The temporal development of the modulus of elasticity and its profile were studied in water-borne alkyd coatings during the drying process of the coating films. Values of the Young’s moduli of elasticity of free coating films were measured using tensile tests. Since the elastic modulus is related to cross-link density, the values of the moduli give information on the advancement of the drying process. A mathematical model was developed to predict the degree of effective cross-linking and the mechanical behaviour of the drying coating films with different thicknesses. This model is based on trends observed by confocal Raman microspectroscopy, which exhibit the profile of the consumption of double bonds and thus can be used to monitor the development of cross-link density as a function of depth from the film surface. The average values of the Young’s measured moduli were successfully described by the numerical model as a function of drying time.