somitomi wrote:because I don't agree with Sabrar on PR safeclaims being bastard. They don't give that much information to scum and the whole premise of the game is that scum has more info than town anyway. I don't see it causing too much harm either though.

Did you consider the fact that town is usually disinclined to lynch a PR-claim in a game with lots of VT-s?

Vicarin wrote:Haven't got my simulation in front of me anymore, but I think from rough estimates that the chance of having 3 of a particular PR is <10% anyway, so this piece of information probably won't be new for scum. Maybe Sabrar can crunch his numbers for the exact chance.

It's around 4.4% if my logic is sound. I've got bitten by worse odds so I wouldn't discard it that easily.

The incredibly silly comment by him in his first post made me go and check: this is the 3rd time I could find that he's voted in his first post, the first time being Refrigerator Mafia, and the 2nd being Chaos Mafia, both with him scum. Compare his first posts in those to his initial post in Meta Mafia (similarish semi-open setup to this) where he immediately starts delving into analyzing the possible setups, putting out a fair bit of useful content by himself, instead of jumping straight into a random vote. Given his 1st post content in that game, I'd have expected him to do some crunching of probable town setups, or at least comment on your probabilities.

Thought that was a decent enough reason to go to a vote while everyone else was sitting around random voting

somitomi wrote:because I don't agree with Sabrar on PR safeclaims being bastard. They don't give that much information to scum and the whole premise of the game is that scum has more info than town anyway. I don't see it causing too much harm either though.

Did you consider the fact that town is usually disinclined to lynch a PR-claim in a game with lots of VT-s?

No, but I don't remember you (or anyone else) mentioning it before. Fair point though.

Vicarin wrote:I'm probably also unfortunately reading a bit into the presence of Gojoe posts at times that would match up with the first scenario happening. I don't want to try to draw conclusions from them, but when you notice their presence (like you did in Chaos with regards to me probably being permanently dead), you can't help but to have them color your views...

The possibility space for why someone is posting in GoJoe is so vast that any conclusion you get from timing is more likely confirmation bias then actual evidence. Your post-death deluge of spoilers was a rare and blatant exception.

"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

Vicarin wrote:True, but at least he's given his reasoning. You want to share your logic for the suit claim or are you just going to keep claiming it is clear-cut without any basis for it? I'd prefer to see faulty reasoning that I can check rather than a blanket statement.

And you're just going to leave it at "Yes"?

I've given my reasoning. I think it allows scum less flexibility. It's also not something I particularly about. Trying to convince others of optimal strategy is a waste of time. (see: pyramid vs reverse pyramid discussion in stellaris).

Regarding playstyle:

Spoiler:

HBC | Zyth wrote:Regarding my play style: I usually get flack for this, because it makes people paranoid, but I literally choose a random play style (among a set of them) before the start of the game. Ranmaru (EGW) can confirm this. Here are a few games to get the gist of the basic aspects though if you want to skim through 'em. Necromafia was pretty similar to my start here.

This game uses the same playstyle if you'd like a reference. I call it "wakizashi": short and to the point.

Sabrar wrote:@Zen: what are your current reads?

You and plytho are likely town. That's all I have to offer atm. As always though, I'll have an in depth read list once my opinions are more solid.

Vicarin wrote:I'm probably also unfortunately reading a bit into the presence of Gojoe posts at times that would match up with the first scenario happening. I don't want to try to draw conclusions from them, but when you notice their presence (like you did in Chaos with regards to me probably being permanently dead), you can't help but to have them color your views...

The possibility space for why someone is posting in GoJoe is so vast that any conclusion you get from timing is more likely confirmation bias then actual evidence. Your post-death deluge of spoilers was a rare and blatant exception.

Yeah, probably. I can't just remove the feeling that I'm getting though...

@Zenii: your play style in the linked game is quite different to this game; you drive the discussion and post plenty in the linked game, while in this we're having to prod you a bunch in order to get tiny amounts of information. Hell, you did a quadruple post in that game. I'm not buying that as an explanation.

Quite a few people being pretty damn quiet right now, is there really that little to discuss?

bessie: usual welcome for new player, anti suit claim, nothing that looks like her usual tunneling other than maybe some residual antagonism vs Vicarin from last game. neutral

BoomFrog: don't like the "I'm okay with modkills" comment. his reason on it not changing the balance doesn't sound right instinctively, but I'd have to crunch the numbers to be sure. votes SuperJedi for his RV. suit claim with proper order by scum hunting. answer to Sabrar on the modkills comment, basically looks like he didn't read the setup info in the OP, which also explains his confusion regarding wam's "irony" post. reason against suit claiming which leads back to the scum hunting post, little touchy about Sabrar, discussion with several players, warns Vicarin about metagaming the GoJoe thread. Some of early posts where he missed OP info made me a little nervous about him, but he seems to be settling in now. slightly townie

Mark: rv Sabrar, a bit unsure of Sabrar's idea on scum safe claims, agrees to suit claim anyway. Seems to formulate it better when asked by BoomFrog. Don't know if the first couple of posts were newbie unsureness or fake scum newbie unsureness. neutral

mpolo: dubious of suit claim, figures late claiming scum could fake it or get more info. insufficient data

plytho: rv Sabrar, gives Sabrar town read based off his mod question, questions Vicarin about his interpretation it, then indulges bessie and wam in further details on his interpretation. slightly townie

(cynical view here: he's covering for Sabrar a lot, up to and including the rv)

Sabrar: number crunches how many PR for town and scum, initiates the claim debate, rv wam. makes the much debated statement about what safe claims scum can have, discussion of "semi-open" to follow, flip-flopping on BoomFrog read, snap town->scum list, pokes Vicarin on his plytho vote. Basically, Sabrar is trying to break the game again, so he's town.

Vicarin: parallel number crunching to Sabrar, rv plytho, explanation of the suit claim benefits, discussion with Sabrar over what safe-claims possible, mod question. also concerned that BoomFrog missed the OP. metagaming the GoJoe thread (always a sucker's game). circles back his vote on plytho with actual reasoning, which upon further research doesn't hold up. first part looks townie, later parts not as much. neutral

wam: rv sabrar, captain obvious setup spec, disagrees with Sabrar on the safe claim possibilities, plays "99 bottles of wine on the wall" with plytho about Sabrar's mod question, co-ordinates read on BoomFrog and SuperJedi, convinced by mpolo to be anti suit claim, town reads of Sabrar, somi, Vicarin. town

Zenii: pro suit claim, debate with Vicarin over posting style. not entirely comfortable, but also not enough of a portfolio on him for an absolute scum read.

Not voteable:BoomFrog, plytho, Sabrar, wam

Don't know:bessie, mpolo, SuperJedi, Vicarin

Votable:Mark, somi, Zen

The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

Vicarin wrote:I'm probably also unfortunately reading a bit into the presence of Gojoe posts at times that would match up with the first scenario happening. I don't want to try to draw conclusions from them, but when you notice their presence (like you did in Chaos with regards to me probably being permanently dead), you can't help but to have them color your views...

The possibility space for why someone is posting in GoJoe is so vast that any conclusion you get from timing is more likely confirmation bias then actual evidence. Your post-death deluge of spoilers was a rare and blatant exception.

Yeah, probably. I can't just remove the feeling that I'm getting though...

@Zenii: your play style in the linked game is quite different to this game; you drive the discussion and post plenty in the linked game, while in this we're having to prod you a bunch in order to get tiny amounts of information. Hell, you did a quadruple post in that game. I'm not buying that as an explanation.

Quite a few people being pretty damn quiet right now, is there really that little to discuss?

That one is a fair bit closer, considering how you spend the first few posts just opening with votes and unvotes and stick to 1 line replies for most of the game (which was just D1 for you). You still did manage to put out a pretty detailed reads list decently quickly though, like you did in Stellaris, so I guess I'm waiting for that, as you've promised? You also apparently almost got lynched for your behavior, so I don't think aiming for a repeat performance of that is a good idea if you're town again

I read you comment as expecting yourself to be on Zenii's list too, BoomFrog, given the : / you put at the end of the line. Guessing you want Zenii to respond before you'll explain what you meant though...

Vicarin, re Gojoe posts, I made the guess that you were permanently dead in Chaos mafia because you were having conversations with others including non-players and the mod. It didn’t have anything to do with the specific timing and a bit with the frequency. I notice Gojoe posts somewhat but try not to let their presence influence me (especially after Newbie New Year), I think awhile ago there was a spoiler labeled “bessie may read now” that I missed because I had automatically blocked seeing spoilers out of my mind.

plytho wrote:

bessie wrote:

plytho wrote:I think Sabrar is likely town because of the no comment reply from LaserGuy. This implies Sabrar hasn't asked the question before and is basing his points on his reasoning about what semi open and non bastard means.

Why couldn't someone of any alignment ask the mod a question by pm, then ask the same question in thread because they want to be seen asking the question, or because they want the answer public, even if they know the answer would be no comment?

Town would (should) state the answer to the question before publicly asking the mod. Or at least not pretend like the answer is something else.

Scum definitely could ask questions privately before asking them publicly and act surprised by the answer. But, I don't this particular question would be asked by scum as they sort of know the answer.

Yes but you’re ignoring my point that perhaps scum wants to be seen publicly asking the question.

Sabrar wrote:Patented meta-reads from yours truly:Town: BoomFrog, moody, mpolo, Vicarin (some of these are less strong than others)Scum-lean: bessie, Zen

I don’t suppose you’d like to share this meta read?

Vicarin wrote:The incredibly silly comment by him in his first post made me go and check: this is the 3rd time I could find that he's voted in his first post, the first time being Refrigerator Mafia, and the 2nd being Chaos Mafia, both with him scum. Compare his first posts in those to his initial post in Meta Mafia (similarish semi-open setup to this) where he immediately starts delving into analyzing the possible setups, putting out a fair bit of useful content by himself, instead of jumping straight into a random vote. Given his 1st post content in that game, I'd have expected him to do some crunching of probable town setups, or at least comment on your probabilities.

Vicarin, I think you’re getting too caught up in trying to find meta tells, “crack the code” on people so to speak. There are, hmm, some people that have skill at meta tells, but in general I think that meta tells are unreliable, and should only be used to reinforce content-based reads. I’m sure I’ve gone on about this before, probably many times, so I can’t link to a post right now because one doesn’t stand out in my mind.

somitomi wrote:

Sabrar wrote:

somitomi wrote:because I don't agree with Sabrar on PR safeclaims being bastard. They don't give that much information to scum and the whole premise of the game is that scum has more info than town anyway. I don't see it causing too much harm either though.

Did you consider the fact that town is usually disinclined to lynch a PR-claim in a game with lots of VT-s?

No, but I don't remember you (or anyone else) mentioning it before. Fair point though.

Hmm, it seems there was a lot of discussion related to this in Newbie New Year, where your tracker claim saved you from being lynched. So I am suspicious that it supposedly never occurred to you.

SuperJedi224 wrote:Nothing in particular, other than that I'm not really used to there being quite this much discussion on Day 1.

SuperJedi, I’m not sure what you expected but this is a newbie game so we would all like to help you out, and we want you to have a good time so that you play with us again! If you are having difficulty finding something to comment on, it might be helpful to make a reads list. Just list everyone and write a sentence or two on what you think of their content so far this game, and any questions you may have for them (see LaserGuy's Newbie Tips in the opening post for sorting posts by author). Even better, arrange your list from towniest player to scummiest player. I like ordered lists because they force you to make a judgment on everyone, even if it is only in relation to everyone else.

wam wrote:I'm putting vicarin into the town category as well as I don't see scum Vic putting that much effort in.

Interesting, as I’ve seen Vicarin put a great deal of effort in to a game as scum and as town. His content level was not only high in WoT3, it was apparently good enough that even when he claimed scum he was only lynched by a 4/3 margin. You should remember this as you were scum with him in that game. So I’m suspicious that you possibly are looking for an easy read, or a reason to town read Vicarin. And I don’t agree with the underlying idea of your statement, as Vicarin and others on this forum put in a lot of effort regardless of alignment, and also will look up previous games to support an argument. So is there anything you find particularly townie in Vicarin’s content, or is this based entirely on his number crunching and researching old games?

Will need to pick up here (halfway through page 4) later. I will try to get back to it tonight but I’ve only had a few hours sleep for the past two nights so it may be tomorrow.

@bessie: Oh, I don't think it's definitive evidence against plytho or anything, that was for a vote in my 2nd post of the game. If there is a sufficiently strong pattern though, it's nice to have to add to the pile. Established patterns of behavior and all. I'd be pretty interested in a reads list from him right now before deciding whether my vote is more useful elsewhere. Like Mark, SuperJedi, or mpolo, who have all been pretty annoyingly quiet.

bessie wrote:

wam wrote:I'm putting vicarin into the town category as well as I don't see scum Vic putting that much effort in.

Interesting, as I’ve seen Vicarin put a great deal of effort in to a game as scum and as town. His content level was not only high in WoT3, it was apparently good enough that even when he claimed scum he was only lynched by a 4/3 margin. You should remember this as you were scum with him in that game. So I’m suspicious that you possibly are looking for an easy read, or a reason to town read Vicarin. And I don’t agree with the underlying idea of your statement, as Vicarin and others on this forum put in a lot of effort regardless of alignment, and also will look up previous games to support an argument. So is there anything you find particularly townie in Vicarin’s content, or is this based entirely on his number crunching and researching old games?

I was feeling a tiny bit insulted by wam's statement, nice to see you think I put a lot of effort in in general

Sabrar wrote:

bessie wrote:I don’t suppose you’d like to share this meta read?

You didn't make a confirmation-post analysis. Especially after I broke my tradition of doing only blank confirms.