Monday, April 20, 2015

GrApocalypse now

...a ghastly set of circumstances is coming together to form an inevitable
reality – that of Greece being ejected from the euro zone (a forced
“Grexit”), which wouldn't be caused by a conscious decisions, but would
be the result of a huge accident (“Graccident").

Because;

Dogma, morality and blind spots are playing a much greater role, obscuring economic and financial realities.

Tell us something we didn't know, Mohamed.

Chances are...awfully bad;

Putting all this together leads me to postulate today a 45/10/45
probability distribution: There is a 45 percent chance that a last
minute messy compromise allows the muddling-through to continue; a 10
percent chance that a meaningful policy breakthrough will be achieved,
and a 45 percent chance that the outcome is a Graccident in which both
the Greek government and its European partners lose control of the
situation. Under this third scenario, a series of Greek payment
defaults, bank runs and the imposition of capital controls would force
Greece out of the single currency.