Thursday

In its long-range forecast at the end of July, NOAA predicted that August would pick up where July left off in South Florida, with abnormally warm days and nights with below normal precipitation.

That has been the case as we finish up the first week of the new month. Friday’s high at PBIA of 94 was just 2 degrees shy of the record high set in 1970, and the low of 82 was only a degree off the warmest minimum temperature for the date, 82 set in 1993.

The normal high edges down Monday for the first time this summer, from 91 to 90. And in fact some slightly cooler temperatures may show up next week, since rainfall chances for Palm beach shoot up to 40-50 percent through Wednesday as low pressure hangs around Florida’s Big Bend area.

STREAK BROKEN: The airport at Melbourne measured 0.01 of an inch of rain Friday, ending a remarkable run of 32 straight days without measurable precipitation.

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Two areas of interest are on the Hurricane Center’s forecast map. (Credit: NHC)

TROPICS TALK: Earl became a tropical depression over Mexico this morning and was expected to dissipate later today.

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas with potential for development in the Atlantic Basin. The first is the developing low in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to impact Florida’s weather over the next several days — mostly to the north and west of Palm Beach.

The other is a system currently near the Lesser Antilles that is forecast to move north-northwest and possibly develop between Florida and Bermuda next week.

The Gulf system was given a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days, while the disturbance near the Antilles was given a 20 percent chance.

The next two names on the Atlantic list are Fiona and Gaston.

As an interesting side note, the (highly unreliable) Canadian forecast model (CMC) has been showing this system ramping up just east of the Bahamas and then swinging into Florida’s East-Central Coast late in the week. This scenario is not backed up by other models, except that the European (ECMWF) has a very weak low moving north off the Carolina Coast by next weekend.