000
FXUS63 KMPX 302005
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH H850
TEMPS NORTHEAST (COOLER THAN) OF THE 14C ISOTHERM. HERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MIXED LAYER
CAPE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
CENTRAL MN. A FEW SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN WISCONSIN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SCARCE. LATER
THIS EVENING WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S...EXCEPT IN THE METRO WHERE TEMPS WILL
HANG ON INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER
DRY AND SUNNY DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY DURING THE LATTER HALF (TUESDAY-THURSDAY). TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS H850
TEMPERATURES OF 15-20 DEG C COVER THE FA FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST RESPECTIVELY. AS TIME PROGRESSES...THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 10-15 DEG C RANGE...WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST AND
PERHAPS STRONGEST (WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER) WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SURFACE WAVE WILL BE RIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY HEADING OUR WAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE
EVENING. FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN LATE ON SATURDAY. A CORE OF 50 KNOT 500MB
WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ARE AT AOA 40 KNOTS. THE SPC OUTLOOK OF MARGINAL
COVERS THE AREA WELL BUT PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT AS THIS IS A VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK
HEATING. FILTERED CWASP VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...A LITTLE FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH SOME SMALL POPS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-94. DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH
A COOLING TREND IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS
TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY. FINALLY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW
FAR EAST THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION REACHES. THE GFS IS MORE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
MN RIVER VALLEY. HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS COVER THE FA WITH THE
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...AND PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...AND PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JRB