Matt Cooper: Fianna Fail are like Tories after Thatcher

Re-electing the taoiseach and his party is like giving the banks that almost destroyed the country a chance for redemption

Brian Cowen's political obituaries are being prepared. The consensus is that the outcome of the European and local election polls, as well as the two Dublin by-elections, will be disastrous for the party and terminal for the taoiseach. There is a growing sense that it is only a matter of time before the government falls, as independents withdraw support, the Greens hit the ejector button and nervous government backbenchers decide to take the independent route chosen by Joe Breen last year.

The pundits can see Cowen forced to lead Fianna Fail into a general election, the party being duly routed, Cowen replaced and a new leader elected. The only thing in doubt is the timeline. Some believe it could all kick off quite suddenly in the wake of the June elections, culminating in a September or October general election. Others suggest it will be triggered by a collapse of the