Posted!

Join the Nation's Conversation

Time to make a move in stolen bases

Joe Hoffer, USA TODAY Sports
4:14 p.m. EDT July 3, 2013

Indians outfielder Michael Bourn has missed time with injuries this year and only has 11 stolen bases, but he's totaled at least 40 in each of the past five seasons.(Photo: David Richard, USA TODAY Sports)

Story Highlights

Michael Bourn only has 11 steals so far, but he's swiped at least 40 each of the past five seasons

Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is a sneaky source of steals from an unlikely position

Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon could make an impact down the stretch when they're called up

While stolen-base attempts are on pace for the lowest since 1971, fantasy owners can make a major advance in the standings with a few astute moves.

Let's start with the current steals leaders — Jacoby Ellsbury in the American League and Everth Cabrera in the National League. Both are at the top of the leaderboard thanks to three fundamental characteristics:

They have a track record. Ellsbury and Cabrera have compiled high stolen-base totals throughout their careers. Ellsbury had 41 steals in 2006 and 2007 in the minors and led the AL in 2008 and 2009. Cabrera had 73 swipes in ClassA in 2008 and led the NL with 44 in 2012.

They play for an aggressive manager. John Farrell (Boston Red Sox) and Bud Black (San Diego Padres) have their teams in the top five in steal attempts. The willingness to turn players loose on the bases has resulted in a rate of 9.5 at-bats per steal attempt (AB/SBA) for Ellsbury and 7.2 AB/SBA for Cabrera. Both are getting the chance to deliver steals in bunches.

They are successful. For his career, Ellsbury has an 83% success rate; Cabrera has flashed a similar 82% career mark. Not only are they getting chances to run, Ellsbury and Cabrera also are making the most of their opportunities.

With these three characteristics in hand, let's take a look at three pools of players that fit these profiles. Consider this your cheat sheet for those midseason trade acquisitions:

Solid veterans

B.J. Upton, Atlanta Braves. Few would argue that Upton is one of this season's biggest disappointments, batting .177 with eight home runs, 19 RBI and seven steals in 11 attempts. Seemingly in the prime of his career, we need only remember his stolen-base totals over the last five seasons: 31, 36, 42, 42, 44. Upton, 28, has a 77% career success rate, and as his batting average and on-base percentage normalize in the second half, upside in steals will come with it.

Shane Victorino, Red Sox. At 32 and coming off a hamstring injury, Victorino is far from a sure thing. But his 39 stolen bases last year put him in the top 10. He has always been successful (82% success rate) and has the same aggressive manager as Ellsbury.

Michael Bourn, Cleveland Indians. Bourn often is labeled a one-trick pony, but it is hard to argue his stolen-base productivity from 2008 to 2012 (41, 61, 52, 61, 42). Bourn, 30, is 11-for-16 in steal attempts this season, but with a very good career success rate (81%) and manager Terry Francona at the helm (the Indians are third in the majors in steal attempts), Bourn should see an uptick in his pace in the second half.

Rajai Davis, Toronto Blue Jays. It's hard to fly under the radar after a 46-steal season, but that is what Davis is doing. While his playing time has been more of a challenge this year, two things are certain.

First, Davis' 79% success rate illustrates his elite speed. Second, without a starting gig and playing in a smaller market, Davis can be had on the cheap. He is a good bet to deliver 20 steals the rest of the way.

Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks. There have been 17 instances of 10 or more stolen bases by first basemen in the last five years. Goldschmidt, however, is a power play with an 88% success rate in the majors, including 18 steals in 2012.

He's on a similar pace this year (8-for-9 in steal attempts), making him even more valuable in trade talks.

Eric Young Jr., New York Mets. There wasn't much fanfare when the Mets acquired the 28-year-old on June18, but fantasy players should take note. Since joining the Mets, Young has seen consistent opportunity in a weak outfield.

With a 78% success rate over his career, a speed pedigree thanks to his namesake dad and a spot at the top of the lineup, Young has potential. The rest is up to him.

Norichika Aoki, Milwaukee Brewers. Aoki quietly stole 30 bases last season but has gone 9-for-17 this year. Manager Ron Roenicke plays aggressively (second in steal attempts), and with injuries to other players, he needs to. This creates an opportunity for a second-half surge from Aoki.

Nate McLouth, Baltimore Orioles. Manager Buck Showalter encourages his players to be aggressive, and McLouth is no exception. After stealing a total of 23 bases the last three years, he has racked up 24 this season thanks to his 9.8 AB/SBA rate.

With an 86% success rate in the majors, there is no reason to expect him to slow down any time soon.

Leonys Martin, Texas Rangers. With less than 200 at-bats, Martin has not rung up the kind of stats that grab our attention. But with a stolen-base attempt every 12 at-bats and an 86% success rate, things are looking up. Manager Ron Washington ending his center-field platoon bodes well for Martin's steals totals going forward.

Young guns

Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds. Hamilton is struggling with batting average at Class AAA Louisville (.247), but anyone who has stolen 155 bags (as Hamilton did in 2012) and has an 87% success rate in 2013 is going to pile up stolen bases.

Grabbing Hamilton is a speculative play because of manager Dusty Baker's perceived anti-rookie bias, but the payoff could be huge.