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Senate-control issue may give Warren an edge

Survey: Many likely voters prefer Democratic majority

By Chris Camire, ccamire@sentinelandenterprise.com

Updated:
10/09/2012 12:58:05 PM EDT

In recent weeks, Elizabeth Warren has turned the focus of her campaign to the national implications of sending Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown back to Washington, warning it could result in archconservatives setting the Senate's agenda for at least the next two years.

Now, a new poll suggests maintaining Democratic control of the U.S. Senate could be a winning issue for Warren as she seeks to put the state's Senate seat back in the Democratic column.

A Western New England University Polling Institute survey released over the weekend shows 48 percent of likely voters in Massachusetts would prefer that Democrats keep control of the Senate, while only 24 percent prefer Republican control. Twenty-two percent said it makes no difference.

Tim Vercellotti, director of the Western New England University Polling Institute and a political-science professor, said Warren would be wise to continue trying to nationalize the race.

"This is an issue that Scott Brown has a hard time rebutting because there is no logical rebuttal to it," said Vercellotti. "Keeping the seat in the Republican column does raise the likelihood that the Republicans could win the Senate."

The poll, which was conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, also found that 9 percent of Brown supporters would prefer the Senate remain in Democrats' hands, while only 2 percent of Warren supporters want Republicans to take control. With four weeks to go until the Nov.

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6 election, Warren could court these Brown supporters by stressing the national implications of the race, said Vercellotti.

Democrats currently hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate. They have 23 seats up for re-election in 2012, while Republicans have only 10.

Republicans need to win a net of four seats to take back control of the Senate. If Republican Mitt Romney is elected president, with Paul Ryan casting the tie-breaking vote as vice president, Republicans would only need to win back three seats.

The seat held by Brown is one of three held by Republicans nationwide that are considered to be tossups, according to the election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight.com. The other two are Maine and Nevada.

There are four seats held by Democrats (Missouri, Montana, Virginia and Wisconsin) that are rated as tossups.

Warren pointed out that control of the U.S. Senate could hang in the balance during her first debate against Brown in Boston last month. If the GOP regains control of the Senate, Warren said Republican Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, who has called global warming a hoax, would take control of the committee that oversees the Environmental Protection Agency.

"This isn't just about Sen. Brown's vote," she said.

Brown has countered this argument by touting his bipartisan voting record. But during last week's debate at UMass Lowell, he stopped short of saying whether he would vote for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, as leader, if Republicans regain control of the Senate.

"He has a lot of work to do to earn my vote," said Brown.

Warren leads Brown 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in the Western New England University poll. Warren has held single-digit leads over Brown in several other recent polls.

The poll found that Brown is leading among independents, 62 to 35 percent, however.

Independent or unenrolled voters make up just over half of the Massachusetts electorate, making them key to winning the Senate race. Brown must win that voting block decisively to be competitive in the state, as registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans three to one.

Complicating matters for Brown is the fact that voter turnout is higher for presidential elections, said Vercellotti, meaning Democrats who typically stay at home will be casting ballots this year.

In the 2008 presidential election, Democrat Barack Obama captured 62 percent of the vote in Massachusetts to 36 percent for Republican John McCain. In the 2010 special election to replace the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Brown captured 52 percent of the vote to Democrat Martha Coakley's 47 percent.

The 2008 presidential election drew 36 percent more voters to the polls in Massachusetts than the special election two years later.

Obama currently leads Romney by 30 points in Massachusetts, according to Western New England University poll. The candidates split the independent vote, with 47 percent backing Obama and 48 percent backing Romney.

"Our independent voting block in Massachusetts is not nearly as blue as people think," said Vercellotti.

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