SJSharks - Saturday Bases

Friday: 3-2...
I am very happy that I was able to have another profitable day on
Friday. This week has been fantastic for me and I hope it continues.
That being said, I am kicking myself because I have been my own worst
enemy. For the 2nd time this week my only losses for the day came on
"added" plays that weren't originally on my card. I decided to look at
this week from a bigger picture and the #s are laid out below. It goes
without saying that the absurd amount of hours I've spent researching
for my original card has really paid off for me, but those last minute
"greedy" adds have killed some profits. I am playing right into the
bookies hands with the added plays and it's cost me. Anyways, onto
Saturday... If someone see's the word "added" in my thread, please shoot
me lol. In all seriousness, my original card on Saturday will the only
plays I make for the day.
This Week: 16-8
This Weeks Original Card: 16-2 (88%)
This Weeks Added Plays to the Card: 0-6

Cardinals ML (-115) @ Cubs: On Saturday we have the
opportunity to back a very hot Reds team at a good price. The line is
this low due to Jeff Samardzija recent outings being solid. He has
pitched well going 2-1 with a 1.80 era but he is still a sub-par
pitcher, who is 7-8 with a 4.25 era this season. He also struggles in
day starts going 3-5 with a 6.35 era. Saturday's contest is a gonna be a
bright sunny afternoon day game. The Cardinals are countering with a
hot pitcher of their own in Joe Kelly. Entering Saturday's contest Joe
Kelly is 1-3 but has a solid 2.78 era. Joe Kelly hasn't given up more
then 3 runs in any start this season. If one of these 2 starters is
gonna implode on Saturday, 2012's history has shown it's more likely
gonna be Jeff Samardzija. Both of these starters are right handed
pitchers and entering this contest the Cubs rank #29 against righties,
meanwhile the Cardinals rank #3. Both the Reds and Pirates were
victorious on Friday night in the heated NL Central. The big bats from
the Cardinals have had success against Jeff Samardzjia... Molina,
Beltran, Holliday and Jay are a combined 8-20 with a .400 average. The
Cubs have never seen Joe Kelly pitch before which should give him an
advantage navigating through the line up the first few times. The
Cardinals know they need continue their winning ways (W4, 7-3 L10) and
handle business vs. a weaker opponent in the Cubs on Saturday. At a
good price, sign me up

Nationals ML (-123) @ Brewers: The Nationals getting blasted
8-0 on Friday is a blessing in disguise for Nats backers on Saturday.
This team has been extremely hot and had been scoring runs at will prior
to Friday's game. This game should serve as a bit of a reality check
and should bring those egos back down a bit. I expect the Nationals to
get right back on track with their winning ways on Saturday. Beyond that
angle, we have the favorable pitching advantage in this game. The
Nationals will be sending arguably the hottest pitcher in the league to
the hill in Jordan Zimmerman. He is hasn't lost since June 22nd against
Baltimore, in a game which he only allowed 2 runs. This season he has
only allowed more then 2 runs 1 time all year and that a was 3 spot
against Boston. He has given up 1 run or less in 6 straight starts. His
era in his last 3 outings is a jaw dropping 0.50. On the other side of
the hill the Brewers will be countering with Randy Wolf, who honestly
should already be retired. He has his moments, but his 3-6 record and a
5.46 era isn't something to write home about. The best years are behind
this 13 year veteran and he will face a potent Nationals line up that
will light him up on Saturday. The Nats have several guys with good
numbers vs. Wolf. Ryan Zimmerman is 4-11 with a .364 avg, Adam LaRoche
is 7-22 with a .311 avg, Jesus Flores is even 3-6 with a .500 avg. The
Brewers Cody Ransom is the only person who has ever seen Jordan
Zimmerman before (1-3 .333 avg). That plays right into another angle I
like alot. Zimmerman should have the upper hand navigating through the
Brewers line up the first few times through the batting order. The
Brewers will find out really quickly how good Zimmerman is. I was
tempted to roll with the RL here but the since the ML line is a good
price, I am just gonna take that.

Reds ML (-155) @ Rockies: The most chalky play on my card is
warranted since it's the hottest team in Baseball. The Reds enter this
contest winners of 8 in a row and they are steamrolling in July with an
ridiculous 16-2 mark. They will square off against a Rockies team who
just traded their starting 2B in Marco Scudaro. This wasn't going
anywhere anytime soon of course, but they have definitely waved the
towel. The Reds will be sending their ace Johnny Cueto in this game.
Cueto is 12-5 with a 2.23 era on the season, he is also 3-0 with a 1.45
era in his last 3 starts. Cueto did struggling in an earlier start this
year vs the Rockies allowing 5 runs on 11 hits, but the Rockies line up
he faced on May 25th and the line up he faces on Saturday is much
different. The biggest piece is Troy Tuluwitzki not being in the line
up. Troy's valuable to the Rockies really shows with him being out.
Cargo still gets his because he is a phenom, but teams can pitcher
around Cargo, because they don't have to worry about Troy being the line
up. Instead the Rockies have Michael Cuddyer in the 4th spot. If your
team is batting Cuddyer in the clean up spot, you obviously have some
major problems. The Rockies will be sending left hander Christian
Friedrich to the mound. He is 5-7 with a 5.71 era this season, 1-1 with a
4.60 era in his last 3 starts. Friedrich has also been absolutely AWFUL
at home this year (2-4 with a 8.23 era). The south paw will have a hard
time shutting down the Reds who are #6 in the league vs. Lefties. The
Reds should have no problem getting the lead in this contest, allowing
their ace to hand the rock over to the #1 bullpen in the late stages, en
route to win #9 in a row.

Tigers ML (-127) @ Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays were able to walk away with a pretty impressive victory on
Friday. The joys of that victory will be short lived though. On
Saturday the newly acquired Anibal Sanchez will be making his debut for
the Tigers. On the season Sanchez is 5-7 with a 3.94 era. He didn't get
any help from a anemic Marlins offense. Sanchez enters Saturday's
contest having performed well in 3 straight contents all on the road
against the Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals. In those 3 starts he allowed 3
runs or fewer and had a nice combined 18 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio.
Sanchez will wanna have a good first outing to impressive his new
teammates. On the other side of the hill the Blue Jays will be
countering with a struggling Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez is 6-7 with a
4.61 era, but the wheels have fallen off in his last 3 starts, where has
has gone 1-1 with an era of 7.41. The Tigers are ranked #5 against
right handed pitching and they should be able to have their way with a
struggling Alvarez. This feels like a very good spot for the Tigers to
get back on track after dropping their last 2 games.

Saturday's card has some tough lines and even tougher totals. I am gonna
lay off the totals and ride these 4 money line plays. I also wish I
could throw a dog into the mix, but I am struggling to pinpoint which
dog I think will have a day. Id much rather not try and force anything
that doesn't need to be forced.

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