The Associated Press ran this story yesterday, pointing out that while our weather forecasting skills are getting better, experts are struggling to understand when the optimal time is for sharing information about severe weather. Specifically,

Forecasters at the federal Storm Prediction Center see a high chance of severe storms, with possible killer tornadoes, next Tuesday in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Federal Emergency Management Agency chief Craig Fugate said the early heads-up helps disaster officials prepare, but what about you: Do you really need to worry - or even know about it - this far in advance?

Apparently, having too much warning time can hinder the ability of citizens to respond. I get it; our lives are busy. I can appreciate the fact there's a good chance of tornadoes three days from now. But for many people with kids and hectic schedules, there's a lot of baseball games, soccer practices and science projects that must be completed between now and then.

For some of us (and I include myself in this category), we actually plan our schedules and activities based upon the risk of severe weather. For me, I suspect that is the result of being raised on a farm and watching the weather as as result.

What's interesting is that experts "found in a study published in 2011 that if people had an hour's notice of a tornado's arrival, many would try to flee, putting them in the path of danger. With 15 minutes' notice, they would seek shelter."

I don't have any data as to how many people are taking advantage of it. The Texas Comptroller will likely have data in the coming weeks to that effect. Some people are complaining that the holiday only helps those who can afford to spend money on disaster supplies and does nothing to help those who cannot.

That criticism is well founded in its initial assumption. I discuss the efficacy of emergency preparedness sales tax holidays in Pivot Points:

Researchers at The Tax Foundation take issue with [the efficacy of preparedness sales tax holidays]. Studying the various state tax holidays across the country, the organization concluded such holidays do not lead to people buying more preparedness items. It contends consumers simply wait to buy things they were already planning to purchase during tax free weekends. Further, research indicates many retailers raise prices during sales tax holidays, reducing the actual benefit consumers expect to receive during sales tax-free shopping.

The Foundation singled out Virginia’s hurricane preparedness sales tax holiday for further analysis. Virginia exempts a number of helpful items during its sales tax holiday, such as cell phone chargers and duct tape. Yet other similar items, such as laptop chargers and electrical tape are not exempted. The Foundation goes on to point out that if these items are such good preparedness purchases, shouldn’t they be exempt year round? In the end, the organization concludes sales tax holidays are less about good preparedness and more about making those politicians who support sales tax holidays look good.

Assuming The Tax Foundation's analysis is correct, it's important to note that the Texas sales tax holiday - along with the media coverage and marketing efforts of vendors to promote it - has the effect of encouraging people to make preparedness a priority. The free media and marketing promoting that has been generated by this holiday has a significant monetary value that preparedness advocacy groups could not reasonably spend on their own.

Complain about the efficacy of the tax holiday to stimulate purchases of items on the approved list all you want, but we would not be promoting preparedness to this extent if the holiday didn't exist.

REI Jumps The Shark And Gets On Board With Preparedness

REI - known for its granola outlook on life - is doing its part here in Central Texas to create a culture of preparedness. They are now offering free courses called "Prepare for the Unexpected: Urban Emergency Preparedness." Last year, I took a number of their classes (they do an excellent job, by the way) and suggested they consider doing one on how to use the gear in their store in the event of an emergency at home. I don't know if my comment helped drive the initiative to start the class, but they are doing these fairly regularly now. I'm attending the next one in June and looking forward to it.

From Ebola to the End Times, it’s an endless litany detailing a terrible future. They dwell on it. And they resign themselves to it for one reason, because it’s easy, because that terrible future doesn’t ask anything of them today.

A guy I grew up with - his name is Ron - sent me this link with a good question I suspect many ponder when they think about the preparedness movement: Can a prepper also be an optimist or are the two mutually exclusive?

I can easily see why someone would ask that question. After all, preppers by definition spend time and money preparing themselves not for exciting innovations, exotic vacations, or challenging physical fitness competitions. Instead, they are preparing for bad things to happen which may cause death, property damage and significant financial hardship.

So if you're committed to preparing for death, property damage and significant financial hardship, isn't your world view necessarily pessimistic?

Yes and no.

Take your typical hard core prepper. He or she has plenty of guns, storable food, some gold and silver coins, and an assortment of consumables stored in bulk. They have at least one four wheel drive vehicle and make it a habit to consume "doom porn" news of financial meltdowns, severe weather reports, predictions about a rash of upcoming earthquakes, and geopolitical squabbles. They believe they need to be ready to be off grid for a period of time due to the possibility of one of a number of perils that could disrupt the grid for a length of time.

This sounds rather dystopian. But implied in their planning processes - perhaps subconsciously - is that there's something further down the timeline worth living for. For example, most preppers I know are not preparing to survive a nuclear war. While it's quite possible to do (albeit somewhat expensive), many preppers I know say "there's no coming back from that...so I am not preparing for that contingency."

What that tells me is that in the prepper's mind, the prepper believes that there must be some remaining time in the future - after a disaster - during which life will be enjoyable. In a sense, preppers are simply increasing the odds that their life will be enjoyable long term by preparing for a period of hard times at some point in the future.

Preparedness smooths out some of the downside risks so that future years can be spent enjoying life rather than dealing with setbacks caused by a job loss, historic flooding like we're seeing in Houston at the moment, a period of economic malaise, or just the fear of any of those events happening. As our Mormon friends like to say, "if ye are prepared, ye shall not fear."

Are some preppers pessimistic? Absolutely. So are a lot of non-preppers. Yet what I find is that preppers are more willing to entertain the notion that:

things are not always as they seem, and

there are the ways to hedge against that uncertainty.

Back to the link I shared at the beginning of this post - consider this quote from it:

Everything is a worst case scenario with these people.

From Ebola to the End Times, it’s an endless litany detailing a terrible future. They dwell on it. And they resign themselves to it for one reason, because it’s easy, because that terrible future doesn’t ask anything of them today.

When is the last time you heard one of these people speak of Tomorrowland? That bright shining optimistic future, that better world, the one we ourselves can create now if we only had the will and determination?

Aside from the political overtones in the text, let's address these comments assuming they were aimed at the preparedness community.

"Everything is a worst case scenario with these people."

We do tend to think of the worst case scenario (WCS) - I do it regularly - in large part to help me understand the universe of possible outcomes from a particular disaster. It doesn't mean I think the worst case scenario will happen, but if I can have some plan for the worst case scenario, then I can manage less severe scenarios as well. Thinking WCS doesn't make you a pessimist - it only means you are willing to entertain the full spectrum of the possible in an effort to deal with it and hedge against the risk.

From Ebola to the End Times, it’s an endless litany detailing a terrible future. They dwell on it.

Our parents and grandparents dwelled on the Cold War. Polio. The Great Depression. Just like Ebola, these things were real. But they also learned that civilization matures, advances, and moves forward. The notion that modern preppers are breaking ground in their worrying about possible disasters is misguided and inaccurate.

And they resign themselves to it for one reason, because it’s easy, because that terrible future doesn’t ask anything of them today.

What's easy about contemplating hard times? And if preppers are taking action because of "that terrible future," then it's clear that they are being asked to do something today.

When is the last time you heard one of these people speak of Tomorrowland? That bright shining optimistic future, that better world, the one we ourselves can create now if we only had the will and determination?

Well, if you need a precise date, August 24, 2015 comes to mind - the date Pivot Points went on sale on Amazon. It's a book devoted to the notion that, through a culture of preparedness, we can create "that bright shining optimistic future, that better world, the one we ourselves can create now if we only had the will and determination."

Preppers are not necessarily pessimists. They simply hold a different world view, where the need to prepare is more salient than it is with others. This saliency stems from a heightened sensitivity to the various perils we face. Their efforts to prepare to weather the storm is evidence that there's life worth living after the storm.

​While out in Salt Lake City on Friday, I spent a few hours at PrepperCon, the self-proclaimed “PREMIER prepper event in the nation.” I suspect they are right.​A large number of exhibitors – over one hundred, if I had to guess – were on hand to sell goods and services to the preparedness community. Here are a few of my observations:

It’s easier to put on big preparedness events where preparedness is taken seriously, making Utah a very attractive venue for preparedness events. I’m not making news with that statement, but it’s clear that the kind of preparedness conferences and seminars you folks want to attend in your own communities will only happen when the rest of your community gets on board. The vast majority of people there were locals, judging by the license plates in the parking lot and the Utah-centric advertising and promotions that the vendors were offering. Of course, many of them are based in Utah, so it makes sense.

We need to be ready to share our preparedness talking points at all times. Walking through the exhibit hall, a cameraman for a local TV station asked me if I would be willing to answer some questions on camera about the conference and why I was there. He asked me three or four questions about the event and why I was there. While I was generally pleased with my answers, I realized immediately thereafter I could have been a little more clear in my presentation. I had no reason to think I would be interviewed; nonetheless, it was a good reminder that we all need to be prepared to offer our talking points on the need for a more prepared society.

We’re starting to see some big box vendors venture into preparedness marketing. Cabela’s had a noticeable presence at the conference. While they have sold preparedness gear for years, I’ve never known them to actively engage in marketing to the prepper demographic. The fact their marketing team thought enough of the event to have a meaningful presence there tells me they may be looking to become a market participant in that space.

Duracell’s PowerForward disaster response team and one of their trucks were on hand at PrepperCon. I spent some time talking to their team. They stressed that they were concerned that their branding efforts on the truck would be construed by some as shameless marketing during a disaster. I told them the company had every right to be proud of their post-disaster efforts and willingness to devote resources to help people in their time of need. (I have been a big fan of Duracell batteries for years, and their disaster response efforts further cements my loyalty.) I first met them in Wimberley, Texas after last year’s Memorial Day floods. They were out delivering batteries to those affected by the storm in their massive truck. I got to see it up close:​

The quality of prepper products is getting better. Much of the gear we’d see at these type of events in the Y2K/September 11 era left much to be desired. But now the quality of construction and the technology going into prepper gear has vastly improved in the last 15 years.

We continue to see an increase in the number of realtors/builders who are catering to the prepper market, especially to those in the higher income brackets. Gone are the days that a bug out shelter/bunker need to look or feel like a Cold War relic. The entrepreneurs in this space are getting really good at selling recreational properties and custom housing that has preparedness in mind.

We also continue to see more products and marketing geared to women at these events. I’m really pleased to see that. I’m guessing at least a third of the exhibitors were female, in what used to be a male-dominated environment.

What were the attendees like? While there were certainly a number of “gun guys” there, I would estimate forty percent of the attendees were female. A number of professional types attended (I ran into a lawyer friend of mine from Salt Lake City) as well. This trend has been growing for some time, based on what I have seen at other similar events in the last few years.

What improvements could we see in the preparedness marketplace? Some ideas include:

Vendors who could benefit from customer service/soft skills training. Many of the players in this space are Type-A survivalists who have found a way to make money selling a good or service. That’s fine, but a gruff approach to an ever-diversifying customer base will not increase sales or help build a culture of preparedness.

More demonstrations on the basic prepper skills. Most of us will never need to know how to knife someone or prepare the root of some medicinal plant to stave off a medical emergency. These may very well be important skills to know, but when the vast majority of Americans have made no efforts to get prepared, and the ones who are beginning struggle to find a good starting place, we need opportunities to help fill those gaps. I'm doing my part by co-hosting an event in Austin on June 25 designed to help beginning preppers get started in an efficient, effective way.

What was the most unique thing I saw at PrepperCon? It had to be this:

Relax, expectant moms in a disaster - I have a Birth Bucket. We got this.

We've all seen those articles on social media before: "25 Skills You MUST Have Before The Next Crisis."

Having skills is important. No doubt. We need to know how to improvise and make do with what we have. As James Wesley Rawles always says, "skills beat gadgets, and practicality beats style."

We often focus on those vocational/life hack skills when we talk about preparedness - how to weld, how to can food, how to repair your own vehicle, or how to raise herbs. Let me add one other group of skills sets to the list.

We are a resilient nation. We will rebound from any crisis that affects us. From a preparedness standpoint, that means that many who were not prepared will still survive a large scale emergency. And because they are a) unprepared and b) will survive, it means we will end up interacting with them during the rebuilding process.

the ability to recognize when others are more qualified to accomplish a task

Smith strongly concludes:

"It is perhaps not coincidental that all of the above character qualities are growing rarer as our culture grows more and more unstable. The notion of preparedness for crisis revolves far too much around collecting supplies and menial skills and not enough around collecting people of excellent character. That is to say, true preparedness is about building up necessary supplies and talents, but it is also about organizing with uniquely qualified people. Ignoring the latter task is to set yourself up for inevitable failure."

How can you develop these necessary skill sets?

Look for opportunities that allow you to practice these things. Become a volunteer firefighter or EMT. Become a scout leader. Teach a class on a subject or skill you know to a group of kids or to a community group.

Get involved in community projects and organizations. There are plenty of great community and charitable efforts in need of volunteers. These organizations are free laboratories for you to hone your public speaking, leadership and team building skills. They will also introduce you to others who have these skill sets as well.

Become charitable. A few years ago, I made the decision to tithe based upon my gross income. It has been such a blessing to me that I can never foresee a time where I wouldn't want to tithe. It's also helped me become more willing to engage in self sacrifice of my time and talents as well as my money. Emergencies are lousy times to learn that you cannot engage in self sacrifice.