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He added: 'When it comes to economic forecasts, even the International Monetary Fund finds it difficult to hit this moving target.'

But the Numis report is scathing about the Government's response to the recession and warns it may end up needing a 1970s-style bailout from the IMF.

'The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly over-indebted economy,' it says.

Worse to come: Chancellor Alistair Darling

'We believe the scale of the imbalances in the UK means there is no prospect of a recovery in 2009 and we expect the UK to be mired in a deep recession through all of 2010.'

It calls the Government's aim to get banks to lend again at 2007 levels 'crazy' and warns against anyone borrowing now to enter the property market.

The Numis report predicts that house price falls will accelerate in coming months as amateur buy-to-let investors begin to 'panic sell' their portfolios.

The biggest collapse will be in the glut of city centre flats and executive homes built in the past decade, it claims.

Numis suggests that the average house price - around £160,000 even after recent falls - is over-valued by between 17 per cent and 39 per cent.

It calculates that the average house price should be just £96,000, based on average earnings and the old lending limit of three times salary plus a 25 per cent deposit.

Tory housing spokesman Grant Shapps said: 'We all have to hope that what this report predicts doesn't happen. Clearly if house price falls of this scale did occur, it would mean disaster for untold millions of people.

'Ministers bear direct responsibility for fuelling buy-to-let speculation, partly as a consequence of Gordon Brown's taxes on pensions leading people to seek other investments.

'The glut of flats we have seen is a result of John Prescott's planning policies, which have created distortions in the market.

'The Government's fingerprints are all over this economic wreckage.'

A Treasury spokesman said: '2009 is going to be a difficult year, but most economic forecasters are expecting the economy to recover next year.

'The UK goes into this recession with low debt by international standards.'

Numis Securities Limited is a leading independent investment banking and
institutional stockbroking business.