Florida likely to get direct hit, forecasters say

Scientists predict 16 named storms, five at Category 3 or stronger, and a season almost as busy as last year's. A Florida hit is seen as likely.

By KATE SPINNER

Chances that a tropical storm or hurricane will strike Florida this year are nearly 100 percent, forecasters with Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology project estimated Wednesday.

With both a higher-than-normal number of tropical storms, and more of them expected to develop into hurricanes — five of them major, with winds of 111 mph or stronger — odds of a Florida hit are up this year, to 96 percent, significantly higher than most years, the forecasters said.

A total of 16 named tropical systems are expected, nine of them hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes are predicted to be major — Category 3 or stronger.

In its 28th year of making seasonal hurricane predictions, the Tropical Meteorology Project is considered one of the more accurate of several forecasting groups that attempt to make a call on hurricane activity before the beginning of the season.

Other forecasters are also calling for a busier-than-normal season, in part because ocean temperatures are again expected to be warmer-than-normal. Warm seas fuel more — and more intense — storms.

An average year brings six tropical storms and six hurricanes, with two of those hurricanes growing stronger than 111 mph.

Accuweather.com's forecast last week forecast 15 named storms.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30.

April is a tough month for forecasting hurricanes because one of the big influences on Atlantic storms — sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific — are a wild card. Pacific temperatures can fluctuate dramatically between spring and summer. Most hurricane activity occurs between August and October, the peak of hurricane season.

When the tropical Pacific is cooler than normal — called La Niņa — global weather patterns shift to reduce westerly winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic. Tropical systems travel with easterly winds and have an easy time gaining strength and churning across the Atlantic when there is little to no opposing wind shear to fight.

When the Pacific is warmer — called El Niņo — the opposite happens: wind shear increases. That shear can prevent storms from growing organized into a spinning tropical storm or hurricane. Strong upper winds also can tear apart the storms that do form.

At this time last year, the tropical Pacific was warmer than normal and the tropical Atlantic was warmer than ever recorded. Those conditions led to predictions for an active season, but it was even more active than forecast because meteorologists did not foresee the swift transition to La Niņa until the onset of summer. Last year brought 19 named storms, 12 of them hurricanes and five of them major.

"The million-dollar question from our perspective is what it's going to look like August through October," the Tropical Meteorology project's Phil Klotzbach said, referring to the tropical Pacific. "We think we'll probably have neutral conditions, which we think combined with the warm Atlantic would see a pretty active season."

Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal, but not near record-breaking. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are still cooler than normal, but not by much.

Seas need to reach roughly 80 degrees to support a hurricane in the Atlantic. Across most of the tropical Atlantic, temperatures are already in the 70 to 75 degree range, including in the Gulf of Mexico, almost two degrees above normal in some areas.

Some meteorologists speculate that the extremely warm Atlantic temperatures last year helped keep most of the storms that formed from making landfall. The storms formed much farther east that usual, causing many of them to track more northwestward, Klotzbach said.

Tropical waves — clusters of thunderstorms that form an arcing pattern — usually move due west. Once the storm systems start to circulate around a closed center, they tend to travel slightly northward. So storms that form far out in the eastern Atlantic have higher odds of veering out to sea without crossing land.

Steering patterns last year also swept storms away from the coast, but those patterns cannot be predicted months in advance, Klotzbach said.

The curving storms helped thwart forecasters' predictions last year that the U.S. would likely be struck by a hurricane.

Based just on the number of storms, Klotzbach has attempted to give landfall and hurricane impact probabilities for the entire eastern, Gulf and Caribbean coastline. Florida's chances of getting some hurricane impact this year are at 71 percent, odds that are about 20 percent greater than average.

For Sarasota County, chances this year are 8.5 percent that a storm will bring at least hurricane-force winds of 75 mph or greater — compared to the historic average of 5 percent.

The Colorado State forecast team makes incremental improvements in its forecasting each year and now expects its April forecasts to be right 72 percent of the time, in predicting either an above-average or below-average season. Forecasts rarely — if ever — pin down the exact number of storms that will form.