India's retail inflation eases in February

Figures released Tuesday by the U.S. Labor Department revealed that, on a year-over-year basis, the consumer price index rose 2.2%, a bit ahead of the 2.1% increase reported in January.

Consumer food prices rose 3.26 percent in February, compared with 4.70 percent in January, as prices of pulses fell more than 17 percent from a year earlier. The headline CPI reading of 2.2% in February was basically in line with expectations, but removing the food and energy components for a core annualized inflation reading of 1.8% was the victory. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.2%.

Meanwhile, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, estimates core price inflation could rise to 2.1% in March from a year earlier. While the manufacturing sector grew 8.7% in January, compared with 2.5% in the same month past year, capital goods grew 14.6% and consumer non-durables 10.5% in the month under review.

The food index was unchanged, while prices for food at home decreased 0.2%. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.8% over the past year, while the energy index increased 7.7% and the food index advanced 1.4%.

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The CPI report came on the heels of data last Friday showing a deceleration in wage growth in February as well as a downward revision to January's increase in average hourly earnings. The capital goods sector continued to witness strong growth of 14.6% in January, although this was lower than the 16.44% seen in the previous month.

India's factory output grew at a robust pace for the third straight month, at 7.5% in January, while retail inflation surprisingly slowed for the second consecutive month to 4.4% in February, signalling that the economy may be set on a strong recovery path.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted February´s rate would ease to 4.8 percent from 5.1 percent in January. The RBI in its monetary policy review last month had estimated retail inflation at 5.1% for January-March 2018.

With a fall in vegetable prices and recent financial market developments, the report highlighted that a "Pandora's Box" has been opened for the RBI, awaiting its response. It expects gross value added - a key measure of growth - to increase 7.2 percent next fiscal year from 6.6 percent this year.

At a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the price index has gained 4.2 per cent so far this year, compared to a gain of only 3.3 per cent at the same point last year.

Talking to reporters after the meeting, Kumar said the government has been in talks with different parties to end the stalemate. Sources said the government will take up discussion and voting on demands for grants and the Finance Bill Wednesday.

The U.S. president is demanding that Europe open itself more to American products, especially American food products like beef. To put that into perspective, that's about $470 billion - roughly the size of Thailand's output.

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