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Thursday, November 21, 2013

Cold, wind and rain for 22nd in Dallas

I'm kind of glad. I hope it's the coldest, most wet, rainy, freezing rain, miserable Nov 22nd anyone can remember. Meanwhile, all the people kept out of the plaza by this Mayor Rawlings and Co can sit inside and watch it all on TV, enjoying warm food and drinks, and the pleasure of good company, while we laugh and laugh and laugh at them. I hope these 50th people, the Dallas power elite who want to own Dealey Plaza this day get the flu. Instant Kharma do your stuff.

From the great Tom Blackwell

Dallas weather update:

> Good afternoon, Big weather changes are on the way for North and> Central Texas over the next several days. An arctic cold front is> moving quickly through the Texas Panhandle at this time and will> sweep across the region this evening and tonight. This frontal timing> is significantly faster than previously thought, and this is one of> the biggest changes to the forecast. We still expect freezing rain to> occur over the northwestern and western counties Friday, but with the> earlier frontal arrival, the freezing rain will begin in our> northwestern counties as early as tonight; possibly before daybreak.> After the light freezing rain Friday and Friday night, the other> change is sleet will now occur as early as Saturday night through> early Monday morning. The greatest potential for accumulating frozen> precipitation (sleet) is still on Sunday and much of North and> Central Texas could be affected by this round of winter weather. A> set of images has been included to graphically depict the areas and> timing.> > BOTTOM LINE> > Winter precipitation is possible over portions of North Texas early> Friday morning through Monday, causing some impacts to roads,> particularly west of Interstate 35/35W.> > An arctic cold front will sweep across the region this evening and> tonight. Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front; as much as> a 20 degree drop is possible within the first 30-60 mins behind the> frontal passage. Strong north winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts> will occur behind the front. By daybreak, temperatures across the> region will vary from near 30 degrees in the northwest to the upper> 40s in the southeast; however, wind chill readings will be in the> teens to lower 30s. Much of the region will remain in the 30s> throughout the day on Friday. The cold airmass will remain in place> throughout the weekend and early next week.> > As the cold front moves through the region, a line of showers and> storms will develop along the front. A few of the storms could be> strong to marginally severe producing hail and gusty winds.> Otherwise, a chilly rain is expected in many areas of North and> Central Texas on Friday and Friday night.> > In areas northwest of a Gainesville to Mineral Wells to Comanche> line, light freezing rain is possible on Friday. The rain could turn> to freezing rain as early as 4 am tonight northwest of a Bowie to> Stephenville line. On Friday night and Saturday morning, light> freezing rain will be possible west of a line from Sherman to> Weatherford to Lometa line. Due to warm ground temperatures, most of> this ice should be confined to elevated surfaces, limiting widespread> impacts on roads.> > Another round of precipitation is expected area-wide Saturday night> into early Monday. This precipitation is likely to fall as sleet or a> rain/sleet mix. Significant sleet accumulation may occur, mainly on> bridges, overpasses, and a few secondary roads with the most likely> locations to receive accumulating sleet along and west of a line from> Comanche to Weatherford to Gainesville. Some rain mixed with sleet> will likely also fall farther east to a Killeen-Corsicana-Canton line> Sunday night, perhaps producing slick spots on elevated surfaces.> > > As is usually the case, there is still considerable uncertainty> regarding the exact evolution of the temperature profiles across our> area this weekend. This affects the degree of confidence we have in> this winter weather scenario.> > Emergency Management, elected officials, school safety officials,> storm spotters, transportation, or anyone responsible for public> safety should closely monitor the weather for the Friday through> Monday time period. Be prepared to activate your winter weather> plans.> > SPECIFIC FORECAST FOR JFK 50TH ANNIVERSARY CEREMONIES IN DOWNTOWN> DALLAS ON FRIDAY> > 8 am conditions: Cloudy and windy, 70% chance of rain, temperature:> 37, north wind 20-25 mph, wind chill ~ 26 degrees> > 10 am conditions: Cloudy and windy, 70% chance of rain, temperature:> 37, north wind 20-25 mph, wind chill ~ 26 degrees> > 12 pm conditions: Cloudy and windy, 60% chance of rain, temperature:> 37, north wind 15-20 mph, wind chill ~ 27 degrees> > 2 pm conditions: Cloudy and windy, 60% chance of rain, temperature:> 37, north wind 15-20 mph, wind chill ~ 27 degrees> > 4 pm conditions: Cloudy and windy, 60% chance of rain, temperature:> 37, north wind 15-20 mph, wind chill ~ 27 degrees> > Potential rainfall amounts 8 am - Noon Friday in Dallas: 0.05" -> 0.10"> > Potential rainfall amounts Noon - 4 pm Friday in Dallas: 0.05" -> 0.10"> > Total potential rainfall amounts during daytime hours Friday in> Dallas: 0.10" - 0.20"> > > > AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION> > See the attached graphics for a better depiction of the area of the> expected hazards> > Rainfall Tonight through Saturday Morning: Everywhere in North and> Central Texas> > Freezing Rain Before Daybreak Friday: Mainly north and west of a line> from Bowie to Stephenville> > Freezing Rain Friday: Mainly north and west of a line from> Gainesville to Mineral Wells to Comanche> > Freezing Rain Friday Night and Saturday Morning: Mainly north and> west of a line from Sherman to Weatherford to Lometa> > Rainfall Saturday through Monday: Everywhere in North and Central> Texas> > Sleet Saturday Night through Monday Morning: Greatest threat (with> minor to significant accumulations) north and west of a line from > Comanche to Weatherford to Gainesville. A rain/sleet mix possible in> areas north of a line from Killeen to Corsicana to Canton> > Thunderstorms Thursday Evening and Night: Everywhere in North and> Central Texas> > > > POTENTIAL HAZARDS / IMPACTS AND TIMING Thunderstorms are likely to> develop along and ahead of the southward advancing arctic front> Thursday evening and tonight. While they are not expected to be> severe, they may be accompanied by small hail, strong gusty winds,> frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.> > Freezing rain is possible across portions of North Texas tonight> through Saturday morning. Because ground temperatures will remain> fairly warm, most of this freezing rain should be light, and> accumulate only on elevated surfaces. No significant impacts to> trees or powerlines would be expected. Some marginal icing could> occur on elevated bridges and overpasses.> > Another round of winter precipitation, mainly in the form of sleet,> is possible across North Texas late Saturday night through early> Monday morning. Light to significant accumulations of sleet on> elevated road surfaces and a few secondary roads are possible,> causing some slick conditions and modest travel impacts. Spotty> icing on bridges could be a factor as far south as Killeen, Comanche> and Canton, though travel impacts should be minor.> > FORECAST CONFIDENCE Overall forecast confidence in the timing of the> frontal boundary - and resulting temperatures on Friday/Friday night> - is moderate to high. The confidence in some light freezing rain> occurring in the northwest counties Friday/early Saturday is high.> Our confidence in the development of additional winter precipitation> Saturday night through Monday morning is moderate to high. With the> longer time frame for the potential for sleet, it's possible impacts> could be greater across the region and farther east, and we will be> assessing that threat over the next few days.> > ALTERNATE SCENARIOS If temperatures do not cool sufficiently in the> lower atmosphere, then significant sleet will not occur, or will be> very limited across North Texas on Saturday night-Monday morning.> > USEFUL WEBSITES> > National Weather Service Fort Worth home page > http://www.weather.gov/fortworth>T> National Weather Service Fort Worth Hazard Pages > http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/hazard/haz.php?loc=nort&dow=TODAY> > Emergency Management Weather Briefing Page > http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=embriefing> > > > As usual, if you have any questions, please let us know. We'll> provide another update Friday, or earlier if forecast trends dictate.> > > > Jennifer Dunn> > NWS Fort Worth