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A report by Moody’s Investors Service demonstrates the folly of Trump administration policy aimed at reviving the foundering coal industry.

The administration’s policy is based on the false premise that the industry has declined due to unwarranted environmental regulation. But the real issue is that the industry no longer can compete in the actual marketplace.

Moody’s report is based on projects by the PJM Interconnection, operator of the largest power grid in North America. It manages the delivery of electricity to 65 million people in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C.; West Virginia and Ohio and parts of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and North Carolina.

Due to low-cost Marcellus Shale gas and the construction of gas-fueled power plants, the power supply within the PJM area will increase by 25 percent by 2021 amid a negligible increase in demand due to increased efficiency, producing a peak-period price drop of 15 percent, according to Moody’s analysis.

No one will make major investments in coal production in that economic environment, regardless of the effort to eviscerate environmental regulations.

Gas already produces 34 percent of the power in the PJM, followed by coal at 30 percent and nuclear at 28 percent, with the rest from a mix of renewable sources. And, according to Moody’s, there is enough capacity in pending permit applications for gas-fueled power plants to replace all of Pennsylvania’s coal-fired plants.

Moody’s analysis is not speculative. It confirms developments on the ground. Administration policy should reflect that reality.

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