The case against signing Carlos Beltran

When the Giants were known to be looking for offensive help back in July, Carlos Beltran was a popular choice among most, including many bloggers who cover the team. At first I was upset, because I thought Zack Wheeler was a little pricey for a rental player and I would have preferred if the Giants had gotten more athletic by trading for a guy like B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn instead.

But the Giants were in a pretty good position standings-wise at the time. The Giants welcomed Beltran to the team in the middle of a series win in Philadelphia. Beltran didn’t hit much in the beginning, but once he got going, watch out…

Then Beltran continued not hitting, hurt his hand/wrist/whatever and hit the DL for a while. Meanwhile the Giants imploded, and by the time Beltran came back and started hitting (really well, in fact), it was too late. Beltran’s quest for .300 was successful, but the trade wasn’t if the point was to spark the team to another playoff run.

However, even though the Giants’ record was 26-32 after the trade for Beltran, the prevailing wisdom on whether or not to re-sign him goes pretty much like this:

The Giants couldn’t hit last season.

Carlos Beltran is a good hitter.

The Giants should re-sign Carlos Beltran.

Okay, that 3-part set of reasons is too simplistic. There’s an additional 3-parter that comes into play:

The Giants have money to spend on free agents, but the ownership group is too stingy to sign Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Jose Reyes.

Besides those three guys, there aren’t any can’t-miss free agent bats out there. Even though he’s past his prime, Beltran’s the best hitter in the group that’s left.

It seemed a couple weeks ago like almost everyone was in favor of bringing the guy back, so I lobbed a question to Giants fans on Twitter:

Then Scott “Excel God” Willis put together a survey AND graphed out the results after a week’s worth of votes. After the results were in, it was official: I am in the minority on this whole Beltran thing.

Here’s why I would recommend to the Giants to hold off on offering Beltran a contract higher than something he’d never sign, like a 2-year, $20MM deal.

Just because you have money doesn’t mean it always makes sense to spend it.
There have been a couple other times when the Giants treated free agency as if they owned a multimillion dollar gift card that was set to expire in March. That’s how they ended up paying Barry Zito $126MM and Aaron Rowand $60MM. That’s not to say Beltran isn’t significantly more talented than either Zito or Rowand were when the Giants made their lives with astronomical contract offers, but…

Beltran isn’t exactly durable.
One of the things that’s held the Giants back in recent years has been their refusal to change their perspective on the career arcs of veteran players. The BALCO era is one of the culprits, creating the veteran model where a guy figures things out at age 30 and cruises along at that rate until he starts wearing Tommy Bahama.

Beltran, who’ll turn 35 next season, hit the DL once but still played in a respectable 142 games last season. His contract year. In 2009 and 2010, Beltran played 145 games combined. If the Giants sign him it would probably take a third year on the deal (because it’s so cold here!), and the chances of Beltran playing another couple of half-seasons before turning it on in the final year of that deal in hopes of becoming a DH into his late-30s would be extremely high … as long as Beltran still had the ability to turn it on at age 37.

For a team that saw an abnormal number of players go to the disabled list in 2011, guys who have a decent chance at playing 145 games are the focus — which is probably why they jumped at the chance to trade for Melky Cabrera. Cabrera probably won’t match his production from last year, but he can be counted on to play 144 games (his average over the last six seasons).

Beltran’s cost isn’t just financial.
Beltran is a true pro. When he plays, he produces. When the game’s over, he answers questions from the media.

(Curb Your Enthusiasm alert)

THAT BEING SAID … The 2010 Giants got lucky, according to many. That’s probably true in that they got hot at the right time and Bobby Cox gave up on Brooks Conrad a game too late. But they also — at least from an outsider’s view — looked like a real team. There were some eclectic characters, some of whom may have worn out their welcome to an extent, but they all seemed to be pulling for one another and sacrificing for the good of the team during that surreal, fantastic run.

Beltran doesn’t seem like a bad guy, and he seemed to get along quite well with Pablo Sandoval and Andres Torres in particular. But Beltran didn’t play in right field over Nate Schierholtz before Schierholtz broke his foot because he was the better defender. And once in RF, Beltran made a few decent plays. Several other times, Beltran looked like he was running at about 33% speed. Same with some of the double plays he grounded into. Beltran complained about the weather at AT&T Park. He complained about the Giants using Cody Ross as a leadoff hitter (to be fair so were many Giants fans, but none of them were making about $3MM per month, either).

Waiting for bargains worked before.
Remember how great it was when the Giants signed Aubrey Huff? Not that crazy $22MM contract after the World Series when everyone was still drunk off Cook’s and Bud Light; the $3MM Sabean offered when Huff had few other options. Signing Juan Uribe was a similar proposition.

The point here isn’t that the Giants are guaranteed to have Grady Sizemore fall into their laps as a 1-year bargain, but that it’s not wise to overspend during a down free agent year simply because your wallet’s full.

I’m aware that a lot of this isn’t about Beltran. Giants fans heard night after night how AT&T Park was sold out, and as a result have no patience for talk about “rainy day funds” and “building a budget.”

The reality is that many high-priced free agents turn out to be relative busts. Making panic moves, even if the Giants’ offense was legitimately panic-worthy last season, will prove disastrous. It’s a recipe for Sabean explaining in 2017 why the Giants are having a hard time “building a budget” because they’re still paying Jose Reyes $22MM per year through 2018, even though part of his right hamstring was replaced with the unchewable portion of a McRib at the end of 2014 (the surgery will be successful, BTW).

I wish I had some magical free agents to suggest in lieu of Beltran and his manicured features, but I don’t. Grant’s got a few good suggestions for under-the-radar vets the Giants could go after (along with Beltran, but try to pay more attention to the Betemit portion). Free agency, at least in terms of one impact signing, isn’t the answer — not this year. The smarter move is to add a few moderately priced pieces, and if the offense is struggling midseason, the Giants can improve their team if they’re willing to take on additional salary. That’s the thing about having money. There’s always someone willing to accept it.

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That was a pre-tttyyyyyy, pre-ttttyyyyyyyyy, pre-tttyyyyyyy good write-up there, sir.

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The 142 contract year games played/145 the last 2 is a great point. Be careful what you wish for giant fans. (I voted for Yes, 2/30 for what its worth)

And hindsight is 20/20 but Wheeler for BJ Upton would have been pretty sweet at this moment. Was that ever on the table?

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Your wrong..and I dont see any case at all. Will he play for free? no. So who’s cheaper doesn’t mean much to me. Beltran was heating up,he has made strong hints he WANTS to play for the Giants unlike a Ross who has no loyalty to any team it seems. He’s already made it clear he won’t be back..unless nobody else wants him of course. I’m not sure why the media has this bias that Latin players are never worth the effort..but gee whizz and golly,Brandon Crawford is a team guy and then you have Saint Posey..well,I’ve said all this… Read more »

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This has nothing at all to do with Carlos Beltran being a Latin player. Period. I know the mistreatment of certain minority groups in the local media is one of your favorite subjects, but don’t lump me in with anybody else. It’s not that I think “Latin players are never worth the effort,” it’s that I believe high-priced veteran free agents are rarely worth the money. If he was 28, sure. Offer him 5 years. But he’s going to be 35 next season. What “strong hints” are you talking about? All his statements come off more like, “I wouldn’t be… Read more »

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He’s dropped his hard ball agent,and he’s talked about the nice team the Giants have put together..just needing a player…like him!
I’m sure Beltran wants a 5 or ten year contract..and I’m sure no team will offer that and he’s aware of that. The Giants can sign him-I know they are first Carlos choice.
Ross? he in August was talking of not coming back..until the sound of silence like a cancer grew..who wants him? So,Cody is leaving the only door open to him open? That’s big of him-lol.

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Good argument btwn stan and sports guy. both make very good points. here in the pc correct bay area, you cant say “latin player” without a bunch of hippies pitching tents in your front yard, so lets back away from that heavily-loaded phrase. beltran is a very good hitter, a mediocre glove in the national league, and injury prone. I also think he could suffer from ricky henderson-itis, which is signing for less maney than his prior mega-deal, then feeling under paid and moping around. for $5 – $8 mill a yr, he could be a good DH in the… Read more »

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It seems like Beltran was always sold on what he could do, but really never lived up to that potential. He signed with New York as a consummate 30/30 player, but never reached that milestone once with the Mets. In addition, in the years that he hasn’t had injury issues his numbers have been respectable, but since he has left KC they have never been gaudy. His best line post KC was in ’06: 127/41/116/.275… And that was at the end of the steroids era! (Not saying, but just saying… you know, comparatively speaking…) Last year’s combined numbers, IN A… Read more »

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