Labour migration Ukraine: what to expect in the near future? (Part 2)

Labour migration Ukraine: what to expect in the near future? (Part 2)

(Continued)
It should be noted however, that conclusion on the reduction of labor migration to Russia and accelerating the reorientation of labor migration to the West deals with most of Ukraine's population, but are not residents of the occupied territories, where the situation is radically different. For the last exit to work in Russia is the only possible. It is for them, obviously rekrutuvatymetsya and the bulk of the flow resettlement in neighboring countries. The war and aggression on the one hand, inhibits labor migration to Russia, but on the other - it promotes the continuation of the eastern regions of Ukraine, whose population prevalence in this direction of movement in the near future will be even more pronounced than before.
As of March 31, 2015, according to the Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation since 1 April 2014 and moved to Russia continued to remain in its territory of 2.5 million. Ukraine's citizens. The reasons are different entry, including family circumstances, education, employment. However, many citizens Ukraine had to cross the Russian border, fleeing the war. About 6 thousand. Ukrainian applied for refugee status, 325 ths. - For temporary shelter. It should, however, be noted that, according to the FMS, the majority of applications for asylum lodged in the central federal district, not in the border regions to Ukraine. This is obviously due to the fact that some Ukrainian who worked in Russia, using the appropriate opportunity to legalize their situation.
Even in the case of forced migration and employment was the reason for not starting to live, to work. Moreover, according to the Russian legislation to issue special permits for foreigners seeking asylum are required. Thus, the army of foreign workers in Russia greatly enriched by forced migrants from Ukraine.
In the case of normalization of the situation in the east of Ukraine are back home, but some - will remain for a long and permanent residence in Russia. It will be the greater, the longer and be violent conflict it caused significant damage. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, a statement regarding participation in a government program promoting the voluntary resettlement of compatriots in the last year approached 93.2 thousand. Citizens of Ukraine (including family members) a statement on the acquisition of citizenship of Russia - 76 thousand. If we compare these figures with those 2013 (within the program to promote resettlement of compatriots in 2013 came to 34.7 thousand. people), it turns out that it is due to war in the Ukraine made significant progress in attracting immigrants, what is the main, according to the highest approved level policy documents, the task of the Russian migration policy.
Despite the fighting associated with an increase in travel to Russia from the east, gradual change vector migration, as well as the intensification of labor migration abroad, can be considered a trend of migration process with Ukraine, which is already evident and will be more pronounced in the near future.
As part of the migration is also likely there will some changes. As before, it will be involved primarily residents of the western border, people with an average level of education, media working professionals, people from villages and small towns, where finding a job is particularly difficult. At the same time, it is logical to assume that the emigration intentions may actively occur among people war and aggression has forced to leave the place of previous residence, that internally displaced persons. From this cohort forced a mobile population (at the beginning of April 2015 in Ukraine was officially registered 1.2 million. IDPs) rekrutuvatymutsya additional migrant workers abroad. This is even more likely in areas of resettlement, apart unsettled life, the threat of poverty, IDPs face serious difficulties with employment. On the one hand, on their arrival pressure on local labor markets and the situation in which so intense, exacerbated, and the second - as a result of a specific professional qualification of immigrants from Miner's industrial Donbass-find relevant work in other regions of Ukraine is problematic. The situation of IDPs, in addition to increasing the number of migrant workers will lead to some changes in their distribution by region of origin. In traditional predominance of residents of Western Ukraine suggests increasing participation in migrant journeys immigrants from eastern and southern Ukraine.
Given the sharp drop in welfare, which affected not only the less affluent classes, but also the middle class, small businesses, skilled workers, it is possible to increase immigration experts. Moreover, the country of destination have developed and implemented a clear policy to attract skilled immigrants.
Relevant legislation exists at national level. For example, in Poland, university professors, scientists, teachers of foreign languages ??do not need to issue a work permit. Scoring system admission of immigrants based on their education, skills, knowledge of languages ??functioning in the UK, of Denmark, lists scarce professions carriers which can count on simplified conditions for admission - in France and other countries.
Common approaches to encourage immigration specialists developed and at EU level. This is the directive on the so-called "blue card", ie the right to a residence permit professionals from third countries that have appropriate education, experience and demand for employment in the EU, which provides wages that half times the average level in the country. The legislation of a number of members of certain professions these requirements reduced. For example, in Germany, scientists, engineers, IT specialists, doctors can get a "blue card" in the case of offers lower wages. According to Eurostat, only in 2012 (the last year for which data are available), that in the first year of implementation of European legislation on "blue card", they received about 150 Ukrainian, mainly in Germany (109).
The impact of this policy on the composition of labor migration from Ukraine experienced before. Yes, the State Statistics conducted a 2012 survey population although research indicates that educational and professional characteristics inferior workers employed in Ukraine, but in comparison with the similar survey data in 2008 the share of migrant workers, who were engaged in overseas skilled labor has increased: in 2008 among migrant workers were found only 6% of those who worked abroad as professionals, experts, technical officials, but in 2012 this category of workers was already 10.8%. Effectiveness of involvement of foreign countries specialists from Ukraine will be even higher on the back of reduced funding for science and educational sphere in Ukraine, worsening conditions for creative work.
One of the most effective channels to replenish labor and intellectual resources of the appointment by educated and talented immigrants is an educational migration. With a certain time lag it can also be seen as a career, as most foreign countries in recent years have introduced attractive legal framework for market entry of foreigners-graduates, providing them with job opportunities according to their specialty in the host country without any additional permits. Former international students who have completed training, make up one third of recipients "blue cards".
In the context of the future prospects of labor migration from Ukraine is worth mentioning that the number of citizens who are educated abroad, is growing rapidly. Number of Ukrainian students differs depending on the country of study. Although traditionally most Ukrainian studied in Russia, but the number of Ukrainian students is decreasing. However, since the beginning of the century the number of Ukrainian students in Poland increased 6 times in Germany - to 22.5 times in Italy - 45 times, in Spain, where at the beginning of the century there was virtually no - in 152 times. In other words, it grew rapidly especially in countries where due to migration formed numerous Ukrainian diaspora have developed powerful migration networks. These factors will operate in the future. After learning overseas workers involved children, these are already the second generation of migrants. They appear within the general tendency of educational migration, which undoubtedly will continue to grow, despite the decline in income Ukrainian, due to broad learning opportunities provided by destination countries interested in coming young talents.
Anticipating further development of migration can not ignore the prospects of transforming academic labor migration, and that the greater part of what would be worse employment conditions and career development of young people in Ukraine. This means that, in addition to growth in the share structure of migrant professionals also suggests increasing the proportion of them young people.
The rapid growth of Ukrainian students primarily in countries where significant migrant flow is directed, can also testify about forming another noteworthy trend that will determine the further development of labor migration from Ukraine. This is a family reunion of migrant workers abroad. This trend is already apparent under the influence of the global financial crisis, when the adult children of migrant workers, whose tuition was not the main motive for traveling parents to work abroad, were in Ukraine without a decent job prospects. This prompted some of them to join their parents in foreign countries. The present even more severe economic crisis, complicated circumstances military action, will enhance the result by targeting migrant workers to family reunion outside Ukraine. Moreover, over the years of working abroad, many of them were able to resolve the legal status, to establish social ties and provide material conditions, which enable invite family and are necessary for the host country permission.
In this regard, can provide another important change in the behavior of Ukrainian migration, which can dramatically affect the nature of migration and its impact on development. Until now, the dominant model migratory behavior was temporary seasonal migration, which, however, has all the signs of circularity, ie repeated recurrence. State Statistics Survey in 2012 showed that the average length of absence of the migrant in the country amounted to five months, and the average frequency of field missions to work - three trips during 2.5 years of follow-up. Long migrants who were (or planned to be) abroad more than 12 months accounted for only 14.1% of all identified in the survey of migrant workers. Short trips circular practiced primarily in neighboring countries - Poland, Russia, Belarus, Hungary, the Czech Republic. Duration precedence in other countries was naturally higher.
However, the future can be predicted gradual transformation of short circular for longer trips, as well as emigration for permanent residence. This will contribute to the difficult economic and political circumstances in the country, change of migrant workers for professionals as well as migrant workers gained experience of foreign travel, their adaptation in the countries of employment. A sign of this transformation is a marked increase in the number of citizens of Ukraine applying for residence permits (temporary and permanent) in foreign countries. For example, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Poland in 2014 the number of Ukrainian requests for residence permits doubled, for a temporary stay - half.
As an indirect confirmation of this trend can be seen dynamics transfers of migrants to their families in their homeland. They are quite significant, steadily and in 2013. exceeded, according to the National Bank of Ukraine 8.5 billion. US dollars. However, in 2014 recorded decline in remittances by 24% (Figure 1). In part, this speaker was an attempt to establish the National Bank currency payment transfers in UAH and at below market rates. Despite the fact that this procedure lasted less than a month, it undermined the already low credibility of migrants to financial institutions of the state, forcing many of them to refrain from transfers or use informal channels of money transfer.
However, the reduction in remittances may have another cause. Since the number of migrants has not decreased, on the contrary, probably increased, it confirms extension of stay of migrants abroad, and even refusal to return home, indicating the family reunion in foreign countries. According to the survey of migrants in the host countries of previous years, more savings are made, bought real estate, not in Ukraine and abroad, indicating a gradual move back their vital interests.
Modern Transformation of migration in the light of a deep economic crisis and war can have another extremely negative component. If the assumptions regarding the growth The volume migration fair, and considering policies of destination countries that strictly control and limit the entry of foreigners, especially unskilled workers, it is possible increase the share of Ukrainian citizens work overseas without proper permits is illegal. Today the proportion of workers without a regulated status is quite large, although diminished, compared the situation of 2008 and 2012. .: 25.6% and 20.4% respectively (according to surveys of the population of Ukraine on migration made by the State Statistics).
The highest in 2012 it was in Poland, Italy and Russia. For Ukrainian migrant workers is typical legal entry and stay abroad, but illegal employment. This is evidenced also by the fact that during the examination in 2012 of migrants admitted that working in foreign countries with only a short-term visa for employment rights do not give. Under these conditions, the introduction of visa-free travel to the EU can contribute to the spread of employment Ukrainian for "gray" labor market within the allowed three months for each stay. Indirectly, the possibility of growth of illegal employment abroad and the fact also shows a sharp increase in Ukrainian who served in foreign countries asylum. In particular, only in Poland during 2014 were filed 23 thousand. Such requests. Most of them do not come from fugitives from the Ukraine and from persons who are living abroad and thus trying to use the situation for the acquisition of proper legal status.
Thus, the assessment of the possible development of labor migration from Ukraine in the short term is reduced to this: in a deep economic crisis intensity of traveling abroad for employment may increase; reorientation of migration flow from east to west direction will accelerate; composition of migrant workers may change as a result of an increase in their share of professionals and young people; Today the dominant model of circular migration can gradually transformed into a long, continuous stay abroad; it is possible growth segment of illegal labor migration from Ukraine.