Preseason vs. Regular Season

Lots of people will tell you that exhibition games are meaningless; a team’s record in the preseason is a poor indication of how they’ll perform in the regular season. Is that really the case?

We dived into the numbers from every Hornets’ preseason and regular season. Here’s what we found.

Win Percentage

Season

Preseason

Regular Season

1988-89

.286

.244

1989-90

.500

.231

1990-91

.625

.305

1991-92

.375

.378

1992-93

.444

.537

1993-94

.500

.500

1994-95

.285

.610

1995-96

.500

.500

1996-97

.250

.659

1997-98

.500

.622

1998-99

.000

.520

1999-00

.625

.597

2000-01

.571

.561

2001-02

.625

.537

2002-03

.250

.573

2003-04

.625

.500

2004-05

.375

.219

2005-06

.375

.463

2006-07

.286

.476

2007-08

.500

.683

2008-09

1.000

.598

2009-10

.250

n/a

That data in a graph:

As you can see, there is some correlation between the two outcomes – but nothing that is fixed in stone. I looked around for studies about the correlation between pre-season and the regular season and found an average correlation of .34 between NBA’s pre-season and Regular season. A correlation of 1.0 would mean they are an exact match. A correlation of 0 means that they are completely independent – i.e. you can draw nothing from pre-season at all. A correlation of -1.0 means that they are exactly opposite.(I.E. a team that wins 25% of its games in the preseason would win 75% of its regular season games)

For the football fans among you, it looks like there is a .25 correlation between football’s regular and pre-season. So the NBA’s pre-season is slightly more predictive, but not much.

Here are a bunch of other stat comparisons for you to consume as well. In essence, they tell much the same story as the record – but they are still interesting on their own.

Points For

Average points scored by the Hornets.

Season

Preseason

Regular Season

1988-89

101.7

104.5

1989-90

102.8

100.4

1990-91

107.4

102.8

1991-92

113.8

109.5

1992-93

115.9

110.1

1993-94

112.6

106.5

1994-95

110.3

100.6

1995-96

100.9

102.8

1996-97

97.5

98.9

1997-98

99.0

96.6

1998-99

76.5

92.9

1999-00

103.0

98.4

2000-01

94.1

91.9

2001-02

87.4

93.9

2002-03

83.5

93.9

2003-04

93.9

91.8

2004-05

94.6

88.4

2005-06

93.8

92.8

2006-07

94.3

95.5

2007-08

100.4

100.9

2008-09

99.9

95.8

2009-10

93.3

n/a

That data in a graph:

Points Against

Average points scored by opposing teams.

Season

Preseason

Regular Season

1988-89

109.6

113.0

1989-90

99.6

108.2

1990-91

102.0

108.0

1991-92

119.4

113.4

1992-93

122.0

110.4

1993-94

112.1

106.7

1994-95

113.7

97.3

1995-96

101.9

103.4

1996-97

103.4

97.0

1997-98

97.8

94.6

1998-99

87.0

93.0

1999-00

100.9

95.8

2000-01

88.7

89.8

2001-02

85.3

92.9

2002-03

92.4

91.8

2003-04

90.9

91.9

2004-05

93.6

95.5

2005-06

95.6

95.6

2006-07

101.9

97.1

2007-08

101.4

95.6

2008-09

84.9

94.3

2009-10

103.3

n/a

That data in a graph:

Points Differential

The difference between the average points scored by the Hornets, and the average points scored by their opponents.

Season

Preseason

Regular Season

1988-89

-7.9

-8.5

1989-90

+3.2

-7.8

1990-91

+5.4

-5.2

1991-92

-5.6

-3.9

1992-93

-6.1

-0.3

1993-94

+0.5

-0.2

1994-95

-3.4

+3.3

1995-96

-1.0

-0.6

1996-97

-5.9

+1.9

1997-98

+1.2

+2.0

1998-99

-10.5

-0.1

1999-00

+2.1

+2.6

2000-01

+5.4

+2.1

2001-02

+2.1

+1.0

2002-03

-8.9

+2.1

2003-04

+3.0

-0.1

2004-05

+1.0

-7.1

2005-06

-1.8

-2.8

2006-07

-7.6

-1.6

2007-08

-1.0

+5.3

2008-09

+15.0

+1.5

2009-10

-10.0

n/a

That data in a graph:

So what does it all mean? It means that there is a loose correlation between pre-season and regular season, but that there is enough difference in the results that teams regularly differ greatly.

In other words, I’d ignore the record, and instead focus on how individual players seemed to fit into the rotations.

Note for those still wanting a silver lining: Okafor projects to be either the 2nd or 3rd most productive player on the team based on various advanced statistics. Diogu also projects to have the same sort of impact, though most likely in limited minutes. Missing guys that important would tend to have a major impact on a team’s wins, even before we consider the fact that their minutes were used primarily by . . . Hilton Armstrong.