Old and new teams resume the contest

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The front benches tell us about the present state of play, not the
result in three years.

To use a footballing metaphor, the Coalition has the look of a
team that has won four flags in a row. The fourth Howard ministry
that was sworn in yesterday is loaded with proven performers. Prime
Minister John Howard had said: "I did not see a case for disturbing
a very strong and a very competent team." He made no changes to his
cabinet and only minor ones to the outer ministry, so some poor
performers survive. Only Danna Vale was dropped. De-Anne Kelly, who
becomes the National Party's first female minister, takes over at
Veterans Affairs. Peter Dutton, the other new minister and, at 33,
the youngest, has a new portfolio, Workforce Participation. Mr
Howard has also acted on two points of policy vulnerability. In the
new Human Services portfolio, Joe Hockey has the job of improving
welfare and support payments. To tackle a looming skills shortage,
Gary Hardgrave has been given the role of Minister for Vocational
and Technical Education and Minister assisting the Prime Minister.
Otherwise, it's steady as she goes for the Coalition.

By contrast, Labor is rebuilding its team and has shed several
former ministers. Its leader until last December, Simon Crean, was
saved only by Mark Latham's intervention. Young, unproven teams can
benefit from retaining a veteran or two. Mr Latham also had to stop
the factional brawling or risk having appointments seen only in
terms of allegiances. The focus fell on the contest for shadow
treasurer until Latham ally Julia Gillard, whose membership of the
Left may have caused unease in business circles, put a shrewd spin
on withdrawing. "What the party needs is a sense that we're locking
in an able team that is balanced across the party," she said. The
need to project balance and inclusiveness, and to restore Labor's
economic management credentials, dictated Mr Latham's allocation of
the key portfolios to two former backers of his rival, Kim Beazley.
The shadow treasury has gone to Wayne Swan and the expanded
portfolio of industry, infrastructure and industrial relations to
Stephen Smith. "Roosters" they may be, but they possess the hunger
and policy credentials to help put Labor back in the contest. The
other key players, Kevin Rudd and Ms Gillard, remain in foreign
affairs and health respectively, where they have performed well.
Jenny Macklin stays on as a low-profile deputy leader.

As with the premier before each football season, the Coalition
starts this term as a clear favourite, but the terms of the contest
over the next three years cannot be predicted with certainty.
Labor's new appointments, and indeed its leader, still have time to
prove themselves. Facing a fourth-term government, the ALP can turn
a fresh start to its advantage - provided it can restore discipline
and self-belief after a nightmarish post-election fortnight. Mr
Howard has wisely rejected predictions of a fifth election win
based simply on having achieved the fourth. Any Coalition
complacency, any failure to live up to promises of continued
prosperity and security, could lead to expectations being
confounded.