We Are Heading Toward A Frightening Fall/Winter Economic Collapse

Submitted by IWB, on August 19th, 2013

10 Year Bond Shakedown Continues: Rate Hits 2.873%

It’s all about rates this largely newsless morning, which have continued their march wider all night, and moments ago rose to 2.873% – a fresh 2 year wide and meaning that neither Gross, nor the bond market, is nowhere near tweeted out. As DB confirms, US treasuries are front and center of mind at the moment…. the 10yr UST yield is up another 4bp at a fresh two year high of 2.87% in Tokyo trading, adding to last week’s 20bp selloff. As it currently stands, 10yr yields are up by more than 120bp from the YTD lows in early May and more than 80bp higher since Bernanke’s now infamous JEC testimony. We should also note that the recent US rates selloff has been accompanied by a rapid steepening in the rate curve. Indeed, the 2s/10s curve is at a 2 year high of 250bp and the 2s/30s and 2s/5s are also at close to their highest level in two years.

Repurchases, or repos, are part of the non-bank, or “shadow banking,” sector. Banks use repos to help finance investments in Treasuries, corporate bonds and mortgages-backed securities. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

Regulations aimed at reducing the risk of another financial crisis are starting to upend a key part of the bond market that expedites trading in everything from Treasuries to junk bonds.

The U.S. repurchase, or repo, market where banks and investors borrow and lend Treasuries and other fixed-income securities shrunk to $4.6 trillion daily outstanding last month, down 35 percent from a peak of $7.02 trillion in the first quarter of 2008, based on Federal Reserve data compiled from its 21 primary dealers.

“We have so much event risk over the next six weeks: tapering, German elections and a decision on the Japanese consumption tax. Markets are going to be incredibly volatile,” Paul Krake, founder of Hong Kong investment firm View From the Peak: Macro Strategies.