Vilsack’s engagement could spell good news for U.S. agricultural exporters eager to trade with the island, which imports 80 percent of its food. While some U.S. states already trade with Cuba, substantial hurdles remain so long as the embargo that then-President John F. Kennedy implemented is in place.

In recent years, however, U.S. exports have lost ground to foreign competitors, especially to the European Union, Brazil, and, increasingly, China and Vietnam. One principal reason: U.S. law prohibits banks and businesses from offering Cubans credit. Instead, Cuba must go through a third party—a foreign bank—to access credit for U.S. goods. In 2015, U.S. exports to Cuba totaled $180.3 million, the lowest since 2002.

Business Potential

So far, the various sets of regulatory changes released since the onset of U.S.-Cuba rapprochement have done little to encourage U.S. farmers. But if the embargo were lifted, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba could be as much as $1.1 billion per year. Speaking before a U.S. House Foreign Affairs subcommittee, Congressman Ted Poe (R-TX) put the number at $4.3 billion, adding that it would create some 6,000 jobs in the United States.