Entrepreneurs Have Been Proving Experts Wrong Forever

There’s a long-standing tradition among scientists, engineers, and industrialists. Every new year, they make predictions about a future.

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Well, technology has proven to be extraordinarily slippery over the past century. Despite the vast information that industry insiders have had at their fingertips, they’ve made some pretty terrible forecasts over the years.

The predictions that history remembers most are those that demonstrate spectacular misjudgment, misunderstanding, overly optimistic hyperbole, self-delusion, or good old-fashion wishful thinking.

Considered one of the 20th century’s most successful women entrepreneurs, Madam C.J. Walker built her empire out of nothing. Her parents were former slaves, and she was orphaned at the age of 7.

Below, I’ve listed the very worst predictions, which show how even the titans of industry don’t always know what they’re talking about. Whether they were predictions about technological progress, adoption rates, or market potential, we can all agree that these predictions were dead wrong.

1876: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” — William Orton, President of Western Union.

1876: “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, chief engineer, British Post Office.

1889: “Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” — Thomas Edison.

1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.” —President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

1921: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio.

1926: “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility.” — LeeDeForest,“Father of Radio” and a pioneer in the development of sound-on-film recording used for motion pictures. He had over 180 patents.

1932: “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” — Albert Einstein.

1936: “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times.

1946: “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox.

1949: “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers of the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh one and a half tons.” — Popular Mechanics.

1957: “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — Editor of Prentice Hall business books.

1959: “The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most.” IBM told the eventual founders of Xerox.

1961: “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States.” —T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.

1977: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” — Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp.

1981: “No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft.

The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law” — which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants — becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.

It’s my favorite prediction because as result he contradicts himself.

Predictions are a risky business. Even more so if they’re about the immediate future. Once shown to be wrong, the words return to their origin like a boomerang, and the quotes go on to forever haunt the speaker.

About Rod Martin

Rod is one of our nation’s leading minds. He’s smart, original, and very committed—a combination that one rarely finds.Peter ThielPayPal, Founders Fund, Facebook, Palantir

Rod Martin and [former Howard Dean campaign manager] Joe Trippi are America’s two foremost experts on online politics.Annual Bipartisan Conference of George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management

Rod Martin is a Reaganite-Thatcherite conservative…[and] a man who has spent much of his life ministering to and working for the benefit of others. I know Rod as an advocate for freedom, a leader who understands the real changes we need in Washington, and who has the drive and ability to make those changes happen.Steve ForbesPresident and CEO, Forbes; Former Presidential Candidate

Rod Martin is the kind of dynamic leader who has the knowledge, ability and experience to lead us successfully into the 21st Century. His vision for America is compelling.Gov. Mike HuckabeeFormer Arkansas Governor and Presidential Candidate

Rod Martin literally wrote the book on excellence. Humble yet brilliant, a man of love and compassion, with penetrating clarity he illuminates the world around us, and we are both stirred and enlightened.Dr. Gil AmelioExecutive Committee, AT&T; Former CEO, Apple Computer and National Semiconductor

Rod Martin has a proven track record of overwhelming success. I believe in him strongly.Dr. Ronnie FloydPresident, The Southern Baptist Convention

Rod Martin is a born leader and an outstanding political mind. Anyone who takes him on is going to have a serious fight on their hands.Dick DresnerCelebrated International Political Consultant, Credited With Boris Yeltsin’s 1996 50-Point Turnaround Re-Election

Rod Martin is a man of uncommon vision and character. Ever since I first worked alongside Rod in the early days of PayPal, I’ve been struck by his powerful vision for the future. Rod understands the intersection of technology, politics and culture in a way that few others do.Eric JacksonFormer Chief Marketing Officer, PayPal.com; Author, The PayPal Wars; Founder and CEO, CapLinked.com

Rod Martin wears with uncommon grace an uncanny ability to link his vigorous faith to the practical challenges of both the business world and the political arena. Yet the respect he shows for others carries a warmth and modesty that are both too rare among those who are strong advocates of feisty positions.Joel BelzFounder, World Magazine; Former Chairman of the Board, Covenant College

America badly needs more leaders who really get the future. We need more Rod Martins.Randy TateFormer Deputy Whip, U.S. House of Representatives

Rod Martin is a modern day philosopher-statesman. He is a capitalist intellectual, a conservative iconoclast, a gentle adversary and a kind prophet. He inspires us towards a fresh national vision built upon the original founding principles.José GonzálezPresident, Semila

Rod Martin is not only effective and efficient, but he is also perceptive, wise and gracious. He gets things done. He is a great friend and a great ally.Dr. Ted BaehrPublisher, MOVIEGUIDE®; Chairman, Christian Film and Television Commission

Rod is one of the sharpest, most gracious men I know, and one of the most gifted political thinkers today. His ability to analyze issues and communicate thoughtful insights on them have earned him the respect of people across the political spectrum.Dr. Tom AscolExecutive Director, Founders Ministries, Southern Baptist Convention

I am proud to have been Rod Martin’s friend for a quarter century, and I can tell you that he is one of the finest men and most outstanding leaders in our church and in our country today. He has a knack for turning everything he touches to success.Hon. Paul PresslerRetired Justice, Texas Court of Appeals; Past President, Council for National Policy

Rod Martin is a cornucopian entrepreneur and eutropic thinker whose influence radiates through an array of companies, institutions, movements and churches. A renaissance American, he is also a prolific friend of freedom and faith around the globe.George GilderFounding Father of Supply-Side Economics, Globally-Recognized Technology Guru

If Rod Martin represents the next generation of leaders, America has nothing to worry about.Hon. John Paul HammerschmidtU.S. House Republican Leadership, 1967-1993

A leader and a servant, in public life and in private, Rod Martin strides at the top of his profession, and has nowhere to go but up. He is in the truest sense of the word ‘outstanding’.Hugh O'BrianLegendary Actor; Founder, Hugh O'Brian Youth Leadership (HOBY)

Rod Martin is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished thought leaders today. He is a wonderful mentor, a humble role model, and a deep inspiration for the next generation of scientific innovators and entrepreneurs.Dr. Harald OttOtt Laboratory for Organ Engineering and Regeneration, Harvard Medical School

Rod’s achievements pale beside his character and his brilliance. He sees what others can’t. He leads when others won’t.Jane Russell"40 Most Iconic Movie Goddesses of All Time", Glamour

Rod Martin is one of America’s finest young minds.Dr. Edward TellerFather of the H-Bomb