News analysis

Turkey's prime minister

Is there life after Erdogan?

WHO will be Turkey's next prime minister? The question might sound premature; in June Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was re-elected for a third consecutive term, his Justice and Development (AK) party winning a thumping 50% of the vote.

But when it emerged that Mr Erdoğan had undergone stomach surgery on November 26th, Turks embarked on a frenzy of speculation. The prime minister's doctors swiftly reassured the nation that the country's most popular leader since Atatürk did not have cancer, as many had believed, and was recovering well. But this did not stop the rumour-mills from churning as Mr Erdoğan recuperated in his Istanbul home, before returning to Ankara this week.

Speculation about a power struggle within AK grew when senior party figures, including the deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, spoke out against proposals backed by Mr Erdoğan that would reduce penalties for match-fixing, a serious problem for Turkish football. Mr Arinc, who enjoys considerable support among AK's pious base, is thought to covet Mr Erdoğan's job when it becomes free in 2015.

Under AK's internal rules Mr Erdoğan cannot run for parliament for a fourth time. Instead, he is widely expected to stand for president in 2014, when the incumbent, Abdullah Gül, steps down. Other potential successors to Mr Erdoğan include Ahmet Davutoğlu, the foreign minister, whose popularity extends well beyond AK's base, and Ali Babacan, the quietly efficient economy minister.

Until recently it was widely assumed that Mr Gül would lead AK into the 2015 elections, in a Russia-style job swap with Mr Erdoğan. A former foreign minister with numerous fans among Turkey's western allies, Mr Gül is seen as the only man who can keep AK together once Mr Erdoğan moves upstairs. The trouble is that the ambitious Mr Erdoğan is unlikely to be content with the largely ceremonial role played by Turkish presidents, and will seek to dictate policy.

But Mr Gül, who co-founded AK with Mr Erdoğan, is no poodle. This was made obvious when he vetoed the match-fixing bill on the grounds that it could be considered to be designed to save suspects caught up in a recent scandal. From his sick bed Mr Erdoğan hit back, ordering the bill to be resent to parliament untouched.

In the event, even AK dissenters voted in its favour and it was passed. Mr Gül could have referred the bill to the constitutional court. But he backed down and signed it.

To avoid future squabbles a possibility mooted by some is for Mr Gül to become the next United Nations secretary-general. News that he has asked an British academic to write his biography, presumably for a foreign audience, has been interpreted by some as him laying the ground for his candidacy.

Meanwhile, other cracks in the Turkish elite are growing, especially between Mr Erdoğan and Turkey's most influential Muslim alliance, led by a Pennsylvania-based imam called Fethullah Gülen. Mr Gülen's support has been crucial to AK. His millions of followers have thrived under nine years of the party's rule, bagging key government jobs.

Yet they have grown critical of Mr Erdoğan in recent months. They are unnerved by the rift with Israel, and insist that the prime minister is too soft on the pro-secular army. Never mind that hundreds of officers, including scores of serving generals, have been jailed for alleged coup-plotting. The opaque Gülenists get on better with Mr Gül, and want him to become the next prime minister.

Amid all the plotting one might ask why it is assumed with such certainty that AK will win the next election. One answer is that despite a hopeful start by its new leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the main opposition Republican People's Party remains weak and divided. Another is that the Turkish economy has until now been left largely unscathed by the global financial crisis (although many fear that it is dangerously overheating).

Yet a recent poll commissioned by an American NGO found that over one-third of respondents would “definitely not” vote for AK without Mr Erdoğan at its helm. Besides, as Vladimir Putin's recent setback has shown, voters can tire of stability. The only certainty is that for now, Mr Erdoğan remains indisputably in charge.

What a funny comparision.
A man who devoted his whole life to his nation
A man who saved a nation's honor by awakining national conscience among the citizens and fighted individually on the battle grounds and
A man WHO RECREATED A NATION FROM ITS ASHES
And Tayyip.

Seriously, how can you write sth like that after what you wrote about kilicdaroglu right before elections (you invited people to vote for republican party as the only way to "save" turkey); and now you claim that he remains weak.

As for the opposition between gul and erdogan, don''t you get that there is more democracy with current government, despite the fact that they are called "islamist" (sth that they couldn't do during decades, apparently during their numerous experiences with army, cf. coup d'état of 60, 71 and 80).

And in my personal opinion, AK has been founded in a time of "crisis", with the motivation of "saving" Turkey, and they came to power with majority (and they repeated that success twice). But their mission will be over soon. they will very probably win next elections as well, but then very probably new parties will start to emerge (and they have to), this time not for "saving" the country, but for "developing even more" or a similar motivation. but i believe that AK can't go much longer with same faces. You rightfully observed that erdogan seems to be the strongest person in turkey, but i think it's a false accusation

lastly, for gulenists, they pronounce repeatedly that they don't interfere in politics. although it is true that in terms of number they seem to have a strong influence in turkey, i believe it would be much more easier to "rule" if gulen was in turkey. therefore what is said seems to me nth more than useless, old and ugly slander..

Yes, yes...all i hear is bla bla bla genocide, bla bla bla.
You fools! Turn of the century people were being killed en mass!
Greeks did it, Armenians did it, French did it, UK did it, America did it, Germany did it...all have blood on their hands.
So show some equal representation, otherwise your rants just sound like hate and propaganda.

For the record: Armenians, assisted by the Tsarist Russians, in an attempt to open an Eastern front, where armed by the Russians to encouraged to attack Turkish villagers they lived together with.
The next person, or diaspora, who mentions Armenian genocide without first accepting their blame in it can shove it!

"A man who returned the phrase "Ne mutlu Turkum diyene" and made it mean something again!"

You really must be joking! Nobody could claim hearing any word praising being Turk from the mouth of this man. There is no any evident to prove your claims.Contrary he tried and still trying systematically to mingle and confuse the minds of citizens of this country by inventing some unrooted idioms such as "upper identity" or "lower identity".The last things which could be attributed to this man are nationalism and patriotism.

By the way the owner of the famous sentence you mentioned in your post is Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and Nobody could say this sentence more wholeheartedly than him.

It is really hard to understand the weird title being used for this article.
The continuity of The Turkish Republic does not depend on any person or any condition. Because the governing form of this country is democracy and this model takes its power from PUBLIC not from individuals. The Turkish Republic was exist before him and will be exist forever after his leaving.

It is really hard to understand what you understand from "democracy", but we certainly don't understand the same thing. Believing that you are a Turk, I wonder where were you during your dear coup d'états that have been made by your beloved army. Being an observer for quite a long time, I can assure you that previous governments were not taking their powers from this PUBLIC that you dare to talk about but from the army, that goes for your beloved Baykal as well (I took my time to read your older posts).
I think you are a middle-class, brainwashed and a helpless CHP supporter; maybe you can consider to come to Europe (like most of your ancestors did), because if you don't like current government, you certainly won't love next governments. CHP's rule was an oligarchy, and Ataturk's was monarchy, and neither had anything to do with the democracy that you claim to protect; and I remind you that their era is over. Maybe you should read some history from different point of views (and not the army-made history after coup d'états), since you seem to speak English, that would be helpful for opening your mind (and eyes).

DEAR ERDOGAN,
I HAVE ASKED THE U.S. LEADER BARACK OBAMA TO SEND DRONES INTO SYRIA AND I HAVE ASKED THE CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER TO SEND INTO SYRIA UNMANNED SURVEILLANCE KITS FOR THE OPPOSITION FORCES IN SYRIA. ALSO GOT BAN KI-MOON INVOLVED. THAT'S ALL I CAN DO FOR NOW.
P.S. CAN YOU ALSO ASK THEM FOR THAT TOO.

The UN Peacekeeping Force landed on Cyprus long before 1974, when the Greek majority in Cyprus totally disregarded the 1960 constitution and began prosecuting the Turkish majority in a way that would inspire the "ethnic cleansing" campaigns in post Yugoslavia. Turkey intervened in 1974 in response to a military coup d'etat that toppled President Macarios, thereby saving both the Greek Cypriots (from a military junta) and the Turkish Cypriots (from ethnic cleansing). The presence of Turkish military on the island has assured for the past 37 years that the Greek Cypriots could not carry out their acts of aggression, and that the island remained in peace.

Funny that the Turks speak of ethnic cleansing while they committed numerous genocides (Armenian ,Assyrian, Greek, Dersim)and of course we shouldn't also forget the Constantinople Pogrom and the infamous Varlık Vergisi against the Christian (thanks to this the Sabancı family made they current financial empire).

Have you ever heard of a country called the United States of America? Throughout most of my long life, my country has been invading, bombing, occupying, and otherwise meddling in the affairs of other countries. Would you suggest that the US be barred from leading or participating in major international organizations?

So:
A man who turned the country around from bankruptcy
A man who returned the phrase "Ne mutlu Turkum diyene" and made it mean something again!
A man who has reached out to the Kurds.
A man who saved the nation's honour by awakening a national conscience and pride in their economic strength...
A man WHO CREATED A NATION FROM THE ASHES OF BANKRUPTCY (see Greece)...
I think its a good comparison...
Its not like they are comparing Kemal to Mesut Yilmaz!

I guess we should thank your peace-loving army then... Do you believe that there is still such a danger for "ethnic cleansing" from Greek Cypriots? If not, why is this occupying military force (IMHO) still there?

Right: I know the origins of the phrase and I, appropriately, used it since we are talking in comparisons to Kemal.
For you to belittle the accomplishments of Erdogan, unmatched in the past 90 years (foot note here for Ozal), is just petty and spiteful.
I mentioned back when the AKP won their first elections (you can read my brilliant post history) that AKP would finally return the vision of Kemal from those who have hi-jacked it and have used in oppression of the people it was meant to encourage!

You want proof? I am proud to call my self a Turk, something I was shamed to do until 2001.
I felt to pride with Yilmaz or Ecevit or Demirel, or whats his name (not even worth remembering) president before Gul.

You're blinded of the success and forward movement of the country because your to busy looking back and lamenting the past of incompetents and corruption.
Remove the screen of ignorance my friend and rejoice for Turkey (unless you're not a Turk in which case Keyfine gore....

The fact that there is an Arinc, Babacan and Davutoglu with in AKP is good news. They are still heads and sholders above what the opposition can scrape off the bottom of their shoes.
It also bodes well that a strong succession exists and that a repeat of the past disasters of lousy, corrupt, inept chain of PM's will not be repeated (in no specific order: Ecevit, Yilmaz, Yilmaz, Yilmaz, Ecevit, Ciller, Demirel....)

Dear all, after the horrible death of 35 Kurdish citizens on 28 December 2011, with an air strike by the Turkish military we have created a petition on Change.Org calling the Prime Minister and the government to make peace. The signed petitions are being sent to the office of the Prime Minister. We need your support to make the government hear our call for peace. Could you please sign the petition and give support to our cause?
Here is the link of the petition:
http://www­.change.or­g/petition­s/tell-the­-prime-min­ister-of-t­urkey-stop­-the-war-a­nd-solve-t­he-kurdish­-issue-in-­turkey-via­-politics-­in-peace
Thank you very much for your interest.
Biriz Berksoy