11 Aug 2016

Don't be fooled by 5G

Echoing the theme of an article I read yesterday, about the
FCC’s intentional – or at best negligent – duopoly in
wired broadband, is this article about the current “5G”
hype, and how it seems to be assisting the big telcos in disguising
their under-investment in FTTH / FTTP in favor of more-profitable
wireless services:

Cynics might point out that by waving their hands around about the
coming miracle of 5G — even though its arrival is really a long way
off — carriers are directing attention away from the terrible state
of fiber last-mile infrastructure in the US. Call me one of those
cynics. This kind of misleading tactic isn’t difficult to pull off
in the U.S. […] A leading tech VC in New York, someone who is
viewed as a thought leader, said to me not long ago, “Why do you
keep talking about fiber? Everything’s going wireless.”

This is eerily similar to claims used by the telco and cablecos to
justify diminished regulation, by pointing to BPL. The major
justification for eliminating ‘unbundling’ regulation, and for not
applying it to cable lines at all, was because consumers were going to
be able to obtain Internet service over a variety of last-mile
circuits, including cable lines, telephone lines, fiber, and power
wiring. This, of course, was horseshit – BPL was always a terrible
idea – but it was just plausible-enough to keep the regulators
at bay while the market condensed into a duopoly.

Given that the telecommunications companies want nothing other than to
extract maximum economic rents from consumers for as long as they can,
while investing as little as they possibly can for the privilege –
this is how corporations work, of course, so we shouldn’t be
especially surprised – we should treat the 5G hype with suspicion.

No currently-foreseeable wireless technology is going to reduce the
need for high-bandwidth (read: fiber-optic) backhaul; 5G as envisioned
by most rational people would, in fact, vastly increase the demand
for backhaul and the need for FTTH/FTTP. Be on guard for anyone who
suggests that 5G will make investments in fiber projects – especially
muni fiber – unnecessary, as they are almost certainly trying to sell
you something, and probably nothing you want to buy.