Poll highlights challenges in governor's race

A poll was leaked this week from inside Gov. Rick Scott’s re-election campaign.

As with any leak, there was a strategy behind the release. Coming from Scott’s camp, it was undoubtedly meant to convey the message that although Scott trails his likely Democratic challenger, former Gov. Charlie Crist, the numbers are moving in his direction.

But the release — first reported by Politico.com — holds promises and challenges for both candidates heading into the critical election year.

The main horserace number showed Crist leading Scott by 49 percent to 45 percent among a poll of 1,000 likely Florida voters conducted Nov. 24-26. With a margin of error of 3.1 percent, it put itself in line with independent poll from Quinnipiac University that gave Crist a seven-point lead earlier in the month — although that poll did not use a “likely” voter screen.

With a little less than a year to go before the election, the poll showed Scott is certainly within striking distance of Crist. But the poll release was also risky in that it conveyed the message that Scott’s own campaign shows him trailing, reinforcing the idea that his re-election is no sure thing.

There were plenty of positive numbers in Scott’s favor in a head-to-head matchup with Crist.

Voters gave him the edge in controlling state spending, cutting taxes, improving the economy and creating jobs, which may be Scott’s strongest suit with a state economy growing stronger in each monthly jobs report.

Crist had the edge in issues like honesty, trust and “shares my beliefs and values.” But his strongest suit may be that voters — by an 8 percent edge — believe he “cares about people like me” more than Scott.

It underscores the likeability issue that Scott has struggled with since his narrow election in 2010.

Interestingly, the campaign poll did not have any favorable-unfavorable numbers for Scott, but did show his job approval rating as governor was slightly negative, at 46-48 percent. Crist had a positive favorable-unfavorable rating at 47-43 percent, although the numbers show Crist could be vulnerable to attacks questioning his political transition from staunch Republican to Democrat.

Scott is working hard to improve his image. A day after the poll was released, Scott was up early in the morning with his wife, Ann, handing out Christmas food bags to less fortunate Floridians at the Latin American Chamber of Commerce in Little Havana in Miami.

“I love talking to people,” Scott told the local CBS station. “I grew up living in public housing. I know what it’s like to have people help us...for Christmas.”

His message: He cares about people like you.

But Crist has his own likeability problem. And it has to do with his BFF — President Barack Obama.

The Scott campaign poll showed Obama’s favorable-unfavorable numbers are upside down in Florida — at 44-51 percent, reflecting earlier Quinnipiac numbers as well as a national trend for Obama whose popularity has plummeted with the botched startup of Obamacare.

Crist is clearly tied to Obama from his gubernatorial hug of the president in Fort Myers in 2009 to his speech for the president at the Democratic National Convention last year. And Republicans will use that linkage to hammer Crist as long as Obama continues to struggle with his popularity.

WINNER OF THE WEEK: Florida high schools. Nearly half of Florida’s high schools — 48 percent — received an ‘A’ grade on the latest school report from the state Department of Education. Some 80 percent of the high schools earned either a ‘B’ or an ‘A.’ A “safety net” provision prevented some schools from earning an ‘F,’ although eight schools received a failing grade, up from three in the prior year.

LOSER OF THE WEEK: “Satanists.” A group calling itself the “Satanic Temple” was denied the right to put up a holiday display at the state Capitol. State officials deemed the group’s poster “grossly offensive.” Other displays have been approved including a “Festivus” pole made out of beer cans. The displays are part of a public debate that erupted once the state approved a Nativity scene, saying the group was exercising its First Amendment right to free speech. Groups concerned about the separation of religion and state have offered counter displays, most of which have been approved.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: “It’s a bad law and it’s a dangerous law,” said Wakulla County Sheriff Charlie Creel, referring to a bill that would raise the top speed limit in Florida to 75 mph on portions of interstate highways.

Lloyd Dunkelberger

Lloyd Dunkelberger is the Htpolitics.com Capital Bureau Chief.
He can be reached by email or call 850 556-3542.
""More Dunkelberger"
Make sure to "Like" HT Politics on Facebook for all your breaking political news.

Last modified: December 20, 2013
All rights reserved. This copyrighted material may not be published without permissions. Links are encouraged.