Garza's start tonight could be last at Wrigley

Matt Garza should get a nice ovation Saturday night in what figures to be his last start at Wrigley Field in a Chicago Cubs uniform.

Garza will face the Cardinals in a nationally televised game at 6:15 p.m. on WFLD-Ch. 32.

Manager Dale Sveum announced Friday that Garza would start July 22 in Arizona, if he hasn’t already been traded. That would mean Garza is on schedule for a July 27 start in San Francisco and a July 31 start against Milwaukee at Wrigley.

But the deadline on July 31 is at 3 p.m., Chicago time, so even if the Cubs take it to the deadline, as they did with Ryan Dempster last year, Garza would be gone before the 7 p.m. start.

Garza said Monday there was a 50-50 chance he could stay with an extension, or by the Cubs simply not trading him. That’s an exaggeration, but the Cubs haven’t ruled anything out.

President Theo Epstein said only there was “a chance to possibly retain him beyond this year.” Outside of the extension that doesn’t appear likely, that would happen if the Cubs didn’t trade him and after the season Garza accepted the one-year qualifying offer equal to the average salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players. Last year that figure was $13.3 million. Garza likely would decline since he’d be risking a significant payday if he got injured again.

So Epstein will hold out for the best offer, and seems to be in no hurry. He said Friday he’ll probably be at the Futures Game on Sunday in Citi Field, but won’t be at the All-Star Game.

He’s usually glued to his iPhone no matter where he is, and Epstein theoretically could pull off a trade while at next Friday’s Pearl Jam concert at Wrigley.

Cleveland, Boston, Texas and other contenders are likely to be in the mix, though the Cubs' price tag remains high.

Last July the Angels sent promising shortstop Jean Segura and two Double-A pitchers -- Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena -- to Milwaukee for Zack Greinke to help them get into the postseason. The Angels didn’t make it, and Greinke left to sign with the crosstown Dodgers over the winter. Segura was recently selected to the NL All-Star squad.

Any team acquiring Garza has to risk the same, since the Cubs’ need to cash in with the hottest pitcher on the market in their hands. They’re on pace for only 89 losses, which at this point would mean the No. 9 draft pick in 2014, not a “slam dunk” pick like a top three.

The summer sell-off is already in motion, so there are no real surprises in store.

“It’s just something that we have to reconcile that we got off to a difficult start,” Epstein said. “So that put us in a position where something truly magical and off the grid would have to happen for us to get back into contention.

"When that happens, then you have to take a cold look at it and recognize that if there are trades that you can make that improve the organization, you have to look at them.

“Had we gotten off to a better start… We had a positive run differential (on Wednesday), (so) you could say ‘If certain things break our way’ and we’re on the outskirts of the race with a chance to get back in... (Then) it’s a totally different equation. That’s just the reality of it.”

The Cubs are 10 games out of the NL Wild Card spot, and there is no reason to believe they could go on a 10-game win streak. Their season-high is four.

“Our job is to be realistic about where we are and where we’re going and act accordingly,” Epstein said.

So that probably means a warm Wrigley good-bye to Garza on a perfect Saturday night for baseball.