Monday, 6 January 2014

Despite the equity indexes being weak across the day, the VIX merely melted lower, settling -1.5% @ 13.55. The market remains effectively fearless, and VIX looks set to slip into the 12s..even the 11s by the end of this week - when the sp'500 might be at new highs.

vix'60min

vix'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX remains low..and looks set to remain in the mid/low teens until late Jan/early Feb.

The only issue is whether the VIX can briefly push into the low 20s in Feb...which increasingly looks overly difficult.
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The main indexes closed moderately lower, sp -4pts @ 1826. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -0.8% respectively. The broader trend remains to the upside, and there is the opportunity for the equity bulls to push for a weekly close in the 1850s.

sp'60min

Summary

Arguably the most notable aspect of today, was that despite the indexes closing moderately lower, so did the VIX.

Frankly, price action looks pretty strong. The last few days is probably just a standard ABC retracement lower.

Maybe we'll drop early Tuesday to 1820/18...not that it matters much. With sig' QE this Tuesday..and Friday, we'll surely battle back into the 1840s later this week, if not even the 1850s.

I do see a short term top..somewhere in the sp'1860/80 zone...perhaps by middle of next week. From there, maybe 3-4% lower, but probably not <1810/00
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The morning drop to sp'1823 might well be the floor of this sub'4 wave - of a very large 3. Regardless of how we open tomorrow, there looks to be very viable sig' upside into the 1850s by the Friday close. Metals look weak, with Gold now just +$2. Oil continues the down trend, -0.7%

sp'60min

FB, daily

Summary

*The VIX remains notable, in the red, whilst lower indexes. That is never a good sign for the equity bears.
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The levels are pretty clear..bulls need >1832, whilst bears need <1810/00 to have any hope of something significant, and I sure don't believe that is the case.
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Notable strength, FB, +4%, a break into the 60s looks viable in the current cycle.

3.42pm.. well, we're not going to close >1832..so..it keeps open the door to 1818 early tomorrow.

If we get down to 1820/18 tomorrow morning..it makes for the easiest buying opportunity of the year so far!

The minor weak chop continues, with the market stuck in the mid sp'1820s - a mere 1.5% from the historic highs. VIX remains -1%, and is reflective of a market that has zero concern for at least another week or two. Metals are losing their gains, Gold +$1, with Silver now --0.4%

sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

Regardless of where we floor in the indexes, the bears look set to get nailed later this week, and a weekly close in the 1850s looks very viable.

There is simply no real power on the downside, and this is arguably a pretty standard ABC retracement.
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Notable strength: FB, +3%.
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2.08pm.. a daily close >1832..would arguably break the down trend, and confirm the floor is in.

As it is, still risk of further down wave to the 1818 fib target, but really, that is very minor in the scheme of things, and I sure won't be trading it.

2.38pm.. very marginal situation..bulls just need >1832...and bears are toast.

Mr Market looks on track to hit the 38% fib retrace @ 1818, of the recent wave from 1767-1849. With the first sig' QE-pomo due tomorrow, equity bears face the usual problems. The fact the VIX is currently red, along with negative indexes should be considered a further warning.

The market remains on a gentle slide, and is teasing the bears into the rather bizarre notion that the top for 2014 is already in. Yeah..sure. Good luck with that. A weekly close in the sp'1850s looks very viable. Metals remain a little higher, but the broader trend remains clearly bearish.

sp'60min

Summary

*interesting price structure in DRYS and RIG..but more on those later.
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So..we're a little lower...as expected..and this is most probably just a little C wave. Whether we get stuck at 1824, 20..or 1818.. it really doesn't matter.

By end of this week, market has a very reasonable chance of breaking new historic highs, with a weekly close in the 1850s. If that is the case, then a little blow-off top in the 1860/80 zone is viable by middle of next week.

The main indexes are continuing to see minor price chop, but with a touch of underlying weakness. The sp'500 looks set to slip into the afternoon, first target is 1825/24, but there is almost equal likelihood of a brief move to the fib' zone of 1820/18. Latter week significant upside is then expected.

sp'60min

VIX, daily3

Summary

*despite the index weakness, it is notable that the VIX is marginally red. I'd look for the VIX in the 12s later this week, but that is not a very bold call.
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Not much to add. There is notable weakness in DRYS and TWTR.

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I just noticed the first update of the year from Oscar

Not surprisingly he is bullish, but hey...so am I.

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..and there is the break...sp'1828.....no reason why we won't just slowly slip into early Tuesday..before the first major QE-pomo of the year kicks in.

No doubt, a lot of bears are getting lost in hysteria..and will get nailed later this week. Oh well....Darwinism..I guess you could say.

11.20am.. sp'1824.. first target hit....and the fib zone of 1820/18...likely by late today/early Tuesday.

A weekly close in the 1850s...very viable. Bears...beware!

11.29am.. DRYS testing the big $4 threshold..an effective back test..after the break into the low $5s.

Upside to 6/7..seems viable from here..only issue is whether double digits, by late spring, when Mr Market should be around sp'1950/2050.

Good morning. The opening gains have failed, and the door is open to weakness into early Tuesday. Natural fib' downside is the 1820/18 zone, which could mark a small C wave. Broader upside is still expected later in the week. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$6

sp'60min

sp'weekly8

Summary

Well, here we go again, and this is a full week..so..things should be a lot of more active!

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Notable weakness: DRYS, -4.5%, TWTR, -5.9% , although it has to be said, those levels of price moves are not unusual for either stock.

10.03am.. first downside target is around 1825/24, but no reason why we won't fall a further 6pts or so.

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