Analyzing International Relations and American Politics

Thoughts on Brussels

I was originally going to write about the Russian withdrawal from Syria, but then I woke up to the horrific news out of Brussels. Therefore, the Russia post will be delayed. I am still sifting through all the articles and reports being released. Nevertheless, here are a few thoughts.

Second, I think this might motivate Europe to increase defense and security spending. For a while, Europe has been effectively free-riding on a strong U.S. and a peaceful world. While European countries have started to re-militarize in the wake of the Crimea annexation and the Paris attacks, I think the pace of military buildup will likely increase significantly. Moreover, I expect more European contributions to combating Islamic extremism in both the Middle East and in Europe. There are powerful pressures in Europe against interventionism, especially after the Iraq War debacle. Nevertheless, the increasing number of attacks (Paris, Berlin, Brussels) will make intervention much more palatable.

Third, expect the Schengen Agreement to come under further strain and possibly collapse. What makes Europe so vulnerable to terrorism is that there are essentially no border controls within the continent. Thus, if extremist elements are able to smuggle bombs/weapons through the Balkans, they can strike almost anywhere in Europe. As European electorates have become more and more resistant to unrestricted refugee flows, the increasing number of terror attacks might just be the straw that breaks Schengen’s back. Of course, it’s also possible that instead of ending the Schengen zone, this attack will generate a multinational effort to police and secure Europe’s Balkan border with troops from France, Germany, and other major European powers. Regardless of what happens, it is clear that there will be changes.

I would just close by saying that we are fighting to defend two things in the West: our safety and our values. Fear and hatred risk everything we have worked so hard to achieve. Western culture is so great because it is not as backward and perverse as the Islamic extremists we are fighting. Don’t let Brussels or Paris or San Bernadino be used to undermine the gains we have made as a society. I know Trump has already called for allowing unrestricted use of torture in the wake of the attack, and I’m sure many far-right European parties will argue for similarly harsh (though less absurd) solutions to the growing challenge of terror. As the Economist explains, “IS bases its terrorism on a vicious calculation. It believes that successful attacks will inspire the would-be Muslim radicals that it is trying to recruit. But it also wants to provoke a backlash in order to convince those same radicals that the world despises them and their religion.” We cannot allow our just outrage to fuel ISIS. We cannot fall into their trap.