On St. Paul's East Side, homeowners in the 1900 block of Hawthorne Avenue are in line for property tax increases of 40 percent or more -- an additional $430 on their tax bills. Property owners along the 700 block of Summit Avenue will see just as much in savings.

The city's middle-class property owners will feel the biggest bite in their wallet come tax time, and nowhere more so than on the city's East Side.

After years of mild tax breaks, the owners of median-value homes in St. Paul likely will do a double-take when "Truth in Taxation" statements arrive in November. Residential property values finally are climbing, and property taxes will, too.

Even before proposed levy increases are factored in, county officials say many owners of homes with taxable market values of $145,000 next year will pay an added $112, with wide variations by neighborhood.

Meanwhile, small-business owners and some high-end homes will enjoy some tax relief.

Most taxable market values are up about 11 percent in St. Paul, but residents of Dayton's Bluff, Sunray-Battle Creek-Highwood and the Greater East Side -- where home values are climbing 15 percent to 25 percent -- are in for some of the biggest surprises. Their tax bills likely will climb by hundreds of dollars.

St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman's 2015 budget proposal calls for an additional levy increase of 2.4 percent, which would tack on another $16 to the average tax bill.

The reason that median-value homes are getting whacked has to do with shifting tax values between properties. Imagine that every property in St. Paul was represented by a slice of a pie. If a neighborhood or a certain type of property -- such as apartment buildings -- gains value faster than your own, that area or property type is now a larger share of the total pie and has to pay up accordingly.

"If your value goes up a ton compared to everybody else, you're the one who takes a hit," said city council President Kathy Lantry, who represents a large portion of the East Side.

In addition, the state's homestead exclusion benefit is smaller for higher-value homes, so as values rise, that benefit diminishes in step.

During the housing slump that followed the recession of 2007 to 2009, businesses, apartment buildings and large, high-value homes generally retained their market value better than everyday residences, and those properties absorbed the greatest property tax increases.

That's no longer the case. County officials estimate that for the coming tax year, the taxable market value of a median-priced home in St. Paul -- one with a 2014 taxable market value of $130,500 -- will climb 11 percent to reach $145,000.

In contrast, commercial properties are expected to gain no value.

Apartment buildings will increase in value by about 7 percent. Homes in the Macalester-Groveland area are averaging value gains of 10.8 percent, slightly less than the citywide average.

In other words, modest, everyday homes are making up a larger share of the city's tax base -- or a larger share of the pie -- and their taxes will increase accordingly.

Chris Samuel, manager of property tax services for Ramsey County, walked the St. Paul City Council through the particulars during a financial presentation last week. Council members acknowledged that this will be a tough year for many middle-income residents and for city government.

"No one cares what the trend has been for the last five years," Lantry said. "They care what the check has to be written out for."

Council members have grown accustomed to apartment building owners and residents of more comfortable neighborhoods such as Mac-Groveland and Highland Park attending budget meetings with concerns about escalating taxes. Samuel said that while tax shifts have caused many residents' property taxes to go up and down, about 10 percent of the homeowners in Mac-Groveland have seen nothing but tax increases year after year.

In fact, owners of median-value homes in St. Paul have enjoyed annual tax decreases of 0.6 percent each year since 2008, according to county officials. In contrast, residents of Mac-Groveland have suffered annual tax increases of 2.9 percent each year since 2008.

This year will be different. Council members likely will hear just as many complaints from residents in the Sunray-Battle Creek-Highwood area, where home values are poised to increase 15 percent. In Dayton's Bluff, the average taxable market value increase is 16 percent.

And the northeast corner of the city bordering Maplewood -- known as the Greater East Side -- leads the city in terms of market value increases. The median home value there is poised to grow 24.6 percent.

Citywide, the average home value increase is 11.1 percent, with neighborhoods such as Hamline-Midway (8.9 percent), Highland (9.2), Summit Hill (10) and Mac-Groveland (10.8) hovering at or below the citywide average. Home values in the North End (1.7 percent) and West Seventh Street (2) increased the least.

Samuel used the example of a home valued at $130,500 in 2014. Assuming that home's taxable market value increased 11.1 percent in 2015 to $145,000, the homeowner's overall property tax bill will grow from $1,895 to $2,007, before levy increases. Coleman's proposed 2.4 percent tax levy adds an additional $16.

"Certainly, in some areas, we're going to look at some significant tax increases," Samuel said.

City and county officials point out, however, that many East Side and median-value properties enjoyed significant tax relief during the housing slump. In effect, their taxes are now playing catch-up.

"Some of the areas seeing the largest increases this year are also the areas that have seen some pretty significant reductions in previous years, as well," Samuel said.

Currently, no changes are expected in the Ramsey County levy, the county's Regional Rail Authority levy or the St. Paul Public Schools levy, but a few other factors impact the bottom line.

The metro-wide "fiscal disparities" program redistributes a certain amount of tax money across the metro counties -- St. Paul is a net recipient and Bloomington is a net donor -- saving that homeowner an additional $18 this year compared with last year.

The added savings are mostly a wash. That's because properties will qualify for a lower homestead exclusion benefit as their values rise, adding an additional $19 next year.

In contrast to median-value homes, a median-value commercial property valued at $368,000 last year is poised to lose 2 percent of market value in 2015, dropping to $361,000. That business owner's property taxes also will drop, falling from $14,766 in 2014 to about $14,000 in 2015, according to Samuel's estimates.

In St. Paul, residents also would see some fee increases under Coleman's budget proposal. Fees pertaining to right-of-way assessments would increase 2.4 percent, recycling services would go up 2.2 percent, and sewer utilities would go up 3.5 percent.

Building developers would see fee increases related to building permits and certificates of occupancy.