12/28/2009 @ 9:30AM

China Charts Its Own Path

Satchel Paige was an American baseball legend who played ball from 192666. He was the first player from the Negro Leagues to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. He was one of America’s great winners.

The saddest part about Paige’s success is probably that it took America too long to realize it. The man didn’t play his first game in Major League Baseball until he was 42 years old. American Groupthink isn’t new. It’s always been a part of our culture. We are human. So are the Chinese.

This morning the Chinese are reminding us that: 1) they are still wearing the pants in this relationship; and 2) they aren’t leaving this new game of global financial risk anytime soon. China is heading into 2010 with a full head of political and economic steam. If America and Europe don’t let her into the major league of global finance, China may very well just start up her own.

This morning, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), plus China, Japan and South Korea, have announced that they are moving forward with the Chiang Mai Initiative and forming a $120 billion foreign-currency reserve pool. In a joint statement, the countries said the move was intended to “strengthen the region’s capacity to safeguard against increased risks and challenges in the global economy.” In Mandarin, that means protect against American crashes.

Chiang Mai is a city in northern Thailand that sits strategically on the Ping River. This is where plenty of Asian trading has been done over the last few centuries. This is where Asia’s new economic powers decided to lock arms and play some red rover with Western leaders of Perceived Financial Wisdom.

Like MLB ignoring Satchel Paige, Westerners ignoring the new reality of Asian economic power doesn’t mean it ceases to exist. The Asians have been working on forming their own economic safety nets since the Japanese tried to form the Asian Monetary Fund in 1997. The Chiang Mai Initiative was formed in May 2006. Today is simply a recognition that the proactively prepared have a plan–and they are executing on it.

An analyst at
Bank of America
is revealing to his squadrons of consensus callers this morning that China could see her property bubble “pop.” Hello, McFly–the Chinese property stocks peaked in July of this year and have been popping for three months! Understand that many sell-siders on this side of the pond really don’t know what they dont know.

China’s premier, Wen Jiabao, is very aware of his liabilities. Unlike Bush and Obama, he seems to actually know what he doesn’t know. He and his financial leadership team have been explicitly targeting the property and loan markets for the last 3 months. They are not behaving as willfully blind as we were.

This morning, here’s what Wen told Xinhua, the Chinese News Agency: “Property prices have risen too quickly in some areas and we should use taxes and loan interest rates to stabilize them.”

Unlike the U.S., which keeps interest rates at zero to fuel debt-fueled asset-price speculation, at least China has a plan to both generate savings amongst her citizenry (with a savings rate of return greater than zero) and, at the same time, show some respect for the cost of capital.

On the currency front, Wen said that China will “absolutely not yield” to the Western calls for currency appreciation. He explained that the plan will remain the plan, and that China will move both her currency and interest rate policies whenever she darn well pleases. Sound familiar? It should. That’s what we do.

2010 will be here by the end of this week, and so will China overtaking Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. For a long time Americans and Europeans could see this economic and political juggernaut coming. For a long time some of us chose to ignore the power of their self-directedness.

As America moves the YouTube dials to another populist debate (whether or not we should reinstitute Glass-Steagall-like regulation in her financial markets in 2010), be certain that the Chinese are going to be moving forward at their already decided pace.

After closing up 1.5% overnight, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,188. Despite the S&P 500 closing at a higher YTD high on Christmas Eve, its only up 24.7% for the year. Relative to China’s 75.1% gain, that’s puny. Kind of like how Satchel Paige made 20-year-old men look with a curveball coming from his 45-year old arm.

My immediate term lines of support and resistance for the S&P 500 are now 1,112 and 1,129, respectively.