Human-caused heat forcing. From the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the world’s oceans, there’s no safe place to put it. For where-ever it goes it sets in place conditions with the potential to unleash gargantuan forces.

Inertia. Namely, the massive inertia in the Earth climate system creating a perceived ability to resist rapid destabilization due to the human insult. It’s the one hope scientists and policy-makers alike pinned on the possibility of bringing human greenhouse gas emissions down in time to prevent radical and damaging change.

Rapid glacier and ice sheet destabilization. What, by 2014, became understood as the new reality, as an ever-increasing number of the world’s glaciers displayed far less resilience than previously anticipated and were set in motion to an unstoppable and catastrophic reunion with the world’s oceans by human warming.

(The locations of West Antarctica’s ‘butcher board’ glaciers — those that are doomed to an inevitable embrace with the Amundsen Sea. Image source: NASA.)

At issue are six massive glaciers representing more than 1/3 of total the ice mass of West Antarctica and what could well be called its entire weak flank.

As early as 1968, this massive section of West Antarctica was listed as unstable. Since that time, human heat forcing has pumped higher and higher volumes of warmth deep into the Pacific Ocean. The warmth pooled in the depths, building, even as it rose up beneath Antarctica. Ocean circulation and Ekman pumping along the coast of Antarctica brought this warm water up from the depths where it traveled along the continental shelf zone to encounter Antarctica’s mile-high glaciers. The warm water did its work, unseen, for a time. Eating away at the bottoms of these glaciers and speeding their slide to the sea. The increased glacial melt and related fresh water outflow put a kind of cold water cap on the Southern Ocean around Antarctica. This cold cap gave the ever-warming bottom waters no outlet to the surface and so the heat concentrated where it was needed least — at the bases of massive ocean-fronting glaciers.

One section of West Antarctica, composed of the six glaciers now listed as undergoing irreversible collapse, was particularly vulnerable to this basalt melt and ocean upwelling heat forcing. For the glaciers there rested on a section of continental shelf well below sea level — extending scores of miles beneath the ice and on into interior Antarctica. As a result, newly undercut glaciers are flooded until they float, creating lift, reducing friction and rapidly speeding the glacier’s plunge seaward. Even worse, few sub-glacier ridges — speed bumps that glaciologists call grounding points — interrupt the more rapid flow of these glaciers once initiated.

(NASA slide-show illustrating the process of basal melt and grounding line retreat)

“The collapse of this sector of West Antarctica appears to be unstoppable. The fact that the retreat is happening simultaneously over a large sector suggests it was triggered by a common cause, such as an increase in the amount of ocean heat beneath the floating sections of the glaciers. At this point, the end of this sector appears to be inevitable.”

In other words, over the course of decades-to-centuries, these glaciers will disintegrate and slide into the sea until they are no more. Years from now, their names will be a distant memory, reminders of a faded and far better time.

At Least 15 Feet of Sea Level Rise From Glacial Melt Now Locked-in

This year, the pace of new announcements for massive glaciers undergoing destabilization or irreversible collapse could best be described as terrifying and unprecedented. And each new announcement brings with it starker implications for both the ultimate pace and scope of global sea level rise.

(Current pace of global sea level rise at 3.26 mm per year is likely now set to rapidly accelerate coincident with the rapid acceleration and melt of an ever-increasing number of the world’s glaciers. Image source: AVISO.)

The total water composed in the moving and destabilized glaciers worldwide is now at least enough to raise world ocean levels by a total of 15 feet. But the inevitable loss of these glaciers tells a darker tale, one that hints that the 23 feet worth of sea level rise in all of Greenland’s ice and the 11-13 feet of sea level rise in all of West Antarctica’s ice may well be locked in to what is a growing daisy chain of explosive destabilization if human greenhouse gas levels aren’t radically drawn down.

In continuing to emit greenhouse gasses, we make the situation ever worse by imposing a heightening heat pressure on glacial systems that will both speed their release and ensure that an ever growing portion of the Earth’s ice ultimately melts. The current forcing though both extreme and dangerous is small compared to the potential forcing should we not rapidly reign in the human emission.

68 is so far out of wack for that area. We would see 68 in Hay River in July / August 30+ years ago. Inuvik (near delta) wouldn’t see 68.

Since it is entering melt season there will not really be any refreeze. The river will be getting a real bad hit. The ice roads will be closed including ice bridges that service remote communities.
Transit to Tuk would be open to shipping early, except for the inability for the boats to get there from the Synchro in Hay River (river needs to clear). It should reduce the chance for an epic discharge out of the delta into the ocean (this is good). Fire danger will increase through the NWT. There will be less absorption in the land, more run off.

Next four days remain above freezing for the region. After that we get a cool snap that brings back the upper 20s and low 30s. Overall, very warm for this time of year. As you say, June/July temps in May.

Colorado Bob

A new report from a panel of former Pentagon leaders calls climate change a direct threat to national security and the U.S. economy, as extreme weather stands to stretch troops thin, spark unrest in unstable regions, and unravel global networks of trade and resources.

The authors –- 16 retired three- and four-star generals and admirals who compose the CNA Corporation’s Military Advisory Board (MAB) — blame a warming planet for, in part, aggravating tensions among some nations.

Their study, released Tuesday night, dubs climate change “a catalyst for conflict” against a backdrop of increasingly decentralized power structures around the world.

And when it comes to the monied interests, taking out the banks would be child’s play compared to taking out the fossil-fuel interests. All that’s needed is to not bail out the banks the next time they create a crisis… IF our Senators and Representatives have the courage and willpower, HAHAHA.

Colorado Bob

“The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said.
“The strengthening of these winds has been particularly prominent over the past 70 years, and by combining our observations with climate models we can clearly link this to rising greenhouse gas levels.”

Colorado Bob

The dip in the chart above ( Image source: AVISO.) has an interesting explanation .

A unique and complex set of circumstances came together over Australia from 2010 to 2011 to cause Earth’s smallest continent to be the biggest contributor to the observed drop in global sea level rise during that time, finds a new study co-authored and co-funded by NASA.

In 2011, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and the University of Colorado at Boulder reported that between early 2010 and summer 2011, global sea level fell sharply, by about a quarter of an inch, or half a centimeter. Using data from the NASA/German Aerospace Center’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft, they showed that the drop was caused by the very strong La Nina that began in late 2010. That La Nina changed rainfall patterns all over our planet, moving huge amounts of Earth’s water from the ocean to the continents. The phenomenon was short-lived, however.http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130821144831.htm

This is generally consistent with the ‘Back to the Pliocene’ model for global warming. In which 2-3K higher temperatures go along with the loss of the WAIS, shrinkage of the EAIS and the loss of most if not all of the GIS, with 25m higher sea levels.

This is generally backed by paleogeographic evidence; the main uncertainty involved is the rate at which we move towards such a world. And the nature of the change itself, because in one aspect – namely the amount of disequlibrium – current warming is unique.

Colorado Bob

The “unstoppable collapse” of glaciers in West Antarctica announced by scientists this week has one key cause: shifting winds. Stronger winds are pushing warm water under coastal glaciers and melting them. The process is expected to intensify in the coming decades.

Two research papers published Monday found that six major glaciers along the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica are thinning more rapidly than expected and contributing to sea-level rise. Warm water is coming into contact with the bottom of the glaciers as they hang over the edge of the ocean and/or as they “float” over bedrock that is below sea level. (Read “Rising Seas” in National Geographic magazine.)

“Exactly how the warmer waters got there is still somewhat under discussion,” says Richard Alley, a professor of Earth sciences at Penn State University in State College, Pennsylvania, who was not involved in either paper but who has studied glaciers extensively.

Colorado Bob

Tens of Thousands of Reindeer Die of Extreme Weather in Russia’s North

More than 60,000 reindeer died of starvation over winter and spring in the far northern Yamal-Nenets autonomous district, the regional governor’s office said.

The high mortality rate is likely to have been caused by extreme weather conditions in the Arctic region, such as heavy rain and snow, which made it more difficult for the deer to feed themselves, the statement said, Interfax reported Tuesday.

A operation is now underway to herd the reindeers to greener pastures, though many of the animals may be too weak to travel, the statement said.

This is what I jotted down about climate change outpacing the ability of species to mutate and adjust. Thereby causing a population collapse during the change, it only stops when the rate of change stabilizes. The arctic food chain is recalibrating as best as it can, which is not very well. The followup will be a reduction in the parasitic insect population, which feeds birds. Carnivores will feel this as well.

The base grasses are a lynchpin for the entire food chain in the area.

Mark from New England

Not directly related to Antarctica or melting glaciers, but I did a double-take when checking the national weather map and forecast in today’s paper. Most of California is forecast to be in the 90s today, with LA with a high of 99, San Diego at 94, San Fran at 90 and even Portland, Oregon at 89.

Is this way above normal for the west coast in mid-May? If it’s this hot in May out there, what’s July going to be like?

Mark from New England

Don’t worry – I’m no Republican! I’m a left-leaning Independent and vote accordingly. I’d love to see Bernie Sanders run just to inject some sanity into the process. Last time I voted for a Republican was McCain in the 2000 primary, in an attempt to keep Bush at bay. That didn’t work out too well! And that was before McCain lost his mind… It’s sad, because he was strong on environmental protection before the Tea Party came along and pushed the Republicans to the far, far right.

See, even McCain is a captive to the party. If he voices his opinions on climate change and doesn’t haul the Koch/Fossil Fuel party line, he gets cut off at the knees in the primary. If he switches parties or goes independent, he risks getting buried in a red state.

My problem with republicans is not all republicans, it’s the controlling factors that force them to serve such destructive interests or risk near-certain exile.

If McCain had a modicum of integrity he would turn and bite the hand of this harmful political force and take the consequences of being a moral man, whatever they may be. Instead, he’s in the Hanoi Hilton all over again.

In any case, I’m less concerned about you being a republican and more concerned about a general re-sympathy with the republican/conservative brand. Look what’s happening in England — ‘solar blight’ and ‘ice contaminated’ — that’s conservative double-speak if I’ve ever seen it!

Mark from New England

A fellow New Hampshire-ite! I live in Nashua, after moving north from CT to MA and now here. Where are you? Perhaps we can join up to convince Senator Kelly Ayotte to break with her fellow Republicans in obstructing action on climate change. I have a sneaking suspicion she’ll be a prime candidate for the VP position come 2016. It’d be great to ‘flip her’ before then. I have yet to look into her sources of campaign funding, though I have my suspicions.

Republicans have a long way to go before I’d ever trust them on climate change. Either they’ve talked a good game (Bush) and sabotaged actual action or they’ve outright denied the existence of an obvious and growing problem. In comparison I have the solid policies of the Solar Shot initiative, major CAFE standard increases, regulating CO2 emissions and other policy progress standards put forward by the Obama Administration. Had the Republicans not obstructed, we would have even stronger policy measures.

Republicans and mainstream media have done a great job propagandizing the actions of the Obama administration to make them appear ineffective but, despite all the broad-ranging static and mind fogging, we will install 6 gigawatts of solar power this year, about 8 times that seen in 2008 after Bush.

My view is, if you want to see that number fall, put more Republicans in office. Sympathy and irrational giving of second chances to Republicans, in my view, is more a kind of capture bonding or Stockholm Syndrome. They’ll wreck things all over again and they’ll do it worse this time.

I wouldn’t call this a ‘strong’ Jet Stream. A strong Jet would be divided north-south between hot and cold. It would be a relatively flat line and it would be high velocity. We have one of three — high velocity for spring time. Otherwise the Jet is a mangled mess of Rossby type waves and cut off systems.

Gerald Spezio

Kevin Jones

Robert. Mark from New England. There is a bi-partisan, (I’d favor non-partisan) anti-corruption movement brewing in this first-in-the-nation primary state. For some of its’ members there’s a belief that to deal as best as we can at this late date with what I call the Triple E crises: Environment Economy Energy a nation-wide housecleaning is required. I know, I know. Some call it a moonshot. Be happy to share contact info Mark and talk anytime. How do we do this with privacy issues? Thanks

Mark from New England

Yes, I agree with you about not putting contact information here in the blog. Robert, is there a way for Kevin and me, or people in general who may live close to each other, to connect via this website?

In general, I see the greater influence of large corporations such as oil companies to be primarily conservative/republican blame due to their failures RE Citizen’s United and campaign finance. Their ideology pushed for the situation we’re in now and so we have it.

Kevin Jones

pintada

On topic –
You know, as sea level rises, it puts incredible force on the glacier in the upward direction. If there is a mile of ice above sea level, and only a few feet below, it doesn’t matter. If however, there is a point where the glacier is nearly balanced, a few inches of sea level rise can float a vast area of ice. That mechanism would then raise sea level abruptly and do the same thing to another nearly floating glacier. Which would …

In that scenario, never mind melting. I don’t know how much ice is just balanced. Probably no one does.

Fully agree –
…the phrases, “corporate contamination of Democracy” and “corporate-contaminated Democracy” should enter our vocabulary to mean:
– a corruption in local, state, and national electoral processes,
– an excessive and damaging influence in our media and educational system,
– an excessive and damaging influence in domestic and foreign policy
– and much, much more, but that’s a reasonable start…
—
Don’t want to turn this excellent and informative website into a political forum, but I read the above phrases elsewhere and thought it worthy of sharing, here.

Well the worst of corporate influence has been with us since the 1920s, even the First World War, through the Manufacture Of Consent, which turned democracy in the US from something participatory into something to be passively consumed (preferably in front of a TV) and then vote for Brand X Candidate of your “choice”.

pintada

Sorry, I miss-spoke:
Since the glacier is at near equilibrium, when it floated, sea level would not rise (much). But, any force that it was exerting to hold the ice upstream would instantly be significantly reduced.

This set of forces is one of the major factors speeding up the vulnerable West Antarctica glaciers. A grounded submerged glacier doesn’t contribute much to sea level rise, but a floating, melting one does (displaces more water). In addition, the loss of the edge ice causes the interior glaciers to slide seaward with much higher velocity.

3 fires now within 30 miles of my house here in SD. The closest is ~5 miles away @ 1680 acres. The winds are picking up quite a bit now too (these Santa Ana’s are kicking up the wind in the afternoon). I-5 just north of Oceanside is closed for N Bound traffic. Temp is 97 degrees on my patio. Apparently small fires popping up off of I-8 as well.