Jackson: Interim US senator Chiesa to be sworn in Monday

The first Republican U.S. senator to represent New Jersey in more than 30 years will be sworn in this afternoon, and Jeffrey Chiesa will have little time before he’s confronted with votes that could shape the future of immigration reform.

By extension, Chiesa’s votes also could provide a boost or add baggage to Governor Christie’s possible run for president in 2016, and even to his bid for a second term as governor in November.

New senators usually get a few weeks at the start of congressional sessions to learn the system. But Chiesa will immediately be presented with the complex web of issues contained in the immigration bill crafted by the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” senators.

“He comes in to the dinner party at the time of the main course,” said Ross Baker, a Senate scholar and political scientist at Rutgers. “He’s missed the cocktail hour, missed the appetizers, and they’re getting right into the turkey.”

Christie took pains last week to distance himself from any Senate decisions by Chiesa, a longtime friend and former chief counsel who previously served as a federal prosecutor and was most recently state attorney general.

“Jeff was somebody who could tell me the truth even when he disagreed, and I assume he’ll do the same in the United States Senate,” Christie said at the news conference Thursday when he announced the interim replacement for the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

“If he calls me and asks me, ‘Hey, there’s a vote for cloture on the following bill; what do you think I should do?’ I’m going to hang up. I’ve got enough to do here,” Christie said.

But the fact remains that Chiesa is a senator only because Christie appointed him, especially if Chiesa is part of a minority of senators who help Democrats get over combative 60-vote procedural thresholds such as cloture votes.

“If he votes the way conservatives are happy to see him vote, that will redound to Chris Christie’s benefit,” said Republican political strategist Bill Pascoe. “If he goes down and starts voting like Frank Lautenberg, I think primary voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina and caucus-goers in Iowa might look askance at that. Chiesa is now Christie’s arm in Washington.”

Christie may also have to worry, however, if his appointee starts to cast votes that are not in line with New Jersey’s more liberal leanings on federal issues. It’s not likely, but a high-profile vote by Chiesa could boomerang back to the governor’s race in November.

Christie ordered a special primary in August and a general election in mid-October to fill the seat of Lautenberg, whose first election in 1982 led to him succeeding Nicholas Brady, the last Republican to represent the state in the Senate. Brady had been appointed by Gov. Thomas Kean to fill the remainder of the term of Democratic Sen. Harrison Williams, who resigned after a conviction for corruption.

Candidates hoping to succeed Chiesa in October — Republicans Steve Lonegan and Alieta Eck and Democrats Cory Booker, Rush Holt, Frank Pallone and Sheila Oliver — spent the weekend gathering the 1,000 signatures that must be filed on petitions by 4 p.m. today.

Shortly after that petition deadline, Chiesa will be sworn in for an 18-week term as senator, and the next three weeks will be consumed with immigration reform, including some issues that sharply divide the Republican Party.

Chiesa has not given a detailed interview since his appointment, and his only policy statement at the news conference with Christie emphasized border protection as a priority.

That’s a safe Republican answer, but the key question will be how much border protection, and whether he will oppose the overall immigration package if he wants more than the Senate agrees to mandate.

The four Republicans in the Gang of Eight, Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Marco Rubio of Florida, signed onto an agreement with four Democrats, including Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, that set a “trigger” of catching or repelling 90 percent of attempted border crossings in “high-risk sectors” of the border with Mexico.

Once that is met, the 11 million people who do not have legal status will have a chance to apply to become “registered provisional immigrants” and ultimately seek permanent residency and citizenship.

But some in the GOP, who in past elections vowed to oppose any legislation that provides “amnesty” for those here illegally, are seeking a tougher border standard, such as giving Congress or governors along the Mexico border the power to decide at a future date if the 11 million can apply for new status.

Other Republicans, such as McCain, have pointed to the results of the 2012 race between President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney to say the party has no choice but to change its image as hostile to immigrants. Republicans saw their presidential candidate’s share of the Latino vote — one of the fastest-growing parts of the electorate — shrink from 40 percent in 2004 to just 23 percent last year.

Frank Sharry, executive director of the group America’s Voice, which is advocating a path to citizenship for the immigrants, said he’s hoping Chiesa gets to the point where he can support the bill. Sharry noted that Christie has spoken in favor of comprehensive reform in past media appearances.

“If this new guy is Christie’s guy, and most of the field for 2016, with the exception of [Texas Sen. Ted] Cruz, has staked out a pro-reform position, one would hope we would get a yes vote out of him,” Sharry said.

Over the coming weeks, Sharry expects there will be two types of amendments from Republicans: “poison pills” designed to kill the overall bill, and changes to build support and increase the bill’s chances of passing.

Democrats have discussed other amendments, such as requiring that immigrants in same-sex marriages get the same rights as heterosexual couples, and using the immigration bill as a platform to bring gun control back to the floor. But Sharry believes those issues may not actually come to votes because Democrats in the Gang of Eight do not want to see them derail the overall bill.

A good place for Chiesa to look would be Rubio, who also is widely mentioned as a potential presidential candidate in 2016. Though part of the Gang of Eight, Rubio has said he will propose a tougher border standard as an amendment to try to attract more Republican support.

“That’ll be the key moment,” Sharry said. “Someone like Chiesa should be saying, ‘If this passes, you got me.’ It will be designed to bring 12, 15, maybe 20 Republicans on­board so they can go back home and say, ‘I wasn’t confident the bill was tough enough on border security, and now I am.’Ÿ”