then at this week’s high of $3.1719.
First support is seen at $3.1000 and then at this week’s
low of $3.0786. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

April natural gas closed up 11.6 cents at $3.586 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Nat gas bulls
today gained the slight near-term technical advantage
following a bullish weekly U.S. storage report. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the January high
of $3.67. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $3.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.603 and then at $3.67. First support is seen $3.50 and
then at today’s low of $3.463. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 108 points at 1.3113 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today on short covering. The Euro bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 1.3325. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2900. First resistance for the
Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3127 and then at 1.3172.
Next support is seen at 1.3030 and then at this week’s low
of 1.2972. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

The June Japanese yen closed down 89 points at 1.0550
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.0800. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0400.
First resistance is seen at 1.0600 and then at today’s high
of 1.0668. First support is seen at today’s contract low of
1.0523 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The June Swiss franc closed up 57 points at 1.0622 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The Swissy bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.0700. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.0638 and then at 1.0700. First
support is seen at 1.0584 and then at this week’s low of
1.0549. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June Australian dollar closed up 26 points at 1.0190
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering. Bears still have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0275. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 1.0038. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0221 and then at 1.0250. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0141 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5

The June Canadian dollar closed up 14 points at .9689
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. Prices are still in a two-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at .9760. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9600. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of .9701 and then at this week’s high of
.9728. First support is seen at last week’s low of .9646
and then at .9600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The June British pound closed down 26 points at 1.5007
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a
fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.5250. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.4800. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.5074 and then at 1.5140. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of 1.4960 and 1.4900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .372 at 82.335
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw
profit taking from recent gains. The bulls still have the
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 83.000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 81.37.
Next resistance lies at 82.500 and then at this week’s high
of 82.830. First support is seen at 82.165 and then at
82.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed down 30/32 at 141 29/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today on weak long
liquidation amid the "risk-on" investor attitudes this week
as the DJIA hits new highs. Bond market bears have the
near-term technical advantage. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of 140
23/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 144
even. First resistance is seen at 142 16/32 and then at 143
even. First support is seen at today’s low of 141 28/32 and
then at 141 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed down 16.5 (32nds) at 130.22.0
today. Prices closed near the session low today on more
profit taking and weak long liquidation. Bears have
regained the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the January high of 131.14.0. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
130.00.0. First resistance is seen at 131.00.0 and then at
131.08.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 130.21.0
and then at 130.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer today, with the Dow Jones Industrial average hitting
another new all-time record high and the S&P index at a
fresh five-year high. The most important U.S. economic
report of the month, the employment situation report for
February, is due out Friday morning. The key non-farm
payroll number is expected to come in at up 157,000, while
the unemployment rate is forecast at 7.8%. Look for more
active trading in the markets in the immediate aftermath of
Friday morning’s jobs report. China issues its monthly
trade data on Friday, and that data, too, will be closely
monitored. The Euro currency and European stock markets
were boosted Thursday by a successful Spanish bond auction
that saw good investor demand and lower yields. The
European Central Bank also held its monthly meeting
Thursday and announced no major changes to its monetary
policy. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi’s remarks at his
press conference following the meeting were deemed bullish
the Euro currency as he gave no hints of further monetary
easing by the ECB. The Bank of England’s monthly meeting
Thursday also saw no change in interest rates or monetary
policy, as expected. The Bank of Japan also held a policy
meeting Thursday that saw no major changes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 11.00 at 2,799.25
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 2,871.75. The bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the February low of
2,689.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
2,809.25 and then at 2,825.00. First support is seen at
2,775.00 and then at 2,761.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 3.70 at 1,542.80.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and poked to
another fresh five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1,575.00. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid support at the
February low of 1,482.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,545.20 and then at 1,550.00. First
support is seen at 1,530.00 and then at 1,524.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed up 51 points at 14,316 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh all-time
high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 14,500.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
13,770. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of
14,332 and then at 14,400. First support is seen at 14,250
and then at 14,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.