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Wednesday, June 21, 2017

ISIS is conducting spectacular attacks on security services,
civilians, and symbolic sites in order to detract from Mosul and Ninewa
Province operations and to prevent the emergence of a stable post-ISIS state. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) recaptured 12 neighborhoods in northwest Mosul,
tightening the noose around ISIS in Mosul’s Old City. ISIS responded with attacks to the north, south, and west of the
Old City on June 14. An estimated 100,000 civilians remain trapped in ISIS-held areas of the city. ISF
created evacuation routes, however, ISIS militants haveshot or
executed civilians attempting to flee. ISIS also destroyed al-Nuri GreatMosque on June 21. ISIS leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared
the “caliphate” from
this mosque in 2014.

ISIS seeks to undermine ISF morale and devastate Mosul’s
infrastructure, thereby diminishing the value of the city’s liberation and prospects
for post-ISIS governance and security. The 15th Iraqi Army Division cleared areas west of Mosul near Mount
Badush in its advance toward ISIS-held Tel Afar. Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) meanwhile
began surrounding Qayrawan on May 13, and hadreached the Syrian border by June 2. The
operation includedseizing Baaj, Baghdadi's former safe haven,
on June 4. ISIS countered these gains by launching ground attacks onHatra, south and west of Shirqat, Mount Badush, and near theIraq-Syria border. Iran played a prominent role in
the operations; senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Shaaban
Nassiri died in clashes near Baaj on May 27 and
Lebanese Hezbollah commander Abd al-Hamid Mahmoud Shari died
near Qayrawan on June 2. Iran seeks to hinder U.S. freedom of maneuver along
the Iraq-Syria border by maintaining a border presence and shaping post-Mosul
security in Iraq. It may also hope to position its proxies to lead Hawijah’s
recapture rather than U.S.-backed forces.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) began
operations to clear ISIS from Ar-Raqqa City in Northern
Syria on June 6. This urban combat phase marks the culmination of successful shaping
operations conducted over the last eight months to isolate Ar-Raqqa City under Operation
Euphrates Wrath. These operations included the seizure of the Tabqa
Dam in Western Ar-Raqqa Province on May 10. Ar-Raqqa
City is currently isolated along its three axes with only limited water traffic
to the south across the Euphrates River. The fight for the city will
nonetheless prove difficult. ISIS retains at least
2,500 fighters in the city behind an elaborate system
of berms, tunnels, improvised explosive devices, and other defenses “very
similar” to its posture in Mosul, Iraq. ISIS’s forces are
intermingled with an estimated 50,000
to 100,000 civilians, raising the complexity and
requirements of ongoing clearing operations. ISIS has thus far mounted a kinetic defense, ceding some outlying districts in favor of raids, ambushes, sleeper
cells, and suicide attacks as the group falls back towards the dense urban core
of Ar-Raqqa City. The capability of the SDF – a coalition of irregular forces
dominated by the Syrian Kurdish YPG – to sustain its offensive and overcome
these challenges remains doubtful despite expansive support from the U.S.
Anti-ISIS Coalition.

The campaign for Ar-Raqqa City also faces significant challenges beyond
the urban fight. Continued U.S. support to the YPG risks alienating local Sunni
Arabs whose support will be required to secure and govern the city over the
long term against the threat posed by ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other Salafi-Jihadist
groups. The local population’s long-standing ethnic
and political grievances will not be
addressed by the participation of Sunni Arabs in the Syrian Arab Coalition
(SAC) or Raqqa Civilian
Council – both of which locals view as mere puppets of
the YPG in Northern Syria. The decision to back the YPG in Ar-Raqqa City also furthers
a widening divide between the U.S. and Turkey in Syria. Turkey views with deep
suspicion the institutional links between the YPG and the Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK), a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization that is currently
waging an active insurgency in Southern Turkey. Turkish President Recep Erdogan
mounted a failed
lobbying campaign to convince both U.S.
President Donald Trump and former U.S. President Barack Obama to halt their support
for the SDF in Northern Syria in favor of opposition groups backed by Turkey.
Turkey retains the capability to launch a major cross-border
intervention against the YPG along the Syrian-Turkish Border
- particularly at the border town of Tel Abyad in Northern Ar-Raqqa Province.
Turkey nonetheless will likely eschew
any intervention over the near term and
instead hope that the YPG weakens itself through a sustained engagement in
Ar-Raqqa City. The Russo-Iranian Coalition also remains poised to exploit any
setbacks suffered by the SDF in Ar-Raqqa City. Forces loyal to Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad advanced into regions directly abutting the SDF in Tabqa in Western Ar-Raqqa
Province on June 13. The U.S. later shot
down a Syrian Arab Air Force fighter jet after the
aircraft dropped munitions near positions held by the SDF near Tabqa on June
18. Russia, Iran, and Assad likely intend to block further gains by the SDF
near Ar-Raqqa City as part of a wider effort to constrain the U.S. Anti-ISIS
Coalition in Eastern Syria that began in May 2017.

ISIS ultimately will not suffer a fatal blow in Ar-Raqqa City. Intelligence
officials and local activists report that the group has already relocated the majority of its leadership, media, chemical
weapons, and external
attack cells south of Ar-Raqqa City to the town of
Mayadin in Deir ez-Zour Province in Eastern Syria. The SDF and U.S. Anti-ISIS
Coalition as well as the Russo-Iranian Coalition both cannot easily access this
terrain – located deep along the Euphrates River Valley – with their current
force posture. ISIS stands to retain safe haven for the indefinite future
despite the loss of its ‘de facto’ capital. The fall of Ar-Raqqa City will be
symbolic – but it will not be decisive.

Friday, June 16, 2017

Iraqi
Shi’a militias in the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) recaptured most of the
populated areas of the Ninewa desert areas, concluding operations in western
Ninewa Province on June 10. The PMU also recaptured al-Baaj, a former safe
haven for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, on June 4. The PMU will likely
refit and turn their attention towards clearing the rest of the Iraq-Syria
border in Ninewa Province towards al-Qa’im in western Anbar Province. The PMU
push could threaten the U.S.’s ability to operate along the Iraq-Syria border
area by positioning Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias proximate to U.S. areas
of interest along the Euphrates River Valley. The PMU may also position
significant assets towards the ISIS-held Hawija Pocket to pressure the ISF to
recapture Hawija with the PMU. The PMU’s recent statements about preparing for
Hawija Operations, likely under the Badr Organization-controlled “East Dijla
Operations Command,” suggest that they will allocate forces towards Hawija in
the near future.

The
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continue to fight to clear ISIS from western Mosul
and the Old City amid fierce ISIS resistance. Political challenges surrounding
the composition of forces continues to stall the Tal Afar operation, as
Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias continue to desire a role in clearing the
city, which Turkey and the U.S. oppose. The ISF will likely clear Tal Afar
after recapturing Mosul once the completion of Mosul operations frees up
manpower for additional clearing operations. Meanwhile, the 9th Iraqi Army
Armored Division continued clearing operations west of Mosul, recapturing most
of the ISIS-held towns near Mount Badush and the Badush Dam and Prison areas in
March 2017 and making slow progress towards Tal Afar from the east.

The
map reflects adjustments to the Hawija Pocket control assessment in the March
2017 iteration of the map based on a reevaluation of previous operations; no
forward progress against ISIS has been made in that area since March 2017.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Applications for
Fall 2017 internships at the Institute for the Study of War are now being
accepted. You may submit your application immediately. We will consider
applications on a rolling basis until all positions are filled. We will begin
considering applications immediately.

For all
positions, we greatly prefer full-time availability although part-time interns
may also be accepted depending on qualifications.

All internships
are unpaid.
ISW does not sponsor visas of any kind for international students.

Please submit all
documents in pdf form and submit your resume and cover letter as one document.
Documents submitted in word format will NOT BE CONSIDERED.

Please only
submit one application – if you are interested in multiple positions, please
list them in rank order at the top of your cover letter. Please also list these
in rank order at the top of your email submission.

Why work for ISW:
ISW believes ground realities must drive the formulation of strategy and
policy. In pursuit of this principle, ISW conducts detailed, open-source
intelligence analysis to provide the most accurate information on current
conflicts and security threats. We offer interns a chance to train on work with
cutting-edge technologies employed in business and in the intelligence
community. Interns at ISW will have an unparalleled opportunity to conduct
research that directly informs policy-makers on some of the most pressing
issues facing American national security. Our interns work directly with
analysts and have many opportunities to engage with Institute leadership on the
subjects of their research. ISW offers its interns to be at the front lines of
military research and policy, tackling the issues that are in the headlines.
ISW has published the work of its interns and hired many onto its staff.

Research Internship – Iraq Project

ISW’s Iraq
Project is its original, flagship program and has an outstanding history and
reputation. ISW publishes regular research reports on Iraq in order to
inform policy makers and journalists in Washington, DC, as well as the general
public. The Iraq program examines the resurgence of the Islamic State of
Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the spillover between Iraq and Syria, Iraq’s internal
politics, Iraq's military and paramilitary organizations, and Iraq’s foreign
relations. Interns will provide critical assistance to our researchers. Interns
will be trained to use innovative technologies to assist their research.
Interns are expected to conduct research under the guidance of Research
Analysts and Assistants; work in conjunction with other members of the research
staff to produce research briefs and analysis; assist with editing,
documenting, and supporting materials for products of the Institute; assist
with the planning, preparation, and execution of public events and private
briefings of employees of the Institute; and conduct other activities in
support of Institute projects.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate with
coursework in a field of study related to ISW's core mission and research
agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a related field is a plus. Interns with
the ability to read and conduct research in Arabic are highly desired, as is
knowledge of Iraq. Candidates should have excellent writing and analytical
skills, and the ability to conduct research using social media and other open
sources. Ideal candidates should also have the ability to conduct tasks in a
timely and efficient manner. The candidate must also possess an interest
in and enthusiasm for ISW’s research agenda and mission.

Iraq Interns
report to the Iraq Research Analysts and Research Manager.

Research Internship – Afghanistan Project

ISW’s Afghanistan
Project publishes regular research reports on Afghanistan’s security situation
and political developments in order to inform policy makers and journalists in
Washington, DC, as well as the general public. The Afghanistan program’s Threat
Assessment Map examines the Taliban’s operations and campaigns as well as the
growth of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Afghanistan. The
program also studies the intricate dynamics of Afghan politics, warlords, and
powerbrokers. Interns will provide critical assistance to our researchers.
Interns are expected to conduct research under the guidance of the Research
Analysts; work in conjunction with other members of the research staff to
produce research briefs and analysis; assist with editing, documenting, and
supporting materials for products of the Institute; assist with the planning,
preparation, and execution of public events and private briefings of employees
of the Institute; and conduct other activities in support of Institute projects.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate with
coursework in a field of study related to the ISW's core mission and research
agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a related field is a plus, as is
familiarity with Afghanistan. Candidates should have excellent writing and
analytical skills, and the ability to conduct research. Ideal candidates should
also have the ability to conduct tasks in a timely and efficient manner.
The candidate must also possess an interest in and enthusiasm for ISW’s
research agenda and mission. Interns with the ability to read the Farsi, Dari,
or Pashto language and to conduct research in one of those languages are highly
desired.

Interns report to
the Internship Coordinator and Research Manager.

Research Intern—Syria Project

ISW’s Syria
project has become a leading source of innovative analysis and information
about the Syrian Civil War. ISW publishes regular research reports and maps on
the conflict in Syria in order to inform policy makers and journalists in
Washington, DC, as well as the general public. The Syria program examines the
dynamics among domestic actors in the Syrian Civil War, including the regime
and the opposition; the role of foreign actors in the conflict, particularly
Russia and Iran; the activities of ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria; and spillover
into neighboring states, including Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan. Interns will
provide critical assistance to our researchers. Interns will be trained to use
innovative technologies to assist their research, as Syrian social media is a
key source of information on this conflict. Interns are expected to conduct
research under the guidance of Research Analysts; work in conjunction with
other members of the research staff to produce research briefs and analysis;
assist with editing, documenting, and supporting materials for products of the
Institute; assist with the planning, preparation, and execution of public
events and private briefings of employees of the Institute; and conduct other
activities in support of Institute projects.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate
with coursework in a field of study related to the ISW's core mission and
research agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a related field is a plus, as is
familiarity with Syria. Candidates should have excellent writing and analytical
skills, and the ability to conduct research using social media and open
sources. Ideal candidates should also have the ability to conduct tasks in a
timely and efficient manner. The candidate must also possess an interest in and
enthusiasm for ISW’s research agenda and mission. Interns with the ability to
read and conduct research in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, or Farsi are highly desired.

Syria Interns
report to the Research Analysts and Research Manager.

Research Intern—Egypt Security Project

ISW is expanding
its research into the conflict in Egypt in order to inform policy makers and
journalists in Washington, DC, as well as the general public. The project
examines the increasing footprint of ISIS in the Sinai as well as internal
political dynamics under Sisi’s rule. Interns will provide critical assistance
to our researchers. Interns are expected to conduct research under the guidance
of the Research Analysts and Assistants; work in conjunction with other members
of the research staff to produce research briefs and analysis; assist with
editing, documenting, and supporting materials for products of the Institute;
assist with the planning, preparation, and execution of public events and
private briefings of employees of the Institute; and conduct other activities
in support of Institute projects.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate
with coursework in a field of study related to the ISW's core mission and
research agenda. Work or academic experience in Egypt is also a plus.
Candidates should have excellent writing and analytical skills, and the ability
to conduct research independently. Ideal candidates should also have the
ability to conduct tasks in a timely and efficient manner. The candidate must
also possess an interest in and enthusiasm for ISW’s research agenda and
mission. Arabic language skills are mandatory.

Egypt interns
report to the Internship Coordinator and Research Manager.

Research Internship – Counterterrorism Team

ISW publishes
regular research reports on the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) as
well as other terrorist networks in the Middle East in order to inform policy
makers and journalists in Washington, DC, as well as the general public. This
portfolio focuses upon ISIS’s network inside Iraq and Syria, in the immediate
region, and globally, and the research team produces regular maps and reports
tracking ISIS’s global campaign. Interns are expected to conduct research under
the guidance of Research Analysts and Assistants; work in conjunction with
other members of the research staff to produce research briefs and analysis;
assist with editing, documenting, and supporting materials for products of the
Institute; assist with the planning, preparation, and execution of public
events and private briefings of employees of the Institute; and conduct other
activities in support of Institute projects.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate with
military or intelligence experience and coursework in a field of study related
to the ISW's core mission and research agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a
related field or demonstrated network analysis experience is a plus. Candidates
should have excellent writing and analytical skills, the ability to conduct
research, and desire to use technology. Familiarity Palantir or other
analytical visualization software platforms is preferred. Ideal candidates
should also have the ability to conduct tasks in a timely and efficient manner.
The candidate must also possess an interest in and enthusiasm for ISW’s
research agenda and mission. Interns with the ability to read and conduct
research in Arabic are highly desired.

The
Counterterrorism Interns will report to the Research Analysts and
Research Manager.

Research Internship –Russia and Ukraine Project

ISW’s
Russia-Ukraine team focuses on innovative analysis and open-source research on
current and potential zones of conflict in Eastern Europe and Eurasia
developments in order to inform policy makers and journalists in Washington,
DC, as well as the general public. This project utilizes unclassified
information on military operations and political actors in order to provide
expert, in-depth analysis about security issues affecting the region, including
Russian intent and capabilities, the intent and capabilities of the Ukrainian
government, the potential for political crisis in Kyiv, and Russia’s ongoing
intervention in Syria. Interns will provide critical research and analytical assistance
to our team. Interns will be trained to use innovative technologies to assist
their research, and to gather information from social media as a key source of
information on this conflict in order to assist in this research. ISW will be
expanding a series of publications and graphical products to inform policy
makers and journalists in Washington, DC, as well as the general public.
Interns are expected to conduct research under the guidance of Research
Analysts and Assistance; work in conjunction with other members of the research
staff to produce research briefs and analysis; assist with editing,
documenting, and supporting materials for products of the Institute; assist
with the planning, preparation, and execution of public events and private
briefings of employees of the Institute; and conduct other activities in
support of Institute projects.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate
with coursework in a field of study related to the ISW's core mission and
research agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a related field is a plus, as is
familiarity with Ukraine and/or Russia. Candidates should have excellent
writing and analytical skills, and the ability to conduct research using social
media and open sources. Ideal candidates should also have the ability to
conduct tasks in a timely and efficient manner. The candidate must also possess
an interest in and enthusiasm for ISW’s research agenda and mission. Interns
with the ability to read and conduct research in Russian or Ukrainian are
highly desired.

Russia/Ukraine
Interns report to the Ukraine Research Analyst and Research Manager.

Turkish Linguist Internship

The Institute for
the Study of War is seeking motivated and experienced university students or
recent graduates to fill the position of Turkish Linguist Intern. The linguist
will be responsible for reviewing open source data in Turkish to support our
various research teams, with a focus on the Syrian conflict and Russo-Turkish
relations. The linguist will have the opportunity to collect and analyze data
from traditional and social media sources and will be trained to use analytic
software to better inform ISW’s already groundbreaking research. The linguist
should be a self-starter able to identify critical inflections and trends, but
(s)he will also have the opportunity to work under a research team.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate with
coursework in a field of study related to ISW's core mission and research
agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a related field is a plus. The ability to
read and conduct research in Turkish is mandatory. Candidates should have
excellent writing and analytical skills, and the ability to conduct research
using social media and other open sources. Ideal candidates should also have
the ability to conduct tasks in a timely and efficient manner. The
candidate must also possess an interest in and enthusiasm for ISW’s research
agenda and mission.

Farsi Linguist Internship

The Institute for
the Study of War is seeking motivated and experienced university students or
recent graduates to fill the position of Farsi Linguist Intern. The linguist
will be responsible for reviewing open source data in Farsi to support our
various research teams, with a focus on Iran’s role in the Syria conflict. The
linguist will have the opportunity to collect and analyze data from traditional
and social media sources and will be trained to use analytic software to better
inform ISW’s already groundbreaking research. The linguist should be a
self-starter able to identify critical inflections and trends, but (s)he will
also have the opportunity to work under a research team.

Qualifications:
The ideal candidate will be a recent graduate or current undergraduate with
coursework in a field of study related to ISW's core mission and research
agenda. Graduate-level coursework in a related field is a plus. The ability to
read and conduct research in Farsi is mandatory. Candidates should have
excellent writing and analytical skills, and the ability to conduct research
using social media and other open sources. The candidate must also possess an
interest in and enthusiasm for ISW’s research agenda and mission. Ideal
candidates should also have the ability to conduct tasks in a timely and
efficient manner. Background knowledge of the Syrian Civil War and Iran’s use of
proxies in Syria and Iraq is not mandatory, but also a plus.

Press, Media, and Government Relations Internship

The Institute for
the Study of War is seeking motivated and experienced university students or
recent graduates to fill the position of Press, Media, and Government Relations
Intern.

The Press, Media,
and Government Relations Intern is responsible for assisting the External
Relations Department with updating ISW’s press and media tracker (excel
document), and helping to create material for a monthly newsletter. The Press,
Media, and Government Relations Intern will help assist the External Relations
Director with press inquiries including inquiries from major media news outlets
including and not limited to CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, and The
New York Times. The Press, Media, and Government Relations intern will
contribute heavily to ISW’s mission of providing timely and accurate
information to policy-makers and war fighters. Among other duties, the Press,
Media, and Government Relations intern will be actively involved with
developing ISW’s outreach lists, coordinating events, and producing collateral
outreach materials.

Qualifications:
Candidates must be motivated, organized university students or recent graduates
with coursework in a related field. They should have experience with the
MS Office including Word, Excel, and PowerPoint. Experience handling
phone calls and responding to external inquiries is preferred though not
required. Familiarity with international and national security topics is
a plus. The applicant must possess excellent writing and editing
capabilities. Exceptional candidates will have commitment and interest in ISW's
core mission and values.

The Press,
Media, and Government Relations intern will report to the Director of External
Relations.

Development and Event
Management Internship

The Institute for the Study
of War is seeking a highly-motivated, organized, and creative university
student or recent graduate to fill the position of Development and Event
Management Intern for the 2017 Fall Semester. This position assumes
responsibility for assisting the Development Director and President in
initiating, implementing, and monitoring ISW’s development initiatives and
strategic partnerships. The Intern will play an important role in helping plan
and coordinate ISW’s two major hallmark events: ISW’s Annual Security
Conference in Washington D.C. and the President’s Circle Dinner in New York.
These events gather policy makers at the forefront of national security debate.
The Intern will also assist with the mission-critical tasks of researching and
developing potential strategic partnerships; drafting communications to
prospective and current donors; developing new marketing materials; maintaining
records and database information; and assisting the Development Director with
tasks as required.

This position offers a unique opportunity for individuals with excellent
communication skills and an interest in business development to enhance their
credentials and gain valuable marketing, business planning and strategy
experience. It is the perfect opportunity for individuals who want to
learn more about working for a non-profit, as well as the intelligence, defense
and think-tank communities, and are looking to make an over-size impact on a
growing and dynamic organization!

Qualifications: Current students or recent graduates with an interest in
national security, non-profit management, event planning, and/or marketing are
encouraged to apply. Strong candidates will also have a commitment to and
interest in ISW’s mission.

The Intern will report to the Development Director.

Presidential Internship

The Institute for
the Study of War is seeking motivated, experienced, and creative university
students or recent graduates to fill the position of Presidential Intern.The Presidential Intern is responsible for
assisting the President of the Institute for the Study of War, Dr. Kimberly
Kagan, with a range of responsibilities in non-profit management. Past interns
to the president have conducted research projects, designed electronic material
for publication, assisted with event coordination, and participated in
development events. The Presidential Intern will have the ability to work
across different teams as well as attend some briefings and meetings with Dr.
Kagan. The Presidential Intern directly assists Dr. Kagan on a daily basis and
must be able to juggle responsibilities as well as be very organized and task
oriented.Candidates must be motivated and mature university students or recent
graduates with coursework in a field related to national security,
international relations, or history. Familiarity with international and
national security topics is required. They should have experience with
the MS Office including Word, Excel, and PowerPoint. Experience with InDesign
and Adobe Creative Suite is a plus as well. The successful applicant will
possess excellent writing and editing capabilities and have commitment and
interest in ISW's core mission and values.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

ISIS’s
first attack in Iran punctuated two stark realities: the group’s annual Ramadan
campaign is alive while the US-led anti-ISIS campaign is on a path to failure. ISIS surges attacks every year
during Ramadan in order to gain or increase momentum in its global campaign to maintain its declared
caliphate, expand across the Muslim world, and win an apocalyptic war with the
West. ISIS has conducted successful attacks in three new countries this year –
the United Kingdom, the Philippines, and Iran – and will likely pull off more
before the Muslim holy month is over. The jihadist group has sustained a global
insurgency despite the considerable military pressure it faces in Iraq and
Syria.

ISIS
has been waging its global campaign in four separate “rings” since 2014. First, ISIS is
defending and attempting to remain in and expand its territorial control in its
“core terrain” in Syria and Iraq. Second, ISIS seeks to weaken the Middle
East’s power centers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Third, ISIS is
expanding in other Muslim majority countries through attack networks and, when
possible, ground operations. Fourth, ISIS is conducting spectacular attacks in
the non-Muslim majority world, or the “far abroad,” in order to polarize those
communities and radicalize their minority Muslim populations. ISIS’s Ramadan surges
set conditions in these rings, varying its main
effort based on its circumstances and the capabilities in Iraq and Syria and of
its networks abroad.

ISIS’s
first Ramadan surges in 2012, 2013 and 2014 kick started its resurgent campaigns to seize vast swaths of terrain in
Iraq and Syria and declare the caliphate. ISIS continues to strike offensively
against anti-ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria each Ramadan. ISIS began its
campaigns in the “far abroad” and Muslim world as early as late 2013, when the
ISIS external operations wing in Syriabegan to recruit, train, and deploy
foreign fighters to conduct spectacular attacks in Europe and across the Middle
East and North Africa. In 2014, ISIS sent senior operatives to Libya and
Sinai in order to
cultivate new affiliates. ISIS’s success in the Muslim world in 2014 enabled it
to recognize formal affiliates in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,Algeria, Russia’s Caucasus, Nigeria, and Yemen before Ramadan 2015. ISIS did so
in order to “remain” in Iraq and Syria and “expand” by creating resilience globally
to counter pressure.

The
main effort of ISIS’s Ramadan campaigns became the Muslim world and “far
abroad” in 2015, after reaching its apex in Iraq and Syria by seizing the
cities of Ramadi and Palmyra shortly beforehand. ISIS surged
its campaign in the Muslim world, including spectacular attacks at a beach
resort in Tunisia and a Shi’a mosque in Kuwait while continuing to
deploy attack cells into Europe. ISIS struck a wide variety of targets across
the Muslim world and the “far abroad” in 2016, including successful attacks in Bangladesh, Turkey,
and Saudi Arabia. The same year a terrorist
pledging allegiance to ISIS’s leader attacked a nightclub in
Orlando, Florida, shortly after the beginning of Ramadan.

ISIS
is expanding its reach even further this Ramadan, which began on May 26. ISIS conducted
two near-simultaneous, complex, coordinated attacks against symbolic targets in
Iran’s capital
on June 7. These
attacks are a major inflection point that signals growing capability in the
second ring of strong Muslim states. ISIS is also gaining momentum in Southeast
Asia, part of its third ring, where it launched a major ground offensive in the Philippines, seizing
a city and defending it against a counter-offensive by Philippine security
forces. ISIS
also conducted its first successful suicide attack in the UK, a priority target in the majority
non-Muslim fourth ring. This attack suggests ISIS has a growing network in
Europe despite increasing European counterterrorism efforts. Other ISIS attack
cells have been thwarted in areas with ISIS networks including Spain, Tunisia,
and Russia. ISIS has continued to conduct a Ramadan surge in Iraq, though
security forces have thwarted some of its attacks.

The
scope of ISIS’s current global Ramadan campaign, its continuity with past campaigns,
and its resilience within Iraq and Syria demonstrates that the US has failed to
contain ISIS or to reclaim the initiative, much less destroy the organization. Secretary
of Defense James Mattis has said America’s goals against
ISIS are to
“crush ISIS’s claims of invincibility, deny ISIS a geographic haven from which
to hatch murder, eliminate ISIS ability to operate externally, and eradicate
their ability to recruit and finance terrorist operations.” Current US-led
operations in Syria and Iraq will not accomplish these objectives. These
operations amount to chasing the ISIS external attack cell around the
battlefield through successive linear, tactical assaults that tie up our military
capability without achieving decisive results. The ISIS external attack cell
has now moved from Raqqa, the main effort of U.S.-backed operations, to southeastern Syria near the Iraqi border, an
area where America’s ground partners cannot now project force.

ISIS
is globalizing its external attack capability in order to endure even a total
loss of its terrain in Iraq and Syria, which even today extends beyond Mosul
and Raqqa, respectively. ISIS is deliberately “[fostering] interconnectedness among its scattered branches,
networks, and supporters, seeking to build a global organization,” according to
an assessment released by the anti-ISIS coalition in March 2017. The US has
increased the tempo of operations againsthigh-value ISIS operatives, but has not disabled the external
operations cell. ISIS has shifted to mobilizing prospective fighters in place
rather than bringing them to Syria, Iraq, or Libya as foreign fighters. ISIS’s
expansion in farther flung areas like Afghanistan and Southeast Asia also generates
alternative basing options for command-and-control elements and potential
fighting forces.

President
Donald Trump’s supposed “acceleration” of the anti-ISIS campaign he inherited
from his predecessor has minimally increased the speed of tactical gains in
Raqqa and Mosul while doing little to ensure that the U.S. achieves its
strategic objectives The liberation of Mosul and Raqqa in 2014 might have defeated
the organization, but it no longer suffices. ISIS’s global attack network is
now more robust, dispersed, and resilient than ever. ISIS will remain dedicated
to its global objectives after Mosul and Raqqa fall and will continue to wage a
calculated global campaign. ISIS’s global success generates a momentum for
jihadism that will endure even if the US manages to defeat the organization,
moreover. Al Qaeda is waiting to pick up the mantle of the
global war against the West, and could be even more successful than ISIS. The
threat the US faces from jihadism vastly overmatches its current hyper-tactical
campaign in Iraq and Syria. The first step in placing the US and its allies
back on a path to victory is to recognize that the existing strategy of tactics
will not suffice.

Jennifer
Cafarella is the Lead Intelligence Planner at the Institute for the Study of
War. Melissa Pavlik is a Counter-terrorism Analyst at the Institute for the
Study of War.

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Russia has reshaped its military campaign in Syria to constrain the
U.S.’s current operations and future options. Russia deprioritized its airstrikes
against opposition-held terrain in Western Syria following the announcement of
four ‘de-escalationzones’
brokered by Russia, Iran, and Turkey on May 6. Russia claimed this shift was a continuation
of its supposed counter-terrorism campaign in Syria. Russia’s actual target for
this new operational phase is not ISIS or Al-Qaeda, but rather the U.S. and its
partners and allies.

Russia positioned pro-Bashar al-Assad regime forces to disrupt the
U.S. in Syria under the guise of anti-ISIS operations. Russian airstrikes
supported pro-regime forces in a major offensive in Eastern Aleppo Province
that culminated with the seizure of Maskanah - the last urban center held by
ISIS in Aleppo Province - on June 4. These gains nonetheless placed the
pro-regime coalition on the border between Aleppo and Ar-Raqqa Provinces within
55 miles of Ar-Raqqa City. Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime could use this
region as a base to disrupt ongoing U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) operationsto seize Ar-Raqqa City from ISIS. Russia
similarly reasserted its capabilities with cruisemissilestrikes against ISIS logistics positions
near Palmyra in Eastern Homs Province on May 31. The Russian Navy’s Mediterranean
Task Force simultaneously conducted exercises with Russian Marines off the
Syrian coast. Russia’s actions in Eastern Aleppo Province, Homs Province, and
the Mediterranean demonstrate Russia’s resolve to compete with and undermine U.S.
influence throughout Syria.

Russia continued to leverage partnerships with local forces in
order to maximize the impact of its air campaign in Syria. Russian airstrikes targeted U.S.-backed opposition groups
Jaysh Asoud al Sharqiya and the Ahmed Abdo Martyrs Brigade near the Zaza
Junction in the Badia region of Eastern Homs Province on May 31. Pro-regime
forces advanced throughout April and May toward
the joint U.S.-Syrian opposition base at Tanaf on the Syrian-Iraqi border until
U.S. airstrikes on May18
and halted pro-regime forces from further incursion into an established “de-confliction”
zone. The U.S. conducted additional strikes against pro-regime forces near
Tanaf on June6
and June8. Pro-regime
advances near Tanaf could impede U.S. freedom of movement along the
Syrian-Iraqi border and deter potential U.S. operations against ISIS launched from Eastern Deir ez-Zour Province. Russia has also
resumed air support for pro-regime ground efforts in Dera’a City in Southern
Syria despite the ‘de-escalation zone’ agreement brokered by Russia,
Iran, and Turkey in Dera’a Province. Pro-regime
forces reportedlydeployed from Aleppo City and Damascus to
Dera’a City between May 29 - 31. Russia and the pro-regime coalition may attempt
to use the deployment to Dera’a City to consolidate pro-regime control over
Southern Syria and block potential U.S.-Jordanian mobilization along the
Syrian-Jordanian border.

Russia also advanced political efforts to constrain potential U.S.
action in Syria. Russian officials met with representatives from Iraq,
Iran, and the Assad regime in Moscow on May 21 to discuss terrorism and
cooperation on Syrian-Iraqi border security. An Iraqi partnership with the
Russia-Iran-Assad axis would undermine U.S.-Iraqi relations and open the door
to greater Russian influence in Iraq. U.S. and Jordanian officials reportedly met with Russian representatives in
Amman, Jordan, to discuss a de-escalation zone along the Syrian-Jordanian
border. The expansion of Russian influence along Syria’s borders will put
Russia and the U.S. in greater competition in
Southern and Eastern Syria. The U.S. risks losing opposition partners and
influence by partnering with Russia and must not misconstrue Russian air and
missile strikes against ISIS as an indicator of Russian reliability in Syria.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.

High-Confidence Reporting.ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.

The U.S. and Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF) launched operations to seize full control of Ar-Raqqa City from
ISIS. The SDF formally announced the start of clearing operations along three
axes and later entered an outlying district of Ar-Raqqa City. Operation
Inherent Resolve (OIR) Commander Lt. Gen. Steve Townsend predicted a “long and
difficult fight” for the city but stressed that the offensive would “deliver a
decisive blow” to ISIS in Iraq and Syria. ISIS has fortified Ar-Raqqa City to a
level similar to Mosul in Northern Iraq with the likely intent to inflict heavy
casualties upon the SDF. ISIS has also reportedly redeployed a large portion of
its leadership and external attack capabilities to Deir ez-Zour Province in
Eastern Syria, limiting the strategic impact of operations against Ar-Raqqa
City.

The U.S. demonstrated its
continued intent to defend its operations in Southern Syria. The U.S. conducted
a second airstrike targeting a pro-regime convoy advancing against opposition
groups backed by the U.S. and Jordan at Al-Tanaf on the Syrian-Iraqi Border.
The incident follows a similar strike against a pro-regime convoy near Al-Tanaf
on 18 MAY. The U.S. stressed that the Anti-ISIS Coalition does “not seek to
fight” pro-regime forces but reiterated its willingness to “defend itself” if
pro-regime forces fail to depart a “well-established deconfliction zone” in
Southern Syria. Russia, Iran, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will likely
continue to challenge the Anti-ISIS Coalition along the Iraqi-Syrian Border to
preempt any long-term expansion by the U.S. in Eastern Syria.

This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria
SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the
Study of War and Syria Direct.
This graphic depicts significant recent developments in the Syrian Civil War.
The control of terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of May 31,
2017.

Friday, June 2, 2017

ISIS launched a wave of spectacular attacks in Western Syria prior to the start of Ramadan on May 26. ISIS detonated one VBIED targeting the majority-Alawite Zahraa District of Homs City on May 23. On the same day, pro-regime forces intercepted two bombers wearing SVESTS near the Shi’a Sayyida Zeinab Shrine in Damascus. ISIS also conducted a double SVEST - IED attack targeting a meeting of Salafi-Jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham in Eastern Idlib Province on May 22. These attacks follow a major ground attack by ISIS against two majority-Ismaili towns in Eastern Hama Province on 18 MAY. The attack wave demonstrates that ISIS retains the capability and intent to intensify its operations against both pro-regime and opposition forces in Western Syria despite its continued withdrawal from large stretches of Southern and Central Syria towards Eastern Syria.

NATO leaders agreed to formally join the Anti-ISIS Coalition in Iraq and Syria during the NATO Summit in Brussels on May 25. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the agreement sends a “strong signal” of “commitment to fight global terrorism” but stressed that the bloc will not “engage in combat operations” against ISIS. NATO will instead expand its "airspace management" and aerial refueling mission for coalition aircraft as well as the deployment of special forces teams to train local partner forces. NATO will also establish a "terrorism intelligence cell" to improve information-sharing on foreign fighters. The decision likely aimed to meet the priorities of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly questioned the value of the alliance while stressing the need to expand its counter-terrorism capabilities. The measure remains largely symbolic.

This graphic marks the latest installment of our Syria SITREP Map made possible through a partnership between the Institute for the Study of War and Syria Direct. This graphic depicts significant recent developments in the Syrian Civil War. The control of terrain represented on the graphic is accurate as of May 31, 2017.