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Statistical analysis: History says benching Donovan McNabb was a mistake

By
Brian Burke

--When Coach Mike Shanahan made the decision to replace Donovan McNabb with Rex Grossman against the Lions on Sunday, the Redskins still had about a 25 percent chance of winning the game, much higher than most fans might think. Even below-average teams can get a touchdown with 1 minute 45 seconds to play relatively easily. All four downs are available, and with nothing to lose, offenses can afford extra risks.

--Preparation and conditioning issues aside, the decision was probably a colossal mistake if history is any guide. Since 2000, McNabb has been involved in 30 games with the game on the line the last two minutes. Until this season, McNabb's total Win Probability Added (WPA) over those games is 0.94, meaning he had been a solid net positive for the Philadelphia Eagles when the chips were down. This season, however, in the three games with the game on the line and less than two minutes to go in regulation, McNabb's performance has been poor. He managed -0.38 WPA against Houston, -0.25 WPA against Green Bay, and -0.15 against Indianapolis. This may be the real reason Shanahan went with Grossman, but Grossman has historically been a disaster in the clutch. In the 10 games in his career he ran a two-minute offense, Grossman totalled a -0.93 WPA.

--The way the Redskins' offensive line has been playing, it may not have mattered who was behind center. One way to think about offensive line play is that its job is to prevent opposing defensive lines from making plays, including sacks, stuffs and tackles for losses or short gains. Ranking offensive lines according to the impact of opposing front-seven defenders would put the Redskins' line second to last in the NFL, barely ahead of the woeful Bears. On a per-game basis, the Redskins' line gives up 0.53 worth of Win Probability each week, while the league average is 0.38. The difference between the average and the Redskins' line, 0.15 WPA, which essentially says their line is costing the team a 15 percent chance of winning each game. The best offensive lines so far this year belong to the Colts, Texans, Patriots, and (surprisingly) the Bills.

--Although most analysts make too much out of the edge a bye week can give a team, there is a small but real effect. In the 19 seasons from 1990-2008, teams coming off a bye have won slightly more than 53 percent of the time. This is roughly half the advantage of home field. The Redskins will have both going for them when they return to host the Eagles in Week 9.

Brian Burke is a former Navy pilot who has given up his F/A-18 for the less dangerous hobby of football analysis. He is the creator of Advanced NFL Stats, a Web site about football, statistics and game theory.

"That's just wrong," Ochocinco said. "It really makes no sense. What message are you really trying to send?"

Owens then took a jab at McNabb.

"Well, I don't really want to start anything, but I did play in the Super Bowl and there were rumors where he couldn't get our two-minute offense going at the end of the game," Owens said. "I'm just saying."

The funny thing is if Shanny doesn't do what he did, then everyone on here except for maybe Brown is killing McNabb this week for the late interception.

Posted by: Flounder21 | November 3, 2010 6:14 AM

You're right...I wouldn't be killing McNabb since he's not responsible for blocking Suh or giving up 30 points to the Lions. His late pick was AWFUL but dude made some big plays early to get us on the board at a time when we couldn't run, couldn't pass, and couldn't block on offense. How people just gloss over the good things he doesn't and harp on the bad is completely mindnumbing considering the level of play we've seen here in the recent past.

Shanahan has indeed let Donovan off the hook for making that boneheaded call. But any blaming of McNabb for that loss would be just as stupid, IMO. He's certainly been mediocre this year and downright bad at times...but he protects the ball for the most part and keeps plays alive with his legs. That's EXACTLY the kind of QB you need when your line is playing like garbage...not sure why I seem to be the only one seeing that.

Oh, and F this thread altogether. F statistical analysis on why benching McNabb was a bad idea when we have THE ACTUAL RESULT TELLING US THE SAME SH*T!!!!

I mean, the WaPo just HAS to be this bad on purpose...there's really no other way...

I mean, the WaPo just HAS to be this bad on purpose...there's really no other way...

Posted by: brownwood26 | November 3, 2010 6:31 AM |

how many threads about AH, CP, and now this benching mess must we endure ? what really floors me is notta, nothing, not one thread about the special teams play and the play of one BBanks. what gives ?

I for one must give my congrats to Banks and the special teams. the only concern with the specials is the long snapper and the directional punts out of bound, which is not an easy task. that said, we haven't been making bad decisions and punting to Hester and friends. more practice on those punts and we'll even win the field position battle. KO and KR have been splendid. same with PC and PR. give DSmith some credit here also.

U know we are so quick to defend Mc5 on the benching...but only Shanny knows how Mc5 looks in practice. If he doesn't run the 2 min. drill well in practice, he doesn't run it well. U act like he was playing superb in training camp, from what I saw, he wasn't that sharp. T.O is now the second former eagle to say the Eagles have the same problem. Shanny is trying to set a new atmosphere in Washington. He is not gonna feed Mc5 with a silver spoon. If he can't do it, if he is not playing well...he should not play. It just so happens we have a bad backup in Rex, but the point is, Shanny refuses to sit back and watch Mc5 make a bunch of mistakes. It's what? Week 8,9. Things need to start clicking for him. When we were driving down the field on Indy, Mc5 was taking his time. Don't get me wrong, Mc5 gives us the best chance to win. But if your not practicing well u will not play well.

Rocco, ESPN has been running a stat that shows McNabb's numbers in the clutch this season...they're hideous. Something like a 41 QB rating, good for 3rd worst in the league (ironically, Kolb is the worst). So numbers suggest that benching McNabb was warranted. But I maintain that you can't judge McNabb on numbers alone since most of his impact comes in the form of dodging pressure and keeping plays alive when an obvious sack is avoided...especially when he's playing without an offensive line and precious few targets to throw to. I'm not sure you can adequately evaluate ANY QB with the way the offense is going right now.

And you certainly don't bench your starter when an immoblie QB with a penchant for the crippling turnover is your primary backup. THAT'S what's crazy...not necessarily the act of benching McNabb in and of itself.

I think the biggest reason people are soo upset with this Mc5 thing is what Shanny said right after the game. Had he said what Kyle said, maybe we are not talking about this now. It's hard for a coach to maintain his composure when he has to talk about it 10 mins. after the game.

I'd like to offer Nancy Pelosi a position on my staff. Take that however you want...

Unemployed politicians?

Now, that's what's scary.

Hide the children and protect the elderly.

Alert the D.C. area hookers and escorts that now is when you think of selling that sex tape you made with that guy who asked you only to call him, "Mr. Speaker, baby."

The election has increased unemployment by firing people who failed at getting the rest of us good jobs.

It means that a bunch of annoying professional types in blue suits with red ties and neat haircuts will soon be panhandling and begging for money out on the streets and highways and not in some lobbyists' office on K Street.

Some will get jobs in the same corporations that sent money to the dude who's replacing them as that's what the rich and powerful call recycling.

Me?: I will look rudely away at the sight of some jobless pols' begging palm in the way they didn't when failed banks asked for money they didn't need.

I can see the cardboard signs now:

Will NOT Pass Obamacare for food.

Homeless. Hopeless. Clueless.

Yes, I'm living under this TARP

So where's my BAILOUT?

Please put your Change in this bucket so I have something to Believe In

I usually don't comment on this post, but I must add my opinion for what it is worth.

There is a lot of negativity flowing and I understand it. Shanahan made a big blunder in removing McNabb and I hope they can move on from this. I was hoping that Shanahan would admit it was a mistake, but I realize at this level you won't see this. The only thing I can hope for now is that in private he has apologized to McNabb.

All Redskin fans have to realize this is a much better team than last year and you have to admit that, for the most part, it is a better managed team. There is hope for the future. McNabb, despite his flaws is the only QB that gives them a chance to win. The offensive line is atrocious on the interior and barely serviceable on the outside if Brown is healthy.

McNabb can only do so much with the pressure he is facing. The only solution is for this team to become run heavy and be willing to take short gains and losses. This will allow the unrelenting pass rush to respect the run and allow play-action to be effective. This will also allow improve time of possession and give the defense the rest that it needs. If this team commits to be a run-centric offense, there is a chance for a successful finish.

Gallrick, good stuff my man...I think most of us realize this is a work in progress. It's the Kool-Aid drinking segment of the fanbase that thought this team was an instant winner just because names like Shanahan and McNabb have been attached to the operation. Sweeping change usually takes time, regardless of who's involved. The only way I'm truly upset over this team is if we drastically regress in the 2nd half of the season. Otherwise, they are what I thought they were.

c'mon folks, let's talk lorenzo, banks, fletcher, rocky, anything but mcnabb all day today. I'm afaid with the bye week we'll be talking about this for the next 2 weeks, and that would be worse than the benching of mcnabb in itself

RSH...I got a thing for MILFs. Not necessarily saying that Pelosi is a MILF, but I will say she looks like she knows her way around a cock.

Beep, don't confuse trying out a punchline about a chick who happens to be a politician with "turning the blog to politics". I mean, I'd love to bang Julia Roberts, but we're not exactly discussing the plot of Eat, Pray, Love...

McNabb can only do so much with the pressure he is facing. The only solution is for this team to become run heavy and be willing to take short gains and losses. This will allow the unrelenting pass rush to respect the run and allow play-action to be effective. This will also allow improve time of possession and give the defense the rest that it needs. If this team commits to be a run-centric offense, there is a chance for a successful finish.

The thing is, the Redskins had something like ten yards on eight carries at the beginning of the game. All that run-first philosophy gets you is a lot of playing time for your punting unit.

My thought is teams are filling the box and daring Washington to throw the ball. The offensive line can't block them into a running game and can't protect the quarterback in the passing game. If any tweaks are made to the game plan, it needs to focus on why Johnny can't block. They need to fill the game book with less predictable game play. How many draws have they run this year? End arounds? Wildcat? Unbalanced lines? They have a very agile quarterback who can throw on the run, so why not use that strength to their advantage?

I know where the Shanahans are at right now. They are faced with the dilemma of making some major changes to their game plan or sticking to the plan and hoping it will gel. I'd choose making changes because I just don't think they have the right guys to do what they want to do.

Beep, don't confuse trying out a punchline about a chick who happens to be a politician with "turning the blog to politics". I mean, I'd love to bang Julia Roberts, but we're not exactly discussing the plot of Eat, Pray, Love...

Posted by: brownwood26 | November 3, 2010 8:08 AM
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I think I just threw up a bit. Did you call Pelosi a "chick"? On a list of MILF's a mile long, she'd be like at the third mile marker...

Hey Redskinhead....so what if they "10 yards on 8 carries"...keep running the ball...eventually you wear down a defense and allow play-action to be effective. There must be an over-riding commitment to the run.

I see where the current offense in it's incarnation is allowing McNabb to get clobbered. I don't see the reason to continue this pattern.

Actually, as I've been off the McNabb bandwagon for about three weeks now (I say franchise him and trade him), I really don't have anything else to say.

I will say that the next 2 months are going to be massively interesting for the team as I sense we're going to be right where we were last year:

Wonderin' how a good redskin year went bad so fast.

Posted by: MistaMoe | November 3, 2010 8:07 AM |

I agree we should franchise if we have to, but by all means trade him for picks (you should know how I feel about our picks by now).

although the game is played out on the field, I think this offseason will be more important than the remainder of this season though. unless we're in the position to get into the playoffs, which is getting more improbable by the game, that is

It hasn't "gone bad" and it hasn't been fast. We're eight games into the season -- half way through. This time last year we were 2-6. Now we're 4-4 and we've been competitive in every game this year. That's good, not bad.

There are eight games to go. We can be a playoff team IF McNabb steps up his game like Shanahan was expecting when he gave up two picks for the guy. That's not bad.

Shanahan's shown his cards. Now let's see what McNabb is holding. Personally, I'm looking forward to the next eight games. This should be good.

Hey Redskinhead....so what if they "10 yards on 8 carries"...keep running the ball...eventually you wear down a defense and allow play-action to be effective. There must be an over-riding commitment to the run.

I see where the current offense in it's incarnation is allowing McNabb to get clobbered. I don't see the reason to continue this pattern.

Posted by: gallrick | November 3, 2010 8:17 AM
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How do you wear down a defense when you are three downs and out every series and they are marching from one end of the field to the other? This offensive line isn't exactly built for smashmouth football: I think they ran up the middle a grand total of one play in the Detroit game and, if memory serves, that was for a loss.

On a list of MILF's a mile long, she'd be like at the third mile marker...

Posted by: RedSkinHead | November 3, 2010 8:13 AM

LOL...I'm man enough to admit that punchline is way better than mine.

I'm totally stealing that. You've been forewarned.

Posted by: brownwood26 | November 3, 2010 8:20 AM
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You can only use it if you knock off that bang Pelosi stuff. I ain't going to sleep right for a week just thinking about that.

Breaking News: Randy Moss would like to play with Donovan McNabb, be coached by Shanny, and play for the Washingon Redskins.

Posted by: roccoskins | November 3, 2010 8:19 AM

Not so Breaking News: So would most WRs.

Unless we need a guy to dog it on run plays, "play when he wants to play", and b*tch about the food at Redskins Park while humping a stuffed horse, then I'd take a pass. He can take the drama to another NFL city...we're all stocked up at Redskins Park...

Do the skins coaches know that it is legal to roll the QB out on some plays? And it is legal to run a hurry up offense. Also vary the snap count. All of these things would help an offense counteract a defensive push.

I still feel that this offensive line is clearly better suited to running the ball than passing. If the Redskins commit to this, they will eventually break some runs and take the bite out of a pass rush.

Posted by: hessone | November 3, 2010 8:26 AM
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Sort of. We could be a run first team if we did more than toss it right. I guess my gripe is the offense is becoming predictable. Let the fullback run the football every now and then. Run the end around with Banks. Run the shotgun draw.

I think teams have learned that the way to play the Skins is to not let your outside defender give up the outside. They're taking the corner away. All the defenders up the middle have to do is bull rush straight ahead because they know the run is not coming to them and if it is a pass they are right there to greet the quarterback.

Thats what you get for expectin' a good year from a team thats clearly in rebuild mode. Hell, We matched our previous' year's record at the bye week. Shanny did make a goofball decision, but I'll take Shanny's decision making even with the mistakes over the Zorn and Cerrato braintrust for the long term.

Besides I'm more worried about a country that seems to want to put the same people back in power who screwed it up in the first place. That alone puts the skins record in perspective for me.

Gallrick, understand that this is a run-first offense. But when you get behind or the run is going NOWHERE like it was on Sunday, you have go to the air. Period.

And we need to wrap our heads around the reality that the Lions just weren't a good matchup for us on that day. They're good in their front 4, our O-line is bad, plus they were coming off a bye. I didn't see us winning that game under those circumstances.

It's all about DM... What message does this send? Are his feelings hurt??? He only makes millions. The only controversy is what the talking heads dream up to keep selling ad time covering our soap opera.

Now that she's out of a job, I'd like to offer Nancy Pelosi a position on my staff. Take that however you want...

Posted by: brownwood26 | November 3, 2010 7:12 AM

I'll stick with Megan Fox and her thumbs..

Floud- Shannahan pulls McNabb and he takes the heat and McNabb all but gets a pass for having a terrible season. True and not that it would have made a difference leaving McNabb in...but you can't do it for Rex.

Nice post Brian. It's nice to see someone using statistics to discuss football in a meaningful way. Don't let all the negativity from Redskins fans get you down...I look forward to reading your post each week.

Although, if someone told you in 2006 that midway through the 2010 season Randy Moss, Shawne Merriman, and Donovan McNabb would be up for grabs on waivers you'd have that person committed to the nearest looney bin...

"Now we know. Trading Donovan McNabb wasn't just about the Eagles' brass wanting Kevin Kolb to get a shot at being the starting quarterback. They no longer wanted McNabb for all the reasons Mike Shanahan didn't want him on Sunday.

Shanahan can call it "cardiovascular endurance" or blame McNabb's loose grip on the Washington Redskins' two-minute offense. But Shanahan didn't want McNabb as his quarterback with the game against Detroit on the line with 1 minute, 45 seconds to play because McNabb is not clutch in those situations, not anymore.

DM5 can still pull it off. One thing you have to know about Shanny is that he is a great motivator. This benching may help DM5 finally get off his butt and play the way he could. The reporter from Philly is right though. We are seeing what Andy Reid knew when he got rid of him.

Not a long term solution but it would be nice if DM5 played to the level he is capable of this year.

It's all about DM... What message does this send? Are his feelings hurt??? He only makes millions. The only controversy is what the talking heads dream up to keep selling ad time covering our soap opera.

Posted by: outsourced_in_va | November 3, 2010 8:50 AM | Report abuse

Gee...I thought it was all about "how are we gonna beat Detroit?"...Shanny thought Rex Grossman gave us the better chance; that's pretty freakin nuts, eh?

I think a better offseason, as for WR's, is getting Jocoby Jones from the Texans via Free Agency. Then drafing either AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Johnathen Baldwin. Rather than picking up Vincent Jackson. All those players are just as big, some even bigger than VJ83. They will come somewhat cheaper. They are all super fast, unlike VJ83, and it will help us build for he future.

I think a better offseason, as for WR's, is getting Jocoby Jones from the Texans via Free Agency. Then drafing either AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Johnathen Baldwin. Rather than picking up Vincent Jackson. All those players are just as big, some even bigger than VJ83. They will come somewhat cheaper. They are all super fast, unlike VJ83, and it will help us build for he future.

Posted by: roccoskins | November 3, 2010 9:24 AM

Jacoby Jones? Oh good...another mediocre WR. Can't wait...

And not to get into VJ all over again, but dude is a big target, great blocker, and fast (enough). Shanahan has morning wood for this guy and from what I've seen, he's a perfect fit for what he likes to do.

I think a better offseason, as for WR's, is getting Jocoby Jones from the Texans via Free Agency. Then drafing either AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Johnathen Baldwin. Rather than picking up Vincent Jackson. All those players are just as big, some even bigger than VJ83. They will come somewhat cheaper. They are all super fast, unlike VJ83, and it will help us build for he future.

Off topic here, but if Torry Holt is gonna make a career in broadcasting (he's not half bad, by the way), I'ma need him to get that mangled middle finger fixed. He's pretty animated and talks with his hands a lot for a guy who's basically flipping the bird to people behind him. Dude makes Brian Baldinger look like a hand model...

I prefer Jocoby Jones and Julio Jones, than just Vincent Jackson. Vincent is a good WR, but he is not top tier. I think Julio Jones will remind Shanny of Brandon Marshall (on the field). Julio Jones and AJ Green have a lot of potential. Jacoby is a upgrade from Joey or the williams guy on our roster. But like I said, I don't see us getting a (big contract type) WR in Free Agency. We need Logan Minkins (he costs a lot). Get WR in the 1st round. A center in the 2nd round.

could be brown, but unless they get a new C, and at least one new G, then its gonna be lather rinse repeat of what we're seeing now...do we have a 4th round pick...

Posted by: BeantownGreg1 | November 3, 2010 9:53 AM

You're preachin' to the choir, dude...but we could get a good C/G in the middle rounds, probably not true about a NT. Plus the need to get a top-shelf G in the draft is reduced if we reel in a guy like Mankins.

And I'll take it a step further...he's better than what you'll get on the FA market or in the draft (for 2011, at least).

I just found a stat that's pretty interesting...for all the talk about how McNabb isn't clutch and can't run the 2 minute drill: dude has 24 career come-from-behind victories. The EXACT same number as Tom Brady.

That tells me he's been bad this year not because he sucks...but because he's playing with a subpar supporting cast in a system he's still trying to learn. Nothing to see here, folks...

Redskin thoughts:
Somebody please help me understand:
How does Raymer… oh sorry Rabach continue to have a job?? (They even gave him a contract extension last summer. They must didn’t watch the Dallas games last year.)
How does a 285lb interior lineman start in todays NFL against 350lb monsters??? (Lightsteiger absolutely sucks)
How can a coaching staff come out of training camp with A Carter as an outside lb (he moved like my grandfather in open space, it was comical watchin him at lb in the preseason???
Why does it take a staff so long to figure out that you don’t put your most athletic talented def lineman at nose guard???
Im beginning to think that Shanny and the staff are retards!
At least I know Kyle Shanny’s problem. He can’t think straight he is always hungry. Clearly the young man needs a meal. Just look at him!!!

Redskin thoughts:
Somebody please help me understand:
How does Raymer… oh sorry Rabach continue to have a job?? (They even gave him a contract extension last summer. They must didn’t watch the Dallas games last year.)
How does a 285lb interior lineman start in todays NFL against 350lb monsters??? (Lightsteiger absolutely sucks)
How can a coaching staff come out of training camp with A Carter as an outside lb (he moved like my grandfather in open space, it was comical watchin him at lb in the preseason???
Why does it take a staff so long to figure out that you don’t put your most athletic talented def lineman at nose guard???
Im beginning to think that Shanny and the staff are retards!
At least I know Kyle Shanny’s problem. He can’t think straight he is always hungry. Clearly the young man needs a meal. Just look at him!!!

"I just found a stat that's pretty interesting...for all the talk about how McNabb isn't clutch and can't run the 2 minute drill: dude has 24 career come-from-behind victories. The EXACT same number as Tom Brady."

Please tell me you are not comparing DM to Brady. Please. They may have the same number of comebacks according to your stats but do the stats tell you how many "blown" combacks Brady had compared to DM? I bet you DM has bown a bunch more. And that's the issue here. He has sucked in cluth time here in DC (not all on him I agree but up to the QB to pull it off isn't it?). Did u see what he did against Indy in last two minutes? No clue my man. That had nothing to do with oline protection. Overthrowing and underthrowing receivers consistently? When do you see Brady do that for AN ENTIRE Game? Let alone an ENITRE 8 games? Houston was the only exception. Why can't he be that consistent all the time? That;s the question. How does the coach get an old-timer to be consistent? Can he learn that at this stage of the game? He has never been consistent so I am not optimistic. It's not over and I hope the ENTIRE team comes out swinging on MNF. Let's see if they're a team of warriors or a bunch of girls. But if DM continues to play the same, I do not care what anyone else says, we will be picking right along side the crygirls next draft.

When will everyone get it? This team is rebuilding. The owners won't say it. The coach won't say it. The players won't admit it. The fans won't admit it. McNabb is a has-been, short term, solution to keep butts in the seats and buying watered down beer. Depressing and not worth the time anymore.

It was a mistake to substitute on the last series unless the QB was hurt...take McNabb and Grossman out of the equation..it would normally be a mistake in an intramural football game..on the other hand what person who has been a coach, manager,preacher, or whatever has not made a mistake in the middle of a crisis because they thought the alternative would bring better result?....far too much made of this incident..far too much evidence on both sides of the issue to make a case....far too many media writers making a far worse mistake by making it a racial issue and by labeling the Coach dumb and others saying the QB has been lazy...enough ..it is(was) a football game that is over...no more or less...far more important things in the Country yesterday...how about the millions, rather billions, that were spent on an election which could have gone to help the economy or certainly help others in need.....that is a real issue...

hey stats guy - can you do an analysis of what percentage of plays that Rabach gets a) pushed back into the RB, b) pushed back more than 5 yrds, and c)knocked flat on his a$$ in comparison to other NFL centers?

And I'll take it a step further...he's better than what you'll get on the FA market or in the draft (for 2011, at least).

I just found a stat that's pretty interesting...for all the talk about how McNabb isn't clutch and can't run the 2 minute drill: dude has 24 career come-from-behind victories. The EXACT same number as Tom Brady.

That tells me he's been bad this year not because he sucks...but because he's playing with a subpar supporting cast in a system he's still trying to learn. Nothing to see here, folks...

Posted by: brownwood26 | November 3, 2010 10:10 AM | Report abuse

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Well put!!! McNabb is soooooo not the problem here. This whole offense sucks and it's starts with our joke O-line. We have NO receivers and no running back for that matter. The big question should be DOES MCNABB HAVE EVEN ONE THING ON THIS OFFENSE TO HELP HIM SUCCEED?? That would be NO!!!

"Oh, and F this thread altogether. F statistical analysis on why benching McNabb was a bad idea when we have THE ACTUAL RESULT TELLING US THE SAME SH*T!!!!Posted by: brownwood26"

Because it tells us that if they hadn't benched him, there was a good chance the Skins would have pulled it out. The result of the game itself doesn't prove that. Could have been a fluke. The stats guy is suggesting it wasn't -- just a bad coaching decision.

"can you do an analysis of what percentage of plays that Rabach gets a) pushed back into the RB, b) pushed back more than 5 yrds, and c)knocked flat on his a$$ in comparison to other NFL centers?Posted by: coparker5"

You can do that yourself. Here's how: first, get one of those cable packages covering, say, all the NFC East games. Tape the games. Then for the remainder of the season, chart every play (should be no problem, you're watching the games, right?), noting the things you're interested in. Compare Rabach with the starting centers for Dallas, the Jints, and the Iggles. See how he compares.

When it's over, at least you'll know if you were right in your initial perception.

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