Monday, June 02, 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: Vladimir Putin’s draft strategy, Stephen Drew’s breakfast, and whether Kevin has taken a material step toward harming Russell Westbrook.

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It's going to be really, really hard for him to get a max deal from Chicago. All of the other moves the Bulls would have to make (dumping Gibson and Dunleavy for nothing, amnestying Boozer) are ones the Bulls might find hard to do in time to make a deal possible (and ones they wouldn't make unless Melo was guaranteed to come) and ones they might not want to make and/or are debateable how much they hurt the team. I think there's almost no chance for a S&T that makes any sense.

IOW, it's much more likely they get Love, and even that I don't think is going to happen.

I'm pretty sure many team would take on Gibson or Dunleavy if it doesn't cost them much of anything, they're EXCELLENT role players, especially Dunleavy's contract only runs for 1 year. Gibson's age and length of deal maybe the only slight concern.

Dwyane Wade has looked completely cooked for much of this series. Melo or not, the Heat are going to have to think long and hard about what to do about that fact this offseason, even if they storm back into this series.

Wow. I expected this to be a close series that could've gone either way, much like last year. Now it's looking like the Spurs might blow the Heat out of the water. Miami should feel lucky they weren't swept at this point.

I mean, part of this is luck. No one shoots 60% from the floor consistently. Parker's knocking down midrange jumpers with a man on him. That's a 40% shot at best.

Yeah, part of it is luck. But more of it is that the Spurs are better.

I love that this Spurs team went to the Finals 2 years in a row. It was just a few years ago that people were saying that a team like the Spurs couldn't win the West because they were all about their bench and balanced offense which didn't work in the playoffs because benches shortened and defenses tightened up. I always felt there was a lot of bullshit in such statements, and I feel somewhat vindicated.

Not that I think the Spurs have built the new blueprint. Obviously, having LeBron James is the best way to be a contender. But I think that the whole argument of teams being built for the regular season but not the post-season is mostly crap, and always have.

Wade has a player option for 21.6M next year. I said in preseason that the only scenario where I could James thinking about bailing Miami is a bad playoff loss, Wade's playing badly in that loss, then opting in--leading to some kind of break between them. Bosh's and James's player options are for 22.1 apiece, BTW.

The Spurs really are kicking the crap out of them. Although LeBron blowing a gasket in game 1 didn't help. (You've no doubt discussed that to death here. My take was that the criticism of LeBron that he "should have played through it" was mind-numbingly silly. He physically couldn't go. That said, it did look bad for him that everyone else was running around the court, but there he was unable to compete. Not sure whether it was just a fluke thing or whether he didn't prepare in some way, or whether those tights he was wearing partially trapped the heat inside his body. But people describe him as such a "physical specimen," and yet he couldn't answer the bell for whatever reason.)

Dwyane Wade has looked completely cooked for much of this series. Melo or not, the Heat are going to have to think long and hard about what to do about that fact this offseason, even if they storm back into this series.

I think this is it for this version of the Heat. Wade looks pretty much done, they have no inside presence anymore, and James is being run into the ground. Maybe they do run out one more season together but I don't think they're getting back to the Finals again with this core.

Signing Melo would be a disaster in my opinion. Another ball-dominant wing player over 30, especially one who is a poor defender, is the exact opposite of what they need right now.

It was just a few years ago that people were saying that a team like the Spurs couldn't win the West because they were all about their bench and balanced offense which didn't work in the playoffs because benches shortened and defenses tightened up.

Who said that? If anyone did indeed say that they're a crazy person, but then I'm not a Spurs fan so there are large gaps in my knowledge of what is said about them. If anything the feeling was that the Spurs would get in trouble because they are/were old. But with the emergence of young players like Green and Leonard who have played HUGE roles obviously they can still play with anyone. That and their old players turning out to be ageless helps as well.

As an A's fan I feel for Miami. I get the feeling history is not going to look kindly on them. I love Dallas and I love Dirk, but Dallas beat the Heat by stealing multiple games by going on crazy 3-point streaks. San Antonio has obviously played great but they've also benefitted from some seriously hot shooting. I get the feeling though that the narrative is going to go down that the Heat choked away the bookends of two ill-gained championships.

Pop is absolutely out-coaching everyone, but a huge amount of that is foundation of Pop (and RA Buford) out GMing everyone by giving Pop the coach exactly the pieces he needs to implement what he's trying to do. Their system works because they're so crazy deep because he is able to get himself (and coach players into being) exactly the pieces he needs to fit in what everyone else so that they play like a relentless machine.

Wow. I expected this to be a close series that could've gone either way, much like last year. Now it's looking like the Spurs might blow the Heat out of the water. Miami should feel lucky they weren't swept at this point.

Well at least they avoided this part.

How much of this is Pop outcoaching Spoelstra?

I dunno, it does help that Popovich have much MUCH better role players to go to off the bench and just in general. and that they have simply executed much more brilliantly.

Miami's trap defense has been one of the main reason of their success (other than star power obviously) everyone have know that the way to solve it is to move the ball fast / hard / precisely. but this is the first time we really seen a team that manage to do it so damn well against the Heat and their exceptional talents.

BUT, the thing is that the Spurs MADE those role players. there is not a SINGLE player out side of Tim Duncan on their entire roster that's drafted in the lottery, not ONE, and most of their most effective onces are 2nd round picks! this is just an complete mind boggling degree of both talent identification and development.

So if you ask me is Spolstra doing a lot worse than Pop given what he has to work with? not really, he has a very effective, even special, system out there that his team manage to execute quite brilliantly. but the difference is that the Spurs organization managed to create a monster team without big money FA and even high draft pick is probably the single most amazing feat in this entire era of the NBA.

I mean, Danny Green was cut twice in his first 2 season, it look like he was not going to make it in this league, now he's probably at least the 5th best player on a team that's going to take down a historically great Heat team. You can't even write that in a movie script.

the Spurs organization managed to create a monster team without big money FA and even high draft pick is probably the single most amazing feat in this entire era of the NBA.

An argument could be made that the Spurs are the best run professional sports organization of the last 20 years. Lottery luck in getting Duncan helped, but what they have done with it has been impressive to say the least.

That argument is helped by the simple fact that they're the most successful organization in sports over the last 20 years. If they hold onto this one they'll have won the most championships over that period--five, tied with the Lakers and Yankees--but they've won more consistently than either of those teams. I think the Yankees and Red Wings are the only sports franchises that approach the Spurs' record of being very good every single year over the past 20 (but the Yankees have done so unconstrained by a salary cap, and so did the Red Wings until recently). The Patriots are behind them but in the neighborhood, which is an amazing achievement in the NFL.

I mean, Danny Green was cut twice in his first 2 season, it look like he was not going to make it in this league, now he's probably at least the 5th best player on a team that's going to take down a historically great Heat team.

Historically great? They weren't even the top seed in an LOL conference.

I underrated San Antonio; I didn't think they could shoot this well against other playoff teams. They are getting it done, obviously.

I picked the Spurs. I thought their depth would win the day. I didn't really expect a thorough beatdown though. I'm a bit surprised at how easily the Spurs are just dominating the Heat. Cheese Louise, Kawhi Leonhard is playing Lebron off to a standstill. I did't expect that either.

I mean, part of this is luck. No one shoots 60% from the floor consistently. Parker's knocking down midrange jumpers with a man on him. That's a 40% shot at best.

There's no luck here at all. Parker has shot pretty well but not so well you'd raise your eyebrows. And he's been one of the lowest% shooter the Spurs have. They are shooting well because they're getting a very makeable shot on just about every possession. And the reason they're getting makeable shots is because their passing and ball movement has been so damned good. They have the Heat beaten down and demoralized with their ball movement. And all the running around and chasing to no avail on defense has taken heir legs away and the Heat are lyign tird offense, either settling for long jumpers or throwing up awkward bricks when they take it to he rim.

Historically great? They weren't even the top seed in an LOL conference.

Agreed. 54-28 in a weak conference is not that impressive. There was the consideration that 54-28 didn't reflect their true talent, like many repeat champions they worry less about the regular season as the run goes on, and turn it on for the playoffs. This year they played great offense and mediocre defense, but of course they could just turn on the defensive intensity once the playoffs start, right?

Well, if they have another defensive gear they are out of time to use it.

Evaluating them historically, they can't touch the Russell Celtics, Bird Celtics, Magic Lakers, Jordan Bulls. They will soon be 1-1 against the Duncan Spurs (Lebron will be 1-2). The average Heat team of the last 4 years is about equivalent to the average Spur team of the last 15 years, so Duncan's dynasty is clearly ahead.

While they could always come back stronger next year (maybe with some new additions) and add to their historic resume, right now I would put them in the same tier as:

Getting to 4 consecutive Finals, even only going 2-2, is still damn impressive, regardless of the strength of the conference. They have had 1-2 legitimately tough outs in the EC every year. That, plus the incredible win streak last year, would put them ahead of all but the Kobe/Shaq Lakers from AROM's list among the modern teams, at least for me (I make no judgement on the Wilt/Jerry Lakers, don't have the historical knowledge).

I'm not a keen observer of basketball but I see a lot of you describing the series as a beatdown. I don't disagree. The thing that struck me, watching, is that, from body language*, it looks like LeBron and Wade agree with you, too. They looked utterly defeated pretty early in game 4.

* Yeah, I know, subjective and for all I know the Heat will regroup and turn it around**, but they just looked as down as I've ever seen a team in a major sport title game.

** I am not betting on that or predicting it. Just acknowledging that my knowledge is limited.

On the Wade question, I can't imagine he's dumb enough to opt out. Where else is he getting 20+ million? I'd like to see them break it up, just because that would be more interesting, but I'm guessing they all opt-in, roll it back, and either crawl back to the Finals next year to lose again, or lose in the EC semis or finals.

He's obviously referring to their four-straight finals appearances, two straight titles, and the level of talent of their top three players, not just their performance this year.

Well... OK, but here is the quote in question:

I mean, Danny Green was cut twice in his first 2 season, it look like he was not going to make it in this league, now he's probably at least the 5th best player on a team that's going to take down a historically great Heat team.

It seems obvious to me he's referring to the 2013-14 Heat, as in no way could you say they took down the 2011-14 Heat.

Agreed. 54-28 in a weak conference is not that impressive. There was the consideration that 54-28 didn't reflect their true talent, like many repeat champions they worry less about the regular season as the run goes on, and turn it on for the playoffs.

Right, but... it was the Spurs, not the Heat, that

(a) Played no one more than 30 minutes a game,
(b) Played in a very tough conference, and
(c) Posted the best record in the league.

I think the Heat should take a page from San Antonio. There is no way a Heat team with the Big 3 in the East misses the playoffs. So, ample time off. No 45 minute performances. Crawl into the playoffs, accelerating as they go. They look tired and worn down. Maybe try to unload the older bit players for younger bit players.

I dunno. The 1983 Sixers and 1972 Lakers couldn't repeat, but OTOH both of them were clearly above any of these Miami teams, and in fact were probably among the half dozen greatest single season teams ever. The Heat's main distinction has been making it to the finals for four straight years, but unless they come back this time they'll have fallen short of the Kobe/Shaq Lakers. The other two you mention (the Pistons and the Kobe/Pau Lakers) are better comparisons.

Last night was an example of my much-maligned "killer instinct" comment from a week ago re LeBron (needing a lucky bounce off a must-have miss to Ray Allen to win last year, not even being the top seed in the awful East this year, etc). Maybe the Bulls or the Lakers got their ass kicked in a game like Game 3, came back to make it respectable, and lost - and then it happened even worse in the following game. Frankly, I can't recall that, however.

Players on the Bulls and Lakers were truly frightened of Jordan and Kobe (and Pistons/Isiah). A game like Game 4 wouldn't roll out that way because - well, it couldn't.

If you think the other Heat players are afraid of LeBron - well, I've never seen it, and I sure didn't last night.

I post this now not because "the series is over" - LeBron is the best all-around basketball player I've ever seen, so to ever count him out would be madness. And no, Kobe is not in his class as a player.

But for those who talked themselves into my calling LeBron a choker (not anymore), overrated (no), or any other supposed failing, please focus on what I am talking about instead of what I am not.

It seems obvious to me he's referring to the 2013-14 Heat, as in no way could you say they took down the 2011-14 Heat.

Well, yes and no. When evaluating the quality of the team facing Green and the Spurs in this series, I do think their performance over the last four years is relevant. For instance, I think most people would agree that beating the 2014 Heat like this would be more impressive than beating the 2014 Pacers like this (even if you ignore the Pacers' late season fade). The history and pedigree of this Heat team indicates something about their quality that goes beyond their 2014 record.

On the Wade question, I can't imagine he's dumb enough to opt out. Where else is he getting 20+ million? I'd like to see them break it up, just because that would be more interesting, but I'm guessing they all opt-in, roll it back, and either crawl back to the Finals next year to lose again, or lose in the EC semis or finals.

I don't see any obviously better situations for any of the Big 3. Miami has a good coach and plays in the weaker conference. Indiana is likely looking at a weakened team next season, and everyone else looks at least a season away from seriously threatening the Boys from South Beach.

But I think that the whole argument of teams being built for the regular season but not the post-season is mostly crap, and always have.

It may have been wrong about this particular team, but to completely dismiss it based on the results of one series/playoff would be the equivalent of dismissing the Heat's chances of ever winning after they lost to Dallas. What would be wrong in this case is that the Spurs are only a regular season team, not that regular season teams aren't a thing (counter: the Bulls of the last 10 years). On the other hand...

How much of this is Pop outcoaching Spoelstra?

As far as in game strategy? Some, but I don't think an enormous amount. As far as getting all of his guys ready to play and managing egos throughout the year? Exponentially.

The Spurs have completely broken, neutralized, whatever the Heat's defense. That's great coaching. However, I think a lot of blame has to go to Riley for how the Heat's roster is constructed. Maybe it's the bill coming due for getting the big 3 in the first place; maybe part of it is the wear and tear of 4 straight Finals appearances taking their toll. But the Oden/Beasley gambles failed miserably, and the Heat after LeBron are noticeably worse than last year*. The Heat didn't take any steps that actually improved their roster over last year's slim victory; the Spurs found ways to improve their roster and got further development from some of their young players.

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Can someone explain to me how the Spurs won when their starting PG only had 2 assists (and both of those were in the 4th after the game was already clearly in hand)? /obvioustroll

I've been arguing for this since this squad's inception (not that I'm not alone in this, nor am I necessarily right).

One angle that I haven't really heard from people with the Spurs' play in recent days - they do this sometimes. For all the talk of their stability and consistency and whatnot, they long have periodically had stretches where they ####### kill people. This is one of them.

I don't see any obviously better situations for any of the Big 3. Miami has a good coach and plays in the weaker conference. Indiana is likely looking at a weakened team next season, and everyone else looks at least a season away from seriously threatening the Boys from South Beach.

Oh there are probably several better options for both Bosh and Lebron, depending on how you define "better." Bosh could be the primary scoring option on a bunch of teams. Lebron could be Lebron anywhere, and could do so with younger talent on a number of teams. And don't just limit it to teams with max cap space- nearly any team can find a way to get under the cap if they're desperate to sign Lebron.

But all indications are that these guys really like playing/living in Miami.

Wade has a player option for 21.6M next year. I said in preseason that the only scenario where I could James thinking about bailing Miami is a bad playoff loss, Wade's playing badly in that loss, then opting in--leading to some kind of break between them. Bosh's and James's player options are for 22.1 apiece, BTW.

Wade is going to have to think long and hard if it's worth it for him to opt out of his deal. Being the career-long Heat, he probably has a bit more say in how this offseason goes than the other players, and he might also have the most to lose financially. Whether it's fair or not, he's also flying under the criticism radar and were he to opt in leading LBJ to leave, I think LBJ takes most of the blame for the breakup.

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I have a hard time seeing the Heat winning another game, yet at the same time, I have a hard time seeing the Heat going out so quietly. LeBron can win game 5 on his own - he hasn't had one of those monster games in a while - but I don't think he can win the series. We still don't know what really happened in that Boston/Cleveland series back in the day, but I still think LeBron does everything he can in game 5 and maybe steals that one himself.

Who's the Finals MVP on the Spurs? You can make an argument for any of Parker, Leonard or Duncan.

I think a lot of blame has to go to Riley for how the Heat's roster is constructed. Maybe it's the bill coming due for getting the big 3 in the first place; maybe part of it is the wear and tear of 4 straight Finals appearances taking their toll. But the Oden/Beasley gambles failed miserably, and the Heat after LeBron are noticeably worse than last year*. The Heat didn't take any steps that actually improved their roster over last year's slim victory; the Spurs found ways to improve their roster and got further development from some of their young players.

I left a dangling footnote in there. There's a lot of parallels between the Heat/Spurs series last year and this and the Blackhawks/Kings in the NHL. Like the Spurs, the Kings went out and got better; the Blackhawks lost some contributors and replaced them with lesser talent. The Hawks lost on essentially a fluke, but the gap might only widen next year if the Hawks don't address their weaknesses this offseason. If they rest on "it could have gone either way", it won't be so close next time.

If the Heat win game 5 in San Antonio, they get 6 back home. I know they looked terrible at home but they have to be a little better than even to win a home elimination game. And, as we saw last year, anything can happen in game 7. I know it looks like a beatdown at the moment but if I'm the Spurs, I really want this next one.

Well it hadn't happened to the Heat either. They had an incredible bounce-back record in the playoffs of winning 13 games in a row after a loss.

I'm glad that LeBron has elevated beyond the criticism from talking heads. He scored 19 points in the 3rd quarter and the game went from blow out to bigger blow out. He wisely sat much of the 4th. LeBron is the only thing keeping these games from being 40-50 point laughers.

Leonard is playing great, and is obviously getting a ton more support (and isn't the focal point of the Spurs offense). It just shows how high the standard LBJ is held to that someone, even you, can make this statement with a straight face.

It's going to be really, really hard for him to get a max deal from Chicago. All of the other moves the Bulls would have to make (dumping Gibson and Dunleavy for nothing, amnestying Boozer) are ones the Bulls might find hard to do in time to make a deal possible (and ones they wouldn't make unless Melo was guaranteed to come) and ones they might not want to make and/or are debateable how much they hurt the team. I think there's almost no chance for a S&T that makes any sense.

IOW, it's much more likely they get Love, and even that I don't think is going to happen.

I'm pretty sure many team would take on Gibson or Dunleavy if it doesn't cost them much of anything, they're EXCELLENT role players, especially Dunleavy's contract only runs for 1 year. Gibson's age and length of deal maybe the only slight concern.

I don't mean it would be difficult to accomplish, I meant that the Bulls would probably have to arrange those deals ahead of time while securing some sort of silent verbal from Melo, and that it's a tough choice for the Bulls to make. If the amnesty Boozer, trade Gibson/Dunleavy for nothing, don't bring Mirotic over, they still wouldn't have enough to sign Melo straight up to a max deal - he'd still have to take a cut. The actual cap steps/recruiting they'd have to do concurrently would be difficult to accomplish, especially for a team that has shown a constant lack of creativity and sales acumen.

Wade is going to have to think long and hard if it's worth it for him to opt out of his deal. Being the career-long Heat, he probably has a bit more say in how this offseason goes than the other players, and he might also have the most to lose financially. Whether it's fair or not, he's also flying under the criticism radar and were he to opt in leading LBJ to leave, I think LBJ takes most of the blame for the breakup.

The other guy to watch with that is Udonis Haslem, and he may actually be the one to watch in terms of wondering about under-the-table deals, etc. Haslem has a player option for 4.6M next year, and even given his relationship with the organization and with Wade, giving that up would be a huge sacrifice to ask of him. It would probably have to involve stuff like a 15-year personal services contract with the Heat, some kind of small piece of James' off-court ventures, etc.

And, yes, Riley's roster construction is an issue. The first Big 3 team had a lot of older guys that Riley liked for one reason or another and seemed to be constructed somewhat carelessly. And, as noted by me and other guys, this year's team got nothing out of Oden and Beasley, so they are very thin and creaky.

Who's the Finals MVP on the Spurs? You can make an argument for any of Parker, Leonard or Duncan.

I take Leonard. He's the single most difficult player on their team to replace, and he was the best player in games 3 and 4 (when the series got out of hand).

That said, I agree with the folks that this series isn't over yet. The Spurs are playing great, but a lot of that is these little jitter bugs hitting contested 3s. That can turn. Miami winning game 5 makes it a series again, and they're certainly capable of that.

He hasn't been talked about much, but Splitter has been far, far better this year than last in the finals. Splitter seemed really unsure of what to do when he got the ball and was semi-open at the top of the key last year, and he has been much, much quicker with the ball this year. They're also putting him in less of those situations, partially because Diaw is able to play a similar role.

Miami doesn't have an answer for Boris Diaw. Who thought that was going to be said a couple of years ago.

As much as being made of their offense, I think not enough is being said about San Antonio's defense. When they pulled ahead early in the first half last night, Miami had no plan to get points in bunches. Wade was throwing himself at the rim, or Lebron was taking tough shots as the shot clock expired. We're not seeing Miami creating great open, make-able shots like we're used to seeing. It's been really impressive.

Players on the Bulls and Lakers were truly frightened of Jordan and Kobe (and Pistons/Isiah). A game like Game 4 wouldn't roll out that way because - well, it couldn't.

If you think the other Heat players are afraid of LeBron - well, I've never seen it, and I sure didn't last night.

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You are placing too much emphasis on individual personality in evaluating team performance. The 2008 Lakers season ended with a 39-point loss in Boston; the Phil Jackson era ended in 2011 with a 36-point loss in Dallas. As to Chicago, Jordan was never in the situation of grinding through a 4th consecutive finals, because he retired after each 3Peat, in 1993 and 1998. So, we don't know what would have happened if the Bulls teams had been trying to do what James' team is trying to do. There was a tweet yesterday at ESPN: the Spurs became the first team since the 1987 Lakers to lead consecutive Finals games by 15 points or more at halftime. And the 1987 Lakers were playing...the 1987 Celtics, who were in their 4th consecutive Finals, the only other team since the merger to make four straight Finals until the James Gang.

And, of course, a lot of this is about San Antonio, not Miami. Miami has not been able to disrupt SA's execution and SA is shooting exceptionally well, even for them, posting EFGs of .664 and .636 in Games 3 and 4. Games 3 and 4 have not just been "typical Spurs" although it is being sold that way. Their season EFG% was .537. This is not to say it is just luck; it is a good example of the old Branch Rickey "luck is the residue of design" line. But they have been hitting an unusual number of shots.

Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling's team of lawyers has hired four private investigation firms to dig up "dirt" on the NBA's former and current commissioners and its 29 other owners, a source confirmed to ESPN.com.

The move was earlier reported by The Associated Press, citing a person familiar with Sterling's legal strategy.

Investigators were given a six-figure budget over the next 30 days to examine the league's finances, allegations of previous discriminatory conduct, and compensation to past commissioner David Stern and current commissioner Adam Silver, said the AP source, who spoke Thursday night on condition of anonymity. The person wasn't authorized to talk publicly.

The person said the investigators also are looking into whether other owners made any off-color jokes, or racist or sexist remarks.

"The gloves are off, as they say," the person said. "Have them dig up all the dirt they can find."

I think the Kawhi love is getting a little carried away. He's good, we've known he's good, but being the 3rd or 4th option is a little bit of a different role.

Agreed. He's a fine player, he'll probably be an All-Star a few times. But, he's playing with three HoFs, one of them amongst the top 10 of all time. Much like when Rondo was playing with 3 HoFs, having great teammates and not being the focus of the defense really helps your game. If a team were built with Kawhi being the star, they'd probably be a 6-8 seed.

I post this now not because "the series is over" - LeBron is the best all-around basketball player I've ever seen, so to ever count him out would be madness. And no, Kobe is not in his class as a player.

Ohoh. Queing one of robin's "you're just filled with anti-Laker bias" posts.

Aren't the Finals still 2-3-2 format, or did they change it? If not, game 5 will be in Miami. I could see the Heat pulling out a close one there, but I absolutely can't see them winning 2 straight in San Antonio. I'd be pretty surprised if this series even goes 7, let alone with Miami coming out on top.

That would be the way to bet, for sure. I was just saying that if it doesn't end in 5, the Heat gets a home elimination game. I like their odds in that game. And then 7 in Texas. I would favor the Spurs but not by a whopping margin at that point. Basically, the Spurs need to finish it. I suspect all involved know this. I expect 5 to be a pretty good game.

A few observations of mine from the last few games, a few repeats, a few not:

1. San Antonio is playing absolutely marvelously right now. It is hard to believe this is a team that went to 7 games with the Mavs a few weeks ago. It seems like each win has been easier than the last. Der K is right- they are on a crazy hot stretch right now.

2. As a result of #1, I do not think it is particularly damaging to Miami to have lost to a team playing this well. Obviously, every team wants to win a title when they get this close, but at some point you just have to tip your hat.

3. There is luck involved at every level. The Spurs winning titles spread out like this (if they do) is unique and interesting. It also reflects bad luck in certain years (crazy shots, injuries, whatever) and good luck in others. Nobody wins a title without some luck.

4. To that end, the San Antonio roleplayers are clowning the Miami roleplayers. Leonard, Green, Mills, Diaw, and Splitter are absolutely killing it right now- playing near the peak of their variable ability, all at the same time (god that Diaw pass! That is the play of the year for me so far). Meanwhile, Miami's roleplayers are all simultaneously cratering. Chalmers, Cole, Allen, Lewis, and Battier are all struggling at both ends and it is highlighted by the deficit in performance at those marginal positions. Some of that is age, some is health, some is coaching, etc, etc, etc. There is no all-encompassing explanation for one team's roleplayers cresting together while the other's craters. Again, some of that is luck.

5. Yeah, Wade has sucked. I think Robin's point about Wade not being able to get $20m on the open market for next year is fair. On the other hand, if he can opt out with a promise to get something like 4/60 from Miami (not that I think they necessarily would/should do that), maybe that is appealing to him. The problem is that Miami needs everyone to take so much off the top for anyone taking less to matter that it probably will not happen.

6. Sometimes teams just make a bunch of 3s. That tends to make everything look pretty good.

re: Finals MVP - in my mind, as of now, it has to be Kawhi Leondard. Regardless of how much he benefits from the team around him(*), he's been the best player on the court these past two games, and I don't think Parker nor Duncan was better enough in games one and two to push them ahead of Leonard. (Of course, the series isn't over yet, so things can change.)

That all said, I'm pretty confident Leonard won't get the award, as star power will win out in the end.

(*) Kawhi benefits a TON, is how much. But I think he also has some room to improve as a primary threat.

Basically, the Spurs need to finish it. I suspect all involved know this. I expect 5 to be a pretty good game.

It's going to be brutal for the Heat. They got their ass whipped twice at home, and nothing to hang their hat on going into game 5. Wade is looking like toast and LeBron has to not only be the Heat's leading scorer, rebounder, and playmaker, but he also has to chase around fresh-as-a-daisy Leonard on defense. That's too much to ask of one person.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are going to have the homecourt advantage, riding the emotional wave of a confident crowd, and knowing they have a well-established formula for stomping the Heat and applying the dagger they've waited all year for after last year's loss. Their confidence and energy level is going to be sky high.

On the Wade question, I can't imagine he's dumb enough to opt out. Where else is he getting 20+ million? I'd like to see them break it up, just because that would be more interesting, but I'm guessing they all opt-in, roll it back, and either crawl back to the Finals next year to lose again, or lose in the EC semis or finals.

Well that's hard to say, as others noted, this Spurs team is executing on an amazing level and also shooting out of their minds, what if Popovich and Duncan immediately retires after the finals? I think the one thing most amazing in this series is that Miami's trap defense have been so thoroughly broken by the Heat, that almost never happens. we all though Miami would have another gear defensively, it seems to me they try to turn on that gear, but the Spurs just completely blew them out of the water. I'm not entirely sure if this was Miami vs OKC the situation would be this bad. I'm fairly sure if it's that matchup they can trick Westbrook into killing OKC enough to win as long as they don't get super unlucky.

Who's the Finals MVP on the Spurs? You can make an argument for any of Parker, Leonard or Duncan.

Leonard or Duncan will win, but in terms of "who's changed the Spurs the most this year vs last" it's either Manu (who sucked nearly to Mario Chalmers level last year for all but 1 game.) or Diaw (who's passing is a huge part in making this current offense happen.

More of a baseball nut than basketball, so this is first time in on the basketball thread.

Clicked my TV over to ABC last night to watch Game 4 and all they had on was a re-run of Game 3.

A few questions:

1)LeBron tried to take over the game in the third quarter and put up 19 points, a great quarter. Yet his teammates only added 2 points to that total and, in fact, got outscored in the quarter so LeBron's attempt to take over the game actually extended the Spurs' lead in the blowout rather than bringing Miami back into the game. I can't remember ever seeing that happen before.
Does anyone else recall ever seeing this happen before and what does this signify for Miami's future if it becomes clear that LeBron is no longer capable of taking over a game, i.e., he cannot carry this team?
2)If Miami were to win this series and continue on doing so next year, running to 4 in a row, I don't doubt that LeBron would keep getting extensions with Miami and stay right there for future contracts. But - if they continue folding here in this series and look even worse next year, does he decide it's time to move on? If so, where does he go?
3)San Antonio has just won consecutive road games in the NBA finals by 19 points and 21 points. Has any team ever done that before? Yes, there have been sweeps sometimes so, obviously, there have been teams winning 2 consecutive road games - but by these kinds of margins? I can't remember that happening before.

I can get on board with some of the Kahwi-love. The Spurs aren't in the Finals the last two years without him. Of course, that's true of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker too. Leonard is probably the third-best player on the team, and in terms of overall team value, I don't think the gap between him and Parker is that great. I don't want to sound dismissive of Parker's value -- I'm very high on him.

One of the things that makes Leonard look good is the notion that he may be the second-least-easily-replaceable player on the team -- behind Duncan -- because of all the things he brings to the table. OTOH, he may be an amazing union of Spurs philosophy and physical talent. I think Leonard would be a very very good player elsewhere, but I think the Spurs system is one of the things that helps make him KAHWI!

Edit: As noted before, the Spurs have managed to make Boris Diaw look like an All-Star. If I could sum up the Spurs philosophy it would be "Getting the players that fit into their system, then getting the most out of players that fit into their system."

1. San Antonio is playing absolutely marvelously right now. It is hard to believe this is a team that went to 7 games with the Mavs a few weeks ago. It seems like each win has been easier than the last. Der K is right- they are on a crazy hot stretch right now.

They did that two years ago, crusing to the WCF, blew out the Thunder in game 1 of the WCF, then lost the rest, right?

It hasn't been commented on that much yet but Miami is awfully small. The Spurs can throw a small army of bigs at you. The Heat are using Bosh, who's more of a 3/4, as a 5 and using Lebron, who's more of a 3 than a 4, as a 4. That, and using the corpse of Rashad Lewis as the starting 3, basically guarantees the Heat are goinig to get crushed inside.

I think Leonard would be a very very good player elsewhere, but I think the Spurs system is one of the things that helps make him KAHWI!

This is true in a lot of ways, but I think none bigger than the work they did overhauling his shooting mechanics. He'd be a defensive pitbull anywhere, and not a offensive liability, but a decent portion of what makes him so well-rounded and dangerous is the shooting they've brought out in him.

I think Leonard would be a very very good player elsewhere, but I think the Spurs system is one of the things that helps make him KAHWI!

The Spurs system, because of the emphasis on rapid ball movement and the permission to take the shot if it's there, helps all the Spurs players, but especially the role players who lurk outside like Leonard and Green.

The advanced playoff stats have Leonard 2nd to Duncan in WS and 3rd in WS/48 (behind Splitter, who has played 500 to Leonard's 700 minutes). Ginobili is also ahead in PER, making Leonard 4th. (I left out Joseph who has barely played). I think Duncan is my Finals MVP. He is quiet but has been outstanding on both ends.

2. As a result of #1, I do not think it is particularly damaging to Miami to have lost to a team playing this well.

As always, depends on who you listen to. But assuming they lose, it will mean a few things in terms of blog/watercooler/sports bar/grassroots/MSM narratives:

1. No 3Peat. Jordan did that--twice. James couldn't do it once, even with a handpicked team with two other All-Stars on it.
2. James will drop to 2-3 in the Finals.
3. Remember the intro video back in July '10..."Not two, not three...". This iteration might get another one or two with the right help, but they are going to be 2-for-4 in their first run together.

So, no, it won't be "damaging" in terms of the analytics view of James/Heat, but it will affect the conversation dramatically in a lot of other places.

It hasn't been commented on that much yet but Miami is awfully small. The Spurs can throw a small army of bigs at you. The Heat are using Bosh, who's more of a 3/4, as a 5 and using Lebron, who's more of a 3 than a 4, as a 4. That, and using the corpse of Rashad Lewis as the starting 3, basically guarantees the Heat are goinig to get crushed inside.

It's been talked about quite a bit, both because of the Wade/Diaw matchup and how both teams are playing that, and because Miami went small last year and took advantage of Splitter while this year the opposite has been true.

Again, I don't care about the positional stuff too much, but even though Bosh's game has drifted further away from the basket over the years, I still wouldn't call him a 3 in any form. He's undersized guarding centers, which has been the case since he signed in Miami (and contributed to them losing to Dallas) but Miami has been able to overcome/take advantage of his athleticism compared to other bigs before. It also is the only reason anyone's given Indiana a prayer against Miami the past couple of years. The Spurs are damn near infinitely better than the Pacers on offense, so we're seeing the results of that here. In a less dark timeline/alternate universe, the Bulls' frontcourt combines some of the Spurs' bigs' offensive ability and exceeds the Pacers' bigs' defensive ability and is enough to beat Miami.

"You are placing too much emphasis on individual personality in evaluating team performance. The 2008 Lakers season ended with a 39-point loss in Boston; the Phil Jackson era ended in 2011 with a 36-point loss in Dallas."

I appreciate the well-reasoned response, although my premise is about whether the teams of the other HOFers I mentioned would, in a series expected to be very close, get their asses handed to them a second consecutive time in a series. I'm not even saying they would bounce back from a complete ass-kicking and win, necessarily. Just not get beat down like that again, and so listlessly.

I think elimination games often get completely away from the loser because once they're so far down, it's just difficult to have the drive to keep fighting. Difficult for anyone, even a leader, to stem that particular tide. If it happens in Game 5, that again would be a bit different from the premise I suggested. And sure, reasonable minds can and will differ on that.

. Yeah, Wade has sucked. I think Robin's point about Wade not being able to get $20m on the open market for next year is fair. On the other hand, if he can opt out with a promise to get something like 4/60 from Miami (not that I think they necessarily would/should do that), maybe that is appealing to him.

It's going to be tricky, and what eventually happens will tell us some things about these guys and what their priorities/relationships are, and will also, of course, profoundly affect the league as a whole for the next 2-3 years. No one cares right now, but Wade did play pretty well against Indiana.

The series so far has been reminiscent of Lebron's Cavs losing to Dwight's Magic in 09. Lebron is the only one playing well offensively for his team and the other team is raining down 3's at an ungodly rate.

I appreciate the well-reasoned response, although my premise is about whether the teams of the other HOFers I mentioned would, in a series expected to be very close, get their asses handed to them a second consecutive time in a series. I'm not even saying they would bounce back from a complete ass-kicking and win, necessarily. Just not get beat down like that again, and so listlessly.

I think elimination games often get completely away from the loser because once they're so far down, it's just difficult to have the drive to keep fighting. Difficult for anyone, even a leader, to stem that particular tide. If it happens in Game 5, that again would be a bit different from the premise I suggested. And sure, reasonable minds can and will differ on that.

I think you're assigning the failure of the entire team solely on the leader. From a practical standpoint, what more should LeBron be doing? There's only so much LeBron can do, or be expected to do, about the fact that Rashard Lewis is starting at PF and sucks, that Wade is running out of gas, etc etc. When a team is this physically and tactically overmatched, there's absolutely no intangible or leadership quality/criticism to be made, IMO. You're making qualitative critiques to a quantifiable problem, if that makes any sense.

I have a hard time seeing the Heat winning another game, yet at the same time, I have a hard time seeing the Heat going out so quietly. LeBron can win game 5 on his own - he hasn't had one of those monster games in a while - but I don't think he can win the series.

Agreed, although I think G2 was a "monster game." James certainly may extend the series with a 40/10/10 holy crap game on Sunday, but no, he can't win the series. If Miami is actually going to get this to 7, they need something out of Wade, they need one of their role players to get hot, and they need a couple of SA's role players to cool off. That is a lot to need to happen, but I also am having a hard time picturing Miami simply losing by double-digits again on Sunday and that being that.

Agreed, although I think G2 was a "monster game." James certainly may extend the series with a 40/10/10 holy crap game on Sunday, but no, he can't win the series. If Miami is actually going to get this to 7, they need something out of Wade, they need one of their role players to get hot, and they need a couple of SA's role players to cool off. That is a lot to need to happen, but I also am having a hard time picturing Miami simply losing by double-digits again on Sunday and that being that.

Right? If this were just a random Finals with a random Eastern champ - let's call them the Pacers - I would assume that game 5 would be a beatdown that makes games 3 and 4 look mild. However, I just can't see it, even if it is staring me right in the face.

However, I just can't see it, even if it is staring me right in the face

It sort of makes sense, actually, IMO--Miami has a guy who may well be the greatest player in basketball history, so it is hard to count them out until they have actually been beaten four times, no matter what the trends/numbers say or what happened the last two games.

Also...I am not entirely counting Wade out. I don't think he can do much about his defensive issues--he will just have to hope that the Spurs start missing more often--but I could see him cranking up some O one or two more times. He missed some shots in the paint; some of those may start going down.