The Nationals started slow, but the Braves should be looking over their shoulders.

The Weekend Takeaway
At the midway point of the regular season, the Nationals were 41-40, and their -19 run differential suggested that they were fortunate to have notched even that mediocre tally. A week earlier, they were a game under .500, at 37-38. And two weeks before that, they were a season-high eight games out of first place in the National League East, a division that, before Opening Day, they were widely expected to win.

Playing a month without Bryce Harper did not help. Neither did the apparent flop of Dan Haren, in whom general manager Mike Rizzo invested $13 million to complete a dominant rotation. And the prolonged slump that befell fellow newcomer Denard Span, who was supposed to be the sparkplug for a potent lineup, rippled through an offense that instead underwhelmed for weeks.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

After making quick work of the minors, Wood could make a smooth transition to the Braves bullpen, but his fantasy value depends heavily on the type of league you play in.

The Situation: With lefty relievers Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty both lost for the season to Tommy John surgery, the Braves are in need of bullpen arms. They’ve purchased Wood’s contract from Double-A Mississippi, adding the 22-year-old southpaw to the big-league bullpen for Thursday night’s game against Toronto.

Background: Atlanta’s second-round pick in last year’s draft, Wood was selected following a three-year career at the University of Georgia. He underwent Tommy John surgery as a freshman in 2010, but hasn’t had an injury hiccup since. Entering pro ball last summer with a mature fastball-changeup combination, Wood cruised through 13 starts in the Low-A South Atlantic League, posting a 2.22 ERA. He impressed during five relief appearances in big-league camp this spring and earned an assignment to Double-A Mississippi. The prospect continued his dominance with the M-Braves, allowing only eight earned runs on 41 hits in 57 innings, walking 15 and fanning 57.

The second installment of a five-part series on the pressing questions confronting each team in 2013.

In the week leading up to Opening Day, we're asking and answering three questions about each team in a five-part series ordered by descending Playoff Pct from the Playoff Odds Report. Today, we continue with a look at the group of six teams with the highest odds of winning at least a Wild Card. As a reminder, you can find links to our preview podcasts for each team here.

How can we tell whether a player's performance improved because he did something different or because he had better luck?

Through his first four starts and 26 1/3 innings of 2012, Braves starter Mike Minor allowed one home run, striking out 21 and walking five. He had a 3.42 ERA, and the Braves were 3-1 when he pitched.

Then came his next six starts. In those six starts (four of which Atlanta lost) and 31 2/3 innings, Minor still struck out 30, but he walked 16 and gave up 12 home runs—as many as Tim Hudson allowed all season. Minor’s outings got so ugly that on May 21st, after the fifth of those sixth starts, Fredi Gonzalezdefended him—sort of—by saying, “he only gave up four solo home runs.”

Things people said that look less smart in retrospect (and probably didn't sound that smart at the time).

Elsewhere on the site today, I have an article up about Braves starter Mike Minor, who was awful early in the season and excellent (at least in terms of preventing runs) after May. In that article, I referred to a May 22nd post by Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, who cited Minor's respectable xFIP and dared to raise the idea—without ever officially endorsing it, mind you—that he might not continue to allow home runs quite as often as he had to that point. That post got 107 comments. These are the best 15.