Tag Archives: Free NFL Week 11 Picks

San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos Pooint Spread Pick: Sorry for the late post. This game was unavailable all week long, showing up on Saturday at one sportsbook. It’s still the only sports book where the game is available, and the line is 4.

The value is with the Broncos – I know that because they have a good defense, better than the Chargers have, and they are at home and getting 4 points – that’s one more than a field goal and that can make all the difference. The Broncos are 3-1 at home (their only loss coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers) and they’ve beaten New England and Dallas at home in Denver. It’s not like they’ve only played powder-puffs. But with all that being said and realized I’m not taking the Broncos, oh no.

First of all, when two teams are close to or equal, I almost always like the team that lost the first game to pull the second game out. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in a row. But that’s not it, last time these two teams played, I actually think San Diego played a better game than Denver. Offensively and defensively (key areas if I don’t say so myself) I think the Chargers were more impressive. Special teams (and namely Eddie Royal) won that game for the Broncos with two return touchdowns. I don’t buy that happening again this time around.

Not that history means much, but the Chargers have owned this series, especially when it matters most. San Diego has won 5 of the last 7, including last season when a playoff spot was on the line. In that game, the Chargers ran Denver (and Coach Mike Shannahan) right out of the building, something to the tune of 52-21… You bet.

If you take Kyle Orton out and put Chris Simms in, you can see where I’m coming from. I hate giving the Broncos and their solid defense 4 points at home, but I’m going to have to do it.

Okay, so this is my first picks article ever, and while I’ve said many times that this stuff is easy, we’ll just have to see. I’ve done alright on my own card this year, so Lucky asked me to put my thoughts (that were making me money) down to paper. Since I’ve made most of my money taking favorites, I usually bet 3-5 favorites a game, LL told me to just go with what’s working and select my top five favorites per week (plus he says, Papa has the dogs). He told me that it was okay to go opposite him, which makes me even happier (because like I always say, anything worth playing is worth beating your friends at). Here’s what I got for week 11.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: It’s funny, Lucky got these guys as a dog (though just a point) earlier in the week, I get them here as a favorite, and I have to admit, I’m equally happy. I don’t see a point making the difference. There’s no doubt that the Ravens have some confidence, and they love when nobody gives them a chance, giving them a shot in this game. But Peyton has owned the Ravens, and this isn’t even close to Baltimore’s best secondary they’ve had over the years. This one seems easy enough.

Green Bay Packers (-6) @ home vs. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have played a lot of close games, and they can run it, but the Packers are definitely a trouble-match-up for San Francisco. They put a lot of pressure on young receivers with their physical corners, and they don’t run the ball that much on offense, so who cares if the 49ers shut down the run well. San Francisco did not play to win last week against Chicago, and they are lucky to hold on against a bad team. I like Green Bay to win by a couple touchdowns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) @ home vs. Buffalo Bills: The Jaguars have been great of late, and they are feeding their best player the ball. The Bills are a mess, fired head coach, terrible offense, new quarterback, injury ridden defense – nothing much to like there. Jacksonville is better than given credit for.

New England (-10.5) @ home vs. New York Jets: I just don’t see the Jets hanging in there twice in a row. The Patriots weren’t playing well to start the season while the Jets were playing on cloud 9. That hasn’t continued, on either side. The Pats have been back to domination on offense, their defense has been stout, and the Jets have fallen hard in both areas. Injuries and youth have not served them well. Plus you have the Pats coming out fired up, looking for redemption and to put last week’s last second loss to the Colts out of their minds. I expect a Patriots killing.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears: Lucky’s right about this one, the Bears just aren’t good. Neither of these teams have been stellar, but the opportunistic Eagles defense against Jay Cutler – lets just say Va-Jay-Jay Cutler will be making that shame face early and often. I’m looking for him to wrap up the passing title this week, passing to opposing teams that is. Gimmie the Eagles.

Cincinnati Bengals (-9) @ Oakland Raiders Free Pick & Preview: Lets make something clear, in 7 wins this season, the Bengals have won by more than 10 just once. They’ve won by 7 or less 6 times, a field goal three times. They play close games. Even against Cleveland, the Bengals needed overtime to get the job done – and they needed every second of overtime, too. Not only that, but the Bengals are going to be playing without the most consistent piece of their offense, Cedric Benson, as the big Texas bruising tail back is doubtful with his hip injury.

The Raiders have been pathetic, no doubt, but I’m not sure if they’re quite as bad as people are giving them credit for. Sure, their owner is a full blow gong show in and of himself, the coaching situation is pathetic at best, and at quarterback they just benched the guy that had been terrible all season, only to get to another guy that has been equally as terrible in a reserve role. But in their 7 losses, 3 have been single digit losses.

My deal is you can’t relate every team to the new team they are playing now. I know Cincinnati doesn’t do much in terms of winning by big scores, but they can. They will probably have to throw the ball a little more this week, and that makes room for some quick scores. If the Bengals can put up three touchdowns, they cover this spread. I would be stunned if the Raiders put up more than 10 points.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers Week 11 Free Pick: John Fox, here’s to hoping you blow it again! This week’s Thursday Night Football game on NFL Network pits two of last seasons’ most impressive teams against each-other for a game that promises to have some serious running back action. Ronnie Brown is out for the Dolphins, but don’t think they won’t keep their attack rush-centric, they still have Ricky Williams (who has been awesome this year) as well as running QB Pat White. But I’m thinking this injury might make them more balanced. week in and week out, the Dolphins run more than they pass, and that’s probably the right thing to do (John Fox, pay attention you dope), but Chad Henne has shown me he can throw the ball all over the field. Against a Panther team that is probably getting ready to see the Dolphins carry the ball 40 times, Henne might just be able to hurt them with his arm.

The Dolphins are set up well to hold the Panthers out of the end zone. They give up big passing plays, but are stout against the run, and have made big plays on defense when quarterbacks get fidgety with the ball. Jake Delhomme loves to play around with the pig skin. Both teams have won 4 of their last 6, but Carolina has been beaten in every game they’ve been out-rushed in. I like Miami’s D to allow that to happen.

If the Panthers came out and ran the ball 40 times, I would give them the cover here, but John Fox has repeatedly tried to break defenses at their weakest point, managed to ignore his own running game for long portions of winnable games, and generally has a dumb look on his face the entire time. I think Miami’s the better team, this game should be close, 3.5 points is good enough for me!

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) Free NFL Pick: It’s hard to think of much to say about this game, but as far as wordy bastards go, I’m pretty much right up there, so you know I’ll give it my best shot.

These teams suck. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more terrible offense than the thing Cleveland puts out there on a weekly basis, but Detroit’s overall consistently terrible play all over the field makes them hard to watch as well. The fact that Detroit can actually put offensive touchdowns on the score board make them a sexy pick here, especially when you consider that most of Cleveland’s total yards come from a guy that might not play because of an injury on Monday Night’s last second play. Joshua Cribbs is questionable for Sunday’s game.

When you add everything up, the poo and the spit and the tears and the questionable decisions, the rosters, the firings, and all of the disappointment and questions surrounding the Cleveland Browns organization over the last, well, since they became the Browns again anyway, I just don’t see how there’s any other pick in this one besides the Lions.

Detroit is no sure thing, don’t get it twisted, but they have an offense with some solid play makers, they have a quarterback that can stretch the defense, and a receiver that is one of the very best in the NFL. They don’t do much defensively, but I’m not sure they’ll have to. Give me the Lions in a game too ugly for even me to watch. And that’s saying something.

Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick & Preview: I liked the Jaguars a lot coming into the season, and while they’ve played well lately, they still haven’t show enough for me to ever take them as a 9 point favorite, even against a Bills team that JUST fired their coach on Tuesday, seemingly has been outscored 4000 to 17 in 4th quarters during the first 9 games, and is among the league’s worst in stopping the run (something Jacksonville heavily relies on to succeed). Basically, the Bills defense is a good match-up for the Jags, and I’m still not taking the big favorite.

Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars twice in the last 3 seasons despite being the underdog in all three games. Teh Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against the Jags since 1998, they have won 5 of the last 7 match-ups. Buffalo has beaten the Jaguars in Jacksonville 3 of the last 4 times, and I’m sorry to say this, but Buffalo just isn’t as bad as their record (and 4th quarter play) is trying to tell you.

Now, there’s the whole coaching thing, and I want to let everyone know, I picked this game prior to Dick Jauron’s dismissal, but I actually like my chances better since the forever mediocre coach’s departure early Tuesday Morning. There’s two ways a team can go, they can be excited for the new guy or disappointed about the old guy’s departure. I’m guessing this will be option one. If anything, the new coach might pull his head out of the dirty smelling hole Dick Jauron was stuck in and get the Bills to do what they do best, run the damn football. If they do that against the Jags, this cover is as sure as they get. I’m taking a chance here, that’s for sure.