WASDE Oilseeds: Lower U.S. Soybean Production; Increased Usage

The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19. The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. With sharply higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 5,165 million bushels, up 3 percent from 2018/19.

Total U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is forecast at 124.2 million tons, down 9.6 million from 2018/19, mainly on lower soybean production. Production forecasts are also lower for canola, but higher for sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed.

The U.S. soybean crush for 2019/20 is projected at 2,115 million bushels, up from the 2018/19 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance partly offset by lower soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1,950 million bushels, up 175 million from the revised forecast for 2018/19.

Despite limited growth in global soybean import demand, U.S. export share is expected to rise to 35 percent from the 2018/19 record low of 32 percent on higher supplies and competitive prices. U.S. ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected at 970 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018/19 forecast.

The 2019/20 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.10 per bushel, down 45 cents from the 2018/19 forecast. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $15.00 from 2018/19. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.5 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents from 2018/19.

Global oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 598.0 million tons, down 2.9 million from 2018/19. Global soybean production is forecast at 355.7 million tons, down 6.4 million with lower production for the United States, Argentina, and Canada partly offset by a higher Brazilian crop.

Brazil’s soybean production is projected at a record 123.0 million tons, up 6.0 million on higher area and trend yield. Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 53.0 million tons, down 3.0 million from the revised 2018/19 forecast due to a lower trend yield.

China’s soybean production is projected 1.1 million tons higher to 17.0 million on reported higher planting intentions. Global production of high-oil content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is projected up 1 percent from 2018/19 on increased rapeseed production for Australia and Ukraine, which is partly offset by lower production for the EU and India. Sunflowerseed crops for Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine are also lower.

Global soybean beginning stocks for 2019/20 are forecast to increase 14.1 million tons compared to 2018/19, leading to higher supply despite lower production. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2 percent in 2019/20, compared to the prior 5-year average of 4 percent. Protein meal consumption growth in China is flat, largely due to suppressed feed demand from outbreaks of African Swine Fever.

Global soybean exports at 151.2 million tons are also relatively flat compared to 2018/19. China’s soybean imports are projected at 87.0 million tons, up only 1.0 million from the revised 2018/19 projection and significantly lower than growth seen in prior years. With stagnant trade and a 2 percent increase for crush offsetting the higher global supply, ending stocks at 113.1 million tons are forecast to decline slightly from 2018/19.

Global vegetable oil production is projected to increase 2 percent to 208.2 million tons, led by increases for palm oil production for Indonesia, soybean oil for Argentina, and sunflowerseed oil for Russia. Global consumption is projected to increase 3 percent in 2019/20, led by palm oil increases for Indonesia, China, Malaysia, and India. With higher consumption, global ending stocks are projected down 1.3 million tons to 20.1 million.