Tax Shock Fading As Election Force

Tax Shock Fading As Force In Legislative Election

In November 1991, New Jersey voters retaliated against state legislators who had approved a big tax increase by throwing dozens of them out of office.

The legislature had been under Democratic control. After the election, Republicans ruled both chambers by veto-proof majorities.

This was a political upheaval so mammoth it sent shock waves across the country, as it was widely viewed as an event that could be repeated in any state where taxpayers mounted an organized rebellion.

Nowhere did the ground shake more than in Connecticut, which was in the midst of massive citizen protests against the new income tax.

A year later, leaders of the anti-income-tax movement still believe this state's election Nov. 3 will be a replay of New Jersey 1991.

But few, if any, top political strategists in either the Democratic or Republican parties expect that to be the case.

In fact, it's entirely possible that the newly elected General Assembly will be nearly the same, politically and ideologically, as the one that incurred the ire of so many voters by passing the income tax in August 1991.

The Democrats, who provided the vast majority of the votes for the income tax, may well retain control of both houses, though by smaller margins than their current 87-64 in the House and 20-16 in the Senate.

If that happens, it would be a crushing defeat for the anti-tax movement, which needs a Republican landslide to have any hope of repealing the income tax over a veto by Gov. Lowell P. Weicker Jr.

After all the turmoil of the past 14 months, it may seem hard to believe that voters would opt for the status quo over the heave-ho.

What happened?

The presidential race has begun to go the Democrats' way, for one thing, and that helps Democratic candidates all the way down

the line.

Secondly, the economy has emerged as the dominant political issue of the year and, while it's not clear either party has a better economic message in legislative races, this hurts Republicans by stealing attention from their best issue: the income tax.

Also, the income tax helped solve the state budget crisis, as the state recently achieved its first surplus in five years. That complicates matters for income-tax opponents as voters have begun to question them more closely about what they have to offer as an alternative.

As a result, perhaps, many candidates who are for "repeal" are calling for a gradual phase-out of the tax as budgetary conditions permit.

That may have some appeal, but it also may come off as an attempt to have it both ways -- an ax-the-tax message with a dull edge.

"The income tax is essentially defused as an issue," said Edward L. Marcus, chairman of the state Democratic Party.

His Republican counterpart, Richard Foley, wouldn't go that far, but said the income tax clearly is not the first thing on people's minds, and therefore will not be the deciding factor in many legislative races.

Rep. Jonathan W. Pelto, D-Mansfield, who manages a centralized campaign effort for Democratic House candidates, says he had expected an all-out assault on incumbents and income-tax supporters this fall.

Instead, he said, "the anti-income tax, anti-incumbent movement is just not materializing as an important electoral force."

In another wing of the Legislative Office Building, Pelto's Republican counterparts, Donald W. Downes and Joseph D. Shilinga, said their party has a shot at a slim majority in the House.

"We think our numbers rise. Whoever holds the majority will hold it by a narrow margin," Downes said. "We're not talking about a blowout here."

As for the Senate, David J. McQuade, a Democratic strategist, said he's optimistic the Democrats will keep control, although his seat-by-seat analysis shows a possible range of 19-17 Republican to 22-14 Democratic.

Foley said he figures each party has 16 Senate seats pretty well pinned down, with four races "up in the air." In the House, he said, it looks like 70 seats for each party, with 11 tossups.

He said the GOP definitely will gain seats, and could win a narrow majority in one or both houses.

Marcus said he's positive his party will not relinquish control of either chamber, and might even widen its margin. "The opportunity is there to have, not just a majority, but a substantial majority," he said.

How substantial? Marcus said it's possible the Democrats could win as many as 90 seats in the House and 26 in the Senate. Joseph C. Markley, a former Republican senator who is executive director of the Connecticut Taxpayers Committee, scoffed at such talk. "There's a lot of whistling through the graveyard going on."

He cited polls, including the latest Courant/Connecticut Poll taken Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, that show one of four voters "much less likely" to vote for a legislator who supported the income tax.

"I'll take that voting bloc anytime," Markley said.

He also said it's not a veto-proof Republican majority that he's aiming for, but a veto-proof majority to repeal the tax, comprising Democrats as well as Republicans.