2018 Emmy Predictions for Reality, Talk & Sketch: Matt Roush on Who Will & Should Win

CATEGORY: Outstanding Reality Competition

The Amazing Race

American Ninja Warrior

Project Runway

RuPaul’s Drag Race

Top Chef

The Voice

Trae Patton/NBC

Most Likely to Win

Emmy voters tend to be creatures of habit in this category — remember the seven-year run of The Amazing Race? — and with three consecutive wins by NBC’s powerhouse The Voice, chances are good it will be victorious yet again.

VH1

Should Win

In this era of empowerment, the defining message of RuPaul’s Drag Race — “If you don’t love yourself, how the hell you gonna love somebody else?” — resonates stronger than ever. And with two Outstanding Host wins in a row for RuPaul Charles, the blisteringly funny drag competition struts tallest among its peers.

Robert Voets/CBS

Should Have Been Nominated

CBS’s pioneering Survivor, still delivering the exotic goods after 36 seasons. Stop taking this show for granted.

Comedy Central

CATEGORY: Outstanding Variety/Sketch Series

At Home with Amy Sedaris

Drunk History

I Love You, America with Sarah Silverman

Portlandia

Saturday Night Live

Tracey Ullman’s Show

Will Heath/NBC

Most Likely to Win

The juggernaut of NBC’s Saturday Night Live, with 21 nominations, remains the cultural bellwether of our times. Uneven to be sure, but still capable of instantly iconic moments other shows can only dream of.

KC Bailey/Turner

Should Win

As a sustained piece of deliciously deranged lunacy, truTV’s At Home With Amy Sedaris deserves to be in a category of its own.

IFC

Should Have Been Nominated

They pretty much got this one right.

Scott Kowalchyk/CBS

CATEGORY: Outstanding Variety/Talk Series

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee

Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

The Late Late Show with James Corden

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Eric Liebowitz/HBO

Most Likely to Win

When on a show’s on an Emmy roll, like HBO’s Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, you can bet nothing will stop this from a third straight win. The Jon Stewart Daily Show dominated the field for a decade, and Oliver’s deep-dive rants have inherited that mantle.

Myles Aronowitz/TBS

Should Win

The appropriately pugnacious voice for our #MeToo and Time’s Up times, TBS’s landmark Full Frontal with Samantha Bee is a deserving disrupter.

Lloyd Bishop/NBC

Should Have Been Nominated

NBC’s Late Night with Seth Meyers. The former “Weekend Update” anchor’s “A Closer Look” dissections of the day’s most outrageous news are genius. Really!

Judging by the list of nominees for this year's 2018 Emmy Awards, we might be in for one of the most exciting nights in TV history!

The September 17 NBC awards show will be filled with tight races in all of the categories this year, including the Reality and Variety categories. That's why we've recruited our own Matt Roush to help predict this year's winners — and to break down those who should actually win. Plus, he shines a light on those series and stars that were snubbed from nomination.