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Iran-Pakistan puzzle - Kashif Hussain - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268156-Iran-Pakistan-puzzle-Kashif-Hussain-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:24:38 GMTA few days ago, while the US and Israel were lobbying in Warsaw trying to convince the Europeans to join them in their harshanti-Iran drive, a bomb...A few days ago, while the US and Israel were lobbying in Warsaw trying to convince the Europeans to join them in their harshanti-Iran drive, a bomb blast in Zahedan Left around 27 Revolutionary guards dead. The event was coincidental with another unfortunate event of the same nature in Kashmir. In the aftermaths of the negatively developing situation, the Indian Foreign Minister took a stopover in Tehran and both the nations pointed their fingers at Pakistan. Ironically, Pakistan has been struggling to combat terrorism at home. In return for the sacrifices the country has made in the form of thousands of lives and billions of dollars, the country has suppressed a number of terrorist organisations at home and also managed to complete fencing a major chunk of the Durand Line and mainstreaming Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The defectors from the proscribed terrorist organisations after experiencing a befitting defeat at the hands of Pakistani security forces have taken refuge in Afghanistan and most of them have submitted their allegiance to Daesh’s affiliate (Islamic State Khorasan Province). However, it is still possible that a foreign power might exploit the angry few still resisting the writ of governmentfor their vested interests. Nonetheless, Pakistan’s efforts in reducing any kind of dependence on Afghanistan for the sake of curbing extremism at home is undeniable; and assisting any proscribed organisations to stage attacks abroad is unthinkable due to the country’s close scrutiny through international regimes like FATF. Additionally, the country has been facing some serious economic challenges, as a result of the US’ cancellation of aid and poor economic planning. For this reason, Islamabad rushed to its rich allies to help bolster foreign cash reserves.

If Tehran and Islamabad act prudently, they can find ways, in collaboration with Russia and China, to reduce Kashmiri and Palestinian grievances and calm Afghanistan. Otherwise, it would be hard to ensure peace in their restive provinces along the border

Under the circumstances, Rouhani Administration becoming a victim of Indian propaganda and issuing anti-peace statements is unprecedented. Not only has the senior Iranian civil and military leadership threatened Pakistan of consequences but it has also sided with India to develop the Afghan scenario. Tehran must refrain from becoming a pawn in New-Delhi’s hands for the sake of its converging interests with Pakistan and to maintain the status-quo in Sistan and Balochistan. It is also crucial for both Pakistan and Iran to address and deal with each other to avoid any kind of previous post-Soviet withdrawal scenario when the US plans to draw down materialise; as well as to counter any threat emanating from the volatile Afghanistan to disrupt the status-quo of the said provinces. Pakistan must run an extra mile to address Iranian grievances regarding the security threats posed by terrorist organisations. Interestingly, Pakistan stands against the US-Israeli stance on JCPOA and Jerusalem. The country also abhors any such idea designed and promoted in Warsaw. Pakistan can also be instrumental in the future to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran. On the other hand, Iran has been one of the staunch supporters of right of self-determination of Kashmiris by highlighting the issue at the UN and through its national media. Different sets of events have brought to the fore a make or break situation. If Tehran and Islamabad act prudently, they can find ways, in collaboration with Russia and China, to reduce Kashmiri and Palestinian grievances and calm Afghanistan. Otherwise, it would be hard to ensure peace in their restive provinces along the border.

The author has completed his M.Phil in International Relations from Quaid i Azam University Islamabad

Published in Daily Times, February 21st 2019.
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268156-Iran-Pakistan-puzzle-Kashif-Hussain-21-February-2019General Dhillon’s threat to Kashmiri mothers - Dr Syed Nazir Gilani - 21 Feb 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268155-General-Dhillon’s-threat-to-Kashmiri-mothers-Dr-Syed-Nazir-Gilani-21-Feb-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:24:08 GMTPakistan is a nuclear state. It has cancelled out the threat of India’s size, military might and nuclear reach once for all. Unless Indian leaders...Pakistan is a nuclear state. It has cancelled out the threat of India’s size, military might and nuclear reach once for all. Unless Indian leaders decide to consign their cities and people to history books, there will be no war. The Indian Government is engaged in a war with the people of Indian administered Valley for the last 27 years. During these years these forces have killed a generation of Muslims who lived in Kashmir valley.

A UN report has estimated that there are 500,000 to 700,000 Indian soldiers in the Valley. The number is aided and assisted by special laws and now a ‘strong state doctrine’ has been put in place to use brute force and kill as many Kashmiris as possible. United Kingdom Expert on the Sub Commission of Human Rights in Geneva moved a resolution against violation of human rights in Indian administered Kashmir E/CN.4/Sub.2/1997/L.21 on 15 August 1997, and reminded the world that United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland had left in the sub-continent traditions of, imperialism towards people and their territories, harsh military suppression of dissent combined with sweeping special emergency powers, reactionary penal laws, double standards in human rights and the unwillingness and a degree of inability to undertake real reforms and exploitation.

All this is a manifestation of the arrogance with which the GOC 15 Corps, Lt Gen KJS Dhillon, threatened Kashmiri women on Tuesday 19 February 2019 saying, “Tell your sons to surrender or they will be killed”. It is an example of an imperialistic threat and a case of harsh military suppression of dissent. The Valley is not an Indian colony and Kashmiri mothers are not colonised people. General Dhillon is not the British colonial General Dyer that he would be allowed to stage a Jallianwala Bagh like massacre. Kashmir is not the Amritsar of April 1919. We live in 2019.

However, Indian politics and military have caught the communal virus and the target to kill are Kashmiri Muslims, in particular the youth. The bacchanalian behaviour of General Dhillon could manifest itself in a tragedy. Therefore, it is time to examine the merits of this threat and neutralise it.

A UN report has estimated that there are 500,000 to 700,000 Indian soldiers in the Valley. The number is aided and assisted by special laws and now a ‘strong state doctrine’ has been put in place to use brute force and kill as many Kashmiris as possible. United Kingdom Expert on the Sub Commission of Human Rights in Geneva moved a resolution against violation of human rights in Indian administered Kashmir E/CN.4/Sub.2/1997/L.21 on 15 August 1997

If the so called ‘mainstream politicians’ wish to serve their oath and their voters in the Valley, they need to move swiftly against General Dhillon and the institution of the Indian army stationed in the Valley. The National Conference has a principal role to play. Every local Government needs to know that the Indian army has been granted a temporary admission to perform four duties in Kashmir. This force is a supplement and a subordinate force. Therefore, if the State Government has the welfare of the people at heart, it could terminate the permission granted to Indian army or bring it under a stricter code of conduct.

United Nations allowed this contingent of the Indian army on the assurance of good behaviour. The other convincing argument was that the UN Commission would be around to supervise these forces. United Nations, however, decided to put in place three more restraints on the behaviour, number and location of these forces in its resolution of 21 April 1948.

We need to highlight that there is no UN Commission in Kashmir, we have UNMOGIP personnel. We have the Kashmiri Government except at this point Delhi rules and interferes in Kashmir directly through Presidential Rule. In fact, this army is subordinate to State administration and unless NC, PDP, PC, CMI and other political parties are ignorant or have sold their soul to Lucifer, Indian soldiers can’t move against their writ.

General Dhillon’s threat has no merit. It constitutes a disobedience and warrants a serious action against him. The remedy to curtail the authority of these forces lies with the ‘mainstream’ political parties or a serious challenge could be made in a court of law. General Dhillon could be carefully packed by the State Government back to Delhi unless he desires to meet the fate of General Dyer – a cerebral haemorrhage and arteriosclerosis.

The Government of Azad Kashmir and the Government of Pakistan could alert the United Nations of this new situation and urge them to take immediate measures on the basis of a proposal made by Pakistan to send UN Forces to Kashmir. The proposal to induct UN force in Kashmir was debated at the 769th Meeting of the Security Council, held on 15 February 1957. The meeting was chaired by Sweden and attended by the representatives of Australia, China, Colombia, Cuba, France, Iraq, Philippines, Sweden, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and United States of America. A draft resolution for demilitarization was sponsored by Australia, Cuba, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and United States of America.

Sweden as Chairman of the security Council has pointed out that “The other course is this: if it should be found that the question cannot at the present time be solved through negotiations, it might be useful to have certain underlying problems of a legal character progressively clarified in order to create better conditions for an agreement. Para 40 – Now that nine years have elapsed without any progress being in sight for an agreement between the parties, we would have thought that the time had come to try the alternative. In the opinion of my Government, this could then best be done by referring to some of the legal aspects of the matter to the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion…We are therefore fully prepared to accept the ideal behind the draft resolution which is before the Council”.

After the June 2018, UN report describing Kashmir as one of the most militarised zones in the world, surfacing of the ‘Strong State Doctrine’ to use brute force to kill as many Kashmiris as possible, the threat issued by General Dhillon to Kashmiri mothers and the helplessness of mainstream political parties or their acquiescence to Delhi’s policy, it is important that we move to UN Security Council or the ICJ on the status of Indian army in the Valley.

The writer is the President of JKCHR – NGO in Special Consultative Status with the United Nations. He is on UN Register as an Expert in Peace Keeping, Humanitarian Operations and Election Monitoring Missions. He has represented unrepresented peoples and nations at the Vienna UN World Conference on the Human Rights.

Published in Daily Times, February 21st 2019.
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268155-General-Dhillon’s-threat-to-Kashmiri-mothers-Dr-Syed-Nazir-Gilani-21-Feb-2019Trending discrimination in Pakistan - Busharat Elahi Jamil - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268154-Trending-discrimination-in-Pakistan-Busharat-Elahi-Jamil-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:23:32 GMTEvery community will be treated as citizens of Pakistan with equal rights and privileges and obligations and that the minorities will be safeguarded...Every community will be treated as citizens of Pakistan with equal rights and privileges and obligations and that the minorities will be safeguarded and protected. (Quaid-i-Azam, March 22, 1948).

British colonial India was divided on the basis of Muslim and non-Muslim majority areas in August 1947 but not in the name of a particular religion. Muslim League took recognition for the making of Pakistan under the vision of a separate identity. In fact Pakistan’s ideology was ‘Muslim’ not ‘Islam’. So by birth Pakistan is not an Islamic State but a Muslim State. Later on March 23, 1956, after 9 years it was titled as the ‘Islamic Republic of Pakistan’.

Awkwardly, the Objective Resolution of 1949, and the first Constitution of Pakistan in 1956, truly divided the Pakistanis into Muslims and non-Muslims which fortified the notion of individualism in the Country. While before, on December 28, 1947 Mr. Jinnah said that “… we must sink individualism and petty jealousies and make up our minds to serve the people with honesty and faithfulness. We are passing through a period of fear, danger and menace. We must have faith, unity and discipline”. But these words proved to be nothing but a decorating for books, speeches and memories.

Currently, we are not Pakistanis; we are Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Punjabis, Sindhis, Balochs and Pashtuns etc. Furthermore; 96 percent Muslim majority of Pakistan is divided in 73 sects, sufficient to incite sectarianism and extremism. Religious leaders, politicians and so-called intellectuals played their exceptional part to split the Pakistani society.

Unfortunately, in all three constitutions we are labelled as the 4 percent non-Muslim Pakistanis the ‘minorities’ being 2.11 percent Hindus, 1.60 percent Christians and 0.29 percent others. Non-Muslims and the tiny communities have a detestable status and exploitation in an independent country in the very name of ‘Islam’ which is destructive for the integration. The column to declare one’s religion in application forms and other government documents, religious quota system, reserve seats and biased electoral process are hurdles in the way of progress for non-Muslims in Pakistan. In fact non-Muslims are primarily Pakistanis and religion is their personal matter.

27 Ahmadiyya mosques have been demolished, 34 sealed by authorities, 22 fired or damaged and 17 forcibly occupied. These discriminations are open violation of the articles 2, 3 and 5 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights 1948 signed by Pakistan

The believers of Jesus, Guru, Ram and others are the responsibilities of the followers of Muhammad (SAW) in Pakistan, so Non-Muslims cannot be second class citizens of a Muslim State. Regrettably, small communities and the non-Muslims practically cannot preach and practise their religious beliefs, while articles 20 and 22 of the Constitution 1973 safeguard that right. However, non-Muslims dare not to invoke the article to save further persecution, violent attacks and socio-political discrimination. The issues of Gurdwaras lands (oqaf), Katas Raj temple, Ahmadiyya worship places, Joseph colony Lahore, Hazara community, etc. are the worst examples. The extremist religious strata use the religion card behind targeted issues. Hindu community of Sindh is gradually migrating to India because of extensive social and religious humiliation and exploitation which is insults the foundation of the ‘Islamic Republic’.

From 1984, to November 2018, 265 Ahmadis have been killed, 368 assaulted, 765 have been booked for displaying Kalima, 38 booked for calling Azan, 447 Ahmadis booked for posing as Muslims, 161 booked for using Islamic epithets and 816 for preaching. Moreover, 27 Ahmadiyya mosques have been demolished, 34 sealed by authorities, 22 fired or damaged and 17 forcibly occupied. These discriminations are open violation of the articles 2, 3 and 5 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights 1948 signed by Pakistan.

Almost every Pakistani habitually observes social matters through eyes of religious bias. The majority stronghold and the legislative support equip the majority member to overcome non-Muslims. The blasphemy laws, anti-Ahmadiyya laws by Zia regime support religious extremists and the illiterate masses to push the respective communities in otiose. This practise continuously gives the non-Muslims a sense of insecurity, fear and uncertainty. In this situation they cannot play a vital or productive role in the prosperity of Pakistan.

Moreover, Govt. schools’ syllabuses are extremely injurious to positive and neutral growth of the common primary and high school students. The non-Muslim students suffer discrimination, helplessness and hate in their classrooms by their classmates and teachers. Many incidents have been reported in this regard. In some cases, they are forced to study Islamic studies rather alternate subjects like ethics.

Muslim majority and non-Muslim communities have equal right on the privileges provided by the country. Non-Muslims have ever remained faithful and have served to their best ability, but in the Constitution of 1973, no non-Muslim can be the Head of the Govt. or Head of the State. They are Pakistanis and every Pakistani has the social and political right to serve their country in elite positions, this reflects the undermining of the capabilities and faithfulness of the non-Muslim communities which is against the norms of modern democracy. Justice Alvin Robert Cornelius, Justice Bhagwan Das, Captain Cecil Chaudhry, etc. had the same potential and the ability to serve and lead the nation as well as a Muslim Pakistani. Why then are non-Muslims and eligible personalities barred from serving as PM or the President of Pakistan?

In 1992, when extremist Hindus demolished the Babri Mosque at Ayodhya, in response the Muslims of Pakistan ruined many Hindu temples in several parts of Pakistan. Because of the Holy Prophet’s (SAW) regretful sketches and controversies in the West, the Christian community in Pakistan faced charges and hate. Even the Muslims sects of the country are not ready to say prayers behind each other but curiously all Muslim sects are willing collectively to say their prayers under one Imam during Haj. Unfortunately the majority community is not willing to accept the dominance of any other sect in Pakistan, which is the major cause of sectarian violence. While Quaid-i-Azam clarified that “Islam is not only a set of rituals, traditions and spiritual doctrines. Islam is also a code for every Muslim which regulates his life and his conduct in even politics and economics and the like. It is based on the highest principles of honour, integrity, fairly and justice for all…” (January 25, 1948). This is strange that in our own homeland we are divided in Shia Sunni or Wahabi sects and because of extremist ideologies. But outside the country on different occasions we forget and ignore all differences. ‘Islamic Republic of Pakistan’ is the world’s second largest Muslim populated State after Indonesia but Islam and other religions are suffering because of radicalization and the state’s intervention in religion and the citizens’ beliefs in Pakistan.

Pakistan is no doubt a Muslim State but not an Islamic State. The theory of official religion is not practical in modern democracies. States represent the nation but not a particular religion because religion belongs to individuals. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, the followers of Hazrat Muhammad (SAW), Guru, Jesus and Ram etc. are concerned with their prior issues and still are in search of a homeland and a peaceful nation.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to Islamabad over Feb 17-18 was as grand as any palace ball. It had all the trappings — the state banquet, the regal investiture, the monarchical horse-drawn carriage procession. Our Prime Minister Imran Khan could not have done more to demonstrate his regard for his dynamic guest than to drive him personally to and from the airport. And Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman could not have endeared himself more to his host than by responding instantly to his request to repatriate 2,107 Pakistani prisoners languishing in Saudi jails. It was an act of mercy worthy of an absolute ruler.

There is a palpable chemistry between the Saudi leader and our prime minister. They enjoy a personal rapport that even artful diplomacy cannot manufacture. It telescopes age. Mohammad bin Salman, at 33, is half Imran Khan’s age. Yet, the premature sagacity of one and the deceptive youth of the other came together on this visit in an unexpected crescendo.

In pictures: Pakistan pulls out all the stops for Saudi crown prince

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

Some attribute this to their need for mutual certification. The crown prince, after the Khashoggi stigma and the chilly G20 summit in November 2018, needed affirmation that he still has a place on the international stage. He chose the eastern hemisphere — Pakistan, India and China — for his reappearance.

Prime Minister Khan wants Saudi Arabia to jump-start Pakistan’s economy. He also needed the Saudi visit to sever publicly the umbilical connection between the House of Saud and the House of Sharif. Both those ends were achieved. The crown prince may, in his private one-to-one meeting with the prime minister, have hinted at mercy for the Sharifs. After all, hadn’t he just released 2,107 Pakistani convicts?

The MBS visit euphoria needs to be put into perspective.

The euphoria generated by this visit, however, needs to be put into perspective. The seven MoUs signed on Feb 17 with ministerial gravity in Islamabad covered diverse fields: technical cooperation in standardisation sector, enhancement of cooperation in sports and youth affairs, the import of Saudi goods, and provision of funds for development projects by the Saudi government. But where was the beef?

It lay sandwiched in the MoU for setting up an oil refinery and enhancing cooperation in the field of minerals. This is the first step towards the establishment of “a $10 billion oil refinery, a $1bn petrochemical com*plex, and installation of two [RLNG] plants with an estimated cost of $4bn and $2bn investment in the mineral development sector”.

An MoU is essentially a diplomatic hologram; it is not a binding offer of marriage. MoUs are ephemeral until they are solidified into something actionable, something tangible. It will take at least seven to 10 years to build a refinery, and if at Gwadar, perhaps even longer, because it will involve the Chinese who have a lease on the port until 2059. The crown prince’s visit to Beijing will reveal China’s attitude towards Saudi Arabia’s designs on Gwadar.

During his stay in Islamabad, the Saudi foreign minister volunteered to act as a decompressant, to help lower the tension between India and Pakistan following the suicide attack in Pulwama (India-held Kashmir). He avoided any mention of the suicide attack on an Iranian convoy in which 27 Revolutionary Guards were killed.

The response of the Indians to the Saudi suggestion was ungracious. They proposed that, instead of flying directly from Islamabad to New Delhi, the Saudi crown prince and his enormous entourage should return to Riyadh, decontaminate and then reroute themselves to New Delhi. And what should the Saudi crown prince expect during his stopover in India? Five MoUs on investment, tourism, housing, and information and broadcasting. Dis*cussions on enhancing defence cooperation and pro*duction. And, ignoring the Pak-Saudi joint statement underlining “the need for avoiding politicisation of UN listing regime” [ie India’s efforts to have Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar listed as a terrorist by the UN], the Indians will try to press-gang the Saudi crown prince into endorsing a condemnation of Pakistan as the crucible of terrorism.

Imran Khan finds he has more enemies than his domestic political opponents who oscillate between NAB and the courts, between jail and hospitals. He is disappointed that his simplistic gestures of conciliation towards India are being snapped like matchsticks and used as firewood.

The next few months, especially until India’s general election in May, will be a critical test of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s leadership. In September 1965, as a 13-year-old, he wanted to defend his home in Zaman Park against Indian paratroopers. In March 2019, as prime minister of Pakistan, he might be called upon to do much more than that.

Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2019
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268153-20bn-glass-slipper-F-S-Aijazuddin-21-February-2019Fiscal blowout in the making Khurram Husain - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268152-Fiscal-blowout-in-the-making-Khurram-Husain-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:22:30 GMTTHE numbers are getting a little crazy now. Data released by the finance ministry on the state of revenues and expenditures for the first half of the...THE numbers are getting a little crazy now. Data released by the finance ministry on the state of revenues and expenditures for the first half of the fiscal year show that the budget deficit is spiralling on faster than ever.

Here is what the data shows. The deficit has grown by 29 per cent in the first six months of the fiscal year, a much faster rate of growth than in recent years. Revenue growth was identified by the State Bank as one of the prime drivers of the deficit in quarter one, when the pace of revenue collection grew by a paltry 7.5pc year on year. But in the second quarter revenue collection actually fell by 9.9pc, coming in at Rs2.33 trillion from Rs2.39tr last year. This is disturbing, to say the least.

Commenting on why revenues were slow in the first quarter, the State Bank attributed it to reduction in the rate of sales tax on major petroleum products and reduction in corporate and income tax rates announced in the budget by the outgoing government, as well as a sharp fall in development spending and an overall slowdown in the economy.

Since then, all these factors have been aggravated. The projected growth rate for the remainder of the fiscal year has been downgraded, the sales tax reduction on petroleum products has not been increased, development spending has been slashed further (it was down 42.5pc in the first quarter, and another 32.5pc in the second quarter). So it is hard to see where the driver for revenues in the remainder of the fiscal year is. It was supposed to be the ‘mini budget’ announced by the government earlier this year, but given they have only just begun debating that finance bill more than a month after it was tabled, and that it contains no significant revenue measures (only further tax breaks), it is hard to imagine how it will spur revenue growth till year end.

Compared to the first half period last year, this year we have what is known as a primary deficit.

On expenditures the fastest growing item was defence, followed closely by debt service. The latter grew by 13.9pc in quarter one, which jumped to 20.8pc by second quarter (all figures are year on year). Defence grew at 20.1pc in first quarter, and climbed to 23pc in second quarter. In the budget presented by the outgoing government last April, all expenditures were frozen except for defence which was hiked by 18pc. The actual spending on this head is coming in even higher, and the pace is accelerating from first quarter to second.

Know more: FBR recommends new taxes to bridge shortfall

This means compared to the first half period last year, this year we have what is known as a primary deficit. A quick (though simplified) way to calculate the primary deficit would be to take total expenditures, subtract debt service payments from it and subtract this number from total revenue collection. If the number you get is negative, the primary balance is in deficit, which means you are now borrowing to pay for interest on loans. Last year, the primary balance was negative (by about Rs35bn as per this calculation, which admittedly is a back-of-the-envelope way of going about it).

Take a look: Moved by the numbers

This year’s numbers give us a primary deficit of around Rs153bn in the first half of the fiscal year. In order to rectify this, the government has to immediately cut current expenditures outside of debt service by this amount, or raise taxes by an equivalent amount while arresting further increase in all current expenditures.

This will be a challenge for a couple of reasons, one being that going forward the government is rolling over domestic debt onto very high interest rates. On Wednesday a Pakistan Investment Bond (PIB) auction fetched a decent response from the market after a long time. But compare the yields and you’ll see what is happening. From earlier in 2018, the yields have risen from between 7pc and 8pc to between 12pc and 13pc today. This means as the rollovers continue, domestic debt service payments will rise even more, unless the government wants to continue printing money.

The other reason why bringing the primary balance under control will be difficult is because this government appears to be in no position to tell the military that defence spending needs to be restra*i*ned, especially not in the current environment.

This leaves revenue generation as the main source of stabilising the primary balance, particularly tax collection. But on that front the government seems more interested in pleasing the business community in the hopes that such acts of kindness will bring forth higher export earnings and propel growth in the immediate term. It is walking towards disappointment on both these expectations. The business community is very skilled at presenting its case, and equally skilled at explaining why its end of the bargain failed to materialise.

So far the picture that is shaping up does not look very good. The external sector has started seeing some improvement, but mostly because imports have fallen in significant measure due to a continuing fall in oil prices. Exports are not picking up as fast as they should considering the massive devaluations we have seen recently. This is an untenable situation, and should there be a revival in growth, as the government is eagerly hoping for, it will easily reverse this trend.

One ends up sounding like a broken record when commenting on the direction of the economy in this country. It would be lovely to have the opportunity to point to all the wonderful, positive work that is being done in many places. But that would be like the grin on a dog’s face, given the fact that our very own prime minister has sat with the managing director of the IMF recently and asked for financial assistance, and promised “deep structural reform” in return.

Countries whose prospects are brightening, that have cleared the storms of uncertainty, are usually not found on the doorstep of the IMF, unless they are on the way out.

Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2019
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268152-Fiscal-blowout-in-the-making-Khurram-Husain-21-February-2019Focus on torture I.A. Rehman - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268151-Focus-on-torture-I-A-Rehman-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:22:10 GMTTHE increasing incidence of torture in countries engaged in fighting terrorism has persuaded the World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT) to create...THE increasing incidence of torture in countries engaged in fighting terrorism has persuaded the World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT) to create a new Working Group on ‘Torture and Terrorism’. The deliberations of the group at its inaugural meeting in Tunis earlier this month were extremely relevant to Pakistan.

The conference tone was set by Mokhtar Trifi, OMCT vice president from Tunisia, when he said that anti-torture activists saw almost daily how the legitimate fight against violent extremism was subverted to justify torture. “While no one is above the law,” he said, “no one is below the threshold of the law either, whatever the crime one is accused of”.

The members of the group, who were on the front lines of the ‘war against terrorism’ in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America, complained of facing increased public acceptance of torture in their countries. The delegate from the Gulf region spoke for the group when he said: “The biggest travesty is that states abuse the fight against terrorism to target human rights defenders, the very people we need to support the fight against violent extremists.” One would like to hope that the group’s recommendations will receive due consideration by Islamabad.

There is no denying that torture is endemic in Pakistan. The constitutional guarantee against torture is limited to prohibition of torture for extracting evidence and even this provision is not respected. Most of the people charged with a criminal offence are tortured till they ‘confess’, even to crimes they have not committed. The police know of no nonviolent methods of investigation/ interrogation. Pakistan has also often being criticised for allowing cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and punishment for persons accused of not only criminal but also civil offences.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

Police in Pakistan know of no non-violent methods of investigation or interrogation.

Apart from torture during investigation of crimes, and torture as a punishment for jail offences, enforced disappearances are instances of extreme torture caused not only to the victims but also to their families. The National Accountability Bureau’s practice of arresting people before any FIR is registered and holding them in detention for months on end amounts to torture. Even the Supreme Court’s censure of violation of suspects’ dignity of person has had little effect on NAB.

Several cases of horrible torture inflicted on teenaged maidservants have been reported over the past few years and yet no effective law to eliminate domestic violence has been made. Corporal punishment meted out to schoolchildren was once described as part of Pakistani culture by some members of a Senate standing committee.

One significant matter of concern is the extended detention of suspects at special internment centres, safe houses and private premises that are not subject to the control of prison departments. In this regard, Pakistan has been urged to ratify the optional protocol to the Convention against Torture. The objective of the protocol is to establish a system of regular visits undertaken by national and international bodies to places where people are detained.

Pakistan ratified the Convention against Torture in 2009 and its initial report on compliance with it did not impress the UN Committee against Torture. The committee’s concluding observations made in May 2017 should be accepted as the country’s agenda for eliminating torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. Pakistan has been asked to:

— “Ensure that officials ... at the highest levels unambiguously reaffirm the absolute prohibition of torture and publicly condemn all practices of torture”, and issue “a clear warning that anyone committing such acts or otherwise complicit or participating in torture will be held personally responsible before the law...;

— “Take measures to ensure that all police officers ... are prohibited by law from engaging in torture, as under the 2002 Police Order applicable” in parts of the country;

— “Ensure that police officers who engage in torture are prosecuted and punished with penalties that are commensurate with the gravity of the offence of torture, as required by Article 4 of the Convention;

— “Train police officers and security forces on the absolute ban on torture, the provisions of the Convention, and forensic evidence-gathering techniques that will reduce their reliance on securing confessions as the basis for criminal investigations”...;

— “Take effective measures to ensure that persons who file complaints concerning conduct amounting to torture, witnesses to torture and their families are protected against harassment and intimidation; ...

— “Consider creating a mechanism independent of the police hierarchy with the capacity to receive complaints, investigate and address all allegations of torture; ...

— “Take all necessary measures to ensure that all allegations of torture or ill-treatment are promptly, thoroughly and impartially investigated by a fully independent civilian body, that perpetrators are duly prosecuted and, if found guilty, convicted with penalties that are commensurate with the grave nature of their crimes;

— “Amend the Actions in Aid of Civil Power Regulation and the amendment to the Army Act of 2015 to eliminate retrospective immunity...

— “End the ... use of paramilitary forces to carry out law enforcement tasks and ensure that complaints of torture ... are investigated” and the perpetrators prosecuted.

— “Repeal or amend the Anti-Terrorism Act and other relevant legislation to ensure that ... persons deprived of their liberty have access to legal safeguards against torture...”

— To make a law that defines torture and prescribes penalties for its perpetrators.

The government must also try to implement the recommendations relating to the elimination of torture made in the latest Universal Periodic Review.

Postscript: There has been a happy turn of events for Baba Jan, Pakistan’s most prominent prisoner of conscience and victim of torture. The calls by civil society activists for his removal from prison to a hospital for treatment of severe chest pain did reach the security forces and he was taken to the Military Hospital and the DHQ in Gilgit. He is now being treated for a stomach ailment. This is the time to end the baseless case against the hugely popular social and political activist, a case that has caused endless embarrassment to Gilgit-Baltistan’s political leaders.

Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2019
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268151-Focus-on-torture-I-A-Rehman-21-February-2019Hearts and minds Ghulam Qadir Khan - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268150-Hearts-and-minds-Ghulam-Qadir-Khan-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:21:53 GMTRECENTLY, Prime Minister Imran Khan launched a health insurance scheme for the people of the former tribal areas. Considering there aren’t any good...RECENTLY, Prime Minister Imran Khan launched a health insurance scheme for the people of the former tribal areas. Considering there aren’t any good hospitals in these areas, and the doctors, instead of treating patients, ask them to go to Bannu or Peshawar for treatment, the gesture was poignant.

No political party or leader after Z.A. Bhutto had given any importance to Fata. Imran Khan is the first prime minister to give so much attention to the tribal areas. His commitment can be judged from the fact that he formed a task force for former Fata immediately after coming to power; he held numerous meetings with stakeholders and visited Miramshah. For the first time, the tribal people feel they are being treated at par with people in other areas.

The year 2018 will be remembered by the people of the tribal areas as the year of change, the year the Constitution gave them equal rights. No government has given such a share to KP in the federal government. Imran Khan somehow strikes a chord with the people of KP.

But one is disappointed that the prime minister’s commitment is not translated into benefits for the tribal people. All his efforts go to waste when those implementing the recommendations of the Directorate of Transition and Reforms or the task force on Fata are unable or unwilling to do the job. It’s no secret that the deputy commissioners were instigating the maliks to protest against the constitutional amendments for a merger and demanding a separate province instead. They instigated the people to agitate against an independent police and to recommend levies under the DC’s command. Meetings of the DCs were held to revive the Frontier Crimes Regulation in some form and retain the old jirga system.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

Tribal people must be embraced as part of the Pakistani family.

The reforms didn’t come easily. Great efforts were made to compel the government to bring them about. Now that the federal government has done its job and amended the Constitution as per the aspirations of the people of former Fata, it is unfair that the provincial government should drag its feet on implementing the reforms. In fact, instead of conspiring to undo the reforms the provincial government should be demanding the promised amount of Rs100 billion for the tribal districts from the federation. This can only happen if the provincial government can show expenditures from the already allocated amount.

One hopes that all disputes are being resolved, including the one leading to the exit of the IG Police and chief secretary, KP. Rumours of a tussle between the chief minister and governor seem to have died down since. On Feb 9, KP approved the establishment of session courts in the tribal districts, sanctioning some 100 positions. A cabinet meeting in Landi Kotal and ministers’ visits to the tribal districts are cosmetic steps but in the right direction.

Erstwhile Fata’s social indicators are the worst in the country. Around 70 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line. Literacy is less than 30pc. For females, it is less than 10pc. Without education, they don’t qualify for decent jobs. Pakistan is expecting huge foreign investments but without education, the tribal youth will miss the opportunity coming their way. In order to enable them to compete for jobs other than those of chowkidars and drivers, education and training needs to be planned. Established organisations with expertise in education can and should be engaged for the job.

In keeping with the prime minister’s desire for rapid development in the tribal districts, the provincial government should move fast. As initially planned, a senior grade-22 officer needs to be appointed as chief executive, Tribal Areas Development, reporting directly to the chief minister and looking after all development activities in the tribal districts. The

Fata Development Authority offices and resources can be used for the purpose.

The Temporary Displaced Persons Secretariat in Islamabad needs to be strengthened and moved to Peshawar, and report directly to the chief minister. Relief and rehabilitation activities are inept and in need of oversight. The decision to open the Torkham border crossing 24/7 should be extended to Ghulam Khan and possibly Chaman crossings, and movement across the border facilitated. The unannounced closure of crossings for political reasons has made businesses nervous; they need to be assured the borders will not be closed unannounced.

People of the tribal areas should not be made to suffer any more on account of inefficiency or incompetence. They need to be warmly embraced and given the assurance that they are an important part of the Pakistani family. Their grievances have yet to be resolved but the concern that the prime minister has shown towards them is one way of winning hearts and minds.

Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2019
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268150-Hearts-and-minds-Ghulam-Qadir-Khan-21-February-2019A deal for New Yorkers - Negin Owliaei - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268149-A-deal-for-New-Yorkers-Negin-Owliaei-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:20:44 GMTAmazon offered New Yorkers the best possible Valentine’s Day gift – a breakup. The union-busting, deportation-aiding company announced it wouldn’t go...Amazon offered New Yorkers the best possible Valentine’s Day gift – a breakup. The union-busting, deportation-aiding company announced it wouldn’t go forward with plans to build a new headquarters in Queens, financed in part by tax breaks and capital grants, thanks to the sustained organizing efforts from New York grassroots groups.

The announcement was welcome news to the coalition of organizers who demanded the city invest in its communities instead of trying to woo the richest man in the world. The coalition was made up of local community organizations, including groups like New York Communities for Change and Queens Neighborhoods United, tenants unions, immigrant groups like Desis Rising Up and Moving and Make the Road NY, and more.

They sprang into action soon after Amazon announced it would build two new home bases in New York and Virginia. “We won by standing firm with our stance on no concessions and united with other organizations and groups across the city with this message”, Shrima Pandey, an organizer with Queens Neighborhoods United, told Inequality.org in an email. “We made sure that our electeds knew we were not looking to make deals because we know you can’t make a deal with the devil.”

“We also won by rallying our people, by making sure everyone was informed of the disastrous impacts that HQ2 could have had in our borough and our city,” Pandey said. “We won by being committed to this campaign – we took early morning calls, and day-long meetings, and hit the streets in the bitter cold even though QNU is an all-volunteer group and our members bear many other responsibilities”.

The reaction to the Amazon deal was immediate as questions popped up over the incentives package proposed by New York officials. Why offer hefty tax subsidies when the city is failing to address record-high homelessness? Why offer to “assist in securing access to a helipad” (a real thing promised by the city to Amazon) while the public transit system was melting down? And why offer all these perks and incentives under a shroud of secrecy, without community input?

Supporters said the subsidies would only kick in if Amazon created the requisite 25,000 jobs. But academics say there’s plenty of reason for skepticism – once incentive agreements like this are signed, there’s often little transparency or accountability after the fact to ensure the companies comply with their end of the deal. Without explicit promises to hire unemployed New Yorkers, many worried that any jobs created would go to newcomers, who could potentially drive up rents and displace long-term residents of Queens’ diverse communities.

As details of the incentives agreement came out, New Yorkers heard from Seattleites about the mass gentrification spurred by Amazon. Seattle and King County declared a state of emergency over the city’s homelessness crisis. Meanwhile, Amazon lobbied hard to repeal a head tax on the city’s richest businesses to deal with that very crisis just weeks after it had passed. The day before Amazon announced its pullout from the deal, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reported that Amazon paid nothing in federal income taxes for the second year in a row. It was clear what kind of neighbor Amazon would be.

Arrogance from Amazon didn’t help either. “Here is a company that has concentrated so much power that they think they can dictate to states and cities what they can tell their people, how much money of theirs they want take to grace us with their presence, and without any consideration for the communities that their presence would affect”, State Senator Michael Gianaris said at a press conference after the deal was revoked.

Gianaris was one of several lawmakers put off by an Amazon representative refusing to agree to neutrality if Amazon workers tried to unionize the famously toxic workplace. “You are in a union city”, City Council Speaker Corey Johnson said. “This is a city that was built on unions, a city that loves unions”, Johnson said. “This is not a way to come to our city”.

New Yorkers began drawing increased attention to these predatory aspects of Amazon’s business model as soon as they heard about HQ2. Weeks after the deal was announced, community groups, including ALIGN, New York Communities for Change, the Center for Popular Democracy, the Partnership for Working Families and Make the Road New York, released a report outlining how Amazon HQ2 would exacerbate the city’s already high inequality.

The report explained how money from the tax subsidies could be used on affordable housing, education or public transit. It looked at how HQ2 would accelerate the rapid pace of gentrification, fuel the displacement of New Yorkers and local businesses, and burden already crumbling infrastructure. And it also pointed out how Amazon profits off hate and anti-immigrant policies – a practice all the more deplorable in the district HQ2 was to be located, where 40 percent of residents are immigrants.

Amazon provides much of the infrastructure for the Department of Homeland Security’s immigration databases, the report points out, which means it holds the information that facilitates the mass surveillance, detention, and deportation of immigrants. Amazon also recently marketed its facial recognition software to ICE.

And fueling the American deportation machine isn’t the only way Amazon rakes in cash over racism. The company has long been criticized for allowing hate groups to sell white supremacist products in its marketplace, which helps fund their movements and spread their ideas.

Organizers pointed to all of these components of Amazon – its anti-immigrant practices, its labor violations, the corporate concentration, the way it fuels gentrification and displacement, its tax avoidance – when making their case against letting HQ2 into the city. “If we had only addressed one part of the beast that is Amazon, we would have opened up a window for negotiation”, Pandey said.

“For every person who said, ‘why don’t we try to get more jobs from Amazon?’ we could counter that with ‘that doesn’t stop them from colluding with ICE.’ We needed to highlight all of these elements to show that no promises would have sweetened the pot.”

This multi-pronged attack also helped mobilize people against HQ2, Pandey said, as “each person was drawn to fight against this deal (or ordeal, rather) for many reasons, be it anti-trust concerns, environmental impacts, Amazon’s collusion with ICE, its abuse of workers, etc. We were able to engage with a number of people because this would have affected everyone”.

This article has been excerpted from: ‘Organizers Oust Amazon HQ2 From New York’.

Courtesy: Commondreams.org
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268149-A-deal-for-New-Yorkers-Negin-Owliaei-21-February-2019Our anti-corruption strategy - Nadeem Iqbal - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268148-Our-anti-corruption-strategy-Nadeem-Iqbal-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:20:02 GMTBeing on the same page with all state institutions, the PTI government is well positioned to lay the foundation of a single anti-corruption agency...Being on the same page with all state institutions, the PTI government is well positioned to lay the foundation of a single anti-corruption agency with broader political and bureaucratic ownership by revising the 17-years-old national anti-corruption strategy.

Pakistan’s signing of the UN Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) in 2003 and its ratification in 2007 and the 18th Amendment giving more autonomy to the provinces have all rendered the 2002 national anti-corruption strategy (NACS) redundant.

A strategy provides a goal and a set of actions, while the law provides a tool to achieve that. An institution’s progress is conditional to its successful pursuit of the strategic implementation plan. In the case of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), the reverse was done. The law was promulgated in 1999 while the NACS was evolved in 2002.

The UNCAC that was developed one year later is a legally binding universal anti-corruption instrument. The convention covers five main areas: preventive measures, criminalisation and law enforcement, international cooperation, asset recovery, and technical assistance and information exchange. The convention covers many different forms of corruption, such as bribery, trading in influence, abuse of functions, and various acts of corruption in the private sector.

Besides having linkages with the UN convention, the revised NACS can also provide for the interrelation between federal and provincial anti-corruption establishments, and the internal accountability mechanism of other institutions like the military and judiciary that so far are outside the strategy domain.

The strategy can also facilitate the development of self-accountability instruments in other institutions and link them with the national strategy. A cross learning of each others’ anti-corruption mechanism can also be done.

In 2002, the NACS was launched when Gen Pervez Musharraf was the president and Lt-Gen Munir Hafiez was the chairman of NAB. Though the strategy is not time-bound, it has never been reviewed during the last 17 years. It has an implementation action plan whose different targets were spread over five years. The implementation was to be monitored by a committee headed by the chairman of NAB and including the secretaries of important federal ministries like finance as well as four chief secretaries. They were to meet at least four times a year to streamline the implementation process. To date, there is no report to analyse if that implementation was completed or whether and what hurdles there were. It is ironic that the NACS identified the future parliament, politicians and bureaucrats as potential risks in the non-implementation of the strategy.

The National Accountability Bureau was carved out of specific provisions of the FIA (Federal Investigation Agency) Act 1974. These were related to offences like a public servant taking gratification, taking gratification to influence a public servant, punishment for abetment by a public servant, a public servant unlawfully engaged in a trade and criminal breach of trust by a public servant, or banker or merchant or agent.

The undercurrent in the NACS is to justify the creation of NAB as a top anti-corruption agency because of the failure of FIA and provincial anti-corruption establishments. It says: “Awareness of the issue of corruption has existed, as evident from anti-corruption drives undertaken from time to time. Legal initiatives started with the Prevention of Corruption Act 1947. Laws like Public Representatives (Disqualification) Act 1949 and the Elected Bodies (Disqualification) Ordinance 1959 were introduced to disqualify corrupt public representatives from holding public office. However, they were perceived as exercises in political victimisation.”

Anti-corruption agencies created after Independence, the NACS added, include the FIA that replaced the Pakistan Special Police Establishment (PSPE) in 1975. The provincial ACEs (initially the West Pakistan Anti Corruption Establishment formed in 1961) were established after the breakup of one unit in 1970. Hampered by complicated procedures and political interference, these organisations have proved entirely ineffective. In fact, they are themselves infested with corruption and lack of capacity for the task assigned to them.

“The current anti-corruption structure is the result of decisions taken by exigency rather than considered policymaking. Therefore, it is riddled with issues of unsustainable overlap and inconsistencies, particularly between NAB and FIA; and that the system is entirely enforcement focused; And no agency has responsibility for anti-corruption awareness and prevention.”

The strategy also flagged conflict of interest legislation saying: “The 1997 manifesto of the Pakistan Muslim League promised to pass a conflict of interest legislation, but nothing was done. As a result, one of the most common sources of mega corruption has been the numerous instances of changes in laws or government decisions, which benefit the business or privacy concerns of politicians belonging to current government regimes as well as to hurt the interests of their competitors.”

It is unfortunate that the issues of conflict of interest legislation and duplication of function between NAB and FIA are not yet resolved and are still simmering in the corridors of power. Another law to be enacted was to protect whistle-blowers on in-house corruption in public and private entities. So far, the only such legislation has been done in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There is no formal witness protection system in place.

However, there have been good developments also such as the constitutional right to information; federal and some provincial legislation has brought in further transparency. Consumer protection laws are there in all provinces and at the federal level. Some provinces have food authorities working to ensure better compliance with standards. Similarly, all lawmakers deposit the details of their assets with the Election Commission.

NAB has been advocating for a single anti-corruption establishment at the federal level that has linkages with provincial anti-corruption bodies. However, after the bifurcation of the federal and provincial functions, it is only pertinent that the revised strategy addresses this issue.

Another issue was that of NAB being overseen by the president. The strategy recommended that it should be broad-based by the now-defunct National Security Council. Another option was a Senate committee.

However, the NAB website in its FAQs claims: “Chairman NAB being head of an autonomous Institution reports to none. The provisions of [the] NAO (National Accountability Ordinance), does not lay down any reporting system except the Annual Performance Report, which is mandatory to be presented to the president of Pakistan by 30th March, every year, regulates the investigation and prosecution process in the NAB.”

There is an exemption for the judiciary. However, a review conducted by UNCAC in 2017 says: “The Supreme Judicial Council oversees the accountability of judges; however, during the country visit, it was clarified that the council does not meet regularly.”

Internationally, NAB wants its performance to be measured by the number of investigations it launched and the number of investigations completed. It has 1200 permanent staff, including 135 investigators and 60 prosecutors handling 600 cases annually.

NAB’s 2017 annual report says that it received a total number of 26,551 complaints. Around 456 inquiries and 215 investigations were conducted, while 199 references were filed in accountability courts. The conviction rate of NAB in the courts stood at 70.8 percent. Since 1999, it has recovered Rs295 billion while its total expenditure remained around Rs18 billion. It’s a substantial amount, but given the fact that the projected amount of corruption is huge, this figure seems peanuts.

It will be interesting to see NAB’s performance judged from the prism of the NACS and given a new implementation plan for the next five years by the government in the revised strategy.

The writer is a freelance
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268148-Our-anti-corruption-strategy-Nadeem-Iqbal-21-February-2019Revitalising endangered languages -Zubair Torwali - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268147-Revitalising-endangered-languages-Zubair-Torwali-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:19:43 GMTEfforts towards revitalising endangered languages have gained global significance. There are now hundreds of endangered languages. Though languages...Efforts towards revitalising endangered languages have gained global significance. There are now hundreds of endangered languages. Though languages died in all epochs, the rapid decline of diversity is very unique to the modern era, rivalled only by a similar decline during the agricultural revolution some 10,000 years ago. Consequently, many communities in the world are confronted with the loss of their languages which have been an integral part of their identity.

The awareness towards revitalising languages has its roots in the socio-cultural shift that happened since the end of the cold war when hegemonic patterns, which had actively and explicitly suppressed cultural diversity, began to shatter, and as a result ethnic groups and minorities began to assert themselves and demand their territorial, political and cultural rights. This necessitated a rethink in human rights too.

An example of this is Unesco’s Declaration on Cultural Diversity (2001) where Article 5 states, ‘‘All persons should, therefore, be able to express themselves and to create and disseminate their work in the language of their choice, and particularly in their mother tongue; all persons should be entitled to quality education and training that fully respect their cultural identity.’’ Similar proclamations can also be found in the declarations of other national and transnational organisations.

Another force giving impetus to this concern is globalisation which is a process of international assimilation of economic life but which is also accompanied by the integration of neoliberal political structures. Since globalisation has transformed the traditional political and economic barriers among nations, the exchange of information, goods, money, services and people has grown between regions.

Whereas the modernising and assimilatory effects of globalisation are facts, it has also triggered a sense in communities to reassert their unique cultural identity. There has been a greater interplay between the ‘traditionalist’ and ‘modernist’ tendencies within communities and regions which consequently foster greater efforts for language revitalisation since language is undoubtedly the most powerful and obvious indicator of group identity and can connect both the ‘traditional’ and ‘modern’ constituencies within a community.

Language revitalisation is actually reversing or counter-balancing the societal, political, economic and historical factors that cause language loss. Therefore, a language revitalisation programme does not work in isolation. It requires the understanding of a complex set of factors that leads individuals of a community to make choices about their language use. It requires an understanding of diverse reasons such as attitudes about a language within a community, the socio-cultural and political contexts in which speakers of one language interact with others, the cultural values associated with a language, and regional or national policies effecting choice and teaching of a language. An effective language revitalisation strategy must identify these issues and understand how they interrelate, and impact the patterns of language use.

The variables a language revitalisation programme needs to consider are of an external and internal nature. The external variables are attributable to different spheres of influence ie local, regional, national and international.

At the local level, this variable means how a language is regarded by its neighbours who speak different language(s). This is a language attitude external to the speakers. Such attitude also exists at the national or international level, which influences language policies regionally or nationally.

The regional level is a geographically distinct territory with a political basis. Examples could be Gilgit-Baltistan, AJ&K, and the four provinces in Pakistan. Here two crucial variables need our attention while planning a language revitalisation strategy: the role of regionally dominant languages and language density. In such a situation, the local communities usually finds itself in a tiered system of language choices based on influence of languages. The local language is one tier, the locally dominant language is another, the third is the national language while a language of international access is the fourth one. This is very common in Pakistan.

However, in some rare cases the tiers become more than four. For instance, a speaker of the Ushojo language in Bishigram finds himself in five tiers: Ushojo, Torwali, Pashto, Urdu and English. However, he uses both Ushojo and Torwali for social interactions in his village as their domains are limited both regionally and functionally. But for a speaker of the Cherokee these tiers would be of two as his national and global language coincide, which is English. A Torwali speaker has to use Torwali at the village level, Pashto at the regional, Urdu at the national while English at the global level.

Language density is closely related to multilingualism and has significant impacts on language vitality. This is important in planning language revitalisation programme, and needs much consideration.

The national level is the context of the geopolitical construct that has high influence in most part of the world – though in most countries, including Pakistan after the 18th Amendment, policies that impact local languages operate at the regional level as well. The issues at this level are educational policies, national attitudes towards multilingualism, language policies, regional autonomy and federal support.

Language and educational policies shape patterns of language use in an array of domains and determine teaching of language(s) in educational institutions. These impact the vitality and maintenance of local languages greatly and are often the invisible drivers to foster language attitudes at the micro level, internal to the community, too. Language attitudes at the national level too are fostered by political, economic, historical and cultural reasons.

Countries differ greatly in their national language attitudes. For instance, the US has not developed any official language policy yet it has typically promoted English in the educational system. On the other hand, Pakistan has maintained English as the official language despite proclamations in the constitution for Urdu to be so.

Within a federation, more autonomy is given to regions over education, language, development of infrastructure, allocation of resources et al. In nations where much autonomy is granted to the regions, it has impacted language revitalisation greatly – though in some cases to the benefit of the dominant regional language(s). Regions are allowed to choose the language(s) of instruction at schools and in the media. These endeavours are usually positive for the vitality of the local languages. An example of such arrangement is the passing of the KP Promotion of Regional Languages Authority Act by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2012 which allows inclusion of five regional languages – Pashto, Hindko, Seraiki, Khowar and Kohistani – to be gradually taught at the primary levels.

Global variables, too, cannot be overlooked while designing a language revitalisation programme because they are powerful forces impacting language choice and use. The most obvious example of that is also globalisation. The globalisation of English is actually due to the growing economic integration which needs international access languages, not necessarily one language. Such other languages could be English, Mandarin, Spanish, or maybe Arabic as well, because each has transnational influence in the globalising world.

The writer heads an independent organisation dealing with education and development in Swat.

Email: ztorwali@gmail.com
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268147-Revitalising-endangered-languages-Zubair-Torwali-21-February-2019The NHP issue - A Rauf K Khattak - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268146-The-NHP-issue-A-Rauf-K-Khattak-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:19:15 GMTI was looking after the portfolio of ‘inter-provincial matters’, besides others, in the last interim government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It was a...I was looking after the portfolio of ‘inter-provincial matters’, besides others, in the last interim government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It was a sobering experience to learn how not to run a federation.

Let me take a few issues bedevilling relations between KP and the federal government. On top of the list is net hydel profits (NHP). (By the way, the word ‘hydel’ does not exist in the English language. It is used here because that is how it has been used all along).

Article 161(2) of the constitution provides how net profits earned by the federal government , or any undertaking established or administered by the federal government, shall be paid to the province in which the hydro-electric station is situated.

The Kazi committee had successfully arrived at a methodology for computing NHP in July 1985; this was known as the Kazi Committee Methodology (KCM). The issue was approved and endorsed by the Council of Common Interests in 1991, 1993, 1997 and 1998. It was endorsed through a presidential order in 1991, and by a Supreme Court decision in 1997. Over three decades later, the federal government has not been able to implement an agreed position and a settled question. The KP government has been reduced to the position of a supplicant.

By adopting the KCM, KP will be entitled to get Rs90 billion per year as NHP. Are we grudging this to KP? If money is not available in the system to pay then it could be considered as an interest-bearing loan to the federal government. The latter could undertake to pay it in 50 years.

A related issue is that the provincial government has no means to know how much electricity is produced from various hydroelectric power stations. The federal government has been repeatedly asked since 2015 to install the requisite software for recording daily electricity production. The IPCC and the CCI in 2017 and 2018 repeatedly directed to install the system.

Not many are aware that the government of KP established four run-of-river power generating projects. The total power produced from these projects is 74.2 MW. Two of them, Pehur (Swabi) and Machai (Mardan), have been connected to the national grid since 2010. The KP government’s requests to the Central Power Purchasing Agency to sign a power purchase agreement have not been heeded. The rate determined by Nepra is Rs4.5 per unit of electricity while the CPPA is paying Rs1 per unit and is reluctant to sign a PPA to be placed before the Inter Provincial Coordination Committee for approval.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the new frontier for oil and gas production. At present, 14 national and international companies are busy exploring and producing gas in 28 blocks. As per Article 158 of the constitution, the province has a preferential right on usage of gas. Sadly the same mindset prevails here which gave so much resentment in Balochistan about the distribution of Sui gas.

These are but a few instances that I picked up to prove how constitutional provisions are violated, the Supreme Court’s decisions are ignored and the government’s own decisions are not meant to be implemented. How does the government expect its citizens to be obedient to the constitution and the law as provided by the Article 5(2) if it itself stands in violations of it? Is Article 6 of the constitution the only provision to be taken seriously?

In many cases the provinces have been hollering down the federal well, hearing back their own echoes and nothing else.

The PTI has been carried by the people of KP to national heights. Its success in this province in 2013 enabled it to make exaggerated claims about the transformations brought about there, hence claiming to be the only party of change in the entire country. The PTI owes it to the people of KP to resolve all its legitimate, lawful issues with the federal government.

The writer is a former civil servant and a former minister.

Email: raufkkhattak@gmail.com
]]>Newspaper Columns | Editorials | OpinionsRealpakihttp://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268146-The-NHP-issue-A-Rauf-K-Khattak-21-February-2019Hoping for the best - Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri - 21 February 2019http://forum.pakdiscussion.com/showthread.php/268145-Hoping-for-the-best-Dr-Abid-Qaiyum-Suleri-21-February-2019?goto=newpost
Thu, 21 Feb 2019 05:16:53 GMT“Twenty hours, $20 billion, and the next 20 months”. While praising the productivity of time spent by the Crown Prince of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia...“Twenty hours, $20 billion, and the next 20 months”. While praising the productivity of time spent by the Crown Prince of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) who signed off MOUs worth $20 billion between the kingdom and Pakistan during his twenty-hour stay in Islamabad, many are asking how many of these MOUs would be converted to fully functional agreements within the next twenty months.

Many say (and I mostly tend to agree with them) that MOUs between heads of governments are mere photo opportunities. However, this time I am optimistic. My optimism is because – unlike our earlier economic engagements with the KSA, which were transactional in nature –this time we are talking of long-term engagement. Another difference is that this time relations between the two countries are not only confined to the ruling families from both sides, but are being institutionalised. Key Saudi ministers in the crown prince’s delegation immediately engaged with their Pakistani counterparts to start following up on what was agreed upon by their respective leadership. State-level engagements will be further institutionalised through a high-powered Supreme Coordination Council.

Having said that, one must also keep in mind that the current Saudi MOUs will not turn around Pakistan’s economy overnight. The output of these MOUs would depend upon effective follow up and how best they resonate with the Saudi growth plan – Saudi Vision 2030. The crux of Vision 2030 is to diversify KSA’s economic dependency from petrodollars and focus on the manufacturing and services sector as alternative sources of revenue. Renewable energy, health, education, tourism, agriculture, and hospitality industry etc are some of the sectors identified in Vision 2030.

Thus, it does not surprise me that an MOU for investment of $4 billion in a “concentrated solar plan” (renewable energy) by ACWA Power is considered among the low-hanging fruits. This project should be on ground within the next two years. KSA is also interested in buying two RLNG plants. These plants would be privatised after fulfilling all procedural formalities and the Saudi companies may invest here if they give a competitive bid. Private sector engagements, initiated by the Board of Investment – especially in agro-based industries – are other possible low-hanging fruits.

In the medium term, Pakistan needs to think of devising a plan to remain relevant with Saudi Arabia’s new growth strategy. How to prepare our blue-collar emigrants to take up white-collared jobs in the kingdom is an important question if we want an uninterrupted flow of remittances from KSA. Matching the HR requirement for the non-traditional job market in KSA is a big opportunity as well as a challenge. We would have to rethink and redesign our vocational trainings and professional certifications to grab these opportunities.

The flagship investment from Saudi Arabia would be in the petrochemical sector, a state-of-the-art oil refinery in Gwadar. However, it is a long-term plan. Just the feasibility of setting up a refinery takes 18 to 24 months, and then comes the installation and operationalisation of that refinery. However, the Saudis are serious about this project. The Saudi energy minister has already visited Gwadar, weeks before the crown prince’s visit, and the terms of reference for feasibility work are being prepared.

Apart from the above-mentioned outcomes of the Saudi-Pak MOUs, there are two more areas where Pakistan can benefit from its Saudi friends. First is Saudi presence on the IMF’s Board of Directors. In our negotiation for the forthcoming IMF package, we need the board members to support our “home-grown solution” – ie, economic adjustments at our own pace. This is where Saudi Arabia and China (another board member) may be lobbied to strongly support Pakistan’s case.

The second and the most crucial area where Saudi Arabia can help us is deradicalisation of society. Saudi Arabia, under the leadership of the crown prince, is opening up and promoting moderate Islam. We should utilise the influence of Saudi scholars to deradicalise some of our religious hardliners.

Pakistan’s renewed friendship with KSA should not be considered as something happening at the expense of our relations with China. To me, Saudi investment is a sequel of CPEC. We met our infrastructure and energy requirements through CPEC phase one. The Gwadar Port, where the petrochemical complex is proposed to be built, is a direct outcome of CPEC and the two would complement each other.

I hope that Pakistan’s potential as a stabiliser and growth hub for the region would be a common point of discussion between the crown prince and the Chinese leadership when both of them meet later this week.

PM Khan’s economic strategy is unfolding: arranging balance of payments; efforts to improve ease and cost of doing business; and bringing in long-term investment through institutional engagement with our friends is the way to go. The economic team and economic ministries have put an impressive show as for as far as the visit of the Saudi crown prince and Saudi investors is concerned.

The government is also planning to attract investment from Qatar and Turkey, two states that have political differences with KSA. We also resolve to maintain friendly relations with Iran that has huge political differences with KSA.

It is up to us how well we can play our cards. The best-case scenario is where we can be a stabiliser in the region, and the worst-case scenario is where we, God forbid, mishandle and witness another proxy war on our soil. The worst-case scenario is certainly not an option. Let us spend our energies for the best-case scenario.