"Dedicated To Understanding New England's Climate!"
The purpose of this site is to educate and inform the public of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); by examining current trends & indice forecasts that will impact the New England NE Region. We will also focus on the parent-steering mechanism known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO); and other teleconnection indices.

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

WINTER SEASON 2015/16 - ENTERING SOLAR MINIMUM

The emerging sleep of-the-Sun, with only three (3) identified sunspots visible on the solar disk as of November 25, 2015.

Originally prepared: November 23, 2015 (Facebook timeline-post)

I would like to talk about El Niño, that has made significant headlines in the media. El Niño"The Boy",which is an unusual warming of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, is NOT basin wide through the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact close observation shows there is NO comparison to the 1997/98 super El Niño, as this particular event is *Central-to-West-based and NOT basin wide or East-based. This means the warming of SST anomalies over the Pacific is concentrated from the International Dateline, points east to the *Central / North American continent.

A *Central-to-West-based El Niño will in-fact encourage an energized sub-tropical jet-stream but ridging (above normal heights) over western North America due to the area of above normal SST's concentrated through the eastern Pacific, that will tend to encourage troughing (below normal heights) over eastern North America.

What is the foundation of the 2015/16 Winter season?

1.Solar Minimum / High Latitude Blocking - it's very important to consider that we are now entering a solar minimum following the 9-11 year sunspot cycle. The Sun has been averaging 20 daily events or less (in-terms of sunspot activity on the solar disk) since November 7, 2014, and is currently at 15 daily events as of November 20, 2015. Through the majority of absent New England Winter's of the 1990's, the Sun was averaging 40-100 daily events, * sending a moderate to high frequency of ultraviolet (UV) rays at-the-Earth. The higher frequency of ultraviolet (UV) rays acts to deplete ozone and in-return allows for pronounced cooling of the pole's stratosphere, with the Polar Vortex (PV) almost never splitting to influence middle latitudes of-the-Earth. Strongly taking into consideration current solar activity, lends hand to the highly cyclical 9-11 year (Schwabe) sunspot cycle, that we are indeed entering a solar minimum. The emerging sleep of-the-Sun will soon encourage pronounced warming of the pole's stratosphere due to increased ozone, * as this warming pushes down through the * stratosphere and troposphere, the PV will in-turn react and SPLIT, the pole will moderate. As the split PV drops south in-latitude, a reaction-to-action, ejecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) / North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)into a pronounced negative phase. This will be the said driver of the 500-millibar Height Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere during the coming 2015/16 Winter season, NOT El Niño.

2. El Niño - the above said factors will tend to encourage an unusually stronger than normal or *enhanced* sub-tropical jet-stream, that will as-a-result of location, be a high moisture source to interact with the Polar jet-stream. This will be, an enhancer, encouraging a moderate to strong probability of Nor'easters.

When will this change influence New England?

While we have experienced a gradual step-down since mid November, there are key signals that will indicate CHANGE. A strong low pressure system tracking through the eastern Great Lakes region, producing rainfall in New England, around the week of November 29th may be the mechanism that encourages a significant pattern change. Therefore, December 5-12th is the time period of high volatility.

* Corrected information on sudden stratospheric warming & the current state of El Niño.

New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

New England NAO

As this Blog continues to grow it will be a learning experience for me, and a possible valuable source of information to the overall general public in New England. Posts prepared by me are region specific, pretaining to upcoming meteorological changes in New England. Other posts are general weather related content and from various authors.

Special thanks to John Hockridge of

New England Weather Associates &

George Trottier formerly of WMNB-WNAW

N. Adams, MA., for help making this site possible.

I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to Todd Gross of www.toddgross.com(former Chief Meteorologist of WHDH - Channel 7 Boston), for including me in his "Weather Spotter Network" - which served as a foundation for this site.

New England NAO - is dedicated in loving memory of my cousin... Peter Rowley, who recognized my true purpose in-life and was taken from us so soon.

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