A deal on Wednesday that delivers a concrete supply reduction of at least 1M barrels a day, with non-members such as Russia on board could boost oil beyond its recent $40-$50 range.

News before the weekend stating Saudi Arabia wouldn't attend a gathering with non-OPEC producers on Monday prompted a significant pullback, but crude prices could bounce around over the next few days as the group tries to resolve internal differences.

Tomorrow's talks will be converted into another OPEC-only meeting, sources told Reuters.

Crude prices are little changed as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to Thanksgiving kept traders from making big bets on markets.

OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much.

OPEC experts have made progress on confirming details of plans to cut output, in the first day of a two-day meeting of the group's High-Level Committee.

While some said Iran still had reservations about the details of the deal, several delegates expressed optimism that a final agreement would be reached by the Nov. 30 meeting when oil ministers gather in Vienna.

Oil prices are up 1.2% to $48.81/bbl in early trade, recording their highest level since October.

Progress toward an OPEC deal is marked by a flattening out of production in Iran, which is seeking exemptions from the deal as it tries to regain oil market share, and by difficulties in Russia in increasing output, but OPEC's influence is limited to at most 500K bbl/day, or 0.5% of global production, the economist says.

While a deal looks likely, STO plays down its impact on over-supply in a market that the company expects to see tighten, pushing up prices, by 2018.

The latest chatter on some sort of agreement comes from Libyan OPEC Governor Mohamed Oun, who says the cartel is discussing an output range of 32.5M-33M barrels per day (vs. current levels just north of 35M).

OPEC meets to maybe hammer out a formal deal later this month.

Source: Bloomberg

WTI crude today is higher by 3.9% to $47.48 per barrel - now up about $4 per barrel over the past few sessions.

Iraq would have to compensate international oil companies for limits placed on their production, according to industry sources, further reducing the prospect it will join any OPEC deal to curb the group's output.

A strengthening U.S. dollar is also weighing on prices. A stronger greenback makes oil, which is priced in dollars, more expensive to buyers in other currencies.