Saturday, April 25, 2015

Could Jean-Pierre Bemba walk free? What would the
consequences be for Congolese politics? The answers to these questions are
unpredictable, but could dramatically impact Kabila’s succession battle, which
is becoming increasingly tense.

Jean-Pierre Bemba was arrested in May 2008 under a warrant
from the International Criminal Court for crimes committed by his troops in the
Central African Republic in 2002. The trial has been percolating through the
ICC system now for over four years (it didn’t begin until November 2010), and
closing arguments took place in November of last year. Court watchers now expect
a verdict by June, although its been pushed back numerous times.

It is difficult to predict the verdict, but based on the
quality of the evidence that they have seen or heard of, some close to the
court feel that Bemba stands a good chance of being released. But even then,
there are several different scenarios: he could be found guilty and released
after time served––he has already been in jail for seven years––or be found
innocent. While in the mind of many in the west of the country, Bemba’s charges were trumped up
regardless, there are far-reaching implications of a guilty verdict. Congo’s constitution does not allow
individuals guilty of war crimes to run for office.

Even if Bemba is released, many questions would remain:

A second, far minor charge has been brought against him, his
lawyer, and other MLC members (Fidèle Babala, Aimé Kilolo, Jean-Jacques
Mangenda, and Narcisse Arido) for interfering with witnesses. That trial could
prolong Bemba’s dealings with the ICC, although all the other accused in that
case have seen set free pending trial.

Would Kabila allow Bemba to return? After all, Bemba had
already fled into a sort of exile in Portugal when he was arrested, following
deadly battles between his troops and the national army in downtown Kinshasa in
March 2007. Given Bemba’s popularity, Kabila might try to prevent his return.

How popular is Bemba? There has not been any national
polling in the Congo in recent years. In 2006, Bemba won 42% of the vote in the second round of polling, winning big in the center and the west of the country. Given the recent collapse of the
UDPS opposition party, the illness of its leader Etienne Tshisekedi, and the
lack of another leader who can galvanize national opinion, Bemba would stand a
good chance of scoring high in the polls again, even though his MLC party has
disintegrated over the years.

The provinces in which Bemba won a majority in the run-off election in 2006 (Courtesy: BBC)

Even if Bemba cannot run, he could throw his
weight behind another candidate. Sources close to Moise Katumbi, the governor
of Katanga, say that the two have been in touch. Katumbi, who is still in
Kabila’s coalition but has clearly expressed his presidential ambitions, is a
Swahili speaker from Katanga. Given that the country has been ruled by a
Katangan president for the past eighteen years, the support of a westerner like
Bemba could be a significant boost to Katumbi.