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Thursday, October 19, 2006

Federal Reserve Is Trapped

The Federal Reserve Board is having its next meeting on October 24 - 25th. During the past two meetings the Federal Reserve has paused held short term interest rates steady. Will they pause hold rates steady once again?

Reasons Not to Lower Rates:

Inflation Worries. As "readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures."

Attract Inflow of Foreign Capitol. (Ensure the dollar does not tank)

Reasons Not to Raise Rates:

Recession Fears "The moderation in economic growth appears to be continuing"

Don't want to cause a meltdown in the housing market. As the housing market activity is already "cooling considerably"

The Federal Reserve Board is trapped. Captain Bernanke is trying to steer the U.S.S. Economy but in all directions (raising or lowering rates) there are icebergs. What will captain Bernanke do? He will just sit tight and hope the icebergs melt on their own accord. [Meanwhile quietly cursing Greenspan for directing the ship into an iceberg field.] Meanwhile, the passengers on the U.S.S. economy are busy partying and trashing the ship making it more vulnerable to an iceberg collision. [No, I'm not suggesting the U.S.S. Economy is going to sink andthat we we fall into a depression. What I'm suggesting is that the ship is very vulnerable is very very likely to be in a recession by 1Q or 2Q 2007.]

It is very likely that captain Bernanke will, once again, hold rates steady later this month. They are in a very tough position.

75 comments:

Pausing can be done once, and only once, until the next move is made, up or down. You cannot have another pause while you are currently paused. All you can have while currently paused is holding steady. So the next update from the fed will be a holding steady, not a pause.

For my money, I think Bernanke is doing a pretty good job. Interest rate hikes don't show up in the economy for several months, so I think Bernanke is just waiting to see how much the 17 straight rate hikes affected the economy.

I believe that they are getting behind the curve on inflation. Wages are going thru the roof and rents are going up fast. The world economy is booming, so these factors may not change, and the fed may need to raise rates. But they have waited too long before doing so. I don't believe they can fight inflation and save the housing market at the same time. Since the housing market is toast they need to focus on inflation.

I think Bernanke will lower rates-- just this once-- days ahead of the mid-term elections on November 7th, but the decision will come with a stern warning about possible future hikes needed to address inflation.

The news will, of course, get buried under an avalanche of campaign, terror, a bin Laden surfacing, Saddam's verdict, and a slew of celebrity snooze... er, news.

"Rates will be held steady until spring of 2007 and we can expect rate cuts to begin before summer. All of which certainly will not re-inflate the housing bubble but it'll likely prevent the RE market from a major crash."

I think that is optimist -- wouldn't the no-crash scenario relate only to an othwise unexpected surge in new-home buying? It certainly won't save the ARM-holders. And current inventory plus inventory in progress should take care of an awful lot of buyers now that speculators have left the game.

We already are at a point where significant transaction cancellation is occurring because home owners cannot onload the house they are in on order to buy the one the want. A relatively high-end neighborhood I'm scouting has noticeable drops in the prices of the newest spec homes? I think the reason why is that the builder knows his costs of construction are dropping rapidly and that competitiors will be building the same house 18 months from now for 20% less than today's asking price -- to get there you need only a 10% drop in costs of material and labor (Lotsa Polk country sub-contractors ready to compete for jobs) and approximately a 10% cut in the builder's gross profit. Done deal.

Given the 2008 election will be just around the corner next summer I think it is almost a sure bet interest-rates will be lowered. Once interest rates are cut I think we can expect the media to report about how this will have a positive affect the housing market which in turn will help sway those “bubble-sitting” into the market. The media will report on the increased sales activity and the psychology which currently keeps prospective home-owners away will likely change. Of course I don`t see the housing bubble re-inflating but I think we can expect to the RE market to improveg should the feds to cut rates.

YAWNNNNN ... Will someone please wake me up when Armagedon hits? I'm going to want to pick up some of these "pennies on the dollars" houses with all the money I've been able to put aside having made wise buying decisions in the past under all kinds of market conditions. Va_Investor? You ready for the buying spree?

I am a true bubble believer, but now with price drops not happening in my market( condos in Columbia, howard county), I am convinced I should by now in this temporary lull in a sea appreciation. I hate to give in, but if I don't buy now perhaps I will regret it next year.

Housing prices will continue to fall for the next 5 to 7 years. This is how housing bubbles work. Do a little research into the history of housing bubbles, and you will see for yourself.

The super housing bubble that has just popped, may even be as bad as Japan's supper housing bubble that popped in the early 90's, going down 15 years strait. I know it will be that way in Florida for sure, and maybe in California, Phoenix, and DC also.

Everything I read here over the past year seemed to indicated that the collapse was coming soon. It keeps getting pushed further and further back. It is going to happen in 2008 now, right? Well, if you keep saying something will happen for long enough, you just might appear to be correct eventually.

The Sun is going to go Supernova on us in the future, but I'm not going to panic about that now. However, mark my words: The Sun is going to turn into a Supernova and roast the Earth, boiling away the oceans. Earth will be a charred, dry nugget at that point, and all real estate will be worthless.

Lance said... “YAWNNNNN ... Will someone please wake me up when Armagedon hits? I'm going to want to pick up some of these "pennies on the dollars" houses with all the money I've been able to put aside having made wise buying decisions in the past under all kinds of market conditions. Va_Investor? You ready for the buying spree?”

Why wait? It’s “never a bad time to buy” Lance. Go out there and see if you can knock the inventory down a notch or two. Hell, start an “investment club” so you can pool the money and really make a dent in inventory.

Anonymous said... "Housing prices will continue to fall for the next 5 to 7 years. This is how housing bubbles work. Do a little research into the history of housing bubbles, and you will see for yourself."

So, can we start counting down that 5 to 7 years now? Or must we wait for housing prices to actually stop going up first? (My zip was up 10% YoY as of the last numbers in MRIS ...)

Howya doing? It is getting somewhat boring waiting for the sky to fall. I have my pockets stuffed with cash waiting to pick-up some bargains and flip'em to the bubbleheads. I don't really need anymore rentals with the way my rental income has increased of late.

i wanna go there cause i've not seen a wage increase in over a decade but i keep hearing "globalization is good for all of us" but i guess if you have a cushie government job where results don't matter.....

I'm in the same boat, although looking at SFH's in the howard co. area. Have you tried any of the auction sites? That's what I'm looking at right now.

It's very frustrating, because rents are rising and yet sales prices haven't fallen nearly enough. The strong jobs market and the building restrictions in Howard county are probably going to keep prices inflated. Meanwhile, in neighboring Montgomery County and Baltimore County, rents have dropped.

It seems that those areas that had alot of speculative activity will have downward pressure on rentals, and vice versa.

John Fontaine said:"lance, when you first came on this blog, didn't you say you were living in your first place? what a tangled web you weave."

John, sorry, but I think it's your memory that gotten itself into a tangled web. Nope, I never said that. Perhaps you are confusing "dream home" with "first place"? Check the archives you'll see I've extensively talked about prior purchases ... And that may be where you confusion comes from. I've several times talked about buying my first condo here in the DC area back in '96 ... (which incidentally wasn't my first purchase ... having bought a townhouse in another state back in the late 80s .. which I only lived in a few months before fate brought me here to Washington and I reverted to being a renter ... while I rented out that townhouse to others.) Btw, don't feel bad about jumping to conclusions. I've noticed that that is a common trait shared by bubbleheads. Actually, the whole bubblehead theory of armaghedon making house prices affordable to them is based on a series of bad assumptions ... rather than facts and more importantly "what has been in the past." good luck thought to you ... I hope you're starting to realize that you're going to need to depend on yourself to buy and not on some general calamity to hit the economy.

NOVA Fence Sitter reporting in. Just went to a bunch of open houses in Arlington. Very little traffic besides myself. One observation is at two open houses either one of the other shoppers (for lack of a better term) or the realtor mentioned they had another investment property they were waiting to put on the market. So I think there is still alot of inventory waiting in the wings. Question for the realtors out there (Lance)? When the realtor says their client is motivated is that a hint for me low ball and if so what's a good ball park for a low ball 10-15%? And if that is the case why don't they just lower the asking price in the first place?

Howya doing? It is getting somewhat boring waiting for the sky to fall."

I'm doing fine Va_Investor. I know what you mean about the "sky is gonna fall" thing starting to get a bit boring. Have you noticed how little time David spends on here nowadays? I suspect even he has realized that there's no bubble out there. I bet he's out there now looking for his dream house ...

I'd love to advise you on how to get a great deal on a home purchase, but I have 25yrs of very valuable experience that I only give away to friends and relatives (and my housekeeper and Lance, if he asks). I am sure some of the other renter's here can give you advice. The value is dubious, at best.

I am in a similar situation as you are right now (trying to find a place but also trying to avoid drastically overpaying). Negotiating anything is like playing poker: it's all about how much information you have and how effectively you use it. Whether 10-15% is lowball depends on how much information you have about the seller. Is your realtor making an active attempt to try and bleed more info out of the seller's agent? There are a lot of variables involved, and people's motivations/justifications for selling at any particular price point are not fixed in stone. If you have more information than the seller, you win.

Another thing.. I know it's pretty stylish on these blogs to trash realtors but, like any other profession there are good ones and there are BAD ones. I'm quickly finding out how important it really is to FIND ONE WHO UNDERSTANDS YOUR MARKET and has been through bad times (late 80's early 90's). I know it probably sounds cliched but you'll understand what I'm talking about when you start talking to people who have been around as opposed to the Sunny Jim personality-ethic types that tend to predominate in the industry.

Lots of good foreclosures out there people. But that would require some effort! Easier plan is just to pray to the crash God and wait for that deal to fall into your lap.

NOVA Fence Sitter is at least out there looking. Doing his homework, so he will recognize an opportunity when one presents itself. Most seem content to sit around misquoting Lance. Yeah, that will really get you ahead.

If I told you, I would have to kill you. Seriously, had I not been continually and roundly insulted by you guys, I might be inclined to help. I truly enjoy finding great deals for people. I don't want any more properties or I would be out there myself.

va_investor said... "Lots of good foreclosures out there people. But that would require some effort! Easier plan is just to pray to the crash God and wait for that deal to fall into your lap.

NOVA Fence Sitter is at least out there looking. Doing his homework, so he will recognize an opportunity when one presents itself. Most seem content to sit around misquoting Lance. Yeah, that will really get you ahead."

Misquote? Please, Lance is rather proud of his “no bad time to buy” stance, please don’t take that away from him.

Hey, I’m out there looking too. No need to be in any hurry though. Those foreclosure lists are still growing, DOM is getting longer, hell, it might be time to toss out a few low balls. Scary thing those low balls, you’d had better love the house, the seller just might accept.

va_investor said... “If I told you, I would have to kill you. Seriously, had I not been continually and roundly insulted by you guys, I might be inclined to help.”

Oh thine great and powerful real estate counselor, why hath thou forsaken us? Please forgive us of our trespasses; will ye smite us yet more? Verily, verily thine father Carlton Sheets has shewn us the way, but we hath forsaken his prophet! Have mercy on us!

Maybe Lance and VA_Investor could start their own blog and inform people how to buy foreclosures and other forms of property. I think plenty of folks from this blog would read it. And no, I'm not being sarcastic. I thought the purpose of this blog was supposed to be debating its premise which is "there is a Housing Bubble in many locales in the USA". It's kind of hard to follow some these comments/theories since we've had to compare data from regions, which then conflicts rising values for some cities, and even comparable increases at the zip code level. Data seems to support ideas on both sides to one extent or another. It seems that the existence of a bubble is being based on each individuals reason for purchasing and not necessarily on economic facts theories etc. It seems there are people on this blog who are simply angry about real estate because it went through its "sexy" phase and they weren't a part of it.

va_investor said... “originaldcer,Aren't you getting bored with the same debate on this board day after day? Your point about the purpose of this Blog is well taken, but would be very tedious.”

Ok va_, then let’s get back on topic.

If the Fed holds/pauses/does not increase rates, I don’t think it will have significant positive impact. Inventory is still growing, foreclosures are still rising, wages are still not keeping up, sales are still down, ARMs are still re-setting, and we probably have not felt the full effect of the last 13 of the 17 rate hikes in a row.

Whacha think va_? Would a pause slow down and/or help the tanking market?

I don't remeber insulting you or anyone else on the blog for that matter. Actually, I made my post just to create discussion. As a matter of policy I don't take advice on blogs (at least without confirming with other sources).

I suppose I am rather tired of some of the positions on the board. I think the bubblesphere roundup portion is capable of providing more insight. I also think that the blog has been more so a place where first time buyers can complain about increasing prices and their validity(which in many cases may be valid points). But then after reading some of the entries over the past few months I've learned that some of this really is about personal preference and opinions. While I don't necessarily agree with all the points that you and Lance have made I do agree with some of them. There are is existing affordable housing stock for those who are buying long term, are willing to negotiate with sellers, and remove some of the emotions attached with the homebuying process. I'll also say I've enjoyed this blog and I've learned a lot from people who have been there..from both sides of the argument. I for one would enjoy meeting you for coffee as my position has always been to get good information from successful people.

That was a very good post! I think you captured the essense of what is occuring on this post. And in my wildest dreams, I want to believe that the "first time buyers" who come here to JUSTIFIABLY complain, will come to understand that Va_Investor and I aren't criticizing the fact that they are complaining ... but rather trying to help them see the futulity of complaining ... especially to those of us who come here to help by way of our experience.

Lance said... “And in my wildest dreams, I want to believe that the "first time buyers" who come here to JUSTIFIABLY complain, will come to understand that Va_Investor and I aren't criticizing the fact that they are complaining ... but rather trying to help them see the futulity of complaining ... especially to those of us who come here to help by way of our experience.”

And here folks, a tidbit of that experience:

Lance said... whitetower said:"So, you are saying that a person who has a mortgage should ignore the total amount paid for his house?"

now you're getting it! yes, yes, and yes. It is the present value and cashflow characteristics of the stream of payments that you will be making that counts.July 25, 2006 11:09 PM

Anonymous "Everything I read here over the past year seemed to indicated that the collapse was coming soon. It keeps getting pushed further and further back. It is going to happen in 2008 now, right? Well, if you keep saying something will happen for long enough, you just might appear to be correct eventually."

It is happening, read the papers, watch the news. A bubble bursting doesn't mean that prices will go down to half their value for an asset class; it didn't with the stock market, though for a lot of dot coms it did. A 10% reduction or a 20% reduction over two years (starting in the third quarter of 2005 according to most), is significant, because so many people have much of their wealth in their homes. Australia had a boom and bust several years ago (2003ish), but they were fortunate to recover from the 20% fall to moderate increases though not to the prior levels due to booming commodity (which Australia exports a lot) prices.

The fed is illegal and needs to be abolished. Woodrow willson and other presidents agreed. JFK was assasinated over it after he attempted to reintroduce the U.S. Note to compete with the Fed Note. The Fed controls not only our interest rates but the interest that we, the american public, pay to the fed to circulate the dollar, and the control the flow of currency to have complete U.S. dictation of the U.S. dollar. If we have a problem with the dollar and interest rates it is no one's fault but those in control. the fed.