For me its Lawrie. Higher upside, younger, in a much better lineup, and in a much better hitter's park. Personally, I'm not buying Headley this year. 19 of his 31 HR came in the last 2 months last year, so I'm not buying a repeat of that HR/FB ratio until he proves he can produce 30+ HR again. Although I can see the argument that Lawrie has not produced a 20+ HR season so he would be inferior, however, I'll still lean toward the upside of Lawrie becoming the next David Wright.

I too and sticking with the upside of Lawrie. Headley more than doubled his previous career high (12) which is one less than Lawrie had in his first full season despite playing 125 games. Headley's season seems fluky to me.

Lawrie was allowed to run slightly more then Headley...AB/SBO: Lawrie 23.52 (top echelon), Headley 26.26 (top echelon)....but Lawrie only has the advantage of two more opportunities per 500 ABs

If it's a re-draft I'm picking Headley and not even thinking about it. If it's a keeper/dynasty, Lawrie just starting his age-23 season brings him a lot closer.....but I still pick Headley at his stage because he has the elite season on the board. He's also a huge chance of being traded to a better park this year or next.

Lawrie was allowed to run slightly more then Headley...AB/SBO: Lawrie 23.52 (top echelon), Headley 26.26 (top echelon)....but Lawrie only has the advantage of two more opportunities per 500 ABs

If it's a re-draft I'm picking Headley and not even thinking about it. If it's a keeper/dynasty, Lawrie just starting his age-23 season brings him a lot closer.....but I still pick Headley at his stage because he has the elite season on the board. He's also a huge chance of being traded to a better park this year or next.

Headley's 21.4% HR/FB is the only number that appears to be unsustainable. 20-25 HR, instead of 30+, but the other numbers should be roughly the same. Lawrie isn't there yet.

There's absolutely no way im taking Lawrie over a proven Headley in a redraft... at all. Until Lawrie shows he can hang in the bigs there no need to suggest he will do what Headley did last year even with regressed numbers... (which would be lawries ceiling this year) Now in a keeper thats different.

Where have we seen a proven Headley though? In 5 full seasons in the majors we've seen one 2 month stretch really worth taking in the first 10 rounds. The other 20 months or whatever have been late round flier material. He seems like one of the flukier guys out there.