Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obamas running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Montana voters say McCain is too old to be President while 42% say Obama is too inexperienced.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montanas 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

I am convinced that the older democrats are completely divorced from reality these days. They seriously believe that any hardships the nation experiences now are the fault of Republicans, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. I’m very familiar with one, and anytime something bad happens, it’s “this is Bush’s fault.” Literally.

Montana? Suspect the methodology. Polling isn’t so much a measurement but a “crowd control” manipulation. It works, that’s why billions are spent on this kind of thing. What do you Suppose that all those nebulous feel-good alphabet agencies like the “Centers For Public Policy and Social Research” are doing at all those universities anyway?

They did provide a web link to their “poll results”, but on the end page they had a blurb where they claimed that the #1 issue that a huge majority of our states hunters and fisherman worried about was “Global Warming”. What this type of propaganda depends on is the “herd instinct”, apparently. It derives its’ usefulness on people who cannot think critically or, objectively. The aim is to marginalize what may in fact be majority opinion and present it as extreme and in the minority, and inflate the radical, BS point of view as reasonable and in reality the majority view. Rinse, lather repeat.

If this poll is correct, then it’s not only McCain in trouble. America loses big time if Obama wins in MT.

This poll just doesn’t sound right though because it suggests if Obama is winning GOP leaning states then he is headed for perhaps a 45 state blow out. If he is doing that well in MT and Indiana, then he should have huge leads in OH, PA, MI, and even FL. But there the race is close or he is behind. This is just very odd.

there is a glow around Obama since he has cinched the nomination. As it gets later in the election people will think harder and deeper about things and reconnect with their cultural and ideological inclinations and his being the new flavor will be less and less important. But, then again it is a serious mistake if Republicans and Conservatives don't figure out that their back is to the wall and they had better do something instead of denying the obvious (as so many on this site are doing) or just being country clubbers serving themselves Tea on the deck of the titanic while watching it go down and doing nothing to save themselves.

Yes and I hope that explains poll results like this. But you think Rasmussen would cook the numbers like that? They don’t seem to have much of an agenda usually and are highly regarded by many FR members. I would dismiss this as inaccurate but Obama has shown remarkable strength (in various polls) in many states where Dems are usually written off.

Even if the polls are not right I fear with McCain coming out behind in so many of them that this will depress the GOP base even further, and cause fundraising to drop. People will think he has no chance.

Hey, your getting carried away again with your poll obsessions . I recall the LAT poll you were freaking out over too. MT has become a weird place full of Ex Calif lefties retires so its shifting left but not this left. I travel to MT for work so how does anyone poll the place . Everyone has a cell phone due to its size and home phones are now rare. I think Scott R got a bad batch of real poor data here . A state does not swing this far another way in one month. I also think Scott is trying to get on the lib TV spots that pay well so his polling is shifting to the left. You don't get ask on CNN or NBC if the Repub is ahead folks but if you have a unusual poll like this one then all the Obama media drones want you to appear.

Your right . I think the Obama media is trying to promote that story line. Drudge ignores any poll with McCain ahead and he is the Obama media . Drudge ignored the MI or FL polls by Scott R but features the Obama latest PR story line that Obama is strong in the west. Its the basic “ saying something long enough until you make it the reality”. Classic Herr Goebbels

a good friend in Montana tells me that liberal Californians are invading Montana in large numbers.

I hear about this Roe effect of supposedly leftie women aborting their babies but from everything I read it seems its the Blue staters that are leaving their states and spreading across the country, a la NH, VT, CO, OR, WA, etc and now MT. Is there a state that has become more Red due to internal migration?

No he isn’t. This is a libertarian state and I suppose I can see with the spin why they think he’s one of them. However the NRA will be going after Obama on guns - they are earmarking $15-40 million - he won’t carry (pun intended).

37
posted on 07/03/2008 8:02:13 PM PDT
by Norman Bates
(Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)

My patience is wearing thin while waiting for McCain to show more fighting spirit in his campaign. He needs to take Obama on head to head on every political issue AND character. Too much wimpiness going on.

39
posted on 07/03/2008 8:50:39 PM PDT
by varina davis
(Life is not a dress rehearsal)

Montana was one of the last primary states for the Dims and there were lots of Obama ads on TV as well as some Clinton ads. He’s been here three or four times as well.

He has continued to put ads on TV. I see about one a day on local television.

Most polishysters don’t even know Montana exists.

Anyway...there have been a lot of ads. People here in Montana are just tired of the crap that comes from the Dims and the Stupidublicans. Change is a powerful word.

McCain hasn’t don’t anything in this state from what I can see. Nothing at all. I don’t expect much from him at all as far as campaigning goes. I just don’t expect much from Republicans at all regarding a campaign in Montana.

I am kind of resigned to President Obama but then I was kind of resigned to Hillary getting the Dim nod.

40
posted on 07/03/2008 10:02:29 PM PDT
by montomike
(If you didn't find this funny or amusing...have a worldwide riot.)

Everybody needs to calm down. It's a long road that doesn't have a turn. When we get into the stretch, our guy will be there. This OBAMA is a four-flusher and flip-flopper who wouldn't cross the street for a free egg sandwich (couldn't make up his mind).

We're going to be OK, the greatest generation hasn't left yet, and they still have work to do. You'll see.

A loss of Mondalian proportions. The Repubs, in all their “wisdom” will take the drubbing and learn the wrong lesson and tack even further leftward, losing election after election. Eventually they will have driven all of us traitorous conservatives from the party. They will not die over night, they don’t have the ba!!s to call it like it is and go quietly into the dark night, they will have to be starved to death, slowly. Only then can us traitorous conservatives create an actual conservative party as the mere Republicans join the Whigs on the ash heap where they quite frankly belong.

44
posted on 07/04/2008 10:19:08 AM PDT
by Grunthor
(May vote against Obama with the right incentive.)

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