Hurricane Arthur, the first storm of the 2014 season, clearly shows the perils of relying too closely on the most optimistic forecast scenarios, and instead paying heed to realistic worst-case ones that have just as much likelihood of occurring.

Tropical Storm Arthur, plus a slow-moving cold front, is likely to disrupt July Fourth celebrations for millions of people from North Carolina north to Massachusetts. However, it is not likely to be a major storm with a high potential for causing widespread damage.

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