Achieving Uganda’s Development Ambition: The Economic Impact for Green Growth, An Agenda for Action

Vivid Economics worked together with a consortium of partners to improve the Government of Uganda’s understanding of the challenges and opportunities related to a green growth model of development. The work addressed four questions: 1. Is green growth an economic opportunity for Uganda? 2. Given the range of urgent development priorities, is green growth affordable? 3. What are the key policy shifts required for green growth to support the aims of the NDPII and Vision 2040? 4. What are the actions required to drive implementation? The work used macroeconomic and sector modelling along with expert stakeholder engagement to assess the economic case for the implementation of 23 priority green growth interventions in Uganda spanning the agriculture, industry, energy, and urban infrastructure sectors. The report put special focus on the role of green growth in Uganda’s urban infrastructure development – a particularly salient issue given Uganda’s rapid urbanisation. The report found that many of these investments would support not only economic outcomes, but also pro-poor social and environmental outcomes. If the identified, highest-value interventions were fully implemented, they could provide a boost to economic activity, worth around 10% of GDP by 2040 compared to business as usual; corresponding to employment of up to 4 million jobs; and reducing future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 28% relative to a conventional growth pathway (exceeding Uganda’s current nationally determined contribution).