In his career finale, a pioneering investor aims to lead a massive shift in communications.

Last week, Japanese investment giant SoftBank announced that it had closed $93 billion in committed capital for its massive Vision Fund, putting it within striking distance of the $100 billion target it announced last year. The Vision Fund dwarfs even the world’s biggest private equity vehicles, including the $22.5B mega fund that Apollo Global Management announced last month set to have been the largest in recent history. The Vision Fund would exceed the size of the five biggest private equity funds combined, according to investment research firm Pitchbook.

ARM acquisition provides a launchpad into IoT

Since the Internet boom of the late ‘90s, Softbank has set the pace for tech investing, betting huge sums to chase the rapid growth of the Internet, then retail distribution via online portals. It has made tens of billions in returns from investments in companies from Alibaba, to Yahoo and Supercell Oy. The first closing of the Vision Fund comes just three months after Softbank’s founder, Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son made the biggest bet of his career with the $32 billion acquisition of chipmaker ARM Holdings Plc. ARM provides technology for 95% of all smartphones and seems poised to play a central role in the emerging “Internet of Things” (IoT) market that will network devices, vehicles, and buildings via remote sensors and processors. “ARM will be the center of the Internet of Things, in which everything will be connected,” he told reporters. “IoT is going to be the biggest paradigm shift in human history (and) we have always invested at the beginning of every paradigm shift.”

Venture capital vehicles, known for making the types of tech investments the Vision Fund is targeting, are typically even smaller than the giant private equity funds. For example, Technology Crossover Ventures’ 2007 fund VII was one of the biggest in history at only $3 billion. Only a small group of the hundreds of venture funds have established vehicles that total more than $1 billion.

Which markets will bloom with Vision Fund investment?

Industry observers wonder whether a behemoth investor of this size with considerable technology synergies will hit the ecosystem of venture investment like an asteroid landing on a desert island. According to analyst Kyle Stanford, the specter of price inflation for early-stage investments is already haunting the investment meetings at venture firms. “The fear is all rooted in the 2014, 2015 investment environment, where there were tourist investors and valuations were getting out of control, and when valuations get too high it limits exit opportunities,” Stanford explains. “When you see a fund of $100 billion coming in already making big headliner deals, I think that fear is going to come back.”

Those headliner deals depend on a healthy crop of well-financed growth stage deals, which have been on the decline even as overall investment activity has picked up, with first financing activity falling for seven consecutive quarters.

First financing activity has fallen for seventh consecutive quarters

Source: Pitchbook

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Over the short term, competition for top tier deals will heat up startup valuations, but the Vision Fund is also bound to have a profound impact on the kinds of technologies that get to market and their pace of development. $100 B in ambitious capital will drive investors to expand their investment activity to new technologies and markets.

One candidate is precision ag. With its ambition, its vision and it’s unique perspective as a Japanese company, Softbank seems set to play in the next chapter of the telecommunications revolution– beyond the internet, beyond urban networks to address the big challenge of feeding a population of 9 billion.

By 2050, 14 of the world’s 20 biggest metropolises will be in Asia and Africa, including Jakarta, Manila, Karachi, Kinshasa and Lagos as well as Tokyo, Shanghai. and Mumbai, according to a projection by Demographia. It takes about 1 acre to feed the average U.S. consumer. China only has about 0.2 acres of arable land per citizen, and an estimated 20% of that land is contaminated with toxic pollution. As a result, Chinese have been investing aggressively outside of China to produce food for their home market. High profile purchases include Australia’s biggest dairy operation and US-based Smithfield Foods.

Precision agriculture is a “must win” market for IoT leadership

As the world’s population grows, outright purchase of existing food production facilities will not suffice. Technology will be essential to feed burgeoning populations. Precision agriculture will be more than enabling technology, it will be essential for survival; to feed an increasingly crowded planet. This will be a “must win” flagship market for major technology and communications companies, from Intel and Softbank’s ARM to communications companies like Softbank’s Sprint, Verizon, BT and Telstra.

Everywhere you look people are trying to do more with less. Reduce costs, increase efficiency, reduce energy use, recover resources. There are strong economic drivers to do all of these things, which also happen to be sustainable.

Ostara produces a slow release fertilizer product, Crystal Green(TM) from wastewater. Calera, a Khosla Ventures backed company whose technology is part of a new infrastructure designed to view carbon, not as a pollutant, but as a resource. Calera might be accused of having a Superman complex in the cleantech sector, in that their technology simultaneously contributes to solving two of the most pressing environmental issues of our time: climate change and water scarcity. Calera sequesters carbon from power plants, produces a low carbon cement and helps to desalinate water.

The CASTion Corporation has an Ammonia Recovery Process (ARP) which can produce an ammonia fertilizer product from wastewater and recently won a $27.1M contract with the City of New York to provide a cost effective method for the City to achieve compliance at its 26th Ward Wastewater Treatment plant.Oberon FMR concluded the quartet. Oberon takes wastewater from the food processing industry, and through the application of some clever biotechnology (single cell protein synthesis), produces a value added, high protein, fish meal replacement for use in the aquaculture industry.

A few key take-aways:

1. This is about Costs

To get out of the starting gate with wastewater technologies in this area, you have to have a compelling value proposition. Resource recovery can enable a technology provider to off-set operational and capital costs and thereby provide a cost effective solution to their clients.

Ahren Britton, CTO with Ostara put it very succinctly with the observation, “as a standalone wastewater treatment technology, we won’t always be the cheapest way to remove phosphorus; as a fertilizer production company, we might not compete with current ore prices, but put the two together, and that’s what makes for the winning proposition.”

David Delasanta, President of CASTion noted that the decision by the City of New York to go with their ARP system on a new project was driven by economics. The City had a regulatory requirement to remove ammonia and the ARP system represented the lowest cost option occupying the smallest footprint. The City in fact sole-sourced this option from CASTion.

Fish Farm outside Shanghai / Photo: Ivan Walsh on flickr

The Sustainability and political angle can help to push these projects over the line, as the person who finally signs off on expenditure is likely to be a political animal. However, to get this far in the process, you first have to convince the people on the ground that this is a good idea, and their concerns tend to be less politically motivated and more related to, ‘Will this work and how much will it cost?‘.

Seth Terry, Oberon VP of Operations said they have found that the Corporate Sustainability angle of their approach to turn food processing wastewater into a feedstock for fish meal replacement production, has piqued the interest of a number of major Corporations and was one of the factors which helped them to secure a contract with Miller Coors to construct a full-scale demonstration facility at their site.

There is a monetary value to a company in terms of brand value to be able to show its shareholders that instead of generating a waste product which required disposal, they were able to ‘up-cycle’ the resources in their wastewater and in doing so, off-set the unsustainable harvesting of biomass from oceans to produce fish-meal for fish farms.

2. Resource Recovery is becoming a geo-political and security issue

Certain resources such as phosphorus are becoming a geo-political issue. China has recently put an export tax on phosphorus to discourage the export of this valuable commodity, to preserve it and keep it at home to enable food production. China is known for its ability to take a long-term view on things and this is an early indicator of how important this resource may become. It is worth noting that like oil, phosphorus resources are found in a number of unstable regions of the world.

3. Companies which succeed in this area need to know two markets

The flip side of producing a product while treating a waste, is that you need to simultaneously build an outlet and channels to market for your product, at the same time as you are developing the infrastructure to produce it. This is challenging when working with a variable feedstock (wastewater) and when the quantities you produce, initially, do not make a dent in the larger market for that commodity.

To succeed, companies need to understand the wastewater treatment market and also understand the market for the commodity they are producing.

In the case of Calera, this means they have to know the concrete and aggregate business. In the case of Oberon, they have to know the fish-meal business. Ostara and CASTion both have to understand the dynamics of the fertilizer industry. When you hear Calera CEO Brent Constanz speak about the nuances of the concrete and aggregate market, and then switch back to the importance of piloting on different wastewater streams, you get a feel for the level and depth of understanding required to succeed in straddling these divergent worlds.

At least a part of the sustainable business advantage these companies have, is their ability to understand and create a business model which meets customers needs on both sides of the fence. Companies that can do this are pulling away from the herd. When you combine this with technical know-how, continued innovation and a strong IP position, you have a sustainable first mover advantage which will be difficult for a ‘me-too’ to catch up with in the short term.

The next Webinar in our BlueTech Tracker(TM) Series is on Thursday July 29th at 12 noon PST and will put the spotlight on Microbial Fuel Cells and Bioelectrochemical systems. This group of technologies has the potential to generate electricity from wastewater and produce fuels and chemicals which can be sold.Again the approach is the same, how to squeeze some value out of that wastewater.Paul O’Callaghan is Principal of O2 Environmental, a consultancy group providing water technology market expertise, founder of the BlueTech Innovation Forum and co-author of ‘Water Technology Markets 2010′.

de Margerie’s statement made quite a splash. Here was one of the top five oil companies in the world, and the CEO was saying there’s a plateau coming. He put the plateau at 100m barrels a day. At that time the world was producing about 85m.

After that I personally, publicly asked a CEO of a major oil company to comment on de Margerie’s prediction. He acknowledged the plateau was real. He said, “I’m not sure I’m going to subscribe to the 100 number, but there’s a plateau coming.”

Shortly before that I spoke to the head of the the French Petroleum Institute (IFP), and they confirmed that their modeling showed the same thing. They pegged it at a somewhat lower number.So here we have substantial people saying there’s a plateau coming and yet nobody acknowledges it publicly. Nobody wants to discuss it. Nobody really wants to act on it.

Causes

Now you’ll ask the reasons for the plateau. First of all there is a technical model that predicts a plateau, courtesy of PFC Energy in DC, but if you want to speak conversationally, the reasons are multifarious. [Read more…]