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Friday, February 19, 2010

Feb 19: Another Possible Storm Late Next Week

Verification For Thursday: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. NYC did not make it to the mid 40s, but the temperatures were still in the range.Score: 4/4

Verification For Thursday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. I was too cold with the lows, as the cloud cover was still cloudy, which prevented temperatures from going cold.Score: 2/4

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Mild Conditions Continue

It will continue to be mild, with temperatures still generally in the lower to occasionally mid 40s, and in the upper 30s for the northwestern parts of the area. Conditions are expected to remain dry this weekend, with cloud cover being partly sunny.

Wintry Mix And Rain For Monday Night to Tuesday

The next storm to impact the area will approach during Monday, and affect us between Monday night and Tuesday. My thoughts are similar to yesterday, though in my update tomorrow, I am planning on possibly extending the mix zones slightly further north, up to south-central New York, northern Pennsylvania, all of Massachusetts, and the southern 1/3rd of New Hampshire, mainly because the primary storm might be slightly further north and warmer than I am expecting it to be.

Below is what my current thinking is for the timing of the storm and precipitation types. **All of this is still subject to change.**

Going according to my current thinking, I would expect Monday afternoon to bring increasing clouds to the area, with precipitation starting during the overnight hours. Light snow should start in northern NJ, a wintry mix for central New Jerseyand Philadelphia, and light rain for southern New Jersey and Long Island.

A few hours after the precipitation starting, Philadelphia and central New Jersey should change over to mainly rain, along with Long Island. A wintry mix with some rain then falls in New York City, with an intensifying wet snow/occasional rain for most of northern New Jersey. As the secondary storm develops and hugs the coast, the rest of the area except for southeast interior New York, far northwestern New Jersey and northern Connecticut change over to rain, which could be moderate to occasionally heavy. In the areas that I mentioned above that should not get into the plain rain zone, a wintry mix should fall, and while rain should occasionally mix there, I don't expect it to be the dominant precipitation type.

What I mentioned above is only my current thinking, and as I said, is still subject to change. We could see a slightly further south solution, where we see more mixing and not as much rain, or a further north solution, where we get a brief mix to rain. I am planning on making a more detailed precipitation type map and a snow accumulation map tomorrow.

Another Possible Storm Late Next WeekJust after we get a storm early next week, yet another storm appears to possibly affect the area late next week. After Tuesday's storm moves through, we will have colder conditions in place, however the storm from Tuesday will pull in enough warm air so that places such as eastern New England have yet to be affected by these colder conditions. Another storm is then shown on the models, however this appears to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the southern states this time, instead of going up the Ohio Valley with a secondary low forming.

While the models have yet to find a more common solution on this storm, I do think that this storm should be colder than Tuesday's storm, and it may bring snow to some places that will see a mix/rain with the storm early next week, though it is still too early to know where that will be. Stay tuned for more updates.

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