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Yesterday’s EU summit lived down to the market’s low expectations, with few concrete measures agreed, leaving analysts to talk up the chances of a Greek exit.

The next meeting is on June 28 and 29, meaning that fresh Greek elections will take place on June 17 with no firm public guidance from officialdom on what the EU will do if the poll fails to return a majority of MPs committed to the austerity programme.

The usual mood music pervaded the meeting, with attendees reiterating their desire for Greece to remain in the euro. Meanwhile, French president Francois Hollande refused to discuss the chances of a Greek exit because doing so “would send a signal to Greece and the market”.

Thursday morning's reaction was uniformly negative, with few observers heeding Hollande’s call for reticence. Citi analysts wrote that they believe that there is now a 50% to 75% likelihood of a Greek exit in the next year or two, an eventuality they said they try to incorporate in their forecasts.

Tim Stevenson, manager of a €1.7bn European equity fund at Henderson Global Investors, said that Greece’s departure is “now far more likely than before the Greek election”.

He wrote: “Very simply, if the Greeks vote to elect a leader who intends to ignore the deals done with the IMF and the EU last year, then Greece will be forced out.”

EU president Herman van Rompuy made broad-brush commitments to a three-pillar approach to growth across the union, focusing on enacting existing legislation, increasing lending by the European Investment Bank and promoting employment measures at a national level,

But market participants were unimpressed, arguing that the policies that might actually make a difference to the current crisis remain on the backburner. While eurobonds, a common bank resolution facility and an EU-wide deposit protection scheme were all mooted, politicians are far from agreement.

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The next meeting at the end of June will be the starting point for negotiations, but agreement on these policies is considered unlikely.

Events could, of course, force the politicians’ hands.

Henderson’s Stevenson believes a Greek exit would could accelerate European integration: “Think bank deposit guarantees for all of Europe (ex Greece), ECB cutting interest rates again, stimulus programmes and – crucially – the effective ending of fiscal independence as all countries abide by the clear ‘Handbook of How to Run a Modern Economy’. I would think that eurobonds issued by the euro members [would] become the norm.”