Wednesday, December 5, 2007

I've heard the argument that Bedard will be worth just as much or more in July as he's worth now, which might be true if you could guarantee he'll be healthy and productive at midseason. I've also heard how the Orioles have to be extra cautious because they only have so many tradable players and can't afford to make a mistake.Of course, it's that kind of thinking that has made them one of baseball's most timid teams at trade time since the Glenn Davis disaster of the early 1990s.

The Glen Davis trade set the O's back at least 5 years when they made it. They gave up Pete Harnisch, Curt Schilling and Steve Finley for that guy. Think about it. I'd be timid too after that. Or at least a little cautious.

If they hang on to Bedard without signing him long term, they become vulnerable not only to another injury but also to the possibility that he could make it difficult to complete a deal next year by telegraphing a firm intention to enter the free-agent market after the 2009 season. If you think he's above that sort of thing, you haven't met him.

The Orioles would be vulnerable to an injury whether they sign him or not. Look, I agree that you need to move Bedard while his value is peaking but I doubt his value will be any less in March than it is now. You have to make the right deal. (I think that deal involves the Dodgers and includes Matt Kemp but that's just my opinion now isn't it?)

The most compelling reason for decisive action, however, has nothing to do with the circumstances of the individual players. The Orioles cannot wait an additional six months or a year because they already have waited long enough.

Truly one of the dumbest things I've read in quite a long time. Circumstances be damned! We've waited long enough and demand change? If you don't take into account the circumstances of the individual players, why not just give them away?

Look, the circumstances are these: Miguel Tejada is still one of the better offensive shortstops in the league and although his glove isn't what it once was, he is still an average fielder. Erik Bedard is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is a great value since he is still two full years away from free agency. These are great bargaining chips and you can't ignore that fact and make a deal for the sake of a deal.

*****

Andy MacPhail is in no hurry to make a deal according to Jeff Zrebiec. Nor should he be! My feeling is that MacPhail really would like to make a deal this week but this is how you play poker or buy a used car. If you show desperation, you're done. MacPhail has the high hand here and he knows it, especially when it comes to moving Bedard.

This isn't MacPhail's first time at the rodeo and he had some pretty good mentors in his father and grandfather. I think we'll make out just fine.

*****

The Mets offering Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber and Aaron Heilman of Erik Bedard has been one of the most consistent rumors in Nashville this week. Not thick enough! Let me get this straight. You want to get one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL at a bargain basement salary for a light hitting but speedy outfielder, a pitcher with an 18-19 record and an ERA over 4.00 in his minor league career and a journeyman long relief man? Get out Omar Minaya! Get out of my office!