April and May surveys are polls apart on raising Seattle minimum wage

A new telephone poll, paid for by a union that champions the $15-an-hour minimum wage, shows that nearly three-quarters of Seattle voters support the $15 wage and that Mayor Ed Murray’s phase-in plan is by far the most popular proposal.

David Rolf, president of Service Employees International Union Local 775, was co-chairman of Murray’s minimum wage panel, stood beside the mayor and endorsed his plan as it was unveiled at a May Day media event.

The SEIU-financed poll, taken May 4-8, is being treated as holy grail and gospel truth by those on the Seattle left who took pains last month to debunk a poll that produced very different results.

Socialist Seattle City Council member Kshama Sawant has argued that non-stop demonstrating will push Seattle to adopt a $15-an-hour minimum wage.

The April survey, by Portland-based DHM Research, showed an almost even division, with 47 percent supporting a $15-an-hour wage and 48 percent opposed.

The DHM survey was sponsored by OneSeattle, a coalition of small and large businesses that has called for a phase-in and that such benefits as tips and employer-provided health care be included in counting minimum wages.

(DHM has a reputation for polling on issues and candidates dating back to the early 1990s. It has accurately tracked rapid changes in opinion on numerous Washington and Oregon ballot measures.)

The SEIU poll, by EMC Research, shows top-heavy majorities of young and old, men and women, Democrats and independents, supporting $15 an hour. Republicans are the only sector of the Emerald City’s population — albeit a small sector — to go heavily against it.

The poll was distributed Wednesday by Rolf. It is a vehicle with which the SEIU and unions backing Murray’s plan can poke at groups right and left who are thinking of mounting initiative campaigns.

The EMC-SEIU poll tested three proposals: It found “significantly stronger support” for Murray’s plan than the other two proposals tested, saying “it is the only measure with majority support.” EMC found, when explained, that 57 percent would support the plan.

The Murray plan, set for submission to the City Council, calls for a three-year phase in of the $15 minimum wage for larger businesses with a phase-in of up to seven years for small business. Tips and health care would be factored in for a time.

The second proposal, akin to one offered by socialist City Council member Kshama Sawant, would implement a $15 wage immediately for big business and over three years for small business. No benefits would be included in factoring the wage. Support totaled only 45 percent in the EMC poll.

A third proposal, akin to some circulated in the business community, would have an eight-year phase in with employee tips, health care, and other benefits permanently part of $15-an-hour calculations. It garnered only 41 percent support.

The $15-an-hour debate has been on Seattle’s front burner for months. It has been kept there by non-stop public demonstrations by supporters. Small businesses — particularly restaurant owners — have carried their reservations via meetings with Murray and City Council members.

Washington has, at $9.32 an hour, the highest minimum-wage level in the country. But several progressive states are moving to enact President Obama’s proposal to raise the $7.25-an-hour federal minimum wage up to a $10.10 an hour minimum.

While having cooperated on bipartisan minimum wage hikes in years past — most recently during the second Bush administration — Republicans in Congress have blocked Obama’s wage hike. House Speaker John Boehner will not even allow a vote on the $10.10 proposal.

The EMC-SEIU poll has produced results far different, not only from the DHM April survey in Seattle, but from a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken last winter.

The NBC/Journal poll showed strong support, 63 percent, for raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour. The support fell off to just 43 percent for a $12.50-an-hour minimum, and only 28 percent for a $15-an-hour wage.

According to EMC, however, a choice between $15 and $12.50 is no contest — in Seattle at least. Fifty-seven percent would support the higher $15 an hour compared with only 38 percent backing $12.50 an hour.

The poll shows Murray and labor unions having the highest public credibility on the issue, much higher than Sawant or her Socialist Alternative political movement.