Dow tumbled Wed on the concern of lingering lockdown amid Trump's warning of a horrible corona situation in the U.S.; Dow surged Thu on higher oil after Trump's jawboning

Dow tumbled Wednesday on the concern of lingering lockdown amid Trump’s warning of a horrible corona situation in the U.S. In early Wednesday, Dow Future plunged almost -900 points on escalating corona cases in the NY and also rest of the U.S. coupled with a warning from Trump that next two weeks may be extremely painful, while his COVID-19 taskforce team estimated 240K corona deaths if the U.S. Federal/State governments do not take strong mitigation measures like enforcing total lockdown. As a result, there was renewed selling in risk assets.

I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We’re going to go through a very tough two weeks. And then, hopefully, as the experts are predicting, as I think a lot of us are predicting, after having studied it so hard, you’re going to start seeing some real light at the end of the tunnel. But this is going to be a very painful — a very, very painful two weeks.

Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you. So, America continues to wage all-out war to defeat the virus — this horrible, horrible virus. You see how terrible it is, especially when you look at the numbers from yesterday. And we explained why we’re extending our nationwide guidelines to slow the spread by 30 days.

Together, we have the power to save countless lives. We’re attacking the virus on every front with social distancing, economic support for our workers, rapid medical intervention, and very serious innovation, and banning dangerous foreign travel that threatens the health of our people. And we did that early — far earlier than anyone would have thought and way ahead of anybody else.

In this time of need, I know that every American will do their patriotic duty and help us to achieve a total victory. As governments and nations focus on the coronavirus, there’s a growing threat that cartels, criminals, terrorists, and other malign actors will try to exploit the situation for their own gain. And we must not let that happen. We will never let that happen. Today, the United States is launching enhanced counter-narcotics operations in the Western Hemisphere to protect the American people from the deadly scourge of illegal narcotics. We must not let the drug cartels exploit the pandemic to threaten American lives.

In cooperation with the 22 partner nations, U.S. Southern Command will increase surveillance, disruption, and seizures of drug shipments and provide additional support for eradication efforts that are going on right now at a record pace. We’re deploying additional Navy destroyers, combat ships, aircraft, and helicopters; Coast Guard cutters; and Air Force surveillance aircraft, doubling our capabilities in the region. Very importantly, our forces are fully equipped with personnel protective equipment, and we’ve taken additional safety measures to ensure our troops remain healthy.

Secretary Mark Esper, Attorney General Bill Barr, National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien will provide more details. In addition, I’m going to have General Milley, who has done an incredible job in so many ways, say a few words. And also with us: our Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gilday, who you know — I think you know; and Commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Schultz.

So I’m going to ask Mark to start and then we can go. And after that, we’re going to take questions as it pertains to this. And then we’ll go onto phase two, which is the virus itself. Okay?

In the subsequent Q&A session, Trump and Ambassador O’Brien were asked about the reported U.S. intelligence news that China may have fudged its corona data significantly. Both O’Brien and Trump downplayed the report and emphasized on ‘good relationship’ with China.

O’Brien

Well, number one, I think the President has a great relationship with President Xi. And we’d like to have a great relationship with China. Unfortunately, we are just not in a position to confirm any of the numbers that are coming out of China. There’s no way to confirm any of those numbers. There’s lots of public reporting on whether the numbers are — are too low. You’ve got access to those reports that are coming out of the Chinese social media and — and some of the few reporters that are left in China. We just have no way to confirm any of those numbers. Thank you.

Trump said he is not bothered about any fake number from China as long as they are cooperating on COVID-19 (genome) data and on Phase one trade deal. Trump also pointed out that he is not an ‘accountant’ of China, accounting for their COVID-19 data and Trump also trashed the gossip of ‘virus conspiracy’ theory that it was man-made. Trump said:

We really don’t know. I mean, yeah — look, how do we know whether if they underreported or reported however they report? But we had a great call the other night. We’re working together on a lot of different things, including trade. They’re buying a lot. They’re spending a lot of money and they’re giving it to our farmers. They’re paying our farmers for the product. So, you know, we’re going to — we’re going to continue that along.

We have not received that (Intelligence report on China corona death numbers). But their numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side. And I’m being nice when I say that, relative to what we witnessed and what was reported. But we discussed that with him (Xi) — not so much the numbers, as what they did and how they’re doing. And we’re in constant communication with — I mean, I would say the biggest communication is myself and President Xi. The relationship is very good.

We have — look, they’re spending — they will be spending when things even out — this is obviously a little bit of a hurdle, what’s happened over the last month. But they’ll be spending $250 billion, buying our product: $50 billion to the farmers alone, $200 billion to other things. They never did that before. So we have a great trade deal. And we’d like to keep it, they’d like to keep it, and the relationship is good. As to whether or not their numbers are accurate, I’m not an accountant from China.

No (in terms of any strain in trade deal)--- because people just don’t know. People don’t know where it came from. I think we all understand where it came from. And President Xi understands that. And we don’t have to make a big deal out of it. We didn’t like the fact that they said it came from our soldiers. And they haven’t pursued that. It was — and that was a mid-level person said that. That was not a high-level person, so I assume. I will always assume the best. I’ll assume the high-level people didn’t know about it. It was a foolish statement. So, look, the relationship with China is a good one, and my relationship with him is, you know, really good.

Well, I don’t mind if they want it. Yeah. I view that as positive if they’re helping other countries. We have 151 countries right now that are under siege by the virus--Under siege. Some are doing really badly. You know, they don’t know about social distancing. These are countries that aren’t highly sophisticated. They don’t have great communication with the rest of the world. I mean, they don’t know the things that we’re doing and that some others are able to do.

And if China can help them, I’m all for it. I’m for all of us helping everybody. We’re soon going to have more ventilators than we need. We’re building thousands of ventilators right now. Now, it takes a period of time to build them. And again, nobody could have known a thing like this could happen. We’re building thousands. We will fairly soon be at a point where we have far more than we can use, even after we stockpile for some future catastrophe, which we hope doesn’t happen. We’re going to be distributing them — the extras — around the world. We’ll go to Italy, we’ll go to France. It will go to Spain, which is, you know, a very hard hit.

On the overall COVID-19 situation, Trump said the world/U.S. is now more advanced than 100 years ago at the time of terrible Spanish Flu and he is looking for a strong COVID-19 vaccine. Trump reiterated a ‘great’ come back for the U.S. economy and also talked about the potential $2T infra stimulus and bailout package of small restaurants. Trump said:

In confronting this deadly plague, America is armed with capabilities never dreamed of in past centuries. If you look at 1917, the pandemic, it was something. It ravaged parts of this country but ravaged Europe---Ravaged. They say 75- to 100 million — some people say 50- to 75 million people died. Think of that. And that was a long time ago, over 100 years ago---Very, very — many books written about the 1917, 1918 pandemic.

Our doctors are pouring over the virus genetic code, designing potential therapies and vaccines. Our planes are airlifting supplies from every corner of the Earth. We’re watching other countries and they’re watching us see whether or not — and who’s going to be the first to come up with a cure or a remedy of some kind or even a help, if it can help — and of course, a vaccine. We’re looking very strongly for a vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is doing well, and other companies are doing very well.

But our most powerful asset, our greatest weapon in this effort is the spirit of our people. And we want to keep away, keep a distance. Keep away. If you don’t get it — it solves a lot of problems. If you don’t get it — and you can’t get it if you keep the distance. The American spirit is unyielding, unwavering, and unbreakable. It’s incredible. I’ve never seen anything like it — the way the people have pulled together, the unity of this country.

So, together, we’re going to win this war, and the sooner we do, the sooner we can begin to rebuild. And we’re ready to rebound and return to normal lives. We went from the best economy in the history of the world, the best economy that this country has ever seen — the best employment numbers we’ve ever had; 160 million people working, almost; 160 million — to a point where the professionals came to me and they say, “Sir, you’re going to have to shut the country down.” I said, “What does that mean?” They said, “Sir, you’re going to have to shut it down.”

And we’re going to build it up, and I think we’re going to build it up fast. I think we’re going to have a tremendous rebound. There are great energy and great pent-up demand. And as you know, phase three was terrific, and phase four — what passed in Congress — and phase four, if that happens, will be great. I already proposed a — paying almost zero interest on bonds, and I proposed a $2 trillion infrastructure plan,which would not only fix our roads and highways and bridges and tunnels and other things but will also do something very good. It’s called “jobs.”

I’m also asking that restaurants and entertainment facilities go back to the old deductibility from corporations where corporations can buy because otherwise a lot of these restaurants are going to have a hard time reopening. It takes a long time. And they’re going to have a hard time reopening. So we’re asking for going back to deductibility, where corporations can buy and corporations can go out to lunch, and they pay and they get a deduction on what they eat, they get a deduction on the bill, and same with the entertainment. It’s going to bring a lot of people back. I think it’ll open up the restaurant business.

People forget that, years ago, they had that. And when they got rid of it, when they ended it for whatever reason — but they ended it — many, many restaurants went out of business, many entertainment-type facilities went out of business. And now is a great time to bring it back. It was — it was a terrible time for that business after they ended it. But this is a great time to bring it back. It’ll keep our restaurants going. In fact, I think the restaurant business will be actually bigger and better than it is right now. So we’re also talking about that.

On keeping limited shutdown for the shake of industry/economy, Trump clarified it will be a calculated move:

Well, we’re thinking about doing that. At the same time, we just---you know, to start these airlines and to start this whole thing over again is very tough---John. It’s very tough. And you have them going, in some cases, from hotspot to hotspot. If you notice, they’re usually hotspot to hotspot--Very few flights---New York to Miami. And — but we’re thinking — we’re certainly looking at it. But once you do that, you really are — you really are clamping down on an industry that is desperately needed---Yeah. That is a calculation that we’re looking at right now. We’re looking at it very strongly.

On a national lockdown rather than individual states in a sporadic way and why Trump is now using his executive power to announce a total national corona lockdown-Trump explained he can’t shut down a state, where there is little or no COVID-19 cases at all:

Because states are different--- States are different. And I understand that the governor of Florida — great governor, Ron DeSantis — issued one today. And that’s good. That’s great. But there are some states that are different. There are some states that don’t have much of a problem.

There are some — well, they don’t have the problem. They don’t have thousands of people that are positive or thousands of people that even think they might have it — or hundreds of people, in some cases. So you have to look — you have to look at states. You have to give a little bit of flexibility. I mean, if a state in the Midwest, or if Alaska, as an example, don’t have a problem, it’s awfully tough to say, “Close it down.” So we have to have a little bit of flexibility.

Look, we’re helping governors. We’re really here to help governors. They’re the frontline of attack, and that includes in purchasing, by the way. We’re here and we’re backing them up. And there’s never been a backup like we’ve given them. We’ve given them billions of dollars’ worth of things — medical supplies and ventilators; thousands and thousands of ventilators. We have thousands under construction right now. We have thousands ready to go in case they need it. There’s never been anything like this.

I mean, we’ve — they’ve done really — the people have done incredibly. We’re building hospitals all over the country. We’re building hospitals right now at a rate that has never even been contemplated before. They’re mobile hospitals, but they’re really not mobile. I mean, they’re incredible structures. But we’re building many hospitals: Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York. We just finished a massive hospital complex. And we also have medical centers built in New York. I mean, we’re building hospitals at the rate that this country has never done before. And hopefully, it’s all going to work out.

On total shutdown of domestic airlines, Trump clarified it may be an option:

Well, we’re looking at the whole thing, because we’re getting into a position now where we want to do that. We have to do that. And so we’re looking at the whole thing----And we may have — we may have some recommendations.

On the issue of oil, Saudi Arabia and Russia-Trump clarified he hopes Putin (Russia) and MBS (Saudi Arabia) will soon make a deal for their own interest. And Trump also clarified he will meet the U.S. oil industry at the weekend (for possible 10% production cut). But Trump also warned about other options (like the imposition of sanctions or high import duties/tariffs on U.S. imports-from Russia/China/OPEC+ producers). Trump said:

It’s like, from 1950, these oil prices. And that’s when they (Saudis) had big dollars — big, beautiful dollars--- Well, look, we have a great oil industry, and the oil industry is being ravaged.And, as you know, Russia — and I spoke to President Putin; we had a great call. Russia, Saudi Arabia — I spoke with the Crown Prince; we had a great call.But I think that they will work it out over the next few days. If you ask me, I think it’s just — it’s too simple not to be able to. They both know what they have to do. So I think — I have confidence in both that they’ll be able to work it out.

But it’s — it has ravaged an industry worldwide, not here. I mean, worldwide, the oil industry has been ravaged. So there was a lot of oil production to start off with. And then, on top of it, it got hit with the virus, and business went down 35, 40 percent. So that business is a tough one. And, you know, they have shipped all over the sea. I told you yesterday — all over the sea----Massive tankers that they’re using for storage. They go out and they just sit there. There’s no place to go. They have massive amounts.

Now, gasoline is going to be 99 cents a gallon and less. You know that. That’s already starting. It’s popping up---Ninety-nine cents. So that’s like giving a massive tax cut to people of our country. When we try and get the airlines going if — if fuel is costing much less, it helps with getting the airlines, which is always a tough business. Always has been a tough business. But with that being said, look, I want to get that industry back where it was. We were doing records in that industry also. We want to get it back to where it was.

So I think that Saudi Arabia, Russia, they’re negotiating. They’re talking. And I think they’ll come up with something. I’m going to meet with the oil companies on Friday. I’m going to meet with independent oil producers also on Friday or Saturday, maybe Sunday. But we’re having a lot of meetings on it. I think I know what to do to solve it. But if — if they’re unable to solve it, then I think I know what to do to solve it.

We won’t mention it now, but it’s tough. I think I know what to do to solve it. We don’t want to lose our great oil companies. You know, we’re the number one producer of oil in the world. And a month ago, when you said that, it was great. Today, when you say it, it’s not so meaningful. But I do believe there’s a way that that can be solved or pretty well solved. And I’d rather not do that. I think that Russia and Saudi Arabia, at some point, are going to make a deal in the not-too-distant future because it’s very bad for Russia. It’s very bad for Saudi Arabia. It’s very bad. I mean, it’s bad for both, so I think they’re going to make a deal. You know, the free market is a wonderful thing. It’s amazing how it can work. But I think they’re going to make a deal.

On the duration of social distancing guideline (partial lockdown), Dr. Fauci clarified it may be effective until there is essentially no new COVID-19 cases and deaths; but the ultimate solution would the development of a vaccine:

Yeah, I think if we get to the part of the curve that Dr. Birx showed yesterday when it goes down to essentially no new cases, no deaths at a period of time, I think it makes sense that you’re going to have to relax social distancing. The one thing we hopefully would have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who’s infected, isolate them, and then do contact tracing. Because if you have a really good program of containment that prevents you from ever having to get into mitigation — we’re in mitigation right now. That’s what the social and physical distancing is.

The ultimate — the ultimate solution to a virus that might keep coming back would be a vaccine. In fact, I was on the weekly conference call with the WHO-sponsored group of all the health leaders in the world who are dealing with this. And we all came to the agreement that we may have cycling with another season.We’ll be much better prepared. We likely will have interventions. But the ultimate game-changer in this will be a vaccine, the same way a vaccine for other diseases, that were scourges in the past, that now we don’t even worry.

A worried Trump then asked Fauci: And, Tony, how are they — how are they doing with the vaccines, Tony?

Fauci explained that the COVID-19 vaccine may be still 18-months late:

I mean, the vaccine is — is, as I said, it’s on target. We’re still in phase one. There were three doses that we had to test. We’ve been through the first two doses. We’re on the highest dose now. When we get that data — it’ll take a few months to get the data to feel confident to go to phase two. And then a few months from now, we’ll be in phase two. And I think we’re right on target for the year to a year and a half.

You know, John, I don’t know specifically this individual what they’re doing, but I can tell you there’s a lot of activity that is centered around a passive transfer of antibodies in the form of convalescent plasma, one. The number is to get immune globulin that you precipitate out of the plasma, and another is a monoclonal antibody. It’s based on the same principle of if you have a protective antibody, passive transfer that could provide not only protection, prophylactically, but also treatment. This is an old concept. In fact, immunology was born decades and decades and decades ago with the concept of giving passive transfer of serum to an individual to protect them from infection. So it’s — I wouldn’t be surprised if he and a number of other people are pursuing this. It’s the right thing to do.

On the plan of the further corona stimulus package, Trump clarified his admin would like to spend for America’s infra including schools, hospitals rather than spending it in the Middle-East:

If there is a phase four, but we’re certainly looking at certain things. We want to help restaurants, entertainment. And we want to help — because it’s jobs. Not that restaurants — it’s jobs; tremendous amounts of jobs. So we’re looking at that. We’re looking at infrastructure.I mean, we — think of it: We will have spent $8 trillion. And, you know, it’s way back. We’re way pulled back. But we will have spent $8 trillion in the Middle East, and yet our roads are in bad shape; our bridges, our tunnels in bad shape.

And we’re going to be the talk of the world again soon. But we want 2 trillion. We will have spent in the Middle East — and all we got out of it was death and cost. But all we got out of it was death. Millions of people. You have to look at the other side too. Millions and millions of people killed. Our great soldiers — thousands killed; so many wounded, hurt. And yet, when we want to go and fix a road someplace, we want to do what we want to do in our country — no, it’s time that we spend money on our country. That’s what we’re going to do.

It’s time that we start spending on our roads and our bridges and our schools, and all of the things that we’re supposed to be spending on. And people are finally getting used to it. And you could look at all of what we’ve done in the Middle East, way back in so many different places — way back in other countries too, by the way.

And I’ve gone to other countries that are very rich. I said, “I’m sorry, you’re going to have to reimburse us for our costs.” They don’t even want to — know what I’m talking about. It takes them 20 minutes to figure it out because nobody has ever asked them to do that. And they’re doing it. They’re doing it. And they have no choice. They have to do it. So, it’s time that we start spending in the USA.

On Wednesday, the WHO Chief Tedros said for his opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19:

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

As we enter the fourth month since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, I am deeply concerned about the rapid escalation and global spread of infection. Over the past 5 weeks, we have witnessed a near exponential growth in the number of new cases, reaching almost every country, territory, and area. The number of deaths has more than doubled in the past week. In the next few days, we will reach 1 million confirmed cases, and 50 thousand deaths.

While relatively lower numbers of confirmed cases have been reported from Africa, and from Central and South America, we realize that COVID-19 could have serious social, economic and political consequences for these regions. It is critical that we ensure these countries are well equipped to detect, test, isolate and treat cases, and identify contacts – I am encouraged to see that this is occurring in many countries, despite limited resources. Many countries are asking people to stay at home and shutting down population movement, which can help to limit the transmission of the virus but can have unintended consequences for the poorest and most vulnerable people.

I have called on governments to put in place social welfare measures to ensure vulnerable people have food and other life essentials during this crisis. In India, for example, Prime Minister Modi has announced a $24 billion package, including free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers to 204 million poor women and free cooking gas for 80 million households for the next 3 months. Many developing countries will struggle to implement social welfare programs of this nature. For those countries, debt relief is essential to enable them to take care of their people and avoid economic collapse. This is a call from the WHO, the World Bank, and the IMF – debt relief for developing countries.

Three months ago, we knew almost nothing about this virus. Collectively, we have learned an enormous amount. And every day, we learn more. The WHO is committed to serving all people everywhere with the best evidence to protect their health. The WHO develops guidance based on the totality of evidence collected from around the world. Every day, our staff talk to thousands of experts around the world to collect and distill that evidence and experience.

We constantly review and update our guidance as we learn more, and we are working to adapt it for specific contexts. For example, we recommend handwashing and physical distancing, but we also recognize this can be a practical challenge for those who lack access to clean water, or who live in cramped conditions. Together with UNICEF and the International Federation of the Red Cross, we’ve published new guidance for improving access to handwashing. The guidance recommends that countries set up handwashing stations at the entrance to public buildings, offices, bus stops, and train stations.

We’re also working hard with researchers all over the world to generate evidence about which medicines are most effective for treating COVID-19. There has been an extraordinary response to our call for countries to join the Solidarity trial, which is comparing four drugs and drug combinations. So far, 74 countries have either joined the trial or are in the process of joining. As of this morning, more than 200 patients had been randomly assigned to one of the study arms. Each new patient who joins the trial gets us one step closer to knowing which drugs work.

We’re also continuing to study the evidence about the use of masks. The WHO’s priority is that frontline health workers are able to access essential personal protective equipment, including medical masks and respirators. That’s why we are continuing to work with governments and manufacturers to step up the production and distribution of personal protective equipment, including masks. There’s an ongoing debate about the use of masks at the community level. The WHO recommends the use of medical masks for people who are sick and those caring for them.

However, in these circumstances, masks are only effective when combined with other protective measures. The WHO continues to gather all available evidence and continues to evaluate the potential use of masks more broadly to control COVID-19 transmission at the community level. This is still a very new virus, and we are learning all the time. As the pandemic evolves, so does the evidence, and so does our advice. But what doesn’t change is the WHO’s commitment to protecting the health of all people, based on the best science, without fear or favor.

Thank you.

On Wednesday, Dow stumbled from the session high on Trump’s indication that lockdown may be further extended to limit corona deaths in a mass scale coup0led with the WHO’ comment about worsening situation of the coronavirus global pandemic currently outside China.

Bottom line:

Despite surging corona cases in the U.S., now fast approaching 250K with almost 6K deaths, Trump is still hesitant to declare a nationwide lockdown, but he may be preparing to soon announce that (at least in a limited way) by fearmongering of above 2M possible corona deaths. Trump may have realized that limited partial lockdown across the U.S. will not help the economy and stock market. Trump has to forget about the GDP number and Dow to take decisive action against COVID-19.

The COVId-19 may fade from April-June outside China due to the development of natural herd immunity among the community (60-70% infection and 70-90 days required for the development of natural anti-bodies) coupled with standard care/therapies. But it will leave its scar for a prolonged period of time and the world may not be the same as before due to lingering social distancing and a sense of stigma to China for ‘ virus spreading’ allegation. And after corona, the economic as-well-as Dow recovery may be ‘U’ shaped (gradual) rather than ‘’V’ or even ‘W’ in 2021.

In any way, the Dow, oil, and other risk assets are very near to their respective bottom. As per a report by a migrant NY private doc, almost 70% of NY public maybe now infected with COVID-19, mainly due to lack of sufficient testing kits and other PPE including masks. If the doc is right, then we should see a tapering of coronavirus cases in NY due to the development of natural herd immunity, the basic ‘miracle’ helped to bring Wuhan like magic.

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2525 for a rebound to 2635/2695-2755*/2810 and further rally to 2895/2955-3000*/3085 and 3125/3155-3185*/3285 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2515-2500, SPX-500 may further fall to 2440/2390*-2315/2275* and 2190/2150*-2040/1980* in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, DJ-30 now has to sustain over 21800 for a bounce back to 22500/23500*-23900/24900 and further rally to 25200/25700-26500/26900* and 27300/27900-28300/28600* in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 21750, DJ-30 may fall to 21450/21150*-20500/20300* and 19900/19200*-18200/16900 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, NQ-100 now has to sustain above 7525 for a bounce back to 7615/7915-8000*/8150 and further rally to 8350/8475-8575/8700 and 9000*/9225-9345/9505 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 7500, NQ-100 may further fall to 7350/7245-7100/6940* and 6700/6475*-6350/6250* in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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