Blair Faces a Battle for the E.U. Presidency

By STEPHEN CASTLE

Published: July 16, 2009

STRASBOURG -- His interest in the job was one of the worst-kept secrets in British politics. But on Wednesday Britain's former prime minister, Tony Blair, was finally named as a candidate for a new presidential post in the European Union.

In apparently unscripted comments, the European Minister for Britain, Glenys Kinnock, made it clear that Mr. Blair wanted the position and had the blessing of the British government.

''The U.K. government is supporting Tony Blair's candidature,'' Ms. Kinnock said. ''I am sure they would not do it without asking him.''

Designed to raise the E.U.'s profile globally, the presidential post is seen by some as the answer the Henry Kissinger's question: ''Who do I call if I want to talk to Europe?''

But, despite worldwide recognition, a decade in No. 10 Downing Street and two years as a Middle East envoy, Mr. Blair's ascendancy to this top EU job is far from assured. And Ms. Kinnock' scomments reported Wednesday may not have helped. Being a front-runner can often be uncomfortable. It makes you a target, and gives opponents time to organize against you. And the position depends on the passage of the Lisbon Treaty, the new European charter that still needs to go to a second referendum in Ireland in October, and complete ratification in the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany.

Although Ms. Kinnock made it clear that she was referring to a situation in which Lisbon was ratified, talking about presidential candidates is frowned upon because it implies that a yes vote in Ireland is being taken for granted. E.U. officials are concerned that this could cause a backlash by Irish voters.

A spokesman for Mr. Blair, Matthew Doyle, played down the comments. ''As we have said time and again on this,'' he said in an e-mailed statement, ''there is nothing to be a candidate for since the job doesn't actually exist. Mr. Blair remains focused on his role in the Middle East.''

If the treaty is ratified, the fate of Mr. Blair's candidacy will be decided by European leaders in October. It will depend in part on whether they want to be represented by a political heavyweight who has a higher profile than most of them. It also rests on the question of whether Mr. Blair's support for the American-led invasion of Iraq has been forgiven by his many European critics.

Last year Mr. Blair appeared to have won the potentially-crucial support of Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France, though there is some speculation that Paris has now warmed to the former Spanish prime minister, Felipe Gonz?z. Other possible contenders include the prime minister of France, Fran?s Fillon, and the former chancellor of Austria, Wolfgang Sch?l.

Ms. Kinnock said that Mr. Blair was ''seen by many as someone who has the strength of character, the stature, people know who he is.'' He would, she added, ''be generally welcomed'' and would win the backing of the center-left bloc in the E.U. to which Britain's Labour Party is affiliated.

However she qualified that statement by adding that center-left allies would give Mr. Blair ''a sympathetic response but it depends who else is in the frame.''

Martin Schulz, leader of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, said it was ''strange to discuss such a matter before the Lisbon Treaty is in force'' and that Mr. Blair was not his preferred candidate. ''Those who are mentioned first have the least chance,'' he added.

Recent disquiet over the re-appointment of Jos?anuel Barroso as European Commission president has galvanized opposition in some countries to those who -- like Mr. Blair -- advocate a free-market economic philosophy.

Given his political weakness at home, the support of the prime minister of Britain, Gordon Brown, will be of limited help for Mr. Blair. Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany, is not believed to support Mr. Blair and wants a Franco-German agreement on a candidate.

The discussion of Mr. Blair's candidacy Wednesday came as the prime minister of Sweden, Fredrik Reinfeldt, outlined the priorities for his country's six-month presidency of the E.U., including securing agreement on tightening financial regulation and on the effort to fight climate change.

''We must restore confidence in the financial markets,'' he told the European Parliament. ''We must quickly put into place a strengthened supervisory system to prevent similar crises from occurring in the future.''

Mr. Reinfeldt said he hoped to reach an agreement on a common E.U. position for climate talks in Copenhagen in December. The E.U. is divided on how to pay for efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions blamed for global warming.

''We must show leadership and stand by our promises,'' Mr. Reinfeldt said. ''Europe has a crucial role in getting others to sign up to a global agreement.''

Meanwhile there was a setback for the opposition Conservative Party in Britain, which left the European Parliament's main center-right grouping to form a 55-strong bloc with the Czech O.D.S. party and Poland's Law and Justice, but which was forced to surrender its leadership of the fledgling group. A Polish deputy, Michal Kaminski, will now lead the grouping, though the British Conservatives have substantially more deputies than Poland within the bloc.