NCAA Bowl Games Opening Line Report

Here is an early look at Sports Insights’ collegefootball betting trends for every NCAA Bowl game. Once these games get a little closer to kickoff, we will revisit the data to see how betting has affected the market, and discuss some possible line value and contrarian opportunities.

Team

Betting %

Current

Open

Notes

Temple

53%

-6.5

-6.5

The first bowl game of the year has split betting percentages which has caused no line movement thus far.

Wyoming

47%

6.5

6.5

Utah State

48%

-3

-3

Similar scenario for the second game of the bowl season.

Ohio

52%

3

3

UL Lafayette

23%

5

5

Early action is on San Diego State, but the money is not lopsided enough to move the line yet.

San Diego St

77%

-5

-5

Florida Intl

66%

-4.5

-4

2 out of 3 bets on FIU has moved the line 1/2 a point.

Marshall

34%

4.5

4

Lousiana Tech

11%

11

11

TCU is a big public favorite after
winning the Rose Bowl last season and upsetting Boise State earlier this season.

TCU

89%

-11

-11

Arizona St

15%

14

13

Speaking of Boise, public backing has caused the line to move to the key number of 14 against Arizona State who welcomes June Jones to the sidelines.

Boise State

85%

-14

-13

Nevada

16%

6

6.5

Some early reverse-line-movement
suggests there may be some value in taking Nevada on Christmas Eve.

Southern Mississippi

84%

-6

-6.5

North Carolina

17%

4

4

Both teams enter with 7-5 records, but
Mizzou enters as the favorite and the public is backing them early.

Missouri

83%

-4

-4

Western Michigan

29%

2.5

2.0

Public backing has moved the line from
2 to 2.5, but it will take a lot more backing to get the number to 3.

Purdue

71%

-2.5

-2.0

Louisville

62%

2.5

1.5

More money (but not more bets) coming
in on NC State has moved the line a full point.

NC State

38%

-2.5

-1.5

Toledo

74%

-3

-3

3 out of 4 bets have action on Toledo,
but it hasn’t moved the line off of 3.

Air Force

26%

3

3

California

36%

3

4

Texas’ disappointing season hasn’t
prevented most bettors from taking the Longhorns, but the line movement
suggests some sharp money on Cal.

Texas

64%

-3

-4

Notre Dame

41%

3

3

Both teams came into the season
overrated, but huge followings have this game as one of the most bet of the bowl season.

Florida State

59%

-3

-3

Washington

17%

9

9

Heisman favorite RG3 has public
bettors jumping all over Baylor as favorites, but the line is holding strong at 9.

Baylor

83%

-9

-9

Tulsa

29%

2.5

2.5

BYU is getting more public action, but
not many bets on this game, so the line hasn’t moved at all.

BYU

71%

-2.5

-2.5

Team

Betting %

Current

Open

Notes

Rutgers

39%

-2

-2

No line movement yet, but since the game is being played at Yankee Stadium, you can bet it will take well over 3 hours to finish.

Iowa State

61%

2

2

Wake Forest

10%

6.5

6.5

A whopping 90% is taking Mississippi State. The public loves taking SEC teams, as they have performed well in bowl games.

Mississippi State

90%

-6.5

-6.5

Iowa

47%

14

15.5

Big line movement in this game as some sharp money thinks Iowa can cover. The line has now settleed at the key number of 14.

Oklahoma

53%

-14

-15.5

Texas A&M

54%

-10

-9.5

Texas A&M has fired coach Mike Sherman, but is still a ten-point favorite over Northwestern.

Northwestern

46%

10

9.5

Utah

34%

3.5

3

2 out of 3 bets on Georgia Tech has moved the line 1/2 a point as most bettors think Utah will have a hard time defending the triple option.

Georgia Tech

66%

-3.5

-3

UCLA

27%

3

3

UCLA made the Pac-12 championship (only because Reggie Bush needed more houses) but bettors aren’t buying in. They would rather lay the 3 with Illinois.

Illinois

73%

-3

-3

Cincinnati

41%

2.5

3

The line has already moved off of 3, despite a majority of bets taking Vanderbilt as a small favorite.

Vanderbilt

59%

-2.5

-3

Virginia

22%

1.5

1

Another case where the public will gladly take an SEC team giving up a point or two.

Auburn

78%

-1.5

-1

Penn State

45%

5

6

Contrasting styles pit Case Keenum against scoring-challenged Penn State who is still dealing with a sex scandal.

Houston

55%

-5

-6

Michigan State

46%

3.5

3

Both teams made it to their conference championships and lost. Again, it looks like the money is on the SEC team and moved the line off of 3.

Georgia

54%

-3.5

-3

Nebraska

28%

1

1

See a theme trending? Public is taking another SEC team as Nebraska is coming off a disappointing first season in the Big Ten.

South Carolina

72%

-1

-1

Florida

35%

-2

-2

65% of bettors like the Buckeyes in the Urban Meyer bowl, who will be closely watching unless he wants to spend time with his family or has a health issue that day.

Ohio State

65%

2

2

Wisconsin

25%

6.5

5.5

The Rose Bowl is seeing heavy action on the Ducks and their prolific offense, although Todd Fuhrman of Caesar’s Palace expects some late money on Wisconsin.

Oregon

75%

-6.5

-5.5

Stanford

29%

3.5

3.5

The public expects Oklahoma State to be highly motivated after missing out on the BCS Championship game. They have no problem laying 3.5 against Andrew Luck and Stanford.

Oklahoma State

71%

-3.5

-3.5

Team

Betting %

Current

Open

Notes

Michigan

76%

-2.5

-2

Virginia Tech is coming off of an ugly loss to Clemson, and that image is fresh in the minds of bettors, who would rather bet Denard Robinson and the Wolverines.

Virginia Tech

24%

2.5

2

West Virginia

10%

3.5

3.5

One of the most lopsided betting percentages of the bowl season has Clemson taking down Big East Champion West Viriginia in this BCS Bowl (that is not a typo, this really is a BCS bowl).

Clemson

90%

-3.5

-3.5

Kansas State

30%

7.5

8

Kansas State has been a public favorite for most of the season so it will be interesting to see if people jump at the chance to take the Wildcats getting more than a touchdown.

Arkansas

70%

-7.5

-8

SMU

24%

5.5

6.5

Another example of reverse line movement as the line has moved toward SMU despite only receiving 24% of bets.

Pittsburgh

76%

-5.5

-6.5

Arkansas State

58%

-1

-1

Nearly a pick’em game as what turns out to be the appetizer to the BCS Championship main course.

Northern Illinois

42%

1

1

Alabama

35%

-1

1.5

Alabama is now a small favorite after some strong line movement in the early going. We will definitely monitor this game closely to see if there is some buyback on LSU.