New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% during February (+0.6% y/y) following
a 2.0% January increase, initially estimated as 2.8%. An 8.9% decline (-22.4
y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts bookings led total orders downward.
Total durable goods orders were expected to rise 0.3% in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation
between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.

Outside of the transportation sector, new orders were off 0.4% (+2.3 y/y),
falling 4.4% since a September peak. Machinery orders declined 1.8% (-5.2% y/y),
down 10.5% since a June peak. Orders for computers & electronic products
slipped 0.1% (+5.8% y/y), off 2.9% since an August high. Fabricated metal orders
declined 2.0% (+3.0% y/y) for the second straight month. These declines were
offset by a 4.1% rebound (4.4% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment &
appliances which came after a 5.1% drop. Orders are 5.2% lower than the
September high. A 1.0% recovery (0.8% y/y) in primary metals orders left them,
nevertheless, 6.8% below the September peak.