NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND: 'True Grit' Gives #1 'Little Fockers' A Run For The Money; Many Holiday Pics Grossing Big Overseas

SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM UPDATE, HAPPY NEW YEAR! Overall, the movie industry domestic box ended the year at $10.3 billion, down from $10.6B in 2009. As I previously reported, Warner Bros will three-peat (a record) in winning the domestic market share for the 3rd year in a row with $1.885 billion, followed by Paramount, then Fox. “A lack of strong commercial product at Christmas was the reason that the 2010 box office could not close strong,” one top studio exec emails me. However, the final movie industry international box office cume will definitely be a record. The final figure isn’t available yet, but the international numbers look like a tie between Warner Bros and Fox with $2.290 billion, so that gives Warner Bros the crown for worldwide market share for 2010 with $4.804 billion. That’s the 2nd year in a row. As I’ve already reported, Disney’s international total for 2010 was its biggest ever with $2.3 billion. And domestic cume will end the year its second biggest year ever with $1.49 billion. Thank its three 3D titles, Alice In Wonderland and Toy Story 3 and Tangled. Here are official numbers from the studios for New Year’s weekend box office with daily and cume estimates. More bad news: overall grosses this weekend look to be $158M, which is -28% down from last year. Here are the Top 10:

Universal hasn’t seen one of its pictures pass $100M, much less in just 12 days’ time, since its only blockbuster Despicable Me last summer. What a lousy year for the studio still feeling the after-effects of a 2009 change in management at Universal Pictures. Comcast is buying a fixer-upper.

Wow, an adult movie starts New Year’s weekend as #1 Friday when that Little Fockers was supposed to be the big holiday pic with mass audience appeal. OK, so it didn’t stay there on Saturday. But not only is this the Coen Brothers’ highest grossing movie ever, but True Grit now easily will pass the domestic box office of their Best Picture Oscar winner No Country For Old Men which topped out at $74M. This will help the pic’s awards chances and make it a shoo-in for Best Picture 10 inclusion since Academy voters don’t like to look out of step with public taste.

Remember how I told you that Tron: Legacy 3D would be making almost as much overseas as domestically? In its 3rd week in release, its New Year’s international weekend was $23.7M (down only 26% from last weekend) in release in 40 territories representing 70% of that market. So with an international cume now of $110M, the pic’s global cume is a big $240.9M. But that’s still not enough yet to cover the cost of making it ($170M) or marketing it worldwide ($120M).

Fox reports that Narnia 3 made $21.4M from 68 markets this weekend, bringing the international cume to $210M and the global cume to just shy of $300M. With only one new market opening (Argentina), the pic dropped less than 8% overall from Xmas weekend, with numerous markets up significantly from last weekend.

This Fox pic has been hammered here in North America, bottoming out a year that the studio’s moguls would like to forget. But I noted last weekend that, since Jonathan Swift’s classic book has great cultural meaning internationally, Fox is hoping the title translates to broad awareness and does well overseas. To that point, Gulliver’s Travels earned $26M from only a handful of territories going into this New Year’s weekend, with 11 of the top 15 markets yet to release. Then the pic opened in 19 new and mostly smaller markets, bringing in $24M from now 33 markets. Which means the film has earned $47M in its first 10 days of release overseas, with only 5 of the top 15 markets releasing. The UK, home to the book, generated a sizable $10.9M since Boxing Day for the #1 market share position and should have a very strong bank holiday Monday before most of the kids return to school. With no other PG family friendly films opening until January 28th (Disney’s Tangled), Gulliver’s Travels should have a great run through January in the UK. Six new territories open next week, including Russia, and now insiders are putting on their rose-colored glasses and predicting the movie could get to $175M abroard even though comedy doesn’t travel too well too often. Then again, everybody can understand those Star Wars and Transformers gags.

Waiting… The New Year is no excuse to go slow here, LOL. Expecting small numbers all around.

Alex • on Jan 1, 2011 1:55 pm

I hoped you enjoyed your time away, you rock. “True Grit” was #1 and “Little Fockers” dropped to #2. No shock, reviews and word of mouth were awfull.

Tilted Sideways • on Jan 1, 2011 2:40 pm

Now would be a good time to commend the Deadline team for so much quality reporting. I was actually quite impressed at the volume of articles posted in December. Keep on keeping on in ’11 – and thank you!

Ilikemovies • on Jan 1, 2011 2:48 pm

TRUE GRIT!!!

liu-y • on Jan 1, 2011 3:03 pm

Is it me or is the female lead in True Grit given short shrift? no mention of her anywhere on the movie poster and yet she carries the film… at least the equal to Bridges and Damon COMBINED (who were gr8 in their own parts).

gr8 flick BTW.

some gr8 female leads in 2010 box office not withstanding. in fact some of the strongest female characters in cinema in the past 30-40 yrs…

mediadogma • on Jan 2, 2011 9:43 am

Totally agree. She carried the movie. Is it because there are so many great female performances already getting attention this year?

liu-y • on Jan 3, 2011 7:44 am

….might be but personally I think she could have easily competed with the other gr8 female leads. I think the coen bros realize she is talented but the movie company must have felt she doesnt have the name-recognition. I just dont see who it would hurt to have her name listed on the posters, in smaller lettering or say “introducing…”.

brolin’s name was given such notice and he doesnt have that much screen time, although he is important and does a gr8 job when he does show up.

Mike L • on Jan 1, 2011 3:04 pm

Take your time, Nikki.

I have never fully understood the value of providing weekend numbers on Saturday when they are based on a guesstimate of a Sunday that has yet to occur.

Have some patience… Is it really that hard to wait until Monday to know for certain?

mfan • on Jan 2, 2011 3:55 am

The weekend estimates are based on past performance of similar films and similar calendar configurations. Some of us would like an informed estimate as soon as possible. Especially if we have a rooting interest in the films involved.

mfan • on Jan 2, 2011 4:05 am

…and you might as well say that you don’t understand why people wait in the hospital after a loved one has been in an accident instead of staying home and waiting for a phone call from the doctor. Or why an expectant father goes to the hospital at all. Woudn’t it be better just to wait to find out how it all turned out later, while getting a good night’s sleep?

N Cognito Dood • on Jan 1, 2011 3:53 pm

Happy New Year! Hope you had fun on vacation ’cause you deserved it!

falcon • on Jan 1, 2011 4:28 pm

what ever happened to Burlesque? I thought it would do well. Cher was fabu.

Walter • on Jan 1, 2011 4:39 pm

I think it’s past the deadline for “shortly.” :-) HAPPY NEW YEAR! Please rest. We can wait.

Jeremiah Balik • on Jan 1, 2011 5:02 pm

Welcome back Nikki — hope you had a great holiday. Happy New Year aka Shana tova #2.
Look forward to the numbers…

Sam • on Jan 1, 2011 5:29 pm

I see The Fighter actually topped Black Swan this time. It’s been interesting seeing them perfectly matched day after day despite The Fighter being on 1000 more screens.

Haven't heard from u since last year • on Jan 1, 2011 5:32 pm

Omg turn off the gas nikki is back!’!!!!!!!!

richard • on Jan 1, 2011 6:38 pm

True. Grit. Awesome.

Captain Awesome • on Jan 1, 2011 6:39 pm

Happy New Year Nikki & Team Deadline!

Warner Borg • on Jan 1, 2011 7:11 pm

Before the Holiday break the office pool was running to see what Tron Legacy’s final worldwide gross would be.

My bet was less than $300m worldwide. The dust hasn’t settled yet I grant you, but I have to say, I am feeling pretty, preeeettty, preeeeeeetttttyyy confident at the moment.

Doc Michaels • on Jan 2, 2011 12:45 pm

Really? why? Looks like you’re going to lose that bet.

sam • on Jan 1, 2011 7:55 pm

True Grit was a complete bore and Jeff bridges who has no chance of winning should not take the spot of some very deserving performances from ryan gosling, leonardo dicaprio and aaron eckhart.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz – This movie was a complete bore. No wonder the bo is down 27% – burn Hollywood burn

• on Jan 2, 2011 3:53 pm

Fascinating. I’ll bet you’re a ball at cocktail parties.

bobby the saint • on Jan 1, 2011 8:33 pm

Wow. “The King’s Speech” did THAT in just 700 theaters? That is, in a word, AMAZING! This movie could be hitting its stride at the most auspicious time.

“The King’s Speech” really is a work of art, from writing to directing to acting. I’mm happy for all involved… you all should be damn proud. And the fact that this is doing so well without the hype and media masturbation we’ve been seeing with “The Fighter” is even more admirable. This original and refreshing flick (“The King’s Speech” not “The Fighter”) could be underdog movie of the year!

As for “True Grit”, I was on here saying from jump this would be the movie of the season. It might also clean up come Oscar time as well. The Coen Bros. outdid themselves with this flick. Kudos to them.

Oh, and Happy New Year to Nikki and the rest of the Deadline team. Here’s to you guys kicking more butt on Deadline in 2011! (Because you guys sure kicked ass and took names in 2010. :-) )

— bobby the saint

yeah • on Jan 1, 2011 11:24 pm

It’s crazy how Harvey was D.O.A., and now here he is, distributing The King’s Speech and Blue Valentine.

What he really needs to prove, however, is that he can fund and distribute an indie that makes it this far. Of course, where are you going to find the material? Writers can’t write. And those that can are too scared to write something that’s not commercial dreck.

Harvey would be wise to stick with acquisitions. He micromanages his productions too much for his, and everyone else’s, own good.

Lois Amherst • on Jan 3, 2011 5:18 am

I’d like to see Harvey make a resolution for 2011: that he won’t screw over any filmmakers this year.

Oh – and here’s the impossible dream for 2011: that Harvey & Bob treat their staff decently for the next 12 months (no screaming). But that’s asking for too much, isn’t it?

JetsonDavis • on Jan 2, 2011 9:11 am

Another mediocre waste of celluoid – watchable, yes, best picture, no way. This movie is totally devoid of any meaningful conflict and relies solely on the actors performance to give it any credibility. A pale imitation of The Madness of King George. Just because a movie is a period piece with a significant budget does not make it an Oscar worthy film. Again, I say zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

michael • on Jan 1, 2011 9:19 pm

Welcome back!

TRUE GRIT’s victory is only a shocker if you’ve given up on the idea that good movies can outgross bad ones. And it’s nice to see that TANGLED will outgross YOGI BEAR, GULLIVER, NARNIA and perhaps even TRON.