Searing summer: Current La Niña pattern is expected to continue

Thomas Metthe/Reporter-News
A Texas Forest Service member watches the fire line burn at the White Hat Fire on June 21 in Nolan County.

Tommy Metthe/Abilene Reporter-News

Ironically, the hottest summer ever was book-ended by record lows.

On May 3 the low was 37. Five days later the high was 102 — the first 100-degree day of the year.

A week after a balmy overnight low of 83 produced a record high minimum for Aug. 30, a cold front blew in and dropped the temperature to 47 — a record for Sept. 6. Exactly a week later, the high was 101, tying a record set in 1893.

"Hot enough for ya?"

Abilenians overheated on the conversation-starter the summer of 2011.

With Friday's arrival of fall, the hottest summer ever in Abilene officially ended. Of course, the heat was on well before summer officially started June 21. It hit 102 on May 8, and the high of 109 on May 28 tied for the all-time hottest day in May.

There were 20 days of temperatures of 105 or hotter; five times it was 107, including June 17 to 19 ... when it wasn't even "summer" yet.

All total, there have been 80 days of at least 100 degrees this year. That's 30 percent of all the days to date.

So if it gets hot again, don't be surprised. On Oct. 8, 1979, the temperature peaked at 102 — the latest in a year it has been 100 or hotter.

The high for today, in fact, is forecast to be 94 and mostly sunny.

Who would've guessed a record-setting heat wave was ahead back in early February, when Abilene shivered for a week with temperatures well under freezing and ice glazing the roads. Two record lows were set, and the high of 15 degrees Feb. 2 was a record low maximum.

Yet by month's end, record high minimums were set — 58 on Feb. 17 and 59 on Feb. 20. Perhaps that was the first clue of what was to come.

March had a 90-degree day (the 22nd), and a record high minimum of 63 was set March 17.

There were 15 days of 90-plus temperatures in April, with the high twice hitting 99.

May brought five 100-degree days, including 109 over the Memorial Day weekend that tied the all-time May high first set in 2000.

HOT ALL OVER

The June-August stretch was the hottest on record in Abilene, as well as Texas. Weather records melted left and right.

The 80 days of at least 100 degrees obliterated the previous local total of 46. It was a record commonly set in Texas; San Angelo recorded 98 days of 100 or more, a whopping 38 more days than the previous record set in 1969.

Wichita Falls on Sept. 13 hit 100 days of 100s; the previous record was 79.

Tyler recorded 46 straight days of triple digits; that East Texas City's previous record was 20, set in 1998.

Abilene's average daily temperature for July and August were records: 90.1 in July and 90.3 in August. June's average was the second highest ever at 87.6 degrees (the 1953 record of 87.7 barely held on). During that 92-day stretch, the average daily temperature in Abilene was 89.3 degrees.

Those averages make the summer the hottest here since record-keeping began in 1886.

To compound the problem, the state suffered tremendous losses due to wildfires fueled by low humidity, high winds and brittle vegetation. And as water sources drained due to evaporation and the lack of replenishment, firefighters were reluctant to use stock tanks.

DRY, TOO

Not only was it hot, it was bone dry.

Abilene went 52 days — June 23 to Aug. 12 — without measurable precipitation, the fourth-longest stretch ever.

For the year, the city has measured 10.63 inches of precipitation, with no measurable moisture reported in July. Subtract the wild Easter hailstorm, which produced 2.42 inches of precipitation, both hard and soft, and an unexpected but totally welcome 3.53 inches Aug. 13, and the city would be much, much drier.

The August rain knocked 2011 out of the running for one of the five driest January-August stretches. Take that day away, and the city's total through Aug. 31 would've ranked No. 2 (6.55 in 1956 remains the record).

There were 46 records set or tied since April 24, 18 for maximum temperatures. There were 18 records set for high minimums. There were 22 records set in August.

Abilene went from July 12 to 29 — 18 straight days — with 100-degree temperatures, the fifth-longest stretch ever. However, had the temperature not tipped to 98 on July 30, the streak would have been 31 because a dozen more 100-degree days followed. That would have bested the 1952 record of 30.

Not only was it hot during the day, but also it didn't seem to cool off much at night.

Twice in July the low temperature was 84 degrees. That was believed to be the warmest overnight lows ever until an 86 was found, way back in 1894.

CALL TO CONSERVE

The combination of heat and drought forced the city of Abilene to cut watering from three days to two starting June 6. With the level of Lake Fort Phantom Hill dropping close to 10 feet below spillway, one-day watering — officially called Stage 1 in the city's conservation plan — could be coming in October.

The last time Stage 1 was declared was in 2007.

Normal precipitation October-December is 5.62 inches. If that total were to be matched, the 2011 total still would fall 7 inches short of the yearly norm of 23.27 inches.

LA NIÑA STAYING

The prospect of normal rainfall the final three months of the year is bleak.

The National Weather Service in San Angelo predicts 2011 will end on a warmer and drier note than usual. And with the current La Niña pattern expected to continued well into 2012, the prospects of cooler, wetter conditions ahead are slim.

The 10-day forecast calls for no rain and high temperatures back and forth into the 90s.

Terry Huber, senior forecaster with the weather service in San Angelo, said last week that the Climate Prediction Center says La Niña conditions will persist. When Pacific equatorial waters are cool, moisture that eventually travels to Texas is not produced. That means it's warmer and drier here than normal.

Yet it has rained, and sometimes heavily.

"The rain has been very spotty. There are some places that are near their normal," Huber said. "The problem we get into is that it hasn't been consistent. It has been the luck of the draw, like playing a card game."

Huber said that when there is a severe La Niña year, another La Niña year follows, though usually not as bad.

That's not what parched West Texans want to hear.

"The bad news is that is what the long-term climate models show," Huber said.

The outlook for the next three to six months for this area, he said, is for drier and warmer than normal conditions. The prospects for far West Texas toward the Mexican border are even worse.

Will the summer of 2012 be a sequel to the hottest summer ever?

Huber said that models are not conclusive this far out but that there is no evidence severe weather conditions will change for the better.

Across the Big Country, Nolan, Fisher, Kent, Stonewall and Haskell counties have had the least rain this year, weather service website maps show. Fisher and Nolan counties have received less than 25 percent of normal rainfall.

The U.S. Drought Monitor maintained by the Climate Prediction Center last week colored virtually all of Texas and Oklahoma maroon for "exceptional" drought.

The outlook through Dec. 31 is for drought conditions to "persist or intensify."

So while the season name has changed from summer to fall, Texans won't get great relief.