06 January 2009

Study Finds Exit Polls Exaggerated Black Support for Prop 8

Surprise, surprise. A comprehensive new study that includes precinct-by-precinct voter analysis in California debunks the myth that black voters overwhelmingly supported Proposition 8, which rescinded marriage equality and banned gay marriage. The new study finds support for Proposition 8 among black and Latino voters "was not significantly different than other groups" and concludes black support was "no more than 59 percent, nowhere close to the 70 percent reported the night of the election."

The report was conducted by political scientists Ken Sherrill of CUNY-Hunter College and Patrick Egan of New York University. The study was commissioned by the Evelyn & Walter Haas, Jr. Fund in San Francisco and released by the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Policy Institute. The results were explained this afternoon in a conference call conducted by The Task Force and Freedom to Marry. Full report in PDF.

The study found four factors—party identification, ideology, frequency of religious service attendance and age—drove the "yes" vote for Proposition 8. For example, "more than 70 percent of voters who were Republican, identified themselves as conservative, or who attended religious services at least weekly supported Proposition 8." On the other hand, "70 percent or more of voters who were Democrat, identified themselves as liberal, or who rarely attended religious services opposed the measure."

The level of support for Proposition 8 among African Americans was nowhere close to the NEP exit poll 70 percent figure. The study looked at pre- and post-election polls and conducted a sophisticated analysis of precinct-level voting data from five California counties with the highest African-American populations (Alameda (Oakland), Los Angeles, Sacramento, San Diego and San Francisco) Based on this, it concludes that the level of African-American support for Proposition 8 was in the range of 57-59 percent. Its precinct-level analysis also found that many precincts with few black voters supported Proposition 8 at levels just as high or higher than those with many black voters.

If more than half of black voters supported the marriage ban, that's still too much, but, the new figures are comparable to other demographics and nowhere near as large as purported. There is still much work to be done on all sides, especially in our own community. But the demographics of California are crystal clear: If you want to blame somebody for Proposition 8, go to overwhelming white Orange County or the San Fernando Valley and blame them.

Comments

The Exit Poll for the black subsample had a huge MOE. Or, at least that's what I was told in the discussion post- election. Some stats person I knew placed the MOE at +/-10 or 11. So, 59 percent is within that MOE. If that MOE is right, what this continues to show is that the general public, the press and many gays see what they want to see with numbers and are perhaps just ignorant about their meaning.

I never doubted the fact that African American support for Prop 8 was not nearly as large as claimed.
That was pushed why Andrew Sullivan, Andrew Savage and the big white gay blogs. It's easier to blame blacks than their relatives in San Diego and Mission Viejo. Those precincts went overwhelmingly for Prop 8, but its still easier to blame "African American voters".

Bottom line is religion and age were more important, less so than race. Unless some people want to argue with a complete thorough analysis of millions of voters and support that exit poll bs. I think some will try.

this makes me furious. once again white gays needed some group to blame for their poor planning and lack of out reach to minority groups. once again the majority resorted to what i like to call, "blame blackie" if all else fails blame the blacks. it's worked for centuries now and shows no signs of letting up.

just watch what happens to obama if he fails to produce some of the unrealistic results that he's expected to produce. the majority will forget all about retarded bush and blame obama for everything.

Although I do have some problems with the study on a methodological basis, the study carefully shows what I have been saying since election night (and for which posters, some now banned, said I was wrong to say). If more people knew their basic statistics they would know that the original poll had problems, was inconsistent with the pre-election polls, and had such a small sample that it wasbound to produce an estimate that had a high variance. This is known by anyone with training in statistics. One thing I did note was that the study was done by two white academics. Hopefully the day is coming soon when black academics can do these studies.

But this all brings me back to the point that I made back in November: people belived that 70% number not because it was right, not because there was a wealth of evidence supporting that number, and not because it was expected. People believed that number because it conformed to what they believed about black people (and I include many black people in this). We have spent weeks and weeks talking about this issue, and about "black homophobia" in particular, only because this (wrong) 70% number can be used by those who believe that blacks are the enemies of gays. What I was most shocked about was the number of (white-identified) black gay men who used this 70% number to demonize their own community (and you know who you are). They should be ashamed of themselves.

If there was one thing we got out of this, it is that it showed people's true colors.

Well the point of the MOE is to point out that people should not have been confident in the exit poll numbers. But you have an entire industry of stats people, who need to justify their predictive powers. So they gloss over numbers.

I hope nobody in their right mind still believes that 70% crap. I man it's been debunked a while ago before this study.

Hell, even if it were true, it wouldn't mean a damn thing since blackfolk make up less than 7% (I believe) of the population of California. So, yeah.... anyone who can do a little make can tell you that 70 % of 7 % wouldn't have passed Prop. 8. and like tons of other things, it's not a 'black' issue as it is one based on religion, age, and class.

White gay bloggers showing their ass is no surprise.... I still like my Savage Love though but it just feels 'tainted' though hearing peoples problems now.

I'm not sure I understand the triumphalism I'm seeing here. 57-59% is still significantly higher than other *Democratic* subgroups. Why on earth would you compare Republicans with black Democrats? You would not expect them to have the same values or to vote the same way.

White gay racism exists and that's definitely played a part in the overreaction to African Americans' (still!) overwhelming support of Prop 8.

But if your issue seeing these numbers is a big boo-ya to white gay people, then you are most definitely missing the point.

Compare the level of support for Prop 8 among African-Americans (overwhelmingly Democratic voters) with every other *Democratic* ethnic group: not only whites, but Latinos and Asians. The differences are striking.

To point out that the highly religious and conservatives voted for Prop 8 even more than *Democratic* African-Americans....DUH?! OF COURSE we expected those groups too - we already knew they were on the "other side."

"Triumphalism"? You're exaggerating and obviously looking for fault. I said even at 59% the numbers "are still too high." Or perhaps you missed the earlier piece on the anti-gay black ministers in Cleveland? But a nice try and improvement over your pro-Mormon and anti-black rants after Prop 8 passed. RM

RM: You must have me confused with another JM. Since you can see my email address and (presumably) IP address, you can easily verify that I haven't posted any anti-black or pro-Mormon rants here or *anywhere*.

The triumphalism I saw was among the comments (please see those above).

And why was my second comment deleted?

I think you buried the lede when you didn't mention that AA & Latino support was the same *when religious service attendance was factored out*. This is an essential part of the message that should put the focus on religiosity (as it should be) when we're talking about *Democratic* support for Prop 8, not race.

No confusion. Your comments after Prop 8 were signed JASON with the same IP address and email address. Your comment pattern then was obsessed with black religioisity and/or trying to correct this blog around Prop 8.

I'm not going to discuss your walkback on "triumphalism." Clearly you do not read this blog fully and are not aware of my background and how much has been posted here on anti-gay black churches and violence. Leave no more comments in this thread. RM

JM....If you are so concerned about black churches and gays, we talk about it every darn week here. WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN? Why are you not in the discussion? We discussed it YESTERDAY about black ministers in Cleveland. Where were you yesterday? Or even today? Skipped that one.

Sorry, you read like another white gay men on here to criticize around Prop 8 cause that is only what you seem concerned about. Blacks and Prop 8.

If you want to read something very funny, go over to Advocate.com. They cover this story and you should read the comments-- the posters don't believe the results of the study, misrepresent it, atempt to discredit the authors, and continue to blame black people for the passage of Proposition 8. I can't say I was shocked by it, but it was a little scary that this new study, by a leading gay organization, was so quickly dismissed by these folks.

Part of the problem is that when it comes to race peo confuse correlation with causation. People didn't vote on Prop 8 based on race. They voted based on religion. That was the cause. The fact that there was overlap was just correlation. Or an overlap that did not determine thought process of the voter.