In the latest move in a tedious slow motion hokey-cokey, the Fifa secretary general, Jérôme Valcke, has not so much let the cat out of the bag as admitted he never bothered putting it back in to begin with.

In hindsight, it is crystal clear that a winter World Cup in Qatar was virtually inevitable from the moment Sepp Blatter pulled the name of the Gulf state from an envelope on 2 December 2010 in Zurich to general incredulity from the public and knowing nods from those close enough to the Fifa executive committee to read its intentions.

The world was still digesting the ramifications of the decision to award the World Cup to a country smaller than Yorkshire with temperatures that regularly top 50C in summer, when Franz Beckenbauer became the first to suggest a switch to winter only 24 hours later. His fellow former European footballer of the year Michel Platini was not far behind.

Fifa's own technical reports, largely ignored by the 22 voters swayed by other factors, had already highlighted the "potential health risk" for players, officials and spectators, and ranked Qatar's plans for team facilities as "high risk" in the summer.

Since then, a tortuously slow process has led world football to a decision that will have huge ramifications for the global sporting calendar, and the broadcasters and sponsors who bankroll it, even if they will fall short of some of the more apocalyptic predictions.

First, there was a period during which both the Qatar organisers and Fifa pursued an "after you" strategy of claiming that it was down to the other to make the first move towards a winter switch. Meanwhile, outriders including Platini and the former French president Nicolas Sarkozy continued to bang the drum.

Fearful of the potential legal consequences from US broadcasters, European leagues and failed rival bids from Australia and the US, during this period both Blatter and Valcke insisted that the tournament would be played in June – occasionally referencing the ambitious air-cooled stadiums promised by the Qataris.

"The invitation to tender was to play this [2022] World Cup in June, and that's how it was done," said Valcke immediately after the vote. A few months later Blatter said: "The basic conditions – not just for Qatar, but for all the candidates – were the same. It means that the Fifa World Cup is played in June and July."

The uneasy standoff held until Blatter performed an archetypal U-turn. "After many discussions, deliberations and critical review of the entire matter, I came to the conclusion that playing the World Cup in the heat of Qatar's summer was simply not a responsible thing to do," he explained in an odd interview with Inside World Football in September, which read more like a legal paper than the usual idiosyncratic ramblings of the Fifa president.

It then became a matter of when, not if, the move was confirmed. But with the European Club Association, the Premier League and the Bundesliga in particular alarmed by the typically haphazard way in which the global sporting calendar was being redrawn – and amid growing pressure from US broadcasters and the International Olympic Committee – they demanded a pause.

Blatter, aware he had pushed the issue too far and too fast, agreed. Besieged by renewed outrage over the conditions in which migrant construction workers were toiling in Qatar, he promised a consultation that would go beyond the Brazil World Cup and deliver a verdict in December 2014.

In reality, that has turned out to be a case of Valcke touring the globe trying to smooth the ruffled feathers of professional leagues and, in particular, the US and Latin American broadcasters that bankroll Fifa to the tune of $1bn.

And as ever in the medieval court of Fifa, there are other factors at play. Many are convinced that it suited Blatter to kick the Qatar winter World Cup can down the road because it is more damaging for Platini, his potential rival for the presidency in 2015 and a vocal supporter of Qatar 2022, than it is for him.

Valcke and Blatter have operated hand in glove since the longstanding president brought him back into the fold in the summer of 2007, just six months after he had left the organisation when it emerged in a New York courtroom that he had lied to both Visa and MasterCard over contractual sponsorship negotiations.

The Frenchman also has form in acting as a kind of outrider for official Fifa policy. It was he who sparked a diplomatic row with Brazil by saying they needed a "kick up the backside" in preparing for the World Cup. He was forced to apologise but has since been proved right by the ongoing delays to the completion of World Cup venues.

He was also embarrassed by a leaked email in June 2011, at the height of a slew of corruption allegations and Blatter's contested re-election, in which he said Qatar had "bought" the World Cup. He later insisted he was referring to the unprecedented sums lavished on its campaign, rather than alleging any bribery.

So now Valcke has confirmed what we have known all along. That, with the Winter Olympics effectively making January a non-starter (much to Platini's chagrin, given his preference for avoiding a clash with the Champions League group stages), the Qatar World Cup will be held in November and December 2022.

The fact that period will also take in two international breaks makes it marginally less disruptive, though that will do little to soothe the ire of the Premier League and others who must solve issues around the transfer window, player contracts and the schedule of not only the 2021/22 season but of those either side. By airing his long-held view in public, however, Valcke is signifying a greater confidence in his ability to pilot the change past ongoing objections.

Broadcasters may have to be recompensed and the European leagues soothed but, whatever Fifa may say officially, the decision has been taken. Amid all that, it should not be forgotten that this is a mess entirely of its own making.