4 Australian Institute of Criminology 2011 ISSN ISBN Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this publication may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Inquiries should be addressed to the publisher. Published by the Australian Institute of Criminology GPO Box 2944 Canberra ACT 2601 Tel: (02) Fax: (02) Website: Please note: minor revisions are occasionally made to publications after release. The online versions available on the AIC website will always include any revisions. Disclaimer: This research report does not necessarily reflect the policy position of the Australian Government. Edited and typeset by the Australian Institute of Criminology A full list of publications in the AIC Reports series can be found on the Australian Institute of Criminology website at

5 Foreword Cost-benefit analysis is one of a number of ways of measuring the impact and effectiveness of crime prevention programs and has been used by governments in Australia and elsewhere to determine the utility of a given program or intervention. In essence, cost-benefit analysis is an analytical tool that compares the total costs of an intervention or program against its total expected benefits; it assists in answering the question has the money been well spent?. Application of cost-benefit analysis within the criminal justice system and the crime prevention field is increasingly being embraced, although to date, most work has been undertaken in the United Kingdom and the United States. By comparison, relatively few cost-benefit analyses have been completed within Australia in these fields. In this report, a description is provided of when and how such analyses of crime prevention programs have been used and a number of cost-benefit analyses are reviewed, using a tool developed to assess the merit of cost-benefit analysis. It is noteworthy that a number of the programs that have shown a reduction in the risk of crime have not been developed by criminologists or law enforcement personnel, nor has crime prevention been the primary objective. Rather, a crime prevention effect has occurred as part of a suite of positive outcomes. For policymakers, cost-benefit analysis can be an important tool that informs policy decisions around program continuation, expansion or cessation. For practitioners, knowledge that programs are achieving their intended goals can assist program managers in future program development and may help to justify program expenditure. This report improves our understanding of the application of cost-benefit analysis and provides ways in which to make this important analytical tool more responsive and effective, which will help to ensure sustained investment in quality crime justice and crime prevention programs. Adam Tomison Director Foreword iii

9 Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis In recent years, policymakers have been increasingly influenced by cost-benefit analysis (CBA) when allocating resources to crime reduction and criminal justice programs. Public policy analysts have applied CBA for a number of years to assess environmental, social and economic projects. Although a small number of researchers applied CBA within the context of the criminal justice system and crime prevention field during the 1980s and 1990s, it has been increasingly embraced in the last decade (Aos 2002; Cohen 2000; Farrell, Bowers & Johnson 2005; McDougall et al. 2003). Locally, the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) has estimated that the cost of crime in Australia for 2005 was $35.8b (or 4.5% of national GDP; Rollings 2005), representing a substantial loss to the Australian economy. Given the difficulty of attaching a monetary figure to the lost productivity of those individuals committing the crime as well as their victims, and the intangible costs such as fear of crime, pain, suffering and lost quality of life, this figure is likely to be an underestimate. The substantial costs of crime and the limited resources available for crime prevention programs provides a compelling argument for a systematic approach for allocating scarce public resources among competing programs or policies on the basis of CBA. CBA is a tool that enables a comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of undertaking a particular program or policy as opposed to another course of action, including doing nothing at all, and applying monetary values to these advantages and disadvantages (Aos 2002). More specifically, CBA provides a tool for program analysts and policymakers to evaluate crime prevention and criminal justice programs from an economic perspective in order to guide decisions regarding whether to modify, expand or terminate projects (Dhiri & Brand 1999). Conducting a CBA has three main advantages: it controls for differences in currencies and comparative monetary value; it controls for differences in time periods; and it presents the single monetary benefits that were provided for each unit of input invested in the program (Welsh & Farrington 2001). Although, CBA is often (erroneously) used interchangeably with program evaluation, CBA does not determine if the project works (ie the program s success in achieving a specific outcome; Aos 2002), rather, it provides a quantification of expected costs and benefits. This report outlines what CBA is, and where and how it can be used. It further provides a systematic review of several CBAs that have been applied to criminal justice or crime prevention programs. Finally, the report provides a tool to assess the effectiveness of CBA in evaluating the program in monetary terms. Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis 1

10 Difference between cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis Although a number of approaches exist for evaluating programs in economic terms, two of the most commonly used techniques are cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and CBA (Dhiri & Brand 1999). The main difference between the two is that CEA considers only the costs as they are expressed in monetary terms, while CBA goes one step further to quantify the monetary benefits of the outcome (Cohen 2000). Cost-saving analysis and cost analysis are two other approaches used to analyse program costs and benefits (AIC 2003). Cost-effectiveness is expressed in terms of the inputs required to produce a certain outcome or output (Dhiri & Brand 1999). CEA compares different cost streams to produce a specific outcome or outcomes. The project that produces the preferred outcome, or set of outcomes, at the lowest cost is considered the most desirable. For example, if the objective is determining the cost per violent assault avoided (cost per outcome), the calculation of a CEA requires quantification of the cost and volume of inputs required to result in the identified outcome; in this case, the avoidance of one violent assault. For comparisons to occur between alternate programs and interventions, they must share a common outcome and the inputs must be measured on a common basis. CBA extends CEA by attaching monetary values to the outcomes of a program. After the cost of inputs and outcome benefits have been quantified in monetary terms, a comparison of alternate interventions can be made. The result is expressed in terms of a benefit/cost ratio which is calculated by dividing the monetary value of outcomes by the input costs. This ratio indicates the benefit received for every dollar contributed. For example, the benefit/ cost ratio of 1.35:1 for a burglary prevention program indicates that for every dollar spent on this program, $1.35 of benefits is received (eg by the avoidance of future burglaries). Net economic benefit is also calculated in a CBA by reducing the sum of benefits by the sum of input costs. The higher the costbenefit ratio and net economic benefit associated with the project, the more desirable the project. Two major types of CBA, ex-ante CBA and postante CBA have been identified to assist performance analysts and policymakers in resource allocation decision making (Chisholm 2000). Ex-ante CBA is conducted prior to the program s commencement and can assist governments in their costeffectiveness strategies and selection of competing programs. Post-ante CBA is conducted after a project has commenced and has a limited effect upon government decisions for future resource allocations as capital costs have already been expended. However, ex-ante CBA can provide greater information regarding the performance of a program and subsequent benefits can be more accurately determined to inform further investment or whether a similar program should be funded. The third approach, cost-saving analysis, is limited to the costs and benefits recognised by a program s funding organisation (which is often a government agency). Only the costs to the funding organisation are included and the benefits are expressed as dollars. This type of analysis is used to determine whether a program funded by the public pays for itself allowing a program to be justified in financial terms as well as on the basis of services provided (AIC 2003). The fourth approach to cost analysis involves no measurement of benefits, although it can be useful to decision makers when recognising factors that need to be taken into account for replicating a program elsewhere or for informing budget projections (AIC 2003). Application to crime prevention field The growing use of CBA in the criminal justice arena has been driven by the increased public demand for transparency and accountability of governmentfunded projects. Use of CBA has been facilitated by improved data availability and techniques for quantifying the benefits and cost of intervention programs (Cohen 2000). Because it has become increasingly necessary for crime reduction and social intervention programs to be defensible on financial grounds, CBA has been used to demonstrate the value of programs and to justify allocation of 2 Cost-benefit analysis and its application to crime prevention and criminal justice research

11 resources to these programs. As such, the use of CBA by crime prevention agencies has been a more proactive, rather than reactive, strategy. A commonly cited social intervention program that indirectly provided crime reduction benefits is the HighScope Perry Preschool program (commonly referred to as the Perry Preschool program). This program also included a rigorous CBA and the conclusion that for every dollar invested in early care and education, the study shows, the return to society is more than $16 (Schweinhart et al. 2005) has proven to be effective in communicating the cost-effectiveness of this prevention programs for policymakers. The Perry Preschool program was started in Michigan in 1962 and is one of the most commonly illustrated and rigorously evaluated CBA prevention programs. Perry Preschool was a program for preschool children and their parents who were living in poverty; it was designed to make significant life-course developmental gains in disadvantaged children. Of the $16 return for each dollar spent, $12.90 per dollar savings went directly to the public and the remaining $3.90 went to the program participant. One of the numerous benefits the study produced was a significant reduction in crime among study participants including a reduction in overall arrests for violent crimes, property crimes and drug crimes, as well as a reduction in subsequent prison or jail sentences over study participants lifetimes up to the age of 40 years. The crime-related effects, that is, the separate effects of criminal justice cases and victim costs that were avoided through this program s intervention, revealed a benefit-cost ratio to the public of $11.31:1 for every dollar spent on the program; society and potential victims were expected to save $11.31 in future avoidance costs (Schweinhart et al. 2005). Of the public return, assessed when participants were aged 40 years, 88 percent resulted from savings in crime-related costs. Another frequently cited prevention program, which has been the subject of CBA, is the Prenatal/Early Infancy Project, more generally known as the Elmira program. Treatment effects of the Elmira program, now known as the Nurse Family Partnership (NFP), have been examined during 30 years of program research (Olds 2008). This intervention program involved pre-natal and post-natal visits by nurses to economically disadvantaged first-time mothers, with the greatest benefit resulting from targeting high-risk families. Aos et al. (2004), as part of a meta-analysis of early intervention programs, conducted a CBA on the NFP intervention and demonstrated a cost saving to governments of $2.88 for every dollar spent in the form of reduced public assistance outcomes, criminality, child abuse and neglect, teen pregnancy, substance abuse and public assistance outcomes. Moreover, Greenwood et al. (1996) demonstrated a positive cost saving to governments of $4.00 for every dollar spent. The Elmira and Perry Preschool studies demonstrate that often the prevention of crime as a cost-benefit is but one of a number of outcomes that might be generated. Despite the significance of the outcome for the participants and its implication for the criminal justice sector and crime prevention, crime prevention may be a secondary objective for interventions that have been generated by non-criminal justice sectors such as health, welfare or early childhood development. When assessing CBAs in the criminal justice field, it is clear that there are substantial disparities in quality of assessment and it is therefore important that a proper assessment incorporate other forms of analysis, as they may provide some of the best support for crime reduction strategies. The UK Home Office required all programs funded by the Crime Reduction Programme to incorporate CEA to ensure adequate assessment of the initiatives seeking funding. Dhiri and Brand (1999) developed guidelines on behalf of the Home Office for the standardisation of CBA analyses and CEA to improve comparability between proposals. In addition, the Home Office encourages researchers to include information on costs and benefits in their evaluations and they provided guidance to support this practice (Legg & Powell 2000). Similarly, the Canadian Government, through Canada s National Crime Prevention Centre (NCPC), provides guidance on performing economic evaluations of crime prevention programs and provides a manual for evaluators (Hornick, Paetsch & Bertrand 2000; Welsh 2007). The Washington State Institute for Public Policy (WSIPP) has undertaken numerous CBA and systematic comparisons of crime prevention programs to inform policy decisions. The projects involve quantifying all tangible costs and benefits, and representing these from the perspective of both Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis 3

12 the taxpayer and the crime victim. The National Institute of Justice, within the US Department of Justice, has also emphasised their role in performing outcome and cost-benefit evaluations of criminal justice programs (National Institute of Justice 2008). Estimating the costs of crime and analyses of CBAs has also been undertaken by the New Zealand Ministry of Justice (MacCallum 1997) and the AIC (Chisholm 2000). Informing crime prevention policy Significant commitment exists across public service agencies to ensure best available evidence, knowledge and research are used to enhance the nature, distribution, effectiveness, efficiency and quality of public services (Nutley, Walter & Davies 2007). Evidence-based policy has been defined as a method that helps people make well informed decisions about policies, programmes and projects by putting the best available evidence from research at the heart of policy development and implementation (Davies 2004: 3). Evidence-informed policy has been implemented in the United Kingdom and in the United States, however, a critique of evidence-based policy is that research and other evidence can be used selectively to back an ideological argument and support a pre-existing plan (Nutley, Walter & Davies 2007). Nutley, Walter and Davies (2007) have noted that critiques regarding the use of research in policy are not generally about whether research has been used, but rather how it has been used. Despite the variable quality of CBAs, there is a growing demand by governments in developed countries to incorporate economic analyses into criminal justice funding proposals for consideration by policymakers (Swaray 2006). This is reflected in the Council of Australian Governments commitment and guidance for the use of CBA as part of a range of quantitative approaches to evaluate regulatory impact (COAG 2007). For example, the Australian Government Department of Finance and Deregulation has also highlighted the importance of an evidenced-based policy with all regulatory proposals made by the Australian Government and its agencies that are likely to have a regulatory impact on business or the not-for-profit sector requiring a Regulation Impact Statement (RIS; DoFR 2010: 8). An RIS includes a brief analysis of the proposed costs and benefits of each option, followed by a recommendation. Guidance has been provided for conducting more comprehensive CBAs to improve policy decisions, as well as allow postevaluation of a project or program, although application of this framework to rigorously assess criminal justice interventions has thus far been limited (DoFR representative personal communication April 2009). Although an expectation exists that policymakers will place significant weight upon program effectiveness and cost-efficiency when allocating taxpayer dollars among alternative programs, this is not always the case. Examples of this include the Scared Straight prison deterrence program implemented in the United States, which various studies have demonstrated had no effect upon crime generally (Finckenauer & Gavin 1999; Petrosino, Turpin- Petrosino & Finckenauer 2000) and promoted recidivism in some cases. An evaluation of the San Quentin Squires Program, another implemented scared straight program, found 81 percent of individuals who participated in the Scared Straight intervention program were arrested during the 12 month follow-up period compared with 67 percent of the control group (Lewis 1983). In addition, Aos et al. (2001) noted that individuals who had completed Scared Straight-type programs were, on average, 13 percent more likely to be arrested prior to the program s completion than juvenile offenders who had undertaken regular juvenile processing. Similarly, the widely implemented DARE program (Drug Abuse Resistance Education) aimed at reducing substance abuse and crime in school aged children in the United States has been demonstrated to have limited effect at best on later drug use and criminal behaviour (Ennett et al. 1994). Another example includes analyses of the Reducing Burglary Initiative (RBI) implemented in the United Kingdom by the Home Secretary to motivate burglary reduction activity in domestic premises in communities identified as most at risk. The RBI involved the funding of 247 crime reduction projects over a three year period. The program was assessed by a number of parties including Hamilton-Smith (2004) and Kodz and Pease (2003) on behalf of the Home Office, as well as Hope (2004) as an 4 Cost-benefit analysis and its application to crime prevention and criminal justice research

13 independent evaluator. Interestingly, the same study with identical data produced different conclusions and policy recommendations. Kodz and Pease (cited in Hamilton-Smith 2004) concluded the RBI produced a considerable quantity of crime reduction activity, estimating the net reduction in domestic burglary of more than 20 percent. According to Kodz and Pease (2003), 13 out of 20 projects were successful in domestic burglary reduction; while Hope (2004) reported only seven of the 20 projects achieved a significant impact on burglary in their target area after a re-analysis of the data. These seven also included one project that appeared to cause an increase in burglary in its targeted area. The primary difference between the evaluation methods was Hope (2004) incorporated a timeseries method to isolate the proportion of change resulting from the project, rather than other factors occurring at the same time. Hope (2004) raised concerns regarding evaluation of programs by the same people who initiated and managed the development of the project, due to the temptation to validate the project as a result of policy pressures. Steps in conducting a cost-benefit analysis Six main steps have been identified for the successful completion of an economic analysis (Barnett 1993) which are applied to CBA. These include: defining the scope of the analysis; obtaining estimates of program effects; quantifying the monetary costs and benefits; calculation of present value and assessment of profitability; identification of the distribution of costs and benefits; and testing the riskiness of the conclusions via a sensitivity analysis. Defining the scope Defining the scope of the analysis determines the viewpoint the economic analysis will take. The majority of criminal justice CBAs take the viewpoint of the government/taxpayer and potential victim of crime. The determination of the viewpoint is important for evaluation of the project, especially when the program is being funded by public money. If benefits and costs are assessed from the public s viewpoint then the benefits and the costs must be those that the public will either receive or pay (Welsh & Farrington 2000b). For a CBA to be completed, the fundamental question does the program work? needs to be answered. This requires estimating the likely outcome in the absence of the program and eliminating other external factors that could affect the program s outcome (Welsh & Farrington 2000b). Weimer and Friedman (1979: 264) advise that prior to conducting a CBA, the program s design should be either experimental or strong quasi-experimental design. For determining a program s effectiveness, the randomised experiment is the most persuasive method for measuring reductions in crime outcomes, given its high internal validity (Farrington 1983). The main feature of randomised experiments is that the experimental group and the control group are identical for all possible exogenous variables that would be expected to affect the outcome. Randomisation of individuals between control and experimental groups provides greater assurance that the observed effects were caused by the program (Farrington 2003). Random assignment of units to either control or experimental groups can only occur with sufficient sample size. In general, 50 units are required in each category for randomised experiments (Farrington 1997). Non-randomised experiments and experiments that only examine before and after outcomes provide less convincing evidence of program effects (Welsh & Farrington 2000a). However, it is also not always feasible to have a randomised sample in the real world, therefore, quasi-experimental with comparison group are more common. Random assignment of experimental participants may be impractical, unethical, or impossible leading researchers to adopt a quasi-experimental methodology. For example, a randomised experiment may not be possible due to ethical concerns whereby excluding one group from treatment may, in an extreme situation, cause death/ permanent damage. Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis 5

14 Figure 1 Steps for completing a cost-benefit analysis Define the scope of the analysis Establish the range of benefits to compare and identify the limits of the comparison. Obtain estimates of program effects (comparing control and treatment groups before and after) The benefits of a program are obtained from the effectiveness of the program. Estimate the monetary value of all costs and benefits The central tenet of any cost-benefit analysis is the estimation of the monetary value of program effects. Calculate the present value and assess profitability Account for inflation and the time value of money by discounting the stream of all costs and benefits over time using the social discount rate. Describe and incorporate the distribution of costs and benefits Although a positive net present value tells us that the program was profitable for society as a whole, it reveals nothing about who actually gains and loses. Conduct sensitivity analysis Estimating the costs and benefits of a crime prevention program relies upon certain assumptions, for example the effectiveness of the program and the cost of crime. Sensitivity analysis alters these assumptions and tests whether or not the program is still cost-beneficial. Source: Barnett Cost-benefit analysis and its application to crime prevention and criminal justice research

15 Determining benefits Estimating and assigning monetary values to the benefits arising from a program is commonly regarded as being the most difficult step of CBA. It is important to note that the terms cost and benefit are inversely related, in that the costs of a crime are the same as the benefits received from reduction of that crime. For benefits to be calculated, those who bear the cost of crime need to be identified. The costs and benefits of crime reduction accrue to different parties including crime victims, potential crime victims, taxpayers and government agencies (Cohen 2000). Cohen (2000) provides a comprehensive listing of the costs of crime and who bears these costs. Although the costs of crime incurred by society can never be completely incorporated due to all the tangible (concrete), intangible (less definable) and knock on effects that must be taken into consideration (Dhiri & Brand 1999), recent CBAs have endeavoured to go beyond the tangible costs of crime to incorporate intangible costs. One example of knock on or subsequent effects would be a program intervention aimed at reducing recidivism through the provision of drug treatment that also positively affects a participant s earning potential by facilitating access to a stable work environment, better relationships with family and friends and an improved housing situation. Tangible and intangible costs Costs incurred by the victim are classified into two broad categories tangible and intangible. Although tangible costs including medical fees, lost wages and police and prison expenditures are seemingly easy to quantify, this is not necessarily so. There is no standard accounting system that incorporates all the cost of crime to victims (Cohen 2000). The United States National Crime Victimization Survey conducted biannually by the Bureau of Justice, provides a good guide to a victim s out-of-pocket costs via responses to personal and household victimisation. This information is obtained by interviewing households in the United States and enquiring about costs relating to victimisations. While the survey provides a good guide, several methodological limitations result in underestimation of the tangible cost of crime. For example, the survey only enquires about the cost of victimisations in the past six months. Consequently, long-term costs such as medical expenses may be excluded. In addition, although mental health-related costs can account for a sizeable proportion of victimisation costs, they have historically been excluded from the survey (Cohen & Miller 1998), a trend which appears to have continued in the 2008 iteration (Groves & Cork 2008). Intangible costs include psychological and emotional costs, such as the cost of pain, suffering and lost quality of life resulting from the victimisation and are more subjective than tangible costs (Cohen et al. 2004). Intangible costs in early criminal justice CBAs were excluded due to the lack of data available to estimate these costs and initial resistance to their inclusion (Farrell, Bowers & Johnson 2005). Farrell, Bowers and Johnson (2005) demonstrate that although the monetary costs of a car theft may be quite high, the intangible costs are considered to be low and relatively short lived. Conversely, the intangible costs to the victim of sexual abuse are not only significant but also enduring. For example, higher rates in adulthood depression, anxiety, alcohol and drug abuse, eating disorders and post traumatic stress disorder have been reported (Mullen & Fleming 1998). Although it can be argued that placing a dollar figure on the intangible costs of violent crimes is cold and detached, the alternative of not recognising these costs is much worse. Intangible costs are legitimate costs to incorporate into CBAs in addition to the direct tangible costs incurred. In general, estimates of intangible costs are relatively conservative, with assessors likely to understate these costs (Wise et al. 2005). Although estimation of these costs can be difficult, a number of methods have been established to place monetary values on intangible losses. One of the earliest methods for estimating the intangible costs of individual crimes was based on the portion of jury awards compensating for pain, suffering and loss of quality of life (Cohen 1988; Miller, Cohen & Wiersema 1996). This approach was controversial because jury awards in the United States, for example, are perceived as unpredictable and unreasonably high, although it is argued jury awards become predictable when examined as part of a large sample (Cohen 2000). Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis 7

16 Another method of measuring the intangible costs of crime is the ex-ante concept of willingness to pay (WTP), also known as contingent valuation. WTP measures the amount individuals are prepared to pay to reduce the risk of crime. This can be a more appropriate measure than the ex-post concept of jury awards (Cohen 2000). WTP has been extensively used in environmental economics to value goods that do not have an available market (Cohen et al. 2004). One of the earliest examples of application of WTP to criminal justice was work by Cook and Ludwig (2000), who estimated individuals WTP for a prevention program to avoid gun violence. They found that in general, the aggregate amount individuals are willing to pay for reduced crime is greater than the compensation for pain and suffering contained within jury verdicts. Cohen et al. (2004) estimated individuals WTP to reduce a range of specific crimes was 1.5 to 10 times more than previous jury verdicts had estimated (Miller, Cohen & Weirsema 1996). Cook and Ludwig (2000) attributed the higher value to the individuals willingness to not only prevent crime victimisation to themself, but to others as well. Expenditure is also incurred by society as a whole to reduce or avoid potential future victimisations. Individuals take preventive action (eg catching a taxi after dark instead of walking home) and/or defensive actions (fitting burglar alarms) to reduce the likelihood of victimisation. Individuals also pay insurance premiums to limit the consequences of potential victimisations (Dhiri & Brand 1999). The burdens of crime preventive/defensive expenditure, as well as reduced quality of life, fall disproportionately on individuals who have experienced prior victimisation (Dhiri & Brand 1999). Taxpayers also bear a substantial portion of the costs of crime, through funding for: crime prevention programs; costs prior to conviction, including costs of police investigations; court/judicial costs; and corrective costs, such as prisons, rehabilitation and probation services. The prevention, or reduction, of crime results in savings to taxpayers as a whole, who would otherwise be paying for the progression of offenders through the criminal justice system. Society, in general, also benefits from crime reduction because members avoid being the victims of future crime. Some CBA also quantify the benefits from the offender s perspective, that is, improvement in career and life-course gains. They may asses the benefits to the offender s family of their family member avoiding future criminal behaviour, although this element is rarely included in the CBA (Aos 2002). Moreover, changes in an offender s non crimerelated benefits due to a crime program can also be important, though they may be less frequently measured. These measures can include improvements in an offender s education, employment, substance abuse, health, relationships and family factors. A comprehensive CBA will attempt to identify, measure and analyse these benefits in dollar terms. Although the majority of CBA have a relatively short-term follow-up period to observe the outcomes of the program, a more comprehensive analysis would include the long-term effects of the program, as many results may not be evident for a number of years. This focus on long-term effects is important as programs aimed at reducing/preventing crime can absorb substantial long-term economic resources, such as prisons, rehabilitation, probation services and detention facilities (Aos 2002). A long-term analysis allows different programs to be compared to ensure resources are best spent. Two areas of importance in situational crime prevention are displacement of crime and diffusion of benefits. Displacement refers to the unintended shift of crime to other locations, times or types in response to crime prevention strategies (Barr & Pease 1990). Reppetto (1974) distinguished six different types of displacement: temporal (change in time); tactical (change in method); target (change in victim); territorial (change in place); type of crime or functional (change in crime type); and perpetrator (apprehended offenders are replaced by new ones). Conversely, diffusion of benefits refers to the unintended reduction of crime in other areas or non-targeted types of crime following the 8 Cost-benefit analysis and its application to crime prevention and criminal justice research

17 preventative scheme (Clarke & Weisburd 1994). These two issues are important to integrate into the CBA to ensure all outcomes of the preventive action are measured. After the perspective has been established, the dollar value of the benefits is calculated. Clearly, taxpayers and crime victims benefit each time a criminal act is avoided, but by how much? The lack of standardisation in calculating the approximate gain each time a criminal act is avoided is a recurring problem in performing CBAs (Welsh & Farrington 2000b). The need for standardisation of unit monetary cost for different crime types is crucial for the comparison of alternative crime prevention programs. Miller, Cohen and Wiersema (1996) developed estimates of the costs of crime for different types of violent and property crime, incorporating property damage and loss, medical care, mental health care, victim and social services, productivity and police services. Intangible costs, such as pain, suffering and lost quality of life, were also included in the estimates. The Washington State Institute, a leader in CBA for criminal justice, uses estimates of per unit victim costs developed by Miller, Cohen and Wiersema (1996) to perform cost-benefit analyses. The Home Office (Dubourg, Hamed & Thorns 2005) has also developed victim cost per unit for a number of different crime types to be used in CBA. Determining costs This step involves estimating the cost to conduct the program. In undertaking CBA, analysts emphasise the importance of only including costs and benefits that vary with the decision being made (Cohen 2000). This requires an understanding of fixed costs versus marginal and average costs. Fixed costs do not vary with the volume of output, and are often referred to as sunk costs, as the costs will be incurred regardless of whether the program is implemented or not. For example, the annual expenses incurred to maintain a jail (ie depreciation of buildings, salaries for jail wardens) will be incurred regardless of the level of occupancy. However, once the prison reaches a certain capacity of inmates, the expenses might increase due to policy decisions resulting in prison expansion, additional employment of staff etc. Unless fixed costs change in relation to policy decisions, these costs should be put aside for the purpose of CBA. An important distinction needs to be made between marginal and average costs. Marginal (or variable) costs vary with each additional unit of output, that is, feeding an incarcerated individual, medical care etc, while average costs are calculated by dividing the total costs by the total volume in a certain period of time. Therefore, average costs include both fixed and marginal costs. Large-scale capital costs The inclusion of large-scale capital costs, such as acquiring asset or purchasing equipment, can affect the CBA. For example, the inclusion of (possibly) large-scale capital costs to calculate the economic efficiency of a program that is implemented for a relatively short period of time could result in the costs eclipsing the benefits received in this same timeframe. Welsh and Farrington (2000a) recommend spreading the capital costs over the life of the project to obtain a more accurate picture of the costs of the program. Although a simple solution to calculating the bottom line is to deduct the costs from the benefits, this could result in an incorrect conclusion as costs and benefits may be distributed unevenly over a number of years. Discounting value For future costs and benefits to be compared over time, these monetary amounts need to be discounted back to their present values (Dhiri & Brand 1999). For example, although the cost of a program aimed at reducing recidivism may be incurred now, benefits of lower recidivism, such as the reduced costs of processing these individuals through the criminal justice system, may continue to yield benefits for a number of years after the program has ended. If the project has funding commitments that will continue into the future these future costs must be adjusted in two stages to account for differences in the value of money over time. First, the discounting of future monetary benefits is required to account for the preference for immediacy and the time value of money. The time value of money describes the Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis 9

18 concept that one dollar today is worth more than one dollar tomorrow as you can invest the dollar today and earn interest on it (Gramlich 1990). Conversely, incurring a cost tomorrow is preferable to incurring the cost today. Second, the effects of inflation must be removed in order to translate nominal dollars from each year into dollars of equal purchasing power, or real dollars (Barnett 1993). After completion of the abovementioned steps, the total discounted present value of benefits, minus the total discounted present value of costs, is calculated to produce the assessment of net present value. The net present value is often used for comparison between alternative programs, in conjunction with the cost-benefit ratio. Sensitivity analysis The final stage of the CBA is testing the risks associated with the conclusions. Due to the uncertainty of many of the inputs and assumptions in a CBA, it is important to test how sensitive the conclusions are to changes in key inputs. One method for dealing with this uncertainty is to perform a sensitivity analysis, which is considered the most useful tool for representing risk. A sensitivity analysis varies assumptions and external influencing factors to consider alternative outcomes (Dhiri & Brand 1999). A sensitivity analysis, performed for CBAs incurring costs and receiving benefits over a number of years, can be used to compare outcomes by varying the discount rate. This is reasonable considering that evidence suggests the cost-benefit ratio can be more sensitive to changes occurring within the timeframe used to calculate returns and costs (Farrell, Bowers & Johnson 2005). Limitations of cost-benefit analysis Cohen (2000) has identified a number of issues that affect CBA. These include: the potential for misuse of CBA; uncertainty; treatment of future benefits and costs; issues of fairness and equity; and public perception of the risk of crime. Roman (2004) has also highlighted additional concerns including lack of a well-developed empirical method, magnification of small errors from sample size and selection effects, and/or the exclusion of critical information. The misuse of CBA can occur through carelessness, inexperience and/or deception. DiIulio (1996) has attributed the sometimes substantial disparity in the quality of criminal justice CBAs to the broad range of backgrounds of the practitioners who have entered the field. According to DiIulio (1996: 3), generally these individuals lack experience in quantitative and formal modelling skills to not only provide new ideas to the debate but also to provide analytically compelling answers to methodologically complicated questions on quantifying crime prevention and criminal justice. Cohen (2000) has noted the results of individual CBA can be criticised on the basis that although economic analyses are often perceived as objective and accurate, this can be misleading. Any particular CBA is only as accurate as the figures and assumptions it is based on. The assumption that $X spent results in $Y saved overlooks the subjectivity behind the calculations. Bias in what benefits are included in the analysis and the calculations behind these figures can impact on the analysis and may even turn a CBA from being economically unfavourable to favourable. Moreover, projections of long-term benefits based on intermediate outcomes will be subjective. For example, forecasting improved future employment prospects based on higher educational attainment as a result of program participation could result in significant overestimates or underestimates of program benefits due to small differences compounded over predicted years. The inclusion and estimation of intangible costs can have a substantial effect upon the results of the CBA and create difficulties in comparing alternative crime reduction programs. For this reason, identification of the assumptions and the valuation of these assumptions must be fully transparent to enable comparison between programs and improve the creditability of analyses. Considerable uncertainty can arise surrounding the costs and benefits of a program due to a reliance on certain assumptions. Frequently, implementation of the program will be based on an evaluation of a 10 Cost-benefit analysis and its application to crime prevention and criminal justice research

19 program which has already been implemented. However, differences between programs, such as demographic differences between the offending or treatment populations, the punishment or treatment protocols, program personnel and the time periods, can result in varying outcomes (Cohen 2000). A change to any one of these elements could affect the effectiveness or the cost of a program. Performing a sensitivity analysis, which varies the inputs used in the analysis to examine the impact of the variation on the outcomes, is one method for dealing with this uncertainty. Another hurdle to effectively comparing alternative programs arises when the benefits and costs of a program may not occur for a number of years. This is generally seen when an evaluated program has large upfront costs and small benefits incurred over a long time period of time. This can arise because of a lack of consensus regarding the discount rate applied. Cohen (2000) observed that the majority of criminal justice CBAs utilise a discount rate between two to three percent. Although the Home Office recommended a standard discount rate of six percent in 1999 and 2000 (Dhiri & Brand 1999; Legg & Powell 2000), this rate was revised to 3.5 percent in 2003 (HM Treasury 2003) and is 3.5 percent as at 2010 (HM Treasury 2010). The Office of Management and Budget (2009) in the United States periodically updates the discount rates for CEA. The revised discount rate, in 2009, ranges from 0.9 percent (3 year cash flow projection) to 2.7 percent for 30 year cash flows. In Australia, the Department of Finance and Deregulation publishes recommended discount rates to ensure consistency; currently recommending a discount rate of seven percent, with sensitivity analysis at three percent and 11 percent. The variation in discount rate can have significant impact on the outcomes of the CBA for long-term projects, as the higher the discount rate, the lower the present value of future cash flows. However, as programs usually incur costs and benefits in time periods close together and fiscal assessments of programs are primarily evaluated over a short period of time, the effect of discount rates is, in a practical context, minimal. CBA can also reflect social inequities. Cohen (2000) highlights this issue through the following example. If a program evaluator is measuring the loss of wages for a crime victim and these crime victims earn below average income, the benefits of the program will be estimated downwards based on a lower income. In addition, an individual s WTP for a program to reduce crime would be dependent on the individual s wealth. Therefore, to avoid discriminating against poorer victims, the analyst needs to quantify the costs and benefits from the perspective of the typical person, rather than from the perspective of a specific crime victim (Cohen 2000). A discrepancy can exist between the public s perception of the likelihood of crime victimisation and the actual risk of victimisation. This is particularly apparent in data examining the public s concern of growing crime amidst declining crime rates (Cohen 2000). This discrepancy can affect the individual s WTP, resulting in the individual being prepared to pay a much higher amount to reduce perceived victimisation of crime than if they were aware of the true likelihood of being a crime victim. Cohen et al. (2004) argues WTP incorporates fear of crime and public wellbeing based on actual levels of fear and concern, thus measuring the actual amounts individuals would be willing to pay to reduce these perceived risks. Welsh and Farrington (1999), after conducting an extensive analysis of the application of CBA in the criminal justice field, concluded that the quality of empirical CBAs varied widely. Roman and Farrell (2002) suggested four explanations for the lack of empirical CBAs conducted. First, rigorous quantitative research into crime prevention is relatively new. Second, many policymakers and researchers believe that if the program has effective and positive outcomes, the benefits outweigh the costs, no matter what the cost. Third, it can be expensive and time consuming to complete a comprehensive CBA. Finally, even the most comprehensive CBA can often be picked apart due to necessary assumptions, resulting in researchers reluctance to undergo CBA. It has also been suggested that few have the skills to complete a comprehensive CBA. Introduction and overview of cost-benefit analysis 11

20 Evaluation of cost-benefit analysis This section will briefly summarise a number of approaches to reviewing the efficacy of research findings, including findings from CBAs. These approaches include: meta-analyses; the Campbell Collaboration; the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale; and evidence rating system. Next, a systematic review of a selection of relevant CBA case studies from both Australia and overseas will be undertaken (with summaries of these case studies provided in Appendix A). The purpose of a systematic review is to use rigorous methods for searching, evaluating and integrating evidence from prior evaluation studies into an unbiased and comprehensive review (Farrington, Petrosino & Welsh 2001). An commonly cited example of a comprehensive systematic review is Welsh and Farrington s (2002) review of implementation of closed circuit television (CCTV) programs on crime reduction in the United Kingdom. This review combined 22 studies and concluded that the implementation of CCTV was most effective in reducing car theft in car parks. This systematic analysis provided policymakers with valuable information regarding the implementation of CCTV for crime reduction. A meta-analysis involves quantitative or statistical analysis of the outcomes of completed research studies (Lipsey & Wilson 2001). As a meta-analysis involves the statistical review of research studies, this approach may not be appropriate if only a small number of studies are being evaluated, the type of studies differ substantially and for studies that differ in units of analysis (Welsh & Farrington 2005). The Cochrane Collaboration is an international organisation that prepares, maintains and disseminates systematic reviews on the effectiveness of alternative healthcare interventions. Systematic reviews produced by the Cochrane Collaboration follow a standard structure to ensure consistency between the different reviews and are highly regarded for their systematic analyses of medical testing. The Campbell Collaboration has implemented a similar structure for conducting systematic reviews in education, crime and justice, and social welfare and is considered at the forefront of systematic reviews in the criminal justice field (Welsh & Farrington 2005). The Campbell Collaboration appointed a crime and justice steering committee (CJSC) in 2000 to oversee the preparation, maintenance and distribution of systematic reviews in research on the effectiveness of criminal justice interventions to prevent or reduce crime (Farrington, Petrosino & Welsh 2001). The framework developed by the Campbell Collaboration in addition to that developed by Welsh and Farrington (1999) and Perry 12 Cost-benefit analysis and its application to crime prevention and criminal justice research

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