5 Year Betting Challenge: My plan to become a millionaire with sports investment

I am connected with sports investing since 1998, things changed dramatically since then and the market is bigger than ever. Odds providers are smarter, investors are smarter, the world is changing and we must improve all the time if we want to make something good happen in this speculative business…

Bookmakers made a lot of mistakes in the past and a lot of bettors beat them just because of that. They don’t make huge mistakes anymore and with the internet, easy to find information and sharp odds, it looks like it is harder and harder to beat them.

But despite all those things, I think that right now is the best time to become a millionaire.

I made a realistic plan and with little bit luck and a lot of work, discipline and patience, I believe I can become a millionaire in 5 years.

Last couple of months, I was thinking about moving ALL my money to bitcoin bookmakers. I knew, that one day this will happen and we always must adopt to new situations. This is the only way to succeed in this dynamic world, where everything has exponential growth. If you sleep for a moment, you are out.

But still, I didn’t want to completely go away from Pinnacle, 5Dimes and Matchbook, my favourite fiat bookmakers, that still have the best odds.

But then again, if we take into account the general problems with all kind of fiat bookmakers (country restrictions, identity verifications, limiting players,…) I think it was only a matter of time, when I will move all or at least part of my money to bitcoin bookmakers (see the list). I will still bet with the best fiat bookmakers, like Pinnacle, which is the best bookmaker in the world and I can still bet there, but if you can not bet at Pinnacle or any other low juice bookmaker, then I think right now is the time to move and make a step forward.

The idea…

Bitcoin is on the raise and I simply can not miss this huge opportunity. I believe, that if I will bet with bitcoins, I will make money with my betting on sports and also because of bitcoin raise. This will make me a millionaire.

Maybe I succeed, maybe not, but I think I should do it.

The idea and the goal is very simple: to make $1 million in next 5 years with starting bankroll of $4,400, which is today exactly 1 BTC (6/10/2017).

I optimistically expect, that 1 bitcoin will be worth $100,000 in next five years. Bitcoin is the future currency for all of us and it has been very successful story so far. And I think that this is just a beginning. There are couple of predictions, that bitcoin will raise up to $100,000 in next few years (Article 1, Article 2, Article 3…).

So, what I need is to start with 1 bitcoin in 2017 and then make a profit of 9 bitcoins in next 5 years. With little bit help of crypto market, I will be a millionaire.

The goal is to generate yield of around 3.9% and make around 1000 picks per year.

Is it possible?

First of all, I don’t have any influence on bitcoin raise. I believe in the future of bitcoin and that’s all I can say. I am also very optimistic person.

So, I will focus on my betting skills. That’s all I can do.

I use predictive models for my sports betting, I don’t guess games (at least most of the times) and based on my past performance, it is possible that I reach this goal.

Since February 4th 2017 to October 5th 2017 I made 1067 picks on baseball and basketball, that were based on my math model (math model is something I will focus on in the future, limiting any gut/intuition/info-based bets):

MLB BETTING MODEL BETS (673 picks):

Period: April — September 2017

Profit: +4,109

YTD: 338–316–19

AVG ODDS: 2.04

Yield: +3.17%

BASKETBALL BETTING MODEL BETS (394 picks):

Period: February — May 2017

Profit: +3,264

YTD: 237–150–7

AVG ODDS: 1.91

Yield: +14.14%

The yield is way bigger than 3.9% and this is based on more than 1000 picks. So, YES I believe — it is possible and I will do my best. I don’t set unrealistic goal of 15% yield or +100% every year, but some realistic small growth.

Strategy?

Strategy and patience in sports betting is more important than most people think. When you have the goal and strategy, you don’t care about daily losses, even monthly losses. You can simply focus on your analysis and the results will come.

There is no such thing as overnight success or easy money. And becoming a millionaire will not be an easy task, I hope we all agree with it. But I can also promise myself, that I will do my best and hopefully, reach this goal.

The strategy question for me was: Flat or Progressive (proportional)?

The idea of FLAT strategy is: Start with 1 BTC and use 1% (0.01 BTC) as one unit whole year, no matter if your bankroll raise or goes down. After one year, reorganise bankroll and recalculate 1% again.

The idea of PROPORTIONAL strategy is: Start with 1 BTC and recalculate 1% of current bankroll every day. If bankroll goes up, the bets are bigger ad vice versa.

In 2017 on my MLB bets, flat was better option, but the number of picks was also smaller. On the long run, progressive (proportional) will outperform flat, but it is is also a strategy with bigger ups and downs.

I think both strategies are good and I think I could succeed with both strategies. My calculations are made by flat, which has little bit lower results on the long run.

What Sports will I bet?

Most of my bets will be from MLB baseball, NHL ice hockey and basketball. I will use predictive models and daily analysis for all my bets.

I have the most experience with MLB. Basketball has the best results in 2017 and NHL is a sport, where I can make a lot of profit, but I also struggle last two seasons. But I believe that with combination of all three I can reach the goal.

NITROGENSPORTS – this is my first choice for MLB and NHL bets. Around 40% of all my money will be on this bookmaker. Safe, reliable, very good limits and very good odds compared to Pinnacle or 5Dimes and if you want to bet with me.

CLOUDBET – Best for my basketball bets, because they have the lowest basketball margins. Around 30% of all my money will be on this bookmaker. Cloudbet also has the best Welcome bonus (up to 5 BTC, cca $21,000).

SPORTSBET.IO – this is the bookmaker with the best promotions every week. If you want to combine bets with other sports, like soccer/football, than this is a very good option. I will have around 10% of my bankroll and will try to get the best odds.

BITCOINRUSH – The best bitcoin bookmaker for NHL and MLB and all other US sports. They have Pinnacle odds and this is a must have bookmaker. They accept all players, including those from USA.

Will I succeed?

I don’t know. Our whole life is a game of risks and returns. Invest in your education and maybe you fail. Invest time and money to open a restaurant and maybe you fail. Go to the street and maybe you will be hit by a car. Our whole life is a combination of probabilities and risks. We don’t have influence on every thing.

Because of that, we must focus on things, that we can control.

If you have a goal, if you have a plan, if you commit, that you will work hard, if you are patient and if you have some skill, the luck usually also comes. Luck always favours the brave. And you must remember that brave are the people who take chances in life. This is how successful stories are made.

I have a goal, I have a plan and I work hard. I have some betting skills too and I have my betting models. Luck is not a factor on the long run, but I will believe in small luck with crypto market, where I don’t have any influence. Let’s see if I can become a millionaire.