Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 3, 2013):

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If you've just come from the ABC post this week, there's more water treading with the obvious here at this week's CBS post.

While it is certain that CBS will cancel one of the three shows in the headline to make room for a new drama next Fall (and possibly more if Golden Boy is renewed, or they reduce their drama hours) I'm the first to admit that guessing which of the three is probably my shakiest current prediction on any network.

I have CSI:NY as "likely canceled" based on little more than the fact that its season is ending early (and it's an old, low rated show, but that's nothing new). Would I be surprised if either The Good Wife or The Mentalist is canceled instead? Not one tiny bit. But I was going to make a call by the end of the season anyway, and it's unlikely I will know more before then, so I figured that fortune favors The Bold.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bearon Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Vegas should have already disappeared. CSI: NY is getting old; it should vanish. The Mentalist seems to be selling well in syndication now, so they may hold onto it for that reason. The Good Wife? Close the door.

rosemary

I live to watch The Mentalist. why would CBS take an entertaining show off. take off the gory Criminal Minds. I have quit watching it because of all the gore..also 2men and a boy because it is too much sexually Indio.

rosemary

It was a mistake moving The Mentalist to Sunday night because of the football games. that drove TM to be on soooo late…lost viewers that way..unless you recorded it..and many seniors don’t know how to record.

rosemary

The problem with the mentalist is that it was moved to Sunday night…..the football games made it run late…hence less viewers…bring it back to Wednrsday.

Annie

Noo!
THE MENTALIST NEEDS TO BE RENEWED AGAIN!

mary

I really don’t know why everyone assumes H50 will move to Fridays to die. I know it is moving there for the summer but I don’t think that is permanent. H50 is actually getting pretty good ratings for a 10 pm drama. It was the second highest 10 pm scripted drama on CBS this week and third highest 10 pm drama among all other networks. People are comparing the ratings to last year and all 10 pm dramas have gone down. Not just H50.

CBSviewer

@ Mary

I agree. Hawaii Five-0 will stay on Monday at 10/9c next Season. Elementary is more likely to move to Friday or Sunday. I also think CSI: NY will be Renewed (After all its CBS’s highest rated drama on Friday !)

Chris H

I started watching CSI: NY. Then CSI: Miami. The last one I started seeing was CSI… From the remaining two airing, I prefer CSI: NY. CSI changed the main character 3 times…
I would love seeing a 10th season… It is old, but not boring!

The Mentalist should end… Just let them find Red John, have him killed.

About TGW, I don’t watch, so I cannot tell much about it.

Beepster

Hawaii Five-O is without a doubt the DUMBEST show on TV today… Two Broke Girls is a close second. You have to a mindless moron to enjoy that crap…

Blue Bloods and The Good Wife are in the minority of shows that are smart, entertaining and tell good stories…. If CBS cancels either of those, they’re IDIOTS!

Sam

I would really like another season of The Good Wife.

Holly

It’s comments like Beepster’s that make me NOT want to watch The Good Wife.

Elijah

@deborash
“Vegas should have already disappeared”

Vegas has been steadily growing in the ratings the past several episodes, and gets tons of critical acclaim. You have to remember that NCIS and the Big Bang Theory didn’t get the ratings they get now in their first seasons. Heck I know 3 people who just started watching Vegas less than a month ago due to the strong word of mouth.

Elijah

It wouldn’t surprise me if Vegas were to get a syndication deal by the end of the season like Hawaii Five 0 did in it’s first season.

v

There’s no chance VEGAS gets syndication deal at end of season.
Period shows aren’t popular enough.

With the NCIS spinoff virtually guaranteed pickup, VEGAS is done.
CBS will have there 3 hour NCIS night.

Ultima

@ElijahIt wouldn’t surprise me if Vegas were to get a syndication deal by the end of the season like Hawaii Five 0 did in it’s first season.

That’s because you have unrealistic expectations of how the TV industry works.

Shows that get syndication deals after their first seasons (e.g. Hawaii Five-0, Modern Family, Glee) are breakout hits, not shows that spend the entire season on the bubble.

Oh, wait, Vegas isn’t even on the bubble, it’s going to be canceled.

Holly

@Elijah,

Vegas has been steadily growing in the ratings the past several episodes,

Sure, if you ignore this week’s episode, which hit a series low…and pretend that getting three 1.6’s in a row is “steadily growing”

Elga N

Nah, I don’t think that they will cancel The Good Wife!

ateofi

Beepster
Hawaii Five-O is without a doubt the DUMBEST show on TV today… Two Broke Girls is a close second. You have to a mindless moron to enjoy that crap…
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And you have to be very ill-mannered and arrogant douchebag to call people morons just because they enjoy they shows you hate! Maybe we “the morons” also enjoy ambitious shows like “The Good Wife” which is one of the best written and acted network series now. Maybe we also watch excellent cable shows like: “Homeland”, “Dexter” or “Boldwark Empire”. So jusy be careful, otherwise you will choke with your own venom!!

Petar Ivanov

In my opinoion:

NCIS&POI are best CBS dramas.

2BG&TBBT best CBS sitcoms.

Big batle between TGW fans CSI NY and Vegas fans. Think TV by the numbers has some fault here with these titles. People(fans of these 3 shows) are way too angry and aggressive.

ateofi

Petar,
according to the “wise one” beepster, you are a “moron” because you enjoy 2BG. Just saying – the level of discussion here is sometimes embarrasing!!!