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Much like the last four years of Majority Leader Harry Reid’s tenure, when the Nevada Democrat relied on picking off swing Republicans, a GOP-led Senate would almost certainly be closely divided. A Senate led by Mitch McConnell and a narrow Republican majority would empower a small band of moderates like Joe Manchin, a conservative West Virginia Democrat, who GOP leaders would be forced to woo to pass anything at all.

A GOP majority would still have to depend on Democrats to break 60-vote filibusters — which means that conservatives’ biggest priorities would be unlikely to succeed. Still, Republicans would have free rein to block and stymie President Barack Obama’s nominations to key Cabinet and judicial positions other than the Supreme Court.

“It’s very hard to get 60 votes if you don’t compromise,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “And so this notion that they’re going to be able to exact this right-wing agenda? That’s fantasyland.”

If Republicans win the Senate, McConnell (R-Ky.) — the prospective majority leader if he wins reelection — would be in a bind: stuck between demands of the tea party and moderates in both parties who are willing to strike a deal. Enter Manchin, who exemplifies the type of Democrat that McConnell would have to work with.

“I am who I am. I don’t fit anywhere,” Manchin said of his politics, too conservative for most Democrats but too liberal for most Republicans. Even so, he’s considering donating to GOP incumbents who share his centrist tendencies.

The next two years in Congress will also determine whether a new wave of younger senators decide to become institutionalists or cut short their Senate service and leave the chamber. If more gridlock ensues, deal-making pols like Manchin could head for the exits sooner than expected. In an interview, Manchin said he was “absolutely” considering another run for West Virginia governor in 2016; his Senate term doesn’t end until 2018.

The West Virginia Democrat is a key voice among pragmatic lawmakers who can control whether the next majority’s agenda will sink or swim in the final two years of Obama’s presidency — no matter who is in charge. In this Congress, these centrist Democrats and Republicans up for reelection in 2016 from blue and purple states have already exerted themselves on jobless benefits, gun control and employment discrimination and are bound to play an even more central role in 2015.

Moderate Republicans Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, as well as Rob Portman of Ohio, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Mark Kirk of Illinois, helped pass the recent extension of jobless benefits against their party’s will. They will likely hold trump cards in the next Congress, too, and all but Collins face voters in two years in purple and blue states.

They will be joined in the Senate’s centrist core by Democrats who won red states in 2012, like Manchin, McCaskill and Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, as well as members of the class of 2014 who survive tough races in Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana and Alaska.

With their ability to single-handedly stall legislation, all senators have enormous power to upset even the most carefully orchestrated leadership plans. But as the recent battle over extending jobless benefits made clear, a handful of Republicans and moderate Democrats can be pivotal in striking bipartisan deals that can actually clear the Senate.

Even conservatives up for reelection in 2016 like Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania voted with Democrats to open debate on the jobless bill in March, surprising members in both parties. While they both ended up voting against the bill to help the long-term unemployed, Republicans from blue states say their forays into aisle-crossing should surprise no one.

“Your political opponents have an incentive to draw a caricature that’s inaccurate,” said tea party favorite Toomey, who last year cut a deal with Manchin on gun legislation and voted for a bill to broaden workplace protections to gays and lesbians. “There were inaccurate characterizations of who I am and what I’m about. And time and actual history fleshes out the truth and reality.”

In this fall’s elections, there are numerous paths to a Senate Republican majority by winning a net of at least six seats to retake power in the chamber for the first time since 2006. Republicans say the problems that come with holding a Senate majority are something they’re eager to have, even if being in the minority has occasionally empowered individual Republicans by forcing Democratic leaders to work with GOP lawmakers willing to cut a deal.

“Setting hearings on issues is really the vital aspect of a majority,” said John McCain of Arizona, one of 43 senators who have served under a Republican Senate majority leader.