Failure for Schulz and the SPDEerie celebrations of a humiliated party

Under Martin Schulz, the Social Democrats have experienced their worst result in Federal German history. The defeated candidate for the chancellorship wants to stay on as party leader, but there is a strong case for a new generation to take over.

The people at Willy Brandt House are no strangers to bitter defeats, disappointing election results, intense humiliations. But this Sunday evening is a harder blow than the SPD has ever had to deal with in the whole of Federal German history. 24 September 2017 will be remembered as a historic debacle for the party.

Their expressions are correspondingly dark and bitter as the greatly reduced red bar flickers across their screens at 6pm. Silence. A few gasps of ‘Oh!’ More, when shortly afterwards the projection for the AfD share of the vote is made known. There aren’t even any whistles. Just utter dismay. Martin Schulz, the SPD candidate for the chancellorship, had mobilised against the AfD again and again. And for what?

By late on Sunday afternoon, the atrium of the SPD’s Berlin headquarters was already a veritable rumour mill. The exit poll figures were doing the rounds. Word quickly got around that disaster loomed for the SPD. People keep saying there can be no question of a grand coalition this time. But will the SPD leader definitively rule it out in his Monday lunchtime meeting? No, he won’t go that far, people are saying: the party has a political duty.

Andrea Nahles is going to become party leader in the Bundestag

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Upstairs, on the fifth floor of the party headquarters, the SPD leadership are holding a Sunday afternoon meeting. Word is, that the possibility of making a new start with a change of personnel has been broached at it. Andrea Nahles, hitherto Minister for Employment, is going to become party leader in the Bundestag, they say. There’s a rumour going round that Manuela Schwesig, state premier of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, is going to be made party leader. No, no! Others are sure that isn’t going to happen: Martin Schulz wants to stay on as party leader, he has the right to do so, and he will!

At 6.30 pm the defeated candidate for the Chancellorship is greeted with cheers and calls of ‘Martin! Martin!’ Staff and supporters fete Schulz as though he had just won an election. The atmosphere is eerie. Several times Schulz tries to speak, but can’t make himself heard above the cheers. His smile looks agonised.

Schwesig, Nahles and General Secretary Hubertus Heil arrange their faces into serious expressions. Malu Dreyer, who is already being touted as a future deputy leader, looks devastated. ‘Whatever you do, don’t let anyone see you grinning,’ the leading comrades seem to be urging themselves. No one must show themselves up on this of all evenings. It is striking, the way the party executive position themselves right at the front, next to Schulz: the normally rather masculine SPD suddenly looks decidedly female.

„A bitter day for social democracy“

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Just as he did after the three state elections earlier this year, Schulz speaks of a ‘difficult and bitter day for social democracy’. He is used to defeats, but it is hard to imagine a worse result than this one. The SPD has failed to achieve its electoral goal, he says. For the first time since January, Martin Schulz speaks in public without mentioning that he wants to become Chancellor. The SPD leader looks out into stony faces. As of today he is the biggest loser in the party’s 154-year history.

That there is considerable discontent with the current leadership is made clear by one Social Democrat who used to work at Willy Brandt House. ‘Renewal! Victory under new leaders!’, it says on a small sign that he holds aloft. ‘No more “Mutti”’, he has written on another, ‘No more grand coalition!’ on a third. But Schultz resists a little. He seems to see the ‘new leaders’ thing quite differently.

First he invokes ‘passion and strength’; then he announces that he wants to stay on as party leader. Neither Nahles nor Schwesig applaud; but Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has concealed himself at the back, just claps all the more loudly.

SPD would instigate a „process of renewal“

Before this, Johannes Kahrs from the conservative Seeheim Circle and Matthias Miersch from the parliamentary Left expressed their support for Schulz as party leader. Thomas Oppermann, until now leader of the parliamentary party, did the same. Shortly after 6 pm he said that Schulz would instigate a ,process of renewal‘: ‘We win together, we lose together.’

Whether Oppermann will remain leader of the parliamentary party, or whether Nahles will replace him, still seems to be an open question on Sunday evening. As of now, the former Minister for Employment seems to be in with a better chance. Schulz makes it clear that he will not be a candidate for this post. Everything else will be discussed in committees. The executive committee, party executive and party managers will be meeting on Monday. At 2 pm Schulz will speak to the press.

Schulz is cheered on Sunday evening when he proclaims, ‘Our collaboration with the Union ends today!’ Nahles, Barley and Schwesig do not applaud, but deputy party leader Ralf Stegner and Michael Groschek, leader of the Westphalian branch of the SPD, do, warmly.

„It’s the CDU’s turn to move“

The Union, FDP and Greens could form a parliamentary majority, Schulz says, and Angela Merkel has expressed this as her preference. He will recommend to the SPD leadership that the party should go into opposition, he announces. The party will analyse the election result ‘openly and honestly’. And that’s it. He leaves the stage.

How definitely the SPD has ruled out a grand coalition – or will do so – will be a regular topic of conversation in the coming days. The result was a ‘rejection of the grand coalition’, says Oppermann. But it will go the way it always goes, prophesies the left-wing SPD politician: the SPD will first rule out a new grand coalition, just as it did in 2013.

So the arguments will drag on until the state election in Lower Saxony. And then? Anything can happen. ‘We have suffered a clear defeat. The Union needs to find a majority now’: so goes the current official version, in this case from the lips of Johannes Kahrs. The Union should form a ‘Jamaica coalition’. On the other hand, Kahrs doesn’t explicitly rule out SPD participation in another grand coalition when he says, ‘It’s not our turn just now. It’s the CDU’s turn to move. They will need to hold talks.’

SPD will need a process of renewal

Large parts of the party, by no means only its left wing, would fight tooth and nail against the idea of paving the way to a third term in the Chancellery for Angela Merkel and the Union. In the base of the party there is a view that even new elections would be preferable to that – even though they know that this scenario could also pose a significant threat to the party.

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Throughout the election campaign, Schulz held open the possibility of a new grand coalition with Angela Merkel, and even a place in her cabinet, something his predecessor, Peer Steinbrück, ruled out in 2013. Two weeks ago, when asked about this, Schulz gave a reply that was preposterous rather than irritable, saying that Merkel could become his vice-chancellor. Schulz was still holding on to his claim to power, albeit at the cost of looking like a political illusionist – which is something he hasn’t ever really been.

One way or another after this debacle, the SPD will need to embark on a process of renewal in both program and structure. It will need to analyse its credibility deficit. It must work out how it came to lose its connection with relevant voter groups. It is questionable whether Schulz is up to the task. After Sunday’s hard blow, party members are saying that self-critical analysis is needed now more than ever. The SPD has difficult days, weeks, months ahead – and, presumably, gruelling years as well.

The Union left the road – and people’s fears – clear for the AfD. Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered heavy losses and now faces her most difficult round of coalition talks yet – with the FDP and the Greens. The Greens, especially, can’t wait.