GOP's 'Class of '94' may prove hard to beat

Helen DewarThe Washington Post

Published Sunday, October 29, 2000

Once the prime target of Democrats, the conservative Republican ''revolutionaries'' who were first elected in 1994 have learned survival politics and are giving the GOP a clear edge in the battle for control of the Senate.

Although they continue to champion conservative causes, such as tax cuts and smaller government, most of these once-vulnerable first-termers have shed their hard-edged ideology and adapted to today's mellower political mood. Many are trying to seize the initiative on such traditional Democratic issues as education and Social Security.

As a result, with little more than a week remaining before Election Day, only one of the nine ''Class of '94'' Republicans -- Minnesota Sen. Rod Grams, who has done the least to change his message -- is trailing in independent polls.

Of the other three who appeared most in trouble as the year began, Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has taken a solid lead over Rep. Ron Klink, D in polls. Missouri Sen. John D. Ashcroft, who had been locked in a close race with Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan until Carnahan was killed in a plane crash this month, is favored but could be faced with a strong sympathy vote in favor of the appointment of Carnahan's widow. Michigan Sen. Spencer Abraham has been leading Rep. Deborah Ann Stabenow, D, though the race has tightened recently.

''The Class of '94 may come out largely unscathed,'' said Jennifer E. Duffy, who monitors Senate campaigns for the Cook Political Report. ''Grams could be the only member of the class who loses.''

Some of the Senate GOP's more senior members appear to be in the most trouble, including Finance Committee Chairman William V. Roth Jr. of Delaware, Slade Gorton of Washington and Conrad Burns of Montana, according to observers of the campaigns. And no GOP seat is in greater jeopardy than that of retiring Florida Sen. Connie Mack, where Rep. Bill McCollum, R, one of the House managers in last year's impeachment trial of President Clinton, has consistently trailed state Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson, D.

Republicans start with a 54-46 advantage in the Senate. Democrats, who stand to lose one or two of the seats they hold, must make a net gain of five seats to get a majority. Democrats would have to retain the endangered seat of Virginia Sen. Charles S. Robb and most of the seats left vacant by retiring Democrats, pick up the Florida seat, and knock off most of the seriously vulnerable GOP incumbents to win a majority.

A review of the races as they stood last week points to the likelihood of a Democratic gain of one to three seats, an assessment shared by the Cook Report's Duffy and by Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes a newsletter on political races. They said Democrats have only a long-shot chance to win a majority.

Democrats are more optimistic. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert G. Torricelli, N.J., predicted last week that his party will wind up with 48 to 51 seats, with control being determined by outcomes in Montana, Virginia and Michigan.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Mitch McConnell, Ky., refuses to talk numbers but said he is confident the GOP will retain control, marking the first time since the 1920s that Republicans have controlled the Senate for four consecutive congresses.

Odds favor a more closely divided Senate, which could pose serious difficulties for the next president. The Senate could also include a former first lady for the first time if Hillary Rodham Clinton defeats Rep. Rick Lazio, R, in New York, as polls indicate she may do. If high-tech millionaire Maria Cantwell defeats Gorton in Washington state, the Senate would get its first Internet entrepreneur.

Of the 34 seats at stake Nov. 7, 19 are held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats, putting the GOP at somewhat greater risk. About a dozen seats are regarded as being competitive, half of them highly so. More Republican than Democratic seats fall in the most competitive category.

Although Republicans continue to have an edge in fundraising, Democrats have unusually successful in the money chase and say they're financially competitive in all states except Pennsylvania. Moreover, several top candidates -- Jon S. Corzine in New Jersey, Mark Dayton in Minnesota and Cantwell -- are so wealthy they can pump millions of dollars into their own campaigns, freeing party resources for other races.

But Democrats have been plagued by problems, starting with their relatively large number of retirements in competitive states (four, compared with one for the GOP) and with Carnahan's death. Even Vice President Al Gore's choice of Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Conn.) as his running mate presented problems. If the Gore-Lieberman ticket is elected, the Republican governor of Connecticut will chose his replacement in the Senate.

From the start, Democrats have pinned their hopes on the first-termers who got a big bump six years ago from an angry anti-Washington mood that put the GOP in control of both houses of Congress for the first time in decades. They recall that Democrats last reclaimed control of the Senate in 1986 after a similar surge in 1980. But McConnell sees no parallels with 1986. ''The Class of '94 was a much stronger group of politicians than the Class of '80,'' he said recently.

Others say this group's agility in adjusting to changing times is the crucial difference, noting that Republicans such as Abraham, Ashcroft and Santorum are campaigning as champions of education, preservers of Medicare and Social Security, and advocates of new initiatives such as prescription drug coverage for the elderly.

In addition to Florida, the best prospect for Democrats is Minnesota, where Dayton, a wealthy department store heir, is running ahead of Grams, who has been afflicted by family and campaign staff problems as well as an unreconstructed image as an ideologue.

Democrats are also looking to Delaware, where age has become an issue in the 79-year-old Roth's race against Gov. Thomas R. Carper, 53; to Washington, where Cantwell is nipping at Gorton's heels; and to Montana, where rancher Brian Schweitzer is closing in on Burns. They are increasingly optimistic about Michigan. Missouri appears to be in flux.

Republicans' best opportunity is in Nevada, where former representative John Ensign has a strong lead for a Democratic-held open seat. They have also been counting on former Virginia governor George Allen to defeat Robb, although a new Washington Post poll shows Robb has closed the gap.

Republicans hold out hope for Lazio in New York and Rep. Bob Franks in New Jersey. But Franks would have to overcome the millions of dollars -- expected to set a national record at more than $50 million -- that Corzine, a former Wall Street executive, will have pumped from his own wallet into his primary and general election campaigns. Recent polls showed Corzine leading, although the margin has narrowed.

Republicans are also eyeing an open Democratic-held seat in Nebraska, where former governor Ben Nelson, D, leads state Attorney General Don Stenberg, R, although the state leans toward the GOP and Nelson lost despite a big early lead to now-Sen. Chuck Hagel, R, four years ago.

In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee, R, campaigning in the same moderate mold as his father, the late Sen. John H. Chafee, is running well ahead of Rep. Robert A. Weygand, D, despite the state's heavily Democratic tilt.