Hickenlooper has wide lead in governor`s race

Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper has a wide lead over his opponents going into the last days of the election, despite third-party candidate Tom Tancredo`s ability to siphon votes form the GOP nominee, according to a DenverPost/9News poll.

With 49 percent of those surveyed backing him, Hickenlooper now has more support than Tancredo and Republican candidate Dan Maes combined.

Tancredo, a former Republican congressman, continues to peel off GOP voters, garnering 39 percent, while Maes continues to slide, coming in at 9 percent. Only 1 percent of those polled said they were undecided.

"It`s hard to see how Tancredo changes this game. Even if Maes drops to 5 percent, it isn`t enough," said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. "Hickenlooper has had the benefit of not having to deal with just one Republican opponent and has kept a low profile, eliminating the chances of making mistakes and starting controversies."

Tancredo switched his affiliation to the American Constitution Party and announced his candidacy right before the August GOP primary. Maes and Scott McInnis, both hit with scandals and missteps, refused Tancredo`s call to get out after the primary if the winner trailed Hickenlooper in the polls. Maes edged out McInnis, but his numbers have consistently declined in the past two months.

If Maes doesn`t get at least 10 percent of the vote, Republicans will drop to minor-party status. At this point, most political observers agree that Tancredo had become the de facto GOP candidate.

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The implosion of both McInnis and Maes candidacies has given Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, a significant edge in a year where Republicans are expected to pick up seats all over the country.

Instead of having to fight in the trenches, Hickenlooper has had the luxury of remaining what Ciruli calls "bland and issueless," as well as appear at fewer public events than most major gubernatorial candidates in years past.

It`s the kind of strategy that looks politically savvy if he wins, but naive if he loses, said Norman Provizer, a political scientist at Metropolitan State College of Denver.

"It`s a calculated move. If I were consulting him I would`ve said 'we`re in good shape, let`s not go negative, let`s not rock the vote,'" Provizer said.

Hickenlooper is collecting 90 percent of the Democratic votes and leads Tancredo with those who have already returned a ballot by 14 percentage points. Among those who haven`t voted but say they will, Hickenlooper is up by 7 percentage points.

Tancredo is picking up two out of three GOP voters and four out of 10 unaffiliateds.

While Tancredo has a 3 percentage point lead among men and is ahead in the Colorado Springs area, Hickenlooper has a 25 pecentage point lead among women and is ahead in the metro-Denver area and the rest of the state.

The automated telephone poll of 702 like voters was conducted by Survey USA Oct. 19-21 and has a margin or error of +/-- 4 percentage points.

Democrat Carole Tomsick of Arvada says her top concern is the economy. She likes that Hickenlooper ran a business before becoming mayor.

"Jobs and business are what I`m worried about," said Tomsick, who is retired. "Hickenlooper is far superior than the others and I have more trust in him."

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