Final 28 state and national exit polls(forced to match recorded vote)
– Clinton won by 48.2-46.2%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
– Trump won Independents by just 46-42% ???
– Trump won late deciders from Oct.1 by 50-40% ***

Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes. She won California by 4.27 million, New York by 1.7 million and Illinois by 945,000 votes – a total of 6.9 million. Her margins in these states were implausible. Trump won the other 48 states by 4.1 million.

The 28 unadjusted state exit polls are implausible. Trump won the True Vote. He won Independents by 7.7% over Clinton. Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

In the primaries (25 exit and 2 entrance polls) Bernie Sanders had 65% of Independents, but just 45.3% of the total vote.

The 42I-28D-28R Gallup Party-ID survey equates to 60I-40D in the primaries. Using this split for the 27 adjusted exit polls, Clinton needed 83.4% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. The adjusted polls indicate that Sanders had 64.6% of Independents.

If Sanders had 37% of Democrats, he would have had a total 53.6% share.

Exit Poll States

Gallup Pct

Sanders

Clinton

IND

60.0%

64.6%

35.4%

Dem

40.0%

37.0%

63.0%

Est. True Vote

100.0%

53.6%

46.4%

Recorded

45.3%

54.7%

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have
5%(implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.
10%(conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.
20%(plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.
30%(optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

Sanders had 52% of Independents in the 11 RED states. Clinton needed an IMPLAUSIBLE 97% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.

Sanders had an estimated 65% of Independents in the 40 BLUE/OTHER states. If he had 30% of Democrats, he would have had 51%.

This analysis seeks to determine an approximate True Vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries.

Clinton led the average of the adjusted exit polls (which were forced to match the recorded vote) by 56.4-43.6%. But there has been a significant increase in Independents tn National Party-ID statistics since 2014.

In the exit polled primaries, Sanders had a 51.3% True Vote and a 43.6% Recorded Vote.

The calculation of the True Vote differs from the Recorded Vote (adjusted Exit poll) in just one aspect: Independent and Democratic weights are based on the actual 2016 Party-ID mix in which independents comprise 57.3% and Democrats just 42.7% of the two-party mix. Sanders vote shares are unchanged.

In other words the True Vote assumes that no voters were disenfranchised and/or removed from the rolls.

The 2016 Party-ID mix for each state is estimated by applying the equivalent proportional change from the 2014 National Party-ID to the 2016 National Party ID.

Let’s compare the the 2016 Party-ID effect on vote shares to the adjusted exit poll Party-ID weights in three primaries: NY, MA, WI.

Candidate vote shares are held constant. The only difference between the adjusted exit poll (which was forced to match the recorded vote) and the True Vote is the Party-ID mix. Sanders does significantly better when the 2016 Party-ID percentages are used.