Standings as of 2018-03-06

In the 2018 Season, we have 50 technical upsets in 203 ranked matches (75.31% success rate) across 31 events.

The Gonzalez System is a computer ranking model similar to Elo and is a rating exchange system based on research performed by World Rugby. It has been adapted by the NCDA to the demands of College Dodgeball, but can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate accurate data. It has been used to help determine seeds for the Nationals bracket since Nationals 2014, and was used exclusively for the Nationals 2017 bracket.

Technical Upset Spotlight

A technical upset in the Gonzalez System is when a lower rated team defeats a higher rated team. The overall success rate of the system is currently 80.32% based on 286 technical upsets in 1453 ranked matches played since 2010-09-25.

This weekend had two technical upsets over five ranked matches.

GSU def UCF 4-1

36.858 def 40.000, exchanging 1.314

There have been 15 induction matches that were technical upsets across our history, with this falling as the seventh highest exchange of an induction match. Over the rest of technical upsets, it ranks #99 of 286 in 65th percentile, so roughly in the zone of statistically uninteresting upsets. Yet it does give GSU a slight rating boost through a slightly fortunate circumstance of playing a new team who has only just begun to establish a foothold within the system.

GSU def UCF 3-2

37.623 def 38.018, exchanging 1.040

GSU’s second game against the U of Central Florida was the second technical upset of the weekend. However, this exchange was much more equal with a shallow rating gap of -0.395 points between the two teams, and even a closer 3-2 box score. Compared to the first match falling in the 65th percentile, this match falls #252 of 286 in 11th percentile. This could be identifiable of a competitive UCF among the other Southern teams, in that GSU and UCF may be similarly rated for the time being. UCF still has about two more matches before they reach six games played and are out of the provisional rating period. There is plenty of direction for this new UCF to play into.

Net Rating Changes

Rating Changes

Pre

Post

Change

GSU

36.858

38.662

1.804

UNG

41.005

42.598

1.594

UCF

40.000

36.603

-3.397

The “Southern Conference” is both new and undeveloped, and it is crucial that we pay attention to any new box scores that come from it’s participating teams. The Georgia Region has a great geographical opportunity to develop into leaders of the other Southern teams.

GSU has gotten a bit of a kick in their past few tournaments, no doubt utilizing the previous gameplay experience against UNG. They have played 13 total matches and eight over this season. It’s a small number but will be immensely helpful in developing their program over the next few years. It’s not about Nationals. It’s about developing a fixture on campus. Nationals is a reward for the active members of the club.

In similar ways as the Midway Conference, UNG is developing into a leader of a sparse area. And just like UWP, we’ll need to see these geographical leaders play other regions to get the most out of interpreting their performance. Thankfully, that is possible in the open, play-who-you-can structure of the NCDA. I’m looking forward to seeing UNG competing against East Coast teams and UWP playing potential Michigan or Ohio squads in the weeks leading up to Nationals.

We might talk about regions, but we’re fairly unified.

Ratings, sorted.

Mov.

Rank

Rating

Team

—

1

55.816

GVSU

—

2

55.030

CMU

—

3

48.851

SVSU

—

4

48.641

Kent

—

5

48.353

Towson

—

6

47.765

JMU

—

7

47.178

BGSU

—

8

45.134

UK

—

9

44.902

UWP

—

10

43.520

MSU

↑ from 13

11

42.598

UNG

↓ from 11

12

42.518

VCU

↓ from 12

13

41.747

Ohio

—

14

40.797

PSU

—

15

40.502 †

UNT

—

16

40.139 †

WKU

—

17

40.020*†

ZAG

—

18

39.980*†

OS

—

19

39.367

Miami

↑ from 29

20

38.662

GSU

↓ from 20

21

38.586*†

UWW

↓ from 21

22

38.557*†

NIU

↓ from 22

23

38.427

OSU

↓ from 23

24

38.304

UNL

↓ from 24

25

38.269*†

SIUE

↓ from 25

26

37.803

UMD

↓ from 26

27

37.722*†

Pitt

↓ from 27

28

37.599

DePaul

↓ from 28

29

36.865*

WVU

—

30

36.636*

Midland

→ Enter

31

36.603*

UCF

↓ from 31

32

36.336

Akron

↓ from 32

33

36.263

UVA

↓ from 33

34

35.556

SU

↓ from 34

35

34.996

MC

↓ from 35

36

34.159

CSU

↓ from 36

37

32.914

NSU

↓ from 37

38

32.595

BW

Movement as of 2018-02-27* denotes a provisional rating (< 6 matches)
† denotes a team that has not played three games this season, the required minimum games needed to qualify for Nationals.

UCF. The U of Central Florida enters the League where most new teams enter, and that isn’t anything too unusual. We have to wait a couple more games to see where UCF falls after their provisional period ends. The first games of a new team are, in reality, never that telling unless they post a winning record. A heavy super majority of new teams do not accomplish this. They just need a handful of games to figure out an identity and it is unfair to read too much into performance until the provision rating is nixed.