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Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I just wanted to point out one reason, not just the walks, that Bruce's OBP is closer to his AVG..... Marty Brennamen is excited, Bruce had 5 sac flies this year. Those aren't at bats, but are plate appearances, so it draws his two numbers closer. Without them, it puts his numbers 12 points further apart.

Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with Bruce's plate discipline and the AB suppression factor of those five Outs would leave Bruce's IsoD at a paltry .042.

I really like Bruce's tools, but if we expect him to perform as anything like his current iteration once he hits the show for the first time, we'd be crazy IMHO. His current BA (.359) doesn't project to be sustainable, and his low IsoD doesnt' project very well. He's "succeeding poorly".

And for folks who get grumpy about offensive player K rates, Bruce is currently striking out once every 4.10 AB in AAA. For his MilB career, it's been one K every 3.96 AB. Adam Dunn's rate this year is once every 3.74 AB. Projecting that over 650 PA, it means that folk may have to stomach 150+ K's per season from Bruce at the MLB level, at least at first, and likely for quite a while.

Everyone get ready, because Bruce will be here soon. He could be great. But he also could be something different that what Reds fans expect.

"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams

Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with Bruce's plate discipline and the AB suppression factor of those five Outs would leave Bruce's IsoD at a paltry .042.

I really like Bruce's tools, but if we expect him to perform as anything like his current iteration once he hits the show for the first time, we'd be crazy IMHO. His current BA (.359) doesn't project to be sustainable, and his low IsoD doesnt' project very well. He's "succeeding poorly".

And for folks who get grumpy about offensive player K rates, Bruce is currently striking out once every 4.10 AB in AAA. For his MilB career, it's been one K every 3.96 AB. Adam Dunn's rate this year is once every 3.74 AB. Projecting that over 650 PA, it means that folk may have to stomach 150+ K's per season from Bruce at the MLB level, at least at first, and likely for quite a while.

Everyone get ready, because Bruce will be here soon. He could be great. But he also could be something different that what Reds fans expect.

Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with Bruce's plate discipline and the AB suppression factor of those five Outs would leave Bruce's IsoD at a paltry .042.

Sure, but it has absolutely nothing to do anything I typed. The Reds want his OBP-AVG to be closer to 60-70. I simply made the point that his 5 sac flies are keeping those current numbers about 12 points lower than his walk rate would suggest given he wasn't on pace for 18 sac flies this year.

I really like Bruce's tools, but if we expect him to perform as anything like his current iteration once he hits the show for the first time, we'd be crazy IMHO. His current BA (.359) doesn't project to be sustainable, and his low IsoD doesnt' project very well. He's "succeeding poorly".

I don't think anyone expects him to hit .360+ or slug .660+.

And for folks who get grumpy about offensive player K rates, Bruce is currently striking out once every 4.10 AB in AAA. For his MilB career, it's been one K every 3.96 AB. Adam Dunn's rate this year is once every 3.74 AB. Projecting that over 650 PA, it means that folk may have to stomach 150+ K's per season from Bruce at the MLB level, at least at first, and likely for quite a while.

Jay is striking out less per PA this year than he has in his career. Granted I don't care much about a batters strikeout rate, but just wanted to point that out.

Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Everyone will concentrate on Jays strikeouts and ignore the things he does well. Kinda like Adam Dunn part two.

Well, kind of, but not really. Bruce will play defense, which Dunn doesn't. That will keep some people off his back even if he strikes out a ton. Bruce also will hit the other way, which will keep a few more people off his back. Bruce won't be the lightning rod that Dunn is for a lot of reasons, but mostly because he plays on both sides of the ball.

Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with Bruce's plate discipline and the AB suppression factor of those five Outs would leave Bruce's IsoD at a paltry .042.

I really like Bruce's tools, but if we expect him to perform as anything like his current iteration once he hits the show for the first time, we'd be crazy IMHO. His current BA (.359) doesn't project to be sustainable, and his low IsoD doesnt' project very well. He's "succeeding poorly".

And for folks who get grumpy about offensive player K rates, Bruce is currently striking out once every 4.10 AB in AAA. For his MilB career, it's been one K every 3.96 AB. Adam Dunn's rate this year is once every 3.74 AB. Projecting that over 650 PA, it means that folk may have to stomach 150+ K's per season from Bruce at the MLB level, at least at first, and likely for quite a while.

Everyone get ready, because Bruce will be here soon. He could be great. But he also could be something different that what Reds fans expect.

I don't see how any of us could question what you have presented here.

Bruce projects to strikeout about a 143 times now at AAA for 600 AB, while his batting stats indicate that he hits .363 .392 .669 1.061. On Redszone a strikeout is considered just another out, and of course it is when considering data points, one out is one out.

One might prefer outs where contact outs are made over multiple strikeouts so that one can make some type of determination that the batter is seeing the ball well, that his hitting approach or mechanics are sound by the type of consistent contact that he might be exhibiting with an assumption that the player will eventually get his hits as long as the batter is making more consistent contact a higher percentage of times. Regardless of the thought though, an out is an out.

At his young age it looks like that Bruce will strikeout a lot yet still be very productive as a offensive producer.

Is there any conversion tables that can tell us what to anticipate from a given player batting w, x, y, z at AAA level, conversion tables that would indicate what type of batting ranges could be anticipated from that same batter at the major league level?

Re: Reds By The Numbers -JOHN ERARDI

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with Bruce's plate discipline and the AB suppression factor of those five Outs would leave Bruce's IsoD at a paltry .042.

I really like Bruce's tools, but if we expect him to perform as anything like his current iteration once he hits the show for the first time, we'd be crazy IMHO. His current BA (.359) doesn't project to be sustainable, and his low IsoD doesnt' project very well. He's "succeeding poorly".

And for folks who get grumpy about offensive player K rates, Bruce is currently striking out once every 4.10 AB in AAA. For his MilB career, it's been one K every 3.96 AB. Adam Dunn's rate this year is once every 3.74 AB. Projecting that over 650 PA, it means that folk may have to stomach 150+ K's per season from Bruce at the MLB level, at least at first, and likely for quite a while.

Everyone get ready, because Bruce will be here soon. He could be great. But he also could be something different that what Reds fans expect.

It will be interesting to see how Jay Bruce's major league career stacks up. Adam Dunn's strike outs went way up in the major leagues. He struck out once every 4.47 ABs in the minors whereas he's struck out once every 3.09 ABs in his 8 yr major league career His avg also dropped. He was a .300 hitter in the minors. His major league avg is sub .250.

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