May 30, 2012

Stabenow extends lead in Mich. Senate race

Raleigh, N.C. – Incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow is beginning to distance herself from her challengers as the general election nears.

Democrat Stabenow holds a 53-31 lead over potential Republican challenger Clark Durant, and a 53-37 lead over other potential Republican challenger Pete Hoekstra. Stabenow’s 22-point lead over Durant is a 5-point increase from February, when the last statewide poll was conducted. Stabenow’s lead over Hoekstra has grown 2 points since February.

Stabenow, who won comfortably in her last re-election effort in 2006 with 57% of the vote, is leading big again because of her appeal with both Democrats and Independents. Stabenow is hugely popular with state Democrats, receiving 88% and 89% when matched up with Durant and Hoekstra, respectively. Stabenow also wins big with Independents against both Republican candidates; 50-25 over Durant and 49-33 over Hoekstra.

Stabenow carries 60% of the female vote when matched up with either Hoekstra or Durant. Hoekstra wins with men over Stabenow 46-44.

If the Republican primary election was held today, Michigan Republicans would support Hoekstra over Durant 42-11, down from 42-9 in February, when state Republicans were last polled.

Hoekstra leads Durant in favorability among Michigan Republicans, 49-13. Durant is struggling with name recognition in his candidacy—voters in his own party are less familiar with him (78% not sure) than all Michigan voters (73% not sure).

“This looked like a potentially competitive race earlier in the cycle but Debbie Stabenow is in a pretty solid position now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Things are really going to have to go south for Democrats for this one to end up in the toss up column.”

PPP surveyed 500 Michigan voters and 360 Michigan Republican primary voters from May 24th to 27th. The margin of error for the general Michigan voter survey is +/-4.4% and +/- 5.2% for the Republican primary survey. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q4 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereDemocrat Debbie Stabenow and RepublicanClark Durant, who would you vote for?Debbie Stabenow ........................................... 53%Clark Durant.................................................... 31%Undecided....................................................... 16%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall wereDemocrat Debbie Stabenow and RepublicanPete Hoekstra, who would you vote for?Debbie Stabenow ........................................... 53%Pete Hoekstra................................................. 37%Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?John McCain................................................... 37%Barack Obama................................................ 53%Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 10%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 56%Man................................................................. 44%

Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 38%Republican...................................................... 28%Independent/Other.......................................... 34%

Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 14%30 to 45........................................................... 27%46 to 65........................................................... 39%Older than 65.................................................. 20%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 48%Man................................................................. 52%

Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 2%Republican...................................................... 65%Independent/Other.......................................... 33%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.18 to 45........................................................... 22%46 to 65........................................................... 43%Older than 65.................................................. 35%

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