Gone are the days of the lumbering, super-sized heavyweights. Dos
Santos and Velasquez are leaner, meaner and pair power with speed.
Dos Santos is slightly younger, but both men are in the peak age
range for UFC fighters. Each will stand orthodox, with a 77-inch
reach. Dos Santos stands a little taller, perhaps diminishing any
hope of a miracle high kick from Velasquez.

These familiar opponents have been on tears in the UFC, rarely
going to a decision and averaging only five to six minutes per
fight. Hoping that their past injuries are behind them, they have
each enjoyed a seven-month layoff since their wins on the
all-heavyweight main card at UFC 146. The tale of the tape does not
reveal many advantages, but it does tell the story of two guys
fully capable of smashing their opponents.

In their last fight, all but the final seconds were spent standing,
and that is how these guys will start their rematch. Let us dive
into the almost 6,000 data points they have racked up in their time
in the Octagon:

Heavyweights stay standing more than any other weight class, and
that will play to the strength of the champion. Dos Santos was
already the best
striker in the heavyweight division before he put on a striking
clinic against Frank Mir, and
he carries sound technique, high accuracy, dominant pace and brutal
knockout power all in the same two hands.

A couple things are worth noting here. Both fighters have excelled
across offensive metrics, so both are excellent strikers. More
specifically, dos Santos’ training as a boxer is evident with his
sharp jab and dominant pace of action. He has nine knockdowns in
nine fights; his accuracy is way above the heavyweight average; and
he throws nearly two and half times as many strikes as opponents
while in a standing position. However, his tendency to box in lieu
of slugging it out also leads to his slightly lower share of power
strikes. Interestingly, while his accuracy significantly exceeds
that of his opponents, his opponents have been roughly average with
their own accuracy, meaning dos Santos’ defense is just average for
his division.

Velasquez is no slouch, either. He, too, has outpaced his foes in
standup striking and has done so with superior accuracy that is
also -- but to a lesser degree -- above the heavyweight average.
Plus, he throws a greater share of power strikes than the champion.
His clinch striking accuracy -- dirty boxing to some extent -- is
quite good and much better than dos Santos, though Velasquez’s
defense there lags. Most significantly, the challenger’s overall
striking defense is actually superior to the champion’s, as seen by
the low accuracy of Velasquez’s opponents compared to those of dos
Santos. This could be a byproduct of Velasquez’s wrestling ability,
as adversaries may have been more conservative in exchanges while
worrying about his takedowns.

The bottom line: despite Velasquez’s solid performance to date, dos
Santos has the edge here in striking. However, both of these
heavyweights wield knockout power, so as long as this fight is
standing, do not blink. Whoever can land a big strike first could
end this main event early. The numbers favor dos Santos, and their
last fight ended quickly after he landed an overhand right. That
being said, we have yet to see how Velasquez’s mobility on a
healthy knee will help his defense in avoiding the threat of the
champion’s striking.

We all want to see them stand and trade, but we cannot ignore the
ground game:

Velasquez has shown an aggressive wrestling attack, averaging 2.7
takedown attempts per round. He also lands those takedowns with
high success, about two-thirds of the time, which is well above the
UFC heavyweight average. Velasquez has wisely utilized the clinch
position for most of his takedowns, even incorporating slams on
occasion – an impressive feat in the weight class of giants. While
dos Santos has a similarly high success rate, he averages very few
attempts and clearly prefers to keep things standing.

Once on the ground, Velasquez has been quite active with
ground-and-pound. Rarely attempting submissions, he actively passes
guard and often ends up in side control or even full mount, where
he rains leathery bombs by the hundreds. Though his focus is on
striking volume -- and not submissions -- has led to frequent
opponent escapes and standups, there is no question he has been
absolutely dominant on the ground.

In stark contrast, dos Santos has barely attempted any ground game
at all -- a rarity for a Brazilian fighter. Still, the findings
here are less demonstrable, as opponents have not gotten the better
of him, either. Dos Santos has shown a similarly stout takedown
defense, and on the two occasions where he ended up on his back, he
was able to get back to his feet quickly without absorbing a single
strike. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt from Team Nogueira is
still waiting for a legitimate debut in the Octagon, and
Velasquez’s tendency to close the distance may provide the best
chance yet. The real unknown here is whether dos Santos can be
effective fighting off his back and actually lock a submission on a
seasoned wrestler. Generally speaking, submissions
in the heavyweight division are rare, but Velasquez’s
submission defense is untested in MMA competition. He has only
faced one guillotine choke attempt, while dos Santos has not faced
any submission attempts at all. It may be a longshot, but it adds
an unknown element to this rematch should the fight go to the
ground.

The Final Word

Sherdog.com File Photo

Las Vegas likes dos Santos’ odds.

The betting line here is close, much closer than
most title fights in recent history. As a -150 favorite, Vegas says
dos Santos has a 60-percent chance here. That is not a lot of
respect for the guy that handed Velasquez his only defeat -- and in
64 seconds no less. That is the reality of two dangerous
heavyweights facing off. They are both capable of finishing any
fight. While dos Santos will have the advantage standing and
Velasquez will have the edge in ground-and-pound, we will have to
wait and see who ends up landing the shot that closes out 2012 for
the UFC.

Note: Raw data for the analysis was provided by, and in
partnership with FightMetric. All analysis was
performed by Reed Kuhn. Reed Kuhn, Fightnomics, FightMetric and
Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights,
financial or otherwise.

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