As China and India intensify their border disputes, experts believe there will be implications in various sectors of Nepal

Although Nepal
Government has maintained its neutrality over the border disputes between two
of its immediate neighbors, the standoff will intensify their security concern
in Nepal and an unexpected internal turmoil may be likely.

As Nepal has been
passing through its own internal political disorder with restructuring of state
institutions, including the local level administrative and internal security
units, credible institutions to allay the concerns of the two neighbors are far
from ready.

India, which has been
always wary about Chinese activities in Nepal as a major threat to its
security, has revived its intelligence wing to closely monitor Nepal’s internal
situation.

According to Indian
media reports, India has revived its five-decade-old intelligence and combat
units in order to keep a tab on Chinese maneuvers in countries like Nepal and
Bhutan. The separate units will be part of the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), which
guards the borders with the two countries.

According
to Russian Media Sputnik, in December last year, Sputnik had reported that the
Indian government was considering to revive the 50-year-old SSB intelligence
wing, following increased Chinese activities in New Delhi’s extended
neighborhood. The action was initiated after SSB had raised concerns before the
government about China's project development and other activities across the
border.

"The
border [with Nepal] is very sensitive and the influence of elements of various
types in these areas has mushroomed… we have proposed to have our full-fledged
intelligence wing in the force," Archana Ramasundaram, Director General,
Sashastra Seema Bal, said back then.

“The
decision to raise combat intelligence services is based on the 54-year-old
Special Service Bureau which worked on the principle of 'recruit locally, train
locally and deploy locally'. The new service will have a larger objective than
its predecessor and it is most likely that the forces belonging to this service
would be deployed in the neighboring countries in quest,” writes Sputnik.

Although
Chinese have not officially announced deployment of any such security agencies,
they will likely respond given their concern on the large number of Tibetan
Refugees living in Nepal and India and open border between the two.

Chinese
security experts see Tibetan Refugees and open border between Nepal and India as
a major threat to their soft security belly. With a long political
interference, Nepal’s only internal security wing is stuck in promotion row.
Although new home minister Janardan Sharma Prabhakar promoted all the senior
officers in vacant posts, it will take months to see the results in the field.

Given
Nepal’s growing international connections and open border over 1600
kilometers, Nepal’s two neighbors will likely intensify the subversive as well
as open activities.

“In
the fifty years long history of state building in Nepal, this is one of the
most fragile periods. As Nepal’s political and internal security position is in
the process of evolution, it will be natural for two neighbors to rely on their
own apparatus,” said a senior retired police officer on condition of anonymity.

Nepal’s
Position

With
equally good relations with both the neighbors, Nepal has maintained its
neutrality in these disputes. Despite the standoff taking place just a few hundred miles away from Nepal’s border, Nepal has just remained is tight
lipped.

As the
reports come out, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is preparing for his first
visit to India upon the invitation of
Indian prime minister Narnedra Modi in the middle of August.

“Nepal
has good relations with both the neighbors. We hope that the border disputes
between the two neighbors will settle soon and there will prevail peace and tranquility in the region,” said a senior official at the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs asking not be named.

Although
officially India has not said anything about Nepal, Indian media see Nepal’s
position with suspicion blaming it for playing “China Card.” Given the weak government and fragile political situation, Nepal does not have any one to assure credibly to India
and China that Nepal cannot play on against the other.

With
suspicious remarks coming in the media, Nepal’s position is much vulnurable in
the present context.