“Given slowing sales growth at some of the leading wrist wearable companies, including Fitbit, there is a feeling that the wrist wearable category has been one giant head fake, a fad that just doesn’t contain much potential beyond tech enthusiasts,” Neil Cybart writes for Seeking Alpha. “This view not only ignores reality given the number of Apple Watches sold to date, but also fails to understand the path wrist wearables will follow.”

“The Apple Watch’s future will not be found just with better Watch cases updated on an annual schedule like an iPhone. Instead, Apple Watch bands deserve more attention going forward as they begin to incorporate technology and gain additional importance for wearable computing,” Cybart writes. “A smarter Watch band will play a crucial role in Apple Watch’s future as a personal technology device.”

“Apple sold approximately 10 million Apple Watches during the first eight months on the market, placing the Watch as the second best-selling new product category in Apple’s history. For perspective, Apple sold 15 million iPads during its first three quarters on the market,” Cybart writes. “The Watch’s future is not found by simply taking the way we use our iPhone and putting it on a smaller screen on our wrist. Instead, the Watch will gradually handle tasks we used to give to our iPhones. We already see this taking place in terms of sending and receiving messages and paying for things in stores.”

Apple Watch Sport models

“Instead of having the Watch case be the only “smart” piece, Apple will likely begin selling Watch bands that go much further than just representing pieces of fashion,” Cybart writes. “The fact that thinner Watch cases would seem to stand at odds with the need for additional battery space and the eventual inclusion of GPS and cellular connection may further stand as motivation for pushing certain components into Watch bands.”

MacDailyNews Take: If Apple doesn’t do “smartbands,” it’d be one of the company’s greatest missed opportunities ever.

• Whoever comes up with an accurate Apple Watch smartband that acts as a non-invasive blood glucose monitor (reverse iontophoresis) is going to make a mint. — MacDailyNews, August 24, 2015

• Oh yes, let there be add-on GPS, battery extenders, and more! The thought of wearing our Apple Watch Sports but also having to lug around our iPhones on runs just for the GPS is unpalatable. — MacDailyNews, March 5, 2015

• We can’t wait to see where the future leads for Apple Watch especially in the areas of speed (apps need to respond faster) and independence (less reliance on iPhone, perhaps via Apple “smartbands” that deliver things like GPS tracking for runners, extended battery life, etc.) — MacDailyNews, December 17, 2015

• We would love to see Apple launch Apple Smartbands that add sensor and other functionality to Apple Watch. An Apple GPS Smartband and an Apple Battery Smartband, right now, would sell like wildfire. It’s a missed opportunity for the original Apple Watch’s first Christmas, but we hope to see such items in 2016. — MacDailyNews, December 11, 2015

• If Apple were to release a range of “Apple Smartbands” for the existing Apple Watch, starting with the “Apple Smartband GPS,” they would sell millions more Apple Watch units with this move alone. — MacDailyNews, February 19, 2016

Apple has refused corporate transparency and will not reveal Apple Watch sales data. Apple insistst that this secrecy is absolutely necessary. Any attempts to “report” Apple Watch sales are pure fiction.

I was wrong about Apple Watch. I did not buy one got it as a gift. Will not be going back. Not as important as the phone but wow does it add amazing convience. Fashion IS a big part of the watch and its appeal. I’m in NO way a fashionable guy but I want to look professional at work and less dorky after work. I own 3 bands that I swap often for different times. I can’t believe the watch guys didn’t come up with the easy to change bands first!

If 40 million Apple Watch owners purchased $200 in Apple Watch bands every year then then the revenue would equal $8 billion and profit would be about the same amount of money Facebook has made over the last four quarters. The market cap for Facebook is $325 billion and the market cap for Apple is around $380 billion (with cash deducted). The band would only contribute about 3 percent of Apple’s total revenue, but theoretically it could grow earnings just as fast as Facebook is growing earnings. Does this mean that the rest of Apple’s business, which includes iPhones, iPads, Macs, services, the watch itself, etc. is only worth $65 billion (380 Apple – 325 Facebook/Apple Watch band)?

😉 Services and Other products are around 15 percent of Apple’s total sales or in the neighborhood of $37 billion a year. If profit is around $7 billion (twice the amount of Facebook) and these two categories are projected to grow 150 percent in four years then these two categories, on the conservative side, should have a multiple about half that of Facebook (around 42). This means that these two categories should be worth around $300 billion today. If so, then is 85 percent of Apple’s business only worth $80 billion? This means the market is assigning a P/E of 2 to the majority of Apple’s business (iPhone, iPad, Mac), and this number will decrease henceforth because of increases in cash and/or buy backs. A P/E of 2 means either the market thinks iPhone, iPad and Mac sales will decrease to zero over the next few years, or the stock is undervalued.