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Plenty of gamblers buy too much into perception and what just happened the week before, especially in the NFL. Sometimes, the teams that didn’t perform well the prior week are actually strong looks in their next game.

Numbers never lie and all bettors looking for another angle should check out the below system that has been a proven winner annually.

Play on any home underdog that is coming off a road loss of at least 21 points or more

Since 2006 and including this season, teams in these situations have gone 34-21 against the spread, hitting at a 62% clip.

If you delve into these numbers further, you’ll see that these underdogs own a sterling 22-10 ATS (69%) mark when receiving at least 5 ½-points.

Looking at the above table, you can see that it’s hitting 60% but make a note that it’s also perfect (2-0) with home underdogs catching 5 1/2-points or more. The Vikings earned the backdoor cover last week against the Packers and two weeks ago, the Buccaneers knocked off the Saints outright.

The situation comes up again in Week 8, with New Orleans heading to St. Louis as a double-digit favorite. It’s certainly hard to make a case on the Rams considering the team has only scored 56 points this season and the status of quarterback Sam Bradford is ‘doubtful.’

We understand New Orleans can be a juggernaut at times, evidenced by its 62-point outburst last Sunday against Indianapolis. However, are you aware that the Saints are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season? Do you know that New Orleans is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 on the road versus non-divisional opponents?

Also, even though we all hear the “one game at a time” approach spoken by head coaches, the look-ahead spot fits not once but twice for the Saints. After the Rams, New Orleans hosts Tampa Bay before heading to Atlanta.

As you all know, nothing is guaranteed in sports betting but the premise of this system is to not discount teams that are coming off less than stellar performances, since you can find value in these squads as ‘dogs, especially in their house.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

One of the NFL’s nastiest rivalries resumes Sunday night in Philadelphia when the hated Cowboys roll into town.

Both teams have big-play offenses that are prone to making mistakes. The follies of Tony Romo have been well-chronicled, but it’s Philly who leads the NFL in turnovers (17). Last December in Dallas, the Eagles got big play after big play in a 30-27 win over the Cowboys. But it’s what happened in their last game this season that’s encouraging for Philly. After allowing opponents to run all over them in their first five games, they held Washington to just 42 yards on 14 carries in Week 6, and they had a bye week to further improve their run defense. Those early-season defensive struggles are among the reasons they’re only a small favorite in this game, but Philly obviously has the offensive firepower to run up the score on Dallas. As long as they can minimize turnovers, the Eagles should win this one by at least a touchdown. PHILADELPHIA is the play here.

This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick the Eagles:

DALLAS is 5-19 ATS (20.8%, -15.9 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. The average score was DALLAS 16.9, OPPONENT 23.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Dallas has won four of the past five meetings (SU and ATS) with Philly, but this game could come down to whether the Cowboys running game can keep it going against a suspect Eagles run defense. Rookie RB DeMarco Murray is coming off a franchise-record 253 rushing yards in a 34-7 blowout win over the lowly Rams. This was the first Dallas game this year that was decided by more than four points. The ever-erratic Romo has been just that in this series. In 10 meetings with the Eagles, he has thrown for 180 yards per game, 10 TD and 10 INT. However, he finally has all three of his top receivers healthy. The trio of WR Dez Bryant, WR Miles Austin and TE Jason Witten have all 11 of the team’s TD catches and have combined for 22 gains of 20+ yards this year.

The Dallas defense has certainly improved under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan this year. The Cowboys lead the NFL in rushing defense (69.7 YPG) and have forced 12 turnovers in six games. They could be without their top cornerback though, as Terence Newman is questionable with a hand injury.

Last December, it was the big play that led Philly to a 30-27 win. DeSean Jackson had 210 yards on four catches and LeSean McCoy had 149 yards on just 16 carries. The Cowboys showed the world they could rush the football, but the Eagles also know a thing or two about gaining yards on the ground. McCoy and QB Michael Vick continue to propel the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense (170 YPG). But Vick has struggled throwing the football, with a pedestrian 84.4 QB rating (9 TD, 8 INT). Last year, Vick had a 100.2 QB rating (21 TD, 6 INT). In Vick’s lone start against Dallas in an Eagles uniform last year, he was 16-of-26 for 270 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT and rushed for 16 yards and another score. WR Jeremy Maclin is having a great season, catching 36 passes for 469 yards and 3 TD in his past five games. Philadelphia has an unhealthy streak of five consecutive games with multiple turnovers.

On defense, the Eagles could get a nice boost if DE Trent Cole returns to the field. Cole, who has five sacks in eight career meetings with Dallas, has missed the past two games with a calf injury, but has resumed practicing this week. The passing defense ranks 10th in the league (214 YPG) and has allowed just one opponent to throw for 250 yards this year (49ers 278).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Even in its best days, Dick LeBeau’s Pittsburgh defense has been no match for Tom Brady. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS and SU against the Steelers with Brady under center, and he has picked apart the blitz-heavy Steel Curtain in the past two meetings, posting a 121.4 rating without getting sacked in two double-digit New England wins. The Patriots defense has made strides in their past two games, holding the Jets to 255 total yards and the Cowboys to 377 yards. The expected return of star LB Jerod Mayo will only help New England stop an erratic Pittsburgh rushing game. The pick here is NEW ENGLAND to leave the Steel City with another victory.

There’s also two highly-rated FoxSheets trends working for well-rested New England:

Bill Belichick is 33-11 ATS (75.0%, +20.9 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 26.4, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Play On - Road favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. (32-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80%, +23.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Brady has thrown 14 TD and only 3 INT in his seven career meetings with Pittsburgh, and he’s having another phenomenal season with a league-high 361 passing YPG. Brady has completed 68% of his passes, tallying 16 TD and 8 INT. Much of this success has to do with WR Wes Welker, who leads the NFL in receptions (51), targets (74) and receiving yards per game (131). Welker had eight catches for 89 yards in last year’s meeting with Pittsburgh. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been solid all season with 391 rushing yards (4.3 YPC) and five touchdowns despite his longest gain being 16 yards. He is the biggest reason the pass-happy Patriots also rank 10th in the NFL in rushing yardage (124 YPG).

New England has surrendered 300+ passing yards in five of six games this year, and continues to rank last in the NFL in passing defense (322 YPG). However, the Raiders are the only opponent that have rushed for more than 100 yards on the Patriots this season.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is on fire, throwing for 781 yards and nine touchdowns during his team’s three-game winning streak. He has also played well against New England in his career. Including the postseason, Roethlisberger has thrown 12 TD and 5 INT in six lifetime meetings. He’ll continue to use the blazing speed of Mike Wallace to move the football. In his lone career meeting against the Patriots last year, Wallace caught eight passes for 136 yards and 2 TD. He currently ranks third in the NFL with 730 receiving yards, is gaining 20.3 yards per catch and has scored touchdowns in three straight games. The running game has been up-and-down all season, and it is coming off a down week of gaining 91 yards on 28 carries (3.3 YPC) at Arizona. Top RB Rashard Mendenhall has reached 70 yards only once in six games this year, a monstrous 146-yard effort (6.3 YPC) two weeks ago against Jacksonville. Mendenhall’s YPC average is 2.9 in his other five games.

Pittsburgh has a league-worst minus-9 turnover ratio, which is a respectable minus-2 since the seven-turnover, Week 1 debacle (35-7 loss) in Baltimore. But the defense is just not creating havoc like it has in years past, forcing only three turnovers in seven games. Despite the lack of turnovers, Pittsburgh has the NFL’s top passing defense (172 YPG) and ranks 12th in stopping the run (107 YPG). No team has surpassed 20 points on Pittsburgh since the Ravens game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

One of the NFL’s nastiest rivalries resumes Sunday night in Philadelphia when the hated Cowboys roll into town.

Both teams have big-play offenses that are prone to making mistakes. The follies of Tony Romo have been well-chronicled, but it’s Philly who leads the NFL in turnovers (17). Last December in Dallas, the Eagles got big play after big play in a 30-27 win over the Cowboys. But it’s what happened in their last game this season that’s encouraging for Philly. After allowing opponents to run all over them in their first five games, they held Washington to just 42 yards on 14 carries in Week 6, and they had a bye week to further improve their run defense. Those early-season defensive struggles are among the reasons they’re only a small favorite in this game, but Philly obviously has the offensive firepower to run up the score on Dallas. As long as they can minimize turnovers, the Eagles should win this one by at least a touchdown. PHILADELPHIA is the play here.

This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick the Eagles:

DALLAS is 5-19 ATS (20.8%, -15.9 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992. The average score was DALLAS 16.9, OPPONENT 23.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Dallas has won four of the past five meetings (SU and ATS) with Philly, but this game could come down to whether the Cowboys running game can keep it going against a suspect Eagles run defense. Rookie RB DeMarco Murray is coming off a franchise-record 253 rushing yards in a 34-7 blowout win over the lowly Rams. This was the first Dallas game this year that was decided by more than four points. The ever-erratic Romo has been just that in this series. In 10 meetings with the Eagles, he has thrown for 180 yards per game, 10 TD and 10 INT. However, he finally has all three of his top receivers healthy. The trio of WR Dez Bryant, WR Miles Austin and TE Jason Witten have all 11 of the team’s TD catches and have combined for 22 gains of 20+ yards this year.

The Dallas defense has certainly improved under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan this year. The Cowboys lead the NFL in rushing defense (69.7 YPG) and have forced 12 turnovers in six games. They could be without their top cornerback though, as Terence Newman is questionable with a hand injury.

Last December, it was the big play that led Philly to a 30-27 win. DeSean Jackson had 210 yards on four catches and LeSean McCoy had 149 yards on just 16 carries. The Cowboys showed the world they could rush the football, but the Eagles also know a thing or two about gaining yards on the ground. McCoy and QB Michael Vick continue to propel the NFL’s top-ranked rushing offense (170 YPG). But Vick has struggled throwing the football, with a pedestrian 84.4 QB rating (9 TD, 8 INT). Last year, Vick had a 100.2 QB rating (21 TD, 6 INT). In Vick’s lone start against Dallas in an Eagles uniform last year, he was 16-of-26 for 270 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT and rushed for 16 yards and another score. WR Jeremy Maclin is having a great season, catching 36 passes for 469 yards and 3 TD in his past five games. Philadelphia has an unhealthy streak of five consecutive games with multiple turnovers.

On defense, the Eagles could get a nice boost if DE Trent Cole returns to the field. Cole, who has five sacks in eight career meetings with Dallas, has missed the past two games with a calf injury, but has resumed practicing this week. The passing defense ranks 10th in the league (214 YPG) and has allowed just one opponent to throw for 250 yards this year (49ers 278).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 517 contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

NFL: The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last five overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

NFL: The over is 6-0 in the Colts’ last six overall and 4-1 in the Titans’ last five overall.

NFL: The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.

NHL: The Kings are 5-1 in their last six overall and 5-1 in their last six road games.

CFL: Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning SU records.

Who’s not

NFL: The Dolphins are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.

NFL: The over is 1-6 in the Jaguars’ last seven overall and 1-5 in the Texans’ last six against the AFC.

NFL: The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

NHL: The Blue Jackets are 3-13 in their last 16 home games dating back to last season.

CFL: Montreal is 0-4 ATS in its last four overall.

Key stat

150.9 – Number of rushing yards allowed per game by the Indianapolis Colts, second worst in the NFL ahead of only St. Louis and well behind any other team. Something will have to give when Titans’ running back Chris Johnson faces this porous run defense. Johnson has a mere 268 yards on 93 carriers (2.9 average) this season and he has rushed for more than 53 yards just once in six games.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

New England Patriots’ running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis is listed as questionable for Sunday’s showdown at Pittsburgh due to a toe injury. He was limited in practice all week but is not expected to miss the game.

A bigger area of concern could be New England’s secondary, where Ras-I Dowling has been placed on injured reserve. The Pats released Leigh Bodden on Friday, meaning they only have two defensive backs (Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington) on the roster with significant starting experience. They are dead last in the league in passing defense, giving up 322.2 yards per game.

Biggest games on the slate

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (2.5, 52.5)

Notable quotable

“I don't think we've diminished our start by any means. I think the way we approach the season is in four quarters. In the first quarter, we obviously came out 4-0. The second quarter, we're obviously 1-2 and we want to be able to get to .500 with that.” – Detroit Lions’ defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in the wake of his team’s current two-game losing streak at the hands of San Francisco and Atlanta. Detroit visits Tim Tebow and Denver on Sunday.

Tips and notes

Steelers’ receiver Hines Ward is questionable with an ankle injury for Sunday’s game against New England. He is not expected to play. Still, Pittsburgh may be able to do its part in another PIT-NE clash going over the total. Seven of the last eight meetings between the two teams have gone over and the over is 5-0 in the last five in Pittsburgh. The Patriots have scored at least 30 points in five of six outings this season.

There’s a lot going on in Miami right now, and not just because Tony Sparano is on the hot seat as the Dolphins are in hot pursuit of Andrew Luck. They ruled out both running back Daniel Thomas and cornerback Vontae Davis from Sunday’s game against the Giants. Wideout Brandon Marshall doesn’t seem to concerned. He offered a borderline guarantee on Twitter, saying, “"To: Media When we win Sunday please don't say the Giants didn't take us serious."

The Ottawa Senators are the only team in the NHL that has allowed more than 40 goals this season, and they have let in a whopping 43. Sure, they have played 11 games (more than most squads), but they still own a league-worst 3.91 GAA. As a result, a recent over trend could continue when Ottawa hosts Toronto. The over is 7-1-1 in the Sens’ last nine home games and 5-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last five overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

Week 8's NFL betting action commences on Sunday, and here at Don Best we're keeping a close eye on what's going on with line movement and injury reports for each of the games.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
The big news in this game is that Andre Johnson is going to miss out for a fourth straight week with his hamstring injury. As a result, the total has dropped from 42 to 40½, but the spread has remained consistent at Houston by nine.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Matt Hasselbeck injured his thumb last week against Houston, but has been practicing all week and should be fine. For Indianapolis though, there are still a ton of question marks. With six already on IR (and that doesn't include Peyton Manning), the team figures to not have Ryan Diem and might not have Joseph Addai, Anthony Gonzalez or Pat Angerer either this week. Yet, the Colts have come down from +10½ at the beginning of the week to +8½ as of Saturday morning. The total has risen from 42 to 43½.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
All of the betting lines in this game have stayed consistent. Carolina remains favored by 3½-points, and the total is still set at 46½. Both Percy Harvin (ribs) and Adrian Peterson (ankle) appear on the injury report as probable, but neither one is expected to be limited on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
Beanie Wells has a bone bruise that is likely to keep him out of the fold for the next two, possibly three weeks. Meanwhile, both Joey Porter and Early Doucet have been out of practice all week with injuries, and both are listed as questionable on the injury report. Baltimore is still getting the nod by a dozen points, but the total has dropped just a bit from 44½ to 43.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants
It looks as though Matt Moore is going to give it a go for the Dolphins even though he suffered an injury to his ribs last week. The Giants were expecting to get Prince Amukamara back in the fold this week, but it looks as though his ankle injury is going to delay his debut for at least one more week. Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs should be back in the lineup, though. The Dolphins are still 9½-point underdogs, though that number is down from 10½-points at the start of the week. The total has held at 42.

New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams
The 0-6 Rams still have some problems this week. Three normal starters, Danario Alexander, Sam Bradford and Jason Smith are going to miss this game. Mark Ingram is also out for the Saints, but they really shouldn't have to struggle in this one. They're still favored by two touchdowns, and the total has remained at 47 or 47½ (depending on the sportsbook) all week long.

Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills
The oddsmakers are expecting to see the de facto hosts triumph in Toronto, as the Bills are still favored by 4½-points, while the total has dropped just a bit to 45 from 46. London Fletcher has played in 214 consecutive games, but he is battling a hamstring injury that has him listed as questionable on the injury report. Oshiomogho Atogwe and DeAngelo Hall are both questionable as well. For the Bills, the only real news this week is the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick just inked a new six-year contract worth $59M.

Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
A ton of action is coming in on the Broncos in this one, as they are now at just +1 after opening at +3½. We wouldn't be surprised to see them favored by the time this one kicks off, especially if Matt Stafford doesn't play for the Lions. The former No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft has an ankle injury. He's expected to play, but isn't absolutely in the lineup. Both starting running backs, Jahvid Best and Willis McGahee, are out on Sunday.

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The spread and total have held firm in this game at New England by 2½ and 52½ virtually all week after an early spike in the total from the open at 51½. James Harrison was hoping to get back in the fold this week with his eye injury, but he will sit again, as might Hines Ward, who has an ankle injury. Albert Haynesworth, Jerod Mayo, and Julian Edelman are amongst those that are still listed as questionable for the Patriots.

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are still favored by nine points to move to 6-1 on the season. The total in this one has dropped a point to 38½. Peyton Hillis' frustrating season is continuing with his hamstring injury, which will likely keep him out of the lineup, while former first round NFL Draft choice, Joe Haden has been held out of practice and is questionable with a sore knee. For the Niners, Braylon Edwards figures to play for the first time since Week 2 with a knee injury.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks
Mother Nature is expecting to make this a rough day for the Bengals and Seahawks, as there is plenty of rain in the forecast. Cedric Benson is serving his one-game suspension this week, and Marshawn Lynch figures to sit for a second straight game as well. The pectoral injury for Tarvaris Jackson may still keep him out of the fold, and if it does, it'll be catastrophic for an offense which managed just 140 yards last week with Charlie Whitehurst calling the shots. The total is dipping in this game to 37½, the lowest of the weekend, and things could only get worse if the weather forecast doesn't improve. The Bengals are still favored by a point.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
There is a strong lean towards Dallas and the 'under' this week, as the Cowboys have crossed from +3½ to +3. The total is down three points from the open to 48. Felix Jones continues to sit this week with his ankle injury, while Tashard Choice is questionable with a shoulder problem. Of course, those injuries truly won't make a difference if rookie DeMarco Murray can rumble for another 250+ yards as he did last week against the Rams.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

The Chiefs seek their fourth consecutive victory as AFC West foe San Diego visits Kansas City on Halloween night.

The Chargers haven’t been sharp en route to a 4-2 record, and one of their ugliest wins was at home against Kansas City in Week 3. The Chiefs came into the game reeling after two blowout losses, but hung around to the point that they had the ball in San Diego territory for a final drive in a 20-17 Chargers win. In Week 7, San Diego choked away a big lead against the Jets with a turnover-filled second half. Kansas City has gotten back on track with three straight wins thanks to an improved defense and QB Matt Cassel’s play going from disastrous to just slightly below mediocre. The Chargers have won seven of the past eight games in this series, and although they are just 4-4 ATS in these meetings, this small spread should not be difficult to cover. The pick here is SAN DIEGO.

This FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick the Chargers:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. (23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*).

And this four-star FoxSheets coaching trend expects this game to be high-scoring and finish OVER the total.

Norv Turner is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of SAN DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 29.7, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Although the Chargers have scored at least 21 points in all six contests this year, they haven’t yet reached 30 points in any game. QB Philip Rivers has thrown for 286 YPG, but has more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7) this season. Although he’s 9-3 lifetime against K.C., his numbers haven’t been overwhelming: 233 passing YPG, 17 TD and 12 INT. San Diego’s ground game appeared to get back on track two games ago when it rushed for 206 yards at Denver, but the Jets held the team to 96 yards on 25 carries. Mike Tolbert rushed for a season-high 58 yards (5.3 YPC) against the Jets, but he could miss this game with hand and hamstring injuries. Fellow RB Ryan Mathews is also dinged up with a thumb injury and is coming off a season-low 39 yards on 13 carries. WR Vincent Jackson needs a big bounce-back game after being held to one catch by Darrelle Revis and the Jets, especially since the team’s No. 2 receiver, Malcom Floyd (hip) may not suit up on Monday night. TE Antonio Gates finally returned to action last week after missing three games with a foot injury. He caught five passes for 54 yards and a touchdown in the loss to New York, and has been a Chiefs killer over the years with 73 catches for 879 yards and 12 TD in 13 career games against the division rival.

On defense, San Diego has been very stingy in the passing game (176 YPG, 3rd in NFL), as the Patriots were the only team to tally more than 180 net passing yards against them. The run defense has been more generous (122 YPG, 21st in NFL), allowing an identical 162 rushing yards in each of the past two games. San Diego has only seven takeaways in six games this year.

The Chiefs have come a long way since they last faced San Diego in Week 3. They have been able to adjust to season-ending knee injuries to three of their best players (RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki), and put together a strong three-game run. Cassel threw for five touchdowns in wins over Minnesota and Indianapolis, but he had a brutal 38.3 QB rating last week in Oakland, completing 15-of-30 passes for 161 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. WR Dwayne Bowe is having a huge season with 496 receiving yards and four touchdowns, including four catches for 67 yards and 1 TD against San Diego in Week 3. However, in his previous three meetings with the Chargers, Bowe had a meager four total catches for 27 yards and a score. RB Jackie Battle has really stepped up in his first real opportunity to shine in four seasons with the Chiefs. In his past two games, he has carried the ball 35 times for 195 yards (5.6 YPC). In his first three seasons in K.C., Battle had 41 carries for 118 yards (2.9 YPC).

The defense turned in quite a performance in last week’s 28-0 shutout in Oakland. K.C. defenders picked off six passes, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. However, the Chiefs have allowed 29.0 PPG to San Diego in the past five meetings, so they’ll need to create some more turnovers to keep the high-powered Chargers in check.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:

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