So, I just read Steve Haskin’s blog about the concerns surrounding American Pharoah’s possible participation in the Travers. With regard to Saratoga’s legacy as ‘graveyard of favorites’, I decided to analyze some data I have on race results. My database was compiled from data pulled from the Racing Post website, and covers racing from April 2007 through mid-July 2015, for North American thoroughbred tracks. My dataset contains the results of about 8,000 races where there was an identifiable favorite and the field size was at least 5.

I found 8,150 post time favorites in this dataset, and the overall percentage of winning favorites was 35.77%. This is the percentage of race favorites who actually finished first. With entries and co-favorites, the actual # of winners was 7,996.

The interesting data (to me, at least): Saratoga’s winning favorites’ percentage was higher than the overall, at 36.66%. This means that favorites won more often at Saratoga than at all other NA tracks combined. This was for over 400 races in my dataset.

The second interesting thing was focusing on the major synthetic tracks: Keeneland (up until the Fall of last year, it was Polytrack), Arlington and Woodbine. {I know there are other synthetic tracks in NA, like PID-GG-TP, but they do not host major race meets, IMO.}. The favorites’ winning percentage at the three major synthetic tracks was 31.69%. This covered over 1,400 races.

So, according to my analysis, Saratoga should no longer be labeled the graveyard of favorites … Statistically, their win pct was not significantly different than other (non-synthetic) tracks around the country.

Hi Aug,You're taking Saratoga's nickname too literally. It has nothing to do with the percentage of favorites that have won at the meet, but the improbable Champions that have been beaten at very low odds in prestigious Graded Stakes races. Saratoga got that name in 1919, when the great Man O' War was defeated by Upset, then Gallant Man being beaten by Jim Dandy and the icing on the cake, when Secretariat lost to Onion to name the top 3:>) Such improbable upsets is why the name has stuck all these years and will never be forgotten. Hopefully it won't rear it's ugly head IF AP decides to take the challenge and run in the Travers. We'll find out Bafferts decision tomorrow after AP breezes at Del Mar. Here's a little video Harvey Pack put together years ago about the "Graveyard of Favorites". TJhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qQdcxQ6awA

Yes, I know the back story ... but that's ancient history, as they say. Recent data shows Saratoga is not that much different than any other track.I found 94 Grade 1 Stakes in my dataset where the favorite was 1-2 or less, of which 14 were at Saratoga. Of the 14 SAR G1 heavy favs, 9 won, for a W% of 64.3%.Of the 80 G1s with heavy favs not at SAR, 54 won, for a W% of 67.5%.

I guess it falls under the rubric of 'an urban myth', given the Man O'War and Secretariat history, and how improbable their losses were.One of the more notable ones in recent history was Princess of Sylmar losing the Delaware Handicap last year at 1-5.Of course, we should never forget these extreme results, but I believe my more recent history shows that heavy favorites in G1s tend to run to their odds, regardless of the racing surface or location.

Here's the complete list, in case anyone is interested. It is probably not complete, given that I pulled down the data by hand from a UK site and it (or me) may be inaccurate:

I believe the correct moniker for Saratoga is "Graveyard of Champions" and not "Graveyard of Favorites". Your data is, as Sgt. Schultz would say "very interesting" but what it does not account for is the dynamics of the races involved, meaning it does not consider the trip and if that bad start, poor position or track surface might have influenced the loss.

Hi Aug,As I said before it has nothing to do with the number of favorites that win races at Saratoga and all the facts that you find will never change Saratoga's past history. It's simply about the number of champions that were upset at Saratoga. Whether the "Graveyard of Favorites" nickname is a myth or not, it is part of the allure of the oldest racecourse in America and those improbable defeats will stay forever etched in the minds of the fans, horsemen/women and in the Spa's history books. It's also been called "The August Place to Be", even though NYRA keeps extending this great meet from the end of July into the beginning of September. It's still the best racing in America and "The August Place to Be" for me is "The Graveyard of Favorites":>) Yesterday's headline at Saratoga...."Embellish The Lace Upsets Alabama". TJhttp://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ts-alabama

I believe the correct moniker for Saratoga is "Graveyard of Champions" and not "Graveyard of Favorites". Your data is, as Sgt. Schultz would say "very interesting" but what it does not account for is the dynamics of the races involved, meaning it does not consider the trip and if that bad start, poor position or track surface might have influenced the loss.

DDT

Hi DDT,Yes it was....but you can thank Harvey Pack for changing it:>) Look at the video I posted above. Bill Heller's book was named "Graveyard of Champions". TJ

Well, I like reading your data, it makes me feel less superstitious about the Travers. I was worried before the Haskell, hearing all of the hype about TC winners losing their first time out after the Belmont... and AP proved them wrong. I am hoping beyond hope that the same happens on Saturday... looking at some workout pics today, he looks great, IMO... very fit, ears pricked and ready. Fingers, toes and limbs crossed!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forumYou cannot reply to topics in this forumYou cannot edit your posts in this forumYou cannot delete your posts in this forumYou cannot post attachments in this forum