As a forward,
I wish to point out some relevant facts. By all indications, our
sun in about to undergo major disturbances the likes of which
have scientists excited and satellite owners worried beyond
belief. According to all data reviewed to date, between now and
the year 2003, we can expect increased lightening activity,
thunderstorms, possible continent wide power black outs, weather
shifts and even magnificent auroral displays ("signs in the
sky".)

Satellites may be killed by approaching waves
of highly charges particles. Communications (military,
aviation, oceanic, television etc.) could be disrupted for an
unknown period of time. Other phenomena that is associated with
solar flare activity will occur that could, in ways not immediately noticeable,
effect each and every
one of us....living on the surface. Those people that are fortunate
enough to be in an underground habitat, like FEMA, NORAD, etc.
will be safe and secure from any disruptions. Everybody else, however, may have to
fend for themselves if things get really bad.

The following
is quoted directly from the Solar Web Site (July 4, 1997) Listed
as: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/. All comments of researcher John
Rhodes are in WHITE text. This author has increased the font size and bold typed
important quoted material.

Solar Cycle Status Report

STATUS OF THE CURRENT SOLAR
CYCLE:

Everyone now agrees that we have
finally observed the birth of solar cycle 23. We
have probably been immersed within this new cycle for some
time. According to sunspots, the minimum occurred in May
1996 with an as yet unofficial smoothed sunspot number of 8.1.
Since then, we have observed a steady increase in the number of
new-cycle sunspots having the proper new-cycle magnetic
polarities. At the time of this writing, most of the new
sunspots which are appearing are new-cycle spots.

According to the number of days
in which no sunspots appeared, the cycle minimum (or maximum
number of spotless days) occurred in October 1996 when there were
26 spotless days. This month also corresponds with the
lowest monthly observed sunspot number of 2.3 (reported by SEC)
and 1.8 (according to the International Relative Sunspot Number
[RI]).

In addition, butterfly plots
showing the emergence of new solar sunspot regions according to
solar latitude indicates a clear separation in formation
latitudes from old cycle 22 and new cycle 23. There are
also many other parameters which have shown that new cycle 23 is
now firmly in-progress.

This conclusion is a
mixed-blessing for industry.

Radio communicators can now begin
to look forward to an increasingly productive reign of
ionospheric radio communications. In fact, higher-band
high-frequency (HF) radio communications are already beginning to
be observed. By July of 1998 (within the next 12 months),
the observed sunspot number should almost triple in magnitude
from a current predicted smoothed value of 40 for June 1997
(predicted through regression methods) to 109 (plus or minus 25)
by July 1998. This will substantially increase the strength
of the ionosphere. The next year will therefore be an
exciting one for radio communicators.

The
predicted smoothed sunspot number over the next 9 years is
predicted to follow this pattern:

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1997

019

022

027

030

034

040

044

050

054

060

066

071

1998

077

082*

088

093

099

103

109

113

119

123

128

131

1999

136

139

142

146

148

151

153

154

156

157

158

159

2000

160

160

160

160

159

158

157

156

155

154

152

150

2001

148

146

142

140

137

134

131

128

124

121

118

114

2002

111

107

103

100

097

093

089

086

082

079

076

072

2003

069

066

062

060

057

053

051

048

046

043

041

039

2004

036

034

032

030

028

027

024

023

021

020

109

017

2005

016

014

013

012

012

011

010

009

009

008

***

***

* Feb. 26, 1998 Solar Eclipse

(Note: These are the highest figures
listed. Will planetary alignment increase effects?)

The predicted
smoothed 10.7 cm solar radio flux values over the next 9 years is
predicted to follow this pattern:

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

1997

077

080

084

087

091

096

100

105

109

114

119

124

1998

129

134

139

144

149

153

158

162

167

171

175

178

1999

182

185

188

191

193

196

198

199

201

202

203

204

2000

205

205

205

205

204

203

202

201

200

199

197

195

2001

193

191

188

186

183

181

178

175

172

169

166

163

2002

160

156

153

150

147

144

140

137

134

131

128

125

2003

122

119

116

114

111

108

106

103

101

099

097

095

2004

092

091

089

087

085

084

082

081

079

078

077

075

2005

074

073

072

071

071

070

069

068

068

67

0

***

Satellite operators and users of
satellite technology are less impressed with the onset of this
new cycle of activity. The increased number of sunspots
implies an attendant increase in the number of solar flares
capable of spewing out particles that can charge and
damage sensitive electronic components. The
number of associated Earth-directed coronal mass ejections will
also increase. This all means that users and
owners of satellite technology will have to be increasingly aware
of potential Earth-bound interplanetary disturbances. The
death of the Telstar 401 satellite has been unofficially
attributed to the arrival of such a disturbance, combined with
the effects of higher-than-normal densities of energetically
charged electrons. That particular interplanetary
disturbance was about the size of a mouse when you think of what
is yet to come over the next 4 to 6 years.

The largest
interplanetary disturbances which we will observe during solar
cycle 23 may be closer in size to an elephant than the small
mouse we observed that may have contributed to the sudden death
of Telstar 401. The overwhelming message
which should be sent to users of satellite technology during this
new solar cycle is....

"be
cautious."

Electrical hydro operators
have enjoyed several years of quiet conditions. Nothing
similar in magnitude to the events of March 1989 have been
observed, where almost the entire electrical grid of
electricity supplied to the province of Quebec collapsed within
less than 2 minutes due to powerful electrical currents that were
induced into Hydro Quebec's electrical power lines during one of
the strongest geomagnetic storms on record. Since
most of the electrical power lines and companies interconnect
their lines, this outage had impacts all across North
America. The additional load drawn from other
power companies to compensate for the loss observed during the
Quebec blackout brought many other power companies close to
similar failure conditions. If the situation was slightly
worse, other blackouts across North America could have been
observed - possibly making this a much larger continent-wide type
of power blackout instead of a relatively localized province-wide
Quebec blackout.

(Note:
"Continent -wide type of power blackout" =
No alarm systems, no lights, no traffic signals etc. This will
entice rioting, theft and total disorder in the inner cities. If
the grid isn't put online ASAP, the government would HAVE to put
troops on the streets to control the chaotic situations. The
worse fears of the "paranoid" like us would
become a reality.)

Oak
Ridge National Laboratory studied the effects that a geomagnetic
storm might have on the U.S. economy if the storm was only
slightly larger than the one observed in March 1989. Their
estimate of the impact of such a disturbance to the Gross
Domestic Product alone put total economic costs in the U.S.
in the $3 to $6 BILLION dollar range! This assessment,
along with reviews conducted by the North American Electric
Reliability Council placed the 1989 and 1991 geomagnetic
storm events in a category equivalent to hurricane Hugo and the
San Fransisco earthquake in its relative impact to the
reliability of the electric power grids in North America.
That's a sobering thought for hydro operators and everyone
reliant upon electricity!

(Remarks: If
a geomagnetic storm, only slightly stronger than that of 1989, cost approximately 6 BILLION dollars in damage, what would
the predicted 23rd solar cycle flares and coronal
discharges cost the nation? What effects would strong storms have on the Power grid? I tend not to be an
alarmist, but I do suggest that people PREPARE for the worst case scenario! GET A GENERATOR AND FOOD SUPPLIES etc.
[there may be a run on what few supermarkets are open and ATM
machines would most likely be shut down due to satellite failures, so store small $bills
e.g. 5's, 10's,
20',s])

The ability
to predict conditions conducive to such large storm events will
receive a considerable boost later this year when NASA's ACE
satellite (Advanced Composition Explorer) is due to be
launched. This satellite will provide near-continuous
sampling of the space environment upstream of the Earth. It
will provide as much as about 60 minutes of lead-time to the
arrival of disturbances at the Earth. This should be
sufficient time to allow hydro operators to prepare and watch for
the damaging conditions that can follow interplanetary
disturbances.

(Note: How
can we access this down linked information? Is there anybody out
there that can figure out how we can monitor this
"Advanced Composition Explorer" data link, so we will
call out a 60 minute alarm also? If anybody reading this knows
how we can listen and interpret the incoming data from this
satellite, please contact us with the information. )

Predictions of geomagnetic activity show that the number of
minor, major and severe geomagnetic storms will steadily
increase. The year with the maximum number of minor storm
days is expected in the year 2005 during the
decline of solar cycle 23 when the occurrence frequency of
geoeffective coronal holes will reach a maximum. Over 40
minor storm days are expected in the year 2005. During the solar maximum year of 2000, coronal mass ejection induced minor
storms should number at about 30 during the year.
This is more than double the number of minor storm days expected
during 1997. Major geomagnetic storming is expected to
peak in the years between 1999 and 2002. Severe
geomagnetic storming, which is very difficult to predict, should
peak in frequency between the years 1999 and 2005 with the
preferred year of peak severe storm frequency being 2002.

People
interested in observing aurora's will be happy to know that we
are well on our way to seeing larger events. Over the
next 3 to 6 years, we will see many very significant auroral
displays that should cover much of the U.S. and all of
Canada. Activity observed during the last 3 years
has been very miniscule compared to the events we can expect to
observe during this new cycle. The largest of these
events should be sufficiently intense to produce visible auroral
activity from as far south as Florida! Although
this is horrendous news for satellite users, radio communicators,
navigators, surveyors and others, it is exciting news for those
who love to watch for these awesomely powerful
atmospheric displays of activity.

The
frequency and magnitude of solar flares is also expected to
increase considerably over the next 3 to 6 years. Over the last
few years, most of the solar flares we have observed have been
very small and insignificant. As we approach the
new millenium, the influence and power output of solar flares
could increase by several orders of magnitude. The largest solar
flares of this new solar cycle will almost certainly be at least
10,000 times more powerful than the majority of smaller flares we
have observed over the last couple of years. These rogue
flares could begin to be observed as early as 1998 with a peak
expected in the years between 1999 and 2003.

Broken
down, the number of M-class flares observed during an entire year
should follow a pattern similar to this:

1997
1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
2003 2004 15
40
220 530
370 540

The
number of X-class flares observed during an entire year should
behave similar to this:

1997
1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
2003 2004
1 5
15 40
30 50

Major
proton flare events capable of increasing proton densities in the
near-Earth space environment are expected to reach a maximum
between the years 1999 and 2003 with a double-maximum predicted
for the years 2000 and 2002. The number of predicted solar
proton events is expected to increase slightly in 1998 and then
more than triple between 1998 and 1999. There could be a
fairly copious number of solar proton events during cycle
23. Estimates range from about 8 to as high as about 16 per
year during the years of maximum proton flaring.

These
are just a few of the events we can expect to observe during this
new solar cycle.

The
new millennium should be ushered in a BANG!

Periods
of solar activity will be observed that will be capable of
literally shaking space!

(Note: THESE
ARE THEIR WORDS... NOT MINE!)

(Authors Remarks: To
help accommodate the increased demand for information during solar
cycle 23, we have redesigned our web pages to serve more as a
central hub for information. Everything from current solar
and geophysical indices to current auroral activity sighting
reports, daily reports, alerts and warnings, and much more
can now be found at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar )