Predicting the Oscar nominees

Monday

All the lobbying, prognosticating and backstabbing comes to an end Tuesday morning, when the nominees are announced for the 83rd annual Academy Awards show.

All the lobbying, prognosticating and backstabbing comes to an end Tuesday morning, when the nominees are announced for the 83rd annual Academy Awards show.

Expect your usual array of surprises and snubs when the names are called out. Who and what makes the cut is never an exact science, but this year you can pretty much count on “The Social Network,” “The King’s Speech,” “Inception” and “The Fighter” collecting the majority of the nominations.

As for the rest, here’s a rundown of how I believe voters will separate the pretenders from the contenders for the Feb. 27 telecast, beginning with:

Who should be nominated: Adams and Leo didn’t merely light a fire under “The Fighter”; they created a conflagration out of a script that was nothing but kindling. As for Steinfeld, she may have only been 13 during the filming of “True Grit,” but her rich, multifaceted performance had the depth and presence that actors twice her age could never hope to summon. That group, however, would not include Carter, who continues her string of fantastic performances with an endearing portrayal of the future Queen Mother in “The King’s Speech.” As for the fifth and final spot, it’s a wide-open race, but if the category is all about making a major contribution in a minor role, then it should go to Lewis, who in about five minutes of screen time totally blows your mind as the white-trash witness whose perjured testimony sends an innocent man to prison. Lewis made the character hilarious, pathetic and, sadly, very real.

Who will be nominated: All of the above, except I believe Kunis will edge out Lewis, simply because “Black Swan” is rightfully viewed as a much better film than “Conviction.”

For your consideration: In a movie dominated by its male stars, Rooney Mara bored her way into your consciousness in a riveting opening scene that set both the tenor and tone for “The Social Network.” In mere minutes, her character did to Mark Zuckerberg (Jesse Eisenberg) what the highest-priced lawyers in the land couldn’t: shut down the soon-to-be billionaire.

Who should be nominated: Bale will not only get nominated but he’s a prohibitive favorite to win for his penetrating portrayal of a directionless crackhead seeking redemption in “The Fighter.” The rest of the field is merely a formality, but if it is indeed “an honor just to be nominated,” then let the adoration be bestowed upon Ruffalo for his sexy and irresponsible sperm donor in “The Kids Are All Right,” Renner for his empathetic take on an under-educated street thug in “The Town,” and Rush for his hilarious and deeply moving turn as the failed actor who teaches the British sovereign how to ease his stutter in “The King’s Speech.” And in the fifth spot, I’d place a guy who is failing to get the Oscar buzz he’s due, and that would be Timberlake, who commanded the second half of “The Social Network” with his charismatic, slightly insane portrayal of Napster co-founder Sean Parker.

Who will be nominated: Same as the above, except Timberlake will likely be edged out by his “Social Network” costar, Garfield, who was good, but made nowhere near the contribution to the movie that Timberlake did. Also, watch out for Hawkes from the little-seen meth-in-the-Ozarks flick, “Winter’s Bone,” in which he played star Jennifer Lawrence’s villainous uncle.

For your consideration: Bill Murray is always great at delivering deadpan humor. Too good; which might explain why he’s getting so little notice for his turn as the cynical, money-hungry undertaker in “Get Low.” If you ask me, he was the most memorable thing in the movie.

Who should get nominated: The category is shaping up as an interesting battle between a representative of the new guard, Eisenberg, and the establishment, Firth, that will pit the older, more traditional members of the Academy against the younger, hipper faction that realizes you don’t need a British accent and period costumes to deserve the award. The debate should dominate discussions in the weeks leading up to the awards. But members also should not forget about Franco, who was literally a one-man show as the trapped hiker in “127 Hours.” If it were up to me, the final two spots would go to Gosling for his haunting turn as a man whose marriage is falling apart in “Blue Valentine,” and reigning winner, Bridges, who made you forget all about John Wayne with his funny, deeply moving portrayal of Rooster Cogburn in the Coen brothers’ remake of “True Grit.”

Who will get nominated: All of the above, except Gosling, who I fear will lose the support of older members of the Academy due to the frank subject matter of “Blue Valentine.” Taking his place will be DiCaprio, a favorite among voters who had the privilege of starring in two high-profile movies directed by two highly respected filmmakers: Christopher Nolan in the sci-fi action extravaganza “Inception,” and Martin Scorsese in the mind-twisting “Shutter Island.” And if you’re looking for a dark horse, keep an eye on Duvall, always a favorite with the Academy.

For your consideration: Pierce Brosnan is one of the most underrated actors in Hollywood. The guy was not only great at playing 007, he was also terrific in art-house blockbusters like “The Tailor of Panama” and “The Thomas Crown Affair.” But in Roman Polanski’s “The Ghost Writer,” he was at his absolute best, playing a disgraced British prime minister with more dirty little secrets than Tiger Woods, Brett Favre and John Edwards combined.

Who should get nominated: The race is clearly between Bening and Portman, each of whom took home Golden Globes this past week. What’s interesting is that their performances couldn’t be any more different, with Portman doing most of her acting from within in portraying a ballerina slowly losing her grasp on reality, and Bening projecting outwardly in playing a lesbian doctor who proudly wears her crazy life on her sleeve. Two of the remaining three spots should go to Kidman, doing her best work in years as a grieving mother in “Rabbit Hole,” and Williams, brave and daring as a wife desperate to flee her failing marriage in “Blue Valentine.” As for the fifth spot, it should go to the largely unknown Manville, who was a force of nature as a depressed, wine-swigging middle-aged woman fast realizing time has passed her by in Mike Leigh’s “Another Year.”

Who will get nominated: Same as the above. But if the small indie film “Winter’s Bone” captures the attention of enough voters, it could be good news for newcomer Jennifer Lawrence, who played wise beyond her years as a teenager fighting to hold her family together while searching the backwoods for her meth-cooking dad.

For your consideration: She may only be 13, but Chloe Grace Moretz has already established herself as an A-list actress with her disparate but equally dazzling performances in “Kick-Ass,” in which she hilariously played an 11-year-old ninja assassin, and “Let Me In,” in which she broke hearts and sucked blood as a vampire doomed to forever be 12 years old.

Who should get nominated: Fincher is a heavy favorite to walk off with the Oscar on the strength of “The Social Network,” his mesmerizing, multifaceted tale about the founding of Facebook and the growing obsolescence of face-to-face communication in our increasingly cyber society. Hooper will give him a slight run for his money, but “The King’s Speech” is just a tad too old-fashioned and predictable to lure voters away from Fincher. In a perfect world, the rest of the field would be filled by Boyle for making a mountain of a movie out of a man and a boulder in “127 Hours,” the Coens for their imaginative reinvention of the Western in “True Grit,” and Aronofsky for a whacked-out psychological thriller that provided a behind-the-scenes look at the darker side of ballet that kept you on your toes.

Who will get nominated: All of the above, except don’t be surprised if Russell nudges out the Coens on the strength of the amazing performances he drew from Mark Wahlberg, Melissa Leo, Amy Adams and Christian Bale in “The Fighter,” the best-acted movie of the year.

For your consideration: Roman Polanski deservedly has a bad rap due to his legal troubles, but that should not influence voters’ opinions of an artist who has seldom been more brilliant than he was with “The Ghost Writer,” a film that melded political intrigue, infidelity and betrayal into an incredibly suspenseful yarn that would make Hitchcock proud.

What should get nominated: The Academy is sticking to its ridiculous idea of nominating 10 pictures instead of the traditional five, but it doesn’t really matter because this year it’s clearly a two-picture race between “The Social Network” and “The King’s Speech,” two films that define Hollywood’s future and its past, respectively. If there must be eight more nominees, they should include works as daring and innovative as “Black Swan,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “True Grit,” “The Ghost Writer,” “127 Hours,” “Let Me In,” “Another Year” and “The Town.”

What will get nominated: While most of the films above will make the cut, three will likely get bumped by a trio of vastly overrated entries in “Toy Story 3,” “Inception” and “The Fighter.” While all three are award worthy, their true value lies outside the best picture category. You can count on “Toy Story 3” picking up the Oscar for best animated feature, “The Fighter” scoring acting wins for Leo and Bale, and “Inception” sweeping the technical awards, like best editing, set decoration, cinematography and special effects.

For your consideration: It’s not getting the buzz the films above are receiving, but voters should be sure to take a look at “The Company Men,” a small indie with large ambitions that chronicles the lives of three upper-level executives at a Boston shipbuilding business after they’ve been laid off. It was timely, poignant and insightful – everything a best picture nominee should be.

What should get nominated: It was a terrific year for documentaries, as evidenced by the films short-listed by the Academy for consideration by voters. But if forced to choose, I’d give the five spots to “Inside Job,” which clearly and concisely exposed the thievery taking place on Wall Street; “The Tillman Story,” which examined the military’s exploitation of the combat death of former NFL safety Pat Tillman; “Restrepo,” which chronicled the 15-month deployment of a platoon of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan; “Exit Through the Gift Shop,” about a French immigrant’s obsession with street art in Los Angeles; and “Client 9,” which examined the rise and fall of former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer.

What will get nominated: Oscar voters tend to penalize docs like “Restrepo,” “Inside Job” and “The Tillman Story” that are both popular and controversial. So I wouldn’t be shocked if either one, or all three, fail to make the cut. That leaves “safe” films like “Waiting for Superman,” an indictment of public schools, “Waste Land,” about a photographer’s obsession with garbage, and “Exit Through the Gift Shop” to make the cut.

For your consideration: There was no real narrative and few words, but “Sweetgrass” managed to dazzle with the mere sight of thousands of sheep being herded through Montana. Simply breathtaking.

What should get nominated: Though over-praised, the heavy Oscar favorite, “Toy Story 3,” had its moments of splendor, especially in its final 30 minutes. Still, I think both “How to Train Your Dragon,” the story of a Viking boy befriending a wounded dragon, and “The Illusionist,” about a lonely, aging magician, were better movies because neither pandered to emotions as overtly as “TS3.” The only other entry on Oscar’s short list worth nominating is “Despicable Me.” The rest were either terrible or mediocre and totally undeserving of consideration.

What will get nominated: “How to Train Your Dragon,” “The Illusionist” and “Toy Story 3.”

For your consideration: It was far outside the mainstream, but the little French lark, “A Town Called Panic,” deserves credit for being more daring than any film on the list. With three plastic toys – Cowboy, Indian and Horse – as our guides, the film took one deliciously surreal turn after another.

Reach Al Alexander at aalexander@ledger.com.

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