16 comments:

Hi Cad,I noticed the strong trend early on, and I did expect a second leg up after bar 11, but it obviously didn't happen until way later when it had first taken out b/e stops off that initial fL2. So all in all very difficult to make money even if you get the analysis right today. Pretty rare that we don't get a second leg up in the early part I believe...?

Hi Trader33, you could have bought anytime during the spike from b8-10 and have your stop below b8 expecting a measured move of the bodies of the spike (reached at b67 or b68).Al talks and writes a lot about it. Read the new book about trading ranges.

I marked b5 as fL2 or shoud I wait for bar b6? Anyway I wasnt so shure because b3 nor b6 didnt extend below previous bar.

After it I marked b11 as L1 an b13 as L2. After it I marked b15 as L1 and b16 as H1 or should I reset the count due to b16 outsidebar? Then I marked b19 as L2, b23 as H2 and after b27 close I marked it as fH2 but after b33 and didnt knew what next... If I expected some deep PB at the moment I were completely lost. I marked b39 as G2 but I didnt knew exactly what happened before b11-b33.

I understand that the leg count gets reset every new trend push either side, but what counts as a new trend push vs. just a pullback in a correction.

For example: In the link below I count b11 as an L3, but you marked it is an L1, what was your reason for resetting the leg count? http://ninetrans.blogspot.com/2011/03/correctly-trading-soft-trend.html

My suggestion is to stop counting Hs and Ls and look at pullbacks as sequences of 2 or 3 leg moves. So b11-19 is a leg down, embedded within it is a small leg up b15-18, followed by 2 legs to b27 and two or three legs down to b37.