Some good news about our changing climate. Enjoy it, for it might not last long.

Summary: A people can be shaped by controlling their information, altering their perception of the world by filtering what they learn. We see that today in the debate about one of the potentially largest challenges of the 21st century. Climate scientists differ on their forecasts of future weather, which range from large to calamitous changes. Some activists find these inadequate, and resort to exaggerated claims about extreme weather today — and suppression of the good news. Today we look at the good news you might know. All these trends will change (that’s what climate does). But before we look ahead, let’s clearly see the world of today.

We don’t know what lies ahead

Contents

Few hurricanes, weak hurricanes

It’s a slow year for wildfires (again)

Another slow year for tornadoes

Arctic sea ice rebounds

The pause continues

About trends in extreme weather

For More Information

Click on the graphs to enlarge them.

(1) Few hurricanes, weak hurricanes

The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has arrived and for the first time since 1992 there isn’t a named storm in the basin. … In records going back to 1851, Sept. 10 is the day when the odds are greatest there will be at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic.

… There have been times when quiet years have shown up in the midst of active eras, Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecast, said from Walnut Creek, California. Last year produced 13 named storms, one more than the 30-year average, yet the power of those systems was so weak it is considered a relatively quiet season.

Using an index called the accumulated cyclone energy, 2014 has only had 45% of the activity that it should have produced by this time, Klotzbach said. “But we are still ahead of the ridiculously quiet season of 2013,” he said. “I would say that we need at least one more quiet year to really be convinced that we are heading into an inactive era.”

The last major landfall on the US was Wilma in October 2005; cyclone activity is also low in Australia. Global tropical cyclone energy has fallen from its peaks of 1994 – 2006, per this graph from WeatherBell.

The potential intensity of tropical cyclones has not increased in recent decades, contrary to expectations in a warming world. James Kossin of the US National Climatic Data Center in North Carolina assessed past storm intensity by analysing 30 years of cloud-top temperature data from satellite imagery of tropical cyclones.

(2) It’s a slow year for wildfires (again)

Second lowest number of wildfires YTD in the past 11 years (2013 was the lowest); second-lowest total acres burned YTD (2010 was smallest). From the National Interagency Fire Center.

National Interagency Fire Center

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(3) Another slow year for tornadoes

(4) Arctic sea ice rebounds

Today’s arctic sea ice area is the 3rd largest of the past ten years (the years with the smallest ice area minimums on the satellite record, starting in 1979). Less than 2005 – 2006; tied with 2009 and 2013. The extreme low was in 2012 (prompting fears of the “death spiral”). Perhaps the melting trend will resume, driven by a combination of warming, soot deposits, and wind patterns. But so far the dire forecasts of Al Gore and other activists have been proven wrong.

(5) The pause continues

The pause in the surface and lower atmosphere temperature is roughly 15 years old, visible in all the major global temperature datasets. This graph shows the lower troposphere temperature as calculated for NASA by a team at U of AL at Huntsville. See their August 2014 report. Source of the graph here.

6 thoughts on “Some good news about our changing climate. Enjoy it, for it might not last long.”

Hmm, this makes me curious about how big of a role tropical cyclones play in transferring heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. It’s commonly proposed that the lack of atmospheric temperature increase during the pause is due to the oceans absorbing more heat; it seems reasonable that a reduction in cyclone activity would fit within those observations.

Whether there is any causation at play, and in which direction it flows, is very interesting.