Speaking at the 10th “Vietnam Economic Scenario 2017: Business and Investment in a Changing World” conference held by Vietnam Economic Times and the Central Economic Commission on March 9 in Ho Chi Minh City, Mr. Dinh La Thang, Politburo member and Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee, stressed that Vietnam’s economy has many opportunities to maintain high growth due to positive changes in State policies on economic restructuring, renovating the growth model, and improving the business environment.

At the gathering, many experts and economists exchanged views on economic scenarios for the country.

According to Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics, unpredictable variables in the global economy have a significant effect on Vietnam’s business and investment environment. He said that global trade may see some disorder this year as messages from US President Donald Trump on trade policies remain mixed and the prospect of a “hard Brexit” is also increasingly evident, with the EU economy exhibiting decline and risks last year. At the same time, Japan has also seen slow economic movement for a decade.

However, experts say that advantages for Vietnam’s economy in 2017 will come from free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic growth being enhanced by the government’s commitments to institutional reforms and improvements in the investment environment to facilitate the business community. Exports, real estate and the securities markets are all expected to enjoy stable growth.

“In the next three years, Vietnam’s economy will continue to grow at over 6 per cent,” said economic expert Nguyen Tri Hieu. “This is a sound growth rate compared to other countries in the region, but is not expected to reach 6.7-6.8 per cent.” This is because Vietnam will face a range of global issues in the years ahead, but it can nonetheless be cautiously optimistic about growth exceeding 6 per cent with inflation kept under the set target.

According to Mr. Vo Tri Thanh, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), there are two scenarios for Vietnam’s economy in 2017. In the first, the national economy continues to maintain sustainable growth, with the effectiveness of domestic investment continuing to improve. Economic growth would stay at 6.44 per cent and inflation 5 per cent.

The second scenario includes assumptions made in the first, with the economy also utilizing opportunities from economic development through global integration. An effective economic structure will be enhanced, with growth forecast at 6.72 per cent and inflation 6 per cent.

Regardless, the recovery in the global economy remains weak and unequal. Global trade has been growing slowly in recent years, at a rate even less than global economic growth. In such a global context, Vietnam will have to prepare its own scenarios, where its global trade relationship becomes harder and macro-economic policies more complex, Mr. Thanh added.