Iowa caucus is history in the making

For more than 30 years, ever since Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign, the Iowa caucuses have been producing winners and surprises in nearly equal measures.

It’ll take another 28 days to find out the winners this time.

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But there already are some surprises.

The political sprint over the next four weeks will be shaped by dynamics that many people were not predicting even four weeks ago.

Politico in recent weeks has descended on Iowa, with a reporting team of seven journalists who cumulatively more than a month trying to understand the Iowa ground game the only way possible: on the ground.

The team was led by Roger Simon, who understands the mysteries of the caucuses as well as any political journalist in America.

He was covering the caucuses as far back as 1976, when Carter was unknown nationally and you could count on your hands the number of national reporters who spent time in Iowa.

As for the next Iowa surprise, we are neither so rash nor so foolish to predict winners.

But the reporting did reveal questions that are not obvious amid the daily rush of horse race headlines:

•Is it possible to turn a publicity boom into an organizational triumph in the space of a month?

That’s what Mike Huckabee, the Republican at or near the top of the latest polls, will find out.

Turns out his ground game is virtually nil — 12 field organizers, run by a former editorial writer who acknowledges he likes talking to reporters more than precinct captains.

•What will be the influence of Karl Rove’s ghost?

The mastermind of President Bush’s two presidential victories is on the sidelines this cycle.

But it’s clear that several campaigns in both parties — including Hillary Rodham Clinton’s and Mitt Romney’s, and even Barack Obama’s — are merging technology and mobilization techniques to connect with potential voters and build networks of supporters in ways that were trademarks of the 2004 campaign.

•Is Mormonism a blessing or a burden for Romney?

The former Massachusetts governor’s religion is enough of a concern with some voters that he feels compelled to address it Thursday in a major speech in Texas.

Much less attention has been paid to the fact that Iowa is home to some 22,000 Mormons, a potentially critical bloc in a state where the winner’s margins of victory are often just a few thousand votes.

All these issues are addressed in the pages of this special edition.

Politico spent time reporting on the ground games of all the major campaigns in both parties, and some of the second-tier campaigns.

Be sure to read especially Simon’s in-depth, behind-the-scenes look into the caucus process, which in a year of disarray in the party’s nomination calendar has emerged more influential than ever.

See also the superb analysis by legendary Iowa political writer David Yepsen, who works for our partner paper The Des Moines Register.

Both Yepsen and Simon will be appearing on a Politico-sponsored panel on the state of play of the 2008 race Thursday at noon at The George Washington University.

Also represented will be political reporters from Politico’s other partners in the early states: the New Hampshire Union Leader, The State in South Carolina and the Las Vegas Sun.