Turkey Could Emerge as a New Threat in Iraq

by Jim Lobe

ARBIL - Growing confrontation between Iraqi Kurds and neighboring Turkey presents
a new threat to a fragile calm in the north.

Tensions have run high between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey since the U.S.-led invasion
of Iraq in 2003, but they were further exacerbated last month when Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Teyyip Erdogan threatened to send forces to northern Iraq.

The aim, Erdogan said, was to crack down on guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers'
Party (PKK) and to protect the rights of ethnic Turkomens in the oil-rich city
Kirkuk.

"There are efforts to alter the demographic structure of Kirkuk. We cannot
remain a bystander to such developments," Erdogan told members of his ruling
Justice and Development Party Jan. 17.

Some Kurdish leaders fear a new war front could open up in Iraq's northern
Kurdistan region, which has been by far the safest part of the war-torn country.
They fear this could open the door for further intervention by other regional
powers like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

While Turkey speaks of the PKK and Turkomens' rights in Iraq to justify any
possible military invasion, some analysts speak of its other intentions.

"One clear reason for military invasion by Turkey would be their old ambition
to re-annex Mosul 'Vilayet' (province) to its territory. They are still thinking
in terms of the old Ottoman empire," Ata Qaradakhi, a political analyst
from Sulaimaniya in Kurdistan told IPS.

Iraq's major northern provinces which were once a part of the Mosul Vilayet
under the Ottoman empire were incorporated into the Iraqi state when it was
founded in the early years of the 20th century by Britain.

"Turkish leaders are also worried over the growing influence and authority
of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq since the fall of Saddam, and fear
it could inspire their own Kurdish population," Qaradakhi added.

Over the past few weeks, movements by Turkish troops on the border with Iraq
are reported to have increased. Turkey has deployed around 240,000 troops on
the border strip with Iraq, and has bombarded areas within northern Iraqi Kurdistan
region several times over the past eight months.

In the 1990s, Turkish troops carried out cross-border operations in pursuit
of PKK guerrillas based in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The Kurdistan regional parliament held a meeting last week to discuss increasing
threats of a Turkish military invasion.

"It is true that we must be on alert, and careful, but shouldn't attach
too much importance to threats by the Turkish parliament or other parties (in
that country)," Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan
Barzani told parliament.

"Under Iraq's current circumstances, neither Turkey nor any other (regional)
country can send troops to Iraq. Then the issue wouldn't be only Kurds, it would
be the issue of violating the sovereignty of another state, that's Iraq."

Kurds count on the presence of U.S. troops as a bulwark against any regional
threats.

But several Kurdish politicians sharply criticized the government of Shi'ite
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for not reacting strongly enough to Turkish threats.

Turkey has called on Iraqis to change constitutional Article 140, which sets
out a roadmap to bring normalcy to the disputed oil-rich city Kirkuk in the
north. The city has large numbers of ethnic Arabs, Turkomens and Kurds. The
Turkish demand, which seeks more for Turkomens in the city, has sparked angry
reactions in Kurdish circles.

"Turkey must give others the rights which it gives to itself," Ghafour
Makhmouri, a Kurdish lawmaker said during the parliament session.

"We have also the right to demand changes in Turkish constitution regarding
the rights of millions of Kurds in Turkey, the same way that Turkey assumes
the right to ask for the rights of Turkomens in Iraq."

Kurds hope that once Article 140 is executed, they can vote to bring the province
within their autonomous region.

Meanwhile the Turkish government stopped fuel trucks from crossing its border
to Iraq this week. It said it will not accept the Kurdistan Regional Government
as a legitimate partner for sending fuel to Iraq, and would sign deals only
with the Iraqi central government.

But many believe Turkey will not go so far as to invade Iraq. Apart from other
things, that would thwart Turkish hopes of joining the European Union, Qaradakhi
said.

"Kurds in Iraq can also create problems for Turkey just as much as Turkey
can do. They can use the Kurdish card in Turkey to create unrest there, and
Turkey knows that that wouldn't serve Turkish interests."

Jim
Lobe, works as Inter Press Service's
correspondent in the Washington, D.C., bureau. He has followed the
ups and downs of neo-conservatives since well before their rise in
the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

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