UP & Bihar with the lowest reported rape cases?

Several brutal rape cases in different parts of the country continue to shake our collective conscience. Multiple incidents in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh (Badaun and Lucknow), and the most recent case of brutality in Bangalore are a stark reminder of the enormity of the problem that confronts us.

A closer look at the rape statistics can give us a better sense of the problem. Swaniti Initiative carried out an analysis of reported cases of rape in different States over a 20 year period between 1992 and 2012. The analysis is part of Swaniti’s effort to consolidate various developmental metrics such as security, health, livelihoods, education and infrastructure and overlap them with administrations in office, on a single user-friendly platform, called Jigyasa.

The first striking aspect of the rape numbers is that the North-Eastern States have the highest incidence of rape (per 100,000 people) among all States. In 2012, the 5 States with the highest rape incidence were Mizoram (9.21), Tripura (6.15), Sikkim (5.51), Assam (5.42) and Meghalaya (5.41, all belonging to the same region. However, Arunachal Pradesh (3.26), Manipur (2.15) and Nagaland (1.06) have much lower incidences of reported rape.

What is most surprising however, is that Uttar Pradesh has one of the fewest reported cases of rape among all Indian States. With only 0.97 rape cases registered in UP for every 100,000 people in 2012, only Bihar (0.87) and Gujarat (0.77) had a lower incidence among the 28 States.

These figures can be partly explained by the fact that patriarchy as an institution is less entrenched in tribal societies, which allows women to report cases without fear. In contrast, the problem of caste and gender subordination have been found to play a role in the under-reporting of cases in UP and Bihar.

If the low incidence of rape in UP is indeed because of under-reporting, then things have only gotten worse with time. While most other States saw a massive increase in reported cases between 1992 and 2012, UP and Bihar saw a decline. The table below shows the number of rape cases (per 100,000population) in 1992 and 2012. The contrast between UP, Bihar and some of the other States is evident.

State

No. of rape cases registered in 1992 (per 100,000 population)

No. of rape cases registered in 2012 (per 100,000 population)

% increase in rape incidence (1992-2012)

Punjab

0.32

2.42

659%

Kerala

0.77

3.04

293%

Odisha

1.01

3.43

239%

Karnataka

0.38

1.00

162%

West Bengal

0.89

2.21

150%

Assam

2.33

5.42

132%

Tamil Nadu

0.45

1.01

123%

Haryana

1.29

2.59

100%

Bihar

1.26

0.87

(-)31%

Uttar Pradesh

1.23

0.97

(-)22%

Gujarat

0.82

0.77

(-)6%

As the table shows, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar saw a fall in rape cases, while other States saw a significant increase. However, there is a difference between Gujarat and the other two States. While the variation in rape rates across years has been low in Gujarat, it has been rather high in UP and Bihar, as shown below:

Such sharp variations between years does seem to indicate that lower reporting may have had a role to play in the lower incidence of crime in UP and Bihar. Gujarat has been rated the most secure state in the Female Security Index (FSI) by the Tata Strategic Management Group, while UP and Bihar figure much lower down the list. It is evident that reporting has a critical role to play in rape and crime statistics.

In the current environment it is difficult to tackle the increasingly brutal rape cases in UP without even having the proper reporting mechanisms. Thus highlighting the urgent need for improvement in law and order in the state.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

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Author

Rwitwika Bhattacharya is the founder of Swaniti Initiative, which supports parliamentarians on development issues. At Swaniti, she has the pleasure of working at the nexus of governance and development. Prior to this, she worked at the World Bank on issues of labor markets and political economy. She is a graduate of Harvard Kennedy School's Public Policy program and currently resides in Delhi.
For more information on development and data follow @swaniti.

Rwitwika Bhattacharya is the founder of Swaniti Initiative, which supports parliamentarians on development issues. At Swaniti, she has the pleasure of worki. . .