The Demographic Cliff

2/1/2013 6:41PM

Americans are not reproducing enough, and the long-term consequences are dire, says Jonathan V. Last, author of "What To Expect When No One's Expecting," in a discussion with WSJ Weekend Review editor Gary Rosen.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

... I ... these days there are lots of reasons that Americans are worried about the future of the United States ... their fiscal problems problems having do with health care immigration a host of issues ... but our guests today says we've got it all wrong we're missing ... the real problem so what were joined today by Jonathan last ... By Jonathan ... and that area ... so Jonathan is the author of the new book with really in titled what to expect when no one is expecting so so what is that title mean Jonathan what's the real problem we're missing here ... the real problem we're missing is the right to create work that demographic class ... since the nineteen seventy three we haven't been having enough babies here in America it is to keep our population steady ... and Telenor leases continue to grow because immigration and the phenomenal demographic momentum ... you know sooner or later that's the key route would be facing ... stagnant demographic profile that's the sort of thing that leads to ... all the other ancillary Proms we see in our economy with entitlements ... will that but I don't get it where where we are increasing in population but not dramatically doesn't that mean there's just more stuff for those of this tour around if we add don't keep ... growing in terms of population ... now on for Chile it doesn't default folder that were true ... that the prom is that when two things happen when your fertility rates this low ... the first is that your age profile perks and see one of a lot more old people when you have young people ... in all people wonderful ... Michael people ... but the problem is they they consume less and fewer good less goods ... then then people further down on the age scale ... and and because of that to them wind up with diminished consumption in just about everything other than health care ... and the other thing is they you know they invest differently there looking at ... asset for mentioned that and then eventually asset drawdowns he don't have ... a large pools of capital to help with innovation ... and Xu GCC is actually countries that are just further ahead of us on the road to the Democratic left countries like ... Greece and Japan ... you wanna put the stagnant economies that that's an enormous Proms entitlement systems ... that and now look to to first world country like America ... we might people whether this demographic storm by only having ... now you know in a giant crisis of the entitlement state ... that I am now thirty years of basically flat economic growth would be a lot of fun but we can we can muddle through ... the prom is the entire world is undergoing this transition the exact same time ... and the results can be a lot different and less stable countries the mouse ... will go to bed haven't we been dealing with this problem through immigration so people who've been here for generations are having so many babies but we're getting ... lots of newcomers right and dad and many of them tend to have a higher birth rate isn't that a kind of six ... you know it is in fact it is only fixated on going for us ... I mean I look I actually am sympathetic to both sides of the immigration debate because massive immigration the way we experience it ... carries all sorts of awesome and I think those costs are real ... but when you look at immigration just as the demographic plans ... it's really been an enormous eight years been the only thing keeping us from going over the demographic left ... in Denso's I say and what to expect ... and you know we should be thankful we have disintegration of the last thirty years is about as many strip those numbers out our profile literally looks like what the senior up ... but what we have two problems in the first of which is that there's a supply side immigration ... and most demographers believe that ... we are looking at the end of mass immigration from South and Central America because they are undergoing the same fertility crises that we're ... going here ... and secondly what we've seen with ... cheaply Stanek Americans to immigrants to America ... they come to us that these elevated fertility levels and that they repress the mean green thing really quickly ... I'm that's the sort of a lessening ... of the of the lovely power of a man of American culture ... I am so you know this panic Americans in recent events of the doing the heavy lifting the demographic profile for a long time ... so so why is this happening Jonathan and what if anything can we do about it ... were there is nothing we tended not ... to work properly ... although we might be ... it was the reason is happening at nine times this book ... literally thousands of factors seen on a range from new creation so Security to creating carseat losses actual revolution ... and some other factors are really good and some other factors that because we've we get a lot of women going to education are going into college now and then go eat all sorts of industries and in the economy ... it's a very good thing ... but you know treat these are problems that it pushes people for smaller families and later marriage ... and services giant constellation of forces at work here and what I really think represents modernity itself ... you know for modern living has created this problem ... and aggressive how we get out of it that no one knows people been trying to use fertility rates when they societies hit this wall of literally since the fall of Rome and honor and that no one has found a good fix yes ... okay did you do you do you think any of the solutions proposed by people on the left people on the right makes sense or they were trying ... some of them are days you know I did the letter I have different ideas about this and you know in the academic field people made him really serious study this ... year on the left they tend to think of more more government spending will help that the creation of ... state government daycare centers will help ... Diana some evidence that helps at the margins the really on the margins ... and on the right there is in a belief that will be fixed the tax code and an ... antique urged initial family guy is that will work ... out there's some evidence that you know from places like Singapore that that doesn't help all that much either ... you know is what we really have to do is try to get there some room for some smart Neil was policy in U S Cardinals policy basically just means ... making life easier for the people who will read what activities you can write people have kids they don't want ... and then the other half is changing the culture yet she hopes is that people ... don't tell your future more and are willing to have kids because none of the big secret all this ... is that having kids is kind of draw deal it's not a lot of fun right ... all right ... author Jonathan last things for joining us ... for Wall Street Journal weekend Revue I'm Gary Rosen ...