AccuScore is the premier sports simulation engine. AccuScore simulated the Champions League final 10,000 times based on projected lineups using historical individual and team statistics to arrive at Champions League predictions . For more sports predictions, visit AccuScore.com

With the Champions League final taking place in Bayern Munich’s home stadium, the AccuScore computer projects Bayern Munich to hold a decisive 70% probability of winning Europe’s premier club competition. Chelsea is on the other side of that percentage at 30% to win the final. The primary reason for the discrepancy is the location of the match: Munich.

Bayern, the favourites

Bayern Munich is playing the Champions League final in its home stadium, the Allianz Arena. Domestically, Bayern Munich won 14 of its 17 Bundesliga matches at the Allianz this season. In Europe, the Bavarians out-scored visitors 21-4 with a perfect 7 wins in 7 games on Champions League match days in Munich. Playing at home is a big advantage for Bayern and striker Mario Gomez, in particular.

He tallied 11 of his 12 European goals at home this season, and he scored in every Champions League match he started in Munich during the 2011-12 campaign. Gomez was calculated as the most likely scorer in the final with a 55% chance of scoring once and 18% chance of netting a brace. Bayern plays better at home, like most teams, but Mario Gomez seems to always score on European nights in Munich. He’s a big part of why the computer is giving Bayern a 70% chance of winning.

Chelsea, the underdogs

On the flip side, the computer calculates Chelsea to have a 30% chance of winning. The Blues, however, are familiar with being labeled heavy underdogs, and that role didn’t have much of an impact in the semi-finals. Earning a 2-2 draw at the Camp Nou and scoring both goals with only 10 men against a full-strength Barcelona proved that point. Chelsea, however, has the immensely difficult task of winning in Munich, and the Blues have not been especially clinical away from Stamford Bridge this term.

The Blues’ 2011-12 away record was less than exemplary. In the domestic league, Chelsea only had 6 wins in 19 tries away from Stamford Bridge. The Blues were substantially worse in the Champions League. The Londoners only had 1 win in 6 European away matches this season. However, the 2-2 result in the Champions League semi-final in Barcelona reminded all doubters that this team is capable of beating the odds.

After the semi-finals, the parallels between Chelsea and Bayern Munich were hard to ignore. Both these teams conquered Spanish giants in the semi-finals. Both fell behind in the 2nd leg of the semi-finals but roared back to claim a berth in the final. Both possessed shot stoppers that made astonishing saves and won matches. Both teams have the opportunity of earning the label of “best team in Europe,” but neither team can legitimately lay claims to being the best team in its own country.

Considering their respective semi-final performances, both sides deserve to be in the Champions League final, but only one of these sides can win. Looking at the numbers, the computer says Bayern will win in Munich, but Chelsea won’t mind being the underdog. After all, the Blues certainly weren’t favorites to make the final.