The Point Four-ward: Getting Way, Way, Way Ahead of Ourselves

1.) I caught up with fellow Truehooper Graydon Gordian earlier this week. Graydon is Editor Emeritus of the Spurs’ blog 48 Minutes of Hell and this finally-August-hot September evening was the first time we’d talked hoops since the Cavs’ Hulked-Out off-season began. Possibly because I immediately demurred to his own loyalties (“There’s no way I want any part of the Spurs, should the Cavs make the Finals this year,” said I) we strolled down Hypothetical Way, talking about the likely Western Conference contenders and how, should all of the 950,000 things that must go right for any team to dream of playing into late-June go right for the Cavs this year, each of them might match up against the wine and gold from Nor’thrn ‘Hia.

Graydon’s take on a Spurs/Cavs Finals: “If the Spurs make it to the Finals, it means the Spurs are healthy and, right now, this Cavs team doesn’t beat a Spurs team at full strength.”

Congratulations, Spurs. You are effectively in the NBA’s collective head — and deservedly so. The offensive clinic that steamrolled the Heat just over two months ago is one thing, but the Cavs will likely be sending plenty of teams to a similar clinic this year. More of the Spurs are battle tested, though, and less likely to experience any mental hiccups from going through all of this for the first time. Is there a Cavs fan out there who really wants to be the one saying, “No way a Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters or Tristan Thompson gaff in a high pressure situation costs this team key games in the 2015 Playoffs”? I didn’t think so.

The other thing the Spurs have going for them, of course, is Kawhi Leonard. In this year’s Finals, Leonard showed he is possibly as good as any wing player in the league at making LeBron James work. So, yeah, a healthy Spurs team could make for a brief 2007 Finals reunion.

It would, however, give us some great Patty Mills vs. Matthew Dellavedova run that could decide the fate of, at least, one game. So, you know, there’s that…

2.) Should the Los Angeles Clippers do the most un-Clippers-like thing in history and actually make an NBA Finals, the Cavs would find their hands similarly full.

Graydon’s take on a Clippers/Cavs Finals: “I think, if the Clippers come out, they’d have to be looked at as the favorites over the Cavs, as well.”

The Clippers do present problems. Blake Griffin is a terrible match up for Kevin Love, even if Love’s defensive intensity tightens up by a couple of belt notches this year. Anderson Varejao may be able to annoy DeAndre Jordan, but that’s kind of negated by the fact that Jordan can jump completely over Varejao, the tips of his sneakers only brushing past Andy’s bouncy locks. There’s enough athleticism between Griffin and Jordan to make things difficult on James from 18 feet and in. And then, of course, there’s Chris Paul.

Paul is often (and aptly) called surgeon, but he’s a surgeon that looks a lot more like Freddy Krueger — hands teeming with gleaming scalpels on every finger — than George Clooney (who, yes, played an ER doctor, not a surgeon … I know, I know … geez). Paul just pokes and prods a defense before opening it up and completely eviscerating it. Just like that, it’s metaphorical Cavs guts everywhere and Jordan angrily screaming at the camera after some particularly demoralizing alley has just been ooped.

What else do these first two teams have in common to make the Cavs underdogs? Why, it’s a pair of darndedly good head coaches, that’s what. While there are those — and not just Cavs fans — who think David Blatt will turn into an excellent NBA coach, the feeling is that Blatt’s first time through the league would still leave him vulnerable against two of the NBA’s best: Gregg Popovich in San Antonio and Doc Rivers in L.A.

3.) The tide starts to shift back toward the Lake Erie shore after those teams, though. Enter the other top contender to get out of the West: the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Graydon’s take on a Thunder/Cavs Finals: “Love’s ability to stretch the floor will take away a lot of what makes Serge Ibaka special on defense. LeBron and KD could just go at each other. They’d have to watch out for Russell Westbrook going into pitbull mode, but I think [the Cavs] would have a real shot to win this one.”

Despite continuing to sport two of the league’s top five players in Kevin Durant and Westbrook (and another in the top-20: Ibaka), the Thunder have been less able to fill in gaps by stuffing those gaps with money (Clippers) and, while they’ve been the critical darlings of the NBA Draft, they haven’t had Spurs-like success in digging through that haystack or the NBA reclamation project bin in recent years.

But coaching continues to be the thing keeping the Thunder’s bandwagon from ever seeing full capacity. Cavs fans would feel very secure in seeing Blatt — a veteran coach who is not short on fans of his ability — go against Scott Brooks. While the Thunder are incredibly predictable in their schemes (the unpredictability comes from the amazing talents of the players playing in those predictable schemes) Blatt will likely field a game plan with a few more wrinkles (and, no, that’s not a knock on Shawn Marion’s age).

4.) And what about the East? Well — and this is where one can get oneself into a real pickle if Cleveland’s Wet Dream Team goes belly up, but here one goes… — while the Wizards, Hawks and Heat could all serve up plenty of challenging moments, the consensus “go through” in the East is the Chicago Bulls.

Graydon’s take on a Bulls/Cavs Eastern Conference Final: “I’m not as high on the Bulls as everyone else. Can I see a situation where they’d come out of the East? Sure. But it could go either way.”

While most of the attention will be on the relative health of Bulls point guard Derrick Rose, an equally big question will whether new power forward Pau Gasol is rejuvenated by not having to play on last year’s terrible Lakers team or if last season, which saw Gasol average a career-worst 13.7 points, was the start of a career down-ticking from the 34-year old Spaniard.

19 Responses to “The Point Four-ward: Getting Way, Way, Way Ahead of Ourselves”

Sorry, but I think the Cavs are the favorites to win it all this year. I truly believe that we have the best all-around team with talent that reaches through the bench. Everyone can say that it will take some time for the team to gel. How did that work out for the Celtics when they signed the “original big-3″? The fact is that this is not the NFL or even MLB – the team with the best talent typically wins. The “team is a sum of its parts” does not reach as far into the NBA as the NFL or MLB. Anyone who says the Spurs won because “they are the best team” is doing a disservice to the talents of Duncan, Parker, Ginobli and now Leonard. Sure, they have found a few diamonds in the rough to complement the team (Danny Green being one of the best examples), but those “role players” have much less pressure on them due to the talents of the Spurs “Big 3″ (anyone else think they were the “original” Big-3 before it was a thing)… Just having LeBron on the team made Mo Williams, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall (gasp) actually effective players, no different from the Danny Greens out there. Anyone remember just how good Mo Williams (yes, old Mo) looked with LeBron when he made a push to the All Star game finally in 2009 to replace Bosh?

Look at some “Big/Key 3’s” that won championships in this era:
Garnett/Allen/Pierce
LeBron/Bosh/Wade
Kobe/Shaq/Fisher (?)
Duncan/Ginobli/Parker
Wade/Shaq/Mourning(?)

You can not tell me that LeBron/Irving/Love does not stand up well to any of those other 3, let alone with our other depth through the bench (Andy, Dion, Miller, Marion, Thompson, Jones and Delly are a push, and soon-to-be Allen). Although, why am I suddenly almost more scared of the Clippers than other team this year? Anyone else have that thought? Chicago needs to worry about Rose’s knees, Spurs worry about age/injuries, Thunder worry about depth…

I still think back to 2007 and wonder “how the heck did they do that”… Anyone else? True, they were swept by a great Spurs team before they aged, but LeBron has matured and is now not surrounded by someone with degenerative knees and a wannabe “stretch-4″ (anyone else hate when they write that phrase?)

Also in 2007, the Cavs got closer every game, and likely would have won the last one if AV had passed back to LJ for the last shot. It is reasonable to assume the Cavs/Spurs ratio would have continued to improve each game. If the Cavs had won 4 and 5, they still probably would not have won 6 and 7, but it would have majorly changed how the next couple years played out. For one thing, the following year the Cavs undisputedly got homered in Game 7 against Boston. It is easy to think the league wanted the “Big 3″ + Boston in the 2008 finals. If the 2007 finals had gone 6 or 7 games a rematch would have been a big draw, and that conspiracy theory would not be out there.

The voice of reason… I am tired being a Cleveland fan tempering my expectations. Getting excited for legit title shot is much better than praying for the Browns or Indians each year. I am tired of everyone trying to temper expectations for this team – on the radio, in the paper, etc. That is a losing attitude. The team may have to “say the right things”, but we as fans should not!

I think the reason I keep my expectations tempered is that deep down inside, part of me wants the Cavs to experience adversity. Obviously we all would like to win that first title, but I know that I — as well as many other Cleveland fans specifically — like to root for the underdog. It’s not as fun when success is expected and almost guaranteed; it’s more fun when the team you root for shatters expectations and proves everyone wrong.

I don’t like the media hype-train praising my hometown team before we’ve even earned anything. It just all feels so… manufactured. The feel-good story of LeBron coming home is already fading. Do I NOT want the Cavs to win a title or more in the near future? HECK NO. But being a selfish, irrational, passionate fan, there is absolutely a particular way I’d like to see my team win and at no point do I really want to feel like it was too easy… Hope some people understand what I’m trying to say.

My point is that I am tired of adversity, not to say we won’t have any, but I wouldn’t encourage it. And Championship teams, no matter how you look at it, are always “manufactured” in one way or another. Yankees were all “bought”, Celtics were similar – massive transactions, etc. I am also tired of being the underdog. There is nothing wrong with being the title favorite… I welcome it.

Not trying to be that pessimist, but I really don’t see the Cavs winning the title this year. If they make the Finals, it will largely be because of the woeful state of most other “contenders” in the East. On paper, sure, the Cavs talent surpasses arguably every team in the league. But forming a “Big Three” in the offseason is no shoo-in for hoisting the Larry O’Brian trophy next spring.

These Cavs are not the ’08 Celtics, whose super-team comprised 3 seasoned all-time greats on the tail end of their careers who blended together seamlessly to form one of the toughest defensive teams in memory and make a final stretch run at glory.

These Cavs are not even the ’10 Heat, who amassed 3 top 15 talents in free agency and still took a year to figure out how to play together.

These Cavs are also certainly not the 2000’s Spurs or Lakers, who both had the luxury of integrating top level talents into beautifully run franchises with established histories of winning.

I don’t think enough is being made of the fact that neither Kyrie nor K-Love has been tested playing even a second of playoff basketball; or that Blatt has never coached an NBA team. Little things like these are what can turn close games into losses, and this team won’t be able to coast to easy wins on sheer talent in the late rounds of the playoffs. Would I be surprised if the Cavs won the title this year? Not really — but the hardest steel is forged in the hottest flames, and I temper my expectations knowing that it might take a loss on the big stage to really sharpen the Cavs into the weapon we believe they can be.

You said it yourself – “tail end of their careers”. Unfortunately, Wade has been similarly on the tail end of his career due to plaguing injuries while LeBron was in Miami. We could use more defensive presence, yes. The Cavs do not have 2 alpha dogs like the Heat, trying to figure out who is leading the pack. Comparing the maturity of those 3 in Miami walking out to a party thrown for their arrival, and the collective maturity of LeBron, Andy, even Love to an extent, and their effects on a young Dion, TT, and even Kyrie would be somewhat foolish in my opinion. You also can’t say the Cavs will not be beautifully run (no idea how it will pan out to be fair), nor put “established histories of winning” into the equation (the “established histories” are simply due to talent). At some point, teams need to start winning (like the 07 Celtics) and why not start now. Both Kyrie and Love have played on the national team and felt the need to win in pressure situations. I do wonder if those players feel more pressure to get the gold internationally or get to the Finals in the NBA… I know if I had to worry about the entire country thinking we lost when we should have won, that worrying about a single city thinking that isn’t all too bad.

You certainly might be right about the things that can go wrong, playoff experience being a big one. I can agree with that.

But, I often argue both sides of an issue, depending on the mood I am in.

I am with Dan and Cols714 on this one; I am looking at the good side, and hoping it comes true.

We can compare this situation with lots of others. As far as Miami 4 years ago:

By far, the number 1 thing is LeBron, that team would have done nothing with, say, Wade, Bosh, and Deng. Is LeBron as good or better now? We will see; I think so.

The rest of the team is vastly better than the team Miami had. Wait until you see how much better ** everyone ** plays when LeBron is on the team. You can be sure KI and DW will not be squabbling.

I think the “need a year to jell” theory is possible, but not likely. The coaches and LeBron know what has to happen to jell. This isn’t like getting a bunch of stars on a pickup team in a gym that don’t mesh.

There is a reasonable chance that the coaching staff will be historically good.

It is obviously hard to predict how the year will develop. But, there is a REAL GOOD CHANCE the Cavs win it all. I for one am not betting against my home team.

The best team doesn’t win the Finals every year. The Cavs were a better team in every regard than the Magic in 2009. The Lakers were better than the Pistons in 2004. The Heat were better than the Mavericks in 2011. The Cavs were WAY better than the Celtics in 2010.

Sometimes you run into buzzsaws. Sometimes a key player gets hurt or has an off series. Sometimes you get unlucky.

Being “the favorite” (which I don’t believe the Cavs should be right now) is like being the favorite to win the lottery. You may have a better chance than everyone else individually, but certainly not against the field.

It’s not at all like being the favorite to win the lottery. This team has about a 100% chance (barring injuries) to make the East Finals. That give them probably something like a 70% chance to win it all.

It’s quite a bit more than being the favorite to win the lottery.

We are the favorites by far. Embrace it and enjoy it. This is going to be one fun season.

And, it’s also true that the Spurs will likely never play a series as well as they played in last year’s Finals. Just about everything in the series went right for the Spurs from the ‘cramp game’ to the crazy high shooting percentages (52.8% for the series). For example, Patty Mills shot 43% from 3-point terrotory during the 2013-14 reg season and 41% from 3-point terrotory during the 2013-14 post season. However, his post-season stats include his shooting 57% behind the arc against Miami. That’s never ging to happen again. Similarly, Kawhi Leonard, normally a 38% shooter on thress shot 58%.

If healthy, the Cavs should make the Finals and I think they can beat anyone. I think it’sa toss-up with SA and and perhaps the clippers. However, given that we have Lebron, I’d expect the Cavs to prevail.

Some will enjoy this year’s Cavs to the end of the season. Others will be in torment, worrying about shortcomings after wins AND losses and always anxious anything that could short circuit a championship run. To those, Tom Pestak is right: “You may have a better chance than everyone else individually, but certainly not against the field.”

I’m in my 50’s. I’m enjoying each day – not waiting for a championship. But if they win a championship, I’ll enjoy it just as much as anyone.

Article is negative negative negative , let’s first buy the horse , then we worry about the West. If Cavs get to the finals, then we worry about the coach and match ups. NBA is all about who wants it more with a reasonable roster. I think we should sit back and enjoy the ride, just like when you get into an plane and the stewardess says please sit back and enjoy the ride, as fans we don’t have any control over the outcome and even more we don’t know which team in the East or West be there at the end. Blatt seems like an okay person and with a roster as good as this , he should be able to win and go after the rings . Cavs have a great team and an smart owner who is not shy for spending to. I can’t wait for start of the season . That is just my opinion. Go Cavs.

nba.com just had a nice article on ANDY ? THE WILD THING _– describing how vital his play is to the success of the Brazilian team—-it is nice to see ANDY get some national/ worldwide acclaim for doing the garbage/ little things very well—something we knew here in Cleveland for a longtime—–ANDY is very important to the cavs team in their quest for a championship——we might talk about the big 3 a lot ( LeBron / love / kyrie ) but andy is right up there as an important part of this team—- STAY HEALTHY ANDY —-WE NEEED YOU !!

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Nate Smith is an Associate Editor. He grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on Twitter.

Tom Pestak is an Associate Editor. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.

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