A few initial short thoughts on the murder of the Russian Ambassador to Ankara

Okay, so tonight we have the name of the assassin, it is Mevlut Mert Aydintas, a 22 year old policeman who had been recently fired following the anti-Gulenist crackdown of Erdogan against the forces which had attempted to overthrow him recently. We also have a very useful video of the murder.

That video of the attack also shows something very important: the only shots fired are those fired by the assassin. See for yourself:

What this means is one of two things:

Version 1: there was nobody in charge of security at this exhibition

Version 2: the room where this murder happened was considered ‘safe/sterile’ because it was inside an outer security perimeter which we don’t see in this video.

I find version 2 far more likely. That would also explain why and how Mevlut Mert Aydintas so easily got it: he simply flashed his police ID and was let through.

When such an event occurs it is also important to ask cui bono – whom does it benefit?

Erdogan? No.

I see absolutely no imaginable reason why Erdogan would want the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara, but I can easily imagine a long list of reasons why he would not want that to happen at all. Some will correctly say that the fall of Aleppo is a humiliating defeat for Turkey and Erdogan, and I agree. But I would remind everybody that Erdogan clearly had a deal going with the Russians and the Iranians when he moved his forces across the border and occupied northern Syria. There is *no way* he would have risked such a move against the will of Moscow and Tehran. So what was this deal? We will probably never know, but it clearly included a provision which limited Turkey’s actions to a narrow strip in the north. If that hypothesis is correct, then Aleppo would have to be considered outside the “Turkish sphere of interest” in Syria, at least by the tripartite Turkish-Iranian-Russian understanding. Did Erdogan know that Aleppo would fall and would fall so fast? Probably not. It appears that Erdogan got outmaneuvered by the Russians and the Iranians. But he most definitely had better options to retaliate against the liberation of Aleppo than to have the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara. The fact is that the Turks did precious little when Aleppo was liberated, at most they helped the Russian evacuate part of the “good terrorists”.

Even if Erdogan is a lunatic, he is smart enough to understand that if he has the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara NATO will do nothing to protect him and that the Russians can fire a cruise missile right into his bedroom window. Erdogan might be crazy, but he is clearly not *that* crazy.

Finally, let’s remember the disastrous consequences for Turkey following the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 and the fact that, by numerous corroborated accounts, the Russian intelligences services saved Erdogan, probably literally, by warning him of the coup against him.

So, for all these reasons, Erdogan is not on my current list of suspects. Never say never, new facts might come to light, especially with a maniac like Erdogan, but right now I will assume that he has nothing to do with what happened.

Daesh & Co? Maybe.

Well, it is rather obvious that the Daesh & Co. had an extremely long list of reasons to want to kill a high profile Russian official. So yes, they sure had the motive. Considering how successful radical Islamist extremists have been at penetrating the Turkish deep (and not so deep) state, Daesh and Co. also had the means. As for the opportunity, the video above clearly shows that not only did Mevlut Mert Aydintas have the time to shoot the Russian Ambassador many times (I counted 9 shots), but after that he still had the time to just stand there and scream all sorts of slogans about Syria, Aleppo and God. While we don’t know all the details yet, this is already very strong evidence that security at this event was dismal.

Gulen, the CIA, Obama & Co? Maybe.

Yes, they are also on my list of suspects. The Gulenists have nothing to lose, the CIA has gone crazy with anger and fear at the election of Trump, and the Obama Administration is full of angry, offended, deeply vindicative and otherwise plain nasty characters who would love to trigger a new crisis between Russia and Turkey or make the Russian pay in some way for humiliating the AngloZionist Empire in Aleppo. Keep in mind that this is exactly how the CIA always kills foreign dignitaries: by subcontracting the murder to a local fanatic so as to preserve what they call “plausible deniability”.

During the Cold War the Soviets and the Americans had an unwritten understanding that “we don’t kill each other”. It was never formally mentioned or otherwise acknowledged, but I assure you that it was real: neither side wanted an open ended escalation of assassinations and counter-assassinations. But today’s CIA is a pathetic joke compared to the CIA of the Cold War, and with hodge-podge of mediocre dimwits now in the Executive branch I would not put it past some idiot in Langley to approve of the murder of a Russian Ambassador. Besides, if the Americans were crazy and reckless enough to attempt to overthrow Erdogan, why would they not try to murder a Russian Ambassador?

What about the lone gunman hypothesis?

Well, it is impossible to prove a negative. Mevlut Mert Aydintas did lose his job in a recent purge, he did have police credentials and his actions on the video seem to be a textbook example of the kind of fanatical behavior a lone nutcase would display. So yes, it is possible that Mevlut Mert Aydintas acted alone. After all, all he needed was a gun and a police ID. Let’s see what the Turks, and the Russians, find out about him. Still, I doubt it. That kind of personality is usually identified by state sponsoring terrorism and then activated when needed. My gut tells me that he did not just act alone. Somebody probably used Mevlut Mert Aydintas.

Painful questions

Here I really hope that I am wrong, but if I want to be honest I have to admit that I am completely unable to find an excuse of the lax security around Ambassador Andrey Karlov. And I am not referring to the Turks here, I am referring to the Russian security services. Here is why.

Even if we assume that the Turks had told the Russians that they had established a ‘safe/sterile’ perimeter around the exhibit and that the general public would not be let in, the footage shows what appears to be only a few guests, there is no excuse for the Russian not to have at least one bodyguard in the immediate proximity to the Ambassador. Turkey is not only a country at war, but Russia is a party to that war, the Takfiris have made a very long list of threats against Russia and, finally, Turkey is a country which has suffered from terrorism for years and which has just suffered a bloody attempted coup. In a country like that a top official like an Ambassador should have been protected by an entire group of bodyguards, but in this case there was clearly nobody. Oh sure, the Russian can blame the Turks for having set up a crappy perimeter, but as professionals they should know that the Turks are already having extreme difficulties in dealing with their own terrorists and that following the massive purges the security services are in a state of chaos. Would one bodyguard have made a difference?

Yes, possibly. Probably in fact.

From the video it appears that Mevlut Mert Aydintas was standing about 5 meter behind Ambassador Karlov when he opened fire. Apparently, not a single of the shots hit the Ambassador’s head. If Ambassador Karlov had been wearing a flack jacket or any other type of body armor he would have probably survived that first volley of bullets (unless one hit the cervicals). One single bodyguard could then have easily killed Mevlut Mert Aydintas and evacuated the ambassador to safety. Evidently Karlov was not wearing any kind of body armor that day. Why? He did not have a single bodyguard next to him. Why? No Russian voices are heard on the video, so there appears to have been no Russian security anywhere near the ambassador. Why?

Normally, ambassadors are a very easy target. Everybody knows them, their routine is public and, contrary to what many seem to think, most of them have no security detail. I am absolutely amazed that more ambassadors are not killed regularly. In high risk countries, however, ambassadors are normally protected, especially ambassadors representing countries involved in a war or who are likely targets of terrorist attacks. True, as a rule, the Russians, including diplomats, tend to be more brave/reckless (pick the term) than their western counterparts: they don’t scare easy and they like to show that they are not afraid. But that kind of attitude needs to be kept in check by professionals.

Frankly, it makes me angry to see how many Russians have been killed by that lax attitude towards personal risk and security. Yes, it is very noble to be courageous, but to die killed by a manic is also plain dumb. I would feel much better if Russian officials and politicians would be a little less courageous and a little more careful. Because what happened today begs the question: who will it be the next time?

Conclusions

What happened today is a tragedy made twice as painful by the fact that it could probably have been avoided. The Turkish security services will probably arrest overnight pretty much anybody and everybody Mevlut Mert Aydintas has ever met, and they will get lots of confessions. I am pretty sure that they will share a lot of that data with the Russians, if only to show how sorry they are. Alas, both the Turks and the Russians have an long tradition of secrecy and we might never find out who, if anybody, really was behind Mevlut Mert Aydintas.

The only thing I am sure of is that Putin will do nothing harsh regardless of who is behind this murder. If it is the Takfiris, then the people involved will die in the next couple of years. If the CIA is involved, however, the Russians will be much more careful and might chose to act in a very different way, possibly through the next Administration. The murder of Ambassador Karlov will not succeed in derailing the Russian and Iranian efforts at getting some kind of a regional solution to the war in Syria, nor will it change the Russian determination to prevent the AngloZionst Empire of turning Syrian into yet another Takfiristan.

As for Russia and Turkey, as long as Erdogan remains in power they will continue to try to collaborate against the odds and in spite of deep and fundamental differences. Neither Russia nor Turkey, which have fought each other in twelve wars, have any other option.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world

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It was up for a while, but Youtube censors many videos, especially political things it wants to repress. Youtube is google is evil.

Part of Russia’s IT initiatives should be a major video hosting and download service easily accessible to everyone (including non-Russian speakers). Sadly, RUtube is not adequate for this. Much of the internet does not function well at all, especially for people with older or cheaper systems.

The video of the assassination is available on many other pages, however.

So I am not alone.
If the NATO is the enemy number one and the terrorism number two for Russia, as according to the Russian minister of defense Sergei Shoigu, then suspect number one is a Natoist country.

Beware of any kind of the Natoists, no matter what country they are from, no matter what is their name.

The Nato is the enemy number one, not only for Russia than for every country that wants to be sovereign.
The Nato is threat to the world peace.
It is the most reactionary, warmongering organization in last 5000 years, since the existence of mankind.

Yesterday extra sanctions, extra blacklisting of 15 Russian individuals and companies by the Nato countries [ USA and EU ] and killing the Russian ambassador goes hand by hand.
Who doesn’t see it is blind.
Russia is at war.
These are last moves of Obama against Russia, he is behaving like Caligula, after him can be the end of the world.
Only D. Trump can save the world.

After reading your comment I would suggest that you would be better received on MSM sites. I perceive your posting as an attempt to cause disruption and anger. I would definitely class this as ‘trollish’ behavior on this site. The next posting of this type will not receive a ‘courtesy’ notice but will go directly to ‘trash’ …. mod-hs

After all, this was the lede sentences of a Washington Post story from Oct. 9: “There seems to be no way for the international community to stop the ongoing war crimes being committed by the Syrian regime and its Russian allies, especially in Aleppo,” the newspaper reported.

“But by brazenly flouting international law, leaders and rank-and-file officials in both countries are opening themselves up to future justice in multiple ways.”

Justice has been served.

After watching the death of Karlov, I could not help but remember the case of Ernst vom Rath, the Nazi ambassador to France, who was gunned down inside his consulate by a Jewish student in 1938.

Like Karlov, Rath was the public face of atrocity — in this case, Adolf Hitler’s genocide, anti-Semitism and coming global aggression.

Was Rath an innocent victim? Certainly not. He had not only defended Hitler’s oppression of the Jews as “necessary” for Germany to flourish, but he stood idly by as Hitler devoured Europe and murdered its innocents. Rath could have stood up to the Nazi leadership when it would have mattered most, but he did not.

To be fair, Mod, Xe’s link is to a Zero Hedge article expressing astonishment and disgust at the quote given, which comes from The New York Daily News. So it is possible (s)he intended to endorse the disgust rather than the original sentiment, but did it very clumsily.

According to Russian sources, the Zaslon special forces unit which normally provides protection for Russian diplomats abroad was not present in Turkey, since Turkish authorities kept refusing all requests to allow this small sized group of bodyguards into Turkish territory.

So yes, ambassador Karlov was killed, because he had no Russian bodyguards and he didn’t have them, because Turks wouldn’t let him have them – despite very clear presence of numerous terrorist threats in Turkey.

I’ve just seen that photo of His Excellency’s coffin, with his widow and family. And Lavrov, rightly-so as he sent Andrey Karlov to Ankara. Then I wonder if Lavrov was the target of the hit, payback for out-playing the State Department?

Following the Turkish foreign minister’s claim that the CIA/ Gulenist (FETO) org was behind the assassination, strenuous denials from Kirby of US involvement.

Ambassador Karlov was in talks with the Syrian ‘opposition’, which, following the liberation of Aleppo, is hardly going to please some people, who have invested so much in the destruction of Syria.

I would say that the Isrzeli/Saudi/French/British component is not at all happy with how things are going, and has equally strong motivation to torpedo Russian/Turkish/Iranian ‘guarantees.’

Are we seeing a gradual honing in on an essentially transnational criminal mafia – in which corrupt elements in various ‘security/intel’ services ( Mossad, Mi5, CIA, Pentagon, Saudi, French Securite) – are emerging from the camouflage of state-actors?

Because none of what is going on in Syria is the result of any due process – it is a criminal and illegal covert project by rogue banksters and others – an international mafia who should be facing trial for war-crimes.

Except that they are not ‘corrupt elements,’ they are doing the bidding (often unwittingly) of the real powers in these states, the ones who also manipulate the legitimately elected governments in their own interests.

The Russians, Turks and Iranians have come up with a joint strategy for the Syrian problem:

i) Syrian national borders are sacrosanct
ii) Syria should remain a secular non-theocratic state
iii) All three will fight al Qaeda and al Nusra
iv) Al three will mediate between Assad and the Syrian opposition.

What is missing? There is absolutely zero mention of the US and EU. They have totally lost control of the situation other than via terrorist proxies. That in itself would be sufficient cause for the Anglo-Zionists to try to block the tripartite meeting. How? – by splitting Turkey and Russia. In detail, murder a Russian diplomat and point the finger at Turkey, directly or indirectly.

In terms of the lack of security, for the last 10 years, Turkey has not allowed armed foreign forces to guard foreign diplomats. Security is down to normal Embassy or other staff. This is now likely to change for Russian diplomats at least. We will see.

The murder of the Russian medics in Aleppo is related. These acts are an indication of the desperation of the Anglo-Zionists. They need Russia to lash out so they can impose full financial sanctions against Russia and by implication, anyone who associates with it. That would lead to the collapse of Russian support for Syria, for the Novorossians and the collapse of the Russian economy, or at least create conditions for internal actions against Putin.

One major question – how far up the Russian hierarchy are the Anglo-Zionists prepared to go? Given the likes of Lavrov are protected by seriously polite people, at some point the action is only possible by state actors.

Remember when American regime officials like State Dept. mouthpiece John Kirby and former CIA supremo Mike Morrell made threats about “killing Russians” in retaliation for Russia’s military intervention against America’s beloved moderate jihadists in Syria?

This assassination of Russian ambassador Andrei Karlov in Turkey by a Turkish police officer screaming revenge for the defeat of these moderate jihadists in Syria is purely a wild coincidence.

And anyone suggesting that America was ultimately behind this state terrorist murder of Ambassador Karlov is obviously a purveyor of Fake News(tm) and probably a hateful conspiracy theorist as well. ;-)

Thanks, I found the truth hidden down in these 224 comments.
Police researches have showed actual fraud was done by the least suspected person in 70% of the cases.
The West are not the only one who can make tricks.

On a point raised earlier: if you know what calibre the assassin’s gun was, easily available ballistics tables should tell you whether or not the rounds he fired could/would have exited the Ambassador’s torso.

On another: seeking a sane, normal trade relationship with the West has nothing to do with being hijacked by the empire. Putin is not Yelsin.

The excellent points raised that make the official explanation seem suspicious (including the suspiciously high quality video documentation of an event that would barely merit two or three paragraph coverage on an inside page of a newspaper) indicate — IMO — that a very deep game indeed is being played here. Not some simple good guys vs. bad guys event.

This has the hallmark of the blunt force trauma gang = murder inc = mossad. It was a desperate and unsophisticated attempt by the baby killers to derail the now inevitable liberation of Palestine. Just like the defeat of Hitlery – all the money in the world can no longer guarantee a win for the occultists. Once Trump is POTUS it will be game over and for all his friendliness to the chosen he will ram a deal down their throats.
Turkey has no benefit in the murder of the Russian ambassador – Ergodan the slime master has now jumped ship on the ME Syria greater israel farce. The Turks and the mercs received their money and now too bad for the zionists – there is no money back guarantee. The reality is that the SAA, Hezbollah and Iran pushed back. The Russians helped but the defeat of the mercs was inevitable when the SAA did not fold and could not be bought off back in 2011.
Mevlut may have been from central casting but he certainly was not lunatic leading man material – that alone shows that the occultist are behind the sloppy theatrics.

Is there no chance he was actually assigned as security to this event? Just from where he was standing, the lack of other security response. I know they say he was off duty and showed his badge, but it would have been more embarrassing for Turkey had he been the protection.

Second, I wonder if the impact of this would have played differently had Russia vetoed the UN observation resolution in the UNSC? That may have been the goal. The two events together would have played well I think for a “look at arrogant Russia, scorning diplomacy then getting shot for it” narrative.

Third, the western media response in not covering leaders’ condemnation, and the muted condemnation of the assassination in general has been despicable. Allowing this to play in the media as implicit justice shows how twisted Al Jazeera et al have got with their anti-Russia narrative, to the point where ambassadors are considered fair game.

A senior NATO counter terrorism official has been found dead in his car about 140km from where he worked in Belgium and about 100 km from where he lived. He was shot in the back of the head, using his own gun that he normally kept in the glove compartment of his car. Hmmmm!

My prime suspect is Erdogan. Here is why. He is negotiating with Russian and Iran on Syria, possibly annexing Jarablus and surroundings. He is also moving Turkment from Iraq and other places and settling them there. Fact 1.

Fact 2: Turkey prides itself with state traditions. They often apply the same strategy/technique to problems. Turkey has never given an inch in any negotiation. The only way you negotiate is through sheer force.

Fact 3: History lesson on Hatay/Antakya. Ataturk organized a fake assassination/raid to the negotiation using his step daughter; only to turn around and tell the negotiator to either leave Hatay alone or he would get killed by his crazies and the war would prolong.

Erdogan can now very well make the same argument. He knew from day-1 he couldn’t keep Aleppo anymore. The only reason he dragged it out was because he has to also please Qatar and KSA.

I think you might want to take another look at the photos connected to this murder, to re-evaluate what has happened. As Mr. Lake has said, the camera man kept filming, a if nothing very unusual had happened.

Photos of the ambassador show no blood from any angle. A bit unusual considering he was shot 8-9 times and fell on a white floor. Also, look at the ambassador’s hands – he has got both thumbs placed on the middle finger. Does this seem a normal outcome of being shot? You can only do that deliberately.

The photo of the dead terrorist is such a disaster, it must be intentional. Consider:
* He has ‘blood’ on his shirt but they forgot to snip a hole in his shirt.
* The wall is all shot up but the entry holes are larger than exit holes.
* Fragments of wall plaster are all over the scene. Note to production crew – plaster fragments DO NOT rebound into the room where shots have been fired.
* A plaster fragment is seen lying on top of the terrorist’s pants. You may ask, “how did it get there?” It could easily be under him if plaster did rebound back into the room, which it doesn’t. The only way for it to be on top of him is for someone to place it there.
* A pistol magazine is seen with its spring half in and half out of the magazine well. This is only possible if someone gently removed the magazine floor plate, carefully relieved spring tension and laid it on the floor. In any other scenario, the spring would leap out and fly 10-15 feet away.
* The terrorist is making a different hand gesture than the ambassador. but he’s making the same gesture with each hand. In fact, he’s got perfect right-left symmetry in his upper body, just like the ambassador had. Does it seem likely a man shot in the front would fall in the same way a man shot in the back had done? Or that either of them would think of their hands in such a critical moment?

I conclude that no actors have been harmed during production of this film and that the Russians and Turks cooperated to send a subtle message that the receiver would surely understand. I’ll leave it to others to interpret the message.

Dear Saker, with all due respect, that video is very suspicious. It just doesn’t look real. Not a speck of blood to be seen. The ambassador falls straight down instead of crashing into the podium due to the force of numerous bullets hitting him from behind. He lands perfectly flat on his back with arms spread as he would if he would have been acting. Again, falling mostly in the direction of the shots instead of away from the shots. He lies perfectly still immediately, and totally silent. No moaning in agony or writhing in pain which seems impossible if this were real. No blood! No bodyguard. No security. The camera conveniently loses focus just when you need it most to see what is actually happening. It reminds me too much of the fake live Virginia reporter shooting. I hope I’m wrong. I like Mr. Putin and hope he’s an honest person. God knows, none of our politicians are. It’s discouraging to think that he would tolerate such nonsense.

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