Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas. Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km2 and average size of 0.06 km2 in the Koshi basin. Of these, 47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km2 in 1977 to 127.61 km2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size (≤ 0.1 km2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92 km2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas (in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas (in Nepal). Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period (1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOFRead More

Coseismic avalanches and rockfalls, as well as their simultaneous air blast and muddy flow, which were induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, destroyed the village of Langtang. In order to reveal volume and structure of the deposit covering the village, as well as sequence of the multiple events, we conducted an intensive in situ observation in October 2015. Multitemporal digital elevation models created from photographs taken by helicopter and unmanned aerial vehicles reveal that the deposit volumes of the primary and succeeding events were 6.81 ± 1.54 × 106 and 0.84 ± 0.92 × 106 m3, respectively. Visual investigations of the deposit and witness statements of villagers suggest that the primary event was an avalanche composed mostly of snow, while the collapsed glacier ice could not be dominant source for the total mass. Succeeding events were multiple rockfalls which may have been triggered by aftershocks. From the initial deposit volume and the area of the upper catchment, we estimate an average snow depth of 1.82 ± 0.46 m in the source area. This is consistent with anomalously large snow depths (1.28–1.52 m) observed at a neighboring glacier (4800–5100 m a.s.l.), which accumulated over the course of four major snowfall events between October 2014 and the earthquake on 25 April 2015. Considering long-term observational data, probability density functions, and elevation gradients of precipitation, we conclude that this anomalous winter snow was an extreme event with a return interval of at least 100 years. The anomalous winter snowfall may have amplified the disastrous effects induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in NepalRead More

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region being seismically active and sensitive to climate change is prone to glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The Lemthang Tsho GLOF breached in the evening of 28 July 2015 innorth-western Bhutan is reminds of the looming threat, and stresses the need to have good risk management plan. The need to understand the physical processes in generating GLOF to is therefore imperative in order to effectively manage the associated risk. The paper therefore assesses the cause and impact of the Lemthang Tsho GLOF event using field and remote sensing dataRead More

The cryosphere reacts sensitively to climate change, as evidenced by the widespread retreat of mountain glaciers. Subsurface ice contained in permafrost is similarly affected by climate change, causing persistent impacts on natural and human systems. In contrast to glaciers, permafrost is not observable spatially and therefore its presence and possible changes are frequently overlooked. Correspondingly, little is known about permafrost in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, despite permafrost area exceeding that of glaciers in nearly all countries. Based on evidence and insight gained mostly in other permafrost areas globally, this review provides a synopsis on what is known or can be inferred about permafrost in the mountains of the HKH region. Given the extreme nature of the environment concerned, it is to be expected that the diversity of conditions and phenomena encountered in permafrost exceed what has previously been described and investigated. We further argue that climate change in concert with increasing development will bring about diverse permafrost-related impacts on vegetation, water quality, geohazards, and livelihoods. To better anticipate and mitigate these effects, a deepened understanding of high-elevation permafrost in subtropical latitudes as well as the pathways interconnecting environmental changes and human livelihoods are neededRead More

Previous geodetic estimates of mass changes in the Karakoram revealed balanced budgets or a possible slight mass gain since ∼ 2000. Indications of longer-term stability exist but only very few mass budget analyses are available before 2000. Here, based on 1973 Hexagon KH-9, ∼ 2009 ASTER and the SRTM DTM, we show that glaciers in the Hunza River basin (central Karakoram) were on average in balance or showed slight insignificant mass loss within the period ∼ 1973–2009. Heterogeneous behaviour and frequent surge activities were also characteristic of the period before 2000. Surge-type and non-surge-type glaciers showed on average no significantly different mass change values. However, some individual glacier mass change rates differed significantly for the periods before and after ∼ 2000Read More

Snow governs interaction between atmospheric and land surface processes in high mountains, and is also source of fresh water. It is thus important to both climate scientists and local communities. However, our understanding of snow cover dynamics in terms of space and time is limited across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, which is known to be a climatically sensitive region. We used MODIS snow cover area (SCA) data (2003–2012), APHRODITE temperature data (2000–2007), and monthly long term in-situ river discharge data of the Gandaki (1968–2010), Koshi (1977–2010) and Manas (1987–2004) basins to analyse variations among four basins. We gained insights into short term SCA and temperature, long term discharge trends, and regional variability thereby. Strong correlations were observed among SCA, temperature and discharge thereby highlighting the strong nexus between them. Temporal and spatial snow cover variability across the basins is strongly coupled with the variability of two weather systems: Western Disturbances (WD) and Indian Monsoon System (IMS), and strongly influenced by topography. Manifestation of these variability in terms if downstream discharge can have repercussion to water based sectors: hydropower and agriculture, as low flow seasons is seen affected. This study adds to our knowledge of snow fall and melt dynamics in the HKH region, and intra-annual snow melt contributions to downstream discharges. The study is limited by short span of data and it is desirable to perform a similar study using data representing a much longer time spanRead More

Glacier responses to future climate change will affect hydrology at sub-basin scales. The main goal of this study is to assess glaciological and hydrological sensitivities of sub-basins throughout the Hindu Kush–Himalaya region. We use a simple geometrical analysis based on a full glacier inventory and digital elevation model to estimate sub-basin equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) from assumptions of steady-state accumulation area ratios. The ELA response to an increase in temperature is expressed as a function of mean annual precipitation, derived from a range of high-altitude studies. Changes in glacier contributions to streamflow in response to increased temperatures are examined for scenarios of both static and adjusted glacier geometries. On average, glacier contributions to streamflow increase by ~50% for a +1 K warming based on a static geometry. Large decreases (–60% on average) occur in all basins when glacier geometries are instantaneously adjusted to reflect the new ELA. Finally, we provide estimates of sub-basin glacier response times that suggest a majority of basins will experience declining glacier contributions by 2100Read More

Meteorological observations at high elevations in mountainous regions are often lacking. One opportunity to fill this data gap is through the use of downscaled output from weather reanalysis models. In this study, we tested the accuracy of downscaled output from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) against high-elevation surface observations at four ridgetop locations in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. NARR model output was downscaled to the surface observation locations through three-dimensional interpolation for air temperature, vapour pressure and wind speed and two-dimensional interpolation for radiation variables. Accuracy was tested at both the 3-hourly and daily time scales. Air temperature displayed a high level of agreement, especially at the daily scale, with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 0.98 to 1.21 °C across all sites. Vapour pressure downscaling accuracy was also quite high (RMSE of 0.06 to 0.11 hPa) but displayed some site specific bias. Although NARR overestimated wind speed, there were moderate to strong linear relations (r2 from 0.38 to 0.84 for daily means), suggesting that the NARR output could be used as an index and bias-corrected. NARR output reproduced the seasonal cycle for incoming short-wave radiation, with Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies ranging from 0.78 to 0.87, but accuracy suffered on days with cloud cover, resulting in a positive bias and RMSE ranged from 42 to 46 Wm− 2. Although fewer data were available, incoming long-wave radiation from NARR had an RMSE of 19 Wm− 2 and outperformed common methods for estimating incoming long-wave radiation. NARR air temperature showed potential to assist in hydrologic analysis and modelling during an atmospheric river storm event, which are characterized by warm and wet air masses with atypical vertical temperature gradients. The incorporation of a synthetic NARR air temperature station to better represent the higher freezing levels resulted in increased predicted peak flows, which better match the observed run-off during the eventRead More