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The WIS simulation engine stinks at evaluating KSU Topic

This is not just a reaction to the hallucinatory 7-5 (4-5) prediction spit out for this year's simulation. For perspective, go back to 2012. The WIS sim engine spit out the following prediction for the ulitimately 11-1 (8-1) Wildcats: 6-6 (4-5). And this wasn't just some one year anomaly. In 2011, WIS's brilliant simulation prediction for K-State, which ultimately finished 10-2 (7-2)? Even FURTHER off-base than the 2012 prediction: 5-7 (3-6). In other words, just looking at conference records, the WIS sim engine was 4 games off each year. Factor in non-con, and it was 5 games off each year.

Considering that the WORST it could POSSIBLY miss by in projecting Big 12 conference results is 9 (prediction 9-0 for an 0-9 team or vice-versa), there's clearly something wrong with how the engine evaluates K-State. In my view, it clearly has NO variable that factors in how well Bill Snyder and the K-State coaching staff "coach up" the kids they land each season. And it clearly values hyped recruits (the 4-star/5-star guys) FAR too highly in regards to how they will perform.

What do you expect from a computer? if its 100 % right then anticipation of the games is weak. If the computer sims 1,000 times for a single game it will have K-state beating their normal non conference foes like North Dakota and Central Wyoming most of the time.

Posted by wildcat98 on 8/22/2013 9:23:00 AM (view original):This is not just a reaction to the hallucinatory 7-5 (4-5) prediction spit out for this year's simulation. For perspective, go back to 2012. The WIS sim engine spit out the following prediction for the ulitimately 11-1 (8-1) Wildcats: 6-6 (4-5). And this wasn't just some one year anomaly. In 2011, WIS's brilliant simulation prediction for K-State, which ultimately finished 10-2 (7-2)? Even FURTHER off-base than the 2012 prediction: 5-7 (3-6). In other words, just looking at conference records, the WIS sim engine was 4 games off each year. Factor in non-con, and it was 5 games off each year.

Considering that the WORST it could POSSIBLY miss by in projecting Big 12 conference results is 9 (prediction 9-0 for an 0-9 team or vice-versa), there's clearly something wrong with how the engine evaluates K-State. In my view, it clearly has NO variable that factors in how well Bill Snyder and the K-State coaching staff "coach up" the kids they land each season. And it clearly values hyped recruits (the 4-star/5-star guys) FAR too highly in regards to how they will perform.

Posted by wildcat98 on 8/22/2013 9:23:00 AM (view original):This is not just a reaction to the hallucinatory 7-5 (4-5) prediction spit out for this year's simulation. For perspective, go back to 2012. The WIS sim engine spit out the following prediction for the ulitimately 11-1 (8-1) Wildcats: 6-6 (4-5). And this wasn't just some one year anomaly. In 2011, WIS's brilliant simulation prediction for K-State, which ultimately finished 10-2 (7-2)? Even FURTHER off-base than the 2012 prediction: 5-7 (3-6). In other words, just looking at conference records, the WIS sim engine was 4 games off each year. Factor in non-con, and it was 5 games off each year.

Considering that the WORST it could POSSIBLY miss by in projecting Big 12 conference results is 9 (prediction 9-0 for an 0-9 team or vice-versa), there's clearly something wrong with how the engine evaluates K-State. In my view, it clearly has NO variable that factors in how well Bill Snyder and the K-State coaching staff "coach up" the kids they land each season. And it clearly values hyped recruits (the 4-star/5-star guys) FAR too highly in regards to how they will perform.

Anytime you lose to North Dakota State maybe the simulation engine is right this year. Kinda seems like the Wildcats are a one year wonder.

Posted by wildcat98 on 8/22/2013 9:23:00 AM (view original):This is not just a reaction to the hallucinatory 7-5 (4-5) prediction spit out for this year's simulation. For perspective, go back to 2012. The WIS sim engine spit out the following prediction for the ulitimately 11-1 (8-1) Wildcats: 6-6 (4-5). And this wasn't just some one year anomaly. In 2011, WIS's brilliant simulation prediction for K-State, which ultimately finished 10-2 (7-2)? Even FURTHER off-base than the 2012 prediction: 5-7 (3-6). In other words, just looking at conference records, the WIS sim engine was 4 games off each year. Factor in non-con, and it was 5 games off each year.

Considering that the WORST it could POSSIBLY miss by in projecting Big 12 conference results is 9 (prediction 9-0 for an 0-9 team or vice-versa), there's clearly something wrong with how the engine evaluates K-State. In my view, it clearly has NO variable that factors in how well Bill Snyder and the K-State coaching staff "coach up" the kids they land each season. And it clearly values hyped recruits (the 4-star/5-star guys) FAR too highly in regards to how they will perform.

Anytime you lose to North Dakota State maybe the simulation engine is right this year. Kinda seems like the Wildcats are a one year wonder.

"One year wonder?" You don't watch much college football, do you?

As for the NDSU game, our D-line, plus Coach Snyder's notoriously vanilla first-game game planning cost us that game. If our DL doesn't improve, though, 3-9 isn't out of the question. Jake Waters and the WRs can't win games by themselves that's for sure.

"hallucinatory 7-5 (4-5) prediction spit out for this year's simulation" ---> "3-9 isn't out of the question"

I smell hyperbole. Also, about WhatIfSports sims being "awful" in regards to K-State:

Of the teams that WhatIfSports projected K-State to lose to last year, only Texas Tech was given lower odds to win the National Title than K-State in the preseason. Vegas must be "awful" too... maybe that's why they make so much money off jokers who think they know so much.

You don't research before you rant. That tells us all we need to know about YOU.

I researched what WIS had predicted for K-State the previous two seasons. Their predicted record for KSU was laughably inaccurate. And Vegas has missed big on KSU a few times in the last couple years on KSU as well.

So, what they hell are you talking about, accusing me of "not researching"?

Also, I noticed you left off the part where I caveated "3-9" with "if our DL doesn't improve", because that fed your "hyperbole" narrative. That says a LOT about YOU.

You didn't catch the point I was driving at, which is: You can't tell me that most people would've expected K-State to do what they have done the last couple years, otherwise, Vegas' expectations of them would've been bigger. So, exactly how do WhatIfSports' projections stand out for being ludicrous beyond MOST projections of K-State? They don't.

Your statement would be 100% correct if you say: "WhatIfSports' predicted record for KSU was inaccurate the past two seasons". But, when you add in a word like "laughably", it insinuates that most others knew K-State would go to the Fiesta Bowl & be a top notch team in 2012. It was far from a given in the preseason that they would be better than TCU, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. So, again... what's so "laughable" about projecting them to lose to those teams?

Posted by pyt100 on 9/2/2013 11:05:00 PM (view original):The bottom line is Kansas State just sucks and apparently the mildcat fans must think they are top 25 material untill a cupcake comes to town and puts them where they should be anyway.

The "bottom line" is that apparently you don't know **** about college football. And "mildcat fans"? Did you come up with that hilarious zinger yourself? You're quite the comedian. You should take that show on the road.