Flash Flood Watch Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Expanded

After last night’s severe weather outbreak it has brought heavy rains in many areas. We are at the point now that any additional severe weather (and there will be additional severe weather) will bring flash flooding quickly so we have a flood watch in effect for much of New Jersey & Pennsylvania. This area was hit hard by severe weather with numerous tornado & severe thunderstorm warnings last night and is likely to get hit hard again tonight.

We are seeing a similar set up to yesterday with a buckling frontal boundary that lies across Northern New Jersey to Long Island. To the south of that boundary line we are see sunshine breaking out across Central and Southern New Jersey where highs today will reach the 80s to near 90. To the northeast we will be watching the warm front to see how far north it gets and how much destabilization of the atmosphere occurs. The risk area extends further north and east today verses yesterday and includes much of Long Island, Southern New England and the Hudson Valley. New Jersey & Pennsylvania look to be the battle ground for a widespread outbreak.

SATELLITE

REGIONAL RADAR

Radars are reasonably quiet this morning with two small dying area of showers moving southeastward. We don’t expect much to develop until this afternoon when the radar will probably light up like a Christmas tree.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

Examining weather models show uniformity in thunderstorms impacting the entire area. The HRRR and the NAM model are almost in lock step with a solid line of severe thunderstorms moving through in a linear fashion between 4pm and 8pm. This is going to be a very stormy evening commute.

Once the thunderstorms are done we will see leftover clouds tonight with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday we will do it one more time with another warm front pushing northward and a cold front pushing eastward so it will be very warm and humid with highs in the 80s to near 90 in some spots. Severe weather will be possible once again late in the day Thursday into Thursday night before a cold front moves through.

Dry air will finally arrive on Friday as the upper air pattern changes across the US. We will see some sunshine with lower humidity and no thunderstorm threat. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The weekend has become decidedly more complex now that a trough returns to the east. It looks like another cold front will arrive on Saturday with some late showers possible. The front is likely to stall and that does not bode well for Sunday. We will take a closer look at the weekend later today if there is time with all the severe weather potential today coming front and center first.

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.