Category Archives: Weekly Notes Posts

The spectacular rally since last August completely ran out of steam. The uptrend line btw Nov. and Jan. low was broken (with significant bearish pressure – weekly engulfing ) and the subsequent rally hit the wall at $1320 and a lower high was created… Now the next hurdle for bears is the apparently strong $1280 level which equals to 38.2%

Chinese bonds – Just wondering what the trade war means for Chinese bonds as the 10-yr government bonds yield declined to 3.40% from 3.90% this year alone, while the 10-yr China Development Bank bonds yield slid to 3.80% from 4.80% since January. Do I have to question the higher US yield and safety status of Trys? Amid the turbulence in

…in relation to our view based on the weekly chart published a week ago (below article): A breakdown through an “ideal” double bottom formation and scenario 2 might be in play. The long weekend in US (market is open but lower liquidity expected) can present itself as a perfect envirnoment for a quick manipulation. Do you agree with us? Intraday

The US 30-year Trys rate touching 3.41% means printing a 4-yr high or a new high for the cycle. Lesson – historically if rates go up volatility goes up as well, thus creating a messy outlook for stocks, bonds and other asset clasees. But we still miss a significant move in bond markets despite recent correction in stocks or risk-on

Because of raising bond yields, Fed hiking, US economy taking a pause after peaking, consumer debt at extreme levels, US-CN showing trade muscles, high valuations…whatever you name is correct. But there is something behind the scenes and it is called the uncertainty that Trump has brought with him. The tensions between US and China are real and markets has started

Commodity markets had a volatile week but currently they are rather calm ahead of key events, the FOMC reate decision today and the OPEC meeting next week. Crude is stable just above recent lows while yesterday API reported surprise built up in crude and even bigger rise in gasoline inventories.Corn reacted strongly on bullish Wasde data as market expected increase

Commodities continued to outperform last week except Energy sector, as OPEC and Russia were heard they may fill the gap left by Venezuela. As risk off mood spread into some Agri sectors more markets turned south. The strong dollar didn`t hurt the precious metals much, especially gold is holding well as uncertainty around the Italian government looms. Good Luck and

Commodities had a pretty strong few days as the Brent driven oil rally helped to lift prices in most of the sectors. The strengthening dollar hit precious metals the most, but the selloff wasn’t particularly heavy. Extreme speculative positioning however represents significant threat of possible volatile corrections for many commodities. Oil The oil market was primarily driven by the withdrawal

Commodity markets were driven last week by energy sector and industrial metals due to US sanctions on Russian interest (especially aluminium and nickel prices were pushed higher). However beginning of the week we could see weakening oil bulls and an intensive correction in some metals due to easing pressure from US on Mr. Deripaska’s Rusal, the second biggest aluminium producer

Commodities were pushed higher last week by weaker dollar and geopolitical tension, namely US-Russian as the most significant. However the grain sector was supported weather factors, especially in the US mid-west. Sugar prices were further depressed by bigger than expected Thai crop despite speculators trimmed some shorts on profit taking. Crude Oil The recent US attacks on Syrian chemical weapon