Wednesday, April 19, 2017

How to talk about climate change at a party

This is a real conversation that took place a few days ago although, of course, the words that I report here can't be exactly what we said. The protagonists are me and an acquaintance of mine. Imagine us holding glasses while at a party.

Her: Ugo, did you hear what Trump is doing? He wants to destroy the climate data!

Me: I heard something about that.

Her. But it is awful! How can they allow him to do that? Destroying the work of the climate scientists!

Me. You know this joke about Trump? The one that goes, "What happens when Donald Trump takes Viagra?"

Her. Ugo, you keep joking all the time. But don't you work in this field? Why don't you tell me what you are really thinking about climate change?

Me (looking somber). It is a long story.

Her. Seriously, I want to know what you think.

Me. Really?

Her. Absolutely. Tell me what's going on.

Me (after having taken a deep breath). The situation is out of control. The amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are larger than any value seen in the past 10 million years and it keeps rising. The icecaps are melting, droughts are destroying agriculture in the tropical regions, extreme weather phenomena are on the rise. Temperatures are rising and the commitments to keep the increase below two degrees are insufficient. In addition, we are in the middle of a mass extinction, destroying the fertile soil, poisoning everything, running out of mineral resources, and the planet is overpopulated.

Her ....................

Me ...................

Her. I read that we'll soon be able to colonize other planets, is that true?

Hello! This is Ugo Bardi - I tend to overextend myself on the Web by writing a lot of stuff. Presently, my blog in English is titled "Cassandra's Legacy". In English, I have another blog a little more esoteric, titled Chimeras. The first is dedicated to sustainability, the second to mythology, history, and art. See also my latest book, "The Seneca Effect," Springer 2017.

20 comments:

Oh, I forgot, everyone likes to be invited to a party every once in a while. Too much doom and the invitations stop.

Perhaps you could have told her that you already have a ticket to Mars and have heard that land is really plentiful there, with great views from every balcony. Perhaps she would like to visit after you move to your Olympus Mons estate? That would keep the conversation going.

I had that same conversation a while back and after I finished the big picture talk she rapidly chimed in "well I bought a Prius". Rather than explain I simply said "well good for you" and headed for the bar.

Ugo,Maybe she can't handle, but I can. The key is learning about the topic. Having talked to more than 40 climate scientists, I'm starkly aware of what we're facing, yet I remain cautiously optimistic based on an RCP 4.5 scenario. I don't know your true feelings on the subject, but I know realism is vital.

Those determined cocktail dissipatives, always rubbing shoulders and looking for opportunities for more growth, consumption, reproduction, and hierarchical standing (and going to Mars). Reality is uninhabited by humans. You are going to be very lonely in Reality.

so i take it you didnt pull then ugo lol. obviously your answer was not doomy enough for her taste. these doomer chicks are so hard to please, always wanting worse and worse scenarios. she would have absolutely loved the truth about the impossibility of space colonization :)

Ugo , just in case you haven't heard............HOT EARTH DREAMS by Frank Landis is a thought provoking book on the subject of Climate change/warming and his conclusion seems to be that the cake is already baked. There is momentum built in making any changes to the trajectory ineffective. Everything these days in science seems to have a model and Frank's model is pretty grim. Magical thinking is the disease of our age like the plague was in the 14th century.

Me Still, 100 thousand years ago when a massive ice age had the earth in the grip of a super drought, the human species officially went extinct when our population dropped to approximately 600 people. But we survived that calamity thanks to Mitochondrial Eve and her wise intelligent prowess.Could you insure the survival of the human species if you became the modern Mitochondrial Eve of a remnant population ?

Both the subtle science and the subtler humor are of course, as usual, astounding. I hope (and trust) they will continue and that this whole subtle (or non-subtle) issue will be kept alive well after Trump's viagra wears off....

My rejectionist take on "La Vida Es Sueño" by Calderón de la Barca translates as: "Reality Is a Deceitful Illusion." (In Clintonesque, that depends on your definition of "Reality".)

My Dad had a delightful take on the stubborn belief that Wishing Makes It So:

When I am upset with the way of the world and how it treats me, on a stormy night I go climb the tall hill, shake my fist at the sky and proclaim, "Listen to me! I want what I want when I want it!" Whereupon the lightning flashes and the thunder crashes and the clouds part and a deep voice rumbles, "Good! You will get what you get when you get it!"

Ugo Bardi's blog

This blog deals with the future of humankind in view of such things as the overexploitation of natural resourecs and the effects of global warming. It is a bit catastrophistic, I know, but, after all, the ancient prophetess, Cassandra (above in a painting by Evelyn de Morgan) turned out to have been right!

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Listen! for no more the presage of my soul, Bride-like, shall peer from its secluding veil; But as the morning wind blows clear the east,More bright shall blow the wind of prophecy,And I will speak, but in dark speech no more.(Aeschylus, Agamemnon)

The Seneca Effect

The Seneca Effect: is this what our future looks like?

Chimeras: another blog by UB

Another blog by Ugo Bardi; it is dedicated to art, myths, literature, and history with a special attention to ancient monsters and deities.

Rules of the blog

I try to publish at least a post every week, typically on Mondays, but additional posts often appear on different days. Comments are moderated: no insults, no hate, no trolls. You may reproduce my posts as you like, citing the source is appreciated!

About the author

Ugo Bardi teaches physical chemistry at the University of Florence, in Italy. He is interested in resource depletion, system dynamics modeling, climate science and renewable energy. Contact: ugo.bardi(whirlything)unifi.it