It
will be the second time a leader from a Persian Gulf country will be
attending the Republic Day parade after king of Saudi Arabia in 2006.

The momentum of cooperation between
India and United Arab Emirates has accelerated over the last few years and the
two countries are seeking to elevate the bilateral relationship to higher
levels.

Factoid to reflect the India - UAE relations !

1)
$50 billion

That
is the bilateral trade between India and the UAE. The growth of trade has been
very impressive over the years. The trade figure was mere $128 million, 30
years ago. The Gulf nation is India’s third biggest trading partner after the
USA and China. India and the UAE now want to double that figure.

2)
2.8 million passport holders

That
is the number of Indian passport holders in that country. They are the biggest
expatriate community in the UAE which proudly proclaims of being home to ‘200
nationalities”. The total remittance from the UAE is estimated to be $13.6 billion.

3)
$10 billion

That
is the total investment the UAE has made in India. Out of this, $4 billion is
in the form of the foreign direct investment. In the last 11 months, the UAE
has pumped in one billion dollars in FDI.

4)
$75 billion

This
is the money the UAE promised to pump into India’s infrastructure development
from its sovereign wealth fund.

The UAE’s big
sovereign wealth funds, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadla-IPIC want
to make India their next big destination. Can India make it worth their
while?

Impediments
and challenges Modi Government will have to tackle !

India has a poor
history here – the road is strewn with the debris of Etisalat, Emaar and DB World, all of whom bear the
scars of previous forays into India.

So the Modi
government has a tougher job making them second time lucky.

Talking to
senior ministers in the UAE in the past days, it is clear they want to go
into India.

But the maze of
central and state regulations, land acquisition, unpredictability in tax
regimes keeps them up at night. China’s already ahead of India here, no
surprise.

Why does India requires UAE more rather than the other
way round >?

India frankly,
needs the UAE more than the other way round. A large market is less
important than where the market is headed – high-tech manufacturing,
creative industries, innovation pods, not merely consumers.

The UAE
recognised this ages ago and is investing massively in the future. All you
have to do is sit in a driverless pod in
Masdar City to get to your destination and see the possibilities of a
future where you can store solar energy in batteries not yet invented, or
build zero carbon homes for future families.

That ought to be
our future, we need partners who have already started on this journey. The
Saudis only plan to diversify from oil. Dubai’s revenues have already
whittled down to only 5% oil, Abu Dhabi is down to the low 60s.

Looking beyond PAKISTAN !

It’s important
for both India and the UAE to look beyond Pakistan. With 8 million Indians
living and working, making tons of money, innovating, creating, and most
important, peaceful, it’s inevitable that these countries will compare
them to the crime-ridden Pakistanis and come to the only logical
conclusion.

The UAE too
needs to wean itself away from Pakistan’s terror syndicates all of whom
had/have huge business interests in Dubai and Abu Dhabi –read Dawood Ibrahim,
and a slew of other smaller ones. Senior officials in the UAE swear they
have begun. Slow steps, but in the past three years, there have been no
high level Pakistani official visits to the UAE.

How has been the affair between UAE and Pakistan
recently?

Over the
decades, the UAE has traditionally been close to Pakistan — one reason for
this has been the lack of effort on the part of successive Governments in
New Delhi to develop bonds with the Gulf.

So, while
Pakistan-based militants have been causing terrorism in India since long,
there had been no strong words of condemnation from the UAE.

However, with
the new-found warmth, the UAE has been quick to not just condemn the
terror attacks in India but also back India's response (it supported India's surgical strike inside
Pakistan-occupied Kashmir following the terror attack by Pakistan-based
militants at an Indian Army camp in Uri in Jammu & Kashmir)
late last year.

Support to US
drones targeting terrorists (and unfortunately, many civilians) in
Pakistan was an early indication of Abu Dhabi’s lack of faith in
Islamabad’s ability to crack down on terrorism.

The killing of five UAE diplomats in Kandahar by what
appears to be a joint operation between the Haqqani network and Pakistan’s
friendly neighbourhood ISI has stunned this state.

They supported
the Taliban, and even today hesitate to criticise them. But they can’t
wrap their heads around the fact that Sirajuddin Haqqani is also the top
gun of the Taliban today.

It brings them
uncomfortably close to their other big fear – of being overwhelmed by
Daesh or whatever is its successor.

Abu Dhabi did
not take Islamabad’s refusal to join the battle in Yemen well.

Role of India in West Asia in near future ?

India
itself is looking at playing a greater security role in this region, and
therefore defence and security cooperation with the UAE is big.

The Gulf Arabs
are simultaneously looking at a less-interested US, more belligerent Iran
and terrorism challenges that could upend their carefully built economic
marvel.

That’s where
India should come in. Indian initiatives in Yemen and Iraq have displayed
Indian capabilities, India now has the space to grow its security
footprint further.

Where does India score over China ?

China is bigger, more efficient, a bigger market. Why then do the
Gulf Arabs look at India?

First,
history.

Second, China’s
close relations with Iran and Pakistan.

Third, China’s
strategic rival, US, is India’s strategic ally. It makes a world of
difference.