NFL Conference Championships 2019 Preview

The road to the Super Bowl reaches its final stop this Sunday with the NFC & AFC Championship games. This time next week, we’ll know who’ll be battling it out for the Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta on February 3rd. Who’s still involved? How did they get here? Can they make it to the big game? Let’s take a look!

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday 20:05)

A massive cold snap is due to hit parts of the United States this weekend, but that won’t be in issue in this one as it will take place inside the Saints’ dome. As the NFC’s number 1 & 2 seeds, each of these teams had the luxury of a bye in the first week of the playoffs. They returned to action last week and while they both won, the comfort levels of their respective match-ups couldn’t have been any more different. The Rams hosted the Dallas Cowboys and blew them out of the water, as expected. They battered and bruised the Cowboys, running the ball an astonishing 48 times (for 273 yards). The Saints, meanwhile, welcomed the reigning Super Bowl champions, Philadelphia Eagles.

Seen as a cert by many, New Orleans had a stuttering start, falling 14-0 behind in the first quarter. They got the job done thanks largely to receiver Michael Thomas, who turned his 12 catches into 171 yards and a touchdown in a 20-14 win for his team.

This exact fixture took place in Week 9 and finished 45-35 to the Saints. In that game, Michael Thomas was the difference maker (noticing a trend here?), exploding for 211 receiving yards and a touchdown. The Rams know that they’ll have to keep close tabs on their hosts if they’re to avoid a similar result this weekend. Their game plan will be based on running the ball effectively – something they’ve done all season, particularly last week. The recent addition of CJ Anderson to their backfield has been a perfect foil for Todd Gurley. He’s managed three 100+ rushing yard games and 4 touchdowns already in his Rams career. His presence meant Gurley could rest up rather than play through an injury towards the end of the regular season, and now that he’s fit and healthy, the Rams have a real two-headed monster at running back. LA’s receivers are quick and shifty, but lack the size to dominate games, so expect them to run often and well, game script permitting.

Look up almost any all time NFL quarterback stat and you’ll see Drew Brees’ name towards the top of the list. Too often in the past, his team has relied too heavily on him alone. He has a very clear favourite target in Michael Thomas, who led the NFL this season with 125 receptions. Unlike previous seasons though, they have a potent rushing attack of their own with the flashiness of Alvin Kamara and the brute strength of Mark Ingram being a great 1-2 punch – their own version of thunder and lightning. They’ll need to improve on recent performances though, particularly last week’s, which should have been a breeze (pun intended). The Saints averaged around 37 points per game from the start of the season until Week 12, but closer to the 19 points per game mark since.

These teams are much closer than the score line of their previous encounter suggests. On any given Sunday, these are two hugely explosive offences, capable of putting up huge numbers. There are three things in the Saints’ favour though: 1) Yes, they need to turn things around offensively, but they have Drew Brees. 2) Despite their recent offensive struggles, the Rams are towards the bottom of the pile this season in the NFL defensively. 3) The game is in New Orleans. Homefield advantage counts for a huge amount in this type of game. There should be plenty of points, but probably not as many as earlier in the season. The Rams will get closer than they did last time, but not close enough.

Prediction

Odds are provided at time of writing, please check your betslip to confirm they have not changed before betting.

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 23:40)

Remember that cold snap I mentioned at the start? This is the game to tune in to if you want to see it. There mightn’t be snow, but an Arctic blast is forecast, which is probably about as much fun to play in as it sounds, with temperatures expected to be well below zero.

This isn’t a huge step beyond the weather these teams are used to playing in (given their usual climates) but it could still play a factor. Traveling to New England for a game in freezing temperatures proved too much for the LA Chargers last week as they were obliterated 41-28. The Patriots had a 35-7 lead at half time before cruising from there. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes got his first taste of playoff action last week in a 31-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts. His prodigious arm didn’t play much of a role as his team ran for all 4 of their touchdowns.

Much like the Rams – Saints game, these two teams also faced off earlier in the season, though the Chiefs were visitors as opposed to hosts. In a breath-taking game, 83 points were scored,The Patriots won 43-40, Mahomes showed he could hang with Tom Brady and everyone began counting the days to the next meeting between them.

New England making it to this stage of the playoffs is nothing new in the Brady era. Playing on the road at this stage of the playoffs isn’t anything new either, but it is a bad thing. They’ve lost the last two playoff games they’ve played on the road (both against the Denver Broncos in 2015 & 2013). Boasting an unbeaten 8-0 record at home this season versus a 3-5 record away from Foxboro, there could be some nerves about traveling to Kansas. All cylinders will need to be firing, just like they were last week. Sony Michel bagged three rushing touchdowns in his first ever playoff game, Julian Edelman moved the chains well with his 151 receiving yards and James White was an excellent safety valve with 15 catches for 97 yards.

You’ll be hard pressed to find a team with more offensive weapons than the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is widely seen as the next great quarterback, Tyreek Hill’s speed is hard to stop, Travis Kelce is arguably the league’s best tight end, and it doesn’t seem to matter who plays at running back, they’re going to be unstoppable. That being said, they were statistically the worst defence in the NFL this season in terms of yards allowed per game. This is likely a product of the fact that they were beating teams so badly that their opponents had to take more chances, but still. Those stats are much better at home than they are on the road and they were relentless in their stuffing of the Colts last week.

There are so many trends contradicting each other in this one that it really makes it a bit of a coin toss.

New England are on the road – advantage Chiefs. It usually pays to oppose a quarterback who’s inexperienced in the playoffs – advantage Patriots. The Patriots have an incredible record in snow/sub-zero games, the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes have played one, won one – advantage could be anyone’s.

While all the talk in the build up to the game will undoubtedly be about these two elite quarterbacks, it’s the ground game which could win it. Sony Michel has been a revelation this season and the Chiefs have struggled to the stop the run all year. The freezing temperatures will make it much more difficult for receivers to catch huge passes through the air, so I feel the likes of Edelman and White, with their short receptions and yards after the catch, will be the deciding factor. Either way, it’s going to be interesting.