As the title states, just how likely is it that Scotland are going to leave the UK?

I would like to hear from residents of the UK be it English or Scottish exactly what your views are on this.

My own personal views are the following:

I think that the status quo is the most likely of all options and that the SNP are severely overestimating the willingness of the Scottish people. Why, because to be frank they're getting all the benefits with no cost (and before you say the oil, they get more spent on you per head then any other nation in the UK). I think the collapse of Labour in 2010 was the real reason why SNP got in (let's face it nobody was going to vote for Labour at that time) and that the reason they do so well is not because of any sense of independence in the Scottish people but for the fact that they are giving away a **** ton of benefits to everybody, be it free healthcare, cheap Uni or any other such stuff. Thus their support comes from domestic policies not from Scotland wanting independence.

I think its fairly likely they will vote independent, and looking at our ruling elites who can blame them? This country is in need of some fundamental and long lasting changes but our politicians who cannot think past the next election simply don't deliver- even if it looks likely to cost this Union its very existence. Labour and Conservatives have too good a deal going, and they know that it will continue to have a monopoly on power for the foreseeable future. You could argue things might not be much better in an independent Scotland, but at least they have the opportunity to try it differently and I can see exactly why they would want to take that opportunity.

We can cite financial reasons for or against independence all day long, but the issue is a bit more deep seated then that and the chances are that in the grand scheme of things it won't even change too much economically regardless of if they choose to stay or leave.

Personally, if I could vote (I was born in Scotland, lived there for four years and will be eligible for Scottish citizenship- but alas I can't vote) I would go for Devo Max. I am increasingly worried that independence will be the outcome however, and it will be a sad day to see the Union break up. I will probably apply for dual citizenship though, and would wish Scotland the best of luck.

(Original post by Azog 150)
I think its fairly likely they will vote independent, and looking at our ruling elites who can blame them? This country is in need of some fundamental and long lasting changes but our politicians who cannot think past the next election simply don't deliver- even if it looks likely to cost this Union its very existence. Labour and Conservatives have too good a deal going, and they know that it will continue to have a monopoly on power for the foreseeable future. You could argue things might not be much better in an independent Scotland, but at least they have the opportunity to try it differently and I can see exactly why they would want to take that opportunity.

We can cite financial reasons for or against independence all day long, but the issue is a bit more deep seated then that and the chances are that in the grand scheme of things it won't even change too much economically regardless of if they choose to stay or leave.

Personally, if I could vote (I was born in Scotland, lived there for four years and will be eligible for Scottish citizenship- but alas I can't vote) I would go for Devo Max.

Hope you don't mind; I'm new to Scottish Politics :/ Why do (some of) the Scots would want to leave the UK in the first place? - ergh... my poor knowledge in History =(. I do know the history way back in ancient times e.g. Mary of Scots and Elizabeth I but my knowledge of it ends there :/

No, I do not believe Scotland will vote for independence. Polls put about 2/3 of Scots wanting to maintain the union and I believe this is a too large majority for the SNP and others to shift by 2014. I think the SNP have overheated (as a consequence of utterly crap Scottish politicians in Edinburgh and crap politicians at our supranational parliament in London). I expect Scotland to vote for devo max (meaning independence could be a possibility again in the future) but I do not expect to see Scotland leaving the UK - especially as we are heading towards the referendum whilst the European Union is under increasing strain to even stay alive - the EU is Salmond's way out of the current union.

Also, I am sick of hearing about this referendum already, and I know this is an increasingly common sentiment up here in Scotland - I think the SNP have made a mistake in a two year campaign. People are going to get bored of hearing about independence and the sight of Fat Alex Salmond. I mean seriously? A two year campaign in the run up to the Referendum on Scottish Independence - is Salmond hoping that he can bore the Scottish people into submission?

(Original post by kka25)
Hope you don't mind; I'm new to Scottish Politics :/ Why do (some of) the Scots would want to leave the UK in the first place? - ergh... my poor knowledge in History =(. I do know the history way back in ancient times e.g. Mary of Scots and Elizabeth I but my knowledge of it ends there :/

Because people in Scotland share all the same gripes with our political system that people do in the rest of the UK. We take turns to be ruled by two parties that have ****ed up ruling this country time and time again and yet continue to get into power, controlling parliamentary majorities on minority votes. What's more, Scotland racks up very little Conservative votes and yet every few parliamentary terms has to put up with a Conservative government almost entirely voted in by England (and before you say anything I am no fan of Labour either). When did we last have a truly popular Prime Minister or ruling party?

And unlike us here in England, Scotland has a chance to do something about it in the form of independence. Even if an independent Scotland does ultimately end up suffering the exact same problems as the UK does currently, at least they will have had a chance to do it better which is more then the rest of us can currently hope for. Historical differences, nationalism, anti-English sentiment and a belief that Scotland is somehow 'oppressed' may play a role amongst a small minority, and that is reasoning I simply can't abide by. But for most of Scotland, I think its just a case of being fed up and I don't blame them because many in England feel the exact same way.

I also think that this quite frankly arrogant belief that many in England have that Scotland will not dare vote independent will only spur on Scottish support for independence. Many in England already seem to have brushed off the referendum as a foregone conclusion.

My solution would be federalisation of the UK and the increase of political power at the local level. I think anything less and this 305 year old Union will come to an abrupt end. I'd happily follow Scotland out of it if it meant I would no longer have to be ruled by a bunch of far-removed Westminster career politicians.

(Original post by kka25)
Hope you don't mind; I'm new to Scottish Politics :/ Why do (some of) the Scots would want to leave the UK in the first place? - ergh... my poor knowledge in History =(. I do know the history way back in ancient times e.g. Mary of Scots and Elizabeth I but my knowledge of it ends there :/

Regards royalty the Scottish Stewart family became the monarchy of England and Scotland in the early 1600s after Elizabeth the I of England died childless (which is why our current Queen is a direct descendent of Robert the Bruce - the monarch William Wallace (Braveheart) fought for. The political union happened a century later after the union of monarchy (called the "Union of the Crowns) in the early 1700s in the "Act of Union" when the Scottish and English parliaments both agreed to union - Scotland at the time was bankrupt after trying to set up unsuccessful colonies in South America and it's merchant class desperately wanted access to the trade routes that England had started to develop in the English Empire - which later became the British Empire - an empire Scots were very proud of before European colonial empires became unfashionable! England wanted to ensure Scotland didn't ally itself with France so agreed to union.

Scottish nationalism is more to do with anger at our political class than history. We Scots love England really and you will always be an old friend of Scotland regardless of union or not.

(Original post by Azog 150)
Because people in Scotland share all the same gripes with our political system that people do in the rest of the UK. We take turns to be ruled by two parties that have ****ed up ruling this country time and time again and yet continue to get into power, controlling parliamentary majorities on minority votes. What's more, Scotland racks up very little Conservative votes and yet every few parliamentary terms has to put up with a Conservative government almost entirely voted in by England (and before you say anything I am no fan of Labour either). When did we last have a truly popular Prime Minister or ruling party?

And unlike us here in England, Scotland has a chance to do something about it in the form of independence. Even if an independent Scotland does ultimately end up suffering the exact same problems as the UK does currently, at least they will have had a chance to do it better which is more then the rest of us can currently hope for.

My solution would be federalisation of the UK and the increase of political power at the local level. I think anything less and this 305 year old Union will come to an abrupt end.

I agree. And a sad day at that. I don't want Britain to split. But I don't like our political class

(I don't see Salmond as being any different however - he is basically a fat Tony Blair and is in bed with big business like Souter)

(Original post by sqldevil)
With defense firstly, all military personnel would be transferred to protect the UK rather then Scotland. In fact Scotland would need to develop its own army and assets.

I don't think Scottish people want to leave the UK. Its only a small minority. Most of them are fine how it is they get the same perks the rest of the UK gets which does benefit them alot.

From which tabloid did you extract this scaremongering bile? The British army is not England's army. Scotland owns its fair share of the hardware, and, in case you hadn't noticed, has its own regiments.

Incidentally, those in favour of independence cannot possibly be considered a "small minority". If that were the case then we wouldn't be having a referendum. There is easily enough support for independence to justify a debate/referendum on the issue - whether you personally support it or not.

I strongly suggest you consider binning that rag of a newspaper you're reading.

(Original post by TCD23)
I think that the status quo is the most likely of all options and that the SNP are severely overestimating the willingness of the Scottish people. Why, because to be frank they're getting all the benefits with no cost (and before you say the oil, they get more spent on you per head then any other nation in the UK). I think the collapse of Labour in 2010 was the real reason why SNP got in (let's face it nobody was going to vote for Labour at that time) and that the reason they do so well is not because of any sense of independence in the Scottish people but for the fact that they are giving away a **** ton of benefits to everybody, be it free healthcare, cheap Uni or any other such stuff. Thus their support comes from domestic policies not from Scotland wanting independence.

What are you talking about? The SNP didn't "get in" in 2010, they were already in. They were re-elected with an overall majority. An overall majority within a system which is DESIGNED to prevent an overall majority. That's epic in anyone's book. The reasons for it are more varied and complex than you suggest. Firstly, Labour's campaign was laughably nonsensical, if you could even refer to it as a campaign. Secondly, the Liberal Democrat vote literally collapsed. Thirdly, and importantly, the SNP haven't done a bad job. They aren't perfect, but they aren't bad either. They have protected the people of Scotland against the devestating cutbacks of the Tories in London. They have protected Scotland where Labour would have failed - big time.

So which has its priorities right? The London government, which stores nuclear warheads on Scottish soil, at the cost of billions in maintenance, so that it can prance around on the international political stage and pretend it's still a big shot in the world? A London government which sends our armed forces to fight halfway around the world with a complete disregard for due procedure and international law? Or a Scottish government, which provides free education to many (the same free education that Brown and co enjoyed - and then subsequently demolished)? A Scottish government which prioritises healthcare in various forms (free prescriptions etc), instead of harbouring nuclear warheads that we neither need, nor have the independent power to use?

I think you'll find that the billions saved from withdrawing from such foreign conflicts and the removal of a nuclear arsenal will have a dramatically positive effect on our public services. Scotland receives more from the treasury because Scotland inputs more to the treasury. In fact, Scotland inputs more than it gets in return, on average. Do the maths. Independence is a no-brainer.

(Original post by Tycho)
From which tabloid did you extract this scaremongering bile? The British army is not England's army. Scotland owns its fair share of the hardware, and, in case you hadn't noticed, has its own regiments.

Yes, Scotland has its own regiments. What you neglect to mention is that Scotland greatly struggles to fulfil its recruitment quota, hence why 20% of the Royal Regiment of Scotland is made up of Fijians. Not to mention its a much more complicated matter then simply taking Scotland's share of the hardware.

However, the issue of the Armed Forces shouldn't really have an impact upon the independence decision. An independent Scotland wouldn't be engaging in many of the ridiculous overseas adventures that the British Armed Forces are currently sent on, and it would be perfectly capable of setting up a Self Defence Force even if it would be an expensive, timely and complicated process.

Basically, debates over what would happen to the Armed Forces are kind of missing the point.

Absolute rubbish. The most popular option by far is "devo max" with every poll giving that a majority.

they get more spent on you per head then any other nation in the UK).

This is not true. And this sort of racist rubbish is just arrogant and misinformed lies.

If you actually look at the per capita figures, then London is by far the most subsidised region (and this doesn't even take into account "hidden subsidies like the fact all the organs of state are based their and all the jobs that creates, or things like the Olympics). London is given the greatest subsidy of them all: being the UK's capital city. In turn, major businesses want to be close to the centre of political power and locate there. There is nothing inherent about London that makes it economically successful - just the fact that the rest of the country has consented to it being where all the functions of state and power are based.

The GERS figures published by National Statistics demonstrate that Scotland has had more revenue raised in it than government expenditure on it for about five years. In the last, it was in deficit - but less of a deficit than the UK as a whole, proportionately. So if anything, Scotland is subsidising much of England!

I don't even mind subsidising parts of England! That's how nations function.

(Original post by Tycho)
What are you talking about? The SNP didn't "get in" in 2010, they were already in. They were re-elected with an overall majority. An overall majority within a system which is DESIGNED to prevent an overall majority. That's epic in anyone's book. The reasons for it are more varied and complex than you suggest. Firstly, Labour's campaign was laughably nonsensical, if you could even refer to it as a campaign. Secondly, the Liberal Democrat vote literally collapsed. Thirdly, and importantly, the SNP haven't done a bad job. They aren't perfect, but they aren't bad either. They have protected the people of Scotland against the devestating cutbacks of the Tories in London. They have protected Scotland where Labour would have failed - big time.

So which has its priorities right? The London government, which stores nuclear warheads on Scottish soil, at the cost of billions in maintenance, so that it can prance around on the international political stage and pretend it's still a big shot in the world? A London government which sends our armed forces to fight halfway around the world with a complete disregard for due procedure and international law? Or a Scottish government, which provides free education to many (the same free education that Brown and co enjoyed - and then subsequently demolished)? A Scottish government which prioritises healthcare in various forms (free prescriptions etc), instead of harbouring nuclear warheads that we neither need, nor have the independent power to use?

I think you'll find that the billions saved from withdrawing from such foreign conflicts and the removal of a nuclear arsenal will have a dramatically positive effect on our public services. Scotland receives more from the treasury because Scotland inputs more to the treasury. In fact, Scotland inputs more than it gets in return, on average. Do the maths. Independence is a no-brainer.

First of all no need to be rude.

Secondly you are dead wrong mate. First of all I said THE SNP ARE DOING A GREAT JOB LOOKING AFTER SCOTTISH PEOPLE, loud enough for you, you would be crazy not to vote them. Thirdly, the vote collapsed and as you said so did Labours, tottally different from why SNP got in mate. Fourthly, cutting down completely the military budget would be right but keep the nukes, we shouldn't be getting involved at all and we need to reduce our belated military budget ASAP, so we're agreed there. In fact idiot we agree on almost very point apart from one.

Your absolute Bull**** on the economy of the UK. Scotland do not put in more what utter ****e, because South East England does by miles. Why isn't English spending higher then? You are completely wrong, please show me an ACTUAL REPORT which shows that Scotland puts more in then England.

Fact of the matter is England puts the most in and gets the least out.