It isn’t every spring that a team can make an apocalyptic roster mistake and not derail its entire season in the process. That is exactly what the Reds are doing by announcing Aroldis Chapman will close games this season rather than start them.

Aroldis Chapman: With help of Reds instructors like Mario Soto, this fireballing lefty adds pitches to his arsenal. Just what a starter needs. (AP Photo)

One day after the Reds denied that the decision had been made, the team's website reported Friday that Chapman indeed would remain in his ninth-inning role.

"I don't know where that came from," manager Dusty Bakertold The Cincinnati Enquirer on Thursday afternoon. "We didn't say that. There's plenty of speculation every day. We'll let you know soon. Then we can put it to rest and no more talking about it. I'm sure everybody has an opinion one way or the other no matter which way we go. It's a topic of discussion."

That is an understatement.

Although Baker had let it be known he wants Chapman to close, the debate really heated up last weekend when Chapman said he would rather close than start. That is why this decision, which doesn't necessarily make the Reds a better team, smacks of the organization not so much bowing to the manager's wishes, but to the player's.

The Reds signed Chapman to a six-year, $30.25 million contract in 2010. They signed him to eventually start games, not to be a high-priced, one-inning specialist. Chapman conquered the world of closing games, notching 38 saves and striking out 15.3 hitters per nine innings last season. He also harnessed his control and began to develop secondary pitches to accompany his triple-digit fastball.

So if now isn't the time to transition the lefthander into the rotation, then when is? That is a question the Reds can't answer, given how long they dragged their feet in making the call. If the higher-ups believed Chapman closing was the best decision for the team's goal of a World Series championship, that decision would have been made long before Friday.

Instead, we got this Thursday:

"I don't know why you keep asking," general manager Walt Jocketty told The Enquirer. "We'll announce it when we have something."

Jocketty, you see, is in the camp that wants Chapman to take the ball every fifth day and accumulate something in the vicinity of 150 innings this season. So is pitching coach Bryan Price. They know that is the right choice because a good middle-of-the-rotation starter — most believe that is what Chapman would be in a worst-case scenario — is more valuable than a dominant closer.

The ZiPS projections show Chapman throwing almost 144 innings with a 3.63 ERA and a WAR around 3.0. That isn't an ace, but it's a pretty good No. 3 option. That projection is far better than the one for Mike Leake (166 2/3 innings, 4.59 ERA, 1.3 WAR), who will replace Chapman in the rotation after the Reds gave the pitcher and manager what they desired. And if Leake isn't as good as that projection, the Reds will be a worse club with Chapman in the bullpen.

Add that to the fact that closers are highly overrated, especially by managers who believe they "need" their liveliest arm in the ninth inning. This is the thinking even though the ninth inning usually isn't the highest-leverage inning in a close game. Those situations usually come in the seventh or eighth innings with men on base and when strikeouts are most valuable.

As a closer, Chapman usually makes hitters whiff with nobody on base. That isn't to say his strikeout numbers are any less stunning in the ninth, just less valuable.

Baker believes his team is better with Chapman closing, but that isn't the case. Having someone like Leake as a sixth starter is a luxury, and having Jonathan Broxton anchor a deep bullpen is a steady option.

Plus, the Reds, a small-to-mid-market franchise, aren't paying Broxton $21 million over three years to set up. They agreed to that deal because they believed Chapman would be in the rotation.

Cincinnati is equipped to handle losing Chapman from the bullpen and has the starting pitching depth to absorb his loss from the rotation if he doesn't work out there. That would mean nothing more than returning Chapman to the back of the bullpen. And that is the worst-case scenario, which isn't so bad.

If the starting experiment proved successful, the Reds would have a guy with the potential to lead their rotation in two or three seasons. Management knows this, and it is thinking long-term with Chapman.

Meanwhile, Baker is looking out for his own behind in 2013, a season in which the Reds are expected to be World Series contenders. Chapman merely is looking out for his own comfort, knowing he is effective as a closer but unsure he would succeed in a more vital role.

With Chapman, long term is the way to go even if he isn't committed to transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. The Reds have Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos under contract for at least the next few years. With the exception of Phillips, all are younger than 30. Plus, top prospect Billy Hamilton could be an everyday major leaguer as soon as next season.

Now is the time to discover whether Chapman has what it takes to be a front-line starter, for the sake of the team's investment in him and for its future. But the Reds clearly aren't thinking long-term.