want to seeafiscalcliffdeal.ifitcutstheheck out of all kind of programs, then you can have a deal that is actually a real drag on the recovery as well. maybe not a recession, but a slower year than we otherwise would and slow growth. again, there's two percentage points in the payroll tax scheduled to increase on january 1. if you look at how negotiations are going, it looks like it's going to happen. the typical family's taxes by $1,000 over the course of a year. >> the final one, we are talking debt ceiling. you think the fiscal cliff thing is bad for the economy. you wait and see if they can't get the debt ceiling worked out. >> right. it's one thing to go over the fiscal cliff. that would be bad. we don't want to it happen. a recession may happen. it would be unfortunate. it's different than the u.s. defaulting on the debt. you know, we saw that back in august, 2011, we saw the downgrade of the credit rating. just by having the threat of not approving the debt ceiling increase and the possibility of default. it comes around again at the end of february, beginning of mar