Economics news and insight from our team.

US Treasuries Never Wrong – well, not really

This is an animation showing the 3 month US treasury yield (blue line) versus the implied forward yield curve (red). The forward yield is estimated looking at the yields on 3, 6, 9 mo and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year government bonds. The blue highlighted area shows where the yield curve underestimated actual results and the ping highlighted area shows overestimations.