A lock hangs on the center gate between the turnstiles at the entrance to Disneyland in Anaheim, CA, on Monday, Mar 16, 2020. The entire Disneyland Resort is shutting down due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)

The closure of every Disney theme park around the world could cost the entertainment company more than $500 million in lost admission revenue as its global attendance takes a 11 million visitor hit due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Data analysis based on Disney’s 2018 annual report and 2018 attendance figures from Burbank-based Themed Entertainment Association offer a glimpse of the potential impact on attendance and admission revenue as the company’s theme parks in the U.S., France, Japan and China remain closed amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Anaheim, Disney’s two theme parks, three hotels and outdoor shopping mall remain closed through the end of March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The shuttering of the Anaheim parks was preceded by closures of Disney parks in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Japan and followed by closures of Disney resorts in Florida and France.

Disney had $7.2 billion in total admission revenue at its domestic and international theme parks in 2018, according to the company’s annual report. Disney’s 12 theme parks around the world drew a combined 157.3 million visitors in 2018, according to the Themed Entertainment Association annual report.

Dividing the $7.2 billion in total admission revenue by the 157.3 million worldwide attendance results in $45.66 per visitor.

That $45.66 admission rate may seem low for a Disney theme park ticket, but there are a couple factors to consider. Disney ticket prices vary widely around the world with some theme parks allowing access for as little as $40 and others charging more than $150 for a single day’s admission. In addition, the $7.2 billion theme park admission figure in Disney’s annual report includes front gate tickets as well as annual passes prorated over time. Both factors have the potential to drive down the average admission revenue per visitor.

If you’re doing the math at home, you’ll want to use $7.183 billion in total admission revenue and 157.311 million in worldwide attendance. The difference is a few cents per visitor. But as you’ll see, the numbers are about to get very big — and a few cents can quickly add up to millions of dollars.

The global pandemic is so massive in scale that it has Disney accountants rounding to the nearest million to calculate the economic cost of the catastrophe.

The top-line numbers are eye-popping. A loss of 11 million visitors worldwide would be equal to the annual attendance at Disney California Adventure. The $505 million lost in worldwide theme park revenue would pay for the 2017 addition of the Pandora — World of Avatar themed land at Disney’s Animal Kingdom in Florida.

Locally, Disneyland and Disney California Adventure could see an attendance drop of 1.4 million visitors and admission revenue losses of $64 million during the 18-day closure, based on data from the Disney and TEA annual reports.

In Florida, the impact on Disney’s four theme parks could be twice as painful with attendance declining 2.7 million visitors and admission revenue plummeting $124 million during the 17-day closure, according to data in the annual reports.

The biggest potential losses could come from Asia where Disney’s theme parks have already been closed for one to two months. As with everything else involving the coronavirus outbreak, Asia could be a harbinger of what’s to come for Disney’s theme parks in the U.S.

Disney has four theme parks in Asia — Shanghai Disneyland, Hong Kong Disneyland and two parks at the Tokyo Disney resort. Disney’s Asian resorts could see a decline of 6.2 million visitors and an estimated loss of $285 million in admission revenue during the respective closures of the four theme parks, according to the annual report data.

The Asian losses assume the theme parks at the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo resorts will remain closed through the end of March like the Disney parks in the U.S. and France. Disney’s Chinese theme parks have not announced reopening dates yet. The theme parks at the Tokyo Disney resort remain closed until early April.

Parts of Disney’s Shanghai resort have begun reopening, but the theme park remains shuttered. Disney hotels at the Tokyo and Hong Kong resorts have stayed open during the COVID-19 pandemic while the respective theme parks remain closed.

The Disneyland Paris resort closed around the same time as Disney’s U.S. parks. The two Disney parks in France could see a 700,000 visitor drop in attendance and $32 million loss in admission revenue during the 17-day closure, based on data from the Disney and TEA annual reports.

Disney officials, who never discuss theme park revenues or attendance, declined to comment.

The annual report from the international non-profit Themed Entertainment Association always trails a year behind in attendance figures, with the 2019 report providing 2018 annual visitor estimates for theme parks around the globe. The 2020 TEA report is expected in May, barring delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Brady MacDonald is a theme park reporter for the Orange County Register and the Southern California News Group. He’s covered the theme park industry for more than 25 years. He writes about Disney, Universal, Six Flags, SeaWorld, Cedar Fair and Legoland parks in Southern California, across the United States and around the world. As a member of the SCNG Features team, he also writes about entertainment, travel, pop culture, music, restaurants and craft beer.

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