The purpose of this blog is to present statistical analysis and subjective observations of basketball in an effort to define how teams win. Before answering which players help teams win more, first, we want to seek to answer how the five players on the floor for each team interact and play most efficiently together, offensively and defensively. What is the Winning Chemistry?

Monday, August 13, 2012

Teams face a perplexing dilemma:
while they would like to have players who can do everything and do everything
very well, that is just not realistic and there has to be some give somewhere. With
my research studying the effect of the standard deviation of certain statistics
among the players in a lineup on offensive efficiency, I have worked to
identify where it is best for teams to make this sacrifice. This research can apply to all teams,
whether a small market team and/or one limited in its resources and available
talent that needs to make more out of less, or a team with all the talent and
resources at its disposal who wants to get more out of its players.

My research, interpreted here with
regard to half-court offense, makes two primary arguments: (1) teams should
take more threes and evenly distribute them among the players in each lineup
(i.e. teams should spread the floor with multiple shooters) and (2) the role of
initiating the offense should be narrowly defined, limited to few players[1].

Ultimately, the evidence is
compelling that teams should follow one overarching principle for maximizing
offensive efficiency: narrowly focus the role of initiating the offense[2]
where they can create the greatest advantage and threat to score (whether at
the rim off penetration or through the post), and surround that facilitator/ball-handler
with capable three-point shooters[3]
with the athleticism to rebound[4]
as well as attack and finish strong at the rim with the space created through ball movement.

It follows that this facilitating player
should lean towards passing the ball if he cannot get something easy at the rim
or get to the line, rather than settling for mid-range shots. The research also supports the notion that
subsequent players receiving the ball should also lean towards making the extra
pass, if
the open three is not available or he cannot get to the rim or line. The result is an efficiency-friendly more even distribution
of assists and even distribution of uncontested three-point jump shots and good
shots at the rim. These values are
reflected in various forms of the motion offense.

Also, whereas three-pointers should
be attempted liberally, teams should take a more focused and conservative
approach to mid-range shots, with fewer players taking fewer attempts.Ideally, a team will get everything at the
rim, line or from three off the catch.Any other jump shots or shots from mid-range in general, should be
focused on a specific few who are the most efficient in that role (e.g. Kevin
Garnett in Boston) and preferably be off the catch.

For example, during the 2012 NBA Finals, LeBron James initiated almost everything for Miami, and
was surrounded by multiple shooters who hit threes off the catch (whether on a
pass directly from James or after multiple effective passes).They also performed much better when James
stopped taking mid-range shots[5];
the role of taking mid-range jump shots, which were few and far between, fell
squarely on Bosh, and at times Haslem, off the catch and, when necessary, Wade off the dribble. Battier filled the position of role player
particularly well, bringing strong defense, a nose for the ball and extra
possessions and, most important to the offense, unselfish play and consistent
and reliable three-point shooting when the opportunity came to him through the
offense.

In 2011, the Dallas Mavericks went
almost exclusively through Nowitzki in the high post, or off penetration to the
rim, often off of screens, and usually from Barea and to a lesser extent Terry, consistently creating good shots.They
moved the ball as a team and got each other uncontested shots at the rim or
from three. They had numerous players in each lineup that hit the three reliably off
the catch[6],
and had athletes who rebounded and defended well especially around the rim,
earning the team valuable possessions[7].

Teams should be careful not to overvalue
the ability to initiate offense or create one’s own shot. The skill often
goes to waste when spread among numerous players, where some are simply better
at creating than others.Teams need to
capitalize on the comparative advantage that the best facilitators in their lineup
provide. In other words, once a team has
a player, maybe two per lineup, who are already very capable facilitators, it
is to their benefit to focus on surrounding those players with others whose
strengths of shooting the three off the catch and athleticism to defend,
rebound and attack off the space created through the offense to finish at the
rim are maximized at the expense of their ability to facilitate or create their
own shot.

The ideal lineup might include one,
two if possible, of the best possible facilitators, who can defend, rebound,
and hit the three well (or some combination of those skills if all three are
not possible) and surround him/them with high-character, high-effort unselfish athletes
whose strengths include defending, shooting the three reliably and consistently,
and the athleticism and skill to rebound well and, with space created through ball movement, get the ball to the rim to
finish or get to the line[8].

Granted, such a lineup might be a bit
idealistic, but the argument remains that teams will be more successful if they
abide by the ideologies outlined above by maximizing three-point
shooting, defense, rebounding and athleticism at the expense of the ability to
create or score in isolation.

Ultimately, I feel the motion
offense, particularly the dribble drive motion offense[9],
is the type of offense most resembling that described by the findings of the
research, with
great emphasis on shots coming at the rim, line and from three[10], and
a narrowed focus on where the ball starts.

[1]Of course, fatigue and the opposing defense can at times
dictate where it may be best to initiate the offense.So, although just one facilitator may be
necessary, it doesn't hurt to have a second capable facilitator in a lineup,
who, when needed, can create an advantage and force help, allowing for ball
movement and uncontested threes and shots at the rim for teammates.

[2]Focusing
the role of facilitator is promoted by the finding that a less even
distribution of turnovers is preferred.Although a more even distribution of assists is preferred, I interpret
this to simply mean that the assist does not only come off the first pass from
the facilitator, but off any number of subsequent passes until a preferred shot
attempt is found.

[3]The
relationship between offensive efficiency and the ratio of three-point attempts
to total field goal attempts supports shooting more three-pointers relative to
two-point jump shots.The finding that a
more even distribution of three-point attempts supports having as many reliable
three-point shooters as reasonable. I
inferred from the findings regarding the distribution of field goal attempts,
three-point field goal attempts and two-point field goal attempts that these
three-point attempts should come at the expense of mid-range two-point attempts,
as opposed to two-point attempts at the rim.

[4] A more even distribution is
preferred for both offensive rebounds and defensive rebounds.

[5] I would like to add a note here
specifically about LeBron James’ maturation this past season and want to make sure to praise his growth since I was so
critical of his performance in the 2011 Finals.In the 2012 NBA Playoffs, and particularly in the NBA Finals, he truly
showed how much he has grown as a player by focusing his game on what he does
best; attacking the rim and passing the ball.Almost every possession went through James, whether he was threatening
to attack the rim through dribble penetration or through the post.He was successful in getting to the rim and
the line at a high rate, and when he couldn’t, often because he was doubled, he
moved the ball to teammates resulting in open three-point attempts.James’ mid-range jumpers became fewer and
farther between (with the exception of Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals
where he was knocking down everything), and he finally took full advantage of
his strengths to not only create easy opportunities for himself, but his
teammates as well.

[6] Nowitzki, Terry, Kidd, Barea,
Stevenson and Cardinal were all capable and reliable three-point shooters off
the catch for Dallas in the NBA Finals, helping the team spread the floor.

[7] Marion and Chandler were
particularly effective around the rim and on the boards earning additional
possessions, but also, Kidd brought his defensive leadership and strong
rebounding at the guard position while promoting unselfish offensive play with
his passing, and others like Barea and Stevenson added aggressive perimeter
defense.

[8] And players who shoot well from
three tend to shoot well from the line, too.

[9]Created by Vance Walberg, and implemented by John Calipari
among others, the dribble drive motion offense focuses on creating lanes for
penetration, a primary ball handler or two who initiates the offense and ball movement,
downhill penetration for other players, well-defined shot selection, moving the
ball with passing and spacing the floor with shooters.Downhill penetration is off the pass and
in the direction of the player’s motion.The downhill penetrator is not breaking down the defender like the
player initiating the offense; rather they are simply beating their man without
ball-stopping, using the space created through the offense.

[10] This is the mentality of “3 or
Key.” Getting to the rim results in high percentage shots at the rim and
opportunities at the free throw line, while also drawing defensive attention to
take advantage of spacing to get open looks from three.

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About Me

Nima is a graduate of the University of San Francisco Sport Management Masters program, an attorney with a J.D. from the University of California Hastings College of the Law, and a graduate of UCLA with a B.S. in Physics. He is also an assistant coach for the San Francisco City College Men's Basketball team, focusing on running advanced statistics to give the team an edge. He has done work for an NBA team and is a consultant in sports analytics. Nima can be reached at nshaahinfar@gmail.com.