April 26, 2012 6:54am EDTApril 25, 2012 7:36pm EDTPhiladelphia's offense has fallen on hard times to start the 2012 season and the early returns indicate that their run of five straight NL East titles is in serious jeopardy.

A season ago this team won 102 games and went into the playoffs as the favorites to win the World Series. The pitching was dominant, and even though the offense had dipped, it was still good enough to get by.

And then a lot went wrong. A whole lot.

The Phillies are 9-10 and their injuries and offensive decline, combined with an improved NL East, give the feel that the end of their reign as division champs is at hand.

Falling stars

Immediately, literally, as the Phillies were bounced from the playoffs last October, the injuries started. Slugging first baseman Ryan Howard, seemingly the team’s only source of power, shredded his Achilles' tendon on the final out of the series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Phillies were hopeful during spring training that Howard would be back in May, but he’s had a number of setbacks during his recovery and he isn’t anywhere close to a return date.

Then there’s Chase Utley, the game’s best second baseman … when healthy. But that’s the problem. He hasn’t played 150 games since 2009 and a knee injury has kept him off the field through the first three weeks of this season. No one knows when Utley will return.

So, two of the team's main power sources are down, and so is one of the aces.

Cliff Lee was placed on the disabled list last week because of an oblique injury and it’s likely he could miss up to three weeks. The rotation is good enough to shoulder the burden, but the team as a whole is not. That means Lee has to get back as soon as possible, because right now pitching seems to be the team’s only chance to win.

Sickly offense

For six seasons starting in 2005, the Phillies were either the best or second-best team in the league in runs scored as Howard, Utley and Jimmy Rollins were in their primes.

But age and injury have caught up to all three players, and with the slight exception of Utley, those guys haven’t been very productive even when healthy. They are the main reason the team dropped to seventh in runs scored, slugging percentage and OPS last season.

The Phillies are tied for 12th in runs, tied for 10th in homers, 15th in OBP, 12th in slugging and 13th in OPS. The lack of runs is largely due to the absences of Howard and Utley; but in addition, Rollins, a former MVP, has lost his pop (two doubles and no homers); Placido Polanco is hitting .237 with one extra-base hit and two RBIs; and John Mayberry Jr. is hitting .200 with no walks and 14 strikeouts.

The team is also old. The average age of the lineup is 31.4. In contrast, the Atlanta Braves are 28.1, the Washington Nationals are 28.8, the New York Mets are 27.4 and the Miami Marlins are 27.9. Each of those teams is ahead of the Phillies in the standings.

The Phillies don’t have much help on the way, either. The farm system has been pillaged in trades and only Domonic Brown, who is one of the game’s top prospects, is close to major league ready, although he is hitting just .266 with a .314 OBP and .359 slugging percentage through 70 plate appearances with Class AAA Lehigh Valley.

Will they survive?

It looks like the only chance the Phillies have to win a playoff berth is through their pitching, but asking this rotation to duplicate 2011—2.86 ERA, 18 complete games, 21 shutouts, 1,064 2/3 innings and a 932-221 strikeout/walk ratio—is asking too much. Roy Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels all started at least 31 games last season, but that durability has already taken a hit with Lee’s injury. It’s foolish to expect the starters to be as durable or good as they were last season, and if you think they’ll run away with the division like they did in 2011, winning it by 13 games, you’re dead wrong.

The NL East is also improved. The Nationals have improved their pitching, the Braves can score, the Mets are no longer inept, and the Marlins will probably be able to sustain their strong pitching in their new stadium.

The Phillies aren’t buried yet, but their lack of offense is an alarming situation. If they fall into a deep hole, say seven to 10 games behind the first-place club, in the next three-week block, they can wave goodbye to a sixth consecutive division title.

They aren’t good enough to pull themselves out of that kind of canyon.