Bet the Mortgage: Week 4, 2017

Yeah, last week was ugly. At least for Andy. His bets mirrored the weird nature of a week three filled with upsets. He suffered a huge loss after looking ok the first two weeks.

Tony, on the other hand, predicted a bad week and came through with a 3-1 week that fattened his bankroll like doughnuts add to his waistline. Judging by the table below and his lead in our Alternative Picks segment, he is far more in tune to what is going on right now than Andy.

Can he keep it going?

Here’s where we are at so far:

Last week

Last week $

Overall

Overall $

Bankroll

Tony

3-1

+ $1,568

7-4-1

+ $3,357

$13,357

Andy

1-3

– $2,940

5-7

– $2,169

$7,831

Tony:

$750 – Indianapolis (+13, -110) at Seattle – The site I use to grab odds has the final score of this game projected at Seattle 31.4, Indianapolis 11.7. Aside from the fact that I’m not sure how a team will score in decimals, we’re talking about a Seattle team that has scored 45 points all year, and is 0-3 against the spread. Yes, the Colts can cure many teams scoring droughts—but this is also a Colts team that has lost a game in overtime to the Cardinals and eked out a win against the Browns since inserting Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback. They have to prove something on the road, and I don’t think they’ll win, but giving them 13 points? Seems like a stretch.

$750 – Carolina (+9, -105) at New England – This bucks our recent trends of assuming the Patriots will blow out most of their opponents simply because Bill Belichick will run up the score because he’s just that kind of a guy—but here’s a hot take for you…in a season that many fans in the Northeast were talking undefeated season, these Patriots might just not be as good as past year’s teams. I mean, I’m not going to predict that they’re not going to run away with the AFC East—look at the competition—but they’re 1-2 against the spread at this point, and their defense ranks last in the NFL in points and yards allowed. Even this Panthers team should be able to move the ball against them.

$500 – New York Giants at Tampa Bay: Over 44 (-110) – I should probably see how I’m doing on the Over/Under bets this year at some point, but at some point you have to think that the Giants offense will explode for at least 20 points, and Tampa should be able to beat them.

$300 – San Francisco (+265 money line) over Arizona – Is there a team that’s more disappointing over the last 18 months than the Cardinals? This money line opened at +325, and has been sliding down ever since. San Francisco is terrible, but they’re not 0-16 terrible—hell, they’re 2-1 against the spread. I think they’ve got a decent shot to get off the schneid this week.

Andy:

Did you know that the word “schneid” is short for “schneider,” a term used in the card game Gin that means keeping your opponent from scoring any points? Learn more about that from this website here. So, that means not only are the 49ers going to get off the schneid, if you believe my brother, but I am going to get off the schneid, as well, both in our bets here and in our Alternative Picks post, which you can read here. On to more important matters:

$1,000 – Jacksonville (-3.5, +100) at NY Jets – Two or three times per year, the NFL has weeks that just go haywire, with upsets nearly across the board. Typically, the next few weeks after that, in my own unstudied opinion, the league goes back to chalk, with the better teams humbled by the realization they actually have to show up to win and with the worst teams going back into their holes. The Jaguars are young and improving. The Jets are boring and bad. Jacksonville wins this one, not by as much as they beat Baltimore by last week, but still comfortably.

$600 – Buffalo (+8, -110) at Atlanta – After last week I am going to get a bit more conservative with my bets for a bit. I’ll probably make one bigger one and then dial it down on the rest. I wouldn’t actually like this game, except for this: Between us, Tony and I are individual or as a team in at least four survivor pools and we took Atlanta this week. I think the Falcons are markedly better than Buffalo. But the Bills were game in a big win against Denver last week. So, it’s possible they aren’t as bad as I expect. Then there are the Falcons and their narrow escape against Detroit last weekend. Maybe they aren’t as good as expected. If those things hold true, giving eight to the Bills is ludicrous.

$750 – New Orleans vs Miami at London: Over 50 (-110) – The defenses here have given nobody any reason to fear. The Saints offense is as good as advertised. And against the Saints, even Miami should be able to produce a high enough number to bring this total over 50. May this be the week that Jay Cutler and Devante Parker hit off a fine romance.

$400 – San Francisco (+240 money line) at Arizona – Tony summed it up. I have very little to add. Larry Fitzgerald is still great, and the Cardinals have a couple solid d-backs, but overall this team is on the decline. The 49ers are not good, but they are plucky and they seem to be in the right direction with young Mr. Shanahan at the helm. They will knock off a couple teams they should not and I predict it starts this week. Ok, I guess I had a little to add.