Super Bowl too tough to call, but I’ll call it

Earl Thomas has a chip on his shoulder about being short. So does Russell Wilson. Peyton Manning has a chip on his shoulder because the Indianapolis Colts wanted to move on without him. Wes Welker has a chip thanks to the New England Patriots passing on his free agency.

How about Richard Sherman? He let us know after the NFC Championship game that he was playing with a big chip on his shoulder. Maybe I should forget about strategy and tactics in favor of finding out where all the grudges lie. But I can’t.

The best way to beat Manning is to make his team run the ball instead of passing, and it can be done. Simply play a 2-deep coverage and Peyton will audible to run plays over and over. Not until the game is on the line will he forgo the run and air it out.

However, when I checked out the Seattle Seahawks statistics sheet, it showed that Thomas and fellow safety Kam Chancellor combined for more than 200 tackles over the season. Those numbers clearly signify that Seattle does not play Cover 2. Therefore, we can expect one safety in the middle of the field almost all the time and Denver receivers battling down the field all day for footballs vs. tough pass defenders.

The Seahawks most surely believe their defensive scheme can contain whatever running game Denver might conjure up. Stop what little run the Broncos will attempt and force them into throwing more than their average of 43 passes per game. Unsettling weather will be a valuable accomplice for the Hawks in their gameplan.

Denver has another view of the game. Stop Marshawn Lynch and make Russell Wilson beat you with his passing. San Francisco had the perfect plan in the NFC title game. With only a five- or six-man rush, they completely dominated the Seattle pass protection, sacked Wilson, and almost stole the game.

Russell did escape once for a big play, but the 49ers kept him in the pocket and proved they could negate him. For instance, Manning gets sacked once every 35 passes (about once a game), while Wilson gets sacked once every 10 passes or more than three times as often.

Are there any real advantages? Seattle’s secondary is the best in the NFL because they can cover anybody. Their style gets plenty of complaints from other teams when receivers get stripped down to their undershorts playing against them. How the officials call pass interference may be the most influential action of the contest.

Yes, Wes Welker is short (and quick) but, the Broncos boast three large targets who fly downfield and catch passes. Demaryius Thomas (6-foot-4), Julius Thomas (6-4) and Eric Decker (6-3) are the envy of every quarterback in football.

Peyton Manning is the sympathetic favorite to win this game after overcoming big odds with his four neck surgeries. He also has that good guy look that is so appealing to fans. Pete Carroll is the energetic, fun-loving coach with the taint of his days at USC and their NCAA violations. Could this be good vs. evil or Batman vs. The Joker in Gotham City?

I have been trying all week to find a way for the Broncos to win the game, and I must admit it has been difficult. I did say that defense wins championships, right?

Well, here is the catch. Denver can play some defense, too. By playing as many as eight and maybe nine people near the line of scrimmage, the Broncos can reduce Seattle’s run game and force them to throw more than they want.

By defensive design (single safety) the Seahawks will allow Denver to both run and pass at their established ratio. All of this puts the balance of strength in the Broncos favor.

A wet and soggy day favors Seattle ... just like home. Clear and dry skies should put a smile on Manning’s face.

Prediction: Denver 23, Seattle 17.

John Mackovic is a La Quinta resident and former NFL and college coach. He is writing columns for The Desert Sun throughout the football season.