Energy Market Analysis - 30-10-2017

Gas prices were pushed higher on Friday afternoon following a sharp rise in oil prices, assisted by rising coal and a colder weather outlook for this week. However, Norwegian flows improved and the Pound strengthened against the Euro, limiting some of the gains.

The UK gas system is balanced this morning, helped by a rise in UKCS production as two outages have been resolved. Another outage at the Ormen Lange field in Norway has also ended, resulting in higher flows to the UK. Meanwhile, bullish movement on the oil market has calmed resulting in a stable outlook for this morning.

Market Open

Market Open

Improved renewable generation levels were expected at the weekend, helping the prompt shed from its price on Friday. Colder weather restricted bearish movement on the rest of the near-curve, while the far-curve was pushed higher by stronger Brent and coal.

Colder weather is expected to lift heating demand this week, helping contracts on the near-curve add to their price. The restart of the Tricastin power plant in France was also delayed by EDF, providing additional support to European markets. Increases for oil and coal continue to provide some bullish pressure on the far-curve but both markets have eased somewhat this morning.

Brent 1st-nearby prices have climbed above $60.5/b this morning for the first time since July 2015. On-going support was provided by the likely extension of OPEC/ non-OPEC output cuts, ignoring a slightly rise in US rig counts.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 46.64ppt and £45.94/MWh, respectively.

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