Long-term energy forecasts just launched by ExxonMobil and BP foresee two decades of robust economic growth, accelerating growth in energy efficiency, and a gradual shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix. But these positive trends are not enough to put us on a trajectory to avert damaging climate change. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate our energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions will rise inexorably. The low-carbon economy still lies somewhere far behind the horizon.

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