Obradovich: Crowd forms in the race for governor

Jul. 13, 2013
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The Iowa governor’s race hasn’t gelled, exactly, but it’s gotten much thicker in the past week.

Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican, still hasn’t announced he is running, but that hasn’t slowed him down from organizing a campaign. He announced last week that his campaign has $2 million in the bank, which says plenty about his intentions. He also has shifted some staff from his Statehouse office to the campaign and hired Mitt Romney’s 2012 Iowa caucus field director.

It’s one thing to play coy for the media, but it’s another thing entirely to bait-and-switch campaign donors and hired staff. Branstad’s gone beyond keeping his options open and has reached the point of no return if he’s dealing with them in good faith.

The Democratic field expanded with the addition of state Rep. Tyler Olson of Cedar Rapids. Unlike the other two Democrats who have opened campaign committees, Sen. Jack Hatch and veterans’ advocate Robert Krause, Olson isn’t a member of the explorer’s club. “I’m running,” he said Tuesday.

Olson, 37, is the youngest candidate in the race and will have to demonstrate he’s competent in the face of far greater experience. He’s no featherweight, however. He’s serving his fourth term in the Legislature. He’s a lawyer, and he’s vice president of his family’s electrical contracting business. He briefly served as chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party.

He’s positioning himself as a new-generation leader, with emphasis on preparing Iowa’s economy for a future of ever-accelerating technological change. He argues that Iowans need a change from the “leadership of the past 30 years,” essentially lumping together Branstad’s tenure and that of Hatch.

He’s from Cedar Rapids, which could be an advantage. Based on the multitude of Democrats in the hunt for the 1st Congressional District nomination, he could benefit from higher-than-average primary turnout in his home turf. Both Hatch and Krause live in Des Moines, and the capital city’s not particularly popular in all corners of the state.

Hatch, 63, is a real estate developer and has served in the Legislature for over 28 years. He said last week that he’s still “exploring” a run. Sometimes, that’s just a campaign device aimed at preserving interest for a big “announcement” in a few months. In Hatch’s case, though, it feels more like he’s reserving the option to jump out of the pond if the water’s too cold or a bigger fish starts making a splash.

Hatch’s political experience shows. He’s poised and confident in front of the media, while Olson was clearly nervous as he read his campaign statement last week. Hatch is a longtime policy wonk, with an in-depth grasp of the details on a variety of issues. Most recently, he’s been directly involved on both the state and federal level with the Affordable Care Act and the state’s redesign of mental health services.

The flip side of experience is baggage. Obamacare is still popular among Democrats and that may help Hatch in the June 2014 primary. Independents, however, have had a love-hate relationship with the law, supporting key provisions but opposing it generally. That could hurt in the general election — something Democrats may keep in mind when they choose a primary candidate.

Bob Krause, also 63, has also announced he is exploring a campaign. His most recent bid for office was for U.S. Senate in 2010, when he lost to Roxanne Conlin in a three-way Democratic primary. He raised about $24,000 for that race to Conlin’s $3.1 million. That’s one indication he has a hurdle to clear to be seen as a viable candidate. But when it comes to name recognition, he’s in the same tiny boat as his Democratic opponents.

There are still some bigger fish out there.

Neither former Gov. Chet Culver nor Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal have ruled out a run. Gronstal could be the third 63-year-old to join the race, but he has a higher profile than Hatch, and he’s from Council Bluffs. And nobody — not even Branstad — has bigger luggage than the “Big Lug.”

Either of them might gel the race — but neither is freezing the field.