It's only since HSPA and 1xEV-DO began to deliver on the promise of mobile
broadband in 2006-2008 that the case for packet backhaul with Layer 2
switching or Layer 3 routing evolved from being considered bizarre to becoming
a no-brainer. The transition triggered the first deployments of conventional,
high-capacity provider edge routers at points of aggregation, together with
smaller form-factor cell site router product types, as well as out to each
individual cell site.

Trends in telecom networking point to an upcoming inflexion point in the
evolution of the role of routing in the backhaul network. This has the
potential to impact the demand for dedicated routers and the positioning of
both incumbent and new-entrant vendors in this market space. Many of the
drivers of demand for dedicated routers show no signs of abating: Mobile data
traffic volumes continue to increase substantially; new macro, micro and small
cells continue to be turned up in greater volume; new performance requirements
are being introduced via VoLTE and LTE-Advanced (LTE-A). Moreover, fear of the
complexity and cost of using L3 in the access layer of the backhaul network,
while still present in some developing markets, is subsiding just as surely as
it has in the core and aggregation layers over the last several years.

In the absence of any countervailing trends, demand for the same breed of
dedicated L3 routers that generated $2.1 billion in sales in 2013 would
clearly be expected to increase. But there are countervailing trends: In the
last year or so, new models have emerged for routing in the backhaul.
Software-defined networking (SDN) and network functions virtualization (NFV)
are now impacting the industry's thinking about routers - or just routing - in
the backhaul. Consistent with NFV, routing can be centrally located and
accessed as virtual instances by other backhaul nodes, rather than requiring
dedicated routers throughout the backhaul. And SDN controllers have the
potential to reduce, or even eliminate, the need for L3 control intelligence
in dedicated backhaul devices.

The success rate of vendors in the backhaul routing market will be materially
impacted by the direction operators take. Incumbent router vendors will
inevitably see their market share decline if they fail to take full account of
both the threats and opportunities that NFV and SDN present. New-entrant
vendors that are prepared to position themselves at the very leading edge of
SDN and NFV technology and business cases for backhaul networks have their
sights set on capturing operator capex, some or all of which might otherwise
be spent on dedicated routers.

The Future of Routing in 4G Mobile Backhaul Networks reviews the
evolving role of routing and routing products in mobile backhaul networks in
the context of these emerging trends in telecom networking. As mobile
operators grapple with the need to expand their network capacity and agility
to support ever more powerful smartphones and advanced apps, this report
forecasts operator demand for routers in the backhaul network through the end
of 2017.

The report profiles 16 leading mobile backhaul routing vendors,
including some key players whose product strategies are disruptive to market
demand for routers in the backhaul network.

Mobile operators and backhaul wholesale providers began rolling out Ethernet
backhaul in earnest in developed markets in the 2007-2008 time frame. As shown
in the excerpt below, Heavy Reading estimates that Ethernet backhaul reached
more than 50 percent of the world's cell sites at some point during 2013, and
is now headed for 69 percent by the end of 2014.

Heavy Reading estimates a cumulative total of 2 million routers have been
shipped worldwide for deployment in mobile backhaul networks through the end
of 2013, as shown in the excerpt below. This includes the smallest form factor
cell site routers deployed at the furthest cell site at the edges of the
mobile network, as well as the highest-capacity platforms deployed at interim
points of concentration in the aggregation, and at the handover to the core.
We estimate almost 1 million units of router equipment were shipped into
backhaul networks worldwide during 2013.

Report Scope & Structure

The Future of Routing in 4G Mobile Backhaul Networks is structured as
follows:

Section I is an introduction to the report, with complete report key
findings.

Section II provides the background to how, why and on what scale
routers have been deployed in mobile backhaul networks throughout the world -
whether at individual cell sites, intermediate points of concentration or
aggregation, or at the point of handover between the transport and the core
network. It also depicts the competitive environment between the leading
vendors in the five years through the end of 2013.

Section III depicts key ongoing and upcoming trends in networking
requirements and capabilities, both in regard to the direction of 3G and 4G
network evolution such as LTE-A, as well as to broader trends in telecom
networking such as SDN and NFV. These trends are assessed as the background to
analyzing what impact - if any - these new networking trends are likely to
have on operator demand for routers in the backhaul network going forward.

Section IV provides guidance to router vendors with respect to how they
will need to position themselves for success in shipping product for
deployment in backhaul networks over the next three years in the context of
new requirements emanating from the LTE-A standards, as well as from trends
toward SDN and NFV.

Section V provides Heavy Reading's global forecast for operator demand
for routers in the backhaul network through the end of 2017. It provides the
forecast in terms of global unit volumes, as well as global market revenue. It
provides contextual analysis of the likely interplay between the drivers of,
and barriers to, operator demand for backhaul routers discussed in Sections
III and IV.

Section VI profiles the leading vendors in this space, as well as some
key players whose product strategies are disruptive to market demand for
routers in the backhaul network.

The Future of Routing in 4G Mobile Backhaul Networks is published in
PDF format.