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NATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR URBAN DUAL-MODE SYSTEMS

This study determined that 44 urbanized areas accounting for 68 percent of the 1990 urbanized area population are potential candidates for urbanwide dual-mode systems. These numbers in themselves would appear to justify further research and development (funded by federal and other sources) of dual mode. However, if the various constraints and assumptions used in this analysis were relaxed or changed, the potential marker for dual mode would expand considerably. For example if the constraint of urbanwide service with a specified access time were relaxed, the list of dual-mode candidates would expand to include areas with a need and ability to pay for corridor or limited-area circulation systems. A different definition of the size, composition and operation of the dual-mode vehicle fleet would like-wise enlarge the dual-mode market. Perhaps the most far- reaching change in assumptions would be a statutory revision permitting a higher federal contribution to transit project costs. If, for instance, the federal government's share increased to 90 percent, even the small urbanized areas with relatively limited fiscal capabilities could consider dual mode as an alternative transportation system. Since, then, the potential market for dual mode is even larger than that specifically identified in this study (i.e., more than 68 percent of the urbanized area population), it is considered that there is a strong case for continuing to explore the various technological, economic, and social issues related to dual mode. /Author/