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Archive for April 2017

The ocean wasn’t doing much as Anzac Day dawned. There was high overcast early and it’s expected to rain by this afternoon. Wind was light early but we’re in for a fair amount of it later from the NW by this evening. Swell was coming from the east and was about a metre at 10 seconds – which wasn’t doing anything much for Dee Why as the pictures show. The Bureau says it should keep coming from that direction, but to pick up a little. Tomorrow the Bureau has hoisted a gale warning for NW to SW wind and combined south and east swell which are expected to lead to “large and powerful surf conditions” and then on Thursday the intensity jumps significantly as the swell goes from 2-3 m to 3-5 metres with 25-35kts of SW wind. Friday should see the swell dropping back into the 2 metre range. Beyond that it basically looks as though we should have waves of some sort into early next week. Today’s tides saw a high of 1.7 metres at 0700 and low will come along at 1315. Have a reflective Anzac Day everyone.

Only a faint hint of a bump at No Mans 0735

Overcast skies and micro on Anzac Day morning

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. The high is expected to weaken and move east as a cold front approaches from the southwest. Winds will shift northerly and increase today, before the front brings a gusty west to southwesterly change during Wednesday. In the wake of this system, a low pressure system may develop over the Tasman Sea, bringing strong to gale force winds to parts of the New South Wales coast. Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds Northerly 15 to 25 knots tending northwesterly 20 to 25 knots in the evening. Seas 1 to 2 metres. Swell Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning. Weather Partly cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during this afternoon and evening. Wednesday 26 April Gale Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast Winds Northwesterly 20 to 25 knots turning west to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the morning and early afternoon. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the late afternoon. Seas 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres around midday. 1st Swell Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres later in the evening. 2nd Swell Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning. Weather Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. Caution Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing. Thursday 27 April Winds Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots. Seas 2 to 4 metres. Swell Southerly 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 5 metres during the morning. Weather Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. Caution Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.

A beautiful almost still morning as the day started in Dee Why. Only one thing was missing, as you can see from the piccie.

For the record, the MHL buoy was detecting a metre of 11-sec SSE at 0600, so in theory there could be a knee to waist high bump at magnet banks. Tide was a 1.7m high at 0615 and will be low again in 1235.

From the shape of the forecasts models, today’s the low point for swell energy and from tomorrow we should see the numbers improve slightly and then to notch up a bit more on Wednesday before really ramping Thursday (as in hitting 3+ metres potentially in the afternoon).

So enjoy the sunny weather, we have rain tomorrow and beyond that, surf prospects beckon…

Nice morning to take the SUP for a cruise

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the northern New South Wales coast. The high is expected to weaken during Monday and move east as a cold front approaches from the southwest. Wind will shift northerly and increase later today and Tuesday, before the front brings a gusty west to southwesterly change during Wednesday. In the wake of this system, a low pressure system may develop over the Tasman Sea, bringing strong to gale force winds to parts of the New South Wales coast. Forecast for Monday until midnight Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late evening. Seas Around 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather 40% chance of showers this morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Tuesday 25 April Winds Northerly 15 to 20 knots turning northwesterly in the evening. Winds reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the late evening. Seas 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore. Swell Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres. Weather Partly cloudy. 90% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore in the afternoon and evening. Wednesday 26 April Winds Northwesterly 20 to 25 knots turning westerly 30 to 35 knots during the morning. Seas 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the afternoon. 1st Swell Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres during the evening. 2nd Swell Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the morning. Weather Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. Please be aware Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. Nearby Coastal Waters

Hello Friends, A warm and sunny Sunday morning sees only knee and a bit high waves at Dee Why as of 0800. Wind was WSW and light, while the MHL buoy was picking up a metre of 7-sec SE wind bump. Tide was high at 0525 and is now dropping to a low at 1150. Wind should be light this morning before picking up a touch and swinging to the S-SE. Outlook is for tomorrow to be about the same size again but there seems to be a possibility of a little bump on Anzac Day. Happily from Wednesday onward is looking increasingly hopeful for good to very good conditions. Some models are showing the 2-3m SSE energy and mainly SW wind sticking around through to Tuesday – and beyond! Have a great day one and all.

Looking little at No Mans 0800

Catchable knee high waves at 0800

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge to the north coast. The high will slowly move east over the next few days, directing generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast, apart from a brief and weak southerly change along the southern half of the coast today. Winds will shift stronger southwesterly during Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. Forecast for Sunday until midnight Winds North to northwesterly about 10 knots becoming south to southeasterly in the afternoon day then becoming north to northeasterly at night. Seas Below 0.5 metres, increasing to below 1 metre offshore. Swell Easterly below 1 metre. Weather Mostly sunny. 40% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore during the morning and afternoon. Monday 24 April Winds Variable below 10 knots becoming north to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the early afternoon. Seas Below 0.5 metres, increasing to around 1 metre by early evening. Swell Easterly below 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower in the morning. Tuesday 25 April Winds Northerly 15 to 20 knots tending northwesterly during the evening. Seas Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore. Swell Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres. Weather Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.

Light NNW wind before 0700 under high overcast skies. Waist and a bit high glassy bumps at magnet peaks from Dee Why to Longy and from south Narrabeen to Northy. Windswell 1.3 metres and coming mainly from the SE with a choppy and gutless period of about 6 seconds. As a consequence waves were pretty slow for the most part. Tide was high at 0430 and will be low at 1110. By then the forecast says we can expect the NEr to have kicked in – which will reduce surf options substantially. The marginal to tiny settings look likely to persist until around Wednesday when some of the models show us getting a pulse of metre plus 10-11 sec east. Thursday and Friday are again looking hopeful with a 2-3 metre straight south coming together (in the most hopeful scenarios) with cool but nice weather and SW wind. If the predictions come to pass, we could see solid south to SSE swell through to next Monday. Whoo hoo! So get out there for a stay in shape paddle over the next few days, ’cause it just might be interesting later

Longy brief peak

Whiterock chaotic looking

Dee Why at 0645

Lugga excitement

Near the pole

Northy had a little peak or two

Far north Collaroy empty

Sydney Coastal Waters Forecast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking No warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Saturday 22 April 2017. Weather Situation A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea for the next several days, directing generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A brief and weak southerly change is expected along the southern half of the coast on Sunday, after which winds will return to northeasterly on Monday. Forecast for Saturday until midnight Winds North to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the morning and early afternoon. Winds becoming variable about 10 knots in the late afternoon. Seas 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to 1 metre during the afternoon, then decreasing below 1 metre by early evening. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Cloudy. 70% chance of showers. Sunday 23 April Winds Variable about 10 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers offshore, 20% chance elsewhere. Monday 24 April Winds Variable below 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon then tending northerly during the evening. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. Please be aware Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. Nearby Coastal Waters

This forecast is also available via scheduled broadcasts on marine radio. Latest Coastal Observations Tide Predictions The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:05 pm EST Saturday. Product I

Another beautiful morning in Sydney with little knee and a bit waves trickling in from the south at 0730. The MHL buoy was picking up a metre of 11-sec stuff from 178 degrees. It was too small for the point to produce anything, so you’re confined to the magnet peaks at south exposures. Tide’s low at 1020 and will be back to high at 1630. Wind will be light for a little longer but by lunch it should be NE at 15-20 kts, which will obviously have consequences for the quality. As for the outlook, well, may I direct you to the Goat’s latest remarks… Have a great Friday everyone!

Little lines at 0710

Sets in the waist high range

Lone SUP’r on the point

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea for the next several days, directing generally east to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. A brief and weak southerly change is expected along the southern half of the coast on Sunday. Forecast for Friday until midnight Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 knots in the early afternoon. Seas Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres by early evening. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. Saturday 22 April Winds Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots tending northerly 15 to 20 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 1.5 metres. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Cloudy. 70% chance of showers offshore, 40% chance elsewhere. Sunday 23 April Winds Northerly 10 to 15 knots becoming northeasterly below 10 knots during the day. Seas Around 1 metre, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. Please be aware Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. Nearby Coastal Waters

Swell has cogged down again overnight and as of 0600 the MHL buoy was showing 1.3 metres of 12-sec SSE swell. Only a handful of people in the water on a glassy Thursday morning at Dee Why. Sets into the chest high range were turning up every now and then, but it looked pretty quiet between them. Wind was light from the WNW at 0740 and should stay variable this morning before settling into the NE at 10-15kts. Tide’s low at 0920 and back to a 1.25m high at 1530. The Goat should roll out his weekly analysis of the prospects later today, so I’ll be interested if he’s seeing the same stretch of marginal wave sizes through the front half of the week that I am… Have a great Thursday everyone!

Waist to chest at 0720

Bomb set at the point

Set wave up the beach toward No Mans

Veil of murk hanging over the city streets this morning

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea for the next several days, directing generally southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Forecast for Thursday until midnight Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the middle of the day. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly below 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers this morning. Friday 21 April Winds Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly below 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. Saturday 22 April Winds Northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas Around 1 metre. Swell Easterly below 1 metre. Weather Cloudy. 80% chance of showers.

Conditions at Dee Why were not nearly as attractive as they’ve been for most of the last week. Surface is choppy and although the MHL buoy is showing only a slight decrease from yesterday, the average wave looks to be about half the size, ie about waist high on the typical catchable one at the point. For the record the at 0600 it was 1.3 metres from the SE at close to 13 seconds. Wind was SSW 4-8 kts at 0800. It’s supposed to go SE-E 10 kts later. Tide is low at 0820 and will then run into a 1.2m high at 1420. The models remain dour about our prospects from now until late in the weekend at the earliest. It could be that we’re scratching around for scraps for another week or so. Ah well, we’ve had an exceptional run of surf, so no complaints on that score. Have yourself a top old Wednesday and go well with your plans.

Something small for the keen at 0745

Sets around the waist high mark

Another little lumpy one burbles in

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea through the week, directing generally southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Forecast for Wednesday until midnight Winds East to southeasterly about 10 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. Thursday 20 April Winds Northeasterly about 10 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. Friday 21 April Winds Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers.

In line with expectations, it’s a bit smaller again this morning, but there are still shoulder high wave faces on sets at Dee Why. Conditions early were clean and the MHL buoy was showing 1.4m of 13 second SE swell. Tide was low at 0720 and is coming into a 1.2m high at 1315. The forecast models continue to project waves around this intensity until the weekend. After that it seems we’re in for short period wind bump through next week. So, as I said yesterday, hop in now to enjoy the energy because this time next week could be flat most places. Have yourself a top old Tuesday!

Another wave at the point 0720

Point

The breach still producing waves

Cruising at the point

Weather Situation A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the New South Wales coast. The high is expected to remain slow-moving over the Tasman Sea through the week, directing generally southeast to northeasterly winds along the New South Wales coast. Forecast for Tuesday until midnight Winds East to southeasterly about 10 knots. Seas Below 1 metre. 1st Swell South to southeasterly around 1 metre. 2nd Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. Wednesday 19 April Winds Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming variable about 10 knots in the middle of the day. Seas Below 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers. Thursday 20 April Winds East to northeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas Around 1 metre. Swell Easterly around 1 metre. Weather Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower.