Overnight rhetoric in Asia became increasingly heated when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed "strong dissastisfaction" at the slanderous actions of Abe's Japanese government over the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and the "theft and embezzlement" of the Diaoyu Islands. "Japan's attempt is doomed to failure," China warned ominously and as we highlight below, a reflection on the possible rational reasons for China and Japan to go to war over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands highlights the seriousness of the ongoing brinksmanship in the East China Sea. If a war is fought over these long-contested islands, it will have an eminently rational explanation underlying all the historical mistrust and nationalism on the surface. War in the East China Sea is possible, despite the economic costs.

Q: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held in Japan recently - especially during the ASEAN summit, accusing China to unilaterally change the status of the East China Sea, East China Sea, said China's air defense identification zone designation is improper for the high seas against the freedom of overflight, asked China to revoke the measure. What is your comment?

A: We have made some Japanese leaders use international slanderous remarks China expresses strong dissatisfaction.

Diaoyu Islands are China's inherent territory. Japan over the Diaoyu Islands theft and embezzlement have always been illegal and invalid. Since last year, the Japanese deliberately provoked the Diaoyu Islands dispute, unilaterally change the status quo of the Diaoyu Islands issue is none other than the Japanese themselves. In this regard, the Chinese law to take the necessary measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial fully justified, blameless.

East China's air defense identification zone designation is intended to protect national defense aviation security measures, consistent with international law and international practice, do not affect the countries of aircraft overflight freedoms enjoyed under international law. Deliberate on this issue in Japan to China to launch an attack, an attempt to tamper with the concept, the implementation of double standards, mislead international public opinion, Japan's attempt is doomed to failure.

Events in the East China Sea since 2009 have thrust to the forefront the following frightening question: will China and Japan imminently go to war? Conventional answers in the affirmative point to the deep level of historical mistrust and a certain level of “unfinished business” in East Asian international politics, stemming from the heyday of Showa Japan’s imperialism across Asia. Those on the negative often point to the astronomical economic costs that would follow from a war that pinned the world’s first and third largest economies against its second in a fight over a few measly islands, undersea hydrocarbon reserves be damned.

I can’t pretend to arbitrate between these two camps but I find that far too many observers sympathize with the second camp based on rational impulse. Of course China and Japan wouldn’t fight a war! That’d ruin their economies! I sympathize with the Clausewtizean notion of war being a continuation of politics “by other means,” and the problems caused by information asymmetries (effectively handicapping rational decision-making), but the situation over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands can result in war even if the top leaders in Tokyo and Beijing are eminently rational.

Political scientist James D. Fearon’s path-breaking article “Rationalist Explanations for War” provides a still-relevant schema that’s wonderfully applicable to the contemporary situation between China and Japan in the East China Sea. Fearon’s paper was initially relevant because it challenged the overly simplistic rationalist’s dogma: if war is so costly, then there has to be some sort of diplomatic solution that is preferable to all parties involved — barring information asymmetries and communication deficits, such an agreement should and will be signed.

Of course, this doesn’t correspond to reality where we know that many incredibly costly wars have been fought (from the first World War to the Iran-Iraq War). So, if wars are costly — as one over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is likely to be — why do they still occur? Well, the answer isn’t Japanese imperialism or because states just sometimes irrationally dislike each other (as the affirmative camp would argue). It’s more subtle.

Fearon’s “bargaining model” assumes a few dictums about state knowledge, behavior and expectations ex ante. I’ll cast the remainder of the model in terms of Japan and China since they’re our subjects of interest (and to avoid floating off into academic abstractions).

First, China and Japan both know that there is an actual probability distribution of the likely outcomes of the war. They don’t know what the actual distribution is, but they can estimate what is likely in terms of the costs and outcomes of going to war. For example, Japan can predict that it would suffer relatively low naval losses and would strengthen its administrative control of the islands; China could predict the same outcome, or it could interpret things in its favor. In essence, they acknowledge that war is predictable in its unpredictability.

Second, China and Japan want to limit risk or are neutral to risk, but definitely do not crave risk. War is fundamentally risky so this is tantamount to an acknowledgement that war is costlier than maintaining peace or negotiating an ex ante diplomatic solution.

The third assumption is a little dressed up in academic jargon: there can be no “issue indivisibility.” In plain English, this essentially means that whatever the states are fighting over (usually territory, but it could be a pot of gold) can be divided between them in an infinite number of ways on a line going from zero to one. Imagine that zero is Japan’s ideal preference (total Japanese control of the Senkakus and acknowledgement as such by China) and one is China’s ideal preference (total Chinese control of Diaoyu and acknowledgement by Japan). Fearon’s assumption requires that there exist points like 0.23 and 0.83 (and so forth) which set up some sort sharing between the warring parties. Even solutions, such as one proposed by Zheng Wang here at The Diplomat to establish a “peace zone,” could sit on this line.

If the third assumption sounds the shakiest to you that’s probably because it is. “Issue indivisibility” is a nasty problem and a subject of quite some research. It usually is at the heart of wars that seek to decide which state should control a territory such as a Holy City (the intractability of the Arab-Israeli conflict is said to be plagued by indivisible issues).

So, is the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu fundamentally indivisible? Probably in the sense of splitting sovereignty over the islands, but probably not in the sense of some ex ante bargain similar to what Zheng proposed. Even if the set of solutions isn’t infinitely divisible, whatever finite solutions exist might not fall within whatever range of solutions either Japan or China is willing to tolerate — leading to war.

Fearon actually doesn’t buy the indivisibility-leading-to-war theory himself. He reasons that generally almost every issue is complex enough to be divisible to a degree acceptable by each party (undermining the infinite divisibility requirement), and that states can link issues and offer payments to offset any asymmetrical outcome. In the Senkaku/Diaoyu case, this would mean a solution could hinge upon Japan making a broader apology for its aggression against China in the 20th century or China taking a harsher stance on North Korea (both unlikely).

Relevant to the Air Defense Identification Zone is Fearon’s description of war arising between rational states due to incentives to misrepresent capabilities. China and Japan’s leaders know more about their country’s actual willingness to go to war than anyone else, and it benefits to signal strong resolve on the issue to extract more concessions in any potential deal. Japan announcing its willingness to shoot down Chinese drones earlier this year and its most recent defense plans are example of this, and China’s ADIZ is probably the archetype of such a signal. Instead of extracting a good deal, what such declarations can do is force rational hands to war over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Fearon’s final explanation — regarding commitment problems leading to war — is slightly ancillary to the core discussion about the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands given Japan’s constitutional restraints on the use of force (rendering preemptive, preventative, and offensive wars largely irrelevant in the Japanese case). Regardless, the point remains that even if the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands might seem like a terribly silly thing for the world’s second and third largest economies to go to war over, war can still be likely.

As I observe events in the East China Sea, I mostly recall Fearon’s warnings on certain types of signals leading to brinksmanship (the divisibility issue is far murkier). Both Japan and China don’t seem to be relenting on these sorts of deleterious signals. Additionally, given that Chinese and Japanese diplomats haven’t had high-level contact in fourteen months, even the more primitive rationalist’s explanation, that war occurs because a lack of communication leads to rational miscalculations, becomes plausible.

A reflection on the possible rational reasons for China and Japan to go to war over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands highlights the seriousness of the ongoing brinksmanship in the East China Sea. If a war is fought over these long-contested islands, it will have an eminently rational explanation underlying all the historical mistrust and nationalism on the surface. War in the East China Sea is possible, despite the economic costs.

This is not the world of yesteryear. This is a world of 7 billion people and oil feeds them. China imports 10 million barrels/day. Japan imports about 5 million bpd. Cut off either and their people begin to starve from no food transport in a month or so (strategic petroleum reserves for both).

WAR ISN'T GOING TO BE BOMBING CITIES. It's going to be sinking just one tanker going to each country. Then the insurance companies won't let any more sail. And the starvation begins.

This is a world where you don't WANT to kill the enemy because the more of them there are, the more food they consume from rapidly emptying store shelves. This is a world where you let scarcity win your battles.

Not much glory in such a war and militaries won't like it. It's not a strategy that gets generals enshrined in history for their tactical brilliance. But it's how war will now be fought.

"There does exist ... an international Anglophile network ... which we may identify as the Round Table Groups. I know of the operations of this network because I have studied it for twenty years and was permitted for two years, in the early 1960's, to examine its papers and secret records. I have no aversion to it or to most of its aims and have, for much of my life, been close to it and to many of its instruments. I have objected ... to a few of its policies ... but in general my chief difference of opinion is that it wishes to remain unknown, and I believe its role in history is significant enough to be known." -- Quote from Caroll Quigley's Tragedy and Hope, Chapter 65

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences." -- Quote from Caroll Quigley's Tragedy and Hope, Chapter 20

Quigley was a member of the CFR and mentor to Bill Clinton. They openly admit to the "conspiracy". Only the willfully ignorant deny what is right in front of their faces.

Well, runningman18, regarding: "Only the willfully ignorant deny what is right in front of their faces." That seems to include the vast majority of human beings, at the present time.

My concern is that history has selected for the people who were the best at being dishonest to become the most socially dominant. The ruling classes tend to become the most criminally insane people. Therefore, I disagreed with the basic Pollyannish premise in this article, that people preparing for wars are still acting "rationally." Rather, the vast majority of people are deliberately ignorant, while their "leaders" are the most narcissistic, psychopathic sociopaths, which both work together, within the well-established social pyramid systems, which have been developing for thousands of years.

No one group of human beings ever invented, or is solely responsible for, the principles and methods of organized crime. There were merely different groups which were best at doing that, during different times and places. The Anglo-American (Zionist) empire became globally dominant for while. However, the best organized criminal gangs has been developing within China and Japan for a long, long time as well. and they too interpenetrated and controlled their governments.

After the Western barbarians were able to force Japan and China to adapt, Japan and China assimilated what they had to, as hybridized into their own culture, and, in many ways, are now exceeding the Western countries. In that context, what Quigley correctly wrote about the ways that secret societies covertly controlled the Anglo-American (Zionist) empire are equally, if not more so, true about China and Japan, through their own hybridized history.

THE BIGGER PROBLEMS ARE THAT CHINA AND JAPAN HAVE ADAPTED TO EMBRACE THE WESTERN SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTIONS TECHNOLOGY, BUT, STILL LIKE THE WESTERN COUNTRIES, THEY TOO ARE DOMINATED BY SYSTEMS OF LIES, BACKED BY VIOLENCE, WHICH DEPEND UPON DELIBERATE IGNORANCE, AND WIDE-SPREAD SOCIAL INSANITIES.

In many ways, China and Japan are more insane than the Anglo-American (Zionist) empire that once was able to dominate China and Japan. (As demonstrated by their banksters making more money out of nothing now than our banksters do.) The basic problem that we all face is that progress in science, enabling technologies to become trillions of times more powerful and capable, have been channeled through social pyramid systems based on upon the ruling classes using lies, backed by violence, to keep the majority of people ignorant and afraid. That is the overall context of evil deliberate ignorance inside which Japan and China are operating, with Western interference still being a huge factor, although relatively diminishing.

I disagree that the influence of the globalists in China and Japan ever ended. The Rockefellers are embedded in Chinese policy making to this day. Everything the Chinese Central Bank has done has been in line with the IMF push for globalization. In fact, all that liquidity China has created is quite deliberate. They need it in order to replace the dollar as a reserve. George Soros basically lays out the whole "conspiracy" in this vid:

Yeah, runningman18, it depends how you want to slice it ... I just do not believe that the Chinese or Japanese ruling classes enjoy taking orders from the Western powers anymore than they had to in the past. I am sure that the ruling classes in Asia deeply resent the degree to which they had to be subservient to Western ruling classes, during some phases of their history. However, I do agree that the ruling classes in different countries may well have more in common with each other than with the people that they rule over, despite common race, or culture. I would not exaggerate that too far, but nevertheless, an appartent goal of the globalized ruling classes is to reduce the power of people in national units to relative insignificance as far as those people being able to use their powers to prevent the globalist from accomplishing their aganda. INDEED, THE GLOBAL RULING CLASSES APPEAR TO BE DELIBERATELY DESTROYING THE USA, IN ORDER TO REDUCE ITS PEOPLE TO BEING IN THE SAME SITUATION AS THE CHINESE PEOPLE ARE IN NOT ... BUT, since I believe that the overall agenda of the globalized ruling classes is based on runaway criminal insanities, I do not believe that they will finally suceed, but rather, will generate so much chaos that they will not get any new order out of that, such as they are apparently planning to do ... Basically, my view is that China is way more screwed up than the illusions of the apparent "growth" of its economy indicates. Unless there are some series of new energy technological miralces, which can be scaled up in real time, along with some series of political miracles to enable those to be successfully implemented, then the following basic view of China applies pretty well to the whole world, AND, IS MORE LIKELY AN UNDERSTATEMENT, RATHER THAN AN EXAGGERATION:

Yet, anyway, runningman18, that video interview with Soros you linked was interesting. I regard him as one of the more brilliant banksters, (that I am aware of) which makes him especially dangerous. I particularly distrust his way of funding the mainstream marijuana legalization movements, which are perceived as dominant by the mass media, because they have the most money, due to gifts from Soros.

-- "The Trilateral Commission (TC) published The Triangle Papers which extended the “special relationship between the US and Western Europe” to include Japan, which was fast becoming creditor to the rest of the world. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was TC Chairman. --

About the *** ROUNDTABLE *** DEAN HENDERSON wrote at great lengthy in his below article:

The Federal Reserve Cartel: Part III: The Roundtable & The Illuminati

June 8, 2011

According to former British intelligence agent John Coleman’s book, The Committee of 300, the Rothschilds exert political control through the secretive Business Roundtable, which they created in 1909 with the help of Lord Alfred Milner and South African industrialist Cecil Rhodes. The Rhodes Scholarship is granted by Cambridge University, out of which oil industry propagandist Cambridge Energy Research Associates operates.

Rhodes founded De Beers and Standard Chartered Bank. According to Gary Allen’s expose, The Rockefeller Files, Milner financed the Russian Bolsheviks on Rothschild’s behalf, with help from Jacob Schiff and Max Warburg.

In 1917 British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour penned a letter to Zionist Second Lord Lionel Walter Rothschild in which he expressed support for a Jewish homeland on Palestinian-controlled lands in the Middle East. [1]

The Balfour Declaration justified the brutal seizure of Palestinian lands for the post-WWII establishment of Israel. Israel would serve, not as some high-minded “Jewish homeland”, but as lynchpin in Rothschild/Eight Families control over the world’s oil supply. Baron Edmond de Rothschild built the first oil pipeline from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean to bring BP Iranian oil to Israel. He founded Israeli General Bank and Paz Oil. He is considered by many the father of modern Israel. [2]

Roundtable inner Circle of Initiates included Lord Milner, Cecil Rhodes, Arthur Balfour, Albert Grey and Lord Nathan Rothschild. The Roundtable takes its name from the legendary knight of King Arthur, whose tale of the Holy Grail is paramount to the Illuminatinotion of Sangreal or holy blood.

John Coleman writes in TheCommittee of 300, “Round Tablers armed with immense wealth from gold, diamond and drug monopolies fanned out throughout the world to take control of fiscal and monetary policies and political leadership in all countries where they operated.”

While Cecil Rhodes and the Oppenheimers went to South Africa, the Kuhn Loebs were off to re-colonize America. Rudyard Kipling was sent to India. The Schiffs and Warburgs manhandled Russia. The Rothschilds, Lazards and Israel Moses Seifs pushed into the Middle East. In Princeton, New Jersey the Round Table founded the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) as partner to its All Souls College at Oxford. IAS was funded by the Rockefeller’s General Education Board. IAS members Robert Oppenheimer, Neils Bohr and Albert Einstein created the atomic bomb. [3]

In 1919 Rothschild’s Business Roundtable spawned the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in London. The RIIA soon sponsored sister organizations around the globe, including the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the Asian Institute of Pacific Relations, the Canadian Institute of International Affairs, the Brussels-based Institute des Relations Internationales, the Danish Foreign Policy Society, the Indian Council of World Affairs and the Australian Institute of International Affairs. Other affiliates popped up in France, Turkey, Italy, Yugoslavia and Greece. [4]

The RIIA is a registered charity of the Queen and, according to its annual reports, is funded largely by the Four Horsemen. Former British Foreign Secretary and Kissinger Associates co-founder Lord Carrington was President of both the RIIA and the Bilderbergers. The inner circle at RIIA is dominated by Knights of St. John Jerusalem, Knights of Malta, Knights Templar and 33rd Degree Scottish Rite Freemasons. The Knights of St. John were founded in 1070 and answer directly to the British House of Windsor. Their leading bloodline is the Villiers dynasty, which the Hong Kong Matheson family married into. The Lytton family also married into the Villiers gang. [5]

Colonel Edward Bulwer-Lytton led the English Rosicrucian secret society, which Shakespeare opaquely referred to as Rosencranz, while the Freemasons took the role of Guildenstern. Lytton was spiritual father of both the RIIA and Nazi fascism. In 1871 he penned a novel titled,Vril: The Power of the Coming Race. Seventy years later the Vril Society received ample mention in Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf. Lytton’s son became Viceroy to India in 1876 just before opium production spiked in that country. Lytton’s good friend Rudyard Kipling worked under Lord Beaverbrook as Propaganda Minister, alongside Sir Charles Hambro of the Hambros banking dynasty. [6]

James Bruce, ancestor to Scottish Rite Freemason founder Sir Robert the Bruce, was the 8th Earl of Elgin. He supervised the Caribbean slave trade as Jamaican Governor General from 1842-1846. He was Britain’s Ambassador to China during the Second Opium War. His brother Frederick was Colonial Secretary of Hong Kong during both Opium Wars. Both were prominent Freemasons. British Lord Palmerston, who ran the Opium Wars, was a blood relative of the Bruce monarchy, as was his Foreign Secretary John Russell, grandfather of Bertrand Russell. [7]

Children of the Roundtable elite are members of a Dionysian cult known as Children of the Sun. Initiates include Aldous Huxley, T. S. Eliot, D. H. Lawrence and H. G. Wells. Wells headed British intelligence during WWI. His books speak of a “one-world brain” and “a police of the mind”. William Butler Yeats, another Sun member, was a pal of Aleister Crowley. The two formed an Isis Cult based on a Madam Blavatsky manuscript, which called on the British aristocracy to organize itself into an Isis Aryan priesthood. Most prominent writers of English literature came from the ranks of the Roundtable. All promoted Empire expansion, however subtly. Blavatsky’s Theosophical Society and Bulwer-Lytton’s Rosicrucians joined forces to form the Thule Society out of which the Nazis emerged. [8]

Aleister Crowley formed the British parallel to the Thule Society, the Isis-Urania Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn. He tutored LSD guru Aldus Huxley, who arrived in the US in 1952, the same year the CIA launched its MK-ULTRA mind control program with help from the Warburg-owned Swiss Sandoz Laboratories and Rockefeller cousin Allen Dulles- OSS Station Chief in Berne. Dulles received information from the Muslim Brotherhood House of Saudi regarding the creation of mind-controlled Assassins. Dulles’ assistant was James Warburg. [9]

The Atlantic Union (AU) was an RIIA affiliate founded by Cecil Rhodes- who dreamed of returning the US to the British Crown. In 1939 AU set up its first offices in America in space donated by Nelson Rockefeller at 10 E 40th St in New York City. Every year from 1949-1976 an AU resolution was floored in Congress calling for a repeal of the Declaration of Independence and a “new world order”. Another RIIA affiliate was United World Federalists (UWF)- founded by Norman Cousins and Dulles assistant James P. Warburg. UWF’s motto was “One world or none”. Its first president Cord Meyer stepped down to take a key position in Allen Dulles’ CIA. Meyer articulated UWF’s goal, “Once having joined the One-World Federated Government, no nation could secede or revolt…with the atom bomb in its possession the Federal Government would blow that nation off the face of the earth.” [10]

In 1950 James Warburg, whose elders Max and Paul sat on the board of Nazi business combine IG Farben, testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “We shall have world government whether or not you like it- by conquest or consent.” The AU and UAF are close to the CFR and the Trilateral Commission (TC)- founded by David Rockefeller and Zbigniew Brzezinski in 1974. [11]

The TC published The Triangle Papers which extended the “special relationship between the US and Western Europe” to include Japan, which was fast becoming creditor to the rest of the world. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was TC Chairman. TC/CFR insider Harvard Professor Samuel Huntington, who most recently has argued for a “Clash of Civilizations” between the West and the Muslim world, wrote in the TC publication Crisis in Democracy, “…a government which lacks authority will have little ability short of cataclysmic crisis to impose on its people the sacrifices which may be necessary.” [12]

Read the short book by W. Cleon Skousen titled: "The Naked Capitalist," written as a commentary on a 1300 page tome by Dr. Carroll Quigley (Bill Clinton's mentor!) It will tell you all you need to know about how the current imperium was put on this path of inevitable destruction. When Quigley wrote the book in 1969 he felt safe in publishing it because he thought there was no turning back by then. Quigley died in 1977. From the way things are going, he may very well have been right.

Carroll Quigley's 'Tragedy and Hope: A History of The World in Our Time' and W. Cleon Skousen's 'The Naked Capitalist' plus few other Quigley's venerable, hard to find works, all in good quality now come IN BUNDLE

It's not really that everything has to be a fucking conspiracy by the eiltes. It's when a global economy is so utterly doomed to fail in ways never even thought of by even the craziest conspiracy theorists...it's then that a big war is the only thing to 'fix' that little problem. And yes, 'fixed' by the elites.

It's in the history books. I gaurantee you that the biggest wars in history didn't just happen because a few dictators were ornary and wanted to burn the world and all the people in it. THAT is naive.

Was watching CCTV the other day (some English speaking Chinese news channel) and these two Chinese dudes were making the argument that the Cairo Declaration of 1943 and later the Potsdam Agreement clearly gave them rights to these islands. They just may have a valid point.

It's when a global economy is so utterly doomed to fail in ways never even thought of by even the craziest conspiracy theorists

Ain't it the truth, though resource nationalism is the next ism. Think the real question is who do the oil/gas corporations (ie. the One Bank) back? Actually, forget that, either way they win as resource prices will increase.

Correct - both sides have major economic dislocations coming dead ahead because of sovereign bankruptcy, massive unrepayable bank debt and fiat money malinvestments. Both sides need a war to distract the plebs who will suffer a large decline in living standards and will be looking for someone to blame for that. Better for them to blame an old foreign enemy than their own government's insane policies. War is the way for the political elites to maintain power through economic and social upheaval. Been that way for thousands of years. Those fucking islands have little to do with it.

Now find me a serf who is concerned about the airspace over the uninhabited bird shit rock, no there is not one serf anywhere who gives a fuck.

But hey let's go to war over it, says the GOVERNMENTS.

How many people have charg of such a decision? 10? 500?

Say a thousand on each side.

How could you really manage a thousand people in two countries without getting all knee deep in conspiracy shit?

Hmm. What if you controlled their money supply, and your managers of the day to day mechanics of doing so met routinely and made no attempts to hide it. Like a G20 meeting or some CRAZY TINFOIL SHIT like that.

pwned, bitchez.

Just death to the serfs and box seats for the elites who say go. Got nothing to do with conspiracy, just the way it is.

Call me wrong when Abe and his chi com counterpart are personally in a cage match to the death over this hugely important matter. I will stand corrected. Until then go fuck yourself.

Gee, like it's impossible for an armed populace and a free market to provide security. They would certainly be better than the doughnut munchers in swat gear that stand around outside schools while kids are being shot up.

Besides, the job would be considerably easier when the number one aggressor, government, ceases to exist.

"Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob ona farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out ofit is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common peopledon't want war neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter inGermany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of thecountry who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter todrag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascistdictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or novoice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked,and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing thecountry to danger. It works the same in any country."

hehehehe that's right headbanger.......your "wisdom" and "level headness" debunking the "conspiracy" is what we count on......without levelheaded peeps like you our game would never have been possible........hehehheheehe.......we thank you........

Alas.....such hostility........you're emotions are so predictable and its good to know that your reflexive peep response could be used as an example how manipulatable the ordinary sheeple behavior is for a well organized ponzi. Relax HB you've been owned your entire, pathetic life and you will pass into the hereafter never recognizing it.......you'll only have the feeling that "things just don't make sense".......hehehhehehhehe

“What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.” -- Billy Madison

After a major war there is a population boom. But who dies, the alpha males are wiped out, you then betas breeding but betas breed betas and they are a lot easer to manage. Look at what happens after ww2, that's what the social engineers really want.

The global elite, (ie "western banking/central banking parasites) realize they MUST keep China and Japan contentious. if those two ever treated eachother like brothers....they would sink the dollar "new york Fed" minute.

It would be the epitome of human folly to ignore the repetition of the same Wall Street financiers who have routinely inflicted financial chaos and abject poverty by debt upon the under-developed world for decades; who now have leading roles in enforcing national IOU’s in Europe which they created and are now devastating each nation; who created and manage the $17 trillion debt of the United States; who are additionally the putative recipients of hidden profit from their Federal Reserve Ponzi scheme that embezzles trillions of dollars from the U.S. government; who permeate and use the U.S. Treasury for their business enrichment; who are additionally major lobbyists and the largest campaign contributors for candidates.

The 2008 worldwide financial chaos started on Wall Street with a sudden realization Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) were junk bonds. European banks holding these securities panicked from devalued reserves. (do you think some European bankers told some NYC bankers they would be swimming with concrete boots if they did not buy $700 billion of toxic bonds real quick ?) Loans ceased to be available. Construction ceased while taxes from manufacturers and retailers plummeted. Tax revenue could not cover governments’ fixed expenses. Financial operations of European nations became managed by creditors to guarantee payments on loans while social programs and government salaries were slashed. Economists without a PhD would say a bubble burst.

Is there evidence the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) have similarly created debt in lesser-developed nations for decades and the same financiers are now moving up to European nations? Is this the advance of the New World Orderthat has been touted by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) for 50 years? Is the $17 trillion debt of the United States handled by the same financiers and is it now in the initial stages of collection? Has the major funding for these financiers for the past 80 years come from profit concealed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) which legally belongs to the U.S. government?

The answer is a collective YES.

The frustrating part is that the financiers received and hid the entire value of the U.S. debt when it was created but they will additionally ravish the U.S. when their fraudulent Ponzi scheme collapses.

The Four Horsemen of Banking (Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo) own the Four Horsemen of Oil (Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell, BP and Chevron Texaco); in tandem with Deutsche Bank, BNP, Barclays and other European old money behemoths. But their monopoly over the global economy does not end at the edge of the oil patch.

According to company 10K filings to the SEC, the Four Horsemen of Banking are among the top ten stock holders of virtually every Fortune 500 corporation.[1]

The Chinese have a point. If you look on a map it becomes quite clear they do not belong to the Japanese, and history shows they were taken from China. Even Okinawa was once Chinese along with Taiwan.
I don't much care for China in many things they do, but fair is fair, and China is right on this one.

You realize, your map-look paradigm would change the entire global country alignment. (Eg. Alaska, hawaii, falklands, greek islands, and hundreds of others). Not saying the deck doesnt need to be shuffled...but its not the driver

No, this is stating the obvious and not something absurd, like trying to say the channel islands are not US territory, or Hawaii or Alaska..
The Chinese are not asking for Okinawa, and never forget Taiwan will always be Mandarin speaking Mainlanders. At least those with power. The locals on that island are about as potent as the American indian. That is why China is re-writing the book on Chiang Kai Shek and the Nationalists.
Propaganda aside, those islands are China's.

The Falklands do belong to Argentina. Once again, look on the map. The Falklands British? It's so 1980's Margerat Thatcher.
Please. Just give them back to Argentina and take that silly name and put it on one of your off shore tax haven island shit holes for filthy rich arabs UK.

"If you look on a map it becomes quite clear they do not belong to the Japanese....."

They belong to whoever has the biggest and most guns and are willing to use them. It's not about maps or proximity. If that were the case why did America invade the Philippines? What gave America the right to the Hawaiian Islands? These things are all about gaining a strategic advantage over ones (perceived) enemies. For some reason, likely oil or natgas, the Japanese and Chinese think they have the "right" to these remote rocky outcroppings. I've always said that if oil was discovered in Havana Harbor that Cuba would become our best friend in the hemisphere and the embargo lifted in a New York second. Foreign policy is almost never about principle but rather national interests.

Foreign policy is almost never about principle but rather national interests.

Principle? No. But this government has never had MY interests at heart, so I'm doubtful about "national interests" too - unless and until someone defines precisely who the "nation" is, since it plainly doesn't include ME.

China is stepping up the heat on Japan and the US testing their resolve to hold these Islands. Recently, China made an attempt on Dec 5th to force a US Naval ship to halt that was monitoring China new carrier operations. Of course the US Navy refused the request to halt but had to make a drastic course change to avoid colliding with the Chinese Military Naval vessle. There is a game of chess going on between China, Japan, and the US Navies. Looks like cold war era type chess.

Less obviously: probably every east asian currency would crash as well as Western capital came flooding back home.

I'm assuming a war would end kinetically very quickly, and drag on with months of tension. A whole mess of stuff (like half a trillion in capital ships and base damage) destroyed within days. The "war" might continue for months or even years but it won't be continuously "hot". Japan could use that time to "break out" and become a nuclear power. (Is Abe looking for this as an excuse?)

Or I'm wrong and it ends when everyone's dead. In which case even more bearish for the currencies.

Because OTCs are not counted as assets, don't appear on any balance sheet and you can just make them vanish into thin air without causing massive collateral unwinding. You have in fact described the first stage of the meltdown that will make 1929 look like a mild correction.

"...you can just make them vanish into thin air without causing massive collateral unwinding"

Say what? It's interest rate derivative that are being used to control the T- bill market. Do you really believe that every financial instrument is just an abstraction with no connection to the physical world? With no consequences, regardless of how they performed? If that were really the case, they would never have been created in the first!

I politely request that you wake up ...before I hit you with this alarm clock.

You're still thinking like the buzzer. They can declare whatever they want, but there are still ramifications as the ripples of the splash spread wider and wider. Just what, for example, do you think such an event WILL have on the international value of the dollar...

The only thing propping up this whole show is the derivatives market. Its demise will destroy the tattered remnants of the petrodollar; thus, with nothing else left, the dollar,a and a great many other debt instruments will immediately revert to their true, intrinsic value: nothing.

Very much agreed. The law suits and clusterfucks arising from this could easily lead to the ultimate melt down. Once banks can't trust the check clearing function, it's all over. As Michael Milken said, "liquidity is always an illusion."

I just don't think China is a player here. Plastic toys and patent theft can be laughed off as a nuisance. When Japan, the dollar, or the Euro go down, it's over. Everything else is a chimpanzee act.

I've fussed at Buzz about bonds for a while, but he has been consistently right. They will do whatever the Hell they want, until it stops working. It's not that central bankers are fearless, or have inside information. They are just profoundly stupid.

You're entirely right to 'fuss with the buzz.' No doubt a fun guy, but he has a bad case of old-school normalcy bias.

But don't sell the Chinese short. Their agenda is that of BRICS. You have to take into account the combined assets of these countries, coupled with those lesser who are engaged in signing up for the new trading platform that is coming on line officially in the next year or so.

The US wanted to get a piece of the action in both World Wars. It's just that they didn't know how to get the US public to get along with the choices of the president at the time. And they came up with something. Sound familiar?

If the Fed prints money to buy $2 trillion in U.S. government bonds held by the Chinese, that would increase M1 money supply by $2 trillion. As of October, M1 was at $2634.80 trillion. Hence the Fed would need to almost double the money supply to buy the Chinese bonds, causing inflation, or let interest rates rise, bankrupting the U.S. government.

Not worthless. The Chinese have been using their holdings as collateral for purchases worldwide, already obtaining full value. Guess who gets left holding the bag if and when the Chinese choose to pull the rug out from under the US Treasuries market? The Chinese? Get serious. These guys play 'Go',' not Chess.

the chinese play 'go' and the usa plays 'go fuck yourself', which is exactly what will be played if and when china makes its pathetic attempt to pull any rugs out from under anything... the fed has the us treasury market completely cornered with qe and the fed is calling the shots... china can just fucking bend over whether they like it or not, they know this and that's why they're acting so ornery lately with the japanese, because there's fuck all they can do otherwise

Hold it!The next man makes a move, the nigger gets it!Hold it, men. He's not bluffing.Listen to him, men. He's just crazy enough to do it.Drop it! Or I swear I'll blow this nigger's head all over this town!Oh, Lordy, Lord, he's desperate! Do what he say! Do what he say!Isn't anybody going to help that poor man?Hush, Harriet. That's a sure way to get him killed.Help me, help me......somebody help me!Shut up!Oh, baby, you are so talented.And they are so dumb!

1) the Japanese government not only admitted that these islands were Chinese (since at least the 16th century) but was also plotting to grab them (and did so in 1895),

2) after WW2, when the US was in control of the Diaoyu Islands, Japan signed a document promising to return them to China, which was never fulfilled,

3) in 1972, the US handed over their "administration" to Japan,

4) the Japanese nationalized the islands in September 2012, only a day after a summit between then Chinese President Hu Jintao and PM Yoshihiko Noda, and this after Hu had told Noda not to change the status quo, and

5) the Obama administration issued another "redtarded line", affirming it would support Japan in the event of a war over the islands.

Sounds to me like the Japanese are desperate for moar groath at any cost (including war), the US is playing its usual role of meddling bully, and the Chinese are justifiably pissed off.

The Japanese have been played as shit-stirring pawns against China by the Jesuits since the Meiji Restoration in the mid-1800s (including the Japanese takeover of Manchuria in 1932). So, no surprise that the Bonesmen are egging them on again now....

yep. that's where the head of the snake is. but for some, it's more convenient to blame the jews, who are used as the cover for the hofjuden, who, in turn, are the useful cover for the vatican's back office, the jesuits.

the "head of the snake*" is too small for the intellectually inaccurate so its easier to focus on the larger body of humanity that is drug behind the snake's head. (*The Jesuits/Vatican, The Crown and the City of London/Rothschild, etc...)

I've been pissing on all this as Kabuki Theater and Boolshitso, but their own rhetoric and threats can get away from them. What worries me is that both sides don't seem to think they have much to lose from a "small symbolic war". Much the way World War I started. Gawdhelpus.

This dispute, despite the nationalistic rhetoric, is about oil and gas reserves thought to exist in huge quantities in the seabed surrounding the Senkaku Islands. Up until 2005, China and Japan were negotiating joint exploration/drilling between Chinese and Japanese companies. Those negotiations fell apart in 2005, ostensibly because then PM Koizumi's official visit to the Yasukuni Shrine which honors 2.5 million Japanese war dead, including soldiers who had committed atrocities in China (long a diplomatic sticking point).

Who knows the real reason why the negotiations broke down. That said, currently, there are many American/international oil companies sitting on the sideline waiting to see who gains sovereignty over the islands. Maybe they are tired of waiting. Just saying....

In the immortal words of William Shakespheare, And Caesar's spirit, raging for revenge, With Ate by his side come hot from hell, Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice. Cry "Havoc!" and let slip the dogs of war, That this foul deed shall smell above the earth. With carrion men, groaning for burial.

or in the words of the Dead Kennedy's, The companies think it's time we all sit down, have a serious get-together and start another war

The internal ramifications of China plunging into a Sino/USA war or too unpredictable and risky for the Communist Party.

Whilst they will get lots of support from individuals they have stirred up Japan hatred in, and those with nationalistic pride, there will be hundreds of millions not the least bit willing to give up little gain they have made this past 20 years. The Communist Party risks losing the level of control that they now have, they could permanently weaken themselves.

Likewise a real war will see hundreds of millions in China suffer through lack of supply of fuel and food due to the likely restrictions war would bring...again a big risk to Party power.

Japan will rely on the USA to defend its shores, and I doubt China would go for bombing Tokyo...as the result would be the bombing of Beijing etc...that is an escalation that can't happen. Also China can put a nubmer of subs off the coast of the USA...but will never launch an attack since the counter attack would render be catestrophic as the US has much more powerful force projection.

I don't see too much in it for China. They can knock out some Japan military assets, but that is about it...they cant escalate beyond that unless they have all gone insane and want to nuke Japan...and be nuked in return.

Japan's mates make war a pointless and face losing exercise for China.

Methinks the Wild Wicked West is much more concerned and worried about Eastern neighbours agreeing to be supportive of each other for that would really wreck and wrek havoc on their [Western capitalist] ponzi schemes and QE scams.

Does anyone ever consider technology? How can one be declared a winner without using every card available up to and including nukes? What would be left of the two of them? I guess we'll find out. And of course the fucking US will be right in the goddamn middle of it im sure. NO! YOU CANT DO THAT!

The truth is always oblique to appearances. Japan is merely a proxy for the U.S. I believe the real issue here is that the Pentagon policy of 'full spectrum dominance' is being pressure-tested by the Chinese, who increasingly hold the better hand. I feel the Chinese are therefore attempting to demonstrate to the Japanese that the U.S. cannot be trusted to come to their aid when push comes to shove. The purpose is not to go to war with Japan, but to bring it into the Asian economic sphere AS an Asian country and not as a Western colony. Personally, I love Japanese formal culture, but the arrogance of the Japanese crime families --just as here in the US-- really does need to be tied to the whipping post.

Ultimately, all this will be resolved soon in the economic sphere as the Pentagon is cut off at the knees by a dollar devaluation triggering a hyper-inflationary domestic epoch. As in the case of the USSR, some troops will even be left stranded as the tide of empire abruptly recedes from its global beachheads out of sheer necessity.

Let us say the dollar does go under and the USA spirals into collapse. Listen to me, whatever happens in America will be 100x worse in the BRICS, Africa, South America...the world would collapse and we would begin WW3. The world is changed, it's 2014. Everything is connected on so many levels. Everything is controlled. The United States represents a very large portion of that control. We have not reached peak control...wait, now im just raving...