Shorts Keen To Target Dell Off Of Earnings-Driven After-Hours Trade

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) is due to report its Q2 results after the closing bell tonight. Analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.45 per share on revenue of $14.65 billion.

In looking back at DELL's historical session-to-session performance, we've found the stock has outpaced its after-hours moves in next-day regular session trading following 21 of its last 34 earnings events.

Looking deeper into the performance data, DELL is about evenly mixed in its performance in both directions between the sessions. It has seen an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 16 of the 34 quarters we've tracked, nine times adding to its evening gain in next-day trade, or 56% of the time, and reversing its advance in seven events. DELL has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 18 of the 34 quarters we've tracked, adding to its negative trade 12 times, or 67% of the time, in next-day action and reversing direction six times.

On May 22, 2012, DELL tumbled 12% in night trade on the back of a Q1 miss. The stock cratered lower the next day, ending the May 23 regular session off 17.1%.

On Feb. 21, 2012, DELL shed 4.6% in after-hours trade after missing earnings expectations. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, ending the Feb. 22 regular session off 5.8%.

On Nov. 15, 2011, DELL shed 1.4% in evening trade after beating Q3 expectations but also noting it was trending to the lower end of its revenue outlook. The stock added to its negative trade the next day, ending down 3.2%.

On Aug. 16, 2011, DELL declined 7.5% in night trade after beating on Q2 EPS, meeting on revenue, and revising its revenue growth forecast lower. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, ending the Aug. 17 regular session off 10.1%.

On May 17, 2011, DELL advanced 4.9% in evening trade after topping Q1 earnings expectations and meeting on revenue. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the May 18 regular session up 5.3%.

On Feb. 15, 2011, DELL firmed 5.4% in evening trade after meeting Q4 revenue expectations and beating on earnings. The stock soared higher the following day, rising 11.8% by the close on Feb. 16.

On Nov. 18, 2010, DELL jumped 5% in night trade on the back of better-than-expected Q3 EPS and revenue results that were shy of estimates. The stock lost the bulk of its upside the next day, closing the Nov. 19 regular session up 1.6%.

On May 20, 2010, DELL shed 2.9% in evening trade after besting Q1 estimates. The stock headed further south the next day, closing the May 21 regular session down 6.7%.

On Feb. 18, 2010, the stock fell 5.1% in after-hours trading despite a Q4 beat. The stock fell 6.7% the next day.

On Nov. 19, 2009, DELL was hit for a 6.2% decline in evening action after missing Street estimates for Q3. The stock slumped deeper in the red the following day, ending the Nov. 20 regular session down 9.9%.

On Aug. 27, 2009, DELL advanced 1.5% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations. The stock edged just higher the next day, rising 1.7% in the Aug. 28 regular session.

On May 28, 2009, DELL edged up 1.4% in evening trade on the back of better-than-expected earnings and revenue just shy of expectations. The stock lost some of its gain the next day, ending the May 29 regular session up a more modest 0.7%.

On Feb. 26, 2009, DELL advanced 2.6% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 revenue expectations but beating on earnings. The stock added to its gains the following day, ending the Feb. 27 regular session up 3.9%.

On Nov. 20, 2008, DELL advanced 5.9% in after-hours trade after topping earnings expectations but also missing on revenue. The stock turned south the next day, losing 5.2% by the Nov. 21 regular session close.

On Aug. 28, 2008, DELL tumbled 10% in after-hours trade after missing earnings expectations. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the Aug. 29 regular session down 13.8%.

On May 29, 2008, the stock gained 9.5% during evening trading after beating Q1 earnings expectations. The gain was trimmed to 5.7% the next day.

On Feb. 28, 2008, DELL declined 1.2% in after-hours trade after reporting Q4 results below expectations. The stock added to its downside in the Feb. 29 regular session, losing 4.7% by the close.

On Nov. 29, 2007, the stock fell 9.8% during evening hours after the company tops the Q3 sales estimate but misses by a penny with EPS. The stock fell 12.8% the next day.

On Aug. 30, 2007, DELL edged up 0.4% after topping Q2 expectations. However, shares gave back those gains and a little more the next day. It closed the regular session down 0.7%.

On May 31, 2007, DELL jumped 5.3% in night trade after beating Q1 expectations and announcing job cuts. However, shares couldn't hold onto that momentum and cut back its gains the next day. Shares ended the regular session up 1.4%.

On March 1, 2007, the stock fell 1.8% in the evening session after reporting lower than expected revenue but beating on EPS. Shares nosed up 0.7% the next day.

On November 21, 2006, DELL jumped 8.6% in night trade after topping Q3 earnings expectations and meeting on sales. Shares rose further the next day, closing the regular session up 9.3%.

On Aug. 17, 2006, DELL dropped 5.2% in after hours when the company matched Q2 expectations but disclosed an informal SEC inquiry into stock options. The shares regained some ground the next day, ending the regular session down 2.8%.

On May 18, 2006, DELL firmed 4.3% in the evening session after reporting in line and saying it expects Q2 to look similar to Q1. The stock gained by a slimmer 2.5% the next day.

On February 16, 2006, DELL eased 0.8% in night trade after it beat Q4 estimates but guides Q1 in line to slightly lower than expected. The shares dropped further the next day, ending the regular session down 4.9%.

On Nov. 10, 2005, DELL was down 1% in after-hours trade after the company matched Q3 expectations and guided mostly in line for Q4. It turned to the plus-side in regular session play on Nov. 11 and ended the day with a slim 0.6% rise.

DELL slid 7.6% on the night of August 11, 2005 after matching EPS targets but falling short on revenue, and guiding Q3 revenue below the Street. It narrowed that loss a bit, to down 7.4%, in the August 12 regular session.

On May 12, 2005 DELL advanced 2.6% in evening trade after the company reported in-line EPS, revenue shy of expectations, and guided in line to higher. It followed that upside move with a firmer jump to the plus-side on May 13, rising 7.4% in the regular session.

On Feb. 10, 2005, DELL declined 3.3% in night trade after reporting in-line sales, better-than-expected EPS, and a slightly weak outlook. The stock added modestly to its downside the next day, losing 3.8% by the Feb. 11 closing bell.

On Nov. 11, 2004 DELL gained 2.1% in night trade after the company reported in-line results and guidance. The stock surged higher in next-day trade, closing out the Nov. 12 regular session up 8.5%.

On Aug. 12, 2004 DELL added 2.6% in after-hours trade after the company reported in-line results and guidance. It closed the Aug. 13 regular session up a more aggressive 4.2%.

On May 13, 2004 DELL slid 3.1% in night trade following the company's better-than-expected results and in-line guidance. It narrowed its declines slightly the next day, closing bell-to-bell play down 3%.

DELL gained 1.3% the night of Feb. 12, 2004 on matched revenue expectations and better-than-expected EPS. It added 2.9% by close of the Feb. 13 regular session.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.