In his coverage of the popular attitudes toward the amendment, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver points out that most voters who say they will vote for the measure change their minds when they learn that, in addition to same-sex marriage, Amendment One will also ban civil unions and domestic partnerships.

"Opponents of the amendment had an uphill battle in convincing voters that it was anything other than a referendum on gay marriage, even though it does go a lot further than that," said pollster Tom Jensen, who works for a firm that supported the anti-amendment camp.

His own polling shows an even larger gap between the two sides than the one estimated by nonpartisan polling organizations.

Advocates for equality can find some cold comfort in the results of a Gallup poll released today which show that national support for same-sex marriage is at 50%. Though that figure is slightly lower than last year (53%), it does mark the second time in Gallup's history that at least half of all participants responded positively to that question.