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- from a neoconservative perspective! - Keeping an eye on the communist-left so you don't have to!

Friday, April 25, 2008

North Carolina, with its large African American population, has long been seen as a firewall for Obama after contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere that favored Clinton. A win here and in Indiana, which also votes May 6, could cement his status as the front-runner.

If Clinton wins in Indiana and is able to score an upset, or even lose by a small margin, in North Carolina, her comeback would probably gain fresh momentum. A lopsided Clinton loss would essentially negate any recent gains she has made in delegates, in the nationwide popular vote and in persuading superdelegates to support her.

"They're going to try to win in Indiana and close like crazy in North Carolina," said Joe Trippi, who was a top adviser to the campaign of former North Carolina senator John Edwards before he dropped out of the race. Edwards has not endorsed either candidate, despite repeated entreaties from both.

Obama and Clinton have campaigned heavily in Indiana, where the race is expected to be close because of its proximity to Obama's Chicago home and its large number of white working-class voters, who have backed Clinton in other states.

They have spent less time in North Carolina, and as the race has shifted here both campaigns have sought to lower expectations.

"This is an uphill climb. To win here would be the upset of the century," said Averell "Ace" Smith, director of Clinton's North Carolina campaign.

Actually, I don't know if it makes sense for Clinton to invest heavily in North Carolina.

Blacks make up roughly 25 percent of the state's population, and black voters will be a large factor in the Democratic primary.

Yet Indiana's where Hillary's gold is for the next stage of the nomination battle.

Obama holds a bare lead in the Hoosier State, 41 to 38 percent. The Clinton camp should prioritize the vote there, as a big win in the heartland will allow the campaign to continue hammering Obama on his inability to win over white working class voters.

Indeed, as Obama continues to struggle with the fallout from his radical ties, Hillary can paint an Obama win in North Carolina as possible only because of the far-left racial constituencies of Democratic Party.