On Target: More Than Just The Looks

Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. For more from him, you can find his personal musings on his blog RotobuzzGuy.com or follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy. For questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

I understand what time of year it is, but can anyone please tell me why everyone still feels the need to do their best Jim Mora impression every time they hear the word Ďplayoffsí? Seriously. So tired, so overused and frankly, itís actually less funny than a reprise of Dennis Greenís "They are who we thought they were.Ē Surely we can do better, can't we?

But youíre not here to listen to me complain about overused jokes, are you? You want to talk receivers and yardage, targets and receptions, touchdowns and...wait for it...playoffs! Fantasy playoffs, that is. For most leagues, the playoffs began in Week 14 and should carry over for the next two weeks. Lineup decisions are more important than ever and making the right choices could mean the difference between celebrating in the winnerís circle and sitting alone on Sunday anxiously awaiting your fantasy baseball draft. So letís not waste any more time and get to this weekís target leaders.

Top Targets for Week 14

Player Name

Pos

Team

Yards

TD

Pass Att

Targets

Recpt

RZTgts

RZTgt%

Catch %

Target %

Brandon Marshall

WR

CHI

160

1

53

19

10

1

50.0%

52.6%

35.8%

Calvin Johnson

WR

DET

118

0

45

13

10

0

0.0%

76.9%

28.9%

Jeremy Maclin

WR

PHI

104

1

51

13

9

2

40.0%

69.2%

25.5%

Josh Gordon

WR

CLE

86

0

30

12

8

4

44.4%

66.7%

40.0%

Jason Avant

WR

PHI

133

0

51

12

7

2

40.0%

58.3%

23.5%

Steve Smith

WR

CAR

109

0

35

12

7

1

20.0%

58.3%

34.3%

Justin Blackmon

WR

JAX

57

0

43

12

6

0

0.0%

50.0%

27.9%

Roddy White

WR

ATL

117

1

49

11

9

2

22.2%

81.8%

22.4%

Michael Crabtree

WR

SF

93

0

23

11

9

2

66.7%

81.8%

47.8%

Aaron Hernandez

TE

NE

58

2

36

11

8

2

66.7%

72.7%

30.6%

Mike Wallace

WR

PIT

112

2

42

11

7

0

0.0%

63.6%

26.2%

Danario Alexander

WR

SD

88

2

41

11

7

1

25.0%

63.6%

26.8%

Julio Jones

WR

ATL

66

1

49

11

5

2

22.2%

45.5%

22.4%

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

ARI

2

0

39

11

1

0

0.0%

9.1%

28.2%

Andre Johnson

WR

HOU

95

0

36

10

8

0

0.0%

80.0%

27.8%

Rob Housler

TE

ARI

36

0

39

10

7

0

0.0%

70.0%

25.6%

Vincent Jackson

WR

TB

131

1

34

10

6

1

25.0%

60.0%

29.4%

Reggie Wayne

WR

IND

64

1

34

10

6

1

20.0%

60.0%

29.4%

Jimmy Graham

TE

NO

56

0

43

10

5

2

25.0%

50.0%

23.3%

Miles Austin

WR

DAL

46

0

43

10

4

1

33.3%

40.0%

23.3%

Kevin Elliot

WR

JAX

38

0

43

10

3

0

0.0%

30.0%

23.3%

Chris Givens

WR

STL

25

0

39

10

3

1

25.0%

30.0%

25.6%

Tony Scheffler

TE

DET

20

1

45

10

3

1

50.0%

30.0%

22.2%

As expected, especially come fantasy playoff time, a number of the usual suspects remain on this list. They are your go-to guys and should be in your lineup each and every week, regardless of the match-up. You should be relying on them just as their quarterbacks are. Will we see a bad game every now and then? Of course, but the good, most definitely, outweighs the bad.

As for the outliers...

Please remember that the Eagles production this week had as much to do with the opponent being Tampa Bay as it did the Eagles themselves. Being the new number one in town, Jeremy Maclin will likely be seen here in the coming weeks, but itís hard to imagine Jason Avant not being interchangeable with Riley Cooper or some other fill-in wideout. A match-up with the Bengals pass defense next week should hammer this point home.

Josh Gordon saw double-digit targets for just the second time this season and yet still failed to produce double-digit fantasy points (standard league scoring) for the fifth time in his last six games. You might be able to sneak by with him next week when the Browns face the Redskins, but after that, it gets a little more complicated with road games in Denver and Pittsburgh.

With Cecil Shorts out with a concussion, Justin Blackmon saw a major increase in targets again this week. Regardless of the matchup, heíll probably continue to see that many looks if Shorts remains out. However, if Shorts is healthy, you can probably chop that target number in half. And you can probably forget all about Kevin Elliot if Shorts returns.

New favorite target Danario Alexander should no longer be viewed as an outlier. He has appeared here in three of the last four weeks and is now averaging 10 targets, just over six catches, 90 yards and one touchdown per game in that span. In fact, he has out-produced incumbent Malcom Floyd in everything from targets to catches to yardage to touchdowns to target percentage. Alexander is the clear-cut number one on the Chargers and should be started in all formats, even with match-ups against Carolina and the Jets next.

For the record, this was the Aaron Hernandez everyone thought they were drafting when they went reaching too high back in August. In the last two games, heís seen 24 targets and has come away with 16 catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns. You can expect more of the same in the coming weeks. It may be a little tougher against San Francisco next week, but with match-ups against Jacksonville and Miami to finish the year, things are looking pretty sweet.

I think you can expect more of the same from Tony Scheffler who is actually lining up in the slot these days as opposed to his usual tight end spot. Since Matthew Stafford has receivers like Mike Thomas and Brian Robieskie at his disposal, he likes to stick with what he knows, and that means more for Scheffler and Megatron.

Finally, a moment of silence for all those who made that last-minute switch to Chris Givens this week. I donít know who you benched, but Iím willing to bet that the move did not work out in your favor. Itís not like he didnít see the targets, because as you can see he did. It just comes down to reliability and he simply hasnít proven his worth throughout the year. No consistency means little reliability.

No onto the overall...

Targets Percentage Leaderboard

Player Name

Pos

Team

Yards

TD

Pass Att

Targets

Recpt

RZTgts

RZTgt%

Catch %

Target %

Brandon Marshall

WR

CHI

1342

9

407

157

101

16

40.0%

64.3%

38.6%

Reggie Wayne

WR

IND

1220

4

537

163

94

15

27.8%

57.7%

30.4%

A.J. Green

WR

CIN

1151

10

447

134

79

19

33.9%

59.0%

30.0%

Steve Johnson

WR

BUF

776

5

407

117

61

15

29.4%

52.1%

28.7%

Steve Smith

WR

CAR

999

2

394

112

60

11

20.4%

53.6%

28.4%

Wes Welker

WR

NE

1116

4

500

142

95

16

21.9%

66.9%

28.4%

Dwayne Bowe

WR

KC

801

3

406

114

59

4

12.1%

51.8%

28.1%

Michael Crabtree

WR

SF

761

5

346

93

66

7

18.4%

71.0%

26.9%

Andre Johnson

WR

HOU

1209

3

454

122

82

5

12.5%

67.2%

26.9%

Victor Cruz

WR

NYG

1004

9

474

127

76

17

21.5%

59.8%

26.8%

Brian Hartline

WR

MIA

925

1

415

111

62

11

22.0%

55.9%

26.7%

Vincent Jackson

WR

TB

1145

8

423

113

56

16

27.1%

49.6%

26.7%

Larry Fitzgerald

WR

ARI

652

4

504

134

57

18

29.0%

42.5%

26.6%

Calvin Johnson

WR

DET

1546

5

592

157

96

14

15.9%

61.1%

26.5%

Davone Bess

WR

MIA

778

1

415

105

61

5

10.0%

58.1%

25.3%

Jason Witten

TE

DAL

880

1

536

124

92

11

16.9%

74.2%

23.1%

Roddy White

WR

ATL

1140

5

511

118

77

16

21.3%

65.3%

23.1%

Demaryius Thomas

WR

DEN

1197

8

483

110

74

14

18.9%

67.3%

22.8%

Anquan Boldin

WR

BAL

828

4

451

99

58

8

20.0%

58.6%

22.0%

Mike Williams

WR

TB

736

7

423

92

46

13

22.0%

50.0%

21.7%

Sidney Rice

WR

SEA

658

7

341

74

45

10

23.3%

60.8%

21.7%

Mike Wallace

WR

PIT

728

8

481

104

59

13

20.6%

56.7%

21.6%

Percy Harvin

WR

MIN

677

3

401

85

62

5

9.6%

72.9%

21.2%

Greg Olsen

TE

CAR

691

5

394

83

54

11

20.4%

65.1%

21.1%

Torrey Smith

WR

BAL

753

7

451

95

43

6

15.0%

45.3%

21.1%

Justin Blackmon

WR

JAX

614

3

459

96

45

6

12.5%

46.9%

20.9%

Jeremy Kerley

WR

NYJ

728

2

404

84

52

8

18.6%

61.9%

20.8%

Tony Gonzalez

TE

ATL

831

7

511

106

81

15

20.0%

76.4%

20.7%

Julio Jones

WR

ATL

997

7

511

105

63

17

22.7%

60.0%

20.5%

Randall Cobb

WR

GB

777

7

443

91

71

7

12.3%

78.0%

20.5%

Kendall Wright

WR

TEN

555

4

473

97

59

13

22.4%

60.8%

20.5%

Dez Bryant

WR

DAL

1028

9

536

109

75

12

18.5%

68.8%

20.3%

Donnie Avery

WR

IND

706

3

537

109

52

11

20.4%

47.7%

20.3%

Eric Decker

WR

DEN

790

8

483

98

64

20

27.0%

65.3%

20.3%

Marques Colston

WR

NO

889

8

540

106

65

19

23.2%

61.3%

19.6%

Brandon Lloyd

WR

NE

650

4

500

97

57

13

17.8%

58.8%

19.4%

Kyle Rudolph

TE

MIN

412

8

401

77

45

15

28.8%

58.4%

19.2%

Hakeem Nicks

WR

NYG

652

3

474

90

50

17

21.5%

55.6%

19.0%

Owen Daniels

TE

HOU

622

6

454

86

52

8

20.0%

60.5%

18.9%

Jimmy Graham

TE

NO

710

8

540

99

64

13

15.9%

64.6%

18.3%

Miles Austin

WR

DAL

819

5

536

98

55

12

18.5%

56.1%

18.3%

Cecil Shorts

WR

JAX

824

7

459

83

43

10

20.8%

51.8%

18.1%

Andre Roberts

WR

ARI

675

5

504

91

53

7

11.3%

58.2%

18.1%

Jeremy Maclin

WR

PHI

646

5

500

90

53

12

25.0%

58.9%

18.0%

Jermaine Gresham

TE

CIN

636

5

447

80

55

11

19.6%

68.8%

17.9%

Malcom Floyd

WR

SD

775

5

466

83

54

0

0.0%

65.1%

17.8%

Heath Miller

TE

PIT

679

7

481

85

61

20

31.7%

71.8%

17.7%

Antonio Brown

WR

PIT

592

2

481

85

51

0

0.0%

60.0%

17.7%

DeSean Jackson

WR

PHI

700

2

500

88

45

8

16.7%

51.1%

17.6%

Denarius Moore

WR

OAK

678

6

535

93

42

13

19.1%

45.2%

17.4%

Dennis Pitta

TE

BAL

488

5

451

77

50

11

27.5%

64.9%

17.1%

Danny Amendola

WR

STL

576

2

433

73

51

10

22.2%

69.9%

16.9%

Brandon Myers

TE

OAK

728

4

535

90

70

13

19.1%

77.8%

16.8%

James Jones

WR

GB

562

9

443

74

46

13

22.8%

62.2%

16.7%

Josh Morgan

WR

WAS

429

1

362

60

42

5

11.6%

70.0%

16.6%

Donald Jones

WR

BUF

443

4

407

67

41

12

23.5%

61.2%

16.5%

Golden Tate

WR

SEA

492

7

341

56

37

10

23.3%

66.1%

16.4%

Jacob Tamme

TE

DEN

473

2

483

79

49

6

8.1%

62.0%

16.4%

Lance Moore

WR

NO

848

4

540

88

53

11

13.4%

60.2%

16.3%

Nate Washington

WR

TEN

648

4

473

76

39

7

12.1%

51.3%

16.1%

Kenny Britt

WR

TEN

520

3

473

76

40

10

17.2%

52.6%

16.1%

The return of Jake Locker to the Tennessee lineup has been a downer for Chris Johnson owners, but given the fact that he hasnít thrown the ball fewer than 35 times in each of his last three games, weíre seeing a boon for the Titans receivers. Itís taken nearly all season long, but Kenny Britt and Nate Washington have both managed to find themselves on the TPL this week. As the Titans try to finish out the season with respectability, you can bet that the two of them, along with Kendall Wright, will continue to see a high number of targets each week.

Word on the street says that Dez Bryant is 50/50 to play again this season. If thatís really the case, then you can expect to see Miles Austinís target percentage get a boost, but more importantly, Jason Wittenís red zone looks should increase.

With Dwayne Bowe likely headed for IR with a rib injury, you can probably expect Dexter McClusterís target percentage to increase Ė heís been on the TPL a few times before Ė and look for Terrance Copper to see more work. However, I donít see either having much relevance in fantasy, since the Chiefs will likely lean on the running game still.

Owners of Brandon Marshall are probably disturbed by the possibility of going through the fantasy playoffs without Jay Cutler under center, but even when the Chicago's quarterback was out earlier, Marshall still saw the bulk of the targets from Jason Campbell.

And finally, letís review some of the number twos weíve been watching as they attempt to close the gap in target percentage with their teamís top wide receiver...

As mentioned before, Danario Alexander has actually surpassed Malcom Floyd in target percentage over the last five weeks. While he hasnít shown up here yet due to missing the first eight games of the season, heís still the new number one in San Diego.

Eric Decker continues to hover around the 20-percent mark but remains firmly behind Demaryius Thomas. While Decker saw an increase in targets this week, he still hasnít seen double-digit looks since Week 9.

Miamiís Davone Bess continues to close the gap between him and Brian Hartline and has now seen more targets than Hartline three times in the last four games. Unfortunately, neither receiver gets a whole lot of red zone looks, as the Fins donít get to spend a whole lot of time there, but with upcoming match-ups against Jacksonville, Buffalo and New England, Bess just might have a little flex appeal.

Mike Williams still makes for a solid number two, but Vincent Jackson has a stranglehold on being Josh Freemanís favorite target. Yes, last week, Williams saw more looks, but the overall target percentage is where the truth lies.

Week 14 Matchup to Watch: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints Ė The last time these two teams squared off, Drew Brees and Josh Freeman combined for 797 passing yards and seven touchdowns. The Saints give up an average of 285 yards per game through the air, while the number is 312 per for the Bucs. This is a dream match-up for the fantasy playoffs, so if youíve got any of the primary receivers from this game on your team, you better make sure they are active this week.

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Have a question or need some advice from Howard Bender? Follow @rotobuzzguy on Twitter, or feel free to e-mail him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com