Where oh where is Windows Phone 8?

The hardware appears to be ready. What's going on with the software?

Two companies have now announced their Windows Phone 8 hardware. Samsung was first out of the blocks, showing off its ATIV S at IFA last month. With much fanfare, Nokia revealed its first pair of Windows Phone 8 handsets, the Lumia 820 and Lumia 920. But in spite of gathering journalists from all over the world, a few things were missing from Nokia's press conference.

Some things weren't entirely surprising. Nokia didn't announce any availability information—pricing, dates, carrier partnerships, all were left unspoken. While one always has to wonder about the value of this kind of paper launch—it may create excitement, but there's no way of converting that excitement into revenue if nobody can actually place an order—it's an unfortunate industry standard practice.

But what was a little surprising is that there were no handsets for the press to play with. There were some demonstration units carefully attended by PR personnel, and while we were able to get kind of close to them, the general rule was "you can look but you can't touch." This isn't unprecedented, but it's a little unusual for such a high-priority smartphone launch. Touching the phones, seeing how they feel in the hand, checking that their UI is nice and fast, these are all important parts of a smartphone launch.

The problem Nokia has appears to be not so much its hardware; it's the software. Windows Phone 8 isn't done yet. Not only is Windows Phone 8 not done, it's not even public yet. If Nokia let the assembled members of the fourth estate use its shiny new phones, they'd end up learning about Windows Phone 8's unrevealed features—features that Microsoft hasn't yet talked about.

All we officially know about Windows Phone 8 was announced in San Francisco in June. This event was originally billed as a "Windows Phone Developer Summit," and according to the first set of invitations that were sent out, it was originally due to last two days. It's unconfirmed, but widely believed that Microsoft was planning to ship the Windows Phone 8 SDK at the same time.

Whatever the cause of the delays—whether they're because Microsoft has bitten off more than it can chew with the kernel transition, or due to some other reason—the situation is now growing critical.

With the end of summer fast approaching (I may be old-fashioned, but the equinox marks the end of the season), with the occasional leak excepted, the SDK is still nowhere in sight.

Apparently aware that time is running out, Microsoft has at long last spoken. Next week, the company will release a beta SDK... to a few people. Calling it a limited "Preview" release, some number of developers with existing, published Windows Phone 7 applications will be able to use the new SDK. This is in addition to an existing private beta program already running, that's giving OEMs and special software partners access to the software.

A full SDK will come, but not until the company properly unveils the operating system—which is currently rumored to happen on October 29th. Presuming Windows Phone 8 devices ship this year—and Microsoft is certainly talking as if they will—that leaves developers little time to update their applications and get ready for the new platform.

Needless to say, developers are unhappy. They had months of SDK access prior to Windows Phone's initial release. The same was true of the major Mango update; Microsoft gave developers beta firmware, so that they could test it on real devices, and an updated SDK months before the software was actually delivered. iPhone developers similarly have ample access to new SDKs and firmwares; the iOS 6 SDK was first made available on June 11th. With iPhone 5 likely to materialize next week, that will be three months of SDK access to prepare for the new platform. This compares to a handful of weeks for Windows Phone 8 developers.

And getting that SDK is important, given just how disruptive it's going to be. The development model on Windows Phone 7 was pretty straightforward; normal programs used C# and XAML (Microsoft's language for developing user interfaces), 3D programs used C# and XNA (Microsoft's cross-platform 3D API built on top of Direct3D), and, with the release of Windows Phone 7.5, programs that needed both could mix and match both.

Windows Phone 8 is more complicated. Although it will continue to run Windows Phone 7 applications as is (whether XAML, XNA, or both), any applications that use new, Windows Phone 8-specific features, will have to fit a new development model. 3D programming will have to be C++, using Direct3D directly. XAML programs will continue to use C#. Mixing 3D with XAML will be possible, but will require a mix of C# for the XAML parts and C++ for the 3D parts. Certain Windows 8 APIs will also be available to new programs, with a mix of both C++-accessible Win32 APIs, and C++ and C#-accessible WinRT APIs.

Among other things, this means that any developer wanting to add new Windows Phone 8 support to an existing Windows Phone 7 program will have to rewrite all the 3D parts from scratch. That's a big deal.

Talking to some of those who have been using the beta SDKs, the reason becomes clear. The documentation is still very incomplete, and the platform as a whole still has more than its fair share of bugs. The software just isn't ready. It won't be ready next week, either, which is probably why Microsoft is limiting its distribution: in controlling who can use the SDK, Redmond can control who looks at the new features and who talks about the state of the SDK.

This all paints a troubling picture for Windows Phone 8. Microsoft's position in the smartphone market is tenuous, Nokia's is downright perilous, and a strong Windows Phone 8 release is the bare minimum needed to have a chance of turning that around.

As for what's making it take so long, it's hard to be certain, but we can speculate. None of end-user features—either officially announced, in June, or leaked via SDK emulators or other means—do much to justify the delays. The features are certainly desirable and valuable platform additions, but they don't appear to be especially complex or at any real risk of delaying the platform.

This would tend to point the finger at the architectural work Microsoft is performing. The switch to the NT kernel, along with the new mishmash of an API, with its mix of programming language requirements, was in all likelihood a major undertaking, as was ensuring that the NT kernel fulfilled the power and memory efficiency demands placed on a smartphone operating system. There was also plenty of ancillary work: the new Windows Phone 8 emulator, used for testing and development, requires the use of Hyper-V and Windows 8 (and as a result requires a processor that supports SLAT). The old emulator, meanwhile, had much less specific hardware demands, due to its use of Virtual PC as the underlying virtualization technology.

This work does have some value for developers, especially those wanting to use Direct3D, but it is not a pure win even for them—the inability to use XNA and new features in the same application is a bitter pill to swallow.

Whatever the cause of the delays—whether they're because Microsoft has bitten off more than it can chew with the kernel transition, or due to some other reason—the situation is now growing critical. It's not just that it's annoying developers; the delays are undoubtedly hurting Redmond's hardware partners. They need to be delivering the important information like prices and dates, and they need to be putting phones into the hands of press and public alike, without the fear that they'll see something they're not supposed to.

142 Reader Comments

I really want Windows Phone to succeed, because I think having a third competing operating system in the mobile world (unless you want to count RIM/BBOS...) is a great thing for driving innovation. I've seen & used WP7 phones and I think they've done a lot of creative, innovative, new and unique things. I don't always see WP7 features as 'better' than iOS or Android, but at least they're different.

That being said, I just cannot see how Microsoft can succeed with WP8. WP7 launched with a splash and had some decent hardware launched alongside. The Nokia 920 looks great and seems to have some really cool features. But its market share is so small and its ability to get attention & headlines is so limited that I don't see how Windows Phone can ever get to be anything other than a tiny portion of the mobile landscape.

Microsoft has a really great position - there are tens of millions of satisfied XBox users who I'm sure would love to see some synergistic functionality between their console & mobile device. There are hundreds of millions of Windows PC users who would love the same thing. But Windows 8 seems like a disaster in the making, offering lots of stuff nobody asked for and not much of what they did ask for.

At the end of the day, I think Microsoft only has itself to blame for its inability to make progress in mobile. They may have a lot of smart people doing great things, but they seem to have a real dearth of visionary leadership. I think Ballmer deserves a lot of the blame in that regard. He has overstayed his welcome and can't go soon enough. As much lip service as he wants to give to the new world of mobile, console, and home, MS can't seem to get out of its own way.

Let's hope that the OS is released on time. I still fear it may be too late, in my opinion the features that are in wp8 should have been in wp7. I think the overhaul of windows desktop plus releasing a new mobile OS are straining their resources.

Quote:

Among other things, this means that any developer wanting to add new Windows Phone 8 support to an existing Windows Phone 7 program will have to rewrite all the 3D parts from scratch. That's a big deal.

So Microsoft has managed to break compatibility 2x in 2 years? Amazing

As a current WP7 developer with two apps published in the marketplace, unless the user experience of running WP7 apps on WP8 is really bad, I will probably continue to build WP7 apps (C#, XAML, and most importantly XNA). While this is a short sighted solution, it will allow me to keep my current apps updated, while working on new "native" WP8 apps using C++ and Direct3D.

If the user experience of running WP7 apps on WP8 is not good, I will have to seriously think about switching to Direct3D and C++ and re-writing my code base. Not something I am looking forward to doing in the immediate future.

Didn't Nokia say Windows Phone will actually help them show up on the market faster? It doesn't appear to be so. Also, notice how no one is talking about Windows Phone 8, but only about Nokia's hardware? That's because there's nothing exciting about WP8. Nokia would've been a lot more successful if they paired that hardware with Android. Just look at the Galaxy S3.

Let's hope that the OS is released on time. I still fear it may be too late, in my opinion the features that are in wp8 should have been in wp7. I think the overhaul of windows desktop plus releasing a new mobile OS are straining their resources.

Quote:

Among other things, this means that any developer wanting to add new Windows Phone 8 support to an existing Windows Phone 7 program will have to rewrite all the 3D parts from scratch. That's a big deal.

So Microsoft has managed to break compatibility 2x in 2 years? Amazing

XNA appears to be dead, as such, C++ and Direct3D is "the future," so yes. Compatibility has been broken. That said, it doesn't stop WP7 apps from running on WP8, just they can't use new WP8 features. I'm probably sugar coating it (since it's a situation I face) but the WP7->WP8 is not as bad as the WP/WM 6.x -> WP7. That was a total rewrite, WP7->WP8 is only the 3D parts. For games, thats the whole (or most of the) app; for other apps, there upgrade path is better.

Among other things, this means that any developer wanting to add new Windows Phone 8 support to an existing Windows Phone 7 program will have to rewrite all the 3D parts from scratch. That's a big deal.

So Microsoft has managed to break compatibility 2x in 2 years? Amazing

Notice it's just 3D, so pretty much games. You can stick with XNA if you want though if none of the new 3D stuff is needed for you. Non-game apps should be fine.

As long as Nokia can blame MS, Elop has a degree of plausible dependability.

That MeeGo option I am sure is looking.... well maybe not good, but definitely not so bad. The N9 that I have had since May is starting to feel very rough around the edges. 18 months after the WP7 decision, the numbers are not great. They could have made a lot of improvements To meego in that time.

I'd love a dual core N9 with a PureView camera. The rest is just software polish. My largest problems are the dialer UI, the lack of copy-able text (this is just an attribute on the widget), and the lack of google integration (no Maps for example)

It's starting to feel like a feature phone with the lack of polish (and continued advancement of Android and iOS)

Well that explains why yesterday's announcement was very underwhelming.

dlux wrote:

Nokia should have just announced a release date on their own, and force Microsoft to either deliver or bail them out. Microsoft cannot afford to lose Nokia at this point.

That would be worse when they missed their target date. The problem I see is that they already demoed WP8 months ago, it should have already been done.

Then again, in some respects, JB was done months ago, but it won't be for some time before it pops up on phones.

If WP8 isn't even done yet, I wonder if the hardware oems will have enough time to properly build and test the drivers out before shipping the phones. It's going to be rough start for WP8 if the launch becomes a disaster with phones not working properly, possibly even tarnishing WP8 for good

Nokia would've been a lot more successful if they paired that hardware with Android. Just look at the Galaxy S3.

I think this is a non-sequitor. Android is popular so it would have saved Nokia sooner? Being on the popular OS does not make you successful. It's also a very saturated market in terms of OEMs, so that immediately makes it more difficult to elbow in. I think their logic of picking up a more designed, less crowded OS (and one that can cover them with attention) was the smarter move. It seems to be a slower process, and it kind of sucks right now with the sudden switch to a different way of handling the OS, but everyone seems to expect WP to become a solid #3 contender.

As for the article, it definitely sucks that the SDK has not been fully released and no release dates announced. I'm holding on to my upgrade because I'm in love with WP and want a new device, but how many other people in my situation will be willing to wait? Apple has it right; announce pricing and availability at your major events so that people can plan accordingly.

I don't think MS has lost the train with this one... yet. WP8 is looking good and will probably integrate even more strongly with Windows 8 and Xbox than WP7 / 7.5.

Having used an earlier Windows Phone, I appreciate the smaller icons (4 columns instead of 2) on the home screen so you can have more tiles readily available. The Metro UI really shows off in the Hubs, though. The MS-provided ones and the few apps I had that actually bothered to use them gave a far better experience than any other mobile OS.

That said, I don't see myself moving away from Android. WP is not a bad OS by a long shot. But it doesn't cater to me specifically. I don't want to lose the ability to access the file system and use my phone as a mobile storage device. Sure, you can use a number of cloud storage services, but you don't always have WiFi available and don't want to use up your data plan, or sometimes you can't use a cloud service on a work computer...

I also have a pet peeve with Nokia Maps. I don't know what the experience is like in other countries, but in my case I had the software tell me to drive off an overpass. Address searching was terrible for Portuguese addresses too. On my Android phone I use Google Maps and it hasn't disappointed so far, apart from the occasional crashes.

Hope many people will buy these phones, though. We all need the competition, and if anything Nokia has proved Apple doesn't have the exclusive of beautiful design.

It is hard to tell who the target audiences are for Windows 8 phones. The interface is geared towards Elementary kids, with the clunky colored blocks, etc. However, the hardware that powers the phone is usually found in devices for adults.

This whole experiment is doomed to failure. After 2 years on the market, Microsoft is STILL bleeding market share. Nokia only sold 7 million Lumia phones, WORLDWIDE, so far. Samsung just sold TWENTY MILLION of ONE MODEL in 100 days! Apple will probably sell 10 million iPhones next month alone! Nokia will be LUCKY if they can shift 10 million WP8 phones in a year!

Any time you look at the REALITY of the task ahead of Microsoft and Nokia, it becomes VERY clear that this platform is going NOWHERE. Add to the miserable sales a difficult development environment (and that is a charitable description of the MANY issues here!) and ANOTHER opaque "approval" process, and you have developers staying FAR away from WP development. Without the apps, customers will be staying away as well.

I understand that there is a VERY vocal Microsoft fanbase online, but all of the screaming fanboys in the world wont save this disaster of a platform!

Nokia would've been a lot more successful if they paired that hardware with Android. Just look at the Galaxy S3.

I think this is a non-sequitor. Android is popular so it would have saved Nokia sooner? Being on the popular OS does not make you successful. It's also a very saturated market in terms of OEMs, so that immediately makes it more difficult to elbow in.

Yeah, but why did anyone even buy a WP7 phone in the first place? Nokia.

Right now there are many OEMs making Android headsets, but the only one that matters is Samsung, sadly. I prefer HTC but that's just opinion. I'd strongly consider an Android Nokia headset, and I would have gotten an N9 if I knew it had a future.

Of course, Nokia wouldn't have gotten $125 million (a quarter?) from Google to make one

Alternatively, the software might be close to ready, but Microsoft want to play things close to its chest. Perhaps they want the last action, and are willing to frustrate and infuriate people, if only to get and keep their attention.

It reminds me a bit of poker. Microsoft is under the gun, so it's Surface and WP8 announcements are like a min raise, hoping it effectively buys them position. Of course, we'll see just how effective that might be. It's not really poker, since Apple and Google can win the pot before Microsoft even gets to respond.

Nokia should have just announced a release date on their own, and force Microsoft to either deliver or bail them out. Microsoft cannot afford to lose Nokia at this point.

That would be worse when they missed their target date.

I wrote that as tongue-in-cheek, but at the same time Nokia's stock took a pretty big pounding yesterday (it's partly recovered today). Microsoft's tardiness is having real-world consequences outside of tech blogs.

Posting as a consumer: I have an iPhone 4 at the moment and plan to get a Nokia Lumia 920.

I am sure MS is having problems having Windows 8 run from desktop workstation to cell phone but unless they miss the Xmas rush it's not going to be the end of the world. I thought they said Windows 7.5 Apps will run on 8?

There is also the fact that no matter how good Windows 8 is, and I love using the preview, the growth of this new platform will be slow. It will rely on word of mouth and if they release with a ton of bugs then it's going to make the growth curve flatter.

Frankly most consumers have no idea about the differences between Windows 8 and 7.5 but they do know how to judge the size of a screen and the look of the hardware. Most consumers only know a fraction of how to use Android or even Apple's aging iOS. What Nokia was able to show is most likely all that 99% of consumers will use..more tiles, sizing of tiles...

For developers it must be annoying because when a customer buys a Nokia Lumia 920 they will be more likely to spend a few dollars on a W8 app and for Nokia if W8 is not ready they will be stuck but I really do not see that happening.

I hope MS will not mess up the launch of Windows 8 mobile but I'm not buying another Apple iPhone running its tired iOS or going for an Android phone even if it has Jelly Bean.

Everyone. The tiles are not a bad design for a touch device. They had to invent something different from Android or iOS for brand-identity as to not be a "me-too" device, as all me-too devices MS has made have failed (except for the XBox) Then, here's the crux and weak link of it all, they expect to push the paradigm on everyone with Win8, so that your desktop and phone work the same. Now you see the real intent. To own the UI that people are comfortable with - to have consistency between computers and mobile.

But I think ultimately Win8 on PCs will fail. The tiles metaphor is not good on a desktop. And the rate of android innovation is outstripping the rest. MS Win8 users will be left on a trendy platform that is out of date.

So my forecast is general purpose PCs running android will be the more likely success. This will happen after tablets though.

As long as Nokia can blame MS, Elop has a degree of plausible dependability.

That MeeGo option I am sure is looking.... well maybe not good, but definitely not so bad. The N9 that I have had since May is starting to feel very rough around the edges. 18 months after the WP7 decision, the numbers are not great. They could have made a lot of improvements To meego in that time.

I'd love a dual core N9 with a PureView camera. The rest is just software polish. My largest problems are the dialer UI, the lack of copy-able text (this is just an attribute on the widget), and the lack of google integration (no Maps for example)

It's starting to feel like a feature phone with the lack of polish (and continued advancement of Android and iOS)

WP7.5 feels more like a feature phone than the N9. Where's the extensibility?

Where are you missing Copy-paste again? In the Call List of the Phone app, you can long-press a number and be offered the opportunity to copy it. Jump to the Keypad tab, touch the "New contact" icon and paste the number. If the number is on the Contacts and appears as a name, you just touch to call. To copy personal data you use the Contacts app.

For lack of Google integration blame Google, or Nokia that did not pay Google. You do have Nokia Maps, though, and a 3rd party GMaps client, VeskuMaps

It's only version 1.3 - and probably the last version. Where was iOS at version 1.3?

"Some things weren't entirely surprising. Nokia didn't announce any availability information—pricing, dates, carrier partnerships, all were left unspoken. While one always has to wonder about the value of this kind of paper launch—it may create excitement, but there's no way of converting that excitement into revenue if nobody can actually place an order—it's an unfortunate industry standard practice."

Yeah - a standard industry practice if you exclude Apple. I understand that Apple also has a smart phone. I think it is called an iPhone. But I could be mistaken.

A question for the article author: How do you come to the conclusion that XNA is not supported? I was reading up on people who have been previewing the SDK, and they say that XNA apps are fully supported on Windows Phone 8: http://www.mobiletechworld.com/2012/07/ ... -detailed/

That's a MASSIVE difference in feature set, as if WP8 doesn't support XNA, Microsoft outright lied to use about all Windows Phone 7 apps working on WP8. Can we get a clarification/confirmation?

A question for the article author: How do you come to the conclusion that XNA is not supported? I was reading up on people who have been previewing the SDK, and they say that XNA apps are fully supported on Windows Phone 8: http://www.mobiletechworld.com/2012/07/ ... -detailed/

That's a MASSIVE difference in feature set, as if WP8 doesn't support XNA, Microsoft outright lied to use about all Windows Phone 7 apps working on WP8. Can we get a clarification/confirmation?

The link there is quite interesting if accurate. What we know so far, is that WP7 apps will run on WP8. So XNA will run on WP8, the question is, can WP8 apps use XNA? From what I've heard, the answer is no. According to the link you posted, the answer is yes. I guess we'll have to wait for word from MS or for the real SDK to drop to know for sure.

It was taken from the leaked SDK. XNA is only supported at the WP7.1 level. If you want to use WP8 3D features, you can't use XNA. WP8 will run that WP7.1 XNA app just fine, there will just be no WP8 specific stuff on it.

Is OpenGL not available to developers on this platform? They're not seriously asking mobile devs to port their 3D games / apps to Direct3D, are they? What value would there be in adding such a burden?

No, OpenGL is not, nor will it ever be, part of Windows Phone. However, that does mean all those games written for Windows and XBox can be ported more easily to phone.

The ANGLE project (which I just found, sorry if it's completely useless) could be a handy basis for moving things over. It could be forked and the "native" end redirected from DirectX 9.0c to whatever variant WinPhone 8 uses.

It was taken from the leaked SDK. XNA is only supported at the WP7.1 level. If you want to use WP8 3D features, you can't use XNA. WP8 will run that WP7.1 XNA app just fine, there will just be no WP8 specific stuff on it.

Oh, well that's fine, then. I just want to make sure the XNA-based game I bought on WP7 still work on WP8, even if they devs have abandoned them.

Microsoft needs new leadership and, with it, a new approach to the products it makes and sells.If, as I suspect, Microsoft wants to get into the 'whole widget approach', soft and hard manufacture, then they wont be able to do it with the current setup of useless dinosaurs.

The notion of matching phone software to PC software is pointless - its a bit like having your couch match the upholstery in your car - why?

There always needs to be some bridging piece(s) of software - like iTunes, I suppose, to allow the two discrete systems to work together. But thats ALL it needs to do.

Microsoft is a sluggish company that hates any change - but the change is here, like the divorce that no-one could see coming.

If they dont address the utter lack of vision inherent in the Dinosaur, they will take other companies down, there will be no competition, and eventually, they will also go down or be bought out.

The problem with the current management team at MS is that they do NOT believe the above could ever happen...

This is a problem that only Microsoft can get itself into...and they sucked Nokia into it. When you have a corporate culture like Microsoft's where everyone is competing against each other rather than working with each other...nothing really tends to go right. You end up with really good people getting left behind and all the "yes-men" running around kissing each other's asses. Meanwhile nothing gets done and the real competition is moving forward.

Ditch the corporate culture and ditch Balmer. Elop and Nokia might stand a chance. They have their products ready...too bad their products rely on Microsoft's OS, which like their Surface product seems to be DOA.

Don't kid yourselves MS fans: Surface product demo freezes (classic MS demo cliche) and nobody gets to see much up close beyond some demo apps (some tried and got device yanked away). Nobody really got to try the keyboard...so DOA. "Priming the pump" or not...Surface wasn't ready for the messy "Apple-like" reveal MS put forth. This is all very indicative of where Microsoft is...and where they are going. Microsoft really needs to step up or call their mobile initiative a failure and focus on Windows/Office/XBox and integrating other mobile solutions with Windows/Office/XBox.

I took your article on face value...there were handsets for the press to play with.

I've just read other major tech sites that report they have had hands on time with the new Nokia Lumia 920 and had some experience of the new Windows 8 experience. So this picture of reporters not being allowed to touch the Nokia phones is clearly only true for Ars Technica.

Seriously all the other high ranked tech sites had hands on time with the Nokia phones.

However, they were not concerned about the SDK but reported on the new feel of W8 on the new Nokia phones.

But this idea that Windows 8 was totally absent and you were not allowed to touch one but only look at it simply is not the experience of the majority of tech sites.

I cannot comment on the SDK but as the launch of W8 is not due until the end of October it would be odd to launch Windows 8 SDK now.

But to claim there were not handsets to play with when there were..maybe not for you...is being economical with the truth at best.