He sees Yahoo’s stock going to $22 if they continue with “business as usual” and don’t find a partner. This is 45% likely, he says. He gives a 40% chance that Yahoo pursues a major strategic alternative such as a Google outsourcing, partnership with AOL or MySpace, stock buyback, sale of Asian assets, etc. A Google outsourcing deal brings $1 billion of more in increased cash flow and adds $6 to Yahoo’s stock, he says.

He’s also saying that an eventual combination with Microsoft is still 15% likely. Microsoft may come back to the table, he says, because “there is No Plan B to succeed on the Internet” (I agree). The weighted average is a $26 stock price. Yahoo is currently (noon PST) trading at $24, down about 15% from Friday. It started the day down 20%.

Mahaney’s full chart is below. I’ve also added his top level analysis of a Google outsourcing deal. Search revenue would grow from $1.6 billion to $2.7 billion (moving from 4 cents a click to 7 cents).

Compare Mahaney’s $26 price guess to the Fred Wilson’s informal crowdsourcing approach, which came in at $22. If the markets stay steady, the real price is nearly exactly the mid point between the two.

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OverviewGoogle is a multinational corporation that is specialized in internet-related services and products. The company’s product portfolio includes Google Search, which provides users with access to information online; Knowledge Graph that allows to search for things, people, or places as well as builds systems recognizing speech and understanding natural language; Google Now, which provides information …

OverviewMicrosoft is an American multinational corporation that develops, manufactures, licenses, supports and sells computer software, consumer electronics and personal computers and services. Its best known software products are the Microsoft Windows line of operating systems, Microsoft Office office suite, and Internet Explorer web browser. Its flagship hardware products are Xbox game console and the Microsoft …