So, I’ll make that my rule of thumb: if at least one-third of your games is as a starter, you classify as a starter. Otherwise, you are a reliever. (This of course is based on the idea that you only want two buckets.)

***

This only applies to the recent seasons. If I go back one more year, I get almost 50%.”

“But, what about a player who’s never played MLB? Where’s his forecast?” That’s simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel’s official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.”

]]>By: stevesommer05http://gashousegraphs.com/2010/01/12/marcel-and-the-cardinals/#comment-166
stevesommer05Wed, 13 Jan 2010 04:20:45 +0000http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/?p=628#comment-166I think you are correct in that it doesn’t include minor league stats. IIRC it uses league average for all players with no MLB experience, and would just heavily regress for someone with nominal MLB experience. I’ll do a little digging.
]]>By: erikhttp://gashousegraphs.com/2010/01/12/marcel-and-the-cardinals/#comment-165
erikWed, 13 Jan 2010 03:49:27 +0000http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/?p=628#comment-165I’m not sure either. I think it just uses straight MLEs, but I don’t know.
]]>By: azruavatarhttp://gashousegraphs.com/2010/01/12/marcel-and-the-cardinals/#comment-164
azruavatarWed, 13 Jan 2010 03:28:53 +0000http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/?p=628#comment-164And I take that back given that it’s projecting Freese. I need to revisit how Marcel deals with minor league players.
]]>By: azruavatarhttp://gashousegraphs.com/2010/01/12/marcel-and-the-cardinals/#comment-163
azruavatarWed, 13 Jan 2010 03:27:52 +0000http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/?p=628#comment-163That puts Holliday at or above 4.5 WAR for next year (assuming neutral defense).

Marcel doesn’t incorporate any minor league stats (IIRC) so it’s going to be more negative on Rasmus than other projection systems. I’d love to see him bust out and put all the projections to shame.