Will immigration reform harm economy?

FILE - In this Nov. 4, 2010 file photo, Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Ky. speaks at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. Republicans plan to use the investigative powers of Congress to go afte President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, and they're focusing on questions uppermost in the minds of consumers: What's it going to cost me? Can I keep the coverage I have if I like it? (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)
— AP

FILE - In this Nov. 4, 2010 file photo, Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Ky. speaks at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. Republicans plan to use the investigative powers of Congress to go afte President Barack Obama's health care overhaul, and they're focusing on questions uppermost in the minds of consumers: What's it going to cost me? Can I keep the coverage I have if I like it? (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)
/ AP

Question: An estimate by the Heritage Foundation says the bipartisan Senate immigration reform bill would cost taxpayers $6.3 trillion over 50 years because those offered amnesty would receive more government benefits than they would pay in taxes. Do you agree with this conclusion?

Panel's answers: Yes 1, No 8

Marney Cox, San Diego Association of Governments

Immigrants now comprise more than 12 percent of the American population, approaching levels not seen since the 1920s. About 28 percent of the total foreign-born population could be unauthorized, some 11 million people. So, although the concern has merit, as long as the U.S. remains the land of opportunity, not guaranteed entitlements, it should be able to continue to prosper and grow from the contributions of immigrants. Although currently roughly 30 percent of immigrants lack a high school diploma, nearly four times the U.S. average, immigration policies can be adjusted to ensure the U.S. attracts and retains people with the greatest opportunity (education and skills) to contribute to economic growth.

Yes
81% (67)

No
19% (16)

Kelly Cunningham, National University Systems

Heritage correctly highlights unlawful immigrants tend to have relatively low education and work in relatively low wage jobs. Over their lifetime they are likely to consume more government services than pay in taxes. The report errs, however, by not considering significant benefits arising to the economy from undocumented workers moving out of the shadows and becoming full tax payers. It also does not consider the impacts from some of those immigrants being more able to move up the income ladder. In other words, the report only describes gross effects of unlawful immigration on the federal budget and not NET impact.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

One problem with the Heritage Foundation report is that it uses static analysis and doesn’t fully take into account the positive impact of immigration reform on the economy. The libertarian Cato Institute found that immigration reform would boost the economy by $1.5 trillion over a 10-year period due greater productivity and economic activity from those who would otherwise be in the shadows of society. The rest of the economy would also benefit, including more revenue being generated at all levels of government. The same study shows a negative impact of $2.6 trillion if all those who are now here illegally were forced out of the country.

James Hamilton, University of California San Diego

It is very difficult to estimate the added number of immigrants that would result from this legislation, let alone to calculate the added tax revenues from their earnings and the total expenses for government transfers and services for them over the next 50 years. I think it is more meaningful to look at the consequences for the distribution of income. Having more people seeking low-skilled jobs is a benefit to employers who get to hire cheap labor, but hurts American workers who are also trying to get those low-paying jobs. Immigration is one reason why those on the bottom have been falling farther behind.