Pari-mutuel betting, for better or worse, is in my blood. My maternal grandfather spent every day for 60 years plying the greyhound tracks of South Florida and Massachusetts, and there’s enough of him in me to draw me to Belmont Park every time there’s a shot at the thoroughbred Triple Crown. There’s also enough of him in me to know that while I can’t guarantee that California Chrome will win the 146th Belmont Stakes, becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, I can guarantee there’s a sure thing for anyone who wants to bet the race.

This opportunity comes courtesy of twin forces: history and hype. Some 15 million people will be watching the race tomorrow, and about 14.9 million of them will be pulling for California Chrome. Hundreds of thousands of those will put their money where their heart is, and bet on him.

The result, in betting parlance: an “underlay” – a horse that goes of at odds lower than market forces would ordinarily dictate.

Kentucky Derby 2014-0186 (Photo credit: Bill Brine)

Tomorrow’s underlay will be one of the biggest of all-time. California Chrome was made the 3-5 favorite by the track’s handicappers yesterday. That means if you bet $5, you’ll win $3 atop your original wager – less than even-money. The Daily Racing Form goes even lower: 2-5.

The wise track mandarins, in other words, are planning to pay off at a rate than roughly translates to a horse with a 66% chance of winning.

Which is, of course, poppycock. Why would a horse – any horse – be rated more than a 50-50 shot at a race that has seen 11 consecutive aspirants, including some great ones like Spectacular Bid and Big Brown and Smarty Jones, show up at the Belmont with the Triple Crown on the line only to get beaten? Especially when virtually no horse who enters the “test of champions” has ever competed at the race’s distance, 1 ½ miles.

And California Chrome’s odds will face yet more downward pressure, as thousands bet it to win – thus knocking down the payoff if it does – with no intention of cashing their ticket. A Triple Crown-winning ticket as a $2 collector’s item.

At least those scrapbookers are acting rationally: the uncashed $2 tickets from Affirmed’s Belmont win currently selling on eBay go for around $150 -- a very solid 12.74% annual return. Those planning to actually make money on Chrome by spitting into the face of the underlay, though, are making one of the dumbest bets possible in a horse race.

Which is why, when I’m at Belmont tomorrow, pulling hard for California Chrome to make history, I’ll be betting big that he doesn't.