Tim Lincecum: 6.00 ERA after 13 starts, it’s time for the Giants to consider some options

On May 4, Tim Lincecum started against Milwaukee, went only 5 innings, but left with a 4-3 lead… that was soon given up by the Giants’ middle relief, leading to the Giants’ fourth straight loss.

That dropped them to 12-14, in fourth place in the NL West and 5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers, and things didn’t look so good at all for your fightin’ SFGs.

But everything changed from there for the Giants, with the notable exception of days when Lincecum starts.

The Giants have played great while Lincecum has remained bad. Both things have happened at once. Amazing. Just amazing how this has developed.

Let’s just put the record out there:

* From May 4 on, the Giants are 0-8 in Lincecum starts, including today against Texas.

* In the same time period, they’ve gone 22-6 in starts by anybody except Lincecum.

That’s been strong enough to get the Giants to 34-27, fourth-best record in the league, and allowed the SFGs to keep pace with the Dodgers, who have sustained their run.

Yes, if the Giants had been getting anything close to a decent W-L record in Lincecum’s last eight starts (say, 5-3), the Giants would be tied with the Dodgers right now, with the best record in baseball, instead of being 5 games back.

That is stunning to look at like that, at least to me. It has to be driving Lincecum mad and keeping Bruce Bochy, Dave Righetti and Brian Sabean up late at night pondering what to do next.

If it continues for even one more start, I don’t think there’s a question the Giants have to seriously consider skipping a Lincecum start or two. And I’m only giving him his next one guaranteed because it’s in Seattle–Lincecum’s home area–and he’s earned the right to get that start.

But if Lincecum remains shaky in Seattle, there’s an off-day that aligns perfectly with a chance to skip Lincecum from his turn on June 22 vs. the A’s–and just shuffle Bumgarner in there on regular rest.

Because the Giants have to see if a little rest can get Lincecum back on track… or if it can’t, then they really have to figure something out.

He says he’s not hurt and the Giants agree. He says it’s just a little thing here or there, and apparently the Giants agree with that.

Lincecum has accomplished enough to give him the benefit of the doubt through a lot of trouble… but that time has all but expired. Thirteen starts is just too much of the season to write off as a fluke.

Lincecum is either arm weary or hurt or totally out of sync or just not very good any more. Obviously, the Giants and their fans are scared about several of those possibilities… but they’re going to have to find out, scary or not, very soon.

-You know the overall stat: Overall this season, the Giants are 2-11 in Lincecum starts and 32-16 when anybody not named Lincecum starts a game this year.

And this isn’t just a fluke. Lincecum has a 6.00 ERA currently… and hasn’t dipped below 5.68 at any point during the season.

It’s not just a fluke due to a few bad starts–these 13 starts represent close to 40% of Lincecum’s scheduled slate of 33-34 starts.

To put it in Giants’ pitching perspective:

-Ryan Vogelsong is currently 2nd among qualified pitchers in NL ERA (2.26);

-Matt Cain is sixth (2.41);

-Barry Zito is 21st (3.24);

-and Madison Bumgarner is 22nd (3.26).

Lincecum is 63rd among NL qualifiers, leading only Atlanta’s Mike Minor, who is at 6.57.

I’ve been typing out the same general theory on this for weeks and weeks now (first attempt, April 17), and I’m not saying it’s absolutely correct, I’m just saying it’s the best one I can come up with.

And I’ll repeat it, with some minor tweaks, one more time…

* Lincecum has lost some natural velocity, either because he’s worn down by the innings-load the past few years or because he’s just out of sync with his very complicated delivery.

This gets even more pronounced when he’s pitching from the stretch, with less chance to gather momentum, and that means more tax on his arm.

*Lincecum has picked some of the velocity back up in the last handful of starts–so he hits 91-92 mph in the early innings–but I believe Lincecum is having to exert even more effort to do this, and that’s taking even more of a toll.

He knows he has to get up to speed, so I think he’s over-throwing, and that leads to spraying the fastball up and in, up and away, ball, ball.

With that shaky fastball command, it’s easier for hitters to read and disregard if it’s out of the zone, or foul it off when it is in the zone.

That leads Lincecum to throw the change-up more, since it’s now by far his best pitch. (I also think the change-up is a tough pitch on the arm over a series of years.)

But throwing it so much makes the change-up less effective, because what is he changing-up FROM … ?

So Lincecum has to throw the change-up even more violently, to get that sharp tumbling action–which makes THAT pitch harder to control, as we’ve seen when it habitually darts into the dirt for an easier take or hangs up and gets whacked.

* Further side effect: Hitters are sitting on the change-up, as we saw today when Mike Napoli took a straight fastball over the middle of the plate, clearly looking for the change-up.

And Josh Hamilton just destroyed a floating change-up for the two-run double kill shot in the sixth inning.

If Lincecum doesn’t throw it perfect… uh oh.

* And eventually, all the maximum-effort fastballs wear on Lincecum during the game–and the velocity drops back down to the danger 88-89 mph hit-me levels.

Which makes Lincecum less interested in throwing the flat fastball over the plate, and that leads to walks, which sets up more big innings and over and over.

The solution: Lincecum has to either become Greg Maddux and commit to a change-up/sinker/cutter repertoire to own the corners and knees (and give up on throwin 92 mph)…

Or Lincecum has to figure out how to harness that fastball over the long-term, if he can, and hope his arm holds up.

I don’t think Lincecum is a lost cause at all. He shows he can still pile up the strikeouts, even while he struggles. He just can’t sustain it… and I think that means he has to change a lot of things over the next few years.

His future–and the Giants’ commitment to him–will probably be determined by the eagerness with which he embraces a reinvention of his repertoire and, of course, the ability to master it.

All I have to say is, I am happy that we locked up Madbum and Cain for 5 more yrs; they are the true horses of this rotation. Having Lincecum pass on the FO’s 5-6 year offer is looking like a blessing. All the pressure is on him to maintain/recuperate his value over the next year and half.

Of course, I am hoping he returns to original form, but hey, just saying… With Zito and Timmy expiring after next season, that’s 44mm the Giants have to see what other pitching or hitting options are available. Not a terrible problem to have IMO.

MissouriBoy

Agree, locking up Cain and MadBum were great moves. I have always said Cain was #1 pitcher, because he had very bad run support in his early years yet had a very good ERA. Timmy is not getting any run support this year, but his high ERA shows he is not a top-end pitcher (at least this year). After Seattle game, give him a week of rest, then several weeks in AAA. While in AAA, Timmy needs to perfect hitting the corners with his off-speed stuff. His body type will not support mid-90’s fastballs in his 30’s. The falloff was destined to come, it just came a little earlier than expected.

mikey

lincecum has lost velocity and he’s overthrowing just to hit the 90s. overthrowing leads to walks. it’s up to the pitching coach, his father, and himself to figure out how to pitch without the velocity.

Mike

It’s just so crazy what has happend to Lincecum this year … a different variation of “Linsantity,” you might say.

But TK, I respect the fact that you’re not sugar-coating the reporting on his performance. It’s been closer to zete-like than zen-like. Fingers crossed he can turn it around.

TImmy is not in shape. Here’s a young man who trashes his rental apartment, gets caught with marijuana, has a great time in his new Seattle condominium, which is right in the heart of all the night spots in town, and then comes to camp 20 pounds under weight on a frame which can ill afford to lose it. Red flags should have been flying in the Giants front office for some time now about these things.
His lousy Spring and now regular season just confirms that something is wrong with the kid. He has not been taking care of himself.
Babe Ruth once remarked that, aw, a fella has got to have some fun.
Maybe so, but I hope Timmy (and Panda) wake up soon.

3rdKing

thanking fate….

for Timmy turning down our contract offer…

and Timmy’s skills shining at the right time….TSFGWTWS

cabrera and pagan instead of Timmy…

Grey Warden

The 2012 Tim Lincecum on the mound is not the real Lincecum. It’s his twin bro Luiz Lins pitching instead lol 😉

RamboDave

The dirty little secret that nobody wants to talk about is that Lincecum, along with more than half of major league pitchers, are into performance enhanceing drugs. Remenber, this is the Rittilan generation.

Sure the league may test for amphetamines, remember even Barry Bonds got busted for these his last season with us. But, the players know in advance when they will be tested.

The problem with amphetamines is that there is diminishing returns after just a few months. The players can’t do amphetamines for an entire season. That is why Lincecum has his August dissapearence, only to come back strong to finish the season.

However, this year Lincecum is waiting out the first part of the season before he starts back on to his amphetamines full time. With the exception of his first 3 starts this year (which were drug free), he has been trying to get by with a low dose. He was hoping that nobody would notice how bad he was.

But, now that we all have noticed………. My prediction….. Lincecum’s next start will be his best, and from this point on, he will finish the season very strong, and we will love it, because we don’t care that he is dependent on drugs. And because this is the “don’t ask, don’t tell” subject of Major League Baseball.

JeffB

Wes, even Babe Ruth knew when enough was enough. When Babe was 30 (1925) he was horribly out of shape. At the end of the season, he found a gym in NY and began a diet/workout program.
He ended up losing 44lbs, had a great comeback year in 1926, and continued with a training program for the rest of his playing days.

While I think an intensive physical fitness routine would help immensely, I don’t think Timmy’s problems are JUST physical fitness. He needs much more than that. For that reason, he needs to be removed from the rotation immediately.

Zito & Timmy have done a Freaky Friday switch. Timmy is now the former Cy Young winner who has lost it, and must find a way back to the rotation. The longer they drag this out, (by not demoting him) the harder it is on the team.

Mark M

Timmy gets a long long leash after what he’s done for this franchise. Never count that kid out. I’m not saying Tim K is doing that. But no action need be taken except amongst the coaches and player. I’d give them a full season to iron this issue out. I’m betting it’s a non issue by September.

obo

“Thirteen starts is just too much of the season to write off as a fluke.” No, it isn’t. He is pitching much better than that ERA suggests.

San Mateo duck

There’s something most people don’t know. However, best guess is we’ll know something shortly.

blueniner

For Lincecum, his future is= Think Joe Nathan

All star team

Will Timmy make the all-star team this year?

Spiketronic

RamboDave: your accusations would be out of line, even if you could spell. I think Missouriboy has it right – time for Tim to rely less on his stuff and learn to paint the knees with a selection of less electric pitches.

sliver1935

I’m hoping the drug accusations are not true. Cause if they are, you can kiss the kid’s career, perhaps his future careers goodbye. That stuff is insidious. What a huge tragedy that will be for fans, for the Giants, and most of all for Lincecum himself.

Obrother

No proof on the drug thing. Throwing drug accusations is irresponsible in my opinion. The bottom line is we do t kn ow what the problem is. Timmy might not even know

slamdunk

Agree that Lincecum needs to skip a turn or two to try and get straightened out. Since there is no great prospective starters to bring up, the Giants have no choice but to hope that Timmy can turn it around. He may need to be put on a short leash by Bochy too, especially if he has a lead, to give him a confidence win, which I think right now is more important than having Bochy leave him in one batter too long. Timmy may now be a seven inning pitcher, similar to Zito, so he should not be overtaxed to throw 130 pitches just to finish a game.

RamboDave

If you want to understand how bad it is with stimulants in Baseball go to the link below and read this article. Here is an excerpt. Think of Lincecum when you read it.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Adderall’s on First, Ritalin’s on Second: The Ongoing Saga of PEDs in Baseball.

When the league banned anphetamines in 2008, an amazing thing happened. The number of players claiming and obtaining “therapeutic use” exemptions for stimulants nearly quadrupled from 28 to 103.

“Therapeutic use” means you can justifiably use the drug because you need it for a medical condition.

Hear No Evil… Before the ban only 28 players had “therapeutic use exemptions” allowing them to take drugs such as Ritalin or Adderall. Twenty-eight. Then somehow magically that number jumps to over 100 as soon as the ban kicks in?

ADHD is a psychological diagnosis. Like post-traumatic stress disorder or bipolar disorder it’s open to interpretation in any given patient. Three doctors may say you don’t have it. A fourth may say you do.

Among adults, the rate of diagnosis for ADHD is between 1 percent and 3.5 percent. But among pro baseball players, the disease seems epidemic. That means 8 percent of major-league players have ADHD—twice the rate among children and three to eight times the rate among adults.