Hmm. Meet Mike Halfacre (R Cand, NJ-12).

(H/T: Instapundit) This one is speculative: while NJ-12 is only D+5, its incumbent is Rush Holt, who has held the seat for ten years now, with election margins in the 60s. On the other hand, that’s also enough time to get sloppy; he’s a good bit more liberal than you’d expect from somebody in a D+5 seat; and if this report is correct he’s not handling well being on the other side from actual populists.