Illinois Sen. Barack Obama could make it a fourth quarter surprise for Sen. Hillary Clinton among
Democratic likely presidential primary voters in New Jersey and has gained ground on Sen. Clinton
in New York, according to two separate Quinnipiac University polls released today.
Arizona Sen. John McCain has commanding leads over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
among likely Republican primary voters in both states.

"Sen. Obama has put together a coalition of blacks and independents to dramatically
narrow the gap in just the last few days in New Jersey, but the big question remains: Will there be
enough of these new, young, first time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?"
said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Obama has gained yardage in New York, but the clock is running out and Sen.
Clinton still has the home field advantage," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute.

New York

A total of 80 percent of Clinton's Democratic backers say they are "not too likely" or "not
likely at all" to change their minds, compared to 72 percent of Obama supporters.

Among Republicans, 67 percent of McCain supporters and 57 percent of Romney backers
say they are not likely to change their minds.

"Sen. McCain, once written off for dead, is poised for a big win in New York, while Gov.
Romney could be going home early," Carroll said.

New Jersey

For Clinton's Democratic voters, 78 percent say they are not likely to change their minds.
Obama loyalty is at 78 percent also.

Among Republicans, 78 percent of McCain supporters and 68 percent of Romney backers
say they are not likely to change their minds.

"New Jersey Democratic Party organizations are famous for getting out their vote in
primary elections. When added to Sen. Clinton's strength among women, this could bring home
the victory for the Senator next door. Three things will decide this race, turnout, turnout and
turnout," Richards said.

"With Rudy Giuliani out of the race, New Jersey Republicans have flocked to John McCain
as their candidate for president. There was never much talk about Mitt Romney among New Jersey
Republicans as the Garden State prepares to join in what could be a party coronation for war hero
senator from Arizona on Super Tuesday."

From January 30 - February 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
New York: 370 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and
517 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
New Jersey: 350 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent, and
463 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and
nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

New York

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were
being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama,
for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward
Clinton or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".

2. (If registered Rep) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being
held today and the candidates were Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, and
Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you
lean more toward Huckabee, McCain, Paul or Romney? This table includes "Leaners".

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were
being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama,
for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward
Clinton or Obama? "This table includes "Leaners"

2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were
being held today and the candidates were Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul,
and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you
lean more toward Huckabee, McCain, Paul or Romney? *This table includes "Leaners"