SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE OK/TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR RSL S/SWWD TO MAF. CU HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED W OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR S TSTMS WILL INITIATE BY THE END OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AS GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE DESERT SW. STILL...LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST WEAKENING MLCIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS S OF THE KS/OK BORDER.

MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS FROM 20-30 F WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE SPREADS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER/SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO FARTHER N...THIS RISK SHOULD BE WEAK/BRIEF.