State of the states: The final countdown
By: Politico Partners
September 29, 2007 08:32 AM EDT

Sunday's deadline for third-quarter fundraising reports was the dominating theme in the key early states this week. In the frantic final countown, candidates are either raising money or raising questions about why they aren't raising money.

That was the case for John Edwards, whose presence in New Hampshire this week — usually not a top locale for bringing in cash — prompted questions about whether he's resigned to a lackluster fundraising report for this quarter.

Edwards also got a grilling in Iowa over his ties to sub-prime mortgage lenders that have been linked to 107 home foreclosures in the state.

In South Carolina, Barack Obama may be praying for another strong fundraising showing Sunday when he visits church services in Columbia, including one congregation where he's likely to be one of the few African-Americans — and Democrats.

In Nevada, finally, candidates like Rudy Giuliani show up to raise money, but don't stick around to actually campaign. Will the GOP caucus turn out to be a bust? Read on.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had to answer some tough questions this week about his relationship with sub-prime mortgage lenders that foreclosed upon 107 Iowa homeowners while he was a consultant for the equity company.

Companies owned by Fortress Investment Group foreclosed upon the homeowners while Edwards was a consultant, court records show. The company paid Edwards $479,500 for 14 months of work, beginning in October 2005.

Fortress or its subsidiaries has foreclosed on homes in other states, including some in New Orleans. The link between Edwards and the company in the leadoff presidential nominating state is important because it could influence voters. Despite Edwards’ anti-poverty message, some Iowans remain irritated about news reports in March about him building a $5 million home in North Carolina and, in April, his $400 haircut.

Edwards told The Des Moines Register this week that the focus of his public work in the past two years outweighs any questions about his sincerity. During that time, he started a university policy institute in North Carolina to study poverty, conducted humanitarian work overseas and helped organize unions.

"If you look at the context of everything I've done since the last election, it's absolutely clear where my heart is and what I care about," Edwards said.

Fortress owned Green Tree Servicing and acquired a second sub-prime lender, Nationstar Mortgage , six months before Edwards quite Fortress to run for president. He divested his personal holdings in Nationstar in May after learning of the first foreclosures in New Orleans.

In August, he removed the rest of the roughly $16 million he had invested in Fortress holdings. Edwards also used $100,000 of his own money to begin a charity for New Orleans homeowners after learning that 34 of them faced foreclosure from his former employer's companies.

In other Iowa news this week, a top staffer for Sen. John McCain predicted that Iowa will “punish” the front-runner and potentially return support to the Arizonan, whose stripped-down campaign is looking for a spark.

“Iowa always tends to punish the front-runner right down at the end of the campaign,” said Rick Davis, McCain’s national campaign manager. “So we want to hang around and be a very viable campaign in Iowa long enough for everyone to take that second look. That is what we like about Iowa.”

Davis pointed to Democrat John Kerry’s comeback in 2004 when he won the Iowa caucuses after trailing other candidates for much of the summer and fall of 2003. In addition, the Republican ticket this year hasn’t solidified as much as the Democratic race, Davis said. He pointed to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released this month that shows roughly 22 percent of Republicans haven’t settled on a candidate.

McCain, who was once the national Republican presidential front-runner, dropped in the polls earlier this year after his fundraising efforts lagged and he was forced to cut staff. Recent Iowa polls generally show his support is in single digits, down from the roughly 25 percent rankings he had four months ago.
His campaign points out that several national polls recently ranked McCain third with about 15 percent of Republican support.

Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines attorney who was Iowa chairman of Kerry’s 2004 bid for the presidency, said there are vast differences between the campaigns, the biggest being organization. He doesn’t believe McCain has “even the third-best organization.”

“What most people don’t understand in 2004 was that we always had the best organization and that we never lost that edge,” Crawford said of Kerry’s 2004 Iowa campaign.

Another candidate who says his current standing in Iowa polls is misleading is Sen. Barack Obama. Most polls in Iowa show the Illinois Democrat in third place but his campaign staff says a “hidden vote” can push him ahead.

Generally, Obama’s share of the vote ranks — as it has for the past eight months — in the high teens or lower 20s, behind that of fellow Democrats Edwards and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). Clinton’s support has increased, edging Edwards into second in recent months.

In the past week, Obama’s campaign staff responded to media reports about the stagnant numbers, saying that polls under represent young voters, which is a key segment of the state’s population that the campaign is courting.

“So all of these state and national surveys have and will continue to under represent Barack’s core support — in effect, his hidden vote in each of these pivotal early states,” David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager wrote in a memo to supporters.

Such tactics didn’t work well for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who also aggressively campaigned for the young vote in 2003 but stumbled in the Iowa caucuses and fell from an expected first-place finish to third in January of 2004. Some of Obama’s supporters say the difference is he’s more organized and continues to go after all voters.

“Getting out the youth vote is icing on the cake, but that doesn’t mean the Obama campaign has stopped baking,” said Gordon Fischer, a former Iowa Democratic Party chairman who within the past week announced his support for Obama.

Jason Clayworth is a political reporter for The Des Moines Register. The Register and Politico.com are sharing content for the 2008 presidential campaign.

Rudy Giuliani was in Las Vegas this week, but unless supporters were willing to fork over $250 or $2,300 for dinner and a photo, they weren’t going to see him. It was a touchdown for cash only.

And although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has invested resources in Nevada in the form of a state director, a local consultant and a recent visit, he literally flew over the state this week on his way from Utah to California.

The decision by the GOP field to generally avoid campaigning or traveling beyond the traditional Republican money-corridor — McCarran Airport to the Venetian and back — has been a blow to state Republicans. The party hoped that moving their caucus to Jan. 19, making it one of the earliest in the nation, would garner attention from the candidates and the national media pack following them.

State Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden said this summer that she expected activity to pick up after the Iowa Straw Poll, which was in mid-August. Aside from Romney, none of the other top-tier candidates have campaigned here, and none have hired staff.

“I think we forget there is a Republican caucus,” said Jennifer Duffy, who is analyzing the presidential race for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Republican Party officials disagree with this assessment and say they are progressing on schedule. But it’s clear that with about 15 weeks to go before votes are cast, the Republican and Democratic caucuses have diverged, with GOP candidates, save Romney, seeming to have written off the state as unimportant. Democrats, meanwhile, have invested heavily in talent, money and time.

Republicans have been hindered by a late start, but more important is the encroachment of South Carolina Republicans, who are having their own primary on the same day, January 19.

South Carolina appears to be the proving ground of every top-tier Republican. Each has a different strategy: Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain need to win early; Giuliani needs to survive January; and actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson needs to win the South. In other words, the strategy of each entails doing well in South Carolina.

With all eyes on South Carolina, Nevada Republicans will be largely ignored, said Chuck Todd, political director of NBC News.

Nevada Democrats, meanwhile, have January 19 all to themselves. Even if the calendar changes, as it likely will, the state party has important allies in Washington who want to ensure a western, labor-rich, ethnically diverse state like Nevada has at least some role in the nomination process.

Although national political observers are paying Nevada less attention than the other three early states, as well as Michigan and Florida, the difference in the fortunes of the Democratic and Republican caucuses matters greatly in Nevada. The caucus has been a boon for local Democrats and could be determinative in November 2008.

State Democrats, who have long viewed the caucus as an opportunity to develop political talent and generate excitement among its grass roots, think the process has gone exactly as planned and is an important step as they try to deliver the state to the Democratic presidential nominee for the first time since 1996.

Local Republicans also hope the new caucus can help build momentum. Zach Moyle, the executive director of the state Republican Party, said he and caucus director Hans Gullickson, who brings with him caucus experience from Iowa, have traveled to every county, educating local officials and voters on the caucus.

Moyle said Republicans will hire two field workers soon, as well; Moyle and Gullickson have been doing all the work so far. By contrast, the Democrats have 20 full-time caucus workers. That effort is bolstered by the candidates, most of whom have significant paid staff and volunteer operations.

Moyle downplayed the impact of the South Carolina Republican primary on Nevada’s contest, saying the Silver State offers candidates a chance to distinguish themselves in a static field.

“The race is all shaped out in the three other states,” he said. “How much mileage are you going to get that you haven’t already gotten? Nevada is a ripe state. We’re wide open.”

Republicans are trying to draw candidates to a central committee meeting in October and two candidate forums in early December.

Despite the dearth of presidential visits, the party has seen an uptick in activism and interest that will payoff in the general election, Moyle said.

“A lot of people are getting excited about January before they are looking at other things,” he said. “Everything we build up is for November. The end goal has always been 100 percent November.”

Still, the enthusiasm surrounding the Democratic caucus has already had tangible results. Democrats surpassed Republicans in active voter registration in April, and their numbers continue to rise.

With many analysts saying the Intermountain West could determine the election, the difference could be significant.

J. Patrick Coolican and Michael J. Mishak are political reporters for the Las Vegas Sun. The Sun and Politico.com are sharing content for the 2008 presidential election.

But Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama is putting a new twist on that trend this weekend.

The Illinois senator will visit two Columbia-area churches on Sunday: Brookland Baptist Church in West Columbia and First Baptist Church in downtown Columbia.

The first choice is not surprising. Brookland Baptist is one of the largest predominantly black congregations in the state. And with roughly half of all 2008 Democratic primary voters expected to be African-American, it makes sense for Democrats to visit Brookland Baptist.

In fact, Obama rival John Edwards, the South Carolina native and former U.S. senator from North Carolina, packed Brookland Baptist’s community center in December as part of his national announcement tour.

But it’s Obama’s second stop of the day that is most interesting. First Baptist is one of the largest predominantly white congregations in the state and is typically one of its most conservative.

Obama, the son of a black African father and white American mother, will likely stand out at First Baptist for both being a Democrat and for being black.

Obama will only attend services at the churches, not speak. But the impact is the same: It says, “I’m serious about faith and I have strong sense of values.”

While it’s far from certain that Obama’s appearance at First Baptist will win him any votes from among the evangelical set, it’s the image, more than the message, that matters.

And in the South Carolina Democratic primary, that’s important.

A recent poll of South Carolina African-Americans by Winthrop University and ETV, South Carolina’s public television network, found that two-thirds of S.C. blacks said “being religious contributes to your identity” a great deal. That’s more than the 63.7 percent who said being black contributes to one's identity a great deal.

For a candidate like Obama, who is working hard to establish faith as a positive voting protocol, trips like this have little downside.

In other news, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden will return to South Carolina next week after camping out in Iowa for most of the summer.

South Carolinians haven’t seen the affable Democratic presidential candidate since the July debate at The Citadel in Charleston. And his decision to schedule the trip for the first day of the fourth quarter would seem to put to rest speculation that Biden would be forced to abandon his campaign at the end of the third quarter of fundraising.

Biden is coming off a great week. He picked up more endorsements in Iowa, saw his plan for partitioning Iraq overwhelmingly approved by the Senate and has received favorable press for both.

But Biden’s struggle has been to raise enough money to be taken seriously and to find a way to transfer almost universal good will into poll numbers.

On Monday in Columbia, he’ll work on both problems. He’s scheduled to speak to a meet-and-greet in Rock Hill, a York County city just over the state line from Charlotte, and to hold a news conference at the State House in Columbia. The campaign would not say what the news conference was about.

But Biden will also be feted at a fundraiser Monday night at the home of top Democratic moneyman Cam Lewis. When former President Bill Clinton spoke to the South Carolina National Association for the Advancement of Colored People in May, he stayed at Lewis’ gated-community home.

And, following a meeting with The State newspaper’s editorial board, Biden is also tentatively scheduled to hold a book signing at one of Columbia’s last remaining independent book stores.

Biden has said he truly believes good things are starting to happen for him in Iowa. If so, days like Monday will be important to keep him in the minds of South Carolina Democrats.

Finally, file this one in the weird-but-true category. What do Iraq, Syria, South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada all have in common? According to a Florida Senate Democrat, they are all “terrorist rogue states”

The Palm Beach Post reported this week that Florida state Sen. Steve Geller called the four early voting states “terrorist rogue states" for getting the presidential candidates to pledge not to campaign in the Sunshine State because Florida has violated DNC rules on the primary voting calendar.

Geller’s comments had Democrats in South Carolina perplexed.

“Jealousy is a hard thing to understand,” state Democratic Party executive director Joe Werner said. “It's unfortunate this senator has taken this approach. His anger should be directed towards the Florida Democratic Party.”

Every Democratic presidential candidate had to be in Hanover, N.H., on Wednesday night for a nationally televised debate on MSNBC — and yet only one took the time to stay in New Hampshire more than 24 hours afterward to campaign in the first primary state.

With only four days left before quarterly financial reports were due, only former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stayed in New Hampshire.

Edwards’ decision to campaign in New Hampshire Thursday and Friday, which had been announced last week, stood out. Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd was the only other Democratic candidate to have scheduled multiple campaign events in the state this past week, and all of his stops were on the day of the debate. (Illinois Sen. Barack Obama spent all day Wednesday in the state, but held only one event, a large rally in the liberal town of Peterborough.)

Edwards’ decision to spend two of the last four days before the filing deadline for quarterly fundraising reports campaigning in sparsely populated northern New Hampshire became clearer on Thursday when he announced that he would accept public campaign funds.

Unable to keep up with Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in fundraising, Edwards is being forced to concentrate a lot more on retail politicking in Iowa and New Hampshire. Most analysts say his acceptance of public campaign funds means he will be unable to compete after January, so he has to focus all of his energy on winning those two early states.

Edwards spent Thursday and Friday on an “Economic Fairness for the North Country” tour of several towns and cities in rural New Hampshire (including two in southern New Hampshire). He stumped with a bluegrass band and North Carolina native and former Georgia congressman Ben Jones, who played Cooter on “The Dukes of Hazzard.”

Edwards remains in third place in the polls in New Hampshire. In the WMUR/UNH poll released on Tuesday, Edwards was favored by 12 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, Obama by 20 percent and Clinton by 43 percent. UNH Survey Center Director Andy Smith said Edwards has stopped his slide in the state but has not made up the ground he’s lost since earlier in the year.

Obama, Smith and UNH political science professor Dante Scala say, is now a lot closer to the rest of the Democratic pack than to Clinton in New Hampshire.

The poll shows Clinton leading Obama among all subgroups, including self-described liberals (43-23) and voters who “strongly oppose the war” (44-17). John DiStaso of the New Hampshire Union Leader reported that geographically, Obama ties Clinton in the Connecticut Valley, but is behind everywhere else. In the North Country, where Edwards spent Thursday and Friday, Obama is in third place, behind Clinton and Edwards.

After Wednesday night’s debate, in which Edwards aggressively went after Clinton, but Obama did not, Scala said that Obama has to start giving voters stronger reasons to choose him over Clinton. Democratic voters find Obama likeable, but so far they say they prefer Clinton as their presidential nominee. In the WMUR/UNH poll, 54 percent said Clinton was the most electable; only 13 percent said Obama was.

The WMUR/UNH poll found an opposite trend on the Republican side. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, long the leader in New Hampshire, is now statistically tied with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani. The poll found Romney supported by 23 percent of likely Republican voters, Giuliani by 22 percent, Sen. John McCain by 17 percent and former Sen. Fred Thompson by 12 percent.

McCain gained five points since the last WMUR/UNH poll, and Thompson “has not yet caught on in New Hampshire,” Smith said. McCain announced his first New Hampshire ad buy this past week. He’s going on the air with two television ads and one radio ad. Romney, who had advertised heavily this summer, does not appear to have turned that initial interest into lasting support.

In addition to not catching on, Thompson’s New Hampshire campaign has been beset by infighting dating back to the summer, before it was even a campaign. Former state Rep. Dan Hughes, who was the voice of the Thompson organization over the summer and was initially lined up to be the state campaign chairman, has been ousted. He disputes that he ever was the campaign chairman, and now says he will help out on a volunteer basis, DiStaso reported on Thursday.

Some in the Thompson organization were dissatisfied with Hughes’ rather loose lips and his organizational work. Bill Cahill, a former member of New Hampshire’s Executive Council, has been a Thompson advisor all along and is expected to play a more active role in the campaign with Hughes gone.

Andrew Cline is editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader. The Union Leader and Politico.com are sharing content for the 2008 presidential campaign.