Hurricane FLOSSIE (Text)

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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2007
FLOSSIE HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A 15 N MI-WIDE
CLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND -75C.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5/102
KT...AND 6-HR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND
102 KT AS WELL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT...AND FLOSSIE IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
10 KT AND SSTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C. WITH THAT SAID...SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE THAN
FORECAST...HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAK
FLOSSIE AROUND 100 KT. AFTER TWO OR SO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
IMPACT OF THE INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
VARIES FROM EACH OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE WHICH HAVE A MORE ACCURATE
INITIALIZATION.
FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD...270/12...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER
THE MODELS DIVERGE...THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS TAKE A STRONGER
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET...GFS...AND HWRF GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
RESULT OF A MORE WEAKENED SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS WELL AS THE FSSE MODEL.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLOSSIE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 12.6N 139.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 12.9N 141.1W 105 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 13.8N 145.6W 95 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 148.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 156.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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