The outlier is #107 on the UN Iran Resolution. It’s by far the oldest question, and the only one to do worse than a coin toss. But there were 6 questions with Brier Scores worse than 0.2. As you can see below, on Q.107 the problem was that it took a long time to figure out what was happening. Certainly the age was a factor. It went live Nov. 22, when our participation was very low. Participation didn’t really start to pick up until February, Day 150. In the end we got purchase on this one about 60 days out.