Blog Archive

Posts for September, 2010

Welcome to "The Wisconsin Voter," a political blog that’s less about politicians than the people who elect them.

This is a blog about election trends, public opinion and the political map - about what makes voters in Wisconsin different from voters in Wyoming, about what makes voters in Brookfield different from voters in Bayfield, about short-term shifts in the election climate and long-term shifts in the electorate.

This blog debuts roughly six weeks before the state’s most competitive midterm election in decades. What happens this November could easily upend the political leadership and partisan balance of power in Wisconsin, with consequences for the 2012 presidential election and the political decade to come. | Sept. 23, 2010»Read Full Blog Post(16)

After a polling lull, a batch of new public surveys is once again reshaping perceptions of the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, showing GOP challenger Ron Johnson leading Democrat Russ Feingold by anywhere from 6 to 11 points among likely voters.

The three latest surveys, taken this week and last, are quickly turning Johnson into the presumed front-runner within the political world. Expect to see some nonpartisan handicappers reclassifying the race from “tossup” to one that favors Republicans. The race has already been reclassified at Pollster.com and Five Thirty Eight , the elections blog hosted by the New York Times, which almost overnight has changed its forecast for a Feingold victory from a probability of 67% to a probability of 21%.

President Obama’s visit to the UW-Madison campus next Tuesday is all about mobilizing young voters, clearly a big challenge for the Democratic Party this fall. Under-30 voters were Democrats’ best age group in 2006 and 2008. But they are also the age group least likely to turn out in a mid-term election.

Take a look at the chart below for a sense of how much older the electorate typically is in off-years compared to presidential years. The numbers come from the Wisconsin exit polls: | Sept. 23, 2010»Read Full Blog Post(13)

History tells us that Democrats need to win big in Milwaukee County to get elected statewide. One of Tom Barrett’s challenges this fall will be doing that against a Republican with a winning history in Milwaukee County, Scott Walker.

How well does the mayor of Milwaukee have to do in the state’s biggest county to become the next governor?

If this pattern holds in November, there will be virtually no crossover voting in this contest. Only 4% of Democrats support the Republican Johnson and only 3% of Republicans support the Democrat Feingold. | Sept. 24, 2010»Read Full Blog Post(29)

When it comes to picking favorable venues, a struggling President Barack Obama could hardly do better than the University of Wisconsin campus in Madison, where he’ll hold a campaign rally Tuesday aimed at mobilizing young voters.

Obama’s 2008 victories in Madison over Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin primary and over John McCain in the general election were spectacularly one-sided.

In one voting ward next to the Library Mall where the president speaks Tuesday, Obama defeated fellow Democrat Clinton 87% to 12%. (Obama received 1,122 votes in Ward 45, Clinton 160.) | Sept. 27, 2010»Read Full Blog Post(41)

With President Barack Obama trying to rally young voters at the University of Wisconsin-Madison today, it’s worth looking back at the role young voters played in this state in the last midterm election four years ago.

Democrats are convinced that the campus vote in 2006 swung several legislative races their way in college towns around the state. Some Republicans agree, while others are skeptical.

Either way, there is pretty strong evidence that overall, turnout of young voters that year was stronger in Wisconsin than it was in most other states. | Sept. 28, 2010»Read Full Blog Post(60)

But the “late” primary is a fixture of Wisconsin politics, with sometimes big and unpredictable consequences, producing long and late intra-party primary fights and short, highly compressed general election campaigns.

It’s easy to forget in the frenzy of this campaign year that we’re seeing something exceedingly rare in Wisconsin. Despite our modern history as a presidential hotspot, midterm elections here haven’t offered much competition or suspense.

Not this time. Pick your adjective, but 2010 is the most hotly contested and consequential off-year election in Wisconsin in decades, with governor, U.S. senator, at least two U.S. House seats and both chambers of the Legislature in play. This sets Wisconsin apart not only from most other states this year but from its own past. | Sept. 30, 2010»Read Full Blog Post(7)

The Wisconsin Voter is a blog about elections, political trends and public opinion in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest. It is less about politicians than the people who elect them. It’s aimed at political junkies and general readers alike. Its subjects include:

The role this state and region play as electoral battlegrounds.

Voting patterns and trends at the local, state and regional level.

What makes voters here different from voters in other places.

Public opinion and the election climate.

Craig Gilbert is the Journal Sentinel's Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief and national political reporter.

Charting how each of Wisconsin’s 72 counties has trended politically compared to the U.S. as a whole over 60 years of presidential voting. Use the pull down menu to see charts for individual counties. Click here for an explanation of how the charts were done and how to read them.