Doomben Race 8: Doomben 10000 1350m

22/05/2015: The true state of the track is going to be a major issue for several runners. The wetter it is the more likely the Srikandi/Our Boy Malachi quinella, as both love wet conditions, and with showers forecast it does look like dampness will be the order of the day. Big Money is the speckie of the race at odds running third up into a damp track based on his strong second up effort behind Hot Snitzel. Scissor Kick is difficult to leave out based on his soft track run in the Al Aged Stakes and I am assuming the good track at this level last run was the problem for what looked an average run. If it was drier I would entertaining Knoydart, Charlie Boy, Rock Sturdy and especially Generalife with more conviction but I am still slotting them in regardless. For a number of reasons I am risking the rest of the field (see risks and outclassed sections).

There will be plenty of early pace most likely set by Our Boy Malachi and Nite Rocker which will allow the likes of Generalife, Scissor Kick and Charlie Boy to become contenders half way down the running. I don’t fancy the back markers though as I believe the horses ahead of them will receive better runs pace wise.

CHANCES

Plus and Minus Factors

Order

Margin

Our Boy Malachi

PLUS: Three from three in wet, leads can get easy sectionals, two from two distance.

A

0

MINUS: Nil.

Srikandi

PLUS: Seven from ten career, two from three track, two from two heavy, gets good run.

B

0.25

MINUS: Slightest query on last start uncharacteristic slow out.

Scissor Kick

PLUS: Group 1 one length defeat to Dissident All Aged when checked early, one from one heavy, improver.

C

1.25

MINUS: Slow starts no help.

Big Money

PLUS:Two from three track, four from seven plus two seconds in wet, ready third up.

D

1.75

MINUS: Wfa for A position.

Generalife

PLUS: Another unlucky in All Aged protesting.

E

2

MINUS: 35 days, just average in wet.

RISK HORSES

RISKY

Temple Of Boom (great horse but are winning days over?), Boban (impossible to follow, better dry track anyway), Fontelina (heartbreaker, so close a few times but big ask here), Sacred Star (first up into tough group one, scratched recently concerns), Flamingo Star (rated highly but first up this class first Oz run would be massive effort), Time For War (big run last week as pushed early, just watch today at wfa), Bring Me The Maid (would be herculean effort from last for mare against this field).