Sequestration: So now what?

Here’s the good news for the first day of the sequester: The world won’t end.

For all the hype, spin and blame exchanged over the across-the-board cuts, the reality is they don’t mean the sudden economic collapse of America. So it’s understandable that Main Street hasn’t been tuning into this distinctly Not-Made-for-TV crisis: Polls show Americans aren’t paying close attention to the fight even though a slight majority says sequestration will hurt the economy.

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But tell that to the people who will be affected. More than 1 million federal employees could get furlough notices. Programs for the poor could be cut. Fishermen from California to Alaska could miss the start of halibut season on March 23.

President Barack Obama will meet with House and Senate leaders Friday morning, but nobody expects a last-minute solution. More likely — a month of tense and complicated negotiations with Congress and the White House trying to address the $85 billion in domestic cuts at the same time they try to fund the government through the rest of the fiscal year before money runs out March 27.

And if the cuts aren’t addressed? There’s more pain for everyone: Furlough notices could turn into office closures, federal tax returns could take longer to process and hurricane season could see fewer forecasters tracking storms.

“It won’t be like a shutdown, where it’s like turning off the light switch,” Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano told reporters at the White House on Monday. “But all I can say for folks is these are the effects that will accrue.”

Many of the agencies contacted by POLITICO this week said they still don’t know for sure when exactly the cuts will ripple through their ranks. But here’s a look ahead at what to expect:

Friday

Sequestration officially starts Friday — most likely at 11:59 p.m., though Obama could act sooner — when the Office of Management and Budget issues a notice ordering agencies to make cuts of about 9 percent for most nondefense programs and about 13 percent for defense programs.

OMB will simultaneously transmit a report to Congress with those same details.

“That’s an important symbolic moment,” said OMB Controller Danny Werfel. “The reality is I think it becomes extraordinarily problematic and serious once we hit March 1 because then it’s real and then a lot of these things come to fruition in a much more exponential way.”

Negotiations between agencies and union officials — already ongoing — will reach fever pitch Friday ahead of the release of the agency furlough notices. Talks center on how the furloughs will be implemented, who’s covered, mandatory days off around holidays and whether to go in phases over the next seven months so budget officials can re-evaluate whether more or less time off is needed.

Programs that dole out funding as an intermediary — like public rent assistance, farm loans and food programs — will see immediate cuts. The same goes for the Farm Service Agency’s loans, particularly those for small, family-owned farms, which face a cut of $5.4 million, resulting in 890 fewer direct farm aid loans.