Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD had a busy week, between local data and global central banks the pair were rocked back and forth most of the week. The Australian dollar shrugged off weaker-than-expected trade data to hold on to a half-a-US-cent gain made in the wake of a key announcement from Europe’s central bank.

Jobs data in OZ was positive this week and most eco data has been fairly supportive, it is China that is weigh the most on the AUD. This weekend all the data for last month will be released, with hopes that China manufacturing and production will show that the government’s efforts have met with positive results, but the Peoples government seems to be preparing markets for a massive stimulus policy if data prints poor.

The Australian trade balance widened to ‐A556m (beyond expectations of -A300m). The details are disappointing, with both exports and imports falling suggesting that the economy is struggling on several fronts. In addition, exports to China fell 14% from their record high in June; the only encouraging detail was a month‐over‐month increase in exports to most other Asian economies. The recent dramatic drop in iron ore prices is likely to put additional pressure on the Australian trade balance and any further declines will weigh on AUD

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03

00:50

JPY

Capital Spending

7.70%

8.90%

3.30%

02:30

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7%

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2%

Sep. 04

02:30

AUD

Current Account

-11.8B

-12.2B

-13.0B

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index

49.6

50.0

49.8

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ)

0.6%

0.7%

1.4%

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change

-8.8K

5.0K

11.7K

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

201K

140K

173K

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

365K

370K

377K

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3322K

3315K

3328K

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

53.7

52.5

52.6

Sep. 07

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.56B

-0.30B

-0.23B

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls

96K

125K

141K

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours

34.4

34.5

34.4

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

103K

138K

162K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.1080USD on Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9898 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.8067 USD May 25, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

FX Empire - The company, employees, subsidiaries and associates,
are not liable nor shall they be held liable jointly or severally for any loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information provided on this website.The data contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate.

All prices herein are provided by market makers and not by exchanges. As such prices may not be accurate and they may differ from the actual market price.FX Empire bears no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any data within the FX Empire.