Whenever Sen. Orrin Hatch speaks to Utah voters, he makes the same pitch for reelection: Experience matters in Washington.

Whenever Spencer Stokes is asked, he delivers the opposite message: Hatch’s decades in Washington are a major reason why he’s probably going to lose.

Stokes isn’t just an average political observer in Utah: He’s the chief of staff to the state’s junior senator, Mike Lee. And his blunt opinions on Hatch speak to the awkward dynamic within the GOP these days: Of party elders, who believe deeply in their institutional know-how, trying to court a tea party electorate that wants to clean house.

Hatch’s main argument for electability is that his nearly 36 years in Washington have put him in position to become chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, which would be a boon to Utah. But Stokes, who has known the 77-year-old Hatch for three decades, believes that experience is a nearly insurmountable liability with a Utah GOP electorate that’s turned hard against Washington and the Republican establishment.

“They see there are problems with the federal government and federal budget, and they are asking … why, if the federal budget is in trouble, do I want someone to go back who in their mind contributed to it?” Stokes said in an interview. He was referring to GOP voters who will caucus in mid-March to choose delegates for the April nominating convention.

“Although in any other circumstance and any other time, running on seniority and your power would be something that you would want to play up,” Stokes added, “in this particular economic time and situation in Washington, D.C., that’s actually working against you with delegates.”

Stokes stressed that he’s not opposing Hatch’s bid and that he has great affection for the senior senator. But he said he’s provided an “honest analysis” to “hundreds and hundreds” of Utah political types and voters only when they ask him about the race, even at church on Sunday. The only reason he told a reporter about his views, he said, was to kill false rumors that he was actively working to defeat Hatch in the primary.

“Orrin has done a lot of great things for the state of Utah over the years and is in my mind a statesman and has represented Utah very well,” Stokes said when asked if he thought Hatch should retire instead of run for reelection.

“But that doesn’t change the facts. I don’t think anybody wants to lose or see someone lose. … I don’t want to see Sen. Hatch hurt in that kind of way. … I would rather have seen him go out on top and be regarded as the statesman he’s been for the state of Utah.”

That an influential Lee aide and longtime Utah political operative is voicing skepticism about Hatch’s central campaign strategy is ruffling more than a few feathers in the halls of the Senate, where such intraparty disputes are rarely aired publicly.

“I’ve heard that, but I would hope he’s not doing that,” Hatch said in reaction to Stokes’s comments. “I’ve always been his friend. But be that as it may, we’re going to win.”

Dave Hansen, Hatch’s campaign manager, was less charitable, calling Stokes “a political gadfly” who is “not always correct but never in doubt.”

“I think Spencer Stokes ought to stick to his own job, which is chief of staff, and that should be enough to keep him busy,” Hansen said. “To be honest with you, does it make an impact? No. Is it a nuisance? Yeah.”

But Hatch acknowledges that selling his experience to voters is not always easy and remains a challenge for his campaign.

He mentioned the Olympia Snowe factor: If Hatch loses, the Maine moderate would be next in line to assume the top GOP spot on the Finance Committee, something Hatch and Hansen say is not lost on Utah voters.

“I think the world of her,” Hatch said, before adding, “There are people who are naturally concerned about that, and certainly conservatives are.”

Both Stokes and Hatch spokeswoman Antonia Ferrier said Tuesday that their bosses have a very collegial relationship, with the Hatch aide saying that her boss “always put Utahans first and looks forward to continuing to work in a strong, collaborative manner” with Lee and the Utah delegation.

But Stokes said a certain “professional jealousy” — not uncommon among senators representing the same state — exists between the two operations.

“You pat each other on the back and say, ‘Let’s do lunch,’ and then you go a full year and don’t do lunch,” he quipped.

Lee’s refusal to endorse Hatch’s bid — even though it’s customary for senators from the same party and state to support one another’s reelection efforts — has exacerbated the strain.

“I’m staying out of it,” Lee, 40, said. “And my chief of staff is staying out of it.”

The awkwardness is compounded by the long shared history between Hatch, Lee and Stokes, who was a top aide to Hatch’s unsuccessful 2000 presidential bid. Hatch remembers a young Lee when he served as a Senate page, and the senior senator pushed the selection of Lee’s father, Rex Lee, to become Ronald Reagan’s solicitor general in 1981. In 2010, Hatch said he helped Lee’s brother Thomas get a seat on the state Supreme Court.

But Lee draws his support from the same voters who helped him take down an 18-year Senate veteran, Bob Bennett, at the 2010 party convention. And backing Hatch now could undermine Lee’s apparent desire to become a national tea party leader.

Their divergent views are exemplified by their different approaches to the group FreedomWorks, which is working to defeat Hatch. Lee has helped the organization in the past with fundraising and made headlines last fall when he sparred with Senate staffers who tried to disrupt an unauthorized hearing with the group.

“I’m close to them,” Lee said of FreedomWorks.

But Hatch said he doesn’t have “any respect” for FreedomWorks, and he’s stated in the past that Dick Armey, the former congressman and chairman of the group, wouldn’t return his phone calls four times last year when Hatch wanted him to testify at a Senate hearing.

FreedomWorks’ entrance into the race is another “factor working against” Hatch, according to Stokes.

While Hatch boasts one of the more conservative records in the Senate and has increasingly voted in line with tea party activists, including voting earlier this month in favor of a resolution calling for term limits, his long history includes votes despised by some on the right, including one in favor of the bank bailout in 2008.

Efforts to unseat the nearly 36-year veteran will begin on March 15, when caucuses throughout the state will decide which delegates will represent them at their April nominating convention.

To avoid a primary runoff, Hatch will need the support of 61 percent of the 4,000 convention delegates. His two most formidable candidates appear to be former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist and state Rep. Chris Herrod.

Hansen, Hatch’s campaign manager, has worked to recruit thousands of potential delegates and caucus-goers.

But Stokes is skeptical, saying campaigns can’t “stack” caucuses with prospective supporters and that state delegates tend to be turned off by out-of-state cash.

“Those questions to some may be difficult pills to swallow,” Stokes said, “but, nevertheless, they are pills that have to be taken.”