7/21/2009 -
Global production of natural rubber (NR) is heading into a historical fall. Data for the 12 months ended June revealed a 4.5 percent drop in 2009, the steepest after 1952. More than 93 percent of the global supply of NR comes from the seven countries - Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka. The total production in these seven countries in the 12 months ended June 2009 dipped to 8,703 thousand metric tons from 9,116 thousand metric tons in 2008 (January to December). NR production in Thailand fell by annualized 18.0 percent or 230 thousand metric tons in the first five months of 2009, according to preliminary estimates of the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. An estimate for June is not available. Rubber trees in 64 thousand hectares were replanted this year. The resultant reduction in tappable area, adverse weather, relatively lower price and export reduction commitments under the IRCo’s Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme have affected the supply this year. Production during the 12 months ended May 2009 was only 2,860 thousand metric tons as against 3,090 thousand metric tons in 2008 (January to December). Thailand has revised down the average annual yield data for 2007 and 2008. However, the country’s future production capacity of NR has increased substantially by extensive cultivation taken place in the past few years. An extent of 615 thousand hectares was additionally brought under rubber cultivation during the period 2005-2008, according to revised estimates of the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, reported in the first week of July. This will not impact on the supply until 2011. In Indonesia, NR output contracted 6.0 percent in the first half of this year from a year earlier due to shrinkage in tappable area by 76 thousand hectares, weather factors, fall
in export, reduced harvesting intensity and a decline in average yield. According to revised forecasts of the Directorate General of Perennial Crops in the first week of July, the average annual yield per tapped area is anticipated to decline to 937 kg/ha this year from 994 kg/ha in the year before. Under the government’s Estate Crops Revitalization Program, rubber trees in 55 thousand hectares were replanted this year. The revised forecasts show that the production would fall to 2,522 thousand metric tons in 2009, but marginally improve to 2,681 thousand metric tons in 2010. Indonesia produced 2,751 thousand metric tons of NR in 2008. During 2005-09 an area of 172
thousand hectares was newly planted with rubber which would start yielding after 2011. Production of NR in Malaysia dropped 25.4 percent year-to-year during the first half of this year as the tappable area shrank 20,000 ha and export dropped 32.0 percent. The production during the 12 months ended June 2009 was 930 thousand metric tons as compared to 1,072 thousand metric tons in 2008 January to December, according to preliminary data from the Malaysian Rubber Board. Rubber area in the country came down by 49 thousand hectares during the period 2005-2009 in spite of 11
thousand hectares newplanted during the same period. NR output in India dropped 9.4 percent in the
first half of this year, according to Rubber Board of India’s preliminary estimates. The southwest monsoon in the State of Kerala was unusually weak during June this year, for the second consecutive year, helping to continue harvesting without interruption. However, the resultant gain
in output could not fully offset the previous months’ output fall caused by severe drought in the state. The Rubber Board anticipates that the production fall would moderate to 1.9 percent in the third quarter of this year. According to the Board’s revised forecasts in the first week of July, the production during 2009 (January to December) would be 848 thousand metric tons, or 3.7 percent lower compared with the previous year. While tappable area would improve marginally, average
annual yield is anticipated to come down this year to 1,820 kg from 1,903 kg in the year before. India has scaled down the average yield anticipated for this year. During the period 2005-09, an area of 97 thousand hectares was newly planted in the country. In Vietnam, the production fell 7.2 percent in the first half of 2009 from a year earlier due to the ongoing replanting program which
reduced the tappable area by 16 thousand hectares. The country produced 651 thousand metric tons of NR in the 12 months ended June 2009, against 663 thousand metric tons in 2008 January to December. A 5.8 percent output fall is anticipated for the third quarter of this year, according to the Vietnam Rubber Association and the Vietnam Rubber Group. The average annual yield is anticipated improve this year to 1,700 kg/ha from 1,661 kg/ha in 2008. Vietnam expanded rubber area to an additional area of 195 thousand hectares by newplanting during 2005-2009. In sharp contrast to other NR producing countries, China and Sri Lanka witnessed a substantial rise in NR output in the first half of 2009. The production in China rose an annualized 78.0 percent in the first half of 2009, as per preliminary estimates of the China Rubber Research Institute in Hainan. This sharp rise largely shadows the previous year’s drastic fall in output due to adverse weather. The production during the 12 months ended June 2009 was 619 thousand metric tons as compared with 530 thousand metric tons in 2008 (January to December). A 7.6 percent rise in production is anticipated for the third quarter of this year. The production during January to December 2009 is anticipated to be 610 thousand metric tons which is 15.0% higher than the previous year. Although the expansion in tapped area in 2009 would be marginal, favorable weather and the resultant improvement in average yield is anticipated to bolster the output. China’s rubber area expanded by 214 thousand hectares during 2005-09 due to intensive newplanting during the period. In Sri Lanka, the production rose 5.4 percent year-to-year in the first half of this year, as per provisional estimates of the Rubber Development Department. The country produced 133 thousand metric tons of NR during the 12 months ended June 2009, posting a 3.1 percent rise from 2008 (January-
December). However, the production is anticipated to drop an annualized 1.8 percent in the third quarter this year. According to a revised forecast of the Rubber Development Department in the first week of July, the production would rise to 136 thousand metric tons in 2009 (January to December), by 5.2 percent from the year before. Newplanting undertaken during 2005-08 expanded the country’s rubber area by 10 thousand hectares.

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