After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

September

9/24

Fiorentina1

38%

27%

Atalanta1

35%

FIO

ATA

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.4

2.7

Non-shot xG

1.2

2.2

9/24

Sassuolo0

51%

28%

Bologna1

21%

SAS

BOL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.8

Shot-based xG

0.4

1.0

Non-shot xG

0.4

1.1

9/24

Verona0

18%

24%

Lazio3

58%

HEL

LAZ

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.3

2.0

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.8

9/24

Crotone2

51%

31%

Benevento0

19%

CRO

BEN

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.2

2.0

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.1

9/24

Cagliari0

48%

27%

Chievo2

25%

CAG

CVO

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.3

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.2

2.2

9/24

Inter Milan1

75%

17%

Genoa0

8%

INT

GEN

Adjusted goals

0.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.9

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.8

9/24

Sampdoria2

31%

26%

AC Milan0

43%

SMP

MIL

Adjusted goals

1.6

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.0

9/23

Juventus4

77%

16%

Torino0

7%

JUV

TOR

Adjusted goals

2.9

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.4

0.2

Non-shot xG

2.7

0.4

9/23

SPAL2

11%

19%

Napoli3

70%

SPAL

NAP

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.2

2.0

Non-shot xG

0.5

2.0

9/23

Roma3

76%

16%

Udinese1

8%

ROM

UDI

Adjusted goals

3.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.1

9/20

Verona0

26%

28%

Sampdoria0

46%

HEL

SMP

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.0

0.9

Non-shot xG

0.7

2.1

9/20

Genoa1

45%

28%

Chievo1

27%

GEN

CVO

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.7

9/20

Juventus1

76%

16%

Fiorentina0

8%

JUV

FIO

Adjusted goals

0.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.4

9/20

Atalanta5

64%

25%

Crotone1

11%

ATA

CRO

Adjusted goals

5.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.7

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.9

0.9

9/20

Cagliari0

43%

26%

Sassuolo1

31%

CAG

SAS

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.3

2.5

Non-shot xG

2.2

0.8

9/20

AC Milan2

75%

18%

SPAL0

7%

MIL

SPAL

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.3

0.9

9/20

Lazio1

31%

24%

Napoli4

46%

LAZ

NAP

Adjusted goals

1.1

3.7

Shot-based xG

0.4

3.0

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.4

9/20

Udinese2

37%

27%

Torino3

35%

UDI

TOR

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

2.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.9

9/20

Benevento0

12%

19%

Roma4

69%

BEN

ROM

Adjusted goals

0.0

4.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.1

2.2

9/19

Bologna1

21%

25%

Inter Milan1

55%

BOL

INT

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

1.2

Non-shot xG

0.5

0.9

9/17

Genoa2

29%

26%

Lazio3

45%

GEN

LAZ

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.7

3.1

Non-shot xG

0.5

1.6

9/17

Chievo1

28%

28%

Atalanta1

44%

CVO

ATA

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

1.6

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.4

9/17

SPAL0

36%

28%

Cagliari2

35%

SPAL

CAG

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.3

Non-shot xG

2.0

1.6

9/17

Napoli6

87%

11%

Benevento0

3%

NAP

BEN

Adjusted goals

5.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

5.3

0.1

Non-shot xG

2.4

0.0

9/17

Torino2

49%

25%

Sampdoria2

26%

TOR

SMP

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.9

9/17

AC Milan2

63%

22%

Udinese1

14%

MIL

UDI

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.7

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.5

9/17

Sassuolo1

17%

22%

Juventus3

61%

SAS

JUV

Adjusted goals

1.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.9

1.2

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.9

9/16

Roma3

84%

12%

Verona0

4%

ROM

HEL

Adjusted goals

2.5

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.5

0.2

Non-shot xG

3.5

0.1

9/16

Fiorentina2

57%

25%

Bologna1

18%

FIO

BOL

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.4

Non-shot xG

0.7

0.6

9/16

Crotone0

18%

24%

Inter Milan2

58%

CRO

INT

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.6

Shot-based xG

0.6

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.2

9/10

Bologna0

19%

24%

Napoli3

57%

BOL

NAP

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.4

Shot-based xG

0.2

1.7

Non-shot xG

0.3

1.4

9/10

Benevento0

26%

27%

Torino1

47%

BEN

TOR

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

0.9

Non-shot xG

1.1

2.2

9/10

Lazio4

40%

26%

AC Milan1

34%

LAZ

MIL

Adjusted goals

4.2

0.8

Shot-based xG

2.5

1.3

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.1

9/10

Verona0

27%

28%

Fiorentina5

45%

HEL

FIO

Adjusted goals

0.0

4.8

Shot-based xG

1.4

2.9

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.3

9/10

Atalanta2

55%

25%

Sassuolo1

20%

ATA

SAS

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.6

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.1

9/10

Cagliari1

51%

27%

Crotone0

21%

CAG

CRO

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.0

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.8

9/10

Udinese1

44%

28%

Genoa0

28%

UDI

GEN

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.3

Non-shot xG

0.5

1.2

9/10

Inter Milan2

79%

15%

SPAL0

6%

INT

SPAL

Adjusted goals

1.7

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.8

0.5

Non-shot xG

2.1

1.3

9/9

Juventus3

85%

12%

Chievo0

3%

JUV

CVO

Adjusted goals

2.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.8

1.3

August

8/27

SPAL3

36%

30%

Udinese2

34%

SPAL

UDI

Adjusted goals

3.2

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

1.0

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.6

8/27

Chievo1

29%

26%

Lazio2

44%

CVO

LAZ

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

1.7

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.3

8/27

Crotone0

48%

31%

Verona0

21%

CRO

HEL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.2

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.6

8/27

Napoli3

59%

23%

Atalanta1

18%

NAP

ATA

Adjusted goals

2.7

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.1

8/27

Fiorentina1

50%

25%

Sampdoria2

25%

FIO

SMP

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

1.8

1.9

Non-shot xG

2.3

0.7

8/27

AC Milan2

65%

21%

Cagliari1

14%

MIL

CAG

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.0

8/27

Torino3

46%

25%

Sassuolo0

29%

TOR

SAS

Adjusted goals

2.3

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.9

8/26

Roma1

51%

23%

Inter Milan3

26%

ROM

INT

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.7

Shot-based xG

1.4

2.5

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.9

8/26

Benevento0

34%

31%

Bologna1

35%

BEN

BOL

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.5

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.6

8/26

Genoa2

14%

22%

Juventus4

64%

GEN

JUV

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.7

Shot-based xG

1.1

2.2

Non-shot xG

0.9

2.5

8/20

Crotone0

25%

27%

AC Milan3

48%

CRO

MIL

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.5

Shot-based xG

0.3

1.9

Non-shot xG

0.6

2.7

8/20

Sassuolo0

52%

25%

Genoa0

23%

SAS

GEN

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

1.0

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.5

8/20

Bologna1

37%

27%

Torino1

36%

BOL

TOR

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.6

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.1

0.7

8/20

Sampdoria2

60%

25%

Benevento1

15%

SMP

BEN

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.6

1.2

Non-shot xG

1.6

1.2

8/20

Lazio0

68%

21%

SPAL0

12%

LAZ

SPAL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.9

0.8

8/20

Udinese1

49%

27%

Chievo2

24%

UDI

CVO

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.2

8/20

Inter Milan3

59%

22%

Fiorentina0

20%

INT

FIO

Adjusted goals

2.9

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.0

0.7

Non-shot xG

2.1

1.6

8/20

Atalanta0

32%

25%

Roma1

43%

ATA

ROM

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

0.3

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.9

8/19

Verona1

13%

21%

Napoli3

66%

HEL

NAP

Adjusted goals

0.8

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.5

2.6

Non-shot xG

0.8

2.7

8/19

Juventus3

84%

12%

Cagliari0

4%

JUV

CAG

Adjusted goals

3.2

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.1

1.2

Non-shot xG

2.4

0.6

See all&blacktriangledown;

Team rating

avg. simulated season

avg. simulated season

end-of-season probabilities

team

spi

off.

def.

W

D

L

goal diff.

proj. pts.pts.

relegatedrel.

qualify for UCLqualify for UCL

win Serie Awin league

Juventus18 pts

87.0

2.6

0.5

27.0

6.5

4.5

+57

87

<1%

93%

44%

Napoli18 pts

84.7

2.8

0.7

26.2

6.2

5.6

+56

85

<1%

89%

33%

Roma12 pts

80.9

2.6

0.8

22.8

7.1

8.1

+38

76

<1%

64%

10%

Inter Milan16 pts

78.6

2.4

0.8

22.2

8.3

7.6

+34

75

<1%

62%

8%

Lazio13 pts

73.2

2.2

0.9

19.1

8.4

10.5

+19

66

<1%

28%

2%

AC Milan12 pts

73.3

2.1

0.8

18.7

7.9

11.4

+14

64

<1%

24%

1%

Atalanta8 pts

73.1

2.0

0.8

17.3

10.0

10.7

+17

62

<1%

18%

<1%

Sampdoria11 pts

62.9

1.7

1.0

14.5

10.5

13.0

-1

54

2%

6%

<1%

Torino11 pts

63.2

1.9

1.1

14.6

9.8

13.6

-2

54

2%

6%

<1%

Fiorentina7 pts

65.6

1.9

1.0

14.6

9.0

14.5

+3

53

2%

5%

<1%

Chievo8 pts

57.6

1.6

1.0

12.1

10.4

15.5

-10

47

6%

2%

<1%

Bologna8 pts

56.7

1.4

0.9

11.4

11.0

15.6

-12

45

8%

<1%

<1%

Sassuolo4 pts

60.5

1.7

1.1

11.8

9.1

17.1

-13

45

9%

<1%

<1%

Cagliari6 pts

57.8

1.7

1.1

11.8

8.1

18.2

-16

43

10%

<1%

<1%

Udinese3 pts

57.7

1.6

1.1

10.8

8.2

19.0

-16

41

17%

<1%

<1%

Genoa2 pts

55.6

1.5

1.1

9.5

10.4

18.1

-17

39

21%

<1%

<1%

SPAL4 pts

49.5

1.3

1.1

8.7

9.4

19.9

-26

35

32%

<1%

<1%

Crotone4 pts

49.1

1.2

1.1

7.9

9.5

20.7

-32

33

41%

<1%

<1%

Verona2 pts

40.8

1.1

1.2

5.3

9.9

22.7

-45

26

71%

<1%

<1%

Benevento0 pts

40.8

1.1

1.3

5.3

7.6

25.1

-49

24

79%

<1%

<1%

Forecast from

season

The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase.The third-place team from each group qualifies for the Europa League knockout phase.The third-place finisher from each group in the Champions League — eight teams total — will join the Europa League in the round of 32.The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the next two bottom teams will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.