Wednesday, August 02, 2006

July 2006 Iraq casualties

Avg. daily Coalition fatality rate (nearly all Americans, and excluding Iraqis): 1.55. June was 2.1, May 2.55, and July 2005 was 1.87. Overall daily average to date is 2.28, down 0.02. Total US dead as of today: 2582.

Iraqi monthly civilian fatalities: 1060. June was 738, May was 979, and July 2005 was 518. To-date total since March 2005: 11,495. Note that the civilian numbers may be less accurate than others, but could still be useful in determining trends.

Comments: Civilian deaths are the second-worst ever. US deaths continue a modest decrease.

Icasualties.org has published a three-year restrospective for the period ending in March, and I've read the first part of it. Summary is that Year 2 was much worse than Year 1 for Americans, while Year 3 was moderately better than Year 2. Iraqi civilian casualties seem worse in Year 3, and current data looks worse yet.

If you include American civilian deaths in Iraq, I expect the number of Americans who died in Iraq will exceed the 2,800 who died on 9/11 sometime in the next month or two. Two-three months after that, American military fatalities alone will exceed the 9/11 total.