Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (18-32) at San Francisco Giants (27-24)

The Cubs start a ten game road trip with a visit to Pac Bell Park (or whatever the hell they're calling it these days). At least this series, unlike most west coast series, will only have one super late game (tonight's). Unfortunately the Cubs will miss Tim Lincecum, who seems to have transformed into a lesser pitcher. Maybe Jeff Samardzija secretly did a hair transplant with him in the offseason, Face/Off style.

Team Overviews

NL Ranks in parens

Cubs

Giants

wOBA

.304 (14th)

.306 (12th)

BSR

4.1 (1st)

2.1 (6th)

UZR

9.9 (5th)

-7.7 (12th)

DRS

3 (5th)

-12 (9th)

SP FIP

4.26 (14th)

3.66 (7th)

RP FIP

4.54 (16th)

3.07 (1st)

N.b.: the Rockies are a whopping -52 runs below average on defense this year by DRS. Yowza.

I guess I should take back what I said about this team at least having good starting pitching compared to the 2006 team. Though a lot of that damage to the Cubs standing happened during the roughly 231 HRs that were hit in the Padres series, where the wind was howling out every game.

Position Players

Melky Cabrera is having a huge year at the plate, posting a .373/.417/.550 line. He's getting just a little help from a .413 BABIP, but at least he's hitting for power beyond any grounders with eyes. Still, he's Melky Cabrera. I laughed the other day when I read an article discussing the new free agent compensation rules that suggested he might get ~$15m a year. This is a guy with only 9 career WAR over 6 seasons and change. I can't wait until the Royals offer him that contract (dying laughing). Aside from Cabrera, the other offensive leaders on the Giants include OF Gregor Blanco (5.8 wRAA), former Cub Angel Pagan (7.6 wRAA), Buster Posey (6.0 wRAA), and the injured Kung-Fu Panda (6.2 wRAA). Those guys look like a pretty good core to the offense, but remember that their team wOBA is .306. Everyone else in the lineup has been bad terrible – those five players are the only ones who have posted above average offensive production. The worst offender are middle infielders Brandon Crawford and Manny Burriss, who have posted -17.8 wRAA between them. Ryan Theriot (Ryan Theriot!) and his -6.8 wRAA is the current designated offensive black hole at 2b.

Defensively Blanco and Posey are pretty good, while Pagan, Theriot, and Cabrera have the biggest negatives. Pagan, Burriss, and Blanco all have double digit steals, while noted speedster Ryan Theriot has zero steals to one CS, and actually has a (barely) non-negative BSR number.

Injuries

The Giants are missing three key contributers. 3B Pablo Sandoval is out with a broken hand and could be back in a few weeks. 2B Freddy Sanchez had shoulder surgery in March and having trouble throwing. There's no timetable for his return, and Bochy is already suggesting the possibility he might be out all year. Brian Wilson's Beard's wearer had TJS in April and is donezo for the year.

Castillo and Soto are still out for the Cubs, and I haven't heard news on either of them lately. Castillo's injury was supposed to only put him out for a week, and he can be activated later this week. Soto is out for another 2 weeks, at least. Soriano is still having trouble with his leg but he's still playing in every game.

Pitching Matchups

Maholm had a tough time finding the zone in his last start against the hapless Pirates offense. It also marked the first time in over a month that he failed to get double digit grounders in a start. For the most part his problem this year has been with home runs, so pitching in the Giants spacious park should be a nice break for him.

Bumgarner had a monster year in 2011, which was his first full season. He posted a 2.67 FIP (3.10 xFIP) and struck out 191 batters. Not too shabby. His strikeout rate has regressed and then some to 6.41 K/9, but he's still doling out remarkably few free passes and has been inducing plenty of grounders. He's been knocked around a bit in his last four starts, giving up 17 runs.

Giving up five homers in his last two starts didn't do Garza's FIP any favors, and as the 13 runs didn't help his ERA either. I thought his velocity had been down the past few starts, but according to the pfx data on fangraphs it's only down maybe 1 mph from the start of the year.

Cain picked up right where he left off last year, and is striking out even more batters (and walking less) than last season. He's an extreme flyball pitcher, but he's always done a great job at suppressing HRs (playing in so many NL west park helps too).

Zito has managed to produce meh numbers instead of terrible this year, but it looks like most of it is a factor of luck and sequencing. Zito is a very hittable fly ball pitcher and he's had luck with balls in play and out of play this season. A start in which he doesn't give up a HR is a notable start.

Speaking of home runs, Travis Wood pitches were flying out of Wrigley earlier this week. He gave up four homers to the Padres offense on a day where the wind was howling out. Hopefully we see the Travis Wood that looked pretty good in Houston instead of that version.

I forgot all about Vogelsong when we were discussing how unusual Samardzija's transformation was. Vogelsong was also a high potential pitcher who sucked for years in both the minors and in the majors with the Pirates, then suddenly turned it around and had huge season (and at the age of 34, no less!). He's apparently pitched especially well from the stretch, if his 80+ LOB% post-transformation is to be believed. The biggest part of his transformation last year was a drop in his walk rate from the not so good 4+ per nine earlier in his career to the much more palatable 3 per nine. He's walking batters more in line with his career numbers this year, though.

Samardzija's transformation has been a little different, because aside from throwing strikes he's also striking out a lot more batters. He was the only Cubs starter to throw a good game against the Mighty Padres, pitching into the 8th inning before being pulled. He was efficient for most of the game, for the first 5-6 innings he was only averaging 10 pitches per inning.

@ GBTS:
Hey GBTS–this is for you, since you seem to be paying the most attn to fantasy scenarios (and no one will read comments on the last thread now).
What do you think about trading Furcal straight up for Tommy Hanson in a weekly Head to Head fantasy league? I have Asdrubal Cabrera at SS so Furcal is excess. The trade partner also has Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Beachy, Morrow, and Johan Santana. I originally offered Furcal for Johnson since Tulo went on the DL for him.

@ SkipVB:
I’d probably do it. I don’t really trust Furcal to play the whole season, and if you don’t really need him then you might as well turn him into something else. I know Hanson isn’t exactly a model of durability but I’ve always liked him.

SkipVB is excited! I get to watch the Cubs live on TV for the first time tonight. Previously my only viewing was a pixelated Pinetar link (I assume the pixels were due to my lousy internet connection).

@ GBTS:
He’s the number 1 SS in our H2H league this year. Which is surprising. I’m happy to trade him and sell high, but my hesitation was over how inconsistent Hanson has been and if his shoulder will hold out.

@ josh:
On TV they said the Cubs had scored more runs in the 9th than any other inning (37 I think) and outscored opponents by something like 37-17. Too bad the comebacks have to be with 5 run deficits all the time.

Fun no-hitter facts now that the Mets finally have their first:
San Diego still doesn’t have one (whew, glad we played them already this week). 43 years and counting.

The Mets went 8019 games without one, but that didn’t beat the streak of 8945 games by the Phillies from 1906-1964.

All current MLB parks that have been around at least 10 years have had two or more no-hitters thrown in them with the exception of Camden Yards and the Rockies’ park, with one each–by Hideo Nomo for the visiting team (Red Sox, Dodgers). Those were Nomo’s only two no hitters.

@ ACT:@ mb21:
yes, it was totally a gift call.
5 walks and 134 pitches. My guess is that by the end of the season this no-hitter won’t be one of the top 5 most dominant pitching performances. Maybe it isn’t now, but I don’t know where you get that stat. I rely on MB for that! (dying laughing)

I want to get the MLEs on Soler, but I can’t find stats for him anywhere.

The only MLE I know about with regards to Soler is this one: stay the fuck away! Let some other team make that mistake. The Cubs already blew money on one guy who played the equivalent of A ball last season. I wouldn’t even give Soler one-third of the money the Cubs gave that guy. That guy has an ERA over 7, FIP over 5.5 and a sucK rate of just 5 per 9. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa650876&position=P

He’s been the victim of errors, but Concepcion threw a May 15th 6-inning shutout and has 3 starts in May where he has allowed <2 ER and gone 4+ innings. It was very, very stupid for Thepstien to try him out as a Starter at such a high level when he only has two working pitches. The guy should not have been starting in full-season until the quirks were worked out in his changeup.

I know you are looking at peripherals but I’m having trouble calling Geraldo Concepcion a bust yet. I think he’s been the victim of some bad decisions by Peioria’s infield and by Thepstien. I still think he’ll be a quality LOOGY at the ML level someday.

The money matters less than the structure of the contract. I don’t think this raw “kid” should have to be in the majors in 4 years or take up a 40-man roster spot. I do think 30+ Million is way too much, but I’m more worried about the spot, or losing him after his first season.

Secondly, Thepstien is giving up an extra year of contract by starting Concepcion full season. Do you really think they’re going to let Soler start in short-season or rookie ball?

He’s not even a month younger. Concepcion was born 2-1-92 and Soler was born 2-25-92. At least Concepcion played professional ball. Soler never has. I said when the rumors first started that I wouldn’t give either of them a million bucks and the idea of either of them getting MLB contracts is laughable. They should just give me one. It will prove to be as worthy as giving either of them one.

@ mb21:
For some reason I thought Soler was only 18 or 19 and Concepcion was 23 or 24. So much for my memory. (dying laughing) I still don’t mind the Cubs tossing some money around the last year they have the chance to do it.

We could break it down a lot of ways to make it look better than it is, but he’s been terrible so far. He’s even been worse than I expected him to be. I was expected 4.5ish FIP in the low minors. He’s walking more than he strikes out. Even Koyie Hill could go 3-3 against him.

@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’d much rather they throw that $30 million at Josh Hamilton, Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke. I’d rather they throw it at Ryan Theriot, Koyie HIll, John Grabow and Neifi Perez too.

If you can get Soler for $5 million or less, fine. Go for it. It’s silly, but it’s not ridiculous.

Is it possible the Cubs enter the bidding just to drive up the price for someone else? I realize that’s a dangerous game, but perhaps you win the deal by hamstringing your competitor rather than by signing Soler.

So not even in the top 5 now. And scanning the list, the next game with 5 baserunners was number 12, then number 20. No-hits counts for more than no walks as hits are weighted at twice the value of walks. Suppose that kind of makes sense if the hits are extra bases. OTOH, a single with no one on is the same as a walk, no?

@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I really think the Cubs want him and I think it has more to do with the new rules than anything else. I think this front office was taken by surprise at the new rules and they’re overreacting to it by signing anyone and everyone to MLB contracts for shitloads of money.

You sign a kid from the Dominican for $2 million and it’s a lot of money and a huge risk. More likely than not you get nothing in return. At what point do you say the risk isn’t worth it? $3 million? Obviously there’s a limit because we’ve never seen Dominican kids signing for the kind of money Soler is going to get. So why is the limit different? Why have they decided spending X amount for a Dominican is crazy stupid, but they haven’t for this guy?

I don’t give a shit about the circumstances. This is a guy with no professional experience, he’s 20 years old, and if some other team or teams want to get retarded with their offers let them. Just maybe they get lucky. More than likely they’re going to look as dumb as they do now.

We saw what Cubs fans thought about the HUGE contract given to Milton Bradley. At least Bradley was somewhat of a competent player at the MLB level. This guy will be playing in the low minors.

I would much rather lock Starlin Castro or Matt Garza up than this shit.

I agree with you about Soler. I think Concepcion should’ve been handled differently, especially given his questionable status as a starter. There is no reason to have him start at Peoria. He needed to start in Low-A or Rookie league until he got that changeup down location wise. You can’t start with two plus pitches.

Geraldo, despite being in pro ball, was considered very raw. I think eventually he works out. Looking at his stats, he seems to have a large amount of unearned runs in several starts where he gets shelled. This has to effect the psyche of a pitcher.

I still think he’ll be an equal return investment when all is said and done. This was a severely bad idea to handle him the way he was. I think it would’ve been best to have him start out as a reliever in Boise, let him build up confidence, improve his pitches, and then move him to Peoria next year.

Did I mention that Peoria means that Thepstien is giving up a year of ML control on Concepcion? Soler is a horrible idea, and this front office has shown it doesn’t know how to handle really raw prospects.

I still think he’ll be an equal return investment when all is said and done.

That depends. $7 million for an amateur player is the same as an elite first round draft pick. Not a Strasburg or Harper, but the next tier of talent. I don’t see that there’s any chance he becomes as good as those types of prospects become. He’s just so far away from the big leagues that you’re better off saying only one thing about his future: we’ll probably never see him at the big league level. This is true for anyone in Low A. It’s especially true for someone who is sucking in Low A. He doesn’t strike enough batters out and doesn’t have the control to be an effective reliever either.

This is one really bad example. Then again, we’re making these judgements off one month of K/BB rating. If you take out his first two starts, Geraldo Concepcion is close to league-average.

The snag here is what seems to be ignorance of the scouting reports on a given player. I feel what I read on Concepcion would mean he was a fringe-starter at any MiLB level right now and a possible starter in MLB down the road. The difference here is less class but role.

IE, it was feasible to fast-track Concepcion, but it wasn’t feasible to fast-track Concepcion as a starter. The third pitch wasn’t there, would not be there without a season of work, the scouts told them so.The clear problem was that Concepcion couldn’t control his change up. This is such an obvious red flag for a starter. Less so if you try to make him a reliever.

So this was to be entirely expected. I think he could be a one-out reliver next year in Double-AA if they so choose. I think he pans out as a Lefty One Out GuY very well but he won’t be that #4/#5 starter if he can’t locate his change-up.

Remember, Geraldo was in extended spring training and ARI Fall league. There were rumblings he would debut as high as AA. Jorge soler is several times more expensive and twice as raw. He has a much higher cieling, but who knows where the pogo stick starts and when he hits it.

He has been suprisingly competent given the circumstances especially if you ignore his first two starts. I don’t think there is any reason to chalk him down as a failure just yet. I do think that Jorge Soler needs to be monitored carefully.

@ mb21:
If we get two years of +relief out of him, that would be about what such a reliever would cost on the free-agent market. It’s difficult to predict right now. He did pitch well under pressure at a young age and at Low-A is improving despite having difficult circumstances. I really think he is released/resigns for a chunk less at the end of his first contract.

The report on him is what we need to look at. Are those walks due to the developing change-up that he just added to his repritoire?

Only about half the runs allowed by Concepcion are Earned. If you look at his really bad starts, he seems to give up several unearned runs very early on.

Soler’s agent, Bart Hernandez of the Praver Shapiro Sports Management group, still must produce an unblocking license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) or two permanent residency documents from a new country before any deal can be consummated. However, typically when MLB sends out a memo declaring a Cuban player a free agent, full clearance usually isn’t far away, at least among recent notable Cuban defectors.
…
Many teams believe that Soler already has a deal done, which would make most of this process no more than scripted theater, although doing so would be both a violation of MLB rules and U.S. federal law.

He’s been quite a bit worse than the league average starter even if we take away those first two starts. He’s allowed 3 runs more per 9 than the league has. He’s allowed more than a run a half more per 9 in FIP. That’s BAD.

Players in that “next tier”, those in the mid-first round, do not pan out anyway. That is a risk you take with young talent.

I’m not talking mid-first round. I’m talking about guys who are usually the number 1 overall pick in years when Harper and Strasburg aren’t around. I’m talking about the very best in the draft minus a couple freak of nature prospects like Harper and Strasburg.

“The number one thing you take away is some genius architect in 1914 laid out this park and it’s still the best place to watch baseball,” he said. “We’re not going to fix what isn’t broken. When someone gets to Wrigley Field and they get in their seat and they look out the field, and the ivy, and the scoreboard, they’re in their happy place. This is where they want to be. This is where they want to watch baseball.”

So I’m in Washington D.C. and I’m apparently blacked out from watching the Cubs play in California, even though that neither the Nationals nor the Orioles are playing. (I’m assuming I’m supposed to be watching them instead.)

@ Berselius:
As I mentioned, I don’t care about how the circumstances are different. It doesn’t justify spending that much more money. If you want to compare it to something similar, I already compared it to the international free agents in Latin America. Nobody comes close to getting the money that Concepcion did.

Nowadays, Votto towers over the league like a giant towering thing, but as recently as 2010, he was less famous than Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder. He only made it to the ASG by that Final Vote thing (which probably helped him get more well-known).

@ ACT:
Doesn’t hurt that most of those guys are now in the AL. I was going to say A-Gonz fell off the map, but I was just looking and he actually has been maintaining a solid performance for the Red Sox. Perhaps being on the Padres has a way of making solid performance look amazing.

@ josh:
The DH rule kind of gives the AL a big advantage when it comes to signing first basemen to long-term deals (that is, they have an option when they are no longer able to play the field, so it’s less of a risk).

Anyway, Twitter is buzzing about how Baez swung 3-0 with a 13-run lead and got plunked on the next pitch. The manager even visited the mound to tell the pitcher to hit him (both manager and pitcher were ejected).

@ ACT:
yeah, but he hasn’t been as good this year as the last two years: FIP is one run higher, ERA is two runs higher, 2:1 K:BB from last year is more like 1:1 this year, BABIP is up, K/9 down to 7.5 from 8.5, while BB/9 is up to 5.75 (!).

I think closers that walk people have a much shorter leash when they have poor streaks than closers that give up runs on hits.

yeah, but he hasn’t been as good this year as the last two years: FIP is one run higher, ERA is two runs higher, 2:1 K:BB from last year is more like 1:1 this year, BABIP is up, K/9 down to 7.5 from 8.5, while BB/9 is up to 5.75 (!).

Yes, but all in the number of innings a typical starter throws in about 3 weeks. All starters have bad months an no one thinks twice about it.