Stuff

The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and the Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 28%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 17%(-2). The fieldwork was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so at just the same time as the YouGov polls showing the Labour lead almost vanishing, but doesn’t show any significant narrowing. Populus’s poll yesterday also showed things rumbling along as usual.

In the weekend papers we should also have the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times.

I have been following German politics intensely since I lived there briefly in the early 70s. I have to say this election is probably the most nail-bitingly close I can remember.

Die Linke (The Left) are very interesting. In the former DDR states they have a superb grass roots network on the ground built out of the old PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism) network which they inherited from the Communists! It is akin to the old pre-1970s local Conservative Party network I was describing a couple of threads ago! It means that on polling day The Left in those eastern states always out-perform polling expectations.

In the former West German territories, with the exception of Saarland, their organisation is average to poor, their support being largely formed from hitherto splinter Trotskyite groups who piggy-back into parliament on The Left list. In the Saar they have the benefit of major local personality following from the breakaway faction from the SPD led by the former SPD Finance Minister and later Chancellor candidate Oskar Lafontaine who is sadly now ill with cancer.
It would seem logical to a non-German for the SPD/Greens to consider a coalition with Die Linke.

However, since their former East German component refuse point-blank to condemn the “Shoot to Kill” policy of the former East German regime they remain an anathema to all mainstream parties despite their dedicated, and in the East large, following.
I predict Die Linke will get a couple of percentage points more than their poll ratings and possibly hit 10,5%

The AfD is the great unknown. They are in spirit, if not in actual policies, a “German UKIP”. I suspect that they will be hovering around the 5% threshold. They undoubtedly have more support than their 3,5 to 5,0 range in polls suggest – but enough to hurdle the 5% – a nail-biter. And, why does this matter? Because if they fail to get into parliament the CDU/FDP will probably win, and if they do then they will lose their working majority.

A German friend who is a SPD supporter told me that he is considering voting for the AfD tactically although he loathes what they stand for!!! I asked him why? His answer is instructive. If the AfD get seats the CDU will be forced to bring the SPD into government in a grand coalition. If not, then the CDU/FDP will win, despite how well the SPD do!

Ozwald – I would always advise people to be extremely cautious towards any survey where the polling company that actually did the research is not identified.

It often means it’s either done on their own website and is a voodoo poll, or is a pr-led onepoll stuff. I have no idea about this particular case, it may be they commissioned a kosher pollster, but if a company paid a proper company to do the research they are normally keen to shout about it so people take it seriously.

Tony Dean
I appreciated your summary very much. I suppose SPD supporters could lose a few % to AfD as a tactical vote, but what if loads did? It seems the same tactic as CDU /CSU supporters voting for FPD with the second vote. I assume your quoted colleague would be using his second vote for his tactic?

There could be unintended consequences though, as Merkel has pointed out to her own supporters.

I agree that it’s horrendous but I am not so sure it is indicative of the “global reach” of al-Shabab. Kenya is after all just across the border from Somalia. There are lots of Kenyan troops in southern Somalia, and lots of Somali ex-pats in Kenya. Plus, like Nigeria, Kenya is a regionally divided country in terms of religious affiliation, with the North and East containing large populations of Muslims.

If al-Shabab ever blow up the Kenyan embassy in Tokyo, or assassinate an Ethiopian politician on a visit to Brazil, then I’ll be thinking in terms of global reach.

Glad you found my summary of some help. Yes, my SPD friend has indeed (he just texted me!) voted for his local candidate to be the SPD MP for the constituency, but gave his second List Vote to the AfD purely as a tactic!

The major difference between SPD supporters doing this and CDU supporters doing it with the FDP is that at least in the latter case the two parties are similar ideologically and in government together, whereas the AfD and the SPD are for the most part at opposite ends of the political spectrum!