Friday, February 12, 2010

Taking suggestions

Next week we have our monthly 2012 Presidential poll, as well as our look at what's going on in North Carolina. Starting with the NC poll we're going to have a new wrinkle I think we'll be including on all of our statewide polls from here on out that I know all you political junkies will be very happy about- stay tuned!

For next weekend we'll take a second look at the Texas primary- Debra Medina's success is what makes it interesting and as long as she's a continued threat to Kay Bailey Hutchison we'll probably do one the weekend before the election as well.

What other statewide poll should we do next weekend? Usual criteria- don't want to repeat something we've done in the last few months, don't want to do something there are a million polls out there on. Think outside the box- and have a good weekend!

I think VA-11 needs to get some attention, it's a prototypical swing district with a Freshman Rep facing 2 credible challengers. How Connolly is doing will give vital info on the prospects of Dems in districts like PA-3, NY-20&25, MI-9, KY-3, GA-12 and thus GOP chances of getting from the likely 25-30 seat pickup scenario to 40+

Tennessee has been one of the most under-polled states holding elections. It's conventional wisdom that the Republicans are favored to take back the governorship, but to my knowledge there have been no public polls on the race at all. Also the GOP primary should be very competitive and worth a look. Other things to see are Al Gore's favorables in his old stomping grounds, how Governor Bredesen's doing (if he's still doing well he could be a future Senate candidate someday), an early look at Bob Corker's numbers, and a generic ballot test for state legislature: do the Democrats have a chance of reversing the narrow Republican majority in the House and Senate?

Not so much a different state, but if you are already polling Texas, why not poll on the school board issue? The NY Times Magazine did some coverage on it for this weekend, I'd be interested to see how Texans feel about their state school board changing the curriculum.

My suggestions would be polling Washington Senate with Dino Rossi or Dave Reichert and some of the already announced candidates, Indiana Senate with Dan Coats, and try Wisconsin Senate with Mark Neumann as a candidate.

As every time, I would love to see a Montana poll. Baucus, Tester, Obama, Schweitzer, Rehberg for favorability, Obama's chances in 2012, Tester vs. Rehberg in 2012, Schweitzer vs. Rehberg for the House seat in 2012, something like 'Would you like to see Brian Schweitzer run for President in 2016?'...

Also, a poll on Alan Grayson in Florida-08 would be nice.Or what about the Murtha special election?

Also, at least two open seats vacated by Dems in districts that have turned belligerently conservative. And the Memphis seat as well, a traditionally Democrat plantation seat, but these days, who knows?

If you want to do district polls, more in Virginia would be nice. VA-02 (R primary and GE matchups), VA-09 (Boucher vs. Morgan Griffith) and VA-11 (R primary and GE matchups) are all potentially competitive. And I'd be interested to see how Rob Wittman is doing in VA-01. Probably won't be close, but he does have two decently-funded challengers.

Another option is the Oklahoma governor's race. Is GOP grassroots-favored State Sen. Randy Brogdon gaining ground on establishment candidate Congresswoman Mary Fallin? Will Democrat Lt. Gov. Jari Askins beat Atty. Gen. Drew Edmondson? Can the Democrats hold onto the governorship in Oklahoma, where they are losing their voter registration lead, and have lost the legislature?

Nevada. Las Vegas Sun is reporting that the Tea Party has qualified to run a candidate against Dems and GOP this november. It would be interesting to see how this new developments bears for Reid's fortunes.

Both of NH's Congressional Districts. A poll came out showing both likely Republicans leading both races by decent margins. There have also been polls that show the governors race may not be a safe as everyone thinks. John Lynch has also not ruled out retiring.

We need to find the point where a district is a total toss-up in the House as distinct from leaning slightly one way or another. Pick some in NY (1, 19 or 25), PA-8, OR-5, OH-18, VA (9 ,11 or both), NM (1, 2 or both), IA-3, IL-14, IN-9, or even HI-1.