Video 5:52
Rocky relationship pushes superpowers towards war

China and Japan's dispute over a few rocky, uninhabited islands in the Pacific Ocean has led to troubling military posturing, as a visit to the Japanese Strike Force shows.

Transcript

LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: Two rocky specks poking out of the Pacific are threatening to push Asia's two superpowers towards war. Known as the Diaoyu Islands in China and the Senkakus in Japan, the outcrops are surrounded by rich oil and gas reserves. But in recent months, the Japanese-controlled islands have been the scene of some troubling military posturing. The dispute has lit a fuse under long-boiling nationalism on both sides and some experts warn that conflict could erupt. The ABC's North Asia correspondent Mark Willacy was given exclusive access to the Japanese F-15 strike force patrolling the islands and he filed this report from Okinawa.

JAPANESE AIRFORCE PILOT (voiceover translation): I perform my mission with a strong sense of responsibility: to protect the sovereignty of Japan's air space.

MARK WILLACY: Lieutenant's Kuniasu's (phonetic spelling) main theatre of operations is in the East China Sea above five rocky islands, some just mere specks above the waterline.

Known in Japan as the Senkakus and in China as the Diaoyu Islands, the dispute over who controls them threatens the stability of the entire North Asian region.

JEFF KINGSTON, TEMPLE UNIVERSITY, TOKYO: There could be a serious miscalculation. Things could still get out of control. Once there's blood in the water, that's gonna make it very, very difficult to find a compromise.

UICHIRO NIWA, FORMER JAPANESE AMBASSADOR TO CHINA (voiceover translation): We don't have any way except dialogue between two countries. Otherwise, we have to go to war.

MARK WILLACY: The Okinawa-based White Eagle Squadron takes just a few minutes to respond to a scramble order and to reach the islands. Recently Japanese pilots took to the skies to intercept a Chinese surveillance plane, but soon found themselves being shadowed by Chinese fighter jets.

YUTAKA MASUKO, COMMANDER, NAHA AIR BASE (voiceover translation): The number of scrambles here has been increasing every year, but we are careful not to escalate tensions when we are carrying out anti-intrusion measures.

MARK WILLACY: Not only have Chinese and Japanese fighter jets been shadowing each other over these islands, but now Tokyo is weighing up whether or not to allow its pilots to fire warning shots, should Chinese jets intrude once again. That, some fear, could be the spark that ignites conflict.

The conflict is already raging in cyberspace. This animation posted on YouTube shows a massive Chinese armada bearing down on the islands, while above, Japanese planes are shot out of the skies. It finishes with the Chinese flag fluttering triumphantly over the main island.

So what's driving this dispute over some remote outcrops inhabited only by some very hardy feral goats?

JEFF KINGSTON: Clearly natural resources and speculation that there's huge fields of oil and gas in the waters around them. This is what I think is driving this spat.

TOSHIO TAMOGAMI, FORMER JAPANESE AIRFORCE CHIEF (voiceover translation): Japan should take a tougher stance. Our Defence Forces are not given the freedom to defend Japan's territory. China knows this and acts accordingly.

MARK WILLACY: Toshio Tamogami is a former head of the Japanese Air Force who was shepherded into retirement five years ago after writing that his country was not the aggressor during World War II. A pin-up of Japan's ultranationalists, the retired general warns that China should not underestimate its smaller neighbour.

TOSHIO TAMOGAMI (voiceover translation): China cannot defeat Japan in a war. If they believe they could win, they're stupid. In terms of performance, our naval power is superior. The Chinese know that.

MARK WILLACY: Asia's superpowers aren't just facing off in the air. This month, a Chinese frigate sailing near the islands locked its weapons-targeting radar on a Japanese destroyer and helicopter, putting it just seconds away from launching a missile.

JEFF KINGSTON: I think that the sabre-rattling, the probing of the Senkaku islands, this is China flexing its muscles. Both sides have plausible legal claims. The issue is, legally, who has the stronger claim?

MARK WILLACY: Uichiro Niwa knows more than anyone just what's at stake here. He was Japan's ambassador to China when this dispute flared back into life in 2010. He wants both sides to take a step back, warning that the alternative could be unthinkable.

UICHIRO NIWA (voiceover translation): We have only one solution: to talk with each other, to have a dialogue with each other. Otherwise, we have to fight. That's might be a war.

MARK WILLACY: Every day the pilots of White Eagle Squadron take to the air, for training, for patrols or to intercept approaching Chinese planes. To them, these clumps of rock in the East China Sea are the frontline.

JAPANESE AIRFORCE PILOT (voiceover translation): Flying isn't a hobby for me. Our training and missions are tough. I always take to the skies with the intent of not being defeated.