If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

DMW's Over/Under Game

08-13-2008, 05:07 PM

I had this idea a few days ago, and if people like it then we can make a real go of it and maybe a Mod could even sticky it.

But here it is: Every week from now until the beggining of the season, I propose 5 questions of over/under. These aren't just random questions, but questions that deal with the biggest stories of the upcoming season. For example, I would say "Over/Under: Total Patriot wins". The posters on the site would then come in and suggest what the over/under should be set at. At the end of the week, I sort through the responses, calculate the consensus and post the over/under. 4 Weeks, 5 questions per week is 20 total Over/Under questions.

At this point, everyone who wants to play submits their picks and at the end of the season we tally the results and find a winner. Finally, there would be a Wild Card question to break any ties. One that would involve picking something like the exact number of passing yards that Brady has for the year or something of that nature so that we could be assured that no tie would happen. At the end of the year, we tally the results and the winner is dubbed the resident Swami of NFLDC (Hopefully one of our creative mod friends could produce a cool looking sig for the winner to use for the following calendar year).

So what do you think? Likey? If it is a hit, we could even make it an annual event!

Now remember, we're trying to find the one number that would make it the hardest to chose over or under on. So if you're a Giants fan and you think your team is getting 60 sacks this year, that doesn't mean set the bar at 59 1/2. Rather, it means pick the one number that you feel will make it hardest for John Doe to choose between the over and the under on.

(note: must use 1/2 in all answers to ensure a clean win/loss)

My take:

1. The Pats might be the biggest story coming in, and I'll likely add another question or two about them later on. What can you do after a 16-0 season? Be perfect again? Not likely, but then nobody could believe their eyes last year, either. After some key defections, and with the age at other spots on the team, they should take a step back, but how far back? I'm thinking the line should be set at 12 1/2.

2. What is going to happen with Ryan? Last year's top QB, Russell didn't get a start until week 17 (mainly due to holdout), and Quinn didn't get in at all. All reports remain positive, though. This one could fluctuate wildly, and I really am taking a shot in the dark here, so I'll go 8 1/2. Even if he's named the season opening starter, there's an excellent chance he is injured (with that porous Oline they have in front of him) or yanked due to struggles. I reserve the right to change my pick, though, until the deadline.

3. Strahan retiring on a high note was a great story. This team is still replete with pass rushers, though. After leading the league with 53 last season, where will they go from here? Giants fans expect no letdown, though most believe they will take at least a small step back. I'm going 46 1/2 here.

4. Rodgers is a great unknown. He looked very good in his one stretch of significant playing time last year, and he has a good pedigree, being taught by a QB guru in college, and coming in as a 1st round pick with an organization that has had a good run of success in developing QBs. This could be wild. I'm setting it at 86.5

5. Is there one single player that people are more psyched to see than AD? In my main fantasy league, which features keepers using draft picks as contracts, I locked him up at 5th round value for the next 4 years. WHOOOHOOO! After what he showed last year, anything is possible, though injuries are a concern. I'm setting the bar for this year at 1725 1/2.

Finally, lets try to keep this organized, so keep the debating to a minimum on this thread. If something comes up, create another thread for it or do your stuff via PM. Also, please no calling out ideas for questions. If you would like to make a suggestion, I would love input, but please use PMing to do so.

Hopefully everyone likes this idea and we can get some good competition going. Have fun!

Originally posted by 21ST

He was protecting his self

Originally posted by tjsunstein

From what? His leg?

Originally posted by Paranoidmoonduck

That leg has had it out for him since day 1.

"We're the quiet guys, the guys before the storm. And then we hit you."

Comment

Just to clarify, first we're setting the over/under as an entire forum. THEN at the end of that process, we make our picks. So you need to decide what you think the over/under should be on each of those five questions, NOT respond to where I think it should be.

Clear?

Originally posted by 21ST

He was protecting his self

Originally posted by tjsunstein

From what? His leg?

Originally posted by Paranoidmoonduck

That leg has had it out for him since day 1.

"We're the quiet guys, the guys before the storm. And then we hit you."

Comment

EDIT: 1. I think that 12.5 is a pretty solid place. 11.5 is too low while 13.5 sets the bar too high.

2. With everything pointing towards Ryan winning the starting job, I think this one up around 11.5 would be more appropriate. I mean, its not like they have so many better options at this point. Joey Harrington?

3. With the loss of Strahan I think that this is a fair number to set it at. Less than last year, but still an impressive number.

4. I think that this is a fair number to set it at. With his experience in the offense, it is understood that to be a success he should put up pretty good numbers, but that doesn't mean that he will have his fair share of difficulties along the way. In all reality, he hasn't really done much against NFL defenses besides the Packers defense in practice.

5. I think that this might be a little lower, but that may be just because I don't think he'll get to this kind of yardage. That's mostly because I don't expect him to play the entire year because of injuries.

Well, I think that's it for me, and great idea. This should be a good thread.

Comment

1. Patriot victoriesLine: 12.5Pick: Under (11-12)Reason: They lost pieces on offense, their key players are older on defense, and they have secondary issues. I'm not going under by much, I say they win 11-12 and the AFC East.

2. Games started for Matt RyanLine: 8.5Pick: Over (16)Reason: Matt Ryan is going to start from Opening Day, because the Falcons have nothing better at QB, and nothing to lose after a 4-12 season where everything went wrong. Watching him the other day (it is preseason, but still), he seemed to have the poise and pocket presence to have a decent rookie year.

3. NYG team sacksLine: 46.5Pick: Under (40-45)Reason: This is an excellent line. They were a good pass rushing team last year, and with Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator, they should still get a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. That said, the line is near 3 sacks per game, and while they were over that last season, that type of team performance is difficult to repeat, especially when you lose a pass rusher like Michael Strahan, which is why I went under at 40-45.

4. Aaron Rodger's season passer ratingLine: 86.5Pick: Over (90+)Reason: Call me a believer. I think that with three years under his belt in this system, and the type of offense he's inherited, Aaron Rodgers is going to put up solid numbers and be in the top 10 of NFL QBs in production.

5. Adrian Peterson yards rushingLine: 1725.5Pick: Under (1400-1500)Reason: Adrian Peterson is an elite NFL talent running behind a good-great offensive line...which is why he's going to see 8 or 9 in the box all year, or at least until Tavaris Jackson can make teams back off a little. That, combined with the fact that nobody got over 1500 yards last year, leads me to believe that Peterson will get nowhere close to the line, probably somewhere between 1400-1500 yards at best.

The problem arises when people use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support instead of illumination.

If luck is where preparation meets opportunity, then clutch is where failure meets luck.

<Add1ct> setting myself on fire can't be that hard
<Add1ct> but tackling a mosquito might prove a challenge

Comment

1. Patriots wins 12.5 games Over (13-14)
The way the Pats lost last year, they want to win more than any other team in the league. They got humiliated in the SB just by losing and not completing the perfect season. Asante Samuel is a huge loss but they're still talented enough to win 13 games. They're preparation and concentration will be paramount and I have no doubt that they'll take one game at a time in trying to revenge their historic loss.

2. Matt Ryans starts 8.5 games Under (5-6)
-In short Redman will do a good but not great job at QB for the first 10 or so weeks

3. NYG team sacks 46.5 Under (37-42)
-More attention will be paid to their d-line this year limiting sacks and with the loss of Strahan = less sacks

4. Aaron Rodgers passer rating 86.5 Over (88-90)
-IMO he's underrated and even though he can still have a good year and go under the line, he has lots of help from the Packers good offense to go over the number.

5. Adrian Peterson rushes for 1725.5 yards Under (1500-1600)
Minnesota will be smart enough not to ruin his career and give him too many carries, ex- Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson. They'll be smart enough to mix in Chester as much as possible. And AD has a pretty high injury risk, which will not allow him to play all 16 games.

Comment

I had this idea a few days ago, and if people like it then we can make a real go of it and maybe a Mod could even sticky it.

But here it is: Every week from now until the beggining of the season, I propose 5 questions of over/under. These aren't just random questions, but questions that deal with the biggest stories of the upcoming season. For example, I would say "Over/Under: Total Patriot wins". The posters on the site would then come in and suggest what the over/under should be set at. At the end of the week, I sort through the responses, calculate the consensus and post the over/under. 4 Weeks, 5 questions per week is 20 total Over/Under questions.

At this point, everyone who wants to play submits their picks and at the end of the season we tally the results and find a winner. Finally, there would be a Wild Card question to break any ties. One that would involve picking something like the exact number of passing yards that Brady has for the year or something of that nature so that we could be assured that no tie would happen. At the end of the year, we tally the results and the winner is dubbed the resident Swami of NFLDC (Hopefully one of our creative mod friends could produce a cool looking sig for the winner to use for the following calendar year).

So what do you think? Likey? If it is a hit, we could even make it an annual event!

Comment

Line for win total of NFC South winner - 10
The NFC South winner has been a 10 win team for the past 2 seasons.

Line for Randy Moss TDs - 15.5
He's not going to repeat that season, it's rare for a receiver to even score 17 in a season. But, he is Randy Moss.

Line for Kyle Orton starts - 9
The Bears favor Orton now, saying that any ties go to him. That said, if he struggles, the Bears probably wouldn't hesitate very long to pull him.

Line for Julius Jones rushing yards - 950
They'll be splitting carries in Seattle, but Jones is likely to get the bigger share being the starter. Will he get to 1000 yards?

Line for Jared Allen sacks - 13.5
He put up 15.5 sacks last year for the first time in his career, before that, he'd never gone over 11. Being the Vikings' best pass rush threat, he's probably going to see double teams on every passing play.

The problem arises when people use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support instead of illumination.

If luck is where preparation meets opportunity, then clutch is where failure meets luck.

<Add1ct> setting myself on fire can't be that hard
<Add1ct> but tackling a mosquito might prove a challenge