Market Trends

Wholesale Market

Many of the dynamics in today’s market are eerily familiar to the resale value softness that occurred in the last decade, which ultimately peaked in 2002. At that time, year-over-year increases of off-lease vehicles entering the wholesale market exerted downward pressure on resale prices. It appears that we are on the same trajectory, with off-lease volumes peaking in 2016. What are you doing to prepare for these different market dynamics?

Wholesale used-vehicle prices during fourth quarter 2008 were the worst on record. Since then, wholesale prices rose significantly in January through March. The improvement in pricing in 1Q 2009 reflects better-than-expected retail sales of used vehicles. Resale values for mid-size sedans are substantially higher than in 2008, as are prices for light-duty trucks and SUVs. However, consumer confidence and credit availability remain two wildcards to the market's ongoing vitality.

We are currently in the midst of the worst used-vehicle market in the past 25 years. Year-over-year prices declined every month in 2008; however, wholesale prices did improve the first 10 days of January. Despite this, many fleets now find that the depreciation rates established 24-36 months ago are insufficient for today's resale market. In many cases, resale values of fleet vehicles are significantly below the remaining book value. Here's a forecast for what lies ahead in the wholesale market.

October was an extremely difficult month to remarket vehicles in the wholesale market as resale prices took a precipitous drop. Wholesale pricing, based on mixed mileage and seasonally adjusted, declined a record 6 percent in October. The lack of credit to both dealers and retail buyers has been the key catalyst contributing to the downturn in the wholesale market. The market forecast is gloomy until the credit gridlock is resolved.

When resale prices soften, there is a pendulum-like resurgence in marketing used vehicles to employees. On the other hand, when the resale market is strong, fleets are complacent about employee sales (waiting for buyers come to them) and do not aggressively market the program to new buyers. The national average of vehicles sold to employees is 23 percent. However, by aggressively marketing employee sales, many fleets could sell as much as 50 percent of their vehicles in-house.