tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-324516292017-07-23T12:18:24.947+03:00James in TurkeyTurkish political analysisJamesnoreply@blogger.comBlogger148125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-62232207526982001422013-11-01T22:32:00.000+02:002013-11-17T03:04:57.853+02:00We have moved / Taşındık!<p><a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/"><img src="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/705201.png" id="blogsy-1384650277412.148" class="" width="344" height="269" alt=""></a><br></p> <h3>If you're reading this, you've come to the old home for the James in Turkey website. </h3> <h3>The website has changed servers and adopted a new look ahead of the 2014 local election.</h3> <h3>For the latest Turkish politics and election analysis from Michael Daventry redirect your bookmarks to <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/" style="color: #dd7700; text-decoration: none;">jamesinturkey.com</a>.</h3> <p class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">var sc_project=1876434; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="dbdf6237"; </script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div><p></noscript></p> <p>&nbsp;</p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-7004793454788427192013-09-06T21:02:00.001+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.176+02:00Turkey does not deserve the Olympic Games<h3>After a disgraceful summer for Turkish democracy, the government does not deserve an Olympic prize.</h3><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jQNaqmffjt4/UioYeh7eUdI/AAAAAAAAAuM/FFdbmzPYdxg/s1600/olympicsno.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" class="" id="blogsy-1378502651759.2625" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jQNaqmffjt4/UioYeh7eUdI/AAAAAAAAAuM/FFdbmzPYdxg/s1600/olympicsno.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">On four previous occasions Turkey has tried and failed to bring the Summer Olympics to its largest city. It did not even make the shortlist for the 2012 event, its most recent attempt. The 2020 Games, the host of which will be decided by members of the International Olympic Committee this weekend, could prove different. This could be Istanbul’s year.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Istanbul candidacy has been a strong one since it was announced two years ago. Bid leader Hasan Arat has been active and enthusiastic: just yesterday, he <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/05/uk-olympics-istanbul-youth-idUKBRE98412G20130905" target="_blank">made a point</a> of invoking the potential of the country’s youth, which is the kind of thing that always goes down well with the IOC. This morning it won the support of The (London) Times, which <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3861872.ece" target="_blank">crooned in an editorial</a> about the “sheer symbolism” of an intercontinental Olympic marathon across the Bosphorus Bridge. It is significant, the paper said, that no Games have ever been held in a Muslim country.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><strong>ONE FOR THE RIVALS, PLEASE</strong><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">But this author dispenses with symbolism and believes that when IOC members assemble in Buenos Aires at 9.45pm Turkish time on Saturday, they should vote for Madrid or Tokyo.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br /><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">There are three reasons for this.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The first is money. Turkey has borrowed far too much and does not look healthy enough to pay it back. The US dollar soared through the 2 lira barrier last month – an historic high – and there is an alarming dependence on cash from foreign investors, which is a very risky place to be. An analysis of 26 emerging market countries <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21584993-which-emerging-markets-are-most-vulnerable-freeze-capital-inflows-stop" target="_blank">in The Economist this week</a> finds that the country most vulnerable to a sudden stop in this capital is Turkey. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">This is hardly a robust foundation for hosting the Olympic Games, the largest sporting event in the world. Istanbul 2020 is by far the most expensive of the three bids and the bid team’s defence – that the money is largely for infrastructure projects that would be funded whether or not Istanbul wins – misses the point. A flight of capital from Turkey would not just destroy a sporting spectacle in 2020; it would likely cancel most of the flagship projects too.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong>UNDERINVESTMENT IN SPORT</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The second reason why the Olympics should go elsewhere is sport, where Turkey’s recent record has been patchy. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">There is plenty of success to boast. In the past eleven years, Turkey’s footballers have reached the last four in a World Cup and a European Championship. Basketball’s last world championship in 2010 culminated in an enthralling final showdown in Istanbul between Turkey and the United States, while the women’s volleyball team made history by reaching the Olympics for the first time last year.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">But beyond the popular events, Turkish sport suffers from chronic underinvestment – and it shows. In London 2012 <a href="http://www.olympic.org/turkey" target="_blank">Turkey won a paltry two golds and five medals</a> overall. Wrestling and weightlifting were hugely disappointing, and Turkey’s sportsmen and women can boast few Olympic successes beyond the traditional strongholds of athletics and taekwondo. The country’s top woman and man in tennis rank 138th and 180th in the world respectively. Field hockey and rowing barely register in the national consciousness. How well could they actually perform as hosts in 2020?</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><strong>CHEATING</strong><br /><strong><br /></strong><span style="font-family: inherit;">Of course, good athletes don’t come from thin air and plenty of countries have been in Turkey’s position. Britain had a poor Games in Atlanta in 1996, where it won a single gold medal and came 36th overall; it responded by sharply increasing investment – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2012/jul/24/london-2012-team-gb-atlanta" target="_blank">particularly from the National Lottery</a> – in sport. It was amply rewarded in 2008 and 2012 with top-four medals table finishes. One of the reasons for success was the clever move to fund sport for schoolchildren and raise the athletes of the future over a longer term. No such moves in Turkey.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">What is more, Turkish sport has also shown a worrying tendency to cheat. The football league’s 2010-11 season was tainted by a scandal that saw Aziz Yıldırım, the chairman of Fenerbahçe, jailed and convicted on match fixing charges (although he was later released, pending an appeal). His club and Istanbul rivals Beşiktaş were banned from European football competitions this year in connection to the same allegations. And devastatingly, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/10168329/Drug-scandal-rocks-Turkey-who-could-be-thrown-out-of-World-Championships-as-dozens-of-athletes-test-positive.html" target="_blank">scores of Turkish athletes were suspended this year</a> after testing positive for banned substances. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong>POLITICAL ADOLESCENCE</strong></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Granted, not being able to pay for it has <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/45943877/page/5" target="_blank">not stopped other countries</a> from hosting Games. And it can be argued - <a href="http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/sports-minister-says-doping-scandals-will-have-positive-effect-on-turkeys-2020-candidacy-.aspx?pageID=238&amp;nid=53391" target="_blank">as sports minister Suat Kılıç did</a> - that clamping down hard on doping can enhance an Olympic bid rather than detract from it. But Turkey has lost huge amounts of political credibility in the last four months and no longer deserves to be honoured with the greatest show on earth.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The final reason why Turkey’s bid should not win is political. Istanbul was <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/05/erdogans-thatcher-moment.html">the spark and focus of civil unrest that swept the country this summer</a>.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Supporters of the Istanbul bid point to other Olympic cities tainted by rioting. Paris, a two-time host and perennial bidder for the Games, is home to some notoriously unstable suburbs. London was shaken by endemic unrest barely a year before it hosted the 2012 Games. And Rio de Janeiro too saw widespread and often violent demonstrations this summer: why punish Istanbul?</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The answer is that Turkey’s political leadership failed to recognise that some demonstrators could have genuine grievances. The police’s lavish and indiscriminate use of tear gas and rubber bullets against </span>protesters<span style="font-family: inherit;"> was encouraged by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the prime minister. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">He dismissed suggestions he was out of touch with a section of his people by by pointing to the 50% support he commanded at the last election, his third victory in a row. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Elections are not the only democratic check on power and Mr Erdoğan’s failure to acknowledge that demonstrated his democratic adolescence. Observers might be fond of pointing to Turkey as a powerful example of Islam and democracy working together, but this summer’s protests showed that the country’s instinct for autocratic government is still strong, despite the progress of the last fifteen years.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Western leaders responded to the Gezi Park protests by expressing concern but not attacking Mr Erdoğan directly. This was clear realpolitik: he is too important a leader to ostracise at a time of political peril in the Middle East. This weekend, members of the International Olympic Committee have the chance to send the powerful message that Europe and the United States could not: Turkey’s treatment of its citizens this summer was a disgrace. It does not deserve to be rewarded with the Olympic Games.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-31524072083206665232013-09-04T00:29:00.001+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.160+02:00Lessons from the past: Turkey's parliament could veto Syria action too<i><span style="font-family: inherit;">“Speaking after the government’s motion [in support of military action] was defeated, the prime minister said: ‘It is not right for us to make this a matter of domestic politics. The democratic process has worked. We will follow developments and do what is necessary.’ He added that despite the narrow margin of defeat, he did not look warmly upon asking parliament to vote again.”</span></i><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JkXWW8a_WG0/UiZSw8hOcJI/AAAAAAAAAt4/g6hgGdzpm-8/s1600/erdoganinshock.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JkXWW8a_WG0/UiZSw8hOcJI/AAAAAAAAAt4/g6hgGdzpm-8/s320/erdoganinshock.png" width="222" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">As parliaments around the world debate whether or not to bomb Syria, we have become accustomed to stories like the above in the press. But the prime minister in this quotation is not Britain’s David Cameron or Jordan’s Abdullah Ensour, but Abdullah Gül of Turkey. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">On 1 March 2003, Turkish MPs voted on a government motion that would add their country to the growing number of coalition countries preparing to invade Iraq. The motion – the product of a deal between President George W Bush and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had not quite yet become prime minister – allowed for foreign (read: American) troops to be stationed on Turkish soil and foreign aircraft (ditto) to use Turkish bases as part of preparations to invade Iraq from the north. The Bush administration had sweetened the deal with a promise of $6 billion in financial aid.</span><br /><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><h4><span style="font-family: inherit;">JITTERY MOOD</span></h4><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;">The national mood was far from united: the army was jittery about Kurdish aspirations in northern Iraq, while nationalists said the region’s ethnic Turcoman population risked being elbowed out of a post-Saddam settlement. Thousands of anti-war protesters echoed colleagues across the West and marched in Istanbul and Ankara against an invasion.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The fledgling AK Party government under temporary prime minister Abdullah Gül was nervous too. The financial offer – essentially, a bribe – was a substantial sum for Turkey, whose economy had crashed and shrunk by 10 percent only two years before. But large swathes of MPs agreed with public opinion, which overwhelmingly opposed war. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The country debated the motion for weeks before the vote was finally called for the first Saturday in March. That evening there were 533 MPs in the chamber, which meant the government needed 267 votes, a majority of those present.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">But Turkey’s parliament said no. 19 MPs abstained from voting and 250 rejected the motion, while the number that voted in favour was 264, just three votes short. It was narrow, but it was lost.</span><br /> <h4><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">PARALLELS</span></b></h4><span style="font-family: inherit;">It was after this result that Mr Gül made the statement at the beginning of this article. The parallels with <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b16c699c-1096-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html" target="_blank">last week’s House of Commons vote on Syria</a> are clear.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">There were 99 AK Party rebels who joined the Republican People’s Party (CHP) in opposition the 2003 Iraq motion. The government’s margin was not even enough to win a vote of confidence. It is a result that is more striking when we think of the AK Party of today, where parliamentary rebellions are a rare beast. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Of course, Mr Erdoğan runs a far tighter ship now than he did in 2003. Then, his parliamentary party was made up of defectors from the centre-right parties that hopscotched across coalition governments in the 1990s. He has had two opportunities to purge his party lists of detractors ahead of subsequent elections and has done so ruthlessly. </span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">But that is not to say the prime minister’s grip is absolute. Opinion polls show Turkish public opinion is against intervention in Syria, despite mounting anger at the civil war that often spills over into their own country. Conversely, the government has made no secret of its support for a strike on the Assad regime in Syria. Mr Erdoğan would be unwise to overlook David Cameron’s defeat.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-51047824129216763722013-07-27T20:00:00.001+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.161+02:00Would a CHP-MHP alliance work?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vNEyoBqZ66o/UfQa6TqNdpI/AAAAAAAAAtc/e_BYvc7LCuY/s225/Photo%25252027%252520Jul%2525202013%25252022%25253A08.jpg" target="_blank" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vNEyoBqZ66o/UfQa6TqNdpI/AAAAAAAAAtc/e_BYvc7LCuY/s225/Photo%25252027%252520Jul%2525202013%25252022%25253A08.jpg" id="blogsy-1374952201792.8796" class="alignright" alt="" width="200" height="200"></a></div> <p>It is two months since the first Gezi Park protests broke out. This morning's <em>Cumhuriyet</em> <a href="http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/" target="_blank" title="">recounts the casualties</a>: five dead, eleven blinded, 106 with head traumas and 63 people seriously injured. Although the protests continue, notably in Antakya last week, there is no doubting the protests have died down.</p> <p>It is quite clear that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his governing AK party have embraced what <em>The Economist </em><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21579850-note-turkeys-prime-minister-among-others-winning-elections-not-enough-zombie-democracy" target="_blank" title="">astutely described</a> as "democratic majoritarianism", the view that electoral might always makes you right. Three consecutive terms, a 50% victory at the last election and an opinion poll lead that was curbed but not shaken by the Gezi Park incidents all point to the government's enduring legitimacy, AK supporters say.</p> <a name='more'></a><p> <strong>Out of touch</strong></p> <p><a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-U4sYoYAgRGM/UfP8qsDXC0I/AAAAAAAAAtM/W9C0biVJ5EQ/s1024/Photo%25252024%252520Jul%2525202013%25252012%25253A49.jpg" target="_blank" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-U4sYoYAgRGM/UfP8qsDXC0I/AAAAAAAAAtM/W9C0biVJ5EQ/s500/Photo%25252024%252520Jul%2525202013%25252012%25253A49.jpg" id="blogsy-1374952201791.1384" class="alignright" alt="Click to enlarge" width="200" height="258"></a></p> <p>But Mr Erdoğan most recently reacted to a recent full-page advertisement in <em>The Times</em>, taken out by actors and intellectuals including James in Turkey friend <a href="http://www.berlinski.com" target="_blank" title="">Claire Berlinski</a>, by threatening to sue the newspaper. It demonstrates an extraordinary lack of tolerance and an inability to understand why people disagree with him. Simply put, Mr Erdoğan is losing touch.</p> <p>But the PM still enjoys popular support and has not been afraid to show it. He has called supporters to AK rallies across the country - unhelpfully compared by the <em>Times</em> letter to Nuremberg - and gleefully trumpeted opinion polling, which has consistently shown a solid lead for his party, even for next year's local elections.</p> <p>Once again, the question is how to beat the behemoth at that election. Gökçe Fırat, writing in the left-wing newspaper <em>Türksolu</em>, <a href="http://www.turksolu.org/412/basyazi412.htm" target="_blank" title="Türksolu">thinks he has the answer.</a></p> <p>"It has now become unacceptable in these [post-Gezi Park] circumstances," he writes, "for the opposition to be divided into two or more factions.</p> <p>"That is why the AKP must lose at this local election, or at least be seriously hurt by it.</p> <p><strong>Swapping candidates</strong></p> <p>Mr Fırat's solution to defeating the government is a simple one: an electoral pact in Turkey's two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara. In Istanbul, the MHP would not stand a candidate in Istanbul, instead supporting the CHP. In Ankara, the CHP would return the favour by backing the MHP candidate against the AK party.</p> <p>A look at the last election result - in 2009 - suggests this could work. The mayoral race in Istanbul was a heated, two-horse affair with the AK incumbent Kadir Topbaş narrowly defeating the CHP's Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Much as the London or Parisian mayoral races draw nationwide attention, the Istanbul contest gripped Turkey in 2009, and there is every reason for this to happen again. That time the two top candidates took four-fifths of the overall vote, while the MHP candidate came third with just five percent. This time, Mr Fırat argues, an MHP endorsement could sway the result against AK.</p> <p>Ankara, on the other hand, has had the same mayor since 1994: the Twitter lawsuit-friendly Melih Gökçek. Adored in the city's populous north and despised in secular Çankaya to the south, he is far more a divisive figure than Mr Topbaş. He hasn't said whether he will run for an unprecedented fifth term but the numbers stack up in his favour. If he runs, he would be the candidate to beat - but an anti-AKP consensus candidate could do it.</p> <p>"Neither political party would look upon the pact as their having lost a potential council," Mr Fırat writes, "Instead, both parties would win two councils they did not previously hold.</p> <p>"Most importantly, the AKP will lose its core voter base when these two councils go. I am not even speaking of the psychological effect this defeat would have on Turkish politics: such a pact would unleash a huge amount of energy for the two [opposition] parties."</p> <p>Unfortunately for Mr Fırat, it is not as straightforward as he makes out. </p> <p>First, there is no guarantee the 2009 numbers will replay themselves in 2014. The Istanbul race was indeed close, but this was largely down to Mr Kılıçdaroğlu's confident and energetic campaign. He has since become his party's leader and, under a different candidate, the gap could be wider.</p> <p>Second, a joint mayoral ticket does not mean the withdrawing party will stop campaigning in the city entirely. There are still assembly seats up for grabs, as well as smaller district councils such as Çankaya, a CHP stronghold in Ankara it would never relinquish and would presumably fight an MHP candidate for.</p> <p><strong>Do nationalists vote left?</strong></p> <p>Third, there is no guarantee MHP voters would follow their party's endorsement. Although AK Party antipathy is very strong among the CHP, the same cannot be said for nationalist MHP folk, many of whom feel far closer to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan than Mr Kılıçdaroğlu (Metropoll survey, June 2013) and more likely to be supportive of government policies than supporters of other opposition parties (Genar, January 2013).</p> <p>That said, there are hints that MHP supporters are looking to vote elsewhere: the Metropoll survey found less than half (49%) of MHP voters were likely to support their party in a future election, the lowest among all the major parties. Mr Erdoğan upped his nationalist rhetoric during the 2011 general election campaign in an attempt to court this contingent and push the MHP under the electoral threshold, out of parliament. He succeeded at least in lowering the party's support; more MHP supporters could flee in 2014.</p> <p>The man who can swing things could be Mustafa Sarıgül, the left wing, independent mayor of Istanbul's Beyoğlu district. 53% percent of MHP voters believe he should establish a partyy of his own and 37% say they would vote for it. A mayoral bid from Mr Sarıgül on the CHP ticket could do the trick.</p> <p>The fourth problem with Mr Fırat's thesis - and this, alas, is the clincher - is that it is an implausible alliance. The CHP and MHP leadership operate on opposite ends of the political spectrum: the former social democratic, the latter nationalistic. They differ hugely on areas of policy: for example, the CHP has backed the principle of Kurdish peace, criticising only the government's handling of the process, while the MHP has condemned the whole process.</p> <p>Even on the Gezi Park protests, the MHP chose to defend the police - a key voter base - as simply following government orders, while the CHP praised the "spirit and courage" of the demonstrators. The two parties are so far apart, it is little wonder that MHP voters feel they have more in common with AK.</p> <p><strong>How to win</strong></p> <p>Turkey's opposition needs to learn that clever electoral mathematics will not cut it. To defeat the AK, parties like the CHP and MHP <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/02/turkeys-next-election-chps-challenge.html" target="_self" title="Turkey's next election: the CHP's challenge">need to attract AK voters</a>. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's statement this week that the Prophet Muhammad was the world's "greatest revolutionary" may have been step in that direction. We shall have to see whether or not it was a part of a strategy.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <script type="text/javascript">var sc_project=1876434; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="dbdf6237"; </script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div> </p><p>\n\n</p> <p></noscript><p> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <script type="text/javascript">var sc_project=1876434; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="dbdf6237"; </script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div> <p></noscript><p> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-66479386040368530592013-06-11T15:36:00.000+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.169+02:00CHP surges in first post-protest opinion poll<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SE_gsJuNmOg/USJlkqUwWlI/AAAAAAAAAXc/1RQSLWgitrA/s1600/logo-chp.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SE_gsJuNmOg/USJlkqUwWlI/AAAAAAAAAXc/1RQSLWgitrA/s200/logo-chp.png" width="169" /></a></div>One way of assessing the political implications of the unrest in Turkey, which has entered its fifteenth day, is to look at what opinion polling has to say. Politicians, reporters and foreign observers alike are all keen to know how the events have affected how the country intends to vote.<br /><br />We may now have the results of the first serious attempt at polling in the last two weeks. They show a significant narrowing of the gap between the governing AK party and the opposition CHP.<br /><br />The headline figure (with changes from Gezici's last poll in May) is <b>AKP 38.5% </b>(-3.2)<b>, CHP 31.8 </b>(+3.6)<b>, MHP 18.5</b> (-1)<b>, BDP 8.2 </b>(-0.9).<br /><br />The result is the strongest CHP showing that I've seen since just after current leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2010/06/poll-shows-first-chp-lead-in-eight.html" target="_blank">election in May 2010</a>. Consider this graph:<br /><br /><a name='more'></a><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="400" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" src="http://s3.datawrapper.de/zxpDK/" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" width="560"></iframe> Murat Gezici, whose eponymous company conducted the opinion poll, says the result is partially a reaction to Turkey's street unrest, but not entirely. He points to surveys he conducted in May and in previous months to argue there has been a latent feeling of anger among significant parts of the population.<br /><br />The Gezici argument is that the anger stems from a number of unpopular government policies: the recent alcohol legislation, which has fostered a feeling that freedoms are being restricted; the Kurdish peace process, which is seen by some as direct negotiation with terrorists; and Syria, where the perception is that the that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is leading his country towards war.<br /><br /><b>What does this mean?</b><br /><br />Is this the beginning of the CHP's steady march towards government? Woah, hold your horses. See<a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/02/turkeys-next-election-chps-challenge.html" target="_blank"> my analysis from last year</a>&nbsp;which uses the last poll showing a CHP lead to demonstrate how entrenched AK is, particularly in central Anatolia.<br /><br />Is this a significant result for the CHP? Possibly, but it should not be exaggerated. As it stands, this is one poll conducted by one polling company. If there is a movement of support away from AK and towards the CHP, this should appear in other results, irrespective of whether the headline figures appear favourable for one party or another.<br /><b><br /></b><b>Any other provisos?</b><br /><br />I thought you'd never ask. As with all polling that comes out of Turkey, it is never easy to establish who paid for the polling and where the owner's loyalties might rest, meaning that extra caution is required.<br /><br />This Gezici survey does ask some rather leading questions in which it could be argued the respondent is being coaxed towards one answer. In one, participants were asked "Do you think the restrictions introduced on alcohol represent a battle against alcoholic drinks or an intervention in people's way of life?" 62.1 percent opted for the latter.<br /><br />Another question asked "Would an executive presidency in Turkey lead to dictatorship, a single leader and authoritarian rule?". 82.9 percent said yes. However, Gezici asked the same question in May, when 75.8 said yes.<br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Gezici Araştırma spoke face-to-face with 3278 men and women in cities, towns and villages across 36 Turkish provinces on 1 and 2 June 2013. In selecting its sample, Gezici used what it calls a "multistage - stratified - random method" and a gender and age quota.</span></i><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-69567604553683090252013-06-07T13:25:00.000+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.174+02:00Erdoğan's hidden safety net<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cOR_Irwy2pA/UbG4AIh4lCI/AAAAAAAAAsg/w0elI7h9exQ/s1600/temp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="193" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cOR_Irwy2pA/UbG4AIh4lCI/AAAAAAAAAsg/w0elI7h9exQ/s400/temp.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">There's plenty of speculation out there on the implications of the last eleven days for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's political future. The Economist <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21579004-recep-tayyip-erdogan-should-heed-turkeys-street-protesters-not-dismiss-them-democrat-or-sultan" target="_blank">called this week</a> for him to step down next year and make way for President Abdullah Gül. Ben Judah&nbsp;<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8c0b9b5c-ce9f-11e2-8e16-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VRFPqQNe" target="_blank">argued in the Financial Times</a> that the prime minister needed to see this as his "1968 de Gaulle moment". Others have said any Erdoğan departure would lead to the immediate implosion of his Justice and Development (AK) party and the splintering of his centre-right/conservative/moderately Islamic coalition.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Perhaps. I will freely admit I am not in a position to guess what will happen next. No-one is, really. Right now, events on the ground feel a little like a swinging pendulum: first there was the calm when the police withdrew from Taksim, then there were the clashes in Beşiktaş. We then had the widely-publicised apology from deputy prime minister Bülent Arınç, but the pendulum swung back after we saw a <a href="https://twitter.com/sortoflikehim/status/342325764814942209" target="_blank">greater police crackdown in Ankara</a>.&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><br /><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: inherit;">There were more protests last night, but it was also the most peaceful night we have seen since the disturbances began almost a fortnight ago. The&nbsp;</span>protesters<span style="font-family: inherit;">&nbsp;are not blinking; neither, judging by his defiant 3am rally last night at the airport, is the prime minister.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Over the coming days, I will try and consider the more plausible scenarios for Mr Erdoğan's future. I begin by examining the AK Party's solid electoral foundations.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Everybody knows the AK Party won just shy of fifty percent of the vote at the last general election in 2011. What everyone doesn't know is how that vote is spread across the country. Kindly consider the map at the head of this article, which should magically reveal nuggets of information as you tap it. Doesn't work? Try clicking it instead.</span><br /><head> <title>Swiffy output</title> <script src="https://www.gstatic.com/swiffy/v5.2/runtime.js"></script> <script> swiffyobject = 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Kc7BlaZubVw1DwbA:B:bT:XZaGRaUja3Cma4Dhb9Dc2Hoa5DkbN:9C2cbW2c3C2cbJ:XsaNlbA:A:bF:MGbIGPGbHaTibQmJybfm2cmb2c:7bvbDu7C3cb5Cl4D1dbJ9bj9ebqxq2daelaleajCa:HbGKBKatEbcAfAbd:fda:zbDwB7balKbnQ8cRba:c:bt:tob:n5cva6fcbeAiAbs:9bsblw6d1db2cp9dpbb:d:bsB3dXbyV7b2DbbTQ1DbNOMRa::auabpbvjbfhh9bad6ca9dHb3fI4h1Dbv1CC6GaL2CbAJgTboQ4cQbl:nGaA0CbE9Cl6GblXt0CaxBbibobbl:qGbfJ4dZbyK9bPbdFEQbIKETa8b8Bb7c1C6e7CamIaLRbQR0GTbF:K:c:416C7IbP:7Cjb3Ex6F5gbK2d6D6fb4Cx9D4daQmaWfbT:6G1db6E0d6E6eb:jw6ca3h5hb9c9c5f5ebyq6ezb3eo4f9cbkxtxbi:2d4ea7b7cappajHajSbiUtYbbAeAbk:0ckbkfsfba:b:auLbtSt4CahNarLbyLt2CbCKaPaqDasDaAVbDO:YbdItSarRahRb:Pm0CbhHcJaXCa8BEbFDFSb:Yq0EbnRj7Ba8C9Cb3C7B9C8CbEIeYbjPhVbAFPQbVPV0Cb:OZ1CbZP2FWa2CKaTPbKU4CUc:35H71Fb4F:1Ilb8BkE0cbqnqzb:i2G6eb2G6d5H6dbK:3F5cb8Cy2H5ca4Ova8DabOC9BQbNN7BPbFBOBbI:VbbMbXbbX:7CJbZW6DWbD:HabVfV4db:vQ4dbRu6CvbQ:5Erb8Bm2CubDhb1cbk0d2e0dbo:3cEa3lEb0id4joa1cla2eib0ee2flblg8b1dbu7d6e3fb0co3c9bbboW2cbOkQqagrbr7b2f9lbu9dw2gbcwJ2ebHrF7baqzaryaFwaMpaQfaYhbRi4Cta2CybDghmbqjqtb:kx8dboyz0ca0cba1gLbhAqAb1c:5fqb5dv8evbt:8fXb9dX3e6CaiJbfEmEbp:7d1Cb1c2C1c9Db:JfMbcAhAbe:mbbgamabp:uJbeNuNbg:qcb1cj7g9da6f0ebdbgbbi:nMbfPqPbi:1cya8c4ebltm6dbaxJxbQ:J9cbe8cy6eazxagVbgVoVbj:2c3cbw3cr0dbFla7bbeokobb:eBa8b8Dbu6Dv5FbbSN2CbTPO7CbfU6c1Db6e8Cf0DbR:6J6Hb7H7H7H6JaQ7CbQZK0FbdVA5Ca5C9Cb2D1D2D0Eb:Hu0Eao1Daf0Db:7Cj8DbiIm7CbbOjUbhGzKb2cE7f7Bb4cU0c3CbO8CL8Fbc1Cy8Fa1c3Ea4DTb1DS2IZa3DAbJdRxbM7b8B7bbP:1E5Cb4C6C3D2FaQ7BbLNYTbXM9B1CbETk6CafJaOBbW:4G8Bb1CO7ETa1GFc:454e93gb8D:8G3hbQ9d6D2hb9B3c4E4cbY:0Izb5F7b3J7bb8B:0DJbMI3D3Eb2D4F2G9FbLC1CCbZ:5Feb8Fh8GsbJjr6fb8b6e9f8gb9ct2d1dbbv3C5cb2Cm6C9bb7B2jY3mbc0c1d6cb0cd6dybqu3c2gbm1du0ebegmgbd:iBbvJ4c4CbmX1d3Ca5jOa4kMbrH7b5Dag6Cb:JINb9BJH3CbuW9eWbz:7c2Cbm2C3c2Cbs:2cMbgF1cJa4eEa8lMb0dLo7BbJGP1DbO2IY0LbJ8B8C7Eb7C9C2E0GaSYbMLZPbKDVDc:145G93cbVd7Fwb6F8b7H8bbYa8Dpa5Cja7Dea7DebNdTpbIt3E8bb8Dh4FybNrT6gbE8fS6ibIrG7bbbir9bbx7b9b0dbdm5jva0icbvA4dOb2cT5eTba:b:bwb1ezbzv1dvbd:gAbpGx6Ebj6Ex6Ebo:3g4Ea7d1EblRl6Cb:4C2c0Fa3c8Ba0C7Ja2GIa1GDc:11L46DbOfOyb:sn0dal2dah2gac4hbCsT8cbOq3Cya0Fla0FmbRg3CzbV7bU7cb:kx7db7b0d7b5fb:0f7e1gbpc0dpbxl1d7ba0d8ba6cobncykanna2c4ebry0cybb:c:blDl1Db:TqWa4ghbyd5ckbjgmvbdrowa5dib5ef3i5cb3cy3d0ebiyB4ebFs:xa5dna7ena5c7Db4c8D3e8Db9d:d3EbTXV4CbBJk8Cbr4Dv4Jbe3Es1GboQ2fYb0dF0f4CblSl7BbAIQ1CbW1CW2EaDQaLKbPFK6Cbg8BP8DbWU2FUa3CEbGEIYbBTIXbCAKAbH:Vba0Jkb2Fh7FqaQga1Cca7CFbKEUYaSZaWUbWO1D9DbS4CS0Fb:PGTa5CabNbXbbT:XHbCEQHa8BDb9C:6G7BbOL0CRaUDc:031d1uaQ0cbS2cO3dbdj5cjb9e:u2cbPmP3caFqaOnbVlV3daDyaPgbU:OsbesV2caTmaHnb:oV4cbNmWna0CFa9BEbGcQxaJzalhbkannad7db:3de4ebfj7c7ba8c7bbekc3ebA2dd4ebfl4c1ca3dua9dla1fhbdagabo:2cMbwPw2Cb:X0f7Ga1f5EaR3CbR4CR8EaDUaLTbLMLYb:Mk1Eaw3Jbe2C:5DbEN3C4DbX7B0C2DbGOE8Cbe6CG6CbL:1G1Da0F2Dc:191D7UbB:D:b9Bc4Eub7Bs4E7bbZg2F7ca6C1ca8b8bbyxz7dbcvS9bbTf7B8bbGue6caslaydbz:6epb8bp8b1caMma4Clb7Bh7CnbHgErbexG6ca4CcbSH3CHb9B:9B1db:5cz2eattbjnlzbj2d9b5ebrm2gnb5fa5fnb:mXybYm1Ema8Ifa1EcaUEbA1CY1CbA:B:b7Bb7B4caCqaGbbKEK3Cb:YIYbJ:J7BadSbdHkHbl:nObbNJVbLH8B8DbM3C7C8DbNIZIbJ:SebPiR7bb:ql7ebl0d7c2ebkdsmagob:9b7D4fb0Cw6DwbI:NHbFHKHaOibLiLoalrboowobb:dAbbAeAbn:8dzb2d2c2d8db:tptbc:fAbvC7b7BbdQmVa4cEb7b:6cgbkhz0dbw6dw1fb:o7doa2dgboe2cxa0cxa3cmbwd0clai2cbape8bakqbjfrfbe:jBa5d8Cb8c7C9f2DbeAjAb7b:6evbtn7cra2fBa6lJa6gEaqMar7BbkWs9BauCa0dmbcafabp:z8Bbn2Ca5EbNZ3E8Db9CV0HZa3DHbLFMSbDVP9Ba3ELa3DDbHcHqb:xG9cbHpTpbK:7C2CbZ2C5C5EaMNbLGZKb0CG6G3Da1D7Ba9CPb8EK8E2GaH0CaS5CbY7CY7Eb:Tw8DbnQ3cYa0fMb3gJ4i7Cbu7Bp5JbD8GZ3LbL8BY8CbMK6DSb4DL2GLc:854h58cbCbCnaEsaKpbMk9Hva9Omb7Gc9HpbMm4CmbU:2C2cbL2c8C2cbY:6DkaOlakmbkilsaH4dbK3d9B1ea3Knb4He2KobUhRla5dpbmersas8hbk3f7b7hbox2e5ca5gya9ckbkA0cNbyR1fZa6cbbpg8d5cb9d2d0k5ga1e1ca6c1cbruzwbcafabg:pFbnIrZad9FaC7FbDNPNbS:S2Cb:2Co2CakGaE8BbJ5CJ9FaE9BbDFVFbZ:ZPb:OZPbZ:6Ema3CbbCIZIbK:Zba8CabIBIMb:RoXboE8b6CbeMmWbhIoIbl:nJbbJJQbKEK1Cb:OnZbmJ7e8Bb3dR6gYa6iIb0jC4mVa4cRa9BDb0CC0CJaF2CbDMBSbcEoEbrALMb9BI5DVaKCc:830F68ebf:kbbtip4dbD2cK0dbCcclasrbrnw9bbfmf7db:4eS2gaLraEtb:tMtbB:C:bNBYYbK7BW7BaHJaDVb:2Ci2Cbh:w3Cai9BaINbNI8BIaLKaH8BbEXA6CbdLw8BbvR9cRc:367g63Ha0FdbLgZ8dbP5d3C2ebCaGabP:4DTb8C9B4D9BbG:2D7Bb9BV3EYbD:G:bS:1CnbNo2E8bb5Gw5C6cb1fs4D3nb0D6d0D6eb:j9bub3dq9fqbc:e:bzA9fWb5cS5eWa4eab8fi5hzbqpY3cb2Cm2Cvb:g7Cua7BkbKfKjb:iOibD:IAaScbFeHqaHraPjbIcNjbGhGpb:vM3cbNod1dbp7b6d4cbvf8bobfih3daA0dbCkLkbR:8D8bb0C8b9B4dbbr0Cua8FCb4CH4CTb:QO4DbO7BZ2CaO:bJbPgbLkK5ebb5do0iaasbBeLebH:MgaDob:uwubo:qfbdf:0cbF6c:0hbd0cj7ca4cib7bb5cjbiht4dap1ea8eGbrA1cAbn:xbbsc1dpb0cq9fqb5d:3jVb7dR2lYb1kL3q7FbsR3cRbe:jcbpjj9daA4cbacdcbc:iBboI8eOb3dH5f7BatUaLUbQW0F7Ba6CHbHEJYbCWy5Ib7b2G9c2Gbi:i8Db:Tc4CbcNgNbk:vVblVa6CbJK1CKbE:JabHaOabV:9BLbKPO7GbF6GX4JbKPL2CbCPa4Dbe2Cb4DbCLTYbYT6D5FbU6DG0EbmDl8Cb:4CM0Ea4C8BbIDSVbKRQ8CbK6CT3Da0EJc:104G8qbX:6Gzb8E0c3H0cbD:HAbEBJBbN:WpaTra9Cdb8D:3EJa9CDa2CAa2C7Ba2C4CaXxbWx8E4dbNgYtbLlNvaJ2ebFxZ6da7J7ia9F7fbQtR0db:0c8B0fa7B8baynb2cq2e0dbtvu4db:zo4ebt4cm8ebFw6D8ea3D2ca5Cpb0Cg7E3cb7B7b3C5ebEv:2ca0cwb7cv9d1dbglvpa5dda5eAa4d9Fb4d0G6h9HbqH8cZa6c7CbqX0d0DbvO3f2Cb9bK2f0Ca0e1Ca4g9Db4cQ4e4Dbt8B5f4CboByBbt:thb:lw2cavua6f2Da0k6Fa6d9Ba7BTbZLYZbaO1c6Db3c4C9c6Gbf4Dz8DbuFsRbCKZRbQDVLbEIE6Cb:8BF6CbFH4CPa2EKbR:2DYbYY8B6DbD8C7B1DbB:E:c: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560px;"></div><script> var stage = new swiffy.Stage(document.getElementById('swiffycontainer'), swiffyobject); stage.start(); </script><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Turkish provinces highlighted in AK yellow represent those where the AK Party not only came first, but won it with more than <i>sixty</i> percent of the vote. 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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-59271956168908694652013-06-01T23:51:00.000+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.165+02:00From street battle to street party <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;"><a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-3_haKOLXitE/UasN--xmAUI/AAAAAAAAAqs/Koz-h6c5sQA/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A53.jpg" target="_blank" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-3_haKOLXitE/UasN--xmAUI/AAAAAAAAAqs/Koz-h6c5sQA/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A53.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592574.8743" class="alignright" width="300" height="400" alt=""></a><div style="text-align: left;">I have to admit I felt just a little awkward. Four-wheeled cabin baggage would not have been my apparel of choice while walking into a riot zone, but I had no choice.</div> </div><p>I am in Istanbul this weekend to attend the wedding of an old friend. My hotel, booked weeks ago, is a small place in the backstreets of Şişli, just a few streets away from a certain Gezi Park. It's normally a two minute walk from Taksim's metro station; today, I had to find my way on foot from Mecidiyeköy, several kilometres away, as passers-by warned me there was tear gas about.</p> <p>What follows is an account of what I saw.</p> <a name='more'></a><p> <strong>THE BATTLE</strong></p> <p>The main street leading from Şişli into Taksim is Halaskargazi Caddesi. It's a traditional Turkish shopping street: narrow, busy, and with shoppers double- and even triple-parking their cars to rush into the shops. But today there was also a steady stream of pedestrians walking towards Taksim. No-one was chanting anything, but whenever a car drove past waving a Turkish flag all the walkers would burst into applause.</p> <p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">At the junction with Cumhuriyet Caddesi, the final square before Taksim, the atmosphere changed. Many cars stopped and turned around: no-one was telling them, the drivers just seemed to know. But none of the walkers turned back; rather, they prepared for the tear gas, pulling out bottles of lemon juice and milk from their bags. A street seller weaved through the crowds, selling surgical masks for 5TL (£1.79). He should be ashamed of such shameless opportunism, his customers told him. But business was good for him.</p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oyaB3IHh_Hk/UasOHHDPWzI/AAAAAAAAAq0/bU5VhJR5Bdo/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A11.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oyaB3IHh_Hk/UasOHHDPWzI/AAAAAAAAAq0/bU5VhJR5Bdo/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A11.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592666.327" class="aligncenter" width="376" height="282" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Taksim first aid - the public's tear gas prevention supplies</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Tear gas smells exactly like the stuff they spray around the roads of Turkish holiday villages to kill insects. Only much, much stronger. It makes your eyes sting and your throat contract - and this was still hundreds of metres away from the street battles. I trudged on towards Taksim with my suitcase and the now-chanting and clapping protestors, but decided to slip down a back street to - and here's journalistic endeavour for you - find my hotel.</p> <p>If anything, the backstreets were more tense than the main road. Other people had had the same idea as me and were walking in silence again. You could hear what was happening on the main road - the chants, the whistles, the thuds of someone hitting something - but you couldn't see it.</p> <p>A police helicopter hovered overhead. Every so often someone would look up, wave a middle finger at it and shout a profanity. "They don't dare come down here," one said.</p> <p>All of a sudden, there was a shout - "they've thrown gas!" - and people began to run. Someone came up to me and pressed a surgical mask into my hands. "You'll need this," he said, before putting on his own. The range of headwear was impressive: scarves, swimming goggles, even military-grade gas masks. People were grabbing stones and rushing back up the hill towards the main street. The gas didn't feel any more pungent than it had done before, but I donned my mask and pressed on.</p> <p>At the next intersection someone rushed out of an estate agents' and shouted: "They're pulling back! The president's just announced it." We crowded round his small television to watch the strapline: President Abdullah Gül had criticised the excessive use of force and demanded the police withdraw entirely from Taksim. The effect was electric. Everyone turned and ran to the square; I, on the other hand, disappeared inside my hotel to drop off my wretched luggage.</p> <p><strong>THE PARTY</strong></p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-jv-gQTKVI20/UasONnz2mEI/AAAAAAAAAq8/zx7BOLsse9s/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A21.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-jv-gQTKVI20/UasONnz2mEI/AAAAAAAAAq8/zx7BOLsse9s/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A21.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592676.0513" class="aligncenter" width="500" height="375" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Some of the crowd settled down to people watch</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Stepping out bag-free a little while later, I found things had changed. The steady stream towards Taksim had not stopped, but the corner store was now doing a roaring trade in beer and snacks. </p> <p>It's worth mentioning the kind of people who were protesting today. All the demonstrators were well-dressed and in European clothes. The vast majority were snapping photographs on expensive smartphones. Many were swigging bottles of beer. There was barely a headscarf to be seen. This is the section of Turkish society that is urban, comfortably middle class, Western-minded and fiercely secular.</p> <p>You may remember the <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2007/05/take-note.html" target="_self" title="">so-called "Republic meetings" of six years ago</a>, when the self-declared "children of Mustafa Kemal" met in cities across Turkey to protest the AK Party government, reassert the country's secular status and implicitly suggest it was about time the military stepped in to sort things out. Given the same section of Turkish society had turned out to protest, you may ask what made today any different.</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-g1G7Lj6b5gk/UasOTilvtRI/AAAAAAAAArE/aLi4GzwOhb0/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A41.jpg" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-g1G7Lj6b5gk/UasOTilvtRI/AAAAAAAAArE/aLi4GzwOhb0/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A41.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592589.9966" class="aligncenter" width="375" height="500" alt=""></a></div> <p>It is that today's protest was not about Ataturk and there was a hardly a poster of the Turkish Republic's founder to be seen. I know this, because I was so surprised when I finally saw one that I took a photograph. The Taksim Gezi Park protests are not about the perceived threat to Turkey's secular system or Ataturk's legacy, but government arrogance and oppression.</p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-1SyA7Uxj1C4/UasRCDQS9zI/AAAAAAAAAsE/jzUV79WGjW8/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A36.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-1SyA7Uxj1C4/UasRCDQS9zI/AAAAAAAAAsE/jzUV79WGjW8/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A36.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592652.0518" class="aligncenter" width="378" height="283" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Construction equipment was smashed and graffitied</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The road from Şişli to Taksim takes you directly past the Gezi Park, the proposed redevelopment of which caused all this unrest and awful police brutality over the past week. But the police's sudden withdrawal - first from these streets, then from the square itself - turned the park into a festival zone. People were clapping and dancing, with celebrations punctuated only by a few rounds of chanting.</p> <p>Much of Taksim square itself is a construction site and had been closed off by hoardings. These were all now knocked down and people were wandering freely around the site, sometimes alarmingly close to sheer drops. </p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-hP4HO6_k0vk/UasOeMv0LTI/AAAAAAAAArU/v5ZbehxEkA4/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A44.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-hP4HO6_k0vk/UasOeMv0LTI/AAAAAAAAArU/v5ZbehxEkA4/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A44.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592632.4446" class="aligncenter" width="378" height="283" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The huts where construction workers were based were set alight</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Everything was being destroyed - and not always the Turkish state's belongings. Diggers, lorries and cranes parked inside and presumably belonging to the site's private contractors had been graffitied all over, with their windows smashed and their tyres flattened . One youth wearing an Anonymous mask - he couldn't have been older than eighteen - pulled out a lighter and set fire to the digger's cabin, precariously close to a fuel tanker. He was rebuked by the watching crowd and he extinguished it immediately.</p> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-1XJgz4IkUng/UasOiGJ90FI/AAAAAAAAArc/WMuKt6LFeeI/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A55.jpg" target="_blank" style="clear: right; float: right; "><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-1XJgz4IkUng/UasOiGJ90FI/AAAAAAAAArc/WMuKt6LFeeI/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252019%25253A55.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592647.682" class="alignright" width="300" height="225" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This police van has seen better days</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Not a single vehicle had been spared. Behind the Gezi Park itself, a police van was upturned and smashed. I counted three buses - one belonging to the police, the others operated by the council - and five cars that received similar treatment. The local clerk's office had been gutted and official papers were scattered everywhere. I found one signed by Sadettin Tantan, the interior minister thirteen years ago.</p> <p>The pyromaniacs struck here too: somebody thought it would be a great idea to set fire to the clerk's office. There was a sudden shout of "bring water!" and in an instant a human chain had been formed carrying bucket loads of water to put the fire out. "My friends, we have got to stop things," one man shouted at the crowded. "It will only end up spreading to the trees."</p> <p>Turkey's broadcast media have been a particular focus of ire these past few days because of their perceived reluctance to broadcast the demonstrations live, and the six live broadcast vans parked in the square bore the brunt of the anger. All had been graffitied, the one belonging to Turkey's largest news channel NTV worst of all. One reporter was vocally rebuking a demonstrator for deliberately wandering into her live shot.</p> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-5u1pijEvdUY/UasOoJ3RpCI/AAAAAAAAArk/39QM9etkXZ0/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252020%25253A09.jpg" target="_blank" style="clear: right; float: right; "><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-5u1pijEvdUY/UasOoJ3RpCI/AAAAAAAAArk/39QM9etkXZ0/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252020%25253A09.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592661.2852" class="alignright" width="300" height="400" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">NTV's live broadcast van was smashed</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The only officials that could be seen were paramedics. Ambulances were occasionally weaving their way through the crowd, sirens silent, with the driver politely asking crowds over the tannoy to make way.</p> <p>There was something delightfully Turkish about today's events: there were street vendors out in force, selling ice-cold water, one lira whistles, Turkish flags and, for the more daring, V for Vendetta-style Anonymous masks. I saw one man stop stoning a lorry's front windscreen for a moment to buy a bottle of water. I saw another walking quite cheerfully around holding a souvenir road sign.</p> <p>Tear gas had been replaced by cigarette smoke and even the smell of barbecues as salesmen appeared from nowhere to flog meatballs-in-bread to the hungry visitors. It really felt like a national picnic day for most; some, however, were quietly and methodically retrieving the metal barriers that the police had discarded and carrying them back into the Gezi Park. They were taking no chances with the authorities: they were barricading themselves in.</p> <p><strong>THE QUESTIONS</strong></p> <p>The Istanbul protests have sparked demonstrations of solidarity in Ankara and Izmir, where pepper spray was again deployed, and abroad, where it was not. Following the past week's events, I have three observations to make.</p> <p>The first concerns what this means for Istanbul and whether the Gezi Park redevelopment can continue. The mayor has been on television repeatedly to say he thinks a shopping centre on the site is a bad idea, but that is not the same thing as saying the redevelopment has been cancelled. The core of the protestors were there because they wanted to protect one of the few remaining green spaces in a heaving metropolis. There is no guarantee tonight that it is any safer.</p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-PWGZlVPbiw8/UasOs9fhHOI/AAAAAAAAArs/hBU7Q3D_fDQ/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A46.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-PWGZlVPbiw8/UasOs9fhHOI/AAAAAAAAArs/hBU7Q3D_fDQ/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A46.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592671.2588" class="aligncenter" width="376" height="282" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Taksim Square towards Istiklal street in the early evening</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The second concerns the broadcast and social media. Many say Turkish television failed in its duty to report the news and there is much evidence to support that view: most rolling news channels did not switch to live coverage of the square until the police withdrawal was announced. Many then cut away when the prime minister began his 45-minute speech. The suggestion is that media bosses were ordered not to cover it to prevent the spread of disorder. The news vacuum was filled by some smaller broadcasters - like BBC Turkish and the opposition party's Halk TV - and social media. Access to 3G Internet services was particularly difficult in Taksim; again, the suggestion is that mobile telephone companies were ordered to restrict their service in the area to voice calls only. Another explanation for that could be the sheer number of people trying to access data services; I did spot two mobile cell base stations in the middle of Taksim, perhaps brought in to increase capacity.</p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-VJ7-m91MuLE/UasOyzEmZ3I/AAAAAAAAAr0/8Q-64x2JLsc/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A49.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-VJ7-m91MuLE/UasOyzEmZ3I/AAAAAAAAAr0/8Q-64x2JLsc/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252018%25253A49.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592620.2593" class="aligncenter" width="376" height="282" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Taksim square facing the Ataturk Culture Centre in the early evening</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>The final point relates to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose name is emblazoned unflatteringly in graffiti across Taksim tonight. The prime minister spoke only once yesterday, at an opening somewhere in Istanbul, where he acknowledged the police - specifically, its use of tear gas - had been excessive. But he did not adopt the conciliatory tone of his deputy, Bülent Arınç, or the Istanbul mayor Kadir Topbaş. He left it to his interior minister to announce there had been nearly 90 demonstrations in 48 provinces across Turkey leading to 939 arrests, 26 police injuries and 53 protestor injures, including one in a critical condition.</p> <p>It was the same interior minister who announced they would review CCTV and other camera footage from the Taksim protests and prosecute officers who used disproportionate force. </p> <p>The prime minister, meanwhile, expressed frustration at the court order preventing further development ("We hadn't started building anything yet") and said their plans would not be changed. In many Western democracies, a stubborn refusal to acknowledge the mood on the streets has led to a prime minister's the downfall. For Mr Erdoğan, the Gezi Park incident could be where it all started.</p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-lCnJe-wScmk/UasRG9150QI/AAAAAAAAAsM/1xj-WvNQzgg/s1024/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252020%25253A00.jpg" target="_blank" style=" "><img src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-lCnJe-wScmk/UasRG9150QI/AAAAAAAAAsM/1xj-WvNQzgg/s500/Photo%2525201%252520Jun%2525202013%25252020%25253A00.jpg" id="blogsy-1370167592677.3726" class="aligncenter" width="375" height="281" alt=""></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">&quot;Government resign, Tayyip the murderer&quot;</td></tr></tbody></table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <script type="text/javascript">var sc_project=1876434; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="dbdf6237"; </script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div> </p><p></noscript><p> </p> <script type="text/javascript">var sc_project=1876434; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="dbdf6237"; </script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div> <p></noscript><p> </p> <p class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">var sc_project=1876434; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_security="dbdf6237"; </script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div><p></noscript></p> <p>&nbsp;</p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-70763915975484054552013-05-31T18:29:00.002+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.178+02:00Erdoğan's Thatcher moment?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uiUWswE82rU/UajBd8M9MzI/AAAAAAAAAqY/DnXZYjBjVBA/s1600/gezipark1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uiUWswE82rU/UajBd8M9MzI/AAAAAAAAAqY/DnXZYjBjVBA/s400/gezipark1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">It is hard not to be appalled by the scenes coming out of Taksim's Gezi Park, where police have swept in yet again to try and evict demonstrators protesting the park's demolition to make way for a shopping centre.</span><o:p></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Police have used pepper spray and water cannon and batons to break the groups up. People wearing gasmasks – strongly suspected to be plainclothes officers – have been pictured setting fire to the demonstrators' tents. Dozens have been arrested, many others injured. The tear gas is so pungent and pervasive that Istanbul metro services into Taksim have had to be cancelled. And yet a further wave of protests is planned, meeting in Taksim at 7pm this evening.</span><o:p></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /><a name='more'></a></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The armed response is typical of Turkey's trigger-happy police and should shock no-one. Turkish police has a history of ruthless violence and has never demonstrated much regard for the consequences of its actions. I described them as "thugs above the law" in response <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2007/02/thugs-above-law-turkish-police-today.html">to their treatment of women on a Women's Day demonstration</a> in 2005 and it is clear nothing has changed.</span><o:p></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">It is the attitude of the ruling AK Party government to the past week's developments that is alarming because it is characteristic of an administration that has spent too long in power and become too sure of itself. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has dismissed the numerous legal challenges launched to the Gezi Park development as a distraction. "There will be no step back," he has confidently declared. His interior minister <a href="http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/23409178.asp" target="_blank">said</a> "they had no other choice".&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">To sustain the British comparison, consider Margaret Thatcher's response to the </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_Tax_Riots" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Poll Tax riots of March 1990</a><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">, when dozens were injured in riots that broke out in protest to a change in local government taxation. Then, as now, a stubborn, hawkish prime minister promised to plough on regardless. In Mrs Thatcher's case, she was out of office by the end of the year.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;"><o:p></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">It is interesting that complete support for the police and its methods is not a universal sentiment among the AK Party's ranks. The deputy prime minister Bülent Arınç, for example, has not been as vocal as Mr Erdoğan, and <a href="https://twitter.com/bulent_arinc/status/340429851372711936">even took to Twitter</a> to deny reports that his son or any of his relatives were partners in the proposed shopping mall.</span><o:p></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The Gezi Park plans have been public for some years now, but the question of whether the demonstrators are justified in their aims has now become irrelevant. A story about a local redevelopment has been placed firmly into the national consciousness. The more pictures that we see of injured demonstrators being attacked by armoured police officers, the more out of touch Turkey’s prime minister will appear.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-15393804019569068602013-05-21T17:49:00.000+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.156+02:00Defining 'Turk': a constitutional barrier overcome?<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Reverse psychology can be a wonderful thing. Just at Turkey's prime minister again cast doubt on his country ever having a new, cross-party constitution, the commission charged with writing that document appears to have accelerated its work.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="227" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vm-MXYcIl9c/UZuIhFcl4XI/AAAAAAAAAqE/ha8Dt9HOWmQ/s400/ahmet-turk-k.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="400" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ahmet Türk</td></tr></tbody></table><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It was on Sunday that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters following him on his trip in the United States that he was "losing hope" over the constitution-writing process. <a href="http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/?hn=417590">He continued</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"If there is no solution, we will follow our Plan C and use our own [draft constitution] template. We have 326 MPs and, as you know, it will be a secret ballot, so perhaps a few brave souls will emerge despite their own party's pressure. If we can get the numbers, we will take it to a referendum."<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The said parliamentary commission is made up of twelve MPs, three each from the governing AK Party and opposition Republican People's (CHP), Nationalist Movement (MHP) and Peace and Democracy (BDP) parties, and chaired by the speaker, AK Party MP Cemil Çiçek.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The prime minister’s Plan C refers to oft-repeated AK Party threats to team up with the pro-Kurdish BDP and other opposition rebels to reach the magic 367 number, a two-thirds seat majority, which would allow the government to change the constitution unilaterally.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><br /><a name='more'></a></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And that might just happen, because the commission’s progress has been torturously slow: members have agreed on just thirty articles in the year to April (the <a href="http://www.anayasa.gen.tr/english.htm">1982 Constitution</a> the commission hopes to replace, by way of comparison, has 177 articles, and that's before you count as many as twenty 'temporary' addendums).&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Things picked up pace a little this past month, with a further ten articles agreed in the 'Basic rights and freedoms' category and CHP member Atilla Kart expressing hope that they could add a further fifteen by the end of the month.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But that is still not fast enough and time is running out. The commission's working mandate has already been extended repeatedly, most recently to 30 June, and Mr Erdoğan is not alone in his frustration at its pedestrian efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The most challenging issue is not time - the mandate can easily be extended beyond the end of June - but content. The commission has proved utterly inept at agreeing constitutional language for some of Turkey's most contentious issues, be it as religious rights (specifically, how much they extend to non-Muslims) or the right to an education in a mother tongue (and whether Kurdish counts as one).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But it's not all bad. Two Kurdish MPs, Ahmet Türk and Nazmi Gür, <a href="http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/id/25443950">signalled today</a> during their own visit to the United States that the debate over the definition of 'Turk' might be shorter than expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Turkey's ethnic minorities have long demanded explicit constitutional protection of their identities and many have objected to the use of 'Turk' as an umbrella term that encompasses all ethnicities in the country. Some have gone so far as to call from its removal from the constitution entirely.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nationalists - particularly those in the MHP - have demanded the opposite, that everyone in the country be considered a Turk, plain and simple. It’s an approach that is abhorrent to many Kurds.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But not all Kurds: Messrs Türk and Gür said they had no objections to the use of 'Turk' in the constitution. In fact, they went further.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"We have no demand for terms like Turk, Kurd, Laz or Circassian to be written in the constitution," Mr Türk said. "[Our opponents] repeatedly say that Turkishness will be lost, but we have no objection to Turkishness being worked into every page. We just want different cultures and identities to be protected, to not be renounced, to have their rights recognised.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"We have no issue with Turkishness or the Turkish people. After all, this is the Republic of Turkey's constitution. If you feel the need for it, write a section outlining the rights of the Turkish people; just don't reject diversity."<o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This raises expectations that a solution could found along the lines of Turkey’s 1924 constitution, <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/03/what-is-turk-which-1924-definition-does.html">as espoused by President Abdullah G<span lang="TR">ül</span></a><span lang="TR">.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><br /></div><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But solving the ‘Turk’ problem will simply make way for others, most notably Mr Erdoğan's <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2012/02/after-erdogan.html">long-cherished hopes</a> of an executive presidency.</span></div><br /><br /><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-52803391028716092522013-04-16T19:57:00.001+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.163+02:00Fazıl Say, Emre Bukağılı and an unending conflict in Turkish society<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tnPpN0rjWdM/UW1-BxdcEEI/AAAAAAAAApQ/t6HfvwxWDtc/s1600/Fazil_Say009.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img alt="Fazıl Say" border="0" height="200" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tnPpN0rjWdM/UW1-BxdcEEI/AAAAAAAAApQ/t6HfvwxWDtc/s200/Fazil_Say009.jpg" title="Fazıl Say" width="180" /></a>&nbsp;<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fBHWPw0f0AA/UW19hz9VRfI/AAAAAAAAApE/v7tDI4VEOU0/s1600/emre7.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img alt="Emre Bukağılı" border="0" height="200" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fBHWPw0f0AA/UW19hz9VRfI/AAAAAAAAApE/v7tDI4VEOU0/s200/emre7.jpg" title="Emre Bukağılı" width="180" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another artist was persecuted for offending Turkey's nouveau establishment this week when the pianist Fazıl Say <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/world/middleeast/turkish-pianist-sentenced-for-twitter-postings.html" target="_blank">was handed an eight month prison sentence</a> for comments he made on Twitter. His tweets from last April, long since removed from his @FazilSayOfficial account, were deemed to be&nbsp;blasphemous and offensive to the country's Muslim population.&nbsp;</span><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Among the offending tweets was one posted on 5 April 2012 that read: "This muezzin finished the evening call to prayer in 22 seconds. Prestissimmo con fuoco! What's the hurry?&nbsp;A woman? A rakı drinking table?" In other tweets he quoted preachings on the afterlife attributed to an 11th century Islamic theologian and commented: "is heaven a brothel?" <a href="http://tashlik.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/normal-0-21-false-false-false-tr-x-none.html" target="_blank"><i>Tashlik </i>has a good summary</a> (scroll down for English) of the tweets.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p>Fazıl Say is a vocal critic of the government, which helped to attract extensive coverage&nbsp;</o:p></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">of the outcome to his trial&nbsp;</span><o:p style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">in Turkey and abroad</o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. There are three observations that can be drawn from his conviction.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /><a name='more'></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, his sentencing exposed some of the bizarre checks and moderations that can affect a prison sentence in Turkey. Guilty of "belittling the religious values assumed by a section of the population", he was initially sentenced to eight months in prison. That was increased to twelve months because the act took place on the Internet, a publishing organ, which in Turkish law compounds the severity of any offence. It was then reduced by one-sixth to eight months because of Mr Say's good behaviour during the trial. It's as if the judge was playing with a yo-yo.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Second, Mr Say's sentence was suspended, a relatively novel concept in Turkey's criminal code, having only been introduced in 2006. For all the criticism of the ruling AK Party for embracing this sentence - much of which is justified - it's important to remember that it is because of changes brought under this government that convictions like these do not place the offender behind bars. Think <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2006/08/trying-orhan-pamuk-yes-i-daresay.html" target="">Orhan Pamuk</a> or <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2006/09/article-301-release-michael-dickinson.html" target="">Michael Dickinson</a>, both of whom faced prison for offending somebody, as examples of what could have happened to Mr Say. He just has to be on his best behaviour for the next five years.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The third and most important point, however, is that Mr Say faced trial because he was handpicked by a political opponent. One of his complainants, an engineer called Ali Emre Bukağılı, has a history of being offended by atheists. He has filed cases against the likes of Richard Dawkins, whose website was briefly banned in Turkey some years ago. He praised yesterday's court ruling as "the right decision" and <a href="https://twitter.com/AliEmreB/status/323759110568964096" target="_blank">vowed to watch</a> Mr Say's comments for the duration of his suspended sentence. There is clearly a vendetta there.&nbsp;</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fazıl Say's tweets were flippant, provocative and outspoken, just as he often is. Whether or not they were insulting is a subjective question; rather like making jokes about Catholic priests and young children, there are some who will find them funny and others downright offensive.&nbsp;</span></div><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><o:p style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rather than lamenting the law or the government, Turkish people should be worried about their compatriots, those in their society who use the law to seek reparations for their hurt feelings.&nbsp;</o:p><o:p style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mr&nbsp;</o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bukağılı is one such person; another example is t</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">he lawyer&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;ved=0CDcQFjAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FKemal_Kerin%25C3%25A7siz&amp;ei=enltUcSVFojw0gWTwoCYDw&amp;usg=AFQjCNHJnf7YNc2K2dgyRn9VV9Oa_2lCYw&amp;sig2=_5L62bgka9K0NGlCa9bFDQ&amp;bvm=bv.45175338,d.d2k" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Kemal Kerinçsiz</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, who filed the original case against Mr Pamuk. He was subsequently&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">himself</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">&nbsp;arrested and is currently being tried for alleged membership of the shadowy Ergenekon network.&nbsp;</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/23053478.asp" target="_blank">An excellent column in <i>Hürriyet</i></a>,&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">referring to&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mr Bukağılı</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">&nbsp;by only his initials presumably in fear of legal repercussions, quotes him as saying he believes in freedom of expression, but only if it does not offend him personally.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Speaking in 2011, he</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">&nbsp;defended the practice of censoring criticism of religion by saying "o</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ther people have no need to read a book that offends me".</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These are warped attitudes &nbsp;and everyone should be concerned about them.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The trouble is that Turkish society's attitudes are going through a revolution and until its myriad components learn to better tolerate one another, cases like that of Fazıl Say will keep coming.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-60105280650849665832013-03-31T16:59:00.000+03:002013-10-31T21:30:24.167+02:00More than a quarter of Turkish voters are undecided<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="http://www.haberturk.com/polemik/haber/827662-bugun-secim-olsa-kime-oy-verirsiniz" target="_blank">latest regular Konsensus survey for Haberturk</a> might not appear to throw up any voting intention surprises on first glance. AK Party holds its a clear lead (36.8%) with the CHP losing support (17.5%) and the MHP keeping firm (11.1%). The BDP trails on 3.6%, other parties were 3.5%.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On a uniform swing projection, that would give the <b>AK Party 317</b> seats (down ten from the 2011 election), the <b>CHP 137</b> (up two) and the <b>MHP 61</b> (up eight). That would be a healthy AK majority.</span><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EDhQxAU_wMA/UWg65y09xJI/AAAAAAAAAos/lI99sjLNMHo/s1600/2013-04-12+Konsensus+swing+projection.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EDhQxAU_wMA/UWg65y09xJI/AAAAAAAAAos/lI99sjLNMHo/s1600/2013-04-12+Konsensus+swing+projection.jpg" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The figures I quote above are based on voters who said they definitely would vote. A huge number did not support any party: 12.3% of those polled told Konsensus that they had not made their mind. A further 5.6% said they would not vote or would spoil their ballot, while 9.6% refused to answer the question.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's 27.5%, more than a quarter of the sample, representing a huge portion of the Turkish electorate that is waiting to be convinced.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-48614390656756348932013-03-22T20:59:00.000+02:002013-03-22T20:59:36.599+02:00Turkey and Israel: the ambiguous peace<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RJ_SmFk3ReY/UUycalm7hjI/AAAAAAAAAoE/UQL3cG2piQY/s1600/obamanetanyahu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="310" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RJ_SmFk3ReY/UUycalm7hjI/AAAAAAAAAoE/UQL3cG2piQY/s400/obamanetanyahu.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">What a difference even an unpopular US president can make.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his first phone call in four years to his Turkish counterpart this afternoon. During the 30 minute conversation, he apologised for Israel's role in Mavi Marmara incident and agreed to discuss compensation for the families of the nine Turkish victims.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Both sides are to send their ambassadors back at once, reports suggest, a move which would restore full diplomatic relations. Mr Netanyahu also made a number of overtures on the entry of civilian goods into Palestinian territories, an issue about which Mr Erd</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">oğan has been vocal.</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Barack Obama’s role in making the phone call happen appears to be pivotal.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">As always with these things, the precise language is important. Israeli national security advisor Yaakov Amidror and Feridun Sinirlioğlu, who as undersecretary is essentially the man to know at Turkey's foreign ministry, <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/netanyahu-phones-erdogan-to-apologize-for-deaths-of-turkish-citizens-on-gaza-flotilla.premium-1.511394">had met in Rome recently</a> to thrash out a form of words both sides could agree upon - but they failed. The task clearly fell above their pay grades.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">So it is curious that the precise terms of this apology are somewhat ambiguous.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"></span></div><a name='more'></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">According to Haaretz, Mr Netanyahu "expressed his apologies to the Turkish people for <b>any error </b>that could have led to loss of life", according to Haaretz quoting the Israeli prime minister's office. That is roughly the form of words used in the <a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EE6dAe4wgnE/UUyc5dWhzxI/AAAAAAAAAoU/AZwmtBFyltY/s1600/english.jpg" target="_blank">English press release</a> put out by Mr Erdo</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">ğan’s office – they use “mistakes” instead of “error”.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">But the <a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s_5NCVkltfo/UUyc4rCP49I/AAAAAAAAAoM/vGOk6Y-9kaE/s1600/turkish.jpg" target="_blank">corresponding statement in Turkish</a> says Mr Netanyahu "expressed Israel's apologies to the Turkish people for <b>all mistakes</b>that led to loss of life or injury" (translation and emphasis my own).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The Turkish version says there were errors in the Mavi Marmara mission and apologises for them all. Haaretz’s quotation suggests the question of whether there were errors is not settled, but offers an apology if any were made.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">It quite neatly represents both countries’ positions on the incident: Turkey believes the Israeli Defence Forces were entirely at fault and demanded a complete apology; Israel says it did some things wrong, but that its forces were provoked.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">If Haaretz’s quote accurately reflects Israel’s position – the Israeli prime minister’s website is offline at the moment – then it seems Turkey and Israel made their peace today by saying kind words to each other but without changing their minds in the slightest.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">But this should not detract from the importance of what happened this afternoon. When Israel and Turkey last enjoyed full diplomatic relations, Hosni Mubarak was still president of Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi was leader of Libya and Syria was a stable country. The Arab spring showed everyone how important it is for the Middle East’s two strongest democracies to get along with one another. Now, finally, it looks like they might.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">UPDATE 8.02PM: </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The Israeli PM’s office is still offline, but the Turkish PM’s website has been updated to include separate statements released by Turkey and Israel. The “any error / all mistakes” discrepancy described above remains in place, however.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-75700099720727778892013-03-21T18:43:00.000+02:002013-03-21T18:43:06.487+02:00The first step of the peace process: a PKK ceasefire<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lYsWFUKP5PQ/UUs39hgXGSI/AAAAAAAAAn4/fPJl1KfLKIk/s1600/nowruz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lYsWFUKP5PQ/UUs39hgXGSI/AAAAAAAAAn4/fPJl1KfLKIk/s400/nowruz.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What happened this morning is quite extraordinary.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, released a message calling for peace in southeast Turkey.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tens of thousands of people turned out in Diyarbakır to hear it.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The message, to mark the Kurdish new year of Nowruz, was read out in Kurdish and Turkish.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The PKK leader called for his organisation's armed militants to retreat across the border back into northern Iraq. He did not ask them to disarm.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></o:p></div><a name='more'></a><br /> <div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Police were heavily present at the event, but there were no major disturbances.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was grumpy that only Kurdish flags – and no Turkish star-and-crescent – was flown at the rally. His interior minister said he "violently condemned" that omission.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the mood of the prime minister, who is visiting the Netherlands today, <a href="http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/id/25430369/">was generally accommodating</a>. He described Abdullah Öcalan's call on militants to leave Turkey as "a positive development" and added he was waiting to see whether it would be obeyed. If it is, he said, the military operation in the region would "end of its own accord".<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The governing AK Party's cautious optimism was met with outrage from the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and utter silence from the Republican People's Party (CHP).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The MHP leader, Devlet Bahçeli, was scathing: "We do not recognise the Nowruz in Diyarbakır. A Nowruz celebrated in this manner is not this nation's festival. A celebration without the Turkish flag cannot contain messages of brotherhood and unity. The Turkish nation is watching this scenario as a lesson of disgrace.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"This," he continued, "is the beginning of separatism."<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">CHP MPs, meanwhile, have been <a href="http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/22869157.asp">ordered by their leader</a>not to comment in the media.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A ceasefire was always going to be only the first step in a long and difficult peace process. But that does not make it any less significant. A Turkey that no longer deploys troops against its own citizens will be a stronger, freer one. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is important not to forget that previous ceasefires have been declared and all have fallen through. This one needs to stick.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-49155756778635695172013-03-21T14:42:00.000+02:002013-03-21T14:45:20.676+02:00Erdoğan on anti-Semitism: is this really an apology?<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zL50Fks305w/UUr_FxXBTtI/AAAAAAAAAns/3-BPY0TT3BI/s1600/erdogan-a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="197" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zL50Fks305w/UUr_FxXBTtI/AAAAAAAAAns/3-BPY0TT3BI/s320/erdogan-a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">As Barack Obama tours Israel and the Palestinian territories, Turkish media has seized on Recep Tayyip Erdo</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">ğan’s remarks during his concurrent visit to Denmark.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">“Erdoğan clarifies his comments on Zionism”, <a href="http://siyaset.milliyet.com.tr/erdogan-siyonizm-ile-ilgili-sozlerine-aciklik-getirdi/siyaset/siyasetdetay/20.03.2013/1682638/default.htm" target="_blank">Milliyet reported yesterday</a>, quoting comments the prime minister made to the Danish daily Politiken. What he actually did was clarify his views on Israel and Palestine – views that we already knew.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Politiken put it to Mr Erdoğan that his remarks last month were understood by some to question the very legitimacy of Israel’s existence and asked whether this was correct.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The prime minister responded,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> amply,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">with Turkey’s official line: he is critical of Israeli policy and the current government, not the state of Israel. He supports a two-state solution. He frequently condemns anti-Semitism. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The crucial sentence is his final one: “In this context, I stand behind my remarks in Vienna.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /><a name='more'></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">So in his first public remarks on the matter since speaking at the UN conference in February, the prime minister has offered neither an apology, nor a withdrawal.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">But does Mr Erdoğan truly believe Zionism is a crime against humanity? In the humble opinion of this blog, no. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">We stand behind the explanation of Mr Erdoğan's behaviour <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/03/erdogan-on-zionism.html">we offered in our post three weeks ago</a>: that he was speaking off the cuff and was hastily putting together a list of three. It was certainly offensive to bundle Zionism into that list, and the prime minister has clearly failed to understand that impact, but to suggest he truly believes it to be a crime against humanity is a step too far.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">This piece in <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/erdogan-zionism-remarks-obama-israel-visit.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor speculates</a> Mr Erdo</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">ğan’s “</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">softened” latest remarks were made to coincide with Mr Obama’s Middle East visit, because the Turkish prime minister has fallen out of grace in Washington as of late.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The full Erdo</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">ğan</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> interview is available on Politiken’s English website <a href="http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/ECE1925950/exclusive-erdogan-interview--we-see-a-human-tragedy-before-our-eyes/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-64890854026721362592013-03-19T17:19:00.000+02:002013-03-19T17:24:39.982+02:00Erdoğan passes Menderes’s record, becomes third-longest serving prime minister<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-K5n-Jspm8Ac/UUiBc54K3rI/AAAAAAAAAnc/3OniYUQqFrs/s1600/league+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-K5n-Jspm8Ac/UUiBc54K3rI/AAAAAAAAAnc/3OniYUQqFrs/s1600/league+table.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cumulative days served as of 19 March 2013</span></i></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="TR">Today Recep Tayyip Erdoğan </span>marks his 3,658th day as Turkey’s prime minister, equalling Adnan Menderes’s record. Tomorrow, he assumes Menderes’s spot as Turkey’s third-longest serving prime minister. If he is still in post on Wednesday 14 August 2013, which is likely, Mr <span lang="TR">Erdoğan will rise to number two.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="TR"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is a week for milestones in the incumbent prime minister’s career. Last Thursday he marked ten years since assuming the premiership after <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siirt_(electoral_district)#2003">winning the Siirt by-election</a> and becoming an MP for the first time.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="TR"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Adnan Menderes led Turkey’s first opposition party to be elected to office, the Democrat Party. He became prime minister in 1950, leading his party into three successive elections until he was toppled in a coup on 27 May 1960, his own 3,658th day. He was subsequently tried and hanged by the new regime.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><a name='more'></a><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="TR"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Happily for Turkish democracy, Mr Erdoğan’s fate today won’t be the same. But the milestone comes at a time of intense speculation over how long he will be staying in post. Plans of establishing an executive presidency for himself as a side-effect of a <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/02/talking-to-prisoner.html">possible Kurdish peace deal</a> have been widely reported, although this is unlikely to happen this year, given that a commission charged with writing Turkey’s new constitution is not due to report back until the <a href="http://www.haberturk.com/yazarlar/amberin-zaman/828781-baskanlik-sistemi-gelmeden-baris-olur-mu">end of October</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="TR"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By that time, Mr Erdoğan will have exceeded the 3,805 days cumulatively served as prime minister by Süleyman Demirel. He is expected to lead his party into local elections in March 2014 and the next general election is scheduled for the year after – but a new constitution could bring that forward.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="TR"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Regardless of when he fights the elections, he will still be some way off reaching the uninterrupted 4,618 days of İsmet İnönü, in post betwen 1925 and 1937. Mr Erdoğan would equal İnönü’s record on 4 November 2015 – but one gets the feeling Turkey will have a different prime minister by then.&nbsp;</span></span></div><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-26680635082896034062013-03-09T14:06:00.000+02:002013-03-09T14:06:49.242+02:00Safe or stuffed? Who falls foul of AK's three term rule<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sl9s7723pso/UTsluRrih-I/AAAAAAAAAnE/VnYFgwO7Fjw/s1600/safeorstuffed.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sl9s7723pso/UTsluRrih-I/AAAAAAAAAnE/VnYFgwO7Fjw/s1600/safeorstuffed.png" /></a></div><br />If you look at article 132 of the by-laws that govern Turkey's ruling AK Party, you will find a clause that is sensible and democratic. It imposes a strict three term limit on MPs and mayors, presumably to ensure youth and vigour and prevent cults of personality among the party's ranks.<br /><table></table><br /><table></table>The <a href="http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/akparti/parti-tuzugu">article reads</a>:<br /><table></table><blockquote class="tr_bq">Article 132: Repeat candidacy of elected party candidates<br /><table></table><br /><table></table>Mayors and members of parliament who become a candidate from an AK Party list and are subsequently elected can be a candidate for a maximum three terms.</blockquote>But this was written when the party was established, before its 2002 election victory that surprised everyone, including the founders, and well before the 2007 and 2011 elections, where the victories were even greater.<br /><br />Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has come to adopt a looser interpretation of article 132. The three term limit remains, he says, but it's perfectly possible to take a break for one term and then return. It is also possible for third term MPs to go off and spend a term as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egemen_Bagis" target="_blank">mayor of Istanbul</a>, for example, and then return to parliament afterwards.<br /><br /><a name='more'></a>Another flaw with the article is that the big man himself is affected by it. The prime minister has repeatedly declared he will not serve a fourth term; rather than modify his own party's by-laws, he would <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2012/05/two-faces-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan.html" target="_blank">rather change the constitution</a> to make himself a French-style president with executive powers.<br /><br />Mr Erdoğan's ill-disguised ambitions do a pretty good job of disguising the effect of the three-term rule on the rest of his cabinet, however. 16 ministers - that's nearly two-thirds of his cabinet - will be unable to stand as MPs at the next general election, which under current rules is due for 2015.<br /><br />Rumours abound on who, particularly among the cabinet's baby boomers, will retire and who will conveniently find work leading a largish council for three or four years. We'll consider some of those in another entry; for now, here is our guide to who's stuffed and who's safe.<br /><br /><br /><table><tbody><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mOQmk_4ac_k/UTsPa4o-KgI/AAAAAAAAAjM/d_LPyveY6oU/s1600/erdogan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mOQmk_4ac_k/UTsPa4o-KgI/AAAAAAAAAjM/d_LPyveY6oU/s1600/erdogan.jpg" /></a></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1ebKH2foPVE/UTsPe6EPZQI/AAAAAAAAAjU/9q6QHHZf11U/s1600/arinc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1ebKH2foPVE/UTsPe6EPZQI/AAAAAAAAAjU/9q6QHHZf11U/s1600/arinc.jpg" /></a></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lrKhVIW3pmM/UTsSkm3DWeI/AAAAAAAAAjk/7VgvOgvShpw/s1600/atalay.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lrKhVIW3pmM/UTsSkm3DWeI/AAAAAAAAAjk/7VgvOgvShpw/s1600/atalay.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;Recep Tayyip Erdoğan</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Prime Minister</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 9 March 2003</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: red;"><b>STUFFED</b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Bülent Arınç</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Deputy PM</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Beşir Atalay </h3><h4 style="text-align: center;"> Deputy PM</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TP0IaaDVG6I/UTsSksEN78I/AAAAAAAAAjw/07fUJ_-oyaY/s1600/babacan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TP0IaaDVG6I/UTsSksEN78I/AAAAAAAAAjw/07fUJ_-oyaY/s1600/babacan.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpcRNyh3fOE/UTsSkqBjldI/AAAAAAAAAjo/oCL8cbqz9wE/s1600/bozdag.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IpcRNyh3fOE/UTsSkqBjldI/AAAAAAAAAjo/oCL8cbqz9wE/s1600/bozdag.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZJbpuK6yioo/UTsTRbWTkNI/AAAAAAAAAj4/ldzYMjxT72U/s1600/davutoglu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZJbpuK6yioo/UTsTRbWTkNI/AAAAAAAAAj4/ldzYMjxT72U/s1600/davutoglu.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp; Ali Babacan </h3><h4 style="text-align: center;"> Deputy PM</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-weight: normal;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Bekir Bozdağ</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Deputy PM</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Ahmet Davutoğlu</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Foreign affairs</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 12 June 2011</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE</b></span></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hwRa_6tbTq4/UTsUhc4pxbI/AAAAAAAAAkI/43z3VvYfM0s/s1600/guler.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hwRa_6tbTq4/UTsUhc4pxbI/AAAAAAAAAkI/43z3VvYfM0s/s1600/guler.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nH-gkspYVGw/UTsUkpO2gUI/AAAAAAAAAkU/sqVyjHmOQSk/s1600/ergin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nH-gkspYVGw/UTsUkpO2gUI/AAAAAAAAAkU/sqVyjHmOQSk/s1600/ergin.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zM2NuEQLKpU/UTsUklK4QiI/AAAAAAAAAkY/kJnNm_VZPHM/s1600/simsek.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zM2NuEQLKpU/UTsUklK4QiI/AAAAAAAAAkY/kJnNm_VZPHM/s1600/simsek.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp; Muammer Güler</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Interior affairs</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 12 June 2011</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE</b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Sadullah Ergin</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Justice</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Mehmet Şimşek</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Finance</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 22 July 2007</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE</b></span></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y0RLq-hr0Go/UTsVvmsfirI/AAAAAAAAAkc/OPndZtuzU1k/s1600/muezzinoglu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y0RLq-hr0Go/UTsVvmsfirI/AAAAAAAAAkc/OPndZtuzU1k/s1600/muezzinoglu.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9Azkcc4KJzA/UTsVv9GkVcI/AAAAAAAAAkw/6QxCk6HvCHs/s1600/yilmaz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9Azkcc4KJzA/UTsVv9GkVcI/AAAAAAAAAkw/6QxCk6HvCHs/s1600/yilmaz.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GO8HXyOYzcY/UTsVv4cgt0I/AAAAAAAAAks/rGA1S9MlZKo/s1600/avci.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GO8HXyOYzcY/UTsVv4cgt0I/AAAAAAAAAks/rGA1S9MlZKo/s1600/avci.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;Mehmet Müezzinoğlu</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Health</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 22 July 2007</span></div><div><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE</b></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">İsmet Yılmaz</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Defence</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 12 June 2011</span></div><div><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE&nbsp;</b></span></div></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Nabi Avcı</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Education</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 12 June 2011</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE&nbsp;</b></span></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-35O7t2rIoGc/UTsWuVWO_NI/AAAAAAAAAk4/0zHBCI-gUPs/s1600/bagis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-35O7t2rIoGc/UTsWuVWO_NI/AAAAAAAAAk4/0zHBCI-gUPs/s1600/bagis.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5OyQdjh3Gg8/UTsWucbzeKI/AAAAAAAAAlA/35dDZxX4kfE/s1600/caglayan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5OyQdjh3Gg8/UTsWucbzeKI/AAAAAAAAAlA/35dDZxX4kfE/s1600/caglayan.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TZrd0tkN0Nc/UTsWuezDm2I/AAAAAAAAAlI/KtrlgQV2nzk/s1600/yildirim.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TZrd0tkN0Nc/UTsWuezDm2I/AAAAAAAAAlI/KtrlgQV2nzk/s1600/yildirim.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;Egemen Bağış</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">European Union affairs</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Zafer Çağlayan</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Economy&nbsp;</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 22 July 2007</span></div><div><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE</b></span></div></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Binali Yıldırım</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Transport, communications</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b><span style="color: lime;"><b>&nbsp;</b></span></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RGbN_XrPw3U/UTsXnfuPm1I/AAAAAAAAAlQ/Vlyoj_oeiWs/s1600/eker.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RGbN_XrPw3U/UTsXnfuPm1I/AAAAAAAAAlQ/Vlyoj_oeiWs/s1600/eker.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4aDBN8Akj9Y/UTsXnWizgpI/AAAAAAAAAlg/pYMC-E20IEI/s1600/bayraktar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4aDBN8Akj9Y/UTsXnWizgpI/AAAAAAAAAlg/pYMC-E20IEI/s1600/bayraktar.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_57F4SZ4Xoo/UTsXneiElhI/AAAAAAAAAlc/gyiNIiLYvmY/s1600/eroglu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_57F4SZ4Xoo/UTsXneiElhI/AAAAAAAAAlc/gyiNIiLYvmY/s1600/eroglu.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;Mehmet Mehdi Eker</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Food and agriculture</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Erdoğan Bayraktar</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Environment and cities</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 12 June 2011</span></div><div><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE&nbsp;</b></span></div></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Veysel Eroğlu</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Forests and water</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 12 June 2011</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE&nbsp;</b></span></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KjVuP8grPvQ/UTsY_yD9pxI/AAAAAAAAAlo/yP-s4nBNBGQ/s1600/cyilmaz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KjVuP8grPvQ/UTsY_yD9pxI/AAAAAAAAAlo/yP-s4nBNBGQ/s1600/cyilmaz.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H3YOetTus1A/UTsY_8ly_-I/AAAAAAAAAl0/bmeEjNX7fqA/s1600/yildiz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H3YOetTus1A/UTsY_8ly_-I/AAAAAAAAAl0/bmeEjNX7fqA/s1600/yildiz.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tC2Dw9q5hJ0/UTsZDVHpUuI/AAAAAAAAAl8/rJEV4LA8M9U/s1600/ergun.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tC2Dw9q5hJ0/UTsZDVHpUuI/AAAAAAAAAl8/rJEV4LA8M9U/s1600/ergun.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;Cevdet Yılmaz</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Development</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 22 July 2007</span></div><div><span style="color: lime;"><b>SAFE</b></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Taner Yıldız</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Energy, natural resources</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Nihat Ergün</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Science and industry</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b><b style="color: lime;">&nbsp;</b></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6RbQD7obv0c/UTsaGv5INnI/AAAAAAAAAmI/6YtvqygyCq8/s1600/celik.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6RbQD7obv0c/UTsaGv5INnI/AAAAAAAAAmI/6YtvqygyCq8/s1600/celik.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jvOP48hczzE/UTsaGsm7GjI/AAAAAAAAAmU/tC59UdLCjIQ/s1600/ocelik.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jvOP48hczzE/UTsaGsm7GjI/AAAAAAAAAmU/tC59UdLCjIQ/s1600/ocelik.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-D4AtFyXDjJM/UTsaGlf8GFI/AAAAAAAAAmQ/bijjS0omIh4/s1600/sahin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-D4AtFyXDjJM/UTsaGlf8GFI/AAAAAAAAAmQ/bijjS0omIh4/s1600/sahin.jpg" /></a></div></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;Faruk Çelik</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Work, social security</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Ömer Çelik</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Culture and tourism</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Fatma Şahin</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Family and social policies</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b><b style="color: lime;">&nbsp;</b></div></td></tr><tr><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AcjDv1TZP1U/UTsa4MePVtI/AAAAAAAAAmY/qXCtaFJ4XDs/s1600/kilic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AcjDv1TZP1U/UTsa4MePVtI/AAAAAAAAAmY/qXCtaFJ4XDs/s1600/kilic.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hDQFKHxKgnY/UTsa4OFgaHI/AAAAAAAAAmk/4pcxqxdA6Hw/s1600/yazici.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hDQFKHxKgnY/UTsa4OFgaHI/AAAAAAAAAmk/4pcxqxdA6Hw/s1600/yazici.jpg" /></a></div></div></td><td><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">&nbsp; Suat Kılıç</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Youth and sport</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;">Hayati Yazıcı</h3><h4 style="text-align: center;">Customs and trade</h4><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Elected 3 November 2002</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: red;">STUFFED</b></div></td><td valign="top"><h3 style="text-align: center;"></h3><h4 style="text-align: center;"></h4><div style="text-align: center;"></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"></td><td valign="top"></td><td valign="top"></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-52342184127405596792013-03-08T17:00:00.000+02:002013-03-08T17:00:37.370+02:00Gezici poll shows slight drop in AKP support<br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A new general election opinion poll from Gezici Araştırma <a href="http://haber.gazetevatan.com/son-secim-anketi/519793/1/gundem" target="_blank">appeared in Vatan</a> on Wednesday. The headline figures with changes from their last survey in January are <b>AKP 43.0 </b>(-2.7),<b> CHP 28.0 </b>(+1.1), <b>MHP 18.2 </b>(+0.3),<b> BDP 8.1 </b>(+2.6).</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I haven't seen full tables of the research, but Vatan's commentary suggests the AK Party lost most of its support in western and central regions, where as the CHP and MHP. The fieldwork was done over the weekend of 23-24 February, which would place it at a time when negotiations with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan was prominent in news coverage.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gezici have been showing a shallow downward trend in the governing AK Party's support since November. The main beneficiary has been the CHP, shown as up by nearly two percentage points over the last three months.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A uniform swing projection of Gezici's polling result based on the results obtained in each electoral district at the last election would produce a Grand National Assembly that looks like this:</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tz-i5L1TcBU/UTn75H8A6uI/AAAAAAAAAio/o9AM9Fyw19A/s1600/2013-02+Gezici+uns+projection.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tz-i5L1TcBU/UTn75H8A6uI/AAAAAAAAAio/o9AM9Fyw19A/s1600/2013-02+Gezici+uns+projection.jpg" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That's a healthy AK majority of 40 seats - so no real change to the shape of power.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gezici also polled voting intention for next year's local elections (changes from January): <b>AKP 38.6 </b>(-1.2)<b>, CHP 28.6 </b>(-0.9)<b>, MHP 19.8 </b>(+1.4)<b>, BDP 7.6</b> (+1.1). It suggests trouble is afoot for AK Party councils, but national results based on local election questions will invariably be affected by where in the country people were polled.</span><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-29708598105621756082013-03-01T19:48:00.001+02:002013-03-02T03:16:14.699+02:00What is a Turk? Which 1924 definition does Gül want?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7KegxyF4c44/UTDsOTyTfzI/AAAAAAAAAh8/3lslG25FoS4/s1600/gulcnnturk.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7KegxyF4c44/UTDsOTyTfzI/AAAAAAAAAh8/3lslG25FoS4/s400/gulcnnturk.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The most heated debate over Turkey’s new constitution is over what to call its citizens. Today, if you hold a Republic of Turkey passport you are officially a Turk. No other identity carries official recognition. That might be okay if you consider yourself an ethnic Turk, but what if you are a Kurd? Or a Circassian? Or an Armenian?</span><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One view, increasingly common these days, is that the “Turk” label should be an umbrella identity under which “ethnic sub-identities” like Kurds, Circassians and indeed ethnic Turks could fall. There are some – the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) support this line – that the umbrella identity should be called <i>Türkiyeli</i> (literally: “of Turkey”), a term hitherto mostly used by Turkish Cypriots to distinguish themselves from mainlanders. But there are others, like Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), who reject the umbrella identity entirely: to them, everyone is a Turk, plain and simple.</span><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br /><a name='more'></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As the debate goes on within the parliamentary group charged with writing the new constitution, Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gül, </span><a href="http://www.cnnturk.com/2013/turkiye/02/27/cumhurbaskanindan.onemli.aciklamalar/698215.0/index.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">weighed in on CNN Türk</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> yesterday with his thoughts. He proposed returning to the definition used by Turkey's Ataturk-era constitution from 1924.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here’s what the relevant bit of <a href="http://www.anayasa.gov.tr/index.php?l=template&amp;id=20&amp;lang=0" target="_blank">article 88 of that constitution</a> said:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the <i>ahali</i> of Turkey, without distinction of race or religion, "Turk" shall be the term of citizenship.[1]</span></blockquote></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This constitution was in force until the military coup of 1960, but it was altered before – in 1945, when the language of the entire document was updated to modern Turkish and all the Ottoman Turkish terminology flushed out.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is what the 1945 revision of article 88 said:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;"><blockquote class="tr_bq"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Turkey, without distinction of race or religion, everyone in citizenship terms shall be called a “Turk”.[2]</span></blockquote></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On first glance, there’s not a lot to separate the two. A few words have moved around, but the gist of this sentence in article 88 is that everyone in Turkey shall be called a Turk, whatever their race or religion might be.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, there was a subtle change meaning during the translation from Ottoman to modern Turkish. The difference centres on the Ottoman Turkish word <i>ahali</i>, deriving from the Arabic, which the Turkish Language Association <a href="http://www.tdk.gov.tr/index.php?option=com_gts&amp;kelime=AHAL%C4%B0">today defines as</a> "a community or society composed of people who share no other common characteristics other than their presence in the same place".<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Put simply, the original article implied Turkey is a diverse society united by common citizenship. The 1945 revision said Turkish citizenship is held by everyone irrespective of that diversity.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So understanding Mr Gül’s idea of Turkish identity really depends on which iteration of the 1924 constitution he had in mind. Turkey’s media and the Twittersphere have been quoting the latter version, probably because it is easier to understand.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But it is the earlier version that is remarkably tolerant. Of course, it is light years ahead of the current constitution, accepted in 1982 after the PKK had emerged as a militant force, which liberally sprinkles the phrase "Turkish nation" and references to "Turkish citizens" throughout.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">[1] Türkiye ahalisine din ve ırk farkı olmaksızın vatandaşlık itibariyle “Türk” ıtlak olunur.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">[2] Türkiye'de din ve ırk ayırd edilmeksizin vatandaşlık bakımından herkese “Türk” denir.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-78705772584512654512013-03-01T13:40:00.001+02:002013-03-01T13:40:22.197+02:00Erdoğan on Zionism<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nEOUHT9k41M/UTCTjriMPRI/AAAAAAAAAhs/XfZ6M9goXXw/s1600/erdoganperes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="261" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nEOUHT9k41M/UTCTjriMPRI/AAAAAAAAAhs/XfZ6M9goXXw/s400/erdoganperes.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recep Tayyip Erdo</span><span lang="TR" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ğan has </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">never been the darling of the Jewish community, but his latest comments at a UN meeting in Vienna on Wednesday will not help his reputation. He is reported as saying:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Just like Zionism, just like anti-Semitism, just like fascism, it has become unavoidable that Islamophobia is considered a crime against humanity."&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The prime minister’s use of Zionism in a list of crimes against humanity has drawn condemnation from Israel and criticism from the United States. The translation above – which you will notice differs slightly from the one <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/01/uk-israel-turkey-idUKBRE92003120130301">used by Reuters here</a> – is my own based on the Turkish words&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/turkce/haberler/2013/03/130301_erdogan_siyonizm.shtml">quoted by the BBC</a>.</span></div><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br /> <div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I haven’t yet come across video or audio footage of the remarks, so I can’t study his inflection. However, based on the Turkish words attributed to him it seems to me he was speaking off the cuff. It comes across as the words of someone trying to put together a list of three that would reinforce a point in an argument – in this case, that Islamaphobia should be a crime against humanity – rather than someone singling out Zionism as one such crime.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Perhaps that’s why the United Nations statement <a href="http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=304993">condemning Mr Er<span lang="TR">doğan</span><span lang="EN-US">’s comments</span></a>&nbsp;carried a proviso:&nbsp;<span lang="EN-US">"if the comment about Zionism was interpreted correctly."&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is – at best – a very clumsy use of language. It destroys the legitimate point about Islamaphobia he was trying to make. It is also quite in keeping with the prime minister’s character: he may well be a shrewd political operator and the most popular Turkish leader since Ataturk, but he can’t half put his foot in his mouth.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For evidence, if you needed any, consider the prime minister on <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/02/erdogan-on-british-press-freedom.html" target="_blank">British press freedom</a>. Or <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2012/05/two-faces-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan.html">abortion</a>. <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But his rhetoric can also be masterful. Take any of his famous speeches from the balcony of his AK Party headquarters <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2007/07/resounding-victory-that-now-needs.html" target="_blank">following an election victory</a>. Or when he called on Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2011/02/did-erdogan-tell-mubarak-to-go-kind-of.html">to step down</a>. Or, yes, when he <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2010/01/dangerous-tantrums-and-casual.html">criticised a culture association</a> in Eski<span lang="TR">şehir for displaying&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US">an anti-Semitic poster.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is no doubt Mr Erdo<span lang="TR">ğan is an ardent critic of Israel and&nbsp;</span><span lang="EN-US">an equally vocal opponent of Zionism as an ideology. But unlike his <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2011/02/erbakan-leader-who-offered-something.html">former mentor Necmettin Erbakan</a>, he does not frequently cite Zionism as “an evil” in his speeches. And it is important to remember that although relations between Turkey and Israel are at historic lows today, they did not reach that stage immediately after Mr Erdo</span><span lang="TR">ğan came to power: the two countries had perfectly cordial relations until events in Gaza and on board the <i>Mavi Marmara </i>took hold. Turkish-Israel relations stopped far sooner at the start of the ill-fated Erbakan premiership.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The trouble is that the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s best speeches come when they are scripted and carefully considered. It is when he goes off the autocue that he becomes a liability.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But will he apologise? Don't bank on it.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-31130806436420706112013-02-25T22:50:00.001+02:002013-02-25T23:16:50.219+02:00Erdoğan on British press freedom<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0i9KspqW7wQ/USvORypCmHI/AAAAAAAAAhY/TWIRl7PjhoQ/s1600/erdoganmerkal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="217" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0i9KspqW7wQ/USvORypCmHI/AAAAAAAAAhY/TWIRl7PjhoQ/s400/erdoganmerkal.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When a foreign leader descends on the Turkish capital for a working visit, the journalists from that country invariably use the leaders’ joint press conference to ask about Turkey’s record on freedom of expression.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“You have more journalists are in prison than China,” is the standard line of attack. “Shouldn’t you do something about that?”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Today, it was Angela Merkel and Germany’s turn to receive Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s stock answer.</span></div><a name='more'></a><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Actually, the number of imprisoned journalists in Turkey is more than the fingers on a hand. They are not imprisoned because of their writing. They are in prison either for conspiracy to overthrow the government or membership of a movement connected to a terrorist organisation."<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So far, so normal. The government’s standard defence of its jailed journalist tally is to argue they aren't really journalists. But the prime minister <a href="http://www.trthaber.com/videolar/ingilteredeki-tutuklu-gazetecileri-neden-sorusturmuyorsunuz-14806.html" target="_blank">took it further</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Not long ago, six journalists were arrested in Britain. As many as fifty journalists in Britain are in prison. Are you investigating these matters in the same way? Have you learned whether they are connected to the IRA?"<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The six journalists he mentions are most likely those once employed by the now-extinct News of the World. They <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/feb/13/sun-journalists-arrested-phone-hacking-probe">were arrested</a> as part of the police investigation into the hacking of private voicemail messages. The “as many as 50” is probably a rough guess at the number arrested as part of the British phone hacking scandal. The Guardian article puts the total number – including police officers and other public official – at over 100.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But is there a connection to the IRA, today a barely active paramilitary organisation? Probably not. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mr Erd</span><span lang="TR"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">oğan’s answer – basically, “you’re ugly too” – is a barely concealed attempt to avoid answering questions on Turkey’s freedom of speech credentials. How ironic that the British scandal he cited was over phone hacking, something that government agencies do so routinely in Turkey that you can’t imagine anyone ever being arrested over it.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-43757249224918826772013-02-25T21:21:00.000+02:002013-02-25T21:26:49.606+02:00Talking to the prisoner<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8dwrAMwNutg/USu5eMPL_kI/AAAAAAAAAhE/TWqNWBMyajg/s1600/abdullahocalan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8dwrAMwNutg/USu5eMPL_kI/AAAAAAAAAhE/TWqNWBMyajg/s1600/abdullahocalan.jpg" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Never before has Turkey been so far down the road towards peace with its Kurdish minority.</span><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In themselves, negotiations are nothing new. They have been held on-and-off and in secret for years – most recently brokered by the Norwegians. The preliminary objective is, as it has always been, to stop the fighting between the Turkish army and members of the PKK. Of course, these talks have produced ceasefires before; all eventually fell through.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This time might just be different. The Turkish government is talking not only to the PKK leadership in the Iraqi-Turkish mountains, but to the organisation’s number one himself, Abdullah Öcalan. And, for the first time, it is openly admitting doing so. This is the so-called “İmralı process”, named after the prison island on which the PKK leader is kept.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let’s be plain about what it involves: Turkey is in peace talks with the man it sentenced to death thirteen years ago.</span><br /><a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At present, these are indirect talks. The first batch of visitors included Mehmet Öcalan, the PKK leader’s brother. A second wave last week included members of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), the pro-Kurdish bloc in parliament.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Speaking after the second visit, BDP co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş said that Abdullah Öcalan was working on a document – one that would allow "all people to live equally and in freedom" – and that he expected it to be released by prison officials in the next few days.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The coming two to three weeks are particularly critical, Mr Demirtaş said, to formulating a plan for peace.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is appears quite clear that the <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/01/there-is-still-hope-for-kurdish-peace.html" target="_blank">assassination last month</a> of three PKK members in Paris has not derailed the peace process in Turkey’s southeast – in fact, it has given it fresh impetus.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government is openly admitting it is talking to the leader of what it considers a terrorist organisation, but the transparency ends there. All that matters is what comes out of İmralı prison in the Sea of Marmara and the prime minister’s residence in Ankara, but despite the prolific commentary from television pundits and newspaper columnists, we know scant else.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The point is not lost on Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), who is grumpy about not being consulted: <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“It is perfectly natural in a healthy democracy for the opposition to be kept informed during a process such as this,” <a href="http://www.showtvnet.com/player/index.asp?pType=7&amp;pid=169&amp;aid=25117" target="_blank">he told</a> last Thursday’s <i>Siyaset Meydanı </i>political talk show. “What does this mean? It means that ours is not a healthy democracy.”<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mr Kılıçdaroğlu argues that parliament, not the closed doors of the prime minister’s office, is where a deal with Turkey’s Kurds should be thrashed out. Nonetheless, he has said he would support any initiative that secures a ceasefire. Parliament’s nationalist opposition, the MHP, has been far less constructive.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Turkey’s government may not be in the room talking to Abdullah Öcalan, but it is deciding who gets to be there and it will decide what to do with any proposals that emerge. There is plenty to be cautious but optimistic about – and talk of giving Mr Erdoğan a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts might be just the encouragement his ego needs to get the job done.</span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-88346709550211380832013-02-18T19:31:00.000+02:002013-02-19T20:21:05.609+02:00Turkey's next election: the CHP's challenge<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SE_gsJuNmOg/USJlkqUwWlI/AAAAAAAAAXc/1RQSLWgitrA/s1600/logo-chp.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SE_gsJuNmOg/USJlkqUwWlI/AAAAAAAAAXc/1RQSLWgitrA/s200/logo-chp.png" width="169" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Here’s a prediction that won’t astonish anyone: the CHP will not win Turkey’s next general election in two years’ time.</span><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">A victory for the main opposition party is a monumentally difficult thing to achieve not just because of the party’s <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2013/01/who-wants-to-be-kemal-klcdaroglu.html">current leadership woes</a>, but because the governing AK Party has a solid hold on power.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">A <a href="http://www.metropoll.com.tr/">Metropoll</a> survey at the end of December, which showed a near-uniform swing in support away from the three main parties, reported a full 25 per cent of voters saying </span><a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">they are undecided on who to support, or would spoil their ballot or not vote at all. &nbsp;Granted, we are at that stage when the next election is years away and the last one a distant memory, but such large voter apathy in a country where election day turnouts average between 80 and 90% is remarkable.</span><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Among respondents who said they definitely would vote, Metropoll found AK Party support had slumped to 39.1%, a full ten percentage points below its landslide 2011 election result. The survey also showed a drop in support for the CHP (17.6%, down nine points) and the Nationalist Movement Party &nbsp;(MHP, 9.8% percent).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">But despite each party’s reduced support, this survey should look rather familiar. A clear AK Party lead that doubles the CHP’s support and an MHP that struggles to cross the 10 per cent electoral threshold is the 2011 general election all over again.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">For a projection of how these results would be reflected in parliament, see this:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IeeV3v4U66c/USJh5Re5U5I/AAAAAAAAAWo/zPrmQGNc8ss/s1600/2012-12+Metropoll+uns+projection.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="221" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IeeV3v4U66c/USJh5Re5U5I/AAAAAAAAAWo/zPrmQGNc8ss/s400/2012-12+Metropoll+uns+projection.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">This is a uniform swing projection and inherently crude. It ignores a number of important factors: regional variation (the change in vote share wouldn’t be identical around the country); Kurdish support (this projection assumes the same 35 independent MPs as in 2011) and local issues, which can produce a result against the national trend.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">However, it is still useful because it produces a result based on changes to the last election result in each electoral district. It takes the national change in vote share for each party, runs the D’Hondt calculation method in each of the 84 districts, then adds up all 550 seats.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The result is not very different from 2011. The AK Party loses seven seats; two to the CHP, five to the MHP, which gets the greater windfall because the D’Hondt method favours smaller parties. Nothing hugely remarkable so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">More interesting is <i>where</i> the AK Party lost those seven seats. These are the government’s most vulnerable marginals, the seats they most narrowly won at the last election and are most likely to lose next time.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-H3DnHKWeYms/USJjQ73_NwI/AAAAAAAAAXA/7kwDVvg1RtY/s1600/2012-12+Metropoll+uns+projection+marginals.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="196" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-H3DnHKWeYms/USJjQ73_NwI/AAAAAAAAAXA/7kwDVvg1RtY/s400/2012-12+Metropoll+uns+projection+marginals.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>Highlighted in red: Adana, Bursa, Mersin, Istanbul (1st district), Izmir (1st), Kayseri and Ordu.</i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Now, some of these electoral districts are huge. Istanbul alone sent 82 MPs to parliament at the last election. D’Hondt favours smaller parties, meaning that a large party is always going to be more vulnerable in a larger district if it has already won quite a few seats.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">But the seven districts in my list above are not Turkey’s seven largest districts. They include Ordu (6 seats) and Mersin (10 seats), but not Ankara (29 seats). This means that the differences in regional voting do count for something. More on this in a moment.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">CHP victory: what it takes<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Clearly, this Metropoll survey would leave the CHP far from an election victory. So what would it take?<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The last time a Turkish pollster showed a CHP lead was before the last election in June 2010, a week after Kemal </span><span lang="TR" style="line-height: 115%;">Kılıçdaroğlu became party leader, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">when <a href="http://www.jamesinturkey.com/2010/06/poll-shows-first-chp-lead-in-eight.html">SONAR found</a> it had 32.5% support over the AK Party’s 31.1%.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">If we were to take SONAR’s result and assume it represented a swing in a future general election, this is how a uniform swing projection would look (with changes from the 2011 result):<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TsubQpzCYac/USJlAzFmIfI/AAAAAAAAAXU/3cyqqMsK-ng/s1600/2012-12+SONAR+projection+hemicycle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="226" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TsubQpzCYac/USJlAzFmIfI/AAAAAAAAAXU/3cyqqMsK-ng/s400/2012-12+SONAR+projection+hemicycle.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">The AK Party would lose 30 seats – ten to the MHP, twenty to the CHP – but would still command enough to avoid a coalition.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Again, it’s not surprising that this result wouldn’t deliver a CHP victory or indeed an AK-led coalition government. The CHP lead in the survey was only 1.6 percentage points, within SONAR’s margin of error, and AK does benefit from a strong position of incumbency. But under this projection the AK Party would still lose more seats than it ever has before, and it’s interesting to see where.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-18vMctwmvEE/USJjKWmYUyI/AAAAAAAAAW4/h3fU7_0Wrjg/s1600/2012-12+SONAR+projection.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="196" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-18vMctwmvEE/USJjKWmYUyI/AAAAAAAAAW4/h3fU7_0Wrjg/s400/2012-12+SONAR+projection.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The AK Party would lose four seats from Istanbul and two from Ankara to the CHP under this projection. In Adana, Antalya, E</span><span lang="TR" style="line-height: 115%;">lazığ, Eskişehir, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kırşehir, Kocaeli, Konya, Kütahya, Manisa and Zonguldak, it would lose one each.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span lang="TR" style="line-height: 115%;">Strategies</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">To win a Turkish general election, the CHP would clearly need to attract voters who previously supported the AK Party. The map above shows that the CHP is closer to winning seats in the west, where cities are larger and have more people living in them. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Seats in the east are far harder for the CHP to convert. AK Party support is far stronger here: the population is smaller and a larger proportion lives in small towns and the country.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">An election result that resembles SONAR’s three-year-old survey would return a stronger CHP to opposition, not government. The party would need to do far more to break down AK Party fortresses around the country. These nineteen seats would be just the beginning.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">That is why stronger opposition is the best result the CHP can hope for at the next election. For anything better, there needs to be a sea change in Turkish politics. Recep Tayyip Erd</span><span lang="TR" style="line-height: 115%;">oğan</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">’s elevation to the presidency could upset everything.</span></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-53990072088649595732013-02-14T17:37:00.000+02:002013-02-19T20:23:19.686+02:00The Turkey or the egg?<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bvRbuVTNbFQ/UR0EdLWO9UI/AAAAAAAAAWQ/XliaSNA3G9A/s1600/cartoon2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bvRbuVTNbFQ/UR0EdLWO9UI/AAAAAAAAAWQ/XliaSNA3G9A/s320/cartoon2.jpg" width="228" /></a></div>Consider, if you will, the curious case of Turkey’s ambiguous name. It can mean one of two things. The first is a parliamentary democracy of 75 million squeezed onto the Anatolian peninsula and home to one of the largest cities in the world. The other is a large bird that American presidents have a penchant for pardoning every year.<br /><div class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</div><div class="MsoNormal">Neither makes a decent bottle of wine – but beyond that, they have few things in common.&nbsp; The bird is not indigenous to the country. In the country’s main language, the bird is named after another country - &nbsp;India. You cannot seriously confuse the two.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">But some people in Turkey see clarity as an opportunity for bewilderment: there is a campaign, growing in voice, for the country to adopt <i>T</i><i><span lang="TR">ürkiye</span></i><span lang="TR"> as its English name.</span><br /><a name='more'></a><span lang="TR"><o:p></o:p></span><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The move would not be without precedent. In the 1980s, Ivory Coast’s government politely asked the world that it thenceforth be known as <i>Cote d’Ivoire</i>. Burma became <i>Myanmar</i>, although not to universal appeal. Change Turkey’s name to <i>T</i><i><span lang="TR">ürkiye</span></i><span lang="TR"> and who would care? Besides, think how <u>helpful</u> it would be.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Think of the poor souls who, upon reading the headline "Turkey condemns Syrian aggression", would wonder whether a rebuke from poultry will finally break Bashar al-Assad into submission. Or the confusion that must reign supreme when you come across "Turkey Catering Ltd" when looking for someone to provide the food for your wedding. Is it the bird? Is it the cuisine?&nbsp;Aman tanrım!<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">An adherent of the <i>Türkiye </i>policy would interrupt such puerile, sarcastic arguments at this point and adopt a solemn expression. “This is serious,” they would say. “It affects our country’s image abroad.”<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Here’s psychologist Nur Yaycıoğlu, who says it’s about time the Turkish people rallied together to persuade their government to change the country’s English name.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">“"Does it not besmirch our honour?" she <a href="http://gundem.milliyet.com.tr/-turkey-hindi-ismi-ne-zaman-degisecek-/gundem/gundemyazardetay/30.12.2012/1648825/default.htm" target="_blank">thundered in her <i>Milliyet</i> column</a> in dying days of 2012.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">"Every Turkish product and activity is labelled 'Turkey', which makes it like the advert for a brand of the bird.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">"This is not just an emotional, individual problem that concerns a single group. It is the reason that all the people in the world associate 75 million Turkish nationals with the bird."<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0IS0v0VuD_M/UR0EdTio7II/AAAAAAAAAWY/9UjXGgZR07Y/s1600/cartoon1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0IS0v0VuD_M/UR0EdTio7II/AAAAAAAAAWY/9UjXGgZR07Y/s320/cartoon1.jpg" width="320" /></a>Dr Yaycıoğlu is far from alone: a Facebook campaign, albeit a lacklustre one, is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/TURKIYEHindiDegildir" target="_blank">calling for the very same thing</a> has attracted 7958 likes. Trawl through its timeline and you'll see satirical cartoons and Sesame Street videos that plan on the Turkey pun - demeaning the country in the process, the campaign argues.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">But there is no reason to look to the classic chicken-or-egg causality dilemma to answer this one: the country was definitely first. Turkey is named after its predominant ethnic group, the Turks. It derives from the French, Latin and Greek forms of the word, all of which mean the same thing: “land of the Turks”. It is the bird that took the country’s name; not the other way around.</div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The <i>Türkiye&nbsp;</i>campaign is far from gathering any serious traction, but the instinct to deploy crude, defensive nationalism should still be a little worrying to some - and not really too surprising.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-55734748070345275662013-01-31T16:59:00.000+02:002013-02-19T20:23:38.197+02:00Who wants to be Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WX9zNeAD9qM/URz702k4A8I/AAAAAAAAAWA/h3u6CRND6n0/s1600/kilicdarogluguler.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="307" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WX9zNeAD9qM/URz702k4A8I/AAAAAAAAAWA/h3u6CRND6n0/s400/kilicdarogluguler.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>It all began when <span lang="TR">Birgül Ayman Güler, an two-year Izmir MP for the Republican People’s Party (CHP), lost her temper during a parliamentary debate last Wednesday.</span><br /><div class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</div><div class="MsoNormal">In an extraordinarily angry rant, Ms Güler attacked the governing AK Party and the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) for she called a racial discrimination against Turks as a race.<br /><a name='more'></a><o:p></o:p><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">She decried the commission responsible for writing the country's new constitution for suggesting that every national be described as a "Citizen of the Republic of Turkey" rather than a "Turkish citizen". She claimed that defending Turkishness was being described as racism and added:<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">"You cannot pass Kurdish nationalism off on me as being 'progressive' or 'independent'. You cannot tell me the Turkish nation and the Kurdish people are equal, are equilvalent."<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Her allotted time finished; Ms Güler’s microphone was automatically switched off and she was asked to take her seat.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The comments successfully distracted the press and politicians alike from the recent mini-reshuffle of the cabinet. G<span lang="TR">ültan Kışanak, one of the</span> BDP co-leaders, described Ms Güler’s comments as “racist and discriminatory”, while the deputy prime minister, barely concealing his glee, spoke of a deepening rift in the CHP.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b>HARD TIME</b><b><span lang="TR"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Ms Güler’s comments, which can be described as ill-advised at best, came at the worst possible time for the Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. A Metropoll survey conducted at the end of December produced some worrying results for the CHP leader, who assumed his position a little short of three years ago.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Aside from the headline voting intentions, which put the CHP’s share of the vote at the lowest in years, nearly half of Metropoll’s respondents said their confidence in Mr Kılıçdaroğlu had reduced, a proportion higher than any other leader.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Consider these three questions Metropoll asked its entire sample:<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">* How likely are you to vote CHP? (53.3% responded "Not" or "Definitely not")<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal">* What do you think of party leader X? (Where X was Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, 59% said "Dislike" or "Strongly dislike")<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal">* In the last year, has your trust in party leader X increased or decreased? (Where X was Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, 46.2% said "decreased")<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">In all these negative measures, the CHP or its leader came ahead of its AK Party and MHP rivals. Metropoll also found that CHP voters were most likely to be disillusioned with their leader; most likely to be admiring of Mustafa Sarıgül, the closest thing Mr Kılıçdaroğlu has to a rival; and most likely to support the entry of a new party in Turkish politics.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">Of course, we are in the middle of a popular government’s term in office, far from an election , and any opposition party’s poll rating is likely to suffer in such circumstances. But Ms Güler has unhelpfully exposed some truths about Turkey’s main opposition party that many members would have preferred to ignore.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The first is the nature of the party’s membership. The CHP is actually not what it says it is. It defines itself as a centre-left, social democratic outfit, but (to paraphrase <a href="http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1118963&amp;Yazar=MURAT-YETKIN&amp;CategoryID=98" target="_blank">an excellent analysis</a> by Murat Yetkin) it is in reality the party of a crowd, not an ideology. This crowd includes more than just social democrats: we're talking about neo-Kemalists who preach secularism and would do anything to topple the AK Party government, and hard-left sympathisers who want to topple the capitalist system that they say meticulously orchestrated by the United States.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">The second truth is that the left-wing of Turkish politics has always been diverse and fragmented and – it must be acknowledged – smaller than the right. The irony about Ms G<span lang="TR">üler’s comments is that</span>, if the Kurdish issue is ever resolved, most BDP members would probably join the CHP because the two parties operate along very similar ideological lines. But Turkey is overwhelmingly a conservative country and has voted for centre-right parties in far larger numbers – and did so well before the AK Party united that part of the political spectrum.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal">So there is not one rift in the CHP but many. For some commentators, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu faces a difficult choice that will see at least a small faction split away from his CHP. That faction, for the moment at least, won’t include Ms Güler: she was not asked to resign, and has instead demanded an apology for herself.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32451629.post-91317079044592692912013-01-10T20:55:00.000+02:002013-02-19T20:22:39.493+02:00There is still hope for a Kurdish peace<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jrjNIiD7cW0/UO8N3DSOIMI/AAAAAAAAAVw/lJ5yUa9MqA0/s1600/628x471.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jrjNIiD7cW0/UO8N3DSOIMI/AAAAAAAAAVw/lJ5yUa9MqA0/s400/628x471.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>The news that three Kurdish women, including a co-founder of the PKK, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/world/europe/three-kurdish-activists-killed-in-central-paris.html?ref=world" target="_blank">were found shot dead in a Parisian Kurdish centre</a>, has stolen headlines in Turkey and across the world.<br /><br />As with all attacks of this kind, there is plenty that is not yet known. We do not know who carried out the shooting or why they did it. French police have launched an investigation. We can only speculate over whether it is connected to events in Turkey: it emerged recently that the government has been holding talks in secret with<a name='more'></a> Abdullah Öcalan, the founding leader of the PKK who is serving a life prison sentence, to try and bring an end to the violence in the southeast.<br /><br />It was Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who revealed the negotiations had been happening, after spending much of the last year dishing out some of his harshest rhetoric against the PKK and the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy and Party (BDP).<br /><br />Today, at least one senior figure in his party tried to dismiss the Parisian shooting as an "internal conflict" within the PKK. But Mr Erdoğan still had his newfound statesman’s hat on: "We need to wait for light to be shed on the incident," <a href="http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/22333544.asp" target="_blank">he said</a>. "This could be an internal conflict; however, we are engaged in a struggle to end terrorism and we want to make progress, but there some who do not wish for this. It [the shootings] could be a provocative move by them."<br /><br />Tonight, there is much commentary in the Turkish and foreign press about the shootings and the implications they may have for the peace process. Many critics – and some BDP politicians – have warned <a href="http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/id/25412759" target="_blank">there could be revenge attacks</a> against Turkish figures.<br /><br />However, there are two points that distinguish this event from, say, 2011’s catastrophic air strike on Kurdish civilians. First, Turkey – through Bülent Arınç – has expressed its sorrow. The deputy prime minister said it appeared to be an extrajudicial execution and he condemned it, thus quickly voicing the outrage that needs to be heard. This is not a trivial point: in too many past cases, Turkey’s leadership has failed to react quickly enough to tragedy with a basic human response.<br /><br />Second, it looks like the peace talks will continue. Before the Parisian shooting, Mr Erdoğan had spoken of a two-pronged approach: "continuing the military operation in southeast Turkey against the terrorists, while simultaneously holding talks with their political wing". It is hugely encouraging that the prime minister is again persuaded of the need to involve the BDP in peace talks. Just like in Northern Ireland, direct talks are the only way to end such a bitter civil war.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript">
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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script><noscript><div class="statcounter"><a title="blogspot visit counter" class="statcounter" href="http://statcounter.com/blogger/"><img class="statcounter" src="http://c.statcounter.com/1876434/0/dbdf6237/1/" alt="blogspot visit counter" /></a></div></noscript></div>Jamesnoreply@blogger.com0