Age and Expectations

Many of the Cavs’ problems, and our problems as fans, stem from expectations we formed before this season started. Entering the fourth year of rebuilding since the LeBrocalypse, many of us thought the Cavs were poised to become a playoff team or even a winning team (which aren’t the same things in the Eastern Conference). The source of those expectations came from Kyrie Irving’s preternatural development as a young point guard. Buoying that hope: a handful of top 4 picks, two more top 20 picks, and the accumulation of solid veterans. At last June’s draft lottery, Dan Gilbert expressed the expectation of “not being back,” to the lottery after the 2013-2014 season.

But so far, the Cavaliers have failed to live up to most expectations. It’s not just the losing. It’s how they’re losing: blowout losses, mounds of turnovers, horrible shot selection, and half-assed effort and execution on both ends of the floor. What’s causing this? Could it be that that these guys just can’t play together? Is Mike Brown a lousy coach? Do they just stink? Could it be that many of the problems with effort, consistency, and chemistry have stemmed from players failing to live up to their own expectations and those of Cavaliers management and ownership? Too many Uncle Drew commercials? Space aliens? The answer is more likely that we all had really ridiculous expectations, and our resentments are causing us to miss the reasons the Cavs are bad — because we really should have seen this coming.

Age and Winning

If you go strictly by the number of games played, Dion Waiters is still a rookie. Kyrie Irving is smack in the middle of his second year. Tristan Thompson hasn’t quite finished his sophomore season. 74, 135, and 157: their respective games played count: they are all still very inexperienced by NBA standards. If the Cavaliers are following the Thunder model of team building, then everyone knows that the Thunder had an unbelievable 27 game improvement from year two to year three after drafting Kevin Durant. But they also had the unbelievable good fortune to draft players that developed immediately and the good fortune to stay healthy in that time. But, Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka are the exceptions, not the rule when it comes to player development.

Every player develops at his own pace. For instance, James Harden didn’t start playing well till about 100 games into his career, and he didn’t start playing really well till about 140 games in. Mike Conley? 210 games and three seasons before he posted a PER above 15. Joe Johnson? 250 games and three seasons before he posted an over 15 PER. Those players were on the late end of the development curve. We don’t yet know what the curve is for KI, TT, and Dion.

Furthermore, the Cavs are an unbelievably young team. Youth, in the NBA, is an anathema to winning. The effective age of the Cavs is roughly 24.9 years old. (Age is defined as the player’s age on Dec 31st of the given season) . Effective age is the average team age of the Cavs weighted for minutes played. Kevin Pelton, in 2009, wrote a paper on the correlation between effective age and winning percentage, and came to the conclusion that from 1979-2008, the correlation between team age and winning percentage is .515, which is “fairly high.” ] BlazersEdge studied this trend as well. Based on this graph from their research, judging by effective age alone, the Cavs would project out to about a 35% winning percentage, or 29 23 wins, which is exactly the pace they are currently on.

The Cavs don’t just weight young. The arithmetic average age of the players on the team is 24.2, and the Cavs lead the league in the number of players on their roster aged 18-23. They only have two players over 30. Clearly, the relative youth of the team needs to be taken into effect when evaluating the problems. The Cavs, for the last several years, have fielded teams where a large portion of the team was made up of D-League level players. They have mostly replaced those players with youngsters. A more balanced approach to ages of this team may have been helpful, particularly among the bigs and the wings, where a more experienced mentor might have been a good idea. Varejao, Bynum, and Miles don’t exactly seem like the great communicators. But the team the Cavs have is the one we’re stuck with, and anyone who studies age and the NBA shouldn’t be surprised.

What should the Cavs do?

In the words of Douglas Adams. Don’t Panic! A bad trade, or some other ill-conceived move is the last thing this team needs. There are lots of rumors floating that the Cavs have been calling around, gauging the trade market for Dion Waiters in light of the events described in the recent Chris Broussard article. The Cavs have denied that they are shopping him. The likes of Iman Shumpert, Evan Turner, and Luol Deng have been discussed.

First, Iman Shumpert is not a good player. He’s been a bit of a headcase in New York and he can’t shoot. Shump recently posted the first game in 3 years where a player played 20 minutes and didn’t post a point, rebound, steal, or block. No thanks. Evan Turner, is a slightly above average player with a 16 PER, who plays below average defense, and whose scoring numbers are massively inflated because Philly plays at a ridiculous pace. Some idiot will give him $12 million dollars next year, and regret it two months after the season starts. Luol Deng is a nice player, but why would you give up Dion for a player you can sign in the off-season? Additonally, he makes $15 million dollars. He’s not going to settle for less than that in an extension without testing the market, first. Is Luol Deng worth $15 million a year?

The trade value of anyone else on the team besides Irving is questionable, at best. Yes, the Cavs do have a lot of future draft picks they can leverage, but they should not use them unless they can get a player that can clearly help them over the next two to three years. Until that deal comes along, we — Chris Grant and Dan Gilbert included — should all be patient.

While many threw their hands in the air over Wednesday’s Miami loss, I was incredibly encouraged by the amount of fight and poise the Cavs displayed. Yes, they still had their turnover problems, but the effort was consistent throughout the game. Improvement never happens instantly. It’s a grind. Before you can learn to play hard for four quarters in order to win, you have to learn to play hard for four quarters even when you’re probably going to lose. There’s no shame in playing hard and losing to the best team in basketball.

The Irving/Waiters Conundrum

Young NBA teams often fail. One reason is because they don’t realize the amount of work and experience it takes to be consistently good. Dion has been very inconsistent in his effort and focus at times this year and last, but Dion Waiters was a revelation Wednesday. If he can play with that kind of intensity and focus every game, then there’s no way Cleveland should trade him right now. Dion has not regressed. He has picked up some habits that are conducive to winning this season. While his field goal percentage is down last year, his three point percentage is almost 10% higher than it was last year. He has become an effective catch-and-shoot player, and he is getting to the free throw line. What limits Dion is awful mid-range shots off the dribble (a virus running rampant through the Cavs guards right now) and taking bad angles on drives. But as the game against Miami proves, when he can limit those tendencies, he has the potential to be great.

What I have loved about Dion recently, and what has caused a rift in the Cavs organization, has been Dion (allegedly) calling out Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson on playing “buddy ball” and Kyrie being a ball hog. As Jason Lloyd painfully pointed out, “The Cavs’ struggles haven’t trickled down to Irving; rather Irving’s struggles have trickled down to everyone else.” A “slumping” Irving is still a 19 PER player who scores 21 points a game, but part of what is ailing the Cavs is that Kyrie needs a Yoda to help him what he’s learned over the last two years. Waiters is right that Irving isn’t held to the same standard that everyone else on the team is held to. I’ve rarely seen Irving pulled out of a game for lazy defense or stupid turnovers. Under Byron Scott, Kyrie Irving was allowed to develop some incredibly bad habits.

Irving gets away with bad pick and roll play too: over-dribbling, not passing to the roll man, taking too many mid-rangers, and executing at bad angles. He tries to score with his handle too much, and tends to look for the home-run pass instead of the easy pass. And yes, I’ve seen Kyrie Irving freezing out Dion, as well as other Cavs. Kyrie’s biggest offensive problem is that he seems incredibly flustered by the double teams and shading that teams are running at him. A good point guard loves to see a double team, because it means someone will be open. That double team should allow the Cavs to get easy scoring opportunities. Kyrie Irving need to work on making that happen. Teams “ice” Kyrie because they know the Cavs will not swing the ball to the weak side quickly enough to make them pay. Kyrie Irving is a great scorer. But he’s still not very good at winning basketball games. Byron Scott did a pretty bad job of teaching Kyrie how to play point guard.

This whole “buddy ball” fiasco could be a good thing. Now that the fallout from the incident isn’t festering, the team can move past it. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone from the team leaked this story just to clear the air and motivate everyone. Against Miami, there was a concerted effort to engage with each other and pass to each other from Kyrie and Dion. It was the best chemistry they’d had all year. Hopefully, both of them realize there’s no reason they can’t play with each other. With Waiters’ and Kyrie’s catch-and-shoot prowess, they both need to realize that it shouldn’t be hard to play off each other, it should be easy if they move, pass, and shoot when they’re open.

A note on Wild Thing

The Cavs’ problems aren’t limited to Kyrie and Dion. Tristan Thompson has been maddeningly inconsistent in effort and effectiveness. Anthony Bennet’s problems are well documented. No one seems to know how to play with Bynum. But Cleveland’s biggest offensive problem revolves around the fact that they’re not putting the ball in hands of their best offensive player often enough. Anderson Varejao is having a fantastic year. He’s shooting better than he ever has in his career. He’s 50% on the year on jumpers (not including end of the shot clock 3 pointers), 57% at the basket. Furthermore, he’s got the lowest turnover rate per minute on the team, and by far the best assist to turnover ratio at just over 2:1. The fact that Tristan Thompson’s usage is at 17.9% and Varejao’s is at 13.2% gives some credence to Dion’s supposed “buddy ball” accusations. Anderson Varejao has not “lost a step” (sorry John), he’s simply not getting the ball nearly enough. While those mad dives to the basket on the P/R are not as prevalent this year, it is more the (poor) design of the offense that is causing the problems, and not Andy. The Cavs don’t pass the ball when guys roll, so the bigs often settle for pick and pops instead of pick and rolls. Fortunately, Andy is still effective at both. The Cavs need to consider moving Tristan Thompson to the bench and starting Andy with Andrew Bynum. It would fix the spacing problem that TT has with Bynum, and allow for high/low action that Tristan is currently incapable of executing. Andy is among the best high post players in the league. They need to get him the ball there.

Andy’s shot chart is one of the few offensive bright spots

Conclusions

There’s nothing to do but wait. We’ll know more after this weekend’s games against Boston and Chicago. Hopefully, the Cavs learn they can’t only “bring it” when they’re on national T.V. But to make comic sans decisions now, would be folly. At the very least, we and Dan Gilbert need to give the Cavs until the beginning of January before blowing anything up. Why then? Dec. 15th is the first major date in the NBA. It’s the date that free agents signed during the summer of 2013 can be traded. The Next date, January 6th is when teams can sign players to 10 day contracts, and January 10th is the date that all NBA contracts become guaranteed (or the day that Andrew Bynum is sure he’s making $12 million instead of six). Most NBA trade action doesn’t take place until front offices have the full Swiss Army knife of tools available. Sometime around the end of January will be the first “hot zone” of trade activity, building through the All-Star break, and peaking at the trade deadline. Until then, we should give the Cavs opportunity improve.

Earlier this season, I said that “the road to mediocrity is paved with lowered expectations.” I still believe in that, but my stance has softened. The expectations should be consistent play: player to player, quarter to quarter, game to game. The focus has been too much on goals, and not nearly enough on “taking it one day at a time” (to borrow more from AA). It’s all about the process. We shouldn’t let Dan Gilbert’s expectations for the season and our own unrealistic expectations lead to irrational resentments.

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Correction: Kevin is quite right. I not very good at maths. The Cavs are were on pace for 23 wins (worse than that now) at the time of this article. The article originally said 29 wins.

18 Responses to “Age and Expectations”

Really nice take, Nate. I needed to read a thoughtful overview regarding reasonable expectations. I’ve said this many times before, although I’m thankful for Dan Gilbert’s enthusiasm and willingness to spend, his lack of NBA savvy really scares me. Ever since Gilbert said that LeBron quit on us in the Orlando series, I could never take him seriously again. I hope he doesn’t mandate a panic trade involving Waiters. We need to stay the course. What Gilbert SHOULD mandate is that Mike Brown hire an offensive assistant who teaches these kids how to play together. Get Anthony Bennet some burn in some confidence-building situations. Karasev has probably played more meaningful minutes of basketball than half this team due to his overseas experience. Let him get out there with the starters.

Really well done, Nate. I am biased I suppose, as this article fleshes out remarkably well some of the comments I and others have been making. Really well done.

The one quibble I have and it is a quibble I have frequently with statistical analysis, is that Andy has clearly lost some energy. The eyes tell me this if the stats do not. My point is that stats are remarkably important but the eyes have a place in analysis too, despite the relative subjective-ness of the “eyeball test.”

Great and timely article though. I wish everyone this off-season, from Gilbert down to the media and the fans, would’ve understood better the youth factor in relation to winning in the league. Then expectations might have been a bit more in line, perhaps…

@Raoul- Was Gilbert wrong about LeBron quitting in the Boston series? Not necessarily. Something weird happened and its reasonable to attribute the “quitting” moniker to him there. Was Gilbert wrong about LeBron quitting in the Orlando series the year prior? Absolutely, and I’m embarrassed as a Cavs fan that he would even consider going there. I don’t feel like looking up the stats but I’m fairly certain LeBron had one of the greatest series in the history of the NBA playoffs against Orlando. Off the top of my head, I’ll say he averaged 35, 9 and 8 but that could be off. I just remember watching in awe.

A nice piece Nate. In trying to look for a reason to be optimistic about this team, I’ve been looking for some perspective to help get me there. This article nearly does it. Almost.

But not quite.

The issue isn’t the losing; it’s the clear regression across the board. All individual PERs have taken a step backwards. They were more competitive as a team from night-to-night last January than they are today. And on top of it all, they are just downright painful watch right now.

There were far too many threads in this piece, grover, to go over the individual development of Cavs players, but yes, they’ve regressed. I find Kyrie’s problems to be most quizzical. The more I watch him, the more I’m convinced, that while the Cavs’ offense is bad, Kyrie’s biggest problems is that while Byron Scott helped him learn how to score, he didn’t help him learn how to win, and how to be a better teammate. I’m not sure that Mike Brown is the one who can fix this. Ultimately Kyrie is the one who will have to change his habits, and everything else will flow from that. We can only hope that the Cavaliers organization provides the tools for him and the rest of the Cavs to stem their regression.

Sorry to poop on this parade, but the cavs are on pace for 23 wins, well below the line on that graph. Even if they were on the line, wouldn’t that be disappointing? “Hey look…those three years pf tanking and misery? They built an average, non exceptional team!”

Nate, this is an awesome piece. Super level-headed and reasoned. I don’t know what parade Kevin’s pooping on…other than the one where someone finally dispassionately breaks this team down.

The bad thing about the “Thunder-plan” people sold is that it neglected to take into account the hyper-proficient growth curve that Westbrook and Harden took, the presence of Jeff Green as a FOURTH above average young player and the efficiency of Durant’s game from midway through year 2 on.

I worry that this team is ill-fit to properly develop these players. Either the Cavs have lucked into 4 high-ceiling players with very stubborn personalities or no one on the staff is capable of showing these guys how to improve. Dion seems like a guy who would respond well to the simple equation of “3’s+drives and dishing= free throws, dunks, highlights and an 8 figure contract.” Simple as that. This isn’t some complex enigma. The dude likes his shine and really wants to be a star. Show him how to do that like Ginobili, Harden, Jason Terry and other handling 2-guards in that vein.

Anthony Bennett should have gotten sat down the first time he airballed a 3. That guy should be carving out space, soaking up fouls and mastering paint touches and effective picks.

Also, people seem afraid to talk about how the double-standards for Kyrie are clearly manifesting in bad habits (rushed shots and bad ball movement) elsewhere. The Cavs, and Mike Brown specifically had the same issue with LeBron. Fortunately on the court, Bron was a singular talent with an amazing focus for improvement. So the Cavs were a relative success. But It’s not coincidence that it took ONE failure to spur real work on his post game and jumper when he hit an environment of discipline and accountability. There were 2 failures arguable bigger than the Mavs series in Cleveland and there didn’t seem to be impetus to make incremental change.

This is an institutional failure that’s starting to look similar to the last one.

Sorry Demetrius. I’m just depressed. My main thought was that the time for patience has run out (at least as it relates to 4 – 10 starts, routine double digit losses, etc). I don’t have any answers, admittedly.

Kevin I get it, this team is HORRIBLY disappointing. We all know we’re stuck with Mike Brown… but when we look back at things it’ll probably come out that he was the wrong choice for this team. He’s running the exact same stuff he ran before, without the 6’8 freight train MVP to make it look good. Guys aren’t in a position to succeed and the defense isn’t good enough to justify this crap.

If you want to be really depressed, imagine what this team would look like with George Karl, who was available and wanted to coach in the League. This team running the PnR, all drive or 3 pointer offense. With impeccable spacing. Karl made spacing work on a team with Faried and Kofous/McGee sharing the court for god’s sake.

Only encouraging Cavs thing I’ve seen in weeks. I didn’t appreciate how young the Cavs really are.

I have had the biggest problem with Kyrie going circus all day. Was Kyrie this way last year? He seems such an unwilling passer now. Sure, ok, iso Kyrie at the end of the game, but when you draw the entire defense into the key – PASS THE BALL! I almost woke all the kids during that Pelicans game.

Awesome piece, Nate. Now can you write a similar one to make me feel better about Mike Brown? While I appreciate his emphasis on defense, it seems that he’s increasingly unable to inspire these guys to have fun while playing the right way together. I actually felt ok about Gilbert’s decision to re-hire him, but now it’s discouraging to feel as though he hasn’t improved much as a coach since his first tenure with this organization. It isn’t a coincidence that this offense, under Browns’ leadership, continues to be as stagnant as ever. And, I don’t believe, at this point, Brown is capable of fixing that without some major help.

Nate, do you think part of the problem is too many young guys and not enough leaders? Irving, Thompson, Karasev, Bennett, Felix, Sims, Dellavedova, Waiters, Zeller. That’s 9 guys with less than 3 years experience. The Thunder never had that many. They may just have to ship some of the youth out for veterans to let the other youth develop.

The Lineup: (Click for Author’s Archive)

Nate Smith is an Associate Editor. He grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on Twitter.

Tom Pestak is an Associate Editor. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.

Robert Attenweiler is a Staff Writer. Originally from OH, he's long made his home in NYC where he writes plays and screenplays (www.disgracedproductions.com) some of which end up being about Ohio, basketball or both. He has also written for The Classical and the blog Raising the Cadavalier. You can contact him at rattenweiler@gmail.com or @cadavalier.

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