Moscow seeks nuclear compromise from Tehran

A worker rides a bike in front of the reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. Source: AP / Mehr News Agency / Majid Asgaripour

Vladimir Putin prepares to pay a visit to Iran to make a deal with Hassan Rouhani.

Kommersant has
learned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Iran on
Aug. 12. According to sources involved in preparations for the visit, the
Kremlin is hoping to use Iran’s election of a new president, Hassan Rouhani, to
revive negotiations on the country’s nuclear program.

Vladimir Putin will also
discuss bilateral issues, such as the construction of new power units for the
Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Experts view the upcoming visit as “promising yet
risky.”

“The visit [by
Russian President Vladimir Putin to Iran] is scheduled to take place on Aug.
12–13,” a source close to the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. A Kommersant
source in the Kremlin confirmed that the visit is in the works, although it
remains to be seen whether it will take place over one or two days. The source
added that this depends on the agenda, which is “still being worked out.”

President
Putin last visited Tehran in October 2007 to take part in the Caspian Summit,
on the fringes of which he met with Iran’s former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The 2007 visit galvanized
Russian-Iranian relations, which deteriorated once again during the presidency
of Dmitry Medvedev, who terminated a contract for supplies of the S-300
anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran.

According to Kommersant
sources familiar with preparations for the visit, the conflict surrounding
Iran’s nuclear program will be a key item on its agenda. Putin announced in
June: “Iran is playing by the rules in the nuclear sphere. There is no evidence
to the contrary.”

The Russian president added, however, that “there are open
questions,” but “provided there’s patience and willingness to work with each
other in good faith, it’s possible to find answers.”

“We need to capitalize on the current
situation — the coming to power of a new president — to push
the negotiations forward,” a Russian diplomatic source told Kommersant. “The
visit will allow us to gauge the new Iranian leadership, to see if they are
ready to move in the direction of paying more attention to the international
community’s demands.”

At the same
time, according to the source, the situation is complicated by the fact that
Iran’s president has limited powers: It is Ayatollah Khamenei who calls the
shots. To nudge him to a compromise, the West will have to guarantee a lifting
of sanctions.

Two years ago, Moscow presented a proposal to settle the Iranian
nuclear problem via step-by-stem mutual concessions (the so-called Lavrov
Plan). That initiative has yet to be implemented, but the Russian president’s
visit could breathe new life into it.

“Everything
will depend on negotiations with Ayatollah Khamenei,” PIR Center president
Vladimir Orlov said. “For Putin, this visit is promising yet risky: Many have
slipped trying to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem.”

Vladimir Putin
is also expected to discuss bilateral relations in Tehran — above all, cooperation in the nuclear power and military-technical
areas.

During his visit to Moscow in early July, the outgoing Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad referred to Russia’s construction of new power units at the
Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant as essentially a done deal. However, Kommersant
sources insist that Moscow has yet to make a political decision on this matter.

Rosatom has
stated that the state-owned corporation’s relations with Iran are limited to
the completed first unit, and no negotiations on any other projects are under
way.

Kommersant’s sources in the nuclear power industry explained that Rosatom
is not really interested in continuing its work in Iran, now that it is bidding
for contracts in the Czech Republic and Finland.

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In addition, Rosatom actually
incurred losses from building the first unit for the Bushehr: The contract was
drafted in the 1990s, when it was more important to secure orders for the Ministry
for Atomic Energy than it was to make a profit. Yet Kommersant’s sources did
not rule out that Russia would “meet Iran’s request in this area, for political
reasons.”

In the
military-technical area, Moscow has already met Tehran’s demands by offering it
the superior Antey-2500 systems instead of the S-300. The Russian government is
hoping that the out-of-court compromise will help convince Iran to revoke a $4-billion
lawsuit it filed against Rosoboronexport for breaching the S-300 supply
contract.

Tehran has not yet responded. A source close to Russia’s
military-technical cooperation system said that Vladimir Putin would, “without
fail,” mention this subject during his visit.