By Tiernan Ray

Welcome to the new year, dear readers, and welcome back to some things going on this morning in your world of tech:

The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 10.96, or 0.6%, at 1,837.40.

It’s here: The staff of AllThingsD, now no longer a publication at Dow Jones, have moved onto a new venture, Revere Digital, run by co-CEOs Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg, with a Web site, Recode.net, published in conjunction with NBC Universal, along with a companion conference business. Here’s wishing them the best in 2014.

Shares of Apple (AAPL) are down $7.75, or 1.4%, at $553.27, after Wells Fargo‘s Maynard Um cut his rating on the shares from Outperform to Market Perform, while maintaining a $536 to $581 price target, writing that the stock price already discounts margin expansion he’s expecting from sales of the iPhone 5S. He’s concerned about three things: “1) GM will come under pressure later this year in the iPhone 6 cycle; 2) there is limited amount of incremental market cap opportunity in the existing product segments Apple plays in (including the TV and watch opportunities) without material market share gains; and 3) the balance of power may start to shift back to wireless operators from handset vendors.

On the other hand, Cantor Fitzgerald‘s Brian White this mornign reiterates a Buy rating, and a $777 price target, writing that after a “challenging 2013,” the stock is the firm’s “top large-cap pick” for the year, which he thinks will be “a year of innovation.”

“Our research suggests Apple has been working hard to excite investors in 2014 with new product innovations,” writes White, predicting that based on recent “checks” in Asia, “Apple will ride the holiday momentum into 2014.”

Shares of touch-screen technology maker Uni-Pixel (UNXL) are down 15 cents, or 1.6%, at $9.86, following the departure earlier in the week of the company’s CEO and COO, with no immediate replacements. Cowen & Co.’s Robert Stone this morning downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform, writing “if UNXL does not deliver on remaining milestones, it may not receive expected payments from preferred capacity partners, and the longer it takes to ramp, the more market share it may cede to other ITO replacement options.”

Stifel Nicolaus‘s George Askew this morning reiterates a Hold rating on shares of Netflix (NFLX), reflecting on reports Tuesday that it is testing a new price scheme for streaming video to multiple devices in the home, the most prominent aspect of which seemed to be a lower entry price of $6.99, as Mashable‘s Todd Wassermanwrote. Askew thinks the new pricing, if formally rolled out, could add to revenue this year: “We estimate 3Q13 ARPU for Netflix domestic streaming subscribers was $7.98.”

“If 10% of Netflix’ domestic subscribers moved to each of the two new plans, we estimate domestic streaming monthly ARPU would climb about $0.08 or 1%, suggesting a total company annual revenue increase of about $32 million in 2014.”

Netflix shares are down $3.56, or 1%, at $364.62.

Evercore Partners‘s Ken Sena this morning raises targets on a raft of Internet names, including Amazon.com (AMZN), AOL (AOL), Google (GOOG), Twitter (TWTR), and Yahoo! (YHOO), after concluding that online video advertising is set to surge the next three years, writing that it “will increase to $8.1 billion by 2016, a 37% compound annual growth rate from the $3 billion Magna Global estimates, and in excess of Magna’s 2016 estimate of $6.1 billion, or a 24% CAGR, which accounts for about one-third of global.”

Twitter shares this morning are up $1.81, or 2.8%, at $65.46.

Shares of Sprint (S) are down 38 cents, or 3.4%, at $10.37, after Cowen‘s Colby Synesael this morning cut his rating on the shares to Market Perform from Outperform, while actually raising his price target to $8.25 from $7.50, writing that “with Sprint shares up 93% since since NewSprint shares began trading on the NYSE in early July compared to the S&P which is up 12% and 32% since December 12, 2013 compared to the S&P which is up 4%, we believe additional upside in the near-to-midterm is unlikely.”

Wells’s David Wong cut his rating on shares of Analog Devices (ADI) to Market Perform from Outperform, writing that a slew of lackluster forecasts for the December quarter “creates uncertainty with regard to what chip companies might guide for March 2014/April 2014 quarter revenues.” While Wong expects chip revenue to pick up later this year broadly, it could hurt ADI, whose “days of inventory” rose 2 days to 111 days in the October quarter.

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There are 6 comments

JANUARY 2, 2014 10:58 A.M.

Ed wrote:

Well, Tim Cook has Apple off to another exciting year! Stock down 8 and not a peep from Apple. Same BS as last year. You would think that the Apple Board and Cook would have learned their lesson from last year and begin to defend the stock and shareholders from this blatant manipulation. Well I guess we were all wrong. Tim Cook is the WORST F CEO in all of TECHNOLOGY! How is this DOPE still the CEO?

JANUARY 2, 2014 11:00 A.M.

Bill wrote:

Nice job Maynard Um, who the F are you? Glad you have all these concerns while increasing your price target. What crooked fund paid you to write this garbage?

JANUARY 2, 2014 11:07 A.M.

Peter wrote:

Apple shareholders: See everything you own. Put your hard earned money into Twitter, Facebook, and Google. Apple is the same old Apple. It is now a Boring Dividend Stock that is going nowhere. Apple is the new Cisco. Cook is the new Chambers. Talks a good game, delivers Squat, and could care less about Shareholders. Cook is the new Chambers, getting filthy rich with stock options and bonuses, while the Shareholders lose everything and wonder why the stock is stuck in the mud while others Soar. Yes Sir, welcome to the Graveyard for Dead Stocks. Apple is the new Cisco! Enjoy

JANUARY 2, 2014 11:55 A.M.

Rottan Frewt wrote:

No Happy New Year for Apple shareholders. The stock is starting the new year off just like it did last year. On a down note. Another downgrade due to falling margins. Apple stock is down to pre-China Mobile levels. It's almost guaranteed that Amazon will pass Apple in share price this year. Google will likely reach $1500 a share and Apple will stay lower than $600 a share. You can thank Tim Cook for this mess. Apple needs to use that cash reserve and expand the business into new markets. It's as simple as that. Apple's revenue is completely capped by Android devices saturating the entire mobile market. Most consumers are happy with the cheapest products they can buy and to some degree that's completely understandable. $200 Android tablets. $200 Chromebooks. $200 unlocked Android smartphones. $40 Chromecasts. See the pattern? Why Apple doesn't see this I don't know.

Apple will continue to tread water at its current price level but there's nowhere for Apple's core mobile hardware business to grow. Apple has to move on to new grasslands. Apple will never have a direct answer to Android. Google will continue to deliberately block any of Apple's attempts to grow market share. That's where Tim Cook doesn't have a clue. Apple needs to go directly after Google's core search engine business with its own search engine and ad business on all of Apple's devices. That would be the easiest way to gain revenue for itself and take revenue away from Google. Apple also has the option to start its own mobile payments business or build more server farms and go into the cloud services business. Apple is just bashing its head and shareholders's heads by trying to sell more iPhones and tablets against the horde of cheap Android devices which have totally saturated the mobile industry. It's just so stupid for Apple to keep holding onto a mountain of reserve cash while other companies are expanding with far less capital. Wall Street does not give a damn about Apple's huge unused cash reserve except to get it into their own pockets.

Why can't Apple simply follow the trends of other companies in terms of growing revenue? Apple thinks in too narrow a range. Hardware and more hardware is not the answer due to falling profit margins. Apple is the only company that requires huge profit margins just to stay afloat. Even all those added Apple retail stores aren't enough to grow Apple's revenue enough to move the share price. Apple just doesn't seem to have the type of management to guide the company financially with all the cash that it has. I can't wait to hear Tim Cook's excuse this quarter as to why Apple's share price is stagnant. He'll probably talk about some vague new exciting products in the pipeline. Investors don't pay attention to vague replies. How can anyone get excited over something like that? This year will likely be a repeat of last year's share price disaster with no hope on the horizon.

JANUARY 2, 2014 11:55 A.M.

orion wrote:

I was sounding a red alert about impending margin implosion and rapid demand erosion a couple weeks ago when top-of-the-line Apple products were on fire sale at deep discounters like Walmart, Target, Best Buy, etc., and yet supplies were as plentiful as ever. The fire sale intensifies today in Japan (and throughout Asia) where customers are getting thousands worth of products through the so-called Lucky Bags for under $400. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know things are going downhill fast at Apple.

I also warned that Apple was going to report a negative yoy growth quarter later this month and a loudsy guidance in spite of the much hyped CM contract, which Apple had no choice but to sell their phones and tablets to CM at rock bottom prices to dump excess inventory. I predicted analysts would need to cut estimates to bring them closer to reality and to turn an earnings miss into a beat to prop up stock price, just like they did the last several quarters.

Expect the AAPL house of pain to become house of terror.

JANUARY 2, 2014 3:32 P.M.

Eddie Baby+Bill the Shill+Peter the peter eater+Orion the boring+Rottan Frewt the newt... wrote:

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.