Food security is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. In Nigeria, the most populous country in the region, the rate of food production lags behind the rate of population growth, resulting in high incidences of hunger, with more than half the population living below the poverty line. In response to this, the Nigerian government has introduced a number of agricultural initiatives designed to increase food production and move the country closer to self-sufficiency. The objective of this paper is to determine the extent to which these initiatives have resulted in sustainable improvements in productivity. This is done through the development of a simple analytical framework that deconstructs increases in production into yield increases and area expansion. Rice and cassava are used as case studies. The paper demonstrates that three key government initiatives have had little impact on yields, with increases in production driven largely by area increases, most likely at the expense of forested areas and the ecosystem services they provide. The findings suggest that Nigeria has not achieved sustainable intensification of its agriculture for the two case study crops of cassava and rice. Moreover, some of the government initiatives assessed here have coincided with periods of falling yield.

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