The U.S.S.R.'s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 surprised most U.S.
Kremlin-watchers. So did Soviet inactivity during the recent war in
Lebanon. After Leonid Brezhnev's death two weeks ago, American
Kremlinologists were still suggesting the names of his potential
successors when Yuri Andropov was chosen.

To be sure, the inner workings of the Politburo have always been obscure
to outsiders, but the uncertainty about Andropov underscores the
current lack of American expertise on the Soviet Union. Even the
Central Intelligence Agency admits that it is having trouble providing
the kind of analysis needed...