ALTERNATIVE NEWS

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Japan’s Three Options in the East China Sea

By Robert Dujarric:What options does China have? The Naval Diplomat's James Holmes has one idea here. Tensions between Japan and China over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands
are continuing, as indicated by continued obstacles to Japanese
businesses in China, a drastic decline in tourism, and Chinese patrols
near the islands. This is both a Sino-Japanese issue and a part of a
broader confrontation between China on one side and the United States
and its allies on the other. Given Japan’s reliance on the U.S. security umbrella, Tokyo’s moves
are to some extent constrained by American actions. Nevertheless,
Japan’s size and resources mean Tokyo retains considerable autonomy in
handling its relationship with Beijing.At this point, Tokyo has three options:DO NOTHING. Regardless of the legitimacy of
conflicting claims over the islands, the responsibility for the
escalation lies mostly with China. The nationalization of three
islets, previously owned by a Japanese citizen, did not alter the status
quo. Moreover, given (former) Governor Ishihara’s antics about Tokyo
purchasing then, it was imperative that the central government preempt
him. On the other hand, the party-sponsored – or at least tolerated –
violence against Japanese property and individuals in China was on a
different scale. Additionally, Chinese moves against Japanese
businesses in China amount to economic sanctions.Nevertheless, doing nothing is an option for Japan. Chinese actions
so far are not a grave threat. Japan has an overriding interest in
not making the situation worse, and in making sure that if it does it
will be crystal clear that Beijing is at fault. A Japanese reaction
could backfire, whereas waiting to see how things evolve over the next
months, or even years, avoids this risk.Additionally, the Noda cabinet may soon be history, possibly replaced
by an administration led by a failed ex-premier (Shinzo Abe) who deemed
it a good idea to pray at Yasukuni Shrine earlier this month. Taking a
proactive course on China policy requires stable and high-quality
leadership, something which is lacking in Tokyo.SEEK A COMPROMISE: Giving up control of the
islands is not in the cards. However, Japan could seek to accept some
Chinese demands. This could include looking at various forms of
joint development, revising fishing zones, etc. The advantage of such a strategy is that it would test the
proposition that the Communist Party is not interested in drastically
altering the status quo but had to react when the “nationalization” of
the three islands made it lose face. If this hypothesis is true, a
limited amount of concessions could settle the issue. Given the
importance for all concerned to defuse the situation, the cost-benefit
ratio of such a strategy would be positive. If it turned out that no amount of Japanese concessions bought peace,
then we would all know that Chinese Communist Party's intent.
However, given the domestic politics in Tokyo, implementation of such a
policy would be tricky in the absence of a charismatic prime minister
trusted by a large majority of the electorate.GO ON THE OFFENSIVE: In both 2010 and 2012,
Beijing crossed the line of accepted norms. It unleashed economic
warfare against Japan (in 2010 with the rare earths and delays in
customs, in 2012 through physical attacks on Japanese assets in China,
state-sponsored cancellations of travel, slowdowns in import processing,
etc.). So there is an argument for demonstrating that there is a price
to pay.A strategic offensive would have two prongs. The diplomatic part
would be Japanese support for a territorial status quo to end once and
for all territorial disputes. Japan would acknowledge the full
sovereignty of South Korea over Takeshima (Dokto) and of Russia over the
Northern Territories (the southern Kuriles). China would then be seen
as the only troublemaker, since it would be the only remaining regional
actor with territorial claims (Taiwan would too, but its role in the
Senkaku crisis is obviously less critical) and improve relations with
Seoul (and perhaps Moscow).The economic offensive could have several pillars. Japanese customs
would slow down the processing of Chinese imports, focusing on those
which can easily be sourced from other locations. Chinese airlines and
tour operators that bring tourists from Japan to China could see their
operations subjected to unfortunately lengthy tax audits, inspections,
and other bureaucratic hurdles. In some cases, Japan is the only source of high-tech components for
China-based exporters. In selected cases, these exports could be slowed
down, focusing on those that are vital for Chinese state-owned
corporations and businesses owned by senior party officials and their
families. Such an ambitious strategy could signal Beijing that there are costs
to aggressive behavior. In particular, it would have the advantage of
preventing future miscalculations on China’s part by deterring the
Communist Party from further escalation with Japan. If one believes
that China is on a road that will lead to war with the U.S. and its
allies, making a stand now could ensure peace in the future by forcing
Beijing to see how costly its objectives are and demonstrating Japanese
resolve backed by the U.S. All of these three options have advantages and disadvantages. The
first one differs from the other two in terms of the requirements for
implementation. It does not require particularly talented leadership,
whereas the others demand first-rate actors in Japan's cabinet. The
last one, and to some extent the "compromise” would also entail very
close cooperation with the United States, but the “do nothing” option
could be accomplished through normal working level channels with
Washington.Robert Dujarric is Director, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, Temple University Japan.Sourcebanzai7

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