Liveblog: Apple’s Q3 2013 earnings call

This quarter brought lots of big announcements but few new products.

It's that time again: Apple is set to reveal its financials for Q3 2013 on July 23 at 5:00pm Eastern (2:00pm Pacific). As always, we'll be here to liveblog the conference call.

This quarter brought a wealth of Apple product announcements, many of them highly anticipated—iOS 7 and the completely redesigned Mac Pro are standouts. And while OS X 10.9 doesn't look like as big of an overhaul, it does introduce quite a few new features. You can't sell announcements, though, and the actual new products made available during this quarter—the new MacBook Air, a low-end iPod touch, and 802.11ac AirPort Extremes and Time Capsules—aren't exactly huge growth drivers for the company.

As a result, many analysts are expecting Apple's sales to stay even or drop slightly as high-profile products like the iPhone 5 and both iPads approach the end of their refresh cycles. Some also anticipate profits to drop even if sales stay the same, reflecting lower average selling prices for some products and lower profit margins on popular devices like the iPad mini.

Whatever happens, we'll be liveblogging the announcements and the analyst Q&A session as they happen. Check this post (or the post linked to that big orange button down there) in 24 hours to join the fun!

Sadly, not a hard prediction. Apple could have record growth in all segments, post groundbreaking profits and 'analysts' would still say they failed to meet analyst expectations (i.e. infinite growth and profit that can only be expressed using a new sort of mathematics).

The stock will rise up to the announcement, and fall briefly afterwards. As it does every time.

Interesting. Slightly Off Topic. It seems the date shown above the count actually reflect the time and date in my region. How does it do that? I mean how does check my location or time locale?

I'm pretty sure that there are only three possible explanations:

1) Coincidence: you just happen to be in the time zone they picked for displaying the page. (Not likely, I know.)

2) Your IP address reveals your timezone: They could (theoretically) be performing a region lookup based upon your IP address. If you've ever seen one of those dating site ads on a webpage, you may have noticed that they sometimes try to guess your location... They use your IP address to figure that out, and Ars might be doing the same thing.

3) You told them your timezone: This is one of the data points saved in your forum profile, and they could very easily pull it from there and apply it in this fashion. (That's how I would have done it, if I had developed the site.)

So the way I see it, the most believable answer is obviously #3... but just to test my assumptions, I checked the site from an alternate browser without being logged into the forum, and the page still appeared to reflect my timezone accurately. So it's probably #2... though, admittedly, I guess we still can't entirely rule out #1.

... The stock will rise up to the announcement, and fall briefly afterwards. As it does every time.

True... but unless you're a day-trader, you don't actually care all that much about these small ripples. What's more important to long-term investors is that slow-but-steady rise after the dust settles. (Admittedly, it's hard to see that overall trend at the moment, with Apple's all time high in September staring at us from the rear view mirror...)

Sadly, not a hard prediction. Apple could have record growth in all segments, post groundbreaking profits and 'analysts' would still say they failed to meet analyst expectations (i.e. infinite growth and profit that can only be expressed using a new sort of mathematics).

The stock will rise up to the announcement, and fall briefly afterwards. As it does every time.

Yet, isn't is amazing that no matter what Microsoft does, it's stock has stayed within the same $20 window for over a decade?

Sadly, not a hard prediction. Apple could have record growth in all segments, post groundbreaking profits and 'analysts' would still say they failed to meet analyst expectations (i.e. infinite growth and profit that can only be expressed using a new sort of mathematics).

The stock will rise up to the announcement, and fall briefly afterwards. As it does every time.

Yet, isn't is amazing that no matter what Microsoft does, it's stock has stayed within the same $20 window for over a decade?

Dividend stocks are more likely to stay fairly flat than a non-dividend stock like Apple has been. You can make money from them without an increase in share price because of the dividend. With a non-dividend stock, your only way to see income is share price movements, so they are more likely to move (plus they retain the cash which increases the cash value element of the share over time. Apple is worth $xbn, of which $140bn or so is cash, and that has increased over time, so you would expect the share price to increase to reflect the additional cash they are holding on to).Doesn't mean that's the only reason, but they aren't entirely comparable from a market perspective.

Also future earnings growth is already typically factored in to share prices, so growth doesn't mean increased share price. Growth is expected. Share prices also factor in the more distant future. If you do well now, but predict to do poorly over the next 5 years, it's the next 5 years people care about. If you do well now and that also indicates you will do well in the next 5 years, then people still care about the 5 years.

Of course, it doesn't always work like it should, but the theory is that the now doesn't have a massive impact, unless it's indicative of the future in some way. Things are already priced into the share price, like growth and expected performance.

Yowch, Big margin compression. Also disappointing to see a slowdown in iPad sales.

Feels like the phone and tablet computing markets are starting to crystallize, the former in particular. The days of transformative growth are behind us, and it's time for the slow, grueling tug-of-war to convert your rival's users instead of luring new recruits.

I'm sure there are growth opportunities in new categories like the watches and TVs everybody keeps talking about, but that all looks like chump change compared with phones and tablets.

... The stock will rise up to the announcement, and fall briefly afterwards. As it does every time.

True... but unless you're a day-trader, you don't actually care all that much about these small ripples. What's more important to long-term investors is that slow-but-steady rise after the dust settles. (Admittedly, it's hard to see that overall trend at the moment, with Apple's all time high in September staring at us from the rear view mirror...)

Expect the small and likely temporary drop to trigger a bunch of stories and analysts saying the company is doomed, this is the beginning of the end, etc etc etc.

Another interesting thing to note is that revenue per store is down about 10% year over year.

Also explained by the fact that this is a pre-release quarter.

In other words, less people are willing to buy an iPad that is 7 months old when a new one is going to be double the performance/storage/wow in 3 months.

The real solution then is to offset iPad and iPhone sales so that their revenue trend is more even.

This does not explain year-over-year dynamic at all. What does explain it is lower Mac and iPad sales and higher percentage of outdated (lower price) iPhone models.

What does explain it is that the only new Mac was the Air and it was available for only part of one month for the quarter -- and the most recent other Mac announcement was over 8 months ago. We're near the tail end of the cycle form most Mac models even if you don't count the Pro which is way, way past time to be refreshed (and likely will be within the next quarter).

As for the iPad, the second calendar quarter (third fiscal quarter) of last year was the first full quarter of sales of the first retina iPad (the iPad 3). This quarter the most recent iPad announcement was over 8 months old. Trailing quarters on an older model sell less.

I believe the projections for the third calendar quarter (fourth fiscal quarter) are quite conservative. How conservative will be shown by how many new products Apple announces during the next quarter and when it the quarter they are announced.

I'm sure there are growth opportunities in new categories like the watches and TVs everybody keeps talking about, but that all looks like chump change compared with phones and tablets.

I love when commenters say something like this, no, no you don't know. No one knows where the growth opportunities are just like no one knew about growth opportunities for the iPod, iPhone and iPad. Especially the iPad, I like many millions saw it and blurted out "big iphone, big deal" and then I used it and got it. Every growth opportunity is tentative at first that's because nobody knows, you have to feel it out and see if people actually want it. Even then people have to play with the device before most can see a purpose for it.

Another interesting thing to note is that revenue per store is down about 10% year over year.

Also explained by the fact that this is a pre-release quarter.

In other words, less people are willing to buy an iPad that is 7 months old when a new one is going to be double the performance/storage/wow in 3 months.

The real solution then is to offset iPad and iPhone sales so that their revenue trend is more even.

This does not explain year-over-year dynamic at all. What does explain it is lower Mac and iPad sales and higher percentage of outdated (lower price) iPhone models.

Yes it does. Shadowself explained it to you, but let me make it more clear:This time last year saw a full quarter of sales of a new iPad.This time we see a full quarter of sales of a 7 month old iPad.

So, yes, retail sales AND margin compression AND lower unit sales can all be explained by this fact.

Retail sales because people are less likely to buy an older product when a new product is around the quarter.Unit sales for the same reason.Margin compression because what people are willing to buy will be the cheaper product since there is less opportunity cost when a new product is released 2 months later.

I'm sure there are growth opportunities in new categories like the watches and TVs everybody keeps talking about, but that all looks like chump change compared with phones and tablets.

I love when commenters say something like this, no, no you don't know. No one knows where the growth opportunities are just like no one knew about growth opportunities for the iPod, iPhone and iPad. Especially the iPad, I like many millions saw it and blurted out "big iphone, big deal" and then I used it and got it. Every growth opportunity is tentative at first that's because nobody knows, you have to feel it out and see if people actually want it. Even then people have to play with the device before most can see a purpose for it.

I don't think things are quite as mysterious as you make them out to be. There were established markets in portable music players, mobile telephones, and portable PCs before Apple introduced all those hit products. Those established markets didn't define the opportunity, but they gave a pretty good impression of what they might be worth.

TVs have a decade-long lifecycle and sell one or two to a household. Watches have already been reduced to little more than fashion accessories by ubiquitous smartphones. They just don't present the same opportunity as mobile telephones, which every person on the planet either owns or wants, and tends to replace every three years or so.

Not saying it's impossible for Apple to build a TV that would add enough value to command a decent margin, I'm saying even if they did it and it took the TV market by storm, it would barely move the needle on Apple's financials. Just like how Microsoft's Xbox "success" is utterly buried by the software products that really butter its bread.

I don't really understand why Ars is doing live coverage of an earnings call. It really isn't your specialty and isn't relevant except as it may relate to new products. Leave it to the financial sites.

I don't really understand why Ars is doing live coverage of an earnings call. It really isn't your specialty and isn't relevant except as it may relate to new products. Leave it to the financial sites.

... The stock will rise up to the announcement, and fall briefly afterwards. As it does every time.

True... but unless you're a day-trader, you don't actually care all that much about these small ripples. What's more important to long-term investors is that slow-but-steady rise after the dust settles. (Admittedly, it's hard to see that overall trend at the moment, with Apple's all time high in September staring at us from the rear view mirror...)

Expect the small and likely temporary drop to trigger a bunch of stories and analysts saying the company is doomed, this is the beginning of the end, etc etc etc.

It seems you were wrong on all accounts. The stock dropped up to the announcement, and rose afterwards. Perhaps what used to happen every time will happen no more?

I don't really understand why Ars is doing live coverage of an earnings call. It really isn't your specialty and isn't relevant except as it may relate to new products. Leave it to the financial sites.

It got you to post, didn't it?

So next ars should do live covering of opening an envelope? As that too would get similar response?

I don't really understand why Ars is doing live coverage of an earnings call. It really isn't your specialty and isn't relevant except as it may relate to new products. Leave it to the financial sites.

It got you to post, didn't it?

So next ars should do live covering of opening an envelope? As that too would get similar response?

Oh... Did you mean the Emmy's, or the Oscar's? Meh... either way, it's moot; those aren't even remotely about technology.

Ars editors have commented more than once that they report on all things technology, and Apple is undeniably on-topic. Just because a couple of people in the comments complain that one specific aspect of technology reporting is for some reason uninteresting to them, doesn't mean Ars is going to stop reporting.

And I, for one, would like to voice my opposing opinion, to that of those complainers: I very much appreciate that Ars gives us these kinds of timely reports. It isn't critical to what I do, and it isn't going to change my life... but it's nice. And sometimes, that's reason enough to do it.

Andrew Cunningham / Andrew has a B.A. in Classics from Kenyon College and has over five years of experience in IT. His work has appeared on Charge Shot!!! and AnandTech, and he records a weekly book podcast called Overdue.