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Rosin: Pandora Actually Gets 11%

6-5-14

Edison Research's Larry Rosin opened the second day of Radio Ink's Convergence 2014 with a talk on "Share of Ear" – starting off by saying he's continually asked by agencies, radio people, analysts, and others, "What is the share..." of everything. Of all audio. And the answer, he said, is that right now, nobody knows. But the question could potentially be answered.

Rosin said it's possible to take what data is provided by Nielsen and Triton and estimates based on SiriusXM's subscriber numbers and make an educated guess on the numbers. But using the mix of available data does, he said, introduce some "arbitrariness into the analysis." A logical measurement, he notes, would be hours of listening. But Nielsen doesn't release that information. Cume is readily available, but not TSL. Rosin said, "Everyone knows, unless they're deluding themselves, that TSL is falling." His own estimate is that time spent listening is falling about 6 percent a year – though he notes that some listening to radio streams may not be being captured.

About Pandora and its self-reported listener hours, Rosin noted that the company gets grief for that, "and it should." But his own "back of the envelope" calculation is that Pandora gets closer to 11 percent of overall listener hours. He said radio should be prepared, as more numbers become available on streaming, since Pandora "might be a really big deal."

Rosin is a big proponent of all audio – radio, online, YouTube, everywhere – finding a single reliable, understandable metric, covering the whole audio platform. Still, asked whether Pandora has replaced terrestrial listening, he said, "There is more audio listening going on now, I would argue, than ever before." Online radio and more choices are "absolutely growing the pie." Some new listening is taken from radio, but not all.

He warned, "Broadcast people should not fool themselves when people try to argue things like, 'We have more listening in Gainesville, FL, than Pandora has nationally.'" It's not true, he said, and, "It's bad for the industry to try to fool themselves like that."

(6/10/2014 1:20:58 PM) "Radio is local" is the wrong approach. Pandora is already selling local ads. "Radio is Now" might be a better slogan, radio can provide breaking news and information that Pandora can't (yet). This is where AM/FM radio shines. When there is a fire, hurricane, tornado or earthquake, people won't be rushing to Pandora for information.

- Rusty Hodge

(6/8/2014 11:47:15 PM) While it is frustrating to understand how to slow down the Pandora freight train, it is clear that the Wall Street pressures on the bottom line will not help us understand? The reality is that Pandora has provided our listeners and advertising clients a viable alternative that delivers a product the listeners control and advertisers covet. We have to change the way we operate and that bone breaking change will not be possible with the corporate structure we operate under. I am frustrated!