Monday, September 29, 2014

All three major election forecasting models forecast GOP winning Senate...

All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick
in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to
retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to
the party’s strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.
The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post’s Election
Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of
winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67
percent while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60 percent
probability. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65 percent
chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55 percent and
FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55 percent.
All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the
open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating
Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net
Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the
majority.Keep on reading…