moving averages

Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news, which is one reason they've swooned: No one can predict the long-term economic effects of Japan's earthquake or Middle Eastern upheaval. But technical analysis looks at the patterns deeper than the daily news, and the charts suggest a real bear ahead.

The economy has had more than its share of trouble lately: Japan's earthquake comes on top of rising oil and food prices, political turmoil in the Middle East and a crop of government austerity measures. But investor opportunities lie hidden among the bad news.

The technical signals suggest we're at a crucial decision point for the stock market: Either a decisive rise or a dramatic fall is coming. And if you're the type to dismiss technical analysis as unscientific voodoo, you're missing the point: It's not about pattern matching, it's about human psychology.

Just call this week%u2019s labor report a wash: Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped 13,000 to 462,000, but continuing claims plunged another 112,000, and the trend in state-level claims continues to provide evidence that the period of layoffs is subsiding.

Having hit 1,150 on Friday, the S&P 500 is now at a crossroad: Will it fall back, or continue marching up to the next technical target around 1,200? No one chart can say for sure, but here are some points to be aware of -- and to watch in coming days.

The market has been up and down for the past few months, and right now, it's down: But is this the end of the summer rally, or just a standard retrace in an uptrend? Technically, a strong case can be made that it is the latter -- just a typical retrace in a longer bullish trend.