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Fantasy winners, losers based on the 2013 NFL schedule

When we review the upcoming schedule strengths at TheHuddle.com, we consider weighted averages of what 32 defenses allowed in both home and away games. It is simply the most refined schedule tool ever.

Most fantasy team owners enter their draft ready to select a team based on last year. But no year ever repeats and besides changes in coaches and personnel, there is another reason players will differ year to year – the NFL schedule. They simply do not play the same schedule every year and the opponents they will face are themselves changing year to year.

When we review the upcoming schedule strengths at TheHuddle.com, we consider weighted averages of what 32 defenses allowed in home and away games last year (64 "venues"). It is the most refined schedule tool ever. Based on how many times players will be facing the easiest 20 venues or the hardest 20 venues, consider who is has the easy road or who faces the toughest season.

The NFL continues to evolve into a pass-heavy league where yards and scores most often come through the air. You're only going to start one – why not match talent with schedule advantage?

UP

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - He helped Dez Bryant and Jason Witten end up as elite in their positions while rolling up a career best 4.903 passing yards. Now Romo faces just one bad defensive matchup and seven times gets the easier schedule. Head coach Jason Garrett says he wants to run more but installing a new defense means the Cowboys will not only need to throw like 2012, but with even more success.

Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs - He was never much in San Francisco learning a new offense every year. But now the former No. 1 overall pick plays for head coach Andy Reid in a scheme best suited for his talents. Add in that he only faces two bad matchups all year and Smith is destined to surprise.

DOWN

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – There are already reasons for concern about Big Ben who dropped to 3,265 passing yards in 2012 and required offseason surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He lost Mike Wallace and Heath Miller is out indefinitely. Throw in a schedule with almost half the games played in the toughest of venues and it looks like another down year.

No position is as sensitive to matchups as running backs. They are consistently the most predictable and most heavily used offensive skill player. Grabbing one with an easy schedule offers championship-chasing consistency.

UP

Chris Ivory, New York Jets – Ivory was really no better than fourth-string in New Orleans. But a trade to the Jets suddenly propels him into a starting role with almost no competition for carries behind him. Add in the easiest schedule of any rusher in the NFL and he's a lock to be a nice value pick near the middle of your draft.

Montee Ball, Denver Broncos – The rookie still needs to cement his role as primary back but that will happen. He'll end up toting the rock for a high-powered offense that will keep defenders mostly back in pass coverage. He doesn't get many great rushing matchups but he'll also only face two venues against toughest defenses. He's another deeper-in-the-draft player likely to offer big value.

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills – After posting 1,703 total yards and eight touchdowns last year, Spiller has finally met expectations and become the primary back the Bills spent the ninth overall pick to get. New head coach Doug Marrone wants Spiller to be an every down player who will be spending nearly half his games going against the easiest venues.

DOWN

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – New head coach Chip Kelly ushers in a much anticipated new offense and McCoy will be a primary beneficiary of the new scheme. But he'll have to get up to speed against the worst schedule for rushers in the NFL – only once facing a soft matchup and suffering against the best seven times.

Andre Brown/David Wilson, New York Giants – While Ahmad Bradshaw's departure opens the door for other backs, the effects are less certain. Wilson and Brown will split carries in some varying ratio and they'll be facing only one soft match-up from 2012. Stack up six bad games and it gets even riskier to rely on as a fantasy starter.

The schedule is least sensitive to receivers because their use is dictated heavily by game situation and play-calling. But that doesn't mean extremes in schedule advantage should be ignored.

UP

Demaryius Thomas/Wes Welker, Broncos – While these two must now share the glory that is Peyton Manning, all is not lost. Thomas and Eric Decker combined for 2,498 yards and 23 touchdowns last year and the Broncos are treated to one of the lightest schedules in the league. After week one, the new dynamic duo will never again face a top defense from last year.

Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – After an uncharacteristically bad season, the arrows point up for Bowe. He gets a new offensive scheme directed by head coach Andy Reid, he has little competition for passes and he is the only wideout facing bottom-20 venues in exactly half his matchups.

Randall Cobb/Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers – Now that Greg Jennings is gone, Cobb and Nelson stand to benefit from their quarterback and schedule. Not only do they face six good matchups this year, their two bad venues are over by Week 3. And with Aaron Rodgers there, even at San Francisco and at Cincinnati may not be that bad.

DOWN

Stevie Johnson, Bills – He already has to contend with a new offense and either Kevin Kolb or rookie EJ Manuel under center. But he'll also remain the main concern of every secondary, including the eight times he'll be at a bad venue. Opening against the Patriots is favorable, but he'll suffer through seven bad matchups before reaching the next good one.

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins – Changing teams and becoming the clear No. 1 wideout usually means positive changes for a player but that may not work out so for Wallace. The Dolphins ranked no better than 28th in any fantasy passing category and Ryan Tannehill threw for 12 TDs. Wallace will have to learn a new offense and he face three good matchups all year.

David Dorey writes for TheHuddle.com. a USA TODAY Sports Media Group property