Good Tuesday afternoon. We have quite the model battle going on between the GFS and the NAM with the Wednesday storm. The GFS has much less precipitation and is weaker with the low, while the NAM is stronger with the low and has more precipitation.

The end result…

GFS Snowfall Forecast

NAM Snowfall Forecast

The NAM says we start as rain then dynamic cooling kicks in late morning into the afternoon and switches the rain over to a period of moderate to heavy snow. The weaker solution of the GFS says no dynamic cooling gets involved so it’s mainly a rain/snow mix with a period of light snow.

The truth is likely in between these two solutions, but the NAM smoked the GFS on the northeastern blizzard a few days ago. Of course… most models smoked the GFS on that storm.

On a related note… the Canadian and NOGAPS models continue to show a major winter storm around here this weekend. I guess we will see.

So what factors would make Oklahoma get Dynamic cooling and snow and not us with this same storm, just out of curiosity? Not that we won’t have dynamic cooling tomorrow? Also, why is there NO snow in western KY? It’s almost as if it just stops at Oklahoma, then starts again into parts of KY? Just seems odd that dynamic cooling would be in Oklahoma, then stop in Ark, TN, and west KY, then start again in Central and eastern KY on up through the east. I don’t get it.

I don’t see how we get anything but cold rain tomorrow. It’s been too warm, and the forecast lows aren’t that cold. And this is another southern fed system. We’ve seen how those have panned out so far this winter. But I’m no meteorologist…..

Me to i love it when people come on here and act like Chris is giving warm temps the day of or after a snow and try to say he says its going to snow and be 50 degrees. They should go back and tell the people that is giving 50s that it can’t be 50 becaues its going to snow

Actually Chris is the very one that said Se ky would be 53 on Thu, the day after he said it would snow … Now that’s the facts jack, not a whack, good in the sack, don’t smoke crack, you’re a hack, and you lack, I’m the mack, but I’m not zack, just uncle si

about the weekend storm, how often is the Canadaian and NOGAPS correct after the storm? i always here about the GFS, NAM, or EURO getting praise after calling a big storm in advance, but what about the other 2?

NWS in Louisville saying tomorrow will be a now casting situation because of unknowns in the upper dynamic cooling possibilities, heavy banding could form especially from Lexington east? Maybe a sneaky snow for some folks in eastern KY??

Look, Bailey even understands he has to almost try to give us straws to grasp at this winter when there really isn’t anything to see. It’s a blog and he wants to keep viewers coming back. However, it has to be wearing on him and all the mets in Kentucky as to how winterless the winter has been the past few years.
As Marklex said, our big snow of the winter last year was in March! That says it all, as well.

Clay got its biggest snow all winter last winter on Sunday feb 18th I think was the date. Chris first call had us in 6 to 12 seems like. Was a lot of rain then a switch to snow. I wanna say clay got around 5 to 6 inches from that storm. I think everyone forgot that event.

They still have a chance at making the tournament, but even with Noel (great kid), they were unstable and could lose to anybody. Noel was their best player though, but a few people playing together never equals a team. This team does not play like a “team”. Coach Cal has said that a few times, so not me conjecturing, but in full agreement.

I told my friend who is a big UK fan that Harrow would be a problem. He could not handle criticism at N.C. State and they basically refused to play him at the end of his freshman season. Harrow is a baby and a whiner. UK isn’t the place for him. He shows no toughness or leadership. Point Guards lead the team. I thought UK looked best actually when Wiltjer was distributing the ball. Play him at point forward and UK will be alot better. Two games against Auburn and Ole Miss they went to this and worked well. I don’t know what changed?