Russia Fires New RS-12M Topol ICBMBy Joseph Trevithick, The WarZone: “Russia says it has tested yet another new reentry vehicle design on an RS-12M Topol intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM. The development comes amid persistent complaints about America’s ballistic missile defense shield, as well as renewed tensions between the Kremlin and the U.S. government over various agreements limiting the development of nuclear weapons.”

Beijing vs the end of the North Korea threat. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.

BEIJING — A Chinese county along the border with North Korea is constructing refugee camps intended to house thousands of migrants fleeing a possible crisis on the Korean Peninsula, according to an internal document that appears to have been leaked from China’s main state-owned telecommunications company.

Three villages in Changbai County and two cities in the northeastern border province of Jilin, have been designated for the camps, according to the document from China Mobile. The document appeared last week on Weibo, a microblogging site.

The camps are an unusual, albeit tacit, admission by China that instability in North Korea is increasingly likely, and that refugees could swarm across the Tumen River, a narrow ribbon of water that divides the two countries.

For decades, Chinese policy on North Korea has centered on maintaining stability in a neighboring country known for its repression and volatility.

Despite international sanctions and condemnation, the North in recent months has intensified a program to test nuclear weapons and missiles, increasing the potential for internal instability or the chance of an attack by the United States.

Too Many Generals, Not Enough Troops in the Sahel By Kimberly Dozier, The Cipher Brief: “A crisscrossing patchwork of African joint security forces have marshalled in North Africa to stamp out terrorism on the continent, with particular focus on the long and remote borders of the Sahel. But their small size, lack of funds, unclear authorities and competing lines of leadership are more likely to produce confusion than coalesce into an effective blanket of security capable of blocking traffic by vicious and nimble militant groups, and the criminal networks that supply them and profit from the instability they bring.”

Turkey finalizes Russian missile defense buyTurkey and Russia have finalized a $2.5 billion deal to finance the delivery of four S-400 missile defense systems for Ankara. Sergei Chemezov, the CEO of Russia's state-run defense company Rostec, told Russian daily Kommersant that the first delivery is planned for March 2020."It is the first NATO country to acquire our latest air defense system S-400," Chemezov said. Turkey's decision to buy Russian S-400 systems has raised concern among NATO member countries, who worry the move points toward a Turkish military tilt away from the defense bloc.Read More​

Report: Obama stalled investigation into Hezbollah’s drug empireThe Barack Obama administration stalled a US law enforcement effort to uproot drug trafficking networks controlled by the Shiite militia Hezbollah in an apparent effort to avoid disrupting nuclear negotiations with Iran, Politico reports. The investigation is likely to rekindle criticism of the previous administration’s efforts to reduce tensions with Tehran. “This was a policy decision, it was a systematic decision,” said David Asher, a former Defense Department analyst who worked on the probe. “They serially ripped apart this entire effort that was very well supported and resourced, and it was done from the top down.” Other sources, however, suggest Drug Enforcement Administration investigators and other critics have little idea why the probe was stymied.Read More​

Russia to expand military presence in Syria basesRussia will start expanding its naval and air bases in Syria, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigusaid on Tuesday. The move comes as part of a deal signed with Damascus in January and ratified by parliament to ensure Russian access to Syrian waters and ports. “Last week the Commander-in-Chief [President Vladimir Putin] approved the structure and the bases in Tartus and in Hmeimim [air base]. We have begun forming a permanent presence there,” RIA news agency quoted Shoigu as saying. Russia will use the Tartus port for 49 years with the possibility of extending the agreement, and utilize the air base in Hmeimim indefinitely.Meanwhile, Chief of the General Staff Army Gen. Valery Gerasimovsaid Wednesday that next year’s priority for the Russian military in Syria will be "wiping out An-Nusra forces." Gerasimov noted that "some members of this terrorist organization operate in de-escalation zones … therefore they must be eliminated." Another priority will be political settlement in Syria, Gerasimov added.Read More

Trump’s North Korea Policy? Tillerson, McMaster Diverge By Brian Garrett-Glaser, The Cipher Brief: “Conflicting signals about whether the U.S. is prepared to resume talks with North Korea raise questions about what conditions, if any, might be imposed and even how unified the administration of President Donald Trump really is on undertaking this kind of initiative.”

Bomber targets New York City transit system with improvised deviceAkayed Ullah, a 27-year-old man from Bangladesh, attempted to detonate an improvised explosive device in midtown Manhattan earlier today. No one was killed in the failed bombing, but several people suffered minor wounds. Jihadists have repeatedly targeted New York City since the 9/11 hijackings.

New York Port Authority AttackThe Bangladeshi man accused of detonating an explosive device in an underground passageway near Port Authority Bus Terminal on Monday is a legal U.S. resident who was angry about “the plight of Muslims” in the Middle East, according to a senior law-enforcement official. - Wall Street Journal

The arrest of a Bangladeshi immigrant accused of making a homemade pipe bomb and setting it off in the New York subway system has led to discussion of the nation’s immigration system, with President Donald Trump repeating his refrain that it needs to be overhauled in favor of more restrictions. - Associated Press

Editorial: A terrorist set off a bomb in New York’s subway Monday morning, and the worst thing he did was blow up his own crotch. That may be why you don’t see the cries and arguments that you usually see in the wake of terrorist attacks. This relative silence doesn’t reflect a lack of vigilance, in our mind. It reflects a proper proportion of vigilance. - Washington Examiner​Editorial: For years after the 9/11 destruction of the World Trade Center towers, it was a point of civic pride among New Yorkers and their stellar police department that no serious terrorist attack had succeeded again in America’s foremost urban target. Now that may be changing, which raises questions about whether the post 9/11 status quo needs to be re-examined. - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Army Had a Special 'Suicide Squad' Ready to Strike Russian Forces By Michael Peck, The National Interest: “Had the Cold War turned hot, there would have been no escape for the U.S. garrison in West Berlin. Marooned in a city more than 100 miles inside Communist East Germany, the U.S. Berlin Brigade—and the British and French garrisons as well—would certainly have been overwhelmed by Soviet and East German troops.”

Leon Aron | US News & World ReportLast week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he will seek a fourth term as president in the upcoming March 2018 Russian elections. In a US News & World Report op-ed from this past July, Leon Aron contended that Putin’s win in 2018 “is a given,” but how Putin must win is also important. “Putin does not want to resort to electoral fraud and thus risk protests all over Russia. No, he needs, and without doubt wants, fireworks, thrills, the outpouring of popular gratitude and adulation. He needs a national-patriotic military triumph, humiliating the enemy (NATO, the US) and adding to the glory of the lost empire.”Revisit the piece here.

Also, stay tuned for the release of Aron’supcoming monograph, “Recovering the Empire,” which will be released in March 2018 to coincide with the Russian presidential election. The monograph will consist of 12 essays by various regional and military experts exploring the motivations behind a potential attack on six post-Soviet counties, the Kremlin’s criteria for choosing the target countries, and a country-by-country analysis of putative venues and modes of potential Russian aggression.Get a sneak peek here.

Analysis: With the victory of President Vladimir V. Putin assured, the real contest, they say, is the bare-knuckled, no-holds-barred fight to determine who or what comes after him by the end of his next six years in office, in 2024. - New York Times

With Russia, Try Try AgainBy Michael Nordeen, RealClearDefense: “Despite this deplorable state of affairs, a responsible step to improve U.S.-Russia relations would be to negotiate recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and eliminate related sanctions in exchange for a series of small wins that benefit the U.S., Russia, and the global order.”

Getting the Best Out of Moscow By Daniel Hoffman, The Cipher Brief: “While partnership with Russia on Syria has too many pitfalls to justify the strategic risk to the U.S., the Trump administration should consider three areas for collaboration.”

Assessment of the Lone Wolf Terrorist Concept By Linda Schlegel, Divergent Options “The label “lone wolf” is attached easily to an individual attacker by politicians and the media, but must be used with care. These actors do not perceive themselves as acting alone but as part of a group. This group is increasingly found in the virtual realm, begging the question of whether traditional notions of membership in terrorist groups is still a valid indication of whether an attack was perpetrated by a lone wolf or not.”

CALLING CHINA'S BLUFF ON TAIWANHow Trump and Taiwan are calling China's bluffGary J. Schmitt | AEIdeas
In the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act, there are a number of notable measures regarding US defense cooperation with Taiwan. These provisions are long overdue. For the past quarter century, successive administrations have dawdled or simply refused to send Taiwan the weapons and systems needed to strengthen Taiwan's own defense and its strategic value to the US.

A Chinese county along the border with North Korea is constructing refugee camps intended to house thousands of migrants fleeing a possible crisis on the Korean Peninsula, according to an internal document that appears to have been leaked from China’s main state-owned telecommunications company. - New York Times

Opinion: Recognizing the seriousness of the growing threat to the Asia-Pacific region and the United States, it was a welcome sign that President Donald Trump recently reclassified North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism. This designation puts North Korea under increasingly harsher sanctions to reinforce the nonnegotiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. - Defense News

Opinion: For decades, the relationship between China and the West rested on illusion and pretense. Western politicians fooled themselves into thinking that the Chinese system, centrally directed and authoritarian, would in time resemble their own, open and democratic. - Wall Street Journal

Iran eyes Caspian Sea pact with RussiaIran and the four other nations bordering the Caspian Sea — Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — have agreed to ban foreign military forces from entering the sea under a convention to be debated at a two-day summit in Moscow. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the Moscow gathering could lead to a ministerial summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, aimed at finalizing the Caspian’s legal status.Read More

Venezuela Cryptocurrency Scheme: No Way Out of Its CrisesVenezuela is being strangled by hyperinflation, joblessness, insolvency, corruption, and sanctions imposed by the US government. It has also been suspended from the South American trading bloc Mercosur over the undemocratic practices of the Nicolas Maduro government, among other reasons. To loosen...