updated 08:20 am EDT, Mon November 1, 2010

NPD has Android at 44pc due to BlackBerry drop

Android now has roughly twice the market share of the iPhone in the US but owes this to a rash of Americans defecting from the BlackBerry, NPD researchers learned today. Google's platform shot from just three percent last summer to 44 percent this year, but almost all of the gain was at RIM's expense as the BlackBerry collapsed from 46 percent to 22 percent in the space of a year. Apple did decline over the period, but at a far gentler decline from 29 percent to 23 percent.

The gains for Android came largely through the sheer quantity of devices and carriers where RIM was doing little to persuade buyers, according to NPD Executive Director Ross Rubin. Google had the advantage of multiple high-profile phones at each major US carrier. RIM, meanwhile, has usually limited its cross-carrier releases to low-end phones like the BlackBerry Curve and Pearl series where the high-end phones usually only get single-carrier introductions. Verizon is also known to have snubbed RIM by shifting nearly all its marketing attention from phones like the BlackBerry Storm to the Droid line starting from late 2009 onwards.

"The HTC Evo 4G, Motorola Droid X, and other new high-end Android devices have been gaining momentum at carriers that traditionally have been strong RIM distributors," Rubin said. "And the recent introduction of the BlackBerry Torch has done little to stem the tide."

In spite of Google's lead, no one of its devices was enough to challenge Apple or RIM. The iPhone 4 was the single most popular phone in the US during the summer. The BlackBerry Curve 8500 series was second, again helped by its presence on virtually every carrier.

Google's ability to hold on to its lead isn't certain. Leaked, if unconfirmed, CDMA iPhone production details have suggested that Apple expects rapid iPhone sales with a launch on Verizon and could soften Android's effect on the market.

I'd drop my BB if I could

Unfortunately it's the 'company' phone and higher ups think BB is the best thing out there. I've asked if I could go to another phone but the answer is just No. They think Android and iOS are fads and RIM will be back up to 75% market share within a few years. I really hate the kludgy POS but I'm stuck with it. (No I don't work for RIM).

And Android Will More Than TRIPLE iPhone's Share .

Not the full story

I don't think Apple is too concerned as larger marketshare is only useful if it means a larger app platform or larger ad-viewing platform for developers and advertisers, and thus more apps and services for consumers.

However, even though NPD counts Android tablets like the Dell Streak and soon the Samsung Galaxy Tab, they have not counted the total size of the iOS platform in missing out the millions of iPod Touches and iPads sold in the USA which would otherwise have doubled Apple's quarterly share of the market.

In addition, these figures are only for quarterly sales and do not take into account the existing installed base. In those terms, there are still far more iOS devices (125 million+) than Android devices (approx 20-25 million) and the gap is growing each quarter as Apple is selling 275,000-300,000 iOS devices every day compared to 200,000-250,000 Android activations.

Of course once the Verizon iPhone is released, this gap will only get wider.

Increasing marketshare should also bring with it more apps, but Android's recently publicised 100,000 apps are dragged down by 45,000 spam apps (according to AppBrain) and a growing number of malware apps that would have no chance of getting through Apple's review process.

From a consumer perspective, marketshare is also only relevant if it brings with it more hardware peripherals, but no individual model of Android device holds a candle to the total sales of iPhones sharing the same form factor or sharing the same dock connector. That means that only the iPhone can boast of thousands of cases, hundreds of HiFi docks, clock radios, GPS amplifiers, hands-free car kits, FM transmitters, 70% of new cars all having iPod/iPhone dock connecters, steering wheel integration and other hardware peripherals.

So, yes, Android is surging, but it is far from de-throning iOS in terms of all the metrics that matter, including software quantity and quality, media and hardware peripheral marketshares, developer mindshare and income, ad sales, web browser marketshare, installed base and industry profitshare.

I figured it wasn't the iPhone that was

stealing RIM's market share. The consumers that were dumping BBs are basically trading sideways to smartphones similar in price and they can still get BOGO deals. So, RIM always saying things like "We gotta go after the iPhone." is pretty stupid. Most of those smartphone vendors are constantly thinking that Apple is their target and meanwhile Android is eating their lunch. Sure, Apple's definitely selling more smartphones, but not to the same degree Android is and Android phones certainly cost less for more consumers to buy. With the iPhone being held captive to AT&T, all those Verizon carrier, BlackBerry owners will just switch to some other brand on Verizon. RIM is already in trouble and I see no way it can remedy the situation being already on all carriers and doing BOGO, too. RIM's BlackBerry line just seems outdated compared to Android handset offerings.

Still, Android's rise isn't eating iPhone's lunch when you consider Apple can't build iPhones fast enough. You can't sell more if you don't have more iPhones to sell even if Android wasn't in Apple's way. And forget profit share. I doubt if Apple has lost any even during Android's rapid growth. There are so many things Apple can do if it needed to boost iPhone sales even higher, but there's just no need for Apple to be that greedy. iOS is growing very well with iPad and iPod Touch sales included.

Care factor Zero?

The US is not an island. Apple is second "WORLD WIDE" which is what matters more than the US market which is fractured between one carrier on GSM/HSPA UMTS (AT&T), another on GSM/ HSPA AWS (T-Mobile), Verizon on CDMA 2000 and Sprint on CDMA 2000 + WiMax.

Because of this landscape, it is no wonder that Apple's market share in the US is lower. They have no interest in targeting multiple standards for the US market and would rather focus on the markets in other countries which are less fragmented.

Re: I'd drop my BB if I could

Unfortunately it's the 'company' phone and higher ups think BB is the best thing out there. I've asked if I could go to another phone but the answer is just No.

Yes, it must be due to them thinking it's the best. It certainly couldn't be due to them not wanting to spend the money on dealing with a multitude of different phones, OSes, and supporting each and every one. Nope. And I'm sure it couldn't be that any number of users might want to stay with BB. Nah, that can't be it. Must be that Windows mentality built-in.

They think Android and iOS are fads and RIM will be back up to 75% market share within a few years.

Now, have they actually said that, or is that just what you infer from the fact they haven't dropped everything to go to someone else?

Apples vs. Oranges

Why do articles continue to extend this fake battle between Google and Apple. Why compare an entire platform to one device? Apple has never competed in the market solely as an OS platform. When people buy and Android-based HTC or Motorola or Samsung phone they are buying an entire device and carrier service, not just the OS. As a matter of fact, as an OS, Android is practically a copy-cat of the iPhone OS, with the main difference being that Google opened it to multiple smartphone manufacturers.
Show me the comparison between actual smartphones!

Re: Not the full story

However, even though NPD counts Android tablets like the Dell Streak and soon the Samsung Galaxy Tab,

Who says they counted tablets, which would seem odd in a phone analysis? And even if they did, are you saying these tablets are selling so well they can create such a skewing of results?

In addition, these figures are only for quarterly sales and do not take into account the existing installed base. In those terms, there are still far more iOS devices (125 million+) than Android devices (approx 20-25 million) and the gap is growing each quarter as Apple is selling 275,000-300,000 iOS devices every day compared to 200,000-250,000 Android activations.

And now you're comparing Android phone activations to all iOS activations (which includes iPads and iPods). You have no idea how many Android products are being sold that don't need 'activation'.

increasing marketshare should also bring with it more apps, but Android's recently publicised 100,000 apps are dragged down by 45,000 spam apps (according to AppBrain)

And how many of the AppStore apps are "spam apps", which, despite the name, isn't about spam our anything malicious except being apps with relatively little features. You really think 70% of AppStore apps are all killer apps with great ratings?

And lest you forget, Apple was allowing tons of c***-apps to pass through the first couple of years (news aggregators and such), so much so that they ended up throwing out a bunch.

and a growing number of malware apps that would have no chance of getting through Apple's review process.

Yes, the FUD of the malware! It certainly couldn't be that users are idiots for letting apps do things they shouldn't be doing. Nope. It's the app and the platform. How many apps have actually been true malware, not just the scareware the FUD-meisters want you to think is out there?

BTW, Apple can't keep malware out, they can only hope to find it before it is released. But that's just a hope. You have no idea what data is being sent from your cool game you downloaded and let get access to your current location.

Re: Re: Not the full story

@testudo,
NPD and Canalys counted Android tablets because all the Android tablets that matter have had to include cell phone hardware up till now. The reason is that Google has refused to allow access for these devices to the Android Marketplace unless the devices could be used as phones.

I'm not saying these Android tablets are selling well, but just pointing out that the reason why marketshare is important is if it grows the size of the app platform so more developers write more apps for it. Well, guess what, the iOS app platform is far larger than just the iPhone. The important comparison is mobile operating systems - Android vs iOS - for both developers and advertisers and thus also for consumers.

Android Activations means Google has allowed access to the Android Marketplace as well as Google's default apps. Any Android devices that don't have these are effectively crippled.

And yes, there are far more quality apps on the iOS app store. The largest segment - games - is a prime example.

Android OS is severely lacking in big name game titles released by all of the largest mobile Game publishers:
* Gameloft – 136 games for iOS vs 12 games for Android
* Capcom Mobile – 27 games for iOS vs 4 games for Android
* EA – 74 games for iOS vs 0 for Android
* Ngmoco – 42 games for iOS vs 0 for Android
* Pangea – 24 games for iOS vs 0 for Android
* Popcap – 5 for iOS vs 0 for Android
* ID's new game Rage is only being produced for iOS

And total number of games:
iOS = 38,000 vs Android = 13,000

Although Popcap and EA have said they will start porting some games to Android soon, this disparity is not likely to change much with iOS developers making 50x the income ($1 billion) compared to Android ($21 million) over a similar timeframe and with piracy ranging from 50-97% on Android.

The situation is the same for business apps. The Android App market just does not compare to iOS.

As far as malware is concerned, the iOS App Store still has a perfect score of 0 whereas the Android Marketplace has already had over 50 banking Apps that were actually phishing malware, a wallpaper app that sent the personal details of 4 million users to China, the Russian movie player app that in reality sent premium SMS texts at the user's expense etc. Malware is a big problem on the un-regulated free-for-all that is the Android marketplace whether you like to admit it or not and is non-existant on the App Store.