The World Cup Brand Winner: Adidas or Nike?

With approximately 2.6 billion people worldwide following the 2010 World Cup, the spectacle has been a field day for marketers, each trying to connect their brand with the strong emotions fans have for their favorite teams. But the stakes are particularly high for those brands that actually sell football gear. Two contenders, Adidas and Nike, each have a shot at becoming undisputed market leader when the whistle blows on July 11 and the final game concludes. Coming into 2010, their records show them evenly matched: each is estimated to have earned $1.5-1.7 billion in football merchandise sales in 2008 and 2009, and each controls about a third of the total market.

Adidas is playing its tried and tested strategy of being the official FIFA sponsor of the World Cup games. This means the referees wear Adidas uniforms, the footballs are Adidas-branded and televised ads for football apparel and equipment during matches can only be, you guessed it, for Adidas. Moreover, Adidas is the official sponsor for 12 of the 32 teams playing in the World Cup — so the uniforms of teams such as Germany, Argentina, and Spain (all of which advanced to the quarter finals) were emblazoned with the Adidas logo.

Given the shutout sponsorship strategy by Adidas, Nike has had to fight back using different tactics. Back in the 2006 World Cup games, it tried an end-run using digital technology, tapping into consumers’ new penchant for online social networking. Collaborating with Google, Nike created the world’s first social network for football fans, which it named Joga.com (in reference to the Brazilian phrase joga bonito, which means “play beautifully”). The site featured discussion groups on various teams, games, and players, and video clips of Nike-sponsored football stars performing awe-inspiring moves. Fans, thought Nike, would flock to the site as a place to commune with like-minded individuals all over the world, and their enthusiasm would make the videos go viral.

Although Nike came out of the 2006 World Cup in decent shape, thanks in part to the fact that a Puma-sponsored (and not an Adidas-sponsored) team won the championship, its digital strategy didn’t deliver as much lift as it hoped. The vision of millions of fans heavily engaged with the Joga website (while subtly being reminded of the Nike brand) didn’t quite materialize. The problem, so it would seem, was that while Nike’s move recognized consumers’ shift to new media and technologies, it did not capitalize on the deeper and less obvious changes in consumer expectations, attitudes, and behaviors that accompanied that shift.

Fast-forward to the 2010 World Cup games. Once again Nike faces the Adidas official-sponsor shutout approach, and once again Nike opts for a digital offense. Only this time, its marketers take a very different approach.

On May 20th, several weeks before the games began, Nike released a three-minute video ad called “Write the Future” on its Facebook page. The well-crafted ad features some of football’s most famous players (all in Nike gear) imagining what their future would be if they were to make or fail to make a certain play in the game. In less than a week, the number of Nike followers on Facebook doubled, driven by the desire to see the ad and pass it along. But “Write the Future” is not just a static ad. Fans are given tools to edit the spot — and their edited versions compete for votes from appreciative peers. Meanwhile, a “Write the Headline” opportunity via Facebook and Twitter gives fans an even bigger opportunity to see their creativity in lights; it invites them to post a short grabber of a phrase reporting on the future of a player. The most popular of these are displayed in a bright LED light show (visible from 2.5 kilometers away) on Johannesburg’s fourth largest building, which Nike has taken over.

Nike also supported its online campaign with “Write the Future” elements in more traditional media. Although it could not advertise during the televised games, it ran a 30-second version of the “Write the Future” ad on shows airing at the same time on other channels, and on soccer matches prior to the start of the games. The television spots included a tout to pique fans’ interest in seeing the full three-minute version online.

The success of the campaign is indisputable. Five weeks after its debut, the online spot has been viewed by over 20 million people. According to a Nielsen survey that tracks brand buzz (by examining brand references in blogs, online message boards, and social networking sites), as of mid June, Nike enjoyed more than double the share of buzz associated with the World Cup than its rival Adidas (30.2% share of buzz vs. 14.4%, respectively).

What are the keys to the upset? Clearly the campaign’s success owes much to its creative execution and fit with Nike’s brand image. But the new factor here is that it corresponds very well with how consumers have evolved in the digital age. Considered more broadly, Nike’s “Write the Future” campaign is a good example of a company figuring out how to size up a trend and find the right application of it to its business. (This is the focus of Luc Wathieu’s and my article in the current issue of HBR, “Are You Ignoring Trends that Could Shake Up Your Business?”)

Back in 2006, Nike had perceived that social networks were in vogue, but thought it would be sufficient simply to create one to capitalize on that trend. By 2010, it had thought more deeply about the implications of that trend: that consumers had come to expect a much more active role in the content they engage with. They now want to customize content and products to fit their preferences and personality, get immediate feedback on their actions and opinions, and be rewarded for their contributions. They derive great satisfaction from being first to discover things and disseminate them to others. They resent any perceived lack of transparency from the businesses they interact with.

Nike’s efforts to connect those implications with its business imperatives aren’t limited to the “Write the Future” campaign. It has also looked for ways to capitalize on the same trend in its product development. Ask anyone in the business of football merchandise and they will tell you that the big money is in the shoes. Manufacturers typically time their latest and greatest football boots with the World Cup extravaganza. For the current World Cup, Nike launched its Mercurial Vapor SuperFly II. But someone that buys a pair gets more than the enhanced acceleration the new shoes are designed to provide. The shoes come with a unique user code that, once entered online, unlocks a full training program. Its Nike Football+ program was developed in conjunction with the world’s leading coaches and players, and offers a myriad of video training sessions, tips, and methods for improving one’s play. Programs can also be downloaded through an app to an iPhone or to other mobile web-enabled handsets to take to the field. No longer are athletes being asked to pay upwards of $300 just to have a better physical shoe; they’re also getting a service that helps them become better players.

In a matter of days, the 2010 World Cup will be history, and Nike’s current campaign and current shoe will have had their day in the sun. What may endure is its knowledge of how to size up a big new trend and understand how to apply it to its business challenges, and that may produce a whole string of victories. Other companies who want to win with the next hot new thing should take note.

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