The survival of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is a key issue for 2012. His downfall could trigger upheavals in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. Photograph: Sana/EPA

It would be fun to be upbeat, big and bouncy about 2012 – but gloomy facts get in the way. In international affairs, at least, the year ahead looks like a miserable affair, likely to be characterised, in headline terms, by the three nos: no peace, no prosperity, and no progress.

In conflict zones from the Middle East to Africa and Asia, there is scant prospect of relief in 2012 and good grounds for believing that worse is to come. Economically speaking, the monetary and sovereign debt crises affecting Europe and the US threaten to taint global markets further and trigger a general depression.

In plain political terms, resurgent nationalism, self-serving or downright corrupt electoral processes, and a growing emphasis on the politics of fear and envy – contrasting sharply with Barack Obama's circa 2008 politics of hope – will ensure the lack of inspired global leadership evident in 2011 carries over into the coming year.

That said, it's not all doom and gloom. We'll be looking out for some bright spots, too, that may enliven 2012. As the jaunty (and apocryphal) motto of Royal Nepal Airlines put it: "When flying through the Himalayas, the aeroplane pilot should remember the old saying: every cloud has a solid lining."

Electioneering

The year 2012 will be remarkable for the fact that four out of the five permanent members of the UN security council (the US, Russia, China and France, with the exception of Britain) will conduct high-profile elections that will distract attention and curtail their engagement in international affairs.

The prime example is the United States, where Obama will seek a second presidential term in November. Already he is cutting his foreign policy cloth to suit his political ambitions. His recent hyperbolic celebration of American "success" in Iraq, marking the fulfilment of his pledge to end the war and bring the troops home, was aimed directly at middle America voters. Never mind that Iraq's political tensions remain acute. A spate of bombings before Christmas raised fears of renewed sectarian conflict.

Obama's 2012 campaign will probably lack the uplifting motifs of four years ago. He will concentrate on defending his record and portraying the Republicans as a dangerous threat. As matters stand, his most likely opponent is Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, both seasoned machine politicians whose lack of new ideas is matched only by their lack of charisma. With the US economy in the tank and election-year unemployment at its highest for several decades, it's going to be close.

Managed democracy

Elections (of a kind) are also due in China and Russia. Until recent mass street protests over fraudulent parliamentary polls disrupted the plan, Vladimir Putin was expected to be effortlessly enthroned as Russia's president in March. Putin is still odds-on to win – but the shine has gone off his particular red star. A third Putin presidency now presages a period of ever more chauvinistic nationalism and increased domestic confrontation. It is not yet a second Russian revolution – but it warrants careful attention.

In Beijing, the Communist party's October conference, barring unexpected earthquakes, will appoint empty-space apparatchik Xi Jinping as general-secretary and prospective successor to chief empty-space, President Hu Jintao. Continuity will be the watchword.

But China faces increasing internal, economy-related turbulence and a world market whose appetite for its exports has sharply contracted. Its new military-diplomatic assertiveness across the Asia-Pacific region is also producing a backlash among neighbours. Watch out for escalating territorial and resource disputes in the South and East China seas.

French disconnection

Last but not least, the voluble, vituperative French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, will seek a second term in spring polls that pit him against the socialist-lite candidate, François Hollande, centrist François Bayrou, and the far-right standard-bearer, Marine Le Pen.

Sarkozy will run on a France-first, Gaullist style platform, abandoning his previous reformist message. He will be judged primarily on his handling of the eurozone crisis and its negative impact on the French economy and jobs.

Arab spring II

The Arab spring is just over one year old and everywhere the outcome of this unprecedented popular drive for democracy and self-determination, from Yemen and Algeria to Egypt and Libya, remains in doubt. Tunisia offers the only clear success story so far. The ongoing repression of the Syrian uprising represents the nadir.

A key issue for 2012 is the survival, or not, of 2011's leading crimes against humanity contender, President Bashar al-Assad. His downfall could trigger momentous upheavals in Lebanon, where Syria's close ally Hezbollah dominates, in Palestine, where Hamas's grip on Gaza owes much to Syrian support, and in Iraq, where the Sunni minority might seek to emulate Syria's Sunnis in overturning the status quo.

But the biggest impact of a successful Syrian revolution could be on the country's chief non-Arab ally, Iran. Assad's fall would be a big blow for the Tehran regime's regional ambitions and might even encourage Israel to use the opportunity to strike a blow at its main adversary.

A senior US military official said recently that he woke up every morning worrying that Israel might attack Iran's suspect nuclear installations. The US, he said, was talking to Tel Aviv "every day" about the inadvisability of such an attack. But pressure to "do something" about Iran will build through 2012 and could become fatally entangled with US election politics.

More war

2012 will see plenty of other actual or potential conflicts. Border and resource tensions affecting South Sudan, which gained independence from the North in 2011, have raised fears that the world's newest state could be throttled at birth. Post-election disputes in the Democratic Republic of Congo are showing signs of degenerating into general violence. The sporadic murder perpetrated by Boko Haram across the Christian-Muslim faultline in Africa's most populous nation, Nigeria, shows no signs of abating.

In east Asia, the death of Kim Jong-il in North Korea has introduced massive uncertainty amid doubts that the youthful, inexperienced "Dear Successor", Kim Jong-un, is up to the job. In Burma, 2012 may determine whether recent progress towards more inclusive governance is permanent and substantive, or mere window-dressing designed to rehabilitate the regime.

The long endgame in Afghanistan can be expected to continue to be bloody, unsatisfactory and confusing. American "surge" combat troops will begin to leave in 2012, and with Britain also accelerating its departure, a successful security handover to Afghan forces will become ever more crucial – and problematic.

Chronic instability in Pakistan can also be expected to increase as long as the standoff with the US over counter-terrorism tactics continues and an Afghan peace settlement with the Taliban remains elusive. The fear in Pakistan is of another military takeover. A coup could bring an intensification and widening of the Af-Pak conflict.

Money, money, money

In Europe 2011 will be remembered as the year when the euro dream became a nightmare, with Greece in effect in default and several other countries, including Italy, losing their leaders along with their credit ratings as financial panic spread.

2012 could turn out to be even worse as the 26 EU members (excluding Britain) who have agreed a new pact to regulate government budgets and debt fall out over the details. This outcome is not inevitable. But it looks highly likely on past form.

Certainly the markets remain deeply unimpressed by EU salvage efforts to date, and major economies such as France could be next in the firing line. If so, that's the moment when the fabled Franco-German axis could break apart under the strain, spelling the end of the eurozone.

Wild cards

2012 is a big one for Venezuela's president, the ailing firebrand Hugo Chávez, who is expected to seek re-election. Likewise the ageing autocrat, President Robert Mugabe, could call early polls in Zimbabwe, heralding the now depressingly familiar scenario of rigging, violence and intimidation.

A change in the top in Venezuela would have big implications for its tiny ally, the Castro brothers' communist-Catholic Cuba, which will play host to the pope in one of the year's more curious events. The Fidel-Benedict show could make great viewing.

As for the year's biggest environmental issue, climate change, the best that can safely be said is that, unimpeded by puny international negotiating efforts so far, the climate will continue to change.