3 things to take away from the Palin Trump endorsement (& 1 to ignore)

3 things to take away from the Palin Trump endorsement (& 1 to ignore)

Sarah Palin:What if I was to choose Don­ald Trump as my run­ning mate?

Jerry Sein­feld:Sarah you’re teas­ing us, that’s not nice

SNL40th anniver­sary show 2015

Yes­ter­day while I was vis­it­ing the doc­tor, drop­ping off a note to my work to say I’d miss the rest of the week and becom­ing bet­ter acquainted with my pil­low Sarah Palin took a lot of peo­ple by sur­prise and endorsed Don­ald Trump for President.

While I would have thought my guy Ted Cruz would have been a bet­ter fit for her, par­tic­u­larly since like Palin Ted Cruz con­tin­ued to fight the fights that oth­ers shied away from, I’m pre­sum­ing that Trump’s rep­u­ta­tion as a man of action who gets things done was the deter­min­ing factor.

The sig­nif­i­cance of this endorse­ment can’t be over­stated for sev­eral reasons.

Spend­ing Polit­i­cal Capital

Sarah Palin is the per­fect polit­i­cal cap­i­tal­ist, she has taken her polit­i­cal cap­i­tal, invested it in the can­di­dates of her choice and come out with even more. No amount of polit­i­cal snark or clever Conan skits will change that.

One of the most impor­tant things about polit­i­cal cap­i­tal is know­ing when to spend it and when not to. For exam­ple Sarah Palin was will­ing to spend polit­i­cal cap­i­tal in the 2012 Texas Sen­ate pri­mary which got Ted Cruz to a runoff and even­tu­ally to the US Sen­ate against a can­di­date backed the gov­er­nor and a lot of the Texas estab­lish­ment. (Cruz would win by 13 points in a race that was described as “tight”) Con­trari­wise Cur­tis Bostic in the SC-​1 spe­cial elec­tion waited in vain for a Palin endorse­ment vs Mark San­ford and would even­tu­ally lose that pri­mary by 13 points. As I said at the time:

The essence of a smart polit­i­cal oper­a­tor is to know when to spend said cap­i­tal and when not to, when the expen­di­ture will lead to suc­cess and when it is in vain. When such a move can lead to vic­tory or when a defeat will be costly for the entire cause.

That she didn’t endorse in a state where she has endorsed before speaks vol­umes about this pri­mary and none of it is good.

That Palin was will­ing to go all in for Don­ald Trump tells me she thinks this polit­i­cal invest­ment will pay off.

Tim­ing

R. E. Lee:And then AP Hill Came Up

Repeated quote in Civil War dis­patches con­cern­ing bat­tles when Hill arrived in the nick of time

This has not been a good week for Don­ald Trump.

Ted Cruz had run cir­cles around him on the Birther Issue but had very effec­tively turned what was a win­ning debate moment for Trump, (NY Val­ues) into a neg­a­tive. Cruz had man­aged to do what Perry, Bush, Paul and Gra­ham could not, counter Trump effec­tively. It was so bad that Trump found him­self booed by activists which is not some­thing he is used to.

Talk radio hosts had either advised him against his attacks on Cruz or directly hit him for these attacks. It was a moment of cri­sis, one of the first moments of cri­sis for the campaign.

Then comes the Sarah Palin endorse­ment and the nar­ra­tive changes

Now the topic becomes how Trump got this key endorse­ment over Cruz. How THE favorite of the Tea Party, the per­son who has been per­son­ally respon­si­ble for the elec­tion of mul­ti­ple mem­bers of con­gress, the woman who was prac­ti­cally the only per­son (other than Rush Lim­baugh) will­ing to fight the fight against Obama when every­one else was run­ning for the hills has decided that Don­ald Trump is the best choice for the White House.

Sarah Palin rode over the hill just in time, just like the US Cav­alry in a motion picture.

There are sev­eral strong con­ser­v­a­tives you have records fight­ing for Con­ser­v­a­tive causes, both polit­i­cal, fis­cal & social and wear the scars from doing so such as Ted Cruz, Rick San­to­rum, Scott Walker and Rand Paul. What is the incen­tive for a con­ser­v­a­tive sup­porter of one of these can­di­dates to vote for you and how will you prove that once you’ve “made the deal” to be pres­i­dent your con­ser­v­a­tive argu­ment will still remain and you won’t, for exam­ple, appoint Supreme Court Jus­tices who sup­port Roe v Wade?

Pic­ture a group of peo­ple appointed by a prag­matic deal maker and pic­ture the estab­lish­ment and even the left hav­ing to deal with Trump and his appointees, many of whom will be self-​made and have absolutely no loy­alty to the con­ser­v­a­tive elec­torate that said estab­lish­ment loathes so much.

Then finally con­sider Trump him­self, he prides him­self as being per­son who is a great nego­tia­tor and deal­maker. The prob­lem with a deal­maker is the key ques­tion: “What do you give up to make the deal?”

If you are an Estab­lish­ment repub­li­can or even a demo­c­rat that ques­tion will con­sole you, but as a social con­ser­v­a­tive it does not.

These wor­ries are not unfounded, and given Trump past pub­lic state­ments con­cern­ing issues from Life to sin­gle payer, state­ments which Ted Cruz has taken full advan­tage of, are rea­son­able con­cerns. As a repub­li­can sen­a­tor once said to a for­mer demo­c­rat named Wilkie who was the party’s stan­dard bearer in 1940:

“Well Wen­dell you know back home in Indi­ana it’s all right if the town whore joins the church but they don’t ask her to lead the choir on the first night.”

I’m sure there is more than one GOP voter who likes how Trump has frus­trated the media and has spo­ken truths aloud that our “bet­ters” have pre­vi­ously for­bid­den us who have held back from sup­port­ing him because of this.

Sarah Palin solves this problem.

Palin’s pro-​life cre­den­tials are impec­ca­ble, her rep­u­ta­tion as a con­ser­v­a­tive is strong on all of the issues that mat­ter to a lot of con­ser­v­a­tives Palin has walked the walk.

The fact that she is will­ing to put that behind Trump is going to reas­sure a lot of peo­ple who were not quite sold. It gives Don­ald Trump the thing he needed the most.

These are the three big take­aways from the Palin endorse­ment. Here is one thing NOT to take away from it.

Palin’s endorse­ment is NOT an attack on Ted Cruz

Look I am not say­ing any­thing at all neg­a­tive about Ted Williams. The fur­ther we go into the analy­sis of the bat­ting sta­tis­tics, the closer we come to being forced to accept the con­clu­sion that Williams, not Babe Ruth, was the great­est hit­ter who ever lived. I think he was the sec­ond great­est left fielder who ever lived. That’s not criticism.

Bill James: The Bill James His­tor­i­cal Base­ball Abstract1985

When I endorsed Ted Cruz on Sept 30th I pointed out that this was not a cri­tique of can­di­dates like Rick San­to­rum and Bobby Jin­dal who I liked very much:

Like Bill James pick­ing Stan Musial over Ted Williams as the great­est left fielder of all time, my choice is not a cri­tique of either Gov Jin­dal or Sen­a­tor San­to­rum. If for any rea­son Sen­a­tor Cruz leaves the race before either of them I will be hon­ored to give pub­lic sup­port to either one of them (and will con­tinue to say good things about them on this site and on twit­ter). But the time has come to make a choice.

To say that The God­fa­ther is a bet­ter movie than Casablanca is not to say that Casablanca is a bad movie. To say you like the Red Sox more than the Patri­ots is not to say that you don’t like the Patri­ots, To say that Tom Brady is a bet­ter quar­ter­back than Pey­ton Man­ning is not to sug­gest Man­ning is a bad QB, to say that you like a steak din­ner over chicken that doesn’t mean you don’t like chicken.

Sarah Palin did not say any­thing bad about Ted Cruz, she didn’t say that she regret­ted sup­port­ing him in the past, nor has she cri­tiqued what he has done in the least. What she said that given the choice of the 11 remain­ing GOP can­di­dates her pick is Don­ald Trump.

Any attempt to spin that as “Ted Cruz sucks” is not only disin­gen­u­ous, but is dishonest.

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Sarah Palin:What if I was to choose Donald Trump as my running mate?

Jerry Seinfeld:Sarah you’re teasing us, that’s not nice

SNL 40th anniversary show 2015

Yesterday while I was visiting the doctor, dropping off a note to my work to say I’d miss the rest of the week and becoming better acquainted with my pillow Sarah Palin took a lot of people by surprise and endorsed Donald Trump for President.

While I would have thought my guy Ted Cruz would have been a better fit for her, particularly since like Palin Ted Cruz continued to fight the fights that others shied away from, I’m presuming that Trump’s reputation as a man of action who gets things done was the determining factor.

The significance of this endorsement can’t be overstated for several reasons.

Spending Political Capital

Sarah Palin is the perfect political capitalist, she has taken her political capital, invested it in the candidates of her choice and come out with even more. No amount of political snark or clever Conan skits will change that.

One of the most important things about political capital is knowing when to spend it and when not to. For example Sarah Palin was willing to spend political capital in the 2012 Texas Senate primary which got Ted Cruz to a runoff and eventually to the US Senate against a candidate backed the governor and a lot of the Texas establishment. (Cruz would win by 13 points in a race that was described as “tight”) Contrariwise Curtis Bostic in the SC-1 special election waited in vain for a Palin endorsement vs Mark Sanford and would eventually lose that primary by 13 points. As I said at the time:

The essence of a smart political operator is to know when to spend said capital and when not to, when the expenditure will lead to success and when it is in vain. When such a move can lead to victory or when a defeat will be costly for the entire cause.

That she didn’t endorse in a state where she has endorsed before speaks volumes about this primary and none of it is good.

That Palin was willing to go all in for Donald Trump tells me she thinks this political investment will pay off.

Timing

R. E. Lee:And then AP Hill Came Up

Repeated quote in Civil War dispatches concerning battles when Hill arrived in the nick of time

This has not been a good week for Donald Trump.

Ted Cruz had run circles around him on the Birther Issue but had very effectively turned what was a winning debate moment for Trump, (NY Values) into a negative. Cruz had managed to do what Perry, Bush, Paul and Graham could not, counter Trump effectively. It was so bad that Trump found himself booed by activists which is not something he is used to.

Talk radio hosts had either advised him against his attacks on Cruz or directly hit him for these attacks. It was a moment of crisis, one of the first moments of crisis for the campaign.

Then comes the Sarah Palin endorsement and the narrative changes

Now the topic becomes how Trump got this key endorsement over Cruz. How THE favorite of the Tea Party, the person who has been personally responsible for the election of multiple members of congress, the woman who was practically the only person (other than Rush Limbaugh) willing to fight the fight against Obama when everyone else was running for the hills has decided that Donald Trump is the best choice for the White House.

Sarah Palin rode over the hill just in time, just like the US Cavalry in a motion picture.

There are several strong conservatives you have records fighting for Conservative causes, both political, fiscal & social and wear the scars from doing so such as Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker and Rand Paul. What is the incentive for a conservative supporter of one of these candidates to vote for you and how will you prove that once you’ve “made the deal” to be president your conservative argument will still remain and you won’t, for example, appoint Supreme Court Justices who support Roe v Wade?

Picture a group of people appointed by a pragmatic deal maker and picture the establishment and even the left having to deal with Trump and his appointees, many of whom will be self-made and have absolutely no loyalty to the conservative electorate that said establishment loathes so much.

Then finally consider Trump himself, he prides himself as being person who is a great negotiator and dealmaker. The problem with a dealmaker is the key question: “What do you give up to make the deal?”

If you are an Establishment republican or even a democrat that question will console you, but as a social conservative it does not.

These worries are not unfounded, and given Trump past public statements concerning issues from Life to single payer, statements which Ted Cruz has taken full advantage of, are reasonable concerns. As a republican senator once said to a former democrat named Wilkie who was the party’s standard bearer in 1940:

“Well Wendell you know back home in Indiana it’s all right if the town whore joins the church but they don’t ask her to lead the choir on the first night.”

I’m sure there is more than one GOP voter who likes how Trump has frustrated the media and has spoken truths aloud that our “betters” have previously forbidden us who have held back from supporting him because of this.

Sarah Palin solves this problem.

Palin’s pro-life credentials are impeccable, her reputation as a conservative is strong on all of the issues that matter to a lot of conservatives Palin has walked the walk.

The fact that she is willing to put that behind Trump is going to reassure a lot of people who were not quite sold. It gives Donald Trump the thing he needed the most.

These are the three big takeaways from the Palin endorsement. Here is one thing NOT to take away from it.

Palin’s endorsement is NOT an attack on Ted Cruz

Look I am not saying anything at all negative about Ted Williams. The further we go into the analysis of the batting statistics, the closer we come to being forced to accept the conclusion that Williams, not Babe Ruth, was the greatest hitter who ever lived. I think he was the second greatest left fielder who ever lived. That’s not criticism.

Bill James: The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract 1985

When I endorsed Ted Cruz on Sept 30th I pointed out that this was not a critique of candidates like Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal who I liked very much:

Like Bill James picking Stan Musial over Ted Williams as the greatest left fielder of all time, my choice is not a critique of either Gov Jindal or Senator Santorum. If for any reason Senator Cruz leaves the race before either of them I will be honored to give public support to either one of them (and will continue to say good things about them on this site and on twitter). But the time has come to make a choice.

To say that The Godfather is a better movie than Casablanca is not to say that Casablanca is a bad movie. To say you like the Red Sox more than the Patriots is not to say that you don’t like the Patriots, To say that Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Peyton Manning is not to suggest Manning is a bad QB, to say that you like a steak dinner over chicken that doesn’t mean you don’t like chicken.

Sarah Palin did not say anything bad about Ted Cruz, she didn’t say that she regretted supporting him in the past, nor has she critiqued what he has done in the least. What she said that given the choice of the 11 remaining GOP candidates her pick is Donald Trump.

Any attempt to spin that as “Ted Cruz sucks” is not only disingenuous, but is dishonest.

Whether it damages Palin (seriously, what more damage can be done?) or not will be determined by whether Trump wins or loses. If he wins and she snags a cabinet spot to boot, thats a trophy she never would have gotten from any of the other candidates. Including Ted Cruz. I don’t see how that is a bad thing.

And thanks, I’m ready for the handwringing to end and political analysis to begin. This is an excellent start.

[…] left until Obama leaves the White House. OVER THE TRANSOM EBL: Democrats Poison Flint Da Tech Guy: Three Things To Take Away From The Palin Endorsement The Political Hat: Sex And Gender Are NOT Social Constructs Michelle Malkin: History Lesson – […]

[…] Over the years, I stopped pay­ing atten­tion to Sarah Palin, She made $12million bucks from her book deal, had a real­ity TV show that I never watched, and became a media per­son who care­fully bur­nished an image of king­maker with great polit­i­cal cap­i­tal. […]

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