We’re not going to bore you today by pretending it’s some kind of news flash that the SEC is likelier than any other conference to produce this season’s national champion. The SEC has won five consecutive titles, as you surely know, and has Alabama and LSU in the top three of both the AP and coaches polls.

Clearly the table is set for the most highly regarded—and rooted against—league in the land.

But let’s look at five reasons for that statement that have more to do with other conferences. Is that a little backward? Maybe. Is it a little goofy to theorize and hypothesize about the postseason two weeks into September? No doubt.

So we’ve got that settled. We’re goofy, and here are those five reasons:

1. Oklahoma, currently ranked No. 1, couldn’t weather a loss like Alabama or LSU could. If the Sooners go 13-0, they’ll play in New Orleans for the BCS title. If they lose somewhere along the way but still win the Big 12, they’ll have to turn to a wish list: that every Big Ten and Pac-12 team (except USC, which is ineligible for a bowl) has lost; that the ACC and Big East still don’t have the right kind of reputations; that this isn’t the year the voters band together like never before to reward a non-BCS team with a perfect record (in other words, Boise State).

And, of course, that the SEC’s season was completely chaotic. Think: a two-loss SEC champ. But not like in 2007, when LSU lost twice in league play but got to play for (and win) it all anyway.

2. The Big Ten’s track record. Only one Big Ten program in the BCS era has gone unbeaten through the regular season: Ohio State in both 2002 and 2006. Not even the most diehard Bucknuts see that happening in 2011. Wisconsin? Nebraska? It doesn’t sound completely wacko in either case, but it would be a first for the Huskers since 1997 and for the Badgers since, well, it’s not even worth looking that one up.

At 13-0, though, either Wisconsin or Nebraska would inch above a one-loss SEC champ in the BCS rankings. For whatever that’s worth.

3. Week 1 damaged the Pac-12 and, in particular, Stanford. A little more than a month before LSU’s season opener vs. Oregon, Les Miles told Sporting News this: “I guarantee you that whichever team loses that game can still win a national championship.”

Not after the way the Ducks were physically dominated in that game. They wouldn’t seem to have a prayer unless they go 12-1, LSU goes 13-0, everyone else loses (in at least a few key cases, more than once) and the pollsters begin to pine, for some inexplicable reason, for a rematch.

That’s a long way to say Oregon’s loss could really hurt Stanford. As could USC’s pathetic effort in a 19-17 win over Minnesota. The Ducks and Trojans are Stanford’s two most glamorous opponents. A win over either wouldn’t be as powerful as it once was.

Consider this, too: The Cardinal close at home vs. Notre Dame. There’s another “big win” that’s out the window now in terms of its value.

4. The reputations of the ACC and Big East. Let’s start with the Big East because it’ll go quicker: It’s by far the worst of the BCS leagues, and it’s only shot at a national championship depends on A) West Virginia beating LSU in Morgantown on Sept. 24 and B) the Mountaineers winning out from there. Even if those things happen—and, please, don’t bet on the first one—West Virginia will be far from a sure thing to get to New Orleans for the big game.

The ACC is different in that there are two teams with cause to be dreaming large. Florida State is already No. 5 in both voter polls; if it beats Oklahoma this Saturday night in Tallahassee, we’ll be talking about the No. 3-ranked team in America. Virginia Tech has the best shot of any team other than Boise State to go 12-0, but its schedule is soft—no FSU until, if at all, the ACC title game—and that will hurt the Hokies in the polls all season.

The best-case scenario for the ACC is unbeaten Florida State vs. unbeaten Virginia Tech on Dec. 3. But if, for example, FSU loses to Oklahoma then beats the Hokies later on—bang, neither team has a shot to play in New Orleans. It’s one giant house of cards for the ACC already.

5. Georgia is killing Boise State. The Broncos can’t catch a break. Last season they traveled east and scored a seemingly monumental win over Virginia Tech. Then the Hokies lost to James Madison, letting a lot of air out of Boise’s balloon.

So what did Chris Petersen’s idealistic program do to start 2011? Travel to Atlanta to take on Georgia because, darn it, the Broncos want to get to play for a national championship eventually and these high-risk games—which are supposed to offer high reward—seem to be necessary. But now Georgia stinks to high heaven. It’s just not fair.

Thanks for playing, Boise. We respect and admire you. We may even love you. (Sniff.) But you’re bound to get the short end of the stick yet again.