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Friday, November 14, 2014

Based on the pattern of Looting and Rioting last August tied to the Mike Brown killing in Ferguson it seems possible to estimate the level of looting and rioting to be expected IF the Grand Jury does not indict Officer Darren Wilson

Little known aspects of the August rioting

#1 A Snitches-Get-Stitches ethos drove much of the early rioting and looting

The QuikTrip (QT) was looted and burned on day 1 because of the locals erroneously believed that Mike Brown had stolen the cigars from QT & that they had "snitched" on him.

Once it became clear to the locals that Mike Brown had actually robbed the Ferguson Market and that the stores owners had aided police by turning over video of the robbery, they too received the snitches-get-stitches attack. That anger then spilled over to other Indian owned business in the area like Red's BBQ

#2 Back-To-School Looting and Hair Extensions

After the locals had satisfied their Snitches-Get-Stitches needs, the looting turned to target Back-To-School clothing needs and Hair Extensions. The Hair Extension looting continued long after the last sneakers and shirts had been looted.

Fast Forward to the expected November rioting

#1 Grand Jury Snitches-Get-Stitches Redux

As Grand Jury information comes out, anyone who provided information that served to exonerate Officer Darren Wilson should expect a Snitches-Get-Stitches backlash

#2 Thanksgiving Black Friday & Christmas Looting

Just as Mike Browns' death coincided with Back-To-School shopping season, the Grand Jury outcome will coincide with Black Friday and Christmas shopping. Compared to school clothing needs, the looting list for Black Friday is much broader and many more stores could be hit. Additionally, all the hair extensions stolen last August are starting to wear out now and a strong looting demand to replenish those hair extensions should be expected.

Police reaction then:

Police over responded like an occupying force in the immediate aftermath of Mike Browns' shooting, in turn angering the local non-criminal but fed up with bad cops subsegment of Ferguson. Shortly after which, militarized police deployed in mass and gave otherwise lawful protesters no where to go except direct forceful confrontation. At that stage, Governor Jay Nixon decided to render the police impotent rather than risk democratic inner city voter rebellion in November.

The result was police chose not to defend business and property from rioters, but rather to flee to impotent staging points. During the worst of this, we overheard police on their radios abandoning the area and informing local homeowners to arm themselves against the rioters.

Police reaction now:

The police likely have lots of built up anger from Jay Nixon's flip-flopping rendering them impotent. And while Governor Jay Nixon's flip flopping will likely continue, he no longer has inner city democratic elections to restrain him from unleashing the militarized police. As such, police over reaction should be expected. But once again, its unlikely police will use direct force to protect property or homeowners.

The broader regional criminal element will likely also be energized to take maximum advantage of Black Friday and Christmas Looting. How the non-criminal local protester element reacts to the situation likely depends on how abused they feel by Governor Nixon's response.

The outsider protester element seems to be agent provocateur and media attention driven, they may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. If the Ferguson McDonalds and its free WiFi burns, they will likely be the forces behind it.

In the end, how bad things get outside of Ferguson is based mostly on how badly Governor Jay Nixon screws things up. How badly things get inside Ferguson is mostly a function of Hair-Extensions demand.