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I think you have a slight problem with timing. I think his change would have happened before the late 1930s/ 40s, when he may or may not have killed Ariana. I think that would have shown him that wizards are just as capable of violence, and stupidity as Muggles are and that would have had far more effect on him then the anti-semitism in Germany. I know this is quite a major point, but I think when dealing with Dumbledore you should never forget he holds himself at least partly, if not wholly, responsible for his sister's death, which, according to the lexicon happened in 1899 (though I have no idea how they work that out).

The interesting conflict you would have is why Dumbledore did not step in to stop Grindelwald in the 1930s rather than wait until 1945.

Having said that I think Dumbledore is quite a cold man. Snape points this out brilliantly in DH when (I don't have it with me)he is horrified that Dumbledore is sending Harry to his death. Dumbledore risks Harry's life throughout the novels (I mean, letting an eleven year old deal with saving the philosopher's stone?) with the sole purpose of making sure he becomes the man he needs to become to defeat Voldemort. Therefore if Dumbledore comes off as a bit horrible- idealistic and with high aims but few qualms about how those are achieved - I don't think that's OOC.

I think you should probably have Dumbledore observing something positive about the Muggles. Something about their tenacity to survive the horror. If you think of Dr Who (ha ha - sorry he's my hero), he's obviously far more intelligent than us earth people, yet he often comments on their will to survive.
In the same vein, Arthur thinks Muggles are ingenious.

You could show Dumbledore being tempted to use magic, but knowing that if he starts something, then he'll have to face Grindelwald.
He can't face the confrontation yet, that's his turmoil, and that's the reason he has to turn a blind eye. It is cold, but it's necessary for him at that time.

I considered putting this in Sirius Black's characterization thread, but upon deeper thought decided to put it here instead. I'm re-reading Order of the Phoenix right now and this question struck me this time around: Why exactly does Dumbledore confine Sirius to 12 Grimmauld Place? Sure, Voldemort and his followers know his Animagus form, but they haven't passed that along to the Ministry yet, so Sirius could surely be of use spying on the Ministry side of things. Furthermore, the Death Eaters attacking him outright would actually hurt Voldemort's current plans of staying behind the scenes. Dumbledore has no problem putting other members of the Order in danger, particularly putting them in positions where they might be sent to Azkaban if they're caught (Sturgis Podmore). Why is it that he confines Sirius to the house when it makes him so obviously miserable and Sirius could actually be put to use? Should I just write this off as Rowling needing a plot device that brings Sirius to a point of desperation and recklessness?

Edit: Oh and after reading Dumbledore's conversation with Harry, the only thing I can theorize is that he was acting more cautiously with Sirius in the hopes of keeping him alive for Harry's happiness?

chaiteelatte - I doubt Dumbledore was concerned about Sirius getting hurt any more than he was of any other Order member (that's not to say he wasn't concerned of course; I'm sure Dumbledore cared dearly for the health and safety of everyone in the Order). Sirius was in the Order during the First War, and his abilities wouldn't have diminished by such a large amount in thirteen years to think him too weak and vulnerable to put up a fight. I think what you're neglecting to consider is that Sirius was a fugitive at this point. Despite the fact that Sirius was innocent and Dumbledore knew him to be, according to the ministry Sirius was a dangerous, murderous madman on the loose. If anyone in Britain to see him, especially since only two years before the entire wizarding and Muggle world was plastered with posters and news about his escape and crimes, it would be exceedingly reckless and would get Sirius killed, or worse by Dementor's Kiss. Dumbledore was also unaware of how the Black ancestral home would be passed down - would it follow Sirius' will, or default to an owner of pure blood? I doubt Dumbledore saw Sirius' complete happiness as more valuble than Sirius' safety and having the Order's secrecy intact.

Well that's what I'm saying though... How was a fugitive Sirius in any more danger than Remus among the werewolves or Snape among the Death Eaters, so much so that he had to be completely confined? Especially in Animagus form, recognizable only to Death Eaters and not the Ministry or people who had seen him in wanted posters. I suppose the house would count for something, but as we saw in HBP, changing the location of the Order headquarters could be done with little difficulty. Besides, it is not as if they were hiding things in the walls. There is only ever indications in the books that 12 Grimmauld Place was used as a sort of meeting place or crossroads. The danger of it falling to Bellatrix was only that she might pop in on them mid-Order business, not simply that she would take the house.

Well that's what I'm saying though... How was a fugitive Sirius in any more danger than Remus among the werewolves or Snape among the Death Eaters, so much so that he had to be completely confined?

Dumbledore hasn't confined Sirius to Grimmauld Place, but he strongly advises that he stays there. Sirius doesn't want to be there but I expect he it has been impressed upon him that he needs to stay alive to be there for Harry.

There were Death Eaters who never went to Azkaban working at the Ministry (Yaxley, Runcorn etc) and Lucius Malfoy would have had a word with his good friend Fudge, so Sirius could easily have been apprehended.

You should also bear in mind the personalities of Sirius, Remus and Snape. The last two are cautious and have a degree of cunning that Sirius because of his recklessness just doesn't possess.

I suppose it was because Wormtail knew about Sirius being an animagus and Dumbledore thought he would have told Voldemort because if I remeber correctly Lucius recognised Sirius on the platform even though he was in animagus form. Also Sirius knew he had to stay alive for Harry's sake and not put himself in danger so maybe Dumbledore didn't say he couldnt leave the house and just adviced him to.