martes, 15 de diciembre de 2015

D6: A Venezuelan political tsunami: Meaning, Impact and Outlook

As we digest the meaning and impact of the elections of D6 we should keep recording our impressions. These are my impressions ten days after the event, with the help of some excellent legal analysis by reputed Venezuelan lawyers:

1.December 6th
Venezuelans took to the polls and converted a legislative election into a presidential
plebiscite. It became an opposition landslide of great proportions. The night of
the election Maduro and his group of civilian and military accomplices tried to
distort the results but action by still unidentified members of the Armed
Forces obliged them to accept the will of the people. The Defense Minister, presumably
in the Maduro plot, was forced to become the spokesman of the institutional
members of the military.

I. MEANING

2.Politically, this vote
represents the beginning of the end for the so-called Bolivarian revolution, meant
to be a socialist, popular revolution but ending in almost complete national ruin.
With a 2/3 majority in the National Assembly, the opposition now has the constitutional
authority and the popular mandate to start dismantling the chaotic political
structure erected by Chavez. Among other things the Assembly can revoke the
designation of current top bureaucrats who were not legally selected. According
to Allan Brewer Carías, a prestigious Venezuelan constitutionalist, they would
include the current members of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the members of
the Moral Power and the members of the National Electoral Council, since all of
them were named by a simple majority of the current Assembly, in violation of
the Constitution.

Brewer Carias also lists other steps that the
new Assembly can take:

3.The new National
Assembly can reform or replace laws related to the Communal Councils to make sure that these communal
organizations are subordinate to the municipal system and not parallel entities
which threaten to replace the existing constitutional structures.

4.The new Assembly can and should make sure
that there is effective separation of the Executive, Judicial, Moral and
Legislative powers, a separation which had disappeared during these last 16
years.

5.The new Assembly will
be able to dictate a Decree of Amnesty to secure the freedom of all political
prisoners. President Maduro could
disagree and send it back. The Assembly will send it again, this time approved.

6.The new Assembly will
have the authority to exercise effective control over the national budget, over
the doings of the ministers and state-owned agencies and companies. This
control had essentially disappeared in the past 16 years. The Assembly in the
hands of the government had renounced its legislative duties in favor of the
Executive.

7.The New Assembly will
have the authority to revise all international agreements, contracts and
commitments, including the subsidized oil to Cuba, the loans from China. I
would love to see Pastor Maldonado’s contract with LOTUS cancelled.

8.If, by any chance, the
moribund National Assembly passed any law, the new Assembly can, after January
5, its installation date, modify or nullify such a law. According to the
Constitution any law can be superseded by a new law according to the
constitution.

9.The new Assembly can
convoke all ministers for interpellation. If they are censored by the 2/3
majority they will be expelled from their jobs.

10.The president will not be able to travel out of the country
for more than 5 days. This will give him time to get instructions from Raul
Castro but not much more.

11.Any future loans to the government will have to be approved
by the new Assembly

12. January 6-10 Maduro
will have to present to the new Assembly his State of the Union. And the same
will apply to his ministers. I would love to be there in first row.

13.The Venezuelan Central Bank will have to present its report
to the new National Assembly. This will be entertaining.

14.The president of the Assembly sits in the National Defense
Council, which has to render a full report. That should also be
entertaining.

The new legislators have already presented to
the public their proposed legislative Agenda, including emergency components,
such as these:

·Guaranteeing immediate accessibility to food and medical
supplies

·Reversing expropriations done by the government

·Eliminating State monopolies of public services, such as
water, electricity, airports, telecommunications

·Promoting the financing of public works with the help of
multilateral banking and private investment

·End the monopoly of the state in the media

·Promote private construction of low income housing

·Investigation on money laundering and repatriation of illegal
capitals

·Investigations of all components of the public
administration.

II. IMPACT

The short term Impact can be significant in the area of human
rights and in reshaping the Venezuelan political landscape, both domestic and
international.

In the field of human rights a legislative decree (rather
than a Law) of General Amnesty is already in draft form.

International reactions:
The Cuban government has congratulated
President Maduro for his “acceptance” of the results. The Foreign Ministry of China has
officially stated that they expect Venezuela “to maintain stability and
growth”. Russia produced a declaration from the foreign ministry stating that
the new legislative majority should be recognized and asked for the coordinated
work of the executive and legislative powers. Secretary of State John Kerry
expressed the wish of the U.S. for a constructive cooperation between the
Presidency of the country and the new National Assembly. Former Brazilian
President Lula da Silva said: “Maduro should accept that democracy means
alternation”. In other words, as
analyst E. Otálvora has noted, the international political actors who influence
Venezuela the most have essentially abandoned Maduro.

The impact on the medium term can be significant in the
political and economic sectors by placing Venezuela, again, within the
civilized community of nations. A possible suspension of petroleum supplies to
Cuba and Petro Caribe could be made sooner than later.

The long term impact is difficult to pinpoint but there is
little doubt that Venezuela will progressively dismantle the set of policies
instituted by the Chavista regime. Regardless of who is in power Venezuela
might no longer be a prominent actor in the energy field, due to the nature of
its hydrocarbon deposits and the results of the Paris Meeting on global
warming. Venezuela might have to reinvent herself.

III.
OUTLOOK

THERE ARE TWO MAIN DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENARIOS IN THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE, in simplified form:

1.RECTIFICATION BY THE
EXECUTIVE AND DIALOGUE WITH THE OPPOSITION

2.CONFRONTATION

All that has been said by President Maduro, so
far, points to a confrontation. The results of the elections, the mood of the
nation are clearly against him. By choosing to fight he could be ousted. The
Armed Forces have apparently decided they will enforce the will of the people.

2 comentarios:

Thanks for sharing this, Gustavo Coronel.Whatever they do, this new National Assembly will have to avoid being seen as co-governing with the Maduro regime. And their actions must have immediate good results for the population, not just show politics.Regarding "the results of the Paris Meeting on global warming" are, fortunately according to me, nothing, just show politics.Global warming stopped with the El Niño of 1997/98 and nobody knows what will come next.

This was an excellent review of the implications of the December 6 elections and a logical preview of the possibilities for the immediate future.

I believe that Maduro has no choice but confrontation. Under any circumstances in which he might choose to cooperate with the opposition the level of criminality attained under his mandate and that of his predecessor will be revealed to such a degree that so many prominent Chavistas will either flee the country or end up in jail.