Third and last episode of the series dedicated to Globalization. In past episodes its limits were mentionned, but what's new for the future of globalization? William De Vijlder discusses three levels of globalization sustainability: inclusion, environment, financial stability – major challenges for economic policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

On the Same Theme

Inclusive growth: why is it an issue?
2/27/2019

In this new series, William De Vijlder promotes the idea that growth can only be sustainable if it is inclusive. Indeed, poverty reduction on a lasting basis requires inclusive growth that allows people to contribute to and benefit from economic growth. In this first episode, we find out that inclusive growth refers both to the pace and pattern of growth, which are significantly interlinked. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Inclusive growth: the challenge at the country level
2/27/2019

Addressing inequalities is one of the core challenges for inclusive growth. This episode discusses why, within a given country, inclusive growth is key in tackling inequality and what can be done about it in terms of policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Globalization: an historical perspective
12/20/2018

First episode of three dedicated to Globalization. What made globalization possible? In this first episode, William De Vijlder, the chief economist of BNP Paribas, distinguishes four drivers of globalization and discusses its limits. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Globalization today: from multi to bilateralism
12/20/2018

Second episode of series of three dedicated to Globalization. William De Vijlder analyses the transition from multilateralism to bilateralism, in the USA-China relations in particular. What are the consequences of growing bilateralism and uncertainty for trade, capital flows? Interview conducted with François Doux

After the holiday season, mounting challenges
9/11/2018

The protectionist threat has been grabbing headlines but this hasn't stopped Wall Street from reaching new highs, supported by growth in earnings and the perception of a dovish Fed.

Bank debt leverage: ten years later
9/5/2018

Following the 2007-2008 financial crisis, international regulators considerably strengthened the capital adequacy requirements for banks. Since then, the average bank leverage ratio (book value of equity/consolidated assets) has increased sharply in the eurozone and the United States, to 7.3% and 10.1%, respectively, at year-end 2017, compared to 4% and 6.9% in 2008.
Looking beyond these trends, the relative ratio levels must be seen in terms of the very different financing means of the two economies and the structure of savings.
First, in the United States, the economy relies more on capital markets than on loans reported on bank balance sheets. The securitisation of mortgage loans benefiting from Federal guarantees helps reduce the size of bank balance sheets. As a result, there is a partial transfer of banking system leverage towards less regulated entities. Second, bank liabilities account for a smaller share of household savings in the United States. Then, at the economic level, the probability that bank equity will serve as a buffer between any potential asset losses and savings is undoubtedly lower in the United States than in the eurozone.

The cost of the protectionist threat
5/11/2018

Even if in reality nothing changes, worrying about protectionism may nevertheless act as an economic headwind because threats and counter-threats increase uncertainty.

How the willingness to take risk can evaporate
7/28/2017

News about monetary policy news influences asset prices via changes in expected cash-flows, the risk-free rate of interest and the required risk premium. Big fluctuations in the risk premium explain why asset prices are more volatile than news about ‘fundamentals’. These fluctuations reflect the heterogeneous nature of market participants.
To go further
Read the paper by William De Vijlder: How the willingness to take risk can evaporate

Doomed if you do, doomed if you don’t?
6/30/2017

Monetary policy normalisation is a balancing act: tighten too early could trigger a recession, hike too late could mean an inflation overshoot and a need to raise rates more aggressively.
To go further
Read the paper by William De Vijlder: Monetary tightening: Doomed if you do, doomed if you don’t?

Global: Synchronised surprises
1/11/2017

Recent economic data have been robust and have surprised to the upside: the numbers have been better than expected in the US, the Eurozone and in emerging markets (a universe which covers 20 countries). These synchronized surprises (all three indicators being in positive territory) do not occur that often. The recent experience may reflect that by coincidence things have improved simultaneously albeit for country specific reasons or it may show the impact of a common factor, like the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US. The next several months will tell. Another striking element is the recent strong increase in the Eurozone surprise index which has now reached a level which makes it increasingly difficult to continue to surprise to the upside.

ABOUT US
Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.

The publisher undertakes to comply with all laws on the establishment and the activity of a website. As a user of the Site, you must read the following terms and conditions carefully and accessing the Site is deemed as acceptance thereof.

1 - ACCESS TO THE WEBSITE

Access to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is free of charge. The costs of accessing and using the telecommunications network are borne by the user in accordance with the terms and conditions set by his/her access providers and telecommunications operators.

The user of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website acknowledges that he/she has the skill and resources necessary to gain access to and use the Site.

The user is reminded that it is an offence punishable under criminal law to fraudulently access or remain connected to an IT system, to impair or interfere with the functioning of such a system or to fraudulently enter or alter information in an IT system.

2 - INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All the content (text, images, data, graphics, photographs, soundtracks, etc.) of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website is protected by the copyright, trademark and, more broadly, the intellectual property legislation.

It is prohibited to reproduce or represent the pages, data or any other component of this Site by any means and on any medium whatsoever, whether in whole or in part, without prior express authorisation. Such action would constitute an infringement punishable under the French Intellectual Property Code.

As an exception to the foregoing, the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website includes publications (audiovisual, written) that the user may view or download. For these identified publications, the Site’s publisher (which also holds the copyright to these publications) authorises the user to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications on any medium and by any means of communications. The authorisation to reproduce, represent and distribute these publications is expressly subject to (a) use of the publication in its integral form without any changes and (b) the insertion of a reference “Source: BNP Paribas Economic Research” for each use, reproduction, representation and distribution of the publication.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the publication is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate cessation by the relevant user of all use, reproduction, representation and distribution thereof.

The trademarks on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website are trademarks registered in France and internationally in various different forms by BNP Paribas S.A.

Any reproduction or representation in full or in part of these trademarks using components of the Site without the prior express authorisation of BNP Paribas S.A. is thus prohibited pursuant to Article L. 713-2 of the French Intellectual Property Code.

Likewise, any use of the Site’s content for illegal purposes will lead to legal proceedings against the offender(s).

As an exception, some content (texts, images, etc.) belongs to its respective authors and BNP Paribas S.A. uses it with their consent.

3 - LIABILITY

BNP Paribas endeavours to ensure the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information disseminated on this Site and reserves the right to correct or change the content or presentation of this website at any time and without notice.

BNP Paribas cannot guarantee the exhaustiveness or that no changes have been made by a third party (intrusion, virus, etc.).

BNP Paribas declines any direct or indirect liability concerning the accuracy, the absence of errors, the updated nature and the availability of the information contained on the Site.

BNP Paribas may not be held liable for any decision made on the basis of information contained on the Site or for the use that third parties might make of it.

BNP Paribas declines any liability in the event of any delay, error or omission as regards the content of these web pages or if the Site is taken down or unavailable.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable in any circumstances for any indirect damage of whatever nature in this regard.

4 - TECHNICAL DAMAGE

Users are reminded that there is no guarantee messages transmitted on the internet will remain confidential and that the responsibility lies with the individual user to take all appropriate measures to protect his or her own data and/or software programs against contamination by possible viruses circulating on the internet.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website may not be held liable for matters outside its control and for any damage that may be caused by the user’s technical environment, in particular computers, software programs, network equipment and any other devices used to gain access to the website or to use it and/or the information it contains.

5 - HYPERTEXT LINKS

Prior authorisation must be obtained from the publisher before creating hypertext links to the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website. In an exception to the foregoing, the user has the possibility of distributing certain identified content on the internet by using an internet address in the form of a hypertext link. In this scenario, the user is authorised to create hypertext links to the web page on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website incorporating the said content.

It is expressly agreed that the Site’s publisher may, if the circumstances/context in which the hypertext link is used were to damage the image of BNP Paribas or the integrity of the publication, require the immediate withdrawal by the relevant user of the said hypertext link.

BNP Paribas is not liable for the content of sites with hypertext links linking to the Site.

By clicking on hypertext links linking to other sites from the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com website, the user leaves the Site.

The publisher of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site declines any liability concerning the content and possible damage incurred when visiting websites to which the website leads via hypertext links.

The user assumes responsibility for visits to other sites and does so at his/her own risk.

6 - COOKIES

The user is informed that a cookie may install itself automatically and be stored temporarily in the computer’s memory or hard drive when visiting the Site. A cookie is used to recognise the browser of the terminal from which the user connects to the Site, notably in order to store the browser’s display preferences, find out and meet as effectively as possible the user’s expectations or to produce traffic statistics for the Site.

The user may configure the browser to store cookies on his/her terminal, to reject them, either systematically or according to their issuer, or to inform him/her when a cookie is stored on the terminal. To find out ways of setting preferences for cookies, the user should refer to the browser’s help menu.

7 - PDF FILES

To read a PDF file, the user will need to download the latest version of the Acrobat Reader software program in French xxx ?? xxx. If the user does not have a version of the software program that can read PDF files on this website, he or she must download the software program, it being specified that this download can be made only from a site other than www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

8 - PERSONAL DATA

Personal information/data entered by the user on the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site when subscribing to the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications will be processed in complete confidentiality by BNP Paribas solely for the following purposes:

- transmission of the BNP Paribas Economic Research publications to which the user has subscribed,
- solely for the internal management purposes of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site and to comply with the statutory and regulatory obligations.

No other use will be made by BNP Paribas of the personal information/data entered.

The user has the right to access, correct and delete the personal data collected on the Site as provided for in the French Law no. 78-17 of 6 January 1978 as amended on Data Processing, Data Files and Individual Liberties. The user may exercise these rights:

> by sending an email to the following address:
michel.bernardini@bnpparibas.com

9 - APPLICABLE LAW

The content of the www.economic-research.bnpparibas.com site is subject to the law applicable in France. All users acknowledge the competence of the courts within the jurisdiction of the Paris Court of Appeal for all matters related to the content and use of the website or disputes arising therefrom.