Last year you did a reasonable job projecting contracts. However, I think you need to do a little more work considering what it might take for a player to sign with the Twins. Unless you believe that the Twins are an equally attractive place to sign a contract, your blue prints should reflect the premium the Twins might have to pay to persuade a free agent to join the organization.

Last year you did a reasonable job projecting contracts. However, I think you need to do a little more work considering what it might take for a player to sign with the Twins. Unless you believe that the Twins are an equally attractive place to sign a contract, your blue prints should reflect the premium the Twins might have to pay to persuade a free agent to join the organization.

What evidence is there that this is the case? The Twins signed Willlingham at a reasonable price, Doumit too. Maybe Carroll.

Last year you did a reasonable job projecting contracts. However, I think you need to do a little more work considering what it might take for a player to sign with the Twins. Unless you believe that the Twins are an equally attractive place to sign a contract, your blue prints should reflect the premium the Twins might have to pay to persuade a free agent to join the organization.

What evidence is there that this is the case? The Twins signed Willlingham at a reasonable price, Doumit too. Maybe Carroll.

I think there is plenty of evidence that the more attractive organizations more successfully sign free agents.

Why sign with the Twins?

Their record over the last two years? The coaching staff? The medical staff? Endorsement opportunities?

Be realistic. The only way for the Twins to separate themselves is to offer more money or more years. That should be reflected in your blue prints.

Last year you did a reasonable job projecting contracts. However, I think you need to do a little more work considering what it might take for a player to sign with the Twins. Unless you believe that the Twins are an equally attractive place to sign a contract, your blue prints should reflect the premium the Twins might have to pay to persuade a free agent to join the organization.

What evidence is there that this is the case? The Twins signed Willlingham at a reasonable price, Doumit too. Maybe Carroll.

I hope you are right about Willingham, but it is a little early to know that he will continue to be productive for two more years. Look at his drop the over the final two months with an OPS in the 750s. Look at his defense. There is no guarantee that we will look back at this contract two years from now and say that it was a reasonable deal

As for Carroll, how many other starting shortstop offers do you think came his way? Most teams believe Doumit has little defensive ability some needed to find a DH job. How many offers do you think he was juggling?

If it is your argument that the Twins can sign players that few other teams want to reasonable contracts, we agree.

Last year you did a reasonable job projecting contracts. However, I think you need to do a little more work considering what it might take for a player to sign with the Twins. Unless you believe that the Twins are an equally attractive place to sign a contract, your blue prints should reflect the premium the Twins might have to pay to persuade a free agent to join the organization.[/QUOTE]

What evidence is there that this is the case? The Twins signed Willlingham at a reasonable price, Doumit too. Maybe Carroll.[/QUOTE]

I hope you are right about Willingham, but it is a little early to know that he will continue to be productive for two more years. Look at his drop the over the final two months with an OPS in the 750s. Look at his defense. There is no guarantee that we will look back at this contract two years from now and say that it was a reasonable deal

As for Carroll, how many other starting shortstop offers do you think came his way? Most teams believe Doumit has little defensive ability some needed to find a DH job. How many offers do you think he was juggling?

If it is your argument that the Twins can sign players that few other teams want to reasonable contracts, we agree.[/QUOTE]

Jorgenswest, you seemed to infer that the estimated contract projections from last year were pretty accurate, but that there should be a higher number assumed if the Twins sign any given player. John's reply gave examples of the Twin's paying less than or equal-to-market value on the players they did sign. That seems to counter your point pretty fairly.Your next reply doesn't address the issue at all. The central issue is what the player is projected to sign for AT THE TIME OF SIGNING, not whether the player will over or under-perform the contract.

Project what players will be available and at what cost. It would be pretty silly to try and project what players would need to be paid over market to come here. Just as silly as trying to project who would accept less than market.

At the time of the signing, Carroll was an old SS. What other offers did he have to start? Where did I suggest he took less than market? It would be an easier argument to say the Twins overpaid. Last year's handbook probably had him listed for less. I believe he came to the Twins because they had more playing time to offer than he could get anywhere else.

At the time of the signing, Doumit was an injured catcher with a very poor defensive reputation. He needed a spot where he could get his bat in the game. Where else would he get more DH time?

My point was that the Twins can sign those types to reasonable (not under market!) contracts because they won't have a lot of options.

How many teams do you think offered Willingham three years? The Twins had better studied projections and mathematics about how similar players have aged into their 30s.

They can continue the cycle of mediocrity and bring in these decline phase free agents.

They can also go after free agents that might actually make a difference. Doing so they will compete with other organizations. How do they win the negotiation? Will simply matching the offer made by the Yankees, Rangers... be enough?

At the time of the signing, Carroll was an old SS. What other offers did he have to start? Where did I suggest he took less than market? It would be an easier argument to say the Twins overpaid. Last year's handbook probably had him listed for less. I believe he came to the Twins because they had more playing time to offer than he could get anywhere else.

At the time of the signing, Doumit was an injured catcher with a very poor defensive reputation. He needed a spot where he could get his bat in the game. Where else would he get more DH time?

My point was that the Twins can sign those types to reasonable (not under market!) contracts because they won't have a lot of options.

How many teams do you think offered Willingham three years? The Twins had better studied projections and mathematics about how similar players have aged into their 30s.

They can continue the cycle of mediocrity and bring in these decline phase free agents.

They can also go after free agents that might actually make a difference. Doing so they will compete with other organizations. How do they win the negotiation? Will simply matching the offer made by the Yankees, Rangers... be enough?

There are a lot of considerations that I imagine factor into FA decision-making. In the case of Willingham and Doumit, both have now wanted extensions. There are some players that will take equal or maybe less money to NOT be in NY, Boston, L.A., Chicago, etc. I am sure Jamey Carroll would like an extension too, but . . .

Last year I thought Carroll was going to get less and Willingham and Doumit more than they did.

By the way, it isn't as though they signed Willingham to a 5-year deal. 2 years left for $14 million with even 80% of 2012 production over those two years is a GREAT contract.