Hemsky will not be moved to the Kings unless Schenn is coming the other way

It doesnt matter. Schenn is a year younger than Eberle. What was Eberle doing at this time last year? Dominating the whl and winning the player of the year. Very similar.

And then Eberle took the next step in his draft+3 year. Eberle has done better in the NHL than any realistic expectations he had at the beginning of the year. As I said, I would bet on Schenn doing the same. It doesn't mean he's done it yet.

CHL Player's of the year since 2000
Eberle - Good rookie season, too soon to tell
Hodgson - injuries during development, we'll see in 5 years
Justin Azevedo - fairly good in Manchester(Any King's fan input)
Tavares - 1st overall, not comparable
Radulov - Not playing in NHL anymore but was quality while he was here
Crosby - 1st overall, not comparable
Crosby - 1st overall, not comparable
Corey Locke - Still fighting to reach the NHL
PM Bouchard - Similar to Radulov's production
Simon Gamache - Never made it
Brad Richards - Definitive 1st liner

CHL player of they year =/= definite 1st line player in the NHL especially when the award is won after the player's draft year.

Hemsky is not the right player for the OILERS to be trading for. He is the right player for the KINGS to be trading for.

Like I said, teams don't trade for players based on some "hfboards fair market value", every team values players differently. The Kings should value Hemsky higher than Schenn, the Oilers should value Schenn higher then Hemsky, so there should be room to work if egos and emotions don't get in the way.

If I look at it from a Kings perspective, it would take a lot more than Hemksy to part with Schenn. I dont think you are being honest here. Hell, Ive yet to see one King's fan that is saying yes, lets do it!

Granted they arent the gm, but if you look at Lombardi, he is the anti-Burke, and would probably be one of the least likely gm's to make a move like this.

Is it? How much do you think Hemsky or Penner would be willing to take to stay in Edmonton? Say we give a five year 25mill deal to Hemsky, and he gets hurt the next two years running and misses significant games, still think we could move him with three years at 5mill per?

He would be untradeable at that point.

Forecasting big raises for Eberle and Hall are no brainers. We already know what Horcoff makes and Penner and Hemsky are not going to stay here at the same money they are making now.

These assessments are as simple as counting your fingers. There is no guesswork or magic number fudging being done here.

What if Hall or Eberle are injured for the next two years. Do you think they will still get huge contracts? Injuries are not predictable and the question works both ways.

In all likelihood if the Oil got Schenn they would not draft a center with their first round pick this year.

I think the Oilers would still take Couturier even if they're fortunate enough to land Schenn. It's more difficult to find top 3 forwards than it is a #1, 2 or3 d'man. Oilers would be better off taking Sean, letting either Bryadon or himself grow into that 1st line center role, one of those kids is going to be better than the other and the Oilers can't afford to screw that 1st line center gig up. Having both insures they get their man. Take whats left of Hemsky,Penner and Gagner and move them for help on the blueline.

I don't really want to get into a pissing match over Couturier vs Schenn. All I know is if the Oil managed to have both those guys you're going to see a lot of trade proposals to get Gagner and Cogs off the team.

In all likelihood if the Oil got Schenn they would not draft a center with their first round pick this year.

Not really....I believe both Gags and Cogs are better suited to the Wing...

People use the ppg mark as a mark of excellence because it's easy to measure. Human's are remarkably bad at conversions and as such we choose the easiest ones. The level of a 1st line player is actually below a point per game.

Last year there were 15 players who had 82 points or more. (I use 82 because he point's out the impossibility of good players getting injured.) There are 90 forwards playing the 1st lines of NHL team's at any given time.

A PPG can be used to find the top 15 players in the game but it's unlikely you will ever be able to trade for one.

edit: A final look at this idea using this year. Of the 90 players in the top 90 scoring in the league this year, only 12(13%) of them are a point per game. About 13% of 1st line players score more than a ppg.

This is my number one pet peeve on hf. Is how people assume players will get points. In the hemsky penner arent cheap thread someone said "I see schenn more as a second line center good for 70 or 80 points" I was thinking man those are like top 10 of the nhl numbers not second line center.

Its like people calling Gagner a bust at the age of 21 or saying when is he gonna take the next step and get 70 points. He is 36th among centers in points so exactly where a second line center should be as far as production goes

If I look at it from a Kings perspective, it would take a lot more than Hemksy to part with Schenn. I dont think you are being honest here. Hell, Ive yet to see one King's fan that is saying yes, lets do it!

Granted they arent the gm, but if you look at Lombardi, he is the anti-Burke, and would probably be one of the least likely gm's to make a move like this.

If I look at it from a Kings perspective, it would take a lot more than Hemksy to part with Schenn. I dont think you are being honest here. Hell, Ive yet to see one King's fan that is saying yes, lets do it!

Granted they arent the gm, but if you look at Lombardi, he is the anti-Burke, and would probably be one of the least likely gm's to make a move like this.

This is where you're falling into the trap of hfboards overvaluing prospects, and forgetting that a GM's primary responsbility is to win hockey games.

The Kings have relatively effective depth at centre right now in the form of Handzus/Stoll. With Loktionov also in the system (and presumably keeping the first round pick to use on a centre), the Kings will also have a decent group of prospects there.

Even if Schenn becomes a very good 2nd line centre and that becomes a hole down the road, finding one isn't that difficult. Finding a top line winger to go with Kopitar obviously is. Without Hemsky, Los Angeles could easily find themselves like Columbus where they are a perennial borderline playoff team always waiting for "the next _____ to develop", and having to overpay for free agents because they're not a winning team, much like the Columbus Blue Jackets.

There's no way the Oilers can develop their prospects if there are no veterans on the team and all the prospects just get thrown straight into the fire.

I said top 9.....if all goes well....Horc will be the most expensive 4th line center in the nhl in 3 yrs

in three yrs Gags will be a 7 yr vet...Hall, Eberle and prv in there 4th seasons and hopefully Lander,pitlick,Hamilton, schenn, couturier will be in there 2nd/3rd seasons....young still bit with lots of NhL experience

I said top 9.....if all goes well....Horc will be the most expensive 4th line center in the nhl in 3 yrs

in three yrs Gags will be a 7 yr vet...Hall, Eberle and prv in there 4th seasons and hopefully Lander,pitlick,Hamilton, schenn, couturier will be in there 2nd/3rd seasons....young still bit with lots of NhL experience

For that scenario to take place that means Lander, Pitlick, Hamilton, Schenn and Couturier will all be on the team in the next one or two years, which isn't happening.