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saintory writes "Apparently the Japanese console consumers are sinking their teeth into the modest Wii and are not as interested in the power-packed PS3. In fact, the Wii is outselling Sony's new console by a factor of almost 2:1. The number of PS3s sold into the Japanese market (466,716) falls well short of the million Sony had planned for the end of 2006. 989,118 Wii consoles have been sold in Japan in the same time span. From the article: 'Both Sony and Nintendo are projecting selling 6 million consoles by the end of March. Sony expects to start shipping the PS3 to Europe sometime that month as well. Straggling far behind Sony and Nintendo in the Enterbrain survey was Microsoft's Xbox 360, which had sold 290,467 since its Japan debut in December 2005. Selling machines in large numbers is crucial in the gaming business because it encourages software companies to make more games to play on the machines, which in turn boosts console sales.'"

There's no chance that one of these three companies will fail in the hardware market this round, in the way that Sega did a few rounds ago.

But, I think there'll be a shift in the leadership, for those people who want to "rank" the leaders in the console market. The ingredients for this ranking draw on units sold, profit, and critical success, but isn't directly tied to any one of them.

My prediction for current generation:1. Nintendo2. Microsoft3. Sony

For argument's sake, I'm going to claim that last generation was:1. Sony2. Microsoft3. NintendoI know, I know, Microsoft lost money on every sale, while Nintendo made a healthy profit. Nintendo, though, had trouble finding and capitalizing on breakout games, and their console had difficulty penetrating the adult market.

Now, next round, what do you think the odds are that one of these three companies will fail, or that a newcomer will push one of them out of the top three? Is the next Nokia going to "N Gage" gamers and knock off Sony? Will Nintendo's "It's the gameplay, stupid" philosophy wear out? Will Microsoft decide to stop hemorraging cash, or *gasp* manage to make a profit? Turn in 2009 to find out!

But 989,118 : 466,716 is UNDER the 2:1 ratio for small values of 2. The 2 could be 1.5, it could be 1.7, whatever. And then let's look at the one. Maybe they rounded the 1 down from its true value of 1.3. I'm just saying, you're taking too rigid of a definition of 1 and 2.

Because Sony has not made as many PS3s as Nintendo has made Wiis. Rather simple isn't it?

Well, that is the simplest answer and it is certainly a major factor.

Other peopel have pointed out (and after research I now have to agree) that the PS3 isn't selling in the USA (if any one wants ot buy a PS3, Circuit City has 60gig versions in stock).

Anecdotally, I was at Best Buy yesterday and they were still out of Wii (got a shipment that day but sold out very quickly) but had 12 PS3.

I can't claim anything definitive from that anecdotal evidence, but I'm do think it's quite plausible that the high price of the PS3 and it being functionally similar to the Xbox360 which has been out for a year has limited demand for the console such that they already have sufficient production. Or maybe the ones that weren't willing to wait in lines or track deliveries to every store in the region have given up on getting a PS3 for now and simply haven't noticed that the stores have them stocked. That hasn't happened with the Wii, obviously, as people are still scarfing up the consoles as fast as they arrive.

People are very quick to predict the doom and gloom of sony. What they all fail to recognize is that sony (and anybody else that had a clue on how the trends are moving) knew that this is going to happen. For months. The only thing they would not be able to anticipate is the negative public backlash from the hype machine that tried to imitate from the success of the 360 last year. This is a planned risk, as they are essentially taking on two fronts. One front is the video area, with Nintendo coming out guns blazing, and on top of that, the Microsoft juggernaut attempting to brute force their way through the market.

The bigger front that I see, is the movie industry. How long have DVDs been out? something like less than 10 years? How long did it take for them to make VHS obsolete? While it's completely understandable that Blu-ray Discs are probably not going to dominate DVDs at the rate that DVD did VHS, higher definition picture quality WILL win it over. The big question is: will Blu-ray Disc be the new DVDs of the future? Or will HDDVD? Or some other format?

This is the wild frontier that sony has been eyeing. They want their format to win, and is using the PS3 as their foothold. The PS3 is nothing more than collateral damage. Ever wonder why sony isn't making as big a push to produce games out for the ps3 as much as MS or NIN (aside from the fact that nobody really knows how to maximize the ps3 as of yet)? Their goal is to have as many bluray disk players in as many homes as possible(and for $599 for early adapters, that's pretty damn cheap). Once they get a decent foothold, and especially when prices begin to drop to decent levels, say $299? is when we're going to see frightningly high levels of market dominance by sony.

...but the 7-11's in Japan don't sell Slurpees. I mean, one could hardly call a 7-11 "7-11," if they ain't got no Slurpees!

Actually, a little wikipedia reading reveals that they tried to sell Slurpee when they first opened, but the populous was not interested in the frozen delight. Opting instead for the irresistible ice cream in a bag.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7-Eleven#Japan [wikipedia.org]

Sorry, I know I'm way off topic, but I did get a big kick out of the picture of 7-11 selling the PS3.

See this is where you are wrong. I'm living in Tokyo right now, and I go about every other day to Akihabara to try to get a Wii. For the last week the PS3's have been stacked up behind the counter, and when I say stacked I mean 4 wide square 10 high with at least 4 piles everyday. Looking at Yodobashi-Akiba (the largest electronics store in Japan) they have had the sign saying that PS3's are in stock for the last 1 and a half weeks as well as every other electronics store in Japan, but when you look above that sign it says the Wii is sold out. I have never seen that sign change. I wish it would because I want a Wii.

I'm not convinced this is actually going to be true. Yes, you need higher-resolution art assets for the PS3 and 360, but I imagine that most developers use them anyway for potential PC ports. On the Wii side, you've got to develop and playtest for a very different controller mechanism, which has got to take some significant time and resources.

Good games are going to be expensive to make, no matter what. I'd be curious to know what Zelda cost to develop versus, say, Oblivion.

I didn't find EU sales figures for consoles over the years, but I highly doubt a restricted market (Europe notoriously don't get many games), low birth rate (fewer younger folks which demographically tend to buy or drive the buy of via parents the bulk of games), and slower economic growth in this segment trumps the NAFTA/CAFTA market or the US alone. The EU may have the population to claim themselves as the market, but that hardly matters if your population doesn't buy.

I guess you could fudge the numbers by looking at revenue a fussing with the euro vs dollar but that wouldn't be salewise, would it.

However to those saying Sony is going to die, I just want to know... why did Nintendo not die last round when they were "arguably" #3, when Sony will "arguably" be #3 this round?

Two reasons why Nintendo didn't die last round... the first is that they were selling GameCubes at a profit. They were making money with every console being sold, and despite their poor sales and relatively small penetration in the last generation of consoles, they were still operating in the black.

The second reason is that the GameBoy series remains the dominant handheld, and will probably remain so for a long time. They've got the penetration, the feature set, and most importantly the price range to maintain their dominance in that market.

By contrast... the PSP is a great platform. It's got great graphics, the sound is pretty good, it's got tons of extra features. It's also really expensive. Like three times the cost of a GBA, and easily twice the cost of a DS. Because of this, it's really not doing as well in sales as the GameBoy line is, and Sony probably isn't making enough money off it to keep their consoles afloat. Which brings to bear the other thing... Sony is selling the PS3 at a loss. They're selling 'em for $650, and they cost about $1100 to make. Sony was banking on selling enough of them that they could make the money back selling dev kits to allow other vendors to make games for the console. But if they don't reach critical mass, developpers aren't going to spend their time/energy making games that won't sell enough to make a profit. You might actually see a world where games are developped for the Wii, and then ported to the PS3, instead of the past, where titles were being developped for the PS2 and being ported to the XBoX and GameCube.

Now, I doubt Sony will just sink. Sony Online Entertainment is the only wholly independant subsidiary that bears the "Sony" name, and they're still making lots of money off their laptops, stereos, tv's, and music. But it's quite possible that the console/handheld division of the company will be pissing money away this time around.

Just for all those people saying that there are no PS3s, and lots of Wiis, and that's why they're selling so well, let me put in my anecdotal evidence.

I live in a town of about 500,000 people, and work in Nagoya, which I belive is the 4th largest city in Japan (maybe 5th).

I can go into any store on any day and pick up a PS3. That includes both 20 and 60 GB models. I can go to my local game store, the mall, electronics Depot, even my Video Rental service is selling PS3s and have a bunch in stock.

Wiis? Good luck. Wiis sell out in about 5 minutes whenever there's a shipment. I haven't seen one on the store shelf EVER. DS Lites (and even DSs) are pretty much the same story. If you're not incredibly lucky, or incredibly determined, there's no way to pick up any Nintendo consoles. And that's with shipments coming once every week.

Even people I know who were gung-ho about the PS3 have wavered, and are buying Wiis instead. When I tell them that there are PS3s available, they just kind of shrug and say "Yeah... Maybe next year."

Anyways, he's now using a $2,600 Panasonic projector and a PS3. It looks enough better than his old setup that, yes, it is actually kind of painful to watch DVDs now (similar to how you probably feel when you end up watching a VHS tape on your setup). I wouldn't have believed it made as much difference as it does.

Yes Blueray/HDDVD disks are expensive now, but give it a few years and there will be multi-format discs available for rent and cheap for sale (and players will be $120). Downloaded content is indeed the future, but I don't think bandwidth is going to catch up with demand for a few more years at least. I think there's going to be a reasonable time period when the HD disc is king. And right now, they sure look good.

I notice you're from Alaska, and I can back that up (from Fairbanks). Here at the local Fred Meyers (Pacific Northwest Kroger-owned big box store), there have been the same 3 PS3s on the shelves for almost a week now (according to the sales clerks), they've been there every time I was there. I haven't even seen a Wii since I bought one there at launch. Hell, SIXAXIS controllers are danging on the racks, while even the Wii POINT GIFT CARDS are flying off the rack! I haven't seen a Wiimote, VCC, or Nunchuck since launch, and the clerks tell me they last a few hours at most.

This is one of the smallest markets in the contry. Neilson rates it 203 out of something like 211, and usually demand is much higher than supply (due to slow shipping), especially in electronics. If I hear that there are PS3s sitting on shelves in Times Square, and there are PS3s sitting on shelves in Fairbanks, Alaska, I think it's not too much to assume that they're pretty much sitting on shelves in most markets, as well. Oh, Fairbanks is full of rich fuckers too, with way too much time on their hands, and can't have any outdoor life. Video games are big here. PS3s still can't sell.