Monday, May 02, 2011

Here’s what I can’t get past – 94 wins.

I watch the games. I can read the stats. I’ve seen the ineptitude and the disabled list and the standings and the anger. I’ve seen that it isn’t just that they’re losing, it’s how they’re losing. And still, I keep coming back to:

94 wins. That’s how many wins the Twins had last year, and this is essentially the same team. The rotation is almost exactly the same. The lineup, except for a couple of middle infielders, is the same. The bullpen is not, but the bullpen hasn’t been a huge problem. So how has this team gone from a team that legitimately won 94 games last year to a team that looks THIS hapless.

Let’s see if we can find out. We’ll start with the offense today….

Last year’s Twins team ranked 5th in the American League in offense, scoring 781 runs, or 4.82 per game. This year’s Twins team ranks last with 85 runs, which is an average of just 3.15 per game. At that rate, the Twins would score 270 runs less than last year. It would also be slightly less than Seattle’s impotent offense last year, which was damn near historical, and one hundred runs less than any other American League team.

But the makeup of the offense hasn’t changed that much from last year. The only regulars missing are JJ Hardy, who ranked 10th in Runs Created on the team, and Orlando Hudson, who ranked 8th. Together, those two were worth about 105 runs – and some of those should be made up by Alexi Casilla and the mix of second basemen. So what’s going on?

Certainly injuries are part of the problem. The Twins top two offensive producers last year (again, using Runs Created) were Delmon Young and Joe Mauer – and they’re both out right now. Justin Morneau, despite missing half the season, was also a huge run producer, accounting for 75 runs, good for 5th on the team, and he’s missed time this year, too. Jim Thome has also been out for almost a week and ranked seventh last year. Add up those four guys, and they were responsible for about 325 runs last year. That’s some big time pain.

But on top of that, all those guys, and several more, are really struggling. The stories stack on top of each other when you look at how each position is hurting

OPS by position:

At third base, Danny Valencia provided a huge boost last year, making up for miserable performances from Nick Punto and Brendan Harris. This year he has the position all to himself, but he’s hitting .211 instead of .311.

At first base, Morneau, even when healthy, has been a shell of himself. He’s hitting .225, just hit his first homerun and has an OPS of 625.

At shortstop, Casilla has been the whipping boy lately, mostly because of his defense. It’s worth noting that Punto hit really well when filling in for Hardy at shortstop last year. The Twins don’t have either Punto or Hardy this year, and Casilla’s 543 OPS is, sadly, pulling the average up at that position.

In left field, Young had a terrible start to the year, going from an 826 OPS to a 567 OPS at just 25 years old. And then he got hurt.

At second base, you wouldn’t necessarily expect Hudson’s departure to hurt the team too much offensively, considering how much time Michael Cuddyer has spent there. But NOBODY has hit well while playing second base – it’s been the second least productive spot on the team.

You might be surprised to see that designated hitter has been so dismal, given Jason Kubel’s hot start (916 OPS). But Kubel has only started there six games (and not hit when he has). Combine Thome’s semi-slow start (708 OPS) along with a general lack of depth due to injuries, and designated hitter has been the second biggest disappointment on the team.

But the biggest disappointment on the team is also the least productive spot – catcher. Last year, Mauer’s 905 OPS at the position offset the other catchers and raised the group’s OPS to 795. This year? Mauer struggled early, Steve Holm is hitting .118, and Drew Butera just .106.

Blink. Blink.

Suddenly, I’m kinda craving a catcher who only hits .320 without much power.

Of course the reverse analysis could be used with the surprising teams in the Central this first month of the season. Cleveland is basically the same ball club that fought the Royals for last place in 2010, or at least that's what some Tribe fans have been saying. So I guess it cuts both ways.

This years Twins are being somewhat predictable. We got a lot more out of Delmon, Valencia, Pavano, and Thome last season than we expected, so it should not surprise anyone if they don't reach those heights again this year. I think it was a hopeful long shot that they would all repeat 2010 anyway, most expected some reduction in stats. We knew the starting rotation, bullpen, and middle infield were huge question marks in spring training. We knew we had zero depth anywhere except a 6th SP. This season is unpredictably bad, but many rightfully predicted it would not be good either.

Oh, and add Matt Capps to the list of 2010 overachievers. We sure hoped Morneau and Nathan would return, but it's not a major surprise to anyone that they are struggling either. Seems like Twins brass expected it too, retaining reliever Capps in spite of the 7 mil pricetag.