Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

523
FXUS64 KFWD 150739 CCA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019
.SHORT TERM...
/The Remainder Of The Weekend/
The main theme today will be the heat with high temperatures
expected to be a good 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will
be threatening record values for September 15th at both Waco(100F
in 1911) and DFW International Airport(100F in 1965 and the
infamously hot late Summer of 1980).
A strong 592 decameter upper ridge will continue its hold across
North and Central Texas similar to Saturday, where many sites
across East TX and eastern Central TX surged near the century mark
for their afternoon high temperatures. I see little change today
as we remain sandwiched between persistent and slow-moving mid
level disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico and a broad longwave
upper trough over the Western CONUS. I have leaned toward warmer
guidance numbers today with highs near the century mark for areas
generally along/east of the I-35 corridor -- where the slightly
higher mid level heights and stronger subsidence are anticipated.
I would not be surprised to see one or both of Waco and DFW at
least tie these old record high temperatures this afternoon. If
there was to be one saving grace...it would be the deep mixing
through 800-850mb that will get surface dew point temperatures
into the upper 50s and lower 60s many areas. This will keep heat
index values at or even slightly below the actual ambient high
temperatures. The light east winds 10 mph or less will provide
little relief from the heat, so today might not be a bad day to
remain indoors to watch a movie or one`s favorite pro football
team during peak heating hours this afternoon.
Thanks to the hot afternoon conditions, tonight will be a little
warmer and a little on the humid side, despite mostly clear skies
overhead. Lows 70-75 will be common across rural areas, while
urban heat island areas will likely be in the 77 to 80 degree
category with light east-southeast winds around 5 mph.
05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
/Monday onward/
Above normal temperatures look to continue for the foreseeable
future as upper-level ridging persists. The one piece of good news
is that it does look like rain chances should increase a bit this
week. Still, these rains will not be heavy nor widespread enough
to put a meaningful dent in drought conditions.
The week will start out with upper-level ridging. A trough will
dig into the West Coast early in the week, but this longwave
trough will pass well north of our region, keeping any cooler air
and synoptic-scale ascent in the Northern and Central Great
Plains. As this trough moves through the Rockies and into the
Great Plains, lee cyclogenesis should result in enhanced southerly
flow across our region. The resultant surge in Gulf moisture,
along with the ridge relaxing ever so slightly, will bring
increased rain chances, especially across Central Texas. Weak wind
shear and the lack of any significant surface boundaries will
keep the severe weather potential at a minimum, but some of the
stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds in excess of 40
mph, occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and brief heavy
downpours. Thunderstorm activity will be diurnally-driven,
meaning the chances will peak during the late afternoon and early
evening hours, and rapidly diminish after sunset.
The highest rain chances will come on Wednesday. Models have been
targeting Wednesday for the past several runs, and confidence is
probably high enough at this point to include some Likely PoPs
(60%) in our far southern counties, with chance PoPs (30%-50%) all
the way up to Interstate 20. Even on this day however, not
everyone will see rain.
Slight chance to chance PoPs will continue through the end of the
forecast period as the weather pattern for our region remains
largely unchanged through next weekend. Despite the Fall Equinox
being in just over a week, it will continue to feel more like late
summer for the foreseeable future.
37
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019/
/6Z TAFS/
No significant aviation concerns are expected through the period
with light easterly winds continuing. Any afternoon scattered
showers or storms should be well to the south of the major
airports. VFR should prevail through the period.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 77 96 76 94 / 0 5 0 0 10
Waco 99 75 97 74 94 / 0 0 5 5 20
Paris 95 73 94 73 93 / 5 0 0 0 5
Denton 98 74 95 74 94 / 0 0 5 0 5
McKinney 97 75 95 74 94 / 5 0 0 0 5
Dallas 99 78 97 77 95 / 5 0 0 0 10
Terrell 98 75 97 74 95 / 10 5 0 0 10
Corsicana 98 73 95 73 92 / 10 5 5 5 10
Temple 98 74 95 73 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
Mineral Wells 97 71 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
37/05