2018 Mayo by-election

The Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie is one of four MPs who have been forced to resign from Parliament because the renunciation of their British citizenship had not been finalised by the close of nominations for the 2016 Federal election.

Date

MP

Rebekha Sharkie since the 2016 election. Elected for the Nick Xenophon Team, the party has adopted the new name Centre Alliance following the departure of Nick Xenophon from the Senate.

Profile

Mayo is based in the Adelaide Hills and also includes the Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island to the south of Adelaide. The main population centres include Bridgewater, Mount Barker, Victor Harbor and Goolwa. The electorate covers 9,315 sq.km. (AEC Map)

A redistribution of electoral boundaries is underway in South Australia, but the by-election will be conducted on the old boundaries. The new electoral boundaries will not apply until the Federal election.

History

Mayo was created in 1984 and named after Helen Mayo, founder of the Mothers and Babies Association and the first woman elected to an Australian University Council.

Mayo was held for the Liberal Party by Alexander Downer from its first contest in 1984 until his retirement in 2008. Downer succeeded Dr John Hewson as Liberal Leader in May 1994 and resigned in favour of John Howard in January 1995. Downer served as Foreign Minister through the entire eleven and a half years of the Howard government. He was appointed Australian High Commissioner in London by the Abbott government, leaving the post in early 2018.

Alexander Downer's grandfather Sir John Downer served two periods as South Australian Premier between 1885 and 1893, participated in the Constitutional Conventions that debated the Australian Constitution, and served in the first Senate between 1901 and 1903. Alexander's father Sir Alick Downer served in the House of Representatives 1949-64, was Minister for Immigration 1958-63 and served as Australian High Commissioner in London 1964-72 while Alexander Downer was in his teens.

Mayo had been held by the Liberal Party until lost to Rebekha Sharkie at the 2016 election. The seat is a safe non-Labor seat, but that isn't the same as being a safe Liberal seat. The Liberal loss in 2016 was not overly surprising given two early close contests.

The first was in 1998 when former Redgum lead singer and Australian Democrat candidate John Schumann finished second and came close to victory thanks to Labor and One Nation preferences. The second scare was at the 2008 Mayo by-election following Alexander Downer's retirement. The by-election took place at a time when the state of the Murray River was a significant local issue in South Australia. With no Labor Party candidate contesting, the Greens ran the Liberal Party a surprisingly tight race, successful Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs having his margin cut to 3.0%.

Briggs was easily re-elected at more conventional two-party contests against Labor in 2010 and 2013. He served in the outer ministry in the Abbott and Turnbull governments, but was forced to resign at the end of 2015 following an incident involving a DFAT staff member in a Hong Kong bar.

The Nick Xenophon Team contested all South Australian lower house seat at the 2016 election, with Mayo clearly the party's best chance of victory. The presence of Jamie Briggs as the Liberal candidate made the seat an even greater target.

The Xenophon Team's Rebekha Sharkie had previously worked for Briggs and the Liberal Party as an adviser. She polled 34.9% to 37.8% for Briggs at the 2016 election, easily closing the gap after receiving more than 80% of Labor and Green preferences.

Sharkie had residual British citizenship which she moved to renounce well ahead of the election. However, delays in paperwork processing by the British bureaucracy meant that Sharkie's citizenship had not been formally renounced before the close of nominations. Following the High Court's decision on a similar case concerning Labor's Senator Katy Gallagher, Sharkie resigned from Parliament, triggering the by-election.

Past Election Results

Year

Winning Party

1984

LIB

1987

LIB

1990

LIB

1993

LIB

1996

LIB

1998

LIB

2001

LIB

2004

LIB

2007

LIB

2008By

LIB

2010

LIB

2013

LIB

2016

NXT

Coloured tab indicates seat won by a party forming government

As the graph of two-party preferred results below shows, Mayo has always seen the Liberal Party poll 5-10% above the Liberal two-party result for South Australia as a whole. However, the three gold points on the graph show the seat was much more marginal at elections when a minor party or independent finished second, the Australian Demmocrats in 1998, the Greens at the 2008 by-election, and Rebekha Sharkie for the Nick Xenophon Team at the 2016 Federal election.

As the graph of first preference results below shows, when the Liberal Party's main opponent was Labor, the Liberal first preference vote was above 50%. When a credible third party candidate entered the fray, or Labor was absent as at the 2008 by-election, the Liberal vote fell below 50%, putting the seat at risk from strong flows of preferences between third party candidates.

In 1998 and 2008, the Liberal Party retained Mayo thanks to its first preference support staying above 40%. When it fell below this level to 37.8% in 2016, the Liberal Party could not hold the seat against a strong third party challenger such as Rebekha Sharkie.

In 1998 the Democrats received 80.9% of all third party preferences. Preference flows have not been as strong since, favouring the Greens 68.5% at the 2008 by-election, and favouring Rebekha Sharkie 73.4% in 2016. In 2016 Labor preferences were 80% to Sharkie, Green preferences 86%, while Liberal Democrat preferences flowed 55% to the Liberal Party and Family First 59%.

Polling Place Results 2016

Click on a polling place for more information.

Enrolment

There are 107,672 electors enrolled for the by-election., up 3,691 or 3.5% in the two years since the 2016 election.

Opinion Polls

ReachTEL and YouGov Galaxy polls released in early June reported that Rebekha Sharkie was well ahead of Liberal Georgina Downer. Both polls reported Sharkie ahead 58% to 42% after preferences.

Another ReachTEL poll commissioned by the Australia Institute and published on 24 June had Sharkie even further ahead 62% to 38% from first preferences of Sharkie 43.5%, Downer 32.7%, Labor 8.2%, Greens 9.0%, Other/Independent 4.1% and Undecided 2.6%.

A YouGov/Galaxy poll reported in News Limited local papers on 23 July had Rebekha Sharkie leading on first preferences 47% to 35% for Georgina Downer, Labor 9% and the Greens 7%. After preferences the poll predicted Sharkie to win 59% to 41%.

Ballot Paper

Candidates (7) in Ballot Paper Order

Candidate Name

Party

CANE, Tracey-Lee

Christian Democratic Party

HARFOUCHE, Kelsie

Australian People's Party

SUMNER, Major

Greens

DOWNER, Georgina

Liberal

SHARKIE, Rebekha

Centre Alliance

HUMBLE, Stephen

Liberal Democrats

COUTTS, Reginald

Australian Labor Party

Information, pictures and how-to-vote material for candidates can be sent to

Summary of How to Vote Recommendations

The Mayo by-election will see a repeat of the 2016 election in Mayo when Labor finished third. The by-election will be a contest between Liberal candidate Georgina Downer and the Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie with Labor and Green preferences likely to decide the winner.

In 2016 Liberal Jamie Briggs led Rebekha Sharkie by around 3% on first preferences. Briggs received 58% of preferences on the exclusion of Family First and Liberal Democrat candidates, but their combined first preference vote was only 5.8%. This widened Briggs' lead to around 4% but on a tally that was still barely above 40% of the vote. Strong flows of Green and Labor preferences then delivered victory to Sharkie.

In 2016 the Greens polled 8.1% and recommended preferences for Sharkie. 86% of Green voters followed that recommendation. Labor polled 13.5% but did not recommend preferences, instead issuing a how-to-vote showing two preference options, one to Sharkie and one to Briggs. Despite the open ticket, 80% of Labor voters gave preferences to Sharkie.

At the by-election, the Greens are again recommending a preference for Sharkie. This time Labor have recommended preferences for Sharkie, meaning that Labor's preference flows are likely to be even stronger than at the Federal election.

Georgina Downer's chances of victory depend on her being far enough ahead on first preferences and close enough to 50% to avoid being run down during the distribution of preferences. As a minimum Downer needs 43-45% of the first preference vote. If Sharkie leads on first preferences then Downer cannot win. Polls published during the campaign have all had Sharkie well ahead on first preferences and Downer's support in the thirties.

Georgina's father Alexander Downer survived narrowly in 1998 after polling 45.6% on first preferences. Jamie Briggs survived the 2008 by-election from 41.8% first preferences as there were much weaker preference flows to his Green opponent. With only 37.8% first preferences in 2016, Briggs was unable to overcome the flow of preferences to Sharkie.

Copies of how-to-vote material can be found in the candidate profiles below.

Candidates

Tracey-Lee Cane

Christian Democratic Party

Cane was raised in South Australia and lives on the Southern Fleurieu Peninsula. She holds a Bachelor of Applied Science in Recreation, a Masters Award of Social Science (Social Research), a Graduate Diploma of Divinity and is completing her final unit of a Master of Ministry. She has had a varied work background ranging from policy development, to work in policing, as a Pastor, to a self-employed consultant conducting social needs studies, and working with the areas homeless and the disadvantaged

Kelsie Harfouche

Australian People's Party

Harfouche was born in Geraldton WA and runs her own renovations and restorations on property business while raising a family. She has worked as a brickie's labourer, shop attendant, in the mining industry soil sampling for laboratories and as a school lab assistant. She is also qualified as a beauty therapist and ran a beauty studio in Perth's northern suburbs.

Major Sumner

Greens

Major 'Moogy' Sumner AM is a Ngarrindjeri elder and a world-renowned artist, performer and cultural ambassador. He became a Member of the Order of Australia in 2014, after dedicating his life to promoting Aboriginal health and welfare, and youth and cultural heritage. He formed the Tal-kin-jeri Dance Group almost 30 years ago, and has performed around the world.

Georgina Downer

Liberal

Downer has worked and studied interstate and overseas, gaining degrees in Law and Commerce and a Masters Degree from the London School of Economics. She has worked as a solicitor and consultant, was a diplomat with the Australian Embassy in Tokyo, and was a Director of Asialink focusing on Australia-Asia engagement. More recenlty she was a Research Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs, making regular television appearances giving political commentary. If elected she will be the fourth generation of the Downer family to serve in Federal parliament.

Rebekha Sharkie

Centre Alliance

Sharkie's journey into politics began working in conveyancing and office management, juggling hours with her responsibilities as a mother. She later worked in political offices, for former member Jamie Briggs and for the SA Liberal party. Sharkie worked as a senior manager in the youth support sector before being chosen as the Nick Xenophon Team candidate and going on to win Mayo at the 2016 election.

Stephen Humble

Reginald Coutts

Australian Labor Party

Professor Reg Coutts is an expert in the fields of commercial radio technologies and telecommunications. He holds a Ph.D in engineering, a BE(Hons) and a B.Sc. After a lengthy career with Telstra, in 1993 Coutts was appointed as Professor of Telecommunications at Adelaide University, establishing the department and putting in place ground breaking relationships with industry. Coutts has advised governments on telecommunication policy, been a member of the Australian Communications and Media Authority, and participated as a technology start-up board member. He is a long term resident of Hahndorf in the Adelaide Hills.