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Debt ceiling talks between Joe Biden, Mitch McConnell

Talks between McConnell and Biden continue as the battle gets personal. | John Shinkle/AP Photo
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The disparity was as much as $21 billion in 2012 and $26 billion in 2013. And CBO opted to count this as an added cost because the agency is always suspicious that the House and Senate Appropriations Committees will treat any cap as an invitation to spend up to the ceiling target.

By altering the caps, the House GOP was able to get credit for added savings of up to $47 billion. When interest savings are included, this translates into about $66 billion in additional deficit reduction — enough to get Boehner over the top for his first installment.

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What lies ahead on the second round — which would begin playing out in November and December — is much less certain.

The House bill would create a 12-member joint leadership committee that would report back an estimated $1.8 trillion in new deficit reduction by Thanksgiving. And Congress would have to approve the package prior to Christmas under a set of expedited procedures.

If lawmakers succeed, Obama could then request an additional debt ceiling increase of upward of $1.6 trillion, calculated to be enough to carry the government through the 2012 elections. But if Congress stumbles and fails to act, at either the committee stage or the House and Senate floors, the president would not be authorized to ask for more borrowing authority. And the same default threat would recur when the first installment of $900 billion runs out.

McConnell and, to some degree, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) agree that the joint committee has real potential — especially if the four House and Senate leaders are thoughtful about whom they appoint. But high savings targets and the more than dollar-for-dollar standard adopted by Boehner demand hundreds of billions more in cuts than the speaker was prepared to accept from Obama only last week.

This sets up a political nightmare for the president in which he will be back in the same sort of crisis as today, with Republicans refusing to consider new tax revenue and putting pressure on spending as Obama runs for reelection.

“We heard that in your caucus you said the Senate will support your bill. We are writing to tell you that we will not support it and give you the reasons why,” the 53 senators wrote in their letter to the speaker. “A short-term extension like the one in your bill would put America at risk, along with every family and business in it. Your approach would force us once again to face the threat of default in five or six short months.”

“In addition to risking a downgrade and catastrophic default,” the letter continued, “we are concerned that in five or six months, the House will once again hold the economy captive and refuse to avoid another default unless we accept unbalanced, deep cuts to programs like Medicare and Social Security, without asking anything of the wealthiest Americans.”

“There are only three possible outcomes in this battle: President Obama gets his blank check; America defaults; or we call the president’s bluff by coming together and passing a bill that cuts spending and can pass in the United States Senate,” Boehner told the rank and file, according to aides to the speaker. “There is no other option.”

Explain to me the logic in sending a House bill that the Senate will not support. Rather than finding common ground and offering real solutions both sides are engaged in mock theatrics.

Right now the odds are that Boehner's plan won't even pass in the House, which if that were to happen would beg the question why he is even the Speaker.

The republicans who campaign against smoke and mirrors are now relying on budget calculations so complicated that only the geekiest staffer could follow them. And they are pushing a bill positively baroque in its rules--a return to negotiations in six months, a super-committee doing the work of congress.

If the Republicans cared about more than scoring points against the president, they'd be delighted with how many concessions they won already. In a normal political situation, mainstream republicans would use the pressure created by their right wing to get a good deal, one to the right of center, but that both democrats and republicans could sign off on--as the democrats are using their left wing, but certainly not being dictated by them.

I'm not sure if its greed, cowardice, or the desire for political revenge that is motivating the republicans, but we're all losers, even conservatives who'd genuinely like a good budget deal.

The Dems likely will NOT kill the Boehner bill. If they do, the impending default will be on their backs, not the Republicans. This will be the second bill the Republicans have sent up as an effort to compromise and try to avoid default. Meanwhile, Reid can't pass his own bill in the Senate, and the Dems have not yet even offered a bill for a vote yet.

Despite the supposed letter by all the Dems in the Senate, I doubt that they will really kill the bill. Let's face facts. The Dems have 23 caucus members up for reelection in the Senate in just a bit over a year from now. They do NOT want to take responsibility for killing the bill that would prevent default. Certainly there will be four or five of those Dems (13 of which are in red states) who will cross over and say, "to save the nation, I am going to vote in favor of this bill."

It would be easy for the Dems to pass the bill and then punt it over to the President for a veto. It wouldn't hurt them, and they could avoid the backlash from the voters by letting Obama take the heat. If they vote to kill the bill, and we have a default, them it will be on their back for the consequences.Much easier to duck.

Everyone knows this deficit is all on Obama & his czars & his 111th Congress. They don't want it to lower. They want us to go under become a third world country under a Global One World Order under the UN. And we got idiots like John McCain & some other Republicans who won't do anything about it but side with him.

Mcconnell negotiating on behalf of the GOP makes me nervous. He doesn't strike me as especially bright or as having much fortitude. Luckily , Biden may be even more intellectually challenged. Seriously, these two inside the belt way hacks can negotiate with each other all they want and it won't make a lick of difference. The Senate is going to pass the bill that comes out of the house, with some minor cosmetic changes that will allow Dingy Harry to save face. And Barry will sign it despite his phony veto threats. Despite all the cry babying on the left, the house GOP freshmen have won this debate. Obama is going to sign a bill with no new taxes, with real cuts and spending reforms, and which will only give his debt extension through the end of the year, everything he said he doesn't want. You lefties can bite down on it because your messiah is about to sell you out. He'll sign his name to anything at this point.

There won't be any crisis. The CBO, FED, OMB, Teasury, and the Trustees all say we must reform entitlement programs or they will end as we know them. President Obama and Pelosi and Reid have all pledged to reform those programs. And we can do those reforms over the next six months, so this is not really a crisis unless the Dems make it a crisis. After all, we are not talking about ending the programs, merely finding respnsible savings and some minor restructuring. Surely we can do that when we know we must reach a compromise.

The question is not whether or not to reform those programs. The question is when will we do the reforms and what those reforms will be. We must do it, so let's do it now.

McConnell and Biden can talk. They can discuss a backup plan. In fact, the Speaker has reiterated that his last offer to Obama on the "grand plan" is still on the table. Obama chose to "go to the Ameircan people" and he dnounced Boehn er is a public national address where he then demanded that Boehn or come to his office for more talks, Which Boehner aceded to. Then Obama blasted him agains and said it was all up to Congress and he was withdrawing from negotiations.

So, Boehner has developed a compromise plan. Weaker than CCB, but including some of the same features, but done in two phases, and not tying it to a guarantee of a passage of the BBA. This doesn't satisfy the WH, however. So they are on the warpath.

The bottom line is that Biden and McConnell can talk, but the only other agreement that can pass and meet the deadline is the one that Boehner proposed to Obama at the last negoation where Boehner agreedd to including $800 bil in revenues, but Obama said this wasn't enough and demanded another $400 bil.

Boehner will pass his plan on Thursday of Friday. Then it will be up to the Dems in the Senate. Will they really play chicken with default and the economy? Will they pass the Boehner plan and kick it to Obama to veto it, or will they stand up and take responsibility for killing the compromise and bringing about a default? I am betting they kick it to Obama.