Nastiness of primary race worries Republicans

by Dan Nowicki - Jul. 28, 2012 10:21 PMThe Republic | azcentral.com

A bruising Republican primary between former friends and political allies U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake and Mesa investor Wil Cardon is complicating GOP efforts to hold on to the retiring U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl's seat.

Polls show that Flake remains the front-runner, but Cardon's scorched-earth television-advertising campaign has some Republicans concerned that the six-term congressman could emerge as a wounded general-election candidate. Arizona has only about two months between its Aug. 28 primary and the Nov. 6 general election, not a lot of time for a candidate to rehabilitate his image after a grueling primary.

If the squabble results in Arizona electing Democrat Richard Carmona in November, it also could hamper the national Republican strategy to retake the Senate. The party needs to pick up at least four Senate seats while holding all 10 they are defending to guarantee a majority.

The high stakes and negative tone of the race prompted the two top Arizona GOP establishment figures to choose sides, and U.S. Sen. John McCain and Kyl endorsed Flake this month.

For his part, Cardon says he and his business record have been smeared in commercials from Flake and the Club for Growth, a national conservative group backing the congressman. Flake also has publicized in ads a finding by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement that some Subway sandwich restaurants partially owned by Cardon had employed at least 151 illegal immigrants.

But some say rather than hurting the Republican candidates' general-election prospects, such exchanges could provide Flake or Cardon, both first-time statewide candidates, with valuable campaign experience. Carmona, a former U.S. surgeon general under President George W. Bush and a combat-decorated Vietnam War veteran, is considered a formidable Democratic contender. He is unopposed in the primary.

Still, the negative GOP primary risks alienating voters from both Flake and Cardon.

"They're two people who could use some practice in the real world of politicking, but the late primary is a concern," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the nonpartisan, Washington, D.C.-based "Rothenberg Political Report." "With the increased negative tone, those unfavorable ratings won't just dissolve the day after the primary. Meanwhile, the Republicans are going to face a unique candidate who starts off with some bipartisan appeal."

Early voting in the primary begins Thursday.

Trading barbs

Few predicted the Flake-vs.-Cardon showdown would get so ugly.

Cardon is a past supporter of Flake's political campaigns and had agreed to serve on Flake's Senate campaign-finance committee before deciding last year to launch his own bid. Flake and Cardon live in the same Mesa neighborhood and worship in the same Mormon ward.

But Cardon has been pulling no punches in his largely self-funded campaign, slamming Flake, a former supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, as a liberal supporter of "amnesty" in lockstep with President Barack Obama, a Democrat.

Through June, Cardon had injected $7.5 million of his own money into the race. His campaign had $2.4 million on hand at the end of last month.

Flake's campaign has raised $4.9 million to date and reported having $2.8 million on hand at the end of June, but he also has an influential ally in the Club for Growth. The club has bundled $914,875 in contributions from its members for Flake's campaign while the club and its super PAC have spent more than $1 million on TV, radio and mailers. The ads blister Cardon for supporting a 2004 Maricopa County transportation tax and for belonging to the Urban Land Institute, which the club describes as "a liberal group that supports higher gas taxes on cap-and-trade energy taxes."

Two other lesser-known candidates also are in the Republican race: Clair "Van" Van Steenwyk, a conservative radio host, and Bryan Hackbarth, a former Youngtown mayor who was ousted in a 2006 recall election. Neither Van Steenwyk nor Hackbarth has gained any traction in public-opinion polls, and they have raised little money.

However, the anti-establishment feelings among many Republican activists have made for unpredictable outcomes. In this year's U.S. Senate primary in Nebraska, dark-horse contender Deb Fischer came from behind to win the Republican nomination.

"You have to assume that Flake is the favorite, but you also have to assume that you can't assume that the favorite will win any of these Republican primaries," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Some of Cardon's attacks strike at Flake's brand as a fiscal conservative and crusader against wasteful congressional spending. A recent round of Cardon TV ads highlight footage of Flake joking that he "lied" when he pledged to serve only three U.S. House terms and claim that Flake is "not honest on conservative issues." Another Cardon TV ad drew criticism for using an altered picture that made it appear as if Flake were standing with Obama at an event.

Despite the Cardon campaign painting him as an establishment "career politician," Flake has garnered the support of many political figures and groups often associated with conservative "tea party" candidates, including the Club for Growth, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, FreedomWorks for America and the Senate Conservatives Fund.

Flake, 49, said his record in Congress reflects a conservative philosophy that the federal government is too large and that it taxes and regulates too much. Like McCain, Flake pivoted from his longtime support of comprehensive immigration reform. He now insists that the border be secured before proceeding with a guest-worker program or a pathway to legal status for undocumented workers.

Flake expressed confidence that his candidacy would hold up under the withering assault from Cardon.

"I didn't expect it to get this nasty, but it is what it is, and we are where we need to be," Flake told The Arizona Republic. "Believe me, with the number of ads he's run, people have certainly seen them. It just doesn't seem as if people are buying it. So we feel good."

Behind in the polls

Cardon, 41, notes that he has made big strides in the polls since entering the race as an unknown political newcomer. From February until May, Cardon cut Flake's lead from 49 percentage points to 22 percentage points.

A poll released Wednesday indicates that Flake still has a 22-point advantage, but the Cardon campaign questioned the survey's credibility because it was paid for by a pro-Flake super PAC.

Cardon, president and CEO of the Mesa-based Cardon Group, is running as a Washington outsider and a jobs creator. He hails from the wealthy East Valley family that donated $10 million in 2009 toward construction of Banner's Cardon Children's Medical Center in Mesa. His supporters include U.S. Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz.; sports mogul Jerry Colangelo; former state Senate President Russell Pearce; Mesa Mayor Scott Smith; state Rep. Steve Montenegro; and the anti-"amnesty" organization Americans for Legal Immigration Political Action Committee, or ALIPAC.

"I think we're going to win," Cardon told The Republic. "Anyone who's watching this race knows it's a competitive race. Flake and his lobbyist friends have hit me with everything they have. They've hit me with every conceivable lie they can conjure up. ... That's not something you do if it's not a close race."

Cardon decried the "attack ads" from Flake and the Club for Growth while disputing the notion that his own hard-hitting commercials are negative. Cardon defended his ads against Flake as sticking to policy differences.

"I haven't called him names -- he called himself a liar, not me," Cardon said. "There are so many things about Jeff Flake that aren't conservative, that he's misrepresented, that there's no way possible, unless I had all the money in the world, to get those messages out."

Cardon also accused Flake of being in the pocket of the Club for Growth, which Cardon alleges has a "hidden agenda" in favor of "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. The club's stated economic agenda supports fiscally conservative priorities such as lower taxes.

"Why would a fiscal conservative group attack a businessman who has the same positions they do, then?" Cardon asked. "Unless they have a congressman who is completely captive to them. Or have some other hidden agenda. I am more of a fiscal conservative than Jeff Flake is."

Barney Keller, Club for Growth spokesman, said Cardon is lashing out because he is upset that the club exposed him as a phony conservative.

"He has spent his entire campaign attacking conservatives while pretending to be one himself," Keller said. "Wil Cardon is an impostor who doesn't even try to refute his past support of higher taxes."

Keller did not directly address Cardon's "amnesty" charge other than to say it is a "bizarre claim," considering the immigration troubles at the Subway shops, partially owned by Cardon.

Cardon's campaign confirmed to The Republic that Boa Sorte, a Cardon family limited partnership, is a 28 percent owner of RCC Partners, a Subway franchise company that operates the restaurants investigated by federal immigration officials. Cardon subsequently has said that his personal stake in RCC Partners is only 3 percent, but he recently declined a Republic request to elaborate on his relationship with Boa Sorte.

Cardon insists he has never had a role in "the day-to-day activities" of RCC Partners or the Subway shops in question.

Presidential effect

Arizona's Senate seat is one of 33 in play in 2012. The "Rothenberg Political Report" currently rates the race as leaning Republican.

Depending on how the race shapes up in the fall, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee might get involved, the report's Gonzales said. If Obama wins re-election, Republicans need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate. If GOP candidate Mitt Romney becomes president, Republicans need to pick up only three seats. Romney's vice president would be the tie-breaker.

"I think the parties will spend money if they either see a real opportunity on the Democratic side or see it as a real vulnerability on the Republican side," Gonzales said. "If Republicans want to take the majority, they have to hold onto their own seats and they can't afford to lose a state like Arizona."

But Flake and Cardon are being defined in the minds of many voters by the way they are defining each other in their negative ads.

For example, Bruce Merrill, a veteran Arizona political scientist, said the Subway-hiring controversy has put a dent in Cardon's appeal.

"People don't like Congress, etc., and here's this businessman from the outside who's running," Merrill said. "You would just kind of think that maybe there would be stronger support for Cardon, but it certainly doesn't seem to have developed."

Despite the mudslinging and bitter recriminations of the GOP primary, the eventual Republican nominee could get a lift in November from Romney. Although the possibility that Obama might carry Arizona, a traditionally Republican presidential state he lost in 2008, has prompted speculation, most national political handicappers expect Romney to win the state.

If that happens, Carmona would have to outperform Obama at the ballot box. That would be a daunting task even for a candidate with his bipartisan resume running against a primary-damaged Republican. The GOP has a voter-registration edge in Arizona.

"There are going to have to be a lot of Romney-Carmona voters for Carmona to win," Sabato said. "Good luck with that."