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Friday, January 2, 2015

Pat Buchanan: Is War in the Cards for 2015?

By Patrick J. Buchanan

“If you see 10 troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that
nine will run into the ditch before they reach you,” said Calvin
Coolidge, whose portrait hung in the Cabinet Room of the Reagan White
House.

Among the dispositions shared by the two conservatives was a determination to stay out of other people’s wars.

Peering into 2015, there are wars into which our interventionists are
eager to plunge that represent no immediate or grave threat to us.

One is the war the Islamic State group is waging in Syria and Iraq, a
menace so great, we are told, it may require U.S. ground troops.

But why? Syria and Iraq are 5,000 miles away. And because of its
barbarism and incompetence, the Islamic State is losing support in the
Sunni lands it now occupies.

The Kurds have halted the group’s advance toward Irbil, Iraq. Shiite
militias, no friends of ours, have halted its advance toward Baghdad.
The Islamic State is under steady drone and air attack by the U.S. and
Arab allies. Iran is providing men and materiel to Damascus and Baghdad
in their battle against the group.

Now the Turks and Gulf Arabs, including the Saudis, appear to have
awakened to the threat and are weighing in against the Islamic State.

Why not let them do the fighting?

By staying out of the two world wars of the 20th century until the
other great powers were fully engaged and horribly bled, America emerged
triumphant with the fewest casualties and least damage.

That used to be called statesmanship.

Moreover, compared with Nazi Germany, imperial Japan, Stalin’s USSR
and Mao’s China, the Islamic State doesn’t even make the “JV,” to use
Barack Obama’s term.

Last month, the drums were beating for an attack on North Korea for
what Sen. John McCain called a “new form of warfare” and what Sen.
Lindsey Graham called “cyberterrorism” aided by China.

In “A Reply to Kim’s Cyberterrorism,” The Wall Street Journal urged a
“forceful response” to deter “future attacks.” Swiftly, there followed
the crashing of North Korea’s Internet system.

Query: If reports are true that Sony Pictures was hacked by
ticked-off ex-employees yet North Korea’s Internet was brought down by a
U.S. cyberattack, who is the cyberterrorist now?

Perhaps some of those Iranian technicians in Natanz who watched their
centrifuges breaking down and blowing up from the Stuxnet virus have
some thoughts on this.

But the most determined push for war in 2015 will come from neocons
and interventionists who want a

U.S.-Putin confrontation and regime
change in Russia.

And as Russia has a nuclear arsenal to match our own, this is a matter of real gravity.

Because of U.S.-EU sanctions on Russia for its role in Ukraine and
the collapse in the price of oil, Russia’s principal export, the ruble
has lost half its value, and the economy faces a contraction of 5
percent in 2015.

Real hardships lie ahead for the Russian people. But it seems they
are not blaming Vladimir Putin for their troubles. They are blaming us.

“According to the respected Moscow ‘Levada Center,’ which measures
political sentiment in Russian society,” the New York Observer reports,
“74 percent of Russians have negative feelings towards the USA. … In the
1990s, 80 percent had positive attitude toward America.

“Currently, 76 percent of Russians hate Obama personally and only a
meager 2 percent like him. … These are the maximum peaks of
anti-American feelings in Russia in years. … Just last week Visa and
MasterCard completely stopped their operations in Crimea, leaving more
than 2 million people there without access to their money.”

One Moscow supermarket is using American flags as doormats, and customers are wiping their feet on them.

Before going home, Congress voted to levy new sanctions on Russia and
authorized U.S. lethal weapons to be sent to Kiev to enable Ukraine to
retake Luhansk and Donetsk and perhaps Crimea.

Obama signed the bill.

With Republican hawks taking over all congressional committees
dealing with foreign and defense policy, peace and war, in the new year,
there will be a competitive clamor that Obama send the guns to Kiev.

And what happens then?

Will Putin abandon the rebels and face the rage of the Russian people
for backing down? Will Putin wait for the U.S. anti-tank weapons and
ammunition to arrive and be sent to eastern Ukraine?

Or will Putin, a decisive sort, send in the Russian army before the
U.S. weapons arrive, hive off a land bridge to Crimea — and maybe more
for bartering purposes — and call Obama’s bluff?

In his New Year’s message to the Russian people, Putin hailed the
annexation of Crimea as an achievement that will “forever remain a
landmark in the national history.”

Doesn’t sound as if he’ll be giving Crimea up any time soon.

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” said the wise Yogi Berra. But one prediction seems not too risky.

Either Obama and Putin enter negotiations over Ukraine or the war in
Ukraine, with 4,700 dead since April, gets bigger and wider.

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