McCain out in front? Update: AP says possibly

posted at 1:10 pm on April 10, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Politico has its hands on internal polling from Team McCain and the RNC which has them feeling good about their chances in November. McCain leads both Democratic contenders well outside the margins of error. He has consolidated Republican support while extending his reach to moderates — and even some Democrats:

Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee’s state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month.

He’s moved ahead of the two Democrats by consolidating support among Republicans, but also by retaining his backing among a wide swath of independents and picking up a small chunk of cross-party support.

Among independents, McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Among Democrats, he picks up 20 percent in a race against Obama and leads Barack Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Senator Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent.

It’s a pretty remarkable showing, given a couple of opposing currents in 2008. The gap in party affiliation continues to grow in favor of the Democrats, and after eight years of an unpopular President, Republicans should be in deep trouble for November. In fact, most analysts figured that either Obama or Hillary could easily beat whomever the GOP offered as its sacrificial lamb this fall.

McCain, though, turns out to be the near-perfect Republican candidate in this election, and he has the Democrats to thank for it. Instead of triangulating to the center, both Obama and Hillary have run to the far Left. They have embraced the populism that failed John Edwards in two successive cycles and pushed the Democrats farther Left than any time since 1972. Meanwhile, McCain’s existing credibility with independents and moderates has allowed him to quietly gain supporters without alienating the Republican base — again, thanks to the leftward push of the two Democrats.

Howard Dean claims that this is just a passing phase. McCain doesn’t have a “well-formed image” with American voters, the DNC chair explains, but he fails to explain how Barack Obama’s three years in the Senate and lack of visibility on any major issue compares to McCain’s quarter-century of high-profile leadership. McCain has attracted centrists and independents precisely because people know McCain well — and they’re beginning to learn about Barack Obama.

Update: The AP — not known for its bias towards Republicans — sees Obama and Hillary both heading south in a general election:

Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama’s 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.

The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee. ….

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain’s 45 percent. Factoring in the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.

If McCain is winning independents and married women against Obama, then the Democrats will be in for a very unhappy November.

Blowback

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Wow, I just saw Russert on with Chris Mathews and they are both in awe of the new polls. Russert also produced a poll that shows that if Maverick takes Condi Rice, he wins 45 of 50 states including New York. I guess I’ll have to settle for Lindsey Graham as Secretary of State. Shucks.

I’ve been say Condi for VP for 3 years now… I hope she does because I think they can manage the Bush connection and run on the issues and experience. Plus, I think she would grab some of the black and female votes.

That, for all the galaxy of reasons I might have to not vote for him, none of them are valid to any extent whatsoever except for childish petulance?

Really?

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Yes. Really.
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Adults make choices in life. Sometimes the alternatives all suck. Adults pick one anyway.
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Children say: “Maybe if I refuse to eat both the brussel sprouts AND the peas, Mommy will serve cannoli tomorrow.”
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Your principles aren’t going to be worth a tin shit when President Obama sends John Edwards to the Hill as an Attorney General nominee, dude.

Do you think that McCain’s Supreme Court nominees will be the same as Obama/Clinton’s nominees? (Nominess that make it through the Senate? Probably about the same.)

Do you think that McCain will immediately pull the troops out of Iraq in ignomy?(The troops can not be pulled out of Iraq in ignomy.)
Do you think that McCain’s fiscal policy will be as disastrous as Obama/Clinton?(Probably.)

You made your point about McCain not being your ideal candidate.(LOL. Rudy was not my ideal candidate. Juan is quite something else altogether)

MB4, the time to debate the merits of a McCain candidacy are over(It’s hardly even begun. Wait and see.)

Does anybody have any internals on the AP/Ipsos poll, as in how many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents were in the sample?

If they gave Obama an 11-point lead last time with a skewed sample, did they still use a Democrat-skewed sample which resulted in a tie, which would mean a McCain victory in the real electorate? Or did they simply unskew the sample since last time, and the tie is real?

If McCain is winning independents and married women against Obama, then the Democrats will be in for a very unhappy November.

Obama, because of his and appearence, has the youth vote. However the youth tend not to vote in general elections. There are going to be a lot of angry middle age and older women if Hillary doesn’t get the nomination. I think many of them will hold a grudge.

McCain is a centrist, if he can sell himself as a reasonable one to independent voters he has a chance.

That’s probably true. I can still remember how relaxed Jimmu was on Election Day 1980. We were told later that although most polls showed a close race with a Carter win, his internals showed him getting an a$$ whoopin’. He did.

I never would have thought that Maverick could have pulled off a visit on the View, but not only did he survive, he flourished. He was funny, direct, concise. Oh yeah, Elizabeth Hasslebeck looked stunningly hot. again, Hit the music. It’s over.

Six points ahead of one, 11 ahead of the other. I do appreciate that he’s not trailing either one, but to me those margins don’t mean squat when what we’re doing is a 1-against-2 comparison. The dem voting block is still split, and running somewhat ahead of half the pack doesn’t amount to a whole lot. Does anybody know of any modeling or polling that tries to emulate the general, where there is only ONE Dem candidate?

With all these media outlets loving the Mav so much, i.e. Letterman, The View, etc…, That supposed $40 milliion dollar smear campaign that is on its way will backfire to no end. It will be like the NYT’s smear piece times a hundred. Bring it on hippies!!!

The AP poll is crap, of course. Nedra Pickler is a damn wacked-out socialist.
The real number is 10% or more. Probably more.

In what parallel universe did Hillary ever score 10 points over McCain? And that incredible interview with Bartiromo and Obama on CNBC. That stupid race-obsessed bastard (an apt description, in the legal sense) is embarrassing.

Eh I dunno, once Obama is settled in as the official nominee, the media are going to be dry humping him all the way to the election. I am very skeptical of the GOPs chances this year.

Dash on April 10, 2008 at 6:08 PM

Yep. Dash you got that right. I’m not so sure they’ll even be dry in their open affection for BO. Me and the other “pseudo-purists” are hoping that you recognize that McCain was not the best Republicans could have done. This will take some of the sting out of this loss. McCain burned too many bridges for me to ever vote for him.

If McCain or any Republican candidate could not consolidate the base or my vote for that matter, they had no chance of winning in November. Forget the middle (they are too stupid to be reliable – they will vote for anything shiny that makes them feel good at the time) the base is essential.

McCain did every thing he could to alienate the base and he never had my vote. Perhaps the smarter folks on this blog would recognize that is precisely why the NYT endorsed McCain on the weekend before Super Tuesday?

4. No one in the Republican party could have conceived of a way to tinker with the outcome of the Dem nomination process. What Rush is doing is historical, and he does it all with humour, optimism, and patriotism.

RushBaby on April 10, 2008 at 2:57 PM

I’m a Pennsylvania Republican who registered Democrat to vote for Hilary, and I don’t like what Rush is doing. I’m voting for Hilary, because I understand the damage and evil the Jimmy Carter did to the world and I fear Obama would be a rerun of Carter. I sincerely believe Hilary would do better than Jimmy Carter. (It’s pretty gosh darn low standard, you have to admit.) I would like to think it’s fear of evil from Obama that motivates Republicans to vote for Hilary and not game playing. It just seems more decent.

but for now, I wont give too many shouts of joy coz its hella early and theres many many battles yet to fight.
the Mav will come dowen to earth and the Obambi will ascend to heights as yet unknown once he has the nomination and Congress passes a bill outlawing critcism of The Messiah and mandating 40 hours per week of positive coverage of him.

The numbers are encouraging. but as Han Solo famously said to Luke on the occasion of Luke’s first tie-fighter kill: “Great shot, kid. dont get cocky.”
Love the Howard Dean spin, too. What a choad.

TexasJew, you’re absolutely right. I’ve seen a number of polls, including a Gallup/MSNBC poll that was obviously stacked against McCain.
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What these pollsters are doing is oversampling the percentage of Democrats (when a registered vote poll, a likely-to-vote in November poll, or whatever) and undersampling those who are registered or self-identified as Republican.
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When that raw data has been available to compare the national breakdown of Dems/independents + undecideds/Reps,
you can see the oversampling/undersampling that incorrectly gives either Democrat higher numbers than McCain. It’s not hard to see that they’re falsely giving anywhere from 5% to 10% to Obama or Clinton that should be McCain’s.
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I saw the same thing in an MSNBC/Gallup poll! Gallup! I guess, since lefty MSNBC paid Gallup for the poll, Gallup delivered the results that MSNBC wanted to see, and tout on it’s news programs.
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So, this ostensible tie result poll from AP/Ipsos is, IMO, at least 5% undercutting McCain numbers. That Clinton 48% to McCain 45% is actually McCain 50% plus to Clinton 43% tops. That 45% to 45% tie between Obama and McCain is probably McCain 50%+ to Obama’s 40% tops, with the independents and undecided divided proportionately.
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Either way, that’s a comfortable McCain victory, with a landslide McCain win against Hillary.
.IMPORTANT POINT: BTW, the so-called AP/Ipsos poll means: AP paid the French firm Ipsos-Reid to run this poll. In the previous Canadian national elections, the Liberal Party commissioned the Ipsos Reid firm to do it’s supposedly independent polls, all of which results-quelle surprise!-falsely favored the Liberal Party over the Conservative Party. The Conservatives won the election. The Liberals lost a lot of seats in Parliament.

I suspect we’re going to see a helluva lot of stacked polls in this election year. What we have to do is not let themn get away with it.
.Just like the Blogosphere smashed Reuters for it’s Fauxtography scandal, and CBS for the fraudulent, last minute attempted bash on Bush’s military record with phony docs just before the previous election, we can have the same effect in starting to hold these polling firms to an honest standard.

You know how Rush always calls libs “kool-aid drinkers.” Let’s remember that the espression refers, sadly, to mass self-inflicted death, caused by wrong-headed belief. Seems there’s a connection between the willingness to jump off a cliff for your cause, and the willingness on the part of Democrat partisans (I know, redundant) to throw the other Dem candidate under the bus and vote for McCain in the general. For a Clintonite to vote for McCain, rather than vote for Obama–Kool-aid!