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Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Wednesday, 8 October 2008

In light of the developments today, Sakmongkol has this to say. His analyses may have gone off tangent. But that’s OK, you win some, you lose some. Anyway, sakmongkol has already said, if his predictions turn the other way, he can always resort to the politician’s shuffle.

Be that as it may, things are only just a little clear for Najib. He is not out of the woods yet. 5 months is a long time. Pak Lah or perhaps, more so his supporters, are in a vengeful mood. Pak Lah will play the neutral statesman but his people will go on the rampage. Najib will have his hands full in the months to come and must be prepared for a gruelling fight.

Pak lah has decided to go and Najib moves up. Tengku Razaleigh will still contest and still have an above average chance to lead UMNO. Yesterday in front of thousands of his supporters in Taman Guru Kuantan, TRH said he will still offer UMNO his leadership even if Najib is given the leeway by Pak Lah. His reasoning was simple, the post of president becomes vacant in March 2009. It is not Pak Lah’s personal property to be given away anyway.

That sets the stage on which the next phase of UMNO drama unfolds. It will be a contest between TRH and Najib.

Muhyidin will be the playmaker.

He will be courted by both Dato Najib and Tengku Razaleigh. He must ponder the signals from them carefully.

What has Najib done? First his standertenfuhrer( captains) have all rushed to declare they are contesting the deputy presidents post. Sakmongkol has said that in actual fact, It is Najib who speaks through these people. He in fact is saying he wants the number 1 job.

Secondly, his underlings are rushing to spook Muhyiddin. Perhaps it was done at the instigation of Najib’s strategists. That tells Muhyiddin that Najib’s people and by extension Najib himself, are not to be trusted.

Look closely at Zahid’s statements. He must have had signals from Najib or those closest to Najib like JJ. When Zahid says he wants to help Najib who will be the number one, Zahid is implying, those other than him, cannot help Najib or is not compatible with Najib.

Secondly he has said that he can work closely with Najib again implying Muhyiddin cannot will not be able to work closely with Najib and Najib’s people.

Tengku Razaleigh on the other hand has been gentlemanly and therefore more reassuring.

So he has to choose which sides he must take? Can he trust Najib? Will he be more comfortable with TRH?

Muhyidin must understand, that by a turn of fortuitous events, Najib happens to be at the right place at the right time. He has been given the leeway. So it is not on leadership merits that Najib got to claim the post.

Muhyddin stands on the same moral footing as Najib. The convention of collective responsibility translates into shouldering the blame together. When the BN lost in many states and UMNO suffered particularly extensive damage, all in the leadership must bear responsibility. It was wrong for UMNO leaders to gang up and bludgeon Abdullah alone. All are culpable.

That means, Muhydin has as much credibility to offer himself for any posts in UMNO notwithstanding that at the moment, Najib is the deputy president. He must know that Najib is only amenable to the practice of tradition as long as he (Najib) is the principal beneficiary.

Meaning, there is no guarantee that now Najib will be inclined to honour any tradition which is so fluid and ever changing to suit the circumstances. Without as much as a guarantee, Muhyiddin will find himself in dire straits. If he does nothing assertive, he will be hemmed in from all directions by Najib’s people.

Of course, Najib will try to put on a show by appeasing Muhydin. He does this by endorsing Muhyiddin’s ascension as deputy president. But that could just be a red herring. With Najib already exposing some of his intentions, Muhyidin will find it useful to be careful.

The option opened to him then, is to throw his lot with TRH. He will need a more powerful figure to support him and neutralise the jokers. He will discover that TRH has these qualities. Who is TRH? A person who is relatively unblemished and has no excess baggage to carry. Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has declared that he has not excess baggage in obvious aside to Dato Najib.

And should Muhyiddin declare he wants to go for deputy president teaming up with Tengku Razaleigh, he will have another more powerful ally in Tun Mahathir Muhamad.