It’s Rountree vs. Huttman On The Pages Of Roll Call

The possibility of President Obama winning Georgia in 2012 is the subject of an article in Roll Call featuring not one but two Peach Pundit Front Pagers. OK so Mark and Chris aren’t actually going head to head but they do so often I couldn’t resist the headline.

Rountree:

“If Obama is going to win a red state, this is his most likely pickoff state,” longtime Georgia Republican political consultant Mark Rountree said. “If he’s going to be making a play for one, I would be looking for him to be making a play here first.” Rountree, skeptical it could be done, believes Georgia’s demographic shifts have made an Obama victory there possible

Huttman:

Specifically, the number of voting-age Hispanics in Georgia grew by 240,000 from 2000 to 2010 — an extraordinary increase of more than 80 percent. Coupled with a large population of black voters who overwhelmingly favored Obama in 2008, there might be a formula for the Democrats to capture the state.

“2008 wasn’t the high-water mark with African-American voters,” said Chris Huttman, a Democratic consultant and pollster in Georgia. “It’s the new floor.”

I wouldn’t declare that too fast. Honestly, you’d probably be right. But, in the event a Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich were the unlikely nominee, Georgia would be very competitive, and I’d posit Obama would have a clear edge in that scenario.

First: remember this is a BIG turnout year, as opposed to non-presidential election years (like 2010) . Different voters vote.

Looking at this analytically, Obama carried 47% in 2008. The black vote in Georgia has steadily increased to 30% of all voters, up from 19% in 1996 (Dole v Clinton). That’s pretty dramatic. Historically, black voters give Democrats 94-98% of their vote.

In 2010, 28% of Georgia voters were black–despite Obama not even being on the ticket.

In 2012, it is entirely possible that 32% of all Georgia voters will be black voters — with 31 of that 32 going to Obama.

10% of registered voters are minorities who are not black (Hispanic, Asian, Other): this group might split their vote, slightly trending to Democrats. Though they vote in lower percentages than whites or blacks, 7% of all actual voters (who actually vote on election day next November) might be non-black minorities. Hypothetically give Obama 4 of these 7%, 3of the 7 for the Republican nominee.

If that is the case, white voters would make up 61% of the electorate in Georgia.

Therefore a Republican candidate for President must win 76% of the white vote to win a majority of the statewide vote. That’s a tall order when some white voters are simply Democrats: after all, some are Union members, some are gay voters, some vote on abortion, some live off money from the federal government, and some are simply … liberal.

I think the Republican nominee still wins Georgia. But this…gets harder every passing year.