Support for Mbeki dives after Aids controversy

South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, has suffered a large and sudden fall in public support almost certainly attributable to his controversial stance on the cause of Aids.

Mr Mbeki's approval rating has dropped to a fraction above 50% from more than 70% in May, according to an opinion poll released today by the most credible of South Africa's polling organisations, the Institute for Democracy (Idasa).

The results are a significant blow to Mr Mbeki's leadership because support for the ruling African National Congress as a whole has stood up with 69% of black voters saying they will back the party in December's important elections in the vast new megacities created around Johannesburg, Pretoria and Cape Town.

When compared to his predecessor's standing, Mr Mbeki's position is even more stark. Nelson Mandela had an 85% approval rating just before he left office last year.

"There is no doubt that this is a wake-up call for Mbeki and his government," said Richard Calland, the head of political programmes at Idasa. "The survey as a whole shows a decline in people's confidence in representative institutions. It is as if people feel they are not being listened to enough."

As recently as July, two-thirds of South Africans approved of their president's performance. The decline in support has coincided with the public airing of Mr Mbeki's controversial questioning of the link between HIV and Aids, and his association with a minority of scientists who say there is no connection between the virus and the disease.

The government has refused to supply anti-Aids drugs to public hospitals after initially saying they were unproven and toxic but then, after a barrage of criticism, saying it could not afford them.

About 62% of South Africans do not have confidence in the government's attempts to prevent the spread of Aids - an issue that will be the single most important of Mr Mbeki's presidency and likely to devastate the population.

One in 10 South Africans is HIV-positive and the country has among the highest infection rates in the world.

In an attempt to recover public support, Mr Mbeki last week withdrew from the public debate over Aids and handed responsibility for justifying the government's policies on the disease to a committee led by his equally controversial health minister.

The poll's findings are likely to provide ammunition to those within the ANC unhappy with Mr Mbeki. The party is divided over a number of issues, particularly the Aids controversy. But there are also broad philosophical differences over the role of government in South Africa.

Mr Mbeki's administration has argued that it is not its role to be overly interventionist, particularly in the economy. But the man who was once Mr Mbeki's main rival to lead the ANC, Cyril Ramaphosa, this week chastised the government by saying that the only reason it was elected was to be interventionist and transform South Africa.

Mr Ramaphosa's stance will be reinforced by the poll's finding that just 28% of those polled had confidence in Mr Mbeki's economic policies. But, given that the economy has been facing difficulties for some time, it is unlikely that is the major cause of his sudden loss of support.

Among the poll's findings was the revelation that Mr Mbeki is less trusted among his core constituency than the independent press he and his allies so frequently criticise as anti-black. Just 48% of black South Africans say they trust the president, while 60% have confidence in the press.