Lower than projected premiums under the Affordable Care Act will save the federal government $190 billion over 10 years and increase the law’s deficit reduction by 174 percent to almost $300 billion, a new analysis from the Center for American Progress has found. The report, from Topher Spiro and Jonathan Gruber, bolsters President Obama’s claims on Monday that despite the ongoing technical problems surrounding HealthCare.gov, “the product of the Affordable Care Act for people without health insurance is quality health insurance that’s affordable.”

In fact, the emergence of new insurers and increased competition within the law’s marketplaces has lowered premiums below Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections from March of 2012. While the nonpartisan office estimated that the average second-lowest-cost individual silver plan premiums would cost $4,700 in 2014, the actual average premium turned out to be $3,936 or “16 percent lower than projected.” The savings are significant because the law pegs its tax credits to the cost of the second-lowest silver plan. “If premiums for that plan are lower, then the cost of tax credits will also be lower,” the report argues. Here is why:

Consider a typical individual making $30,000 a year. That individual’s premium contribution would be capped at 8.37 percent of income, or $2,512. If the premium for the second-lowest-cost silver plan is $4,700, then the tax credit would be the difference between this premium and the individual’s contribution, or $2,188. But if the premium for the second-lowest-cost silver plan turns out to be only $3,936, then the tax credit would be $1,424.

“[A] 16 percent reduction in premiums will lower the total cost of tax credits by about 21 percent” or $190 billion dollars, Spiro and Gruber calculate. They also note that lower premiums will make insurance more affordable for the uninsured, expanding coverage to an additional 700,000 people.

While the Obama administration has yet to release the number of people who have successfully enrolled in coverage in the 36 states where the federal government is operating health care exchanges, it estimates that 476,000 individuals have begun applying for coverage through federal and state exchanges. Enrollment figures from states operating their own exchanges are alsopromising.

The CBO predicts that seven million people will sign up for insurance in the health care exchanges between October and March, including 2.7 million young and healthy people. Administration officials expressed confidence on Monday that they expect to meet their targets despite the ongoing website glitches.

George Schwab, 62, of North Carolina, said he was "perfectly happy" with his plan from Blue Cross Blue Shield, which also insured his wife for a $228 monthly premium. But this past September, he was surprised to receive a letter saying his policy was no longer available. The "comparable" plan the insurance company offered him carried a $1,208 monthly premium and a $5,500 deductible.

And the best option he’s found on the exchange so far offered a 415 percent jump in premium, to $948 a month.

"The deductible is less," he said, "But the plan doesn't meet my needs. Its unaffordable."

"I'm sitting here looking at this, thinking we ought to just pay the fine and just get insurance when we're sick," Schwab added. "Everybody's worried about whether the website works or not, but that's fixable. That's just the tip of the iceberg. This stuff isn't fixable."

Heather Goldwater, 38, of South Carolina, is raising a new baby while running her own PR firm. She said she received a letter last July from Cigna, her insurance company, that said the company would no longer offer her individual plan, and promised to send a letter by October offering a comparable option. So far, she hasn't received anything.

"I'm completely overwhelmed with a six-month-old and a business,” said Goldwater. “The last thing I can do is spend hours poring over a website that isn't working, trying to wrap my head around this entire health care overhaul."

Goldwater said she supports the new law and is grateful for provisions helping folks like her with pre-existing conditions, but she worries she won’t be able to afford the new insurance, which is expected to cost more because it has more benefits. "I'm jealous of people who have really good health insurance," she said. "It's people like me who are stuck in the middle who are going to get screwed."