New York--Overall media advertising spending will be down slightly (-0.4%) in the first half of 2002, compared with the same period last year, according to preliminary estimates by CMR Taylor Nelson Sofres, an advertising measurement company. The numbers were released Tuesday morning at AdWatch: Outlook 2002, an event sponsored by BtoB sister publication Advertising Age, CMR and UBS Warburg.

"It's not been as bad as we expected," said David Peeler, CMR president-CEO. Peeler was bullish regarding ad spending growth later this year, predicting 5.1% growth for the third quarter and 7.1% growth for the fourth quarter. He also predicted a 2.5% increase to $109 billion in overall advertising spending for 2002 over 2001.

Peeler indicated that this year's broadcast TV upfront sales--which are up significantly over 2001, according to reports--suggest a recovery that will include other media as well. The upfront is the broadcast TV sellers' yearly pre-sale of advertising for the upcoming season.

Despite Peeler's optimism, some media fared better than others in CMR's 2002 forecast. Of 12 media measured, b-to-b magazines came in dead last, with a predicted 11.4% drop in advertising spending for the full year. CMR forecasted declines in other print media ad spending, including national newspapers, and consumer and Sunday magazines. Meanwhile, gains were predicted for media including spot TV (up 8.9%) and Internet (up 5.3%).