BEAT = Baseball Editorials, Analysis, and Talk.
A baseball blog for fanatics, sabermetricians, and students of the game's history. Specializing in statistical analysis, player evaluations, comparisons, and rankings. Published on weekends to fill the void created by most daily blogs, which generally run Monday - Friday.

News Item:Alex Rodriguez hits home run #40 for the sixth year in a row, the second longest 40-HR streak ever. With another 40-HR campaign in 2004, Rodriguez will tie Babe Ruth at seven for the most consecutive seasons of 40 or more homers.

Working on a .394 OBP this year, A-Rod has passed Lou Boudreau on a real-time basis. Unless Derek Jeter falters, it may prove difficult for Rodriguez to move up on this list. Still, there is nothing pedestrian about ranking among the top ten all-time in a category that perhaps is Alex The Great's weakest.

A-Rod moves up to sixth when measured by the difference in his OBP vs. the league average. Arky Vaughan, perhaps the most underrated infielder of all time (at least up until the days of Bill James), sits atop the list for the second consecutive category.

Parenthetically, I'm not really comfortable with Julio Franco as a shortstop given that he played fewer than half of his games at that position. However, he played more games there than anywhere else on the diamond, so shortstop it is. Franco was a good-hitting SS although he enjoyed his best years as a 2B. Julio ran well and had decent range as a middle infielder, but he also made a lot of errors. As a result, he has been a DH/1B almost exclusively from 1992-on.

The five shortstops above Rodriguez rank ahead of him in all three OBP measurements. Among players eligible for the Hall of Fame, only Johnny Pesky is on the outside looking in. Pesky lost three full years to World War II, which probably cost him 600 hits and the opportunity to exceed 2,000 for his career. According to Bill James in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, Pesky's 1942 season was the best ever by a rookie shortstop. He finished third in the MVP voting that year, went off to war, and then returned in 1946 and was fourth in the MVP voting.

Norman Elberfeld, who ranks in the top ten in OBP relative to the league based on difference and ratio, played from 1898-1914. Elberfeld, nicknamed "The Tabasco Kid" for his fiery play, was 5'7", 158 pounds and led the league in HBP twice.

Everyone knows that power is A-Rod's strong suit, and he ranks number one in career slugging percentage among shortstops. Rodriguez is slugging at a .600 clip this year and is adding to his huge lead over Ernie Banks, who captured back-to-back MVPs in 1958 and 1959 even though the Cubs had losing records and ended up in fifth place both years. Ironically, A-Rod seems to have been penalized by voters the past couple of years for playing on a team with a losing record. If the trend continues, Rodriguez could end up being one of the best players in the history of baseball never to win an MVP Award.

If I relaxed the number of plate appearances from 4,000 to 3,000, Nomar Garciaparra would place second in slugging percentage. Garciaparra had a SLG of .562 entering the 2003 season and is roughly maintaining that level this year. Upon retirement, A-Rod and Nomar stand an excellent chance of being 1-2 in SLG.

Once again, A-Rod ranks number one in the slugging department, heading a list of mostly Hall of Famers and HOFers to be. Only Vern Stephens and Rico Petrocelli, two of the many great Boston Red Sox shortstops over the years, never made it to Cooperstown. Stephens placed in the top ten in the A.L. MVP voting six times during the 1940s in an era that featured Luke Appling, Lou Boudreau, Johnny Pesky, and Phil Rizzuto as rival shortstops.

A-Rod slips to second based on the ratio of slugging percentage to the league average. Honus Wagner slugged a remarkable .468 during the Dead Ball era when the league average was only .346 and the positional average was .321.

A-Rod shows his absolute prowess in OPS similar to SLG. Nomar, at .937, would rank second if he met the minimum number of plate appearances. Rodriguez is increasing his lead this year with a .993 SLG, while Nomar is holding his own at .923.

Joe Sewell was a 21-year-old rookie when he replaced Ray Chapman as the Cleveland Indians shortstop in 1920 after the latter was killed by a pitched ball. Sewell committed 15 errors in only 22 games that first season, then made six more in the World Series. Sewell, who was the most difficult man to strike out in baseball history by far (fanning once every 63 AB), had more than seven time as many walks as strike outs in his career.

Wagner makes it three-for-three on all three major rate stats (OBP, SLG, OPS) when it comes to the ratio vs. the league average. By comparison, Rodriguez ranks sixth, second, and second, respectively. Attention future Hall of Fame voters: There are only four SS who rank in the top ten in all three of these measurements--Wagner, Rodriguez, Vaughan, and...Barry Larkin.

Once again, A-Rod jumps to the top of the pack when it comes to absolute levels (in this case Total Average). Rodriguez is extending his lead this year with a TA of 1.063 through the end of August. Wagner and Vaughan, the only other shortstops to rank number one in any of the rate stat categories, follow at two and three.

Given that John Valentin made his mark just prior to today's big, powerful shortstops, it is easy to forget how good his career year was in 1995 when he finished 9th in the MVP voting as a result of hitting .298/.399/.533 with 27 HR, 20 SB, and more than 100 runs and 100 RBI in only 135 games.

A-Rod slides to number two based on the difference between TA and the league average. Wagner, Rodriguez, and Vaughan are 1-2-3 and well ahead of the rest of the pack.

George Davis, whose career spanned the late 1800s and the early 1900s, had his best year before the modern era. In 1897, Davis hit .353 with 31 doubles, 10 triples, and 10 home runs, along with 65 stolen bases, 112 runs scored, and a league-leading 136 RBI. Davis wasn't elected to the HOF until 1998 when the Veterans Committee finally saw fit to enshrine the switch-hitting great from a bygone era.

Surprise, surprise. Rodriguez finds himself in first place in another absolute rate stat (Bases per Plate Appearance). The Texas Rangers SS is widening the gap between himself and Wagner with a league-leading BPA of .673 this year. Joe Cronin edges out Vaughan for third place.

With 2845 TB (and counting), Rodriguez should pass Cronin for fifth place by the end of 2005 when he will be just 30 years old.

Cal Ripken goes to the head of the class when it comes to career total bases. Ripken failed to make the top ten on any of the above absolute rate stats although he placed 8th and 9th in the two SLG categories relative to the league. His cumulative stats and peak production rank among the best, but he was no better than an average hitter the last ten years of his career (except for 1999 when he hit .340/.368/.584). Cal's longevity helped his counting stats immensely, but it hurt him in the area of rate stats.

A-Rod should pass Banks for second place by the end of 2004 or early 2005. If, and when, he catches Wagner will depend upon his health and his future production. Garciaparra should catapult into fourth place by the end of this season.

With 1097 RC (and counting), A-Rod should enter the top ten sometime during the second half of 2004. He is on pace to pass Ripken by the time he reaches his early 30s and stands a good chance of catching Wagner before his playing days are through.

The top three names should be familiar to all of us by now. A-Rod may pass Vaughan by the end of next year, but he has a long ways to go to reach Wagner (who ranks 14th all time in the modern era and 11th if one also includes his pre-1900 stats).

Wagner, Vaughan, and Rodriguez sit atop the all-important stat of runs created above average. Garciaparra has leapfrogged Appling and Cronin into sixth place this year and may become worthy of junior partner status in the law firm of Wagner, Vaughan, and Rodriguez by scaling the heights into fourth by the end of 2004.

Rodriguez falls to fifth place and Larkin rises to third in runs created above position because this stat compares a player vs. the specific league rather than the overall majors. As a whole, A-Rod's competition has been more difficult within his league (given the presence of Garciaparra, Jeter, and Miguel Tejada) than Larkin (Jay Bell, Jeff Blauser, and Ozzie Smith). Nonetheless, Alex The Great should surpass Larkin by the end of this year or perhaps early next year.

I have also included the top ten for those who like the Baseball Prospectus stat of Equivalent Average (EqA). EqA is a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average with a level of .260 the norm.

Given the importance of defense at the shortstop position, I would be remiss if I didn't discuss this aspect of the equation. No matter whether one uses the raw fielding stats (such as assists, putouts, double plays, and range factor), fielding runs as determined by Total Baseball, or the more sophisticated stats used by Baseball Prospectus or those incorporated into Win Shares and Zone Ratings, it doesn't change the fact that a great-hitting, average-fielding shortstop is still better than an average-hitting, great-fielding shortstop. In other words, I would take Ernie Banks at his peak over Ozzie Smith at his peak.

As best as I can determine, the following lists rank the premier fielding shortstops by the more advanced metrics.

This defensive stat is similar to the one above except with a higher hurdle rate (vs. an average player rather than a replacement level player). A-Rod came into the current season with 19, meaning that he was slightly above average defensively at shortstop for his career.

The Baseball Prospectus "Rate" stat is another way to look at the fielder's rate of production. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc. A-Rod's rate stat is 102 or two runs above average per 100 games.

Lastly, shortstops who received letter grades of "A+" by Bill James according to Defensive Win Shares (in alphabetical order):

A-Rod was rated "C+" by James through the 2000 season in his Win Shares book. A-Rod's defense has improved since then and would probably rate a "B-" today.

There are very few players who appear in the top ten in various offensive and defensive rankings. Given that Honus Wagner ranks number one the most times offensively and is generally regarded as among the top ten defensive shortstops of all time, I believe it follows that John Peter Wagner is the best shortstop ever.

Top Ten

Here is Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT's top ten shortstops of all time (minimum of 10 or more seasons):

Just Missed: Pee Wee Reese, Joe Sewell, and Alan Trammell.
Most Underrated: Vern Stephens.
Sadly Forgotten: George Davis and Bill Dahlen.
Coming on Strong: Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter. With a couple of more outstanding seasons, Garciaparra could climb all the way to fourth place and Jeter would be worthy of a top ten spot, at least based on his offensive contributions.

I feel strongly about the order of my top three, and I believe the other seven are worthy of being named in the top ten. However, I recognize the order of the last seven could be more easily argued than the top three.

Does Alex Rodriguez have a chance of becoming number one? Yes, if A-Rod can maintain today's level of productivity for another 7-8 years, he may wind up supplanting the immortal Honus Wagner as the best offensive shortstop of all time. Whether Rodriguez can overtake Wagner as the most complete SS is debatable. In any event, Alex The Great will most likely end up no worse than the second best SS ever and, quite possibly, the number one home run hitter among all players in terms of cumulative totals.

The following article is meant to be a tribute to Bobby Lee Bonds in a Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT sort of way.

My attachment with Bonds goes back 35 years. In fact, I watched him hit a grand slam in his first game in the major leagues in 1968--the only player in the modern era to accomplish that feat. The Giants were playing the Dodgers and the game was on TV in the Los Angeles market, as was the custom in those days for all the games the Dodgers played at Candlestick Park.

I also saw Bonds perform in person many times after the Yankees traded him to the California Angels in 1976. Bonds was the Angels best offensive player in 1977 when he hit 37 homers and stole 41 bases along with 103 runs scored and a career-high 115 runs batted in. Expectations were high for the Angels that year as Gene Autry reached into his saddlebags and signed Bobby Grich and Joe Rudi in the dawn of free agency. However, Grich and Rudi got hurt and only played in 116 combined games. The starting rotation was comprised of Frank Tanana, Nolan Ryan, and two days of cryin'. As a result, the Angels ended the season with a disappointing won-loss record of 74-88, fifth in the division. Bonds was traded in the off-season to the Chicago White Sox and was later dealt to the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, St. Louis Cardinals, and Chicago Cubs.

I played APBA, the baseball board game with dice and player cards, back in those days and had Bobby Bonds on my team. One look at Bonds' APBA card and seeing the 1s, 5s, 11s, and 14s (especially the 14*s) taught me as much about sabermetrics and the benefits of power, speed, and walks as reading the first edition of The Bill James Baseball Abstract in 1977. While my friends extolled the virtues of high-average hitters such as Matty Alou, Ralph Garr, Ken Griffey Sr., Bill Madlock, and Bake McBride, I began to get a feel for what really created runs well before the runs created stat was developed by James.

As detailed above, the strength of Bobby Bonds was his extraordinary power and speed. He hit home runs at more than twice the league rate and stole bases at over three times the league rate. Bonds also walked about 33% more than the league average. Even though Bonds' batting average was about equal to the league average, his unique combination of power, speed, and walks resulted in generating far more runs (382) and RBI (208) than his peers for the same number of outs.

Bonds created 315 more runs than the league average and 203 more than those who played the same position. His Offensive Winning Percentage (.629) and Bases Per Plate Appearance (.553) were significantly above the league and positional norms. What set apart Bonds from the crowd the most was his Isolated Power (.203) and his Secondary Average (.374), highlighting his power, speed, and ability to get on base via walks.

Bobby Bonds is perhaps best known for his 30-30 seasons. He and his son, Barry Bonds, hold the record with five each. Bobby entered the 30-30 club in his first full season in 1969. He repeated the achievement in 1973, joining Willie Mays as the only players to in baseball history to go 30-30 twice. Bonds then passed Mays in 1975 when he became the first Yankee ever to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in the same season--a feat unmatched until Alfonso Soriano turned the trick last year.

There have been only 27 players who have put together a 30-30 season in more than 100 years of baseball. These players have performed this combo 43 times. The father-son team of Bobby and Barry Bonds account for 23% of these seasons.

Bonds is also in exclusive company when it comes to career HR and SB as he is one of only four players with 300 of each. Interestingly, when Barry Bonds joined the group in 1996, Bobby was coaching first base and Andre Dawson was playing left field for the Florida Marlins. The game was played at Candlestick so it's possible that Mays may have been among the 15,711 fans to witness this historic event.

Bobby's son, Barry, became the only player to hit 500 homers and steal 500 bases earlier this summer. Bobby had more SB than Mays and Dawson but hit fewer HR. Bobby Bonds overlapped the end of Mays' career and the beginning of Dawson's career. In my mind, Bonds was a cross between Reggie Jackson and Cesar Cedeno. He ran a little bit better than Reggie but didn't have quite the same power, yet he had more power than Cedeno but not as much speed. As a lead-off hitter, Bonds was the pre-cursor to Rickey Henderson--a player who struck fear in opponents from the first pitch to the last pitch. Eric Davis and Darryl Strawberry had similar tools as Bonds, yet it could be argued that none of these three players lived up to the high expectations that were placed upon them when they became big leaguers.

Bobby Bonds ranks fourth in the power/speed number developed by James, trailing only his son, Rickey, and Willie. The following list is one of the most talented group of players I have ever seen based on one statistical ranking. Eight of the top ten are either in the Hall of Fame or will be as soon as they become eligible. The best outfielders from the 1950s-on are all among the top 20 other than Mickey Mantle, who ranks 44th in power/speed. As a side note, I thought it was interesting to find three second basemen (Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, and Roberto Alomar) on this list and no shortstops.

Although the players mentioned above seem to be better fits, Baseball-Reference.com has determined that the following ten players are the most similar to Bonds in terms of career statistics. Bobby Murcer is an interesting link, given the fact that he was on the other end of the high-profile, controversial deal between the Yankees and Giants--a trade, by the way, that failed to deliver the desired results to either team. It may be fitting that his comparables, like Bonds himself, are all on the outside of Cooperstown looking in. If baseball had a Hall of Fame for good players, then Bonds and most of these players would have made it on the first ballot.

Unfortunately, based on the Hall of Fame standards set by Bill James, Bobby Bonds comes up a tad short. He was a very good player in his day, but his peak and career numbers don't quite measure up to the players in the HOF.

The Other Alex The Great, Alex Belth of Bronx Banter, informed me that "Bang the Drum Slowly" was not Robert DeNiro's first starring role. Alex, who is an expert when it comes to films as his background includes having worked on the Ken Burns "Baseball" documentary, pointed out DeNiro was the lead in two of Brian DePalma's early movies--"Greetings" and "Hi Mom". Alex indicated these movies were "low-budget cheapies so, for all intents and purposes, you weren't wrong". Nonetheless, my email exchange with Alex made me reassess my Top Ten Baseball Movies because I had left out documentaries altogether.

Baseball (A Film By Ken Burns)

Despite some flaws, Baseball is the most important and enjoyable film I have ever seen in regards to the national pastime. I believe all baseball enthusiasts and students of the game's history should have this masterpiece in their movie library. The PBS Gold collection features over 25 hours on 10 DVDs. There are "nine innings" plus an "extra inning". The first inning begins with baseball origins through 1900 and each subsequent inning is produced on a decade-by-decade basis through 1970 with the eighth inning covering the period from 1970-1994. The extra inning is The Making of Baseball. The film is awesome in the use of archival photographs and clips along with outstanding narration by John Chancellor.

When It Was A Game

My second favorite baseball documentary of all time is "When It Was A Game". I wholeheatedly endorse purchasing the Triple Play Collection, a three-part series spanning 1925 through the 1960s. "When It Was a Game" is composed entirely of never-before-seen 8 and 16 mm footage taken by fans and the players themselves. The documentary does as good a job of transporting the viewer to a time gone by as any I've ever seen. The music, narration, and interviews with several players and celebrities add to the nostalgia and bring back to life baseball when it was a game.

The Life And Times Of Hank Greenberg

A third documentary that is worthy of a Top Ten mention is "The Life And Times Of Hank Greenberg". I don't own the DVD but saw the film in a movie theatre in the first week of its limited release in 2000. The documentary does an outstanding job of telling the true story of baseball's first Jewish star in the face of prejudice and isolation during the Great Depression and the War Years. The black and white newsreels from the 1930s and 1940s help us understand the obstacles Greenberg had to overcome in a story that previously had never been told to the mainstream public.

Lastly, speaking of Alex The Great Belth, be sure to check out his two most recent interviews with Jane Leavy (the author of "Sandy Koufax--A Lefty's Legacy") and Jim Bouton (former pitcher and author of "Ball Four" and "Foul Ball"). Alex has developed a well-earned niche in this area and his interviews are all must reads.

Check back this weekend for more on the other Alex The Great, aka A-Rod.

Sean McAdam wrote an article for ESPN.com on Wednesday, August 20, entitled Ichiro leads long list of AL MVP candidates. Although Ichiro Suzuki is not at the top of most sabermetricians' lists of MVP candidates, he apparently is the choice of many baseball writers and analysts (including ESPN's Peter Gammons, Joe Morgan, Tom Candiotti, and Tony Gwynn).

I don't have a problem with Ichiro's inclusion per se. However, I cannot for the life of me understand how Alex Rodriguez could be overlooked again. In fact, A-Rod wasn't even mentioned as one the top seven candidates by McAdam. Not only is he worthy of serious consideration this year, a strong case could be made on behalf of Alex The Great winning the MVP in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, and 2002. Amazingly, A-Rod has never won the award despite the fact that the talented and productive shortstop has clearly been the A.L.'s best player over the past seven-plus years.

Forget for a moment about whose team is in first place. Instead, ask yourself, "Which player do I want on my team?" Do you really think Seattle wouldn't still be in first place and Texas in last place if they switched teams? Or is the difference in won-loss records more a function of pitching (5.70 ERA for Texas, 3.77 ERA for Seattle) than anything else?

THE TALE OF THE TAPE

BA OBP SLG OPSIchiro .338 .379 .464 .842
A-Rod .305 .400 .602 1.002

Oh, and another thing, the guy with the higher OPS also plays the more demanding position (SS vs. RF). Granted, Ichiro is a Gold Glove outfielder (and arguably one of the best defensive right fielders of all time), but A-Rod is a Gold Glove shortstop (and an excellent defensive player in his own right).

OK, what about the fact that Ichiro plays in an extreme pitchers' ballpark and A-Rod plays in an extreme hitters' park? Good question. Let's examine that a bit closer.

ICHIRO'S HOME-ROAD SPLITS

BA OBP SLG OPSHome .341 .392 .473 .865
Road .336 .366 .457 .823

Is Ichiro really hurt by playing his home games at Safeco Field? Although the Mariners in general hit better on the road (.289/.358/.451) than at home (.266/.341/.402), Ichiro's stats are actually better at home across the board.

Perhaps a more fair comparison would be to compare Ichiro's numbers on the road vs. A-Rod's.

ROAD STATS ONLY

BA OBP SLG OPSIchiro .336 .366 .457 .823
A-Rod .287 .391 .574 .965

A-Rod's OPS advantage over Ichiro barely declines from .160 overall to .142 on the road, suggesting the difference in home ballparks is not that great of a factor.

I guess I really shouldn't be too surprised if Ichiro were to win the MVP Award over A-Rod. He won it in 2001 despite having similarly inferior stats so why not repeat the mistake in 2003?

ICHIRO VS. A-ROD, 2001

BA OBP SLG OPSIchiro .350 .381 .457 .838
A-Rod .318 .399 .622 1.021

I think I could better handle the voters' bias toward Suzuki over Rodriguez if the former were the middle infielder and the latter the outfielder. But, with Ichiro being an OF and A-Rod a SS, I find it a bitter pill to swallow. Don't get me wrong. I believe Suzuki is a fantastic player--a high average hitter who can run extremely well and field his position with the best of 'em. There is no doubt in my mind that Ichiro is underappreciated when viewed through the looking glass of sabermetrics. The irony though is that A-Rod seems to be even more underappreciated by the MVP voters.

The fact that Ichiro's salary ($4,697,000) is substantially lower than A-Rod's ($22,000,000) may make him a more affordable player but not necessarily a more valuable player. And isn't it the latter that we're voting on here?

Does the MVP have to be on a winning team? How do we define "winning"? Does a team have to win the World Series? Or the pennant? Does finishing first in one's division qualify? How 'bout just making the playoffs? Or is it enough to be on a team with a winning record? Rather than being so vague, let's add some definition here, folks. If baseball wants to change the "Most Valuable Player" award to the "Best Player on the Best Team", then I say fine, go ahead and call it that. But let's not kid ourselves anymore and allow that player to call himself the MVP. "BPBT", yes; "MVP", no.

As I wrote last week in Drilling Deeper Into The Greatest HR Hitters Ever, there is one player who has the potential of becoming the all-time home run leader on a cumulative basis before he retires--yet has not appeared on any of the lists thus far because his career plate appearances prior to the 2003 season were below the 5,000 minimum I required for inclusion. There is no need for a little drumroll here. Not surprisingly, Alex Rodriguez is his name. Hitting home runs (among other things) is his game.

Rodriguez turned 28 years old on July 27. Using the universally accepted cut-off date of July 1st to determine age for a given season, A-Rod will be classified as a 27-year-old in 2003. Alex the Great hit his 33rd home run tonight vs. the Chicago White Sox and has now hit 331 HR in his career, far surpassing all of the other players in baseball history in homers through age 27.

Earlier this season, A-Rod became the youngest player to hit 300 home runs and is likely to be the youngest to reach each of the next several century marks, provided he remains healthy. According to 756watch.com (which uses the "Favorite Toy" method created by Bill James), A-Rod is projected to hit 683 HR in his career and has a 35% chance of passing Hank Aaron. By comparison, Barry Bonds is estimated to hit 740 HR and has a 47% chance of passing Aaron's record. Despite comments by Bonds that could be interpreted to the contrary, it is highly unlikely that he will end his career 15 short of the all-time record unless, of course, he is unable to play due to injury or poor health.

A-Rod is within striking distance of hitting 40 HR in a season for a sixth time this year. Similarly, Bonds is only three away from doing it a seventh time and Sammy Sosa has an outside chance of hitting 40 for a seventh time as well. Alex the Great and Ernie Banks are the only non-OF/1B to slug 40 HR in at least five separate seasons--and both happened to do it as shortstops, arguably the most difficult defensive position on the field.

If, and when, A-Rod hits his 40th roundtripper this year, he will be in second place all by himself and only one behind Babe Ruth's record of seven for the most consecutive seasons with 40 or more home runs. Repeat after me. If, and when, A-Rod hits his 40th roundtripper this year, he will be in second place all by himself and only one behind Babe Ruth's record of seven for the most consecutive seasons with 40 or more home runs..

Not a One-Trick Pony

Setting aside home runs for a moment, A-Rod is simply one of the best players of all time through age 27. Using two comprehensive stats invented by Lee Sinins of the ATM Reports and the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia--Runs Created Above Average and Runs Created Above Position--Alex The Great ranks among the most elite players in baseball history. (RCAA is the difference between a player's runs created and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs. A negative RCAA indicates a below average player in this category. RCAP is just like RCAA, except the comparision is to players at his position.)

Whaddya know? Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Thomas are the only active players ahead of A-Rod. Readers of Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT shouldn't be surprised to see Griffey's and Thomas' names among these greats. Of note, every player listed above A-Rod who is eligible for the Hall of Fame has already been enshrined. A-Rod is the highest-ranked non-OF/1B. Eddie Collins and George Brett are the only other 2B-SS-3B.

Charlie Keller and Hal Trosky are the only eligible players on the list not in the HOF. Keller, a lefthanded-hitting slugger who played RF for the Yankees in the 1940s, was headed to Cooperstown after his first five years with OPS+ scores of 144, 141, 162, 163, and 168. However, Keller lost nearly two years to World War II at his peak, returned and played 150 games in 1946 (with an OPS+ of 159), and then never played 100 games in a season the rest of his career due to back troubles. He retired with an OPS+ of 152, tied for 29th all time. Trosky, a lefthanded-hitting 1B with the Indians, enjoyed one of the greatest rookie seasons ever in 1934 (.330/.388/.598 with 35 HR and 142 RBI). He knocked in more than 100 runs in each of his first six campaigns, including a league-leading 162 in 1936. Trosky retired at the age of 28, then returned for three seasons and hit only 23 HR the rest of his career.

A-Rod has created the sixth most runs above the average player compared to one's position through age 27 in A.L. history. He should surpass Ted Williams and Jimmie Foxx before the season is out, placing him fourth behind only Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, and Ruth. Rarefied air indeed.

At the conclusion of the season, A-Rod should rank as the fifth most productive offensive player relative to his position through age 27 in major league history, behind only Mantle, Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, and Ruth. If Rodriguez can maintain a similar pace throughout his career, he will enter baseball's pantheon as one of the truly most outstanding players ever.

I will continue with Alex The Great Part II next weekend with more detailed information on his current year and career stats as well as how he stacks up in the rankings vs. the greatest shortstops of all time.

As a follow-up to the Let's Be Frank About The Big Hurt article last month, I compiled four extra screens to highlight his standing among the hitting greats of the game. For anyone who remains skeptical about the White Sox slugger's place in baseball history, I believe they should take note of the following lists:

Could that be right? Wow! Only Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, and Barry Bonds have put together more seasons of .400+ OBP and .600+ SLG than Frank Thomas. Granted, Big Frank is unlikely to catch Ruth, Williams, Foxx, Gehrig, and even Bonds (who is well on his way to his eighth such season), but, c'mon now, those players just might be the five greatest hitters in baseball history. Ranking only behind these giants of the game and being on par with Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, and Hank Greenberg is impressive company indeed.

Let's scroll down and take a look at the next list for additional proof as to how awesome Thomas has been over the years.

Let me see now, only Ruth has had more consecutive seasons of .400+ OBP and .600+ SLG than Thomas? Holy cow! That should leave a greater impression than Dolly Parton falling face first on you.

Ruth also had a streak of six seasons (1919-1924) in addition to the one listed above but failed to qualify based on coming up just shy of the minimum requirement of 500 plate appearances in 1922. Similarly, Hornsby would have joined Thomas, Gehrig, and Foxx with five seasons in a row (1921-1925) had he not fallen a tad below the minimum number of PA in 1923.

By definition, if a player reaches .400 OBP and .600 SLG in a single season, then he will also have an OPS of 1.000 or more. However, it's also possible that a player could get to that magical mark by having an OBP of, say, .375 and a SLG of .625 or an OBP of .425 and a SLG of .575. Therefore, so as not to be biased toward .400-.600 seasons, let's delve deeper into OPS as a standalone category.

Gehrig...Ruth...Thomas. What can I say? The names and the ranking speak for themselves.

Williams, who is listed at four seasons twice, should arguably be given credit for at least eight consecutive years with an OPS of 1.000 or better. However, he fails to qualify on a technicality owing to not playing in 1943-1945 when he was serving in the military. Remarkably, The Thumper actually had an OPS of 1.000+ every year of his career except 1959. Accordingly, if it weren't for the missing seasons or falling short of the minimum requirement of 500 plate appearances, a case could be made that Williams had 17 straight campaigns with an OPS of 1.000+.

Bonds is working on a run of 11 consecutive seasons with an OPS > 1.000, but he fell short of the minimum requirement for plate appearances in 1994 and 1999 in order to qualify for the list above. Likewise, Ruth had a streak of six seasons (1919-1924) in addition to the one listed above but just missed meeting the minimum number of PA in 1922.

Look, folks, these stats are what it's all about. On base percentage and slugging average. Scoring runs is about getting on base and driving the runners around the bases. Players who rank among the best at both are quite simply among the most valuable offensive players of all time.

If there is no disputing the greatness of Ruth, Williams, Foxx, Gehrig, Bonds, Musial, Greenberg, Hornsby, Ott, Cobb, and Mickey Mantle, why would anyone argue against Thomas and his accomplishments?

We need to recognize that the best players in baseball history didn't just come from the first half of the last century. Instead, we should realize that many of the very best players ever are active today. So, if you missed the opportunity to watch any of the above do their thing in person, make sure you take advantage of the opportunity to witness and appreciate some of the greatest players in baseball history while you can.

In between weekend posts, I would like to refer readers to some of the other great baseball blogs and sports websites out there. There are numerous well-known and well-written blogs out there that should become a part of your daily reads. There are also a handful of sites that may be under the radar screen but should be worthy of your attention.

My son, Joe Lederer, and his best friend, John Kumpart, are the co-authors of Soapbox Sports, a fun and sometimes irreverent look at the world of sports. If you like editorials, opinions, point/counterpoint discussions, and top ten lists, then this website is right up your alley. Speaking of the latter, Joe and John have ranked their top ten sports movies of all time. Check these lists out and tell them what you think.

In the meantime, here are my top ten BASEBALL movies of all time:

1. Field of Dreams (1989). An adaptation of W.P. Kinsella's fantasy novel, Shoeless Joe. Starring Kevin Costner, James Earl Jones, and Burt Lancaster. "If you build it, he will come." It's not so much a baseball movie as it is a story about pursuing your dreams, no matter the cost--literally and figuratively. "The one constant through all the years has been baseball...It reminds us of all that once was good, and what could be again." Poignant scene of son (Costner) and father (Dwier Brown) playing a game of catch at the end. One of the few movies that gets better with each viewing.

2. The Pride of the Yankees (1942). The Lou Gehrig Story. Starring Gary Cooper, Teresa Wright, and Walter Brennan. Cameo roles by Babe Ruth, Joe McCarthy, Bill Dickey, Bob Muesel, and Mark Koenig. The movie was nominated for Best Picture and Wright for Best Actress. "Today, I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the Earth. I might have been given a bad break, but I've got an awful lot to live for." A must own DVD for any Gehrig fan or sentimental baseball enthusiast.

3. Bang the Drum Slowly (1973). Baseball's version of "Brian's Song". Starring Michael Moriarty and Robert DeNiro. OK, I'm a sucker for tear jerkers. Moriarty plays the star pitcher, Henry Wiggen, and DeNiro (in his first starring role) plays the simple-minded rookie catcher, Bruce Pearson, stricken with Hodgkin's Disease. "Everybody would be nice to you if they knew you were dying." A pre-cursor to the great baseball movies of the 1980s and 1990s.

4. Bull Durham (1988). Starring Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins, and Susan Sarandon. Written and directed by Ron Shelton, who spent five years in the minor leagues. An accurate look at the game, both on and off the field. Minor league journeyman catcher Crash Davis (Costner) tutors the hard-living and hard-throwing Nuke LaLoosh (Robbins), while attempting to court groupie Annie Savoy (Sarandon). "I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days." Fun and entertaining.

5. Eight Men Out (1988). Based on Eliot Asinof's book by the same name. The story of the 1919 Black Sox scandal. Great cast including John Cusack and Charlie Sheen. Writer and director John Sayles does a masterful job of recreating the period, bringing the complexity of the gambling conspiracy to the screen, and playing a cameo role as baseball writer Ring Lardner. "Say it isn't so, Joe! Say it isn't so!" A good two-hour investment, if for no other reason than to learn more about the game's storied past.

6. The Natural (1984). Based on a novel by Bernard Malamud. An all-star lineup of actors and actresses, including Robert Redford, Robert Duvall, Glenn Close, Kim Basinger, and Barbara Hershey. Redford stars as Roy Hobbs, the quintessential baseball hero. The game-winning HR off the scoreboard clock is probably one of the most memorable baseball film moments. "God, I just love baseball." Generally overrated but an enjoyable fable nonetheless.

7. A League of Their Own (1992). Based on the Women's Professional Baseball League in the 1940s. Tom Hanks, Geena Davis, Lori Petty, Madonna, Rosie O'Donnell, and Jon Lovitz. Hanks and Davis star as the drunken manager Jimmy Dugan and star catcher Dottie Henson, respectively. Movie brought attention to a nearly forgotten part of baseball history. "There's no cryin' in baseball" has become part of the game's vernacular.

8. The Sandlot (1993). Tale of a kids' pickup team in the 1960s. James Earl Jones heads a cast of unknowns. One of the least known and underrated baseball movies ever. "Heroes get remembered, but legends never die. Follow your heart, kid, and you'll never go wrong." Brings back fond memories of simpler times when my neighborhood friends and I played baseball and games like Over-The-Line, Home Run Derby, and Whiffleball. Fun for the whole family.

9. 61* (2001). Docudrama by Director Billy Crystal about the 1961 home run battle between Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle. Starring Barry Pepper as Maris and Thomas Jane as The Mick. Pepper and Jane are perfectly cast in their roles with the former looking eerily like his character. Although pitted against one another in the newspapers, Maris' and Mantle's friendship is at the heart of the film. Great technical advice from former ballplayers adds reality. Insightful from a "behind the scenes" vantage point. Straightforward without a lot of the fluff that generally finds its way into such movies.

10. Bad News Bears (1976). Baseball comedy about Little League baseball. Starring Walter Matthau and Tatum O'Neal. The story line is simple: the coach is waiting for his next beer; the pitcher is waiting for her first bra; and the team is waiting for a miracle. Matthau, O'Neal, and all the foul-mouthed misfits are superb in their roles. "Hell no, Coach. I want to play ball." Big hit with kids in its day. Avoid the sequels, which are not even of replacement level caliber.

I also have a soft spot in my heart for Safe At Home (1962). It was the first baseball movie I remember seeing. I haven't watched it since I was a kid but am reluctant to do so again because my sense is that I would be disappointed the second time around. The M&M Boys (Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris) star as themselves with cameos by Whitey Ford and Ralph Houk.

Trying to rank the greatest home run sluggers in history is no easy feat. Thus far, I have produced lists based on the standard cumulative totals as well as lists with the differences between the individual player and his league average expressed in absolute and relative terms.

My main problem with ranking players based on cumulative totals only is that such rankings tend to be biased toward longevity and those who played in eras favoring that particular stat. As such, I prefer basing my rankings on how a player performed vs. the league average. The question then comes down to whether I should use absolute or relative differences. At the risk of losing those readers who may be mathematically challenged, let me try to explain why I think the best system is a combination of the two.

Although the ratios are the same, hitting 30 HR in a season vs. 10 for league average is clearly worth more than producing 12 HR in a league with an average of 4. As a result, a formula based on the ratio of HR vs. the league average will tend to overvalue hitters who played during the dead ball era and undervalue those who played during the live ball era.

The converse is also true. Although the absolute differences are the same, hitting 12 HR in a season vs. 4 for the league average is clearly more valuable than producing 18 HR in a league with an average of 10. As a result, a system based on the absolute differences of HR vs. the league average will tend to overvalue hitters who played when HR were more prevalent and undervalue those who played when HR were less prevalent.

Accordingly, it seems to me that evaluating the greatest home run sluggers of all time should be based on the combined standings of these two methods. After satisfying myself with the logic behind my system, I proceeded to create two lists. The first one ranked the top 100 HR hitters in modern baseball history by the absolute differences in HR vs. the league average and the second ranked the top 100 by the ratio of HR vs. the league average. To qualify for the next cut, I made it a requirement that a player make both lists. From there, I added the two rankings and then sorted them to come up with Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT's Top 30.

Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT's Top 30 HR Sluggers of All Time (1900-2002):

This list is not meant to be the list. However, it is meant to be a list. I believe it does as good a job as any in measuring the combination of quantitative and qualitative totals, which, as detailed in The Quad articles, is my favorite way of evaluating and ranking players.

The rankings are dynamic rather than static, but they are not as apt to change as the standard career lists (which seemingly fluctuate on a daily basis). Barry Bonds (currently at #8), Sammy Sosa (#23), and other active players have the potential of moving up on this list although the climb will be much more difficult than rankings based on cumulative totals only. Although Bonds is a good bet to blow by Willie Mays, Ruth, and Hank Aaron in career home runs before he calls it quits, it will be almost impossible for him to supplant The Bambino as the most dominant HR hitter ever (as determined by my system).

There are three players--Frank "Home Run" Baker, Gavvy Cravath, and Harry Davis--who may have been shortchanged based on my formula. The common thread among these players is that they excelled at hitting four baggers during the "dead ball" era of the 1900s and 1910s. These hitters fare extremely well on the ratio rankings but they failed to make the top 100 on absolute differences. Baker (1911-1914) and Davis (1904-1907) each led the American League in HR for four consecutive years, while Cravath (1913-1915, 1917-1919) topped the National League in HR for three straight years twice (for a grand total of six titles).

Cy Williams once again shows up well in this ranking. Like Baker, Cravath, and Davis before him, Williams also played in the "dead ball" era. Of the top 30, only Williams (1916) and Ruth (1918 and 1919) won home run titles prior to the introduction of the live ball in 1920.

On a separate note, I thought it was noteworthy that four of the top ten HR hitters above (Ruth, Foxx, Gehrig, and Hank Greenberg) also ranked in the top ten in HR %, HR/100 Outs, and HR/100 Plate Appearances relative to the league in absolute and relative terms. These lists are shown for information only and were not used in calculating my rankings.

Next weekend, I will take a look at the one player who has yet to appear on any of my HR lists (due to falling just shy of the minimum number of plate appearances of 5,000) but has the potential of becoming the all-time leader on a cumulative basis before he retires.