Hussein`s Terrorism Could Cripple U.s.

September 13, 1990|The Washington Post

JERUSALEM -- As the antagonists of the Middle East crisis look for alternatives to an all-out military conflict, the eruption of a covert war of spies, provocateurs, terrorists and assassins is an increasingly likely prospect, experts and intelligence sources say.

With the exception of propaganda operations, such a war has yet to begin.

While Wednesday`s call by Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a ``holy war`` against ``American aggression`` may have been just such propaganda, it brought a chilling reminder of American vulernability in the Middle East standoff.

Khamenei did not openly urge terrorist actions, but his vehement attack made reference to the suicide truck bomb in 1983 against U.S. Marines in Lebanon. ``It`s surprising how the Americans don`t take lessons. They saw how vulnerable their presence can be. Have they forgotton how a bunch of pious Moslem youths ... swept them away and evicted them from Lebanon?`` he said.

For now, specialists here say Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is seeking to avoid potentially provocative covert action, and the United States and its allies are ill-prepared for it. Still, informed sources say that both sides are making preparations and appear more likely to act as the military and diplomatic fronts of the crisis approach a stalemate.

If it begins, the covert war will be fought on strikingly different terms than the outward conflict the world has watched during the past six weeks, specialists here say. Its setting is more likely to be the streets of Europe or the palaces of rival Arab rulers than the hot sands of Saudi Arabia; its foot soldiers are as likely to be Palestinians and Israelis as Iraqis and Americans.

Perhaps most significantly, specialists here think that, in contrast to the military and diplomatic arenas, the clear advantage in covert conflict may lie with Hussein. ``He is holding some strong cards that he can play if he wants,`` an Israeli intelligence source said. ``From our side, on the other hand, the prospects are much less clear.``

U.S. and Israeli intelligence has reported signs of surveillance and other preparations by Iraq and allied terrorist groups for attacks on U.S. targets in Europe as well as in Saudi Arabia. But some Israeli specialists think Hussein`s first covert thrust might be directed against another target: the regimes of the moderate Arab states now supporting Washington, above all Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

``Right now Saddam wants to avoid any action that could provoke the United States, because the last thing he wants is a war with the West,`` said a senior Israeli government specialist. ``But he can target the regimes of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, because by destabilizing them, he can undermine the whole Western alliance against him.``

The Israeli said that Hussein already has called publicly for the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy under King Fahd as well as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.