In brief

Uncertainty about how and when a transition of power away from the president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, will take place is the main risk to political stability in 2019-23. Kazakhstan will continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy, balancing relations with Russia, China and the West. We forecast average annual real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2019-23, driven by the extractive sector. Capital spending on infrastructure will be substantial, driven by government and Chinese investment.