EXPERT: CALVERT WOULD BE FORMIDABLE FOE

If Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone decides to challenge Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in 2014, the former Temecula mayor will have his hands full, a political expert says.

Stone announced last week that he is weighing a run for the congressional district Calvert captured in November. The conservative Republican supervisor indicated he would make a decision within 90 days.

Calvert wasted little time responding, criticizing Stone for setting sights on his seat even before he was sworn in Tuesday to a third term on the Board of Supervisors. Then on Wednesday, Calvert churned out a news release touting his endorsement by the other four supervisors.

Calvert has represented the region in Washington for two decades. He is beginning an 11th two-year term from a newly redrawn district that extends from Corona to Temecula’s northern edge.

Last year marked the second time Calvert managed to hold onto a seat despite shifting boundaries and voters.

“If Calvert was going to have a difficult race, it would have been in 2012 when he was running in new territory,” said Jack Pitney, a widely quoted government professor from Claremont-McKenna College in the Los Angeles area. “But in a midterm election, in a district he has already won, Calvert would be very, very formidable.”

Calvert, who is from Corona, won in November by garnering more than 60 percent of the vote.

Pitney said Calvert now has two years to boost his visibility in the realigned district through appearances and legislation.

“He will have more of an opportunity to entrench himself,” Pitney said in a telephone interview. “Unless something unusual happens, he will be extremely difficult to beat.”

The 42nd Congressional District takes in Corona, Lake Elsinore, Canyon Lake, Wildomar, Murrieta, Menifee, Perris, French Valley, Wine Country and one-fifth of Temecula.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 143,000 to 95,000 in the territory.

Stone lives just outside the district. Residing within the boundaries isn’t a requirement for Congress, as long as one lives in the same state.

Stone previously lost bids for the state Senate in 2010 and Assembly in 2000.

Calvert, on the other hand, has a long string of victories.

“He’s an extremely good campaigner,” Pitney said. “At times in the past, he has had difficult districts. He has been able to defeat strong opponents under unfavorable circumstances.”

On the other hand, Calvert has escaped with narrow victories at times, said GOP analyst Allan Hoffenblum in Los Angeles.

“He more often than not gets attacked from the right,” Hoffenblum said.

Hoffenblum said Calvert previously survived primary challenges from a tea party candidate and an anti-abortion doctor, besides narrowly defeating Democrats in general elections in 1992 and 2008.

A Stone challenge probably would follow the primary pattern, as Calvert is viewed as more moderate than the county supervisor.

In announcing his possible run, Stone made clear he would call into question Calvert’s commitment to conservative causes.

“I, for one, can no longer support tax-and-spend liberals, nor so-called Republicans who no longer look out for the best interests of their constituents,” Stone said.