Thursday, August 4, 2016

Is Kurdistan Serious About Independence From Iraq?

Kurdistan’s President Massoud Barzani is talking about
independence once again. He said a referendum would be held by the end of the
year, but there is no consensus on the issue amongst the main Kurdish parties
nor the regional countries. Not only that, but the Kurdish Election Commission
has not been asked to hold any vote yet, and would require a law by the
Kurdistan parliament, which is adjourned indefinitely due to a political
dispute between the region’s ruling elites. Given those factors it doesn’t
appear any referendum will be held any time soon.

In February
2016 President Massoud Barzani issued a statement that every one has the right
to self-determination and that the time was right for a referendum on Kurdish
independence. He said
such a vote would happen before the end of the year. This gained a lot of
attention, but by the next month he was getting some push back already. A
member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) told
the press that one party alone could not lead Kurdistan towards independence,
and that it would need the help of neighboring countries. President Barzani’s
son Masrour Barzani claimed
that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) had consulted with Iran and Turkey
about independence, but a spokesman from the Iranian Foreign Minister stated
that Tehran stood for a unified Iraq. Ankara too is still an opponent of
Kurdistan breaking away. Finally the third major Kurdish party Gorran stated
that it believed
in a referendum, but didn’t think it was time due to its political dispute with
Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). No consensus thus exists on Kurdish
independence right now either internally or externally. The PUK and Gorran do
not want President Barzani dictating terms, and Iran and Turkey are still
against the idea.

Besides the political differences no formal steps have been
taken to initiate a referendum yet. In July, the
Kurdistan Independent High Election Commission let it be known that it could
hold a vote on independence in four months if all the parties agreed upon it,
but it hadn’t been asked to yet. Additionally,
the KRG’s parliament would have to convene and pass an election law to set up
the rules for any referendum. The regional parliament has not met since October
2015 when the KDP dismissed Speaker Yusuf Mohammed from Gorran and his party’s
four ministers over a dispute over Barzani’s presidency. That began when
Barzani’s term ended in August 2015, and the ruling parties could not agree on
how to extend his reign. The KDP also blamed Gorran for protests in the region,
which all culminated in the KDP unilaterally kicking Gorran out of the
government. Some don't think that the Kurdish parliament will meet again until
new elections are held next year.

Another factor undermining Barzani’s independence call is
the fact that he has made the same statements before and nothing came of them.
For example, in July 2014 he called for a referendum on independence. That
coincided with the Kurds seizing most of the disputed territories they wanted
to annex after the collapse of the Iraqi Security Forces with the fall of
Mosul. Barzani felt like the KRG was in a position of strength and made his
announcement. Then again in December 2015 Barzani said that he would talk with
the other ruling parties about independence. At that time Kurdistan was in the
middle of its political crisis between the KDP and Gorran, as well as facing
the collapse of oil prices that had sent the region’s economy into a tailspin. Like
the current situation, the Kurdish Election Commission was never asked to hold
an actual vote on the issue either of those times.

Kurdistan will eventually have its independence, but it will
not be done on the whim of President Barzani. He always acts unilaterally on
this issue, never consulting with the PUK or Gorran, which causes resentment
amongst those parties. Without their support there will be no consensus or real
moves towards independence. Even then the KRG would have to start extended
negotiations with Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara to work out political and economic
deals rather than just presenting independence as a fait accompli after a vote
because the region doesn't have a way to support itself without the help of
those capitals. That wont stop President Barzani from continuously pushing this
issue, but until substantive steps are taken it will simply remain political
rhetoric.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the politics, economics, security, culture and history of Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com