QINGDAO, China - Not very long ago a
powerful blast near North Korea's northern border with
China shocked the whole world, even though North Korea
claimed that it was part of its hydroelectric program.
Whether North Korea's claim was reliable or not, the
cloud caused by the explosion will not disappear from
people's minds for quite some time. The blast prompted
people to believe that North Korea is very close to
possessing nuclear weapons, if it does not actually have
one in hand already. Yet the main player in dismantling
North Korea's nuclear project - the United States, which
for long has taken it as its priority policy in East
Asia to prevent North Korea from being nuclear-armed -
appears strangely calm. When US Secretary of State Colin
Powell was asked during a television interview for his
opinion about the blast, he said North Korea's neighbors
would be more concerned than the US.

If the
neighbors referred to by the US are South Korea and
Japan, there seems to be some credibility to Powell's
remarks. South Korea has the unification cause in mind.
A nuclear-armed North would be harder and more costly
for the South to unite with (although it may be more
attractive to South Korea as a nuclear-armed united
Korea would be more powerful in Asia and the world). It
is true that the North and South had a severe war with
each other in the middle of the last century, but it is
unlikely that North Korea would use nuclear weapons
against fellow Koreans in the South, unless the
existence of the North were threatened by a coalition
attack by South Korea and the US, a scenario of little
possibility to South Korea if the consequence of such an
attack is considered.

Theoretically, Japan may
feel threatened by a nuclear-armed North Korea as Korean
people still have unhappy memories of Japan's brutal
occupation of Korea early in the last century, and some
years ago a missile launched by North Korea flew over
Japan's territory, which astonished Japan. Yet a careful
look at the situation will reveal no authentic threat to
Japan by North Korea. Japan is one of the most powerful
countries in the world in science and technology and its
technological capability sometimes is even formidable to
the US. Japan can make nuclear bombs within a short
time. Its Self-Defense Force is armed to the teeth. And
moreover, Japan's economy is the world's second-largest.
If North Korea provocatively attacked Japan, Japan's
retaliation would undoubtedly be destructive. Therefore,
North Korea's nuclear threat to Japan does not have much
real basis in fact.

Should China feel
threatened? China now is North Korea's only ally in East
Asia. It has a friendship treaty with North Korea and it
supplies the country with what it needs most to survive
in an extremely isolating world. China and North Korea
joined hands in fighting against US-led United Nations
troops in the early 1950s. Moreover, China is not a
small country. Taking all the above into consideration,
China will not be a target of North Korea's nuclear
threat, at least within the foreseeable future.

And Russia? Russia also has good relationship
with North Korea and now is that country's only
advanced-weapons supplier. North Korea cannot threaten
Russia with nuclear weapons as Russia's nuclear
capability can compete with that of the US.

Can
North Korea threaten the US? Compared with US military
power (not to mention US nuclear capability), North
Korea obviously cannot threaten the US even if it
possesses some long-range rockets and even if it does
have nuclear weapons. Now that North Korea is listed by
the US as a rogue country and as part of the "axis of
evil", survival has become its priority. No leader in
North Korea would be so crazy as to provoke the US if
the country wants to survive.

Pyongyang's
dilemmaIf the above statements are reasonable,
it is not difficult to see that North Korea's nuclear
program would only have defensive meaning rather than
offensive meaning (this view has even been shared by Roh
Moo-hyun, president of South Korea - a longtime close
ally of the US). Thus the US strategy to dismantle North
Korea's nuclear program without a promise of security or
any economic incentive is clearly a coercive policy
based mainly on its overwhelming military strength. This
leaves North Korea only two choices to make: to give up
the nuclear program without any guarantee of its
security, or to become another Iraq. From North Korea's
perspective, if it gives up its nuclear program without
a security agreement, it would mean accepting an
automatic "regime change", and if it refuses to give up
its nuclear program, it might follow Iraq's example.

But even though North Korea's nuclear program is
undeniably developed for defensive purposes, the
potential impact on the world would be very serious as
it may encourage many other countries to possess nuclear
weapons, even including Japan. If more countries are
armed with nuclear weapons, nuclear wars will be more
likely. Hence the world would become more dangerous.
Furthermore, if nuclear technology falls into the hands
of terrorists, the whole world would be under the cloud
of terrorism, a situation no country would like to see,
especially the US, as it has experienced the most
horrible terrorist attack of all. It is probably for
this reason that the US succeeded in motivating North
Korea's neighbors to join its efforts in dismantling
North Korea's nuclear program, resulting in the
six-party talks, in which China is also involved.

Obviously the six-party talks are a feasible way
to end North Korea's nuclear program and thereby relieve
the world of possible nuclear horrors as outlined above.
However, the US has up to now refused to give North
Korea any security promises or economic incentives,
which North Korea needs badly to survive, in exchange
for North Korea's total abandonment of its nuclear
program, and there is still no sign that the US might
change its approach. Instead the US keeps pressuring
North Korea's neighbors to talk Pyongyang into complying
with US demands and keeps asking North Korea to give up
its nuclear project completely while at the same time
listing North Korea as part of an "axis of evil" that
should be eliminated. Not surprisingly, this situation
has not been accepted by North Korea, which is fully
aware that a similar strategy was used against Saddam
Hussein by the US before it invaded Iraq.

The
six-party smokescreenWhen all measures the US
has up to now taken toward North Korea are put together,
a picture of the US policy becomes crystal-clear: giving
North Korea no chance to exist. But if this is the US
policy, what is its motive for getting involved in the
six-party talks?

The fact is that the US has
much to gain by participating in the talks. First, by
doing so the US may impress on the world that it has
some sincerity in negotiating with North Korea to end
the nuclear crisis in a peaceful way. Second, the US may
build more pressure on North Korea to make it comply
with the US requirements (though possibly the US may
also feel some pressure to make certain concessions to
North Korea). Third, if North Korea is willing to comply
with the US demands, other parties may share the
economic aid if economic incentives are finally given to
North Korea under international pressure. Fourth, if the
talks fail, parties other than the US alone may also
take some blame. Fifth, within the six-party framework
the US can consolidate its ties with its allies South
Korea and especially Japan and coordinate efforts with
them. Sixth, the US may take control of the procedures
and duration of the talk according to its needs (eg if
Iraq still has not gained stability and if US forces are
constrained there) and may choose whatever result it
wants within the talks without being the only target of
criticism. Seventh, the US may use the six-party talks
to reduce China's vigilance on the movement and
deployment of its military forces in the western Pacific
Ocean close to Taiwan. Eighth, the United States can use
the six-party talks (more precisely the North Korea
crisis) to achieve its strategic purposes at a low
diplomatic cost, such as the deployment of its missile
defense system. With the above considerable foreseeable
benefits, the US using a smokescreen like the six-party
talks is too good to pass up.

Clearly, ending
North Korea's nuclear crisis or even eliminating "evil"
is not the ultimate goal of the US. What the US really
wants, and is exploiting the North Korea "crisis" to
achieve, is to deploy sufficient military forces and
resources in the western Pacific (especially close to
Taiwan) so as to encourage Taiwan independence, thereby
checking China's growth as a power that might compete
with the US. Not long ago, the US and Japan were talking
about using Japan's Shimoji Island as a military base.
Only about 200 miles from Taiwan, Shimoji has a "runway
capable of safely handling a fully loaded F-15C fighter
jet", observed James Brooke in the New York Times.

If some day Taiwan becomes independent (or
rather the 51st US state), it would not surprise the
world. Yet it would reduce China to a state that may
never be able to challenge the US. If that day comes,
obviously the US should be grateful to North Korea, for
it has created a perfect smokescreen for the US to be
well positioned to diminish China.