Airbus expects more orders from Singapore Airlines, which took delivery of its first of 19 A380s this week and said the arrival of superjumbos means it expects to phase out its Boeing 747s within four to five years.
Some of Singapore Airlines' 747 aircraft will be converted to freighter planes for use by its air cargo business.

Singapore Airlines has an option for an additional six A380s. The plane has a list price of $300 million but airlines are usually given deep discounts.
"I think they want to get the airplane into operation now but I think it's inevitable that Singapore will have return orders," Leahy said.

Airbus expects to receive new orders for its A380 superjumbo by the middle of next year from Asian airlines such as Air India and Air China.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 6):It looks like Boeing will lead with their 787 and Airbus will lead in the superjumbo category.

Yes but how big will those leads be? My guess is the A380 will outsell the B748-I by at least 3:1 whereas the B787 will outsell the A350 by less than 2:1.

Anyway, I think that SIA ought to buy as few or as many A380's as they can fly with good profitability. If they can make good money out of the A380's they introduce in the next year or so, I would expect them to buy more. Why would they choose not to?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):We need to not look at just the near-term, as the A380 program would be reasonably expected to last until at least 2020-2030.

You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 3):B748 cannot offer the same level of space to passengers.

That will be a factor only in the near-term. Over time, the only thing that will matter to the airlines is profitability and not spaciousness and the only thing that will matter to passengers (as it does now), with the exception of very high-end passengers, is ticket price.

On another forum I frequent, one poster told of stories from friends of his working in the banking sector in City of London, where there's some fairly substantial loans being set up, rumoured to be for new A380 customers.

Even I acknowledge, this is a rumour worth taking with a pinch of salt, however, I think more A380 orders this year really isn't that far fetched.

Grupo Marsans have acknowledged their A380 order, was a marketing tool for them, history seems to be repeating itself. When the B747 came on the market, many smaller operators felt they couldn't compete properly, without having the aircraft in their fleet. Thus small airlines, such as SAS bought the aircraft without the need for it.http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/un...marsans-and-the-a380-its.html#more

SIA is saying competing airlines, will be reduced to has beens when the A380 starts competing with airlines without the A380. I really do see that happening, and expect a lot of the airlines currently sitting on the fence waiting to decide, will come down in favour of the A380.

My personal belif, is that most of these airlines will go for the A380 sooner or later:
Cathay
Air China
China Eastern
ANA
Japan Airlines
Air India
Jet Airways
South African
TAM
Air New Zealand
United Airlines
Northwest Airlines

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):That will be a factor only in the near-term. Over time, the only thing that will matter to the airlines is profitability and not spaciousness and the only thing that will matter to passengers (as it does now), with the exception of very high-end passengers, is ticket price.

I believe you have hit the nail on the head. This is exactly why SQ purchased this beast. It gives them the opportunity to offer a very very high end product and a very good low end one. The spaciousness of the 380 gave it the opportunity to cover everything with an excellent running cost. Profitable airlines like SQ continue to be so, by being leaders in as many fields as possible. Wish US Airways would have thought this way instead of the 20 year old me too Business Class Seat!!!

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

Quoting Col (Reply 10):Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):
You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

I think deliveries for the A380 could last upwards of two decades. She's really going to be the only game in town in her size-range, so top-off and replacement orders will likely trickle in even in the latter part of the next decade or two, just as they now do for the 767 and the 747.

Over at fligthglobal they have an article about the US Army/Navy is looking into the F version as a replacement for old equipment. Even as a replacement for Airforce 1, but I guess that will never happen. I was wondering why that topic has not transferred over here so far.

On the long run, I can well imagine that the 380F will have a strong comeback for civilian as well as military purpose. Of course, many of the 747s will be converted, but with the rise of fuel price, once the 380 lines are running, I am sure it will be busy for many years.

I exchanged political frustration with sexual boredom. better spoil a girl than the world

Quoting Macc (Reply 13):Over at fligthglobal they have an article about the US Army/Navy is looking into the F version as a replacement for old equipment. Even as a replacement for Airforce 1, but I guess that will never happen. I was wondering why that topic has not transferred over here so far.

Because it is being discussed in the Military Aviation forum, which is the proper forum for it.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):She's really going to be the only game in town in her size-range, so top-off and replacement orders will likely trickle in even in the latter part of the next decade or two, just as they now do for the 767 and the 747.

Yes, the only game in town in her size-range will be a very important point within 10 years. There is going to be industry consolidation globally that will result in a general "up gauging" of aircraft size.

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 11):No, Airbus and Boeing working on planes that have better CASM.

Have you seen the SQ video's on their 380's? Its all about making money, SQ know all about that. The 380 offers SQ the chance to make more from its products. The smaller twins don't have that flexibility, even with lower CASM.

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 3):Over the coming years reality will kick in... Many more VLA will be needed and Airbus has that market to itself. The B748 cannot offer the same level of space to passengers.

Airbus wasn't gambling when it decided to build the A380.

Airbus either got lucky or thought this through, they said they worked closely with a few carriers when developing the A380, which was probably virgin, qantas, singapore, and emirates. They probably saw that these carriers have huge premium seats and other products, so the A380 works well for them. But when you get down to virgin and BA the A380 gives them space for their premium product, but the A380 might still be too big for them on some routes. For BA and Virgin the 748 is good for routes that need more space but not the size of the A380. But airlines like Singapore and Emirates make so much money (its insane how they can fill a plane) so the 748 isn't needed for them. But airlines will begin realizing that the A380 is great for their premium products on routes like JFK-LHR, but eventually airlines like virgin and BA will see that they need a smaller plane like the 748 to stay efficient and make money. But it definately looks like Airbus got something right, it could turn out that there will be a switch in thinking of the A380 and 748, we could see more A380s in an airline and the 748 as the niche plane.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 6):How times can change. SQ really seem pleased with their A380 with comments like ''the new queen of the skies''.

They seem pleased with what were delivered, but we still have to see what kind of comments SQ will give once the A380 has flown for about a year for them and there's more information available on things such as dispatch reliability at EIS, operating costs in a real world environment (CASM vs RASM), etc.

And this is the final trial for the A380: prove itself in real life service. If it passes these trials, it will boost confidence over the A380 and give it and Airbus more credibility and a better chance of eventually making an ROI on the aircraft. It may take a lot of time for them to get an ROI, but if they do, then it's not because of sales tactics, but because the A380 has proven itself to be an outstanding aircraft and everything it was promissed.

Consider this: SQ turns over its fleet much more quickly than most other airlines; this allows them to fly the latest equipment, to sell the older airplanes at good prices, and decreases heavy maintenance expenses. SQ flies most of its airplanes for a period of about 12 to 15 years.

It is very likely that the A380 will be in production for the next 20 to 25 years and Boeing is not planning an airplane is the A388 (or potential A389) size category.....thus in about 10 years time, SQ will likely place orders for new A380s (maybe the A380 Enhanced) to replace the A380s that are now being delivered. Thus, its very likely that SQ will order more A380s in the future: possibly to expand its A380 fleet but definitely to replace early delivery A380s with newer aircraft. SQ lots of 747s over the years...with newer airplanes replacing older ones, so it would not be the first time SQ would replace aircraft with new build versions of the same type.

I'll admit the last five are a bit suspect, but I'll endeavour to make my case for these 5 operators:

When Grupo Marsans with Aerolineas Argentinas is opting for the A380, this will surely make TAM more interested in the A380. The fact that Varig is a shadow of its former self, and there's a huge growth in people travelling to Brazil, makes TAM a very likely candidate. Constrained airports, in GIG and especially GRU also makes the case more likely.

Air New Zealand is a current operator of the B747-400, and have a rather large competitor in Qantas which is opting for the A380. More airlines are highly likely to employ the A380 on routes to NZ with Emirates and Singapore as prime contenders. As noted earlier by me, Grupo Marsans is using the A380 as a marketing tool. I can easily see airlines managing to lure the regular Joe consumer onto the A380, with the "fly the biggest passenger aircraft in the world" slogans, that are bound to appear as the A380 goes into service. Already with people paying in the region of $100,000 to get on the first SIA A380 flight, there's a lot of interest in the aircraft, from the general public.

South African is a current operator of the B744, although they seem to be on the move out of the fleet in favour of A346s. SAA had quite a upturn in fortunes, up until the monetary speculation deal fell through, and they lost a lot of money. Travel to South Africa is rising fast every year, and SAA is another potential candidate for the A380, particularly since most of the flights to Europe only have a very short time period to leave for Europe, in order for times to be feasible for the passengers, this limits slot availability at some airports, and a larger aircraft could be a solution, if SAA want to add flights, but without the slots to do it. LHR is a major market for SAA, building the case for A380s at SAA further.

The biggest ifs are the US airlines. UAL is in my view the most likely candidate for the A380. They operate a large B744 fleet, and has a "4 class" layout with First, Business, Ecomomy+ and Economy. In order to stay competitive more money has to be spent on the premium products, no other aircraft has the space to do this, other than the A380. SIA will make a lot of money on their new Suites and Business class products, and UAL in particular could be the most likely US candidate to profit from having more space to develop their premium cabins further.

NWA is more uncertain, however rumours are floating around that NWA is looking at the aircraft. NWA operates the first built B744s, delivered from 1989 and onwards, meaning some of the aircraft are nearing 20 years. Even though NWA has a tendency to stick with their old aircraft, I see no reason this should be the case with the B744s, when the DC-10s and B742s are all gone in favour of A330s and the upcoming B787s.

Whether I'm right or not remains to be seen, I do note that the general feeling towards the A380 on this forum, seems to have mellowed slightly after the delivery to SIA. The general mood seems to be in favour of the A380, somewhat reluctantly by some here, but it's refreshing to see that it's dawned on some of the A380 bashers, that the aircraft is here to stay, a bit late off the blocks, but it's turning out to be a very good aircraft, delivering on its promised performance figures with high praise from SIA.

As has been said - this plane needs to be in service for a period of time to do a couple of things before people start leaping and making claims. These are the same things for any new aircraft.

1. Dispatch reliability. If there are problems which crop up and it needs constant maintenance to keep in service then orders will be slow.
2. Performance. To make the aircraft successful the costs to keep the plane flying have to be in line and the returns justify it. If A380's are constantly flying half full when the novelty wears off then that will effect things. No one has a crystal ball until we actually see it happening.
3. Customer response. If people see the value in the A380 and pay the premium to use the seats that convert to beds and other high end amentities it will be a success. If they don't these sections will shrink and it will be replaced by more seats.

The initial orders have been slow. Not unusual for a new aircraft (excepting the huge numbers for the 787). The 747 launched with a lot more airlines involved and having ordered but it was very much an unknown quantity for a while. I know this is shocking for here but everyone is just going to have to be patient for a while to see the results. Hopefully the optimists will be right and the naysayers wrong. As much of the success of the plane is going to be be a result of the economy and nothing to do with the quality of the machine.

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):When Grupo Marsans with Aerolineas Argentinas is opting for the A380, this will surely make TAM more interested in the A380. The fact that Varig is a shadow of its former self, and there's a huge growth in people travelling to Brazil, makes TAM a very likely candidate. Constrained airports, in GIG and especially GRU also makes the case more likely.

Why would JJ even need an aircraft the size of the A380, when they already have something big yet smaller than the A380 on order with the 77W? In the case of Grupo Marsans, one could argue that since A7 and AR operate 747s, they may have a need for a new VLA. Then again, I believe the Marsans order doesn't make any sense because AR would most likely just operate the A380 on their EZE-MAD route and who knows what markets would justify the A380 for A7. JJ never even operated a VLA at all and with their order for the 77W, they seem to indicate that they don't want a 525 seater, when all they need is just a 350 seater for their trunk routes.

25 ExFATboy
: True, but it was a different world back then - US carriers were regulated, and most of the rest of the world was not only regulated, but had a goverm

26 Qantas787
: I can't get over the told you so attitude on here about some sales of the 380. Did any of you really expect them not to sell some of them? Of course t

27 Pnwtraveler
: Haha. Half of the excess verbage on this site would disappear if people didn't sit on the edge of their seats and over analize everything. It would ac

28 Astuteman
: Airbus made 2 mistakes. One was screwing up the wiring on the A380 One was completely underestimating the 787. There's no reason why the correct exec