Why polling is a fading indicator of the people’s vote, and prediction markets are the future of election speculation.

“All voting is a sort of gaming,… and betting naturally accompanies it” – Henry David Thoreau

Sticking with a Vegas theme set by the next debate venue, let’s talk gambling.

Americans have been betting on presidential elections since George Washington bested John Adams in 1789. However, back in the day gamers gathered in pool halls, card rooms, and gentlemen’s clubs; whereas, in 2016, a legal (albeit limited) wager can be placed on internet betting sites.

As polls become less reliable, prediction markets play a bigger role in speculating the outcome of a presidential election. Although there are inherent flaws, fewer landlines, easily deceived automated interviewers and an inability to incorporate expatriates in the data have created a vacuum gambling sites have graciously filled.

Political memorabilia is an especially effective snapshot of the era and narrative it intends to represent. This year is rife with historical significance – the first female presidential candidate, and Donald Trump. Nevertheless, determining whether a button is a dust collector or a collectible, it may be more complicated than it seems.

This year, unlike few previous presidential campaign seasons, “valuable” directly correlates to flat out hatred for the “anti” candidate. One NeverTrump slogan-turned-button is “We shall overcomb,” and the NeverHillary’s are sporting pins with “Time to get wise, we know she lies.”

Today in history. October 18, 1929, a Canadian court found “women were indeed persons.” Until then, an 1876 obsolete law had been in effect which defined women as “persons in matters of pains and penalties, but are not persons in matters of rights and privileges.”

In 1916, magistrate Emily Murphy, hearing her first case, was set to announce her ruling. Understanding he was about to lose, the attorney invoked the 1876 law claiming Murphy’s judgment invalid because she was not a “person” under the law.

Thirteen years later and after losing on appeal to the Supreme Court, women won the right to serve in public office. The Persons Case set a precedent in “at least 17 cases in courts in Ireland, Australia, and India.” It was “The court case that changed everything.”