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Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Frazier has played SS.
Votto has played LF, RF, and C.
Ludwick has played CF.
Valdez has pitched.
Arredondo has played SS.

It is much less about whether or not somebody has played a position before, and much more about if the team will be better as a whole with players playing positions that they haven't sniffed in 4+ seasons. Again, as I said repeatedly in the Choo and Pence trade rumor threads, this is a team that has come out and said that they are dedicated to defense on the field, and there is no equation that has Bruce in CF that fits that philosophy.

Baseball is really hard already- do we really need it to be even harder with players playing out of position?

The mechanics of playing a different outfield position doesn't really change too much. It's mostly just a matter of having the physical skills to do it successfully (i.e. having the range to play center, the arm to play right, etc.)

Over the course of a full season, a Frazier-Bruce-Ludwick outfield is probably not a good idea. But in one month, it might work.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by Brutus

The mechanics of playing a different outfield position doesn't really change too much. It's mostly just a matter of having the physical skills to do it successfully (i.e. having the range to play center, the arm to play right, etc.)

Over the course of a full season, a Frazier-Bruce-Ludwick outfield is probably not a good idea. But in one month, it might work.

Is there any evidence that Bruce would be able to play center at a passable MLB level?

The fact that he hasn't been there since 2008 but a backup middle infielder has says a lot about that.

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Is there any evidence that Bruce would be able to play center at a passable MLB level?

The fact that he hasn't been there since 2008 but a backup middle infielder has says a lot about that.

Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Dusty likes for the regular guys to have regular spots, both in the field and in the lineup. It's a big thing with him. Therefore, I think he would be more inclined to play one of the backups in a more unfamiliar spot than risking disrupting one of the everyday players routines.

They don't think it be like it is, but it do.

Originally Posted by Larry Schuler

He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Is there any evidence that Bruce would be able to play center at a passable MLB level?

The fact that he hasn't been there since 2008 but a backup middle infielder has says a lot about that.

I don't think it says anything about it other than they prefer him in right field because he has one of the best arms in baseball and so that's his best position. But in this case, maybe the Reds view this as having someone capable of justifying being out of an ideal position because of their bat, so they might see this as an opportunity to win more games down the stretch.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

The important consideration is wht might Frazier be worth compared to Stubbs over the next 30+ games. ZIPs projects Frazier would be worth about 2.4 runs more than Stubbs.

Over 30 games, Bruce in CF and Frazier in the corner probably looks like -5 runs.

So for this to work one needs to expect no regression from Frazier's or Stubbs' bats.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Based on their stats before today's game, Stubbs has created 0.107 runs per TPA while Frazier has created 0.172 per TPA. Figure 4.5 TPA per games for the remaining of the season and Frazier would be at 26.18 runs created vs Stubbs' 16.32.

"But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by Raisor

Based on their stats before today's game, Stubbs has created 0.107 runs per TPA while Frazier has created 0.172 per TPA. Figure 4.5 TPA per games for the remaining of the season and Frazier would be at 26.18 runs created vs Stubbs' 16.32.

And again that only happens if neither player regresses (I.e Frazier continues to be this good and Stubbs continues to be this bad).

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by jojo

And again that only happens if neither player regresses (I.e Frazier continues to be this good and Stubbs continues to be this bad).

I've been saying for a long time that Stubbs just doesn't have the ability to make the adjustments and he profiles as a player who will continue to get worse as his career goes on. That is a pretty typical path for a lot of players who come up and look pretty good at first, level off and start to decline as the league adjusts. Its why many guys careers come to an end long before the birth certificate says that it should. I don't know that Frazier won't regress (I'd guess he will but maybe not this year), but I'm pretty confident that Stubbs won't improve and more likely will continue his downward spiral. I'd guess that Stubbs will be a minor leaguer by his 30th birthday. I don't think ZIPS can account for that real world decline that Stubbs is in the middle of. Stubbs 2009 and 2010 have influence on the projections but are really meaningless when it comes to what we should expect from Stubbs. ZIPS might be right about Frazier, but I'm betting its way too optimisric concerning Stubbs.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by jojo

And again that only happens if neither player regresses (I.e Frazier continues to be this good and Stubbs continues to be this bad).

I don't have stats to back me up, but I think we have a pretty good idea as to what kind of player Stubbs is. Pretty good (but not great) defense and I think mth123 hit it on the head as to where he is as a hitter.

With Frazier proving he is an everyday player and I think Stubbs has shown he isn't, I think the time has come to at least platoon Stubbs, start him against lefties and use him as a late inning defensive replacement. I wish Dusty would put Stubbs down at #8 hole so his hitting deficiencies aren't so critical. Hitting #1 or #2, he just seems to be up at the worst possible times.

Shuffle the OF a bit, use Bruce in CF once in a while, start Heisey once a week, and give the bulk of the ABs to Bruce, Frazier, and Ludwick. They are the guys that can hit consistently. The defense will drop a bit, but the offense will perk up quite a bit.

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

I find it funny that the Cardinals seem to move guys around to new positions (Schumaker to 2B) and not think twice about it. Yet moving Bruce to CF, a position he played extensively in his career up until 2008 is an issue.

"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I find it funny that the Cardinals seem to move guys around to new positions (Schumaker to 2B) and not think twice about it. Yet moving Bruce to CF, a position he played extensively in his career up until 2008 is an issue.

Schumaker has been basically horrible at 2B, which would fit my expectations for Bruce ca. 2012 in center field pretty closely.

Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

Originally Posted by Raisor

2 total chances per game.

exactly how bad do you think he'll be?

I overstated my point in my last post. I don't see the Reds playing a UZR-neutral RF in CF and a negative-UZR LF in RF with a converted infielder in LF since they have stated several times in the last year(s) that defense is a priority for the team. Maybe if this were MLB2K12, but not in MLB when you are trying to win the division.

Baseball is won on the margins because of its random variance, and increasing the variance of any ball in play by taking a defensive asset and making it a potential liability seems silly. We all remember the gap shots of the mid-00s where seeing Griffey and Dunn chase balls down should have had the benny hill theme song playing over the PA system.

As far as how bad I think Bruce would be? I think he would be bad enough that if I were GM or manager, I would never even remotely consider placing him in CF on a team with Heisey and Stubbs on it. I think placing Bruce in CF after four-plus years of corner outfield play is a really poor plan.

-edit-

And as far as two total chances per game? Every OF on the Reds is averaging about 2 putouts per game- I can't find a statistic of total chances for any outfielder on fangraphs. Chances are, the trickle-down effect of poor defensive play in the outfield would be much bigger than the two chances that you are alluding to.

Anyway- if you use that logic, why have any plus defensive outfielders? After all, it's only two chances a game...

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