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As
the World Championship of Fantasy Football approaches, I thought I would
take a look at the past few years and see some of the gaps at certain
position. Every year the playing field changes. What works for one year
might not work for the next. If you are caught playing the strategy that
won last year, you might be in for a long year if your players don’t
live up to your expectations. There are many ways to win in fantasy
football. The key is finding a plan that will be consistent over time.
Some players always wait on a QB. Others love running backs. And there a
few who think wide receivers are the way to go. I personally think the
inventory changes every year and a fantasy player should always be
looking for players who give them an edge at a position.

Before I look at
some of the past season, I wanted to think about how many points I need
to score each week to have a chance at winning $300,000. As each year is
different, I think 150+ points per week is the desired number heading
into each season. Some years you might only need 145 points a week to
make into the championship game, but I’d rather aim high.

Last year there
wasn’t a huge edge at QB, but there was enough of an edge to warrant
owning a Drew Brees type player.There were only five QB’s that averaged over 20 points per game
for a full season-Brees 23.27, Rodgers 21.85, Cutler 21.52, Phillip
Rivers 21.12, and Kurt Warner 20.93. I think last year was a good season
to wait on a QB. Brady was a bust. Manning was just average for a 12
team league and Romo missed three games.

In 2007, Tom Brady
had nearly a 6 point gap on Tony Romo who was the second highest scoring
QB. A Brady owner had a ten point edge on one third of the league. A
team with a weak QB needed to beat a Brady team in three roster slot to
overcome the loss at QB. This kind of edge doesn’t happen often, but I
believe it is the best edge to have. The only other year that compared
to Brady’s season was 2004 when Daunte Culpepper (27.47) and Peyton
Manning (26.10) had a 6 to 7 point edge over most of the field at QB. In
2005, the difference from top QB to the 12th was less than 4 points. I
think 2002 and 2003 were similar to 2005. The RT Sports site is only
going back as far 2004 this year.

Going into the
draft, I’m looking for a QB who can score 20 points per game. I don’t
like flip flopping QB’s every week. So I tend to search for a
quarterback and stick with him. If he has a bad year, chances are I
didn’t switch quick enough to save my season.If I think a QB has a chance to throw 30+ TD’s and 4500+ yards, I
will take him early.

So the first piece
to the 150 point puzzle is finding a top QB who can average 20 points
per week.

The running back
position has lost its luster the last couple of years. Last year only
two running backs scored over 300 points for the season (Matt Forte and
DeAngelo Williams). In 2007, Tomlinson and Westbrook had huge edges as
they both averaged about 23 points per game.Prior to 2007, it was common to see 6 to 8 running backs score
over 300 points for the season. The special backs would approach 375
points for the season.It’s hard to imagine that Tomlinson scored 480+ points for the
2006 season. I think this year is the first year in the high stakes
arena where wide receivers are getting as much respect as running backs.
Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, and MJD all look like special players, but
will any of them score 350+ points this season? I could see this year
being the return of the running back. I think there are 6 maybe 7 backs
that could score 300+ points this season if they stay healthy.

The next piece to
the puzzle is finding a top running back that can approach 300 points
for the season (about 1800 yards, 50 passes, and 12 TD’s). After that,
you need to add a second back that can score 15+ points per week or 1500
yards, 30 passes, and 10 TD’s. The goal for RB1 and RB2 is 33 points per
week.

This year wide
receivers are becoming more fashionable. Maybe the rest of the fantasy
world is catching up to the trend of declining running backs. Either way
an up year at quarterback position will mean an up year for the wide
receivers. Every year there will be some wide receivers that have break
out years. The running back guys will be searching for those players.
Last year there were 10 receivers who scored over 250 points for the
season and only 2 that scored over 300 points. Is it perception that
receivers are more valuable or is it reality? In 2007, there were 10
that scored 280+ points and 6 that scored 300 points for the season (TJ
Houshmandzadeh 299.70 was 6th). So last year the top 10
receiver actually declined, but they are getting drafted higher this
year. It seems like most years that there are about 10 receivers who
score 250+ points for the season and a couple score over 300. The 2004
season was the most interesting. It had 13 over 250, but the top 3 were
Mushin Muhammad, Joe Horn, and Javon Walker.

The ideal situation
for me would be one top wide out who could score about 17-18 points per
game (90+ catches, 1300+ yards, and double digit TD’s). The second wide
receiver would be in the 15-16 point range and the third would be about
14 points per game. If I could average over 45 points per week, I would
have a solid receiving core.

After the QB, RB’s
and WR’s, I’d hope I can score close to a 100 points per week. In order
to be an elite team, I’ll need a strong flex player. I’m hoping for
close to 15 points per game at the flex position.

I think the most
frustrating position might be the tight end. Each year there seems like
there are one or two tight ends that have great season and give their
teams a big edge at that position. I think the tight end is a position
you don’t want to get beat at. I think you need a consistent 10 points
per week out of the position. In most seasons there are 6 to 8 that
score 10 points per week. In 2006, there were 4 TE’s that score 14+
points per week. If you are weak at TE, it will most likely lead to
losses with inconsistent scoring.

The last two
positions are kicker and defense. These are two positions that are
important. A solid kicker and defense can put you in position to win
your league. In the WCOFF, a top defense will typically average 10 to 12
points per week. If you own a top defense, you might only have a small
edge per week. In this game, you want every edge you can find. Last year
no defense averaged over 10 points per week. I think you need 9 to 10
points per week from your defense. It sound easy, but it can be
challenging if you get a few zeros and you start flip flopping defenses
every other week.

Most seasons the top
kickers will score less points that a top defense. It seems like each
season only one kicker will average more than 10 points per week. Most
kickers will score between 8 and 10 points per week. Between the kicker
and defense, I think you need to score close to 20 points per week. It
seems like an easy number to hit, but a bad defense or bad kicker can
cost you a league title.

Even as I lay out a
plan to score 150 points per week, I can see how hard it is to make that
number. I think you need to hit on almost all of your first 8 picks and
have enough depth to cover your bye weeks.

As I start planning
for this season, I’ll try to find where I can get an edge at certain
positions. The more edges I can find, the better chances I can have
success.