Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Not an April Fool's joke. This humble scribe will be flitting hither and thither in the next 24 hours, with little time to play sillydevils on the interwebnetpipes. See you late tomorrow night or Good Friday.

Our accountants have raised substantial doubt with respect to our ability to continue as a going concern.

As noted in our financial statements, we have incurred a net loss of $16,662,828 for the period from inception on March 6, 2000 to December 31, 2009 and have no present source of revenue. At December 31, 2009, we had a working capital deficiency of $14,807,730. As of December 31, 2009, we had cash and cash equivalents in the amount of US $205,125. We will have to raise additional funds to meet our currently budgeted operating requirements for the next twelve months.

The audit report of James Stafford, Inc., Chartered Accountants, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2009 and 2008 contained a paragraph that emphasizes the substantial doubt as to our continuance as a going concern. This is a significant risk that we may not be able to generate and/or raise enough resources to remain operational for an indefinite period of time.

Vena Resources (VEM.to) up 3% at $0.34 and following through on its good day yesterday. News that newboy Lima brokers Kallpa (who did such a good job with the local listing of Rio Alto (RIO.v) recently) has taken VEM on as a client in Peru has seen strong volume in the Lima exchange today, with right now a 6.25% climb and 425k shares traded there.VEM is finally getting its act together, methinks. It's taken long enough.

Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) down 0.4% at $2.66 and taking a breather from the recent upside moves. We're still waiting on the publication of the San José PFS, which I hear now looks set for "early April" (whatever that may mean). No worries, we be patient dudes here and we lurve FVI.

Carpathian (CPN.to) UNCH at $0.38 on low volumes. CPN looked like breaking out a couple of weeks ago but has gone all quiet on the world again. Ho hum.

B2Gold (BTO.to) UNCH at $1.26 on good volumes. BTO has traded like a dog for the past couple of weeks. Over at The IKN Weekly we marked this one down for a quick ST trade and it looked good for a while, but didn't reach our target and has now fallen back to (more or less) its starting point. So be it. .

Cardero Resources (CDY) down 1.5% at U$1.33. Wowsers, you just gotta love the way these guys have managed to add shareholder value all through this metals bull..........but don't worry shareholder; even if you haven't benefitted much yourself you've managed to make Henk a rich man (and ValuePro has managed to keep up on his mortgage payments thanks to you, too). Bet that makes you feel better, eh?

I thought about taking a look at the gold/silver ratio (aka GSR) this morning on the blog, but luckily somebody that understands charts far better than this humble scribe has already published on the subject today.

Seabridge Gold (SEA.to) (SA) is a very special company, as only this dog is able to make Nadagold (NG) properties look comparatively economic. The PEA is out on its large KSm property today and what we're led to believe by these scamsters is that spending U$3.365Bn (with a 'B') on a gold mine that projects an IRR of 8.8% at $900/oz Au is a jolly sensible idea. The world has gone mad. This is mass hypnosis.

As for Gammon Gold (GAM.to), Brian Quast of CIBC came out with an all-time classic line this morning in his analysis of results that sees him dropping his target heavily on the company. Brian sez:

During 2009, most drilling was focused on the Ocampo pit. Unfortunately, this resulted in a significant decrease in reserves and resources by reducing the tonnage and grade in the pit, despite using a higher gold price. This has shrunk the pit outline and reduced the mine life.

Or put into normal English, "These GAM dudes have been bullshitting the market forever about the quality of resource at Ocampo, but now that it's been drilled out we know it's a PoS".

...this one, from this good summary post of the recent CEPAL/ECLAC report on inequality in Latin America:

Guess which country has the lowest Gini coefficient in all LatAm in 2008, signifying the least inequality in the region? Answer, Venezuela. Guess which country most improved its inequality position in the period 2002 to 2008? Yep, Venezuela. This is why you haven't heard a word about this important CEPAL report in your EngLang media. I mean, you can't possibly go around saying nice things about Chávezlandia, can you?

The world's longest surviving hostage has been freed. In Colombia a couple of hours ago Pablo Moncayo was handed over by the FARC terrorist scum and is now on his way home after spending over 12 years in captivity.

Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) up 3.6% at $0.86 and making foolish numbskull hangers-on into veritable science whizzes. Set to continue too, I hear.

Gammon Gold (GRS) down 8.43% at U$7.71. Another quarter, another set of way crap results from Gammon. This must be the worst producing gold miner in the world, the excuses and "please Sir! It wasn't my fault!" bull as to why it constantly underperforms is never-ending. Joke miner, avoid forever, even though the sycophantic Canadian houses will pump it into your portfolio given half a chance.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v) down 26.5% at $0.72 and was lower earlier. Ouch for longs, opportunity for others.

Apoquindo Minerals (AQM.v) up 4.7% at $0.89. What's likeable here are the top managers on board and decent prospects. What's off-putting are the liars and snakes that run the IR campaign. Yeah, I'm talking about you, the "oh-so-innocent" mailer from yesterday that pretended to be an interested reader wanting an opinion on an AQM puff piece but in fact was sitting at his desk in Kin Communications while mailing me from his freakin' gmail account. Why can't you be honest with people, IR monkeys? Try it one day..it's fun.

Nary a week seems to pass without uranium getting pumped as "just about to rocket". This week the baton passed to Amir Adnani, CEO of Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) that, COINCIDENTALLY, has seen its chart go all flat and boring and low-volumey recently.

So to pump up da volume , Adnani told Bloomie today that prices were just about to jump from today's $40s to $100/lb (love!! round!! numbers!!) by the end of this year and that, "Towards the end of this year, uranium prices will start to move higher because the utilities that have uncovered forward demand will come back in the market to buy uranium either in the spot market or in the term market. We are going to see some hyper activity. Prices will have a similar run-up movement witnessed in the summer of 2007". Innarestin', huh?

In other news;

GATA today announced that we should all buy gold because gold is going to go higher, a news statement that shocked the world.

The copper buyers association of China says that buying copper is a very cool thing.

The cake maker's consortium of the USA stated today that cakes are good for you and that we should definitely buy more cakes.

The large stick chamber of commerce revealed that carrying a large stick will be this summer's top fashion trend.

My thanks to reader PV for sending this link to a very interesting BBC News report. That quote in the title comes from Tristan Lecomte, the dude heading up a tree-planting project in the Amazon Basin of Peru and Bolivia sponsored by Nestlé. Here's a small excerpt from the article:

"Nestle Waters France wants to offset the equivalent of all the annual carbon emissions from its Vittel mineral water production in France and Belgium - approximately 115,000 tonnes of carbon a year.

"In order to do this, it will fund the planting of 350,000 trees in an existing project in the Bolivian Amazon and a new one in the jungle of Peru with a view to renewing the same number of trees every year."

Now for sure these big company carbon offsetting schemes have often been plenty talk with little action, but this one really seems to be working for all concerned; the locals, the major international company and the environment. Therefore the small excerpt above does little justice to the whole report and I strongly suggest you read the whole thing.

Focus Ventures (FCV.v) came out with drill results from its 'Nueva California' project this morning. Find the presser right here and find the market reaction right here:

Yup, exploration is a tough, tough game. The drills found gold, but really not enough to make anybody go "this is a mine". However all is not lost, cos the people behind FCV.v aren't a bunch of scamsters. Quite the opposite in fact; they have a high reputation for good work and honesty (not like others we could mention that constantly BS the market and need to be avoided like the plague).

So Focus Ventures has lost a round in the fight, but not the fight itself. Over at The IKN Weekly we've been watching and waiting on the stock without taking a position, so if the price drops sufficiently there may eventually be a buying opportunity (but there'll be no rush to move in this week, that's for sure). More on Sunday, folks, but so far the waiting game on this play has paid off.

Whatever's going on in Germany around Vena Resources (VEM.to) (V1R.f) this morning, it's sure making the stock move:

That's over 900k shares traded and a 15% upmove in the first couple of hours. Very nice to see some good volume and price movement in the stock. Right now it's trading at €0.25, which is U$0.337 and CAD$0.343 at today's forex.

VEM.to closed in Canada yesterday at CAD$0.285, so there's a bit of upside in the offing here. DYODD.

UPDATE: make that 1.1m shares traded, because Vena stock is trading chunks in other city bourses, such as 130k in Stuttgart. Here's a link to an overview.

And here's an excerpt from George Topping of Thomas Weisel, in an update note on metals dated today:

Copper Market Fundamentals: LME Cu inventory has been declining over the past month from a peak of 555kt to the present stockpile of 515mt (lowest since mid-January). Cancelled warrants stand at 20kt, indicating more draws from inventory in the near future.

As an abstract painter, Maine artist Frederick Lynch (born 1935) uses a system of repeated geometries and mathematical divisions to create his art.Kaleidoscope based on "Division 75" by Frederick Lynch.Click the figure below to see the interactive illustration.

As an abstract painter, Maine artist Frederick Lynch (born 1935) uses a system of repeated geometries and mathematical divisions to create his art.Kaleidoscope based on "Division 151" by Frederick Lynch.Click the figure below to see the interactive illustration.

It's turning into gay pride day here at IKN, as first we have the lowdown on the Queer Tango Marathon in BsAs and now just hours later Ricky Martin decides that "today is his day" and finally tells the world what the world has known for....ohhh...a decade or so. From the hand of Ricky in his article:

"I am proud to say that I am a fortunate homosexual man. I am very blessed to be who I am."

Desire Petroleum lost nearly half of its value after the Falklands driller said the reservoir quality of a well in the North Falkland Basin was "poor."

The UK and Argentina will just have to go back to squabbling over the sheep.

(ps: apparently there's a problem with blogger not showing pictures this morning. If you can't see photos/charts on the page don't worry, it's not just you. Normal service will be resumed as soon etc etc).

In 2009 we ran a whole series that compared nine different "small silvers" and also the silver ETF, (SLV) to see which company had the best 2009 perfromance (the winner was EDR.to).

So now that 2010 is nearly a quarter old, it's time to see how the same companies have been getting on so far this year. Here's the chart:

click to enlarge(or steal for your bullboard post, and as usual there's no need at allto give links to the original...i mean, why should a dumbass like you start pretending to be polite after all these years, eh?)

In first place is MAG Silver (MAG.to), which is a bit of a zero-to-hero story as last year it was one of the worst performers. Next comes Fortuna Silver (FVI.to) that's also batting 20%+ win so far this year. Bronze medal position is currently held by Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v).

Then after that comes our benchmark, the silver ETF (SLV), that marks spot silver for us pretty accurately. So all the other stocks, so far this year at least, haven't managed to outperform their main metal product. Also, they're all in plenty negative territory so far this year. For sure we'd expect that from a scummydog like ECU Silver (ECU.to), but tail-ender First Majestic's (FR.to) year to date has been poor.

We'll check on further developments in the small silver sweepstakes in a few weeks' time. Mojitos served, the end.

Here's a slice of IKN47 that went out yesterday. After a discussion on the latest developments over at Fortuna (FVI.to) we did a quick comparative of FVI and Great Panther (GPR.to), in one aspect at least.

FVI and GPR: A quick comparative. You’ll note that in the above discussion of FVI we haven’t gone into much detail about the quarterly results just announced. The reason for that is now there are several larger houses covering FVI and they all came out with update reports on the numbers and the conference call last week (the FVI IR dep’t sent them all to their mailing list, so if you’d like a copy ask them to put you on the list, or if you like ask me and I’ll forward). So now that FVI is getting love from the big boys there’s not that much point for this little boy to just cover the same ground, but one thing I’d like to address here is a comparative of GPR.to (a company that got its financials criticized in IKN46 last week) and FVI (that has just had glowing words thrown at it by the same author).

I’ve been one corner of a mail exchange this week between...let’s just say “some people in mining”... and one line used by one of the participants in the exchange was that some of the key numbers in the 4q09 operation results at GPR and at FVI were rather similar. Here’s a little table that shows those results:

GPR & FVI: selected 4q09 financials

($m)

GPR

FVI

revenues

9.85

16.36

MOI

4.2

10.38

Net Income

1

1

The person who pointed to these numbers was trying to make a case for GPR, defending the company (and also wondering why GPR has dropped around 10% since its earnings report, while FVI has moved up over 12%). After all, what we have are two companies with similar amounts of shares outstanding (revolvingaround 110m), but the different share prices mean that FVI has a market cap three times the size of GPR. Once that is taken into account, the relatively smaller production and mining income (like for like, with amorts and deprec included in both sets of numbers) makes GPR look like quite the bargain, doesn’t it?

Well, doesn’t it?

No, it doesn’t. Firstly, there’s the whole cash cost subterfuge that we looked into last week (I don’t like the wool being pulled over my eyes by a 500tpd miner....sorry, I’m like that). Next, Great Panther has been a producer with two operating mines for a number of years. This means that it should (in fact, in my view ‘must’) be able to pass Rule One*, something it failed to do over the course of 2009. Meanwhile, Fortuna is a company that’s half producer/half explorer and in the 2009 period has had cash to pay out for its San José project while making money at Caylloma.

Finally and more importantly, if we look a little more closely at the two sets of company numbers the perspective changes. The statement of cash flows is where to go to find out the relevant information, and here’s a second little table that shows the real difference between the two companies at this stage of their lives:

GPR& FVI: 2009 cash flow information ($m)

GPR

FVI

net cash provided by ops

1.299

13.686

net cash used in investment

1.757

16.979

This is, of course, also tied up in the abovementioned investment activities happening at FVI San José, but it does show just how much more money FVI is committing to its future growth, with most of it coming from the cash generated by Caylloma. In 2009, GPR operations brought in a touch under $1.3m. By way of investment (drilling at its sites, etc) it spent a touch over $1.75m. Meanwhile, Caylloma provided $13.7m to the FVI cash bucket and the company spent $17m on investment activity. That’s an enormous, basically-factor-of-ten difference, ladies and gentlemen, and the investment getting ploughed into FVI included a full $11m that went on progressing San José to its current stage, a whisker before its PFS publication and virtual certain decision to build this very profitable looking mining operation (on paper, at least).

The real difference between the $100m market cap company and the $300m market cap company is written in that small box above. FVI is simply a different animal; bigger, more dynamic, more profitable and growing faster.

My fave story from last weekend is found here, as Clarin reports on the 42-hour "Queer Tango Marathon" that started Friday evening and ran for 42 hours until Sunday afternoon. The event was sponsored by the National Institute Against Discrimination (INADI), Argentina's Ministry of Justice and Buenos Aires City's Ministry of Culture.

As one of the dancers, Jorge Casi, explained, "In the same way that people in a marathon run 42km, our Queer Tango Marathon lasts 42 hours and is looking to demonstrate that in a modern society, in the tango roles can be reversed and space given to a new style that does not discard the traditional, but adds other variants."

I dunno what Gardel or Discépolo would make of it all, but from this seat in the world and added to the recent homosexual marriages granted in Argentina, it seems as though Buenos Aires is leading South America out of its homophobia with style and grace. A cheer.

What the below means is that Antares Minerals (ANM.v) can get on and drill its 2010 campaign without having to go to market. The fully diluted shares number stays where it is, and $7.5m goes to the cash line. This is a real endorsement of the Haquira project from bigboy financiers that didn't need to exercise these warrants right now but decided to do so in order to add financial backbone to ANM. We very like this news.

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWS WIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Antares Minerals Inc. ("Antares" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:ANM) is pleased to announce that IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, has agreed to exercise all 3,750,000 warrants that it holds to acquire 3,750,000 common shares of the Company for a total subscription cost of $7,500,000. These warrants were acquired by IFC in July of 2009 in connection with a private placement. Each warrant entitles IFC to acquire a common share at an exercise price of $2.00 until July 22, 2014. If at any time following July 22, 2011, the Company's common shares trade at $2.75 or higher for 30 days on a volume weighted-average basis, the Company can give notice accelerating the expiry date of the warrants to 60 days following the date of such notice.

As consideration for IFC agreeing to this early exercise of its warrants, Antares has agreed to issue 1,875,000 new common share purchase warrants to IFC. Each new warrant will entitle IFC to acquire a common share at an exercise price of $3.00 until July 22, 2014. In addition, the Company will grant IFC a contractual right to participate in any future Antares financings to maintain its pro-rata equity interest in the Company.

Closing of this transaction is subject to approval of the TSX Venture Exchange and the negotiation and execution of definitive agreements. The new warrants to be issued pursuant to this financing will be subject to a four month hold period in accordance with Canadian securities law.

John Black, President and CEO of Antares Minerals Inc. commented as follows:

"We appreciate the support that IFC is providing as a significant shareholder in the Company. The funds received from this warrant exercise will enable the Company to aggressively proceed with pre-feasibility and exploration drill programs at Haquira while maintaining a solid balance sheet with minimal share dilution. We expect these programs to start with four rigs in April, pending receipt of updated environmental permits.

In addition to ongoing drill programs in 2010, we are also looking forward to the receipt of a preliminary economic analysis (PEA), or scoping study, of the Haquira project. This PEA will incorporate both the secondary SX-EW and primary sulphide zones that have been established to date at Haquira. We believe that this fully integrated study of the proposed SX-EW/mill-concentrator operation will reveal more fully the potential value of the Haquira project. We expect to receive this report in the next quarter."

Calorific Deficit is a long-used statistical tool in Peru which measures how many people receive the recommended amount of calories per day. In simple terms, it measures how many people go hungry. Because its results are not easily corrupted, the Peru stats office liars have now decided to make this tool "reference purposes only" and not include its results in official national statistics. The INEI prefers its new crooked method that shows poverty dropping year on year.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Every year, website Index on Censorship hands out its annual freedom of expression awards. Here's the site blurb:

The 10th annual Index on Censorship Freedom of Expression Awards honour those who, often at great personal risk, have given voice to issues and stories from around the globe that would otherwise have passed unnoticed

This year one richly deserved prize went to Peru's gagged radio station 'La Voz de Bagua'. Operating in the Amazon region, 'La Voz' was the only independent media source that dared to do something wild in the middle of the Bagua massacre last year, namely tell the truth. Because of this, the government of Peru promptly closed it down and pressed charges of incitement to violence against its owners and broadcasters that have since been laughed out of court.

Can you imagine the ruckus that you'd hear if a country like Venezuela gagged a media channel in such a way? But as it happened in friendly old Peru, it's ignored by the biased English language media channels who just hope these inconvenient truths disappear and are forgotten. So a big, warm round of applause to Index on Censorship for remembering and an even bigger one for La Voz de Bagua. Here's the citation:

The Guardian Journalism Award

This award recognises journalism of dogged determination and bravery

Radio La Voz (Peru)

Operating in Bagua Grande in the Utcubamba Region of Peru, Radio La Voz was founded in 2007 by respected broadcast journalist Carlos Flores Borja and his sons. The aim of the station is to broadcast cultural programmes and information about environmental protection and human rights, fight political corruption and support local communities. Radio La Voz lost its licence in June 2009 after the government accused the station of ‘supporting violence against security forces’ when deadly clashes shook the area in mid-2009. Thirty-four people were killed as Amazonian communities protested about the opening up of huge tracts of land to foreign investment. To date no government representative has offered any evidence to support the veracity of its allegation against the radio station. Flores Borja says that La Voz was only doing its duty as an independent media source. He claims “the government took advantage of the moment to silence a voice critical of its policies”. On 16 February 2010, the case against Radio La Voz was dropped.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

On this link. Click the little man icon to the left of Sprott's photo to download the 39 minute interview (Sprott starts talking at 2:25, so skip the intro and get to the paydirt). Here's the promo blurb to whet your appetite:

Eric Sprott has over 35 years of experience in the investment industry and manages roughly $5 billion. Eric has been stunningly accurate in his writings for quite some time and is one of the highly respected industry professionals who foresaw the current crisis and chronicled the dangers of excessive leverage as well as the bubbles the Fed was creating while correctly forecasting the tragic collapse we are all enduring. In this interview Eric discusses the stock market, bond market, inflation, deflation, gold, silver, gold stocks, consolidation in the gold sector, the economy, the US Dollar, paper currencies globally, tax revenues going down, layoffs in US government jobs in states, oil and much more.

Here's the latest voter intention poll for Brazil's Presidential election, set for October 3rd:

Major newspaper Folha de S. Paulo commissioned the survey taken this week from Datafolha, and put SP's governor in the lead (and up from 32% in a poll last month that was also ran by Datafolha). Lula's PT party candidate Dilma Rousseff scored 27% this week (a point down from last month's 28%), with Brazil socialist Party's (PSB) Ciro Gomes on 11% and the Green Party candidate Marina Silva on 8%.

Five journalists are murdered in the month of March 2010 in Honduras, but word doesn't make it to the outside world via MSM.

But one journalist is arrested and then freed a few hours later in Venezuela and Simone Rosemary thinks it's the most important story of the week and worthy of publication in The New York Times. No mention of reporters getting their lives abruptly ended in US-friendly countries, but hey....this guy opposes Chávez and was held for...like...seven hours.

Why is that? Really, why the f*** do you report LatAm like this, you piece of crap hack?

This comes from the days before Keith shaved his head and tattooed his belly, from the days before Liam decided to get serious and stop making tracks that you could actually dance to, from the days before The Prodge had six figure budgets for their videos.

This is an oldskool kickass dance track. Full volume on your audio playback facilities is necessary for fuller appreciation, ladies and gentlemen.

Troy Resources (TRY.to) up 1.5% at $2.08. It's been nothing ToDaMoonAlice, but TRY has put in a good week. Even better in the higher volume Oz market, where last night's A$2.34 close gives a forex adjusted CAD$2.17 and smacks of better things to com in the Canadian listing.

AuEx Ventures (XAU.to) up 0.7% at $2.97. XAU.to continues to tread water on low volumes, but the new Long Canyon resource number due soon should give the trading a little more impetus (either way, of course). One for those who care little for the day-to-day chatter and look for value holdings in junior miners.

TheNewCrystallex (EC.v) down 47.9% at $0.375 on over 6m shares traded. Have you worked out the residual value of current assets yet? I have, and it's lower than this price. For those caught out by these scamsters, it's worth reflecting that it will become money well spent if you learn from the episode and don't make the same mistake a second time in the future. But if you fall for the next company promo scamjob, you've only yourself to blame.

Constitution Scamming (CMIN.ob) up 3.7% at $0.975 and after reading this morning's press release it was fun to note that Stocker actually cares about what's written at this humble corner of cyberspace. Want my home address too, Michael?

Rio Alto Mining (RIO.v) up 4.1% at $0.77, a new 52 wk high and credit where credit is due. Bob Moriarty got this one absolutely right. Here's his Feb 9th note to prove it.

With a deservedhat-tip to Krupa at LatAm Daily (that site is turning out to be a great blog to follow, folks), here's a graphic of the latest voter intention poll out of Colombia:

It seems as though the race is shaping up in the way envisaged in the "Roadmap" article in IKN46 which was also put up here earlier in the week. We even guesstimated that Santos's numbers would float up to around 35% and his main competition would come from Sanín. So that's working out.

FWIW, I'm sticking with the previous bottom line about this election. The Uribe-backed Santos may look like a shoo-in to outside observers but this one is far too close to call right now. The real election begins on May 31st, the day after the first round when the pacts and deals start getting done. This election is likely to go to the wire.

Three inside trades that caught the eye of this humble scribe while perusing CadInsider this morning.

First up Evolving Gold (EVG.v), the company with good (though at depth) drill results coming from its USA project. Sadly, it's also pumped by über-BSmerchant Peter Grandich, which is enough reason in itself to avoid this stock forever, good rock or not. And lo and behold! we got insiders bailing right now, too: