http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/
en-usBrian Jacobsen - Brian JacobsenBrian Jacobsen's stories. Brian Jacobsen: I connect the dots between politics, economics and investing.Copyright 2016 Forbes LLChttp://0.gravatar.com/avatar/fb585138dce496e430f8c5fad4c59309?s=400&#038;d=mm&#038;r=ghttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2014/01/31/year-of-the-horse-why-is-the-fed-hamstringing-the-emerging-markets/
Year Of The Horse: Why Is The Fed Hamstringing The Emerging Markets?The Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing that the U.S. recovery stumbled a bit in December. The data also show how the Federal Reserve may want to rethink its exit strategy from its asset-purchase program. Not only is inflation running well below the Fed’s target, a hasty taper is [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52ebf5ebe4b07ff08fb3d099Fri, 31 Jan 2014 17:12:00 -05002014-01-31T17:12:00-05:00The Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing that the U.S. recovery stumbled a bit in December. The data also show how the Federal Reserve may want to rethink its exit strategy from its asset-purchase program. Not only is inflation running well below the Fed’s target, a hasty taper is [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2014/01/29/is-the-federal-reserve-wearing-blinders/
Is The Federal Reserve Wearing Blinders?At Chairman Bernanke’s last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the FOMC decided to do the entirely predictable—continue to reduce the pace of asset purchases by $10 billion. The FOMC ignored (perhaps rightly) recent weak economic data and market volatility to continue its slowdown of asset purchases. Beginning in February, [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52e95590e4b07ff08fb3bfffWed, 29 Jan 2014 19:54:00 -05002014-01-29T19:54:00-05:00At Chairman Bernanke’s last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the FOMC decided to do the entirely predictable—continue to reduce the pace of asset purchases by $10 billion. The FOMC ignored (perhaps rightly) recent weak economic data and market volatility to continue its slowdown of asset purchases. Beginning in February, [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2014/01/24/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-correction-everyone-is-waiting-for/
Is This The Beginning Of The Correction Everyone Is Waiting For?I don’t want to bury the lede, so I’ll start by saying, “I don’t know.” It could be, but I don’t think so. The bad Purchasing Managers’ Index reading out of China seemed to precede a market pullback everywhere except China, where stocks actually rose. Coincident with the bad reading—which [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52e2beaae4b07ff08fb398c9Fri, 24 Jan 2014 15:01:00 -05002014-01-24T15:01:00-05:00I don’t want to bury the lede, so I’ll start by saying, “I don’t know.” It could be, but I don’t think so. The bad Purchasing Managers’ Index reading out of China seemed to precede a market pullback everywhere except China, where stocks actually rose. Coincident with the bad reading—which [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2014/01/10/employment-situation-still-improving-but-not-that-fast/
Employment Situation: Still Improving, But Not That Fast Nonfarm payrolls expanded by a meager 74,000 in December, but the unemployment rate dropped a significant 0.3 percentage points to 6.7%. There were no revisions to October (stayed at +200,000), but November was revised up 38,000 (to +241,000). For 2013, payrolls expanded an average of 182,000 per month compared with [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52d0176ce4b07ff08fb3277dFri, 10 Jan 2014 13:21:00 -05002014-01-10T13:21:00-05:00 Nonfarm payrolls expanded by a meager 74,000 in December, but the unemployment rate dropped a significant 0.3 percentage points to 6.7%. There were no revisions to October (stayed at +200,000), but November was revised up 38,000 (to +241,000). For 2013, payrolls expanded an average of 182,000 per month compared with [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2014/01/08/fed-minutes-shift-from-employment-to-inflation/
Fed Minutes: Shift From Employment To InflationThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released today from the meeting that ended on December 18. While detailed, not a lot of it was exciting. The biggest point of contention seemed to be around the outlook for inflation: Is below 2% inflation temporary, or not? That will be [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52cdcff2e4b07ff08fb31a67Wed, 8 Jan 2014 17:29:00 -05002014-01-08T17:29:00-05:00The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released today from the meeting that ended on December 18. While detailed, not a lot of it was exciting. The biggest point of contention seemed to be around the outlook for inflation: Is below 2% inflation temporary, or not? That will be [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2014/01/06/ism-reports-point-to-a-slowdown-but-not-stopping-of-the-economy/
ISM Reports Point To A Slowdown, But Not Stopping, Of The EconomyThe Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 53.9 to 53.0 in December. Although this is a decline, any reading above 50 indicates an expansion of activity in the service sector. This is consistent with a slightly slower pace of growth at the end of the year than in [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52caf5a6e4b07ff08fb30480Mon, 6 Jan 2014 17:05:00 -05002014-01-06T17:05:00-05:00The Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index dropped from 53.9 to 53.0 in December. Although this is a decline, any reading above 50 indicates an expansion of activity in the service sector. This is consistent with a slightly slower pace of growth at the end of the year than in [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/12/17/consumer-price-index-low-inflation-shows-the-fed-should-try-a-different-tool/
Consumer Price Index: Low Inflation Shows The Fed Should Try A Different ToolThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in November. Declines in energy prices have been dragging the headline number lower. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% for the month. Most of the increase in the Core CPI was driven by higher prices for shelter and [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52b08774e4b02de6a88e9704Tue, 17 Dec 2013 15:35:00 -05002013-12-17T15:35:00-05:00The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in November. Declines in energy prices have been dragging the headline number lower. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% for the month. Most of the increase in the Core CPI was driven by higher prices for shelter and [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/12/12/retail-sales-and-unemployment-claims-may-signal-bunny-hill-taper/
Retail Sales And Unemployment Claims May Signal Bunny-Hill TaperI would not be surprised if next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement gives more emphasis on trying to juice up the inflation numbers.Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52a9f844e4b02de6a88e6fefThu, 12 Dec 2013 14:20:00 -05002013-12-12T14:20:00-05:00I would not be surprised if next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement gives more emphasis on trying to juice up the inflation numbers.http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/12/11/budget-deal-a-gimmick-that-just-might-work/
Budget Deal: A Gimmick That Just Might WorkI view a commitment to reduce spending in 10 years as a bit of gimmickry.Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52a8a83fe4b02de6a88e62feWed, 11 Dec 2013 15:07:00 -05002013-12-11T15:07:00-05:00I view a commitment to reduce spending in 10 years as a bit of gimmickry.http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/12/06/employment-numbers-hit-feds-7-target-to-begin-tapering-will-it/
Employment Numbers Hit Fed's 7% Target To Begin Tapering: Will It? The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0% in November from 7.3% in October as total nonfarm payrolls rose by 203,000. These were both much better than expected. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate dropped because the number of [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52a1ff26e4b02de6a88e3b3fFri, 6 Dec 2013 16:03:00 -05002013-12-06T16:03:00-05:00 The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0% in November from 7.3% in October as total nonfarm payrolls rose by 203,000. These were both much better than expected. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate dropped because the number of [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/12/06/gdp-revisions-whats-good-for-this-quarter-is-bad-for-the-next/
GDP Revisions: What's Good for This Quarter is Bad for the NextThird-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.6% at an annualized rate, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is much faster than the preliminary estimate of a 2.8% rate. The driving force behind this revision was a surge in private inventory investment, adding 1.68 [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52a0bb70e4b0d181e3c4a295Fri, 6 Dec 2013 06:00:00 -05002013-12-06T06:00:00-05:00Third-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.6% at an annualized rate, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is much faster than the preliminary estimate of a 2.8% rate. The driving force behind this revision was a surge in private inventory investment, adding 1.68 [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/12/05/dont-fear-aggressive-tapering-by-the-fed/
Don't Fear Aggressive Tapering By The Fed The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a collection of qualitative information from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, painted a continued boring color for the U.S. economy. Just like previous reports, it said that the economy continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace. The economy expanded in January. Then it expanded [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/529faa74e4b0d181e3c49bb5Thu, 5 Dec 2013 15:17:00 -05002013-12-05T15:17:00-05:00 The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, a collection of qualitative information from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, painted a continued boring color for the U.S. economy. Just like previous reports, it said that the economy continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace. The economy expanded in January. Then it expanded [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/11/26/irans-nuclear-deal-and-oil-look-out-below/
Iran's Nuclear Deal and Oil: Look Out Below? Negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, made up of the U.S., the U.K., France, Russia, and China, plus Germany) reached an agreement to limit Iran’s development of fissile materials and to subject Iran to more frequent and thorough nuclear inspections by [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/5294e5d3e4b0d181e3c45bb5Tue, 26 Nov 2013 15:54:00 -05002013-11-26T15:54:00-05:00 Negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, made up of the U.S., the U.K., France, Russia, and China, plus Germany) reached an agreement to limit Iran’s development of fissile materials and to subject Iran to more frequent and thorough nuclear inspections by [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/11/20/bernanke-to-go-out-with-a-bang/
Bernanke To Go Out With A Bang? Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at the National Economists Club Annual Dinner on November 19, 2013. He has only a few more public appearances before his term as chairman officially ends, and this appearance was particularly powerful. The speech covered the changes to the Fed’s communication strategy over the [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/528cd424e4b0d181e3c42a2eWed, 20 Nov 2013 13:00:00 -05002013-11-20T13:00:00-05:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at the National Economists Club Annual Dinner on November 19, 2013. He has only a few more public appearances before his term as chairman officially ends, and this appearance was particularly powerful. The speech covered the changes to the Fed’s communication strategy over the [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/11/08/employment-situation-uglier-than-it-looks/
Employment Situation: Uglier Than It Looks Bureau of Labor Statistics (Wikipedia) On the surface, the U.S. economy made better-than-expected job gains in October, a month disrupted by the partial government shutdown. The Federal Open Market Committee, however, will likely be more concerned with the details of the report than the headline number of job gains. Nonfarm payrolls [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/527d1555e4b0192ff4cbebf2Fri, 8 Nov 2013 14:51:00 -05002013-11-08T14:51:00-05:00 Bureau of Labor Statistics (Wikipedia) On the surface, the U.S. economy made better-than-expected job gains in October, a month disrupted by the partial government shutdown. The Federal Open Market Committee, however, will likely be more concerned with the details of the report than the headline number of job gains. Nonfarm payrolls [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/31/federal-reserve-no-changes-now-but-bernanke-swan-song-could-be-surprising/
Federal Reserve: No Changes Now But Bernanke Swan Song Could Be Surprising The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its policy rate target unchanged at 0% and its asset purchaseprogram unaltered. Considering the partial government shutdown and the debt ceiling fight, it was widely expected that the FOMC would refrain from making any changes to its policy. The economy continues to expand at [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/52727835e4b0bf9912cb152dThu, 31 Oct 2013 17:09:00 -04002013-10-31T17:09:00-04:00 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its policy rate target unchanged at 0% and its asset purchaseprogram unaltered. Considering the partial government shutdown and the debt ceiling fight, it was widely expected that the FOMC would refrain from making any changes to its policy. The economy continues to expand at [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/29/industrial-production-another-irrelevant-statistic/
Industrial Production: Another Irrelevant Statistic?The economic reports delayed by the government shutdown continue to be released at a steady pace, but investors would probably be better served by not putting too much emphasis on any given set of numbers. Industrial production increased 0.6% in September. For the third quarter, industrial production advanced at a [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/526fdf51e4b051c11c6ee52cTue, 29 Oct 2013 14:23:00 -04002013-10-29T14:23:00-04:00The economic reports delayed by the government shutdown continue to be released at a steady pace, but investors would probably be better served by not putting too much emphasis on any given set of numbers. Industrial production increased 0.6% in September. For the third quarter, industrial production advanced at a [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/24/an-energy-boost-and-declining-health/
An Energy Boost and Declining HealthMy colleague, John Manley, and I just updated our sector recommendations for energy and health care. Perhaps the title overstates our views a bit. We are simply recommending to put health care stocks at a neutral weight rather than an overweight. We are also upgrading energy stocks to an overweight. We put [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/526950d1e4b0c373ef842736Thu, 24 Oct 2013 13:12:00 -04002013-10-24T13:12:00-04:00My colleague, John Manley, and I just updated our sector recommendations for energy and health care. Perhaps the title overstates our views a bit. We are simply recommending to put health care stocks at a neutral weight rather than an overweight. We are also upgrading energy stocks to an overweight. We put [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/22/employment-situation-wait-and-see/
Employment Situation: Wait And See?A disappointing employment situation report for September was released today, delayed from its scheduled October 4 release due to the partial government shutdown. Given that the shutdown ended on October 17, it’s likely that the October report will show private payrolls that are somewhat depressed, but this should not be [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/5266a8dfe4b0c373ef8414e3Tue, 22 Oct 2013 12:47:00 -04002013-10-22T12:47:00-04:00A disappointing employment situation report for September was released today, delayed from its scheduled October 4 release due to the partial government shutdown. Given that the shutdown ended on October 17, it’s likely that the October report will show private payrolls that are somewhat depressed, but this should not be [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/18/debt-deal-done-so-what/
Debt Deal Done. So What?I invite you to listen to me and my colleagues Jim Kochan, chief fixed-income strategist, and John Manley, CFA, chief equity strategist, with Wells Fargo Funds Management, LLC, in this edition of the investment news podcast On the Trading DeskSM as we help investors navigate the markets regardless of events [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/5261bc26e4b0c373ef83fd2dFri, 18 Oct 2013 19:04:00 -04002013-10-18T19:04:00-04:00I invite you to listen to me and my colleagues Jim Kochan, chief fixed-income strategist, and John Manley, CFA, chief equity strategist, with Wells Fargo Funds Management, LLC, in this edition of the investment news podcast On the Trading DeskSM as we help investors navigate the markets regardless of events [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/17/debt-ceiling-deal/
What The Debt Ceiling Deal MeansSummary The agreement to suspend the debt ceiling and fund the federal government will create a bipartisan committee with a target of December 13 for preparing a deficit reduction plan. The deal sets the stage for future fights. However, suspending the debt ceiling will give the Treasury the opportunity to reload its ability [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/525fffdde4b0c373ef83f070Thu, 17 Oct 2013 11:27:00 -04002013-10-17T11:27:00-04:00Summary The agreement to suspend the debt ceiling and fund the federal government will create a bipartisan committee with a target of December 13 for preparing a deficit reduction plan. The deal sets the stage for future fights. However, suspending the debt ceiling will give the Treasury the opportunity to reload its ability [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/15/debt-ceiling-deadline-to-default/
Debt Ceiling: Deadline To Default?Summary On Thursday, the Treasury estimates that it will have approximately $30 billion in its account with the Federal Reserve (Fed), and it will need to pay bills from its cash on hand. I think the chance of a default is pretty close to zero. Unless it gets rid of the debt limit, [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/525d9f62e4b0e9928b255f06Tue, 15 Oct 2013 16:24:00 -04002013-10-15T16:24:00-04:00Summary On Thursday, the Treasury estimates that it will have approximately $30 billion in its account with the Federal Reserve (Fed), and it will need to pay bills from its cash on hand. I think the chance of a default is pretty close to zero. Unless it gets rid of the debt limit, [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/09/finding-growth-stocks-in-a-slow-growth-environment/
Finding Growth Stocks In A Slow-Growth Environment The U.S. economy is growing, but just barely. What does that mean for growth investing? I sat down with Senior Portfolio Manager Tom Ognar, CFA, with Wells Capital Management’s Heritage Growth team to gather his insight. What follows is an excerpt of our interview for the investment news podcast On [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/5255c0bfe4b0e9928b2530afWed, 9 Oct 2013 16:56:00 -04002013-10-09T16:56:00-04:00 The U.S. economy is growing, but just barely. What does that mean for growth investing? I sat down with Senior Portfolio Manager Tom Ognar, CFA, with Wells Capital Management’s Heritage Growth team to gather his insight. What follows is an excerpt of our interview for the investment news podcast On [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/09/new-fed-chair-means-same-fed-policy/
New Fed Chair Means Same Fed PolicyPresident Obama will nominate Janet Yellen to become the first female head to chair the Federal Reserve (Fed). Currently, Dr. Yellen serves as the vice chair of the Fed. She has a distinguished career in central banking, dating back to 1977 when she served as an economist for the Fed. [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/525595bfe4b0e9928b252e64Wed, 9 Oct 2013 14:00:00 -04002013-10-09T14:00:00-04:00President Obama will nominate Janet Yellen to become the first female head to chair the Federal Reserve (Fed). Currently, Dr. Yellen serves as the vice chair of the Fed. She has a distinguished career in central banking, dating back to 1977 when she served as an economist for the Fed. [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/03/treasury-plays-politics-says-default-would-be-bad/
Treasury Plays Politics: Says Default Would Be BadThe U.S. Treasury released a six-page statement saying that the U.S. government defaulting on its debt would be bad.This is probably a good reminder to politicians that this game of brinkmanship can be damaging to consumer and business confidence, but it’s not a particularly useful statement to investors. The report starts [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/524de67ee4b0e9928b24cd55Thu, 3 Oct 2013 18:27:00 -04002013-10-03T18:27:00-04:00The U.S. Treasury released a six-page statement saying that the U.S. government defaulting on its debt would be bad.This is probably a good reminder to politicians that this game of brinkmanship can be damaging to consumer and business confidence, but it’s not a particularly useful statement to investors. The report starts [...]http://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/2013/10/01/government-shutdown-followed-by-default/
Government Shutdown, Followed By Default?The federal government’s fiscal year officially ended at midnight on September 30. The House and Senate have not been able to reconcile their differences in time to pass a spending bill to fund the federal government into the new fiscal year. Also, the U.S. Treasury claims it will run out [...]Brian Jacobsen, ContributorBrian Jacobsen, Contributorhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/brianjacobsen/524b491de4b0d2dafda1970dTue, 1 Oct 2013 20:59:00 -04002013-10-01T20:59:00-04:00The federal government’s fiscal year officially ended at midnight on September 30. The House and Senate have not been able to reconcile their differences in time to pass a spending bill to fund the federal government into the new fiscal year. Also, the U.S. Treasury claims it will run out [...]