Trade Option: Josh Willingham

We may have found an outfielder worthy of replacing Jayson Werth (that is, if Werth doesn’t return, of course). That’s not to say Josh Willingham is on the same level as Werth as a fielder or hitter – clearly, he’s not as the numbers will prove. Willingham is, however, an inexpensive option should the Phillies be forced to move on.

Over the past five seasons, Willingham has become a familiar face in these parts, stopping through with the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals. Over those five years, he’s been remarkably consistent. Willingham’s 162-game average over his career his 25 home runs, 82 RBI, and a .268 average. Not bad for a guy who gets very little publicity throughout the major leagues.

Turns out, Jayson Werth’s 162-game average is extremely similar: 25 home runs, 85 RBI, and .272 average. “The Hammer” also has an OPS of .841 during his career, just seven points lower than Werth’s.

Topping out at 26 home runs in 2006 and 89 RBI in 2007, Willingham has some pop from the corner outfield position. Sure, you say – hitting for power is nice, but can he hit lefties? That’s been the offseason-old question thus far for anyone who would step into the Phillies lineup.

It turns out that Willingham has handled left-handed pitching nearly the same as he handles right-handed pitching. His .267 career average against southpaws is nothing to write home about unless you’re comparing that number to a guy like Carlos Quentin (.212 vs. lefties). That sort of stability against lefties from the right side is all the Phillies could ask for as they attempt to find a suitable right fielder.

Over the past two seasons, Werth has separated himself from the rest, becoming an elite outfielder. His .921 OPS was 73 points higher than The Hammer’s in 2010. The issue last season for Willingham was his knee. The 31-year old is expected to be ready for 2011 after having surgery to fix his left meniscus in August. He finished the ’10 season with a .268/16/58 stat line in only 114 games and 450 plate appearances for the 69-93 Nats.

The good news is, Willingham is still relatively young. Werth didn’t hit his stride until he was close to 30 and benefited from an insanely well-rounded offense to boost those overall numbers. Could Willingham use that same talented Phillies lineup to take the next step as a hitter and flourish? Never has he been part of an offense like the one seen in Philly over the past few seasons.

One thing Josh Willingham is not known for is his defensive prowess. He’ll never be mistaken for Jayson Werth with the glove which is why his UZR has been a negative number in four of his five full seasons in the outfield. While not fleet of foot, Willingham doesn’t screw up in the field often. Last year he committed just one error, and in nearly 5,000 innings in the outfield he’s put up just 16 “E’s.”

“Five-tool player” and “defensive stalwart” are titles that will never be used as descriptors for Willingham, and that’s OK. You know what you get with the guy: a fairly potent bat from the right side and average defense in right field. The question is, will he become available?

Two weeks ago, Adam Kilgore of the Washintgon Post wrote that Willingham was unlikely to receive an extension from the Nationals, meaning they could offer him another one-year deal or trade him.

CHANCES: With his salary expected to rise from $4.6 million to somewhere around $6 million for the upcoming season, that’s still within Ruben Amaro’s wheelhouse. The prevailing thought is that Willingham could be available and might be a decent addition to the Phillies. He’s also a guy who can cost-effectively take over in left field after Raul Ibanez leaves town. I give this deal five out of 10 Ruben Head’s.

Adding Willingham would basically be saying that they don’t trust BenFran to take on a bigger role in the OF. At the same time, adding Willingham to the current group of OFs would create a pretty deep 5 man outfield group

The problem then becomes the backup INFs. The Phills only have one guy (Valdez) who can play 3B, SS, and 2B and two backup 1Bmen. They really need to add another decent hitting INF such as Bill Hall. The guy plays everywhere. Any chance we can get a write up him?

The big splash for me is cleaning out the overpaid garbage on this roster and turning some of it over to younger, hungrier players. Even Willingham would be fine to use in conjunction with Brown because he has not gotten a big payday and has some fire left in him whereas a lot of our players are running on pure talent alone, and the fight has long since left them. Werth is a perfect example of a player who will not be nearly as good once he gets paid as he was over the past few seasons.

After Werth is replaced, next up is signing a few bullpen arms, a left and a right hander. Then you try and get rid of Ibanez, possibly Blanton, quietly field phone calls for Chase Utley and Rollins JUST in case someone is willing to blow you away for their services.

Ibanez can’t hit lefties at all and should never face them in the regular season. You platoon Ibanez and Franciso all year depending on who they face and let Brown face lefties. If we keep Werth great if not Willingham will be fine.

Late innings in a close game, RISP, with a tough lefty reliever on the mound, I’d consider putting in a righty for Brown. If you are going to platoon him, you might as well package him with Ibanez, trade him to the highest bidder, and resign Werth. Brown was nearly neutral in the minors, platooning him now will retard his development. Taking the lumps early will pay off in the long haul.

I like Willingham also, but would prefer to see him in left, and am not sure he is a significant upgrade to Ben Fran (a little better bat, slower, worse defense).

I actually like Josh’s idea about Bill Hall as an all-round utility player. He does play everywhere and with some power. Plus he bats right handed. He is coming off a huge contract , but he reminds me a little of Mariano Duncan. How many players can play all infield and outfield positions and have the ability to hit 20 homers ?

Manny are you kidding me??? Why not add Bonds too and really have the circus come to town…

The Phils could do worse than Willingham as a stop-gap in right field with a bat that could contribute in the heart of the line up.

The Phils don’t need to make a major move just because it looks good to the fans. The priority is keeping Werth, making an offer to Cliff Lee and past that it’s a case of plugging holes because there aren’t many guys out there worth paying.

Like ‘people’ (our ‘friend’ Keith Law) said the Cubs can’t win with Marlon Byrd in CF, the Phillies can’t expect to win with Ben Fran as our everyday RF. Willingham is a guy who can drive runs in and contribute as much or as little as the rest of the team plays.

The core contributors are (for the most part) in place. Brown is the future of the outfield and if Werth doesn’t re-sign then it’s a case of finding a guy who can contribute like it’s a case of finding guys who can contribute in the pen.

There’s such thing as too many chefs in the kitchen, we have enough chefs but I think we’ll all agree their individual play has to be better on offense.

Well NJ – a lineup where Willingham replaces Werth is not a very potent one. My question is: Why would we resign Lee? I don’t understands that? I guess if we could trade Hamels for serious O or Oswalt for offense, then it would make some sense. And then only “some”.

Sooooo while it’s nice to discuss Willingham, who do the Phils offer to take him away from a divisional rival? What would they offer that other teams looking for corner OF bats (Mets, Braves, Mariners, etc.) could not top, short of Domonic Brown? I just don’t see it happening.

Aside from the fact that this is completely unfeasible, an OF of Ibanez/Victornino/Willingham would be downright atrocious and heavily impact the success of the pitching staff. Brown’s superior defense will make up for any offensive difference between he and Willingham. I’ll bet that Brown and Willingham produce the same WAR, and Brown is ours and at really low cost. No thanks. The only worse solution would be trying to get Manny and have his corpse patrolling RF.

I’m not saying Willingham will offensively replace Jayson Werth. I’m saying if Werth walks then I’d rather take a one or two year deal for an inexpensive veteran everyday player who can drive in runs and Willingham fits the bill. To me it’s a case of biding your time with a player who can contribute until Brown is ready to be an everyday player and then invest in a successor to Ibanez when his deals up.

It’s not about who patrols RF if it’s not Jayson Werth in 2011. It has to be about Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ibanez being more consistent hitters that don’t arbitrarily make outs against mediocre pitching like they did much of last year. As far as I’m concerned if you role guys are taking the heat for not having a good season then its masking a bigger issue that the core guys aren’t the ones getting it done.

The core needs to be better, we don’t need to go shopping just because its shopping season.

(With Lee it’s clear the Phils are at least going to make an offer in case the market goes all Matt Holliday and they do have a chance at bringing him back which would be a coup)

A lot of this talk not only depends on the future of Jayson, but also does the FO think Dom Brown is ready to be everyday RF and sitting either Brown or Raul against lefties and playing Ben Fran. Unlilke most of you on here, unless you find a long term solution of RH bat in RF and seasoning Dom another year until Raul is gone then move Dom Brown to left. The “big” deal should be Upton, now that is a deal I could live with.

Willingham is a good option. Not a great one, but a good one if we can’t keep Werth.

Matt Rizzotti would be a player the Nats might covet since they don’t seem to want Adam Dunn anymore. Rizzotti who could become rule 5 if we don’t trade him soon could bring Willingham and a prospect or two.

@Churchmouse- I’m asking rhetorically, I don’t want nor do I deserve an answer. How much did you lose? It must have been really bad for you to go on like this. Some of your points are valid, I have no argument except this.

Sometimes things just are what they are, you’ll do yourself nor anyone else any good going on like this. If you can’t let it go, it will drive you crazy, it’s terrible for your health. But most importantly, no one here can help you, no one here can change what has happened. Write the FO, they made the decision. Not the player, and certainly not us.

(Forget the starters) Bell, Bronxton, Capps, Pap, Nathan and Valverde are due to be free agents as well as Fatty Jenks. And Betancourt, Wuertz, Linebrink, Coffee, Matt Thornton and Joel Zumaya are also due to be free agents.

If I was RAJ I’d be keeping as much cash and spots on the roster open to add a couple of those names.

Look – Let me get to the nub of my Manny thing. And it won’t work bvecause the preconditions under which I would sign him would never be met. They would be: 1) He could convince me that he’s ready to play well with others; 2) he still wanted to play baseball; 3) He could still hit; 4) He came with basically a “make good” contract. All four of those things will not happene and thats why Manny will never happen. But IF they did, you would have to seriously think about signing him. NJ- I still don’t understand the purpose of signing Cliff Lee. I read your theory regarding “core” players and I agree with it. To me, Rollins, Utley and Ryan and Chooch are your four core players. Ibanez is not one. Rollins is a seriously flawed offensive player but he is capable of a renaissance. I hope they all have better years and I think that most of them will.

Brown may be the “future of the outfield,” but he’s probably not the present.

Why are we even discussing all of these defensive downgrades, people who can’t hit lefties, head cases, etc? If a platoon is the answer, the Phils don’t really need to sign anyone, and so far, none of the regulars being discussed are worth a damn, or would cost too many prospects. If the front office is really thinking young, they shouldn’t trade youth for a 31 year old defensive slug like Willingham.

Dipsy- If not saying the Phils should or will sign Cliff Lee, I’m saying they’ve very openly been reported to be one of the teams who are making him an offer. If and its very unlikely he likes the Phils offer then it’s a certainty that Oswalt’s 2012 option won’t be exercised and Cole might be traded.

The Phils know and love Lee, it’s a long-shot but their going to make an offer to see if he does take it and thats the logic. RAJ traded Lee because he expects him to end up the second highest paid pitcher in baseball history and we could re-sign Halladay instead. If the Phils can lock in Halladay and Lee for several years their going to adapt to that but they weren’t going to put themselves in a position to lose him and get nothing with nothing in place going forward.

Chooch isn’t a core offensive player, he’s a gritty no.8 hitter who’s important to the soul of the team. Rollins is a core guy as the lead-off man (when healthy) and then your 3-5 are the core. The rest really should be there to support which is why you add a guy like Polanco instead of trying to put another explosive bat there.

If Rollins, Utley, Howard are performing I expect guys like Chooch, Polanco and Ibanez to have decent if not good years. If Rollins, Utley and Howard aren’t then I’m not going to focus on who we added in right or vent on Ibanez because I don’t expect those guys to be our major players, I expect them to support them as much as they are capable. You can add an all-star at every position but all you end up with is 9 guys plus your closer and set-up man looking around wondering who’s going to be the one to turn up.

George if you were RAJ would you feel comfortable having Ibanez, Ben Fran and add a 4th outfielder as your corner OF bats? I can certainly see the logic in that if you think Ben Fran can handle his bat for an extended period of time with pressure to drive in runs.

I’m sorry – The Phils have not picked up Oswalt’s option? I assumed they had or will. Well, I know and love Lee. If you could clear out a good part of Blanton along with it then I wouldn’t have a problem with it.

So, Dipsy, if all of those “preconditions” that you mention won’t happen….then why even bring the Manny thing up to begin with? It’s like saying “If it’s hot out today, I’ll jump in the swimming pool”. Well, that ain’t gonna happen unless you’re a freaking penguin or a polar bear.

Chuck – Chucky baby, Chucky Baby, Chucky Baby – Let me replace “never” with “probably not gonna happen”. Crazier things have happened. I didn’t mean to make it sound like the wildest hypothetical in the world but if I did, my bad. Who knows what could happen when Manny finds himself unsigned on April 15. He could feel the crunch and ask for absolution.

If I were Amaro, I wouldn’t be completely comfortable with Ibanez, Victorino, Francisco, and a fourth guy. But Ibanez and Vic probably in locks, so right field might end up as a platoon situation. Were I Amaro, I’d be looking at the options and probably be deciding that there isn’t much out there that’s better than a Francisco/Brown platoon unless that player cost too much in young prospects or another major league player. The Phils can’t afford to give up an infielder or catcher, and the only pitchers they would trade are back of rotation types who still won’t bring back a premium right fielder.

In other words, Francisco/Brown would make a lot of sense rather than paying out for Francoeur, Ramirez, or even Willingham to replace Ben Fran. He’s still really cheap, does a pretty decent job, and won’t cost any prospects.

Here’s what I think George – I think he finds a RH replacement for Werth but in the long run what I believe or hope will happen is something like this:

Vic in CF – nothing changes

I kinda like the idea of a Willignham signing but with the option of starting him in RF and platooning him in LF with Raul. Of course, if Raul stumbles like he did last year out of the gate, let Willingham play more in LF and see what Brown has to offer then as a #1 RF. That kid has lots of promise, upside and give him the position (RF) to lose, its his to manage. Of course, if Raul shows life in LF, Willingham and Brown would somehow work out in RF.

Jenkins was originally signed to be our probable RF back in 08. He platooned with Shane if you who just flat out proved he belonged there. Hell, Jenkins was a former AS, had some decent power and a career BA of about .280.

If you let Raul and Willingham fend for the LF spot and occasionally put Willingham in RF in place of Brown, the cream will float and there will be decent options.

Brooks – I agree with you my friend. That would totally be the way to do it. Let the best two of the three get the time. You hope one is Brown because he just has to play or there is no point having him up here. Willingham can also sub in for Utley (Polanco moving over) once every three weeks or so. I like his versatility but I don’t like his pricetag. But he’s a nice player.

You kinda got me on that infield comment for a sec Dip – I was about to scatter and check it out… = )

Whoever winds up distinguishing themselves, the Phils wont lose. Odds and hopes are of course with D. Brown, lots of upside but if Willingham manages to ursurp our friend in LF, the Phils and us win out. If Raul’s bat remembers the speed which he displayed early last year he is and has been a formidable offensive threat, we would probably be witnessing some damn good baseball from him. If Raul doesnt produce and the leash doesnt have to be that short, Willingham takes over. Like I said, no loss for the Phils.

So like I said before, with average years from Howard, Utley, Vic, Jrol – what a bonus for a stud like Brown to shine and someone like Willingham or Raul to back it all up. I know, I look for the stars to shine.. Lots of promise, I’m starting to get pumped JAY

Josh, lets at least try to smell the roses here! We really dont know what Willingham might be looking for yet do we? I believe I read it could be around the 6 mil mark, that is less than what we were paying Jayson this past year. What exactly would you do with Hall? And how do you firmly address the situation in RF? Let those two duke it out, we’ll win.

Oh come on. Would philly fans really be content with a career.268 hitter? it’s like a younger ibanez. except when ibanez was younger, he was better than a .268 hitter! I think that Brown will no doubt hit at LEAST .260, so i wouldn’t spend the extra money on someone who will hit minimally better. We should either go big (Justin upton, carl crawford, jayson werth, or even manny) or leave things the way they are….

Brooks…..Last year Hall was the BoSox jack of all trades player. I say why not do the same with him on the Phills? He plays 3-4 games a week between RF, LF, 3B, SS, and 2B. I think it would serve all of those guys well to be more rested. Not only that, but he is a much better insurance policy than Valdez as an INF starter.

I’m, not saying I don’t like Willingham, but I think with BenFran, Dom Brown, and Raul already taking a huge potion of the playing time in the corner OF spots, Willingham’s talents are wasted.

My point is that as the roster looks currently, Willingham would have to be the stopgap/platoon for Dom Brown. If that is the case, then one of the other bench players (benfran, gload, or sweeny) must be replaced with someone who can play middle inf. A guy like Bill Hall can fill both of those needs.

The only way Willingham truly fits on this team is if Raul is out and he takes over as the full time LF bc Dom Brown is going to be at least the platooning RF next year (assuming Werth is gone).