Sports Wagering Expectations

This football season has been a very interesting
one to say the least. The good news is if you are here reading
this informative article, hopefully we have nixed the notion
of 70% winners, inside information, and so called "locks".

We like to think with the growing popularity of madduxsports.com
more and more players are learning realistic expectations,
discipline, and are now focusing on a long term goal, yet
it only takes one lousy day in the NFL or College for uniformed
bettors to shoot us an email and say your picks suck.

The disappointing part is while most of these emails are
coming from first time uneducated buyers, quite a few are
from players that have bought our daily Saturday and Sunday
picks on more than 1 occasion, and have enjoyed remarkable
results betting those picks.

An example was this gentleman in particular who had bought
picks on 4 previous Saturday or Sunday's. We had gone 5-0,
4-1, 3-2, and 3-2 respectfully for him. Than last Saturday
we had a disappointing 1-4 day and this customer wrote in
and said "What is going on, I lost my shirt today? I can make
better picks than this; I am not paying you guys to lose me
money. How the hell can someone go 1-4?" This coming from
the same guy that after the first 2 days signing up with us
said "your picks are great you have a customer for the rest
of the season!" Amazing how someone's point of view can change
on a week to week basis. In our defense 4 of the 5 picks were
steamed by the Wiseguys on game day so sharp money did agree
with our selections, we just happened to have the games go
against us that particular day.

We took a look back at the records and saw that this individual
had purchased picks from us 5 times. 4 out of the 5 days (80%
of the time) we had profited, and overall we had won 64% of
the picks, yet he was still not satisfied. We told this customer
and all customers that sign up after a losing day that we
don't judge results on a week to week basis and you should
have that same outlook if you are serious about making money
sports betting long term. To illustrate this further we wanted
to give you an idea of what you can expect on a typical Saturday
or Sunday when we have our normal 5 football picks. Here is
the break down of our handicappers at Maddux Sports picking
58% winners for a football season.

5-0 6.56%
4-1 23.76%
3-2 34.41%
2-3 24.92%
1-4 9.02%
0-5 1.30%

From the table above you will see that about 35% of the time
we are not going to profit and that is the realization you
have to acknowledge if you are a daily pick buyer. This may
come to a shock to some of you but it is a cold hard fact.
This is one of the many reasons why we recommend that all
players get signed up for the full season package. It will
save you money in the long run and will help keep you on course
when we have those dreaded 1-4 days. There will be losing
streaks along the way, but the winning streaks will outnumber
the losing ones and being a full season member you won't "give
up" and will be aboard when those winning streaks occur to
recoup losses. The good news is that about 60% of the time
you are going to profit and if you stay focused with a strong
money management plan, wield a little self control, and concentrate
on the long term, you are going to be up a nice chunk of change
at seasons end.

Now we recognize that not everyone has the bankroll, persistence,
or desire to bet daily. We also understand that a lot of you
do this as a recreational hobby and are not too concerned
with money management, discipline, and long term goals. We
have no problem with those players and respect them for their
honestly. You realize that our picks are long term winners
and you are better off paying us a small fee so you can have
a good chance to win more often than not on Saturday or Sunday
opposed to you making the picks on your own. Most of those
people don't complain after a losing day but if you are one
of those people that are considering it you will be pointed
to this article before and after the fact. We waste too much
time answering emails from 1st time buyers that have unrealistic
expectations after a losing day, and to solve this matter
this article was written.

GAMES OF THE
YEAR/MONTH

A couple times a week during the football season Maddux Sports
will release stronger 4 unit and 5 unit rated picks. Often
these games will be labeled as Big Ten Game of the Year, AFC
Game of the Year, or College Football Game of the Month, etc.
Like all over the website, these are not locks, or 100% picks.
Every time one of these picks lose some really stupid emails
come flooding in to our inbox. Your picks suck, I can pick
better, how the hell is that a game of the year....

The difference between a 3 unit and 4 unit plays is a couple
percentage points. You should not be betting 10 times more
on the 4s or 5s, they should be 1-2% more than your normal
bets on our 3 unit/normal plays. For an easy example if you
are betting $300 on the 3 unit picks, a 4 unit play is $400,
and 5 unit would be $500, not $5,000!!!

From a 4 unit to a 5 unit rating the picks are virtual identical,
but there is often a little tidbit, key number, or strong
situation to push it up to the 5 unit level. To take an example
from a recent Saturday in college football, we had strong
situations on 3 underdogs. Florida, Washington State, &
Iowa where all very strong underdog plays that fit into a
situation we have used with success for years. Iowa was the
only line that was +10 during the week and was given a 5 unit
rating (big ten game of the year) and just happened to be
the loser of the group while the other 2 won easily.

If Washington State or Florida would have been +10 they would
have also been 5 unit picks, although the chances of that
happening where everything lines up on a Saturday and we have
three 5 unit selections would be quite rare and has never
happened. If Iowa never gets to 10, we have a 4 unit pick
at +9.5 and no one is complaining. If you bet Iowa for 5 units
and didn't get +10, that is a no no, as it would have never
been a 5 unit play at +9.5.

The point is, yeah it sucks that 5 unit games lose but long
term they win at a slightly higher rate and you need to use
proper money management instead of going all in and getting
crushed if they lose. As for that Saturday example we won
5 of the 8 picks overall and a very healthy profit was turned
for those that used proper money management.

There are no guarantees in sports betting, we cant forecast
a team fumbling a kickoff and the other team running it back
in for a TD, or a starting QB being hurt on the first play
of the game. What we can is make solid bets and rate the picks
accordingly to give members the most profitable year at seasons
end.

Most ask than why label any pick a game of the year? The
answer is in the end this is still a business and marketing
of picks within reason should be expected from a smart capper/businessman.

A simple adage we like to use at madduxsports.com is "We
don't ask for pats on the back when we win, just as we don't
expect our balls busted when we lose." If you are one of those
people who judge results on a week to week basis we are probably
not the service for you and sports betting in general is probably
something you might want to reconsider. But if you share the
same long term outlook and goals as Maddux Sports, we can
lead you to a very successful betting career.

Click
here to get on board with a long term winning
sports handicapping service.

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