With all that has happened since
Rich Rodriguez left West Virginia for Michigan last
December, it is very hard to remember what we thought of
Rodriguez during his "pre-buyout debacle"
coaching career.
The very first time we became aware of Rich Rodriguez
was when he showed up on Tommy Bowden's staff as the
offensive coordinator at Tulane. The spread
offense that Rodriguez ran with great effectiveness at
Tulane, and later at Clemson under Bowden, left us with
the impression of an up and coming assistant, and it was
only natural that West Virginia would turn to WVU
alumnus Rodriguez when Don Nehlen retired. What we
did not realize about Rodriguez in his pre-head coaching
days was the amount of influence he was having on
offenses in college football, and the number
of coaches that were starting to utilize his spread
techniques/offense in their own football programs.
Sometime in Rodriguez's 2nd or 3rd year at West
Virginia, we started paying attention to Rodriguez,
including the way he was reshaping the Mountaineer
football program, the spread offense that he was running
at WVU, and the recruits he was bringing to Morgantown.
Of course, in Rodriguez's 5th year at WVU in 2005, the
Mountaineer win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl marked
Rodriguez as one top young coaches in the game.
The first time that we heard that something might be
going wrong with Rodriguez at West Virginia was in 2006,
when there were comments out on the street that
Rodriguez might be looking to leave WVU if the right
offer came along after the '06 season. Evidently
the right offer did come along, when Alabama offered
their job to Rodriguez and Rich's now infamous agent
Mike Brown spent two days in Tuscaloosa negotiating a
contract for Rodriguez to take the head coaching job at
Alabama. The terms of that contract were somewhere in the
neighborhood of $2.75 million a year (about a million
less a year than Alabama ended up paying Saban) and the
people at Alabama will tell you today that they believed
that Rodriguez had accepted the job and that they had a
new head coach. Of course, Don Nehlen and other
prominent WVU alumni rallied to keep Rodriguez at West
Virginia (Alabama moved onto to Nick Saban), but for
some reason the problems that caused Rodriguez to get to
the brink of taking the Alabama job never really went
away. Whether it was just the $4 million dollar
buyout that West Virginia insisted on (as they should
have), or if there were other issues that Rodriguez was
not happy about at WVU, clearly Rodriguez was distraught
just after the loss in the Pittsburgh game last fall,
which led to him and his agent to contact Michigan
about their head coach job opening.

The loss to Pittsburgh last fall
that cost Rodriguez and West Virginia a spot in the
national title game is the turning point in this sad
story, because there is no doubt in our mind that if
West Virginia had beat the Panthers, Rodriguez would
still be working in Morgantown right now. Watching
the West Virginia-Pittsburgh game is like watching an
old episode of the Twilight Zone, because the WVU team
that showed up that night looked like a totally
different team than the one that had played the rest of
the '07 season. It is obvious from the kick-off of
the game against Pitt that West Virginia was extremely tight, and
there is only one person at WVU that could have impacted
the team to such a degree that they could barely execute
a snap from center, and that man is Rich Rodriguez.
Why would one of the most dominant teams in college
football in the '07 season, be so tight against a team
in Pitt that arrived in Morgantown with a 4-7 record?
What could have possibly led to the chaos of the Pitt
game that as we watch it now, looks to us like some the
West Virginia players were actually
getting a kick out of watching Rodriguez meltdown on the
sideline? There is always a reason that a team
plays in a certain way, and watching Rodriguez in the
Pitt game, Rodriguez strikes us as someone that is worried how a
loss to Pitt will effect Rich Rodriguez, rather than how
it will effect the West Virginia football program.
That observation, along with watching Rodriguez operate
in the last couple of years, explains everything that
happened between the WVU loss to Pitt and Rodriguez and
Michigan agreeing to pay the entire $4 million dollar
buyout last week. It is now very obvious that this
entire West Virginia buyout debacle wasn't about
principle, or even a disagreement between the two
parties. This entire thing was about Rich
Rodriguez, because everything in Rich Rodriguez's life
is about Rich Rodriguez. It is very easy to pick
out a narcissist in today's world, by the way they talk
about themselves and how they believe that things that
happen in the world are all related to whether it either
helps or hurts their life. American Heritage
defines a narcissist as: "A psychological
condition characterized by self-preoccupation, lack of
empathy, and unconscious deficits in self-esteem."
Is there a better definition of Rodriguez's behavior in
the last couple of years at West Virginia that that
definition of a narcissist? Not in our mind, and
we have no doubt that if Rodriguez continues this
behavior it will be his undoing on the much larger stage
that is Michigan football. If you don't believe
that Rich Rodriguez exhibits narcissist behavior, just
listen to Rodriguez in a press conference or when he is
talking to reporters and notice how many times he says
"I" instead of "team," and "me" and
"my players" instead of "our team." Rodriguez talks about himself all of
the time and in our opinion we believe that he has shown by his actions in the past 7
months that he really does not care how his behavior has
affected his alma mater in West Virginia, or even his
new employer in Michigan for that matter.

One interesting story that we would
like to relate is from the
Fiesta Bowl from this past January, when Bill Stewart
had an opportunity to coach and field a West Virginia
team that was not under the influence of Rodriguez.
We had an opportunity to see the West Virginia players
up close on the sidelines in the Fiesta
Bowl against Oklahoma, and they looked and acted like a
totally different
team from what we experienced and saw when Rodriguez was
still the head coach. Anyone that watched the
Fiesta Bowl and saw how well the West Virginia players
reacted to Rodriguez's departure and their opponent in
Oklahoma, certainly left that game thinking that
something was going on within the WVU football program
when Rodriguez was the head coach.

With the buyout debacle behind him,
Rich Rodriguez now can start fresh at Michigan and try
to move beyond the mess that he has made of his
departure from West Virginia. The only relevant
question going forward is: Will Rich Rodriguez
succeed at Michigan? It is our opinion that if a
head football coach can win games and conference titles
at West Virginia, he can certainly win at Michigan, and
we fully expect to Rodriguez to build a winning football
program in Ann Arbor. Rodriguez will face much
tougher competition in the Big Ten than the Big East,
because there will be at least a-half-a-dozen Big Ten
teams on Michigan's schedule each year that can beat the
Wolverines. The expectations at Michigan are very
high, and Rodriguez was not hired to be competitive in
the Big Ten, but rather to dominate their main rival in
Ohio State, to win conference titles, and National
Championships, and those expectations will be how
"success" will be measured for Rodriguez at Michigan in
the coming years. It is very hard to predict if
Rodriguez will live up to those expectations, especially
because his actions since his departure from West
Virginia have done tremendous damage to the "Rodriguez"
brand, and in the cut-throat world of recruiting,
Rodriguez has only hurt himself and Michigan by his
behavior. Getting great recruits and
student-athletes to Michigan will determine whether
Rodriguez will be able to bring championships to Ann
Arbor, and it is impossible to know whether Rodriguez
can out-recruit the programs that he will have to
compete against in the Big Ten conference going forward.

Rich Rodriguez dug a deep hole for
himself with the way he handled his departure from West
Virginia, but he has the coaching ability to get himself
out of the current mess, and we wish him luck with his
new challenge in Ann Arbor. Michigan is a great
football program, they have great fans and alumni, and
they deserve a great football team. We are going
to have great fun watching Rodriguez over the next few
years to see if he can perform at the highest level of
the game. Good Luck!

Coaches Hot Seat
Bottom Line

We predict that
Rich Rodriguez and Michigan will have a 4-8 record in
2008.
Rich Rodriguez in his first game at Michigan could
probably not have a tougher non-BCS out-of-conference
game to open the season, with the Utah Utes traveling to
the Big House for one of the most interesting games of
the opening weekend. Utah played much better and
more consistently under Whittingham in 2008, and they
will bring a very good football to Ann Arbor, and we see
Utah getting the win in Rodriguez's first game, which
drops the Michigan record to 0-1. Week 2 is
another tough game for Michigan with MAC conference team
Miami (Ohio) traveling to Ann Arbor. After an
opening season loss, we see Michigan playing a little
better in this game to get the win over Miami (Ohio),
which takes their record to 1-1. Week 3 is
Rodriguez's first step onto the big stage, with a trip
to South Bend to play Charlie Weis and the Fighting
Irish. Notre Dame should be a better team in '08
than they were in the '07 season, and we see the Irish
getting the win over Michigan, which drops the Wolverine
record to 1-2. The Big Ten schedule gets under way
in week 4 with Wisconsin visiting Ann Arbor, and
Rodriguez will get an early taste of what the Big Ten is
all about with the Badgers bringing their physical style
of play to Ann Arbor. Michigan should be starting
to play better by week 4, but we see Wisconsin getting
the win in this game. After four games, Michigan
is 1-3. The Big Ten schedule continues with Ron
Zook and the Illini traveling to Ann Arbor in week 5,
and this will be two spread offenses going against each
other, in what will be an example of what most Big Ten
teams will probably look like in the coming years.
In a closer game than expected, we see Illinois getting
the win in this game, which drops the Michigan record to
1-4. Another MAC team in Toledo visits Ann Arbor
in week 6 and this will not be a game that Michigan will
be able to let up in, and in another close game, we see
Michigan getting the win, which raises their record to
2-4. Rich Rodriguez gets to play his first road
game in the Big Ten, and boy is it a beaut with a trip
to Happy Valley to play Penn State. With over
105,000 crazy Penn State fans and a slightly better
Nittany Lion team in '08, we see Penn State getting a
win in this game. After seven games, Michigan is
2-5. Mark Dantonio and Michigan State arrive in
Ann Arbor in week 8 and Rodriguez has probably already
learned this is not a game he will be able to lose on
any kind of regular basis. The problem for
Rodriguez is that Mark Dantonio is not going to be a
walkover, and in the coming years Rodriguez might do
very well to just split the series with Spartans, and
unfortunately that will just not be good enough for the
Michigan fans. Dantonio has brought a lot of
stability and has changed the mindset at Michigan State
in his short time there, and we believe MSU will beat UM
in this game. After eight games, Michigan is 2-6.
If Michigan is 2-6 after eight games, the trip to West
Lafayette to play Joe Tiller and the Boilermakers in
week 9 will not be something that Rodriguez will be
looking forward to. After a Purdue commit changed
his mind and signed with Michigan earlier this year,
Tiller said about Rodriguez, “If
we had an early signing date, you wouldn’t have another
outfit with a guy in a wizard hat selling snake oil get
a guy at the last minute, but that’s what happened.”
Now that is a hellava line, and we believe Purdue will
be ready to play the Wolverines and get the win in this
game. After nine games, Michigan is 2-7. In
week 10 Michigan travels to Minnesota in what will be
Tim Brewster's second year, and this should be a very
close game between two teams that are looking to find
their footing. We believe Michigan will get the
win in this game, which raises their record to 3-7.
In week 11 Northwestern travels to Ann Arbor and this
should be another close Big Ten game with Michigan
pulling away in the 2nd half to get the win. After
11 games, Michigan is 4-7. Michigan ends the
season with a trip to Columbus to play the Ohio State
Buckeyes, and this will be the first of several battles
between Rich Rodriguez and Jim Tressel. Jim
Tressel is 11 years older than Rodriguez, which is not
all that much different than the age difference between
Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler (16 years) and there
certainly is an opportunity for 10 or so games between
Rodriguez and Tressel in the coming years. If Rich
Rodriguez has the desire to win championships (if he
doesn't he is coaching at the wrong place) then he is
going to have to find a way to beat Jim Tressel and Ohio
State a majority of the time, and Rodriguez is going to
find in this first match-up with the Buckeyes just how
difficult of a challenge that is going to be. We
see Ohio State getting a couple of touchdowns win in
this game, and that sends the Michigan '08 regular
season record to 4-8.

Is 4-8 acceptable for Rich
Rodriguez in his first year at Michigan? Of course
not, but Rodriguez is bringing an entirely new culture
and type of offense to Michigan, and it is going to be a
tremendous challenge to get all of the Wolverine players
on the same page, and the Big Ten is just too tough of a
place these days to not have your team playing at their
highest level. The schedule also works against
Rodriguez, with one tough out-of-conference game in
Utah, and many very tough Big Ten games at home.
Overall, 4-8 record will be a big letdown for the
Michigan fans, but with the amount of change that
Rodriguez is bringing to the Wolverine football program
every win over 4 wins will be an accomplishment, and a
.500 record in year 1 would be a minor miracle.