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Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

Wouldn't that make him, by definition, a MOR starter or at least one that is better than a typical fifth starter?

And, since he's young and still learning his craft, wouldn't that make him a good bet to be even better as he continues to learn the art of pitching?

It would suggest he's been a back end starter. Again, he was drafted as a guy with major league quality command of four pitches who was well ahead of the curve from a pitchability standpoint.

I'm not sure there is alot of room to squeeze juice out of those apples-which again is the point concerning arguments that Leake has a ton of room to grow.

Last edited by jojo; 03-29-2013 at 06:51 PM.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

Mike Leake's draft position means he is worse than other players who are as good as him. Likewise, his ability to improve going forward is hampered by the perceieved ceiling of the idealistic first rounder. He is the worst best first rounder.

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

Originally Posted by Larry Schuler

Mike Leake's draft position means he is worse than other players who are as good as him. Likewise, his ability to improve going forward is hampered by the perceieved ceiling of the idealistic first rounder. He is the worst best first rounder.

Not only that, I have it from a reliable source within the organization (which I cannot name, so don't ask me-- ever-- just know that this source is indeed impeachable) that he is his own grandpa.

"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

ERA tells us what actually happened. It might not be a great tool to determine what will happen going forward, but it does quantify what happened.

FIP is no better from a quantification standpoint, since it gives no credit for what happens in the field of play (which we are now learning is not accurate).

Leake's SIERA last year was actually pretty flattering (4.01). For his career, it's 4.02. That puts Leake No. 67 out of those 132 pitchers, which is squarely as a middle-of-the-rotation guy.

In order to make Leake look bad by any measure, one has to ignore his ability to induce grounders and everything that happens in the field of play, which we know is not very intuitive since it is a very important ability.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

Originally Posted by Larry Schuler

Mike Leake's draft position means he is worse than other players who are as good as him. Likewise, his ability to improve going forward is hampered by the perceieved ceiling of the idealistic first rounder. He is the worst best first rounder.

Mike Leake's age means he's not as good as those who are as good as he is, thus those who are as good as he is, do not know they are as good as they are. So the perception is that his potential is therefore limited by his draft position, which means he will be as good as the least best person who is the best.

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

As starters go Leake is a little better than average at inducing ground balls. He is one of the worst in the majors at inducing HRs.

Number threes are not tees.

If Leake suddenly stops giving up so many home runs, then he'll be on to something.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

As starters go Leake is a little better than average at inducing ground balls. He is one of the worst in the majors at inducing HRs.

Number threes are not tees.

If Leake suddenly stops giving up so many home runs, then he'll be on to something.

Agreed. Now how he goes about allowing fewer homers is another question, which Coach Price is much more qualified to answer then I am.

All things being equal, GABP is about as bad a fit for Leake as there could be.

...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

As starters go Leake is a little better than average at inducing ground balls. He is one of the worst in the majors at inducing HRs.

Number threes are not tees.

If Leake suddenly stops giving up so many home runs, then he'll be on to something.

Leake just needs to figure out a way to pitch at home.

He only gave up 9 HR on the road last year (versus 17 at home). IMO, he has let the GABP get in his head. Sure, it is a good HR park, but it's not so extreme that his HR rate should double there. It is no coincidence that the best year of his career (2011) was the year where he managed to keep the ball in the park while pitching at home. Perhaps Mike should seek out a sports psychiatrist?

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

Originally Posted by 757690

He seems to me to be really good at inducing HR's, a little too good

He was one of the best at preventing flyballs from influencing his BABIP....

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

Leake's groundball/flyball ratio this year put him 16 in all of baseball (1.84) Average is roughly around 1.00. Even in terms of GB%, Leake was 27 in all of baseball among starters.

That is good no matter how you slice it.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

On any given year the ML average for a starting pitcher is a GB% of 45. Leake hovers around 48%. If one wants to talk about being a true GB pitcher stat looking at guys who are above 50%.

Leake induces GBs a little higher than average but it's not like he's a GB machine. If that is the peg his supporters are hanging their hats upon, I hope they wear visors.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Buster Olney says scouts are raving about Mike Leake

So in summary, Leake is sorta, kinda, but really not very good. Okay. Got it.

He's been a back end starter up to this point in his career. That's not a controversial statement.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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