Even Labor voters think it’s all over for Rudd

There are forces within the ALP still shirty at Bill Shorten for abandoning Julia Gillard for Kevin Rudd and they are vowing to stop him becoming leader.
Photo: Joe Armao

by
Phillip Coorey

A standout statistic in The Australian Financial Review/Nielsen poll published on Saturday was the overwhelming majority of voters now tipping a Coalition victory on September 7.

While Labor lagged the Coalition by 47 per cent to 53 per cent in the two-party-preferred vote, a rather large 71 per cent, regardless of how they will vote, believed the Coalition would win and just 20 per cent, or one in five, tipped Labor.

Even Labor voters are losing hope. Among them, 52 per cent predicted a Coalition victory and 36 per cent a
Kevin Rudd
triumph.

When Nielsen asked all voters the same question just two weeks before, 57 per cent were backing a Coalition win and 31 per cent a Labor win. This sharp jump in sentiment towards an
Abbott
victory is being reflected generally, be it in the betting markets or anecdotally.

It will be exacerbated by Rudd’s decision to fulfil an obligation to fly to Brisbane on Saturday to film an ABC cooking show, despite having unofficially suspended his campaign to return to Canberra and deal with the Syrian situation.

Despite Labor’s legitimate protest that the quick sojourn in no way impeded the Prime Minister being briefed on Syria, the optics were awful.

It was reminiscent of his hospital visit to
Cate Blanchett
and her new baby while the rest of the Labor establishment was at
John Button
’s funeral, which Rudd was too busy to attend.

The 71 per cent tipping an Abbott victory is the most certain the electorate has been about the outcome of an election in the poll’s history, eclipsing the 64-20 result the same poll showed in October 2004 when sentiment shifted behind
John Howard
rolling
Mark Latham
.

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The danger for Labor is these numbers suggest a lot of people will stop listening, right when the campaign enters its final critical phase.

Inspiration from Keating’s comeback

The optimists, Rudd included, do not believe it is over and have, in recent days, drawn inspiration from
Paul Keating
’s miracle comeback against
John Hewson
in 1993.

But, as one Liberal frontbencher pointed out over the weekend, Rudd isn’t Keating, Abbott isn’t Hewson and there is no GST for Labor to work with. (Labor is doing its level best with Abbott’s near-universally hated paid parental leave scheme.)

Consequently, discussion in both parties is turning towards the election aftermath and in Labor, it’s how to get back into government quickly.

If Labor loses, it is inconceivable that Rudd will stay as leader but the new leadership rules he had the caucus adopt add a new layer of complication to the post-election scenario.

The smart money in Labor is a post-Rudd leadership will be duked out between
Chris Bowen
and
Bill Shorten
, and possibly
Tony Burke
.

Under the new rules, the leadership will be automatically thrown open after a loss, meaning Rudd – if he keeps his seat – would struggle to hold on even if he wanted to. The candidates must be nominated by caucus and the rank-and-file and the caucus have a 50 per cent vote each in picking the winner.

More importantly, that leader can’t be removed without 60 per cent of the caucus signing a petition. (The figure is 75 per cent for a prime minister.)

Not since before the war has the person who became opposition leader in the wake of an election loss gone on to become prime minister.

But the 60 per cent rule means the age-old theory of installing some hapless dunderplunken post-election with a view to rolling them before the next election needs to be rethought.

If, for argument’s sake, both Bowen and Shorten vie for the leadership on the basis they believe they can do over Abbott in one term, then they will need to woo the rank-and-file as much as the caucus.

Bowen and Shorten face challenges

Both are future leadership material but both also have immediate problems. There are forces within the ALP still shirty at Shorten for abandoning
Julia Gillard
for Rudd and they are vowing to stop him becoming leader. Bowen will be hamstrung by an awkward policy record. He has had a miserable run as a minister, inheriting such dogs as fuel watch and then the entire immigration portfolio.

His recent decision as Treasurer, to clamp down on fringe benefits tax exemptions for salary-sacrificed cars to help fund a softening of the carbon tax, did more than anything to kill Rudd’s comeback momentum.

There is a growing mood in the ALP that whoever leads in the event of an election loss should do to an Abbott government what he did to Labor.

Strangle its ability to govern by blocking everything, giving nothing and forcing it to deal with a recalcitrant Senate, likely to be run by the Greens and/or an eclectic rump of independents.

Abbott, if elected, will have plenty of problems with an ailing economy and a restive National party.

He has been talking a big game over the past three years on boats, the cost of living, and debt and deficit and he has promised another election if the Senate does not let him abolish the carbon tax. If the Greens win control of the Senate, the carbon tax becomes Labor’s call.

If Labor is serious about payback, it could force Abbott to make good on this double dissolution promise and we could all be back at the polls by the end of next year.

That might make it even more worthwhile for whoever sticks their hand up straight after this election.