In this week’s Green Felt , I consider how Las Vegas might just have a few lessons for Macau after all:

Once those architects began planning resorts, however, it became apparent that Asia was not Las Vegas, and that what worked so well here for the previous generation—large slot parlors with table-gaming cores—was not at all adaptable to conditions on the ground in China. So American operators—Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International—did the adapting, emphasizing baccarat while adjusting to a market where VIP play dwarfed the mass market.

There’s a line between trying to replicate what works in Las Vegas just because it works in Las Vegas and figuring out how to make things that worked in Las Vegas work in other areas. I think we are seeing companies navigating that line.

As an Atlantic City native and an observer of the casino scene, I’ve gotten asked my opinion on what’s happening there. I’m glad to have the chance to write a column that summarizes how I feel. It’s a bit of a history lesson and a cautionary tale:

Atlantic City casinos prospered in those years because they were the only game not just in town, but in the entire eastern half of the country. Within five years of New Jersey voters approving gaming, nine hotel-casinos were in operation, drawing 19 million visitors to the formerly moribund seaside resort, employing 30,000 people, and pulling in more than $1 billion a year.

In response to this photo and Bat-Signal request for more info, I wanted to post a link to an Atlantic City history column I’d written for Casino Connection a few (nine) years back. Turns out that it’s one of the 10 or so AC history pieces not in the Casino Connection archives.

Looking at the sixty or so articles I wrote for Casino Connection over the years, I think I have the core of a pretty good book. But some articles will need some revision, both for content and style.

So here is the entire article, which has the answer to the original question, “What is this?”…after the jump.

Revel, Atlantic City’s first new casino in nearly a decade, has been called “Cosmopolitan East,” for its similarities, real and supposed to the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. Like the Cosmo, it’s put a great deal of emphasis on its non-gaming amenities, and, like the Cosmo, it’s struggled on the casino floor. In June, Revel’s win per slot per day—a valuable metric of casino performance—was the lowest in the city.

I’ve got a very special Green Felt Journal out in today’s Vegas Seven. No, it’s not like a “very special episode” of Diff’rent Strokes or The Fact of Life that’s going to pontificate on a current social issue. Instead, I’m talking about the usual stuff I talk about in that space–gambling, casinos, and tourism–but in a much more personal way than I usually do. Here’s a snippet:

The Atlantic City I left was on the other side of history: a city left for dead, one that maybe, someday, might come back. Like Las Vegas, it blew up its past; some of my earliest memories were the implosions of the grand Boardwalk hotels. But this wasn’t replacing the Dunes with Bellagio. Old Atlantic City—the Traymore, the Marlborough-Blenheim, Million Dollar Pier—hadn’t been improved upon; gold had been replaced with concrete and red neon, when anything was built at all. Unlike Las Vegas, you never could shake the sense that you were one or two generations from the golden age.

I usually don’t get that autobiographical, because there’s usually not that much of a need for me to put myself into the story. After all, it’s usually pretty straight-forward stuff–a personality profile, a sketch of a current issue–that calls for, at most, some editorial comment, but not much personal reflection.

So this is a different kind of writing for me, but for this story, it’s a path that I had to take. If it succeeds, it’s largely due to the unstinting support and fantastic sounding board of my editor, Greg Blake Miller.

On a more (literally) pedestrian note, I’ve also got some thoughts on Revel over on Two Way Hard Three. I liked the place, quite a bit, but there were a few things that left me scratching my head.

In case you missed it, I’ve recently posted two Atlantic City-related pieces on Two Way Hard Three. The first is the complete text of my answers to questions Wayne Parry asked me about Atlantic City:

The AP’s Wayne Parry wrote an excellent article about Atlantic City’s rise and fall. He reached out to me for my thoughts, and I answered several of his questions. Obviously, with space constraints being what they are I figured most of what I said wouldn’t make it into the story, so I planned to post it here so I could share my thoughts with a broader audience. You can see many of the numbers I reference in my Atlantic City Gaming Revenue (pdf) report.

Last week, I decided to gloat a little and revisit a past prediction I made about mini-casinos and Trump Marina:

Landry’s Inc. a Houston-based company that owns a full spread of restaurant chains and Downtown Las Vegas and Laughlin’s Golden Nuggets, has officially taken ownership of the now-former Trump Marina and will be putting about $100 million into renovating it. Meanwhile, a vaunted plan to allow “mini-casinos” has resulted in exactly zero construction to date. That’s exactly what anyone would have predicted when the mini-casino concept was first mooted, and it’s a good sign that some operators, at least, see some upside in the market.

I mixed together some history and numbers stuff, which seems to be the way most of my work is going these days. Fun stuff. I still don’t see how the mini-casinos make sense if they cost more than full-sized casinos and have less revenue potential.

If you’ve missed it, I’ve got a post up at Two Way Hard Three that explains Landry’s purchase of Trump Marina and the return of the Golden Nugget to Atlantic City, with some bonus historical context:

Landry’s Inc. a Houston-based company that owns a full spread of restaurant chains and Downtown Las Vegas and Laughlin’s Golden Nuggets, has officially taken ownership of the now-former Trump Marina and will be putting about $100 million into renovating it. Meanwhile, a vaunted plan to allow "mini-casinos" has resulted in exactly zero construction to date. That’s exactly what anyone would have predicted when the mini-casino concept was first mooted, and it’s a good sign that some operators, at least, see some upside in the market.

Since I wrote it, I’ve seen two stories, one of which confirms something I said. Trump Plaza is potentially on the market, which I alluded to in the TWHT piece. Second, Hard Rock is apparently about to pull permits to build a $300 million mini-casino at Albany Avenue and the Boardwalk–right across from the site of the old Atlantic City High School.

I spent a lot of time in my TWHT piece talking about what a lousy idea that was, and I haven’t seen anything to convince me otherwise. When you can get 1,000 rooms and 2,000 slots in a totally renovated building for $138 million, why would you pay $300 million for one-quarter or less of a facility–200-500 rooms with about 510 slots? I ran the numbers and I just don’t see how it could possibly be profitable.

If anyone has an explanation, I’m willing to listen. It’s totally possible that I’m missing something here, but it’s also possible that I’m not. Back in 2007 there were a lot of smart people who thought Strip condos were a can’t-lose proposition, so I’m not so sure that, just because someone can borrow hundreds of millions of dollars they’re smart enough to spend it.

Looks like change is in the air in Atlantic City. First off, Trump Marina is apparently going to change hands. As the Atlantic City Press reports, Landry’s Inc., which owns Golden Nuggets in Downtown Las Vegas and Laughlin, is planning to buy the property for $38 million and give it a through facelift, both inside and out. If the Press’s photo of a rendering is any guide, this will really revitalize the casino and add another must-see property to the Marina district.

I think there’s a lot that Landry’s can do with the Trump Marina. For one, they’ve got the marina right there, which is really a unique asset. I could see them doing something like The Tank at the property, and their seafood-based brands, like Chart House at the high end and plenty more at the lower end, are a natural fit.

The other big news is that the Atlantic City Hilton is officially for sale (again, courtesy of the Press). Anyone want to scrape together $30 million or so and put in a bid?

Looking at the chronology, I realized something. The property was known as the Golden Nugget for about 7 years (late 1980-1987), Bally’s Grand/The Grand (A Bally’s Casino Resort) for about 9 years, and the Atlantic City Hilton from 1996 to today, about 15 years. But it’s still “the Nugget” to me.

It seems like the market has really corrected in Atlantic City, and with bottom-of-the-market casinos now going in the $30-$40 million range and regulatory reform becoming a reality, we might see regional operators kicking the tires.

Anyone remember back in 2007, when the Casino Control Commission thought someone would pay $1 billion for the Tropicana? How times have changed.

In this week’s Las Vegas Business Press, I share my thoughts about the just-passed Atlantic City casino regulatory reform:

After suffering its fourth consecutive year of declining casino revenues, Atlantic City might finally be feeling the winds of reform. But will a planned regulatory overhaul be too little, too late to save the city’s slumping gaming industry?

First, a look at where Atlantic City is today. After about 20 years (1986-2006) of steady growth at an annual rate of more than 4 percent, the city’s casino revenues began to nosedive in 2007 — a year before Nevada’s revenues started to slip. Although Nevada is on pace for a slight gain in revenues for 2010, Atlantic City suffered another nearly double-digit decline.

The interesting thing is to look at Atlantic City’s historical growth. From 1978 to 1985, when the industry was adding casinos, there was incredible growth. After that, it was decent, just about outpacing inflation for the next twenty years. Table play, however, stagnated. Since 2007, both table and slot play have plunged.

So it’s a problem that goes beyond the recession and beyond the internal working of the state’s regulatory structure. By itself the reforms won’t save the city’s gaming industry, but they might be the first step in the right direction.

Big Six is a minor casino game, but one that has high visibility on most casinos floors. Positioned where it is easily accessible by casual and novice gamblers, the game offers payouts as high as 45 to 1. But all of the bets, particularly, the longshots, have relatively large advantages for the house, ranging from about 11% to over 24%. The game is one of the worst bets on the casino floor for gamblers.

Looking at field results from a single table in an Atlantic City casino over four years, it is clear that this is a wheel that spins predominantly to the house’s, rather than player’s, advantage. The average win percentage of 42.25% for the period examined explains why seasoned gamblers avoid this game.

I’m glad I took a look at the game–it didn’t take long, and it’s nice practice for testing assumptions a little more controversial than “Big Six isn’t such a great game.”

I fully expect to get several emails from outraged Big Six players, telling me how they’ve won hundreds of dollars on the game over the years.

If you’re in this boat, and are getting ready to email me to tell me I “got it wrong” about this game, here is the offer I’ll make: if you can replicate your winning formula for Big Six in a casino with me or another representative watching and recording all of the details for your bets over several hours, I’m willing to test your theory. If you’re right, we will have found something new.