Sides should rise to the 70-80% range, and Totals should rise as well (not quite as sure of the range), at a significantly high confidence level.

Week 15 Final Card:

2** Miami -7

2** Carolina +3 (-115)

Detroit -6

Pittsburgh -1.5

San Francisco +5.5

Tampa Bay +3.5

Chicago +3

2** Jacksonville/Miami Under 37.5

*Disclaimer: the only one that isn't a true system play is Chicago. It would be at +3.5 but doesn't quite make the cut at +3. However, it's so close to being a play, that I'm playing it as if it were. Tampa Bay would not be a play at less than 3.5, And Detroit and Miami wouldn't be plays above 7.

Slight lean on Philly, as they should be able to run the ball without much problem. This should keep the score lower and the turnovers down. Could go either way though, I think the number at 4 is dead on. Good luck this week.

My plays are made based on the stats that generate these projections, not the projections themselves. I don't bet simply based on these projections, they are just interesting and helpful tools in my opinion. As I said last week, sometimes the game flow will lead to anomalous outcomes, as the projections are based on averages across the underlying stats. Most of the time, game flow will be near enough to the projected values that the projections will be fairly accurate. Sometimes, it won't. Adding up across the stat projections will prove inaccurate in these occurrences. The underlying stats are better predictors of this, and that's why they're used by the system instead of the projections.

Question: How are your totals determined as plays? Seems like the total on the Jags/Phins game is cutting it close...

Thoughts?

Totals, like side plays, are based on the underlying projected stats. The difference is that over/unders must be a point or more off of the total to be a play. For sides, I don't have this rule. I expect the Jags to have a very difficult time moving the ball in this one. The only thing worrying me here is turnovers for the Jags on strip sacks.

**I said projections had to be a point better than totals to be plays - the actual score projection for the Jags/Dolphins game is 7.74 to 28.68