Poll predicts immigration plan doom

Seven in 10 Americans don’t think Congress will be able to pass comprehensive immigration reform, although Democrats and Hispanics are slightly more confident, according to a poll released Friday.

Only 24 percent of registered voters think a comprehensive immigration law will be signed this year, according to the Quinnipiac University poll, with 71 percent expecting negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to fail. The full Senate is set to start considering the bipartisan Gang of Eight legislation next month. If legislation survives that test, the challenge will shift to the House, dominated by Republicans who are skeptical of key elements of the deal, including a pathway to citizenship.

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The strongest backers of a pathway to citizenship — Democrats, black voters and Hispanics — are marginally more optimistic. A full third of Democrats think a law will pass, as do 35 percent of Hispanics and 39 percent of black voters.

Overall, support for a pathway to citizenship is at 54 percent, virtually unchanged from a Quinnipiac poll in April.

The poll also found former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 48 percent to 40 percent, in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. Clinton also bests Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 49 percent to 41 percent. Vice President Joe Biden loses to both men, 44 percent to 38 percent to Bush and 43 percent to 39 percent to Paul.

The survey of 1,419 registered voters was conducted from May 22 to May 28. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.