Analysis: Pyongyang’s missile plans ramp up tensions

Matthew Pennington

02:17Wednesday 04 April 2012

Despite tough talk, the West will have limited options if North Korea goes ahead with its planned long-range rocket launch this month.

The United States is likely to take the matter to the UN Security Council, analysts say, and could tighten its already tough sanctions. Such efforts would struggle without support from China, which can be expected to resist any threat to the stability of its neighbour.

There also is deep uncertainty about where turning the screw further on North Korea would lead. After the Security Council condemned its previous long-range rocket launch in 2009, North Korea responded by kicking out UN nuclear inspectors, pulling out of aid-for-disarmament negotiations and conducting its second detonation of an atomic device.

“At minimum, there has to be a statement of criticism,” said Gordon Flake, a Washington-based Korea analyst. “The question is how North Korea will react, and history suggests it won’t react well.”

The stakes are higher than they were in 2009, as the potential for tensions on the Korean peninsula to escalate into conflict is greater now than it was then. South Korea’s government came under heavy domestic criticism for what was seen as a weak response to a North Korean artillery barrage that killed four people on a front-line island in 2010. Earlier that year, North Korea was believed to have torpedoed a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors. The North denied responsibility.

North Korea says the missile launch is intended to place an observation satellite into orbit. But others view the launch as a cover for a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that one day could carry a nuclear warhead.

Crucially for Washington, if the three-stage Unha-3 rocket works, it could demonstrate that North Korea has parts of the US in its missile range.

The launch would violate both a UN ban and an accord the impoverished country reached with with the US on 29 February, under which it would freeze nuclear activities and observe a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests in exchange for 240,000 tonnes of food aid.

The launch plans, disclosed a little more than two weeks after the accord was announced, undermined what little faith the West and Seoul had in North Korea’s sincerity about talks on its nuclear programme. They also all but squashed the fleeting prospect that the nation would change after the death in December of its long-time ruler, Kim Jong-il.

US president Barack Obama, facing a campaign for re-election and accused by Republicans of naïvete for reaching out to North Korea, pointedly visited the heavily militarised Korean border last week during a trip to South Korea for a nuclear summit. North Korea’s new leader, Kim Jong-un, previously had made the visit from the northern side. Obama implored the North’s leaders “to have the courage to pursue peace”, but warned that unless they changed their ways, the country would face “more isolation”. But neither he nor other officials have said what steps will be taken should the missile be launched.

Fears about the launch have spread farther afield. The Philippines has expressed concern about falling debris. Indonesia says the launch would undermine regional stability. Russia and China, which have long-standing ties with the North, also have urged Pyongyang to rethink its plans. Vietnam has urged North Korea to comply with Security Council resolutions. The breadth of criticism reflects not just recognition that the launch would violate UN resolutions, but that this rocket, unlike previous launches, will head not eastward over Japan and into the Pacific, but toward busier waters off South-east Asia.

China is being urged to nudge its neighbour into line, but the prospects appear slim. North Korea has promoted the launch as a sign of the nation’s strength as it marks the centennial of the birth of its founder, Kim Il-sung. Recent satellite imagery showed preparations under way at the launch site.

This website and its associated newspaper adheres to the Independent Press Standards Organisation's Editors' Code of Practice.
If you have a complaint about editorial content which relates to inaccuracy or intrusion, then contact the
Editor by clicking here.

If you remain dissatisfied with the response provided then you can contact the IPSO by
clicking here.

The Scotsman provides news, events and sport features from the Edinburgh area. For the best up to date information relating to Edinburgh and the surrounding areas visit us at The Scotsman regularly or bookmark this page.

For you to enjoy all the features of this website The Scotsman requires permission to use cookies.

Find Out More ▼

What is a Cookie?

What is a Flash Cookie?

Can I opt out of receiving Cookies?

About our Cookies

Cookies are small data files which are sent to your browser (Internet Explorer, Firefox, Chrome etc) from a website you visit. They are stored on your electronic device.

This is a type of cookie which is collected by Adobe Flash media player (it is also called a Local Shared Object) - a piece of software you may already have on your electronic device to help you watch online videos and listen to podcasts.

Yes there are a number of options available, you can set your browser either to reject all cookies, to allow only "trusted" sites to set them, or to only accept them from the site you are currently on.

However, please note - if you block/delete all cookies, some features of our websites, such as remembering your login details, or the site branding for your local newspaper may not function as a result.

The types of cookies we, our ad network and technology partners use are listed below:

Revenue Science ►

A tool used by some of our advertisers to target adverts to you based on pages you have visited in the past. To opt out of this type of targeting you can visit the 'Your Online Choices' website by clicking here.

Google Ads ►

Our sites contain advertising from Google; these use cookies to ensure you get adverts relevant to you. You can tailor the type of ads you receive by visiting here or to opt out of this type of targeting you can visit the 'Your Online Choices' website by clicking here.

Digital Analytics ►

This is used to help us identify unique visitors to our websites. This data is anonymous and we cannot use this to uniquely identify individuals and their usage of the sites.

Dart for Publishers ►

This comes from our ad serving technology and is used to track how many times you have seen a particular ad on our sites, so that you don't just see one advert but an even spread. This information is not used by us for any other type of audience recording or monitoring.

ComScore ►

ComScore monitor and externally verify our site traffic data for use within the advertising industry. Any data collected is anonymous statistical data and cannot be traced back to an individual.

Local Targeting ►

Our Classified websites (Photos, Motors, Jobs and Property Today) use cookies to ensure you get the correct local newspaper branding and content when you visit them. These cookies store no personally identifiable information.

Grapeshot ►

We use Grapeshot as a contextual targeting technology, allowing us to create custom groups of stories outside out of our usual site navigation. Grapeshot stores the categories of story you have been exposed to. Their privacy policy and opt out option can be accessed here.

Subscriptions Online ►

Our partner for Newspaper subscriptions online stores data from the forms you complete in these to increase the usability of the site and enhance user experience.

Add This ►

Add This provides the social networking widget found in many of our pages. This widget gives you the tools to bookmark our websites, blog, share, tweet and email our content to a friend.