Thanks for the clarification. So now that Porcello is a sandwich, irrevocably, do you think the Sox got a steal?
No, but really, talk me through the thought process here. Gonna lock him up till he's 30? We have faith in our GB gameplan? We have to spend the money or the Nation will start asking questions?(Dylan from CT)

I answered some of this in the first question, but I think ultimately they're paying for age. He's so young and that's going to command some serious coin, but I question whether the typical trappings of youth apply to a guy who's thrown 1073 innings already. Is he more likely to reinvent himself than another pitcher? I don't think so, but I also can't be sure.

I get that putting him in front of a good defense is going to help him a bunch, but I'd be concerned about putting that much money into a guy who misses that few bats, no matter the defense or GB rate, on some level. I do think part of it is that there's just so much money and not that many guys to spend it on, plus bulk innings are worth a lot. I really believe in that last point.

All that being said though, I don't think Rick Porcello is the guy to spend it on. Next year's SP FA class is absolutely monstrous, and there's legitimate ceiling there that I'd rather pay for. I get there's comfort in Porcello, but he offers a lot more downside (sub-100 ERA+) than upside to me, and they paid a bunch for that. (Craig Goldstein)

Thoughts on the Rick Porcello extension? Seems to be a lot of negative opinions out there, but I think it was a fine deal for Boston to make. If he doesn't improve, it's a slight overpay which they can afford. If he does (and he's only 26 and playing in front of a better defense), could be a nice deal. (Shawn from CT)

I like the decision to extend him, but I think that $20M per year is a drastic overpay. Even acknowledging that the team is buying out free agent years, I don't see Porcello as being worth anything close to $20M per year from 2016-19. (Doug Thorburn)

I'll take side two, but I don't want to set a precedent for answering fantasy questions. We have an awesome staff who is more than happy to take those. Use the bat signal. A lot. Seriously, send them 10 questions a day, they'll love it. (Jordan Gorosh)

Rick Porcello's ERA dropped a full point even though he was striking out 20% fewer batters. Help me make sense of this.(John from Chicago)

If you look at FIP you'd say he got lucky last season as his FIP in 2013 was 3.53 and in 2014 it was 3.67. He struck out fewer guys but he also walked fewer. He's a very defense-dependent guy given his GB rate and lack of Ks so pitching in Detroit wasn't an ideal set up for him. Boston should be better, but I'm not sure he's much better than he was last season. A three win pitcher is probably about right for him unless his K rate goes way up, which at this point seems unlikely. (Matthew Kory)

I am having a tough time reading Rick Porcello's year. On one hand he is only 26 and coming off big improvements in ERA and ERA+. On the other hand, he has had six full seasons where he is averaging 5.5 k/9. Was 2014 real improvement or an outlier, and should we expect a league average pitcher going forward or for him to build on those improvements?(John from Chicago)

I think there is some legitimacy to the improvement, John, but don't see Porcello ever emerging as a frontline arm. He's a very solid pitcher in spite of the low strikeout rate, and I'd expect around a 3.75 ERA, splitting the difference between his past two years, but leaning toward 2014 as the Tigers continue to improve defensively with the addition of Gose. He's better than league average (which I'd put around a fourth starter), and more of a middle-to-low-end no. 3 starter for me. (Daniel Rathman)

What's your take on Rick Porcello's season? Is he a top 20 pitcher going forward? Is the low ERA still likely with less than 6 k/9?(Perry from Detroit)

Top 20, no. But he's been such a lightning rod of criticism in the Tigers community for Not Being Justin Verlander, and now he had the year Verlander wished he'd had. It all fell into place and jeez he'll still be just 26 next year. I think he can get better. (Matt Sussman)

What kind of prospect package would a pitcher like Rick Porcello net the tigers in a trade today?(Rick from Detroit)

I've been driving the train that says Porcello is criminally underrated by Tigers fans for the last few years. He's not flashy and he has not reached the lofty expectations established for him during his minor league career, but he is a quality arm that logs plenty of innings and typically performs to a roughly league average level. That is an incredibly valuable asset.

That said, that asset is incredibly valuable to the team that posseses him, not necessarily on the trade market at mid-season. I think the Tigers could get a solid package for him, but nothing overwhelming and certainly nothing that would necessitate them dropping everything to work out the deal tomorrow. (Mark Anderson)

Do you have a favorite sleeper project who you predict will breakout this year?(Rick from Cleveland)

Really high on AJ Griffin & Rick Porcello. The former has the stuff to curb those HRs and really surge. The latter has star-potential and now an IF defense to turn his elite GB into many outs (Paul Sporer)

I'll rank based on who I like the most, as I'm not sure on the potential % increases in either category: Parker, Nova, Medlen, Gee, Porcello, Richards. I think Parker is the clear #1 in this grouping, and I'm a big fan of Nova in 2014. (Craig Goldstein)

I was lucky enough to hit on all of Ryu, Colon, Porcello, and Kazmir last year. Would you rank them in that order for 2014? (18 team league, points roughly akin to linear weights, wins essentially not important.) (justarobert from Santa Clara)

Hi Justarobert (if that is your real name!)

I would probably rank them Ryu, Colon, Kazmir and Porcello. I know some people are really high on Rick Porcello and point to his 2 horrific outings as killing his stats, but I'm just not a big believer. I think he'll be OK mind you, but I like Scott Kazmir's upside, particularly in that park. Depending on where Bartolo Colon lands, I might even put Kazmir ahead of Colon. (Mike Gianella)

Are there any players who you had seen multiple times and felt you had a great read on either good or bad, then completely surprised you by going in the opposite direction?(petelunchbox from Handsome City)

This happens all the time. It is an unfortunate side effect of the business we are in. I was locked down, convinced Rick Porcello was a future #2 starter. I saw Marcus Stroman repeatedly in college and was convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that he wouldn't last as a starter in the minor leagues. Like I said...it happens a lot, and I'm not ashamed to admit when it does. (Mark Anderson)

Harry,
Would like your take on the upside of Rick Porcello going forward?(vampires from michigan)

mid-rotation guy. I think his improvements in getting more strike outs and ground outs could be lasting. He made a change (more curves, fewer sliders) that may give this year's performance a little more weight than normal, relative to the recent past. If he's not with Detroit, he could fetch something nice in a trade. Think of him like Edwin Jackson, although a very different style. He'll eat a ton of innings, occasionally look awesome, sometimes awful, but mostly alright. (Harry Pavlidis)

That's really tough, especially since we haven't seen the Ks from Cole yet. I'd lean Cole for the upside, park, and league. If he doesn't work out, there'll likely be a Porcello-esque asset available on the wire to replace him. I've always been a Porcello fan and remain a huge one, but Cole has legit #1 upside and while it's unlikely to come this year, it could. (Paul Sporer)

There was a lot of "blah blah blah" about Rick Porcello this spring (out with slider, in with curve, lots of K's, etc.), but the results look pretty familiar to the untrained eye. Has your trained eye had a chance to see him? Any reason for optimism?(Jim H from Sphinx Park, CO)

Lots of Porcello questions. His hype is fueled by his rare combination of youth + experience, along with an overall trend of increasing velocity that inspires optimism. But the velo this season is still short of previously established levels, and the early returns look similar to the past. I am optimistic, but realistically I will have him on my fantasy bench until I see concrete evidence of improvement.

It's hard to say at this point, tweezer, but we seem to get at least a couple of rumors involving Porcello every week. I do think he'll be traded, but could only speculate about the destination. To mention a couple of teams, the Mariners and Padres might make sense. (Daniel Rathman)

Why the hurry to trade Rick Porcello? Wouldn't they be better off keeping him in the 5 hole of the rotation and Smyly in Toledo until the inevitable injury?
Failing that, what is little Ricky worth in prospects? (DetroitDale from Florida (eternal spring training))

I don't see the rush to trade Porcello, personally. I think he's worth more to the Tigers on the roster than he is in trade. If the Tigers are overwhelmed by an offer, then I think it makes sense to move him. Otherwise, it makes sense for the Tigers to hold onto him seeing as they have precious little depth at starting pitcher. (Mark Anderson)

Is Rick Porcello the breakout candidate that his upwardly trending peripherals suggest that he is? And is Detroit really willing to move him for an RP?(Xolo from Sudamerica)

Yes and no. Or at least I desperately the latter is a no. I saw the Porcello/Hanrahan stuff being floated and never really bought it. The Porcello/Bourjos talk is much more viable (and as a Tigers fan, I'd LOVE it).

I'm a big fan of Porcello and think he has has star potential, though not with this infield defense behind him. It just doesn't suit his game so they might as well parlay him for a big return. (Paul Sporer)

Cahill put up some gaudy stats last season, but his peripherals weren't strong. I think he had 118 Ks. How does he become a true front-line starter instead of a guy who performs well because of the stadium he pitches in?(Tom from Madison)

WAYYYY too early to tell. Some pitchers are able to succeed in spite of poorer peripherals. Others aren't. It's easy to think that poor peripherals means he will be less effective next season, but very rarely do people consider that he could improve those peripherals. Rick Porcello hasn't. Maybe Cahill will. (Eric Seidman)

How Concerned should Tigers fans be about Rick Porcello's drop in K's last year? He's probably not the next Justin Vernlander after all, but is he the next Jeremy Bonderman?(DetroitDale from Tallahassee, FL)

He ought to be more durable, but Porcello has to prove he's more than a one-trick pony, otherwise nobody's going to be swinging and missing. A great sinker is a thing of beauty, but if everyone knows it's coming... (Christina Kahrl)

A half decade from today, who's had the better 5 seasons? Zach Greinke, or Rick Porcello?(singledigit from San Diego)

This is the sort of question that might very well come back to haunt someone, especially given the possibility of injury. Right now, though, I'd say Greinke, and it's not particularly close. I'm really worried about Porcello's inability to miss bats, and while the groundballs are nice, he needs to strike more guys out to be much more than a third starter. He struck out more after his stint in the minors last year, but not enough to allay my concerns unless it was the first step of a major trend. (Ken Funck)

By the time they both hit about 32-yrs old....who has had the better career, Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello?(lemppi from Ankeny, IA)

Scherzer. He's already shown that he can strike out major league hitters, and that is the best predictor of future success. There's no doubt that Porcello has crazy upside but he's not getting whiffs yet, and so I have to play the odds and say Scherzer. (Matt Swartz)

Rick Porcello -- can he become a third ace in the Tigers rotation, or does the last two years lower his ceiling somewhat?(Jim Osterberg from Detroit Rock City)

I have to be careful here. I was once assaulted with a barrage of mean-spirited questions when I said that I thought Kershaw would become an ace and Porcello would disappoint about two years ago I think. In short, no, I don't think he will become a third ace. I think he could be a really good #4-type pitcher with his current repertoire and "stuff" but he doesn't strike anyone out, and I haven't seen enough to indicate that is going to change moving forward. This doesn't mean I think he is bad, or that he couldn't become better, but that I still just do not see it yet. The same thing happened with Gavin Floyd, though, who looked a bit lost before turning it on. Maybe Porcello follows a similar path. (Eric Seidman)

I wasn't high on Porcello this year to begin with, though I don't mean he doesn't have a bright future. I just mean that I figured there would be some struggles this year (for reference, when asked about this before, I felt Brett Anderson was much further along in his development). He's going to be great, but I don't think that word applies to 2010.

Scherzer's velocity seems to be down a bit, but it's early so I'm having a hard time getting too worked up about it. I'm sticking with him in my AL-only league (though I may have to deal him for an outfielder given my previously referenced situation. Le sigh). (Marc Normandin)

My last slot in a deep keeper league looks like it's coming down to Dexter Fowler and Rick Porcello. I usually prefer the position player, but Porcello could be special. At the same time, both might have another year or two of development before they really get going. Preference for 2010? Long-term?(Rob from Alaska)

I would normally prefer the position player too, but Porcello's last two months were pretty impressive. I just wish his strikeouts would jump up, but it will happen with time. He could be a beast in the second half of 2010... (Marc Normandin)

Did Porcello start in Minny impress u-I know u think he is chopped liver compared to Brett.(JOESAV from ny)

Let me try and put an end to this. I don't dislike Rick Porcello. At all. There is a definitive middle ground between thinking someone will be a star and thinking someone will be a bust. I personally think Porcello is and will be a very good major league pitcher but I just did not get the same feeling watching him that I did watching Kershaw last year or Anderson this year. That doesn't mean I dislike him. I'm just not as high on him as others and not convinced that he is going to turn into a perennial all star or Cy Young Award candidate. That's it. End of story. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I don't have anything against the guy. (Eric Seidman)

Tigers fan here. Talk me down from the ledge... please?(David from Winston Salem)

I'd love to but I can't do it in good faith. I think it's going to be awfully hard to win in the Metrodome, though I did have a chance to visit with Rick Porcello earlier this year and came away very impressed with the poise and maturity he shows for such a young guy. (John Perrotto)

porcello walks too many? and joba doesn't? you can really make a straight faced arguement that joba is a better pitcher right now? just looked at the numbers, and the 20 year old kid looks better(ct tiger from ct)

Rick Porcello is currently striking out 4.97 batter per nine innings, a rate that Paul Byrd would even laugh at. Walking 2.94 per nine is nice, but not by comparison to the strikeout rates. He has a 56% GB rate meaning he is very dependent on the team's defense. Joba is not in the same boat, and I feel that it is more likely Joba decreases his walks than Porcello increases the whiffs. (Eric Seidman)

Most believe the Tigers need a bat. Does one bat solve enough of their issues? Or does getting a rotation piece help fortify the formula of pitching/defense that has worked so far? Thanks.(lemppi from Ankeny, IA)

That may depend on what they can get from Rick Porcello the rest of the way. Do they have three starters now or two? And is last year's Armando Galarraga anywhere to be found? On the flip side, how much would a healthy Carlos Guillen change the mix? Finally, what do they have to trade? Throw it all in a hat, and I think they'll be pretty quiet. (Joe Sheehan)

Are you in the camp of "Make Joba a reliever" or "Keep him as a starter"? It seems that right now, he's just not making it through five innings with out a lot of unnecessary difficulty.(Tim from Tampa, FL)

Then again, he's leading Yankees starters in ERA. There is some difficulty right now, but until he shows he can't worth through it, he's a starter. Besides, with Hughes in the majors, Wang wounded, and Ian Kennedy having an aneurysm cut out of his armpit, who should take over for Joba? Red Ruffing?

Sometimes, just to tease me, when I say to my wife, "Matt Scherzer had a good start tonight" or Rick Porcello, or Chad Billingsley, she'll say, "But he'd be more valuable in the bullpen." I have a great wife. Only people who truly love you care enough to give you that kind of grief. (Steven Goldman)

Question 1: In conclusion, Kevin, which system more closely resembles the Great dust bowl: The Astros or the Tigers?
Question 2: What has Engel Beltre shown to merit inclusion on the list that you haven't seen from Martin Perez?
(Or from Dallas)

So which prospect SPs take the place of Price, Kershaw, etc. as the next big thing?(Jake from Dallas)

Well, I don't think we're done seeing if those guys get over the hump yet, particularly considering Price has just 14 innings under his belt.

IANKG (I am not Kevin Goldstein) but looking over his Top 100 update from earlier in the summer, Rick Porcello (Detroit), Neftali Feliz (Texas) and Chris Tillman (Baltimore) look like the highly-ranked guys who moved up without losing eligibility. Beyond that, I'm out of my league. (Jay Jaffe)

Without even throwing a pitch, you had both David Price and Rick Porcello in the top 12 prospects in all of baseball. Do you see any of this years' draft picks making it into the top 10 in similar fashion?(ericmilburn from San Francisco)

Kevin,
Based on your comments in today's Monday Ten Pack, does your gut tell you that Rick Porcello will outrank David Price on next year's prospect list? (DB from New York)

Not especially. I mean it wouldn't shock me if he did, but you're looking at the opinion of one scout, and you are talking about two guys who are among the elite arms in the minors, so it's hard to see why one of them is going to suddenly drop. (Kevin Goldstein)

BP Roundtables

Baltimore eyed young pitching all along, but in the end, they decided that the top guys weren't worth the coin as they take Matt Hobgood, A guy most people saw as a mid-to-late first round kind of talent.

If you see the video on MLB, you can see why conditioning could end up an issue. MLB people talking about how he moved up, but there's only one reason -- when teams called him, he didn't mention the name Rick Porcello. (Kevin Goldstein)

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

Rick Porcello has thrown 19,015 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2015, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, the MLB Postseason and Spring Training. In 2015, he has relied primarily on his Sinker (91mph) and Fourseam Fastball (93mph), also mixing in a Curve (76mph), Cutter (88mph) and Change (83mph). He also rarely throws a Slider (84mph).