8/22/2008 @ 7:10AM

Iran Confrontation Coming

After four years of intense but ineffective diplomacy Israel and the U.S. will soon decide whether or not the murderous mullahs of Iran will get the bomb. Steps short of war are still possible, but time is running out. Iran is heavily dependent on gasoline imports. A blockade would quickly bring the enfeebled Iranian economy to its knees. Unemployment is high, and not even burgeoning oil revenue is enough to buy off the populace. Even the French oil company Total is pulling out.

Israeli intelligence believes Tehran will have a nuclear device by the end of 2009. Our own intelligence puts the date between 2010 and 2015. Iran’s recent missile tests demonstrate that it is fully capable of delivering the bomb anywhere in Europe. By using a ship Iran could easily lob one into the U.S. Most of Europe, Russia and China, as well as the U.S. State Department, think the world should learn to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, even one run by bloodthirsty zealots. After all, the Islamic fascists’ real target is not them but Israel.

The problem for Israel is acute. One or two nuclear weapons could virtually wipe out its population. Israel does not have an effective missile defense system, either for ballistic missiles or Hezbollah rockets fired from Lebanon. Moreover, next year the Russians will be delivering an antiaircraft system to Iran that, when operational, will pose real problems for Israeli bombers.

If Senator Barack Obama wins the U.S. presidential election in November, the Israelis will feel intense pressure to act before he takes the oath of office in January. If Senator John McCain wins, the Israelis may feel there are a few more months before an irrevocable decision must be made. McCain might well have the fortitude to impose a blockade, but Obama certainly will not. The odds that President Bush will have the U.S. destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are almost nil.

Unless there is a regime change in Iran (the army may decide to take matters into its own hands) or, miraculously, the clerical extremists decide to give up their nuclear ambitions, the Israelis will strike. The war will be ugly. It will take several days of strikes to truly damage Iran’s nuclear facilities. And Iran will launch retaliatory missiles against Israel.

Worse, the Israelis will be battling on several fronts. In 2006, when Israel invaded Lebanon to neutralize Iran-supported Hezbollah, that fanatical army had about 14,000 rockets. Today Hezbollah has some 40,000 rockets. In 2006 Hezbollah fired off thousands of rockets into Israel. While the casualties were few, the disruptions were many, as more than 200,000 Israelis moved to the south of the country. This time there will be many more disruptions and casualties. Hamas, which rules Gaza and has great influence over much of the other Palestinian territories, will also fire rockets into Israel, as well as try to send in suicide bombers. Iran will put pressure on its semisatellite, Syria, to fight Israel–which is why the Israeli government has been working overtime to see if it can reach a peace agreement with Damascus.

The impact on the rest of the world will be severe, as Iran will–at least temporarily–block shipments of oil from Iraq and the other Gulf states by firing missiles at tankers.

Will Washington be better prepared for what may happen between Israel and Iran than it has been for the credit crisis?

Raising the highest federal tax take on income to over 50% would slam the economy hard by punishing success. High tax rates have been the principal barrier to growth in western Europe. High-tax countries such as Germany and France consider themselves in a boom when their growth rates reach an anemic 2%.

Weakening long-term economic growth seems a peculiar way to meet Social Security’s gargantuan obligations to the 78 million baby boomers who are just starting to retire and draw benefits.

Obama’s plan is a destructive form of double taxation. Money he would supposedly raise from the higher tax will be promptly spent by Washington politicians. The Social Security system will receive yet another nonmarketable IOU from the Treasury Department. When the Social Security Trust Fund turns in the IOU, the federal government will have to find new money to make good on that IOU: more taxes.

There’s another big problem with Obama’s risky scheme: The biggest job creators in the American economy are small businesses. What Obama and his ilk don’t recognize is that most small businesses are taxed at personal income tax rates. Thus, their profits will be hit by his higher taxes.

Is that the kind of change we really want?

Unholey

We’re coming up to the seventh anniversary of the attack on the Twin Towers at the World Trade Center. Thanks to political ineptitude of unimaginable proportions, plans have been proposed, money has been spent and announcements have been made–but nothing has happened at Ground Zero. The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey, which owns the site, makes Washington bureaucracies look like Olympic sprinters.

Our next President should issue an ultimatum to the politicians of New York and New Jersey: Quickly get your act together or the White House will take over the site. The President should then appoint developer Larry Silverstein to build two new towers. As pundit (and New Yorker) Deroy Murdock recently observed: “Right across Vesey Street from this shambles, veteran real estate magnate Larry Silverstein produced 7 World Trade Center, an elegant, 52-story high-rise that glistens by day and glows by night. Opened just four years and eight months after Sept. 11, and now 75% full, it is this lugubrious spot’s only sign of hope. The difference? Silverstein manages this project with limited government interference. Conversely, 19 bureaucracies wrestle him at Ground Zero.”

Silverstein had signed a 99-year lease on the World Trade Center site just before Sept. 11. So return the lease to him with minimal conditions, and let him get on with the job.

KOs from Kellerman

Jonathan Kellerman (Ballantine Books). anyone who thinks human nature is perfectible hasn’t read the absorbing, jolting novels of Jonathan Kellerman. The hero in most of his books is psychologist Alex Delaware, the shrink the Los Angeles Police Department calls when it needs a consultant. The man Delaware works with in the lapd is an unforgettably droll detective, Milo Sturgis: 6 foot 2, homely, badly dressed and rumpled, with his more than ample girth proof of his love for doughnuts. And just to make things interesting, Sturgis is gay. The crimes these two end up tackling are an eye-opening array of deadly depravity.

Rage ($7.99). The recently released killer of a 2-year-old girl calls Delaware to set up a meeting. This man and his sidekick committed the murder when they were juveniles, and Delaware’s testimony helped put them away. Is the man out for revenge? Before Delaware can find out, the killer himself is killed. As the body count grows, we are introduced to eye-opening characters, including two who run a foster home and preach Christianity but belong in hell.

Gone ($7.99). The apparent kidnapping of two aspiring actors turns out to be an appalling publicity stunt. Then one of the stuntsters, a girl, is found dead. More trouble follows before justice finally prevails. It turns out that the young actors had fallen prey to predators, including a peculiar acting coach and a would-be real estate tycoon.

Obsession ($9.99). A teenage girl whom Delaware had treated for obsessive-compulsive disorder as a child suddenly wants to see him. The girl’s aunt–and adoptive mother–has made a stunning deathbed confession. The ensuing investigation triggers murderous steps to cover up a series of old crimes.

Compulsion ($27). The killer in this tale has a yen for fancy cars and is full of spine-tingling audacity when he commits his crimes. Delaware and Sturgis have their work cut out for them as they try to find the links between the deaths of a party-loving young woman, a retired schoolteacher, two women murdered years back in a desolate town’s beauty parlor and the long-ago disappearance of a boy who’d been soliciting magazine subscriptions. Side note: New Yorkers will get a chuckle out of Delaware’s visit to the Big
Apple
.

Carry these novels with you or download them into your Kindle so you can immerse yourself in Kellerman’s mayhem while you experience those interminable airport delays.

Edible enlightenment from our eatery expert Tom Jones and colleagues Patrick Cooke and Monie Begley, as well as brothers Bob, Kip and Tim.

Scarpetta– 355 West 14th St. (Tel.: 212-691-0555). This casually chic place takes its name from the Italian custom of sopping up sauce with bread–and the sauces here are spectacular, as are the four breads. Also first-rate: fritto misto, polenta, turbot, the pastas and the apple “pie” (which totally reinvents that staple).

TBAR Steak & Lounge– 1278 Third Ave., between 73rd and 74th streets (Tel.: 212-772-0404). A neighborhood spot that has yet to define itself. The menu offers a wide variety of dishes–from chicken wings to tuna sashimi to macaroni and cheese to filet mignon to banana parfaits. Alas, it doesn’t manage to do any of them very well–quite expensive for not particularly good diner fare.

Park Avenue Summer– 100 East 63rd St. (Tel.: 212-644-1900). The kitchen consistently produces food that is delicious, innovative and beautifully presented. A normally prosaic prosciutto and melon appetizer is transformed into an opulent and exquisite taste treat, the veal chop defies comparison, the Dover sole is perfect, and the side dishes are scrumptious. The caveat: The service is haphazard, harried and sometimes rude.