'Vote yes for jobs!' say Irish supporters of the FU Treaty. Will voters fall for it a second time?

It won't make any difference. Even if Ireland votes against the FU Treaty, it’ll be imposed anyway. It’s what happened when the country voted against Nice in 2001, and against Lisbon in 2008. Brussels won’t take ‘No’ for an answer.

This time, Eurocrats won’t even need to demand a rerun (‘go away and try again, Paddy…’) The fiscal compact has been specifically designed to be proof against ‘No’ votes: it will come into effect once 12 out of the 17 eurozone states ratify.

Still, I hope Ireland says FU to the Merkozy treaty, for four reasons.

First, Irish voters have never been asked about the loans-for-austerity package that has brought them to their present predicament. Every party at the last election (except Sinn Féin and the Trotskyists) supported the bailouts. The coming poll is the closest Irish voters will get to a say on whether they should be sent the bill for propping up the entire European banking system.

Second, Irish politicians have lied and lied again when it comes to Europe. Look at the montage above. Every party (except Sinn Féin and the Trotskyists) promised that a ‘Yes’ to Lisbon would bring an economic recovery. In fact, the 'Yes' vote led to two years of recession and unemployment. The same discredited politicians are now trotting out the same discredited argument about the FU Treaty. The Taoiseach declares without a blush that it 'remains a fundamental pillar of our economic and jobs strategy'. As they say in Ireland, ‘Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me’.

Third, Ireland deserves a debate on whether remaining in the euro serves anyone’s interest other than a handful of bankers and Eurocrats. Ireland is not Greece. It is not in this mess because of longstanding productivity problems. On the contrary, it had done everything right, and was running a healthy surplus going into the crash. No, Ireland’s problems come solely and narrowly from its membership of the euro. It won’t recover until it leaves.

Oh, and fourth, a ‘No’ vote in Ireland will again remind British voters that they still haven't had the referendum that all three parties promised before the last election. Every time another country gets the vote we are being denied, our patience wears thinner. Smile at us, pay us, pass us – but do not quite forget.