Monday, March 28, 2016

Meanwhile, back on the hustings

You may not have noticed, but this feature was a campaign-free zone for the past week. It got interesting again over the weekend, though:

Bernie Sanders did not just win all three states that voted this weekend -- Washington, Alaska and Hawaii -- he won them by overwhelming, impressive margins. The presidential hopeful won every county in Washington, and some of his biggest victory margins came from the state's most rural and traditionally conservative areas.

The win will likely mean a fundraising boost for the small-donor driven campaign. Sanders does not have a super PAC and instead has enjoyed injections of cash from his fans after big wins or important nights in the election calendar. According to the campaign, supporters from Washington State already give to his cause at disproportionately high rates, so these wins will likely produce another windfall.

These were routs -- Hillary Clinton got crushed in all three states. And that's a problem for her. It won't do to pretend that no one supports her candidacy, but if she were a more popular candidate, she wouldn't get crushed. The prevailing wisdom is that Clinton is going to be the next president, but we thought that eight years ago as well. She should have flicked a septuagenarian socialist away long ago, but here we are.

I can't speak to AK and HI, but the caucus system in WA (which both parties used up until this year, now only the Dems do) makes it really, really inconvenient to cross over. Not impossible, but really not worth it for all but the most determined strategic voter.

(I'm also unconvinced that strategic voting exists to a statistically significant degree anywhere; everyone who talks about it are political nerds, who by definition, are WAAAAY more interested in this stuff than the vast majority of the general population.)

What also makes the Dem caucus results in WA interesting is that now there is a lot of pressure for WA superdelegates pledged for Clinton to change their votes in light of the landslide in the caucus. Most of those superdelegates are themselves up for election this year, AND...the downballot primaries don't happen until August (i.e., after the convention.) And since WA has a top-two nonpartisan primary, it is entirely possible that those Dem incumbents could face a GENERAL election challenge from another Dem (or in the case of Seattle, a Green or Socialist).

I'm betting Jim McDermott is really glad he's retiring this year.

I don't think any of this is enough to keep Hillary from the nomination, but it is certainly enough to keep it interesting.

The dynamic I had heard earlier was that Hilary was winning big with blacks. I may be mistaken, but there aren't a whole lot of blacks in Hawaii or Alaska. My impression is that there aren't tons in Washington either, at least compared to other states, is that right Brian?

I don't think this would explain the extent of the defeat, but it might be part of it.

(I'm also unconvinced that strategic voting exists to a statistically significant degree anywhere; everyone who talks about it are political nerds, who by definition, are WAAAAY more interested in this stuff than the vast majority of the general population.)

Well, yes, a 68 year old lying, criminal socialist is going to have trouble swatting aside a septuagenarian socialist for obvious reasons. Duh.

It strikes me as well that Alaska and Hawaii have significant minority populations, so at least among those of Asian, native American, and pacific islander descent, Sanders is not just limited to caucasians. Bad news is coming for Hilliary when Hispanics and blacks figure out she's a crook.

We met our friends from WA for Easter and they stated since WA is a caucus state which makes it easier for Bernie to win. Unfortunately for him he is almost out of caucus states as there are only 2 left - Wyoming and North Dakota. Also, all the caucus states Bernie has won have had a minority population of 10% or below which gives him an advantage with more whites. Clinton is still the odds on favorite. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/

On another delegate note, I found this article interesting as it looks like Cruz is using the advantages of the Republican delegate process to his advantage in South Carolina and Colorado as well as other states. If Trump does not win the nomination outright or on the 1st ballot at the RNC Convention, I think he loses the nomination. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/colorado-delegates-trump-ted-cruz-221294

And this was a good analysis of taking the results of Trump's primary wins as a predictor of how people will vote in the states. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/