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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Portland school construction bond election tightening up

While the population sleeps, Multnomah County election results inevitably shift to the left, and the Portland school tax construction bond election is no exception to the rule. Just after 3 a.m., some new results were posted by the county elections bureau, and they show the race getting closer. The no votes are still ahead, but by far less than they were a few hours ago. The margin for the no votes is now only about 1.5%, whereas just after midnight it was about 5%. Here are the latest numbers:

That's a margin of only 1,513 votes. It's not clear at this late hour how many more votes are to be counted; if last November is any indication, it could be weeks before the final tallies are available. Multnomah County is not promising any further updates until about 4:00 this afternoon. Our earlier comments on the apparent outcome of the election are here.

UPDATE, 6:46 a.m.: The O is reporting now that "nearly 85 percent" of the votes have been counted. That would leave about 18,000 votes left to be counted. They'd have to be about 54.5% yes to 45.5% no for the bond measure to pass. Seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

At the current trend, I'd actually bet that the bond passes (but I wouldn't put much money on it). Late ballots - those counted after 8pm - have been breaking 57% in favor. The most recent batch broke 59% in favor. The bond needs 54.5% of remaining ballots to go "yes" in order to pass. I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome, but I think it's probably just barely more likely that it passes at this rate.

My ballot disappeared for a while, and much to my disgust I was getting mentally ready to go down to elections to get a replacement to make sure my NO vote counted. As Fortuna happened, I was changing into my dance shoes on Monday night at the tango milonga and I found the envelope slipped between the two shoeboxes in my dance tote. Very fitting.

Suspicions such as these are one reason that the local rightists have been calling on Multnomah County to follow the state law that requires the county to destroy all unused ballots promptly after 8:00 p.m. on election day, something the county persistently refuses to do despite the clear state mandate to do so.

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 113
At this date last year: 155
Total run in 2016: 155
In 2015: 271
In 2014: 401
In 2013: 257
In 2012: 129
In 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269