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Abstract

Making the right decisions at critical turning points can be the difference between victory and defeat. The Navy asked RAND if it could identify “forks in the road” — future decision points that may require a significant change in direction for the service. After defining the attributes of such forks in the road, the authors use an interview process and an opportunity-risk analysis to identify nine forks that the Navy should consider first. These nine diverse potential forks, everything from modularity to laser weapons, were followed by descriptions of two high-risk forks-unmanned vehicles and space-based capabilities that nonetheless could yield such high payoffs that they should be considered. The authors conclude with an appendix that traces the chronology of two historical forks.

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