It is the seat the spin doctors forgot. Eight days to polling day, and the voters in Margaret Thatcher's old home-ground at Finchley and Golders Green are still waiting for a visit by a Cabinet minister or opposition heavyweight.

Yet Labour is defending one of its most marginal seats here, a gain it made in Tony Blair's 1997 landslide and held onto in 2005 by just 138 votes.

Has Labour finally written off its candidate Alison Moore? The bookmakers have. Here, they are quoting 1-20 on a victory by her Tory rival Mike Freer.

Private polling puts Mr Freer at least 12 points ahead of Ms Moore. While David Cameron clearly sees this symbolic win as safe in the hands of Mr Freer, 49, an engaging former banker and leader of Barnet council, defeatism has crept into Labour ranks. "I hope it's a close race, if you know what I mean," Ms Moore admitted after a hustings.

The research scientist, 51, who masterminded Rudi Vis's election victory in 2005 and headed the council's Labour group, did not deny rumours that some of her party's most active campaigners have already been diverted from Finchley by central office to more winnable London seats.

You would be hard-pressed to guess that this affluent north London suburb was Labour's number-six target. Minor boundary changes since 2005 have tipped it over into a notional Tory seat with a 274 majority. Parts of Golders Green, Hampstead Garden Suburb and Finchley Church End were added —areas where one former councillor said "you could tie a blue ribbon round a cabbage and it would win".

Even lifelong Labour voters are struggling not to be enticed by Freer. One barrister said: "I'll vote for Alison Moore, but she doesn't shine. As a constituent I won't be at all unhappy if Mike Freer wins. He'll make a great MP."

Solicitor Justin Stock, 38, said: "Concerns about how we run the country are going to influence people here."

Company director David Joseph, 63, of East Finchley, said: "People understand that the big issue is whether we cut spending now or later. Everyone realises the local stuff is flimflam."

The large, influential Jewish community also cares deeply how their MP speaks of issues such as the recent Israel offensive in Gaza. At a hustings at the London Jewish Cultural Centre two weeks ago it was only Mr Freer who acknowledged the extent of Jewish anger at criticism of Israel. What was not mentioned in the meeting was that Freer presided over Barnet council's loss of £27.4 million in collapsed Icelandic banks. Private Eye made him Banker of the Year. His subsequent "easyCouncil" model — in which residents receive a bare minimum of services in return for lower taxes and then pay for any extras — propelled him on to front pages of the national press.

Ms Moore acknowledges her rival may rise up the ranks, but fears it may be at the expense of constituents. She said: "He sees himself as ministerial material. I have my doubts about how committed he is to being a local MP."

The rivals are wooing constituents at "Obama-style" meetings in homes to discuss concerns over tea. "We've been left to our own devices; Central Office are concentrating on seats that need more support," said Mr Freer. Ms Moore added: "It's a tough contest but the bookies aren't talking to as many people on the doorstep as I am."