Comments on: Knicks 2009 Season Preview Part IIIhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/knicks-2009-season-preview-part-iii/
Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.Tue, 03 Mar 2015 17:11:53 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0.1By: calebhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/knicks-2009-season-preview-part-iii/#comment-269182
Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:27:22 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=911#comment-269182Yeah, he is quite similar to Jerome Williams. Statistically speaking, the only real difference (in their careers so far) is that Balkman blocks a lot more shots. Strange, since Williams was much bigger.

Grant Long – I don’t know how he does those player comparisons. That doesn’t seem remotely right.

I don’t disagree that Balk can play the 4 against some opponents; I’m just saying he can guard 2s just as well. It’s not like he has to go to the bench because Garnett is in the game. Not many players have that versatility. Obviously, to be a difference maker he’ll have to cut down on fouling and stay healthy.

I know it’s ridiculous we’re still talking about RB this much – I guess I am burned out on Chandler-talk and most of the other Knicks are so completely forgettable. Aside from that, RB is fun to watch and is so “extreme” in many ways that it will be fun to see what happens to him.

]]>By: Ted Nelsonhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/knicks-2009-season-preview-part-iii/#comment-269180
Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:55:00 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=911#comment-269180JYD was quite similar to Balkman statistically. Maybe he didn’t have Balkman’s quickness, but did play some SF.

I’m not saying it’s his best position, but I think Balkman can play the 4 for a few reasons. His rebounding and shot blocking are strong even for a PF. There are also a lot of PFs out there who make their livings floating around on the perimeter and driving past slower PFs. In both cases, Balkman’s a good fit. He probably wouldn’t do well is extended minutes against a big-banger like Boozer or Brand–not that many players do a great job blocking them–but could be a different look to throw at them for a few minutes. Offensively, he gives you quickness and some ball-handling that a lot of 4s don’t.
You take away one of his main strengths–perimeter defense–by moving him to the 4. If Denver wants 3 of AI, JR Smith, Melo, and Kleiza on the court at the same time, though, Balkman can guard the 4 or Melo/Kleiza can. Both those guys have a bit more bulk.

A sort of 2nd tier of starting PFs (Jamison, David West, Josh Smith, Ron Artest, Turkoglu/Lewis, Lamar Odom, potentially Beasley, Al Harrington, Drew Gooden) are virtually made for Balkman to guard. Some starting PFs have size advantages on Balkman and could take advantage of him in the post, but rely on their jumper and/or quickness to an extent where he might hang with them as well as most PFs (KG, Dirk, Bosh, Pau, Sheed, LaMarcus Aldride, Villanueva). And then there are the big boys (TD, Boozer, Brand, Randolph, Scola, even Jason Maxiell maybe) who might own him on the blocks. If he has the work ethic to stick in the NBA, he figures to put on some weight–or at least strength–over the years if he knows he’s going to be spending time at the 4.

I’m not going to belabor this, but this is what our running argument boils down to: I say there have been very, very few players “like” Balkman in the past. He has real flaws in his game but also major strengths. Many people compare him to “energy” guys like Eduardo Najera, or PEJ, but they have not produced anything like Balkman has on the court.

btw, why do people insist on seeing him as a potential power forward? I guess he can do it in spots, because he is such a strong rebounder for a 3. But he can just as easily guard the 2… he’s plenty quick, and only weighs about 210.

All NBA coaches/GMs probably don’t think exactly the same. It could be that those who recognize what’s important–consciously or not–consistently outperform those who do not. Pretty hard to test, though.

Again, I don’t think Balkman’s deficiencies are that extreme. He certainly has “deficiencies”, but I’m not sure having Balkman on your offense hurts as much as having most Knicks on your defense. For example, as a rookie (06-07) Balkman took 1 more FGA/36 than Camby in 07-08, and the Knicks played at a slower pace. His TS% was better than Camby’s from last year (.531 to .498). His offensive rebounds were higher (3.3 to 3). The only offensive edge Camby has over Balkman as a rookie is passing. (I know, Camby’s a center. I’ll get to that.)

“Things are sometimes so complex, they defy good modeling in some areas.”

I’m not sure that the game of basketball is comparable to the US financial system in its complexity. One common subject is incentives: perverse incentives lead various groups within the financial system to act against the interests of the system–and society–as a whole, while salaries and fame being assigned based on ppg creates a perverse incentive for basketball players.
There’s not one definitive model to explain a player’s worth or evaluate talent (hence the competing models), but I do think that there are multiple statistical models that have proven more effective than the average GM.

IS and Frank,

Any analysis is going to reveal that Balkman regressed from year one to two and has some big holes in his game. He’s also been inconsistent and doesn’t appear to be a hard worker. I hope we’re all on the same page there.
I see where you guys are coming from: a SF who can´t shoot is different from a C who can’t shoot. First, I’m on the record saying that I think Balkman can play the 4 (especially if he gets in the weight-room). He’ll get abused by Tim Duncan, but who doesn’t? In Denver, for example, Nene can guard the more dangerous post scorers while Balkman does the help defense thing and slows down quick, athletic PFs. Not necessarily for 40 mpg, but between the 3 and the 4 I think he should be a solid rotation player–25 or so MPG–just by building on his rookie performance. Second, in this day and age, you’ve got centers like Okur and Bargnani who wonder the perimeter and leave room inside for the Balkmans.
As far as fouls, I’ve shown before that most defensive stoppers have at least a season or two where they foul way too much early in their career. Balkman may never learn, but it’s definitely reasonable to assume that he will.
I don’t know if he’ll be a Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace, who share 6 defensive player of their year awards between them (due at least in part to circumstances beyond their control, of course). However, just as not every scorer can be Nash or Dirk and not every passer can be Magic or Kidd, there are lesser players with limited offensive games. Jerome Williams and Michael Curry come to mind.
He may never make it, but I think there’s a good amount of evidence to take a risk on him.

]]>By: Frankhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/knicks-2009-season-preview-part-iii/#comment-269164
Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:16:53 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=911#comment-269164I personally loved watching Balkman play but also think that his value is limited. He’d light up the garden at times with his energy and hustle, but just as often he’d overplay a passing lane causing an easy layup or he’d pass up an wide-open 10 foot jumper, drive to hoop, get fouled, and miss both free throws. One second he’d hound Carmelo into a bad shooting night, then the next he’d make some second-rate opponent look like the next coming of Michael Jordan. And then it’d be the middle of the 1st quarter and he’d have 3 fouls and sit the rest of the game. His numbers per minute are great but if you commit 3 fouls in the first 15 minutes you play you’ll never be anymore than a bit player. His TS% may be great but if the other team is in the penalty with 6 minutes left in the quarter that’s not good either.

And even though he’s a good rebounder at the SF position, it’s not like he’s really big enough to play PF or C, where things like shooting from more than 6 inches from the rim are less important. Optimistically, one could call him a Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman type, but #1, he’s not as good as either of them, #2 he fouls way more than they do, and #3 he doesn’t play their position. Especially in a D’Antoni system (like it or not, that’s what we’ve got now), the SF (and preferably the 4 and 5 also) has to be able to shoot — and given his reported poor practice habits, utter lack of improvement over 2 years here, foul- and injury-prone nature, I think all the anguish over him leaving is a bit of an overreaction.

Few here would argue with the proposition that inefficient scorers tend to be overrated by the media, public, and some basketball executives. That automatically translates, into things like defense, steals, blocked shots, rebounds etc.. tending to be underrated.

However, when you are talking about fairly extreme deficiencies in offense, perhaps some of these statistical models are flawed in the opposite direction???

If they aren’t, you would have to assume that virtually everyone in the NBA is totally idiotic despite the fact that they’ve been coaching for decades, playing for decades, observing actual results on court for decades with these specific types of players in and out of the line up etc…

By the way, I added “not so great minds” specifically with Isiah in mind. LOL

However, you should keep in mind that it WAS ISIAH that drafted him so early despite his known offensive deficiencies.

So what was it?

Was Isiah very smart for seeing his potential and hidden value and drafting him so early or was he really stupid for not playing him once he got to see him in action and found out what he really had and how it complimented the rest of his pieces?

I love stats and models as much as the next guy, but IMO if you become a slave to them and stop thinking you wind up like all the Wall St guys with 180 IQs that go broke and take out the financial system. Sometimes you have to actually look at what’s going on and the results you get without trying to create a model to explain it. Things are sometimes so complex, they defy good modeling in some areas.

Of course, that doesn’t mean I am right. We will eventually find out over time whether Balkman becomes a key or major role player for Denver (or some other team) or falls by the wayside. My view is clear. He will always be a very marginal role player unless he improves his mid range game and free throw shooting, but his best shot is on a team with a lot of offense like Denver.

]]>By: jon abbeyhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/knicks-2009-season-preview-part-iii/#comment-269151
Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:39:06 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=911#comment-269151Gallinari was a fine pick considering what was out there at the time, he should end up being a great fit in this offense, a big guy who can bust threes and pass. it would be nice if we had a quality C and/or PG again before I die, though.
]]>By: Owenhttp://KnickerBlogger.Net/knicks-2009-season-preview-part-iii/#comment-269150
Tue, 28 Oct 2008 03:26:27 +0000http://www.knickerblogger.net/?p=911#comment-269150Do you really think that all the great (and not so great) basketball minds in the history of the NBA haven’t experimented with players like Balkman in the past and concluded they were getting better results by using players with a more balanced skill set?”