Tuesday, June 30, 2009

April S&P/Case-Shiller

Los Angeles is still falling but not as steeply in the latest, April 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller update. Including Orange County, it is now down 41.8% from its September 2006 peak, back to July 2003 levels.

By month that's 0.9% from March, 1.4% from February, 2.0% from January, 2.8% from December, 2.5% from November, 2.2% from October, 2.6% from September, 2.5% from August, 1.8% from July, 1.6% from June, 1.4% from May, 1.9% from April, 2.2% from March, 3.6% from February, 4.3% from January, 3.7% from December 2007, 3.6% from November, 3.6% from October, 2.1% from September and 1.3% from August. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down33.6% from its peak in June 2006.

Besides the original city index they have each city broken into Low, Middle, and High tiers (Under $281,165, $281,165 - $433,383, and Over $433,383; updated for April). Los Angeles' Low Tier rose the most and has fallen back the most so far from its November 2006 peak, now 54.7%.

The High Tier rose the least and plateaued for awhile before falling more steeply, now 31.2% from its June 2006 peak. It hasn't retraced quite as far, only to December 2003. Our Westside index is lagging so far, down 22% from its June 2007 peak (below).

Added:Link to the 1/09 post where I introduced this model and projected a 33% drop from the peak. And be sure to see Calculated Risk's discussion today.

One more thing. Nobody should get too excited. This is normally the best time of year for home sales. When seasonally adjusted housing values, at least nationwide, are still falling at over 10% per annum. Still plummeting.

Even without the seasonal adjustment, the annualized rate of depreciation is near 10%.

I really enjoy the analysts' positive outlook based upon the reduction in the rate of decline. I guess it is good news that the economy is no longer falling off a cliff, and instead is sliding quickly down an steep slope.

People keep telling me that venice is down in line with 90402 ie down 30% from the peak. this is despite the fact that venice has a lot of negatives

There are different types of crime - Venice has both property crime and violent crime that are very high

90402 has high property crime but low violent crime

90402 attracts lots of burglars and car thieves since it is well known to offer very nice pickings

Some poor violent people hang around in venice - and they wind up getting drunk and stoned and raping, stabbing and murdering each other. Almost no poor violent people live in the 90402, and almost no poor violent people hang out there. The retail on Montana is not set up to appeal to that demographic.

To get a sense for this, spend a summer weekend walking up and down Montana and the 90402 - then go to Venice and walk around. You can see the difference immediately

(for example, young men in venice showing off gang tats or prison tats - you see very few gang and prison tats in the 90402)

Venice is spicier, edgier, more interesting - some wealthy people accept the downside of venice and like living on the edge - but are there really enough wealthy people like this to keep venice in line with 90402