A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.

Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.

Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the AtlanticThere are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

I was only banned for 4 hours, with the remark "Take a break". Implying the moderator probably doesn't entirely disagree with me either, but I can say I touched on some sensitive areas with certain members.

The video I linked to was probably just too much.

I did not circumvent the ban, and I have no connection to the poster "sheople".

i think rts means 'real time strategy' which would be the idea behind the abandonment of ozone measurement.

so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

I can go on like this all day...

Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me.

Perhaps you still fail to realize that this is what Obama wants... You'll see in a few years.

"Section 182(c)(1) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) required the Administrator to promulgate rules for the enhanced monitoring of ozone, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and volatile organic compounds (VOC) to obtain more comprehensive and representative data on ozone air pollution. Immediately following the promulgation of such rules, the affected States were to commence such actions as were necessary to adopt and implement a program to improve ambient monitoring activities and the monitoring of emissions of NOx and VOC. Each State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the affected areas must contain measures to implement the ambient monitoring of such air pollutants. The subsequent revisions to Title 40, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 58 (40 CFR 58) required States to establish Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) as part of their SIP monitoring networks in ozone nonattainment areas classified as serious, severe, or extreme."

Good Afternoon, and politics and corporate profits aside, I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving Holiday.....Pretty cold for the SE US the past few days but a warming trend this week. Was really nice to get the Winter Chill on during Thanksgiving Weekend......Just too many leaves to bag in the yard on Friday and full again on Saturday. Gonna wait a few weeks for some fronts to finish knocking down the rest.

so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

I can go on like this all day...

Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me.

Just had an election...did you vote for the continued "hope and change"? You will get what you deserve. Cut the welfare spending...highest in history..use some of those billions to fund whatever monitors you want. I would gladly pay these high and soon to be higher taxes for a solution..not just contributing to a lazy populous. 65 and rainy here in NOLA

"Smoke pollution had been a problem in St. Louis for many decades prior to the event, due to the large-scale burning of bituminous (soft) coal to provide heat and power for homes, businesses and transport.[1] In 1893, the Council passed an ordinance prohibiting the emission of "thick grey smoke within the corporate limits of St. Louis" but was unable to enforce it because of legal action taken by one of the worst corporate offenders.[2] The effectiveness of laws was also limited by the lack of adequate inspection and enforcement."

When rhetoric (on BOTH sides of the aisle) becomes more important than actually managing the country, we are in a sad state as a society.

Our country was founded upon compromise. Not a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude, nor a "you can't touch my sacred cow" mentality. Over the past several congressional sessions, there has been a dearth of compromise, and a lot of rhetoric.

Unfortunately, after all that rhetoric, some beneficial programs have been victim of the spending chopping block, like the ozone/PM2.5 monitoring, and weather satellite launches.

Unfortunately, the Republicans still own the house, and there aren't enough independents for the democrats to do anything in the Senate anyway.

Basically the government will be in a deadlock on any meaningful issues until mid-term elections, except possibly on random emergency issues like any potential wars or other calamities.

Very true.

When rhetoric (on BOTH sides of the aisle) becomes more important than actually managing the country, we are in a sad state as a society.

Our country was founded upon compromise. Not a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude, nor a "you can't touch my sacred cow" mentality. Over the past several congressional sessions, there has been a dearth of compromise, and a lot of rhetoric.

Unfortunately, after all that rhetoric, some beneficial programs have been victim of the spending chopping block, like the ozone/PM2.5 monitoring, and weather satellite launches.

Quoting Skyepony:The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.43.

With the Kelvin waves dissipating earlier & farther west, looking like a cooler neutral for the winter.

Fcst for AO is strongly -ve for the next week. With ENSO neutral, ern US should be cooling off but that doesn't jibe with current CPC forecast of above average for nearly all of the lower 48. Lies, damned lies and statistics :)

Quoting TomballTXPride:We have to pick our battles, and pick them wisely. I respectfully disagree, neighbor.

so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

Quoting ScottLincoln:The NWS still has its issues/faults, just as any large entity - government or otherwise - should be expected to have. As with anything in these environments, it takes many people leading and pushing for improvements to make things better, and sometimes progress is slow.

Of course they have faults/issues. They're not perfect. I didn't say they were. To be clearer, they're a perfect example of showing a coordinated single goverment agency without a profit motive and with government funding serves the public well-being better than any combo of private companies could do.

So.... it's a profit thing. The evil corporations win again. Have a nice day RTS. ROTFLMAO

That's not me, I can assure you.

I was only banned for 4 hours, with the remark "Take a break". Implying the moderator probably doesn't entirely disagree with me either, but I can say I touched on some sensitive areas with certain members.

The video I linked to was probably just too much.

I did not circumvent the ban, and I have no connection to the poster "sheople".

I agree it's about priorities. Now, who here is willing to admit that, in their opinion, breathable air, drinkable water, and livable temperatures should "take the back seat" to corporate profits? Surely no clear-thinking person (or political party) would have such a skewed set of priorities, right?

BERKELEY — Long-term exposure to ground-level ozone, a major component of smog, is associated with an increased risk of death from respiratory ailments, according to a new nationwide study led by a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley.

The study, to be published in the March 12 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine, analyzed the risk of death for both ozone and fine particulate matter, two of the most prevalent components of air pollution. The study followed nearly 450,000 people for two decades and covered 96 metropolitan regions in the United States.

Map of ozone concentrations in U.S.A new study finds that long-term exposure to ozone is linked to a higher risk of death from respiratory causes. This map shows average ozone concentrations for the years 1977-2000 in the 96 metropolitan regions included in the study. Click map to view full-size version. (Courtesy of Bernie Beckerman/UC Berkeley)The researchers found that people living in areas with the highest concentrations of ozone, such as the Los Angeles metropolitan area and California's Central Valley, had a 25 to 30 percent greater annual risk of dying from respiratory diseases compared with people from regions with the lowest levels of the pollutant. Those locations included the Great Plains area and regions near San Francisco and Seattle.

"This is the first time we've been able to connect chronic exposure to ozone, one of the most widespread pollutants in the world, with the risk of death, arguably the most important outcome in health impact studies used to justify air quality regulations," said study lead author Michael Jerrett, UC Berkeley associate professor of environmental health sciences. "Previous research has connected short-term or acute ozone exposure to impaired lung function, aggravated asthma symptoms, increased emergency room visits and hospitalizations, but the impact of long-term exposure to ozone on mortality had not been pinned down until now."

The study found that for every 10 parts-per-billion (ppb) increase in ozone level, there is a 4 percent increase in risk of death from respiratory causes, primarily pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

"World Health Organization data indicate that about 240,000 people die each year from respiratory causes in the United States," said Jerrett. "Even a 4 percent increase can translate into thousands of excess deaths each year. Globally, some 7.7 million people die from respiratory causes, so worldwide the impact of ozone pollution could be very large."

For the record, I have asthma, and I can tell if it is a bad PM2.5 or ozone day in my area... I hit the inhaler more often, and feel much more out of breath if I'm outside.

The NWS is such a tiny portion of our government expenditure, but for some reason, certain sections of the political spectrum sees them as "expendable" or "wasteful", yet turn a blind eye to truly wasteful sections of the budget, like the defense dept and pork.

There was a similar event in London in 1952. That led to a UK clean air act being passed in 1956.

"The Great Smog of '52 or Big Smoke[1] was a severe air pollution event that affected London during December 1952. A period of cold weather, combined with an anticyclone and windless conditions, collected airborne pollutants mostly from the use of coal to form a thick layer of smog over the city. It lasted from Friday 5 to Tuesday 9 December 1952, and then dispersed quickly after a change of weather.

Although it caused major disruption due to the effect on visibility, and even penetrated indoor areas, it was not thought to be a significant event at the time, with London having experienced many smog events in the past, so called "pea soupers". However, medical reports in the following weeks estimated that 4,000 people had died prematurely and 100,000 more were made ill because of the smog's effects on the human respiratory tract. More recent research suggests that the number of fatalities was considerably greater at about 12,000.[2]

It is considered the worst air pollution event in the history of the United Kingdom,[3] and the most significant in terms of its effect on environmental research, government regulation, and public awareness of the relationship between air quality and health.[2] It led to several changes in practices and regulations, including the Clean Air Act 1956."

"The Donora Smog marked one of the incidents where Americans recognized that exposure to large amounts of pollution in a short period of time can result in injuries and fatalities. The event is often credited for helping to trigger the clean-air movement in the United States, whose crowning achievement was the Clean Air Act of 1970, which required the United States Environmental Protection Agency to develop and enforce regulations to protect the general public from exposure to hazardous airborne contaminants."

That was short term exposure, of course. We don't have to worry about long term exposure either, right?

Surely air pollution is a thing of the past. We've got so many laws regulating it. We don't have to worry about what happened in London years ago.

"Pea soup, or a pea souper, also known as a black fog or killer fog, is a very thick and often yellowish, greenish, or blackish smog, caused by air pollution that contains soot particulates and the poisonous gas sulphur dioxide. These very thick smogs occur in cities and are derived from the smoke given off by the burning of soft coal for home heating and in industrial processes. Smog of this intensity is often lethal to vulnerable people such as the elderly, the very young and those with respiratory problems." (Wikipedia)

Quoting Skyepony:Last day to comment..people with asthma, heart conditions & such use these..money is tight, no need to know when it's safe to let the young & old out. Really??

NWS is proposing to terminate all operational and experimental ozone air quality predictions and developmental predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) produced using the Community Model for Air Quality (CMAQ) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This termination is proposed due to the current fiscal environment. NWS will maintain operational air quality predictions of smoke, dust, and volcanic ash, as well as dispersion model predictions for the emergency management community responding to harmful releases.

Please provide comments on the proposed termination, by November 26, 2012, to: nwssp.comments@noaa.gov

NWS will evaluate all comments to determine whether to proceed with this termination. It is expected that the operational ozone output will be terminated on or about March 5, 2013, and the experimental ozone output and developmental PM2.5 predictions will be terminated on or about January 22, 2013.

Specifically, this will result in the termination of all surface ozone and developmental PM2.5 predictions over the CONUS, Alaska and Hawaii that are made from the 06 UTC and 12 UTC prediction cycles.