A Structural Land-Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach

This article proposes a proactive approach for analyzing agricultural adaptation to climate
change based on a structural land-use model wherein farmers maximize profit by allocating
their land between crop-technology bundles. The profitability of the bundles is a function of
four technological attributes via which climate variables‟ effect is channeled: yield potential;
input requirements; yields' sensitivity to input use; and farm-level management costs.
Proactive adaptation measures are derived by identifying the technological attributes via
which climate variables reduce overall agricultural profitability, despite adaptation by land
reallocation among bundles. By applying the model to Israel, we find that long-term losses
stem from yield potential reductions driven by forecasted increases in temperature, implying
that adaptation efforts should target more heat-tolerant crop varieties and technologies.