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Prediction: We won't see lows as cold as Sunday (teens to
low 20s) or highs as cold as Saturday (30s) again until at least
November. Another frosty cold shot is probably inevitable in April
or even early May, but I think we're done with anything that
nippy this season.

UPDATE 9:40 AM, 3/29: Blacksburg tied its record low of
17. Roanoke's low of 23 came up a few degrees warm. A steady
warmup begins today with highs climbing into the 50s for many, with
60s and some 70s expected most of the rest of the week ahead. END
UPDATE

High pressure pushing cooler air against the mountains on Monday
may make it feel a bit nippy -- and there may even be some brief
drizzle, even freezing drizzle in higher elevations. But overall,
the next 4 days through Thursday offer nothing extraordinary in
terms of late March weather, with fairly normal temperatures and
some rain chances. There may even be an outside shot at
thunderstorms by Thursday. Perhaps some colder weather after this
period, but it still doesn't look likely to be an extremely
cold period for our region, relative to normal. The early week
Inclement Conditions Index is below:

With just a little bit deeper cold air, Thursday could have
easily been a decent snow event in our neck of the woods. As it
was, some of you in higher elevations and to the west and north of
Roanoke will awaken to some white on Friday morning -- mostly under
an inch -- but it won't last too long as temperatures,
gradually at first and then a little more quickly, rise through the
30s into the 40s and low 50s. There may be a little more rain in
the morning.

UPDATE 3:20 PM, 3/19: About 1,600 feet elevation appears
to be the dividing line between rain and snow, at least over the
Roanoke Valley. At 2:30 p.m. it was snowing on top of Mill Mountain
but raining in the valley. It is possible the snow level will get
lower this afternoon, so perhaps some flakes are possible in lower
parts of the Roanoke Valley. Snow has been falling for hours in
many parts of the New River Valley and the Blue Ridge south of
Roanoke but with very little if any accumulation. Snow and some
sleet may linger into the early evening before milder air aloft
gradually changes it all to rain, possibly excluding higher
elevations north of Roanoke. END UPDATE

UPDATE 10:15 PM, 3/16: Roanoke hit 77 and Blacksburg
reached 73 on Monday for the warmest days since October.
Tuesday's high will likely top 70 again in Roanoke and points
south and east, maybe not quite that warm to the west, but colder
air begins to move in behind a cold front for the rest of the week.
Rain is expected by Thursday, and it might be cold enough for some
spotty sleet and/or snow to start -- doesn't look like a big
deal in our area, though, just a reminder that cold weather
isn't quite over yet.

How times have changed: A cold front goes through with gusty
northwest winds, and highs are expected to reach the 60s in Roanoke
and 50s to the west behind it. Nothing shows the regime change in
the weather pattern more than that. A wind
advisory has been issued along and west of the Blue Ridge for some
50 mph gusts, mainly on ridgetops (worth a couple more points
rise from 2 to 4 on my Inclement Conditions Index from Thursday).
But these northwest winds aren't tapping the Arctic,
they're tapping milder air of Pacific and continental origin.
It's a typical spring cold front that brings breeziness, a mild
day with sunshine, and then a chilly night (many 30s lows by Monday
morning) as cooler, drier air moves in. But the temperature
rebounds nicely on Monday with sunshine -- perhaps Roanoke's
first 70-degree day since Nov. 24 -- and almost as mild on Tuesday
before another cold front sweeps across.

UPDATE 12:30 AM, 3/14: Short update tonight, hope to
post new Saturday evening. Showery weather will continue on
Saturday, though there continues to be indications of a lull during
the morning. Milder air will stream in with most spots making the
60s on Saturday afternoon, especially if there is peekaboo sun. A
cold front only takes us back to 50s highs and 30s lows for Sunday
-- much different than the cold fronts we were getting a couple of
weeks ago. Some more mild days are ahead this week before colder
weather toward late week. END UPDATE

After a brush of light rain on Tuesday, mostly during the
morning, Southwest Virginia is likely to get a second wave of rain
on Wednesday. This will be a direct flow of moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico and temperatures will respond accordingly, pushing into
the 60s. A rumble of thunder wouldn't be totally out of the
question, especially in Southside.

Time for a weekend break from blogging. This has been pretty
much a constant run for 3 weeks through a really impressive stretch
of winter mayhem. I posted the snowfall total maps for our four
winter storms during that stretch at left, just to give you
something to look at (you can click on them to make them
bigger).

UPDATE 3:45: The heaviest band of precipitation is now
east of Roanoke, with a mix of snow and sleet continuing in the
Piedmont counties. Some light precipitation has re-developed to the
west, and there a couple of bands in West Virginia and Ohio to
watch this evening, but the bulk of the heaviest snow and sleet has
moved east of the Roanoke Valley and Blue Ridge. Any
additional accumulation will likely be minimal, a half-inch or
less. END UPDATE

UPDATE 4:40 PM, 3/2: A
winter weather advisory is up for Tuesday morning. It's a
similar setup to Sunday morning with some light moisture
overrunning wedged-in cold air. Most of Southwest Virginia
dry-slotted on Sunday morning -- no guarantee that will happen
again, but we are talking light amounts of sleet and freezing rain.
Sunshine and well-above freezing temperatures today may help keep
it from total ice coverage on streets if there is freezing rain,
but there would definitely be icy patches in shaded areas and on
many secondary roads. As noted below, temperatures will slowly warm
up into Tuesday evening and then get quite mild on Wednesday with
heavier rain. END UPDATE

UPDATE 3:40 PM, 3/1: Winter weather advisories have been
lifted for Southwest Virginia. There were icy problems in North
Carolina nd Southside Virginia earlier, and continuing in parts of
northern and eastern Virginia into the D.C. area, but most of
Southwest Virginia caught a big dry slot this time. END
UPDATE

UPDATE 8:15 AM, 2/26: Other than a few spits the snow
has ended in Southwest Virginia. Accumulations generally near
3-4-inches along U.S. 460 corridor from Blacksburg (officially 3.1)
through Roanoke (officially 3.2) to Bedford, with a bit more in
several locations farther south and east, and somewhat less in
spots to the north. A weak clipper system along with an Arctic
front renewing very cold air may bring in light snow to the region
tonight, but amounts will be minor. Anything that manages to melt
today with slightly above freezing temperatures will refreeze
tonight and may remain that way until temperatures finally get
above freezing again on Sunday. Saturday morning lows likely dip
into the single digits to low teens. Yes, we are going to carry
this snowpack -- now 11 days old at Roanoke and 13 days at
Blacksburg, the longest stretches with snow on the ground since the
epic 2009-10 winter -- into March, but there may be some decently
mild days (50s highs) early to mid next week. ... I will
issue new Inclement Conditions Index this evening. END
UPDATE

UPDATE 7 AM, 2/25: All of the localities previously in
the winter storm watch have been upgraded to a warning south of
Roanoke with a winter weather advisory added for most of the rest
of the Roanoke and New River valleys tonight and Thursday. Full new
blog post coming in the next hour. END UPDATE

Beware of “black ice” on this Monday – or even plain
old-fashioned white snowpacked-ice, depending on how plowed/melted
off the specific road your driving on is. Also, don’t be surprised
to see snowflakes in the air, maybe even a dusting at some spots
west of Roanoke, though I don’t think this is going to be akin to
the whiteout snow squalls we’ve had with the last three Arctic cold
fronts.

UPDATE 8 AM, 2/22: The ice/snow threat has ended for the
region with fewer than 2,000 customers without power in Appalachian
Power's Virginia service area despite a night of freezing rain.
This storm has left a significant impact, though, with a
snow slide (some are calling it an avalanche) having buried U.S.
220 between Iron Gate and Clifton Forge near the
Botetourt-Alleghany county line and reports of roof collapses and
flooding problems in the far southwest tip of the state.
Though temperatures will go well above freezing today -- maybe even
mid 40s to near 50 if the sun can stay out a while -- unplowed
roads in hard-hit areas will improve only slowly, as there is a lot
of snow and ice and melting will just turn it into a big slushy
mess. Even with 40s highs, most of the area isn't going to see
the entire snowpack melt off today, and what doesn't melt will
refreeze hard with subfreezing weather returning Monday and perhaps
single-digit lows by Tuesday. END UPDATE

UPDATE 4:35 PM, 2/21: Moisture has continually streamed
through a region north and northwest of Roanoke during the
afternoon, and will likely continue into the evening. Snowfall
amounts of 8-12 inches are already common in this area and will
grow yet more inches into the early evening. Father south, periods
of snow are along the U.S. 460 corridor in the Roanoke and New
River valleys, where 4 to 8 inches is common. Sleet and freezing
rain have occurred at times along the I-81 corridor to the
southwest, while there has been a pretty long dry period south
along the Blue Ridge to the North Carolina line. Milder air has
struggled mightily against the Arctic air today, but has made some
advance and will continue to stream in during the evening. Many
higher elevations west and southwest Roanoke are several degrees
warmer than the city itself and other lower elevations, still in
the 20s in the dense cold-air wedge. As the milder air oozes in,
sleet and freezing rain will become more prevalent, and maybe even
plain rain at any locations that warm above freezing. Fog may also
develop where milder air moves over snow cover. It's a
long, drawn-out overrunning moisture winter storm. END
UPDATE

You will be waking up to a record cold February 20 in the
Roanoke and New River valleys. Temperatures were already at record
levels when it passed midnight into the new day. If it drops below
zero at Roanoke, it would be the Star City's first official
negative temperature reading in 19 years, and if it drops to -2, it
would be the coldest February temperature on record, dating back to
1912. Blacksburg was already a degree below zero as the day began.
The box at left contains information on the status of cold-weather
records during this Arctic surge.

UPDATE 6:25 PM: Snow showers and squalls will continue
into the evening, though there will be some decrease in intensity
and areal coverage as the setting sun removes a source of
instability. Still, with some atmospheric lift resulting from a
upper-level impulse and the typical lifting of the moisture over
the mountains by northwest winds, there may be a few brief periods
of heavy snow in some locations -- especially west of Roanoke --
during the evening. Temperatures will plunge into the single digits
for Thursday morning and won't recover much on Thursday
afternoon, likely staying below 10 in much of the New River Valley
and maybe making the mid teens in the Roanoke Valley. END
UPDATE

UPDATE NOON, 2/17: Above is a map put out by the
National Weather Service office in Blacksburg on Monday's
snowfall. If your particular location got more or less snow than
the color shade would indicate, just remember these maps are
usually smoothed out for the preponderance of reports in a given
area, so may not represent every specific point within. If you prefer snowfall reports in list form, here
is a link to that.

UPDATE 4 p.m.: A
winter storm warning is now out for all of Southwest Virginia.
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is forecasting 7 to 11
inches throughout the Roanoke and New River valleys. Forecast
guidance throughout the afternoon continues to show considerable
convergence on 6+ snowfall amounts throughout the region. ... I
will do a full new blog post late this evening. END
UPDATE

There is a big elephant in the room named "Possible Tuesday
Snowstorm" that could trample all over our discussion right
now. But there is also a large polar bear roaming around a lot
closer to us that is going to roar in our face Saturday night. So
we'll deal with him first.

The first of two shots of Arctic air arrives Thursday
with blustery winds and some snow showers. Temperatures
will drop most of the day through the 30s and 20s. A wind
advisory has been posted along and west of the Blue Ridge --
including the Roanoke and New River valleys -- for potential winds
gusts topping 50 mph, especially Thursday afternoon and
evening. There may be enough snow showers -- caused by moisture
lifted up and over the mountains on those stiff northwest winds --
for some streaks of white ground primarily west of Roanoke, with
perhaps a couple inches on the ridgetops and west-facing slopes
near the West Virginia state line and west of Interstate 77.
You may see some flakes blowing through the air in the Roanoke
Valley at times. Widespread lows in the single digits and teens
will occur Friday and Saturday mornings -- and some may dip to near
or below zero west of Roanoke, with single digits to near 10
elsewhere, by Sunday and Monday morning. The Inclement
Conditions Index is below -- after a bit of looking back to a year
ago on this day.

Sunday's high temperature soared into record territory at
Blacksburg, with the high of 63 topping the 61 recorded on Feb. 8
in 2009. Roanoke didn't set a record, which stands at 73 from
1925, but the high of 69 was 21 degrees above normal. We're
likely done with record and near-record highs after Monday's
cold front, but will still have some fairly mild weather at midweek
before Arctic air comes roaring back in for the weekend.

If you see Jim Cantore somewhere in Blacksburg today or Friday,
rest easy, all weather mayhem isn't about to break loose ...
(and, sorry, Southwest Virginia snow lovers, it doesn't mean
your 2014-15 snow drought is about to be interrupted by
thundersnow). Cantore along with Weather Channel severe weather expert Greg Forbes are scheduled
to appear in a series of short live segments on The Weather Channel
between 7 and 10 a.m. on Friday focusing on a visual presentation
of the May 20, 2013, Moore, Oklahoma, tornado in the
"CUBE" at the Institute for Creativity, Arts &
Technology at Virginia Tech.

Quite a winter storm is covering a good amount of real estate in
states to our north, with amounts topping one foot in the Chicago
area and 8+ inches having fallen or expected in a swath from Iowa
to northern Pennsylvania and New York state into New England.
(You can follow the latest snow totals here. )
A few days ago some forecast models projected this swath
of snow as far south as North Carolina, and then the track lifted
northward with time, so much so that Pittsburgh and New York City
ended up in the mix zone south of the heaviest snow.

A day or two ago I mentioned that a low-pressure track along or
south of Interstate 40, which runs through the middle of North
Carolina from Asheville to Greensboro to Raleigh, is about where we
start thinking about a west-to-east-moving storm system having a
track favorable for significant snow in our area -- and
Georgia to South Carolina would be more optimum. The map above
shows the Weather Prediction Center's projected track of the
weekend low from Sunday morning through Monday evening, and as you
can see, it is a long way north of Interstate 40. In fact, it's
quite a bit north of Interstate 64, and darn near north of the
state of Virginia. Each of the little colored shapes near the
L's marking the low's forecast position are various model
projections for the low's position -- and as you can see none
of those purple diamonds are south of Charlottesville for the
low's position on Monday morning. (By the way, the curly track
off the Northeast coast toward Nova Scotia sort of looks like a
continuation of this low, but it's actually a low that's
off the New England shore now.) This kind of track will simply not
produce significant snow in our region unless there were an
extremely hard-banked cold-air damming setup, which there is not.
This will be a widespread, large but not overwhelming snow
event (many 6-12-inch amounts, locally more, but not widespread
12+) from the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
New York City might get as much snow from this as it got from the
blizzard that mostly missed east, and Boston will likely get
another near-double-digit snow on top of the piles remaining from
the blizzard.

This has not been a snow lovers' winter so far in Southwest
Virginia, with a warm December after a promising start in November,
then a January that has often been cold but without storm systems
of sufficient strength and track to deliver anything more than
light mixed events and snow showers (enough, at least, to whiten
the ground in some areas west of Roanoke this morning). February is
not going to start any better for snow lovers ... or any worse for
snow haters.

Let's get one thing straight right off the bat:
Tuesday's blizzard was NOT a bust. It was a record-setting
event at some locations that largely lived up to forecasts in
Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island, parts of Connecticut and New
York's Long Island. Peruse these snow totals if you don't believe me.
But, for New York City, especially Manhattan where all the cameras
are, snowfall came in under official forecasts substantially, only
in the 6-12-inch range instead of 2-3 feet. This was simply because
the storm shifted east about 50 miles, a possibility picked up
early on by the upgraded Global Forecast System (GFS) model and
generally trended toward by other models like the North American
Model (NAM) and the European. Extremely heavy snow bands hit the
Hamptons but didn't quite make it into the metropolis. There
are various analyses online about how and why there was only a
paltry 10 inches at Central Park instead of the promised 20+, such
as these by Capital Weather Gang, Gawker and Slate. All I will add is that it just
underscores the approach I will continue to use on Weather Journal:
To not only outline what is expected but the parameters of what
might occur with only small changes in various factors related to a
storm, and to give a general idea of what is more certain and what
is less certain with a given weather setup.

The blizzard is ongoing for New England on this
Tuesday morning. The storm's track shifted east from some
earlier forecasts, and that has resulted in a much less imposing
winter storm for New York City -- you'll probably hear a little
bit about that today in the media/social media. Regardless,
it's still a very big deal farther east and north of the Big
Apple.

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' principal weather geek. He writes the Weather Journal column each Wednesday in The Roanoke Times and advises the newsroom on weather topics while also working on the copy desk. He helps lead Virginia Tech students on storm chases each May, has edited a book on hurricanes ("Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," by Rick Schwartz) and talks about weather each Friday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. on WVTF (FM-89.1).