February 21, 2012

Santorum leads in Washington

Wedged between the Michigan/Arizona primaries and Super Tuesday the Washington state GOP caucus hasn't received a lot of attention. At least for now it looks like it could give Rick Santorum some momentum headed into the critical March 6th contests. He leads there with 38% to 27% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 12% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum is by far the most popular of the Republican candidates with 69% viewing him favorably to only 18% with a negative opinion. Romney is the only other one who even has a positive favorability rating. He's at 47/42. The disparity between Santorum and Romney's numbers in Washington resembles what we found for the contests two weeks ago in Missouri and Minnesota, both of which Santorum ended up winning by a healthy margin.

Next week looks like it could be disastrous for Gingrich. He's in 4th place in both Washington and Michigan, and in 3rd place in Arizona. He's not remotely close to finishing in the top 2 in any of those states. It's not just that Republican voters aren't planning to vote for Gingrich, they don't even like him any more. In Washington his favorability is upside down at 39/46 and the same is true in Michigan (39/50) and Arizona (43/48) as well.

Gingrich's continued presence in the state is a boost to Romney. If he pulled out before Washington 59% of his supporters say they'd move to Santorum, compared to only 13% who would go to Romney. That would make the overall standings Santorum 49, Romney 28, Paul 16- as long as Gingrich stays in and keeps splitting the conservative vote it's keeping Romney competitive.

Santorum may have the edge in Washington for now but the race there is volatile, as it seems to be for the Republicans everywhere right now. 50% of voters say they could change their minds between now and next week. One thing Romney has going for him is that 54% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, compared to only 48% of Santorum's who will say that. Among voters whose minds are completely made up the race tightens with Santorum leading only 40-32. If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona and sees momentum swing back in his direction, this state could get a lot closer.

The groups fueling Santorum's lead in Washington are the same ones he's doing well with everywhere: he's up 50-20 with Tea Partiers, 50-18 with Evangelicals, and 50-19 with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' His state by state formula for success definitely seems to include leading with each of those groups by at least 25 points.

Santorum's the favorite in Washington for now but if we've learned one thing in this race it's that if you don't like the polls just wait a few days and they might change. A Romney comeback is well within the realm of possibility.

This is cool but I doubt it means much until next Tuesday's results ... these voters are so fickle that I wouldn't be surprised at all if everything completely reverses by the time this caucus comes around.

For awhile I was starting to believe the GOP really would nominate Santorum... but I'm starting to think that's a pipe dream. Santorum won't be able to last long enough to actually put it away... he's just too nuts.

If Santorum is so popular, why doesn't he draw larger crowds? How can Washington GOP voters even THINK about voting for a Islamophobic, homophobic, war mongering hypocrite like Santorum? Naw, this is the party machine talking.

There are a few constants in this campaign, 1) a small portion of Republican voters have happily resigned themselves to Romney; 2) There is a similar number enthusiastically in the Ron Paul camp; and 3) the large majority of Republican voters will continue to desparately look elsewhere, which has allowed for this fascinating volatility.

Now, with only Santorum and Gingrich as the anti-Romney candidates, Gingrich knows well that he should not leave the race as long as conservatives fail to coalesce decisively behind Santorum.

The winner will be the last man standing, and could very well be the last anti-Romney candidate standing.

Santorum will not win. He's way too conservative and bigoted. He looks like a smug little kid who doesn't get his way. I just want to go up to him, squeeze his shoulder and say, "It's gonna be okay, man. Relax." Romney 2012!

At the end of the day, Santorum will be nothing more than the last of a string of "true conservative" alternatives to Mitt Romney who had their moment in the sun but who then ultimately wilted under the spotlight.

Santorum would be an absolute disaster as a candidate. he appeals to the Bible-thumpers, no doubt. But his ability to reach outside that core demographic group is basically zero. If he were to be the GOP nominee, moderate independent voters by the millions would flock to Obama. The result would be an electoral wipeout for the GOP. There are very good reasons why Santorum lost his bid for re-election to the US Senate by 17 points.

I'm rooting for Romney, he's a business man with a plan. His Mormon background doesn't bother me, but then again, I am white and mormons are racist.

I agree with you Danram about Santorum. I also think he is all about starting wars and having the power.

There is no way in hell that I would vote for Ron Paul. He's the opposite of Santorum. We would get our asses kicked by Canada if Ron Paul was elected.

Gingrich isn't worth consideration with his infidelities. If he's going to cheat on not one but two wives, why would I think he could be honest with me. He also seems to be the pure definition of a do nothing politician.

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