A movie blog about what's going on in the film world by Jeff York, a writer, critic and fan.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

BEAT MY OSCAR PREDICTIONS & WIN AN ORIGINAL CARICATURE!

Ah, the Oscars. They’re upon us once again. So what’s going to win this year? Well, this year isn’t too hard to figure out. The same winners have dominated most of the previous season's awards and will likely reign at the Oscars too. Still, the Academy voters can often hand us a surprise or two. (Remember when “Crash” beat the heavily favored “Brokeback Mountain” for Best Picture?) That’s what makes the Oscars so much fun as there is always something unpredictable about them.

Still, we try. The important thing to remember is that while costume designers nominate costume designers, and screenwriters nominate screenwriters, everyone votes on the final ballot. So most of the awards are decided upon by voters less than expert. They tend to vote for the nominees where the work is most obvious: the most costumes, the most words, the most acting, etc. And the Academy follows trends, usually what the guilds and critics have already awarded.

So with that, I’m placing my bets. And I’d love it if you would do so as well. And here’s an incentive to do so. Make your predictions in the message board below and if you're the one with the most correct, and you beat me, I’ll draw an original caricature for you of your favorite actor or actress from a movie this past year. (Even if you don't beat me, the winner still get one. Cool, huh?) Sign up as a follower if you aren’t one already, and go to town!

Here are my predictions:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

· “The Artist”

· “The Descendants”

· “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

· “The Help”

· “Hugo”

· “Midnight in Paris”

· “Moneyball”

· “The Tree of Life”

· “War Horse”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Artist.” It should win handily. It’s cleaned up at the awards shows all season long and should do so at the Oscars too. And why shouldn’t it? It’s a movie that the Academy can be proud of as their selection because it’s brilliantly done, and it’s all about the movie industry. What’s not to love in that?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

· Demian Bechir, “A Better Life”

· George Clooney, “The Descendants”

· Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”

· Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”

· Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

THE WINNER WILL BE: Jean Dujardin. It could be close with Clooney, but I think the Academy will give it to Dujardin as he has become the breakout male star of the year. He’s also extraordinary in a tricky part that requires both high comedy and wrenching pathos. The Academy also tends to award at least one actor from their Best Picture selection. All that, plus the run of Best Actor awards from the Golden Globes to SAG to BAFTA bodes well for the Frenchman.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

· Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”

· Viola Davis, “The Help”

· Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

· Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

· Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

THE WINNER WILL BE: Viola Davis. Meryl Streep’s name could easily be called in this closest of close races, but “The Iron Lady” is a very flawed film and I think that will hurt Streep in the final tallying. Besides, Viola Davis did absolute wonders with her part, adding such gravitas to the movie, and “The Help” is a Best Picture nominee, giving Davis even more of an edge.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

· Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”

· Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”

· Nick Nolte, “Warrior”

· Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

· Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

THE WINNER WILL BE: Christopher Plummer. I’m tempted to say he is the lock of all locks this year, but then that was said about Lauren Bacall back when she was considered a sentimental shoo-in for Best Supporting Actress for her role in “The Mirror Has Two Faces.” Still, Plummer has won almost all the awards going into the Oscars where Bacall had not. And his award will be for the great performance as well as for his long and distinguished career. I think he’s a lock.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

· Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”

· Jessica Chastain, “The Help”

· Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”

· Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”

· Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

THE WINNER WILL BE: Octavia Spencer. However, this category is one where there are often surprises. (Right, Ms. Bacall?) Jessica Chastain was the breakout female performer of the year with her exemplary turns in "The Help", “The Tree of Life” and “Take Shelter” and three other movies as well, so she could be a spoiler. Or if there’s a big sweep for “The Artist” Berenice Bejo could be swept into the winner’s circle. Still, I’d put the smart money on Octavia Spencer for her turn as the maid who stopped taking shit and started putting it in her pies!

Best Achievement in Directing

· Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

· Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

· Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”

· Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”

· Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

THE WINNER WILL BE: Michel Hazanavicius. Usually, the director Oscar goes hand-in-hand with the Best Picture winner. Since “The Artist” is the favorite for top film, I think the Academy will honor Hazanavicius accordingly.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

· Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

· Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo, “Bridesmaids”

· J.C. Chandor, “Margin Call”

· Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

· Asghar Farhadi, “A Separation”

THE WINNER WILL BE: Woody Allen. This is a tricky one. While it might be smarter to pick Hazavanicius here again, I suspect that the Academy will honor the Woodman for his delightfully clever “Midnight in Paris.” It’s a great script and Oscar has always loved Woody. I think they’ll send some love his way in this category because he’s up for Best Director too.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

· Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, “The Descendants”

· John Logan, “Hugo”

· George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, “The Ides of March”

· Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin, “Moneyball”

· Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Descendants.” It’s a great adaptation, and the movie is probably the one that would finish second in the Best Picture balloting. It’s the likely winner in an incredibly good category this year. Any one could win the adaptation Oscar, very possibly John Logan for "Hugo", but I think the Academy will go with “The Descendants.”

Best Achievement in Cinematography

· Guillaume Schiffman, “The Artist”

· Jeff Cronenweth, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

· Robert Richardson, “Hugo”

· Emmanuel Lubezki, “The Tree of Life”

· Janusz Kaminski, “War Horse”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Tree of Life.” Its cinematography was the most extraordinary this year. Every image was a marvel of framing, light and composition. Lubezki’s work here is a remarkable achievement, poetic really, and it should be rewarded.

Best Achievement in Editing

· Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”

· Kevin Tent, “The Descendants”

· Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

· Thelma Schoonmaker, “Hugo”

· Christopher Tellefsen, “Moneyball”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Artist.” This category is always tricky. Do Academy voters really know that much about the intricacies of editing? But since “The Artist” is the frontrunner for Best Picture and it is a deftly edited and tightly put-together film, I predict the Academy will check that box.

Best Achievement in Art Direction

· Laurence Bennett, Gregory S. Hooper, “The Artist”

· Stuart Craig, “Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part 2”

· Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo, “Hugo”

· Ann Seibel, Helene Dubreuil, “Midnight in Paris”

· Rick Carter, Lee Sandales, “War Horse”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “Hugo.” The film got 11 nominations and should win this category. The art direction of that train station was amazing, as were the recreations of silent film tableaus, and the hidden passageways to the clocks. All of the other entries are worthy too, but “Hugo” should prevail.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

· Lisy Christl, “Anonymous”

· Mark Bridges, “The Artist”

· Sandy Powell, “Hugo”

· Michael O’Connor, “Jane Eyre”

· Arianne Phillips, “W.E.”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Artist.” Even though "Anonymous" has all those Elizabethan beaded gowns, I think "The Artist" will take this category for its glamorous rendering of fashion from the 20's.

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Iron Lady.” Meryl Streep marvelously embodies British PM Margaret Thatcher, but she’s helped by the incredible make-up job that makes her look so much like her too. Bloody good show!

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

· John Williams, “The Adventures of Tintin”

· Ludovic Bource, “The Artist”

· Howard Shore, “Hugo”

· Alberto Iglesias, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”

· John Williams, “War Horse”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Artist.” There was no movie this year where the sound of the music was more crucial. Plus, it’s a wonderful score. Vibrant, cheeky, sexy and moving.

THE WINNER WILL BE: “War Horse.” Sound awards are confusing to most Academy members who don’t know much about the nuance of that craft. This award is between “Hugo” and “War Horse” with both films having to manage sound in big settings. Because “War Horse” is outside and concerns the complexities of war, I think it has the edge.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

· Lon Bender, Victory Ray Ennis, “Drive”

· Ren Klyce, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

· Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, “Hugo”

· Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

· Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom, “War Horse”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “War Horse.” Again, I think all the various sounds from battle scenes and such will strike most Academy voters as the trickier achievement.

THE WINNER WILL BE: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes.” Every ape in this movie was a CGI effect. Remarkable. If the Academy doesn’t give such an accomplishment the gold, they’ll give it to “Harry Potter” for his curtain call.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

· “A Cat in Paris”

· “Chico & Rita”

· “Kung Fu Panda 2”

· “Puss in Boots”

· “Rango”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “Rango.” More saw it. And it was hilarious. Very adult. And so original.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

· “Bullhead” (Belgium)

· “Monsieur Lazhar” (Canada)

· “A Separation” (Iran)

· “Footnote” (Israel)

· “In Darkness” (Poland)

THE WINNER WILL BE: “A Separation.” This film has won most of the foreign language awards from critics groups and such, and I can’t see it missing here. Especially since it’s also up for a screenplay Oscar.

Best Documentary, Features

· “Hell and Back Again”

· “If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front”

· “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”

· “Pina”

· “Undefeated”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “Hell and Back Again.” I’m at a disadvantage here, having not seen most of these. However, the buzz seems to be with this one so that’s my prediction.

THE WINNER WILL BE: “Saving Face.” Again, I’ve not seen this one or any of the nominees, but “Saving Face” is about plastic surgery in Pakistan and it is supposed to be an affirmation of the human spirit, which the Academy often rewards.

Best Short Film, Animated

· “Dimanche”

· “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore”

· “La Luna”

· “A Morning Stroll”

· “Wild Life”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore.” I am happy to say that I have seen all of these and by far the best one was the one about the written word. I think the Academy will see it that way too.

Best Short Film, Live Action

· “Pentecost”

· “Raju”

· “The Shore”

· “Time Freak”

· “Tuba Atlantic”

THE WINNER WILL BE: “Time Freak.” It’s the wittiest of them all and it has a great ending, which none of the others do.

Now, if there’s a tie, we’ll have to bring in a two-part tiebreaker to determine the winner. Here it is: What film will win the most Oscars? And how many?

So, go big or go home, Oscar prognosticators! And may the best fan win!

Best Motion Picture of the Year. I'm bankin' on the sistas. "The Help" wins it.

Best Actor in a Leading Role. If Pitt wins I'll never watch another film. Gary Oldman takes the trophy.

Best Actress in a Leading Role. No dragon. Lady. This week. Viola Davis steps up to win.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role. Goin' way out on a limb here. Christopher Plummer "comes out" the winner.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role. Many of you will be saying "fat chance," but my money's on Melissa McCarthy. Hey, when you crap in a sink you deserve some kind of award. (Or maybe she'll come in #2.)

Best Director. Why is Woody Allen on the short list? (Because he's short.) Speaking of short, Scorsese will win.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen. Ok Woodie. You win. (But you're still creepy.)

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published. Hmm. Ides of March was predictable all the way. Moneyball was simple. I'm going long shot: "Tinker Tailor" wins.

Best Cinematography. I got nothing here, so I'll go with Jeff's pick-- "The Tree of Life." After all, he's a fancy schmancy screenwriter guy. Best Editing. Got to be "The Artist."

Best Art Direction. It's "War Horse" by a nose. (Couldn’t help myself.)Best Costume Design. "Jane Eyre." The actors wear old stuff. The Academy loves old stuff.

Best Makeup. I'm going "Albert Nobbs" for Achievement in Makeup. Just a hunch.

Best Original Score. Got to be "The Artist." If they don't pick it, it'll make all the hoopla ring hollow.

Best Original Song. I'll bet my thong "Real in Rio" gets it for Original Song. Best Achievement in Sound Mixing will go to "Hugo." (I'm getting tired.)

Best Achievement in Sound Editing will go to "War Horse." (See above.)

Best Visual Effects will go to "Rise of the Planet of the Apes." Don't worry. They won't really be on stage to accept the award. They're not real. Really.

Best Animated Feature Film. I don't know a damn thing 'bout no animation, but "Rango" was very cool.

Best Foreign Language Film. "A Separation" wins it because we all know the people of Iran are great. It's just Ahmadinejad bringing the rest down.

Best Documentary, Features. Jeff thinks he's at a disadvantage? I haven't seen any of these. I'll take a flyer and pick "If a Tree Falls: A Story of Earth Liberation Front." If it wins, I'll hear it.

Best Documentary, Short Subjects. "Elvis" has left the building. "Saving Face" is my pick.

Best Short Film, Animated. I go to work every day Mr. York, while you're sitting in theaters. I'll take a wild guess: "Wild Life."

Best Short Film, Live Action. For Pete's sake. The Grammy's cut all kinds of categories this year. You'd think the Academy could make it easy on us. I'll pick "Raju."

Brian, thanks for playing! Excellent picks. Some of those we haven't seen are hard to predict. And the documentary stuff and those special panel votes are always a crap shoot, aren't they? We shall see soon if they're on track with the expected picks or not!

About Me

I am a writer, illustrator, and host of the movie review podcast "Page 2 Screen" for the International Screenwriters Association. Thank you for following me, and I'll look forward to reading your thoughts in the comments section below each post.