Friday, 1 April 2011

Top ten classes

I've had a few questions recently about the chances of Michigan landing a top ten class, so I thought I'd address the situation in a post.

I know its a good year for the Midwest prospects, and I know Hoke/Mattison are great recruiters, but I just don't see it happening this year. Here's why:

1) Michigan doesn't have that many scholarships to give out. UM's class will be a similar size to last year, with around 19-20 places available. It's hard to beat out SEC schools who sign 30 kids a year, even if 25 of those 30 are three star guys.

2) Top ten is hard to achieve. There are a lot of good schools in college football, and many consistently bring in better classes than UM. Here's a list of schools that I can pretty much guarantee will have a better class this year:- Florida State- Alabama- Florida- Georgia- Auburn- Texas- Oklahoma- LSUThese are schools that produce top 10 classes year after year; there's eight names on that list, and to be honest I should probably add Notre Dame to make nine. Like it or not, the Irish figure to have a strong year, on and off the field.

3) Winning games matters. Brady Hoke might have won over the Michigan fan base already, but a lot of recruits will want to see what he achieves on the field before they think 'Michigan is back'. RR's 2010 and 2011 classes struggled because recruits were always waiting to see the finished product on the field, and unfortunately it never came about. Hopefully Hoke can deliver.

4) Last week Michigan offered 2013 QB prospect Shane Morris, almost two years before he'll sign his letter of intent. My point? Other coaches have been recruiting these 2012 kids longer than Hoke has at Michigan. He only took over a few months ago, and that first month was spent trying to salvage the 2011 class.

5) Five star guys help. Michigan is in a good position with a few top100 caliber guys, but I don't think they will end up signing that elite prospect that really headlines the class. Stefon Diggs is probably the only 5* guy right now that Michigan has a chance of signing, and thats only based on us signing his teammate, Blake Countess.

Conclusion: If all goes well for Michigan, they could land just outside the top 10. But for this to happen they'd probably need to sign the Detroit trio, Dan O'Brien, Wormley, Diamond and a bunch of other four star prospects. Personally I think they will be somewhere between 15-25, but heck, it's only April, a lot could change between now and February.

I think ultimately the most important ranking of class is average stars. I think its rediculous that the sites order recruiting class based on how many players you sign. There needs to be a better metric because OL are often not ranked as high as other positions, so your class rank is immediately effected by grabbing a large number of lineman.

We sit here whining and teams like Mich State and Wisconsin are behind us in recruit rankings. These teams are raw examples of finding system guys that can win games. How can we not win with the same talent or some would argue we(Mich) have better talent?I know this is a recruiting blog and I want Wormley, RJS, J Ross, Diamond, Morgan, all the players we have a chance to land...but why the heck can't we win with decent talent? Is there any reason why we can't be better on D with current players (not saying we could be top 40 D) playing in a new scheme? Please don't respond with lack of talent. You will hurt my feelings:)

I agree nolan, the system last year was awful. We blitzed when everyone knew we shouldnt and it seemed like we rushed 3 guys when we knew they were running. Injuries also killed our defense. Lossing two starting corner backs and throwing two freshman in the mix will affect every defense. IT will be better against the run due to the 4 linemen and more experience and with our two cornerbacks back our pass defense will be better as well. Should be a fun year in AA

Sorry Benji, but I'm going to have to disagree with you. I think several of the players that are high on us will end up being 5 star recruits when it's all said and done. Also, a class of 20-22 players isn't a small class. Yes, the SEC schools sign big classes, which is yet another example of those crooked bastards from the south doing shady things, but I digress. As for the defense, I think it will improve immensely. I truly believe our scheme was the culprit behind our performance. The 3-3-5 cannot work, well unless you're playing in the pitiful Big East. I think William Campbell feels appreciated now, and I think he'll end up fulfilling his 5 star reputation.

i like your writing style benji, but i can nearly assure you, that once zeke pike verbals to us, youll be singing a very different tune. expect that alot of top recruits will follow him, and a top 7 recruiting class.

Pike a 5 star, is almost in the bag, and a 5 star wr will definitely follow. And I expect Dunn to do the same, along with Diggs and a few others. Don't underestimate Hoke's recruiting ability.