Week 10 Top 25 Forecasts!

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 154-25(86%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU AT #2 ALABAMA

First #1 vs #2 matchup in the reg ssn S/’06 and the first matchup of the top 2 tms in Bryant-Denny Stadium history. This is Saban Bowl 5 and Bama and LSU have split the L/4 meetings since Saban took over at Bama. Both teams are off a bye and LY both tms were also off byes and LSU held AL to a ssn low 102 rush yds while LSU rushed for 225 yds and pulled out a 24-21 win. LSU has outgained the Tide in 4 of the last 5 and Miles is 4-2 vs AL (only LSU HC to ever beat AL 4x). The Tigers are led by QB Lee who is avg 156 ypg (63%) w/a 13-1 ratio (#12 NCAA pass eff) while Jefferson has played in the L/4 and is getting more reps each week. RB Ware leads with 512 (4.0) and after being susp vs Aub will be back here along with defensive star Mathieu. Bama’s young QB McCarron is becoming more than just a game-manager and is avg 208 ypg (67%) with a 10-3 ratio while RB Richardson 989 (6.6, #7 NCAA) and 17 TD’s could lock up a trip to NY for the Heisman with a big gm here. While LSU’s D gets alot of pub they are giving up 251 ypg (14.4 FD’s) while Bama’s D only allows 181 ypg (9.9 FD’s). Bama is also +280 ypg while LSU is +120 ypg. While it is well noted that LSU is 30-1 S/’01 in AG’s w/a start of 6:00 pm or later, Bama is 25-1 at home S/’07, has the better D, the better HC and the best player on the field in Richardson. Add it all up and Bama stakes their claim for the national title! Roll Tide!

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 17 LSU 6

#3 OKLAHOMA ST VS #17 KANSAS STATE

Snyder is 10-4 vs OSU. OSU has been the better team in the month of Nov going 13-9 while KSU is 3-12. LTH (‘07) KSU lost on an OSU FG w/:02 left. LY OSU was w/o WR Blackmon (susp) and trailed 7-0 but scored 24 unanswered incl a 26 yd IR TD to pull away 24-14 on the road. The Cinderella Cats got their bubble burst by angry OU 58-17 as the Sooners scored TD’s on 5 straight poss to start the 2H while KSU had just 32 ttl yds. Methodical K-St off (#4 FBS TOP) is led by QB Klein (124, 58%, 8-3, 762 rush) who has more rush att (177) this yr than pass att (154). KSU is #82 pass eff D (278, 64%, 15-12). OSU continued their mastery of Baylor jumping out to a 42-0 early 3Q lead before allowing 3 4Q TD’s. The final is misleading however as BU drove 69/16pl, 49/9pl, 63/12pl, 43/11pl and 57/8pl in the 1H with nothing to show for it as they were SOD twice, threw 2 picks and missed a FG. OSU QB Weeden is #7 FBS passing (339, 71%, 22-7) with WR Blackmon (74, 11.3, 10 TD) stepping up now that Anyiam is OFY. Cowboys lead the nation in TO margin at +19 which is on pace to break Miami, FL’s 2001 FBS record. Obvious off edge for OSU (#1-72) here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 44 KANSAS ST 27

#4 STANFORD AT OREGON STATE

Sandwich game for the Cardinal as they are coming off a 3OT victory over USC (trailed most of the 2H, had not trailed all ssn coming in) and have the all important meeting with Oregon on deck. The Cardinal hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 16. The Beavers meanwhile coughed up the ball 4 times and saw QB Mannion sk’d on 6 occasions in a 27-8 loss at Utah. Prior to LY OSU had outgained SU in each of the previous 10 yrs by an avg of 452-268! Key mismatch will be Heisman hopeful QB Luck (305 yds pass in LY’s gm) going up against the #9 set of DB’s in P12 (all’g 222 ypg TY, 64%, 17-7 ratio). LY SU had a +5 TO edge but allowed no OSU drive further than the SU32 and rolled to a 38-0 home win (1st time OSU was shutout S/’02). SU hasn’t won B2B gms in this series S/’94 and ‘95 and the HT is 4-0 with 2 upsets which could keep this one close early on before the Cardinal once again pull ahead in the 2H with substantial edges on both off (#5-61) and def (#15-67).

PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 41 OREGON ST 24

#5 BOISE ST AT UNLV

LV has lost 10 str vs ranked foes by 28 ppg (last win in OT vs #15 Ariz St ‘08). LV ret’d home for the 1st time in 35 days and pulled the upset over Colo St, 38-35, in a gm that had 8 lead changes. LV started QB Reilly but he threw a 52 yd pick 6 and Herring came in on the 3rd series and went the rest of the way hitting 9-13-90 with a 2-0 ratio (also 22 rush yd, 1 TD). WR Payne’s 2 rec TD’s broke LV’s career record and he leads with 385 (13.3, 6) TY. RB Bradford finished with 122 rush yds and now leads with 371 (4.9) but only 1 TD. Boise is off a bye but does have a huge gm vs TCU on deck. BSU can beat you through the air (Moore 287 ypg, 76%, 24-5 ratio, #4 FBS pass eff) or on the ground (Martin 747 rush yd, 5.3, 9 TD) and LV allows 286 ypg pass (62%, 18-6) and 169 ypg rush (4.6). BSU has huge edges all around (off #12-115, D #9-116, ST #19-58) so this could be a long day for the Rebs.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 52 UNLV 3

#6 OREGON AT WASHINGTON

Final HG at Husky Stadium until 2013 due to renovation. The Huskies rebounded from the Stanford loss LW vs the Cats in comeback fashion as RB Polk became the 1st player in UW history with 100 yds rush and rec in a gm while also adding 5 TD’s. Despite the 15 pt win over WSU, the Ducks were actually outgained (462-451) for the 1st time TY (just 3rd time in 2Y). Oregon has now won 7 straight by 27 ppg in this series (+208 avg yd edge). LY the Ducks led just 18-6 at the half but scored 35 in the 2H and LTH UO trailed 3-0 after 1Q before a 36-3 explosion the next 2 Q’s. The Huskies have not fared well vs ranked tms as of late incl a 65-21 defeat vs Stanford 2 wks ago, a game in which UW allowed 446 rush yds (10.4). UW also lost both of their meetings a LY vs Top 15 teams by a combined score of 97-21 (Stanford and Nebraska). Despite avg 308 ypg (7.1) on the ground themselves TY, the Ducks’ season actually depends on how they fare next wk vs Stanford and not how well they perform here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 49 WASHINGTON 35

# 7 OKLAHOMA VS TEXAS A&M

The Sooners are 10-5 vs the Aggies (avg MOV is 26 ppg). LY OU trailed 19-0 early 3Q and the story of the game was OU being SOD THREE times on 4&gl at the 1 in a 33-19 loss despite a 29-17 FD edge. A&M has dropped 6 str trips to Norman by an avg of 39 ppg. In the last trip A&M was hammered 65-10 being outgained 640-226. For the 3rd time TY A&M blew a DD HT lead in their 38-31 OT loss to Missouri. The Ags couldn’t overcome 3 2H TO’s or slow the Tigers ground gm (284-183). A&M QB Tannehill (290, 65%, 18-7) has had crucial 2H TO’s in all 3 losses. Ags are last in the FBS in pass D (318, 64%, 14-4). The Sooners bounced back to blast undefeated KSU 58-17 with 34-15 FD and 690-240 yd edges. After the Cats cut it to 17-14 early 2Q it was all OU as they scored TD’s on 5 straight poss to start the 2H despite losing #1 rusher Whaley (627, 5.6) on the 1st play with a brk ankle. Both tms rarely allow sks (OU #1 FBS w/ 3 and A&M-7) and are the FBS’s #1 (OU-34) and #2 (A&M-30) sackers. OU has a bye on deck and is playing with legit revenge.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 44 TEXAS A&M 27

#8 ARKANSAS VS #10 SOUTH CAROLINA

Ark is off B2B rd gms while SC is off road trip to Tenn. LY Ark won 41-20 and had a scheduling advantage there as it didn’t matter what SC did vs Ark, just what they did vs Florida the following week which would put them in the SEC Title game. They pulled some st’rs in the 3Q (Lattimore 30 yds) and the Hogs passed for 303 yds and led 41-10. SC has dropped its L/2 trips to Ark including the last in ‘09, 33-16. LW the Cardiac Hogs again got off to a slow start trailing Vandy 21-7 in the 1H before pulling out a 31-28 win. Vandy did miss a chipshot 27 yd FG on the final play. Two wks ago Ark trailed Ole Miss 17-0 before rallying for a 29-24 win and they were down 35-17 at HT to A&M earlier TY before winning 42-38. The Hogs are led by QB Wilson who is avg 291 ypg (63%) with a 13-3 ratio but has taken numerous hits all year long. SC was able to come off the bye w/out RB Lattimore (OFY knee) and get a 14-3 win at Tenn LW. True frosh Brandon Wilds ran for a career-high 137 yds (4.9) and the Gamecocks D limited Tenn to just 186 yds. QB Connor Shaw has avg just 121 (65%, 2-3) in his two road starts and the Hogs will no doubt stack the LOS and force him to beat them thru the air. Ark has the off (#20-39) and ST’s edge (#13-79) and SC is playing only their 2nd gm w/out arguably the most valuable player to any one team in the SEC.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 34 SOUTH CAROLINA 17

#9 NEBRASKA VS NORTHWESTERN

The last time these schools played was in the ‘00 Alamo Bowl with the Huskers winning 66-17 and outgaining the Cats 636-383. Neb is off MSU with Penn St/Mich on deck while NW is off a road trip to Indiana with Rice on deck. The Huskers grabbed the Legends lead pounding MSU 24-3 with a 190-101 yd edge. RB Burkhead (882, 5.4) was Superman scoring 3 TD vs the stingy Spartans D. Both D’s have underachieved with the Huskers forcing just 11 TO’s and 13 sks TY. The Cats benched 4 D st’rs including pressn All B10 DE Browne 2W ago vs PSU as they are allowing 39 ppg and 454 ypg in conf play. NW ended their 5 gm losing streak jumping all over hapless Indy 59-38. Even at less than 100% and splitting snaps QB Persa (250, 75%, 9-3) has been dynamic. The Cats scored on 9 of their 1st 10 poss and had 405 yds by HT. Neb has the enormous expected D (#20-93) and ST (#7-87) edges but the scrappy Cats and they keep it close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 38 NORTHWESTERN 28

#12 MICHIGAN AT IOWA

57th meeting and Iowa has never beaten UM 3 str times. Iowa is 4-8 in series but UM has dropped 2 of their L/3 trips to Iowa City incl ‘09 (28-30) when they were -4 in TO’s (-8 L2Y). LY UI led UM 35-14 early 4Q holding on for the win despite being outFD’d (-8) and outgained (-139) but did have a 4-0 TO edge. Vanilla Hawks D has traditionally struggled vs mobile QB’s (ssn’s worst pts and yd ttls vs ISU, NW and Indy TY) with Minny QB Gray running for 2 crucial 4Q 4D conversions including the gm winning TD with 2:48 left LW. The Hawks had 21-15 FD and 446-371 yd edges but missed 2 FG’s and fmbl’d at the UM14 ruining RB Coker’s huge gm (252, 7.9). UM dominated PU scoring 36 straight pts and finishing with a 535-311 yd edge. QB D-Rob (178, 55%, 11-11, 825 rush) may’ve found a RB who can share the rush load as Toussaint had 170 (8.5) vs the Boilers. Wolves are #1 B10 in rush D in conf play allowing 121 ypg (4.1). Hawks have a huge ST edge (#23-111) and are 59-12 at home since 2001.

PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 31 MICHIGAN 27

#14 HOUSTON AT UAB

UH is 1-3 in Birmingham but did win their last visit (‘07) 49-10. In the L/gm (‘08) UAB led 20-3 at HT with a 257-199 yd edge but was outscored 42-0 in the 2H mustering just 4 FD’s and 70 yds. UH LW regained the Bayou Bucket and at 8-0 match their best start in history (last time ‘90). Just when things looked like they would be turning around UAB was dominated LW by Marshall (trailed 38-0 at HT and 59-7 in 4Q) as HC Callaway is all but out the door. QB Perry was benched and Bento looked lost (Ellis ssn ending inj). UH had a bye 3W ago and is off Thurs night gm while UAB is playing for a 9th str wk. The big news here is that QB Keenum is 267 yds away from becoming the NCAA’s all-time passing leader. LW he broke the NCAA all-time career passing TD’s mark (9 TD passes LW) and 2W ago the ttl yds record. Keenum has been near perfect at home but has been upset 8x’s on the road! UH has a big off edge (#3-100) but has had 3 unimpressive AG’s TY (tied 17-17 late 2Q at NT, trailed 34-7 at LT and trailed 28-24 3Q at UTEP). Perfection comes with a price and that is pressure as the season progresses. Look for Houston to win but it maybe closer than what some expect.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 51 UAB 34

#15 MICHIGAN ST VS MINNESOTA

MSU is 4-6 in series. The avg MOV the L/5 is by 20 ppg (closest gm 8 pts). LY MSU snapped a 3 gm losing skid in series and led 24-0 into the 4Q as RB Baker had 179 (6.6) yds and 4 TD’s and won 31-8. There have been SEVEN outright upsets in the L/10! MSU is coming off of 1 of the biggest months in program history with wins over OSU, Mich, Wisky before running out of gas in a 24-3 loss at Neb and they also have a road trip to Iowa (who handed them their only 2010 reg ssn loss 37-6) on deck so this is an obvious flat spot. MSU was smothered by the Huskers being outFD’d 18-12 and outgained 270-187. After the Wisky heroics MSU QB Cousins (212, 64%, 11-5) struggled vs NU behind a leaky OL (4 sks) which hasn’t gotten a push up front with the B10’s worst ground gm (133, 3.7). Sparty remains #2 FBS in ttl D allowing 229 ypg (only Wisky over 275 yds). Minny, who had lost their 1st 3 B10 gms by 38 ppg, beat Iowa in B2B ssns for the 1st time S/’99-’00. Despite being outFD’d 21-15 and outgained 446-371 QB Gray (134, 51%, 4-4, #1 rush w/500) converted 2 4Q 4th down incl the gm winning TD run on 4&2 with 2:48 left as UM had B2B TD drives after rec’ing an onside K. The Gophers had 6 FD in the 1st 3 Q’s as the Hawks missed 2 FG and was SOD at the UM31. MSU may try to get the ground gm going as the Gophers allow 202 rush ypg (5.3). The Spartans bounce back in a big way.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST 38 MINNESOTA 3

#18 GEORGIA VS NEW MEXICO STATE

NMSU is 0-3 vs UGA losing by an avg of 32 ppg. The Bulldogs won the last meeting (in ‘02) 41-10 but had just 17-16 FD and 299-275 yd edges. The Aggies are 1-5 on the road vs BCS tms S/’04 including 1-2 under HC Walker but the lone win and cover came TY vs Minny where NMSU was and pulled the outright upset 28-21 (ended an 18 gm losing streak to BCS tms). The Aggies fell 48-34 to Nevada LW as QB Christian threw for a career-high 432 yds and 3 TD’s. UGA has huge edges on off (#21-85) and def (#8-111) and comes in riding high after its 6th consec win as the Bulldogs ended a 3 gm losing streak to Florida (only UGA’s 4th win in 22 tries vs UF) with a 24-20 win that may have saved HC Richt’s job. QB Murray was just 15-34-169 but it was enough as they outFD’d (23-11) and outgained (354-226) the Gators while holding them to -19 rush yds. This is the 3rd consec ssn they have a non-conf gm vs a non-BCS tm sandwiched between UF and AU, but the L/2 yrs after facing UF, UGA has outscored its next opp 93-7. This may be different because just announced yesterday UGA will be playing without 3 suspended RB’s incl super True Frosh Crowell and RB Samuel (ankle) will be out here as well with UGA having to go deep on their bench

PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 45 NEW MEXICO ST 17

#19 WISCONSIN VS PURDUE

Wisky is 5-0 with an avg MOV by 19 ppg. With their superior OL and RB’s UW has worn down Purdue late in gms and has outscored them 89-6 in the final 3Q’s the L/3 (no TD’s all’d). LY UW won 34-13 but had 3 scoring drives of 14 yds or less and were outgained 304-303. PU’s OL dominated UW’s DL in the 1H and they had a 173-66 yd edge before the Badgers capitalized on int’s. PU is 2-22 vs ranked opp’s. UW hired PU’s LB coach away from them this spring. Shell shocked Badgers are off B2B losses at MSU and OSU in which they all’d long TD passes with :20 and no time left. After worrying about the BCS rankings 2 wks ago, they now find themselves behind PSU and OSU and tied with Purdue in the Leaders standings. QB Wilson (254, 71%, 19-3) still is #1 FBS pass eff but the ground gm was held to just 89 yd vs OSU, its fewest S/’09. Badgers run D is being bruised for 190 ypg (4.3) in B10 play. After going 67/5pl for a TD on their opening drive the Boilers were throttled by Mich who scored 36 straight pts and finished with 25-16 FD and 535-311 yd edges. After going the distance vs IL QB TerBush (160, 62%, 9-4) split time with Marve (8-14, 66 yd, 1-1) vs UM. Boilers are allowing 186 rush ypg (4.4) in B10 play. PU has a big ST edge (#11-68) with the Badgers having P’s blk’d in B2B gms which could minimize UW’s LOS edge.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 41 PURDUE 20

#20 ARIZONA ST AT UCLA

A must win for the Bruins in the race for the P12 South. UCLA is 1-3 S/’07 vs ASU and the 55 pts allowed LY was a series high. The lone bright spot LY for the Bruins was QB Brehaut who set UCLA rec’ds for pass comp and att (33-56). UCLA will be without him TY (broken leg) as they are turning to QB Prince who is off a great performance LW in their upset over Cal rushing for 163 yds (8.6) as the Bruins were without key members of their WR corps (susp from AZ gm). ASU had their way with Colo outgaining the Buffs 522-420 (CU 239 garbage yds in 2H). ASU is 1-5 in visits to Pasadena incl ‘09, 23-13. Have to feel that the Sun Devils may be already planning for their appearance in the Title Game, but UCLA continues to be a tough venue for many team. UCLA’s season has gone much as I expected with wins at Oregon St and vs Washington St, but even I was pleasantly surprised by LW’s performance as despite having multiple susp players, they performed admirably for the HC crowd.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA ST 24 UCLA 23

#21 USC AT COLORADO

In the last gm in ‘02 USC hammered #18 CU (in Boulder) with 22-4 FD and 425-61 yd edges (cover by 40 pts!) and that gm started to propel the USC juggernaut under Carroll. This is a letdown spot for the Trojans however as they are coming in off trips to Cal, ND and their home meeting with the Cardinal. USC now battles the altitude and a short week vs a CU tm that has nothing left to lose and should see the return of their leading RB Stewart and leading WR Richardson. USC gets the win here but it would not surprise me if it was a close game at HT.

PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 41 COLORADO 20

#23 CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

Pitt has owned this series of late going 8-2 but surprisingly enter this meeting fighting for their bowl lives while Cincy is fresh off a bye and on top of the BE standings. The Panthers have a few extra days of rest here as well playing the previous Wed night at home vs Conn, but despite the victory the tm lost 3 starters to ssn ending inj’s incl arguably the BE’s top offensive player in RB Graham (958, 5.8). LY Pitt won 28-10 win on the wintery road with a 430-265 yd edge. UC is just 1-5 in trips to Pittsburgh but won the last (‘09) as the #5 Bearcats trailed #14 Pitt by 21 late 2Q and by 14 in the 4Q but got a miracle win taking the BE Title away from the Panthers. The BE standings have been very hard to decipher TY and while Cincy comes in on top, Pitt has ply’d well at home TY vs conf opp and QB Sunseri had a break out game in Graham’s absence with a career-high 419 pass yds (459 ttl). Cincy comes in with the far better record and while Pitt is only 4-4, by comparing the talent level on the field the Panthers should get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 34 CINCINNATI 27

#24 WEST VIRGINIA VS LOUISVILLE

Six of the L/8 in this series have been decided by 8 pts or less. Despite just 26 pts in ‘09 and 27 LY, these tms have combined to avg 60 ppg over the L/7 meetings. WV is 10-2 vs UL incl 4 straight wins and is playing their only home game over a 4 week stretch. Trailing by 10 heading into a snowy 2H vs Rutgers, WV outscored the Knights 20-0 for the victory as they went to the run gm with 210 yds (5.7). UL has now won B2B conf gms for the 1st time S/’07 as the Cardinals def all’d just 10 ppg to a Syracuse tm that was avg 30 ppg on the ssn. LY the Cardinals led 10-7 briefly thanks to a sk/fmbl/TD w/10:26 left 2Q but from that point on were shutout gaining just 66 yds w/4 FD’s (deepest drive to WV46). The Mountaineers only won by 7 and 8 the L/2x hosting LOU and despite WV having a huge off edge (#15-108), the Cardinals balance it out with a #22-65 def edge and are all’g just 16 ppg TY.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 34 LOUISVILLE 24

Phil, I got a lot of respect for you but Arky scoring 37 on SC’s defense? I just cannot see that, even at Arkansas. I could agree with 27 points maybe and that would be a high water mark. I see Carolina having a chance to win this game if they can run the ball well enough to keep Arky’s O on the sidelines.