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Actually, chess can start with fewer than 16 chessmen on one side. When the two players are of different skill, the stronger player may offer a handicap by starting without one or more chessmen ("give odds of a _____").

This is only a theory. It's based only upon my persumption of the world's setting.

Take a look at the chessboard for example.

Disregard the witch's side
Look at either side, there are 16 pieces
With more than 16, the game cannot start due to unfair advantage
With lesser than 16, the game cannot start due to incomplete chess formation
So therefore, disregard Erika's fatal Red statement in EP6, I believe that there are in truth 16 people on the island

Don't know if this theory has been stated earlier here, this is just my speculation

I think you're forgetting one thing :x

The Player

We need someone to move the pieces, the player is playing against himself so....

-becoming a billionaire starting from practically nothing
-owning a whole island in the izu arcipelago
-creating a 2km tunnel in that island and in all secret
-managing to keep a person from her birth till her adulthood (about 20 years in total) secluded in a secret mansion without incurring in any legal action despite the number of people involved.
-creating one of the most difficult riddle ever made and using it as a mean to decide the new family head
-becoming fluent in many different languages
-becoming one of the most knowledgeable person on western occultism (owning many incredibly rare books on the matter)

I think there are people in the real world who managed to do some of those things, but all of the above? I don't think so.

I'm kind of inclined to think he may have done any of the things he's reputed to do. Nobody even bats an eye when it's suggested he just likes to wander out of his study and not tell anyone.

That's precisely what bothers me about it. If nobody bats an eye when someone suggests he did something ridiculous, absolutely anyone can suggest he performed some nonsense, and it will be believed and will become part of the lore in the future. Notice how acceptance of more and more eccentricities in Kinzo grew over the course of the series -- in Ep1, Eva finds it ridiculous he would hide under the bed, and in Ep5, nobody bats an eye at him allegedly jumping out of the window. As a result, he may well have done nothing unusual at all, but because every bit of nonsense was believed and not refuted, believability of extra nonsense only grew.

I.e. a "Legend of Ushiromiya Kinzo" may be an even bigger legend than "Legend of the Witch", and grow in a very similar manner too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

-becoming a billionaire starting from practically nothing
-owning a whole island in the izu arcipelago

Known to be true, granted, but eccentricity does not enable these two things, rather, it makes them a bit harder.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

-creating a 2km tunnel in that island and in all secret

Ah, I'm not sure about that one. The tunnel may have existed on the island before he acquired it, for example, by being part of a secret military installation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

-managing to keep a person from her birth till her adulthood (about 20 years in total) secluded in a secret mansion without incurring in any legal action despite the number of people involved.

Not sure about this one either. The only hint of 'total isolation' we have is from Rosa's testimony, which is suspect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

-creating one of the most difficult riddle ever made and using it as a mean to decide the new family head

Creating a difficult riddle is not exactly an indication of being so eccentric. Using it as a means to decide the new family head sort of is, but I'm not sure Erika is correct in thinking it was it's original purpose.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

-becoming fluent in many different languages
-becoming one of the most knowledgeable person on western occultism (owning many incredibly rare books on the matter)

Owning rare books does not automatically mean you can read them. See Stakes, made in the vicinity of New York in the 1960s.

Nothing of what's left directly suggests Kinzo has been as eccentric as his family makes him out to be.

__________________

"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes."
— Paul K. Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge"

Actually, there's no real confirmation of that either way. Although Dlanor is probably more reliable than any of the other meta-characters, the true identity of the stakes is still never stated in red.

Regardless, just because the Stakes could be replicas doesn't mean that Kinzo was unaware of this fact.

But you're disregarding the red that says there are 17 people. I think it's a bit absurd to ignore it. Since it doesn't say "no more than" for the first time in the series, I'd say we're stuck at 17.

Spoiler for EP6:

Well no, I actually took that into consideration while writing this theory
I believe the original text was something like "What a pity. Even if we include you in, there will be only 17"
So therefore came two interpretations:

1, Erika's dead before even reaching the island, and therefore she's not regarded as a possible 18
2, Disregard whether Erika's dead or not, "Even if we count" she in, there will be only 17. So therefore the number is actually 16

For me I stuck with the 2nd interpretation
And I disregarded the witch's side because there were always changes in how many demons were on the chessboard
But my theory is that each EP may have only maximum to 16, and only 16 witches' pieces involved with the game (The Meta-world observers don't count)
EP1 and 2 are out of the question right now, since the real fantasy started in EP3

Pony theory, as much as it goes against all logic and red, has one thing going for it -- it follows plot structure.

This is why I like the pony theory.

But, then again, I "cheat" when it comes to solving mysteries.

A mystery's job is to herd the reader in a certain direction. To confuse and bewilder them, then shock them when the reveal is in place. But when someone writes a mystery, they are bound by a "higher power" and that's the adherence to a narrative that makes sense. A mystery must be solvable with hints given in the narrative. Yes, you can misdirect all you want, but there has to be proper build up in order to get the audience to accept your solution.

Not only that, but here is the important thing. A mystery's job is to make the actual solution look as unlikely as possible. The killer will have an "unbreakable" alibi, ect, ect, ect. If you really want to solve a mystery, you should be looking at the characters that A) seem the least likely to have been ABLE to do it, and B) would have the most dramatic impact on the plot if they did. In other words, the "impossible" solution that everyone dismisses.

In that respect, Umineko's insistence upon a set number of people still seems suspicious to me. Umineko tells you multiple times that Beatrice is a stranger, that no one recognizes her except by the portrait, that her personality is different from the other characters, that her voice is different, that her age doesn't match any other character's...but then laughs and tries to box you in with the ever-dwindling amount of people on the island.

I don't think the pony theory is completely right or perfect, but I think it's on the right track. The only immutable thing in a mystery is characterization and build up, not "red text". When everything about Beato and Battler's relationship is built up n a way that doesn't correspond to any of his relationships with the others on the island, it's time to accept that and form a hypothesis as to why, as opposed to trying to slot characters in without any hints that could be used to build a different "switch" hypothesis.

No, it doesn't, but it casts doubt on his occult knowledge as proof of eccentricity.

Fair enough.

Quote:

Originally Posted by musouka

The killer will have an "unbreakable" alibi, ect, ect, ect. If you really want to solve a mystery, you should be looking at the characters that A) seem the least likely to have been ABLE to do it, and B) would have the most dramatic impact on the plot if they did. In other words, the "impossible" solution that everyone dismisses.

Ryukishi seems to be a big fan of Agatha Christie, so I doubt you can use this method in its entirety to solve Umineko.

Christie was always big on the idea that mysteries should be solved by looking for the MOST likely person, not the LEAST; that is, the character who has the strongest motive to commit the crime, irregardless of alibi. EVERYONE must have the same opportunity to commit the murder. The mystery then becomes less about hunting for tiny clues and hard data, and more about the psychology of the crime itself.

Who in Umineko has a REASON to kill the Ushiromiya family?

Still, I can see your point about the pony theory. If there's anything that no one is expecting... Even so, how would you get around all that red text about the number of people on the island? Red text IS immutable in Umineko, if not in other mysteries.

From a narrative point of view the obvious candidate for culprit is Nanjo, Battler since the begin of the meta game has been set on proving that the culprit is neither his beloved family or the loyal servants he never said anything about his Grandpa's Dr., Ange went to Rokkenjima and prayed to get her family and those funny servants back, again nothing about the Dr. I know sometimes they treat Nanjo as a servant but he certainly isn't so he is the only way for Battler and Ange to attain their goal without bringing an illogical character X

Not sure about this one either. The only hint of 'total isolation' we have is from Rosa's testimony, which is suspect.

We also have Kawabata's pow.

-He's been bringing stuff to the "rear port" for 20 years, and it was stuff meant for a young lady, which he was never allowed to see.
-He's been doing that in all secrecy, he was even paid to keep his mouth shout and somewhat even threatened not to open it by Genji.

in addition:

-The conversation between Beato and Kinzo in 1967 we have seen has been confirmed to be true in red.

I think there are enough hints to claim that the probability that this Beatrice didn't exist or wasn't secluded are below 5%.

Anyway It seems I have misunderstood your question, since you were asking for eccentric actions he made rather than extraordinary.
However in that case I have:

- being a fanatic of occultism.
- claiming that the witch was real to the point of forcing the servants to believe in it (or pretend to).
- founding an orphanage where children are raised with the prospect of becoming underaged servants as their highest aspiration. They are even stripped of their original name.
- Closing himself into a study for several years, without seeing almost anyone.

Quote:

No, it doesn't, but it casts doubt on his occult knowledge as proof of eccentricity.

It doesn't. His books were confirmed to be very valuable. At max this gives additional hints about him being interested in stage magic or fake occultism as well. Which is yet another sign of eccentricity

Well no, I actually took that into consideration while writing this theory
I believe the original text was something like "What a pity. Even if we include you in, there will be only 17"
So therefore came two interpretations:

1, Erika's dead before even reaching the island, and therefore she's not regarded as a possible 18
2, Disregard whether Erika's dead or not, "Even if we count" she in, there will be only 17. So therefore the number is actually 16

For me I stuck with the 2nd interpretation
And I disregarded the witch's side because there were always changes in how many demons were on the chessboard
But my theory is that each EP may have only maximum to 16, and only 16 witches' pieces involved with the game (The Meta-world observers don't count)
EP1 and 2 are out of the question right now, since the real fantasy started in EP3

Spoiler:

The second interpretation does not kill Erika. In fact, it's completely irrelevant to her. Therefore, it can't be right, because Erika is killed. And you can't "disregard" the witch side, because if a red text says "17 people," it's 17 PEOPLE, not 17 people on the ningen side.

"EP1 and 2 are out of the question right now, since the real fantasy started in EP3"

That's absurd. There was clearly fantasy as early as episode 1. Or does Shannon having substantial numbers of conversations with a disembodied witch not count as fantasy? Or some high school age girls that turn into stakes and stab boys in the back? Or boys who can generate swords from their arms? I don't see what this is even saying.

Isn't he like the only one who's ever talked about 'fighting the whole family' in order to get what he wants? And then sacrificing his whole family in a fantasy scene, of course but...

Also he is usually alive after the first Twilight except for EP5 (when it all screwed up). And there are other clues about his source of magic knowledge, his willingness to order the servants, etc...

Except it's very clear that nobody really cares whether he marries Shannon or not. Rudolf, for example, had to of overhear George practicing in EP 2 but its pretty obvious he didn't say anything to anyone. Hideyoshi also seems to be okay with it when he found out in EP 1, while Eva was saying how she was glad Shannon was dead.

In EP 6 George clearly targeted Eva because he knew she would get in the way of his marriage to Shannon. I swear, this whole forbidden love stuff is way too overdone for George and Shannon.

Isn't he like the only one who's ever talked about 'fighting the whole family' in order to get what he wants? And then sacrificing his whole family in a fantasy scene, of course but...

Also he is usually alive after the first Twilight except for EP5 (when it all screwed up). And there are other clues about his source of magic knowledge, his willingness to order the servants, etc...

Anyways, maybe we don't know what the reason is, but it seems like he has some kind of reason to start.

I will agree that he might have a reason to kill most of the family. But some people I can't see him really plotting to kill. I don't see any reason for him to target Kumasawa, Genji, Kanon, and Jessica. And there is even less of a reason for him to target Shannon.

As far as I can see no one really has a motive for killing everyone. So I think the reason is more ... how shall I say.. different.

Ryukishi seems to be a big fan of Agatha Christie, so I doubt you can use this method in its entirety to solve Umineko.

I'm not talking about not looking for the person with the most to gain, or the most motive. Obviously, that comes into play. I'm talking about looking for the person that looks the least possible in terms of ability. I have never found Christie mysteries difficult to figure out, purely using the "narrative" method.

Basically, what I am trying to say is that the mystery will do what has the biggest "payoff", emotionally and with the logic used to commit the crime. Umineko, being a sort of "romantic mystery" in addition to "murder mystery" is no less constrained by the rules of basic narrative structure.

In this respect, all other theories put forth do not have an emotional payoff between Battler and the "fake-Beato." In these next lines "meaningful" basically means "deep, romantically tinged".

- Shannon has a few ties to Battler, but her strongest ties are overwhelmingly with George. The narrative never hints that she considers Battler a current option. They have no scenes together of note.

Spoiler for ep6:

Battler as Golden Sorcerer pays her no attention, and this is AFTER he knows the truth about Beato. I would think even her 'human' form would deserve some notice, considering how in love with her he is.

- Kanon has no meaningful emotional ties to Battler. All of them are with Jessica.

- Jessica has no meaningful emotional ties to Battler. All of them are with Kanon.

As the episodes progress, Beato's motivations become more and more firmly tied to Battler. For any of these characters to demonstrate none of this means that if they were revealed to be Beato, there would not be a sufficient pay off for the readers, who have become accustomed to seeing the Beato/Battler relationship in a nuanced light that also includes romantic love.

Therefore, there are only two options that really make sense. 1. Beato existed or exists in some physical, separate form that Battler has interacted with. (For a real Beato to also come out of no where is rather problematic too, though) 2. Beato does not exist at all. Not as a part of Shannon, Kanon, or Jessica. She is a construct that another construct (Meta Battler) has fallen in love with.