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While the idea of volunteering to take on $20 million of Adam Dunn is a little scary, I am surprised that the author of the story doesn't use data that makes a stronger case for Dunn as a decent risk for Baltimore or Texas. Consider this:

The BABIP is radically different in the two segments: in the .100s in the first half, .357 in the second half. The walks are the same, the power is identical, so it seems the two differences are:

1) He is making contact a ton more often, and
2) his BABIP when makes contact is, like, 175 points higher.

I would expect the BABIP to settle in between the two extremes, if forced to guess, but what's with the dramatic increase in contact? I don't watch him play often - is there somebody here who could explain anything other than small sample size?

BBRef lists Dunn's splits for 17 different months in his time in Chicago. He's had 9 months with an OPS+ of 90 or below, and 5 months with an OPS+ of 140 or higher. Only three that would be described as "middling" for a player of Dunn's profile -- two 110s and a 114.

I can't imagine any other veteran hitter with such a potential variance going forward. He might lead the majors in homers the rest of the way, he might go 160/240/230. Neither result would be hugely surprising.

The fun thing about Dunn is that after looking he was seriously in peril of falling off the planet in 2011, he's recovered enough that he now looks like he's got a really, really good shot at getting to 500 HRs. He's at 432 now, and favorite toy puts his chances at reaching 500 over 95%.

Unless he puts up another 2011-type clunker, it would take injury or walk away for him to miss 500.

Given that no one has seen fit to PED taint him yet, does that mean he stands alone as the only 500 HR guy (sans taints) to be on the outside looking in?

Despite his TTO-ness and his obviously negligible to negative defensive value, I still think Dunn is underrated in total. One/two dimensional though he might be, he ought to finish his career with an OBP north of .360 and an SLG around .500. His career OPS+ is 125.

That might not be HOF level, but it's pretty good...

I don't mean to insult Harmon Killebrew - Killer was obviously a ton better player and while he and Dunn are both high OBP/prodigious power guys, Killer likewise laps Dunn on that skillset (especially if you era adjust)... but Adam Dunn really is kind of a K-Mart version of Killebrew.

I don't mean to insult Harmon Killebrew - Killer was obviously a ton better player and while he and Dunn are both high OBP/prodigious power guys, Killer likewise laps Dunn on that skillset (especially if you era adjust)... but Adam Dunn really is kind of a K-Mart version of Killebrew.

And like zonk says, that sells him short. A couple of extra walks? Per 162 games, Kingman had 51 BBs, Dun 109. Thus, Dunn's 125 OPS+ to Kong's 115. I'm with you on the much worse defense thing. But he's significantly better than Kingman. Maybe halfway between Kingman and Frank Howard.

I don't mean to insult Harmon Killebrew - Killer was obviously a ton better player and while he and Dunn are both high OBP/prodigious power guys, Killer likewise laps Dunn on that skillset (especially if you era adjust)... but Adam Dunn really is kind of a K-Mart version of Killebrew.

He's Dave Kingman, with a couple extra walks and even worse defense.

It's not just a "couple extra walks" -- Kingman's career AVG was 236, OBP of 302... Dunn's career AVG is 239 -- but his career OBP is 368... Kingman's career high in BBs was 61... Dunn has led the the majors in walks twice, and eclipsed 100 BBs seven times.

*(Briefly a workout partner with Bonds, and therefore, by the "logic" of these things, presumptively suspicious, but usually not included on the spectrum of speculation.)

Sheffield has admitted to using 'the cream' and 'the clear' saying he did not know they contained any PEDs. Used the cream on his injured knee and used the clear to feel more energized. He said he stopped using the clear after two months because it wasn't doing anything.

(Admittedly, there was a season or so where this seemed plausible, but then Morgan spontaneously combusted.)

Sheff for the HOF is interesting because, while I think the writers generally dislike him, I think they simultaneously respect him. It's quite similar to Jim Rice -- certain players are able to spin their jackhole personality into a narrative of "fiery competitiveness" and "a fearsome persona." I can't predict that Sheff will get 75%, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he did a lot better than e.g. Sosa, even though it'd be hard to find an angle where that makes sense.

I do think that having 500-HR hitters not in the HOF hurts Dunn's chances. Even if everyone knows that those guys aren't in because they're viewed to be "dirty" and Dunn is viewed to be "clean", I still think that if Dunn were the only one out, they'd eventually put him in, but now they won't feel like they have to. The writers don't even seem all that nuts about electing Thome, but they will, because he's so far past 500 that he forces their hand. Dunn probably won't be able to do that.

Kingman had 17 WAR and Howard 38, and almost halfway between them is Mickey Tettleton at 29, a similar hitter to Dunn. Tettleton, a bit like Gene Tenace before him, was both helped and hurt by his modest abilities as a catcher. On the one hand, catching made them valuable; on the other, it limited their playing time and slowed their development. Dunn, by contrast, had no such advantage or disadvantage; the only attribute he has is his bat, so if he's going to play for you at all, you stick him in the middle of the lineup and he gets his TTOs.

Running some permutations of Kingman through favorite toy, he was in the 90%+ range to blow through 500 HRs, too, I guess... In fact, despite being atrocious in his final (age 37) season - he did hit 35 HRs (to with a 90 OPS+ and a 250 OBP).

If you pretend it's December 1986 -- and plug Kingman into favorite toy, it says 94% chance he gets to 500.

I remember the good old days when baseball fans were arguing who was better, Adam Dunn or Ichiro.

Yeah, it is kind of sad that Ichiro has fallen off his prior acceptable performance so badly, the last couple of years. His lifetime OPS is going to drop below .780; and for a lead-off hitter with no power to have an on-base percentage of .363 (Dunn, the sluggers? .368) is really kind of sad. They do not even play him against good lefties any more (he sat last week when they played Kershaw and Sale). If he gets to 3000 hits, it will be an interesting test, about the same as Dunn at 500 HRs.

Not to toss Ray chum into the water, but Ichiro is going to the HoF... He's got the single season hit record, an interesting back story, and I think he'll get some manner of NBL credit whether he should or not. He's going to the Hall of Fame regardless of whether he's actually deserving or not.

There is no possible way Adam Dunn was as bad defensively as bbref says. Chick Gandil probably wasn't that bad defensively in the 1919 World Series.

Yeah, I've never understood how it was possible for Dunn to rack up -5.2 dWAR in 2009 unless he was chasing butterflies, giving random baserunners great big hugs, and periodically pooping his pants instead of attempting to field his position. If he was that bad, surely somebody would have noticed. Somebody would have said something at the time, no?

Yeah, I've never understood how it was possible for Dunn to rack up -5.2 dWAR in 2009 unless he was chasing butterflies, giving random baserunners great big hugs, and periodically pooping his pants instead of attempting to field his position. If he was that bad, surely somebody would have noticed. Somebody would have said something at the time, no?

Sheffield seemed to get a pass on the PED stuff because he admitted using to the Grand Jury claiming, basically, the George Costanza sleeping with the cleaning lady defense. ("Was that wrong? Should I not have done that? I tell you, I gotta plead ignorence on this thing, because if anyone had said anything to me at all when I first started here that that sort of thing is frowned upon...")

TTO hitters tend to have extreme swings. Well, in one sense, probably no more than other hitters only it's just more noticeable. Basically they go through stretches when they're only K'ing once every 5 PA and since everything else they do is HR or walk, they look awesome. Then they go through bad stretches when they K twice per 5 PA and really nobody can hit well enough to overcome that. (When he doesn't strike out, Dunn reaches base slightly over 50% of the time ... when you K 1 per 5 that's a 400 OBP; when you K 2 per 5 that's a 300 OBP. And, with Dunn, that 300 OBP stretch is gonna come with a BA under 200.)

One nice thing about Dunn is that his platoon split isn't too bad as these things go: 220/339/441 vs LHP. That's still serviceable and little to gain if you pinch-hit for him with a typical RHB bench corner player who puts up a low 800s OPS vs LHP.

But I also note his career Sept/Oct split is quite bad. I don't put much stock in these things but it's different enough in a fairly large sample of PAs that it's at least interesting. For Sept/Oct his career OPS is just 750 (1125 PA). His next lowest month is 835 (August) so that's a pretty big gap. He has just 41 HR and his next lowest month is 70 (April in a roughly equal number of PA). His ISO is 188, next lowest month is 250.

Like I said, I don't generally put much stock in such things but, with all the other question marks around acquiring Dunn, that would probably be enough to put me off acquiring him for the 2013 stretch run.

If we want to put that much stock in the specifics of Dunn's personal history, he did in fact once get traded on August 11, and did fine :)

I think we can assume that Dunn will do what he does... but he's not worth the contract to begin with, and he's worth even less if you can't DH him. I think the Red Sox and Royals are ok with their current DHs. Detroit isn't giving up on Victor Martinez, who may be finally coming around anyway. That leaves Tampa, Baltimore, Yanks, Cleveland, Oakland and Texas. Some of those teams have plausible DH alternatives (TB, OAK, TEX), some kind of don't, but I still don't see why any of them should want to give Dunn that much money through 2014. Perhaps you could get something if you pay some of his salary, sure.

adam did bottom out in 2006 when he let himself get sloppy fat. he recovered a bit next season but was never where he was in 2002/2003 when he was just subpar.

As I recall it, he played through an injury late that summer (knee?) and was just awful down the stretch. That year, the Reds were surprise fringe contenders up to August. Dunn was actually a decent runner before then.

I love the fact that two guys who couldn't possibly be more different as ballplayers have virtually the same WAR total at BBRef (though I tend to agree that his defensive figure overstates his awfulness).

I love the fact that two guys who couldn't possibly be more different as ballplayers have virtually the same WAR total at BBRef (though I tend to agree that his defensive figure overstates his awfulness).

and as an add to that, last night in the bottom of the 7th Pierre half swings and drops a ball that lands 20 feet past the dirt in the infield, right on the lf line and hustles it for a double, with the ball probably traveling 130 feet, total. In the top of the 8th, Jason Hayward hits a screaming line drive that one bounces the lf fence and must have left a dent where it hit. Result? Double. 2 very different ways to reach 2B on a hit.

BTW-Pierre once led the league 4 straight years in caught stealing-is that a record?

I can't find anyone who did it five straight times, but Rickey Henderson also led the league four straight years in CS (1980-83), as did Ben Chapman (1931-34). Lou Brock led in CS five of the seven years 1971-77; this is one of those records where you have to be pretty good at something to fail at it so often.

it's not hard to find park/era combinations that get him right at or over 500.

A non-collusion era would help. Yeah, he was pretty awful in 1986, but somebody would have given a job to a DH who just hit 35 HR. In 1987, the A's gave the job to a 41 YO Reggie Jackson who batted .220 and hit 15.

Kingman's "rat in a box" thing was in 1986, and it was a pretty big deal. Reggie is a terrible comparison. He was a lot better than Kingman in 1986, and anyway, the signing was mostly about a legend doing a farewell tour with the team where he had his glory days. It was more like the Mariners bringing back Griffey Jr. a couple of years back than a strictly baseball move. Still, perhaps even Reggie wouldn't have been deemed to be worth the trouble if, in addition to mediocre hitting and zero defensive value, he was also harassing female sportswriters and sending them rodents.

No way, no how, is Sheff making the Hof.
Not unless the writers dramatically change their stance on steroids.
He has the numbers...somewhat (He has 4 black ink points to the average HoF 27 and only 123 to 144 in grey ink, so he was rarely a truly top player.). His stats are good, but he wasn't the,or even one of, the elite, dominant players of his era.
He was also, at least according to dWar, one of the worst fielders in history-just a butcher with lifetime -195 Rfield.
More importantly, what narrative he has is bad. He's an admitted roider, which is pretty much a death sentence-well, unless your last name is Pettite. He also is carrying the baggage of his Milwaukee days, intentionally making errors to force a trade (I'm sure HW can fill in the details here). He's a baseball vagabond, never building a strong tie with fans in any one city. He's also played the race card consistently throughout his career and has made some pretty out there statements over the years, making unproven comments about some very popular people in baseball, i.e Torre. My perception is that the press in general views him as a bad seed and trouble. Fair or not, that's my reading and I think it will work against him come voting time.
Not to mention that he could get caught in the backlog. If Bonds, McG, Bags et.al are still lurking around, Sheff is just going to look like the 4th or worse dirty player in the bunch. He could go one and out...
I see big problems for him. Maybe way down the road. Most likely VC, if at all, would be my bet.

He has the numbers...somewhat (He has 4 black ink points to the average HoF 27 and only 123 to 144 in grey ink, so he was rarely a truly top player.)

Those standards are biased against modern players who compete in 14, 15, or 16 teams leagues vs the guys who played in 8. Take a guy like Duke Snider who has 28 black ink and see how many of those go away if he has to compete against the AL teams as well. In 1956 he led the NL in HR, BB, OBP, SLP, OPS, and OPS+. But he doesn't come close to Mantle and others in the AL. In 2003, Sheff hit .330/39/132. That line would win the triple crown in many years, but he played in a league with Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.

edit: Mel Ott. 50 points of black ink go to 0 if he has to beat out AL players as well.

Oh, I understand the bias. But I don't think the sport writers do. I think they look at things like how often a player led the league,how many top ten finishes the player had and use these as determinants in allotting how dominating a player was. They'll look at the numbers,point out players such as:
Bonds (69 black ink, 27 avg HoF, 289:144 grey ink)
Sosa (28:27,138:144)
McGwire (36:27, 110:144)
Bags (24:27, 157:144)
Thomas (21:277, 200:144)
Manny (21:27, 154:144)
Griffey (26:27, 162:144).

Matter of fact, the guy who is closest to Sheff offhand is Chipper at (4:;27 and 107:144). But Chipper played third, and at a minimum played it to a draw.
So compared to other sluggers of the "Steroid Era,Sheff wasn't an epic stand out.I also think that 4 points black ink will hurt. For a guy who made his living with the wood, most writers will have wanted him to lead the league in something, anything, more often. Throw in his awful defense, lots of baggage and an unfriendly narrative and it doesn't add up in his favor.
The steroid use admission is just the coup de grace.

Now I'm not saying he doesn't deserve consideration (or that he won't make it in the HoM, because I think he will), but in the real world, I think Sheff's best shot is a veterans committee some decades down the line.maybe one run by Jeter, ala Frank Frisch...

I just randomly picked Jetes because he's seen (At least by the media) as the figurehead player of the game. There was no intent to imply anything personal between him and Sheff.
He just feels like the sort of person MLB would end up being asked to chair a HoF vets committee. I can see it now. Jetes and Ripken running the crew.
But any player would do.
Maybe in twenty years, when the steroid era stats look so much more impressive,when the old players of Sheffield's generation get together to vote,one of them will start remembering how feared (Teh fear!) he was, the laser quick bat, those smooth hands and give him a nod. Heck-he may even be worth it.

Having said that, yeah, your Sheff line re Jeter is a prime example of the things that will keep Sheff from getting the writer's vote.

He has the numbers...somewhat (He has 4 black ink points to the average HoF 27 and only 123 to 144 in grey ink, so he was rarely a truly top player.). His stats are good, but he wasn't the,or even one of, the elite, dominant players of his era

Well, but here are the closest batters to Sheffield, career, centered on him in terms of PA and OPS+:

That's not even an outer circle of the HOF. Now, you're right in saying that Sheffield's spotty record as a fielder keeps him from being actually as great a player as Jones or Griffey or AROD; but a principle we sometimes invoke in HOF discussions is that nobody's ever been kept out of the Hall for a bad glove. (Or for being a jerk.)

And to some extent, those appalling defensive numbers are a factor of him being stretched by his managers always to cover the most difficult position he could get away with, not that different from Derek Jeter. Sheffield was a good athlete: fast runner, quick, excellent throwing arm. It's significant that he never really got relegated to DH till his late 30s. He'd have been a HOFer as a career 1B or even a career DH, for that matter; but he could play tougher positions, and he did until he was 38. He's far more Miguel Cabrera than Dick Stuart.

Sheffield was a superior hitter; he has a World Series ring and played on several other playoff clubs (so the "baggage" issue can't have been that bad on the field or in the clubhouse). Absent steroids, I can't imagine Hall voters passing on him.