Louis: Bush faces no scandal, can appeal to Latinos on immigration issues

Politics abhors a vacuum, and the "Bridgegate scandal" engulfing Chris Christie has severely compromised the New Jersey governor's ability to launch a campaign for president, opening a space that Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, seems likely to fill.

"The idea that he's the prohibitive front-runner is over" is how one Republican strategist described Christie's plight to the conservative National Review.

At stake is the future of the Republican Party, which has been divided for several years by a simmering fight between factions -- ultra-conservative Tea Party activists and more moderate establishment figures who control key party offices.

Christie and Bush are both frequently mentioned as mainstream candidates that the establishment would like to see run in 2016. But Christie's status as a party favorite has faltered, while Bush appears to be on the rise.

Errol Louis

The contrast was on display at Saturday's White House Correspondents' Dinner, the high-profile, televised black-tie event in which the nation's media and political elites take satirical jabs at one another. Nobody got rougher treatment from the podium than Christie, especially from comedian Joel McHale, the evening's emcee.

"I promise that tonight will be both amusing and over quickly -- just like Chris Christie' s presidential bid," quipped McHale, who later harped on the apparently politically motivated traffic tie-up near the George Washington Bridge that has led to the firing and resignation of top Christie aides. "Finally, a politician willing to stand up to America's commuters," deadpanned McHale.

Bush, by contrast, escaped with a passing mention as a top presidential contender.

Potential 2016 presidential candidates 19 photos

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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has said his decision to run for the Republican nomination will be based on two things: his family and whether he can lift America's spirit. His father and brother are former Presidents.

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Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has created a political committee that will help him travel and raise money while he considers a 2016 bid. Additionally, billionaire businessman David Koch said in a private gathering in Manhattan this month that he wants Walker to be the next president, but he doesn't plan to back anyone in the primaries.

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Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is establishing a committee to formally explore a White House bid. "If I run, my candidacy will be based on the idea that the American people are ready to try a dramatically different direction," he said in a news release provided to CNN on Monday, May 18.

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Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, has said the United States needs a "political revolution" of working-class Americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. He first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of Thursday, April 30.

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On March 2, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson announced the launch of an exploratory committee. The move will allow him to raise money that could eventually be transferred to an official presidential campaign and indicates he is on track with stated plans to formally announce a bid in May.

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South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has said he'll make a decision about a presidential run sometime soon. A potential bid could focus on Graham's foreign policy stance.

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Hillary Clinton launched her presidential bid Sunday, April 12, through a video message on social media. She continues to be considered the overwhelming front-runner among possible 2016 Democratic presidential candidates.

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Sen. Marco Rubio announced his bid for the 2016 presidency on Monday, April 13, a day after Hillary Clinton, with a rally in Florida. He's a Republican rising star from Florida who swept into office in 2010 on the back of tea party fervor. But his support of comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the Senate but has stalled in the House, has led some in his party to sour on his prospects.

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Lincoln Chafee, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat former governor and senator of Rhode Island, said he's running for president on Thursday, April 16, as a Democrat, but his spokeswoman said the campaign is still in the presidential exploratory committee stages.

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Jim Webb, the former Democratic senator from Virginia, is entertaining a 2016 presidential run. In January, he told NPR that his party has not focused on white, working-class voters in past elections.

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Vice President Joe Biden has twice before made unsuccessful bids for the Oval Office -- in 1988 and 2008. A former senator known for his foreign policy and national security expertise, Biden made the rounds on the morning shows recently and said he thinks he'd "make a good President."

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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has started a series of town halls in New Hampshire to test the presidential waters, becoming more comfortable talking about national issues and staking out positions on hot topic debates.

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Rep. Paul Ryan, a former 2012 vice presidential candidate and fiscally conservative budget hawk, says he's keeping his "options open" for a possible presidential run but is not focused on it.

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Sen. Rand Paul officially announced his presidential bid on Tuesday, April 7, at a rally in Louisville, Kentucky. The tea party favorite probably will have to address previous controversies that include comments on civil rights, a plagiarism allegation and his assertion that the top NSA official lied to Congress about surveillance.

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Texas Sen. Ted Cruz announced his 2016 presidential bid on Monday, March 23, in a speech at Liberty University. The first-term Republican and tea party darling is considered a gifted orator and smart politician. He is best known in the Senate for his marathon filibuster over defunding Obamacare.

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Democrat Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor, released a "buzzy" political video in November 2013 in tandem with visits to New Hampshire. He also headlined a Democratic Party event in South Carolina, which holds the first Southern primary.

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Republican Rick Perry, the former Texas governor, announced in 2013 that he would not be seeking re-election, leading to speculation that he might mount a second White House bid.

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Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a social conservative, gave Mitt Romney his toughest challenge in the nomination fight last time out and has made trips recently to early voting states, including Iowa and South Carolina.

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Political observers expect New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to yield to Hillary Clinton's run in 2016, fearing there wouldn't be room in the race for two Democrats from the Empire State.

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Christie's bad news shows up in polls that can't be dismissed as a joke. In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll of all Americans, Bush ranked at the top of a list of Republican presidential contenders with a 14% showing; Christie's was 10%. A Fox News poll taken last month shows that among Republicans, Bush has a 52% approval rating compared with Christie's 46%.

After talking with more than 24 top Republican donors, reporters from The New York Times concluded in a recent article that "some of them are signaling to Mr. Christie's camp that, should Mr. Bush enter the race, their first loyalty would be to him, not to Mr. Christie."

That's a sea change from recent years, when Christie, a prodigious fund-raiser, wielded tight control over his New Jersey donors. According to Washington Post commentator Dan Balz, when candidate Mitt Romney came seeking support, in 2011, Christie said he told him: "If you raise money in New Jersey in any kind of aggressive, organized way, it's going to make it very unlikely that I'll be able to support you."

Things have changed. With Christie hemorrhaging support, a number of New Jersey heavy hitters are now openly agonizing over whether to stick with Christie or invest in a Bush candidacy. Bush brings multiple advantages: Having a father and brother who were presidents means there are legions of Republicans, across multiple generations, who owe personal and political loyalty to the closest thing the GOP has to a royal family.

On the hot-button issue of immigration reform, Bush has staked out an independent position, calling on Republicans to move away from "harsh rhetoric" on the issue and co-authoring a book on the subject -- an implicit recognition that winning the White House in 2016 will require support from Latinos and other pro-immigration voters.

Most importantly, Bush remains untouched by scandal, while Christie must cope with a scandal that just won't go away. Last week, an attorney for David Samson, a close adviser and mentor of Christie's, announced that Samson will not answer subpoenas from a state legislative committee investigating Bridgegate, citing his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination.

It's another crippling blow to Christie's presidential hopes. Samson, named by Christie to serve as chairman of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, oversaw the multibillion-dollar agency that runs the George Washington Bridge until he was forced to resign as the scandal unfolded.

Samson is the most prominent among several Christie aides who have quit or been fired and have now lawyered up. That means we'll see court fights around memos, meetings and other crucial evidence for months to come -- months during which Christie's nascent candidacy will continue to decline, leaving Bush looking like the white knight for which the Republican establishment has been waiting.