09 February 2008

Looks like Obama swept all three states today, as did Huckabee. My experience in the WA caucus was pretty amazing. In 2004, the caucus was large and busy; this year there were about four times as many people there. We were in a local union hall, and the turnout could have filled the room several times over. There was no parking within a mile or so. They wound up moving several precincts off-site somewhere; I'm not sure where. Rumor is there were over 200,000 participants. The Obama fervor was remarkable; in our precinct we could barely find anyone to deliver a pro-Hillary speech, and in the end, our precinct went for Obama 6-1; several friends of mine came back from their caucuses with similar experiences, and similar margins of victory for Obama. One friend, in Seattle proper, had a closer ratio, only 3-2 for Obama. The SLOG, NW Progressives and Horse's Ass report similar experiences. Looks like the final will still be pretty resounding with a 2-1 ratio for Obama. Not just a win, but a blow-out, which is nice; Obama was expected to win, but to win by such a decisive amount can build some serious momentum.

As for myself, I got elected as a county delegate, and one resolution I hope to advance will be to drop that idiotic frigging caucus system and go to a primary. I may be pleased because my guy won today, but my wife was at a birthday party with the kids and didn't get to vote; several of my partners were similarly disenfranchised, as they had to work. It's a profoundly undemocratic way to pick a nominee.

On the other side of the fence, with Huckster beating Walnuts in all three states, though only one in a blowout. Maybe conservatives are signaling that they are not on board with the McCain coronation? I doubt it can be detailed at this point, but "A" for effort, guys!

I see your point about the self-selection of the electorate with a caucus system, but I also imagine that there must be a feeling of more complete participation and thought and care for the people who are able to come out for the whole event. Do you think that brings anything worthwhile to the process?

I'm a little more cautious at interpreting the Huckabee results as any change in support, as everything yesterday was a caucus, and the rising-popularity candidates tend to have more vocal supporters, which matters much more in a caucus than in a primary. Caucuses tend to favor candidates with an excited fan base and the more personable candidates. My guess is that the only thing that will stop McCain now is a serious health issue that reminds people in a big way that he is ancient and brings into question his fitness for office.

My prediction is that Hillary! will stay close enough to allow her to impose her will on the superdelegates to steal the nomination from Obama. This will infuriate a large segment of the "one-issue" Obama voters enough to either stay home or go with McCain. No way in hell would Obama accept a VP slot, which is the only way Hillary could possibly beat McCain. He'll bide his time until 2012, when he'll probably win.

Huckabee is just a distraction. The Republicans will get in line behind McCain, especially if it's Hillary! they're voting against.

I totally agree about primaries vs. caucuses. In my experience, caucuses just hand over an excessive amount of influence to those who either totally love the political process, have an inflated sense of civic duty, or are weirdos with nothing better to do.

Scalpel is right. Just a couple of weeks ago, Shadowfax was gloating about the alleged chaos in the Republican Party. Now it looks like the Dems are going to have a full-scale civil war. Ah … the schadenfreude is sweet.

The lack of party loyalty among Democrats is very frustrating. It is the same thing with the liberal media. The Democrats in Congress have been attacked since the day they took office for basically failing to cast a magic spell to make the Bush administration go away.

Now, the brutal attacks on science, civil liberties, the environment, America's reputation abroad, women, blacks, separation of powers, separation of church and state, etc. That may be enough to keep the bad guys from stealing this one. Who knows.

As a former politics blogger who used to care, I must say I'm unimpressed with every single candidate. These are the most boring, uninspiring crop of people at the least and frightening at the worst.

To make it easy on myself, I've decided to vote against anyone JimII wants to vote for.

As my ex-boyfriend advised me, "The best thing you can do, K, is stop caring about politics and focus on making as much money as possible so that you have some left when whoever is elected takes it away."

Shadowfax

About me: I am an ER physician and administrator living in the Pacific Northwest. I live with my wife and four kids. Various other interests include Shorin-ryu karate, general aviation, Irish music, Apple computers, and progressive politics. My kids do their best to ensure that I have little time to pursue these hobbies.

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