Week 11 predictions: Ravens edge Steelers; Patriots top Colts

By Elliot Harrison

NFL.com Analyst

Published:
Nov. 15, 2012 at 12:27 p.m.

Updated:
Nov. 16, 2012 at 04:22 p.m.

So who do you like this weekend? More importantly, who is gonna tie?

OK, probably nobody. The St. Louis Rams and New York Jets might be able to make it happen. Shoot, with two backup quarterbacks potentially starting against two disruptive defenses in San Francisco, Candlestick could host its second tie in as many weeks.

At any rate, the 24-24 deadlock between the 49ers and Rams in Week 10 provided some drama without any payoff, and guaranteed the picks record in italics below will look weird for the rest of the season. It also showed that the Niners are vulnerable -- even when it comes to their secondary, which had been considered as formidable as any back four in the league. The tie also reflected the strides the Rams have made in their first year under Jeff Fisher.

I like St. Louis this week. And for all the Atlanta Falcons fans out there, there will be no letdown.

So let's get to it ...

Elliot Harrison went 8-5-1 on his predictions for Week 10, giving him a 66-31-1 record since taking over this space in Week 4. How will he fare in Week 11? His picks are below, with home teams listed second:

The
Cam Newton frowny face presses on. The
Tampa Bay Buccaneers will run the football to set up the vertical passing game for
Josh Freeman; that's where opportunities to win will lie for the Bucs. Opposing quarterbacks have compiled a 108.3 passer rating against the
Carolina Panthers when throwing the ball downfield 20 yards or more. Freeman has completed 17 passes of that distance for a league-high 700 yards. On the flip side, the Bucs' secondary has struggled, but Newton's accuracy issues and poor pass protection will keep him from capitalizing. Newton's completion percentage (57.2) ranks 29th in the NFL, and he hasn't made the kinds of big plays (like Freeman has) that can offset that low mark. Not to mention the fact that Carolina has been turning the ball over.
#TBvsCAR

The
Houston Texans pull away in the second half, with
Arian Foster leading the charge. While No. 23 has been exceptional, as per usual, he hasn't popped a long run in weeks. His last gallop of more than 21 yards came way back
on Oct. 8 versus the Jets (46 yards.) He is
due. This is the week. The
Texans shouldn't need
Matt Schaub to throw a ton. Anticipate a 17-for-23 day with two touchdowns and no picks. With the
Jacksonville Jaguars' offense being as dysfunctional as it has been -- see:
Blaine Gabbert's struggles (and injury) -- there's no reason for
Gary Kubiak's offense to take unnecessary risks.
#JACvsHOU

This feels like a Ryan-Sanchize-Fireman Guy rebound game. Except it's not. In fact, there won't be any fireman helmets in the stands, because this game is in St. Louis, where the
Rams' defense has played relatively well. The
Rams are giving up 18.5 points per game in the Edward Jones Dome, but they've yet to play an offense that is in as much disarray as the
New York Jets' unit. Well, they
did play the
Cardinals. That
31st-ranked offense is actually worse than New York's bunch, which cracks the top 30 ... at 30th. But
Rex Ryan's club makes up for its offensive ineptitude by playing some of the worst run defense in the league. I'm sure
Jeff Fisher won't try to exploit that at all.
#NYJvsSTL

Sunday1 PM ETFOX2227

Nick Foles gives it his best shot.
Andy Reid does his best to take
LeSean McCoy out of the game right after he rips off a 25-yard run. Did you know McCoy had four carries on the
Philadelphia Eagles' opening touchdown drive
versus Dallas? Reid gave him 12 the rest of the game. You know Reid's eyes are getting huge at the prospect of facing a
Washington Redskins secondary that hemorrhages yards and has rubber-stamped 20 touchdowns (tied for most in the league). Hopefully Reid will tap the brakes, realize he's got a third-round draft pick out there under center, and put the ball in McCoy's belly. #Run25
#PHIvsWAS

This AFC West bout is all about the quarterbacks. On one side is
Philip Rivers, a player who is being questioned from every corner about his decision-making ability and a noticeable regression. On the other is
Peyton Manning, who has also "regressed" ... back to MVP form. San Diego should give the
Broncos a game, but Denver's pass rush will present a problem for Rivers. The
Broncos' front seven got to
Cam Newton seven times last week. The
Chargers already have allowed 22 sacks, and they aren't utilizing
Ryan Mathews enough to make pass rushers slow their roll.
#SDvsDEN

Sunday4:25 PM ETCBS2436

Andrew Luck will make this one exciting for a while, but the
New England Patriots pull away in the fourth quarter on the strength of their up-tempo offense and
Stevan Ridley. Other than a dumb false-start penalty last Sunday, Ridley has been playing lights-out for
Bill Belichick. Do you realize he's fifth in the NFL in rushing with 814 yards, and easily leads all running backs in first downs (54)? Over 30 percent of his carries net his team a new set of downs. Luck will play well -- no one on the Pats can cover
Reggie Wayne -- but
the Indianapolis Colts' 22nd-ranked run defense will have its hands full with No. 22. #Ridley'sbelieveitornot OK, that was bad.
#INDvsNE

Sunday8:20 PM ETNBC2420

You're going to hear about "the best rivalry in football" so much this weekend that you'll want to puke. You'll hear about it more than you were inundated with
"Jerome Bettis is from Detroit!" during the week of
Super Bowl XL. ... More than you hear
" 'Tango & Cash' was on Spike last night!" ... More than you hear
"You know, Tom Brady was a sixth-round draft pick."

Well, it's tough to win when the
Baltimore Ravens are coming to town and former first-round draft pick Byron Leftwich is your quarterback. Baltimore's defense has struggled at times, but how much can the
Pittsburgh Steelers threaten with Leftwich, a running back-by-committee and a banged-up
Antonio Brown? Am I seeing this wrong? Feel free to feed back at
@Harrison_NFL.
#BALvsPIT

Monday8:30 PM ETESPN1420

Given the uncertainty at quarterback for both clubs, the outcome of this game is extremely difficult to divine. If
Jason Campbell starts, how much hope do the
Chicago Bears have? They're not getting enough from the running game to overcome a quarterback who's known more for "check-downs" than "first downs."
Colin Kaepernick is an unproven commodity for the
San Francisco 49ers, not a proven mediocre quarterback like Campbell. But how will he fare versus Chicago's swarming defense? Well, this nod is for the defense playing on its own field. Also, consider that Niners head coach
Jim Harbaugh probably won't let Kaepernick (or
Alex Smith) throw the ball enough to let the
Bears create the turnovers they thrive on.
#CHIvsSF

ALREADY COMPLETED

Thursday8:20 PM ETNFL Network2420

Ryan Tannehill hasn't been throwing interceptions all season. That's awesome for a rookie quarterback. Too bad he hasn't been throwing touchdown passes, either. He has five on the year. Tannehill suddenly became turnover-prone against the
Tennessee Titans, though, giving up three picks. Thursday night on NFL Network, he faces a
Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed opposing passers to post a 96.8 passer rating and score 18 touchdowns to just six interceptions. While I foresee
C.J. Spiller putting up 120 yards from scrimmage, I trust the
Miami Dolphins' defense to get back on track in Buffalo -- and
Reggie Bush to hold on to the football.
#MIAvsBUF