Nett: Blosser study has positive outlook

Where's the fire?

Another batch of economic tea leaves to read as we begin the second quarter of 2012.

The annual Blosser Report has been parked in my inbox for a couple of weeks, and there’s finally been enough of a break we can take a look at it.

The report, named for late real estate appraiser Merle Blosser, identifies nine trends that usually offer some indication of where the local economy’s going. After Blosser’s death, the Houston-based Gerald A. Teel appraisal firm acquired the report and continued the tradition of the annual year-end view of the local economy.

Of the nine, three — apartment occupancy, retail sales and average home sales prices — are trending up.

Four — unemployment, new single family home construction permits, home sales, and commercial construction — were trending down.

And retail and office occupancy were simply holding their own.

“Overall, Lubbock has weathered the national downturn better than some other areas of the state, as most indicators of the economy are stable, with the exception of the local office market,” the report states.

While we’ve lamented the construction slowdown the city’s experienced over the last two years, the Blosser report provides a silver lining — Lubbock’s not overbuilt.

In fact, in the office market, Lubbock was something of an anomaly last year as both vacancies and rental rates rose. Usually managers cut rates in a time when vacancies increase.

The apartment market saw a strong year in 2011 with more units coming on line, and rents for one- and two-bedroom units rising. For the year, overall vacancy rates fell to 6.9 percent from 7.6 percent in 2010. The market’s not nearly as tight as it was a decade ago, when the yearly vacancy rate was below 5 percent.

Just the same, if you’re looking for an apartment, don’t expect concessions from landlords.

As long time apartment sector watchers have said, it’s a circular, elastic process — the market tightens up, developers make a push, vacancies rise, concessions come back, construction slows, the market tightens up. In the apartment sector, privately managed student housing is one area where the numbers are a little contrary. We’ve been adding off-campus beds to the market, but rents are going up with the increased inventory.

The Blosser report looked at 14 student-centered communities that total 9,690 beds. (By the way, student housing is more often calculated on the number of beds than the number of units. Unlike 40 years ago when the practice involved all the roomies signing the lease and pooling their money — which was fine until someone came up short on rent day and everyone got evicted — student housing operators have separate agreements with each resident in an apartment. So one roomie coming up short doesn’t put the whole posse on the street.)

The student community market should grow to about 10,300 beds this year, but it looks like a potential construction race for developers to keep up with Tech’s enrollment goal of 40,000 by 2020.

In general, the report notes plenty of good things happening now — ranging from job growth putting more money into the community to a strong retailing environment — with momentum for the years ahead.

Where’s the fire?

If you have a burning desire to help someone celebrate something, there’s a new business in town looking for you.

The business’s partners, Ron Barnett and Frankie and Linda Olthoff, offer a variety of time-based packages that include a short ride in the fire truck and an arrival with flashing lights and blaring siren, and the honoree being announced from the truck’s public address speaker.

The pumper, similar to the one used in the movie “Backdraft,” is the former Brownfield Fire Department’s Engine No. 4, said Linda Olthoff, explaining that her husband bought it to restore it, but initially didn’t have any plans for it.

For more details, call 789-0014 or see the website at firetruckfunparties.com

Changes at TWC

There’s a solid local connection with the chairman-select of the Texas Workforce Commission. Gov. Rick Perry has named Andres Alcantar, a commissioner since August 2008, as the three-person panel’s new chairman. Alcantar, now the commissioner representing the public, will replace current Chairman Tom Pauken May 1. Alcantar, who lives in Pflugerville, is a Texas Tech alum, with both his bachelor’s degree and a master’s in public administration.

By the way, Alcantar will be the keynote speaker Wednesday at the Workforce Solutions South Plains annual employer awards luncheon at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center.

Tickets are still available, and Monday is the deadline for reservations. Call Kim Lehman at Workforce Solutions South Plains (744-1987, ext. 2004) for details. Individual tickets are $20, and payment must happen with the reservation.