There is one similarity between all its strategies, sources told The Express Tribune: Yousaf Raza Gilani will remain prime minister for at least five more months – come what may.

According to sources, the top leadership of the PPP has been briefed by the prime minister’s legal team.

If convicted, the premier may be given up to a six-month sentence, but may also be sentenced “till the rise of the court” – that is, no actual jail time, the legal team told the PPP leadership.

Whatever the sentence may be, Prime Minster Gilani will not seek pardon from President Asif Ali Zardari – who can, under Article 45, can waive a sentence.

Even in a situation whereby the sentence is six months, the interior minister will immediately declare the Prime Minister House a sub-jail – and Gilani will go directly there.

Indeed, according to sources, it isn’t the sentencing that worries the PPP – it is his status as prime minister following a conviction.

Fawad Chaudhry, while talking with The Express Tribune, said that, constitutionally, the prime minister can be removed from his office in three ways: resignation, a vote of no confidence or if he no longer remains an MNA.

For starters, sources said, PPP will move under Article 94 to keep Gilani in office. Article 94 states: “The president may ask the prime minister to hold office until his successor enters upon the office of prime minister.”

As for his status as a member of the National Assembly (MNA), upon which his premiership is obviously contingent, the legal team’s briefings maintain that Gilani’s actual disqualification will be handled under Article 63(1) h, which states that a member can be disqualified if “he has been, on conviction for any offence involving moral turpitude, sentenced to imprisonment for a term of not less than two years, unless a period of five years has elapsed since his release.” Or even 63(1)g which states that an MNA can be disqualified if, “he has been convicted by a court of competent jurisdiction for propagating any opinion, or acting in any manner, prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan, or the sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan, or morality, or the maintenance of public order, or the integrity or independence of the judiciary of Pakistan, or which defames or brings into ridicule the judiciary or the Armed Forces of Pakistan…”

The disqualification, according to most analyses, will be in the hands of the Speaker of the National Assembly. The speaker will have to move a reference to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) seeking Gilani’s disqualification as an MNA. The speaker can hold the reference for up to 30 days before it is automatically sent to the ECP. The ECP then has up to 90 days to finalise the disqualification.

That’s about four months of a process.

In addition, according to Chaudhry, if Gilani is convicted, he has right of appeal and, till the decision, the president may ask him to continue his office. He said that, if the appeal is rejected, then the speaker will move forward Gilani’s reference of disqualification to ECP.

However, there is yet another school of thought on this matter, which was also included in the briefings. This theory holds that a sentencing, of any length, would carry an inbuilt disqualification – and there would be no procedural requirements for the disqualification.

Advocate Azhar Saddique says that under unusual circumstances such as in a contempt case, Gilani’s disqualification would be automatic under article 63(1)g. He says that Gilani would leave the court as an MNA not as prime minister – and the process will only be to determine his future as an MNA.

PPP’s strategy

If Gilani is convicted, counsels would go for a direct appeal against the verdict within 30 days and would try to get a stay order against Giani’s sentence. If they fail, that’s when the president will step in with Article 94.

If push comes to shove and someone challenges the president’s move to ask Gilani to stay on as prime minister, or if the court continues to press the government on the matter, there is another plan.

According to sources, the PPP-led coalition would in all probability nominate Federal Minister for Petroleum Senator Dr Asim Hussain as prime minister as a last resort. Since Hussain is a senator, and the prime minister cannot come from the Senate, he will need to be elected on an MNA seat. In this process, a Sindh-based MNA would be asked to resign and make way for Hussain, who would then contest the vacant seat.

This entire process would also take months.

And when that time is about to expire, Gilani will announce a caretaker setup, sources said.

PPP’s protest

In the meantime, the PPP will make hay.

Sources said that waves of PPP workers would accompany the prime minister to the court on Thursday. Following a conviction, they said that PPP would organise public gatherings in south Punjab, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir where court’s ruling would be condemned.

If Dr. Asim Hussain makes it to the PMship, it would be the first time that an Urdu speaker of UP background would become PM of Pakistan. No guys, Liaquat Ali Khan was not from UP. He was from the part of Panjab that is now Haryana in India.

Dr. Asim Hussain’s grandfather (naanaa) was a VC of Aligarh Muslim University and was born is some small town of UP (forgetting the name of this town, no one pays me for this kind of info anyway).

He was a graduate of Aligarh College, and when he graduated, he was sent to England for Ph.D. ( I believe, in Mathematics) on some scholarship that Sir Syed Ahmed Khan arranged, on the condition that he would come back and work at Aligarh. Since desis were a bit more honest in those days, Dr. Ziauddin came back and taught at Aligarh. He was later made VC of the university.

Dr. Ziauddin’s daughter established Ziauddin Hospital in North Nazimabad. This hospital now has a branch in Clifton. The high end, Dr. Ziauddin Road in Karachi is named after him

The President should know that, just because the Constitution confers upon him the right to pardon someone who has commited a crime, it does not behoove him well to do so. For one, the sentence would be handed down, if it would be handed down, for decisions and acts committed to hide and protect the President’s spurious undertakings. Anyone with a fair sense of justice would recuse himself from taking any action perceived to be personally motivated. Secondly, the President, by pardoning the guilty, will be confirming PPP’s sheer disregard for the rule of law. In countries where democratic traditions run deep, pardons are handed down when the President is about to leave office.

Right now, the people shouting the loudest, at the prospect of an imminent pardon after a guilty verdict, should be PPP’s members, whose struggle and sacrifices for instilling Democracy in Pakistan is no less than most other political parties.

The Prime Minister and his extensive legal team spearheaded by the ‘champion’ for the cause of justice have mulled over every possibility to STAY in office and continue their ways but NO ONE, literally NO ONE, in the ‘peoples’ party machinery advised the PM on a moral resignation. Wow, that truly reflects the moral decadence of this party and those in opposition as well.

@Balma: “Urdu speaker of UP background would become PM of Pakistan” the fact that where a person’s ancestors were from before partition has any sort of relevance to his being prime minister of this country demonstrates perfectly why Pakistan is in the sorry state it is today.

The chief election commissioner is Justice Shakir Ullah Jan appointed by the CJ himself so the ECP is not going to take any time at all.
As for the rest of the plotting, I hope the honorable judges are reading all this and give a judgement that counters all of the above and defeats their evil designs. The court should also issue directions to the incoming PM to write the letter within 7 days or face the same fate.

Whats even more shameful is that this strategy is out in the open and everyone knows the gameplay here and even then PPP would follow it….media and opposition would criticise it (with their own agendas) and everything would go along well for everyone.

The supreme court must give a very clear verdict which leaves nothing to imagination. It should clearly state that Gillani remains no more the PM(if convicted) and that all his orders there after carries no legal authority and that obeying any orders after his conviction would be illegal.

@Balma: Can’t figure out what you are trying to say! Dr. Asim Husain will be nominated for the PM’s position, if it is needed, to tow the President’s line and to obstinately disregard judicial judgements to write the letter to the Swiss Government, more adamantly than Gilani. For a prodigy of such an illustrious illuminati, like Dr. Ziauddin, it will be a moment of infamy if he accepts to fill in the PM’s role, nothing to jump up and down about. I do not know where you think Shaukat Aziz hailed from, but I do know that him and Musharraf’s sheer trampling of the rule of law can only be matched by the brazen disregard of the Constitution by the present regime. To us, who originate from the region you speak of, they broke all the traditions of integrity and uprightness, something people like Dr. Ziauddin was known for. It will be a moment of shame, not pride if Dr. Asim Husain accepts the position and tarnish the image of his grandfather. Just saying.

Pakistan whole judicial system is lawyer driven, therefore lawyer take dates and dates and courts allow them. Honourable CJ of Pakistan must take some decision in this regard and make policy in juridical commission. We do not accept any policies which make life easy for common PAKISTANI from our current parliament. They make policy for their betterment and for their families’ benefits.
As we read, saw and listen that how they cleverly (what a political MINDs) spending and was waste time how to prolong the PM case and others self created issues.

Simply elected members of the parliaments (MNA, MPA) set the example. Now they are going to set the next dirty example is that in National Assembly only speaker law is running. Then what is the different FATA and NA area.

Request t WHOLE PAKISTANI NATION please weak-up. They waste out time and our TAX money. PLEASE DO NOT CAST your VALUABLE VOTE to THEM in next coming general election.

The way they are planning is very shameful for the PPP and rulers.
How power hungers are thinking to protect PM, they do not think about the common people of this country.
Can they change the NATURE’S decisions if NATURE plans to terminate them?
They are all above the law ,but Allha is there and he will do punish them for which they have made fun with this nation and are looting day and night.
Shame on them. inefficient

This is neither first, nor second but the third time PPP Prime Minister stands before Supreme Court, of course it is the name of justice by another set of PCO judges who are sons, son in laws and nephews of the very same people who murdered ZAB, tortured her daughter and son in law and their thirst for blood remains unquenched.

@ Balma, very interesting, I bet most of the readers did not know. When I was growing up in Mardan, somehow this name sounds familiar, did Dr. Ziauddin teach at Peshawar University.Just guessing.Thanks for the info.By the way every Pakistani has the right to become President or PM regardless of their origin. I just wish that the MQM community stop calling themselves Mohajirs even after 60 plus years and should call themselves Pakistanis from Sindh.

I don’t believe the Dr. Asim Hussain Fiasco, who has suggested this and why. There is no reality of this story. Somebody has fabricated or set-out this story to divert the attention of people from the actual decision of supreme court.

PPP shenanigans are not prepared now to accept the decision of supreme court , what they would decide would be to prolong the Prime minister rein up to they can linger it on.They would sit with their lawyers ,after the detailed decision released by the court, and decide their strategy.

I think the Yousuf R. Gilani is convicted by the court. He should feel the moral obligation and resign from the seat and let the people elect new prime minister.