ARCHIVED ADVISORY - All advisories expire after 24 hours from the posting date/time.

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Good morning backcountry travelers this is Carl Skustad with the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center on Wednesday, December 23 at 7 am. This will serve as a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area (advisory does not apply to highways, railroads, or operating ski areas).

ANNOUNCEMENTSPlacer River Drainage is currently open to snowmachining. With all this rain we will be watching the snowpack. Placer may need to close if the snowpack gets to skinny. Twentymile remains closed.

WEATHER ROUNDUPIn the last 24 hours, 4 inches of new snow fell in Turnagain Pass and 0 inches fell in Summit Lake. The winds have chilled out slightly but continue to gust into the mid 40's on ridgetops. Two days ago we saw winds gusting in the 60's out of the east. Total 48 hour snow fall in Turnagain Pass is approximately 9 inches, Summit Lake 3, and Girdwood 5-6 inches. These amounts are above the snowline. The snowline is approximately 0 to 500 ft. For the most part rain fell at sealevel the last few days, it looks like a trace of precip turned to snow in the Girdwood Valley last night.

AnCNFAIC Staff low pressure system in moving into the area today. A 987mb low will move onshore this morning. The radar and satellite are packed with colorful precip. The NWS is forecasting up to 5 inches of snow for higher elevations. Most likely Turnagain Pass. This is a short lived precipitation event and should be spent by late afternoon.

-The Center Ridge Wx Station at 1800 feet/Turnagain Pass-recorded 4 inches of new snow and 0.4 inches of water in the last 24 hours. The current temp is 29F (1 degrees colder than yesterday) with a total snowpack depth of 60 inches.

-The Sunburst Wx Station at 3800 feet/Turnagain Pass-is showing 13 mph winds out of the ENE, with gust 23-38 mph. The current temperature is 23 deg F

-The Summit Lake Wx Station at 1200 feet-recorded 0 inches of new snow and 0.1 inches of water in the last 24 hours. The current temp is 29F (1 degree colder than yesterday) with a total snowpack depth of 30 inches.

-The Fresno Ridge Wx Station at 3400 feet/Summit Lake-recorded is showing 23 mph winds with gust of 21 -41 mph out of the SE.

.TODAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING SNOW AND RAIN IN THEAFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 5INCHES THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS. HIGHS IN THE 30S. NORTH AND EAST WIND10 TO 20 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20STO LOWER 30S. SOUTH TO EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOWACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE 30S. NORTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.EAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. .CHRISTMAS DAY...SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE 30S. EASTWIND 10 TO 25 MPH.

Observations form yesterday prove that the buried surface hoar and faceted snow 1-2 feet deep is still reactive. A skier on Eddies was able to trigger a small to medium sized avalanche yesterday approximately 12 inches deep. CNFAIC Staff professional observations indicate this instability is real and ranges from Seward to Girdwood. The surface slab of snow is 12-24 inches thick and resting on surface hoar and faceted snow formed the second week of Dec. This new, slab snow has gained energy from recent winds gusting to 70 mph. If you remember the buried surface hoar reached approximately 2000 ft. I have reason to believe it is actually higher in some locations. This is one of those times that the avalanche hazard is greater at low and mid elevations than above 3000 ft.

We have not seen the natural avalanche cycle peak on this weak layer yet. AnCNFAIC Staff inch of water or foot of snow may tip the balance. Remember the stress vs strength concept? Enough stress or load will trigger this weak layer. This may be the case this afternoon.

I will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning at 7am. If you get out in the backcountry give us a call at 754-2369 or send us your observations using the button at the top of this page

Show the Complete North American Avalanche Danger Scale

North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale

Avalanche danger is determined by the likelihood, size and distribution of avalanches.

Danger Level

Travel Advice

Likelihood of Avalanches

Avalanche Size and Distribution

5 Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human- triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

4 High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human- triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Riding status is not associated with avalanche danger. An area will be open to motorized use in accordance to the Forest Management Plan when snow coverage is adequate to protect underlying vegetation. Backcountry hazards including avalanche hazard are always present regardless of the open status of motorized use areas.

(Updated: Mar 20, 2019 )

AREA

STATUS

WEATHER AND RIDING CONDITIONS

Glacier District

Johnson Pass:

Open

Placer River:

Closed

Closed as of 3.20.19 due to lack of snow.

Skookum Drainage:

Closed

Placer access closed as of 3.20.19 due to lack of snow.

Turnagain Pass:

Open

Twentymile:

Closed

Closed as of 3.20.19 due to lack of snow.

Seward District

Carter Lake:

Open

Lost Lake Trail:

Open

Please stay on trail to avoid resource damage through forested areas.

Primrose Trail:

Open

Please stay on trail to avoid resource damage through forested areas.

Resurrection Pass Trail:

Closed

Closed for the 2018/19 season. Next season will be open to motorized use.

Chance of Avalanches

This graphic depicts how likely you are to trigger avalanches or encounter natural avalanches while traveling on avalanche prone slopes. Unlikely means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. The chance of triggering or observing avalanches increases as we move up the scale. Certain means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches should be expected.

Size of Avalanches

This graphic depicts the potential size and destructive force of expected avalanches. Small avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become large enough to bury, injure, or kill people, large enough to bury or destroy vehicles and break a few trees, and large enough to destroy railway cars, buildings, or a substantial amount of forest. Historic avalanches are massive events capable of destroying villages and gouging or altering the landscape.

Chance of Avalanches

This graphic depicts how likely you are to trigger avalanches or encounter natural avalanches while traveling on avalanche prone slopes. Unlikely means that few avalanches could be triggered in avalanche terrain and natural avalanches are not expected. The chance of triggering or observing avalanches increases as we move up the scale. Certain means that humans will be able to trigger avalanches on many slopes, and natural avalanches should be expected.

Size of Avalanches

This graphic depicts the potential size and destructive force of expected avalanches. Small avalanches are not large enough to bury humans and are relatively harmless unless they carry people over cliffs or through trees or rocks. Moving up the scale, avalanches become large enough to bury, injure, or kill people, large enough to bury or destroy vehicles and break a few trees, and large enough to destroy railway cars, buildings, or a substantial amount of forest. Historic avalanches are massive events capable of destroying villages and gouging or altering the landscape.

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
This advisory provided by the Chugach National Forest, in partnership with Friends of the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Information Center.