Danger, Captain Kirk

Following his game-winning hit to sweep the Miami Marlins on April 26 to cap a three-hit day, Nieuwenhuis had a season line of .333/.403/.517 in 67 plate appearances. He’d walked just five times and struck out 19 times, meaning that in nearly 30 percent of his appearances, he’d fanned, while his batting eye wasn’t translating into many walks.

In 73 plate appearances since, Nieuwenhuis has a line of .254/.333/.302. The power has completely disappeared, while he’s walked eight times and struck out 22 times. The strikeout rate is up over 30 percent now, the walk rate about the same. And the problem is that such control of the strike zone usually goes with lines closer to his second set of plate appearances than his first.

I point this out, not because Nieuwenhuis is a flash in the pan who should be quickly forgotten, but for a different reason. We conveniently forgot that when the Mets called him up, he’d played less than half a season last year at Triple-A, and that his entire body of work at even Triple-A is just 83 games. The man was rushed. Out of necessity, no doubt, but rushed just the same.

So when Jason Bay comes back, the Mets are supposed to have a roster crunch. But that assumes that Nieuwenhuis is a Met to stay, no matter what.

Might I suggest, as unpalatable as it is for anyone who has watched Bay as a Met, that as long as Jason Bay is going to get more chances to justify his enormous contract-and make no mistake, he almost certainly will-that Nieuwenhuis ought to go back to Triple-A to resume learning how to control the strike zone?

This swinging-and-missing problem isn’t new. His career strikeout rate at Triple-A is just under 28 percent, which is awfully high. He has talent, but not enough power to really justify a full-time career if he can’t get that under control.

So if Jason Bay is going to be given another shot anyway, it is probably for the best to see Nieuwenhuis sent back to Buffalo, rather than spot Bay, Torres and Duda from the New York bench. Hopefully, the move is a temporary one.

Howard Megdal is the Lead Writer for the LoHud Mets Blog and Writer At Large for Capital New York. He covers baseball, basketball, and soccer for these and numerous other publications. His new book, "Wilpon's Folly," is available as an e-book at Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble. Follow the LoHud Mets Blog on Twitter @lohudmets. Follow Howard on Twitter @HowardMegdal.

3 Comments

Jesse

Do you have his lefty/righty splits broken down over the post-April 26 time period? His general platoon splits are pretty extreme and I was just wondering whether any of the numbers are due to facing more left-handed pitching.

Jesse, that is a terrific question- is he just collapsing against lefties, in other words… I don’t know. What we do know is that even in the total numbers he’s put up so far, he really hasn’t hit lefties- just .565 OPS against them, .855 against righties. Whether that is recent collapse or overall problem, it is something that would hold him back at the MLB level.

I’m figuring, that unless Ike is able to work out of his season long funk, he’ll be the candidate for AAA when Bay returns. Duda will shift to 1B, and Kirk to RF. Ike looks awful. He can’t swing, he has no timing, his body is all over the place, and any pitch low and outside is an automatic strike. I don’t know what Ike’s problem is, but he was figured as an important bat in the Mets line-up. We could speculate as to the cause of his problem, but I don’t believe that more futile ABs at the ML level is the solution.

Terry has slowly dropped Ike to the 7 hole to take some pressure off him (and to give some meaningful back-up to Wright) without any meaningful change. We are about 1/4 way into the season. This more than a slump. We could speculate as to the cause of Ike’s problem like he has a hidden injury, the injury change his body and weight distribution to require him to relearn the strike zone, or you name it. Whatever he is potentially one of the Mets most valuable properties. Dropping him to AAA to find his way would be good for everyone—especially Ike. He’s doing no one any good hitting under the Mendoza line.