Posted by colonels19 on 11/16/2012 1:03:00 PM (view original):A lot of the new baseball metrics are overcomplicated garbage

Conceived by statnerds so they can say "Look how smart I am!!"

Most probably don't even understand baseball. Plenty of HBD players are clueless to actual baseball but they can work numbers.

I'm a stat guy and I've created a reasonably simple, but all inclusive stat that bases itself around what players do/produce and can control, so H, TB, SB, CS, BB, HBP, and K...yes it's a solely offensive analysis but I would argue more/as solid as anything out there currently...everything isn't a regressive this that or the other.

But you don't use any rate stats, and H and TB have a significant overlap. What role do K's play in in your formula? Are K's somehow worse than other outs?

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/16/2012 3:42:00 PM (view original):When the AM evolve into something where they can explain the use of "3.4", I'll pay more attention to them.

I don't need WAR to know that both Trout and Cabrera had fantastic seasons. WAR is a nice little stat that one can use to compare players but it's simply not the be all to end all. A CF putting up 30 homers and 49 SB while hitting .326 is pretty damn good. Striking out once every 4.5 PA is not. Of course, that could lead to the ol' "An out is an out. Strikeouts are no worse than fly outs" argument. But, for me, nothing positive happens when you walk back to the dugout with your bat in your hand.

Cabrera grounded into 28 DP's where Trout only grounded into 7.

Double plays (a.k.a "rally killers") are far more damaging to offensive innings than are strikeouts.

DP can be assigned the same value as RBI. Neither happen when no one is on base(excluding homers).

Of course, with Trout striking out so much, he sure has less chances to hit into a DP.

To say that Trout was "significantly" more valuable in the field than Cabby is just plain wrong. Cabby wasn't Brooks Robinson but he was top 5 in fielding pct. and played significantly more innings than anyone else at 3rd. And, contrary to what MikeT will chime in with next, Cabby was very good at 3rd this year. You can argue all you want but as far as "most valuable"...the Tigers are NOWHERE without Cabby and the Angels still wouldn't have made the playoffs without him. Trout had a great season, but Cabby was just better, plain and simple.

Rpos, Positional Adjustment Runs

If you take a quick look at the batting performance by defensive position, you'll quickly see that teams are willing to sacrifice offense at "defensive" positions (stats are prorated to 650 plate appearances).

Split

G

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

TB

GDP

HBP

SH

SF

IBB

ROE

BAbip

tOPS+

sOPS+

as C

165

650

582

64

142

28

1

17

70

3

2

54

126

.245

.313

.389

.703

226

14

5

4

4

5

5

.282

95

100

as 1B

152

650

575

75

155

32

1

22

85

3

1

63

121

.271

.345

.452

.797

259

15

5

0

5

7

5

.305

121

100

as 2B

151

649

586

75

152

29

4

12

62

13

4

47

103

.260

.320

.389

.709

228

11

6

5

4

2

6

.294

97

100

as 3B

155

649

583

69

147

31

2

14

71

7

3

52

111

.252

.317

.390

.707

227

14

5

3

5

4

7

.287

96

100

as SS

152

650

590

73

155

28

3

10

60

15

6

44

98

.263

.317

.380

.697

224

11

4

6

4

2

7

.298

94

100

as LF

152

649

585

75

149

29

3

17

70

14

5

52

124

.255

.320

.408

.728

238

10

5

2

4

3

6

.295

102

100

as CF

148

650

583

84

152

29

6

14

62

25

8

52

124

.261

.326

.410

.735

238

9

5

5

3

2

7

.307

104

100

as RF

152

650

578

78

155

31

3

20

75

11

4

59

123

.269

.341

.441

.782

254

11

6

1

4

5

5

.308

117

100

as DH

151

650

578

74

151

31

1

20

84

6

2

62

120

.263

.337

.427

.764

247

15

4

0

4

5

6

.298

112

100

as P

283

649

556

29

78

12

0

3

31

3

1

21

213

.141

.175

.182

.357

101

6

1

69

0

0

5

.221

0

100

When one quantifies these differences and also looks at the changes in fielding performance when players move to different positions we can estimate the average differences between positions.

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

C: +10 runs

SS: +7.5 runs

2B: +3 runs

CF: +2.5 runs

3b: +2 runs

RF: -7.5 runs

LF: -7.5 runs

1B: -10 runs

DH: -15 runs

P: see Pitcher Positional Adjustment

Since fielding performances change over time, these values will vary as you travel back in time. For example, first basemen in the early 1900's through the 1940's were required to be better fielders than they are today. They were still the worst fielders on the infield, but the position had more of a defensive focus then than the corner outfield positions did.

To compute a player's Positional adjustment Runs, we add together for each non-pitching position: Position multiplier (from above) × innings played at position / 1,350 Innings. For players who are only pitchers this is Pitcher Positional Adjustment (from below) × (PA/4) / 150.

Posted by colonels19 on 11/16/2012 4:19:00 PM (view original):It is an average, not just a raw number, I don't know it off the top of my head, perhaps when I get home....I think I have Ks valued at half

Half a run or...?

I'm not trying to hammer you on this, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind the formula.

Posted by colonels19 on 11/16/2012 4:19:00 PM (view original):It is an average, not just a raw number, I don't know it off the top of my head, perhaps when I get home....I think I have Ks valued at half

Half a run or...?

I'm not trying to hammer you on this, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind the formula.

It's a lot simpler than this run business...an extra half an out, kind of a penalty for not putting the ball in play...do you think these statgeeks got paid for creating their stats...just curious

Posted by rsp777 on 11/16/2012 4:15:00 PM (view original):To say that Trout was "significantly" more valuable in the field than Cabby is just plain wrong. Cabby wasn't Brooks Robinson but he was top 5 in fielding pct. and played significantly more innings than anyone else at 3rd. And, contrary to what MikeT will chime in with next, Cabby was very good at 3rd this year. You can argue all you want but as far as "most valuable"...the Tigers are NOWHERE without Cabby and the Angels still wouldn't have made the playoffs without him. Trout had a great season, but Cabby was just better, plain and simple.

Defense is a lot more than fielding percentage. Kevin Kouzmanoff lead 3B in fielding percentage one year and he was horrible at defense.

Posted by colonels19 on 11/16/2012 4:19:00 PM (view original):It is an average, not just a raw number, I don't know it off the top of my head, perhaps when I get home....I think I have Ks valued at half

Half a run or...?

I'm not trying to hammer you on this, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind the formula.

It's a lot simpler than this run business...an extra half an out, kind of a penalty for not putting the ball in play...do you think these statgeeks got paid for creating their stats...just curious