Global growth will decline moderately in the coming years, both in advanced and emerging market economies. Persistent risks such as escalation of the trade war or a disorderly Brexit are a permanent concern in this slowdown.

The economic outlook for the global economy remains positive, but risks of a correction have increased sharply as a result of increasing trade tensions. Geopolitical risks and vulnerabilities in various emerging economies are also worrying.

Global economic growth accelerates this and next year. Though for many central banks their inflation target remains out of reach. As such, monetary policy normalisation is not yet on the cards, while it is needed to structurally lift economic growth.