June 18, 2013

Hagan leads all potential challengers

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of North
Carolina voters finds a tight, though slightly Democratic-leaning, Senate race
brewing for 2014. Senator Kay Hagan, who has a 41% approval rating compared to
42% who disapprove, is leading all likely Republican challengers by margins of
4%-9%. However, she has failed to secure 50% of the vote in any of the
hypothetical races, showing this race could get even tighter.

Within the
Republican Party, a clear consensus has not yet formed on who should represent
them in the Senate race, with the plurality of respondents (27%) saying they
were undecided or favored a candidate not listed. Representative Virginia Foxx
currently has a clear lead over the rest of the field, taking in 23% of the
vote, a good bit above the next most popular contender, State Senator Phil
Berger, who received 11%. NC Speaker of the House Thom Tillis and US
Representative Renee Ellmers tied for third with 9% of the vote each. The rest
of the candidates were, in order, Jim Cain (8%), Greg Brannon (7%), Mark Harris
(4%), and Lynn Wheeler (3%).

Unfortunately
for Republicans, Foxx looks like one of their less likely options to take
Hagan’s seat next year. Hagan currently leads Foxx 46% to 39%, including a lead
of 48% to 34% with women. Foxx, however, is the preferred choice of
independents, leading Hagan by a margin of 41% to 33%. Republicans’ second
choice, Berger, has slightly better odds, down only 44% to 40% to Hagan, and
leading 48% to 32% with independents. However, Berger’s unfavorable ratings are
higher than his favorable ratings across the board, including a 7%/24% split
with independents and a 17%/24% split with Republicans.

“Thom
Tillis may officially be in the Senate race now but Republican voters are still
shopping around for a different candidate,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Right now Virginia Foxx is the candidate they would
most like to see make the race.”

PPP surveyed 500 registered
voters between June 12-14, 2013, including 374 Republican primary voters. The
margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 4.4% and the margin of error for
the Republican primary sample is +/- 5.1%. This poll was not authorized or paid
for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 55%Man................................................................. 45%

Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 43%Republican...................................................... 35%Independent/Other.......................................... 22%

Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 14%30 to 45........................................................... 24%46 to 65........................................................... 41%Older than 65.................................................. 21%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 50%Man................................................................. 50%

Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.18 to 45........................................................... 36%46 to 65........................................................... 33%Older than 65.................................................. 31%

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