What every U.S. commander in Bosnia is thinking:
Weather, 'enemy' and terrain.

From Military Analyst Lt. Gen. Marvin Covault (U.S. Army
ret.)

(CNN) -- Weather, "enemy" and terrain, it may sound like a
simple formula, but the myriad of variables associated with
each element makes it a formidable task, most especially in
Bosnia. Let's examine each:

WEATHER:

Beyond the obvious -- cold living conditions and snow-
covered roads -- what impact does the Bosnian winter have on
this operation?

It is at least 100 percent harder to accomplish the
required tasks this time of year than it would be
during the summer months. Consider that NATO troops are not
going to Bosnia to sit around in static positions along a
picket line. Thousands of square miles of mostly rugged
terrain along the confrontation lines must be patrolled; to
do so, cross country mobility is essential. But in Bosnia,
winter mobility ranges from difficult to impossible in some
areas.

Secondly, weather has an adverse impact on force
protection because rapid reaction of ground reinforcements is
inhibited. Additionally, impossible flying conditions many
days, December through February, reduces or eliminates
integrated air/ground operations in the event ground troops
need air support. Bottom line, the weather may render some
tasks impossible to accomplish under the peace plan's time
table and it significantly increases the risks to all NATO
air and ground elements.

'ENEMY':,

First, one must put the term "enemy" in the context of a
peace enforcement mission. Obviously, there is no
confrontation line between NATO forces and the
warring factions. NATO is not going to Bosnia to pick a
fight. However, there is a high probability of hostility at
the local level over the location of the entity boundaries,
property ownership, acts of atrocity, etc. The frustrations
and anger may well be vented on the NATO forces. Revenge is
a strong motivation in the Balkans and use of force is the
norm.

For any commander, the worst enemy is one who is an
unknown quantity with unknown intentions while operating in
his own back yard with local support. This "enemy" will have
unlimited opportunities to strike first, strike without
warning and strike at a time and place of his choosing. The
"enemy" in Bosnia does, then, present a formidable challenge.

TERRAIN:

Terrain presents the military commanders at every level
with formidable obstacles made worse by adverse weather.
Bosnia is mostly heavily wooded and mountainous with steep
slopes coming down to roadways. Main roads often follow
river beds bordered by rock cliffs and interrupted every few
miles by bridges and tunnels. Secondary roads are frequently
no more than narrow forest trails without all-weather
surfacing and, at high altitudes, impossible during the
winter.

Further, the ridge/valley/ridge compartmentation leads to
heavy fog lying for days on end in the valleys, making
air-to-ground operations impossible for both helicopters and
fixed-wing aircraft.

Weather/Enemy/Terrain sounds simple enough, but it
confronts every commander every day with challenges in
accomplishing his mission while protecting his
troops.