Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

New Study Cites Surge In Student Support for Dems

According to the first national post-election survey of student participation in the 2004 election, the era of student apathy is over and the Democratic Party is the big winner. The poll, conducted by Schneiders/Della Volpe/Schulman from November 9-19, found that 77 percent of college students nation-wide said they voted on November 2nd, and they voted for John Kerry by a margin of 55-41 percent.
The poll also found that 62 percent of the respondents said they encouraged or helped someone else to vote, nearly double the figure for 2000. Interestingly, two-thirds of the respondents were registered in their home town. However, the third who were registered in their college’s towns turned out to vote at a slightly higher rate. John Kerry received a healthy majority of all student major groups, except those who majored in education, 51 percent of whom voted for Bush.

Actually, the results are not as sanguine as first reported. First, the margin for Kerry was actually 55-41, NOT 62-27% — that was the breakdown for independent voters. Second, the 77% turnout figure should be treated skeptically — survey respondents are notorious for saying they voted when they actually did not in order to appear socially desirable. Given the percentage of students in the 18-24 group that actually voted in 2004 (42%) and the percentage of this age group that attends college (two and four year), the turnout among non-college students in this age group would have to be VERY, VERY low for the numbers to add up. The social desirability explanation is likely particularly potent in 2004 given the stakes of the election and the strong outreach initiatives aimed at students. Finally, the education majors favoring Bush (5pts. higher than business majors?!?!) makes no sense and should not be taken seriously. It’s probably the result of sampling error due to the small sample for that subgroup (which is unreported in the news release).
College campuses are certainly fertile ground for Democrats, and we should try hard to appeal to this demographic, but things are not quite as rosy as the post suggests.

I had the same reaction as Josh–education?
Random result?
Teachers colleges clustered in strongly pro-Bush states?
Remnants of “traditional” female career path?
Inadvertent exposure of a hidden piece of the GOP’s plan to establish long-term political control?
(I write that last one reluctantly at the urging of my tinfoil hat–the damn thing’s been more right than wrong the last 4 years)

Education… voted for Bush? These are the future members of the teachers unions, the people who were screwed over by NCLB: what the heck? This is the *last* group I would have expected to vote for Bush. What about the business majors?

But let’s don’t ignore the fact that another recently conservative demographic group became bluer than in the last two elections: seniors. According to exit polls, over-65 voters went Republican by a spare two points (50/48). Republicans carried them 58/42 in 2010; 56/44 in 2012; 57/41 in 2014 and 52/45 in 2016. Even in 2008, the year of the Obama landslide, Republicans won seniors 53/45. This improvement by Democrats was particularly significant in that seniors are a steadily increasing percentage of the electorate; growing from 20 percent in 2010 to 22 percent in 2014 and 26 percent this year. It also suggests that some polarization scenarios that pit old conservatives against young progressives are a bit over-sold.

Even in what we think of as the heartland of Trumpism, among old white people, Democrats made similar progress. They won 36 percent of white seniors in 2014, 39 percent in 2016 and then 43 percent in 2018. A rising percentage of a rising portion of the electorate is a very good sign.

There are, of course, possible avenues for a renewed Republican trend among seniors, particularly if they stay away from proposing major benefit reductions for Medicare and Social Security (as they largely have since Trump became their leader). All other things being equal, senior, and particularly white seniors, are relatively conservative on cultural issues, including immigration. And even on “their” entitlement programs, it’s possible that Democrats will offer too much of a good thing, as Frederick Lynch recently warned:

“Older Americans probably suspect (as was the case with the Affordable Care Act) that Medicare for All might produce ‘socialized medicine’ that could shift Medicare resources from seniors to younger populations. In addition, these fears and resentments would be compounded if the resources were stretched to include millions of unauthorized immigrants who would become eligible for universal health care through citizenship.

“Mr. Trump has already articulated such fears and previewed a likely Republican strategy to attack Medicare for All as a ‘socialist’ scheme that will bankrupt Medicare: At a September rally in Montana, he said that Democrats want to turn the country into (socialist) Venezuela, destroying Social Security, and that they say ‘Medicare for All’ until they run out of money, which will be the third day, and it will be Medicare for nobody.”

Rebutting such myths will be essential for Democrats advocating a universal single-payer program. But most of all, Democrats need to avoid the temptation of mentally writing off old folks–especially old white folks–as they pursue what some have called a “coalition of the ascendant.” In the end, a vote’s a vote, and there are too many seniors voting to make them anything other than a constant target, even if Democrats don’t “win” them.