Not just a 'north Indian', 'bania-traders' party: Karnataka verdict has given BJP an image makeover

BJP is no longer just a ‘north Indian’, ‘bania-traders’ party, but is drawing increasing support from SC/STs, OBCs and women voters.

A joke doing the rounds on social media since Tuesday’s Karnataka’s election result goes something like this: in Gujarat last year, Congress supporters celebrated ‘moral victory’ when BJP couldn’t cross 100 seats despite the latter’s vote share being 8% higher than Congress’.

In Karnataka, Congress supporters are also celebrating ‘moral victory’ after losing a third of their seats and control of the assembly. Why? Because their vote share was just a little higher than that of BJP. The Congress simply is incapable of losing.

All parties try and project confidence and victory all the time, regardless of what they perceive the ground situationto be, and Congress can’t be expected to be different. To be fair to the Grand Old Party, some of its state leaders did express disappointment on Tuesday morning when the results started coming out — though that didn’t last the day, especially after it became clear that BJP was not going to get a majority on its own.

But Karnataka’s elections are not about claims and counterclaims. Rather, if nothing else, it has discredited a narrative from a particular section of the media and intellectual space that believed that the whole country was rising up against BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and that he and BJP would find it difficult to win elections because of eroding support.

This view was not prevalent in the early part of last year, but started gaining ground after the goods and services tax (GST) was rolled out and the Gujarat elections results. By the time of BJP’s bypoll losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, this narrative became firmly set in a section of the intelligentsia and media.

There were two reasons why this narrative started to develop. First, the anger of traders after the GST rollout, presented largely through anecdotes in various sections of the media, triggereda belief that BJP was losing support of the urban trader and middle class. Then, there were the dalit and farmer protests.

Big rallies were organised in Mumbai, crops were burned in Mandsaur, Madhya Pradesh, and photos and videos of desperate farmers burning their produce created another major impression about rural anger against BJP. The Gujarat elections, where BJP ceded ruralareas to Congress, added to this view.

Now, a lot of the anger and protests were real, and probably justified to some extent. But how was all this going to change voting intentions? If I am a farmer or a dalit angry because of poor prices and injustice, is my anger automatically going to make me vote against the party in power?

This is important, because BJP, like Congress in the past, employs a multilayered approach to woo voters and keep them by its side. There is Hindutva and the caste factor; the developmentand welfare schemes factor (for would-be voters who have benefited); Modi’s own personal appeal and charisma; and the ground operation, carpet-bombing and micromanagement done in the run-up to the elections.

Also, a voter’s choice depends on a lot of factors. While he may find one issue aproblem (say, GST rollout), there may be other factors to make him continue voting for a party (say, Hindutva). In Gujarat, BJP may have swept the urban centres, despite the ‘angry trader’. Now, take Karnataka. Here, the party enjoyed a surge in rural voting. It lost some close seats in Bengaluru, but won more rural seats than Congress.

Rural India also comprises traders, shopkeepers, artisans and construction workers. These people may not always be affected by farming emergencies like fall in crop prices. If you look at the roads and houses that have been built across villages, it is not surprising to believe that there could be a surge in living standards among large sections of rural Indians.

So, BJP not only won lingayat, upper caste and other backward classes (OBC) votes, but also scheduled castes (SC)/scheduled tribes (ST) ones. Which suggests that BJP is changing its character. It is no longer just a ‘north Indian’, ‘bania-traders’ party, but is drawing increasing support from SC/STs, OBCs and women voters. This new reality requires a different perspective to analyse BJP’s electoral prospects.