Member of The Month SEPTEMBER 2009

ISTANBUL — Russia and Turkey concluded energy agreements on Thursday that will support Turkey’s drive to become a regional hub for fuel transshipments while helping Moscow maintain its monopoly on natural gas shipments from Asia to Europe.

Turkey granted the Russian natural gas giant Gazprom use of its territorial waters in the Black Sea, under which the company wants to route its so-called South Stream pipeline to gas markets in Eastern and Southern Europe.

In return, a Russian oil pipeline operator agreed to join a consortium to build a pipeline across the Anatolian Peninsula, from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, and Gazprom affirmed a commitment to expand an existing Black Sea gas pipeline for possible transshipment across Turkey to Cyprus or Israel.

Energy companies in both countries agreed to a joint venture to build conventional electric power plants, and the Interfax news agency in Russia reported that Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin offered to reopen talks on Russian assistance to Turkey in building nuclear power reactors.

The agreements were signed in Ankara, the Turkish capital, in meetings between Mr. Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Italy’s prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, who has joined Mr. Putin on several energy projects, attended the ceremony. The Italian company Eni broke ground on the trans-Anatolian oil pipeline this year.

While the offer of specific pipeline deals and nuclear cooperation represented a new tactic by Mr. Putin, the wider struggle for dominance of the Eurasian pipelines is a long-running chess match in which he has often excelled.

As he has in the past, Mr. Putin traveled to Turkey with his basket of tempting strategic and economic benefits immediately after a similar mission by his opponents. A month ago, European governments signed an agreement in Turkey to support the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, which would compete directly with the South Stream project.

By skirting Russian territory, the Nabucco pipeline would undercut Moscow’s monopoly on European natural gas shipments and the pricing power and political clout that come with it. That may explain why Nabucco, which cannot go forward without Turkey’s support, has encountered a variety of obstacles thrown up by the Russian government, including efforts to deny it vital gas supplies in the East and a customer base in the West.

Turkey and other countries in the path of Nabucco have been eager players in this geopolitical drama, entertaining offers from both sides. Turkish authorities have even tried, without much success, to leverage the pipeline negotiations to further Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, while keeping options with Russia open, too.

“These countries are more than happy to sign agreements with both parties,” Ana Jelenkovic, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said in a telephone interview from London. “There’s no political benefit to shutting out or ceasing energy relations with Russia.”

Under the deal Mr. Putin obtained Thursday, Gazprom will be allowed to proceed with seismic and environmental tests in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, necessary preliminary steps for laying the South Stream pipe, Prime Minister Erdogan said at a news conference.

After the meeting, Mr. Putin said, “We agreed on every issue.”

The trans-Anatolian oil pipeline also marginally improves Russia’s position in the region. The pipeline is one of two so-called Bosporus bypass systems circumventing the straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which are operating at capacity in tanker traffic.

The preferred Western route is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which allows companies to ship Caspian Basin crude oil to the West without crossing Russian territory; the pipeline instead crosses the former Soviet republic of Georgia and avoids the crowded straits by cutting across Turkey to the Mediterranean.

Russia prefers northbound pipelines out of the Caspian region that terminate at tanker terminals on the Black Sea. The success of this plan depends, in turn, on creating additional capacity in the Bosporus bypass routes. Russia is backing two such pipelines.

Mr. Putin’s offer to move ahead with a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Turkey suggests a sweetening of the overall Russian offer on energy deals with Turkey, while both Western and Russian proposals are on the table.

The nuclear aspect of the deal drew protests. About a dozen Greenpeace protesters were surrounded by at least 200 armored police officers in central Ankara on Thursday.

The Boeing Company is replicating its US business model in India and scaling up operations, eyeing a major chunk of the $31-billion military and industrial aerospace market.

The US-based aircraft manufacturing giant will expand its manufacturing presence, launch subsidiaries and strengthen research and development programmes in the country.

"In the last six years, we expanded presence to nine locations from one in 2003, increased executive strength and launched R&D centres in India. The country is an important market for Boeing outside the US," Vivek Lall, vice-president and country head, Integrated Defense Systems, Boeing International Corporation India, told Business Standard.

"The India business would be a microcosm of all our businesses in the US," Lall said. The company, he added, was keen on becoming India's 'preferred aerospace partner.'

Boeing is eyeing the $10-billion military aircraft contract and will plough back around 30-50 per cent into the country under an offset clause. The figure depends on the contracts to be awarded by the government of India. The clause requires firms to engage in some local manufacturing and transfer of technologies to Indian subsidiaries or partners.

Boeing, which has six R&D labs in the US, will develop its technology centre in Bangalore as a centralised R&D division for its major business units. Earlier, reports had mentioned that Boeing was looking at adding 100 engineers at its centre.

The aircraft major is in talks with several private firms, including Mahindra & Mahindra, for aerospace manufacturing partnerships, similar to the ones it had signed with the Tata group, Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

Jeppesen, a subsidiary of Boeing, is close to setting up an office in Hyderabad, while another, Aviall, the company's spare parts subsidiary, already has operations from Noida.

The company would also set up additional virtual warfare centres across the country, which already has two nodes (Bangalore and Delhi ). Boeing had earlier set up a virtual warfare centre in Bangalore. It has also plans to increase the quantum of outsourcing it provides to Indian information technology companies like Wipro and HCL

The US aviation major has accepted a request from the Indian government for proposals to supply F/A-18 Hornet series fighter jets, the Apache attack chopper, the heavy lift helicopter, Chinook, and C-17 strategic choppers. Field trials of the aircraft are expected to begin soon.

Boeing had earlier signed R&D partnerships with many Indian firms and IIT-Kanpur for integration of passive and active radio frequency identification technology, and with National Aeronautical Laboratory for development of computational fluid dynamics tools and testing aircraft landing gear.

The company's research in India also covers advanced composites, high-strength alloys, non-destructive evaluation and virtual manufacturing.

Boeing is bullish on India because the country was one of the few markets which is still growing, despite the global economic crisis.

MOSCOW, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Russia's economy shrank by a sharper than expected 10.9 percent in the second quarter of this year in its worst annual fall on record, raising questions over government assurances that it has found a floor.

Russia is weathering its first recession in a decade, hit by a slump in world demand, weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports, investor flight from emerging markets and the local business repercussions of the global credit crunch.

The country, which built the world's third largest reserves during the boomtime years, plans to run a budget deficit of over $100 billion next year after a similar gap this year and would need to borrow heavily at home and abroad.

The city of Moscow, Russia's top regional borrower, rushed on Tuesday to raise its borrowing plan ahead of the federal government to cover its own budget gap.

Russia's statistics service said on Tuesday its preliminary estimates showed gross domestic product grew 7.5 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, when GDP contracted by 9.8 percent on an annual basis. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast an annual contraction of 10.4 percent for the second quarter.

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s economy probably posted its biggest contraction in three decades last quarter as the global recession and swine flu caused a plunge in industrial output and employment, the Finance Ministry said.

Gross domestic product may have contracted 10.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after declining 8.2 percent in the previous three months, the ministry said in an e- mailed report yesterday. The government is due to release last quarter’s GDP figures on Aug. 20.

“In the second quarter of 2009, the external environment continued to be adverse,” the ministry said. “The flu outbreak temporarily affected activity in several sectors and regions, particularly in those related to tourism and leisure.”

Mexican job losses have accelerated this year as the recession in the U.S., which buys about 80 percent of the nation’s exports, saps demand for products. The central bank said this week that the economy will shrink in 2009 at almost double the pace it previously forecast, predicting a contraction of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent.

The economy is showing clear signs of economic recovery though it requires additional fiscal and monetary stimulus to ensure growth this year, said on Tuesday, June 9, Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega reacting to the latest data which showed the country had fallen into technical recession. Earlier in the day official data showed Brazil's economy shrank 0.8% in the first quarter from the previous one, much better than forecasts. This means that Brazil's GDP contracted 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. The economy had contracted 3.6% in the last quarter of 2008, thus completing two successive periods of negative growth, technically defined as a recession.

Indyakudimahan

TOKYO — Japan on Monday became the latest major economy to escape from recession, lifting hopes that a fledgling global recovery is taking hold thanks to massive pump-priming efforts.

The world's second-largest economy rebounded for the first time in five quarters, following Germany and France in returning to positive growth after the most brutal economic downturn in decades.

The news was particularly welcome for Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose long-ruling party risks being swept from power in an election later this month as voters turn to an opposition pledging a stronger social safety net.

Japan's economy grew 0.9 percent in April-June, after shrinking a revised 3.1 percent the previous quarter and by 3.5 percent in October-December 2008, the government said.

On an annualised basis, the economy grew 3.7 percent in the second quarter, outperforming the United States, the eurozone and Britain.

"Japan fared much better than the other major developed economies in the second quarter of 2009," said Macquarie Securities economist Richard Jerram.

But this was largely because exports had fallen so heavily in the previous two quarters, he added.

Japan's exports rebounded 6.3 percent in April-June -- the first increase in five quarters.

Japan plunged into recession in the second quarter of 2008 as a severe global downturn crushed demand for its cars, electronics and other goods.

The economy is expected to keep growing through the rest of 2009, said Barclays Capital economist Kyohei Morita.

"However, this is still a recovery underpinned by government policy measures and far from a self-sustaining turnaround," he warned.

Japan exited recession before the United States, which shrank 1.0 percent in the second quarter, although that was also much better than a 6.4 percent drop in January-March.

Asia's biggest economy is benefiting from a recovery in its biggest trading partner, China, which enjoyed a stunning turnaround in the second quarter, helped by huge government stimulus spending.

Tokyo has also launched a series of stimulus spending packages -- including cash handouts -- to cushion the blow of rising unemployment, which hit 5.4 percent in June, approaching its post-World War II high of 5.5 percent.

Aso hailed the data as proof that his efforts to revive the economy are working.

"Since I became prime minister, I have done my best on economic measures," he told a televised debate with rival party leaders. "As a result, we have seen some signs of a brighter future for the economy."

But the announcement that Japan is technically out of recession offered little solace to its growing ranks of unemployed.

"I'm having a really hard time. I've been looking for a job for four months," said 60-year-old Kiyoshi Ohno, who was searching for work at an employment centre in Tokyo.

"It's impossible to expect an economic recovery within about two years," he added.

Japan's economy also saw plenty of false starts during its 1990s "lost decade" and the fear is that the current green shoots of recovery might also soon wilt.

Economic growth is likely to lose momentum in the third quarter as exports have started to slow and rising unemployment is weighing on consumer spending, said RBS Securities economist Junko Nishioka.

"In addition, the effect of the economic stimulus packages is likely to gradually diminish," Nishioka said.

There are concerns that rising unemployment and renewed deflation may hinder a recovery.

"Our hope is that we will enter a self-sustaining recovery," said Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi.

But he added: "We must keep our eyes on risks such as the worsening employment situation, the effect of the global financial crisis and worries over the global recession."

Investors gave a cautious response to the growth figures, with the Nikkei-225 stock index falling 3.1 percent by the close

On Vacation!

Forget it…there ain’t no letter in the alphabet that describes a “recovery” we’re likely to have.

We say that in the spirit of mischief as well as elucidation. Of course, the world won’t stay in a depression forever. And even depression ain’t so bad, once you get used to it. The world economy will probably drag around a bit on the bottom…with low, or negative, growth rates in most places…until it finds a new model. The old model is dead. The authorities can put on as much rouge and powder as they want. They could even give the corpse jolts of electricity to make it sit up. But they can’t revive it. It’s finished. Over. Kaput.

The old model involved lots of players playing lots of different roles. But the main protagonists were the USA. and China. Not to put too fine a point on it, but China was the maker; the United States was the taker. It was a relationship that seemed to serve both parties well…but one that actually enabled foolish and, ultimately, destructive behavior – especially on the part of the United States.

When we were growing up, China was a ‘Red Menace.’ It was full of mad people doing mad things. They humiliated people by making them wear dunce hats and march through town. The Chinese made steel in backyard barbecues. They built hidden palaces for Mao (the Great Helmsman)…wore odd outfits…and threw female babies onto trash piles. (We’re not making any of this up!)

But then came a period of sanity. Deng Xiaoping decided to turn the whole country in the direction of capitalism. At first, this was thought to be a great boon to the West. We had won! And suddenly, there were a billion more consumers in the world economy. Company executives went to sleep with sweet dreams: ‘If we can sell one refrigerator to just one out of every 1,000 Chinese…’

The dreams became nightmares. Instead of selling American-made refrigerators to the Chinese, the Chinese sold Chinese-made refrigerators…and toaster ovens…and tables…and every gadget, gizmo and whatchamacallit known to man…to Americans. Instead of being a consumer…China became a manufacturer – taking the ‘export route’ to prosperity, pioneered by Japan in the ’60s and ’70s…and perfected later by Korea and Taiwan. Instead of adding to the world’s demand for products made by the developed countries, China became the biggest supplier of stuff on the planet.

China made…China sold…China took its money, bought US Treasury paper, thereby helping to keep lending rates low in the United States, and made some more. It worked beautifully as long as Americans were willing and able to continue spending. But no camel’s back is infinitely strong. The final straw came in 2007 – with total debt equal to 370% of GDP.

And now the jig is up. The old formula won’t work – neither for Americans nor for the Chinese. Despite the urging of their government, Americans cannot be expected to take on more debt in order to continue consuming more stuff from China. Nor can the Chinese reasonably expect to work themselves out of an overcapacity problem by creating more of it.

But the officials in both countries seem equally benighted. They don’t seem to think very deeply, no matter what language they think in. On one side of the Pacific, the Americans think they can bring a recovery by encouraging consumers to borrow and consume more stuff. On the other, officials offer credit to entrepreneurs and industrialists – encouraging them to build more factories and add more capacity so they can make more stuff. Neither seems to realize that the real problem is THAT THE WORLD HAS TOO MUCH STUFF ALREADY.

In the United States, the private sector drags its feet; it’s had enough of debt. But along come the feds like Fred Astaire or Arthur Murray…ready to borrow and spend until the champagne runs out. When it comes to self-destruction, the feds are no slouches.

They’re borrowing and spending trillions – $8 trillion is to be added to US debt over the next 8 years. So far, this money has done nothing to relieve the underlying problem: the consumer has too much debt and too little income. The government can give him a tax rebate…or give him a check for a clunker. These giveaways will produce a temporary boost. But when the giveaways give way there is nothing left. Does the guy who bought a car with government cash in 2009 buy another one in 2010? Does the fellow who brought his mortgage up-to-date with a tax rebate in 2008 go out and buy a new house in 2009?

The problems are real…at the heart of the real economy. They are not problems that can be solved by monkeying with the money supply, interest rates, or even fiscal policy. They are problems that need to be solved by the real economy…in the real economy…by consumers, who need to pay off their debts, and by businessmen, who need to adjust to the realities of the real world – adapting their capacity so as to produce things for people who can actually afford to buy them. It’s a long process…with many bankruptcies and disappointments along the way…

That process has only just begun. It will deepen and get worse, as both consumers and businessmen realize that there will be no quick recovery…and no return to the old model – ever. Look for more layoffs…more foreclosures…more cutbacks and workouts…

Look for more depression, dear reader…

And learn to like it; it will be with us for a long time.

The Dow bounced yesterday…up 82 points, after a sell-off on Monday. This leaves it still about 1,000 points shy of the comparable rally of 1930. Will it continue bouncing until it equals the 1930 level? Or is the rally over? We wait to find out…

It is hot here in France. After weeks of cool weather, we are finally getting something that feels like summer. The mornings are still fresh and beautiful. We sit outside to drink our coffee and eat our croissants. But in the afternoon, we barricade ourselves behind closed shutters…waiting for the heat to pass.

Our son Will and an associate from Buenos Aires are here working on a new project. They were asked to take charge of the family office. What’s a family office? Ah…glad you asked. A family office is a way for a family to deal with its money in an organized, disciplined fashion. The idea is to treat the family itself as though it were a business…and to maximize its return on capital and labor invested.

Your editor follows the markets every day. But he does not necessarily invest, manage his money, minimize his taxes, or control his expenses any better than anyone else. And yet, he has available to him one of the finest groups of analysts and advisors in the world. The Family Office – run by Will – is a way for us to put 2 and 2 together…to use the resources we already have at our fingertips. We aim to manage our family money in a more professional way…to reduce the effect of taxes (especially estate and gift taxes…from one generation to the next)…and to manage our resources better.

Tihar Jail

LONDON, England (CNN) -- With irresponsible banking practices taking the blame for bringing about the global economic crisis, there has been a surge of interest in Islamic finance.

Now, a slew of academic courses are springing up to meet the demand of those wanting to break into an expanding market.

According to ratings agency Moody's, the global Islamic finance sector is worth $700 billion and has the potential to be worth $4 trillion.

What's more, the ethical principles underpinning Islamic finance are seen by some as offering a more sustainable alternative to profit-oriented conventional banking. The result is that academic institutions are lining up to offer formal training in the area.

"There is a huge demand for Islamic finance courses now, so large that it's difficult to cope with," Professor Habib Ahmed, Sharjarh chair in the school of government and international affairs at Durham University, England, told CNN.

Durham will launch a Masters degree in Islamic finance from October, becoming one of a number of European institutions to offer Islamic finance programs.

"Islamic finance has been growing by 15 to 20 percent per year for some time and there is a lot of interest at the moment. People are looking for alternatives after the economic crisis."

"Islamic economists believe that if the principles of Islamic finance were followed the crisis wouldn't have happed. We are seeing a lot of non-Muslim countries, including the UK, France, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore encouraging Islamic finance," he said.

There are many differences between Islamic and conventional banking practices. One fundamental difference is that Islamic banks do not charge interest. Rather than borrowers and lenders, the system is based on buyers and sellers.

"Conventional banking is biased to the seller. Islamic finance is trying to level the ethics between the two parties," Aly Khorshid, an Islamic finance scholar who writes for Islamic Banking and Finance magazine, told CNN.

"People think the Islamic system is based on faith, but it's based on justice. The system is based on justice for the two parties and how you get to the justice is extracted from Islamic faith," he said.

Khorshid said that there are similarities between "ethical investment" schemes and Islamic finance, in that the Islamic system does not allow investment that harms people or the environment. He credits the rapid growth of the Islamic finance sector on the success of "sukuk" -- Islamic bonds.

In the West, banks including Lloyds TSB, HSBC, Deutsche Bank and Citibank all offer Islamic finance products, catering to a niche market of Muslim borrowers.

But while Islamic banks allow Muslims to take advantage of financial services that are consistent with their religious beliefs, it is the ethics underpinning Islamic finance that are attracting the interest of conventional finance institutions keen to learn lessons from the banking crisis.

Although Islamic banks have suffered from the global repercussions of the economic downturn, they emerged largely unscathed from the initial banking meltdown that brought about that financial turmoil.

Ahmed told CNN that is because Islamic banks are not allowed to deal in mortgage-backed securities or credit-default swaps, two of the practices accused of helping bring about the banking crisis.

Khorshid said that although it's too early to say if Islamic finance has dealt with economic downturn better than conventional finance, the Islamic system has many more layers of risk assessment and management, which could help protect it from the problems afflicting conventional banks.

But the growth of Islamic finance has brought its own problems. Critics say some banks use Islamic finance to package what are essentially conventional products. "Islamic banks are also driven by the profit motive and sometimes that can dominate the ethics," Ahmed told CNN.

While Europe is catching up with the demand for these banking products, the U.S. is lagging behind. Ahmed says that regulatory and legal changes are needed for Islamic finance to grow in the U.S., but he adds there are signs that Canada may become a North American center for Islamic finance.

The lack of Islamic finance services in the U.S. is reflected in a relative lack of demand for Islamic finance courses, but in the UK there is the opposite problem.

With students coming from Asia and the Middle East to get the qualifications that will help them take advantage of the Islamic finance boom, Ahmed says it is difficult for universities to find qualified teaching staff. "Most people with PhDs in Islamic finance are working in the industry, making a lot of money," he told CNN.

He added that Islamic finance products have the potential to appeal to the non-Muslims market, pointing out that in Malaysia the majority of customers for Islamic banks aren't Muslims.

Member of The Month SEPTEMBER 2009

Geneva: France has received a list of 3,000 French taxpayers with bank accounts in Switzerland as part of a double taxation agreement signed between the two countries last week, according to a report in a French newspaper on Sunday.

French Budget Minister Eric Woerth was quoted in the weekly Journal du Dimanche as saying the accounts contained some USD 4.3 billion), "some of which is very likely linked to tax evasion."

Woerth called on the account holders to come forward and bring their tax affairs in order by the end of the year. He ruled out an amnesty for tax evaders. "That would be an indefensible injustice," he said according to the interview published on the paper's Web site.
Swiss officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

If confirmed, it would be the second time Switzerland has agreed to set aside its strict banking secrecy rules and hand over the names of foreigners suspected of tax evasion.

Earlier this month Switzerland agreed to give the United States the names of 4,450 American taxpayers suspected of setting up secret offshore accounts with the help of Swiss bank UBS AG.

The deal was part of a settlement to end a long-running US probe against UBS, which became the focus of Washington's efforts to crack down on tax evaders.

NEW DELHI: Investigation into the fake currency racket has led to some very startling revelations linking Nepal's former prince Paras to underworld kingpin Dawood Ibrahim. ( Watch Video )

The revelations came during the interrogation of two Nepali nationals caught by the Madhya Pradesh ATS, while trying to smuggle in the fake currency notes into India.

The two men named this man, a prominent minister's son Yunus Ansari as the conduit between King Gyanendra's son Paras and India’s most wanted terrorist Dawood Ibrahim, who between them have been pushing crores of fake currency into India.

Reports suggest that Dawood looks at the printing and manufacture of the fake currency, while Paras is responsible for the transit of the money from other countries into Nepal and then it's flow into India.

Paras, the son of the former Nepal king, who has now taken refuge in Singapore, used his influence to ensure the money reached the transit points on the India-Nepal border without any hitch.

Ians September 1st, 2009
GENEVA - Over 50 global carriers lost $6 billion (Rs.30,000 crore) in January-June this year, according to the sector’s representative body International Air Transport Association.

In a statement Tuesday, IATA also said the losses stood at $2.02 billion (Rs.10,000 crore) in the second quarter this year (April-June) and forecast cumulative losses of $9 billion (Rs.45,000) for the year.

IATA said Asia-Pacific and European carriers reported more losses than last year. While North American airlines managed to trim their losses, Latin American and Middle Eastern carriers reported a rise in profits.

About 16 Asia-Pacific carriers posted losses of $1.29 billion (Rs.6,450 crore) during the second quarter, as against $958 million (Rs.4,790 crore) during the corresponding period last year.

On the other hand, 12 European airlines incurred losses of $1.1 billion (Rs.5,500 crore) during April-June while earning profits of $439 million (Rs.2,195 crore) in the year-ago period.

Also, at least 20 North Amercian airlines have been able to bring down their losses from $419 million (Rs.2,095 crore) during April-June 2008 to $134 million (Rs.679 crore) in the corresponding period this year.

Latin American carriers, IATA said, have substantially increased their profits — from $5 million (Rs.25 crore) in the second quarter last year to $485 million (Rs.2,425 crore) this year.

West Asian carriers have also raised their profits to $20 million (Rs.100 crore) during the second quarter this year from $7 million (Rs.35 crore) during the corresponding period last year, the IATA added.50 carriers globally lose $6 bn in first half

Member of The Month SEPTEMBER 2009

US oil firm Chevron has signed $60bn (£36bn) worth of deals to supply natural gas to Japan and South Korea from its Gorgon project in Australia.
Chevron Australia said it would supply Osaka Gas with 1.375 million tonnes of natural gas a year over 25 years.
Tokyo Gas would receive 1.1 million tonnes and South Korea's GS Caltex would get 0.5 million tonnes.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd described the deals as a "shot in the arm" for the Australian economy.
Last month, PetroChina signed a deal to buy $50bn worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Gorgon - the largest trade deal in Australia's history.
Separately, India's Petronet signed a $25m deal.Controversial siteMr Rudd said the latest deals "will deliver in the order of A$70bn worth of exports to Australia over the next 25 years".
He told parliament it had been a "great month" for Australia's LNG export industry.
"These are massive projects that will generate economic growth, income, jobs and prosperity for the nation for decades to come.''
The yet-to-be-developed Gorgon gas field on Barrow Island off western Australia is expected to generate 6,000 jobs and make Australia a leading LNG supplier in the region.
But the A$50bn ($42bn; £25.6bn) project has met opposition from environmentalists as Barrow Island is home to a number of endangered, rare and endemic species.
Chevron and its partners in the project, Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil, are expected to give the go ahead for production in the coming weeks.

Member of The Month OCTOBER 2009

Washington: The International Monetary Fund said its executive board endorsed the sale of 403 tonnes of gold, worth an estimated 13 billion dollars, to boost its lending capacity to poor countries. The IMF said in a statement the sales would be "in a volume strictly limited to 403.3 metric tonnes, with these sales to be conducted under modalities that safeguard against disruption of the gold market." The 186-nation institution said the decision was a core element of a new income model to make it less dependent on its lending revenue to cover expenses, such as surveillance of members' economic and financial policies that the board had approved in April 2008.

: Precious metals are becoming truly precious as they near historical highs. This time, though, the scenario is different. Gold, the most actively monitored commodity, has broken though its historical high, closing at $1,006, the highest close on the Comex for the near month contract. Gold is again being viewed as a safe haven and safe money is flowing in its direction.

Though there are many views on gold’s future, we are bullish on gold (and have been of the view for some time now). Compared to year-to-date returns across asset classes, gold dominates, returning 17.34%, whereas the Dow Jones is down 7.78%, crude is down 25.41% and US treasury is down 1.51%.

Another view is that why not invest in silver for its better recent returns. A valid question given that silver prices shot up 23% in the last month, whereas gold prices rose just 8.32%. Over the last 12 months, silver has appreciated by 46.5%, whereas gold has risen only 17.64%.

So what differentiates these two precious metals and why the divergence in their prices? The answer lies in the usage patterns of these precious metals. Gold is primarily used to store wealth, while silver is more an industrial commodity than precious metal. This basic difference drives their performance, though they do tend to move in the same direction most of the time. In a high growth environment, when GDP and manufacturing growth is high, silver tends to outperform gold. During periods of deflation, gold’s ability to protect wealth gives it an edge.

Another way to judge which precious metal would provide better returns is to look at the gold-silver ratio. This ratio is arrived at by calculating how many silver ounces are required to buy one ounce of gold. One year ago, the gold-silver ratio was 80, meaning that 80 ounces of silver was equal to 1 ounce of gold. The ratio is now 59, closer to its historical average.

In addition, silver has dominated over the past six months and has outperformed gold. Furthermore, base metal prices, which are indicators of industrial activity, have already risen significantly from their lows supported by China’s inventory build up. This Chinese story may come to an end soon as the inventory overhang could depress further buying, which could lead to a short-term correction in base metals and in turn would impact silver’s performance.

All the above reasons suggest that gold should be the preferred investment choice among precious metals at this point in time. We maintain our bullish view on gold with a target of around $1,250 by March 2010 (Rs18,000-18,300) and suggest accumulation on every dip.

Simultaneously, base metals witnessed some selling pressure last week after touching highs during the start of the week. Prices fell as China’s imports dropped, its exports declined, and global reserves grew. The gains in overseas prices slashed arbitrage trading.

China’s latest trade data also put pressure on copper and other base metals prices. Though tightening regulation on lead smelters by China is bullish news, we believe it has been blown out of proportion. We are at a point where industrial production is strong when compares to the worst figures of 2008 in many countries, but many manufacturers are well-stocked and are slowing their purchases. On the economic front, data such as the German PPI and the UK budget deficit have not made any major impact on metal prices.

Overall, the backdrop for metals looks quite supportive with firmer equities and a weak dollar, but in recent days the link with the dollar seems to have broken down and it does look like there is some selling going which dip buyers have to absorb.

Metals, however, do seem to be undergoing some distribution on the charts as metal prices are not joining in on this latest run higher in equities and seem to have disengaged from recent dollar weakness. Among metals, nickel seems to have broken down; aluminum is following its lead and may stay positive for a few more sessions, while the rest are holding just above support levels.

Member of The Month OCTOBER 2009

New York: As many as 22 large banks in Europe may have accumulated credit losses of close to 400 billion euro (over USD 580 billion) for this year and the next year, as per draft conclusions of 'stress tests' conducted by European regulators, a media report has said.

Citing officials who have seen a draft of conclusions of 'stress tests' conducted by European regulators, the International Herald Tribune said, "Twenty-two large banks in Europe may have accumulated credit losses of close to 400 euro billion for this year and next. The bank tests in Europe were conducted by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors or CEBS.

Indyakudimahan

Seoul, Oct 6 (Yonhap) South Korea's economy is expected to grow at a faster clip than most other advanced nations in 2014, a report showed today, suggesting that the Asian country will stage a swift recovery from the worst downturn in more than a decade.

According to the report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 4.5 per cent in 2014, the third-fastest among 33 major advanced countries reviewed by the Washington-based lending organization. That is higher than the average 2.4 per cent growth projected for the whole country group.

Taiwan topped the list with growth of 5 per cent, trailed by Singapore with an advance of 4.6 percent, the report showed. For next year, the IMF forecast South Korea's economy will expand 3.6 per cent after shrinking 1 percent this year.

"We expect growth in sub-Saharan Africa to rise to 4 per cent in 2010 and 5 percent in 2011," said Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, Director of the IMF's African Department.

Commenting on the main findings of the IMF's report - the 2009 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, Sayeh noted that many of the regional member states were hard hit by the crisis, reducing economic growth to just 1 per cent in 2009 after a period of sustained high economic growth.

She said oil exporters and middle income countries in the region have been particularly badly affected, and most low-income countries somewhat less so, adding that in most countries, however, the crisis will likely slow, if not reverse, progress on poverty reduction.

Member of The Month OCTOBER 2009

Moscow: Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink 7.5 percent in 2009, President Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview released Sunday, after earlier government predictions of an eight percent drop. "This year, we expect to see the GDP decline by about 7.5 percent," Medvedev said in an interview with Russia's Channel One state television, according to a transcript released by the Kremlin.

Last month, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin put the expected decline in GDP at eight percent or slightly less, following earlier official forecasts that it would shrink 8.5 percent. The Russian economy, which is largely based on the export of oil, gas and other commodities, was badly hit by the global financial crisis after years of enjoying strong growth.

Medvedev said the anticipated 7.5 percent decline was "very serious" and admitted that the government had been surprised at how severely Russia had been hit by the crisis."The real damage to our economy was far greater than anything predicted by ourselves, the World Bank and other expert organisations," Medvedev said to a news Channel.