The latest on California politics and government

April 15, 2011

A Washington Post blog has included California Reps. Jerry McNerney, D-Pleasanton, and David Dreier, R-San Dimas, on its list of ten congressional incumbents likely to lose out in the decennial redistricting process.

The effect redistricting in California will have on 2012 match-ups is especially hard to predict this year, as an independent Citizens Redistricting Commission has for the first time been assigned the task of redrawing of district lines to reflect population shifts. Here's what The Fix's Aaron Blake had to say about the two California representatives on the "likely redistricting victims" list:

10. Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.): McNerney is the only member in California's entire 53-person delegation to win a seat from the other party over the last decade. He was able to hold that GOP-leaning district in 2010 because of its tiny arm reaching up into Alameda and Contra Costa counties in the San Francisco Bay area. McNerney lives on that arm. The problem for him is that redistricting is now in the hands of a citizen's commission, and many people think the commission will have no regard for incumbents' residences. The fact that McNerney is from an extreme part of his district -- not to mention less than 10 miles from Rep. Pete Stark's (D) hometown -- means he's unlikely to live in his own home district. And in a primary against a longtime member like Stark, he'd be an underdog.

6. Rep. David Dreier (R-Calif.): Dreier got lucky 10 years ago, when a deal was cut to keep him safe for the next decade. After a decade's worth of demographic changes, though, it will be tough to keep his district even slightly friendly to a Republican -- even if the citizen line-drawers were looking out for Dreier (which they probably won't be). His current district is now more than 50 percent black and Hispanic, it voted for Obama in 2008, and he lives just a few miles from fellow GOP Rep. Gary Miller (R). Smart California observers suggest Dreier may face a primary with either Miller or Rep. Jerry Lewis (R), either of which would probably be in unfriendly territory for Dreier.