The Insider is a political and business bulletin about Zimbabwe, edited by Charles Rukuni. Founded in 1990, it was a printed 12-page subscription only newsletter until 2003 when Zimbabwe's hyper-inflation made it impossible to continue printing.

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US asked if MDC was going to be swallowed by ZANU-PF like ZAPU

When the three key political parties, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change signed a memorandum of understanding to pave the way for negotiations before South African President Thabo Mbeki it appears the United States embassy’s greatest fear was that the MDC might be swallowed by ZANU-PF like it had done to the Zimbabwe African people’s Union, 20 years earlier.

This emerged after a meeting between embassy officials and the secretary general of the smaller faction of the MDC, Welshman Ncube, on 18 July 2008.

Ncube was a bit pessimistic about the pending negotiations and saw three possible outcomes:

Mugabe leaves government and the MDC leads a transitional government based on the March 27 elections. This is the outcome favoured by the MDC, but Ncube said the ZANU-PF succession plan is not settled and Mugabe will not leave until it is. There is presently insufficient internal opposition in ZANU-PF to force the issue.

Mugabe stays as a ceremonial president and the MDC assumes executive power. Both of these options are unacceptable to ZANU-PF, according to Ncube, because the military, Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono, and others in ZANU-PF are terrified of surrendering power, and will not willingly let go.

A Kenyan-style model where each party has executive power.

United States embassy officials asked Ncube whether the MDC, in the process of negotiations, could be swallowed by ZANU-PF as was ZAPU in the 1987 Unity Accord.

He argued the situation was not repeatable. In the 1980s, 20 000 to 30 000 people were killed by ZANU-PF and the world turned a blind eye.

Now, said Ncube, the situation was much less catastrophic—only about 115 people had been killed-yet the international community was watching and engaged.

The Insider is a political and business bulletin about Zimbabwe, edited by Charles Rukuni. Founded in 1990, it was a printed 12-page subscription only newsletter until 2003 when Zimbabwe's hyper-inflation made it impossible to continue printing.