UNH experts: Republicans lost control of election narrative

Friday

Nov 9, 2012 at 3:15 AMNov 9, 2012 at 8:13 AM

By Jim Haddadinjhaddadin@fosters.com

DURHAM — A failure to field moderate candidates and steer the election narrative away from the New Hampshire House hurt Republicans in this week’s election, in the eyes of two University of New Hampshire political analysts.

Democrats took decisive gains in New Hampshire in Tuesday’s contest, wresting back control of the House, and pulling nearly even in the state Senate.

Manchester attorney Ovide Lamontagne also fell short in his bid to win back the governor’s seat for the Republican party, following eight years under the control of Gov. John Lynch, a moderate Democrat.

During a panel discussion at UNH Thursday evening, political science professors Dante Scala and Andy Smith weighed in on the factors that influenced the outcome of Tuesday’s vote.

Although Lamontagne ran for governor once before, and was also a U.S. Senate candidate in 2010, both he and opponent Maggie Hassan were largely unknown statewide, Smith said. Early on, Lamontagne missed the opportunity to define himself for voters, Smith said, leaving him vulnerable.

“Lamontagne really missed an opportunity to define his opponent, and he was consequently defined, so he fought that race on social issues, which he really didn’t want to talk about,” said Smith, the director of UNH’s Survey Center.

Scala said Lamontagne was saddled with a plethora of issues that anger Democrats and make them anxious in the final two months of the campaign.

“What was surprising to me, I guess, was the unanimity of New Hampshire Republican elites around Lamontagne, who they had to know was going to be a difficult sell to voters in New Hampshire,” he said.

Smith agreed, suggesting that Republicans had few alternatives among the field of potential candidates that surfaced. Lamontagne’s major primary opponent, Litchfield’s Kevin Smith, was “kind of where Ovide Lamontagne was in 1996,” Smith said, explaining Smith came off as a “young brash conservative.”

Scala suggested that the experience in 2010 of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bill Binnie might have chilled the motivation of other moderate Republicans to plunge into the gubernatorial race this year.

“I think Republicans were in a tough spot,” Smith said.

Conversely, Scala said it was interesting that neither Mitt Romney nor John McCain — both thought to be closer to the center than the right-wing of the Republican party — managed to prevail in the Granite State during their presidential bids.

“Here in New Hampshire, what’s striking to me is that I think for the second time in a row, Republicans nominate someone who’s about as friendly to a New Hampshire Republican mindset as you could imagine,” Scala said.

Discussing the victories in the New Hampshire House, Smith said the state’s electoral make up is such that Democrats usually stand to gain a majority when they are polling above 53.5 percent statewide in a general election.

Smith said it was unsurprising that a large number of House seats fell to Democrats this week, given Hassan’s ability to capture about 55 percent of the overall vote.

Scala said House Speaker Bill O’Brien, who became the focus of Democratic ire during the campaign, is an interesting figure in statewide politics because he is, perhaps, the only House speaker in New Hampshire history to become a broad target for the opposing party.

“Usually speakers are very much kind of in the background and so forth, and with O’Brien, he really brought this kind of Massachusetts speakership mentality to the New Hampshire Legislature,” Scala said, “and I wonder, given all the volatility … If you’re O’Brien, do you regret it? Do you regret any of it?”