Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Let Normalization Pave the Way to Peace

It’s no secret at this stage that
Saudi Arabia is trying to court Israel as part of its ongoing efforts to
contain the perceived Iranian threat in the region, especially in the aftermath
of the signing of the Iran Deal and the current American efforts aiming at
“disengaging” from the region or, at the very least, minimizing America’s
military footprint there.

But there’s courting and there’s
courting. And Saudi courting, at least for now, doesn’t involve treating Israel
like a normal state and is unlikely, therefore, to prove effective. As a recent
statement by former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to Washington Turki
Al-Faisal makes clear, the Saudis continue to hold on to the belief that Israel
needs to accept the Arab Peace Initiative in order for normalization to
begin. The statement was made at a
rare joint public appearance by a Saudi official alongside an
Israeli, IDF Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror. The Times of
Israel reports:

“I can’t
understand why the Netanyahu government doesn’t seek to grab that offer that
was presented in 2002 and work with not just the US, but with the Arab world in
establishing peace,” al-Faisal said at the gathering, hosted by the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy. “There is no requirement for divine revelation
or Einsteinian genius to know what peace is—two states, mutual swaps, mutual
recognition, and engaging with each other.”

While Mr. Al-Faisal’s bafflement
seems quite genuine and is, in my judgment, justified to a considerable degree,
it nonetheless represents an outdated reading of the current
situation.

The problems surrounding the
prospects of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks at this stage cannot be easily
reduced to Netanyahu’s government’s unreasonable, if not downright belligerent,
attitude. There are problems on the Palestinian side as well: deep divisions
along ideological and personality lines pitting the Palestinian Authority (PA)
against Hamas, and various figures within the PA against each other; the
calcification of corrupt PA rule in the West Bank; and the continuing rule of
Hamas violence in Gaza.

At such, insistence on the Arab
Peace Initiative at this stage is a non-starter. Netanyahu is not interested in
symbolic gestures, and the Palestinian side is simply too divided and
leaderless to enter into a meaningful agreement of the type that Al-Faisal
envisions. Moreover, and considering what’s at stake—namely, containment
of the Iranian threat—Iran will likely try to do something to derail any talks,
and intra-Palestinian conflicts can be siezed upon for this purpose.

What all this means is that Saudi
Arabia, among other Arab states, needs to reexamine its approach. In fact, what
is probably needed at this stage is to flip the formula: it’s not peace that
should pave the way to normalization but the other way around: normalization
could pave the way to peace.

Instead of hiding a working
relationship with Israel in the shadows, improved open diplomatic and economic
relations between Israel and Arab countries could go a long way in improving
the lives of Palestinians in the Occupied Territories. That could have a
positive influence on political talks and may strengthen Palestinian governance
and government institutions. Since the linkage between normalization and final
status talks would no longer be there, the combination of open relations and
improved living conditions could create the political opportunity for the
long-awaited, historic agreement to happen.

Meanwhile, the Israelis, the
Saudis and other Gulf Arabs, the Turks and the Egyptians can also talk about a
security arrangement for the region. The reality of normalization, rather than
the vague promise of it, could allow talks in this regard to acquire the
serious edge they need, and could produce something credible within a
reasonable period. Initially, this would be an open bloc against Iran which
would not be invited to take part in this initial phase. That said, a seat
at the table would be left for her provided her leaders moderate their regional
behavior by allowing for reasonable compromises to be reached in places like
Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

To the extent that Russia has now
become a regional power through its de facto expanded presence in Syria, the
same consideration might be reserved for its leaders as well, very much on the
same condition. Israel and the Sunni states have a great interest in common:
regional stability. That interest would be far easier to pursue were relations
between them open.

What’s clearly at stake at this
stage is the future of the entire region and all of its peoples. It’s not just
the Palestinians, the Syrians, the Christians, the Sunnis, the Shia, or this or
that people or group. The question is how much more of the region is going to
erupt in flames while the main powers do their usual dance around the issues.
Given these stakes, it’s a mistake to make progress on one track conditional on
progress on another. A much bolder move is required.

Indeed, it’s probably high time
the Saudis used their considerable regional influence to put together a
high-level Arab delegation to pay an official visit to Tel Aviv with a clear
and direct offer of normalization. The delegation should invite Israel to take
part in a regional security conference where a variety of current issues,
including Palestinian statehood and the Syrian conflict, should be on the
table. Open talks on parallel tracks could foster more positive developments
than secret contacts and tentative symbolic steps.

Time is of the essence these days, for we’re
marking its passage with human lives lost, families displaced, homes and
schools destroyed, and hopes dashed. For this, normalization should be a means
of finding common grounds, not a reward for finding it.

Go ahead, patronize me!

About Ammar

Ammar Abdulhamid is a Syrian-American author and pro-democracy activist based in Silver Spring, Maryland. He is the founder of the Tharwa Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to democracy promotion. His personal website and entries from his older blogs can be accessed here.

The Delirica

The Delirica is a companion blog to the Daily Digest of Global Delirium meant to highlight certain DDGD items by publishing them as separate posts. Also, the Delirica republishes articles by Ammar that appeared on other sites since 2016. Older articles can be found on Ammar's internet archive: Ammar.World