Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Ravens Riding Rice

The Dolphins are defending the run better than anyone east of San Francisco, but they have not faced a running back with the lateral agility and elusiveness of LeSean McCoy. McCoy has proven matchup-proof in six meetings with top-11 run defenses, compiling a per-game total yard average of 113.2 with nine touchdowns. He's rushed 100 times for 484 yards (4.84 YPC) in those games. Don't overthink: Start McCoy. He's the No. 1 running back in fantasy football. ... Michael Vick will return from his cracked ribs to start against the Dolphins. While the Miami defense has held its last seven opponents to an average of 13 points per game, keep in mind that the Fins have faced just two top-ten offenses during that span and both scored 20 against them. The Eagles are third in total offense, and Vick is the No. 7 quarterback in fantasy points per game. He's a QB1 again. ... Tight ends have had success against the Dolphins this season, but Jeremy Maclin's return from hamstring and shoulder injuries will cut into Brent Celek's targets. Whereas Celek has averaged 54 yards per game when Maclin sits out a game or is injured during one (four-week sample size), he's managed 33 yards a game in Maclin’s healthy eight. Celek should be considered a TE2 going forward.

Maclin is in a similar position to Vick. He is coming off an extended absence and multiple injuries, but is a plug-and-play starter when healthy as a top-20 receiver in fantasy points per game. Maclin also has a more favorable Week 14 matchup than DeSean Jackson. Maclin plays the majority of his snaps on the left side of the formation at split end, the position most often covered by Dolphins RCB Sean Smith. Smith is far worse in coverage than LCB Vontae Davis. Miami's corner-wideout matchups are not 100% predictable -- see their Thanksgiving assignment of Davis to Cowboys split end Dez Bryant and Smith to flanker Laurent Robinson -- but this is how it usually goes. If the assumptions are right, I like Maclin's chances of a big game and dislike Jackson's. ... Like Celek, Eagles slot receiver Jason Avant's targets and yardage totals will be affected by Maclin's healthy return. It doesn't help that Avant has been held to 20 yards or fewer in four of his last five games.

Matt Moore is effectively managing games for the Dolphins, averaging 27 attempts per week with nine touchdowns in nine appearances (eight starts). He has two multi-TD games and four without a score. Moore has emerged as a passable real-life quarterback, but he's just a two-QB league option against an Eagles defense that ranks fifth in sacks and is a top-13 unit versus the pass. Expect another ground-heavy approach from Miami. ... The Eagles were improving in run defense before meeting their match last Thursday night against the Seahawks. Marshawn Lynch exposed Philly's embarrassing tackling for 148 rushing yards, a personal high since Lynch's rookie season in 2007. Reggie Bush remains the Dolphins' feature back and has a favorable Week 14 matchup. Daniel Thomas is still just a change-of-pace runner. ... Locked in as a WR2, Brandon Marshall is the No. 17 fantasy receiver in both standard leagues and PPR. Eagles LCB Asante Samuel plays almost strictly "off" coverage, which Marshall can eat alive, and RCB Nnamdi Asomugha (knee, concussion) won't be 100 percent if he's active for the game. This is a very strong matchup for Marshall. ... Anthony Fasano is the No. 7 overall fantasy tight end over the past five weeks, in large part because he scored a pair of touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 9. Fasano has four TDs on the season and is averaging under 30 yards a game. He's a desperation fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Dolphins 20

New Orleans @ Tennessee

Chris Johnson's on-field performance is back on track, so the only factor that might deter him Sunday would be a big lead for the Saints, forcing the Titans into pass-heavy comeback mode. Tennessee will try to prevent that by force feeding Johnson to keep Drew Brees off the field. The matchup is working in Johnson's favor, as New Orleans allows 4.95 yards per carry. Effectively turning his season around just in time for fantasy playoffs, C.J. has 561 yards and three TDs on his last 101 carries (5.55 YPC). He had one score and 291 yards on his initial 105 attempts (2.77 YPC). ... Damian Williams is worth a WR3 look because he leads the Titans in targets over the past five games and will face off mostly with Saints RCB Patrick Robinson on Sunday. Nate Washington gets the tougher draw versus LCB Jabari Greer. My money would be on Williams leading Tennessee in Week 14 receiving. Washington is a weak WR3 gamble. ... Jared Cook set season lows in targets (1) and snaps (21) in Week 13 and is off the standard-league radar at this point. ... Perhaps a surprise shootout could buoy Matt Hasselbeck in a two-quarterback league, but he is averaging a pathetic 178 yards per game since Tennessee's Week 6 bye and has been held to 160 yards or fewer in three straight games. The Titans would be better off taking their chances with rookie Jake Locker, and you're better off leaving Hasselbeck off your fantasy roster.

I could give you stats and scouting reports that might make the Titans' pass defense look like a tough matchup, but they can be thrown out the window for the hottest quarterback south of Green Bay. Drew Brees has a 17:3 TD-to-INT ratio with an 18th touchdown on a rushing score over his past six games. He's eclipsed 300 yards in 9-of-12 weeks and is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback. ... Marques Colston is still squarely in the WR2 realm as the top wideout in the NFL's top-ranked passing offense, but Colston has a difficult matchup. Titans RCB Cortland Finnegan covers the slot when opponents use three- and four-wide sets, and Colston will face off with him frequently both inside and out. At 5'10/188, Finnegan has struggled with big receivers in the past (e.g. Andre Johnson), but is playing at an All-Pro level this season. Fantasy owners filthy rich at receiver can use these facts to break lineup ties. ... Jimmy Graham is the safest bet to lead New Orleans in receiving against the Titans. Playing musical chairs at safety, Tennessee has permitted the fifth most yards and fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Graham is set up for a monster day.

Robert Meachem has consistently played a significant amount of snaps this season and is a 67% player on the year. His targets and production have been another story. While he a plus matchup with Titans LCB Jason McCourty (concussion) in danger of missing this game, Meachem is a high-upside, high-risk WR3. He is a better bet than Devery Henderson and quite arguably Lance Moore, who sees less field time than Meachem and offers inferior big-play ability. Meachem is coming off a 3-119-1 line. Moore had 2-23-1 against Detroit. ... Mark Ingram's case of turf toe is not believed to be severe, but the Saints held him out of practice all week and will lean on their impressive backfield depth in Nashville. Here was New Orleans' backfield touches-yardage-touchdown distribution during Ingram's two missed games earlier this season: Pierre Thomas 23-125-2, Darren Sproles 21-175-1, Chris Ivory 21-85-0. ... Little else changes in the three-headed monster when Ivory replaces Ingram as the short-yardage/power back. Sproles and Thomas both stay heavily involved and will be worthwhile flex options against Tennessee's No. 21 run defense.

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Titans 17

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville

LeGarrette Blount's Week 13 clunker would have been predictable if we knew going in that the Panthers would blow out the Bucs. Tampa coaches refuse to use Blount in passing situations, and he wound up playing only 26-of-57 snaps (45.6%) as the Bucs fell behind 14-0 early. If you believe the Jaguars will win a Week 14 blowout, sit LeGarrette Blount. Injury-ruined Jacksonville certainly doesn't present an imposing run-defense matchup. Over the last three games, opposing backs have touched up the Jags for 348 yards and four touchdowns on 71 carries (4.90 YPC). ... Overcoming musical chairs at quarterback, Mike Williams has turned around his season with at least 80 yards in three consecutive games. The key stat: no dropped passes. If you watched last Monday night's Chargers-Jaguars game, you know Jacksonville's secondary is incredibly vulnerable after losing three of its top four corners to injured reserve, plus FS Dwight Lowery (shoulder). Williams has played well enough recently to "earn" a WR3 start in a plus matchup.

Here is Tampa Bay's target distribution during Williams' three-game hot run: Williams 31, Kellen Winslow 23, Arrelious Benn 15, Preston Parker 8, Dezmon Briscoe 5. ... Winslow's knees are shot after six surgeries, and he no longer possesses legit playmaking ability. The matchup is still good enough that Winslow isn't a terrible fallback option for Fred Davis owners. No team in the league has allowed more receptions to tight ends than Jacksonville. ... Benn, Briscoe, and Parker don't get the ball enough for fantasy reliability. ... Josh Johnson connected on pretty deep throws to Williams (42 yards), Benn (38), and Briscoe (23-yard TD) against the Panthers, showing that all is not lost for the skill players around him when Johnson plays. Josh Freeman (shoulder) is expected to start against the Jaguars, but Johnson's performance was confidence-instilling if Tampa Bay's starter is unable to make it through the game. Freeman has been a QB2 all season, and there's little to reason believe that will change Sunday despite the collapsing opponent.

You already know, but Tampa's defense is getting destroyed on the ground. Over their last six games, the Bucs have been stampeded for 1,103 yards and 12 touchdowns on 202 carries (5.46 YPC). Six games, and that'd be a nice full season for one running back. Expect another decidedly run-heavy game plan from interim coach Mel Tucker, whose goal is to win games and earn the Jags' full-time head coaching job rather than play out the string. Feeding Maurice Jones-Drew gives Tucker his best chance. As the No. 4 fantasy back through 12 games, MJD is a shoo-in top-five runner in Week 14. ... We've seen the "upside" of Jacksonville's wide receivers and tight ends, and it isn't pretty. Blaine Gabbert had his best game of the season last Monday night, but Jones-Drew was the only player on the roster to clear 30 receiving yards. Marcedes Lewis is now dealing with an ankle injury, and wideouts Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard, and Cecil Shorts form the laughingstock unit of the league. MJD is the only start-able Jaguar during the fantasy playoffs.

Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Jaguars 17

New England @ Washington

Fred Davis' season-ending suspension leaves fantasy owners in a bind because the Redskins don't have a pass-catching replacement on their roster. Logan Paulsen (one career touchdown at UCLA) is a blocking specialist, and Mike Sellers is an ex-fullback. Tight ends won't be a big part of Washington's offense in the last four games. ... The obvious beneficiary of Davis' loss projects to be Santana Moss, who shouldn't struggle to lead the Skins in targets down the stretch. Moss sees frequent action in the slot, running over-the-middle routes where Davis did much of his damage. The Patriots have had trouble slowing slot receivers (see Jason Avant 8-110-1, Davone Bess 5-92, Victor Cruz 6-91, David Nelson 6-84) all season. Moss is a rock-solid WR3 for the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Pats (No. 32 pass defense), Giants (No. 29), and Vikings (26) to finish up. ... New England got top corner Devin McCourty back from a shoulder injury in Week 13, and McCourty will match up with Jabar Gaffney for the majority of this game. Gaffney may be slightly more productive with Davis out of the lineup, but he's a significantly worse bet than Moss.

At the same time, LT Trent Williams' four-game ban will make life tougher on Rex Grossman. Rex has already turned the ball over seven times in the last month, and Williams would've spent this game blocking top Patriots pass rusher Andre Carter (nine sacks). The Skins have resorted to an in-practice competition between veteran Seahawks castoff Sean Locklear and undrafted rookie Willie Smith. Grossman may simply not have a clean enough pocket to capitalize on what could have been a favorable pass-defense matchup. He's a two-QB league option only. You don’t want to pin your fantasy playoff hopes on Rex Grossman, anyway. ... Roy Helu was the Redskins' offensive centerpiece in Week 13 before the game got a bit out of hand in the second half. Helu touched the football 10 times on Washington's initial 14 offensive snaps, picking up 68 yards and a touchdown. Neither Evan Royster nor Ryan Torain received a single carry. This game could get out of hand as well if the Patriots pour on points as they normally do, but Helu can compensate in fantasy leagues because he's an excellent check-down target. While New England does have a top-ten run defense, Helu is a must-start because he's a safe bet for 20 touches.

Washington is playing top-ten pass defense, but it hardly matters for New England's matchup-proof passing attack. Tom Brady has faced top-ten pass defenses in four games this year, going a combined 105-of-147 (71.4%) for 1,271 yards (8.65 YPA) with a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio. It can't hurt Brady's chances of a big game that Skins SS LaRon Landry (groin) will not play. ... Wes Welker is on a vicious tear with 19 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. He's too quick for Redskins oversized slot CB Kevin Barnes to handle. ... Landry vs. Rob Gronkowski might have been an intriguing one-on-one matchup in this game, but it won't happen because of Landry's injury. Gronkowski is the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end and can't be stopped. ... Deion Branch is a hit-or-miss fantasy option with only one game over 60 yards in the past six weeks. As New England's lone viable outside receiver, Branch is more likely to be affected by the Redskins' solid cornerback play than Gronkowski or Welker. Feel free to sit Branch for higher-upside bets.

No Patriots running back exceeded eight carries in Week 13 as Bill Belichick went experimental against the winless Colts. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the only viable fantasy play in New England's backfield, but carries risk due to the unpredictable usage. Rookie Stevan Ridley led the group in touches last week. Law Firm had the lone touchdown. Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead were sprinkled in, and Shane Vereen was inactive due either to a hamstring injury or the fact that he simply wasn't in the game plan. ... It's just a matter of time before Aaron Hernandez resumes scoring touchdowns. He has 13 catches in his last two games and was targeted on a goal-line play at the end of the second quarter last week. The week before, Hernandez caught a 13-yard pass to get down to the Eagles' 15-yard line and had another first-quarter red-zone target. Hernandez is no Gronk, but he's definitely an every-week fantasy starter. The TDs will come.

Score Prediction: Patriots 33, Redskins 17

1:00PM ET Games

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Something changed in Baltimore after the Ravens' Week 10 loss in Seattle, because the offensive philosophy has been entirely different since. Whereas Joe Flacco averaged 40 attempts a game during the season's initial nine weeks, he hasn't exceeded 27 during the club's three-game win streak. Over the past three games, the Ravens' run-to-pass ratio is a smash-mouth 118-74, and Ray Rice is on fire as the No. 1 overall fantasy back during that span. Expect Rice to stay hot and Baltimore's offense conservative against a Colts defense that ranks 30th against the run and may be minus MLB Pat Angerer (knee). Rice is the No. 1 fantasy running back play in Week 14. ... Ricky Williams came off the bench for season highs in carries (16) and yards (76) in Week 13, and the production wasn't all in garbage time. He had six rushing attempts and 43 yards at the half. The Ravens appear to be firing up a two-pronged, ground-based attack, and it's reasonable to believe Williams could emerge from a second straight game with worthwhile flex value. Just keep in mind that Williams is no lock for an extensive workload because he's rarely received them all year, and he offers minimal upside. Rice is the heavy favorite for all goal-line work in Baltimore.

Just as Rice's value peaks, Flacco's is in the gutter. He's become a more talented version of Alex Smith. Flacco's receivers should be open against a Colts secondary that lost top corner Jerraud Powers (elbow) and slot CB Terrence Johnson (forearm) to injured reserve this week, but will he even throw 20 times? Flacco has been removed from standard fantasy league consideration. ... Indy's defense is built to stop big plays, the bread and butter of Torrey Smith's game. This isn't a good week to use him. ... Behind Rice, Anquan Boldin is the strongest Week 14 fantasy bet on Baltimore's roster. The smallish Colts struggle to stop big wideouts. ... Ed Dickson is averaging three targets per game since the aforementioned Seahawks loss, spending most of his time blocking. The over/under on his Week 14 targets should be either two or three. Look elsewhere.

Dan Orlovsky's 30-for-37, 353-yard Week 13 stat line is deceptive because the Patriots fielded a farm-team defense against the Colts. They started street free agent Nathan Jones, wideout/return specialist Matt Slater, and James Ihedigbo in a three-safety package, with special teamer Niko Koutouvides at linebacker. Per Pro Football Focus, Slater played 71-of-74 snaps despite entering the game having not played a defensive down since his days at UCLA five years ago. No Colts receiver had more than 22 yards until second-half comeback mode. The Ravens will take this game far more seriously than the Patriots did, while decisively winning the time-of-possession battle. If you are starting Pierre Garcon or Reggie Wayne, you are banking on a throw-happy deficit to carry their numbers. And they're not facing backups for the NFL's worst pass defense anymore. Baltimore ranks fifth against the pass. ... Dallas Clark is due back from his fibula injury after a four-week absence. Neither Clark nor Jacob Tamme is a fantasy option against a Ravens defense that has allowed one touchdown to a tight end all season -- Evan Moore's Week 13 garbage-time score. ... Just as Donald Brown appeared to be taking over as Indianapolis' feature back, Joseph Addai returned healthy in Week 13 and the two split time right down the middle with Delone Carter also seeing an increased role. This is an obvious fantasy situation to avoid against Baltimore's No. 2 run defense.

Score Prediction: Ravens 21, Colts 3

Minnesota @ Detroit

It's no secret that the Vikings are struggling to stop the pass, having lost their top two corners (Antoine Winfield, Chris Cook) and best cover safety (Husain Abdullah) for the season. Over the past seven games, opposing quarterbacks have completed 146-of-205 passes (71.2%) against Minnesota for 1,808 yards (8.82 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Vikings have not picked off a pass since Week 5. The Lions have lost three of their past four games, but this mismatch should get them back on track. Detroit has a top-five passing offense, and Minnesota a bottom-six pass defense. Expect a big game for Matthew Stafford. ... Calvin Johnson's production has slowed a bit recently due to double and triple teaming, but this matchup couldn't set up better for Megatron. In his last six games against the Vikings, Johnson has piled up 33 receptions, 468 receiving yards, and five touchdowns, good for an average line of nearly 6-80-1. And Minnesota's secondary has never been this far from full strength during Megatron's career. ... Nate Burleson's on-field performance has left plenty to be desired, but he appears to have re-overtaken Brandon Pettigrew as Stafford's primary target over the middle. Showing consistency again with at least five catches in four straight games, Burleson is somewhat appealing as a WR3 in PPR leagues.

Pettigrew hasn't exceeded 50 yards since Week 4, staying on the line more to block and running not nearly as many routes as Burleson. Here is Stafford's target distribution since the Lions' Week 9 bye: Megatron 43, Burleson 31, Pettigrew 26, Maurice Morris 20, Titus Young 17, Tony Scheffler 16, Kevin Smith 16. ... Scheffler and Young are big-play threats, but fifth and sixth options in the passing game. ... The Lions would be smart to give Smith a week to let his ankle heal after a Week 13 setback. He could return as a recommended RB2 against the Raiders in Week 15. Instead, Smith is apparently going to give it a go against the Vikings, which will probably result in another three-way running back committee also involving Morris and Keiland Williams. Smith is a poor bet to last two quarters, Morris is a sorry excuse for a running back, and the Vikings have a top-seven defense in terms of yards-per-carry allowed. This is an obvious week to avoid the Lions’ backfield, even if Smith is scratched Sunday morning.

UPDATE: Smith did attempt to practice Friday, but couldn't make cuts on his troublesome ankle and left before the session ended. He is not expected to play against Minnesota. Morris and Williams will handle backfield duties. Morris is a deep PPR league option only in a difficult matchup.

The Lions played top-five pass defense in the season's first half, but they're no longer an imposing matchup without top interior pass rusher Ndamukong Suh (suspension), FS Louis Delmas (knee), nickel DE Lawrence Jackson (thigh), and CB Chris Houston (knee). In a possible shootout under the Ford Field dome, Christian Ponder is a high-upside QB2. I like the over on Vegas' 46.5-point projection for this game. ... Here is Ponder's target distribution during the last five weeks: Percy Harvin 38, Devin Aromashodu 36, Visanthe Shiancoe 22, Kyle Rudolph 14. ... Aromashodu saw a year-high 15 targets in Week 13 as the Vikings attacked Broncos RCB Andre' Goodman. Ponder only threw at Champ Bailey six times, completing two. Aromashodu is averaging over 20 yards per reception and has tools for the vertical passing game, but has only one touchdown on the year and has cleared 45 receiving yards once in the past seven games. It is still somewhat conceivable that Aromashodu could finish on a more consistent note with Michael Jenkins (knee) on injured reserve.

The Vikings are calling Ponder's (hip) status a game-time decision, and the above take stands if he is able to start. We'll know his availability early Sunday. Aromashodu and the tight ends' start-ability will go in the gutter if Ponder doesn't play, but there is reason to believe Harvin can maintain high-end WR3 value, at the very least. In Webb's two starts late last season, Harvin posted stat lines of 7-100 and 8-69 while leading Minnesota in targets (22). Webb has attempted 91 career passes, intending 29 for Harvin. The "target rate" of 31.9% would lead the NFL this season. Don't forget that the Vikings' staff has featured Harvin offensively with Adrian Peterson (ankle) at less than 100%, and that won't change just because the quarterback might be different. ... Peterson appears likely to return from his high ankle sprain after practicing on Thursday and rebounding well enough to practice again on Friday. He has recovered ahead of schedule; this is not a matter of the Vikings “pushing” Peterson to play. If Peterson is active – regardless of Ponder’s availability – he’s an obvious RB1 against Detroit’s No. 22 run defense. Toby Gerhart would resume non-factor status.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Vikings 19

Kansas City @ NY Jets

Shonn Greene busted his scoring slump with a career-high three touchdowns in last week's 34-19 dismantling of the Redskins, and may quietly be poised for a hot finish. The Jets close the fantasy season against the Chiefs (No. 25 run defense), Eagles (No. 17), and Giants (23) in three outdoor games that may be affected by unsavory East Coast weather. Greene also happens to be playing well, racking up 454 yards on his last 94 carries (4.83 YPC) while LaDainian Tomlinson (knee) and Joe McKnight (elbow) have battled injuries. Greene should be a reliable, if low-end RB2 the rest of the way. ... The Chiefs have the NFL's weakest safeties, so it probably comes as little surprise that they've served up a league-most eight touchdowns to tight ends. While Dustin Keller has been an unreliable fantasy contributor since the season's first three weeks, this is a favorable matchup for him. He's worth a look for Fred Davis (suspension) owners, in particular.

Mark Sanchez is currently the No. 11 overall fantasy quarterback, although Michael Vick, Tim Tebow, and Carson Palmer rank lower due to playing-time differentials and are all better plays than him. Sanchez remains a two-QB league starter against K.C.'s top-twelve pass defense. ... Santonio Holmes will spend most of this game in Chiefs LCB Brandon Flowers' coverage, giving Holmes a difficult matchup. He's just a WR3 option. ... Plaxico Burress gets a more favorable draw against RCB Brandon Carr. Plax has better potential for a big performance than Holmes.

At the same time the Chiefs' backfield is morphing into a three-way committee led by washed-up Thomas Jones, Kansas City is set to square off with a Jets defense shutting down run games. New York has allowed two touchdowns to tailbacks since Week 5, over that span permitting 543 yards on 159 carries (3.41 YPC) to the position. Dexter McCluster, Jackie Battle, and Jones can be safely left out of Week 14 fantasy lineups. Jones has zero touchdowns on the year, Battle's role has dwindled, and McCluster's Week 13 score came on a 38-yard Hail Mary at the end of the first half. McCluster is 5-foot-8, so it required Brian Urlacher batting the pass directly into the pint-sized scatback's arms for McCluster to come down with the ball. It doesn't get flukier than that. ... Per Pro Football Focus, Darrelle Revis has allowed 25-of-62 throws in his direction to be complete this season for 362 yards (5.84 YPA) and one touchdown. (Stevie Johnson was the lucky one.) Dwayne Bowe can expect to see plenty of Revis in coverage and is a dicey fantasy bet with the Chiefs starting Tyler Palko again. ... Steve Breaston has scored a touchdown in 1-of-12 games. Jonathan Baldwin has not topped 26 yards since Week 8. In the first round of the fantasy playoffs, it wouldn't be a bad idea to avoid the entire Chiefs roster against New York's top-seven defense.

Score Prediction: Jets 23, Chiefs 7

Philadelphia @ Miami

The Dolphins are defending the run better than anyone east of San Francisco, but they have not faced a running back with the lateral agility and elusiveness of LeSean McCoy. McCoy has proven matchup-proof in six meetings with top-11 run defenses, compiling a per-game total yard average of 113.2 with nine touchdowns. He's rushed 100 times for 484 yards (4.84 YPC) in those games. Don't overthink: Start McCoy. He's the No. 1 running back in fantasy football. ... Michael Vick will return from his cracked ribs to start against the Dolphins. While the Miami defense has held its last seven opponents to an average of 13 points per game, keep in mind that the Fins have faced just two top-ten offenses during that span and both scored 20 against them. The Eagles are third in total offense, and Vick is the No. 7 quarterback in fantasy points per game. He's a QB1 again. ... Tight ends have had success against the Dolphins this season, but Jeremy Maclin's return from hamstring and shoulder injuries will cut into Brent Celek's targets. Whereas Celek has averaged 54 yards per game when Maclin sits out a game or is injured during one (four-week sample size), he's managed 33 yards a game in Maclin’s healthy eight. Celek should be considered a TE2 going forward.

Maclin is in a similar position to Vick. He is coming off an extended absence and multiple injuries, but is a plug-and-play starter when healthy as a top-20 receiver in fantasy points per game. Maclin also has a more favorable Week 14 matchup than DeSean Jackson. Maclin plays the majority of his snaps on the left side of the formation at split end, the position most often covered by Dolphins RCB Sean Smith. Smith is far worse in coverage than LCB Vontae Davis. Miami's corner-wideout matchups are not 100% predictable -- see their Thanksgiving assignment of Davis to Cowboys split end Dez Bryant and Smith to flanker Laurent Robinson -- but this is how it usually goes. If the assumptions are right, I like Maclin's chances of a big game and dislike Jackson's. ... Like Celek, Eagles slot receiver Jason Avant's targets and yardage totals will be affected by Maclin's healthy return. It doesn't help that Avant has been held to 20 yards or fewer in four of his last five games.

Matt Moore is effectively managing games for the Dolphins, averaging 27 attempts per week with nine touchdowns in nine appearances (eight starts). He has two multi-TD games and four without a score. Moore has emerged as a passable real-life quarterback, but he's just a two-QB league option against an Eagles defense that ranks fifth in sacks and is a top-13 unit versus the pass. Expect another ground-heavy approach from Miami. ... The Eagles were improving in run defense before meeting their match last Thursday night against the Seahawks. Marshawn Lynch exposed Philly's embarrassing tackling for 148 rushing yards, a personal high since Lynch's rookie season in 2007. Reggie Bush remains the Dolphins' feature back and has a favorable Week 14 matchup. Daniel Thomas is still just a change-of-pace runner. ... Locked in as a WR2, Brandon Marshall is the No. 17 fantasy receiver in both standard leagues and PPR. Eagles LCB Asante Samuel plays almost strictly "off" coverage, which Marshall can eat alive, and RCB Nnamdi Asomugha (knee, concussion) won't be 100 percent if he's active for the game. This is a very strong matchup for Marshall. ... Anthony Fasano is the No. 7 overall fantasy tight end over the past five weeks, in large part because he scored a pair of touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 9. Fasano has four TDs on the season and is averaging under 30 yards a game. He's a desperation fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Dolphins 20

New Orleans @ Tennessee

Chris Johnson's on-field performance is back on track, so the only factor that might deter him Sunday would be a big lead for the Saints, forcing the Titans into pass-heavy comeback mode. Tennessee will try to prevent that by force feeding Johnson to keep Drew Brees off the field. The matchup is working in Johnson's favor, as New Orleans allows 4.95 yards per carry. Effectively turning his season around just in time for fantasy playoffs, C.J. has 561 yards and three TDs on his last 101 carries (5.55 YPC). He had one score and 291 yards on his initial 105 attempts (2.77 YPC). ... Damian Williams is worth a WR3 look because he leads the Titans in targets over the past five games and will face off mostly with Saints RCB Patrick Robinson on Sunday. Nate Washington gets the tougher draw versus LCB Jabari Greer. My money would be on Williams leading Tennessee in Week 14 receiving. Washington is a weak WR3 gamble. ... Jared Cook set season lows in targets (1) and snaps (21) in Week 13 and is off the standard-league radar at this point. ... Perhaps a surprise shootout could buoy Matt Hasselbeck in a two-quarterback league, but he is averaging a pathetic 178 yards per game since Tennessee's Week 6 bye and has been held to 160 yards or fewer in three straight games. The Titans would be better off taking their chances with rookie Jake Locker, and you're better off leaving Hasselbeck off your fantasy roster.

I could give you stats and scouting reports that might make the Titans' pass defense look like a tough matchup, but they can be thrown out the window for the hottest quarterback south of Green Bay. Drew Brees has a 17:3 TD-to-INT ratio with an 18th touchdown on a rushing score over his past six games. He's eclipsed 300 yards in 9-of-12 weeks and is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback. ... Marques Colston is still squarely in the WR2 realm as the top wideout in the NFL's top-ranked passing offense, but Colston has a difficult matchup. Titans RCB Cortland Finnegan covers the slot when opponents use three- and four-wide sets, and Colston will face off with him frequently both inside and out. At 5'10/188, Finnegan has struggled with big receivers in the past (e.g. Andre Johnson), but is playing at an All-Pro level this season. Fantasy owners filthy rich at receiver can use these facts to break lineup ties. ... Jimmy Graham is the safest bet to lead New Orleans in receiving against the Titans. Playing musical chairs at safety, Tennessee has permitted the fifth most yards and fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Graham is set up for a monster day.

Robert Meachem has consistently played a significant amount of snaps this season and is a 67% player on the year. His targets and production have been another story. While he a plus matchup with Titans LCB Jason McCourty (concussion) in danger of missing this game, Meachem is a high-upside, high-risk WR3. He is a better bet than Devery Henderson and quite arguably Lance Moore, who sees less field time than Meachem and offers inferior big-play ability. Meachem is coming off a 3-119-1 line. Moore had 2-23-1 against Detroit. ... Mark Ingram's case of turf toe is not believed to be severe, but the Saints held him out of practice all week and will lean on their impressive backfield depth in Nashville. Here was New Orleans' backfield touches-yardage-touchdown distribution during Ingram's two missed games earlier this season: Pierre Thomas 23-125-2, Darren Sproles 21-175-1, Chris Ivory 21-85-0. ... Little else changes in the three-headed monster when Ivory replaces Ingram as the short-yardage/power back. Sproles and Thomas both stay heavily involved and will be worthwhile flex options against Tennessee's No. 21 run defense.

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Titans 17

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville

LeGarrette Blount's Week 13 clunker would have been predictable if we knew going in that the Panthers would blow out the Bucs. Tampa coaches refuse to use Blount in passing situations, and he wound up playing only 26-of-57 snaps (45.6%) as the Bucs fell behind 14-0 early. If you believe the Jaguars will win a Week 14 blowout, sit LeGarrette Blount. Injury-ruined Jacksonville certainly doesn't present an imposing run-defense matchup. Over the last three games, opposing backs have touched up the Jags for 348 yards and four touchdowns on 71 carries (4.90 YPC). ... Overcoming musical chairs at quarterback, Mike Williams has turned around his season with at least 80 yards in three consecutive games. The key stat: no dropped passes. If you watched last Monday night's Chargers-Jaguars game, you know Jacksonville's secondary is incredibly vulnerable after losing three of its top four corners to injured reserve, plus FS Dwight Lowery (shoulder). Williams has played well enough recently to "earn" a WR3 start in a plus matchup.

Here is Tampa Bay's target distribution during Williams' three-game hot run: Williams 31, Kellen Winslow 23, Arrelious Benn 15, Preston Parker 8, Dezmon Briscoe 5. ... Winslow's knees are shot after six surgeries, and he no longer possesses legit playmaking ability. The matchup is still good enough that Winslow isn't a terrible fallback option for Fred Davis owners. No team in the league has allowed more receptions to tight ends than Jacksonville. ... Benn, Briscoe, and Parker don't get the ball enough for fantasy reliability. ... Josh Johnson connected on pretty deep throws to Williams (42 yards), Benn (38), and Briscoe (23-yard TD) against the Panthers, showing that all is not lost for the skill players around him when Johnson plays. Josh Freeman (shoulder) is expected to start against the Jaguars, but Johnson's performance was confidence-instilling if Tampa Bay's starter is unable to make it through the game. Freeman has been a QB2 all season, and there's little to reason believe that will change Sunday despite the collapsing opponent.

You already know, but Tampa's defense is getting destroyed on the ground. Over their last six games, the Bucs have been stampeded for 1,103 yards and 12 touchdowns on 202 carries (5.46 YPC). Six games, and that'd be a nice full season for one running back. Expect another decidedly run-heavy game plan from interim coach Mel Tucker, whose goal is to win games and earn the Jags' full-time head coaching job rather than play out the string. Feeding Maurice Jones-Drew gives Tucker his best chance. As the No. 4 fantasy back through 12 games, MJD is a shoo-in top-five runner in Week 14. ... We've seen the "upside" of Jacksonville's wide receivers and tight ends, and it isn't pretty. Blaine Gabbert had his best game of the season last Monday night, but Jones-Drew was the only player on the roster to clear 30 receiving yards. Marcedes Lewis is now dealing with an ankle injury, and wideouts Mike Thomas, Jarett Dillard, and Cecil Shorts form the laughingstock unit of the league. MJD is the only start-able Jaguar during the fantasy playoffs.

Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Jaguars 17

New England @ Washington

Fred Davis' season-ending suspension leaves fantasy owners in a bind because the Redskins don't have a pass-catching replacement on their roster. Logan Paulsen (one career touchdown at UCLA) is a blocking specialist, and Mike Sellers is an ex-fullback. Tight ends won't be a big part of Washington's offense in the last four games. ... The obvious beneficiary of Davis' loss projects to be Santana Moss, who shouldn't struggle to lead the Skins in targets down the stretch. Moss sees frequent action in the slot, running over-the-middle routes where Davis did much of his damage. The Patriots have had trouble slowing slot receivers (see Jason Avant 8-110-1, Davone Bess 5-92, Victor Cruz 6-91, David Nelson 6-84) all season. Moss is a rock-solid WR3 for the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Pats (No. 32 pass defense), Giants (No. 29), and Vikings (26) to finish up. ... New England got top corner Devin McCourty back from a shoulder injury in Week 13, and McCourty will match up with Jabar Gaffney for the majority of this game. Gaffney may be slightly more productive with Davis out of the lineup, but he's a significantly worse bet than Moss.

At the same time, LT Trent Williams' four-game ban will make life tougher on Rex Grossman. Rex has already turned the ball over seven times in the last month, and Williams would've spent this game blocking top Patriots pass rusher Andre Carter (nine sacks). The Skins have resorted to an in-practice competition between veteran Seahawks castoff Sean Locklear and undrafted rookie Willie Smith. Grossman may simply not have a clean enough pocket to capitalize on what could have been a favorable pass-defense matchup. He's a two-QB league option only. You don’t want to pin your fantasy playoff hopes on Rex Grossman, anyway. ... Roy Helu was the Redskins' offensive centerpiece in Week 13 before the game got a bit out of hand in the second half. Helu touched the football 10 times on Washington's initial 14 offensive snaps, picking up 68 yards and a touchdown. Neither Evan Royster nor Ryan Torain received a single carry. This game could get out of hand as well if the Patriots pour on points as they normally do, but Helu can compensate in fantasy leagues because he's an excellent check-down target. While New England does have a top-ten run defense, Helu is a must-start because he's a safe bet for 20 touches.

Washington is playing top-ten pass defense, but it hardly matters for New England's matchup-proof passing attack. Tom Brady has faced top-ten pass defenses in four games this year, going a combined 105-of-147 (71.4%) for 1,271 yards (8.65 YPA) with a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio. It can't hurt Brady's chances of a big game that Skins SS LaRon Landry (groin) will not play. ... Wes Welker is on a vicious tear with 19 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. He's too quick for Redskins oversized slot CB Kevin Barnes to handle. ... Landry vs. Rob Gronkowski might have been an intriguing one-on-one matchup in this game, but it won't happen because of Landry's injury. Gronkowski is the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end and can't be stopped. ... Deion Branch is a hit-or-miss fantasy option with only one game over 60 yards in the past six weeks. As New England's lone viable outside receiver, Branch is more likely to be affected by the Redskins' solid cornerback play than Gronkowski or Welker. Feel free to sit Branch for higher-upside bets.

No Patriots running back exceeded eight carries in Week 13 as Bill Belichick went experimental against the winless Colts. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the only viable fantasy play in New England's backfield, but carries risk due to the unpredictable usage. Rookie Stevan Ridley led the group in touches last week. Law Firm had the lone touchdown. Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead were sprinkled in, and Shane Vereen was inactive due either to a hamstring injury or the fact that he simply wasn't in the game plan. ... It's just a matter of time before Aaron Hernandez resumes scoring touchdowns. He has 13 catches in his last two games and was targeted on a goal-line play at the end of the second quarter last week. The week before, Hernandez caught a 13-yard pass to get down to the Eagles' 15-yard line and had another first-quarter red-zone target. Hernandez is no Gronk, but he's definitely an every-week fantasy starter. The TDs will come.

Score Prediction: Patriots 33, Redskins 17

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game-watchers know Michael Turner's on-field play has been lackluster since midseason, and box scores are catching up. Turner has one touchdown in his last four games and 63 yards on his last 26 carries (2.42 YPC), showing a noticeable tendency to wear down in second halves of games. The matchup, of course, couldn't be better in Week 14 against a Panthers team that lost both starting defensive tackles (Terrell McClain -- MCL, Sione Fua -- hamstring) to injured reserve this week. The NFL's No. 27 run defense will rotate in 2010 undrafted free agent Andre Neblett and 2011 seventh-rounder Frank Kearse. Turner may not capitalize to the extent he could have were he still playing at a high level, but this is the most favorable matchup he'll get the rest of the way. ... Continuing to defy age, Tony Gonzalez is the No. 3 fantasy tight end behind only Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Matchups don't matter for Gonzo. He's an every-week starter.

Julio Jones was finger tips away from a mammoth Week 13 game, skying for a would-be score over Texans CB Jason Allen only to land just out of bounds, and dropping what could have been the game-tying touchdown on the final play. His hamstrings now healthy, Jones again has a more favorable matchup than Roddy White. Whereas White figures to deal with Panthers top CB Chris Gamble for the majority of Sunday's snaps, Jones will square off against burnable RCB Captain Munnerlyn. Jones was inactive for Atlanta's early-season meeting with Carolina, and Gamble held White to 21 yards on two catches. This isn't to say White should be benched in fantasy leagues, but the smart money says Jones will out-produce him in Week 14. ... After a four-week stretch that saw him prey on weak pass defenses, Matt Ryan returned to Earth with a pair of picks, one touchdown, and 267 yards at Houston last week. Keep in mind that the Falcons will play outdoors Sunday for the first time since Week 4. Ryan isn't a terrible bet for a big game with his receiver corps back healthy, but here's guessing you've made the fantasy playoffs with a superior starter.

I like the over on Vegas' 47-point projection for Falcons-Panthers because I don't think either defense can stop either offense. Cam Newton is a one-man wrecking machine and could have pushed for Michael Vick's single-game record of 50 fantasy points had Carolina not taken the pedal off the gas during the second half of last week's termination of the Bucs. ... The Panthers are winning games recently with the rushing attack, which will inevitably open up passing lanes for slumping Steve Smith. The Falcons are again without top CB Brent Grimes (knee), and last week served up 97 yards in less than three quarters to Andre Johnson with Grimes out of the lineup. This week sets up as well as it possibly could for a Smith rebound game. I'd think of Smith as a top-five receiver play versus Atlanta. ... Greg Olsen has battled turf toe and knee injuries since the first month of the season, perhaps contributing to his sharp drop-off in production. He's exceeded 50 yards once in the last eight weeks. The Falcons have not been particularly generous to tight ends in fantasy, so it's reasonable to consider sitting Olsen if you own a viable alternative.

The Panthers resumed starting Legedu Naanee (2-38-1) over Brandon LaFell (3-64) in Week 13, although LaFell played more snaps. LaFell is the better fantasy option of the two, but remains a rotational player and would need a sustained stretch of respectable production in order to be a "trustworthy" fantasy play. If you're into trying to anticipate those things as opposed to wait for them to happen, the Falcons rank 21st against the pass and are at less than full strength in the back end. ... Over the last three games, Jonathan Stewart has 47 touches to DeAngelo Williams' 37. Neither has exceeded 16 touches in any week this season, but Stewart gets more receptions and therefore sees increased in-space opportunities, where he has a better shot to hit big gains. D-Will is a low-end, low-ceiling flex. J-Stew at least offers upside in a flex spot, and it's worth noting that he racked up 74 yards and a score against Atlanta's top-three run defense in Week 6.

Score Prediction: Panthers 30, Falcons 24

Houston @ Cincinnati

A Bengals defense that opened the year stuffing the run is springing leaks. Over the past month, Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman, Ray Rice, and Peyton Hillis -- the latter at less than 100% -- have combined to tag Cincy for 349 yards and six touchdowns on 86 carries (4.06 YPC). The per-play average isn't exciting, but rushers are scoring on the Bengals because they've been easy to move the ball against since losing CB Leon Hall. Offenses are getting into scoring position, and each of the aforementioned rushing touchdowns has occurred inside the ten-yard line. With nine TDs in his last six games, Arian Foster is as safe a bet for weekly scores as any back in football. Foster also ranks third in receiving yards among tailbacks, finding ways to compensate even in weeks where his yards-per-carry average is low. ... The 7-5 Bengals should stay competitive enough Sunday to prevent Ben Tate from proving a worthwhile flex start. Since Foster returned from his early-season hamstring injury in Week 4, Tate has averaged 7.5 carries for 37.5 yards with no touchdowns in games the Texans lose or win by fewer than 18 points (four-game sample). When Houston wins by 18 or more (three-game sample), Tate has averaged over 13 carries for 94 yards with two touchdowns. Ben Tate needs blowout victories for fantasy-viable production.

T.J. Yates is a poised, aggressive young passer. He is comfortable in the pocket and willing to take shots downfield. Yates can keep Houston's offense afloat, but the team's run-heavy mindset prevents his pass catchers from posting consistent production. ... Here is Yates' target distribution since replacing Matt Leinart in the second quarter of Week 12: Andre Johnson 12, Owen Daniels 11, Foster 6, Jacoby Jones 4, Kevin Walter 4. ... With Johnson (hamstring) out 1-2 weeks, Jones will take over at split end with Kevin Walter at flanker. Jones averaged 48 yards with two scores in Johnson's six missed games earlier this season. Walter had one touchdown and a 41.5-yard average. Both are WR3 rolls of the dice, but Jones has a superior matchup against Bengals RCB Pacman Jones. Walter will spend most of the day in LCB Nate Clements' coverage. Clements has been Cincinnati's top cornerback in Hall's absence. ... Daniels is probably the favorite for targets in Houston now, but this is a prohibitive matchup. The Bengals are allowing under 50 yards per game to tight ends, and only three players at the position have scored on Cincinnati all season.

Cedric Benson has managed a pedestrian 425 yards on his last 119 carries (3.57 YPC). He is a low-end RB2 against the Texans' fourth-ranked run defense. Fellow straight-line power backs Michael Turner (14-44-0) and LeGarrette Blount (10-34-0) will attest to the fact that Houston isn't easily run on. ... A.J. Green has burned Joe Haden and Ike Taylor for 212 total yards and a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. He has "earned" a WR2 start against Texans CB Johnathan Joseph. ... Jerome Simpson has a more favorable matchup on paper than Green, but is not fantasy playoffs material. He's been held to 15 receiving yards or fewer in three of his last five games and did not catch a pass in Week 13. ... The Texans pose a prohibitive matchup for Jermaine Gresham. Houston has allowed the third fewest receptions in the league to tight ends, and the fourth fewest yards. Only two tight ends have scored on the Texans this season. ... This game sets up poorly for Andy Dalton, as well. Houston ranks third against the pass and Dalton has a 3:4 TD-to-turnover ratio over his last three games. December weather also threatens to be a factor in Cincinnati. This projects as a low-scoring affair with two top-six defenses doing battle.

Score Prediction: Texans 20, Bengals 13

4:05PM ET Games

Chicago @ Denver

Proving that matchups don't matter, Tim Tebow has posted top-ten QB stats against both premier run defenses (Vikings, Dolphins) and highly-ranked pass defenses (Jets, Chargers). Tebow has played extensively in eight games this year. As a passer alone, his 16-game pace would include a 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio, plus six more rushing touchdowns. The Broncos haven't quite unleashed Tebow and allowed him to play "street ball" -- attacking opponents with both the run and pass in the same game from the shotgun -- but it's coming. A Week 15 matchup with the Patriots may be the target date, so look for Denver's coaching staff to tinker with it versus Chicago. Tebow has maintained a "high floor" with considerably more fantasy upside than we've witnessed so far.

Demaryius Thomas' 4-144-2 stat line in Week 13 was more an indication of his enormous long-range potential than an immediate sign of things to come. As Eric Decker's owners know by now, inconsistency is inevitable for receivers in the NFL's most run-heavy offense. Decker and Thomas both offer plenty of weekly fantasy "ceiling," particularly with Eddie Royal (neck) not expected to play. They're also major gambles. Until the Broncos remove Tebow's shackles, Decker and Thomas may alternate week-to-week production. As to who will out-produce whom against Chicago, your guess is as good as mine. ... Willis McGahee was given Thursday and Friday's practices off in order to ensure that the soreness in his knee would subside as much as possible before Sunday's game. The Bears' No. 8 run-defense ranking looks tough on paper, but they're permitting 4.45 yards a carry. Since Tebow replaced Kyle Orton at halftime of Week 5, McGahee has 553 yards and three touchdowns on 104 rushing attempts (5.32 YPC). McGahee managed 333 yards and one score on 78 early-season carries (4.27 average) with Orton under center.

After Caleb Hanie's three-pick Week 13 game, Bears OC Mike Martz has vowed to increase his offensive tempo and play more aggressively, rather than scale things back to give Hanie more comfort. It's another factor working in Tebow's favor, because the Broncos are a good bet to win the time-of-possession battle Sunday. Hanie has been turnover prone in the preseason and threw two interceptions in two quarters of action during last year's NFC title game. This is becoming a trend. Start the Broncos' defense and avoid all Bears pass catchers. ... Marion Barber has been ignored in Chicago's passing game this season and will essentially be a homeless man's version of LeGarrette Blount going forward. Kahlil Bell will replace Barber on the field when Chicago falls behind. Barber stands to receive 16-22 carries against Denver's No. 20 run defense, assuming the Bears stay competitive. Bell will be the passing-down back and preferred option on screens. This offense probably isn't going anywhere on Sunday, so Barber is just a flex option in non-PPR leagues. Bell would need a pass-heavy comeback scenario to prove a worthwhile fantasy start.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Bears 13

San Francisco @ Arizona

Granted A.J. Feeley was quarterbacking the offense, but the 49ers didn't allow the Rams to cross the 38-yard line on a single possession during last week's 26-0 shutout victory. San Francisco is playing the toughest defense in football, erasing rushing attacks and forcing opponents to resort to the pass. No team in the league is allowing fewer points per game (13.4). The Cardinals' offense has struggled mightily to generate points and yards when Beanie Wells has been a non-factor this season, and precedent says that will remain the case on Sunday. Battling hamstring, knee, and thumb ailments, Wells is a low-end RB2 against the 49ers. He'll probably need a goal-line score to be profitable, and San Francisco hasn't given up a rushing touchdown all year. If you are looking for a desperation tiebreaker, perhaps the fact that All-Pro ILB Patrick Willis will miss the game with a knee injury could tilt you toward Wells. But he's not a strong fantasy play regardless. ... Kevin Kolb's return from foot and toe injuries did nothing to spring Larry Fitzgerald in Week 13, but it's difficult to imagine benching wide receivers who are on pace for over 1,250 yards and eight touchdowns. ... Andre Roberts caught all six of his Week 13 targets for a game-high 111 yards. It was the second game over 55 yards of Roberts' career. The pendulum could just as easily swing back toward Early Doucet this week, leaving neither as a viable starter during the fantasy playoffs.

Last week, Dez Bryant toasted Patrick Peterson for 86 yards and a TD on eight receptions in a design similar to how Michael Crabtree dropped his 7-120 line on Peterson in Week 11. Peterson doesn't get a quick break on the ball in "off" coverage, and for some reason the Cards continue to let him give a cushion. This is a matchup ripe for the picking for Crabtree, especially in PPR. ... Vernon Davis is one of the league's most physically gifted tight ends, but he's underwhelmed in the passing game due to increased blocking. The tight end position has thinned out around the league as the season has gone on, so Davis has remained a top-ten weekly play. ... Frank Gore racked up 88 yards on 24 carries against Arizona in Week 11, but it's fair to wonder if he's slowing down at the wrong time of the year. Gore has managed 203 yards and no touchdowns on his last 69 rushing attempts (2.94 YPC). ... Braylon Edwards' return may add an explosive element to San Francisco's offense, as long as Edwards doesn't perform as poorly he did before the knee and shoulder injuries. Alex Smith will be a strong two-QB league play when we see evidence of that on the field.

Score Prediction: 49ers 17, Cardinals 10

4:15PM ET Games

Buffalo @ San Diego

The Chargers' offense hit on all cylinders in last Monday's 38-14 floor-wiping of Jacksonville, and they have a matchup to stay hot versus Buffalo's defense, a unit weaker than its No. 22 overall ranking indicates. Over the last five games, opponents have licked the Bills for 708 rushing yards and six rushing scores, including last week's 31-carry, 187-yard bulldozing by Tennessee. Ryan Mathews has 391 yards on his last 70 carries (5.59 YPC) and is pushing RB1 status now that he's healthy. ... With Mathews all the way back to 100%, Mike Tolbert received just six touches in Week 13. Tolbert carries very little value as a change-of-pace back, needing red-zone touchdowns to save his fantasy games. ... Vincent Brown has dropped off the standard-league fantasy radar with Malcom Floyd returning from his own injury. The promising if inconsistent rookie is now a clear-cut third receiver. According to Pro Football Focus, Brown played 5-of-58 snaps in Week 13.

Back home in sunny San Diego, the Chargers' passing game is set up for success. Floyd, Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson turned in a full practice week for the first time since early in the year, and they're all coming off productive Week 13s. Gates is the No. 5 fantasy tight end in points per game, while V-Jax is the No. 9 receiver. They should both be locked into lineups. ... After sitting out Weeks 9-12 with a strained hip amongst other ailments, Floyd returned as a full-time player against the Jags. He played 43-of-58 snaps (74.1%), a rate that will rise going forward. In this game, Floyd will spend the majority of the day in Bills RCB Drayton Florence's coverage. It's a favorable matchup for WR3 usage, and Floyd knows Florence well from his 2003-2007 stint with San Diego. ... Over the last five weeks, only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Eli Manning have scored more fantasy points among quarterbacks than Philip Rivers. Rivers' on-field play hasn't necessarily turned around, but he's filling stat sheets and should continue to do so Sunday.

C.J. Spiller has a good enough matchup to be considered a rock-solid flex against the Bolts' No. 26 run defense, but he's not shedding the "boom-or-bust back" label anytime soon. In Week 13 against Tennessee, 11 of Spiller's 17 touches went for three yards or fewer with four carries of zero or negative yardage. He did break off gains of 12, 25, and 30 yards, the latter for a score, and had a would-be 41-yard touchdown run called back by penalty in the first quarter. Tashard Choice had six touches in the change-of-pace role off the bench. Johnny White didn't get the rock. ... The Chargers' pass defense isn't nearly as effective as its No. 6 ranking suggests, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has just one multi-touchdown game in his last five and has cleared 300 passing yards once all season. Fitzpatrick has backup-caliber talent and is not on the standard-league radar.

Despite Fitzpatrick's struggles, Stevie Johnson has scored in back-to-back games while being featured in Buffalo's offense. Here is the Bills' target distribution since their Week 7 bye: Johnson 49, David Nelson 37, Scott Chandler 25, Brad Smith 24, Spiller 16, Naaman Roosevelt 9. Johnson plays all over the formation and will see plenty of Chargers RCB Antoine Cason and LCB Quentin Jammer, both of whom are struggling. It's a plus matchup in a sneaky shootout game. ... Chandler (ankle) is not expected to play, improving Nelson's outlook because he'll have little competition for targets over the middle in the slot. Nelson is always a fair bet for touchdowns. ... Smith is starting over Roosevelt opposite Johnson. Smith won't sustain his 17 targets over the past two games, but he is lining up across from Leodis McKelvin on kickoffs and is a viable return-yardage league play.

Score Prediction: Chargers 34, Bills 20

Oakland @ Green Bay

I'm running out of good things to say about Aaron Rodgers. He's the No. 1 fantasy quarterback and should be in your lineup against Oakland's No. 17 pass defense. ... Greg Jennings plays the majority of his snaps in the slot and at split end, where he aligns to the right side of the offensive formation. He will not have to deal much with Raiders LCB Stanford Routt in this game. ... Jordy Nelson also moves around enough that Routt's spotty coverage shouldn't stand in the way of another monster day. Jennings is the No. 5 fantasy wideout; Nelson is No. 7. ... Here is Rodgers' target distribution since the Packers' Week 8 bye: Jennings 38, Jermichael Finley 30, Nelson 28, Donald Driver 17, Randall Cobb 9, James Jones 9. ... Finley has six drops over that span, but the bottom line is that he's the second-most heavily targeted pass catcher in the NFL's No. 3 passing offense. Owners with patience to stick with Finley through bumps in the road will reap the reward during difference-making fantasy games like last week (6-87-1). Finley is the No. 6 fantasy tight end, behind Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Fred Davis.

As his average of just over two targets per game suggests, Jones is an unreliable fantasy option competing for balls with Driver and Cobb at the end of the totem pole. Jones possesses big-play ability, and many NFL teams blew their chance to sign him affordably this offseason, but he's a WR4 with goose egg potential. Jones was not targeted in Week 13. ... The Packers are expected to hold James Starks (ankle) out against the Raiders, leaving backfield chores to be split amongst washed-up Ryan Grant, undrafted rookie Brandon Saine, and designated goal-line vulture John Kuhn. Grant is arguably worse than Thomas Jones at this point, managing 166 yards and no touchdowns on his last 67 carries (2.48 YPC). Saine is a desperation option, but he will play in the passing game more than Grant and probably receive close to, if not as many touches. Kuhn is the best bet for touchdowns in Green Bay's backfield, as has been the case for most of the year.

The best way to "contain" Aaron Rodgers is to keep him off the field, and Green Bay has flashed susceptibility to the run by surrendering 4.89 yards per carry on the season. While the possibility of a large early deficit is realistic for the Raiders, they'll likely do their best to avoid one by trying to get Michael Bush going early. If they do fall behind, Bush can stay relevant because he's a three-down back who plays in all passing situations. Shake off Bush's disappointing Week 13 game and use him on Sunday. Hue Jackson certainly plans to. ... I know that the Packers are low in the NFL’s pass defense ranking, particularly in terms of yardage allowed. I also know that Carson Palmer has been completely ineffective without Denarius Moore (ankle) and Jacoby Ford (foot). It is hard to imagine counting on Palmer in a standard league until Moore and Ford return to the lineup. … Chaz Schilens and Darrius Heyward-Bey will start at flanker and split end, respectively, if Moore and Ford are out again. A high pass attempt total is probable for Palmer, giving DHB and Schilens some WR3 appeal for fantasy owners willing to stretch.

Score Prediction: Packers 33, Raiders 17

Sunday Night Football

NY Giants @ Dallas

Dallas gets back lead blocker Tony Fiammetta from a three-game absence due to an inner ear infection this week, and that's good news for DeMarco Murray. In Murray's initial four games as the Cowboys' feature back with Fiammetta in the lineup, the rookie racked up 601 yards and two touchdowns on 75 carries (8.01 YPC). In three games without Fiammetta since, Murray has 198 yards and no scores on 59 carries (3.36 YPC). In Week 13, the Cowboys started Murray but mixed in Felix Jones for an early possession and the two rotated the rest of the way. Jones out-produced Murray, though not by much. The good news for Murray is that he should again have the opportunity to establish the hot hand early, and Fiammetta's return improves his chances. The Giants also rank 23rd against the run, so this is a favorable matchup. ... I've kept a running tally of New York's deficiencies in tight-end coverage, and they resurfaced in last week's loss to Green Bay. Over their last five games, the G-Men have allowed six touchdowns and 41 catches for 496 yards to tight ends. It's good for an average weekly line of over 8-99-1. Jason Witten is up next.

At full strength, the Cowboys' passing attack is explosive enough to keep pace with the NFL's top offenses. Consider last week's 13-point game at Arizona a mirage. Miles Austin practiced all week and will resume his flanker-slot role, rendering Laurent Robinson all but a non-factor in fantasy. Robinson's shoulder injury is the nail in the coffin for his Week 14 start-ability. ... Dallas took all precautions possible with Austin's pulled hamstring because Robinson had been so productive playing in his place. Austin immediately regains WR2 value. ... In his last six matchups with the Giants, Tony Romo has completed 114-of-173 passes (65.9%) for 1,373 yards (7.94 YPA) with a 14:5 TD-to-INT ratio and two more rushing scores. The Giants rank 29th against the pass this year and will not have enforcer SS Kenny Phillips (knee) for Sunday night’s game. ... Giants-Cowboys has a 49-point over/under, the second highest of Week 14. Vegas clearly believes this game has shootout potential beneath the JerryWorld Dome. Austin's return won't necessarily make Dez Bryant a less desirable fantasy play. In fact, it may decrease the defensive attention Bryant faces. He's arguably the best bet for touchdowns on Dallas' roster Sunday night.

Brandon Jacobs had more Week 13 box-score production than Ahmad Bradshaw, but Bradshaw returned from his cracked foot as the Giants' lead back. Bradshaw started and played 32 snaps to Jacobs' 14, also receiving five more touches. While Jacobs figures to remain the favorite for goal-line carries, the timeshare will lean more and more in Bradshaw's favor as he continues to prove his health to the Giants' medical and coaching staffs. If you're looking to invest in New York's backfield against Dallas' No. 9 run defense in Week 14, Bradshaw would be your best bet in a flex spot. Jacobs is an option in TD-heavy leagues only. ... Eli Manning has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games and ranks sixth overall in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford. Romo has a better Week 14 matchup than Manning and would be a superior option if you're deciding between the two, but Eli has been locked in as a top-seven weekly option for several months now.

Mario Manningham is expected to return from his knee injury against the Cowboys, although it's old news that he's been passed by Victor Cruz as a top-two option in New York's passing game. Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are borderline WR1s. Manningham won't be worth fantasy consideration until he proves his health on the field and that he can still be a productive player in what will likely be a reduced role. His knee was "weak and not stable" as recently as two weeks ago. ... While Manningham's return shouldn't affect Cruz and Nicks much, it will make TE Jake Ballard and fourth receiver Ramses Barden bit players in New York's offense. Ballard can go back to help-blocking DeMarcus Ware. Barden will probably play no more than a dozen snaps Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 24

Monday Night Football

St. Louis @ Seattle

This sorry excuse for a prime-time game contains just one surefire fantasy starter. Marshawn Lynch is breaking tackles at a prolific rate, and his workloads are enormous. Over the past five weeks, Lynch leads the NFL with 128 carries. Michael Bush is second with 113 and DeMarco Murray's 101 are a distant third. No running back has scored more fantasy points than Lynch during that span. Neither of these teams is likely to score many points on Monday, but Lynch is easily the best bet for touchdowns on either side. The Rams still rank dead last in run defense, and are permitting 4.99 yards a carry. ... Behind Lynch, the only Seahawks skill player worth a fantasy look is Golden Tate. Tate started in a three-receiver set last Thursday, playing 51-of-59 snaps and leading Seattle in targets and receiving. Big Mike Williams, Doug Baldwin, and Ben Obomanu were rotating part-timers against the Eagles. Williams played the most behind Tate.

In three career matchups with Pete Carroll's Seahawks, Steven Jackson has managed 157 yards on 48 carries (3.27 YPC). He's yet to score a touchdown against Carroll's team. Also appearing to wear down late this season, Jackson has 124 yards on his last 42 carries (2.95 YPC) and no TDs since Week 8. Jackson is an undesirable option for fantasy playoff teams. ... Tom Brandstater will make his first career start as A.J. Feeley (thumb fracture) and Sam Bradford (high ankle sprain) nurse injuries. We have little idea of what to expect from Brandstater on the basis that he's never attempted a regular season pass, but he is at least familiar with OC Josh McDaniels' offense after being drafted by McD in Denver. Glass-half full Brandon Lloyd owners can point to the fact that Brandstater finished the 2010 preseason with a respectable 6.8 YPA and promising 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio in Indianapolis. Fantasy leaguers interested in Seattle's fantasy defense can note that Brandstater is on his fifth NFL team in three years. McDaniels' Broncos were one of the teams that cut Brandstater. The Colts also waived him in favor of Curtis Painter last September.