Low pressure area becoming better defined

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft as well as surface observations indicate that the broad low pressure area, currently located over the eastern Dominican Republic, is becoming better defined. Due to upper-level westerly winds, however, the associated showers and thunderstorms are poorly organized at this time.

Image from NOAA

Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and the center of the low is expected to move into the Atlantic north of the Dominican Republic during the next 24 hours. This system could become a tropical depression at any time over the next couple of days as it moves slowly northwestward.

Whether or not this system becomes a tropical depression, it will continue to produce very heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic through Monday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system and any products issued by their respective weather forecast offices.