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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Red Racing Horses Analysis of Lassa Race- The Last Race of Them All

District 24: Julie Lassa
Needed Signatures: 15,879
Due Date: May 16
Supreme Court vote: 55% Kloppenburg
Out of the four on here, this one seems furthest away. Lassa has never had close elections unlike the other 3 Senators listed here. However, Walker did carry this district in 2010 and it is within reach. Scott Noble, a former Marshfield Alderman is leading the recall efforts. He would not give a number of signatures gathered, but said it was going "very well." This district also has the latest signature turn in date, so there is plenty of time to get the signatures. Since there is a pretty good sense of who the candidate will be here, I will only go through two potential candidates even though there are more options.Alderman Scott Noble
Noble, as mentioned above, is a former Marshfield Alderman who has taken lead of the effort to recall Lassa. Through this effort, he is meeting key people and activists across the district. This makes it unlikely that any would challenge him in a primary. He tells me that he will form an exploratory committee "soon" but is focused on gathering signatures now and will not announce until he is confident that they have more than enough signatures. He has ties to the Ron Paul affiliated Republican Liberty Caucus and calls himself an "Ed Thompson Republican". Thompson, of course, is Tommy's brother who ran as a spoiler in the 2002 Gov race as the Libertarian Party nominee. He is likely to be our nominee here.
Pros: Energetic, knows district, libertarian views give crossover support and national $$ base
Cons: Too conservative, name recRep. Scott Krug
Even though Noble is likely to be our nominee, I cannot ignore a 35 year old state Rep, as state Reps are obvious candidates for Senate. Krug is a psychologist who was elected to the Assembly in 2010. He, like Noble, is a member of the Republican Liberty Caucus. Must be something with this part of WI.
Pros: Libertarian views=crossover support/fundraising base, won tough 2010 race
Cons: Name rec, experience
With Lassa's popularity and the Democratic lean of this district, along with the absence of a stand-out Republican candidate, this race ranks as Likely Democrat