Wednesday, November 28, 2012

A disastrous first half to the season hasn’t made Russell Martin unattractive to other teams now that he’s on the free agent market.

According to his agent, Matt Colleran, the catcher has met with several teams and gotten offers, although Colleran declined to specify which teams.

“We’re having talks with everybody,” Colleran said. “Everything is ongoing ... Russell has made visits to multiple cities and received offers.”

The Yankees remain interested in retaining the 29-year-old Martin, who rebounded late in the season and provides stability behind the plate.

Martin's supposedly seeking a four year deal at $9-10M per year, and I don't think I'd do that if I were the Yankees. Here's how Martin and some of the catchers in the Yankee organization project according to CAIRO in 2013.

If you use BR/650 as a crude method of comparing them on offense you can see the difference between Martin and the others. Now a catcher doesn't get 650 PA in a season so drop that down some, maybe by about 10%.

Sanchez is probably at least two years away, but in two years he may be a better hitter than Martin and he won't be costing you $10M per year. On offense alone, Cervelli projects to be less than one win worse than Martin. I think CAIRO may be optimistic on Romine, but Stewart's projection doesn't seem that bad and it's only about a win worse than Martin. I don't know why Whiteside was even acquired, although perhaps he's a phenomenal defensive catcher in ways that aren't captured by his average SB/CS numbers (30.5%).

And that segues into a consideration that is ignored when looking at offensive projections. In traditional defensive numbers Martin's nothing special, but as people have tried to quantify a catcher's impact on pitch framing there's evidence Martin's one of the best in the league. Does that add a win to his value? It could. And it's likely none of the other candidates will be that good, now or in a few years.

Still, I find it hard to reconcile signing Martin for more than two years while trying to maintain a lower payroll. Especially if the Yankees intend to sign Robinson Cano after 2013.

19 comments:

I can see going three years on Martin because the best prospects in the system are unlikely to be major league ready before then. I can't see going four. Maybe the Yankees could front load the contract to keep the 189m cap holy, sacrosanct and inviolate.

Whiteside was available and essentially "free", and is protection if they can't sign Martin or any other C. So in that case, Whiteside is the backup at AAA, probably Stewart the backup at MLB, and then either Romine or Cervelli is the starter and the other in AAA. Not all particularly good options, but possibly better than signing any of the available catchers.

Suppose it takes 40M/4yr to sign him. AAV=10M for tax purposes. If they pay him 15M the first year, then he'll be owed 25M over the next 3 years. Assuming he doesn't have an awful year, or a career threatening injury, that should be a pretty easy contract to trade if needed to get under 189M in 2014. Don't know if it would be worth the risk though.

Mel, I'd suggest that *starting* the year w/ Cervelli and Stewart - and hoping that Romine or Murphey is ready to be league-average 2nd half of year - may be better than getting Pierzynski (at 36 could fall off a cliff; or his attitude someone could push him), or overpaying Martin or a number of other poor choices.

Remember, the 1996 Yankees had 122 games of Girardi as the starting catcher. 1.2 fWAR. Leyritz had his .9 fWAR - some gained at other positions - backed him up. They don't NEED an average catcher to compete. Makes it easier for sure, and they should definitely try to get one. But not at the expense of the future.

I wonder how many more years this late-career renaissance needs to continue for Pettitte to make the HoF. He's just 5 wins shy of 250. The Black Ink/Gray Ink indicators aren't great, but he's about there according to BR's Hall of Fame Monitor/Standards. With 2 more good years he could move up from 44th to Top 25 on the all-time K's list, but he'd still be below average for a HoF pitcher according to career bWAR.

I think the rings and his postseason resume will outweigh the PED stuff, especially with the more enlightened voters in the future..but I also think the new voters will judge him harsher for his overall body of work (currently 91st among pitchers in JAWS score)