NBA Finals preview

LeBron James is back in the Finals for the sixth straight time, hoping to end the Cavaliers' title drought, while Stephen Curry and the Warriors seek a repeat after a 3-1 comeback in the West finals. Who has the edge? Let's look at the analytics.

Illustration by Cun Shi

by By Luke KnoxIllustration by Cun Shi

05/31/16

Points Per Play

On a per-play basis, who can be relied upon to make an offensive or defensive play? For the Cavs, LeBron James is by far their best defender (.72 points per play, via Synergy Sports Tech research, the lowest regular-season total in the NBA), while Andrew Bogut (.758) is most effective on defense for Golden State. Surprisingly, Tristan Thompson is Cleveland's most efficient offensive option (1.088 points per play), a shade behind the Warriors' Klay Thompson (1.094). Of course, Stephen Curry (1.177) is the stalwart on offense -- he is 24.3 percent better than the league average and had the best offensive PPP in the league.

BUBBLES ARE SIZED BY TOTAL MINUTES PLAYED

2,000

1,000

500

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Cavaliers

Warriors

Point Differentials

Both teams have held up under the strain of a long season after getting off to fast starts. The Cavaliers endured ups and downs during the first half before stabilizing under the guidance of head coach Tyronn Lue, who took over after 41 games. The Warriors were neck-and-neck with the Spurs for the league's best point differential throughout the season, and Golden State's regular-season differential was only 10 points better than San Antonio's. But the Spurs wilted against the Thunder in the Western Conference semis, and Golden State had to rally from a 3-1 series deficit to get past Oklahoma City.

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Percentiles by Play

Despite a record-setting season shooting from 3-point range, the Warriors actually logged more plays in transition than they did spotting up for jumpers -- 17.5 percent of their plays came in transition, per Synergy Sports Tech research. As you might expect, the Cavs rely more on isolation (8.9 percent) and post-up plays (8.1) than Golden State (6.3 and 6.1, respectively). Breaking down each player's league percentile by Points Per Play, you can see the versatility of LeBron James and Stephen Curry in 11 play types. James was 80th percentile or above in four categories, while Curry was 80th or above in six of them. The Warriors' best player on post-ups? Surprisingly, it's Shaun Livingston (88th percentile). Kyrie Irving is tough to stop on cuts to the basket (92nd percentile).

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PLAYERS WITH LESS THAN 10 PLAYS IN A CATEGORY DO NOT RECEIVE A RATING

Cavaliers

5 most common play types

Spot up20.2%

Pick and roll, ball handler17.9%

Transition13.2%

Isolation8.9%

Post-up8.1%

Warriors

5 most common play types

Transition17.5%

Spot up16.6%

Off screen11.8%

Cut10.7%

Pick and roll, ball handler10.5%

Playoff Usage

While James and Irving have been ultra-reliable for the Cavs throughout the playoffs, Kevin Love has been wildly inconsistent. Love started the 2015-16 postseason with eight consecutive double-doubles, averaging 18.9 PPG and 12.5 RPG in that span. Despite his 25-point outburst in Game 5 vs. the Raptors, Love averaged only 14.2 PPG and 4.4 RPG in his next five games. Those fluctuations are reflected in his playoff usage rates, an estimated percentage of team plays that a player is involved with while on the floor. For the Warriors, Klay Thompson took on a more active role following Curry's knee injury, and the team used Green more as the conference finals progressed.

HOVER OVER EACH LINE FOR USAGE RATE PROGRESSIONS

Cavaliers

Player

Reg. season

Postseason by Game

Postseason

LeBron James

31.4%

29.3%

Kyrie Irving

29.5%

30.3%

Kevin Love

23.4%

24.3%

J.R. Smith

18.0%

13.4%

Tristan Thompson

11.7%

9.7%

Warriors

Player

Reg. season

Postseason by Game

Postseason

Stephen Curry

32.6%

33.3%

Klay Thompson

26.3%

29.1%

Draymond Green

18.8%

19.4%

Harrison Barnes

15.9%

13.8%

Andrew Bogut

11.4%

11.4%

Playoff Defense

The Warriors specialize in getting a hand in the shooter's face on defense, and they average 66.2 contested shots per game in the postseason (third among all playoff teams). Cleveland averages 57.1, second-lowest among playoff teams. Case in point for Golden State: In Game 1 against Portland, 32 of 43 shots by Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were contested, of which they made just 8 (good for 25 percent shooting). That aggressive style is spearheaded by Draymond Green, who is remarkably active. According to the NBA's new metrics, which track contested shots, here's where Green stands compared to everyone on both rosters in contested shots this postseason:

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Previous Meetings

The teams first met in a marquee Christmas Day matchup, and the Warriors claimed an 89-83 victory -- one of only two wins this season in which they scored fewer than 100 points. They did it by shutting down James, Love and Irving (combined 33.3 field goal percentage on 57 attempts), while Draymond Green notched 22 points, 15 rebounds and 7 assists. In their second meeting in Cleveland, the Warriors knocked down 10 first-half 3-pointers to take a commanding 70-44 halftime lead and cruised to a 132-98 win. Both teams rested their starters for the majority of the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers' downfall: reliance on isolation. Only 45 percent of Cleveland's shots came off a pass, and the Cavaliers shot just 35.7 percent in one-on-one situations. The Warriors excelled in transition, outscoring the Cavaliers 29-2.

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Dec. 25

Jan. 18

How They Were Built

For Golden State, it's all about their prowess on draft night since 2009. Recent picks Curry, Klay Thompson, Barnes and Green are fixtures in the rotation, and none of them were drafted higher than seventh overall. The Warriors also used another lottery pick, Ekpe Udoh from 2010, to land Bogut in a 2012 trade. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have undergone a massive overhaul since James opted to return as a free agent in the summer of 2014. Only draft picks Irving and Tristan Thompson and free-agent signee Dellavedova remain from the pre-LeBron days. Cleveland landed Love, Smith and Mozgov in separate trades that have all paid dividends.

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Four Factors

Dean Oliver, a forefather of basketball analytics, identified these four categories as the pillars of success. When applied to the Warriors and Cavaliers, a pattern emerges. Cleveland, with the size of Thompson and Love, rebounds well and generally does better at winning the turnover battle with the adept passing of James and Irving. However, Golden State is exceptionally good at shooting and defending the opposing shooter, period. Simple as that, despite not ranking in the top 10 in any of the other metrics here. Further proof that the NBA really is a make-or-miss league.

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Defensive ranks

EFFECTIVE FIELD GOAL PCT.

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE

REBOUND PERCENTAGE

FREE THROWS/FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS

Offensive ranks

EFFECTIVE FIELD GOAL PCT.

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE

REBOUND PERCENTAGE

FREE THROWS/FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS

BPI Title Chances

25%

ESPN Basketball Power Index chances of the Cavaliers winning the championship

75%

ESPN Basketball Power Index chances of the Warriors winning the championship