A Step Ahead: Jim Stefani's Underclassmen Football Recruiting Blog

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Post-Camp U-M Football Recruiting Thoughts: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good

The surprise verbal of Detroit Cass Tech rising junior William Campbell. This was important as Michigan is not heavily involved with many rising senior defensive tackles and it also helps to re-establish the Cass Tech pipeline after landing Boubacar Cissiko this year. The Joseph Barksdale fiasco still lingers…..

Speaking of rising junior class, the state of Michigan looks to be on the verge of producing a third consecutive class that would be considered at least slightly above average. The in-state rising juniors performed well, with a couple of other offers being extended. It looks to be a great year for in-state skill prospects, led by WR/CB James Jackson, WR Cameron Gordon and RBs Larry Capers and Hersey Jackson. I think the summer camp has actually become more important in identifying the top young talent and starting to establish relationships with these prospects. The Michigan coaching staff is starting to do a good job in adapting to the accelerated recruiting time line and kudos have to go to recruiting coordinator Chris Singletary with respect to this.

In my view, a limited number of new camp offers is a good thing. This means that the staff is further along in the evaluation process than they used to be in the old days, when summer camp was once early in the evaluation period.

New offers to rising seniors went out to the following prospects:

QBJohn Weinke

RBJonas Gray

OLRocko Khoury

OLKevin Zeitler

CBMarc Anthony

The Weinke offer was not a big surprise once I learned he would be attending camp. He is one of the fastest-rising QBs in the nation and Michigan has been cslow in evaluating and offering QBs this year, in part because it is a down year for the position.

Gray finally received his offer after wowing onlookers at the camp, including running a 4.37 forty.

Khoury and Zeitler were the gong show winners among a large group of offensive linemen were were battling for a scholarship offer.A few camp offers needed to be given out here as Michigan has a need at the position and has finished second on a few higher-regarded prospects.

Anthony is one of the fastest-rising CB prospects in the nation. He lacks real jets, but has open hips and excellent coverage skills. It is also a position where Michigan needs to build some depth.

Here are a few campers who did not earn offers but who looked good enough to remain on the offer watch list heading into high summer:

RB/LBGlenn Winston

DEGlen Foster

DESean Progar

LBKenny Demens

QBNathan Stanley

LB/RBBrandon Beachum

WRDamion Dixon

CB/WR D.J. Woods

OL Deonte Pannell

Winston and Foster are two Glenn’s who have tremendous size/speed ratios and are really put together well. Classic high ceiling types who are still raw as football players.

Progar is a prospect to really watch out for.He has liked Michigan for some time and looked very good at the camp.

Stanley seemed to be possibly third on the Micvhigan QB target list after Mike Glennon and John Weinke. An offer could go out to him at any time.

Demens and Beachum could receive offers if Michigan misses out on some of their top LB targets.

Dixon could receive an offer down the road, especially if the news on Jon Baldwin is true.

The top uncommitted campers who have been offered by Michigan:

1.Ethan Johnson

2. Michael Floyd

3. Jonas Gray

4. Marcus Dowtin

5. Fred Smith

6. Kevin Koger

Michigan really helped themselves with Johnson, who has relatives nearby. Floyd is a longshot and could end up at Notre Dame. Dowtin, Smith and Koger are all seriously considering Michigan but none of them are locks.

The Bad

Thus far, there have been no rising senior verbals. It must also be disconcerting that prospects such as Rocko Khoury and Kevin Zeitler did not commit immediately and are considering MichiganState and Wisconsin, respectively.In the old days, Michigan would have locked up on these kids early.

I’ve heard from three separate sources that Michigan has fallen behind Notre Dame in the Jonathan Baldwin sweepstakes. This is the first bit or REAL bad news in the recruiting front this year. The other prospects Notre Dame has beaten U-M out for this year are all solid kids, but none are the difference-maker type of prospects that Baldwin is. Wolverine fans won’t be able to spin this one away should Baldwin go Irish.

Tyler Hoover to MichiganState. When is the last time MichiganState beat out Michigan for an in-stater that both schools offered. OK, so a lot of people aren’t enamored with Hoover as a DE, and the name Pat Massey is often heard in the conversation. Nevertheless, Hoover is a tall, rangy and athletic DE/TE/OT who I think could make an outstanding OT down the road. A loss, albeit not huge, for Michigan, but a huge get for MSU. These things are relative, after all.

The feeling that MichiganState could really make a big push when it comes to in-state recruiting. Michigan may have waited too long to offer Jones Gray, and with teammate Kenny Demens not yet sporting a Wolverine offer, I would not be surprised to see both verbal to the Spartans sooner rather than later. The longer this thing plays out the better for Michigan.I also think Michigan has a battle on their hands with MichiganState for both Fred Smith and Nick Perry. MichiganState just seems to be showing the in-staters a lot more love than the Wolverines.Perhaps this is because these are the biggest fish that Mark D’Antonio and company have to fry while Lloyd Carr and crew have a smorgasbord of blue-chippers to recruit and choose from.

People were waiting to see how Mike Hart’s cousin, Anton Harris, who was a star for Bitburg High in Germany, would do. Hes a hard-nosed runner like his cousin but didn’t show the speed to be a top flight recruit.

A lot of people were eager to see how small school in-state OT Zac Hueter would perform. He looks to be MAC-bound.

Was New York LB/RB Latavius Murray a now-show.Hes from Mike Hart’S school and could have earned himself an offer with a good camp performance.

Detroit CB Anthony Hollis was another no-show that puzzled people.

Yet another CB who failed to show was Illinois DB Tommie Thomas.

Pennsylvania WR/DB Vaughn Carraway was another no-show, albeit it one with an offer. Has his love affair with Michigan cooled?

The Ugly

One of the things that has really worried me in recent years has been our recruitment of the “Big Uglies”:the offensive linemen. In the past several years we have only landed a couple of consensus first or second team all-american recruits at that position:Steve Schilling and Justin Boren. And we almost lost Boren, a U-M legacy, to OhioState because we waited so long in tendering an offer. Jake Long is a great talent and coming out of high school I REALLY liked him (as did a few other astute followers of U-M recruiting), but he was not a consensus national top 100 prospect.

I remember a few months ago when Dan O’Neill committed to U-M and Lloyd Carr told him that he would be part of the best OL class in the nation. Well, that is not necessarily happening.Sure, Kurt Wermers and Elliott Mealer are solid prospects, but they are not super elite linemen. Neither are new offerees Kevin Zeitler and Rocko Khoury.It should tell you something that Mealer failed to receive an OhioState offer and we are battling MichiganState for Rocko and Wisconsin for Zeitler.Solid prospects, but not the supers we need to compete with the USCs, OhioState’s and Florida’s of the world.

Here is how I have the linemen/prospective linemen ranked for Michigan as compared to our competitors (cumulative OL rankings, not divided between center, tackle, guard):

Michigan

17 Dan O’Neill

25 Zebrie Sanders

45 Kurt Wermers

48 Elliott Mealer

60 Rocko Khoury

62 Kevin Zeitler

OhioState

5 Michael Brewster

6 Mike Adams

13 J.B. Shugarts

USC

1 Tyron Smith

3 Matt Kalil

33 Matt Meyer

Nebraska

10 Baker Steinkuhler

16 Trevor Robinson

28 Bryce Givens

31 Dan Hoch

Notre Dame

30 Lane Clelland

50 Braxston Cave

54 Mike Golic

As you can see, USC has managed to receive verbals from two offensive linemen in the past few months who are more highly rated that ANYBODY Michigan has signed at the position in, say, over ten years. OhioState is on the verge of putting together an offensive line class for the ages. Nebraska’s class is also stronger and includes several kids they beat U-M out for. Currently, Michigan’s class is only slightly better than Notre Dame’s, and that’s simply because of O’Neill and the fact that Notre Dame already has a ton of Offensive line prospects on campus.

The offensive line class that Michigan is putting together this year reminds me quite a bit, both in terms of numbers and talent level, of the 2005 freshman class of Justin Schifano, Mark Ortmann, Cory Zirbel, Dave Moosman and Tim McAvoy.Schifano had a national ranking similar to O’Neill’s while all the others were more or less middling prospecst who were not national elite top 20 linemen. Entering their third year in the program perhaps one, likely Ortmann, will be a starter, and that is probably due to the fact that Schilling has missed so much time due to injury.Lots of road-graders who are fine agaist the likes of Indiana, Minnesota and even Michigan State, but have a tough time holding up against the athletic defenders at programs like USC. The proof is in the pudding.

It’s interesting to note that U-M has had very little success in recruiting both offensive linemen and the state of Illinois since Andy Moeller has been responsible for both at Michigan.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

2007 University of Michigan Football Camp Preview

The University of Michigan football camp kicks off on Monday, June 18.

Below is my overview of some of the top rising senior prospects who have indicated that they will or may be attending the camp. Please keep in mind that this is a very fluid list. Often players who say they plan on attending do not show up while others decide to attend at the last minute.

Quarterbacks

There is a need for Michigan to sign a QB this year as only Ryan Mallett and Dave Cone will be around in 2008. An incoming freshman would likely have a two year gap with Mallett probably not red shirting this year.

Michigan has only offered one QB that I believe it has a legitimate shot at signing and that is Mike Glennon out of Virginia. Don't be surprised to see the most impressive camp QB receive an offer and possibly even commit. It's a deep year for borderline U-M caliber QBs in Michigan and Krauss, Kay and Mifsud will all battle for that elusive offer. I also wouldn't be surprised to see in-staters Adam Follett, Craig Sacha and Chris Lum show up as well.

1 Jacob Charest QB 6'3 178 4.97 Charlotte Butler North Carolina Offers: LOU, NCST, MD, CAL, ILL Will camp Will be interesting to see if this Butler player shows up

2 Spencer Krauss QB/LB 6'1 212 Clinton Michigan Offers: STAN Will camp Fast-rising in-stater has a gun for an arm and is tough, but may be too short

3 Brendon Kay QB/ATH 6'4 218 4.77 Marine City Michigan Offers: EMU Will camp and Camped in 2006 On the radar for a while. Make or break time

4 Anthony Mifsud QB 6'4 184 4.90 Dearborn Michigan Will camp Least touted of the top four QBs camping but for some reason I suspect he is the most likely to receive an offer

Running Backs

McGuffie is the RB that U-M really wants and they may be reluctant to offer a similar sort of back in fear of scaring McGuffie away (which is, in my view, unlikely, as McGuffie loves competition).

Michigan will need to decide what to do about highly touted in-stater Jonas Gray. Ray is another in-stater who has blown up recently and watch out for super sleeper Anton Harris, who played this past year in Germany.

3 Caulton Ray RB/DB 5'9 195 4.34 Birmingham Brother Rice Michigan Offers: EMU, CMU, BG, CIN Will camp Blew up at Nebraska camp, but skills may be too similar to McGuffie to earn an offer unless he is willing to play CB

4 Andre Smith RB 5'11 185 4.40 Bakersfield East Bakersfield California Offers: ORE, COLST Will camp Curious to see if he will show up

U-M is feeling pretty good about current offerees Jon Baldwin, Darryl Stonum and Fred Smith, so I would be surprised to see new WR offers emerge unless someone truly stands out. Damion Dixon could be the most likely prospect to receive an offer (assuming Fuller does not show up).

Brandon Moore is already on board while Kevin Koger and Tyler Hoover are offerees who could also play TE. Ladner is a likely no-show after committing to CAL recently. Graham already has an offer. I don't really see any new offers at this position during camp week.

Much like QB, there will be a real gong show going on for possible offers on the OL. Pocic may feel some heat to commit before the OL fills up as at least one of several in-staters along with Kevin Zeitler could well emerge with an offer this week.

4 Deontee Pannell OL/DL 6'6 300 Birmingham Groves Michigan Offers: MICHST, EMU, CMU, MIN, PUR, PSU, WISC Will camp Really blowing up this spring and has as good a chance as any lineman to land an offer at the camp. I so, the commitment watch would begin.

5 Rocko Khoury OL/DL 6'6 282 5.00 Traverse City West Michigan Offers: WMU, EMU, CMU, MICHST Will camp Right up there with Pannell as one who has a legit shot of receiving an offer with a solid camp

6 Kevin Zeitler OL 6'4 288 Milwaukee Wisconsin Lutheran Wisconsin Offers: AIR FORCE, ARMY, MIN, PUR, WISC, NILL Will camp One of the top prospects in Wiscosnin and has a great chance to receive an offer.

7 Zac Hueter OL/DL/TE 6'6 270 5.10 North Branch Michigan Offers: CMU Will camp Sleeper OT with a great frame and quick feet. With a great camp another offer, and commitment watch, possibilty

U-M really needs defensive linemen, especially DEs, in this class. Not a deep group of prospective campers but pretty top-heavy. Johnson will be camping the entire week and is the top prospect in Oregon. Koger could well commit this week. Glenn Foster is a very athletic edge rusher who is one of my top offer candidates this week.

1 Ethan Johnson DL/OL 6'5 253 5.16 Portland Lincoln Oregon Offers: ORE, ORE ST, COL, ND, AUB, USC, MIN, AZST, NEB, WASH, MICH, UVA Will camp One of the top DEs in the nation and will camp the entire week. Which is a good thing

Another position of need for U-M this year. Wilson is actually being recruited by U-M as an H-Back and already has an offer, as does Perry. Beachum, Demens and Murray are all blue-chippers who are battling for an offer. They all have a decent chance of eventually receiving one.

5 Latavius Murray LB/RB 6'3 215 4.64 Nedrow Onondaga New York Offers: SYR, BC, CFLA, UCONN, MD Will camp Two-way back from Mike Hart's school. Runs well and has a nice frame. Could emerge with an offer

Safety is a top priority for U-M this year, but there are a few big names that U-M has already offered and has a decent shot at landing (in particular the two New Jersey backs Will Hill and Brandon Smith), so offers may not be handed out so easily. McCarthy and Carraway already hold offers. Three CBs who are fighting for an offer are Marc Anthony, Tommie Thomas and Anthony Hollis. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one emerge with an offer.

4 Eddie Whitley DB 6'1 169 4.40 Charlotte Butler North Carolina Offers: LOU, DUKE, NCAR, UVA, NCST, KY, CAL, ORE, MD, ILL, GA Will camp and camped in 2006 and 2005 Possibly the only Butler DB who will show up, and the only one without an offer

12 Darius Reeves DB/RB/WR 6'1 170 4.50 Gahanna Lincoln Ohio Will camp Son of former U-M safety Jeff Reeves. Could he surprise like another rising son, Troy Woolfolk, did last year?

13 Eli Biakabatuka DB 6'2 200 Montreal Lynx Canada May camp and Camped in 2006 Touchdown Tim's bro has a great frame for a safety but laskd brother's great skill set.

14 Cortez Smith DB/LB/RB 5'11 196 4.54 Detroit Cass Tech Michigan Offers: BALLST, IN May camp and Camped in 2006 Cortez is one of deep group of PSL DBs who just may be a step too slow or a bit too small to earn a U-M offer

Jim Stefani is THE authority in identifying future college football propects before their junior seasons. He specializes in providing this information to colleges and universities, but is now posting some of his information directly to the web.
Schools interested in subscribing to his premium services can contact Jim at jimstefani997@aol.com

About Me

Jim has over 20 years of experience in the international investment banking sector, including senior management roles at Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank.
Jim's experience has included responsibility for managing equity research teams. Through this experience and his passion for college football recruiting he has developed a methodology for identifying prospective football prospects for colleges and universities.
His goal is to provide "waterfront coverage" of the nation's top prospects and identify them by the winter of their junior year.