Most major averages had a potential "one-day reversal" today. This pattern
is best seen on a candlestick chart, where it is sometimes referred to as a
"shooting star" pattern. If you look at the chart below, notice the "tail" at
the top of the daily chart. This "tail" sticks up on top of the "body" of the
structure.

If you are not familiar with candlestick charts, here is how to read them.
The top of the entire structure is the high for the day (or whatever other time
period you are using), and the bottom is the low. The thicker part (the box)
in the middle brackets the opening and closing prices. If the box is white,
the top of the box is the closing price. If the box is black, the bottom of
the box is the closing price.

Some technicians would say that one requirement was not met with today's pattern.
A perfect shooting star would have a closing price below its opening price.
In other words, the box is white rather than black as it should be to be a perfect
shooting star. But my experience is that this requirement is not crucial to
indicate a top, especially when you see the pattern after an extended upward
move.

Sometimes after such a pattern, you have couple (or a few) days of pullback,
then a rally to a very modest new high, then the correction begins in honest.

Because the market is overbought, sentiment figures show too much optimism,
the bull market is two years old, and stock prices are generally expensive - there
is a good chance that this signal is significant. How significant? Well, it
is possible that you may not see these prices again for 4 years. I would put
the odds of this at perhaps 60%.

I also would call your attention to a comment by Rich Bernstein of Merrill
Lynch. Rich is a terrific market strategist. He is quoted in the "Wall Street
Journal" on Monday November 8 as saying, "We expect a virtual tsunami of
downward estimate revisions over the next several quarters (it seems to have
already started!)"

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