“Ekmat Gujarat, Bane Bhajap Sarkar” (Gujarat Unanimously Wants A Bharatiya Janata Party Government), says a slogan on the personal website of Narendra Modi, the charismatic and polarizing politician who has been at the helm of the state since 2002.

And exit polls released after voting ended Monday evening, suggest the people in Gujarat agree, wholeheartedly. They expect the BJP is set to win two-thirds or more of the 182 state assembly seats up for grabs. This expected landslide verdict, some argue, is just the tonic Mr. Modi needs to project himself not just as a state-level chief minister, but also as a potential prime ministerial candidate as the next general elections, in 2014, draw closer.

Four separate exit polls commissioned by television news channels ABP News, Times Now, News 24 and Headlines Today said the BJP was likely to win between 118 and 140 seats, the Congress party a distant second with between 40 to 59 seats. The newly-formed Gujarat Parivartan Party, headed by former BJP leader and known Modi baiter Keshubhai Patel, may get only 2 to 4 seats, failing to make any dent in the BJP’s or Mr. Modi’s armor. Last time around, in 2007, the BJP had won 117 seats against the Congress’s 59.

Advertisement

If these results are confirmed, on Thursday, when the results are unveiled, the BJP looks set for its fourth successive victory in this western Indian state.

While the BJP’s victory was largely taken for granted by many –Congress top leaders Sonia Gandhi and her son, Rahul, as well as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh campaigned in the state only towards the end – many have their eyes set on the BJP’s margin of victory. They want to know whether the BJP under Mr. Modi will be able to win more seats in Gujarat than it did in 2007, at the last state elections. If the margin is significantly wider, the likelihood of Mr. Modi’s becoming the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate increases, experts say.

The elections have been less about Gujarat than about him personally, about whether he has what it takes to get the country’s top job.

Supporters point to rapid economic growth in Gujarat. Gross domestic product in the state has grown at an average of 9.59% in the five years to March 31, 2012, compared to the national average of 7.9%, according to government data. India as a whole could benefit from Mr. Modi’s approach, especially at a time when the country’s economic growth has significantly slowed down. Gujarat is home to several of India’s largest industrial projects, including the world’s largest oil refinery, run by Reliance Industries Ltd., and Tata Motors’ factory for its Nano mini-car.

Critics point to his links with Hindu right-wing groups and his administration’s failure to stop communal violence in his state in 2002 that killed over 1,000 people, mostly Muslim. This, they say, makes him unfit to lead a state, let alone a country as diverse as India. Mr. Modi has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. He has tried to win over more of Gujarat’s Muslims through initiatives like last year’s three-day public fast for social harmony.

Mr. Modi himself has never publicly stated his ambition to become prime minister. But senior BJP politicians – including Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and L.K. Advani – have publicly backed his possible candidacy.

But divisions remain within his party. “Mr. Modi will surely emerge the tallest among BJP leaders. This will surely bolster his claim for being the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate but whether he will be accepted within the party and among allies is highly debatable,” said Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst with the Center for Study of Developing Societies, a Delhi-based research institute.

There may also be opposition from other parties in the National Democratic Alliance, the BJP-led center-right wing coalition. “My impression is that he will not be acceptable. Other political parties in the NDA are not prepared to go with a person whom not a single Muslim will vote for” as candidate for the post of prime minister, said Prem Shankar Jha, a political analyst and columnist.

Current BJP allies such as the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party are staunchly against him as a PM candidate because of his alleged links to the 2002 communal riots. Putting Mr. Modi as the BJP’s candidate for Prime Minister, may push these parties in the hands of the rival Congress party-led alliance. Officials at both parties couldn’t be reached for a comment.

About India Real Time

India Real Time offers analysis and insights into the broad range of developments in business, markets, the economy, politics, culture, sports, and entertainment that take place every single day in the world’s largest democracy. Regular posts from Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires reporters around the country provide a unique take on the main stories in the news, shed light on what else mattered and why, and give global readers a snapshot of what Indians have been talking about all week. You can contact the editors at indiarealtime(at)wsj(dot)com.