BEARS' TRADE OF ARMSTRONG WILL PAN OUT IF YOUNGSTERS, DRAFT DO

Don Pierson, Tribune Pro Football WriterCHICAGO TRIBUNE

The trade of Trace Armstrong is a two-pronged gamble by Dave Wannstedt that should keep Bears fans happy if he's right.

First, it indicates the coach thinks Albert Fontenot and John Thierry are ready to step up at right defensive end and provide a pass rush reminiscent of Richard Dent. Alonzo Spellman is better suited to Armstrong's left end, where he can wear down tight ends and drive-blocking tackles and play the run. He's a bull who will get his share of sacks from that side, too, but more quickness is the thing coaches want on the weak side, the blind side for right-handed quarterbacks.

Last year's gamble of letting Dent and Steve McMichael go proved the right thing to do because the Bears made the playoffs without them after missing the playoffs with them. Dumping Armstrong represents Phase 2 of the retooling. Getting rid of any starting defensive lineman in this league represents great confidence in the players who are left because good defensive linemen are so hard to find and no area of a team is more important than the defensive front.

The second part of the gamble is more enticing. By getting Miami's second- and third-round draft picks, Wannstedt has positioned himself to move up in the first round of the April 22 draft. To immediately justify the trade, he must move up and grab a running back or someone else the Bears have specifically targeted as a can't-miss difference-maker. Presumably, this can't be done by staying at No. 21 in the round.

Said an NFC personnel man: "They're not going to get anybody in the second or third round that you know will play as good as Armstrong does. If they're using him to climb the draft ladder, that's one thing. But if they're using him just to get picks, that's dumb."

The man thinks it would be dumb because the two Miami picks-Nos. 56 and 87-are too low to assure the Bears of any more than 50-50 prospects. A look at recent draft history confirms this.

In 1994, the two picks were Rams defensive tackle Brad Ottis and 49ers receiver Cory Fleming. Ottis was a reserve and Fleming was cut.

In 1993, the two picks were Patriots receiver Vincent Brisby and Cardinals running back Ron Moore. This was a jackpot. The Bears would take those two picks right now and pat themselves on the back for a good trade.

In 1991, the two picks were Patriots guard Calvin Stephens and Falcons defensive tackle Moe Gardner. Stephens didn't make it; Gardner is a starter on the NFC's worst defense.

In 1990, the two picks were Jets cornerback Tony Stargell and Bucs tight end Jesse Anderson. Stargell is with his third team, and Anderson knocked around with four teams.

The pattern is clear. Players drafted in the low second and third rounds usually turn out to be no better than average. A playoff team needs more than average players to reach the next level.

It is also true that low second- and third-round picks this year are lower than ever. Before expansion and compensatory picks, the 87th pick was in the fourth round.

Every year, of course, good players get missed in the second and third rounds. In the 1990s, some of the second- and third-round players available at the 56th spot were Steelers running back Bam Morris, Chiefs receiver Lake Dawson, Colts cornerback Ray Buchanan, Dolphins running back Terry Kirby, Cardinals cornerback Aeneas Williams, Vikings receiver Jake Reed, Cowboys tackle Eric Williams, Browns defensive end Anthony Pleasant and Eagles receiver Fred Barnett. All those players were gone by the 87th pick, by the way.

Any combination of those players at the 56th and 87th spots would ultimately justify getting rid of Armstrong. But only a move up in the draft to secure a player the Bears really like will keep the second-guessers at bay.

That brings up a third part to the gamble. If Wannstedt moves up, he has to hope he finds someone with more immediate impact than Curtis Conway (at the seventh spot) and Thierry (at the 11th spot) provided.

What the Bears must do is draft as well in the first three rounds as they have in the fourth, where they have landed Fontenot, guard Todd Perry, linebacker Myron Baker and fullback Raymont Harris in the last two years.