Thursday, June 7, 2007

Pete Burrows is a nice enough guy. And he's right: I DO have a crystal ball. Not gonna go into that right now, but I know what's going on in Cupertino.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has made a lot of big calls about Apple in the past few years--in particular, the time in November, 2004 when he was the first to suggest AAPL shares could go to $100 based on burgeoning iPod sales. The stock was at $52 at the time.

Fact. Wish I could own aapl, cause I would've bet the farm on it and I'd own an island right now. Anyway he's just buttering me up so he can take his little pot shot (notice how all the n00b analysts hang on my every word).

Now, I think Munster will open the floodgates for other analysts to publicly air what they might privately be thinking. True, most of the analysts I spoke with think Munster's belief that Apple can sell 43 million phones in 2009 is over the top. That would imply that Apple goes from zippo to 30% or more of the smart phone market in two years; Nokia, Moto, RIM and others might have something to say about that. But most seem to believe that 20 million is doable in 2009--and none were quite willing to totally dismiss the idea that the number could rise to 30 million.

Here's your big mistake Petey: the iPhone is not a smartphone killer, it's a category killer. If you had my crystal ball, you'd know that. And I'll likely raise that estimate after the iPhone launch.

So is Munster nervous about walking so far out on a limb on this closely-watched stock? If so, I couldn't tell.

That's because I'm dead right. When was the last time I was wrong on aapl Pete?

1 comment:

Anonymous
said...

When was the last time munster got nervous about anything? Gene, I hope you get your island right next to SJ's. His will be a little bigger, of course, but you'll be close enough that you can mooch free iPhone wifi from him.