While welcoming the Chief Guest, Vice Admiral Tanveer Faiz, Commander Naval Strategic Force Command highlighted that HQ NSFC will perform a pivotal role in development and employment of the Naval Strategic Force. The Force, which is the custodian of the nation’s 2nd strike capability, will strengthen Pakistan’s policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence and ensure regional stability.

The Chief of the Naval Staff commended the quality of work in making the HQ NSFC a state of the art facility. He declared that the day marks the formal establishment of the Naval Strategic Force Command of Pakistan.

Q - Which platforms in PN can deliver nuclear weapons?

India and Pakistan are wide apart in the way Nuclear C&C has been setup. The biggest difference lies in the operational control .... while Indian assets are controlled by civilian scientists and politicians, Pakistan has entrusted their armed forces with them (anyways their politics doesn't allow civilians to have an upper hand). Or is this only a perception?

Secondly, in our setup it appears to be all military control of nuclear weapons is thru only tri-services command (SFC), whose chief directly reports to the cabinet and not to any of the service chiefs - not even to COSC.

The veil of secrecy in our setup leaves me - as common citizen - unsure of my safety in the nuclear environment. There are only questions. When war will break out, can citizens be sure that the Civilian leadership will trust the military to actually execute the order to "press the button"? Is possible lack of nuclear preparation reason why Pakistan has been getting away with terror for last 15 years? How do I know that the Mirage pilots and crew are trained and adept in the delivery of nuclear weapons?

Members of the forum should not get me wrong: my remarks are meant to trigger a debate. But there has to be a balance between blind faith and informed confidence without actually letting our secrets out.

Scientists of the Bangalore-based National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), closely monitoring the development of nuclear weapons and missiles in India’s immediate neighbourhood, have concluded that the Hatf IV Shaheen 1A missile recently test-fired by the Pakistan establishment had almost the same capabilities of the earlier Shaheen 1 and was hardly an improvement of the previous weapons system.

Contesting the claim made by Islamabad that it was an “upgraded” and “improved” version of its existing intermediate range ballistic missile, the scientists have forwarded a note to the Prime Minister’s Office saying that they did not notice much improvement in its capabilities. Pakistan had gone ahead with the test soon after India launched its long range Agni-V missile which can reach targets at a distance of 5,000 km.

Significantly enough, the report hints at the possibility that the Hatf-IV Shaheen-1A missile might have been tested only as a response to India testing the long range Agni V. The scientists could not trace any major technological development in the missile which would have necessitated this experiment. The suggestion is that the April 25 launch carried out by Pakistan was virtually needless and was prompted by the need to make a statement of belligerence.

These scientists carried out their research under the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP) of the NIAS and made their inferences after having tracked precisely 40 ballistic missile tests carried out by Pakistan since 1998. They have been monitoring the various launches of Ghauri, Shaheen 1/1A, Ghaznavi, Abdali and Shaheen 2 missiles which Islamabad has been touting with much fanfare.

In the note, the NIAS says: “Information on the launch including an image of the missile was put out by the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) of Pakistan. The news release claimed that the Hatf-IV Shaheen-1A Weapon System as an improved version of Shaheen-1 with improvements in range and technical parameters.”

Using the image of the missile put out by Pakistan, the ISSSP carried out an evaluation of Pakistan’s capability and analysed whether any new developments could be inferred from this launch to substantiate the claim of range improvement. The scientists concluded,“A comparison of the April 25th image with earlier images...shows no significant change in the length of the missile (11.5 m to 11.6 m) or any change in the re-entry part of the missile.”

In fact, the scientists have relied on various Shaheen 1 images of October 2002, March 2004 and November 2006 to compare the existing data with those of the latest launch on April 25. The study shows that the “operational flight length” of all these missiles is almost the same varying between 11.43 m to 11.62 m. The report says, “There are no changes evident in the stage configuration and the main aerodynamic fins at the end of the missile and the exhaust look similar. The overall warhead length is comparable with the other images...”

The only minor changes, which the report finds are that the forward part of the re-entry vehicle is shorter (the length in the April 2012 launch is 1.6 m compared to 2.3 m in the earlier launches) and the re-entry vehicle in the recent launch has no stabilising fins (the earlier flown configurations were equipped with a set of four fins).

According to the report, the changes seen are minor and are not inconsistent with some improvements in the re-entry vehicles including its control and avionics systems. There may be some reduction in the weight of the re-entry vehicle. “However, they do not appear to be greatly significant... and do not have much impact on the missile range.”

The report further states:“Our assessment of the range of Shaheen 1 was 673 km for a launch from Islamabad in a south eastern (Azimuth 135 degrees) direction with a 1,000 kg re-entry vehicle . We do not find any evidence from the image put out by Pakistan to change this assessment. Longer range is however possible if Pakistan has reduced the missile throw-mass to below 1,000 kg.”

This particular study suggests that the latest Pakistani missile test does not cause too much worry to the Indian establishment. There was an anticipation of such a tit-for-tat launch. Now that the data suggests that it was basically old wine in new bottle with minor tinkering, the Bangalore-based monitoring agency appears to be satisfied.

Babur is not yet deployed on any of PN's ships; looks like it is too much screwdriver giri for them to handle. Considering how nosy Khan and Munna#1 can be about their stuff , PN's best bet is the F-22P Zulfiquar class or anything in the pipeline which comes from Chipanda stable.

Another point is if Chipanda has only sold the Bakis their primitive U-235 design then the size of the package might not be small enough to fit onboard Babur which can only carry about 300kg in total payload.

Given their legendary prowess and capability in such matters I think their only reliable mode of nuke delivery is PAF Mirages and now the Bandar.

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan has acknowledged the existence of a sea-based nuclear deterrent with the recent inauguration of the Headquarters of the Naval Strategic Force Command (NSFC) by the head of the Navy, Adm. Asif Sandhila.

A May 19 press release by the military’s Inter Services Public Relations stated the NSFC “will perform a pivotal role in development and employment of the Naval Strategic Force,” and was “the custodian of the nation’s 2nd strike capability.”

Mansoor Ahmed, lecturer at Quaid-e-Azam University’s Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, and who specializes in Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs, said this is all but specific confirmation of the widely speculated submarine-launched variant of the Babur/HATF-VII (Vengeance-VII) cruise missile.

Analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said Pakistan has been working on its sea-based deterrent for some time.

“When the Babur was first revealed in 2005, it was claimed that it is mainly designed to be deployed from submarines. There was at least that speculation,” he said.

The Navy “has pretty good experience in using similar systems, for example, both submarine-launched Harpoon and Exocet use a similar system, and [the Navy] has operated both for a long time.”

Shabbir speculates that the launch method may be similar to the UGM-84 Harpoon’s method of being fired from torpedo tubes.

However, other analysts are not so certain the Navy can afford to undertake the responsibility of the nation’s second-strike capability.

Former Australian defense attaché to Islamabad Brian Cloughley said the size of Pakistan’s submarine force is too small to carry out this task.

“Pakistan’s current submarine fleet is not adequate in numbers [although well-trained] to be able to undertake detection and effective interdiction of the Indian fleet, given its size — which is increasing, even if slowly,” he said.

Currently, Pakistan’s submarine flotilla comprises two refurbished 1970s-era Agosta-70s and three 1990s-era Agosta-90B submarines. The latter are equipped with air independent propulsion (AIP) or are in the process of being retrofitted with the AIP module, and incrementally entered service from 1999.

Cloughley said interdiction of India’s fleet “must remain [the Navy’s] first priority,” and considers “conversion of the present assets to take Babur not only costly but a most regrettable diversion of budget allocation.”

“I would go so far as to say that, in present circumstances, it would be a grave error if such a program were to go ahead,” he added.

The Navy, however, has a requirement for new submarines and wants to increase their number. The Agosta-90B design has been superseded twice, once by the DCNI Scorpene, and briefly by a paper design called the Marlin before it was absorbed into the Scorpene family.

There is a confirmed requirement for 12 to 14 submarines to meet Navy expansion plans. This would allow for a constant war patrol of at least one deterrent-tasked submarine, leaving other submarines to carry out more traditional tasks.

However, Cloughley is still certain that Pakistan does not require such a capability.

“[Pakistan] has plenty of nuclear-capable SSMs and strike aircraft, and does not need a Navy-oriented second-strike capability,” he said.

The Hatf IX (NASR) has a range of 60 kilometres and can carry nuclear warheads with high accuracy and possesses shoot and scoot attributes....Pakistan’s arsenal includes short-, medium- and long-range missiles.

I just noticed one thing that no report ever mentions accuracy of any pakistani missile. the always mention like improved/better accuracy, improved guidance etc. i wonder whether they mean cep improved from 100m to 95m for a 60km range missile??in contrast india usually mentions like pinpoint accuracy, few tens of meters, single digit accuracy or 40m for agni, 20m for prithvi etc.

Even diwali rocket with additional fuel and some modification can travel a distance of 60 KM. Paki people have gone crazy they have lost their head. Just to compete with India they are firing diwali rockets and calling it a missle

60 KM range?by Murli Devi (View MyPage) on May 29, 2012 03:36 PM

Have they made this missile to burst it in their home only? 60 Kms...is diameter of Lahore only!

Hilarious comments... Aam aadmi is catching on that any news from TSP is a joke

HATF. WTF kind of name is that? Attention all Poaks. If you are going to PRETEND to be descended from someone, pick a people who have contributed something to humanity over the last 1000 years other than more of thier own kind

I am confused about the army that Brigadier Sharaf served for i know only of one TSPA under the glorious command of Generalissomo Musharraf having lost one of IA's strike corps movement during 2002 one among many midnight anxious call's episodes from the Great Khan or having a SPD with a xerox machine copying the how-to-do manuals given by its Masters . Or entirely plausible that Brigadier by mistake took one of the Chatham House discussion paper back home ( we all know of such innocent mistakes committed every now & then by tspians ) & continuing in same innocence allowed his grandson put i , my, & we forms as per paki-english grammar's rules leading to its glorious publishing in Unkil-aunty's front that has been one of the many watering holes for Her Majesty's most loyal servants .

Looks like A-5 test is really hit the right buttons for the Chinese, now thier Munna is being asked to test everything in thier inventory for H&D. 5 missiles in 2 weeks. I feel they should test about 100 , exhaust thier inventory.

But the key to remember here folks, CHina trusts them so much that longest range missile test was the Shaheen 1A for 673KM. I hope we can start tracking these cruise missiles as well.

Regarding the Raad test- wasnt it suppossed to be air launched, I did not see any pics of it being launched from aircraft, in fact the pics on the web were for a vertically launched missile which hardly indicates an air launched cruise missile.

ISLAMABAD: Renowned Pakistani human rights activist Asma Jehangir on Monday night said that the country’s powerful security establishment was planning to get her killed using one of the many jihadi outfits operating in the country. She spoke out on a couple of primetime talk shows; stating that the establishment particularly a sensitive agency – was upset with her for picking up cudgels for the Baloch people and speaking out against the role of the security establishment in the restive province of Balochistan.Ms. Jehangir went public with her fears after an “information-leak from a responsible and highly credible source.” Alarmed by this leak, leading members of Pakistan’s civil society said: “What makes the reported conspiracy to liquidate Asma Jehangir especially serious is, firstly, the environment of target-killings, in which dissident persons’ dead bodies are being dumped all over, and, secondly, the fact that the finger of accusation has been pointed at the extraordinarily privileged state actors.”In a statement issued through the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, they said this is not a conspiracy against one individual alone but a plot against Pakistan’s future as a democratic state. “We wish to make it clear to all and sundry, especially those who preside over the security apparatus, that they must not under-estimate the consequences of any harm being caused to the life of Asma Jehangir.”

DW: You have made some very serious allegations against the Pakistani security agencies, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Are your sources credible?

Asma Jahangir: I am a very responsible person, and I do not usually make these kinds of allegations. I have been threatened many times in my life but I never went to the police and never made any hue and cry about it. I believe now it is my duty to speak up and say what is needed to be said. My sources are extremely reliable.

You have been very critical of the Pakistan Army's role in politics, and also of the military agencies' human rights abuses inside Pakistan. Do you think this could be the reason they would want to eliminate you?

It is true that I have been critical of them but I have never been unduly critical. I am critical of their policies, which I do not agree with. I think that, in whatever I have said - for instance in my role as a lawyer in the missing people's cases - I have repeated what people said in court. I hoped that there would be a change in the mindset of the establishment, which unfortunately doesn't appear to have happened.

You are a prominent human rights activist and lawyer. Do you think the ISI and other security agencies could kill an internationally renowned person like yourself?

Let me remind you of our history. Prominent people have been killed in Pakistan just like in any other country. The difference between Pakistan and other countries is that in Pakistan nobody ever knows who is responsible for these murders. Akbar Bugti (the Baloch nationalist leader) was also a very prominent person. There was a warning that he would be killed. There was a warning that they would go after him. And when he was actually killed, nobody was held responsible. ……………………

June 5, Stockholm: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said that Pakistan was developing a number of new short-range ballistic missiles which suggests that it may use ‘battlefield nuclear weapons’ resulting in these warheads being deployed on a “launch-ready posture”.

"Pakistan’s development of new short-range ballistic missiles suggests that its military planning has evolved to include contingencies for the use of ‘battlefield nuclear weapons’. This may lead to nuclear warheads being deployed on a more launch-ready posture”.

There is no way Pakistan will match India in terms of conventional weapons. It looks like their strategy is stop any Indian advances by using battlefield tactical nuclear weapons. A dangerous detterent because one never knows where any conflict will escalate once nuclear weapons are used but they don't really have much of a choice, do they ?

Don wrote:There is no way Pakistan will match India in terms of conventional weapons. It looks like their strategy is stop any Indian advances by using battlefield tactical nuclear weapons. A dangerous detterent because one never knows where any conflict will escalate once nuclear weapons are used but they don't really have much of a choice, do they ?

Your Central Military Commission, while facing much superior Soviet conventional and nuclear forces, still decided to adopt a No First Strike policy. They were willing to lose all of their nuclear weapons and many of their northern cities, including Beijing, as long as they could keep the war from going nuclear and protect the center/south. A difficult decision, but better than losing ALL the Chinese cities and having the Central Plains radioactively poisoned. So you see, there is a responsible choice but the Paks prefer Chinese weapons to Chinese wisdom.