NFL Value Plays: Week 17

Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 17.

Values are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.

Quarterback

E.J. Manuel ($5,000) – As bad as Manuel was in his last stint as the Bills’ starter, the Jets are still ranked 31st against the pass and elite against the run. Manuel will try to use this matchup to his advantage so he doesn’t miss this chance to earn his next job in the NFL.

Colin Kaepernick ($5,100) – The 49ers will likely be playing from behind, and Kaepernick’s run game lifts his floor. He’s hit 4x value four times in eight weeks and 5x value twice. Even against tough defenses, a QB with running ability can still crush.

Landry Jones ($5,000) – It is an interesting experiment pitting the league’s worst defense against a very average backup QB, but last season Jones delivered 3x value against a tougher Patriots’ squad. The projected team total for the Steelers is at 24.3, they are at home and Cleveland is the second worst defense in football.

Running Back

Chris Ivory ($4,100) – The Jaguars are going to end the season strong, due largely to matchup. Ivory is left standing in a backfield that lost T.J. Yeldon already, and Ivory should see plenty of success against a Colts’ defense that is 30th overall against the run. He’s been limited in practice, so downshift into Corey Grant ($3,000) if Ivory can’t go.

Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4,300) – Running against the Browns is healthy for any opposing running back, as their Adjusted Line Yards (Football Outsiders) is way, way, way last at 4.62 yards per carry. With the Steelers expected to play the second and third string this week, Toussaint should get to make his mark on Week 17.

Zach Zenner ($3,200) – Mr. Preseason took 54 of the team’s 71 snaps at RB last week, and looks likely to do the same this week in a 49 point projected game total at home.

Devontae Booker ($3,500) – He’s an extremely inexpensive RB1 on a home team forecasted as a slight favorite, and got 2/3 of the snaps at RB in Week 16. He has been poor, but opportunity plus the 22nd ranked defense and 27th ranked run stopping defensive line makes Booker a value candidate way down in price.

Wide Receiver

Steve Smith, Sr. ($4,900) – The Narrative Street runs strong with this one, as Smith has been very emotional about this being his last game in the NFL. Smith has turned in a very solid season while on the field and draws a favorable individual matchup against Dre Kirkpatrick of the Bengals.

Paul Richardson ($3,400) – Richardson will step into the Tyler Lockett role, and the Seahawks need to get him up to first team speed before the playoffs. So, coming off a five target, four catch, 14.20 DK point performance in Week 16, Richardson should see good activity against the overwhelmed and extremely giving 49ers.

Eli Rogers ($4,000) – With most of the top tier talent for the Steelers resting in Week 17, Rogers should be the main receiver beneficiary. He gets his chance against the awful Browns’ defense, at home, which is a cherry on the sundae.

Mohamed Sanu ($4,600) – His seven targets inside the opponent’s’ 10-yard line this season leads the Falcons, and the home team has a team projected total of 32 points against the bottom-five ranked Saints’ defense.

J.J. Nelson ($4,600) – Nelson is the clear WR2 in Arizona now, getting the second most snaps behind Larry Fitzgerald and also 18 targets the last two weeks. He now gets a very good individual matchup against E.J. Gaines, who is ranked 115th out of 119 cornerbacks this season.

Tight End

Antonio Gates ($3,800) – So much narrative here, but Rivers targeted the potentially retiring TE 13 times against the Browns last week and may look to get Gates into the end zone a couple of times before the big guy hangs them up.

Eric Ebron ($3,600) – 12 targets in Week 16 and now a home game against the Packers that should feature quite a bit of passing, given the Packers’ sagging 20th ranked pass defense.

Charles Clay ($3,500)- The Bills have re-discovered Clay, targeting him 17 times over the past two games and Clay has delivered 15 catches and 48.7 DK points over that span as well. The Jets are going to allow passing yards, so Manuel should be looking short to Clay early and often.

Defense/Special Teams

Washington Redskins ($2,900) – The Giants are on the road, are touchdown underdogs, and are ranked 28th in turnovers per drive on offense while Washington ranks 11th in defensive turnovers per drive. The Redskins are also in a must-win game to make the playoffs, so there is added incentive here for a strong performance.

Atlanta Falcons ($2,400) – Oh yes, it should be a shootout, but the Saints rank 22nd in offensive turnovers per drive, and Atlanta playing from the lead are average at 16th in creating turnovers per drive.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.

Latest Headlines From

Joe Mixon • RB • CIN

Report: Joe Mixon (ankle) plans to play vs. 49ers

Listed as questionable on the Bengals' (-1) injury report, Mixon ($6,500) plans to play as long as he can get through pregame warmups without an issue, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. Last week against the Seahawks, Mixon scored just 3.7 DKFP prior to leaving with the ankle injury. This makes him an extremely risky play against an improved San Francisco (O/U 46) run defense. Even assuming he plays, there is a chance that Mixon is at less than 100% and he could potentially end up leaving the game early if he takes an awkward step on his bad ankle. If something goes wrong with Mixon in warmups, Giovani Bernard ($5,300) would likely start at running back for the Bengals (-114) and become one of the top value plays of the day.

Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon, listed as questionable for Sunday with a sprained ankle, is planning to play vs. the 49ers but wants to test the injury in pregame warmups just to make sure first, per source. But going in, Mixon plans to play.