Kelly McParland: Liberals could soon need Rae more than he needs them

Liberals could soon need Rae more than he needs them

There has never been much question about what Bob Rae would like to do with his life when he’s finished being the Liberals’ interim leader. He’d like to drop the interim and take on the job full time.

He’s danced around the issue when asked, but not with much conviction. He agreed not to seek the full-time position while holding the interim title, and has stuck to that. But nothing ever prevented him resigning the part-time job and mounting a campaign to contest the full-time leadership.

“The party is going to have to decide what the rules are and if they say they’re going to take the limitation on the interim leader than, obviously, I’ve got a decision to make. Arlene and I will make that decision once the party’s made up its mind,” he said in the one-on-one interview. “There’s going to be a contest for the leadership. It’s not going to be a coronation for the leadership. It’s going to be a very competitive, open race. I’m just waiting to hear whether or not I’m allowed to participate in it.”

It doesn’t require much reading between the lines to conclude that Mr. Rae has already decided to run. If not, it wouldn’t matter what rules the party decided on, since he wouldn’t be in the contest. Perhaps there’s a chance his family might attempt to dissuade him, but it would be like trying to talk the Sutter family out of hockey. Politics is what the man does; why stop now?

Conveniently, the Toronto Star is doing its bit to remedy Mr. Rae’s biggst weakness, his record as Premier of Ontario during one of its worst economic downturns in history. Tim Armstrong, a former deputy minister in Mr. Rae’s government, insists the widely-held view that the Rae years were an economic disaster is all a “myth” perpetrated by his detractors (who include a rare conjunction of labour, big business and the middle class.) In his telling, Ontario during the Rae years was a veritable wonderland of achievement.

By 1995, Ontario led the way in growth among all Canadian provinces; private sector investment had increased dramatically; labour productivity was at an all-time high, as were manufacturing exports; health-care costs were under improved control and a broad strategy for deficit reduction was in place.

Winning Canadians over to this view may take some convincing. But with a new party apparatus in place and time dwindling down, a decision on the leadership contest can’t be far off. Mr. Rae’s hopes have to look pretty solid at this point. The party is mired in third place, the NDP has managed to pick an energetic and seemingly capable new leader, and Canada’s strengthening economy suggests the Tories will go into the next election with a powerful argument for continued support. Who else would want to lead the Liberals given a scenario like that?

The other names mooted to date are less than exciting. Marc Garneau? Nice astronaut, great Canadian, but he suffers from Ken Dryden’s “worthy but dull” disease. Gerard Kennedy, Dominic LeBlanc? Please. LeBlanc has been trying to generate enthusiasm for himelf longer than Mitt Romney has been trying to win over U.S. Republicans, and with even less success. The only name that consistently attracts attention is Justin Trudeau, but despite his boxing skills his ongoing antics suggest he has much political maturing to do before he’s ready to run anything beyond a constituency office.

Mr. Rae has the skills, experience and apparent desire for what must be the least attractive political challenge in the country. The chief argument against him remains his vulnerability to attack over his Ontario days, and reluctance within the party to make the effort needed to defend him. Lots of Liberals would probably just as soon go down the tubes with a real Liberal at the helm than with a warmed-over NDP convert.

And go down the tubes they might. With Thomas Mulcair far better positioned than any Liberal to woo Quebec, and the West still a No Liberals Zone, the party of Laurier and King could find itself fighting for the leftover scraps of Ontario. Why Mr. Rae remains eager to endure that may be a question. His desire for it isn’t.

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