Monday, May 31, 2010

In Charleston, South Carolina in 1865 Freedmen (freed slaves) celebrated at the Washington Race Course (today the location of Hampton Park). The site had been used as a temporary Confederate prison camp for captured Union soldiers in 1865, as well as a mass grave for Union soldiers who died there. Immediately after the cessation of hostilities, Freedmen exhumed the bodies from the mass grave and reinterred them properly with individual graves. They built a fence around the graveyard with an entry arch and declared it a Union graveyard. On May 1, 1865, a crowd of up to ten thousand, mainly black residents, including 2800 children, proceeded to the location for events that included sermons, singing, and a picnic on the grounds, thereby creating the first Decoration Day. - this from Wikipedia

I'm surprised to see Greg Mankiw endorsing Robert Samuelson's column about measuring poverty (or at least pointing to it without comment as though he endorses it). Apparently Samuelson is worried that the new measurements might cause us to give more help to the poor. I guess in his view, the poor are getting all the help they need, but that's not how I see it.

Dean Baker responds to Samuelson:

Robert Samuelson's Cellphone Standard of Living, by Dean Baker: Robert Samuelson invokes the cellphone standard of living in his column today which complains about the Obama administration's adoption of a new measure of poverty as an alternative to the official standard. The administration will use both.

Samuelson argues that we have failed to pick up all the gains for the poor over the last four decades noting, among other things, that 48 percent of poor households own cellphones. Needless to say, the reduction in price of many products in recent decades has made them accessible in ways that would not have been possible in the recent past, but it is not clear how much this tells us about living standards.

In China, there are more than 600 million cell phones in use. This means that roughly the same percentage of people in China have cell phones as do poor people in the United States. China's per capita income on a purchasing power parity basis is less than one-sixth as high as per capita income in the United States. By Samuelson's cell phone standard of living the average person in China has the same standard of living as do poor people in the United States.

There are a couple of other points worth noting about Samuleson's diatribe. The Obama administration did not just invent the measure that Samuelson denounces as a "propaganda device." This is a measure developed by the National Academies of Science based on research by many of the country's leading poverty experts. It is fine to criticize the measure, but Samuelson should have at least noted its origins.

Finally, Samuelson reports on research from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) that shows that spending on the poor from all sources may be as much as double their reported income. It is worth noting that much of this spending involves Medicaid expenditures...

I think it's pretty slimy to act like the new measure is an invention of the Obama administration that will be used to implement a political agenda. Complaints about the existing measure are long-standing, and there was considerable pressure on George Bush to change the measure. But since it might have shown an increase in poverty -- something his administration wanted to avoid -- he refused. If you want an example of political manipulation, that was it. The Bush administration refused to use more accurate statistics because it might reflect poorly (pun intended) on the administration. And he wasn't the only president to make this choice. The problems with the measure have been evident for the last four decades, and this is the first president willing to consider making a new measure official:

Where's the Poverty Line?: ...So why hasn't such an important statistic been updated...? The answer is politics. ... the poverty indicator, unlike many other economic statistics, is not under the jurisdiction of an authoritative statistical agency like the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Instead, it resides in perhaps the most political place of all: the office of the president. And during the last four decades, no president of either party has wanted to draw attention to [the] statistic ..., especially if updating it might cause the number of people regarded as living in poverty to increase. ...

Samuelson doesn't tell us that other presidents have refused to update the measure (and why), instead he makes it seem like this is an invention of the current administration. He says:

The new indicator is a "propaganda device" to promote income redistribution by showing that poverty is stubborn or increasing, says the Heritage Foundation's Robert Rector. He has a point.

The propaganda device is Samuelson's column, not the adoption of the new poverty measure. The current administration's willingness to consider updating the measure should bring Samuelson's respect if he had something other than a political agenda as the goal of the column

Here's another reaction:

You can’t be poor if you own a cellphone, by Jamelle Bouie: Robert Samuelson invokes a familiar canard in his column complaining about the Obama administration’s choice to use a new definition of poverty developed by the National Academies of Science:

The official poverty measure obscures this by counting only pre-tax cash income and ignoring other sources of support. ... Although many poor live hand-to-mouth, they’ve participated in rising living standards. In 2005, 91 percent had microwaves, 79 percent air conditioning and 48 percent cellphones. [Emphasis mine]

With microwaves, air conditioning and cell phones, it’s clear that poor people aren’t nearly as poor as we think they are! I mean, it’s not as if poverty is concentrated in the nation’s two warmest regions — the South and the West — where air conditioning is a necessity, and it’s not as if cell phones are a cheaper alternative to landlines, and critical to navigating the world of low-wage service jobs. I guess you could call microwaves luxuries, but even that’s ignoring the fact that the are for more likely to consume frozen and prepared foods that need microwaving.

So in Samuelson’s column, what you have is another attempt to minimize the actual poverty of poor people by pointing to items that are actually necessary to surviving in low-wage service economy. Indeed, by the end of the piece, Samuelson is a step away from lamenting that the new poverty measures will force the government to do more to combat poverty, as if what we do now is adequate. Of course, given Samuelson’s routine Hooverism — “deficits are more important than everything else!” — and his disdain for Social Security and Medicare, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

Let's move on to more accurate assessments of the new measure. Here's a report from Nancy Folbre, someone who doesn't come to the problem with Samuelson's biases, on the new measure:

A Rich New Poverty Measure, by Nancy Folbre: The Census Bureau recently announced plans to develop a new Supplemental Poverty Measure (S.P.M.), also referred to as a Supplemental Income Poverty Measure (SIPM). ...

Most of us dislike the official poverty lines used to determine who, exactly, qualifies as poor. Most of us can recite at least five reasons why these measures (based on a mid-1960s assessment of the costs of a minimal food budget) are narrow, out of date and downright misleading.

Most of us can also expound on how current methods of measuring poverty make it difficult, if not impossible, to accurately assess the impact of anti-poverty policies.

Food assistance administered through the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) has been a mainstay of our safety net during the current recession. But since food stamps are not income, they don’t show up in our income-based poverty measures.

The Earned Income Tax Credit (E.I.T.C.) is our largest cash-assistance program other than unemployment insurance in this recession. Our poverty measures are based on pre-tax, rather than after-tax, income. So, by definition, the E.I.T.C. does not reduce poverty.

It’s hard to find anyone more passionate about these inconsistencies than Professor Timothy Smeeding, current director of the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin. ... He is thrilled that the new measure will take near-cash benefits and taxes into account to supplement conventional poverty measures.

He emphasizes its other innovations: poverty thresholds will be linked to accurate measures of expenditures on food, shelter, clothing and utilities, rather than just food. It will subtract some work-related costs, such as the child-care expenditures of employed parents, to better capture disposable income.

Professor Smeeding concedes that the measure has some kinks in it that will need to be worked out, including better estimates of out-of-pocket health care expenses and differences in regional costs of living.

I’m worried about other factors that affect family living standards, like the costs and benefits of unpaid care of dependents.

Curious about other criticisms, I reached out to Shawn Fremstad of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, also on his way to the discussion at the Brookings Institution.

In his view, the SIPM sets its thresholds too low, excluding many struggling families from the category of poverty. Mr. Fremstad also warns that adopting the new measure by itself could sideline efforts to develop more complete measures of basic economic security that would include consideration of family wealth as well as income.

I’m not yet sure where I stand. As Professor Smeeding reminded me, the perfect can be the enemy of the good. This new measure, whatever its limitations, represents a rich addition to our statistical infrastructure. ...

Samuelson objects to the use of relative poverty measures. He wants an absolute standard. So long as people aren't starving in the streets and have clothes to wear, no matter how ragged, they are not poor.

It's true people don't literally starve on the streets anymore, but is that our goal as a society? I think a relative standard that says that people who, because of their incomes, cannot participate fully in society are poor. A child getting enough to eat, and with clothes to wear, who cannot afford the toys needed to be part of the group of kids in the neighborhood is socially isolated and socially disadvantaged (we don't want to play at your house because you don't have a TV, you can't come with us because you don't have a bike, you didn't get my text message about baseball practice being moved?, etc., etc., etc.). Giving people, children in particular, what they need to participate in the society around them is an important element of how successful they will be in the future. It helps to determine their ability to give back to society as fully participating adults.

Why do people like Samuelson object to helping the poor (in a relative poverty sense)? I think it's partly because they fail to recognize the social roots of poverty. They assume it is the poor's own fault that they ended up that way. They made bad choices, and that fact that they are barely getting by, the fact that their kids that will remain socially isolated, is the price that must be paid for those bad choices. If we bail them out like a big bank, how will they ever learn life's lessons?

The answer is that they know life's lessons all too well, certainly better than the Samuelsons of the world. Most of the poor are working poor, many working more than one job just to get by. To refuse to help the hardest working among us, those who toil at or near poverty to give the rest of us the products and services we desire at very low prices, is unconscionable.

The budget and inflation hawks are winning the battle to define the "conventional wisdom" over how policymakers should respond now that the economy is just setting out on the long road to recovery. The wisdom may be conventional, but it is not very wise:

The Pain Caucus, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: What’s the greatest threat to our still-fragile economic recovery? Dangers abound... But what I currently find most ominous is the spread of a destructive idea: the view that now, less than a year into a weak recovery from the worst slump since World War II, is the time for policy makers to stop helping the jobless and start inflicting pain.

When the financial crisis first struck, most of the world’s policy makers responded appropriately, cutting interest rates and allowing deficits to rise. And by doing the right thing, by applying the lessons learned from the 1930s, they managed to limit the damage: It was terrible, but it wasn’t a second Great Depression.

Now, however, demands that governments switch from supporting their economies to punishing them have been proliferating in op-eds, speeches and reports from international organizations. Indeed, the idea that what depressed economies really need is even more suffering seems to be the new conventional wisdom...

The extent to which inflicting economic pain has become the accepted thing was driven home to me by the ... Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development... The O.E.C.D. is a deeply cautious organization; what it says at any given time virtually defines that moment’s conventional wisdom. And what the O.E.C.D. is saying right now is that policy makers should stop promoting economic recovery and instead begin raising interest rates and slashing spending.

What’s particularly remarkable ... is that ... the O.E.C.D.’s own forecasts show no hint of an inflationary threat. So why raise rates? The answer, as best I can make it out, is that the organization believes that we must worry ... that markets might start expecting inflation, even though they shouldn’t and currently don’t...

A similar argument is used to justify fiscal austerity. Both textbook economics and experience say that slashing spending when you’re still suffering from high unemployment is a really bad idea — not only does it deepen the slump, but it does little to improve the budget outlook, because much of what governments save by spending less they lose as a weaker economy depresses tax receipts. And the O.E.C.D. predicts that high unemployment will persist for years. Nonetheless, the organization demands both that governments cancel any further plans for economic stimulus and that they begin “fiscal consolidation” next year.

Why do this? Again, to give markets something they shouldn’t want and currently don’t. Right now, investors don’t seem at all worried about the solvency of the U.S. government; the interest rates on federal bonds are near historic lows. ...

The best summary I’ve seen of all this comes from Martin Wolf..., who describes the new conventional wisdom as being that “giving the markets what we think they may want in future — even though they show little sign of insisting on it now — should be the ruling idea in policy.”

Put that way, it sounds crazy. And it is. Yet it’s a view that’s spreading. And it’s already having ugly consequences. Last week conservative members of the House, invoking the new deficit fears, scaled back a bill extending aid to the long-term unemployed — and the Senate left town without acting on even the inadequate measures that remained. As a result, many American families are about to lose unemployment benefits, health insurance, or both — and as these families are forced to slash spending, they will endanger the jobs of many more.

And that’s just the beginning. More and more, conventional wisdom says that the responsible thing is to make the unemployed suffer. And while the benefits from inflicting pain are an illusion, the pain itself will be all too real.

Well, well, our old friend The Pope is up to his old tricks ("tricks" -- hmmmm, there HAS to be a pun or joke there -- no?)

Pope 'failed to defrock priest despite being asked to by bishop'The Pope is facing new accusations that he failed to defrock a priest who had confessed to molesting young boys despite being asked to do so by a bishop.

By Nick Allen in Los AngelesPublished: 9:45PM BST 30 May 2010Pope 'failed to defrock priest despite being asked to by bishop'

The case involved an American priest, the late Rev Alvin Campbell, who was sentenced to 14 years in prison in 1985 for abusing seven boys.

After he was jailed Bishop Daniel Ryan of the diocese of Springfield, Illinois, wrote to Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the future pope, asking for Campbell to be defrocked immediately, instead of going through a church trial which would be harrowing for victims.

But Cardinal Ratzinger turned down the bishop's plea because the abuser himself refused to agree to it.

According to documents obtained by the Associated Press from court records, the cardinal wrote on July 3, 1989: "The petition in question cannot be admitted in as much as it lacks the request of Father Campbell himself." The decision was in keeping with church law at the time and provides the latest evidence of how the system frustrated US bishops struggling to root out abuse.

Several decades old cases have recently emerged raising questions about decisions taken by Cardinal Ratzinger's office in abuse cases. The Vatican has denounced what it calls a campaign to smear the pope and his aides.

Campbell had been an Army chaplain but left after abusing at least one boy.

He then became a pastor in Illinois and began plying boys with video games, bicycles, watches and other gifts before abusing them.

He was released after serving half his jail sentence in 1992, and was eventually convinced by priests in his diocese to accept defrocking without a church trial.

David Clohessy, director of the Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests, said: "Ratzinger chose to put concerns about dangerous paedophiles and the church's reputation above concerns about children's safety."

Jeffrey Lena, the Vatican's lawyer in the US, said the church's legal system had been designed to protect the innocent, as well as punish the guilty, and had since been improved.

Rev Tom Doyle, a canon lawyer who reviewed the Campbell case, said: "The practice had been not to accept the petition unless the priest accepted." In March the Vatican denied claims that the Pope had failed in the 1990s to defrock Father Lawrence Murphy, another American priest, who was accused of molesting up to 200 deaf boys over several years

A Polar Bear for Every Zoo and a Drug Free Parliament by 2020By Marla SingerCreated 05/31/2010 - 08:48

Just occasionally there are those stories comprised of such self-evident moment (and perhaps more than a touch of such deliciously placed absurdity in the form of a Tina Turner theme song) as to render any attempt at comment redundant at best and destructive at worse. This, dear readers, is one of those occasions.

Promising a polar bear for the Reykjavik zoo, free towels at all swimming pools, a Disneyland theme park at the airport and a drug-free parliament by 2020, the newly formed Besti Flokkurinn (“The Best Party”) took the political establishment by surprise when it became the biggest party in Sunday’s municipal elections in the Icelandic capital, Reykjavik, securing six out of 15 seats in the new city council.

[…]

The Best Party in Reykjavik was established just half a year ago by a core group of comedians, actors and musicians....

[…]

According to the EUobserver, The new party ran their campaign under the slogan “Whatever Works"....

Memorial Day is a United States federal holiday observed on the last Monday of May (May 31 in 2010). Formerly known as Decoration Day, it commemorates U.S. soldiers who died while in the military service.[1] First enacted to honor Union soldiers of the American Civil War (it is celebrated near the day of reunification after the Civil War), it was expanded after World War I.

Late Night: BREAKING — British Petroleum to Sue Pelicans for Theft of Company AssetsBy: Thers Saturday May 29, 2010 8:01 pm

BATON ROUGE — British Petroleum, whose Deepwater Horizon crude oil extraction facility has historically done so much to liberate America from a debilitating reliance upon petroleum products provided by swarthy, untrustworthy foreigners, today announced its decision to sue Louisiana-based brown pelicans in federal court for the theft of valuable company assets.

“Many people have seen the pictures of these so-called ‘victims’ in the main-stream media,” said Mr. Waldorf T. Flywheel, a spokesman for BP’s Legal Affairs Division, “and leap to entirely false conclusions. These felonious waterfowl are anything but the blameless sufferers of alleged corporate malfeasance Americans have been led to believe. Instead they are little more than common criminals — pelican pirates, if you will — deliberately immersing themselves in private property in an attempt to abscond with it.”

Asked where the pelicans might be plotting to purvey the purloined petroleum, Mr. Flywheel speculated, “probably Venezuela. That would just totally figure.”

I just LOVE the "God Fearing Christians" -- the most dishonest, obscene, hypocrites this world has EVER seen. Then again, that very same thing can be said about EVERY "Priestly Class". Why these people exist confuses me almost every day.

You do not need a Priest, Pastor, Rabbi, Iman, Monk, etc., to believe in God. These people are just men and women -- usually men. They are as "sinful", as imperfect as the rest of us.

They should all deal with their own issues before attempting to "counsel" other people.

May 29, 2010Woman: Church Covered Up My Rape as TeenSays Deacon Impregnated Her in '97; Church Elders Blamed Her; Alleged Rapist Now Under Arrest; Pastor at Time Denies Cover-up

(CBS) A woman now living in Arizona alleges she was raped twice 13 years ago by a prominent member of her church at the time, the fundamentalist Trinity Baptist Church in Concord, N.H.

Tina Anderson says the rapes resulted in her becoming pregnant when she was only 15.

She also asserts church officials, led by its now former pastor, covered up the crime.

Ernest Willis was 38 and a church deacon when, authorities now say, he raped Anderson. He's been arrested on sexual assault charges.

Authorities are also probing Anderson's cover-up claim.

Anderson says when she came forward about the alleged rape and eventual pregnancy, church officials, led by now former pastor Chuck Phelps, blamed her. Anderson claims she was forced to stand in front of her congregation and apologize for getting pregnant, and write a letter asking Willis' wife for forgiveness.

She was later sent off to Colorado where, she says, she was forced to give up the baby for adoption.

The case was reopened this year after online posts and friends led police Anderson.

In a gripping interview with co-anchor Chris Wragge on "The Early Show on Saturday Morning," Anderson added that the former church officials are still blaming her - and said she fears they would do the same thing to someone else. She also said they tried to "brainwash" her to make believe it really was her fault.

Willis is out on bail and has another court appearance slated for June 16.

Police have said their 1997 investigation was shelved because they couldn't locate the victim, and they are now investigating how much church leaders knew about the allegations.

Phelps says he reported the rape allegations to police and child welfare officials within a day of hearing about them from Anderson at the time and did nothing to conceal her whereabouts. He said he also told Willis he was calling the police and advised him to turn himself in.

"I never once got a call from the Concord police. ... They simply didn't do anything. This is unconscionable, what's happening to the Church here and to my reputation," Phelps, now a pastor in Indianapolis, said Thursday.

Phelps also contends it was Anderson's mother who decided to move her to Colorado, while his role consisted of helping find a family for her to live with.

Anderson told Wragge she was "in complete shock when I got the call" from police when the probe was re-opened. "I never expected it. And it's been very tough. It's been very emotional and very overwhelming to go through it all again.

Anderson says she thinks, "Justice will be served when (Willis) has his day in court and when he goes to prison. I think that should have happened a long time ago."

But, she added, she thinks, "There are other issues that also need to be addressed in this story, as well.

"Chuck Phelps and Matt Olson did a lot to systemically brainwash me and make me believe this was my fault, to cover things and make people believe that it wasn't Ernie's baby, to make -- even Chuck Phelps' wife, when we came forward, asked me if I enjoyed it when it happened. And it's not OK.

"Matt Olson made me write a letter to Ernie Willis' wife asking for forgiveness for betraying her trust."

All in all, Anderson says, "I'm sad. I'm very sad and I'm heartbroken and I think it's not OK. It's not OK to make victims believe it's their fault. And I think I'm sad because I know they don't think they did anything wrong. They still don't believe that. They still blame me. And I think they'd do to another girl."

If you or someone you know is a victim of abuse, rape or incest, you can get help at the Rape Abuse and Incest National Network.

Obesity: The House voted to give the Pentagon an extra $60 billion and force it to buy F-35 plane engines that it neither needs nor wants. The Senate, meanwhile, voted down $24 billion in health insurance subsidies for the unemployed, cut extended unemployment benefits, and dropped matching funds for state-run health programs. GE has better lobbyists than the disenfranchised.

Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, Nevada, was closed today by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with City National Bank, Los Angeles, California, to assume all of the deposits of Sun West Bank.

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the seven branches of Sun West Bank will reopen on Tuesday as branches of City National Bank. Depositors of Sun West Bank will automatically become depositors of City National Bank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers of Sun West Bank should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice from City National Bank that it has completed systems changes to allow other City National Bank branches to process their accounts as well.

This evening and over the weekend, depositors of Sun West Bank can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of March 31, 2010, Sun West Bank had approximately $360.7 million in total assets and $353.9 million in total deposits. City National Bank will pay the FDIC a premium of 0.67 percent to assume all of the deposits of Sun West Bank. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, City National Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and City National Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on $280.0 million of Sun West Bank's assets. City National Bank will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers. For more information on loss share, please visit: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/lossshare/index.html.

Customers who have questions about today's transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-800-523-8089. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Pacific Daylight Time (PDT); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., PDT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., PDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., PDT. Due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the phone number only will be operational from 8 a.m. to 12 noon PDT on that day. Interested parties also can visit the FDIC's Web site at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/swbnevada.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $96.7 million. City National Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to all alternatives. Sun West Bank is the 78th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Nevada. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, on February 26, 2010.

Granite Community Bank, N.A., Granite Bay, California, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Tri Counties Bank, Chico, California, to assume all of the deposits of Granite Community Bank, N.A.

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the three branches of Granite Community Bank, N.A. will reopen on Tuesday as branches of Tri Counties Bank. Depositors of Granite Community Bank, N.A. will automatically become depositors of Tri Counties Bank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Customers of Granite Community Bank, N.A. should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice from Tri Counties Bank that it has completed systems changes to allow other Tri Counties Bank branches to process their accounts as well.

This evening and over the weekend, depositors of Granite Community Bank, N.A. can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of March 31, 2010, Granite Community Bank, N.A. had approximately $102.9 million in total assets and $94.2 million in total deposits. Tri Counties Bank did not pay the FDIC a premium for the deposits of Granite Community Bank, N.A. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, Tri Counties Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and Tri Counties Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on $89.3 million of Granite Community Bank, N.A.'s assets. Tri Counties Bank will share in the losses on the asset pools covered under the loss-share agreement. The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers. For more information on loss share, please visit: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/lossshare/index.html.

Customers who have questions about today's transaction can call the FDIC toll-free at 1-800-523-8173. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Pacific Daylight Time (PDT); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., PDT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., PDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., PDT. Due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the phone number only will be operational from 8 a.m. to 12 noon PDT on that day. Interested parties also can visit the FDIC's Web site at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/graniteca.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $17.3 million. Tri Counties Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to all alternatives. Granite Community Bank, N.A. is the 77th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the sixth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was 1st Pacific Bank of California, San Diego, on May 7, 2010.

EverBank, Jacksonville, Florida, acquired the banking operations, including all the deposits, of three Florida-based institutions. To protect depositors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with EverBank.

Bank of Florida – Southeast, Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Bank of Florida – Southwest, Naples, Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, Tampa, Florida, were all closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. The three failed banks were owned by the same holding company, Bank of Florida Corporation, which was not part of this transaction.

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, all the branches of the three closed banks will reopen as branches of EverBank under their normal business hours on Tuesday. Depositors will automatically become depositors of EverBank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Bank of Florida – Southeast has six branches in Florida; Bank of Florida - Southwest has five branches in Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay has two branches in Florida.

Customers of the three failed banks should continue to use their former branches until they receive notice from EverBank that it has completed systems changes to allow other EverBank branches to process their accounts as well. Over the weekend, depositors can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of March 31, 2010, Bank of Florida - Southeast had total assets of $595.3 million and total deposits of $531.7 million; Bank of Florida - Southwest had total assets of $640.9 million and total deposits of $559.9 million; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay had total assets of $245.2 million and total deposits of $224.0 million. Besides assuming all the deposits from the three Florida banks, EverBank will purchase essentially all of their assets.

The FDIC and EverBank entered into loss-share transactions on all three of the failed banks' assets. For Bank of Florida – Southeast the loss-share transaction was $437.3 million; for Bank of Florida – Southwest, $568.1 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $210.8 million.

The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers. For more information on loss share, please visit: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/lossshare/index.html.

Customers who have questions about today's transactions can call the FDIC toll free: for Bank of Florida – Southeast customers, 1-800-894-2927; for Bank Florida - Southwest customers, 1-800-894-2810; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay customers, 1-800-894-3199. The phone numbers will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m. EDT; on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT; on Sunday from noon until 6:00 p.m. EDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. EDT. Due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the phone numbers only will be operational from 8 a.m. to 12 noon EDT on that day.

Interested parties also can visit the FDIC's Web site: for Bank of Florida - Southeast, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridase.html; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridasw.html; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridatb.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for Bank of Florida - Southeast will be $71.4 million; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, $91.3 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $40.3 million. EverBank's acquisition of all the deposits of the three institutions was the "least costly" option for the DIF compared to all alternatives.

The three closings bring the total number of failed banks in the nation so far this year to 76 and the total in Florida to 13. Prior to today, the last bank closed in the state was Bank of Bonifay, Bonifay, on May 7, 2010.

EverBank, Jacksonville, Florida, acquired the banking operations, including all the deposits, of three Florida-based institutions. To protect depositors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with EverBank.

Bank of Florida – Southeast, Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Bank of Florida – Southwest, Naples, Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, Tampa, Florida, were all closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. The three failed banks were owned by the same holding company, Bank of Florida Corporation, which was not part of this transaction.

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, all the branches of the three closed banks will reopen as branches of EverBank under their normal business hours on Tuesday. Depositors will automatically become depositors of EverBank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Bank of Florida – Southeast has six branches in Florida; Bank of Florida - Southwest has five branches in Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay has two branches in Florida.

Customers of the three failed banks should continue to use their former branches until they receive notice from EverBank that it has completed systems changes to allow other EverBank branches to process their accounts as well. Over the weekend, depositors can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of March 31, 2010, Bank of Florida - Southeast had total assets of $595.3 million and total deposits of $531.7 million; Bank of Florida - Southwest had total assets of $640.9 million and total deposits of $559.9 million; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay had total assets of $245.2 million and total deposits of $224.0 million. Besides assuming all the deposits from the three Florida banks, EverBank will purchase essentially all of their assets.

The FDIC and EverBank entered into loss-share transactions on all three of the failed banks' assets. For Bank of Florida – Southeast the loss-share transaction was $437.3 million; for Bank of Florida – Southwest, $568.1 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $210.8 million.

The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers. For more information on loss share, please visit: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/lossshare/index.html.

Customers who have questions about today's transactions can call the FDIC toll free: for Bank of Florida – Southeast customers, 1-800-894-2927; for Bank Florida - Southwest customers, 1-800-894-2810; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay customers, 1-800-894-3199. The phone numbers will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m. EDT; on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT; on Sunday from noon until 6:00 p.m. EDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. EDT. Due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the phone numbers only will be operational from 8 a.m. to 12 noon EDT on that day.

Interested parties also can visit the FDIC's Web site: for Bank of Florida - Southeast, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridase.html; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridasw.html; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridatb.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for Bank of Florida - Southeast will be $71.4 million; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, $91.3 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $40.3 million. EverBank's acquisition of all the deposits of the three institutions was the "least costly" option for the DIF compared to all alternatives.

The three closings bring the total number of failed banks in the nation so far this year to 76 and the total in Florida to 13. Prior to today, the last bank closed in the state was Bank of Bonifay, Bonifay, on May 7, 2010

EverBank, Jacksonville, Florida, acquired the banking operations, including all the deposits, of three Florida-based institutions. To protect depositors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with EverBank.

Bank of Florida – Southeast, Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Bank of Florida – Southwest, Naples, Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, Tampa, Florida, were all closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. The three failed banks were owned by the same holding company, Bank of Florida Corporation, which was not part of this transaction.

Due to the Memorial Day holiday, all the branches of the three closed banks will reopen as branches of EverBank under their normal business hours on Tuesday. Depositors will automatically become depositors of EverBank. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage. Bank of Florida – Southeast has six branches in Florida; Bank of Florida - Southwest has five branches in Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay has two branches in Florida.

Customers of the three failed banks should continue to use their former branches until they receive notice from EverBank that it has completed systems changes to allow other EverBank branches to process their accounts as well. Over the weekend, depositors can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of March 31, 2010, Bank of Florida - Southeast had total assets of $595.3 million and total deposits of $531.7 million; Bank of Florida - Southwest had total assets of $640.9 million and total deposits of $559.9 million; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay had total assets of $245.2 million and total deposits of $224.0 million. Besides assuming all the deposits from the three Florida banks, EverBank will purchase essentially all of their assets.

The FDIC and EverBank entered into loss-share transactions on all three of the failed banks' assets. For Bank of Florida – Southeast the loss-share transaction was $437.3 million; for Bank of Florida – Southwest, $568.1 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $210.8 million.

The loss-share transaction is projected to maximize returns on the assets covered by keeping them in the private sector. The transaction also is expected to minimize disruptions for loan customers. For more information on loss share, please visit: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/lossshare/index.html.

Customers who have questions about today's transactions can call the FDIC toll free: for Bank of Florida – Southeast customers, 1-800-894-2927; for Bank Florida - Southwest customers, 1-800-894-2810; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay customers, 1-800-894-3199. The phone numbers will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m. EDT; on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT; on Sunday from noon until 6:00 p.m. EDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. EDT. Due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the phone numbers only will be operational from 8 a.m. to 12 noon EDT on that day.

Interested parties also can visit the FDIC's Web site: for Bank of Florida - Southeast, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridase.html; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridasw.html; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/bankoffloridatb.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for Bank of Florida - Southeast will be $71.4 million; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, $91.3 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $40.3 million. EverBank's acquisition of all the deposits of the three institutions was the "least costly" option for the DIF compared to all alternatives.

The three closings bring the total number of failed banks in the nation so far this year to 76 and the total in Florida to 13. Prior to today, the last bank closed in the state was Bank of Bonifay, Bonifay, on May 7, 2010.

No one seems to have any real idea of how to stop the massive oil well blowout in the Gulf.

Remember, IT IS NOT A LEAK!! It's a massive failure. An entire Deepsea Rig BLEW UP. ELEVEN people DIED! Now it's a disaster that might just rival CHERNOBYL!! An entire ecosystem might be destroyed for the foreseeable future. In addition, the Gulf Coast is a "nursery" for many different fish and birds.

We have no real idea of the ramifications of this mess.

No wonder EVERYONE seems to be downplaying it -- all the different "news outlets", the Gov't, the corporations, even the "Environmental Watchdogs" (you know, those folks who take BP's money).

This mess might be one of the worst disasters of all time.

Our oligarchs, our leaders, really do not want us to know how bad it really is -- we might ALL get seriously pissed off.

If the fundamentalist religious folks have their way, we are going to enter a new "Dark Ages" -- then again, with the current state of scientific knowledge by the general public, perhaps we already are in a new "Dark Ages".

There is too much general stupidity and magical thinking in the world.

An organization called Balanced Education for Everyone has gathered hundreds of signatures in support of a movement to ban the teaching of global warming in classrooms in Mesa County.

The signatures were presented at District 51's school board meeting Tuesday night by 40 people who dismissed global warming as "junk science." The petition is aimed at preventing teachers from imparting their "personal, political views in the classroom," Rose Pugliese, author of the petition, told the Grand Junction Sentinel.

Pugliese, who is described by the Denver Post as an "activist in Tea Party and conservative Republican groups," insists that there is "no evidence" to support global warming. Supporters of the petition say that, if global warming continues to be taught, "the other side" of the global warming issue should be presented as well.

The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Council--in a 2008 joint study--found that "the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to begin taking steps to prepare for climate change and to slow it."

School board members accepted the petition, but took no action. Proponents of the measure promised to check back at a later date, and threatened that failure to act on the petition would result in consequences at the next school board election."

This now joins the actions against evolution, vaccine use, and every other crackpot, "teabagger", anti-fact, "it's true BECAUSE I say so" idea around. If you indict the anti-science teabaggers, right-wing-crazies, and fundamentalists, you must also include the new age sorts -- those who delve in "auras", etc., etc., etc.

As an oldster who had measles, whooping cough, mumps, "german" measles, and damn near every other childhood disease around -- after having lost almost a full school year because of these diseases -- I do not think the folks of childbearing age these days quite understand how serious they can be. They were lucky enough to be around in the age when vaccines were available Survival was NOT assured when children were set upon by these diseases.

Heck, when I had all these diseases, antibiotics were not readily available. This was the tail end of WWII and just after.

So, now they just want to DENY what has become established scientific fact -- how absurdly selfish can these people be?

"It's for the children" has to join "The check's in the mail" and other such statements as among the worlds biggest lies. Most of these folks don't seem to be willing to give up anything "for the children".

I suspect they really do not LIKE children -- heck, the way they support beating them into submission proves that.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Congressional Budget OfficeDirector's Blog« An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2011 Shipbuilding PlanEstimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output

Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), also known as the economic stimulus package, certain recipients of funds appropriated in ARRA (most grant and loan recipients, contractors, and subcontractors) are required to report the number of jobs they created or retained with ARRA funding after the end of each calendar quarter. The law also requires CBO to comment on those reported numbers. Today CBO released a report to satisfy that requirement.

CBO’s Estimates of ARRA’s Impact on Employment and Economic Output

Looking at recorded spending to date as well as estimates of the other effects of ARRA on spending and revenues, CBO has estimated the law’s impact on employment and economic output using evidence about the effects of previous similar policies on the economy and using various mathematical models that represent the workings of the economy. On that basis, CBO estimates that in the first quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:

* Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.2 percent, * Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points, * Increased the number of people employed by between 1.2 million and 2.8 million, and * Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 1.8 million to 4.1 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)

The effects of ARRA on output and employment are expected to increase further during calendar year 2010 but then diminish in 2011 and fade away by the end of 2012.

Data on actual output and employment during the period since ARRA’s enactment are not as helpful in determining ARRA’s economic effects as might be supposed, because isolating those effects would require knowing what path the economy would have taken in the absence of the law. Because that path cannot be observed, there is no way to be certain about how the economy would have performed if the legislation had not been enacted, and data on its actual performance add only limited information about ARRA’s impact.

Limitations of Recipients’ Estimates

CBO’s estimates differ substantially from the reports filed by recipients of ARRA funding. Those recipients reported that ARRA funded nearly 700,000 FTE jobs during the first quarter of 2010. Such reports, however, do not provide a comprehensive estimate of the law’s impact on employment in the United States. That impact may be higher or lower than the reported number for several reasons (in addition to any issues about the quality of the data in the reports):

* Some of the reported jobs might have existed in the absence of the stimulus package, with employees working on the same activities or other activities. * The reports filed by recipients measure only the jobs created by employers who received ARRA funding directly or by their immediate subcontractors (so-called primary and secondary recipients), not by lower-level subcontractors. * The reports do not attempt to measure the number of jobs that may have been created or retained indirectly as greater income for recipients and their employees boosted demand for products and services. * The recipients’ reports cover only certain appropriations made in ARRA, which encompass about one-sixth of the total amount spent by the government or conveyed through tax reductions in ARRA during the first quarter; the reports do not measure the effects of other provisions of the stimulus package, such as tax cuts and transfer payments (including unemployment insurance payments) to individuals.

Consequently, estimating the law’s overall effects on employment requires a more comprehensive analysis than the recipients’ reports provide.

The report was prepared by Ben Page of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division.

A recent report from the Pew Charitable Trusts tallies up each US household's share in the economic collapse. Your household's share? $104,350. That includes lost income, government bailouts, and both reduced home values and reduced stock values.

Pew says:

" * Income - The financial crisis cost the U.S. an estimated $648 billion due to slower economic growth, as measured by the difference between the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) economic forecast made in September 2008 and the actual performance of the economy from September 2008 through the end of 2009. That equates to an average of approximately $5,800 in lost income for each U.S. household.

* Government Response - Federal government spending to mitigate the financial crisis through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) will result in a net cost to taxpayers of $73 billion according to the CBO. This is approximately $2,050 per U.S. household on average.

* Home Values - The U.S. lost $3.4 trillion in real estate wealth from July 2008 to March 2009 according to the Federal Reserve. This is roughly $30,300 per U.S. household. Further, 500,000 additional foreclosures began during the acute phase of the financial crisis than were expected, based on the September 2008 CBO forecast.

* Stock Values - The U.S. lost $7.4 trillion in stock wealth from July 2008 to March 2009, according to the Federal Reserve. This is roughly $66,200 on average per U.S. household.

* Jobs - 5.5 million more American jobs were lost due to slower economic growth during the financial crisis than what was predicted by the September 2008 CBO forecast."

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Defaults on apartment-building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter, almost twice the year-earlier level, as more borrowers failed to repay debt approved near the market peak, said Real Capital Analytics Inc. in a report.

Defaults on so-called multifamily mortgages rose from 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter and from 2.4 percent during the same period in 2009, the New York-based real estate research firm said today. Commercial-mortgage defaults also rose in the first quarter for loans against office, retail, hotel and industrial properties, Real Capital said.

“Apartment defaults are leading other commercial real estate,” Sam Chandan, global chief economist at Real Capital, said in an interview. “Banks tended to make more aggressively underwritten apartment loans earlier during this last cycle. Credit and pricing reached their peaks for office properties and other commercial assets later.”

The global recession cut demand for U.S. apartments, office space, retail shops, hotels and warehouses during the past two years as jobs disappeared and consumers cut spending. Defaults on apartment-building mortgages surpassed the previous record, set in 1993, for the past three consecutive quarters.

The U.S. savings-and-loan crisis drove apartment-building defaults to 3.4 percent in 1993. Defaults on other types of commercial property debt peaked at 4.6 percent in 1992, according to Real Capital.

The proportion of defaults on office, retail, hotel and industrial properties rose to 4.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, the company said.

U.S. apartments may lead a rebound in commercial real estate as vacancies peak in 2010 and the economy adds jobs, property research firm Reis Inc. said May 19. Reis estimates apartment vacancies will peak at 8.2 percent in 2010, the highest level since the firm began tracking the number in 1980. The number should start to decline in 2011, Reis said.

Real Capital bases its analysis on bank filings and data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hui-yong Yu in Seattle at hyu@bloomberg.net

AP - Thousands of heavily armed police and soldiers barged past barricades into the capital's most violent slums on Tuesday, clashing with die-hard defenders of a gang leader sought by the United Stat...# NKorea severs all ties with rival SKorea (AP) "- 3 hours ago"AP - North Korea declared Tuesday that it would sever all communication and relations with Seoul as punishment for blaming the North for the sinking of a South Korean warship two months ago.# Thailand charges ex-PM Thaksin with terrorism (AP) "- 1 hour ago"AP - Thai authorities accused ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of terrorism Tuesday, issuing an arrest warrant on charges that carry a possible death sentence for his alleged role in deadly st...# Divers explore sunken ruins of Cleopatra's palace (AP) "- 2 hours ago"AP - Plunging into the waters off Alexandria Tuesday, divers explored the submerged ruins of a palace and temple complex from which Cleopatra ruled, swimming over heaps of limestone blocks hammered in...# Iraq blames al-Qaida in gold robbery that kills 15 (AP) "- 2 hours ago"AP - Masked men armed with rocket-propelled grenades and assault rifles shot up a jewelry market in Baghdad Tuesday, killing 15 people before they fled with a large quantity of gold in an attack autho...# U.K.'s New Parliament Opens with Promises of Radical Reform (Time.com) "- 3 hours ago"Time.com - With the opening of its first session on Tuesday, Britain's new parliament proposed wide-ranging reforms meant to restore the public's faith in government. But the elaborate and symbolic ce...# German ex-soldiers to work in Somalia (AP) "- 1 hour ago"AP - A private security company's plan to deploy more than 100 German ex-soldiers to Somalia to work for a warlord has triggered intense media coverage and drew harsh criticism from lawmakers Tuesday,...# Yemen airstrike on al-Qaida hide-out, clash kill 6 (AP) "- "

# BP internal probe focuses on other companies' work (AP) "- 2 hours ago"AP - Oil giant BP said its internal investigation of the unchecked Gulf oil spill is largely focused on work done by other companies as a new government report Tuesday showed workers at the federal ag...# Jamaica police: 30 dead in battle with drug gang (AP) "- 1 hour ago"AP - Thousands of heavily armed police and soldiers barged past barricades into the capital's most violent slums on Tuesday, clashing with die-hard defenders of a gang leader sought by the United Stat...# Ex-Detroit mayor gets up to 5 years in prison (AP) "- 1 hour ago"AP - Former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick was sentenced to up to five years in prison Tuesday for violating the terms of his probation stemming from his conviction for lying under oath about an affai...# Gates agrees to proposal to repeal gay ban (AP) "- 2 hours ago"AP - Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Tuesday gave lukewarm support to a new White House-backed plan for a vote in Congress to immediately repeal the law that bans gays from serving openly in the mil...# APNewsBreak: Owner of chimp in Conn. attack dies (AP) "- 2 hours ago"AP - A Connecticut woman whose chimpanzee mauled and blinded her friend last year has died, her attorney said Tuesday.# Space shuttle Atlantis on last leg of last mission (AP) "- 2 hours ago"AP - Atlantis' homeward-bound astronauts paid tribute Tuesday to their space shuttle, close to winding up its final journey after a quarter-century of flight.# Bret Michaels says he's going back on the road (AP) "- 7 hours ago"AP - Bret Michaels is upbeat, despite his recent illnesses.# Michigan details football woes to NCAA (AP) "- 3 hours ago"

WHO IS Bret Michaels that he rates a headline next to "Euro slumps, Dow falls, etc., etc.

I also like the fact BP's "investigation" is focused on "other companies work". Is this an attempt to find out what happened? Is it an attempt to lay blame?

One of these days, it will be"Human Population Faces 'Tipping Point". We will do nothing.

Polar bears face 'tipping point'By Matt WalkerEditor, Earth News

Climate change will trigger a dramatic and sudden decline in the number of polar bears, a new study has concluded.

The research is the first to directly model how changing climate will affect polar bear reproduction and survival.

Based on what is known of polar bear physiology, behaviour and ecology, it predicts pregnancy rates will fall and fewer bears will survive fasting during longer ice-free seasons.

These changes will happen suddenly as bears pass a 'tipping point'.

Details of the research are published in the journal Biological Conservation.

Educated guesses

Until now, most studies measuring polar bear survival have relied on a method called "mark and recapture".We may not see any substantial effect on polar bear reproduction and survival until some threshold is passed. At that point reproduction and survival will decline dramatically and very rapidlyPeter Molnar University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada

This involves repeatedly catching polar bears in a population over several years, which is cost and time-intensive.

Because of that, the information scientists have gathered on polar bear populations varies greatly: for example, datasets span up to four decades in the best studied populations in Western Hudson Bay and Southern Beaufort Sea, but are almost non-existent for bears in some parts of Russia.

Even more difficult is measuring how survival and reproduction might change under future climatic conditions.

"Some populations are expected to go extinct with climate warming, while others are expected to persist, albeit at a reduced population size," says Dr Peter Molnar of the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.

However, these projections are essentially educated guesses, based on experts judging or extrapolating how current population trends might continue as the climate changes.

"So we've looked at the underlying mechanisms of polar bear ecology to assist our understanding of what will happen in a warming world," Dr Molnar told the BBC.

Fasting and mating

Dr Molnar, Professor Andrew Derocher and colleagues from the University of Alberta and York University, Toronto focused on the physiology, behaviour and ecology of polar bears, and how these might change as temperatures increase.

"We developed a model for the mating ecology of polar bears. The model estimates how many females in a population will be able to find a mate during the mating season, and thus get impregnated."

Male polar bears find females by wandering the ice, sniffing bear tracks they come across. If the tracks have been made by a female in mating condition, the male follows the tracks to her.

The researchers modelled how this behaviour would change as warming temperatures fragment sea ice.

As these ice-free seasons lengthen, fewer bears are expected to have enough fat and protein stores to survive the fast.

By developing a physiological model that estimates how fast a bear uses up its fat and protein stores, the researchers could estimate how long it takes a bear to die of starvation.

"In both cases, the expected changes in reproduction and survival were non-linear," explains Dr Molnar.

"That is, as the climate warms, we may not see any substantial effect on polar bear reproduction and survival for a while, up until some threshold is passed, at which point reproduction and survival will decline dramatically and very rapidly."

The US Endangered Species Act lists the polar bear as "Threatened".

The latest US assessment of the conservation status of polar bears included the only two previous studies to assess the impact of climate change, but these extrapolated population trends, rather than directly modelling how the ecology of polar bears may alter.

The new study by Dr Molnar's team offers a way to improve these predictions, and suggests the potential for even faster declines than those found by the US assessment.

"Canada has about two-thirds of the world's polar bears, but their conservation assessment of polar bears didn't take climate change seriously," says Dr Molnar, a flaw noted by the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group last year.

"Our view is that the Canadian assessment should be redone, properly accounting for climate change effects.

"The status of polar bears is likely much more dire than suggested by the Canadian report," he adds.

"For instance, for a while we will only see small changes in summer fasting season survival in Western Hudson Bay.

"[But] eventually mortality will dramatically increase when a certain threshold is passed; for example, while starvation mortality is currently negligible, up to one-half of the male population would starve if the fasting season in Western Hudson Bay was extended from currently four to about six months."

A state of emergency has been declared in parts of the Jamaican capital, Kingston, after violence broke out. What is your reaction?

Trouble began when the government announced it would arrest and extradite alleged druglord Christopher "Dudus" Coke to the US. His supporters set up barricades and said they would fight to protect him. Jamaican security forces moved in to the Tivoli Gardens district and a number of casualties have been reported.

Jamaica's Prime Minister Bruce Golding has denounced unrest as a "calculated assault on the authority of the state". But supporters of Mr Coke say he is a community leader who feeds and supports poor residents - and ensures their security.

Are you in Jamaica? What is your experience of the civil unrest? Do you support the decision to extradite Dudus Coke? Who is to blame for the troubles? How can Jamaica solve its problems? What should the government do next?

The utter poverty, the lack of a human rights agenda, the approval of extreme violence against people who are different, murdering gay folks while folks watch -- with, it appears, no concern -- that's what is causing the "unrest".

Jamaica is looking for a way to explode -- just murdering gay folks no longer relieves the pressure.

South Korea says it plans to refer North Korea to the UN Security Council, and is seeking a unified international response to the incident.'Puppet army gangs'

Tuesday's KCNA reports announcing the severing of all ties - including communications - said

Within a matter of days relations between the two Koreas have returned to the freezer.

The diplomatic goal now will be to ensure that a renewed cold war on the Korean peninsula does not generate into a hot conflict.

The United States is firmly backing South Korea but US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton - who has been in the Chinese capital Beijing as events unfolded - has failed to extract any public criticism of North Korea from the Chinese authorities.

Her hope will be that in private Beijing will tell Pyongyang in no uncertain terms that it should do nothing to inflame this crisis further.

"The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea... formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the North and the South and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation," KCNA reported.

Pyongyang has also accused South Korea of trespassing in its waters.

In a warning to South Korea's navy, a newsreader on North Korean state television (KRT) said: "South Korean puppet army gangs have been recently trespassing our territorial waters without restraint.

"They have conducted provocative acts which severely irritate us, by making dozens of warships intrude upon our waters from 14 to 24 May."

The newsreader said that if this "deliberate provocation" continued, the North would "put into force practical military measures to defend its waters".

North and South Korea are technically still at war after the Korean conflict ended without an armistice in 1953.

While there were hopes of a reconciliation a few years ago, relations have been deteriorating since then and now appear to be at their lowest point in a decade, correspondents say.Provocation

Amid the rising tensions, Seoul announced on Sunday it was ending trade relations with the North in response to the sinking of the Cheonan.

South Korea has also said it will drop propaganda leaflets into the North to tell people about the sinking, as well as setting up giant electronic billboards to flash messages---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATTACKS BLAMED ON NORTH KOREAContinue reading the main story A giant offshore crane salvages the bow section of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan off Baengnyeong Island, South Korea, file picture from 24 April 2010

It has resumed propaganda broadcasts to the North, playing radio programmes that will soon be broadcast via border loudspeakers.

The US, which has thousands of troops based in South Korea, has backed Seoul, condemning the incident and confirming late on Monday that it will hold joint anti-submarine naval exercises with South Korean forces.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the US and China must work together to "fashion an effective response" to the sinking of the Cheonan.

Speaking in Beijing, Mrs Clinton said maintaining peace on the Korean peninsula was "a shared responsibility" between the countries.

China has called for all sides to show restraint, adding its voice to calls for international co-operation over the incident.

Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said Beijing was "ready to work together with the US and other parties and continue to stay in close touch on the situation on the Korean peninsula".

On Tuesday Wu Dawei, China's special representative for Korean affairs, arrived in Seoul for talks with Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan.

Analysts say China's attitude is key, because it holds a veto in the Security Council and has in the past been reluctant to impose tough measures on Pyongyang.

It seems all the "SMALL-Government-States-Rights-PRO-GOD-GUNS-and-ANTI-GAYS-the-guy -in-the White-House-is-a-Communist-Socialist-Nazi-Kenyan-Illegal-Alien-etc., etc., etc." crap goes away when your entire economy is at risk because ONE CORPORATION FUCKED UP!

Now, the very same, "keep your government out of my state, pockets, etc." folks are YELLING about all the help the GOV'T MUST give them. Don't they trust the "Almighty Market", aided by the "Omnipotent Hand of God" to actually work? Are they afraid that by the time it DOES work, they will all have died untimely deaths? Are they frightened by the fact their coastlines will not "recover" for many, many, years? Does the fact most European Countries that have underwater drilling have far more stringent regulations still rankle as "Government Meddling"?

Sunday, May 23, 2010

New Jersey: Pastor Moises Cotto charged with forcing two underage girls to videotape him having sex with a female parishioner.New York: Youth Bible teacher Samuel W. Langley arrested for molesting a five year-old girl.Texas: Pastor Mark Stewart arrested for shooting another pastor over a construction contract dispute.Australia: Archbishop Philip Wilson accused of covering up crimes of pedophile priests.Illinois: Pastor Howard Richmond arrested for swindling $475K from parishioners.Missouri: Youth Pastor Jason A. Phillips charged with sexual assault on female minor.Indiana: Youth Pastor Johnny Eugene Butler charged with multiple counts of sexual misconduct with a female minor.New York: Father James J. McDevitt pleads guilty to two counts of molesting boys.Missouri: Pastor Danny O'Guin charged with multiple felony counts of defrauding elderly parishioners.Texas: Pastor Cornelius Hudson accused of defrauding an elderly couple out of their home.Massachusetts: Bishops Joseph F. Maguire and Thomas L Dupre will be sued in civil court for their roles in shielding a now convicted pedophile priest. Dupre has been been accused of child molestation as well.

This Week's WinnerBrazil: Father Marcin Strachanowski has been charged with running a "pedophile dungeon" where he organized orgies with underage boys. One victim, who reports having been handcuffed to the priest's bed, says Strachanowski warned him that if the police were notified, "I already know the flowers I will place on your coffin." The Archdiocese of Rio has expressed its "regret."

Officials Back to Gulf as Frustration on Spill SpreadsUnder increasing criticism for not moving more aggressively to halt the oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, President Obama sent three cabinet members...

By the way, do not minimize the artistry and ability of Sonny Stitt. He seems to have been overly criticized by some of the critics ("overly criticized" -- isn't that what critics do? Not always, sometimes they prostrate themselves before the anointed one, heaping praise, whether earned or not). Listen, make up your own mind.

I also left out such trumpet whizes like Nicholas Payton, Jon Faddis, Roy Eldridge, Roy Hargrove, Wynton Marsalis, Arturo Sandoval, etc. -- Search out their albums on line, sample some stuff, get what you like.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

The following are MY favorites. Some I've loved for years -- others I've been introduced to through various "100 best" lists. Some of those are a really good place to start -- but, I'm sure you will develop your own likes and dislikes.

These are not in any order -- it's neither descending nor ascending order -- I just listed them as I came across them on my Cd shelf. I do own every one of these CD's, and play them often.

and on, and on, and on. There is so much great stuff out there -- and I didn't even get into any of the "traditional jazz" guys, or some of the great players from the big band era -- like, say, Billy Butterfield. Didn't mention Fletcher Henderson, Lunceford, Sidney Bechet, barely touched on Django Reinhardt, or a ton of others. Do some exploring on your own -- it's a great way to forget (for a while) all the bad news cascading down on us all.

This is the insanity we have to deal with in the good old USA. There are still people here who minimize this crap, who think it's meaningless. Usually they are white liberals living in northeastern cities or suburbs. It appears they do not see the need to strongly oppose this sort of stuff -- I suspect they won't see that need until it begins to affect them directly.

More than 90 per cent of the world’s energy comes from non-renewable sources – and its decline can be projected on a Hubbert bell curve.

It’s just that we are more familiar with the concept of peak oil. After all, oil is the world’s largest source of energy, and the size and immediacy of the problem tends to overshadow debate on the remaining energy sources. But Hubbert’s model proves versatile, as the exploitation of any non-renewable resource – from oil to uranium – follows similar patterns.

Experts in the fields of coal, natural gas and nuclear power are beginning to talk of vastly inflated reserves figures and pointing to resource depletion within the next two decades. This, if it comes about, would involve all our main sources of energy declining drastically, all within a relatively short timeframe.

But first, some background. Using heavily rounded figures, global energy supply can be broken down as follows: oil supplies 36 per cent of our needs, coal 28 per cent, natural gas 24 per cent, nuclear 6 per cent and hydroelectric 6 per cent. (Solar and wind are less than one per cent so don’t figure in this kind of broad-brush approach – the aim here is to establish the ratios.)

Meanwhile, global demand for all energy sources is growing. Rising energy use is inextricably linked to rising GDP, which is essential both for developing nations to improve their quality of life and for our debt-based economies to function. According to the US Energy Administration Information’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2009, “total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030.” (From 472 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 678 quadrillion Btu in 2030.)

Looking at this by fuel, in order of importance:

Peak oil

The beginning of 2010 has seen a slew of reports pointing to the immediacy of peak oil. It saw the British government meeting to discuss the predicted energy crunch that’s five years away, and the US Joint Forces command report suggesting that the military needs contingency plans as surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years, with serious shortages by 2015. Meanwhile, the “massive reserves” of unconventional oil are not living up to their hype. Reports are indicating that the Canadian oil sands are falling well behind projected outputs, and deepwater drilling is emerging as the risky, expensive venture we’ve always suspected, following the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. The fact that we are so desperate to find reserves itself speaks volumes about the reality of peak oil (Al Gore likened the oil sands to the last vein the junkie finds in his big toe).

Even a rogue slide from a 2009 US Energy Information Administration PowerPoint presentation has recently become an internet sensation. The diagram, World’s Liquid Fuels Supply, projects oil output peaking in 2012 and immediately declining sharply – falling away from a line showing rising demand. The distance between the two is marked ‘unidentified projects.’

According to the projection, by 2016 there will be a gap between supply and demand of 10 million barrels per day. And the EIA has absolutely no idea how that shortfall will be met.

Peak coal

A 2008 New Scientist article, The Great Coal Hole, written by David Strahan tackles the commonly held belief that “coal is generally seen as our safety net in a world of dwindling oil.” Unfortunately, like oil, coal reserves seem to have been routinely inflated, he finds. However, global coal consumption “rose 35 per cent between 2000 and 2006,” particularly in China and India. He observes: “China is by far the world’s largest producer of coal, but such is its appetite for the fuel that in 2007 it became a net importer.”

Energy Watch, a group of scientists led by the German renewable energy consultancy Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST) produced a 2007 report stating commonly accepted coal reserves are unreliable, notes Strahan:

“As scientists we were surprised to find that so-called proven reserves were anything but proven,” says lead author Werner Zittel. “It is a clear sign that something is seriously wrong.”

Since it is widely accepted that major new discoveries of coal are unlikely, Energy Watch forecast that global coal output will peak as early as 2025 and then fall into terminal decline. That’s a lot earlier than is generally assumed by policy-makers, who look to the much higher forecasts of the International Energy Agency, which are based on official reserves. “The perception that coal is the fossil resource of last resort that you can come back to when you run into problems with all the other is probably an illusion,” says Jörg Schindler of LBST.

We constantly read that the world has enough coal for centuries of “dirty power,” with environmentalists warning that more and more carbon will be released into the atmosphere as the world struggles to come to terms with declining oil supplies. This may not be the case. An item in Walrus magazine, An inconvenient talk, written by Chris Turner states:

A Caltech engineer named David Rutledge, meanwhile, applied the same methods used in peak oil prediction to the coal question, and he discovered a paucity of supply so great that he now argues it will be impossible to create the worst-case scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s reports, because there are simply not enough economically viable coal reserves left on earth to cloud the atmosphere with more than 460 parts per million of carbon dioxide.

Research in 2009 from the University of Newcastle in Australia concluded that global coal production “may well peak as soon as 2010.” Overall, it concludes, production will most likely peak “between 2010 and 2048.”

Peak natural gas

In an article titled The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: Past Approaches, New Challenges, Exxon Mobil director and executive vice president Harry J. Longwell writes that most global natural gas resources were discovered “between roughly 1960 to about 1980,” and that discovery rates have subsequently been declining. He continues:

In the recent past, we have seen increasing demand for oil and gas, but generally decreasing discovery volumes. . .

It’s getting harder and harder to find new oil and gas. Industry has made significant new discoveries in the last few years. But they are increasingly being made at greater depths on land, in deeper water at sea, and at more substantial distances from consuming markets.

According to an interview in Walrus magazine, Canadian hydrocarbon geologist David Hughes predicts a global peak of natural gas reserves by 2027. Hughes, an expert in calculating how natural gas might someday be mined from coal bed methane deposits, includes “unconventional” gas reserves in his calculations:

Dave now places Canada’s natural gas production plateau between 2001 and 2006; he supports predictions of a global peak of conventional gas reserves by 2027. He is calmly, logically, witheringly dismissive of rosier scenarios involving unconventional reserves.

Gas is looking unlikely to be the “bridge fuel” that saves us from declining oil.

Peak uranium

Like the hydrocarbons mentioned above, uranium is a finite resource. A 2006 report by the Energy Watch Group, Uranium Resources and Nuclear Energy, suggested that proved uranium reserves will be “exhausted within the next 30 years at current annual demand.” It states:

Eleven countries have already exhausted their uranium reserves. In total, about 2.3 Mt of uranium have already been produced. At present only one country (Canada) is left having uranium deposits containing uranium with an ore grade of more than 1%, most of the remaining reserves in other countries have ore grades below 0.1% and two thirds of reserves have ore grades below 0.06%. This is important as the energy requirement for uranium mining is at best indirect proportional to the ore concentration and with concentrations below 0.01-0.02% the energy needed for uranium processing – over the whole fuel cycle – increases substantially.

The proved reserves (=reasonably assured below 40 $/kgU extraction cost) and stocks will be exhausted within the next 30 years at current annual demand. Likewise, possible resources – which contain all estimated discovered resources with extraction costs of up to 130 $/kg – will be exhausted within 70 years.

It concludes that “In the long term beyond 2030 uranium shortages will limit the expansion of nuclear power plants.”

This is currently being reflected in the market. A March 2010 report in Bloomberg Businessweek, with the straight-talking headline Uranium May Have ‘Hyper’ Price Run, Uranium Energy Corp Says, interviews key personnel at Uranium Energy Corp:

Prices may jump to $100 a pound from about $40 a pound now, Amir Adnani, president and chief executive officer of the U.S.- based company, said today in interview in Hong Kong, without giving a timeframe for the target price. Prices may average about $75 a pound in the next 5 to 10 years, he said.

About 200 gigawatts of atomic capacity are planned or under construction globally, and China, India, Russia and South Korea are set to be the main drivers of uranium demand growth, according to Nomura International. Atomic-power plants risk running short of fuel within a decade because suppliers can’t build enrichment facilities or recycle Soviet-era warheads fast enough, the World Nuclear Association said in a 2009 report.

Nuclear power is clearly not the answer to peak oil.

Conclusions

Many peak oil proponents suggest oil either is about to peak, or has already, and that production will fall below demand sometime before 2020.

In addition, many independent researchers believe the world’s natural gas, coal and uranium are likely to peak during the following decade. This is based on current usage, and does not consider what will happen to demand once we hit peak oil, and the price of oil goes high enough to push the market to find alternatives.

When oil peaks, and the price rises, it may well cause our fragile, debt-ridden economies to collapse. But the worst will be yet to come. When other energy sources subsequently peak, we will be left with no affordable “bridge fuel” to carry us to a sustainable, renewable future. In addition, whereas oil is mainly used in transportation, natural gas and coal together account for the generation of 60 per cent of our electricity, according to EIA figures. If the grid goes down, modern life is over.

(Abridged from the page Global hydrocarbons peak.)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Original article available here

About Me

I'm just another old woman who has had wide ranging interests for a long time,
These include fishing, shooting, reading, cooking, and all manner of (mostly) left wing politics.
Born and bred in New York - Queens, to be precise - I now live in Texas, another state that folks seem to attack (like N.Y.) without ever having been here.
I'm also a fan of most sports -- esp. baseball, esp. the New York Yankees.
Originally a New York Giants (baseball) fan, I was crushed when they moved. It took many years wandering in the wilderness before I returned to baseball. I's all Wade Boggs fault. When I watched that artist, my love for baseball resurfaced. Since he was then a Yankee -- it had to be the Yankees.
The Mets pretended they had spiritual ties to the old Brooklyn Dodgers - no Giant fan could go there.
I tried - couldn't do it.