Take word of 'experts' with a grain of salt

Published: Friday, May 18, 2012 at 4:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 5:24 p.m.

See if you can spot anything meaningful in the following: aaaaaaaaaaabbbbbbbbbccccccccEEEEEEEEEEEE ...

Facts

Worrell can be reached at cworr@juno.com

If you did, then you, too, can become an economic statistician, or a climate researcher, or maybe even a political forecaster. You can sift unrelated data and make sound predictions on what is going to happen in the future. The ancient Greeks had the same sort of profession, except they called it the Oracle of Delphi. Just in case you aren’t up to snuff on your ancient history, I’ll describe it for you. (I am not making this up.)

There’s this hole in the ground near Mount Parnassus, smack dab in the middle of Greece. An older woman known for her purity was suspended in a sling on a tripod over the hole, and fumes from the rotting body of Python (an earth spirit slain by Apollo), which was supposed to be down inside, would rise up in a stupefying mist and send the dear old lady into a raving fit. (I really am not making this up.)

Her grunts and yells were translated into elegant Greek hexameters (I forget exactly what a hexameter is — maybe like a Longfellow poem?) by translators standing by, and then the future could be known to whoever was asking the questions. I expect the accuracy was about as good as what the previously mentioned professions usually attain.

Whenever I read or listen to a highly educated professional stating what is going to happen in the future, I remind myself about an experiment in which a chimpanzee threw three darts at the Wall Street Journal’s stock pages, and those three stocks the darts hit outperformed the three picks by three renowned stockbrokers who were also participating.

In the Bible, a prophet had to have his prophecies come true, or else he was done in for being a fake. The guys who wrote the Old Testament, who were prophets, therefore had a pretty good batting record there. Not like today at all.

I have concluded that the facts of the matter are: We don’t have any idea what the stock market will be doing in six months, no idea what the political situation will be this time next year, and no idea whatsoever what the weather will be like in 20 years. All we can really do is be prepared to deal with the worst. So here it is.

Regardless who wins what office in November, the government will keep spending more than it takes in. Eventually the people doing the lending will stop and say, “Hey, wait a minute here. What are the chances we’re going to get all of this money back?”

Then the government will start making more money out of thin air, which the Federal Reserve already does, anyway.

The dollar, one of which used to buy me a comic book and a soda and pay for a Saturday matinee, will become so worthless that my wife will use them to light the stove during the winter.

The stock market will rise ... and eventually crash. Then it will recover and rise again. Then it will crash. It may rise for 10 years straight, but it will crash also. If your retirement is dependent entirely on the stock market, try to avoid retiring when a crash is coming.

The weather will be hotter than normal sometimes and colder than normal sometimes. It will snow or rain more than usual and then get dryer than usual. Nothing in nature ever stays in balance — there is no such thing as normal temperature or rainfall.

The puzzle at the beginning of this column doesn’t mean anything. It’s just random data, same as what all experts use when making their prognostications. Monkeys throwing darts are just as accurate. Besides, hanging an old lady over a stinking hole in the ground sounds like a lot more trouble than it would be worth.

Stop letting the news experts worry you so much about the future. Pray for forgiveness and insure everything. Then go live your life as honestly as you can.

<p>See if you can spot anything meaningful in the following: aaaaaaaaaaabbbbbbbbbccccccccEEEEEEEEEEEE ...</p><p>If you did, then you, too, can become an economic statistician, or a climate researcher, or maybe even a political forecaster. You can sift unrelated data and make sound predictions on what is going to happen in the future. The ancient Greeks had the same sort of profession, except they called it the Oracle of Delphi. Just in case you aren't up to snuff on your ancient history, I'll describe it for you. (I am not making this up.)</p><p>There's this hole in the ground near Mount Parnassus, smack dab in the middle of Greece. An older woman known for her purity was suspended in a sling on a tripod over the hole, and fumes from the rotting body of Python (an earth spirit slain by Apollo), which was supposed to be down inside, would rise up in a stupefying mist and send the dear old lady into a raving fit. (I really am not making this up.)</p><p>Her grunts and yells were translated into elegant Greek hexameters (I forget exactly what a hexameter is — maybe like a Longfellow poem?) by translators standing by, and then the future could be known to whoever was asking the questions. I expect the accuracy was about as good as what the previously mentioned professions usually attain.</p><p>Whenever I read or listen to a highly educated professional stating what is going to happen in the future, I remind myself about an experiment in which a chimpanzee threw three darts at the Wall Street Journal's stock pages, and those three stocks the darts hit outperformed the three picks by three renowned stockbrokers who were also participating.</p><p>In the Bible, a prophet had to have his prophecies come true, or else he was done in for being a fake. The guys who wrote the Old Testament, who were prophets, therefore had a pretty good batting record there. Not like today at all.</p><p>I have concluded that the facts of the matter are: We don't have any idea what the stock market will be doing in six months, no idea what the political situation will be this time next year, and no idea whatsoever what the weather will be like in 20 years. All we can really do is be prepared to deal with the worst. So here it is.</p><p>Regardless who wins what office in November, the government will keep spending more than it takes in. Eventually the people doing the lending will stop and say, “Hey, wait a minute here. What are the chances we're going to get all of this money back?”</p><p>Then the government will start making more money out of thin air, which the Federal Reserve already does, anyway.</p><p>The dollar, one of which used to buy me a comic book and a soda and pay for a Saturday matinee, will become so worthless that my wife will use them to light the stove during the winter.</p><p>The stock market will rise ... and eventually crash. Then it will recover and rise again. Then it will crash. It may rise for 10 years straight, but it will crash also. If your retirement is dependent entirely on the stock market, try to avoid retiring when a crash is coming.</p><p>The weather will be hotter than normal sometimes and colder than normal sometimes. It will snow or rain more than usual and then get dryer than usual. Nothing in nature ever stays in balance — there is no such thing as normal temperature or rainfall.</p><p>The puzzle at the beginning of this column doesn't mean anything. It's just random data, same as what all experts use when making their prognostications. Monkeys throwing darts are just as accurate. Besides, hanging an old lady over a stinking hole in the ground sounds like a lot more trouble than it would be worth.</p><p>Stop letting the news experts worry you so much about the future. Pray for forgiveness and insure everything. Then go live your life as honestly as you can.</p><p>So says I, the Oracle in Tuxedo.</p>