TY - JOUR
AU - Aizenman,Joshua
TI - Foreign Direct Investment, Employment Volatility and Cyclical Dumping
JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL - No. 4683
PY - 1994
Y2 - March 1994
DO - 10.3386/w4683
UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4683
L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4683.pdf
N1 - Author contact info:
Joshua Aizenman
Economics and SIR
USC
University Park
Los Angeles, CA 90089-0043
Tel: 213-740-4066
E-Mail: aizenman@usc.edu
AB - This paper analyzes the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the patterns of cyclical dumping (exporting at a price below marginal cost). We consider a global economy where manufacturing is monopolistic-competitive, and productivity is subject to country- specific shocks. Labor is risk averse and immobile across countries, and entrepreneurs are risk neutral. Labor employment and income is governed by implicit contracts, which offer stable real income and volatile employment. Capacity investment is irreversible, and is done prior to the resolution of uncertainty. If investment in manufacturing capacity is characterized by returns to scale, higher volatility of productivity shocks is shown to induce producers to diversify internationally by means of FDI. The resultant integrated equilibrium is characterized by greater volatility of employment, as the multinational effectively reallocates employment from a low- realized-productivity to a high-realized-productivity country. We derive a simple condition characterizing cyclical dumping -- it occurs when the percentage shortfall of the realized employment exceeds Lerner's ratio of market power (the inverse of the demand elasticity). Cyclical dumping is more frequent in more competitive and more labor- intensive industries. FDI is shown both to improve welfare, and to increase the incidences of cyclical dumping.
ER -