A comment made by atropos on the live coverage of the Norwich North by election reads “I think the real battle is for second place. If Labour come anywhere near third place, Labour are doomed for 3 terms.”

The reporter taking on the election at Norwich for the BBC has spoken dismissively of there being a leadership challenge as a consequence of today, but certainly if Labour come third, its curtains.

In today’s by-elections, the 45.88% turnout (heads up from Norfolkblogger) may be good for the Tories, as politicalbetting has noted, “The general theory of low turnouts is that the campaigns which benefit most are those that are best organised” and on the basis of Tory candidate Chloe Smith’s highly organised operation – thanks to no less than 6 visits by Cameron, along with entourage Hague and Osborne – there is no reason to doubt this judgement.

At this time (10.08am) Sky News has word that Labour have conceded defeat and its a fight for second-place between them and the Lib-Dems.

So this is ripe time for a general plan of action – where now for Labour?

I had hoped that when Alan Johnson was sniffing around for the PM job that the tables would turn, but they didn’t, and I wrote about a leftwards shift before its too late, and it didn’t happen – and now the party is spoken of as having doomed.

Another thorn in the side. I said I didn’t want to see a Labour leftwing shift after an (general) election defeat in 2010, because this would be too late. I didn’t realise how right I would be. Strategically, a leftwing shift might not be popular among the Labour benches because the Tories themselves are calling dibs on this – one Tory even saying that James Purnell’s Open Left turn should point him in the direction of conservatism. It beggars belief, but the Tories might succeed in appearing more leftwing than Labour, even though this is clearly claptrap (Jesse Norman says that the Tories will champion leftwing/working-class traditions (often thoroughly small-c conservative) of self-help).

So one strategy is to undo that turn of academic progressive conservatism at an academic level (which is why, in spite of Purnell’s non-leftist reputation, I support the Open Left forum and am excited by the prospect of Cruddas and other encouraging voices from the left), and to also show Tories to be the party, not of communitarianism, but of big business, and that Red Toryism, or any other “political cross-dressing” is a front.

Whether Britain acts against ISIL in Syria isn't about provoking them or if they pose a threat, but whether our actions will be effective and justified. Whatever we decide, we will get attacked by ISIS; it's their aim and in their interests. The bigger question is whether we should join our international allies against a terror group that has alrea […]

When Islamic State came to notoriety last year, many commentators including myself made assumptions about its plans. I wrote for Al-Jazeera that it “poses a far greater threat to Muslims than it does to the west” - and this has remained true. I also said its impact on community relations in Europe and the US “could be devastating” - an obvious prediction tha […]

As is common these days, I get abused on Twitter by some lefties outraged that I’ve not fallen in line with popular opinion on the left. In my latest column for LabourList I show why the assumption that Jeremy Corbyn will appeal to non-voters or UKIPers with his ‘clear principles’ or economic populism seem wildly optimistic. Britons who don't vote or op […]

A few weeks before the General Election in May, I found that the National Council of Hindu Temples – a registered charity – posted a message calling on British Hindus to vote Conservative. It was clearly in violation of the Charity Commission rules, which state that charities cannot be politically aligned, and I complained. The […]

"The revolution doesn't start a thousand miles away, it starts with you." It could be a statement put out by ISIS, the group that has encouraged its sympathisers all over the world to take action in defense of the Caliphate. But actually that's the strapline on the front page of National Action, a neo-Nazi group in the UK that is committe […]

By Keith Simpson MP Over the past few weeks as the EU (Withdrawal) Bill grinds its way slowly through the Chamber of the House of Commons it has been noticeable that many MPs take refuge in the library to read and to sleep. This litany will continue for many, many months. Christmas is a time to catch up on reading and to spot purchases for family and friends […]

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Following his ill-judged retweets of three Britain First tweets, Donald Trump is now turning his ire onto Theresa May. He tweeted yesterday: “@Theresa_May don’t focus on me, focus on the destructive radical Islamic terrorism that is taking place within the United Kingdom. We are doing just fine!”. Further evidence if we needed it of the President’s warped na […]

The Tory rebel Remainers celebrated defeating the government and provoked fury among colleagues by downing glasses of white wine in the Pugin Room following the vote. Rebel ringleaders Anna Soubry, Antoinette Sandbach, Heidi Allen and Bob Neill got the party started, jubilantly scrolling through Twitter on their phones before they were joined by Nicky Morgan […]

The government has been defeated on what remainers refer to as a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal – but what is really a naked attempt to subvert the referendum result. MPs voted 309 to 305 for Dominic Grieve’s amendment. The government lost by four votes. Stay tuned for the Tory rebels… UPDATE: 12 rebels confirmed as Morgan, […] The post Remainers […]