A few more thoughts on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering cases - or more specifically the facts. #fairmaps#ncpol 2/

Although some are skeptical about what the Supreme Court will do in the partisan gerrymandering cases it took today (and not without justification, especially given Justice Kennedy’s retirement), it’s important to remember how unusual the facts of NC are. #fairmaps#ncpol 3/

For starters, in contrast to other cases where there is a factual battle over why maps ended up looking the way they did, in NC, there isn’t a question - Republicans said it. Out loud in public. On the floor of the legislature. #fairmaps#ncpol 4/

North Carolina’s 2011 congressional map, which had been thrown out by courts as a racial gerrymander, also had been a pretty effective partisan gerrymander, giving Rs a 10-3 congressional advantage in a state that is nowhere close to being that Republican. #fairmaps#ncpol 5/

When ordered to redraw the map in 2016, Rs said fine because of racial gerrymandering but we will not consider any map that does not have 10 GOP districts. They said it. They wrote it into the formal criteria (yes, really). #fairmaps#ncpol 6/

And the maps worked as intended. Producing a 10-3 map even in a wave election like 2018 (with an asterisk by NC-9) despite the fact that Ds won nearly half the vote. As the chart below shows, that’s entirely predictable given the spreading out of GOP voters. #fairmaps#ncpol 7/

To be sure, the 2016 map (below) was a little bit less effective of a partisan gerrymander than the 2011 racial gerrymander (above) - because black voters weren’t packed into districts - but it still has proven remarkably effective. #fairmaps#ncpol 8/

In short the facts of North Carolina are so stark that it is hard to see the Supreme Court doing what it has done before and punting. In fact, they fit squarely into the hypo asked by Justice Kennedy at both the WI & MD cases last term. #fairmaps#ncpol 9/

That hypo asked what the result would be if a state had a law that required maximizing a map in favor of one party over the other. The lawyers for both WI & MD agreed that would be a problem. So did Justice Alito and CJ Roberts. #fairmaps#ncpol 10/

Well, that fact hypo IS the story North Carolina’s 2016 congressional map. #fairmaps#ncpol 11/

Now, the court yet could walk away completely from the subject of partisan gerrymandering. But it is hard to see it punting. So in a lot of ways, NC is a decisive showdown. #fairmaps#ncpol 12/

And with another round of redistricting approaching, it’s an important one. Because one of the reasons that the North Carolina gerrymander occurred in the first place is because many took the court’s deadlock in Vieth/LULAC as a signal there were no limits. #fairmaps#ncpol 13/

Related hashtags

2018 was a busy and, in many ways, head spinning year on the redistricting front - with action in both state and federal court and at the ballot box. A look back. #fairmaps 1/

Things kicked off on January 5, when the special master in the racial gerrymandering challenge to North Carolina's legislative maps issued his recommendations on how the maps should be redrawn. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 2/

Then, on Jan 9, while the court in the NC racial gerrymandering case was weighing recommendations for fixes to the legislative maps, a different federal court issued a ruling striking down NC's congressional map as a partisan gerrymander. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 3/

A bunch of handwringing debate about Beto O'Rourke's performance in the smaller Texas counties - where his 26.6% of the vote underperformed Bill White's 32.4% but bettered Wendy Davis' all-time D low of 22.6%. #txlege 1/

And there is no question that doing better in rural Texas would have helped O'Rourke close the gap with Ted Cruz. But it's important to remember that the smaller counties only contribute around 21% of the vote, so the impact of "underperformance" can be exaggerated. #txlege 2/

Even if O'Rourke had won the same percentage of the vote in the smaller counties as Bill White, he still would have come up short (a lot closer to be sure but still short). #txlege 3/

Related threads

Justice Ruther Bader Ginsburg is not at #SCOTUS today for arguments, the public information office announced, but will be participating in the cases on review of the filings and transcripts from today’s arguments.

BREAKING: The Supreme Court denies the Trump administration’s request to let it enforce its new asylum ban while the case proceeds in court. The decision was 5-4, with Chief Justice Roberts joining his more liberal colleagues in denying DOJ’s stay request.

BREAKING: #SCOTUS will not stop the kids' climate change case from going to trial — at least not now.

Here's the full #SCOTUS order, which rejects the government's request to halt the trial because "adequate relief may be available in the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit." documentcloud.org/documents/5027…

Thomas and Gorsuch, however, note that they would have granted the stay now.

The idea at the heart of this purge was that anyone who did not believe in the destruction of the New Deal state was not a legitimate voter. Anyone who believed in business regulation and social welfare was unAmerican, and just wanted free stuff. GOP hit black voters first. /3

Important note about today's Iowa Supreme Court decision striking down the state's 3-day waiting period to obtain an abortion: It is based on the Iowa Constitution, not the US Constitution. iowacourts.gov/courtcases/439…

And since the Iowa Supreme Court gets the final says on the Iowa Constitution, that's that on that.

Expect more of this focus on state constitutions and state supreme courts on the left as #SCOTUS moves right.