The SplitTrader.com Sunday 05/27/2001 2 of 2
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=================================================================
In This Candidate Newsletter:
=============================
Watch List
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Monday's Candidate Play-of-the-Day -CEFT
Weekly Play Results (05/21 - 05/25)
=============================
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==========
Watch List
==========
The following stocks are on our radar screen. We are watching
them for further developments before we add them to our Current
Play list.
Splits to Watch
FHCC - First Health Group $49.70 -1.06
WHY WE LIKE IT: FHCC has been riding its 20-dma higher since
3/23/01. For the last three weeks, however, it has been forming
a pennant between $50 and $55. We like the way the broader
healthcare sector (HCX.X) has been holding up, even given the
fact that there has been some renewed interest in technology.
FHCC's MACD has been trying to roll negative, but is being held
back by the continued bounces off the $50 level. Lastly, FHCC
has set a 2:1 split that will be payable to investors on 6/25.
We are hoping for a breakout from the current pennant formation
in response to increased interest in the split.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: If FHCC can close above $55 on volume
of at least 450,000 shares, we will move the health benefits
provider over to the Current Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: In our last write up we mentioned that FHCC
might have to retest $50 before heading higher. Well, on Friday
FHCC retested $50 and then some. The $50 level failed to hold
and FHCC closed below our bail out point of $49.50. Thus, we
will be dropping FHCC from the Watch List on Tuesday.
===
LNCR - Lincare Holdings, Inc. $55.15 -0.36
WHY WE LIKE IT: This supplier of home medical equipment (oxygen,
respiratory therapy, etc) has been putting in the base to rival
all bases. It has essentially been trading between $50-$60 since
last December. Looking at a weekly chart, it becomes more
apparent that this base is actually a large symmetrical triangle
formation that begs for an upside breakout. LNCR's MACD has been
vacillating between issuing a buy and a sell signal, so once we
get a clear buy signal, it may be off to the races. LNCR is due
to split its shares 2:1 on 6/25/01, so hopefully this will create
enough hype to cause an upside breakout of the current base.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: If LNCR can close above $61.06 (its
previous closing high) on volume of at least 800,000 shares, we
will move the healthcare equipment provider to our Current Play
list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: For its opening act on the Watch List, LNCR
drifted slightly lower on weak volume of only 280,000 shares
traded. LNCR typically trades an average of 600,000 shares/day.
Given the lack of interest, LNCR took the path of least
resistance lower. However, we are still very encouraged that
LNCR can break to the upside soon, as the base is narrowing.
LNCR has been trading between $52-$57 for the past three weeks,
so something is bound to snap. If LNCR breaks out to the
downside, we will watch the stock only as far as support at $50.
Candidates to Watch
ACS - Affiliated Computer Systems $71.70 +0.15
WHY WE LIKE IT: After gapping higher on 4/27, the provider of IT
products and services has been basing between $69.25 (the bottom
of the gap) and $74.00. As the stock has been moving sideways,
volume has been trending lower. This tells us that ACS is ready
to pop. The stock has tested support at $69.25 three times and
has held (on a closing basis) each time. In addition, the MACD
is starting to roll positive, which could be a sign that a new
uptrend is near. Lastly, as companies start increasing their
tech budgets, they are likely to first spend proportionately more
on their IT infrastructures.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: A close above $75 on volume of at least
600,000 shares would prompt us to move the IT provider to our
Current Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: ACS eked out a small gain of $0.15 on Friday
amid lackluster trade. We can be encouraged by the fact that ACS
didn't loose ground, since all the indices headed lower on
Friday. However, we are not going to read much into Friday's
move because ACS traded only 180,000 shares. If ACS loses
momentum next week, we will watch the IT provider only as far as
its 40-dma, now located at $68.26.
===
SRDX - SurModics, Inc. $53.70 +0.28
WHY WE LIKE IT: SRDX is up about 68% since the first of the
year. While it may seem like the stock should now be oversold,
we think still has upside potential. To this end, SRDX has been
building a tight base formation since 4/27/01 and now looks ready
to make a run towards $60. Volume has been dropping off as the
stock moves sideways and its MACD is about to issue a buy signal.
Lastly, SRDX's OBV has remained strong even as the stock takes a
rest. This is a good sign that buyers are still supporting the
stock.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: If this chemical manufacturer for the
medical industry can close above its previous high of $57.15 on
volume of at least 110,000 shares, we will add it to our Current
Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: SRDX continued to march higher on Friday,
gaining $0.28 on weak volume of 63,000 shares. We will see if
SRDX can start next week where it left off this week, that being
on a up trend. SRDX's will issue a buy signal with one more up
day like Friday's so we remain encouraged that it can hit our
trigger of $57.15 soon. However, if we were wrong about SRDX, we
will keep watching it only as far as support at $47.25.
Momentum Stocks to Watch
FO - Fortune Brands $32.96 -0.30
WHY WE LIKE IT: This diverse holding company sells everything
from golf clubs to whiskey. We like the fact that it has been on
a strong up trend since last July. It is now coming up against
resistance at $35, but if it can clear this hurdle on strong
volume, we think it has a good chance at reaching $45. We are
now just a sand wedge away from this resistance level and given
the recent double bottom that the stock put in, we think it has a
good chance at finally conquering this pesky barrier.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: If FO can close above $35 on volume of
at least 750,000 shares, we will clear a spot on our Current Play
list for this momentum stock.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: FO seems to be imbibing in some of the whiskey
that it produces. It keeps swooning lower, but finally found
support just above its 50-dma of $32.87 on Friday. We are now
just $0.54 away from leaving FO to its hangover. We will
continue watching FO as far as support at $32.40.
===
WMI - Waste Management $27.41 -0.41
WHY WE LIKE IT: WMI spent most of 1999 and all of 2000 tracing a
large saucer formation (like a cup, but more shallow). Since
early 2001, the stock has formed a five-point wide base that also
closely resembles an inverse head and shoulders continuation
pattern. In addition, if WMI breaks above $28.50, there is no
upside resistance until the $40 level. Now that the market is
improving WMI may have the institutional support to break out of
its six-month base.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: If the garbage company can close above
$28.50 on volume of at least 2 million shares, it will become
sweet smelling to us and will earn a spot on our Current Play
list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: We didn't get the volume we needed for shares
of WMI to make any headway through upper resistance on Friday.
We won't read too much into WMI's move lower, but will make sure
that the stock holds above $27 at the start of next week's
trading. If WMI can't hold $26.50 next week, its into the
dumpster for our refuse play.
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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================
The PLAY LEGEND:
SplitTrader.com Candidate Play Recommendations.
Candidate Play-of-the-Day is our number one candidate
recommendation for the following trading day.
Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Drops are closing plays that we feel have lost the advantage.
You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked
Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average
At the SplitTrader.com website, we have comprehensive profiles
for each stock that we are playing or have played in the past, as
well as hundreds of others. Please take the time to visit the site
to view the profile of the stock(s) you wish to learn more about.
==================================================================
=========
NEW PLAYS
=========
NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 05/27/01
============================
None
NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 05/27/01
==================================
BJ - BJ's Wholesale Club $48.31 (+4.46)
The promise of an improving economy has lit a fire under the
retail stocks and BJ has been no exception. The company has
employed a solid strategy that has enabled BJ's Wholesale Club to
produce excellent profits. The current quarter is expected to
net the company $0.49 in profits, which would be a nice increase
of seven cents, or 17%, over the same quarter a year ago.
Friday's modest rally could have been sparked by the announcement
that the company's board has approved an increase of $50 million
to the company's current stock repurchase plan. Last week's
rally all started when BJ gapped above its 50-DMA of $45.25.
This price is now the major support and we have therefore set our
initial stop just a little lower at $45.10. BJ closed just below
the new all time high of $48.55. This price provides very mild
resistance and new positions might initiated when BJ trades above
this price, especially if we see first hour trading volume over
200,000 shares. A gap up on Tuesday to over $50.00 may result in
a little pullback in the early going. The MACD and Money Flow
are both very strong and portend of more gains for the stock.
The RSI is approaching an overbought indication but there is
still rally room.
Picked on May 27th @ $48.31
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $45.10
===
CEFT - Concord EFS Inc. $50.60 (+3.49)
If you made a retail purchase or an electronic funds transfer
within the last week, chances are that Concord EFS, Inc. had a
hand in it. CEFT facilitates financial transactions. The company
acquires, routes, authorizes, captures, and settles non-cash
payment transactions for retailers and financial institutions.
The stock has spent almost three months consolidating in the $42-
$48 range after gaining 226% from the 3/9/00 intra-day low of
$15.31 to the all-time high of $49.93 on March 5th. The stock
finally broke out its trading range on Monday and the move was
followed up with record highs on Tuesday and Friday. We believe
that CEFT could continue to move higher and we are also looking
for a split announcement with the July earnings release. The
company approved an increase in its authorized shares from 500
million to 750 million at its Annual Meeting on Thursday. CEFT
has 243 million shares issued so the company has more than enough
shares for a split. The stock is currently trading above historic
split range and the company likes to split its stock. Since 1994,
CEFT has declared six 3:2 splits when the stock was trading in
the $30-$40 range. From a technical standpoint, CEFT has support
at Tuesday's intra-day high of $50.10 with stronger support at
$49.48, the 5-dma. Resistance is Friday's intra-day high of $51
and then possibly $52 or $53. Traders should look for entry
points on a bounce off of $50.10 or a breakout above $51 on
volume greater than 2 million shares by noon. We plan to set
stops at $46 as downside protection.
Picked on May 27th @ $50.60
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $46.00
NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 05/27/01
============================
None
=======
UPDATES
=======
SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 05/27/01
===============================
APPB - Applebee's $43.72 (-0.38)
Investors continue to snack on the restaurant stocks even as the
NASDAQ and S&P 500 move lower. On Friday, shares of APPB gapped
higher at the open and moved north for most of the session. It
wasn't until the last five minutes of trading that we saw any
real selling pressure come in, and this was probably just a
result of the day traders going flat for the long weekend.
Looking at the bigger picture, APPB has become a little extended,
and may churn around the $60 level next week. We will make sure
that the 20-dma at $43.30 continues offering support and that the
MACD does not continue to roll negative. In addition, any new
positions should not be considered unless APPB can close above
$60 on volume of at least 450,000 shares to ensure that buyers
are still supporting the stock.
Picked on May 15th @ $43.20
Change since picked +0.52
Stop Loss @ $40.50
===
PKI - PerkinElmer $72.39 (-0.43)
PKI is one technology stock that managed to finish Friday's
general profit taking session with a gain. PKI did find support
in the early going at $71.00. There is additional support at the
10-DMA of $70.25. If this second level of support holds this
week, PKI could stage an advance into its June 1st 2:1 split
date. PKI's recovery from the April lows could be extended if
the stock can trade through last week's resistance of $76.25.
Traders might be particularly interested in buying PKI if it can
trade above $76.25, accompanied by midday volume over 300,000
shares. If we see a strong environment for technology stocks
this coming week, a potential breakout for PKI could take the
stock to the resistance provided by the 200-DMA of $85.22. The
MACD is positive and the RSI has pulled back from a level that
had previously suggested an overbought condition.
Picked on May 17th @ $70.12
Change since picked +2.27
Stop Loss @ $67.00
===
SDS - SunGard Data Systems $59.85 (-1.06)
SDS managed to salvage a rough week by bouncing off its 20-dma
and ending Friday's session with a slight gain. Although the
$0.14 gain was nothing to write home about, it may have been
enough to stop the momentum that had been building to the
downside. However, we still need watch for further slippage, as
SDS's MACD just rolled over and issued a sell signal on Friday.
In addition, shares are also close to breaking down through SDS's
short term up trend line. We will look for the 20-dma at $58.92
to continue offering support into next week. At this point,
traders may want to wait for SDS to show some strength before
initiating new positions. By this we mean a breach of the old
closing high of $62.65 on volume of over 900,000 shares.
Picked on May 16th @ $62.00
Change since picked -2.15
Stop Loss @ $58.40
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 05/27/01
=====================================
ASD - American Standard Companies, Inc. $65.66 (+0.21)
American Standard Companies, Inc. posted a small gain on Friday
despite a generally weak market. Shares of ASD traded to an
intra-day high of $65.73 before pulling back to a close of $65.66
on volume of 335,000 shares. The stock has made three consecutive
higher highs coupled with higher lows and it has fallen back in
line with the long-term upward trend. ASD could be ready for a
slow and steady move to new highs. Until then, the stock has
support at Friday's intra-day low of $65.34 with additional
support at $64.57, the 10-dma. Resistance remains unchanged at
the May 18th intra-day high of $66.50 and then $68. Look for a
bounce off of $65.34 or a breakout above $66.50 on midday volume
greater than 250,000 shares before opening new positions. Our
stops are holding steady at $63.50.
Picked on May 6th @ $62.50
Change since picked +3.16
Stop Loss @ $63.50
===
AYE - Allegheny Energy, Inc. $53.65 (-0.15)
Looks like someone wanted to get out of the office early. On
Friday, Allegheny Energy, Inc. was hit with a round of profit
taking early in the session. Three large trades accounting for
17% of the day's volume crossed the tape during the first hour of
trading. The combined trades totaled 116,700 shares at an average
price of $53.79. Unfortunately, the stock could not recover on
the lightest volume day of the year. AYE ended the session at
$53.65 on volume of 674,000 shares. The stock closed below the
10-dma for the first time since April 20th, so AYE may spend some
time consolidating in the $53-$55 range. For now, support has
fallen to Friday's intra-day low of $53.40 with stronger support
at the May 11th intra-day high of $53.05. Resistance is the 5-dma
at $54.42 and then the all-time high of $55.09. Trader may
consider entry points on a bounce off of $53.40 or a move above
$54.42 on volume of at least 225,000 shares by noon. We are
keeping our stops at $53 to lock in gains.
Picked on April 29th @ $50.60
Change since picked +3.05
Stop Loss @ $53.00
===
BKH - Black Hills Corporation $57.27 (+1.33)
Profit taking extended to the very strong utility sector on
Friday and BKH pulled back a bit with the rest of the group.
Nevertheless, BKH did enjoy a solid week and could easily
continue its rally this coming week as we approach the peak
electricity usage months of summer. Most analysts believe that
2001 is going to be a record year for BKH. Consensus estimates
are calling for the company to post profits of $3.42 when the
fiscal year ends in December. Therefore, BKH is only trading
with a forward P/E of 16.7, which offers investors a relatively
good value for their capital. BKH struggled to move above its
recently established high of $58.50 during the last two trading
sessions. If this resistance can be broken this week, BKH could
make another nice move. Therefore, traders might want to go long
if BKH trades through $58.50 with midday volume exceeding 90,000
shares. Be careful if BKH gaps up to $59.25 or higher on the
open because the stock could pullback and reward patient
investors with a better entry price. In the event of a pullback,
BKH may find initial support at the 10-DMA of $55.81. The MACD
is solid and rising, which suggests that there could be some more
upside potential left in this stock. The RSI continues to
suggest an overbought condition but this condition is not as
severe as it had been last week.
Picked on May 20th @ $55.94
Change since picked +1.33
Stop Loss @ $52.25
===
HRB - H&R Block $59.72 (+1.26)
Even though HRB spent most of the week drifting lower, it still
managed to close the week in the black, due in large part to
Monday's strong $3.25 up day. The good news regarding the four
down days in a row that followed Monday's pop is that they all
came on descending volume. This tells us that the sellers in HRB
don't have much conviction behind their actions. In addition,
the minor pullback has formed a small flag pattern that could
lead to another bullish breakout, should the broader market
decide to cooperate next week. Going into next week's trading,
support should come in at $59.35, and then lower at the 10-dma of
$58.83. Resistance remains at the high of $61.75. We will also
be watching to make sure that the MACD, which is perilously close
to issuing a sell signal, does not roll over on us. Traders
wishing to initiate positions in HRB could look to do so on a
bounce off $59.35, or a break above the high of $61.75 on volume
of at least 600,000 for the day.
Picked on April 18th @ $52.85
Change since picked +5.87
Stop Loss @ $57.50
===
KRI - Knight Ridder, Inc. $55.63 (-0.38)
Knight Ridder, Inc. has posted losses in each of the past three
sessions. On Friday, shares of KRI dipped to an intra-day low of
$55.34 before bouncing back to a close of $55.63 on light volume
of 318,000 shares. The stock has put in three consecutive lower
lows and KRI is in danger of developing a short-term downward
trend. On the positive side, the stock was able to recover after
a test of the 20-dma. Going forward, support is the 20-dma at
$55.32 with additional support at $54.56, the May 16th intra-day
low. Resistance is holding at the 5-dma, now down to $56.50, and
then Wednesday's intra-day high of $57.60. A bounce off of $55.32
or a move above $56.50 on midday volume greater than 250,000
shares may be possible entry points. We are leaving our stops at
$54 to limit potential losses.
Picked on May 20th @ $56.01
Change since picked -0.38
Stop Loss @ $54.00
MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 05/27/01
===============================
BUCA - Buca, Inc. $24.79 (+1.80)
BUCA eased off its all time high on Friday. However, it did so
on volume of only 64,000 shares. This volume is low enough to
just about disregard Friday's move entirely. The only technical
reading of substance that we can gain by Friday's action was that
Thursday's record high close of $25.15 did serve as some
resistance. We won't jump to any conclusions, however, until
next week's trading commences on Tuesday. We will note that most
restaurant and leisure stocks had strong bids on Friday.
Although, this is not surprising either, as these stocks have
been strong all month. Traders interested in starting new
positions in BUCA should look to do so if BUCA can close above
Thursday's closing high of $25.15 on volume of at least 350-
400,000 shares traded. We are keeping our stops at $21.30 in
case BUCA serves up a bad meatball.
Picked on April 24th @ $25.15
Change Since Picked -0.36
Stop Loss @ $21.30
===
GTK - GTECH Holdings Corp $37.40 (+0.79)
GTK has been a very strong stock during most of 2001.
Fundamentals have been driving the surge. Analysts expect the
company to grow its earnings by 32% this fiscal year. Clearly
the demand for lottery systems is one area of the economy that is
not suffering a slowdown. Last week, GTK began trading in a very
narrow range between the newly established high of $38.18 and
$36.59. The stock may make a more substantial move this week if
it can trade through either end of the trading range.
Consequently, we have decided to raise our stop to $36.40 to help
protect our profits in case GTK drops below the support.
Otherwise, traders may want to consider adding to positions if
GTK can move above $38.18 accompanied by midday volume exceeding
170,000 shares. The RSI is still indicating an extremely
overbought condition. This fact does not eliminate the
possibility that GTK can keep moving higher in the short term.
However, one should probably be cautious if GTK starts to pull
back.
Picked on April 22nd @ $29.79
Change since picked +7.61
Stop Loss $36.40
===
SCH - The Charles Schwab Corp $20.80 (+1.35)
Schwab is starting to recover on hopes that this market rally is
for real. If it is, no doubt trading activity will start to pick
up from the abysmal trading environment we saw earlier this year.
Schwab has taken great steps to try and keep the company's record
growth in tack by slashing over 3,000 jobs recently and
concentrating more on its asset management business, which is
less reliant upon commissions. SCH's long base that extends back
into mid-April has resulted in solid support at $18.75, which is
why we have set our stop just a little lower at $18.50. SCH
could break out of the current trading range if it can trade
above the $21.59 resistance. Momentum traders might push the
stock higher if the breakout is accompanied by first hour trading
volume exceeding 1 million shares. An extended rally may
eventually drive the stock to test some longer-term resistance
found just above $26.00. An extended rally would become more
likely if the MACD can turn positive this week. We also like the
fact that the Money Flow has been slowly trending higher. The
RSI has plenty of upside potential before the stock would be
considered overbought.
Picked on May 2nd @ $21.18
Change since picked -0.38
Stop Loss @ $18.50
=====
DROPS
=====
SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 05/27/01
=============================
None
SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 05/27/01
===================================
None
MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 05/27/01
=============================
None
PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===============
Sunday, May 27, 2001
=============================
CEFT - Concord EFS Inc. $50.60 (+3.49)
Sunday's Comment:
If you made a retail purchase or an electronic funds transfer
within the last week, chances are that Concord EFS, Inc. had a
hand in it. CEFT facilitates financial transactions. The company
acquires, routes, authorizes, captures, and settles non-cash
payment transactions for retailers and financial institutions.
The stock has spent almost three months consolidating in the $42-
$48 range after gaining 226% from the 3/9/00 intra-day low of
$15.31 to the all-time high of $49.93 on March 5th. The stock
finally broke out its trading range on Monday and the move was
followed up with record highs on Tuesday and Friday. We believe
that CEFT could continue to move higher and we are also looking
for a split announcement with the July earnings release. The
company approved an increase in its authorized shares from 500
million to 750 million at its Annual Meeting on Thursday. CEFT
has 243 million shares issued so the company has more than enough
shares for a split. The stock is currently trading above historic
split range and the company likes to split its stock. Since 1994,
CEFT has declared six 3:2 splits when the stock was trading in
the $30-$40 range. From a technical standpoint, CEFT has support
at Tuesday's intra-day high of $50.10 with stronger support at
$49.48, the 5-dma. Resistance is Friday's intra-day high of $51
and then possibly $52 or $53. Traders should look for entry
points on a bounce off of $50.10 or a breakout above $51 on
volume greater than 2 million shares by noon. We plan to set
stops at $46 as downside protection.
Picked on May 27th @ $50.60
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $46.00
================================================================
Weekly Play Results (05/21 - 05/25)
================================================================
Plays Beginning Price Ending Price Gain/Loss % Change
----- --------------- ------------ --------- --------
APPB $44.10 $43.72 -$0.38 -0.86%
ASD $65.45 $65.66 $0.21 0.32%
AYE $53.80 $53.65 -$0.15 -0.28%
BKH $55.94 $57.27 $1.33 2.38%
BMET $44.27 $43.00 -$1.27 -2.87%
BUCA $25.15 $24.79 -$0.36 -1.43%
DCI $30.77 $31.63 $0.86 2.79%
GTK $36.61 $37.40 $0.79 2.16%
HRB $58.46 $59.72 $1.26 2.16%
ITG $53.89 $51.40 -$2.49 -4.62%
KRI $56.01 $55.63 -$0.38 -0.68%
LEA $37.60 $35.00 -$2.60 -6.91%
PKI $72.82 $72.39 -$0.43 -0.59%
SDS $60.91 $59.85 -$1.06 -1.74%
TTC $45.85 $44.88 -$0.97 -2.12%
SCH $21.18 $20.80 -$0.38 -1.79%
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