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Thursday, January 2

Written By: Scott HetskoThis storm has surpassed even the higher end of our expectations last night. Towns near and North of 104 have recorded nearly 20" of snow and a few may end up with 24" by Friday morning. The city has a solid foot or more now with moderate snow and wind gusts near 30 mph at 8 p.m. We expect another solid 3-6" of fluffy snow to fall from 8 p.m. until 6 a.m. in the area with the highest amounts occurring in towns North of the thruway.This event will probably go down as the one to remember this season given the duration and amounts. Roads will remain snow covered and slick through much of Friday even when the snow ends. Temperatures will stay in the single digits all day tomorrow with wind chills between 0 and -15. The record minimum high for Friday is 8 degrees set in 1981.Stay safe and enjoy the storm you all wanted!

Maybe not. I went out and shoveled around 8pm and took several measurement and most was 8-9". I know there is no water content in this snow so it will compact pretty quickly, but it makes it hard to take a measurement. Unless you are in an area where you are sheltered from the wind it is hard to know how much you received.

Snowdog, very hard to tell how much snow has fallen. I live in Hilton, 1/4 mile from the lake. I can see grass in my yard in spots, and other spots I have drifts, no joke, 5ft deep up to the center of my chest.

Do want to say that I was right on with the underestimation of ratios and lake enhancement with this storm. If you look back I was saying 12-18 could easily happen with this storm. Just an FYI for possible future storms.

Ha ha no that is me the correct anon. David what is your gut feeling about Monday? Btw I am also the anon who said I feel the arctic cold is being underestimated. I think it is going to be brutal Tuesday morning with air temps and WC.

I didn't get a snowfall measurement in Hamlin. I will say it is DEEP in town where it wasn't drifting. North side of town very windy with lots of blowing and drifting. Much more snow, cold and WIND to come next week. The wind early next week may cause some big time blowing and drifting problems in open areas, it looks to get VERY windy Monday and Tuesday.

Hats off to Scott and News 8 for sticking to there guns and flat out going against everything the NWS was saying earlier this week! This was ambitious storm that hopefully made us bloggers remember what winter is really like in WNY. I agree with "The Real Anon" about the arctic air being underestimated next week, but time will tell. Too early to peg the next storm so I'm just going to wait for News 8 to forecast this one! I think it'll be a decent storm, but not as big as this one... And for those who love saying NBD all the time, look out your windows when you get a chance.

The next storm has still get my full attention. This storm deeps VERY rapidly just north of us. If we get 6 inches of new snow with 40mph winds with deep snowpack of 12-20 inches already on the ground. That has the making of blizzard conditions in north Hamlin could be a VERY big deal. I am done for now, 3am come way to early after plowing 18hrs.

The GFS has really trended West like the EURO. Not sure we will get much snow out of that one. The BIG story next week will be the cold and Heavy lake effect east of the lakes again. They will most likely be measuring in feet again.

Hopefully for me, east becomes northeast. The GFS is hinting at that, but one little wind vector right over Lake Erie on the IWM map keeps insisting on being westerly in what looks like a mean WSW flow and it's really frigging obnoxious. I really hope the lake effect delivers for me, today's storm was pretty weak here in B-lo and I feel like I missed out because this thing happened during my break from college instead of 2 weeks ago when I was in ROC, or 3 weeks from now when I'll be returning. Would be digging out from well over a foot it either of those things were the case.

The NAM, GFS and EURO all have the same track right over lake Erie and a weaker storm at that. The EURO is much stronger but I think it will come in line with the other models in time as a weaker storm.

Definitely stronger, and as a result further west. We want the storm to be weaker so it doesn't curve as quickly. Kind of an unfortunate position to be in...if we want a decent snowfall we have to sacrifice storm strength, and by extension heavier snowfall. In short, we must sacrifice snow to gain snow. Paradoxical conundrum indeed...

Still snowing lightly and windy in Hamlin. It does appear the track maybe to far west for big snows, the winds will still be a concern though. Back to back big snow events would have been a lot to ask for. Either way we are going to be very busy in Hamlin if the winds keep blowing lots of drifting.

NWS not completely giving up on the snow potential. From the latest discussion:

"DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER PUSHING SOME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY BE DELAYED A BIT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. BEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT...ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL A PRETTY GOOD BET."

Doesn't really make sense to me since I looked at several pieces of guidance last night and none of them indicated advisory criteria snowfall anywhere in NYS. From a brief glimpse it looks like everything stood pat as well, perhaps moving a bit farther NW. I even saw indications of plain rain for eastern sections of the CWA. I think whoever made this forecast has been hitting the bong too hard lately. Maybe one of our pros will come along and state otherwise, but for now I'm going with the space adventure theory.

well here in Ontario I have a flat surface in the middle of my yard with no drifting and that surface has 20 inches considering that some of the snow probably got blown off of it due to the winds last night I would say we are probably close to 2 ft

Does anyone know what the airport recorded as the officail amount. In talking with friends and family who live in areas that people stated received 2 ft they stated that was not the case. That is why I question the average Joe measurements that state they received 2ft of snow. I have a friend who lives up by the lake and they said they picked up 10-12 inches. This was in Irondequoit. I question how you could have measured the snow since it was blowing so much.

Snowdog, I'm not trying to be disrespectful here but does it really matter if their measurements might be a little off? You have doubted them several times now. Maybe they are spot on and it was zipcode type accumulations? I say let them have their measurements whatever they may be. We can't all be the big winners. I'm just glad the ground is covered and this blog is happy again!

Snowdog you might be the most negative person on this blog...honestly all you do is doubt doubt doubt...I have 22 inches in my back yard and I have measured in 4 different areas...stop crying over peoples accumulation measurements...it doesn't affect you in any way, so why cry about it all the time???

This guy is the most pessimistic person I've ever seen. If you gave him a dollar, he'd complain that you didn't give him $1.10. How about you get off your lazy rear, drive out to the lakeshore in Ontario, get a ruler and measure for yourself.

I live in Sodus and we got quite a bit. Not sure how much, but my guess would be its easily 2ft maybe more. Its blowing everywhere. so I couldn't measure. Anyone in the Sodus area get a measurement that was not a drift?

Accuweather for what it is worth has us close to the heaviest snow range. Buffalo in that range but we get 3-6 with a burst of heavy snow Sunday night with winds and cold temps making things tough again according to them.

I had a chance to go out and measure in NE Fairport and we have on average about 9"-10" in total on the ground with as little as 5" and as much as 12" in spots. My neighborhood is always a little windy so snow measurements are a bit unreliable.

Snowdog not sure what you are looking at? I do not see 8 inches on GFS and do not see much of any snow at all. Also not sure what local met you are talking with but all models have the LP going to our west?

I cannot wait to see how much the tug hill and East of Lake Erie receive next week. They could be measuring in feet on a westerly wind. It does look like we could have some rain Sunday. How quickly things change.

Sleet and freezing rain could be an issue from Roc west toward Buffalo Sunday and Sunday night. Slightest shift to the east of LP will make all the difference for mixed precipitation. Both 12Z and 18Z GFS have trended slightly east. I still would not rule out accumulating snow yet, models have taken along time to nail storm tracks this season. Who knows?

This morning I am ready to throw the towel in. EURO, GEM, NAM, and 06Z GFS all take LP just west. Little snow for this storm for WNY. Very cold and windy Monday and Tuesday. Without high pressure overhead it might not drop to record cold lows. Day time highs look to be low single digits Tuesday. The rain Sunday will help compact the snow pack so it wont blow around as much Monday and Tuesday.

I will be honest this bitter cold is for the birds. My furnace was non-stop last night. I am glad this next arctic blast is fleeting and not to return for some time. I love the snow but not the bitter cold. I hear my hard earned money going away every time the furnace goes on. LOL. It looks to remain pretty active especially East of the lakes with heavy lake effect snow in the favored snow belts. Maybe we will get the next one.

That was yesterdays 18Z and 00Z GFS run predictions. Todays 06Z and 12Z GFS runs are right in line with the EURO. 00Z GEM and 00Z NAM are further west yet. Today I would definitely say mix of rain snow possible changing to all rain late Sunday then back to all snow Monday with falling temps and lots of wind. Minimal snowfall I would say.

Your right HP, that tweet from KP is 12 hours old. My bad. It would have been nice if we had back to back snowstorms. Looks like Detroit is in the bulls eye for big snow. I would imagine they and other cities west of us, between heavy snow, high winds and record cold will shut down schools and maybe some businesses for a day or two.

Our wind chills are forecasted in the Wind Chill Watch text to be as low as -30 at times early next week. Schools and businesses will certainly shut down around here too. Even without much snow the weather could still get very difficult to deal with, if not downright dangerous.

This is a miss for us too bad it did not track 100 oir so miles east then we could have been in the 6-12 range foe snow. instead yucky rain and conditions will be fine. The schools and businesses will not shut down so not sure why Anon 11:56 is being an alarmist. There has not been any weather update about potential dangerous conditions. It is Saturday right? Please be careful Anon. to not jump the gun and make people worried when you use dangerous conditions phrase.

There calling for 2ft or more of Lake effect East of Lake Ontario and a ft or more in Buffalo and South of Buffalo. Little if any snow for the rest of us next week. It also looks to warm up by next weekend I believe.

They explicitly state that the wind chills will be at dangerous levels. And in my experience schools and businesses typically begin closing for wind chills around -15 and lower. This is NOT alarmism, this is reality.

Depends on what part of the Buffalo area you're talking about. The southernmost suburbs are usually hit on a 260 degree (WSW to W) flow. The nearby southern suburbs into the eastern suburbs, as well as South Buffalo cash in on a 250 degree (WSW) flow, while the northern suburbs and North Buffalo are the bullseye with a 240 degree (SW to WSW) flow. The going forecast calls for a mean 260 flow with backing and veering at times, but I have enough experience following these setups to believe it'll be closer to 255 in the end, with an outside shot at 250 if the westward trend with this weekend's storm continues (it will be the catalyst for the lake effect, the further west in Canada it ends up the closer to SW the mean flow will be). With how strong the wind will be there's a good chance some of it will reach the Rochester area, but in a weaker state.

Scott, about a week ago as this last mess was developing you hinted at a Jan thaw-- a ray of hope. I see on various forecasts (NWS) that this appears to be a reality. Do you have any feeling for how long lived and how strong a warm up we might expect? It would be nice to get a week above freezing to get rid of some of this mess before the next round of misery sets in. Any chance??

The expectation is 1-2 ft in areas East of Lake Erie and 3-4 ft in areas East of Lake Ontario. Wow!!!!! The talk out of the NWS is that we will be in a warming trend by next weekend. Not sure how long it will last. probably not long..

There it is, right in front of you for your own eyes to see. And in it there is this statement:

"HAZARDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS."

You don't need a local outlet to tell you that low single digit temps combined with 25-30 mph winds will make it dangerous to be outside at times. You don't even need to think about it, it's written right there in plain English, straight from the National Weather Service. Any local outlets who don't at least bring this up are doing the public a tremendous disservice IMO.

Just as bad as Accuweather huh? I am currently under a Lake Effect Snow Watch and forecasted by the National Weather Service to receive over a foot of snow, from what will without a doubt be a favorable (for me) WSW flow over Lake Erie through early Wednesday. All three local media outlets where I am are hinting at the same, as are WPC and the COOP snowfall mean from the St. Louis University CIPS Analog website. Accuweather has me getting...flurries. Accuweather also has me getting 3-6 inches of snow from Sunday's storm, when most other forecasts are calling for mainly rain. Wow.

That 40 on Monday is going to be an early high temp. And by early I mean overnight, after which the temperature is predicted to drop like a rock, all the way down into the single numbers by early Tuesday. We will stay in the single digits through early Wednesday with steady wind speeds of 25-30 mph, which will produce, once again, "...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS." So there you have it, written in plain English AGAIN.

I think you are right Anon. I believe our local mets are underestimating the cold coming. There are predicted low temps in Florida for the 20s so I think it drops a great deal south. Channel 13 had lows at 2 for Tuesday morning and I think that is kind but who knows. I do know our local people do not see concerned about the cold.

I'm mainly concerned that some elderly folks especially are going to wander outside thinking it'll be completely manageable, and end up keeling over from exposure. These will be the kind of wind chills that can lead to frostbite in a matter of only 15 minutes. Remember, that old lady who froze to death in Byron was outside in much less brutal wind chills than the ones we'll be feeling.

Please don't mislead people like this. Even if forecasted temps moderate a few degrees before Tuesday morning we'll still be dealing with dangerous wind chills. This is like saying "the massive wildfire is now a bit smaller than before." It make no practical difference.

ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY...8 TO 16 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...11 TO 21 INCHES TUESDAY...4 TO 8 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND 3 TO 5 WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF MORE THAN 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

Still think the air temperature will be colder than what is posted on this weather site and 10s. The winds will be strong and it will be as Anon said earlier very dangerous Tuesday morning and during the day. Again not sure why there is no update.

Wow, Monroe County is now under a lake snow advisory and high wind warning. The heaviest snow will be on the west side, but I'm assuming the wind direction must be aligned to give us Lake Erie effect snow. With that kind of wind and dry snow, I could see whiteouts being a problem. Factor in the wind chill and it could be interesting around here for a few days.

Back from camp in Oswego County. We put 500 miles on the snowmobiles since 1/1. We went through an unbelievable stretch of cold…from 7:00pm Thursday 1/2 until 10:00pm Friday 1/3, we were below 0 F the entire time. Lowest temp. was -13 F early Friday morning. Amazing!

The news 8 team is probably too busy looking at Stacey's vacation pictures and could give two shirts about this blog anymore. They used to have a fresh post everyday a year or so back. Glad to see that those who know about weather keep us updated tho. Thanks to those who actually contribute!

Well I really dont blame news 8 since most of the people in here cant even go a few days without complaining. We have people complaining that we are not going to get a ft of snow this storm when we just had a huge storm with 20+ inches in some areas in just 36 hours.

Okay I am ready for the snow again. Second straight day we have reached 40 deg in Hamlin, BORING. I will admit I am disappointed that this storm went west. It had the potential to produce VERY difficult winter condition, instead BORING!!! I believe the local mets are also equally disappointed that is why there is no blogging.

Again I do not want to question Anon but still not seeing the cold being that bad. Have not heard one local met concerned about it? Not sure what the models are saying about this potential arctic assault? Does anyone have model information on the cold?

Last Friday was cold and it felt even colder. Tuesday is going to be EVEN COLDER than Friday with STRONGER WINDS. Tuesday morning might be very tricky on the southwest side of Roc with heavy LES possibly as far NE as western half of Monroe county. I would say highs Tuesday will be about as cold as daytime highs in WNY get.

Seriously not an update from anyone on the News 8 team? You can be mad at some of the negative people on here but there are many on here that are positive and rely on the News 8 team and appreciate their forecasts.

The core of the arctic air is going to dive to the west of our region to start. It will be SLIGHTLY modified by the time it gets to the Roc. area. Area in south WNY area expected to be even colder than Roc.

South western Monroe will probably get into accumulating LES, but MUCH less than southwestern counties. Would not be surprised if SW Monroe gets a quick 3-6+ if winds align right. Similar to early season band which went all the way to Wayne county.