How 25% Wins an Election Majority

By Eleanor Warnock and Toko Sekiguchi

Recent polls show Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party with a 25% support rate in the proportional representation portion ahead of Sunday’s election. Other reports say the party is likely to win a solid majority of seats in the lower house, making it easier to pass the legislation it wants.

Shohei Miyano/Reuters

A man riding a motorbike waved to the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party’s leader and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, third right atop truck, during a campaign rally for the December 16 lower house election in Ageo, north of Tokyo, on Dec. 11.

If both are to be believed, when did 25% become a resounding majority?

That’s because Japanese voters place two votes in the polls, one for a single candidate in their single-member district, that ultimately decides 300 seats, and one for a party in a larger proportional representation portion, that decides 180 seats. Though only one candidate wins in each single-member district, proportional representation results divvy seats out to candidates based on the vote percentages.

The LDP is fielding candidates in nearly all of the single-member districts where other, smaller parties may not have a candidate on the ballot, so supporters of smaller parties may have little choice for which they vote in the single-member district. Moreover, because of the number of parties competing in this general election—a record high of 12—the top candidate needs only a small lead over the runner-up to win the entire district.

“In 60-odd (single-member) districts, the choices are the LDP, the DPJ and the Communists, and the Communists are not going to win,” said Steven Reed, a Chuo University political science professor, leaving voters who may support a smaller party with fewer choices.

“In the end it goes back to who has the strongest organization in that district. If swing vote is all divided up among five different parties, then it’s the strongest organization that wins and that’s the LDP,” he said.

Some critics of the winner-take-all single-representation districts say that Japan should return to the multiple-seat constituency system that was thrown out in the mid-90s to better represent the smaller parties. In it, candidates from the same party competed amongst one another, perpetuating the politics of party infighting where elections were fought not along policy lines, but between individuals and factional loyalties.

Single-seat zoning was introduced in an attempt to shift elections from LDP’s internal bickering to building a two-party system where voters chose from the top two or three candidates based on issues and policy platforms. But in a contest with so many parties, a slight lead by the top candidate determines the winner, discouraging voters who don’t support the top runner from voting altogether.

But others say it’s too early to give up on the single-seat system. “It’s important to note that such a crowded contest is likely an anomaly. In recent elections, we’re seeing the beginning of a two-party system with the power of government going back and forth,” said political science associate professor Yukio Maeda at the University of Tokyo.

“The LDP may win big this time, but the DPJ can remain a viable alternative in the near future if it matures as a party,” he said. “The current election system allows for it.”

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