Why Blowout Losses are Important to Savvy EPL Bettors

Here is what I know about soccer: the U.S. men’s national team didn’t qualify for the World Cup because of a 40/1 nightmare scenario playing out and Christian Pulisic is a star in the making.

That’s it, but not being an expert won’t keep me from profiting off of futbol. Bet Labs recently added the English Premier League as a sport. Using our contrarian betting philosophies, we’ve uncovered few winning betting systems.

One strategy that works across sports is buying low on teams off a loss. Casual bettors are influenced by recent events and that tendency is magnified if a team suffers a blowout. One poor performance can cause bettors to fade a club in its next match. These overreactions have created excellent opportunities for contrarian bettors.

In Swansea City’s most recent EPL fixture, Carlos Carvalhal’s club was defeated 2-0 by Tottenham. The Swans were more competitive than the final score indicates with opportunities to equalize in the second half, notably a header from Mike van der Hoorn that hit the post. In the end, it was the soccer club’s 14th defeat in 22 league games. How have teams off a blowout performed in their next match?

Trend

Teams coming off a blowout loss (two or more goals) that are big underdogs have gone 21-54 (28.0%) on the moneyline in the next game. These squads are often +300 or greater on the moneyline, so despite the poor win rate they have returned a sizable profit. Following this Pro System, $100 bettors have made $2,907 in the last six seasons.

Our Pick

On Saturday, Swansea travels to St. James’ Park to take on Newcastle. The Swans are at the bottom of the table (20th out of 20 EPL teams), the Magpies won their previous fixture, 3-1, and will have the support of the home crowd. Even with those advantages, the moneyline is moving in Swansea’s direction. After opening +402, the Swans are now +369 to pull the upset. Contrarian betting means taking ugly dogs and the Swans qualify.