No hung parliament

It’s that time of the election campaign, when thoughts turn to the hung parliament scenario.

There was a nice piece on Radio National Breakfast this morning about the possibility, and writers in this and other newspapers have also suggested it might happen this time.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but we won’t get a hung parliament on August 21.

How do I know? Well ...

.. I don’t, any more than I don’t know it’s not going to hail today. It might happen, but it probably won’t.

A hung parliament is more likely than that, but it’s still very unlikely.

The hung parliament scenario organically develops out of the news process during every election campaign. It’s just a good story. And the thought of Bob Katter holding the balance of power gives extra spice.

In the Tasmanian election in March this year, a hung parliament was close to a certainty because that state uses proportional representation.

In the dying days of March’s South Australian election campaign, a hung parliament was the almost unanimous expectation from election watchers. It didn’t happen.

It was not so fanciful in South Australia because it looked likely that 5 independents would get elected, but it was still over-anticipated.

Hung parliaments always are.

Five MPs is roughly ten percent of the total of South Australia’s lower house. That’s about the same proportion of Britain’s House of Commons that belongs to neither Tory nor Labour. They do currently have a hung parliament.

Ten percent of MPs being non-aligned provides a decent opportunity for neither side to get a majority.

But ten percent of our House of Representatives would be 15, and our cross bench will not look anything like that after August 21. It will number at least three, maybe four and five at the outside.

Not knowing which AFL side will win a game doesn’t lead to expectations of a draw. The same should apply to elections.

Feeling the mood of the electorate and deciding punters are going to call it a tie is just wacky, and creatively devising seat outcomes to to fit the hung parliament scenario is wishful thinking.

A 50-50 two party preferred vote would not make a hung parliament likely and nor does an opinion poll result rounded and plotted against the pendulum.

Party strategists may contemplate this scenario ("Mate, this just feels like a hung parliament") but they are paid to obsess about close election results and anyway are rather superstitious and often irrational.

We almost certainly won’t get a hung parliament tomorrow week, but you haven’t heard or read the last of this story.

We’ve all got to try to keep the election campaign exciting haven’t we?

Note: Please keep comments on topic. Saying how you intend to vote and/or why is not for this blog. And please keep it short. Comments that don’t meet these criteria will be deleted and not posted. Thanks

Your Comments

Peter, It’s odd you introduce this topic when the trend now seems to be slightly moving away from this scenario. A week ago, maybe.

On another point, what do you think of studying candidates’ body language as an independent indicator of trends? I haven’t been noticing any MSM discussion on this aspect.

dedalusFri 13 Aug 10 (10:11am)

Peter, It’s odd you introduce this topic when the trend now seems to be slightly moving away from this scenario. A week ago, maybe.

On another point, what do you think of studying candidates’ body language as an independent indicator of trends? I haven’t been noticing any MSM discussion on this aspect.

mhFri 13 Aug 10 (10:14am)

Hi Peter

Any comment on this mornings Morgan poll 57.5 to 42.5 to ALP. Libs would be wiped out.

PaulCFri 13 Aug 10 (10:24am)

On the basis of the polls there will be a hung parliament. That is the “expected” result mathematically ie average. Now, what is the variation (standard deviation). Perhaps a few percent. In which case Labor could end up with anywhere between 70-80 seats. The probability of hung parliament 5-10%; but it is the expected result. Like a horse race. The favourite is indeed the most likely winner but the odds may still be 10-1. Which makes the swings more interesting. You showed a graph of swings in qld. Perhaps the swing in qld will be quite wild as they tend to overshoot the national.

DespairingFri 13 Aug 10 (10:44am)

The hanging in SA was always going to be unlikely, not because of the “5-independents” scenario which could do it, but because of the concentration of election selling on key marginals. I see the federal campaigning following the same course, except this time the Liberals are joining in, but it’s still reasonable to think in terms, not of a hung parliament, but of an SA-style Labor return of a comfortable majority on a 48% pp vote.

Yep, a hung parliament is like when you toss a coin. Heads is Labor, Tails LNP, and side on is a hung parliament.

chris gFri 13 Aug 10 (10:52am)

I realise pendulums have their limitations, especially if using a national 2PP outcome rather than state by state, but using Mr Green’s pendulum on the ABC site a hung parliament is predicted with a 2PP vote for the ALP between 50.4% and 51.2%. This seems to be the range that the polls are predicting so it is reasonable to at least
recognise that a hung parliament is a distinct possibility.
Have any of the certain indepedents put out a statement detailing who they will support in such a situation?
I presume Katter will just go with the coalition while Windsor would be more likely to support the party with the most seats, not sure about Mr Oakshote. If the Greens get a lower house member or two i would presume they would support Labor.
So although i agree a hung parliament is unlikely, it is by no means an impossibility and i am a little surprised that there has been no foreplanning by the major parties (that we know about).

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (10:55am)

Correct, that shows the limitations of the pendulum.

annieFri 13 Aug 10 (10:52am)

Well Mumble, hope you are right, can you imagine the country’s dismay, if we wake up to a hung parliment, and we are left with three independents who cannot agree on anything, and the Loony Greens sitting up there proudly in the senate, about to create havoc on our finance and productivity sections, which would of course lead to a double disolution, and Oh God, we have to go thru it again, pleeeeeeeeeeese NO!

vickiFri 13 Aug 10 (10:55am)

So what are your views on the results of the Morgan Poll (phone & face-to-face) conducted last weekend, and reported this morning? It is interesting that Morgan Research predicted the rise in unemployment figures which caught the pundits by surprise.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (10:58am)

The face to face looks wacky, but we shouldn’t totally discount it. Just largely discount it.

grahameFri 13 Aug 10 (10:56am)

I am with you on this, Peter. I think the Liberals botched broadband policy where they got well and truly snookered by of all people, Steven Conroy, and the decision not to submit their promises to Treasury for costing, added to Abbott decision not to debate Gillard again, has put too much weight in the Liberal saddlebags. I now think we are looking at a clear ALP win.

MichaelAFri 13 Aug 10 (10:59am)

Peter, I have to agree with you, even though I gave a reason in your last blog why I woudn’t mind a hung parliament. For a hung parliament, Labor needs to be reduced to 75 seats or less, (ie, net loss of at least 13 seats on redistributed margins), but the Coalition win no more than 75 (ie, net gain of no more than 16 seats). This means the Coalition would need to win a net 13, 14, 15 or 16 seats off Labor - no more and no less. If anyone more mathematically-inclined than I can calculate the odds of this, I’d be most grateful, but I’d bet it’s a lot less than 50%.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (11:17am)

It’s closer to 5-10 percent a previous comment suggested.

roccoFri 13 Aug 10 (11:07am)

When I saw your headline I thought you would write that we would not get a hung parliament because one (or more) of the independents could be induced to be little less independent. Maybe a job ... like deputy speaker, chairman of committees ... name Colston ring a bell.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (11:18am)

That would still be a hung parliament, rocco.

ClintonFri 13 Aug 10 (11:12am)

I always thought the hung parliament story was talked up by the parties to limit people flirting with protest votes. On the same basis if the polls get away from the libs too much I expect them to start encouraging a protest vote.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (11:18am)

In the past it has been talked up by Libs re a Labor-Greens Alliance!

Alex MacDFri 13 Aug 10 (11:25am)

Thanks, Peter, for explaining clearly how a hung parliament is just so unlikely. People do see the polls saying 50/50 2PP and interpret that as leading to hanging, but as we all know, voting varies so much between seats and the 50/50 ratio means nothing, particularly this time where we really are talking about 150 separate elections. [snip comment about a pollster (not Newspoll)]

CentremanFri 13 Aug 10 (11:29am)

Overall the likelihood of a hung parliament must be very small. This was established clearly by Possum on the Pollytics blog. His latest projection shows a clear outcome in favour of the Coalition. I reworked last Monday’s Newspoll with Green preferences splitting 75:25 to the ALP and “other” preferences splitting 60:40 to the Coalition. That gives the Coalition 50.2% to 49.8% which is extremely close. But the spread of current polls and trend identification analysis shows that with 8 days to go we are still in for some surprises. I think that will be reflected in seats higher up the pendulum being lost by the ALP and some within the “required swing” being retained by them with a sufficiently good marginal seat campaign to retain government. Hung parliament i would put as a 5% probability.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (11:32am)

Yes, 8 long days to go.

Paul RomasFri 13 Aug 10 (11:30am)

Aughh, no fair! Her Majie could have had another well-hung parliament to dote over and you’ve gone and poured cold water on it Mumble!

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (11:31am)

Sorry about that. She’ll always have Tassie.

SenexxFri 13 Aug 10 (11:36am)

Can we please call it a Balance of Power parliament? All parliaments, upper and lower houses should have balance of power. This is ideal to moderate the excessive nature of the major parties.
Theory is this is what we’ll have in the Senate with the Greens but we don’t call it a Hung Senate, we say they will have the balance of power.

ChristouFri 13 Aug 10 (11:53am)

29% probability of a hung parliament according to Possum’s simulataion on August 4. 9% for 75 seats, 8% 74, 7% 73 and 5% 72 seats. At the time that simulation was consistent with some other analysis like electorate bookmakers odds. Based on polls 22 July to 2 August, and how he does it I dunno.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (11:54am)

With respect to Possum, the odds are much lower than that.

FILLFri 13 Aug 10 (12:07pm)

If the Coalition wins the House it might as well be hung because the ALP/Greens combo in the Senate will hang up a lot of the coalition’s agenda. Back to the polls in 18mths?

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (12:09pm)

Labor had to get everything past Fielding and Xenophon (and of course the Greens) for the last 3 years.

Political ScepticFri 13 Aug 10 (12:07pm)

Don’t forget WA we have an Independent Minister in Dr Liz Constable and an ex ALP now Independant supporting the Government. It’s working pretty good. The Greens of course sacked their member for Fremantle over the love affair with our Troy Buswell and she sits as an independant as well but supports the ALP. The other independants support the Government. We don’t have caos and are sailing along ahead of the rest of the country thats why we only have four Federal Labor members and many think soon to be 2 or 3.

Ex migrant now CitizenFri 13 Aug 10 (12:17pm)

I tend to agree with you and I think the Labour will scrape through by the skin of their teeth.. 76 seats?
[snip telling us how (s)he will vote - not for this blog]

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (12:19pm)

I’m not predicting, I’m just saying hung parliament is always very unlikely.

grimreaperFri 13 Aug 10 (12:32pm)

GREAT NEWS WILL THE HANGINGS BE OPEN TO THE PUBLIC

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (12:39pm)

Attendance will be mandatory.

DwightFri 13 Aug 10 (12:34pm)

Peter, I think perhaps we should actively seek a hung parliament. My current standard for good governance is Belgium. As you’re probably aware, back in 2007 they took nine months to form a new government--and the world didn’t end. After June’s election, I believe they’re back to disagreeing. Can’t find anything about a new government in the European papers, but of course, it’s August, and nothing much happens in Europe in August. A government in caretaker mode can do very little damage to the polis, no?

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (12:40pm)

Dwight, you should try to change the voting system to proportional representation. See above re submission to Committee.

Sally ManderFri 13 Aug 10 (12:40pm)

Mumble, like many, I like your psephology but I was a little surprised to have to consider this possibility this election. I agree with you, it is as predictable as a ‘January news story’ (like Schappelle Corby or Corey Worthington).

However, this election has an interesting twist.. The betting market in the seats shows this needle closer than normal to the curiously unlikely equilibrium.

As it stands this morning, purely based on the current markets:

Coalition: 72
ALP: 74
Ind: 3
GRN: 1

Now, there are 24 events between 67:80:3:0 (Coalition:ALP:Ind:GRN) and 78:69:3:0 for the current election, which concurs with some 90% of the variance in betting markets for the individual seats.

Of these outcomes, only two produce a ‘pure’ hung parliament, 72:75:3:0 & 72:74:3:1, though 8 events result in minority governments (1 ALP, 7 Coalition).

On this basis, yes, we’d have to say that a hung parliament is unlikely with 9 events out of 24 here or 38%. However, it is the closest I have seen in a Federal election in my lifetime!

So a spread of the events would mean that eight events out of the sample space here would produce a hung/minority situation, which is some possibility with polls appearing so close. It would still appear to be a 1:3, 1:4 chance at best.

Peter BrentFri 13 Aug 10 (12:41pm)

Make it 1 in 10 and we have a deal.

CentremanFri 13 Aug 10 (01:32pm)

Sally Mander is right in identifying the 24 most plausible events but to weight them all equally is fallacious. Possum’s numbers point to a distinctly greater likelihood of 76-78 ALP seats than any other outcome and that should be taken into account. Christou has overstated Possum’s figures to some extent as Possum attributes 71.5% to the ALP getting 75 seats or more. But will be close.

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Peter Brent

Peter Brent started Mumble in 2001; the old site can be found at http://mumble.com.au. He mainly goes on about the numbers in electoral behaviour and voters' motivations that drive them. In 2009 he finished a PhD in political science which dealt with electoral administration, a topic he also sometimes goes on about. You can follow him on Twitter at @mumbletwits.