Democrat Al Gore and Republican George Bush are now in a virtual dead heat in Minnesota. Statewide, 44% of likely voters support Gore, while 41% back Bush, a significant 8% are for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, 1% favor Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan, and 6% are still undecided. Gore held a 47%-40% lead over Bush in September.

Poll Date

Gore

Bush

Buchanan

Nader

Undecided

October 2000

44%

41%

1%

8%

6%

September 2000

47%

40%

1%

4%

8%

August 2000

48%

40%

1%

3%

8%

July 2000

40%

43%

3%

5%

9%

February 2000

43%

40%

4%

n/a

13%

July 1999

39%

44%

n/a

n/a

17%

The gender gap remains in Minnesota, with Gore holding a 49%-35% lead among women and Bush ahead 46%-39% with men.

Gore
leads by 7 points in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area (46%-39%), has a narrower 44%-41% advantage in the Southeast, and is ahead by a wider 49%-33% margin in the Northeast. Bush leads 47%-38% in Southwest Minnesota and 49%-37% in Northwest.

Gore's
narrowing
lead can be attributed to increased support for Nader, whose backing jumped 4 points over the past month. Nader is doing the most damage to Gore in the Duluth/Iron Range region, where he is getting 11% of the vote. While Gore still leads in that area, Nader' s strength is pulling Gore's margin down.

Bush's personal
popularity has increased over the past month. Statewide, Bush's favorable name recognition (43%) is now almost on par with Gore's (44%). More interesting, is the fact that Gore's negatives have jumped 8 points and are now higher than Bush's (37%-33%).

Name Recognition

Al Gore

Recognize Favorable

Recognize Unfavorable

Recognize Neutral

Don't Recognize

July '99

37%

39%

24%

--

July '00

34%

34%

32%

--

August '00

46%

27%

27%

--

September '00

43%

29%

28%

--

October '00

44%

37%

19%

--

Name Recognition

George W. Bush

Recognize Favorable

Recognize Unfavorable

Recognize Neutral

Don't Recognize

July 1999

46%

16%

38%

--

July 2000

39%

26%

34%

1%

August 2000

37%

32%

30%

1%

September 2000

37%

30%

33%

--

October 2000

43%

33%

24%

-

Gore's visit to Minnesota may have shored up his support, and the state's voting history in presidential elections suggests it should lean towards the Democrat. However, the closeness of the race here so late in the campaign could be an indicator that Gore's campaign is having trouble. If Bush wins Minnesota, it may indicate a wide electoral college win for the GOP nominee.

Statewide Name Recognition

Candidate

Recognize Favorable

Recognize Unfavorable

Recognize Neutral

Don't Recognize

Al Gore

44%

37%

19%

--

George W. Bush

43%

33%

24%

--

Results:

QUESTION: If the 2000 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:

The Democratic ticket of Al Gore and Joe Lieberman?

The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney?

The Reform Party ticket of Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster?

The Green Party ticket of Ralph Nader and Winona
LaDuke?

Region

Gore

Bush

Buchanan

Nader

Undecided

Statewide

44%

41%

1%

8%

6%

Minneapolis/St. Paul

46%

39%

1%

7%

6%

Rochester/Southeast

44%

41%

1%

6%

8%

Southwest Minnesota

38%

47%

2%

8%

6%

Northwest Minnesota

37%

49%

1%

7%

6%

Duluth/Northeast

49%

33%

1%

11%

6%

Gender

Gore

Bush

Buchanan

Nader

Undecided

Men

39%

46%

2%

9%

4%

Women

49%

35%

1%

6%

9%

QUESTION: Have the presidential debates made you think:

Issue

Response

More highly of George W. Bush

24%

More highly of Al Gore

16%

More highly of Bush and Gore

7%

Not made you think more highly of either
Bush or Gore

40%

Don't Know/Refused/Did not watch

13%

QUESTION: Does
the current state of the U.S. economy make you more likely to vote for
Bush, more likely to vote
for Gore, or does it have no real effect on your vote?

Candidate

Response

More likely Gore

30%

More likely Bush

15%

No effect

53%

Not sure

2%

QUESTION: Does
the current situation in the Middle East make you more likely to vote for
Bush, more likely to
vote for Gore, or does it have no real effect on your vote?

Candidate

Response

More likely Gore

23%

More likely Bush

21%

No effect

54%

Not sure

2%

POLL METHODOLOGY

The Mason-Dixon
Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
of Washington, D.C. from October 26 through October 27, 2000. A total of
625 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed
were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone
numbers.A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an
accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect
voter turn-out county.

The
margin for error, according to standards customarily used by
statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95
percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if
the entire population were sampled.The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional
or gender grouping.

Sample Figures:
Men 310 (50%)
Women 315 (50%)

Region

Interviews

Minneapolis/St. Paul

350 interviews

Rochester/Southeast

71 interviews

Southwest Minnesota

64 interviews

Northwest Minnesota

68 interviews

Duluth/Northeast

72 interviews

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