Creativity needed for Capers, Packers pass rush

With pass-rushing options dwindling by the week, and his blitzes not producing results, Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers may need to recapture a mantra that head coach Mike McCarthy put a premium on several offseasons ago.

In the summer before the 2010 season, McCarthy installed signs in the office of each coordinator that read, &ldquo;Less volume, more creativity.&rdquo; The motivation was more about speeding up the learning curve of Capers&rsquo; defense back then, but it once again applies as the Packers approach an important stretch of games in which a number of key pass rushers likely won&rsquo;t be available.

McCarthy said Monday that outside linebacker Clay Matthews, the team&rsquo;s leader in sacks with nine, could miss a &ldquo;couple of weeks&rdquo; with a hamstring injury, and first-round pick Nick Perry was placed on season-ending injured reserve after undergoing surgery on his wrist Tuesday.

The possibility exists that Capers could face the Detroit Lions on Nov. 18 without two of his most important pass rushers. Through nine weeks, the Lions are the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL at 307.3 yards a game. After Detroit, a trip to New York to take on the Giants and their No. 9 passing offense looms large.

If Matthews doesn&rsquo;t play in Week 11 or 12, Capers will have to lean on starter Erik Walden, undrafted rookie Dezman Moses and recently activated Frank Zombo at outside linebacker to generate most of his pressure. There is depth, but the drop off is significant.

&ldquo;Let&rsquo;s just hope he heals quick,&rdquo; Capers said Monday. &quot;Obviously, you'd like to have Clay out there whenever you can have him out there.&rdquo;

Excuse the hyperbole, but not having Matthews available is the defensive equivalent of McCarthy&rsquo;s offense losing Aaron Rodgers. His production, especially in the pass rush, is invaluable to Capers&rsquo; unit.

According to Pro Football Focus, Matthews has provided 42 of the Packers&rsquo; 131 total quarterback disruptions (sacks, hits, hurries) this season, or nearly a third of the defense&rsquo;s pressure. Walden is second on the team with 16, and no other player has more than 10. The next highest sack total comes from defensive end C.J. Wilson, who has 2.5.

Without his top pass rusher, Capers&rsquo; play calling would have to get much more creative and unpredictable to compensate. His blitzing efforts have come up woefully short recently.

According to PFF&rsquo;s numbers, the Packers defense has been beaten through the air repeatedly over the last two weeks in part because pressure has rarely accompanied Capers&rsquo; blitz calls. The numbers tell the story.

Capers blitzed 12 times Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals: Seven times with Brad Jones, four with A.J. Hawk and once with rookie Jerron McMillian. Those calls resulted in zero pressures, as Cardinals quarterback John Skelton completed eight of 12 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown (130.6 passer rating) against the blitz.

The Packers actually put pressure on Skelton 13 of the 36 times when Capers didn&rsquo;t bring an extra man. His passer rating when not blitzed plummeted to 48.2.

A week earlier, Capers blitzed Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert 21 times. Three pressures came from the calls, including a sack each from Jones and Morgan Burnett. But much like Skelton, Gabbert completed 14 of 19 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown against the blitz for a passer rating of 112.4.

Again, when Capers didn&rsquo;t blitz, Gabbert had a passer rating of just 60.4.

In all, Capers has brought more than four defenders on 33 drop backs the past two weeks, but just three pressures, 273 passing yards and two touchdowns have come from the effort.

A lack of creativity, not volume, is the root of the problem.

The last two weeks, Capers has possibly been too predictable. The vast majority of his pressure calls have either been cross or delayed blitzes inside&mdash;staples of Capers&rsquo; blitz package&mdash;with Hawk and Jones. Each time it was called Sunday, however, the cross blitz was stonewalled by the interior of the Cardinals much-maligned offensive line without much effort.

Very few rushes have come from the secondary or featured overloads off the edges.

A young secondary missing Charles Woodson&mdash;the team&rsquo;s best blitzer among the defensive backs&mdash;is likely one reason why Capers has been reluctant to bring pressure from the edges with his still-green defensive backfield.

Cornerback Casey Hayward is inexperienced coming from Woodson&rsquo;s old slot position, and blitzes from Hayward (16 pass rushes in 2012) McMillian (14), Sam Shields (seven), M.D. Jennings (nine) and Jarrett Bush (seven)&mdash;53 in all&mdash;have produced just three total pressures this season.

In one instance where Capers did bring an overload blitz, however, Burnett went untouched off the right side of the Jaguars&rsquo; offensive line for an easy sack and strip of Gabbert. But that kind of blitz and result has been rare for Capers recently.

Considering his trump card may be lacking from the deck in the coming weeks, Capers will certainly need to get more creative to generate pressure. Even with Matthews, volume blitzing simply hasn&rsquo;t been the key for Capers in unlocking offenses.

If the Packers can&rsquo;t manufacture different ways of pressure against the likes of the Lions and Giants after the bye, Capers&rsquo; pass defense might have a couple of long afternoons at the office.

As was the case in 2010, creativity over volume might again be to answer to Capers&rsquo; looming problem.

According to PFFs numbers, the Packers defense has been beaten through the air repeatedly over the last two weeks in part because pressure has rarely accompanied Capers blitz calls. The numbers tell the story.

Capers blitzed 12 times Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals: Seven times with Brad Jones, four with A.J. Hawk and once with rookie Jerron McMillian.

Those calls resulted in zero pressures, as Cardinals quarterback John Skelton completed eight of 12 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown (130.6 passer rating) against the blitz.

The Packers actually put pressure on Skelton 13 of the 36 times when Capers didn,t bring an extra man. His passer rating when not blitzed plummeted to 48.2.

A week earlier, Capers blitzed Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert 21 times. Three pressures came from the calls, including a sack each from Jones and Morgan Burnett.

But much like Skelton, Gabbert completed 14 of 19 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown against the blitz for a passer rating of 112.4.

Again, when Capers didn't blitz, Gabbert had a passer rating of just 60.4.

As longtimefan highlighted, blitzing can backfire. That should come as no surprise to Packers fans who have watched Aaron Rodgers burn the blitz time after time. But when the Packers' D struggles to get pressure, many fans yell for the blitz in spite of what the stats above suggest. We all know there's a symbiotic relationship between pressure and coverage but it's easier to see a blitzer get home than to see how the coverage package forced an incompletion, sack or QB hit.

The author of the linked article argues that Capers has to get more creative because his blitzing hasn't worked and because he'll now be without the services of Matthews, Perry, and Woodson. (While IMO Walden has been more important to pressuring the QB than Perry, Woodson's savvy and blitzing ability has been missed.) He cites Pro Football Focus to emphasize how important Matthews is:

According to Pro Football Focus, Matthews has provided 42 of the Packers’ 131 total quarterback disruptions (sacks, hits, hurries) this season, or nearly a third of the defense’s pressure. Walden is second on the team with 16, and no other player has more than 10. The next highest sack total comes from defensive end C.J. Wilson, who has 2.5.

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That is simply astounding - Clay Matthews is responsible for about 32% of the sacks, hits, and hurries through nine games of this season! Since Matthews won't be in the lineup against a very potent Lions' passing offense, the author argues Capers' blitzing packages have to be more creative.

But is that the lesson of those stats? Even with Clay rushing the vast majority of plays so far this season and attracting the attention his play deserves, those blitzes didn't work as well as playing coverage the past two games. If blitzes don't work with Clay in the lineup, why would we believe they'd work with him in street clothes? To be sure, Capers will mix up whatever schemes he plans to use so I'm talking about emphasis here, not all one way or the other. Stafford is a better QB than either the Cards or Jags put on the field but I still wonder if doing their best to take Johnson away and mostly playing coverage would be more likely to force the undisciplined Lions into making mistakes then sending blitzers who haven't been successful with the "distraction" Matthews has provided. Beyond that, how creative can a blitzing scheme be? Isn't the talent (or lack thereof) of the blitzer more important? And if your D covers better than it blitzes, doesn't it make more sense to rely upon your strength?

I was happy to hear Shields is back for Sunday's game - his presence certainly helps the coverage schemes. And the O will likely have to score a lot of points so Nelson's return is crucial and Kuhn's should help the running game, particularly short-yardage. Like many games it could come down to winning the turnover battle and my point here is sending a ton of blitzes may not be the way to accomplish that.

Capers combines blitzes with soft zones...these young QBs may not know much, but when they see those DBs coming it's an easy check down underneath. You're not going to get pressures when QBs read straight to check down in 1.5 seconds.

I would also suggest that Mr. Raji gets a little fire under his butt. It's about time to step up and earn that new contract.

The Lions are primarily a passing team especially without Best. They do not have a FB on their roster and Stafford likes to pull the trigger early. We'll have to try to get there with Walden or Zombo. We could try a safety or a corner blitz but with Megatron and the rest of the Lions who run so many crossing routes we'd probably get shredded. Capers will have to try to come from different directions with 1 or 2 LBs and hope we can catch a few holding penalties. If we can force Stafford to throw too soon we may see a deflection and a pick or two like last Thanksgiving.