I figure it this way; if Russian tanks stop at the east bank of the Dnieper River, fine. After all, that part of Ukraine is heavily Russian.

If the tanks are in Lviv (right on the Polish/Ukrainian border), there could be a big problem. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania - all of whom share a border with Ukraine - are all NATO member states.

Poland is getting nervous right now. And Lithuania and Latvia are set to invoke Article IV of the NATO Treaty, and I suspect Poland is going to add to that chorus real soon.

3
posted on 03/01/2014 1:10:01 PM PST
by AnAmericanAbroad
(It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)

To understand what is going on here one must know that it wasn't a trade pact, but an Accession Ageement. It contained a lot more than trade; energy policy, security and military cooperation between the EU and Ukraine etc.

From Russia's point of view a trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU would have been bad enough but this was just much worse. I do not imply that what Putin has done (is doing) is correct, but given the scope of the agreement one would have expected the EU foreign ministers, Obama and Kerry to have understood how important this would be for the Russians and acted accordingly.

Sorry, the latter was a bad joke.

SB

6
posted on 03/01/2014 1:14:44 PM PST
by ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)

I believe this is about saving face, Russia can’t allow Ukraine to leave without something in return, especially, The Crimea, that if not for Khrushchev trying to make nice with the Ukrainian subjects he ruled over at Stalin’s behest, would not have even belonged to it in the first place.

Best case scenario a new deal will be worked out allowing Ukraine to join EU/NATO in exchange for ceding The Crimea back to Russia.

I don’t know why they care who the Ukraine cozies up to. How does it harm them? How does it affect Russian interests? It’s not like the Ukrainians pose a military threat to the Russians or for that matter any threat of any kind. I guess I just don’t think like an imperialist.

Remember what happened in Egypt. If Putin can keep up the pressure without allowing the situation to become a hot conflict he can just wait for the EU and IMF to very soon dismantle what is left of the Ukrainian economy. (They have done such a great job with Greece, Spain, Hungary etc etc.) Eventually there will be a new upheaval and that will be that.....

16
posted on 03/01/2014 1:20:38 PM PST
by ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)

Could it be that Obama "inspired" the protestors in the Ukraine to go overboard during the Olympics, because Putin would not use troops during that time? So, of course Putin was going to have to act swiftly after the closing ceremonies.

Are there any doubts at all that the US inspired these protests to escalate to a violent overthrow of a government?

And the fact is, this should have been nipped in the bud back around 92-93.

Yes I know they signed an agreement, but anyone with half a brain would know Russia would never give up on trying to get back The Crimea. Yeltsin was just too drunk to care.
___________________________

Exactly; it should have been dealt with twenty years ago. Yeltsin.....probably thinking “Where is vodka?” while signing the damned thing.

24
posted on 03/01/2014 1:25:41 PM PST
by AnAmericanAbroad
(It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)

There is nothing we can do. Obama is in the Whitey Hut. Liberals and left wing anti military nuts control the government. Lets just hope that China doesn’t get involved. Taiwan would be the first to go then Japan while we stand by worrying about income inequality.

Oh, yeah. And then Stalin made a pact with Hitler to divvy up Poland should war begin. But of course, the big talking fascist community organizer of the day already had plans to stab Stalin in the back.

He stirs up trouble in a nation or an area he covets, claims “Oh, ethnic Russians are practically being lynched in the streets! We must do something!” and them - BOOM - in roll the tanks.

I’ve seen this movie before. That the Western world seems so oblivious to it is frightening.

Not so much in my little part of the world, fortunately; the Czechs are all too familiar with this ruthless game Putin is playing because they’ve been the victim of it themselves. Even young Czechs, whom I teach - 18 to 20 year olds - know enough of history to say “Putin is playing right out of Hitler’s playbook” so at least there’s some people still left that understand the possible ramifications.

Of course, these same students will point out that Hitler didn’t have a nuclear arsenal to back him up, so it kind of changes things. But at least they recognize what they’re seeing.

31
posted on 03/01/2014 1:31:13 PM PST
by AnAmericanAbroad
(It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)

Best case scenario a new deal will be worked out allowing Ukraine to join EU/NATO in exchange for ceding The Crimea back to Russia.

Why would Putin ever agree to that? The deal offers him nothing, as he already has the Crimea. And I don't think Putin will ever allow what's left of the Ukraine to join NATO. No more than we would have allowed Mexico to join the Warsaw Pact.

35
posted on 03/01/2014 1:39:10 PM PST
by Leaning Right
(Why am I holding this lantern? I am looking for the next Reagan.)

“If they lost Sevastopol, they lose a lot. The Russian Navys access to the Med, the Middle East and beyond into the Atlantic is crippled.”

The Russians are not going to lose Sevastopol any more than we are going give up Gitmo. Sevastopol is more important to the Russians than Gitmo is too us.

So the Sevastopol area will go to Russia.

Putin will probably alow the Ukraine to be swalled up in the EU. $oreA$$ and his fellow looters and rapists of countries will financially ruin the Ukraine like the current poor countries of the EU in about 5 years.

The problem is that Ukraine has significant assets (coal iron ore heavy industry) as well as an enormous agricultural segment. Too it is a buffer against land invasion a traditional worry for Russia. Putin wants it all back

43
posted on 03/01/2014 1:50:09 PM PST
by Jimmy Valentine
(DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)

Intimidation has its own value, mostly domestically for Putin. He gets to look like a total badass and create the illusion that Russia is a superpower again.

But if you look beneath the surface, a good deal of it is all hat, no cattle. Their economy, aside from being a straight-up kleptocracy more akin to a vast Mafia protection racket than a free-market system, is extremely dependent on energy and resource exports. It’s a major vulnerability, economically speaking.

44
posted on 03/01/2014 1:51:22 PM PST
by AnAmericanAbroad
(It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)

Have no idea what Putin’s designs are, but if he has in mind establishing Russia as the dominate superpower this could be his opportunity. The western world will do nothing if he annexes all of the Ukraine. Doubt he’ll make any sudden military moves after that, but who knows? He may not have to. He can simply wait until the idiot Obama finishes bankrupting America and destroying our defenses. If America goes under, it’ll create a helluva problem for China (which also has dreams of becoming the dominate superpower) and big problems for the entire world for that matter. We owe so much money to China that if we default, they could be toast. Not only that, but we’re their major customer. And socialist Europe is about to collapse anyway. I think we could be in for a bit of a problem here.

A Czech friend of mine gave me an interesting analogy in regard to Putin. Stalin's biggest mistake was in trusting Hitler; Stalin assumed that Der Führer was a rational actor on the world stage. In fairness, up to the point that Operation Barbarossa began, Hitler did look like a rational actor, and a rather victorious one to boot, having conquered continental Europe. But in hindsight, we now know that Hitler was not a rational actor; he was a lunatic and a military adventurer/conqueror who had a brilliant run of the good fortunes of war. Of course, that run ran out. Here's the nub of her argument. What if we're making the same mistake regarding Putin? What if, despite appearances, Putin is not the rational actor we all assume him to be? What if he rolls into Ukraine, and then says, "Hey....Poland's right over there. What the hell?! Keep them tanks rolling, boys!" Right into NATO territory. That's the concern here in this part of Europe, and I can't say I entirely disagree with it. After all, these good people know first hand the consequences of assuming that the tyrant next door is going to be satisfied with his bowl of borscht, and then he starts eyeing your plate of pork chops, sauerkraut and potatoes.

48
posted on 03/01/2014 2:06:45 PM PST
by AnAmericanAbroad
(It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)

All very true, and now were seeing how Putin operates. He stirs up trouble in a nation or an area he covets, claims Oh, ethnic Russians are practically being lynched in the streets! We must do something! and them - BOOM - in roll the tanks. Ive seen this movie before. That the Western world seems so oblivious to it is frightening.

How PUTIN operates? How is this any different than what Obama and the RATs are doing here in the U.S. with the blacks and the queers and the mexicans? "Oblivious"? More likely it's being studied in detail with an eye toward tweaking their operations in the U.S. (I'm honestly having difficulty deciding whether to put a sarc tag on this or not.)

49
posted on 03/01/2014 2:18:35 PM PST
by NurdlyPeon
(It is the nature of liberals to pervert whatever they touch.)

Ukrainians have no love for Russkies. I can’t imagine any Russian soldier wanting to die fighting Ukrainians but I can imagine a Ukrainian soldier wanting to kill a Russian soldier in defense of Ukraine.

50
posted on 03/01/2014 2:24:12 PM PST
by jmacusa
("Chasing God out of the classroom didn't usher in The Age of Reason''.)

Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.