EU natural gas demand: uncertainty, dependence and bargaining power

September 10, 2010 | 00:00

This paper reviews and compares major long-term scenarios for the European Union’s demand, supply and imports of natural gas. The analysis includes scenarios from the IEA, the European Commission and Eurogas, and pays particular attention to the role of climate policy commitments.
While the Union’s import dependence ratio is set to c...

EU natural gas demand: uncertainty, dependence and bargaining power

Edward Hunter Christie

This paper reviews and compares major long-term scenarios for the European Union’s demand, supply and imports of natural gas. The analysis includes scenarios from the IEA, the European Commission and Eurogas, and pays particular attention to the role of climate policy commitments.

While the Union’s import dependence ratio is set to continue to rise according to all available scenario projections, there is considerable uncertainty about the demand volumes that may unfold. This high level of uncertainty will lead to a number of practical difficulties for EU governments and institutions as well as for the Union’s energy companies and their external partners. In a longer-term perspective, the option of consolidating the Union’s bargaining power through the creation of a gas purchasing agency is also discussed.