Marine Weather and TidesPort Monmouth, NJ

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:29AM

Sunset 8:16PM

Saturday May 25, 2019 6:50 AM EDT (10:50 UTC)

Moonrise 1:15AM

Moonset 11:29AM

Illumination 61%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

ANZ300 620 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019 Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure to our east gives way to an approaching warm front tonight which likely moves through by Sunday morning. A trailing cold front passes through Sunday night. High pressure will briefly follow on Monday. Another warm front will then move through on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Fxus61 kokx 251019
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
619 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure to our east gives way to an approaching warm front
tonight which likely moves through by Sunday morning. A trailing
cold front passes through Sunday night. High pressure will briefly
follow on Monday. Another warm front will then move through on
Tuesday, with a cold front following for Thursday into Thursday
night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is on track with minor adjustments made to some
hourly forecast elements.

Upper ridge axis becomes centered over us today with surface high
pressure not too far offshore. More clouds overall in the afternoon,
and ridging should be strong enough to hold off on any showers
trying to move in from the west through the day. Highs around 70 at
the coast with an onshore flow, and low to mid 70s elsewhere.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents today.Rents
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
A warm front approaches tonight. Isentropic and shortwave lift
combine with deepening moisture for a chance of showers with
generally better overall chances after midnight. The best overall
combination of moisture and lift will be across ct and eastern li,
where likely pops have been maintained. Will also keep isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast as elevated CAPE shifts in.

The warm front likely passes through most, if not all, of the
forecast area tonight. It otherwise should clear the area during
Sunday morning. This leads to a warmer and more humid day with high
temperatures mostly 10-15 degree above normal. Enough dry air aloft
will help mix out surface dewpoints a little out ahead of any
potential moisture pooling along an approaching cold front. Heat
index values will therefore be near ambient temperatures.

The cold front approaches from the NW and moves through during the
late afternoon evening hours. Capping and a relatively drier profile
look to keep us dry in the morning. Increasing lift, moisture and
cape along with steeper lapse rates then bring isolated scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Some storms
could have strong gusts given modeled shear values and a somewhat
dry sub-cloud layer inverted-v profile. Dry weather then follows for
the overnight hours behind the front.

There is a low risk of rip current development on Sunday.

Long term Monday through Friday
Weak high pressure builds in for Monday with a continuation of dry
weather and less humid than Sunday. Highs still above normal, but
not a warm as Sunday. High pressure then moves offshore Tuesday,
allowing a return to warm advection with a front slowly moving
northeastward through the region, which may spark a few
thunderstorms.

We then stay solidly in the warm sector for Wednesday and Thursday,
with temperatures well above climatological normals and an
increasing chance for diurnal thunderstorms. Once again although
forcing for ascent is weak and confined to a subtle short wave and
surface trough for Wednesday, steep low and mid level lapse rates

may contribute to a few stronger cells. Chances of strong
thunderstorms then increase into late Thursday with the approach of
a cold front, especially with the increasing wind field as the upper
trough nears. The front then passes through overnight, marking a
return to more seasonable conditions.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front approaches
from the west tonight.

Vfr today. Light SE winds are expected early this morning.

Winds then become southerly 10-15 kt, strongest at the coast
through the day.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight, but
there is low confidence in coverage and timing. MainlyVFR
expected through midnight.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday Late tonight Chance of MVFR or lower in showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Sunday MostlyVFR. Chance of MVFR or ifr early, and again in
late day showers tstms.

Monday Vfr.

Tuesday-Wednesday Chance of MVFR or lower with
showers thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening each
day.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions today with a southerly flow increasing in the
afternoon. Winds continue to increase tonight with near-advisory
conditions, but should prevail below it. Winds then weaken a little
on Sunday with the continuation of sub-sca conds, which will last
through Wednesday, although thunderstorms will be capable of
producing locally hazardous conditions at times.

Hydrology
Rain amounts with showers tonight will most likely range up to
around a quarter of an inch. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated
with this, and are not anticipated into next week as well.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of EDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)

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