How Le Pen can win

As with the false Labour polling that caused the BBC and Guardian to treat Ed Miliband as our next Prime Minister before he’d even won, there are four problems with the poll.

They are commissioned, paid for. Conflict of interest, bias likely.

They collect in urban environments, bias definitely.

Many who say they will vote (usually the so-called centrist) do not. They don’t care who actually wins and can claim later to have voted even when they did not.

The right wing habitually lie to the pollsters for fear of being harassed (Shy Tory phenomena). Any intelligent person talking to a survey-taker, will lie, regardless of political stripe. You want the enemy to overestimate their numbers (see Brexit’s Remain, cocky before the vote).