Actually Ausiello's list is of shows that are "a sure thing" (NCIS) to get renewed (and already renewed), "a long shot" (Numb3rs), "could go either way" (Heroes), and of course shows that have already been canceled (Ugly Betty).

The full list is over here and should be considered informed/speculative.

I have a few thoughts here. I agree that Heroes is a tossup, but it shouldn't be. From an advertiser's perspective it should almost certainly be canceled. Entering what would be its fith season the show is undoubtedly getting expensive to produce. Actors will demand more and more money to stay on a failing TV show, writers will be getting title and pay bumps, the cast just seems to keep growing, and that's on top of what was already probably a pretty pricey show to begin with.

From a creative standpoint I think the show has leveled out and is even a little better than it was in the second year. The baby face turn ("pro"-wrestling terminology for a "bad guy" or a heel that turns into a good guy, or a "baby face") of Sylar opens many interesting story possibilities and I find that exciting and something I'd look forward to seeing.

And let's be honest, Heroes is practically the only "sexy" brand that NBC has right now. There's no guarantee NBC could replace it with a better performing show.

[Note: My suggestion for picking up the pace with Heroes would be to do what Law & Order does, or what 24 does. L&W replaces the entire cast every once in a while and it magically just works. 24 replaces the entire cast gradually by killing people off, but never the series star. That could work too.]

Speaking of 24, it's on the bubble too, but for more obvious reasons. Eight seasons is a lot for any show to be considered a huge success, and it's obviously not getting any cheaper. I'd be surprised if Kiefer Sutherland wasn't getting extremely bored with the concept and was ready to move on to other shows or do more feature film work. There's supposed to be a feature film version of 24 in the works and Sutherland did say that he'd like for 24 to become a feature franchise, I guess to compete against the Borne series.