I think the higher-ups at Facebook are just now realizing that they're facing their first real crisis. Diaspora likely gave them about a half-day of indigestion and then some good laughs. But Ello is the real deal when it comes to a threat.

That said, I predict it will not succeed as a Facebook replacement. Indeed, their founder insists that it's not intended to be such. Is that hipsterism? Probably. But he's probably also right. While they're getting 30k+ signups per hour, people are going to react like they did to Google+ - that is, they'll sign up, play a little, find that it has nothing that Facebook doesn't already have, and usage will drop off. Ello has significantly fewer features that people want. If Google+ didn't get traction, Ello won't, either.

Yes, people want to migrate from Facebook because of their policies, but this threat is likely going to be the catalyst that forces Facebook to back down on the real name issue.

Now... want to know the issue that Ello could press that just might win it for them? Your feed. You don't want "top stories," you want everything, in order, without someone telling you what they think is relevant. You want to see it all and make that decision for yourself. That's Ello's concept of Friends/Noise and it makes sense. It's the one thing that Facebook won't back down about, and Ello could press this point.

Then again, Google+ didn't win that argument with "Circles." So maybe that won't work after all. But I think Circles were before the relevance issue came to a head.

Time will tell. But at least I'm on record so I can say I called it ;)

Well, not really, but just as stupid. As reported by Ars Technica, Facebook is now placing a [SATIRE] tag next to links that go off to The Onion. Clearly, Facebook is ruining the fun for those of us with enough brain cells to recognize satire when we see it, and is making the presumption that most of you are idiots.

Rumor has it that next week they'll be threatening to disclose the true identity of Santa Claus to anyone under 13 who lied about their age to get an account.

Hey Facebook? You want to do a little editorializing? How about you flag all of those linkbait sites as [DOG CRAP] while you're at it? Now that would be a non-abusive use of your power.

As reported by Gizmodo, Facebook is banning (in 90 days) the practice of requiring a user to like a page in order to see or have access to content.

You must not incentivize people to use social plugins or to like a Page. This includes offering rewards, or gating apps or app content based on whether or not a person has liked a Page. It remains acceptable to incentivize people to login to your app, checkin at a place or enter a promotion on your app's Page. To ensure quality connections and help businesses reach the people who matter to them, we want people to like Pages because they want to connect and hear from the business, not because of artificial incentives. We believe this update will benefit people and advertisers alike.