But it’s not just the VIX that is falling. Implied volatility has also plunged in the emerging markets today. The CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Indexhas dropped 4.3%, while CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has dropped 5.1%.

And volatility is expected to remain low for the next three to six month, according to risk-management firm Axioma.

In a report released yesterday, Axioma notes that predicted volatility, a forward-looking measure of risk, plunged during the fourth quarter of 2012 in regions as far flung as the U.S., Europe and emerging markets. Forward-volatility for the Russell 1000 (IWB) index, for example, fell to 15% from 16.3%, while the FTSE Europe Index fell to 13.6% from 18.4%. Emerging markets, in the form of the FTSE Emerging Index–now tracked by the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO) exchange-traded fund–saw predicted volatility fell to 15.5% from 18.9%.

The one exception: China. The predicted volatility of theChina CSI 300 index rose to 18.8%, from 17.6%–even as the index itself rose 11.9%.

What’s going on in China? Part of the reason for the rise in risk was the rapid increase in the index, Axioma’s Melissa Brown said in an interview. “If prices shoot up quickly, that affects risk estimates,” she says. Another possibility: The decline in risk seen in Europe had less of an effect in China because concerns about the strength of the world’s second largest economy retained their primacy.

If nothing else, that means investors should be ready for a wilder ride than they might get elsewhere–even if the market rises.

The iShares FTSE China 25 Index ETF (FXI) has gained 1.1% today, and has returned 2.5% this year.

About Emerging Markets Daily

Emerging markets have been synonymous with growth, but the outlook for individual nations is constantly changing. Countries from Brazil and Russia to Turkey face challenges including infrastructure bottlenecks, credit issues and political shifts. Barrons.com’s Emerging Markets Daily blog analyzes news, data and research out of emerging markets beyond Asia to help readers navigate the investment landscape.

Barron’s veteran Dimitra DeFotis has been blogging about emerging market investing since traveling to India and Turkey. Based in New York, she previously wrote for Barron’s about U.S. equity investing, including cover stories and roundtables on energy themes. Dimitra was among the first digital journalists at the Chicago Tribune and started her career as a police reporter at the Daily Herald in the Chicago suburbs. Dimitra holds degrees from the University of Illinois and Columbia University, where she was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow in the business and journalism schools. She studies multiple languages and photography.