On illusions and inflated condoms

The Muslim Brotherhood, secular activists and even regime supporters have decided to shield themselves from reality, focusing on a discourse that provides them with a protective layer from the
grim conditions engulfing them.

Press Association/AP/Amr Nabil. All rights reserved.This year marks
the fifth anniversary of the Egyptian uprising, and it feels different
from previous years. All sides of
the political spectrum seem to have decided to shield themselves from reality,
focusing on a discourse that provides them with a protective layer from the
grim conditions engulfing them, a survival coping mechanism. This is true of all sides of the political spectrum: the Muslim Brotherhood, the
secular activists and even the regime supporters. It has become increasingly apparent
that there are no winners in this struggle.

From a regime
that is terrified of any opposition, having raided thousands of flats in down
town Cairo and gone through Facebook profiles looking for anti-government
comments; to secular activists who keep proclaiming that the 'January 25
revolution' was the greatest in human history. These past few weeks have truly been
a spectacle, and they concluded with two young men appearing in Tahrir Square and distributing blown up condoms to the police.
They shone like rays of sunshine in the middle of a storm. Their gesture is a reminder
of the struggle ahead and the weaknesses of the illusions we have built around ourselves.

The regime and its supporters

This is one of
the most interesting groups. After a series of political disasters, the regime,
even though it is repeating the rhetoric of Sisi’s undisputed support, is acutely
aware of its deteriorating popularity.

The regime
promised a return to normalcy, but the country’s security has witnessed
one disaster after the next. ISIS’ local branch downed a commercial flight
heading to Saint Petersburg from Sharm El Sheikh – one of the worst terror
attacks in recent Egyptian history that has brought the tourism industry almost
to a grinding halt.

Press Association/AP. All rights reserved.Economically,
after numerous promises and what can only be described as propaganda, the
regime has failed to ameliorate the country’s worsening economic condition.
After heavy investments in the extension of the Suez Canal there has been no increase in revenues. The Sharm El Sheikh economic conference has become a figment of
the past, and the new administrative capital has all but disappeared from discourse.

On the
political side, the regime has finally held parliamentary elections and
produced a parliament, but it has been the butt of jokes on social media from
the day it started. This is a parliament that has approved all the laws issued by Sisi and Adly
Mansour – the interim president – since 2013, except for two laws in its first
session. This was done so blindly that the use of daylight saving time was
rejected and approved in the same session, as it had been abolished by Mansour
and was reinstated by Sisi.

This sense of
failure has crept into the discourse of regime supporters, as they become
acutely aware that improved standards of living are no longer on the horizon. The
old Nasserist equation of improved living standards in exchange for political
obedience, which some hoped Sisi would restore, would not be reproduced. In
fact, Sisi seems to have merged the worst of both worlds: the cronyism of
Mubarak and repression of Nasser.

This has pushed
this group towards the fantastic world of conspiracy theories, mixed with an
extreme form of chauvinistic nationalism. For example, there is a belief that
the revolt was a conspiracy by foreign powers rather than the product of
domestic discontent. Another is the claim made by Lamis Gaber, an appointed
member of parliament, that the protestors in 2011 killed themselves in order to accuse Mubarak of murder. Finally, my personal favourite, is the notion that
Egypt is currently under attack by what they call “fifth
generation warfare”, which involves natural
phenomena such as earthquakes, wind and rain. The aim of
this rhetoric is not to convince the public, but rather maintain social
cohesion within the regime’s supporters as the regime’s failures become more
and more apparent.

The Brotherhood and its supporters

This group is
not much different. After a spectacular fall from the presidency to
becoming an outlawed terror group, the Brotherhood’s leadership does not seem
to have learned nor digested the lesson. They committed a number of fatal errors
that include: alienating other political forces, attempting to repress protests
using their own cadres (the police refused to cooperate), and finally striking
a deal with the military in order to act as the civilian façade of the regime.

Press Association/PA/Hussein Malla. All rights reserved.The
Brotherhood repeated the same mistakes they committed when Nasser
came to power. They allied themselves with the military, the military at first used them
to stabilise the regime and suppress protests, and they were finally discarded when they were no longer needed.

The Brotherhood
now has morphed into a cult, more than it already was, and developed a victim
mentality. They believe that the coup of 2013 succeeded because they were “too soft”, and that they
should have been more aggressive when they were in power.

This, of
course, removes all blame from the shoulders of the Brotherhood, placing it on other
groups, namely the liberals and secular opposition. The Brotherhood fails to
understand that by attempting to ally themselves with the military and
excluding other political forces, they have misunderstood the dynamics of the
revolt. They failed to correctly estimate the real threat, the military, and the
potential power in the unification of the opposition. Rather than understand
its failures and attempt to build bridges with the opposition, the Brotherhood
is now focusing on maintaining internal cohesion through an elaborate process
of myth building to maintain the morale of the base who have been subjected to
severe repression.

The secular activists

The secular
activists seem to have been on the back foot almost from day one. Even though
some supported the coup in 2013, the vast majority have now been subjected to
intense repression with the most prominent in jail. Examples include: Alaa Abdel Fattah, Ahmed Douma, and Mahinour El-Masri.

Press Association/AP/Khalil Hamra. All rights reserved.This group has
started to create a myth of its own, namely that the 25 January mass protests were
the “greatest revolution” in history. This, of course, is a symptom of a group
under severe pressure. By any objective measures, the Egyptian revolt is not comparable
to the social revolution that occurred in France, Russia or Mexico. As I have
argued elsewhere, the demands of the protestors were limited to the realm of
political reform, there was no real desire to take over the state, and most
importantly, no radical wing appeared to push the revolt to its logical
conclusion. Thus, at best, the mass protests of 2011 and what followed can be
described as a revolutionary situation that was not exploited.

This discourse,
just like that of the regime supporters and the Brotherhood, is also
acting to protect the group from a sense of failure in an attempt to keep morale
high in the face of a very grim reality. However, it has the additional effect of
reducing the possibility of this group engaging critically with its own failures, and
discerning a possible future plan.

Five years
after the fall of Mubarak, this group remains disorganised and unable to
provide a real alternative that can act as a unified political force. This
group, after the failures of the past, has started to adopt new dangerous
discourse, namely that the regime is falling apart at the hinges and will
collapse under its own weight. Again, protecting themselves from the need to
take direct action, and waiting for time to do the job.

In the middle
of all of these illusions, two young men decide to make a short video of themselves
giving inflated condoms to the police on the anniversary of the revolt. This
simple act of defiance reveals the weaknesses of the mythology each group has
been trying to create.

For the regime
and its supporters, it has shown that no amount of repression can stamp out
acts of defiance, especially those as symbolic as this. Even staunch supporters of the regime cannot deny the wide spread and ruthless clampdown the regime is undertaking, even if it is taking them time to accept the reality of what is taking place. And still, the regime has failed to stop simple acts of rebellion such as this.

For the
Brotherhood, it shows how irrelevant they have become, and that their awaited
“revolution” will not come to restore them to power, but rather relegate them
to an even more inferior position. As demonstrated by the call made by the National Coalition to Support Legitimacy, closely linked to the Brotherhood, for a long week of protest prior to the anniversary, which went largely unheeded.

As for the
secular activists, it has shown the need for action and that the work of the
revolution is nowhere close to finished; in many ways it has not yet even started. The most illustrative example of this are the chants by Al-Ahly football supporters. They gathered for the anniversary of the Port Said Stadium massacre, and chants of "down with military rule" rang across the stadium. This shows that the spirit of the revolt is far from extinguished and that this struggle will carry on whether the regime likes it or not.

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence.
If you have any queries about republishing please contact us.
Please check individual images for licensing details.