A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, November 05, 2015

2 Yellow Circles November in the Tropics. Fall Color on the NHC Website. Careful what you wish for...

May I add never follow a preacher man down to the water in a ballerina tutu ... trust me. But there is most likely something down there in the warm water of the Caribbean. Actually there are two things to watch in the tropics this morning.

It's November in the tropics that usually means one of a few things.

a) Nothing happening
b) Tropics flirt but aren't putting out.
c) Caribbean is on watch for quirky action
d) Cold front picks up almost anything that forms but not always.

I wouldn't get all blown away and go cray cray just yet. NHC did go with 2 circles of areas to watch with 20% and 10% given... that is a collective but unscientific 30% chance of something forming.

Morning visible coming in slowly like the fog...

Foggy in the Carolinas today.

Hot in Miami.

Super duper hot.

Makes me wonder how hot the water temps are...

You can see both players here.

GOM Yucatan Twist and Cold Front.

My pal has been talking on this for days.

Check him out you'll see I'm not just being kind.

Find a surfer and you'll find someone who watches...

...the waves and the sky and the wind.

http://dabuh.com/

What does the NHC say?

A lot of ifs ...ands... maybes... and THERE IS A COLD FRONT!

They are watching it.

Is there more to the story?

Yes and no.

The heat is there if it stays where the water is hot still.

If it misses the front and lingers as you know...

...cold fronts linger once they make it that far south.

If it forms faster... small window for that... it chugs off to the NE.

Something interesting is that off the coast of Carolina ....

....there has been persistent rain for days now.

Rain in the Caribbean.

Rain off the coast of the Carolinas.

Cold front coming like a bad guy to steal the tropical girl.

Snow in the West. Color in the Carib.

Let's go wider with that view...

Oddly Africa keeps shooting off waves....

One reason we had a season this year is due to the quality of those waves.

Maybe next year if El Nino isn't here but the waves are...

But for now its still THIS hurricane season.

2015!

We don't stop watching for snow on March 15th do we?

Well most crazy snow people don't stop...

That's how we weather people are...

That's how we roll..... .... ;)

www.crownweather.com has been watching.

We all have.

Now the NHC is ...

...and yet so far no floater up.

But we are on top of it because that's what we do...

Tropical meteorologists follow the tropics...

...along with everything that affects the tropics.

So many questions.

Check back later we may have some answers.

Don't need the NHC to see there's something going on.

Don't need the NHC to see front is there....

I think the big question here is this...

Will something really form?

If so when.. I do believe the timing has been off on modeling.

If it forms does it stay down there or zoom NE?

If anything gets into the GOM it will catch the front and ...

.... does that make it born to be leaving?

Truth is either way the Gulf Coast is going to get another round of stormy weather.

Flooding rains possible as well as high winds.

Whether it gets a name or not...they will get the weather.

As for PR and the Islands...

Another chance at rain to break the drought.

What will Florida get?

Note how this year we have had one drought buster after another.

South Carolina had record rain.

Texas has had record rain.

Even PR got rain as storms did not develop...

...had they developed they'd have gone N towards Florida.

Where I go first on Facebook ;)

So bottom line here is we may get some Home Grown Brew..

Or Caribbean cruiser that tastes the rum and then runs off with the Cold Front.