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A FWIW Note

I just received a call from a colleague asking me for a few thoughts, once we ended, I thought I’d share a few responses (actually one) to their inevitable inquiry of, “…and what are your thoughts on this current market hitting all time highs, again?”

Here is a summary of my response for anyone wanting to know…

In a nutshell we could be reaching that moment of time where everything lines in ways where the dominoes, if you will, are all lined up and all it takes is just the slightest movement, at the right place, and at the wrong time, that puts the inevitable “domino effect” into motion.

You can use other analogies like, “The perfect storm”, “The butterfly effect”, et cetera. But what I believe is this: Currently, they all fit.

Use whatever one you like, but this may be that moment in time where these types of analogies to instill caution have their genesis. Again, doesn’t mean it’s an inevitability. The warning, if you will, is for making sure one applies the watchful eye for further signs as to act appropriately, should they appear. So with that said, here’s what I’m alluding to…

The current timing and “market” moves are important for this reason: Is this all – end of the month window dressing; bolstered via near guarantee of no Fed, action for at least a few more weeks; buttressed by the tax bill possibly being voted on before that end ensuring an assumed (that is if it passes) significant “pop” even higher?

The flip side: And what happens if by late Wednesday or Thursday the “tax bill” much like the healthcare debacle is rendered D.O.A? Will there be a mad dash to “sell everything” to lock in gains for both the end-of-month, and quite possibly the year? And if so? Does it cascade into December 1 on Friday?

These can only be answered hypothetically and under the veil using the technical term of “wild-ass-guesses.”

No one knows, however, one needs to think about it, because what is beyond questioning is this: We. Are. Here. And precisely at this confluence of possibilities, as in: Either we “dodge-the-bullet.” Or, the light of what seemed was at the end of the proverbial tunnel is actually a bullet-train and the “market” is straddled across the track doing its best imitation of a deer stuck in the headlights.

Personally, with the hype I see taking place around such things as Bitcoin™, apps for “set it and forget it” investing, and a “market” still under the illusion that the BTFD investing strategy can not fail, has taken on a real posture of surrealism when looking at it from afar, with any objective reasoning. It’s as if 2007/08 never did happen, yet worse, as thinking now goes, “Never will.”

This is (again, all opinion) that moment in time which: It is – what it is – till it isn’t.

And that “isn’t” already has 2 No votes openly declared against it, with another 6 openly opposed, but yet not officially declared as a: No.

Just one more, and this tax bill isn’t going to see the light out of committee, let alone day. And that isn’t what this market expects. And then it will be a mad rush to figure out what to do with the meaning of “is” rather than “isn’t.” As in: The final straw of the hopium trifecta aka “The Trump Trade, e.g., Any – true healthcare reform, true regulatory reform, true tax reform passed and signed before year-end goes from isn’t DOA. To is.

And that’s when the definition of “is” becomes very relevant indeed.

As always, we shall see. But the length of time for that vision, I’m afraid, is not over the proverbial horizon. But rather…

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