000
FXUS63 KICT 170439
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Vertically stacked low pressure area currently located over
Northern KS, will slowly makes its way into northeast KS as the late
afternoon and evening progresses. Actually seeing some moisture and
showers wrapping all the way around the south side of the low into
areas along Interstate 70, but think as the evening progresses most
of this activity will stay to the north of the forecast area.
To the south of the low, very strong west/northwest winds will
continue across southern KS, with much drier air and some wind
gusts to 50 mph. This will continue to lead to extreme to
catastrophic/extreme grassland fire danger values into the early
evening hours. (see the fire weather section below for more
details). Will see a gradual decrease in the winds on the south
side of the system for the late evening hours, as the low shifts
into NE KS. But will keep the wind advisory going into the early
evening.
Cooler air will spread southward on Saturday as the low pressure
area shifts to the east of the area, with dry weather expected.
The cooler/drier weather will be short lived as the next system
currently just off the OR/Nrn CA coast dives south into the desert
SW early on Sun and into the srn plains by Sun afternoon. As this
low deepens, mid level flow shifts to more a SW flow, with
widespread warm advection/moisture return into KS by Sun
afternoon/evening. Latest GFS/ECMWF models coming in a little
further to the north than previous runs suggested, on the track of
the low, which will shift most of south central KS into the warm
sector, with precip on the north-NE side of the low now shifting
further north into central KS. Still seeing a widespread shower and
embedded thunderstorm chance moving into most of the forecast area
for Sun afternoon/evening, as warm advection ahead of the system
increases. With a more northern location, lift and steep lapse rates
are expected to increase across central KS for Sunday evening.
Surface based instability will be limited (around 1000 j/kg), but
elevated instability and increasing bulk shear to 70-80 kts suggests
a few elevated severe storms may develop along a dryline expected to
push into central KS for Sun eve. The best precip chance may also
shift a little further north, over central KS, as portions of south
central KS may see a dry slot push in. Still think the better
rainfall amounts will be north of Highway 50. It still looks like
this will be best precip chance the area has seen in a long while
as track of the low moves east across southern KS. Stay tuned.
Precipitation looks to wrap around the upper low pressure center for
late Sunday night and linger into Monday for the eastern half of the
state.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Otherwise cooler drier air will begin to overspread the
region on Monday with gusty northwest winds. Dry weather conditions
will prevail for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
MVFR ceilings ongoing at KRSL and in the vicinity of KSLN at this
time. Models remain rather indecisive on boundary layer moisture
with no clear cut signal for trend overnight. Given low continues
to move east and no sign of upslope flow, would anticipate clouds
to decrease throughout the night, with KSLN being last to clear.
That said, both NAM and RUC suggest small band of higher boundary
layer relative humidity redevelops between KSLN/KRSL at 1200 UTC
which migrates east/dissipates by 1500 UTC. This may suggest
potential for at least some lower clouds in central KS through
daybreak. Confidence is too low to mention a ceiling by at that
time. Winds continue to diminish/veer throughout the period,
likely becoming light and variable after sunset. -Howerton
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Extreme to catastrophic grassland fire danger index numbers will
persist into the evening hours as strong gusty west winds continue
across the area. Winds are expected to diminish late this evening.
Gusty northwest winds and dry air could lead to very high grassland
fire danger levels for Monday afternoon across the entire area,
however this will depend on how much and what areas receive rainfall
from Sunday`s weather system.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 36 64 39 65 / 0 0 0 50
Hutchinson 33 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 40
Newton 35 62 37 64 / 0 0 0 50
ElDorado 35 64 39 65 / 0 0 0 50
Winfield-KWLD 37 66 40 65 / 0 0 0 50
Russell 30 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 30
Great Bend 29 64 36 66 / 0 0 0 30
Salina 33 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 40
McPherson 33 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 50
Coffeyville 40 65 39 64 / 0 0 10 60
Chanute 38 62 37 63 / 0 0 0 60
Iola 39 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 50
Parsons-KPPF 38 64 39 64 / 0 0 0 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham