Thursday, January 31, 2013

I’m a few days late on this, but it’s worth pointing out that
any competent investigator or interrogator interviews subjects or sources separately
and apart, and schedules interviews so respondents don’t have time to compare
notes and learn to repeat one another’s lies, deceptions and distortions.The time tested technique is to get each
person to commit to his or her story, and then come back at them later with the
inconsistencies between answers, particularly when the truth is unknown and
there has already been an effort to deceive.That’s how to drill down to reality.

So, was the Hillary and Barack interview, joint at their
insistence and limited to a half hour, really about showing their love and
mutual respect?Not in the least. It was about washing and cleansing themselves
of a spotty record and, more importantly, a scandal in a forum where Steve Kroft had absolutely zero chance to get at
the truth. The "state run media" interview was
theater. There was no truth seeking – not in
Washington.

We didn’t know what happened leading up to, during or after the
administration’s whitewashing of the events in Benghazi.We still don’t know.And we never will.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Earlier today, the Department of Commerce released the 2012 Quarter 4 GDP report. GDP showed a decline in economic output driven primarily by a 22 percent annualized decrease in defense spending. Despite sharp decreases in defense expenditures, new revenues accruing from a return to economic growth and the revenue effect of tax hikes that went into effect on January 1, the 2013 Federal deficit will nudge up against a trillion dollars, reflecting the immense burden of entitlement spending.
Social Security and Medicare are the most expensive entitlements. Because the first baby boomers turned 65 in only 2011, Social Security and Medicare spending have just begun to surge. As the immense baby boomer cohort ages (5-year cohorts grow from around 10 million to near 20 million, see table below) retirements will cause massive increases in the number of beneficiaries on the Medicare and Social Security rolls. There is no avoiding the entitlement tsunami.
But you don’t care and the President you elected doesn’t care. You want to pass these costs along to your children until they finally wake up to reality and rebel. Party on seniors and enjoy the munificence while the getting is good.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

I was proud.After dropping
out of the lap swimming fraternity for fifteen years and packing on the pounds,
I jumped back in the pool when the November snows came.Purchasing a quarterly pass at Bozeman Swim
Center I became a morning regular and met Leonard, who swims Mondays, Wednesdays
and Fridays.He is 84 years young, a
great guy and an old track athlete who swims a mile.I started at about 800 yards, gradually
increased to 1,000, then 1,200 and up to 1,400 yards.Then one day last week I pushed ahead to
1,800 yards.I swam a mile!How about that?

In the locker room I was still huffing and puffing. Leonard inquired of my workout.I told him it went well, I had made the
mile.“Congratulations” he said.The Aquatics Director walked in and asked
“How are you doing?”“Great” I said, “Just swam a mile!”Maybe I can celebrate
a little tonight I thought.The Director
went on, “I don’t know how to ask this, but we need someone who is really big
to drill lifesaving techniques.Could you stay after the public swim one day
next week and let my lifeguards practice rescuing you?I could give put an extra month or two on
your swim pass.”I said, “Oh yes I’ll
be happy to.”After thinking for a
moment I continued, “And my goal is a year from now I won’t be big enough to
suit your needs.”

“Kids should be able to ride safely. I know from my own experience, you don’t need
a pickup truck to drive a child to school or to go out for an ice cream cone.This is reasonable regulation.Pickup trucks need a single seat, maybe two –
no more.I don’t aim to prohibit Ford F
Series trucks altogether.I realize
farmers, ranchers and contractors have legitimate uses for these machines.But it’s time to put an end to urban cowboys,
socialite soccer moms, Republicans from Massachusetts and would be gentleman
farmers recklessly endangering the public with big, powerful, multi-passenger pickup
trucks.Leave powerful pickups to us. “

Tester continued,

“General Motors and Chrysler
Corporation are model corporate citizens entering their fifth year of unquestionably
yielding to urgent public policy imperatives.It’s time Allen Mullaly and his crew over at Ford Motor Corporation gets
on board.The truck control crisis creates
an opportunity to infuse much needed balance into the auto industry.”

Tester signaled the legislation will exempt landholders
owning or leasing ten or more acres, farmers or ranchers who drive 100 hp or
larger tractors, contractors who operate a backhoe, bulldozer or front end
loader, and entities at all levels of government.To limit impulsive purchases, there will be a
two week cooling off period when pickup trucks cannot be purchased before Christmas.Acknowledging the importance
of forestry interests to the Montana state economy, Tester has asked the lumber
industry for input on what legitimate interests might be served by allowing it
to continue to use pickup trucks. Some
truck control activists, who refused to be identified by name because of the
sensitivity of the matter, acknowledge they would be open to limiting
restrictions to trucks equipped with automatic transmissions, which are known
to permit poorly trained drivers to gun the engines and accelerate rapidly.

Senator Tester’s legislation closes the notorious Penny Saver loophole.Non-dealer pickup owners would
no longer be able to advertise trucks for sale in unregulated markets.Owners may, however, turn pickup trucks in to
local police departments or other designated law enforcement agencies without fear
of prosecution.The law expands the
duties of and renames the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, as the
Bureau of Stuff That Uppity Progressives Insist Desist (STUPID). After opportunities for public input, STUPID
will publish the rules and regulations it has already written defining what Ford
F-Series pickup trucks are covered by the legislation.

A coalition of vehicle manufacturers including Subaru USA, Volkswagen
USA, BMW USA, Mercedes USA and Hyundai USA, has come out in favor of the
Tester bill. To build support for the legislation, they
launched the website www.wedontbuildpickuptrucks.com.

Jon Tester is serving his second six-year term in the
United States Senate.He was returned
to his senate seat with a resounding plurality when the opposition vote split last
November between Republican candidate Denny Rehberg and Libertarian candidate
Dan Cox. During the campaign Senator Tester said he is no Barack Obama puppet. He will support truck control legislation so long as President Obama opposes it.

Joseph Banks Clothiers stock is dropping like a rock today after the company updated its earnings outlook Friday night.In a press release the company said,

We are
disappointed that we were not able to drive the sales gains we had expected.
The fourth quarter started out slowly, as the first two weeks of fiscal
November were negatively impacted by the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, the
distractions created by the presidential election and the uncertainty of the
fiscal cliff. Going into the critical holiday selling season, starting on Black
Friday, we believed we had a strong marketing and promotional strategy for the
period. However, many of the promotional items and a large part of our holiday
assortment were items that sell best in cold weather and the weather was
unseasonably warm.

Given the company’s dismal business prospects, I would suggest employees
in its PR Department look elsewhere for employment.The White House, with its current round of staff turnover, might be a good prospect particularly because the flacks would not have to change their list of excuses
– not a bit.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

I took a look yesterday at real estate sales in our old Arlington
Virginia neighborhood, and there it popped up – a new street view photograph of our former Arlington home on
Google Maps.The picture shows the house
as of a late June Friday morning last year, the timing identifiable by trash receptacles out front, the position of the sun and the “For Sale” sign with an “Under Contract” addendum. For posterity, or at least for the several years that stand in for posterity on
the Internet, our old pre-WW II revival colonial is primed for sale.The grass is lush and green, foliage
clipped, flower beds mulched, porch, garage door and trim freshly
painted, porch glider adorned with fresh cushions, the porch itself framed by
hanging flower baskets and sitting flower boxes, and new double hung windows installed.It never looked better.Even so, Google Maps does not do the house (or the work Teresa and I put
into it) full justice.The Mouse On House picture I took below presents a street view better and brighter.

﻿﻿

Mouse On House Street View

﻿

I showed these pictures to the kids, asked if they missed the old place.Our South 5th Street home was one
of the dozen largest in its Arlington Heights neighborhood. So what do the kids say?Blake says "Nice cottage."Blythe says "It's like a chicken
coop."It sure didn’t take the kids long
to adjust to the open expanses and larger sizes out West.Someday I suppose they will be off to college where they will need to
confront down-size reality once again.

As for myself, I wish Google had waited a few months to
refresh the picture because I would have liked to see the front porch with the railings, side extension and stairs down to the driveway, which I understand the new
owners have built in.I expect it will
be some point beyond Internet posterity when I have the pleasure.

The
Big Mac’s popularity has risen to the point where TheEconomist Magazine
prepares a Big Mac Index which gauges purchasing power parity across currencies
by comparing the purchase prices of a Big Mac among countries.Bottom
line, if you are traipsing off to the Ukraine, South Africa or Egypt, then chow
down and enjoy cheap eats.But if the fjords of Norway, the
rain forests of Brazil or the Australian Outback are beckoning, you had best go
vegan if you want to protect your pocketbook.

Dad
was wrong about my liking the “(t)wo all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions
– all on a sesame seed bun.”It seems I
learned a lesson that day.Never,
ever eat a cold Big Mac.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Young
people, don't think you will get to join club Fed, not for a moment.To the contrary it is your patriotic duty to
support it.

“It is characteristic of
any Ponzi fraud that the people who get in on the ground floor do well. That
makes the scheme popular; people clamor to get in. This is what has happened
with Social Security and Medicare here in the U.S. Past and current beneficiaries
are receiving benefits that are entirely disproportionate to what they paid in.
This obviously cannot continue indefinitely. Every Ponzi fraud inevitably
crashes when its exponential growth cannot be sustained because there is not
enough new money–not enough suckers, to put it bluntly. In the context of
entitlements, ‘new money’ means young people. That point is now approaching
rather rapidly.”

“After pension reform went down in flames last
week, Illinois moved to Plan B: war on the young. Governor Pat Quinn’s
administration claims that the upcoming budget will include major cutbacks on
state services to make room for a $1 billion increase in pension spending. Most
notably, education spending will decrease by $400 million, which would make
2013 the third straight year in which education spending has dropped.”

“Sticking it to either group, the young or the
old, isn’t appealing, but the boomers are politically organized and better
positioned to fight for their interests, particularly because powerful unions
are on their side. The young, by contrast, are among the least politically
active groups in the country, making them much easier for politicians to
ignore. Illinois has obviously chosen the path of least resistance.”

AARP stuck to me like flypaper when I moved across the country. The baby boomer lobbyists are filling my mail box with fliers beseeching me to re-up my ten year AARP membership before it expires later this year. I have wisened so I won't be offering them the pleasure of a reply, but that makes me part of the one percent. The other 99 percent of the baby boomers has young people squarely in their fiscal crosshairs.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

How would you like to have had a money
market account in the zero interest rate environment of the last few years that
paid better than 2 percent?How would
you like to buy bonds that will adjust to higher interest rates with no
decrease in principal value?If you are
an ordinary person, saving and investing, planning to buy house, hoping to fund a
college education or contemplating retirement, you don’t have these options because you are not a federal employee.You can stash your money in an interest
bearing account that pays 0.01 percent.Or you can package a bundle of long term treasury bonds that yields 2-plus
percent, but the package will lose value, and result likely in an overall net loss
when the Federal Reserve Board reverts to standard monetary policy with higher
interest rates a year or two down the road.

The federal employee option that you don’t have is
referred to as the G Fund in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP).The TSP website
describes the G Fund thus.

“Fund principal and
interest is guaranteed by the U.S. Government. This means that the U.S. Government
will always make the required payments. In other words, your G Fund investment
is not subject to credit (default) risk. The G Fund interest rate
calculation is based on the weighted average yield of all outstanding Treasurynotes and bonds with 4 or more years to maturity. As a result, participants who
invest in the G Fund are rewarded with a long-term rate on what is essentially
a short-term security. Generally, long-term interest rates are higher than
short-term rates.”

The one, three, five and ten year
returns for the G Fund, compared to the same timeframe returns for a commercially available government
money market fund, are given in the following table.Note that for the last three years, the G Fund
offered 2.2 percent better annual returns than the money market fund.

Credit card fraud using Postal Service issued travel cards identified by the Inspector General is tiny in the grand scheme of things. Have to wonder why the supposed watchdogs don't focus on the much larger issue of handing over frequent flier miles and hotel awards earned for official travel, to personal use by employees who rack up the perk points by the hundreds of thousands on Uncle Sam's dime. It's symptomatic of what happens these days government wide. Agencies are run for the benefit of the employees, to hell with the ratepayer or taxpayer. More than anything Obama's "We the People" is "We the Feds."

Sunday, January 20, 2013

It’s
January 20th, Inauguration day.And for the first of these quadrennial events during the last 32 years, I’m not in Washington, DC.

Ronald Regan Swearing In
January 20, 1981

I
am reminded of my first – January 20, 1981.Ronald Wilson Reagan was inaugurated as the 40th President of
the United States.The Gipper came back from early polling deficits
to shellac Jimmy Carter, a President whose image was fatally tarnished by
vacillation and ineffectiveness during the Iranian Hostage Crisis. If the moralizing and temporizing JC could not take on a bunch of unruly university students who kidnapped American diplomats,
how could he be expected to successfully confront the infinitely larger threats
posed by the USSR and its Cold War allies? The economy struggled with recession and
double digit inflation.The former Governor
from Georgia told the US populous they were at fault, suffering from
malaise.Jimmy Carter was toast.

﻿

West Portico of Capitol
and Reflecting Pool

The
morning of the ceremony we took a Metrobus from our apartment in Alexandria to
the District.Because we would be a couple hundred yards
distant, I carried along binoculars and a transistor radio, to better see and
hear the inaugural address.We settled
in on the National Mall just across the Capitol Reflecting Pool, as close as us non-ticket holders
could get to the podium and reviewing stand built and deconstructed
every four years for the occasion.

About Me

I had things I wanted to say and became tired of trying to force fit views by commenting on other people's blogs, so I started this enterprise. Contact me at gradyfosterone@gmail.com
Your comments are welcome. If they are relevant, and when negative, stick to sticking it to only to public figures and don't defame or invade anyone's privacy. I'll publish them.
Extended stories about life and family history are especially fun to write. We have the great fortune to have had many relatives who had prominent civic, professional, and/or political lives, which yields many thousands of references memorialized in press clippings and otherwise. I have received plenty of help from relatives who choose to remain unnamed. Those stories garner high readership. They are tagged with "Bathgate."
I would say my politics are libertarian leaning. I seldom vote for Democrats, and usually don't vote for Republicans -- I have been known to get writer's cramp in the voting booth.
Please do read and enjoy.