A few drops today, buckets next week

As of 4 p.m. today, Lindbergh had recorded only a trace of rain, and fom the satellite pic, it doesn't look like there's much left out there. So San Diego will likely make it through the first half of January with no measurable rain.

A few spots did manage a hundredth of an inch or more, but many places were shut out. Spots with 0.01: Oceanside Airport, San Marcos, Ramona Airport, Leucadia, Carlsbad. Cardiff was swimming with 0.02, Vista had 0.03, Fallbrook had 0.04, and Mount Laguna scored with 0.10.

Heh. It's better than nuthin', I guess. ...

But looking at the GFS model's 60-hour accumulation map for next Wednesday, we could get 3 inches or more. And that's not all for next week. We could get a couple more inches from a colder storm later in the week. We might TRIPLE the current seaon total of 2.4 inches before then end of the month.

The afternoon area forecast discussion says the storms next week could cause urban flooding, blizzardlike conditions in the mountains and mudslides in the recent burn areas. Yes, when it rains, it pours (not counting today, of course).

It should be a tremendous week for the state's snowpack and water supply. The storms should pound the Sierra with several feet of snow.

IF it all transpires as expected, there could be interesting discussions about El Nino's role. The second storm next week is supposed to be very cold, with snow levels dropping as low as 2,000 feet. That's not a El Nino trademark. The flow is not expected to be zonal, or straight across the Pacific, as it usually is with El Nino.

Some stats from NOAA:

The December 2009 average temperature for the contiguous United States was 30.2 degrees, which is 3.2 degrees below average. Last month's average precipitation was 2.88 inches, which is 0.65 inch above the 1901-2000 average.

For 2009, the contiguous United States averaged 53.1 degrees, which was 0.3 degrees warmer than average. The U.S. averaged 31.47 inches of precipitation for the year, which was 2.33 inches above the long-term average. ...

Today will be the first day all month when the high doesn't make it above normal in San Diego. Lindbergh only reached 63 today; normal is 66.