Media, fans and most of the baseball world have been talking about the Phillies pitching staff since right around December 16, 2010 – which was the day that Cliff Lee opted to return to Philadelphia. Fans will remember where they were when they got this early holiday surprise (see December 14, 2010 http://prosportsblogging.com/mlb-baseball/cliff-lee-once-and-future-phillie) when the Gift of the Magi occurred. Cliff Lee’s return to the Phillies would assemble the most formidable starting rotation of the Modern Era – augmenting a team that has won four straight division titles, two NLCS and one World Championship between 2007-2010 (averaging 93 wins). Despite the syllogism of the “Five Aces” theory, this could compete with the greatest pitching staffs in baseball history no matter who the fifth starter may be (Blanton, Kendrick, Worley). Comparisons began immediately with the Atlanta Braves of the 1990s (Madduz, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Millwood/Lieberandt) or the Threepeat Oakland A’s of the 1970s, the 1960s Dodgers (Koufax, Drysdale, Sutton, Osteen ) or early-1950s Indians (Feller, Lemon, Wynn, Garcia), 1986 New York Mets (Gooden, Darling, Ojeda, Fernandez, Cone) or most notably the Baltimore Orioles of the 1970s (culminating with the last time one starting staff sported four 20-game winners of Palmer-McNally-Dobson-Cuellar in 1971). Naturally, most of those occurred during the era of four starters rather than the modern five (1986-1988 Mets, 1990s Braves notwithstanding), but we are essentially comparing four to four anyway.

Monikers would begin immediately… should they be called “Fantastic Four” or “Fearsome Foursome” or “Four Horsemen of the Phil-pocalypse” or simply “Four Aces”? “R2C2″ was suggested as were a litany of other nicknames but the bottom line was that a staff which sported Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, veteran Roy Oswalt and the former World Series MVP Cole Hamels would not be exponentially better with the return of Lee, who’s been virtually unhittable in half a season plus the 2009 postseason. Four of these starting pitchers could be considered #1 starters on many other MLB teams but for 2011 there four aces would belong to the Phillies. Fantastic… Amazing… Sensational… but speculative at best. Until they took the field and actually performed, this was metaphorical.

Baseball is one of the more quantifiable sports. There is no way to measure Ray Lewis’ true leadership on a football field or the presence of Michael Jordan on the basketball court and the true value of a hot goalie in the NHL playoffs is not able to be gauged. Thanks to the evolution of

Christy Matthewson, Merkle, Doyle & Snodgrass

Johnson

Sabremetrics, the grandson of grizzled “old tyme” statisticians (with their stopwatches and radar guns and their game leg that acts up when a pitcher tops 100 MPH or when a thunderstorm is approaching) quantifiable comparisons can be made between eras (Hank Aaron vs. Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson vs. Randy Johnson), among players of a generation (Barry Bonds vs. Albert Pujols) or across continents (Ichiro Suzuki vs. Ty Cobb). Despite the game’s nuances from stadium to stadium, era to era and influence of science, society and spectators, baseball remains both constant and evolving in a fluid world.

Ichiro

Much as we can see that Babe Ruth’s home run totals rivaled those of most major league franchises in his day, we can witness the relative obsolescence of 300 game pitchers heading into the 21st century. Evolutionarily speaking, we can witness the decline of the stolen base but that makes us appreciate the efforts of Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock and Maury Wills in the same way that we look to baseball’s “Golden Age” when three teams thrived in New York City. Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Mickey Mantle once dominated “The Great Debate” but due to societal and

First pitch California baseball in MLB 1958

economic forces, the baseball landscape would change drastically. Between 1950 and 1960 there was transcontinental franchise movement, a population shift to the Sun Belt of America and the complete racial integration of major league baseball – not to mention expansion past the original 16 teams, frequent jet travel and unparalleled social forces that swept the country and the game alike. Baseball was affected but remained familiar. Bases still stood 90 feet apart, three outs still comprised half an inning and the Yankees always seemed to be in the World Series – usually featuring Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford and Yogi Berra. They “Say Hey Kid” moved from New York to San Francisco with his Giants while the Dodgers devastated the once-idyllic fable of Brooklyn being the consummate baseball neighborhood. Even in Hollywood the game still lasted 9 innings and three strikes meant an out. The game remained the same as progress moved it forward.

Today we look at past performance to indicate future success. We simulate games or entire seasons by shoving algorithms into a computer, which is what I’ve done to prove that the 2011 Phillies rotation is the best of its generation. Best all-time will be argued forever once we have some results!!! Below you will find rankings for all 30 MLB rotations as well as an individualized listing for 150 starting pitchers (5 per team x 30 teams). These offer two measurable realities (based on wins, ERA, IP, WHIP, ER and WAR). First where team collective rotations rank in relation to one another. Second, where each pitcher ranks in relation to their peers. For example if a team has 4 of 5 starters in the Top 20 but then their fifth is ranked 150, their average rank would be approximately 35. I’ve assigned point values to each of these stats listed above (wins, ERA, IP, WHIP, ER and WAR) and ranked staffs accordingly.

Team

Score

Rank

PHI

1229.17

1

LAD

1099.54

2

SFG

1080.86

3

STL

1000.71

4

OAK

941.28

5

LAA

939.69

6

SEA

920.58

7

BOS

913.69

8

MIL

882.2

9

CWS

848.32

10

ATL

843.36

11

DET

795.02

12

FLA

771.38

13

TBR

757.31

14

NYY

749.08

15

MIN

727.76

16

COL

691.3

17

CHC

675.6

18

TEX

672.14

19

HOU

656.61

20

CIN

622.89

21

BAL

608.82

22

TOR

583.86

23

SDP

550.13

24

ARI

500.06

25

NYM

487.76

26

CLE

451.16

27

PIT

338.16

28

KCR

272.99

29

WAS

249.56

30

Likewise, I’ve taken the top prospective 150 starting pitchers (no more or less than 5 per team) and ranked them. I’ve also indicated projections for ERA and IP.

Player

Team/Rank

Comp ERA

COMP IP

Score

Overall Rank

Hernandez, Felix

SEA1

2.84

209

453.53

1

1

Halladay, Roy

PHI1

3.04

209

376.2

2

1

Sabathia, CC

NYY1

3.30

202

345.42

4

1

Lincecum, Tim

SFG1

3.12

189

325.08

5

1

Kershaw, Clayton

LAD1

3.07

179

316.83

6

1

Carpenter,Chris

STL1

3.24

197

315.2

7

1

Jimenez,

COL1

3.22

193

312.66

8

1

Johnson, Josh

FLA1

3.07

173

306.21

9

1

Lester, Jon

BOS1

3.35

184

305.44

10

1

Verlander, Justin

DET1

3.47

196

301.84

12

1

Weaver, Jered

LAA1

3.50

193

291.43

14

1

Price, David

TBR1

3.37

175

287

15

1

Greinke, Zack

MIL1

3.38

193

281.78

16

1

Cahill, Trevor

OAK1

3.53

176

260.48

19

1

Hudson, Tim

ATL1

3.41

178

254.54

21

1

Latos, Matt

SDP1

3.30

157

241.78

23

1

Wilson, CJ

TEX1

3.54

146

214.62

28

1

Romero, R

TOR1

3.89

183

204.96

32

1

Myers, Brett

HOU1

3.84

176

176

45

1

Buehrle

CWS1

4.07

187

175.78

46

1

Hudson, Daniel

ARI1

3.20

104

170.56

49

1

Guthrie, Mark

BAL1

4.09

185

170.2

50

1

Liriano, Pedro

MIN1

4.07

167

156.98

60

1

Pelfrey, Mike

NYM1

4.00

180

151.2

63

1

Zambrano, C

CHC1

3.79

133

139.65

74

1

Carmona, F

CLE1

4.32

178

122.82

81

1

Volquez, E

CIN1

3.89

96

91.2

99

1

Maholm, P

PIT1

4.45

172

67.08

122

1

Hochevar, L

KCR1

4.79

125

27.5

145

1

Hernandez, L

WAS1

4.82

154

3.08

149

1

Wainwright, A

STL2

2.98

198

368.28

3

2

Cain, Matt

SFG2

3.26

193

304.94

11

2

Lee, Cliff

PHI2

3.29

189

292.95

13

2

Haren, Danny

LAA2

3.76

200

250

22

2

Billingsley, Chad

LAD2

3.57

175

222.25

27

2

Scherzer

DET2

3.77

173

214.52

29

2

Rodriguez,W.

HOU2

3.64

178

213.6

30

2

Anderson, Brett

OAK2

3.49

134

203.68

34

2

Gallardo, Yovani

MIL2

3.68

171

198.36

36

2

Lewis, Colby

TEX2

3.8

161

194.81

37

2

Floyd, Gavin

CWS2

3.9

173

192.03

38

2

Garza, Matt

CHC2

3.81

182

187.46

40

2

Hughes, Phil

NYY2

3.8

141

170.61

48

2

Vargas, Jason

SEA2

3.97

161

167.44

54

2

Arroyo, Bronson

CIN2

4

190

159.6

58

2

Pavano, Carl

MIN2

4.24

190

146.3

70

2

Matusz, Brian

BAL2

4.06

152

144.4

72

2

Richard, Clayton

SDP2

4.05

171

135.09

77

2

Morrow, B.

TOR2

4.04

126

122.22

82

2

Masterson, B

CLE2

4.23

148

115.44

85

2

Lowe, Derek

ATL2

4.19

176

114.4

88

2

Nolasco, Ricky

FLA2

4.16

157

106.76

91

2

Saunders, Joe

ARI2

4.25

180

106.2

92

2

Shields, James

TBR2

4.45

183

102.48

95

2

Beckett

BOS2

4.31

145

101.5

97

2

De La Rosa

COL2

4.17

138

92.46

98

2

Ohlendorf

PIT2

4.14

126

88.2

101

2

Niese

NYM2

4.26

149

86.42

102

2

Francis

KCR2

4.5

111

56.61

133

2

Marquis

WAS2

4.46

111

42.18

141

2

Danks

CWS3

3.54

187

274.89

17

3

Hanson

ATL3

3.31

174

266.22

18

3

Oswalt

PHI3

3.44

183

256.2

20

3

Lilly

LAD3

3.63

175

211.75

31

3

Garcia, Jaime

STL3

3.36

138

204.24

33

3

Dempster

CHC3

3.83

188

189.88

39

3

Gonzalez, Gio

OAK3

3.91

168

184.8

41

3

Sanchez, Jonathan

SFG3

3.76

171

184.68

42

3

Marcum

MIL3

3.7

158

180.12

43

3

Santana, Ervin

LAA3

4.09

185

170.2

51

3

Sanchez, Anibal

FLA3

3.82

166

169.32

53

3

Lackey

BOS3

4.14

185

160.95

57

3

Davis, Wade

TBR3

4.01

148

148

65

3

Cueto

CIN3

3.97

170

147.9

66

3

Baker

MIN3

4.12

165

146.85

69

3

Fister

SEA3

4.05

151

144.96

71

3

Kennedy

ARI3

3.95

156

138.84

75

3

Porcello

DET3

4.16

158

134.3

78

3

Bergesen

BAL3

4.27

156

115.44

84

3

Cecil, Brett

TOR3

4.27

155

114.7

86

3

Lannan

WAS3

4.17

152

101.84

96

3

Talbot

CLE3

4.4

139

84.79

104

3

Burnett

NYY3

4.53

174

83.52

105

3

Webb

TEX3

3.75

60

75.6

108

3

Young

NYM3

3.92

78

71.76

114

3

Cook, Aaron

COL3

4.37

140

65.8

125

3

Norris

HOU3

4.4

142

62.48

128

3

Davies, Kyle

KCR3

4.69

164

52.48

135

3

Correia

PIT3

4.53

150

46.5

138

3

Harang

SDP3

4.74

130

13

147

3

Buchholz

BOS4

3.49

156

237.12

24

4

Hamels

PHI4

3.57

184

233.68

25

4

Braden

OAK4

3.67

168

225.12

26

4

Kuroda

LAD4

3.65

169

201.11

35

4

Jurrjens

ATL4

3.57

140

177.8

44

4

Jackson

CWS4

4.09

186

171.12

47

4

Pineiro

LAA4

3.93

157

169.56

52

4

Wolf

MIL4

3.98

189

162.54

56

4

Wells, Randy

CHC4

3.93

173

157.43

59

4

Chacin, Jhoulys

COL4

3.5

117

156.78

61

4

Niemann

TBR4

4.06

163

154.85

62

4

Bumgarner

SFG4

3.54

113

146.9

68

4

Hunter

TEX4

3.96

134

140.7

73

4

Happ

HOU4

3.62

112

136.64

76

4

Dickey

NYM4

3.88

137

131.52

79

4

Stauffer

SDP4

3.36

87

128.76

80

4

Slowey

MIN4

4.22

145

114.55

87

4

Westbrook

STL4

4.16

161

109.48

89

4

Duchscherer

BAL4

3.59

74

105.08

93

4

Vazquez

FLA4

4.19

158

102.7

94

4

Garcia, Freddy

NYY4

4.44

144

82.08

106

4

Tomlin

CLE4

4.18

97

80.51

107

4

Rzepczynski

TOR4

4.22

95

75.05

109

4

Bailey

CIN4

4.25

126

74.34

110

4

Coke

DET4

3.87

64

72.96

113

4

Chen

KCR4

4.46

124

68.2

117

4

McDonald, J.

PIT4

3.92

72

66.24

124

4

French

SEA4

4.46

104

57.2

132

4

Zimmermann

WAS4

4.18

85

56.1

134

4

Duke

ARI4

4.7

161

22.54

146

4

Duensing

MIN5

3.5

108

163.08

55

5

Wood

CIN5

3.49

111

149.85

64

5

Garland

LAD5

4.02

180

147.6

67

5

Zito

SFG5

4.17

178

119.26

83

5

Matsuzaka

BOS5

4.25

143

108.68

90

5

Bedard

SEA5

3.71

68

88.4

100

5

Volstad

FLA5

4.31

163

86.39

103

5

Arrieta, Jake

BAL5

4.34

110

73.7

111

5

LeBlanc

SDP5

4.3

136

73.44

112

5

Penny

DET5

4.33

105

71.4

115

5

Blanton

PHI5

4.42

167

70.14

116

5

Mazzaro

KCR5

4.46

124

68.2

118

5

Figueroa, Nelson

HOU5

4.11

93

67.89

119

5

Nova

NYY5

4.06

71

67.45

120

5

McCarthy

OAK5

4.05

70

67.2

121

5

Drabek

TOR5

4.04

69

66.93

123

5

Hellickson

TBR5

3.87

57

64.98

126

5

Hammel, J.

COL5

4.44

159

63.6

127

5

Galarraga, A.

ARI5

4.41

144

61.92

129

5

Narveson

MIL5

4.4

135

59.4

130

5

Kazmir

LAA5

4.62

150

58.5

131

5

Carrasco

CLE5

4.45

85

47.6

136

5

Capuano

NYM5

4.18

71

46.86

137

5

Holland

TEX5

4.5

91

46.41

139

5

Gorzelanny

WAS5

4.46

122

46.36

140

5

Harrell

CWS5

4.32

50

34.5

142

5

Olsen

PIT5

4.54

105

31.5

143

5

Minor

ATL5

4.44

76

30.4

144

5

Lohse

STL5

4.81

117

3.51

148

5

Silva

CHC5

4.83

118

1.18

150

5

This listing also tells us for example whether or not Joe Blanton is the best fifth starter in baseball (which seems to be the mantra of a lot of misguided Phillies fans). Based on ERA and IP, Blanton would rank 11 and arguably that at best since Kyle Lohse or the occasional Jason Hammel or Brandon McCarthy or even Tom Gorzelanny could overtake Blanton. This of course is precluding the potential for someone not on the list to make a splash and take a rotation spot that might not be expected. That is where sabremetrics ends and the game of baseball begins. A player has to make the team and perform well and that cannot be predicted. Nostradamus never had opportunity to observe baseball but that is why they play the games!