This Chart Shows When The Government Is Actually Going To Run Out Of Money

If the debt ceiling isn't raised, the federal government will run
out of money somewhere between Oct. 22 and Nov. 1.

People have been talking a lot about Oct. 17. That's the day the
Treasury Department
expects to exhaust "extraordinary measures" that allow the
government to finance itself without issuing Treasury bonds, such
as borrowing from various government trust funds.

But even when that happens, the federal government will have
about $30 billion in cash left on hand, and every day it will
collect more revenue. That means it will be able to go a few more
days, or possibly as long as two weeks, without missing payments.

The Bipartisan Policy Center
has projected daily cash inflows and outflows and has
narrowed the possible range for the "X date" — the first day
the government can't make all its payments due — as Oct. 22
to Nov. 1.

Most days in late October, the government will be sending out a
little more money than it takes in. But even if we make it all
the way to the end of the month, there's no way we'll be able to
make the approximately $55 billion in payments that are due on
Nov. 1, when Social Security benefits, Medicare provider
payments, active duty military pay and military pensions are all
scheduled to go out.

Of course, that doesn't mean we should let the debt ceiling
crisis run right up to Oct. 22. These figures are just
projections, and the government could be surprised by
unexpectedly low receipts or high payment needs on any given day.
It's like if you kept just a few hundred dollars in your checking
account — you'd risk bouncing checks.

And the failure to raise the debt ceiling is already causing a
modest rise in interest rates, which means higher borrowing costs
every time the Treasury rolls over outstanding bonds. Last time
we made this mess, in 2011, BPC estimates that unnecessarily
higher interest rates cost taxpayers $18.9 billion. The costs
this time would likely be higher as there's 17% more debt
outstanding than two years ago.

But those costs pale in comparison to the potential costs of a
financial crisis if the federal government actually misses a
payment. It's just one more reason Congress should stop screwing
around and pass a clean debt limit increase.