pstarr wrote:The San Joaquin River is one among hundreds of salmon-bearing rivers and streams in California. The decline in all of them has gone on for decades, a consequence of hydro-electric dam construction, timbering clear-cutting/siltation, and agricultural runoff. I know of no reports that attribute that to climate change.

Actually, the San Joaquin River has just recently started to get some Chinooks returning. The Sacramento River has been the major source of California's Chinook salmon. All those trucked fingerlings dumped in Rio Vista that came back to be fished originated up here near Redding from state and federal hatcheries and were heading back up.

October 15th will be the 25th annual "Return of the Salmon" festival at the Coleman National Fish Hatchery near Anderson, CA. It's pretty impressive to go to Battle Creek near the hatchery and watch these 3-foot long fish splash through 6" of water and leap 5' high waterfalls to get back to the hatchery.

Clues from prehistoric droughts and arid periods in California show that today's increasing greenhouse gas levels could lock the state into drought for centuries, according to a study led by UCLA professor Glen MacDonald.

The study, published today in the Nature.com journal Scientific Reports, looked at how natural climatic forces contributed to centuries-long and even millennia-long periods of dryness in California during the past 10,000 years. These phenomena—sun spots, a slightly different earth orbit, a decrease in volcanic activity—intermittently warmed the region through a process called radiative forcing, and recently have been joined by a new force: greenhouse gases.

As long as warming forces like greenhouse gases are present, the resulting radiative forcing can extend drought-like conditions more or less indefinitely, said MacDonald, a distinguished professor of geography and of ecology and evolutionary biology.

"Radiative forcing in the past appears to have had catastrophic effects in extending droughts," said MacDonald, an international authority on drought and climate change. "When you have arid periods that persist for 60 years, as we did in the 12th century, or for millennia, as we did from 6,000 to 1,000 B.C., that's not really a 'drought.' That aridity is the new normal."

Our local North Bay gurus are modeling we get more extreme rainfall events (as in more extreme in nature, not number). The downscaled climate models are unclear on if we'll get more rain or less in total but are very clear that increased temperatures will lead to less available water overall (hydrologic deficit). It's going to get very interesting for local water managers in the coming years.

ritter wrote:Thanks for posting that, Vox. Not great news, but not unexpected.

Our local North Bay gurus are modeling we get more extreme rainfall events (as in more extreme in nature, not number). The downscaled climate models are unclear on if we'll get more rain or less in total but are very clear that increased temperatures will lead to less available water overall (hydrologic deficit). It's going to get very interesting for local water managers in the coming years.

Thanks, ritter.

These extremes are popping up all over.

When i lived in Phoenix, we might have 2-3 dust storms a year - now it's 15-20/year. And there's 3 or 4 (non-linear) degrees ahead of us

I wish you luck on the 'left' coast

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.

Despite California lifting mandatory statewide water restrictions earlier this year, 60 percent of the state is still in a severe or extreme drought.

The recently concluded water year, which is used to measure precipitation totals, was officially classified as dry across the state even though parts of Northern California experienced average to slightly above-average precipitation in the past year, according to a California Department of Water Resources, or CDWR, press release. The water year begins Oct. 1 and ends Sept. 30, because part of the precipitation accumulating as snow in late fall and winter does not melt until the following spring or summer.

The end of the recent water year marks the fifth consecutive drought year for the state, said CDWR spokesperson Doug Carlson.

Around the world, global warming is starting to have a serious impact on rainfall in the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropical atmospheric circulation known as the Hadley Cell is expanding toward the poles. This expansion is causing clouds and storms to move further north. And as a result, regions in the middle latitudes are starting to dry out.

According to The World Resources Institute:

A changing climate means less rain and lower water supplies in regions where many people live and much of the planet’s food is produced: the mid-latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres, including the U.S. Southwest, southern Europe and parts of the Middle East, southern Africa, Australia and Chile.

Around the world, global warming is starting to have a serious impact on rainfall in the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropical atmospheric circulation known as the Hadley Cell is expanding toward the poles. This expansion is causing clouds and storms to move further north. And as a result, regions in the middle latitudes are starting to dry out.

According to The World Resources Institute:

A changing climate means less rain and lower water supplies in regions where many people live and much of the planet’s food is produced: the mid-latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres, including the U.S. Southwest, southern Europe and parts of the Middle East, southern Africa, Australia and Chile.

The good water news for California is that almost all the state's largest reservoirs (located in the Sierras and in mountains of far northern California) are at almost "normal" levels. This October also has been wetter than normal. Note the drought map does NOT show any significant drought in those areas. The Central Coast is really the only area still suffering from extreme drought.

Up here in Shasta Lake, the lake level just reached its seasonal low of 2.57 million acre-feet. That is more stored water than the seasonal HIGH level was for the previous two rain-years. Also, we had 65" of rain in the most recent rain-year that ended October 1 - about the historical normal for us. So far this month, we've had 6.5" and the forecast is for another couple of inches by Halloween.

Ironically, my application was just accepted for a substantial rebate from the state's water-conservation program if I replace my front landscaping with drought-resistant landscaping. I have until January 15 to get the job done. I just hope the danged rain STOPS long enough in the next two months to let me get out there and do the required work!

That's funny hvac lol I just completed the same registration a few months ago. Took 5 pictures of the yard, measured the lot, etc. etc. Now, it's too damn wet to do anything. (Driving to SF tomorrow, the fan broke and I have to rent a car. On the phone now.) Strangely I'll be driving into the rain going south tomorrow. it will be sunny here in Humboldt but raining in SF. dang it all. More rain yikes

Nice to hear that reservoirs are in relatively good shape, and I do hope that things are OK in your particular enclaves, but do you guys really think that this means that there is no drought anywhere in California in spite of these reports??!!

In the short term, northern California (north of Sacramento), is doing OK. Another "normal"wet year will get most of the major reservoirs like Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and Melones to pre-drought shape. LA also is doing "OK", as they depend largely on Colorado River water and Lake Mead actually rose a bit last year.

But central California, from Monterey to Santa Barbara, is a water disaster area. They are isolated from the state and federal water systems - totally dependent on their own local water resources - and are in the brown bulls eye of the drought maps.

But no, a single "average" year, or even two, does not the end of the drought make. We had a similar cycle 10 years ago. Several years of dry, broken by a couple of years of wet recovery, then followed by several more years of extra-dry. The trend is generally drier state-wide and even on up into Oregon, which is why despite living in one of the historically-wettest places in California, I'm doing a landscape makeover and going with California natives.

hvacman wrote:In the short term, northern California (north of Sacramento), is doing OK. Another "normal"wet year will get most of the major reservoirs like Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and Melones to pre-drought shape. LA also is doing "OK", as they depend largely on Colorado River water and Lake Mead actually rose a bit last year.

But central California, from Monterey to Santa Barbara, is a water disaster area. They are isolated from the state and federal water systems - totally dependent on their own local water resources - and are in the brown bulls eye of the drought maps.

But no, a single "average" year, or even two, does not the end of the drought make. We had a similar cycle 10 years ago. Several years of dry, broken by a couple of years of wet recovery, then followed by several more years of extra-dry. The trend is generally drier state-wide and even on up into Oregon, which is why despite living in one of the historically-wettest places in California, I'm doing a landscape makeover and going with California natives.

What he said.

I'll add, we need years of average or above average to help our groundwater situation. Full reservoirs are great unless you've got a well.

IIRC there are areas in the Central Valley where ground water extraction has lowered the ground level up to 60'. Moreover the underlying sand has now compacted, due to loss of the fossil water and has largely lost the ability to retain water.

So it's like you drained the barrel and then put a hole in it. It's still there but can't be refilled.

Newfie wrote:IIRC there are areas in the Central Valley where ground water extraction has lowered the ground level up to 60'. Moreover the underlying sand has now compacted, due to loss of the fossil water and has largely lost the ability to retain water.

So it's like you drained the barrel and then put a hole in it. It's still there but can't be refilled.

I have to wonder how much surface water (if and when it was available) you could pump(or just pour) back down the bore holes and store in those aquifers to reduce your further depletion of the fossil water during the next dry cycle. I'd think you would pour it in until it wouldn't absorb anymore just to do as best as you can.

Well, there you have it, folks. Pstarr is sure that NOAA and every other scientific body who has looked into the situation and concluded that much of the state of California is in a state of drought---they're all wrong, they're 'drought fanboys,' while only pstarr himself has discovered the true situation unknown to everyone else--that the whole state is "awash in water" with not one bit of drought anywhere to be seen.

At least we know clearly where he stands on that issue now, so we can judge his pronouncement on that, and much else, in that light.

Just so that everyone understands what NOAA's (and pretty much everyone else's) assessment of the actual situation is:

dohboi wrote:I'll just note that it seems to be only pstarr and jk who regularly use the term 'fanboys'

is one the sockpuppet of the other???

KJ? Not a all. We had some bitter arguments when he first arrived here. KJ wanted to sacrifice the Sacramento River for irrigation farm water, said the delta smelt was not worth saving. I pointed out it is an indicator species, a measure of potable healthy water.

That drought map certainly explains the die-off of trees in California's pre-eminent national parks, the two largest, Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks, are exactly located in the deep brown zone. So, while most of the state is covered for water resources (because they pipe it in), the national parks are changing into a semi desert environment (my guess). This winter so far looks good for rain, not great, but with high temperatures, maybe, it is not enough.

When i lived in Phoenix, we might have 2-3 dust storms a year - now it's 15-20/year. And there's 3 or 4 (non-linear) degrees ahead of us

It is no wonder when soil is destroyed or better the soil life, that you get more and more sandstorms. Even in the north of Germany where we had no drought since a lot of years there was a dust storm in April 2011, blowing over a highway resulting in 8 deaths and 27 injured persons as well as 17 burnt vehicles.

Sandstorm kills eight in German pile-upA total of 110 people in 80 cars and three trucks involved in crash on motorway near Baltic Sea after sandstorm

Why?Because the soil was completely bare, with no protection layer of plants or mulch. After a few days with no rain the wind could easily blow away the topmost layer of very light particles on the soil.Bacteria and fungis are acting like living glue (Glomalin), holding the soil particles together and creating pores for getting water and air in. When there is no live in the soil there will be no glue but there will be dust storms.

Two experts expaining it a lot better (Gabe Brown of North Dakota and Dr. Elaine Ingham from Soilfoodweb Inc.):