Pro Tour Paris Metagame Breakdown

Paul JordanThursday, February 17, 2011

he idea is simple—splice a Grand Prix onto a Pro Tour weekend. The execution quickly spirals away from simplicity for everyone involved—ask the judges, organizers, dealers and players (see: Rietzl, Paul). The logistics alone would scare off most folks from even making an attempt at such an ambitious weekend. Thankfully, those putting together Magic Weekend Paris were not deterred and the result was a spectacular success of a weekend. With nearly 300 sanctioned events for over 2,700 players in there was certainly a cavalcade of result slips indicating success or failure. I'd love to be able to sift through all of those results but a full time job and MBA classes at night are somewhat greedy for my time. Failing that though, we can take a walk through the results of the PT and the 2,466 matches that were played. That should give us enough to talk about, no?

Going into the tournament, chatter I was hearing centered on White-Blue Control (or Caw-Go), Valakut, Kuldotha, White Weenie, Blue-Black Control and probably some other decks. We know this was mostly correct, as Rashad Miller took the time to sieve through all 482 deck registration sheets and get his MS Excel on here. For reference, so you don't have to keep clicking back and forth, here's the metagame that was PT Paris 2011:

Deck

Number

%

Valakut

105

21.78%

Blue-Black Control

100

20.75%

Caw-Go

67

13.90%

Kuldotha Red

36

7.47%

Vampires

34

7.05%

Boros

28

5.81%

Quest

18

3.73%

Blue-Red-Green

15

3.11%

White-Blue Control

15

3.11%

Green-White Aggro

11

2.28%

Tempered Steel

9

1.87%

Mono-Red

8

1.66%

Blue-Black-Green

6

1.24%

Eldrazi Ramp

6

1.24%

Infect

4

0.83%

Mono-Green Ramp

4

0.83%

Elves

3

0.62%

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

3

0.62%

Mass Polymorph

2

0.41%

White Weenie

2

0.41%

Allies

1

0.21%

Bant Aggro

1

0.21%

Grixis Control

1

0.21%

Mono-Black

1

0.21%

Naya

1

0.21%

Red-Green Aggro

1

0.21

Chatter is what it is for a reason and for the most part the metagame's top representatives were accurately predicted. The proportions may not have been exact but the basics were there. Valakut was the 800-pound gorilla in the room, with most people expecting it. As we'll see, a target on your back can mean bad things for performance. Here's how those decks did overall.

Deck

Win %

Matches

Allies

70.00%

10

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

65.22%

23

Caw-Go

60.86%

396

Bant Aggro

60.00%

5

Blue-Red-Green

57.73%

97

White Weenie

57.14%

14

Quest

56.56%

122

Boros

55.93%

177

Green-White Aggro

54.24%

59

Infect

51.43%

35

Naya

50.00%

4

Grixis control

50.00%

4

Vampires

49.51%

204

White-Blue Control

49.41%

85

Tempered Steel

48.39%

62

Valakut Ramp

47.66%

535

Mono-Red

46.67%

45

Blue-Black-Green

46.15%

26

Blue-Black Control

45.22%

513

Mass Polymorph

42.86%

14

Kuldotha Red

42.06%

214

Red-Green Aggro

40.00%

5

Blue-Black-Green

40.00%

5

Mono-Green Ramp

39.13%

23

Eldrazi Ramp

35.71%

28

Elves

7.14%

14

Unknown

0.00%

1

Green-White Ramp

0.00%

5

Mono-Black

0.00%

5

Aaron Cooney's Allies deck (he was the only pilot) came out with a 7-3 record in Standard, netting him the nominal "best deck" title. Of course, 10 matches aren't quite enough to just hand over the title (if you want to see his list, it is in the top decks here). Likewise, Chapin's Tezzeret put on an impressive show and had a lot of people talking. I'm going to need 23 matches (in the hands of such skilled pilots as Chapin, Michael Jacob and Guillaume Matignon) to give out the gold star. My unofficial pick for best deck at PT Paris is the one that won over 60% of its almost 400 matches. Caw-go, Brian Kibler's current love, came back after a disappointing Worlds performance to silence its doubters. The Equipment package pushed the deck over the top (where Hawks like to go).

Caw-Go

Win %

Matches

Elves

100.00%

2

Green-White Aggro

80.00%

5

Eldrazi Ramp

71.43%

7

Vampires

70.97%

31

Blue-Black Control

69.32%

88

Kuldotha Red

68.97%

29

Mono-Red

63.64%

11

Valakut Ramp

57.94%

107

Boros

57.69%

26

Blue-Black-Green

55.56%

9

White-Blue Control

55.00%

20

Tempered Steel

54.55%

11

White Weenie

50.00%

4

Allies

50.00%

2

Infect

50.00%

2

Mono-Green Ramp

50.00%

2

Red-Green Aggro

50.00%

2

Quest

45.45%

22

Blue-Black-Green

41.67%

12

Naya

0.00%

2

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

0.00%

2

Grand Total

60.86%

39

Good gravy, that's a lot of 50+! At Worlds, White-Blue decks (admittedly not all were Caw-Go) had a paltry 45% record against Blue-Black decks. A couple of months later there's almost a 25% swing. Looking at this, I honestly can't find a single thing to complain about. When all of your sub-.500 records combined account for less than 8% of the metagame you're looking pretty good. When the worst you've done against a Top 4 deck (excluding, of course, your 50% mirror match) is 58%, I mean, yeah, you're doing OK. Ben Stark, I'm sure, would agree. The only thing I would caution against is that I'm sure Tezzeret is going to gain popularity. Both Caw-go losses to Tezzeret came at the hands of Chapin. They were against brand name Magicians in Owen Turtenwald and Shouta Yasooka. Two matches hardly means a thing, but the deck seems well positioned to make a splash against the PT winner.

Valakut

Win %

Matches

Red-Green Aggro

100.00%

1

Green-White Ramp

100.00%

1

Elves

100.00%

6

Blue-Black-Green

100.00%

2

Mono-Black

100.00%

2

Blue-Black-Green

100.00%

2

Eldrazi Ramp

80.00%

5

Mass Polymorph

75.00%

4

Mono-Red

66.67%

12

Kuldotha Red

66.04%

53

White-Blue Control

62.50%

16

Mono-Green Ramp

60.00%

5

Green-White Aggro

52.94%

17

Blue-Black Control

50.00%

140

Allies

50.00%

2

Caw-Go

42.06%

107

Vampires

41.46%

41

Quest

36.00%

25

Tempered Steel

33.33%

9

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

33.33%

3

Boros

32.56%

43

Infect

30.00%

10

Blue-Red-Green

22.22%

27

White Weenie

0.00%

1

Grixis control

0.00%

1

Grand Total

47.66%

53

The only deck in the tournament that I know of that could, in theory at least, win a game via damage without playing a single spell or attacking is Valakut. A lot of people must enjoy that, since Valakut was the best represented. And a lot of people were disappointed. The only Top 5 deck it did well against was Kuldotha Red. Even the more fringe decks came prepared for the Molten Pinnacle. Sometimes having a target pinned to your back is not a good thing. Looking back to Worlds though, this wasn't entirely unpredictable. Valakut was a third of the field there and won just shy of 50% of the matches. Less people shuffled up the mana-ramping songs this time around but people were still very much prepared to handle it.

UB Control

Win %

Matches

Naya

100.00%

2

Green-White Ramp

100.00%

1

Red-Green Aggro

100.00%

1

Elves

100.00%

1

Mono-Black

100.00%

2

White Weenie

66.67%

3

Grixis Control

66.67%

3

Tempered Steel

62.50%

16

Quest

62.50%

24

Mono-Red

54.55%

11

Kuldotha Red

52.83%

53

Valakut Ramp

50.00%

140

Mass Polymorph

50.00%

6

Boros

43.75%

32

Vampires

43.64%

55

Blue-White Control

42.86%

14

Blue-Black-Green

42.86%

7

Blue-Red-Green

41.18%

17

Infect

33.33%

9

Eldrazi Ramp

33.33%

6

Caw-Go

30.68%

88

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

20.00%

5

Green-White Aggro

18.18%

11

Bant Aggro

0.00%

2

Mono-Green Ramp

0.00%

3

Blue-Red-Green

0.00%

1

Grand Total

45.22%

51

Blue-Black Control, less than 15% of the field at Worlds, was about 6% more of the field at Paris. With more people at the helm, the results suffered. Blue-Black Control moved from 5% over 50% to 5% under, decidedly the wrong directly. In addition to getting worse against White-Blue Control, Blue-Black also got worse against Valakut. In Chiba Blue-Black was able to beat Valakut 55% of the time, but just broke even in Paris. Strategies were certainly altered from one tournament to another, and of course a new set was available. I expect that Blue-Black Control will drop in popularity as people who would normally play this deck up migrate to Tezzeret.

Kuldotha Red

Win %

Matches

Unknown

100.00%

1

Mass Polymorph

100.00%

1

Green-White Aggro

100.00%

3

Mono-Green Ramp

100.00%

2

Blue-Red-Green

77.78%

9

Boros

58.33%

12

White-Blue Control

50.00%

4

Infect

50.00%

4

Blue-Black Control

47.17%

53

Tempered Steel

42.86%

7

Vampires

41.18%

17

Valakut Ramp

33.96%

53

Caw-Go

31.03%

29

Quest

25.00%

12

Mono-Red

0.00%

1

White Weenie

0.00%

1

Allies

0.00%

2

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

0.00%

1

Red-Green Aggro

0.00%

1

Blue-Black-Green

0.00%

1

Grand Total

42.06%

21

At about 7.5% of the field, Kuldotha Red is one of those decks that you have to be prepared for, but maybe not one that you have more than a couple of sideboard cards for. Judging by its performance at Paris, you won't have to be any more prepared than you currently are. It's possible that twelve matches against Boros are predictive and it becomes more popular thanks to Mr. Reitzl and as a result Kuldotha Red is the Boros-slayer. It's possible. But I don't think even that would be enough to move Kuldotha Red to the top tier.

Vampires

Win %

Matches

White Weenie

100.00%

1

Infect

100.00%

1

Elves

100.00%

1

Mono-Red

66.67%

3

Kuldotha Red

58.82%

17

Valakut Ramp

58.54%

41

Blue-Black Control

56.36%

55

White-Blue Control

50.00%

4

Eldrazi Ramp

50.00%

2

Boros

47.62%

21

Quest

40.00%

10

Green-White Aggro

33.33%

6

Tempered Steel

33.33%

3

Blue-Red-Green

33.33%

6

Caw-Go

29.03%

31

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

0.00%

1

Blue-Black-Green

0.00%

1

Grand Total

49.51%

20

Vampires is one of the few decks to stay the same between Chiba and Paris. 8% of the field in Chiba, 7% in Paris. 49.69% win rate in Chiba, 49.51% in Paris. That's pretty impressive, really. Not really meaningful, but impressive. This is a deck that has enough of a following and stable enough performance that you should continue to be prepared. I'm not saying this is the deck to play or anything like that. The results aren't sexy, but they are effective enough to cause a problem or two on the road to winning a tournament.

Boros

Win %

Matches

Green-White Ramp

100.00%

2

Elves

100.00%

1

Tempered Steel

100.00%

2

Blue-Black-Green

100.00%

1

Infect

100.00%

3

Blue-Black-Red Tezzeret Control

75.00%

4

Valakut Ramp

67.44%

43

Blue-Red-Green

60.00%

5

White-Blue Control

60.00%

10

Blue-Black Control

56.25%

32

Vampires

52.38%

21

Mass Polymorph

50.00%

2

Caw-Go

42.31%

26

Kuldotha Red

41.67%

12

Quest

33.33%

6

Mono-Green Ramp

33.33%

3

Mono-Red

0.00%

3

Allies

0.00%

1

Grand Total

55.93%

17

A small following will likely increase with two berths in the top 8. Boros saw a modest 1.5% increase in popularity from Worlds and 2.4% increase in win rate. So it was already doing fine. Not great, but fine. And it improved. I'm a little surprised there weren't more people running this deck, actually. It should, in theory, be the default aggro deck. Historically people have liked aggro decks. If Caw-go does indeed become more popular, this may not be the right call after all. Listening to coverage of the PT it sounded like people thought Paul Reitzl was the favorite in the finals. Looking at the numbers it seemed pretty obvious he was not. Then again, Paul had been undefeated against Caw-Go (3-0-1) until that point, so what do I know?

I really enjoy when there are back-to-back tournaments for the same format. As we've seen, things do not usually remain constant. An archetype will look entirely different from one tournament to the next and this can lead to wild swings that we may not anticipate. This was no exception. All told, I can't wait for PT Nagoya in June when we get to see how Block Constructed is panning out.

I've also included a spreadsheet of the full deck-on-deck results, which I'm sure my editor will link to somewhere around here.