Mega-projecting the outfield

Part two of our preview of the Angels' roster by combining every respectable projection system into one mega-projection for each player. We went over the infield yesterday.

RF: Vladimir Guerrero

System

Avg

OBP

Slg

Pecota

0.296

0.351

0.478

Bill James

0.314

0.386

0.536

CHONE

0.305

0.377

0.519

Marcel

0.302

0.369

0.508

Oliver

0.311

0.357

0.535

ZiPS

0.305

0.372

0.504

Mega-projection: .306/.369/.513

Guerrero's 2008 was a fine year by most standards, but it marked new career lows for Vlad in all three slash stats. The projections don't know whether Guerrero had a simple down year, or whether he's slip sliding away, so they punted: That mega-projection is almost a dead ringer for 2008, with a shade more patience and less power. The Oliver line is interesting: It would mean the lowest walk rate for Guerrero since he was 22. Now, that could certainly happen if pitchers quit fearing Guerrero's mighty hack, but the Oliver also is the outlier (in a good way) for Guerrero's continued slugging, so go figure. And, of course, PECOTA's I Will Stomp On All Your Hopes And Dreams 2009 World Tour continues it's multi-night run in Anaheim.

CF: Torii Hunter

System

Avg

OBP

Slg

Pecota

0.274

0.33

0.447

Bill James

0.268

0.329

0.46

CHONE

0.275

0.337

0.464

Marcel

0.272

0.332

0.467

Oliver

0.27

0.322

0.463

ZiPS

0.278

0.337

0.468

Mega-projection: .273/.331/.462

The systems obviously got together to talk this one out, as just one projection in one category varies by more than 10 points from the mean. That mega-projection would actually cost Hunter nearly a half win's worth of hitting value from last year, putting more pressure on his glove in center field. For fun, CHONE's best-case projection for Hunter: .303/.371/.539, with 30 home runs. Combine that with a division title and a big home run or two down the stretch and he'd get some MVP votes.

LF/DH: Bobby Abreu

System

Avg

OBP

Slg

Pecota

0.282

0.368

0.436

Bill James

0.295

0.394

0.452

CHONE

0.271

0.371

0.413

Marcel

0.28

0.37

0.44

Oliver

0.284

0.376

0.456

ZiPS

0.282

0.375

0.442

Mega-projection: .282/.376/.440

The average and OBP are right in line with the modern Bobby Abreu, but those lackluster power numbers would be brutal. Abreu has outslugged that projection every year of his career, and is coming off a season where he pushed his power output to 2005 levels. He's lost some speed but it hasn't affected his doubles; he's cut back his strikeouts and it hasn't affected his homers. Age is the obvious risk here, but I'm calling these projections out: Knock off the negativity, you lousy computers!

LF/DH: Juan Rivera

System

Avg

OBP

Slg

Pecota

0.266

0.318

0.432

Bill James

0.282

0.329

0.472

CHONE

0.272

0.323

0.459

Marcel

0.272

0.323

0.450

Oliver

0.275

0.319

0.458

ZiPS

0.268

0.313

0.446

Mega-projection: .273/.321/.453

Rivera only offers a bat, and if he's hitting to that mega-projection he won't offer much of one. Twenty-some walks and 15 homers from a left-fielder is hardly worth a three-year contract. And yet ... it's hard to be so pessimistic about a guy who, when healthy, has always hit the ball so hard. Large chunks of missed playing time can quirk up projections, but large chunks of missed playing time can also quirk up a career, so go with your gut on this one.

OF: Gary Matthews, Jr.

System

Avg

OBP

Slg

Pecota

0.265

0.336

0.395

Bill James

0.255

0.331

0.394

CHONE

0.254

0.328

0.396

Marcel

0.259

0.329

0.408

Oliver

0.258

0.323

0.409

ZiPS

0.268

0.340

0.409

Mega-projection: .260/.331/.402

The out-of-nowhere factor, the ball park, the HGH -- there were lots of reasons to doubt GMJ's ability to repeat 2006. But overlooked was that his career season was driven mostly by an absurd batting average on balls in play. He hit .340 on such balls that year, compared to .280 combined in 2005, 2007 and 2008. Without the batting average, he has no value as a hitter, and without crazy fluke luck he has no batting average.

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