Patriots deserve to be Super Bowl favorites

So, the hot team, or the better team? When you subtract all the Brady vs. (other) Manning hype and the rematch hype, that's what it comes down to. The Giants are hot. The Patriots are better.

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Posted Jan. 26, 2012 at 12:01 AM
Updated Jan 26, 2012 at 8:16 AM

Posted Jan. 26, 2012 at 12:01 AM
Updated Jan 26, 2012 at 8:16 AM

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So, the hot team, or the better team?

When you subtract all the Brady vs. (other) Manning hype, the rematch hype and the Boston-New York hype, that's what Super Bowl XLVI comes down to.

The Giants are hot.

The Patriots are better.

Many people have questioned Vegas' opening betting line of Patriots -3 — didn't the Giants beat them once already and outplay them in the playoffs?

Yes. But there's really not much doubt that New England had the better team this year when you look at the seasons both had — in fact, if you take the entire 2011 picture into account, New England should probably be favored by more than three.

The "Yeah, but the Giants won the first one" argument, even when paired with the "Yeah, but the Giants upset them in 2007" argument, doesn't hold a whole lot of water. When the Vegas boys look at teams, one game is one game, a piece of the larger puzzle — a puzzle that is put together based off an entire season's output.

New York went 9-7, and becomes the third team to make the big game after such a mediocre regular season. The others (2008 Cardinals, 1979 Rams) both lost, to the Pittsburgh Steelers as it happened. Arizona was a 6.5-point underdog, the Rams an 11-point underdog.

And at least those other 9-7 teams had the decency to outscore their opponents on the season. New York headed to the playoffs having been outscored, 400-394 — the first time anyone has reached the Super Bowl off such a year.

To put the Giants' season in perspective, remember the 1998 Patriots?

There's not much reason to. They were an up-and-down team under Pete Carroll, three years removed from the Bill Parcells Super Bowl and three years away from the return under Bill Belichick.

They snuck into the postseason at 9-7 in the final week of the year, despite outscoring their opponents by just eight points on the year. They didn't do anything particularly well, and even if Drew Bledsoe was healthy (he went down with a finger injury) no one was expecting anything much from them in the postseason.

That, in a nutshell, is what the 2011 Giants were "» until, of course, they caught fire, eliminating three excellent teams in three weeks.

But Vegas doesn't overrate success in the playoffs quite as much as fans do — on ESPN.com's PollCenter, with almost 400,000 votes in, the Eastern side of the country (with the predictable exception of New England) is picking the Giants.

The Western states, with no particular rooting interest, are almost exclusively picking the Patriots.

Why? Apparently, they remember the regular season.

While the regular-season Giants remind you of that mediocre Pete Carroll Pats team, the Patriots' historical comparisons are much better based off their 16-game numbers. Based on record, points scored and points allowed, here are the four most similar teams to the 2011 Patriots:

2011 Saints (a pretty special group, we can all agree)

2004 Colts (the season that Peyton Manning had a 121.1 rating)

2001 Rams (Greatest Show on Turf)

1998 Broncos (repeat SB champions)

That's a pretty stark difference in company.

Yes, Super Bowl teams with the better record in the regular season have only won once in the last six matchups "» but is that a trend or an aberration? Before that, the team with the better record had gone 23-5 in Super Bowls.

And consider that last year's Green Bay team, while finishing 10-6, did so with an impressive set of stats that suggested they'd have finished 12-4 or 13-3. This year's New York team finished 9-7 with stats that suggested they'd have finished 8-8.

Also, while the Giants were mighty impressive in knocking off Atlanta and Green Bay, they were unquestionably lucky to beat the San Francisco. This might go in New England's favor "» had the Patriots also needed the breaks to beat Baltimore.

None of this goes to determining the outcome (SB 42 reminded us of that), and there are hundreds of factors that affect any NFL result, but yes, the Patriots do deserve their favorite's role.

Now let's see if it means anything.

Jonathan Comey is sports and features editor for The Standard-Times. E-mail him at jcomey@s-t.com