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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 06/02/2004

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The Option Investor Newsletter Wednesday 06-02-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved. 1 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.
In Section One:
Wrap: Bluechips Rally on Oil's Weakness
Futures Wrap: See Note
Index Trader Wrap: Oil remains key focus, tomorrow's no different
Posted online for subscribers at http://www.OptionInvestor.com
*******************************************************************
MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment)
*******************************************************************
06-02-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA 10262.97 + 60.32 10288.81 10197.06 1.52 bln 1695/1120
NASDAQ 1988.98 - 1.79 1998.32 1978.71 1.50 bln 1560/1450
S&P 100 547.58 + 2.47 549.22 544.40 Totals 3255/2570
S&P 500 1124.99 + 3.79 1128.10 1118.64
RUS 2000 573.56 + 1.07 574.81 570.76
DJ TRANS 3001.85 + 38.35 3005.00 2962.92
VIX 16.08 - 0.22 16.70 15.95
VXO 16.24 - 0.43 16.87 15.00
VXN 22.61 + 0.04 23.17 22.19
Total Volume 3,395M
Total UpVol 1,730M
Total DnVol 1,551M
52wk Highs 218
52wk Lows 63
TRIN 1.15
PUT/CALL 0.91
*******************************************************************
Bluechips Rally on Oil's Weakness
by James Brown
Positive comments from Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister a day before
OPEC's official meeting in Beirut sent crude to a 5.6% decline,
its biggest drop in six months. This gave the Dow Industrials a
lift but the tech-heavy NASDAQ slipped into the red for the first
time in eight sessions.
Memorial day is the unofficial start of summer and the markets
wasted no time slipping into their summer doldrums. Volume
continues to be low with many traders either still on vacation or
sitting on the sidelines ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls
report. Market internals were generally flat but bulls won the
day. The NYSE reported 17 advancers for every 11 decliners. On
the NASDAQ it was almost a dead heat at 15 to 14, advancers over
decliners. Up volume was only marginally above down volume on
both exchanges.
The first half of the trading day was mostly sideways chop but an
afternoon rally pushed the Industrials through resistance at
10,220 outlined in yesterday's wrap. The same can be said for
the S&P 500 index, which drifted lower into lunchtime but then
rallied past resistance at 1122. The action in the NASDAQ
composite followed a similar pattern and the COMPX tested
resistance at 2000 with an intraday high of 1998 before fading in
the last hour. At the end of the day the Dow added 60 points to
10,262. The NASDAQ lost less than two points to close at 1988
and the S&P 500 inched up less than four points to 1124.99.
Overseas the Japanese NIKKEI slipped 54 points to 11,242. The
Chinese Hang Seng climbed 96 points to 12,201. Across the
Atlantic the German DAX rose 24 points to 3,888. The French CAC
followed with a 21-point gain to 3646 and the London FTSE close
nearly unchanged at 4,442.
Concerns over crude oil prices and supplies continued to hog the
spotlight. The recent attack in Saudi over the weekend sent
crude prices to their all-time high on Tuesday to more than $42 a
barrel. Industry experts say the markets are pricing in a fear
premium of $8 to $12 a barrel due to concerns that terrorist
might disrupt supply lines. Fortunately, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi's
Oil Minister, told the press that Saudi Arabia (and OPEC) will
continue to target a $22-$28 price per barrel for oil. There had
been some speculation that OPEC might be raising their target
price, which has been fuel to the fire under oil's rally.
World markets are already concerned that the current record highs
for oil is beginning to choke off the best economic recovery the
globe has seen in twenty years. Today's drop back under the
psychological $40 a barrel level helped ease nervous traders.
Crude's decline may have been sharper than normal due to a small
but growing expectation that several OPEC ministers will push to
temporarily suspend the current quota system altogether as a
signal to the markets that they are taking serious action. Of
course the move may be largely ceremonial as most of the cartel's
members are already cheating above their current quotas and
pumping oil at or near their full capacity.
The drop in oil prices gave the airlines and transportation
stocks a boost today. The XAL airline index rallied 4.27% with a
strong rebound from its 52 level sending it back toward its May
highs. The Dow Transports also turned in a big move adding 38
points to breakout and close over the 3000 level for the first
time in more than a month. Traditional Dow theory suggests we
can't have a sustained market rally without participation by the
transports and this has been underlying support for the
Industrials.
Impacting the NASDAQ has been the SOX semiconductor index.
Investors are cautious over the upcoming Intel mid-quarter update
on Thursday night and shares of Intel fell 1.12% to $28.01 today.
Currently the unofficial word on the street is expecting Intel to
guide to the lower end of their previously forecasted range.
This is undermining strength in the SOX, which fell 2.25%. The
SOX tried to rebound from its lows this afternoon but it failed
under the 480 level and odds are it will test previous resistance
at 470 soon. It is a commonly held belief that the semiconductor
sector leads the NASDAQ. Should Intel disappoint it will be a
major drag on tech stocks just as the NASDAQ tries to breakout
over resistance at the 2000 level.
Speaking of resistance the trendline of lower highs for the
NASDAQ is just over the 2000 mark as is its simple 100-dma and
both will make it that much tougher for the NASDAQ to breakout.
Meanwhile the Dow Industrials has broken out above the 10,220
level and its 40 & 50-dma's. This is very impressive but its
trendline of lower highs (and top of its descending channel) is
near the 10,400 level and near its simple 100-dma.
Chart of the Dow Industrials:
Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:
Chart of the S&P 500 Index:
Wednesday's only "economic" reports were the auto and truck sales
numbers. According to reports U.S. vehicle sales rose 3.4% in
May despite rising prices at the pump. General Motors (GM)
reported its best month ever with sales up 2.8% over last May.
DaimlerChrysler turned in a 1.3% jump in sales while Ford said
sales slipped 2.8%. Ford (F) continued to see strong sales of
its F-series trucks but overall sales slipped due to very steep
comparisons to last year's big numbers.
Many of the stock-specific headlines today were made by ALTH, BA,
HD, and NT. Allos Therapeutics (ALTH) was a huge winner with a
44% jump in its share price to $2.82 after the FDA issued a
surprise approval for its RSR13 treatment. The "approvable"
letter was a surprise because the FDA advisory panel had
suggested the drug not be approved due to concerns over the
patient make up of ALTH's trials. RSR13 is being given
conditional approval for patients with cancer that originates in
the chest and spreads to the brain but the company will need to
complete another round of Phase III trials.
Dow-component Boeing Inc (BA) was a winner today, hitting new
two-year highs, after announcing that Air New Zealand had ordered
10 new plans worth $851 million. BA also got a boost from a
Merrill Lynch analyst who suggested that BA could benefit from
higher oil prices. Surging fuel costs could force the airline
industry to upgrade their aging fleet to BA's new more fuel-
efficient models sooner rather than later. Boeing added 1.87% to
close at $46.47.
Dow-component Home Depot (HD) was an early drag on the
Industrials after a Bank of America analyst downgraded the stock
from a "buy" to a "neutral". The concern centered on slowing
traffic patterns and a potential slow down in the housing market
and refinancings due to higher rates. The historically low
interest rates and refi boom have lead to a huge increase in home
improvements but now with higher rates looming ahead of us the
do-it-yourself crowd may not be quite so ready to tap into their
equity. This morning the Mortgage Bankers Association reported
that applications for loans slipped 1.2% last week with refi's
falling 6.6%.
Meanwhile Canadian telecom giant Nortel Networks (NT) fell more
than 6% to $3.83. The company said it was still not ready to
issue new financials for the last three years. The stock has
fallen sharply from its February highs near $8.50 due to its
ongoing accounting scandal.
Looking ahead to tomorrow we'll hear a small number of economic
reports. Before the opening bell will be the initial weekly
jobless claims. After the open we'll get the factory orders for
April and the ISM services index for May. Yet the real focus
will be on Intel's mid-quarter update after the closing bell and
Friday's non-farm payrolls report. If the jobs number comes in
too strong many believe the Fed will feel forced to raise rates
at its June 29-30th meeting.
************
FUTURES WRAP
************
Futures wrap is not emailed due to the excessive number of charts.
It may be read on the website at this address.
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/indexes/futureswrap.asp
********************
INDEX TRADER SUMMARY
********************
Oil remains key focus, tomorrow's no different
The major indices finished mixed as another volatile session for
oil prices found July Crude Oil futures (cl04n) $39.95 -5.62%
trading sharply lower, where declines in oil helped give a late
session lift to broader equities.
Semiconductors as depicted by the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X)
475.08 -2.25% were never really able to shake off early session
weakness as a broker downgrade on various semiconductor equipment
names as well as mixed comments from brokers following
yesterday's mid-quarter update from Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR) $22.12
-3.10%, where ALTR said orders were tracking at the high end of
its Q2 guidance, but not enough to have the company raising
quarterly guidance, weighed on the tech-heavy NASDAQ for the bulk
of the session.
While the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 193.10 +0.73% exerted
itself as today's tech-sector winner, it was the AMEX Airline
Index (XAL.X) 54.87 +4.27% taking today's top spot among sector
winner, where gains among the commercial airliners on lower oil
prices also had the Dow Transportation Average (TRAN) 3,001.85
+1.29% once again trying to reclaim the 3,000 level by its close.
An additional technical note on the INX.X that I made in today's
Market Monitor is that when I turned on the QChart's WEEKLY Pivot
levels, the INX.X WEEKLY R1 was calculated at 192.44. Today's
trade certainly gives some thought to continued Internet
bullishness, but I did sense some hesitancy from buyers, or lack
of aggressiveness, which most likely comes from a lagging SOX.X
trade today.
U.S. Market Watch - 06/02/04 Close
The Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 586.29 -0.56%,
which I have currently residing below a "zone of resistance" from
601.75-607.25 and its trending lower 50-day SMA traded relatively
tough after the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its
statistics showed its Mortgage Applications Index fell 1.2% last
week to 624.6, its lowest reading since the week ending January 7
(599.9), while the refinance portion fell 6.6% on a week-to-week
basis to 1,583.6, its lowest level in 2-years. However, the more
important to home sales showed the Purchases Index rising 2.2% to
459.8 for the week ending May 28. The MBA said the average
contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
decreased to 6.24% from 6.26% from one week earlier. The current
30-year fixed-rate mortgage figures matched those found for the
week ending August 28, 2003 when the DJUSHB closed at 447.
I've highlighted the July Crude Oil futures (cl04n) $39.85, where
tomorrow's (Thursday's) trade is already underway, with crude
futures down 11-cents.
In today's 03:15 PM EDT intra-day update
I posted a chart of this oil futures chart.
Tomorrow, at approximately 10:30 AM EDT, we'll get the weekly DOE
and API crude oil inventories report. The weekly statistics on
crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories are usually
released each Wednesday, but due to Monday's Memorial Day
holiday, these statistics were delayed until tomorrow.
For now, I'd be alert to near-term support on this contract at
$39.69. I'd be willing to bet a couple bucks that while comments
from Saudi and OPEC officials regarding conviction toward lower
oil prices is grabbing headlines, tomorrow's weekly U.S.
inventory data is going to bring some volatility.
We've noted before that the DOE and API data will often-times
show very different figures and there is no "official" consensus
estimate.
Last week (Wednesday), the July Crude Oil futures (cl04n) rose
from $41.00 to $41.50 as the DOE/API inventory was released, then
fell quickly to $40.50 in the span of 10-minutes, then jumped
back higher to its session high of $41.65 by 11:40 AM EDT, to
then finish the session at $40.68.
As a benchmark to last week's inventory figures the API said oil
inventories rose by 764,000 barrels, while the DOE said
inventories remained unchanged.
OPEC officials begin their meeting in Beirut, Lebanon tomorrow,
where there were some rumors circulating that today's more
"determined" talk of lower oil prices has some thinking OPEC will
raise its daily production quota by 2.5 million barrels per day,
from the previously speculated increase of 2.0 million barrels
per day. The oil cartel's aggregate quota currently stands at
23.5 million barrels, excluding Iraq.
Market Snapshot / Internals - 06/02/04 Close
Summer trade volumes persist and despite some intra-day
fluctuations, the often-times more volatile QQQ's last 4-session
closes have been $36.42, $36.55, $36.50 and now $36.42. And as
the volatile QQQ looks to be digesting some past gains, the
slower-moving Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,262.97 +0.59% played some
catching up on positive component breadth of 24 to 6, with
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) $108.81 +0.19%, Boeing (NYSE:BA)
$46.74 +1.87% and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) $56.20 +0.77%
recording new 52-week highs in today's session.
Pivot Matrix -
At time, the QQQ looks like it is ready to explode to the upside
as a sudden bid comes from nowhere (today near DAILY S1 of
$36.22), where it would appear gains are capped by the
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X). Early tomorrow, and ahead of
tomorrow afternoon's Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $28.04 -1.02% mid-
quarter update, tentative resistance is found at the SOX's DAILY
Pivot and WEEKLY Pivot, where I would have to say the MONTHLY
Pivot/DAILY S1 become an important near-term support level into
INTC's update. I've also marked the correlative WEEKLY S1 and
DAILY S2, and while I don't think that is a trade that is in play
tomorrow, I'd make note of it as it may be a downside risk level
for Friday's open, should INTC give a lackluster mid-quarter
update.
Hmmm.... just adding this, but was looking for an old OEX chart
and was reviewing the 05/19/04 Index Trader Wrap and intra-day
notes of the SOX.X that day. On 05/19/04, a sell program premium
was witnessed, which drove the SOX.X below its then "zone of
resistance" from MONTHLY Pivot of 467.81 and WEEKLY 19.1%
retracement of 470.02. That observation along with current
MONTHLY pivot 470.78 and tomorrow's DAILY S1 470.18, could well
be an important intermediate-term level of support right now.
I didn't monitor any buy/sell program premium alerts today, but
will make an effort on tomorrow and Friday to have them set, with
these SOX.X notes at the ready.
With no real apparent correlations for the NDX/QQQ, traders will
most likely be best served to use the SOX.X action and support
correlations as a downside range, while WEEKLY R1 correlations
for the INDU/DIA and SPX/SPY and OEX become apparent.
Again, I think oil price swings will probably dictate market
sentiment.
S&P 100 Index Chart - Daily Intervals
While oil prices are a focus, let's not forget that on Friday,
May's nonfarm payroll figures (consensus +225,000) will be
released prior to the bell. Similar MACD/Stochastics continue to
present themselves as found in early April (I can't find the
SPX/OEX chart from a prior update where I think I noted this
development) but based on early April trade, we might look for
further OEX gains to the 555-556 area (QQQ/NDX are at their
downward trends), where with time, I do think there's a put
option trade setup in the making (get some further SOX.X along
with BIX.X and 10-year YIELD observations). If SOX.X unravels
lower on lack of catalyst from Intel mid-quarter, then OEX 551 is
most likely going to be a key level.
The reason I mention Friday's nonfarm payroll release is that the
last two nonfarm payroll reports found sharp selling in
Treasuries, where YIELD moved sharply higher in the 10-year.
While I (Jeff Bailey) think the bond market has fully accounted
for 2, if not 3, 25-basis point rate hikes by the Fed, we should
have a close eye on the 10-year YIELD, and any response from the
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X).
NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) - 60-minute intervals
Here's a 60-minute chart of the QQQ, where at the top I've posted
today's top 4 percentage gainers/losers, where I think we should
see some of the impact the semiconductor stocks that comprise the
QQQ/NDX may be having on things near-term. Only KLAC and AMAT
are components of the SOX.X, but the tendency is that "like
stocks" tend to move somewhat in unison.
At tonight's close, I've got to be tying the QQQ WEEKLY Pivot
($36.02) as being the SOX.X MONTHLY Pivot (470.78), where the QQQ
is finding its current strength outside of semiconductor. This
current strength is most likely dependent on the SOX.X holding
support near 470.
Now, Intel (INTC) doesn't give its mid-quarter update until AFTER
the close tomorrow. It has been my experience that what takes
place in after-hours isn't always indicative of the next day's
trade, and right now I've got to be thinking that with the SOX.X
slipping below its WEEKLY Pivot today, that the SOX.X is going to
try and settle out near 470 tomorrow, where the chance of a "knee
jerk" lower trade being reversed higher would come from this....
On Friday, the SOX.X opens at or just below MONTHLY Pivot, QQQ
dips back under its WEEKLY Pivot, but momentum bulls leverage off
the QQQ $35.75 area, and SOX.X WEEKLY S1 (465.59), to then get a
"surprise" rebound forming on Friday, which may then extend to
QQQ $37.00 early next week.
Jeff Bailey
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The Option Investor Newsletter Wednesday 06-02-2004
Copyright 2004, All rights reserved. 2 of 2
Redistribution in any form strictly prohibited.
In Section Two:
Stop Loss Updates: AET, ZMH
Dropped Calls: None
Dropped Puts: None
Watch List: Brokers, Drugs, Defense and more!
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STOP-LOSS UPDATES
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AET - call play
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ZMH - call play
raise stop from $80.00 to $83.00
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DROPPED CALLS
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None
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Watch List
**********
Brokers, Drugs, Defense and more!
___________________________________________________________________
How to use this watch list:
Readers can use the candidates below as a springboard for their
own research. Many are in the process of breaking support or
resistance or in the process of starting new trends or
extending old ones. With your own due diligence these could be
strong potential plays.
___________________________________________________________________
I T T Industries - ITT - close: 80.90 change: +0.86
WHAT TO WATCH: After a brief rest shares of ITT are climbing
again and continuing the rally started last week. It is
noticeable that volume is declining on the run higher, which is a
caution flag for traders. ITT reaffirmed their earnings guidance
today and the stock shot above minor resistance at $81.00 before
a little last minute profit taking. Its current P&F price
objective is $108. We're watching it for a breakout above
$82.00.
Chart=
---
Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 91.77 change: -1.23
WHAT TO WATCH: The XBD broker-dealer index has been a laggard the
past couple of sessions and GS is certainly not helping the
group. GS has been consolidating between $90 and $95 for the
past three weeks and appears to be hinting at another leg down.
Volume has been above average on the recent declines but it could
be a bear trap. GS's P&F chart shows the stock pulling right
back to support and trying to bounce. If GS breaks down under
$90 we'd consider shorts. If it breaks out over $95 again we'd
carefully consider longs as it would be a new P&F buy signal.
Chart=
---
Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 79.66 change: +0.69
WHAT TO WATCH: ESRX has been stair-stepping higher the past
couple of weeks. Shares jumped from its May lows into the $76-78
range and consolidated there for several days. Last week ESRX
jumped into the $78-80 range and have been consolidating
sideways. Now we suspect ESRX is close to jumping through
resistance at $80.00. More aggressive traders can look for
another dip back to $78 and buy the bounce. Momentum traders can
wait for the move over $80 or even $82, which would be a new P&F
buy signal.
Chart=
---
General Dynamics - GD - close: 97.00 change: +1.37
WHAT TO WATCH: After weeks of consolidating under resistance in
the $95-96 range we're finally seeing a bullish breakout in GD.
Today's 1.43% gain and close at $97.00 breaks through the
previous highs in February and is close to a new two-year high.
Actually, if you look more closely at its intraday charts it
would appear that GD has produced an inverse head-and-shoulder
pattern. If this is true then the upside target should be in the
$101 region.
Chart=
-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------
BA $46.74 +0.86 - Dow component BA is hitting new highs after one
analyst suggested that higher oil prices might force the airlines
to upgrade to BA's more fuel efficient models sooner than
expected.
BOL $64.87 +1.67 - Kudos to any readers who took advantage of the
breakout in BOL the last two days. Tuesday's gain broke through
the 50-dma and today's move sends it right toward resistance at
$65. There is additional resistance near $66.50. Its MACD is in
a strong buy signal and volume has been strong on the rally.
Consider looking for a dip before evaluating new entries.
COF $69.67 +0.29 - We're still waiting for COF to breakout over
resistance in the $70.00 range and above its 50 and 100-dma's.
CFC $62.92 -1.21 - Uh-oh! This could be a triple top for CFC
after failing at the $65 resistance level. Today's weakness and
close under its 10-dma makes the stock look vulnerable.
HAR $80.65 +1.15 - Once again we're noting the close over
resistance at $80.00 for HAR. Shares are short-term overbought
but the could keep rising straight to resistance near $85.
*******************
FREE TRIAL READERS
*******************
If you like the results you have been receiving we
would welcome you as a permanent subscriber.
The monthly subscription price is $49.95. The quarterly
price is $129.95 which is $20 off the monthly rate.
We would like to have you as a subscriber. You may
subscribe at any time but your subscription will not
start until your free trial is over.
To subscribe you may go to our website at
www.OptionInvestor.com
and click on "subscribe" to use our secure credit
card server or you may simply send an email to
"Contact Support"
with your credit card information,(number, exp date, name)
or you may call us at 303-797-0200 and give us the
information over the phone.
You may also fax the information to: 303-797-1333
**********
DISCLAIMER
**********
Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.OptionInvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html
**************************************************************
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