Sunday, March 6, 2011

As the count suggested yesterday, the market began selling off immediately after the open Friday. An impulse wave lower, perhaps as described above, may be complete. The count has not been changed since yesterday's update.

There is a possible 1-2, 1-2 wind-up since 2/24. A wind-up of this scale suggests an explosion in price this week. This seems unlikely due to the momentum of what is a very mature advance since late November or last summer.

In addition, the last swing higher (Thursday-Friday) is difficult to count as an impulse wave. A 5-wave decline since the last recovery high also seems likely.

If the trend higher is to continue, wave [iv] or [v] of an advance since Summer 2010 should be underway. At this point there are likely two good impulse waves complete since late August.

As the count suggested yesterday, the market began selling off immediately after the open Friday. An impulse wave lower, perhaps as described above, may be complete. The count has not been changed since yesterday's update.

There is a possible 1-2, 1-2 wind-up since 2/24. A wind-up of this scale suggests an explosion in price this week. This seems unlikely due to the momentum of what is a very mature advance since late November or last summer.

In addition, the last swing higher (Thursday-Friday) is difficult to count as an impulse wave. A 5-wave decline since the last recovery high also seems likely.

If the trend higher is to continue, wave [iv] or [v] of an advance since Summer 2010 should be underway. At this point there are likely two good impulse waves complete since late August.

My trading philosophy is 95% based on my own Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500. I try to keep my analysis and trading as simple as possible and do not use trend lines, channels, or definite retracement, price, or time targets. To me, inspecting the proportionality and symmetry of a market's price structure is the key to mastering the principle; it is through this that low-risk, high-reward trading opportunities are found.

Because they are the only things I look at when trading, the quality of the charts I post on this blog are very important to me. I think you will find my work to be the best Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500 on the internet.