Tuesday, August 21, 2012

We
here at NotMakingThisUp began wondering what would happen on tonight’s
Hewlett-Packard earnings call if short-selling terrorists had managed to inject
truth serum in the plastic water bottles that every hip Silicon Valley exec
carries with them—environmental impact be damned—when they make a presentation
or just want to look cool sipping from while they contemplate a question at one
of those Silicon Valley confabs before beginning their answer with, “So…” and
repeating the question slowly while they figure out how to answer it.

Here goes…

CFO
Cathie Lesjack: “The following discussion is subject to all sorts of risk
factors, and since most of your clients have already lost a lot of money in HP
stock by listening to me in the past talk about how great we were doing and
taking it at face value, I figure you should already know enough not to pay
much attention to what we’re going to say.”

CEO
Meg Whitman: “Thanks Cathie.We’re
going to dispense with reading the press release and the boo-ya stuff, since
most of you know how to read—at least you can read everything but a balance
sheet.(Giggles)Operator?”

Operator:
“Thank you.” (Reads instructions)“Our
first question is from the line of Glen Obvious.Mr. Obvious?

Glen
Obvious: (Confused) “Hey, thanks.That was quick.Umm…”

Whitman:“Operator, Glen, is trying to figure out what
to congratulate us for, because he always starts out saying ‘congratulations’
on something so his poor clients who own our stock feel better no matter how
bad the actual news is.Why don’t you
move on to the next question while Glen gets his brain going.”

Operator:
“Yes ma’am.Next is Janet Literal.”

Janet
Literal: “Thank you for taking my question—”

Whitman:“Why wouldn’t we?This is a conference call.”

Literal:“Well, I always say that…so you’ll think well
of me.”Whitman:“Well cut it out.We’re all grown-ups here.You don’t have to thank us for foisting dopey acquisitions, massive write-offs, a negative tangible book value, a
highly leveraged balance sheet and non-GAAP earnings on America’s small
investors.Just get on with it.”

Literal:“Okay—well, that’s my question: you don’t
have any non-GAAP numbers in the
press release.”Whitman:“Yeah, we figured since those aren’t actually
based on ‘Generally Accepted Accounted Principles,’ we should probably start
going with just plain old GAAP.It’s a
lot closer to the truth that way.”

Literal:“But these GAAP numbers are terrible.You didn’t make any money.”

Whitman:
“Bingo.”

Literal:“So how come your non-GAAP guidance was so
much better than this?”

Whitman:“D’oh!”

Literal:“I’ll get back in the queue.”

Whitman:
“We won’t hold our breath, honey.Next!”

Operator:“Your next question is from Fred
Forehead.Mr. Forehead, your line is
open.”

Fred
Forehead:“Thank you for—oh, sorry, never
mind that.Meg, how should we think
about the revenue decline?”

Whitman:“You
want me to tell you how to think about something?!Didn’t God give you a brain?”

Lesjack:
“Good gravy, Meg mentioned ‘God’!Operator, can we excise that from the replay?”

Whitman:“Is that really a problem?”

Lesjack:“It is if the California Political Police are
listening.”

Operator:“But she didn’t specify a Judeo-Christian ‘God,’ ma’am.”

Lesjack:
“You’re right.Thank you operator.”

Operator:“No problem.I just wish I got your pay grade.”

Lesjack:“Beg your pardon, operator?”

Operator:“Well, for starters, I never financed a $10 billion acquisition that went bad in nine
months.”

Lesjack:“Hey, I thought Autonomy was going to be a
great deal for us!”

Operator:“At 11-times revenue and 24-times
EBITDA?Puh-leeze.”

Lesjack:
“And I’ll ask you to excise that from the replay, too.”

Operator:“Don’t hold your breath, honey.”

Lesjack:“In any event, our corporate counsel has just
handed me a note reminding everyone on this call that our unintentional mention
of ‘God’ is inclusive of any ‘God,’
whether that be a Buddhist ‘God’ or a Muslim ‘God’ or an atheist ‘God’—

Whitman:“What is wrong
with you?Get on with the Q&A.”

Lesjack:“Sorry.Operator, is Fred Forehead still on the line?”

Forehead:“Yeah, still here.So how should we think about—”

Whitman:“Careful…”

Forehead:“Sorry.I just don’t know how to ask a question without asking you how I should
think about something.”

Whitman:“Next!”

Operator:“Beth Band-Aid, your line is open.”

Beth
Band-Aid:“Thank you so much.This ‘negative tangible book value’ you
mentioned earlier…what exactly does that mean?”

Whitman:“Are you serious?”

Operator:“Yes she is, ma’am.I’ve heard this girl ask questions on four
hundred freaking conference calls, and she wouldn’t know GAAP accounting from a
tomato.”

Whitman:“Well, for starters, it’s negative $6 per
share—”

Band-Aid:“Did you say ‘Negative’?”

Operator:“Yes she did, Beth.It’s negative.”

Band-Aid:“Well, what, exactly does that mean?”

Operator:“It means that in all of recorded time the
folks at Hewlett-Packard have managed to lose more money on write-offs of bad acquisitions, one-time charges that happen more than once, and share buybacks at high prices to offset options issued at low prices, than they ever made selling computers and printers, that’s
what it means.”

Band-Aid:“Cathie, is that true?”Lesjack:
“Uh…yes…but…”

Operator:“It also means I should have her job.”

Band-Aid:“Meg, would you agree with that?”Whitman:“Well, now that you mention it, that’s a damn good way to think about it…”

Jeff Matthews

Author “Secrets in Plain
Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”

The content contained in
this blog represents only the opinions of Mr. Matthews.Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and
clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in
securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’
recommendations.This commentary in no
way constitutes investment advice, and should never be relied on in making an
investment decision, ever.Also, this
blog is not a solicitation of business by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be
ignored.And if you think Mr. Matthews
is kidding about that, he is not.The
content herein is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the
author.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

We present below excerpts from analyst
presentations by two retailers.

The first is an old, well-known department
store chain, and the presentation was made last September, when its long-time
CEO spent an hour or so ruminating about the transformation of his company.

The second is more recent—like, this past Friday.

And it’s by JC Penney, or “JCP” as its new-age
executives insist on calling it—a misguided nod to the company’s stock ticker,
which seems to be the one thing those executives understand about the company
and its now-muddied 110-year old relationship with the American consumer…a
relationship that won’t be getting any better any time soon so long as its
executives insist on referring to a stock ticker that 98% of Penney’s customers
wouldn’t recognize if you tattooed it on their foreheads.

After all, did Steve Jobs walk around talk
about the great things “AAPL” was creating?Does Coke run ads saying, “Enjoy a KO Today”?Do Wal-Mart greeters say, “Welcome to WMT” to
the overburdened mothers and their screaming toddlers as they begin the hair-pulling
search for the day’s bargains?

No they do not.But Penney executives would.

Worse still, the company runs newspaper ads
with no identification except “JCP” on the page.And
TV ads with only a “JCP” logo on the screen.It’s no wonder the company’s sales collapsed 21% last quarter.

But if you’re expecting ex-Apple retail genius
Ron Johnson to bend a little on the “JCP” thing, well that’s not going to
happen, if last Friday’s earnings call was any indication—but we’re getting
ahead of ourselves.

The point here is to contrast Penney’s Friday
morning transcript detailing its current “transformation” with last year’s
presentation from another, larger department store—we’ll call it “XYZ” for
now—describing its own “transformation.”

If you
can guess what company “XYZ” is, well, you just might be cynical enough to work
on Wall Street.

Who We Are

XYZ: I
think, overall, we feel good about our position in the marketplace…I would say
that our transformation over the last five to seven years—Icame [here] at a time when
the turnaround had been complete and we identified the fact that we needed to
be an attraction that people came to us for merchandise, but they also had to
have an experience that was memorable.

—9/7/11.

JCP: We are going to become an entirely new
class of department store that doesn't exist today.We are going to create a new category that we
call the specialty department store and we think it is going to be profound and
let me tell you about it…

—8/10/12

Our Customer ExperienceXYZ: So we focused very much on engaging
our associates and having them be thebest ambassadors. I'm pleased to say that our customer
service scores have been outstanding and lead recent American Express poll
three years in a row, lead for department stores. I think that is a real testimonial
to the effectiveness of our sales associates.

—9/7/11.

JCP: But
where we are most excited is how we are going to use RFID to transform the
customer experience… So next spring we will be rolling out personal check out.
So in addition to being able to check out from any employee anywhere, any time,
you will be able to check out by yourself in our stores. And we think customers
are going to like it and it is going to help our conversion and the customer
experience.

—8/10/12

Our Technology

XYZ: We
maintain a $650 million capital expenditure commitment this year primarily on
digital infrastructure as well as remodels, two new stores, and fixture
rollouts for our attractions and new initiatives…

—9/7/11.

JCP: From a technology perspective…we have overspent on technology as a
company. Part of that is because we have an extraordinarily complex and an
abundant number of applications to run the business.

Mike shared
last January we have 492 unique applications, 88% of them are customized,
meaning we have done all this hard work internally to make them unique to us
and the challenge of that is 95% of the money we spend every year, $400 million
was spent to maintain and support outdated applications, which meant we only
got to spend about 5% on strategic go forward initiatives.

If you
think about that, that is $20 million a year out of $400 million going to
something new to improve the customer experience or ability to manage the
business and the balance going to maintain outdated legacy systems. That is a
problem.

—8/10/12

Our Promotional Policy

XYZ: Well, our pricing and promotion is set in
a year in advance, so we don't react on a week-to-week basis, but I will say that we
are well priced; as I said, we're the lowest priced anchor in the mall and we
compete head-to-head in the off-mall.

—9/7/11.

JCP: In
2011 our Company ran 590 unique promotions and the average item had 20 to 30
prices -- different prices during the year. And so I figured going to three
types of prices would be a lot simpler. A great everyday price, some items at a
month-long better value and then clearance, which we called best price.

—8/10/12

Our Home Business

XYZ: We've done very well in luggage, in
housewares, in the soft home side. We have a very well developed window
covering business. I think one-third of all windows in the United States have [our]
window coverings. That's a tremendous advantage when people are building homes
and remodeling.

—9/7/11.

JCP: And on
the home thing, just so you know, there is going to be a material change in
home.

—8/10/12

Our Online Business

XYZ: I've said many times we'd been better off
if we started from scratch the dot-com than trying to change the locomotive's
engine while we're running down the track. So I believe we've done a good job
of understanding the issue, but it has not been easy, and has not been
accretive to our monthly comps. Having said that, we've invested heavily
because we believe it is a strength and that we have a history of being able to
ship items to a customer's home effectively and the customer looks to us for
that.

—9/7/11.

JCP: Yes,
we have not been performing well online. It is one of our big opportunities.
Steve Seabolt is here in the front row. Steve took over the online store in
May, we have uncovered a lot of issues -- basic issues. We don't set up our
items on time. We had items in our shops that weren't set up online. Our
navigation is kind of kludgy at times.

—8/10/12

Our Cost Structure

XYZ: Our expense program, overall, is really
designed to get us to as competitive as possible of a cost structure. Our
margins have been - are historically high, so we just need to make sure that
our cost structure is competitive to get back to double-digit operating profit.

—9/7/11.

JCP: Expenses
-- we have talked a lot about this at $900 million. So in 2011 we had $5.1
billion of expense. Our anticipation is that number will be down by over $900
million in 2013. And where is that coming from? About $400 million of it is
coming from our stores. It's about $350 million coming out of our home office
and about $150 million coming out of our marketing.

—8/10/12

Our Workforce
Scheduling System

XYZ: Our workforce utilization, our jTime
- what we call jTime, which is matching schedules to when the customer is in
the store, that's, again, we've taken out cost. But at the same time, our
customer service scores have gone up because we have better staffing when the
customers actually are in the store and save the expense when obviously there
is less traffic.

—9/7/11.

JCP: So I
think in many ways our employees are so far ahead of us and they are so tired
of having to go find a piece of paper to figure out when they should work…

—8/10/12

Our Store
Merchandising System

XYZ: We have a very sophisticated process that
allows us to merchandise every store differently even if they're in the same
market or in the next community.

—9/7/11.

JCP: So we
will have as many distinct shopping choices in our 130,000 square feet as you
will find in a 1 million square-foot mall, except you won't have to go from
check out every time you leave a store, this will be a whole unique
environment…

—8/10/12

Those readers with good memories, or long
experience with JC Penney, or long experience with this virtual column, are
probably already ahead of the game and know that both XYZ and JCP are one and
the same: JC Penney.

Or “JCP.”Take your pick.Either way, will
the new JC Penney “transformation” work any better than the previous one?

If it does, Ron Johnson really is a
genius.If it doesn’t, well, at least he
tried a whole lot harder than the last crew.

Jeff Matthews

Author “Secrets in Plain
Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”

The content contained in
this blog represents only the opinions of Mr. Matthews.Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and
clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in
securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’
recommendations.This commentary in no
way constitutes investment advice, and should never be relied on in making an
investment decision, ever.Also, this
blog is not a solicitation of business by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be
ignored.And if you think Mr. Matthews
is kidding about that, he is not.The
content herein is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the
author.