Comments on: RISP-ect! Cardinals shatter the all-time clutch hitting recordhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/
Baseball. Baseball. And then a bit more baseball.Sun, 02 Aug 2015 23:04:02 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/By: Steve Garciahttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-714420
Sun, 01 Jun 2014 17:13:51 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-714420Yes, some players – like, say, Michael Jordan, have proven to be able to either elevate their games, or at the least to not choke.

Perhaps we should refer to it as non-choking. At least anecdotally some players DO choke in pressure situations. Those who don’t choke we recognize as “steady contributors” – those who don’t fail in pressure situations.

Writing this on the 1st of June, 2014, we can look at STL and where they are this year, vs last.year. Right now the RISP for STL is .237 – down almost 100 points. And still the Cardinals have the 4th best record in the NL, amazingly. At this point in 2013 STL was battling for the best record in the NL. Their overall BA is .256, so rather than last year’s .269 BA and .330 RISP the numbers are reversed – much less production with RISP than BA. Not hitting in the clutch.

So apparently the Cardinals figured out how to hit better in the clutch in 2011, forgot how to do it in 2012, and remembered again how to do it (and then some) in 2013?

Uh, OK. Hope they don’t “forget” again in 2014.

]]>By: jrbdmbhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-587083
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 21:51:01 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-587083If only the Pirates could have traded for Jeter this year, then they may have been able to compete with the Cards for clutch-iness.
]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-587034
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 20:25:27 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-587034And there is so much more. Almost all pitchers are more effective out of the wind-up than out of the stretch. Plus, the pitcher is distracted. Not just focusing on the hitter, but having to share attention to the runners.

Here’s more. It has been established, that a .250 hitter becomes a .300 hitter when the infield is in. So not only does this come into play when the infield is actually in, but supports the idea that if the infield defenders, who are forced to shorten up with runners on, would succumb to the same geometric disadvantages as fielders who have to play in with a runner on third and less than two outs.

]]>By: forsch31http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-587019
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 20:08:37 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-587019>>”Perhaps. But if that’s the case, what changed since last year?”

The batting coach. John Mabry replaced Mark McGwire after McGwire left for the Dodgers. I think Goold had a story in the first part of the season about the Cardinals’ different approach at the plate since since Mabry took over, which may have fueled the RISP team stat. I’ll see if I can find it later.

But yeah, RISP is pretty much a counting stat and not an indicator of past or future performance.

]]>By: jm91rshttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586995
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 19:29:45 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586995As for “why not use that approach all the time”, well it’s pretty obvious that the value of reaching base is not weighed the same by everyone. A guy like Joey Votto almost led the league in homers one year, then decided getting on base was more important and now he’s an on-base machine but the homers dropped significantly. There are probably other players with his ability that could get on base like him, but they haven’t adopted the mindset that a walk is as good as a hit and that the occasional homerun mixed in with a high on base percentage is better than mashing them and never getting on base. Seeing the entire Cardinals team (other than one) with such a great average with RISP, my gut tells me there is some good coaching going on there, and if they can translate that approach to every at bat they’ll get even better.

No one here is saying they learned how to hit better in those situations. No one is saying they took some magical fairy dust or whatever crazy reason stat people try to use when mocking the “scout” people. All I’m saying (and Spudchukar, who by the way I’ve never before agreed with) is that a players’ approach can change, would change the results.

]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586985
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 19:23:25 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586985Ok, one last time. This explanation gets old, but I will make the effort once again. Call it Baseball for Dummies, HardballTalk edition.

Let’s start with the scenario of runners on first and second and one or nobody out. First off, the first baseman has to hold the runner on which opens a hole between first and second. Next, the second baseman has to play closer to second in order to be in position to complete a double play chance. The shortstop must play shallower, to try and hold the runner on second closer to the bag to keep him from stealing third, and the third baseman must play in, in case the hitter is instructed to bunt,(more often the case with no one out).

The outfield must deepen to cut off balls in the gap, (not a strategy that I happen to adhere to but it is most common).

So a ball that is struck without runners on base is much more likely to get through the infield, particularly one that is hit towards right, or up the middle. This is what the Cards do. And they add the fact that they do this on fastballs. Teams are more hesitant to pitch inside with runners on for the fear of the 3-run homer, playing into the hands of the team that chooses this approach.

With the outfield deeper, line drives hit in front of them drop in more often. As indicated earlier, it is really simply geometry. But it isn’t just after the ball is hit into play that geometry comes into play. It is also the swing approach.

If a player keeps his bat parallel longer the chances of making solid contact, squaring up the ball increases, and this occurs much more often when trying to hit the ball where it is pitched, again simple geometry. Those, who try to pull, jerk, and lift the ball, hit more homers but hit fewer balls squarely.

As if all this wasn’t enough, pitchers are also at a strategic disadvantage in the above scenario. Breaking balls that he wouldn’t be afraid to bounce can no longer be in consideration for the fear that runners can advance a base.

I could go on and on, there are so many other advantages, but the fundamental fact is that a ball that is struck identically with no one on base is much more likely to be caught, than when the same struck ball with guys on base.

]]>By: jm91rshttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586984
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 19:22:05 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586984Ignore the word clutch. Ignore the idea that the effect at the plate is not repeatable and think about approach (which is absolutely repeatable with the right coaching). Let’s think about a game situation. I’m a dude that has enough power to hit 20 hr per season. My teammate is standing on 3rd. I swing different if I’m really trying to hit a HR than I do to drive the ball to the opposite field for a single. Do I swing for the fences or just make contact to drive the runner in? Obviously depends on game situation, meaning every at bat is not the same and therefore does not need to be repeatable. I believe that the Cardinals are able to do what is most likely to lead to a run in those RISP situations. They approach the at bat differently, and as such they are hitting less HR but driving in more when runners are on 2nd and 3rd. You can lift the ball or you can drive the ball, when a simple single will do it makes more sense to not swing for the fences.
]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586952
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:49:11 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586952Not my fault if you ignore the obvious.
]]>By: moogrohttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586942
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:24:37 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586942Coaching is important, and some things are measurable. Things like how runners are handled, working pitch counts, pinch-hitting for match-ups are all done really well by the Cardinals. Hitters are often put into a position to succeed.
]]>By: cohnjusackhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586939
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:21:43 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586939

Actually, it is simple Geometry.

Nope, I got nothin’.

]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586874
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:34:40 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586874Actually, it is simple Geometry.
]]>By: Jeremy Thttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586868
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:32:01 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586868If that’s the case, then it will certainly be interesting to see if they continue the trend next season. The stats seem to suggest nobody’s “solved” it like you’re suggesting in the past, but I suppose it’s always possible that they’ve figured out something new.
]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586863
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:29:23 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586863You are conflating two different ideas. “Clutch” deserves criticism, but a style that is obviously more conducive to success with RISP, shouldn’t be lumped with something that isn’t measurable.
]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586852
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:23:58 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586852It isn’t just luck.
]]>By: cohnjusackhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586840
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:16:18 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586840Okay, want to make a comparision. Let’s use 2nd place on this list, the 2007 Detroit Tigers

The 07 to 08 Tigers are actually a bit different, but not in a bad way.

07 to 08 changes

1B: Sean Casey to Miguel Cabrera – Sure shouldn’t hurt!
SS: Carlos Guillen to Edgar Renteria – Guillen was better, but Renteria was actually better with RISP in 08 than Guillen in 07, so no downward movement here!
3B: Brandon Inge to Carlos Guillen: Brandon Inge couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, so this shouldn’t hurt.
LF: Craig Monroe to Marcus Thames: Monroe put up an abysmal 65 OPS+, so this isn’t worse

Those are the four changes among starters, none of which should have made them worse at hitting with RISP, in fact, they all should have helped greatly.

The 2007 Tigers hit .311 with runners in scoring position
The 2008 Tigers hit .268 with runners in scoring position

The facts, over and over again, show these types of “clutch” numbers to be unrepeatable blips. As much as I would love to believe the Cardinals cracked the mystery and are somehow hit like Stan Musial when a guy is on 2nd base, it’s almost certainly a case of being extremely lucky.

But rejoice! The luck was on our side and it resulted in 97 wins and potential post-season bliss! Just don’t bank on them repeating it next year.

]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586836
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:13:42 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586836Freese’s numbers are way down, and for some unknown reason he has gone away from the approach that was so successful for him for so long.
]]>By: spudchukarhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586819
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 17:03:27 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586819Because their approach is more effective when there are runners in scoring position.

St. Louis’ HR numbers are also way down in 2013, supporting the idea that they have altered their approach, somewhat.

Certainly, some of the success is random, psychological, contagious, and good fortune. But that does not explain the extreme success.

Mostly, they have perfected an approach that is magnified when runners are in scoring position.

]]>By: savior72http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586804
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:51:38 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586804Work the count, make the pitcher adjust and force him to throw strikes. Seems like a simple idea, cards have done it great all year.
]]>By: cohnjusackhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586802
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:51:23 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586802You can find that data in Baseball Reference’s team splits.

The Cardinals hit .305 with 2 out, RISP.

]]>By: cohnjusackhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586799
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:47:21 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586799How good were the Cardinals at scoring runs? They scored 10.9% more runs than the 2nd place Rockies and 20.6 runs more than the league average

The last team that was not pre-humidor Colorado to lead the league by that large a margin? The 1976 Cincinatti Reds (lead by 11.3%. Yep, the 2013 Cardinals outscored the rest of the league at a rate not seen since the Big Red Machine.

]]>By: paperlionshttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586784
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:33:34 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586784I will not laugh at any of your beliefs….what you can’t confuse is clutch hits, which do exist by definition with the ability to perform better in the clutch, which does not exist.

As pointed out in the article, essentially the exact same lineup hit .264 with RISP last year.

]]>By: paperlionshttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586778
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:31:16 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586778…and why not use that approach all the time? Are bases empty situations just not important enough to focus or use whatever approach leads to .330 hitting with RISP?

I am very grateful that the Cardinals were able to hit so well in those situations all year, but there is a 0% chance they repeat that performance next year.

]]>By: blues1988http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586761
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:22:06 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586761yep i agree, that has been amazing. pretty sure all 4 runs scored by the b squad yesterday was 2 outs and risp.
]]>By: RickyBhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586745
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:14:14 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586745You’re absolutely right in the fact that the Cardinals have done it better than anyone else this year, and it’s not even close. However, the statistic is not predictive. You cannot expect them to continue that level of hitting with RISP throughout the playoffs. They may equal or better it, but it is much more likely, statistically speaking, that they won’t.
]]>By: Jeremy Thttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586733
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:07:37 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586733Perhaps. But if that’s the case, what changed since last year?
]]>By: stlouis1baseballhttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586729
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 16:06:08 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586729I agree Perry. They certainly do a great job adjusting their approach to the situation at hand.
Be it with guys on 2nd or 3rd…or hitting with 2 strikes.
]]>By: perryt200http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586713
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 15:53:07 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586713As an avid Cards fan, what I would really like to see compared is RISP with 2 outs. I think that would blow peoples minds.
]]>By: jm91rshttp://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/30/risp-cardinals-shattered-the-all-time-clutch-hitting-record/comment-page-1/#comment-586700
Mon, 30 Sep 2013 15:43:26 +0000http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/?p=497945#comment-586700Or perhaps they are damn good ball players and have the right approach when there’s a man in scoring position?
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