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Serbia are being overestimated here. They have had over 40 players go through the team in the past three years. The team they have now is without some players with more potential, who aren't there for difference reasons. They lack continuity and results, compared to Portugal. Since the beginning of 2017, Serbia have three wins in 11 games (both preparation games and qualifiers), only one by 5 or more goals (Austria 26-24, the Czech Republic 31-21 in qualifiers and 17-15 against Montenegro). They also have 8 defeats (Sweden 17-28, Croatia 17-21 and 12-27, Montenegro 25-22, 23-24, France 26-21, Spain 34-18, Germany 26-20). Portugal played three preparation games in March against the same rivals Serbia played in EC group stage (Germany 24-29, France 13-23, (8-9 at HT), and Spain 24-26). They got good results against Germany and Spain. Here in group stage against Montenegro, Portugal were just two goals behind with some 15 minutes left on the clock. In EC qualifiers, Spain played 25-25 with Switzerland and Switzerland trashed Serbia 29-17 in the 2015 U17 EC. Portugal played U17 EC that year and beat the Czechs 27-22.Serbia have slightly better offensive numbers here but their defense is weaker. They had more technical faults and some serious declines. I see a narrow win for either team and I definitively cannot imagine Serbia winning convincingly.
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Aside the fact Denmark are European champions from 2015 and World Championship finalists from 2016, these are their results this year: a 32-16 win over Portugal yesterday, two wins over the Netherlands (32-24 and 29-24) in May, a 32-16 win over Slovenia, 26-22 over Romania and a draw with Hungary this month. They have three convincing wins over Norway, Iceland and Sweden (34-22, 26-21 and 31-22) just days before this championship. To sum up, Denmark won 5 out of those 9 games by 8 goals or more and 8 of them by 4 or more. Almost all of those meetings were against Top 8 teams. Against Slovenia, who are similar to Montenegro, they had a 9-goal lead by half time and won by 16.

Another big advantage they have here is the number of good players they have. All of their players got time on the floor yesterday and that didn't affect the result at all. On the other hand, Montenegro do not have that kind of choice of players. Some of their players were on the floor the entire game yesterday which means they are tired and there isn't anyone good enough to replace them. I think the Portugal game set for Sunday is more important for them. That is why I believe Denmark will be very close to getting a new double-digits win here.
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Hungary controlled the Romania game from the start yesterday and won by 5. Romania beat the Netherlands 28-25 at a preparation tournament just a month ago (18-11 at ht). The Netherlands beat Sweden 26-23 yesterday, mostly because their zone was very good in the first half. Talking about Sweden, Hungary trashed them at last year's U18 WC 33-21 and unlike Sweden, who have very tall but not very fast back players, Hungary's players can switch between those three positions and can score from each of them. Let's also add they have fast transition and efficiency. European championship demands a lot of players and Hungary have the upper hand there as well. They have 4 other wins this season (3 by five or more goals, once by 2 goals and a draw against Denmark 29-29). The Danish team were dominant the last three years. They beat the Netherlands twice (32-24 and 29-24) in preparation games.
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Macedonia played no preparation games in the final stage of their preparation period. Their sparring partner was Macedonian younger team and they had just two tests against European teams. In those games we had a chance to see how much they can really do. They recorded two convincing defeats, first to Hungary 20-37 and then Montenegro 23-37. Macedonia have another defeat to Montenegro (16-27) from October of last year. Those defeats to Montenegro are interesting because Croatia played Montenegro in two test games. They lost one 17-24 and won the other one 22-19. That says Croatia are close to Montenegro when it comes to quality even though their results from the past two years say they have much greater potential. Let's just mention that Croatians beat France, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands twice in the last three years. All of those are Top 10 teams. Let's also add that Macedonia recorded 7 defeats at U17 EC and that they were all by more than 9 goals. Croatia are after one of the top two spots in the group. Goal difference might therefore be important and one way to pump the goal difference is against Macedonia.
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Macedonia have no illusion about this game. Just playing these qualifying games is good enough for them. Most of their players need more experience and more good games. When it comes to this two-legged meeting, Swedish fast-transition and defense do not suit Macedonia as we saw in test games they played with Russia (35-29 for Russia, 21-14 HT) and Turkey (38-29 FT, 20-16 HT). Let's also add the results from two friendly games Macedonia played with Serbia in March. They conceded 35 and 43 goals respectfully. Sweden, on the other hand, played Croatia three days ago to display offensive power in the very first game. It was 18-12 at half time, 35-28 in the end. It seems like they held back in the second half and allowed Croatia to get a dignified defeat. Croatia beat Macedonia twice easily in EC qualifiers (36-22, 35-19). Sweden are after the WC in Germany and I believe Sweden will take advantage of Macedonian defensive weakness and their slow transition. They will try and get a good lead in the first game.
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This should have been a live tip but in the meantime it became available on Pinnacle and with other bookies. We have two very motivated teams. The WC is at stake. Russia are the Olympic champions but Poland have done better in h2h games the last few years. Poland beat 29-26 them last season at EC to eliminated them from the competition. A year later, Poland recorded a new wins over Russia 21-20). Just three months later, the same teams met again in the Olympic qualifiers, which was played in Russia. The home team won 27-25 to get in the Olympics. Poland won 30-22 and Russia won 31-21 back in 2012. After the gold in Rio, Russia rebuilt the team and there are now only 7 of those who won gold in Rio on the list. Poland, on the other hand, have basically the same team that played EC late in 2016. Poland recorded all three defeats there, all three were unders (France 22-31, Germany 20-22, the Netherlands 21-30). Russia finished in 7 at that EC, 5 of their 6 games finished at under 55 goals (Croatia 32-26, Romania 17-22, Norway 21-23, Czech Republic 26-24, Denmark 26-26 Hungary 26-26).To sum up, we have two games which will decide the entire year. Also, we have 5 h2h meetings since 2012, 4 of which were unders. One was over with 55 goals but at half time it was at 24 goals. And finally, Russia have two overs and 1 under at the last friendly tournament in Antalia but those teams cannot be compared. Poland played Belarus at 47 in March, Ukrain at 43 and Slovakia 54. That's just another reason to believe in an under now.
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These two teams meet in the semis second leg which is played today and tomorrow in Bietigheim. Thuringer are runner-ups in Germany, while Metzingen finished in spot 3. What is relevant about the runner-ups is the number of injured players. That has not changed today. They are still without 5 players: Luzumova MB, Niederwieser LB, Scheffknecht LB, Planeta RB and goal keeper Krause. That means they will play with 1 goal keeper and 8 field players. They played like that the last 6 championship games to record 3 wins, 2 draws and one defeat. They beat easily the teams that had nothing to play for and played a draw with Buxtehuder who fought for spot 4. They lost by 11 in the last round to champions Bietigheim. Metzingen are among the top three German teams. They were in spot 2 after the first part of the season and later started lagging behind because they played two competitions and their top two players hot injured. After the defeat to Oldenburg in April, the coach was sacked and Edina Rott took over. They recorded three convincing wins with her and lost in the last game to Neckersulemr. That was an irrelevant game for Metzingen. When it comes to h2h games Metzingen won the first one 30-24 while Thuringer retaliated 35-28 in the second. Players who won't be there today scored 15 goals in total for Thuringer. Thuringer can win even with 8 players against teams that have nothing to play for. At the same time, they struggle with top team. Metzingen are just as ambitious as them, they are complete and they are favorites today.
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Dinamo beat Resita 32-23 yesterday, Slobozia and Resita are to play tomorrow. This is basically the game that will settle the race for top spot and decide who gets promotion. Slobozia finished the season in spot 12, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 17 defeats. They recorded just two wins in the last 10 championship rounds, 3 in total in 2017.In the previous seasons, their opponents were weaker and less ambitious, which is not the case this season. Dinamo finished the season in spot two of the Divison a (second division) and went into this season ambitiously. They have a great coach, some top division players. Dinamo finished the season with 25 wins and just one defeat. The only defeat was to Rapid in November (18-26 without 4 players who came to Dinamo for the second part of the season). Dinamo retaliated in the second part of the season 28-22. The two-goal deficit from h2h matches decided on the top spot in the league. Dinamo played more test games with top division teams during the season. They beat Slobozia 27-24, Braila 29-28, Corona Brasov 29-31, Ramnica Valcea 35-35. All those teams are better than Slobozia. Dinamo's ambition is not only to get in the top division. They want to be competition to CSM Buchustresti. They said some stars are to join the team, some more money is to be invested. All of that depends on these 60 minutes. They even expect ref and federation help is necessary to get the promotion. It seems like their quality will be good enough for that. This is available with multiple bookies, as well as live. The Unirea under 25,5 is a good option as well.
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Pogon and Koszalisnka are to end their season today. Pogon are in spot 5 and cannot improve, while their opponents sit in spot 6 and will finish there. Pogon won two out of 3 h2g meetings of this season, Koszalin won once (25-17). The last meeting, which was played in Koszalin some 3 weeks ago, was won by Pogon 30-16 (15-11 ht). Koszalin scored just one goal in the last 13 minutes. Two games were unders, but all three took place back when Pogon were in the race for top three spots. Koszalin were close to that as well. All three had the pace for over 50 goals. Let's also add that both meetings of last season finished at over 55 (28-28, 31-27). The margin is ow too high, neither team has much to play for, they both recorded three defeats in the last three games (4 out of 6 finished over 50, one at 47, one at 46). They are exhausted and I expect this to be something they want to just get over with.
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Just four days after grabbing the Bundesliga title with a win in Leverkusen, Bietigheim are to play the EHF final first-leg game against Rostov-Don from Russia. These teams already met twice in this competition this season. Rostov won both of those games, first at Ludwigsburg Arena23-20 and 34-24 in Rostov. Rostov reached the final through Metzingen (29-18 and 31-21). Rostov controlled the best and the third best offense in Bundesliga in all 4 games and never allowed over 24 goals. Both first games which they played with Bietigheim and Metzingen finished with under 50 goals. The home team has the best defense in Bundesliga with an average of 23 goals conceded. Rostov are dominant in Russia and average 21 goal. They started the European season in CL group stage. They were under 54 goals 4 times against very good defenses. They were at 55 once and 57 once. The home team said they will play for the result, with as few mistakes as possible. When we sum up, the defense numbers and the results of their head-to-head games a few months ago (43 and 58 goals) plus a potential game for the result in the first leg, it seems like the 54-goal margin is at least 2 goals too high.
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This is the third match of this series. The result after the first two match in this final is 1-1. Both were played in Stara Pazova. Vizura took a 1-0 lead 1-3 (16-25,25-22,12-25,23-25) while Jedinstvo retaliated with a 3-0 win (25-29,25-17,25-21). It's a best of three three format and Vizura are set to host the third and fourth match. This will be their 7th meeting of the season. Jedinstvo won 5 times, Vizura just once. At the start of the season (13 October), Jedinstvo won the Supercup final against the defending champions Vizura 3-2 in sets. They recorded two wins in regular season as well, In the Cup final, Jedinstvo recorded their third straight sets wins for their second trophy of the season. The 5th win for Jedinstvo was the last one, in the second final match. Why did they put up a poorer performance in the first match? Mostly the fact Jedinstvo played two games more in the semis against Tent and that the final fifth match was very long and took place only three days before the start of the final series. Vizura dealt with their semifinal opponents in three matches. Things went back to normal in the second match. Jedinstvo are more experienced, have a better quality bench unlike Vizura who mostly play with the same 8 players. Vizura changed 3 coaches this season and that needs to be notes as well. Home court advantage means nothing in this league and I expect Jedinstvo to respond today. They deserve to be the favorites based on results from this season. The game is widely available and paying more than the limit at Pinnacle isn't a problem.
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Fenerbahce won the second match of the final series in straight sets(25-20,25-23,25-21) to get just one step away from the title. Fener opened well from the start, they did better and were more stable on reception and blocking. They struggled a bit only in the second set. Overall, it was a well deserved win but we need to note two things from that match. In the second set when Galatasaray controlled the result at 13-14, their fans made a sound of a bomb going off for the third time which suspended the match +. Early in the third set, coach Ataman had an altercation with Fener's coach Abbondanza. Both were sent off. That affected the final score.

Only Galata's fans will be in the stands today, which was arranged beforehand. Their fans were under a constant pressure from the stands in the first two matches. Fener's fans are expected to be under pressure today. Being in the final is success for Galatasaray and they are under no pressure here. That means they will be more open and won't go down easily. They will get at least one set. They won one in the first final series match, had a lead of 24-20 and missed out on 5 set points. They had a good ryhthm in the second set of the last game, before the aforementioned break.
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There are 4 rounds left until the end and there is no room for slips for teams that need points. Neckarsulmer are in a spot that would see them relegated. Looking at their next games, they can expect points here and against Nelligen. That means this game is very important to them. Bad Wildungen have 7 overs in the last 10 games, they like to control the pace. Their opponents were no different. Their today's rival, however, have the second worst offense in Bundesliga, with an average of 23,5 goals and just 3 overs in the last 10 games. The first h2h finished at 25-22 (12-10 HT) for Wildungen. Let's just say that the two h2h matches before that finished as unders (26-23, 30-27). The home team will be without third best scorer Busch (55 goals, 5 in the first h2h), which is another good news for this tip. All of visitors games against teams in the danger zone finished at under 50 goals. When it comes to home team's meetings with the same opponents, they have one over, one under and 23-20 and 31-29 against Nelligen.
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The numbers offered on Leipzig are too high for this game against the defending champions. Thuringer defeated Leipzig twice this season, in September 22-21 in the German Supercup final, and in October 24-23, so Leipzig were limited under 23 goals twice. We are aware of Leipzig's continuing injury problems, early this year 6 of their players were out. Right now, their three experienced back players (Kudlacz-Gloc, Saskia-Lang, Franziska Mietzner) are out while Sturm and Reimer are questionable. In their last game, against Buxtehuder, Leipzig had only 9 players on the roster. Goalkeeper Kramarczyk left the team last month, she is now playing for Leverkusen. In this condition, these 27 goals for Leipzig seem too much, because of the fact that they went over this margin only 3 times in their last 10 games, and because it is know that they recorded wins and points in this period because of great defense and games on less goals.
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Romanian top player Neagu not playing was all over the media while the fact the Spanish have the new coach who has never coached a female team and who has 7 new players gets ignored. Spain's players are 21,5 years on average. They are without Pena, Mangue, Oinedo. Romanians won the SO in 2014 and bronze last season at WC. Those players are on the team now. This is not the first time they play without Neagu. They did the same at the last EC in Sweden and beat Germany 23-22 in the game for spot 5. That game was played by basically all the players who will be here today. Romania finished that in spot 5, Spain in spot 11. Romania won the last h2h in Rio 24-21 (16 goals were scored by players who won't be there on Romania, 9 goals by players who won't be there on the Spanish team). Just two weeks earlier, in July of 2016 in Norway, they played a 21-21 draw. Neagu was not there, but neither were many other young players. The home team will have massive fan support, which will be of great help for Martin's team. He does not like to lose, especially not convincingly.
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This is the last third round of group stage at the Asian championship. Both teams have two convincing defeats after the first two rounds. Who ever wins this will finish in spot three and get int he playoffs for spots 5-8. The most prominent thing about these two teams is their inefficiency. They did play some top level teams but Iran scored 30 goals from 77 shots in the two games (32 against China, 43 against Korea). Also, they scored goals one fastbreak goal and one from a 9-meter distance. Vietnam have almost identical numbers in both games (21 goal from 71 attempts, not one goal from fastbreak, only 4 attempts from 9 meters and no goals). Vietnam have 12 players on the roster, most of whom were born in '95 and '96. With an average of some 74-75 shots, both teams should have very high efficiency (75-80%) in order for this game to go over 50 goals. They didn't meet before but the meetings they had with Hong Kong could be used as relevant here. Vietnam played a 24-24 tie with Hong Kong at Southeast Asia Championship in 2015 in Vietnam. Iran beat Hong Kong 22-14 (12-4) the same year in the race for spots 5-8. The margin is hyped mostly because of Korea and China pace. However, two slow, passive and inefficient teams are to face today. The highest margin should be at 45-46 goal s here.
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Irresponsibility, the lack of want and wish, and coach experimenting with players brought Vardar into a nasty situation: they could lose the first place and complicate things for the Final tournament in Budapest. What was especially disappointing was the game in Metz where Vardar were humiliated. Three days ago there was a change: Davis is back as the assistant coach, while Irina Dibirova, the famous Russian handball player and wife of wing player Timur Dibirov took over. She knows the situation well and has been following it. Even though this is her first experience as a coach, her arrival is tied to the fact that she knows how to get big results, how to affect practice, discipline and game responsibility. As for today's match, I expect the team to react to the disaster in France, and such are the previews coming from the players and coaches. The motive isn't questionable. If Vardar win and Ferencvaros fail in the match against Buducnost (which is not unrealistic), Vardar would climb back to the first place. In the first leg in Nordhausen, in the first half Vardar were leading with seven goals of difference. At half-time it was +5 (18-13). Thuringer have no motive, they're missing certain players, and that goes for goalkeeper Krause. The offered handicap (ht/ft) at these margins is worth the bet.
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If Ferencvaros win today, they will earn the first place in the group, until the finish of the match in the French Metz where Vardar will be rushing after a win against the home team. In case Vardar fail, record a draw or defeat, FTC will definitely take over the first place, and practically have an open road to the final CL tournament. That means there's no room for calculating, since if they get defeated, they would endanger the runner-up position as well. They cam to the German Nordhausen with a series of five tied wins (they have four out of four in the main phase of the CL), they were all with a bigger difference than today's offered handicap. In thelast two matches they crushed Buducnost in Podgorica with +8, and reached a safe win against the French Metz with +6. A month ago they were convincing against today's hosts in Budapest and they won with 32-24 (at certain times FTC has an advantage of +12). We have two more games from the CL last season which ended with the Hungarian teams' wins (32-28, 30-27). FTC demonstrated the great shape they're in in a derby against Gyori (28-28), a team who are one of the biggest favorites for the European champions in this season. Thuringer's chances to pass into the quarter-finals after the defeat in Russia are practically non-existent. They need at least three points in the last two remaining games, today against FTC and in an away game in Skopje, and on the other hand Metz should lose both games. Their edition in Astrakhan and three tied defeats in the CL tell us that they will focus on the German championship later in the season.
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The the 6th placed team and the third-placed team. This is their 4th clash this season, UVC Graz won all of them. Twice in the championship it ended 3-1: 26.10 SG Eisenerz/Trofaiach W - UVC Graz W 1-3(26-24, 23-25, 20-25, 16-25); 10.12 UVC Graz W - SG Eisenerz/Trofaiach W 3-1 (25-22, 25-23, 21-25, 25-19). Their last head-to-head was two weeks ago, in the Austrian Cup final, Graz won 3-0 (21:25, 12:25, 21:25) and won the cup title for the first time. And that is where I see our chance today. Only domestic players can play in the cup, of all 4 teams at the Final Four, UVC were the only ones who had no problems with that limit since their roster is made up of only domestic players. Eisenerz played there without four key players. With complete roster, like they will have today, Eisenerz won a set against Graz in both championship games, and they were close to winning two more. Eisenerz finished regular season with five straight wins, which tells us they are a team in top form. One won set on their account today has a great value, and it is paid in unrealistically high price.
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