Aaron Bruski

Offseason Beat

NBA Lockout Update

I once had a boss that once said that and a lot of similar things, kind of like Joe Pesci on crack, but the words make a ton of sense. Players fight to get to the top, and players that are at the top lose their fire. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but it’s something. Here I’m going to take a look at younger guys with an upward arrow next to their name.

Rudy Gay has all the talent and athleticism in the world, and shoulder concerns and a crowded situation will probably scare owners away. LaMarcus Aldridge was a first or second round talent last season (9-cat/8-cat), but he didn’t even make the All Star team. He could fly under the radar. Though he made the All Star team, ditto Al Horford.

I warned folks about Eric Gordon’s wrist injury, but surely there were those that were burned last season. He turned a corner in real life, but didn’t in fantasy. There’s value there. David Lee’s contract sucks but he’s a hard worker in a great situation. Chris Bosh was everybody’s whipping boy, but he could easily be given a heavier workload to re-establish his authority and also to keep the season light on options 1A and 1B.

A bust last year, Tyreke Evans could also be undervalued in this year’s drafts. I’m out of Sacramento and the reports aren’t just good, they’re great. To me, there was more going on than just his foot last season, but as long as he’s at the right weight I’m optimistic. Serge Ibaka has the chance at a breakthrough season but Scott Brooks’ constant misuse of him (and others) might leave folks wondering where he stands this year.

Speaking of Russell Westbrook, everybody’s favorite scapegoat is heading toward a max-contract and only has the entire world to prove wrong following last year’s playoffs. It’s scary to think that he’s still learning the point guard position. Combining experience and slowly improved shooting with the elite physical advantages he has will be a thrill to watch.

And no, Scott Brooks’ vanilla offense won’t be an issue when teams aren’t game-planning for them in a seven-game series. NBA scouts and executives decried their playoff offense as not just bad, but embarrassing. Westbrook took some bad shots no doubt, and the 22-year old lost his cool at times. But holding that against him when he was carrying out his coach’s orders and executing a non-existent game plan was just a wee bit misguided.

Holding it against him in fantasy leagues this year will be done to your own detriment. Consider thyself warned. And if Scott Brooks doesn’t show better in this year’s playoffs, no amount of writers seeking to justify or rationalize their 2009-10 Coach of the Year selection will be able to save him.

Joakim Noah has had tastes of high-level basketball, but not nearly enough to satisfy his demands at this point. Jrue Holiday was slightly derailed by point-forward Andre Iguodala, but who thinks he won’t be better with another year under his belt? Rajon Rondo is a bit of an injury concern, but he’s in the prime of his career and approaches the game with KG-like intensity. He has plenty of doubters to prove wrong himself. Brandon Jennings is another young talent with nowhere to go but up. He can’t shoot any worse, right? Dorell Wright came out of nowhere (for some), and has more chance of improving than regressing in Golden State’s uptempo offense. Mike Conley proved that he belonged in the club, particularly after last year’s playoffs.

John Wall was a highlight reel this summer, but his rookie season was a mixed bag. In 8-cat leagues he had a fourth round per-game value, but dipped to seventh round cumulative value due to injuries that cost him 13 games. In 9-cat leagues he fell to tenth round value on a cumulative basis. His shooting in general (41.0/29.6/76.6) and his 3.8 turnovers per game were what held him down, but I’d be willing to bet that he improves straight across the board. He’s a special talent that won’t be undervalued, but he won’t be so overvalued that he cannot be targeted.

And how high can Blake Griffin and Kevin Love go? Love was a first or second round talent depending on format, while Griffin ranged between fourth and seventh round value. Asking Love to improve on the 20 and 15 he got every night is probably a bit much, but theoretically he could get some more assists passing out the corners in Rick Adelman’s offense. With such a high bar to meet, however, will he be able to meet it with a new coach and a log-jam of talent in the frontcourt? I certainly wouldn’t pooh-pooh the idea.

Griffin is a different beast. Free throws and a lack of blocks, steals, poor field goal percentage, and high turnovers are all culprits. I see all of those areas improving for a number of reasons, with none as important as him settling down and the Clippers starting to resemble a real basketball team. As they improve, he won’t need to take as many spinning, back-to-the-basket flip shots, and the like. His free throw mechanics are actually better than most who struggle shooting free throws, suggesting he has hope. He’ll learn to be more aggressive without fouling. And with better shot selection he’ll cut down on the turnovers. Griffin is the ultimate scoring system fantasy player – adjust accordingly.

As always, your strategy is going to come down to average draft positions and your ability to maximize value throughout the draft. Some of these guys could be too expensive to justify picking them up, but they’re among those that I’ll be looking at first when ADP reports start to gain traction.

What’s the opposite of poor, hungry, and driven?

Rich, full, and lazy? I’m sure there’s an Eddy Curry joke in there somewhere. But let’s broaden the point and simply look at players on the downside of their careers, fantasy or otherwise. They range from elite fantasy contributors to all sides of the fantasy spectrum – but the common thread is that their best days have come and gone. The only way you’ll want to target them is if the risk creates an overreaction in the market place dropping their ADP to a justifiable position. More times than not, though, people can’t get enough of the name value.

Manu Ginobili is just a couple of years from retiring. He, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan were all a mess with Gregg Popovich caring little about the regular season. What in the name of Ginobili’s bald spot is going to make things better this year?

Kevin Garnett is an example of somebody that outproduced his draft position, finishing with first or second round value no matter how you sliced it. Limping down the court for the last two years, his contributions across statistical categories pushed him up the rankings. Situations like his are going to be the exception and not the rule, but versatility and not being a killer in any one category can go a far way if you’re trying to find value in this group.

Consider Elton Brand a poor man’s KG in this respect, as he surprised everybody with second or third round value. Is betting on two years of health too much to ask? I’ll be going with ‘yes.’

Paul Pierce and Ray Allen seem ageless, but you have to wonder when Doc Rivers will start operating from the same playbook as Popovich does in San Antonio. Rivers has been known to play it safe with injuries, but there’s still a bit of a ‘play through injury’ credo that exists in the Celtics camp. I’m betting Rivers plays it more safely than he ever has with all of them, including Rajon Rondo.

Pau Gasol is 31 years old and has barking hamstrings. Andrew Bynum is 23 years young and has iffy knees to go with a mean streak that should help him most of the time, but gives him a little bit of a knucklehead factor, too. Ironically, it could be 31-year old Lamar Odom that picks up the slack if either go down, but are you going to bet that he replicates last year’s fourth and fifth round value? I’ll do that as soon as his wife stops rotting human brains.

Pick your poison, but high-end older and injury-prone teams are going to hurt fantasy owners more often than not

To you and me, this lockout makes no sense. To the passing fan that doesn’t read up on the sport, it seems downright idiotic. Okay, it’s idiotic to all of us, but this is the business we have chosen.

The NBA owners and players met along with a federal mediator for 16 rollicking hours on Tuesday and ended their meeting at 2 a.m on Wednesday. They’re set to meet at 10 a.m (Wednesday), which runs right up against the NBA Board of Governors meeting later in the day. That meeting is actually a back-to-back set concluding on Thursday.

All of this sits against the backdrop of a lockout in its 112th day, where David Stern and his owners have put the squeeze on the players in a way never seen before in negotiations like this. I’m not going to discuss who is right and who is wrong here in this format, because frankly, 99 percent of you don’t care.

Make no mistake; this entire exercise is a game of leverage – no more and no less.

Nobody believes the players have any leverage here, with too many rank and file that just aren’t willing to lose money by missing a season. They’re already cracking, and I’m not just talking about JaVale McGee’s comments. There is a steady stream of information from reliable sources both on and off the record that suggests there are players that just want to cut a deal.

Conversely, there are too many owners that actually want to lose games. As they would say, it makes sense for them to so. But mostly they want to break the union, so missing games helps them to that goal. All the while David Stern is warning the players at every chance he can get, echoing through whatever media outlet will have him, ‘the deal is going to get worse, save yourself while you can.’

At this point, if the players believe Stern (and why not, most believe that he’s willing to cancel at least a year of basketball), they must have specific objectives that they think they are satisfying with every day they don’t take Stern’s last, best offer.

I’m not even sure these objectives are in the category of ‘we won’t budge if we don’t get our way,’ but rather in the ‘we’ve come this far let’s at least try’ variety.

A federal mediator’s involvement was a necessary step, and one whose non-binding authority is mandated by law in a loose sort of way. But really this is about Stern’s threats and whether or not each successive edict strikes the final blow to the players’ resolve. The mediator’s involvement merely formalized the process, giving the talks an optimal chance of success, but really this is about two entities constantly checking with themselves.

Are we still cool? Has anybody freaked out yet? Okay, let’s proceed.

There’s no question where the owners are on that scale. They’re willing to hold the line for a very long time. The players on the other hand, have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Their deal isn’t getting better anytime soon.

My advice to the players – lose on this CBA and live to fight another day. Get the best deal that you can and tell everybody frankly, we were underprepared and we lost. We hired a PR firm with a clip-out coupon for an hour of free consultation on its website to handle our billion dollar negotiation, and got beat by David Stern at every turn. Let them know that next time, you’ll be bringing your A-game.

Like many have said, the owners are up by 40 points at the end of the fourth quarter and the union keeps fouling. There comes a point in time where it’s time to get on the plane and head to your next game.

So in keeping with the theme of having more questions than answers, here are just some of the things that I am thinking about in this cloud of lockout fever.

LeBron or Durant – Am I really going to have to pick between these guys?

It’s a star’s league, and these are arguably the two biggest stars the league will have for the next 5-7 years. Unlike football where we largely divorce ourselves from players’ personalities for numerous reasons, I really wonder how much LeBron’s devil ears and Durant’s halo are going to impact draft day ADP.

On the court, they couldn’t be closer in terms of performance last year. LeBron edged out Durant in non-turnover leagues, while otherwise Durant got the nod. At the end of the day, Doctor A and I both named James to be Rotoworld’s fantasy MVP, and he got the nod because he helped out in more categories and played an extra game. It was that close. I wouldn’t have lost any sleep had we gone the other way.

They are my distinctive top-tier this season, as cartilage issues in Chris Paul’s knee have me scared enough to keep him out of such talks.

As we go forward, I doubt we see consensus on who the No. 1 pick should be. Perhaps the tie-breaker is turnovers, as LeBron (3.6 tpg) handles the ball more than Durant (2.8 tpg), but the spread in value was so small last year that drafters will go with some other metric. One can argue that both will be hungry, that both have a lot to prove, and both will operate in similar systems throughout next year. Durant has shown flashes of improvement in his game all summer, but we’d be dumb to count out similar improvements from LeBron. Dwyane Wade could see more time off as he gets up there in age, whereas Durant could take the ball out of Russell Westbrook’s hands a bit more this year. To me, this is a pick that will be made as much with gut as it is with statistical glory.

I want guys with PH.D.s (Poor, Hungry, and Driven)

I once had a boss that once said that and a lot of similar things, kind of like Joe Pesci on crack, but the words make a ton of sense. Players fight to get to the top, and players that are at the top lose their fire. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but it’s something. Here I’m going to take a look at younger guys with an upward arrow next to their name.

Rudy Gay has all the talent and athleticism in the world, and shoulder concerns and a crowded situation will probably scare owners away. LaMarcus Aldridge was a first or second round talent last season (9-cat/8-cat), but he didn’t even make the All Star team. He could fly under the radar. Though he made the All Star team, ditto Al Horford.

I warned folks about Eric Gordon’s wrist injury, but surely there were those that were burned last season. He turned a corner in real life, but didn’t in fantasy. There’s value there. David Lee’s contract sucks but he’s a hard worker in a great situation. Chris Bosh was everybody’s whipping boy, but he could easily be given a heavier workload to re-establish his authority and also to keep the season light on options 1A and 1B.

A bust last year, Tyreke Evans could also be undervalued in this year’s drafts. I’m out of Sacramento and the reports aren’t just good, they’re great. To me, there was more going on than just his foot last season, but as long as he’s at the right weight I’m optimistic. Serge Ibaka has the chance at a breakthrough season but Scott Brooks’ constant misuse of him (and others) might leave folks wondering where he stands this year.

Speaking of Russell Westbrook, everybody’s favorite scapegoat is heading toward a max-contract and only has the entire world to prove wrong following last year’s playoffs. It’s scary to think that he’s still learning the point guard position. Combining experience and slowly improved shooting with the elite physical advantages he has will be a thrill to watch.

And no, Scott Brooks’ vanilla offense won’t be an issue when teams aren’t game-planning for them in a seven-game series. NBA scouts and executives decried their playoff offense as not just bad, but embarrassing. Westbrook took some bad shots no doubt, and the 22-year old lost his cool at times. But holding that against him when he was carrying out his coach’s orders and executing a non-existent game plan was just a wee bit misguided.

Holding it against him in fantasy leagues this year will be done to your own detriment. Consider thyself warned. And if Scott Brooks doesn’t show better in this year’s playoffs, no amount of writers seeking to justify or rationalize their 2009-10 Coach of the Year selection will be able to save him.

Joakim Noah has had tastes of high-level basketball, but not nearly enough to satisfy his demands at this point. Jrue Holiday was slightly derailed by point-forward Andre Iguodala, but who thinks he won’t be better with another year under his belt? Rajon Rondo is a bit of an injury concern, but he’s in the prime of his career and approaches the game with KG-like intensity. He has plenty of doubters to prove wrong himself. Brandon Jennings is another young talent with nowhere to go but up. He can’t shoot any worse, right? Dorell Wright came out of nowhere (for some), and has more chance of improving than regressing in Golden State’s uptempo offense. Mike Conley proved that he belonged in the club, particularly after last year’s playoffs.

John Wall was a highlight reel this summer, but his rookie season was a mixed bag. In 8-cat leagues he had a fourth round per-game value, but dipped to seventh round cumulative value due to injuries that cost him 13 games. In 9-cat leagues he fell to tenth round value on a cumulative basis. His shooting in general (41.0/29.6/76.6) and his 3.8 turnovers per game were what held him down, but I’d be willing to bet that he improves straight across the board. He’s a special talent that won’t be undervalued, but he won’t be so overvalued that he cannot be targeted.

And how high can Blake Griffin and Kevin Love go? Love was a first or second round talent depending on format, while Griffin ranged between fourth and seventh round value. Asking Love to improve on the 20 and 15 he got every night is probably a bit much, but theoretically he could get some more assists passing out the corners in Rick Adelman’s offense. With such a high bar to meet, however, will he be able to meet it with a new coach and a log-jam of talent in the frontcourt? I certainly wouldn’t pooh-pooh the idea.

Griffin is a different beast. Free throws and a lack of blocks, steals, poor field goal percentage, and high turnovers are all culprits. I see all of those areas improving for a number of reasons, with none as important as him settling down and the Clippers starting to resemble a real basketball team. As they improve, he won’t need to take as many spinning, back-to-the-basket flip shots, and the like. His free throw mechanics are actually better than most who struggle shooting free throws, suggesting he has hope. He’ll learn to be more aggressive without fouling. And with better shot selection he’ll cut down on the turnovers. Griffin is the ultimate scoring system fantasy player – adjust accordingly.

As always, your strategy is going to come down to average draft positions and your ability to maximize value throughout the draft. Some of these guys could be too expensive to justify picking them up, but they’re among those that I’ll be looking at first when ADP reports start to gain traction.

What’s the opposite of poor, hungry, and driven?

Rich, full, and lazy? I’m sure there’s an Eddy Curry joke in there somewhere. But let’s broaden the point and simply look at players on the downside of their careers, fantasy or otherwise. They range from elite fantasy contributors to all sides of the fantasy spectrum – but the common thread is that their best days have come and gone. The only way you’ll want to target them is if the risk creates an overreaction in the market place dropping their ADP to a justifiable position. More times than not, though, people can’t get enough of the name value.

Manu Ginobili is just a couple of years from retiring. He, Tony Parker, and Tim Duncan were all a mess with Gregg Popovich caring little about the regular season. What in the name of Ginobili’s bald spot is going to make things better this year?

Kevin Garnett is an example of somebody that outproduced his draft position, finishing with first or second round value no matter how you sliced it. Limping down the court for the last two years, his contributions across statistical categories pushed him up the rankings. Situations like his are going to be the exception and not the rule, but versatility and not being a killer in any one category can go a far way if you’re trying to find value in this group.

Consider Elton Brand a poor man’s KG in this respect, as he surprised everybody with second or third round value. Is betting on two years of health too much to ask? I’ll be going with ‘yes.’

Paul Pierce and Ray Allen seem ageless, but you have to wonder when Doc Rivers will start operating from the same playbook as Popovich does in San Antonio. Rivers has been known to play it safe with injuries, but there’s still a bit of a ‘play through injury’ credo that exists in the Celtics camp. I’m betting Rivers plays it more safely than he ever has with all of them, including Rajon Rondo.

Pau Gasol is 31 years old and has barking hamstrings. Andrew Bynum is 23 years young and has iffy knees to go with a mean streak that should help him most of the time, but gives him a little bit of a knucklehead factor, too. Ironically, it could be 31-year old Lamar Odom that picks up the slack if either go down, but are you going to bet that he replicates last year’s fourth and fifth round value? I’ll do that as soon as his wife stops rotting human brains.

Pick your poison, but high-end older and injury-prone teams are going to hurt fantasy owners more often than not

Amare knocked himself out of the playoffs last season by tweaking his back on a warmup dunk. He says he’s back to normal and he looked freakish athletically in the last exhibition game he played. But can you commit a first-round pick to a guy whose odometer makes him prone to ticky-tack injuries like that? I’m leaning no.

Steve Nash may always have the ability to put together a ‘shock game’ in which he runs up numbers like a pinball machine. More now than ever his minutes are going to be monitored. Somebody else can have the name value.

Dwyane Wade turned in anywhere between a No. 4 overall and No. 8 overall rank last season in 8- and 9-cat leagues and played in 76 games. Is he capable of doing that again? Without a doubt. Do the Heat have every incentive to keep his minutes down? Yes. More so than LeBron, Wade’s long-term health will be monitored by everybody from Micky Arison to Erik Spoelstra. I foresee 2-3 minutes getting shaved off of his nightly load, and major injuries aside, I’d think the Heat want to see him in the 72-76 games played range. After LeBron and Durant are off the board, I think we’re going to see a lot of fluidity in the first round. Wade is a first-round asset, but we’ll see one or more of Stephen Curry, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Kevin Love go ahead of him in drafts, not to mention one or more of the big name guys like Chris Paul, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Dwight Howard jumping him, as well. Wade will be on the top-end of this list, but how far he falls will determine whether or not I’ll be drafting him. This, of course, means I’m not likely to have him on any of my teams. I can’t see taking him ahead of Curry and Rose, and then Love, Westbrook, and CP3 are right there in the mix.

Kobe Bryant fell out of the top-5 of ESPN’s audacious NBA rankings, but his name has been bigger than his fantasy game for some time. That’s not changing.

And what about the man of the hour, Dirk Nowitzki? We’ve called him the most boring first round draft pick a couple of years running now. You can bet his draft stock goes up with last year’s championship performance, even if greater logic says that he has to be adorned with the kid gloves this year.

For the most part, I don’t tend to own a lot of players from this type of a group. Unlike the major risks in the preceding group, however, owners don’t want to bury their heads in the sand on these guys. If the price is right, make the move. Sometimes the shiny new toy isn’t ready to knock off ‘old reliable.’

To Dwight or not to Dwight, that is the question

Dwight Howard shot a predictable 59.3 percent from the foul line last season, but he still managed to grab second and third round value in 8- and 9-cat leagues last season. He even managed low-end first round value on a cumulative basis in 8-cat leagues. This was due to pjumps in scoring average (18.3 to 22.9), rebounding (13.2 to 14.1), and steals (0.9 to 1.4). He blocked fewer balls (2.8 to 2.4) and lost two points on his field goal shooting (61.2 to 59.3), but the result was about a half-round jump in value.

What does this mean? Well, for starters, he’s not as radioactive as many will believe despite his free throw and turnover limitations. And while I’m generally not a fan of punting categories because it restricts your draft strategy on the whole against better drafters – building a punting strategy around him makes as much sense as ever. Without punting, I’d prefer to take him in the middle of the second round of 8-cat drafts, but I doubt he lasts that long. Somebody always reaches for him.

And if you’re in a league that doesn’t penalize free throw shooting and turnovers, I can make an easy argument that he should be the No. 1 overall pick. Aside from the lack of depth at the center position, he is simply too productive to overlook.

So where are we now?

We’re waiting just like you guys for the results from today’s meetings. Our draft guide is being produced but we’re forced to take a wait-and-see approach in many ways, as the lockout will have a significant impact on just about everything. Whenever the sides agree there should be about two weeks from the time of the handshake agreement to the start of free agency, as lawyers from both sides will finalize the rules that everybody will abide by.

In this short time, there will be mass confusion among all parties as to what they should be doing. There could be mass movement of players from team to team, or the new rules could restrict player movement. It’s just too hard to tell. Throw into the mix the restrictions that are about to be imposed in terms of contract length, contract amount, total salary cap, exceptions, and more – it’s a total mess.

Significant cap changes aren’t going to be imposed in Year 1, or at least that is my educated guess, but a low salary cap could crush teams like Miami who are front-loaded with stars. You get the point.

As for the lockout itself, I predicted back in August that the season would start on December 5th, and that date still sounds about as good as any right now. I selected the date because it gives the NBA three weeks to get the kinks out in advance of its showcase games on Christmas. David Stern and his owners know the symbolic significance of that date, and it was sort of reaffirming to me that Stern used Christmas in one of his threats.

That said, there could be a handshake agreement as soon as today and, conversely, while it’s unlikely the sides could destroy the season. Anybody that says they know what’s going to happen is kidding themselves. It’s mass confusion out there.

This year, more than years’ past, the good fantasy owners are going to separate themselves by being ready in advance of the impending shotgun wedding. Figuring out who is going to be helped and hurt by the lockout, and staying abreast of the free agency moves will be key during this stretch. Our draft guide will change with each development, and the blurbs will be the backbone for everything that we do. Just know that when they say ‘go,’ things are going to get crazy. For you ringers out there, this should spell opportunity.

Aaron Bruski has covered hoops for Rotoworld since 2008 and has competed in national fantasy sports competitions for nearly two decades. In 2015 he was named FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year. You can also find his work over at ProBasketballTalk, where he received critical acclaim for his in-depth reporting of the Kings' relocation saga. Hit him on Twitter at Aaronbruski.Email :Aaron Bruski