The first two grower group estimates of the upcoming 2015/16 pecan crop have been released. The Tri-State Growers Association announced the first estimate in late June at 283 million inshell pounds. The Texas Growers Association is the second group to estimate the crop and their projection announced last week is 327 million inshell pounds. Further, USDA on Friday announced their final figure of the 2014/15 pecan harvest at 264.2 million inshell pounds. The Industry has experienced two short crops back to back (2013/14 and 2014/15). With the normal cyclical nature of pecans with an on-year followed by an off-year, we are hopeful that we will continue to see the crop estimates increase as we move closer to harvest.

Now that the crop has set and the June drop has occurred, we will turn our focus to weather conditions throughout the summer and early fall. Not enough water, too much water, excessive storms are all factors we watch for every year and this one will be no different. Below is a timeline of pecan growth to maturity from July to harvest.

Rapid Growth Period

July/August

Shell Hardening

August/September

Nut shel forms thereby fixing the ultimate sizeof the nut.

Gel Stage

September

The kernel begins to form as a gelatinous mass.

Fill Stage

October

The kernel begins to solidify.

Shuck Dehiscence

November

The green shucks split signifying maturity.

Listed below are a couple of charts of interest. The first is a chart that shows the variance between the latest estimate and the final USDA number for each of the past six years. The second is a supply/consumption analysis based on the latest information from USDA and the latest estimate of the year.

Crop Year

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Texas Growers

324

292

257

282

230

264

USDA Final (July)

302

294

270

303

266

264

USDA Final Variance to Estimate

-22

2

13

21

36

0

Crop Year

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Cold Storage Carry-In 10-31

169

100

67

99

128

139

120

62*

US Crop per USDA

202

302

294

270

303

266

265

327**

Net Imports MX

80

120

128

100

152

130

130

150***

Total Supply

451

522

489

469

583

535

515

539*

Consumption

352

454

390

340

444

415

453*

*Estimated; **Texas Growers Estimate; ***Estimated Mexican Imports

The next estimate will be released in early September by the National Pecan Shellers Association and USDA will provide their first estimate of the crop in early October.

We will continue to keep you updated as we progress through the growing season. Should you have any questions or wish to discuss the market in more detail, please feel free to give me a call at 800-469-6607 or 843-319-5605. Also, please be sure to check out our website at www.youngpecan.com where you will find additional statistics, nutritional and regulatory information. On our site, you can sign up to receive emails automatically as we update statistics and other information.