A market in Mombane,
Mozambique. War threatens to come at a moment when the country has
experienced huge discoveries of coal, natural gas and petroleum that
could change the lives of a large part of the population who live in
extreme poverty. Photograph: Andy Clark/Reuters

In 2012, Mozambique appeared on the list of the 50 most peaceful countries in the world in a report published by UK organisation Global Peace Index.
One
year later and it is on the verge of a new civil war that could slow
down progress in a country already considered by the UNDP to be the third poorest in the world.
In
1975 Mozambique gained independence from Portugal and the following
year witnessed a civil war between government forces led by Frelimo and a rebel movement Renamo that lasted for 16 years. The internationally-brokered 1992 Rome Peace Accords signalled the end of civil war and since then, peace has prevailed for 21 years.
But
the peace that Mozambicans tried to preserve, and have so prided
themselves on over the years, is at risk of collapsing due to armed conflict between Renamo's ex-fighters and government troops in the Sofala province.
Although Renamo does not take responsibility for the violent attacks,
dozens have been killed, including many civilians, and hundreds of
families have been forced to leave their homes to take shelter in the
bush.
In the largest cities in the country, at the end of October
and the beginning of November, citizens from all over the country
organised marches calling for the end of hostilities and a return to stability.
But the voices of citizens appear not to have moved politicians who
have demonstrated little interest in putting an end to the
political-military crisis in the country.
With the intent of
reaching an understanding, the Frelimo government and Renamo have
completed 21 rounds of negotiations, but none have produced any real
result.
Religious institutions, civil society and the
international community have done little to nothing to help end the
political crisis in Mozambique. One of the few international figures
publicly involved in searching for a way out of armed conflict is
Swedish Ambassador to Mozambique Ulla Andrea, who confirmed on Twitter she
has been in contact with members of government to discuss a way out of
the current situation, but that few had really lent their ears.
The fear of a new war is evident. It threatens to come at a moment when the country has experienced huge discoveries of coal, natural gas and petroleum that could change the lives of a large part of the population who live in extreme poverty.
The economy has been boosted by the entry of large projects dedicated
to the exploitation of mineral resources, that have employed thousands
of Mozambicans. It also comes at a time when the first generation born
after the civil war voted for the first time, in November's municipal
elections, which were boycotted by Renamo.
Mozambique has been a success story in terms of its preservation of peace, and now it runs the risk of becoming a failed state. Absolute poverty (people
living on below $1 per day), which affects 59,6% of the population,
could get worse if nothing is done to reduce tensions.
An armed
conflict would have major implications at regional and international
levels since Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia depend extensively on
Mozambican ports. An armed conflict would also undermine all foreign
investment in Mozambique that has been significant in recent years. The
United States has invested billions of dollars in oil exploration in northern Mozambique and there has been a major foreign investment in the heavy mineral sands in Nampula Province . Mozambique could lose all it gained with real effort in recent years.
One
of the first measures needed to overcome the crisis is a serious
dialogue and a commitment by the two sides. Inclusive political
dialogue, where representatives of civil society and religious
institutions can take part, is needed.
The international community, that contributes more than 40% to Mozambique's state budget,
can exert pressure on the government to propose an urgent solution for
the conflict. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), the
African Union, the European Union, the UN and so many other
international organisations can equally play an important mediating role
in negotiations between the government and Renamo.
These
organisations cannot just sit by and watch the country that is
considered the "pearl of the Indian Ocean" to sink into a new civil war.
Mozambique is not a country isolated from the rest of the world, and
the need to consider international intervention in mediation stems from
this. A new war would have regional and continental implications,
causing a flux of refugees to neighbouring countries and forcing Africa
to shift its attention from fighting poverty and promoting economic
development to solving yet another armed conflict. The world would
witness yet another sad episode of civil war in the 21st century.
So
there is a great and urgent need for intervention not only from
national actors and institutions, but from international ones, to find a
solution to the political and military crisis that comes from dialogue
and not military action.This content is brought to you by Guardian Professional. To get more articles like this direct to your inbox, sign up free to become a member of the Global Development Professionals Network