Japan Building Projection: Fiscal Year 2017

On July 26, Japan’s Research Institute of Construction and Economy and the Economic Research Association released “Outlook of Construction Investment According to Construction Economy Model”, said Japan Lumber Journal October 15.

In that report, the organizations predict Japan housing starts in fiscal 2017 (from April 2017 to March 2018) to decrease 1.3 per cent compared with the previous fiscal year, to 962,000 units, and those in fiscal 2018 to be the same amount (962,000 units) as the year before.

As well, the Japan Forest Agency’s second annual meeting for wood demand and supply 2017 projected a slight decline in demand for the second half of the year, as well as a reduction in domestic log supply due to repeated heavy rain, according to Japan Lumber Reports October 20.

Japan Building and Wood Supply-Demand: Fiscal-Year 2017

In the “Outlook of Construction Investment According to Construction Economy Model” report, released by Japan’s Research Institute of Construction and Economy and the Economic Research Association in July, the organizations predict housing starts in fiscal 2017 (from April 2017 to March 2018) to decrease 1.3 per cent compared with the previous fiscal year to 962,000 units, and those in fiscal 2018 to be the same amount (962,000 units) as the year before, said Japan Lumber Journal October 15.

They expect housing starts of owner-occupied houses and built-for-sale houses will grow in fiscal 2017, because the interest rates of housing loans are low thanks to the government’s negative interest rate policy. On the other hand, they expect rental houses to drop because the momentum of new construction starts aiming at reducing inheritance tax will slow down.

Japan Housing Starts: August 2017

SOURCE: Japan Lumber Reports

As for fiscal 2018, the report expects housing starts will be higher than the estimate for the previous fiscal year, because rental houses and built-for- sale single family houses will remain brisk owing to the low interest rates and, in addition, rash demand is expected before the consumption tax increase which is scheduled in October 2019, said the Journal.

Japan Wood Needs for Public Building Projects

SOURCE: Japan Lumber Reports

Japan’s central government has calculated total need of 49,919 cubic metres of wood for public buildings and 191,401 cubic metres for public engineering works, explained the Japan Lumber Reports Monday.

For the public engineering works, Hokkaido Prefect will use approximately 50 per cent of the total demand, mostly for maintenance of coast lines and wind and sand barriers.

In the cities, most of the wood use for public building projects like wooden boardwalks and other uses in parks.