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Background: After leading the minors with a 1.66 ERA in 2002, Nelson made a seamless move to Double-A. He ranked sixth in the Southern League in ERA before dominating in 11 late-season relief appearances at Richmond. He moved to the bullpen in case the Braves needed him for the playoffs.

Strengths: Nelson has impressive life on all his pitches. His heavy heater sits in the 92-93 mph range and shows outstanding movement, not unlike Greg Maddux’ slower fastball. He also has a nasty hard slider that looks at times like a slurve.

Weaknesses: Command, particularly with his fastball, remains Nelson’s greatest need. While he keeps his pitches down, he must improve the location of all his pitches in the strike zone. Though his changeup continues to develop, it's still inconsistent.

The Future: The Braves believe Nelson is on the verge of reaching the majors. He'll return to the rotation in 2004 in Triple-A, and could see some big league action by the end of the season. Atlanta's bullpen is unsettled, so that could be where he gets his first opportunity.

The Braves have some issues with their bullpen, im guessing Reitsma will be a setupman for Smoltz. Good trade for the Reds, at least we know DanO isnt Jim Bowden.

Originally Posted by savafan

I've read books about sparkling vampires who walk around in the daylight that were written better than a John Fay article.

What I like especially about this trade is that it shows that O'Brien is re-evaluating guys who were previously considered mainstays on the team. That's the only way the Reds will get better. I agree with O'Brien's judgment on Reitsma and think he got a lot of value in return.

Reitsma, of course, is 26, in his first year of arbitration at $900k with two more to follow, and was in place to be a setup man with the Reds this year. He has the potential to start, but has not had sustained success in the role (although he's now in his fourth year, and should still have a chance to improve).

Nelson is 22 (23 in August), 6-2/200#, and was a second-round pick in 2000 out of a Maryland high school. His breakout year was 2002, where he posted a 1.72 ERA in the Florida State League (High-A). This led the entire minor leagues (!). He had a solid season in 2003 at AA Greenville (in the rotation with Matt Belisle), going 8-10, 3.18 in 23 games, 20 starts. He allowed only 106 hits in 119 innings, but had a mediocre BB/K ratio of 45/77. The Braves moved him to AAA Richmond at the end of the year, where he had a 1.88 ERA in 11 relief appearances. He struck out more than a batter per inning in the low minors, but his K ratio has dropped as he climbs the ladder. Baseball America said he was a "stud" and close to the majors. According to Baseball Prospectus, he throws sliders half the time, which strains his elbow. They think he's a short reliever in the Scott Williamson mold, given his accompanying hard sinker and low-90s fastball. Composite minor league numbers: 4 years, 34-26, 3.04 ERA, 468 IP, 399 H (7.7 H/9), 165 BB (3.2 BB/9), 404 K (7.8 K/9).

Bong is 23 (24 in July). He's a stringbean at 6-3/175#, and is of course Korean. In his first full season in 2003, he pitched out of the Braves' bullpen and went 6-2, 5.05 in 44 games. 57 IP, 56 H, 31 BB, 47 K, 8 HR. By all accounts, he's got a very good changeup, but is still working on a curveball. He was apparently an outfielder when he left Korea (1997), and has only been pitching for five or six years. He started almost exclusively in the minors, compiling a 38-33 record with a 3.33 ERA. 610 IP, 592 H (8.8 H/9), 211 BB (3.1 BB/9), and 550 K (8.1 K/9). Most of this was compiled in A-ball, as he made only three appearances in AAA and twenty-seven in AA before making the club out of spring training in 2003. BP likes him fairly well, and points out that changeup artists are rare as relief pitchers, liking him as a future 3-4-5 starter. (I guess that goes for Reitsma as well, eh?)

Bong is obviously cheaper than Reitsma, two years from arbitration eligibility, and appears to have similar stuff. He's also left-handed. And Nelson is a very solid pitching prospect who should start the year in Louisville.

On paper, I can't criticize this trade. The Reds dealt from a position of strength (right-handed relievers) and appear to have diversified their bullpen while simultaneously cutting $500k off the payroll and strengthening the pitching upside in the high minors. Reitsma is likely to put up an above-average ERA out of the bullpen for Atlanta in 2004, but he'd then make multi-millions. As long as neither Bong nor Nelson are injured or something, the Reds appear as though they've bettered their team going forward.

Did I mention all the dope jokes? There's some fan upside, too, although the chicks will miss Chris.

Am I on the right board? The Cin-cinn-ati Reds did something that we all like? This cannot be. This scares me to death. I'm thinking that Reitsma will be the next Randy Johnson since we all like this trade....

Seriously though. Great trade in my mind.
The Braves are trying to win this year and we are trying to win in 2 years. That is what this is all about and I don't have a problem with it...unless we trade Dunn and Kearns for a bucket of money.

Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

OK, let's combine these evaluations on Nelson and see where it leads us.

From BA (I think):

Nelson has impressive life on all his pitches. His heavy heater sits in the 92-93 mph range and shows outstanding movement, not unlike Greg Maddux’ slower fastball. He also has a nasty hard slider that looks at times like a slurve... Command, particularly with his fastball, remains Nelson’s greatest need. While he keeps his pitches down, he must improve the location of all his pitches in the strike zone. Though his changeup continues to develop, it's still inconsistent.

From BP:

Nelson relies mostly on his slider, throwing it more than half the time. His translated strikeout rates have declined at each level, but that's the predictable, troubling result of relying too heavily on a breaking pitch.

My attempted translation: Nelson's enamored with his slider because minor-league hitters can't hit it. At the major-league level, he'll need to use his fastball more, particularly since it appears to be a good one. If he can improve his command and his changeup, he could be a pretty good starter; if he can't, he could still be useful in the bullpen.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Rotoworld.com writeups

Originally posted by Chip R Que? I don't read Rotoworld.

They make quite a bit of mistakes from time to time, and it's funny to read. Plus, they know no more than you or I when it comes to evaluating talent, or knowing where a player is most likely to end up at (IE: Bong in Louisville, it's just a guess .. but considering our lefty troubles, I highly doubt he'll start the year in Louy. Atleast, I hope he doesn't.)

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