Liberal Leadership Race: Fight For Second Place May Be Only Suspense Left

When Liberals gather to hear the results of their leadership race on April 14, most of the suspense will be about who will finish second. (CP)

When Liberals gather to hear the results of their leadership race on April 14, most of the suspense will be about who will finish second.

While the runner-up position may not seem very important in a race that Justin Trudeau is expected to easily win, it will mean a lot to the three individuals who have the best chance of finishing second.

Hall Findlay has raised the most money after Trudeau at $179,000. That is by no means a paltry sum, but Trudeau’s campaign has raised more than $1 million, with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of donations still to be processed. Altogether, he has been responsible for more than two-thirds of all the money raised in the race so far.

Murray is not far behind Hall Findlay, having raised $169,000. Of the remaining contestants in the race, Cauchon is the only other to top six figures with $103,000 raised.

Money can be a good predictor of final outcomes in a leadership race, and that gives Hall Findlay a narrow advantage over her two main rivals.

Or does it?

Considering that Hall Findlay had raised most of her funds in 2012, her momentum has stalled. Murray, by contrast, has raised the majority of her donations over the last few months. Cauchon has also done all of his fundraising in 2013, as he only entered the race in January.

That would seem to give Murray the best shot at finishing second, and the number of contributors to her campaign backs that up. Her campaign has managed to raise money from 1,382 contributors. That puts her ahead of Hall Findlay, who has received donations from 1,023.

It is here that Cauchon’s bid for runner-up status falters, as he has received money from only 151 contributors (fewer than David Bertschi, who recently dropped out). It means Cauchon’s contributors have dug deeper, but he has not been able to convince as many people to donate to his campaign as Murray or Hall Findlay. That may matter more.

As each riding will be equally weighted, the outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Murray might have raised more money in 2013 and has more contributors, but her B.C. base has only 36 ridings, compared to the 75 in Quebec (Cauchon) and the 106 in Ontario (Hall Findlay).

However, as Joyce Murray is the only candidate running on a co-operation ticket, she should be able to pull support throughout the country. Being the only contestant arguing for an electoral pact with the NDP and Greens both boosts and limits her drawing power. It gathers all of the supporters of co-operation into her tent, but excludes those who do not see a future for the Liberals if they join up with the other opposition parties.

It also limits the potential personal gains that Murray could get by finishing second. Though she has impressed many Liberals with her performance in the campaign so far, her position may make it difficult to land an important role in the party’s future. Finishing second could mean more to Hall Findlay or Cauchon, who might use it as a springboard towards a political comeback. Unlike Murray, neither Hall Findlay nor Cauchon currently sit in the House of Commons. In the end, a future return to parliament would not be a bad consolation prize.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls and electoral projections.

Eleven-month-old Justin Trudeau, urged on by his mother Margaret Trudeau, crawls up the steps of an aircraft in Ottawa Dec. 5, 1972 to meet his father, then-prime minister, Pierre Trudeau on his return from Britain.

Pierre Trudeau is saluted by RCMP Officer as he carries son Justin to Rideau Hall in 1973. Justin Trudeau teared up when he was presented with a framed copy while visiting Loyalist College in 2013.

Alexandre (Sacha) Trudeau delivers a right hook to his older brother Justin during a play fight in 1980 at Ottawa airport as the boys await a flight with the return of their father, then-prime minister, Pierre Trudeau. Nobody was injured. Justin was born in 1971 and Sacha in 1973 - both on Christmas day.

It was a big day for Dad, but a long day for the three Trudeau children. Left to right, Justin, Michel and Alexandre (Sacha) Trudeau attended the swearing in ceremonies of their father Pierre Elliott Trudeau as Prime Minister March 3, 1980 at Government House.

Then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau, left, watches as his 11-year-old son Justin swings on a chain during a tour of an old fort in the Omani town of Nizwa Dec. 2, 1983. Trudeau and Justin spent the day visiting the towns of Jebel and Nizwa 165 kilometres south of Muscat.

Then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau's 11-year-old son Justin jumps off an old cannon while visiting a fort along with his father in the Omani town of Nizwa and Jebel.

Justin Trudeau and friend Mathieu Walker in the Sahara desert in October, 1994.

Justin Trudeau and friend Mathieu Walker in the Sahara desert in October, 1994.

Justin Trudeau with friends Mathieu Walker and Allen Steverman in Shanghai in 1994.

Justin Trudeau with friends Mathieu Walker (left) and Allen Steverman (centre) at the Great Wall of China in 1994.

Former prime minister Pierre Trudeau (L), his son, Alexandre (Sacha), ex-wife Margaret Kemper and son Justin weep as they leave a memorial service for their son Michel in Montreal in 1998. Michel Trudeau drowned after being swept into a lake during an avalanche in British Columbia.

Justin (left) and Alexandre (Sacha) Trudeau lean out of the funeral train to show appreciation to mourners who turned out to pay their respects to former prime minister Pierre Trudeau in Dorval, Que., Monday Oct. 2, 2000. Trudeau's casket was moved from Ottawa to Montreal for a state funeral. ()

Justin Trudeau is consoled by his mother Margaret after reading the eulogy for his father, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau during his state funeral in Montreal, Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2000.

Justin Trudeau delivers a eulogy for his late father Pierre Trudeau during the state funeral for the former prime minister at the Notre-Dame Basilica in Montreal, Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2000. Trudeau first caught the public heartstrings in October 2000, when he delivered a moving, deeply felt eulogy for his legendary father, weaving an emotional spell from inside the cavernous Notre-Dame Basilica in Montreal.

Justin Trudeau breaks down on his father's casket after reading the eulogy during the state funeral for former prime minister Pierre Trudeau Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2000 in Montreal.

Justin Trudeau gives a rose to a young girl, one of thousands of mourners who stood outside Notre-Dame Basillica in Montreal Tuesday, October 3, 2000 during a state funeral for his father, former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

An enthusiastic Justin Trudeau talks to reporters during a news conference to promote avalanche awareness in West Vancouver Thursday Jan. 25, 2001.

Justin Trudeau stands at the base of a mountain near the evidence of a controlled avalanche at Lake Louise, Alberta, Friday January 12, 2002.

Trudeau with adviser and friend Gerald Butts in July 2003 at Virginia Falls, Nahanni National Park Reserve in the Northwest Territories.

Justin Trudeau carves through a gate during a celebrity slalom race in Mont Tremblant, Que. Friday, Dec. 12, 2003. Trudeau was taking part in a 24-hour ski-a-thon for charity organized by Jacques Villeneuve and Villeneuve's manager Craig Pollock.

Justin Trudeau spoke to students as Sisler High School about the benefits of joining the Katimavik Project on March 9, 2004

Justin Trudeau, son of the late prime minister Pierre Trudeau, leaves with his new bride Sophie Gregoire in his father's 1959 Mercedes 300 SEL after their marriage ceremony in Montreal Saturday, May 28, 2005.

Sophie Gregoire waves to the crowd as she arrives for her wedding to Justin Trudeau, son of the late prime minister Pierre Trudeau, in Montreal Saturday, May 28, 2005.

Then-leadership candidate Stéphane Dion crosses paths with Justin Trudeau, a supporter of Gerard Kennedy, at the Liberal Leadership Convention on Nov. 30, 2006 in Montreal. The day after he won the leadership, Dion told Trudeau he needed his help and urged him to run.

Justin Trudeau poses in London, Ont., on Tuesday, June 5, 2007 with a group of youth who participated in the Katimavik national youth service program that he has been actively involved in. The funny faces came from a request by a parent taking a photograph.

Justin Trudeau raises his arms in victory after being voted in as the Liberal representative in Montreal's Papineau riding, on April 29, 2007.

Justin Trudeau, then Liberal candidate for the riding of Papineau, on the campaign trail with his mother, Margaret, in Montreal on Sept. 23, 2008. Trudeau snatched the riding from the Bloc Québécois by 1,189 votes.

Liberal Justin Trudeau, then a candidate in the riding of Papineau, on the campaign trail in Montreal, Tuesday Sept. 23, 2008 with his mother, Margaret.

Liberal MP Justin Trudeau trims the end of Senator Patrick Brazeau's pony tail out of respect in the Foyer of the House of Commons on Parliament Hill Ottawa, Monday April 2, 2012.

Liberal MP Justin Trudeau announces he will seek the leadership of the party at a news conference, Tuesday, October 2, 2012 in Montreal.

Liberal MP Justin Trudeau waves to the crowd of supporters as he holds his son Xavier and his wife Sophie Gregoire holds their daughter Ella-Grace after announcing he will seek the leadership of the party Tuesday, October 2, 2012 in Montreal.

Justin Trudeau, right, chats to his chief advisor Gerald Butts after taking part in the the Liberal leadership debate in Mississauga, Ont., on Saturday, February 16, 2013.

Marc Garneau, left, and Justin Trudeau take part in the Liberal leadership debate in Mississauga, Ont., on Feb. 16, 2013.