Ironically, Han actually ran for KMT party chair as a long-shot candidate in 2017, suggesting that he may have always had high ambitions within the party. Otherwise, Han’s unsuccessful run may have simply been aimed at boosting his political standing within the party, perhaps hoping to replicate the model of Hung Hsiu-chu, a previously obscure politician that became a superstar overnight by refusing to stand down in the KMT presidential primaries and unexpectedly winning the primaries. Being allowed to run as the KMT’s Kaohsiung mayoral candidate in a race that he was originally viewed as unlikely to win was likely something that only took place because of Han’s previously running for KMT chair.

As KMT chairs serve four-year terms, current chair Wu Den-yih, who was elected in 2017, is to serve until 2021. Wu could potentially run for reelection. However, Wu has not proved a particularly strong leader for the KMT with any innovative guiding vision, and the possibility of Wu being replaced by a Han proxy or another KMT politician is high.

The pan-Blue camp could become split, however, if Terry Gou were to use his considerable wealth to finance an independent run. It is speculated that Gou could potentially align with Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je for a joint ticket, an idea that Ko seems open to so far, at least in public comments. Former KMT legislative speaker Wang Jinpyng or PFP chair James Soong have also been touted as potential running mates for Ko. Ko seems set to run after announcing the formation of the Taiwanese People’s Party (台灣民眾黨) earlier today, with speculation that he will team up with Gou.

Han has, if anything, proved to be an unpredictable candidate, one prone to frequent gaffes and controversies, raising the possibility that his popularity could see a sudden downturn at any time. Although Han continues to be highly popular among older demographics, support for Han by younger voters has noticeably declined in the last half-year.

It is not impossible that if Han runs aground as a candidate, he could be replaced by someone else, likely Terry Gou if Gou does not decide to first run as an independent. And if Han were to refuse to withdraw as the KMT’s presidential candidate, this could lead to further splits within the KMT.

As such, internal fractures in the KMT do not seem to have been healed with Han named the KMT’s presidential candidate in the wake the party’s presidential primaries. The possibility that such fractures will, in fact, continue to grow is quite large.

Brian Hioe was one of the founding editors of New Bloom. He is a freelance writer on social movements and politics, and occasional translator. A New York native and Taiwanese-American, he has an MA in East Asian Languages and Cultures from Columbia University and graduated from New York University with majors in History, East Asian Studies, and English Literature. He was Democracy and Human Rights Service Fellow at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy from 2017 to 2018.

About New Bloom

New Bloom is an online magazine covering activism and youth politics in Taiwan and the Asia Pacific, founded in Taiwan in 2014 in the wake of the Sunflower Movement. We seek to put local voices in touch with international discourse, beginning with Taiwan.