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This is what drive me nuts about Andy: He thinks he's rooting for a terrible team, despite the fact that they're above .500 at the halfway point, coming off a 95-win season. On behalf of all the Rays, Orioles, Jays, Royals, Twins, Indians, White Sox, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks fans out there, let me just say: You have no idea what it's like to root for a terrible team.

Yeah, it's all relative, and again, I'm neither "whining" nor even complaining about it. But none of that changes the fact that this is currently a terrible roster, and in fact they're likely to finish with a worse record than most of those teams you just named.

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If, after decades of watching baseball, you don't know how to "ignore" 6 weeks of a 4.92 ERA for an established player ... I really don't know what to tell you.

Condescension aside, Sabathia's career ERA is 3.53. His aforementioned ERA for the last 6 weeks is 4.92. The approximate midway point between those two numbers is 4.22. By the end of the season, where do you think he's going to wind up, closer to 3.53 or to 4.92? Since his overall 2013 ERA is 4.15, you're getting a running head start if you choose the under.

And BTW I'm not claiming to know the answer one way or the other. I'm only saying that neither do you, which is why I put my question in the form of....a question.

Andy, if this comes as a newsflash, so be it: players do not play to their established ability level in every sample period of the data.

I don't have the knowledge base to put out projections like Dan does, but I can assure you he bases his projections on more than six weeks of data.

And after 2011 this shouldn't come as a newsflash to you, but those mathematical projections aren't exactly infallible. I'm just as comfortable sticking my intuitive neck out on this as you were in trusting that coolstandings "It's always been over" site, which helped make you a legend around here. We'll see who's proven right at the end of the year, and if the Yanks even wind up over .500, feel free to ridicule me to your heart's content.

This is what drive me nuts about Andy: He thinks he's rooting for a terrible team, despite the fact that they're above .500 at the halfway point, coming off a 95-win season. On behalf of all the Rays, Orioles, Jays, Royals, Twins, Indians, White Sox, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks fans out there, let me just say: You have no idea what it's like to root for a terrible team.

Andy is one of those fans who gloats when his team is doing well (which, for the past two decades, has been the case). He likes to jab opposing fans on occasion.

Nothing wrong with it, but I've found it's a sign of a fan who is too emotionally invested in the well being of his team, so when his team goes through a poor stretch the fan gets really down about it and ends up saying some silly things.

Andy is one of those fans who gloats when his team is doing well (which, for the past two decades, has been the case). He likes to jab opposing fans on occasion.

Nothing wrong with it, but I've found it's a sign of a fan who is too emotionally invested in the well being of his team, so when his team goes through a poor stretch the fan gets really down about it and ends up saying some silly things.

We'll see how silly it is at the end of the season. Do you want to propose an actual over/under win total that will put you on record, or do you just want to CYA by being able to say that if I'm wrong I was "silly" while if I turn out to be right it was only a lucky guess?

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Would any franchise's fanbase likely react as loudly/boisterously as the Yankees' would if they somehow traded Rivera?

Now that's something that would make me howl bloody murder, though you'd get the same sort of reaction from Orioles' fans if they traded Cal, and for the very same reason. Plenty of teams have fan bases that would react to similar situations if a situation that was actually similar ever presented itself. The Indians trade of Rocky Colavito will never be forgotten or forgiven by Indians' fans of a certain age.

But I can't think of a single team with an immoveable "elder statesman" like the Yankees and Rivera right now.

Also, YES is showing the Yankees/Red Sox crazy Jeter face-plant game from nine years ago today. It was - by far - the best regular-season game I've ever seen. And the best Game Chatter I've ever participated in.

This is what drive me nuts about Andy: He thinks he's rooting for a terrible team, despite the fact that they're above .500 at the halfway point, coming off a 95-win season.

I'm going to dial it back a little bit and requote his first post in this thread:

This is a roster with three everyday players with an OPS+ over 100, and one starting pitcher with an ERA+ over 100. And one of those four players (Hafner) has had an OPS of .580 since the first of May.

It isn't very complicated. This is a terrible team that's going downhill fast, and to try to plug it up for the short run is just throwing good money after bad. Their current 42-38 record is nothing more than the view of a man who's jumped off of the Empire State building and is passing the 55th floor on his way down to the sidewalk. It's been a great run, but it's time to face the facts and start rebuilding from the ground up.

OK, I'll stipulate they have a winning record so far, and had a great season last year. It seems that everyone is reacting to the message conveyed in his next-to-last sentence and prior, and I'll let that go for a minute.

Does anyone dispute his last sentence: "It's been a great run, but it's time to face the facts and start rebuilding from the ground up." Anyone? Are they better off punting on 2013, with so many things going wrong in 2013 that are not likely to be better in 2014? Should they stand pat? Should they be buyers at the deadline?

Trying to be objective about it, I'd say he's right; it's time to rebuild. And good timing, too: there are 20 teams or so* that will enter the ASB with an argument that they can contend in 2013 for their division title. There are a lot of potential buyers and few potential sellers. If they're going to sell, this month is the time to do it.

* Possibly including the Yankees. They could go either way. What makes me think they should be sellers rather than buyers is the notion that when a team spends Year N old and injured, they are unlikely to be much better in Year N+1. Old is one thing, but old and injured is hard to bounce back from.

The calculus changes because of who the franchise is. Do they "owe" the fans a chance for Rod/Jeter/Granderson to get hot for two weeks in October? How will a selloff be seen by Bronx partisans? Will attendance crater if they do?

How much of attendance is locked in, with season tickets and ticket packages? I am just curious-wouldn't 80% of the sales for the rest of the season be closed/sold by now? And if so, walk-up sales and later purchases are not going to be zero-you will always have tourists wanting to see a game in Yankee stadium, whether they are 80-60 in September, or 60-80.

The calculus changes because of who the franchise is. Do they "owe" the fans a chance for Rod/Jeter/Granderson to get hot for two weeks in October? How will a selloff be seen by Bronx partisans? Will attendance crater if they do?

I expect that they will announce sometime in the coming few weeks that Jeter won't be able to make it back this season and that, therefore, they have no chance so will commence focusing on next year when they have their leader back.

bfan, there was little "buzz" about this team in the preaseason, which is when they sell a lot of tickets late in the year. It's a tough marketing environment in NYC anyway; with the recession hitting the city particularly hard, they haven't seen the "Wall Street bump" that they were expecting when they planned/built the park in 2007/2008. I think 80% is very high; my guess is that it's closer to 50%. They won't be drawing zero fans at any time, but they could still drop precipitously.

But I can't think of a single team with an immoveable "elder statesman" like the Yankees and Rivera right now.

Are they really losing that much by not trading Rivera, even if it were possible? How many Larry Andersen for Bagwell deals have there been recently (granting that that was probably the most extreme example). I ask seriously - I don't have the answer. How much would a contender give up for 20-30 innings of Mariano Rivera here in the year 2013? And it would be a TOTAL of 20-30 innings, since he's retiring.

If I were a good bet for a postseason birth this year, I would give up a good package in order to acquire a man of Rivera's pedigree, particularly in the playoffs. And it would give me the opportunity to move my existing bullpen "down" a slot. He wouldn't be a tremendous loss from the Yankees (assuming they slide into a non-playoff year, which I think is most likely). But he'd be a tremendous gain for a contender.

Those players are not scrubs, they were/were supposed to be everyday starting players
3: The DL'd players have been replaced by Lyle Overbay who was last a league average 1B in 2009;
Dave Adams/Jason Nix (ugh); Eduardo Nunez; Vernon Wells...

4: Their Pythag is 39-42 (real record 42-39), how their Pythag is that GOOD is beyond me, they have replacement level players/performance at 6 out of 9 lineup slots, they have one starting pitcher with an ERA+ over 100

This team for all the world looks like a .400 team, and I'd be surprised if they play better than .400 from here to the end, my over under for them is 75 wins, only because they have 42 wins in the bank already

These are the effing Yankees, they don't HAVE to rebuild, just effing whip out the pocket book and reload.

That was the point of my post up there somewhere: there has to be something to buy with your money. Name the FA that is a Yankee-quality 3B, 1B, SS, CF. Yes, you can overpay for league average production but the big pieces aren't there. In any case, since the modern equivalent of just whip out your checkbook, they've won a couple of titles in 10 years? They got back on top in the 90s by buiding a great farm system and developing talent, then throwing in a key FA here and there. The idea that the entire starting lineup can be because you were the high bidder isn't sustainable even for the Yankees.

This team for all the world looks like a .400 team, and I'd be surprised if they play better than .400 from here to the end, my over under for them is 75 wins, only because they have 42 wins in the bank already

You guys keep proving my point. They look like a .400 team to Yankee fans, because Yankee fans have no idea what a real .400 team looks like.

The Yankees are fourth in the league in run prevention, and fourth from the bottom in run scoring. That looks like a .500 team to me.

Did that yesterday with the 10 year old team I coach (didn't work, wild pitch scored the run). Fun part was explaining to the kids after the game the reasoning behind it, THEN having roughly the same conversation with many of the parents as well.

In the end, it didn't really work for the Red Sox either. It got 'em through the inning. One of the most entertaining parts was Millar switching between an OF glove and an IF glove as the Sox went 5-man, then 4-man, then 5-man.

You guys keep proving my point. They look like a .400 team to Yankee fans, because Yankee fans have no idea what a real .400 team looks like.

I'm not an effing Yankees fan, I'm a Mets fan and trust me I know what a .400 team looks like, and the 2013 Yankees look like a .400 team if ever a team looked like one.

Forget the team name, look at the everyday lineup,
Chris Stewart and Austin Romine catching
36 year old Lyle Overbay at 1B
Jason Nix and Ed Nunez at SS
David Adams at 3b
Vernon Wells in left
39 year old Ichiro! in right (working on 3rd straight sub 100 OPS+)
sure Robbie Cano has been Robbie Cano and Gardner has been terrific
but jeesh, you cannot objectively look at that and say that is NOT a bad team.

Forget the team name, look at the everyday lineup,
Chris Stewart and Austin Romine catching
36 year old Lyle Overbay at 1B
Jason Nix and Ed Nunez at SS
David Adams at 3b
Vernon Wells in left
39 year old Ichiro! in right (working on 3rd straight sub 100 OPS+)
sure Robbie Cano has been Robbie Cano and Gardner has been terrific
but jeesh, you cannot objectively look at that and say that is NOT a bad team.

Sure, but that ignores that Granderson, Teixeira, Jeter, ARod and Youkilis were all expected to contribute at least half a season (and of course some of them are still expected back at some point). That they have all been wipeouts so far has to be somewhere in the 90th percentile of injury luck.

These are the effing Yankees, they don't HAVE to rebuild, just effing whip out the pocket book and reload.

That was the point of my post up there somewhere: there has to be something to buy with your money. Name the FA that is a Yankee-quality 3B, 1B, SS, CF. Yes, you can overpay for league average production but the big pieces aren't there. In any case, since the modern equivalent of just whip out your checkbook, they've won a couple of titles in 10 years? They got back on top in the 90s by buiding a great farm system and developing talent, then throwing in a key FA here and there. The idea that the entire starting lineup can be because you were the high bidder isn't sustainable even for the Yankees.

The irony of this thread is that the Yankee fans are more objective about their team's actual strengths and weakness than their non-fans, who must be haunted by visions of zombie Derek Jeters and Curtis Grandersons rising in September to deny their favorites a chance at October glory. I can see where they're coming from, but at the risk of plagiarizing the most famous misstatement in BTF history and applying it to the Yankees's 2013 postseason chances: It's over. It's always been over.

And BTW even good old coolstandings now gives the Yanks only an 11.7% chance of making the postseason, for whatever that's worth. The ALE's next worst team (Toronto) is given a 20% chance.

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The Yankees are fourth in the league in run prevention, and fourth from the bottom in run scoring. That looks like a .500 team to me.

The Yanks' projected record according to coolstandings is 79.6 - 82.4. If anyone, including Tom and/or FancyPants, wants to take the over on that, please let me know.

There has been a bizarre belief among NYC's MSM that Nunez was a good MLB hitter who was being blocked (through no fault of his own) by a future HOFer and the fact that the Yankees had a guy who'd be a starter for at least 20+ MLB teams was a testament to their depth...

IMHO the people who claim the 2013 Yankees are not imploding sound a lot like those who were belittling Mets fans in 2009 for thinking the sky was falling (it was). The only real difference is that the Yankees will not be hamstrung moneywise moving forward

Sure, but that ignores that Granderson, Teixeira, Jeter, ARod and Youkilis were all expected to contribute at least half a season

They haven't have they?
What's even worse
Teix was basically a league average [starting 1b} anyway
Youkilis wasn't all that hot in 2012
They need AROD to be a great player, no one thinks he would have been/ will be again (though his reanimated corpse has to be an improvement over the wretched bag of suck that has been playing 3B in the Bronx this year)
Jeter is a range challenged 39 year old SS, I think even rabid Jeter fans were/are cringing at the thought of how he will play SS in the future.

This is a team that HAS to reload/rebuild, there is no "core" that can be built around any more.

There has been a bizarre belief among NYC's MSM that Nunez was a good MLB hitter who was being blocked (through no fault of his own) by a future HOFer

Yes, and this was his big chance. I would argue that we don't actually know anything about Nunez that we didn't know last year at this time. If he was going to wash out, I would have preferred to see it in a very large sample size.

They need AROD to be a great player, no one thinks he would have been/ will be again (though his reanimated corpse has to be an improvement over the wretched bag of suck that has been playing 3B in the Bronx this year)
Jeter is a range challenged 39 year old SS, I think even rabid Jeter fans were/are cringing at the thought of how he will play SS in the future.

The low-end projection for these guys at the plate would be a significant, significant improvement over what the Yankees have had at those positions. Their returns are indeed fraught with peril and won't solve everything, but both would almost certainly be welcomed by any non-haters who likee de beisbol.

But even if the post-opening day injuries had never occurred and if Jeter and A-Rod had returned as soon as those initial propaganda reports had initially claimed they would, all five of those players are clearly on the downside of their careers with serious issues going forward. There's absolutely no guarantee that collectively they'll contribute all that much more in 2014 than they will by the end of 2013.

To get down to cases, Jeter is never going to recover his full lateral range, which was bad enough to begin with. A-Rod has had so many injuries and relapses that it's hard to see him contributing even as much as he did in 2012. Whenever I think of Teixeira's injury, I think of Nick Johnson. Youkilis is an old man with declining production and a back problem---Nuf sed. And while Granderson could hopefully be the exception to this sorry trend, he's still going to have to re-discover a way not to chase off-the-plate pitches halfway to Mars.

And of course it ignores the good rotation

?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Well, at least we've made a partial progression in reality checking at this point, since that rotation been downgraded from "very good" to just "good" within the matter of a few short hours. (smile)

The low-end projection for these guys at the plate would be a significant, significant improvement over what the Yankees have had at those positions. Their returns are indeed fraught with peril and won't solve everything, but both would almost certainly be welcomed by any non-haters who likee de beisbol.

I obviously don't hate the Yankees and hope that those two will return and match the most optimistic projections, but in truth it's likely to be halfway to watching them perform in some 2018 old timers' game.

I don't have the projections here (and they'd have changed, maybe a lot), but if Rod and Jeter match their optimistic projections, this team will make a playoff run. I don't think that's particularly realistic, though.

Well, at least we've made a partial progression in reality checking at this point, since that rotation been downgraded from "very good" to just "good" within the matter of a few short hours.

Well, the "very good" didn't come from me. But in fairness, the OP was referring to the whole pitching staff, not the rotation. Their pitching staff has a 106 ERA+, with an underperforming CC. Whether that qualifies "very good" or "good"... I'll let other people split those hairs. I'll stand by good rotation and great bullpen as my qualifiers.

Well, at least we've made a partial progression in reality checking at this point, since that rotation been downgraded from "very good" to just "good" within the matter of a few short hours. (smile)

To be fair I think the original poster said the "staff" not the rotation was very good- and the 2013 Yankees do have an outstanding Bullpen (it's really all that separates the 2013 Yankees from the Mets)

To get down to cases, Jeter is never going to recover his full lateral range, which was bad enough to begin with.

I think Jeter's done. 39-year-olds don't suffer devastating injuries, causing them to miss most or all of a season, and come back with anything left in the tank. I bet Jeter doesn't even have 100 hits left in his career.

For single seasons, From 1998 to 2013, Played 50% of games at 1B, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=120 and Qualified for league batting title), sorted by greatest number of players matching criteria in a single season

Would the Orioles trade their rotation to the Yankees in exchange for their rotation? The Red Sox?

Going forward through the end of 3013, I'd rather have a starting five of Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, Hammel and Gausman than Kuroda, CC, Pettitte, Hughes and Phelps/Nova. And beyond that the gap would figure to increase for the next few years. The age factor is just too great for me to brush aside, and that's not even getting into the contracts, which would make the whole thought of a swap into a big guffaw.

Jeter has made demographics and the aging curve look foolish before. I think he's most likely done as well, but I've learned to stop expecting normal aging out of him. Now Rod is, I think, declining at a much more typical rate.

They could trade Cano but won't. They could trade Gardner, he might actually bring back something nice. There's no other position player anybody else wants enough to give up anything for (if at all).

On the pitching side, you can't trade Pettitte, nobody will want CC's contract at the moment, Kuroda seems to only want to pitch for the Dodgers (going nowhere) or the Yanks and seems happy with 1-year deals. You can't trade Rivera, maybe a couple of other bullpen guys but who's going to give you a substantial piece for Boone Logan?

The Yanks have two pieces worth something to other teams -- Gardner and Robertson -- and both are they type of guys they want to stick around. Certainly you listen to offers -- niether's young nor good enough to build around -- but there's no major incentive to move them.

That leaves Cano. Trading him would be giving up on 2014-16 ... which might be wise if even keeping him won't make a difference. (The Yanks will get little for Cano unless he agrees to an extension with his new team.)

There are always opportunities to use money to acquire talent. Not all of these opportunities are signing FA's.

In theory but who? These players are usually ones on "bad" contracts. There aren't many bad contracts out there anymore and the ones that are there are bad contracts for very good reasons. Howard? Pujols? Hamilton? I suppose that if the Jays don't put together a second half run they might be willing to trade Buehrle or Reyes.

Ryan Zimmerman might be an interesting guy to ask about. He's got 6/$100 left and if the shoulder is bringing his days at third to an end, he's still probably a 3-4 WAR 1B. (Rfield has him as perfectly decent at 3B this year.)

As to 2013-4, since the Brewers are going nowhere, the Yanks might enquire about Aramis Ramirez. But then he's old, fragile and not having a great season.

The calculus changes because of who the franchise is. Do they "owe" the fans a chance for Rod/Jeter/Granderson to get hot for two weeks in October? How will a selloff be seen by Bronx partisans? Will attendance crater if they do?

Do they owe the fans a chance to compete in 2014 and beyond? How is Boston's selloff in 2012 being viewed by Bronx partisans in 2013? Will fans not show up for Rivera's final games even if the team is doing poorly?

If they don't sell off, and the Red Sox make the playoffs in 2013 while the Yankees don't, there will be incessant chatter among Yankees fans to suggest the Yankees should have sold off in 2013 like Boston did in 2012*. And if the Yankees return in 2014 with largely the same roster** and the same problems, Yankees fans will expect the same results.

* Which they can't, because rubes like the Dodgers' new owners aren't in play this year. I suppose they could be fooled twice...

** Imagine the overpay they'd have to do with Cano and Granderson just to make that happen!

The Yankees are fourth in the league in run prevention, and fourth from the bottom in run scoring. That looks like a .500 team to me.

And their record is not far from .500. I don't think anyone is disputing what they have accomplished so far. What is being disputed is the projection from here on out.

The team has been getting progressively worse; they've been playing a 68-win pace for a month. Their divisional opponents are getting progressively better. I'm thinking at this point 92 wins gets the division, and the Yankees have to play at a 100-win pace to get there, starting now. There is nothing about the current makeup of the Yankees to suggest they can do that. Never mind that by the time they get their stars back they'll probably need to play at a 110-win pace to win the division. I'm also thinking that the 2nd WC will be in the 90-91 win range, so the pace isn't much different to make the playoffs.

The point is probably moot. I suspect Cashman lacks the backbone to pull the trigger. Nobody wants to be the guy who staged the Yankees Fire Sale™.

For single seasons, From 1998 to 2013, Played 50% of games at 1B, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=120 and Qualified for league batting title), sorted by greatest number of players matching criteria in a single season

How many 1Bs "qualify" for the batting title each year?

My "definition" of "starting 1Bs" is the 30 1Bs each year with the most PAs (by #30 you have a guy with around 350 PAs most years), the 15th % 16th guys in OPS+ are usually around 115-120

Well, at least we've made a partial progression in reality checking at this point, since that rotation been downgraded from "very good" to just "good" within the matter of a few short hours. (smile)

Well, the "very good" didn't come from me. But in fairness, the OP was referring to the whole pitching staff, not the rotation. Their pitching staff has a 106 ERA+, with an underperforming CC. Whether that qualifies "very good" or "good"... I'll let other people split those hairs. I'll stand by good rotation and great bullpen as my qualifiers.

To be fair I think the original poster said the "staff" not the rotation was very good- and the 2013 Yankees do have an outstanding Bullpen (it's really all that separates the 2013 Yankees from the Mets)

I put the "(smile)" in there for a reason, and I'm sorry if anyone took it to mean I was conflating the two different people making those comments. Right now I'd call it a mediocre to good rotation, with age/fragility issues in #1-3 and mediocrity issues in #4-6 that are likely to combine to downgrade the bullpen from "very good" to "very overworked" in the not too distant future. Bullpens are much more effective when everyone gets a certain amount of work within clearly defined roles, and if one of those roles (early middle relief) gets its gears stripped by overuse, you can easily wind up with a domino effect that brings about an overall diminution of the pen's effectiveness. It's a lot easier for an aging pitching staff to disintegrate than to gel, and I think we're likely to see evidence of that in the case of the Yankees as the season goes forward.

I don't think Granderson, as it stands right now, will cost anyone tremendous FA money. The BA in 2012, the washout in 2013, the declining skills afield (to the point that the Yankees probably won't let him play CF anymore).

At this time of year, I'm used to "but what position could the Yankees possibly upgrade?"

This year, that's asked and answered. Virtually every position other than second base could be upgraded, some massively. I have no idea if they will, but this particular issue is not a problem this year.

*EDIT*

I don't think it would be smart to acquire a DH. Jeter and Rod will likely require significant ABs there as they return, and it probably wouldn't be a good idea to clog up the position.

If they don't sell off, and the Red Sox make the playoffs in 2013 while the Yankees don't, there will be incessant chatter among Yankees fans to suggest the Yankees should have sold off in 2013 like Boston did in 2012*. And if the Yankees return in 2014 with largely the same roster** and the same problems, Yankees fans will expect the same results.

The Red Sox traded off a bunch of guys on large FA contracts, but still had a decent core of younger players to build around through free agency.

The Yankees core basically IS a bunch of old dudes on big contracts. There Isn't much to build around.

It will be interesting to see if the presence of the second wild card and the potential returns of Granderson and Rodriguez result in the Yankees believing they can again make the playoffs. June was a tough month, but if I were a Yankee fan, I'm not sure I would believe the window is closing.

Plus, the Sox have been missing the playoffs for a while, including a historic late season meltdown and the incredibly hideous Bobby V year. I'm thinking the Yankees are going to be pretty bad for a bit, but schadenfreude levels are low here.

It will be interesting to see if the presence of the second wild card and the potential returns of Granderson and Rodriguez result in the Yankees believing they can again make the playoffs.

If Cashman actually formed his roster strategy on that assumption, I'd like to see some Vinny make a phone call and talk him out of it. Fortunately I doubt if such a scenario will ever be in the slightest bit credible.

#119 It's really, really hard to buy a contending team from the best of what's available in any given year. Teams that have stayed good over the long run always had a solid core that they could add to.

#124 I make the team you mention something around a 90 OPS+. (I don't believe Adams and Romine are as bad as they've played YMMV but it's not a huge deal) That's awful.

But their pitching looks to me to be an eminently legit 106 ERA+. It's really hard to play .400 ball with above average pitching. I mean an 80 team OPS+ (tough to manage with Cano in the lineup) only gets the team down to .420 ball when combined with an ERA+ of 106. (Yeah this implies that they have an actual RS+ of 80 with an OPS+ of 80 and a RA+ of 106 with an ERA+ of 106. As simplifying assumptions go for this type of quick and dirty "analysis", well I think they're pretty reasonable)

Really bad teams are almost always bad at both run scoring and run prevention.

Some people above are making it sound like the Yanks need to do big FA deals to get back in the game. Granted 2014 is an odd year for them insofar as wanting to stay under the salary cap goes, but after that if they're willing to pay 15-20% more than other teams are willing to pay for solid, mid-level FAs (like, say, Beltran last time he was on the market, or a Daniel Murphy type when available, if they need a solid, 2 win 2Bman***), they should be just fine while in the longer process of bagging some big names.

Of course, they'll have to stop doing stupid #### like signing Ichiro to 2/13. It's heartening to see the Yankees put themselves into a position where the can't obviously blow $13 million on a dumbass, marquee signing without it costing them. I have a hunch Cashman and partcularly the Steinbrenners will not be up to the job.

#119 It's really, really hard to buy a contending team from the best of what's available in any given year. Teams that have stayed good over the long run always had a solid core that they could add to.

The Yankees probably have enough decent players under contract to be worth adding to. Btw, I'm not sure what a "solid core" is, other than some good players you control for several years. If they re-sign Cano and Kuroda keeps coming back, they have that.

1. If the Yankees choose not to sell off and rebuild, how desperate will they be to sign Cano?

I'm pretty sure, "Incredibly desperate" is the correct answer.

Is it possible they've learned something from the Rodriguez debacle? I suppose they might be able to negotiate a little more successfully this time around, not get eaten by their desperation, not bid against themselves, and just top the next highest bid by a few bucks. If Cano likes being in NY that probably gets it done.

2. If the Yankees are serious about getting under the cap, can they afford to sign Cano AND to augment their roster to a competitive level for 2014?

Well, they have 6 guys under contract for $84m, and a whole lot of guys they can offer arbitration to. If they want to get under the cap (MLBTradeRumors says it's looking like they won't) that gives them $105m to play with. I don't see why they couldn't field a competitive (85 wins or so) team for that in 2014.

I also don't see why they wouldn't take a one year hit, given the substantial penalties involved over multiple years if they don't get under the cap. It's not like they're rebuilding. More like a one year lull where they're building towards 2015.

I doubt fans will desert them in droves if they field only a slightly above average team (while pretending of course it's nothing of the sort) in 2014. A team on an 85 win pace through the year will appear to be in contention probably into September. I don't see fans not accepting that they have to get under the cap, particularly if they aren't gutting the team.

Condescension aside, Sabathia's career ERA is 3.53. His aforementioned ERA for the last 6 weeks is 4.92. The approximate midway point between those two numbers is 4.22. By the end of the season, where do you think he's going to wind up, closer to 3.53 or to 4.92? Since his overall 2013 ERA is 4.15, you're getting a running head start if you choose the under.

And BTW I'm not claiming to know the answer one way or the other. I'm only saying that neither do you, which is why I put my question in the form of....a question.

Zips(U) Updated does exactly this calculation for you - so you don't have to guess!

I'd be interested to know whether Zips includes age in calculating these 'to year end' projections. A 38 year old with a stretch with an ERA around 5 has to be closer to the end of his career (and less likely both to recover, and less likely to be given a chance to recover) than a 28 year old w the same numbers.