March 27, 2012

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2005-07 Precon Championships: Round 4 and the Leaderboard

by Dredd77

Welcome back to the season’s most exciting Magic: the Gathering event, the 2005-07 Preconstructed Championships! We’re now halfway through the Rosewater Conference’s other Division, the Tinsman, and we’ve had some fantastic matchups. Sadly for most, the overriding principle here is the Highlander ultimatum: there can be only one. Of the eight decks that draw into the Tinsman, four of them have been cut their walking papers, with a further three to follow this coming Saturday. It’s a harsh business, but to lessen the severity is to lessen the glory.

Our first matchup saw Coldsnap’s Aurochs Stampede take on Ninth Edition’s aura-filled Custom Creatures. Ninth Edition is widely regarded as the season’s underdog, but do we have the makings of a mono-Green Cinderella story here? The set’s lone representative in the Nagle Division, the Red landkill deck World Aflame crashed out in the opening round, and few put any more hope in this one given that creature auras are generally dismissed out of hand. Only about one-third of the field guessed this one right, but amongst those that did we found a few insightful observations. “The only good start the aurochs deck can have,” noted Scorium, “is by playing an early ritual into a big auroch, and that’s not enough against some of the auras that Custom has.” Said Aaro, “Custom Creatures. Against a removal-heavy deck, I might reconsider, but Aurochs is pretty straightforward beats.” As it happens, that’s what it took- Custom Creatures put its powerful auras on some fairly basic creatures, and ran right over the Stampede.

In the second match, Snowscape was dispatched by Future Sight’s Future Shock, but the Red/Green beats deck needed three games to do it. Jenesis summed it up thusly, saying “All the snow permanents in the world won’t help Rimefeather Owl punch through a wall of Thornweald Archers, and the deck is pretty mediocre beyond that.” Indeed, the snow permanents didn’t hinder Future Shock nearly as much as simply tappers, regenerators, and a Drift of the Dead. Blaven_blave called it when he said, “I think Future Shock will just stomp Snowscape down.” Thanks to Baru, Fist of Krosa that’s precisely what happened.

Judging by the predictions, the day’s other upset went to Future Sight’s other deck in the field, Fate Blaster. Ravnica’s Selesnya United was certainly the crowd favourite, heralding from a set with fond memories for many. On another day, our predictors might well have had the right of it. Said Scorium, “Selesnya rocks, and the other deck can only win with the Magus, the other cards in that deck are useless.” Willis terry gave the guild the nod on the basis of having “so many tokens to overrun with.” Alas for most, it was not to be- Fate Blaster edged out the Conclave with a very long, deep Game One, then stormed to victory when mana trouble landed the Selesnya powerless to stop them from a rout.

The day’s final pairing saw Azorius Ascendant take on Ixidor’s Legacy of Planar Chaos. Most opted for the slow, Blue/White skies deck over the slow mono-Blue morph deck, and few were disappointed. “I think it’ll be close,” said Jenesis, “but I give it to the deck with more evasion.” Indeed, with few ways to answer the Azorius air force, Ixidor’s found itself on the receiving end of a two-game beating.

After the wins were tallied, we found the prediction table with a tie at the top of the table as Aaro has caught the high-flying Kyle Mueting. Last season’s winner, Icehawk, pulled off a four-for-four which put him right back up within grasping distance. Still, it’s a tight pack, and with so much yet to play it could be anyone’s name on the trophy at the end of the competition. Here’s how we have the standings:

As always, should there be any discrepancy, please let us know and we’ll be happy to investigate! Now, for this weekend’s games, we have the following three to predict:

So we’ll want your pick from each of the three games above, and you’ll have until the round goes live this coming Saturday to post them. Good luck to all!

Future Shock has some removal, but all it will take is one armor to pop and Customized creatures are going to run wild.

19: Custom Creatures.

20. Azorius Ascendant. It’s got draw. It has some control. It’s WU. If it had G, I’d have no choise but to throw my lot in it. Though where Bant failed me in the prior championships, I have a feeling Azorius is going to be here for a while. I like its variety and the mana-fixing lands it brings to the table, so I don’t expect any mana trouble from it.

26. Azorius Ascendant. It may be the underdog, but to quote the deck, “The proud armada of white and blue fliers contained in the “Azorius Ascendant” deck will soar over the battlefield right into your opponent’s face.” Customize your creatures all you want, it won’t stop the Azorius’s bombing runs.

Well, I didn’t pick Future Shock in the previous round, but I think I like its matchup against Custom Creatures. And I have a soft spot in my heart for Azorius Ascendant… I don’t own many decks from this era, but this is one of them and it almost always puts on a good show, so…

This is assuming all the pilots play optimally. Future Shock can certainly blow out Customs with a Ghostfire in response to Blanchwood Armor, but can’t do much about an already Armored-up creature. If Azorius plays to its conservative guild’s namesake, it should have tappers and bounce in reserve to deal with any creature that becomes too troublesomely big, which is essentially all Customs can field in this matchup, its Treetop Bracers no longer a substantial advantage.

In game 19, FS has the advantage because each individual creature/card is stronger. Short of an Armor actually hitting, FS can take the game simply due to being more focused of a deck. That isn’t to say it can’t lose, but it also has less chance of bursting mana and then drawing unneeded lands.

Game 20 is going to be close, but Azorius has a slight advantage due to high toughness creatures. It can often stall out, even around a single resolving Riddle of Lightning, and its lower CMCs and flying creatures give it a damage edge. Additionally, it has more “bomb” cards that cause fits against Fate Blaster than FB does against it.

If my predictions are right, then FS’s strong creatures will just outpower AA’s defenses. To say nothing of the fact that it gets out of the gate significantly faster.

Below is my analysis for my own amusement.
If my game 19 prediction is wrong but game 20 is right, then AA is going to take game 21. Custom Creatures has nothing to stop the tapdowns, and can often get “virtually” 2-for-1’d by AA.

If my game 19 prediction is right but game 20 is wrong, then FS still takes game 21, because Fate Blaster has very little that can stand up to the high power beatdown.

If my predictions for both 19 and 20 are wrong, then Custom Creatures is going to take game 21, because it gets out of the gate faster.

Reason: because a 40 cards deck is usually better (faster) than a 60 cards deck. I don’t think that the other decks will be fast enough to deal with card advantage + mana ramp + big creatures (aka everything that makes green so cool).

Of course, I could be terribly wrong 🙂 But this is my attempt to make up for the game I missed and hopefully climb a little higher on the ladder.

Game 19: Trained Armorodon against Nessian Courser. Craw Wurm against Skizzik Surger. Both decks may look very much alike, but things ain’t so. CC can only win with the Armor because the other creatures it have are too small, and it doesn’t have removal, Shock has some removal, and the best card in the entire history of magic cards: Nacatl War-Pride so this time I’m rooting for Future Shock to the victoty..
Game 20: I said it before and I will say again. Fate Blaster has a lot of cards that don’t do anything, and in the other side, is facing a very good precon with flyers, card draw, and tappers. It’s not to hard to foresee that the Azorius will emerge victorius.
Game 26: Even if the Azorius are fighting some Blanchwood armored creatures, they can tap them, and win in the air.

Ok, I promise I haven’t read the results yet. I didn’t see this post when it came up earlier this week so I’ve been waiting to predict. I predict Future Shock will go against Fate Blaster and Fate Blaster will win it. Here’s hoping.