Thursday, December 04, 2008

As NATO once again rejected Kyiv’s application for MAP, the man who routinely patronizes Ukraine could hardly contain his joy. “Pomatrosili i brosili” (“humped her and dumped her”), he summed up.

He said more:

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s envoy to NATO: Ukraine has a very important choice to make: uh…to become a state…uh…desired by truly all — both by Russia and the West — uh…and to dev…to think about its economy, to raise quality of life standards, or, in such a silly manner, to throw itself into the whirlpool, whether by cordial attachment or arrangement — I really don’t know what it is that you have. We’re just worried about you and glad for you — glad you didn’t get MAP, and I think you should share this joy with us.

As every country makes his own interest policy, so do the western European countries, among them Germany and France.

If one likes or not, Russia is still an important power on the world map which cannot just be neglected. Further on and more important are of course economical reasons, mainly concerning energy supply. Therfore decisions concerning Russian interests (if they are legitmate or not, is not essential) will be taken at least with consultation of Russia.

It is understandable that Germany doesn't want to support Ukraine to join the MAP in this moment, as they have clear policy interests in Russia (gaz delivery).

In practice and this is also understandable, a joining of NATO is often seen as a pre-entry stage to join the European Union. Even if this may be true, the European Union is neither a guarantee for economic development nor a way to the "paradise". Czechs, celebrating enthusiastically their joining in the Union in 2005, are more nocturne now about their perspectives when taking over the EU presidency.

To say it clear: The joining of the EU is not the aim, but the result at the end of the way. What Ukraine needs most are reforms and a further development in almost all spheres. But this takes time, and back hits are also occuring on the way.

Therefore it is more reasonable, to tell the Ukrainian the truth and to make them clear, that a painful adjustment - under the current economic crisis - is needed. In the best case, this crisis could even have long-term positive effects, being a main driver for reforms and Ukraine would get stronger out of this cris for the next recovery.

But honestly, I am more confident of Ukraine being on the more or less same trap as before. It will probably need some more time to find the way.

And what definatley not helps: It is ridicoulus, hearing politicians in Ukraine praising the EURO 2012 as some event, or even sometimes as "entry ticket" to the European Union. What the economical stimulus concerns, it is not to take serious. Every country which hosted such a tournament paid in the end more than it got. And to build stadiums, airports or even roads in an extent wich are overdimensioned and not used, is the biggest stupidity.

What Ukraine needs is hard work. To live on credit is not sustaiable in the long run.