U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak continues his stretch run in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary and now
trails incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter by a too-close-to-call 44 - 42 percent among likely
Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 14
percent of Democrats are undecided, and 29 percent of those who name a candidate say they
might change their mind.

The Democratic winner is likely to face Republican Pat Toomey who holds a 60 - 9
percent lead over Peg Luksik among likely Republican primary voters.

In the Democratic primary for Governor, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato gets
38 percent of likely voters, trailed by state Auditor General Jack Wagner with 11 percent, State
Sen. Tony Williams with 10 percent and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel with 9
percent. But 32 percent remain undecided and 56 percent of those choosing a candidate say they
might change their mind.

The Democratic winner seems destined to face Attorney General Tom Corbett who leads
State Rep. Sam Rohrer 57 - 14 percent in the GOP gubernatorial primary, compared to his 58 - 7
percent lead in Quinnipiac University's April poll.

The Specter-Sestak race has narrowed from a 47 - 39 percent Specter lead May 4 and a
53 - 32 percent Specter lead April 7.

"Sen. Arlen Specter has a history of winning close elections and he'll need that to continue
because his once commanding lead is gone. His margin over Sestak is too close to call," said Peter
A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The intangibles are clearly on Sestak's side. He has the momentum and the anti-
incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger," Brown added.
"Troubling for Specter is that one in seven likely primary voters are undecided and incumbents -
especially 30-year incumbents who have switched parties - rarely get much of the undecided
vote."

Specter does better among women, 44 - 38 percent, while men go 47 percent for Sestak
and 44 percent for Specter.

Specter's support is slightly weaker than Sestak's as 34 percent of the incumbent's voters
say they might change their mind, compared to 25 percent of the challenger's backers.

Specter remains better known than Sestak, with a 50 - 33 percent favorability. By
comparison, Sestak gets a 42 - 10 percent favorability, with 46 percent saying they don't know
enough about him to have an opinion.

"Faced with these numbers, Pennsylvania TV viewers can expect to see as many television
commercials as Specter can afford in the final week, trying to convince that 46 percent who don't
know enough about Sestak that he is not their kind of guy," said Brown.

Onorato's lead over the rest of the Democratic gubernatorial field is little changed from
last week when he received 36 percent, Hoeffel 9 percent, Wagner and Williams 8 percent each.

"Dan Onorato's lead over the Democratic field hasn't really grown over the past week, but
with only seven days until the actual voting, his chances of winning the Democratic nomination
for Governor certainly are better than the rest," said Brown. "Although more than half of likely
voters say they might change their mind, the odds that enough of them do, and all go to the same
candidate other than Onorato seem very, very small."

From May 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 945 Pennsylvania likely Democratic
primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, and 995 likely Republican
primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The sample is drawn from registered
voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the
nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.

1a. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote
for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided q1a)
As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato, Wagner,
Williams or Hoeffel? (This table includes "Leaners".)

TREND: If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you
vote for Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tony Williams or Joe Hoeffel? (If undecided
q1a) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Onorato,
Wagner, Williams or Hoeffel? (This table includes "Leaners".)

2a. If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today,
would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2a) As of today,
would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This table
includes "Leaners".)

TREND: If the Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held
today, would you vote for Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak? (If undecided q2a) As of
today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Specter or Sestak? (This
table includes "Leaners".)

1b. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote
for Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, would you say
that you lean a little more toward Corbett or Rohrer? (This table includes
"Leaners".)

TREND: If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you
vote for Tom Corbett or Sam Rohrer? (If undecided q1b) As of today, do you lean
a little more toward Corbett or Rohrer? (This table includes "Leaners".)

2b. If the Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today,
would you vote for Pat Toomey or Peg Luksik? (If undecided q2b) As of today,
would you say that you lean a little more toward Toomey or Luksik? (This table
includes "Leaners".)