Monthly Archives: April 2017

With the 2018 Olympic Winter Games now less than 10 months away, I have started looking at some stats related to the Winter Olympics. Since I often work with the US Olympic Committee at the Olympics, this has also entailed looking at @TeamUSA stats. One interesting stat is that the USA has won 96 gold medals at the Winter Olympics, and barring a complete reversal of recent performances, will go over 100 in PyeongChang.

I was also interested in how the USA stacks up on the overall medal list, and I noted that they are second, behind Norway in both gold medals and total medals won, but also that, over the last few Winter Olympics, they have moving up the list. The top four nations at the Olympic Games, in terms of medals won, are as follows:

Rank

NOC

G

S

B

TM

1

Norway

118

113

101

332

2

United States

96

103

85

284

3

Germany

87

85

58

230

4

Austria

59

78

81

218

I’m not going to look any further at Austria. It looks like it is close to the top 3 nations, only slightly behind Germany, but in fact, it is much further behind than the above stats reveal. That is because Germany only includes medals won as a combined Germany, and from 1968-88 both West Germany (FRG) and East Germany (GDR) competed and if you include those medals, Austria is far behind.

Over the last few Olympics, the USA has improved a great deal and seemed to be closing in on Norway in terms of medals won and golds won. I was curious if this trend continued, when the USA might overtake Norway, if they did at all, or perhaps Germany might also do so.

Germany would be ahead now if the country had not been divided. Counting Germany and the GDR, they would have 126 gold medals and 340 medals, and lead both lists. Counting Germany and West Germany, they would have 98 golds, and 269 medals, distancing Austria. If you count a combined German team, counting all German medals, they have 137 golds and 379 medals, far ahead in both categories. That is, however, somewhat of a specious argument as from 1968-88 such a United Germany would have had 6-8 competitors in many individual events, far more than usually allowed.

For future predictions, the important years to look at are 1992-2014, because in 1992 Germany was again a unified nation. In addition, in the 21st century, Norway has not led the medal list, either in golds, or total medals, at any Winter Olympics, except for golds in 2002. It would appear that both Germany and the United States are catching up.

So are Norway’s days at the top of the Winter Olympics medal table numbered? We looked at the average number of golds and medals won at each Winter Olympics since 1992 by Norway, Germany, and the USA. We then predicted what would happen at the next few Winter Olympics, if all three nations continued to win medals at the same rate they have since 1992.

Here’s what the table looks like, going from 1992-2070:

Year

NOC

G

Meds

NOC

G

Meds

NOC

G

Meds

1992

NOR

63

188

USA

47

134

GER

25

63

1994

NOR

73

214

USA

53

147

GER

34

87

1998

NOR

83

239

USA

59

160

GER

46

116

2002

NOR

96

264

USA

69

194

GER

58

152

2006

NOR

98

283

USA

78

219

GER

69

181

2010

NOR

107

306

USA

87

256

GER

79

211

2014

NOR

118

332

USA

96

284

GER

87

230

2018

NOR

127

356

USA

104

309

GER

97

258

2022

NOR

136

380

USA

112

334

GER

108

286

2026

NOR

146

404

USA

121

359

GER

118

314

2030

NOR

155

428

USA

129

384

GER

128

341

2034

NOR

164

452

USA

137

409

GER

139

369

2038

NOR

173

476

USA

145

434

GER

149

397

2042

NOR

182

500

USA

153

459

GER

159

425

2046

NOR

191

524

USA

161

484

GER

170

453

2050

NOR

201

548

USA

170

509

GER

180

481

2054

NOR

210

572

USA

178

534

GER

190

508

2058

NOR

219

596

USA

186

559

GER

201

536

2062

NOR

228

620

USA

194

584

GER

211

564

2066

NOR

237

644

USA

202

609

GER

221

592

2070

NOR

246

668

USA

210

634

GER

232

620

That’s a pretty busy table but here is what the chart of these projected medal tables look like:

As you can see in this chart, Norway starts out ahead in medals and gold medals, and stays ahead through 2070, although Germany and the United States both close the gaps slightly.

So will the USA or Germany topple Norway from the top of the Winter Olympic medal table? Not in my lifetime, and probably not in this century, unless things change.

Now it may be that they will change. The trend has been to add more and more X-generation and X-Games sports, such as freestyle skiing and snowboarding, and the United States has excelled at these sports. Germany not so much, but Germany is dominant in sliding sports. Unfortunately they’ve run out of them since we have sports going down the mountain sitting (bobsled), lying prone (skeleton), and lying supine (luge). I’m not sure how else they can slide down the mountain, unless they come up with a standing sliding event – ice surfing?

The above also assumes that the number of events on the Winter Olympics Program will remain about the same. The IOC has tended to add more and more events, but there are not many more Winter Olympic sports to add, and it’s hard to predict how these numbers may change if the number of events increases. It will depend on which events are added, whether they favor traditional winter events, favoring Norway, or they add X-sports, favoring the United States, and less so, Germany.

So for the foreseeable future, unless the Winter Olympic Program drastically changes, I think Norway will continue to lead the all-time Winter Olympic medal table through the 21st century.

In late November 2016 Hilary Evans (@OlyStatman) and I published a blog on this site about the IOC (International Olympic Committee) re-testing of the 2008-12 Olympic drug tests. In that blog, we noted that there were 104 positive tests for doping at those 2 Games, and gave details of which nations, which sports, and which drugs were involved. Please see http://olympstats.com/2016/11/28/summary-of-the-ioc-re-testing-from-2008-2012-to-date/ for the original summary.

Since that blog was published the re-testing has gone on, and the IOC has actually had six further releases in IOC News, announcing further sanctions. As a result, the 104 positive tests number is now only a memory, and today’s blog is to give a further update on the current status of the IOC re-tests from the 2008-12 Olympics.

As of 1 April 2017, there have now been 182 positive drug tests from the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, which includes the original positive tests and the positive re-tests over the previous 20 months or so. Of these, there were 81 positives from the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and 101 from the 2012 London Olympics. Of these 182 positives, 9 athletes tested positive at both the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, so there have been 173 athletes sanctioned. The 9 doping Grand Slam winners are as follows, with Ilyin losing 2 gold medals and Ostapchuk losing a gold and a bronze:

Name

Gender

NOC

Sport

Andrey Mikhnevich

M

BLR

ATH

Hripsime Khurshudyan

F

ARM

WLT

Ilya Ilyin

M

KAZ

WLT

İntiqam Zairov

M

AZE

WLT

Irina Kulesha

F

BLR

WLT

Ivan Tikhon

M

BLR

ATH

Maiya Maneza

F

KAZ

WLT

Nadezhda Ostapchuk

F

BLR

ATH

Oksana Menkova

F

BLR

ATH

In the above, you will note that 5 athletes were from Belarus and 2 from Kazakhstan. Of the 182 sanctions given, the national breakdown is as follows:

NOC

###

Russia

48

Belarus

23

Ukraine

18

Turkey

14

Kazakhstan

12

Azerbaijan

6

Moldova

5

Armenia

4

China

4

Greece

4

Brazil

3

Spain

3

Germany

3

United States

3

Colombia

2

Cuba

2

Italy

2

Saudi Arabia

2

Morocco

2

Norway

2

Qatar

2

Uzbekistan

2

Albania

1

Bahrain

1

Bulgaria

1

Croatia

1

Cyprus

1

France

1

Georgia

1

Ireland

1

Jamaica

1

Poland

1

DPR Korea (North)

1

Saint Kitts and Nevis

1

Slovenia

1

Syria

1

Trinidad & Tobago

1

Vietnam

1

Total

182

Of these, 65.4% are from former Soviet nations. While quite high, that is better than in the 28 November 2016 blog, when, of the 104 positive tests, 82.7% came from former Soviet nations.

The breakdown by sport is as follows:

Sport

###

Athletics

103

Weightlifting

50

Equestrian Events

7

Cycling

6

Wrestling

6

Gymnastics

2

Shooting

2

Boxing

1

Canoeing

1

Judo

1

Modern Pentathlon

1

Rowing

1

Swimming

1

Total

182

Here, athletics (track & field) accounts for 56.6% of the positive tests, while athletics and weightlifting together comprise 84.1% of all the positive tests. It should be noted that the equestrian positives involve doping of the horses, in most cases with capsaicin, a topical anti-inflammatory medication derived from chili peppers.

As to what the athletes are taking, the trend is the same as back in November 2016 with the three biggest offenders being turinabol (dehydrochloromethyltestosterone), stanozolol (7β-Hydroxy-17α-methyl-5α-androstano[3,2-c]pyrazole), both of which are anabolic steroids, and biological passport offenses. The breakdown by drugs is given in the following table. Note that the total comes to well over 182 (222) because many athletes tested positive for 2 or more drugs.

As noted in that previous blog, it is very difficult to give full details about medals lost and medals won by nations. In doping sanctions, the results are changed by the International Federations (IFs), while the medals are removed and re-allocated by the IOC. Thus we can provide good information about medals lost, but re-allocation of medals can be a slow process because of appeals to the CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) and further legal appeals. Because of the legal risks involved, the IOC moves slowly in re-allocation of medals.

As I noted in some recent tweets, however, re-allocation of Olympic medals is not a given. The classic case in 2008-12 has occurred in the 2012 men’s 94 kg weightlifting event, in which 6 of the top 8 finishers, including the top 4 finishers, all tested positive. Theoretically, the 9th place finisher, Tomasz Zielinski of Poland, could move up to a bronze medal. However, as of 1 April, the IOC has re-allocated the gold and silver medals (to Saeid Mohammadpourkarkaragh of Iran and Kim Min-Jae of Korea, respectively), but has not re-allocated the bronze medal, likely because Zielinski had a doping positive in Rio for spironolactone.

However, as of 1 April 2017, 74 medals have been lost for doping positives in 2008-12, with 18 gold medals removed. The breakdown is as follows, with the detailed breakdown first, followed by tables listing medals lost by sports and nations:

NOC

Sport

Year

G

S

B

TM

Armenia

Weightlifting

2008

0

0

1

1

Azerbaijan

Wrestling

2008

0

1

0

1

Belarus

Athletics

2008

1

2

3

6

Belarus

Weightlifting

2008

0

1

1

2

Brazil

Equestrian Events

2008

0

0

1

1

Bahrain

Athletics

2008

1

0

0

1

China

Weightlifting

2008

3

0

0

3

Cuba

Athletics

2008

0

1

0

1

Greece

Athletics

2008

0

0

1

1

Italy

Cycling

2008

0

1

0

1

Jamaica

Athletics

2008

1

0

0

1

Kazakhstan

Weightlifting

2008

1

1

1

3

Kazakhstan

Wrestling

2008

0

0

1

1

Norway

Equestrian Events

2008

0

0

1

1

DPR Korea (North)

Shooting

2008

0

1

1

2

Russia

Athletics

2008

0

4

2

6

Russia

Weightlifting

2008

0

1

3

4

Russia

Wrestling

2008

0

1

0

1

Turkey

Athletics

2008

0

1

0

1

Turkey

Weightlifting

2008

0

1

0

1

Ukraine

Athletics

2008

0

1

1

2

Ukraine

Modern Pentathlon

2008

0

0

1

1

Ukraine

Weightlifting

2008

0

1

1

2

Totals

2008

7

18

19

44

Armenia

Weightlifting

2012

0

0

1

1

Belarus

Athletics

2012

1

0

0

1

Belarus

Weightlifting

2012

0

0

2

2

Kazakhstan

Weightlifting

2012

4

0

0

4

Moldova

Weightlifting

2012

0

0

2

2

Russia

Athletics

2012

4

4

1

9

Russia

Weightlifting

2012

0

4

0

4

Russia

Wrestling

2012

0

1

0

1

Turkey

Athletics

2012

2

0

0

2

Ukraine

Athletics

2012

0

1

0

1

Ukraine

Weightlifting

2012

0

0

1

1

United States

Athletics

2012

0

1

0

1

Uzbekistan

Wrestling

2012

0

0

1

1

Totals

2012

11

11

8

30

Overal Totals

18

29

27

74

Sport

G

S

B

TM

Athletics

10

15

8

33

Weightlifting

8

9

13

30

Wrestling

0

3

2

5

Shooting

0

1

1

2

Equestrian Events

0

0

2

2

Cycling

0

1

0

1

Modern Pentathlon

0

0

1

1

Totals

18

29

27

74

NOC

G

S

B

TM

Russia

4

15

6

25

Belarus

2

3

6

11

Kazakhstan

5

1

2

8

Ukraine

0

3

4

7

Turkey

2

2

0

4

China

3

0

0

3

DPR Korea (North)

0

1

1

2

Armenia

0

0

2

2

Moldova

0

0

2

2

Bahrain

1

0

0

1

Jamaica

1

0

0

1

Azerbaijan

0

1

0

1

Cuba

0

1

0

1

Italy

0

1

0

1

United States

0

1

0

1

Brazil

0

0

1

1

Greece

0

0

1

1

Norway

0

0

1

1

Uzbekistan

0

0

1

1

Total

18

29

27

74

For completeness, at the end of this blog, we will list all 182 positive tests to date, which also details medals removed, sorted, in order, by year, nation, sport, and gender.

I will also repeat a paragraph from the November 2016: “These athletes did break the rules and this certainly looks terrible, but it’s important to remember one thing about this. The IOC tries to catch the drug cheats, more so than in most professional sports, notably in the four major pro sports in the United States (although baseball has gotten much better in recent years). Further, the WADA penalties are far more punitive than those in US professional sports, especially the NFL where a positive drug test costs you 4 games, or ¼th of a season, versus 2 calendar years or more in Olympic sports. It is easy to criticize the IOC for this plethora of positive tests, but one should also note that they took the trouble to do the re-testing, something we will almost never see from the NFL or other professional sports.”

So, in summary, the numbers have significantly increased since our last report on this in November 2016, however, the trends are similar. The most affected sports have been athletics and weightlifting, by far, and the nations involved have tended to be former Soviet nations, led by Russia, Belarus, and the Ukraine. The testing is ongoing, so watch this space.