NEW DELHI: As local assembly increases, research agencies such as IDC, Cybermedia and Counterpoint, which have typically been tracking import data to arrive at market share figures, have to revise their methodologies to retain credibility of their findings which often get panned for being inaccurate. “India’s transformation into a manufacturing hub for handsets would have some implications on the research conducted by analysts and consulting houses,” said Rajeev Nair, senior analyst for smart connected devices at Strategy Analytics.

Industry insiders say that vendor market shares are projections, and agencies follow different methods for calculating the same, leading to variations in numbers. While some rely on imports, others track devices that leave local vendors’ premises to retail channels, besides imports.

On the other hand, companies such as GfK track end-consumer sales for measuring market share, which, some feel, doesn’t always reflect the correct picture as only top 50 to 80 cities are surveyed.

“Their methodologies (going forward) would have a higher reliance on component manufacturers not just as validators of data, but in some cases plugging into quarterly or half-yearly or annual guidance for market sizing and vendor shares,” said Nair.

Sources in research agencies say that they’re tweaking ways of collecting data to fortify their findings. However, when asked about the model changes, the agencies said their market share figures encompass local production as well. “Our numbers already take into account the necessary changes in proportion of ‘locally manufactured’ versus ‘imported’ handsets,” Cybermedia Research said. It added that it verified its market estimates by cross checking from several sources, including vendors and their distributors, before publishing the data.

Neil Shah, research director, devices and ecosystems at Counterpoint Research, said the company tracks the market from supply side —components, production, equipment makers — as well as demand side, which includes retail channels and consumers. IDC didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment.

Local assembly of mobile phones — the first step towards local manufacturing — has been on the rise, indicated by the sharp rise in imports of semi-knocked down (SKD) mobile units. In April-June, SKD unit imports jumped 64% on year and 55% on quarter. These data points have been at the heart of a controversy over market share figures in an intensely competitive smartphone market where barring No. 1 Samsung, there’s a dog fight over the next four positions. “Every time a market share report would come out, there would be a controversy,” said the mobile business unit head of a leading handset maker, who did not wish to be named.

A smartphone vendor whose share drops in a specific report contends that the figures don’t account for its locally-produced devices, and in turn, points to its ‘internal data’ to show it was still ahead of its immediate competition.

Last year, Hong Kong-based Counterpoint pegged Micromax as the No 1 handset maker overtaking Samsung in the April-June quarter. The Korean firm countered, citing data from GfK to show it as the leader. In February, Canalys ranked Micromax again as No 1 in smartphones in October to December quarter, only for Samsung to counter it again.

More recently, both Intex and Micromax have claimed to be No. 2 in smartphones in the April-June quarter, citing different sets of data. “You can’t just look at import data and extrapolate it,” the chief executive officer of a leading handset maker complained, adding that some research agencies “had to be educated” to include locally-assembled smartphones to arrive at the correct numbers. His company had just been pushed down the market share sweepstakes.

Strategy Analytics’ Nair said that debates on shares will continue in line with differences in in-house methodologies of different research firms. “Though the domestic manufacturing data may sync more and more due to the current change in the manufacturing landscape, this might not necessarily bridge the differences in the final output in terms of sizing or market shares,” he said.

Sponsored Stories

Subscribe to our Newsletters

Huawei’s India smartphone business is set for a massive impact as Alphabet Inc's Google decides to suspend business with the world’s second-largest handset maker after the Trump administration added Huawei to a trade blacklist.

The latest contract follows another multi-year network modernization and expansion contract from Vodafone Idea. Under the wireless deal, Ericsson is already deploying 5G-ready wireless equipment on Vodafone Idea network in eight of its 22 circles in India.