Housing outlook continues to brighten, recovery still faces headwinds

Posted Date:
1/23/2013

[Las Vegas] The housing upturn that took root last year is expected to pick up momentum in 2013 but headwinds along a number of fronts could impede the pace of the recovery, according to economists speaking at the International Builders' Show in Las Vegas today.

"Nearly every measure of housing market strength - sales, starts, prices, permits and builder confidence - has been trending upward in recent months and we expect to see gradual but steady growth along these lines in 2013," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

In particular, Crowe said that house prices are up nearly 6 percent on an annualized rate over the past 10 months, and that "this has been a trigger for demand to return. People feel comfortable if they buy a house that it will appreciate, not depreciate, in value."

Other factors that bode well for the housing outlook include low mortgage rates, strong housing affordability, rising household formations and the fact that two-thirds of U.S. housing markets can now be considered improving, according to the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index.

For the past five quarters, housing has acted as a net contributor to the economy, steadily increasing its share to 12.8 percent of economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Moreover, continuing gridlock in Washington over how much more fiscal tightening is needed to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio, along with calls by some policymakers for major changes to the mortgage interest deduction, threaten to negatively impact consumer confidence and future housing demand.