Trennert: Unemployment Rate May Fall Below 9 Percent

The jobless rate in the U.S. may drop below 9 percent over the next year as employers regain confidence in the White House’s policies, said Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners.

“If they get some sort of sense that they know what the rules of the game are, I think that will result in a much better employment picture,” New York-based Trennert said in an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “There’s a very good chance you get a cyclical improvement in the unemployment rate from 9.8 to something with an eight handle in the next year.”

The unemployment rate jumped to 9.8 percent in November from 9.6 percent the previous month, the Labor Department reported on Dec. 3, as employers added fewer jobs than forecast. It’s at the highest level since April. The rate has held above 9.5 percent for 16 straight months.

President Barack Obama said Dec. 6 he would accept a compromise with congressional Republicans that would keep current tax rates for high-income taxpayers in place for two more years in exchange for extending federal unemployment insurance for the long-term jobless and cutting the payroll tax by $120 billion for one year.

The economy is “on the precipice” of a jobs recovery, said Trennert, who is also managing partner of the research firm.

“Up until a week ago, people thought it was virtually impossible for President Obama to move to the center,” Trennert said. “If President Obama gets the sense that this is getting him through the night, where this actually works, then he may surprise everyone.”

The jobless rate in the U.S. may drop below 9 percent over the next year as employers regain confidence in the White House s policies, said Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. If they get some sort of sense that they know what the...