Pacific forecast: S.J. growth to stay steady

Economy should grow starting in 2014, expert says

The economic recovery's glacial pace will drag along for a fourth year this year in California and San Joaquin County, but business conditions should begin to pick up speed in 2014, the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific predicted Tuesday.

The economic recovery's glacial pace will drag along for a fourth year this year in California and San Joaquin County, but business conditions should begin to pick up speed in 2014, the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific predicted Tuesday.

Accelerating growth will be seen later this year as the state's battered housing industry begins to recover with construction of an expected 40,000 housing units this year, growing to 70,000 homes and apartments by 2016.

"After roughly four years of sluggish 2 percent growth from 2010 to 2013, we anticipate California's growth rate to accelerate to 3 percent in 2014 and near 4 percent in 2015," the report said.

"2013 is not looking like a great year for California or the U.S.; a petty sluggish year," Jeffrey Michael, the forecasting center's director, said Tuesday.

This year, expected federal budget tightening and tax increases at both the federal and state levels will keep a lid on the expansion, he said.

"We do think the second half of the year looks a little stronger, and in 2014, things should be picking up a little bit more," he said.

As for San Joaquin County's outlook, Michael expects continued slow gains in nonfarm employment in the next few years.

Just don't be too concerned by the report's prediction that county job growth will fall to a meager 0.3 percent this year after a surprisingly strong 3.5 percent gain in 2012.

Michael believes state employment officials are off the mark in estimating 2012 job gains in San Joaquin County and neighboring Stanislaus County.

"We don't believe job growth will look as good as it's been reported in San Joaquin County, and we don't think job growth is as bad as it's been reported in Modesto," he said.

"We think we'll be looking at something more like 2 percent job growth in 2012 and 2013 (for both counties)," he said.

He expects the state employment estimates will be greatly changed when the annual revision is completed and the Employment Development Department releases new figures in March. And he'll probably revise his forecasts as well.

There are promising developments in San Joaquin County's near-term future.

One is this year's planned opening of the California Health Care Facility, a treatment facility for state prison inmates in Stockton, which will employ about 2,400 nurses, guards, psychiatric technicians, pharmacists and more.

"If you look out over the next 12 months, we have state and local government as the fastest-growing (job) sector, and that's the impact of the new prison hospital coming on line," Michael said.

He also welcomed recent news of Trincheo Family Estates planning a major expansion of its Lodi winery, which could bring 300 new jobs to the county by the end of 2015.

Michael compared that to an earlier announcement of Amazon.com building a new warehouse and bringing 1,000 jobs to Tracy.

"It's good, because I've looked at all the ag data around here; We're growing like 20 percent of the state's winegrapes and making 5 percent of the state's wine. Getting some of that capital investment here and getting some of that production here is just what we need to do to improve the local economy," he said.