ISLAMABAD – A nightmare security scenario for Pakistan seems to be emerging - that of a two-front military conflict. Pakistan is already facing an internal militancy aided and abetted from Afghanistan and is threatened with all manner of likely US boots actually coming into Pakistan. Already, the drone attacks on Pakistani soil have increased. For all these reasons, Pakistan has moved a large chunk of its forces away from its Eastern border with India and along the LoC, and moved them to the Western front along the international border with Afghanistan as well as into FATA.

Now India has upped the military ante against Pakistan after meetings between Indian officials and America’s Holbrooke and Gates. Hence we are seeing the unprovoked Indian military firing at Pakistani forces across the international border, the working boundary and across the LoC, which has resulted in death and injury for Pakistani soldiers. What can possibly be the Indian intent at this time to undertake such military adventurism? Had it been given some go-ahead by the Americans.

This new military provocation comes when there seems to have been a decision made by the British and Americans to give India a major military role in Afghanistan. The two allies are all set to spring this nasty decision onto Pakistan at the international conference on Afghanistan in London at the end of this month when it will be proposed that India train the Afghan National Army - something it is already doing at a small level covertly and on that pretext already has its operatives in Afghanistan. It is these operatives who are conducting the aid and assistance to militants within Pakistan.
In view of these developments, what are the immediate options for Pakistan which will protect its interests as well as signal an effective message to both the US and India?

First and most immediate, Pakistan needs to move its troops back to its Eastern front and cease operations in FATA. We need to distinguish between our militancy problem, which is certainly threatening and very real, but has multiple dimensions, and the misguided US ‘War on Terror’. On the Western front, it needs to realign its forces along the Chaman border area with Afghanistan where it is expected US boots may enter Pakistan on the ground.

Second, it needs to tell the US in no uncertain terms that it will not tolerate these Indian military incitements and may well up the ante also choosing its own time, place and type of response.

Third, Pakistan needs to categorically refuse to participate in the London Conference if the plan to train the Afghan National Army by India is even discussed informally. In fact, under the circumstances, if India participates in the Conference, Pakistan should consider the option of boycotting it. Let us see how far the US and UK get in Afghanistan without Pakistan’s active cooperation!

Fourth, it is time to demand that Indian operatives move out of Afghanistan and Indian consulates in Afghanistan along the border area with Pakistan be closed.

The fact that the Indian aggression has come immediately in the aftermath of the discussions between the Indians and visiting Americans including Defence Secretary Gates, and following on the heels of the visit to Kabul by India’s DG MI, shows only too clearly the Indo-US nexus in terms of presenting Pakistan with a possible two-front threat.

Pakistani's are thriving on conspiracy theories, the latest one being tha tIndia wishes to undo partition and susume pak territory into India. They are clearly delusional and think of Pakistan as some sort of El-Dorado that every one and their uncle wants a piece of! Sheesh!!!!. I wonder what these fellows mix in their morning cuppa, but it sure seems to be some seriously potent stuff for them to remain this delusional.

We attacked pak soldiers on international border??? is she smoking afghan opium or what. surely she is a spawn of the zaid hamid cult.

US and UK chose india to train afghan army because many reasons. but the main reason is that in case pakistan backtracks in co-operating just like its mentioned in the 4th point of the article, india can still access afghanisthan through iran, which US and UK cant.

An unrealistic wish list ?First and most immediate, Pakistan needs to move its troops back to its Eastern front and cease operations in FATA. We need to distinguish between our militancy problem, which is certainly threatening and very real, but has multiple dimensions, and the misguided US ‘War on Terror’. On the Western front, it needs to realign its forces along the Chaman border area with Afghanistan where it is expected US boots may enter Pakistan on the ground.

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Wow! Threat to pakistan is any one (US&India) but Taliban and Al-Qaeda. And she thinks (or dreams) that Pakistan has the guts & will take on American's even if they come into Pakistan. Pakistan cannot even lift a finger as long as Pakistan lives on the doles of Americans.

Second, it needs to tell the US in no uncertain terms that it will not tolerate these Indian military incitements and may well up the ante also choosing its own time, place and type of response.

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And how Pakistan will up the ante militarily??. The coward PA can only perpetrate terrorism hiding behind the terrorists.

Third, Pakistan needs to categorically refuse to participate in the London Conference if the plan to train the Afghan National Army by India is even discussed informally. In fact, under the circumstances, if India participates in the Conference, Pakistan should consider the option of boycotting it. Let us see how far the US and UK get in Afghanistan without Pakistan’s active cooperation!

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Pakistan should try and see what happens if they boycott London conference.

Fourth, it is time to demand that Indian operatives move out of Afghanistan and Indian consulates in Afghanistan along the border area with Pakistan be closed.

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Oh really!. Keep on trying.

What Shireen Mazari is not realizing that Pakistan cannot sustain itself without the AID and begging money it gets from US and NATO countries. US has already realized the double games being played by PA by taking action against only TTP and not Afghan Taliban. US is now increasingly targeting a part of Afghan Taliban hiding in North waziristan. Once it takes out top leaders in North-waziristan it will go ahead and target the remaining factions of Afghan Taliban in Orakzai, Quetta and Karachi. It will keep supporting pakistan till it gets its NATO supplies despite its non-cooperation in War on Terror. But when US leaves Afghanistan partially, it will leave behind a stronger ANA (Afghan National Army) being trained by India. This will give the India the leverage to entrench itself deep into Afghanistan and spoil the party of Pakistan/Afghan Taliban.

In the mean time, Pakistan because of ambiguity and duality in its action on terrorists will go down the drain day by day with TTP/Punjab terrorists taking over cities of Pakistan one by one. That time is not too far away. India should also make contingent measures to take care of any fall out that comes out of the Pakistan's destruction.

The thing that Miss Mazari missed in her article is the question - Who is going to train the Afghan National Army ?

American and the few Brits are strapped and spread thin taking the fight to the Taliban. Many American soldiers are on the 2nd or 3rd tour.

All other European nations/Canada etc have very small contingents.

Training the Afghan National army will require thousands of experienced soldiers and no country other than India has the ability to do that. Can Pak do it ?? They are already strapped fighting the TTP. Plus, the Afghans hate the guts of the Pak anyway. Even the Pakistanis admit that....read the article in yeterday's Dawn.

The thing that Miss Mazari missed in her article is the question - Who is going to train the Afghan National Army ?

American and the few Brits are strapped and spread thin taking the fight to the Taliban. Many American soldiers are on the 2nd or 3rd tour.

All other European nations/Canada etc have very small contingents.

Training the Afghan National army will require thousands of experienced soldiers and no country other than India has the ability to do that. Can Pak do it ?? They are already strapped fighting the TTP. Plus, the Afghans hate the guts of the Pak anyway. Even the Pakistanis admit that....read the article in yeterday's Dawn.

India is the logical choice !!

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Thousands of troops for training lol what are u smoking and dude they are already training ANA or SHUMALI ITEHAD consisting HAZARA AND TAJIKS who with india supported USSR to attack AFGH and remmember sir 55%AFGHANS are PUSHTON who LOVE PAKISTAN and have relatives living on in PAKISTAN and it was PAKISTAN which took them in during USSR INVASION and sir letme tell u hazaras and tajiks are hated in AFGHANISTAN by the majority PUSHTUNS and plus remember ur embassy was BOMBED by afghans in KABUL thats how much MAJORITY OF AFGHANS LIKE YOU.
Be realistic

Thousands of troops for training lol what are u smoking and dude they are already training ANA or SHUMALI ITEHAD consisting HAZARA AND TAJIKS who with india supported USSR to attack AFGH and remmember sir 55%AFGHANS are PUSHTON who LOVE PAKISTAN and have relatives living on in PAKISTAN and it was PAKISTAN which took them in during USSR INVASION and sir letme tell u hazaras and tajiks are hated in AFGHANISTAN by the majority PUSHTUNS and plus remember ur embassy was BOMBED by afghans in KABUL thats how much MAJORITY OF AFGHANS LIKE YOU.
Be realistic

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I think you are the one smoking afghani opium. better get your facts straight on those wars.

its true pak trained all those mujahids against soviet including the northern alliance. you may be in bed with pashtuns but they are the one who killing you inside pakistan. the majority of afghans hate pakistan and neither do they like the US alliance but are grateful to india for developing their country which you guys torn apart. hence they sending their soldiers here in india for training.

you can bomb one embassy in kabul, but you not getting the real picture of how india is gaining control of afghanisthan. from their consulates, intelligence network and now training the army, we have sandwiched pak. with iran already ready to give india its base to attack pak , you dont have a 2 but 3 front threat.

We are already realistic, but paki's are building castles in the air without realizing whats happening in their own backyard.

Thousands of troops for training lol what are u smoking and dude they are already training ANA or SHUMALI ITEHAD consisting HAZARA AND TAJIKS who with india supported USSR to attack AFGH and remmember sir 55%AFGHANS are PUSHTON who LOVE PAKISTAN and have relatives living on in PAKISTAN and it was PAKISTAN which took them in during USSR INVASION and sir letme tell u hazaras and tajiks are hated in AFGHANISTAN by the majority PUSHTUNS and plus remember ur embassy was BOMBED by afghans in KABUL thats how much MAJORITY OF AFGHANS LIKE YOU.
Be realistic

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You are assuming that most Pashtun automatically are going to side with Pakistan because there are Pashtuns in Pak. Baloney !!

The recent survey shows that even a vast majority of Pashtun in Afghanistan hate the Pakistanis. Karzai who is Pashtun himself never wastes an opportunity to nail Pakistan when he is on international media. Even his opposition opponent feels the same way.

@ SSG
Do you even know what the pashtun really want , what they really want is paktoonistan. The Afghans are little more than second class citizens in the majority of pakistan. they have always protested the fact(along with the baloch , mujahirs & most other ethnic groups in pakistan) that the majority of the higher posts in government jobs and facilities went to serve Punjab and the Punjabis in general whereas the Pashtuns are a major part of the rank and file of the security appratus.The pashtuns have always considered Tribal loyalties to be more important than loyalties to any government in islamabad. The pashtun homelnd was divided by the british and a significant portion of that homeland now lies in pakistan. the pashtuns have been fighting for autonomy from any central authority in pakistan for years. The SWAT and FATA areas along with the NWFP and large patrs of southern afghanistan have for long been defacto part of an independent paktoonistan run largely by the writ of the pashtun jirgas than any writ from islamabad or kabul. The Jihad in afghanistan was started by these jirgas not by islamabad .Islamabad and washington simply jumped onto the bandwagon due to Cold war pressures, Pakistan would not and could not lift a finger to help the Afghans if it did not have the american eagle watching it's back(well not unless it wanted the 8th guards army to steamroll islamabad with 4000+ T-80'S anyway).The pashtuns have amarriage of convenience with pakistanpakistan needed to show the Islamic world thatit was helping the Afghans and the pastuns needed the guns it was an alliance of convenience an alliance that has since been broken by both parties.

Analytic SummaryPashtuns in Pakistan are concentrated in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), both located in the extreme northwest of Pakistan and on the border with Afghanistan (GROUPCON = 3). A significant number of Pashtuns are also in Baluchistan, where they dominate the urban merchant class, and in Punjab. Pashtuns also live in the urban centers of Sindh, Karachi and Hyderabad, where in the 1980s and early 1990s they were part of ethnic clashes.

Pashtun society is organized along tribal, clan and sub-clan loyalties. Intra-communal conflict has arisen frequently from these tribal divisions throughout the Pashtuns’ history, although between 2001 and 2003 there were no reports of intra-group violence (INTRACON01-03=0). However intracommunal conflict, between pro- and anti-Taliban forces and between Shi'a and Sunni Pashtuns, has occurred in recent years (INTRACON04-06 = 1). Resistant to centralization in their own society, Pashtun have overcome internal division to fiercely resist attempts by the Pakistani central administration to place them under more direct governmental control. However, in part because of their internal fragmentation, Pashtuns have also not become significant political actors at the center, although they are over-represented in the military and security apparatus (POLDIS06 = 0). Most Pashtun, who speak Pashto, are Sunni Muslim (LANG = 2; BELIEF = 0; RACE = 0). While religious life is intertwined in many Pashtuns’ lives, daily behavior is also impacted significantly by Paktoonkhwali, the tribal code of honor. Literacy rates remain low, particularly among Pashtun women. Traditionally a pastoral people, most Pashtun are herders and farmers. In Baluchistan, they dominate the urban merchant class. In the modern era, poppy cultivation has become a significant source of income for some Pashtuns. Previously, Pashtun-dominated areas were poor and underdeveloped due to economic neglect, although the government sporadically attempted to implement remedial policies. However, with the emergence of a strong, Pakistani-based Taliban, economic policies have been implemented against Pashtun-dominated areas in the name of "counter-terrorism" that significantly hamper the economic prospects of all residents, regardless of support for the Taliban. These include, most prominently, economic blockades imposed against NWFP and FATA (ECDIS06 = 4).

The civil war in Afghanistan and U.S.-led war against the Taliban have significantly impacted Pakistani Pashtuns, who have hosted Afghan Pashtun refugees and taken part in the actual fighting. The traditional Pashtun homeland, Paktoonistan, was divided between Afghanistan and Pakistan by the British colonial administration. However, social, political and economic ties between Pashtuns largely supersede the political border imposed on them.

The Pashtun, with their many internal divisions, are represented by multiple political organizations. The Awami National Party is perhaps the most dominant political force among Pashtuns. However, they are also represented by the nationalist Pahktoon khwa Milli Awami Party, the National Awami Party Pakistan and various Islamic parties. In 2002, the various Pashtun nationalist and Islamic parties were discussing a possible alliance, which could lead to increased political power should they be successful in forming a united platform and organizational structure. Pashtun grievances, like most other ethno-linguistic groups in Pakistan, center on perceived Punjabi dominance. Various Pashtun parties lobby for increased autonomy in the provinces, increased economic opportunities and development, equal distribution of government resources, and effective representation at the center. In 1998, the Pakhtoon khwa Milli Awami Party allied with Baluch and Mohajir nationalist parties to form the Pakistan Oppressed Nations Movement, which lobbies for provincial autonomy and control of resources. Intercommunal cooperation has continued to grow, with fragile coalitions being maintained between Pashtuns and Sindhis, Mohajirs and Baluchis. With these ethnic groups banding together in protest against Musharraf’s military-dominated Punjab government, the risk for intercommunal violence was fairly low (INTERCON01-03 = 0). No incidents have been reported in recent years of violence between Pashtuns and other ethnic groups in Pakistan. However, Pashtun tribal militias have attacked foreign militants (primarily Central Asians) affiliated with the Taliban or al Qaeda in recent years.

Pashtuns have engaged in high levels of violence against the state in recent years, primarily by the Taliban but also by other tribal militias (REB04-06 = 5). There have also been consistent protests (PROT04 = 3; PROT06 = 3). Pashtuns have also faced high levels of government repression, against both the civilian population and political actors (REPGENCIV04-06 = 5; REPNVIOL04-06 = 3; REPVIOL04-06 = 5).

The Taliban insurrection is both an ethnic and a social movement. The Taliban embody both a Pashtun irredentism and a shift in the traditional tribal system. The insurgency is limited to Pashtun-populated areas; in Pakistan, too, the “liberated Islamic areas” are all Pashtun. Non-Pashtun Islamic militants choose other ways to act.

The issue of Pashtun frustration at being shut out of power has not been ignored by the Western powers. They supported the dismantling of the ethnically non-Pashtun Northern Alliance forces that took Kabul in November 2001 — a rather easy task after the assassination of their charismatic leader Ahmed Shah Massoud.

on a serious note , i suppose it is state aided propaganda to divert the minds of simple and patriotic pakistanis from the current situation

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this is nothing , see brasstacks website and youtube videos on zaid hamid and others like him . these guys are propaganda has crossed limits by saying their dream is to have radio pakistan in delhi. can u believe this?

its a joke to see paki's getting mesmerized into such BS rather deal with their internal problems.