4Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030”Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent”Source:

10Objectives of EU FLA To anticipate new societal challengesTo advise on the main changes that the World and Europe will have to face in the next decadesTo inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughtsTo evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including the potential technological and social breakthroughsTo shape a more sustainable future10

11Controversies on EU FLABaseline / Reference scenario?Objectivity and bias among experts?Clarity and opacity of models?Conventional thinking and beyond it?…11

12SSH Expert Groups The World in 2025 – report published in 2009Three Expert Groups led by DG Research and Innovation (Social Sciences and Humanities) in close cooperation with BEPA:The World in 2025 – report published in 2009EuroMed-2030 – report published 2010Global Europe 2050 – report tbp in 2011 and final conference on 28 November 201112

16EU population in 2060 (000 people)The number of people over 65 will double in 50 years (from 85 million in 2008 to 151 million in 2060)The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost tripleThe share of health expenditures in the EU is expected to increase from 8% of GDP today to 13% in 2060Source: DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)