Open congressional seat creates buzz

For Jason Van Eaton, a longtime aide to Sen. Kit Bond, R-Mo., U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof’s move out of Washington represents a chance to fulfill a grade-school dream of running for office.

Van Eaton, 36, who left the position of Bond’s state director to move into Bond’s political team and pursue private-sector opportunities, said he is "absolutely" considering a congressional run. He said he’s been talking to donors and political officials and will mull things over with his family before deciding whether to jump into the race.

"For one thing, you’ve got to spend an appropriate amount of time considering the many variables involved in making that decision," Van Eaton said.

Hulshof’s decision to leave Congress and run for governor presents an enticing opportunity for political figures from Mid-Missouri, northeastern Missouri and St. Charles County to represent the vast Ninth District of Missouri in Congress.

Greg Steinhoff, a former health-care executive who serves as director of the Department of Economic Development, said he also is seriously considering running for the seat. The Columbia resident mulled running for the seat when Hulshof considered running for governor in 2004.

"I’m certainly considering the position," Steinhoff said. "We’re very excited to hear Kenny’s announcement, but it’s all happened very quickly. I’ve yet to discuss it with my wife and daughters."

But GOP candidates from Boone County - which makes up roughly one-sixth of the district’s population - and the surrounding area likely won’t be elected officials. State Reps. Ed Robb, R-Columbia, and Steve Hobbs, R-Mexico, ruled out running for Hulshof’s seat this week.

Multiple state lawmakers from in and around St. Charles County also expressed interest in running for the seat. The area is growing fast and is home to a sizable number of the congressional district’s voters. Possible candidates include Sen. John Griesheimer, R-Washington, Rep. Kevin Threlkeld, R-Washington, Rep. Mike Sutherland, R-Warrenton, Rep. Bob Onder, R-Lake Saint Louis, and Rep. Joe Smith, R-St. Charles.

If anything, Hulshof’s move out of Congress represents perhaps the best chance for Democrats to retake the Ninth District in a decade. Since he unseated Rep. Harold Volkmer in 1996, Hulshof has won re-election by substantial margins. He defeated Democratic candidate Duane Burghard in 2006 with 61 percent of the vote.

George Connor, a political science professor at Missouri State University in Springfield, said there is precedent for Democrats to prevail in Republican-leaning districts. He noted how state Sen. Frank Barnitz, D-Lake Spring, won two elections in a GOP-leaning district.

"There are examples of very conservative Democrats winning, so conservative that they’re almost Republicans, getting elected in more conservative districts than the Ninth," Connor said.

State Rep. Judy Baker, D-Columbia, started raising money for a bid against Hulshof last year, and Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode officially joined the contest this week. Former House Speaker Steve Gaw, D-Moberly, is expected to enter the race soon. State Sen. Wes Shoemyer, D-Clarence, is taking a look at running as well.

Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia who is a prominent observer of congressional races, said yesterday that the district still favors Republicans, but he added that Democrats could stand a chance.

"It’s not impossible for a Democrat to win if there’s a strong underlying Democratic trend" in "November," Sabato said. "But it’s unlikely, and even a strong Democratic showing in the Ninth would be a bad sign for the GOP. Obviously, a liberal Democrat won’t sell here. A moderate might. My early bet would certainly be on the Republican candidate - but I want to see nominees first."