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Spring story lines fantasy owners will be following

As games get underway in Florida and Arizona, it's time for fantasy owners to begin the information-gathering process. Here are some things to monitor this spring that will impact players' fantasy values.

Although much of what happens in spring training has little bearing on what happens during the regular season, fantasy owners are always looking for even the slightest edge heading into our drafts.

So as games get underway in Florida and Arizona, it's time to begin the information-gathering process. Some interesting things to watch this spring that will help shape player values for the 2014 season.

Players returning from injuries

Most players who've had surgery or are coming off injury-plagued seasons will be eased back into action. How soon they begin playing on a regular basis will be a good indicator of how ready they'll be for opening day.

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp hasn't played a full season since 2011, the year he was fantasy's No. 1 overall player after hitting .324 with 39 home runs, 126 RBI and 40 stolen bases.

He had ankle and shoulder surgery in the offseason, and although the shoulder seems to be fine, Kemp is no lock to be ready for the Dodgers' two-game opening series in Australia in late March. He's a first-round talent if healthy, so it would be encouraging to see him play in a few spring games before the Dodgers head Down Under.

Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez battled a finger injury that cut his 2013 season short. Despite playing 110 games, he hit 26 homers and stole 21 bases. A more pressing concern, however, is an emergency appendectomy he had Jan.10. Recovery can take anywhere from one to two months, so he should be back on the field in plenty of time to get ready for the regular season. His first-round status should be unaffected.

Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado suffered a knee injury in September that required arthroscopic surgery. He is reportedly ahead of his rehab schedule and could be playing in spring games by mid-March. Machado went for a significant discount in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association mixed-league draft last month (Round 10, 120th overall), so use that as an absolute floor as long as he doesn't suffer a setback.

The New York Yankees will be counting on bounce-back seasons from first baseman Mark Teixeira and shortstop Derek Jeter, but fantasy owners should be less optimistic. Teixeira (wrist) and Jeter (ankle) are on the high side of 30, and their injuries affect the most fantasy-relevant aspects of their game. They should arrive at camp close to 100%, but don't expect a return to their previous production levels.

First baseman Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels was shut down in August because of a foot injury, ending his streak of 12 consecutive 30-homer seasons. How much does a 34-year-old Pujols have left in the tank? He no longer is being drafted as an elite first baseman, but he could be a major value pick if he shows his foot is no longer an issue.

Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton has been working on his bunting technique this offseason to help him improve his ability to get on base.(Photo: Frank Victores, USA TODAY Sports)

Billy Hamilton's on-base percentage

There's such a wide range of outcomes for the Cincinnati Reds' 23-year-old rookie center fielder. At one extreme, he's a game-changing stolen base machine who allows his owners to dominate the category from start to finish.

At the other extreme, he struggles to make the transition to being a full-time major leaguer and ends up being nothing more than a pinch-running specialist.

The determining factor will be Hamilton's ability to get on base. And in his case, a walk is most definitely as good as a hit. In the lower levels of the minor leagues, he did just that. The result was a record 155 steals in 2012 between ClassA and AA.

Last season at Class-AAA Louisville, Hamilton found things a bit more difficult — hitting .256 with a .308 on-base percentage.

But the attraction for fantasy owners came in his 13-game cameo with the Reds in September. Hamilton was successful in 13 of his 14 stolen base attempts and scored nine runs in limited playing time. That kind of production has fantasy owners dreaming of steal numbers not seen since the glory days of Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman and Tim Raines in the 1980s.

As a result, you can mark this down right now: Hamilton will be the most traded player in fantasy leagues this season — and it won't even be close.

If he's a total bust and his fantasy owners are ready to cut their losses, there will always be another steals-deficient owner willing to take a chance on a late-season rebound.

If he runs wild and his owners lock up first place in the stolen base category by mid-August, they'll be able to trade away the rest of his production to another team in the league that benefits them the most in the standings.

Hamilton will be overdrafted in almost every league. And that's not necessarily a bad thing, because of the exceptional power he will give his owners to manipulate the stolen base category. There's simply no way to measure that extra value in Roto dollars, so even though Hamilton could earn $20 on his stats alone, he'll be worth considerably more — through not only the player(s) he'll bring back in a trade, but also the ability he'll give his owners to affect the overall standings.

The latest Japanese import

After posting an incredible 24-0 record and 1.27 ERA and leading the Rakuten Golden Eagles to the Japan Series title last year, 25-year-old right-hander Masahiro Tanaka will immediately be thrust onto the game's biggest stage with the Yankees.

The easy comparison would be with countryman Yu Darvish, but the two aren't necessarily that similar. Darvish led the majors in strikeouts last season with 277 but occasionally got in trouble when he walked too many hitters. Tanaka is at the other end of the spectrum with an elite walk rate (1.4 per nine innings) and a strikeout rate (7.8 per nine innings) that would have ranked him 34th in the majors among last season's qualified starters. That puts him roughly equivalent to Chris Tillman, Matt Cain and James Shields.

Double-digit wins seem like a fairly good bet as long as Tanaka stays healthy. His 1.44 ERA the last three seasons in Japan was aided by unusually high strand rates (87%, 82% and 88% last season) that are unlikely to continue. An ERA in the low to mid-3.00s seems more plausible.

Tanaka's ADP surely will rise in the weeks leading into spring training as a member of the Yankees. I have him conservatively ranked No. 39 among starting pitchers and No.156 overall. That slots him as a No.3 starter in most mixed leagues but still leaves room for upward mobility before draft day if he performs well in spring training. However, don't look for him to pitch against any of the Yankees' American League East rivals this spring.

We'll have to wait for the regular season for that.

The latest Cuban import

Over the last two seasons, fantasy owners have been treated to the slugging exploits of Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig. This year, the spotlight will shine on Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu.

Signed to a six-year, $70 million contract, Abreu has a history of above-average power. He'll get to put that on display in what has been one of the most hitter-friendly home parks in the majors.

Veteran Paul Konerko will likely ease into a platoon with Adam Dunn at designated hitter, leaving Abreu to man first base on a full-time basis.

With power numbers declining throughout the majors the last several seasons, Abreu's addition to the talent pool could make a significant impact — if he can come close to what he did in Cuba.

Spring training won't be a fair measuring stick because Abreu won't be hitting in major league parks, but his contact rate and fly-ball percentage will at least give us an indication of what kind of ceiling he might have.