Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120818
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS/SERN
STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY ONE PERIOD. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ALBERTA INTO MT.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CENTER ACROSS ERN NEB AT 12/12Z WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY SWD INTO TX BY 13/12Z. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE SWD ACROSS NEB/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND REACH A NRN KY
TO NRN OK TO SWRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER
THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SERN STATES. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS AND/OR SEASONABLY DRY VEGETATION AND STRONG WINDS/LOW
RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SRN STATES
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SERN
STATES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...SUSTAINED
WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH
AHEAD OF RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS/SERN STATES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC...AND A MODERATELY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE REGION. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 80S OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE SERN STATES. RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO COMMENCE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THUS...MOST AREAS OF THE SERN STATES/SRN PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SRN TX/SRN LA...WILL SEE MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW RH
READINGS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 2O-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THIS REGION THAN FOUND YESTERDAY. MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-30 PERCENT
WILL BE COMMON. THUS DESPITE SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH...A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
..CROSBIE.. 03/12/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120822
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
AIDED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW
ENGLAND STORM SYSTEM. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 14/12Z. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. THUS DESPITE
MODERATE SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH...MIN RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE 35 PERCENT OVER THIS WHOLE REGION. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SRN TX.
...SRN TX...
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL AID IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S. DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S WILL PROVIDE FOR VERY LOW RH READINGS
FROM 10-20 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..CROSBIE.. 03/12/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...