No. 1 At The Box Office? Four Reasons Why It Doesn't Matter

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was No. 1 at the box office this past weekend. But a No. 1 ranking means less about whether a movie will be profitable â and more about a fleeting cultural moment.

James Fisher
/ Warner Bros. Pictures

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Originally published on December 17, 2012 4:19 pm

This weekend, millions of Americans trekked across Middle Earth with Bilbo Baggins. The result? The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey was No. 1 at the North American box office. It joins the list of other films that ranked No. 1 one their opening weekends, such as Underworld Awakening, Paranormal Activity 4 and Batman.

But here's the thing: The weekend battle at the box office doesn't necessarily decide the war in Hollywood, says Edward J. Epstein, author of The Hollywood Economist. Epstein says to be skeptical of what you read in Hollywood rags.

"By giving a number every Sunday — 'The number one box office movie' — it creates the illusion that there is news about Hollywood," he says.

So why isn't it really news when a film ranks No. 1 on opening weekend? First reason: The race is rigged.

"It's already predetermined because of the size of the marketing campaign," Epstein says, "[or] because it has the basic requisites of Hollywood — a happy ending, action, a minimum of dialogue so that they can show it in Asia."

And foreign markets are key. Reason No. 2 why being top at the box office isn't all it's cracked up to be is that overseas tickets sales aren't taken into account. A majority of The Dark Knight Rises' revenue came from beyond our borders.

The third reason not to pay too much attention to the rankings is that even if a movie isn't No. 1, it can still make money. Take Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom, for example. It was No. 16 on opening weekend. But there was no need for panic — the movie took in a steady amount of cash over the summer.

It's likely that Moonrise Kingdom will make money for years to come through long-term royalties. That brings us to reason No. 4 why winning opening weekend isn't news: Only a fraction of a film's total gross comes from opening weekend. In fact, you can be No. 1 on opening weekend and never make it out of the red.

Remember the movie New Years Eve? No? It opened at No. 1 around this time last year — and then took a nosedive.

So if the No. 1 movie isn't newsworthy or a sure moneymaker, what in fact is a No. 1 blockbuster?

According to University of Southern California Professor of Critical Studies Todd Boyd, it's a moment for the masses to share.

"[True blockbusters] are like the circus," Boyd says. "You know, they're like some huge event that for many people is an option for them to say that 'I participated in something that a lot of other people also participated in,' and this allows them to be defined as part of a group."

On Thursday night, Mona Sharaf, 16, waited with friend for hours outside of the Uptown Theater in Washington, D.C., to see the first showing of The Hobbit at midnight.

"It's kind of the experience," Sharaf says. "People are dressed up, and it's a whole room of people who are just as excited about the film as you are, so it's a cool energy and it's exciting."

The scale of a movie like The Hobbit -- the excitement it brings — only happens a few weekends a year, Epstein says.

"You have six studios, so they each pick the weekends they want, and if there's a conflict they sort it out one way or another," he says.

Last weekend, The Hobbit opened in more than 4,000 theaters nationwide. This adventure shows no signs of slowing down, so it could sit at No. 1 next week, too.

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DAVID GREENE, HOST:

"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" was number one at the North American box office this weekend. It made close to $85 million, less than expected but still a pretty huge take.

But as NPR's Sami Yenigun reports, being number one the first week out does not guarantee that a movie is going to do well in the long run.

YENIGUN: "The Hobbit" joins other number ones, like "Underworld Awakening," "Paranormal Activity 4," and "Batman."

(SOUNDBITE OF MOVIE, "THE DARK KNIGHT RISES")

YENIGUN: Here's the thing. The weekend battle at the box office doesn't necessarily decide the war in Hollywood. Edward Jay Epstein is author of "The Hollywood Economist." He says don't believe the hype.

EDWARD JAY EPSTEIN: By giving a number, the number one box office movie, it creates the illusion that there is news about Hollywood.

YENIGUN: All right, let's take a look at why number one on opening weekend means less than it seems. First reason: the race is rigged.

EPSTEIN: It's already predetermined because of the size of the marketing campaign, because it has the basic requisites of Hollywood: a happy ending, action, a minimum of dialogue, so that they could show it in Asia.

YENIGUN: And foreign markets are key. Another reason being top at the box office isn't all it's cracked up to be is that overseas ticket sales are not taken into account.

The third reason - winning the weekend means less than you think - is that a film can open way out of the top 10 and still turn a profit. Take Wes Anderson's "Moonrise Kingdom," for example. It was number 16 on opening weekend.

(SOUNDBITE OF MOVIE, "MOONRISE KINGDOM")

YENIGUN: There's no need for panic. The movie took in a steady amount of cash over the summer. And here is reason number four winning opening weekend isn't news. Only a fraction of a film's revenue comes from opening weekend. Studios hope they'll be selling DVDs and lunchboxes for years to come. In fact, you can be number one and never make it out of the red.

(SOUNDBITE OF MOVIE, "NEW YEAR'S EVE")

YENIGUN: Remember that movie "New Year's Eve"? No? Well, it opened number one around this time last year and took a nosedive.

(SOUNDBITE OF MOVIE, "NEW YEAR'S EVE")

YENIGUN: So if the number one movie isn't newsworthy, or a sure money maker, what is a number one blockbuster?

USC's professor of critical studies, Todd Boyd, says it's a moment for the masses to share.

TODD BOYD: They're like the circus, some huge event that becomes, I think, for many people an option for them to say that I participated in something that a lot of other people also participated in. And this allows them to be defined as part of a group.

YENIGUN: Sixteen-year-old Mona Sharaf is part of a group that's been waiting hours outside of the Uptown Theater in D.C. She's here to see the first showing of "The Hobbit" at midnight.

MONA SHARAF: It's kind of the experience. People are dressed up. There's a whole room of people that are just as excited as you are. So it's kind of like cool energy.

YENIGUN: The scale of a movie like "The Hobbit," the excitement it brings, only happens a few weekends a year, says Edward J. Epstein.

EPSTEIN: You have six studios, so they each picked weekends they want. And if there's a conflict, they sort it out one way or another.

YENIGUN: This past weekend, "The Hobbit" opened in over 4,000 theaters nationwide. And it shows no signs of slowing down. "The Hobbit" could sit at number one next weekend too.