Hurricane Florence inching toward NC as scramble to prepare continues

Sept. 11--Ken Graham, director of the National Hurricane Center, put Hurricane Florence into perspective during an update on the storm's progress Tuesday morning.

"After 24 years in this industry, this one really scares me," he said.

Hurricane Florence, which meteorologists are predicting will make a direct hit on North Carolina later this week, is currently listed as a Category 4, classifying it as a major hurricane which has the potential to cause significant damage or loss of life, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of Tuesday morning, the storm was centered about 900 miles southeast of North Carolina.

Officials said Tuesday morning the storm's wind speeds had decreased to about 130 mph, but it was expected to strengthen and grow throughout the day following an eyewall replacement cycle.

According to prediction models from the National Hurricane Center, the storm is expected to make landfall between the Virginia Beach area and Charleston, South Carolina. The predicted path of the storm shifted slightly north overnight, and the eye of the storm appeared to be headed directly toward the Surf City area north of Wilmington as of Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds, which are predicted to blow up to 50 mph in Davidson County, are expected to reach the area at the earliest by midday Thursday. Winds are most likely to reach the area Friday morning at around 40 mph. These winds extend outwards of 170 miles from the center of the storm, meaning they will affect Davidson County even before the eye of the storm nears central North Carolina.

The hurricane, which is expected to make landfall Friday morning, will begin to weaken and slow as it travels across land. The eye of the storm is now predicted to reach Davidson County by Sunday morning, having decreased in strength to a tropical depression with maximum wind speeds of 39 mph.

Forecast models are also saying the storm could possibly get "stuck" over central North Carolina as the storm system's speed slows, raising the risks of flooding.

With the storm dumping heavy rains across the state, storm surge watches have been issued for the entirety of the North Carolina coast including the Pamlico and Ablemarle Sounds. Farther inland, flooding and high winds are a concern and hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued.

Davidson County is likely to see at least 4 inches of rain as the storm passes, with neighboring counties receiving six or more inches, according to the National Hurricane Center. Significant rainfall increases the risk of flooding, particularly in low-lying areas. High winds and tornadoes are also a concern.

Residents in Thomasville, Denton and parts of northern Davidson County should be especially vigilant for flooding as these areas are known to see high water during past storms.

State and county preparations

Late on Monday, President Donald Trump approved Gov. Roy Cooper's request for a Federal Disaster Declaration, which should help speed up FEMA assistance following the storm's passage through North Carolina. This declaration joins Cooper's declaration of a state of emergency, which was made on Friday.

The state has also begun mandatory evacuations along the coast in all of the barrier islands as well as Beaufort, Dare, Pamlico and Tyrrell counties. Atlantic, Indian, Emerald Isle, Pine Knoll Shores, Ocracoke, Carolina, Kure, Wrightsville, Topsail, Currituck Outer Banks, Oak Island and Holden beaches have also been evacuated.

"Get ready for Florence now," warned Cooper. "We cannot expect this storm to pass over in a matter of hours."

The North Carolina Department of Transportation has begun preparations in all 100 North Carolina counties, according to a press release from the governor's office. Trucks, chain saws, front loaders, motor graders, backhoes, barricades, road closed signs and high water signs are all ready to be dispatched throughout the state should the need arise.

Rep. Larry Potts also posted a statement online Monday which indicated 200 National Guard troops have been activated to help make preparations for the storm throughout the area.

Additionally, the State Emergency Response Team has activated the Joint Information Center in Raleigh, which will continue to manage storm preparations and response.

Davidson County's Emergency Services held a meeting Tuesday morning with representatives from area school systems, the Department of Transportation, all municipalities, emergency departments and utility providers. Maj. Alton Hanes, the county's emergency management coordinator, could not be reached Tuesday for comment regarding how the meeting went.

The county has yet to release information on if or where shelters will be set up.

More information on preparations will be available as emergency departments continue to meet throughout the week. Residents can receive real-times updates and information by signing up for the county's CodeRED alert system at https://public.coderedweb.com/CNE/en-US/BFFFE65DACB9.

School closings

The three county school systems have yet to make a decision on any school closings due to the storm and do not expect to make those calls until at least Wednesday evening, Dr. Catherine Gentry, superintendent of Thomasville City Schools, said Monday.

The Thomasville district released a statement online Tuesday morning stating that administrators are watching the forecast closely. Any announcements on school closings there will be made available through social media, local media, the district website and automated calls.

Dr. Anitra Wells, superintendent of Lexington City Schools, said Monday that administrators were holding planning meetings to prepare the district for any potential impacts.

Davidson County Schools cancelled all after school activities for Thursday and Friday.

"As future weather conditions become more readily predictable, decisions regarding any additional potential schedule interruptions will be announced. At this time, we are monitoring the situation," the school system said in a statement. "School district personnel is working very closely with Davidson County Emergency Services personnel to prepare for potential impacts. Additionally, school level personnel has instructions for securing their campuses."

Lexington City Schools had not made any statements on the storm as of Tuesday afternoon.

Davidson County Community College officials had not made any decision regarding the storm on Tuesday.

East Carolina University canceled their classes beginning on Tuesday afternoon, and other colleges have followed their lead. UNC Wilmington even issued a mandatory evacuation for all students beginning Tuesday morning.

N.C. State will suspend normal operations beginning Wednesday evening, UNC Chapel Hill will move to its adverse weather plan beginning Tuesday night, Duke University has canceled classes after Wednesday night, UNC Greensboro has canceled classes as of noon on Wednesday, High Point University has canceled classes on Friday, North Carolina Central University has canceled classes beginning Wednesday morning and Elon University canceled classes Thursday and Friday.

Power outages

Duke Energy posted a statement for its customers in the Carolinas Tuesday regarding the incoming storm and the potential damage and power outages it could cause.

The statement detailed company efforts to prepare for the storm including bringing in out-of-state crews, checking equipment and securing assistance from other energy companies to assist in restoring power should outages occur.

"Restoring power after a massive storm can be extremely challenging for utility repair crews, as travel and work conditions can be impacted by high winds and widespread flooding -- making repair work lengthy and difficult," the statement said. The company is making efforts ahead of the storm to limit the repair times.

"From the utility standpoint, all of our crews will be in, we have contract crews as well and our tree trimmers will be in," said Lexington City Manager Alan Carson.

"We'll all be here, all operational. We can't get people up until the wind breaks or slows down. That's one of the things people don't understand. You can't put a guy up in a bucket truck with the winds that strong," Carson explained of why power restoration can take time.

Should widespread outages occur in the city, Carson said crews will be dispatched to substations to repair damages before moving to repair outages in the city at hospitals, city buildings, restaurants and gas stations, Crews will then spread out from the city's commerce districts into residential areas.

The city's water and sewer plants each have backup generators, which have been tested and are functioning properly, Carson said. The natural gas pipelines are not a large concern during this storm, he added.

"Were in pretty good shape as far as utilities, you just never know what you're going to get," Carson said.

Lexington Utilities customers can report outages on the city's website or by calling (336) 248-2337. The utility will strive to provide power outage updates on social media approximately every two hours throughout the storm.

EnergyUnited echoed similar messages in a release sent out on Tuesday.

"We are carefully monitoring this weather system and are prepared for possible power outages in any of the 19 counties that we serve throughout North Carolina," said Wayne Wilkins, chief executive officer of EnergyUnited. "We urge everyone to prepare now by making a plan, assembling an emergency kit and following the instructions of local officials."

EnegryUnited crews were working to check equipment and stock trucks with necessary materials for repairs. Customers, however, should be prepared for the possibility of prolonged outages, the release said.

To report outages in the EnergyUnited service area, call 1 (800) 386-4833.

Remember, electricity can be dangerous. If you see a fallen power line, avoid the area and call 911.

County fair schedule changes

Vinnon Williams, chairman of the Davidson County Fair, said organizers are not yet sure if the hurricane will affect the fair, which is set to begin on Monday.

"I think if we have any effect, it will be the first couple of days. Right now we're setting up and we're getting ready for the fair and we'll just have to play it out as it goes," he said.

"It could be as late as Monday before we make a decision whether we open or not. There's too much invested -- time, work and everything -- to call it off if we don't have to. If we called it off, it's an absolute must," Williams explained.

Home preparations

Emergency management officials recommend residents be prepared for up to 72 hours in their homes without power. Food, water, medications, clothing, important documents and other emergency supplies are all practical items that should be packed in an emergency kit.

Pet owners should purchase extra food and supplies, update collar tags with important information and all outdoor animals should be brought inside.

Ensure that all outdoor furniture is secured or brought inside prior to the storm. High winds could send these items flying. All outdoor belongings should be secured before tropical storm force winds reach the area, as outdoor preparations can be made difficult in these conditions.

With the declaration of a state of emergency by the governor, North Carolina's price gouging law is in effect. This law prohibits businesses from taking advantage of the storm to raise prices on essential goods, according to a press release from the office of Attorney General Josh Stein. The law will remain in effect until the state of emergency is lifted.

AAA of the Carolinas released a statement Tuesday warning residents of potential gas shortages ahead of and during the storm. According to the statement, demand for gasoline increases as the storm nears, primarily due to panic buying. Areas along the coast are already seeing shortages. Gas prices could briefly spike due to the demand increase, but gouging laws should limit this trend. Residents should be sure to fill up a vehicle, just in case.

More information about the storm's path and strength will be released as it nears the coast. For the latest updates on Hurricane Florence visit hurricanes.gov.

The Dispatch website will be dropping its paywall through Monday so residents can read all storm updates without restriction. For up-to-date hurricane coverage, check our website or follow our coverage on Twitter using #FlorenceDCNC.

Elizabeth Pattman can be reached at (336) 249-3981, ext. 213, or at [email protected]. Follow Elizabeth on Twitter: @LexDispatchEP