The country may be ready for change, but things move more gradually in country music. It's easy to envision repeat winners from last year in more than half the categories at the Country Music Association Awards tonight (ABC, 8 ET/PT). Here's our prediction for who's in and who's out.

ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR• Kenny Chesney• Brad Paisley• George Strait• Sugarland• Keith UrbanShould/will win: At a time when many acts struggle to fill arenas, Chesney packs stadiums. So give the man his due — and his fourth win, especially since his path was made easier by the CMA's unwillingness to nominate top-earners Toby Keith, Rascal Flatts or Tim McGraw.

FEMALE VOCALIST• Alison Krauss• Miranda Lambert• Martina McBride• Taylor Swift• Carrie UnderwoodShould/will win: If fans, especially young ones, voted rather than the country music industry, Swift might take this award, but Underwood remains country's sweetheart for the time being.

MALE VOCALIST• Kenny Chesney• Alan Jackson• Brad Paisley• George Strait• Keith UrbanShould/will win: Paisley, co-hosting this year's show with Carrie Underwood, should have a short walk to the mike as he accepts his second award in this category.

NEW ARTIST• Jason Aldean• Rodney Atkins• Lady Antebellum• James Otto• Kellie PicklerShould win: Otto's Just Got Started Lovin' You is country radio's most-played song this year.Will win: Atkins, however, has topped the charts with four different singles.

DUO• Big & Rich• Brooks & Dunn• Montgomery Gentry• Sugarland• The WreckersShould/will win: Brooks & Dunn and Montgomery Gentry still get more airplay, but reigning duo Sugarland, with a nomination for entertainer of the year, look to be a lock here.

SINGLE•Don't Blink, Kenny Chesney•Gunpowder & Lead, Miranda Lambert•I Saw God Today, George Strait•Stay, Sugarland•You're Gonna Miss This, Trace AdkinsShould win:Gunpowder & Lead makes the most visceral impact, but CMA voters probably will make a safer choice, thematically and musically. Will win: Sugarland is on a roll, so its cheating ballad, Stay, gets a slight edge over sentimental favorites from Adkins and Strait.

ALBUM (goes to artist and producer)•Carnival Ride, Carrie Underwood•Cowboy Town, Brooks & Dunn•Good Time, Alan Jackson•Just Who I Am: Poets & Pirates, Kenny Chesney•Troubadour, George StraitShould/will win: In the absence of any career- or genre-defining statement, look for the biggest album to win. Carnival Ride, at 2.4 million sold, has nearly a million on the next-biggest disc here.

MUSICAL EVENT•Another Try, Josh Turner featuring Trisha Yearwood•Every Other Weekend, Reba McEntire and Kenny Chesney•Gone Gone Gone, Robert Plant and Alison Krauss•Life in a Northern Town, Sugarland featuring Little Big Town and Jake Owen•Shiftwork, Kenny Chesney and George StraitShould win: Plant knows what a good thing he has going with Krauss — he blew off Led Zeppelin for it. CMA voters ought to recognize that, too. Will win: Chesney and Strait. Two entertainer-of-the-year nominees from two label-conglomerate powerhouses will be tough to beat.

VIDEO•Don't Blink, Kenny Chesney•Good Time, Alan Jackson•Stay, Sugarland•Waitin' on a Woman, Brad Paisley featuring Andy Griffith•You're Gonna Miss This, Trace AdkinsShould/will win: With its extreme close-ups of singer Jennifer Nettles, Sugarland's Stay is a stark and effective piece of video-making. But, really, how do you pass up the chance to honor 82-year-old Andy Griffith? He and Paisley get this one.

MUSICIAN• Jerry Douglas (Dobro) • Paul Franklin (steel guitar)• Dann Huff (guitar)• Brent Mason (guitar)• Mac McAnally (guitar)Should win: Franklin has been one of country's most distinctive players since the mid-'80s, but a pedal-steel player has never won this award.Will win: Voters may reward Mason's long tenure as a top Nashville session picker, but expect a fourth trophy for Douglas.

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