April - June 2017 NewsletterIssueXVII From the Quarter Deck D ear Friends and Colleagues, 2017 certainly started with a bang and the first three months has seen the unexpected happen. The US stock market is scaling new heights, the US Federal Reserve is gently easing the “Quantitative Easing” with a small increase in interest rates by raising the rates slightly. Simultaneously the Fed is assuring all that its role will be supportive. On the shipping front, with the collapse of Hanjin and the consolidation that has happened, container freights have gone up and the space slot availability have become tight. On the other hand, despite the economic challenges for container shipping, the race for bragging rights for the largest container ship continues. In March MOL announced the launching of its largest container ship with a capacity of 20,170 TEUs which was followed by an announcement by Maersk of the delivery of their largest ship in April with a capacity of 20,568 TEUs. Not to be outdone, OOCL has announced the launching of their ship in November 2017 with a capacity of 21,000 TEUs. In India we have seen a month on month growth in export boxes. Continuing with our India picture the roll out of GST is about to happen. It is most likely expected to happen by July 17 but certainly not later than October 2017. One major area of stress remains the issue of “Non-Performing Assets” across most of the emerging economies as well as developed economies especially in Asia. We have been seeing this problem in India closely and it can be seen that the Government of India is beginning to start taking steps to grapple with this problem. Various major banks have realistically started “provisioning” for such NPAs and also have begun to convert such debts into equity and taking over such assets and companies. Eventually when such a clean-up does happen we will likely see a far more healthy environment and frankly a level playing field for companies such as ourselves which are well managed, focused, honest and committed. On the Indian political front at the half way mark of the Modi Government massive electoral victories for BJP in 4 out of the 5 states of UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Punjab is very likely to give an additional momentum to various regulatory reforms. The stock market have clearly spoken strongly in favor of the electoral results by climbing new heights. Similarly the Indian Rupee has strengthened in value against the US dollar and other hard currencies. The exports from India have also witnessed a strong growth. During the recent visit of the Hon. Prime Minister of Bangladesh to India, there were many bilateral Indo-Bangladesh agreements which were signed by the two countries. It was decided to enhance the movement of trade and services by increasing the rail and road connectivity between the two nations. This trade pact will also benefit the north eastern Indian states by increased network of road and inland waterways through Bangladesh connecting the rest of India. We expect an increase in the cargo volumes between the two countries in the near future. With the growing relations and improved trade, the Indian government is also increasing the movement of goods to the North East India through the inland waterways system connecting the Inland Waterway I (the Ganga River) with Inland Waterway II (the Brahmaputra River) by inter-connecting through the river system of Bangladesh. After the good monsoon last season, agriculture production has been very good and the granaries are full. Prices of commodities of daily consumption have come down and the consumers are left with a bit of disposable income for purchase of white goods which were shelved in the recent past. The automotive industry is seeing signs of revival and with the Indian government encouraging coastal shipping, we are witnessing a shift, though gradual, to the transportation of vehicles by coastal car carriers from the traditional Road and Rail medium. The resurgence in sales came in January 2017 when the sales of cars totaled 265,320 signaling a year on year growth of 14.4 percent. From the market reports it is gathered that the February sales are heading in the same direction. The various Container Terminals operated by ICTIPL of the J M BAXI GROUP of companies have been active in the first quarter of 2017. The rise in container activity was largely due to the increase in Exports from India. VCTPL in Vizag handled 88,597 Teus during the first quarter of 2017. Simlarly DICT at Sonepat handled 17,150 Teus, HICT at Haldia handled 46,723 Teus and KICT at Kandla which has just commenced container operations with 4,256 teus during this period. Tourism in and out of India has seen a steady rise over the years with cruise tourism charting a promising growth. With the increased cruise tonnage worldwide and new buildings being introduced into the market at regular intervals, the cruise lines are looking at new destinations to base their ships. The Indian government has realized the latent potential of cruising in India and is taking positive steps to develop this sector. They have appointed an International Cruise consulting firm and the report from them is expected in May 2017. JMB is in the forefront of this initiative and has been represented on the committees set up by the Indian Government and has also held prolonged discussions with the International Cruise Consultants. With the new financial year starting from April we are keenly watching whether the GDP growth rate will be maintained at over 7 percent. This of course will be largely dependent upon a good monsoon. The weather pundits however are predicting an El Nino during the second half of 2017, so, let us hope the Indian Monsoon from June onwards manages to avoid its effect Krishna B. Kotak Chairman - J M BAXI GROUP 3