Archive for December 2010

I’ve only had time now to get back to Sunday’s RedC poll, with various family and work festivity related activities. I’ll do a quick run over of it here, and over the Xmas I’m re-vamping the spreadsheet, mainly to have it produce a template “constituency-by-constituency” report, which will mean I can produce the round-up profiles much quicker, and they’ll have more details to hand (e.g. 2007 result, 2011 candidates etc).

In keeping with the general speculation about how firm the figures for each party might be (notably LP but latterly SF) the latest RedC offering has tried to start measuring this further, and publishes a bit more data for us to ponder over.

In addition to asking for first preferences, the poll asked respondents how likely they were to give a vote (of any preference, apparently) to the various parties. “Definitely will” was the response of 9% for FF, 19% FG, 16% LP, 10% SF and 4% GP. Adding “Most likely” and “Probably will” swelled these figures to 27% (FF), 61% (FG), 59% (LP), 30% (SF), and 23% (GP). Of the “Definitely won’t” figures, FF top the poll with 60%, compared to SF (59%), GP (55%), FG (24%) and LP (22%).

These figures are obviously less helpful without the same question being asked re first preferences. Given LP are within the margin of error of FG in all these, but 11% behind them in first preferences, it suggests that they are doing much better on transfers, which would be expected, given Gilmore’s consistently high percentage as choice of Taoiseach (further borne out by RedC for Paddy Power in a story broken by Dave in p.ie here) at 45% compared to 24% Kenny and 11% Cowen, and the remaining vote is apparently more solid;

Labour has also seen a decline in their fortunes over the past month, with their share falling back to 23%. However, the support they are left with now does appear to be a lot more loyal. Our analysis in October suggested the Labour vote was perhaps the flakiest of all parties at that time; but having lost some of that “flaky” vote to other parties, those they are left with appear to be much more loyal. The party also has the lowest level of outright rejection among the electorate than any other party, and as such do still have an opportunity to win over more voters.

Perhaps surprisingly, given how well I believe Noonan has been doing, FG’s margin of error increase is despite, rather than because of perceptions about their economic competence. Again from the report;

The only results that Fine Gael will not be as happy with from this poll, is that the electorate are still not convinced on their ability to handle the economy. Just over 1 in 4 (26%) do have confidence in the party, and only just over half (51%) of their own supporters. A further concern is that more voters have confidence in Labour to handle the economy (29%), and only 1 in 10 of their supporters does not have confidence in them, with others unsure.

Of equal concern to them must be their inability to increase their vote in RedC polls outside the margin of error, regardless of how everyone else is losing support. They polled 35% in a RedC poll in November 2008, and in the series of more than 20 RedC polls since then, they have always been 30-35%, except for November ’09 when they hit 36%, and are currently at 34%. Over that period, FF have slid from 30% to 17%, without any net improvement for the main opposition party, and the current decline in the LP FPV rating appears to be all going to SF or ULA, with little likelihood of it ever going to FG. The “soft” LP vote appears, therefore, to be to it’s left, with little interest in movement to FG or FF among declared LP voters, even when they are going down in the polls.

RedC’s official report makes no mention of the regional breakdown, but one FG staff member posting on p.ie has made much of them being well ahead of LP in Dublin among the 300 respondents living there, while ignoring the corollary that a much larger sample of non-Dublin shows LP increasing their vote outside the capital! Given the small size of those samples, the fact that regional sub-samples aren’t necessarily representative of social class etc in the way that the national sample has to be, and the fact that the two sub-samples contradict each other, as does a poll conducted the same week by MRBI, I think no-one seriously believes that you can assume anything from this. Including that FG staffer.

On SF, the report states, somewhat amusingly, that “The party also has the most loyal support, with 61% claiming they will definitely vote for this party, whatever happens between now and the election.”. Given 55% say they definitely won’t even give them a preference, that appears to be a misstatement…

The figure they give in the tables a definitely giving them a vote is a more reasonable 10%, and so it appears that this figure was how many of their own first preference voters would definitely vote SF somewhere on the ballot paper (a somewhat different statistic!). However, the “definitely vote” figure includes the second preferences of other parties, and so the figure is more than a bit meaningless, unless there is further data that they’ve chosen not to release into the wild just yet.

FF see a small recovery from the 13% in the RedC/Sun to 17%, but it’s still not great reading for them. Cowen in particular will be depressed to see he is 4th choice for FF leader at 7%, behind Lenihan, Martin and Hanafin. I can see a lot of tough talking going on over the Christmas break, although there appears to be a move away from Lenihan among FF TDs, and I understand that Martin’s people want to wait until after the election.

In terms of the left (I include LP, SF, GP and 50% the OTH figure for this) the poll confirms a general trend in this direction that will no doubt annoy the proprietor of ‘Independent’ Newspapers in particular. LP were between 15-20% for all RedC polls from March ’09 to March ’10, but in April of this year their RedC/SBP rating suddenly started to catch up with MRBI. Since that poll, they have recorded 24-22-27-23-27-27-23, which for all the talk of peaks and troughs shows surprisingly little movement, with all seven scores within the margin of error of the 25% average.

However, if you take the total left vote in those seven polls it has been stable enough for the first four (Apr-Sept 2010) but now has had a surge (largely in the SF column, but only in part at the expense of LP) at 40 – 41.5 – 40 – 40.5 – 45 – 45 – 44. Now, SF may hold on to that newer vote (personally I suspect they’ll hold about half of it in a GE, putting them around 12% or so on the day), but if they don’t it would appear unlikely that it’ll go to FG, with LP and OTH being, in my view, the likeliest destinations, given the trends to date, and the obvious political distance between SF and FG. There is, however, a chance that some of it will return to FF where it was originally from (although that looks less likely by the month).

Anyway, that’s it, and this should be my last blog entry of the year (unless another poll comes out). To summarise the year in terms of RedC, there was no December ’09 poll, but one in January, which gave us figures of FF 27%, FG 34%, LP 17%, SF 8%, GP 5% and OTH 9%. We finish the year with FF down 10%, FG unchanged, LP up 6%, SF up 6%, GP down 3% and OTH up 1%. So that’s the Govt down 13%, LP and SF up 6% each, and another 1% in the OTH column.

Well, I’ve recovered from my hangover and run the spreadsheet before heading off on a family pre-chrimbo thing. The figures in the SBP have been confirmed as follows;

FF 17
FG 34
LP 23
GP 2
SF 14
OTH 10

I’ll have a bit of a closer look at this when I get the paper, but the spreadsheet says….

FF 23 seats
FG 64 seats
LP 44 seats
SF 21 seats
GP nada
OTH 14 seats

It may be the start of a fightback for FF, but they’re still short of the sort of critical mass they need for seats in most areas, although another 3% or so would see them start to climb more significantly. A very good poll for FG – you have to go back 12 polls to find them as high as this, I suspect their new leader Michael Noonan will claim credit for this 😉

LP miss out on a lot of seats by a small margin here, mainly to SF and FG in that order. SF down a bit, but would still be delighted with this.

As noted at the time, the previous MRBI poll in September followed the FG pairings fiasco, and saw them slump, and a LP surge. This month’s offering follows strong performances by Michael Noonan and the apparent abduction of Enda, and this appears to have pushed them 5% ahead of their future partners/deadly enemies (delete as applicable). However, it does not appear that this is simple movement from LP to FG. What is notable is that the LP losses appear to mirror gains to SF and OTH, with FG gains at the expense of FF. Obviously, in reality there’s more movements involved than that, but the biggest changes appear to be within the left and right, and not between them.

The biggest gain in relative terms is SF, in the aftermath of the Adams announcement and Donegal by-election, and there is also an apparent increase in the OTH column, which may or may not be reflecting an impact from the launch of the ULA.

FG will be of course chuffed with this performance, which puts them ahead of LP in first preferences, and for Gilmore, he now faces a dilemma. While there has been a very clear left-wing vote of 40%+ or so in MRBI and Lansdowne for some time now, this has slowly been approached by RedC, and now all polling companies appear to agree with this finding, which is consistent with polling data on choice of Taoiseach. However, the composition of that 40% plus varies considerably depending on what’s news, and, ironically, movement to the left within this block makes an Enda Kenny led Govt even more likely, as it reduces LP’s seat total, relative to FG. While some of this is likely to drift to Gilmore in a GE campaign by virtue of his status as potential Taoiseach (and all polls for some time have shown LP as first or second place), he still needs to persuade a large chunk of the left to vote for him if he is to lead the next Government..

Now, the spreadsheet. As you know, I ran it when the poll was released and got the following totals;

FF 25
FG 58
LP 48
SF 23
GP 0
OTH 12

Where did they fall this time?

Carlow-Kilkenny
FF 27% (2 )
FG 36% (2 )
LP 20% (1 )
SF 12%
GP 5%

FF hold 2 of their 3 seats here, with LP’s Anne Phelan winning handily enough. I have SF narrowly beating off her running mate and taking FF2 to the last count, but see FF holding them off. FG take Mary White’s seat without breaking a sweat, but not at the races for three.

Cavan-Monaghan
FF 18% (1)
FG 33% (2)
LP 7%
SF 34% ( 2)
GP 2%
IND 7%

FF lose 2 seats here, with ex-CC Rory O’Hanlon not running and Mags Conlon not making it. SF2 takes a seat, holding off challenges from LP’s Liam Hogan and IND Paudge Connolly on these figures.

Clare
FF 24% (1 )
FG 40% (2 )
LP 9%
SF 10.6%
IND 13.8%(1)

FF lose a seat, on these figures IND taking it in a tight tussle with SF and new LP candidate, former Indo euro-hopeful Michael McNamara, who will be hoping to broaden their appeal.

Cork E
FF 17% (1 )
FG 31% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 13%

FF would lose a seat to LP, but a strong challenge from SF could see them competitive. FG2 not completely out of it, and FF1 not safe.

Cork NC
FF 7%
FG 29.8% (2)
LP 26.4% (1)
SF 16.3% (1)
OTHs 20%

Very tight here, and the uncertainty about how Mick Barry is doing in INDs makes it next to impossible to call the last seat with much confidence. FF drop 2 seats, I have one going to SF reasonably handy, and the other is between Barry, LP2 and FG2. I have LP2 (Gilroy) falling behind Barry, and enough of his votes going to FG to keep both their candidates ahead of Barry. If Gilroy is ahead of either Barry or FG2 however, it would be him winning on transfers. If Lynch is LP2, Barry would win on her transfers. FF facing wipeout here – if I was them I’d pay their canvassers danger money here….

Cork NW
FF 31% (1)
FG 45% (2)
LP 17%
SF 5%
GP 2%

FG take two seats, holding off a strong challenge from LP, who would pull it off if they got stronger SF transfers than I assume.

Cork SC
FF 14% (1 )
FG 35% (2 )
LP 26% (1 )
SF 13% (1 )
GP 4%

FF lose a seat, but to SF rather than LP’s Paula Desmond, who on these figures would need LP vote to be evenly split to hold off O’Leary. FG3 not really at the races.

Cork SW
FF 22% (1)
FG 39% (1 )
LP 23% (1 )
SF 12%
GP 4%

LP look set to take a seat from one of the retiring FG TDs here, comfortably enough on these figures.

Donegal NE
FF 27% (1 )
FG 25% ( 1)
LP 12%
SF 28% ( 1)

SF look pretty safe to take a FF seat (if one can call Jim McDaid that)

Donegal SW
FF 20% (1 )
FG 23% (1 )
LP 12%
SF 34% (1 )
IND 10%

As you were. McBreaty (and SF2, if such a creature exists by then) would both challenge Mary Coughlan strongly on Pringle transfers, but on these figures she’d hold on (although perhaps not reaching the quota)

Dublin C
FF 10%
FG 12.6%
LP 33% (2)
SF 17% ( 1)
OTH 26% (1)

FF lose both seats (including Him), one handily enough to SF, the other a dogfight between FG, LP2 and possibly Cieran Perry (his vote is of course hardest to estimate). On these figures, I’d see LP2 winning as long as ahead of either one of the other two, but she will probably need at least a third of the LP vote to pull through. If O’Sullivan doesn’t run, I’d call it as Perry taking her seat (despite being the other end of the constituency) as there’s a decent amount of her vote that would be looking for an Indy leftwinger.

Dublin Mid-West
FF 11%
FG 21% (1)
LP 34% (2)
SF 18% (1)
GP 5%

FF, ex-PD and GP all lose out to LP2, GP and SF.

Dublin N
FF 14% (1)
FG 19% (1)
LP 28% (1)
SF 9%
GP 8%
OTH 22% (1)

Tight enough on these figures. Reilly and LP1 (probably Ryan) look safe as houses, but after that its hard to call. The current increase in OTH voters (which has occurred post the launch of ULA) and a bigger store of SF transfers mean that SP’s Clare Daly looks good to take the 3rd seat, with the last one between FF1 and LP2 (Tom Kelleher), with Sargant too far behind. On this projection, I see FF getting enough GP transfers to stay ahead of Kelleher.

Dublin NC
FF 14%
FG 29% (1)
LP 25% (1)
SF 12%
OTH 19% (1)

Hard to see anything other than LP ending another FF dynasty here.

Dublin NE
FF 10%
FG 24% (1)
LP 37% (1)
SF 22% (1)

SF take Michael Woods seat on these figures – one of a number of LP2s that fall to any Adams Avalanche

Dublin NW
FF 15%
FG 11%
LP 41% (2)
SF 25% (1)

LP vote would have to be disastrously split (say 3/1 or worse) for 2nd seat to be under threat on these figures, while the other gain from FF, for SF, looks safe enough. FG will be hoping that moving the current Lord Mayor onto the ticket with Mad Bill Tormey will help them, but it’s hard to see them pull it off.
Dublin S
FF 14% (1)
FG 34% (2)
LP 34% (2)
SF 9%
GP 5%

FF and GP both lose a seat to LP, who have selected Alex White, and are currently weighing up Aidan Culhane and Hettie McDonald (figuratively, I’d stress). If FF underperform (and going from 2 popular TDs to none, this could happen) a third left seat would appear possible given over 2 LP quotas and 14% between SF and GP. If LP start rising again in the polls, don’t be surprised if they choose to add both Culhane & McDonald to maximise the vote and let the voters decide.

Dublin SC
FF 7%
FG 16% (1)
LP 40% (3)
SF 17% (1)
OTH 19%

FF lose both seats here, with both gains going to a LP who narrowly missed out on 2 seats in ’07. However, they face a very strong challenge from ULA’s Joan Collins, and may yet rue leaving Rebecca Moynihan off the ticket.

Dublin SE
FF 14% (1)
FG 22% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 9%
GP 7%

Kevin Humprhies takes John Gormley’s seat, Chris Andrews holds on, more in the absence of a clear challenger.

A seat here for LP2 (Burton’s running mate to be selected by head office, so presumably not Nulty who would have had the votes at a convention, I’m told), and another for veteran Trotskyist Joe Higgins, sees a fight for the final seat between Brian Lenihen and Leo Varadkar. Would you believe, I have Leo V winning on SF (hence anti-govt) transfers? Lenihen fails to stem the tide if FF are at 11% in Dublin as this poll suggests, and would join his brother among the ranks of unemployed.

Dun Laoghaire
FF 16% (1)
FG 26% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 7%
GP 3%
OTH 13%

A dropped seat here (5 to 4), and FF and GP both lose a seat, with Ivana Bacik finally making it to the Dail. The higher profile Hanafin is getting as a potential leader will probably push her ahead of Barry Andrews, and I see her just about pipping Richard Boyd Barrett for the final seat, although by close enough.

Galway E
FF 16% (1)
FG 46% (2)
LP 15% (1)
SF 9%
IND 13%

FF lose a seat to LP, and nearly another to Indo Sean Canney. FG would have been well placed to pick up a third seat, but for the retirement of their local complement, but they would appear unlikely to be in the running for this, unless FF slide further. Interestingly, LP have selected barrister Lorraine Higgins to run alongside Colm Keaveny, which should make it all interesting…..

Galway W
FF 11% (1)
FG 24% (1)
LP 25% (1)
SF 9%
GP 2%
OTH 30%(2)

Most constituency polls I’ve come across have been very close to the constituency projections, but there have been claims of a FF poll here that has them on 30%. Sounds well fishy to me, given they were under their national vote here in ’07 and that would have them on double it now, but just thought I’d mention it. On these figures, they are lucky to hold on to one seat (in part because LP only run one candidate), with Grealish being joined by ex-LP Cllr Catherine Connolly on the Independent benches.

Kerry N
FF 15%
FG 32% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 33% (1)

Arthur Spring becomes the third member of that dynasty to make DE, at the expense of FF. Both FG and SF may consider a running mate, which could put him under pressure, however.

Kerry S
FF 20%
FG 27% (1)
LP 22% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 20% (1)

LP to take a seat from “The Bull”, assuming they ever get around to selecting a candidate…. The younger Healy Rae to hang on, although the rumoured move of SF’s Toireasa Ferris would put the cat among the pigeons….

Kildare N
FF 10%
FG 25% (1)
LP 37% (2)
SF 8%
OTH 20% (1)

FF collapse, with Catherine Murphy and LP’s John McGinlay looking set to take a seat each, in part from SF transfers.

Kildare S
FF 30% (1)
FG 23% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 5%
GP 4%

Sean Power’s attempts to distance himself from FF seem unlikely to save him, as FG are well placed to take a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes in 1997 (yes, really…!) LP1 and FF1 are both safe, but LP2 really needs LP to be at over 30% nationally to be competitive here.

Laois-Offaly
FF 38% (2)
FG 34% (2)
LP 10.3%
SF 14.4% (1)

Even with a ‘leaders bonus’ for FF (which could be gone by election day) FF should hold 2 seats here, however the 3rd should be beyond them, with Maloney the likeliest casualty. FG survive the loss of Olwyn Enright who (really has) left politics to spend more time with her family (which I understand had a happy addition to it this week – good luck to all of them). I have SF taking the final seat, although I’ve made no adjustment (good bad or indifferent) for the controversial selection of high profile candidate John Whelan by LP. I’d say this could be an interesting one.
Limerick City
FF 16% (1)
FG 30% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 11%

Willie O’Dea holds on, but Power loses out to LP’s Joe Leddin who would be elected on Quinlivan’s transfers. Kieran O’Donnell is likely to rue the resurrection of his running mate Noonan, and the constituency revision which loses him a big chunk of votes. SF will hope that Quinlivan’s relatively high profile will see him outperform even the Adams avalanche predicted in this poll.

Limerick County
FF 25% (1)
FG 46% (1)
LP 22% (1)
SF 5%

LP’s Heffernan takes a seat off FF on SF transfers, with FG just falling short. A funny constituency over the years, it’s likely to give us another surprise this time on these figures.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 20% (1)
FG 32% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 10%

LP gain a seat from FF, possibly a vacant one left by Mammy O’Rourke, although Kelly will be nervous either way. FG will be hopeful of reeling Sexton in, but it’s hard to see them getting enough SF transfers to do this, unless the LP vote split is very bad (3.5 to 1 or so), which seems unlikely given the gender and county balance, regardless of her political history. They could go after her as not being very intellectual, but given the local FG candidate is James “Bonkers” Bannon, this may have less traction than they’d like….

Louth
FF 10% (1 incl CC)
FG 33% (2)
LP 16% (1)
SF 30% (1)
GP 3%

Rookie candidate Gerry Adams tops the poll at his first attempt, and Dermot Ahern shows his political nous by jumping first. LP takes a seat through Nash. Oh, and a handy enough 2nd seat for the FG candidate based near Dundalk, regardless of whether s/he is a celeb or not.

Mayo
FF 20% (1)
FG 54% (3)
LP 10%
SF 13% (1)

Adams Avalanche trumping Gilmore Gale. Cowley has his work cut out for him, and more so if Kilcoyle runs as has been rumoured. Calleary will be pleased to see the back of Cooper Flynn on these figures. Oh, and 4th FG seat not on the cards, as there appears to be a fairly likely left / SF seat here.

Meath E
FF 13%
FG 30% (2)
LP 30% (1)
SF 11%

LP take one FF seat, FG the other, more by default than anything else. Don’t be surprised if a high profile Indo emerges here, as the figures suggest there’s a final seat up in the air.

Meath W
FF 18.5%
FG 34% (1)
LP 16.6% (1)
SF 22.% (1)

That Noel Dempsey is a very clever man, isn’t he? FF to lose both seats, one each to LP and SF, LP getting in on FG2 transfers, thereby returning the favour from Meath E.

While I see Flanagan transferring well to LP’s Kelly (for geography as much as any other reason) I don’t see him catching SF on these figures, and so his transfers end up electing FG2 and SF ahead of FF. Of course Flanagan’s vote could be higher (although the regional breakdown suggests that Indos are underperforming the national figures in Connaught-Ulster). If he got ahead of either LP or SF, I’d make him favourite to take a seat.
Sligo N Leitrim
FF 20.5% (1)
FG 42.8% (1)
LP 12%
SF 23% (1)

Here, FF muster enough support to take a single seat (I’m presuming they don’t split their vote evenly), with SF taking the other. However, if Bree runs for ULA it could be different.

Tipperary N
FF 15%
FG 20% (1)
LP 17% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 37 % (1)

Lowry romping home again, FG in on his transfers and LP largely in on SF number 2s. Hard to see any joy here for FF

Tipperary S
FF 20%
FG 24% (1)
LP 17% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 29% (1)

Even after Mattie declares his intentions it’ll be hard to predict the outcome here. At the moment I’m moving 5% from the FF column to OTH to adjust for him running as an Indo, and see him getting in on that basis, and also spoiling Seamus Healey’s pitch somewhat. Manseragh’s seat would fall to Prendergast. But almost anything could happen (other than FG lose what looks like a solid enough seat)

Waterford
FF 14%
FG 31.5% (2)
LP 27% (1)
SF 15% (1)

FF lose both seats (including the one awaiting a by-election) – one to Coffey (FG) and the other to SF, should they get their act together, although Halligan could challenge them, particularly as LP will only run one candidate.

Wexford
FF 22% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 13% (1)

I’m told that SF have local difficulties, with their previous candidate set to run under the ULA banner, but even entering an adjustment for this I see them best placed to take the last seat on these figures. If they don’t, LP’s Pat Cody appears best placed to take advantage (unless Wexford has gone communist).

Wicklow
FF 10.7%
FG 29.7% (2)
LP 25.8% (1)
SF 13.7% (1)
OTHs 17% (1)

Very close for last few seats, with only FG1, LP1 and Behan safe if they got the FPV of these projections. While it would all be very close, I’d see the last 2 seats going to SF and FG2 in that order, with LP2 just missing out. Too competitive for FF who would be well short of a quota, being assailed from every direction, and so Dick Roche would lose out.

The previous MRBI was after the FG pairings fiasco, and this one is following a Budget debate where the general consensus is that Noonan performed best of the Finance spokespersons, so no great surprise in the apparent movment from LP to FG, although some may be to SF and OTH (with the launch of ULA).

I’ve run it through the spreadsheet and get the following projections;

The excellent UK Polling Report has covered further details of the RedC poll on Irish attitudes to the Euro and Sterling – as pointed out by Neville here Tory MP Mark Reckless (grandson of a former Donegal FF TD) commissioned a question on whether we’d like to ditch the Euro and join Blighty in embracing the pound sterling. Nearly two thirds say NO, which is reported by him as over one third say yes (bless!), but he finds interesting that 43% of the SF vote would support such a move. Given that sample is approximately 108 SF supporters, the margin of error makes this a rather pointless statistic.

Still, interesting all the same. And nice to see us being plugged in the comments section of the UKPR….

The RedC/Irish Sun poll figures have been confirmed, and they do indeed show a marked swing away from FF, and to a lesser degree LP and FG (both within the margin of error) towards SF and INDs. To recap, with my seat projections from yesterday;

On choice of Taoiseach, there’s continued movement towards Gilmore of 2%, and away from Cowen, with Kenny also getting a small lift;

Gilmore 41%
Kenny 25%
Cowen 8%

This indicates I think that while there’s a large body of opinion out there that want Gilmore to lead the next Govt, a significant wodge of that wouldn’t like them to prop up FG, and want an ‘angrier’ reaction to recent events.

It creates a dilemma for Gilmore, as moving too much to the left will alienate a lot of his recently won support (and make governing afterwards harder, having raised unrealistic expectations). It would also raise the spectre of a Guns and Roses LP/SF coalition, and the media onslaught that would unleash.

But ignoring this drift risks seeing him drop lower in the poll. Currently its margin of error stuff, and the combined effect of the Bearded One’s entrance in Louth and the DSW by-election was always likely to see a surge in SF support this month. But there’s a lot of very angry people out there, and while they may fall back somewhat from this rating, I don’t foresee SF going south of 10% any time soon, if at all, and they may even edge up a point or two after the budget.

Gilmore’s greatest trump is that, despite the personalised onslaught by the Indo group against him and his wife, people want him to be Taoiseach in increasing numbers. His greatest drawback is that his supporters fear he’ll put someone else in that they don’t trust. In the course of an election campaign, a significant number of voters drift to the party of their preferred Taoiseach, and in most elections (bar ’92) LP have not been considered part of that equation, to their detriment. This is an election where Gilmore will have to persuade voters that if they want him to be Taoiseach, they need to vote for his candidates, not just in Dublin Central and Wexford, but in places like Roscommon, Meath West and Cavan. If not, they’re more likely to be electing an opposition instead.

FF and Cowen … well, where to start? 13% will represent for some a “new” core vote, but for me it just supports my contention that there’s no such thing. They could recover, but unless the forthcoming Budget involves some sort of magic money machine, or perhaps a time travel device, I suspect that they aren’t going to make major inroads. They may recover by election time by enough to catch SF, but the only way they’ve even an outside chance to be in Govt is as a very minor partner for FG, should this be deemed “in the national interest” by the great and the good.

FG will be unsure how to read this. FF are collapsing and LP are down, but so are they. The fact that the movement is towards parties to the left of LP will be worrying for them, and they’ll be nervously gauging LP’s intentions. They could go hell for leather and accuse LP as potential SF partners in govt, but that would risk alienating the only potential coalition partners they’ll admit to before the election (although afterwards they may consider FF or SF if the figures added up).

SF will of course be cock-a-hoop at this polling (and I suspect my projections). However, there’s a GE campaign to go, and they’d be advised not to lose the head just yet. A lot of this vote is clearly quite fluid, and if a week is a long time in politics, three months are an eternity. But its going as well for them as they could have hoped for, and these figures would see them well placed to be competing with FF to be the largest opposition party in the Dáil, and possibly looking at them as coalition partners in 2016.

The Greens …. Well they strike me as looking for release into the wild at this stage. On these figures, they would remarkably hold on to 2 seats – one in the form of Sargant, but the other, surprisingly, in the form of John Gormley, who would slip ahead of Chris Andrews and get enough transfers from him to stay ahead of SF.

And OTHs…. Always very hard to work out what’s happening with them, but I suspect that the launch of the United Left Alliance (or “Tanks and Trots”) this week has given a wee fillip for this column, again reflecting anger more than a desire for a new govt, I suspect.

Here, an ‘Adams avalanche’ of this scale would outdo a Gilmore Gale, with SF2 taking one FF seat, and FG’s Joe O’Reilly taking the other FF seat. FF’s Brendan Smith hangs on from LP’s Des Cullen, who himself barely squeezes ahead of FG3 on Indo transfers.

Clare
FF 20% (1)
FG 43% (2)
LP 8%
SF 12%
GP 4%
Oth 14% (1)

FF lose a seat, most likely to their gene-pool independent and ex-TD Breen, although SF (and LP if they get a good candidate) would also be in the mix. Dooley, rather than Kileen, would appear more likely to hold on.

SF take a seat from FF, but a fractured left sees FG2 stay ahead of LP2, unless Lynch and Gilroy split their vote reasonably well. FF’s Noel O’Flynn will hope that his protests of independence may save him, and I suspect they’ll pull up his first preferences, but that he’ll still be too far behind for it to make any difference to the final result. Also losing out here would be Billy Kelleher, who would have expected to be a leading member of the FF front bench next time out. SP also lose out, but that’s hard to call as they are in “OTH” and if the swing to them is disproportionately for left-wingers, he could pull it off.

Cork NW
FF 26.5% (1)
FG 48.4% (2)
LP 16.6%
SF 5.7%
GP 2.8%

While there are transfers here for LP, they are too far behind FG2 to reel them in.

Cork SC
FF 10% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 14% (1)
GP 3%

SF’s Chris O’Leary takes a seat, with LP’s Paula Desmond just losing out to FF’s Michail Martin by a handful of votes. Very close though, and could go either way. However, Martin could be leader by the next election, which would make him safe.

Cork SW
FF 18%
FG 41.5% (2)
LP 23% (1)
SF 13%
GP 5%

LP take a seat, and FG2 holds off FF and SF for the 3rd seat.

Donegal NE
FF 23% (1)
FG 27% (1)
LP 11%
SF 31% (1)

Straightforward gain for SF from FF, who hold their single seat with less than a quota. They had 3/3 here when Blaney defected from IFF….
Donegal SW
FF 17%
FG 24% (1)
LP 11%
SF 37% (2)
OTH 10%

On these figures, the combined SF/LP/Pringle vote would hold up to the approx 60% they got in the by-election, and if SF ran a running mate for Doherty, s/he would most likely stay ahead of McBrearty, and with transfers from Pringle and the LP man, take the final seat from FF. Even if SF ran a single candidate, FF would still most likely lose out, with the battle being between McBreaty and Pringle, given most SF transfers would go their way, but at present I’m giving it to SF2.

Donoghue makes it a hatrick of ‘surprise’ defeats, with Mary-Lou getting in, and LP’s Aine Clancy beating the FG man by doing better from transfers from Cieran Perry and FF’s Mary FitzPatrick. Perry though is a dark horse, and if you’re offered good odds against him, you should consider them. And if MOS doesn’t run (as has been suggested) he’s very likely to pull it off.

Dub MW
FF 7%
FG 23% (1)
LP 32.4% (2)
SF 19% (1)
GP 7%

FF lose a seat to LP, PDs lose a seat to FG, and GP lose a seat to SF. Not a happy prospect for the Govt, but at least they’d be sharing the pain equally…..

Dub N
FF 9%
FG 21% (1)
LP 27% (1)
SF 10%
GP 11.4% (1)
SP/ULA 13% (1)

FF lose 2 seats, to LP and Clare Daly. SF also in the mix, and I have Sargant holding on, largely on FF transfers. LP would be well placed if they had a well balanced ticket and split the vote well, but at this stage we’re still none the wiser who will be Ryan’s running mate, and so I don’t see them getting their act together in time for the election. Daly is however vulnerable to SF, as a lot of their natural votes may have gone to her in the past, as they were considered no-hopers before, and some of these may return.

Dub NC
FF 10%
FG 31% (1)
LP 24% (1)
SF 13%
GP 3%
OTH 19% (1)

The Haughey dynasty falls, with LP’s Aodhan O’Riordan taking a seat, and Finian McGrath holding on against a SF challenge.

Dub NE
FF 7%
FG 26% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 23% (1)
GP 3%

SF nip in and take the last seat from LP2, who have been taking this in most polls. FF not even at the races, FG appear safe for 1 seat.

Dub NW
FF 11%
FG 12%
LP 41% (2)
SF 27% (1)

FF lose both seats, “The Brother” and Minister Carey. LP take one and SF the other. FG not well enough placed to come close.

Dub S
FF 10% (1)
FG 36% (2)
LP 32% (2)
SF 10%
GP 7.5%

FF will run without an outgoing TD, following the death of Seamus Brennan and the confirmed retirement of Tom Kitt. I still see them just about holding on here, as I believe that GP transfers will put them ahead of SF, but that’s based on the assumption of a 2-candidate LP ticket. A White/Culhane/McCarthy ticket would put the cat among the pigeons, mind…. If they split 14/10/8 (not unreasonable) LP3 would be ahead of Ryan, and would be well placed to over take SF on GP transfers. Probably not going to happen, but still….

Collapse in FF vote here. I have LP vote splitting 15% Byrne, 13% Hupton and 10.4% Conaghan, with LP3 reeling in ULA’s Joan Collins on FF and GP transfers (FG and SF transfers cancelling out their respective preferences for LP and ULA). Very very close though, and Collins could definitely sneak it, particularly if LP vote is more skewed. FG2 and FF1 are not in the mix.

Dub SE
FF 11%
FG 24% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 10.0%
GP 9.4% (1)

Somewhat controversially (I suspect!) I see Gormely creeping ahead of SF on IND transfers, then getting enough from SF to overtake FF, and then be elected on Chris Andrews transfers. Less controversially, 2 LP and 1 FG.

Dub SW
FF 6%
FG 23% (1)
LP 33.4% (2)
SF 24.8% (1)

No surprise here but LP’s Eamonn Maloney gets elected on SF surplus.

Dub W
FF 11%
FG 18% (1)
LP 40% (2)
SF 11%
SP 20% (1)

If the tide’s out, it’s out. Brian Lenihen, even with an upward adjustment, would lose his seat to veteran trotskyist, Joe “M.E.P.” Higgins. LP pick up the additional seat from the revision, but the identity is unclear. I understood that a convention was likely to select Burton and Nulty, but now hear that only 1 candidate will be selected by convention, with a possible addition by Head Office. Possibly this is to add someone more amenable than Nulty, which suggests that HQ knows the fight for the last seat will be with Lenihen, rather than Higgins.

D/Laoghaire
FF 13%
FG 28% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 7%
GP 4.5%
ULA 13% (1)

Drops a seat, and 3 ministers, with Mary Hanafin, Barry Andews and Ciaran Cuffe all facing marching orders. On these figures, Bacik and Boyd-Barrett should both be ahead of FG2 after SF/GP transfers (and Gilmore’s surplus), and already edging ahead of FF1 (after the elimination of FF2).

Galway E
FF 12%
FG 50% (2)
LP 14% (1)
SF 10%
OTH 13% (1)

FF lose both their seats, one to LP and the other (just about) to FF gene-pool Indo McHugh. FG hold both seats, despite 2 retirements, one presumably going to ex-PD leader Ciaran Cannon. SF in line to poll well, but are likely to fall short, unless McHugh underperforms the swing to OTH (quite possible if this is a swing to left-wing parties).

Well, hard to see, but if FF are at a third of their ’07 polling, this would appear to be the outcome here… I’d not write them off, but they are very much up against it. They may of course be holding on better here if there’s a different swing in the Gaeltacht (there often is) but if that’s the case and they are still 13% nationally, that means they are lower still elsewhere….

On these figures FF lose both seats, FG2 takes one of them, and the other is won by left-wing Indo Catherine Connolly. New LP candidate Derek Nolan would hold onto Michael D’s seat, and Noel Grealish would hang on. Again, SF not a million miles off, and they could be fighting it out with Connolly for that last seat, but I have her beating them on LP transfers.

Kerry N
FF 12%
FG 34% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 35% (1)

FF suffer a relative collapse, although at about their national average, you could argue its a substantial improvement on ’07 ….. The Spring Dynasty returns, although Arthur, one suspects, won’t reach the heights of the Uncle. FG and SF are safe as a safe house.

Kerry S
FF 16%
FG 29% (1)
LP 22% (1)
IND 20% (1)
SF 11%

FF’s JOD loses out to the Gilmore Gale in this instance, with the younger Healy-Rae also taking a seat. LP have yet to select a candidate though, and if SF choose Toireasa Ferris as mooted on p.ie by some posters, the last 2 seats will be keenly contested. FG seat is very safe.

Kildare N
FF 6%
FG 27% (1)
LP 36% (2)
SF 9%
OTH 20% (1)

FF appear set to see a collapse in their vote here. I would caution that the swing might not be as big here, as I’ve a gut feeling that workers in some multinationals around here may be less tempted by the left-wing offerings, but it’s hard to see it stopping LP2 and Murphy (IND) joining Stagg and Durkan (if he runs).

Kildare S
FF 25% (1)
FG 25% (1)
LP 36% (1)
SF 6%
GP 5%

FG gain from FF. In other circumstances the LP/left vote could deliver a 2nd seat, but not with the figures falling in that pattern. No danger in running a LP2 though, despite the reluctance of Jack Wall, who reputedly would rather bequeath the seat, which might be complicated by another Lp cllr getting a run out this time….

SF gain the 3rd FF seat. Much talk that LP are going to impose former Leinster Leader editor, Laois based John Whelan ahead of several local cllrs (all apparently called O’Brien, for some reason…) provoking a local split, but this projection suggests that without a game-changing move (such as that) they’d lose out to SF on current polling.

Limerick City
FF 12%
FG 33% (1)
LP 35% (2)
SF 12.3% (1)

On these figures the swing and the revision of the constituency (dropping a seat) would see FF lose 2 seats, one to LP and the other to SF’s Maurice Quinlivan, who has a well documented record of tormenting Willie O’Dea. FG would also most likely lose a seat, probably Kieran O’Donnell who loses a lot of his area in the revision, although a decent FF-to-FG transfer when O’Dea is eliminated might save him at the expense of SF.

Limerick County
FF 21%
FG 49% (2)
LP 22% (1)
SF 5%

Always been an odd one, this. The PD’s took a seat in ’87 (leaving FG with none), FG took 2 seats in ’97 as a result of Indo FFers running, and on this occasion it looks like FF could lose a seat each to FG and LP’s Jim Heffernan. A very modest FF recovery would see them hold one seat however, most likely at LP’s expense.

Longford-Westmeath
FF 17% (1)
FG 34.6% (1)
LP 36.2% (2)
SF 10.5%

FF lose a seat to LP who have high hopes for former PD intellectual Mae Sexton 😉 Still, in fairness, her main local competition is “Bonkers” Bannon….. FG2 and SF may be competitive, but appear too far behind, and as long as Sexton stays ahead of one, is likely to get sufficient transfers from the other (and from Penrose, of course)

Louth
FF 6%
FG 34.9% (2)
LP 15.1% (1)
SF 31.8% (1)
GP 4.5%

FF collapse (that Dermot Ahern is very canny, isn’t he…?) SF would probably have too lob-sided a vote to take 2 seats here (I’ve given them a big leaders bonus) and I’d see FG taking a second seat, assuming they persuade MMcG (Mairead, not Martin) to run.

Nash should take a seat for LP, but on these figures I’d be cautious about their consideration (reportedly) of a Dundalk sweeper…)

Mayo
FF 16% (1)
FG 57% (3)
LP 9%
SF 14% (1)

On these figures, the Adams Avalance would push SF ahead of LP’s Jerry Cowley. Either way, one of htem takes a seat from FF, most likely Calleary.

Meath E
FF 9%
FG 33% (2)
LP 29% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose 2 seats, one each to LP and FG. LP would be in the running for a second with SF and Indo transfers, but I’m informed that they’ll not run a second candidate, so it’ll be Hannigan, with his transfers electing FG (unless SF do very well in Indo, FF and LP transfers)

Meath W
FF 14%
FG 37% (1)
LP 16% (1)
SF 25% (1)

FF lose 2 seats (including Noel Dempsey) both to the left, SF on a quota and LP edging ahead of FG2 on FF transfers (FG needing about twice as many of them to keep both their candidates ahead).

Roscommon – S Leitrim
FF 15%
FG 45% (2)
LP 13%
SF 20% (1)
OTH 6%

Well, this would be a turn up for the books …. FF wer already down to 1 seat in this 3-seater, but on this poll, they’d lose that one also. FG would hold the 2 seats, but it would be SF, rather than LP’s John Kelly who would take the seat. Both would be close enough, and Ming Flanagan couldn’t be ruled out, but with 39% between them, it would appear fairly certain that one of the 3 seats should go outside the FF/FG fold. On these figures, Flanagan would be eliminated first, putting Kelly ahead of FF1, but SF would appear most likely to be too far ahead for Kelly to pull him in. It would be a surprise, but Martin Kelly polled comfortably ahead of SF’s national rating last time. However, he was one of the few Leitrim candidates and a fair bit of his vote may come from that, and it may be that the Adams avalanche will not necessarily lift that boat to the same degree, in which case Kelly may catch him.

But one to watch…

Sligo N Leitrim
FF 15%
FG 45% (2)
LP 12%
SF 25% (1)

Similar to Roscommon, although this time FF lose one each to FG and SF. Here SF are on safer ground, as their candidate is Sligo based and so there is no esoteric ‘Leitrim’ basis for the base vote. O’Keefe would appear to be struggling unless she makes significant inroads into the FG vote, which appears to be an uphill battle. Wild card could be Declan Bree, who is rumoured to be considering a comeback under the ULA banner.

Let’s hope there’s no discussions about Stalin at the selection convention… 😉

Tipp Nth
FF 12%
FG 21% (1)
LP 17% (1)
Lowry 32% (1)
SF 11%

FF lose their only seat to LP’s Kelly. Lowry safe as an entire housing estate….

Tipp Sth
FF 14%
FG 26% (1)
LP 17%
IND 32% (2)
SF 11%

Mattie takes an Indo seat that will magically transform itself to FF after the election, and Manseragh lose his seat to Healy. LP falls short, McGrath’s gambit paying off. No real space for SF as the combination of Indo FF, ULA and mainstream LP just doesn’t leave enough left for them (11% is no disgrace though…)

Waterford
FF 10%
FG 34.5% (2)
LP 26% (1)
SF 16% (1)

This is a constituency where Lp have announced that they’ll only be running one candidate, and a SF surge means that they might not be missing out as a result. Although, had they persuaded Gilligan to jump aboard, it would have been much more interesting. SF gain a seat, as do FG at the expense of FF who would have been weakened anyway by Cullen’s retirement.

Wexford
FF 18% (1)
FG 38% (2)
LP 24% (1)
SF 15% (1)

FF lose a seat, but its to SF rather than LP. This is despite an adjustment for the SF candidate jumping ship and joining ULA.

Wicklow
FF 7%
FG 32% (2)
LP 25% (1)
SF 15% (1)
GP 5%
OTH 17% (1)

FF collapse, Behan holds his FF seat as an Indo, and Roche loses his to SF. LP fall just short of a second seat as a result, but if Behan doesn’t stand (as rumoured) they would take the seat.