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See Ya! Local Millennials Are Abandoning Toronto and Vancouver

Local Millennials have had enough of Toronto and Vancouver, and are starting to leave. Statistics Canada’s latest intraprovincial migration numbers show the number of people leaving the cities for different parts of the province, is accelerating. The trend is showing huge growth in the crucial Millennial demographic. A demographic that will be entering their prime earning, and home buying years soon. That’s no bueno.

Net Intraprovincial Migration

Net intraprovincial migration is the total change of people that left the city, for another part of the province. That is, if 1 person from rural Ontario moves to Toronto, and 0 people leave Toronto, the net intraprovincial migration is 1. If 1 person moves to Ontario, and 3 people from Toronto move to Hamilton, the net intraprovincial migration is -2. Ideally a region attracts more people from other parts of the province than they lose. This number is different from immigration, but is just as important.

Convincing people to immigrate to a city is good, but retaining people is even better. Afterall, cities are built to serve people, not serve as an advertisement for immigration that may be disappointing people once they arrive. A drastic change in these numbers could indicate an underlying problem that isn’t being reflected in current government stats.

Toronto Loses Over 142,000 People To Other Parts of Ontario

Toronto is seeing the net intraprovincial migration numbers plummet, and that’s bad. From 2012 to 2017, the net intraprovincial migration was -142,465, a 77.53% larger loss than the period before. This means over 142,000 more people left Toronto for other parts of the province, than Toronto attracted. This pace is a lot higher than the pace of population growth.

Toronto Net Intraprovincial Migration

More people are leaving Toronto for other (cheaper) parts of Ontario.

Source: Statistics Canada, Better Dwelling.

Breaking that down by age brackets, the trend is a little worse than you may anticipate. The 20 to 34 year old age bracket (Millennials) saw a net decline 306.28% larger than the period before. To contrast, the 35 to 49 year age bracket saw a net decline 48.52% larger than the period before. Toronto is losing young people at a very rapid pace, to other parts of the province.

Lower Mainland (Including Vancouver) Loses Over 18,000 People To Other Parts of BC

Lower Mainland, the population dense part of the British Columbia, is doing better than Toronto, but still not great. From 2012 to 2017 the region saw a net migration of -18,670 people, a decrease that was 180% larger than the period before. The number seems relatively small, but it’s a province with a population smaller than Greater Toronto. The net loss to other regions represents a huge increase.

Lower Mainland Net Intraprovincial Migration

More people are leaving Lower Mainland for other (cheaper) parts of British Columbia.

Source: Statistics Canada, Better Dwelling.

Two interesting demographics are changing in the province. The largest loss was in seniors, that are likely cashing in and seeking greener pastures. The 65+ demographic showed a net migration of -2,575, a whopping 344.73% more people compared to the period before. The 20 to 34 demographic saw net intraprovincial migration reach -139, a 103.64% decrease from the period before. This demographic was previously the only demographic not in decline across the region.

The real irony here is these two regions spend huge amounts of cash to attract Millennial immigrants. At this point, Millennials should be putting down roots, and entering their prime earning years. Retaining millennials is typically a win for both the local economy, as well as birth rates in the region (if they have kids). Maybe someone should teach local politicians about the concept of retention?

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68 Comments

The only people it’s good for is the tax base. We’re trying to cram people in, and haven’t been worried about the losses. The government is only interested in a broadline measurement of GDP, but doesn’t consider social factors – such as it’s getting worse to live in these cities as a young person.

They say stuff like look, we brought Amazon and AirBnB. But never go: your housing is unaffordable, you won’t be able to have kids unless you move to the suburbs, buy a home unless you have parental assistance, or find a job that pays a living wage.

It’s wrong for them to say it’s bad. If you’re a government, it’s great! You can focus on getting more immigrants into the country, which improves the tax base. Remember, you’re not people to most governments, you’re a revenue generator. The more of you there are, the better they do.

That’s why when they show you the numbers on GDP growth, go “look, it’s amazing!” Young people go “oh, I guess it’s just me…,” then have to relocate.

Morneau demonstrated this when he set the target to 100 million people, and to ramp up immigration. Why? No explanation given. Just a revenue guy, doing revenue stuff.

What the fuck are you driveling on about Igor Craptoski? Or is it Mr.Craptoski? Partisan garbage that make barely any sense. 100 million immigration target? How is domestic migration increasing the tax base? Did you even read the article or just huff some more solvents an then let your cat take over? Sweet lord this blog needs some policing.

Weather is nice, time to let loose… this is RE blog not lifestyle. Why is it bad? Because part of the ongoing ‘RE is the next Jesus’ narrative is that there is soooo much migration to Toronto/Van that demand is literally going up each year. Can’t stop won’t stop; a half blind monkey with a 20% down can make money (assuming his bananas cover the carrying costs)…it’s bad because this is yet ANOTHER factor bubbling to the top that is going to dick over everyone who purchased in the FOMO epicenters. This is good for RE bears sure but personally, I don’t like the idea of an implosion as we all have family and friends…BD4L

Even if you have loaded up on a short position (I have not), do not think this will be good for any person who lives in this country, bears or bulls. I’m trying to get out of the way as best as possible, try to give friends and family the other side of the story as best I can. Most default back to the RE mumbo jumbo and ignore me. In either case all tax payers will eventually be on the hook for this recklessness, and any of us with savings will get a huge haircut when our dollar devalues. The “rich” speculators will get slaughtered, but many of them will eventually recover. Even those that default will have their credit scores back by the time the market starts to recover. This is going to be hardest on the poor, who have no assets today, will lose jobs, and will not be in the financial position to take advantage when the market finally starts to go back up. Bad for boomers close to retirement who have a false sense of security because of the equity in their homes. It will also be terrible for millennials that get trapped in condos delaying family formation until prices recover.

Well said, I feel bad as well for ordinary families who will just buy/upgrade their properties at the wrong time and will finance all speculators gains (+interest for the banks) for the next 25 years of their lives.

The only place where I’m not quite agree with you is that we are loosing money because of currency devaluation. We are only loosing opportunity to earn extra money on USD/CAD difference but local purchasing power of $CAD depends on inflation, not devaluation.

P.S. to all readers, please always remember that those views about RE market are our personal opinions which may be wrong. Always make your own decisions based on all information you have.

We all have choices Gus… no one’s stopping you from cashing in, converting to another currency and moving to much nicer places in the world.

We did, it was a big move but with proper planning it was the best move we’ve made. We told everyone we knew to do the same thing and like you said they just threw the typical RE lines back at us.

They thought we were crazy and stupid to make this move. Now, they regret they didn’t sell when we did and didn’t move. And next year, they’ll probably regret not having sold now. You can’t become entrenched in a losing venture. If a house is an investment, it should be treated as such.

BTW, we converted the first tranche of our money at the end of 2016 at an average of 0.67 CDN to the Euro and just converted the second and final tranche at an average of 0.635 more than a 5% hit in just over a year! but at least we didn’t take a 20% hit on our home + the 5% hit on the currency.

Loads of immigrants are coming into the city, we’re just losing the ones that grow up here. Calling a population decline once the recession hits. When there’s not enough opportunity for locals, and not enough incentive for immigrants, it’s going to turn into a shit show.

We are already suffering a population decline which is why the government is so adamant of attracting immigrants. Since 2009 there has been a “baby bust”, primarily due to cost of raising a child. This will have an enormous impact on the future of this country not to mention RE

Actually, if you read the quora link about what happened in 1989, in Toronto. You can see the same thing happening today. Most immigrants come over as families, and prefer to buy multi bedroom homes (3-5 bedrooms), where they can house their immediate family: parents, kids, grandparents, etc. They want a place they can raise a family and maintain family connections.

The idea of single or couple only immigrants moving to Toronto to buy a condo downtown with sacks of cash is really kinda rare.

“Despite the growth in population and the need for housing, there were actually too many condos being built. Condos are great for some people, but if, for example, you have a family of four, they won’t suit you. One of the reasons big houses sold so well is that a lot of immigrant families bought a five bedroom and housed the father, mother, two grandparents and five kids there. “

That’s your liquidity leaving boomers. If cities had options, I would short Toronto, and go long on Kitchener. Although Kitchener’s real estate is pricing a good 10 to 20 years out, so that’s going to be an awkward correction.

Unfortunately Zolo doesn’t have stats on Kitchener but my feeling is that inventory is growing there too. I don’t think there is any safe place around GTA so you have to move way further for your long positions to places witch are not overvalued.

Sorry, this is off topic but I’m always a day late on commenting. A couple weeks back someone (Grizz?), mentioned a fund (I think it was a fund), that’s bearish on Canadian housing. I thought to look into it as a hedge for my home. Does anyone have the info? Thanks!

During the US housing build up in the 2000’s, a new financial derivative was extended called a “Credit Default Swap” on Mortgage Backed Securities and Collateralized Debt Obligations. The swap was merely an agreement that stipulated if a MBS or CDO defaulted, the issuer of the CDS would make the buyer whole on their losses. CDS originated in the late 1990’s on corporate securities . After the 2008 housing crisis, a few companies like AIG’s Financial Products unit in London England was on the hook for something like $180 billion of CDS agreements. There were other CDS sellars, investment banks, like Morgan Stanley who were on hook for billions of default swaps. On top of that, many investment banks like Bear Sterns and Lehman brothers held a lot of Mortgage Backed Securities in “inventory”, and were unable to unload them

Since then, the idea of shorting housing markets like Toronto and Vancouver, has understandably gotten harder. But you have to look at it at various angles. Consider researching all the parts of real estate supply chain, and shorting the companies most exposed. The supply chain being from the developers, home buyers, mortgage originators, and mortgage insurers, to mortgage backed securities creators/sellers, and MBS holders, as well as those who insure those securities.

If you look at the balance sheets, and figure out who is the most exposed to a 20% to 50% downturn in prices by late 2019, then you can short the companies and/or securities, as well as the Canadian market index in housing, the Canadian general market index, and currency. (As the government may have to debase the currency a few percentage points, when the recession hits).

RM, I researched it. While it may be attractive for “beginners” you need to know restrictions: – Money are being locked up for at least 1 year (or there will be 7% penalty on withdrawal) – You need to be an accredited investor (check their docs for exact name) with huge amount of cash or very high income. There is a work around if you use your own fund manager who will buy it for you. – They will eat 20% of all profits they will make for you (only if there will be a profit) – They will eat extra 2.25% of your total investment value as a management fee (in any case, doesn’t matter if you up or down) – You will pay taxes on all your gains

Do your math carefully to make sure it works for you, but overall it doesn’t sound like a bad idea.

That’s part of what’s pushing up prices in Ottawa now. Two houses right across from me were purchased by Torontonians. One buyer is an investor (who subsequently leased the place to another couple fleeing Toronto’s insane housing/rental markets) and the other one purchased by a family originally from Ethiopia who cashed out of Toronto and moved to Ottawa. If it’s happening on my little street, it’s happening on a lot of streets.

We’re exporting FOMO. Anyone who sold in or around toronto can pay a kings ransom for whatever shit hole is available in our national fapital which will lead to a bubble and a fall…what I think is hilarious is that Ottawa, while beautiful, is where money goes to die like QC. When our political power players don’t even want to live there it definitely says a lot about how much of a wank our political system and the importance of the city…politics is something you do for 10-15 years, get a sweet pension and then go consult. Unless you’re a senator then you’ll knock over an old woman to keep your job, if you can even call it a job v a paid vacation.

anyone who invests in ottawa is an idiot. anyone who lives in ottawa is a government serf. the only people i know who moved to ottawa were losers who couldn’t hack it in Toronto. AM is a renter and lives there so you know the place is for bums.

No. I’m the landlord that makes very good money on rent and equity increase. why do you rent? are you just broke or are you one of those fakers that rents and then invests the rest? you live paycheck to paycheck I assume. seems like you should move to Ottawa with all the other renter bums on this site.

I’m wondering why homeowners are asking intelligent questions here about financial future, hedging their RE exposure etc. but most landlords decide to spend their valuable time just to say something similar to: “I’m reach and you are a bunch of losers”

That creates a very interesting profile of an average RE investor. Thanks for you input Chester.

Shouldn`t you be on the phone begging alt lenders to refinance your sorry ass so you don`t have to declare bankruptcy just yet? I`m sure the GTA market will recover any time now. You just need to hang on a bit longer.

it is clockwork you post drivel everyday. same shite every day. you rent in ottawa. what the f do you know about Real E? you have no skin in the game. another sideshow blowhard observer. i don’t have time to trudge through the mosquitoes and white trash to get up to ottawa to collect your rent money.

No, Professor of Real Estate was a different guy. He was literate for one thing. His lies and his cover story were so much more detailed and intricate. After another commenter exposed him as a liar and a fraud (his “research chair” didn’t exist, and no one in his alleged field of cell biology had never been nominated for Order of Ontario) he put his tail between his legs and never came back. .

Chester/Kethcup Chips has no such shame about him. He just keeps returning, his angry outbursts becoming more erratic and bizarre by the day. On one hand, he’s supposedly making big money in real estate. On the other, he’s raging against “loser renters” (allegedly the very people who pay his mortgages). We witnessed Mmr have a similar meltdown a couple days ago. Told me to go jerk off and then f*ck my cousin. I can’t do both at once.

If these guys were making so much money, why are they so unhappy? Why are they getting angrier and more irrational by the day? I’m guessing it’s financial stress, compounded by sexual frustration since they can no longer afford prostitutes.

Fair observation. Sure it is getting stressful for them, can just imagine what they go through each and everyday. Wake up, read a great quote from a RE agent about how everything is going to be OK, then rush to BD to see if everyone here finally agrees that this time is different…….. Nope.

I’m not sure what you mean by “fakers that rents and then invests the rest”? But the statement really sounds idiotic unless I’m reading it wrong.

I mean I put everything I had (outside of my condo) into a basket of tech stocks and the SPY in 2008. I later sold my condo in 2012, and subsequently moved and started renting at half the cost, allowing me to put even more money into my basket, SPY, and also start buying into medical MJ stocks starting the day Trudeau won.

It sounds like you’re trying to call me stupid for doing this? I’m not sure how that works when the S&P500 (SPY ETF) is up over 400%, tech stock basket over 1800%, and medical MJ over 3000% before I pared it back and plowed half into SPY.

Eventually once I have children I’ll buy a place again, but it’s for stability, not investment. I kick myself every day for not ditching my condo earlier and driving every penny into SPY/tech sooner than I did.

So if someone thinks they’re a genius for having 100-120% of unrealized gains from real estate over the last 10 years, I’m really sorry you missed the bus, because this was the greatest bull market in the history of our exchanges.

No, you’re not reading it wrong. He’s every bit the idiot he appears to be. Allegedly making money hand over fist, sticking it to his “loser renters” who somehow manage to find the money to pay him every month. Yet he shows up here every day – under a new screen name – to blast people who hold bearish sentiments towards RE.

Does that sound like a satisfied rich person to you? His comments ooze many things, but success is not one of them. If he’s making all that money, why does he come here to spew about rent control and “commies” and the foreign buyers tax and all the rest? Obviously he’s drowning in debt, his lenders are calling him daily, he’s angry, and he’s looking to blame someone.

Just another pathetic Toronto RE failure. He got in too late and went in with too much leverage. He watched people all around him make a killing, but he was late to the party and got his ass handed to him. It has reduced him to a sad, broken little man. Though I suspect he was there already.

While it clearly sounds like you did quite well and I’m very happy for you I believe you are underestimating RE investments as well. In some cases RE investment can be absolutely tax free Also you are forgetting about leverage which is a big part of RE gains. I can borrow 100k from my relative, buy 500k condo and sell it for 750k 2 years later, pay everything back and have some profit. With $0 I earned some profit which makes my ROI = infinity.

You can do exactly the same with stocks but almost every stock market investor knows that it’s a way to bankruptcy.

RE is falsely considered as 0% risk investment therefore some investors will learn this rule in a hard way.

I’m not a RE investor but I understand that nowadays ROI for RE investment can be easily be 400-600% because of leverage. That’s why so many people are into that.

I did some calculations yesterday regarding “Soft Landing” scenario. If we assume that Toronto is 30% overvalued it will take 18 years for prices to catch up and investors will lose 30% of their equity in the process (due to 2% inflation). That’s if we assume 2% income growth as fundamentals.

If we include other sources of persistent capital inflow and raise growth to 3% it still takes 12 years for prices to catch up and 22% of equity will be lost.

All investors must hold their properties for the whole duration of “soft landing” otherwise it they start releasing properties scenario will quickly turn into a “hard landing” one.

Any investors here willing to hold on to your investment for 12 years at 22% equity loss?

That’s why “soft landing” is just a myth and prices can either continue to go up or fall down but they can’t stay flat because investors will abandon that ship very quickly.

So here’s a question: Someone I know spends about 2k a month on rent. If he bought the place he’s living in, it would cost about 600k. He would be a cash buyer. Currently that cash makes about 3% but gets taxed at ~40%. Would he be better off buying, or continuing to rent?

Pretty much in the same boat. I’m gambling that I will be able to save a lot of money by buying later.

I’m assuming he is in a condo too. I love the lifestyle but I’m sceptical off the long term value of condos in general. Especially newer high rise. Seen a lot of pour work, and those glass walls will have to be replaced every 15 to 25 years. Will cost millions especially for buildings that are high up and do not have balconies. Other things break too

20 years time your fees will have doubled (including inflation) and there could be a brand new building across the street as a comparable.

We’re all nobodies, but at least some of us can profit off of others stupidity. Buy any 2016-2017 pre sale condos? Want the newest and the best for myself once completed and hoping to find one of those “Investors” to subsidize me a 1000 or more a month. Stupid socialists

Chester, why do you express such antipathy toward some members here? If they’re renters wishing on a pipe dream, then let them bask in their own foolishness as they’re left behind.

I own several properties in the City of Toronto (not the GTA) and have enjoyed the equity gains over the past 13 years, but I’m also trying to assess the health of the RE market going forward. I think it’s a bad time to buy pre-con condos, and I know that RE is cyclical and given a slew of metrics I do expect a dip in the RE market within the not so distant future. In fact, I hope it does because I want to invest in at least one more property and current valuations make investing even with large down payments an extraordinary gamble.

I have no interest in beating my chest and calling renters losers or comparing my net worth against anyone else. I live a great life, have made great choices, and feel grateful for what I’ve accomplished. I sincerely want the same for others – whether they’re renters, investors, or home owners.

Tommy, although I don’t agree with you, thank you for at least speaking respectfully and eloquently. There’s much more to be gained by having an open, civil dialogue.

I am an owner with no debt but I would never think of renters as some sort of sub-class citizen. Anyone who does hasn’t travelled much. Most real world class cities are occupied by renters, and they’re comfortable to do so. It’s just not a part of our culture here… yet.

Also, I think you’re mistaken about the idea of being “left behind”. If your narrative is true then we just experienced a moment in history that won’t be repeated and all future generations will be primarily renters. Does that make our grandchildren losers?

And for what it’s worth, the metrics right now are in favour of renters. That could change but right now it really does make more financial sense to rent.

Tommy, “If they’re renters wishing on a pipe dream, then let them bask in their own foolishness as they’re left behind.”

“I know that RE is cyclical and given a slew of metrics I do expect a dip in the RE market within the not so distant future.”

So if you expect market to dip what “foolishness” and “left behind” you are talking about? You are same bear as we are with only difference that you have equity exposed to the upcoming dip you are expecting.

Chester, why do you express such antipathy toward some members here? If they’re renters wishing on a pipe dream, then let them bask in their own foolishness as they’re left behind.

That comment puts you in the same idiot league as Chester. You bought some property and it went up for 13 years. Good for you. That doesn’t mean that anyone who refused to buy into the bubble was “basking in their own foolishness”. You benefited by the luck of timing. It could easily have gone against you. Be glad for your good fortune instead accusing others of foolishness, or your just another Chester. Not everyone wants to own GTA property – I don’t even live there. Is everyone who doesn’t own GTA property “foolish”? Give your head a shake.

And by the way, the time to sell would have been into the hot market of 2016-17. You’re still holding your cards after the bubble has started to burst. You don’t get to call anyone foolish. Price-rent metrics in toronto are second-worst in the country after Vancouver. The right thing to do would be to have sold in GTA and then bought in smaller markets where price-rent metrics are far better. That’s why I call bullshit on all the “successful landlords” who show up here. Anyone who fails to even consider price rent-metrics (basically your return on invested capital) just got lucky in the bubble, and has no business calling anyone foolish.

You’re all misreading what I wrote. I said if HE (Chester) believes renters are pipe dreamers, he is free to feel this way, but it’s inappropriate for him to call people losers for disagreeing with him. I do NOT believe renters are pipe dreamers. In fact, I agree that the market is too expensive. That should be abundantly clear from what I wrote.

What I wrote is very straight-forward. If someone thinks renters are fools dreaming of a RE crash, then they’re entitled to that belief, but that doesn’t give them license to repeatedly belittle renters. Nobody gains anything from such uncivil discourse so I don’t know what is motivating Chester’s seething hatred of people that choose to live a different lifestyle. Although I’m invested in real estate, and have done well with my portfolio, I’m bearish on the current market. Being a landlord does not blind me from reality. Whether the market sustains itself or crashes, I’ll be fine, but I prefer a crash as it would allow me to scoop up more real estate at a discount.

Renting vs Buying is usually a wash, it’s only during periods of inordinate real estate appreciation that it’s financially advantageous to own. From that perspective, for investors the future looks grim.

Nice find, Tommy. Luxury portion of RE market is slowing down significantly everywhere. Your example is a perfect example of why Toronto is not immune to that.

Because of interest rate increases, B-20, less foreign buyers all the action is now shifting to more affordable condo segment. Therefore if you don’t have buyers prices will go down until buyers return.

It’s interesting how we have both “Greed” in condo sector and “Fear” in luxury sector at the same time.

Overall I would recommend it to everyone because it covers RE and Stock markets as well. Grizz. if you follow me, ping me a message so I can send you more info regarding this topic directly going forward.