000
FXUS63 KSGF 291705
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
Outflow dominant area of convection over northern MO/Northeast KS
is propagating se-ese. Most high res models continue to weaken
this area in the near term as it moves farther south underneath
mid level ridging. Will continue to carry low pops over the northern
cwfa with the outflow boundary pushing into the area early today.
For later today guidance is a mixed bag as the modest sfcconvergence with the true sfcfront moves into the region this
afternoon. Winds veer quite a bit over southern MO today prior
to the frontal passage which limits convergence. SREF and global
models redevelop at least some modest qpf this afternoon, while
high res models are nil or close to it. Weakly capped moderate
mean layer instability will exist, so it`s just a question of
whether overall weak forcing mechanisms will be able to produce
some updrafts. A blend of guidance yields slight to low chance
pops with overall better chances over the eastern-southeastern
cwfa this afternoon. Doesn`t look long lived or widespread.
Heat index values will be highest over the southeast cwfa this
afternoon and will continue the heat headlines as is pending any
further collaboration with surrounding offices.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
It finally looks like we will see some overall relief from the
humidity for a period of time.
The sfcfront shifts south of the area as sfc high pressure moves
into KS/MO Thursday and the upper levelridge is suppressed back
to the south and southwest. Some elevated late nighttime
convection might spill into the far sw cwfa for early Thursday,
but will go for mostly a dry forecast.
The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS late in the week
and this weekend leaving us in a northwest flow pattern without
any major signals for significant shortwaves and precip as weak
sfc high pressure remains nearby. Differences in timing exist
with the next shortwave moving southeast through the region early
next week. We should see dew points creep up a bit late in the
extended period with only very modest pops/rain chances. Better
chances for rain may hold off until just after this forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015
Cold front was located near I-44 early this afternoon and will
continue its southward push through early evening across the
southwest MO airports. Will continue vicinity showers/thunderstorms
through the afternoon into early evening as the destabilizing
airmass over the region gets lifted by the front.
After early/mid evening...expect convection to end with frontal
passage and loss of daytime heating.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEATWARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ082-
083-096>098-105-106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Terry