“Upgrading the offense has to be the priority for the Jets. They need a QB, RB and WR. They also need to improve their offensive line, most notably at tackle.”

Team’s Free Agents:

The New York Jets offseason has one of two paths it will go down. First, there is the Kirk Cousins path, which includes likely shelling out $25 to $27 million per season to a quarterback who will then consume between 12 and 15% of your salary cap for the next five to six seasons. The second path is to take a quarterback with the #6 overall pick that the Jets possess or trading up to get into the first few picks to ensure selecting the right quarterback. As detailed in Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions, there are two main strategies for success in today’s NFL, there’s the expensive first-tier quarterback route that many teams use, then there’s the low-cost rookie contract quarterback strategy. The Jets will be deciding on which path they want to take over the next half decade this offseason and this choice will determine if they compete for championships or if they continue to be “the Jets.”

With the first-tier quarterback strategy, a team has a veteran quarterback over 10% of the cap, which typically leads to a team reliant on that quarterback to be an elite performer because of his high cost. If you add another higher cap hit or two to the quarterbacks high cap hit, like spending on a top wide receiver to further elevate the passing game like the Packers and Steelers currently are or a defensive end like the 2017 Chiefs did, then it can lead to some holes elsewhere on the roster that could become an issue come playoff time. These may not be glaring holes, but many times they’re slight inefficiencies or mismatches in vital areas of the game, which an elite NFL head coach and coordinator can exploit. When facing a team that’s spent it’s cap space in a more efficient and balanced manner, these teams leave themselves open to being exploited.

One of the big issues for teams across the AFC and the NFL the last couple years has been that the Patriots have hacked the system with Tom Brady just over 8% of the cap, which has allowed the Patriots to build out the best defense in the NFL in 2016 and one of the better defenses in 2017. Mind you, Brady is also still making a lot of money, but he and the team are also taking into account his likely decline as he goes into his forties. He’s made a lot of money in his career and he understands that building a team around him enhances his legacy, which I have a feeling is the same process that Drew Brees and the Saints are going through currently. I think that Brees will re-sign at a reasonable cap number that allows the Saints to continue to build their team in the current model they used in 2017 with rushing offense and defense playing a more significant role in their success, rather than trying to pass their way to a Super Bowl with inefficiencies in the other arenas. The reason there’s become almost these two styles of roster construction and that’s because the middle of the quarterback market is basically non-existent. Rookie contract quarterbacks who prove to be starters get contracts that pay over 10% of the cap if they just prove they’re a starting quarterback. So about half of the NFL’s quarterbacks are over 10% of the cap each year, while in reality there’s only a handful of quarterbacks who can be worth that kind of Quan as Rod Tidwell would say.

The second strategy is one that a few very successful teams used in 2017 like the Eagles, Rams, Jaguars and Titans. Even with Sam Bradford over 10% of the cap, the Vikings sort of executed this strategy as they’d already built out their roster with Teddy Bridgewater’s contract in mind with an elite defense and rushing attack, but then added Bradford after he went down. They then had Case Keenum lead them to the NFC Championship. The risk here is that you have to hit on the right quarterback, then you still have to build a complete roster around that quarterback, which also comes with inherent risks. You still have to spend the money around that quarterback well. The Jets will either have to have almost complete certainty that their choice for their franchise quarterback will fall to them at #6 of make a play to move up in the draft.

This strategy also leaves open the potential for using a lower-cost, bridge quarterback in the quarterbacks first few years and the Vikings trio of Bradford, Bridgewater, and Keenum may be at a price that makes that possible, while bringing Josh McCown back for another year wouldn’t be the worst option. McCown isn’t a great option at quarterback, but with an improved offense around him, which they should have with the cap space they have available to him, he could help the team compete and take a step towards .500 in 2018 with their 2018 first round pick at quarterback becoming the starter in 2019. If the Jets take a Bradford, Bridgewater, or Keenum and select a player in the first round, they could also trade the veteran for draft picks after the 2018 season, which is a strategy the Eagles and Chiefs have recently used with their veteran quarterbacks being bridges to the quarterbacks they drafted. If the Jets need to trade draft picks to move up into the top three to four picks to select the quarterback they want, they can then trade the veteran quarterback to re-coup some of the picks they lost in the trade to move up.

To this point, the Eagles gave up five picks to get two picks and move up to draft Carson Wentz. They then gained two more picks, even getting back a first round pick they used on Derek Barnett, when they traded Bradford to the Vikings after Bridgewater went down. The fourth-round pick they received from the Vikings was eventually traded to the Dolphins to acquire Jay Ajayi, so the Wentz trade worked out in more ways than one. I went over the impact the Bradford trade had on the NFC Championship on OTC two weeks ago.

Before going further, we should discuss the moves the Jets could make to clear even more cap space as that’s a vital part of this decision making process. So to start, after accounting for the money they’re estimated to spend on rookie contract currently, the Jets had almost $63.5 million in cap space. The biggest and most obvious move the Jets will be making is the release or trade of Muhammad Wilkerson, which will come after June 1st as his dead money cap hit will sink to just $3 million, which would save the Jets $17 million in cap space bringing their total cap space near $80.5 million. That’s the most obvious and the only certain release, but we’ll go into five more cuts that could happen. Wilkerson could be used to move up in the draft if a team needy for a defensive end, like the Colts, sees value in him, which is a possibility. He was also performing at a much higher level before he signed his five-year, $86 million contract, so maybe being traded to a team where he won’t have dead money to protect him from being released will help incentivize him to play better.

The first option is Buster Skrine who a lot of Jets fans and writers seem ready to move on from with the majority being in favor of instead re-signing Morris Claiborne if they want to have a veteran cornerback, better yet they should probably use some of that cap space to go after a top cornerback in free agency rather than settle for two players who weren’t great in 2017. Skrine was Pro Football Focus’ 85th ranked cornerback with a 65.7 rating, while Claiborne was their 99th ranked cornerback with a 48.5 rating. If they were to release Skrine, his $8.5 million cap hit would become a $2.5 million dead money charge saving $6 million in cap space, which brings their cap space to $86,428,277.

Offensive tackle Ben Ijalana is the next potential cut with a cap hit of $5,921,875 after being beat out by 2016 fifth round pick Brandon Shell at right tackle in 2017. He has a dead money charge of just $1.25 million, so he’d clear $4,671,875 to bring the team up to $91,100,152 in cap space.

Running back Matt Forte is the next likely cut as he’ll be 33 years old and there just isn’t much there running the football now that could make him worth his $4 million cap hit with just $1 million in dead money. Whether you want to spend that money on someone in 2018 or roll the cap space over into 2019 when the team is more likely to be competitive, either move is better than spending an extra $3 million on a running back whose best skill is receiving the ball, which Bilal Powell can do. The Jets need to draft a running back or select one in free agency who can give this running game a serious boost because whoever is at quarterback needs a rushing offense that ranks better in yardage production than the 19th they ranked in 2017. Powell is only signed through 2018 and he’ll be 30 this year, so they need to draft a running back even if they sign one in free agency. The release of Forte brings the cap space to $94,100,152.

Offensive guard James Carpenter represents the last of the highly probable cap casualties with the opportunity to save $4.7 million against his $6,805,000 cap hit with $2,105,000 in dead money. He was Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked offensive guard for a line that Football Outsiders ranked as the league’s 29th ranked rushing line and the 27th ranked pass blocking line. The saving grace for Carpenter could be the lack of depth in the group of free agents on the offensive line this offseason. Worth mentioning that with many of these guys having dead money that will count against the cap, that’s not as much of a concern considering the huge allotment of cap space they’ll have to make moves around those dead money charges. The release of Carpenter would bring the cap space up to $98,800,152. If they decide to keep one of these players, other than Wilkerson who is gone, they’ll still have over $90 million in cap space.

One more potential release, but who I don’t think they’ll cut, is wide receiver Jermaine Kearse who has a cap hit of $5 million with $0 dead money against the cap having come over from the Seahawks in the Sheldon Richardson trade September. I think at 2.79% of the cap he could actually be a good value for the team coming off a campaign where he had 65 catches for 810 yards and five touchdowns with a 63.7% catch rate. He’s a great second or third option behind a legitimate #1 receiver with Quincy Enunwa and a WR1 they should be looking to add in free agency. Robby Anderson might no longer be with the team in 2018 after his attempt at conducting police outreach for the NFL by allegedly telling the officer he was going to have sexual relations with his wife, then, for lack of a better word, climax in her eye, which is just rude and not a great way to win friends and influence others as Dale Carnegie would advise. With Anderson’s penchant for douchebaggery, the Jets will likely keep Kearse on board.

With this $98.8 million in cap space in mind, we can take a look at the quarterback situation. I don’t think the Jets win the Cousins’ sweepstake and I don’t think they should want to either for two reasons. The first reason is that I don’t think Cousins will be worth the price tag he will receive in that $25 to 27 million per year range, so the Jets should refrain from making that move. They should instead invest in a lower cost quarterback in free agency, like Bradford, Bridgewater, or Keenum, even McCown, and draft their quarterback of the future. They should then use the cap space they have to make serious upgrades to the rest of their roster with glaring needs at running back, wide reciever, tight end, across the offensive line, then along their defensive front seven and their cornerbacks. Basically, the Jets need to improve their entire roster rather than invest a big chunk of change in a quarterback, who former Redskins GM Scot McCloughan says is a good player, but also added that he doesn’t see a “special” player when he looks at Cousins.

According to this NFL.com article, McCloughan added that when they first tagged Cousins in 2017, Washington was “building a roster around him to make him special,” which in my opinion then wasn’t possible because of the cap hits he had as well as the large cap figures they were giving to cornerback Josh Norman. McCloughan says that while Cousins is “talented” and he “works his tail off,” he warned that for Cousins to succeed, a team needs more than just a signal caller. “You just need to have some talent around him because you don’t want him to be throwing the ball 35 to 40 times to win the game.”

McCloughan promised the interviewer at 104.3 The Fan in Denver, the interview these statements come from that Cousins has definitely done his homework on the various potential situations around the league and will be looking to put himself in the best situation for himself as a player, which I personally think takes the Jets out of the running because they have so many positions and roles to fill. McCloughan says, “personally, knowing him, it’s not about the money. It’s about the right fit, where he knows he has stability, he has good coaches, he has good players, and he has a chance to be successful.” No matter who Cousins signs with he will be a rich man, but he wants to go somewhere that he’ll have success too. Considering the Jets have had five offensive coordinators since 2011, they don’t even have stability, especially with the unexpected firing of John Morton. With Cousins’ desire to play in a situation where he can be successful in mind, teams like the Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings, and Bills make much more sense than New York and each of those teams either have the cap space or could make cap space to sign Cousins if they want him bad enough.

With Cousins likely out of the picture, we move toward one of the lower cost options I mentioned along with a first round pick at QB. The cap space should then be used to build up all these other positions of needs with the other draft picks then becoming supplemental pieces and players who eventually take over for the players taken in free agency. Going over the team needs we have basically every position except safety and defensive tackle are on the list of team needs.

First, the team does have some free agents they will want to re-sign. McCown could be one of them dependent on the strategy they have for addressing the quarterback position in the draft, but I would like to see them use Bradford, Bridgewater, or Keenum as the bridge instead to leave open the potential of receiving a draft pick in a trade after the season. Some Jets beat writers say Claiborne should be re-signed, while also saying Skrine should be gone. Since they covered the Jets more closely than I did, I’ll defer to their judgement and if he’s available for a similar one year deal worth $5 million, then re-signing him to be the veteran prescence at cornerback would be a move.

I’m of the mind they should instead use that cap space to sign a better veteran option. Trumaine Johnson would probably be at the top of that list as he’s been established as top cornerbacks for a couple years now. Malcolm Butler might be an option with a lower price after a down 2017 and maybe an even lower price after being sat in the Super Bowl. Bears cornerbacks Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller are both good options with Fuller putting forth PFF’s 23rd best season for cornerbacks in 2017 and Amukamara being a second tier option. Rashaan Melvin of the Colts is another player who came on strong in 2017 with PFF’s 17th best rating at the position. Patrick Robinson is in that same category as PFF’s 4th best cornerback, but he’s a bit older heading into his 31 year old season, which might actually mean he could be a good value if his 2017 level of play can continue. Bills cornerback E.J. Gaines was PFF’s 13th cornerback and Nickell Robey-Coleman of the Rams was the 19th rated cornerback. They have so much cap space and so many good options in free agency that I think they’d benefit from going there rather than settling for re-signing Claiborne, but they have the cap space to do both as well if they want to. If they do sign a top cornerback to pair with Claiborne, then he might be improved in 2018 if he’s put in a position to cover a team’s WR2.

The Jets have two young tight ends hitting free agency in Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Eric Tomlinson. While Tomlinson is more of a veteran minimum guy that the Jets could want to re-sign as a viable third tight end behind 2017 5th round pick Jordan Leggett who is a talented and fluid athlete for his 6’5″, 258-pound frame. Leggett could be the tight end of the future if he develops after missing the 2017 season with a knee injury. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a very talented player who could be an elite tight end after dealing with substance abuse issues during his first few years in the NFL. He was a 2nd round pick for the Buccaneers in 2014 and started all nine games he played in his rookie year averaging 24.6 receiving yards per game, which is almost a 400-yard season stretched out over 16 games, a great season for a rookie tight end. He improved on that in year two with rookie Jameis Winston under center. ASJ had 338 yards in just seven games, which is 48.3 yards per game and comes out to 773 over 16, so he has the potential to be the top-flight type of tight end. In 2017 with Josh McCown as his quarterback, he had 50 catches for 357 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games. As a tight end, he’s already in a low-cost market, but since he hasn’t broken out as a clear TE1 type of player, he will be even less expensive. There’s the potential that the Jets could re-sign him for something in the $3-4 million range, which would be a great deal for a player who could be a match-up issue at tight end that could produce 35 to 50 yards per game with better quarterback play and better weapons around him. His substance abuse issues may affect the market for him, making him even less costly.

Ever since seeing Seferian-Jenkins play at Washington in college, I’ve thought he has the size, skills, and athleticism to be a serious match-up problem in the NFL, a player with top tier tight end potential, which means more like a five to six percent of the cap production value that the Jets could get near two percent of the cap. So with this in mind, they could keep their tight end group in tact at a low-price if they re-sign the two free agents with Leggett as the long-term player.

Inside linebacker Demario Davis is the next Jet that should be re-signed. He was PFF’s 8th rated linebacker with an 87.3 rating and it’s such an inexpensive position that they could re-sign the 29-year old veteran to a contract in the $3-5 million range, which would be a good value for probably the best player on their defense in 2017. Two edge defenders they should re-sign if they can at a low-cost are Kony Ealy who should cost between $1-2 million per year, which would be worth it for a rotational 3-4 defensive end, plus outside linebacker David Bass who would be a good player to re-sign at the veteran minimum. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa should be re-signed at a similarly low-rate in the $1-2 million range as he’s coming off missing 2017 with a neck injury. Interior defensive lineman Mike Pennel could be re-signed for $1-2 million a year.

Okay, so starting with $98.8 million in cap space, let’s see where we stand after re-signings. Let’s call the ASJ and Tomlinson re-signings worth $4 million in 2018. We’ll have Davis at $4 million as well, then add $6 million for Ealy, Bass, Enunwa, and Pennel. That brings us down to $84.8 million in cap space.

If they re-sign McCown or they sign Bridgewater, that will probably be in the $6 to 7 million range in terms of cost. Bradford could be a little higher between $8 to 12 million a year dependent on how confident teams are in his knee, while Jason projects Keenum could go in the $12 to 15 million range per year. To play this scenario out, I think Teddy Bridgewater would be the best option out of any quarterback on the market for the Jets and where they are as an organization in 2018. If they bring Bridgewater in on a two to three year deal worth $7 million per season, which I think it’s more likely they get him on a two year deal as he’ll want to hit free agency again as soon as possible, they’re down to $77.8 million in cap space. That’s a lot of space left to sign offensive linemen, edge rushers, a WR1, a CB1, and even a running back if they so choose. That’s enough space that they should even have money they could rollover to take another big step forward in 2019.

This situation provides them the opportunity to build a good roster around Bridgewater like he had in Minnesota before he went down with his injury. The Jets can sell Bridgewater on the opportunity to play on a roster that he could succeed with and elevate the perception of him around the NFL to cash in on his next contract. He’s an accurate, mobile, young game manager who could be the perfect bridge to whoever they hope to draft in the first round. As stated before, with a two-year contract, it would provide the Jets the opportunity to re-coup any draft picks they trade away if they move up into the first three to four picks to draft a quarterback.

Speaking to the idea of signing cornerbacks earlier, the Jets could take who they determine to be the best and the best value of the group mentioned earlier and sign them to a contract in the $10 to 14 million range. Let’s say it’s a $12 million cap hit in 2018, so the team is now at $65.8 million in cap space. For wide receivers they could sign Jarvis Landry as a quick, short passing option who can run every route, while being a chain moving pass catcher. The addition of Landry would make any quarterback better and with low-costs at quarterback, it would be affordable. Say he’s at $12 million as well in 2018, the team is then at $53.8 million in cap space. If they instead signed Allen Robinson to a one-year prove it deal, he could be on a one-year deal at about $10 million, which would put the team at $55.8 million in cap space. Sammy Watkins, Marqise Lee, and Paul Richardson could be had at a lower price, so they’re options as well. In my opinion though, if they keep Anderson on the roster with Kearse, then signing one of those three would add another receiver who does the same things well that their current receivers already do well. Albert Wilson of the Chiefs feels like a good low-cost option if they want to add a second receiver in free agency. If they don’t keep Anderson and they want an inexpensive deep threat, Brice Butler of the Cowboys could be a good low-cost option to bet on.

Looking at the interior of the offensive line, left guard Andrew Norwell of the Panthers has been one of Pro Football Focus’ best and most consistent guards over the first four years of his career and could likely be had for a maximum of $10 million per season. Ravens center Ryan Jensen could be signed for $7-8 million a year, Weston Richburg of the Giants might be a little cheaper. If they just made signings like those at those two positions in free agency, the line would be vastly improved and signings on the interior of the line are less expensive than signings at the tackles. There aren’t many good options at tackle in free agency either, so they may want to ride with Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell, then address the position in the second or third round of the draft. The hope will be that improvements on the interior of the line will improve the whole line. Say they make these two moves, they’ll have $37.8 million left in cap space to address edge rusher and running back. This is just an estimation of where the team could stand with moves that would make sense to give a picture of what the offseason could look like.

With that kind of cap space left they can go after more than one solid edge rusher, which is a huge need. The interior of their line is solid, Leonard Williams, Steve McLendon, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Mike Pennel led an interior of the defensive line that Football Outsiders ranked as the sixth best defensive line against the run, but the edge rushers failed in producing pressure consistently, which had them ranked 25th in the NFL with an adjusted sack rate of 5.8%. McLendon might be the best value on the Jets roster currently slated to make 2.30% of the cap with PFF’s second highest run stop percentage at 12.8%, just behind Damon Harrison of the Giants at 13.4%. Williams wasn’t as good against the rush, but he was PFF’s 13th best interior defender in pass rush productivity with a 7.6 rating. Part of the reason that the Jets will find it so easy to move on from Wilkerson is that both of these players are playing at a higher level than him, so he’s not worth the price. McLendon and Williams form a versatile and talented tandem that can cause problems for any line in the NFL.

On the edge, the Jets best pass rusher was Jordan Jenkins who ranked 53rd in the NFL with a 7.9 pass rush productivity rating. As you can see, that’s higher than Williams, but edge defenders as a group have higher PRP ratings than interior defenders. They need help here, so they could go for an expensive player like the soon to be be 26-year old DeMarcus Lawrence who could cost $15 million a year taking the cap space left down to $22.8 million. Or they could go after Ezekial Ansah who might be a little less expensive due to turning 29 in May and some fluctuations in his play over the last two years, but will still be in that class of cost. Another defensive linemen they could consider who might be less expensive would be the soon to be 30-year old Adrian Clayborn of the Falcons who was PFF’s 19th rated edge defender and had 9.5 sacks in 2017. A red flag with Clayborn is that six of those sacks came against a Cowboys team that in their first game without left tackle Tyron Smith, so maybe the sack total was an aberration. He might be more like $8 million a year. Alex Okafor from the Saints could be in a similar range. For an outside linebacker, Trent Murphy of the Redskins could be had at something like $4 to 5 million coming off a season he missed due to injury. After addressing edge defenders, the Jets could have $15 to 25 million in cap space.

We still haven’t address running back in free agency, which is typically not a position I would go to free agency to address, but if the team could sign Le’Veon Bell to pair him with a low-cost quarterback structured roster, the team could really have a nice offense that could elevate the play of the quarterback, while still addressing defensive needs to build a roster that could compete in the playoffs. If they were to sign him, it’d likely be for about $15 million a year, but Bell just said on Twitter he wouldn’t even sign with the Jets for $60 million. Even though he grew up a Jets fan, he says it would take $100 million to sign with the Jets. Maybe he’s just joking around, but it seems like the Jets are off the table.

Let’s act as if he is still an option for the Jets and they could sign him. In that case, I would probably suggest against the big signing of Lawrence or Ansah and instead signing two or three defensive linemen who could play between 40 and 70 percent of snaps with fresh legs that can produce pressure, which is a strategy being used by some of the best organizations around the NFL. That strategy is, rather than invest heavily in one defensive lineman and play them 85 to 90 percent of snaps, instead sign a few less expensive players to create a deep rotation.

Since running back is such a fickle position to address in free agency, the Jets might be better served going for a lower cost option and finding their running back of the future in the draft instead. It’s worth noting that the Steelers gave Bell 742 touches in 27 games over the last two seasons with 582 of those being rushes. Averaged over 32 games, those 582 rushes become 21.5 per game, which is 690 over two years or 345 per season. They were quite literally running him into the ground and planned on discarding him after either 2017 or 2018 if they can fit him into the cap.

There is a reason that Bell is threatening to retire if the Steelers tag him again, he and his agent understand what they’re doing. They’re trying to ride him out on these franchise tag numbers rather than pay him the price that the multi-dimensional weapon that he is would garner on the free agent market. Google “running backs after 300 carries” and you’ll find plenty of analysis that indicates there are strong odds for a statistical drop-off in the year after a 300 carry campaign and in many cases that drop off can be drastic. Here’s an example from Tim McManus of ESPN:

Bell might not be the free agent prize that teams are hoping he is. While he’s obviously immensely talented, he might be due for a down year or an injury due to the abuse running backs sustain. He and his agent have good reason to be pissed off at the Steelers.

Bringing it back to the Jets, or any other team interested in him, Bell could still be a valid option. Maybe he’s a freak like Marshawn Lynch and he can deal with that kind of workload, but lower cost options that could be starting running backs include Isaiah Crowell, Carlos Hyde, and Dion Lewis who could cost in the $4-5 million range, then address running back with a second, third, or even fourth round pick. Jerick McKinnon could be an option, while LeGarrette Blount or Alfred Morris could be signed as a goalline or short yardage back for a team that would be lacking one. Rex Burkhead could be versatile and inexpensive in the $1-2 million range. The second through fourth rounds are stacked with running backs every year and this year could have the following: Kerryon Johnson of Auburn, Derrius Guice from LSU, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb out of Georgia, Akrum Wadley from Iowa, LJ Scott from Michigan State, Ronald Jones II from USC, Royce Freeman from Oregon, Rashaad Penny from San Diego State, and Josh Adams from Notre Dame. Point being, there are a ton of options to choose from and they could even take two if they don’t want to go to free agency and feel it’s appropriate. This route will leave them with over $15 million in cap space to rollover into 2019 with another year invested in this improvement and a higher likelihood

If the Jets can address all of these needs in free agency with smart signings for players who fit their system, then the draft can become a place where they improve their team for the long-term. They could re-address positions of need through these selections, while using the second round pick gained from the Sheldon Richardson trade in a package to move up for the quarterback they desire. The Jets are in a position to succeed in a way they have not been in years, so it should be one of the most exciting offseasons in recent memory for fans of the downtrodden franchise. Hopefully for them the Jets make the right decisions.