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WORTH WATCHING ON TV...

"CIVIL WAR GOLD" debutes on PBS: Nov. 17, 2004 -- The fascinating story of the SS Republic and the recovery of the incredible coins from the shipwreck will be the subject of a one-hour National Geographic Special on PBS. The CIVIL WAR GOLD special aired starting Nov 17, 2004 (Check listings for rebroadcast). Related Story:
11-16-04: A Submersible Robot Dives for Steamship Gold -NYT

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy is losing steam, the Conference Board said Thursday, reporting that the index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in October, the fifth straight decrease.

The string of declines "is a clear signal that the economy is losing steam, and may start off 2005 with a relatively weak pace of economic activity," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the board.

A separate business confidence survey "suggests that worries about where the economy is heading may cause some strategic plans to be put on hold," Goldstein said. "And the signal will be much stronger if consumers turn more cautious, just as the holiday season approaches."

The declines "have not been large enough nor have they persisted for long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion," the board said.

The September leading index was revised lower to a 0.3 percent decline, from a 0.1 percent drop previously.

The string of declines is "not a sign that the U.S. economy is headed towards recession," said Matthew Martin, an economist for Economy.com, who pointed out that the last time the index fell for five months in a row (in 1995), the economy resumed a healthy expansion.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Blue chips posted a triple-digit decline Friday and the Nasdaq fell more than one percent after Fed chief Alan Greenspan's remarks about the dangers of large current account deficit sent the dollar tumbling and stoked concern about higher inflation and rising interest rates.
A surge in oil prices, sparked by renewed worries about tight supply, further undermined sentiment.

"It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point," Greenspan said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference on the euro in Frankfurt, Germany. See full story.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last down 117 points, at 10,456.
Within the benchmark index, Walt Disney was one of only two gainers, climbing 1.2 percent as analysts cheered its fourth quarter performance.

McDonald's as down 2.7 percent, extending a prior session loss as the discovery of a potential second case of mad-cow disease in the United States continued to weigh.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 28 points, to 2,077.

The S&P 500 Index dropped 11.40 points, to 1,172.

"Greenspan has brought to light more worries about the account deficit, weakening the dollar," said Robert Pavlik, portfolio manager, at Oaktree Asset Management.

"The market is a little bit edgy being at this 10,500 level (on the Dow industrials) and people are a little bit more inclined to take some profits rather than sit around and ride something like this out."

The dollar extended its slide Friday in the wake of the Fed chief's remarks.

The euro was last up 0.8 percent, at $1.3056 after hitting a high of $1.3074 in trading Thursday. The pound was also up 0.5 percent, at $1.8581. Against the yen, the dollar fell nearly 1 percent, to 103.32.

The dollar's recent stumble is also likely to take center stage at the discussions this week at a gathering finance ministers and central bank chief from the top 20 economies.

Many participants think that hedge funds, which had pushed up the crude oil futures in New York, are now lending support to the dollar's decline, said Masatoshi Nishi, chief manager of the treasury and securities division at Saitama Resona Bank in Tokyo.

Gold futures climbed above $446 an ounce as the tumbling dollar raised the attractiveness of the precious metal as an investment.

http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com

Related Stories:Consumer prices rise .6% (7% annual) -CNNfn -Nov 17- Key inflation measure tops Wall Street forecast but doesn't show spike seen in wholesale prices.U.S. October Producer Prices Rise the Most Since 1990 - Bloomberg
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid to U.S. producers rose 1.7 percent last month, the most since January 1990, led by a surge in energy costs. Excluding fuel and food, prices increased more than expected. ``There are just massive amounts of inflation brewing,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. fixed-income economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. ``It's clear there is a lot of pipeline pressure coming through and it's coming through because there's a good increase in demand.''

Republicans want a larger, $800 billion increase in the politically sensitive federal debt limit to ensure the Treasury has sufficient borrowing authority to finance continued high budget deficits through this fiscal year, the WALL STREET JOURNAL reports.

House and Senate Republicans had calculated that they needed an increase of $690 billion to cover funding needs, but party leaders now have chosen to seek the higher figure intended to carry the Treasury until the next fiscal year begins in October 2005.

The increase would be the third in as many years and bring the debt limit to $8.184 trillion -- 37% higher than the ceiling that President Bush inherited in 2001." The Senate is "expected to take up the bill today in anticipation of a final vote tomorrow night.

NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures surged to a fresh 16-1/4-year peak on Friday morning, hoisted by a sharply weaker dollar after bearish comments on the currency by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

It was the sixth-straight session featuring a new multiyear peak for the dollar-denominated precious metal, as a lower greenback boosted the buying power of non-U.S. investors.

December delivery gold was up $3.20 at $446.10 an ounce at 10:08 a.m. EST (1508 GMT) on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division, trading from $441.90 to $446.70, which was futures' highest mark since July 1988.

The dollar tumbled to a four-year low against the yen and neared an all-time low versus the euro Friday after Greenspan said appetite for dollar investments would eventually wane.

"There's some light buying in here after what Greenspan said about the dollar, and the euro is rallying," said a gold floor broker.

The market seemed to shrug off news the Bank of France agreed to sell 500 to 600 tonnes of its gold reserves over the next five years. The bank did not give a start date for the sale, saying its governor would decide on the timing according to market conditions.

Meanwhile, in remarks prepared for delivery to a European bankers conference in Frankfurt, Greenspan said: "It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point."

Gold's role as a classic haven during economic and geopolitical uncertainty has attracted investors as well. Its price is up nearly 40 percent from its low last year at $320.

Traders also witnessed renewed bank buying in gold Friday, after a bout of profit-taking in the previous session, when the new bullion-backed streetTRACKS Gold Shares exchange-traded fund had its much-hyped debut on the New York Stock Exchange.

Initial resistance in December gold was pegged at $447.60, and then at $450 and $452, with support seen at $440 and $439.

Spot gold bolted to a 16-1/4-year high at $446.05 an ounce on the strong euro. That was up from Thursday's late quote in New York at $442.95/3.70. Friday's early London fix was $443.70 an ounce.

Analysts said $450 remained the price target for gold over the medium term, although it had a potential to correct lower toward $430, or even $425, due to the top-heavy and growing speculative net long position on COMEX.

The euro traded at $1.3054, off from $1.3075 on Thursday, as dealers expected finance ministers in the Group of 20 meeting in Berlin beginning on Friday will not move to slow the greenback's slide.

December silver rose 5.8 cents to $7.61 an ounce, trading from $7.50 to $7.65. Spot touched $7.57/60, up from $7.52/55 at the close. London's fix was at $7.585.

http://www.reuters.com

Related Story:11-18-04 Buyers pile into first gold ETF offering -- BOSTON (CBS.MW) - By lunchtime on its first day of trading, StreetTracks Gold Shares traded over 3.7 million shares, well over the 2.3 million underwritten shares that were priced in the initial public offering. After a long wait and much anticipation, the first exchange-traded fund that invests directly in gold bullion began trading on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday.

Gold Continues Its Run Higher With Most Observers Clueless -Bill Murphy, LeMetropole Cafe 11-17-04 -- As bad as the gold market commentary has been over the years, it is actually getting worse as the price rises. The apologists for The Gold Cartel, and those influenced by their public utterances, look for material to spin to the public to justify the price advance and to nullify the importance of the rise especially since almost NONE of them are bullish, or predicted the move up over the past three to four years. At least they are consistent. The Wall Street bullion bank personnel are supposedly among the smartest folks in the investment world. However, when it comes to gold, they qualify for the nitwit category, or worse, the crookedly influenced category. Take your pick.

The word circulating on the floor and in various establishment quarters is that gold is going up mainly due to enormous buying to fund the new ETFs coming on stream. I have checked around and find this to be one big crock. Why:

Over the past couple of weeks, and during this phase of the gold move, the price is only reflecting dollar weakness. Gold is not going up in foreign currency terms for the most part. We already know there are huge buyers out there, like the Indians and Chinese. If this run-up was substantially aided by ETF buying, gold would have exploded under these circumstances and risen in all currencies.

11-17-04 -- Dollar's pain is gold's gain -CNN...Gold for December delivery rose $4.60 to settle at $445.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, the highest close since mid-1988. Investors looking for safeguards against economic uncertainty and geopolitical unrest have turned in recent months to gold and other precious metals.

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to its lowest in more than four years against the yen and dropped versus the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said foreign investors will tire of financing the record current-account deficit.

``Given the size of the U.S. current-account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point,'' he said at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt.

Against the yen, the dollar fell to 102.98 at 9:36 a.m. in New York from 104.18 late yesterday, according to electronic currency dealing system EBS. It fell as low as 102.92, the weakest since April 2000. The U.S. currency also declined to $1.3044 per euro from $1.2961. The dollar has dropped to five records against the euro in two weeks.

``This is very dollar negative,'' said Mark Austin, head of currency strategy at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. ``The Fed has concluded that the current-account deficit is unsustainable and it would rather have some controlled dollar depreciation now than a dollar crisis at some point later on.''

The dollar's decline began earlier today on speculation finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 economies, who gather today in Berlin, will fail to agree on the need to halt the U.S. currency's slide. Greenspan will attend the meetings.

``The dollar bears could not have hoped for better comments than this,'' said David Mann, a currency strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London. ``All the comments are very, very negative especially given that Greenspan had been leaving dollar comments to the U.S. Treasury secretary.''

Widening Shortfall

The shortfall in the current account widened to a record $166.2 billion in the second quarter. The gap is equivalent to 5.7 percent of gross domestic product, up from 5.1 percent in the first quarter, meaning the U.S. economy needs to attract about $1.8 billion a day to maintain the value of the dollar, based on Bloomberg calculations. The current account is a measure of trade, services, tourism and investments.

``International investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable,'' Greenspan said.

Greenspan's comments suggest U.S. officials favor a weaker currency, said Michael Woolfolk, a currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York. U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said in London on Nov. 17 that agreements to manage currencies are ``at best unrewarding and checkered.''

Rebuffing Europe

Snow's comments have been interpreted by some traders as a rebuff to European complaints about the pace of the dollar's decline. German Economy Minister Wolfgang Clement said in an interview that European Central Bank, U.S. and Asian policy makers should take action.

The G-20 includes the Group of Seven industrialized nations plus the biggest emerging economies.

``I don't think you're going to get a coordinated effort'' to push the dollar higher, said James McCormick, head of currency strategy in London at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ``U.S. policy makers are happy with a weaker dollar as long as it's an orderly move.''

`Big Story'

Lehman, the most accurate forecaster of exchange rates in a Bloomberg survey last quarter, yesterday lowered its predictions for the dollar on expectations record U.S. current-account and budget deficits will diminish demand for the U.S. currency.

``The big story for 2005 is that the dollar downtrend continues,'' said McCormick. The bank cut its three-month dollar forecasts to $1.34 per euro from $1.30 and to 102 yen from 104. ``As we move into the second half of the year the yen really takes on the lead in this dollar down-move.''

Gains in Asian currencies will outpace the euro, which may peak at $1.40 next year, according to Lehman. ``The nascent rally in Asian currencies continues to gain pace as markets recognize the seismic shift in Asian currency policy that is currently under way,'' McCormick wrote in a weekly report.

South Korea's won is heading for the biggest weekly advance against the dollar in six years, having soared 2.9 percent, and yesterday reached its strongest since 1997. The won rose as Finance Minister Lee Hun Jai told reporters in Seoul yesterday the government will be guided by ``the market's supply and demand'' on exchange rates.

CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) - President Bush will sign into law by Monday a measure authorizing an $800,000,000,000.00 (billion) increase in the credit limit of the United States, the White House said.

In a statement issued late on Thursday after Congress gave its final approval to increase the limit to a new $8,184,000,000,000.00 (trillion) ceiling, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the legislation "was important to protect the full faith and credit of the United States."

"The president intends to sign it into law before the close of business on Monday," McClellan said in the statement.

LONDON - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow reassured critics Wednesday that America is dealing with its huge budget and trade deficits, but discounted any suggestions of official intervention to prop up the ailing U.S. dollar.

Even as the dollar hit an all-time low against the euro, Snow repeated the U.S. position: The administration is committed to a strong dollar, and looks to the market to set its value.

"We believe in open, competitive currency markets," Snow said in a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. "We think the world functions best with free trade and free capital flows. Nobody has ever devalued their way to prosperity."

European leaders have urged the United States to reduce its widening budget deficit to stop the chronic slide in the dollar, which plumbed new depths Wednesday with the euro reaching $1.3047.

Snow declined to comment on the value of the dollar.

"Why do I support a strong dollar policy?" he responded. "The answer is because it is our policy."

Snow, who will meet with representatives of the Group of 20 major industrial and developing nations in Berlin over the weekend, acknowledged that the United States had to promote greater savings to reduce its current account deficit but added that it was a "shared responsibility."

Snow said more flexible currencies in Asia and reforms by other countries to foster stronger growth were also needed to shrink the deficit, which is running at close to 6 percent of gross domestic product.

He singled out France's pension system, Italy's tax system and Japan's banking and retail sectors for reform.

"This isn't the United States preaching to Europe or Japan," he said. "This is all of us acknowledging the share of responsibility we have to make the world a better place, to create more even growth across the globe."

THE IN-CREDIBLE SHRINKING DOLLAR 11-16-04 -- Craig R. Smith, SATC -- The U.S. dollar has lost over 40% of it's buying power since 2001 -- and that's under Bush's "strong dollar" policy! Can you image what's ahead over the next four years for the heavily indebted dollar? I can: A surge in the cost of living! It's 'We the People' who are the ultimate victims of the shrinking dollar.

Snow: U.S. backs a strong dollar 11-15-04 -- DUBLIN (Reuters) - The United States backs a strong dollar but believes the currency market should determine exchange rates based on fundamentals, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Monday during a visit to Ireland.

"I've had a tradition of never commenting on the relative exchange value of the dollar," Snow told journalists travelling with him during a European tour.

"Secondly, our policy on the dollar is well known. We support a strong dollar. A strong dollar is in America's interest. Currency values are best set in open, competitive exchange markets," he added.

The dollar fell to a seven-month low versus the yen Monday as it resumed recent weakness due to concerns about the growing U.S. current account deficit.

Early Monday, the euro bought $1.2943, down from $1.2977 late Friday, and below the all-time high of $1.3005 hit early last week. The dollar bought �105.49, down from �105.57 late Friday.

Snow's comments came amid speculation the Bush administration tacitly approves the dollar's decline, without saying so officially for fear of spurring a faster fall in its value.

Officially, however, Snow has repeatedly maintained the U.S. backs a strong dollar and feels that currencies' values should be set in open markets.

Light crude for December delivery jumped $1.63 to $47.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for gained $1.53 to $44.25.

"There are two stories at work here, one fundamental and one is a trader issue," said Rick Mueller, an oil analyst with Energy Security Analysis, Inc.

Mueller said that a new weather report predicting a colder-than-usual winter in the U.S. Northeast has traders worried that there will be a run on heating oil.

"Distillate fuel stocks are toward the bottom of the five-year average," he said. "We're at the lower end of comfortable."

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday in a revised forecast that winter would be likely to bring warmer-than-normal conditions in the West and colder temperatures in the East, including the heavy-consuming Northeast, Reuters reported.

FRANKFURT, Nov. 12 - Bruno E. Silzer insists he is too busy to worry about exchange rates. But Mr. Silzer, chairman of the German fashion house Hugo Boss, has kept a watchful eye on the galloping euro.

"We're still doing fine," he said in an interview Friday, as the euro skirted another record of $1.30 against the dollar. "Even if it goes to $1.40, that would be O.K. But above that, it would be a problem."

Europe is in the midst of another bout of angst about its currency, which has risen nearly 7 percent in the last two months, amid signs the Bush administration will tolerate a prolonged weakness in the dollar.

The skittishness has been compounded by new data showing that Europe's recovery sputtered in the third quarter - dragged down by its two anchor economies, Germany and France. Each grew just 0.1 percent, compared with the previous three months, well below expectations.

The reason the rising euro is viewed with such alarm is because it could choke off the exports - like Hugo Boss shoes and Mercedes sedans - that have been the engine of Europe's recovery. In Germany, where consumer spending is moribund, exports supply what little momentum the country has.

But the strengthening euro is only one of multiple forces buffeting Europe. Rising oil prices were probably the bigger culprit for the latest weak numbers, according to economists. In France, which released new figures Friday, exports and consumer spending were both sluggish.

"French consumption was extremely strong at the beginning of this year," said Nicolas Sobczak, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Paris. "We knew there would be a correction, but it was deeper than we expected."

The bad news in France and Germany more than offset better results in Belgium and Greece, to leave the 12-nation "euro zone" with an overall growth rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter. Greece reaped a one-time gain from the Olympic Games, which brought tourists and trade to Athens.

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- When Treasury Secretary John Snow yesterday once again indicated the U.S. wouldn't attempt to stem the dollar's slide against the euro, the U.S. currency fell another notch. Analysts and European politicians complained about U.S. indifference to its responsibilities.

Who's kidding whom here? What is it the Europeans would like to see the U.S. do?

A quick glance at the trade statistics shows that the dollar's decline actually hasn't hurt Europe very much so far. The inevitable pain associated with capping and shrinking the huge U.S. current account deficit really is yet to come, and there is nothing the U.S. can or should do to try to prevent it.

Such endless fixation of foreign-exchange markets on whether the U.S. will continue to hew to a ``strong dollar'' policy is bizarre and always has been bizarre, because there has never been such a policy.

Typically, the value of a currency is determined primarily by a nation's monetary policy. However, only on rare occasions -- and none of them recently -- has the Federal Reserve given significant weight to the dollar's value in making its interest- rate decisions. Certainly it isn't doing so today, and neither Snow nor any of his recent predecessors have pressed the Fed to act to support the currency.

Fed Is Acting

As for fiscal policy, which can affect national savings and has an indirect impact on the dollar's value, you can be sure that the dollar's value hasn't had any effect on the tax and spending choices made by President George W. Bush or Congress.

In some ways, the puzzle has been why the dollar hasn't fallen faster and further, given the rapid expansion of the U.S. current account deficit to almost 6 percent of gross domestic product and the need to shrink it. That process unavoidably will involve a big drop for the dollar.

For purely domestic reasons, including keeping inflation under control, the Fed is already raising its target for the overnight lending rate. Do the critics of U.S. policy want faster and larger rate increases that could slow economic growth and provide support for the dollar?

European Central Bank

From a European point of view, that wouldn't make much sense because slower U.S. growth would also diminish demand for foreign imports, including those from Europe. After all, the worry on the Continent is that the falling dollar will make the price of euro- zone exports uncompetitive in the U.S. That in turn could leave European economies dead in the water since the bulk of their growth is dependent on those exports.

European Central Bank officials, focused on their 2 percent inflation target, have repeatedly rebuffed pleas from various government leaders to cut interest rates to spur economic growth. They are unlikely to cut rates as part of an attempt to halt the euro's appreciation.

Of course, if for whatever reason European growth were to slow enough to cause inflation to fall significantly, the ECB would respond.

The Europeans have said repeatedly that they would like the U.S. government to reduce its very large budget deficit as a step toward improving national savings and the U.S.'s need for foreign capital inflows.

Account Deficit's Reality

On the other hand, such a reduction in the capital inflow that finances the yawning U.S. current account deficit would go hand in hand with a reduction in the trade deficit -- and once again mean a drop in demand for European exports.

This is the awful reality about the U.S. current account deficit for the rest of the world: Reducing it means that U.S. exports eventually will have to increase much more rapidly than imports. In other words, other countries collectively will have to absorb more U.S. goods and services while exporting relatively less to this country.

The numbers are striking. Through September of this year, the U.S. had imported goods and services worth $1.295 trillion while exports totaled only $850 billion. That means that just to stabilize the deficit, exports would have to increase more than 50 percent faster than imports.

The Numbers

In the first nine months of this year, Western Europe exported $83 billion more in goods and services than it imported from the U.S. That U.S. deficit was $10 billion higher than in the comparable period of 2003 even though the value of the euro was almost 10 percent higher in the same period this year.

According to the Fed's broad trade-weighted dollar index, the currency's value, adjusted for inflation, peaked in February 2002 when the euro was worth just under 87 cents. Last month the euro averaged close to $1.28, about a 32 percent increase. However, the Labor Department's index of prices for imported goods from European Union countries was up less than 14 percent over the same period.

There is usually a substantial lag between changes in relative currency values and changes in traded-goods prices. Nevertheless, it seems clear European exporters have absorbed a substantial share of the increase in the euro's value in order to hold onto their markets.

Japan and China

In the case of Japan, government intervention helped keep the yen from appreciating early this year. Other fluctuations in the yen's value over the past several years have had very little impact on the prices paid by U.S. importers of Japanese goods. Between early 2001 and early 2002, the yen plunged to about 134 to the dollar from 110. It then reversed course and strengthened substantially through the second half of last year.

In contrast, the price index for Japanese imports to the U.S. has changed only slightly and currently is about 5 percent lower -- not higher -- than it was when the dollar peaked in early 2002.

And then there is China with its pegged currency, about which Snow and the Europeans all complain regularly, to no avail.

The Europeans are right to say they shouldn't have to bear all the burden of adjustment as the U.S. current account comes down. China, Japan and other Asian countries with pegged or largely pegged currencies should do their part, though like everyone else, they don't want to lose their export markets.

* Continued weakness of the U.S. dollar vs. foreign currencies.
* Prices of other commodities are rising as expressed by CRB index.
* The price of oil has risen, causing inflationary pressures.
* Overvaluation of the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.
* Consumer confidence is falling due to scandals/investigations on Wall St.
* The potential of future terrorism and "financial terrorism".
* The trend of diminished gold mine producer hedging/increased "buy backs".
* The worlds central banks have loaned significantly more gold than previously reported, resulting in inventories half the size previously believed by the public.
* Strong demand for gold from Asian/Arab countries, gold dinar launch.
* The annual shortfall of physical gold between world mine production and world consumption to over 1,500 tons.
* The technical breakout of gold out of 15-year downtrend back in 2001.
* The potential of a "slingshot" short covering rally caused by producers and bullion banks that are massively short gold.
* The looming annual $500B U.S. budget deficits and $500B trade deficits. $8.18 Trillion Debt Ceiling, up $800B in 2004.

DOWNSIDE RISK?

Even the most bullish stock ananlysts will concede that today the potential of an ongoing bear market
in stocks and the U.S. dollar is possible -- because all markets are cyclical in nature. Smart money is
beginning to understand that we are in a major paradigm shift in which investors sell paper denominated
assets and buy hard assets like gold and other commodities.

With all of this as a backdrop, I ask you to consider your downside risk on gold - perhaps 10-15%.
Now, consider your upside potential if gold bullion moves to $500, $600 or EVEN $1,000 in the next
few years. That would be 25%-250% increase from the current $440 price. But that is just the potential
of gold bullion. The upside potential of investment grade U.S. rare coins is two to three times higher than
bullion, based on past performance (1980-2003).

Forget about stocks for a moment, the attention now is shifting toward the gold market. Gold spiked $13.80 per ounce on May 18, 2001 - about 5 percent. This surprisingly strong advance was the long-slumbering precious metal's biggest gain in 15 months. Why?

Let�s add it up: the money supply is soaring... consumer prices are rising... and the Fed is cutting rates. No matter how you slice it, inflation is on the ascent.

In his frantic effort to avoid a recession Alan Greenspan has opened the floodgate of money - increasing the total money supply by a staggering 28 percent in the first three months of 2001.

According to Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letter, �Gold loves it. Throw an extra trillion dollars into the mix and it's got to stir up something. That something is housing, medical bills, restaurant prices, sports tickets, utility bills, and well - most of the items you buy in daily life.�

In fact, almost all measures of inflation are accelerating at a time when the Fed is stepping on the accelerator to stimulate demand.

Bloomberg.com said, �The Fed has lost sight of its long-run objective of price stability. Rising inflation would be one thing if the raw material of inflation - money - was signaling disinflation ahead. Instead, April will be the fifth consecutive month to see double-digit annualized increases in the broad monetary aggregates, M2 and M3.�

What will this inflationary trend mean for a skittish stock market, and how will increasing bankruptcies affect the banking system? More...

From September 26, 1999 through that date in 2004, The Gold Cartel dumped an average of 8 tonnes of central bank gold per week from the European signatories to the Washington Agreement - which limited sales to 400 tonnes per year. A big deal was months ago about the new agreement allowing 500 tonnes to be sold per year. Then concerns surfaced from the likes of UBS Paine Webber they might not even be able to come up with 250 tonnes per year. Thus far they aren't even selling gold at that rate.

Then, mine supply is going to shrink in the years to come due to mine high grading in years gone by and lack of exploration finds due to the artificially suppressed gold price of years past. It wasn't worth it to find gold and then lose money mining it. Mine supply is going down for years to come no matter WHAT the price does.

Not only that, this supply shrinkage will accelerate unless the gold price goes much higher from there. Skyrocketing costs are hurting the profits of gold mining companies in a major league way. A number are not doing much better than when gold was at $300 per ounce. Some mines in production today will be closed unless the gold price takes off from the $400 area.

With oil soaring at the $50 level, commodity prices in the US close to 23-year highs, the dollar sinking fast and the physical market on fire in countries like India, the price-fixing scheme is on its last legs. Of most importance is the surging cash market. The Russians, Chinese, Arabs and Indians are all competing for cheap gold the foolish western central bankers have been dumping. The buying premiums bid by local dealers in India in the international gold market are at levels normally seen at market bottoms, not market tops. They need the gold that badly.

The gold price is going to go ballistic.

For those of you who would like more information about GATA and the evidence of the massive gold price-fixing scheme we have uncovered over the last 6 years, please go to www.GATA.org.

Or stop by our booth here at this conference and inquire about our GATA luncheon in the Armstrong Ballroom this Sunday at 12:30. The GATA Generals will all be there to interact with you and answer any questions you may have.

As I rap up, I would like to say my role as chairman of GATA has been the most valuable and rewarding experience of my life. In addition to meeting so many charming/bright people around the world, I found out, for the FIRST time, what was really going on in the business, financial press, and political world. Up until this time I didn't have any idea how clueless I was. Unfortunately, this new education has shown a light on a very ugly part of America, one which the elitists in New York and Washington do not want any of us regular Americans to know about.

It is a subject which I could go on about hours - and I touch on it only at this juncture because I believe it is critically important it be brought to your attention.

Most Americans don't understand why our country is despised around the world. Even one of my TV favorites, Chris Mathews of CNBC's Hardball and a speaker here a few years ago, will tell you that is so. The reason is because our visible leaders speak with forked tongue. And this is the critical point to take home: The American power structure preaches one thing and does another.

We say we have free markets, but we don't. In Orwellian style the power structure in New York and Washington rig our financial markets when it suits them best, yet fails to inform the American public, only their high powered friends.

We say we want to help the poor around the world, like in sub-Saharan Africa, and then the Clinton and Bush Administrations intentionally devastate their economies by artificially suppressing the gold price and LIE about it in the process.

We say we have free speech, yet GATA can be heard around the world, except in the US. The financial press in this country won't allow our NAME to be printed. CNBC has blackballed us for six years since they heard what I had to say in a Ron Insana interview soon after our inception. The WSJ, W POST, Bloomberg, Barron's refuse to acknowledge us. For crying out loud, GATA has to go to the Russians to get our word out there. I have seriously wondered at times what the Cold War was fought for.

No time to go on and on. The point is this, GATA has uncovered some incredible wrongs in this country. Wrongs which I personally believe will lead to financial market chaos in the years to come and affect everyone here in some way. It is time to do what we can to correct those wrongs before it is too late.

As I understand it, the American Revolution was instigated by only a few bunch of rabble rousers protesting what the British were doing. THEY could see the injustices. Most others at the time went along with the MAINSTREAM British. Those rabble rousers kept protesting and soon it became obvious they were right and more and more Americans joined in and eventually led to our great country coming into being.

I ask you Americans here to consider this: When you were growing up and watched movies about the American Revolution, who did you rout for - the Americans or the British? Before you dismiss what GATA has to say, you might want to contemplate who you are routing for today and what ramifications it may have for your kids in the years and decades to come.

Jim Rogers wrapped up the conference yesterday, as always, with a
brilliantly entertaining presentation, including slides and a video
of his 3-year global odyssey.

"And when we got back to New York in 2001, we were pretty darn
tired," recalled the Adventure Capitalist, "so we decided to stay at
home and relax a while. And that's where we received the final
surprise... and the best surprise of the whole trip, in fact. We
found out my wife, Paige, was pregnant. And now, here she is... my
baby girl."

And with that, a picture of Rogers, all smiles, cuddling his
daughter, is projected on three giant screens at the front of the
ballroom.

"Ahhhh" went the crowd...

When Rogers had finished presenting the slides from his world
record-breaking trip, he elaborated on some of his investments, and
some of the major themes he's paying attention to in today's
markets.

"Well, I can tell you, the Chinese are some of the most capitalist
people on earth. And it's a different capitalism to what you might
have thought. In China, they save almost 20% of their incomes,
compared to 2% here in the U.S. and in China, they don't worry about
how many vacation days they might get, no, they worry about how many
days they are allowed to work."

The 19th century belonged to the U.K., once the richest and most
powerful nation on earth. The 20th century belonged to the U.S., but
the 21st century, predicts Rogers, will belong to China. "I recommend
you all start to learn mandarin, and tell your children and
grandchildren to do the same... I'm not just saying it either... my
baby girl has a Chinese nanny, who only speaks mandarin. And already,
my baby girl is starting to pick up some of the words."

Despite his confidence in China's emergence, Rogers expects a hard
landing for China at some point in the next 12 months...

Rogers' next topic for discussion was the U.S. dollar. "It's probably
overdue for a rally. They've been hitting it pretty hard recently. I
wouldn't even be surprised to see a large bounce... but don't listen
to me, my market timing is horrible... "

"What's much more important, is that Americans owe $8 trillion to the
rest of the world," he offers, "and it's only gonna git worse. The
dollar is a fundamentally flawed currency, and still has a long way
to fall."

"MY BABY GIRL DON'T OWN ANY DOLLARS.

You know what she's got... a Swiss bank account. That's right.
All her money's in Swiss francs."

The dollar closed Friday at $1.2972 versus the euro, having made a
new intraday high at $1.3004 earlier in the day. The euro has never
before traded as high.

For his own account, Rogers owns a basket of 16 international
currencies and some Chinese equities. "But if you wanna know where I
think the rally big money is, and the best way to play China, it's
natural resources and commodities."

Your editors, here at the Daily Reckoning, wholeheartedly agree.
China needs lead. It needs nickel. It needs tin... and rubber and
copper and cotton. There's nothing that can change the basic demand
for these commodities over the medium to long term. Nothing. And what
this means for you, says the former trading partner of George Soros,
well, it will simply be the easiest way to make a lot of money in the
coming decade. And when asked by a member of the audience to list his
favorite commodities, Rogers named sugar, cotton and orange juice, in
that order.

"My baby girl won't be selling her portfolio of commodities until oil
hits $150 a barrel and they're drilling on the front lawn of the
White House. Or until cotton hits $4 and they're growing it in
Central Park."

Oil fell over 5% last week, closing at $47.32, providing a boon for
the stock market. The Dow is now in positive territory for the year,
having gained 151 points last week. The Industrials Index closed at
10,539. The S&P and the Nasdaq were also higher. The Nasdaq gained 46
to 2,085 while the S&P closed up 18 to 1,184.

"What about gold?" asked another member of the audience, as gold was
hitting a fresh 16-year high, gaining $4.50 on the week to close at
$437.90.

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- As U.S. President George W. Bush prepares to ``spend political capital'' to reform the retirement system, the best way of telling if his emerging plan is sound is to watch from the summit of the bond market.

If Bush and Congress fail to prudently fund Social Security and Medicare, it may mean paring benefits or selling mountains of government debt to pay for the increasing costs of retiring baby boomers. That may increase interest rates and hurt everyone, from homebuyers to corporate treasurers.

Due to an aging population, fewer future workers and rising health-care spending, the Medicare hospital insurance fund will be broke in 14 years, and the Social Security program trust fund will be bust by 2042. These scenarios aren't just a crisis in the U.S.; every industrial country faces them.

All told, the two U.S. programs represent a black hole of unfunded future liabilities of $43 trillion, estimates Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University and author of ``The Coming Generational Storm'' (MIT Press, 2004).

``How are we going to pay these bills?'' asks Kotlikoff. ``The government will have to print more money and you'd want to sell your bonds. Maybe the (projected double-digit) rise in interest rates would get the politicians' attention.''

Social Security Solutions

``If I were holding bonds, I'd be very nervous,'' Kotlikoff adds. ``He (Bush) seems geared up to make an extremely bad fiscal situation worse by cutting Social Security taxes,'' Kotlikoff says.

Bush has proposed peeling off 2 percent from existing payroll taxes to fund private accounts that retirees would control and manage on their own.

``I agree with the president that we need to radically reform the Social Security system, but it needs to be done in a fiscally responsible manner,'' Kotlikoff says. How would he define ``responsible''? He favors introducing:

-- A federal sales tax to ``pay off the Social Security benefits owed under the old system.''

-- Replacing the current payroll tax with ``equivalent compulsory contributions under the personal security accounts.''

-- Individually owned, low-expense accounts within Social Security would be offered and all be automatically invested in a global index fund of stocks, bonds and real estate so that ``everyone would get the same return.''

-- The government would match contributions into the accounts for those who are disabled or unemployed. The funds would be converted into inflation-protected pensions between the ages of 57 and 67.

"A vast array of articles and notes pass across my desk every day. However, imagine my alarm to arrive at work this morning to see an article in the Wall Street Journal Online with the headline 'Internet Boom is Under Way, Says Morgan Stanley's Meeker'. I was so incensed I was forced to put pen to paper once again. Surely this can't be happening again. I know I always hark on about how the psychological evidence shows it is incredibly hard for people to learn, but surely investors must have learnt something from the experience of the bubble years!

"The article quotes Meeker as saying 'The enthusiasm was well placed, it just got ahead of itself in many respects... As we have said for a long time, from a wealth creation standpoint, we believe we lived through a boomlet, followed by a bust, followed by a boom.'

"The proof of this renewed boom? 'The combined market value of eBay Inc., Google Inc., Yahoo Inc., Yahoo Japan Corp. and Amazon.com Inc., which was $231 billion as of Wednesday' according to the WSJ!

"So simply because the market has risen the boom is back? This seems to be a little odd to me, but what would I know, after all I'm still a dinosaur who thinks that valuation matters. Even a cursory glance at the [figures] below shows that no investor who has even the vaguest respect for any concept of valuation could go near the stocks mentioned by the WSJ. The average PE across the four stocks is 121x, a 13x Price to Book, and 15x Price to sales.

"Now, as regular readers will know, I think price to sales is one of the most meaningless concepts ever thought up. The sheer ridiculousness of the measure is revealed by reductio ad absurdum. Imagine I set up a business selling 20 pound notes for 19 pounds, strangely enough I will never ever make any money, my volume may be enormous but it will always be profitless. But I won't care as long as the market values me on price to sales.

[Readers - please note that PE stands for Price to Earnings ratios, PB stands for Price to Book rations, and PS stands for Price to Sale. - JM]

But even forgetting my gripes, 15x sales is quite simply insane. The following quotation comes from high tech insider, Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems

" 'But two years ago we were selling at 10 times revenues when we were at $64. At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?' (Scott McNealy, BusinessWeek, April 2002)

"So a tech insider tells you that 10x sales is insane, yet the WSJ cites internet stocks trading on 15x as evidence of an internet boom! Looks more like yet more evidence of the collective madness of investors once again to us.

"Nor is Meeker alone in her proclamations. The venerable Fred Hickey, author of The High-Tech Strategist, cites Jim Cramer, self announced market maven, former Hedge fund manager and columnist for TheStreet.com as returning to the fray. Cramer recently opined 'The only way to catch up is to join the crowd... They are buying Google because, what the heck, when the market's up buy Google... There simply aren't enough trading days left to make a lot of money... The clock is ticking... The downside will be very limited here because the feeling you felt in your stomach when the market opened up huge is the feeling that comes from recognizing 'Darn it all, I gotta get in.' Because you do.'

"Well that is all right then, invest because you have a feeling in your stomach, just make sure it isn't trapped wind! Investors falling over themselves to buy tech are the investment equivalent of Pavlovian dogs. Just in case you aren't aware, Pavlov was a pioneer in conditioning. He showed that if a bell was reliably rung before dogs were fed, eventually the dogs would start salivating when they heard the bell, even if no food were present. Meeker, Cramer et al are the bell with nothing behind them.

"Keynes noted 'Our decisions to do something... the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits - of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.'

"The boom isn't back; rather it is the bubble mentality that has never left. Investors cling to the hope that the good times are about to return, urged on by the dream selling bubble blowers. However, conditioning doesn't last forever. Eventually investors will learn that investing in overvalued tech stocks is a short cut to the road to ruin. Unfortunately, this lesson is likely to prove an expensive one once again."

Sharply expanding global trade has been a major force driving global growth to the upside over the past decade. It has also been the engine of cross-border economic integration -- key to success on the road to globalization. With an unbalanced world now facing unprecedented disparities between current account surpluses and deficits, the trade-dependent global growth dynamic faces a stern test. The politicization of trade frictions and the heightened risks of protectionism could well be a major wildcard for the global economy in 2005 and for years to come.

Over the 1996 to 2004 period, world trade volumes have increased at a 6.4% average annual rate, according to IMF statistics -- nearly 70% faster than the 3.8% pace of world GDP growth over this same nine-year interval. Putting it another way, world exports of goods and services have expanded by $4.2 trillion (in US dollars) over the 1996 to 2004 period -- a surge that accounts for fully 41% of the cumulative increase in world GDP over this interval. There can be no mistaking the growing role that rapidly expanding trade has played in powering the global growth dynamic.

Yet the risk is that we take this force for granted in assessing global growth prospects in the years ahead. The reason is that there are now unprecedented disparities in external imbalances -- current-account and trade balances -- that are straining the fabric of free trade and globalization. In 2004, our estimates suggest that the gap between current account deficits and surpluses rose to nearly 3% of world GDP -- a record for the modern-day global economy.

Largely at work were two major developments on the trade front -- unprecedented deficits in the United States and huge surpluses in Asia. The last time the world had a problem with trade and external imbalances was in the latter half of the 1980s. During that period, the disparities between deficits and surpluses only amounted to about 1% of world GDP. This time around, the magnitude of the problem is three times worse than it was back then.

I have long argued that this profound imbalance is an outgrowth of a huge flaw in the macro structure of a US-centric global economy. America, for its part, likes to feel victimized by its enormous trade deficits and the pressures on manufacturing companies and job creation that such imbalances are perceived to have spawned.

But these trends are very much a by-product of an unprecedented shortfall of national saving -- a net national saving rate that has plunged to a record low of 1-2% over the 2003-04 period. Lacking in domestic saving, the US must import surplus foreign saving in order to grow. And it must run massive current-account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital -- inflows that are now up to $2.6 billion per business day as America�s current account deficit ballooned to 5.7% of GDP in mid-2004. At this rate, America�s current account deficit now absorbs more than 80% of the world�s surplus saving.

But this is a global problem, and the United States deserves only part of the blame. In the zero-sum world of trade flows, every deficit has a surplus on the other side of the ledger -- even if the global growth accounts can�t quite get the figures to add. And that�s, of course, where the surplus nations of Asia -- and, to a lesser extent, Europe -- enter the equation. These economies are in many respects the mirror image of America -- externally-dependent growth machines that enjoy limited support from internal demand, especially private consumption. As such, exports have become their lifeline and export competitiveness has become the overriding imperative of their growth agendas. It�s at this point where the world�s trade dynamic has taken an especially dangerous twist in recent years.

In order to prevent their currencies from rising and thereby putting pressure on competitiveness, surplus nations have recycled massive reservoirs of foreign exchange reserves back into dollar-denominated assets in order to support the US dollar. That is the functional equivalent of a subsidy to US interest rates -- further fueling the voracious appetite of already over-extended and saving-short American consumers. In essence, that�s the basic conundrum of today�s unbalanced global economy: It is not a stable arrangement. A bi-polar world of consumers (the United States) and producers (mainly Asia) is on an exceedingly reckless path that is leading to ever-wider disparities between current-account deficits and surpluses.

How and when this gets resolved is anyone�s guess. For what it�s worth, I think the pressures are building for a major adjustment in 2005. That�s what the recent decline in the dollar is all about. And that�s also the message to take from the ominous build-up of trade tensions. In my view, global imbalances have now gotten to the point where something has to give -- either the relative price structure (currencies) that shapes the mix of world trade and capital flows or the political commitment to the trade framework itself. This venting of global imbalances is a natural outgrowth of an increasingly unstable world.

Alfred C. Kinsey, the �Father� of the �Sexual Revolution�� and of modern sex education � was not an emotionally well man. Don�t accept Bill Condon�s and Liam Neeson�s version of Kinsey without learning for yourself more about the man and his legacy.

Alfred C. Kinsey�s life and work as a sex researcher have been debated for decades. But soon, director Bill Condon�s movie Kinsey will be released and paint a picture of a man who �liberated� America from its sexual repression.

The facts show a much darker reality � and you deserve to know the side that the movie will not show.

The facts tell a different story from the one Condon�s movie presents � that some of Kinsey's research subjects were children as young as 5 months old (see the table which replicates page 180 of Kinsey�s �Sexual Behavior in the Human Male�).

Ask yourself these questions: �Where did Kinsey get this information about children�s and infants� �orgasms�?� Did one �omniphile� work alone, as Kinsey�s defenders now declare? If so, why did Kinsey and his �research team� never turn this pedophile monster over to authorities? Or, more likely, were others involved (perhaps, as many allege, under Kinsey�s direction or influence)? Kinsey�s own records reveal that he interpreted children�s sobs, screams and struggles as �orgasms.�

In �Alfred C. Kinsey: A Public/Private Life,� author James H. Jones reveals a man hounded by his own socially unacceptable sexual desires � desires he had to either master or make socially acceptable. Jones writes, �Within a few years, Kinsey would avoid making any comments that betrayed his desire to influence social policy. His restraint was self-imposed, as he gradually came to realize that his ability to shape thinking, mores and the law rested entirely on his image.� Kinsey chose to normalize his own deviancies by making it appear that everyone was secretly involved in the very same behaviors they publicly pretended to loathe. His surveys were not random and scientific, as the movie alleges.

Visit http://www.KinseyOutreach.com for more information now.

Now, Provocative New Book Exposes the Truth about the "Scientist" Depicted in the Film Kinsey Hollywood Distortion: Sex, Lies, and Alfred Kinsey

Starring Academy Award nominee Liam Neeson and a host of "A-list" Hollywood actors and actresses, the film has been called "provocative," "erotic" and "potentially controversial" by the liberal media elite. In its pre-production months, Kinsey was called the "hottest script in town."

What Hollywood isn't telling the public is, well. . . very telling. The film portrays the life and work of a man who was almost single-handedly responsible for launching the Sexual Revolution in America, perpetuating massive child sexual abuse in the name of "science" and liberalizing laws against sexual crimes. His work has also negatively impacted two generations of students through amoral sex education.

We believe you need to read the new book, The Kinsey Corruption, published by Ascension Press, a Catholic publisher. Although we are not a Roman Catholic organization, we recommend this resource because of its great content and compact size (It�s perfect for handing out to friends.) The Kinsey Corruption dismantles the myth of Alfred C. Kinsey and his flawed sex research. We believe that you need to read The Kinsey Corruption to Set the Record Straight.