Nuggets & NBA

Hochman: Nuggets need to hit the lottery or make big moves

Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) gets his jersey pulled by Golden State Warriors forward Marreese Speights (5) as he goes up for a shot during the first quarter April 16, 2014 at Pepsi Center. (John Leyba, The Denver Post)

On draft night a summer ago, the most telling moves the Nuggets made didn't actually lead to a move.

But on that night, general manager Tim Connelly — whose name wasn't even dry on his business cards — nearly pulled off a trade for a player picked in the top five. Alas, Denver wasn't able to make the deal, but it was clear back then the aggressiveness and the dice-rolling that Connelly and Co. are willing to show.

The guys in the front office, though, must pull the trigger on something, before the ownership does so on them — not that this would happen this summer, but arguably it could happen a year from now.

Let's face facts.

The Nuggets haven't been this far from relevance since, when, before the Allen Iverson trade? They're clearly the fourth of the four Denver "big four" pro sports teams. Most NBA teams that advance in the playoffs have at least two star players. The Nuggets have like 0.8 of one, Ty Lawson. This whole "try to be like the Pacers" thing that coach Brian Shaw brought from Indiana is adorable, but come on — the only starless teams to win big in the past decade were Chauncey's 2004 Detroit Pistons and the Indiana Pacers. The odds of pulling that off again are like the Nuggets' 5.4 percent odds of cracking the top three in Tuesday's draft lottery.

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Denver's front-office members, notably Connelly and Arturas Karnisovas, have respect in the NBA for their diligence and scouting acumen. Their legacy, how- ever, can't be "hurry up and wait."

The notion that a (finally) healthy Nuggets roster can compete in the West seems like a stretch. Which is better — a healthy current roster or the 2012-13 team, which was peachy in the regular season but lost in the first round of the playoffs? Shoot, probably the latter, and where did that get them? Listen, we can't say the words "JaVale McGee" without the word "develop," and we can't say "Danilo Gallinari" without talking about "ceiling." Really, the word that encompasses all of this is "if."

If JaVale develops ....

If Gallo reaches his ceiling ...

Ifs are flimsy.

The Nuggets' roster isn't better than that of the Thunder, Spurs, Clippers, Warriors or Blazers and probably the Rockets.

The Nuggets need to make a move. Can they move the 11th pick — assuming they don't pingpong into the top three of the draft lottery — along with a player for a higher draft pick? Or can they get the established veteran Shaw wants by trading their pick and a player for a better, veteran player?

Speaking of Shaw, is the only reason he's not going to the New York Knicks because the Nuggets already plundered the Knicks for their picks? Here's an explanation: ESPN continues to report that Knicks president Phil Jackson, Shaw's mentor, is interested in nabbing Shaw as his coach, but in compensation for a coach, a team can give up only drafts picks and/or cash. And the Nuggets already have the Knicks' enticing picks for the next couple of seasons, so that could be the deal breaker if things get that far.

Shaw said all of the right things to Denver Post beat writer Christopher Dempsey by saying he wants to stay in Denver. But Shaw would have to listen to Phil if only because he's Phil. It's hard to see this getting serious, though. Shaw is a man of integrity. And hiring Derek Fisher as coach makes sense. He played for Phil and fits the Jason Kidd-Mike Matheny-Walt Weiss mold of a younger, retired player — still relevant to current players — running a team without having any experience.

Meanwhile, fans have been tweeting and MySpacing about the Nuggets nabbing Kevin Love. There's a better chance they get Courtney Love. The Minnesota all-star wants to go to a contender, not to a team that missed the playoffs. He wants to be the missing piece to a title run, not the only piece a team has.

So how do the Nuggets get relevant? In the NBA, you either stink so bad (or get so lucky) that you crack the top five in a transformational draft — or you gamble and make moves. Say that Denver nabs an Andre Iguodala-type player who stays long term. Then maybe we'll be writing about the first round of the playoffs instead of the first round of the draft.

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