A new model demonstrating the notebook sales trends over the past year shows a significant market-wide decline since the introduction of Apple's iPad.

Analyst Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley revealed in a note to investors this week that her firm has assumed that the iPad has "cannibalized" 25 percent of PC notebook sales since its introduction in April. The analyst referenced a claim made this week by the chief executive of electronics retailer Best Buy, who said that the iPad has reduced some notebook sales by as much as 50 percent.

The data from Morgan Stanley Research, based partly on NPD sales figures, shows that notebook sales were up 35 percent year over year in February, but by August they had decreased to a loss of 4 percent from a year prior.

The Wall Street firm has adjusted its projected notebook and tablet sales for the next year accordingly. Huberty now expects PC unit growth to increase 13 percent in calendar year 2010, down from the 15 percent she previously expected. In addition, she sees another 8 percent growth in 2011, decreased from the previous prediction of 13 percent.

Huberty now expects to see a total of 50 million tablets sold in calendar year 2011. That's up from her previous forecast of 37 million.

"We expect tablets to continue to pressure PCs as more vendors launch products (e.g. Dell Streak and Samsung Tab) and Apple expands its iPad distribution (e.g., China and five Latin American countries by September 17)," she wrote.

The figures support findings from a survey released earlier this year by Morgan Stanley, in which 44 percent of iPad buyers said they viewed the device as a notebook replacement. Another 41 percent of people in that survey said they would not buy an iPod touch as a result of their purchase, and 27 percent said they would not buy a desktop PC.

Huberty of late has been bullish on AAPL stock, and expects it to potentially hit $400 in 2011, in a best-case scenario. She also sees Apple reaching 100 million active iPhone subscribers by the end of 2011.

Possibly, but for the first time in many years I'm considering a desktop as my next computer. I've been choosing a laptop as a compromise between power and portability; but if the iPad can do 95%of what I need the portability for, then I could get a much more powerful iMac for the same price as a MBP.

And I'd only get the iMac for photo and video processing (as a hobby). I'm guessing many people would consider an iPad sufficient to put off replacing a computer or decide to not make the switch to a laptop. Just keep their desktop and get an iPad for on-the-go email and web. Either choice would erode laptop sales.

Its still just a theory at this point with only circumstantial evidence, but the economy has been bad" for years now.

Well, this is exactly what should be expected, that notebook (and netbook, which are not discussed in the article) sales will decline as a result of the introduction of tablets. Despite the cries that you can't do this or that on a tablet, for most consumers, a tablet is a more than adequate notebook replacement. Expect next that sales numbers show an uptick in desktop sales, although this may lag a bit.

I wish these analysts and bloggers would stop assigning new definitions to established words when a perfectly appropriate word is available. It's hard enough trying to communicate clearly without muddling up word meanings.

Well, this is exactly what should be expected, that notebook (and netbook, which are not discussed in the article) sales will decline as a result of the introduction of tablets. Despite the cries that you can't do this or that on a tablet, for most consumers, a tablet is a more than adequate notebook replacement. Expect next that sales numbers show an uptick in desktop sales, although this may lag a bit.

Its what I would expect too, as well as an eventual surge in desktop sales as people find that a proper desktop combined with a very portable satellite computing device is a more useful combination than simply having a notebook. But I still conclude that its still a hypothesis until we get more data points.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Possibly, but for the first time in many years I'm considering a desktop as my next computer. I've been choosing a laptop as a compromise between power and portability; but if the iPad can do 95%of what I need the portability for, then I could get a much more powerful iMac for the same price as a MBP.

I think, for the most part, people don't usually make purchasing decisions of computing devices on whether a particular device can do almost everything they need.

Notebooks are great for college students who often go to various places to study and likely have limited desk space where they live, be it dorm of sharing an apartment.

Desktops are perfect for workplace and home offices because they are more ergonomic and easier on the eyes, as well as offer better performance.

iPads are great for couch computing and sales presentations.

If you need portability and compact size, a desktop won't fit the bill. If you need a large monitor and maximum power, a notebook won't do. And if you need a complete filesystem based computer, an iPad can't cut it.

I personally wouldn't choose one over the other based on the overlap in features. They all email, they all surf the web. It is the things that they don't have in common that should be the differentiators in the purchasing decision.

As predicted, we've gone from the iPad being simply the wrong kind of device (too limited, toy OS, "just for media consumption") to "tablet" magically having become a product category, as if the iPad just happened to be a successful example of the genre.

There is no genre. There is the iPad. No one is talking about the need for a Windows powered tablet anymore. Everyone is talking about the presently to arrive Android clones, which mimic the iPad in its every particular (plus, also as predicted, assorted "specs and features" that will presumably "blow away" the iPad).

But this is fundamentally an Apple phenomena, and talking about predicted "tablet sales" as a growth industry manages to once again erase immediate history, wherein everything before the iPad was a miserable failure, the iPad's introduction was dismissed by a lot of people as "just a big iPod" with a ludicrously big bezel incapable of doing "real work", and everything with any chance of success, post iPad, is going to copy the iPad model of lightweight OS coupled to app stores and services.

Since this all happened in the space of less than a year, we might occasionally pause and consider the fact that Android clones aren't simply going to make the obvious and inevitable design that everyone knows is the logical next step, even though we all know that certain parties will never tire of reminding us that Apple never invents anything that they had some fucking piece of shit touch thing years ago that was great. Apple (again) simply changed everyone's idea about how this "category" should look and how it should function and what it should be for.

They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.

I can understand that people might opt for an iPad to complement a desktop over a laptop/netbook but people aren't walking into stores with the intention of buying a laptop and walking out with an iPad. Most laptop buyers don't buy them as accessories to desktops but as desktop replacements and you need either a laptop or desktop to even use an iPad. I would suggest the laptop market is starting to hit saturation given that they've been outselling desktops by 4:1 for a while now. Also, bear in mind this graph shows growth not sales so the number of laptops sold might still be going up, it's just decelerating.

As predicted, we've gone from the iPad being simply the wrong kind of device (too limited, toy OS, "just for media consumption") to "tablet" magically having become a product category, as if the iPad just happened to be a successful example of the genre.

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All Of This Has Happened Before And Will Happen Again

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Possibly, but for the first time in many years I'm considering a desktop as my next computer. I've been choosing a laptop as a compromise between power and portability; but if the iPad can do 95%of what I need the portability for, then I could get a much more powerful iMac for the same price as a MBP.

And I'd only get the iMac for photo and video processing (as a hobby). I'm guessing many people would consider an iPad sufficient to put off replacing a computer or decide to not make the switch to a laptop. Just keep their desktop and get an iPad for on-the-go email and web. Either choice would erode laptop sales.

This is what I did too. Got an ipad for mobile needs and a 27" intel i7 iMac. Sold my old vista laptop and one windows quad core PC. I still have one windows machine (quad core) that I will replace by a Mac at some point in the future. I am going from an all out windows house to an all out mac house just because I bough an iphone which made me go to an AppleStore at some point.

I still need winXP to do remote connects for my job by I an using the free software VirtualBox for it and it works fine. All you need is the winXP CD and youre all set.

Possibly, but for the first time in many years I'm considering a desktop as my next computer. I've been choosing a laptop as a compromise between power and portability; but if the iPad can do 95%of what I need the portability for, then I could get a much more powerful iMac for the same price as a MBP.

And I'd only get the iMac for photo and video processing (as a hobby). I'm guessing many people would consider an iPad sufficient to put off replacing a computer or decide to not make the switch to a laptop. Just keep their desktop and get an iPad for on-the-go email and web. Either choice would erode laptop sales.

I'm in a similar train of thought. In 2002 I bought an iBook and thought I would never had another desktop computer. This summer, I picked up the new Mac mini to replace my aging MacBook.

I will buy the next generation iPad and donate my MacBook to charity. My MacBook has left the house a half dozen times since the App Store went online; my iPod touch is good enough for maybe 80% of the things I need to do on the road. With the iPad, that should be closer to 95%.

I can understand that people might opt for an iPad to complement a desktop over a laptop/netbook but people aren't walking into stores with the intention of buying a laptop and walking out with an iPad. Most laptop buyers don't buy them as accessories to desktops but as desktop replacements and you need either a laptop or desktop to even use an iPad. I would suggest the laptop market is starting to hit saturation given that they've been outselling desktops by 4:1 for a while now. Also, bear in mind this graph shows growth not sales so the number of laptops sold might still be going up, it's just decelerating.

Id think most are making that decision before they hit the stores. Weighing the pros and cons of what kind of device they really want for their next purchase so i can see people holding off on buying a new PC in order to get an iPad. In fact, I know several people who have done just just that and others who will be moving to a desktop for their device because of the iPad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by extremeskater

I also believe the smartphone market has cut into sales. Many users today have rather modest needs. For many users if they can browse the net, get on social networks, respond to emails and text message they are all set.

With the iPhone and Android phones selling like crazy that has to cut into the notebook market. Windows most likely being hit harder then Mac.

Thats an interesting PoV and one that I agree with now that you mention it. I think you could definitely make an argument that the PC growth rate to drop for the last few years was more a result of an upsurge in modern smartphone sales than from the downturn of the economy.

The iPad, in many ways, is just a more capable version of the iPhone and Touch many enjoy using while watching TV on the couch. I would think that the iPad would have a considerably more profound impact on PC sales because of its closer association to PCs than smartphones, and the fact that smartphones are often had a much cheaper upfront cost due to subsidization.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

A new model demonstrating the notebook sales trends over the past year shows a significant market-wide decline since the introduction of Apple's iPad.

Analyst Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley revealed in a note to investors this week that her firm has assumed that the iPad has "cannibalized" 25 percent of PC notebook sales since its introduction in April. .....

Huberty now expects to see a total of 50 million tablets sold in calendar year 2011. That's up from her previous forecast of 37 percent.

ER.... and just how many of those 50 million will be iPads.???? :-)

Quote:

"We expect tablets to continue to pressure PCs as more vendors launch products (e.g. Dell Streak and Samsung Tab) and Apple expands its iPad distribution ....," she wrote.
...
Huberty of late has been bullish on AAPL stock, and expects it to potentially hit $400 in 2011, in a best-case scenario. SHe also sees Apple reaching 100 million active iPhone subscribers by the end of 2011.

Huberty has been down on Apple from the beginning. So why the turn around??? PS. there really is NO tablet market.... its an iPad market and the new Android machines all look and try to act like an iPad.... so, lets be fair here.... How many iPad and iPad clones will be sold in 2011??? :-)

They are actually selling more computers than before. Every single year-over-year period shows significant increased Mac sales. Notebook sales surpassed those of Mac desktops many years ago. Year-over-year Mac sales sequential growth is tracking around 33%, meaning estimated Mac sales in Q4 of 4 million units.

I wish these analysts and bloggers would stop assigning new definitions to established words when a perfectly appropriate word is available. It's hard enough trying to communicate clearly without muddling up word meanings.

Aside from 'eaten into' the appropriate word is 'displaced'

I personally think the most fun gymnastics to watch concern the new found need to define 'computer'.
Is the iPad a 'computer'? Of course it is. Any definition that can encompass everything from a Univac to a laptop certainly can include an iPad. IOS devices have more computational power than all but the most recent generation of desktops and laptops.
Definitions that require that computers be 'self programmable' are BS. By that definition the original Mac wasn't a computer because software for it had to be originally written on a Lisa.

And I'd only get the iMac for photo and video processing (as a hobby). I'm guessing many people would consider an iPad sufficient to put off replacing a computer or decide to not make the switch to a laptop. Just keep their desktop and get an iPad for on-the-go email and web. Either choice would erode laptop sales.

A couple of days ago, for the first time I saw an iPad being used instead of a laptop at Uni. I think that if wireless printing works on most networks with most printers it could very well replace a laptop for those who are always on the go.

The most interesting case for iPad as a laptop replacement that I've heard was from a girl who said that it would eliminate the need for two bags. In other words iPad would fit into a larger-sized purse a lot easier and will not weigh it down nearly as much as a laptop, even a 13inch.

For me though macbook will remain my only workhorse. I carry it everywhere, and when I get home I hook it up with a large screen and turn it into a semi-dekstop for more comfortable work environment. It's not as fast, but iMacs have had a string of laptop components until recently anyway so I did not feel much a drop in performance.

I wish these analysts and bloggers would stop assigning new definitions to established words when a perfectly appropriate word is available. It's hard enough trying to communicate clearly without muddling up word meanings.

Aside from 'eaten into' the appropriate word is 'displaced'

Good luck with your plea for clarity and the correct use of language. Edwin Newman is dead; long live Edwin Newman.

They are actually selling more computers than before. Every single year-over-year period shows significant increased Mac sales. Notebook sales surpassed those of Mac desktops many years ago. Year-over-year Mac sales sequential growth is tracking around 33%, meaning estimated Mac sales in Q4 of 4 million units.

You clearly must have missed the part wherein I specifically pointed to MacBook sales... as in Apple's entry-level notebook, NOT the entire line of Macintosh computers.

Unless there is a radical shift in the sales mix, it is safe to assume that each product generally increases.

And if there was a radical drop in MacBook sales, third-party market researchers would pick up on it (or we'd hear about it from the supply chain). Since we have not heard anything, it is logical to assume that the MacBook sales are increasing like the other Macs.

Note that the analysis I linked to pointed out a slight quarterly shift to lower-priced models, so ASP was targeted slightly lower. That means MacBooks.

I have a friend who bought a iPad for their parents. Apple got their iPad "started" somehow and the parents just use it at their home on WiFi only. They do not own a home computer at all.
So apparently it can be done that way.

Since I recharged my Ipad into a wall plug-in my Ipad was not sync for more than a month now. I can still update apps or buy new ones. So its works without a Pc no problem.

Will be interesting to see the next quarter macbook and MCP sales numbers. I am kind of expecting at least macbook to be hurt by the ipad. But it may get blurr by the fact Apple Mac's are eating up the PC market share.

In fact, if you include the ipad in the laptop market share, you will get pretty interesting numbers. But analysts will probably make tablets a category by itself.