As Sarah Palin wavers, Rick Perry may fill niche

CAMPAIGN 2012

DES MOINES, IA - AUGUST 12: Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shakes hands with fairgoers while visiting the Iowa State Fair August 12, 2011 in Des Moines, Iowa. Although she has not announced any intention of running for president, all of the Republican presidential hopefuls are visiting the fair ahead of Saturday's Iowa Straw Poll to greet voters and engage in traditional Iowa campaigning rituals. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) less

DES MOINES, IA - AUGUST 12: Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shakes hands with fairgoers while visiting the Iowa State Fair August 12, 2011 in Des Moines, Iowa. Although she has not announced any intention ... more

Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

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DES MOINES, IA - AUGUST 12: Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shakes hands with fairgoers while visiting the Iowa State Fair August 12, 2011 in Des Moines, Iowa. Although she has not announced any intention of running for president, all of the Republican presidential hopefuls are visiting the fair ahead of Saturday's Iowa Straw Poll to greet voters and engage in traditional Iowa campaigning rituals. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) less

DES MOINES, IA - AUGUST 12: Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin shakes hands with fairgoers while visiting the Iowa State Fair August 12, 2011 in Des Moines, Iowa. Although she has not announced any intention ... more

Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Getty Images

As Sarah Palin wavers, Rick Perry may fill niche

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Des Moines, Iowa -- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin isn't on the ballot in today's GOP presidential straw poll in Iowa and she isn't stumping for any candidate.

That fueled anticipation Friday that she would make a big announcement at the Iowa State Fair when her One Nation tour bus landed on a day when almost every other candidate was there.

Dozens of journalists swarmed around Palin as she exited the hog barn to hear her say that she ... hasn't decided yet whether she's going to run for president. But she's close, she said. Next month. Definitely.

"Practically speaking," Palin said, "it has to be."

The longer Palin waits, the greater the chance that Texas Gov. Rick Perry - who enters the race today in South Carolina and is scheduled to stump in Iowa on Sunday - could take Palin's place in the hearts of the social conservatives whom Palin and Perry appeal to.

Those conservatives who have flocked around Palin, a conservative evangelical Christian, are likely to dominate the straw poll but same-sex marriage and abortion aren't on the top of the minds of many Iowa voters.

Everyday concerns

While the poll may be an early barometer of how a candidate can build a campaign organization, it doesn't reflect the kitchen-table issues that voters are worried about here.

Jodi Simon, who raises Holsteins on a 300-acre ranch near the eastern Iowa town of Farley, worries about the price of feedstock, which has nearly doubled since last year.

At the same time, health care premiums for her husband and their seven children have jumped 11 percent, she said. Simon is a Republican, but abortion rights and same-sex marriage aren't her top concerns.

"What I want to hear from a president is how are you going to help a small business," Simon said, sitting a few feet from one of her prize-winning calves at the fair. "For self-employed people, a lot of costs are going up."

Checking out candidates

David Perdon of West Des Moines, who sells food and supplies to restaurants, worries about the price of gasoline. Driving 500 miles a week, he spends $10,000 a year on gas. After the stock market nose-dived this week, so did the value of his 401(k). He looks at his three kids under 12 and wonders about the future.

"You want to look for a new job, but if you start one then you're the last person hired there," Perdon said. "So you hang onto a job that might not be as good."

Perdon is a Republican and is watching closely what Palin will do. He's also "intrigued" by Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who was born in Iowa. But he's leaning toward former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, one of the more socially moderate Republicans in the field, "because he knows business."

Romney supported civil unions for same-sex couples and abortion rights in the past but has since switched positions and opposes both of them.

Conservatives dominate

Socially conservative Republicans have long dominated the straw poll in Ames. The Rev. Pat Robertson won it in 1987. Bachmann, among other candidates, has worked hard to organize a network of evangelical pastors here. On the stump, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has included references to how the United States should be a "moral" nation.

But with Perry officially entering the race today, Palin isn't only running out of time, she's also running out of a political niche to exploit.

She declined to say Friday whether she had hired any staff or is creating a ground operation in Iowa, in advance of the February Iowa caucuses, saying only that if she jumped into the race she'd run a "very grassroots" campaign with operatives who don't live in Washington.

"I think Rick Perry, as the governor of a large state, could discourage her from getting in," Bystrom said.

Perry surprises Palin

Palin said Perry's move won't affect her decision. She was, however, surprised by it.

"I was quite sure he wasn't going to run because he was quite adamant about it about four months ago," Palin said. "So it surprised me. Evidently, he evolved in his thinking."

As Palin and her husband, Todd, inched through the crowd at the fair Friday, surrounded by nearly three dozen reporters, she said she doesn't "want to be seen as or perceived as stringing people along."

She doesn't want to send a message that tells supporters " 'Oh, don't jump in there on somebody else's bandwagon because I may jump in, so hold off a little bit.' That's not fair to them after another month or two." she said.