Critics from Utah, Nevada and Oklahoma announced their winners and so far the most surprising development has been the unexpected Argo-love from these groups. It is a great film, one that deserves all this recognition, I simply didn't expect the critics to go so studiofilmy (Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Life of Pi etc.) on us this year, even the 'edgy' choice (The Master) has a 40M pricetag. What is still a mystery - especially with this rather mainstream path the critics embarked on - how Lincoln is still constantly overlooked in BP/BD. The ones who seemed to gain the most buzz in recent days are Ben Affleck, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Rian Johnson(Looper) and Chris Terrio(Argo) who shockingly enough, now has more wins under his belt then presumed frontrunner Tony Kushner (Lincoln).

December 18

Toronto went with The Master and some inspired choices in the acting categories, Gina Gershon (Killer Joe) in particular has been spectacularly under the radar so far. After several runners-up honors, Denis Lavant
won his first award of the season...it was about damn time. Also,
Dallas announced its winners and was the first group of the season to recognize Lincoln as the Best Picture of 2012, meanwhile Florida went with Argo.

December 17

Even though Chicago also went with Zero Dark Thirty, critics started to spread the love. One of the oldest groups, the Kansas City Film Critics Circle, gave a big boost to The Master
, a film that definitely needs these minor victories to have a BP-worthy perception
in Oscar voters' minds, especially without significant love from the
Actors (=Screen Actors Guild) who still represent the most dominant
branch in the Academy. Meanwhile, Indiana went quirky and recognized the so-far-absent Safety Not Guaranteed. Also, Helen Hunt FINALLY won something for her career-best performance in The Sessions, so hopefully John Hawkes is next. St. Louis and Southeastern Film Critics opted for Argo, so now I guess the only question remains : where is Lincoln ?
I have no doubt it is the Oscar-frontrunner and it has been doing
spectacularly well in acting and writing categories, but why hasn't it
won anything in BP/BD yet ? It's not like the critics went all indie
this year, quite the contrary (Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Life of Pi).

San Diego and Las Vegas spiced things up a bit, also the first few 'big ones' started announcing their nominations.

December 10

Washington Film Critics agreed on the supposed frontrunners and went with Zero Dark Thirty, Kathryn Bigelow, Jessica Chastain and Daniel Day-Lewis, they also gave Anne Hathaway her first prominent award of the season and after his co-stars got the much-needed push from the LAFCA yesterday, Philip Seymour Hoffman got his from Washington today. What is also interesting that Looper won again, so it probably has a bigger and more passionate fanbase than I gave it credit for, meanwhile David O. Russell won
another adapted screenplay award and in my opinion, he will have to
settle with a script nomination at the Oscars, too. There is no way he
could beat Tony Kushner and I don't see him as a top5 contender in Best
Director, either, not with Spielberg, Bigelow, Hooper, Affleck, Anderson, Lee, Tarantino in the mix, too.

December 9

So...the Los
Angeles Film Critics definitely spiced things up. Joaquin
Phoenix got a much-needed and well-deserved push from them
today, although Daniel Day-Lewis is still strong and
remains the frontrunner. Also, we FINALLY have a race in Best
Actress : Emmanuelle Riva has just pulled off three
victories including the prestigious Best Actress award of the LA
Film Critics. She was always supposed to be a strong presence in this
stage of the season, so it's nice to see her making a big entrance.
Having said that, Jessica Chastain is probably still a
stronger contender thanks to the remarkable reception of her film.
Early frontrunner Jennifer Lawrence has now officially
entered the race, and winning the LAFCA is definitely a great start.
The Supporting Acting categories are all over the place, although
the Lincoln-duo, Sally Field and Tommy Lee Jones
seem to have the edge at the moment. In the end Field will probably
face off Anne Hathaway who has just won two awards,
both from less prominent online groups, BUT was also the runner-up
for the LAFCA, so she is definitely still strong competition. With
all the fantastic raves the men of The Master received,
I’m glad to see AmyAdams still not
overshadowed. She won her first award this season and started with a
big one, she is now undoubtedly back on track to land her 4th
Oscar nomination. It's also nice to see long-shot contenders Ezra
Miller and Dwight Henry in the mix, but they
will definitely need considerably MORE to stay in the race for the
long run. Meanwhile TonyKushner
(Lincoln) remains the frontrunner in the Best Adapted Screenplay
category, and if Zero Dark Thirty continues to stay as strong as it
is now, I think Mark Boal will take Best Original
Screenplay.

P.S. Christoph
Waltz might not have won a thing, but he was runner-up for
both the LAFCA and BSFC (Boston Society of Film Critics), so he definitely started gaining some
Oscar-buzz even with stiff internal competition (NBR-winner DiCaprio
and apparently spectacular scenestealer Jackson). The
cinematographer of The Master, Mihai Malaimare is
getting well-deserved early praise for his stunning work and though
he will need the guild-nod to be a viable threat for the Oscar, this
is definitely a decent start for him. Meanwhile Tim Burton's
Frankenweenie seems to be the critics' favorite for Best Animated Feature.

December 5

The National Board of Review agreed with the New York critics and gave their top awards to Zero Dark Thirty. Kathryn Bigelow's
film, once considered a wild card contender, is now the early
frontrunner. What is interesting, that no sweep seems to be happening in
the acting categories, not even in Best Actor. As the lead of the Best
Picture frontrunner, Jessica Chastain should be now
officially considered very seriously for the win, and even with stiff
competition, I also think - and have been for a while - that Bradley Cooper won't have trouble sneaking into the top5, either. This early Django-love is definitely a good sign for Quentin Tarantino and Leonardo DiCaprio, but we still need to see the reviews and Box Office to know for sure it won't be a fluke. Ann Dowd's well-deserved victory here was much needed for the long run, but I can't help but wonder that she will be another 'Lesley Manville'. We'll see, for what it's worth, her stunning work speaks for itself. After the NYFCC-shutout Silver Linings Playbook was the biggest gainer here with two important awards and a place in the top10. Argo, Django Unchained and Les Miserables also made the cut, latter even won the Best Ensemble Award. Early frontrunners Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway
have yet to win an award, but then again, it is still VERY early in the
race, their absence is only being brought up because they were expected
to deliver sweeps.

December 3

The New York Film Critics announced
their winners today, raised a lot of questions and confirmed the
status of two frontrunners (Daniel Day-Lewis, Tony Kushner).
So the most burning question might be how the surprising absence of
presumably strong players (Les Miserables, Argo, Silver Linings
Playbook, Life of Pi) will affect the season ? Well, probably
not that much, critics might influence Academy voters, but in the
end, their impact isn't great. The 'Critical Darling of the Year'
rarely matches the 'Academy's Best Picture' and that applies
to all categories, so the likes of Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica
Chastain, Anne Hathaway etc. have nothing to worry
about...for now. Having said that, this is still a prominent award
and exactly what on-paper-fading contenders Rachel Weisz
and Matthew McConaughey needed, and even though I'm
still not convinced former could sneak in in the end, latter seems to
have everything a solid contender could ask for : Box Office, rave
reviews, passionate campaign (Soderbergh-letter), a damn good
'story' (THE comeback) and now even a prestigious early award
.