The Darwin basing agreement with the US Marines could become a platform for multilateral training and exercises with other regional allies, such as Japan and Korea, concerned about trends such as the rise of China, a US security expert says.

Patrick Cronin, head of the Asia-Pacific program at the Centre for a New American Security in Washington, said such operations would “more likely be done in small numbers to avoid the accusation that they are attempting to encircle China".

Australia and the US have been careful to say the basing agreement, under which the US will rotate up to 2500 Marine air and ground troops through Darwin, will serve humanitarian and disaster relief purposes, as well as launching amphibious operations to preserve maritime security. But authorities in Beijing have interpreted it as targeting China and its territorial claims in the South China Sea and have criticised it as unnecessary.

Dr Cronin said that although maritime security is on the agenda at this weekend’s East Asia Summit in Bali, and has been at Association of South-East Asian Nations meetings this year and last year, it may not go much further in the next three years because the hosts have less interest in the issue.

This year’s host nation, Indonesia, and last year’s host, Vietnam, both had a strong interest in pushing for multilateral resolution of maritime disputes. But over the next three years the chair rotates to Cambodia, Brunei and Burma, which for various reasons are considered less likely to seek a vigorous discussion on maritime security.

“There’ll be talk about it but I don’t think it’ll get traction, and as a result of weak institutions we’re going to have to be dealing bilaterally and minilaterally, and that’s where the US-Australian alliance becomes more important," Dr Cronin said.

“So you have potentially three years where you don’t go back to what we’ve seen in 2011 and 2010, where you’ve had an active chair of ASEAN willing to raise the maritime issue," Dr Cronin told the Weekend Financial Review.

“So we are going to be looking for other means and Australia may be playing a bigger role in this."

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At Darwin’s Robertson Barracks, where the US troops will be based, “you could turn bilateral training and exercising into multilateral training and exercising – a coalition of the willing, if you will – to build capabilities, to send signals," Dr Cronin said. “I think that’s where we’re heading."

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan occupy various islands in the South China Sea, but China has laid claim to the entire sea, and reacted strongly to Vietnam’s decision to invite India’s state-owned oil company to jointly explore for oil in its waters. Japan and South Korea have fallen foul of China in the East China Sea.

Exercises out of Darwin could potentially be conducted with US allies Japan, Korea, and the Philippines; strategic partners such as Singapore and India; emerging partners such as Vietnam; and other ASEAN states.