Tuesday, December 09, 2008

The Broadcast Film Critics Association have announced their 2008 Oscar Predictions nominees. Leading the field are Gus Van Sant's gay rights biopic Milk and David Fincher's backwards-aging curio Benjamin Button with eight nominations each.

Best Actress is particularly alarming with two acclaimed performances Winslet's and Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) snubbed to make room for both Melissa Leo (Frozen River... that longshot Oscar bid looking less and less impossible if still not quite probable) and Kate Beckinsale (Nothing but the Truth). Otherwise it's your usual suspects: Blanchett, Hathaway, Jolie and Streep. Obviously it can't transfer to Oscar though since there are six women. Do the math.

Brad & Angie. His & Hers BFCA nominations. Will the Globes and the Academy also court the world's most famous celebrity couple?

Best Actor -the only real surprise here: Brad Pitt underneath f/x instead of Leonardo DiCaprio's raging husband. Otherwise, the five men: Langella, Rourke, Eastwood, Penn, Jenkins are all in play for Oscar nods. Someone has to go... but who. Eastwood (I guess the media and not just the Academy wants him to have that fifth Oscar), Penn, Rourke and Langella all looking solid now but that fifth spot for Oscar. Ouch: DiCaprio, Pitt or Jenkins (who would be totally inked in by now but for the need to honor Eastwood again this year).

Best Supporting Actress - This Oscar category was always a little fuzzy and it got a shake up. Taraji P Henson (adorable in Benjamin Button) scores as does her competition Marisa Tomei and a somewhat surprise Vera Farmiga for the very buzz-less Nothing but the Truth. The major snub: No Rosemarie DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married. They also ignored that great movie for screenplay so the BFCA have dealt it kind of a painful blow today. Penélop Cruz and Viola Davis are probably battling it out for the actual Oscar. Unless of course Kate Winslet repeats her nod here for The Reader. And if she wins the Oscar for that film the famous Extras skit will become EVEN MORE BRILLIANT than it already was)

I don't think we really need another film about the Holocaust, do we? It's like. How many have there been, you know? 'We get it. It was grim. Move on.' No, I'm doing it because but I've noticed if you do a film about the Holocaust --guaranteed an Oscar. I've been nominated four times. Never won. The whole world is going "Why hasn't Kate won one?!?"

Best Supporting Actor is my Oscar prediction lineup minus Michael Shannon (remember that Rev Road shutout. It needs to have a comeback at the Globes and SAG or it could be DOA when it opens in theaters for Christmas) plus RDJ's hilarious Tropic Thunder star turn. Yay! This is the only category in which the Broadcast talking heads didn't allow themselves a hedge bet with a sixth nominee so maybe they're confident that it's the exact Oscar lineup.

oh yes and their "Best Pictures of December" nominees with the number of nominations they received.

"Silent Light" screened at MOMA for a week in the beginning of autumn, and I have continually kicked myself over missing every screening (it was just one of those weeks when other, more temporary, plans took precedence).

Fortunately, it will be playing at the Film Forum January 7th - 20th (bless those programmers--I can't believe Chantal Akerman's absolutely sublime "Jeanne Dielman" will finally get a legitimate, week-long release in late January).

I've seen nearly every contender other than "I've Loved You So Long" (seeing "The Wrestler" tonight). I have been very apprehensive; I sincerely worry that it will simply be Kristin Scott Thomas playing "deep spacey." I don't know if I can tolerate two hours of that.

i think the actress locks are streep and hathaway next leo and jolie then blanchett then winslet and scott thomas way out behind backinsale,hawkins and knightley whom i think was v v good in the duchess.

i can't answer the question because i didn't see the duchess. thus i can't back up your thesis... though certainly it wouldn't be that hard to be better than Jolie (the further I get away from Changeling the worse the movie gets... and I already thought it was a mess) I did review it but trust Nick to really dig deeper than I... his review is also all about Changeling's identity crisis and Jolie's indecisions and wrong decisions in playing the role.

but as for Knightley being better than Hawkins. I can't say since i didn't see it but that would mean that she's just marvelous because Hawkins certainly was.

I just found out these awards are really accurate on predicting Oscar nominees. That would worry me but Winslet's buzz is too strong for Globes (and Oscars afterwards) to ignore. And Beckinsale?? I don't consider her a threat.

Vis-a-vis the Knightley question: she's getting no buzz because no one loves the film. From what I heard it had a very quiet release in the US and I think something like that needs audience to amp it up (Knightley's more celeb than critical darling). Also, Knightley is good but not particularly exciting, and I think- from what AMPAS nommed last year- that that time period in period pieces has finally been moved away from. When they nommed her for P&P she was the Hot Young Thing- a la Hathaway and Hawkins this year. (And Hawkins was just leagues better, to be honest.)

On a different note: I'm not sure how I feel about the KST omittance. I love her and would love a resergence in love for her (it's been ages) but the film and, sadly, her perf. both left me cold. And with the plethora of contenders... maybe it'd be good to let others take the spots. (He says without having seen most of them yet.)

Does anyone here feel like Anne Hathaway has a genuine shot at winning best actress? I think that Winslet will still be nominated, but what with omissions for "Revolutionary Road" left and right, a win might be out of the question at this point. Plus, category confusion with "The Reader" isn't helping. Thomas is also missing out on some crucial nominations.I believe it's now between Hathaway and Streep for the Oscar.

well, it doesn't quite explain everything. For instance: It's harder to see the features here in NYC than it is in LA but I've already been to it once and there were several other opportunities complete with the cast members actually present and talking to the guild or association members. So...

Does anyone here feel like Anne Hathaway has a genuine shot at winning best actress? I think that Winslet will still be nominated, but what with omissions for "Revolutionary Road" left and right, a win might be out of the question at this point. Plus, category confusion with "The Reader" isn't helping. Thomas is also missing out on some crucial nominations.I believe it's now between Hathaway and Streep for the Oscar.

Before this week, I would have said no, but she's picking up more momentum lately, and I don't really see a lot of competition there for a win. I mean there's plenty of competition for nominations, but I don't sense yet like I do with the other categories that there's a clear winner yet which is usually a good thing because it's no fun when it becomes so predictable. Anyhow, I thought that lack of clear frontrunner might favor Streep or Winslet, but I still feel like they need to pull off a Helen Mirren like sweep especially Streep if they want to win because they just make it look too easy.

Then, I thought that KST would pick up most if not all of the critics awards, and because the field is so open, I thought that she would win because she's been nominated before, has been campaigning, and does the role in French. She's been snubbed quite a bit though in the past two weeks, so I'm not even sure of her nomination now since she really needed a sweep or mini-sweep to be remembered. So now I'm looking towards Melissa Leo who has been picking up quite a few critics awards and nominations. Unfortunately for her, she's not the hot young thing, so like the reviewer in the recent Melissa Leo post, since she doesn't look Charlize Theron, it hurts her chances at actually winning.

Anyway, that leaves the door open for Anne Hathaway to possibly win. I never thought she would because I thought that this year was more of a pat on the back like Knightley's nomination was, and not a real competitive nomination. As she becomes more of the few locks in this category though, and a frontrunner still really hasn't emerged yet, I think she could win.

DiCaprio could easily be snubbed. Watch. And Kate should be cautious too. Her saving grace is that voters still have "The Reader" to fall back on in supporting.

Yes, I was going for her for leading, but I think maybe the Academy might be sick of movies about how horrible the suburbs are, at least for now, or at least ones made by Sam Mendes. So I'm sort of thinking about taking her out of leading and putting her in supporting now because I think she's only going to get one nomination this year, and that she's not going to win this year either that is unless she goes leading for The Reader.

I agree. Anne Hathaway is far too young and is barely just starting her career. She'll undoubtedly win one eventually, but I fear if she wins for this performance, her chances of winning for another out-of-this-world performance is slim...

Do you know what, I honestly think that the academy would choose Meryl over Kate. The reason for this is that they too have to recognise the fact that this woman is still on the top of her game, she's received some sort of resurgence/revival/renaissance, which is still happening at this very moment and which no one could have anticipated. I presume that they know this and will acknowledge her come February, I mean it actually makes sense, receiving another oscar when she's taking on unprecedented new heights.

It's ironic for Nathaniel R to say that. On IMDB the people who HATED Jolie in A Mighty Heart LOVED her in Changeling. This film is currently an 8.1/10 average on IMDB. The film also got excellent reviews from the UK, Canadian, and French critics. It's only in the U.S. where the critics were mixed.

anon -- they must be watching a different movie than me because it was a mess. I guarantee that if clint eastwood hadn't directed it people would have noticed how all over the place and unsatisfying it was

and about people hating JOLIE in A Mighty Heart... i remain perplexed by that reaction. That film was so good and she was so good in it. But it's also not an "easy" film and it certainly isn't pandering to the masses so maybe people who wouldn't normally see an art film went to the theater to see Jolie and did not like what they saw.

Nathaniel R, why don't you just admit that the film got MIXED reviews? The British, Canadian, French, and other European critics gave it GREAT reviews. Even RT reported that if it was just U.K. critics included the film would be like 80% Fresh on RT. I think you should respect that people love the film NOT because it's Clint Eastwood. I know a lot of users on IMDB that HATE Jolie and Eastwood, but still admit to finding the film to be fantastic.