"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." ~ George Soros

Monthly Archives: October 2013

It’s been a while since I last posted in this blog. Actually, the reason I stopped blogging was because early this year, trading groups were becoming too crowded, noisy, and filled with shit. Everyday you’ll see people posting about each tick up or down, like babies. You’ll see people bragging and shit with “I told you so” posts. Euphoria was becoming too widespread and somehow I knew I just had to fade for a while and let these babies have a taste of their own poison. Funny thing was, prior to the market correction those who were super complacent and arrogant on their trades were no where to be found. I was asking my friend whether this certain market guru warned him of a possible correction, and he told me that he wasn’t getting that much updates from the guru anymore. Also, since there were lots of mushrooms sprouting, I guess people have too much to read that’s why I decided to stop for a while and focus on things that I can actually capitalize on.

After the 20%+ correction, things tamed down a bit, at least the quality of the discussions in the forums were now more interesting, rather than useless cheering/hyping. Now what’s funny is that people seem to take trading too seriously that they feel like they are part of 2 opposing factions, the BULLS and the BEARS. It’s very entertaining seeing people hit on each other whenever they see someone opposing their beliefs. Afterwards, the winner goes back again to the forums posting more “I told you so mother effer” posts. Again nothing wrong with this, haha. Honestly, when I’m really bored I try to meddle and join the fun. At the end of the day though, do you really think that your day-to-day whining, cheering, ego boosting, and other forms of shit do you any good? Even if you prove your point to everyone and look like a genius in the whole internet, sooner or later, a fund will go against your trade and you will get eaten up. It’s useless trying to bash people just because they oppose your views, because almost all the people you see lurking in FB CAN’T do SHIT on your trade. Again, no offense, but I think that lurkers, particularly beginners, are better off doing something that can help them develop effective trading strategies, rather than wasting time in FB, trying to look good to fellow traders.

I’d like to say Kudos to new characters that have sprouted that actually do the public good by sharing their sincere insights for free, there’s a number of them around if only you know where to look. 🙂

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I am neutral at this point, since we’re in the middle of crap and the direction of the market would actually depend on whatever policy/deal USA comes up with. What’s nice to see is that even with all the noise, you can still play the market selectively, recent run-ups, MARC, EMP, GSMI, PGOLD, COSCO. that’s where the fun is, in stock picking. In the next few months though, I would rather be careful than complacent, though things may seem bullish and all, you have to understand what’s superficial and what’s not, always look at the core of what’s really happening out there. Remember, in a bear market, there will always be rallies that would be enough to convince the crowd that everything’s fine… then they wake up crying back to their momma. That’s just my personal bias, I’d still trade the markets, of-course, but this time around, I’d be looking at opportunities where I can hedge and go short. (FX, commodities, index futures, etc)