For those who think this year's Brownlow Medal is a one-horse race with Gary Ablett a dead certainty to claim a second medal, you can at least take some solace from the fact we may be in for a thrilling finish.

The winner of the AFL's most prestigious individual award is regularly the subject of intense speculation each year with fans pondering about the overall winner, along with potential top three finishes or bragging rights for the top votes winner at individual clubs.

Ablett, a winner in 2009, enjoyed a stellar season but a purple patch through rounds 7-12 have many believing it's simply his medal to lose. The Gold Coast superstar is considered a less-than-even-money chance to take Charlie home. Not even a seemingly perennial betting plunge on Sam Mitchell will budge him from that position.

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The realfooty.com.au team has completed a phantom Brownlow for the 2013 season and it has produced some fascinating results. Extensive research (well, some cross-referencing of player awards and a little stab in the dark here and there) has concluded that Little Gazza will indeed win a second medal but it will be a close run thing.

The 29-year-old is tipped to fly ahead of the pack, and have 19 votes after 12 rounds, but is expected to poll only a further six votes thereafter. That would leave Ablett with a winning total of 25 votes (only one more than his Brownlow tally last season).

Interestingly, this Phantom Brownlow has Collingwood champion Scott Pendlebury falling agonisingly short of victory on 24 votes, with Geelong captain Joel Selwood taking a podium place with 23 votes.

And for those watching on at the count along with the massive TV audience, at least this particular Brownlow won't be determined until the final round.

Selwood is tipped to be the overall leader after 22 rounds with both Ablett and Pendlebury managing best-on-ground efforts in the final round to move ahead of the top Cat. Pendlebury is tipped to make a late surge with eight votes in the last four rounds.

Nat Fyfe, Dane Swan and Ryan Griffen are also expected to figure promimently but it was the somewhat surprisingly name of Jarryd Roughead who could throw a cat among the pigeons.

This Phantom Brownlow has the Coleman medallist in line to be awarded 21 votes, coming home like a train with five best-on-ground games after round 13.

Gazza to win the Brownlow? It's the likely outcome, but expect a few thrills on the way.

20 comments so far

Of course Ablett is the favourite. The entire VFL - oops AFL, has talked him up so much that even Ablett has believed it himself. He 'expected' to win it at Geelong but was beaten by his team mate Jimmy Bartel (I believe he has always been a superior player). The disbelief on his face that night was priceless. He got his consolation prize the next year.He then moves to a team of nobodies and is always a standout because the rest of his team is below par. The legend lives on. In his own mind.Jobe Watson is also one of the favourites. He should not be playing the game at all, nor should the rest of his teammates. He should also have had his Brownlow of 2012 stripped. He should never have been selected as All Australian, nor be eligible for the Brownlow this year.

Commenter

Oldmikey

Location

Perth

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 6:23PM

VFL-AFL??? He is clearly the best 'midfielder' in the competition. To play so well in a less performing team is amazing!! Clearly your football skills dont extend beyond reading the football section of The Age or you would understand this...

Commenter

dola

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 6:38PM

So Ablett racking up possessions and dominating games is because the rest of the league players are taking it easy on him,and feel sorry for him now he's at the Suns?Got nothing to do with ability Oldmikey?You are a grump aren't you?

Commenter

Wal

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 6:48PM

His 'consolation prize' was in 2009. Cooney won it in 2008

Commenter

Sixshootin' Daddy

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 7:12PM

You've got no idea Oldmikey

Commenter

JT

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 7:52PM

Did you kick the dog tonight too Oldmikey?

Commenter

Empho

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 8:07PM

Ablett but on only just? indeed, how would you create an interest if it was a forgone conclusion?

There is only one superstar in the comp and the majority of the footy loving public see only glimpses of him in his prime. In comparison the rest just make up the numbers. It maybe a generation before we see his like again.

Of all the self inflicted damage to the AFL this year this remains for me one of the most disappointing.

Commenter

Andy

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 11:57PM

Jimmy Bartel - you're joking right? Bartel joins a list of other average players who have won the chas - cooney, liberatore, akermanis, woewodin. He's a handy player but give me Enright, Chapman and Selwood as a minimum before Bartel.

VFL - I'm not sure but I think GCS play in queensland but you guys in the west just call it East don't you?

Probably bitter because the only recent WA boy to win the chas was playing enhanced all the time. He's the guy who should have his brownlow stripped along with Watson - have no fear Watson will lose his - its a joke that cousins didn't too.

Commenter

wear the fox hat

Date and time

September 22, 2013, 9:49AM

Essendon players are eligible with WADA sanctions hanging over their heads?

Commenter

Wal

Date and time

September 21, 2013, 6:40PM

Of course they are eligible this year as their possible infractions were 2012. I think eventually Jobe's win last year will be taken off him and that is probably the right thing even though it is sad for him and the other players who appeared to be trying to do the right thing.