First informal exit polls by foreign news agencies seem to show Hollande at 52-53%. Polling stations close in 50 minutes.

Looks like there will be at least 70% turnout, with estimates of around 82% once all votes are cast. I like that about the French, they take their elections seriously.

I can't comment on the first part until 20:00 local time (the fine, remember?), but I can guarantee that the Presidential election is dead serious out here. The participation is not as good as 2007, but better than all the previous elections. Goos thing for the democracy, and a good start for the legitimacy of the winner, whoever that may be.

I'm not at all familiar with French politics, but the ad doesn't seem to convey any informational value. Contrasting this with Obama's "Forward" ad, for example, I find the latter significantly more informative to potential voters.

Most of the campaign was indeed based on the same motto for all candidates: "Everything but Sarko." I hope we will all get beyond that after the election cycle is over.

The entire Sarkozy strategy was to get closer to the Front National ideas to steal their voters. Unfortunately for him, he hadn't realized that he had crystallized so much hatred against his personality and actions. So he lead his party and majority to dangerous political lands, and it's possible that everyone on his side get lost. Now that he's out, we'll see who takes the lead for the Legislative election. But it won't be pretty.

What I find amusing is that the Wall Street types were horrified at the prospect of a Socialist winning the presidency of France, as if that automatically means France becomes the next EU country to fall into fiscal limbo.

Anglo Americans (The Economist crowd) have been chastising the Continent for "socialistic" govt. programs for decades. But the problems in France are due in part to the fact that the big French banks played the same derivatives game as the most hardcore Wall Street and The City institutions. In other words, engaging in the same kind of "capitalisme sauvage" that they used to attribute to the Anglo-Americans.

Speeding French withdrawal from the Afghan debacle is pure good, and more "complex" relations with the US are also good. Europe has no remaining military enemies, and anything which makes it more difficult to piss away US resources on Global Love Enforcement is fine with me.

Too bad France isn't withdrawing from NATO. NATO is a waste of US money now the Cold War is over, though defending Europeans was much more enjoyable than meddling with our Muslim enemies.

So why the hate for Sarkozy? He always seemed capable and able to do what was best. Do the French people not like the austerity and work done with the Germans?

Ok, imagine having an annoying micro-managing boss, now imagine him being hyper-active and narcissistic. Now add a side of Bling-Bling.

The nepotism is a cherry on top.

That's Sarkozy.

Even when he was right, or did the right things he was annoying.

Compared to all previous presidents he was also present on the media all. the. time. So much actually that there was a campaign going on the create an annual "No Sarkozy Day" with no interventions on the media from him to get some rest from his undignified presence.

So why the hate for Sarkozy? He always seemed capable and able to do what was best. Do the French people not like the austerity and work done with the Germans?

Ok, imagine having an annoying micro-managing boss, now imagine him being hyper-active and narcissistic. Now add a side of Bling-Bling.

The nepotism is a cherry on top.

That's Sarkozy.

Even when he was right, or did the right things he was annoying.

Compared to all previous presidents he was also present on the media all. the. time. So much actually that there was a campaign going on the create an annual "No Sarkozy Day" with no interventions on the media from him to get some rest from his undignified presence.

Ah. So is it overwhelmingly positive Holande won? What are people saying?

I'm not at all familiar with French politics, but the ad doesn't seem to convey any informational value. Contrasting this with Obama's "Forward" ad, for example, I find the latter significantly more informative to potential voters.

I'm not at all familiar with French politics, but the ad doesn't seem to convey any informational value. Contrasting this with Obama's "Forward" ad, for example, I find the latter significantly more informative to potential voters.

It isn't necessary that every political ad "convey informational value". Sometimes an ad's purpose can simply be to generate enthusiasm for a candidate, to drive voter turnout on election day(s).

So why the hate for Sarkozy? He always seemed capable and able to do what was best. Do the French people not like the austerity and work done with the Germans?

Ok, imagine having an annoying micro-managing boss, now imagine him being hyper-active and narcissistic. Now add a side of Bling-Bling.

The nepotism is a cherry on top.

That's Sarkozy.

Even when he was right, or did the right things he was annoying.

Compared to all previous presidents he was also present on the media all. the. time. So much actually that there was a campaign going on the create an annual "No Sarkozy Day" with no interventions on the media from him to get some rest from his undignified presence.

Well, I guess this means no more fluff stories on what Carla is wearing for the week, or if she is gaining too much weight ect...ect...

Ok, imagine having an annoying micro-managing boss, now imagine him being hyper-active and narcissistic. Now add a side of Bling-Bling.

The nepotism is a cherry on top.

That's Sarkozy.

Even when he was right, or did the right things he was annoying.

Compared to all previous presidents he was also present on the media all. the. time. So much actually that there was a campaign going on the create an annual "No Sarkozy Day" with no interventions on the media from him to get some rest from his undignified presence.

Ah. So is it overwhelmingly positive Holande won? What are people saying?

I will miss the way NPR says Sarkozy.

First of all great summary of Sarkozy by Reefab! Totally true.

The presidential race is all abount personalities, and quite frankly Sarkozy has an utterly vile personality. Hollande appears to have a much nicer well rounded personality. He is quite the opposite of the abbrasive and aggressive ass that is Sarkozy.

In terms of policy, one can actually only hope that Holland won't have a lot of success. His current platform is a host of nearly a centry old and failed socialist policies. He appears to follow a policy of even more French introversion than it is currently the case. And France in general is pretty oblivious of what is happening outside of its borders...

What I find amusing is that the Wall Street types were horrified at the prospect of a Socialist winning the presidency of France, as if that automatically means France becomes the next EU country to fall into fiscal limbo.

Anglo Americans (The Economist crowd) have been chastising the Continent for "socialistic" govt. programs for decades. But the problems in France are due in part to the fact that the big French banks played the same derivatives game as the most hardcore Wall Street and The City institutions. In other words, engaging in the same kind of "capitalisme sauvage" that they used to attribute to the Anglo-Americans.

Not really. You have to understand that in the mind of French, Europe = France. In the eyes of the French, what ever France wants translates directly into the interests of Europe. This wish for hegemony is contrasted starkly to the economic/political reality of Europe, where France is lingering at the sidelines. It can only achieve to be even listended to if it manages to woo Germany to its side. Something that has been happening less and less.

Since this is not accpetable to the psych of the French, they have been trying to build a shadow EU comprising of mediterranian countries where France would be the undisputed hegemon. This political wish translated into direct political pressure/outright steering of French banks to invested a lot and to take irresponsible risks in the mediteranien countries. That is now biting their ass.

The failure of French banks is a direct consequence of the typical style of the French command economy. And this is generally France's economic problem for the past decades. Outside of Government/Staate declared champions, there is very little corporate activity in France. And this trend appears to become even worse under Hollande.

The presidential race is all abount personalities, and quite frankly Sarkozy has an utterly vile personality. Hollande appears to have a much nicer well rounded personality. He is quite the opposite of the abbrasive and aggressive ass that is Sarkozy.

Which is curious, considering that after reading the post-election coverage of derstandard the picture painted of Hollande is that of a correct but rather pale politician who wins by perseverance and patience; not by strength of personality or visionary ideas.But then again, maybe this combination of attributes is the winning horse when your opponent pursues an aggressive but ultimately misguided media strategy.

Though i have to say that lack of own ideas is not a trait i find desirable in a politician, let alone a French president.

Ouch, seems the markets are not too receptive to his plans of increased spending, increased taxes and increased regulation; nice guy or not. Everybody's pension plans just went down a percent or two. Ratings outlook change on the dwindling chance of any kind of balanced budget in 3...2...

Ouch, seems the markets are not too receptive to his plans of increased spending, increased taxes and increased regulation; nice guy or not. Everybody's pension plans just went down a percent or two. Ratings outlook change on the dwindling chance of any kind of balanced budget in 3...2...

Ouch, seems the markets are not too receptive to his plans of increased spending, increased taxes and increased regulation; nice guy or not. Everybody's pension plans just went down a percent or two. Ratings outlook change on the dwindling chance of any kind of balanced budget in 3...2...

Fun times in France. How long do terms last.

The market just don't understand his brilliant plans - retirement age back down to 60, only 35 work hours per week, more jobs, more equality and a balanced budget - it's all possible, no structural reforms necessary. All you have to do is to increase the top tax bracket to 75 percent. Just wait and see.

Well, at least Hollande said he'd turn off that old decrepit nuclear power plant that's sitting 20 miles from my home in an earthquake prone area, so he gets five bonus points for that from me.

The market just don't understand his brilliant plans - retirement age back down to 60, only 35 work hours per week, more jobs, more equality and a balanced budget - it's all possible, no structural reforms necessary. All you have to do is to increase the top tax bracket to 75 percent. Just wait and see.

Well, at least Hollande said he'd turn off that old decrepit nuclear power plant that's sitting 20 miles from my home in an earthquake prone area, so he gets five bonus points for that from me.

Hollande wants to pick many fights, and on his list of things to do during the first 100 days, nuclear is of such a low priority that it doesn't even enter this list. Quite frankly, I see nuclear as one of the lowest priorities on his list of things to do. Talk is cheap, and his cheap talk on nuclear secured him the pivotal 2% of votes to get into office from the Green-Communists.

And that is all.

Much more interesting is the following election for Parliament in June. Sarkozy's party has a very comfortable 55% majority there (the entire left-extremist spectrum has 35%); Hollande's hands are effectively tied until then, and even after those elections, I doubt that the extreme left will gain more traction in Parliament.

That was part of the right's propaganda. The socialist party has written that it would keep most of Sarkozy's retirement pensions reform, except for people who began to work at the age of 18 or below.

Which is basically everybody who doesn't go to a university.Anyway, it doesn't change the main point - France is a country that's in a pretty difficult economic situation and affords itself some luxuries (like retirement age of 60-62, 35 hour work week, huge administration etc.) yet the guy who just got elected claims that there's basically no need for any painful structural changes, just raise the taxes for the top 0.5% and all will be fine.

If that means manual labor and people who work on their feet, I'd say that's eminently reasonable. At least in the US, life expectancy has risen much more for office workers.

Avg life expectancy in France is currently around 81 years. About 30% of the working population in France has a university degree. Do you really think the other 70% have such a low life expectancy that they need to retire at 60?

Don't the Scandinavian countries have just as generous govt. benefits? Germany is very generous compared to the US too. So the socialist programs don't necessarily kill economic growth.

As far as the French banks taking risks, I was referring to a Frontline documentary which indicated the French banks played in all the CDS games as all the other banks, not so much them investing in the Mediterranean countries.

Interesting notes about Sarkozy. Wasn't he seen as somewhat of a sad sack, having to try to get his wife back for his first run? But then ended up with Carla, which made him glamourous in some circles.

Don't the Scandinavian countries have just as generous govt. benefits? Germany is very generous compared to the US too. So the socialist programs don't necessarily kill economic growth.

Nobody's arguing that benefits are bad per se. But a country needs to be able to afford them.Scandinavia had to go through a restructuring phase in the late 80s / 90s, Germany had to go through some reforms around 2003-2005. Right now, France looks like some reform might be necessary. Which makes it all the more astonishing (and frustrating, considering that because of the Euro we're ultimately all sitting in the same boat) that they elected a "we don't have to change anything"-president.

If that means manual labor and people who work on their feet, I'd say that's eminently reasonable. At least in the US, life expectancy has risen much more for office workers.

Avg life expectancy in France is currently around 81 years. About 30% of the working population in France has a university degree. Do you really think the other 70% have such a low life expectancy that they need to retire at 60?

If that means manual labor and people who work on their feet, I'd say that's eminently reasonable. At least in the US, life expectancy has risen much more for office workers.

Avg life expectancy in France is currently around 81 years. About 30% of the working population in France has a university degree. Do you really think the other 70% have such a low life expectancy that they need to retire at 60?

Years of life remaining for male workers at age 50 by occupation...Managers and professionals: 32.2 yearsManual laborers: 27.4 years

Years of healthy life remaining for male workers at age 50 by occupation...Managers and professionals: 22.8 yearsManual laborers: 13.7 years

It depends on what the rest do.

It's hard to blame the French for eschewing the work 'til you die retirement plan that so many Americans now enjoy... We also get the fall through the cracks of medical care & die before you can collect Medicare plan, too... I don't think they have that one...

It'll be interesting, anyway. One thing's for sure- German demands for austerity simply won't work, so there's got to be another way.

Ouch, seems the markets are not too receptive to his plans of increased spending, increased taxes and increased regulation; nice guy or not. Everybody's pension plans just went down a percent or two. Ratings outlook change on the dwindling chance of any kind of balanced budget in 3...2...

I don't think the markets are reacting to the French election. Hollande was expected to win the election for months. I think it is rather the Greek elections that rattled the markets.

I think if I were Germany right now, I would go back to the DM and let all these Euro deadbeat countries find their own way. They would 'only' have to recapitalize their own banks (when these other countries implode) rather than trying to recapitalize/support all these deadbeat countries who can't balance books and just want to borrow their way to prosperity on the back of cheap euro rates that primarily exist only because of the Germans.

They would 'only' have to recapitalize their own banks (when these other countries implode) rather than trying to recapitalize/support all these deadbeat countries who can't balance books and just want to borrow their way to prosperity on the back of cheap euro rates that primarily exist only because of the Germans.

And the economic consequences of "these other countries imploding" on Germany would be....?

I think if I were Germany right now, I would go back to the DM and let all these Euro deadbeat countries find their own way. They would 'only' have to recapitalize their own banks (when these other countries implode) rather than trying to recapitalize/support all these deadbeat countries who can't balance books and just want to borrow their way to prosperity on the back of cheap euro rates that primarily exist only because of the Germans.

Actually, this is probably the best outcome for the Eurozone - but not for the reasons you postulate. Germany leaving would lead to a dramatic fall in the value of the remaining Euro. Therefore the adjustment in the living standards and real incomes of countries could happen through falls in the value of currency, not nominal cuts.

It would be a shit show for sure - but the least impact of said shitshow would be on the Germans. I mean, if we are all on the Titanic, its a bad outcome...but if you can be the guy on a lifeboat you are still gonna be better off in the end.

Germany is quasi subsidizing the rest of the zone - who all want to go out and have retirement ages reduced, huge bloated government spending programs etc etc and all were dying to get into the zone in the first place but now don't want to play by the rules that would have made it viable in the long term.

Therefore the adjustment in the living standards and real incomes of countries could happen through falls in the value of currency, not nominal cuts.

But is that really better?

I mean the end result is the same, isn't it?Instead of Greece's lifestyle moving down to what their economy can finance via controlled cuts Greece's lifestyle would be moving down to what their economy can finance via monetary devaluation...

I never understood why this is supposed to be better for the Greeks... I seriously doubt the Greeks would somehow not riot if they suddenly find themselves with a currency that they can't buy anything produced abroad with...