Referendum Blog: May 21

BLATANT BIAS: Each daily BBC programme does not have to be balanced, due impartiality can be achieved over time. But who at the BBC is keeping check on these equations and where are their findings so that their version of ‘balance’ can be properly checked? Last night the main BBC1 bulletins were blatantly biased against the ‘leave’ side, confirming longer term trends. Michael Gove from Vote Leave had presented findings which showed that if Turkey and four other countries joined the EU, the health service could be inundated with unbearable workloads. Deputy political editor John Pienaar, in reports for both News at Six and News at Ten, worked flat out to debunk the claims primarily by stating, in effect, that despite what Gove said, it was impossible that Turkey would be allowed to join soon, if at all. In his choice of words, he also introduced the concepts that those who worried about immigration were bigots and that making such claims were ‘scaremongering’. His emphasis and phraseology were fascinating object lessons in how bias can be introduced. He actually said that those who were concerned about immigration were ‘not bigots’, but his words had the opposite effect. He was actually presenting the views through the bigotry lens. Overall, it looked at 6pm that the main aim of coverage of the Gove statement was to rubbish it on three levels: that it was no credible, that bigotry was behind it; and that Boris Johnson, the (undeclared)leader of the Vote Leave campaign had said in the past that he did not think Turkey would be able to join the EU. The latter point was particularly underhand and misleading. It was not said when Johnson had made the remarks, and the context in which he had made them was not disclosed; nor was he or Vote Leave given the opportunity to comment. The desire to rubbish Vote Leave was confirmed at 10pm when claims by George Osborne that house prices would fall by 18% in the event of Brexit were elevated to the lead EU referendum item. Osborne’s claims were not subjected to the same type of scrutiny as Gove’s, and indeed, business editor Kamal Ahmad worked to increase the strength of the Chancellor’s warning by also including comment that the French finance minister that Britain would not be allowed to have a free trade agreement in the event of Brexit. Gove’s claims were demoted in the running order.

Transcript of BBC 1, News at Six and News at Ten, 20th May 2016

News at Six, 6.11pm

REETA CHAKRABARTI: Well, there was a warning about more pressure on the NHS today. The Vote Leave campaign in the EU referendum say that staying in the European Union could add over five million people to the UK’s population by 2030 – ramping up demand on hospitals and GPs. That’s disputed by the Remain campaign – as our Deputy Political Editor John Pienaar reports.

JOHN PIENAAR: Which way to the worst crisis yet in A&E? Stay in the European Union and watch our Accident and Emergency wards being overwhelmed by demands for treatment from millions of new migrants. Scared? Well, today, the Leave campaign’s minister of the moment, was doing his best.

MICHAEL GOVE Justice Secretary, Vote Leave: The idea of the asking the NHS to look after after a new group of patients, equivalent in size to four Birminghams is clearly unsustainable.

JP: You just said that the equivalent of four Birminghams, a population the size of Scotland could arrive in the country within 15 years. Do you believe that is remotely likely or are you scaremongering?

MG: The document that we are releasing today lays out in detail a series of projections, a modest, a medium and a high level projection on the level of migration. And they reflect both economic reality and what’s happened in history as well.

JP: But will the warnings about migration bring in votes? Probably yes.

VOX POP FEMALE: I think it would have a huge effect not only on public services, it would have an effect on education and the housing crisis that’s commencing at the moment.

VOX POP MALE: Immigrants are used as a erm . . . sort of a scapegoat from certain parties to sort of push their agendas. It’s easy to do, it’s been done for as old as time itself.

JP: The Leave campaign deny they’re scaremongering but some of the numbers today do look scary and they are meant to. They are also open to question. Take a look. We are told if we stay in the EU that will add between 2.5 and 5 million to the population. Why? Because it assumes that five countries, including Turkey, all join the Union by 2020, which is doubtful. It takes no account of new controls. David Cameron says Turkey won’t be joining for decades. But the Leave side say it would add between 6 and 13 visits to A&E departments, and increase of 57%. Why? Because migration and A&E visits have both gone up – there’s no conclusive evidence that the two sets of numbers are linked.

PHILIP HAMMOND MP Foreign Secretary, Remain: Well, I think these figures are very often just plucked, er, from thin air, and they’re not designed to inform, they’re designed to confuse. Every single member state has a veto on any additional member, er, joining. So this decision that we will make, when the time comes for each individual applicant country.

BORIS JOHNSON Conservative, Vote Leave: Turkey’s been a candidate for membership of the EU since 1963. I think the chances of the Turks readily acceding to the European Union are between, you know, nil and 20%.

JP: Today, the head of the European commission has warned that Britain would be seen as a deserter if it left the EU, and struggle for good terms outside. David Cameron’s been posing with performers and celebrities, claiming Britain’s more creative inside the EU. But claims and counterclaims on both sides are getting more creative by the day. John Pienaar, BBC News.

News at Ten, 10.10pm

REETA CHAKRABARTI: The Chancellor George Osborne has told the BBC that house prices could be up to 18% lower if the UK left the EU. It’s a claim made in a Treasury report out next week, which argues that Brexit would create a series of economic shocks to housing, employment and wages. But Leave campaigners say lower house prices would be good for first-time buyers. Mr Osborne, who’s in Japan at a meeting of the G7 finance ministers, has been speaking to our Economics Editor Kamal Ahmed.

KAMAL AHMED: Thousands of miles away in Japan but still trying to hammer home the message – leaving the EU is no laughing matter, it may be bad for the British economy. I met George Osborne at the G7 summit, and he revealed the first details of another Treasury forecast on the costs, as they seem them, of Brexit.

GEORGE OSBORNE MP Chancellor of the Exchequer: One consequence of leaving the European Union is that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes of at least 10%, and up to 18%. At the same time mortgages will get more expensive and mortgage rates will go up. Some people say that is a price worth paying. I say we are stronger and better off inside the European Union.

KA: But surely, Chancellor, some people might say that lower house prices is good for people, it makes houses more affordable?

GO: We all want affordable homes, and the way you get affordable homes is by building more houses, you don’t get affordable homes by wrecking the British economy.

KA: His allies in the Brexit debate agree with a lot of the analysis – rising mortgage rates and slower economic growth could all reduce housing demand and therefore prices. It is also claimed there will be other costs. The French Finance Minister told me that leaving the EU would bring a bill, although any negotiations would be friendly.

MICHAEL SAPIN French Finance Minister (Translated) It will be costly for the UK. It is an illusion to think by having a free trade negotiation with the EU, you will have more than you have right now.

KA: Here at the G7 Summit where I interviewed the Chancellor, there has been a definite change of tack when it comes to the European Union referendum. Yes, there is still the big macro-economic arguments around the impact of Britain leaving the EU but also there’s a new message that this stuff matters. It’s about the everyday, it’s about the voters, it’s about their house prices, it’s about employment, it’s even about how much people earn. In Britain, a land of high house prices, economists who support the UK leaving the EU put the argument very differently.

GERARD LYONS Former Advisor to Boris Johnson: The outlook for house prices does not depend on the EU or on Brexit. We have not built enough houses for the last four decades. Young people will still need to buy houses whether we are in or out of the EU. The froth may be knocked off the top of the market but the reality is this: we need to stop focussing only on the short-term.

KA: And it’s the same for trade.

GL: Trade is a big positive for Brexit. Currently in the European Union, our trade demands are only one of 28 countries, services do not figure prominently in the EU trade deals and the EU is slow at doing those trade deals.

KA: On June 23, referendum day, the train will leave the station, its destination either to remain in or leave the EU. Neither side wants to come second in that battle. Kamal Ahmed, BBC News.

RC: Well, meanwhile, there was a warning from the Vote Leave campaign that staying in the EU could add over 5 million people to the UK’s population by 2030 – putting the NHS under “unsustainable pressure”. The claim came from the Justice Secretary Michael Gove, who said the rise would come from countries like Turkey joining the EU. But campaigners against a British exit dismissed the calculations as “absurd”, as our Deputy Political Editor John Pienaar reports.

JOHN PIENAAR: Which way to the worst crisis yet in A&E? Stay in the European Union and watch our accident and emergency wards being overwhelmed by demands for treatment from millions of new migrants. Scared? Well, today the Leave campaign’s minister of the moment was doing his best.

MICHAEL GOVE Justice Secretary, Vote Leave: The idea of the asking the NHS to look after after a new group of patients, equivalent in size to four Birminghams is clearly unsustainable.

JP: You just said that the equivalent of four Birminghams, a population the size of Scotland could arrive in the country within 15 years. Do you believe that is remotely likely or are you scaremongering?

MG: The document that we are releasing today lays out in detail a series of projections, a modest, a medium and a high level projection on the level of migration. And they reflect both economic reality and what’s happened in history as well.

JP: But will the warnings about migration bring in votes? Probably yes. Worrying about migration doesn’t mean you are a bigot.

VOX POP FEMALE: I think it would have a huge effect not only on public services, it would have an effect on education and the housing crisis that’s commencing at the moment.

VOX POP MALE: Immigrants are used as a erm . . . sort of a scapegoat from certain parties to sort of push their agendas. It’s easy to do, it’s been done for as old as time itself.

JP: The Leave campaign deny they’re scaremongering but some of the numbers today do look scary and they are meant to. They are also open to question. Take a look. We are told if we stay in the EU that will add between 2.5 and 5 million to the population. Why? Because it assumes that five countries, including Turkey, all join the Union by 2020, which is doubtful. It takes no account of new controls. David Cameron says Turkey won’t be joining for decades. But the Leave side say it would add between 6 and 13 visits to A&E departments, and increase of 57%. Why? Because migration and A&E visits have both gone up – there’s no conclusive evidence that the two sets of numbers are linked.

PHILIP HAMMOND MP Foreign Secretary, Remain: Well, I think these figures are very often just plucked, er, from thin air, and they’re not designed to inform, they’re designed to confuse. Every single member state has a veto on any additional member, er, joining. So this decision that we will make, when the time comes for each individual applicant country.

BORIS JOHNSON Conservative, Vote Leave: Turkey’s been a candidate for membership of the EU since 1963. I think the chances of the Turks readily acceding to the European Union are between, you know, nil and 20%.

JP: Today, the head of the European Commission has warned that Britain would be seen as a deserter if it left the EU, and struggle for good terms outside. David Cameron’s been posing with performers and celebrities, claiming Britain’s more creative inside the EU. But claims and counterclaims on both sides are getting more creative by the day. John Pienaar, BBC News.