UNITED NATIONS, Sep 22 (IPS) - At the height of the Cold War in
the 1950s and 1960s, the United States and the former Soviet Union
jealously safeguarded their own global political and military interests
by vetoing each other's resolutions in the most powerful body at
the United Nations: the Security Council.

"We will soon see the same cat-and-mouse game," predicts
one Asian diplomat, "only the players, and the power alignments,
may be different."

The issue that has triggered a new political battle is Iran's attempt
at developing what it calls "peaceful nuclear energy"
-- not nuclear weapons, as the Western world contends.

But the United States and the 25-member European Union (EU) are
refusing to buy the Iranian argument. Collectively, they are threatening
to punish Iran -- on charges that it may be on the verge of developing
nuclear weapons -- by referring the matter to the Security Council,
and possibly calling for military and economic sanctions against
Tehran.

However, their attempts are being thwarted by two veto-wielding
permanent members of the Council, namely China and Russia, who are
opposed to any immediate action against Iran.

The two key players in the new game are the EU, on the side of
the United States, and China on the side of Russia. India, another
nuclear power, is backing Iran despite pressure from the United
States.

"This dispute has given definition to a new East vs. West
rivalry, with the Eastern nuclear powers Russia, China, and India
forming a bloc against the interests of the Western nuclear powers,"
Michael Spies, programme associate at the New York-based Lawyer's
Committee on Nuclear Policy, told IPS.

Both the United States and the EU are trying to persuade the 35-member
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna to adopt a consensus
resolution singling out Iran for censure by the Security Council
in New York.

But with at least 10 countries opposed to such a move, the IAEA
is in danger of splitting. A consensus resolution is unlikely to
be a reality.

"Russia and China in particular have remained steadfast in
their opposition to Iran's referral to the Security Council by the
IAEA Board," Spies said. He pointed out that even India, also
an IAEA Board member, has come out in opposition to a Security Council
referral.

"Russia has specifically stated that this matter is still
at the stage where it is most appropriately addressed by the IAEA
and through negotiations. Russia and China have also indicated they
would likely veto any action taken by the Security Council,"
Spies said.

The speculation at the United Nations is that all three countries,
namely Russia, China and India, have been pushing forward with their
own current or planned economic and military projects with Iran
-- despite warnings from the United States that they halt nuclear
cooperation with the government in Tehran.

Iran has also been seeking to expand military and security cooperation
with all three states, prompting them to protect their own national
interests.

Spies predicted that a Security Council referral would certainly
harden Iran's position. "In the event of referral, Iran has
threatened to resume uranium enrichment, which is still suspended,
and to cease cooperation under the Additional Protocol, which it
has to ratify," he said.

He said that the involvement of the Security Council would mean
the end of the diplomatic path, which requires all sides to make
concessions on their current position in order to reach a mutually
acceptable outcome.

Iran's concessions to date have included both the suspension of
certain activities and an intrusive inspection regimen, above and
beyond the requirements of the Additional Protocol. All this would
certainly come to an end if the IAEA Board votes to refer, Spies
warned.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was quoted as saying:
"I am quite certain that at some point in time Iran is going
to be referred to the Security Council, particularly if Iran continues
to demonstrate that it is not prepared to give the international
community assurances that is not going to try to build nuclear weapons
under cover of civil power."

She also said that Iran's referral for possible sanctions is "nearly
certain", but only the timing is not.

Addressing the U.N. General Assembly last week, Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took a defiant stand, stressing his country's
"inalienable right" to develop nuclear energy.

He also accused the United States and its allies of nuclear "apartheid"
for their double standards in ignoring the development of nuclear
weapons by Israel. He said that a proposal for a nuclear weapons-free
zone in the Middle East is being thwarted by Israel.

Both the United States and the EU have expressed disappointment
over the hard line taken by the Iranian president. German Foreign
Minister Joschka Fischer said the speech was "anything but
helpful". Jack Straw, Foreign Secretary of Britain, the current
EU chair, also described the statement as "unhelpful".

Spies of the Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy said that while
it seems plausible that Iran is striving for the capability to produce
fissile materials, there is no evidence one way or the other that
its current programme goes beyond the role of supporting its civilian
reactor programme, which has been under construction since the 1970s.

"Security Council referral and a more aggressive international
posture would certainly be perceived in Iran as a threat to its
security, likely providing impetus to those elements in Iranian
society which call for it to develop a nuclear weapon as the ultimate
guarantor of its security," he argued.

In the broader geopolitical context, he said, the current Iranian
regime very quickly decided that political and economic integration
with the West is not essential for its development.

"Hence in all spheres of its policy, Iran is looking to develop
either complete self-sufficiency or is looking to bolster its transnational
relations within its own region and with the major powers in Asia,"
Spies said.

Backing from the larger states in particular has certainly emboldened
Iran's posture in regards to this issue. Also, it should be noted
that all the active players on both sides of this debate, with the
exception of Germany, are nuclear powers, he added.