TONY BLINKEN, deputy national security adviser, played key role in turning Syria debate: 'Superpowers don't bluff' -- JORDAN KING Abdullah warned U.S. that a splintered Syria could mean 'Sunnistan'

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NEW LINGO: “DATAVEILLANCE” -- WSJ A1, above fold, “Phones Leave A Telltale Trail,” by Evan Perez and Siobhan Gorman, with Devlin Barrett and Jennifer Valentino-DeVries: “By tracing metadata, investigators can pinpoint a suspect's location to specific floors of buildings. They can electronically map a person's contacts, and their contacts' contacts. … Jeremy Bash, until recently Pentagon chief of staff … [, said it is] ‘a fair question’ whether metadata should trigger heightened Fourth Amendment scrutiny, because communications technology has changed so much. ‘It's possible that 'dataveillance' could come under higher judicial scrutiny,’ he said, using a new term of art that means the ability to surveil people through their data trail.” Free linkhttp://on.wsj.com/199Ltp6

HAPPY-HOUR HELPER – “Facebook Will Launch A News Reader At [Thursday] Press Event,” by TechCrunch’s Josh Constine: “The upcoming death of Google Reader and the addition of hashtags [for Facebook advertisers beginning this week] signal Facebook will likely launch a new way to discover and read news at the June 20th press event it’s just sent out mysterious invites to. It could be a sort of ‘trending articles on Facebook’ feature, or a more full-blown RSS reader-style product. Either could take advantage of Facebook’s massive treasure trove of aggregate data on what people share to surface popular and personally recommended news articles. The event invite, first spotted by Joanna Stern of ABC News, says ‘A small team has been working on a big idea. Join us for coffee and learn about a new product.’ The conspicuously analog invite was sent out via paper snail mail instead of by email like Facebook usually does. There’s also a coffee stain on the invite. You know where else you find coffee stains? On the newspaper, while you’re reading it, over coffee.

“Nobody knows what Facebook knows. Since most users share semi-privately, it can’t be scraped for trending topics. But Facebook’s algorithms see all. Similar to how it offers ad targeting data in anonymous aggregate, Facebook could surface what articles are being shared most frequently across its user base without violating privacy. … The product is likely to take advantage of hashtags that Facebook users can now add to posts to help its algorithms understand what topics different news articles are about. When I asked Facebook about what more it could do with its data on what people share, it [referred] me to the hashtag announcement from earlier this week. That blog post notes[:] ‘Hashtags are just the first step to help people more easily discover what others are saying about a specific topic and participate in public conversations.’ … A Facebook news reader with RSS would come at a perfect time, just two weeks before Google shuts down Google Reader for good.” http://tcrn.ch/19C9M1N ... Facebook’s hashtag announcementhttp://bit.ly/13NG5UW

OVER THE RED LINE -- WashPost 2-col. lead, “Hidden bases to convey arms: CIA IS BUILDING TIES TO SYRIAN REBELS: Path of aid to pass through Turkey and Jordan,” by Greg Miller and Joby Warrick, with Craig Whitlock and Julie Tate: “The CIA is preparing to deliver arms to rebel groups in Syria through clandestine bases in Turkey and Jordan that were expanded over the past year in an effort to establish reliable supply routes into the country for nonlethal material, U.S. officials said. The bases are expected to begin conveying limited shipments of weapons and ammunition within weeks, officials said, serving as critical nodes for an escalation of U.S. involvement in a civil war that has lately seen a shift in momentum toward the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. Syria experts cautioned that the opposition to Assad remains a chaotic mix of secular and Islamist elements, highlighting the risk that some American-provided munitions may be diverted from their intended recipients. …

“Within the past year, the CIA … created a new office at its headquarters in Langley to oversee its expanding operational role in Syria. ‘We have relationships today in Syria that we didn’t have six months ago,’ Benjamin J. Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser, said during a White House briefing Friday. The United States is capable of delivering material ‘not only into the country,’ Rhodes said, but ‘into the right hands.’ … Obama’s decision to approve CIA weapons shipments, spelled out in an updated covert-action finding recently signed by the president, may also signal that the administration is now prepared to endorse the delivery of heavier arms by regional allies” http://wapo.st/17NQW71

INSIDE THE DECISION – WashPost A1 sidebar, “Decision made before chemical arms finding,” by Karen DeYoung, Anne Gearan and Scott Wilson: “U.S. officials said that the determination to send weapons had been made weeks ago and that the chemical weapons finding provided fresh justification to act. As Syrian government forces, with the help of Hezbollah and Iranian militias, began to turn the war in Assad’s favor after rebel gains during the winter, Obama ordered officials in late April to begin planning what weaponry to send and how to deliver it. That decision effectively ended the lengthy disagreement among those in the White House — primarily Obama’s political advisers — who argued that providing arms would be a slippery slope to greater involvement, military leaders who said it would be too risky and expensive, and State Department officials who insisted that Syria and the region would collapse in chaos if action were not taken, officials said. …

“In taking a modest first step onto Syria’s battlefield, Obama is joining a proxy war far more complicated than it was even a few months ago. It now features the United States and its European and Arab allies on one side, and Russia, Iran and its sponsored militias on the other in support of Assad. … Divisions within the Obama administration on Syria date at least from last summer, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and then-CIA Director David H. Petraeus advocated a limit plan to provide arms. The Pentagon has been consistently leery of U.S. involvement, arguing that true military options such as a no-fly zone or even the use of standoff weapons to degrade Assad’s air assets would inevitably draw the United States into direct confrontation. Others were concerned that U.S. weapons would end up in the hands of al-Qaeda-linked extremists. [Secretary of State John] Kerry, despite palpable frustration in recent months over opposition disorganization, has said arming the rebels is likely to have a ‘multiplier effect’ among other nations supporting them.” http://wapo.st/11CqTYh

--WSJ 5-col. lead, “Behind Obama's About-Face on Syria: Jolted by Hezbollah's Entry Into Civil War and Chemical Weapons, Administration Chose to Arm Rebels,” by Adam Entous, with Julian E. Barnes, Jay Solomon and Rima Abushakra: “In one sobering moment in late April, Jordan's King Abdullah II presented … Obama and aides with a bleak scenario for Syria—showing them a map of how the country could split into warring, sectarian fiefdoms, with a tract of desert dominated by al Qaeda and its allies … Growing U.S. confidence in the general who leads moderate rebel forces made the decision to provide arms possible, said White House officials. The administration came under fire Friday … from camps ranging from Syria to Russia to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who cast … doubt on the chemical-weapons claims. Rebel fighters … suggested that the help was too little, too late. ‘It's all talk,’ said an activist in Deraa province in Syria's southeast, adding that the U.S. vow to send arms came after nearly two years of rebel requests. …

“One key change involved Tony Blinken, who was a top aide last year to Vice President Joe Biden. During White House Situation Room meetings on Syria, Mr. Blinken frequently used the phrase, ‘Superpowers don't bluff,’ to underline his view that administration rhetoric can't outpace what the U.S. is willing to do. In late January, Mr. Obama promoted Mr. Blinken to deputy national security adviser, a position that gave him day-to-day control over Syria deliberations. Mr. Blinken decided to revisit the proposals that were set aside last year, including arming the rebels … Abdullah showed the White House, and later congressional officials, a map of a hypothetical future Syria, splintered along ethnic lines: an Alawite coastal strip; a Sunni-dominated area that officials said the king called ‘Sunnistan’; a Druze-controlled area near the border with Israel; a Kurdish zone in the northeast corner; and a large swath of Syrian desert abutting Anbar province in Iraq dominated by Islamists.

“King Abdullah told [U.S.] policy makers that Syria would become similar to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, … where al Qaeda has long been based. … Abdullah, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal and Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan also argued to Mr. Obama that the U.S. was allowing three of its chief historic rivals in the Middle East—Iran, Russia and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah—to dominate the battlefield in Syria and help President Assad push back recent rebel gains. Mr. Assad's survival, they said, would tip the regional balance of power in Tehran's favor. … Secretary of State John Kerry was among the most vocal supporters of arming the rebels, officials said.” Free linkhttp://on.wsj.com/19C52Jq

** A message about BP's commitment to America: Over the last five years, BP has been America's largest energy investor. Each year, we invest an average of $11 billion here and produce nearly enough oil, gas and renewables to light the entire country. In the process, we support nearly 250,000 American jobs. Find out more at http://bit.ly/BP-Fuels-America. **

BREAKING: “Moderate Rohani looks on way to outright Iran election victory,” by Reuters’ Marcus George and Yeganeh Torbati, in Dubai: “Moderate Iranian cleric Hassan Rohani took a strong lead over conservative rivals in initial vote counting on Saturday, suggesting he could win the presidential election outright without a run-off. The outcome is unlikely to radically alter relations between Iran and the world or lead to a shift in the Islamic Republic's policy on its disputed nuclear program -- security issues that are decided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“But the president does have an important voice in decision-making … and could bring a change from the confrontational style of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term. … Rohani, a moderate who is a former chief nuclear negotiator known for his conciliatory approach, has indicated he would promote foreign policy based on ‘constructive interaction with the world’ and enact a ‘civil rights charter’ at home.” http://reut.rs/ZRDZ7p

--N.Y. Times Quotation of the Day – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, on American skepticism about the balloting: “To hell with you if you do not believe in our election.”

PUNDIT PREP – AP for Sunday papers, “Obama’s Trade Wars … Obama trade dilemma: Scant support from Democrats,” by Tom Raum: “President Barack Obama is aggressively pushing an ambitious agenda to liberalize global trading. But already political trade wars are forming, and they're with fellow Democrats rather than with Republicans, his usual antagonists. Obama is promoting free-trade proposals with Europe and Asia that could affect up to two-thirds of all global trade. The ambitious deals would reduce or eliminate tariffs and other trade barriers. But there's trouble ahead for both the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership -- at the negotiating table and from Congress. The deal with Europe will be a top item this coming week in Northern Ireland at the Group of Eight summit of major industrial democracies. But French and other objections have recently surfaced which could delay the planned launch of the negotiations.

“The Asia pact was brought up pointedly by the new Chinese president, Xi Jinping, in his California meetings with Obama last weekend. Republicans historically have supported free-trade agreements far more than have Democrats, and a politically weakened Obama may not have enough second-term clout to successfully twist the arms of enough Democratic lawmakers. Some Republicans who usually vote for easing trade barriers may vote ‘no’ just because the agreements will bear Obama's signature. Both deals generally have the support of U.S. businesses. But labor unions and human rights and environmental groups - core Democratic constituencies - have so far viewed them cynically. These organizations, and Democrats in general, say that free-trade deals can cost American jobs and lead to environmental and workplace abuses that would not be tolerated in the U.S.” http://bit.ly/1223TSg

THE PRESIDENT’S WEEK AHEAD: “On Saturday, the President has no public events scheduled. On Sunday evening, the President and the First Family will depart for Belfast, Northern Ireland. … On Monday morning, the President and the First Family will arrive in Belfast, where he will deliver remarks and engage with the people of Northern Ireland and highlight the hard work, dialogue, and institutional development they have undertaken together to advance peace and prosperity. Mrs. Obama will introduce the President at this event. The President will then meet with Prime Minister David Cameron ahead of the G8 Summit. Later, the President will attend the G-8 Summit at Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, hosted by Prime Minister Cameron … On Monday evening, the President will hold a bilateral meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia.

“On Tuesday evening, following the G-8, the President and the First Family will travel to Berlin, Germany, for an official visit to reaffirm the strong ties between the United States and Germany, our vital ally and economic partner. The President and the First Family will remain overnight in Berlin. On Wednesday, the President looks forward to meeting with President Gauck and Chancellor Merkel … Later that afternoon, at the invitation of Chancellor Merkel, President Obama will speak at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin about the deep and enduring bonds between the United States and Germany, the vital importance of the transatlantic alliance, and the values that bind us together. On Wednesday evening, the President and the First Family will return to the White House.”

THE VICE PRESIDENT’S WEEKEND: “On Saturday, the Vice President and Dr. Jill Biden will be in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. Later, they will return to Washington, DC. On Sunday, the Vice President will be in Washington, DC. There are no public events scheduled.”

--Bloomberg Government’s “Capitol Gains” (SUN 12pm ET / 5pm ET): Discussion of the privatization of U.S. intelligence with Woodrow Wilson Center president and former Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA); discussion of Maryland-based Cyber Contractors and the NSA surveillance story with Bloomberg Government analysts Rob Levinson and Sanford Reback; discussion of sequestration with Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus

--SiriusXM's “Polioptics” with Josh King (SAT/SUN 12pm ET / 6 pm ET): Ben Smith, editor-in-chief of BuzzFeed, on how social media is transforming journalism. And Dawn Ostroff, president of Condé Nast Entertainment, on how Condé Nast is building the film, television and digital platforms for brands including The New Yorker, Vanity Fair, Wired, Vogue and Glamour. On SiriusXM's P.O.T.U.S. Ch. 124, also available for download on iTunes and at http://www.polioptics.com.

** A message about BP's commitment to America: BP invests more in America than any other country, and we reinvest every dollar we earn here and more. We employ more than 20,000 people in all 50 states, making us the nation's second-largest oil and gas employer. We hired over 2,700 Americans last year. These investments, the energy they produce and the jobs they support are part of our commitment to America. Find out more at http://bit.ly/BP-Fuels-America. **

Send to a friendTONY BLINKEN, deputy national security adviser, played key role in turning Syria debate: 'Superpowers don't bluff' -- JORDAN KING Abdullah warned U.S. that a splintered Syria could mean 'Sunnistan'