Predicting extinction: The dynamics of salmon populations at low densities

Principal Investigators:

Ray Hilborn

We propose to combine meta-analysis, the analysis of a large number of data sets to determine the probability of different population parameters, with Bayesian risk analysis to provide a methodology for making predictions about extinction and other risks of low density populations. A NCEAS working group would meet twice to apply these methods to a case study of coho salmon in California and Oregon using existing meta-analytic data sets, and to explore the potential for developing similar data sets for other taxonomic groups.

We propose to combine meta-analysis, the analysis of a large number of data sets to determine the probability of different population parameters, with Bayesian risk analysis to provide a methodology for making predictions about extinction and other risks of low density populations. A NCEAS working group would meet twice to apply these methods to a case study of coho salmon in California and Oregon using existing meta-analytic data sets, and to explore the potential for developing similar data sets for other taxonomic groups.