Schedule fun: The Warriors are set up for a BIG post-break run (really)

I should’ve caught this a long time ago and… I did not. If somebody else caught this and mentioned it, I missed it and I again apologize for the tardiness. Dumb ol’ me.

A quick flip through the NBA February schedule unearthed this obvious note:

The Warriors, who won their last three before the break, are fairly well set up for a nice extended winning streak, presuming they maintain a moderate level of play, and maybe even a bit of a go-wild run all the way to the end. Maybe.

Here’s why:

-After finishing the pre-All-Star Break play last week by beating Portland, which was finishing a back-to-back, the Warriors pick up play with THREE MORE CONSECUTIVE GAMES against teams on the back half of a back-to-back.

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That’s four games in a row against teams on the back-end of a back-to-back with the Warriors rested. Wow. And there’s more.

Add in a soft home game against Charlotte (not on a BTB but playing its fourth game on a five-game Western road trip) and a March 1 home game against Utah, also on the back end of a BTB, and the Warriors have been handed a potential 5-0 post-Break launch by the NBA schedule-maker.

Then the Warriors head out on a four-game Midwestern road trip that starts with another potential win–at Minnesota–but includes two of their remaining five back-to-back situations.

That could turn into a 6-0 run to start the post-break action, which could turn into some real momentum and which could set the GSWs up for a run at 30 wins by mid-March, with 16 left to play.

Which reminds me just a little of… Hoo man. I’m not even going to say it. Yet. Keep reading.

Man, I should’ve seen this schedule break coming. I did not. (The Warriors could mess it all up, of course, but why be so negative? That’s just not my style.)

The game-by-game breakdown:

-The Warriors open their post-break action on Wednesday by hosting the Lakers, who host Atlanta on Tuesday. (Lakers also had Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol playing in the All-Star Game last night while the Warriors had no such work duty.)

Toughest game of the Warriors’ stretch, not a cake game by any means despite the Lakers’ potential weariness. But a Warriors’ win here would really set them up. I think it’s a 50-50 game or maybe a little better tilted in the Warriors’ favor.

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-Then the Warriors get two more off-days (one of them is the Thursday trade deadline) before playing Saturday at Oracle against Oklahoma City, which plays Friday in Phoenix.

-Then the Warriors travel to LA to play Monday in Staples against the Clippers, who play in Portland on Sunday.

-Then it’s three more off-days before the home game on Friday the 27th against Charlotte, again, not on a BTB but certain to be worn down.

-Then it’s the March 1 home game against Utah, which ALSO is on a BTB after playing a home game the night before against Sacramento. Probably 60-40 in favor of the Warriors, though Boozer and Kirilenko may both be back for that game, who knows. Still making it a 60-40.

I’ve ripped the Warriors and ripped this team and I only now see that this (adding in the 3-0 run pre-break) is an 8-1 run waiting to happen. Maybe 9-0.

With this soft schedule, the GSWs can get themselves up to 24-36 or better pretty quickly. Then the fervor will build. Maybe it ought to build, I dunno. I know it’ll be out there.

Hmm, gee, you talk about being 24-36 in March… what does that remind you of? Of course you remember when the Warriors lost six in a row in late-Feb/early-March of 2007 to fall to 26-35, and Don Nelson said they weren’t going to make the playoffs.

Oops, the Warriors went 16-5 down the backstretch, the other contenders for the 8th seed crumbled, and 42-40 got the GSWs into the postseason for the first time in a million years and they played, um, was it Dallas?

And now… I’m not saying it’s going to happen. In fact, I’m saying it WILL NOT happen. I will repeat that often throughout the rest of this item. However, given the realities of the upcoming schedule, I must allow that something vaguely similar could develop.

And once a team with Stephen Jackson gets hot, we know that normal rules don’t always apply.

Let’s say the Warriors burn off six in a row to start this period–very possible–and they’re at 25-35 with 22 to play.

For any shot at the postseason, they’d have to keep on racing and racing all the way home. In the last stretch of this supposed reality, a 17-5 mark (about the best imaginable) gets them to 42-40, which is a powerful number for this franchise.

This is NOT 2007, however. I can’t believe I had to go through the schedule and figure this out, but again, all credit to the Warriors (and the soft schedule) for making me do it.

-It’s almost certainly going to take more than 42 wins to get into the Western Conference playoffs this year. Might not take 50, like last year, but eight teams in the West already have at least 30 wins, all with 30 or more games left to play.

Even when I go nuts and say the Warriors could get red hot, 42 is about the highest they can go. (34 to 36 is more likely, by the way. Which will not get a playoff spot.)

-The Warriors’ schedule to close 2007 wasn’t exactly easy, but it was much, much easier than the schedule they have to close 2008-’09.

It’d be almost impossible for them to keep on going and finish 23-5 from here to April 15 for these few reasons:

* Back-end of a road BTB @Chicago March 4 (after playing in Minnesota March 3).

* @Detroit March 6.

* Back-end of a road BTB @Milwaukee March 7.

* @Lakers March 19. (Lakers rested.)

* @New Orleans March 22.

* @San Antonio March 24.

* @Dallas March 25, road BTB.

* @Denver March 28.

* @Utah April 11 on the back end of a BTB after hosting Houston April 10.

* Host San Antonio April 13.

You see the Warriors blowing through that list no worse than 5-5? No. Even if they do go 5-5 in these brutal games, that’d still mean they’d have to win EVERY other game on the schedule to get to 42-40.

Nope.

More power to the Warriors for making me check, though. I can’t believe I did this.

On the cynical side, this soft stretch could play out more like Minnesota’s hot streak in January when the T-Wolves took advantage of the easiest stretch you could imagine to go 9-2 in that period after a 6-25 start.

Of course, since then, the schedule toughened back up and the T-Wolves went 1-7 before the break.

The Warriors are more talented team than the T-Wolves, so they should be better prepared against the same schedule rollercoaster experience. We’ll see.

The schedule works that way. The Warriors had it tough early and their injuries did not help them obviously. They also played terribly, but oh well. If Monta Ellis is a tremendous contributor the rest of the way, heck, craziness may ensue.

You can only play who and when the schedule tells you to, of course, so if the Warriors win out through February and beyond, that’s a good thing for them.

Tim Kawakami

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If we come out wednesday and beat the Lakers on ESPN I think our confidence will be close to peaking and who knows….

Chris Cohan

PLAYOFFS BABY!
WE BELIEVE!

BUY THOSE TICKETS, SUCKERS!!!!!

WARRIORS ARE 386-379 ALLTIME WITH DON NELSON AS COACH!

.505 BABY!

WOOT! ELITE! WE’RE BUILDING SOMETHING HERE!

DoctorPOB

Tim,
I just wasted 10 minutes searching through your archives. Here’s what I found.

Back in late Dec/early Jan, when I, along with a few others, said there was way too much gloom and doom on all the blogs (especially yours) given the W’s schedule and injuries, you were saying stuff like this in your January 2 post:
“Ahem: The Warriors are now 10-25, staring dead at a final record somewhere around 24-58.”

Then you said this in your January 27 post:
“Thirty victories, by the end of the season, would be a nice achievement by these star-crossed, NBA-conspired-against, gritty, referee-ruined Warriors.
All sarcasm aside (which is tough for me, I admit), 30 victories would be a very, very nice achievement for the Warriors, given where they’ve been, where they are now, and the obvious roster and chemistry problems.
If the Warriors get to 30 victories, I promise, I’ll give them their due. They will deserve a nod.”

Now you’re up to 34-36 wins, maybe more. Better late than never, but you sure are late.

Also Tim, have you noticed that Monta is playing for the W’s? How about DN hasn’t missed any games yet? How about all the other crap you said that was false?

(I fell into your trap by clicking and posting. You’re welcome.)

WarriorMatt

Tim are you taking your “happy pill” again? Joking aside it’s good to hear something positive out of you.

I expected you to point out the doom and gloom aspect…..Warriors make a run, taking them from a top 5 lottery pick, down to a bottom tier pick and then on the strength of such a strong run Jamal Crawford opts out…..leaving us another half season to figure out the point guard situation…..again.

Chris Cohan

The Warriros are gonna win the Championship!!!! All the WAY~~~ BABY!!! Don Nelsons record is 242-99 in Feb and March .702 winning percentage!!! AND NOW THE 2009 NBA CHAMPIONS!!! THE GSW!!!

Chris Cohan

That’s feltMike and the Merc’s editors in that last one, by the way.

When the Warriors win a championship, I’ll quit posting forever.

NEVER.

playoffbound

TK…. I ripped you a lot this year, but I have to give you credit on this one. You weren’t negative with your analysis–and I agree pretty much with you on how the warriors could end up finishing. It’s only fair that I give you credit. If you could give us a balance of positive and negative–that would be appreciated… Well so far, you’re 90% negative and 10% possitive. Maybe you can create a stellar finish like the Warriors.

EB

Oh really? The Warriors actually look like a viable competitive team now that most of their roster is playing together? And they’re not playing 70% of their games on the road anymore like the first 2.5 months of the season? Fantastic job of putting a positive spin on the rest of the season Tim, but maybe you could’ve just admitted that you shoulda waited til this team played together a little before all the negative, finger pointing posts that accompanied the first 3 months of the season. You know I’m the biggest Warrior apologist out there, but I am realistic that they’re not making the playoffs. However I was aware of that before the season started and will be happy if the last couple months continue and build on the recent good play so they can validly evaluate the team in the off season and trade/draft accordingly.

lobo

too late

Gswfan24

Unrealistic but damn that would be a fun ride, this Dubs team is better though and guess who will start contributing large…Randolph. He’s learning where he can contribute

Years and Counting!!!

Tim, don’t forget:

Elite teams that have things wrapped up by late March / Early April tend to lay off / take it easy / rest alot against teams like the Warriors. So some of the rough games you mentioned like San Antonio and Denver in April are actually more like 50/50 games. It’s too bad the Warriors couldnt finish off the Cavs/Spurs a few weeks ago.

“The games you play in the beginning of the season are worth just as much as the games at the end of the season…” – Lenny Wilkens

Dave

Too little, too late, and still too small. At least play Randolph and Wright to see if either can be a regular and find someone to play at 4 instead of BUIKE!

It was a tough opening schedule. we had no chemistry and lots of injuries and a turdburgler amount of road games. going into the season i though we would be better than last year (before monta was hurt etc). To see them playing better ball shouldn’t be of much surprise. The team is going to be good, we have a lot of talent and depth, all we need is that additional piece (a legit PF) for our team to be legit. bayareascores .com

Tim K. i’m so surprised tat was you saying something that positive about usi choked on my juice great article i still don’t like nor respect you but great article

Mike W.

I see you’re trying to dig yourself out of the cavernous hole you dug for yourself with all the negativity and rumormongering in prior Warriors posts. It will take a lot more than this shiny bit of optimism, which you can’t believe you didn’t see coming.

Many of us did see it coming because we saw the impact of the injuries, the overall roster inexperience and the brutal schedule earlier in the season. That you didn’t see it coming is not about the schedule. It’s about your woeful lack of judgment and understanding about basketball. Period.

Gizzm

Just think if they Warriors were able to win the games against Miami, Sacto (3OT), Cleveland, OKC, and San Antonio. They would be 24-30 and would be 6 games out of the last playoff spot.

the warriors started off the season 5-6. then they went on a huge tailspin that saw them go 5-22. The last 16, they are 9-7.
Too bad they had that 9 game and 5 game losing streak in the middle of that 5-22 stretch.

Chris Cohan

MikeW. wants his own blog.

gmoney

With the recent play of Turiaf, and the improved play of Randolph, the warriors have a team that is deep in both the frontcourt and backcourt. Almost every player on the team has had to step up at one point or another this year due to injuries so they are all ready to play…if the dubs had gotten Maggette and Monta back at the start of december, they probably would have been in contention for the 8 seed right now.

People really get down on the roster, saying its a bunch of mismatched misfits, but thats by design. Nellie has a lot of pieces to work with and a lot of options when devising a game plan. I really look forward to watching the rest of this season. These guys are playing like they know they are going to win and the defensive intensity has been passed on to even the most matador of our defenders. The scrapping had been missing all season.

Finally, and most importantly, th eball movement on offense has been nothing short of sensational. The players are finally starting to get it. The nonstop isolation plays and one pass possessions have given way to balanced ball. Craw, Mags and Jax are no longer worries about getting their shots cause they know that if they are open, their teammates are going to find them. They are playing the game the way its supposed to be played.

OK, start calling me crazy, a homer, Nellie’s boyfriend etc. etc….

Go DUBS

Chris Cohan

This roster is pure crap, dude.
Kids pushed to the back, scrubs pushed to the mediocre.

Azubuike: “great value!”

No hope.

Robert Rowell

Ye$, everyone buy those ticket$ $o that we can in$till hope in our $eason ticket holder$ for next year’$ playoff run. WE BELIEVE PART 2! Courte$y of your Golden $tate Warrior$.

citznkane1

No-no-no. Stop toying with my affections. The W’s will NOT make a run at the play offs. They will play a good game for a while but lose against the Lakers. Period. For this team, the road is a harsh place and continued poor shot selections, lack of rebounding, and poor shoting per centages will continue to plague this team. Oh yes, expect another new body or two to get hurt and miss a lot of games. Yeah, they’ll play some tired teams on the second night of a back to back but this crew doesn’t have a “killer instinct” to put the foot down on these teams/games. Sit back and enjoy some spasms of high scoring basketball as demonstrated recently but don’t expect enough consistentcy for this team to move any higher than “best of the bottom dwellers” (for this year at least). Let stop the “irrational exhuberance” before it gets too out of hand, OK TK?

warrior fan in dallas

You’re right, it WILL NOT happen…but even if they were blistering hot and got to 42 wins, that’s just a high lottery pick and some “feel goods.”

warrior fan in dallas

excuse me…low lottery pick.

Nelsons Balls R Small

Hahaha people actually think that you were being positive about the Warriors for once! Come on Tim, I know you’re just BS’ing. It’s all sarcasm. The Warriors may go on a pretty good run but that will only hurt our lottery chances. Same old story with the warriors! the only team to get to 48 wins and not make the post season! uggggh!