With Rick Perry stepping aside after
more than a decade as governor, a host of statewide candidates can finally try
to move up. And the governor freed himself to focus on another possible run for
president.

The impact of Monday’s announcement on
the state political scene was immediate and dramatic. Attorney General Greg
Abbott plans a multi-city statewide tour starting Sunday in San Antonio. He’s
considered the front-runner for governor — a job that has been out of reach for
a decade. An aide says there will be no formal announcement this week.

At least six of nine top elected
executive offices will change hands. Texans will replace the governor, attorney
general, comptroller and commissioners for land, agriculture and railroads.

Tom Pauken, the former state Republican
chairman and a one-time Reagan administration official, is already in the race
for governor. Minutes after Perry’s announcement, Pauken called likely rival
Abbott part of an Austin political scene “grown stale with insiders.”

For Perry himself, Monday’s event seemed
designed to pivot from Texas successes to a return to the national scene. His
speech was replete with references to job-creation and the Texas economy. Those
could serve as the foundation for a repackaged national message for 2016.

A campaign video, played for hundreds of
supporters and former staffers before Perry took the stage, depicted bright
scenes of a booming Texas economy. A tag line touted Perry as “America’s
greatest job creation governor.”

Aides think Republican voters would
forgive Perry’s disastrous performance last year and give him a second chance
if he runs for president again.

Dewhurst’s
race

Perhaps the most vigorously fought race
will be for lieutenant governor in which David Dewhurst faces three challengers
who want his job. Dewhurst is a rare incumbent who says he will seek
re-election statewide next year.

While Perry was delivering his
announcement in a heavy-equipment warehouse that was a backdrop for his
jobs-and-economy message, Dewhurst was tending affairs in the Senate. The
Capitol is embroiled in a fractious political fight over a bill to ban abortion
after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

Dewhurst has come under fire from social
conservatives after Democratic Sen. Wendy Davis’ filibuster doomed the bill in
the last legislative session. Perry called lawmakers back and Dewhurst has
visibly championed the bill. He hopes to win over social conservatives who
abandoned him in last year’s GOP primary for U.S. Senate against Ted Cruz.

He faces fire from the right in the GOP
primary. Land Commissioner and gun-rights advocate Jerry Patterson, Agriculture
Commissioner Todd Staples and Houston Sen. Dan Patrick, a tea party favorite,
are all running.

The attorney general race could divide
the Republican establishment and trigger a big-dollar political slugfest. Barry
Smitherman, a Perry appointee to the Railroad Commission, could face Dallas
Rep. Dan Branch, a legislative veteran with the backing of some of the GOP’s
established business interests.

Texas’ fundamental Republican character
isn’t expected to change next year. Democrats haven’t elected a statewide
candidate since 1994. There are few signs that will change in 2014 — the
contested races in the GOP primary are the contests that count. The last time
there was an open race for governor was 1990.

Still, Democrats took the opportunity of
Perry’s announcement to renew predictions that a rising Hispanic population and
growing dissatisfaction with Republican rule will help turn Texas blue. The
goal is to mobilize national Democrats to provide help.

“To his credit, Rick realized that he’s
worn out his welcome,” said Democratic activist Matt Angle of the Lone Star
Project.

Democrats have yet to field any
statewide candidates. Davis’ headline-grabbing filibuster made her a star in
the Democratic Party. She is being urged to run for governor.

But the odds against her would be
formidable — especially now that she wouldn’t be running against Perry, who has
his share of enemies after a quarter-century as an elected official in Texas.

Underwhelmed

Perry had promised to announce “exciting
future plans.” But some supporters were left Monday feeling underwhelmed, in
part because the governor didn’t talk about what exactly he intends to do next.

He recited his record on low taxes,
business-friendly regulations and his opposition to abortion and gay marriage.
He bragged, “We Texans are not afraid of a good fight.” But he didn’t say what
the next battle was.

Perry will serve out his current term,
which ends in January 2015. Leaving office would allow Perry to spend time in
the early nominating states of Iowa, South Carolina and Florida without the
responsibility of the 2015 legislative session.

His last race for president ended in
embarrassment, after the “oops” debate moment in which he couldn’t remember the
names of the three federal agencies he promised to abolish. After getting in
ill-prepared and late, Perry dropped out before the South Carolina primary.

Perry aides blamed his poor performance
in 2012 on the effects of back surgery and lack of proper preparation. This
time, expectations about Perry would be low. His advisers believe that he could
spend time meeting with voters and learning the issues.

Perry has promised to let top supporters
know his presidential plans before the end of the year.

AT A GLANCE: Likely candidates for
statewide positions

Here is a tipsheet on the Republican
primary battles taking shape for the six most powerful statewide constitutional
offices:

Analysis: Abbott, while never tested in
a primary, has the money and the staff. Pauken will try to link him to Austin’s
“pay to play” political culture and the state’s hiring of foreign vendors to
build toll roads and administer school tests. Edge to Abbott.

Analysis: Incumbent Susan Combs is
retiring, and three unknowns are chasing her post. Hegar, a rice-farm heir, is
expected to press a financial advantage. Railroad Commissioner Christy Craddick
may also jump in, making it four.

Analysis: Creighton, chairman of the
House GOP caucus, helped defeat Medicaid expansion in this year’s regular
legislative session. But he may face questions about whether he brought enough
conservative pressure to bear on Speaker Joe Straus. And the field may not be
fully set.

LAND
COMMISSIONER

Likely candidates: George P. Bush, Fort
Worth

Analysis: Money and the Bush brand
should deter major challengers as former President George W. Bush’s nephew
makes his political debut.

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