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Iranian FM Resignation May Signal Hardliner Victory

Middle East In Focus

Middle East In Focus

Views from the Region

March 4, 2019

The abrupt resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has sparked debate in the regional media over the balance between hardliners and moderates within Iran. Considered one of the major forces behind the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Mr. Zarif has been a staple of Iran’s foreign policy establishment since the election of President Rouhani. But regional observers have long argued that Mr. Zarif’s Foreign Ministry has become severely constrained, with hardliners gaining more control over Iranian foreign policy. While Mr. Zarif’s resignation has not been accepted by Iran’s president, many now wonder how much longer the “moderates” will hold influence.

In an op-ed for Arab News, Majid Rafizadeh points out that there has been a retrenchment in Iranian aggression and confrontation, which may also underline Mr. Zarif’s declining influence: “Whenever Tehran used to encounter serious international pressure, it would tactically and temporarily tone down its provocative and aggressive rhetoric in public in order to deter the threat.... Surprisingly, instead of publicly backing off from its aggressive stance, the Iranian regime has become more aggressive, belligerent, and defiant.... Despite the robust pressure from the Trump administration, the regime has been defiantly unveiling new and advanced weaponries. Most recently, the regime conducted a massive, public navy drill near the Strait of Hormuz.... There appears to be a shift in the way that the Iranian regime reacts to pressure publicly. As the pressure mounts against Iran, the rulers become more violent, aggressive, militarized and belligerent, both domestically and regionally.”

Writing for the Jerusalem Post, Yonah Jeremy Bob suggests that, regardless of whether Mr. Zarif backs down or not from his resignation, his announcement “likely signals either the end or the last-minute saving of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.... For Tehran, firing Zarif could be its final act before leaving the deal. Then again, Zarif could be the sacrificial lamb that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has offered up to those opposing the deal in order to protect the agreement and his own power somewhat longer. Forcing Zarif out could also give the hard-liners greater control over negotiations with the EU and others and give them a chance to vent and threaten more directly in an effort to extract concessions. Either way, Zarif’s resignation is a turning point – and the nuclear-standoff ride just got a lot bumpier.”

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The Middle East Policy Council is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to contribute to American understanding of the political, economic and cultural issues that affect U.S. interests in the Middle East.