What I say unto you I say unto all, watch. Mark 13:37

March 16, 2011

Analysis: Israel’s shadow war against Iran

The seizure of the ‘Victoria’ cargo ship is just another
chapter in the larger covert war that Israel is waging against Iran.

Israel waged war against Iran on Tuesday. No Iranians were
present and not a single shot was fired, but make no mistake –
the seizure of the Victoria cargo ship
is part of Israel’s battle against Iran, one that is fought in the shadows and
sometimes in the most unlikely places.

When the commandos from the navy’s Flotilla 13 approached the
ship under cover of darkness late Monday night, they still did not know what to
expect. Only as they made their final approach toward the ship, some 320 km.
west of Israel, did Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu give his final approval to
board the vessel.

In such cases, the risk is huge, and for this reason the
Foreign Ministry was on standby with officials ready to contact Germany and
Liberia. A German company owns the ship, and it was flying a Liberian flag.

After contacting the captain of the ship by radio, the
commandos climbed aboard and, encountering no resistance, began a brief search
of the cargo. They went to the “suspicious” containers, the ones that were
loaded at the Syrian port of Latakia and were slated to be unloaded at the
Egyptian port of Alexandria, according to the cargo manifest.

The commandos found the containers fitted with heavy locks,
unusual for shipments of lentils and cotton. Behind a row of sacks, they found
what they were looking for: crates of mortar shells, and then the real prize –
the C-704 anti-ship missiles.

The seizure of the Victoria
was not impressive for the quantity of arms found – the
Francop cargo ship captured by Israel in
late 2009 was carrying 10 times more weaponry – but for the quality.

The C-704 is an anti-ship missile made in China and used by
Iran, which calls it the Nasr. Like surface-to-air missiles, the C-704 is the
type of weapon that Israel fears could shift the balance of power in the region
and undermine its operational freedom.

But while the discovery is impressive and was the result of
major intelligence and operational efforts, it is just another chapter in the
larger covert war that Israel is waging against Iran and its terror proxies
throughout the Middle East, and joins a long list of similar special operations
that have taken place in recent years.

The battle against Iranian arms shipments to Syria, Hezbollah
and Hamas is extremely complicated and involves unprecedented coordination
between Israel and its allies, primarily the United States.

Israel boards dozens of ships annually, and hundreds more are
questioned by radio at sea. In the case of the Victoria, Israel had intelligence
that the ship might be carrying weaponry, but there is never certainty until the
ship is boarded and the weapons are found. One senior official described the
mood in the navy command center as being so tense that a knife could have cut
through the air.

For Iran and Hamas, the seizure of the
Victoria is a major blow. But it will
not stop Iran from trying other ways to get advanced weaponry to its proxies,
such as Hamas and Hezbollah. In many cases, Iran has succeeded.

In 2009, during Operation Cast Lead, Hamas did not have
rockets that could hit Tel Aviv. Today it does.

The route that the Victoria
took was of particular interest for the navy. In the past, a number of ships
were tracked as they sailed through the Red Sea and unloaded weaponry in Sudan
or Eritrea, which made its way by land up to the Egyptian-Gaza border. In this
case, the ship was loaded in Syria, then sailed north to Turkey and then back
south again to Egypt.

This route led intelligence officials in Israel to believe
that the stopover at the Turkish port of Mersin was a ploy to draw attention
away from the ship.

The decision to transfer the weaponry directly to Egypt could
mean that Iran is encountering difficulty in the traditional land route through
Egypt. This could have to do with Israeli efforts to stop the shipments, but the
Egyptians are also believed to be making a greater effort to stop arms convoys
from crossing into the country from its southern border with Sudan. A few days
ago, the Egyptian military attacked such a convoy with artillery shells,
preventing it from entering the country. †