This study estimates marginal increase in malnutrition for children ages 1-3 years from exposure to an extreme shock in the West African Sahel.
... 更多显示 The study uses knowledge of a child's birth and high resolution spatial and temporal distribution of shocks, calculated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and satellite-based measures of rainfall and temperature to link a child to the shock experienced in-utero. The study finds that while around 20 percent of the children in the sample are stunted or underweight, more than 30 percent of the children in the sample are highly vulnerable to either form of malnutrition.
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This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).
... 更多显示 The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
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The objective of the Third National Communication (TNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Project is to strengthen the information base and institutional capacity of the key members of the Steering Committee, in order to integrate climate change priorities into the recipient's development strategies and relevant sector program by providing financial and technical support to prepare the TNC.
... 更多显示 This project restructuring covers a second extension of the grant's closing date of an additional seven and half (7.5) months, from November 13, 2014 to June 30, 2015, to (i) finalize ongoing studies under component one and two on climate mitigation and adaptation, (ii) prepare a basic Biennial Update Report (BUR) of the Argentine Republic to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and (iii) conduct related dissemination work and provincial level workshops on related capacity building. The restructuring includes reallocation of funds between disbursement categories and the components, as well as a revision of the results framework. Said revision reduces the number of targeted adaptation studies and excludes the final studies on mitigation and adaptation policies and measures (P&M). Further, it improves measuring of intermediate results. The reductions reflect that the project will not be able to complete key contributions to P&M and integration of climate change priorities into the Recipients development strategies and relevant sector programs. However, the project will undertake all efforts to produce a final report on the project results that could be presented to the UNFCCC.
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It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future.
... 更多显示 Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.
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The development objective of the Second Climate Change Development Policy Operation Project for Mozambique is to build effective institutional and policy frameworks for climate resilient development.
... 更多显示 The operation has two pillars: (i) strengthening national policy and institutional frameworks for climate resilient planning; and (ii) strengthening climate resilience in sectors. The first pillar supports cross-cutting reforms that will institutionalize and implement climate change actions at the national, sector, and provincial levels. The second pillar supports the integration of climate resilient planning and development at the sectoral level and focuses support on agriculture, hydro-meteorological services and disaster risk management, human development (health and social protection), and infrastructure (energy, roads, and hydrometeorology). The sector areas included in this development policy operation (DPO) series have been identified as priority reform areas by the Government of Mozambique (GoM). The latter embarked on an ambitious program to build the climate resilience of the country, and introduced six reforms under the first operation. Seven reforms have been introduced under the second operation of this series. There is strong demand to continue with support for further reforms in the sectors covered under the series.
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This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).
... 更多显示 The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
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This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).
... 更多显示 The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
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This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).
... 更多显示 The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
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This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).
... 更多显示 The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
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This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).
... 更多显示 The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
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The objective of the Sustainable Livelihoods and Adaptation to Climate Change Project for India is to improve adaptive capacity of the rural poor engaged in farm based livelihoods to cope with climate variability and change.
... 更多显示 The project has 3 components. (1) Planning, service provision and implementation of climate change adaptation component will support risk assessment, planning, service provision and implementation of climate adaptation interventions. The key activities include: (i) community-led risk assessment and participatory planning of climate adaptation interventions; (ii) provision of strategic climate change adaptation services through knowledge assimilation and partnerships with resource institutions; and (iii) implementation of climate adaptation interventions in agriculture by community institutions (self-help groups/federations) utilizing the Community Climate Adaptation (CCA) grants upon approval of a community adaptation plan. (2) Scaling and mainstreaming community-based climate adaptation component will enable support and build capacity for the implementation of climate adaptation interventions, and to develop the strategy for scaling up. Key activities include: (i) capacity building of National Rural Livelihoods Mission (NRLM) national and state staff and creation of a cadre of Community Resource Persons (CRPs); (ii) building knowledge support system for climate adaptation including policy inputs for scaling-up of the community-based climate adaptation approach within the NRLM. (3) Project management and impact evaluation component will invest in: (i) establishment of climate adaptation units staffed with full-time professionals within the NRLM and the State Rural Livelihoods Mission (SRLMs) of the participating states; (ii) establishment of a monitoring system and evaluation arrangements (baseline, mid-term and end-of-term); (iii) fiduciary, environmental and social safeguards management.
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Information on ecosystem characteristics as well as economic statistics is needed to more fully inform decision makers on the impacts of climate change on human well-being.
... 更多显示 Climate change risks involve potentially large and irreversible as well as highly uncertain impacts that need to be evaluated with information that complements cost-benefit analysis. Information on the irreversibility of impacts also is relevant for evaluating implications for intergenerational equity. In addition, climate change is subject to a large degree of Knightian uncertainty, making it useful to understand how individuals perceive and evaluate climate change risks.
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This report focuses on how we achieve water sustainability over long timescales - decades, even centuries from now. These timescales are important and relevant to our decisions about planning, infrastructure, and institutions today.
... 更多显示 Many of the methods we use to manage water, directly or indirectly, commit us to future decision pathways and restrict us from making other, alternative decisions. Across the first four chapters, this report describes the challenges of including climate change in water management decision-making and provides an overview of current practices in the adaptation field. After considering the pros and cons of these practices, the book concludes with a framework for an adaptation approach supported by Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA).
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Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events.
... 更多显示 This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change either by the incidences of extreme weather events or by variation in temperature or rainfall. A few studies have found that formal and informal institutions as well as policies also affect migration. Institutions that make government more responsive to households (for example through public spending) discourage both international and domestic migration in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Migration is often an option of last resort after vulnerable rural populations attempting to cope with new and challenging circumstances have exhausted other options such as eating less, selling assets, or removing children from school. This study is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. The surveys were administered by in-country partners to a randomly selected set of 800 households per country. It is also important to emphasize that neither the household survey results nor the findings from the qualitative focus groups are meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried, since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. This report is organized as follows: section one gives synthesis. Section two discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section three focuses on migration as a coping mechanisms and income diversification strategy. Section four examines other coping and adaptation strategies. Section five discusses perceptions about government and community programs.
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Climate change and climate-induced migration (Foresight, 2011) are major global concerns. This is true for the MENA region as well. Yet empirical data on how perceptions of climate change and weather shocks affect migration in the region are scarce.
... 更多显示 To what extent are perceived and actual weather shocks and changes in the environment driving temporary and permanent migration flows? Do remittances reach households living in climate poor areas, and if so, what is their impact on poverty and human development? These are some of the questions considered in a study by Wodon et al. (2014) based on various data sources including new household surveys for climate affected areas in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen (the five country sample in this note). In a short summary note as this one, it is important to be clear at the outset about what is measured and what is not. It is sometimes said that Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get. Simply put, climate relates to the distribution of variables such as temperature and rainfall over a long period of time. This distribution is characterized by its moments, including the mean and the variance of key climatic variables. Climate change is then used to refer to the change in the distribution of rainfall and temperature. However, it is difficult to tell if the weather experienced at a point in time is due to climate change (the overall mean and variance of rainfall and temperature) or part of an existing distribution.
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Do households living in climate affected areas in the MENA region believe that changes in climate patterns and their environment are taking place?
... 更多显示 Have households been affected by extreme weather events, and if so to what extent and which events have had the largest impact? What are the coping strategies that households declare having used, or could be using to cope with climate change and weather shocks? And what are the implications for policy? A new World Bank Study by Wodon et al. (2014) helps in answering these questions. It is widely recognized that MENA will be strongly affected by climate change. The frequency and severity of extreme weather shocks is expected to increase. Yet, the evidence on how households are already affected and whether they can cope and adapt to changing climatic conditions is limited. The study by Wodon et al. (2014) helps fill these knowledge gaps. It is based in large part on new household surveys and qualitative data from climate affected areas in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. The study provides insights on household perceptions of, and vulnerability to, extreme weather shocks.
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The development objective of the Climate Resilience - Integrated Basin Management Project for Bolivia is to support the implementation of Borrower's strategic program for climate resilience by: (a) strengthening the Borrower's institutional capacity to define the new integrated river basin management approach to climate change adaptation; and (b) supporting its implementation in three pilot sub-basins in the Rio Grande basin.
... 更多显示 The project comprises of three components. The first component, strengthening national capacity for climate change adaptation includes following three sub-components: (i) creating the national climate and water information system; (ii) integrating climate change adaptation into selected planning and investment tools; and (iii) supporting the Unidad Coordinadora del Programa Piloto de Resiliencia Climatica (UCP-PPCR). The second component, strengthening capacity for adaptation to climate change in the Rio Grande river basin includes following two sub-components: (i) strengthening institutions and planning for integrated and participatory water resources management and climate change adaptation in the pilot sub-basins; and (ii) strengthening the water and climate information systems in the pilot sub-basins. The third component, design and implementation of subprojects that improve climate resilience in the Rio Grande river basin consists of following two sub-components: (i) infrastructure subprojects; and (ii) watershed management subprojects.
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The Be the Movement workshop was an inspiring gathering of climate change activists, youth and concerned professionals. Five main needs on how to strengthen the climate action movement were identified and discussed: message for new audiences; empowering educators; innovating campaign strategies; considering costs; and leading for solutions.
... 更多显示 The workshop confirmed that urgent and bold action is required to tackle climate change. Participants recognized that the global climate change movement will be enhanced if they: a) increase collaboration and cooperation, b) recognize the intimate and unavoidable link between eradicating extreme poverty and climate change, c) emphasize early climate action to avoid high costs in the future, d) stress that mitigation will not hinder economic development, e) highlight that each and every individual can make a difference, and f) offer assistance for educators. Overall, the proceedings and recommendations serve as a pragmatic compendium of shared knowledge for climate action.
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Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions.
... 更多显示 While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes.
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This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration.
... 更多显示 The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa.
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