Patriots Beat: Can team win without Asante Samuel?

Thursday

Jul 26, 2007 at 12:01 AMJul 26, 2007 at 11:31 AM

Somewhere along the line, over the last five months, and through the shrouded negotiations between this team and its star cornerback, the Kool-Aid drinking public made a decision. And it was a little strange, to say the least.

By Albert Breer

Can the Patriots win the Super Bowl without Asante Samuel?

Sure they can.

Are their chances as good without him?

Dumb question.

Somewhere along the line, over the last five months, and through the shrouded negotiations between this team and its star cornerback, the Kool-Aid drinking public made a decision. And it was a little strange, to say the least.

In December, they were howling around these parts about Samuel's omission from the party the AFC was sending to the Pro Bowl. Rashean Mathis? How could they!

But then something funny happened. This very good corner coming off a career year got into a squabble with the team he plays for. And suddenly, his stock dropped. Like a rock.

Now you hear words like ``average'' thrown around. You hear ``flash-in-the-pan.'' You hear ``system player.''

Which, of course, is about as valid as the idea floated last summer that Deion Branch's value to the Patriot offense was overrated.

How does a guy go from Pro Bowl snub to egomaniac with an inflated self-value? Easy. He digs his heels in, and takes on the brass of a three-time Super Bowl champion that's got a beyond-reproach record of knowing who to keep and who to let go.

Well, in this case, it's pretty obvious which way they decided go with their 2003 fourth-round pick. You don't stick the franchise tag on a guy you don't want to stick around.

This player's true value actually lies somewhere in between what Samuel's asking for, and what the Patriots are willing to pay. And based on what other teams would pay to get him, it actually lies closer to the player's side of this argument. Which is why negotiations never really got off the ground.

Now, so things are clear, Samuel is not worth the eight-year, $80 million bank robbery Nate Clements pulled off. Clements - a better and more versatile player than Samuel - probably isn't either.

But here's the thing: Samuel is the Patriots' Clements. He's their Champ Bailey. He's their Chris McAlister, their replacement for Ty Law.

That's not to say that he is as good as those guys. He isn't. But to his team, he's close to being as important.

Go back to tape for evidence. Find one place where, last year, Samuel got toasted.

We'll give you some up-and-down play against Colts receiver Reggie Wayne in November. But beyond that? Good luck finding some holes in his season.

It's not just the 10 interceptions (12 including the playoffs) - an overrated statistic on the whole - either. It's the way he improved his tackling. It's the way he forced teams to throw elsewhere. It's the way this guy's consistently gotten better over his four years, because he wants to be the best, and not necessarily because he wants to get paid.

In the playoffs, he was airtight. The Chargers hardly dared to throw the ball in his direction on Jan. 14. The Colts did, and paid with Samuel's 39-yard interception return for a touchdown, where the corner deftly hid behind Marvin Harrison and timed his break perfectly, showing explosion and hands in the process. Samuel and Ellis Hobbs were so good in that game that the Colts were forced to move Wayne into the slot to create matchups in their favor.

Sound like a valuable guy? Yeah, and everyone knew it then.

Now, if Chad Scott and Randall Gay can stay healthy, or Eugene Wilson and Brandon Meriweather emerge as capable of handling the demands at corner, the Patriots would probably be OK. Even if a couple of those things don't happen, this team could be loaded enough to make it to Arizona for the Super Bowl.

But the important thing to remember here is that the Patriots aren't the only good, or even great team in the AFC. For as much as New England did, the Colts and Chargers remain in the same talent ballpark, with players that have been together for longer, and there's a pretty good chance a team like the Bengals or Broncos or Ravens emerges from the pack to challenge the elite.

What that means is this: Home-field advantage and playoff byes will be vital. Over the last two years, this fact has hit the Patriots square in the mouth. A fatigued team faded in Indianapolis last year. The year before, New England was forced into playing in the Denver hornet's nest.

You could argue that the team would already have a fourth ring, or even a fifth, if it could've secured home-field advantage in the regular season in '05 and '06.

Last year, that was especially true. Had the Patriots defeated the Colts in November, the AFC title game would've been played at Gillette. The high temperature in Foxboro that day, by the way, was in the mid-20s.

The Patriots play the Chargers on Sept. 17 and the Colts on Nov. 6. The Bengals and Ravens are also on the schedule. Will Samuel play at an elite level in those games? That's impossible to say.

But he's proven he could be the difference between winning and losing. Which could make him the difference between a bye or an extra home playoff game in a highly-competitive race. Which could be the difference between winning a Super Bowl and coming close.

Last time we checked, those are things that ``average'' corners who are ``system players'' rarely do.

Albert Breer is a MetroWest Daily News (Framingham, Mass.) staff writer. He can be reached at abreer@cnc.com or 508-626-3872.