THE HILL POLL: Democrats have edge on question of extending Bush tax cuts

Voters in 10 battleground congressional districts strongly
back a plan to extend the George W. Bush-era tax cuts only for families earning
less than $250,000 a year, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll.

The survey of likely voters in 10 states found rare
bipartisan support for the position of President Obama and Democratic Party
leaders, who oppose extending the tax cuts for the top income brackets.

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But the poll also exposed a deep partisan divide on the
surface of the tax-cut debate: While a clear majority of voters, 54 percent,
backed extending the Bush tax cuts without qualifications, the support broke
along party lines, with Republicans overwhelmingly in favor and Democrats
strongly opposed.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said they backed an
extension of the tax cuts only for income brackets below the $250,000 mark,
more than twice the percentage of people who said they were opposed.

The support for continuing the so-called middle-class tax
cuts was consistent among Democrats (65 percent), Republicans (64 percent) and
independents (63 percent).

The Bush tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of the
year, have become a political flashpoint in the race for control of Congress.
While Obama and most Democrats want to extend the current rates for
middle-income families and let those for the top earners rise, Republicans have
pushed to extend all the tax cuts, arguing against any tax increase in a
fragile economic recovery. Democrats say extending the tax cuts for the wealthy
would explode the budget deficit by $700 billion over a decade.

The Hill poll, conducted last week by the firm Penn, Schoen
and Berland, found a sharply different political dynamic depending on how the
tax cut question is worded.

Respondents who were asked simply if they favored or opposed
“extending the Bush tax cuts” — without specifying the income bracket — broke
along party lines. Republicans were strongly in favor, by a margin of 82
percent to 10. Independent voters also supported an extension of the tax cuts,
58 percent to 30 percent opposed. By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, however, Democrats
opposed a general extension. Fifty-eight percent of Democrats responded in
opposition, 28 percent favored the extension and 19 percent — nearly one in
five — were undecided.

When the $250,000 threshold was used, the partisan split
disappeared.

The pollsters asked half of the respondents the general
question about the tax cuts and asked the other half the more specific question
of whether they supported an extension only for families earning $250,000 or
below. No voter received both questions.

While the poll suggests that Democrats have voters on their
side, they may have missed their opportunity to take full advantage. Lawmakers
debated holding a vote on extending the middle-class tax cuts before the
election, but opposition from Republicans and disagreement among Democrats led
them to punt the issue until a lame-duck session in November. Republicans
criticized Democrats for leaving town, even as the GOP fought a plan that would
extend some, but not all, of the tax cuts.

Democrats “left many people not knowing what the tax rates
will be next year,” said G. Terry Madonna, a professor of public affairs and
director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll in Pennsylvania.

House and Senate leaders have pledged to address the Bush
tax cuts, including those on capital gains and estates, before the end of the
year.

Led by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, some strategists
urged the party to seize on the tax-cut issue. A poll conducted by Greenberg in
September that tested both the Democratic and Republican messages gave
Democrats a strong advantage. Like The Hill survey, the Greenberg poll found
support for extending the middle-class tax cuts while letting those for top
earners expire.

Top national party leaders, including Obama, have pounded
Republicans on the tax-cut divide, portraying the GOP as the party of the
wealthy while insisting that Democrats represent the interests of the middle
class. But many Democratic candidates have not focused as much on the issue in
their effort to avoid nationalizing their individual campaigns, Madonna said.

“They are running away from Washington,” Madonna said.
“They’re not talking about Washington policy at all.”

Some Democratic candidates have also joined the GOP in
backing at least a temporary extension of all the Bush tax cuts.

The Hill poll found solid bipartisan support for extending
only the middle-class tax cuts throughout the 10 congressional districts. In
each of the districts polled, a clear majority of Republicans favored the
limited extension, with the closest margin coming in New Hampshire’s 2nd
district, where 53 percent of Republicans responded favorably. In two districts
— Tennessee’s 8th and West Virginia’s 1st — a higher percentage of Republicans
than Democrats favored keeping only the middle-class rates in place.