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Sunday, January 15, 2006

Can anyone else step down for the republicans before the midterm elections? The more that step down, the better shot the Republicans have of not losing too many seats to Democrats. Distance from the evil--always a good maxim in politics. As I see it, I think the senate will take a blow from the House's whoredoms, and drop seats. Probably go from 55 Republicans down to 52+/-1. The House, I could see the house losing a lot more seats. The Cook Overview says:

The re-election rate for Senators averages 80 percent. It's closer to 95 percent in the House.

So in order for Democrats to win a majority in the Senate they would have to win the open seat in Tennessee, which is hardly a sure bet, and then defeat five incumbent Republican Senators. Today, only three look particularly vulnerable: Sens. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and Mike DeWine in Ohio.

...It appears today that Democrats will pick up two to four seats, which would leave Republicans with 51, 52 or 53 seats instead of the 55 seats they hold now.

See? They agree with me, and I didn't even have to do the pontificating.

I've thought that without the retrenching of the house by Republicans (which they are currently trying to do) they will lose about 15 seats. However, if they retrench effectively, it may be as few as 3-5. In this, the Cook overview disagrees with me. I put more weight in the discontent of electorates. Cook puts more weight in historic incumbant reelection numbers.

there just aren't enough competitive open seats or vulnerable Republican incumbents on the table for Democrats to have a realistic shot at winning a majority.

...As of mid-December, there were just 21 open seats (14 Republicans and 7 Democrats). Of those 14 GOP seats, just three of them are highly vulnerable: AZ-08 (Jim Kolbe), CO-07 (Bob Beauprez) and IA-01 (Jim Nussle). There are three more open seats that are competitive but lean Republican: CA-50 (Duke Cunningham), MN-06 (Mark Kennedy) and WI-08 (Mark Green).

...While there may be more Republican retirements in the coming months and some of those might be in competitive districts, and while Democrats do have some time before many filing deadlines for candidates pass, it is unlikely that they will be able to put the 50 Republican seats in play that is thought to be necessary to have a reasonable chance of scoring a net gain of 15 seats. A more likely result is that Democrats end up with a net gain of between four and nine seats, roughly cutting the Republican margin in half in this midterm election campaign.

It will be an interesting year. That's for sure.

Especially now that the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is planning a Holocaust Conference. Historically, when people have been concerned with foreign policy issues, Republicans gain seats. Any fear Americans have about Iran becoming a global force for terror or destruction will have people voting Republican even if they dislike Iraq. Also, Jews, historically democrat, are moving republican and may shift faster since the Iranian president keeps making anti-semitic comments.

So, the Republican losses may be a lot less than we all expect if Iran gets louder. That would give the Republicans more strength, and ironically, strengthen the political party President Ahmadinejad should be trying to oust.