January 24, 2017

Center for Family and Demographic Research [Bowling Green State University] Working Paper: “Serial Cohabitation in Young Adulthood: Baby Boomers to Millennials,” by Wendy D. Manning and Kasey J. Eickmeyer (WP2017-01. January 2017, .pdf format, 30p.).

Abstract:

During young adulthood, marriage is delayed and cohabitation is a common union experience (Manning, Brown, and Payne, 2014). One implication of this relationship context is the opportunity for serial cohabitation (multiple cohabiting unions). Drawing on data from the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6 (2002) and continuous 2006-2013 interview cycles, the authors find that among women at risk for serial cohabitation, this experience is increasing with half of Baby Boomers, born between 1960-1964, and three-fifths of Millennials, born 1980-1984, serially cohabiting. The demographic predictors of serial cohabitation have not changed between these two cohorts, suggesting that traditional indicators of disadvantage may not be operating in line with previous research even while serial cohabitors have become more demographically diverse. Relationship characteristics have a stronger influence on the odds of serial cohabitation than demographic predictors among Millennials, highlighting the context of young adulthood that includes uncertainty and high rates of cohabitation.

Delayed parenthood is a central feature of the massive transformation of family and reproduction in rich countries. We analyse the shift of motherhood towards later reproductive ages during the last four decades and review its consequences for children and their mothers in low-fertility countries in Europe, North America, Oceania and East Asia. First we analyse the trends in birth rates at advanced reproductive ages (35+), including trends at very high reproductive ages (50+) and detailing the rapid rise in first and second birth rates at that ages. We show that a relatively high share of childless women and of women with one child aged 35-44 still plan to have a(nother) child in the future. Subsequently, we discuss the limited success rates of assisted reproduction at advanced reproductive ages and its contribution to parenthood at later ages. Next we outline the key drivers of delayed parenthood and its demographic consequences. Finally, we briefly review the consequences of delayed motherhood for pregnancy outcomes, maternal and child health and highlight selected positive consequences of later parenthood for mothers and children. We argue that economic and social rationales for late reproduction clash with the biological and health rationales for having children earlier in life.

This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that have completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s-1980s—especially in Europe, East Asia and North America—and summarises the key findings that are relevant for the countries with a more recent experience of fertility declines towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility would tend to stabilise. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilise or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes remarkable upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFR), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding the diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many of the emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift during the next two to three decades, often depressing their TFRs to very low levels.