Friday, March 30, 2012

Alejandro Hope has a long meditation on the myriad public security issues that the presidential candidates should be addressing, framed as a Q and A. It is, as is customary, quite illuminating. Highlights:

The entire quote was, "he luchado por cambiar eso con hechos, he tratado de ser un Presidente que no roba y que hace obra."; adding context makes it only slightly less jarring. Assuming he was speaking off the cuff, it's better to give him credit for the sentiment --Thank you for not robbing!-- rather than knock him too much for the odd wording. But my, that wording is odd. Mobutu could say the same thing: [Said] I tried, [unsaid] but not particularly hard, and I failed.

The campaigns for the Mexican presidency officially kicked off today, at 12:01 am. With just three months of campaigning allotted, the candidates hit the ground running. Peña Nieto promised to make 500 promises over the course of the campaign (499 of those involving talk show appearances), Vázquez Mota arrived to her speech popping wheelies on a Harley and demanded full medical exams conducted on each of the candidates before a national television audience, and López Obrador read a poem from Neruda and then made kissing sounds into microphone for 15 minutes. [Note: may not be factually accurate.] No one knows what Quadri did, because no one knows who he is or if he even exists; there is growing evidence that he is not a man but a hologram created by a secret lab funded by all the SNTE member dues.

Monday, March 26, 2012

While the government still focuses on taking down capos, it has largely ceased to justify increased violence as a necessary phase in the assault on crime. Most of its recent policy proposals focus on lowering the number of murders. Sicilia, who has enormous credibility as a man who lost his son to criminal violence, has been instrumental in bringing about this shift.

[...]

Sicilia dismissed Mexico’s upcoming presidential elections, calling them a “disgrace” and essentially saying that his movement would not participate. While this attitude speaks to understandable frustration with the inefficacy of government policy, any solution to Mexico’s problems with organized crime will require a robust role for the government. NGOs and popular movements can provide a vital service by criticizing official policy and forcing policy makers to seek constant improvements in their strategies, but any group that shows its frustration with the government by ignoring it is going to have a severely limited impact.

Sicilia at one point said that his group sought "arms with which to pressure the politicians." This makes sense, insofar as it refers to making politicians more responsive to the nation’s demands, yet the most obvious weapon in a democratic society is the vote. By abandoning greater participation in electoral campaigns, and refusing to get involved in the political fray, Sicilia reduces his impact substantially and unnecessarily.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Here's a new piece about the Cartel de Jalisco--Nueva Generación. Highlights:

The video also demonstrates how Mexico's criminal groups have begun to utilize public relations techniques, claiming to be motivated by the wish to protect the people. Various gangs have grown accustomed to proclaiming their intentions and justifying their actions with public banners, often called "narcomantas," videos uploaded to the Internet, and even interviews with major media outlets. More often than not, the groups try to take the moral high ground against their enemies, as the CJNG does in its latest video, tarring the Caballeros as kidnappers and thieves.

It’s not always clear what is motivating this tendency for gangs to paint themselves as the good guys and their enemies as the villains. Sometimes, it’s clearly in a group’s interest to distance themselves from a particularly heinous crime or assuage fears that they might seek to overthrow the government, to try deflect the attention of the authorities. But most citizens, to say nothing of the government, will put little stock in any group’s proclamations that they are the noblest of the gangsters.

Friday, March 23, 2012

As Leo Zuckermann notes, you can now bet on Peña Nieto (a $10 payout costs $7), Vázquez Mota (bet $2 to win $10), and AMLO ($1 wins you $10) at InTrade. No odds have emerged for Quadri, shockingly. Nor, for that matter, for Juanito, who is not, we feel obligated to add, exactly the sort of civic lion that people had in mind when advocating for independent candidacies.

Vázquez Mota's campaign sent out a press release identifying Mario Vargas Llosa as a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. He's really racking up the hardware, evidently.

Less embarrassingly but more worryingly for panistas, Vázquez Mota has lost eight points from the previous GEA-ISA poll, from 29 to 21 points. Interestingly, both AMLO and Peña Nieto also lost two points, so indecision and apathy seems to be the big winner. The February GEA-ISA poll, which put her within seven points of Peña Nieto, had fanned a great deal of optimism, but with her deficit rising to 13 points, it seems that it was either an outlier or a temporary blip.

I think it's long been clear that Vázquez Mota's campaign is not going to catch fire, and, by dint of her charisma and talent, fly past Peña Nieto, making us all forget he was over the runaway favorite. She could still win, but it seems more and more likely that the same dynamic that has prevailed over the past three years --Peña Nieto dominating-- will carry into the election. This is perhaps dangerously short-sighted given that the campaign hasn't officially begun, but he has a 15- or 20-point lead, the public seems willing to forgive any defect of his, personal or professional, and his opponents are the most disliked politician in Mexico and a lightweight. The debates have the potential to shift the landscape, but, without Peña Nieto going catatonic or admitting to kidnapping children, I am skeptical that they could truly upend the status quo laid out above.

I've always had sympathy for Zedillo as well. He's not a charismatic figure or a natural politician, and after taking over in Dec. 1994 and managing the peso crisis poorly in several respects, he was destined to be seen negatively, but I don't think he gets his due for shepherding Mexico toward democracy to the extent that he did. As Krauze points out, Mexican democracy certainly wasn't his accomplishment, but he was a driving force behind much of the groundwork of the multiparty system that exists today, and I think Mexico was lucky that a man far more liberal than his party's mean was in Los Pinos. I think the question to ask is: What would have happened in the late 1990s had, say, Roberto Madrazo been in power?

Evidently, Enrique Peña Nieto's favorite president is Adolfo López Mateos. The latter had the fortune of leading Mexico during global boom years, so economic performance was quite good during his time in power, and he's also from Mexico State, the only president (until December, at least) able to make that claim, according to Excélsior. (Although I can't help but wonder: was there not a single of the dozens of forgotten presidents in the years after independence who were from Mexico State?) Nonetheless, his administration strikes me as one of the most vanilla of the twentieth century. Given some of the disasters to set up shop in Los Pinos, that is admirable enough, but still, it seems roughly akin to an American president claiming Ford or Coolidge as his model.

Then again, a vanilla effort from here on in is good enough to get Peña Nieto into the presidency.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

After arriving in grand style to register with IFE as the PAN candidate --that is, on the back of a motorcycle driven by one of her security detail, an option selected because of the DF traffic and the candidate running late for her appointment-- Josefina Vázquez Mota challenged her opponents to take drug and polygraph tests. Inspiring.

I can't emphasize strongly enough how much I support this sentiment. Let me try again: I can't emphasize strongly enough how much I support this sentiment. Far too often, this point is absent in analysis of Mexico and Latin America in general, whether the issue is public security, structural reforms, or parking.

Felipe Calderón named José Ángel Córdova the secretary of education, replacing Alonso Lujambio, who is suffering from cancer. Córdova, who earned widespread plaudits as health secretary, lost out on the PAN's gubernatorial nomination in Guanajuato several weeks ago (knowing the region, presumably his sanity, pragmatism, and competence constituted the electoral albatross around Córdova's neck), and had been rumored as the PRI's candidate for the post. This takes him out of the running for that post, and keeps one of the PAN's more likeable high profile panistas in the fold.

Excélsior had a front-page story yesterday about how the presidential candidates could expect to find the majority of their votes in just ten states, and how in 2006, these ten provided 63 percent of all the votes cast. This is a banal census factoid masquerading as a piece of vital inside baseball: the ten states in question account for 67 million Mexicans, out of a total of roughly 110 million total.

Below the fold, Excélsior informed us that Jennifer Lopez is "more than sexy". It was a good day for the "périodico de la vida nacional".

Friday, March 16, 2012

Ronaldo was caught chatting with Puyol's ex, evidently. That probably means nothing, but of course it needs to be blown up into a love triangle, because the Clásico in general and Ronaldo in particular suffer from a lack of animosity.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Excélsior runs down some of the actors, authors, and the like who are behind AMLO this year. For his part, Peña Nieto has Juan Manuel Márquez, and, of course, his wife. Are there any major celebs backing Vázquez Mota? Surely there are, but she is plainly getting crushed in this regard. Perhaps a phone call to Bilbao to congratulate a certain Mexican striker for a brilliant comeback later today is in order?

Alejandro Hope has a fascinating post about how the lack of density in Monterrey contributes to the difficulty in policing the region. The whole thing is worth reading, but this chart gives you an idea of what he's talking abut:

Monday, March 12, 2012

Phil Ball had a characteristically interesting meditation on greatness and Messi in this week's column:

Is it easier or more difficult to shine nowadays? That's a tough question to answer and maybe one that needs more words than I'm allowed in this column. Nevertheless, if I was really forced to decide, I'd say it's tougher now. Defenders are faster and fitter, players are constantly under the spotlight, top sides play more fixtures, and the general weekly pressure is relentless. In the past, it's true that the relative lack of media scrutiny meant that the Butchers from Bilbao and the Norman Hunters could get away with more of their darker arts, but the sheer demands made on the modern professional footballer far exceed those of the past, even considering the argument that the current ones are relatively pampered.

The fact that Messi has emerged in this era, and the further fact that he has even engendered this debate, is proof of his greatness. In the end, it will come down to subjective considerations, because your idea of brilliance might not quite gel with mine, but both of us are right. I find Messi's sudden, darting movements and stop-start changes of direction fascinating, but I preferred to watch George Best's anarchic elegance. It's just an aesthetic thing. But any objective judgment of these two players will always find Best wanting - his lack of self-discipline, the fact that he left the top-flight at 27 and the amount of medals that Messi already possesses would seem to clinch the argument. Pele has hinted at the same, saying recently that when Messi has scored 1,283 goals and won three World Cups, "then we'll talk". Such a view of greatness - longevity plus goals and titles - seems a little brutal, but you can understand why Pele said it.

It's still tough to consider anyone to be greater than the Brazilian, but perhaps to do so we have to shift the goalposts (if you'll excuse the metaphor) and apply the new criteria that Messi forces us to consider. Why? Because if he were to be struck down by lightning tomorrow, we might still be prepared to consider him the greatest ever. Has any player ever seemed so supernatural in his gifts, or been so consistently brilliant in such a demanding league? Pele remained throughout his career in the relative comfort of the Brazilian league. Also, Messi is unlikely to be struck by lightning, and seems to be confounding those who thought that he would never last the pace, physically speaking. He rarely seems to be injured these days, and will surely last until his mid-30s.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Who is the best Brazilian footballer playing today? It seems like the best case, using a combination of recent achievements and current form, could be made for Thiago Silva, Dani Alves, or Marcelo. I don't know what people are saying about Julio Cesar, but I don't think he's quite over the hill yet, though he is a keeper. In any event, no one playing above the back line (unless you count Alves) really merits consideration, which is astonishing. Neymar will probably be great, but success with Santos in Brazil and the Libertadores doesn't qualify him yet. Ditto Ganso. A similar story for Lucas. Kaká, Robinho, and Ronaldinho have all fallen off. Ramires, Nilmar, and Elano never quite reached the peak of the sport. I might have bet on Pato to be the nation's best player two years ago, but he's not made the leap, and he was almost moved in January.

Not only is this surprising given Brazil's history, but at 27 or so months from the World Cup, it's going to soon grow worrying.

First: Since last August, according to Mitofsky, the percentage of people who view the economic realm as the source of Mexico's principal problem has basically grown steadily (from 43 percent to 50 percent), while the proportion of those polled pointing to security issues as Mexico's biggest problem has shrunk from 51 to 44 percent. August seems to have been an outlier month, which exaggerates the scope of the switch, but the trend is clear. Nonetheless, the economy is significantly safer now than it was six months ago, and its performance is light years better than it was two years ago. At the same time, Mexico's rates of violence have been leveling off or even declining in recent months, but more people were killed in incidents linked to organized crime in 2011 than ever before.

Second: One of the principal changes in the Mexican underworld over the past five years is criminal gangs' mobility. Whether you attribute it to the government pursuit or a vicious cycle of violence that is largely isolated from government policy, there is little debate that gangs have been uprooted (or have voluntarily uprooted themselves) with greater frequency than in the past. However, at the same time, criminal activities relying on extraction profits from the civilian population have increased. Among the most important of these activities is extortion, which is based on the gang being a long-term and semi-open part of the local landscape, rather than a hidden and temporary actor, which would be more the case in smuggling drugs.

Here's a new post about the PRD at Este País, based on an article in El Cotidiano by a Davidson College prof named Dag Mossige. There's a lot to like about the piece, but the quotes he gets from anonymous PRD officials are particularly memorable. Highlights:

Monday, March 5, 2012

In a poll that does not include the undecided vote, BGC-Excélsior places Peña Nieto's support at 18 points above Vázquez Mota, a tally of 47 to 29. López Obrador remains in third at 23. Although if we are attributing a single-digit margin to the PAN paying for certain polls, it's entirely possible that polls showing a nearly 20-point gap also have a thumb on the scale. Whatever the case, Peña Nieto's lead does seem ample.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Mourinho wouldn't necessarily need the huge money available at Real to re-establish Barcelona. The number of reports stressing Mourinho's team building abilities make any further demonstration unnecessary. Adding to Cech, Terry and Lampard with the signing of Drogba he created the most durable spine of the Premier League era. At Inter he did something similar with Cesar, Lucio, Sneijder and Eto'o. At Barcelona plenty of the replacements are already there in the reserves. The emotional ties players claim to have for Barcelona would only help Mourinho create his desired team spirit. There is no reason to doubt he could create a new foundation to rejuvenate ambition in a team that occasionally seems happy to go through the, admittedly impressive, motions.

Odd that Barça is the consensus best team on the planet, they remain the favorites to pick up a double, including the Champions League, and he talks about the need to reestablish them. It's like so many GOP debaters talking about the need to reestablish American power.

In any event, both Real and Barça would continue to kick everyone else's ass if the two men at the top switched sides. I think someone else mentioned this in a column a few weeks ago, but it's far more fun to consider how Pep or Mourinho would do at the reins of, say, Getafe.

Leo Zuckermann also has doubts about the GEA/ISA poll showing a seven-point gap between Peña Nieto and Vázquez Mota, referring to a Parametría poll that shows a 17 point advantage for the priísta. Peña Nieto's lead is also shrinking in the latter poll, but starting from a much larger point. Furthermore, he points out that GEA/ISA will now be running a daily tracking poll for Milenio, and wonders who is paying for it. Milenio would seem to have deep enough pockets to do so if it wished, but the implication is that the PAN may be partially responsible.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Furthermore, and perhaps most importantly, bin Laden was much more central to his movement than Guzman is to his industry. Radical Islamic fundamentalism didn’t begin and end with bin Laden, but his charisma and personal devotion to the cause rallied thousands of others to join him. While the academic research on the decapitation of terrorist groups is not clear-cut, the evidence suggests that killing bin Laden is far more likely to limit al Qaida’s ability to attack the US than killing Guzman would be to limit Mexican gangsters’ ability to traffic drugs.

Indeed, in Guzman’s case, it’s unlikely that killing him alone would radically alter the power even of his Sinaloa Cartel, which is also directed by other prestigious figures -- Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Juan Jose "El Azul" Esparragoza -- in addition to Guzman. And more to the point, killing or arresting Guzman would have an even smaller impact on the industry as a whole, as other gangs would inevitably race in to absorb the reduced market share of a weakened Sinaloa Cartel. Put another way, capos, even the most powerful ones, are merely cogs in a much larger machine. If one cog is removed, another can, and inevitably will, replace it. The machine, driven by an insatiable demand for recreational drugs, grinds on with whatever parts are available.

And on the dark side, according to Proceso, of accusations that the improvements in Juárez, here:

Julian Leyzaola, the controversial municipal police chief who has emerged as the foremost protagonist of the government’s anti-crime efforts, has been charged with introducing a number of unsavory ingredients to the mixture in Juarez. Principal among the complaints are a lack of respect for human rights, with municipal officers accused of carrying out extrajudicial executions and the chief himself fingered as a participant in jailhouse beatings.

The article also details accusations that the municipal police have begun to arrest to vast numbers of locals -- up to 10,000 per month -- on minor charges such as failing to carry their proper identification. The goal, according to critics, is for the officers to mete out fines and thereby increase the department’s income.

A couple of further points on that Proceso piece: I have a hard time believing that Leyzaola actually participated in the jailhouse beating of wealthy female hotelier. He may be morally capable of such a thing, but someone so reckless and stupid would presumably have a hard time getting to where he's gotten. Though maybe power has just gone to his head.

Also, while parts of it read like the standard Proceso litany of abuses by the government (which is, I hasten add, a necessary genre, just not one that lends itself to original writing), the piece is really pretty interesting in its exploration of how he built up self-respect among the local police. You don't read about public security from the police officer's perspective in Mexico very often, so it's an illuminating read from that standpoint, too.

Finally, Tim Johnson notes that the number of murders dropped to 82 in February, the lowest figure in three years, and less than a quarter the highest monthly number I am familiar with.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

A new poll from GEA/ISA places Vázquez Mota just seven points behind Peña Nieto, 36 to 29 points in the latest voter preference survey. This poll is certainly not as untrustworthy as that which was mentioned by Calderón last week and which evidently measured a four-point margin, but among the major media polls, this latest one is an outlier. The Mitofsky poll released a few days ago had Peña Nieto on top by 15, an advantage of 40 to 25, a much more significant shortfall.

In each poll, López Obrador remains stuck at 17, lending credence to the idea that he has a hard cap on the support he can reliably expect.