For the sake of the game itself, Wales can never have needed Six Nations success more than it does in the coming seven weeks.

For the sake of the game itself, Wales can never have needed Six Nations success more than it does in the coming seven weeks.

Leave aside seven successive Test defeats for a moment. In terms of on-field fortunes, there have been darker times. Far darker.

But at least when the national side was being routinely beaten in the early 1990s there was a vibrant club scene to fall back on.

No more. Ailing regions, coupled with the booming resurgence of football in the shape of Premier League revelation Swansea City and runaway Championship leaders Cardiff, represents a clear and present danger to the future of rugby in these parts that only the complacent would ignore.

Can Rob Howley’s Wales claw back some lost ground by defying pre-tournament expectations in the annual, enormously unpredictable, northern hemisphere shoot-out?

Of course they can. But my goodness they are going to have to raise it to do so.

There is nothing new in Welsh fans approaching a Six Nations Championship with trepidation. If a reason can be found for pessimism, rest assured it will be. This time though, you can take your pick from any number of worrying indicators.

Warren Gatland’s absence, an injury list that any rugby nation on earth would struggle to deal with, form issues surrounding key players and, of course, the regions. Those regions.

Wales are also without the respective physical and psychological boosts of a Polish boot camp that served them so well 12 months ago – though that was their own choice – and, perhaps more pertinently, they do not have the luxury of an easy start, if such a thing exists in this contest.

Ireland at home on Saturday followed by a trip to Paris... let’s just say that if Wales emerge from those two assignments still in with a chance of retaining their Grand Slam crown then Rob Howley will already have inked himself in as favourite to succeed Gatland after the 2015 World Cup.

It has become something of a cliche to say that everything hinges on the first game, but Wales proved the accuracy of that theory last year when they snatched a last-gasp win in Dublin.

If Ireland exact revenge in five days time then Howley’s men will go on the road until the last weekend clash with England under pressure to avoid something gruesome.

Steering clear of that will depend on how many of Wales’ flashpoints for concern can successfully be addressed.

Can Justin Tipuric and Sam Warburton be accommodated in the back row to good enough effect? Will Ian Evans be fit enough, and Harlequins new boy Olly Kohn good enough, to compensate for the second-row injury crisis?

Can Wales sort out what they are doing at No.10 in the absence of the stricken Rhys Priestland? And if they do, who will be the stand-off’s foil?

I ask that last question because if Howley – who will be the Lions attack coach in Australia – cannot inject more creativity into his side going forward, if Wales can’t be something other than straight-line merchants in the red zone, cannon-fodder for well-organised defences, then we truly are in for a long couple of months.

If there’s one thing that could work in Wales’ favour though, it’s the lack of expectation around them, possibly a record lack of it for defending Grand Slam champions.

Bookmakers have them at fourth favourites behind England, France and Ireland, in that order, to lift the pot in mid-March because of reasons outlined above.

But since when has the Six Nations run according to scripts penned in January?

The prevailing forecast is for England to triumph overall, and, with three matches out of five at home, it is difficult to scoff.

That said, Stuart Lancaster’s boys’ quite extraordinary victory against New Zealand at the end of the autumn campaign appears in the eyes of some to have solved every ill to have plagued England in an extended fallow period since their 2003 World Cup glory.

How fascinating it will be to discover whether that solitary success is indeed a watershed, whether England really are ready, finally, to punch their enormous weight in the Six Nations because of a win against a jaded All Blacks team. With Norovirus.

Next page: Improvement

England, for all their improvement, remain weak at the breakdown even accounting for the conviction of some pundits that captain Chris Robshaw has gone from being ill-suited to the unique snaffling demands of the openside role to its foremost exponent.

Their ability to improvise is also questionable, especially with the somewhat formulaic Owen Farrell at outside-half.

There was a time when England and France were thought to be outgrowing the Six Nations, their power and belligerence expected to usher in a two-tiered affair that would condemn the Celtic nations to the role of permanent poor relations.

It never materialised, but all the same the ‘Le Crunch’ label that came to be redundant might justifiably get another airing when Les Bleus meet Les Rosbifs on February 23.

So what of the French this time around?

Fiendish strength in depth means that something will have gone terribly awry if they are not at least contending towards the business end.

But can coach Philippe Saint-Andre get his selection right, something he failed to do throughout a disappointing first Six Nations in charge last year?

The experienced Freddie Michalak appeared to be the answer at fly-half in November and if he can pick up where he left off then the French have sparky youngsters like Wesley Fofana, Bruce Dulin and Maxime Machenaud who can do damage.

Ireland, underachievers since winning their first Slam for 61 years in 2009, have the advantage of home matches against England and France. If they can issue Wales with some payback in the opening game the possibilities are endless for Declan Kidney’s side.

Lastly, will the perennial Wooden Spoon battle between Scotland and Italy play out once more? Probably, but the Scottish story is a bit more intriguing than usual given the Scott Johnson and Dean Ryan coaching double-act.

If expectations around Wales are low, for the Scots they are non-existent, and if they can perform well at Twickenham this weekend and then beat Italy at Murrayfield in a fortnight, they will give themselves a decent platform to work off.

All in all though, the sheer volume of imponderables, and the certain knowledge that events could play out one way or the other, is what makes the Six Nations one of the most cherished staging posts of the sporting calendar.

The tribalism, the drama, the jaw-droppingly ferocious physicality, the patriotic emotion...it will all be there in spades as usual in the coming weeks.

But let’s hope the pure spectacle doesn’t disappoint us this year, of all years.

Traditionalists are already railing against the possible introduction of bonus points, expressing fears that it will lead to unworthy champions even though historical statistical analysis offers up not a scrap of evidence that it ever would.

Well, if the Six Nations could not be improved with the introduction of a system that works for every other major tournament in the world, let it prove as much in 2013.

In Wales, it certainly needs to. The national team could probably lose 70 matches on the trot and still the WRU would fill the Millennium Stadium for games like the one against Ireland on the weekend.

But keeping the heart of Welsh rugby beating powerfully requires more than that. Rugby in Wales has been put on the ropes in the last nine months, on more than one front.

A successful Six Nations would be a perfect way to start the fightback.

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