An eight-man boat represents one shot at a medal for Rowing Canada while a heavyweight four and quad sculls — let’s do the math here … waiting, waiting, ah yes, here we go — gives the Maple Leaf two shots at a medal.

Given that the men’s program lacked the athletes to fill all the seats in an eight, a four and a quad, didn’t it make sense to send two boats to Rio and double the odds?

“If you chose to do the eight, it pretty much swallows everything up,” says Martin McElroy, the head coach of the men’s national team.

“Strategically I can understand that decision, and my brief was to work with that model.”

Yes, it’s hard to argue with that line of reasoning. The problem for Rowing Canada, however, is the decision to suspend the eight-man program for Rio isn’t only about basic arithmetic.

It’s about a rich and proud national tradition in the eights which produced a silver in London four years ago and gold in Beijing and Barcelona. It’s about a core group of rowers who won silver in London who suddenly had to pick up a new discipline.

And it’s about a program which let go of Mike Spracklen, the elfin mastermind of so many medals for Canada in the water, including the silver in London.

This relatively simple decision, in fact, has created a layer of complexity for Rowing Canada as they prepare for the Rio games. On Tuesday, the Olympic team was announced in Toronto and high-performance director Peter Cookson believes three or four medals isn’t out of the questions for Canada’s rowers.

Others aren’t as convinced, which will make Rio and its aftermath appointment viewing for the sport’s supporters in this country.

“We’re obviously very proud of the tradition of the men’s eight, but we were also given the mandate to increase our medal count,” says Cookson. “It’s a lot of guys and a lot of resources to have an eight. We felt it was a good opportunity to try smaller boats.”

“Canada has an amazing legacy in the eight,” says rower Conlin McCabe. “Switching to the four (in which he now rows), discovering a new event, wasn’t easy. It’s definitely been a little complicated at times. It’s been a bit of a dance, but it feels like we’re getting closer every day.”

McCabe is one of three rowers heading to Rio who won silver in Spracklen’s eight-man boat in London. He’s joined in the fours by Will Crothers, while Rob Gibson has landed in the quad. But if either boat medals in Brazil, it will be from an underdog position.

The quads, which also features Julian Bahain, Will Dean and Pascal Lussier, didn’t qualify for Rio until the final Olympic qualifier in late May when they finished second to Russia in Lucerne.

As it happens, Spracklen is now coaching the Russian team, and they’ve qualified an eight, a quad and a four for Rio. We did mention there are a couple of layers to this story?

The four, meanwhile, figures to be the feature men’s boat, but finished a depressing 14th at the world championship in Korea three years ago before improving to fourth at last year’s world championship. Everyone connected with the crew — which includes Tim Schrijver and Kai Langerfeld — says it’s improved greatly in its Victoria training sessions this year.

Then again, it had a long way to go.

“It’s a big change for the guys,” says McElroy, who coached the British men’s eight to gold in Sydney 16 years ago.

How big?

“If you’re in the eight, it’s like being the infantry,” says McElroy. “The smaller boats are like special forces.”

Ah.

“It’s definitely been a four-year project and we were very aware of that from the beginning,” says Crothers. “Maybe we didn’t realize just how much it was going to take. We’re fighting for every inch we can get out there.”

Canada’s best chance at a medal, meanwhile, likely rests with the women’s lightweight pair of Lindsay Jennerich and Patricia Obee. Four years ago they finished a disappointing seventh in London, but won the Lucerne World Cup race in late May with a dominating performance.

The women’s eight, which won silver in London four years ago, finished fourth in that race, and Cookson says its training in London has been encouraging. Lesley Thompson-Willy, the cox of the women’s eight, returns for her eighth Olympics, tying the all-time record for women in any sport.

Single sculler Carlin Zeeman, a rising star in the Canadian program, also finished second in the women’s single sculls in Lucerne and won the first World Cup race of the season in Italy.

Those five boats, according to Cookson, are all medal threats, with the women’s pair of Nicole Hare and Jennifer Martins and a men’s lightweight four rounding out the Canadian team.

“We have a medal count in mind,” said Cookson. “If everything goes right on the day we could have three to four medals. That would be an incredible achievement.”

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