In the aftermath of Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa, Ashton Gate regulars are posing the question: “Can Bristol City stay up?”

While the Robins were going down at Villa Park, results elsewhere rendered their situation still more precarious. Blackburn’s 1-0 win over Derby County moved the Lancashire club – currently third from bottom of the table – level with City on points.

City owe their position four places off the foot of the table to a superior goal difference, but this is as close as Lee Johnson’s team has been to the Championship relegation zone all season and the pressure is now well and truly on.

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The campaign has entered its decisive final phase and the fate of City and all those other clubs currently engaged in promotion or relegation situations, will be determined one way or another over the course of the next two months.

General View outside the new Lansdown Stand at Ashton Gate (Image: Rogan Thomson/JMP)

Certainly, City supporters will have reached that stage where they feel the need to analyse the remaining fixtures in an attempt to assess just how many points might be required to retain Championship status.

Of course, the figure varies from season to season; Charlton Athletic and Portsmouth finished third from bottom and were relegated with 40 points in 2015/16 and 2011/12 respectively, while Leicester slipped through the trapdoor into League One with 52 points in 2008, two fewer than the tally mustered by the Peterborough side that suffered relegation in 2012/13.

One thing is beyond debate – Rotherham are so far adrift at the foot of the table, that they are all but down. This potentially leaves six teams contesting a mini-league in the knowledge that the bottom two will slip into the third tier.

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Realistically, City are engaged in a straight fight with Wigan, Blackburn, Wolves, Burton and Nottingham Forest between now and May 7. And given the current points tally of those sides, it seems reasonable to assume that the Robins might need to win half of their remaining games to be sure of retaining their Championship status.

Johnson’s side has 33 points from 34 games, leaving 36 still to play for, starting with Saturday’s potentially seminal contest against fellow strugglers Burton Albion at Ashton Gate. Six of those games are at home, six away.

Having garnered a meagre nine points from their last 19 games, the Robins will undoubtedly have to find a dramatic improvement in terms of results if they are to survive. Construct a form table over the course of those 19 games and only Rotherham boast a worse record.

In any assessment of City’s prospects, the eye is drawn instantly to those proverbial six-pointers, fixtures against fellow strugglers that will, in all likelihood, determine which teams survive and which take the drop.

City’s young head coach will correctly argue that their fate is in their own hands; the Robins still have to play Burton, Wigan, Wolves and Blackburn, and favourable outcomes to those key contests will go a long way towards materially improving their situation.

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Norwich, Huddersfield, QPR, Barnsley and Birmingham are still to visit Ashton Gate and City’s home form during the run in will prove crucial. Potentially tricky fixtures at Brentford, Preston, and Brighton offer little prospect of a healthy return for a side that has claimed just two points on the road since the end of October.

Wigan, Blackburn and Burton are all showing signs of improvement and it is already apparent that City will have to dig themselves out of trouble rather than rely on others. Six wins from their final 12 games will be enough, while five or even four might just suffice.

Points tallies for teams finishing third from bottom of the Championship since 2007.