I find the “other” option a bit off-putting. What if Thaddeus Fragmeyer declares that he is no longer running? Does that count? I think you should limit it to the names on your list, or add others if you feel they are serious candidates. See, for example, mvguy’s specificity here: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/41815

As to the end date, why not just make it the Convention? No need to extend it then, and people might be disinclined to participate if they think it will close before there is any “action” — so to speak.

I set the 1 March end date because I feel, that after 11 primaries/caucus’ have been taken place in January and February, I am sure that we will see several dropping out of the race. If by chance, we do do see anyone dropping out by 1 March, I will extend the market. I have changed the “Other Candidate” to “Other/ None” based on ecotax’s comment. Thanks, for your input, EdG1975 and ecotax.

Rationales

"Perry is going home to reassess his campaign. You know what that means."

amsiegel bought Rick Perry at 18.69%

January 03, 2012 @ 09:30pm PST

"Rick Perry will probably stay until the Texas vote takes place 6 March 2011.."

SneakyPete sold Rick Perry at 26.60%

December 05, 2011 @ 11:48am PST

historical trend

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