The Warriors Are Great, But Are They Better Than The 1939 Yankees?

By now, it’s become clear that despite falling short of a perfect 16-0 playoff record, the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors make a very strong case for being the greatest NBA team in history. On Tuesday, I wrote about the statistical ratings that do — and don’t — place them ahead of the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls as the best ever. Firmly in Golden State’s camp is FiveThirtyEight’s Elo system, which ranks the team as No. 1 all time not only according to its peak rating, but also using a blend of its peak, final and average daily Elo ratings during the season.

That’s just relative to other basketball teams, though. What happens when we open up this conversation to other sports? Since we also have Elo ratings for NFL and MLB teams, we thought we’d compare the Warriors’ 1828 blended Elo rating to the same blended metric in football and baseball.1 Are the Warriors the best … of the best?

As luck would have it, football Elo ratings are almost directly comparable to those in basketball because the amount of information conveyed by one NFL game is roughly the same as that conveyed by one NBA game.2 But in baseball, each game tells us less about a team’s true talent, so the range between the highest and lowest MLB Elo ratings is smaller. So, to account for these differences across sports, I calculated the z-score (the number of standard deviations above average3) for each team’s blended rating relative to their sport.

According to this metric, the Warriors are running slightly behind the NFL-best 2007 New England Patriots — and neither has anything on Joe DiMaggio and the 1939 New York Yankees, who compiled 106 wins and swept the Cincinnati Reds in the World Series.

YEAR

TEAM

LEAGUE

TITLE

BLENDED ELO

Z-SCORE

1

1939

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1627

+3.07

2

1906

Chicago Cubs

MLB

1620

+2.88

3

2007

New England Patriots

NFL

1825

+2.82

4

2017

Golden State Warriors

NBA

✓

1828

+2.79

5

1996

Chicago Bulls

NBA

✓

1815

+2.68

6

1998

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1610

+2.63

7

1927

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1610

+2.63

8

1944

St. Louis Cardinals

MLB

✓

1610

+2.61

9

1909

Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB

✓

1609

+2.59

10

1932

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1608

+2.56

11

1997

Chicago Bulls

NBA

✓

1801

+2.56

12

1942

St. Louis Cardinals

MLB

✓

1607

+2.54

13

1911

Philadelphia Athletics

MLB

✓

1607

+2.54

14

2004

New England Patriots

NFL

✓

1793

+2.53

15

2016

Golden State Warriors

NBA

1798

+2.53

16

1937

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1606

+2.52

17

2015

Golden State Warriors

NBA

✓

1796

+2.52

18

1907

Chicago Cubs

MLB

✓

1605

+2.48

19

1942

Chicago Bears

NFL

1786

+2.47

20

1938

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1603

+2.43

Best of the best: The top Elo ratings in NBA, NFL and MLB

NBA data includes BAA (but not ABA) teams going back to the 1946-47 season. NFL data includes AFL (during Super Bowl era) and APFA teams going back to 1920, minimum 5 games played during season. MLB data goes back to first World Series in 1903.

Source: Sports-Reference.com

MLB teams dominate the top-20 list, taking up 12 spots — mainly because baseball has been around for a lot longer than the other sports. To even the playing field, we can cut down the list to only look at modern (since 1980) teams:

YEAR

TEAM

LEAGUE

TITLE

BLENDED ELO

Z-SCORE

1

2007

New England Patriots

NFL

1825

+2.82

2

2017

Golden State Warriors

NBA

✓

1828

+2.79

3

1996

Chicago Bulls

NBA

✓

1815

+2.68

4

1998

New York Yankees

MLB

✓

1610

+2.63

5

1997

Chicago Bulls

NBA

✓

1801

+2.56

6

2004

New England Patriots

NFL

✓

1793

+2.53

7

2016

Golden State Warriors

NBA

1798

+2.53

8

2015

Golden State Warriors

NBA

✓

1796

+2.52

9

1986

Boston Celtics

NBA

✓

1784

+2.41

10

1998

Denver Broncos

NFL

✓

1771

+2.34

11

1989

San Francisco 49ers

NFL

✓

1771

+2.33

12

2016

San Antonio Spurs

NBA

1776

+2.33

13

1985

Chicago Bears

NFL

✓

1769

+2.31

14

1993

Dallas Cowboys

NFL

✓

1766

+2.29

15

2009

Los Angeles Lakers

NBA

✓

1769

+2.27

16

1992

Chicago Bulls

NBA

✓

1768

+2.26

17

1983

Washington Redskins

NFL

1763

+2.26

18

1984

San Francisco 49ers

NFL

✓

1761

+2.25

19

1998

Chicago Bulls

NBA

✓

1764

+2.23

20

1997

Green Bay Packers

NFL

1759

+2.22

The top Elo ratings in NBA, NFL and MLB since 1980

Source: Sports-Reference.com

The Warriors’ Game 4 loss in Cleveland was most likely the difference-maker in keeping them behind the 2007 Patriots as the best team in recent decades. Those Patriots obliterated the NFL, compiling a perfect regular season and scoring a staggering 75 touchdowns. (They then promptly lost the Super Bowl to the New York Giants, the 692nd best team since 1980. Go figure.)