Year in Review: Buchholz started ’09 in Triple-A, where he absolutely dominated opponents until his call-up in July. In his 99 innings with Pawtucket, Buchholz struck out 89 batters while walking 30. He had a 0.98 WHIP to go along with an impressive 52.5% ground-ball rate and a .194 batting average against. Once he was called up, Buchholz put together the best stretch he’s had in the Majors since his no-hitter in 2007. He struck out 68 batters in 92 big league innings, walking 36 and allowing 13 home runs. He kept to the worm-burner theme from the minors, getting grounders at a 53.8% rate. Buchholz continues to gain velocity each year, with his fastball clocking in at an average of 93.5 mph in ’09.

The Year Ahead: With his solid contributions late in the season and in the playoffs, Buchholz seems to have cemented a rotation spot in 2010. He should get better, as he learns how to strike hitters out at this level and keep the ball in the yard. For a pitcher with the great ground-ball rate that Buchholz has, his 15.7% HR/FB rate shows that he gets punished for mistakes on the mound, likely caused by leaving the ball up in the zone. Unless he can raise his strikeout numbers, Buchholz is a mediocre fantasy starter, but will be drafted higher than his numbers should allow because an owner thinks this will be “his year.” While it very well could be, don’t reach too far for a potentially low ERA and some Ws, because there is no evidence his Ks will return. (Zach Sanders)

Profile: Prior to 2010, Buchholz was amassing more and more doubters. He silenced most of them with a 2.33 ERA and 17 wins for the Red Sox. However, his peripherals don’t indicate that his 2010 was anything close to sustainable. His numbers look different than they did when he was first called up to the Bigs a few years ago. In 2007 and 2008, Buchholz was striking out almost a batter an inning, and relying heavily on his changeup and curveball. Now, his K/9 is sitting around 6.5, and he’s put more faith in his slider and has almost abandoned the curveball all together. While the strikeout rate has dropped, his walk rate really hasn’t, leaving him with a K/BB rate consistently under 2.0. As Buchholz has matured, we’ve seen his fastball velocity jump up a tick every year. That’s not to say that he’ll continue to gain velocity next season, but increased velocity could equal more strikeouts for the righty if he’d commit to using his heater more often. Buchholz is in line for some series regression in 2011, so paying for his 2010 shouldn’t be in your plans on draft day. (Zach Sanders)

The Quick Opinion: Prior to 2010, Buchholz was amassing more and more doubters. He silenced most of them 2.33 ERA and 17 wins for the Red Sox. However, his peripherals don’t indicate that his 2010 was anything close to sustainable.

Profile: After a spectacular 2010 in which Buchholz even garnered Cy Young attention, he was ineffective early on in 2011 and then lost by mid-June to some unseemly back issues for the remainder of the season. On the year, Buchholz threw 82 innings, registering a 3.48 ERA (4.34 FIP) with 6.52 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. His peripheral stats were still very much in line with 2010 with the exception of home runs allowed, which explains in large part why his xFIP in 2011 isn’t a far cry from 2010 -- 4.28 and 4.07, respectively. A couple concerns in 2011 was a declining swinging strike rate from 9.4% to 8.4% and a drop in velocity from 94.1 MPH average on his fastball to 92.3 MPH. He has an impressive repertoire, using six different pitches -- but it would be smart to pay attention to his velocity early in Spring. Buchholz comes with the kind of name recognition that will get him drafted higher than his fantasy usefulness, and you’re probably better off leaving him to another manager. (Michael Barr)

The Quick Opinion: Buchholz is coming off an injury-shortened season, and was previously the poster boy for outperforming the ERA predictors in 2010. He may strike you as a buy-low candidate, but you shouldn’t expect anything other than back-end rotation contributions in standard format leagues for 2012.

Profile: Buchholz flummoxed owners who tried and snag him late coming off an injury prone 2011 by putting up a 7.19 ERA over the first two months of the season, causing most owners to quickly sell on an asset they probably weren't terribly invested in to begin with. He quietly rebounded over the next four months, however (even while the Red Sox were imploding). His rest-of-season 3.45 ERA coincided with the addition of a splitter to Buchholz's repertoire which lined up nicely with a bump in offspeed swinging strike rate. His walk rate also dropped from 10.6% in April/May to 6.6% from June on; notable because his career average is 9.2%. Buchholz won't be flirting with triple-digits on his fastball anymore, but if he can maintain the low late-season walk rate and further develop the splitter, he should be a solid option for the back of any rotation and, unlike some other members of his tier, he has the upside to pitch like a #2 for most fantasy squads. (Colin Zarzycki)

The Quick Opinion: The husband of Deal or No Deal's Case #26 struggled mightily in April and May of 2012 before putting up a 3.45 ERA over the last four months. His swinging strike rate trended up in the latter half of the year, and his overall numbers (4.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) should keep his average draft position suppressed enough that he can be a nice find for the back of a fantasy rotation.

Profile: Stop me if you've heard this one. Clay Buchholz threatened to break out last year, but was foiled by a mysterious injury that forced an absence significantly longer than initially projected. Few could disagree that Boston's righty was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first few months. Even though his 1.74 ERA was unsustainable, his 3.41 xFIP was the best mark of his career. For the third year in a row he kept his walk rate below nine percent. Most importantly, he saw his strikeout rate rocket back to levels that haven't been seen since his rookie year in 2007. While his swinging strike rate was up to its highest level in three years, almost all of Buchholz's gains in the strikeout department came as a result of looking strikeouts. Called punchouts have less year-to-year correlation when compared with swinging strikeouts, but not by a great margin. The safe bet in fantasy leagues is to draft Buchholz as more of a second or third starter and hope A) he has developed a new mastery of the edge of the strike zone and B) he can finally shake the myriad of injuries he's dealt with over the last few years. (Colin Zarzycki)

The Quick Opinion: Even though he missed half the season, Clay Buchholz still finished among top-20 mixed league starters. With most of his gains coming as a result of a boost in called strikeouts and the fact that he has only topped 170 innings in three of his eight pro seasons, the safe play would be to draft Buchholz in the middle rounds after you've picked up a couple starters.

Profile: 2014 may go down as the year fantasy owners finally threw in the towel on Clay Buchholz. Many bought in on his vastly improved (if injury-shortened) 2013, hoping he could be a nice upside pick as a third starter in most standard leagues. Buchholz came out of the gate awful, however, posting a 5.42 ERA over the first half of the season. The peripherals weren't happy either, as the righty's pre-All-Star-break 4.59 FIP was buoyed by massive regression in the strikeout rate department, primarily due to his inability to replicate his top-tier called strikeout looking numbers from 2013. Buchholz did show some signs of the life in the second half, with an uptick in fastball velocity and some home run regression pushing his FIP down into the 3.50 area. Headed into the last year of his guaranteed deal (he has two options), he has plenty to prove, but projecting him for better than a 4.00 FIP or 180 innings seems to be asking for trouble. He certainly still has the upside to put him in the top 30 or so starting pitchers, but you have to bake the odds of him actually getting there into your pre-draft valuations. He safest left as an upside play in the later rounds. (Colin Zarzycki)

The Quick Opinion: Buchholz was unable to recreate his "looking strike" magic from 2013 and plummeted back to Earth. While his peripherals weren't quite as bad as the ERA would indicate, he performed no better than a mediocre fantasy starter and lost another 30-40 innings due to injury. At 30 and only one year removed from an elite season, there is a bit of upside left deep down, however, owners willing to gamble on that should only do so once more sure bets have come off the board.

Profile: Another year, more of the same from Clay Buchholz. For the third year out of the last five, the enigmatic Boston righty saw a solidly above-average season end at less than 120 innings pitched. After a bumpy April (where Buchholz suffered from some unfortunate batted ball luck), he rapidly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, owning a 2.20 ERA between May 10th to July 10th. You could argue those are arbitrary endpoints, but in reality, July 10th ended up being Buchholz's final outing of the season thanks to an elbow strain. A particularly disappointing injury due to the fact that he was posting the best strikeout minus walk rate and SIERA of his career. Now "hidden" behind David Price, Buchholz has supposedly had a normal offseason and should be ready to rock in the spring. It's tantalizing to gamble on at least some of 2015's gains being sustainable, but you almost have to factor in at least 50 innings of replacement level value in your fantasy rotation slot while he's hurt. Draft accordingly. (Colin Zarzycki)

The Quick Opinion: Peripherally, Clay Buchholz had his best big league season in 2015. In typical Buchholz fashion, it only lasted about three months, however. Coming off yet another injury-shortened, but tantalizingly good season, Buchholz will either be undervalued by those who only look at aggregate stats or overvalued by the crowd which drafts on a per 200 inning basis.

Profile: If you didn't know anything about Clay Buchholz beyond his 2016 stat line, you probably wouldn't think anything of him. Sure, his ERA and FIP were bad, but they weren't retching-bile-in-the-toilet-after-you've-already-thrown-up-your-dinner-and-that-12-pack-of-Natty Ice-into-the-toilet bad. But if you knew a little more about him, you'd have to be disappointed. Heading into 2016, Buchholz was coming off the best season of his career, at least according to WAR. He had only made 18 starts thanks to the injuries that always seem to find the frail right-hander, but when he pitched, he was excellent. Not so in 2016, and after allowing six runs in five innings to the Rockies on May 26th, he lost his permanent hold on a rotation spot. He would still make 11 more starts on the season, and would mostly pitch better in them, but after eight full major league seasons as a starter, there was a certain indignity about him having to make 16 relief appearances. With that displeasure looming like a time bomb once the Red Sox acquired Chris Sale, Buchholz was dispatched to Philadelphia, where he should fit in the back of the rotation until Zach Eflin and Jake Thompson are ready for the big time, or until the Phillies trade him. Buchholz is in the last year of his contract, and if he can regain his form in the first half, he could become an attractive trade chip. But if you're a betting man, you wouldn't put much money on that particular bet. Buchholz is probably a stay-away in mixed leagues, though he could have value in NL-only leagues, as most all starters have some value in those formats.

The Quick Opinion: From starting the final game of Boston's 2016 run to the back-end of the rotation on a Phillies team, 2017 probably won't be as eventful for Clay Buchholz. NL-only players may find a use for him, but his value in mixed leagues will be diminished by the team change.

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