Recession

"With respect to investors, the argument can be made that oil prices have likely found a long-term bottom in the $40 range. However, the fundamental tailwinds for substantially higher prices are still vacant. OPEC won’t keep cutting production forever, the global economy remains weak, efficiencies are suppressing demand."

"But let’s be very clear about one thing... The Fed does NOT honestly believe in the strength of the recovery, that inflationary pressures are present OR that employment is as strong as stated... It’s actually quite the opposite."

"Adventures in depravity are nearly always confronted with the unpleasant reality that stopping the degeneracy is much more difficult than starting it. This realization, and the unsettling feeling that comes with it, usually surfaces just after passing the point of no return."

In a striking admission, Fed president Kaplan just said that the neutral rate of growth may be as low as 2.25%, which is another way of saying that r-star, or the equilibrium real interest rate of the US is a paltry 0.25%.

"The US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. That doesn't mean that a bear market is imminent, but it does amount to a stark warning against complacency."

In the second quarter of 2017, US household net worth rose by $1.7 trillion, reaching a record $96.2 trillion as the stock market soared and home prices hit new record highs. But while it would be great news if wealth across all of America had indeed risen as much as the Fed claims, the reality is that there is a big catch...