With silicon spot prices at $100-180 per kilogram and long term silicon contracts priced at $50-$90 per kilogram in 1Q09 (first quarter 2009), this appears to signal polysilicon is =not= in oversupply. Otherwise the spot price would have crashed below the long term contract price.

During a later informal poll, a landslide of attendees voted for the silicon spot price to crash below long term silicon contract prices in 2009. My first thought was this ubiquitous consensus might be a contra indicator.

The installation number was the most controversial. Mr. Rogol claimed about 9 GW of these 12.5 GW installations had minimal exposure to the project financing issues. This includes an amazing 4 GW installed on German rooftops!

The silicon industry is or has been slow to increase overall manufacturing capabilities because of the large growth during the early 1990s that eventually when stale. The extreme growth expectations were hyped and many industry experts expected much expansion in the early 1990s. This just did not happen 18 years ago. Fortunately, we are now experience much more accepting market, social expectations of our movement to renewable technologies, and governmental support to make the switch to home solar power.