North Atlantic Hurricane Watch 2014-

Yes, I know it's a bit early and currently quite cold so tropical storm systems are probably the last thing on anyone's minds who live in areas in
which such things are wont to occur. But I've got the time and inclination presently, so here goes

Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Tropical Depressions, or Tropical Waves can be reported in this thread. Significant or particularly destructive storms
can of course also be reported as individual threads.

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2014. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World
Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2015. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2020 season. This is the same list
used in the 2008 season with the exception of Gonzalo, Isaias, and Paulette, which replaced Gustav, Ike, and Paloma, respectively. The first name to
be used this season is Arthur.

If you've got a link, please share it. The more prepared we are, the better able we will be to help others.

If it isn't mentioned in the above linked references, make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone/lap top batteries. If you don't have a
generator, buy yourself a couple of power inverters and you can use your vehicle as a
generator for a bit if need be.

We identify the formation of Category 5 hurricanes occurring mainly around the decadal minimum variation of African dust and in deep water areas
of the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane eyes have the lowest pressure. According to our results, future tropical cyclones will not evolve to Category 5
until the next decadal minimum that is, by the year 2015 +/- 2.

And looking at the statistics for 2011, we can see that there was not a Cat 5 storm in the North Atlantic, and only 2 Cat 4 storms.

Will be interesting to look back at the end of this season and see if it holds true.

And we can see that in looking hack to the 2013 season, we still have not had any Cat 5 storm; in fact we haven't had any over Cat 3...

Hurricanes are heat transfer engines that move heat away from the equator toward the poles. Now, the northern seasons have been on a bit of a lull and
the paper linked above seems to have a plausble mechanism.

We shall see if this continues and look back at the end of this season for further analysis.

Thanks for the kudos. I'm working on my next couple of posts for that thread. RL has intruded and made more demands of my time of late so that thread
has been shuffled to a back burner for the time being. Not to worry, more is coming.

In keeping with my prior contributions to two of the other 'Watch' threads of this year
(Quake Watch & Volcano
Watch), here is something on the subject of electricity and hurricanes:

A survey of reports of electrical activity in hurricanes and typhoons from flight notes and personal experience (18 years, >230 eyewall
penetrations for R. A. Black; 20 years for J. Hallett, plus that of others at the Hurricane Research Division), and perusal of flight notes dating
from 1980, show that lightning in and within 100 km or so of the eyewall is usually sparse. However, occasionally, significant electrical activity
(>one flash per minute) occurs in or near the eyewall.

...

Since cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning can be observed with remote detection networks that provide the polarity and frequency of CG lightning, there is
potential that hurricane evolution may be detected remotely and that lightning may be usable as an indicator of a change in the storm intensity and/or
track.

Abstract—The mechanisms of incipience and intensification of dangerous atmospheric vortex processes such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and their
interaction with the Earth’s ionosphere are considered. Different models of TCs are analyzed, including models taking into account the ionization
processes. The mechanisms taking into account the spiral field of velocities during TC formation are analyzed, as are the physical mechanism that
explains the statistical correlation between short term variations in galactic cosmic rays (Forbush decreases) and the frequency of incipience and the
intensification of TCs. It is shown that such an effect is conditioned by a decrease in the ion production rate during Forbush decreases against
the tropopause and, hence, a decrease in the temperature upon the top of the ionosphere altitude because of a decrease in the latent heat release due
to watervapor condensation on the newly formed ions. This process leads to an increase in the temperature difference between the ocean surface and the
top level of TCs and, respectively, to the intensification of vertical convection, which results in cyclone intensification. It is concluded that the
study of these mesoscale vortex processes requires taking into account not only the hydrodynamical features of these formations, but also their
thermodynamical and electrodynamical properties. The results are important for the organization of studying and monitoring TCs with the use of
space borne techniques.

...

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of problems of TC generation and their interaction with the Earth’s atmosphere shows that the helicity of cyclogenesis should be
considered when simulating these phenomena, as should the electromagnetic properties of these structures due to processes of ionization from
different sources: on the underlying surface (natural radioactivity) and outside (cosmic rays) and inside of a hurricane (thunderstorm activity,
corona discharges on drops, and breakdown on escaping electrons). Electromagnetic forces inside a TC can affect its dynamics, in particular, the
development of inverse cascade instability. Ionization results in increased heat release in regions of intense ion formation, which apparently causes
the formation of hot towers inside a hurricane with high thunderstorm activity.

The effective charge separation inside a vortex structure results in the formation of a strong electric field on the top edge of a hurricane
penetrating into the ionosphere and producing local inhomogeneities in the ionospheric E and F regions. A difference in the tropospheric conductivity
inside a TC and outside it can be a source of ionospheric anomalies, resulting in a change in ionospheric potential over it.

So, it would seem that there are correlations to cosmic ray activity and Tropical Cyclonic systems. Enough so that further study is recommended.

I find it encouraging that more scientists are taking a closer look at the role electricity plays in various processes and systems. Prior to the
adoption of the Standard Model, electricity was heavily investigated and studied. Once nuclear physics took over, any further study of the role
electricity plays in various phenomena as central to that phenomena's existence or organization was ignored or actively discouraged.

That is changing and I'm interested in finding out what taking such paths uncovers.

Watching the way Sandy hit us straight on, along with these awful snowstorms, week after week, after week, starting to worry about the track of the
upcoming hurricanes.....nerve wracking. Seems we have been in the bulls eye for every northeastern storm since Sandy...TY for the info OP. S&
F.....

Recon flight maps & data in a non-confusing form (props to the site for the info!)
Edit: That Tropical Tidbits Recon page seems to be having trouble ATM. Here's the Recon page from
tropicalatlantic.com for now instead. Data page is directly underneath "Live Atlantic recon in the last 30 minutes..." Or just
click here to go directly to the data page for today's flight into Arthur.

This looks like it's going to ride up the east coast, North Carolina's probably looking at a hurricane landfall in a few days. As usual get your
hurricane supplies in order, and keep your eyes peeled, everyone

a reply to: Nyiah
O, I've been worried about his years hurricane season since I posted in March. Which Is right above your post...Arthur's on the way.....I just
didn't expect it to start so early. Sure hope this doesn't take the same track as most of other recent storms....TY for the info

This is an early storm for this region. I know the official hurricane season is Jun through November but here in the mid Atlantic our season is really
August/ September. July is our hottest and driest month so I'm really glad to see this mild system head in this direction. A nice drenching before it
gets really dry will help the lawns and trees.
A cat one is what I call a cleaning storm. Just strong enough to shake the dead branches out of trees but not strong enough to topple the trees. a
reply to: Nyiah

I'm right at the mouth of the bay near Norfolk and Hampton. We got some rain and a little wind but not much. It's sunny and warm again. Less humid
not as hot as it was the last two days. A reply to: magnum1188

I needed somewhere to put this and Quake Watch did not do it for me so here you go, the difference between the durations of Category Force storms
reported and the actual days on which the storms were at Category Force. Those of you who look at my Geophysical reports each week will be aware of
this. (You two need not bother with this)

Click for a larger image

This translates to a chart like this (Only the last 5 weeks in the image above - this is a full year)

Click for a larger image

This discrepancy between what is reported and what actually happened is growing as shown by the falling actual trendline -v- the rising reported
trendline.

This content community relies on user-generated content from our member contributors. The opinions of our members are not those of site ownership who maintains strict editorial agnosticism and simply provides a collaborative venue for free expression.