(CNN) – If the weather is good on January 3, Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses; if the weather is bad, a weaker turnout will result in a victorious Ron Paul, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee predicted Sunday.

Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, said the devotion disparity between supporters of the two contenders could greatly impact the outcome in the early voting state.

“Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there and it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers," the former Arkansas governor said on “Fox News Sunday.” “He's got people that would walk over broken glass for him, and they break the glass to be able to say they did it.”

“That’s where Mitt is at a disadvantage, he doesn’t have the devotion,” Huckbee added.

He also said Rick Santorum is underestimated and suggested the former Pennsylvania senator might place in the top three or four.

Santorum has made social issues the pillars of his White House bid in the Hawkeye State, much like Huckabee, a former minister, did in 2008. Despite success among the state’s religious voting bloc in the last presidential election, Huckabee’s Iowa win failed to catapult him to the GOP nomination, which was ultimately captured by Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The latest Iowa poll from the American Research Group released Friday showed Paul, Romney and Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie - with 21%, 20% and 19% support respectively. All the remaining candidates received less than 10% each.

Huckabee said negative ads have hurt former House Speaker Gingrich, who surged to the top of national and state-wide polls a few weeks ago but has now seen his support start to recede. To Huckabee, the negative advertisements sow doubt in the minds of voters, particularly those who have yet to make a final decision.

“If you’re soft on a candidate and every day you get pounded with about 20 messages … it’s easier to switch at that point,” Huckabee said. “That’s what’s happening to Newt.”

But Huckabee cautioned against using state-wide polling as the key predictor for the caucuses. In the end, it is the committed and devoted supporters that make the difference in Iowa’s system, he said.

“Polls, you pick up the phone and you say ‘ya, I kinda like so and so,’” Huckabee said. “Caucus, you’ve got to drive somewhere and stand up and be counted for that candidate. It’s a very different kind of atmosphere.”

NOTE: While it's too early to forecast precisely what the weather will be in Iowa on January 3, long-range climatological models indicate a warmer and drier January across the Midwest, according to CNN Meteorologist Sean Morris. There is a strong La Nina in the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, which typically causes winter storms to move across Canada instead of the lower 48 and keeps Arctic air bottle up North of the U.S.-Canadian border.

soundoff(81 Responses)

Paul is pro life, against marriage equity, wants to phase out Social Security. He's a libertarian so long as you don't like women, are homophobic, and ok with the elderly being impoverished.

Otherwise, vote for Obama.

December 25, 2011 11:46 pm at 11:46 pm |

Roberto

"Well, Lum, who's gonna be the President of the United States?"
"Well, Abner, I dunno. I'm a'guessin' it depends on what the weather is."

Cut! Take two!

"Well, Lum, who's gonna be President of the United States?"
"Well, Abner, I'm a'guessing it depends on what book Newt Gingrich wrote recently."

Cut! Take three!

"Well, Lum, who's gonna be President of the United States?"
"Well, Abner, I dunno. I'm a'figurin' it depends on what the folks are a thinkin' about when it comes 'homasekchals'."

Cut! Take two hundred ninety three...!

December 25, 2011 11:57 pm at 11:57 pm |

stomy123

Who really cares....Obama wins it in 2012 anyway...

December 26, 2011 12:13 am at 12:13 am |

Anonymous

Ron Paul won't win. Not even close! Dispite his organization and staunch supporters. Heck, and this wild Iowa winter weather pridiction being an advantage....these whimpy freedom fighters will run for heaters and hot cups of cocoa. No matter what the weather, Paul simply won't pull it off. Lucky if he's fourth!!!!

IF Ron Paul finishes better than 3rd in the Iowa caucus, I'll donate to his campaign.

December 26, 2011 12:21 am at 12:21 am |

ghostclown

What a joke. Huckabee sold out too.

December 26, 2011 12:25 am at 12:25 am |

Jason

If you aren't supporting Ron Paul, you are either really simple and just don't get it, or you wish for the demise of the USA. This is really not complicated at all. A clear contrast of good vs bad. Jon Huntsman would be an ideal VP to calm those who must take xanax to deal with our foreign and military policies.

December 26, 2011 01:10 am at 1:10 am |

M.A.

Ron Paul won't win. Can't win. Not even close! They're despirate. Despite his advantageous organization in this state and staunch supporters. These whimpy so called freedom fighters will run for heaters sea leg weary for the hot cups of cocoa. No matter what the weather shivers or not. Paul simply won't pull off finishing in the top two. Lucky if he's third or fourth best!!!! The odds about as good a snowball's chance surviving a valcanic erruption.

The constitution is irrelevant nowadays don't ya know! Who in the heck is gonna stand up at a caucus defending it. * ; )

Whomever Gloria has pegged is going to win by a landslide here. IF Ron Paul finishes first in the Iowa caucus, I'll donate to this so called campaign of his.

December 26, 2011 01:11 am at 1:11 am |

Lenny Pincus

Ron Paul is literally nuts. Mitt Romney is a cipher. Gingrich is a snake. Bachmann is confused. Santorum is a punch line. Perry is stupid. Seems like they are all qualified in this year's GOP.

December 26, 2011 01:21 am at 1:21 am |

Earthling

Romney is a used car salesman, and an obvious puppet. I would say he's for sale, except that he's already bought and paid for.

America has always been non-interventionist??? Are you kidding me? Did they teach anything resembling history at your school?

I will not be surprised if Ron Paul wins the nomination. I will be stunned if any of the GOP candidates wins the election. There's nothing there in any of them.

December 26, 2011 02:05 am at 2:05 am |

Mike Ikeo

Dr. Paul has a 30 year record of upholding individual freedom, rights, liberty, based on the Constitution. He opposes the corrupt over-powered Federal government with things like the TSA, the evil Patriot Act, the 4th amendment killing NDAA bill, the racist and corrupt War on Drugs, and the unjust wars in the middle east. Ron Paul is the only vote that can beat Obama, pulling votes from dissatisfied Dems, the growing Independent population, and a growing portion of the GOP. A vote for Paul is a vote for peace, prosperity and liberty.

December 26, 2011 03:39 am at 3:39 am |

donotworry

Such extremism and obstructionism is damaging to this country. If enough people support that, we will pay the piper. The rise of the Nazi Party in Germany talked a serious right wing Christian line just like these people and it was a disaster. Read the Nazi manifesto, it looks and feels the same. Odd how they connect it to Jesus... inconceivable that He would support this. The posters are so enraged, they hear no reason. Their fear and anger is being used by manipulators. This man justs wants on the bandwagon.

December 26, 2011 04:47 am at 4:47 am |

Bernard Webb

With each election, republican caucus-goers in Iowa become less and less like other Americans. At some point, it simply no longer matter what a bunch of far-out evangelical Christians in an atypical state think or who they vote for.

December 26, 2011 05:25 am at 5:25 am |

Anonymous

The corporate-controlled media does not want to run any positive stories about Paul. Ask yourselves why,

December 26, 2011 07:14 am at 7:14 am |

Clwyd

Ron Paul's supporters are very devoted, but their candidate is too old, too confused (Wants to legalize illegal drugs) and the rank and file of republicans are close to Nazi like in their conservatism. Not Libertarians!

December 26, 2011 07:32 am at 7:32 am |

billyslap

People will get what they deserve in a democracy, if you are ignorantt and foolish, you get scewwed by your inncompedence and lack of intellegencee because you think what your told to think, If intellegentt and openmined then you will have a chace, Dont choose what you are told by the tv box, corrrupt news organizzations, check in all out yourself, For me, the best choice sounds ron paul

December 26, 2011 07:55 am at 7:55 am |

winston333

Romney 2012! It would be great to have someone in the white house who has actually been an executive, had to meet payroll, and understands balance sheets. Remember when they asked Obama what he has run? His answer was his campaign for president – as is running for president were somehow a qualification for BEING president. And nobody challenged him. Unreal.

December 26, 2011 07:59 am at 7:59 am |

Canadian Jim

So La Nina curses us with cold Arctic air, which we're used to, so we just ignore and say, "Hey, it's Canada – what did you expect?" But it curses you with Mitt Romney. I'll take the cold Arctic air.

December 26, 2011 08:25 am at 8:25 am |

Marie MD

Oh goodie, now the huckster is a "predictor".
@winston333 – you do realize that your $250M flip flopper executive experience has mostly been to buy US based companies, fire all the American workers and send their jobs overseas, right? If not, here's news for you!!!
As far as the libertarian is concerned. He is WAY TOO OLD TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. This job ages anyone who steps into it. He would be dead, at tops, in six months. I do hope he realizes that he can't leave the job to his worthless son.

December 26, 2011 08:31 am at 8:31 am |

Therefore AndBecause

So much for Newt so strongly saying he was going to be the Republican nominee!!! Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, and HO, HO, Ho!!! He shouldn't have counted his chickens before they hatched! And now it's MOOT NEWT!! As for Rick Perry, that dude seriously needs to throw in the towel!! That's a foregone Conclusion!! He's Done!! So very, very DONE!!!

December 26, 2011 08:38 am at 8:38 am |

guy from Nm

He moved on to the Weather Channel? Very astute political punditry

December 26, 2011 08:43 am at 8:43 am |

Mike

Does this make Romney a "fair weather" friend?

December 26, 2011 08:57 am at 8:57 am |

Andrew Hall

Well then, here's praying for rain!

December 26, 2011 09:02 am at 9:02 am |

Romney, he changes his positions as often as his magic underwear.

Mittens said Obama is afraid of him...I hope the Mormon gets exactly what he wants ..,Obama in the general. Let's see how big and bad you think you are mitt.

December 26, 2011 09:04 am at 9:04 am |

TheDifferences ThatMatter

The problem with people like Ron Paul becoming President is that he is much Too OLD, for one thing. He is also too much against Social Security which just about EVERYONE in this country will depend upon sooner or later, perhaps sooner! He is also against the rights of same-sex couples! And he wants to Cut, Cut, Cut, ESSENTIAL services the People of this country very much Need! But leave it to a Libertarian to try to run things and it turns out that they can actually RUIN things! When the people depend on receiving back what they have paid into programs that Promised them a return in their golden years, there's nothing like Voting Democratic to get that accomplished!! That is why President Obama will get Four More Years! OBAMA/BIDEN 2012!

December 26, 2011 09:09 am at 9:09 am |

Anyone But

Ol' Ron Paul is so Pro Cutting all essential services and benefits the people have worked so hard for! That elderly man should have either been a barber or an obstetrician! He could better cut hair or an umbilical cord but Don't let him cut the nation's umbilical cord, our lifeline to the services we Expect to get, Need to get, and Deserve to get!!