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Saturday, March 31, 2012

- Rain, Thunder tonight, a little snow possible inland- Chilly temperatures stick around through next week- After tonight, no decent rain event in sight again

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12:15 AM Storm Updates: The thunderstorm near Bergen County, NJ is slightly weakening, although it is still capable of producing heavy rain and thunder. Meanwhile, another strong thunderstorm is forming near southern Morris county, and will affect Hudson county and Manhattan within the next 1/2 to 3/4 hour.

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Mostly sunny skies were observed across the area today as a high pressure briefly moved through, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s from NYC and north/west and the lower to mid 50s in Long Island and southern CT. Clouds have increased towards the afternoon and evening, however, as a weak low pressure is approaching the region from the west. The latest radar, posted to the left, shows a line of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms affecting northern NJ and SE NY, spreading east towards Long Island and southern CT. This storm will continue to affect the area through the morning hours, with even some snow in the interior parts of the area.

Behind this storm, the chilly pattern is expected to continue with no big rain event in sight. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s and the low 60s through most of next week, with some showers possible in the middle of the week, but the current pattern does not appear to break through the 7-10 day range.

Tonight - Tomorrow: Rain, Some Snow Inland

The storm moving through the area tonight was modeled yesterday and earlier today to bring accumulating snow in southern CT and SE NY; in the 5-Day Forecast, I put a risk of snow mixing with the rain in southern CT, but with little to no accumulations. There is not much precipitation in the cold sector of the storm, and the source of cold air is also relatively weak for a snow event in late March. With the latest observations, the storm may end up slightly drier than some models are showing, with less snow over the region.

Periods of light to moderate rain will continue through at least 7-9 AM on Saturday, with some wet snow possibly mixing in interior Connecticut and parts of Orange County, NY, but with no accumulations expected in the area. Overall, at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected to fall tonight, which is somewhat beneficial as it may be enough to prevent this month from ending up as the driest March on record, but it still does not eliminate concerns about a dry pattern lasting through the spring. Mainly cloudy skies and areas of drizzle are expected to last afterwards with skies possibly clearing a little towards the late afternoon and evening hours; high temperatures will end up below average, reaching the lower to mid 40s in southern CT and Long Island and the mid to upper 40s from NYC and further north/west.

Sunday - Next Week: Still Chilly, Little Rain

Temperatures will slightly warm up on Sunday as a SW wind briefly returns, with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s in Long Island/southern CT and the mid to upper 50s for most of northern NJ, SE NY, and NYC. During the day on Sunday, a strong warm surge will affect the central US, with 90 degrees possibly spreading as far north as South Dakota; the warm spell was originally expected to reach the area, but instead will fail to do so as a low pressure dropping out of Canada will bring a cold front through on Sunday night, keeping the chilly air mass in place over the region. Some showers are expected on Sunday night with up to 1/4 inch for most places. Mostly sunny skies are expected to return on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area.

By Tuesday, the models differences increase regarding the handling of the set up; the NAM/DGEX show rain on Wednesday followed by a little cold and a much warmer air mass next weekend, the GFS completely suppresses the storm and drops more cold air into the region through next weekend, the CMC has some rain on Wednesday with chilly temperatures afterwards, and the ECM has rain on Tuesday night. At this time, I am expecting some rain to fall around Wednesday, but any rain again appears to be light with generally up to 1/4 inch possible. Temperatures may warm up into the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and/or Wednesday near NYC, but will otherwise remain in the 50s, with temperatures returning back into the mid 50s range across parts of the area by the end of next week with dry conditions returning. The outlook for next weekend and beyond is still uncertain, although the longer range models are showing the potential for a warm up towards the end of next weekend into early next week. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

Friday, March 30, 2012

As rain associated with a low pressure is moving through the area, a heavy thunderstorm is currently located near northern Morris county and is moving east, reaching East Passaic, Bergen counties in NJ and Bronx/Westchester in NY within the next 1/2 to 1 hour. Heavy rain and lightning are expected with this storm, and additionally there have been reports of small hail with this storm.

I was unable to post a discussion on 3/29, although the 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the entire area. The blog will be updated again on the afternoon of Friday, 3/30.

Brief forecast overview:

Mostly sunny skies are expected today with highs in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area. A low pressure approaches Friday night with moderate precipitation, up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch, but it will also be cold enough to allow for snow to fall later overnight into Saturday morning in southern CT, SE NY, and parts of NW NJ. Most of the snow should be non-accumulating, but the best risk for light accumulations is in Connecticut and SE NY away from the coast. For the rest of the area, a very cold rain will fall from Friday night into Saturday noon, with isolated showers sticking around through Saturday afternoon. With the rain and cloud cover, much colder temperatures are expected on Saturday, with highs only reaching the lower 40s in southern CT and lower to mid 40s across the rest of the area. Friday afternoon's update will include more details on the snow event for interior areas, as well as a snow map.

Partly cloudy skies will continue into Sunday, but as mentioned as a possibility with Wednesday's update, a strong back door cold front will move through, but from the latest indications is likely to be even stronger than previously thought, completely blocking the warmth and thus the bigger mid week storm from reaching the area early-mid next week. Temperatures are expected to remain around the mid 50s to low 60s through Monday and Tuesday, with some rain likely on Tuesday and Wednesday but with no washout expected. Colder temperatures will return again by the late week and possibly into next weekend as well.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

- Breezy on Thursday, chilly Friday- Rain returns early on Saturday- Brief warm up early next week, 70+ degrees- Colder again later next week

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Today's Observations:Wednesday, March 28

As a low pressure tracked to the north of the area today, temperatures stayed chilly in the first half of the day ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms around 12-2 PM, which produced locally heavy thunderstorms for parts of the area amounting to less than 1/4 inch, although a strong thunderstorm did affect southwestern CT, where small hail was observed. Another round of isolated thunderstorms affected parts of the area, especially near NYC, Long Island and southern CT this evening.

Temperatures today stayed chilly in the eastern half of the area, but western areas quickly warmed up as expected late this afternoon, with highs reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s north and west of NYC, mid to upper 60s in NYC, and the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of Long Island and southern CT with the exception of the eastern areas which stayed in the low 50s.

The temperature outlook over the next week will continue to alternate between warm and cool temperatures; after a return to chilly temperatures late this week, a storm on Saturday morning with light rain will keep high temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the area. This storm will be followed by a short warm up early next week, with temperatures potentially passing 70 degrees again on Monday, followed by another cold front on Tuesday and a return to colder temperatures.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the low pressure moving out of the region, breezy conditions will develop for tomorrow with NW winds gusting up to 30-40 mph. Partly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area, possibly a bit colder towards the NW parts of the area.

Friday - Saturday: Chilly, Some Rain

Mostly sunny skies are expected for Friday with light winds and highs reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area for highs. The next low pressure will approach on Friday night, especially after 10 PM-12 AM; some models showed snow for the area today, with the NAM runs showing heavy snow north of NYC and the SREF also showing some snow. The NAM has a history this winter of showing solutions that are too far south with too much precipitation falling in the cold sector, and this bias is likely repeating itself again in this case, as the rest of the models are either further north or warmer. For now, I am siding with the slightly further north scenarios, with occasional light rain from Friday night through about 12 PM on Saturday, with any snowstorm potential limited to interior New England. High temperatures are still slightly uncertain depending on the exact intensity and timing of the rain, but it appears at this time that high temperatures will likely reach at least the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, possibly ending up a bit warmer should the drier scenario verify. More information on this storm will be posted with Thursday's update.

Sunday - Next Week: Warmer, Then Colder Again

As the storm exits the region, southwest winds are likely to develop on Sunday with partly sunny skies and highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Uncertainty returns for Monday, when some models show a widespread warm air mass covering the region, while other models show a back door cold front dropping through and preventing the warmth from fully reaching the area. The model guidance has failed to settle on a single solution, although given typical spring trends, I am siding with a scenario where the back door cold fronts affects the area on Monday and Monday night, which would likely bring temperatures into the 70s for at least the western parts of the area while the north/eastern parts of the area end up slightly cooler. The influence from the potential back door cold front is still uncertain, and should the front fail to reach the area, which is a possibility, temperatures could easily surge to near 80 degrees in northern NJ, although at this time I am favoring the cooler outcome. It is just as possible, if not more likely that the back door cold front may have more influence than currently modeled, and may almost, if not completely scale back the warmth, keeping temperatures on Monday and Tuesday stuck in the 60s.

The next cold front is likely to approach on Tuesday, when additional showers are possible with thunderstorms possible again for parts of the region, although this storm does not appear to be a significant rain maker. Behind this low pressure, colder temperatures are once again expected to return, and while the specific details are uncertain due to the time range, temperatures are likely to return into the 50s for the second half of next week. Stay tuned for more information on next week's outlook.

Blog Notices:
- Daily updates will resume starting today in the 5-Day Forecast page.
- The Severe Weather page will also be updated daily, highlighting any strong thunderstorm risk across the region.

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Yesterday's Observations:Monday, March 26

As I was unable to post an update yesterday, I added a review of yesterday's observations into tonight's discussion. Mostly to partly sunny skies were observed across the area as a cold front moved through; temperatures peaked in the morning hours for most of the area before dropping steadily by the afternoon as a much colder air mass quickly came through. High temperatures peaked in the lower to mid 50s across the area, with the warmest temperatures near southern CT and Long Island. Windy conditions were observed as well, with most of the area observing 35-45 mph gusts.

Today's Observations:Tuesday, March 27

With a strong yet short lasting trough in place, today brought chilly high temperatures but cold overnight lows, dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area, a noticeable change from just a week ago when temperatures reached the 70s across most of the area. Highs were colder than average as well, reaching the lower 50s across most of the area, with a couple of places failing to reach the 50 degree mark. Mainly sunny skies were observed today with weaker winds compared to those of yesterday.

A warmer air mass will briefly move through the region tomorrow, resulting in much warmer temperatures along with a risk of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, although it may not rain in the entire area. With a slightly colder pattern in place, however, temperatures will quickly cool back down into the 50s again through the end of the week and into the weekend with a possible storm on Saturday and/or Sunday, followed by another brief warm up potential towards the middle of next week.

A low pressure will move through the region tomorrow, tracking not too far north of the area. Although temperatures will remain chilly tomorrow morning, with the storm tracking to the north the area will enter the warm sector for at least a couple of hours. A rise in temperatures is expected towards the mid afternoon hours, with highs taking place towards the evening with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s from NYC and further north/west, possibly getting into the lower 70s west of NYC, and the mid 50s to lower 60s in Long Island and southern CT. Depending on the possible rain in the middle of the afternoon, should the line of storms discussed in more details below end up stronger and more widespread, temperatures would end up slightly colder than those mentioned above.

With the approaching low pressure, two lines of rain and thunderstorms could move through the area. The first possibility of rain is around 2-4 PM, when a line of locally heavy thunderstorms will approach the area. Parts of the area may stay mainly dry, although most of the area is likely to see at the very least some rain, even if it's light, with locally heavy thunderstorms possible. Once temperatures warm up in the late afternoon and evening, another weaker line of thunderstorms is possible around 7-9 PM, focusing around the immediate NYC area. Overall, most of the area is still expected to end up with up to 1/4 inch of rain, with some areas possibly failing to see more than a drizzle.

Thursday - Next Week: Chilly, Winter Attempts To Return

The type of pattern typically required to produce snow in the winter, involving at least some ridging near Greenland with cold air displaced near the region, has failed to set up for any prolonged period of time this season. Now that winter is over, the pattern is gradually becoming more winter-like, with a couple of snow potentials in New England expected over the next 2 weeks along with cooler temperatures returning into NYC again. Thursday and Friday will be dry with highs cooling back down into the lower to mid 50s across most of the area, possibly reaching the upper 50s near NYC on Thursday.

By Saturday, the next low pressure will approach the region. Currently, the GFS model is the weakest with this development, while the rest of the models show a stronger storm with more rain. Although the blocking may suppress the storm, at this time I sided with the majority of the models, with rain likely to fall on Saturday, although it is still not certain that it does rain, especially should the GFS, the current outlier, verify with a much weaker low pressure. With the suppression, it appears at this time that this storm should track at least near or south of NYC; while it is not cold enough for snow to fall in NYC, the location on the storm on some models, such as the NAM and ECM, actually favors accumulating snow over parts of southern New England away from the coast.

The forecast for Saturday does not have a high confidence level yet with these differences, although it does appear that should it rain, it would be a cold rain, with high temperatures in the 40s to possibly the low 50s at most, with snow possible in interior parts of New England. For tonight's 5-Day Forecast, I put a likely mention of rain, not a certain forecast, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, although this will likely change with tomorrow's update depending on any developments regarding the intensity and placement of the low pressure. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend outlook.

Going into next week, most models show another brief warm up around the early-mid week with another low pressure moving through the region by the middle of next week. While the mid week storm has a warmer look to it, and is expected to bring more rain into the area, it is possible that colder temperatures may once again return behind the storm into the end of next week. More information will be posted on the long range as details become clearer.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

- Winter's cold makes one last comeback- Cold Monday night, lows drop into 20s for most- Temperatures remain near average most of this week- Concerns for drought conditions into the long range

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Today's Observations:

Cloudy skies continued across the area today with isolated showers observed, making today the first rain event for parts of the area since March 13, and the first widespread light rain event since March 8. Only light rain amounts fell today, generally up to 0.1 inch and locally up to 1/4 inch, with the area still well below the average March rainfall. Temperatures also ended up a few degrees colder than expected, with highs reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s north and west of NYC, and the upper 40s to lower 50s across Long Island and southern CT.

Throughout this entire so-called winter, the large scale pattern has been stuck in place with minor changes at times that failed to bring cold/snow into the area, keeping the region warmer than average with almost no snow. Now that winter has ended, the pattern is starting to change again, and the pattern developing is shaping up to be a colder one. Widespread lows in the 20s are expected on Monday night, with temperatures staying in the 50s to possibly low 60s for highs throughout this week. Despite the change to average temperatures instead of warmer-much warmer than average temperatures, the aspect of the pattern that still hasn't changed is the precipitation; with today's rain event producing very little rain, NYC is on track to record its driest or second driest March on record. The entire area, including nearly half of the Northeast, is already covered by a growing area of "D0", or abnormally dry, conditions according to the US Drought Monitor, and while there is still plenty of time for the dry pattern to change, should this dry pattern continue, drought conditions may become a concern later on in the season.

Monday - Tuesday: Cold Returns, Freeze Expected

With a much colder air mass starting to move into the region, partly sunny skies are expected on Monday with windy conditions, with gusts up to 45 mph expected across the area. Temperatures are expected to remain nearly steady through the early afternoon in the lower to mid 40s inland and the upper 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the area, with temperatures dropping by the late afternoon.

The coldest temperatures will be on Monday night with clearing skies and a cold air mass in place. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s for most places north and west of NYC, with mid to upper 20s in NYC, its north/west suburbs, and closer to the coast. It is not out of the question that far NW NJ/SE NY drop below 20 degrees. With an unusually early start to the growing season this year, the cold will put some vegetation at risk.

Mainly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with the cold air mass in place, with temperatures expected to remain colder than average. Highs will reach the mid 40s inland and the upper 40s across the rest of the area, getting close to 50 degrees near NYC.

Wednesday - Beyond: Still Chilly, Dry

The next low pressure will approach the area for Wednesday into Thursday, with cloudy skies expected again. Although the low pressure will track to the north of the area, the warmer temperatures will struggle to reach the area due to the cold still in place, with a brief warm up into the mid to upper 50s expected towards the evening hours west of NYC, possibly getting to 60 degrees near NYC. In fact, with the cold air mass ahead of the storm, parts of interior New England will see some light snow at the start of the storm before changing over to rain. For the NYC area, the storm will be in the form of scattered showers, with at least 0.1 inch of rain expected, possibly up to 1/4 inch or a little higher especially north of NYC. Scattered showers will continue into Wednesday night, with highs on Thursday reaching the mid to upper 50s across most of the area, getting close to 60 degrees again near NYC.

Temperatures for Friday and the weekend are expected to remain in the mid 50s for most of the area, reaching the upper 50s near the immediate NYC area, which is near the average temperatures for this time of the year. Some uncertainty returns into the forecast towards the Sunday-Monday time frame, when a low pressure is modeled to approach the region. Should the latest models end up correct with their handling of the cold air mass for the late week, this storm would not be likely to track too far north of the area; some models currently keep this suppressed, and those that do show the storm affecting the area show a cold rain, along with snow in parts of the interior Northeast. The smaller parts of the set up cannot be nailed down yet as this is still in the medium range, but the overall idea at this time is that a storm could affect the area around this time frame. Stay tuned for more information for the late weekend and early week outlook.

- Some light rain tonight, cloudy again on Sunday- Windy on Monday; much colder on Tuesday- Slightly warmer ending to next week with light rain possible- No significant warm spell or big rain event in sight through medium range

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Today's Overview:

With the cutoff low moving into the area, much colder temperatures were observed today compared to the record warmth observed until yesterday. Cloud cover was mainly cloudy across the area, but the coverage area of the rain was more isolated than expected with some breaks in the cloud cover, which helped to bring temperatures very slightly warmer than the forecast; highs reached the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s in Long Island and southern CT.

The storm is ending up further south and slightly weaker than modeled, keeping almost all of the rain to the north and south of the area, although scattered showers will affect the area tonight, with up to 1/4 inch expected, and some more isolated showers are possible on Sunday. With the storm moving out, however, some changes in the pattern will continue to take place, with much colder temperatures returning by Monday night and Tuesday. There does not appear to be any big warmth in sight, however, starting what may be a colder and dry pattern for the area through parts of early April.

Forecast Overview:

Tomorrow: Mainly cloudy skies will continue through tomorrow with isolated showers possible, but no widespread rain again. Highs are expected to be similar to those of today, a little warmer west of NYC and colder east of NYC.

Monday - Wednesday: The coldest air mass since early March will move into the region, bringing below average temperatures. Windy conditions are expected on Monday with gusts up to 40 mph possible, with highs reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and the lower to upper 50s across the rest of the area. With clearing skies, temperatures will quickly drop overnight, and are likely to reach the 20s in northern NJ, SE NY, and southern CT. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, with increased cloud cover on Wednesday along with highs returning back into the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of the area and the possibility of a few showers.

Wednesday Night - Beyond: The next low pressure to move through the region will be on Wednesday night into Thursday, but once again will feature very little rain. Although there is no official drought yet, especially considering that last year was one of the wettest on record, the change in the pattern has been quite extreme as this year so far has been very dry; March is almost over and parts of the area have yet to even reach 1/4 inch of rain for the monthly total. There does not appear to be any wet pattern developing through the medium range, and while the longer range is still uncertain, should this dry pattern continue through the rest of the spring, drought may become a concern. Additional updates will be posted occasionally regarding the dry pattern and any possibilities of a wetter pattern developing.

Behind this low pressure, another weak trough will move into the area for the late week, with highs staying in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area. While this is not a strong, sustained cold pattern, which also does not appear to be supportive enough of any late season snow potentials reaching the area, this pattern is expected to support temperatures staying closer to average, along with drier than average conditions. There are mixed signals regarding the rest of the spring and summer, but this current pattern is likely to last through at least early April, if not beyond.

As a back door cold front moved through today, the last record warm day was observed across the region, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs reaching the lower to mid 70s across most of the area with mid to upper 70s in northern NJ, NYC, and parts of Long Island. Temperatures near the northern parts of the area were close to the forecast, but northern NJ, NYC and SW Long Island ended up a few degrees warmer than expected.

As a cutoff low in the central US approaches, a cloudy and colder weekend is expected, with scattered showers resulting in at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain across parts of the area. As the storm moves offshore, a relatively strong trough compared to the other cool spells this winter will drop into the region for the first half of next week, bringing highs down into the 50s and lows possibly into the upper 20s inland. Temperatures will slightly warm up for the second half of next week, but no additional significant warm spell is in sight through the medium range.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the cutoff low moving into the region, cloudy skies are expected tomorrow with SE winds and a colder air mass, resulting in much colder temperatures compared to those of today. Highs are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further north/west, possibly getting close to 65 degrees in parts of northern NJ, with mid 50s to 60 degrees across most of Long Island and southern CT. Isolated showers are expected tomorrow, mostly towards the evening hours, but only light rain amounts are expected, up to 1/4 inch in places where rain does fall.

Sunday - Next Week: Cold Returns One More Time

The cutoff low will continue to produce scattered showers amounting up to 1/4 inch, locally 1/2 inch, throughout the day on Sunday and into parts of Sunday night with highs again in the 50s to lower 60s, although by Monday the storm will move offshore and intensify as it moves towards Newfoundland. This will allow for a stronger trough to drop into the region, with partly sunny skies and windy conditions expected on Monday, with gusts up to 40 mph, if not locally higher, possible. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s across most of the area.

With the trough moving in, temperatures will quickly cool down on Monday night with lows in the lower to upper 30s across the area; the interior parts of the area may even drop into the upper 20s for lows. Mainly sunny skies are expected on Tuesday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area, possibly near the mid 40s inland, with another cold night expected. Temperatures will slightly warm up on Wednesday as the cold air mass weakens.

The next weak storm will approach the region on late Wednesday into Thursday, once again bringing light rain but not enough to end the dry pattern. There is expected to be enough suppression to prevent temperatures from spiking into the 60s on Thursday, with a more likely scenario including highs in the 50s once again. Depending on the development of the storm and the cold air ahead of it, parts of northern New England may even see snow. Temperatures will slightly cool down by the late week, but although this is not a sustained cold pattern, it also does not appear that sustained warmer-much warmer than average temperatures are on the way through the medium range, with highs likely staying in the 50s and 60s. More updates will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

After a round of dense fog last night and this morning, cloud cover became partly sunny as temperatures quickly went up, setting up what became yet another record-extending warm day for the region. As the peak of the unusually warm air mass moved through the region, today ended up as the warmest day for most of the area, with high temperatures surging into the upper 70s for many locations north and west of NYC, peaking at 79 degrees in Teterboro and Newark in New Jersey, with highs reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s in most of Long Island and southern CT. Four record highs were officially broken across the area today, with Newark ending up just shy of its record high of 80 degrees, set in 1938. JFK Airport was also 2 degrees below its record high. Today's temperatures ended up nearly identical to yesterday's forecast, with very minor differences such as in southern Long Island.

Tomorrow will be the last very warm day for a while, as a back door cold front moves through, bringing temperatures back towards where they should be around this time of the year, in the 50s and 60s through the weekend and next week, with some rain expected this weekend. As some changes take place in the pattern, however, colder than average temperatures will return for parts of next week, and in direct contrast to this week, when unusually warm weather took place with plants and trees growing, the potential is there for sub-freezing temperatures in the interior parts of the area by next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the back door cold front moving through, what's left of the warmth will affect the area tomorrow, with partly cloudy skies, likely mostly cloudy/cloudy early in the day closer to the coast. Some fog is expected towards Long Island and CT, but will not be as widespread as the fog last night and this morning. Temperatures are currently expected to warm up into the lower to mid 70s across most of the area with upper 60s in parts of Long Island/S CT and mid 70s in some areas west and SW of NYC.

Weekend Outlook: Colder And Rainy

The cutoff low that has been stuck over the central US for the last few days will slowly drift east, reaching the region by Saturday with cloudy skies and isolated showers. SE winds are expected to continue, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and the lower to upper 50s for the eastern parts of the area. The cutoff low will track to the south of the area, keeping the heaviest rain to the south as well, but occasional showers will continue throughout the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. At this time, it appears that at least 1/2 inch of rain could fall in general, but amounts could end up locally higher, closer to 1 inch, while other isolated areas do not see much rain during the weekend. Sunday will also be slightly cooler with the more widespread rain, with highs in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area, reaching the upper 50s in parts of northern NJ.

Next Week: Colder; Sub-32 Temperatures Possible Inland

Once the cutoff low moves offshore, temperatures may briefly warm up, with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s expected on Monday, along with windy conditions, with gusts up to 30-35, possibly 40 mph, possible. During that time, however, the cutoff low is likely to phase and move towards Newfoundland, possibly stalling there with the help of the minor changes in the pattern, such as a much weaker cold air mass over Greenland. In that scenario, a strong trough will drop into the region, also affecting NYC but with the coldest temperatures focused over New England. There is some uncertainty with the exact temperatures, and the latest models are likely overestimating the intensity of the cold air mass as they often tend to do during cold spells, but near to possibly below average temperatures are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days are expected to bring mostly sunny skies with highs likely in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most places, getting up to 55 degrees closer to NYC.

It is possible that the models may trend weaker with the phasing, resulting in a weaker cool spell and more warmth into later next week. Assuming that the storm does stall close to Newfoundland, the next approaching storm on Thursday would weaken and be forced to track ESE through the Northeast, resulting in perhaps 1-2 days of 60 degree weather at most followed by a return to highs in the 50s. Light rain is also likely to fall on Thursday, but once again, no significant rain amounts are expected, keeping the dry pattern in place. There are still signals showing up that a cooler pattern may continue into early April, but this does not appear to be any sustained stronger cold pattern, and while the return of snow is possible, if not likely, in the higher elevations of New England, this pattern does not appear to be the right one for a late season snowstorm in the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

Once again, temperatures were unseasonably warm across the region today, extending the record warmth that has affected the region over the last week and will continue through Friday. Temperatures today were colder than expected across the northern and western parts of the area; cloud cover was expected to clear up by the late morning to early afternoon hours, but the cloud cover never cleared; cloudy skies covered most of the area throughout the day, even becoming more widespread in the afternoon hours. As a result, temperatures ended up in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the entire area. In comparison, central and northern parts of New England, even close to the Canadian border, got up to nearly 85 degrees, which easily shattered records across the region.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is still likely to be the warmest day of this warm spell at least according to the latest indications. The widespread fog building in tonight is currently likely to burn off by at least 10-11 AM, with temperatures quickly warming up afterwards, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s north and west of NYC (parts of N NJ and SE NY in the map to the left may pass 80 degrees), mid to upper 70s in NYC, and upper 60s to mid 70s across the rest of the area. As today's forecast was too warm due to more clouds than expected, tomorrow's forecast also depends on the cloud cover; should the clouds persist beyond 12 PM, highs will likely struggle to pass 75 degrees across most of the area.

Forecast Overview:

- Friday will slightly cool down but remain unseasonably mild, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s west and SW of NYC and the upper 60s to mid 70s across the rest of the area. A back door cold front may result in isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon hours, which will bring in a colder air mass for the weekend, keeping highs in the 50s for most of, if not all of the area for Saturday and Sunday.

- There is still some uncertainty with the timing and location of the approaching cutoff low, but wherever it does end up, the potential is there for up to or possibly slightly over 1 inch of rain. At this time, I am expecting moderate periods of rain for Saturday night into Sunday with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain possible, but the forecast is still subject to some changes.

- Temperatures next week will remain much colder than those of this week but still not quite colder than average, likely staying in the 50s to lower 60s for highs and the 30s to lower 40s for lows. The next storm is possible towards next Wednesday/Thursday, with some rain possible and temperatures possibly warming up into the 60s for a day or two.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Today was yet another unseasonably warm day across the area and the region, with morning fog observed in most areas becoming partly sunny by the afternoon. The warmest temperatures in the region were once again located over New England, where some locations observed their 4th consecutive 80+ degree day, almost unheard of during this time of the year. Temperatures ended up close to the forecast, reaching the lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC with lower 70s in NYC and mid to upper 60s in southern CT. Temperatures in Long Island, however, ended up warmer than expected; the onshore wind was originally expected to prevent coastal areas from reaching the upper 60s-low 70s range today, yet most of Long Island still managed to get close to, if not over the 70 degree mark.

Temperatures are expected to continue to warm up through Thursday, and it is not out of the question that parts of the area pass 80 degrees north of NYC. A back door cold front will move through on Friday, bringing an end to the May-like conditions and bringing back a more typical March pattern, with rain for the weekend and highs returning into the 50s and 60s for next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

There is some uncertainty with tomorrow's outlook regarding how far south the warm air mass will extend. The warmest temperatures will once again stay in New England, although the models have been shifting around, with some keeping highs in the upper 60s near NYC and other models showing highs near the upper 70s. Other than cloudy skies in the morning and areas of fog, partly sunny skies are expected by the afternoon with SSE winds. I am currently expecting tomorrow's temperatures to end up similar to those of today, with lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC and mid 60s to lower 70s in most of Long Island and southern CT, with lower 60s near the immediate coast. Temperatures in parts of northern NJ and SE NY are likely to reach and/or slightly pass 75 degrees, but interior Connecticut has the highest chance of passing 75 degrees.

Forecast Overview:

- Thursday is still expected to be the warmest day; there is still some uncertainty, however, regarding the southern extent of the warm air mass, which will determine how warm temperatures end up. Currently, most models show highs in the mid 70s, with the NAM showing upper 70s. Considering that the NAM so far had the better handle on temperatures, I am leaning towards the warmer solutions, expecting highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s north and west of NYC and the lower to upper 70s across the rest of the area, but the temperature forecast is still subject to minor changes.

- A back door cold front will move through on Friday, bringing isolated showers for the late afternoon hours. As a result, the warmest temperatures will take place early on in the day, with highs likely to reach the mid to upper 70s west of NYC and the lower to mid 70s across the rest of the area.

- Temperatures are expected to cool down into the 50s and 60s by next weekend and early next week, but the exact temperatures depend on an approaching cutoff low which the models do not have a very good handle on yet. At this time, occasional showers are shown for Saturday and Sunday, but it is a reasonable possibility that the storm could end up wetter with amounts perhaps getting up to 1 inch, potentially even higher in the warmer case scenario. In this case, temperatures would remain in the 50s across the area.

- Uncertainty increases for next week, but it appears that temperatures may slightly warm up again closer to the upper 60s towards the middle of next week. Another weak cool down may be possible for late next week.

Today continued the unseasonably warm conditions as a part of the record breaking warm pattern the entire eastern half of the US is experiencing, with the warmest temperatures observed so far today. Although for yesterday's forecast, I went warmer than most of the model guidance by showing 75+ degrees for parts of northern NJ, temperatures still ended up warmer than expected, peaking in the upper 70s in NW NJ/SE NY, mid to upper 70s in the north/west suburbs of NYC, lower to mid 70s in NYC, and the mid to upper 60s across most of Long Island and southern CT with slightly cooler temperatures near the coast.

Today's temperatures were once again record breaking in parts of the area, such as Newark with a record high of 77 degrees, which is 25 degrees warmer than the average high temperature. The warmest temperature observed in the area today was 79 degrees in Sussex, NJ and in Montgomery, NY. In addition to the unusual warmth, scattered strong thunderstorms in parts of the region added to the early summer-like conditions, with scattered strong storms developing in parts of NY, Vermont and NW NJ, producing locally heavy rain.

With the latest trends, tomorrow is expected to end up warmer than the original forecast again, with highs likely reaching the lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC. The warmth will intensify going into the late week, and although there is still uncertainty with the exact high temperature, both Thursday and Friday will bring highs well into the 70s, with either day possibly ending up above 80 degrees.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

The model guidance originally kept high temperatures in the 60s for tomorrow, although the latest models are coming in warmer, showing highs in the 70s. Considering the model performance so far during this warm spell to underestimate the warmth, along with much less influence from clouds and any back door cold front, I am going slightly warmer than the model guidance for Tuesday's outlook.

Partly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, with areas of fog in the morning especially in the eastern half of the area. Along with SE winds, high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s across northern NJ and SE NY, getting near 75 degrees in parts of northern NJ but unlikely to exceed 75 degrees for most places; lower 70s in NYC, and lower to upper 60s in Long Island and southern CT, with the immediate coast mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures in eastern and southern Long Island may end up slightly warmer than the graphic above shows.

Wednesday - Friday: Peak Of Warm Spell

Late Week Set Up: Over the last day, there have been noticeable changes with the cutoff low in the central US and the storm in Canada. The backdoor cold front in Canada reasonably trended weaker, as the GFS yesterday was most likely too strong in trying to create a colder pattern, but predicting cutoff lows is more difficult, and the latest trend is towards a slower movement of the warm air mass, meaning that the warm air mass will be slightly delayed. As a result, temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday have been adjusted a little lower as the warmest temperatures will end up over New England. There is still some slight uncertainty with the exact timing of the warm air mass, however, which will determine exactly how warm Thursday and Friday end up. Currently, the warmest air mass is modeled to move through overnight, which means that the warmest potential temperatures never reach the area, ending up in New England on Thursday and in the Mid Atlantic on Friday. A change of only a few hours, however, would make one of these two days warmer; Thursday should the warmth trend faster, and Friday should it trend slower. The part of the forecast with the highest confidence is that Thursday night will be mild, with lows failing to drop much below 60 degrees in NYC.

Forecast for NYC Area: As previously mentioned, the latest forecast has been adjusted to show colder temperatures for Wednesday, with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC and the mid 60s to lower 70s across the rest of the area. For now, I sided with Thursday ending up slightly warmer than Friday; highs on Thursday are likely to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across northern NJ and SE NY with mid to upper 70s in NYC and upper 60s to mid 70s across most of Long Island/southern CT. As previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty for Thursday's temperatures, as the warmest air mass is currently modeled to end up over central New England, where places such as Massachusetts may even pass 85 degrees. Should the warmth trend faster, parts of the area could get close to 85 degrees. Regardless of whether temperatures pass 80 degrees or not, Thursday easily looks to be yet another record breaking warm day across the region.

A weak back door cold front will approach on Friday, resulting in partly cloudy skies. With the slow trend, however, the warm air mass will still be in place, keeping temperatures warm once again. At this time, it appears that temperatures could peak in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area with lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern CT due to a different wind direction, although the temperature forecast is still subject to change; if Thursday ends up warmer, Friday will likely be a bit cooler than expected, and in the warmer case scenario temperatures may get close to 80 degrees again. Stay tuned for more updates on the late week warmth.

Saturday - Next Week:

The cutoff low in the central US is expected to move towards the region, although the exact timing is still uncertain. For now, I am leaning with possible rain around Sunday and/or Monday, although if it does even rain, it doesn't appear to be any heavy rainstorm at least at this time, and with the timing still subject to change, Saturday could perhaps bring some rain as well. Temperatures will finally become much more March-like, with highs returning again into the 50s and 60s, which is still a little warmer than average but nowhere as much as this week is. While cooler temperatures may be possible towards the second half of next week, it is not out of the question that one day may get close to 70 degrees.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

- Mild yet much warmer than average for the early week- Very warm Wednesday/Thursday; 80+ degrees possible- Cooler temperatures return by next weekend- Another round of much shorter lasting warmth next week possible

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With the second full day of the unusually strong and widespread warm air mass reflecting down to warm temperatures across the region, unlike the late week when a back door cold front kept temperatures much colder, slightly warmer temperatures were observed today, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in northern NJ and SE NY, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Cloudy skies were observed this morning; most areas already saw sunny skies by noon, although northeastern NJ was the last to break out of the cloud cover across the area, doing so by the early afternoon. Despite today's temperatures ending up much warmer than average, even warmer temperatures were observed to the north; parts of New Hampshire even reached 80 degrees today, places that during warm spells would typically be colder than NYC.

After another unseasonably warm day tomorrow, temperatures will slightly cool down on Tuesday but remain much warmer than average. As a weak cool front begins to approach the region, however, the peak of the warm spell will affect the area on Wednesday and Thursday, when widespread mid to upper 70s are expected away from the coast, with places from NYC and north/west possibly passing the 80 degree mark on Thursday. The cold front will bring colder temperatures for Friday and next weekend, but no strong and sustained cold is expected.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

**The graphic below shows an area of 75-80 degrees north of NYC; not all places in this zone are expected to reach 75 degrees, however.**

With slightly warmer 850mb temperatures, temperatures will warm up across the area tomorrow (Monday) once again. Mainly cloudy skies and areas of fog are expected through about 10 AM tomorrow, with skies becoming partly sunny from NYC and further north/west by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies closer to the coast. With south winds expected, high temperatures will warm up into the lower to mid 70s in northern NJ and SE NY, passing 75 degrees in parts of northern NJ, upper 60s to lower 70s in NYC, and lower to upper 60s in most of Long Island and southern CT, with upper 50s near the immediate coast.

Tuesday - Thursday: Very Warm; 80-85 Degrees Possible

With the exception of Friday, Tuesday will be the coldest day out of the Saturday-Thursday warmth period, ending up relatively chilly compared to the rest of the region but still noticeably warmer than average. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with the possibility of isolated showers, which along with east winds, will keep temperatures colder. There is some uncertainty with exactly how cold temperatures end up, as the GFS has highs near 70 degrees in NYC, the NAM has NYC barely touching 60 degrees, and the ECM has highs in the lower 60s. Considering the onshore wind, I am leaning towards the colder NAM, expecting highs in the mid 60s in most of northern NJ and SE NY, upper 50s to mid 60s in the immediate NYC area, and mid to upper 50s across most of Long Island and southern CT, with coastal areas in the lower 50s. It is still possible that temperatures may end up slightly warmer.

By Wednesday and Thursday, with winds shifting towards the southwest and the warmer air mass starting to move in, the much warmer temperatures will finally reach the area. As mentioned early in the post, parts of New Hampshire reached 80 degrees today with mainly sunny skies, dry conditions and 850mb temperatures near 12-14 degrees Celsius. With similar conditions moving into the area as the warm air mass sinks southeast, as long as there are no major changes in the set up, there is a better chance that temperatures would also reach and/or pass 80 degrees in parts of the area with the warmest air mass on Thursday. The 12z GFS run was posted to the left, from the NCEP Model Page (direct link to 12z GFS). This map, in addition to showing just how widespread the warm air mass is, which is unusual for this time of the year, more typical of May, it also shows widespread 850mb temperatures above 10C across the area ahead of the cold front, which along with WSW winds and mainly sunny skies, would easily be supportive of 80-85 degrees away from the coast.

The peak of this warm spell will begin on Wednesday, with mainly cloudy skies and perhaps some fog early in the day, especially closer to the coast, with otherwise partly sunny skies. High temperatures from NYC and further north/west are currently likely to reach the mid to upper 70s, with 60s to lower 70s likely further east towards most of Long Island and southern CT. Thursday, as previously mentioned, is expected to be the warmest day; highs are expected to reach the 70s across most of the area, again excluding parts of Long Island and southern CT, especially closer to the southern coasts, and assuming that no major change in the set up takes place, high temperatures are even expected to reach the lower 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Stay tuned for more updates on the late week warmth.

Friday - Next Week: Slightly Colder, But Not Cold

Unlike yesterday, when it appeared that Friday could be the warmest day, a stronger back door cold front is now apparently more likely to move through as a strong low pressure stalls near Newfoundland, which often translates to a trough over the northeastern US. As with most other storms under this year's dry pattern, very little, if any rain is expected with this cold front, with dry conditions lasting through Friday. Due to the trough over the region, the cutoff low will also remain stuck well to the west of the area, and next weekend is likely to stay dry as well. There is still some uncertainty with the intensity of the back door cold front and as a result the temperatures, but high temperatures for Friday through Sunday are likely to return into the 60s, possibly near 70 degrees on Friday, which is much colder than this upcoming week but still warmer than average. Although uncertainty significantly increases going into next week due to the time range, it is a possibility that a much shorter lasting round of warmth affects the area for maybe 1-2 days next week, with the possibility of high temperatures returning to 70 degrees but not ending up anywhere near as warm as this week. More information on next week's outlook will be posted over the next couple of days.

- More clouds, mild, scattered showers for Sunday-Tuesday- More sunshine, warmth return for late next week- Slight cool down but no significant cold next weekend

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With the cutoff low from the late week far away from the region, today brought warmer temperatures across the area, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in NW NJ/SE NY, lower to mid 60s in NE NJ and SE NY, upper 50s to lower 60s in NYC, and the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Mostly sunny skies were observed north and west of NYC, with observations showing more clouds towards Long Island and southern CT.

Clouds will continue to spread across the area tonight with developing fog by Sunday morning, although cloud cover will clear for most places by the late morning hours before increasing again overnight. Isolated showers and cloud cover on Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures slightly cooler but still well above average, with the peak of the warmth expected for the second half of next week, when temperatures are expected to reach the mid 70s north and west of NYC, possibly getting up to 80 degrees in the warmer case scenario.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

After the clouds and fog begin to clear on Sunday morning, SSW/south winds are expected to develop. This will allow the western half of the area to quickly warm up, while the eastern half of the area sees colder temperatures and more cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower 70s across most of northern NJ and SE NY, upper 60s to lower 70s in the north/west suburbs of NYC, lower to upper 60s in NYC, and mid 50s to lower 60s across most of Long Island/southern CT except for the immediate coast, which is expected to see highs in the lower 50s.

Next Week: Slowly Warming Up

Temperatures are expected to continue to warm up on Monday, reaching the lower to mid 70s inland, mid 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 50s to mid 60s across most of Long Island/southern CT. Scattered showers will approach the area, however, and partly cloudy skies with isolated showers are expected. Mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and possible fog will continue through Tuesday, with colder temperatures expected on Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with how cold temperatures will be, although at this time it appears that most of, if not all of the area should fail to reach 70 degrees, with highs in the lower to mid 60s in NYC. Tuesday's forecast though is still subject to slight changes.

With the scattered showers out of the way, the scattered showers are likely to end by Tuesday night, with mostly to partly sunny skies expected between Wednesday and Friday. Due to the clearing of the cloud cover, along with the warmer air mass starting to gradually shift southeast, from the Great Lakes and northern New England towards the area, the peak of the warm spell is expected to take place in this time frame.

Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are still expected to struggle to warm up for parts of the area, especially near the coast where temperatures will likely stay in the 50s and 60s, but it appears at this time that highs are likely to reach the mid 70s north and west of NYC, especially on Thursday. In the warmer case scenario, highs may get up to 80 degrees north and west of NYC on Thursday. Depending on the timing of the approaching cutoff low, Friday appears to be the warmest day at least according to the latest models; the forecast is still subject to change, depending on any other possible cold front, but should the cutoff low be delayed enough to allow Friday to bring the warmest temperatures, highs in the mid to upper 70s would be possible north and west of NYC once again, getting up to 80 degrees in the warmer case scenario. Stay tuned for more information on the late week warmth.

Going into next weekend and beyond, model solutions begin to become increasingly different, but the ECMWF is the most exaggerated model, bringing in an extremely colder air mass with blocking which according to that model, would be enough to result in a snowstorm. The 0z ECM, however, is a complete outlier when compared with the other models, the teleconnections, and the large scale pattern, and is ruled as an outlier for the longer range. Otherwise, it appears that the cutoff low should gradually drift towards the region, possibly resulting in some showers for the weekend, but at least at this time it appears that if it does rain in the weekend, heavy rain is unlikely, and no significant cool down is expected, with temperatures likely returning into the 50s and 60s, which is still warmer than average.

The stalled front today ended up extending further southwest than originally expected, which resulted in my forecast highs for today busting too much on the warm side; unlike the expectation of highs peaking in the upper 50s to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, highs peaked in the mid to upper 50s inland (NW NJ, SE NY), upper 40s to lower 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 40s in Long Island and southern CT. There has been some uncertainty with today's temperature forecast, but the actual highs ended up following the coldest possible scenario for today.

The cooler temperatures due to the onshore flow will continue through tomorrow, although by Sunday the wind will become more from the south/SSW, resulting in temperatures gradually warming up. There is still some uncertainty regarding the full extent of the warmth, although it is likely that temperatures reach at least the mid 70s north/west of NYC towards the second half of next week, possibly closer to 80 degrees should the warmer case scenario verify.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Saturday will be slightly warmer than today, but will remain relatively chilly compared to the rest of the region, yet still warmer than average for this time of the year. Mostly cloudy skies are expected during the first half of the day with areas of fog, especially in the morning. For tomorrow's forecast, I went slightly colder than the model consensus, expecting highs to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in northern NJ/SE NY, possibly closer to 65 degrees in far western parts of the area, mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 40s to mid 50s across most of Long Island and southern CT.

Sunday - Next Week: Warming Up Slowly

The unusually large, strong and persistent ridge for this time of the year will continue to slowly expand eastward as a high pressure settles to the southeast of the area, resulting in a SSW/SW wind with temperatures slowly warming up through next week. There is still some uncertainty regarding another potential weak 500mb low which the CMC is currently the most bullish with, bringing scattered showers most of next week, and the latest 0z GFS run is not as bold with this feature, instead focusing on the warmth. Should this feature end up on the stronger side, it will keep some clouds in place through next week with temperatures much slower to warm up, struggling to reach 70 degrees until Wednesday. For tonight's forecast, I sided with a scenario that is a bit less bold with this feature, but the forecast is still subject to some changes.

Taking the above into consideration, a gradual warm up is still expected through Tuesday, with highs away from the coast reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday, lower 60s to 70 degrees on Monday, and the mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday. Some more clouds and isolated showers could be possible on Monday, but no widespread precipitation is expected. Should the showers be slightly more widespread than currently expected, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, especially on Monday, could be a couple of degrees colder than currently expected.

The peak of the warm period over the region is expected between Wednesday and Friday. Should the 500mb weak low fail to have any significant impact, temperatures would be able to warm up at least into the mid 70s north and west of NYC; although for now, I am keeping the forecast maximum in the mid 70s range, it is not out of the question that temperatures end up a little warmer. Coastal areas would still be colder due to the onshore flow, but would warm up as well compared to the early week temperatures. The uncertainty for the late week involves the 500mb low during the mid week; a stronger low than currently expected would likely keep highs in the lower to mid 70s at most. Stay tuned for more information on the warmth for next week.

Longer Range Update: A weak cold front is likely to move through either on Friday or during next weekend. Although the potential is there for a colder but not persistently cold pattern to temporarily show up later on in the long range, there is no strong cold air to follow immediately behind the cold front, and temperatures during the weekend are likely to drop into the 60s. Precipitation for next weekend, if any, is still uncertain, and depends on the timing and location of the approaching cutoff low, which the model guidance is having a lot of trouble handling with their latest runs. Stay tuned for more updates on next weekend and the longer range.

Friday, March 16, 2012

The last couple of updates mentioned that the potential was there for much warmer temperatures for next week. The latest trends, however, added a feature in the set up that disrupts the ridge, and should it verify, which is becoming increasingly likely, much bigger changes may be made to next week's outlook, where temperatures would be constantly stuck in the 60s to lower 70s with onshore winds, with perhaps one warm day at the end, instead of the original scenario where temperatures would have reached the upper 70s in NYC. Stay tuned for more information with this evening's update.

Note:The 5-Day Forecast was updated only for the immediate NYC area tonight. A full 5-Day Forecast for the entire area will be posted on Thursday afternoon.

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As a cold front moved through the area, temperatures slightly cooled down further west, but due to a WNW wind, eastern areas were much warmer today. Mainly sunny skies were observed with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in northern NJ, SE NY and NYC, with Long Island and southern CT, even near the coast, reaching the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

A back door cold front began to move through New England earlier today and is moving towards the area, which will result in more clouds and much colder temperatures for tomorrow. The chilly temperatures will gradually moderate between Friday and Tuesday of next week but not getting very warm just yet, with the gradual warming trend accompanied by some showers on Friday. There is still uncertainty going into next week, but the peak of the warmth could take place mid-late next week, and should the warmer case scenario verify, parts of the area may reach 80 degrees.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

As previously mentioned, a back door cold front moved through eastern New England earlier today, which resulted in a quick drop in temperatures and an increase in cloud cover. The colder temperatures, accompanied by mainly cloudy skies, are currently moving southwest and are expected to spread across the area after at least 2-4 AM tonight, resulting in a noticeable drop in temperatures along with an increase in cloud cover.

With a SE flow becoming established by tomorrow afternoon, much colder temperatures are expected. The cloud cover will remain stuck near the coastal areas and most of Long Island/southern CT, where cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with partly to possibly mostly cloudy skies north and west of NYC. A relatively sharp temperature gradient will set up tomorrow; highs will reach the lower 60s in far NW NJ and western Orange county, mid 50s to lower 60s across the rest of northern NJ and SE NY, lower to mid 50s in NYC, possibly a little warmer further north away from the coast, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s in most of Long Island and southern CT, with the immediate coast peaking near the mid to possibly upper 40s.
With the SE wind, temperatures are expected to begin dropping for most places as early as 2-4 PM tomorrow.

Friday - Monday: Slowly Warming Up

A weak low pressure will move through the region on Friday, once again preventing temperatures from warming up, although temperatures are expected to be warmer than those of tomorrow. There is some slight uncertainty with the forecast for Friday regarding where the temperature boundary sets up; the 12z ECM shows lower 60s in NYC, the GFS shows mid to upper 50s, and the latest NAM run suddenly went much warmer, showing mid 60s. At this time, I am leaning a little towards the cooler solutions, expecting highs to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across northern NJ, SE NY and NYC away from the coast, with Long Island, southern CT, and coastal parts of NYC reaching the lower to mid 50s, possibly upper 50s closer to NYC. The immediate coast may fail to reach 50 degrees again. Isolated showers are also expected on Friday and Friday night, with some showers perhaps locally moderate.

The weekend is expected to be mostly to partly sunny with slightly warmer temperatures, although an incoming high pressure from Canada will prevent the warmth from surging into the region at this point. High temperatures for both days are likely to reach the lower to mid 60s for northern NJ and SE NY, with upper 50s to lower 60s in NYC and mid to upper 50s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Monday's outlook is a little uncertain due to the potential for rain, although at least at this time it appears that Monday should be warmer, with mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, mid 60s in NYC, and upper 50s to lower 60s in most of Long Island/southern CT. The temperature outlook for the weekend and Monday is still subject to slight changes.

Tuesday - Friday: Peak Of Warmth Possible

With the high pressure likely to drift south of the area by Tuesday, a SSW wind direction could still limit the warmth, although temperatures are likely to begin rising on Tuesday, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s north and west of NYC, possibly in the mid 70s in the warmer case scenario, with upper 60s in NYC and lower to mid 60s in most of Long Island and southern CT. By Wednesday and Thursday, however, assuming that the high pressure is located to the south of the area to produce a SW/WSW wind, along with an unusually warm air mass for March and a large ridge in place, the warmest temperatures are likely to take place. There is still some uncertainty with the exact temperatures, which depends on the location of the high pressure and the ridge, although it does appear that temperatures may surge well into the 70s away from the coast, and in the warmer case scenario where the high pressure is south of the area with SW winds and a favorable ridge location, temperatures would be able to reach 80 degrees in parts of the area. At this time, the 80 degrees is still a potential, not a certain forecast, and it is still a possibility that a cooler outcome may verify with temperatures reaching the mid 70s at most. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for late next week and the warmth potential.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

- Colder yet still mild ending to week, 60 degrees near NYC- Some rain for Friday and possibly Saturday, otherwise dry- Peak of warmth takes place next week; 80 degrees even possible

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Ahead of a cold front approaching the area, the warmth reached its peak today for most of the area, with partly to mostly cloudy skies observed, cloudy closer to the coast, along with southwest winds. High temperatures were unusually warm for March once again, reaching the lower to mid 70s across northern NJ, SE NY, and NYC away from the coast; temperatures peaked at 76 degrees in Teterboro and Newark airports in NJ, as well as Montgomery in Orange county, NY. As typical with warm spells during spring, the eastern parts of the area were much colder than the western areas; high temperatures reached the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of Long Island, southern CT, and coastal parts of NYC, with the immediate coastal areas reaching the lower to mid 50s, which was slightly colder than expected. Although thunderstorms failed to form across the area today and are not expected to form, scattered strong thunderstorms are currently developing in east central NY and northern Massachusetts, which were within the northern boundaries of the "Isolated" thunderstorm risk issued yesterday.

Behind the cold fronts, temperatures will be colder further west tomorrow while noticeably warmer towards the eastern parts of the area, but an onshore flow will develop by Thursday and Friday, possibly Saturday, keeping colder yet still warmer than average temperatures in place. Going into next week, there is still some uncertainty with the specific details, but the potential for significant warmth is there, which in the warmest possible scenario may actually result in highs near 80 degrees near NYC.

Tomorrow's Outlook (Wednesday):

*Temperatures may end up slightly cooler in Long Island and southern CT than the graphic below indicates.*

With the cold front moving through tonight, mainly sunny skies are expected tomorrow with light NW winds. These NW winds, however, will help to spread the warmth into the eastern half of the area, and as a result, while places from NYC and further north/west will be colder, Long Island and southern Connecticut, even down to the immediate coast, will be warmer. Highs are expected to reach the mid 60s across most of the area, possibly a bit lower near the immediate coast and far NW parts of Sussex/Orange counties, although temperatures in the mid 60s should also cover most of long Island and southern CT. Warmer temperatures in the upper 60s are expected in northern NJ, NYC and parts of SE NY, with lower 70s likely in parts of NE NJ as well.

Thursday - Saturday: More Clouds, Rain, Colder

The more widespread warmth tomorrow will be short lasting as a back door cold front continues to push through, with an onshore flow developing for Thursday and Friday with SE/ESE winds expected. As a result, temperatures on Thursday are likely to reach the lower to mid 60s in northern NJ and SE NY, upper 50s to lower 60s near NYC, and the lower to mid 50s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut, near the upper 50s closer to NYC and near the upper 40s in the immediate coast and eastern areas. Although these temperatures are a part of a cool down and are noticeably colder than those of today, Thursday will still end up warmer than average, only showing the magnitude of this warm spell where even a colder air mass is still warmer than average. The models are also suggesting that a more widespread sea breeze could develop, meaning that high temperatures except for interior NJ and SE NY could peak earlier in the day, with temperatures dropping into the 50s and 40s during the rest of the afternoon and evening hours.

The next cutoff low pressure will move towards the region on Friday, with the warm sector getting closer but still staying southwest of the area. There is uncertainty with the extent of the warmth on Friday, although at this time, I am expecting high temperatures to end up in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area, with lower 50s towards parts of Long Island and southern CT and lower 60s towards parts of northern NJ. Due to the weak low pressure, occasional showers are expected throughout the day, with scattered showers lasting into the overnight hours. Isolated showers are still possible on Saturday with otherwise partly cloudy skies and highs slightly warming up into the lower to mid 60s except for Long Island and southern CT, where temperatures will remain in the 50s.

Sunday - Next Week: Strong Warmth Likely To Return

There is some uncertainty with the forecast for Sunday and Monday, with some models delaying the warmth and others already bringing the strong warmth in by Sunday, although the CMC currently appears to be an outlier with how it handles the set up through Tuesday by stalling the Saturday storm just off the coast, preventing the stronger warmth from reaching the area even going into next week. While this solution will be monitored, for now I am siding with the rest of the model guidance with a SW flow returning by Sunday or Monday. Should this scenario verify, temperatures would gradually rise for both days, with highs in NYC reaching the mid to possibly upper 60s on Sunday and the upper 60s to possibly lower 70s on Monday.

Should the cutoff low stick around just offshore as the CMC is indicating, temperatures would remain in the 50s and 60s through Tuesday/Wednesday. While this is not as likely at this time, this possibility will be followed. Assuming that the cutoff does not stick around and ends up moving away as the rest of the models show, however, the early week will only be the beginning of a nearly week long stretch of near record breaking temperatures for this time of the year. With a high pressure to the south resulting in SW winds, temperatures away from coastal areas would warm up well into the 70s by at least Monday or Tuesday, and with the intensity of the ridge and the warm air mass, it is not out of the question that in this scenario, at least one day, if not more, between Tuesday and Friday reaches 80 degrees or more near NYC; average highs for this time of the year are still in the lower 50s for parts of the area. Again, this assumes that the cutoff low does not stick around, and while at this time that does not appear as likely, the strong warmth solution is still a potential at this time, and it is possible that a still warm but not as warm outcome verifies, keeping temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s later on next week. Stay tuned for more information on next week's warmth.

Long Range Overview: Uncertainty increases beyond next week as usually happens with the longer range, although the latest model guidance is pointing towards a colder ending to March and start of April. Although a cold and snowy pattern will not establish itself as it has failed to do so this entire winter, a somewhat colder ending to the month may be possible, although with any colder pattern, based on the latest indications it would not be accompanied by any snowstorm. More information on the longer range will be posted as details become clearer.