Friday, November 4, 2011

Official Statement by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (November 4, 2011) Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up in October (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in the private sector rose, with modest job growth continuing in professional and businesses services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to trend down.

Unemployment Rate (Chart) Per the Household Survey Data, the unemployment rate (U-3) dipped to 9.0% (preliminary) in October 2011, which is 7 consecutive months at or above 9.0%. The unemployment rate had previously been at or above 9% from May 2009 through January 2011, for 21 consecutive months. The unemployment rate dropped below 9% in February and March 2011. The Great Recession peak was in October 2009 at 10.1%. The Post-Great Recession low has been March 2011, at 8.8%.

Underemployment Rate (Chart) Per the Household Survey Data, the underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 16.2% (preliminary) in October 2011, which is 5 consecutive months above 16%. The Great Recession peak was in October 2009 at 17.4%. The Post-Great Recession low has been March 2011, at 15.7%.

Total Nonfarm Employment Monthly Net Change (Chart) Per the Establishment Survey Data, total nonfarm employment monthly net change was +80,000 (preliminary) in October 2011. This is a 4-month low (revised), the lowest since since since June 2011 (+20,000). The total nonfarm employment job losses peaked during the Great Recession at -820,000 in January 2009. The best jobs gain subsequently has been the +458,000 in May 2010, which was mostly attributable to the hiring of census workers. Total nonfarm employment is a net number = net private sector jobs gain/loss plus or minus net government sector jobs gain/loss.

USA Net Jobs Gain (Loss) by Year (Chart) Per the Establishment Survey Data, total nonfarm employment by year illustrates the Great Recession job losses and subsequent insufficient Recovery rebound. 2007 was the last year to create jobs before the Great Recession, at +691,000 jobs gained. Great Recession job losses began in 2008 at -1,968,000. 2009 was even worse at -5,063,000. This resulted in a total of -7,031,000 jobs lost during the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. As the Great Recession ended in 2009 and the Recovery began, the net jobs gain in 2010 was a meager +940,000. From 2008 through 2010, the net jobs losses were -6,091,000. 2011 year-to-date net jobs gain of +1,256,000 is now higher than 2010 for jobs creation. Total nonfarm employment is a net number = net private sector jobs gain/loss plus or minus net government sector jobs gain/loss.

Commentary The October Unemployment Rate (U-3) of 9.0% decreased slightly -0.1% and the Underemployment Rate (U-6) decreased -0.3% to 16.2%. The Total Nonfarm Employment monthly net jobs gain/loss was +80,000 (preliminary), comprised of +104,000in the private sector and -24,000in the government sector. The prior months of August and September jobs growth data was revised upwards a total of +102,000 (see below). The overall BLS Employment Situation Summary indicates USA economic expansion continues very slow. The report indicates a continued weak to very weak, but not yet disastrous, employment situation for the USA.

BLS Revisions to Prior Months For September, net jobs gains were previously reported as +103,000, which was revised upwards to +158,000 in this latest October report. For August, net jobs gains were previously reported as +57,000, which was revised upwards to +104,000 in the latest October report. The net effect in the October report for the latest September and August revisions was +102,000 jobs gained.

[Editor's Note] Please note the unemployment and underemployment rates are calculated by a household survey and the monthly net change in jobs (increase or decrease) is calculated by an employer survey. The household survey includes self-employed and farm workers, the employer survey does not include these. Overall, the jobs data (employer survey) has continued to indicate insufficient jobs growth to decrease the unemployment rate (household survey).

About the Bureau of Labor StatisticsMission: The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor is the principal Federal agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy. Its mission is to collect, analyze, and disseminate essential economic information to support public and private decision-making. As an independent statistical agency, BLS serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. Vision: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will meet the information needs of a rapidly changing U.S. and global economy by continuously improving its products and services, investing in its work force, and modernizing its business processes.

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