"Commentary from P.M. Carpenter"

April 24, 2017

Is there really "no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters"?

Krugman summarizes, and rhetorically asks: "The Trump agenda so far is absolutely indistinguishable from what one might have expected from, say, Ted Cruz. It’s just voodoo [economics] with extra bad math. Was that what his supporters expected?"

The answer, or rather one answer — from an ABC News/Washington Post poll — is not being framed rhetorically. The pollster, Gary Langer (of Langer Research Associates), concedes that Trump "approaches his 100th day in office with the lowest approval rating at this point of any president in polls since 1945." Yet the poll, adds Langer, "finds no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters."

"No evidence" is a stretch, and, accordingly, Langer goes on to at least mildly contradict his own claim. "Among those who report having voted for [Trump] in November," he writes, "96 percent today say it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it." I'm a bit vague on the other 2 percent who don't regret having cast the wrong vote. But fair enough. Let's accept that a "mere 2 percent" are willing to admit to a pollster (that in itself is significant) that they wouldn't again vote for Trump.

When recalling Trump's margins of victory in key swing states, that mere 2 percent looms bigly. In Michigan, Trump won by only 0.3 percent; in Wisconsin, by 1.0 percent; and in Pennsylvania, by 1.2 percent. One can easily see the implications of a now-2-percent disaffection rate.

Langer also observes that "if a rerun of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote." That could be. The popular vote/Electoral College outcome, however, might simply flip. The above states account for 46 Electoral votes, and if today's 2-percent disaffection rate applied throughout those states, then Trump's total would drop to 258 (12 shy of victory).

What's more, Trump's numbers in general are just horrible — and here, there is indeed "no evidence" that they'll improve. "Majorities say Trump lacks … judgment and … [a proper] temperament"; they "doubt his honesty and trustworthiness"; they "see him as out of touch" with the average citizen; they recognize that "he hasn't accomplished much[?] in his first 100 days"; and they prefer that he "follow a consistent set of principles in setting policy," which, rather sorrowfully, they know he does not. Is there a conscious soul who believes that, say, Trump's temperament will ever morph presidential — or that he'll suddenly be deemed honest and trustworthy?

Maybe the simplest approach to quantifying the swelling disaster of Trump is to remember that 100 days into Obama's presidency, he possessed a net 43-percent approval rating. Trump has a net underwater rating of 11 percent; and alas, he still has another five days to gurgle even lower.

Is this, as Krugman asks overall, what Trump's supporters expected? Hell no. They believed his first 100 days would be — as he promised — absolutely magnificent, bubbling with abundant policy victories and dazzling the non-believers into humbled submission. Instead, his first 100 days have merely foreshadowed the next 1,356: four uninterrupted years of a deepening, and increasingly observable, abyss.

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Is there really "no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters"?

Krugman summarizes, and rhetorically asks: "The Trump agenda so far is absolutely indistinguishable from what one might have expected from, say, Ted Cruz. It’s just voodoo [economics] with extra bad math. Was that what his supporters expected?"

The answer, or rather one answer — from an ABC News/Washington Post poll — is not being framed rhetorically. The pollster, Gary Langer (of Langer Research Associates), concedes that Trump "approaches his 100th day in office with the lowest approval rating at this point of any president in polls since 1945." Yet the poll, adds Langer, "finds no evidence of buyer's remorse among Trump supporters."

"No evidence" is a stretch, and, accordingly, Langer goes on to at least mildly contradict his own claim. "Among those who report having voted for [Trump] in November," he writes, "96 percent today say it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it." I'm a bit vague on the other 2 percent who don't regret having cast the wrong vote. But fair enough. Let's accept that a "mere 2 percent" are willing to admit to a pollster (that in itself is significant) that they wouldn't again vote for Trump.

When recalling Trump's margins of victory in key swing states, that mere 2 percent looms bigly. In Michigan, Trump won by only 0.3 percent; in Wisconsin, by 1.0 percent; and in Pennsylvania, by 1.2 percent. One can easily see the implications of a now-2-percent disaffection rate.

Langer also observes that "if a rerun of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote." That could be. The popular vote/Electoral College outcome, however, might simply flip. The above states account for 46 Electoral votes, and if today's 2-percent disaffection rate applied throughout those states, then Trump's total would drop to 258 (12 shy of victory).

What's more, Trump's numbers in general are just horrible — and here, there is indeed "no evidence" that they'll improve. "Majorities say Trump lacks … judgment and … [a proper] temperament"; they "doubt his honesty and trustworthiness"; they "see him as out of touch" with the average citizen; they recognize that "he hasn't accomplished much[?] in his first 100 days"; and they prefer that he "follow a consistent set of principles in setting policy," which, rather sorrowfully, they know he does not. Is there a conscious soul who believes that, say, Trump's temperament will ever morph presidential — or that he'll suddenly be deemed honest and trustworthy?

Maybe the simplest approach to quantifying the swelling disaster of Trump is to remember that 100 days into Obama's presidency, he possessed a net 43-percent approval rating. Trump has a net underwater rating of 11 percent; and alas, he still has another five days to gurgle even lower.

Is this, as Krugman asks overall, what Trump's supporters expected? Hell no. They believed his first 100 days would be — as he promised — absolutely magnificent, bubbling with abundant policy victories and dazzling the non-believers into humbled submission. Instead, his first 100 days have merely foreshadowed the next 1,356: four uninterrupted years of a deepening, and increasingly observable, abyss.