Newsline - February 10, 1998

President
Boris Yeltsin and Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi on 10 February
signed a "plan of action" for Russian-Italian cooperation, an RFE/RL
correspondent in Rome reported. The plan calls for bilateral cooperation
over the next 10-15 years in various spheres, including aviation, space travel,
telecommunications, and conversion of the defense industry, Interfax
reported on 9 February. Several agreements between Russian and Italian
companies are to be signed during Yeltsin's visit to Rome, his first foreign
trip since he was hospitalized for two weeks in December. Italy is Russia's
second-largest European trading partner, after Germany. Shortly after
arriving in Rome on 9 February, Yeltsin met with Italian President Oscar
Scalfaro. Few details about their talks have been released. LB

RUSSIAN DEPUTIES AWAIT UN APPROVAL OF IRAQI VISIT...

The plane bound for Baghdad with State Duma deputies and humanitarian
aid aboard remains on the runway at Yerevan airport, Armenia. Russian
representatives at the UN sought on 9 February to obtain official permission
from the UN Sanctions Committee to fly to Iraq. But representatives from
the U.S. and the U.K. have asked for a list of the plane's 207 passengers and
requested that UN officials be allowed to inspect the humanitarian cargo. In
Moscow, Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov accused the deputies in
Yerevan of "theatrics" by departing Moscow before UN permission had been
obtained. On 10 February, the Duma voted to reduce to 30 the number of
people flying to Baghdad in order to facilitate UN official permission. BP

..WHILE REQUIRED LIST IS DRAWN UP

State Duma Speaker
Gennadii Seleznev said on 9 February that the list of passengers required by
the UN is being prepared. Seleznev said there is nothing unusual in the
request as "when 207 people appeared, naturally questions were asked." The
speaker also said it would be difficult to file a protest with the UN if the
plane is not allowed to land in Baghdad "because Russia also participates in
the sanctions." Meanwhile on the ground in Yerevan, Liberal Democratic
Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky said permission has been
granted "in New York, Moscow, and Tehran" for the flight to continue but
that air-traffic controllers in Yerevan have not yet been informed of this. BP

YELTSIN PREMATURELY ANNOUNCES ANNAN VISIT TO IRAQ

President Yeltsin said on 9 February that UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
will soon travel to Iraq, Interfax reported. But in New York, Annan said that
while he does not rule out making such a trip, he has no such immediate
plans. Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov, accompanying Yeltsin on the
trip to Italy, met with his counterpart, Lamberto Dini, to discuss the Iraqi
crisis. While Dini said his country is concerned and would welcome a
peaceful settlement, he also made it clear that Iraq must comply with UN
resolutions. Diplomatic pressure toward that end is justified, he argued. BP

RUSSIAN MILITARY SPECIALIST ON IRAQI CRISIS

An interview
in the 10 February issue of the official government newspaper "Rossiiskaya
gazeta" offers an alternative view of the U.S.'s motives for a possible attack
on Iraq. Lieutenant.-General Leonid Gulev, described as one of Russia's
"leading military specialists on the U.S.," says Washington is ready to
replace military testing sites in the state of Nevada with new "firing ranges"
in Iraq. Gulev said it is better for the U.S. to test the effectiveness of
weapons on targets in Iraq because the "firing ranges" in that country are
"inhabited by people." He added that the U.S. needs to test its smart bombs
and stealth aircraft. According to Gulev, there are "significantly more"
ground troops, planes, and naval vessels in the area than was the case during
the 1991 UN operation against Iraq. BP

GENERAL STAFF HEAD SAYS MILITARY NEEDS MORE
FUNDING

First Deputy Defense Minister Anatolii Kvashnin said in Duma
hearings on 9 February that the armed forces need a budget of 400 billion
rubles ($67 billion), Russian news agencies reported. The draft 1998 budget,
which the Duma recently approved in the third reading, foresees 81.76
billion rubles in expenditures for "national defense." The Duma also voted to
allocate 1 percent of budget spending toward military reform (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 5 February 1998). Kvashnin noted that defense spending in the
U.S. this year is projected at some $250 billion. According to "Izvestiya" on
10 February, experts in the Fuel and Energy Ministry have calculated that
this year, the Defense Ministry will receive only 20 percent of the funds
needed to pay for heating and electricity supplies to military installations.
LB

KULIKOV OPPOSES PLANS TO ABOLISH DRAFT...

Interior
Minister Anatolii Kulikov has sharply criticized the military reform plans
endorsed by Yeltsin and Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, "Nezavisimaya
gazeta" and "Kommersant-Daily" reported on 10 February. Speaking to a
meeting at the Academy of Military Sciences on 7 February, Kulikov spoke
out against transforming the army into an all-volunteer force. Instead, he
argued, the army should be 70 percent staffed with contract soldiers and 30
percent with draftees. Yeltsin pledged in 1996 to create an all-volunteer
army by 2000, and top military officials have not backed away from that
goal (although they have conceded that it will not be achieved by 2000).
Kulikov also called for raising the draft age to 19 and conducting the draft
year-round in response to the declining quality of conscripts (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 21 January 1998).

...DISAGREES WITH PRIORITIES OF MILITARY DOCTRINE

During his 7 February speech, Kulikov also criticized the idea that the
Russian military should focus on preparing to fight small localized conflicts,
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 10 February. He argued that "we are
obliged to prepare the army and the state to conduct a prolonged war." Last
May, Yeltsin said that Russia's military doctrine should focus on potential
localized wars, not global conflicts, as the main military threat to the
country. That concept was incorporated into a new military doctrine (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 25 August 1997). LB

CHUBAIS'S LAWSUIT AGAINST JOURNALIST DELAYED

A
Moscow municipal court on 9 February delayed proceedings in First Deputy
Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais's libel lawsuit against the journalist
Aleksandr Minkin and the Ekho Moskvy radio station, Russian news
agencies reported. Neither Chubais nor his attorney, Mikhail Barshchevskii,
turned up in court. In an interview with Ekho Moskvy last November,
Minkin first raised the allegations that Chubais and several other officials
each accepted a $90,000 honorarium from a book publisher linked to
Oneksimbank. In the aftermath of that scandal, Chubais lost the post of
finance minister and several of his associates were fired. Chubais is seeking
250 million old rubles ($42,000) in damages from Minkin for claiming that
the book payments were bribes (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 November
1997). Chubais also wants Ekho Moskvy to retract the allegation. LB

SUSPECT ARRESTED IN KHOLODOV MURDER

The Prosecutor-
General's Office on 10 February confirmed reports that a suspect was
recently arrested in connection with the October 1994 murder of journalist
Dmitrii Kholodov, ITAR-TASS reported. Kholodov, an reporter for
"Moskovskii komsomolets" who was investigating military corruption, was
killed when he opened a booby-trapped briefcase. Law enforcement officials
have repeatedly claimed to be on the verge of solving the case (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 20 October 1997). The arrested suspect, a retired colonel, has not
officially been named, but Interfax on 9 February quoted unnamed sources
identifying him as Yakov Popovskikh, who formerly served in military
intelligence. LB

DEPUTY PROPOSES COMPROMISE ON ELECTORAL LAW

Duma
deputy Sergei Yushenkov has proposed a compromise over the electoral
law, RFE/RL's Moscow bureau reported on 9 February. Yushenkov, a
member of the Russia's Democratic Choice party of Yegor Gaidar, favors
electing half the Duma in single-member districts and half using
proportional representation, as under the current system. But he has called
for the seats allocated proportionally to be distributed among all groups that
gain more than 5 percent of the vote or win more than 10 single-member
districts. (Currently, those seats are divided only among groups that win
more than 5 percent of the vote.) Yushenkov has also called for tightening
the registration rules to make it more difficult for tiny groups to compete.
Forty-three electoral blocs were registered for the December 1995 Duma
elections, and 26 of them gained less than 1 percent of the vote. LB

IS KREMLIN READY FOR COMPROMISE?

No Kremlin official has
commented on Yushenkov's proposal, but there are signs that Yeltsin may
not insist that the 1999 elections to the Duma be carried out only in single-
member districts. Although some officials have suggested holding a
referendum on changing the law (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 January
1998), Mikhail Komissar, the deputy head of the presidential administration,
recently argued that it might be better to improve the proportional
representation system than do away with it. In an interview with "Russkii
telegraf" on 7 February, Komissar said more criminals would win seats in
the parliament if the entire Duma were elected in single-member districts. In
addition, he argued that separatism would increase if the Duma consisted
mostly of deputies who would lobby for narrow regional interests. LB

RUSSIA TO STUDY CHECHEN BORDER ARRANGEMENTS

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ruslan Abdulatipov told ITAR-TASS on 9
February that the first meeting of the Russian Security Council interagency
commission on Chechnya, scheduled for 11 February, will focus on
guaranteeing security along the Chechen-Russian border. Abdulatipov also
commented that the two sides are beginning "real work" to overcome the
tragedy of the war, but he added that there are powerful forces in both
Russia and Chechnya opposed to any peace agreement. Those forces, he
said, continue to profit from the impasse. PG

CHECHENS DEFINE NEGOTIATING APPROACH

President Aslan
Maskhadov on 9 February said that all Chechen negotiating contacts with
Moscow must be coordinated by the State Negotiating Commission, ITAR-
TASS reported. That commission is headed by Foreign Minister Movladi
Udugov, who said he expects Russia and Chechnya to sign an accord by the
end of this year, according to Interfax. PG

RUSSKOE RADIO DENIED BROADCAST LICENSE IN
BELGOROD

The Moscow-based private radio station Russkoe Radio,
which broadcasts to more than 200 Russian cities, has been unable to
broadcast in Belgorod for nearly two months, an RFE/RL correspondent in
that city reported on 9 February. The Belgorod Oblast Commission on
Television and Radio Broadcasting has denied the station a license, citing
"the special mentality of residents of the oblast." The commission charged
that Russkoe Radio programs "contradict the moral and ethical foundations
of Belgorod residents" and harm the young generation. Supporters of
Russkoe Radio, which broadcasts exclusively Russian music and mainly
cultural news, have collected more than 3,000 signatures demanding that the
station be granted a license to broadcast in Belgorod. They argue that the
station is entitled to a license under the federal law on the mass media and
the constitutional guarantee of free distribution of information. LB

ST. PETERSBURG RESIDENTS INDIFFERENT TO LOCAL
ELECTIONS

Elections to local government bodies in St. Petersburg on 8
February were declared valid in all districts despite an average citywide
turnout of just 16.4 percent, ITAR-TASS reported on 9 February. In the first
attempt to elect local councils in the city's 111 districts last September,
turnout reached the required 25 percent in just 32 districts (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 30 September 1997). The St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly
subsequently abolished the mandatory turnout requirement so as not to waste
funds on holding new local elections. LB

LEGISLATURE IGNORES GOVERNOR'S OBJECTIONS ON CITY
CHARTER

The St. Petersburg legislature recently defied the city's
governor, Vladimir Yakovlev, when deputies adopted a new city charter and
refused to adopt amendments to that charter supported by Yakovlev,
"Kommersant-Daily" reported on 30 January. The charter gives the St.
Petersburg Legislative Assembly the power to confirm some of the
governor's cabinet appointments and stipulates that the assembly will be a
full-time legislature following elections to be held later this year. It also
limits the governor's power to issue directives and retains a two-round
system for gubernatorial elections. (Past elections in Russian regions show
that incumbent governors tend to do better when elections are held in one
round.) According to the 5 February edition of the "IEWS Russian Regional
Report," the St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly is rare among Russian
regional legislatures in that it has significant influence. LB

FACTORY DIRECTOR WINS DUMA SEAT IN BASHKORTOSTAN

Vladimir Protopopov, the director of an automobile factory in Neftekamsk,
easily won an 8 February by-election in Bashkortostan for a seat in the State
Duma, ITAR-TASS reported on 9 February. Protopopov gained 46.7 percent
of the vote in a field of nine candidates. His closest rival, Communist-backed
candidate Firgat Khabibullin, won just 23.9 percent. Proptopopov takes up
the seat vacated following the death of Alzam Saifullin, who was elected to
the Duma in 1995 as an Agrarian Party candidate. ITAR-TASS reported on
8 February that some local observers consider the by-election a "rehearsal"
for the presidential election to be held later this year in Bashkortostan.
Current President Murtaza Rakhimov has said he will not seek re-election.
LB

GEORGIAN PRESIDENT ESCAPES ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT

Eduard Shevardnadze escaped unharmed from an assassination attempt
against him while he was returning to his residence on 9 February. Two
presidential guards and one attacker were killed during the attack, ITAR-
TASS reported the next day. Shevardnadze, who survived an assassination
attempt in August 1995, told journalists that "international terrorism" was
behind this latest bid on his life. He speculated that one possible motive is
the desire of "very powerful forces" to prevent Caspian basin oil from
transiting Georgia. The attack came shortly after Shevardnadze had said in
his weekly radio address that "there is no alternative to peace and stability in
the southern Caucasus." PG

GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT DEMANDS BLOCKADE OF RUSSIAN
BASES

In the wake of the assassination attempt on President
Shevardnadze, the Georgian parliament called for a blockade of Russian
military bases in the country, Georgian media reported. Deputies suggested
that the possibility could not be excluded that those who launched the attack
on Shevardnadze were dispatched to Georgia from Russia. Meanwhile,
Shevardnadze went on national television to appeal for calm, and Georgian
security agencies have sealed the border, according to Georgian media. PG

ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS NO NEW DANGER OF
HOSTILITIES

In a statement released on 10 February, the Armenian
Foreign Ministry has denounced suggestions that new hostilities with
Azerbaijan are imminent and stressed Yerevan is committed to observing the
May 1994 truce, ITAR-TASS reported. The statement said that predictions
of new hostilities are a "deliberately distorted interpretation" of events in
Armenia since the resignation of President Levon Ter-Petrossyan. PG

KOCHARIAN TO RUN FOR ARMENIAN PRESIDENCY

Prime
Minister and acting President Robert Kocharian said on 9 February that he
will run in the 16 March presidential elections, ITAR-TASS reported. A
native of Nagorno-Karabakh, Kocharian would seem to face one major
obstacle: the Armenian Constitution stipulates that the president must be an
Armenian citizen. Meanwhile, Khosrov Arutyunyan, the speaker of the
Armenian parliament, said that the recent political changes in Yerevan will
not affect Armenia's close relationship with Moscow. PG

EXXON AZERBAIJAN, SOCAR SIGN GAS EXPLORATION DEAL

Exxon Azerbaijan, a subsidiary of the U.S. petroleum company, and
SOCAR, the state oil company of Azerbaijan, signed an agreement 9
February to explore the gas resources on Azerbaijani territory, Interfax
reported. The research study is scheduled to last for one year. PG

EIGHT PEOPLE KILLED IN WESTERN TAJIKISTAN

At least eight
people were killed in the western city of Tursun Zade on 9 February. A
group of armed men broke into the house of a Tajik businesswoman, killing
her and her two sons. The gunmen then opened fire on a group of people
waiting at a nearby bus stop; at least five were killed in that attack. An
investigation is under way. During the five-year civil war in Tajikistan,
Tursun Zade was often controlled by outlaw groups and was the scene of
shoot-outs between rival gangs competing for possession of the aluminum
factory there. That facility is Tajikistan's biggest money-making enterprise.
BP

KAZAKH OFFICIALS MEET WITH DEMONSTRATORS

Local
officials in the southern city of Kentau met with demonstrators outside
government offices on 9 February, AFP reported. The demonstrators, mostly
mothers and their children, are protesting poor living conditions and unpaid
wages and child support. The officials promised that overdue wages will be
paid, but demonstrators remained skeptical about that promise and vowed to
continue their protest. The same day, some 150 health-care workers who
have not been paid in 10 months joined the demonstrators. BP

U.S. PRESSURES UKRAINE OVER TURBINE SALE TO IRAN

The
U.S. State Department said it has made clear its "strong desire" that Ukraine
not provide turbines for an Iranian nuclear station, an RFE/RL correspondent
in Washington reported on 9 February. Russia, despite Washington's
objections, is helping Iran build a nuclear power station in the central city of
Bushehr. The turbines needed to power the station are slated to be purchased
from Ukraine. State Department spokesman James Foley said the U.S.
would like to continue its many cooperative efforts with Kyiv. He said the
U.S. could compensate Ukraine for losses it might sustain for scrapping the
deal, and said that it was not threatening Ukraine with a loss of aid should it
complete the deal. Ukraine received $225 million in aid from the U.S. last
year. PB

BELARUS DENIES HAVING WEAPONS-GRADE URANIUM

A
Belarusian official says his country has no weapons-grade uranium or
plutonium, thereby contradicting a Belarusian Television report the previous
day, ITAR-TASS reported on 10 February. Alyaksandr Mikhalevich, the
director of the Institute of Energy Problems at the Belarus Academy of
Sciences, said the country has 15 grams of plutonium and 500 kilograms of
enriched uranium for scientific purposes but that they are not weapons-
grade. Belarusian Television reported on 8 February that Minsk has two tons
of weapons-grade material, which would make Belarus a "nuclear-threshold"
state, like India, Pakistan, and Israel. PB

LATVIA'S RUSSIAN-LANGUAGE PRESS PROTESTS LABOR
CODE CHANGES

Three Russian-language newspapers in Latvia have
strongly criticized an amendment to the labor code whereby an employee
can be fired for insufficient knowledge of the Latvian language (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 9 February 1998), BNS and Interfax reported. "Biznes
& Baltija," "SM," and "Panorama Latvii" urged President Guntis Ulmanis to
veto the amendment. Ulmanis, for his part, told "SM" that he will carefully
examine the legislation, but at the same time, he describe the reaction of the
Russian-language press as "excessively dramatic." Under the Latvian
Constitution, the president can return a bill to the parliament within seven
days of its adoption. If lawmakers decide not to alter the returned bill, the
president has no further recourse. JC

U.S. APPLAUDS VILNIUS DECISION TO PROSECUTE LILEIKIS

U.S. Attorney-General Janet Reno on 9 February welcomed what she called
the Lithuania prosecutor-general's "landmark" decision to bring charges
against alleged war criminal Aleksandras Lileikis (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
5 February 1998). "It is vital that the nations of the world leave no stone
unturned in pursuing justice on behalf of the millions of victims of Nazi
genocide," she commented. Lileikis, who was head of the Vilnius security
police during World War Two and is alleged to have ordered the deaths of
scores of Jews, was stripped of his U.S. citizenship in 1996 following
charges brought by the Justice Department's Office of Special Investigations.
Also on 9 February, the Lithuanian Prosecutor-General's Office announced it
has submitted genocide charges against Lileikis to the Vilnius Regional
Court. JC

LITHUANIA'S PAULAUSKAS TO SET UP POLITICAL PARTY

Former presidential candidate Arturas Paulauskas has announced his
decision to set up a center-left political party. Paulauskas told Interfax on 9
February that a working group has been instructed to draft the statutes of
both a public movement and a party. He added that the documents drafted
for a founding conference, scheduled to take place in mid-March, will be
based on his election program. In the second round of the presidential
elections early last month, President-elect Valdas Adamkus beat Paulauskas
by a margin of less than one percentage point. JC

POLISH TRADERS PROTEST TIGHTER VISA REGULATIONS

Thousands of small business owners in Poland used cars to block a highway
leading to Belarus in protest at Warsaw's tighter visa restrictions on
foreigners, Reuters reported on 9 February. Protesters near Bialystok say
regulations imposed at the beginning of the year have reduced both the
supply of goods at outdoor markets and the number of customers from
Belarus. The EU has pressured Poland to increase security on its eastern
borders, a move that has angered Belarus and Russia. PB

CZECH OPPOSITION PARTY INVOLVED IN FINANCIAL
SCANDAL

Following the financial scandals involving the Civic
Democratic Party and the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), the Czech
Social Democratic Party (CSSD) is reported to have received some 10
million crowns (about $292,000) from the Communist Party in 1990,
"Respekt" said on 9 February. The weekly also noted large discrepancies
between the financial report submitted by the CSSD leadership to the party's
national conference in March 1996 and a report presented to the Chamber of
Deputies two weeks later. Miroslav Grebenicek, the chairman of the
Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia, confirmed the 1990 payment.
ODA Chairman Jiri Skalicky, meanwhile, said that if party colleagues were
to put pressure on him to reveal the names of the 1995 donors, he would
rather resign than do so, CTK reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 February
1998). MS

HUNGARIAN PREMIER DENIES ACCUSATIONS OVER DAM
DECISION

In a 9 February interview with Hungarian Television, Gyula
Horn denied accusations that the government is willing to make "obstinate
and hasty decisions" over the Nagymaros-Gabcikovo Danube hydropower
project. Horn said that working out a solution will take four years and that
another fours years will be needed to carry out the project in line with the
International Court of Justice's ruling. He also denied that the project would
cost 600 billion forints ($3 billion), arguing that half of that sum would
suffice. Meanwhile, Hungarian media reported that Hungarian and Slovak
negotiators, meeting in Budapest on 9 February, failed to reach an agreement
on the mutual waiving of compensation claims. MSZ

CENTRAL EUROPEAN FOREIGN MINISTERS ON IRAQI CRISIS

Hungarian Foreign Minister Laszlo Kovacs told journalists in Washington
on 9 February that Hungary advocates a political solution to the Iraqi crisis
but is prepared to support "the international coalition with all available
means," as, he stressed, it did before and during the Gulf War. He
confirmed that U.S. requests for Hungarian support in logistics,
transportation, and overflight permission have been received from
Washington, Hungarian media reported. Czech Foreign Minister Jaroslav
Sedivy said the Czech government will discuss "appropriate support" for a
U.S. strike against Iraq but added that no action has so far been decided,
CTK reported. Kovacs, Sedivy, and Polish Foreign Minister Bronislaw
Geremek briefed U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on their
countries' preparations for joining NATO. They are in Washington to lobby
for ratification by the U.S. Senate of their countries' membership in the
alliance. MS

MACEDONIAN ALBANIANS WANT DIALOGUE ON KOSOVO

The
leaders of the two largest ethnic Albanian political parties in Macedonia--the
Party for Democratic Prosperity and the Party of Democratic Prosperity of
the Albanians--have appealed to the international community to start a
dialogue between Belgrade and the Kosovar leadership, BETA news agency
reported on 9 February. The party leaders warned that Kosovo could be
sliding toward war and that any conflict there would affect the stability of
Macedonia. Last month, President Kiro Gligorov said that Macedonia will
create a corridor through its territory in the event of war in Kosovo to enable
ethnic Albanian refugees to flee from there to Albania (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 22 January 1998). PM

NO MOBILIZATION FOR KOSOVO?

Nenad Canak, the president of the
opposition League of Vojvodina Social Democrats, said in Novi Sad on 9
February that army officers have denied his recent accusations that young
reservists in Vojvodina are being called up and sent to Kosovo (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 4 February 1998). Canak says the officers told him that
the army does not have the money to finance a mobilization, the Belgrade
daily "Danas" reported. But the newspaper added that "citizens [nonetheless]
maintain that they have received call-up orders." PM

DODIK INVITES HAGUE COURT TO BANJA LUKA

Bosnian Serb
Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said in Vienna on 9 February that his
government will allow the Hague-based war crimes tribunal to open an
office in Banja Luka. But Dodik noted that Bosnian Serb law prevents the
extradition of war criminals and that the disputed town of Brcko must be
assigned to the Serbs or else his government will fall. He also stressed that
"we are for the return of all refugees to Brcko. We want to turn Brcko into a
demilitarized free-trade zone.... Our government is the only government that
could implement such a thing." The prime minister argued that his cabinet
has done more to implement the Dayton agreement than its predecessors did
in two years. Meanwhile, his Austrian counterpart, Wolfgang Schuessel, said
that Dodik is "working behind the scenes" to persuade indicted war criminals
to go to The Hague voluntarily. PM

PLAVSIC APPEALS FOR BRCKO

Republika Srpska President Biljana
Plavsic said in Paris on 9 February that Brcko must remain under Bosnian
Serb control if the international community expects Serbian cooperation in
implementing the Dayton accords, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported.
Plavsic also said that the Republika Srpska is no longer in danger of splitting
"into an eastern and western part because the Republika Srpska now has, for
the past month and a half, its own parliament..., a single police force across
its territory, and a single set of policies." A spokeswoman for President
Jacques Chirac said that "France, at a crucial moment in the peace process,
intends to strongly encourage those who play the card of moderation and
cooperation with the international community." PM

BOSNIAN RELIGIOUS LEADERS APPEAL TO EU

The heads of
Bosnia's Islamic, Jewish, Serbian Orthodox, and Roman Catholic
communities asked European Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Hans van
den Broek in Brussels on 9 February for EU funding to reconstruct mosques,
synagogues, and churches destroyed or damaged in the 1992-1995 war. They
made no specific requests but said they will submit a plan soon. Van den
Broek told his visitors that the EU will provide them with assistance. The
four Church leaders also promised to promote religious tolerance and the
return of refugees. PM

BOSNIAN SERBS PROTEST ARREST OF ACCUSED MURDERER

Some 700 Bosnian Serbs blocked a road near the Sarajevo suburb of
Lukavica to protest the arrest of Goran Vasic by police from the mainly
Muslim and Croatian federation nearby on 6 February. Vasic is wanted in
Sarajevo for allegedly killing Bosnian Deputy Prime Minister Hakija
Turajlic on 8 January 1993. A spokesman for UN police said in Sarajevo on
9 February that the federal police used unnecessary violence in arresting
Vasic. Two days earlier, Dodik criticized the arrest on the grounds that it
would discourage other non-Muslims from returning to Sarajevo. PM

SARAJEVO WANTS TO HOST WINTER OLYMPICS AGAIN

Midhat Haracic, the governor of Sarajevo canton, told Reuters on 9 February
that Sarajevo has launched a campaign to host the 2010 Winter Olympics.
Haracic added that he is "an optimist about both the political and economic
possibilities of holding the Olympic games in Sarajevo." President of the
International Olympic Committee Juan Antonio Samaranch "strongly
supports this initiative," the governor stated. Sarajevo officials want to
regain some of the positive image their city won by hosting the 1984 games.
The officials also hope that hosting the Olympics would attract the necessary
foreign investment to rebuild the area's tourist infrastructure. PM

SLOVENIAN FOOD AID FOR BOSNIAN SERBS

Slovenian authorities
said in Ljubljana on 9 February that the Alpine republic has donated 49,562
liters of vegetable oil and 14,009 cans of beans to the Republika Srpska
under the auspices of the World Food Program. Most of the food will to go
the Banja Luka area. PM

SERBIA'S BULGARIAN MINORITY LODGES PROTEST

Representatives of the newly formed ethnic Bulgarian cultural society
Caribrod said in Dimitrovgrad on 9 February that recent criticism of
Caribrod by Serbian state-run television indicates how intolerant the Serbian
authorities are of ethnic minorities. The broadcast claimed that Caribrod is a
vehicle for disseminating greater Bulgarian nationalism, BETA news agency
reported. Caribrod officials said that the Serbian government finances or
otherwise supports Serbian cultural clubs in many countries but that it will
not allow the Bulgarians in Dimitrovgrad to enjoy the same free cultural
development that Belgrade seeks for Serbs abroad. PM

ALBANIAN HUNGER STRIKE ENDS

Daan Everts, the chief
representative of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in
Tirana, has mediated an end to a 25 day-old hunger strike by nine former
political prisoners. The men were protesting a recent amendment to the
lustration law that will enable former secret police employees and informers
to hold state jobs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 February 1998). The strikers
and government representatives accepted Everts's suggestion that foreign
and Albanian experts review and discuss the legislation. PM

ROMANIAN COALITION STILL ON SHAKY GROUND

Despite a
provision in the new government protocol stipulating that coalition partners
must refrain from criticizing one another, the National Peasant Party
Christian Democratic (PNTCD) and the Democratic Party have accused each
other of breaching that protocol. PNTCD chairman Ion Diaconescu said the
Democrats must stop declaring that the cabinet is a "transition solution." The
Democrats objected to a PNTCD Deputy Chairman Vasile Lupu's
accusation the previous day of corruption within their ranks. They also said
they had not been consulted about the nominations for the new ministers and
"did not know" whether they would support the new incumbents when the
parliament debates those nominations on 11 February. Meanwhile, the
influential Civic Alliance Movement, a member of the Democratic
Convention of Romania, said the new protocol is "undemocratic" and gives
unacceptable veto-power to the Democrats, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau
reported (see also "End Note" below). MS

ROMANIA'S DEMOCRATS CHANGE POSITION ON EDUCATION
LAW

Alexandru Sassu, the chairman of the Democratic Party faction in
the Chamber of Deputies, told Mediafax on 9 February that his party wants
the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania to "make a political
declaration" pledging it will "insist that all ethnic Hungarian children learn
Romanian." Sassu said this would contribute to "lowering the expected
tension" of the debates about to begin in the chamber on the amended
version of the 1995 education law. The Democrats are signatories to a
December 1997 protocol in which all coalition parties pledged to support
amendments that are more liberal than those passed by the Senate the same
month. Observers say the Democrats' latest shifts toward more nationalist
positions suggest they are contemplating early elections (see also "RFE/RL
Newsline," 9 February 1998). MS

ROMANIAN ECONOMY DECLINES

Data released by the National
Statistical Commission on 9 February shows inflation in 1997 was 151.7
percent, almost double the level the previous year. GDP decreased by 6.6
percent and industrial production by 5.9 percent, while investments were
down some 19 percent. Also on 9 February, members of the Sanitas trade
union federation of nurses and other medical staff staged a two-hour warning
strike to demand a 100 percent wage increase, instead of the 25 percent
approved by the government. Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea , meanwhile,
met with members of two other unions to discuss means of covering higher
living costs. Radu Colceag, the leader of the Democratic Confederation of
Syndicates, said after the meeting that his union will give the government a
grace period of two or three months to improve the economy. MS

MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT CALLS FOR ASSISTING ELDERLY

In
his weekly radio address to the nation, Petru Lucinschi on 9 February called
on the population to render every possible assistance to the elderly.
Lucinschi said that of Moldova's 750,000 pensioners, 80 percent receive
pensions totaling 60-100 lei ( $13-21) a month. He said the Pension Fund
was expected to have revenues of 3 million lei a month to pay out pensions
but that it receives less than half that amount. Lucinschi said that the
situation can be changed only after an improvement in the economy. He
called on all those able to help to do so and said it was necessary to set up
charity funds that would accept donations from both Moldova and abroad.
MS

ROMANIAN CRISIS ON HOLD

by Michael Shafir

With the 5 February signing of the new government
protocol and with the appointment the following day of five
ministers to replace Democratic Party cabinet members
withdrawn from the executive by the Democrats'
leadership, the coalition crisis in Romania appears to have
come to an end. But on closer examination, that crisis may
have simply been put on hold.

It is not easy to make sense of what caused the crisis
in the first place. The resignation of former Transportation
Minister Traian Basescu on 29 January, which was
apparently the main cause, at first seemed to have been a
deliberate provocation by the Democrats aimed at
facilitating former Foreign Minister Adrian Severin's return
to the government. Thus, the Democrats' criticism of the
cabinet's unsatisfactory performance in implementing
reform was not taken very seriously--with good reason.

But on 6 January, Severin told journalists that the
party leadership had not done enough to defend its own
ministers in the government. He pointed out that it was
"not normal" that the party with the "best members of the
cabinet" should have been forced to agree to the dismissal
of three of its ministers and should have put up no
resistance. That criticism was clearly directed at party
chairman Petre Roman, as became even more obvious on 30
January, when Severin blamed Roman for not having done
enough to ensure the continuation of the coalition. Roman
should have "sacrificed himself" and should have accepted
the status quo in coalition relations, Severin argued.

Inherent in those two statements was an obvious
contradiction: according to Severin, the party leadership
should have both defended its ministers (which, in fact, it
did when withdrawing the remaining cabinet members from
the government) and it should have swallowed its pride and
let the coalition continue. But how could it do both? While
Severin eventually had to pay the price for his attacks on
Roman (he was assigned no responsibilities when the
party's Standing Bureau redistributed the duties of its vice
chairmen last week), he had unwittingly triggered a chain
of reactions that neither he, nor Roman, had expected. That
made it difficult for observers to "put two and two
together." For example, how to explain why Roman, who
was obviously reluctant to leave the coalition and on
several occasions had made conciliatory statements to his
coalition partners, contradicted himself and adopted a
bellicose posture? The answer seems to rest in a
"democratic revolt from below," that is, among the
Democrats' lower echelons.

When the party's Standing National Council on 14
January virtually gave an ultimatum to replace Victor
Ciorbea as premier by 31 March, that decision reflected,
above all, frustration among that body's members. The
decision was all but imposed on Roman in the knowledge
that the ultimatum would be viewed by the National
Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) as an
unacceptable act of "political blackmail."

There were several reasons for the frustration among
the lower echelons of the Democratic Party. Those
Democrats were often treated with disdain by their
coalition associates at county level. All too often the
PNTCD--both at central and local government level--made
clear (and publicly so) that it intensely disliked, and hoped
soon to end, the "marriage of convenience" with the
Democrats. Also, opinion polls showed the Democrats were
losing much of their popularity. They had garnered 13
percent in the November 1996 elections but were backed
by only 8 percent some two years later, in December 1997.
The Democratic Convention's (CDR) support, on the other
hand, had grown from 30 percent to 42 percent within the
same period, although the popularity of Ciorbea's cabinet
had decreased.

In other words, the Democrats' electorate was
deserting the party and its regional leaders, who have the
largest number of seats on the National Council, believed
the desertion was of a mainly ideological nature. The
Democrats' electorate is largely middle-aged, well-
educated, and opposed to the full restitution of property,
which is backed by leading elements within the CDR.

The PNTCD's adamant rejections of the Democrats'
demands to replace Ciorbea should fool no one. When they
signed the new government protocol, the Democrats
refused to pledge they would refrain from either initiating
or backing a no confidence motion in the cabinet. The
PNTCD had to save face and keep Ciorbea as premier, but it
is highly unlikely that the cabinet will survive beyond the
end of March, when the Democrats' Standing National
Council will convene again.

Moreover, the further "belt-tightening" measures
announced by Ciorbea on 6 February may provoke social
unrest and provide the Democrats with an early
opportunity to get rid of the prime minister. Unless the
Democrats contemplate a realignment of political forces
and joining an alliance with Iliescu's party and the extreme
nationalists (an unlikely scenario), they would merely have
lost precious time for what they continue to claim to be
their main objective--the promotion of reforms.