Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the MidwestSevere thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this weekPowerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quietThe Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

I think my first guess on Beatriz will actually come true...Called for a peak around 85/90 mph. Doesn't appear it will become much more than that, and it may peak somewhere below that...always a possibility.

Quoting skycycle:with the warm water and possible quick round of intensification (especially if she brushes the coast before a landfall) Beatriz has a lot of (bad) potential if you ask me... looks like a significantly bigger wind field with this last update as well...

It sure does, but then again doesnt every storm have deadly potential?? I hope everyone down there has got a worse case senario plan casue even if its only cat 1 or cat 2 the flooding it causes could be catastrophic.

with the warm water and possible quick round of intensification (especially if she brushes the coast before a landfall) Beatriz has a lot of (bad) potential if you ask me... looks like a significantly bigger wind field with this last update as well...

NWS Jax has been optimistic about the pattern change starting Thursday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TOAPPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTUREACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM AND THURSDAY TRANSITIONS TO A WETTERPATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVINGTHURS MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY (60-70%) POPS IN THE AFTN ACRSTHE ENTIRE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHMOVE INTO THE AREA. BESIDES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO WIPE AWAY SOMEOF THE SMOKE...TEMPS WILL DROP A LITTLE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGHTHE BASE. A MOIST SWLY FLOW ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASERAIN CHANCES TO ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY AS SEABREEZES MOVE INLAND.TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2011 over Jharkhand and adjoining area of Chhattisgarh moved northwestwards and lays centered over southeast Uttar Pradesh & adjoining Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, about 100 km east-southeast of Sidhi (Madhya Pradesh) and 150 km south of Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh).

Quoting Jedkins01:LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST COMING UP AS COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTSCOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDY WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF RAINS.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THECENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EDGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THECOUNTRY ON THURSDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULFBECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEASTTOWARD FLORIDA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THISCOMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS ONTHE BACK SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BRING 2 INCH PRECIPITABLEWATERS TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH MAY LIFTOUT ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.

THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THAT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHERMAY BE APPROACHING...WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY NEAR OR EVEN ABOVENORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEPTEMPERATURES IN CHECK...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE MID AND UPPER90S OF LATE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST COMING UP AS COMPLEX SERIES OF EVENTSCOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDY WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF RAINS.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THECENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EDGING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THECOUNTRY ON THURSDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULFBECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST...AND THEN SOUTHEASTTOWARD FLORIDA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THISCOMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS ONTHE BACK SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BRING 2 INCH PRECIPITABLEWATERS TO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE TROUGH MAY LIFTOUT ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.

THE IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THAT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHERMAY BE APPROACHING...WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY NEAR OR EVEN ABOVENORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEPTEMPERATURES IN CHECK...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE MID AND UPPER90S OF LATE.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the storms so far today have been in the Slight risk area. Conditions are a lot more favorable for the development of tornadoes in the Moderate risk area. Indications are that storms should begin to fire in the MDT risk area within the next 1-3 hours, just in time for peak daytime heating.

Low pressure system supporting these thunderstorms is abnormally strong for this time of the year...992 mb.

Yeah, this system is just getting started... storms don't normally bother my dog, but he was a total stress case last night and demanded to sleep at the foot of the bed (he usually stays in the living room where he can guard the front door and stretch out...).