Murkowski Appears to Lead but Braces for Long Wait

ANCHORAGE -- The flood of write-in ballots in Alaska's unusual Senate race persuaded election officials on Wednesday to start counting the names on ballots a week earlier than planned.

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Sen. Lisa Murkowski at the polls.
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By early Wednesday, Alaska's incumbent senator, Lisa Murkowski, appeared to have a growing lead over her tea-party rival -- but she wasn't celebrating yet. Ms. Murkowski and Joe Miller, both Republicans, are instead preparing for a wait to find out who won the race, as more than 20,000 absentee ballots trickle in over the next two weeks and are added to the nearly 202,000 early and Election Day ballots that have already been counted.

Election officials had planned to start counting names on ballots on Nov. 18 but moved the date to Nov. 10 when they saw the write-in numbers, said Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell in an interview. The process is expected to take three days, he said. Both camps said they plan to observe that process to make sure ballots are counted correctly, and either camp could challenge the name-counting decisions in state court. The election likely won't be certified until around Nov. 29.

The development comes following Ms. Murkowski's defeat to Mr. Miller in an August primary. At that point, Ms. Murkowski chose to run an unusual campaign to persuade Alaskans to write in her name on the ballot instead of choosing a named candidate-a strategy that was last successful when Strom Thurmond won his Senate seat in 1954.

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But by early Wednesday morning, Ms. Murkowski appeared comfortably ahead, with 41% of Alaskans voting for a write-in candidate, while 34.2% chose Mr. Miller and 23.7% opted for Democrat Scott McAdams. The vast majority of write-in ballots were likely cast for Ms. Murkowski. For comparison's sake, in the last two Senate elections in Alaska, write-in ballots represented fewer than 1% of the total.

"You can't say that it`s over, but it sure looks like it's headed in that direction," said longtime Alaska pollster Dave Dittman, who had predicted Ms. Murkowski would win despite the barriers.

A victory by Ms. Murkowski would mean one less notch in the tea-party movement's belt and an embarrassment for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a strong supporter of Mr. Miller.

"We're feeling very good right now,'' Ms. Murkowski told reporters, but she added that she plans to wait until all the votes are counted before declaring victory.

A spokesman for Mr. Miller didn't respond to a request for comment. Mr. Miller's campaign manager, Robert Campbell, expressed disappointment about Ms. Murkowski's lead, but said, "At the same time, there's no quitting.'' He said his candidate would wait for all the votes to arrive before conceding defeat.

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"There was not the expectation that the write-in count would be so high," said Mr. Campbell, the lieutenant governor. "I believe that the public and the candidates should get the information sooner rather than later."

Ms. Murkowski said as the results came in, "we wrote the book on how to run a write-in campaign.'' She said her strategy centered on entering the race early and educating Alaskans about the write-in process, chanting "Fill it in! Write it in!'' and handing out rubber wristbands imprinted with her name. The incumbent senator, who was appointed to her seat in 2002 and defended it two years later, also emphasized her experience in the Senate.

Deanne O`Brien, a 38-year-old teacher`s assistant, said she kept a Post-It note with the candidate`s name in her pocket as a "cheat sheet'' and felt "confident'' that she had voted correctly. "She has the most seniority, and that's what we need,'' Ms. O'Brien said.

Ms. Murkowski won't have much time to celebrate her tentative victory as she prepares for possible legal challenges over which write-in ballots should be counted in her favor, while Mr. Miller's camp will aim to make the case that certain of them shouldn't.

''We'll make sure to do whatever is appropriate'' to see that votes are "counted accurately,'' Ms. Murkowski said. Mr. Campbell, of Mr. Miller's campaign, said when the names on ballots are counted, "If we think the law is being broken, then, absolutely, there will be litigation.''

One question is what should count as a vote for Ms. Murkowski. Doug Clinger, a 48-year-old fisherman who voted for Ms. Murkowski, said the write-in process was straightforward, but when asked by a reporter how to spell Ms. Murkowski`s name, he said, "M-U-R-K-O-K-S-K-I.''

Luckily for Mr. Clinger, the Division of Elections has said minor misspellings of Ms. Murkowski's last name will probably still be counted in her favor, and the candidate herself is expected to argue in favor of such misspellings and others.

Mr. Miller, meanwhile, could say certain misspellings shouldn't count-especially with similarly named candidates registered as write-ins, including a Lee Hamerski and a Lisa M. Lackey.

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