A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 30, 2013

Hurricane Chatter Online on Possible Hurricane Threat Next Week to East Coast

Okay... decided to post on this because people online are going crazy and getting excited due to a few models that develop the Tropical Wave into a storm that moves north towards a Cold Front in a weakness in the Ridge towards the Carolina Coast and the rest of the Coast beyond that...........

Possible for CLIMO though any attempt at getting such a storm rolling this year has been batted down by one feature or another.

Here's the link... note that it intensifies over the North Coast of the Dominican Republic where many a weak storm fell apart so far this season ...but that was earlier this season.

What I find interesting is that the signature of this supposed storm bears a close resemblance to Fran from 1996. Earlier this year MANY times I pointed out that the record rainfall in North Carolina goes back to records from 1996 the year when Bertha and Fran hit an already water logged region.

September 8th from a model... far, far from a sure thing... just a model forecast.

Like the ghost of Fran

Fran is the bottom storm and the model signature for both rain and wind over the Carolinas into Virginia would be very similar.

NO.. I am not saying this is Fran #2 or Irene #2 as some of suggested. I am saying patterns exist.

For the Almanac aficionados... it does show hurricane problems in September and by the way..it also showed NONE in August. Well one way off shore, but no threats.

Note threat for the 7th and this model is for the 8th... could recurve or stay off the Outer Banks. .IF it forms.

September 20131st-3rd. Scattered showers may dampen holiday plans, then fair.4th-7th. Hurricane threat along the Atlantic seaboard; otherwise generally fair, very warm and humid.8th-11th. Thundery conditions.12th-15th. Showery rains spread to the north and east.16th-19th. Thunderstorms along Gulf Coast. Rain for Tennessee east, then fair.20th-23rd. Hot and oppressively humid.24th-27th. Fair, turning much cooler for Mississippi Valley east.28th-30th. Widespread showers for most of the Southeast.http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast/southeast-us/

Just find it interesting that the only threat for September is during the time period the Canadian and another model are screaming formation and landfall threat.

Neither the GFS or the EURO show this happening. IF either of these A Team models even suggest such a storm you will see Invests and discussion on TWC nonstop. Hey...got nothing else to talk about other than old clips from the 1935 Labor Day Storm.