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Syracuse lacrosse: Orange still harbors ACC tournament hopes

John Desko Media Day

Syracuse coach John Desko and the Orange can still earn as high as the No. 3 seed in the ACC tournament, but would face defending national champion Duke if it achieves that slot.
(Stephen D. Cannerelli | scannerelli@syracuse.com)

Syracuse could have found itself relegated to the ACC's Saturday showcase game (also known as the game featuring the bottom two teams in the conference during the league's tournament weekend) had Notre Dame and Virginia won over the weekend.

Instead, the Fighting Irish absorbed a 15-7 loss at home to Duke, and Virginia was edged 11-10 at North Carolina, keeping the Orange (6-3, 1-3 ACC) very much in the conference tournament hunt.

Only three conference games remain: Duke's visit to Virginia on Friday; North Carolina's trek to Syracuse on Saturday; and the April 19 date between Maryland and Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind. That leaves only eight combinations of outcomes left, though for Syracuse's purposes there are three things that could happen.

The Orange is stuck in the 5 vs. 6 game against Virginia if it loses to North Carolina.

The Orange makes the main draw if it beats North Carolina and either Notre Dame or Virginia lose their conference finales.

The Orange is stuck in a three-way tie for fourth if it wins and both Notre Dame and Virginia win. More on that later.

For now, it's easy enough to list the outcomes of all eight permutations, all of which have Duke, Maryland and Notre Dame assured of semifinal slots:

ACC LACROSSE TOURNAMENT SCENARIOS

Combo

UNC/Cuse

DU/UVa

Md./ND

1

2

3

4

5/6

1

UNC

Duke

Md.

Md. (4-1)

Duke(4-1)

UNC(3-2)

ND(2-3)

UVa (1-4)/Cuse (1-4)

2

UNC

Duke

ND

Duke(4-1)

ND(3-2)

UNC(3-2)

Md.(3-2)

UVa (1-4)/Cuse (1-4)

3

UNC

UVa

Md.

Md.(4-1)

Duke(3-2)

UNC(3-2)

ND(2-3)

UVa (2-3)/Cuse (1-4)

4

UNC

UVa

ND

Duke(3-2)

ND(3-2)

UNC(3-2)

Md.(3-2)

UVa (2-3)/Cuse (1-4)

5

Cuse

Duke

Md.

Md.(4-1)

Duke(4-1)

Cuse(2-3)

ND(2-3)

UNC (2-3)/UVa (1-4)

6

Cuse

Duke

ND

Duke(4-1)

ND(3-2)

Md.(3-2)

Cuse(2-3)

UNC (2-3)/UVa (1-4)

7

Cuse

UVa

Md.

Md.(4-1)

Duke(3-2)

Cuse(2-3)

ND(2-3)

UNC (2-3)/UVa (2-3)

8

Cuse

UVa

ND

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD

TBD/TBD

Most of these scenarios are pretty simplistic, other than the last one. A quick rundown on the tiebreaks for each:

Scenario 1: Maryland bests Duke for the No. 1 seed based on its head-to-head victory on March 1. Virginia also takes fifth place (for whatever little that means) over Syracuse by virtue of its head-to-head triumph on March 1.

Scenario 2: Notre Dame gets the No. 2 seed because it would own victories over North Carolina and Maryland, while North Carolina earns the No. 3 spot because it was 1-1 against Notre Dame and Maryland. The Terrapins would have losses to both teams they are tied with and get the No. 4 seed. Virginia gets the same fairly meaningless tiebreak over Syracuse for the fifth spot.

Scenario 4: Duke and Notre Dame both went 2-1 in a mini-group with North Carolina and Maryland, while the Tar Heels and Terrapins would both be 1-2 in that mini-group. Duke's head-to-head defeat of Notre Dame gets it the No. 1 seed, while North Carolina's triumph over Maryland would get it the No. 3 seed.

Scenario 5: Maryland bests Duke for the No. 1 seed based on head-to-head victory, while Syracuse (2-0) and Notre Dame (1-1) would have the superior mini-group record in a three-way tie with North Carolina (0-2).

Scenario 7: In a four-team mini-group, Syracuse and Notre Dame would both be 2-1 and North Carolina and Virginia would be 1-2. Syracuse gets the No. 3 seed because it beat Notre Dame, and North Carolina would get the home team designation in the 5/6 game because it beat Virginia.

That leaves Scenario 8, which would require a tiebreaker to sort out both three teams tied at 3-2 (Duke, Maryland and Notre Dame) and a tiebreaker to divvy up the final three spots at 2-3 (North Carolina, Syracuse and Virginia).

In both cases, the three tied teams split with each other and have identical records against the other group of tied teams. That lead to a tiebreaker of goals allowed in common games.

For the top three spots, Maryland has given up six goals, Notre Dame 15 and Duke 17. However, Maryland and Notre Dame still have to play, which leaves that possibility in flux.

The same is the case of North Carolina/Syracuse/Virginia tie because North Carolina and Syracuse have yet to play. So far, North Carolina has yielded 10 goals, Syracuse 17 and Virginia 23. For Syracuse to win this tiebreaker, it would need to beat North Carolina by at least seven goals and allow less than six goals. (It could also win 13-6 and prompt the need for yet another tiebreaker, but that's a headache best not delved into unless absolutely necessary).