Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Putin Gets His Wish: Moscow Now Talking with US Alone about Fate of Ukraine

Paul
Goble

Staunton, January 19 – One of the
aspects of the latest upsurge in US-Russian diplomatic exchanges about Ukraine
that has not attracted much attention as it should but that may prove to be the
most important at least as far as Vladimir Putin is concerned is this: Moscow
is now talking about the Ukraine’s fate not in a format where Ukraine is a part
but in one where it is not.

From Putin’s perspective, Minsk was
always a problem. Putin was never been pleased to be treated as the head of a
regional European power rather than as a counterpart to the United States. And he
never really welcomed Ukraine’s participation in those talks. In his view, oft
expressed, the two great powers should decide and then impose their views on
Kyiv.

Consequently, whatever comes of the
expanded contacts between Moscow and Washington on Ukraine, Putin will see this
burst of activity not as the defeat some are suggesting, a reflection of the
weakened condition of his country given sanctions, but rather as a victory, because
he has succeeded in getting the US to accept his vision of how the world works.

And that has consequences not only
for what Putin will do in the future but also for the future of Ukraine, for
US-European relations, and last but far from least Ukraine, especially if as
some have suggested there is now “Ukraine fatigue” in both Washington and other
Western capitals and the West may be increasingly willing to make concessions
it shouldn’t.

It has long been a principle of the
countries in between the core of the European Union and the Russian Federation
that there should be “nothing about us without us,” that is, there should be no
negotiations about them without their participation.And that is a principle Putin clearly does not
like or accept.

Now, for the time being, the Kremlin
leader has gotten his way.Minsk for all
that was and is wrong with it at least maintained the principle that if Ukraine’s
fate was going to be discussed, it should be present at the table.But now, Putin has found a way to change
that, counting on the desire of the US for a breakthrough it can claim credit to
help him out.