Purdy: Kaepernick will be back

SANTA CLARA -- Kap will be back. That is not a prediction. It is a certainty.

For those who believe that this week's benching of Colin Kaepernick means the end of the 49ers quarterback ... apparently, you have not been studying how life in the NFL works. Quarterbacks are the lightsabers in the Star Wars battle scenes. As long as the lightsaber is functioning, someone finds a use for it. Otherwise, the movie isn't nearly as exciting.

In professional football, if a quarterback has shown he can complete passes for touchdowns and win games, he will get second and third chances galore. Kaepernick has shown he can complete passes and win games. The problem is, he used to do both more often. Which is why he is suddenly the 49ers' second-string quarterback.

But for how long? The 49ers maintained radio silence Tuesday after word leaked out that Kaepernick would not start Sunday's game against Atlanta, with Blaine Gabbert installed as the No. 1 quarterback. Thus, we don't know if the team's official stance is that Kaepernick's demotion is just a temporary thing, allowing him to clear his head before resuming behind center ... or if head coach Jim Tomsula intends to make Gabbert the starter for the rest of this season.

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In a way, it doesn't matter. Kaepernick will be back. One way or the other, sooner or later. He will either replace Gabbert before the end of the season or will be starting for another team next season because some other franchise will take a chance on him.

Me? I would bet on the first possibility. Gabbert is likely to have many of the same problems Kaepernick did this season, playing behind an offensive line that includes a few guys the team seems to have found waiting in line at the DMV. There's little time to throw on drop-back passes -- and with no real rushing attack while Carlos Hyde is out with a hinky foot, there is no other option but to throw. It's a bad combination.

Also, unlike Kaepernick, Gabbert has had little success in the NFL. He has not won a game as a starting quarterback since September 2012 when he was with the Jacksonville Jaguars and defeated an Indianapolis Colts team that went on to the playoffs. That was probably Gabbert's biggest NFL victory. There aren't many other options. Gabbert won only five games during three injury-riddled seasons with the Jaguars before joining the 49ers last year.

Not a stellar resume, to say the least. There is no reason to believe Gabbert is the answer to the 49ers' offensive sludgefest. When things go badly for Gabbert, as they surely will, Kaepernick will get the call to return. Heck, it could happen as early as the second half of Sunday's game.

And if not, it could happen in the following game. Or the next. No matter what, Kaepernick seems bound to be gone in the offseason. He has a team-friendly contract. The 49ers could send him on his way and draft a rookie to install as the new hope. But the team should think hard about that.

Did I mention the lightsaber analogy? It's better to have one that you know can work, rather than build one from scratch. We have seen what Kaepernick can do when surrounded by proper talent. He was never one of the league's top 10 quarterbacks. But with a good roster around him, he was able to win a playoff game in Green Bay. How many NFL quarterbacks today can say the same?

In coming days, you will hear much blather about Kaepernick's psyche being destroyed. You will hear about teammates supposedly shunning him. Or about the 49ers benching him to make sure he doesn't get hurt, to avoid kicking in a contract clause that would guarantee millions. You will hear about this all being the biggest 49ers tumult ever. Discount most of it. In historic terms, no 49ers tumult will ever match the Joe Montana-Steve Young quarterbacking controversy of the 1980s. After one particularly crazy/heated episode in that period, I remember asking Young how he managed to handle it.

"All part of the big circus," Young said.

And he was right. The professionals learn to deal with this stuff. The mystery in this circus is: How has Kaepernick failed to handle things and regressed to a state where he has trouble with basic quarterbacking functions?

The offensive line can't be blamed for all of it, although the 49ers have not had a quarterback who could overcome roster flaws in that regard since Jeff Garcia.

Nor can you point the finger at the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh. Remember, Kaepernick's reversal of form actually began last season when Harbaugh -- or someone -- decided that Kaepernick needed to develop more traditional pocket-passing skills. The plan did not go well. Kaepernick is not a traditional pocket passer. When asked to be one, he seems to either overthink or underthink the task. I'm still not sure which.

And as far as his team leadership goes ... just by observation, yes, Kaepernick can be a little self-absorbed. But again, that puts him in a big NFL club. And he was just as self-absorbed on the way to the Super Bowl in the 2012 season as he is now.

Anyone who saw what Kaepernick did in 2012 and 2013 knows there's enough raw material to produce more than the freeway chemical spill we've seen from the 49ers quarterbacking position in recent weeks. Maybe the time off will clear the goo out of Kaepernick's brain and he comes back in the season's last month to perform better. Or maybe he does finish out the season as a No. 2, then leaves for a franchise that can buttress his talent. I just know his story is not over.