At the recent annual developer’s conference hosted by NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), he declared the advancement of technologies to enable self-driving vehicles a “solved problem.”

“We know exactly what to do – and we’ll be there in a few years,” Musk declared.

Now, in a country like the United States, driving is embedded deep in our culture. The thought of handing over the controls to a computer takes some getting used to.

Musk’s prediction is also pretty bold. Analysts don’t expect any meaningful traction for driverless cars for another five to 10 years.

So who’s right? The answer (and the profit opportunities) hinge upon overcoming three key roadblocks…

Like It or Not… the Future Is Autonomous

Let me first say, I’m a fervent believer in an autonomous future. And I’m not alone.

In addition to Elon Musk, countless auto executives believe that self-driving cars are going to be commonplace in the next decade, according to a new IBM survey.

That’s particularly telling, of course, because they can directly influence the speed at which we achieve that future reality. It’s their job. Literally.

But even if they move full speed ahead on developing autonomous driving technologies, there’s still a lot of ground to cover. And it won’t be easy.

Roadblock #1: Are You Ready to Trust a Robot? According to the U.S. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), more than 90% of car accidents are due to human error. And as many as 1.9 million crashes – including one in every three fatal crashes – could be avoided each year with the latest technologies.

But here’s the rub…

While driverless cars promise to improve safety, are we really ready to trust robots to take the wheel?

From a technology standpoint, the answer is clearly “not yet.”

Musk says consistent freeway speeds are easy. But “where it gets tricky is that open environment around 30 to 40 miles per hour.” That’s when potential hazards crop up – more traffic, stopping and starting, children playing, bikes, manhole covers, etc. All these hazards must be detected and avoided.

In those situations, Musk says, “It’s being able to recognize what you’re seeing and making the right decision.” And the technology just isn’t there yet.

The last part of Musk’s comment about making the “right” decision is also important to consider.

Are we humans ready to trust – and live with – a robot’s decision in difficult situations?

For instance, what happens when a car encounters an emergency, where it can’t avoid another car – or worse, a person?

At its core, this becomes an ethical decision.

Presumably, the robot will make it based on a set of pre-programmed values. But, again, are we prepared to truly accept the decisions?

This is a difficult question to answer. Nevertheless, it promises to influence how quickly we embrace a driverless future.

Adequate technology isn’t the only roadblock, though…

Roadblock #2: The Curse of Regulators. In reference to cars driving in traffic jams without assistance, Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and CEO of Renault-Nissan, said at this year’s Mobile World Congress, “That’s ready today. We just need the regulators to accept it.”

Indeed, the bureaucrats threaten to hold up progress.

Much like us, they’ll need to be convinced that driverless cars are reliable and safe. And undoubtedly, that will entail countless studies and road tests.

In other words, lots of waiting.

And then we’ll have to wait some more, as they take their merry old time – like the FAA is doing with the use of drones – to draft and approve regulations.

Granted, Musk, Ghosn, et al. will be lobbying hard to speed up the process. But there are no guarantees their efforts will be successful.

Roadblock #3: Dear, Luddites… Get Out the Way! The last obstacle to overcome before our driverless future takes hold is a practical one.

It’s going to take time to transition to driverless cars – even if all the Luddites embrace them en masse.

Frost & Sullivan predicts that a meaningful number of self-driving cars will hit the market by 2020. How many?

We’re only talking about 180,000 driverless cars being shipped that year, which is less than 1% of the total market.

Now, there are two ways of looking at this…

Either: It’s going to take many more shipments than that to replace the two billion or so conventional cars and trucks on the road today. Possibly up to 20 years.

Or: There’s loads of room for driverless car technology to run higher!

And that’s the bottom line here: I have no doubt that a driverless future is our ultimate destination. But we have a long road trip ahead of us before we arrive.

Comments (9)

The more technology, the more regulation, the more government control.
From a pure safety perspective, there is no way a progaming algoritham can take the place of a good driver when it comes to avoidance and making decisions that avoid serios injury in real time that involve an immediate impact and then a more sreious potential impact that could follow. Perhaps 70% of all drivers are not terribly observant and all of us have lapses from time to time, where this type of system would be helpful to mostly avoid damage. There are many situations I have been in that I can see this system actually making worse, because they cannot possibly take into account all the things a human ca see and react to, also I may choose to go off the road as opposed to tangle with a truck or not: I would hate to have to fight the car and the situation. Sometimes its a question if what you are going to hit not if, and that means you are making a ‘personal choice’ not a ‘greater good choice’ based on a statistical model; me I like personal choices.

In Britain all the many billions of £ GBP are going into high speed rail.. 200 mph trains… they should spend the money on high speed introduction of autonomous vehicles instead. One could summon a car like a taxi and it could travel up the motorway at 100 mph digitally chained to inrease the capicity of the road by a factor of perhaps 100, and drop you at your exact destination, instead of spending 60 minutes each end in a hire car!! Lets be clear here… self driving cars will reduce the need for so many lanes of a motorway, and will be the end of all accidents; women drivers; personal injury lawyers; crash repair centers; car insurance; even the need to own a car; just summon the make and model you wish to travel in and it will be cheaper than forking over $675.00 per month!!!

bring it on ELON ! Your the man like, just like Mr Tesla, Alexander Graham Bell, and all those great inventors; Leonardo Da Vinci!! wow now there was an inventor!!

Hey Gene, I think your post has merit but the core issue with it is what a ‘good’ driver is. We know that all humans are extremely slow at reacting to most things compared to a computer. We also know most humans are also not trained in avoidance and how to handle a dangerous situation, like the one that you described. So if the algorithm is good enough to id a problem and react it will be in every way better than a human. Even if the algorithm was consistent and just mimicked an average driver it would be better, we’re unpredictable. I believe the stats are nearly all accidents are due to human error so removing the people can only be a good thing. But I too feel a little odd about giving up control.

THATS EXACTLY RIGHT.
We all have been in a “near accident situation”, or a “could have been much worse ” type of a collision where you know that your quick thinking saved the day for you.
However, the flip side to this is one to consider carefully. Say for instance, that your quick reaction that saved your life may have been the cause for death or injury for the occupants of the other vehicles involved in the situation. From their perspective your decision caused them harm. In situations like this, It would be interesting to see which algorithm is effective?

The term “autonomous” should not be applied to machines. The word is a social science term not an engineering term. Driverless cars will never be “autonomous” as the term is defined. Look it up. You better hope cars, or any machine for that matter, never become autonomous.

I often go to locations by knowing where they are, knowing the roads. I couldn’t tell you the address – I don’t know it. Will the cars be able to look for something by a verbal description? I live on a farm on a dirt road two miles to the paved state road, and I use my truck on – and off – farm roads. some of the things I do, self-driving could be very useful – like “move up about a yard.” How do I tell my truck what to do? will it be harder than doing it myself? On a completely different point, has any consideration been given to the effect these vehicles will have on obsessive back seat drivers? I can foresee serious psychological consequences.

Too often I think what the fuzz is all about. People predict that machinery will safe lives, but will they really? What’s the whole point of self-driven automobiles? Apart from destroying the fun for us whom love traveling around the country, self-driven automobiles will just make us lazier people. Why not focus on electric automobiles. Everyone is fighting to get the future here and everyone wants to make self-driven automobiles, to benefit who? The companies themselves? Machinery can make as many mistakes as human beings do. They can cause accidents as much as human beings do and they can crash, errors aren’t only made by human beings, what about brake failure, its a simple mechanical error, who says that self-driven automobiles will make a difference. Let’s wait for 2016 and we will see what a killer concept is. Tesla motors is too concerned about making a profit, instead work on something everyone will benefit from. I belief that 2016 will be the year customers will receive quality over quantity from a company that is not only concerned about making profits and high demands, but with a concept every individual will benefit from, and no, its not a self-driven automobile, instead, its the self-driven ability to make a difference in everyone’s lives and not just the minority. It is way better than a self-driven automobile, twice as safe, and will give you more than what you as a customer will ever expect an automobile such as the new Anonymous 2016 model.

Donald Trump ran a campaign on hyperbole and vagueness. Now as he prepares to take office, we take a closer look at his contradictory statements on science to make sense of the future of our favored industries.

It’s easy to dismiss celebrities and politicians as having hidden agendas. On the other hand, scientists that uncover cold, hard facts, deserve our respect for their endeavors. But respect is not worship.