Intel ends Tick-Tock processor release cycle

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The way in which Intel releases new generations of processor family is well known and referred to as the Tick-Tock cycle. It’s a two year cycle, with the Tick reducing the size of the die, and the Tock being an optimization year where we see performance improvements and lower power chips, but the die size stays the same.

Intel’s last Tick moved chips from a 22nm down to a 14nm die size. The next die shrink will be to 10nm, but making that shift and going even smaller beyond that has proved incredibly difficult. So difficult in fact, that Intel has decided to stop using the Tick-Tock release cycle. Instead, we’re getting a Process-Architecture-Optimization (PAO) cycle. Effectively, Intel has slowed the die shrink roll out by a third, meaning we’ll only see it happen every three years.

In real terms this means Intel’s processors will continue to provide performance and power gains each year, but at a slower rate. We’ve actually already experienced this slow down when Intel delayed the move to 10nm earlier this year and instead announced Kaby Lake as a third 14nm processor family for 2016.

While this could be viewed as a major blow to Intel’s future business, Intel doesn’t view it that way. This change isn’t being made for business purposes, it’s because processor manufacturing is becoming increasingly difficult, not just for Intel, but for everyone. So while Intel is slowing down the performance gains, the company still believes it will have a competitive advantage going forward as everyone else will face the same problems.

Samsung and TSMC may not agree, especially TSMC as it plans to launch 7nm chips in 2018 and hit 5nm by 2020. We’ll have to wait and see if that actually happens, and even then, they won’t be desktop and mobile chips competing with Intel’s Core offerings.

However processor manufacturing pans out over the next decade, one thing is for sure: Tick-Tock is dead and Moore’s Law is certainly on rocky ground.