There
is something missing from this thing we are calling a recovery. For most in the
US it does not feel like a recovery, and for good reason: the jobs aren’t
there. But for some groups it is a recovery, and more. And that reveals an even
bigger problem. Today, in a summer-shortened Thoughts from the Frontline, we
look at the trends in employment as well as take note of a signpost we passed
on the way to finding out that we can’t pay for all the future entitlements we
have been promised. It’s a short letter but hopefully thought-provoking. At the
end, I note a webinar and a few speeches I’ll be giving in the near future.

Last
spring, I mentioned I was working on a book on employment with Bill Dunkelberg,
the Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Businesses. We
were hoping to get it out by this fall. In the process of researching the
topic, I began to see some new patterns in the employment trends that suggest
we may be going through a generational transformation, led by both demographics
and technology. And while it is ultimately positive, the transition will be
harder on some groups than others. In the next few months we will take some
time to explore these new trends, but let me quickly lay out a few areas for
discussion.

First,
we may be going through a technological shift in employment not unlike that in the
Industrial Revolution. My discussions recently with Dr. Woody Brock give us
some insight. In 1850 the largest group of workers in the US were on farms. By
1900 the largest group was domestic workers. (Data suggest that Great Britain
had twice as many domestic workers per household as the US in 1900, and Germany
some 50% more.)

“The number of people in paid
domestic work increased dramatically throughout the late 19th century in most
European countries. The United States experienced a similar situation, which
continued into the early 1900s and was largely due to the growing number of
middle- and upper-class families that wanted and could afford household help.
The arrival of a great many unskilled immigrants who could find no other form
of employment contributed this growth.” (Britannica online)

By 1870, one in five Chicago
households employed domestic workers, who accounted for 60 percent of the
city's wage-earning women. Over the next half century, domestic service
represented the leading occupation of women in Chicago and the nation.

What caused the shift from
farming? It was partly technology-driven. Farming became far more productive
with the introduction and improvement of the McCormick reaper, new plough
designs, etc., along with the spread of railroads to bring the increased bounty
to cities quickly and cheaply.

As the prices of agricultural
goods dropped, smaller farms became less profitable and labor moved from the
country to the city. Men generally became laborers, and women migrated to
domestic work. In 1900, there were few labor-saving devices. Food had to be prepared
from scratch daily. Doing the cooking, cleaning, laundry, sewing, child care, etc.
made for a very full day. The growing middle class in Europe and the US
employed domestic help.

A person with a college
education clearly has an advantage over those with only a high school diploma
or less, but it is no guarantee of security. The Georgetown Center on Education
and the Workforce published a study last week highlighting the problems.

But
that graph only tells part of the story. “As the Washington Post's Dylan
Matthews has pointed out, the Georgetown report misleadingly sandwiches
together plain-old bachelor's degree holders with workers who have a master's,
doctorate, or professional degree. And according to data Matthews cites from
the Economic Policy Institute, between 2007 and 2011, 98.3 percent of the job
gains in that combined group went to the advanced degree holders. These days,
it seems we're really in a grad school economy.” (The
Atlantic)

What
we see is that a college degree is simply not the ticket it was when I was
young. In today’s (Saturday) New York Times,
they quote the Associated Press:

“About 1.5 million, or 53.6
percent, of bachelor’s degree-holders under the age of 25 last year were
jobless or underemployed, the highest share in at least 11 years. In 2000, the
share was at a low of 41 percent, before the dot-com bust erased job gains for
college graduates in the telecommunications and IT fields.

“Broken down by occupation,
young college graduates were heavily represented in jobs that require a high
school diploma or less.

“In the last year, they were
more likely to be employed as waiters, waitresses, bartenders and food-service
helpers than as engineers, physicists, chemists and mathematicians combined
(100,000 versus 90,000). There were more working in office-related jobs such as
receptionist or payroll clerk than in all computer professional jobs (163,000
versus 100,000). More also were employed as cashiers, retail clerks and
customer representatives than engineers (125,000 versus 80,000).

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“According to government
projections released last month, only three of the 30 occupations with the
largest projected number of job openings by 2020 will require a bachelor’s
degree or higher to fill the position — teachers, college professors and
accountants. Most job openings are in professions such as retail sales, fast
food and truck driving, jobs which aren’t easily replaced by computers.”

I
was talking with my youngest son, Trey, yesterday. I gave him my “old” car last
year, which now has about 90,000 miles on it. He said he needs to have his
spark system replaced. That launched me onto a nostalgic trip, telling him
about how we used to replace spark plugs when I was a kid. I explained what a
gapping tool was and then went on to detail the rest of the topic. After about
five minutes, he remarked that it must have been expensive to have this done. “No,”
I said, “we learned to do it ourselves. Everyone could. It was just part of the
ritual of getting a car and growing up. Your grandpa helped me the first few
times, and then I was on my own.”

Today,
I could no more help Trey learn how to replace whatever they have in his car
that is an ignition system, assuming I could even find it, than I could figure
out how to fix my computer.

When
I was young, a car with 90,000 miles on it was getting quite old, and things had
to be constantly fixed or replaced. Today, 90,000 miles is just getting
started. Cars don’t wear out like they used to.

And
apparently the same can be said for the Baby Boomer generation. In the past, as
you approached 65 you began to think about retiring. Today, not as many people
are ready to “hang up their spurs.”

The
next chart is from the St. Louis Fed FRED database. The blue line is the
employment level of those 55 years of age and older (scale on the left), and
the red line is the employment level of all workers (scale on the right.

Note
that the number of employed 55 and over has risen more or less steadily since
before the beginning of the Great Recession, growing by over 4 million, while the
number of jobs for all workers has dropped by 8 million and is still down by
over 4 million.

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Since
the end of the recession, the number of jobs has grown by less than 3 million,
all of which have been gained by those in the 55 year and older category! And
then some: Boomers have taken “market share” from those who are younger.

The
“deal” with previous older generations was that they would retire and move on,
making way for the next generation. Boomers are breaking that deal. Not only
are we working longer, but we intend to keep on working as long as we jolly
well feel like it, and then live on to a ripe old age and collect all those retirement
benefits. I will be 63 in a month or so and have no intention of slowing down.
And few of my peers are thinking of what retirement looks like, either.

While
the unemployment rate is fairly low and even for those 35 and older, younger
workers are suffering more, and that partially explains the underemployment
noted above. As I remember, when I was in my early 20s, you took the job you
could get and then looked around for something better. But the bills got paid.

Just
as employment went from the farm to the city, it now seems to be undergoing a
new transition. I told my kids they needed to get a college education. As it
turns out, I misled them. While a college education is important, they also now
need a skill that an employer wants; a degree is not enough. And that is one of
the reasons why Boomers, who have had the time to develop the skills, are
taking job-market share.

We
will go into all this deeper in later letters; but before we close, let me
briefly note that Mish Shedlock pointed out in his gonzo blog a few weeks ago
that:

As of 2012-06 the civilian labor force was 155,163,000.

As of 2012-06 there were 111,145,000 in the private
workforce.

As of 2012-06 there were 56,174,538 collecting some
form of SS or disability benefit.

The ratio of SS beneficiaries to private employees has
thus passed the 50% mark (50.54%).

Think about that a minute. There are now half as many people
getting some kind of Social Security benefit as there are workers in private
employment paying into Social Security. And the trend is clearly advancing.
This cannot be sustained. And solving the Social Security problem is the “easy”
part of the budget debate. Health care is far more difficult.

We read that one in eight families is now getting food
stamps and that over 50% of US families get some form of government check each
month, while the percentage of workers in the private workforce is shrinking.
There is a limit to how much you can take from out of the private sector and
still have a growing sector to take something from. But that is a topic for a
later letter.

I will be doing an inaugural “Fireside
Chat” with Barry Ritholtz on Tuesday, September 11 at 1 PM Eastern. This
webinar will be hosted by my friends at Altegris Investments and will be
available to accredited investors and financial professionals. If you have
already registered with the Mauldin Circle (and are in the US), you will
shortly be receiving an invitation to attend. If you have not, I invite you to
go to www.mauldincircle.com and register
today, so you can hear Barry and me discuss the latest news and, of course,
touch on the election and what it means for investors.

I
will be in Chicago on September 19, presenting at the RDA Financial Network
Investor Forum, from 6:00 to 7:30 PM. The Forum will be held at the Chicago
Marriott Oak Brook. This event is sponsored by Steve Blumenthal and my
friends at CMG. (And congratulations, Steve, on your marriage last month!) If
you would like to attend please email Linda Cianci at Linda@cmgwealth.com.

I
will be speaking at the Casey Investment Summit in Carlsbad, California on
September 7-9 and then in Palo Alto Sept. 12-13, at an investment conference
again sponsored by Altegris Investments.

It
is time to hit the send button. I am a little under the weather tonight, but
deadlines are deadlines, so I write on. But I do see a lazy weekend in front of
me, with friends, good food, and great conversation. And I hope you’re enjoying
your summer, too!

Options

Discuss This

Comments

Alan Harris

Aug. 31, 2012, 12:58 p.m.

I gave up the computing business 25yrs ago to become a plumber. Best move I ever made. I LOVE my job, it pays well and challenges me every day (plus I save a fortune on my own house maintenance !) It makes me feel like a super hero ” Stand back ma’am….leave that vicious leak to me!! Oh youre my hero (my husbands totally useless at this stuff, not a REAL man like you…..do take this money, she says and smiles warmly as I gallop off to save the next damsel in distress.
No impromptu meetings or working late (unless I choose,... at double rates of course. No co-worker issues or office politics (just parking tickets).
My fondest memories of my father are from our time in the garage changing the brake pads or whatever. It was shared time with a practical, challenging, team work and family bonding purpose. Is there a better, more life enhancing education than that?

Bill Hacke

Aug. 31, 2012, 6:07 a.m.

From the article:
As of 2012-06 the civilian labor force was 155,163,000.
As of 2012-06 there were 111,145,000 in the private workforce.

What is the definition of civilian labor force and private workforce ?
Is the difference the people employed by the government ?

Jason Badger

Aug. 30, 2012, 2:51 p.m.

Mr. Mauldin, I wonder if you are familiar with MMT, and its implications as regards Social Security; please refer to http://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/powerpoints/7DIF.pdf

If so, please comment on same.

Frank P Casula

Aug. 28, 2012, 11:20 p.m.

The question becomes for economists, and fiscal policy creators is can we build a model, considering where we are now which is ‘not’ based on growth.

Growth is something that we took for granted for generations. Now that the population of the planet is reaching tipping points and will likely slow and/or shrink visa vie population: G20 Economies which have build their foundations on growth, have no plan B. We live on a ball. The ball is not going to get any bigger and it’s not reasonable to consider that it will. Populations will wax and wane in long shifts. This is one of those and will likely take 50 - 1oo years to walk through.

What if we shifted to a model which did not rely on growth. What does that model look like and what taxation and fiscal policy model works to de-leverage debt (the current mess), maintain the generational shift which is inevitable, and sustain a level of infra structure, security, and standard of living.

That’s my challenge: It’s fine to look at the possible outcomes our history introduces. That’s an intellectual protraction and can provide valuable lessons. But the real question John is: What is the vision to re engineer the economies of the great nations on the planet, to support the shift and keep the ball moving forward not backward. Is there such a model. If not; Let’s invent one….we need it now!

Stuart Harnden

Aug. 28, 2012, 11:09 p.m.

I have to take issue with John, in a nice way, that boomers are breaking the deal. It’s the U.S. Government who has broken the deal. They have raided the Social Security Trust Fund so that it’s nothing but a cabinet full of I.O.U.‘s, and Congress has for decades, refused to address the issue and make the required changes. The government caused the financial bust in housing, and the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve have meddled to the point that there is no recovery, and with zero interest rates, retirees who have saved diligently, paid off their own mortgages, put their kids through school, etc., are left with two big assets that are producing no income (housing and savings). The government, going back to the late 80’s and early 90’s, has continuously fudged the methodology and numbers for figuring inflation, after spending decades indexing everything that moved to inflation, and now can’t pay any kind of cost of living raises, so retirees not only don’t get ahead or stay even, we’re falling backwards.

Boomers have no more desire to stay in the work force than the unemployed taking home $800 a week do. They’re doing it because they have to, and to some degree, because the younger generation refuses to. Forty years of due diligence and planning has for many, been neutralized by those in government.

Stuart Harnden, Bedford, New Hampshire

Candice Donahue

Aug. 28, 2012, 10:30 p.m.

Interesting twist on the younger people coming out of college with technical degrees. My nephew is majoring in petroleum engineering, a field my father was in. Back in the day, you learned and got more valuable as an employee by spending years in the field getting experience. Now it seems, due to the pervasive use of technology to discover oil and gas reservoirs and monitor the direction of the drilling and the chemical composition of the drilling fluid, that the brand new recruits are getting opportunities you’d think would be resrved for the 40-60 year old employees. So it really depends on the industry. Computers and immediate access to data and information has really leveled the playing field among workers of different ages/generations.

Medea Bern

Aug. 27, 2012, 6:17 p.m.

College is in large measure remedial. That explains the need for grad school. Mechanics make $130 an hour-no more changing your own points and plugs, yet high schools have little or no vocational training for the kids who could perform these useful and much-needed tasks. Society is bass-ackward in its insistence that a college education is necessary to sustain a family-my mechanic is doing just fine, thank you, and rather than having hundreds or thousands of kids wasting time at community college learning math-again-we should be investing in vocational training. We could use all the dollars we’ve been funneling to U of Phoenix and DeVry. Just saying…

Mark Behringer

Aug. 27, 2012, 2:25 p.m.

Thanks John,

Unlike most of what comes into my Inbox, your articles always give me something solid to think about. This one was no exception.

Jerome Barry

Aug. 27, 2012, 1:24 p.m.

This is valuable information which leaves out half the options. It isn’t Post-Graduate Professional Degrees OR Unemployment and Poverty, but rather Valuable Skills-Knowledge OR Unemployment and Poverty.

A 22-year old welder in the widely dispersed fracking areas of the country earns as much as 50-year-old engineer in the high-tech industries.
The problem is, the highly skilled workers in the oil patch are predominantly the 50+ year-olds who’ve feasted in every boom and famined in every bust since Carter. Just as the old machinists at John Deere and other heavy industries, the old roughnecks in the oil patch, and the old engineers filling the semiconductor shops where I am, these employers who need the most highly skilled workers simply don’t believe they can find worthy apprentices among the Tweeting youth of America today.

Outta Names999

Aug. 27, 2012, 12:54 a.m.

Mauldin, you’re starting to catch on. But stop blaming the boomers. It does no good to blame them. We’re not going anywhere. It’s the money supply. What we need is more cash in the economy because the baby boomers aren’t ready to retire and yet their children are ready to enter the work force to the tune of 3 to 4 million a year. There simply isn’t enough money in the economy to pay both generations. Assume half the kids graduate from college. That’s 1.5 million per year who will need to be paid say 40k with an actual cost with overhead of about double that. That’s 120 billion a year - every year for 17 years. About $2 trillion just to get them employed in their first job after college. The same thing happened in the 70’s when the boomers entered the work force and the Vietnam War ended. So ti can be done.

Where do we go to get the money? Well either the corporations can hire everybody or we go to war. Two wars. Now of course we already just fought two wars but the fact is, we faced the wrong opponents. We should have declared war on our friends, not our enemies. Iraq doesn’t have enough oil. We should have conquered our friends the Saudis instead because they have all the oil. There isn’t enough money in Afghanistan to piss in a pot. Instead, we should have waged war against our friends the British because they have all the gold.

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