Prediction: SDSU vs. Navy in Armed Forces Bowl

Here's the beat writer's take on the current bowl mess

San Diego State's Vincent Brown (80) beats Navy's De'Von Richardson (3) to the end zone on a 53-yard touchdown-reception in the first quarter of the Poinsettia Bowl football game in San Diego, Thursday, Dec. 23, 2010. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)
— AP

San Diego State's Vincent Brown (80) beats Navy's De'Von Richardson (3) to the end zone on a 53-yard touchdown-reception in the first quarter of the Poinsettia Bowl football game in San Diego, Thursday, Dec. 23, 2010. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)
/ AP

The general gist of it is that officially, no one has any clue who's going to end up where. Everyone's eyes are on Fresno State and the BCS because that will have a domino effect on the rest of the Mountain West's bowl lineup.

But after all my research, this is my educated guess: Aztecs fans, pack your bags for Fort Worth, Texas.

That's my take on how it will all play out as long as last week of the regular season plays out the way I predict below.

As we roll into the final week of the regular season, eight Mountain West teams are still in the hunt for bowl bids:

Their final opponents are listed after the parentheses

WEST:

1 -- Fresno State (10-0 overall, 7-0 MWC) vs. SJSU

2 -- SDSU (7-4, 6-1) vs. UNLV

3 -- SJSU (5-6, 4-3) vs. Fresno State

4 -- UNLV (6-5, 4-5) vs. SDSU

MOUNTAIN:

1 -- Utah State (7-4, 6-1) vs. Wyoming

2 -- Boise State (7-4, 5-2) vs. Navy

3 -- Colorado State (6-6, 4-3) vs. Air Force

4 -- Wyoming (5-6, 3-4) vs. Utah State.

My predictions:

Fresno State will beat San Jose State

San Diego State will beat UNLV

Utah State will beat Wyoming

Colorado State will beat Air Force.

If all that holds true, there will be six bowl eligible teams left at the end of the week: Fresno State, SDSU, Utah State, Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State.

Then Fresno will play Utah State for the MWC championship.

Bulldogs win out -- they preserve their BCS hopes.

Bulldogs lose -- they go to the Las Vegas bowl.

While Fresno State's BCS fate determines what the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl and the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowls will do, I contend that it has no bearing on SDSU's future.

Let's say Fresno State does get a BCS bid. This is how I think the rest of the lineup will fall into place.

BCS: Fresno State

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah State

Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State

Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: No eligible MWC team

Let's say Fresno State either loses to Utah State in the championship game or does not get a BCS bid. This is how I think the MWC's bowl lineup will look then:

Las Vegas: Fresno State

Poinsettia: Utah State

Armed Forces Bowl: Boise State

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: SDSU

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Colorado State

Now before you all jump at me for shafting the Aztecs, etc, this is how I came to those conclusions. (I assure you they are based in logic):

In the scenario where Fresno State gets to the BCS, I think:

The Las Vegas Bowl will take Utah State because they're the MWC runner-up, they travel well, and Boise State has played in Las Vegas three years in a row.

The Poinsettia Bowl will jump to take Boise State because, well it's Boise State. And the Aztecs have played there two out of the last three years.

The Armed Forces Bowl will snap up the Aztecs.

In the scenario where Fresno State does not get to the BCS, I think:

The Las Vegas Bowl grabs the Bulldogs. Duh.

The Poinsettia Bowl snaps up Utah State because Boise fans were already here for the SDSU vs. Boise State game. Plus, this bowl does place a premium on record and matchups, and the Aggies would be MWC runner's up. That and they also bring lots of fans. Also SDSU has already played in this bowl two of the last three years. They'd want a fresh matchup. Win-win all around.

The Armed Forces Bowl picks up Boise State because of the fact that they travel so well.

Of SDSU, UNLV and Colorado State, I think the Hawaii Bowl would take UNLV because SDSU and Colorado State have already played in Hawaii this year. Reasoning being that the fans might not travel again. Hawaii on short notice ain't cheap folks!

Then the New Mexico Bowl would gleefully grab the Aztecs. They like SDSU, especially because of the Rocky Long connection. Theory goes that even if the fans don't travel well, all Long's fans in New Mexico might come out for the game.

This would leave Colorado State to make the trip north to frigid Boise for the Potato Bowl.

Of course now that I've laid out all my thoughts, all the teams that I just predicted would win this weekend will now proceed to choke that away just to prove me wrong. Ha.