Thursday, 20 December 2012

Despite the main equity indexes seeing further gains, the metals saw significant declines. Gold and Silver fell 1.2 and 3.7% respectively. The near term trend remains downward, but the intra-day bounce is suggestive that a brief floor might be in place.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

GLD, monthly3

Summary

It has been a long time coming, but GLD broke into the 158s, and seemingly found a little buying interest.

However, lets be clear, the daily, weekly, and monthly momentum is still DOWN. Even if we get a few days of moderately higher closes, it could merely be a bear flag, with much lower levels to come.

Considering the equity market is still >sp'1400 - and my general outlook for low sp'1200s, if I'm right about equities, I can't possibly imagine GLD holding the 150s. A move into the 140s, even 130s seems viable in spring 2013.

Even worse for the metal bulls, if the US dollar starts to rally in early 2013, that will put very significant added downward pressure on both the metals..and equities.

Without question, keep your eyes on how the US dollar trades across the next 2-4 weeks.

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Whilst the equity indexes break the highs from last weeks FOMC, the metals suffered, with Gold and Silver declining by 1.5 and 1.9% respectively. The immediate term is likely to see further weakness, with Gold likely to fall a further $40.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

As expected, the metals were due to show a renewed move lower this week, and we certainly saw that today. Today's declines were in stark opposition to the main equity markets which were significantly higher.

The Gold/Silver bugs will understandably be yet further annoyed by this latest move. Yet there is likely more of this to come.

Primary target remains GLD 158, which is still almost a full $40 lower than current levels. That probably equates to a further $1 to $1.50 fall in Silver.

Friday, 14 December 2012

The precious metals saw moderate declines in the latter part of the week. Gold and Silver closed the week lower by 0.6 and 2.7% respectively. The near term trend is bearish, and it is expected GLD will hit 158 next week, which is a good $60 lower.

GLD, 60min

GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly

Summary

Nothing has changed in the near term outlook. A test of the big GLD 158 level seems very likely, and that remains a significant $60 lower than the closing level this Friday.

How the metals trade in early 2013 will be significantly dependent upon the currency markets. With some surprising renewed weakness in the Dollar this Friday, it is now increasingly uncertain whether the metals will see a few months of weakness in early 2013.

Monday, 10 December 2012

Even though both Gold and Silver closed higher, they closed well below their opening levels, and thus closed with black candles on the daily chart. The immediate trend is bearish, and the past four trading days could easily be nothing less than a minor bear flag, which should break lower either tomorrow..or Wednesday.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Near term targets remain GLD 158 and SLV 30/29.50.

If those levels are met, it is likely we'll see a bounce...even if its just a brief one.
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Thursday, 6 December 2012

The precious metals saw moderate advances Thursday, but this was especially impressive when you consider the dollar was around 0.6% higher - a pretty significant move in currency terms. The near term trend in the metals remains somewhat to the downside, with targets of GLD 158 and SLV 30.

GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, the fact the metals held up against the dollar - its second consecutive daily rise, was really impressive.

WTIC Oil - which is similarly highly susceptible to dollar strength, declined by around 2%. In many respects, on a 'normal' day, Gold would have lost around $30 today, with Silver slipping $1.50.

Are underlying currency concerns still keeping the two main precious metals from falling any lower?
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With FOMC next Wednesday - where 45bn of T-bill buying (starting in January) will be confirmed, a further price boost to a broad range of assets seems likely in the latter half of next week.

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Despite a somewhat weak dollar, the precious metals are seeing some serious weakness again. Gold and Silver look especially weak on the weekly charts, with targets of GLD 158 and SLV 30. If the dollar starts showing some strength in the coming festive period, the metals will be hit hard.

GLD, weekly, rainbow

SLV, weekly

Summary

Despite the hysteria in the gold bug community -where there is still talk of Gold $2000 in early 2013, the precious metals are in real trouble right now.

We have some strong divergence, and its suggesting that the late summer bounce..is likely over.

In the immediate term, GLD looks set for a fall to 158..where a bounce is likely to 160/62.

SLV looks set to for a hit of the big $30, where it would probably bounce back to 32.
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In the long term...precious metals will probably see massive upside, but..as noted..near term looks weak.

Saturday, 1 December 2012

The precious metals remain at an important junction. Either the metals are in multi-month bull flags, or this is a wave'2 bounce - from the original decline that started in summer 2011. The break/snap levels are very clear, and we'll probably know within the next 3-6 weeks, which formation we are dealing with.

GLD, monthly3

SLV, monthly

Summary

There is not too much to note on the metals at this time. The past month saw moderate gains of 3% for Silver, whilst Gold was effectively unchanged.

The deflationists will wish to see GLD test, and break the 158 level. The equivalent level for SLV is the big $30 level.

GLD bulls should be seeking a break above 175. If we can see a monthly close >180 at any point in early 2013, then GLD will probably soar into the mid 200s.

One thing is for sure, we won't be trading in this narrow range for much longer.

Finally, as any monthly chart clearly shows, on a multi-year basis, the precious metals remain in relentless up trends. The only issue still seems to be, the rate at which they increase.

Disclaimer: These pages (and especially all charts) are for informational purposes only. Most of the numerical data/calculations 'should' be correct. However, YOU make your own decisions as to if you think any comment or data point/chart is correct or not. All comments posted via Disqus/Google (or any other type) users may/may not be agreed with by yours truly.

I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.