I'm not smart enough to come up with macro investing ideas on my own. But I am willing to be convinced by investors who are much smarter than me and have been proven correct in the past.

Prem Watsa convinced me about a pending financial crisis through his Fairfax shareholder letters in the years leading up to the world falling apart in 2008. I'm certainly listening to Jeremy Grantham's warnings about natural resource shortages in the future.

I've also got time for Kyle Bass, founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management LP, who in the video linked below describes why he sees a looming economic crisis for Japan.

Bass has previously predicted and profited from the collapse of the subprime real estate market and the rise in precious metals starting in 2009.

See the presentation here. [url=http://media.chicagobooth.edu/mediasite/Viewer/?peid=f15d95d054e8442ab0cc1c60321383101d][/url]

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