Easter Forecast for Kentucky

Submitted by Shawn Crowe on Wed, 04/04/2012 - 12:09pm

It appears that we are going to be lucky in Kentucky this weekend. A period of dry and warm weather is going to slide through the Commonwealth over the course of the Easter holiday. Let’s break it down in detail.

Weather Underground

This run of the GFS computer model shows the freezing line dipping all the way into southern Kentucky on the morning of Good Friday. Cover up those sensitive plants!

The morning of Good Friday will bring northerly winds behind a pesky weather system that is currently affecting our weather daily. This system looks to finally push off to the east Friday and leave cooler air in its wake. In fact, the latest run of the GFS model indicates that temperatures early Friday morning may dip to the freezing level. Gardeners and persons with sensitive vegetation need to watch the weather this weekend closely as frosty morning lows look likely. Here’s a chart valid at 8 a.m. Friday morning.

Temperatures by Friday afternoon should recover into the upper 50s or near 60. As high pressure works into Kentucky on Saturday, skies should remain sunny and temperatures should rebound into the middle 60s after another frosty start.

On Easter morning, the high pressure will have drifted east into the Appalachian region. The next weather system will start to move out of the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley. I believe that with high pressure to our east, and the front not quite into Kentucky from the west just yet, sunrise services at local churches should be in great shape. In fact, the sunrise should be visible in the eastern sky and temperatures will likely be in the mid-40s at 7:00 AM. Easter services look to have a nice weather forecast to look forward to.

As the front pushes through Kentucky during the day Sunday, typically we would see showers and storms break out along the front. But the last few runs of the computer models are indicating that there will not be enough moisture in the air to work with. It appears that this frontal passage may be mostly a dry one. I’d say that a 10 percent chance of a rain shower is a fair forecast on Sunday. Clouds may thicken up, and winds will shift around to the north, but rainfall should be spotty at best on Sunday. Temperatures should rise into the 60s during the afternoon. All in all, not a bad forecast. Here’s how the latest run of the GFS model sees things at 2 p.m. on Sunday.

So in summary, dry weather should prevail Friday through Sunday morning, with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be cold in the mornings, and seasonable in the afternoons. Looking down the road it appears that a trough will move into the eastern half of the nation next week. This may drop our temperatures significantly, and many days next week could see highs only in the 50s. Enjoy this weekend!