Ten 2012 Electoral College predictions have Obama ahead

Storified by Digital First Media · Mon, Nov 05 2012 13:20:17

With the clock ticking down to Election Day, most political prognosticators see President Obama winning re-election, though his Electoral College count varies from 281 — just 11 votes over the 270 needed to win — to 332, below his 2008 win but still a healthy margin.

The nine predictions below agree on a few swing states: Romney will win North Carolina; Obama will win Nevada, Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire. They differ on Colorado, Virginia and Florida, however.

Drew Linzer: Obama 332, Romney 206

Dropbox

On his website Votamatic, Emory University political science professor Drew Linzer predicts a strong showing by Obama, with 332 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 206. The map puts Romney-leaning North Carolina and Obama-leaning Florida as the closest calls, but even if he won both Romney would still lose in this projection.

Josh Putnam: Obama 332, Romney 206

Blogspot

Davidson College political science professor Josh Putnam gives Obama 332 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 206, although that includes 81 Obama-leaning tossups, enough to swing the election to Romney if they weren’t in the president’s column.

Sam Wang: Obama 303, Romney 235

Princeton

Sam Wang, a statistical analyst for the Princeton Election Consortium, projects an Obama win with 303 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 235, with Romney picking up Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, but Obama picking up swing states in the West and Upper Midwest.

Nate Silver: Obama 303, Romney 235

Imgur

On his 538 blog on the New York Times’ website, statistician Nate Silver projects a decent Obama win with 303 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 235, with Obama doing well in the West and Upper Midwest and picking off Virginia while Romney does well among the Southern states.

Scott Elliott: Obama 290, Romney 248

Electionprojection

On his website Election Projection, independent conservative analyst Scott Elliott projects a narrow Obama win with 290 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 248. He gives Southern swing states to Romney but sees Obama doing better in the South with his Midwestern firewall holding.

Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire.

Swing states for Romney: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

Real Clear Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248

Imgur

In its “no tossups” map, political website Real Clear Politics projects Obama winning the West and Upper Midwest, but Romney cleaning up in the South for a narrow Obama win of 290 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 248.

Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire.

Swing states for Romney: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

Larry Sabato: Obama 290, Romney 248

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics also projects an Obama win with 290 Electoral College votes. His map shows Obama winning out West and in the Upper Midwest while Romney cleans up in the South.

Denverpost

Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio.

Swing states for Romney: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.

Talking Points Memo: Obama 285, Romney 191, tossup 62

Imgur

Liberal leaning website Talking Points Memo puts President Obama over the top with 285 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 191, but still leaves Ohio, North Carolina and Florida as tossups. The final margin could range from Obama 285-Romney 253 to Obama 347-Romney 191, but either way Obama’s a winner in their map.

Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire.

Tossups: Ohio, Virginia, Florida

DeSart and Holbrook: Obama 281, Romney 257

Uvu

Utah Valley University political science professor Jay DeSart and University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee government professor Thomas Holbrook project a narrow Obama win at 281 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 257. Their model gives a lot more swing states to Romney, especially in the South.

Swing states for Obama: Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa.

Swing states for Romney: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado.

Andrew S. Tanenbaum: Obama 281, Romney 215, tossup 42

Electoral-vote

Computer scientist Andrew S. Tanenbaum, a professor at Vrije Universiteit in the Netherlands, projects on his website an Obama win with 281 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 215, but leaves open how wide the margin may be by leaving Virginia and Florida as tossups, or “ties” in his words.