The Weekly Gut Check Vol. 157 - Maximizing Sleeper RBs

Posted 6/14 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy
football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Part I of a series devoted to incorporating risk into your draft.

WARNING: If you are looking for the safest way to
win a league, this month-long series is not the answer. However, the ideas,
trends, and players mentioned here should help you with your individual approach
in leagues where your peers also have a strong knowledge base. The key is
how much you want to "break the rules." If "high-risk"
in your daily life means taking a different way to work, and the word "reach"
makes you cringe, then keep your GPS switched on, check out David Dodd's annual
piece "The Perfect Draft." His well-conceived strategy should give
you a good shot at a contender through by-the-book picks and depth. Consider
these articles as a creative place where you see how "pushing the envelope"
could work out for you and incorporate what you like/dislike accordingly.

Why go for Broke?

I don't know about you, but I can't remember the last time I didn't play in
a competitive league. With the major media now fantasy friendly, the average
fantasy owner is better informed. If you compete in a long-standing league where
you remember scoring with newspaper box scores, then chances are your peers
are pretty hardcore and they now use Average Draft Position (ADP), Value Based
Drafting (VBD), and updated rankings of prominent fantasy writers.

When I first accepted invitations to join showcase leagues to compete with
other fantasy football writers, I was self-conscious about how an audience of
readers would perceive my drafts. If my teams were going to be on display in
newsstands across the country or someone's web site, I wanted people to know
that I knew how to play the game. And my teams appeared on other writer's postdraft
evaluations as a "team to beat." However, when the season ended, I was at best,
a first-round playoff loser.

The following year, I decided to return to my style of fantasy football. The
postdraft feedback wasn't pretty. I remember lurking Shark Pool and reading
a thread David Dodds posted to show the results of a draft we just completed.
None of the posters even mentioned my team as a worthwhile squad. In fact, there
were a few who said my team as most likely to bomb. In a sense, it was a backhanded
compliment, because this reaction is common when you don't play it safe.

However, the reward was great. When the season was complete, I only lost two
games on my way to a championship. It was the first of back-to-back titles in
that league. Although I bombed the third year, I used a high-risk approach in
the only two showcase leagues I competed in and captured three championships
in two years. This validated something I had to accept about my playing style:
I enjoy taking chances.

If you want a shot at winning big there is a point where you need to demonstrate
some comfort with risk. It doesn't always have to entail a major strategy shift
and sometimes going crazy like I do. However, I recommend you to knock it until
you try it. If you decide to take the road less traveled, be prepared to begin
your season with remarks like "that's crazy, it will never work,"
but end with congratulatory e-mails 12-16 weeks later that say "that was
genius."

Where you take your risk depends on where you are most risk-tolerant; it could
be somewhere during the draft, the waiver wire, a trade, or choosing your lineup.
In this series, I'm going to explore ways to push the envelope with your draft
strategy. I will profile a high-risk draft strategy and then discuss players
who I believe could be worth incorporating into the approach. I have tried these
strategies and have been successful at least once. If I'm in enough redraft
leagues to give it a shot, I will try them again as a way of reporting how they
work for me. In sense, I'll be the guinea pig for those of you interested in
high-risk possibilities, but want to see it played out.

Maximizing Sleeper RBs

According to convention, you should use average draft position to determine
a player's value and allow them to fall to you within what is considered an
acceptable range. However, what if you're competing with 11 other fantasy owners
with a similar knowledge base? Maybe they read the same info and frequent the
same boards. You could choose to play out the string, build a team that looks
logical on paper, and hope those "great values" actually pan out and
become "great producers." Maybe you'll have a contender, but you passed
up on three to five players who could have made your team dominant, but you
were too consumed with following conventional wisdom.

A play-it-safe strategy will help a fantasy owner avoid risks that could hurt
them, but it also eliminates ideas that deviate from the norm that could also
significantly help them. Most fantasy owners don't have the fortitude to be
that aggressive, because they fear one of two things: not building a team that
looks good to them on paper and getting subjected to ridicule for your approach.

However, I'm not espousing you pick kickers and team defenses before skill
players. I'm asking you to develop an expertise at accurately identifying sleeper
RBs and using them as the linchpin for building your team. The risk is high,
but the approach allows a fantasy owner to have a greater chance at the elite
players at the other positions during the first five to seven rounds of his
draft.

If you choose wisely, you have a great shot at building a dominant starting
lineup. You will have to hit a few bull's eyes in order to succeed, which naturally
means this strategy has a higher difficulty of execution. If you identify mid-round
backs that succeed, you'll have the pick of the litter at other positions.

The typical fantasy league starting line up incorporates 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs,
and 1 TE. From a Value Based Drafting perspective, running back predominates
as the position of choice during the first 15-17 picks in a draft. There's a
good logic there, but there is more annual turnover with RB rankings than any
position in fantasy football. I showed this chart based on data from 2004-2008
in my piece on RB Workloads, but it applies once again:

Three-year Avg.

Avg. Pct.

Avg. # Players

Top 12 Turnover

61%

7.3

Top 24 Turnover

47%

11.3

Rookies in Top 12

19%

2.3

Rookies in Top 24

14%

3.3

Three Yrs in Top 12

14%

1.7

Three Yrs in Top 24

24%

5.7

Think about what this chart indicates. We know that the running back position
is the most valuable in the majority of fantasy leagues. You should also know
it is the least stable position when it comes to year-to-year consistency of
performance. On average, nearly two-thirds of the RBs in the top 12 one year
were not there the next and the turnover in the top 24 is high enough that you
can build a team with a significant advantage at QB, WR, and TE by properly
identifying and targeting mid-to-late round RB sleepers who will provide top-24
production as your slated starters. It's a risky strategy, but so is counting
on your No. 1 back picked among the first 12 players to be among the 39% who
will remain in the top 12 or the near equivalent of a coin flip for the top
24.

If you're competing in a league where most owners select two backs within the
first three rounds, in theory it could make sense to capitalize on the best
receiving and tight end talent, especially if you identify the lesser-valued
RBs who far out-produce their draft spot. Between 2006-2008, an average of 19.33
receivers remained in the Top 36 at their position for consecutive seasons.
Fifty-three percent had a two-year run in the Top 24 and Top 12, respectively.
An average for 14.67 receivers remained in the fantasy Top 36 for three consecutive
seasons, that's over twice the amount of backs that remained fantasy starters.
More promising odds, don't you think?

Another argument in favor of targeting receivers earlier is that the best fantasy
WRs has a higher percentage of consistency than any offensive fantasy position.
I refer to consistency as a high frequency of exceeding a minimum level of fantasy
point production, not standard deviation-based formulas. Although still changeable,
you can see there is more stability at the WR position.

The TE position has similar consistency. Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, and Antonio
Gates have been three of the top six TEs from 2004 through 2008 and at least
one, if not all three, were in the top three every year. That should be enough
to tell you if you target one of the stud receiving TEs, you'll be in good shape.
There's a good argument that Witten and Gonzalez could see a decline in production
because of T.O. leaving Dallas and Gonzalez leaving Kansas City, but I don't
agree with the logic. Roy Williams may not produce as well as Owens, but he'll
be good enough to help Witten avoid more bracketed coverage than he saw in the
past. Gonzalez may be in a new system in Atlanta, but he's with a good, young
QB and that's something he's lacked for a few years in Kansas City and it didn't
hurt him. The offensive system change is also an overblown concern. Gonzalez
changed systems in the past and was still successful.

However, I would consider a top echelon quarterback before an elite TE. Granted,
the top performing QBs tend to be more changeable and the fantasy point gap
among the position isn't usually as great as it is among runners. Yet, there
are three reasonable candidates with a strong shot to perform among the top
three. Peyton Manning has been a top-six performer for five straight years and
shows no signs of slowing down. Drew Brees has been at or near the top three
times, despite his surrounding talent still on the rise. I also expect Tom Brady
to rebound in an offense stacked with talent, as long as his knee is ready to
go.

The "turn" (spots 9-12 or 1-3) is a place where you can logically
consider a higher risk strategy. At spots 9-12, you can disguise this high-risk
strategy to the less observant owners in your league in the early rounds because
your turns will mimic the average draft position of the top WRs and QBs on the
board. On the other hand, when using this strategy on the opposite turn (spots
1-3), you obviously need to be thick-skinned and prepared to handle the ridicule
coming your way when you don't select RBs early. It's also not the best scenario
when you have the pick of (nearly) any back you wish. However, there is a decent
variation I'll profile later.

First, I'll profile the sleeper candidates I recommend based on their talent,
situation, and ADP. Then, I'll use a combination of current ADP
data Footballguys compiled from various sources to create a series of 12-team
league mock drafts with the first 12 of 18 rounds completed.

2009 Sleeper RB Candidates

We all know the term sleeper no longer has the same meaning it did when newspaper
box scores were still a viable and timely way to get fantasy information. But
some players have undeniable talent that fantasy owners lose sight of due to
factors that include injuries, players ahead of them on the depth chart with
a modicum of talent, or at least decent knowledge of the offense and a bigger
contract. The position this occurs with the most dramatic effect is running
back.

Off the top of my head, here are seven players in recent seasons whose talents
were easy to see when they were on the field, but it took longer (due to the
player in parenthesis) than a season for them to enjoy fantasy success:

Priest Holmes (Jamal Lewis)

Deuce McAllister (Ricky Williams)

Larry Johnson (Priest Holmes)

DeAngelo Williams (DeShaun Foster)

Frank Gore (Kevan Barlow)

Brandon Jacobs (Tiki Barber)

Brian Westbrook (Duce Staley)

Steven Jackson (Marshall Faulk)

These players all turned out to be the heir apparent, but I read numerous takes
at the time that DeAngelo Williams, Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and Brian Westbrook
were not locks to be their team's future bell cow back. The great Priest Holmes'
move to Kansas City wasn't seen as a major shift in the fantasy landscape -
there were many who thought Tony Richardson was the sneaky good fantasy pick
and Holmes would be a Kevin Faulk-like, complementary back.

Which backs have a reasonably good chance to producer starter worthy numbers
in 2009 after seeing limited time on the field in 2008? Here are my nine plus
a rookie, and in parenthesis their recent ADP after 1215 drafts at Fantasy Football
Calculator from 5/26 through 6/1 and 98 qualifying drafts courtesy of mockdraftcentral.com
from 5/23 through 6/2. The table shows the ADP, the earliest the player was
picked and the latest. The order I have these 10 backs listed is based on a
combination of how much I like their breakout potential and how well their ADP
has potential to make each a player a match for this high-risk strategy:

Player

Fantasy Calculator Mocks

Mock Draft Central Mocks

ADP

High

Low

ADP

High

Low

Ray Rice

9.09

6.06

13.12

12.06

7.02

ND

Rashard Mendenhall

8.04

6.07

12.09

8.06

7.06

10.07

Fred Taylor

12.12

8.12

15.12

9.09

8.01

12.03

Felix Jones

7.04

5.03

9.10

7.03

5.03

7.09

Donald Brown

8.01

5.08

10.04

7.05

5.03

8.06

Cedric Benson

6.09

4.12

8.08

6.07

4.12

7.08

LenDale White

6.11

4.11

8.12

6.04

4.06

7.05

Julius Jones

8.03

5.12

10.07

9.12

7.03

12.06

Willis McGahee

8.10

6.01

11.08

7.06

5.09

8.08

Laurence Maroney

11.10

8.01

15.08

12.11

7.08

ND

Right now, you may be looking at these 10 backs and be terrified at the prospect
of leading off with two of them as your starters. In June, I would agree with
you. But two months from now, it's quite possible we'll see half of these players
in situations that appear more promising and their ADP will still be low enough
to consider them great value.

One of the reasons I chose these player is they have a late, sixth-round selection
average as their absolute high end at this point and this will help you stay
a few steps ahead of your competition. What I mean is you might want to draft
these players a round or two earlier than their ADP. Reach? In today's
fantasy football savvy environment this might be known as "insanity,"
but there is a reason for the cliché there's a fine line between genius and
insanity. I'd also argue that once something becomes conventional wisdom
it's no longer wise.

As it stands today, Cedric Benson, LenDale White, and Felix Jones have the
highest average draft position among the backs on this list and they all fall
somewhere in the middle to the bottom of the list in terms of how much I like
them. This is because their value will need to hold steady for a fantasy owner
to draft them a round earlier than their current ADP to insure they at least
get three WRs, and an elite QB before making the selection. Plus, I think Felix
Jones only presents elite-quality upside of the three.

In a 12-team redraft league, Mendenhall, Rice, and Taylor's ADPs make them
good bargains because I believe they have No. 1 RB upside. If these ADPs remain
stable through mid-August you have more room to draft these players earlier
than your competition will rate them. Funny enough, the players I listed near
the top of the table who I think have No. 1 RB potential could be drafted AFTER
you pick the RBs lower on this list who have a higher ADP, but in my opinion,
No. 2 RB potential.

Confusing? To keep it simple, if you can manage to target four of the top six
backs in this table between rounds six through nine, I believe at least two
of these players have a good chance to give you No. 1 and No. 2 quality RB production
at a huge bargain. If you're willing to take the risk and wait to load up your
backfield in the mid-rounds, the potential rewards are excellent. Here's my
take on each player and my recommended approach for this draft strategy:

Ray Rice

(Availability rounds 9-12; highest round 6.11)

I consider myself a pretty fair connoisseur of RB talent. Ray Rice is a highly
talented prospect that quickly fell below the radar of most redraft fantasy
owners this year when he disappeared into the mix of the Baltimore Ravens backfield
and crop of highly productive rookies during the 2008 season. To be fair, fantasy
owners aren't overlooking him. They safely regard him as a back with upside
they can select in the second half of a draft, and, depending on how much he
pans out, what they will get ranges from nice depth to an absolute steal. I
believe Rice will be an absolute steal for several fantasy owners, because purely
from the standpoint of skill between the tackles, Rice has the most potential.

At Rutgers, Rice was one of the biggest workhorse backs in college football
and he demonstrated the patience and skill to move the chains week after week.
He's a strong back who is built low to the ground and he can make it difficult
for defenders to spot him between the tackles. Once he makes contact with a
defender, he understands how to drive his legs to maximize his gains.

Rice's trademark in college was his stamina. Everyone likes to talk about a
player's timed speed, but as we saw in a show like Spike's 4th and Long,
it's one thing to run a 4.4 40 after a warm-up, it's completely different to
run a 4.4 40 after taking a beating for 45 minutes. In college, Ray Rice had
the stamina to play the same speed in the fourth quarter as he did in the first
quarter. Rice showed some of that burst during his rookie year, but it wasn't
consistently there in the fourth quarter. An NFL insider I spoke with last year
said you can always tell a player has the favor of the coaching staff when
he's used extensively in the fourth quarter.

Last year, Rice wasn't a fourth-quarter player. This year the Baltimoreravens.com
quoted coach John Harbaugh with this to say about the second-year runner. "He
is a little bigger, and he's actually learner, bigger, faster, quicker. He really
practiced hard. And he's in great shape. He looks good."

QB Joe Flacco says in the same web site report, "Ray improved immensely
during the season last year, and then he ended up getting a little banged up
and he couldn't play the last three or four games. But Ray's going to make huge
improvements. And you can already see that out there. Again, today he probably
feels the same way I do - a lot more comfortable with what he doing. And his
job is to get in there and do what he does and help out the other guys."

These quotes should tell you that Ray Rice now understands what he needed to
do to get the stamina he needed to be as quick, strong, and fast in the fourth
quarter of NFL games as he was in the NCAA. Considering Le'Ron McClain is slated
to play FB and has added extra weight and Willis McGahee is in the final year
of his contract, Rice has a very good shot to start in 2009. It doesn't hurt
that he's been taking most of his reps with the first-team offense, although
part of the reason he is has to do with McGahee rehabbing his ankle.

Still the writing is on the wall that it is Rice's job to win this year. He
quietly posted 727 yards from scrimmage as a rookie in a three-headed, tail
back rotation for a team that would love to continue to play ball control to
complement its tough defense. I think the long-term future of this backfield
will be Ray Rice and rookie Cedric Peerman, a highly underrated runner from
Virginia but this year, Rice is the best bet to see enough carries to be in
at least an RBBC with McGahee. If Rice continues to look like the best back
on the field in Baltimore's training camp, coach Harbaugh will have no problem
using him that way.

High-risk recommendation: John Harbaugh has already stated he believes
in Rice's every-down potential and with Willis McGahee in his final year, I
believe we'll see a changing of the guard this year if the Ravens truly believe
what they say. Although his ADP is lower than that of players below him on this
list (Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall), I expect Rice's ADP to rise, as the
preseason gets under way and skeptical fantasy owners begin to see true indications
of what I'm projecting. In terms of ADP, the hope is Harbaugh and the Ravens
remain tightlipped about the halfback position to keep his value depressed early
in the preseason and the announcement of the starting lineup comes after most
owners hold their drafts. As long as Rice continues to get good press without
any depth chart pronouncements, acquiring him should pay dividends.

Rashard Mendenhall

(Availability rounds 8-12; highest round 6.09)

I believe the 2008 RB class had some of the best runners I've evaluated in
the four years I've been studying film. Mendenhall took a little longer to win
me over because I initially had a difficult time judging his speed and decision-making
in the spread offense. However, the Illinois back is a very physical player
with excellent burst and hands. He's a great fit for the Pittsburgh Steelers
because he's capable of breaking a big play and wearing down an opposing defense
in the second half of a game.

Willie Parker has been a good runner for the Steelers, but the overachieving
speedster from North Carolina has been criticized in the past for his deficiencies
as a short yardage back. Last year he had a combined seven carries for 18 yards
with no scores on 3rd and 4th down carries. In contrast, a player like Adrian
Peterson had 31 carries for 192 yards and four scores. Michael Turner, another
bell cow back, had 20 carries for 84 yards and three scores. Even the diminutive
Maurice Jones-Drew behind a makeshift offensive line had 27 attempts or 100
yards. Mendenhall with his combo of speed and power has a prime opportunity
to be both the short yardage back and the first and second down runner in Pittsburgh
this year.

The second-year pro's two deficiencies as a rookie heading to the NFL was his
penchant for carrying the ball too far from his body and pass blocking. If Mendenhall
corrects these two issues he has shown enough skill as a runner to be make Willie
Parker a valuable insurance policy for the Steelers. Parker has already indicated
that he wants to remain a Steeler, knowing that his time as a starter in Pittsburgh
is ending sooner than later. This team-first attitude will also make the offense's
transition to Mendenhall easier.

It's highly possible the best-case scenario for Mendenhall is to split time
with Parker in 2009 and this could make him an unpredictable fantasy option.
Mini camp reports have been glowing about Mendenhall this spring and if he can
carry his performance into training camp and the preseason, the Steelers could
easily rationalize Parker's demotion as a way to keep him fresh for the playoff
run and Mendenhall is built more to survive the pounding of the 16-week schedule.
Think about the Ravens-Titans Divisional match up last January: the guy with
the freshest legs on the field appeared to be Chris Johnson, who was ripping
the Ravens defense until he got hurt. Some of that freshness might be attributed
to Johnson sharing a workload with LenDale White. True or false, it is a valid
perception and if Mendenhall gets into the game and performs to his potential,
Parker could wind up more like Jerious Norwood to Mendenhall's version of Michael
Turner.

High-risk recommendation: Many fantasy owners will shy away from Mendenhall
because they will harp on his penchant to fumble the ball late in the 2008 preseason
and his trash-talking text exchange with Ray Rice that resulted in Ray Lewis
laying the smack down and breaking the rookie's shoulder. That's good for you
if you're looking for a player who has the skills, and pretty good odds to capture
the lead back role on a run-oriented team, to gain 1300 yards and double-digit
scores that you can draft after most of the projected fantasy No. 1 and No.
2 backs are off the board.

Fred Taylor

(Availability rounds 10-14; highest round 8.00)

The fact of even considering a 34-year-old RB as a major cog in a fantasy lineup
is high-risk. However, a funny thing happens when view the stats of players
who had a career illustrious enough to play a twelfth season in the NFL - they're
pretty good.

A Sample of Recent RBs and Their 12th NFL Season

Player

Team

Year

G

Rush Att

Rush Yds

Rush Tds

Rec Yd

Rec Td

FF Pts

John Riggins

was

1983

15

375

1347

24

29

0

281.6

Walter Payton

chi

1986

16

321

1333

8

382

3

237.5

Ottis Anderson

nyg

1989

16

325

1023

14

268

0

213.1

Marcus Allen

kan

1993

16

206

764

12

238

3

190.2

Jerome Bettis

pit

2004

15

250

941

13

46

0

176.7

Franco Harris

pit

1983

16

279

1007

5

278

2

170.5

Emmitt Smith

dal

2001

14

261

1021

3

116

0

131.7

Warrick Dunn

tam

2008

15

186

786

2

330

0

123.6

Earnest Byner

cle

1995

16

115

432

2

494

2

116.6

Tony Dorsett

den

1988

16

181

703

5

122

0

112.5

Marshall Faulk

ram

2005

16

65

292

0

291

1

64.3

Thurman Thomas

buf

1999

5

36

152

0

37

1

24.9

James Brooks

cle

1992

4

13

38

0

-1

0

3.7

James Brooks

tam

1992

2

5

6

0

0

0

0.6

SI.com's Peter King makes the point in a February column that Bill Belichick
has succeeded with older players like Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon and that
a combo of Taylor and Sammy Morris could have that similar blueprint. The only
problem is Smith was only in the fifth year of his career in 2001 when he helped
the Pats win their first Super Bowl. Dillon is a bit more of a compelling argument
because he worked in New England from years eight through 10 of his career,
scoring double-digit TDs each season. However, we want to look at those rare
backs that played more than a decade.

This list doesn't include every runner that played at least 12 seasons in the
NFL, but it's a healthy sample since there are so few. Based on physical ability
alone, I would argue that Fred Taylor was every bit as talented as any player
on this list. You could argue that Taylor's skills diminished quickly because
as King mentions, he averaged only 3.9 yards per carry last year. However, then
how do you justify Maurice Jones-Drew's dip to 4.2 yards per attempt? Is one
the result of an offensive line left in a shambles due to injuries and the other
age? I don't think so. From 2003-2007, Taylor averaged 4.7 yards per carry and
both he and his offensive line remained reasonably healthy during that span.

Riggins, Anderson, and Allen all had seasons with reduced carry counts leading
to their 12th year and if you include the other players who comprise the top
eight on this list, none of them had chronic injuries or deteriorating physical
conditions. A healthy Fred Taylor has a chance to have a year or two of excellent
production in an offense with a larger workload and a great passing game. Taylor
hasn't had the benefit of a passing game this good since Mark Brunell, Jimmy
Smith, and Keenan McCardell were AFC favorites in the late 90s.

Taylor was the 18th ranked back in 2006 and 2007, despite sharing time with
Maurice Jones-Drew. If Bill Belichick has truly lost his faith in Laurence Maroney,
the only back whose talent approaches Taylor's, Taylor has a great opportunity
to get 220-270 carries in New England. If this happens, fantasy owners could
get at least a No. 2 quality fantasy back available in rounds 10-14 of drafts.

High-risk recommendation: If Taylor's ADP continues to hover in the
same range as it is in June, I would suggest drafting Taylor no later than round
seven as your team's projected No. 2 RB. If his ADP increases where his ADP
is close to the range of rounds 8-12, I would consider him in round six if you
grabbed three strong receivers and an elite QB in the first four rounds.

Felix Jones

(Availability rounds 6-8; highest round 5.02)

The "other" rookie back from Arkansas only got touches in five games
last year, but he produced at least 12 fantasy points in three of them although
never earning more than 10 touches in any contest. That's what you call big-play
potential. I thought Jones was a better all-around prospect at RB than his more
heralded Razorback teammate Darren McFadden. Jones demonstrated more polish
as a between the tackles runner. He ran with better balance, pad level, and
patience.

Marion Barber III is still the lead back for the Cowboys and deservedly so.
Barber is a tough, versatile runner with a great nose for the red zone. However,
I think the Cowboys offense will be borrowing a page from the Giants playbook
this year because they have discovered they possess three strong runners on
their depth chart and the team performs better when Tony Romo isn't forced to
be the full-time offensive savior. Barber averaged well over four yards per
carry and had double-digit scores in 2006-2007 when Julius Jones took a bulk
of the carries. In 2008, Barber only had 34 more carries than he did in 2007
but his YPC dipped by more than a yard and he missed a game due to injury. His
hard-charging style does concern some that he might be best used in a committee
approach and I find it difficult to believe the Cowboys won't try to get Felix
Jones at least 150 carries in 2009 if Barber is healthy.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a more even split between Barber and
Jones and we see Jones earn closer to 200 carries, especially with the T.O.
lobby eliminated from the equation. Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones has told the
media he expects Jones to get a significant share of the carries. At this point,
the second-year runner has enough promise to risk drafting him as your No. 2
RB in an offense I expect to emphasize the run. If Barber gets hurt, then Jones
has the ability to be a top-12 candidate for fantasy consideration. A preseason
injury to Barber will likely cause Jones' ADP to skyrocket unless the Cowboys
do enough talking about Tashard Choice to keep Jones' value within the range
of rounds four to six. Either way, Jones has enough size and between the tackles
skills to draw comparisons to a young Clinton Portis. With or without Barber
in the Dallas backfield, Jones should get 12-15 touches per game and that just
might be enough to make him a sneaky good fantasy starter. Risky, but viable

High-risk recommendation: I expect a 45/40/15 split for Barber/Jones/Choice,
which means Jones has a good chance to be a top-24 RB. Because his current ADP
shows a lot of fantasy owners agree that he has excellent upside, you'll want
to consider him as one of the first No. 2 RBs on your list or you'll risk losing
out on him otherwise. You won't want to draft him any earlier than the sixth
round. However, because this is within the range of his current ADP, you need
to make sure you're all right with acquiring the RBs below him on this list
if someone nabs him ahead of you.

Donald Brown

(Availability rounds 7-9; highest round 5.03)

The Colts' first-round pick didn't get selected that high to wait a few years
for an opportunity. Based on the fact Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai were selected
in round one and started as rookies, I have to believe that Donald Brown wasn't
selected this high to even sit on the bench. Bill Polian is still one of the
better GMs in the business and he was the same front office head who drafted
a versatile, fluid runner for the Bills by the name of Thurman Thomas. Donald
Brown reminds me a little of Thomas because of his vision, acceleration, and
agility.

I thought Joseph Addai was a fine back when he graduated from LSU, but his
injury problems in college have resurfaced in the NFL. The third-year starter
for the Colts is a good receiver and excellent blocker. Barring a slow recovery
to offseason knee surgery to clean up lose particles in Addai's knee, Brown
will need to improve his pass protection skills to take the job outright from
the veteran.

However, when I consider the combination of Brown's well regarded work ethic,
his ability to be the offense on a one-dimensional college squad, and his competition
for the starting job has shown a propensity for injury, I think Brown's chances
to at least split time and produce starter-quality numbers for a fantasy roster
are good. Sure, you have to draft him reasonably high, but considering I have
ranked four players ahead of Brown on this high-risk, target list and their
ADPs are lower, then you just have to draft Brown with the mindset that you're
getting your projected back up before your projected starters. It's counterintuitive,
but then again so is Brown's ADP when he hasn't officially nailed down a starting
role and no one seems to be flinching about that point.

High-Risk Recommendation: As you'll see with the mock where my team
had a slot in the middle portion of the draft, I picked Brown a round earlier
than his current ADP, but as my third back after two starters. This is due to
the fact that Brown is a rookie and a healthy Addai is formidable obstacle.
I still have him ranked even with a back like Cedric Benson who's track record
in the NFL has been uninspiring, but the change of scenery and flashes of production
have me feeling Benson is much like Brown, a rookie with an opportunity to play
in a healthy, productive offense. The difference is that I believe Brown has
the maturity out of the gate to be a major producer as a rookie. Benson is just
figuring it out and it might be too little, too late.

Cedric Benson

(Availability rounds 5-7; highest round 4.12)

Cedric Benson had an immature outlook about being a pro athlete when he came
out of school. It should be no surprise; we can't expect every guy in his early
20s who has been given the star treatment to take a mature approach to his first
full-time job. Otherwise, I'd be willing to wager a certain number of chief
executive officers and politicians out of Ivy League schools would have never
made it where they are today.

Garrison Hearst was a back I got a chance to observe in college. Hearst was
the kind of person at Georgia where some of his teammates would roll their eyes
when you asked them where he was during media sessions after practice because
Hearst was frequently late. He also had other behavior that could be best described
as self-absorbed, such as spending more time carving things into his desk than
participating in class. It doesn't make Hearst a bad guy, but I'd speculate
was a factor in his less than stellar start in Arizona. Buddy Ryan didn't kiss
Hearst's behind when he arrived in Arizona and I think it was a slow realization
that things were no longer going to be as easy as it was in the past. Hearst
eventually showed the maturity to become a productive player and it helped him
marshal the fortitude to have one of the greatest comebacks from career threatening
injury that the NFL as seen.

There's no question Cedric Benson has the physical skills to be a starter in
the NFL, but something has been missing. He had a tearful postdraft interview
on ESPN that made him seem ill prepared to handle the scrutiny that comes with
a public career and his off the field behavior proved this was the case early
on. A 747-yard season last year doesn't prove much, especially with a 3.5 YPC
average, but I'm willing to take my chances with Benson as a placeholder, No.
2 RB for this high-risk approach because the Bengals offense lacked a lot of
punch without Chad Johnson and a healthy Carson Palmer. With these two offensive
leaders healthy for 2009, Benson has a chance to find bigger rushing lanes against
teams other than inferior defensive units like the 2008 versions of Cleveland
and Kansas City.

High-Risk Recommendation: Unless rookie Bernard Scott has a blazing
preseason, which is a possibility for the talented rookie, Benson will at least
be a two-down starter in a Cincinnati offense that should regain its dynamic
passing attack. I think that makes Benson's upside at 250 carries, which could
make him an effective No. 2 RB. At worst, I think he's a cheap and effective
back for the first month of the season. Unless this strategy strikes out on
half the backs on this list, there's a good shot you'll finish the season with
two worthwhile starting backs. Benson should hold down the fort if nothing else.

LenDale White

(Availability rounds 6-7; highest round 4.11)

White is a back few people like, but they are happy to draft him within a vary
narrow range in the mid-rounds because he plays behind a run-based offense and
he scored double-digit touchdowns in 2008. I have never been a fan of White
because I didn't think he show the consistent effort to maximize his innate
skills as a runner. This was evident in college to the close observer, but it
was clearly exposed when he reached the NFL.

White got a wake up call after fumbling late in the AFC Divisional Playoffs
versus the Ravens. Apparently, he's taken the correct approach in response:
he got into much better shape and he's looking quicker in mini camp and OTAs.
If White can prove he's upped his initial quickness and stamina, he could be
a real bull in the 4th quarter of games - something the Titans expected from
him at USC. What they got instead was a decent goal line back who averaged less
than four yards per carry because he lacked the conditioning to consistently
get through the hole quickly and decisively. If this changes, White could make
the Titans' season easier than expected.

Everyone expects Chris Johnson to be the star in this offense, and rightly
so, but I think a confluence of events maximized Johnson's value in 2008: great
defensive line play spearheaded by Albert Haynesworth that allowed the defense
to be aggressive second and third down; a healthy offensive line clearing holes
for the ground game; a Vince Young injury that led to the team opting for a
more mature, decisive Kerry Collins; and LenDale White's lackluster play between
the 20s. In 2009, I believe Johnson might have a tough time getting as many
carries because the defense will have to cope with the loss of Haynesworth and
that makes it easier for opposing offenses to find mismatches when they aren't
committing 20-25 percent of their offensive manpower to stopping the All-Pro
DT. The result will be higher scoring games where Tennessee may have to play
from behind and throw the ball. This should help Johnson's reception total,
but I think Johnson's injury in the second half of the Ravens game is a good
example why the Titans would love nothing more than to have a reason to give
the ball at least 15 times per game to White.

High-risk recommendation: I think White will at least be good enough
to produce like he did last year because he's clearly the guy the Titans want
to use at the goal line. White was the 20th-ranked fantasy back last season
because of his high TD total. An in-shape White should earn another four to
five carries per game, which should get him into the range of 240-250 attempts
in 2009. An in-shape White should also be quick enough to average at least four
yards per carry behind this Tennessee line. I'd say a back with good potential
for double digit scores and a reasonable shot at 1000 yards is worthwhile to
acquire in rounds six or seven with this strategy as your No. 2 RB, don't you?
I think White is about even with Benson because I think he's in a better run
offense, but Benson has first dibs on locking up the starting job for his team
and White doesn't.

Julius Jones

(Availability rounds 7-9; highest round 5.12)

As RB fantasy starters go, Jones is like the last kid picked on the playground
for a team. Jones has good speed and quickness and his first season in Seattle
was hampered by significant injuries to the Seahawks passing game that limited
Jones potential. At the same time, great backs generally play better than Jones
even in this situation.

However, we're not expecting Jones to be an elite player, just a decent one.
With Matt Hasselbeck, Deion Branch, and Nate Burleson healthy, Jones should
see better down and distance opportunities to earn some decent gains. Like Benson
and White, Jones should start but he'll need to show he's a late bloomer along
the lines of his older brother Thomas to prove he's more than an average starter.

High-risk recommendation: Despite the fact I think he's an average back,
a healthy Seattle passing attack makes Jones a reasonable gamble if he drops
past round seven and you have two or three backs higher on this list. You should
at least acquire a bye-week/injury sub with upside.

Willis McGahee

(Availability rounds 6-8; highest round 5.09)

McGahee comes into Ravens camp as the lame duck, No. 1 back on the depth chart.
Coach John Harbaugh already thinks Ray Rice has enough skill to be a feature
back. One theory is the Ravens will "run McGahee into the ground"
because McGahee will be auditioning for a payday with a new team in 2010. My
question about this theory is, who is going to make McGahee, who will be a six-year
vet with decent, but not breathtaking production, a starter in a league filled
with younger backs that demonstrate a far better work ethic? I guess it only
takes one team to make an offer, but I believe teams will no longer perceive
McGahee as a full-time starter next year. They may say "he's a starting-quality
back," but that's different than saying, "he's a player we can build
around." Contributor? Yes. Build around? No way.

The Ravens took Le'Ron McClain, their best runner in 2008, and moved him back
to fullback and drafted a quality prospect in Cedric Peerman whom they expect
to contribute on special teams. That leaves the ball in the hands of McGahee
and Rice. I believe this means the Ravens are more confident in Rice's improvement
than they are McGahee. My theory is teams like Baltimore start the player who
gives them the best chance to win, not start the player who they can "use
up" and not worry about hurting their long-term plans at the position.

If McGahee proves he's the best player, then he's definitely worth a pick where
the current ADP says he's available. If he stays healthy and plays inspired
football, he's capable of being a No. 1 RB in fantasy leagues. However, I believe
the only reason McGahee gets a full-time role is if his RBBC co-starter Rice
gets hurt. Otherwise, expect a timeshare that's split down the middle, if not
favoring Rice.

High-risk recommendation: As with Jones, McGahee is worth a pick after
round seven where he's a reasonable bargain even with this high-risk approach.
Rice may not have earned the job yet, but I believe he's the player to beat
in this backfield situation. McGahee makes a worthwhile handcuff if you get
Rice where I prescribed.

Laurence Maroney

(Availability rounds 10-13; highest round 8.03)

Sitting fourth on the Patriots' depth chart this spring, Maroney is likely
at his all-time low as a fantasy performer. He's perceived as a player whose
development has regressed and he cannot stay healthy. Shoulder injuries are
worrisome when they have to do with the ligaments and tendons, because the pounding
a runner takes can turn these types of injuries into chronic issues. Fortunately
for Maroney, he suffered a break and there shouldn't be many worries about his
long-term health.

When it comes to talent, only Fred Taylor in his prime is a better runner than
Maroney on New England's depth chart. Maroney has breakaway speed and he is
supremely skillful making lateral cuts on the move. After averaging well over
four yards per carry in his first two seasons with the Patriots, Maroney seemed
destined to become a fantasy force.

However, New England has no qualms about using a committee approach with their
runners. The Patriots acquired longtime Jacksonville standout Fred Taylor, who
is expected to be the lead back in their committee. Kevin Faulk, a Bill Belichick
favorite, is the football equivalent of a utility infielder in baseball (Anyone
remember Jerry Royster? That's Kevin Faulk on the diamond) and Sammy Morris
has that 'tweener versatility to be effective both as a HB and FB. Even BenJarvus
Green-Ellis was effective in the Pats system. Maroney's placement at fourth
on the depth chart sends a clear message that the fourth-year back has to prove
something in order to earn his way back into the good graces of the coaching
staff.

High-risk recommendation: Although the packed depth chart doesn't make
Maroney as promising a prospect to be used for this strategy, he's still worth
monitoring because depth charts can mean very little in preseason football -
especially in New England where providing anything worthwhile to the general
media is last on this organization's list. If Maroney plays like he's capable,
he's as talented as a Ray Rice or Rashard Mendenhall. The key is to watch and
wait for any indications Maroney will get his chance. Right now, I think he's
too much of a long shot to incorporate into this high-risk strategy but a lot
can change in eight to 12 weeks. If reports out of Pats camp indicate he'll
split time with Taylor, he becomes a late-round handcuff with upside.

Using the Sleeper RB Strategy

The first example will be the first 12 rounds of an 18-round draft where I
picked at spot 11. I used my rankings to pick this team.

Picking From the 11-Spot

Rnd

Team 1

Team 2

Team 3

Team 4

Team 5

Team 6

1

A. Peterson

M. Turner

MJD

M. Forte

Ch. Johnson

D. Williams

2

R. White

S. Smith

T. Brady

G. Jennings

R. Wayne

C. Portis

3

P. Manning

A. Boldin

M. Colston

K. Smith

R. Brown

D. Bowe

4

K. Moreno

D. McFadden

R. Bush

V. Jackson

K. Warner

B. Edwards

5

A. Gates

T. Gonzalez

A. Bryant

P. Rivers

S. Holmes

J. Stewart

6

C. Wells

L. Coles

W. Parker

A. Gonzalez

L. White

J. Cotchery

7

D. Avery

T. Romo

K. Winslow

C. Cooley

M. Crabtree

D. McNabb

8

D. Mason

E. Graham

K. Walter

W. McGahee

D. Hester

D. Driver

9

C. Taylor

S. Breaston

T. Ginn

C. Chambers

Steelers D

J. Carlson

10

Ravens D

M. Bush

J. Norwood

T. Hightower

M. Schaub

Giants D

11

J. Maclin

M. Clayton

K. Curtis

Vikings D

Ri. Williams

J. Charles

12

K. Orton

T. Edwards

E. Manning

P. Crayton

Ha. Nicks

E. Bennett

Rnd

Team 7

Team 8

Team 9

Team 10

Team 11

Team 12

1

S. Jackson

L. Fitzgerald

F. Gore

B. Westbrook

A. Johnson

LT

2

B. Jacobs

M. Barber

D. Brees

R. Moss

Ca. Johnson

S. Slaton

3

B. Marshall

R. Grant

M. Lynch

T. Owens

C. Ochocinco

T.J. Housh

4

J. Witten

T. Jones

R. Williams

P. Thomas

A. Rodgers

W. Welker

5

D. Jackson

E. Royal

J. Addai

L. Johnson

D. Clark

S. Holmes

6

H. Ward

B. Berrian

L. Moore

S. Moss

C. Benson

D. Ward

7

J. Lewis

F. Jones

D. Brown

L. McCoy

J. Jones

D. Sproles

8

J. Cutler

K. Walter

T. Holt

O. Daniels

R. Mendenhall

G. Olsen

9

P, Harvin

L. Washington

F. Jackson

D. McNabb

R. Rice

C. Palmer

10

A. Bradshaw

J. Gage

D. Keller

D. Hixon

F. Taylor

D. Branch

11

Eagles D

D. Garrard

M. Muham.

Titans D

L. Maroney

B. Roeth

12

M. Hasselbeck

T. Scheffler

Z. Miller

S. Greene

M. Walker

S. Smith NYG

Based on the composite
ADP, I had a pretty easy time getting the backs although only three teams
employed the typical, RB-RB approach in the first two rounds. Even with a lot
of quarterbacks and receivers going off the board early, I was able to acquire
strong starters at WR, QB, and TE and get six of the 10 backs on my list in
the range I desired. Even if Mendenhall, Rice, and/or Taylor don't become starters,
I have at least two starters in Benson and Jones, and potentially (though a
long shot) a third in Maroney. However, if I'm right about Mendenhall or Rice
becoming the clear-cut starter on teams that like to run and play tough defense,
I could have an elite RB paired with what I think are three top-12 receivers
and be tough to beat.

The downside is with all the teams picking quarterbacks earlier, I missed out
on Manning, Brees, and Brady. However, it didn't ruin my strategy, because I
have high expectations for Aaron Rodgers. If you don't like Rodgers enough to
pick him that early, you could have easily taken Jason Witten, Antonio Gates,
or Tony Gonzalez in round four and follow up with Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb,
or Jay Cutler in Round 5. Another variation of this strategy is to wait on a
QB and target value picks like Palmer, Hasselbeck, Garrard, and Edwards. Then
select a top rookie like Knowshon Moreno or pick a TE a round earlier with the
hope an RB like Larry Johnson comes back to you. This modification might suit
owners who just can't stomach the risk of going solely with the RB options from
Round 6 through Round 10.

Numero Uno

Rnd

Team 1

Team 2

Team 3

Team 4

Team 5

Team 6

1

A. Peterson

M. Turner

MJD

M. Forte

Ch. Johnson

D. Williams

2

R. White

S. Smith

T. Brady

A. Johnson

R. Wayne

A. Johnson

3

A. Boldin

P. Manning

M. Colston

K. Smith

R. Brown

R. Grant

4

A Bryant

K. Moreno

R. Bush

C. Ochocinco

V. Jackson

K. Warner

5

A. Gates

T. Gonzalez

S. Holmes

T. Romo

D. Jackson

J. Stewart

6

D. McNabb

T. Holt

L. Coles

A. Gonzalez

L. White

J. Cotchery

7

C. Benson

D. McFadden

K. Winslow

C. Cooley

M. Crabtree

D. Driver

8

R. Mendenhall

T. Ginn

J. Jones

W. McGahee

D. Sproles

D. Avery

9

R. Rice

C. Chambers

P. Harvin

Steelers D

J. Carlson

S.Breaston

10

F. Taylor

M. Bush

J. Norwood

M. Clayton

B. Roeth

T. Scheffler

11

Vikings D

Eagles D

K. Curtis

J. Charles

RI Williams

Titans D

12

M. Walker

K. Orton

Chargers D

N. Burleson

Pats D

E. Manning

Rnd

Team 7

Team 8

Team 9

Team 10

Team 11

Team 12

1

S. Jackson

L. Fitzgerald

F. Gore

B. Westbrook

LT

S. Slaton

2

C. Portis

B. Jacobs

M. Barber

D. Brees

R. Moss

Ca. Johnson

3

D. Bowe

B. Marshall

T. Owens

T.J. Housh

A. Rodgers

W. Welker

4

P. Rivers

P. Thomas

B. Edwards

J. Witten

M. Lynch

R. Williams

5

E. Royal

S. Moss

L. Moore

L. Johnson

J. Addai

D. Ward

6

D. Clark

C. Wells

F. Jones

H. Ward

B. Berrian

L. Evans

7

J. Lewis

J. Cutler

G. Olsen

L. McCoy

K. Walter

W. Parker

8

D. Hester

O. Daniels

C. Palmer

D. Mason

D. Brown

M. Ryan

9

D. Branch

L. Washington

D. Hixon

J. Gage

F. Jackson

D.Keller

10

J. Maclin

T. Hightower

Ravens D

A. Bradshaw

Z. Miller

Giants D

11

S. Greene

D. Garrard

S. Smith NYG

Jets D

L. Maroney

E. Bennett

12

Bears D

T. Scheffler

M. Muhammad

P. Crayton

H. Nicks

S. Morris

When you have one of the first three slots in the draft, I personally wouldn't
take the high-risk approach. I think it's difficult to justify not taking the
top player off the board. In my rankings I have MJD atop the heap, but I'm using
Peterson here because most people rate him as the No. 1 overall pick. Notice
that the receivers are good, but I think only Boldin and White have what it
takes to be top-12 players and I don't think they stand out among the competitions'
depth charts enough to have a great advantage. However, the team still has the
appearance of a contender and if one of the backs drafted between 8-10 performs
at least like a No. 2 RB it could be a favorite. I might also consider another
WR over McNabb and wait for Garrard or Edwards as my QB when I got to Round
11.

Using the Sleeper RB Strategy in the middle (Picks 4-8)

Rnd

Team 1

Team 2

Team 3

Team 4

Team 5

Team 6

1

A. Peterson

M. Turner

MJD

M. Forte

Ch. Johnson

D. Williams

2

R. White

S. Smith

T. Brady

R. Wayne

G. Jennings

D. Brees

3

P. Manning

A. Boldin

M. Colston

D. Bowe

K. Smith

R. Brown

4

T. Jones

M. Lynch

R. Bush

K. Moreno

T. Gonzalez

V. Jackson

5

A. Bryant

D. McFadden

Ochocinco

P. Thomas

D. Jackson

J. Stewart

6

M. Ryan

L. Coles

H. Ward

B. Berrian

L. White

L. Evans

7

K. Winslow

J. Cutler

C. Cooley

M. Schaub

J. Cotchery

D. Driver

8

R. Rice

M. Crabtree

J. Jones

W. McGahee

M. Cassell

B. Roeth.

9

P. Harvin

T. Ginn

Steelers D

O. Daniels

J. Carlson

C. Chambers

10

C. Taylor

M. Bush

J. Norwood

M. Clayton

M. Crabtree

J. Shockey

11

Vikings D

F. Jackson

K. Curtis

J. Charles

S. Smith NYG

Eagles D

12

S. Greene

J. Morgan

M. Walker

T. Edwards

K. Orton

N. Burleson

Rnd

Team 7

Team 8

Team 9

Team 10

Team 11

Team 12

1

L. Fitzgerald

S. Jackson

F. Gore

Westbrook

LT

S. Slaton

2

R. Moss

Ca. Johnson

C. Portis

B. Jacobs

M. Barber

A. Johnson

3

T. Owens

B. Marshall

W. Welker

T.J. Housh

A. Rodgers

R. Grant

4

K. Warner

P. Rivers

A. Gates

J. Witten

B. Edwards

R. Williams

5

L. Johnson

S. Holmes

L. Moore

T. Romo

J. Addai

D. Ward

6

C. Benson

C. Wells

D. McNabb

S. Moss

D. Clark

E. Royal

7

D. Brown

G. Olsen

T. Holt

L. McCoy

K. Walter

W. Parker

8

Mendenhall

D. Avery

J. Lewis

D. Mason

F. Jones

C. Palmer

9

F. Taylor

L. Washington

S. Breaston

J. Gage

Giants D

D.Keller

10

T. Scheffler

D. Hixon

J. Maclin

A. Bradshaw

Z. Miller

Ravens D

11

E. Bennett

Titans D

L. Maroney

D. Garrard

H. Nicks

S. Morris

12

Bears D

E. Manning

Pats D

Jets D

E. Manning

M. Muhammad

Picking from the middle gives you a lot of directions to take. I could have
gone with Drew Brees in round two, but I saw it was pretty easy to land three
receivers with elite potential and still get Kurt Warner. The best tight ends
were off the board in this draft, so I decided to start early with my block
of mid-round backs instead. I feel confident I landed at least two starting
quality runners during the first half of the season and potentially two others
(Brown and Mendenhall) who could be excellent down the stretch. If the sleepers
were correctly pinpointed, this could be a dominant line up.

Note: Obviously, ADPs will change as the preseason gets underway and new runners
will become more viable high-risk options to use with this strategy. Next week,
I'll profile more unusual draft strategies that try to get you around some of
the fate-based outcomes with more conventional approaches.