cretinbob:Ivo Shandor: Lost Thought 00: In the most technical sense of that term. It had a lower orbit than Sputnik

The North Korean satellite's current orbit is about 100 km above the International Space Station. Sputnik did have a higher apogee but its orbit was elliptical with a perigee of only 215 km (according to Wikipedia). Sputnik re-entered the atmosphere after 3 months and the Korean satellite is coming up on 4.

I just landed a rover on Eve and got a Mk2 capsule to orbit the Mün once before being kicked out into a encounter with Minmus, so I got a kick out of that.

somedude210:No. China and the US are too tied economically to have that happen. That's one of the great things about Nixon opening the door with China, we don't have to worry about direct war with them due to mutual economic destruction.

I do think that if something were to happen, then China, US/UN, SK and Japan would probably move in as a joint operation to quell Best Korea and either unify the Korean Peninsula or break it up a la Germany ca. 1945

jpo2269:While I could be wrong, there are only two certainties, one, you can never trust China to do what is "right," but you can count on China doing what is in its own interest, the rest of the world be damned...

True, I certainly see your scenario playing out. I just think that China realizes that it's still beneficial now and probably for a few more decades, to continue being political adversaries with the US but still deal. Think of it more as the split between Democrats and Republicans circa 1980. We still have our differences ideologically but we know better than to cut our nose off to spite our face. We're willing to work together because we know it'll be mutually beneficial for both of us and help keep us both in a state of balance for the time being. NK is now the Tea Party if they existed in 1980. They'll be tossed aside if they start wreaking havoc.

We want to keep things the way they were, if not as a better working relationship between the major powers in the region. Otherwise, the Teatards take over China/NK/US and its the whole ball game.

You very well may be correct and as I stated from the beginning of my initial post is I do not claim to be an expert on this subject. However, if one were to look at China's actions in the past decade, they have behaved like the prom queen knowing that a handjob is enough to make you forget about her blowing the captain of the football team.

How much longer will the US be useful to China? Yes we are the largest economy in the world, but China's efforts in emerging markets could more than offset the potential loss to our markets should the US try to play hard ball. Add to the mix China owns almost $2 Trillion in US debt and can tease the opportunity for US companies to have an opportunity to sell in the mainland and I could easily see how China could feel they were in a position of strength when dealing with the US re: North Korea.

While I could be wrong, there are only two certainties, one, you can never trust China to do what is "right," but you can count on China doing what is in its own interest, the rest of the world be damned...

Yeah, NK is setting itself up to be nuked... by China. The US would just take out the launch sites or intercept the woefully under-tech missiles the NK warheads are on, we tend to feel bad about picking on retards these days.

China... not so reluctant to respond to someone trying to start a war on their northern border with actual, preemptive force.

But, you're spot on about China's economics and the wealth laying in NK territory. The only problem is 'getting to it' will take a lot of initial investment. A decade or more and untold millions, if not billions to modernize NK's mining operations to the point of being able to get at their RRE wealth.

China 'could' do it, but it's a massive long-term investment in a country that isn't their's AND they have cultural issues regarding the Korean people in general.

There are five nations on this planet that are culturally capable of serious long-term planning. They are, in no particular order, Japan, Japan, Japan, China, and Japan.

As you say, China might not have the economic stability to invest in that kind of plan. And the point you make about their view of the Korean people is definitely a factor. But if they have the money, they would DEFINITELY have the will to pull it off.

Meanwhile, our corporations' idea of a long-term plan is whatever makes the most money over the next, gosh, eight whole months!

Infernalist:but the fact remains that they're still looking at spending ungodly amounts of capital on modernizing the place to get at the RRE wealth.

As opposed to spending ungodly amounts of capital to build empty ghost cities in the middle of the desert that no one will ever live in, use, or even likely visit?

The point is that they already do this (spending ungodly amounts of capital) on public works projects. They do this because it's the only thing keeping their economy from crumbling around them. This would let them redirect that capital towards something that might actually produce a return on investment. If you're throwing money out the window anyway, and it's cold outside, you might as well throw it in the fireplace and get some warmth out of it.

But, you're spot on about China's economics and the wealth laying in NK territory. The only problem is 'getting to it' will take a lot of initial investment. A decade or more and untold millions, if not billions to modernize NK's mining operations to the point of being able to get at their RRE wealth.

China 'could' do it, but it's a massive long-term investment in a country that isn't their's AND they have cultural issues regarding the Korean people in general.

There are five nations on this planet that are culturally capable of serious long-term planning. They are, in no particular order, Japan, Japan, Japan, China, and Japan.

As you say, China might not have the economic stability to invest in that kind of plan. And the point you make about their view of the Korean people is definitely a factor. But if they have the money, they would DEFINITELY have the will to pull it off.

Meanwhile, our corporations' idea of a long-term plan is whatever makes the most money over the next, gosh, eight whole months!

But, you also have to consider that they rather like having the NKs there as a buffer nation and a leashed dog to threaten the U.S. with. They're going to try and maintain that status quo if at all possible. They do NOT want to move into NK unless there's no other choice.

How close to Japan would you have to get to EMP them into the 19th Century?

Really close range. Like...Directly over a city. EMPs are powerful but very short-range.

Now, the Soviets intended on using high-altitude nukes in such number as to blanket the U.S. in an attempt to short out communications coast-to-coast, but their nukes were vastly superior in design and power and number than anything the NK government has access to at the moment.

Thanks,

I'm just afraid they will attack an ally and we will be forced to retaliate.

scottydoesntknow:Hell that new movie "Olympus Has Fallen" farks it up in the commercial, and that's a big budget movie.

But Hollywood is written by a very select group of people. Many of them are non-athletic Manhattan Jews, judging by the insane number of scripts about characters that fit that description to come out.

So if you know anything about anything other than life in Manhattan and higher education, there's often glaring errors that any child with even the most cursory knowledge of the real subject matter could correct.

Example, in the movie Drive the driver, wheelman extraordinaire who knows a lot about cars, comments on how a new racing car "Has nice racing treads." on its tires. But anyone who's taken high school physics will remember that race car tires are smooth for maximum friction. Once the smooth rubber starts to melt, the coefficient is higher than any possible tread pattern and so they just focus on maximizing surface area.

Lusiphur:Infernalist: but the fact remains that they're still looking at spending ungodly amounts of capital on modernizing the place to get at the RRE wealth.

As opposed to spending ungodly amounts of capital to build empty ghost cities in the middle of the desert that no one will ever live in, use, or even likely visit?

The point is that they already do this (spending ungodly amounts of capital) on public works projects. They do this because it's the only thing keeping their economy from crumbling around them. This would let them redirect that capital towards something that might actually produce a return on investment. If you're throwing money out the window anyway, and it's cold outside, you might as well throw it in the fireplace and get some warmth out of it.

This is a very valid point. And yet, if it's so logical as all that, why haven't the Chinese already moved in to modernize NK and simply lay claim to the vast majority of those RREs? They already buy most of NK's mineral exports BELOW COST of extraction..

tinyarena:[t2.gstatic.com image 251x200]Putin: So did America finally do it?Medvedev: No, Un did it.Putin: You mean they stopped? Nobody did it?Medvedev: No,,Un did it.Putin: That's what I said, nobody did it.Medvedev: Stop

Infernalist:But, you also have to consider that they rather like having the NKs there as a buffer nation and a leashed dog to threaten the U.S. with. They're going to try and maintain that status quo if at all possible. They do NOT want to move into NK unless there's no other choice.

I keep hearing this canard, but it really doesn't make any sense. Why do they need a buffer zone? What is it a buffer against? More specifically, what does having a PHYSICAL buffer do in an age where you can travel around the world in less than 24 hours?

As far as having a lap-dog to threaten the US, what does that accomplish for them? What does China get by having a country that is known to not be a credible threat to, really, anyone (except an estimated 30k South Koreans) threaten the world's largest superpower? It's not like the global community makes concessions to China every time one of the Kims rattle their saber.

It's a useless entity, and the people going on and on about buffer zones and lap-dogs are living 50 years ago in a world where the Cold War is still on using Cold War technology. "Buffer Zone" is an anachronism, and doesn't really belong in the modern playbook.

Infernalist:tinyarena: [t2.gstatic.com image 251x200]Putin: So did America finally do it?Medvedev: No, Un did it.Putin: You mean they stopped? Nobody did it?Medvedev: No,,Un did it.Putin: That's what I said, nobody did it.Medvedev: Stop

When you are the prom queen, the prospect of being "the first" will make many a man do things that they normally wouldn't do and put up with a lot of shiat that you wouldn't with a lesser prospect.. With billions of people as a potential market, China has played the golden hoo-hah card perfectly, never giving it up to potential suitors, but giving a glimpse and a promise... and fools come rushing in and the US is at the front of the line...

Lusiphur:Infernalist: But, you also have to consider that they rather like having the NKs there as a buffer nation and a leashed dog to threaten the U.S. with. They're going to try and maintain that status quo if at all possible. They do NOT want to move into NK unless there's no other choice.

I keep hearing this canard, but it really doesn't make any sense. Why do they need a buffer zone? What is it a buffer against? More specifically, what does having a PHYSICAL buffer do in an age where you can travel around the world in less than 24 hours?

As far as having a lap-dog to threaten the US, what does that accomplish for them? What does China get by having a country that is known to not be a credible threat to, really, anyone (except an estimated 30k South Koreans) threaten the world's largest superpower? It's not like the global community makes concessions to China every time one of the Kims rattle their saber.

It's a useless entity, and the people going on and on about buffer zones and lap-dogs are living 50 years ago in a world where the Cold War is still on using Cold War technology. "Buffer Zone" is an anachronism, and doesn't really belong in the modern playbook.

enemy of the state:dameron: My fear is that he'll float a nuke into the port of Long Beach. I have no doubt they could do this. This is exactly the scenario Oppenheimer presented to Congress back in 1945.

<i>Sen. Millikin: We... have mine-detecting devices, which are rather effective... I was wondering if anything of that kind might be available to use as a defense against that particular type of use of atomic bombs.

Dr. Oppenheimer: If you hired me to walk through the cellars of Washington to see whether there were atomic bombs, I think my most important tool would be a screwdriver to open the crates and look. I think that just walking by, swinging a little gadget would not give me the information </i>

It'd be REALLY hard to find a well hidden atomic bomb. Even given 1940's technology, the radioactive plutonium core of an implosion type bomb would weight less than 20 pounds.

This is an extremely important point that nearly everyone overlooks. Best Korea doesn't need missiles to deliver a nuke to take out a US city.

It would be very easy to conceal a nuke in a shipping cargo container and set it off when it gets into SF Bay. Send it part by part to Pakistan as innocent looking bits and pieces (baseball sized chuck of plutonium goes in a tractor engine block), assemble it, put it in a lead box; and into a container headed to the US. You wouldn't even have to bribe people to look the other way. Shielding a nuke so that radiation detectors can't find it is completely trivial, six inches of lead will do the job just fine.

Pakistan got alot of their nuke parts from NK (or was it the other way around?) so, it can be done.

Or, put it on a submarine and send it on a one way trip. You don't have to go all the way to California, Tokyo, US bases in South Korea, or Pearl Harbor are all alot closer.

Probably NK is just running at the mouth, but since they *can* deliver a nuke already, I think this needs to be taken seriously. I'd suggest a nuclear air burst to take out the ...

No, it isn't that easy. Because, we, um. Kind of track ships.

We'd kind of NOTICE a cargo ship leaving north korea for the US, don't you think? Given how much they're being watched?

And I somehow doubt the chinese would let them smuggle it into china, then use one of their freighters, because holy shiat that would backfire on China.

Jim_Callahan:Yeah, NK is setting itself up to be nuked... by China. The US would just take out the launch sites or intercept the woefully under-tech missiles the NK warheads are on, we tend to feel bad about picking on retards these days.

China... not so reluctant to respond to someone trying to start a war on their northern border with actual, preemptive force.

Infernalist:Bschott007: Infernalist: I used to think that he was doing this strictly to shore up support among the ruling military class. Now...Now I have no clue what that lil bastard is up to.

He can't be serious. We all know he can't hit the U.S. How can this possibly end, except in humiliation for NK?

It's like..He's playing poker and going all-in with a handful of junk cards and we've seen them and he's still insisting that he's got a Royal Straight Full House Flush.

Not that I believe he actually intends to strike but let us not dismiss NK out of hand. They don't need an ICBM. That's cold war thinking.

If they really want to strike the US with nukes, NK just has to have a few cargo ships with the NK equivilant of a SCUD missile tipped with a nuke. Park the cargo ship just off-shore and fire the missiles into the US.

Or instead of missiles, either off-load a nuke into a van and drive the van into a city. BOOM.

Or if the van-attack is too much planning, just explode the nuke on-board the ship while it is docked in a harbor.

Heck, if it's a cargo ship, it is big and not much is going to stop it if they decide to sail that near a heavily populated area of a city's shoreline. I very much doubt law enforcement would be able to respond, let alone stop, a 'run away' cargo ship headed towards the city's shoreline...and the military response time? Laughably slow.

Likely-hood of NK doing this? Small to non-existent. Likely-hood NK is going to attack at all? I'm fairly certain this is just saber-rattling but again, if they wanted to attack the US mainland and be assured of their nukes hitting designated targets, then is is a good way to do so without needing ICBMs.

1) How much outgoing NK cargo do you suppose there is?

2) How much of it do you think is going anywhere near America?

3) What's the likelihood of ANY ship leaving NK not getting covertly searched by at least one interested national power?

4) What's the likelihood of NK shipping their only 'real' def ...

If anything, the most "feasible" scenario would be Nuclear Artillery leveling Seoul. We had similar devices in the '50's, and believe it was tossed because our missile and long range bomber tech was enough, combined with the fact that using nuclear ordinance on a battlefield is suicidally stupid in regards to potential effects to your own troops.

doglover:But anyone who's taken high school physics will remember that race car tires are smooth for maximum friction. Once the smooth rubber starts to melt, the coefficient is higher than any possible tread pattern and so they just focus on maximizing surface area.

And anyone who knows anything about cars knows that all but the most purpose-built ultra-high-performance tires (like drag slicks, and some racing slicks) have treads. This is because treads, while technically diminishing the contact patch, serve many other important factors. Like controlling contact geometry. That is, when the tire is placed under stress (such as in high-speed cornering), the rubber deforms in a very specific and planned manner. Or evacuating water and debris, if there is a possibility of either, from underneath the tire.

In fact, most high performance tires have treads. The tire is significantly smoother than any standard tire, but will have several directionally-biased channels.

Or in other words, check your facts before correcting people! (says the slightly out of shape, NYC-living Jew with a race car).

Infernalist:This is a very valid point. And yet, if it's so logical as all that, why haven't the Chinese already moved in to modernize NK and simply lay claim to the vast majority of those RREs? They already buy most of NK's mineral exports BELOW COST of extraction..

Because if they simply tried to take over, South Korea would have a shiat fit, and that would drag the US into it, and we'd have WW3 on our hands. If, instead, they wait for a plausible excuse (like preemptive military action by NK), they get to take over AND look like heroes.

Or, possibly, because the Chinese are not nearly as diabolical and convoluted as I am. I should have been a bond villain. If only I had studied more in college.

You make a very strong argument and one that cannot be dismissed out of hand. What I am trying to argue is not counter to what you are stating. IMO, China is in a position where they could play the Best Korea card and then try to play "make up" with the US...

IMO the whole relationship between the US and China has mostly been to China's benefit with very little coming back to the States. The potential markets in China present a target too tempting to write off, even for the most cynical American (myself included).

yagottabefarkinkiddinme:On 9/11 the DEFCON may have been at 3... But the doomsday plan had gone into effect. I remember the media saying that. Oh, wait. Here it is again.

BS DEFCON3, we were at doomsday.

Link

That...doesn't make sense. You can't jump from Defcon to something completely different. The Doomsday plan does not go into effect when Defcon reaches a certain level and Defcon reaching a certain level does not automatically trigger the plan.

Per the 9/11 Commission report, we only reached Defcon 3. They were on standby for 2, but the order never came.

tnpir:nekom: Oh he can always stand down and claim to his people that the enemy has stood down in utter fear of their awesome armed forces. Unless he pushes just over the edge and shiat gets real. Then it'll be a matter of hours before DPRK as en entity is de facto gone.

Indeed - the only question is whether or not the U.S. does it or China rolls in and does it for us.

awalkingecho:Lusiphur: Infernalist: But, you also have to consider that they rather like having the NKs there as a buffer nation and a leashed dog to threaten the U.S. with. They're going to try and maintain that status quo if at all possible. They do NOT want to move into NK unless there's no other choice.

I keep hearing this canard, but it really doesn't make any sense. Why do they need a buffer zone? What is it a buffer against? More specifically, what does having a PHYSICAL buffer do in an age where you can travel around the world in less than 24 hours?

As far as having a lap-dog to threaten the US, what does that accomplish for them? What does China get by having a country that is known to not be a credible threat to, really, anyone (except an estimated 30k South Koreans) threaten the world's largest superpower? It's not like the global community makes concessions to China every time one of the Kims rattle their saber.

It's a useless entity, and the people going on and on about buffer zones and lap-dogs are living 50 years ago in a world where the Cold War is still on using Cold War technology. "Buffer Zone" is an anachronism, and doesn't really belong in the modern playbook.

Farking THIS. Bears repeating, because I'm tired of hearing it too.

You might not 'like' that these are terms still in use, and if you like, you can use 'other' terms to fit the situation if it makes you feel better, but the reality is this:

NK depends on China for basic survival. They feed them a supply of food and energy to keep the country afloat. They do so for a reason and it's not altruism. NK is a proxy, a loud angry dog that they use to rile the U.S. on occasion. Mostly for political reasons but sometimes just to get us angry.

Un is NOT playing by the rules of the game. He's not supposed to THIS FAR as it brings the American military into play and the Chinese do NOT like that.

As for the term 'buffer zone', it's the same reason why we're so irate about Cuba. It's the same reason why the Soviet Union developed the Iron Curtain and the buffer zone Eastern Europe countries. Now, you may not like that this tactic still exists, but it still DOES exist even if you don't care for it and call it outdated and obsolete. You see, America has no worries about a formidable enemy sitting on its borders. It has two oceans and two proxy nations to secure itself against invasion. China is larger than the U.S. and 'has' no such protection other than their sea between themselves and Japan and 'that' body of water clearly is no barrier to invasion.

So, yes, they treat NK as a buffer zone nation to create some breathing room between themselves and their enemies, even if you don't care for the terms used.

Good bye, Golden Age of the United States. Very soon, our lives will be changing forever in ways we can't even begin to comprehend. The wrath of North Korea will never, never be forgotten. Sure, some of us will survive and adapt to a world that would be unrecognizable to us, but it will be just that, survival. I only hope I'm one of the lucky ones that dies in the immediate aftermath and not one of the ones who will suffer under North Korean supremacy. I for one will be spending my last remaining hours of this life making the best of what's left. The cats and I live like we've never lived before. I'll probably even stop reading Fark for a few minutes and stick my head outside long enough to enjoy the fresh, crisp cool air. And then, I'll cry myself to sleep.

PawisBetlog:ClavellBCMI: Assuming Best Korea's Troll-In-Chief actually *has* nukes to spare to throw at someone, and assuming he actually has a missile to attach them to that can fly further than 1,000km, and assuming he has a guidance system that can actually allow a warhead to come within 5km of his intended target, he *might* actually be able to cause some damage... right before we turn Best Korea into the World's Biggest Glass-Covered Self-Lighting Parking Lot.

SEe, the thing that worries me is an EMP blast. He doesnt' necessarily have to get it close, just explode it 100 miles above the west coast and we are farked in a big way.

That's what worries me, A LOT.

Yeah this.

A while back they had a "failed" missile test - after which they declared that they have the capability of crippling the USA, or something to that effect.

Someone above said that EMP's have a very short range - not so.

One three decent high-altitude EMP's over the US - East, West, Center, and we're farked.

MrHappyRotter:Good bye, Golden Age of the United States. Very soon, our lives will be changing forever in ways we can't even begin to comprehend. The wrath of North Korea will never, never be forgotten. Sure, some of us will survive and adapt to a world that would be unrecognizable to us, but it will be just that, survival. I only hope I'm one of the lucky ones that dies in the immediate aftermath and not one of the ones who will suffer under North Korean supremacy. I for one will be spending my last remaining hours of this life making the best of what's left. The cats and I live like we've never lived before. I'll probably even stop reading Fark for a few minutes and stick my head outside long enough to enjoy the fresh, crisp cool air. And then, I'll cry myself to sleep.

Some Best Korean nerd is skimming this thread and is going to use that verbatim in the next KCNA news broadcast as evidence of our growing despair.