The Big 12 pursues expansion: A preview of the next big realignment wave?

I was surprised by the Big 12’s change of course on expansion until I started thinking about the conference … about its membership and its history and its fractured ethos.

Then the lurching all made sense.

When has the Big 12 moved in unified, inexorable fashion toward anything during its 20+ year existence?

Reaction from this corner of the college sports galaxy:

*** I’m betting heavily (and figuratively) on the conference growing to 14 members from the current 10.

If you’re going to invite two schools for no reason other than increasing bulk, why not add four?

If you want quantity, then add quantity.

It’s always better, and far easier — and less disruptive — to do it one swoop than in stages.

Brigham Young seems likely, at least on a football-only basis. (From an all-sports standpoint, the Cougars are extremely difficult to assimilate.)

Maybe the Big 12 adds two schools in all sports and two in a football-only capacity.

*** Unlike the sweeping realignment at the turn of the decade, this version will be contained to the Big 12, at least among the Power 5 conferences.

The ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are not in the expansion business right now, and nothing the Big 12 does in the next few months will change that.

*** My sense is that Big 12’s decision to pursue expansion is not all about the money.

It’s mostly about money, of course. The terms in the Fox and ESPN deals allow new members to receive the same media rights payouts as existing members. With four new schools at approximately $25 million per, that’s $100 million to the conference annually.

But it also feels like Big 12 leadership is simply spooked.

The other P5s have more schools and their own TV networks, and the Big 12 feels like it must do something. Because a TV network isn’t feasible, that something is to get bigger.

*** Bottom line: This could all be a preview of the massive Power 5 realignment wave looming in six or eight years, as the P5s position themselves for new Tier 1 deals.

Will we see a repeat of the frenzy that struck in 2010-11? It all depends on two words: market forces.

Back then, the small number of content distributors — ESPN and Fox as the leads, with a dash of Comcast and CBS — forced the conference to get bigger in order to maximize value. (Shrinking supply = increased demand.)

That could be the route to riches again, but there’s no guarantee — technology and consumer behavior may well alter the dynamic before the 2023-24 negotiating windows.

What impact will cord cutting have on the pool of cash ESPN and Fox have for rights fees?