Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Game 2 Preview

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The Mavericks took Game 1 of this series and they did it with a masterpiece from superstar Dirk Nowitzki. The Big German was un-guardable going for 48 points on 12/15 shooting and he hit all 24 of his free throws. The Mavs were lights out in the game shooting 53.1% from the floor and their bench came up HUGE combining to score 53 points. Kevin Durant had a big game (40 points), but Russell Westbrook really struggled and for the Thunder to win Game 2 and win this series they will need their pair of All Stars to both play well.

Game 1 was won by the Mavs 121-112 with Dallas covering the spread and the total obviously went Over.

This season the Mavs are 54-36-3 ATS and the Thunder are 49-44-2 ATS. The Mavs have covered the spread in every home game this post-season.

Shaun Marion (11 points 5/10 shooting) was the only other starter that scored in double figures in Game 1.

The Thunder have to do a better job defending the smaller reserve guards of Jason Terry and Jose Juan Barea, who combined for 45 points off the bench on 16/28 shooting and they buried 6 of their 11 3-pointers. The Thunder were so concentrated on Nowitzki that they let these guys have too many open looks and get into the lane and score. That cannot happen again or the Thunder will be going home in a 0-2 hole.

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Russell Westbrook did go for 20 points in Game 1 and he did a good job getting to the free throw line (14/18), but he was only 3/15 from the floor and he committed 4 turnovers. If he struggles with his shooting again he has to keep attacking the rim, but he also has to dish out the rock more. He only had 3 assists in Game 1.

Westbrook is key in Game 2, as in Game 1 every other Thunder starter and 6th man James Harden all shot at least 50% from the floor.

While history is on the side of the Mavs since the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the series 78.6% of the time the Thunder lost Game 1 in their last series against Memphis and went on to win the series.

Betting Trends

Oklahoma City is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Dallas is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games, 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams in Dallas the total has gone Over every time.