Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call

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Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 28 "independent" and 39 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

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As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $15.11 on revenue of $58.84 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $13.45 on $54.74 billion in revenue. Across all analysts, the median expectation is for earnings of $14.20 on $55.96 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 10% and 30% respectively. 2011's holiday quarter was the strongest in the company's history.

Last quarter the company earned $8.2 billion in profit on revenue of $36 billion. For this quarter, Apple issued guidance of $52 billion in revenue with profits of $11.75 per share. The company has, in the past, exceeded its guidance by a significant margin.

Apple will announce its earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2013 (fourth calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

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You can clearly see on that graph why Q3 '12 was considered a miss. It was really the first time in quite a while that Apple came so close to their own guidance and one of the only times "Pro Analysts" were so over the actual earnings.

But for this quarter, Q1 '13 ? Forget it, holidays/iPhone 5 launch/iPad Mini ramp up ? It's going to be a good one for Apple no doubt.

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In '11 revenues were a bit over $25B. In '12 revenues were bit over $45B. Based on this vastly over simplified trend it may be a bit over $65B this quarter. Since Apple traditionally beats even the most optimistic estimates this quarter, it is not out of bounds to happen. This ought to add $13-15B to cash.

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I am prepared to see the stock tumble like a rock no matter what Apple post because the trend in the market is to find anything negative about Apple and focus on that.

Even if numbers are stellar guidance for next quarter will be low and the market will focus on that and the stock will drop like a rock. If not right away over the next week or so after a possible initial rise on a great (not good) earnings report. If the earning report is on target or under... Then expect a huge massive drop in after hours... either way the momentum of the market is not favorable and Apple will drop.

The only way they can sustain upward momentum right now is an out of the world quarter, and heavenly guidance for next quarter. Without these the market will lose faith... They need to see a new product to get inspired.

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This is great to see for but the Stock Market has nothing to do with a company's performance in well over a decade.

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True enough. It's like the difference between sports rooting and sports gambling. The Boston Fan is elated that the Celtics won in overtime. The Boston Gambler is furious that they didn't cover the spread.

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Two big things to be mindful of is how much of the device pie the lower priced 4/4S and the Mini took from their larger and higher end couter parts and how this might have affected margins as a whole. I await the results today to see how my options will fare... and stock in general.

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It looks like the independent analysts got cocky after 2011 and didn't know when to scale back.

I remember how their unbridled enthusiasm kept giving them 'wins' over the pros quarter after quarter, but now looking at this graph I can see that they weren't really smarter, just more optimistic. In 2011 that worked for them. In 2012 it didn't.

Looks like neither side is really better at predicting the future than the other. Imagine that.

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