INDEX BY TITLE

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Eight games to look at this
week. A full slate of seven conference games and a Notre Dame game. As of now
it looks like five of ‘em, give or take one, will be plays.

My current record: 2-3

CRYSTAL
BALL

WEEK OF 10-10-2015

WISCONSIN

27

NEBRASKA

10

OHIO ST

34

MARYLAND

10

PURDUE

24

MINNESOTA

19

INDIANA

24

PENN ST

17

IOWA

28

ILLINOIS

14

MICHIGAN

16

NORTHWESTERN

13

MICHIGAN ST

38

RUTGERS

10

NOTRE DAME

35

NAVY

27

As I pointed out in previous
posts, my method is to make my predictions on Sunday - before I look at the
spreads - to keep from being influenced subconsciously. Any
prediction that varies from the game time spread by seven or more points is
considered a “play”. 50 FTC dollars will be wagered on each “play”. That’s the system. Seven points or more differential,
play it; less than seven, back off. I do make one disclaimer: If a report comes
out during the week (after Sunday) that there is an issue involving the
starting quarterback (an injury I might not have known about) or the coach
(health issues, scandal, etc.), I won’t count the game.Occasionally I might predict a tie, which is
the equivalent of a “pick em”. (For a more detailed description of
what constitutes a “play”, see the “FTC $
Q&A” tab at the top of this post.)

1

2

3

Final

NEBRASKA

0

3

10

10

WISCONSIN

10

13

20

27

I like Wisconsin’s defense in
this matchup. I think it will force Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong into throwing a
few interceptions. I’m guessing Armstrong’s confidence is already shaken after
last week’s debacle, although sometimes a competitor comes back strong after
such a setback. And I think Armstrong probably would bounce back strong if HC
Mike Riley featured him more as a runner than a passer. But I believe Riley is
set on running his passing offense which I think will hurt the ‘Huskers chances
in this one. In fact, I’m guessing Nebraska’s whole team is lacking confidence
as this program is on the brink of going under for the season as the fan base
begins to grumble about the new HC and his 2-3 debut. And under such
circumstances a home game can sometimes be a bad thing as it’s possible the
boo-birds could start crowing the first time something goes wrong. Wisconsin is
coming off a tuff loss as well and struggled offensively. QB Joel Stave had a
horrible game and has a history of contracting a case of the “yips” - a term
they like to use at BTN to define psychological issues. So certainly Stave and
Wisconsin’s offense is a concern. But I don’t think Stave has to be great here,
he just has to be not bad. In fact, I don’t think Wisconsin as a team is all
that great right now. I just think Nebraska isn’t very good.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Nebraska by 1.5, so this prediction will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

OHIO ST

7

10

27

34

MARYLAND

0

7

7

10

I called for Ohio St. to have
a break out game last week and get back to the form the Buckeyes displayed
toward the end of last season’s championship run. Didn’t happen. Most everyone
seems to think it will eventually, so I suppose it could happen against a weak
Maryland team. But I’m calling for an Ohio St. offensive performance similar to
what we saw last week against Indiana. A slow start that only produces ten
first half points. Maryland isn’t that bad defensively. It’s just that the
Terrapins have been terrible offensively. Which of course, puts a lot of
pressure on their defense. So terrible offense or not, I’ll need Marylandto put up at least some points against a
Buckeyes defense that so far, has been merely average. I think they will
somehow – if not with the offense maybe with a William Likely punt or
interception return- and make the final point spread not close, but closer than
what most might expect.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Ohio St. by 33, so this prediction will most likely qualify as
a play.**LATE EDIT** - I’m gonna
have to use my disclaimer and back off of this prediction. The media sharks are
circling Maryland HC Randy Edsall with reports that Edsall will most definitely
be fired at the end of the season if not as early as after this game. Whether
it’s true or not, this kind of public news can affect a team’s performance. Of
course I knew Maryland was struggling when I handicapped this game last Sunday,
so the Maryland folks probably weren’t too happy with Edsall. But once the
media gets involved – which occurred during the week – it can have an effect
that needs to be considered when handicapping. This game will not count.

1

2

3

Final

PURDUE

0

7

14

24

MINNESOTA

7

10

13

19

This is a good matchup. Even
before the season began, when I thought Minnesota would be much better than
they’ve shown so far, I figured Purdue to win this one. Just had a hunch.
Purdue’s defense missed a lot of tackles in the first half of last week’s close
loss at Michigan St. But they shored things up in the second half and the
offense is coming around as QB David Blough gains confidence. But Purdue’s
improvement is a “baby-step” kind of thing as they seem to take maybe one and a
half steps forward, then one step back. So a Purdue victory is far from a slam
dunk in this game. A good part of why I like the Boilermakers here is that
Minnesota has been struggling lately. QB Mitch Leidner has been throwing poorly
and the running game is suffering as a result. I think HC Jerry Kill has too
much invested in Leidner to give him the hook. But if he’s considering it,
Purdue would be the easiest opponent he could find to give it a shot against.
And a new QB can be shaky during his first minutes of playing time. I like
Purdue in a game that will be close throughout.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Minnesota by 3, so there is a good chance that this prediction
will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

PENN ST

7

10

17

17

INDIANA

7

14

21

24

I handicapped this one
knowing that Indiana QB Nate Sudfeld is banged up, and may not even play at
all. I’m still going with Indiana. Penn St. wasn’t on a TV channel I have
access to last Saturday, so I didn’t get to see their closer than expected
victory over Army. But the last time I saw the Nittany Lions play, I liked that
they finally adjusted their horrific offensive scheme somewhat and was moving
QB Christian Hackenberg around in the pocket. And instead of relying solely on
Hackenberg, they were starting to put together a decent running game. But a mere
twenty points and a six point win over Army makes me think the offense still
hasn’t progressed very far. Indiana has a good offense, although not as good
without Sudfeld, and while the defense is usually one of the nation’s worst,
they aren’t quite as terrible as usual this season. And last week’s near upset
over the top ranked team in the nation has this team believing in itself. I’ve
been cashing in on Penn St.’s lame offense for over a year now. I’m gonna run
the same play until it gets stopped. Penn St. loses at home.

As of the date of this post,
there is no line as the oddsmakers wait for an injury status on Sudfeld.

1

2

3

Final

IOWA

7

14

21

28

ILLINOIS

0

0

7

14

I like Iowa at Kinnick
Stadium here. Tuff place for Illinois to try to steal a win. And Iowa’s defense
might be better than any defense Illinois has faced so far. The Hawkeyes are
coming off a big win at Wisconsin and could possibly have a let down here. They
also have a history in recent years of turning in head scratching losses. No
one can see the head scratchers coming, and if the Hawkeyes do let down, I
don’t think it will be so dramatic that that they lose to Illinois. Illinois is
on the rise, but I don’t think they’ve reached a level where they can win this
game. QB Wes Lunt has a good arm, but I’m not completely sold on him and expect
two interceptions from Lunt against a good Iowa defense. I do think Illinois
has risen to the level where they put up a good enough fight to keep this one
competitive throughout most of the game, though.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Iowa by 10.5, so it is unlikely that this prediction will
qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

MICHIGAN

3

9

16

16

N'RTHW'STERN

0

7

7

13

Great matchup here. Both
teams are playing above most everyone’s expectations, although I did expect
good things from Michigan this season. Northwestern is surprising me, though.
Both teams feature great defense. Michigan’s offense has been a little better
so far, but not by much. Northwestern has a freshman starting at QB and he’s
been improving with each game. Michigan has a veteran starting at QB who’s been
playing average at best. I look for only two touchdowns combined in this game
and a bunch of field goals. I give the edge to Michigan at home, but a
Northwestern victory wouldn’t surprise me.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Michigan by 8, so there is a small chance that this prediction
will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

RUTGERS

0

3

10

10

MICHIGAN ST

14

24

31

38

I’m going with the notion
that Rutgers isn’t very good to begin with, and that the off the field turmoil
is still having an effect, although maybe not as profound as a few weeks ago.
Michigan St. has been rather ho-hum lately, methodically jumping out to an
early lead and then coasting the rest of the way to victory. I wouldn’t be
surprised if they bring the same formula, I just think Rutgers will be so bad
that the Spartans won’t be able to help but win this one by four touchdowns.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Michigan St. by 14, so this prediction will qualify as a play.

1

2

3

Final

NOTRE DAME

7

14

28

35

NAVY

7

24

27

27

Notre Dame is coming off a
tuff loss at Clemson last Saturday so a letdown is very likely. And Navy’s
option always gives Notre Dame fits. The Irish did, however, handle the option
package that Georgia Tech presented a few weeks ago. But I think Navy’s option
game is better than Ga Tech’s due in no small part to Navy QB Keenan Reynolds.
Reynolds has a lot of experience as the Navy QB and could be considered among
the best to ever play for the Midshipmen. And he’s also not a bad passer, at
least by an option team’s standards. But Notre Dame has more size and overall
talent so I like the Irish to sweat out a closer than most would expect
victory.

As of the date of this post,
the line sits at Notre Dame by 14.5, so it is very possible that this prediction
will qualify as a play.

ATS

FTC
DOLLARS

In this section I track the
results of my Crystal Ball selections that qualify as “plays” ATS (any
prediction that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve
also included the results of some unsuspecting prognosticators (conference
games only) that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC”
dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section, please refer
to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.

ATSPLAY STANDINGS

LAST SATURDAY

TOTAL

FTC $

W

L

T

W

L

T

BRENT YARINA (btn)

2

0

0

2

0

0

$100

SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)

1

0

0

1

0

0

$50

FROM THE COUCH

2

2

0

2

2

0

-$10

TOM DEINHART (btn)

0

1

0

0

1

0

-$55

SEASON STATS

SPREAD RECORD

W

L

STRAIGHT UP

W

L

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

4

2

BRENT YARINA (btn)

5

1

FROM THE COUCH

3

3

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

5

1

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

3

3

FROM THE COUCH

4

1

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

2

3

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

4

2

WITHIN 7

W

L

CLOSEST

W

L

FROM THE COUCH

2

4

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

4

2

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

2

4

FROM THE COUCH

3

3

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

1

5

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

3

3

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

1

5

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

2

3

SPREAD RECORD -Simply
displays the ATS record.

STRAIGHT UP-
Theoutright winner, disregarding
the spread.

WITHIN 7-This
category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points
of the final score. Why does this matter? Because one can never lose in the
play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35 percent is about average
in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.

CLOSEST -
It’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not be as accurate as
the oddsmakers. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread is 6, and Michigan
wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record category. I get a loss in the
closest category because the spread (7-6=1)
was closer than my prediction (12-7=5).

Any games that go into
overtime will be considered a tie when calculating the “closest” and “within 7”
category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.

NOTRE DAME

I predict Notre Dame games
along with the Big Ten conference games. My Notre Dame predictions aren’t
included in the above standings and statistics because my competition doesn’t
predict Notre Dame games. So I’ve separately listed the stats for my Notre Dame
game predictions below.