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The Hypothetical SuperContest 2016 – Week 3

Oh hey there! Whoa, been a while. Sorry about that. For anyone who took the Under in“How many weeks until Tyler is inconsistent with his gambling column,” congratulations, strong bet. Collect your winnings at the nearest window.

Those picks went 2-3. Not great by any means, but superb when you consider that in my league where I pick every Sunday game against the spread I went an absolutely abysmal 3-12 last week. Most people who make picks on the Internet wouldn’t tell you about a week that garbage. But I, dear reader, am an open book. You accept me for my flaws and my occasional trash picks, and I appreciate you for it.

So we’re back, barely beating the buzzer. Hopefully next week I’ll have my shit together, but God only knows what the next day holds. Here’s this week’s lines. Home team gets the asterisk.

I like my picks this week, meaning this will probably be a rough one. But hey, at least I’m here writing again. The Gambling Gods will surely appreciate my modicum of effort at least a little. Here goes nothing.

Raiders (+1.5) over Titans*

This reads as a sucker bet, and I know the Raiders didn’t look all that great last week in Oakland against a questionable Falcons team. I don’t care. The public is all over the Raiders here, which usually means to zig while others are zagging. I don’t care.

Buccaneers* (-5.5) over Rams

The Rams got a big win over the Seahawks last week, while the Buccos were busy getting absolutely manhandled by the Cardinals, so this line might not make sense to a lot of people. But there’s a lot of positives in this spot for the Bucs from a gambling perspective: West Coast team coming East, hangover game from the Seahawks, Tampa seeking redemption at home after embarrassing themselves this week. I just think the Bucs will want it more.

Bengals* (-3.5) over Broncos

This is Trevor Siemian’s first road game, and it’s against a solid team. From what I’ve seen from him so far, he’s a fine quarterback, but I think your first game on the road is tough for anyone (unless, of course, you’re Carson Wentz; then you can do anything). Speaking of…

Eagles* (+3.5) over Steelers

A post shared by Carson Wentz (@cj_wentz11) on May 29, 2016 at 2:17pm PDT

WENTZ BABY. In the battle of Pennsylvania, I can’t not back my Eagles. Sure, the Steelers are ranked as the top team in the league by multiple power rankings lists, and of course I’m terrified we get absolutely shellacked. But home dogs! The extra half point!

I’ve picked the Birds two straight weeks, and they’ve come through for me both times. Yes, I’m a homer, but I’m going to keep riding this train until it stops cashing in for now.

Bears (+7.5) over Cowboys*

I like riding veteran backup quarterbacks, as my Twitter feed from last Sunday can attest:

In this spot, while he’s no Josh McCown, I am ready to back Brian Hoyer and let him do his thing. Wily vets. Gotta love em.

FiveThirtyHate

So back in Week 1, I introduced you to my nemesis this year in picking: the nerds at FiveThirtyEight with all their “math” and “objectivity” and “not relying on .gifs when making gambling picks.” Each week FiveThirtyEight puts out its “ELO Point Spreads,” which are basically what their little formula thinks the spread shouldbe regardless of what Vegas sets it at. Here, I compare their spreads to those in the SuperContest, and give FiveThirtyEight the five games where their spread is furthest from the actual listed line, which in theory should be their top picks of the week.

In Week 1, FiveThirtyEight went 4-1 and was just one point away from 5-0. Last week, they went 4-1 again, so yeah, this experiment is not starting off so great for me. But I’ll have my revenge. Eventually. Here are their Week 3 ELO spreads, with subsequent picks below:

Patriots* (-1) over TexansBroncos (+3.5) over Bengals*Ravens (PK) over JaguarsBrowns (+9.5) over DolphinsRams (+5.5) over Buccaneers