Learning for a change! T he role and challenges of social learning for climate change adaptation

C. Vogel (University of the Witwatersrand, JOhannesburg, South Africa)

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Learning for a change! T he role and challenges of social learning for climate change adaptation

C. Vogel (1) (1) University of the Witwatersrand, Global Change and Sustainability Institute, JOhannesburg, South Africa

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Climate change is an additional challenge that arguably we all have to factor into our lives including in local livelihood, local and national government and other decision-making contexts. A commonly heard ‘mantra’ now is “behaviour change” emerging from a sense of urgency that individuals and societies must ‘change’ behavour so that we can both mitigate and adapt to climate change. Some seem to argue, for example, that we need well-planned ‘dialogue’. But such calls for ‘dialogue’ and ‘change’ cannot be made in social vacuums. Issues of power as to ‘whose behaviour should change?’, ‘for what and whose purposes?’ and ‘who is setting the dialogue agenda?’ are some of the issues and questions that need careful consideration. In this paper, the background to social change and learning issues in various contexts is given focusing on developing country contexts. Examples of serious attempts to make inputs in southern Africa, using social learning approaches, are provided in various climate relevant and development areas e.g. water, food and disaster risk reduction. The challenges that arise and possible ways forward are sketched using some emerging evidence from the ‘field’.

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Realizing Low Carbon Society (LCS) has become a common understanding of the global community of researchers, policymakers and citizens engaged with the concerns of climate change and sustainable development. LCS gained currency when it was realized that, on the one hand drastic GHG emission cuts necessitating major changes in energy systems and socio-economic structures are essential to prevent dangerous climate change, and on the other hand every country’s domestic developmental goals must not be compromised. Attempts to achieve convergence among the multiple goals of global climate change mitigation, national economic development, poverty elimination, sustainable development and environmental protection, have led to the importance of LCS and related paradigms.

The role of Asia is becoming more and more important, considering the rapid economic growth expected in the coming decades and projected doubling of greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 to 2050 if efforts are not made toward achieving LCS. The reduction of emissions in Asia is imperative for transition by 2050 to a worldwide LCS that has halved GHG emissions from 2005 level. Transition to low carbon emissions and low-resource consumption societies, while simultaneously improving the economic standards of living is vital for sustainable development. Asia has many opportunities to realize an LCS by leapfrogging.

We have been engaged in the development of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), which assesses policy options for stabilizing the global climate, particularly in the Asian-Pacific region, with the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and avoiding the impacts of climate change. Modeling is essential to understand the future pathways and support policy making processes for transformation to LCS.

Sustained efforts have been made to develop AIM model and transfer it to various Asian countries for developing LCS scenarios in each country over the past two decades. These include science-policy dialogues to implement LCS scenarios. One of important networking activities is Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) which was established in 2012 to formulate and better enable the implementation of science-based policies for low-carbon development in the region. This is expected to become an autonomous researchers’ network based on south-south cooperation in the region in the near future.

Several international research platforms of researchers have already made tremendous contribution to comparative analysis of socio-economic characteristics among different countries and stakeholders. They have developed integrated assessment models for setting de-carbonization future targets and optimal roadmaps, and shared the implementation process in designing collective solutions for national low carbon policies, infrastructure plans, eco-model city designs and industrial transformation processes. During all such collaborative research network activities, analytical methods, simulation models and evaluation indicators have been shared, investigated and refined.

The presentation will provide an overview of various analytical methods and tools used as a common scientific framework in Asia. This will include the integrated future scenario simulation system for a de-carbonization society and development roadmaps to achieve the 2 degree target. The presentation will also provide implementation examples from Asia that showcase transformative actions towards de-carbonization.

Implementing the long term transition towards Low Carbon Societies

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The work of IPCC and international governments has clearly established the global problem of climate change and identified possible solutions. It makes very clear that achieving a global climate compatible Low Carbon Society entails a "great transition" will change economies and technology and involve all societal groups to work together on coherent long term oriented strategies. This means that societies have to jointly develop long term visions that are able to guide short term oriented interests and activities. Such a venture needs engagement between all societal groups on all levels from local to global. The keynote will highlight the relevance as well as the potentials of collaboratio between sceience and society by highlighting two relevant examples on Global as well as regional levels and by this making clear, what is needed for a global LCS transition.

In 2008 the G8 environment ministers decided to contribute to the global challenge of co-evolution of Low Carbon strategies between policy science and society. Based on a proposal by Japan they decided to create the Low Carbon Scoiety Research Network. A network of science and governments of the G8 together with researchers from developing countries with a purpose to link together national discussions and strategies on LCS and to convey core LCS issues to international policy makers. The network has so far identified a clear international set of issues and was able to convey them into policymakers discussions.

Global approaches, however, need similar ones on other levels. One very intensive example is the climate law and strategy of the German state of North-Rhine Westphalia. This region hosts over 50% of German coal fired power generation and energy intensive industries, but is determined to achieve ambitious climate mitigation. In order to make progress towards the goals and to create a cross-societal movement a broad and long term oriented stakeholder process was implemented that already resulted in a policy program supported by all stakeholder groups.

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Understanding the societal, economic and environmental issues raised by the climate change at both global and local level calls for the synergy of disciplinary knowledge and cooperation between all stakeholders of international community. It is widely recognized that today’s youth will be the first group affected by the consequences of climate change on the socio-economic-environmental biosphere tomorrow, they will and should be the engine of a collective and participatory intelligence that would contribute to concrete proposals for curtailing the accelerated global warming. This requires creating opportunities for expression and exchange between the young citizens from diverse sociocultural backgrounds and interaction with researchers on the state of the climate situation and scientific knowledge on the one hand, and enabling them to discuss possible solutions on the other hand.

The "Global Youth Climate Pact " project gather a multidisciplinary team to build a global intercultural exchange network targeting young people from several countries (e.g. Argentina, Burkina Faso, Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, France, Guinea, Italy, Nepal, Chad, USA…), known as Transformative knowledge network of global youth (TKNGY) to bridge the knowledge gap between scientists and civil society, i.e. young people engaged in activities for securing global sustainability across the world. The TKNGY platform is established with the purposes of advancing the aggregate knowledge of civil society in particular the Youth for shaping an overall vision and defining feasible local action plan as a contribution to global climate policy.

The project seeks to leverage interdisciplinary knowledge and intercultural experience sharing between Youth in light of carving out a global climate strategy based on bottom-up approach. The network will be conceived as a new source of knowledge pool to facilitate open exchange and dialogue between diverse youth groups as well as with their interactions with global community by harnessing Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and social media. Two “crowdsourcing” tools, an online platform and offline focus groups, are dedicated to gather and share relevant data that will allow local young people to access and improve the scientific knowledge of sustainability and climate change and to develop skills of discernment regarding these issue areas.

The permanent online platform and scheduled offline meetings between young people from different parts of the world will commit to securing sustainable economic growth and to strengthen the solidarity between youth and local communities as well as taking local actions to address climate change. This platform will be constantly enriched and improved through young people’s innovative thoughts and ideas within a non homogeneous economic, social and cultural context. It will also lead to the restitution of data on scientific knowledge and analysis of the perception and the proposals of the young students on climate change from an interdisciplinary research perspective. It must be emphasized that the interdisciplinary treatment of a scientific topic is concerned not only with the technological &socioeconomic aspects but also to those related to age, gender and culture.

Multi-dimensional analysis of the first results which will emerge at a meeting gathering all the actors of the project in Toulouse in May 2015 will be the aim of this scientific communication. Results are expected to mark a significant step in enhancing knowledge, training and implementation in addressing scientific questions in regard to climate sustainability. The success calls on global community to bring together knowledge of environmental scientists and social scientists as well as associating engineers and practical know-how by paying a particular attention to intercultural dialogue/understanding, from which a collective intelligence of solutions especially among young people could emerge. The project expects to deliver a "Global Youth Climate Pact " at the Paris COP-21 in Dec 2015 as a result of a series of collaborative work between young students with the support of various international institutions including academia and NGOs as well as regional governments.

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Doing Much More with the Same: Institutional Change and Social Learning for Sustainable Development Outcomes

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Climate change adds considerable uncertainties and complexities to what are already multidimensional development challenges. It is increasingly likely that we are already locked into a two-degree temperature rise, whatever happens to global greenhouse gas emissions even in the near-term. There is ample evidence that the resources needed to deal with the adaptation challenges exceed the resources currently mobilized for it. However, it is not just about resources: the approaches that many of our institutions are taking are failing to address the level of complexity and the cross-scalar nature of the challenges that are triggered by climate change in the context of development. Business as usual is, simply, not fit for purpose. This is becoming increasingly recognised at different levels, from partners on the ground right up to international funding agencies.

In response, a lot of useful practical and theoretical work is being undertaken on the value of learning and reflective practice as a way to bring together different knowledges and to address the multiple dimensions of complex problems, and to take learning beyond the local into much wider networks of practice. Social learning and similar learning based approaches are building a compelling body of evidence on their potential at more localised scales, but we know that the scale of the climate change challenge demands more than isolated community scale actions. Supported by recent scholarship in this area, we argue that the principles emerging from these local-level learning approaches are equally applicable at higher scales, and have the potential to achieve an important shift in thinking across levels. Such work is providing increasing clarity as to what kinds of research, collaboration, and disposition to problem solving are needed to address the levels of complexity and uncertainty we are facing under climate change in a development context.

This need for doing things differently, however, is not yet reflected in most organisations addressing the climate change challenge. This is in part because of the response from organisations funding research for development that place much of the onus on taking transformative change to scale on actors and initiatives working at the "last mile" of planning and practice. While work at this level is critically important, it is not sufficient, and this emphasis sometimes leads to a focus on “silver bullet” technological fixes rather than broader systemic changes.

We need to be seeing the emergence of joined-up learning-oriented models of practice, at all levels. By changing the way our own institutions think about fostering solutions to wicked problems like climate change, we can have a much longer-term impact on how knowledge and action link up in this field. However, this requires social learning or related approaches to instil institutional and organisational change. We currently have very few examples of success at these levels to guide us.

Thus, the Climate Change and Social Learning Initiative has embarked on a process to contribute to a solid evidence base concerning the costs and benefits of social learning in different contexts. This is one of a number of iterative, learning-based approaches that offer a potential avenue for significant change. Jointly with other research for development organisations we are testing a common monitoring and evaluation framework to systematically collect evidence, analyse results and share learning on when and how research initiatives may benefit from social learning-oriented approaches.

The evidence we are building should show tangible proof of the added value of these approaches towards achieving development outcomes. To take things to the required scale, the stakes need to be raised: we need nothing less than a major re-think as to how research for development is used as a vehicle for tackling one of the most complex challenges of our time. To this end, this contribution will conclude with a set of “pathways to transformation” with which we challenge institutions funding and supporting climate change research for development to pursue.

18:14

Systemic and social learning approaches for climate change adaptation: Experiences from transboundary work in Southern Africa

S. Pollard (Association for Water and Rural Development, Hoedspruit, Limpopo, South Africa), H. Biggs (Association for Water and Rural Development, Hoedspruit, Limpopo, South Africa), D. Du-Toit (Association for Water and Rural Development, Hoedspruit, Limpopo, South Africa), K. Taryn (Association for Water and Rural Development, Hoedspruit, Limpopo, South Africa), C. Vogel (University of the Witwatersrand, JOhannesburg, South Africa)

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Systemic and social learning approaches for climate change adaptation: Experiences from transboundary work in Southern Africa

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For climate change adaptation to be successful attention needs to be given to how people might learn to adapt. Theories of social learning enable an exploration of adaptive capacity and how people are learning to deal with climate change amidst a range of other challenges, whilst systemic approaches enable thinking about complex and often unpredictable situations. In South Africa the RESILIM-Olifants project is a multi-year learning approach that is enabling actors at various levels, from households through to catchment management agencies and transboundary organisations to build resilience to climate change in creative ways. Lying at the core of the systemic, social learning process is a collaborative scoping of context and of risk (including climate change) which, when viewed though a systemic lens, helps stakeholders understand change within complex and dynamic environments. Some of the lessons and challenges learnt in this 'creative transdisciplinary endeavor', which is being led by the Association for Water and Rural Development, will be outlined, critiqued and shared.

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Low carbon development in China is on the purpose for both national sustainable development and global climate change action. For the global climate change target “to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels”, China need to peak CO2 emission at latest at 2025, and falling into deep cut on CO2 emission, based on the IPCC report(IPCC AR5, 2014). Previous studies on emission scenario shows that it is possible for China to peak CO2 emission by 2030 if strong policies are adopted, and with a relatively high cost. Peaking CO2 emission before 2025 is a very big challenge for China. Modeling study by IPAC on the 2 degree target said it is also still possible for China to peak CO2 emission before 2025, but several pre-condition are needed, including optimazing economy development, further energy efficiency improvement, enhanced renewable energy and nuclear development, CCS etc .

In recent years, China's policy making process moved much faster tan before to tackle climate change issues. Started from 12th Five Year Plan, CO2 intensity target over GDP growth was set up for 2015. And domestic actions including emission trading, low carbon provinces and cities pilot program. The most remarkable achievement is the China-US Joint Announcement on Climate Change, it mentioned about the disire for global 2 degree target, and China set up year to peak CO2 emission, and express that to continue to work to increase ambition over time. Besides this, China's policies on low carbon energy utilization including renewbale energy and nuclear is moving very faster. By 2013, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power generation accounts for more then 1/3 of globale total. If put hydro and nuclear power together, China accounts for more than 40% to total newly installed capacity of the world.

In order to support the policy making process, China established a Climate Change Expert Panel for official advise. They relys on large amount of research work to make suggestion. Beside this, there are many workshops and internal meetings to discuss the possible implementation of policies on mitigation of GHG. The policy making on climate change depends much on reserch support. Our researches were adopted in the national peaking year setting, and ETS design. And now we are working on the carbon tax, which is regarded as another significant policy in China.

China also made efforts to promote south-south collaboration. China already leaded several dialog on south-south forum on climate change, and rpovided funding to help other developing countries for capacity building. This will be a direction for China to join international collaboration to help developing countries to respond to climate change.

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Science-policy-stakeholder dialogues about Low Carbon Society:

Lessons from the Brazilian Case

Achieving a Low Carbon Society entails a "great transition" of economies and technology requiring the involvement and action of different societal groups. This keynote will draw the lessons from a science-policy-stakeholder dialogue about mitigation GHG emission scenarios for Brazil.

A participatory process to discuss the economic and social implications of five mitigation scenarios for Brazil up to 2030 was held from April 2014 to March 2015, coordinated by the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change. It involved a Scenario Building Team (SBT) of 70 members from the government, business sector, non-governmental organizations (from the environmental field and trade unions) and the scientific community. A technical modelling team (TMT) coordinated by the Brazilian member of LCS-RNet (CentroClima/COPPE/UFRJ) has provided scientific support to the process. Upon draft proposals suggested by TMT, SBT selected qualitative storylines of plausible and pertinent futures based upon economic and technological assumptions. TMT has translated these inputs in quantitative projections of key variables depicting economic and GHG emissions, calculated through mathematical models representing the Brazilian economy and technical systems: IMACLIM-BR (CGE macroeconomic model especially designed for long-term GHG emission scenarios building) and sectorial models for energy, land use and forestry, IPPU and waste. The general objective was to design exploratory long-term scenarios, and not forecasts or a normative scenario: the goal was not to supply the most probable nor the most desirable scenario. A comparative analysis between the governmental plan scenario and two additional mitigation scenarios (implemented through two different sets of policy tools) helped to identify key economic and social implications of additional mitigation policies and measures, including the impacts on GDP, inflation, trade balance, employment, income distribution and household consumption across different income classes. The dissemination of the dialogue outcome has provided valuable inputs to the Brazilian society debate on the INDCs submitted to COP21.

This dialogue was part of the MAPS project (Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios), coordinated by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). Similar participatory processes were adopted in the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios project in South Africa, and in similar dialogues around long-term mitigation scenario in Chile, Colombia and Peru.

Given the huge challenge for developing countries of achieving social and economic development goals through a environmentally sustainable and climate-compatible pathway, science-policy-stakeholder dialogues of this kind about Low Carbon Society may play a valuable role and provide a helpful contribution to a more democratic and enlightened decision-making process.