Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

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With the premiere tonight of CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy, it seems well timed to take a closer look at the hopeful comments in the vein of "If Golden Boyfails, X will be saved".

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 473rd time.

CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.

Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and one of The Good Wife, The Mentalistor Golden Boy.

While the most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:

You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another Spring drama.

You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bearon Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

At 1.5 Fox and ABC would still cancel Vegas even if it had 12.8 million viewers.

Only NBC has the stomach to swallow such low ratings and even then it would only renew it by a hair.

It’s good as gone now, and with two weeks of Golden Boy, its rating are going to drop even lower.

Dinaminjo

After watching Golden Boy, this might happen

Mon:
HIMYM
new
2BG
M&M
new drama (Beverly Hills Cop)

Tue:
NCIS
NCIS: Red
CSI

Wed:
Person of Interest
NCIS: LA
H50

Thu:
TBBT
new comedy
2.5 Men
new comedy
Criminal Minds

Fri:
Survivor / Boss
Golden Boy (??)
Blue Bloods

Sund:
TAR
Elementary
Mentalist

Midseason:
The Good Wife

I know it is only 2 dramas (if GB makes it), but CBS need a hit comedy more than it needs a hit drama.
I know people think canceling Mentalist is the way to go, but you still have to put something in its slot. CBS will keep it for another year.

Dinaminjo

Correction:

Thu:
TBBT
new comedy
2.5Men
new comedy
Elementary

Sun:
TAR
Criminal Minds
The Mentalist

alvar

@martinesque

CBS will need something solid for Sundays next season and The Good Wife just can’t continue on Sundays with those ratings. Both POI and Elementary are the obvious choice as both are relatively new dramas, are rating solidly and still have room to grow compared with aging dramas like NCIS, Criminal Minds, CSI, etc. I suspect they will only move one of the two.

a) Person of Interest will move to 9pm Sunday with Elementary taking the 9pm Thursday slot OR
b) Elementary will move to 9pm Sunday with Person of Interest staying on Thursday.

alvar

@Dinaminjo

I don’t see CBS making major changes to their schedule next season as you have suggested. Why would they move shows like Hawaii Five O, NCIS: LA, Survivor, Criminal Minds or CSI when all are doing fine where they are. I realistically can only see them moving 1 or 2 solid shows to fix their weak Sunday lineup.

Dinaminjo

@alvar

And where do you propose new shows get launched?!

Vegas is one spot.
TGW is another but with no 3+ lead in a new show would not do well..

Ultima

@DanI get that Vegas isn’t doing well in the demographics, but according to the average season ratings to date on this site, it’s drawn an average of 12.8 million viewers, good for #19 overall. Something is wrong when Top 20 is considered “not very good.”

Since 1 January, Vegas has averaged 10.6 million viewers, which is only 86% of the average for dramas on CBS (as opposed to its 1.6 A18-49 rating being 71% of the average). That’s not very good, that’s below average. It certainly can’t be used as a selling point for reneweing the show.

Ultima

@Dinaminjowith no 3+ lead in a new show would not do well..

Nonsense. New shows do not need big lead-ins to be successful. They’re nice, but far from necessary – there are plenty of self-starting shows.

Ultima

@alvarI don’t see CBS making major changes to their schedule next season

I agree, unless they decide to add an extra hour of comedies.

I think Elementary will move to either Tuesday 10pm or Sunday 9pm, with a new drama in the other timeslot. New drama Thursday 10pm and a new drama on Friday (with Undercover Boss on the fall schedule if they cancel both CSI NY and The Good Wife).

DeanW

@ alvar

I don’t think CBS will move Person of Interest to Sunday next Season. The best choices are Elementary or Hawaii Five-0.
On the other hand, Elementary is too young and too weak to move at 9.

Risky to put Elementary behind a new drama. If you have NCIS Red going into that timeslot, it might just be better to launch a second new drama on Tuesday and leave Elementary where it is.

Otherwise, move Elementary there but leave NCIS LA in place and have two new shows at 9:30 and 10 on Monday. It depends on the strength of their pilots, of course, but their previous back-to-back new shows in 2009 and 2010 were both successful.

Michael1

If NBC snags Vegas, they may finally be able to beat that “Cougar Town”/”Big Bang Theory” 10pm power hour over at TBS on Tuesday. If TBS starts winning that on a regular basis, it’s only a matter of time before Conan starts beating Leno on Tuesday.

Jim

CSI:NY has to be renewed for a 10th season. To those who say it should be cancelled, your opinion doesn’t count.

Holly

@Dan,

I guess the show is cursed by the fact that it’s on CBS. ABC, FOX, and NBC would kill for 12.8 million viewers for a scripted drama series.

Where is that number? The archive site I use (Spotted Ratings) only has its average at 11 million. Maybe the 12.8 is “Most Current” (which includes Live+7 for weeks it is available).

Regardless, you might want to ask Harry’s Law if NBC would kill for a show with a lot of viewers outside the demo.

Michele

Vegas is 10 times better then Rules of engagement, Why did you cancel? Cancel Rules that show sucks.

Holly

Rules may well be cancelled, but that has no bearing on Vegas’ fate.

Petar Ivanov

@Dinaminjo

Too much changes. This is CBS not NBC or fox. However i think POI should take wednesday 8 pm slot. Will grow more and will be in its prime during season 3 so possible spinn off will has the best chance of success. Also no big football games, nba games and in general less sport events in wednesday which is worst competition for POI.

JacobYates

Since NBC is such a train wreck when it come to ratings, it would love Vegas on its lineup. Harry’s Law was cancelled because NBC had a much better scripted average that year. Given their average this year, they would kill.for Vegas.

Holly

@JacobYates,

Perhaps, but their primary problems are in the comedies, not their dramas. With Revolution, Parenthood, Chicago Fire and Grimm all performing on par or better than Vegas, they have no need to kill for Vegas. Now Rules of Engagement…