[239 Pages Report] The semi-autonomous & autonomous truck market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23.38% and 39.96% during the forecast period, respectively. The semi-autonomous truck market is estimated at 228.6 Thousand Units in 2017. The market for semi-autonomous and autonomous trucks is projected to reach 1,132.3 Thousand Units in 2025 and 81.8 thousand units in 2030, respectively. In this study for semi-autonomous truck, 2017 has been considered as the base year and 20182025 as the forecast period. However, for autonomous truck, 20252030 is considered as the forecast period for the study.

The report analyzes and forecasts the market size, in terms of volume (units), of the global semi-autonomous & autonomous truck market. The report segments the semi-autonomous truck market and forecasts its size, by volume, based on the level of automation, ADAS features, propulsion type, truck class, sensor type, and region. The autonomous truck market is segmented by sensor, level of automation, propulsion type, and region. The research methodology used in the report involves various secondary sources such as the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Experts from related industries and suppliers have been interviewed to understand the future trends of the semi-autonomous & autonomous truck market.

The figure given below illustrates the break-up of the profiles of industry experts who participated in primary discussions.

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Increasing demand for safety, security, and efficient transport is expected to drive the semi-autonomous truck market, demand close to 1,132.3 thousand units by 2025

Autonomous trucks are capable of sensing the surrounding environment and navigating easily without human intervention. On the other hand, trucks that are capable of sensing the environment but require human intervention to a certain extent for navigation are classified as semi-autonomous vehicles.

Currently, testing is done on semitrucks by several companies. For instance, Otto, a self-driving trucking company demonstrated its trucks on the highway, and the company was acquired by Uber in August 2016. Also, Embark (San Francisco) announced its partnership with Peterbilt (truck manufacturer) to test and deploy autonomous technology in its vehicles. Waymo, a technology provider for autonomous technology, is also testing the autonomous trucks.

Minimal vehicle accidents, improved fuel efficiency and engine productivity, and reduced fuel consumption are some of the potential benefits of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles. Increased accident fatalities coupled with rising concern for vehicle safety and security have accentuated the need for the development of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles. The commercialization of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles is anticipated to curb high insurance premium and minimize accidents. This, in turn, is expected to drive the market growth in the next 510 years.

Consumer nonacceptance for automation and supportive infrastructure cost are anticipated to restrict the growth of the semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles market. However, technological evolution in the coming years is likely to bring down the exorbitant prices of the semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles. LIDAR prices significantly dropped within 34 years. The popularity and acceptance of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicle technologies are anticipated to rise, mainly in developed countries.

Challenges

Critical Questions:

Do government regulations pertaining to autonomous truck technology would drive industry?

How does the industry see the adoption in terms of level of autonomous from semi-autonomous to autonomous technology?

Does autonomous truck likely to grow over semi-autonomous truck technology?

The semi-autonomous truck market is estimated to be 260.1 Thousand Units in 2018 and is projected to reach 1,132.3 Thousand Units by 2025, at a CAGR of 23.38%. The autonomous truck market is estimated to be 15.2 thousand units in 2025 and is projected to reach 81.8 thousand units by 2030, at a CAGR of 39.96%. The market growth is triggered by various factors such as the need for ease in driving and the increasing concerns of safety and security, which have led to the development of high-end technology and safety systems. Moreover, the increasing concern of truck driver shortage in many countries such as the US and Japan can be addressed with the help of semi-autonomous and autonomous trucks for goods transportation. Truck platooning using semi-autonomous and autonomous trucks can further improve efficiency and productivity and reduce CO2 emission.

The semi-autonomous truck market has been segmented, by ADAS features, into Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Assist, Intelligent Park Assist, Traffic Jam Assist, Autonomous Emergency Braking, Blind Spot Detection, and Highway Pilot. Automaticmergency Braking and Adaptive Cruise Control are estimated to hold the largest market share between 2018 and 2025. In the US, automatic emergency braking systems are expected to be standard in vehicles by 2022 according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The market for Blind Spot Detection would grow at the highest CAGR to increase road safety and decrease the number of accidents due to human errors.

By sensor, the semi-autonomous & autonomous truck market has been segmented into radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, and camera. The market for LIDAR is estimated to be the largest for the autonomous truck market as it can provide reliable data of truck surrounding. However, the major challenge in the adoption of LIDAR sensor in semi-autonomous trucks is its high cost. The Radar segment is expected to dominate the semi-autonomous truck market.

The European region is estimated to dominate the semi-autonomous truck market, in terms of volume, in 2018. The region comprises technologically advanced countries such as Germany, France, and others. Also, European truck manufacturers such as Daimler (Germany), Volkswagen (Germany), and Volvo (Sweden) are focusing on research and development activities to develop autonomous vehicles. North America is expected to dominate the autonomous truck market (volume) followed by Europe and the Asia Pacific. The regions key technology innovators such as Waymo (US), Uber (US), and Embark (US) are investing in R&D to test the autonomous vehicle technology.

The lack of infrastructure to support semi-autonomous trucks, particularly in developing nations, and concerns regarding cyber security and safety of the personal data of the users can hinder the growth of semi-autonomous & autonomous truck market. The semi-autonomous truck market is currently in a nascent stage and is dominated by players such as Bosch (Germany), Continental (Germany), Aptiv (UK), and others.

Increasing demand for safety and security, rise in road traffic congestion, truck driver shortage, and reduction in travel time are the key factors driving the growth of the semi-autonomous truck market.

Level 1

Level 1 is an automated system on the vehicle in which most of the functions are controlled by the driver. In level 1 of automation, some driving assistance and warning or advisory information are provided by the system. The driver has to monitor the driving environment and dynamic driving. At times, under certain conditions, the system would handle the execution of steering and acceleration. Level 1 includes advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) features such as Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB), Blind Spot Detection (BSD), and Lane Assist (LA). Currently, many OEMs are manufacturing level 1 autonomous trucks.

Level 2

Level 2 automation is called partial automation. In Level 2 semi-autonomous trucks, the system can take control or assist in acceleration, steering, and brake in certain circumstances. The driver needs to monitor the driving environment, perform safety critical functions, perform dynamic driving tasks, and always be ready to take control of the truck. In addition to the ADAS features integrated into level 1 autonomous trucks, level 2 automation offers additional features such as Traffic Jam Assist (TJA), automated platooning, and Intelligent Park Assist (IPA). Many companies are focusing on the development of level 2 semi-autonomous trucks. For instance, in February 2018, the level 2 autonomous truck of Embark Trucks (US) drove from Los Angeles to Jacksonville, Florida.

Level 3

Level 3 automation is called conditional automation. The major difference between level 2 and level 3 semi-autonomous truck is that the system monitors the driving environment and executes acceleration and steering. However, the driver still needs to perform dynamic driving tasks. The monitoring of driving environment is done with the help of sensors such as LIDAR and radar. The data from Lidar is used to create localization and mapping. About 1 or 2 LIDARs can be used in a level 3 semi-autonomous truck. The 3D LIDARs manufactured by Velodyne have a 360-degree field of view (FoV). Hence, one LIDAR is sufficient for monitoring the surrounding.

Level 4

Level 4 trucks are highly automated trucks in which the system controls the steering, acceleration, and braking. The driving environment and dynamic driving tasks are also monitored and performed by the system. The only difference between a level 5 fully autonomous and level 4 autonomous truck is that some of the driving modes are controlled by level 4 truck. The autonomous driving system notifies the driver when he can switch to the autonomous driving mode. By accepting the notification, the driver can manually switch to the fully autonomous mode. In October 2016, Ubers Otto level 4 autonomous truck delivered around 50,000 beer cans from Fort Collins, Colorado, US to Colorado Springs, US.

Level 5

Level 5 is a fully autonomous truck that does not need any inputs or attention from the driver and can drive itself. All the driving functions such as the execution of acceleration, steering, driving environment monitoring, and dynamic driving tasks are performed by the system in all driving modes. The communication modules such as V2X are used in level 4 and level 5 autonomous trucks. Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) is a wireless technology that facilitates the exchange of information between a vehicle and all the entities it comes in contact, such as other vehicles, infrastructure, pedestrians, grid, home, and the network. The V2X technology helps in improving traffic congestion and offers advantages of high energy savings and improvements in location accuracy and positioning, among others. It comprises of vehicle-to-vehicle, vehicle-to-infrastructure, vehicle-to-pedestrian, vehicle-to-device, vehicle-to-grid, and vehicle-to-cloud.

Critical Questions:

How infrastructure plays an important role to make autonomous truck technology operational?

Which countries are key markets and have high growth potential for semi-autonomous truck market?

How logistics industry would get affected after the implementation of trucks platooning technology?

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