There are no can’t-miss, once-in-a-decade talents on this Top 10 list, but there are a number of players who have the opportunity to really explode in 2010. You also have to love the fact that all 10 players on the list were drafted or originally signed by the Red Sox organization. You can’t fake good scouting and development.

The organization faced a difficult, and well-document, problem in ’09 when Kelly expressed a desire to hit and play shortstop. A compromise was made and the talented prospect spent the year as a two-way player. After hitting just .224/.305/.313 with a 29% strikeout rate in low-A, though, Kelly gave in and announced he will be a full-time pitcher in 2010. It’s a good thing, too, because the right-hander showed a lot of promise for a player whose heart was not 100% on the mound last season. In low-A ball, he allowed 32 hits in 48.1 innings, while showing outstanding control with a walk rate of just 1.68 BB/9. He also did not allow a home run while posting a FIP of 2.14. That number jumped a bit with his promotion to high-A (3.33) but Kelly still showed excellent control (1.35 BB/9) with a modest strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. With just 46.2 innings of experience above low-A, Kelly should head back to high-A in 2010, but he could see double-A before the end of the season.

Westmoreland’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his collar bone, but the outfielder solidified himself as the organization’s best hitter… in just 223 at-bats. The 19 year old hit .296/.401/.484 and showed good power potential with an ISO of .188. He also displayed patience at the plate with a walk rate of 14.2%, far exceeding what you’d expect from a player his age. His strikeout rate was a little high, but his future power output could eventually justify the number. Westmoreland was also a force on the base paths by stealing 19 bases in as many attempts. Sure it was short-season ball but a .427 wOBA is impressive no matter how you slice it.

Tazawa’s mad mix of pitches cut a swath through double-A line-ups but the Japanese import found the going a little tougher in triple-A and the Majors (albeit in a smaller sample size). The right-hander allowed just 80 hits in 98.0 innings in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 8.08 K/9. He was also aided by solid control (2.39 BB/9) and some luck (.277 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). In six MLB appearances, Tazawa allowed 43 hits in 25.1 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.62 K/9. His ground-ball rate in the Majors of 24.5% was ugly, and hitters had little trouble with his 90 mph fastball (-2.54 runs “above” average per 100 pitches). Despite the bump in the road, Tazawa is still learning, as well as adjusting to life in North America, so his potential remains high.

Reddick got off to a solid start in ’09 at double-A and hit .277/.352/.520 in 256 at-bats. He showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .242. His base running, after nabbing 14 bases in 17 ties in ’08, was almost non-existent as he was successful just five times in 10 attempts. Reddick’s numbers were terrible in 18 triple-A games and poor in 27 MLB games. His walk rate was good in double-A at 10.5%, but it dropped to 7.6% in triple-A and 3.2% in the Majors. On the plus side, six of his 10 MLB hits were for extra bases (59 at-bats). Reddick will certainly receive more seasoning in triple-A in 2010 but he should be ready to compete for a full-time gig in 2011… if there’s an opportunity.

It was an ugly, ugly year for Anderson… and his struggles were well-documented. After hitting .316 in 41 double-A games in ’08, the first-base prospect spent the entire season at that level but hit just .233/.328/.345 with an ISO of .112 in 447 at-bats. There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with). Anderson’s wOBA of .315 was .060 below his previous low of .374 at low-A in ’07. As a slow-footed player whose game requires plus power output, he needs to get that ground-ball rate up from 54.8%. Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.

Pimentel’s ’09 numbers do not wow. He allowed a lot of hits: 135 in 117.2 innings, but he put a lot of pitches in the strike zone (2.22 BB/9) at a level where players pretty much hack at everything. He also had some bad luck with a BABIP of .350. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.88 K/9 and his FIP was OK at 3.62. Pimentel’s ground-ball rate of 39.5% needs to improve if he’s going to survive the upper levels of the system. He turns 20 in February so time is on his side.

Simply getting back to the baseball diamond after dealing with a cancer scare would have been impressive enough, but Rizzo went out and turned himself into one of the best prospects in the system. The first baseman hit .298/.365/.494 in 245 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.371/.420. Rizzo’s power output dropped from .196 to .125 ISO with the move, but his walk rate improved (9.1 to 10.9%), as did his strikeout rate (24.5 to 19.5%). Rizzo, though, was aided by some nifty BABIPs of .364 and .354. Although he held his own against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, his OPS was .862 against righties and just .721 against southpaws. He should open 2010 back in high-A but could move up to double-A as he prepares to breathe down Anderson’s neck.

A personal favorite of mine, Gibson received his second straight year of short-season ball and looked over-matched in a brief 14-game trial in low-A ball. In short-season ball, Gibson hit .290/.395/.380 and had a .386 wOBA in 255 at-bats. He showed good patience for a future top-of-the-order MLB hitter with a walk rate of 12.9% and his strikeout rate was reasonable at 16.5%. He’s performed poorly against southpaws for two straight seasons (.566, .621 OPS). After nabbing 14 steals in as many tries in ’08, Gibson was successful in 28 of his 33 tries in ’09. Defensively, he’s expected to move off of shortstop, which takes a bite out of his value.

I’m a little more bearish on Kalish than a lot of evaluators because he has yet to do anything really spectacular in four seasons. The outfielder had a nice year in ’09 and he hit .304/.434/.513 in 115 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, his numbers normalized a bit with a line of .271/.341/.440. At the senior level, he posted a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of 22.3%, which is a tad high given his career power numbers. I will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers. After stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts in ’09, he could develop into a 20-20 player in the Majors if everything clicks. With everything said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out in a big way in 2010 and made me look foolish for doubting him.

The knock on Bowden is that he’s not flashy. But there is something to be said for consistent and reliable. Pitching at double-A or higher since ’07, Bowden has posted solid numbers, although his FIP broke 4.00 for the first time while pitching for triple-A (4.08). Even so, he took advantage of some luck (.262 BABIP) and allowed just 106 hits in 126.1 innings, while showing OK control (3.35 BB/9) and a modest strikeout rate (6.27 K/9). He’ll do himself a favor if he can get the ball down in the zone more often and increase his ground-ball rate from the 31.1% he posted in triple-A. Called up to Boston to eat up some innings in the bullpen, Bowden did not have much fun – or luck. His 9.56 ERA was softened by his 5.16 FIP and he posted a LOB% rate of 48.4.

30 Responses to “Boston Red Sox: Top 10 Prospects”

Not sure how Kalish ranks below Anderson given he performed better in Double-A (and MUCH better once he got used to the level after his first month in AA) plays higher up the defensive spectrum, and Anderson’s season raises serious doubts that he’ll ever have enough bat to play at 1B. I get your reasons for being skeptical about Kalish, but you may be the last person around who’s still this high on Anderson. He’s fallen almost completely out of consideration for me.

I’m probably one of the few remaining Lars Anderson believers, but I’m optimistic for a 21 y/o AA player who maintained impressive plate discipline despite season long struggles. Even going into this year, his knock was whether or not gap power would begin to translate into home runs as he aged. After reading an interview on Prospectus with Anderson, I still feel he’s a cerebral enough player to move beyond the bump in the road that is the ’09 season.

I would be able to write off Anderson’s performance last year as a blip had I not seen him in spring training games a few times last year. It was on TV, but still I thought he looked very stiff and mechanical at the plate. Just wasn’t doing a good job of allowing his tools to work. We’ll see, but I think he had a lot of adjustments to make.

I’ll be honest, outside of Kelly/Westmoreland at the top and Bowden at 10, the other seven guys could have gone in many different orders, as each has some positives and negatives that excite/worry me… As for Anderson, I think he’s shown that his ceiling is higher than Kalish’s, which is why I kept him so high… I am not a big fan of giving up on prospects quickly, unless they 100% prove that they’re on the way down. I’ll ride it out a bit longer.

Would you please give us similar summaries of the guys Boston shipped to Cleveland for Victor Martinez? I know Masterson well, but I would like to know what the Sox gave up in Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price.

Good list, but Tazawa at 3? I think he projects as a decent 3, but I have a hard time believing somebody like Josh Reddick doesn’t have more upside (to the extent you can compare apples and oranges anyway).

I’m surprised not to see Jose Iglesias on this list. It seems that offensive potential was mainly used in constructing this list, but from what I understand, there is some potential there. He is widely regarded as having elite defensive skills already at a position that demands it. As we saw with Alex Gonzalez at the end of the year, an elite defensive shortstop can make a 4th or 5th starter look better then they are, though not the other way around. While Bowden does have a chance to stick in the majors, I cant imagine he could be anything more than a back-end starter or long man. That alone for me puts Iglesias on the list over Bowden, and I feel that Iglesias should be in the top 5.

That may be the system in place, but it’s still a cop out. Looking back in ten years, isn’t it going to seem a little silly that Strasburg was never on a FanGraphs top prospect list? BP used to do the same thing, not including prospects with no pro stats and they ended up with incomplete prospects lists that, for example, wouldn’t include Josh Beckett.

You obviously won’t be lumping HS freshmen on the same list as AAAers, but if you’re going to draw a line, “property of a major league organization” is a more sensible place to draw one than “drafted/signed at least a year ago.”

It’s a cautionary tale on overhyping prospects that compiled great statistics in Lancaster’s ballpark. It made Coors look like Petco Park. You can’t take any of those numbers seriously. Now that the Sox have smartly moved their high-A team to Salem, we can get a better read on their high A-ball prospects.

Why does CHONE project Lars to have 400+ PA’s in the majors next year? I’m probably missing something but I thought it projects only mlb level stats, and I can’t really see why Anderson would even play in the majors at all next year.

I heard a rumor that when these players get to MLB, they will be asked to do various things in the field while wearing a glove on one hand. Is this true? If so, you might want to factor in the possibility that some of them (e.g., Rizzo) are reportedly terrific at it, while others (e.g., Anderson) aren’t.

Please take into account Kalish’s well documented struggles the first two months in AA before becoming one of the better offensive players in the EL the last half of the season. Throwing out a full season triple slash line with a side of K and BB rates and passing it off as analysis is just sloppy. As for the rest of his evaluation, the “nothing spectacular” comment is just annoying when there’s no mention of a broken hamate bone he suffered in ’07 – an injury that effectively zaps power before fully healed.

Interestingly, our new writer, a big time Red Sox fan himself, agrees that we should wait and see on Lars Anderson. Here’s his take on Lars for our readers. Keep in mind we have a fantasy baseball spinn on prospects:

Yankee and Red Sox prospects are frequently victims of their own success and that may have been the case with Anderson in 2009. After a breakout 2008 season that had many Sox fans naming him the heir-apparent to David Ortiz, Anderson struggled mightily last year, hitting just .233-9-51 in Double-A with an abysmal .345 slugging percentage.

While many Boston fans will undoubtedly now write the young lefty off, his skill set remains impressive. If healthy, Anderson still has huge fantasy potential. Fully capable of hitting 30-plus home runs with a high average, Anderson’s upside is that of a Carlos Delgado-type player worthy of being drafted in the top 5 rounds of a draft. Those in dynasty leagues should hold on to Anderson and hope for a rebound in 2010. If he gets his career back on track, they will be handsomely rewarded.

I think Kelly’s on a much faster track than you’re giving him credit for. The talk this offseason has been of starting him at AA next year, with an outside shot at the bigs by the end of the year. Whether he can still pitch well while doing that is another story, but 2011 would be a more likely bet for his ETA than mid 2012. I’d say he’s a good year ahead of Westmoreland who you’ve got at late 2012.