Saturday, October 1, 2011

NBA 2K12 Shooting Guard Ratings + Changes

Shooting guard ratings have always been a weak point for 2K Sports as their formula is generally broken. Teams value shooting and defense from this position, while 2K seems to think it is ball handling ability (which is why many PGs in the league rate even higher as a SG than they do as a PG). As such, many starting players end up with lower ratings than the players coming off the bench behind them.

The 4th best SG in the league has never even been to an all-star game. Another year of Iguodala being absurdly overrated (nevermind the fact that he didn't even play SG last year). You can say that about Stephen Jackson too, as he is ridiculously overrated for a player who can't score the ball efficiently at all. No other SG in the top 10 approaches anything nearly as bad as Jackson's annual 40-42% shooting. Tyreke Evans had a nightmare season and while this was partially due to injury, I don't think anyone would take him over the #11 player.

Kevin Martin is one of the league's best scorers, significantly more efficient than Jackson, Monta, Iguodala, Joe Johnson, and Eric Gordon. Why he trails these players by 3-6 points is anyone's guess. Martin may not be the world's strongest defender, but neither is Monta Ellis.

Shooting guard is an interesting position in that many of the top players are sixth men (SEVEN of the top twenty to be exact). That said, not all of these players are accurately rated.

Brandon Roy's career quickly turned into a tragic train wreck, and he is no longer the best SG on his own team. Roy had a big game against Dallas but was invisible the rest of the series. This is not a player who is the 12th best at his position anymore.

Jamal Crawford regressed from his career best 2010, when he was named sixth man of the year. Nobody is taking him over Jason Terry ever again.

O.J. Mayo was awful this season and has not lived up to the potential 2K thought he had AT ALL. His mediocre athleticism means he isn't a great finisher at the basket, and defensively he is nowhere close to Tony Allen's (who definitely should be on the top 20 based on last season's performance).

As with the other sixth men, Ben Gordon did not have a good year and looks like a shell of his former self. He is far more likely to score 3 points than he is 30. The Bulls correctly deduced that he was a one-trick pony and while not re-signing him in 2009 was unpopular, it ultimately gave the Bulls the cap space needed in 2010 to build a deep team in free agency.

Dahntay Jones has barely played over the last few years but that is hardly his fault. Indiana has chosen not to use him in favor of 3pt shooters like Mike Dunleavy, and Jones always performs as expected when he is called upon. That said, he is really only a role player and he rated too high even when he was being used properly. He is basically Wesley Matthews without a jumper.

I consider it pretty laughable that Evan Turner had a worse season than Landry Fields, but also acknowledge that Turner still has a much higher ceiling. Fields won't get much better than what he is now, while Turner is just biding time until an Iguodala trade.

Another year of Leandro Barbosa as the Raptors' top rated player. DeMar DeRozan isn't exactly an all-around force, but Barbosa hasn't exactly played all that well of late either.

Beaubois is listed at SG because he started next to Kidd late in the year before getting hurt again. He should be moved to PG since the Mavs have like 6 SGs on the team. His rating will drop appropriately to a Barea-like level (by the way, can we stop pretending Barea is all that much better than Beaubois? He's really not).

Roger Mason did nothing all year for the Knicks and is rated higher than Bill Walker, who he played behind, legit rotation players like Fernandez/Miller/Rush/Redick and players who started for their teams like Morrow/Belinelli.

Aside from the fact that Garrett Temple is a PG (where he rates lower) it's really a bit laughable that he is on par witth the aforementioned players as a SG. Broken formula much?

10 players who barely played in the NBA this season. The only one who was a rotation player was Marquis Daniels (before injury), and he is the lowest rated of the bunch. These ratings are especially poor when you consider....

Jodie Meeks is not even a top 70 SG in the league. Meeks saved Philadelphia's season when he entered their starting lineup. Yet he isn't even on Jerry "Radio Show" Stackhouse's level. Kyle Korver and Mike Dunleavy are right behind him and there isn't a soul in the world who would take anyone in the likewise the #72 and in the league and there isn't a soul in the world who would take the 61-70 bracket over them.

Kobe's mid-range rating has been discussed to death already but here's a recap. He only hit 38% of his 16-23 ft shots. Close rating is half of mid-range game (recall that this rating didn't even exist until a few years ago). Kobe's heralded post game (those fadeaways, etc) occur in the Close range. His 3pt% has declined 4% over the last 4 years. His range is declining as his health worsens. That's life. You will notice that Kobe EASILY has the best close rating among other SGs. The next closest SG in the top ten is 15 points away.

Another sticking point for fans has been the decrease of Ginobili's mid-range game. Manu shot 36% in his limited attempts and only shot 31% in similarly limited attempts in 2010. He is not a mid-range player and never has been. Drives and threes have always been his game. He is still the #3 SG in the league which is really all that matters.

As I mentioned prior, Iguodala should be a SF, but doesn't deserve such a high rating at either position. This has little to do with his shot rating changes though, which were all deserved. It is worth noting that Iguodala is one of the players that 100% doesn't have any ratings changed aside from his shot ratings. His 2 point drop indicated formula change since he otherwise would have dropped only 1 point in 2K11. This is most likely due to Iguodala's low "Close" rating, and probably not helped by his low FT rating (another rating I speculate is slightly more important).

Jackson shot 36% from mid-range and enjoys a 1 point edge over Joe Johnson. Manu Ginobili also shot 36%, but Jackson also took twice as many shots as he did. I'm not really following this whole Close/Inside rating either. Inside is allegedly "At Rim" + "3-9 Feet" which leaves Close to "10-15 Feet". However Jackson shot 48% from 10-15, a full 20% better than Iguodala (in a similar amount of attempts) yet both players have a 73 rating, This leads me to think Close ALSO factors in the 3-9 foot shot, just as Inside does. Of course, that still means Iguodala is way overrate since he likewise shot 28% from 3-9 feet (please note the similarities between Iggy's 3-9 and 10-15 and tell me 3-9 feet shouldn't count toward Close rating instead of Inside).

Monta Ellis shot 38% from mid and has an 82 rating. Rather than point to this as evidence that Kobe is underrated, it's more likely that Monta is overrated. What you haven't noticed yet is that Kobe's 78 mid-range is actually the highest we've seen so far until Monta. Monta's overall rating dropped the most which probably has a bit to do with the increased importance of Close rating.

Gordon shot 38% from mid-range and is rated 10 points worse than Kobe. Kobe fans need to stop crying effective immediately. It is a bit ludicrous that these players are fluctuating all over the place despite 2K's alleged focus on stats.

Ray shot 46% from mid-range and I see no reason why Monta should be within 2 points of him. Monta should certainly drop down to Kobe's level if we're going to be using Kobe's rating as a base (which I think 2K has done so far since he still maintains an edge from 16-23 feet on all the other SGs.

Tyreke shot 33% from mid-range. One can make an argument for Ginobili's 36% deserving a higher rating, but Tyreke also took twice as many attempts as Ginobili. Also, Tyreke only shot 25% from 3-9 feet AND 10-15 feet (again, coincidence, i think not), which really doesn't do much to explain how he ended up with 72 close rating.
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As with the point guards, changes were relatively incremental and had as much to do with formula changes as any. 2K's statistical implementation was spotty at best, however, and these players will need to be reviewed on a case by case basis to see how accurate they really are. At the very least, we've seen that going by the stats, Kobe Bryant deserves no greater than 82 on his mid-range rating.

Nogster here. What about the raise in the 3pt attribute Rashidi. I find it awful. Most of these players are being horribly overrated in this attribute. This just entices an overabundance in 3pt shooting.This scale has to be lowered back to 2k11's for realism's sake.

So with that and with 2k's four zone system something needs to be added together. Initially I thought as you did, to add (at rim and 3-9) needed to be together for inside. But after looking at 2k's zone system it doesn't quite work out too good as there are too many inbetweens in their zone locations.

In real life the paint is 8 ft wide from the center of the goal outwards. Which is pretty close to 9 ft. The free throw line is 19ft from the out of bounds line in real life, while 2k's system for close goes all the way to the ft line. So there are too many inconsistencies with the 2k zone system and real life data points.

Close would extend out to 19 ft as that is how far the FT line is from the out of bounds line in real life. Granted the close range is shorter on the sides in the game but this would still lead to inconsistencies with shots from the ft line.

Either way there is going to be a smudging point as the data from hoopdata does not exactly correspond with 2k's system.

What's important about the My Player map is that it perfectly fits the NBA Hotspots map. So, then you can see how the Hoopdata numbers compare to the NBA Hotspots numbers. Here's an example:

My method gets you 354-577 for Inside. Pretty close to 341-546. Your method underestimates Inside attempts by 176 (mine overestimates it by 31). Your Close method overestimates by 81 (mine underestimates it by 55).

My method gets 112-232 for Inside (again very close to the Hotspot). For Barea, your method does better for Close (underestimating by 7 vs. underestimating by 25). However, you're giving up a lot of accuracy on Inside (underestimating by 49 vs. overestimating by 12).

The best thing I can think to do is use the aggregate data for the entire league and figure out how to best combine the ranges. So, Inside might be 100% At Rim and 50% 3'-9', while Close might be 50% 3'-9' and 100% 10'-15'. That's just hypothetically speaking, but I think it could be done without too much difficulty.

EDIT: I started looking at a way to match Hoopdata to Hotspots. Based on some early analyses (using five teams from the 09-10 season), it looks like you can most closely match Inside by doing 100% At Rim + 75% 3'-9'. Close is best matched by 25% 3'-9' + 100% 10'-15' + 10% 16'-23'. Oddly, 90% of 16'-23' very closely matches the Mid range numbers.

With all of that... you can see that mid is alot farther than what most of you guys are 'thinking' (in the game). Kobe at 78 for mid is fine, if his close is >85 than he will be beast on the block. Also when you factor in SOD and SIT as well as Post Shot he is going to be Kobe.

Kobe is not known for consistently knocking down a 18-20 footer all the time. Please show me Kobe, pulling up consistently from 20 feet and dropping them like Dirk or Ray Ray. Please do.

The problem with the 2k ratings are not the ratings themselves but how they determine their ratings. Some years 2k has not even touched some players while at the same time some players get overhauled. That is the main problem.

I didnt have the issue of low % 3pt shooting in 2k11. I dont play online though and thats where the majority of complaints about the % came from. I just dont see how most players can have a higher 3pt rating than their other shot ratings when they are not regarded as 3pt shooters. it entices the gamer to approach the use of the players as different to how they really play. IE: paul has an elite 3pt rating in 2k12. better than his mid or close. why play him like paul when you can play him like tim hardaway. Just because Paul is an effecient 3pt shooter in reality. doesnt make him a feared and prolific 3pt shooter which 2k12 has rated him to be.thats just one example and the crux of my issue with the scale raise.

The game will tell us whether the scale works or not. In general an 86 mid-range shot has a much better chance of going in than an 86 3pt shot.

Players will probably find out that Paul isn't really the best player to bomb threes with because...

A. He is small and can be blocked easily, which means he needs a pick to get open. As the primary ball handler he will rarely be uncontested at the start of possessions.B. Using a pick or Isoing requires shooting off the dribble which decreases the accuracy.C. Every three Paul takes is a P/R or postup that David West doesn't get.D. Wouldn't one be just better off driving with Paul and kicking to a wide open open Belinelli or Ariza?

Chris Paul COULD play like Tim Hardaway if he wanted to, but it wouldn't be in the best interests of the team.