Monday, July 26, 2010

North Carolina and Washington Question Suggestions

For this week's polls, which we're going to get into the field a little earlier in the week than we usually do, we're doing our monthly North Carolina survey and also taking a first look at the Washington race.

As always we'd love suggestions on things to poll in those states beyond the obvious. In particular, what Republicans should we look at as possible 2012 Maria Cantwell opponents?

For Washington, I would be interested in the jungle primary numbers. Since Dino Rossi has become a perpetual candidate for office, he seems like a likely choice to take on Cantwell in 2012 if he loses to Murray. Dave Reichert might also be a noteworthy opposition candidate.

Well, as long as you asked it for Boxer and Fiorina, let's get a sample from the other side of the country so we can see if the partisan numbers hold up. Ask it regularly and you could probably write it up for the Annals of Improbable Research:

For Washington, I'd ask about Initiative 1098 (http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/initiatives/text/i1098.pdf), which plans to create an income tax for high earners (Washington has never had an income tax before).

For 2012, you might want to look at the Governor's race instead: Rep. Jay Inslee and state Sen. majority leader Lisa Brown on the Dem side, and AG Rob McKenna and perennial candidate Dino Rossi on the GOP side. (It's pretty much an open secret that he'd much rather be governor than senator.) I haven't heard any speculation about who might be interested in taking on Cantwell in 2012. Maybe Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers?

Whatever you do, don't forget to run the WA-Sen race (presumably in the same sample) as both jungle primary (Murray/Rossi/Didier/Akers) and two-way general (Murray/Rossi... and maybe Murray/Didier, as unlikely as that is).

The most obvious choice for 2012 is Rep. Dave Reichert, who is constantly recruited for higher office in WA. He faces a tough re-election every year, and may want to move up. The only other two names mentioned are Rep. Cathy McMorris Rogers and former TV anchorwoman and King County executive candidate Susan Hutchison. She was the NRSC's second choice to Rossi this year.

It's not Washington specific, but I want to know what percentage of people look at polls and what percentage of those are influenced by them. Some people on the web think that a pollster can influence an election and I'm skeptical.

The Jungle Primary is the most important question. I've seen nothing about it. (Would Dems vote for Didier to keep Rossi off the ballot?)

Related to McKenna. In a blue state, there's a GOP A.G. who wants to join the legal challenge to health care reform. It's a bit old, but maybe now that the debate is so far in the past, maybe see if people still (don't) want him to.

The WA state initiative about creating an income tax is GREAT! There's also TWO about privitzing liquor sales.

I believe a few questions about American Voter's knowledge of the Civil Rights movement would be illuminating. What were Freedom Riders. When did Congress pass Voters Rights Act? I bet you get some frightening results.

For NC, you should ask a approval/disapproval question about the NC General Assembly.

You could also ask voters opinion on how to close the $3 billion hole in the state budget next year: Layoff teachers and public employees? Across the board cuts? Raise the sales tax? Raise taxes on the wealthy?

You could also ask about support for high speed rail and local transit systems.