Tories hold talks to plan legislation if Nick Clegg is forced out and they go it alone

Nick Clegg is giving a speech tomorrow in which we gather he will address the question of the Coalition's ability to go the distance to 2015. I suspect he will use it to assert his commitment to making it work, whatever stresses the Tories might place on it. Events of recent weeks have cast a doubt over the Government's future for two reasons: first, tensions between the Coalition parties are such that they may fall out over issues they care deeply about, notably Europe, and conclude that they can no longer work together; second, that either Mr Cameron or Mr Clegg might find himself deposed as leader, thereby bringing down the coalition. I have long argued that my money is on the Coalition going the distance. The Lib Dems are the more secure bit of the combine, in that Mr Clegg wisely made his colleagues stick their hands in the flame and back the Coalition back in 2010. Mr Cameron has been locked in a war of attrition with those on his benches who don't like him much and really don't like cohabitation. But he too is committed to the project. The Coalition is a personal thing for the two leaders, and that gives it added potency.

But a few days ago in Total Politics Mr Cameron mused about the possibility that it might not survive after all, or certainly that the Tories might face 'new circumstances' – meaning a break with the Lib Dems. Michael Gove stirred things up by suggesting Mr Clegg was distracted by fending off attempts by Vince Cable to supplant him, something which prompted the Lib Dems to accuse the Tories of trying to distract from their own troubles by trouble-making. Now I gather that meetings have taken place in Downing Street to discuss the eventuality of a break-up, specifically if Mr Clegg is forced out in a Lib Dem coup. The favoured scenario being canvassed by the Tory end of the Coalition is a move against the Lib Dem leader at his party conference. The discussions were to figure out what a minority Tory government might do in policy terms if it were freed of its Lib Dem shackles. "What sort of legislation would we want to introduce that the Lib Dems wouldn't let us" was how it was explained to me. As I say, I expect events will ensure that the Coalition will survive, and that Tories who day-dream about losing Mr Clegg should worry instead about their guy's position. But the fact that they are talking about it in the centre is interesting.