April 12, 2009

David Warsh on John Geanakoplos

David Warsh knows how to spin a yarn about economics and economists. His latest post features John Geanokoplos of Yale and the waves he has been making in academic and policy circles with his work on "leverage cycles." His ideas have been around for a while, but Geanokoplos says they have caught on only recently:

“After it was finally published, as “Liquidity, Defaults and Crashes” in the conference volume in 2003, I gave that Seattle paper at every major university. It was exactly about the liquidity cycle, but it didn’t really catch on,” Geanakoplos recalled last week. The time for it wasn’t ripe. The Asian financial crisis had been contained. No lender lost a dollar when LTCM failed. The consequences of the dot.com crash had been confined mainly to the stock market. For the next seven years, business as usual resumed. “This time they are more interested.”

Here is the fundamental insight, according to Warsh:

a single loan requires not one but two terms to be negotiated, and that one may become much more important than the other in certain situations was clear enough to Shakespeare four hundred years ago. Wrote Geanakoplos: “Who can remember the interest rate that Shylock charged Antonio? But everybody remembers the pound of flesh that Shylock and Antonio agreed upon as collateral. The upshot of the play, moreover, is the regulatory authority (the court) decides that the collateral level Shylock and Antonio agreed upon was socially suboptimal, and the court decrees a different collateral –a pound of flesh but not a drop of blood.” Thus did the The Merchant of Venice end happily, not with a cramdown, but with very different terms if the loan were to be foreclosed.

The trick, Geanakoplos says, is to recognize that the tendency to increasing leverage is part of the process – and that collateralization generates bigger and bigger effects on assets prices as the cycle rolls on, until, in due course, for one reason or another, participants eventually become uneasy with the situation, and the cycle comes to a crashing halt. To reduce the foreclosure mess (the paralyzing bad news in the current situation), he recommends Fed-mandated principal write-downs for non-prime borrowers whose loans are underwater. To stop the de-leveraging, he says, the Fed should prop up leverage at moderate levels, even if the market demands more collateral. To replace the natural optimists who have gone broke, the government must step in and do some buying. That’s what the Troubled Assets Relief Program was for. And the market has been buoyed recently by the prospect of more of the same. But if the anticipated TARP II is not forthcoming, he says, the rescue effort probably back again.

So add John Geanakoplos to the (short) list of economists we should all have been listening to more intently (Bob Shiller, Nouriel Roubini, Raghu Rajan, ???).

Comments

Depends on which Bob Shiller we're listening to. Is it the Bob Shiller of Irrational Exuberance? Or the Bob Shiller of "New Financial Order" whose guiding mantra seems to be "let's securitize everything"? His heart is in the right place, surely, but his writings are schizophrenic.

surprised you didn't think it was relevant to note that he is a managing director and head of research at the biggest mortgage backed securities hedge fund in the world, one that lost an enormous amount of money last year and has had to freeze investor redemptions. so either he wasn't putting his money where his mouth was or his firm needs to start listening to him more.

Just five UK companies have made it on to a list of the world's most ethical corporations, published by an American research institute today.

Marks & Spencer, the retailer, HSBC, the London-listed banking giant, Vodafone, the telecoms group and AstraZeneca, the drugs maker and the emerging markets bank Standard Chartered are included in a list of 99 "good corporate citizens", compiled by the Ethisphere Institute.

The Anglo-Dutch consumer goods group Unilever and Thomson Reuters, the newly merged Anglo-American media group also make the institute's cut this year.

More than three months into a medical leave from Apple Inc, Chief Executive Steve Jobs remains closely involved in key aspects of
Steve Jobs

running the company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook runs the day-to-day operations, but Jobs has continued to work on the company's most important strategies and products from home, the newspaper said in a story on its website.

He regularly reviews products and product plans, and was particularly involved in the user interface of the new iPhone operating system that Apple unveiled last month, the Journal said.

Jobs, an Apple co-founder who is considered the company's creative leader, is also involved in the development of future projects, the paper said, citing people with knowledge of the company's strategy.

Jobs, 54, who was treated in 2004 for a rare form of pancreatic cancer, took a medical leave in early January, saying he would return in June and would remain involved in "major strategic decisions while I am out".

But he has made no public appearances or statements since then, and it has been unclear just how involved he continued to be, the Journal said.

Malaysia Airlines said Wednesday it has dropped a proposed joint venture with Australia's Qantas Airways for aircraft maintenance and repair. Managing Director Idris Jala said discussions were halted after a preliminary agreement for the Malaysian project inked in 2007 lapsed recently. The news came amid new woes at Qantas, which on Tuesday slashed its annual profit forecast and said it would cut up to 5 percent of its work force as it...

The IMF urges more aggressive action by governments to clean up banks and financial groups swiftly and to purge them of toxic assets. It warns that failure to pursue this urgently risks aggravating the banks’ plight and prolonging the world economic slump.

The fund has sharply raised its estimate of losses on lending, first made in the United States, for a second time, to $2.7 trillion. That compares with an initial forecast of just under $1 trillion and a $2.2 trillion estimate six months ago. For the first time, the IMF has also issued estimates of likely losses inflicted by lending originated in Europe and Japan. It puts likely write-offs due to European lending at $1.19 trillion and those for Japan at $149 billion.

New losses to be written off by British banks this year and next are put at $200 billion, compared with $750 billion for eurozone banks and $550 billion for the US. The fresh UK losses come on top of $110 billion already written off up to the end of last year.

French immigration minister Eric Besson pledged today to remove a camp where illegal migrants gather near the port of Calais to try crossing to Britain.

The "jungle", as the makeshift tent city is known locally, sprang up after France closed a large Red Cross centre at nearby Sangatte in 2002, under pressure from Britain which saw it as a magnet for clandestine migrants.

"The jungle will no longer exist," Mr Besson told local business leaders during a visit to Calais.

"To maintain and develop the jungle would be an obstacle to economic interests and employment," he said.

Mr Besson was due to make a speech later outlining specific measures. His visit to Calais comes two days after police and bulldozers swooped on the camp, arresting about 200 migrants and removing their tents made of plastic sheeting and bits of wood.

The raid angered human rights activists who said it made no sense to clear out the "jungle" as migrants would simply relocate elsewhere in the area, as they did after Sangatte was closed. France and Britain should be looking for more sustainable solutions, they said.

Federal regulators on Friday will privately begin telling the 19 largest US financial institutions how well they performed in stress
tests to assess their soundness.

Regulators trying to stabilize the financial system also will release the test methodology they used, which could provide clues about which banks may be in trouble - but also could could unwittingly roil the industry.

The results of the stress tests won't be publicly released until May 4.

The slow-motion rollout is intended to blunt market reaction to the news of which banks are healthy, which ones could fail if the recession worsens and which need more money to survive.

News reports, including a confidential outline of the tests first reported by The Associated Press this week, have led analysts to start handicapping which banks could fail. The speculation will intensify with Friday's release of the test methodology.

``I'm worried about the overreaction - people selling every bank short and pulling out all their deposits and hiding their money in the mattress,'' said Scott Talbott, a lobbyist with the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents the biggest financial firms.

Regulators are striving to release enough information about the stress tests to inspire confidence. But they don't want to give analysts so much detail that they can run their own tests on the banks before the official release of results.

Equally, it may be true that British GDP will be lower than the government forecasts by the middle of the next decade - credit crunches are much harder to slip away from than the government forecasts. But after the stimulus the economy has received, there should be some growth, broadly corresponding to the shape the Treasury predicts.

The real issue is the evaporation of our economic and political pretensions. The Treasury has been forced to recognise that 5% of Britain's GDP has disappeared forever. Too many industries were dependent upon the crazy world of ever-rising house prices and easy credit; now gone for ever. This means that the path to sustainable public finances is going to be astonishingly painful. We can live with national debt doubling, but it cannot double again.

The numbers are terrifying. Budget deficits, even for Keynesian apostles of deficit finance like me, cannot stay at 12% of GDP, or £175bn, for very long, however justifiable in recession. The problem is that so much economic capacity has permanently disappeared, along with those parts of the economy that used to deliver rich tax revenues; the post-recession economy will only reduce the deficit by a quarter. The rest has got to be found by tax increases or reductions in planned spending.

The United States pledged robust support Saturday for an overhaul of governing power within the International Monetary Fund so key emerging-market nations get more say in how the lender operates.

In a speech to the IMF's steering committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also called on the fund to be prepared to offer loans to recapitalize banks or to aid developing countries in rolling over corporate debt.

Geithner's proposals, delivered in a strongly worded address at the IMF's semiannual meeting, are likely to provoke some controversy among the other industralized countries who, with the United States, have long dominated the global lender.

He said, however, it was necessary to retool the IMF to reflect a shift in global economic reality.

"This is essential to strengthening the IMF's legitimacy, ensuring that it remains at the center of the international monetary system and reflects the realities of the 21st century," Geithner said.

Washington's commitment to reform carries special weight because it is the biggest single shareholder within the IMF.

Barack Obama is unhappy with much that preceded his occupation of the White House, and not only his predecessor’s foreign policy, for which he is a serial apologiser. Pre-Obama domestic policy also displeases him: any prosperity the nation enjoyed, he says, was built on a foundation of sand. That, won’t happen again: the trillions of debt he is loading on the nation’s books will enable us to erect our post-recession house on solid rock. Our world will never be the same again.

Of course, it never has been: the march of technology has enabled us to travel faster, age more slowly, entertain ourselves differently, and build air-conditioned homes in the miserably hot south and southwest, and in our nation’s steamy capital. But the president has something more in mind and, with control of both houses of Congress, the power to change the way we live now. Let’s make a few guesses as to where those changes will take us.

Top of the president’s change list is the way we consume energy. He believes our use of carbon-based fuels is causing the globe to heat up, with all the dire consequences conjured up by Al Gore as he sits in the library of his home, probably the largest single consumer of energy of any private residence in America. By one means or another, the president will make the use of oil, natural gas and especially coal so expensive that consumers will be forced to use less energy, and rely more for the energy we do use on costly wind and solar power, paid for with tax-funded subsidies or higher utility bills.

Lady Godiva's legendary ride naked through Coventry was perhaps one of the most effective anti-tax demonstrations in history. Her tyrannical husband, Earl Leofric, had imposed an oppressive tax called the Heregeld to pay for the King’s bodyguard.

After pleading with him to repeal the tax, Leofric replied: "You will have to ride naked through Coventry before I will change my ways". So Godiva took him at his word – after ordering the town to close all their windows and doors, she rode through the town with only her long golden hair as her cover. True to his word, Godiva’s husband repealed the hated tax.

2. 1773: Colonial taxes

The Boston Tea party was not a party, but a demonstration against the unfair taxation of colonies. The British Government gave the British East India Company, an English trade company, far more beneficial tax arrangements than its colonial competitors.

Demonstrators in Boston became particularly fed-up with this, and one night a group of protestors sneaked onboard a docked British East India Company ship and unloaded 45 tons of tea (worth an estimated £10,000 - that is about £953,000 today) into the sea. The event ultimately helped spark the American Revolution and the loss of America to the British Empire.

The current crisis may mean he is about 10 years out – but, still, not a bad prediction for a man who died in 1938.

HousePriceCrash.co.uk was established in October 2003 after its founders predicted “one of the potentially biggest economic boom bust events in living memory” was coming. Its aim, apparently, is to provide a “counterbalance to the huge amounts of positive spin the housing market receives in the main media”.

Whist there is not currently a lot of positive news about the housing market to counter, the site does provide a plethora of information, statistics and forums for those interested in the great house price crash.

He may not have predicted the entire financial meltdown, but he did warn the Government of the possible collapse of Icelandic banks back in July. He said last week: “"Alarm bells were ringing all over about the Icelandic banks and the Treasury must have been blind and deaf not to hear them."

In a written question to the government in July, he asked: "What steps [have] the United Kingdom financial authorities taken to satisfy themselves, independently of the Icelandic financial authorities, of the solvency and stability of Icelandic banks taking deposits in the United Kingdom?”

Lord Davies, for the Government, replied that there was no concern about the liquidity or capital base of Icelandic banks operating in the UK.

The financial events of recent weeks have filled many of us with shock and panic. Surely no one could have predicted that we would be in this mess? Well, actually, they did. Here are ten people who saw the financial meltdown coming...

Here is a question Mr Cable’s posed to Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, during Treasury Questions back in November 2003: “The growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level. What action will the Chancellor take on the problem of consumer debt?”

Mr Brown did not answer how he would solve the problem, merely replying that: “We have been right about the prospects for growth in the British economy, and the hon. Gentleman (Mr. Cable) has been wrong.”

In October 2005 Mr Wood wisely declared: "Investors should sell all exposure to the American mortgage securities market." In an interview in 2007, he said: "Some institutions have been behaving like leveraged speculators rather than banks… The UK economy is heading for a sharp shock. It just remains to be seen how bad

The financial events of recent weeks have filled many of us with shock and panic. Surely no one could have predicted that we would be in this mess? Well, actually, they did. Here are ten people who saw the financial meltdown coming...

Here is a question Mr Cable’s posed to Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, during Treasury Questions back in November 2003: “The growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level. What action will the Chancellor take on the problem of consumer debt?”

Mr Brown did not answer how he would solve the problem, merely replying that: “We have been right about the prospects for growth in the British economy, and the hon. Gentleman (Mr. Cable) has been wrong.”

In October 2005 Mr Wood wisely declared: "Investors should sell all exposure to the American mortgage securities market." In an interview in 2007, he said: "Some institutions have been behaving like leveraged speculators rather than banks… The UK economy is heading for a sharp shock. It just remains to be seen how bad

In the first quarter of 2008, Deutsche Bank had posted a net loss of 141 million euros, and analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a net profit of 764 million euros this time around.

Bank chairman Josef Ackermann said: "This was a key quarter for Deutsche Bank. Once again we demonstrated our strength, as we have consistently throughout this crisis. "But in this quarter, we also proved our earnings power."

Deutsche Bank is the latest global bank to report solid first quarter results, along with peers such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, giving a glimmer of hope that the financial crisis could be past the worst.

In the first quarter of 2008, Deutsche Bank had posted a net loss of 141 million euros, and analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a net profit of 764 million euros this time around.

Bank chairman Josef Ackermann said: "This was a key quarter for Deutsche Bank. Once again we demonstrated our strength, as we have consistently throughout this crisis. "But in this quarter, we also proved our earnings power."

Deutsche Bank is the latest global bank to report solid first quarter results, along with peers such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, giving a glimmer of hope that the financial crisis could be past the worst.

The long awaited 2009 Investment Priorities Plan (IPP) that lists business projects qualified for tax incentives from the government remains unsigned nearly after a quarter has passed into the year earning howls of frustration from the business sector which is currently reeling from a global recession.

The Board of Investments (BoI) expected Malacañang’s approval of the yearly list by the end of last month but petitions from various sectors for changes in the list that Malacañang ordered to be heard delayed its signing, Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Favila said.

Favila said the BoI had to conduct new hearings for the late petitions despite the BoI completing all public hearings along with involved government agencies on the list as early as February this year.

“The IPP has been completed and the President has to sign it,” Favila said.

Favila, however, declined to explain what specific areas of the draft IPP were changed during the Malacañang-initiated hearings.

Favila was also asked if the President will sign the IPP before she leaves for Egypt today but he quipped “I do not ask the President for commitment.”

Initially, the BoI said the 2009 IPP focuses on the granting of incentives to all domestic micro, small and medium enterprises that would include the smallest type of projects such as sari-sari stores and three-wheel vehicles operators.

The scheme is part of plans drafted by the BoI along with other government agencies in line with a directive from the Arroyo administration to safeguard jobs and attract investments while the country suffers from the effects of the global financial slowdown.

BoI managing head and Trade Undersecretary Elmer Hernandez earlier said the new IPP may include new types of incentives that are still in the process of discussions by the IPP inter-agency committee.

The long awaited 2009 Investment Priorities Plan (IPP) that lists business projects qualified for tax incentives from the government remains unsigned nearly after a quarter has passed into the year earning howls of frustration from the business sector which is currently reeling from a global recession.

The Board of Investments (BoI) expected Malacañang’s approval of the yearly list by the end of last month but petitions from various sectors for changes in the list that Malacañang ordered to be heard delayed its signing, Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Favila said.

Favila said the BoI had to conduct new hearings for the late petitions despite the BoI completing all public hearings along with involved government agencies on the list as early as February this year.

“The IPP has been completed and the President has to sign it,” Favila said.

Favila, however, declined to explain what specific areas of the draft IPP were changed during the Malacañang-initiated hearings.

Favila was also asked if the President will sign the IPP before she leaves for Egypt today but he quipped “I do not ask the President for commitment.”

Initially, the BoI said the 2009 IPP focuses on the granting of incentives to all domestic micro, small and medium enterprises that would include the smallest type of projects such as sari-sari stores and three-wheel vehicles operators.

The scheme is part of plans drafted by the BoI along with other government agencies in line with a directive from the Arroyo administration to safeguard jobs and attract investments while the country suffers from the effects of the global financial slowdown.

BoI managing head and Trade Undersecretary Elmer Hernandez earlier said the new IPP may include new types of incentives that are still in the process of discussions by the IPP inter-agency committee.

On the sidelines of the lender’s stockholders’ meeting, Jette Gamboa, Metrobank head of investor relations, said the growth of the bank’s lending business would slow to between 5 percent and 8 percent this year from 17 percent last year.

“The global crisis is not yet over. We don’t know what is going to happen. This is not the time to take in more risk. We will have a tempered approach to credit,” Gamboa said.

The company expects consumer lending to grow by double digits but sees a more modest corporate lending business this year.

If the situation worsens, Gamboa said that it is likely that credit defaults would ensue and asset quality would deteriorate. “[But], what we would like to emphasize is we have built our systems over the last five years centered on credit excellence and risk management,” she added.

The official said the bank’s bad loan ratio however would go down to 4 percent this year from 4.5 percent last year.

Hundreds of thousands of European workers feeling the pinch of the economic crisis rallied at May Day protests Friday from Moscow to Berlin to Istanbul.

Violence and clashes between police and angry protesters disrupted some events, including in Greece, Germany and Turkey. But overall participation fell short of what many countries' unions had hoped for on May Day, a public holiday in many countries that has long celebrated the social and economic achievements of labor movements.

Many of the protesters complained about rising unemployment and lost benefits, but few specifics appeared to emerge from the demonstrations about what governments should be doing to fight the global crisis.

In Paris, fractious French labor unions came together for the first time in decades to stage a joint march that ended at the Place de la Bastille. Up to 300 smaller demonstrations were planned across France, and police said turnout in Strasbourg, Nancy, Metz and Besancon was many times higher than last year's May Day events.

Better news on manufacturing in Europe, China and India, and positive signs on U.S. home sales and construction raised hopes on
Monday that the deepest economic slump in decades may have bottomed out.

Manufacturing in Europe declined at its slowest pace in six months, and grew in China and India in April, while pending sales of existing U.S. homes rose unexpectedly in March and U.S. construction spending rose a slim 0.3 percent the same month, its first increase since September.

A top U.S. Federal Reserve official said the recession is fading and growth will resume later this year.

"While overall activity is still contracting, it now appears as if the pace of contraction is diminishing, and at some point later this year, activity will bottom out and begin expanding again," Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said in a speech to business leaders.

European and U.S. shares rose -- Wall Street's leading indexes jumped 2.5 percent or more as investors bet the government's "stress tests" won't be bad for banks and hoped the housing data meant the recession is ending. The S&P 500 topped the psychologically important 900 level for the first time since early January.

American Airlines says it will let frequent fliers use miles to book one-way trips for half the miles of a round trip. The airline will also let customers redeem miles to fly one leg of a round trip in first-class and fewer miles to fly in coach on the other leg. Officials at American, which developed the first frequent-flier program nearly three decades ago, plans to announce the changes Monday and put them into effect shortly. They say American is the first major U.S....

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“After it was finally published, as “Liquidity, Defaults and Crashes” in the conference volume in 2003, I gave that Seattle paper at every major university. It was exactly about the liquidity cycle, but it didn’t really catch on,” Geanakoplos recalled last week. The time for it wasn’t ripe. The Asian financial crisis had been contained. No lender lost a dollar when LTCM failed. The consequences of the dot.com crash had been confined mainly to the stock market. For the next seven years, business as usual resumed. “This time they are more interested.”http://www.mbt-usa.com/MBT

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