Friday, April 4, 2014

Even though Gen Pervez Musharraf has finally been indicted on five
charges of treason by the Special Court constituted to try him, the
widespread feeling within Pakistan and beyond is that this is probably
as far as the civilian government could go against the ex-military
strongman. As the argument goes, having made history - Musharraf is the
first Pakistani military dictator to stand trial, it is time for all
sides to back-off because the case has reached its ‘logical conclusion’.

For now, it is a win-win for all sides: the Nawaz Sharif government
and the judiciary can claim to have made an example of Musharraf without
being too bloody-minded and vengeful; the army can pat itself on the
back for not having obstructed justice or destabilising the civilian
government and at the same time managing to protect its former chief
from being humiliated; Musharraf can boast about how he boldly faced the
courts – it is another matter that he once virtually ran away from one
court and then feigned illness to avoid appearing before the Special
Court for weeks. Speculation is rife that within the next few days
Musharraf will be allowed to leave Pakistan with either his mother’s
hospitalisation or his own health becoming the excuse, to not return
ever or at least until a more friendly dispensation assumes power in
Islamabad. If indeed he gets out of Pakistan, the civilian government
will not only have avoided any unintended consequences emanating from
this treason trial, but also have got rid of a somewhat unnecessary
distraction at a time when it is confronted with monumental economic and
security challenges.

But things are a little more complicated than what the win-win
situation would seem to suggest. Even though Musharraf’s exit from
Pakistan works for all the players, the problem is not just that someone
has to make a call to let Musharraf go, but also that whoever makes
this call will also have to take a fall, if not a tumble, for Musharraf.
This really is the nub of the problem and unless this is sorted out
soon – the window of opportunity to send Musharraf out before the
treason trial gathers pace will not remain open for very long – a
situation could develop where, despite their reluctance, all the players
are pushed by the force and logic of circumstances and their own stated
positions in a direction that leads to Musharraf’s conviction and
worse.

Until his indictment, Musharraf was placed on the Exit Control List
(ECL) which prevented him from leaving Pakistan. The government claimed
that removing his name from the ECL could only be done by the courts.
But the Special Court has ruled that this is a call that the government
has to take, which it is quite understandably unwilling to do. Nawaz
Sharif knows that letting Musharraf go at this stage would open him to
an unbearable political attack by the opposition parties. Just as Nawaz
Sharif and his party used the Guard of Honour given to Musharraf when he
quit the Presidency against the PPP, now the shoe will be on the other
foot. Sharif still finds it difficult to live down the charge that he
ran away to Saudi Arabia after seeking mercy from Musharraf. If he now
allows Musharraf to leave, and that too without any mercy petition, he
will give his opponents a big handle to beat him with.

If it were up to Sharif, he would like nothing better than to see
Musharraf in prison, even hang. According to people who know Nawaz
Sharif, he doesn’t forgive easily. It is only on Sharif’s adamance that
Musharraf’s trial even managed to reach the stage of indictment. The
grapevine is that Nawaz Sharif is keen to see Musharraf get convicted.
At that stage, he would magnanimously allow a Presidential pardon after
Musharraf appeals for clemency. This way Nawaz Sharif would settle the
score. Members of Nawaz Sharif’s party and other observers argue that
allowing Musharraf to flee soon after his indictment would set a
terrible precedent and example and undermine the quest for rule of law
in Pakistan. It will open the door for any person facing serious charges
to seek permission to go out of the country on one pretext or another.
Therefore, Nawaz Sharif and his team is loath to giving Musharraf his
ticket out of Pakistan. But if the judiciary were to do this, then they
might have the fig leaf they need and become pragmatic enough to let go
of Musharraf.

On its part, the judiciary is also caught in a bit of a bind. It has
been trying to project itself as a fearless and independent institution
which can no longer be pushed around by either the government or the
military. If the judiciary were to allow a man indicted on charges of
treason to leave the country, it would severely compromise its
credibility. The judges are pragmatic enough to know the limits of their
power when it comes to dealing with the top brass of the army. The
Missing Persons case stands testimony to this reality – the judges are
all fire and brimstone against the army and intelligence agencies in the
Missing Persons case but have desisted from taking any stringent action
against any top military official. And so, while they would not be
averse to see the back of Musharraf, they wouldn’t like to be the ones
to make that call and would rather that the government did it. This is
the reason why they have thrown the ECL ball in the government’s court.

The Pakistan Army is not very happy to see its former chief being
dragged through the courts. Until now the generals have held their peace
because this is a situation that Musharraf brought upon himself by
returning to Pakistan against all advice, even entreaties, of the army.
Even so, they have intervened in their own way to protect Musharraf and
save him from humiliation. Initially, bombs would conveniently be
discovered near Musharraf’s farm-house and this was used to justify his
absence from court. Then he was spirited away to the Armed Forces
Institute of Cardiology where he was kept for weeks on grounds of a
palpably fake heart condition. Only once he was taken from the hospital
to the court, but that too after receiving an assurance that he won’t be
indicted. But this subterfuge couldn’t work indefinitely and in recent
days had become a cause for embarrassment for the government, the
judiciary and even the army. Senior ministers had started making
statements about how the army was losing face by protecting Musharraf.
The judges were losing face because of the flagrant violation of orders
and repeated non-appearance of the accused. With their hand forced, they
had to issue non-bailable warrants, which finally forced Musharraf to
appear for his indictment.

The point is that the army was no longer in a position to resist the
judicial order, unless of course it wanted to enter into an open
confrontation with the government and judiciary. The implication of this
is that the compulsions of each of the players could force them to
adopt a path which leads Musharraf either to the goal or the gallows.
The choice before the army at that point will be to either lump it or
else move against the government and judiciary, and either destabilise
it or overthrow it. The question is whether the army will be willing to
risk the stability of the country for just one individual. More
importantly, will the army be willing to move back into the saddle for
running the state and risk unpopularity among the people only to bail
out a former chief? Unless Nawaz Sharif makes a complete hash of things,
chances are that the army will find it difficult to overthrow his
government because of the treatment meted out to Musharraf. This means
that while they may not like what happens to Musharraf, they will find
themselves constrained to act against the government to save him.

A lot will however depend on which sides holds its nerves in the
tension that will inevitably build up if the trial proceeds beyond the
indictment stage. If the government holds its nerve, the army might well
be left with no choice but to see Musharraf being out through the
grind. On the other hand, if the government loses its nerve, then
Musharraf could win his freedom, but have to reconcile to spending the
rest of his life or at least the better part of it in exile. It would
therefore appear that Musharraf isn’t quite out of the woods just yet.