NASCAR centerpiece: Trick or treat

Monday

Oct 25, 2010 at 12:01 AMOct 25, 2010 at 7:38 AM

There could not be a more appropriate date than Halloween for a Chase race at Talladega.

Rob Sneddon

Talladega has a reputation for providing both the best and worst that NASCAR has to offer. The best: multiple lead changes and closes finishes. The worst: multiple-car crashes and decimated fields. So will the Halloween edition be a trick or a treat? Here are the possibilities.

Trick

The six previous Chase races at Talladega have produced an average of 13.5 DNFs. Each year at least one Chase contender has seen his championship aspirations expire in Alabama, including Mark Martin last season. Talladega’s 2008 Chase race was a disaster of epic proportions; seven Chasers finished 20th or worse. That essentially cleared a path to the title for Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth. But Talladega has cost J.J., too. In 2004 he finished 37th there with a blown engine — and lost the championship to Kurt Busch by a mere eight points.

Bottom line: Talladega is more likely to harm Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin than to help them.

Treat

Talladega tends to be the one track where every driver is a contender, including those not in the Chase. Combined, the nine other Chase tracks have produced just eight winners from outside the Chase ranks over the years. Talladega has produced three — or 50 percent. And if not for a controversial out-of-bounds call in 2008, the number would be four. Although Tony Stewart was the second driver to cross the finish line that year, NASCAR awarded him the win after ruling that apparent winner Regan Smith had passed Stewart below the yellow line. That denied Smith the opportunity to join the nine other drivers who have become first-time winners at Talladega. The list includes Brian Vickers, who emerged victorious from a last-lap confrontation with then-teammate Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. in one of the more famous (or infamous, depending on your perspective) moments in Chase history.

Bottom line: Talladega stands as the last, best chance for drivers outside the Chase to score a season-salvaging victory. Put Dale Earnhardt Jr. right at the top of this list. He looked strong at Martinsville, leading 90 laps, and five of his 18 Sprint Cup wins have come at Talladega.

Trick

Power-robbing restrictor plates keep the cars clustered so tightly at Talladega that many drivers are content to just hang back and log laps until late in the race. In fact, so many drivers used this strategy a year ago — after NASCAR issued a pre-race warning against excessive bump-drafting — that some observers interpreted it as a protest.

Bottom line: While a few drivers may hang back at times, the “Boys, have at it” edict that NASCAR issued in January should ensure that there’s no repeat of last year’s parade.

Treat

One thing about those clusters of cars: They produce plenty of front-runners. Talladega has averaged 54 lead changes in each of its six previous Chase events. And that’s meager compared with the 88 lead changes at the Aaron’s 499 last April, an all-time Sprint Cup record. Count on all the Chase contenders trying to get up front early to collect the five-point lap-leader bonus. (Nine of the 12 Chasers led laps last year.) Now factor in the tightest race that the Chase has ever seen this late in the season (six points separate leader Jimmie Johnson from second-place Denny Hamlin) and you have the potential for a high-tension spectacle. And oh, by the way, the driver who won that record-setting race in April? Kevin Harvick. He’s third in the standings, just 62 points back. If Johnson and Hamlin end up in a Halloween horror show, Harvick could emerge as the new leader.

Bottom line: This one has all the makings of a classic.

ONE TO WATCH: Kevin Harvick

WHY HE MATTERS: Unlikely third at Martinsville has him hanging with Chase leaders.

WHAT HE SAYS: “Coming here and getting our first top-five, beating the 48 … (that) was pretty close to a home run.”

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY: He has home-run power at Talladega, where he won in April.

NEXT RACE AMP ENERGY JUICE 500, Talladega Superspeedway

THE LOWDOWN So much for the power of positive thinking. At Talladega, the fear of “The Big One” — a massive, multi-car wreck that can unfold at any moment — has become so pervasive that drivers no longer even pretend to ignore it. Just listen to Denny Hamlin’s ’dega strategy as he tries to keep pace with Chase leader Jimmie Johnson: “I’m going to keep him right in front of me for the entire Talladega race. If I’m going to get in a wreck, I’m going to make sure he's in it as well.” Good times!

“Who said it was over?” — Denny Hamlin, after his Martinsville win sliced Jimmie Johnson’s Chase lead to six points — closest margin ever with four races left.

Where to watch

Sunday’s pre-race show on ESPN starts at noon EDT, followed by the race at 1:00.

UP TO SPEED

The Talladega lottery

It would seem statistically impossible, but not one driver has averaged a top-10 finish at Talladega in the six previous Chase races (two starts minimum). And only 13 drivers have averaged even a top-20 finish (see chart). Perhaps this stat best summarizes the random nature of restrictor-plate racing: There’s only one Gordon in the top 20 — and it’s Robby, not Jeff. (Fellow Chasers Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle are also conspicuous by their absence.)

Domino effect

The silly-season dominoes have begun to fall. Kasey Kahne, who earlier this season announced that he was leaving Richard Petty Motorsports at season’s end, was granted an early release after Charlotte. Aric Almirola took over the No. 9 RPM Ford at Martinsville, while Kahne moved to the No. 83 Toyota of Red Bull Racing, which he will run next season before moving to Hendrick in 2012. The odd man out, so far, is Reed Sorenson, who had been driving the 83 as a replacement for Brian Vickers, who was sidelined earlier this season after suffering blood clots.

Milestone

It took 17 tries, but four-time NASAR Camping World Truck series champion Ron Hornaday finally won a race at Martinsville Speedway. Hornaday has made more truck starts at Martinsville than any other track but until Saturday had never cracked the win column there. He’s now won a total of 47 races at 30 different truck tracks.

WEEKLY STATS

Average Chase-race finish at Talladega*

RANK DRIVER STARTS AVG. FINISH

1 (tie) Kurt Busch 6 12.3

1 (tie) Tony Stewart 6 12.3

3 Kevin Harvick 6 13.2

4 Clint Bowyer 4 15.8

5 Kasey Kahne 6 16.0

6 Matt Kenseth 6 16.2

7 Bobby Labonte 6 17.8

8 David Ragan 3 18.0

9 Jimmie Johnson 6 18.2

10 Carl Edwards 6 18.8

11 (tie) Robby Gordon 6 19.5

11 (tie) Ryan Newman 6 19.5

13 Juan Pablo Montoya 3 19.7

14 Joe Nemechek 6 20.0

15 Jeff Burton 6 21.2

16 Elliott Sadler 6 21.3

17 Travis Kvapil 2 21.5

18 Dave Blaney 5 21.8

19 Kyle Busch 5 22.0

20 Jamie McMurray 6 22.7

*Active, full-time drivers with at least 2 Talladega starts

Never miss a story

Choose the plan that's right for you.
Digital access or digital and print delivery.