Friday, November 11, 2011

Our new database reporter Gavin Off has created a map showing which school board candidates took first place in each precinct. Click on any precinct to see how all 14 candidates fared there.

Gavin and I are working on a story for Sunday looking at what it all means; I just figured I'd give the election junkies who read this blog a sneak preview. Not surprisingly, the four top finishers -- Ericka Ellis-Stewart, Mary McCray and Tim Morgan, who won the three at-large seats, and Elyse Dashew, who ran a close fourth -- claimed the top spot in most precincts. Aaron Pomis, who placed fifth, took one precinct, and Larry Bumgarner, who placed sixth, took three.

Like Christine I've been looking at this type of map from the board of election ever since Wednesday.

What would be very interesting I think is for Gavin to map the precincts in which DeShauna McLamb and Lisa Hundley, who were not running, received enough votes to give the two of the a total of almost 22,000. I would think this would also be a good question for Ann to consider--why did anyone vote for these two women?

Thanks, Christine! I had looked for something like that right after the election and didn't find it, but should have kept checking that site, too.

Swann Fellowship has also done some interesting analysis:http://www.swannfellowship.org/Archive/2011/111110SchoolBdVoteReview.pdf According to that, DeShauna McLamb placed fourth in D2 and fifth in D5.

This is my take on the DeShauna McLamb and Lisa Hundley vote totals. At first, I thought it may have been some strategic voting to try to keep some other candidates from winning. In that regard, McLamb did keep Dashew off the board. However, in doing more detsiled precinct by precinct analysis, her votes were probably her votes.

I think many black voters voted for three black women without even knowing who they were voting for. Lisa Hundley probably got a few of these votes too, although her name is not as obvious as DeShauna McLamb. I say this because most of McLamb's votes came from Districts 2 and 3, with pockets in 1 and 4 where there are majority black precincts. I hate thinking this was the case, but an in-depth analysis of the numbers tells us that, unfortunately.

Lisa Hundley, on the other hand, got votes EVERYWHERE. Either she had a lot more support than was evidenced at the forums she attended and from her finance reports, or, as Ann did, people confused her name with Keith Hurley's. There are precincts where Hurley's vote total lags mine and Hundley's vote total is a bit high.

Did Republicans pull a Gore/Buchanan? It's entirely possible, because even voters who knew the issues thought my name was Ken Morgan, or Tim Nelson. I'm sure Tim got votes intended for me.

Not that it mattered in placement, however, I don't doubt that Keith Hurley should have had an additional 1,500 or so votes, and I probably could have had an additional 500 or so...I probably got a few intended for Morgan.

That being said, unfortunately, we are dealing with a seriously misinformed and ignorant elctorate. I know that's a horrible thing for a candidate to say, but things in this election defy belief. Larry Bumgarner pulling 7-8% out of 90% black precincts on the west side for example...HOW?

Ken, I would say you are right on target. I used to run a precinct in a heavy minority area. While many of these were more successful middle class blacks, you could see the trends of their voting. At first, I was wondering if there had been an error with machine programming county wide. However, as I have studied the more detailed voting patterns and turnout, I tend to agree with you. Is this a case where the "good people" of the county have just decided to turn over the school system to this minority and let it become like the Detroit schools? Obviously if you look at the turnout numbers, the suburbs could have carried this at large election if they had turned out like the inner city precincts.

What does the outcome mean for CMS? Quite probably an end to HB546 - which is dead already but should be withdrawn. Most probably a scaling back/slowing of the testing madness instituted last year.

Thank you Mr. Morgan for opening your seat to a person with intelligence and an ability to work with others - as long as that person is not Bolyn McClung. The board will certainly NOT pick someone of your ilk to replace you, thereby ruining your stategy of strengthening the "deform" movement. The Furtive Five are long gone and now you must deal with true change in CMS, change done WITH teachers and not TO them.

I wonder if anonymous 8:43 is the same person who so vehemently and nastily insisted that Tim Morgan's district hated him, did not support him, and would not vote for him. (Check out the voting results)

83.9% of the people did not vote for Timmy. Bravo! Maybe his district approached this election like others did Vilma's county commission run - vote Timmy out of our district and have a different majority on the board put anyone better In there. Maybe someone who would communicate with his constituents and wasn't swayed by the former super?

Gee Ken, are we a little bitter these days? Perhaps people didn't like your caustic, arrogent attitude and saw how toxic it would be on a leadership body. Perhaps it's time for you to pack up and move to another place like you seem to seem to have often. Trust me, we really won't miss you.