Ex-Expatriate who was living in Muscat, Oman, Middle East for too long, but still blogs about the place.
Biased and usually irreverent opinions on life and business goings on in The Sultanate of Oman, a quiet and beautiful country bordering the Indian Ocean.

Monday, June 28, 2010

It struck me that there is a growing marketing opportunity in Oman to cater for "Halal Holidays" amongst an increasingly affluent regional and even global Muslim community, looking at the comments section in this piece from Abu Dhabi newspaper The National.

As a Muslim couple, our first holiday to Europe last year could have been a lot more pleasant and enjoyable had it not been for the lack of some very basic services like water, prayer facilities and halal eateries....The fun of shopping and visiting too was hugely taken out of our visit in our frantic searches for a mosque or prayer room wherever we went; our solution was shortening our visits and restricting them to areas around a prayer facility; a boring proposition for visitors.A famous shopping center in Manchester had one very tiny prayer room for all religions and both sexes; I dared not enter! My unlucky husband whereas had to pray with an unknown female next to him and a picture of Virgin Mary (may Allah be pleased with her) behind him!And of course from omnivores, we turned to herbivores all throughout out visit. Even being a herbivore was tough enough as we searched for eateries that did not serve pork and alcohol.All in all, we still managed to enjoy the visit as much as we could, meeting some very wonderful people and carrying back many treasured moments.Nevertheless, I eagerly look forward to my next visit to Europe but I truly hope that it would be without a large cup sticking out of my handbag!

The segment also highlights the benefits of the more interactive approach to news that is developing world-wide. Its hard to comment back to a print article!

Fits in with the apparent problem that there is no Government Standard here applied to the use of the term 'Halal'. Still, consumer protectionism IS in its infancy here, after all.

But as well as attracting the 'sun, sand and sangria' western tourists, I do think there is a big market for Muslim compliant luxury holidays. A hint for Blue City?

New Biography of Zanzibar's Princess Salme gets good reviewsInteresting review of a new biography called "The Sultan's Shadow" in Salon.

"The Sultan's Shadow:" The runaway princess of ZanzibarThe story of a royal rebel and the Arab slave trade makes for popular history at its best in "The Sultan's Shadow"

When the famous British explorer Richard Francis Burton sailed into the harbor of Zanzibar in 1856, he was intoxicated by the way "earth, sea and sky, all seemed wrapped in a soft and sensuous repose." Clove-scented, fringed by palms and sapphire waters, this large island off the coast of East Africa was and is famous for its beauty; in the West, its very name conjures the romance of far horizons and undreamed-of adventures.

Closer up, Burton and his traveling companion, Hanning Speke, found a motley crush of nautical traffic floating in what Christiane Bird, author of "The Sultan's Shadow: One Family's Rule at the Crossroads of East and West," describes as a "a thick, sloshing bath of filth" studded with human corpses. The bodies were the detritus of the East African slave trade, tossed overboard so that slave merchants wouldn't have to pay a per-head fee for their cargo after docking. "The Sultan's Shadow" is in part a history of that deadly trade, which was largely run by Arabs, and in part the story of the royal family that presided over Zanzibar as the island rose to power and prosperity, and then fell before European colonialism in the 19th century....

I think its fair to say Oman has not yet generally come to terms with its part in the regional and global Slave trade, especially in Zanzibar, with nothing about this taught to Omani students here, and most Omani commentators I've seen on the forums in almost violent and vitriolic denial. That Oman was only the second to last country in the world to outlaw slavery (when HM took over in '72); or that Zanzibar, long part of Oman's East African empire, was a key slaving hub for decades; or indeed that the previous Sultan owned Slaves himself in the late 60's, are facts usually ignored.

See a related BBC article on Zanzibar's slave trade, and the atrocities that occured during the revolution in 1964 too.

UPDATE: I'd encourage interested readers (and ever ignorant OMR) to read Wikipedia's Slavery entry. This is a huge topic that has been going since history began, and Oman's part in the slave trades, both "Islamic/Arab" and the more commonly associated relatively modern "Euro/Americas" trade - even via their control of Zanzibar - is peripheral and even then mainly as middlemen businessmen. But Oman's role was there. Oman (amongst dozens of other countries) allowed slavery and considered it a legitimate business for considerable time, and the issue leads into the much bigger question of what constitutes human rights. This would be an excellent addition to the Omani curriculum at high school level, IMHO, to encourage debate and consideration of these issues. The absence of Islamic or Arab abolitionists in the record is a vexing issue, however.

The review continued:

...Arab trading in African slaves evolved out of ancient African tribal customs used to pay off personal debts and to profit from prisoners of war. "It began a millennium before the West's," Bird writes of the practice, "and continued for more than a century after." But it was really only after the international market for ivory and spices took off that the East African slave trade succeeded in devastating Central and East Africa. Many more slaves were needed to run plantations and transport tusks, so slavers began to provoke tribal wars (to generate prisoners). Eventually they simply raided and razed entire villages, driving their captives so mercilessly to market that most of them died before reaching it.

Bird found Salme's autobiography evocative but frustratingly circumspect -- not to mention blinkered. Passages of "Memoirs of an Arabian Princess" defend "Oriental" slavery against the attacks of Western abolitionists, arguing that, as practiced by her own people, the institution was not only more benevolent than its American counterpart, but also kinder than capitalism's treatment of its underclass. ...

Saturday, June 26, 2010

I must say, local blogger and highly recompensed fly-boy Jet Driver called it right on his latest post: That's it this year in Oman folks, especially General-Government-achievement-wise.

The summer is here.

It's now officially Fcuking hot and humid for the next 3 months. As a result, everybody who can, basically goes on leave. Overseas. (I leave the cool temperate beauty of Salalah and its monsoon [aka the Khareef] to the Saudi', Dhofaris, and middle-class Batinah-coast Omanis.)

Along with the heat, mid August brings Ramadan. Great if you are Muslim and need to atone your sins. But also a time that along with the holy month finds all Omani bars, alcohol bulk stores, and decent restaurants closed for a month, even if you're not a Muslim. [Exceptions: Brave tourists (or rich residents) within reach of a 5 star hotel room mini-bar, or those with privileged access to an ROP or Omani Military bar which (naturally) remains open].

And after that, come the vast public week-long Eid holidays (parts one and two), plus National Day holidays, and then we are all just cruising down to pagan holidays and the New Year trying to spend our MONE approved Budgets.

And, that's it for 2010.

Omani public sector productivity has either been attained already, or that's all she wrote til January. The Private sector will struggle on, but even for them it's mainly a survival game, whipping the contractors to deliver..

I must confess: Undercover Dragon and Ms Dragon will be off too. To a nameless southern European destination (albeit via Switzerland) where the champagne and canapes flow, and the agreeable locals gladly accept visa/mastercard, topless sunbathing, ridiculous gaudy (branded) attire and large yachts, in equal abandon.

So, good luck and sympathy to anyone staying behind (such as stalwart expat blogger just back from vacation Muscat Mutterer).

I'm off in a couple of days, accompanied (naturally) by Ms. Dragon and her incredibly voluminous luggage, but I will try to keep up, blog-post-wise.

Re-entry to our gorgeous jewel of a Sultanate (if my employers are as generous as they promise wrt offers of increased treasure) will be in late August inshallah.

Summer in Oman is the time when all sensible Expatriates assess their opportunities to take the advice occasionally offered by so many ignorant inbred talentless never-worked-a-day-in-my-life Omani 20-something wannabes to 'leave if you don't like it here'...

Well, ... maybe we will. Let's see the offers. Abu Dhabi and Qatar are throwing some serious cash on the table of late.

Thankfully I have several 1st world passports, education, and a CV that enables me to move. My heart would always be left with the hard working Omani underclass: Indonesian maids*, Bangladeshi and Afghani laborers, and Filipino and Indian workers that don't have that easy option. And let's not forget the domestic underclass and still silent majority of non-wasta, hard-working, Omani working class and lower middle class, providing for their huge, extended, unemployed/under-employed families and (generally), up to their eyeballs in debt.

(* Especially the ones you see in the malls on a Friday afternoon: dragged around by their employers on what should be a day off, shepherding 7 or 8 screaming and spoiled children, and looking so desperately sad and depressingly empty in their body language and downward glances.)

Meanwhile:

Blue CityEveryone (who cares) is awaiting the Omani Supreme Court decision on Blue City's project ownership and (more importantly) control, due in the next few days. Watch this space.

NutcasesThe Israelis have not yet bombed Iran - thankfully. Iran's leadership (and Saudi) meanwhile keep trying to encourage them to do so. Hopefully they will listen to America (and everyone else) and keep their rattling sabres in the scabbard.

Who doesn't like a train?It seems someone in Oman likes trains, and a whole lot. Laying tracks for trains may not make economic sense, but, after all, at least we can still have them built by Indian coolies, just like the Americans did 200 years ago (although their exploited coolies were Chinese, not Indian, and it was all paid for by private investors). Check out the proposed train route map on Muscat Mutterings. Can anyone explain the rationale for this?

BG Group Abu Butabul exit and GCC GasSpeaking of uneconomic, my people have finished crushing the numbers on BG's recent exit from 8 TCF of gas in Block 60.

It seems while BG Group apparently could just about make a buck from the Abu Butabul gas field, with a gas price of around $2.25 per Mscf, their successes in Brazil and Australia mean they had better things to risk their money on. So they walked.

My in-the-know-technical people infer that - contrary to my rant earlier - actually BG's exit makes it even better for BP in block 61 with their even bigger Khazzan/Makarem fields, as the Government now has few other options, medium term gagging-for-gas as it seems to be.

Muscat Confidential continues to call for a true open-trade pan-GCC gas network as the only sensible option for the good of all - gas customers (Omani, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain) and gas suppliers (Qatar, Sausi, UAE, Kuwait, Oman...).

For god's sake guys, a real market price for spot gas, with volume combined with liquidity, would have so many benefits for all of you!- if you have gas, you can price it and sell it (if you want to)- if you need gas you can buy it (if you want too)- if you subsidise power (as you all do...) you can price that subsidy.- if you have influential gas buyers (like Oman Methanol) you can demonstrate what the gas you are giving them is actually worth- if you have spare export LNG plant capacity (like Oman) you can sell spot LNG cargoes to China/Japan/Korea if the price margin is right- if you have a need for gas generated power you can get the gas (if you pay)- if you own a piece of the commiunal pipeline network you can get income- if you have EOR projects that need gas, they can get it

The market will take care of the rest. (long vs short, big suppliers vs distributerd demand). If Qatar can supply gas cheaper and more efficient;y to Oman than Iran, or BP, great. Let's at least find out.) DME can provide the hedging, Qatar the money, and the rest of us the demand.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Dearest readers. I can be a LAZY dragon sometimes. Although apparently I was in Spain...

There was just no decent news, and it was HOT, and... Nawras have decided to block all encrypted VPNs for some reason, so I had to go back to hated OmanHel. This is the life.

I was also busy at work, earning treasure for my lords and masters at the Ministry. They fortunately took my advice about avoiding the British Petroleum call option, at least for the moment, and saved a few squillion as BP's share price subsequently proceeded to continue to plummet harder than an oil drenched pelican. This is how one earns a crust, dear friends. (But, if you're interested, next week may be a good time to strike, if you're rich, diversified and of a speculative mood.)

So, what's been happening here in Oman?

Well, the Abu Dhabi royal family sorted out their ownership of Blue City's most influential bonds, and celebrated with a mini-PR campaign celebrating the news in Abu Dhabi royal family controlled newspaper The National. Naturally. All great news for Oman, obviously, and the press flurry included a delightful puff piece by normally quite solid reporter Bradley Hope on the tribulations of poor CEO Richard Russel and how it was all doomed before he even started. Wonderful.

More to come next week on Blue City, as there is lots of stuff settling down behind the scenes on-going, what with Bahraini co-initiators of the project AAJH now backed by also rather flush Qatar, Blue City forced to post loads of interesting documents and letters by the insurers of Anees' vast debt, and AAJH securing an injunction from the Omani Supreme Court while the lawyers do battle again as to who owns the almost bankrupt development holding company...

Al-Zawbaa Company (LLC) represented by Yassir Al Salami and his Associates Lawyers and Legal Consultancy office.

(Secondly) to look into the request for a stay of the ruling presented in the appeal No. 95/2010 in Verdict No. 349/2008 by appellant: Al-Zawbaa Company (LLC) represented by attorney Yassir bin Obaid bin Mosa Al Salami from Yassir Al Salami and his Associates Lawyers and Legal Consultancy Office.

(Thirdly) to look into the request for a stay of the ruling presented in the appeal No. 98/2010 in Verdict No. 349/2008 by appellant:AAJ Holdings Company represented by attorney Ez Al Deen Muhammad Othman Al Sharif from Salim Al Suneidy and Ali Al Kasby and Associates Lawyers and Legal Consultancy Office.

After review of appeal papers, it is discerned that the grounds on which the request for a stay of the ruling is based are serious. Thereby, it is difficult to remedy the grave danger in case the ruling is performed prior to the decision subject to the appeal. Consequently, a temporary stay of the ruling will be granted, in accordance with Article (245) in the Code of Civil and Commercial Procedure, by all appellants except Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd for its appeal is not accepted due to removing it without a capacity (according to the document by the notary public in the UK which confirms that Mr. John Willoughby Giles Catchpole is the director of Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd, which is different from the appellant, as well as that the power of attorney of the company’s attorney is not signed by Mr. John Willoughby Giles Catchpole. The signature attributed to Mr. John Willoughby is set in a paper independent of the power of attorney, which lessens the validity of it.

For the reasons aforementioned:The court ordered to suspend the ruling of the impugned decision for appellants Al-Zawbaa Company in appeal No. (95/2010) and AAJ Holdings in appeal No. (98/2010), as well as appellant OASIS Middle East Holding Company, Ltd in only appeal No. (90/2010), pending a decision on appeal and the legal proceedings.Rejected the request for a stay of the ruling presented by appellant Oriental and African Strategic Investment Services, Ltd. The request expenses are imposed on the appellant.

So a hint of promise for AAJH. Their new lawyer (Saddam Hussein's ex-defense brief) will now at least get a chance to enhance his reputation.

Photo: HM meets the Emir of Kuwait. The party scene at the Emir's pad near Ras Madrakka is probably not HM's sort-a gig... (ripped form the Observer)

It would probably have been easier for him to meet the Emir of Kuwait while he was on one of his very regular (every few weeks or so) private visits to his shag tranquil palace in the south of Oman coast. It seems the tedious constraints of life in Kuwait are not applied in Oman, so cue boats, broads and booze mango juice in his personal paparazzi-free party pad. He flies straight down in his private jet to lands at PDO's nice new airport in Marmul, apparently.

Who can blame him?

In oil and Gas news, yet another new operator decided to quit Oman, with Aussie battlers Oilex deciding to exit Block 56 in south Oman, claiming bigger fish to fry. Sad. They have such cute accents.

HE Jashmi, Undersec at the MOG, was quoted in Reuters today that, surprise surprise, 100% Omani Government owned and EP Operator wannabe Oman Oil was "in discussions with the MOG" on taking over the block where BG has proven has lots of (expensive, hard to produce) gas.

As the Deputy Chairman of Oman Oil Co is also, as it happens, the Minister of Oil and Gas, HE Dr. Rumhy, that must have been a rather schizophrenic discussion... LOL. Like I said, expect a deal involving using the gas to develop some heavy oil elsewhere soon... You heard it here first folks.

Finally,Is Israel about to hit Iran? There are reliable reports they have secured a Saudi air corridor. There does seem to be a concerning flurry of diplomacy readers.

I do hope not... But then one can hardly predict the Israelis... Advice: Avoid Thumrait and Masirah, and secured high bits of Mussandam, for the next few weeks.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

First, the Abu Dhabi Royal family confirmed this week that Essdar Capital, one of their many investment arms, were successful in acquiring more than 99% of the outstanding A class secured Blue City 1 bonds at about 63 cents in the dollar - quite a premium for a seriously distressed sale, but I guess they can afford the risk. (thanks for all the emails too)

Dubai company gains control of Blue CityBradley Hope, The National

Last Updated: June 09. 2010 9:06PM UAE / June 9. 2010 5:06PM GMT

Essdar Capital, an investment company based in Dubai, said yesterday it had obtained almost all of the senior debt of the struggling Blue City property development in Oman and would take control of the project.

“What it gives us is significant control over decision making on the project,” said Suketu Sanghvi, the senior managing director of structuring and investments at Essdar. “If any restructuring needs to be done, the project needs to be revived or business plans need to be changed, we can manage that as the owner of the Class A bonds.”

...

Essdar is majority-owned by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed and Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed, members of Abu Dhabi’s Royal Family.

Mr Sanghvi said the project was not yet out of difficulties. The first move Essdar would make would be to meet with management about the project’s future, aiming to focus on its hotel and tourism components earlier than planned in the original business strategy.

Things may take a few months to sort out, with the legal complications, and the battle between Cyclone owners HH Haitham and Anees Zedjali and AAJH still going through the courts. (although AAJH did get an injunction from the high court in their favour a couppe of weeks ago, albeit with no legal implications either way for eventual judgement). Watch this space.

Meanwhile, the sky is not fallingRumours and panicked emails are doing the rounds, alleging another cyclone is coming to Oman. This rumour is just not true, and is a regular Gonu anniversary phenomena, especially given the recent cyclone Phet.

What is true is that some computer models indicated a possibility for the elevated sea temperatures to generate a tropical cyclonic (this just means a low pressure spinning thing) storm of the west coast on India, but so far that hasn't happened.

Who knows? I'll keep an eye on it. The rains and hail in the Oman Mountains these past few days are not related in any way to another secret cyclone, BTW. The latest sat image from the professionals at the JTWC is reassuring.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

News was circulating last week that British Gas BG Group - who successfully bid for Block 61 60 in the North-East of Oman - had failed to reach agreement with the Ministry of Oil and Gas on a gas price, and so have pulled out of Oman and walked away.

Block 61 60 was a piece of Oman relinquished by PDO shareholders 4 years ago. In the block there was already a big discovered gas field, estimated to hold around 8TCF of gas in the rock, I'm told. That's potentially a lot of gas.

Map: BG got the long thin red coloured gas field next to Saudi. BP has the red gas field to the north-east of BG's one. Map ripped from Tethis Oil press release.

The Government owned 100% of the gas rights, but there was only 1 (very expensive) well and the results were disappointing - PDO couldn't get it to flow very well. So the Ministry of Oil and Gas decided to get an overseas company in to try and do better, but without the MOG needing to contribute a dime. Sweet.

BG bid and was awarded the 1500km2 area to see what they could do, with a $150 million "work programme" that involved new seismic, studying things and drilling 8 wells.

BG did just as they promised, and while my sources say they confirmed PDO's discovery, they couldn't get the wells to produce very well either. The rates were apparently all between 1 - 8 million cubic feet a day, and also produced a lot of liquid HC called condensate which is worth as much as oil.

The key problem was that their deal meant they had to agree a gas price with the Omani Government before they could go ahead and develop it. This they failed to do, with the Government offering too little and/or BG asking too much. I haven't yet got the exact prices and economics, but my people are crunching the numbers and I'll update you next week. It could be the deal was just too much work for too little reward as far as BG was concerned. They have plenty of other things to invest in elsewhere.

So BG has walked, presumably taking with them their offer to set up their regional ME base in Oman. BG did not respond to my requests for comments.

Instead, I'm told the Government's fledgling Oil and Gas Company, Oman Oil E&P, will be given the job of producing the gas. That means they'll get to keep the wells BG drilled, plus all their reports and stuff, all for free!

I wonder if having Oman Oil take the project over was the plan all along? This way the locals get an almost economic development on a silver platter, with all the risks removed, and a nice little sand pit to play in while they learn the ropes. The Government could also force Petroleum Development Oman (who apparently need lots of gas to produce their oil) to buy the gas at a price that, by definition, makes it economic.

It won't be easy even then I'm informed, as that valuable condensate could make the gas rate from the wells drop even more as the pressure drops and the wells become sort of blocked with fluid.

I also wonder how this bodes for embattled BP, who did a similar gas deal with an old PDO discovery (except for a rumoured 650 million!) in nearby block 60 61, where there is apparently potential for a lot more gas. They have a similar 'lets talk later about the price' deal with the Government.

...OmanDuring 2008 and 2009, BG Group drilled seven wells to target depth on Block 60, which contains the Abu Butabul gas and condensate discovery. The Group has carried out sufficient appraisal work to delineate the main section of the field and no further appraisal wells are planned to be drilled.

Focus now shifts to finding optimum ways to develop the field. Abu Butabul is a tight gas discovery and the ability to get gas to flow effectively and efficiently will be key to determining commercial viability. The Group is aiming to move to project sanction in 2010 and targeting production start-up from the field by 2012.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Cyclone PhetIn the end, at least as far as Muscat is concerned, Cyclone Phet was nowhere near as nasty as Gonu, neither in duration, wind speed, rain nor impact. For the town of Sur it was probably worse, as Sur was directly under the eye of the storm as it grazed the eastern most tip of Oman. Sur had a record of over 40cm of water recorded. The town was mostly underwater by Friday pm.

And pity the unfortunate villages of Quriat and Tiwi, hit hard by both Gonu and now by Phet.

DeathsThe latest official number of deaths due to Cyclone Phet was 24, as of this morning's Times of Oman. The low death toll was helped by the cyclone pretty much missing the more densely populated Batinah coast (of which Muscat is the south-eastern part); the advanced warning being taken more seriously by offials and populace alike; and learnings from Gonu. The official evacuation of Masirah Island and the Eastern Coast saved a lot of lives.

Official deaths from Gonu were just 49, but this number was an early one, never officially updated, and reliable unofficial numbers of Gonu deaths range from at least 500 to over 1500. So, it does seem on this score Phet was a lot better than Gonu.

This time most of the deaths were due to local people who were drowned in Wadis (either unknowingly there or stupidly going to watch the floods). I guess many locals surprisingly don't know what a flash flood is. Perhaps this is a side effect of urbanisation. A few more were killed attempting to drive cars across flowing wadis, in the mistaken belief that a Toyota 4x4 (or even Echo) is the hydrodynamic equal of an amphibious 50 tonne tank.

Photo: A Russian T90 can cross standing water. Note the many features that are unlike a Toyota Echo.

A few other unfortunate people got electricuted, probably caused by the useless standards of most Omani houses' electrical systems, and the fact that windows and roofs here are designed or at least 'engineered' (and I use the term loosely) to be ... er, sand proof, rather than water tight.

Oil & GasEven Gonu had little impact on oil production, but the Phet effect was even less. My sources in PDO, and official statements. confirm oil production was unaffected. There was a pause of a couple of days of oil export, from crude tankers being able to load because of the 4m swells, but crude oil exports resumed this afternoon as normal. There was no real damage to any key oil infrastructure. Petroleum Development Oman had learned a lot from Gonu and was apparently well prepared.

The 3 big LNG trains at Sur were shut down just in time. I don't know the extent of the damage, but as long as nothing big happened, there will be no impact on LNG export volumes to Korea either. The 3 trains (2 Oman LNG, 1 Khalhat LNG) have 20%++ excess capacity (their capacity is constrained by available gas supply provided by the Government) and as a result will be able to catch up for any shut down quite quickly.

Gas supply to the coast and power generation was also not impacted.

CommunicationPeople who watch Oman TV and read Arabic got a few days notice and almost constant updates (including video footage) once the cyclone started to impact Oman. During Gonu the Government seemed to think that not telling anybody anything would somehow ... I don't know, make it all go away or something? This time officials seemed willing to accept that mother nature was bending us over the table.

But a LOT of the expat community knew almost nothing about the coming cyclone until Wednesday or even Thursday. This state of affairs needs correcting fast Ministry of Information. At least (the now 2 one State, one private) English radio stations were giving regular updates (if pretty bland). But anything in Hindi, Urdu and Tagalog - niet.

The Meterological Office could do to find someone with actual fluent English to go on radio. Official English TV news every day at 8:30pm may be OK normally, but in a crisis this needs changing to a minute or two hourly. English subtitles would help in general.

That the hit counter here at Muscat Confidential went through the roof (4000+ page views a day vs. a typical day's 1200), presumably represented mainly people desperate just to get news of Cyclone Phet. As such my numbers may more represent the dirth of reliable english language Government info than the core popularity of Muscat Confidential. (But hey, a lot of those visitors ended up joining the excellent MC Facebook fan page, so I'm not complaining.)

Government use of the internet could improve a lot to help get info across, in an age where even semi-smart phones can surf. There was 1 txt in the whole 3 days, just giving phone numbers for search and rescue. 1 lousy text.

Well done to OmanHel and Nawras for keeping the 3G+ networks going all the way through though.

InfrastructureThis was hopefully a damn good wake up call to the Government for getting a move on with completing the long delayed earth works and other projects triggered by the catastrophe of Gonu (it was, afterall, 3 friggin' years ago!). If Phet had hit us full on - as a Cat 1 or 2 Cyclone (while Gonu was just a severe tropical storm) - things would not be so pretty. Let's not even think of a Cat 4 or 5...

Existing dams are inadequate and their slip-ways totally unable to handle the debris and water volume of such storms. In their present state, in a big storm, the dams would be a danger, not a help.

The big wadi crossing motorways are not finished. The main Batinah wadis (Qurm, Adai, Ghubra, etc) have not been turned into proper, deep, concrete lined mega-drainage ditches to the ocean.

People continue to be allowed to build significant new buildings in the major wadis and flood plains because of wasta and ill-defined rules.

The airport could have been closed for a long time, and can the new one being built really handle 300mm per day of rain for 2 or 3 days?

There is little weather-proof core redundancy in the power grid. Etc etc etc.

Oman these days is obviously in a period of world weather when we should expect such cyclones regularly. Gonu was not a 'one in a 100 year' event. We get cyclones now chaps. Better start dealing with it with proper engineering.

Overall - we were just lucky. There remains a huge amount to be done to prepare for the next Cyclone, some of it (like the communications) can be done almost instantly.

It's time to get on with it.

In other news, Essa indeed spent his ghost-written weekly rant on the shameful and incompetent Israeli attack on the Gaza Flotilla. Not on the death toll on the roads, not on the Cyclone, not on the poor state of Omani employment, nor our pitifully poor education system; not on the lack of any meaningful support to Gaza by Oman or in fact by any Arab nation. (note, Hamas is not really a big fan of the Gulf States either). No, not even an incisive view on the imminent largest bankruptcy in Oman's history (Blue City).

He also blames the US for the attack.

People might like to consider the main provider of aid to Gaza: the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA.

... the chief U.N. agency in Gaza is the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA. Love or hate it--and I am no fan--UNRWA, according to its website, is "the main provider of basic services--education, health, relief and social services--to 4.7 million registered Palestine refugees in the Middle East." Many of those Palestinians live in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and the West Bank. But Gaza is the core of this operation. UNRWA‘s headquarters are in Gaza, where 1.1 million Palestinians--the bulk of Gaza's population--are registered on UNRWA's refugee rolls and eligible for its services.

UNRWA gets 98% of its funding from voluntary donations, mostly from U.N. member states. Turkey looks like a great candidate to be a big donor. In 2008 Turkey's economy was ranked by the World Bank as the 17th largest on the planet. Given the Turkish government's professed interest in the welfare of Palestinians, you might suppose that Turkey would be among the top 10 state donors to UNRWA? Or at least the top 20?

Turkey doesn't even make the cut.

The largest donor to UNRWA is the U.S., which in 2009, according to UNRWA's statistics, gave $268 million. Next is the European Commission, which in 2009 gave $232.7 million. Together, the U.S. and E.U. account for almost half of all UNRWA funding. Other major donors include the U.K., Spain, Canada, Japan, Switzerland and Germany. Or, if you want to measure in terms of donations per capita, notes UNRWA on its website, "Scandinavian countries top the list," with Sweden in 2009 giving $48.6 million, Norway $39 million and Denmark $19.9 million.

Among UNRWA's top 20 donors for 2009, there are only two countries from the Middle East: Kuwait, which in 2009 gave $35.5 million, and Saudi Arabia, with $27.6 million....

Friday, June 4, 2010

Sat photo of Phet as it passed near Sur at 2:30 this afternoon... what a huge storm.

Update 9:00pm Friday

Cyclone Phet now safely on its way to Pakistan, and is currently receeding from Muscat, back on a solid NE trajectory, according to the JTWC.

This means the strong winds of the past few hours should be behind us.

HOWEVER - there's a lot a rain that's still making its way down wadis and probably a significant amount of rain still to come, as Phet sends us its backwash, all heavily laden with water; precipitation that will happily fall in the Oman Mountains over the next 24 hrs.

So, take care readers. Update: As Jet Driver points out, there is still some potential for dams to burst and/or be forced to release water suddenly. Wadi-tourists are taking big risks. If you're an adult, well, you're an idiot risking the life of emergency services personnel. If you're an adult taking children to gawk at wadis, you're criminally negligent.

Qurm again flooded like crazy, with CCC and McDonalds experiencing the usual many feet of water. Al Arami didn't even bother with the sandbags. LOL

Well readers. The latest news is as expected - Cyclone Phet has continued to go north, and right now (about 1pm Friday) the eye of the cyclone should be a few hours away from passing over Sur and heading out to sea.

This means the wind should peak here in Muscat around 6-9pm this evening. Heavy rain, though surprisingly still relatively mild winds, is in progress in Muscat.

The rain meanwhile will just keep coming, possibly into Sunday morning. So while things look OK now, this is temporary (as we saw during Gonu) as the ground saturates and the run-off from the mountains moves down, expect flooding in low lying areas and essentially anywhere it flooded during Gonu.

McDonalds in Qurm was still bravely pumping out the burgers late this morning. During Gonu it ended up 10 feet underwater, so this is rather brazen!

Main thing will be if power can be maintained, as this will impact availability of water and AC. Though thankfully the temperature is a lot cooler than when Gonu hit right now, By Monday it'll be HOT.

I haven't heard how bad it got in Sur yet. Anyone in Sur encouraged to give us a comment update (please state time/date).

Meanwhile I'm drinking champagne and watching the weather from a high and dry vantage point. If the power goes though my internet will go out...

Time for the latest update from the JTWC - the Cyclone is again heading closer to Muscat and has attained landfall in Oman. It is somehow sucking in enough wet air to keep going as a cyclone even as it crosses the Omani interior!

It seems Cyclone Phet is trying hard to be the little cyclone that could.

So, keep those hatches battened and don't be deceived by the lack of fury so far.

The full report:

REMARKS:032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 59.1E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERYSHOWS TC 03A HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TRACKAND HAS MAINTAINED TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON ANEYE FEATURE PRESENT IN AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, TC 03A IS CUR-RENTLY MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN OMAN. THE CURRENT FORECASTTRACK KEEPS PHET MOVING SLOWLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONOF OMAN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TOWARD THE BASE OF A SLOWLY-MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, ANALYZED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THECYCLONE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT, AN INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC03A WILL BEGIN TO RE-ORIENT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANTSTEERING INFLUENCE. THEREAFTER, A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILLDEVELOP AND APPROACH THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST BEYOND TAU 48,HELPING TC 03A TO ACCELERATE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECASTPERIOD. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT TC 03A HASBEEN ABLE TO BUFFER ITSELF FROM A MAJORITY OF THE DRY AIR ADVECTINGINTO THE ARABIAN SEA FROM SOUTHERN OMAN, WHICH IN TURN HAS ALLOWEDTC 03A TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGHPHET IS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL REGION OF OMAN, CONTINUED INFLOW OFWARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FLOW, WILL ALLOW PHETTO AVOID RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE COAST BEFORE IT EMERGES BACK IN THENORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WATER, INCREASING INFLOWOF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-DEVELOPMENT,HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, PRE-VENTING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUALLY INDUCING LOWWEAKENING. LANDFALL INTO PAKISTAN AROUND TAU 84 WILL QUICKLY LEAD TOTHE DISSIPATION OF TC 03A BY TAU 96. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THECONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,041500Z AND 042100Z.//NNNN

It's still predicted to skirt the eastern coast over the next 36 hrs (rather than heading to Muscat), bringing Muscat just lots of rain and wind tonight and tomorrow. You can see the extent of the rain clouds will easily encompass Muscat by Friday.

At least a strong turn north has happened, although it may head NW again for a while before (hopefully) heading NNE.

If you're in Muscat, expect rain and (obviously) stay clear of wadis and places that flooded during Gonu. If you live in low-lying parts of Ghubra, Qurm, Ruwi, etc, you should have already moved your cars to high ground! If not, I'd think about doing it now as it'll probably now keep raining until Saturday...

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The latest info from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center has gone back to predicting Cyclone Phet taking an early turn up the coast, making landfall in Oman and heading up to Ras Al Had and then on to Pakistan. The turn has already started it seems too, which is great news.

There may be therefore slightly less need to desperately rush to trample over the other masses engaged in the process of emptying the shelves of Lulu in your attempts to secure the necessities of life (which are apparently potato chips. swiffle long-life cakes, ghee, HFCS, bottled water, 100s of kgs of rice and VIMTO)

If the cyclone does this, Muscat will be spared most of it, with just a bit of strong wind and moderate rain, but nothing at all like Gonu. Masirah Island through to Ras Al Had will be hit hard though, and evacuations there continue in earnest. With half the Cyclone over land it should also start to weaken as its life force of warm ocean and humid sea air is progressively restricted.

At the moment it's very pleasant in Muscat, with cool temperatures and a fresh breeze. There's a bit of a swell in the ocean, but nothing out of the ordinary yet. A nice afternoon.

HM has also chipped in by giving us all a day off on Saturday.

Makes one wish we had this sort of weather more regularly, doesn't it? Cheers.

Tomorrow I'll get around to a review of the Hi! FM comedy night at the Crown Plaza yesterday.

In response to email queries, the model in the previous post was one Miranda Kerr, an Aussie who astute readers may recognise from the wonderful Victoria's Secret catalog. This link shows snaps from the recent Gentleman's Quarterly photo shoot. Recommended.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Never better than a good guess. Latest update has Cyclone Phet missing that well sign posted right hand turn rather badly (hey, it's in Oman after all!) and sliding on through to, errr, here.

Yes, here!

Luckily, by taking the direct route, that giant-air-sucker Phet will be sucking sand rather than moist warm sea air, and will then have to cross the formidable barrier of the Oman Mountains, before heading off to Pakistan.

So, prepare as previously advised: rain and moderate to strong winds. Possibly accompanied by power cuts. It's coming this way.

* Nothing wrong with models per se (in a GQ-Victoria's Secret-esque sense. Those models, well, I confess Muscat Confidential remains a fan) See below, as purchased from a public book store in Oman a few days ago.

actually, the version in the mag was a LOT racier... But this gives you an idea. So much for press censorship in Oman eh?

Photo: Not all models are bad readers, at least in a 'bad' way. See the latest GQ on sale at a bookshop near you.

UPDATEAs indicated previously, the cyclone is now modeled to turn not quite as fast as previously reported. This means Muscat will almost certainly experience heavy rain tomorrow and Friday, with moderate to strong winds (at best - it can still get worse).

Masirah Island and Ras Al Had are being evacuated as a precaution right now. I still don't think its another Gonu, at least not yet, but this will depend on how quickly the cyclone turns and how bad it builds before landfall. It will turn eventually - what the models are struggling to predict (because of a paucity of good data... hmm...) is how sharply and quickly it will turn right.

Wind speeds in the core have already gone up from 90 knots to 120 knots.

Latest predicted track is shown below.

So, stock up on the standard cyclone kit (you're already prepared, right?) Cancel those fishing trips (except for reader OMR, who is encouraged to brave this US/Israeli Military conspiracy), or camping trips, gas up all your cars, and get the candles and batteries ready, etc. You can find lots of advice on earlier posts, How to Love Davy, etc etc.

Basically - prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. It should at least cool the place down and give it a good wash.

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Yes folks, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center another Tropical Cyclone is busy spinning away in the Arabian Ocean and is heading straight for Muscat. The Cyclone is rapidly building in intensity and latest reports had wind speeds of 90knots with gusts up to 110knots.

However, the experts' preferred models currently predict Tropical Cyclone "Phet" (it's a big enough storm to get a name) will encounter a strong westerly wind long before reaching our shores, and will then make a right turn towards Karachi, Pakistan.

The warning report notes that some models show it not turning right as quickly, and that scenario would give us some strong wind and rain on JulyJune 4th and 5th. (see the bold text in the report below). NOTE: even then at this stage it is not a 'Gonu' situation where the storm headed almost directly over Muscat. All the models show it turning right well before coming here. So far.

Here's the warning notice. More updates tomorrow, or you can just visit the JTWC.

REMARKS:020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 60.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 15 NM RAGGED EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS. AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS. THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, GFDN) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (WBAR, NOGAPS, GFS) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE POSSIBLEPROBLEMS WITH BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS THAT ARE DRIVING THE SYSTEMERRONEOUSLY INTO OMAN. GFS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITYSIGNATURE WITH TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WHILENOGAPS HAS RECENTLY JUMPED WEST AND SHOWS SOME INTERACTION OFTHE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. BASED ONTHESE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND THE AVAILABLE DATA, THIS FORECASTFAVORS THE EASTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36.TC 03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//NNNN

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Yes, the big news here and in the region is the incredibly stupid decision of Israel to attack the Turkish based Gaza Aid Flotilla in international waters, in the process killing a significant number (reportedly 16) of essentially unarmed civilians, mostly Turks.

Here is a good analysis by STRATFOR that puts the decision in context, and draws a nice historic analogue to the post war 'Exodus' story that the Zionists used to play the same trick on Britain that the Palestinians have just successfully played on Israel.

I can't wait to see Essa's editorial next week... I wonder what it will be about?

Flotillas and the Wars of Public OpinionBy George FriedmanMay 31st 2010

On Sunday, Israeli naval forces intercepted the ships of a Turkish nongovernmental organization (NGO) delivering humanitarian supplies to Gaza. Israel had demanded that the vessels not go directly to Gaza but instead dock in Israeli ports, where the supplies would be offloaded and delivered to Gaza. The Turkish NGO refused, insisting on going directly to Gaza. Gunfire ensued when Israeli naval personnel boarded one of the vessels, and a significant number of the passengers and crew on the ship were killed or wounded.

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon charged that the mission was simply an attempt to provoke the Israelis. That was certainly the case. The mission was designed to demonstrate that the Israelis were unreasonable and brutal. The hope was that Israel would be provoked to extreme action, further alienating Israel from the global community and possibly driving a wedge between Israel and the United States. The operation’s planners also hoped this would trigger a political crisis in Israel.

A logical Israeli response would have been avoiding falling into the provocation trap and suffering the political repercussions the Turkish NGO was trying to trigger. Instead, the Israelis decided to make a show of force. The Israelis appear to have reasoned that backing down would demonstrate weakness and encourage further flotillas to Gaza, unraveling the Israeli position vis-à-vis Hamas. In this thinking, a violent interception was a superior strategy to accommodation regardless of political consequences. Thus, the Israelis accepted the bait and were provoked.

The ‘Exodus’ ScenarioIn the 1950s, an author named Leon Uris published a book called “Exodus.” Later made into a major motion picture, Exodus told the story of a Zionist provocation against the British. In the wake of World War II, the British — who controlled Palestine, as it was then known — maintained limits on Jewish immigration there. Would-be immigrants captured trying to run the blockade were detained in camps in Cyprus. In the book and movie, Zionists planned a propaganda exercise involving a breakout of Jews — mostly children — from the camp, who would then board a ship renamed the Exodus. When the Royal Navy intercepted the ship, the passengers would mount a hunger strike. The goal was to portray the British as brutes finishing the work of the Nazis. The image of children potentially dying of hunger would force the British to permit the ship to go to Palestine, to reconsider British policy on immigration, and ultimately to decide to abandon Palestine and turn the matter over to the United Nations.

There was in fact a ship called Exodus, but the affair did not play out precisely as portrayed by Uris, who used an amalgam of incidents to display the propaganda war waged by the Jews. Those carrying out this war had two goals. The first was to create sympathy in Britain and throughout the world for Jews who, just a couple of years after German concentration camps, were now being held in British camps. Second, they sought to portray their struggle as being against the British. The British were portrayed as continuing Nazi policies toward the Jews in order to maintain their empire. The Jews were portrayed as anti-imperialists, fighting the British much as the Americans had.

It was a brilliant strategy. By focusing on Jewish victimhood and on the British, the Zionists defined the battle as being against the British, with the Arabs playing the role of people trying to create the second phase of the Holocaust. The British were portrayed as pro-Arab for economic and imperial reasons, indifferent at best to the survivors of the Holocaust. Rather than restraining the Arabs, the British were arming them. The goal was not to vilify the Arabs but to villify the British, and to position the Jews with other nationalist groups whether in India or Egypt rising against the British.

The precise truth or falsehood of this portrayal didn’t particularly matter. For most of the world, the Palestine issue was poorly understood and not a matter of immediate concern. The Zionists intended to shape the perceptions of a global public with limited interest in or understanding of the issues, filling in the blanks with their own narrative. And they succeeded.

The success was rooted in a political reality. Where knowledge is limited, and the desire to learn the complex reality doesn’t exist, public opinion can be shaped by whoever generates the most powerful symbols. And on a matter of only tangential interest, governments tend to follow their publics’ wishes, however they originate. There is little to be gained for governments in resisting public opinion and much to be gained by giving in. By shaping the battlefield of public perception, it is thus possible to get governments to change positions.

In this way, the Zionists’ ability to shape global public perceptions of what was happening in Palestine — to demonize the British and turn the question of Palestine into a Jewish-British issue — shaped the political decisions of a range of governments. It was not the truth or falsehood of the narrative that mattered. What mattered was the ability to identify the victim and victimizer such that global opinion caused both London and governments not directly involved in the issue to adopt political stances advantageous to the Zionists. It is in this context that we need to view the Turkish flotilla.

The Turkish Flotilla to GazaThe Palestinians have long argued that they are the victims of Israel, an invention of British and American imperialism. Since 1967, they have focused not so much on the existence of the state of Israel (at least in messages geared toward the West) as on the oppression of Palestinians in the occupied territories. Since the split between Hamas and Fatah and the Gaza War, the focus has been on the plight of the citizens of Gaza, who have been portrayed as the dispossessed victims of Israeli violence.

The bid to shape global perceptions by portraying the Palestinians as victims of Israel was the first prong of a longtime two-part campaign. The second part of this campaign involved armed resistance against the Israelis. The way this resistance was carried out, from airplane hijackings to stone-throwing children to suicide bombers, interfered with the first part of the campaign, however. The Israelis could point to suicide bombings or the use of children against soldiers as symbols of Palestinian inhumanity. This in turn was used to justify conditions in Gaza. While the Palestinians had made significant inroads in placing Israel on the defensive in global public opinion, they thus consistently gave the Israelis the opportunity to turn the tables. And this is where the flotilla comes in.

The Turkish flotilla aimed to replicate the Exodus story or, more precisely, to define the global image of Israel in the same way the Zionists defined the image that they wanted to project. As with the Zionist portrayal of the situation in 1947, the Gaza situation is far more complicated than as portrayed by the Palestinians. The moral question is also far more ambiguous. But as in 1947, when the Zionist portrayal was not intended to be a scholarly analysis of the situation but a political weapon designed to define perceptions, the Turkish flotilla was not designed to carry out a moral inquest.

Instead, the flotilla was designed to achieve two ends. The first is to divide Israel and Western governments by shifting public opinion against Israel. The second is to create a political crisis inside Israel between those who feel that Israel’s increasing isolation over the Gaza issue is dangerous versus those who think any weakening of resolve is dangerous.

The Geopolitical Fallout for IsraelIt is vital that the Israelis succeed in portraying the flotilla as an extremist plot. Whether extremist or not, the plot has generated an image of Israel quite damaging to Israeli political interests. Israel is increasingly isolated internationally, with heavy pressure on its relationship with Europe and the United States.

In all of these countries, politicians are extremely sensitive to public opinion. It is difficult to imagine circumstances under which public opinion will see Israel as the victim. The general response in the Western public is likely to be that the Israelis probably should have allowed the ships to go to Gaza and offload rather than to precipitate bloodshed. Israel’s enemies will fan these flames by arguing that the Israelis prefer bloodshed to reasonable accommodation. And as Western public opinion shifts against Israel, Western political leaders will track with this shift.

The incident also wrecks Israeli relations with Turkey, historically an Israeli ally in the Muslim world with longstanding military cooperation with Israel. The Turkish government undoubtedly has wanted to move away from this relationship, but it faced resistance within the Turkish military and among secularists. The new Israeli action makes a break with Israel easy, and indeed almost necessary for Ankara.

With roughly the population of Houston, Texas, Israel is just not large enough to withstand extended isolation, meaning this event has profound geopolitical implications.

Public opinion matters where issues are not of fundamental interest to a nation. Israel is not a fundamental interest to other nations. The ability to generate public antipathy to Israel can therefore reshape Israeli relations with countries critical to Israel. For example, a redefinition of U.S.-Israeli relations will have much less effect on the United States than on Israel. The Obama administration, already irritated by the Israelis, might now see a shift in U.S. public opinion that will open the way to a new U.S.-Israeli relationship disadvantageous to Israel.

The Israelis will argue that this is all unfair, as they were provoked. Like the British, they seem to think that the issue is whose logic is correct. But the issue actually is, whose logic will be heard? As with a tank battle or an airstrike, this sort of warfare has nothing to do with fairness. It has to do with controlling public perception and using that public perception to shape foreign policy around the world. In this case, the issue will be whether the deaths were necessary. The Israeli argument of provocation will have limited traction.

Internationally, there is little doubt that the incident will generate a firestorm. Certainly, Turkey will break cooperation with Israel. Opinion in Europe will likely harden. And public opinion in the United States — by far the most important in the equation — might shift to a “plague-on-both-your-houses” position.

While the international reaction is predictable, the interesting question is whether this evolution will cause a political crisis in Israel. Those in Israel who feel that international isolation is preferable to accommodation with the Palestinians are in control now. Many in the opposition see Israel’s isolation as a strategic threat. Economically and militarily, they argue, Israel cannot survive in isolation. The current regime will respond that there will be no isolation. The flotilla aimed to generate what the government has said would not happen.

The tougher Israel is, the more the flotilla’s narrative takes hold. As the Zionists knew in 1947 and the Palestinians are learning, controlling public opinion requires subtlety, a selective narrative and cynicism. As they also knew, losing the battle can be catastrophic. It cost Britain the Mandate and allowed Israel to survive. Israel’s enemies are now turning the tables. This maneuver was far more effective than suicide bombings or the Intifada in challenging Israel’s public perception and therefore its geopolitical position (though if the Palestinians return to some of their more distasteful tactics like suicide bombing, the Turkish strategy of portraying Israel as the instigator of violence will be undermined).

Israel is now in uncharted waters. It does not know how to respond. It is not clear that the Palestinians know how to take full advantage of the situation, either. But even so, this places the battle on a new field, far more fluid and uncontrollable than what went before. The next steps will involve calls for sanctions against Israel. The Israeli threats against Iran will be seen in a different context, and Israeli portrayal of Iran will hold less sway over the world.

And this will cause a political crisis in Israel. If this government survives, then Israel is locked into a course that gives it freedom of action but international isolation. If the government falls, then Israel enters a period of domestic uncertainty. In either case, the flotilla achieved its strategic mission. It got Israel to take violent action against it. In doing so, Israel ran into its own fist.

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About Me

I used to be an Expatriate working for the Government in Oman as a consultant. Other than that I can't be too specific! But even though I've left, I love the country, its people and many aspects of its culture. I have the deepest respect and admiration for the Sultan of Oman and his clear vision for his country. Email contact: undercover(dot)dragon(at)gmail(dot)com There is also a Muscat Confidential Facebook Fan page - Join now!!

Disclaimer

It is the absolute intent and undeflectable aim of this blog to at all times be in total compliance with the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. Any perception that this is not the case is due to an incorrect and inaccurate interpretation of the contents of this blog. It is intended for Adults with a sense of humour and intelligence - if you do not meet this criteria, go and read something else.