May 24, 2017

StormTALK! Wednesday Edition

DISCUSSION:

Very busy pattern so expect changes to the forecast.

Let's dive right in.

This afternoon:Conditional threat for severe weather. The track of the low into central KY and how much instability can build on the eastern side of it will greatly determine how this plays out. At that moment, eastern KY stands a great potential for a few warnings for high winds and isolated tornadoes. It "iffy" zone is roughly I-65 to I-75. This is where a few counties east or west in the track will change things. Just too early to make that call yet...but be prepared along I-65 for a few strong storms later but don't be surprised if a) threat never materializes b) it is too far east. Nowcasting situation there.

Tonight:Steady rain pivots more into IN with some dry pockets into southern KY.

Thursday:The "pivoting" continues with WAVE Country on the backside of the low. The backlash showers look to take place early in the day with dry air trying to eat into our area by the afternoon. That will break up the showers and even allow for some blue sky to break through at times. This means we could climb into the 70s...but not until the end of the day with those sun breaks.

Friday:Warm front moves north. It looks warm and humid. Highs jump into the 80s. The question here will be a wave of energy that will pass to our north Friday night that may spark a complex of t-storms that would race toward Cincy. With higher dewpoints closer to Louisville, this may allow for it to build/bend more south to impact parts of our area overnight with some strong winds. Just something to monitor.

Saturday:While a t-storm is possible at any point, most of the day looks hazy and humid. The concern for this day will be once again...at night. The atmosphere has a chance to become moderately/very unstable at the afternoon. This combined with a piece of strong winds aloft that night could set up a severe complex of t-storms. Wind damage the concern with that. We just can't pinpoint yet the timing and track. We should get a better handle on this one some of the more hi-res models latch on.

Sunday:Early radar activity should limited rain coverage in the afternoon. A few pop-up t-storms may form along a cold front that will move in. It will just depend on how much clearing we see during the day.

Memorial Day:Looks dry. And pleasant! There will be a lobe of moisture aloft that will rotate in by Monday evening that could spark a shower...but that looks to be after sunset if that were to happen.