I fully agree to your rather pessimistic view on the outlook for Japan in general and the upcoming general election in particular. I myself have been pessimistic and fed up with the status quo, which is characterized by deflation and stagnation of the economy.

I suggest, however, that one should not underestimate Japan too much.

To become like Japanese has been a fashionable global trend after a bubble burst. Needless to say, the Euro area has been struggling for about 4 years to avert euro crisis, and I suspect the area will be trapped in a vicious cycle in which lost decades like Japan will be likely to be repeated there as well. Who knows the politically divided US will continue to be immune to such Japanization disease after a burst of supper housing bubble in the US.

Almost all economies are in so-called liquidity trap, and most politicians are obsessed with the excessive fiscal austerity measures. In this sense, Japan has been clearly the front runner of the game.

Nevertheless. I now see a different and rather optimistic picture for Japan' in the future. As the latest Q3GDP showed, the economy is very depressed, and the external environment is rather severe and hostile. Paradoxically speaking, Japan has no choice other than to take expansionary monetary and fiscal policies .

Abe, who is expected to become the new leader next month, is pro-growth advocate. His top priorities are three holds; stopping deflation, requesting 2 to 3% inflation target to BOJ, and promoting cost effective public works.

Now, one could argue that such policy package will be shot-lived, and Japan will repeat stop and go policies, which has been tried and failed in vain. I will not rule out such possibility, and that is a reason why I wish new government in Japan to adopt a nominal GDP level targeting policy together with the BOJ. Inflation targeting policy may not be enough, as the experience of the FED shows.

In any case, it seems to me that Japan at least will have a great opportunity in the near future to re-emerge as a leader of G-zero world. Please be reminded that Japan is the largest creditor in the world. What has been laking so far over the two lost decades, have been a good idea, as Mr, Keynes suggested.

I am looking forward to being shocked by a positive surprise in the near future. Underestimation of the largest creditor may turn out to be unwise.

Well. He is saying he will apply pressure to Bank of Japan to provide necessary cash for economic growth. He seems to be one of the few that has good macroeconomic strategy. Combination of financing by BOJ and public investment by the government will be a powerful engine for growth and unleash Japan's potential.

Even if Abe regains the premiership (which is likely) in the December elections, he does not seem to be able to do very much, especially in reviving the nation's lackluster economy or uniting the shattered political factions. He tried before. (btt1943, mtd1943)

Mr. Nakamaru has some high hopes. Japan has a lot of strength still but she had a lot more strength when the bubble started. Instead of facing up to the mistakes of incestuous stock holdings, the Tokyo University boys in the club have soft-pedaled the bubble down over two lost decades. The Zaibatsu corporations are world giants and they are in fact avoiding homeland so that their earned riches are running around their own global empires, not helping Japan much. Whatever stimuli in an aging population will not change Japan into growth. The government has such a heavy debt load that any massive public works programme will threaten the borrowing costs. As if there have not been enough infrastructural works. Even the reconstruction after the Tsunami is full of pork, leaving 300,000 still without housing and a projected insufficient funding to solve the problem. The fight over nuclear power is in a stalemate costing both options more each day. The voters, Mr. Nakamaru, are shamefully fickle. The Yakuza will siphon off more of the national expenditure into their own feudal mendacities. Hope alone? Spell out how each the major correction strokes requires and then you can see what chance of success there may be. Leadership is needed indeed.

The DPJ begins to be broken. Likewise, Japan in decline is broken and will end up by a failed state. In reality, most Japanese voters are badly puzzled by no political candidates to be voted. Japan in decline is amid the dangerous whirpool now. At worst, a newly emerging dictater like Tojo may appear, as seen in Mr. Abe and Mr. Ishihara as a popular nationalist, with the result that the postwar Japan may finish in a bankrupted and failed country once gain. This worst forecast seems the worst scenario for the Japanese peoples well as the new Chinese leaders, reminding the brutally cruel Japanese militarism. But Karl Maasrx said "the first time as tragedy ( leading the high economic growth during the postwar period by the 1980s ), the second as farce". Nonetheless, be carefully cautious!

It has been 3.5 years since Yukio Hatoyama led DPJ to win the election while ending the LDP’s long-term monopoly.

In 2009, a very richer Taro Aso lost the bet on the by-election. At the present, with few political grade, Yoshihiko Noda faced the similar kind of difficulties. At the beginning of DPJ’s governing, many Japanese should have expected the termination of game that “oligarchy-like” congressmen take “shogun’s toy” in turns all days. However, the scandal and the uncertainty of welfare policy helped increase the disapproval rate of governing DPJ. Half a year ago, the bill of raising consumption tax passed in parliament, making sure that DPJ has no road to return.

Soon, the original two-party system shook. Ichiro Ozawa, Taro Hashimoto and Ishihara Shintaro built castle who respectively formed Your Party, Japan Restoration Party and the Sunrise Party, in the process of recombination and for a third-force alliance. In the following 3-4 weeks, a certain scale of battle between daimin (local faction) is playing from Kanton to Kansei, or from Hokkaido to Okinawa.

On Monday, according to NHK World, cabinet support rate hit new low at 22% and a disapproval rate reached a new high 61%. This terrible number showed the formidable DPJ that is hard to continue its regime. On the next government, 7 percent favored a Democratic Party-led government; 22 percent said they want a government led by the Liberal Democrats; 30 percent chose a grand coalition of the 2 parties while 26 percent wanted other parties to take power.

From the above number of public poll, Shinzo Abe may return to the seat of prime minister. In terms of interior politics, as Asahi Suimbun reported, he called for easy monetary policy and aggressive moves against deflation have driven up stock prices and hammered down the yen’s value. By contrast, Abe’s right-winged style is unwelcomed in Asian nation. Yesterday, Abe announced the plan of “possible recovery” of long-range missile with nuclear power and the thought of atomic bomb. Besides his grandfather’s (Kishi Nobushuki) negative sound of world war two, Abe faced the diplomatic difficulties although he can be smoothly elected.

Japan’s government derives from the system of cabinet; therefore, the aspect of party are more important than that of personal style while running election. Therefore, the unity of interior party are key point of winning election. Yesterday, Yukio Hatoyama decided not to run the election. This is a sorrow if looking back on a victory photo in 2009’s August, in contrast of Taro Aso in the shadows. There is few prime minister in Japan’s history owning conspicuous political grade. The economic growth with right-winged ideology is deduced from LDP’s political guideline as DPJ is inclined to pay attention to social welfare. But Noda did against the previous commitment in 2009’s alteration of party in congress. The bad credit and stagnant political practise have Japanese ordinary vote back to LDP. During Noda’s 1.5-year tenure, he seems to know the only that walk away but lose the truth of democratic politics.

Now, Noda is walking on a way of road hog. More unfortunately, he must be working hard in Tokyo’s Chibaken, as he did during the past several years, but he must schedule Tokyo’s Disney Resort more for the full-dimensional electorate. Instead of a strong leader, Japan nowadays needs a long-life government which steers in the Pacific Ocean peacefully with America and China.

Everyone owns the right of choosing the better atmosphere politically; moreover, everything meets their time while fading away. I’m so impressed of Koizumi Junichiro’s splendid dynasty - although Yasohiro’s offensive language - about the continuous economic growth and the entertainment-stylish political means. Few prime minister like him watched both interior and foreign affair on balance. For China’s development, Yukio Hatoyama and Naoto Kan were the better leader, who can ease tension, than most of previous prime minister. Both of DPJ’s prime minister haven’t special interest in that temple, practicing the politics of Tokugawa’s Edo-era style .

As a whole, Japanese wanted to recover “the stability” 10 years ago compromising between the ideal and the reality. The decline of Japan’s economy is going on, keeping away from the “Yamato Nadeshiko” (The gold fan in Nippon) played mainly by Matsushima Nanako whose role was finally married to a fisherman, rather than any fish in the gold house or luxrious limousine, from the chase for fantastic livings to the state of common place. With Misia’s “Everything” - even Julee Karan’s newly-released Jazz version, remember the good time again and get the “greater feeling of missing you” - even with a little pain in the chest. Yeah, white lies are never euphoria lasting forever while standing by anyone who you love is the good.