May 8, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

…SYNOPSIS…
WEAKLY PHASED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES LYING ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RELATIVELY COMPACT SFC CYCLONE ATTACHED TO THIS BOUNDARY TRACKS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO…THE CONUS SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN. FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS…MARITIME TROPICAL AIR — EARLIER SHUNTED TO SERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS — WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS CYCLOGENESIS IS FAVORED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF A CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.

…PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY…
A PRE-FRONTAL LLJ WILL SHIFT NEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE. ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LLJ. IN THEIR WAKE AND E OF THE WEAKENING FRONT…DIABATIC HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER — E.G. MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS — WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE BUOYANCY. A BAND OF 45-55-KT H5 SWLYS GLANCING THIS BUOYANCY WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ORGANIZE INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED STORMS…AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES…MAY EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF AR TO THE MID-SOUTH WHERE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER AND BUOYANCY WILL BE STRONGER. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING…AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER BUOYANCY RELATED TO EARLIER PRECIPITATION AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

…PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU / TX HILL COUNTRY / SOUTH TEXAS…
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND DIURNALLY DEEPENING SOLENOIDS ALONG AN E/W-ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING. STRONG BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL. HOWEVER…WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW RELEGATED TO HIGHER LATITUDES…DEEP SHEAR JUXTAPOSING THIS BUOYANCY WILL ONLY BE MODEST POTENTIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE…WEAK DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE SVR COVERAGE. ACCORDINGLY…SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.