Jonathan Comey: Beating Texans pivotal for Pats

You'll hear a lot of talk between now and the start of the postseason about how playoff seeding doesn't matter that much anymore, that as long as you make the postseason anybody can win.

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By JONATHAN COMEY

southcoasttoday.com

By JONATHAN COMEY

Posted Dec. 5, 2012 at 12:01 AM

By JONATHAN COMEY
Posted Dec. 5, 2012 at 12:01 AM

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You'll hear a lot of talk between now and the start of the postseason about how playoff seeding doesn't matter that much anymore, that as long as you make the postseason anybody can win.

Look at the Packers of 2010! The Giants of 2007 and 2011! It's the Wild Wild West out there! Anything goes! Yee-haw!

This would all be great, if it were true. But it's not.

Which is why this Monday night game at Gillette Stadium with Houston is one of the biggest regular-season games of the Brady-Belichick era, and will go a long way toward deciding New England's 2012 fate.

A win, and the Patriots are looking very good to earn one of the top two seeds in the AFC and the coveted first-round bye. A loss, and their odds of ultimate glory drop significantly.

How significantly might surprise you.

Since the NFL went to the eight-division format in 2002, teams that have earned the top two seeds in their conference (and the first-round bye that goes with it) have decidedly outperformed their lesser cohorts.

The stats tell the story pretty nicely:

61 percent of teams seeded 1 and 2 have reached the conference title game; 31 percent made the Super Bowl.

19 percent of teams seeded 3 through 6 have reached the conference title game; 9 percent of these teams made the Super Bowl.

In other words, getting that bye improves your chances of playing in the Super Bowl by a whopping three times.

That is a very big deal.

A couple of reporters, including me, tried to engage Bill Belichick on the subject in his Tuesday conference call, with a predictable lack of success. The man knows how to play defense against the media, and just won't engage on anything beyond this week's opponent or the Xs and Os of the game.

In a nutshell, his view is this: if you're good enough, and you play well, you'll win, and that's that, whether you're home or away.

"I think winning games has a lot more to do with how well you play than where you play them — not that it isn't nice to be at home and all that, but it's a lot better to play well," he said.

And then he added, almost under his breath, "I don't think the home field helped us too much against Arizona."

Like they always say, the wins don't feel half as good as the losses break your heart.

Belichick preaches worrying about what you control, and his team does control its own fate, more or less. Win their final four games, and the Patriots are almost certainly going to be seeded first or second. They own the tie-breaker with Denver, which is also 9-3, and Baltimore (also 9-3) has a brutal closing schedule. A win over Houston, and New England would need only to win out and have Houston lose one of its last three to become the No. 1 seed.

"We can't do anything about anybody else," Belichick said. "All we can do anything about is the New England Patriots. So, we try to just concentrate on what we have to do and it will all get sorted out in the end."

Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for The Standard-Times. Email him: jcomey@s-t.com

A closer look at the four division leaders, and how it might all sort itself out:

Current record: 9-3

The schedule: The Texans and 49ers are both strong teams — the two best all-around teams in the league in terms of balance, in fact. But they are both coming to Foxboro, where New England is 19-2 since 2010. Weeks 16 and 17 are pretty much slam dunks.

How they're playing: New England is on a pretty nice roll, and Tom Brady has been so good for so long that you take it as a given — he's never finished outside of the top 10 league-wide in passer rating in any of his 11 seasons discounting the 2008 lost to injury. Still, it was a bit disconcerting to see a less-than-healthy Sebastian Vollmer get pushed around by Cameron Wake last week, and Rob Gronkowski's absence is notable. The defense will have to be extremely sharp — as it was against Miami last week — because the offense probably won't be dominant these next two games.

Projection: 12-4 to be sure, with 13-3 a possibility.

Current record: 9-3

The schedule: Baltimore definitely has the toughest road of the AFC's top four — in fact, depending on how they look at Washington, they could be an underdog even in their home games. All four games are against playoff-caliber teams with something to play for, and the loss last week to Charlie Batch and the Steelers was a real blow.

How they're playing: The Ravens' offense was supposed to have taken a quantum leap forward, but they've been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last eight outings. The defense hasn't been lost without Ray Lewis, though, and has stabilized nicely — give credit to one of the best organizations in the league for championship cohesion when things go off track.

Projection: The Ravens are going to be hard pressed to even split and finish 11-5, and 10-6 wouldn't surprise me. They do have the tie-breaker with New England, but I'd be surprised if the Patriots weren't at last a game clear of Baltimore when it's all said and done.

Current record: 11-1

The schedule: It's a pretty tough stretch. The Colts are playing for the playoffs, and a trip to New England is no fun. And while you'd figure a win at home against Minnesota will happen, Adrian Peterson has been quite an equalizer for the Vikings this year. Houston already has big road wins in Chicago and Denver under its belt.

How they're playing: "I don't think it's a stretch to say this is going to be a big challenge for us," Josh McDaniels said of Houston Monday, alluding specifically to the defense. "They have talented players at every level of their defense and they're obviously very well coached, so we're going to have to do a great job in preparing for them this week." Houston's D is more solid than spectacular, though, and got torched by Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford (12 combined TDs, no INTs). On offense, they've been very solid, and have the best tailback-receiver-tackle trio in the league in Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and Duane Brown.

Projection: 14-2 if they beat New England, 13-3 if they don't.

Current record: 9-3

The schedule: Easy pickings. The only game you figure they might lose is at Baltimore, but I'd pick Denver the way they're playing — which is like the Giants play when they get on Super Bowl runs, passing it Manning-style and setting the edge with style.

How they're playing: Other than some turnover problems on offense (at least one in every game this year), they're looking real good — seven wins in a row, by an average of 12.3 points a game. Von Miller has probably edged past J.J. Watt in the Defensive Player of the Year race, and the secondary is excellent.

Projection: Like the Patriots, I'd go with 12-4 on as a minimum, but I'd bet 13-3.

Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for The Standard-Times. Email him: jcomey@s-t.com