Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for Indonesia. Between February 1998 and mid-2001 the series showed considerable fluctuation. From mid-2001 the series, while still recording monthly fluctuations, remained relatively stable. The high point in the series was December 1998 (8,600 movements) and the low point was in October 1999 (6,100 movements). Currently, the number of movements in February 2008 (7,700 movements) is 12% higher than in February 2007 and 3% higher than in February 1998.

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending February 2008, two large increases were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from Indonesia for May 1998 and May 1999. The reasons for these increases are unclear. Ramadan, which is known to be associated with increased movement of short-term visitor arrivals from Indonesia, was in December in both years. Events that coincided with these increases included the Asian Financial Crisis (mid-1997 to late 1998 and normally associated with a downturn in arrivals), political unrest in Indonesia and the vote for independence in East Timor (August 1999).

INDONESIA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

In original terms, in the year ended February 2008 short-term visitor arrivals from Indonesia represented 1.6% (90,700 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. This proportion was higher than in the previous 12 months ended February 2007 (1.5%, or 83,000 movements) and around 50% lower than in the 12 months ended February 1998 (3.3%, or 140,600 movements).

In the year ended February 2008, the highest proportion of short-term visitor arrivals from Indonesia stated holiday (39%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (17%) and business and education (12% each). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (21%), business (12%) and education (5%). The median age of short-term visitors from Indonesia was 40 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 11 days (10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).

The states of New South Wales (33%), Victoria (26%), Western Australia (21%) and Queensland (13%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from Indonesia in the year ended February 2008. The main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (27%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (10%).

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for Indonesia. During the ten year period ending February 2008, the trend estimate series fluctuated until October 2002 when the first of four breaks in the series was recorded. The breaks from October 2002 and October 2005 were due to sudden declines in travel of Australian residents to Indonesia following the Bali bombings. The breaks from December 2003 and December 2006 were inserted due to movements returning to, or closer to, levels experienced prior to the 2002 and 2005 Bali bombings.

With these breaks in the trend series in mind, the high point in the series, over the ten year period ending February 2008, was in November 1998 (32,100 movements) and the low point was in January 2003 (12,400 movements). Currently, the number of movements in February 2008 (32,100 movements) is 44% higher than in February 2007 and 16% higher than in February 1998. The number of short-term resident departures to Indonesia in February 2008 was the second highest trend figure recorded over the ten year period and is a strong indication that Australian residents are again seeing Indonesia (and most likely Bali) as a desirable holiday destination.

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending February 2008, two large variations were evident for short-term resident departures of Australian residents to Indonesia for November 1999 and April 2000. While the reasons for these variations are unclear, it is known that they coincided with a period of political uncertainty in Indonesia and East Timor.

INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures

In original terms, in the year ended February 2008 short-term resident departures to Indonesia represented 5.3% (297,300 movements) of all short-term resident departures from Australia. This was higher than the proportion for the previous 12 months ended February 2007 (4.1%, or 204,900 movements) and around 50% lower than for the 12 months ended February 1998 (10.7%, or 316,100 movements).

In the year ended February 2008, nearly three quarters (74%) of all short-term resident departures to Indonesia stated holiday as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (10%) and business (9%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (14%). The median age of short-term resident departures to Indonesia was 39 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 12 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).

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