The Russia Investigations: After Flynn Plea Deal, Where Does Mueller Aim Next?

Saturday, 2 December 2017

Analysis: Despite Flynn's guilty plea, Trump presidency not over yet

With
a guilty plea and reports that former US national security adviser Michael
Flynn is cooperating, the investigation into Russian election meddling has
picked up pace.

The
guilty plea of former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who on Friday admitted to making false statements to the
FBI about his contacts with Russia, is very significant.

First, in Flynn, not only has a member of US President
Donald Trump's campaign team been charged but also a former high-ranking
official in the administration.

Second, despite the White House downplaying the charges
by saying that Flynn was only in the administration for a short time, he was
one of the most important foreign policy advisers, if not the most important,
to the future president during the election campaign. Trump's high esteem for Flynn
led him to be appointed national security adviser, a position that doesn't
require congressional approval, against the advice of many experts.

Third, Flynn's guilty plea
is a clear indication that he has provided important information to Special
Counsel Robert Mueller, who will be able to use that information to prepare
investigations and charges against more significant figures.

"That's the real story here. That he agreed to
cooperate in exchange for favorable treatment from Mueller," said
Jimmy Gurulé, a former assistant attorney general at the Justice Department and
a law professor at the University of Notre Dame.

"You don't enter into a plea agreement unless the
prosecutor has determined and independently corroborated that the potential
witness has substantial, credible and reliable evidence that would implicate
higher ups in the criminal enterprise in unlawful activity."

According to Brandon
Garrett, a law professor at the University of Virginia, Flynn has likely
already given up valuable information to investigators.

"A plea deal would only have been offered once
there was real cooperation," he said.

Lisa Kern Griffin, a criminal law scholar at Duke
University, noted that Flynn appears to have gotten off lightly, although
further charges are still possible.

Making false statements to the FBI is a felony that
carries a prison sentence of up to five years. But under the deal with Mueller,
Flynn can expect only six to 12 months in prison, or possibly a suspended
sentence, Griffin said.

That's almost nothing, she added, compared to what the
public record of Flynn's activities suggests, which could have led to multiple
charges.

In addition, no charges have been brought against
Flynn's son, who according to media reports was in Mueller's sights over an
alleged plot to kidnap US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen, who is wanted by the
Turkish government over last year's failed coup attempt.

Since Mueller's strategy
is to work his way up to "big fish" through indictments and
deals with "small fish," the net around potential targets will
now become smaller. After all, as former national security adviser, Flynn
was already fairly high up in the White House hierarchy.

For legal experts, there are only a few people in
Mueller's sights, and high on this short list stands Jared Kushner, Trump's
son-in-law and senior White House adviser.

"There were a number
of ways during the campaign that Michael Flynn and Jared Kushner were working
together and at a minimum I suspect that Michael Flynn has damaging information
to offer about Jared Kushner," Griffin said.

According to US media reports, Kushner is the
"very senior member" of the Trump transition team who directed Flynn
to make contact with former Russian
ambassador Sergey Kislyak in 2016.

Trump's son could also be targeted by Mueller, noted
Gurulé. "To me the other potential target is Donald Trump Jr. There
is reason to believe that he is being targeted based on this June [2016]
meeting in the Trump Tower,
where he appears to be excited over the possibility of Russian dirt on
Hillary Clinton," he said.

Although many Trump critics — on social media and
elsewhere — may be tempted to see Flynn's plea deal as the beginning of
the end for the president, it's still premature to conclude whether or not
Flynn may implicate others in Trump's inner circle.

For legal experts, this is
only a step, even if a significant step, in the long process of Mueller's
investigation. Certainly, it's true that the charges have been getting ever
closer to the president. But Trump has, so far, never directly been under
investigation. And it remains constitutionally questionable whether a
sitting president can even be charged.

Griffin thinks it's
unrealistic to assume Trump will soon be leaving office — at
least at this point in time. She believes the question over Trump's future
will likely not to be answered legally, but rather politically in next
year's midterm elections.