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Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

I think the coaches deserve some blame. Today they should be coaching him by explaining why his audible on 1st and goal was a bad one. Furthermore they ought to consider taking away his ability to audible in certain circumstances in the future. Mike Ditka did that to his QB, now infamous coach for the 49ers, while coach of the Bears after a stupid audible

I look at it like a team with great shooters in basketball. If they're really talented and create their own shots, but you start scaring them into taking shots, they will start passing up open looks. It will then mitigate their ability to create and make shots.

It's the same way with a QB throwing to talented receivers. If you start lecturing him about trusting his receivers to go up and make a catch, he's going to start getting gun shy and you will be wasting your receivers' talent. I don't think there's an in between... either you trust him to throw the ball up and let the receivers go get them, or you don't. You have to live with the fact some balls will be underthrown or that you might see a mistake early in the game. To me, with the Bengals' receivers, it's worth the few extra interceptions because their receivers make so many plays and the Bengals score so often. And when you have a great defense, you can afford some mistakes.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by traderumor

You do realize that the interception came right after they flashed the stat in pregame of 131 consecutive passes without an interception? So looking at one pass and saying "they are poor at taking care of the ball" is a bit of a stretch. If Jones holds on, he's likely racing down the sidelines for a large gain of more than 25 yards. I would say making a big bet on play 1 gives you dozens more plays to overcome a bad outcome. Classic high risk/high reward. Jim Tressel would love you as a playcaller

If MJ hangs onto that ball he'll immediately be pushed out of bounds. Dalton threw 20 INTs this year. That's not taking care of the ball. Just when you think he's progressed (like 131 consecutive passes) he goes out and throws 4 INTs in a game his team had well in hand and was winning at the LOS.

Jim Tressel was a very good coach. He would not have had the success he did by taking such unnecessary risks while playing vs inferior talent in the Big Ten.

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Brutus

I look at it like a team with great shooters in basketball. If they're really talented and create their own shots, but you start scaring them into taking shots, they will start passing up open looks. It will then mitigate their ability to create and make shots.

It's the same way with a QB throwing to talented receivers. If you start lecturing him about trusting his receivers to go up and make a catch, he's going to start getting gun shy and you will be wasting your receivers' talent. I don't think there's an in between... either you trust him to throw the ball up and let the receivers go get them, or you don't. You have to live with the fact some balls will be underthrown or that you might see a mistake early in the game. To me, with the Bengals' receivers, it's worth the few extra interceptions because their receivers make so many plays and the Bengals score so often. And when you have a great defense, you can afford some mistakes.

There are times to have your receivers go up and make a play and times where that call is a bad one. 1st and ten is almost always a bad time to throw a pass up for grabs to a well covered WR and ask him to "make a play". Simple as that

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by traderumor

Except you were not talking about that particular situation, you were talking about general philosophy, which is what I spoke to. All things considered, it may not have been a great choice, but we weren't discussing from the perspective of "all things considered" when I responded. You baited and switched.

I believe the general philosophy statement your referring to specifically dealt with 1st and goal, less than a yard, when you get 3 shots at it. If i didnt make that clear, my bad. But comparing that to 3rd and 1 elsewhere where you only get one shot to convert is moving the goal posts as it were. I think I saw it in a Tuesday Morning Quarterback column years ago where he broke down the success rate of run versus pass in 1st and goal less than a yard situations and the run was overwhelmingly more successful than the pass in those situations.

Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

There are times to have your receivers go up and make a play and times where that call is a bad one. 1st and ten is almost always a bad time to throw a pass up for grabs to a well covered WR and ask him to "make a play". Simple as that

Why is 1st and 10 any different? What makes that any worse a play?

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Brutus

Why is 1st and 10 any different? What makes that any worse a play?

Seriously?

If you throw incomplete on 1st and ten, you can get the first down on 2nd or 3rd down. If you fail on 3rd down, you're giving up the ball anyway. I don't want to give up any downs. Every down my offense has the ball is a down that my team controls.

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

If MJ hangs onto that ball he'll immediately be pushed out of bounds. Dalton threw 20 INTs this year. That's not taking care of the ball. Just when you think he's progressed (like 131 consecutive passes) he goes out and throws 4 INTs in a game his team had well in hand and was winning at the LOS.

Jim Tressel was a very good coach. He would not have had the success he did by taking such unnecessary risks while playing vs inferior talent in the Big Ten.

Well, citing raw interceptions doesn't give much context. One needs to look at rates rather than raw numbers. It's true Dalton was slightly worse than average at throwing interceptions (league rate was 3.0% of pass attempts, Dalton was 3.4%). However, that difference amounts to only about two extra interceptions worse than an average QB would have thrown with Dalton's attempts over the course of a season.

Here is the interception percentage among QBs with at least 350 attempts:

However, he also threw for 33 touchdowns, which gave him the sixth best TD/attempt rate in the entire league. Again, it's a trade-off... you have to trust your QB to make some plays.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Seriously?

If you throw incomplete on 1st and ten, you can get the first down on 2nd or 3rd down. If you fail on 3rd down, you're giving up the ball anyway. I don't want to give up any downs. Every down my offense has the ball is a down that my team controls.

So by that logic, teams should never throw the ball further than 2-3 yards on first down because it might be an incomplete pass.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Brutus

Well, citing raw interceptions doesn't give much context. One needs to look at rates rather than raw numbers. It's true Dalton was slightly worse than average at throwing interceptions (league rate was 3.0% of pass attempts, Dalton was 3.4%). However, that difference amounts to only about two extra interceptions worse than an average QB would have thrown with Dalton's attempts over the course of a season.

Here is the interception percentage among QBs with at least 350 attempts:

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Not at all. Don't throw it to a guy who isn't open.

Open is a subjective term. When you have A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, you don't need to have separation to be "open." That's the whole point of throwing the ball up in the air, because more times than not, they're going to catch it.

If the Bengals stopped throwing the ball to Green when he's not "open," then it would completely misuse his talent.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Brutus

Open is a subjective term. When you have A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, you don't need to have separation to be "open." That's the whole point of throwing the ball up in the air, because more times than not, they're going to catch it.

If the Bengals stopped throwing the ball to Green when he's not "open," then it would completely misuse his talent.

I totally disagree and I hope Jay Gruden doesn't agree with you either. You gotta give the defense respect too. Those aren't chumps playing CB. They're athletic too. I also don't share your optimism when a jump ball goes up in the air. When Dalton throws one, I don't get all giddy confident that something good will happen. I know full well it may get tipped or intercepted. On 1st and ten, I want to see passes thrown to open WRs. If they're not open, you do something else

Re: 2013 Bengals Discussion (Part 3)

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

I totally disagree and I hope Jay Gruden doesn't agree with you either. You gotta give the defense respect too. Those aren't chumps playing CB. They're athletic too. I also don't share your optimism when a jump ball goes up in the air. When Dalton throws one, I don't get all giddy confident that something good will happen. I know full well it may get tipped or intercepted. On 1st and ten, I want to see passes thrown to open WRs. If they're not open, you do something else

Andy Dalton completed 62 percent of his passes this season and threw touchdowns on nearly six percent. He's doing something right with the strategy employed by the Bengals.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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