Author
Topic: 75 for 75 - Center Field (Read 422 times)

1) Andy Ping * 2021 - 2036Despite the fact that Andy Ping played his entire career with two other Hall of Famers (Donnie Bremer & Todd Neary), he never won an NPBL championship. In fact, he never even played in the championship series. This trio made the playoffs 9 times, but was always bounced before reaching the big stage. As amazing as this seems, it is not unusual. The New Mexico Dukes of 2000-2020 had overlapping careers of four Hall of Famers: Tanner Chayse (2000-2017), Malachi Sain (2000-2010), Steven Williams (2002-2017) and John Baptista (2006-2020). Yet the Dukes were only able to make the playoffs ONE time (2008), and in that single appearance they were knocked out in the LCS. In addition to that, the Michigan Militia of 2030 to 2050 also had 4 HoF with overlapping careers: Ed Hansen (2031-2048), Mark Sims (2037-2055), Rogelio Pessoa (2030-2043) and Keith Knapp (2030-2047). Those players made the playoffs 11-13 times, but never reached the finals. Here is a list of all the Hall of Fame players that never played in a National Cup:

3) Felton Olney * 2013 - 2029In 2013, Felton Olney was the #2 overall draft choice. He went on to win the Bick Horizon (Rookie of the Year) Award in the GEL that same year (2013). Which of these two is more valuable? Said another way: If your team was to be given either the Bick Award winner or the 1.02 draft slot, which would you choose?The club of players that have won the Bick include some of the greatest of all-time: Walt Geldorf, Buzzy Stevens, Andy Dwyer, Santo Tedesco, Michael Koo Jr… but it also includes a fair number of players in which winning the Bick was the career highlight. In fact, of the 140 players that won a Bick (in either league) between 2001 and 2070, 60 of those players did not make a 75 for 75 list. Basically, that means that owning a Bick Award means you have a little better than a 50/50 chance of having an above-average career.The average rank points for Bick winners is 27.21. Recall that rank points is 76-Rank where rank is where the player was ranked on the 75 for 75 list, except for starting pitchers where rank points is (301-Rank)/4 (rounded up). Knowing this average rank points value allows us to compare to the value of a draft slot (covered in LF Dale Couch #4). Below is the table of draft slot values for the top 10:

Draft Position

Expected Rank Points

1.01

35.05

1.02

28.69

1.03

24.11

1.04

20.69

1.05

18.04

1.06

15.94

1.07

14.24

1.08

12.83

1.09

11.65

1.10

10.65

Therefore, it is slightly more preferable to own the 1.02 draft slot than it is to own the Bick Award winner.

4) Lewis Payne * 2058 - 2070I had it in my notes to cover draft years under Lewis Payne. Payne was drafted 1.15 in the 2055 draft. The 2055 draft class had a total of 485 rank points, which ranks 27th out of 69 – a very middle-of-the-pack draft class. I think when I made that note, I was mixing up Lewis Payne with Blair Payton (which for some reason I often seem to do). Blair Payton (ranked #16 CF) was part of the notoriously weak 2011 draft class. Anyway, since I’ve introduced the topic, I’ll continue with it. What is the weakest draft class in the history of the NPBL?The bottom 5:5. The 2059 draft class (167 total rank points)

Player

Draft Position

Rank

Spencer Richardson

1.04 (NC)

2B #26

Diego Santana

1.21 (UT)

3B #28

Daniel Cooper

1.09 (MN)

2B #32

Carlos Hernández

3.24 (NV)

1B #51

The other top 10 draft selections that did not achieve a 75 for 75 rank:1.01 (CO) – Tom Cannon – Left the NPBL to pursue another sport1.02 (KS) – Ron Arrington – Bullpen fodder1.03 (WA) – Micah Yockey – Spent 4.5 years in the starting rotation with little success1.05 (CA) – Todd Holcomb – Only spent parts of 2 years in the majors1.06 (NS) – Rafael Rangel – Part-time bullpen member for about 10 years1.07 (MI) – Chris O’Day – Starting pitcher for one season (when he lost 20 games) and a below-average close for another 7 seasons1.08 (MA) – Frasco Andunvar – A promising start (17-11 3.47) that derailed.1.10 (NM) – James Quintana – Bick Horizon Award winner, but after a concussion injury in 2067, he was never the same.

4. The 2063 draft class (162 total rank points)

Player

Draft Position

Rank

Sandro González

1.22 (UT)

C #19

Juan Miranda

1.23 (NS)

SP #100

Juan Rivera

1.19 (PA)

1B #48

An-yi Pei

1.01 (IL)

RF #59

Jeffery Santos

1.08 (ID)

SP #263

The other top 10 draft selections that did not achieve a 75 for 75 rank:1.02 (MN) – Raul Espinosa – Topped out at the AA level1.03 (VA) – Juan Cruz – Only one year with over 200 at-bats in the majors1.04 (WA) – Jason Galloway – Only two (unimpressive) years with over 200 ML at-bats1.05 (MI) – Eric Narborough – Relief ace for one year for MI. Traded to ID and did well for 3 years as starter. Then shoulder injuries took their toll.1.06 (TN) – Mike Thomas – Average (maybe below average) starter for many years. Currently ranks as #4921.07 (MD) – Raul Ramirez – Part-time starter, part-time starter for many years for MD. 1.09 (HI) – Jack Perez – Given opportunity for 3 years as a youngster, but flopped.1.10 (KS) – Victor Granados – Never made the majors

3. The 2038 draft class (79 total rank points)

Player

Draft Position

Rank

Evan Dixon

1.06 (CO)

1B #23

Scott Alexander

1.19 (MN)

CF #61

Slippery Mike Hunter

1.01 (PA)

SP #277

Ángel Escobar

4.03 (NM)

RF #71

The other top 10 draft selections that did not achieve a 75 for 75 rank:1.02 (TX) – Ridge Carrillo – Colorado tried him in the rotation several times, but he couldn’t hold down the job. 1.03 (NM) – Evan Adams – Served 10+ years as the regular 3B, but he wasn’t anything too special. Ranks #115 for 3B.1.04 (LA) – Roberto Mendez – Played in the majors for about 10 years, but like Adams, was nothing special. Ranks #103 for LF.1.05 (NJ) – Sparky Adams – Another 10+ year, average player. I’m sensing a theme here. Ranks #155 for catchers1.07 (MS) – Henry Burke – Looks like an injury derailed his career after 5 (average) years.1.08 (KS) – Ernie Fossil – Continuing the theme…Part-time starter, part-time bullpen for about 10 years.1.09 (UT) – Domingo Jimenez – Ranks #251 for CF

2. The 2011 draft class (78 total rank points)

Player

Draft Position

Rank

Blair Payton

1.05 (NV)

CF #16

Octavio Romero

2.22 (NY)

RF #58

The other top 10 draft selections that did not achieve a 75 for 75 rank:1.01 (CA) – James Gaunt - Could barely hit his weight (.218) as a part-time player for 10 years.1.02 (FL) – Tyler Johnson – Only one year with more than 200 at-bats1.03 (DC) – Larry Misner – A tiny bit of power to go with a lot of strikeouts and a poor average in his 5 year career.1.04 (KS) – Timothy Midgette – Never made the majors1.06 (WA) – Gino Vera – Ranks as the #100 1B.1.07 (TX) – Curtis Yoo – Nine years as a starter. Just misses the cutoff ranking. He is #302 as a SP.1.08 (MA) – Lester Griffey – Ranks as #104 as a 2B.1.09 (NC) – Brad Flavin – Ranked #96 as a RP1.10 (CT) – Danny Contreras – Only lasted 5 years in the majors as a utility player.

1. The 2069 draft class (0 total rank points)It’s possible that the 2069 draft class is a little too soon to know. An 18 year-old draftee would be 24 or 25 by the time of the 75 for 75 ranking. While that may be too soon to make an impact on the rankings, it is enough time to know whether or not he will develop. Looking at the top 10 drafted players:1.01 (MI) – John Peterson - Now 26 years old and a regular member of the Militia starting rotation. His statistics say that he is basically an average starting pitcher. His Stuff rating says he could be more than that, but his Movement and Control will probably always limit him. At his current trajectory, he is unlikely to earn any ranking points.1.02 (CA) – Juan Castillo – Now 29 years old and playing as the Lions regular LF. He is currently ranked at #102 for LF. If Castillo continues to compile years similar to his history, he is unlikely to improve his ranking by much.1.03 (UT) – Pat Hall – Now 28 years old and pitching in the Scorpions rotation (when not injured). He was outstanding in 2075 (19-9 2.77), but otherwise has been average. Projecting his career from this point is uncertain.1.04 (HI) – Matt Smith – Now 27 and serving as a backup infielder for the Kula Sox. Doesn’t look like he’ll ever be anything more than that.1.05 (GA) – Joe Gonzales – Currently 28 years old and ranked #110 at first base. Gonzales has the ratings to continue to climb up and up the rankings1.06 (MD) – Eric Corrigan – Now 28 and currently sitting in AAA. He looks destined to be nothing better than a backup OF.1.07 (TN) – Gary Edwards – Currently 28 years old and a regular member of the Hounds rotation. Edwards is the #4 starter and that looks like that will be his destiny for the rest of his career.1.08 (LA) – Billy Sol Hardwhistle – Age 29 and just getting his first taste of the majors. Not likely to improve the stock of this draft class.1.09 (WA) – Will Giblett – Now 28 years old and a perennial all-star due to his 5-tool abilities. He falls just outside the rankings (#82 for CF), but he probably would make the list if he continues his career arc. I would estimate he could end up somewhere in the 50ish range.1.10 (NV) – Ubaldo Giacobone – Now 24 years old and has the potential rankings to be someone. Having a great year so far in 2076. Similar ratings to the #1 overall pick in this year.A quick glance through the rest of the draft class shows some other potential gems: 1.13 Miguel Ramirez and 1.24 Rudy O’Neill.In order for the 2069 draft class to move out of the “worst ever” ranking, they need one of two things to happen: (1) to go the route of the 2011 draft, they need a player to have a hall of fame career in the mold of Blair Payton or (2) to go the route of the 2038 draft, they need a player to have a very, very good career in the mold of Evan Dixon and 3-4 players to also rank. Joe Gonzales (1.05) looks like the best bet to lead the draft class. Whether or not he has it in him to be a HoFer remains to be seen. There is also enough potential with the supporting cast of Peterson (1.01), Hall (1.03), Giblett (1.09) and Ramirez (1.13) to raise the stock of the class. But it’s all still potential. If I were forced to make a prediction, I would wager that when it’s all said and done, the 2069 class will rise above the 2011 and 2038 classes, but not rank any better than that.5) Alex Garza * 2000 - 2011Garza was the first player selected in the inaugural draft. The quality players drafted in the inaugural draft are somewhat overshadowed by the created players at the inception of the league, but one could field nearly an entire team of Hall of Famers from the inaugural draft:C – Malachi Sain1B – Aragorn King or Jimmie Davis2B – Zachary Matthews3B – No Hall of FamersSS – Rey MoncayoLF – Anthony BeckfordCF – Alex GarzaRF – Sully SullivanSP – Edgardo Castillo, Steven Williams, Aaron Bacon, Samson Steele, Robert Garza, Leo Cleland, Thomas ShowersRP – Diego Castillo6) Harold Petrillo * 2003 - 2019Petrillo was the #2 overall pick in the 2002 draft by the Maryland Admirals. The Admirals at the time were managed by Solo Acosta. Acosta managed the Admirals from 2000 through 2004 and then served a stint as the Utah Scorpions manager from 2017 to 2025. During these periods, Acosta drafted HoFers James Yim (1.03 in 2001), Harold Petrillo (1.02 in 2002), Jack Hesse (1.03 in 2024) and Leonardo de la Rosa (2.01 in 2024). For comparison, I looked at the number of HoF that I’ve drafted for the Massachusetts Patriots and there is only one: Arturo Esquiuel. I think it’s safe to say that Solo is a better drafter than I am, but I figure there is a way to quantify this. Using the “value of a draft position” study results, I figured that I can assign a numerical value to each draft pick. For instance, using the table shown in Felton Olney (CF #3), we can see that the expected rank points for the 1.02 draft position is 28.69. Harold Petrillo, who was drafted in the 1.02 slot ranks as the #6 CF – which is 70 rank points. Therefore, as a “draft score”, Solo would earn 41.31 points. On the other hand, in 2003, Solo had the 1.04 draft slot and drafted Ronaldo Blanca. The 1.04 slot has an expected rank point value of 20.69. However, since Blanca never panned out, his actual rank points is 0, which means that Solo earns negative 20.69 on his draft score. So the total swing-and-miss on Blanca ate up about half of the points that Petrillo earned. But that’s just two draft picks. In all, Solo had 67 draft picks (round 4 or better – I didn’t tabulate any of the round 5+ picks). Out of those 67 picks, he picked 9 players that were ranked:

Player

Draft Position

Expected Rank Pts

Actual Rank Pts

Draft Score

Leonardo de la Rosa

2.01 (2024)

4.33

61

56.67

James Yim

1.03 (2001)

24.11

75

50.89

Jack Hesse

1.03 (2024)

24.11

71

46.89

Harold Petrillo

1.02 (2002)

28.69

70

41.31

Fred Haigney

1.09 (2022)

11.65

52

40.35

Andrew Wilson

1.16 (2040)

6.88

43

36.12

Kelly Martin

2.08 (2025)

3.29

34

30.71

Herc Columbie

2.08 (2024)

3.29

20

16.71

Matt Rumble

1.17 (2025)

6.47

10

3.53

Adding up the Draft Score column gives a total of +323.17. On the negative side, we have the 58 draft picks Solo made which never amounted to anything great. There were 10 first round picks whose sum of expected rank points were 108.95, 17 second round picks totaling 49.79, 14 third round picks (22.62) and 16 fourth round picks (17.19). In total the 58 “misses” have a negative Draft Score of 198.56. Therefore, the quantifiable Draft Score for Solo Acosta is 323.17 – 198.56 = 124.61. Here are the Draft Scores of all the current owners as well as the past owners with 50 or more draft picks:

Owner

Draft Picks

Expected Rank Pts

Actual Rank Pts

Draft Score

John Yuda

247

871.42

1398

526.58

John Heinz

227

937.2

1359

421.8

Michael Koo

284

879.12

1200

320.88

Matt Streeter

193

728.14

1023

294.86

Freddy Reyes

91

388.88

679

290.12

Matt Yordy

150

675.52

962

286.48

Brad Huber

210

706.75

956

249.25

Fred Kroner

297

902.43

1120

217.57

John Bates

67

337.49

545

207.51

Shane Rigsby

87

251.04

448

196.96

David Thurston

183

771.49

936

164.51

Solo Acosta

67

311.39

436

124.61

Jason Dettbarn

283

1053.57

1160

106.43

Scott Murphy

90

387.23

453

65.77

Chris Ferrante

70

318.85

364

45.15

Andy Romig

167

735.47

766

30.53

Scott Collins

55

190.26

212

21.74

Jason Kroner

89

383.68

400

16.32

Sam Apfel

4

0

0

0

Mark Fagenson

28

10.07

0

-10.07

Gregg McGreggor

96

371.38

353

-18.38

John Momberg

35

27.58

0

-27.58

Lawrence Tabachnick

72

190.36

157

-33.36

Jonathan Warren

64

186.4

141

-45.4

Cameron Jolley

123

502.96

447

-55.96

Jesse Berry

66

247.6

181

-66.6

Paul Nicholls

70

279.24

206

-73.24

Rob Chapman

263

1207.03

1131

-76.03

Peter White

119

439.26

362

-77.26

Marcus Shuter

142

526.43

447

-79.43

Austin Scher

76

244.97

147

-97.97

Stefin Clapham

235

911.94

788

-123.94

Marc Walsby

97

456.84

332

-124.84

Glen Michaud

98

369.92

245

-124.92

Brian Cook

188

596.83

459

-137.83

Tate Brown

113

485.76

342

-143.76

Eric Holthaus

94

353.04

193

-160.04

Harry Wyma

244

910.1

743

-167.1

Brian Nangle

285

1000.35

831

-169.35

Ben Jemmerson

104

382.17

169

-213.17

Tim Veenstra

281

1042.73

779

-263.73

For the drafts from 2070 forward, I zero’ed out the Expected Rank Points. An owner can still earn Actual Rank Points if the player is ranked (like Adrián Amézaga for example), but is not held accountable for those draft slots not panning out. Yet.Interesting (to me at least)… When I did not know who was managing a certain club, I left the owner field blank. When I knew that no one was managing a club, I entered “CPU”. The {blank}s have the worst draft score – quite a bit worse than even me. However, the CPU is nearly exactly even:

#2 – Virginia Grays / DC Senators (3331) – The Grays follow the same pattern that led them to being the top organization for left fielders (see LF #8). They stacked up a lot of years from players who ranked just outside the top 10:Tomas Chavez (#10)Akihiro Matsubara (#12)Tim White (#19)Tony Valentin (#35)Tom Galaxy (#36)Charles Hsu (#75)

#1 – Nevada Jacks/Dragons (3523)Alex Garza (#5) Couple seasons from Bill Newbold (#11)Blair Payton (#16)Yong-chul Song (#32)Jay Trotter (#41)Armando Pagan (#46)Soze Liao (#50)8 ) Rob Dorsey 2061 - 2074Perhaps more than any other top 10 player from any position, Rob Dorsey caused me to wonder: “Who is this guy?” At first glance, Dorsey’s statistics don’t appear all that impressive either. However, Dorsey represents the most efficient way to do well in my rankings. My rankings are weighted (40%) towards a player’s best 5 seasons and they reward players for having exceptional seasons back-to-back. The first half of Dorsey’s career contain (arguably) his best 5 seasons continuously from 2062 to 2066. The second thing that my rankings are weighted heavily (40%) is towards being the best at your respective position. In Dorsey’s best years, he didn’t have a ton of competition in CF. Only Lewis Payne (#4) was consistently in competition with Dorsey. So Dorsey ends up looking pretty well in his YOPDI score as well.Finally, the remaining composition of my ratings is the short term (top season & top 3 seasons) and longer term (top 10 years and career). Dorsey does just well enough in these areas to earn the #8 ranking.9) Greg Holt * 2021 - 2038There are 5 top ten players that achieved their top ten ranking while never being considered the best at their position in any given year.Jake Young (2B #10)Donnie Bremer (3B #8)Mark Delia (SS #8)Taylor Dye (3B #10)Greg Holt (CF #9)The top CF in Greg Holt’s prime years:2025Andy PingFelton OlneyBill NewboldGreg Holt2026Andy PingGreg HoltBlair GlaspieFelton Olney2027Andy PingGreg HoltBlair GlaspieLee DeSilva2028Andy PingGreg HoltBlair GlaspieLee DeSilva2029Andy PingBlair GlaspieGreg HoltLee DeSilva2030Andy PingGreg HoltBlair GalspieAnthony Gibson2031Andy PingMalachi MarshallGreg HoltRobert Kent10) Tomás Chávez 2033 - 2051I’d like to see Chavez get another shot on a HoF ballot. He was on the ballot in 2069 when we were trying to do some catchup and was clearly overshadowed by some of the greatest names in NPBL history. Chavez is probably accustomed to be being overshadowed though. A typical leadoff hitter type of player, Chavez doesn’t have the power numbers to wow you, but when you consider he would draw nearly 100 walks and hit .300 in his sleep, he does deserve a closer look for the Hall.

If I may toot my own horn, I think the study on the draft is some fascinating stuff. It ended up being a little disjointed as it sort of evolved in my own work. But if you are going to read any part of these 75 for 75, I'd encourage the following parts: LF #4, CF #3 and CF #6.

I’ve only been a part of the league for a few seasons, and most of these names mean nothing to me, and yet...I find this series of articles inexplicably fascinating. I read every word of them, and I stand in awe of the work that was put in to make this happen. Thank you!

The draft stuff hit home for me. I had only very recently joined the league when I logged on one day and discovered that the teams ahead of me had all made their picks quickly and that I was on the clock. In my haste to not hold things up, I grabbed the first half-decent guy I could find- Matt Smith. I’ve always regretted not taking more time.

Given that, and given that my first draft pick the following year quit to devote his time to basketball or basket weaving or something, being ranked sort of in the middle of the pack as a drafter is OK...

I’ve only been a part of the league for a few seasons, and most of these names mean nothing to me, and yet...I find this series of articles inexplicably fascinating. I read every word of them, and I stand in awe of the work that was put in to make this happen. Thank you!

The draft stuff hit home for me. I had only very recently joined the league when I logged on one day and discovered that the teams ahead of me had all made their picks quickly and that I was on the clock. In my haste to not hold things up, I grabbed the first half-decent guy I could find- Matt Smith. I’ve always regretted not taking more time.

Given that, and given that my first draft pick the following year quit to devote his time to basketball or basket weaving or something, being ranked sort of in the middle of the pack as a drafter is OK...

For your part, because you are new, you are strongly benefited from the fact that I've place no expectations on anybody from the 2070 drafts onward. So even though you've not drafted a player who makes a 75 for 75 list (yet), the only negative points you get are from the 2069 draft:Matt Smith 1.04 (-20.69)Alfred Marshall 2.04 (-3.82)Ken Wright 3.04 (-1.87)Danny Carlson 4.04 (-1.19)

I’ve only been a part of the league for a few seasons, and most of these names mean nothing to me, and yet...I find this series of articles inexplicably fascinating. I read every word of them, and I stand in awe of the work that was put in to make this happen. Thank you!

Thank you for saying that. I'm glad you enjoy these. The fact that it is interesting to you even though you don't know the names is very encouraging. It makes me reconsider this

I wonder if it’s worth cross-posting them to the OOTP forums as a kind of recruitment tool? I think a lot of owners found this league via Chappy’s “Rebuilding a Champion” thread and maybe that kind of exposure could be helpful?

Adding up the Draft Score column gives a total of +323.17. On the negative side, we have the 58 draft picks Solo made which never amounted to anything great. There were 10 first round picks whose sum of expected rank points were 108.95, 17 second round picks totaling 49.79, 14 third round picks (22.62) and 16 fourth round picks (17.19). In total the 58 “misses” have a negative Draft Score of 198.56. Therefore, the quantifiable Draft Score for Solo Acosta is 323.17 – 198.56 = 124.61. Here are the Draft Scores of all the current owners as well as the past owners with 50 or more draft picks:

Owner

Draft Picks

Expected Rank Pts

Actual Rank Pts

Draft Score

John Yuda

247

871.42

1398

526.58

John Heinz

227

937.2

1359

421.8

Michael Koo

284

879.12

1200

320.88

.

.

.

Brian Nangle

285

1000.35

831

-169.35

Ben Jemmerson

104

382.17

169

-213.17

Tim Veenstra

281

1042.73

779

-263.73

Tim, your next project is to find out why the hell am I (we) am so bad at drafting. Anyone want to give me some tips?

Adding up the Draft Score column gives a total of +323.17. On the negative side, we have the 58 draft picks Solo made which never amounted to anything great. There were 10 first round picks whose sum of expected rank points were 108.95, 17 second round picks totaling 49.79, 14 third round picks (22.62) and 16 fourth round picks (17.19). In total the 58 “misses” have a negative Draft Score of 198.56. Therefore, the quantifiable Draft Score for Solo Acosta is 323.17 – 198.56 = 124.61. Here are the Draft Scores of all the current owners as well as the past owners with 50 or more draft picks:

Owner

Draft Picks

Expected Rank Pts

Actual Rank Pts

Draft Score

John Yuda

247

871.42

1398

526.58

John Heinz

227

937.2

1359

421.8

Michael Koo

284

879.12

1200

320.88

.

.

.

Brian Nangle

285

1000.35

831

-169.35

Ben Jemmerson

104

382.17

169

-213.17

Tim Veenstra

281

1042.73

779

-263.73

Tim, your next project is to find out why the hell am I (we) am so bad at drafting. Anyone want to give me some tips?

I think my lesson learned is that I might as well go ahead and trade my draft picks. They don't do me any good any way.