In many ways, 2009 will be like 2008 - only more so. Current trends will continue to be important; shaping schedules and characterising commissioning. Enthusiasm among commissioners for personality-led documentaries and authored series such as Stephen Fry in America and Niall Ferguson's Ascent of Money shows no sign of subsiding. Similarly, the emphasis within lifestyle shows will continue to shift away from property programmes that view houses as investments - an acquisitive attitude that seems old-fashioned in recessionary times - and towards shows predicated on houses being homes.

There will be more of what we could characterise as Thrift TV, such as Five's It Pays to Watch and Gok Wan's Fashion Fix. And there are also likely to be more troubleshooters a la Gordon Ramsay, Mary Portas and Ruth Watson descending, like guardian angels with MBAs, on ailing businesses. Goodness knows that there will be plenty of those about - ITV and Channel 4, for a start.

But the biggest development of 2009 will be the escalation of the battle between drama and entertainment. The likes of The X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing and I'm a Celebrity provide drama all of their own, not to mention popular spin-offs, tabloid frenzies and ample water-cooler conversation - and all for a fraction of the cost of drama. If a show such as Britain's Got Talent can get 9 million at 9pm on ITV on a Wednesday, what is the point of Rock Rivals which managed, at most, 3.9 million?

More recently, BBC1's Spooks, Apparitions and Survivors were all floored by the thundering juggernaut of I'm a Celebrity (though it's arguable that the last two were also hindered by their own not inconsiderable flaws). As money becomes scarce, ratings will become more important.

Channel 4 seems to have all but given up on returning drama series, cutting even Shameless's run, because the reward simply doesn't justify the outlay. If you can attract awards and plaudits with occasional singles, such as The Shooting of Thomas Hurndall, or serials such as The Devil's Whore (truncated though it was), why bother looking for the next No Angels or Teachers?

Shiny-floor shows are cheaper to produce, quicker to turn around, less embarrassing to axe if they don't work, and easier to sell if they do. Drama finds itself under siege from light entertainment - and factual entertainment and anything else that's cheaper, which is basically everything - like never before.

Gone are the days when an indie could turn up at a broadcaster with a project and expect the entire cost to be covered by the channel. As Jane Tranter, the outgoing BBC head of fiction, has repeatedly pointed out, co-production, global and otherwise, is a way forward. As well as hastening the demise of the six-parter, which is more difficult to sell abroad than a 13-part series, the exploration of ideas that, as Tranter puts it, are "highly co-producible" seems to mean an increasing reliance on adaptations of well-known books and re-imagining of old dramas and stories - from Robin Hood through Merlin to Survivors and The Day of the Triffids. Where does that leave new, original ideas?

The casting pool from which dramas are cast will continue to shrink, if you can imagine such a thing. Having finished his first run in Spooks, Richard Armitage reappears in Robin Hood while Rupert Penry-Jones has no sooner caught his breath from BBC1's The 39 Steps than he takes the lead in Whitechapel on ITV1. Landing a part in Doctor Who remains a surefire way to energise your career; since her stint as Martha Jones, Freema Agyeman has notched up appearances in Little Dorrit and Survivors and will shortly be seen in the 13-part Law & Order: UK-ITV1 and Kudos's spin-off from Dick Wolf's mighty American franchise. A series that perhaps embodies the future of British TV drama, in 2009 and beyond.

With Britain hunkering down for a recession, we'll be watching television for comfort, for warmth, for charm, for strong and quick emotional hits. From Britain's Got Talent and The Apprentice, to Gavin & Stacey and Spooks, the shows that succeed will be in possession of these characteristics - charisma, confidence, cosiness - in abundance.

Industry opinion

We are at the start of a crucial year for British broadcasting. My priority is urgent action to ensure sustainable funding for high-quality public service content. As online and broadcasting content increasingly converge, discussion about what's acceptable is ever more relevant. 2009 will see the pace of digital switchover accelerate significantly. Sport on TV will receive a thorough airing as the Davies review of listed sports events does its work.

With the economy moving further into recession next year there'll be two major consequences: more screen time for Robert Peston and broadcasters minutely analysing their schedules to ensure every last drop of value is being squeezed out. Programme budget cuts mean only the BBC will have pockets deep enough to consistently deliver big drama. The rest of us will look to the internet and the likes of Kate Modern and Sofia's Diary for new ways to make drama for less money. As for Five, we may be the wayward child of British TV but we're one with an affectionate uncle in owner RTL, giving us the opportunity to take risks.

Kip Meekchair, Broadband Stakeholders' Group

Expect 2009 to be characterised by the further development of trends visible in 2008 that don't require lots of additional investment from the service providers. We'll use our broadband more intensively. More applications and services will be accessed online. iPlayer or its lookalikes will proliferate. We'll be buying more memory and storage facilities. Crowd-sourcing the use of online to mobilise large groups of people towards collective action (think the Obama fund-raising success) will grow. There will be some negatives and the telecoms infrastructure may creak a bit as broadband demand increases.

Julian Bellamyhead of Channel 4Financially, 2009 looks set to be the most challenging year in C4's history. Programme budgets face a minimum further reduction next year of £25m, maybe more. Unless we're given certainty on future funding these cuts will get deeper and it will become harder to protect our core public service programmes. But there is also an opportunity to underline our distinctiveness. Despite financial restraints, it will be even more important for us to demonstrate our cultural value by seeking out risky, new and alternative ideas.