Matt Gurney: Why the deal to curtail Iran's nuclear program could actually turn out be a step toward war

This past weekend’s announcement of an interim deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program is being heralded around the world as a victory for diplomacy and a step toward peace. Israel, however, considers it very bad news indeed. And it is planning accordingly.

Last week, several days before the deal was announced, a senior Israeli government official met with the National Post at a downtown Toronto location. In a wide-ranging interview, the official returned repeatedly to his concern — fear would not be too strong a word — that the world was about to make a major mistake in Geneva. To his view, that feared mistake has now come to pass: The world, led by the United States., has made life easier for Iran’s theocratic leaders without getting much of anything in return.

It will be easier to reduce [sanctions] more than to put them back up

The deal, which is slated to last six months (to buy time for further negotiations), is essentially a pause. Iran will not enrich uranium past the level sufficient to power electrical reactors, but not enough to build a nuclear bomb. Further, Iran will convert previously highly enriched uranium to a non-military state, open its facilities to some inspections and not bring any further nuclear development technology or facilities online. In exchange for this, the U.S. will immediately provide Tehran with access to up to $7-billion that had been frozen by international sanctions.

But Iran keeps its centrifuges. It keeps its dispersed development facilities. It keeps its technical know-how. In short, it is only really sacrificing whatever enriched uranium it might convert to a non-military state, while keeping the ability to enrich more uranium at effectively a moment’s notice.

And it remains one of the leading sponsors of terror around the world. Iranian fingerprints can be found in virtually every corner of the globe, the official told the Post. In Syria and south Lebanon, where Iran provides weaponry, money and logistical support to Hezbollah and Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad. In Afghanistan and Iraq, where Iran works to keep both countries unstable and weak. In Africa, where Islamic terror groups are a growing threat. And right here in the Americas, where Iran would like nothing more than to cause trouble should any future conflict make opening a second front against America a worthwhile option.

This may sound alarmist. But surely Israel, a tiny nation surrounded by enemies and what the official aptly described as “chaos, and chronic instability” can be forgiven some degree of alarmism. If the Western optimists who laud the deal with Iran are right, and if this proves a decisive breakthrough toward a more peaceful future, Israel will benefit as much, if not more, than any nation. But if the optimists are wrong, and if Iran has simply traded a brief delay in its ambitions in exchange for a desperately needed injection of hard currency into its sanctions-wracked economy, the rest of the world can console itself that a nuclear-armed Iran can’t destroy them with a single shot.

Israel? No such luck.

This is why Israel, despite the chaos and bloodshed along its borders, fears Iran more than the threats much closer to home. The official stressed that, for the time being, Israel is in a good place: Egypt’s new military ruler is committed to the peace treaty, strongly opposes the Muslim Brotherhood and has cracked down on the smuggling tunnels in the Gaza Strip. Syria is descending into chaos, and is deemed likely to balkanize into disparate warring groups, including some that will be led by Al-Qaeda or its affiliates, but so far all of the combatants are avoiding provoking Israel (except for a few artillery shells, the official pointed out, and those were met with a sufficiently overwhelming Israeli response that the Syrian factions seem to have gotten the message). There are reasons to fear developments in Turkey and Libya, and there are certainly rogue elements at work in Jordan and Lebanon, but overall, the official said, all the nations near to Israel are either sufficiently deterred by the Jewish state’s military might or too busy killing fellow Muslims to pose any threat to his homeland.

But Iran’s nuclear program can change that, even without building a bomb. If Iran is close to a bomb, and has time to perfect its missile technology, it will achieve a kind of deterrence of its own. Not as effective as Israel’s (presumed but all but certain) extant nuclear-strike force, but still very real. It will deter the Western world while partially countering Israel’s own deterrence. It will, in short, make the Middle East an even more dangerous, unstable place.

That is why Israel worries about the agreement reached this weekend. “It’s not about five billion dollars, or seven billion, or 20,” the official said. “It’s about reversing the dynamic. For years, the pressure has been on Tehran. They have been feeling it. The sanctions were working. Now we’ve reduced them. It will be easier to reduce them more than to put them back up.”

Indeed. And that’s why Israel’s warnings that it reserves the right to act in its own self-interest cannot be considered mere bluster. The Israelis feel more concerned and vulnerable today than they did last week — and they were plenty worried then. The agreement reached this weekend is being hailed as a step toward peace. It may prove rather the opposite.