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Take Denver Broncos Season Win 'Over' 11

Death, taxes and Peyton Manning winning at least 10 games in
the regular season. Those are three certainties in life these days, health
permitting for No. 18, and Manning's Denver Broncos have a wins total off 11 on
NFL odds for the 2014 season.

Looking BackThe Broncos were 13-3 for the second straight season in
2013. It was Manning's 11th straight healthy year leading a team to
double-digit wins. Sportsbooks expect more of the same this year as the Broncos'
11-win total is the most of any AFC club. The over is a slight -120 favorite on
NFL odds.

What more can be said about Manning's '13 regular season? He
broke the NFL single-season records with 5,477 yards passing and 55 touchdowns
to win a fifth NFL MVP Award. The Broncos scored an NFL-record 606 points, a
whopping 161 more than the second-place team. They were also the first club
with four players -- Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes
Welker -- having at least 10 touchdown catches.

At this point in his career, however, Manning is judged on
postseason history and he came up short again in that regard. Manning led
Denver to home playoff wins over San Diego and New England, but the Broncos
were overwhelmed by the Seattle Seahawks' top-rated defense in the 43-8 Super
Bowl rout. Manning set a meaningless record in the game with 34 completions but
the result never seemed in doubt after the Seahawks scored a safety on Denver's
first offensive play. The loss dropped Manning to 11-12 in his playoff career
and 1-2 in the Super Bowl. The future Hall of Famer is now 38, so this season
could be his last realistic chance for a second ring.

Key Offseason MovesPlayers want to play with Manning because they know he gives
them a great shot to win a title. Thus Denver became a prime destination spot
for free agents. Denver snagged a premier pass-rusher in the Cowboys' DeMarcus
Ware, a top cover cornerback in Aqib Talib of the Patriots and an excellent
run-stopping safety in T.J. Ward of the Browns. They also added Steelers
leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos are clearly going for it now
while Manning can still play at a very high level. They did lose a few key guys
in guard Zane Beadles, Decker, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and
running back Knowshon Moreno. Also keep in mind that Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan
Clady will be back after missing all of last season. Star linebacker Von Miller
was limited to nine games, and missed the playoffs, because of suspension and
an ACL injury. He and Ware could form a destructive duo.

Denver has the second-toughest strength of schedule with an
opponents' 2013 winning percentage of .570. It has nine games against playoff
teams, and the schedule-makers certainly didn't do the Broncos many favors as
they start off with three straight games against postseason clubs. Manning
reportedly wasn't happy that the opener is against his former Colts team. The
Broncos are 7.5-point favorites at sportsbooks. The Colts handed visiting
Denver its first loss of last season, 39-33 in Week 7. Manning threw for 386
yards and three scores in his homecoming but was under siege all night. He was
sacked four times, fumbled (for a Colts safety) and threw an interception.
Andrew Luck was stellar, throwing for three scores and running for another.

You know Manning is eyeing that Week 3 Super Bowl rematch
with Seattle after that Seahawks defense bewildered him in February. Week 9 is
the 16th meeting between Manning and Brady and could be the last with both QBs
up there in age. The Broncos lost 34-31 in overtime at New England last regular
season, blowing a 24-0 halftime lead. Manning threw for a season-low 150 yards.
He threw for 400 yards in the AFC title game 26-16 win over the Pats. Brady
leads the all-time series 10-5. That game starts a three-game road trip for
Denver, its first stretch of three consecutive away games since 2010.

NFL Free Picks: Over
11 wins on NFL odds. The offense should be nearly as good, especially with
Clady around to protect Manning's blind side.
The loss of Moreno hurts, but the team is high on 2013 second-round pick
Montee Ball. The defense should be significantly better with those additions
and a healthy Miller. The Broncos can run the table and home and go at least
4-4 on the road for 12 wins.