2012 Opponents' Returning Starters: Why the Schedule Isn't as Tough as it Appears

Before we dive into the details, here are some things that you should know so that you can understand what’s below better:

1. * : When you see an asterisk by a number, know that it means that I included at least 1 Jr who I am projecting or has said that they will leave in those numbers. When you see a * by a name, it means that the player is a Jr projected to leave or is leaving.

2. 17 starters is the number that you want to return if you want to have at least the same amount of wins as the previous year. So the greatest number of starters that you would want to leave would be 5. After 5 starters leave, you expect to lose more games than the previous year. (Note: That number is from memory, I could not find the diary with that number so if someone could link to that in the comments, that would be great.)

3. I used the depth chart from each team’s Rivals site and the NFL draft projections from http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings. If a player was around the top 3 at his position, I projected him to leave unless, obviously, he’s already said that he’s coming back.

Now for a chart, keep in mind that the numbers are in terms of players lost. Remember, losing more than 5 total starters is not a good thing. The chart breaks it down into lost starters on offense, defense and then total.

Offense

Defense

Total

Alabama

5*

8*

13*

Air Force

8

9

17

U Mass

5

3

8

Notre Dame

4

6

10

Purdue

3

4

7

Illinois

4

4*

8*

MSU

6*

2*

8*

Nebraska

2

4

6

Minnesota

7

6

13

Northwestern

6

3

9

Iowa

4*

6

10*

Ohio State

5

0

5

Continue on for a more in depth look at each team. This includes starters lost by position, list of each starter lost, some notes on back ups, notes on new coaches or leaving coaches, and other general observations on each team. After the draft, I will break down each team in terms of percentage of yards, TDs, tackles, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc. lost with each starter.

**If I didn't include a leaving starters, leaving/new coachs, or if someone I've included has said they're coming back to school, please let me know so that I can fix it.**

Alabama

Offense

5 Starters lost: 1 RB*, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 C

*Trent Richardson, RB

Darius Hanks, WR

Marquis Maze, WR

Brad Smelley, TE

William Vlachos, C

Quick Notes: Replacement TEs will be a true sophomore. Richardson is a top 5 pick and was a Heisman candidate, he’ll be tough to replace.

Defense

8 Starters lost: 1 NT, 3 LB*, 2 CB, 2 S*

Josh Chapman, NT

Jerrell Harris, LB

Courtney Upshaw, LB

*Dont’a Hightower, LB

*Dre Kirkpatrick, CB

DeQuan Menzie, CB

Mike Barron, S

*Robert Lester, S

Quick Notes: The talent Alabama will be losing is ridiculous. Everyone they’re losing will be playing in the NFL. At least half of them are ranked in the top 3 at their positions. Yeah, Alabama will replace that talent, but there is no way that the talent coming in is greater than the talent going out. 2 possible LB replacements will be JRs. The rest of the possible replacement LBs will be true sophomores.

Coaching

Offensive Coordinator is leaving.

Total

13 starters lost.

Air Force

Offense

8 Starters lost: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 C, 1 RG, 1 RT

Tim Jefferson, QB

Asher Clark, RB

Jonathan Warzeka, WR

Zack Kauth, WR

Joshua Freeman, TE

Jeffrey Benson, C

A.J. Wallerstein, RG

Kevin Whitt, RT

Quick Notes: Back Up QB is graduating too.

Defense

9 Starters lost: 2 DE, 1 NT, 3 LB, 2 CB, 1 S

Zach Payne, DE

Harry Kehs, DE

Ryan Gardner, NT

Jordan Waiwaiole, LB

Brady Amack, LB

Patrick Hennessey, LB

Anthony Wright, CB

Josh Hall, CB

Jon Davis, S

Coaching

No Changes. (Note: These guys are going on to do something greater than playing football, a thank you to all of them and to everyone else serving.)

Total

17 starters lost.

UMass

Offense

5 Starters lost: 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE

Jonathan Hernandez, RB

Tom Gilson, WR

Julian Talley, WR

Jesse Julmiste, WR

Emil Igwenagu, TE

Defense

3 Starters lost: 1 DT, 2 LB

James Gilchrist, DT

Tyler Holmes, LB

Shane Vivieros, LB

Coaching

New head coach (Former ND OC). Also first year in the FBS.

Total

8 starters lost.

Notre Dame

Offense

4 starters lost: 1 WR, 1 OT, 1 OG, 1 C,

Michael Floyd, WR

Taylor Dever, OT

Trevor Robinson, OG

Mike Golic Jr., C

Quick Notes: You all know about the talent of Michael Floyd, and no, I’m not talking about drunk driving. Losing him is a huge, huge, huge loss for ND, especially with the QB questions that they have. It looks like the replacement OT and OG could be true sophomores.

Defense

6 starters lost: 1 DE, 1 LB, 2 CB, 2 S

Ethan Johnson, DE

Darius Fleming, LB

Gary Gray, CB

Robert Blanton, CB

Harrison Smith, S

Jamoris Slaughter, S

Quick Notes: Manti Te’o is returning. That’s huge for ND.

Coaching

New Offensive Coordinator, RB coach, OL coach, and QB coach. Also Brian Kelly is still there.

Total

10 Starters

Purdue

Offense

3 Starters lost: 1 WR, 1 OT, 1 OG

Justin Siller, WR

Dennis Kelly, OT

Nick Mondek, OG

Defense

4 Starters lost: 1 DE, 1 LB, 2 S

Gerlad Gooden, DE

Joe Holland, LB

Albert Evans, S

Logan Link, S

Coaching

No Changes

Total

7 starter lost.

Illinois

Offense

4 Starters lost: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 OT, 1 OG

Jason Ford, RB

A.J. Jenkins, WR

Jeff Allen, OT

Jack Cornell, OG

Quick Notes: A.J. Jenkins is a pretty big loss for Illinois.

Defense

4 Starters lost: 1 DE*, 2 LB, 1 CB

*Whitney Mercilus, DE

Trulon Henry, LB

Ian Thomas, LB

Tavon Wilson, CB

Quick Notes: Mercilus is the #3 DE, if he leaves, which is likely, it’ll be a huge loss for Illinois.

Coaching

You know the deal with Zook, he’s gone so there’ll be a new HC and a new coaching staff.

Total

8 starters lost.

MSU

Offense

6 starters lost: 1 QB, 2 WR, 1 OG, 1 FB, 1 RB*

Kirk Cousins, QB

B.J. Cunningham, WR

Keshawn Martin, WR

Joel Foreman, OG

Todd Anderson, FB

*Edwin Baker, RB

Quick Notes: Replacement QB will be a Jr or Sr. B.J. Cunningham is a beast, losing him really hurts. Replacements will be Arnett, providing the NCAA grants a waiver, or will be a Jr or a few sophomores. Losing Baker is another hit to MSU’s offense

Defense

2 starters lost: 1 DT*, 1 S

*Jerel Worthy, DT

Trenton Robinson, S

Quick Notes: Worthy’s back-up is graduating too. Robinson’s replacement will be a Jr or sophomore. The defense looks to be much the same as it was last year.

Coaching

As of the time of this writing, rumors of Narduzzi to Texas A&M continue to run rampant. Losing him is huge.

Total

8 starters lost.

Nebraska

Offense

2 starters lost: 1 OT, 1 C

J. Hardrick, OT

Mike Caputo, C

Quick Notes: Offense looks to be as potent as you can be with a QB who throws like a girl.

Defense

4 starters lost: 1 DT, 1 LB, 1 CB, 1 S

Jared Crick, DT

Lavonte David, LB

Alfonzo Dennard, CB

Austin Cassidy, S

Quick Notes: Nebraska loses their top 3 players on D. Tough to replace losses like that.

Coaching

New DL coach.

Total

6 starters lost.

Minnesota

Offense

7 starters lost: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 FB, 1 TE, 2 OG, 1 C

Duane Bennett, RB

Da’Jon McKnight, WR

Eric Lair, FB

Collin McGarry, TE

Chris Bunders, OG

Ryan Orton, OG

Ryan Wynn, C

Quick Notes: Ouch.

Defense

6 starters lost: 2 DT, 1 LB, 1 CB, 2 S

Anthony Jacobs, DT

Brandon Kirksey, DT

Gary Tinsley, LB

Troy Stoudermire, CB

Shady Salamon, S

Kim Royston, S

Quick Notes: Ouch again. Minnesota looks to stay Minnesota.

Coaching

No changes.

Total

13 starters lost.

Northwestern

Offense

6 starters lost: 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 WR, 1 OT, 1 OG

Dan Persa, QB

Jacob Schmidt, RB

Drake Dunsmore, RB

Jeremy Ebert, WR

Al Netter, OT

Ben Burkett, OG

Quick Notes: Losing Persa is pretty big but Colter filled in pretty well for him this year.

Defense

3 starters lost: 1 DT, 1 CB, 1 S

Jack DiNardo, DT

Jeravin Matthews, CB

Brian Peters, S

Coaching

No changes.

Total

9 starters lost.

Iowa

Offense

4 starters lost: 1 WR, 2 OT*, 1 OG,

Marvin McNutt, WR

*Riley Reiff, OT

Markus Zusevics, OT

Adam Gettis, OG

Quick Notes: Losing McNutt is pretty big for Iowa.

Defense

6 starters lost: 1 DE, 2 DT, 1 LB, 1 CB, 1 S

Broderick Binns, DE

Mike Daniels, DT

Thomas Nardo, DT

Tyler Nielsen, LB

Shaun Prater, CB

Jordan Bernstine, S

Quick notes: Defense looks to worsen with the loss of 6 starters and the DC.

Coaching

New DL coach. New DC.

Total

10 starters lost.

Ohio St.

Offense

5 starters lost: 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 OT, 1 C

Dan Herron, RB

DeVier Posey, WR

Mike Adams, OT

J.B. Shugarts, OT

Michael Brewster, C

Quick Notes: New offense, new schemes, new plays, etc. Remember the offense without Posey and Herron? Couldn’t score if they were playing a middle school football team.. Remember the offense without Posey? Not much better. Now they’ll have a new offense without 3 new starters on the OL and without their 2 biggest playmakers on offense.

Defense

0 starters lost.

Quick Notes: The defense that we owned this year looks to be the same next year.

......they also played their starters well into every game they played this year, including their blowout wins. For example, Trent Richardson was piling up the stats into the fourth quarter of games Alabama had well in hand, despite what their fanbase would tell you. On defense, their starting LB's were making big plays in the fourth quarter of those same games. Their experience level for their backups isn't much better, if at all, than a lot of other teams.

- Could you add Michigan's starters lost to your table? It would be nice to be able to see our number up against our opponents'. By my count, we have 9: Huyge, Molk, Hemingway, Koger, Odoms, Martin, RVB, Heininger, and Woolfolk.

- It's worth mentioning Trent Richardson's backup, Eddie Lacy. He was a sophomore this year and he ran for 674 yards and 7 TDs, at 7.1 YPC, and he looked pretty good last night against LSU. He's certainly no slouch.

- Regarding the diary you reference in your intro, does it show a correlation between returning starters and wins? It would be helpful if someone can find that, since your argument is based on the assumption that that correlation exists.

I know it was posted sometime during last summer but that's all. I'll be adding the list for Michigan later tonight. Do you think Woolfolk should be included? Sadly, I always felt he was more of a back up this year than a starter.

Yeah, I wasn't really sure about him or Odoms. But I think they started most of the time when they were healthy, so that's why I included them. I'd say it's a judgment call, though.

Edit: Upon further review, I would definitely include Woolfolk and possibly Odoms. According to the depth chart on MGoBlue, Woolfolk is listed as the #1 FS along with Thomas Gordon; Odoms is listed as the #3 WR, so depending on what formation we lined up in, he could be a starter. I'm not sure if it is typical to only include the top 2 WRs or something like that, but I'd say Odoms is more of a judgment call.

Edit edit: I take that back about Odoms. I misread the depth chart. He's listed as the #5/6 WR. Although, was he listed that way due to injury? By the end of the season, he was getting more PT than Gallon and Grady, and both are listed in front of Odoms on the depth chart.

The official depth chart often doesn't correlate with playing time. For the first half or so of the season, Gallon was the clear #3 WR. Then Odoms got healthy and passed him. I would count Odoms as half a lost starter, and Woolfolk as another half.

Thanks for posting this. I was just reading over at the ESPN Big Ten Blog and for some reason they project MSU vs. Wisconsin for the Big Ten Title next year. I can MAYBE get Wisco being there with Ball coming back, but State? Come on man!

In addition to the loses outlined above, they also lose lots of depth at WR/TE: Linthicum, Nichol, and Celek. That makes 4 of their top 5 receivers, stat wise, from this year's roster.

Wisconsin will be a lock even without Ball. Think about who's in that division, Purdue and Indiana are...well Purdue and Indiana. Illinois has a weird team talent wise and a first-year head coach. PSU has no QB's and a first year head coach and rumors of a GERG-level DC, and while Ohio State is the only semi-competent one (besides Wisky) they lose their 2 best players. And even if OSU could put it all together behind Braxton they're ineligible. So it's Wisky all the way

The most interesting thing to me was the number of defensive backfields that will have new starters. Almost every team losses 1 or 2 players (except OSU) and some teams (Alabama & ND) lose their eniter defensive backfield (2 DBs and 2 S).

That said, I think the real fear arises from where the games are being played. Lots more big away games than this year and we all know winning on the road is tough regardless of the team (e.g. Iowa State over Oklahoma State).

1. In addition to what you put, MSU loses their top 2 TE's, and their 3rd and 4th string receivers in Nichol and Sonntag as well. Sonntag only caught 6 passes, but he was also their holder. Of their TE's and WR's, MSU only returns one of their top 6 receivers from last year, and their top returning guy as a reciever is a guy currently listed as a corner in Tony Lippet. Their expecting Benny Fowler, Burbridge, and Arnett to pick up the slack, but but Fowler only had 2 ctahces and was hurt all year, Burbridge will be a freshman, and Arnett may not be allowed to play.

2. OSU does lose a defensive starter in Andrew Sweat I think.

Practice makes perfect. Unless you're the Buckeyes. Then you have to cheat.

Sorry for the depth on a topic many of you might not care to know too much about, but I figured accuracy and clarity were worth a few extra sentences.

Sonntag will definitely be a loss, but much more as the holder than as a receiver. In fact, losing him at WR will be negligible, at most.

MSU had 3 starting TE's in 2011. Brian Linthicum, Garrett Celek, and Dion Sims. Sims was actually the 2nd leading receiver of the 3. It would be more fair to say that MSU is losing 2 of their top 3 TE's. That having been said, this position group could find itself in trouble as MSU likes to utilize at least 2 TE's. There has been chatter about potential juco additions to help out here, or switching one of the many athletic DE's on the roster (2 redshirted DE's worked out at TE during bowl practices).

Andrew Maxwell, next year's starting QB, will be a RS-Jr, was the backup for 3 years and is the presumed starter for 2012 and 2013. Thus far he has been impressive when on the field and has turned some heads on the practice field as well. He is considered at least as physically talented as Cousins, and likely more skilled at reading/attacking defenses. That having been said, anyone who minimizes losing Cousins as a leader and flat out winner should be smacked in the face. It's near impossible for non-coaches to know whether an untested player has the 'it' factor until he plays.

The WR group definitely will have talent, but a lack of experience makes it anyone's guess how well they perform. Tony Lippett is a two-way contributor that has yet to be assigned one way or the other. The vast majority of his snaps last year were at CB, due to injury there. Additionally, Kieth Mumphery (will be a RS-So) and Andre Sims Jr. (will be a RS-Fr) are considered more likely 'next options' at WR than Fowler. Regardless, there are many question marks here. In trying to glean a positive in this situation, it is interesting to note that Maxwell will have worked with most of these potential WR's (other than Arnett and Burbridge) on the 2nd team offense for all of the 2011 season, and with some of them in 2010 also. So despite the lack of on field experience here, there will at least be some solid familiarity between the QB and several WR's. A small step, but a step nonetheless.

Baker actually wasn't the starter by midseason, and was not as good performance-wise as Bell from day 1. In fact, in every game other than those against Youngstown State and UM, Bell had more rushing yards. Add in the game against Florida Atlantic, and you have the 3 games that Baker had a better YPC. Add OSU to those 3, and you have the 4 games that Bell didn't outgain Baker by at least 1 YPC, most of the rest being by 2 YPC or more. Losing Baker will hurt, but not nearly as much as losing Bell would have. If MSU were forced to list 1 starter, Bell would be it, without a shadow of a doubt.

In actuality, there are two starting DT's lost, as Kevin Pickelman won the starting job by the CMU game (4th game of the season). Additionally, as I'm assuming this post used MSU's depth chart for the bowl game, Blake Pacheco was not Worthy's backup throughout the season. Anthony Rashad White, who started the bowl game in place of Pickelman, was Worthy's backup.

Andrew Maxwell, next year's starting QB, will be a RS-Jr, was the backup for 3 years and is the presumed starter for 2012 and 2013. Thus far he has been impressive when on the field and has turned some heads on the practice field as well. He is considered at least as physically talented as Cousins, and likely more skilled at reading/attacking defenses. That having been said, anyone who minimizes losing Cousins as a leader and flat out winner should be smacked in the face. It's near impossible for non-coaches to know whether an untested player has the 'it' factor until he plays.

Trenton Robinson's replacement will be either a RS-So or a Jr. It is still largely up in the air, but Kurtis Drummond currently leads, and will be a RS-So.

Not sure how/if this fits into your information, but Skylar Burkland started at RT for the first 3 games of the year, and was widely considered MSU's best O-Lineman to that point. However, he was injured for the season against ND. His recovery is on schedule, but there are always question marks surrounding any player's return from a serious injury. Additionally, I have absolutely how/where he would fit into the OL in 2012, as the returning starters had performed quite well in the last several games of the season as well as against Georgia. But if he returns to form, he will upgrade the OL in some capacity.

For what it's worth (and I know it likely won't be worth much), I anticipate the same tenacity out of MSU's defense from day 1 next year. Conversely, I expect the offense to steadily grow together, making it approximately equivalent to the 2011 offense by the UM game.

Si.com projects FIVE of the departing Tide players going in the first round. I don't care what your depth chart looks like, that is a tremendous loss of talent for them. I still give umich only 30% chance of winning...but damnit I will root for it.

To augment it, we (the MGoCommunity), might want to consider making some measure of the departing player's value over his replacement. We could do this by recruiting star level, or perhaps by collegiate production (though that's not a helpful metric for a sophmore RB who has been riding pine for two years but just needs the carries to get some yards). Can anyone think of a good way to measure this?

In addition to the changes in personnel, we should also account for the changes in venue. We get MSU at home, but ND, Nebraska, and OSU all on the road. That adds a degree of difficulty that was not present this year.

Most teams around the country must lose at least five starters per year, though, right? I'd imagine that teams returning 17+ starters are relatively uncommon, so it seems that bar is set a little high for expecting the same number of wins the next year. Maybe I'm wrong?

I dont think you're wrong. At a high level, I would think if you lose more than an average number of starters, you'll do worse, and if you lose less than average, you'll do better.

The question becomes, "What's the average number of starters lost?"

I think the floor for that is something like 22 starters divided by 4 classes, so about 5 or 6. However, I would think starters are much more likely to be upperclassmen, in which case, yes, I think the 17+ bar seems unreasonable.

Sparty will still be a formittable opponent this year. Although they lose Cousins, they'll plug in a solid, although untested, four star recruit in Maxwell. Oh and did I mention Narduzzi is returning? I'd rank Narduzzi and Dantonio's defensive coaching on par with Michigan, Bama and Manny Diaz down in Texas. They'll put up a good fight.

I was of the same opinion until I thought about it a little more in depth.

At the beginning of the 2011 season, everyone said that the UM defense couldn't amount to anything. Players who were thought to be overrated, busts, or just bad players came out and were able to show their ability much better than expected. Players improved in the football basics and played very sound football.

I mean, I'm not a UM fan, but did insiders really know Kovacs could be as good of a player/leader as he was? If you did, then maybe my argument is invalid, but it seems to me that this coaching staff was able to do a phenomenal job of making due.

Note: I considered making the following statement a separate comment so this whole thing wouldn't go down in negative point flamage...

I think UM fans will get the opportunity to learn some aspects of building a team (NOTICE I did NOT say build a program, I'm not delusional). Over the last couple years, MSU has had to learn that there might be uncertainty at a couple positions, but to have faith the coaches would figure it out. Take Marcus Rush (class of 2010 DE, rivals rated as average 3-star player), for example. 1 year ago, not even the slappiest MSU slappy knew that Rush had more potential than a 2 year practice player with average hopes of cracking the 2-deep by his senior season. He redshirted, and this year came on quite strong, ultimately making the Football Writers Association's Freshman All-America team.

You might not have cared much about that, but I think it's something that UM will get to experience in 2012. Players that you weren't expecting will come out of nowhere and turn into solid contributors, maybe even studs.

UM has had it easy for the last...forever. You've known exactly who was coming up through the pipeline b/c you've had many good players. Now, players are going to surprise you. But have faith in your coaches, they're really good.

How are teams that have RS Jr's or Jr's that have been in the system at least 3 years measured? What I mean is that some teams have very capable backups who are "system" guys and can be plug and play, so there really isn't much of a loss in quality.

Offense: Remember that offense w/Posey that scored 34pts on you and was a few over throws of said Posey from beating you? Well now they have a QB that won't be a freshmen again, an actual OC, and a HC with HC experience (and oh, by the way 2 NCs). Now, I understand that Posey is gone, but he will be replaced with WRs that now have experience. The OL will be a work in progress but it should be good enough to buy Braxton enough time to throw and/or dash for first downs. He shredded your LBs and DBs pretty easily.

Defense: Luke Fickell goes back to coaching just defense full time. He returns a lot of starters. Ryan Shazier and Bradley Roby were all-B1G caliber as freshmen, should he deadly as sophs.

Not to mention that game is in Columbus, where I will remind you that you haven't won since 2000.

“Any time you give a man something he doesn't earn, you cheapen him. Our kids earn what they get, and that includes respect.” - Woody