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Saturday, 27 September 2014

Tory Reckless defects to UKIP

Rochester & Strood, Tory majority almost 10000, MP Reckless has resigned forcing another by-election. This may not be the last Tory defection before Xmas. The Tories are starting to split. They have had enough of Cameron whom they perceive as a closet LibDem.

Things are going UKIP's way or are they? Tory defectors won't help UKIP capture Labour seats in 2015 in fact they will be a big turn off for Labour voters up North. The real danger to Labour is the SNP in Scotland. If Labour can hold on in Scotland then they are home and hosed and Ed can stop talking to strange people on Hampstead Heath. A 10% share of the vote for UKIP in England will dish the Tories and even if Labour lose half their seats in Scotland they will still have a majority given the LibDems are disintegrating and their voters will largely go to Labour.

Wheeler puts UKIP at 8 to 10 seats and Bown puts UKIP at 5 to 10 seats. Ed can live quite comfortably with that. 10 UKIP MPs are not a problem. It will leave Farage if he wins Thanet South isolated from the EU dosh in Westminster, powerless and exposed to UK media scrutiny.

The coming October by elections in Clacton and Heywood will be very interesting.