The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.

Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.

Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollarsDamage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is comingIt's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:with the season getting closer a surprize is always possible as the atomsphere sets in motion its summer time patterns things will pick up at a steady pace epac is on its way and atlantic may not be that far behind her

Thanks, I agree. What I think is that all the beneficial heavy rainfall would be good for most of us in the 'Sunshine State' but if it's very heavy and prolonged, there would be a downside to this mostly positive event--the flooding...as we've seen with many drought busters. What's possible is that this huge tropical system would bring incredible amounts of rainfall to us, enough to completely relieve drought conditions, but unfortunately make way for dangerous flooding...like Arlene in Mexico last June. Let's hope it's just a drought-buster.

Near as I can tell, that map shows a "GlobalFlooding" of at least 110metres above presentday sea-level in all areas...Which is nearly 40metres above that which would occur with a total meltdown of all ice sheets and glaciers -- 72metres would be the highest reasonable estimate -- and at least 30metres above even if one includes extra sea-height along specific coastlines in the NorthernHemisphere due to the change in the gravitational equipotential across Earth's surface.

There ain't no way India would be split from the Eurasian continent, or for Australia to be split in two.

Quoting aspectre:120 LargoFl: gee What would the world look like..IF....... [FloodedEarth map]

Near as I can tell, that map shows a "GlobalFlooding" of at least 110metres above presentday sea-level in all areas...Which is nearly 40metres above that which would occur with a total meltdown of all ice sheets and glaciers -- 72metres would be the highest reasonable estimate -- and at least 30metres above even if one includes extra sea-height along specific coastlines in the NorthernHemisphere due to the change in the gravitational equipotential across Earth's surface.

There ain't no way India would be split from the Eurasian continent, or for Australia to be split in two.

You have to add in heat expansion, but I am not sure that it would be that much.

I would just like to point out (whine) that so far tonight, there have effectively been two rounds of storms, with a third on the way... and NONE have impacted my area. I've had two storms within 3 miles (at the same time), and I had the other set go poof about 3 miles away. If I find the person with the anti-rain shield... someone will need to bail me out of jail.

That said... there were some unverified reports of a tornadic storm near Katy.

Hey, Kori. What's your take on the Caribbean Development hurricane model scenario? Could Florida see flooding, if anything is to develop?

I'm not really going to say for sure that we're going to get a tropical cyclone out of this. But regardless, it appears likely that a large surge of moisture and its associated cloudiness will begin to overspread the far eastern Pacific/western Caribbean over the next 7 to 10 days. The potential is definitely there for a monsoonal circulation to develop within that general area. However, the GFS and ECMWF want to develop another tropical cyclone to the east of 90E at about that time, which, given the strength of the system in these models, could effectively cap any potential for tropical development in the Caribbean. At the very least some rain does seem likely for you guys though, possibly heavy at times, as the western Atlantic ridge erodes with the passage of a weakening cold front, and pulls in tropical moisture from the Caribbean.

I guess! But still, the rest of us care more for the Atlantic Basin. But if you're that bored, then knock yourself out.

I don't get too excited about these early-season developments in the Atlantic, because they rarely amount to much. We can actually get major hurricanes this time of year in the Pacific (see Adolph in 2001).

I'm not really going to say for sure that we're going to get a tropical cyclone out of this. But regardless, it appears likely that a large surge of moisture and its associated cloudiness will begin to overspread the far eastern Pacific/western Caribbean over the next 7 to 10 days. The potential is definitely there for a monsoonal circulation to develop within that general area. However, the GFS and ECMWF want to develop another tropical cyclone to the east of 90E at about that time, which, given the strength of the system in these models, could effectively cap any potential for tropical development in the Caribbean. At the very least some rain does seem likely for you guys though, possibly heavy at times, as the western Atlantic ridge erodes with the passage of a weakening cold front, and pulls in tropical moisture from the Caribbean.

Thanks. I'll keep an eye out for that time frame. It should be more of a good thing for Florida, should a heavy rainfall event develop, but flooding can be a concern should it be a major event. Then again what goes up must come down, so there are both ups and downs with a major tropical moisture event.

I can't believe how much rain I have had in Baytown this last month! My yard is thick and green for weeks now! (St Augustine carpet grass). Emptied rain gauge with just under 2 inches of rain this morning and it has been raining on and off this evening! I am not complaining! Oh yes, now I remember I should not be surprised as it is because of AGW and my F150 I drive 5 miles to work on week days is causing climate change extremes, duh!

Quoting BtnTx:I can't believe how much rain I have had in Baytown this last month! My yard is thick and green for weeks now! (St Augustine carpet grass). Emptied rain gauge with just under 2 inches of rain this morning and it has been raining on and off this evening! I am not complaining! Oh yes, now I remember I should not be surprised as it is because of AGW and my F150 I drive 5 miles to work on week days is causing climate change extremes, duh!

Only an idiot would post this nonsense on this pro AGW fair and balanced blog! I am probably banned after being the first wu member see member since date...

Quoting BtnTx:Only an idiot would post this nonsense on this pro AGW fair and balanced blog! I am probably banned after being the first wu member see member since date...

So you're proud of expelling fossil fuels? Do you want a cookie for being a political hero? Or just attention?Do you like being destructive and inefficient? What is to be proud of about that?

I drive a gasoline vehicle too but that's because I can't afford a practical electric vehicle because the market is still not quite ready to accept the electric vehicle fully like it should, I'm certainly not proud of emissions that it releases, and i hope most others aren't either.

So you're proud of expelling fossil fuels? Do you want a cookie for being a political hero? Or just attention?Do you like being destructive and inefficient? What is to be proud of about that?

I drive a gasoline vehicle too but that's because I can't afford a practical electric vehicle because the market is still not quite ready to accept the electric vehicle fully like it should, I'm certainly not proud of emissions that it releases, and i hope most others aren't either.

The point was I drive gasoline vehicle very short distance. electrict vehicle technology is on the way. But the electric vehicle gets charged up by what kind of power source.

So you're proud of expelling fossil fuels? Do you want a cookie for being a political hero? Or just attention?Do you like being destructive and inefficient? What is to be proud of about that?

I drive a gasoline vehicle too but that's because I can't afford a practical electric vehicle because the market is still not quite ready to accept the electric vehicle fully like it should, I'm certainly not proud of emissions that it releases, and i hope most others aren't either.

For anyone thinking the cold front moving through the Gulf Coast will significantly alter areal sea surface temperatures, think again. With little wind in the forecast (not to mention the flow won't be northwesterly) to reinforce the cooling effect of said cloudiness, the Gulf will be lucky to cool by a half a degree in five days.

Quoting KoritheMan:For anyone thinking the cold front moving through the Gulf Coast will significantly alter areal sea surface temperatures, think again. With little wind in the forecast (not to mention the flow won't be northwesterly) to reinforce the cooling effect of said cloudiness, the Gulf will be lucky to cool by a half a degree in five days.