Blog

Who Drinks More: Liberals or Conservatives?

Liberals, according to a new paper in the Journal of Wine Economics by Pavel A. Yakovlev and Walter P. Guessford of Duquesne University. The paper, “Alcohol Consumption and Political Ideology: What’s Party Got to Do with It?,” looks at alcohol consumption and voting patterns from 1952 to 2010 and finds that as states become more liberal politically, beer and spirit consumption increases, while wine consumption goes down. The abstract:

Recent research in psychology and sociology has established a connection between political beliefs and unhealthy behaviors such as excessive alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drug consumption. In this study, we estimate the relationship between political ideology and the demand for beer, wine, and spirits using a longitudinal panel of fifty U.S. states from 1952 to 2010. Controlling for various socioeconomic factors and unobserved heterogeneity, we find that when a state becomes more liberal politically, its consumption of beer and spirits rises, while its consumption of wine may fall. Our findings suggest that political beliefs are correlated with the demand for alcohol.

Nosybear

January 30, 2014 @ 4:22pm

The key word in all of this is "correlation." Perhaps it isn't the Liberals drinking more, but the displaced Conservatives. Put another way, this study effectively told us that liberal voting patterns and drinking are moving in the same direction. Much like sunspots and the stock market.

Matt

January 30, 2014 @ 4:25pm

They come up with some pretty curious results--the more elderly people in the population, the more beer (and less wine and spirits) that is consumed. Likewise, the more men there are, the less beer (and wine and spirits) that is consumed.

Erik

January 30, 2014 @ 4:38pm

Has the consideration been made that Red States tend to be lower income states vs. Blue States? Spirits and Alcohol is a luxury good, and it makes sense that an income increase would also lead to higher consumption levels. Just wondering if it could be a causation vs. correlation fallacy.

Enter your name...

January 30, 2014 @ 6:13pm

I suspect that "various socioeconomic factors" includes income, but even if it doesn't, that sounds backwards: poor states buy more expensive wine, but less cheap beer? Beer consumption appears to be highest among people whose income is a bit below the national median, not among rich people.

James

January 30, 2014 @ 9:13pm

Wine can be fairly inexpensive if you buy the sorts that come in a box or jug, and even cheaper if your tipple of choice is a bottle of Thunderbird in a brown paper sack. I've never worked out the cost per alcohol content, but I suspect there's a reason we have winos rather than 'beeros'.

Jason

January 30, 2014 @ 6:11pm

I don't buy it, blue states have some of the highest per-capita consumption of wine. Red states have some of the lowest for wine and much higher for beer and spirits. I work in the beverage alcohol industry, there are decades of consumption data to verify this.

Pavel Yakovlev

January 31, 2014 @ 12:02am

Dear readers, to answer some of your questions...
Yes we are controlling for income, unemployment, alcohol prices, and many other factors that should affect the demand for each type of alcohol.
Some of the results, especially for demographic groups and the positive although weak conservative effect on wine, also surprised me.
We acknowledge that the results do not establish causality. However, we do attempt to eliminate the common sources of bias by using state and year fixed effects among others.

One of the biases and common misinterpretations that we do eliminate is the claim by Jason that blue states have high consumption of wine, etc. That might be the case, but it is not just ideology that's responsible for it, but rather a multitude of other factors. Some care should be taken when interpreting the results. Specifically, our estimates suggest that holding everything else constant, states consume more per capita when they become more liberal over time, not necessarily that liberals drink more than conservatives. In other words, we are suggesting that liberals and conservatives might drink at different levels and for many other reasons, but some might start to drink more as they become more liberal.

Read more...

nobody.really

January 31, 2014 @ 5:51pm

[H]olding everything else constant, states consume more per capita when they become more liberal over time, not necessarily that liberals drink more than conservatives. In other words, we are suggesting that liberals and conservatives might drink at different levels and for many other reasons, but some might start to drink more as they become more liberal.

Oh, just come right out at say it in plain English: THE RISE OF OBAMA IS DRIVING EVERYONE TO DRINK.

There. That wasn’t so hard, was it?

tom

January 31, 2014 @ 4:15pm

If you look at their conclusions, you can see where lazy meets sloppy.

"Our findings are relatively consistent with the recent sociological studies showing
that people with more socialist views tend to engage in more unhealthy behaviors
such as excessive drinking (Cockerham, 1999, 2005; Cockerham et al., 2002, 2006;
Dmitrieva, 2005; Shkolnikov and Meslé, 1996). This sociological argument is
similar to the theory of moral hazard in economics, which postulates that people
may behave irresponsibly when they do not fully bear the cost of their behavior.
This moral hazard argument might be responsible for some of our findings,
considering that more liberal states tend to advocate for a stronger role for
government in health care and social welfare."

What, if anything, does "relatively consistent" mean? The moral hazard argument "might be responsible for some"? It strikes me as though these are lots of weasel words to cover a very weak causal argument.

Read more...

nequelquepart

January 31, 2014 @ 10:48pm

Only one thing is for certain: All those who are paying 40% higher premiums exponentially higher deductibles, or can't afford health insurance (thanks to ObamaCare) will want consume a great deal more alcohol. So, thanks, Blue States.

Steve Cebalt

January 31, 2014 @ 10:58pm

I'm from Indiana, and I drink Kessler's (very cheap whiskey) when I feel conservative, and Wild Turkey 101 when I'm feelin' Liberal.