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Trading Week 04/11/13

S&P500 weekly: this is a rather interesting chart. The current weekly S&P500 candle is printing a bearish reversal ‘shooting star’ pattern. Note also the ‘counter intuitive’ divergence patterns. Throughout this year, divergence has been seeing no pull back but no divergence, like we have now, has been seeing pull backs! This would support the current bearish weekly candle print:

I still think a pull back to test the 1,685 area would be healthy even if bullish momentum is to continue. This would tie in nicely with a 61.8% fib pull back which is not unheard of after a momentum move. Any such pull back would probably not even have to break the daily support trend line!:

Friday 8th Nov (5.30 pm)NFP: due out later tonight.Chinese data: there is a lot of Chinese data due out on Saturday and there are two bits of red flag data. This could impact ‘risk appetite’ going into next week.

The Chinese Trade Balance data came in much better than expected. So much so that I suspect there will be talk about whether it can be believed! A/U little moved for now though! NFP is probably more of a concern here for now.

Friday 8th Nov (1.30 pm)

Chinese Trade Balance data might be able to help ‘risk appetite. Still waiting for it to be released.

Friday 8th Nov (12.45 pm)

USDX: Another bullish Cup’n’Handle pattern here on the 4hr chart?

Friday 8th Nov (11.45 am)

Ichimoku Indices: The USDX has given a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross although this signal is deemed weak as it came through whilst below the Cloud:

EURX: no cross yet but the lines are fused:

Friday 8th Nov (10 am)

Pollyanna: In true Pollyanna fashion I’m trying to see some positives out of this latest FX situation and, thus, I’m playing the ‘glad game’. So, I’m glad that all of this choppiness has the ADX trading near/below 20 on most of the 4hr FX charts. This will make it easier to see the start of any new trends if/when they return.

Friday 8th Nov (9.40 am)

S&P500: My TS system gave a buy signal on the S&P500 back on Oct 21st. This signals has now closed off and thus I would close any open long trade on the S&P500:

I do not have a sell signal on the S&P500 at all just yet though.

There was another great 30 min SPY trade opportunity overnight:

My daily chart index candles do not close off until 11 am.

Friday 8th Nov (5.20 am)

Indices: The USDX has gained and the EURX has fallen due to the double blow of ECB interest rate cut and strong US GDP. This stronger than expected US data will renew thoughts of early tapering of USD QE. This news has sent the USDX above its bear trend line and has caused the EURX to respect its broken trend line:

USDX:

EURX:

Note how the previous S/R level of 108.50 helped to stem the flow on the EURX. This S/R level may be more obvious from the weekly chart below:

Ichimoku Charts: the daily candles have yet to close here but there seems an obvious sentiment shift. The USDX is currently pushing up through its Cloud and the EURX has fallen through its Cloud. Both charts also show fused Tenkan/Kijun lines. I’ll be wayching for any new crosses here.

There has been no sustained trend on the 4hr time frame and, hence, there are no TS signals. There is still A Draghi speech to come and, also, NFP and this latter news may be needed to confirm the next new momentum shift for FX. A strong NFP result could lead to a further rally with the USD.

Thurs 7th Nov (6.50 pm)

Indices: ho hum. The USDX trading below the daily chart bear trend line but looking a bit ‘bull flag’ like on the 4hr charts:

EURX: trying to decide whether to respect or reject the support trend line:

Thurs 7th Nov (5 pm)

Indices: Both of these are still hanging near the safety of their respective trend lines:

USDX:

EURX:

I am waiting until after the ECB press release before further trading. There aren’t any 4 hr trend signals in just yet anyway. Any ECB hint of more easing or concern and then any positive NFP result might boost the USD and cause the E/U to struggle.

I have closed out a few option trades…some profitable naked Puts. I’ve left my long Calls and stocks for now but will monitor these closely.

BoE and ECB: another interesting video from Dean Malone discussing the E/U and Cable given the looming interest rate news.

Thurs 7th Nov (10.20 am)

BoE and ECB: another interesting video from Dean Malone discussing the E/U and Cable given the looming interest rate news.

Thurs 7th Nov (8 am)

S&P500: note how the bullish Tenkan/Kijun crosses have been far more rewarding than the bearish crosses:

Thurs 7th Nov (5.50 am)

MSFT: I see this is trading over the key $37 level today and up 3.5% as I type. My Jan $35 Call Option though has moved from $1.33 to $3.15. Now, that is an increase of 135%!

Thurs 7th Nov (5.15 am)

Indices: both the USDX and EURX have bounced off their daily Ichimoku Clouds:

USDX: bounced back down:

EURX: bounced back up:

USDX: for the USDX this bounced down from the Cloud corresponds to the daily bear trend line AND the key S/R level of 80.70. 80.70 is the 50% fib pull back level of the last major down move:

EURX: For the EURX this bounce up off the Cloud corresponds to a testing of the broken trend line. ECB news will most likely determine whether this trend line will be respected or not:

FX: there isn’t much to note on the charts other than choppiness ahead of ECB:

E/U: hovering above the support trend line:

E/J: ditto

A/U: holding above the 0.95

A/J:

Cable: bouncing off the 61.8%?

Kiwi: ditto

U/J: heading for the triangle trend line:

AUD/NZD

GBP/AUD:

Wed 6th Nov (8.20 pm)

No new TS signals. I’m not really expecting anything too much to happen until after ECB on Thursday.

Wed 6th Nov (6 pm)

E/U: the Cloud chart shows this pair above the daily Kumo and without a bearish cross just yet:

Kiwi: some positive data lifted this pair today but there wasn’t a clean TS signal off the 4hr charts. Like so often during these periods of Ichimoku divergence though, better signal trade opportunities were to be sourced off the 30 min charts:

Wed 6th Nov (4.20 pm)

Indices:

The USDX is still being contained by the daily Cloud and the daily trend line:

EURX: this is hovering above thin Cloud but is below the support trend line still:

USD/JPY: A very worthwhile video from Dean Malone. BTW: He’s got the same ‘flag’ pattern as me and, probably, most of the world.

Wed 6th Nov (1 pm)

USD/JPY: A very worthwhile video from Dean Malone. BTW: He’s got the same ‘flag’ pattern as me and, probably, most of the world.

No new TS signals. The markets are clearly waiting for ECB and, then, NFP.

Wed 6th Nov (9.10 am)

No new TS signals, even with the Kiwi move.

Wed 6th Nov (7.10)

E/U: The E/U could retrace up to the S/R level of 1.365 if, at Thursdays press conference, ECB Draghi is less pessimistic than expected. The 1.365 is also the region of the 50% pullback of the latest down move and the region of the monthly pivot. There is a fierce looking Bollinger band in its way before any retrace up that far though:

E/U 4hr

E/U daily:

Any talk about further Euro easing though might see the support trend line give way.

Further movement from there might depend then on Friday’s NFP. A positive NFP result might see the USD gain on renewed ‘early QE tapering’ thoughts and this would hurt the E/U.

Wed 6th Nov (6.45)

Indices: The USDX is hovering near the daily bear trend line. The EURX is pushing down through its support trend line though:

USDX daily

EURX daily:

EURX weekly: last week’s bearish engulfing was a good clue here:

Most instruments have just been plain choppy. I really think that this will be the case until after the ECB news on Thursday.

I have noticed that MSFT, which I discussed yesterday and really has my interest, is up 0.55 cents or 1.5% though!