Figure 8.19: Simulated variability
of annual mean surface air temperatures over the last 40 years, 1959 to 1998 in
sixteen CMIP simulations and in observations (Jones, 1994; Parker et al., 1995).
(a) Global-mean temperature variability; four models show higher than observed
amounts of variability. (b) Mean over-ocean temperature variability; three models
show higher than observed amounts of variability. (c) Mean over-land temperature
variability; four models show less than observed amounts of variability. (d) Ratio
of over-land to over-ocean temperature variability; all models show higher than
observed ratios. Taken from Bell et al. (2000).