I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

It helps that there were three teams, leaving two to deal with the penalty next time and not just one.

I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

Another thing I noticed with the next episode preview, unless there was editing, was that Dave hurt his leg, he just came right out and said, "I ruptured my Achilles tendon." Who says that without seeing a doctor? I think they are really trying to get some sympathy for the Express Pass.

What difference did it make? If David and Connor finished 2nd of the original group of 5, the partnership agreement was for the winners of leg 1(John and Jessica) weere supposed to give it to them anyway).

I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

Let's look at the mathematics of this. There are 400 sandcastles at the start and 11 clues; the first team has a 2.75% chance each try. It appeared to be slow going and I thought the average time per sandcastle was running at about 3 minutes. That means it would take on average 54 minutes of attempts to find a clue. For each succeeding team, the odds went down until for the final 3 teams there are 3 sandcastles left, for a probability of 0.825% for each try. That means is would take on average 3.0 hours for them to find a clue. They appeared to have gone beyond that, so the statistics of the situation (which had worked for all prior teams) did not appear to be working out for the last 3 teams. Their election of taking the 4 hour penalty together meant that one team would almost certainly be eliminated and the other two would be fighting against elimination at the end of leg 2.

I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

Let's look at the mathematics of this. There are 400 sandcastles at the start and 10 clues; the first team has a 2.5% chance each try. It appeared to be slow going and I thought the average time per sandcastle was running at about 3 minutes. That means it would take on average 1 hour of attempts to find a clue. For each succeeding team, the odds went down until for the final 3 teams there are 3 sandcastles left, for a probability of 0.75% for each try. That means is would take 3.3 hours for them to find a clue. They appeared to have gone beyond that, so the statistics of the situation (which had worked for all prior teams) did not appear to be working out for the last 3 teams. Their election of taking the 4 hour penalty together meant that one team would almost certainly be eliminated and the other two would be fighting against elimination at the end of leg 2.

Wasn't there 11 clues at the start? If there were only 10 clues, somebody was guaranteed not to get one and thus forced to take a penalty. Going with that new addition, the first team had a 2.75% chance of getting the clue at each sandcastle. Going with the assumption that each sandcastle would take on average 3 minutes to knock down and rebuild, there would be a 55% chance that a team would get it within the first hour of searching. Obviously this will decrease as teams find clues, but at the same time, I think from watching it, no teams rebuilt the last sandcastle they knocked over (the one with the clue), so going with that assumption...

10 teams: 50.12% chance within one hour9 teams: 45.22% chance within one hour8 teams: 40.3% chance within one hour7 teams: 35.35% chance within one hour6 teams: 30.38% chance within one hour5 teams: 25.38% chance within one hour4 teams: 20.36% chance within one hour3 teams: 15.31% chance within one hour

This is based also on another assumption that the teams are doing it independently of one another (very poor statistical assumption but is basic enough to see the effects of finding the clues are). Thus, if Katie, Jennifer and Daniel had continued with the Roadblock, they would have taken about 6 and a half hours to complete (with all the assumptions used)!

However, going with the assumption that the Roadblockers DID rebuild the last sandcastle, the effects of chance change significantly:

10 teams: 50% chance within one hour9 teams: 45% chance within one hour8 teams: 40% chance within one hour7 teams: 35% chance within one hour6 teams: 30% chance within one hour5 teams: 25% chance within one hour4 teams: 20% chance within one hour3 teams: 15% chance within one hour

Although insignificant in some respect, if the last sandcastle was to be built back up again, the chances of find the sandcastle would be reduced. Once again, these calculations are done with the assumption that all the teams performances are independent of each other. Thus, the time taken for the three teams to find a clue at 3 teams left would be slightly greater at 6 hours 40 minutes.

However, these models are really simplistic, ignoring a number of factors including:

How quickly teams are constructing the sandcastles

Fatigue

How many sandcastles teams know have been searched

Teams potentially "missing" the clue (remember how Dave said he might have missed a clue for not digging deep enough?)

How many sandcastles other teams deconstruct before finding a clue

There are other factors but I think these could be considered as the most important. At the end of the day, looking over the calculations here would suggest that taking the penalty would have been a good decision, however, incorporating the factors affecting how long the teams take, it may not have been such a wise decision after all. I guess time will tell...

I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

Let's look at the mathematics of this. There are 400 sandcastles at the start and 10 clues; the first team has a 2.5% chance each try. It appeared to be slow going and I thought the average time per sandcastle was running at about 3 minutes. That means it would take on average 1 hour of attempts to find a clue. For each succeeding team, the odds went down until for the final 3 teams there are 3 sandcastles left, for a probability of 0.75% for each try. That means is would take 3.3 hours for them to find a clue. They appeared to have gone beyond that, so the statistics of the situation (which had worked for all prior teams) did not appear to be working out for the last 3 teams. Their election of taking the 4 hour penalty together meant that one team would almost certainly be eliminated and the other two would be fighting against elimination at the end of leg 2.

Wasn't there 11 clues at the start? If there were only 10 clues, somebody was guaranteed not to get one and thus forced to take a penalty. Going with that new addition, the first team had a 2.75% chance of getting the clue at each sandcastle. Going with the assumption that each sandcastle would take on average 3 minutes to knock down and rebuild, there would be a 55% chance that a team would get it within the first hour of searching. Obviously this will decrease as teams find clues, but at the same time, I think from watching it, no teams rebuilt the last sandcastle they knocked over (the one with the clue), so going with that assumption...

10 teams: 50.12% chance within one hour9 teams: 45.22% chance within one hour8 teams: 40.3% chance within one hour7 teams: 35.35% chance within one hour6 teams: 30.38% chance within one hour5 teams: 25.38% chance within one hour4 teams: 20.36% chance within one hour3 teams: 15.31% chance within one hour

This is based also on another assumption that the teams are doing it independently of one another (very poor statistical assumption but is basic enough to see the effects of finding the clues are). Thus, if Katie, Jennifer and Daniel had continued with the Roadblock, they would have taken about 6 and a half hours to complete (with all the assumptions used)!

However, going with the assumption that the Roadblockers DID rebuild the last sandcastle, the effects of chance change significantly:

10 teams: 50% chance within one hour9 teams: 45% chance within one hour8 teams: 40% chance within one hour7 teams: 35% chance within one hour6 teams: 30% chance within one hour5 teams: 25% chance within one hour4 teams: 20% chance within one hour3 teams: 15% chance within one hour

Although insignificant in some respect, if the last sandcastle was to be built back up again, the chances of find the sandcastle would be reduced. Once again, these calculations are done with the assumption that all the teams performances are independent of each other. Thus, the time taken for the three teams to find a clue at 3 teams left would be slightly greater at 6 hours 40 minutes.

However, these models are really simplistic, ignoring a number of factors including:

How quickly teams are constructing the sandcastles

Fatigue

How many sandcastles teams know have been searched

Teams potentially "missing" the clue (remember how Dave said he might have missed a clue for not digging deep enough?)

How many sandcastles other teams deconstruct before finding a clue

There are other factors but I think these could be considered as the most important. At the end of the day, looking over the calculations here would suggest that taking the penalty would have been a good decision, however, incorporating the factors affecting how long the teams take, it may not have been such a wise decision after all. I guess time will tell...

Mr. Deer Shank,

I discovered my error about 11 initial clues vs. the 10 I erroneously used (and am correcting it). Your mathematics are not significantly different than mine. Your point about the several other factors that influenced the actual situation are all valid. However, we have no knowledge of the specific impact of each one or even the aggregate of them. So we are left with just the mathematics, which does tell us some very interesting things about why it was taking the last 3 teams so long.

I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

Let's look at the mathematics of this. There are 400 sandcastles at the start and 10 clues; the first team has a 2.5% chance each try. It appeared to be slow going and I thought the average time per sandcastle was running at about 3 minutes. That means it would take on average 1 hour of attempts to find a clue. For each succeeding team, the odds went down until for the final 3 teams there are 3 sandcastles left, for a probability of 0.75% for each try. That means is would take 3.3 hours for them to find a clue. They appeared to have gone beyond that, so the statistics of the situation (which had worked for all prior teams) did not appear to be working out for the last 3 teams. Their election of taking the 4 hour penalty together meant that one team would almost certainly be eliminated and the other two would be fighting against elimination at the end of leg 2.

I also think it was smart of them to take the penalty. I meant they could just stay there and depended on their luck but were you really gonna do that after 4 hours of digging, searching, building, repeating, in almost 100 degrees. It was still leg 1 and you knew you have 11 legs coming and had to stay fit.

I think what's interesting in this RB is that they're gonna have to re-build the Sandcastles. Back in Tar 6 and Tar 15, in the hay RB, they didn't have to roll the hay back, they just roll it open and search, and if no clue in it, repeat. So teams coming behind were spared some works and had the chance to catch up. or in Tar 18 in the tea-tasting RB, once you drank a cup,if wrong, that cup would not be re-filled again.

this RB, either they arrived first or last, they all started from zero. of course teams arriving behind may notice which sandcastle had been torn down and which hadn't, but i think it was still hard to differ, especially with 100 degrees up on your head. almost everything depended on their luck.

It was fair actually but I did pity the racers. Why would they just put 11 clues instead of like 20? The more clue found, the more miserable teams became.

I think what's interesting in this RB is that they're gonna have to re-build the Sandcastles. Back in Tar 6 and Tar 15, in the hay RB, they didn't have to roll the hay back, they just roll it open and search, and if no clue in it, repeat. So teams coming behind were spared some works and had the chance to catch up. or in Tar 18 in the tea-tasting RB, once you drank a cup,if wrong, that cup would not be re-filled again.

Umm.. I think it's TOO CRUEL to be implemented... Actually, making one hay bale (from a source I read) takes more than 1 day in order to dry the hay. Also, I think that they used tractor to make it, not by bare hands...

I think what's interesting in this RB is that they're gonna have to re-build the Sandcastles. Back in Tar 6 and Tar 15, in the hay RB, they didn't have to roll the hay back, they just roll it open and search, and if no clue in it, repeat. So teams coming behind were spared some works and had the chance to catch up. or in Tar 18 in the tea-tasting RB, once you drank a cup,if wrong, that cup would not be re-filled again.

Umm.. I think it's TOO CRUEL to be implemented... Actually, making one hay bale (from a source I read) takes more than 1 day in order to dry the hay. Also, I think that they used tractor to make it, not by bare hands...

aw lol sorry then I guess I had no idea. but still, the hay bale RB spared some works on teams arriving behind. in the sandcastle RB, you need to have keen eyes to differ which has been torn down and which hasn't. the amount of hay bales in tar 6 was only 200 something, and in tar 15 was 100 something. amount of clues hidden inside were more than the amount of remaining teams.

I'm just going to express again that I hate luck tasks, especially with Bates and Anthony checking in 2nd after like searching 2 sandcastles. I don't blame the task for Matt and Daniel's elimination, since they were too arrogant with the boat task.

I'm shocked they all took the penalty. If I was racing, I would have not agreed to take the penalty hoping that I have kept good track at which sandcastles I knocked down, but then again, I wasn't out there for 3 hours either.

Ain't nobody got time for a 4-hour penalty when almost half of the sandcastles are already knocked down. Even if you didn't take the penalty, it will still take less time to knock down and rebuild them. Forget the pact, I'm worrying about myself.

jiajia12

I come to a conclusion that Max&Katie and the Blondes survives because of HoO or the black twins can't swim .again this is not racist just because I call them black, its just easier for me to identity them without messing up their names.

I come to a conclusion that Max&Katie and the Blondes survives because of HoO or the black twins can't swim .again this is not racist just because I call them black, its just easier for me to identity them without messing up their names.

Idries & Jamil can barely swim decently judging from their big splash in the va'a coming undone. If you notice, Idries took a while to get back up to surface (WITH LIFEVESTS) and then he lost his glasses. So when that scuba task comes up, one of them will screw things up.

Rewatching the premiere's "next time on" on DVR, I can see trivial hints:

• During the stingray scene, you can see a couple boxes on the right side which might have to do with the scuba. "Scuba dive into the Pacific Ocean and retrieve a treasure chest surrounded by many sea creatures." Teams will have to do something with an item inside the box for sure.• The Pit Stop location is at a small point (maybe Motu Ahuna) where there are some shrubs and are able to view two nearby islands perfectly. Okay, if teams are running to the Pit Stop via land, then it's most likely a land task preceding the Pit Stop since we already have boat transportation checked off.