It’s been so hot and so dry …

The month finished with an average temperature of 86.15 degrees, besting a mark set in 1906.

The Junes of 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 all rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record.

April, May and June of 2011 all rank among the 10 warmest on record in Houston.

Houston had seven 100-degree days in June. On average it gets four per decade.

August is the city’s warmest month. This June would tied for the eighth warmest August of all time.

It’s been so dry…

Nearly three-quarters of Texas now falls into an “exceptional” drought, the worst category.

The driest nine-month stretch in Texas history ran from June of 1917 through February 1918 (average 9.36 inches)

Since Oct. 1, forecasters estimate Texas has had about 8.5 inches of rain.

Houston has had 7.9 inches of rain this year. It normally has about 25 inches by now.

Click to enlarge. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

So can we now declare this the worst drought in Texas history? Not yet, says state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon:

If the combined July-September precipitation for Texas is 5 inches or so, we’ll equal our driest 12 months ever, set from October 1955 to September 1956. Because of the previous years of drought in the 1950s, the current drought still wouldn’t be as bad as then. That’s from a meteorological point of view; impact severity may be different.

The big question, of course, is when things might cool off. Not for the next week. Houston will remain at the southern edge of a strong ridge of high pressure, says the National Weather Service. This will keep temperatures warm (highs mid- to upper-90s, lows in the mid-70s) and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms each day.

Not, therefore, a big change for the July 4th weekend. But looking a bit deeper in July there may be some call for hope. It appears some of the main signals are trending wetter with time over southeast Texas, says Fred Schmude with ImpactWeather:

Even though the computer models look quite bleak as far as rain prospects are concerned, we’re continuing to see some subtle weather features that will likely result in a better chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms late this weekend into the following week.

First of all, strong upper level high pressure which tends to keep a stable cap of warmer air aloft over the region is forecast to slowly weaken over the next week and gradually pivot westward toward the southern Rockies resulting in a slowly increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Secondly, minor disturbances rotating around that retreating area of upper level high pressure will push southwestward into southeast Texas from Louisiana which could also lead to fast moving showers and embedded strong thunderstorms during the early to middle part of next week.

Some of the computer models are already hinting at this type of activity, but at this time it’s too early to predict the exact timing and intensity of these potential disturbances. Overall, the combination of retreating upper level high pressure and southwest moving disturbances from Louisiana will likely lead to higher rain chances during the early to middle part of next week. For now, there’s just enough instability around to warrant a slight chance for mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.

The long range outlook for July remains about on track as strong upper level high pressure gradually pivots westward and sets up shop across a large part of the Rockies. We’re already seeing signs of that pattern shift next week and we expect that to be the overall trend for the month. As a result, we should see more frequent episodes of showers and thunderstorms during July, mainly associated with the sea breeze and weak tropical disturbances. By August we’re still expecting a dramatic change with more widespread episodes of heavier rainfall due to a more favorable wind pattern. August is of course the time when we really start to get concerned about tropical activity, so we’ll be watching very closely any potential threats to the Gulf of Mexico.

So the high pressure system we need to protect us from the tropics in August and September may be gone by then. Hmmm…

32 Responses

Was the extraordinary average temperature a result of higher-then-normal highs, higher-than-normal-lows, or a combination of the two? How does June’s average low compare with the historic record? What about June’s average high?

The heat was driven primarily by daily highs, due to the clear skies and lack of rain and cloud cover. The average daily high this month was 97.4 degrees, which smashed the record average high for June (96.7 degrees, 2009) . The average high during June, 1906 was “only” 95.7 degrees. I mention this because it previously held the record for highest average June temperature.

How bout putting this one line of thought poster in the dunking booth at the next state fair. Might cool him off. Oh, and withholding his testosterone shots could help too.

Eric I guess being a Texan you are really big on this free speech thing. Kind of like the Supreme Court letting those Kansas whackos continue to perform their twisted brand of demonstrating at military funerals.

Looking at that map it seems appropriate seeing as to how Texas is the reddest state in the Union. Now before anyone piles on, I’m not implying God is punishing us/making a point. I’m just making a comment on the obvious. That Texas map is really red… or Marroon actually. Gig ‘Em?

So in an attempt to diffuse possible political ranting, you decided to invoke Texas universities instead? No, no heated (pun quite intended) discussions there! (And remember, Eric’s a Longhorn.)

We’re leaving tomorrow for a week-long family reunion outside of Toronto. Highs upper 70s, lows lower 60’s. I actually really love my in-laws, but I’ve come to realize how much I love where they live. And, yes, of course y’all can all come too!

Eric,
When people talk about temperature deviations from “normal”, they are now using data from 1971-2000. This includes some really hot years, like 1998. Do any of your contacts at the local NWS office have archived data on what the “normals” for Intercontinental or Hobby were in previous decades? I seem to recall the data I looked at as a kid (I think they were using 1951-1980 back then) being at least a degree or two cooler than present normals.

I am presently looking into this as NOAA just released the new national normals earlier this week. They reflect about a 0.5 degree increase in temperature and I expect the local climate numbers to also show an increase. When I have all the information I will do a comprehensive post on this.

went thru llano yesterday on the way to my deer lease. when you hit the city limits a big sign proclaims “stage 4 no watering”. west of llano is worse. other than one year in the early 90’s in junction, i have never seen it this bad. there is nothing. it is unbelieveable.

if there are any deer left, they may prefer suicide by hunter this fall.

When was the last time Houston had an above normal rainfall year? A year that would be considered a “wet year”. I’ve lived here for 3 years now and it seems like we’ve been dryer than normal the entire time I’ve lived here.

Eric,
I know everyone is aware of the Las Conchas fire since its proximity to Los Alamos makes it big news. Right now, Los Alamos is looking better and better but the fire is now burning land on the Santa Clara Pueblo. Besides homes being threatened, the entire watershed for the pueblo is in danger. If there is a lot of land burned, then the water supply is affected.

Everyday (literally) a new fire springs up in New Mexico. The Donaldson fire (started by lightening on Sam Donaldson’s ranch) and the Skeen fire (started on the Skeen ranch) has merged and it has burned over 72,000 acres. It is 0% contained.

The Little Lewis fire is now 15% contained. It also in the Lincoln National Forest area. Many small communities and farm animals have been evacuated to Cloudcroft.

One of the main problems is the dry lightening strikes. There were a lot of storms over the central and western mountains last night but little to no rain. (Two days ago we watched the virga above us in eastern NM but not a drop made it to the ground.) The Albuquerque meteorologist said last night that we would not know for several days if it caused any new fires because it often takes a couple of days for a lightening strike fire to “brew.”

Some good news… at least for me. I’ve been watching rain at my house. I saw rain on the cameras for at least a half hour. Pretty steady, too. I’m still seeing puddles (which will, of course dry up by the time I get home).

Of course this had to happen. I went out before work this morning, around 6AM. Cup of coffee in one hand, garden hose in the other. Watered the plants, watered the house’s foundation, filled my wife’s decorative birdbath sculpture.