National Post editorial board: Rogue nations on the ropes

North Korea and Syria are rogue nations on the ropes

North Korea called the rocket their Kwangmyongsong — a “Bright Shining Star” that would carry a weather satellite into space on the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founding dictator, Kim Il-sung. Instead, the event turned into a $450-million fireworks show, as the rocket exploded less than two minutes after launch. Historically, propaganda-obsessed communist regimes blame such disasters on “saboteurs” or ignore them completely. But in this case, Pyongyang had invited international journalists to witness the glorious event. And so North Korean television announcers were forced to tell the truth — that Kwangmyongsong had broken into bits and fallen into the Yellow Sea. (To add insult to injury, the rocket shards were scooped up out of the water by South Korean ships.)

The destruction of the Kwangmyongsong would be embarrassing under any circumstances. But in this case, the damage to North Korea was multiplied by the circumstances of the missile launch, which was in defiance of UN sanctions, as well as a recent aid deal struck with the United States. Barack Obama now has cancelled 240,000 tons of food aid, worth an estimated $200-million.

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Despite presiding over an economy that perpetually sits on the brink of mass starvation, Kim Jong-un gambled it all in a desperate one-off play for the world’s attention. Now the new North Korean leader looks like a fool. And his probable response, which will be to up the ante by staging a nuclear test, or a reckless attack on South Korea, may rupture already-testy relations with his only remaining major-power protector, China.

For years, North Korea has been pursuing nuclear weapons, and the missiles to deliver them, as a means to shore up domestic legitimacy and intimidate other powers. The approach has succeeded to the extent it has helped North Korea extort Western food aid, thereby preventing total regime collapse. In the fullness of time, this week’s events may be remembered as the beginning of the end of this extortionate strategy.

The Korean peninsula is not the only place where rogue power has suffered a setback. In Syria, the government of Bashar Assad has cleared away the most threatening pockets of rebel fighters. But in the process, he has turned himself into a regional pariah: In recent days, Syria has fired ordnance across both the Lebanese and Turkish borders, further alienating formerly sympathetic (or at least neutral) elements in both nations. Hamas, which once was headquartered in Damascus, has effectively taken sides with Syria’s rebels. Even Hezbollah, a Shiite group that has worked closely with Syrian interests for many years, is under pressure to distance itself from Mr. Assad.

The Assad dynasty may totter on for months or even years. But it will survive in a climate of disgrace and bloodshed, having butchered thousands of Syrian citizens. All of the slogans emitted by Syria about the allegedly murderous perfidy of the hated Zionists now have redounded back against Mr. Assad’s own government. As a regional actor, he is paralyzed — and has dragged Hezbollah down with him. For the first time in historical memory, the attention of international human-rights groups in the Levant does not primarily involve Jews or Israelis in any way.

Iran’s continuing effort to prop up Mr. Assad has guaranteed that Tehran, too, will be smeared with Syrian blood. Even before the Syrian uprising began last year, many Arabs feared Iranian hegemony. Now, that fear has turned into loathing. A few years ago, it was easy to predict that the “Arab street” would rise up in frenzied protest if the United States bombed Iran’s nukes. These days, we suspect, a good many Arabs would openly welcome such an attack.

Just a few years ago, none of this was foreseeable. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq had weakened the United States and its allies, making them seem vulnerable to new rogue threats. Iran, in particular, was riding a crest of high oil prices and building regional alliances. The surprisingly effective sanctions campaign, and the Syrian uprising, has destroyed all that; just as the combination of an untested new leader and a disastrous missile launch have hurt North Korea.

These events suggest that time is not on the side of rogue dictators. In another age, Syria could hide its bloody internal campaign (as Hafez Assad did in 1982, when he massacred the Islamists of Hama). And when North Korea’s two previous missile launches exploded prematurely, Pyongyang simply lied to its own citizens, telling them that the satellites were in orbit, broadcasting odes to North Korean greatness. In the modern media age, such subterfuge has become more difficult, and rogue dictators are having a harder time maintaining the glorious propaganda facades on which their legitimacy depends.

Their travails signal the eventual possibility of a world without rogue power. They even allow us to dream that such a world may come about without foreign intervention or a major war. A dictator’s disgrace is a democrat’s best friend.