Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

NFL: Pythagorean Projection 2011 -> 2012

We're coming down to training camps and the start of preseason football, so it's time for this year's edition of Pythagorean Projection!

Team

Projected Wins

Note

Rams

2.3

New HC

Colts

3.3

New HC, QB

Buccaneers

3.5

New HC

Chiefs

4.0

New HC

Browns

4.9

New QB

Jaguars

5.2

New HC

Vikings

5.5

Adrian Peterson coming off injury

Redskins

5.8

New QB

Broncos

5.8

Peyton Manning

Raiders

6.3

New HC, QB (again)

Bills

6.6

Cardinals

7.0

Panthers

7.5

Giants

7.9

Seahawks

8.2

New QB?

Titans

8.2

New QB?

Bears

8.3

Cutler &co healthy?

Jets

8.4

Tebow!

Dolphins

8.5

New HC, QB(?)

Cowboys

8.6

Bengals

8.6

Chargers

8.7

Falcons

9.3

Eagles

9.8

Lions

9.9

Lots of off-field drama

Texans

10.9

Schaub healthy

Ravens

11.2

Terrel Suggs hurt

Steelers

11.2

Patriots

11.6

Packers

11.9

Defense has to be better. Right?

Saints

12.1

New HC, DC

49ers

12.3

Comments:

The Rams are a really bad franchise. Four years during the
"Greatest Show on Turf" era are the only winning seasons they've
posted since 1989. Jeff Fisher seems like a pretty good coach,
but he's got his work cut out for him to make something of that
team.

The Bengals are another team with a long history of mostly
losing seasons. If they make it to 9 wins in 2012, it will be the
first time since 81-82 that they've had back-to-back winning
seasons.

I wonder how good Peyton Manning will be this year. 2010 was
really not a good year for him, although it's hard to say how much
that (in hindsight) weak supporting cast was at fault. But now
he's got a new team, a new coach, and who-knows-what for a
receiving corps. The good news is it could easily be another
year where 9 or 10 wins will take the AFC West, so the Broncos
should have some margin for error.

It seems like the Dolphins could be on the verge of... well,
not sucking as much as lately, anyway. But they need to win some
home games, and keep their quarterback (whoever that turns out to
be) healthy and productive for the whole season.
The list
of Dolphins starting quarterbacks since Marino retired is a
rogues gallery of has-beens and never-wases. And the list of
seasons where they had a quarterback even make it to 15 starts is
pathetically short.

The good news for Tarvaris Jackson is that 2011 was one of the
best seasons of his career. The bad news is, that was only good
for a 7-7 record, and it's not clear he's got a lot of room for
improvement. If Matt Flynn looks anywhere near as good in
preseason as he did in his week 17 start last year, Pete Carroll
is going to be hard pressed not give Flynn the starting spot.

The Saints have to be an early candidate for the team most
likely to fall well short of their projection. Given the bounty
scandal, suspension of coaches and players, as well as the
drama of Brees' protracted contract negotiation,
they're facing a lot of pretty major distractions and setbacks
this season.

I think the 49ers are going to be hard pressed to make it to 12
wins this year. I feel like they played at least a little over
their heads in 2011, and they're facing a tougher slate of opponents
this year. Their offense can be pretty weak at times (especially on
the road), and they're not going to be flying under anyone's radar in
2012...