McConnell Senate Leadership: Likely significant change

Flip to 2008. Harry M. Reid is Majority Leader. He has 51 Senators,
although Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) is unable to serve at this time so
he is not there to vote. Rule 22 was not changed. The filibuster lives.
The Democrats crafted the fine art of simply threatening a filibuster
and that ended most legislative reform. But now Senator Mitch McConnell
(R-KY) is the Minority Leader. He has 49 votes, 45 of which usually are
conservative. So Reid brings up the non-binding resolution critical of
the President's conduct of the Iraqi War. He had predicted the day
before that he could count 75 votes for the non-binding resolution. Then
the vote. Reed fell 11 votes short of achieving cloture. All Republicans
voted with McConnell. Morale changed instantly. At last Republicans
showed a little backbone. Reid had it good dealing with Frist. Frist is
a genuinely nice guy. He bent over backwards to be accommodating to the
then minority. But they showed no such mercy. They set a record for the
number of threatened and real filibusters. Now comes McConnell. He may
not be warm and cuddly (although his wife, Labor Secretary Elaine Chao
may feel differently) but he is tough and he is a leader.

I watched him win over a skeptical conservative audience. First, he was
on the side of grassroots conservatives by leading the charge to kill
that dreadful so-called Lobbying Reform Bill. Every conservative group
in America was thankful for what he had done to kill our right to
redress our grievances. Moreover, he is taking another shot at
McCain-Feingold, the law upheld by the United States Supreme Court,
which forbids advertisements about a Senator or Congressman's record 30
days before a primary and 60 days before the general election. McConnell
had brought the case against McCain-Feingold to the Supreme Court. In a
5-4 decision the Court sustained its constitutionality. Everyone was
shocked. President Bush had signed the bill saying he was sure it was
unconstitutional and the courts would straighten things out. It didn't
turn out that way. Now there is a new case brought by a Wisconsin
pro-life group. The United States Court of Appeals did strike down a
portion of McCain-Feingold but now it goes to the Supreme Court.
McConnell has weighed in with a brief amicus. He allowed as how the
Court doesn't pay much attention to briefs amici but held out the hope
that perhaps they might read his. Just to have another crack at
McCain-Feingold was welcome indeed.

But what really made McConnell a hero to conservatives was his
declaration that the Republican Caucus has the goal of confirmation of
appellate judges before the end of the Bush term. He has chosen the
number of 17 he seeks to have approved. That is the average number of
appellate judges which were approved at the end of the Presidency of
both Republicans and Democrats when the opposite party was in control.
He thinks he may be able to persuade the Democratic leadership to accept
that number. The problem is that Senator Patrick J. Leahy (D-VT),
Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, could bottle up all the nominations
and vote none to the floor. McConnell has in mind a plan to deal with
that possible problem.

McConnell correctly stated that the House is geared toward the majority
and the Senate is geared toward the minority. Senator Reid was so
frustrated after he failed to achieve cloture that he shouted at
reporters that he was in charge of the Senate, not the Republicans. I've
got big news for you, Senator. That is not true. Shortly after the
election I spoke with a veteran Senator. He expressed the view of most
of his colleagues. Better in the minority at 49 than the majority at 51.
If George F. Allen had held his seat in Virginia Republicans would be in
the same position that Reid is now. There would be high expectations
with little possibility for delivery. What is ironic is that had Frist
moved in timely fashion and amended Rule 22 Frist would be in a
Presidential race now. But Reid would hold the cards. If he could get
the Parliamentarian to rule that the end of the filibuster not only
applied to confirmations but to legislation as well and then if the
ruling could be upheld by Reid's majority he would be running the show.
Republicans are thanking the Good Lord that Frist didn't move because
they can play the same game as the Democrats played in the past several
Congresses. That makes McConnell the fellow who holds the cards. As long
he can persuade 41 of his 49 Senators to stick with him he can kill any
legislation. That being the case he has great leverage over scheduling.
If Reid really wanted to pass something he would be obliged to make
concessions to McConnell. Now Reid and his minions will scream bloody
murder. It will be up to McConnell and Senator Trent Lott (R-MS),
Minority Whip, to explain to the public what is going on and why. They
did just that on the non-binding resolution. It worked. All week long I
heard chants of "at last Republicans have shown some backbone."

If McConnell can pick up the kind of allies I witnessed his having
harnessed, and if (and this is really the hard part) he and the GOP
Leadership, which includes the just re-elected Senator John Kyl (R-AZ),
can explain this in plain English so that ordinary folks can understand
it, he just might stave off what could be a disastrous Senate election
in 2008. It presently is looking as if the GOP will emerge with 46 votes
but if the Presidential election goes the wrong way and brings out a
heavy liberal vote McConnell would end up with only 42 Senators.
Continuing the sort of leadership McConnell has shown in this first
month bodes well for the future. If he can keep it up and explain it
well, voters might give Republicans another chance.