2009 Emmy Predictions

I've been watching a lot of television in preparation for the Paste Fall Guide to Good TV, coming this October. My TV overdose continues Sunday night when I'll be watching the Emmys. But before Neil Patrick Harristakes the stage, here are my 2009 Emmy Predictions.

Who will win: Mad MenDespite
a relatively small following on AMC, those who've discovered this
wickedly fun time capsule from the bourbon-in-the-afternoon early '60s will
enjoy seeing it get its second Emmy.

Who should win: DexterI loveMad Men, but I'm addicted to Dexter.
There's nothing that stirs serious self-reflection like finding myself
pulling for a serial killer. As Lila once said, staring into Dexter's
eyes is like staring into a mirror. Except I'm a little more disturbed
at what I see than she was.

Dark Horse: Breaking BadI'm still catching up on Weeds and The Wire before I bring another drug dealer into my living room, but I'm well aware I'm missing something special.

Who should win: The Daily ShowIf it was Stephen Colbertvs.
Jon Stewart, it might be time to give the nod to Colbert, but Stewart
continues to surround himself with phenomenal talent (like John Oliver).

Dark Horse: Saturday Night Live
It could be the beneficiary of low expectations and potent political humor.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie:PBS has half the nominees in this category. HBOhas two. And the other
belongs to Fox's Jack Bauer? Our money is on Ian McKellen as King Lear.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie:
Someone may soon win an award for a performance as Coco Chanel, but it's
not going to be Shirley MacLaine. This is a fight between Grey Gardensstars Drew Barrymoreand Jessica Lange, and we pick Lange.

Outstanding Host for a Reality Show:
When we recover from learning that Ryan Seacrest was nominated, we'll give this one to Jeff Probst.

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Special:So much funny here, but we're pulling for Ricky Gervais.