gatorcane wrote:It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.

If this would be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean,it would have over 50 pages by now. If anyone is a Tropical Weather fan, you would follow this open sea system all the way like right now with Nadine.

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gatorcane wrote:It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.

If this would be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean,it would have over 50 pages by now. If anyone is a Tropical Weather fan, you would follow this open sea system all the way.

Man no one follows EPac as well. Maybe if people took fish storms seriously our knowledge about hurricanes would increase more, no?

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDEISLANDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICALDEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHCHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDEISLANDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICALDEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHCHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

gatorcane wrote:It's got that tumblweed look to it and well on its way to developing, however, looks like this one has already started its recurvature into the Atlantic graveyard and will be of no threat to the Caribbean islands or the United States. Consequently we see just about no interest on this board for this system.

If this would be in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean,it would have over 50 pages by now. If anyone is a Tropical Weather fan, you would follow this open sea system all the way like right now with Nadine.

This one, btw, reminds me of a lot of some westPac Tcs in that there is a large arc of strong shear ahead of it but that shear zone is moving northwestward along with it so that instead of being a problem it's actually causing really good outflow around the western and northern sides. It is also a very large system like many westPac storms. Let's see if this has an easier time developing since it has better symmetry than a lot of the other early-stage TCs we saw out there this season.

This is a tough one. I think they'll wait until late tonight / tomorrow morning since it still looks a little ragged and it's not near any land. But it could go either way. For sure by tomorrow morning.

brunota2003 wrote:There just isn't much there on that windsat pass, is there? Granted, 25% of the barbs are coded as possibly rain contaminated.

Yeah. It is most important that the southwest side is not closed, although that was from 4:30 this afternoon. As hard as it is to tell, it looks like it may have closed off now, or will overnight, and certainly convection has been persistent enough that I still think they'll call it tomorrow morning. Doesn't have any negatives - even the shear zone, as I noted before, seems to be moving ahead of it at the same speed that it is moving. It has really nice symmetry and outflow, especially considering how large the circulation is.

It doesn't look like anything on the WINDSAT. Pretty looking cloud structure though. It might be too large to hold together. Everything else has been pretty hostile in the deep tropics this year.... does anyone think it'll survive up beyond 20N-25N?

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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDEISLANDS CONTINUES SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANDTHIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO15 MPH.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OFTHE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIESWILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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