01/11/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal slumped to their lowest levels since August on harvest pressure and upwardly revised private crop production estimates. A firmer US dollar didn't help either, even though yesterday's export sales announcement brings total US commitments on soybeans to 86.4% of the USDA forecast for the 2013/2014 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 58.4% for this time of the year. Informa raised their US 2013 soybean production forecast from 3.176 billion bushels to 3.298 billion, with yields increased from 41.7 bu/acre to 43.3 bu/acre. That announcement came during trading hours. After the close FCStone released some similar numbers, pegging production at 3.27 billion bushels (from 3.16 billion previously) and yields at 42.8 bu/acre (versus 41.4 bu/acre previously). The USDA were at 3.149 billion and 41.2 bu/acre back in September. There are reports that privately JP Morgan/Cargill estimated 2013 US soybean yields at 43.5 bu/acre. The IGC yesterday raised their forecasts for 2013/14 soybean production in the US (from 85.7 MMT to 86.0 MMT), Brazil (from 86.5 MMT to 87.6 MMT) and Argentina (from 52.5 MMT to 54.5 MMT). Soybean exports from the two big South American countries were also raised. Brazil is now seen exporting 44.5 MMT of soybeans in 2013/14 versus a previous forecast of 43 MMT and a 5.5% increase on the 42.2 MMT shipped in 2012/13. Argentina's soybean exports in the season ahead were raised from 11.8 MMT to 12.8 MMT, a whopping 62% rise on 2012/13. All of this sets the scene nicely for a HUGE November WASDE report from the USDA next Friday. At least with last weekend's change from BST to GMT that means that this should be released at 4pm London time, rather than the 5pm on a Friday that many of this year's WASDE reports have been given to us on this year. In other news the USDA announced the sale of 115 TMT of beans to China for 2013/14 delivery under the daily reporting system. The latest Commitment of Traders report for the week ending Oct. 22 shows funds sitting on a net long in beans of 119,295 contracts. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.66, down 14 1/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.51 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $394.90, down $8.70; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.59, up 26 points. For the week beans were down 34 cents on the front month, meal dropped $28.60 whilst oil rose 86 points.

Corn: Corn closed with modest losses, but even so this was still a fresh more than 3-year closing low for a front month. Informa raised their US 2013 corn production forecast from 14.01 billion bushels to 14.223 billion. Yields were increased from 158.8 bu/acre previously to 161.2 bu/acre. The USDA was at 13.843 billion and 155.3 bu/acre back in September. There are reports that privately JP Morgan/Cargill estimated 2013 US corn yields at 164.0 bu/acre. The IGC yesterday surprisingly raised their estimate for Argentine corn production in 2013/14 from 25.0 MMT to 26.0 MMT (although below the previous year's output of 30.0 MMT). They also increased exports by the same 1 MMT to 17 MMT. Their estimates for corn production in Brazil and Ukraine were left unchanged at 72 MMT and 28 MMT respectively. Exports from these two are seen at 19 MMT in the case of Brazil (versus 22 MMT in 2012/13) and 18 MMT for Ukraine (versus 12.8 MMT in 2012/13). The IGC also raised their forecast for US corn production from 350 MMT to 352 MMT, a 28.6% rise on last year. Informa cut their Argentine corn production forecast from 27 MMT to 25 MMT. In Brazil they see the total corn crop at 71.1 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate. They increased their production forecast in China by 1 MMT to 216 MMT. The USDA attaché in Argentina estimated the 2013/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT versus the September USDA estimate of 26.0 MMT. Argentina's 2013/14 corn exports were forecast at 16.0 MMT versus a USDA estimate of 18.0 MMT. Argentina’s Ag Ministry's weekly crop progress report said that corn planting there is 31% complete versus 42% a year ago. Monday night's crop progress report from the USDA is expected to show the US corn harvest at around 75% complete, with soybeans maybe as much as 90% done. The Midwest has seen rain during the second half of this week, which may have slowed harvesting a little. A drier weekend should allow harvesting to pick up again, although there are more showers in the forecast midweek before drier weather returns into next weekend. South Korea's KFA bought 60 TMT of US corn for March shipment along with a similar sized cargo of European corn for April shipment. South Korea have been big buyers of mostly US corn for delivery in the new year this week. The latest Commitment of Traders report to Oct. 22 shows funds sitting on a 159,242 short in CBOT corn. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.27 1/4, down 1 cent; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.37 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents. For the week front month corn was down 12 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market was flat to 7 cents lower. Informa now have this year's Russian wheat crop estimated at 53.0 MMT versus previous estimate of 54.5 MMT. They also trimmed their Australian wheat crop estimate to 25.0 MMT from previous estimate of 26.0 MMT, and cut Argentina's crop from 11.0 MMT to only 9.8 MMT. They are also starting to look at next year's production potential in some places. They have Russia's 2014 wheat crop estimated at 48.5 MMT and Ukraine's at 20.5 MMT. Winter grains are said to be only planted on 85.8% of the original target area, according to the Ag Ministry there. Things are better in Ukraine where 93% of the intended wheat area has been planted, although how these late-planted crops will get through winter and look in the spring is far from certain. The USDA attaché in Argentina estimated the 2013/14 wheat crop there at 10.5 MMT versus the USDA's own September estimate of 12.0 MMT. The attaché estimated Argentina's 2013/14 wheat exports at 4.2 MMT versus the current USDA estimate of 6.0 MMT. Others think that only 2-3 MMT is more likely. The latest Commitment of Traders report to Oct. 22 sees fund money now sitting on a wheat long of 29,203 contracts, having been short for almost the entire last 12 months. South Korea's MFG bought 55 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Jan shipment in a tender. Yesterday's export sales update from the USDA means that total all wheat commitments now stand at 68.4% of the USDA forecast for the season, versus a 5 year average of 57.4%. Sales of 301,000 MT are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The USDA will update us on winter wheat plantings and crop conditions in the US on Monday night. A week ago they said that the US winter wheat crop was 86% planted, just above the five year average of 85%. Good/excellent crop conditions were pegged at 61% versus only 40% a year previously. The wheat/corn price differential is what seems to be holding wheat back. In Chicago this gap is now over $2.40 versus $1.38 1/2 twelve months ago. Today's price action seems to be related to unwinding of spreads that were long Kansas wheat against shorts held in Chicago. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.67 3/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.33 1/2, down 7 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.25 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents. For the week that means that Chicago wheat was 23 cents lower, with Kansas down 15 1/2 cents and Minneapolis losing 19 1/2 cents.

For the week London wheat posted a net loss of GBP0.25/tonne, with Paris wheat up EUR2.75/tonne, Paris corn falling EUR13.25/tonne and Paris rapeseed rising EUR1.75/tonne. The premium that wheat commands over corn widened from an already fairly large EUR27.75/tonne (15.7%) a week ago to a gaping EUR44.50/tonne (27.3%).

The International Grains Council tweaked their world wheat production numbers last night, pegging the global wheat crop at 696.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 693.0 MMT.

There were cuts for Europe, Argentina and Russia and rises for Canada and Kazakhstan versus last month. Significantly perhaps, even the countries with cuts this month still see production sharply higher than a year ago.

They cut their forecast for EU-28 all wheat production from 143.3 MMT to 142.9 MMT, although that's still a rise of 8.6% on last year. Argentina's potential output was trimmed from 11.0 MMT to 10.5 MMT, a 23.5% increase on 2012/13. Russia's crop was also shaved by 0.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT, which still represents an increase of 34% on 12 months ago.

Production was raised in Canada, from 30.5 MMT to a record 33.0 MMT, a 9.2% increase on a year ago. Output in Kazakhstan meanwhile was upped from 14.0 MMT to 16.0 MMT, a leap of 63% versus 2012/13.

They also added 0.8 MMT to their forecast for EU-28 corn production to 65 MMT, a 15.5% rise compared to last year.

Despite dropping Russia's wheat production forecast, the IGC raised their estimate for exports there from 14.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT, up 29.5% versus 2012/13.

The Russian Ministry said that the grain harvest now stands at 91 MMT in bunker weight off 92.5% of the planned area, and compared with 72.2 MMT twelve months previously. The wheat harvest has now reached 53.6 MMT off 96.9% of the intended area versus 39.6 MMT at this point last year. Winter grain plantings have been completed on 14 million hectares of the planned 16.4 million, versus 15.5 million this time last year.

Ukraine winter grains have been planted on 7.6 million hectares versus 7.9 million 12 months ago. Growers there have now got 93% of their intended wheat area in (at 6.2 million hectares), along with 94% of their planned winter barley area (at 1.1 million hectares).

FranceAgriMer said that winter wheat sowings in France were up from 54% done a week ago to 71% complete as of Oct 28, and significantly more advanced than 57% a year ago. Winter barley has been sown on 87% of the intended area versus 77% last week and 76% in 2012. The corn harvest is only 35% complete versus 16% last week and 62% a year ago.

31/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with losses of around 7 to 10 cents on the day despite the USDA reporting 3 weeks worth of export sales totalling 4.74 MMT, far higher than the 2.5-3.0 MMT that the trade was expecting. Meal sales of only 805 TMT over the period were however a disappointment. These were actually lower than the total reported last week alone and fell short of the 1.0-1.5 MMT that the trade was hoping for. Not surprisingly China was the largest buyer of US beans taking 2,112,300 MT. Reports that Goldman Sachs were recommending the closing out of open long beans/short corn positions may also have caused some selling in beans. The $13 level seems to have been proving attractive as far as producers are concerned, certainly versus selling corn at around $4.30 - a ratio of 3:1 being historically high. Jan 14 meal posted it's lowest close since August and Jan 14 beans finished within fractions of a cent of doing the same. The USDA attache's office in Argentina estimated soybean production there in 2013/14 at 57.5 MMT, up 16.4% on a year previously and 4 MMT more than the USDA's September forecast. Argentine soybean exports were forecast to jump 58.5% to 13.0 MMT. Linn Group forecast the 2013 US soybean crop at 3.265 billion bushels, with yields at 43.1 bu/acre. In September the USDA said 3.149 billion bushels, and pegged yields at 41.2 bu/acre. Informa and FCStone are said to be due out with their estimates tomorrow. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.80 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.66 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $403.60, down $8.20; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.33, down 29 points.

Corn: The corn market closed a couple of cents easier, in what also looks like "buy the rumour, sell the fact" trade, similar to soybeans. The USDA said that America had sold 4.56 MMT of corn for 2013/14 in the past three weeks, well ahead of the 2.0-2.5 MMT that the trade was anticipating. In addition to that the USDA also reported the sale of 738 TMT of corn for 2014/15, along with an additional 123,040 MT sold to Japan and 174,000 MT sold to South Korea for 2013/14 delivery under the daily reporting system. Mexico (1,689,400 MT for 2013/14 and 734,400 MT for 2014/15) was the largest buyer in both crop years. Heavy sales to Asia earlier in the week seem to confirm that US corn is finally competitive with South American origin material (and also Black Sea origin corn and feed wheat), at least for delivery in the new year. MDA CropCast (who frequently issue low-ball estimates) raised their forecast for US corn production this year by 94 million bushels to 13.451 million. Linn Group estimated the US crop much higher at 14.33 billion bushels, with yields averaging 163.4 bu/acre. The USDA were at 13.843 billion and 155.3 bu/acre in September. Consider here that MDA CropCast's number is a record and represents a 31.6% increase on their estimate of 2012 production and the sheer size of this year's US crop comes into perspective. Russia's corn harvest is now 50.8% complete at 6.5 MMT. The USDA attache in Moscow raised his estimate for production there this year from 9.0 MMT to 9.7 MMT (the USDA themselves were at 9.0 MMT in September). The IGC increased their global corn production estimate for 2013/14 by 5 MMT to a record 948 MMT. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.28 1/4, down 2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.39 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was the only one of the three main agri-commodities that got export sales below expectations for the past three weeks - a total of 1.31 MMT versus trade forecasts of 1.5-2.0 MMT. Brazil (393,300 MT) was the biggest customer, although in the overall scheme of things that's only around 2.25 cargoes/week over the period. The IGC raised their world wheat production forecast in 2013/14 by 3 MMT to 696 MMT. The USDA's attache's office in Moscow cut it's forecast for the 2013/14 grain crop there from 90.0 MMT to 88.5 MMT, a 25% increase on last year. They reduced their wheat production forecast from 53.0 MMT to 51.5 MMT, although that's still a 36.6% rise on last season. They also trimmed their 2013/14 export forecasts, cutting grain shipments from 22.0 MMT to 20.0 MMT, of which wheat was reduced from 16.0 MMT to 15.0 MT and barley pared back from 3.0 MMT to 2.5 MMT. They said that Q1 2013/14 grain exports had totalled 9.0 MMT, including 7.46 MMT of wheat, 1.22 MMT of barley and 17 TMT of corn. The Russian Ministry said that the grain harvest there is 92.5% done at 90.8 MMT in bunker weight. Plantings for the 2014 harvest are stalled at 14 million hectares versus 15.5 million this time a year ago. SovEcon said that Oct 20 is the ideal last planting date. The Kazakh Ministry said that their 2013/14 grain crop will total 18.5-19.0 MMT in clean weight versus 12.8 MMT a year ago. They raised slightly their export hopes from 9.0-9.5 MMT to "up to 10 MMT" versus 7.1 MMT in 2012/13. There's talk of frost damage to winter wheat in Australia's eastern states. The Argentine Ministry have yet to issue a corrected version of their "erroneous" 8.8 MMT wheat estimate of a week ago. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.67 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.40 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.30 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.

You will note there the significant price difference between French corn and wheat - 24%, across the pond the premium that Chicago wheat currently commands over corn is in excess of 50%.

The USDA issued 3 weeks worth of export sales data today, to bring them back up to speed to where they should have been without the shut-down. The trade was expecting wheat sales of 1.5-2.0 MMT across the past 3 weeks, but instead only got sales of 1.31 MMT. Corn sales on the other hand beat expectations of 2.0-2.5 MMT coming in at 4.56 MMT for the 2013/14 marketing year.

Customs figures out of the leading French grain export hub of Roeun showed exports 36% down on last week at only 96.1 TMT, of which 86.4 TMT was soft wheat. If it hadn't have been for Algeria taking 75.5 TMT of the latter then it would have been a very lean week indeed.

Late in the day though, Brussels confirmed that they'd issued 561 TMT of soft wheat export licences this past week. That takes the marketing year to date total to 9.0 MMT versus 5.3 MMT this time a year ago.

The USDA's FAS Moscow office lowered their grain production estimate in the country from 90 MMT to 88.5 MMT in clean weight. Wheat output was cut from 53 MMT to 51.5 MMT, although still 36.6% higher than last year. Barley production was trimmed from 16 MMT to 15.2 MMT, whilst corn output was raised from 9 MMT to 9.7 MMT.

The Interfax News Agency said that winter wheat plantings in the Volgograd region were complete at 1.12 million hectares, around 19% lower than last year. Nationally the Ag Ministry say that winter grain plantings are done on 85.8% of the initial target, or 14 million hectares.

The Ukraine Ministry lowered their forecast for winter grains that will go unplanted this year from 1.1-1.2 million hectares to 0.4-0.5 million due to significant weather improvements in recent weeks.

The Kazakh grain harvest is 97% complete at 20.5 MMT in bunker weight, and should amount to around 18.5-19.0 MMT in clean weight versus 12.8 MMT a year ago, say the local Ag Ministry.

Defra said that the English wheat area fell 19% to just over 1.5 million hectares for the 2013 harvest, a 30 year low. The total barley area rose 33% to 828k ha, despite a 22% drop on the winter planted area, thanks to a 94% rise in the spring planted area, they said. The English oat area was up 50% to 138k ha, and the spring OSR area rose by more than 750%, they added.

The Turkish Stats Office said that grain production there was up by 12% to 37.5 MMT in 2013, including a 10% rise in wheat output to 22.1 MMT.

30/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 5-8 cents higher in a bit of follow-through momentum from yesterday. The trade is expecting the USDA to show no let up in demand for US soybeans when it releases 3 weeks worth of export sales tomorrow, market expectations are for bean sales of around 2.5-3.0 MMT, along with meal sales of maybe 1.0-1.5. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 US soybean crop at 3.215 billion bushels and estimated yields at 41.8 bu/acre, both unchanged from their previous estimates. In September the USDA said 3.149 billion bushels, and pegged yields at 41.2 bu/acre. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 global bean crop at 288.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. South Korea's Nofi bought 15 TMT of Indian soymeal at $575 C&;F for Jan/Feb shipment along with 10 TMT of Indian rapemeal at $272.95 C&F for Feb shipment as they seek to reduce costs by buying lower priced raw materials from one of the cheapest oilmeal sellers in the world. Ecuador bought 30 TMT of US meal for Jan shipment. Decent and needed rain is in the forecast for Argentina tomorrow. The GFS model has most of Brazil, apart from the already wet south, picking up better than average rains across the next two weeks. Argentina announced an additional 2 MMT of soybean export licenses. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.87 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.76 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $411.80, up $1.00; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.62, up 65 points.

Corn: The corn market continues to moved sideways, and generally trades within a narrow range. The trade is expecting corn export sales across the last three weeks to total around 2.0-2.5 MMT tomorrow. Rumour persists that China has been in for US corn as prices fell to more than 3-year lows. South Korea bought 368 TMT of US corn for Mar/Apr shipment at levels said to be around $245-246 C&F. South Korea's Nofi bought it's first US corn in 16 months yesterday, fostering ideas that prices have now fallen far enough to stimulate extra export interest. Taiwan's MIPA also bought 60 TMT of US corn in a tender for Jan/Feb shipment today. Additional supportive news came from US ethanol production rising 14,000 barrels/day from last week to to 911,000 barrels/day, the highest weekly total since June 2010. Nevertheless, the prospect of a large hike in US 2013 corn yields and production from the USDA next week hangs over the market. Many in the trade are now talking of yields in the 160-162 bu/acre region versus the 155.3 bu/acre that the USDA gave us in September. Lanworth aren't that optimistic, they estimated yields at 156.4 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 156.2 bu/acre. They have the US 2013 corn crop at 13.795 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 13.792 billion and 13.843 billion from the USDA in September. Ukraine's corn crop is 62% harvested at 17.89 MMT. Russia's is 49% cut at 6.3 MMT. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.30 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.41 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed around 4-6 cents easier across the three exchanges. Low corn prices are weighing on wheat. The wheat premium over corn in Chicago at around $2.50/bushel is the largest since mid-2010. India announced that it was to lower the minimum price it's prepared to accept for wheat from $300/tonne to $260/tonne, which is expected to trigger significant sales volumes from less discerning buyers. The USDA projects Indian exports of 5.5 MMT in the current marketing year, some think that this might rise closer to 7 MMT. The USDA attache in Russia lowered their production estimate by 1.5 MMT to 51.5 MMT (in clean weight) and cut exports by 1 MMT to 15 MMT. The Russian harvest is 96.8% done at 53.6 MMT in bunker weight. Last year's clean weight production was 37.7 MMT. Lanworth raised their forecast for Australian wheat production from 24.82 MMT to 25.29 MMT. They estimated the 2013/14 global wheat crop at 707.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. The Brazilian Trade Ministry raised the tax-free wheat import quota by 600,000 MT to 3.3 MMT, and extended the duty-free period until the end of November. That keeps the window of opportunity for US wheat open a little while longer yet, many don't expect it to shut at all during 2013/14. Trade ideas for tomorrow's 3 week's worth of export sales are around 1.5-2.0 MMT. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.75, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.47 3/4, down 4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.32, down 4 1/2 cents.

The market has an "in limbo" feel, waiting for more guidance from the USDA, although the November WASDE report is still more than a week away. At least we will get a little bit of help in the form of three week's worth of US export sales data tomorrow, which will bring them back into line with normal release dates.

One item of significant news value today was the announcement that the Indian government had agreed to reduce the minimum amount it would accept in wheat tenders from and unrealistic USD300/tonne FOB, to a much more achievable USD260/tonne. The old USD300/tonne floor price has been in place for more than a year. The new minimum should open the door to a much greater potential market. One analyst forecast that India's wheat exports could rise to a record 7 MMT in 2013/14 on the back of the decision.

In other news, Ukraine's winter grains plantings now stand at 7.515 million hectares, or 92% of the originally targeted area. Winter wheat has been sown on 6.168 million hectares, and winter barley on a further 1.1 million ha.

The Ukraine 2013 grain harvest is now 88% complete at 51.246 MMT, with the ongoing corn harvest 62% complete at 17.891 MMT. That leaves them on target to achieve a record crop of 28-29 MMT of the latter this year.

Russia has now planted winter grains on 14 million hectares, 85.2% of the original aim, but far better than the Ag Minister feared was likely (13 million ha) early in October. Rusagrotrans said that plantings could end up at 14.5 million, or even 15 million ha if the weather remains favourable, even though the optimum planting deadline has now passed.
Plantings last year were 15.6 million ha, they add.

The Russian grain harvest is winding slowly down at 90.5 MMT off 92.1% of the planned area. Yields are averaging 2.23 MT/ha this year versus 1.88 MT/ha in 2012. Corn harvesting is almost halfway done at 49%, producing a crop of 6.3 MMT to date.

Russia exported only 1.627 MMT of grains during the Oct 1-22 period, including 1.227 MMT of wheat. Jul 1-Oct 22 grain exports now stand at 10.522 MMT, "only" a 7.8% increase on last year. That's not a huge amount all things considered.

Domestic Russian milling wheat prices are rising, with an unusually large percentage of this year's crop consigned to the feed bin. FOB prices ex deep water berths on the Black Sea are around USD280/tonne for 11.5% milling wheat.

Customs data shows that Spain imported 11% less wheat in August than the same month in 2012, along with 20% less corn after this year proved to be a bumper year for Spanish crop production.

Lanworth Inc raised their forecast for Australian wheat production this year from 24.82 MMT to 25.29 MMT, up 14.5% on last year, due to above average soil moisture levels in WA, VIC and SA.

Brazil has said it will extend it's duty free period on wheat imports from outside the Mercosur trade block to the end of November, and increase the quota for the same by 600 TMT to 3.3 MMT.

30/10/13 -- Breaking news from Dow Jones suggests that the Indian government have agreed to lower the bar on the minimum price they will accept for wheat in international tenders from $300/tonne to $260/tonne.

The move should be sufficient to generate some good sales amongst less fussy buyers. Singapore-based trading company Agrocorp International told Bloomberg that India's wheat exports could jump 32% to a record 7 MMT in the 12 months starting April 1 if the proposal was approved.

Bangladesh yesterday re-issued what now looks like a well-timed tender for 50 TMT of wheat.

29/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans managed to stage a mini "Turnaround Tuesday" but fell well short of recovering all of Monday's losses. The strong demand scenario that was largely ignored yesterday underpinned the market today. Whilst the USDA is expected to raise US soybean production in next week's WASDE report, the trade is thinking that with export commitments already at 74% of the USDA's target for the season then they could also increase their foreign sales estimate too. In addition, with meal demand also very strong, there's the possibility of an increased domestic crush to further utilise some of this extra soybean production. The US harvest will likely be disrupted by widespread showers that are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, dry weather returns Friday and into early next week though. Heavy rain is in the forecast for much of Argentina Thursday/Friday. The eastern half of the country and northern areas are set to receive above average rainfall across the next 15 days. The GFS model has much of Brazil also picking up better than average rains across the next 15 days, although other models are drier. Abiove estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian soybean crop at 86.0 MMT versus the USDA estimate of 88.0 MMT, although still a record output. Dr Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian bean crop at 88.0 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate. He said that 40-45% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted. He estimated the Argentine crop at 55.0 MMT, also unchanged from previous estimate and put plantings so far at 3-4%. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.79, up 7 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.70 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $410.80, down $3.90; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.97, up 61 points.

Corn: The corn market stabilised a little from yesterday's more than 3-year lows, but still only managed to close with token gains. News that South Korea's Nofi had bought 140 TMT of US corn for March shipment, said to be the first such purchase of US origin corn by them in 16 months, added a bit of support. The trade is braced for the USDA to potentially raise US 2013 corn yields quite sharply from their last estimate issued in September in next week's WASDE report. What they will do re production is another matter. There was plenty of talk last month of a lower harvested area than the numbers that they were using. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013 corn imports at 5.0 MMT versus the USDA's forecast for 2013/14 imports of 7.0 MMT. They said that China's imports of US corn this month are likely to be 100,000 MT, rising to 800,000 MT in November. Dr Cordonnier forecast the Brazilian corn crop at 70.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. In Argentina he has the corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from previously, and said that 28-30% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted. He estimated 2013 US corn yields at 156.0 bu/acre, up 2 bu/acre versus his previous estimate and pegged 2013 production at 13.67 billion bushels. The USDA were 155.3 bu/acre and 13.843 billion bushels in September. Dr Cordonnier obviously sees harvested acres lower than the USDA did in September. Is the stage set therefore for a bullish USDA surprise on corn next week? Yields will surely be raised, but could they actually lower production, or at least not raise it by much, by virtue of a reduced harvest area? Their capacity to spring a surprise knows no bounds after all. With the market having been starved of information for an extra month this time too, next week's report has the potential to double the magnitude of the surprise element. And don't forget that funds are sitting on a near record short position in corn. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.32, up 1 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.44 1/4, up 1 cent.

Wheat: Wheat managed to close with minor gains, having traded both sides. It's large premium to corn remains a bearish factor. So too does European wheat plantings well advanced and crop conditions looking good heading into winter. Plantings in the Black Sea have also caught up to much better levels than were expected a couple of weeks ago, even if they do still lag year ago levels. The pace of US wheat sales is however ahead of normal levels, thanks to Brazil and China. The market will be highly sensitive to signs that this demand is dropping off, which is why yesterday's export inspections of only 16.3 million bushels were so disappointing. The USDA will release three week's worth of export sales data on Thursday, to bring us back into line following the partial government closures earlier this month. The market will be looking to see how well, or otherwise, wheat sales have held up during this period, and who's been buying. South Korea's Nofi bought 65 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Feb shipment in a tender. Bangladesh re-issued a tender for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment. It will be interesting to see if any Indian wheat is offered there, and at what price. Ukraine said that they expect to ship 3 MMT of grains this month, around the maximum possible given logistical and infrastructure constraints. APK Inform said recently that although they have an exportable surplus of 30 MMT this season, grain exports are likely to be limited to around 23.5 MMT by these problems. The Russian wheat harvest is 95.7% done at 53.5 MMT in bunker weight, suggesting that the USDA's clean weight estimate of 54 MMT is a little too high. With the barley crop 91.5% harvested at 15.8 MMT, they may be a bit high on that too. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.81 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.51 3/4, up 1 cent; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.36 3/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat continues to attempt to punch above it's weight, but it is getting increasingly difficult with corn offered at such substantial discounts on both sides of the pond.
French wheat is currently priced around 17% above that of corn, and in the case of Chicago wheat the premium is almost 59%!

Russian and Ukraine winter wheat plantings are much better than was expected a few weeks ago. Meanwhile much warmer than normal and drier weather conditions in the Black Sea mean that corn harvesting has picked up considerably and that production in both Russia and Ukraine looks like being at record levels this year.

The EU Commission forecast soft wheat production here at 133.5 MMT, up 2 MMT on their previous estimate and 6.4% more than last year. They have EU-28 corn output at 65.9 MMT, up 12.6% on 2012 and the EU-28 barley crop at 59.2 MMT, a rise of 8% versus 2012.

The market has turned bearish again, with the January MATIF contract edging down to EUR200/tonne with some traders suggesting a move to EUR195-197/tonne is attainable. That could drag London wheat back to test the GBP160/tonne support level.

As of October 29, Ukraine has now planted winter grains throughout an area of 7.515 million ha, or 92% of the original plan, say the local Ministry. That's much more than was expected a couple of weeks ago.

The Ukraine 2013 grain harvest now stands at 51.246 MMT, off 88% of the planned area. Corn accounts for 17.89 MMT of that off 62% of the combinable crop area, they added.

The Russian grain harvest meanwhile is 92% complete, producing a crop of 90.3 MMT to date. Wheat accounts for 53.5 MMT of the harvest total off 95.7% of the planned area (versus 39.6 MMT a year ago at this time), yields are up almost 26% at 2.33 MT/ha.

Russian winter grain plantings are almost 85% done at 13.9 million hectares.

Bangladesh have reissued a tender to buy 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment.

29/10/13 -- Latest figures from the Russian Ministry show that the 2013 grain harvest is now 92% complete at 90.3 MMT. A year ago at this time it stood at 72.2 MMT. Average yields are 2.23 MT/ha, up 18.6% versus 1.88 MT/ha a year ago.

Wheat accounts for 53.5 MMT of the harvest total off 95.7% of the planned area (versus 39.6 MMT a year ago at this time), yields are up almost 26% at 2.33 MT/ha.

The USDA's September WASDE report suggested a clean weight 2013 Russian wheat harvest of 54 MMT, along with 17 MMT of barley, 9 MMT of corn and 8.9 MMT of sunseed. Based on these Ministry numbers the USDA are probably too high on wheat and barley and too low on corn and sunseed.

Winter plantings for the 2014 harvest have now been completed on 13.9 million hectares, 85% of the originally targeted area of 16.4 million. This time a year ago they'd planted 15.5 million hectares, and in 2011 it was 14.9 million.

28/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans slumped back below $13/bu on active producer selling at the level and harvest pressure. The decline came even though the USDA announced the sale of 115 TMT of US beans to China for 2013/14 delivery, along with 115 TMT sold to unknown, also for 2013/14 delivery. What also should have been supportive was weekly export inspections of 83.6 million bushels, far above the 46-53 million anticipated and said to be the second largest weekly total on record. Corn falling to a more than 3-year low didn't help beans though. Safras e Mercado said Brazilian soybean planting is 26% complete versus 18% a week ago, 28% a year ago and 24% for the 5-year average. Ag Rural said Brazilian bean planting is 34% complete. Somar reported that after a dry September, parts of top producing state of Mato Grosso have received up to 6.1 inches of rain in October. There's some talk of reduced Chinese soybean imports going forward, the USDA have already set the bar extremely high at 69 MMT for 2013/14. The Chinese government have temporarily suspended their weekly soybean auctions whilst the buy the domestic crop to rebuild stocks. There's talk that when auctions resume the new offered prices will be lower. After the close the USDA pegged the 2013 US soybean harvest at 77% complete, slightly lower than the 78% average trade guess in a Reuters survey, but now bang in line with the 5-year average. Solid demand underpins the soybean and meal markets, and the anticipated record large South American crop is still quite a long way off - and it isn't made yet. That should support the nears at least across the next few months. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.71 1/4, down 28 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.68, down 25 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $414.70, down $8.80; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.36, down 37 points.

Corn: Nearby Dec 13 corn fell to fresh contract lows and the lowest levels for a front month since August 2010 on talk getting louder of much better than expected yields in the US. The USDA announcement of the sale of 103,600 MT of corn to unknown for 2013/14 delivery caused barely a ripple as funds were given credit for extending their corn short to the tune of around 12,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections of 26.5 million bushels fell below trade estimates of 29-34 million. South Korea's Nofi tendered for 70 TMT of optional origin corn for March shipment. Argentina’s Ag Ministry said on Friday that 25% of the corn crop has been planted versus 19% a week ago and 39% a year ago. Very good and needed rains are in the forecast for Argentina Friday/Saturday. Russia's corn harvest is 45.3% done at 5.8 MMT. Ukraine's corn harvest is 58% complete at 16.8 MMT, leaving them on track for their much-anticipated record crop somewhere in the region of 28-29 MMT this year. Much warmer than normal weather conditions, and an extension of the current dry spell through to the end of the month should enable further good progress with corn harvesting to be made in the Black Sea region this week. The market was widely varied on where the US corn harvest would be in tonight's USDA report. A Reuters survey came out with an average guess of 52%. In fact the USDA said that the 2013 US corn harvest was 59% done, up sharply from 39% complete a week ago, and now almost in line with the 5-year average of 62%. Good/excellent crop conditions were also increased from 60% a week ago to 62%, supporting the trade notion that final average yields could be around the 160 bu/acre mark versus the 155.3 bu/acre that the USDA last gave us in September. Corn possibly carries the highest risk of a bearish production/yield estimate from the USDA in next week's WASDE report, so there could be more downside to come for it yet. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.30 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.43 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed lower across the board on all three exchanges, pressured by corn hitting multi-year lows. Even so, based on tonight's close Dec 13 wheat is still a more than $2.50/bu premium to corn in Chicago, which will surely cap demand from the feed sector for wheat. South Korea's Nofi are tendering for 60 TMT of optional origin wheat for Feb shipment. Black Sea wheat could be the favourite there. Russia's wheat harvest is now 95.5% done at 53.4 MMT in bunker weight versus a final clean weight production of only 37.7 MMT in 2012. Ukraine's wheat harvest is over. Kazakhstan's is entering the final stages and should be completed by the end of the week. There's talk of Egypt being back in the wheat import market within 2-4 weeks, although it won't be US wheat that they will be buying when they do next tender. Egypt’s supply minister said that the country has enough wheat to last them through to Feb 18th. Weekly US export inspections for wheat came in at only 16.3 million bushels versus the 24-28 million that the trade was expecting/hoping for, and appear to be slowing down seasonally. The USDA said that the US winter wheat crop was 86% planted, just above the five year average of 85%. They said that 65% of the crop is emerged, slightly higher than 64% normally. Good/excellent crop conditions were pegged at 61% versus only 40% a year ago. The European Commission estimated the EU-28 2013 soft wheat crop at 133.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 131.5 MMT. They pegged the EU-28 barley crop at 59.2 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate. For soft wheat that would represent an increase of 6.4% on 2012 and for barley it would be an 8% rise. Fund selling in Chicago wheat was estimated at around 2-3,000 lots on the day. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.81, down 9 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.50 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.36 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents.

28/10/13 -- EU grains closed mostly lower, with a continuation of beneficial weather in the Black Sea region seen helping growers there finish up the last of the 2013 harvest, and press on with better than feared winter plantings for 2014.

The session ended with Nov 13 London wheat down GBP0.75/tonne to GBP165.00/tonne, Nov 13 Paris wheat EUR2.50/tonne lower at EUR202.50/tonne and Nov 13 Paris rapeseed EUR4.75/tonne lower at EUR365.25/tonne - the latter has now fallen EUR15/tonne in the last three sessions.

The Russian grain harvest now stands at 91.6% complete, producing a bunker weight crop of 89.7 MMT, as of Friday Oct 25. Wheat accounts for 53.4 MMT of that total off 95.5% of plan, along with 15.8 MMT of barley off 91.4% of plan and a further 5.8 MMT of corn off 45.3% of the anticipated area.

Ukraine has now harvested 87% of it's planted area, producing a grain crop of 50.1 MMT to date. The main grain being harvested at the moment is corn of course, which at 58% done has produced a crop of 16.8 MMT so far, leaving it on target to achieve record production this year.

The weather is expected to continue much warmer than normal for the time of year through until at least the end of the month (Ukraine basked in temperatures of 20C at the weekend). The current dry period is also seen lasting until Friday.

This benign weather also means that winter grain plantings in Russia and Ukraine have progressed very well in recent weeks. Russia's winter grain crop has now been planted on 13.7 million hectares, or 83.6% of the originally planned 16.4 million ha. A couple of weeks ago the Ministry were suggesting that the final planted area may fall to around 13.0 million hectares.

In Ukraine, winter grains have now been planted on 7.3 million hectares (up 500,000 ha in a week) of the original Ministry target of 8.0 million. That includes 6.0 million ha of winter wheat (90% of the original forecast) and 1.0 million ha of winter barley (86% of initial ideas).

Ukraine's Jul 1 - Oct 25 grain exports now stand at 8.57 MMT, up 9.3% versus the same period in 2012. Of that total 4.1 MMT is wheat, 1.8 MMT barley and 1.6 MMT corn. They've also exported 1.7 MMT of oilseeds, mostly OSR (1.6 MMT) in that period.

Most Europe is seen continuing warmer to much warmer than normal through to mid-November. The forecast is wetter than normal in the west/north and drier in the south/east. Winter plantings in the UK, France and Germany are well advanced and crop emergence is very good.

Egypt has finalised an aid deal with UAE worth USD4.9 billion over the weekend, which includes a USD1 billion grant already issued in July, according to various news agencies. Part of the package will be used to build grain silos. Depending on which story you read this could be as few as 15x15 TMT silos, or as many as 25x60 TMT silos. It is being mooted that some of the extra cash will be used to fund further wheat purchases on the international market, with talk of a tender being issued sometime in the next 2-4 weeks.

The Egyptian Supplies Minister says that they have enough wheat to last them until February, just before they begin one the earliest harvests in the northern hemisphere, and that the government will import 5.0-5.5 MMT of wheat in the marketing year that ends in June next year. They are said to be looking at opening the door to Bulgarian wheat.

Despite their respective harvests being underway, uncertainty still surrounds the likely size of the wheat crops in Australia and Argentina. The former is forecast in the region of 23.5-26.5 MMT and the latter around 9.0-11.0 MMT. There's talk of possible frost damage to wheat and barley in Australia.

There's lots of talk of India "sharpening the pencil" as far as their aspirations on wheat export prices are concerned, but nothing concrete yet.

Tonight will bring the USDA's latest crop progress report, with the 2013 US corn harvest expected to be halfway, of slightly better. The soybean harvest is thought likely to be 80-85% complete. Talk of large, or even huge, corn yields are rife. In afternoon trade Dec 13 Chicago corn slumped to a new lifetime contract low, and the lowest level for a front month since August 2010. Next week's USDA WASDE report is shaping up to be a very important event, with the market having been largely starved of much of its regular data for the past month.

About Me

Worked in agriculture for over 30 years as a shipper, merchant, trader & broker, but still hasn't got the faintest idea what he's talking about.
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Disclaimer

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The guy is clearly deranged and you should almost certainly ignore everything that he says.