Chart Signals: Dow 20,000, USD 100 and rallies for currencies

07:40, 26 January 2017
· By Colin Cieszynski

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The big story today is the US 30 breaking out over 20,000 but new highs for the US SPX and US NDAQ are also important, providing breadth confirmation. The Australia 200, Japan 225 and Hong Kong 50 have been gaining ground in tandem with other major indices. USD index has a big test of 100.00, which has lifted the lid off a number of other currencies, particularly GBP, CAD, MXN, NZD and SGD.

Asia Pacific Indices

Australia 200 continues its rebound with the index climbing up off 5,600 support toward 5,705 with support rising toward 5,690 and next resistance possible near 5,745 then 5,800. RSI back above 50 confirms momentum turning upward.

Japan 225 confirmed its retaking of 19,000 by the RSI retaking 50 indicating an upturn underway. The index has advanced form near 19,170 toward 19,290 with next potential resistance near 19,500 then 19,700.

Hong Kong 50 is picking up again, clearing 23,000 to confirm a new advance underway. The index has climbed into the 23,150 to 23,170 area with next potential resistance near a measured 23,250.

North American and European Indices

US 30 is breaking out over 20,000 at last! The big round number has emerged as higher support with the index advancing on 20,080. Next potential resistance tests appears near 20,150 then 20,225 and 20,300 all based on measured moves. RSI rising up off 50 confirms upward momentum increasing.

US SPX 500 is breaking out to a new all-time high today, clearing 2,282 which may become support and advancing on 2,296 with next potential resistance near the 2,300 round number then 2,312 based on a measured move from the recent range. Rising RSI calling off a head and shoulders top and confirming upturn.

US NDAQ 100 is breaking out today, clearing 5,100 and advancing on 5,145 within a potential resistance zone between 5,140 and 5,150 based on a cluster of measured moves. RSI getting overbought so the rally could be reaching but for now upward momentum remains intact.

UK 100 is still struggling with 7,200 Fibonacci resistance but it also appears to be stabilizing following a correction with the index holding 7,100 and the RSI holding 50 to keep its underlying uptrend intact. Next resistance possible near 7,260 with next potential support in the 7,000 to 7,010 area where a round number, 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day average cluster.

Germany 30 is breaking out today, blasting through the top of a 11,445 to 11,700 range to signal the start of a new upleg with a rising RSI confirming increased upward momentum. The index has rallied toward 11,810 with next potential resistance near a measured 11,950.

Commodities

Gold is looking vulnerable, slipping under $1,200 and clinging to $1,196 support with its next downside test possible near $1,186. RSI breaking 60 and falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending.

Crude Oil WTI continues to form a symmetrical consolidation triangle between $50.40 and $54.20 with RSI sitting on 50 confirming a sideways phase. Recent trading has seen the price swing between $52.40 and $51.90 with next potential support near $51.50 and next potential resistance near $52.80.

FX

US Dollar Index is clinging to the 100.00 round number and appears poised for a breakdown or a bear trap. Next support near 99.70 then 99.35 with initial rebound resistance near 100.35. RSI still under 50 and falling indicates increasing downward momentum.

EURUSD continues to struggle with $1.0770 resistance at a time that RSI shows upward momentum flattening out. The pair has dropped back toward $1.0740 with next potential support near $1.0720 a Fibonacci level then $1.0655. Next upside test at a Fibonacci cluster near $1.0830

GBPUSD continues to climb, building on its breakout over $1.2500 rallying toward $1.2625 with support climbing toward $1.2570. Next potential resistance near $1.2685 a 23% retracement of its post-Brexit vote downtrend. RSI confirms upward momentum accelerating.

NZDUSD remains under accumulation, confirming its recent breakout over $0.7200 by advancing into the $0.7240 to $0.7270 area with next potential reistanace near $0.7300 then $0.7400. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.

AUDUSD has slipped back into the $0.7540 to $0.7570 zone from $0.7615 resistance in what looks like normal holiday backing and filling. The pair continues to hold above its $0.7500 round number breakout point, indicating its underlying uptrend remains intact.

USDSGD continues to trend downward with resistance dropping toward $1.4180 from $1.4255 and the pair testing $1.4155 Support. Should that fail to hold, next downside tests may appear near $1.4085 a Fibonacci level, then the $1.4000 round number. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward momentum increasing.

USDJPY remains in a downtrend with 114.05 Fibonacci resistance holding, while the RSI remaining below 50 confirms momentum trending downward. The pair has is bouncing around between 113.00 and 113.70 with next potential support near 112.35 then 111.25 both Fibonacci tests.

GBPJPY is breaking out today! The pair has cleared a moving average cluster and blasted through 142.25 a Fibonacci level on its way into the 143.10 to 143.70 area. Next potential resistance near 144.65 then 145.00 and 145.50.

EURJPY is hanging around 122.00 within a 121.00 to 124.00 trading range. RSI sitting on 50 confirms sideways trend. Initial support near 121.70 with initial resistance near 122.60.

USDCAD is breaking down again taking out its 200-day average near $1.3100 which has since become lower resistance, and falling into the $1.3060 to $1.3090 area with next potential support near $1.3030 then $1.3000 and $1.2975 a prior low, round number and Fibonacci test.

USDMXN is breaking down today, taking out 21.32 to signal a top in place and a new downtrend starting. RSI breaking under 50 confirms the downturn in momentum. Next potential support near 20.90 and the 50-day average then a Fibonacci test near 20.75 and the 20.00 round number. .

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