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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Adding Nucor (NUE) & Selling Agriculture Strength

I made a few moves today. Towards the close I sold calls against some agricultural positions. Shorter term (next couple of trading sessions) I expect the agricultural stocks to come in a bit. I have been bullish on Mosaic for a 170% gain since October 3rd and have liked Terra (TRA) & Terra Nitrogen LP (TNH) for almost a year.

The infrastructure boom cannot be ignored. I am currently holding McDermott (MDR) and Vale (RIO). Today I added Nucor Steel (NUE) to the portfolio. I also considered US Steel (X), but felt that Nucor is better managed (higher operating margins and return on equity) and is also less expensive based on forward earnings estimates. US Steel is also a bit more volatile with a Beta over 2.50. Nucor reports earnings before the open tomorrow.

I wouldn't recommend having a portfolio just of commodity stocks. You need to be diversified. If you held a portfolio composed only of telcom and internet stocks in 1999-2000, you would not be a happy camper in 2001. Same applies to commodity stocks in 2008.

I am not a real big fan of Tech as an industry. I like to look at businesses that are easy to analyze. The first question I ask is "how does a company make money?" I have a tough time answering that question for tech companies. Technology is constantly changing and I find it more difficult to determine where a company stands in the cycle.

As far as hedges, you can sell covered calls on your portfolio. You can also take a look at the short ETFs like (DOG). I would call your broker or advisor for advice.

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