Monday, 17 September 2012

With the indexes moderately declining, the VIX remained flat. It remains an entirely fearless market.

VIX'60min

VIX, daily

Summary

VIX in the mid 14s reflects an incredibly confident market. Considering the increasing unrest in the middle-east - amongst many other issues, its amazing to see a market so utterly complacent, but then..the Bernanke has our backs..right ?

The VIX does look set for at least a few higher closes later this week. A move to 16/18 seems very likely, but that will probably be it for this new cycle.

A relatively quiet Monday, but it will suffice to continue what is a topping phase in the indexes.

IWM

Sp

Transports

Summary

There isn't too much to note today. Arguably, the transports/Rus'2000 are again leading the way, and warning of declines in the main sp/dow indexes later this week. A move to 1430 seems very viable, with VIX in 16/18 zone. Considering the underlying QE now underway, it seems very unlikely we'll take out the recent low of 1430, never mind the more important low of 1397.

So, a move to 1430...yet another higher low..and then take out the recent high of 1474.

Good morning, and welcome to another week, we're already now into the second half of September.

Without question we are due a multi-day down cycle, a move to 1430/20 seems likely, but that will almost certainly..be it. So, all those bears looking for autumnal doom, err, no...they are going to be disappointed.

sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

A little weakness, but we could still close flat or even a little higher today.

Regardless, I do expect at leat 1430 to be hit, probably by late Wednesday or Thursday.

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