As Buhari faces the Atiku-Obi challenge

Last week’s election of former vice president Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party has been generating excitement in Nigeria. This is because, among the 12 people who vied for the position, Atiku was seen as the person with the best chance of defeating the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari. His status as a former vice president — with friends and associates across the nation — was a huge advantage. Given allegations of cronyism and divisiveness that have trailed the Presidency of Buhari, the choice of Atiku was seen as a counter to Buhari.

Furthermore, there is the critical issue of restructuring Nigeria. Of all the presidential aspirants, Atiku has been the one with the strongest commitment to the call for the restructuring and devolution of more powers to the federating units, thereby making the federating units more competitive and productive. It has been argued for many years now that fiscal federalism would lift Nigeria from its dependence on oil and bring out its creative abilities. It was one key issue the All Progressives Congress promised during the campaign for the 2015 Presidency, but upon coming into office, President Buhari and the APC distanced themselves from it.

In addition, there is the factor of Atiku’s origin from Adamawa State in the North-East. It is believed that the emergence of Atiku would help to secure more votes from the region. If Atiku becomes the President in 2019, the North-East would have produced its first president since 1999. In fact, since the exit of Sir Tafawa Balewa (from Bauchi State) as prime minister in 1966, the North-East has never produced the leader of Nigeria (whether as a civilian leader or a military leader). The choice of Atiku was also seen as a matter of fairness — to let the North-East have a feel of the Presidency like other parts of Nigeria.

But most importantly, in recent time, Atiku has shown that he is the most prepared for the office of the President, given his speeches, interviews and reactions to national issues. He has continuously shared his thoughts and vision of how various national issues can be tackled and solved. In addition, with the poor way the Nigerian economy has been handled by the incumbent, Atiku is seen as the person capable of revamping the economy, creating jobs and reducing poverty, given that he has operated private business ventures that have succeeded, unlike the incumbent who has not been known to have run any successful private enterprise.

It was, therefore, not surprising that Atiku polled 1,532 votes, while the other 11 contestants polled a total of 1,621 votes. It showed that in spite of all the permutations about how the key stakeholders in the PDP would sway the delegates to elect their preferred candidate, the delegates overwhelmingly elected Atiku. That was a testimony that they were in tune with the mood of the public, and were more concerned about electing a candidate with the capacity to win next year’s election, rather than one who would suit some powerbrokers in the party.

Similarly, the appointment of former Anambra State Governor, Mr Peter Obi, as Atiku’s running mate, further enlivened the polity because of Obi’s pedigree as a wealthy man who brought frugality, transparency, and pragmatism into governance, things that are not usually associated with Nigerian politicians. At a time other governors were using private jets or charter flights, Obi was taking commercial flights and using the economy class. He cut down on the number of vehicles for the office of the governor and channelled the money into infrastructure. He embarked on investment for the state, making the state liquid at a time most states were owing salaries and getting deeper into debt.

Likewise, if Obi becomes the vice president, he will be the first from the South-East since 1999. If the scope is expanded beyond 1999 to include civilian and military regimes, he will be the first since 1986 when Commodore Ebitu Ukiwe (retd.) as the Chief of General Staff to the General Ibrahim Babangida. So, beside the financial discipline, wealth creation and lack of flamboyance that Obi will bring to the table, his choice as running mate is also a matter of fairness.

However, if Buhari had lived up to expectation, the 2019 election would have been like a foregone conclusion. Neither Atiku nor Obi would have been able to make most Nigerians not vote for him. Buhari became the President in 2015 on a high note. He was seen as a man who abhorred corruption and all forms of ostentation. He became the military head of state when he was 41 years old, yet was not known to have been fabulously rich. Before then, he had held the positions of military Governor of the Northeastern State and Minister of Petroleum. After Buhari’s short stint as head of state, Gen Sani Abacha appointed him the Chairman of the Petroleum (Special) Trust Fund. Because of all this, Buhari was seen as a man who would not tolerate any form of corruption or wastefulness if made the President.

In addition, Buhari was seen as a man who was so detribalised that he would treat even his son the same way he would treat a boy or girl from the other end of the nation in the Cross River State or Ondo State. He was seen as a patriot who would put the nation first before himself, his ethnicity or religion. Furthermore, his military background was a plus that made people believe that he would find an answer to the menace of Boko Haram. He was also seen as a man who was genuinely concerned about the sad condition of the country and had been passionately striving to become the president and change the fortune of Nigeria through honest and visionary leadership. Many widows, students, and other low-income earners donated money to support his candidacy. The hope of a transformed Nigeria filled many people with optimism that many were trekking from one state to the other to register their solidarity the moment Buahri was declared the winner of the election.

However, less than six months in office, Buhari began to show that he was not competent and suited for the office of the President of a diverse and developing country like Nigeria. He was too slow in taking decisions — taking six months to appoint his ministers and leaving memos unattended to many months after they were sent; he put his ethnic interests above national interest, dividing his compatriots into “his people” and “others”, which created dissatisfaction and encouraged the killings by herdsmen to exacerbate; he did not have a grasp of how to manage the economy and how to give experts the necessary free hand to run the economy, leading to the quick rise in the exchange rate of the naira and loss of millions of jobs; and he frequently did the opposite of the things he promised.

Surprisingly, the more Nigerians complained about his cronyism and poor handling of the economy, the more he carried on as if nothing was said. Those who complained were quickly branded “wailing wailers” and “corrupt people.” As companies closed down and moved out of Nigeria, Buhari and his aides pointed the finger at the previous administration. The more people complained that he was making his appointments and projects too parochial in outlook, the more he carried on unperturbed.

It was not surprising that many of those who campaigned fervently for Buhari felt disappointed at how he persistently embarked upon self-demystification in the three and half years of his tenure by doing things that ran contrary to the persona he created when he was seeking to be president. So, Buhari has been his greatest opponent.

The hope in Buhari has dimmed. The hope has shifted from the possibility of Buhari transforming Nigeria to the need to look for another person that can set the ball rolling for Nigeria’s renaissance. That is why the Abubakar-Obi candidature has drawn a lot of excitement. It is all about lost hope and the rekindling of hope, for hope is the only thing sustaining Nigeria since independence.

—Twitter @BrandAzuka

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