Well, if you had told me we would score 39 points I would have kissed the man.

Recruiting Board Update. Looking back, the 2006 season has paralleled the 2016 season in many ways. Here is a huge divergence. Instead of have long lists of 4 and 5 stars ready to commit. We have this situation:

The most notable change is at linebacker, where Michigan appears to be scrambling. They've got offers out to a number of three stars who are considering teams like Nebraska and Wisconsin and Iowa, certainly not shabby but also not OSU or USC or Florida.

And this:

There is also the matter of Michigan's most recent commitment, Grand Rapids CC OT Mark Huyge, who Michigan snatched from the clutches of directional Michigan schools with an offer.

GARY DANIELSON: I can't summon my mental faculties to give him what he deserves. It would be a string of personal insults bordering on the obscene. So I'll let Braves & Birds say it:

Gary Danielson's performance last night was an absolute disgrace. I understand that he's reputedly a human being who is paid to have opinions, but I've rarely seen an announcer turn the fourth quarter of a football game into a 30-minute advertisement for one school. The fact that Danielson (a) was not recruited by Michigan (and thus went to Purdue) and (b) is working for the one network that exclusively covers the SEC surely had nothing to do with his open rooting for Florida and his subjective, idiotic comparison of the two team's schedules. Regardless of the result of the vote this afternoon, Danielson is going to go down in Michigan lore along with Sean McDonough, who performed a similar role in 1997 during CBS's broadcast of the Nebraska-Tennessee Orange Bowl to facilitate the Huskers picking up part of the national title.

Hockey at the halfway point. The season seems mediocre so far. TJ Hensick and Jack Johnson have been the standouts. It’s likely they will compete for the CCHA title, but not much else beyond that.

Urban Meyer spent the past few weeks campaigning for Florida to get in the title game. He even said that if it was a ‘M’ vs. OSU rematch and ‘M’ won, OSU should go get rings made and still call themselves the champions. Lloyd Carr referred to this as inappropriate and...the media attacked Carr.

December 8 - Friday

Unverified Voracity Needs Shoulders. Post season awards have been given out, and there is an interesting article about Mitch Mustain’s recruitment, and his dealings with ND and Weis.

December 11 - Monday

Brian begins reviews of his preseason predictions. He begins with the bottom of the Big 10. So far, his predictions for Illinois and Northwestern have been accurate.

New commitment is that of Evans, a two-star with no reasonable argument that he might have been overlooked. He doesn't play for an obscure high school (Varina is a state power), he hasn't been injured or forced to play out of position, and he doesn't have offers that belie his ranking. Michigan snatched him away from Temple, Buffalo, and Middle Tennessee.

Here is the 6 team playoff post that Brian referenced in UV a few days ago. I like these two aspects of it:

B. No autobids. As a natural consequence of things there will often be conference champions in the playoff, but as much as I think Wake Forest is a cute story, they would be dead weight in a tightly constrained playoff field like this one.

D. Pick your poison. Seed only as far as you have to, then let teams draft their opponents. In this current format, the #3 team would have a choice between the 5 and 6 teams with the #4 getting the leftovers. The #1 team would get its choice of the first round survivors.

December 13 - Wednesday

Blogger roundtable covering ‘M’ and the Rose Bowl. I didn’t realize that Tressel didn’t cast his vote in the final coaches’ poll.

Recruiting Board Update with a still working James Rogers highlight video. Still lots of confidence that OT Matt Romine will commit in January.

Unverified Voracity Still Talkin’ Playoffs. Renovations are in the works for Crisler, though it is rumored to go from 14,000 to 10,000. Also, an odd mention of ‘M’ history in an article about Miami Dolphin Jason Taylor.

On Sunday, Dolphins' coaches reached still further back into the past and let Taylor be a 1960s University of Michigan style "monster man," lining up wherever he pleased.

When you get thrust into the poker of the NFL for the first time, the stakes are high, the depths dizzying, and the consequences of a gamble that backfires severe. The natural inclination of the n00b is to cower and make the safe play. Most of them never live long enough to get out of the kiddie pool and start making moves.

Unverified Voracity Hires Wisely. Kerry Coombs has been hired from Colerain High School to be on Brian Kelly’s staff at Cincinnati. He has been friendly to Michigan (Corbani Mixon and Mister Simpson), but this is still seen as a good thing because it could help draw players away from OSU.

December 20 - Wednesday

Recruiting Board Update. Not much going on. OL recruiting is looking pretty weak. They’re offering middling recruits none of which will end up committing. For everything else that will go wrong in the coming years, the recruiting was not going well in these last years of Lloyd.

Then there's Swede Carl Hagelin, a late pickup who would normally be Wyzygowski or a MacVoy, a grinder who's stapled to the fourth line or wearing a suit for the duration of his career. Not so for Hagelin. Says Elite Prospects:

Other members of the class are Louie Caporusso, Bryan Hogan, and Matt Rust.

Unverified Voracity Transfers to Delaware. Former ‘M’ QB Jim Harbaugh is now the coach at Stanford. Also, an interesting statistical discussion from I Blog for Cookies about which recent offensive coordinator (Parrish, DeBord, and Malone) had had the most success. The advantage goes to DeBord, but it’s highly likely that that has something to do with him being paired with two of the best defenses in recent memory.

December 22 - Friday

Recruiting update with lots of excitement. CA S Michael Williams is leaning toward ‘M’ over ND, but most importantly, he said he’s being recruited as a nickleback. Also, TX RB Sam McGuffie is very high on Michigan.

A B1G Problem:

The Big Ten has a problem this season. Nobody thinks that the winner of the B1G championship game is the best team in the league. Part of this is because the divisions are unbalanced (which will happen because things change). Another part of this is because there are only 9 games for each team in a 14-team conference. Lastly, non-conference games don’t matter. I know College football is not the NFL, but the NFL uses overall record to determine division champs, and division record as a tie-breaker. Penn State lost to Pitt. 8-4 Pitt. That should matter. Instead, the B1G is all, “Why does it even matter that Penn State is lost in a hole?”

The task of determining the “conference champion” must align with determining the “best team in the conference”. This is especially important in a limited-access playoff. The only reason that people are even giving a second B1G team to get in is because none of the other leagues have two clear top tier teams. The goal of every conference should be to have their conference championship game be a de-facto play-in game for the conference championship. The eye test here says that OSU and Michigan are the best teams in the league. Can we construct a system that generates that result?

A possible solution:

Many of these things can be solved by changing how we determine the conference champion, and re-structuring some things a bit.

Play 10 conference games. Five at home, five on the road. No more uneven home/road splits.

Structure non-conference play. You must play one team from a P5 conference, and one team from a G5 conference. Practically speaking, this means that each team will have 6 or 7 home games in a season (because P5 teams will want a home-and-home). Notre Dame should be considered as a P5 team since they are ACC adjacent. And it isn’t like you can tell me that they are worse than the dregs of the P5, even when they go through down stretches. Still, to hell with Notre Dame .

Use overall record as baseline comparison. All 2-way ties are broken with the head to head result. Three (or more) way ties are broken according to the typical B1G tiebreaking procedure. (1. Record against each other. 2. Record within the Conference. 3. Record within the division. 4. Higher CFP ranking.)

Play division games first, then re-align divisions into a top division (Top 4 teams from East and West) and a bottom division (Bottom 3 teams from East and West). Have teams in the Top Division play all of the other teams in the Top Division that they haven’t played yet.

Conference championship games is a rematch between the #1 and #2 teams in the top division (at a neutral site).

So a season would look like this:

Week 1: P5/G5 opponent

Week 2: G5/P5 opponent

Week 3: East/West division game 1

Week 4: East/West division game 2

Week 5: East/West division game 3

Week 6: East/West division game 4

Week 7: East/West division game 5

Week 8: East/West division game 6

Week 9: Bye week. Realign divisions

Week 10: Top/Bottom division game 1 - Played at West Home field

Week 11: Top/Bottom division game 2 - Played at East Home field

Week 12: Top/Bottom division game 3 - Played at West Home field

Week 13: Top/Bottom division game 4 - Played at East Home field (Bottom division repeats week 10 opponent at other team’s field)

Week 3-8 games are set so that home/away is balanced. Week 10-13 games are set so that home/away is balanced AND teams still know when home/away games are happening (they just don’t know the opponent). Week 9 bye is set so that people can make travel plans for the final 4 weeks. The importance of realignment is that the top teams all skip the dregs of the other division, and still all play each other.

Top Division finale:

At this point, I no longer care about the bottom division. Someone out of the bunch will get bowl elgible. Michigan State could run the table against Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue and get to bowl elgibility too. In any case, by playing the bottom teams in the opposite division, teams that start slow have a shot at getting to a bowl game. On to the top division. Actual games that were played will only show a score. Games not played will be predicted using S&P+

Week 9 (at West)

OSU @ Wisconsin (OSU 30-23 OT)

Michigan @ Iowa (Iowa 14-13)

PSU @ Nebraska (DNP) PSU is 12th, Nebraska is 34th.

Indiana @ Minnesota (DNP) Indiana is 48th, Minnesota is 37th.

Week 10 (at East)

Wisconsin @ Michigan (Michigan 14-7)

Iowa @ PSU (PSU 41-14)

Nebraska @ Indiana (Nebraska 27-22)

Minnesota @ OSU (DNP) Minnesota is 37th, OSU is 3rd.

Week 11 (at West)

OSU @ Nebraska (62-3, Actual game in C-bus)

Michigan @ Minnesota (DNP) Michigan is 2nd, Minnesota is 37th.

PSU @ Wisconsin (PSU 38-31, Actual game in Indianapolis)

Indiana @ Iowa (DNP) Indiana is 48th, Iowa is 20th.

Week 12 (at East)

Wisconsin @ Indiana (DNP) Wisconsin is 16th, Indiana is 48th.

Iowa @ OSU (DNP) Iowa is 20th, OSU is 3rd.

Nebraska @ Michigan (DNP) Nebraska is 34th, Michigan is 2nd.

Minnesota @ PSU (PSU 29-26)

Final Standings

Team

Record

Ohio St.

11-1

Michigan

10-2

Penn St.

10-2

Wisconsin

9-3

Nebraska

9-3

Iowa

8-4

Minnesota

8-4

Indiana

4-8

Michigan wins the tie-breaker based on the head to head result (according to the 2-way tie-breaker procedure the B1G uses). Michigan plays OSU in the B1G championship game. Predict that game at your peril.

Maryland did not play a P5 team. Given their current level, it is safe to assume that they’d be calling the bottom tier of the SEC/ACC to find a “sure” win. ↩

I was motivated to write this diary by a debate I had with a Hokie and a Buckeye. The Buckeye is pretty level headed and talks mild smack before during and after The Game, but actually said this year, “You guys looked good! You didn’t deserve to lose. I’m excited the B1G is back on top of CFB again.” This opinion, and his want to torture our Hokie friend helped him lead the charge for UM’s inclusion in the final 4.

Our Hokie is not level headed, rather he’s more an angry elf when talking CFB. He started the debate like this, “This year will prove above all others what a sham the CFP is…putting the BS UM/OSU game aside, the fact that 2 Big 10 (don’t get me started on how these institutions of higher learning can’t count) teams may make the playoffs and neither one played in their own conf. champ game…is beyond a joke.

The Hokie wants conference champions to represent and thinks there should be 6 births to allow for all P5 champs to participate. He wants objectivity, and is sick of the bias and human foibles that lead to AL vs. LSU rematches. He thinks the NFL system is best, and “it is the order of things.” You can’t win the league if you don’t win your division/conference first.

My point was there’s better criteria to determine the 4 best teams who also deserve to play for a title. It is key to determine the best and most deserving teams. Human guidance is necessary to correct errors in blind faith in formulas (e.g. BCS), and undeserving conference champions (e.g. 2012 WI 8-5/4-4). It is also necessary to keep out the 3 & 4 loss teams “nobody wants to play.”

Who are the best teams?

The humans have spoken. The AP and Coaches mostly agree with the CFP Committee’s top-8 except they push OU into the mix. The Hokie, Buckeye and I summarily dismissed the Big 12 from discussion. Looking at five computer rankings, UM should be 3rd and not 5th, and CO should jump PSU. The computers also suggest the top-5 are pretty tightly bundled and then there’s a gap to WI/PSU/CO. The computers fill that gap with a teams like LSU, USC, UL, AU, and OU. B1G and Pac12 champs will get bumps in the rankings, but I don’t think that will change the computers perspectives on UM’s superiority.

AL

OSU

Clem

WA

UM

WI

PSU

CO

vs CFP top-10

0-0

3-1

0-0

0-0

3-1

0-2

1-1

0-1

vs CFP 11 - 25

3-0

0-0

3-1

2-1

0-0

1-0

0-1

2-1

FEI Rank

1

2

4

5

3

7

13

6

S&P Rank

1

3

4

6

2

10

11

15

FPI Rank

1

2

4

5

3

12

14

13

Sagarin Rnk

1

2

4

5

3

7

14

11

The Power Rank

1

2

4

5

3

11

13

14

Avg Rank

1.0

2.2

4.0

5.2

2.8

9.4

13.0

11.8

FEI SOS

38

23

51

85

10

8

16

25

TeamRankSOS

3

1

9

17

2

5

14

11

Sag SOS

7

15

47

60

33

20

39

23

Avg SOS

16

13

35.7

54

15

11

23

20

Who is most deserving?

Champions

The Hokie says only P5 conference champs should participate. This is silly. 1-loss OSU is out, and 3-loss VT and FL might be in? Even if you can somehow twist your head around that, 2012 8-5 WI would have been ridiculous. This isn’t the NFL. The conference schedules are imbalanced. Divisions are won inequitably. The B1G East crossovers looked like this: UM played 1, 3 & 7. OSU played 1, 2 & 5. PSU played 3, 4 & 7. Some years it might be worse than that. VT did not play 1) Clem, 2) UL, 3) FSU, 4) NC St and 5) WF! VT also opened the season vs. Liberty. The P5 conferences don’t have consistency in number of teams, division alignment, championship games, scheduling rules (NC and in conf), tie breakers, etc..

I have to admit that the inconsistency argument doesn’t apply as much this year since it’s PSU and WI we’re talking about. I do have a hard time with two non-participants jumping over the conference champ. This is especially true for the one with the same overall record and worse conference record. Obviously, this is compelling for B1G and less so for the Pac-12 champs. I could be compelled.

Versus ranked teams and SOS

UM’s 3-1 record vs. top-10 is impressive. PSU’s 2-1 would be impressive as well. SOS after this weekend will be pretty close. WI has the edge in people’s minds due to “ranked at the time” nonsense, and an already better computer SOS. But close losses don’t mean as much and they’d need to pummel PSU IMHO to come close in this category. I'm hoping for an ugly "no one wants to win this game" BTCG.

Head-to-Head

Of course, the conference champ thing and the close SOS would be easier to argue for if UM hadn’t smashed all three wanna be contenders. They more than passed the eye test for anyone who saw the game or even the box score. The committee looks at film so they know. UM won, was clearly the better team, and not even delirious PSU fans can argue with that (although, they try). The Buckeyes didn’t dominate nearly as much, but they were on the road. The Hokie and some pundits like to almost dismiss UM’s dominance due to it being done in the Big House, but film don’t lie.

UM

PSU

OH

@PSU

score

49

10

score

21

24

1st Down

25

12

1st Down

19

13

Rush

326

70

Rush

168

122

Pass

189

121

Pass

254

154

Yds/Play

6.1

3.5

Yds/Play

5

4.6

Pts/Poss

4.9

0.9

Pts/Poss

1.5

1.7

UM

WI

OH

@WI

Score

14

7

score

30

23

1st Down

21

8

1st Down

23

22

Rush

130

71

Rush

185

236

Pass

219

88

Pass

226

214

Yds/Play

4.6

3

Yds/Play

5.6

6.1

Pts/Poss

1.1

0.5

Pts/Poss

2.7

1.9

UM

CO

Score

45

28

1st Down

20

15

Rush

168

64

Pass

229

261

Yds/Play

5.6

4.9

Pts/Poss

2.6

1.6

UM

OH

Regulation

UM

OH

score

27

30

score

17

17

1st Down

16

23

1st Down

15

20

Rush

91

206

Rush

74

164

Pass

219

124

Pass

205

116

Yds/Play

3.9

4

Yds/Play

4

3.7

Pts/Poss

1.8

2

Pts/Poss

1.3

1.3

Conclusion

So, UM wins a close "vs. ranked/SOS" category in a split decision. UM destroyed WI/PSU/CO H2H. UM loses huge with the conference champ thing. How big is this? It would have to override the other criteria completely. Perhaps conference championship does tip SOS + H2H in the “who is most deserving” category. Perhaps that gives the slightest edge to WI and PSU as “more deserving by the tiniest bit”. I still cannot get by the fact that UM is clearly the better team, and has performed better on the field the whole year. The gap is significant. UM also has a better shot by far vs. the other CFP participants.

It’s a good and tough debate. Not everyone will be fully satisfied with whatever the results will be, but I don’t think CO, WI or PSU should jump UM. I have a sinking feeling the committee might plant a flag in the conference champ camp, though.

A decade after Ohio State and Michigan met as the top two teams in the country, they faced off again with similarly high stakes – and again, Ohio State emerged victorious in a hard-fought classic. The playoff picture isn’t necessarily any clearer, though Michigan is probably now eliminated.

Onto the week that was:

Big Ten

--- The Game, which featured the two best teams in the conference, lived up to the hype, even though it was a game marred by critical mistakes on both sides. MICHIGAN gave up two regulation touchdowns on interceptions from deep in its own end of the field: one was returned by Malik Hooker for a touchdown, another was taken deep into the red zone and punched in on one play. OHIO STATE missed two field goals in regulation, including one from inside Michigan’s five-yard line (the Wolverines fumbled away a sure scoring possession earlier in the game from near the same spot), and JT Barrett was an ineffective passer all game. Still, the game went to overtime after the Buckeyes marched down the field for a game-tying field goal in the waning moments of regulation. In overtime, Michigan responded to an easy OSU touchdown with a tough completion into the end zone on fourth down; in the second overtime, Michigan settled for a field goal and managed to force Ohio State into fourth-and-one – of course, a controversial spot gave the Buckeyes a first down and they scored the game-winning touchdown on the next play. Wilton Speight was available to play for Michigan and, aside from the critical interceptions (one came on a bad read, another on a play where he was hit when he threw), he was capable and helped compensate for an ineffective UM rushing attack. Ohio State struggled with Michigan’s excellent defensive front and they were unable to get much-needed explosive plays, but the Buckeye defense provided just enough scoring to get the game to overtime.

This is the week 13 update of college football team rankings produced by a semi-objective model as described previously here. The model was inspired by Seth's post that proposed a point system to determine bowl eligibility. These rankings aim to be a relatively objective starting point from which to apply considerations such as the eye test, margin of victory, and head-to-head results.

The Rules

+3 points for a conference championship.

+4 points for a win over a top 10 team.

+3 points for a win over a top 25 team (not in top 10).

+2 points for a win over a winning P5 team (not in the top 25).

+1 point for a win over a winning G5 or a losing P5 team.

+0 points for a win over a losing G5 or any FCS team.

-1 point for a loss to a top 10 team.

-2 points for a loss to a top 25 team (not in top 10).

-3 points for a loss to a winning P5 team (not in ttop 25).

-4 points for a loss to a losing P5 or any G5/FCS team.

Week 13 Results

Rank

Team

Points

1

'Ohio State'

23

2

'Clemson'

20

3

'Alabama'

19

4

'Michigan'

17

5

'Penn State'

15

6

'Wisconsin'

15

7

'Washington'

12

8

'Colorado'

10

9

'Florida State'

9

10

'Nebraska'

9

11

'USC'

8

12

'Oklahoma'

7

13

'Iowa'

7

14

'Oklahoma State'

6

15

'Western Michigan'

6

16

'West Virginia'

6

17

'Stanford'

6

18

'Virginia Tech'

5

19

'Louisville'

5

20

'Florida'

5

21

'Pittsburgh'

5

22

'Minnesota'

4

23

'Tennessee'

3

24

'Georgia Tech'

3

25

'North Carolina'

2

26

'Miami (FL)'

2

27

'Auburn'

1

28

'LSU'

1

29

'Boise State'

0

30

'Washington State'

0

31

'South Florida'

-1

32

'Texas A&M'

-1

33

'Utah'

-1

34

'Troy'

-2

35

'Northwestern'

-2

36

'Georgia'

-3

37

'Navy'

-3

38

'Kansas State'

-3

39

'Kentucky'

-3

40

'Houston'

-4

41

'Indiana'

-5

42

'Western Kentucky'

-5

43

'Maryland'

-5

44

'Toledo'

-6

45

'Arkansas'

-6

46

'NC State'

-6

47

'Tulsa'

-7

48

'Appalachian State'

-7

49

'Temple'

-7

50

'Wyoming'

-8

51

'Air Force'

-8

52

'TCU'

-8

53

'Boston College'

-8

54

'Old Dominion'

-9

55

'BYU'

-9

56

'Vanderbilt'

-9

57

'Wake Forest'

-9

58

'South Carolina'

-10

59

'Colorado State'

-11

60

'San Diego State'

-11

61

'Ohio'

-11

62

'Baylor'

-11

63

'Idaho'

-12

64

'Middle Tennessee'

-13

65

'Memphis'

-13

66

'New Mexico'

-13

67

'Lousiana Tech'

-13

68

'Ole Miss'

-13

69

'Oregon'

-14

70

'Arizona State'

-15

71

'Eastern Michigan'

-15

72

'Mississippi State'

-15

73

'California'

-15

74

'Texas Tech'

-15

75

'Syracuse'

-15

76

'Duke'

-16

77

'Army'

-16

78

'Texas'

-16

79

'Illinois'

-16

80

'Missouri'

-17

81

'Oregon State'

-17

82

'Arkansas State'

-18

83

'Central Michigan'

-18

84

'UCLA'

-18

85

'Michigan State'

-18

86

'Purdue'

-19

87

'UCF'

-20

88

'Southern Miss'

-20

89

'Miami (OH)'

-20

90

'UTSA'

-21

91

'Notre Dame'

-21

92

'Rutgers'

-21

93

'Louisiana-Lafayette'

-22

94

'South Alabama'

-22

95

'Akron'

-22

96

'Arizona'

-22

97

'Hawaii'

-23

98

'North Texas'

-24

99

'Georgia Southern'

-24

100

'Iowa State'

-24

101

'SMU'

-25

102

'Northern Illinois'

-25

103

'Louisiana-Monroe'

-25

104

'Virginia'

-26

105

'Kent State'

-27

106

'Nevada'

-28

107

'Georgia State'

-28

108

'Cincinnati'

-29

109

'Bowling Green'

-29

110

'Charlotte'

-29

111

'Ball State'

-29

112

'New Mexico State'

-29

113

'San Jose State'

-30

114

'FIU'

-30

115

'Kansas'

-30

116

'Tulane'

-31

117

'UNLV'

-31

117

'Utah State'

-31

118

'East Carolina'

-31

119

'Marshall'

-31

120

'UTEP'

-31

122

'Rice'

-33

123

'Connecticut'

-34

124

'Texas State'

-34

125

'Florida Atlantic'

-34

126

'Massachusetts'

-35

127

'Buffalo'

-36

128

'Fresno State'

-40

This model loves the Big 10 and hates the SEC outside of Bama. Michigan hangs on to the fourth spot here because of the three top 10 wins and losses coming only to a top 10 team and a top 25 team. The winner of Wisconson vs. Penn State will jump them, however.

Okay, so there has been a lot of talk on the board about whether Michigan still has a chance to make it into the CFP despite the (questionable) loss on Saturday. I wanted to go team-by-team, scenario-by-scenario and examine the potential outcomes. Now, I'm going to use the latest AP rankings since the CFP rankings won't be released until tomorrow night. However, I'm going to guess that tomorrow's rankings look like this...

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Clemson

4. Washington

5. Michigan

6. Wisconsin

7. Penn State

8. Colorado

9. Oklahoma

10. Oklahoma State

So, that would be the list of contenders.

First up...

LOCK: Alabama

No matter what happens in the SEC CG, Alabama is making it to the CFP. They'd be at least on equal footing as every other 1 loss team and I can't see a scenario in which the committee takes Ohio State, Clemson, Washington, and the B1G Champ. Winner ahead of them.

Scenario 1: Clemson and Washington win, Penn State beats Wisconsin

IN: Alabama, Clemson, Washington

These are 3 Power 5 Champions all with 1 or fewer losses. Colorado and Wisconsin would be eliminated with their 3rd loss. The only debate at that point would be who gets the 4th spot between Ohio State and Penn State.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Penn State:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #2 Ohio State, #6 Wisconsin, #22 Iowa

Losses: #5 Michigan, #24 Pitt

That's a real tough debate, but I think the committee would favor the Nittany Lions because of the H2H win and the conference championship. They'd have the same # of Top 25 wins and no bad losses.

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs Washington

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs Colorado or USC

Orange Bowl: Michigan vs Florida State

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Wisconsin vs Western Michigan

Scenario 2: Clemson and Washington win, Wisconsin beats Penn State

IN: Alabama, Clemson, Washington

These are 3 Power 5 Champions all with 1 or fewer losses. Colorado, Penn State, and Oklahoma State would be eliminated with their 3rd loss. The only debate at that point would be who gets the 4th spot between Ohio State and Wisconsin.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Wisconsin:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #8 Penn State, #21 LSU, #22 Iowa, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #5 Michigan

In this scenario, I think the committee goes with Ohio State because the resumes are very similar, but Ohio State would have 3 Top 10 wins to Wisconsin's 1, and the H2H advantage.

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs Washington

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs Colorado or USC

Orange Bowl: Michigan vs Florida State

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Penn State vs Western Michigan

Scenario 3: Washington loses, Penn State beats Wisconsin

IN: Alabama, Clemson

Now, we're getting somewhere. Alabama and either Clemson or Washington would be in. There would be 2 spots available for Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Colorado, and either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Penn State:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #2 Ohio State, #6 Wisconsin, #22 Iowa

Losses: #5 Michigan, #24 Pitt

Michigan:

Record: 10-2

Wins: #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #9 Colorado

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #22 Iowa

Colorado:

Record: 11-2 (Pac-12 Champions)

Wins: #4 Washington, #17 Stanford,

Losses: #5 Michigan, #10 USC

Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #11 Oklahoma State, #14 West Virginia

Losses: Houston, #2 Ohio State

OR

Oklahoma State

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #7 Oklahoma, #14 West Virginia, #24 Pitt

Losses: Central Michigan, Baylor

This would probably be a good barometer for how much conference titles matter. I don't think Oklahoma State comes close to making it because of the two bad losses to .500 teams so we can eliminate them from any future scenarios. Oklahoma has a bad loss and would have zero Top 10 wins. Their resume just wouldn't stack up to any of the other contenders who would all have a Top 10 win and zero bad losses. I can't see a way the committee puts in Colorado ahead of Penn State under any scenario, so in this case, I think Penn State and Ohio State get in.

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs Colorado

Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs Florida State

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Washington vs Western Michigan

Scenario 4: Washington loses, Wisconsin beats Penn State

IN: Alabama, Clemson

A little different here because of the differences between Wisconsin and Penn State.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Wisconsin:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #8 Penn State, #21 LSU, #22 Iowa, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #5 Michigan

Michigan:

Record: 10-2

Wins: #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #9 Colorado

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #22 Iowa

Colorado:

Record: 11-2 (Pac-12 Champions)

Wins: #4 Washington, #17 Stanford,

Losses: #5 Michigan, #10 USC

Washington:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #17 Stanford

Losses: #9 Colorado, #10 USC

Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #11 Oklahoma State, #14 West Virginia

Losses: Houston, #2 Ohio State

I have to imagine Ohio State would definitely be in in this scenario, but here is an opportunity for Michigan to sneak in. Wisconsin would have 1 Top 10 win (over Penn State) and H2H losses to both Ohio State and Michigan. Would the committee value the conference championship and that extra win enough? The Coaches Poll certainly had no issues putting Wisconsin over Michigan in their latest poll. Again, Oklahoma's resume pales in comparison especially with the result vs Ohio State and the lack of high quality wins. Colorado maybe sneaks in, but it'd be tough to argue they deserve a spot over Wisconsin who has twice as many Top 25 win and a better loss (Michigan cancelling out). Washington's weak non-con schedule would most certainly eliminate them as their best win would be over Stanford and they'd have lost to any other Top 25 team they played.

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Wisconsin or Michigan

Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Michigan or Wisconsin vs Colorado

Orange Bowl: Penn State vs Florida State

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Washington vs Western Michigan

Scenario 5: Clemson loses, Penn State beats Wisconsin

IN: Alabama, Washington

Pretty much the same deal as Scenario 3, but with Washington in place of Clemson. At that point, Clemson will have losses to Pitt and West Virginia and three good wins so they'd be in the conversation.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Penn State:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #2 Ohio State, #6 Wisconsin, #22 Iowa

Losses: #5 Michigan, #24 Pitt

Michigan:

Record: 10-2

Wins: #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #9 Colorado

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #22 Iowa

Clemson:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #12 Florida State, #16 Louisville, #18 Auburn

Losses: Virginia Tech, #24 Pitt

Colorado:

Record: 11-2 (Pac-12 Champions)

Wins: #4 Washington, #17 Stanford,

Losses: #5 Michigan, #10 USC

Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #11 Oklahoma State, #14 West Virginia

Losses: Houston, #2 Ohio State

This probably ends up the same way as Scenario 3 because you have to put in Ohio State in this scenario and if Ohio State goes, Penn State probably is in too.

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs Colorado or USC

Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs Clemson

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Colorado or USC or Florida State vs Western Michigan

Scenario 6: Clemson loses, Wisconsin beats Penn State

IN: Alabama, Washington

So, here we go again with the same deal as Scenario 4, but with a little different outcome. Again, how much do conference championships and a 11th win matter. Does the totality of the season and H2H matter more? I'd like to think it does, but the committee may say that Michigan beat Wisconsin by 7 points at home, so they're basically on equal footing.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Wisconsin:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #8 Penn State, #21 LSU, #22 Iowa, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #5 Michigan

Michigan:

Record: 10-2

Wins: #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #9 Colorado

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #22 Iowa

Colorado:

Record: 11-2 (Pac-12 Champions)

Wins: #4 Washington, #17 Stanford,

Losses: #5 Michigan, #10 USC

Clemson:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #12 Florida State, #16 Louisville, #18 Auburn

Losses: Virginia Tech, #24 Pitt

Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #11 Oklahoma State, #14 West Virginia

Losses: Houston, #2 Ohio State

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Wisconsin or Michigan

Fiesta Bowl: Washington vs Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Michigan or Wisconsin vs Colorado or USC

Orange Bowl: Penn State vs Clemson

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Colorado or USC or Florida State vs Western Michigan

Scenario 7: Clemson AND Washington lose, Penn State beats Wisconsin

IN: Alabama

Now, this is where things get good. There are 3 available spots and 6 teams for those 3 spots. You'd have 3 conference champions in Penn State, Colorado, and Oklahoma and then Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Penn State:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #2 Ohio State, #6 Wisconsin, #22 Iowa

Losses: #5 Michigan, #24 Pitt

Michigan:

Record: 10-2

Wins: #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #9 Colorado

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #22 Iowa

Colorado:

Record: 11-2 (Pac-12 Champions)

Wins: #4 Washington, #17 Stanford,

Losses: #5 Michigan, #10 USC

Clemson:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #12 Florida State, #16 Louisville, #18 Auburn

Losses: Virginia Tech, #24 Pitt

Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #11 Oklahoma State, #14 West Virginia

Losses: Houston, #2 Ohio State

Washington:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #17 Stanford

Losses: #9 Colorado, #10 USC

Again, I think we can go ahead and eliminate Washington due to a lack of good wins. There's zero chance the CFP puts in 3 B1G teams in the playoff so again, Penn State and Ohio State go and I think Colorado goes at that point.

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs Colorado or Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs Colorado or Washington or USC

Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs Clemson

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Washington or USC vs Western Michigan

Scenario 8: Clemson AND Washington lose, Wisconsin beats Penn State

IN: Alabama

Here is Michigan's best chance to make the CFP. They'd have the H2H win over Wisconsin and you can't make the Penn State argument (they beat Ohio State). A straight comparison of resumes would give Michigan the edge over any other contender. The only other 2 loss teams that will have won the conference championship would be Colorado who Michigan beat by 17 points, Wisconsin who Michigan beat as well, and Oklahoma who would have an outside shot. It'd be far from a guarantee that Michigan would make it, but this would be the only scenario where I'd say it's a 50/50 proposition.

Ohio State:

Record: 11-1

Wins: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin, #7 Oklahoma, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #8 Penn State

Wisconsin:

Record: 11-2 (B1G Champions)

Wins: #8 Penn State, #21 LSU, #22 Iowa, #23 Nebraska

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #5 Michigan

Michigan:

Record: 10-2

Wins: #6 Wisconsin, #8 Penn State, #9 Colorado

Losses: #2 Ohio State, #22 Iowa

Colorado:

Record: 11-2 (Pac-12 Champions)

Wins: #4 Washington, #17 Stanford,

Losses: #5 Michigan, #10 USC

Clemson:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #12 Florida State, #16 Louisville, #18 Auburn

Losses: Virginia Tech, #24 Pitt

Oklahoma

Record: 10-2 (Big XII Champions)

Wins: #11 Oklahoma State, #14 West Virginia

Losses: Houston, #2 Ohio State

Washington:

Record: 11-2

Wins: #17 Stanford

Losses: #9 Colorado, #10 USC

Projected NY6:

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Michigan or Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs Colorado or Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Michigan or Wisconsin vs Colorado or Washington or USC

Orange Bowl: Penn State vs Clemson

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State vs Auburn or Florida

Cotton Bowl: Washington or USC vs Western Michigan

TLDR: Michigan needs Wisconsin to beat Penn State and at least Washington or Clemson to lose (and probably both) to have a shot at the CFP. Most likely outcome is an Orange Bowl against Florida State or a Rose Bowl against Colorado or USC.