Edwards' coattails questionable

WilliamL. Watts

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- In tapping John Edwards to be his running mate, John Kerry stoked growing hopes among Democrats for achieving a Senate majority in the November elections.

No doubt, Democratic prospects have improved since the start of the year when most prognosticators expected Republicans to pad their narrow 51-48 majority by at least a seat or two. But overturning GOP control still looks like a tough job.

Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races for the closely watched Cook Political Report, sees a 30 to 35 percent chance Democrats will achieve a Senate majority. In January, she'd pegged odds at around 10 percent.

But Duffy hasn't changed those odds since Edwards was named to the ticket. Does the addition of the North Carolina senator to the Democratic ticket boost odds for Democratic Senate candidates, especially in the GOP-dominated South?

"Maybe North Carolina," said Duffy, where former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles was already slightly leading Republican Rep. Richard Burr in the battle to fill the seat left empty after Edwards decided last year to focus on his presidential run and not seek reelection.

She also noted that there were two southerners -- Bill Clinton and Gore -- on the Democratic ticket in 1992 and 1996. And in both years, the Democratic Senate candidate in North Carolina outpolled the top of the slate but still lost to their GOP rivals.

Cara Morris, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said, "it's very clear that Edwards on the ticket will help Erskine Bowles in November."

In addition, Edwards was able to attract a large number of independents to the poll in his sole primary win in neighboring South Carolina, where he was born, Morris noted. As a native son of the Palmetto State, Edwards may also give a lift to state Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, the Democrat battling Republican Rep. Jim DeMint for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Fritz Hollings, Morris said.

Edwards can talk authoritatively about tobacco and other rural issues that are likely to resonate with Southern voters, she said.

"I think he adds energy across the board. I think that in North and South Carolina and maybe in the South he definitely could attract new voters to the polls," she said.

Republicans scoff at the notion of Edwards offering Southern coattails in November.

"You've only got to go back to 2000 to see when a Southerner (Al Gore) topped the Democratic ticket, and he didn't win any states in the South. He didn't even win his home state" of Tennessee, said Dan Allen, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

In the long run, many Southern Democratic candidates are more likely to distance themselves from the Democratic ticket, particularly with a "Massachusetts liberal" such as Kerry at its head, Allen predicted.

"As reality sets in, people like Inez Tenenbaum, Chris John (in Louisiana) and whoever ends up in Georgia are not going to be embracing the national ticket," Allen said.

Republicans hold 51 seats in the Senate, while Democrats have 48. There is one independent who usually votes with the Democrats.

There are 34 seats -- 19 held by Democrats and 15 held by Republicans -- up for election in November. Of those, only around nine are seen as competitive.

Democrats were seen holding a disadvantage in that it had to defend more seats than the GOP. Moreover, in order to take control, Democrats will have to hold open seats in Republican-leaning states, including the Carolinas and Louisiana, while attempting to pick off seats being vacated by Republicans in Colorado and Oklahoma.

Republicans are expected to easily take the Democratic seat being vacated by Sen. Zell Miller in Georgia. On the Democratic side, state lawmaker Barack Obama was expected to take the seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald in Illinois, even before Republican rival Jack Ryan withdrew from the race following the release of his divorce records.

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