Full Spectrum Baseball » Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com
Covering the entire spectrum of fantasy baseball, MLB news and sabermetrical breakdownsThu, 19 Mar 2015 16:08:20 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1The Wood That Makes It Goodhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/30/the-wood-that-makes-it-good/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/30/the-wood-that-makes-it-good/#commentsThu, 30 May 2013 17:00:21 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6739If you have Travis Wood on your fantasy team, you are a lucky duck. For real! Travis Wood has been the bargain of bargains at the fantasy starting pitcher slot this season. Even I, a man with a certain fondness for Wood and fantasy crush on the entire Cubs rotation, could not, would not, have predicted the start that Travis Wood is having. The thing now, from the fantasy baseball view, is can we hope to get out of Wood for the remainder of the season? A valid question that will be asked of any player who puts up good numbers, virtually out of nowhere. If you are currently a proud Travis Wood owner you are probably, even as you read this, wondering what the future holds for the Cubs’ wily southpaw. If you’re not, you probably should be. Okay, now that all Travis Wood owners have this thought rattlin’ around their noggins, time to drop some knowledge on them.

Personally, I have liked Travis Wood for a couple of seasons now. “Why,” you may ask. Well, I don’t really know. Travis Wood is just one of those pitchers I like, but cannot quite pinpoint the reason for this “liking”. Other members of this club include such big names as Chris Volstad and Brett Cecil. I guess Cecil sort of has K potential, but really none of them offer anything in the way of star, or even above-average, potential in real or fantasy baseball. They are not guys I peg as sleepers at the beginning of a season, but rather, guys who I might spot start here and there, at best. I am a K/9 guy, so liking Wood is very strange for me. Wood’s career K/9 is 6.78, so he should not even be on mike likability radar. But he is. Now, K-rate aside, there are pitchers who can make do whilst allowing more contact. We call those guys crafty. Picture a Mark Buehrle type. A solid innings eater, who won’t be especially flashy, but will get the job done for your team, more often than not. The key for those types of pitchers is to keep the ball on the ground and not give up hard hit balls. So, does Wood fall into this Buehlre-esque (not to be confused with burlesque) mold? Maybe?

Here are Wood’s career numbers- 21-25, 3.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.78 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 33.5 GB% and a 71.9 LOB%. Seems sort of like a Buehrle like guy, right? I mean, personally I might be a bit concerned about the ground ball rate, but Wood seems to be working with it, for the most part. Wood’s career line drive rate is right around 20%, which seems about average. Now let’s look at Wood’s 2013 numbers at this point in the season.

In 2013, Wood is 4-2, with a 2.24 ERA, .93 WHIP, 5.82 K/9 and a 2.83 BB/9. So compared to his career and, pretty much projected, numbers the K-rate, just like the ERA and WHIP, are down significantly. So what’s changed? Well, his ground ball rate, while still lower than I’d like, is actually up over five percent from 2012. More ground balls, in theory, will generally help a pitcher’s cause, that is for darned sure! Wood is also walking slightly fewer hitters, down a little (about .11 per nine innings) from his career number. So those numbers will help a bit, but the biggest improvement right now for ol’ Travis is his pitching with men on base.

To this point in 2013, Wood has a LOB% of 82. Eighty-frickin’-two, folks! For those that may not know, that is quite a good strand rate. Not only as that more than 10% higher than Wood’s normal numbers, but it is almost 10 higher than the league average! Now, it does not take a rocket surgeon to realize that preventing baserunners from scoring is a good idea, but the question is, can Wood sustain this rate? It’s really hard to say yes to that question. I don’t think there are many, if any, people who believe in that rate continuing. Obviously, if you start letting more baserunners score, your ERA will rise. The thing is, even if the strand rate goes down to the league average or in that vicinity, remember Wood has not been allowing a ton of runners to reach base. So even if Wood’s strand rate was right around league average his ERA would still be right around three. Now before you get all crazy and start telling people I said his ERA would be around three the rest of the way, just wait a tick.

I am not saying Wood will still be tossing up these ace like numbers. throughout the rest of this season. Wood’s ERA should finish in the mid threes though, which is a bit of alright! Wood’s been throwing a cutter more frequently, and with more consistency, which has definitely contributed to his success thus far. So while he will not keep up his current pace, I feel like he will definitely pitch better than some of the current projections that have his ERA the season being up over four. I need a few more strikeouts for my liking, but he definitely has some fantasy upside the rest of the way.

If you have Travis Wood on your roster, his price may not get much higher than it is now and it would definitely behoove you to test trade market waters. That being said, it is still tough to say who believes in Wood enough to give you a premium return in a deal. Wood has been pitching very well dating back to the end of last season, but there is just no track record or even any sort of expectations that have popped up, pointing to this sort of performance. It is definitely worth testing the waters. Wood should be good (I’m a poet and I don’t even know it!) going forward, just not quite this good. Hey, put it out there and see what happens, I mean there’s always one in every league, right? Let’s just hope you are not that one. I mean in the words of Mike McDermott, “If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/30/the-wood-that-makes-it-good/feed/0The National League Shortstop Revolutionhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/20/the-national-league-shortstop-revolution/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/20/the-national-league-shortstop-revolution/#commentsMon, 20 May 2013 15:29:19 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6683exceeding expectations.]]>Recently there has been a rush of hot new shortstops, primarily in the National League. Jean Segura, Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorious are the three hottest new shortstops in the majors. They have all had a bit of prospect hype surrounding them and thus far they have actually been exceeding expectations. The thing is, it is always tough to gauge skill level or future performance based on an initial small sample size. Truth be told, they are all currently hitting the ball quite well. But is this just a hot start to their respective major league careers or are the offensive numbers legit and a nice indication of things yet to come?

For Segura, the primary piece the Brew Crew received in return for Zack Greinke, there were some mixed reviews at the time of the trade in regards to whether or not the Brewers got enough in return for Greinke. Here is a quick evaluation of Segura from Baseball Prospect Nation, right around the time of the Grienke trade:

“At the plate, Segura is a plus to plus-plus hitter for average with definitively good gap power. There are scouts that believe he can have fringe-average home-run power down the line, making him a high average guy with plenty of extra-base hits.”

From this evaluation and plenty of others I have seen, Segura would make a very solid top of the order hitter. There is that “fringe home-run power” suggested above, but should we have expected it this soon? Segura’s current isolated power sits at .229 thanks in part to six home-runs, while many preseason projections projected a home run range of five to ten over around four-hundred at bats. Segura had yet to post an ISO over .110 anywhere above A-ball. I would say the current .229 ISO is bound to drop, or is it? Well, yeah, it probably is, but maybe not as much as many may think. I mean, it is possible that the power, generally the last skill to develop, has arrived for Mean Jean, right? Sure, it is. I am not sold on the power just yet, but the kid can make contact, that’s for darned sure! Now Andrelton Simmons is a bit of a different story, altogether.

Simmons is a slick fielding shortstop who will flash some nice leather in the field, but as far as hitting is concerned, he is not expected to be overly spectacular. The preseason projections had a slash lines somewhere in the neighborhood of .270/.320/.377. Nothing flashy, but nothing atrocious either, especially with his glove. I, for one, felt like those slash numbers were a tad bit high. Thus far Andrelton’s slash line is .250/.294/.386. However, Simmons is heating up a bit at the plate, lately, showing some power at the plate. In May, small sample size though it is, the slash line for Simmons is .267/.283/.489 . Everything is a bit better, but hold the phone a sec, here! A .489 slugging percentage? Wow! Talk about out of character and exceeding expectations, right?! Through the end of April, Simmons had four extra base hits. Two doubles and two home runs. That was over the span of 87 at bats. In May, over 45 at bats, Simmons already has two home runs and four doubles. According to this wonderful piece by Eno Sarris over at FanGraphs Andrelton (I really do love that first name!) has been receiving hitting tips from Justin Upton, which is not a bad place to receive tips from and may also have helped launch that recent Simmons mini power surge. Now before everyone tries to go out and swindle some unsuspecting fantasy owner in a trade for Simmons, it is interesting to note that all six extra-base hits came in a four game span. In the next four games after that he was 1-16 and the one hit was a single. So, it seems a bit premature to start jumping on any Andrelton bandwagons juuuuusssst yet, unless you are expecting a child and looking for a cool baby name. What I find to be a somewhat less cooler name? Didi.

While I am not a huge fan of Didi has a guy’s name, I think Gregorious is kinda nice! Working on his nickname, I am thinking maybe the Gregorious B.I.G? Well, we can work on that later. Gregorious has come outta the gate smokin’ hot. Didi was 6-13 with 2 dingers in his first three games and he was quickly swooped up in fantasy baseball leagues all across the land. Here is Marc Hulet’s read on Didi:

‘“a gifted fielder, [with] outstanding range, a plus arm and excellent actions.” On his hitting, Hulet added that “he gets pull happy but has some surprising pop from the left side”.

There was nothing pointing even to a remote amount of pop from any side of the plate from Didi during is minor league stay. So has the pop arrived? It is possible, sure. I don’t think the power Didi is showing right now is gonna keep up, but he should be a solid hitter. Gregorious has three home runs thus far, but really over a full season you should only expect 10-12 home runs, at this point in his career.

So at this point, I would say, power aside, Gregorious and Segura are the real deal as far as hitting is concerned. They should both post some good XBH numbers without a ton of longballs. As far as Simmons is concerned, he is a great glove man, but not quite there at the plate. Offensively, I would say, Simmons’ has an Omar Vizquel-esque hitting numbers. So drink it in! Welcome the shortstop revolution!

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/20/the-national-league-shortstop-revolution/feed/0Field of Streams: Fantasy Pitching Optionshttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/20/field-of-streams-fantasy-pitching-options-2/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/20/field-of-streams-fantasy-pitching-options-2/#commentsMon, 20 May 2013 15:15:43 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6708Yes, yes, yes, it is that time again! Time to take a look at some fantasy pitching options for the upcoming week. The following pitchers have a great chance of being available in your league and may just be the key to fantasy victory.

Edwin Jackson, CHC- E-Jax has had a bumpy 2013 with the Cubbies so far, but I have always been a fan of his work. Jackson is not an ace, by any means, but should certainly be a solid fantasy option at the SP slot. Well, E-JAx is 1-6 with an ERA over five on the season, but he really has not pitched that poorly. Really, I’m serious! The K/9 is over eight and the xFIP and SIERA are both under four. The struggle has been with men on base, as Jackson’s LOB% is under 60 right now. Jackson will pitch at Pittsburgh this week, which is no gimme match up for him, but I like the odds of him righting his ship so to speak in this one.

Brandon McCarthy, ARI- After a slow start with the D-Backs, McCarthy is really starting to settle in. In McCarthy’s last two starts he has thrown 17 scoreless innings, 17?! Now those innings were against the Phillies and the lowly Marlins, so let’s not go too overboard with these outings. McCarthy should be much better than his early season numbers, and a solid three or maybe four, fantasy starter. But this week McCarthy has the Padres, so you can expect another ace like outing from him this week.

Tom Koehler, MIA- Do I know a ton about Koehler? No. What I do know is he has rattled off back-to-back decent starts for the Fish. On Saturday, against the D-backs, he hurled six strong innings allowing one earned run on three hits, while walking only two and striking out seven. Do I think Koehler is as good as those numbers indicate? Eh, not really. However, TK has had back-to-back solid starts and he draws the White Sox this week. The ChiSox have struggled producing runs this season and while they have cut down on the Ks, they are still striking out with great aplomb. Now the one drawback is the Marlins are not known for providing run support, so this may not be a great chance at a “W”, but you should get some help with your peripherals.

Travis Wood, CHC- Travis Wood, much like life (according to Madonna), is a mystery. I like Travis Wood, always have, but I am still a bit on the fence believing in his early season numbers. Wood is 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA and a WHIP of .92. I can’t imagine Wood can keep these numbers up, and judging by the percent he is owned in most fantasy leagues, I am not alone. Wood is more likely to have an ERA in the high threes. Wood has a LOB% of 80% and a ground ball rate below 40% and is not a strike out pitcher. Some sort of regression should be on its way and I feel like a start against Wood’s former mates in Cincy this week, may be where it begins.

Felix Doubront, BOS- It should be widely known that Doubront is a favorite of mine. I was high on Felix in the preseason. With a solid xFIP and K-rate, Doubront was high on my sleeper list. Now the numbers have not been great for Felix this season, although the xFIP, SIERA and K/9 were not terrible, until a clunker against Texas and a bad relief outing. The biggest issue has been the walks. Doubront has been all over the place, walking almost six batters per nine innings. This is a wild card stream for sure, but you can count on the Ks, especially against the White Sox. The White Sox have struggled to score runs, so while I can’t fully support this stream, I do think there is a 50-50 shot Doubront gets a quality start in the Windy City

Wandy Rodriguez and Francisco Liriano, PIT- I am lumping these two Pirate southpaws together. Both are similar this week in streaming. Both pitchers face the Cubs this week, at home. Liriano has looked sharp in his first two starts since returning from the disabled list. Sure they were against the Mets and Brewers who have not been world beaters at the plate, as both are towards the bottom of the league in runs scored in May. Wandy’s last two starts have been just as good, lacking the strikeouts, also against the Mets and Brewers. Now the Cubs have actually started to score a few runs here and there over the last couple of weeks, but nevertheless I would say roll the dice on both Bucs starters this week.

Jason Vargas, LAA- Jason Vargas is far from a flashy fantasy pitching option, to say the least, and the numbers pretty much back this statement up. Vargas is solid however. and I like him this week, because he is matched up against the Royals. The Royals are in the bottom third of the league in most offensively productive categories, so I think you may see one of Vargas’ best starts of 2013.

Scott Kazmir, CLE- There are still plenty of seats available on the Scott Kazmir bandwagon folks. Sure Kaz was roughed up by the Phils in his last outing, but most of his starts have been excellent. Kazmir’s velocity has been good as has K-rate and he has two starts this week. The first one is a no-brainer start for Kazmir as he faces the punchless Mariners, but the second start is against the BoSox and this one is iffy. I would take the first start against the Ms and hold off against the start against Boston.

Andrew Cashner, SD- The K-rate is lower than I would expect from Cash-money thus far, but the ERA has been solid. Cashner’s xFIP, SIERA and strand rate point to bit of an ERA regression, AC heads out to the desert this week to face the D-backs. This match up is tough to gauge for Cashner, but I think, if I had to, I would say roll the dice on this one.

Hector Santiago, CWS- Santiago has been up and down as a starter in 2013. The up? 12.1 innings pitched against the Mets and Twins, allowing one earned run, striking out 14. The down? 3.1 innings pitched against the Angels on Saturday, in which he allowed four earned runs. Ups, downs, what have yous, bottom line is Santiago starts against the Marlins this week and frankly that is really probably all I had to say because the Marlins offense is not even close to good right now.

Justin Grimm, TEX- Seems like “Reaper” has appeared here quite a bit and with good reason, he is not quite worth rostering year round. Plus Grimm is still outpitching his projections, but his ERA and WHIP thus far are about on par with how he is currently pitching. In other words, Grimm’s ERA and WHIP seem accurate thus far. Love him or hate him, Grimm faces the Mariners this week, and while they are not the Marlins, this is more or less a great match up for Grimm.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN- Arroyo has always been a middle of the road, reliable, innings eating pitcher. You will not get a lot of strikeouts, but Bronson also rarely gets completely rocked when he takes the hill. Arroyo has given up more than four earned runs in only one start this season and has only gone less than six innings in one start this season. In the one start Arroyo did not go six innings, he went five. There is never anything spectacular about Arroyo’s numbers, but he does manage a lot of quality starts, Arroyo faces the Cubs this week and for some reason I like this one. Cubs are putting runs on the board, but I like the chance for a QS and a “W”.

Well, that’s all I got this week, good luck, godspeed and happy streaming!

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/20/field-of-streams-fantasy-pitching-options-2/feed/0Field of Streams: Fantasy Baseball Pitching Optionshttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/14/field-of-streams-fantasy-baseball-pitching-options-10/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/14/field-of-streams-fantasy-baseball-pitching-options-10/#commentsTue, 14 May 2013 14:46:25 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6679Welcome, welcome! Time for another edition of Field of Streams, a weekly look at some viable and some not so viable fantasy baseball streaming options for the upcoming week. Is Wood good? Is there a Grimm pitching option this week? Is Francisco Liriano back? Francisco? That’s fun to say! Anyways, away we go. Please remember all stats are going into Saturday, May 11th’s action. Enjoy!

Travis Wood, CHC- In the words of Cosmo Kramer, “It’s the Wood that makes it good. Not only has every one of Travis Wood’s starts this season been of the quality variety, but he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one start. Wood is readily available in most formats, so clearly most people are overlooking his numbers. Well, maybe they just aren’t buying in just yet. Although Wood is sporting a 2.33 ERA, both his xFIP and SIERA are over four and he is only inducing ground balls at a 40% rate. That ground ball rate, a K/9 which, at best, should hover around seven on a good day and a BABIP of under .200, points to Wood receiving a great deal of good luck. Wood has two starts this week, at home versus the Rockies and the Mets. The Rockies have the second highest slugging percentage in the league and the Mets are well, middle of the pack offensively. I would avoid the Rockies start and I am about 50-50 on the Mets start.

Justin Grimm, TEX- Despite a clunker against the Brew Crew in his last outing, Grimm is still very much in the streaming discussion. Grimm’s overall numbers are still very good, with a K/9 over nine and a SIERA of 3.62 points to him being a very serviceable fantasy pitching option. The pundits still feel like the ERA will be closer to the five range and the K-rate will decline, but for now “Reaper” is still looking good. Although it is a two start week for Grimm, this week, I am not full on board with streaming him as he faces two lineups who have been very good offensively, the Athletics and the Tigers. I would actually take Grimm at Oakland but use him at your own risk against the Tigers.

Roberto Hernandez, TB- On the surface, Roberto’s numbers are nothing spectacular. Hernandez is 1-4, with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, but his SIERA is 3.25 and his K/9 is over nine. There is nothing pointing to this being the norm for Hernandez, but if he keeps pitching the way he is, he should continue to be a good spot start option. Hernandez throws against the Os at Camden Yards this upcoming week. The Orioles have scored the third most runs in the majors this season and actually do not strike out a ton. I like Hernandez for occasional starts, but would steer clear this week.

Francisco Liriano, PIT- Welcome back Francisco Liriano! Fresh of the DL, Liriano was a bit of alright against the Mets. Liriano pitched 5.1 innings, allowing one earned run on six hits, striking out nine and walking just two. Liriano will lock horns with the Brewers this week, a team that is fifth in the majors in OPS, so I wouldn’t be 100% about this start, but I feel confident in saying Liriano is about a 75-80% shot at a quality start here.

Dan Straily, OAK- Okay, okay, so Straily’s lat outing was, well, awful, sure. Here’s the thing though, ol’ Danny boy is still sporting a SIERA under 3.50 and a K/9 over ten, making him a favorite of mine. While I do like Straily, I would steer clear of this week’s outing against the Rangers and wait for a more favorable outing to spot start him.

John Lackey, BOS- Judging by the ownership percentage in ESPN and Yahoo!, many people are not buying into Slackey’s resurgence. Well, seems like almost every Boston starter is throwing well to start the season and while I do not expect them to keep up this pace, I do think they will continue to provide some quality pitching. Lackey has two starts this week, against the rays and Twinkies and I expect two good starts right there with chance for some “Ws”.

Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE- Yes it is true, Ubaldo’s overall numbers still look bad, but what you may not have noticed is, Ubaldo has actually put together a couple of nice consecutive starts. Now, as I write this Jimenez is pitching against Detroit and that could get messy, sure, but he has a start this upcoming week against the Mariners, which is a favorable start for most SPs. Although I am not completely convinced of Ubaldo’s turnaround just yet, it is the Mariners and I think he can pull off a quality start there.

Hector Santiago, CWS- K/9. enough said. No? Yeah, you’re right. How about a K/9 of 8.44, a sub-two ERA and a 3.24 SIERA? Now, Santiago may not be mainstay in the rotation, but after pretty much dominating the Mets in his last start, it may be worth considering in the future. At the very least, Santiago is slated to start Monday against the Twinkies so I have no problem saying, “stream away!”

Chris Tillman, BAL- Tillman does not have “ace” numbers, but he has put together four straight quality starts. Now, although in those starts the peripherals were not great and show that Tillman may be getting a bit lucky, he does draw the Padres this week and they are not exactly world beaters at the plate, so go ahead and get a start outta Tillman this week.

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/14/field-of-streams-fantasy-baseball-pitching-options-10/feed/0Yovani Gallardo And The No “K” Corralhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/08/yovani-gallardo-and-the-no-k-corral/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/08/yovani-gallardo-and-the-no-k-corral/#commentsWed, 08 May 2013 14:36:21 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6614Sometimes you may not notice certain things about certain players because you don’t pay attention to their every at bat, inning pitched, or whatever. Even in this wonderful age, where so much information is at our fingertips at virtually all times, things can slip past and go unnoticed to the baseball-loving masses. I mean, sure, if it is a “superstar” that is struggling mightily or a mighty struggler producing like a “superstar” then, yeah, the media and talking heads will notice and sort of force feed this information down our proverbial throats. However, for the majority of players, you know the tweeners or those on the cusp of stardom or, for that matter, mediocrity, certain statistics or information can be widely missed. All of this, as you should have guessed from the title, brings to me to the ever talented, Yovani Gallardo.

First, let me set the scene, even though many of you reading this are probably familiar with YoGa’s tale. Yovanni Gallardo broke into the majors with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007, with ace-like potential. A young stud ready to become the Brewers’ ace of the future. Well, Yovani has never quite made the jump from very good to superstardom. Gallardo has been very solid in his almost six (he missed almost all of 2008) major league seasons with Milwaukee. Gallardo has not posted an ERA over four since coming onto the scene, however he also has not posted an ERA below 3.52 in the majors. Okay, well, YoGa did have an ERA of 1.88 in ’08, but that was in only four starts, so I am not really going to count that, if you don’t mind. Of course, as you may also know, I don’t hold complete faith in the statistic that is ERA, so to really paint you a picture, his SIERA has fallen between 3.22 and 4.08 in those seasons. Surprisingly, that 4.08 SIERA was during that extremely short ’08 season, so again, I don’t hold much stock in that year’s numbers. Regardless, you can kind of see that Gallardo was decent, solid, or any number of synonyms for decent or solid, but never quite made the leap to stardom. Many probably thought of Yovani as an ace coming into 2013 and, to be fair, he is the Brewer’s ace. Gallardo, definitely was thought of as a guy who was very close to becoming that breakout stud picther. Gallardo has been better than a great deal of starting pitchers in his career, that is for darned sure. Gallardo’s, ERAs, WHIPs, FIPs and K/9s have regularly been a good deal ahead of the league averages each season that he has pitched. Still, Yovani was not quite in that first tier of starting pitchers and there were still folks waiting for a big breakout season from the Brewers’ ace.

The Brewers tried to stack the cards in their favor, by adding Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to their rotation, which would definitely take some pressure off of young Gallardo, where he would not be expected to carry the rotation on his back. Now those guys are gone and the “ace” label was now, without question, affixed to Gallardo in Milwaukee. So would this be the breakout season? Sure, Yovani does have control issues and little lapses at times, but every picther does, at least every now and then, right? Well, fast forward to today. Gallardo, possibly poised to take the next step, has struggled a bit in this young 2013 season. Gallardo’s current ERA is 4.25, with a WHIP of 1.47, which of course will not tell us the whole story. The SIERA at 4.48 does give one pause here though. Seems like his ERA is pretty much an accurate depiction of Gallard’s season thus far. Now, it is early in the season, so generally I would not be ready to push the panic button on Yovani just yet. However, here is the thing, regardless of those fluctuating ERAs or WHIPs, bits of wildness here and there, or anything else that could be simply attributed to a slow start, my main concern falls more with Gallardo’s strikeouts, or lack thereof.

See, a lot of mistakes can me covered up/ fixed by a good strikeout picture and this tried and true mantra has certainly applied to YoGa throughout his career. Yovani Gallardo is a strikeout pitcher. Well, perhaps it should be was? Yovani Gallardo, was a strikeout pitcher. Below are YoGa’s K/9 numbers for his career coming into 2013:

2007- 8.24

2008- 7.50*

2009- 9.89

2010- 9.73

2011- 8.99

2012- 9.00

So basically throught his career Gallardo could generally be counted on to strikeout roughly a batter per inning pitched. That, right there, is a good strikeout pitcher, folks! So, what the heck (pardon my French) is happening now?

Gallardo, went into Monday night’s start not only having been very hittable in his first five starts, but posting a K/9 of 5.28. In fact in four of his first five starts, Gallardo struck out three or fewer batters. Could this be a cause for concern? Well, kind of depends on why this is happening, I suppose. First place I look, when I notice a big strikeout drop is velocity. in 2010, Gallardo’s average fastball was clocked at 92.6. It was the exact same in 2011. In 2012, it dropped almost a mile per hour, to 91.7. This year? Another drop of about a mile per hour on his average fastball, to 90.6. All of his other pitches have also dropped roughly the same amount in velocity. I am not sure this drop should be a huge concern just yet, as it is still early in the season and YoGa may need to still work the arm out a bit. I am not entirely sure, in that regards, but here is another interesting nugget, Gallardo’s four seam fastball percentage thus far in 2013 is 31.9%, which is almost ten precent less than his percentage last year. Gallardo has instead been going to the two seamer much more than he has in the past, 25.4% in ’13 as opposed to 14.5% in ’12. So, is it possible, that Gallardo is not as confident in the four seamer and or is not fooling many hitters with his two seamers? Or maybe he is just not fooling hitters, much at all? With any of his pitches? Batters are making contact on just about 75% of Yovani’s pitches they chase out of the zone. Now, I don’t have any data with how hard these balls have been hit, but considering this percentage was 65% last year and has only been higher than that once in his previous six seasons, I think we can make the general assumption that Yovani is just not baffling hitters nearly as much as he has been in the past.

Now, again, it is early and maybe this is absolutely something that can be worked on and adjusted. Heck (there’s that potty mouth of mine again), maybe it is just an early season slump that is not indicative of how the season will pan out for Gallardo. The sample size is very small and it is always dangerous to read much into early season numbers, but I think you can see some things that may bear monitoring with Gallardo as the season progresses. Gallardo did put together a very good outing on Monday, against the Pirates, and while I don’t see updated pitch data from that game, it should be pointed out that in his previous start against the Padres, his average fastball was the fastest it has been all season, at 91.4%. Interestingly, in the Padres start, Gallardo threw far more changeups than any other previous 2013 start, but also only struckout two batters, while walking five, so not sure what is really going on with Yoga. Hopefully Monday’s outing, in which he finished by striking out three of the last five batters he faced, will be more indicative of things to come for Gallardo, even if those three batters were Gaby Sanchez, Clint Barmes and Jonathan Sanchez.

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/08/yovani-gallardo-and-the-no-k-corral/feed/0Field of Streams: Fantasy Baseball Pitching Optionshttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/06/field-of-streams-fantasy-baseball-pitching-options-9/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/06/field-of-streams-fantasy-baseball-pitching-options-9/#commentsMon, 06 May 2013 14:40:54 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6629Welcome to another edition of Field of Streams, your look at some streaming options for the upcoming week in fantasy baseball. Sorry for the short little hiatus, but I am back and better, well at least probably as good as, ever! So here are my fantasy pitching streaming options for the upcoming week in fantasy baseball.

Kyle Kendrick- I will admit, I have never really been much of K-squared fan, but Kyle has certainly been getting things done this season. Kendrick is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 1.13. Now, having not been a believer in Kendrick in the past, I immediately wanted to see if these stats are legit. Well, while it does not look like the ERA is really that sustainable, but his xFIP this season is 3.65 and his SIERA is 3.95, so he has been pitching decently. Don’t expect many Ks from Kyle as his K/9 is under seven, but he could still get you some quality starts. Kendrick will get two starts this upcoming week, at San Fran and at Arizona. Both teams have been decent at scoring runs, but have wOBAs in the bottom half of the league, so I would go ahead and stream away with Kendrick this week!

Andrew Cashner- I’ve liked “Tango and” Cashner for a good amount of time now. Now aside from his ability to grow just absolutely glorious facial hair, Cashner has not been exactly spectacular thus far in 2013. Cashner is 1-3, with a 4.24 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and a K/9 under seven. The advanced stats seem to indicate that these numbers or on par with what they should to this point. The stat pundits, as I shall refer to them, however, project better numbers. Nothing eye-popping, but a K/9 over eight, maybe even close to nine, and an ERA between 3.60-3.75. Cashner also has two starts this week and the best news is that first start is against the Marlins. The Marlins, if you don’t know, are pretty much the worst offense in baseball, so that is a must start for Cashner. Cash’s second start is against the Rays, who are 18th in the majors in runs. Rays have had their moments offensively and that could be a play it by ear start for AC, but I say go ahead and stream him this week.

Jhoulys Chacin- Chacin is fresh off the disabled list and before he was put on the shelf with an injury he was cruisin’! Chacin stands 3-0 with a sub-two ERA. Now, the numbers will not be quite as good as they are now, but Chacin’s 3.53 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA do point to him being very serviceable in the fantasy baseball spectrum. Chacin will make his second start after coming back from the disabled list next weekend at St. Louis. Chacin does not strikeout a lot of batters and the Cardinals do not strikeout much anyways. Plus the Cards tend to do pretty well scoring runs, so I am not 100% pushing Chacin this week, but depending on how your stats are looking headed into the weekend, he may be worth a shot. I would say like 60-65% chance Jhoulys has a very good start against the Cards.

Jeremy Guthrie- “Guth” is never gonna be an ace of a staff and will generally be available. Lately Guthrie has been very good at not losing. Going into Saturday, Guthrie is working on 16 straight starts where he has managed to not lose. With a record of 3-0 and a 3.06 ERA, “Guth” has been a delight for Kansas City in 2013. Now that is all good and well, and I am sure you will see Jeremy on here plenty, but his 4.95 FIP and .269 BABIP point to a lot of good luck, and also a big regression, for the veteran. This week Guthrie makes a triumphant return to his old stomping grounds, Camden Yard. This is not a favorable match up for the Royals righty and I would steer clear of him this week.

Jose Quintana- Quintana has looked good for the Pale Hose this season. Quintana’s 3.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP look sustainable based on his peripherals. Q’s K/9 is over seven for now, but it is more likely to hover around six. With a ground ball rate just under 50%, Jose could be living a bit dangerously from time to time, but looks like he can sustain most of the numbers that appear on his stat line. Quintana has the Halos this week and that sounds like a sort of iffy matchup, but did you know that the Angels strikeout the sixth most in baseball against lefties? Hmm? Yeah, so, there is that. I think you can expect a quality start here, but with the way the White Sox are scoring, or rather not scoring, runs, I would not bet on a “W” for “Q”.

Felix Doubront- Ah yes, Felix’s ERA is over five, but he is 3-1. Also, to be fair, much of the high ERA is due to Felix’s recent outing in Texas, in which he did not make it out of the fourth inning. Now, aside from the fact the umps were squeezing Doubront a bit Friday night in Arlington, Doubront has generally been much better than his numbers would have you believe. Felix has a K/9 of 10.33 which is good for ninth in the majors amongst starters. Doubront is also sporting a FIP under three, so you can see the potential is there. Seems Felix’s biggest problem has been control and getting into too many deep counts, so long outings may not be something you will see a bunch, but he will almost definitely get you the Ks. This week’s match-up against the Twins is just plain super for Felix so I say stream away!

Justin Grimm- “The Reaper” has been the kiss of death for opposing hitters this season. Grimm is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a K/9 over 9. Now the K rate should drop, and the ERA should rise quite a bit, but based on his peripherals the ERA still be in the mid to high threes at this point. The preseason projections have Justin posting an ERA over five so, it may be a matter of getting in on the good starts while you can. The “Reaper” will start at Milwaukee this week, which is not terrible, but not great. I feel pretty confident in this start for him though, so I will give the go-ahead for a Grimm stream.

Dan Straily- Straily should be readily available since he currently has an ERA over six. So what you should also know is he has a SIERA of 1.88 and an xFIP of 2.17! Wow! Couple that with a whopping BABIP of .370, a K/9 of 13.50 and you can see that the current numbers are due to get better. This week Straily will head to Seattle to face the Mariners, which seems like a very good place to stream him.

John Lackey- Well the return from injury for Lackey was going well, until his, well, next injury. So Lackey’s back from his new injury and hoping to build on those good numbers he has already posted this season. John Farrell and or Juan Nieves may just be some sort of pitcher whisperers, cause the Sox starting rotation has been quite good. Lackey has an ERA, SIERA, FIP, and xFIP under three and a 10.45 K/9. Those numbers are off the charts for Lacker and probably not so sustainable, but his start this week against Minnesota, so I think they will be sustainable enough for this start.

So there are some viable streaming options for you for the upcoming week. Have fun streaming, be safe and keep on truckin’!

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/05/06/field-of-streams-fantasy-baseball-pitching-options-9/feed/0Field of Streams: Fantasy Pitching Optionshttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/04/15/field-of-streams-fantasy-pitching-options/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/04/15/field-of-streams-fantasy-pitching-options/#commentsMon, 15 Apr 2013 17:12:59 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6532Well, the 2013 season is just about two weeks complete which means it’s time for the inaugural Field of Streams post! That’s right folks, you can tune in right here each week for a look at some viable, and even some not so viable, fantasy baseball streaming options for the upcoming week. Now, it is still a little tough early in the season to sort out what we can believe statistics wise, since the current sample size is rather miniscule. Nevertheless, I will press on to give you my, sometimes very sound, fantasy pitching advice. So now a look at some streaming options for the week of April 15th-April 21st!

Bud Norris, Astros- Yes, yes. If you have been following me at all, you probably know I have a soft spot for this big lug. Norris’ home numbers last season have been well documented by, well, me. This week he has two starts, one of which is at the Juice Box. Norris is already off to a very solid start this season, posting a sub two ERA through three starts. Of course his Ks/9 are down, sitting below seven and his BABIP is .231, so he has not been as lights out as the low ERA may indicate, but still, not a terrible start. Norris has a home start next weekend against the Tribe, which I have no problem green-lighting. Start number one of the week however is against Oakland, and the Athletics have been red hot at the plate, leading the majors in OPS. Norris did start one game against Oakland already and did not go so great. Now while only two of the five runs Norris gave up in that start were earned, his FIP for the game was up over six. So tread with extreme caution for that start but be ready to start him against Cleveland.

Erik Bedard, Astros- Yep, another Astro. Bedard is an intriguing case as we all know he still has some good stuff left that he shows every now and again. Bedard pitched four scoreless innings against Seattle which is promising, especially when his FIP for the game was only 2.15. The thing here though, is, he is facing the A’s this week and they have been hitting pretty darned well (see above), so I would recommend steering clear of Bedard for this week.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies- Chacin has had some good moments in his young MLB career and has stayed on my radar for spot starts for a good amount of time now. Jhoulys is sporting a 1.35 in this young season, but I’m sure he won’t continue that pace. Chacin’s 5.40 K/9, 3.75 xFIP and .216 BABIP thus far, certainly point in that direction. The K-rate is pretty much what can be expected, but what is promising this season thus far is his ability to keep the ball on the ground. So far in 2013 Chacin has managed a 54.8% ground ball rate, which is up almost 20% over last season. This could account for the much better xFIP, but the ERA should still hover closer to the high threes, low fours as the season progresses. This week Cahcin matches up against the Mets and Matt Harvey at Silver Bullet Stadium. Harvey has been fairly dazzling thus far and for reasons I cannot explain, the Metropolitans have been knocking the covers off of baseballs thus far in ’13. While I am sure this is by no means Jhoulys Chacin’s last appearance in Field of Streams, I would hold off on streaming him in the upcoming week.

Travis Wood, Cubs- It’s the wood that makes it good! I like Travis Wood fine, but as far as a fantasy pitching go-to guy, well he has never really had much of an impact. The brief numbers in ’13 are very promising. Wood has a 1.46 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a 7.30 K/9 which is quite good, wouldn’t ya say? But this is not completely out of nowhere. Since August 1st Wood has had a 3.34 ERA, which falls right in line with when the Cubs staff taught him a nifty little cut fastball. But before I make it seem like Woodsy is rosterable there are some flags here. Wood’s xFIP right now is 4.43 and his ground ball rate is at 35.3%, which is not great when you pitch about half of your games in a hitter friendly park like Wrigley. Since those numbers are similar to what he put up last season, it feels like that ERA is about to skyrocket at any time. Now he could still prove a viable streaming option throughout the season, but he has the Rangers this week and while many of them have not seen much of Wood, I would still say avoid him this week

Jeremy Guthrie, Royals- Guthrie has never been lights out, that is for darned sure, but he has, for the most part, been a very solid and consistent pitcher. Guthrie is off to one of those solid starts with KC this season, posting a 3.55 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP with a nice little 7.82 number in the K/9 column. An xFIP of 3.54 shows that the ERA is probably where is should be, but based on career numbers the Ks will fall off a bit. Guthrie should be good for a spot start here and there, but this week he draws the Bravos, who are playing some good baseball right now, so actually, not here. So as far as Guthrie is concerned this week, I would say hands off, boys and girls.

Ervin Santana, Royals- Could this be the return of Big Erv? Santana has looked good in his first two starts of 2013. Obviously a small sample size, but you have to like the 3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.64 K/9 Big Erv is sporting in the early goings, but can we believe his turnaround? Well, his xFIP is 3.23, so what Santana’s doing right now, just may be legit. Ervin’s groundball rate is just a hair under 35%, but if he can manage to keep that K-rate he can get away with this. Problem is, only once in his big league career has Big Erv posted a K/9 over eight, so it is tough to say whether or not the strikeouts are for real. I would definitely keep an eye on Santana, but he heads to Fenway this week and that could spell trouble. I would watch Big Erv closely, but would be wary of starting him against the BoSox.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals- Probably not a name you expected to see on here, but what you may not have noticed is, good ol’ Jake has thrown 15 and two-thirds scoreless innings to starts this season. Now that is the kind of number that will jump right out at you when you’re hunting for streaming options, but you may want to hold up on pulling the trigger here. Westbrook has posted an xFIP of 5.52, a WHIP of 1.34, a 2.30 K/9 and a .212 BABIP. Not one of those numbers points to Westbrook being a viable fantasy pitching option, even if he does draw the Pirates this week. While only the Marlins have scored fewer runs than the Buccos and no team in the majors has a worse OPS, they have started to show signs of life on offense. So while a guy with a 0.00 ERA against a team who has not scored many runs this season seems appetizing and all, I would recommend staying away from this trap game.

Eric Stults, Padres- I immediately think of Eric Stoltz every time I hear or read the name, Eric Stults, which is obviously a major plus for him. Add in the fact he has a 9.90 K/9 and an xFIP of 2.79 thus far and my curiosity is heightened. The K/9 is way above what is expected from Stults and will most likely fall, but that sub three ERA last season and a ground ball rate around 60% should not make that too much of a concern. Stults sgould get two starts this week, against division foes Los Angeles and San Francisco, but away from Petco. Luckily neither one of these parks is all that hitter friendly, so Stults could do alright. My one concern is that the Dodgers have been quiet on the run scoring front thus far and with the collection of hitters they have, they are due for a breakout. Plus, Stults already gave up four earned runs in five innings this season against the Dodgers. That aside, I am giving the nod to stream Stults this week, but not as wholeheartedly for that Dodgers game.

Garrett Richards, Angels- Young Mister Richards has looked fantastic out of the gate. A 2.08 ERA, .92 WHIP and 10.38 K/9 are ace numbers for sure. A 1.81 xFIP and 58.3% GB rate point to the digits he’s posting thus far being, well, the real deal. Richards has been lights out and it looks like, for now at least, he can keep it up. Richards starts this week against the Tigers and Justin Verlander. A tough matchup for sure, but I like his chances this week. I say stream away on Richards. In fact, you may just want to keep him on your roster for awhile.

So there you have it, your first Field of Streams of 2013. Now, as I said it is tough this early in the season to get a great read on what numbers to believe, but you can start to formulate some opinions. Tune in next week when, hopefully, I have more viable than non-viable streaming options. Well keep, keep on truckin’, I guess.

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/04/15/field-of-streams-fantasy-pitching-options/feed/2Bold-ish Predictions For 2013http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/04/04/bold-ish-predictions-for-2013/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/04/04/bold-ish-predictions-for-2013/#commentsThu, 04 Apr 2013 15:28:22 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6454I know you have been waiting months, days even, for this exciting moment. Well, it is a bit late, I know, but better late than never, right? Just agree. In any event, it is here! Your wait is over! My much anticipated bold-ish (The “ish” part will be important. Just wait, you’ll see.) predictions for the 2013 Major League Baseball season.

Mark Trumbo will sock over forty homeruns.During his mid-season tear it sure seemed like Mr. Trumbo would easily clear forty dingers, but alas, he did not. Trumbo had a huge drop off (a drop off that may or not have cost me a fantasy baseball championship and that I may or may not still be bitter about) where he hit a measly five homeruns from August to the end of the season. Five? FIVE?! Well, there were lingering injury issues and those should be out of the way, so look for more long balls from Trumbo this season. Yeah, the forty homerun number is certainly attainable for Trumbo, so not super bold, but bold-ish.

Felix Doubront will win 17 games, post a sub 3.50 ERA and strikeout 200 batters. Last year Felix went 11-10, with a 4.86 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and 167 strikeouts, so this prediction has its bit of boldishness, does it not? Fact is, Doubront had a 9.34 K/9 and an xFIP of 3.81. I feel like working with Pedro Martinez, John Farrell and Juan Nieves will help Doubront harness his talent and overall goodness.

Hee Sop Choi and or Hideki Irabu return to Major League Baseball.Huh? Choi is tearing it up in the South Korean pro baseball league right now! Well, he probably is. Why wouldn’t he be? What with that sweet swing and all? You know he’s just itching to get back to America, probably. Now, Hideki Irabu? You just know he is ready for a comeback! And quite frankly, what team would not want a 42-year old former major league pitcher who posted a career ERA over five? Hmmm? Hmmmm?! Surely some team will want it for a gimmick or something. If ony there were a team everyone thought was so bad that they would look for any sort of something to draw a crowd. If only. Eh, onto another prediction.

The Houston Astros will have an All-Star representative….. not named Jose Altuve. Okay, this is bold for sure, right. Now, do I have a prediction of who this All-Star will be? Well, not per se. I mean go ahead and name as many Houston Astros as you can? How many did you get? Ten? Of those, how many do you think could be an All-Star? Hmmm? Well, my shortlist of possible Astros All-Stars includes Lucas Harrell, Justin Maxwell and Carlos Pena. Should any of them, with the numbers they have produced in their career, be considered potential All-Stars? Eh. But who knows, stranger things have certainly happened, right? Now, while I listed several potential players that could earn that coveted All-Star spot for the Houston Astros, my best bet is my boy Bud Norris, because…

Bud Norris will finish top ten in the National League Cy Young voting in 2013. Yeah, you don’t need the “ish” on this bold statement. There is really no way this should happen, but if Bud Norris pitches even half as good on the road as he does at the Juice Box? Well, look out world! Last year at home, Bud Norris posted a 1.71 ERA and a .96 WHIP over 73.2 innings. Likelihood of this one coming true? Not great, sure.

Jered Weaver will win less than 15 games and have an ERA over 3.50. Now, I am not saying I am not a fan of Weaver (I’m not). Weaver is good, certainly. The numbers do not lie. Last season Weaver won 20 games and posted a sub-three ERA, and only once in the last four seasons has he won less than fifteen games or posted an ERA over 3.50. So why do I think that he will not picth as well this season? An xFIP of 4.18 and a sub-seven K/9 that Weaver posted last season. Now, Weaver has a good defense behind him, which has helped him overcome that ugly xFIP, but I feel the regression is a comin’ and this is the year for it to a come!

The Red Sox will make the playoffs. Everyone is down on the Sox this year after what can only be described as an abysmal 2012 for the Beantowners, but not sure they’ll be that bad though. I mean, sure, they could not hold onto Lyle Overbay, but that aside, I still think they can do some things in 2013. The outfield should be pretty good defensively with the addition of the Flyin’ Hawaiian Shane Victorino and I think Mike Napoli probably has another 30 dingers in him this season. Not to mention a full season of Will Middlebrooks and some guys roatating through the shortstop position! Pitching, I think, is the big question, but I think that starting rotation will be much better than people think, so do not sleep on the BoSox!

Josh Hamilton plays less than 100 games. I know, I know, barely bold-ish on this one, but come on, they can’t all be gold, can they? Something tells me sometime in June or July Hamilton’s season will come to an end, leaving the Angels with only 3-4 big hitters in their lineup. Seems like Hamilton is always injured and I feel like his body is wearing down on a high rate from season to season and his days of full, MVP, seasons are behind him.

Kendrys Morales will hit 30 or more home runs. Remember when Morales was a stud? A superstar in waiting? And then, remember when he hurt himself celebrating? It happens. I, for instance, have pulled a muscle getting out of bed. Freak injuries happen. Anyways, Morales quietly hit 22 bombs for the Angels in 2012 in 484 at bats, so 30 is definitely attainable. What makes this bold-ish, is that he now will be playing home games in Safeco and possibly platooning with guys in the Mariner lineup. Now, they have messed with the dimensions in Seattle, but there is still the possibility this will be a picther’s park. But I am still thinking this year will be a big year for Mr. Morales, so ,ark my words!

So there you go!My boldish predictions for the 2013 season. When these come true, remember, you heard it here first, folks. Enjoy the season!

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/04/04/bold-ish-predictions-for-2013/feed/0Edison Volquez: Stream Dream?http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/03/22/edison-volquez-stream-dream/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/03/22/edison-volquez-stream-dream/#commentsFri, 22 Mar 2013 12:00:23 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6381Alright, time to take a look at another starting pitcher who may be available after your fantasy baseball draft, thus making him a viable streaming option during the season. As somewhat promised I will venture outside of the American League East this time around, as I take a look at Edison Volquez’s streaming viability.

Volquez is currently consistently ranked in the high 90s amongst starting pitchers, and this is fairly accurate location for him in my eyes. Last season, Volquez was 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, so he was not exactly a world beater or anything. Also it is not as if he was tremendously unlucky and these fantasy statistics are that misleading. Volquez had a 4.20 xFIP and he walked over five batters per nine innings which does not exactly help his cause and shows us that his ERA is pretty much right where you should expect it to be. Sadly, those walks are huge detractor when thinking about picking up Volquez. With a career walks per nine innings of right around five, last season was also not anomaly or fluke and those walks will continue. However, if you are streaming Edison, then you may be able to work with the free passes and a generally high WHIP.

Now, much like skinning a cat, there is more than one way to go about streaming. Some people will stream until their little hearts are content, if their league settings and rules will allow. For those who stream with reckless abandon, Volquez will be all over their radars because for some reason I feel like Volquez has been considered a “name” starting pitcher for years. Although Volquez has only really had one very good season in the majors, he has been continuously taken on draft day. The ERA is tolerable, but that WHIP should be a big red flag causing some hesitance and caution when thinking about throwing Volquez out there at any point in your scoring week. Now, for those who do stream this way they are basically looking to take wins and strikeouts and hope for the best in the other categories. So if this is your method of choice Volquez should be a solid option. Well, sort of.

I mean, wins in general can be a crapshoot and any pitcher with the potential to win 12-15 games is draftable and any pitcher with double digit win potential that is not drafted is certainly a viable streaming option. I believe Volquez may be able to get to 12 wins and anything more is just icing on the cake. When streaming for wins you will need to pick a favorable match up for not only the pitcher but his team in general. So while wins, are quite possibly attainable with Volquez, strikeouts are definitely attainable with Volquez. Edison had a K/9 of 8.57 last year and that number for his career is 8.65. So if you are looking to stream to capture strikeouts and you are not too concerned with your other categories Volquez is your man. However, if you are in a tight race in the other categories you may need a little more help in deciding whether or not Volquez is a good pickup.

So, from the information we now have about Volquez, it seems he is a better streaming option for the end of the week. At that point you will have a better idea of where you stand in your match up and can decide if you should roll the dice with Volquez. Your other option, if you are looking to Volquez for an early week game, is to look for his most favorable matchups. Now if Volquez is facing a struggling, weak, or, especially in his case, free-swinging offense this would be an ideal time to take a chance and throw him out there. But another thing you could look at, is his splits.

Volquez plays his home games in what is widely known to be a pitcher’s park and while most pitchers will throw better at home, Volquez is extremely better at home. In 2012 Volquez had an ERA of 2.95, a 1.29 WHIP, and an 8.85 K/9. See? Extremely good. It may also be interesting to point out that Volquez’s walk rate was about the same at home as it was on the road, so clearly he was not giving up a lot of hits at Petco in 2012. On the road he posted an ERA over five, a WHIP of 1.65, with an 8.23 K/9. As you should have read above, for the most part the strikeouts should consistently be there for Volquez. Now his home xFIP was still 3.88, but this is still better than the 4.56 xFIP he posted on the road. Of course, fantasy leagues don’t care about a pitcher’s xFIP and with a FIP of 3.20 at home I would say you can expect some more home cookin’ from Volquez in 2013, leading to a home ERA in the low threes.

So I would say for the most part Volquez will be a very viable streaming option whenever he takes the bump at Petco and possibly on several other occasions. When looking through last season’s splits, I also noticed Volquez managed a 3.52 ERA in the first half, but do not get too hyped about this as his FIP in the first and second half were pretty much the same, so the second half was more or less just a regression, bringing his numbers to where we can expect them to be. Currently Volquez is owned in 5.4% of ESPN leagues and 16% in Yahoo! Leagues, so there’s a great chance he will not be drafted in your league(s), but is worth keeping an eye on for streaming. With that I am sure Edison will be making several appearances in Field of Streams this season. Alright well, keep, keep on truckin’ folks.

]]>http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/03/22/edison-volquez-stream-dream/feed/0The Trumbo Drophttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/03/21/the-trumbo-drop/
http://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/2013/03/21/the-trumbo-drop/#commentsThu, 21 Mar 2013 14:32:48 +0000Will Emersonhttp://www.fullspectrumbaseball.com/?p=6390Ah, the story of Mark Trumbo and the wild ride that was his 2012 season. For those who did manage to grab Trumbo, their apparent genius was rewarded handsomely… at first. Trumbo started heating up in May and carried that through July, looking like the fantasy steal of 2012. From May through July, Trumbo socked 24, count ‘em, 24 home runs! Trumbo added 61 RBIs and also hit .300 over that span, for those of you who are into that sort of thing and his OPS’s for those months? 1.077, .899, and .864. Trumbo was well on his way to a tremendous season, when he didn’t see that wall and ran right into it.

In August, Trumbo hit a meager three dingers, hitting .304, with an OPS of .550. Mr. Trumbo did not fare much better in September and October when he socked two home runs with a .214 average and an OPS of .554. Quite a turnaround for the big fella, wouldn’t ya say? Well, of course the question going into 2013 is, which, if either, is the true Mark Trumbo? The guy who was just mashing for three months or the one who could barely hit himself out of a wet paper bag for the last two months? Obviously the two are pretty much on opposite ends of the spectrum here, so just what exactly are we to expect from Trumbo in 2013?

Well, let us take a look at Trumbo’s final numbers, first. Trumbo finished with 32 home runs and 95 RBIs and an OPS of .808. Of course 24 of those 32 home runs were in that three-month span of May through June. Which means Trumbo hit eight home runs in the other three months. Now we all know the power is there for Trumbo, but will the power be consistent or will Trumbo owners have to take the famine with the feast? The biggest difference in August through the end of the season was Trumbo’s home run to fly ball rate. About a quarter of Trumbo’s flyballs were leaving the yard in the first four months, but this rate dropped to 14.3% in August and then right on down to 7.4% in September. Obviously a big factor in the long ball drop off. Of course, it was not just the long balls that dropped off, it was Mark Trumbo’s entire offensive output that fell off a cliff. So what exactly happened?

Well, first off, it seems that either pitchers were starting to figure Trumbo out or he was just not being as patient. Perhaps even a combination of both. Look at Trumbo’s strikeout percentage by month ion 2012:

March/ April – 27.5%

May- 17.8%

June- 23.2%

July- 19.8%

August- 36.4%

September/ October- 33.7%

The K-rate took a huge jump in the last two months of the season, but Trumbo was also not getting on base as much down the stretch. In September Trumbo had a walk rate of 2.3%, helping him to a .233 OBP for the month. I shouldn’t have to tell you dem’s some outrageously bad numbers in both categories. Unfortunately I do not have info on Trumbo’s plate discipline numbers by month, but I think it is safe to say that he was probably pressing as he headed into September. Or was it something else? Trumbo experienced back spasms in July and it is possible that this lingered with him into the final two months and really sapped his power. If the back spasm issue was the primary cause this is good news for Trumbo going into 2013. So, if this is the case, should you expect more of May through July Trumbo? Well, I wouldn’t go quite go that far.

Look, those middle month were torrid and I don’t think there are many people out there who think the .300 average over that span is sustainable, so we’re gonna stay focused on the power. The home run/ power pace for that month was a bit more than expected and I am not quite sure those numbers are sustainable for Trumbo over a full season. If Trumbo had the same HR/AB rate in his lesser three months as he did in his binge months he would have had about 44 home runs for the season. I would say it is safe to project another 30 or so homers from Trumbo in 2013, at the very least, with the potential to sock 40. I am going to predict a number in the middle of those and say that Trumbo will out up 35 home runs in 2013 with 65-70 runs and 95-100 RBIs. Am I predicting a bit high? Well in the home run department, maybe a tad, but I don’t think 35 dongs is completely out of the question for Trumbo. With batting average you may see some hot weeks strung together, but I would not expect anything over .270. You can still expect an OPS over .800 for Trumbo, but this will be mostly driven by his slugging percentage as he has a very low walk rate. So in 5 x 5 leagues the average is a minor detractor, but nevertheless the 2012 late season slump could make Trumbo a mild sleeper in many drafts.

Rotochamp has Trumbo ranked 123 overall, which would mean he would be going around the 12-13th round in 12 team leagues. With an outside shot at 40 homers and 100 RBIs, that would be a nice pickup that late, sure. The problem is Trumbo’s average draft position in Yahoo! leagues is 99.8 and in ESPN leagues it is 84.8, so no one is really buying a ranking of around 123. Realistically, I would say go ahead and grab Trumbo around the 85th pick or so and bet on him not having a repeat of 2012′s dismal finish. It’s okay, you can thank me when you are polishing your fantasy league trophy come October.