Tuesday, June 14. 2005

SECURITY ALERT BOTTOM LINE - DEPORTATION WILL LEAD TO CHAOS
IsraelNationalNews.com - June 14, 2005

PA Senior Figure: "No Need to Disarm Terrorists"

The Palestinian Authority will not disarm militants until Israel totally withdraws to the pre-1967 borders, Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Nasser al-Kidwa said on Monday. PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has not distanced himself from the remarks, which mark a senior PA official going on record as being even more extreme than arch-terrorist Yasser Arafat.

The Oslo Accords in September 1993 were forged when Arafat wrote a letter to then-Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin, "The PLO renounces the use of terrorism and other acts of violence and will assume responsibility over all PLO elements and personnel in order to assure their compliance, prevent violations and discipline
violators." So noted analyst Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA.

Al-Kidwa, speaking to the Reuters news agency,! said, "Under international law, the Palestinian people have the right to resist this occupation and defend themselves. When occupation ends, it becomes a different matter." He stated that after Israel withdraws, everyone but the security apparatus would have to be disarmed.

Reuters also reported that Israel's Vice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had said in response to similar statements Kidwa made on PA television that a PA refusal to disarm terrorists was "akin to dropping a cluster bomb" on diplomatic negotiations.

The U.S.-sponsored Road Map plan says the PA leadership must "undertake visible efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt and restrain" those who plan anti-Israeli attacks, confiscate illegal weapons and dismantle terrorist infrastructures.

PA Leaders Promise Quiet - Until Disengagement

Jibril Rajoub, PA security advisor and former head of its secret police, says all terrorist gangs agree that the "period of calm" would remain in effect at least until Israel withdraws from Gaza.

After Israel quits Gaza and hands it over to the Arabs, Rajoub said, "we will be able to re-evaluate the situation."

The current period of relative quiet - featuring fewer attempted terror attacks per day than during the height of the Oslo War in 2001-2003 - is known in Arabic as a "tahadiye." It is not even as binding as a "hudna," which means a temporary ceasefire. Even this "tahadiye," however, will not last longer than the scheduled withdrawal/retreat from Gaza, Rajoub says, unless it is actively renewed by the various terrorist organizations.

Rajoub himself is known to have been behind terror attacks against Israelis. In March 1997, for instance, the Israeli gover! nment submitted to the U.S. administration a list of violent incidents in Hevron and Bethlehem that were steered by Rajoub.

Islamic Jihad and Hamas have gone even further than Rajoub, threatening to call off the tahadiye immediately. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are unhappy with Israel's "violations," namely, continued arrests of terror leaders and the recent killing of the Islamic Jihad terror chieftain in Jenin. They announced two days ago that they will no longer accept the situation of "one-sided quiet."

Rajoub is attempting to calm the situation by promising - on dubious grounds - that the tahadiye will remain in effect. Even he, however, is not guaranteeing that it will last past the disengagement.

In the meanwhile, Palestinian terrorists launched a Kassam rocket at Moshav Katif last night, fired off several mortar shells at Katif, Gadid, and northern Gaza over the holiday, and sniper-fired at an IDF position near Gadid. In addition, a 50-kilogram was found! and neutralized in northern Gaza. No one was hurt in these attacks.

Rajoub's intimidating remarks jibe perfectly with just-retired IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon's prediction. Yaalon said it is in the PA Arabs' interest to maintain quiet precisely until the disengagement is implemented, at which point a terror flare-up is sure to come. He said that the violence following the withdrawal will be full-fledged war, with a withdrawal from the rest of Judea and Samaria as the Palestinian Authority's objective. Tel Aviv and Kfar Saba will be placed under the same Kassam rocket threats that face Sderot today, he said.

Yaalon described the situation as follows: "You're out of Gaza? There'll be quiet [there]. You'll leave Judea and Samaria? There'll be quiet [there]. And if you leave Tel Aviv, then there will be quiet altogether!"

Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky will meet with PA officials today to coordinate the withdrawal from Gush Katif and no! rthern Shomron. This will be a continuation of a meeting held last week between Defense Minister Sha'ul Mofaz and Muhammad Dahlan, who holds the position of Disengagement Minister in the PA. Mofaz and Dahlan discussed border crossings to and from Gaza, security checks there, and how to ensure quick and efficient passage of Gazan Arabs through the checkpoints.

Left-Wingers Warn Against Disengagement

Yossi Beilin, Shlomo Ben-Ami, Ami Ayalon and others warn of the dangers - security and diplomatic - that the unilateral retreat/expulsion from Gaza/northern Shomron will create for Israel.

Former Justice Minister Yossi Beilin (pictured), currently not a Knesset Member but the chairman of the extreme left-wing Yahad/Meretz Party:

"If the disengagement does not lead to an immediate permanent status arrangement, it will bring a catastrophe upon both Israelis and Palestinians... It is liable to bring a renewal of violence [that] is liable to bring down the moderate Palestinian leadership...

There is a concrete danger that following the disengagement, the violence will greatly increase in [Judea and Samaria] in order to achieve the same thing [i.e., withdrawal - ed.] as was achieved in Gaza... A retreat from Gaza with nothing in return and with no agreement will strengthen Hamas."

Former Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami of the left-wing of the Labor Party:

"A unilateral retreat perpetuates Israel's image as a country that runs away under pressure... In Fatah and Hamas, they will assume that they must prepare for their third intifada - this time in [Judea and Samaria]... If we continue these unilateral steps, we will find ourselves establishing an enemy Palestinian state."

Former General Security Service chief Ami Ayalon:
"The captain of the disengagement can be compared to the captain of a ship who takes it from port to a very stormy sea, without knowing at all where he wants to lead it. And possibly even worse: He knows where he wants to lead it, but is hiding the information from his crew...

Retreat without getting anything in return is liable to be interpreted by some of the Palestinians as surrender. The plan is likely to strengthen extremist forces in the Palestinians society... There is a high chance that shortly after the disengagement, the violence will be renewed. 2006 is liable to be a year of another round of violence."

Ayalon said that the retreat from the northern Gaza communities - Dugit, Elei Sinai and Nisanit - is a "grave error. It has no demographic or security justification, and the price that it is liable to exact from us is not justified."

Former Air Force Commander Gen. Eitan Ben-Eliyahu:
"There is no chance that the disengagement will guarantee long-term stability. The plan as it stands can only lead to a renewal of terrorism... If there is no quick progress from the disengagement to a comprehensive retreat, [this will lead to] the one-state solution - bringing to an end of the Zionist dream, and the Jewish State will be lost."

Former IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Gen. Uzi Dayan:
"Retreat from Nisanit, Dugit and Elei Sinai is a double mistake: Security-wise, it unnecessarily brings the Kassam rocket threat closer to Ashkelon, and diplomatically, it creates a dangerous precedent of unilateral withdrawal to the 1967 lines, which strengthens the PA demands to return to the June 4, 1967 lines."

Former IDF Chief of Intelligence Gen. Shlomo Gazit:
"It is reasonable to assume that within a short time, we will face mortar shelling and Kassams from [Samaria and Judea]. These rockets and shells will hit Kfar Saba and maybe even reach Netanya."

Former Mossad head Ephraim HaLevy:
"After the disengagement, Israel will face a diplomatic crisis the likes of which we have not known for years."

Former Mossad head Shabtai Shavit:
"The disengagement plan sabotages itself, creating a situation of instability. The plan does not create the necessary minimum of balance that would enable long-term coexistence... Immediately after the disengagement, Israel will find itself on a crash pattern with the United States."

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