Aided
by India’s growing outreach with both Myanmar and other Naga rebel
groups—Nagaland’s future will continue to be India-led, and
Myanmar-blessed

By Sudeep Chakravarti

There
was a buzz about Nagaland this past week, at least in regional security
and political circles, and even for those who eye business in this part
of India abutting Myanmar, where political temperatures appear to be
cooling and India’s make-nice diplomacy to counter-balance China appears
to be paying off.

Lafarge SA. Photo by Bloomberg

A
group of ambassadors from the European Union countries swung by for a
three-day tour of Nagaland earlier this week. They met top officials and
various power centres of Nagaland in Kohima, the capital set deep in
the Naga Hills; and ended their quite unusual visit with a meeting in
Dimapur—the state’s flatland commercial hub—at the local chamber of
commerce. The envoys spoke of the possibility of their countries and the
European Commission facilitating development, commerce and investment.Local
power circles were abuzz too that Lafarge SA is in preliminary
discussion with Nagaland’s leadership for establishing a limestone and
shale mining facility in south-eastern Phek district of Nagaland to feed
a planned cement plant in nearby contiguous Myanmar. This “bilateral”
model could be a template of Lafarge Umiam Mining Pvt. Ltd, a
subsidiary, with its quarrying operation in Meghalaya to feed by
conveyer a Lafarge-controlled cement plant across the border in
Bangladesh. Representatives of several hydrocarbon businesses, both
Indian and overseas, too have been nosing around, as talk builds up
about the state government considering the exploration of petroleum in
three districts of Nagaland.

Loud as these buzzes were, the
loudest was over implications of a major Naga rebel group, National
Socialist Council of Nagalim (Khaplang), whose reclusive leader, S.S.
Khaplang, an “Eastern” Naga, operates out of a base in Myanmar, signing a
ceasefire deal with Myanmar’s authorities in April. The deal replicates
the arrangement this faction has with the government of India within
the boundaries of Nagaland. But the Myanmar deal goes farther. There is
even talk of an autonomous region for Eastern Nagas.
Insiders also
mention a corollary deal—unwritten—by which the Khaplang faction will
cease to offer support and sanctuary in Myanmar to two key Manipuri
rebel groups, the United National Liberation Front and the People’s
Liberation Army. This will directly bolster India’s security construct.

The
Khaplang-led Naga rebel faction has also upped rhetoric aimed at its
chief rival, National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah, or NSCN
(I-M), the largest and most powerful Naga rebel group led by Isak
Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah, which with near-impunity runs
parallel governments in most Naga regions in India. The I-M grouping,
sometimes called “the mother of all rebel groups” for its propensity to
nurture, train and supply rebel groups in the North-East to upset
India’s equilibrium as well as keep up a stream of influence and
revenue, is also in ceasefire mode. But it has for long held out with
its demand for a greater “Nagalim” that, besides Nagaland, would include
the contiguous Naga-majority regions in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and
Assam.

In a distinct departure from its arch-rivals, leaders from
the Khaplang group have made statements about Nagaland and Naga regions
elsewhere having their unique needs and futures—a stand that pleases
India and Myanmar. A third Naga rebel faction, NSCN (Unification), also
in talks with India, has made similar noises this past week. The NSCN
(I-M) group, sensing a flanking manoeuvre—it openly accuses India of
helping things along—has hit back with strong comments, putting in doubt
an already faltering reconciliation process among various Naga rebel
groups. The Forum for Naga Reconciliation, a church- and civil
society-led initiative, has planned a reconciliation meeting on 21 May
at Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, the site of earlier reconciliation
meetings—even photo-op soccer matches in 2008 and 2009 among various
factions. The meeting early next week is in jeopardy, with both the I-M
and Khaplang factions declining to attend.
Indeed, I heard talk
among Naga security watchers in Kohima and Dimapur earlier this week
that some hardliners and “next generation” leaders in NSCN (I-M) are so
upset with the recent play of its rivals and Indian’s security mandarins
that it has prepared Plan B: breaking away from the ceasefire and
setting up safe bases along the border with China, parts of Myanmar and
Bangladesh. Should this happen, conflict will be intense and severely
affect civilians.

Equally, however, there is a parallel sentiment
that with NSCN (I-M) relatively cornered—aided by India’s growing
outreach with both Myanmar and other Naga rebel groups—Nagaland’s future
will continue to be India-led, and Myanmar-blessed. Alongside, with
Manipur’s rebels under pressure, it’s a major step to secure the region.

Sudeep Chakravarti writes on issues of conflict in South Asia. He is the author of Red Sun: Travels in Naxalite Country and the just-published Highway 39: Journeys through a Fractured Land.