I’ve already given more than my two pfennigs
worth about Chuck Pagano. The Colts (11-5 SU and ATS) are 10-3 SU and ATS since
he was diagnosed with leukemia, and I’m not inclined to wager against them. Neither
are two out of three bettors, according to our consensus reports.

Yet here are the Ravens (10-6 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) bridging the NFL betting
gap. Lewis has missed every game since Week 6 with a torn triceps, but he’s
expected to return Sunday, and while Lewis may have lost a step at age 38, he’s
still a force with which to be reckoned. Now we can expect the same from his
teammates – most of whom got plenty of rest in Week 17 as the Baltimore Ravens
B-team lost 23-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals (–5.5 at home).

There’s no question the Ravens have struggled this year, mostly due to
injuries on defense. But Sunday will be the first time that Lewis and LB
Terrell Suggs have played together this year. That’s upside, baby.

Lucky Strike

Upside is what the Colts were all about going into the 2012 season. But
they’ve already met and exceeded expectations, maturing quickly under difficult
emotional circumstances. Peyton Manning’s Colts went 3-13 in his first year
before going 13-3 in 1999. Andrew Luck’s Colts have already reached the top.

Sort of. Luck (76.5 passer rating) has played very well for a rookie,
and he’s pick-free in his last three games after throwing 18 on the season to
go with 10 fumbles. However, if the efficiency charts and Estimated Wins are
are to be believed, Luck should be the quarterback of a 6-10 team right now.
It’s their dogged success on third- and fourth-down conversions that has made much
of the difference.

Remember how the preseason buzz was on Joe Flacco and how he’d be taking
a big step forward this year? Didn’t quite happen. Flacco’s basic stats (22
TDs, 10 INTs, 87.7 passer rating) are better than they were in 2011, but his
passing DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) has slipped from No. 14
overall to No. 17, just two spots ahead of Luck.

And check out RB Ray Rice. He’s still a damn fine tailback (4.4 yards
per carry, 61 catches), but his numbers are also down from 2011. You can see
why the Ravens decided to cut offensive co-ordinator Cam Cameron loose in
December, although the timing was strange and there hasn’t been an immediate
renaissance under Jim Caldwell.

Maybe they’ll get it right for Lewis’ sake. During the regular season,
the Ravens were No. 20 in the league on third-down conversions (Indy was No. 7)
and No. 22 on fourth downs (Indy was No. 1). That seems pretty low for a team
that ranked No. 13 in offensive efficiency. I’ll stick with the Colts, but it feels
like a reckoning is coming.