Will Zito’s turnaround start today?

Is the huge contract affecting his head? Is his fastball not-so-fast anymore? Why is he throwing fewer of his knee-buckling curveballs? Those are questions that have dogged Giants pitcher Barry Zito all offseason. After signing the largest pitcher contract in baseball history (seven years, $126 million) in December, 2006, the former Oakland phenom looked much less phenomenal with his new team across the bay in San Francisco.

Zito’s ERA (4.53) was higher than it had been in any of his first seven seasons, and for the first time in his career, he lost more games than he won (11-13 record). His struggles began on the first pitch of at-bats, when Zito threw 68 percent fastballs and just 15 percent curveballs. That first pitch fastball-curveball ratio was drastically different than the 57-27 percent split he employed during his 2002 Cy Young season. And although he leaned to the more controllable pitch (fastball) to start hitters off, Zito’s overall first pitch strike percentage of 56 percent last year fell short of the MLB average, 58 percent.

The big, looping curveball is still there, and it`s still pretty effective. But in 2007, Zito’s fastball came in 3 miles per hour slower than it did just two years earlier, and resulted in strikes only 58 percent of the time (much worse than the MLB average of 64 percent). The table below summarizes how Zito’s fastball has slipped over the past three years:

Zito’s Fastball Effectiveness from 2005-2007:

Year: Velocity, Strike Pct., SLG, Well-Hit, Avg.

2005: 87.6, 60, .402, .195

2006: 85.9, 55, .421, .211

2007: 84.7, 58, .485, .284

There is another disturbing trend that Zito hopes to improve upon today: his 0-3 record with a 9.49 ERA in three previous Opening Day starts. Can he buck that trend and begin to be his old Cy Young-self again? The questions will begin to be answered today against the rival Dodgers.