If we can assume that the Pats always improve from previous game in recent series (Jaguars, Titans, Jets), then only a modest improvement is needed to beat the Chargers. Most computer models out there give only very small edge to the SD. Some predict Pats' win. If we can factor in Brady's past legendary playoff performance, it'll really tip the scale to the Pats.

I personally think it'll be about the age, fitness, body clock, aches, and pains in the 4th Q that'll determine the game. Will Bruschi's swollen arm, Vabrel's back, or Seymour's elbow, Wilfork's ankle ... be too much for them by that time? They'll need one last stop of the SD who may driving for the tying or winning TD. (and SD is good at that).

Actually, earlier in the week Salisbury had picked the Chargers (said he'd go with his heart over his head), but it appears he's changed his mind. In any case, I'm not surprised at all that the favorite is the common choice.

Wow. Look at all those Pats haters across the ESPN picks grid. Amazing. Only Sasisbury is in our corner.

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actaully...bill simmons has us too lol

"Patriots (+5) over CHARGERS I know how it looks on paper. I know the Pats have to play perfectly to win. I know they can't turn the ball over. I know they have to knock Tomlinson around like they did Marshall Faulk in Super Bowl XXXVI. I know they can't give up any long plays to Antonio Gates. I know they can't screw up on special teams. I know they have to run the ball, keep running the ball and keep San Diego off the field. I know that it's intimidating to face a San Diego defense with two known steroid guys on it -- after all, people who use steroids are prone to violent acts of rage.

But I also know these four things:

A. Two Januarys ago in this space, not only did I vow never to pick Marty Schottenheimer in another playoff game but I gave you permission to slice my Achilles tendons if it happened.

B. Marty's playoff record is 5-12; Philip Rivers' playoff record is 0-0.

C. The playoff record for Belichick and Brady as a team: 11-1.

D. Not only are the Pats getting five points but they're nearly 2-to-1 underdogs. If I took you to a boxing match where an 11-1 heavyweight was fighting a 5-12 heavyweight, then suggested "Let's wager on this -- you take the 5-12 heavyweight, I'll take the 11-1 guy, and you give me 2-to-1 odds," is there any way you would take that wager?

Didn't think so. Maybe the Patriots can't win in Baltimore (we'll get to that next week), but they can absolutely win in San Diego. And they will.

No need to be a rocket scientist in the first round. My dog could have gone 4 for 4...

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Last week all the home teams won (unlike the previous two years in wild card round when they went 1-3 each year) and this is the week when the visiting teams win. I expect at least two and maybe three visitors to win
( hopefully one of them is NE ) but if I were a betting man, I'd take NE,Philly and maybe Indy to win on the road.

"Patriots (+5) over CHARGERS I know how it looks on paper. I know the Pats have to play perfectly to win. I know they can't turn the ball over. I know they have to knock Tomlinson around like they did Marshall Faulk in Super Bowl XXXVI. I know they can't give up any long plays to Antonio Gates. I know they can't screw up on special teams. I know they have to run the ball, keep running the ball and keep San Diego off the field. I know that it's intimidating to face a San Diego defense with two known steroid guys on it -- after all, people who use steroids are prone to violent acts of rage.

But I also know these four things:

A. Two Januarys ago in this space, not only did I vow never to pick Marty Schottenheimer in another playoff game but I gave you permission to slice my Achilles tendons if it happened.

B. Marty's playoff record is 5-12; Philip Rivers' playoff record is 0-0.

C. The playoff record for Belichick and Brady as a team: 11-1.

D. Not only are the Pats getting five points but they're nearly 2-to-1 underdogs. If I took you to a boxing match where an 11-1 heavyweight was fighting a 5-12 heavyweight, then suggested "Let's wager on this -- you take the 5-12 heavyweight, I'll take the 11-1 guy, and you give me 2-to-1 odds," is there any way you would take that wager?

Didn't think so. Maybe the Patriots can't win in Baltimore (we'll get to that next week), but they can absolutely win in San Diego. And they will.

"I know the Pats have to play perfectly to win." sums this game up very well. They are capable, but it's hard to play a perfect game.

Bill is a well-known chowderhead. He's picking with his heart. They don't call him "The Boston Sports Guy" for nothing.

If I were a betting man I might take the points too even as a Chargers fan. 5 points is a lot to give up when two teams this good are playing. Thankfully odds and pointspreads don't play any part in who wins the actual game.