Thursday, May 26, 2016

More data

Those Democrats who still live in the fact-based world -- i.e., not Berners -- have the benefit of understanding what is actually happening, as opposed to what they want to happen. Nate Silver & co. are among those reality types -- with the latest being this useful analysis.

The money line: “If all states held primaries open to independents — instead
of closed primaries, or caucuses of any kind — Clinton might have a larger lead
in elected delegates than she does now. The model indicates that Clinton would
have a lead of 294 elected delegates, compared with the 272 she holds now.
That’s not a huge difference, but it means that Clinton has been hurt at least
as much by caucuses as Sanders has been hurt by closed primaries.”