Egypt Inflation July 2019

Egypt: Inflation slows further in July despite fuel subsidy cuts

August 8, 2019

Consumer prices increased 1.8% in July compared to the previous month, contrasting the 0.8% decrease in June. The increase in July was primarily due to higher prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and transportation, which was driven by a cut in fuel subsidies by the government that came into effect at the start of the month.

Inflation decelerated to 8.7% in July from 9.4% in June, dipping below the 9.0% midpoint of the Central Bank’s Q4 CY 2020 target range of 6.0% to 12.0%. July’s reading was the lowest inflation rate since August 2015. Core inflation, which excludes energy prices, slowed to 5.9% in July, down from 6.4% in June. Average inflation over the past 12 months moderated to 13.4% in July from 13.9% in June.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 12.1% in CY 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 9.7% in CY 2020.

Author:Edward Gardner, Economist

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