Delivering your morning paper …

NASHVILLE, Tenn. _ Until the Johan Santana logjam breaks, the trade waters could be stagnant for the rest of the Winter Meetings.

The teams with high profile trade options _ BaltimoreÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Erik Bedard and OaklandÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Dan Haren _ are waiting to see what happens with Santana.

“People are waiting to see where the chips will fall,Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ said Mets general manager Omar Minaya.

Even should Santana be traded today or tomorrow, there would still be a 72-hour window in which to sign him and the subsequent physical taking process, which would put things on hold until next week.

That doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t mean the Mets are sitting for the Santana press conference before talking, evidenced by Minaya speaking yesterday with Baltimore and Oakland.

“We did make some progress,Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ Minaya said. “Of course, progress can be just having dialog.Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ã¢â‚¬â„¢

Baltimore wants to explore the Bedard market, but the MetsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ reported offer of outfielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Phil Humber and Aaron Heilman isnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t enough to get it done.

And, with MinayaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s theory, the Orioles would be foolish to jump at it when they donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t know what the loser of the Santana Sweepstakes is willing to offer.

The Mets were never in it for Santana, instead thinking about Bedard and OaklandÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s duo of Haren and Joe Blanton.

The Mets negotiated with Athletics general manager Billy Beane last season for Haren, Blanton and Rich Harden, but Minaya wouldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t part with various packages that included Mike Pelfrey, Humber, Heilman and Lastings Milledge.

Milledge is gone, but the other three remain, who, along with pitcher Kevin Mulvey and outfielder Fernando Martinez, are on the radar of teams talking with the Mets.

However, the MetsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ prospects arenÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t on a par with that of the Yankees, should they opt to trade with Oakland for Haren instead of division opponent Baltimore.

The division angle might be what works in the MetsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ favor should they sweeten the Bedard pot.

Even so, Minaya would rather write a check.

“I would rather get a free agent,Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ Minaya said. “But, if thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s not to be, you have to ask the question: Do I want to pay that much?Ã¢â‚¬â„¢Ã¢â‚¬â„¢

Reports from the West Coast have the Mets more interested in Blanton that Haren because he might cost fewer prospects, but Minaya wouldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t confirm.

The Mets are also speaking with the representatives for Livan Hernandez, who won 11 games and threw 200 innings last season for Arizona and would essentially amount as a wash to losing Tom Glavine.

John Delcos enters his third season covering the Mets for The Journal News after eight seasons on the Yankees beat. Prior to coming to New York, John covered the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Browns and Cleveland Indians.

In an offseason when the Mets are learning the hard way that no one finds their top prospects all that attractive, this was the most piercing insult. When they asked the Marlins about Dontrelle Willis at the winter meetings earlier this week, they were told not to bother because he wasn’t available.

The exorbitant cost of pitching has made drafting and developing players perhaps more important than ever, either to build with or use as trade bait.

And since there is no sizzle surrounding Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber, pitchers that teams were drooling over a couple of years ago, the Mets seem destined for a quiet winter.

Be prepared for the Mets to leave quietly from these meetings and then announce minor free agent pitcher signings of what is left after the Santana dust has cleared and the chain reaction from that concerning the arms in Oakland and Bedard in Baltimore has occurred. The shame of it will be that they will over pay as everyone knows that they do not have the trade pieces to get it done. I only hope that they are prudent with the length of the contracts, even over the amounts, because those could handcuff the team further from growth in the next two to three years. The only other option is to circle the wagons and stand firm as is, knowing that they would likely be a 500 team at best and hope that some of their rookies catch lightning in a bottle. They may even want to creative and let Heilman start and put O. Hernandez in the bullpen if one of the kid starters work out. It would be a novel idea for them to let a malcontent with his current position (Heilman) actually let him do want he feels he should be doing. If he fails at it he can be put back to relief knowing he had the opportunity.

As a fan I really like to see young prospects develop. If the Mets don’t get another starting pitcher it will be a chance for Pelfrey and/or Humber to break into the major leagues. Pelfrey seemed to be pitching a lot more aggresively when he came back up from the minors the second time. To me it really seemed like there was a marked difference in his demeanor on the mound. The results weren’t that much better but they were definitely better and he can build on that this year. Humber also showed promise. He had 4.29 ERA at AAA which is not exactly great but he was coming off of Tommy John surgery and often there is great improvement the 2nd year back from Tommy John surgery.

Livan Hernandez worries me a bit. He isn’t that old. He’ll be 33 this season. However he seems to be losing it. Last season his ERA was 4.93 which is decent FOR A FIFTH STARTER, but his WHIP was an awful 1.595, the worst of his career. It suggests that he may have been somewhat lucky that his ERA was only 4.93. On the website thehardballtimes.com they have a STAT called FIP-ERA. The idea is to compare a pitchers actual ERA with what you would expect his ERA to be based on his other numbers. A negative number means that his ERA ‘should have’ been better and so he may have been unlucky and/or played in front of a poor defense. A positive number means that his ERA was lower or better than you would expect based on his other numbers and he may have been lucky and/or recieved much better than average defense behind him. Livan Hernandez has the 2nd highest FIP-ERA in the NL last year (Matt Chico was 1st). This worries me a great deal. I fear Livan Hernandez will be a significant downgrade from Tom Glavine.