At this point
in our civilization though, a different methodology on how to
project game-to-game consistency and year-end totals in fantasy
football isn’t likely to net me a Pulitzer Award or Nobel
Peace Prize.

That said, last year, I finally had enough of the “experts’
way” of projecting year-end fantasy numbers and went about
creating one of my own. Sure, I spent as much time as anyone making
sure I was caught up on the latest developments, but when it came
right down to it, I always thought I would take a look at the
rankings I respected the most and then branch off from that. While
it might work that way for some, it doesn’t for me.

Even the most highly paid fantasy football scribes are content
to add or subtract 100-200 yards from a players’ total from
the previous year and suggest he is in line for a certain amount
of touchdowns and move on to the next player, with little regard
as to how a player will achieve those numbers or a schedule he
will face. (So, in the end, fantasy owners are left with a set
of rankings and numbers that are derived from a small group of
people who are paid, quite simply, to make sure they don’t
deviate too far from the company line, or in this case, from the
line of realism that most owners are willing to accept for the
upcoming season when the harsh reality is that the NFL is not
a realistic league in terms of numbers it produces. What do I
mean by that? Half of the consensus 10-12 players that just about
everyone believes is a first-round pick in any given season will
disappoint.)

While the above approach of “towing the company line”
may work for players who are content playing in the most lax of
leagues, a player’s projected totals only tell part of the
story. In competitive head-to-head leagues, it is paramount to
gauge a player’s consistency, something my colleague, Matt
Waldman, has done a fine job of in his years of work with “The
Crank Score”.

I would like, at the very least, to complement his work with
what I think is my own innovative approach.

In fantasy football, just as in life, we seek predictable consistency.
While injuries, age or indifference on either side of the ball
will skew numbers in ways that no one can predict, there are also
many “good bets” that owners should at least be mindful
of when they are deciding on a player’s fantasy prospects
for the upcoming season, such as the run-stopping prowess of the
Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings. With
that in mind, why would any owner want their RB to face these
teams, especially in the fantasy playoffs? Likewise, the Atlanta
Falcons and Miami Dolphins figure to have poor pass defenses,
at the very least. Why would an owner not want to see those teams
on the schedule multiple times?

I have found in my two years of using this method that it is
only when one considers each player and each game on the schedule
that one can get truly get a feel for just how easy or difficult
it may be. A stretch of four tough matchups to start the season
may weigh on an offense’s psyche to the point where they
play well under expectations for the whole season while a slate
of below-average run defenses may give an offense the confidence
necessary to overcome even the stoutest of defenses when they
face one near the end of the season.

Do I have every conceivable fantasy contributor projected? No.
I have used this method on 230 players (not including kickers
or team defenses) and I fully realize that about a handful of
players will emerge from third- or fourth-string status (as Ryan
Grant did last season) to achieve the admiration of fantasy
owners. But if analyzing the schedule and breaking it down player-by-player
helps me find two more players that capable of being starters
in my lineup and helps me avoid busts (like it did with Lee
Evans last season), each of my teams figure to be likely championship
contenders.

What follows is my best attempt at factoring in as many variables
into the season as I can in a semi-efficient but useful tool on
draft day.

Step 1

Before I do anything, I spend most of the early part of the summer
reviewing changes made to a team’s personnel. Did the team
bring in a rookie QB? A new head coach or coordinator? If they
did bring a new coach/coordinator, what side of the ball did he
specialize in? Did the team change their offensive line coach?
What draft picks did the team make and how quickly do I think
they will impact the team? What free agents did the team add/subtract
from the roster?

Those are just a handful of questions I ask myself while taking
the first step in my summer-long journey, which is figuring each
team’s yards per carry (YPC) allowed and yards per attempt
(YPA) allowed.

The first question I would expect is: why would anyone care about
YPC and YPA allowed? While many things in fantasy football are
constantly in a state of flux, I have found YPC against for the
running game and YPA against for the passing game to be excellent
predictors of how successful a defense is (or in this case, will
be).

Step 2

After setting up a blank spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel, I go
through the painstaking process of entering in each player that
figures to have fantasy relevancy throughout the season. (In other
words, a team’s starting QB – and sometimes their
backup, depending on the team – two RBs, three WRs (except
in rare cases at both positions) and at least one TE. I then add
the schedule and my projected YPC and YPA allowed under each opponent
to keep my expectations in check.

While many fantasy owners want to talk about strength of schedule
(in terms of what a defense did against a certain position last
year), most do not take the time to speculate on what they may
do this season. I believe this is one huge benefit to this system.

Since I will be concentrating on the running backs in this article,
I will hone in on a player who is creating a fair amount of buzz
in the fantasy community due to a highly-publicized switch in
offensive coordinators – Frank Gore.

It is now time to highlight which teams I believe are superb matches
for Gore (green) as well as ones I would prefer to avoid (red).
Just because I think a game presents a bad matchup for Gore
doesn’t necessarily mean that my projections will reflect
that. More often than not, however, they will go hand in hand.

After seeing that
just two defenses were highlighted as “avoid matchups”,
an astute reader may notice that the Saints’ run defense
is projected to have a lower YPC allowed than either Dallas or
Seattle. What gives? A change I made from my original concept
last season was taking individual matchups into account as opposed
to just looking at the average, factoring in such things as home
vs. road defense (Seattle has a tendency to play incredible defense
at home) and expected play from players that will likely need
to contain Gore (i.e. linebackers). While Jonathan Vilma should
dramatically upgrade New Orleans’ LB corps, I believe the
Cowboys’ will do a good job stopping the run plus keep Gore
from wrecking too much havoc in the passing game.

Most of the numbers to the right of the blue line should
be self-explanatory. They are the yards and TDs expected in a
given game. Certainly, this model can be altered with (or added
on to) for those owners in PPR leagues.

However, here’s a legend for the numbers on the left side
of the blue line so you can follow my next level of madness.

(1) Total fantasy points scored,(2) The projected 15-game totals
expected from the player (as most league titles are decided in
Week 16),(3) The points scored from yards
and points scored from TDs that lead to the total in (1),(4) The projected average of points
in Weeks 15-16 (most leagues’ playoff weeks).

(Remember, since I only chart through 16 weeks, the numbers on
the left side of the blue line are 15-game totals and assume participation
in every game. Don’t worry, this will be a problem I will
address when I wrap up this three-part series.)

Let’s consider another example that incorporates more good
and poor matchups.

With good reason, many owners seem to be down on LJ this year.
But take a second to consider who he will be going against this
season. He faces Oakland and Denver twice, Atlanta once and Miami
in what will be Championship Week for most owners. He has a history
of doing well vs. San Diego as well, meaning nearly half of his
matchups could be very solid ones for him. Believe me, I am not
a big fan of his offensive line (and I put as much weight into
that when projecting RBs as I do anything, if not more so), but
Johnson will get the touches and likely the lion’s share
of red zone opportunities with Kansas City, even more than Tony
Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe.

This chart, if mostly accurate, would lend much credence to the
notion that LJ will be like a good #2 fantasy RB in terms of consistency
but a possible low-end #1 RB in terms of overall production. Owning
LJ this season figures to be akin to a rollercoaster ride, but
if his owners can get through the first half in good shape, they
should be in for solid production in the second half. By that
time, I would expect the combination of rookie LT Branden Albert
and LG Brian Waters to be working more cohesively, making LJ a
likely stud in the final weeks of the 2008 season. The biggest
question for most owners will be whether or not he will remain
healthy enough to get to that point. I tend to believe he will,
as his foot injury last season certainly was not caused by his
workload the previous season. That said, I put a fair amount of
stock into the workload
articles that have been published
on this site, as they are not only good reads, but also serve
a cautionary tale about putting too much faith into a player that
has carried too much of the weight in a given season.

Either way, LJ makes for a great case study on why this analysis
is well worth the time put into it. If I am reasonably confident
that he post numbers close to what I have projected here and think
he can make it back to me in the middle of the second round, I
may be more apt to target a player at another position (Randy
Moss?) with my first pick with the idea that the Patriots’
WR will far out-produce just about everyone else’s #1 WR
while feeling very confident that LJ will match the production
of a lot of #1 RBs selected in the first round. It is that kind
of “acceptable” tradeoff that separates the also-rans
in fantasy leagues from the championship teams.

Wrapping Up…

In the coming days, I will follow this with the second part of
this three-part series where I discuss quarterbacks, wide receivers
and tight ends. Sure, it would be wonderful if everyone agreed
with my projections (in this article and in the upcoming ones),
it is not necessary and does not take away just how large of a
role matchups should play into the thinking of owners not only
during the season, but also during the drafting process. Securing
a “soft matchup” during the fantasy playoffs should
not be an accident; it should really be something that an owner
seeks to find in the draft.

The third part of this series will tie in all the positions,
the ranking and tiering of the players as well as address the
“participation issue” I mentioned earlier.