November 2012 Housing Data Rodeo

Our old friend the median condo price per square foot continued its
volatile ways, up 7.4% for the month! Though that's after
getting spanked the prior month. That would be the volatility,
which is why I prefer the much more reliable detached home median
price per square foot, which was actually flat for the month.

Here's a look since the March 2009 trough. Note that both
series are now very close to their prior post-crash highs during the
2010 stimulus-fest.

Here's a longer view:

And here's an update of the Case-Shiller proxy, which continues to
rise steadily and is also near its 2010 high:

Inventory declined once again:

The percent of inventory that is "contingent" (usually a short sale
awaiting bank approval) hit an all time high of 45% (that is
contingent accounted for 45% of active + contingent). Every month since June, there have been more contingent condos than active!

Here's a look at just active inventory, i.e., that which is truly
available for sale right now. This has simply plummetted -- it
is down over 60% from 2 years ago:

The months-of-inventory vs. price changes chart continues to show
months of inventory near the lows (highs on the chart), which is
supportive of prices until such time as inventory loosens up or
demand declines.

I don't see anything in sight that can add inventory any time soon. The whole "next wave" of REO foreclosures that was always "just around the corner" was a urban myth that never happened and won't. Most who are going to short sale have already had ample chance to list their property. Normal equity sellers still don't have enough equity en masse to flood the market. And builders haven't built anything for 5 years and can't ramp up very quickly in California to add inventory. It takes a long time to develop & build a subdivision of new homes to sell.

In addition, I think the demand side is going to be very solid in 2013. You have a lot of "boomerang buyers" who had foreclosures and short sales 3+ years ago re-entering the market as buyers adding to demand. Plus all the Wall Street REIT crowd. Plus new household formations.

So where is the inventory going to come from in 2013???? Answer is it isn't. I think we see a healthy price rise again in 2013 with low rates, low inventory and healthy buyer demand. This after a very healthy price rise in 2012. SD median prices will probably have risen 14% at least in 2012 once the final numbers are tallied. They will probably rise that much once again in 2013.

"post-crash highs during the 2010 stimulus-fest". So are buyers being brought forward again, and what happens when this new stim-fest ends? Prices may climb into 2013, but when/if inventory levels and rates revert to norm, prices will decline again (2014/15). Stands to reason, no?

"post-crash highs during the 2010 stimulus-fest". So are buyers being brought forward again, and what happens when this new stim-fest ends? Prices may climb into 2013, but when/if inventory levels and rates revert to norm, prices will decline again (2014/15). Stands to reason, no?

The stimulus he's referring to (I'm pretty sure) isn't Fed-type stimulus, but rather tax-credit type rebates. In '10 you could get 10k in tax credits for certain house purchases. I don't know about other areas, but in Carmel Valley, this pushed up the price of your average $1M home by about 30k or more. After it was over, they went right back down that same 30k. Ridiculous. Anyway, I don't think there are any of those kinds of stimulus right now, and I don't foresee any.

~SD Home Price Snapshot~

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