John Kerry almost assured of victory and thus becoming our next president.

If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.

This shows a significant drop for Obama.

I am a premium member of one polling company, actually am telephone polled for another and get emails fro the third. I admit i enjoy them but have learned form 40 years in politics that they can be terribly inaccurate.

The polls fluctuate, but you fail to realize a 7 point lead is still very substantial (as I pointed out earlier and you clearly ignored). Whats to say tomorrow it wont be back to +9 for Obama after a bad weekend for McCain?

The states haven't tighetened up either, FL is getting bluer and bluer and now a PPP poll of Colorado (1300+ LV's) has Obama up by 10. IA + NM + CO + Kerry States = President Obama.

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

You of course provide none of the credentials for being a likely voter under that model.

It is right there, Blinky.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior.

Now do you get it? Registered voters are just that. Registered voters who have never voted included. No questions on how they voted in the past or anything else asked other than party affiliation and a couple of other questions. Does this make a difference? It does.