If our words had any power, we would think that we reverse jinxed Barry Zito before Game 5. We cavalierly tweeted “Over/under on Zito’s walks tonight: 3.” Silly us. The wacky Giant left-hander went on to baffle Cardinal batters, striking out six and walking only one, en route to blanking the Cardinals 5-0 Friday night at Busch Stadium.

Given Zito’s recent history — walk rates of 3.79, 4.02 and 3.42 over the past three seasons — one might be forgiven for thinking that a mediocre start was in the offing for Zito. But the pitcher is certainly capable of throwing a game like he did Friday, when he registered a 63 fielding-independent game score. True, he had the lowest average FIGS on the season of any of the Giant rotation. But he is also fairly volatile, meaning that, though he can hurl some clunkers — his low on the season was a 20 FIGS — he can also toss a gem. Giant starters by their volatility (measured as standard deviation of their 2012 FIGS):

Low game

High game

Stdev

Avg

Cain

17

88

15.6

52

Bumgarner

21

71

14.8

51

Lincecum

17

73

13.1

46

Zito

20

63

11.9

45

Vogelsong

24

68

9.5

50

Conversely, the Giants’ Game 6 starter, Ryan Vogelsong, is the team’s most consistent starting pitcher, and a pretty good one at that (the rotation’s third-best average FIGS). The Cardinals can expect a solid game Sunday.

So what about the Cardinal starters, who boasted the NL’s second-best FIP in 2012?

Low game

High game

Stdev

Avg

Wainwright

25

75

12.8

53

Lynn

14

77

12.5

52

Lohse

23

65

10.5

51

Carpenter

46

54

3.4

49

Their best pitcher, Adam Wainwright, is also their most volatile, as evidenced by even his two most recent playoff performances (24 FIGS and 53 FIGS, respectively). And Vogelsong’s opposite number on the mound is Chris Carpenter, who, like Vogelsong, is his team’s most reliable, though we should point out that Carp’s numbers are based on only three starts.

So if all goes according to form, Game 6 will be a pairing of evenly matched, reliable pitchers. As surprising as Zito’s Game 5 was, don’t expect Game 6 to offer anything quite so out of the ordinary.

This entry was posted by Pip
on Saturday, October 20th, 2012 at 5:16 pm and is filed under analysis.
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