“Crime goes up, it goes down,” the police commissioner said about new numbers showing that while murders are down, the number of shootings and shooting victims are up. So far, the number of shooting victims has risen 13.2 percent over last year.

Bratton is right that numbers go up and numbers go down. But crime doesn’t go down without a reason.

We recall, for example, back in 2012, when shootings also went up. That led to an NYPD initiative called Operation Crew Cut, aimed at street gangs whom the cops saw as driving much of the shooting.

By year’s end, both the murders and shootings had fallen to record lows.

We agree it’s way too early to conclude from these latest numbers that the restrictions on the NYPD pushed by the mayor, imposed by a judge and endorsed by his police commissioner have been a failure.

Then again, if it’s too early to declare failure, it surely was too early for Mayor de Blasio to declare victory as he did in March, when he crowed that low crime figures for his first two months in office had vindicated him against the “naysayers.”

Since the mayor made his boast, shootings and the number of shooting victims have gone up more than 30 percent.

So yes, numbers fluctuate. Here’s hoping new figures lead the mayor and his police commissioner to take steps to ensure an upward tick doesn’t become a pattern.