Giants 2007: Playoff-bound or are we going to suck?

I’d like to hear what other fans think of the upcoming season because the 2007 predictions for the National League West are trickling in – and if the media experts are to be believed, it doesn’t look good for the Orange and Black.

I’m an optimist by nature, so I feel we have as good a shot as anybody, but before I dive into that, let’s recap what the early predictions are. Who will win the NL West? The three baseball preview magazines that I found at my local bookstore’s magazine rack are predicting Dodger Blue all the way.

Two publications pick the Giants to finish second and third, respectively. The Sporting News predicts a fourth-place finish for our G-Men, right in front of the last-placed Colorado Rockies. In fact, the magazine ranks the Giants 13th out of the 16 NL teams, in front of the league’s three perennial losers: the Pirates, Rockies and the Nationals. But wait, it gets even worse.

FoxSports.com’s Dayn Perry is essentially predicting a last-placed finish for the Giants with this pot-shot comment in a column this week. First, he raves about the young Diamondbacks, then says this:

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The NL West is winnable, and if the Rockies gifted young performers step up, then they could make some noise. If nothing else, they should finish ahead of the overpriced Giants.

Ouch. But then again, the Giants did just finish half a game in front of Colorado last year. The thing is the so-called experts never pick the Giants to win. So that’s nothing new. I can see this team fighting for a playoff spot or it could be awful, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

Best case scenario: Everything comes together. Our promising pitching staff realizes its potential and dominates, while the veteran hitters provide decent to above average production, propelling us into the playoffs.

What I would like to say is that pitching and defense wins championships and I feel more confident in their pitching staff this year.

That means Barry Zito having a solid first year in the NL, and Matt Cain continuing to mature, and more importantly, showing consistency by mowing down NL hitters game after game. Matt Morris and Noah Lowry return to form and Russ Ortiz summons his 2002 greatness. Our talented, but largely young bullpen produces.

As for hitting, Dave Roberts and Omar Vizquel wreak havoc on the basepaths. Bonds, who is having a monster spring, continues to rake and stays healthy. Ray Durham repeats last season. Ditto for Rich Aurilia, who hit .300, 23 HRs and 70 RBIs while playing the bulk of his games as the Reds clean-up hitter last year.

As for the bottom of the order, Randy Winn hits better than last year’s .262. (His lifetime average is .284. Is that too much to ask for?) Then Pedro Feliz gives us his usual .250, 20 HRs and 80 to 90 RBIs, and Bengie Molina hits for average and gives us about 15 home runs. Even though the lineup has only one true bopper, it generates enough runs for us to win, thanks to our stellar pitching staff.

Chasing the Wild Card: The last four NL Wild Card teams made the playoffs with an average of 90 wins a year. Last year, the San Diego Padres, which won the division, and the Dodgers, which won the Wild Card, both won 88 games. Can the Giants realistically win that many games? On paper, we look like a .500 team or slightly above .500. But if everything clicks for the team, who knows? We could battle for the division. After the last two dismal seasons, I’d be happy with a competitive team that is in the running for the Wild Card during the final weeks of the season.

The Giants’ first nine games are against the Padres and the heavily favored Dodgers, so we will instantly know if we can compete this year.

What are your thoughts about the Giants chances? Should we feel more optimistic? Pessimistic? Feel free to rant or rave about this year’s team.

Wylie Wong

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I agree with both your best case and worst case scenarios. I really believe it could go either way. The only disagreement i have is with the knowing instantly whether we can compete. Older teams seem to take longer to get up some steam. If they’re floating at or above .500 at the all-star break, and are injury free, i could see them making a push, despite what happens in April. But again, that’s best case scenario in my book.

Joshua

I think we are going to be good this year, in addition to the veterans we have a good mix of young guys and vets,(cain, fransden,etc) who are hungry and want to win and I honestly believe this will be Barry’s last year I expect a super human performance from him. It may also be Sabean’s last year also, so I expect us to compete and beat down the damn blue boys. Go Giants!

bc

The answer is: suck. But in a weak-ish division, Giants fans will again think that being reasonably close means you’re “contending”.

Look at what’s wrong with this team: horrible closer, no production from 1B, mediocre starters, injury-prone and ancient outfielders. Am I leaving anything out?

Clean house. Start with Bonds, move on to Sabean, then to everyone over 35 (all 17 of them).

Wylie

Hapkidokid: Yes, good point. if I recall, Dusty’s playoff teams did just that. Got hot in the 2nd half.

Joshua: Good analysis. I hope you are right!

And BC: Tell it like it is! Well, since I wrote this, Sports Illustrated has predicted the Giants will sink to the bottom of the division. There’s not much respect for the Giants right now…. So I hope they surprise everyone.

shindigity

I think that there is further reason to be optimistic for the Giants chances this year. Wylie has touched on some good points why the giants maybe contenders or bottem dwellars this up coming year.

One thing that is not mentioned however, is the talented young pitching in the Giants organization. It seems as though Lincecum, the giants number 1 pick last year could be the real deal, featuring excellent stuff and a delivery thats extremely hard to pick up. Sanchez is another great arm who has already shown moxie and stuff in relief roles last year. Misch is also reported to have a good left arm and will get a shot in the bullpen sooner than later this year.

With that said, the Giants have intriguing options for the back of their rotation and bullpen should their incumbant players falter. I agree with Wylie that the older position players need to produce above average numbers for the Giants to succeed. The rotation, however, isn’t totally reliant on veterans Ortiz and Morris getting back on track. Should either of them or Lowry falter, look for Lincecum to replace the weak link sometime this season.

Unfortunately for the Giants, none of their blue chip pitching prospects over the last couple of decades have lived up to their billing for one reason or another. Hammaker, Remlinger, Torres, Estes, and Foppert never turned into dominant major league starters. The name that I haven’t mentioned of course is Cain, formerely a Giant’s blue chip prospect and the Giant’s number 2 starter. Cain has the potential to be a top flight major league starter. If he does make that jump into an allstar calliber player it will bode well for the giants this year and many years to come.

Wouldn’t it be something if both Cain and Lincecum could blossum into what they could be; and what if they did that this year. Of course I’m thinking optimistically. Far more young talented pitchers have washed out rather than have succeeded in the major leagues, but I think the Giants are due for one or hopefully two blue chip pitching prospects to finally pan out.

gsack

Im very optimistic bout the season. Just as long as the pieces fall in place and they also have to stay healthy. It sure looks like they will have to depend on pitching to keep them in games. With that said, we are not really sure what Zito will bring with him coming to the NL,if Morris can be consistant enough to be solid, Lowry hasnt had a good spring, if Otiz is the real deal again, and the fat question is the closer which Im not really sold on Benitez being the guy but again whoelse do we have. The bullpen has wholes that need to answered.

The offense will be there for the most part of the season and Bochy will make the right decisions managing that will benefit us on offense. Bonds, if healthy and he sure looks like it right now, will get the record in which he has sought for and will have an all star year. What concerns me is Durham, Aurilla, and Winn, what kind of year they will have. Let’s just hope they can hold up on their own, we will have to wait and see.

Another thing is the the Division is soo even that any of these teams can make a run. With that, it is going to be a fun season of baseball and the races will be exciting.

Bradley Emden

My worry ever since we have Raghetti as the pitching coach is that our pitchers walk too many batters, and throw way too many pitches per inning. Some of the teams used to make Schmidt throw as many pitches as they could early so he would fade later in the game. Teams that walk a lot of guys rarely ever end up with winning records, although I’m sure there are a few exceptions. If Bochy helps to emphasize challenging the hitters and not nibbling so we end up walking large numbers of batters, I think we should have a chance. I have never been happy with Rags.

The Giants have three major problems to overcome. First is the Bull pen, it is in terrible shape except for Benitez, second is Mat Morris, he has to produce but I am one who believes he has to have 6 runs per game in order to win, he won’t get it. Third, Lowrey, he has shown nothing this spring and I don’t know how he made the rotation. He will disappoint us, I had high hopes for him but he looks pathetic this season.

Scott

This bad team is made even worse because of the bad contracts that Brian Sabean and his cronies have burdened the Giants with for years to come.

Prediction: The Giants will finish dead last. However, they will be close enough come the time to print playoff tickets so the Giants can once again extort thousands of dollars from us season ticketholders that they will graciously hold for us all of the offseason as they have the past six years.

Scott

Correction: Three years soon to be four.

Bush League

It’s Sunday 10:00AM and the Giants have until noon to announce who is going to be cut. Great. A baseball team loaded with old players that will no doubt be purged in the off-season and the Giants are trying to decide which promising young player to cut loose…so they can sign with another team.

Which reminds me, when was the last time the Giant’s minor league system produced an outstanding position player? Matt Williams? Will Clark? Meanwhile other teams are loaded with good young talent.

Maybe we sent the wrong GM to the Dodgers.

AdamM

First of all, BC is clueless. The giants have a better rotation than the dodgers. The dodgers have better young talent, but Nomar can’t stay healthy and Kent is washed up. The giants will go 82-80 and miss the playoffs. The reason? Not the starters or bullpen or the manager. They just don’t have enough big bats in the lineup,unless feliz hits 40 homers and drives in 125 runs. I say let Linden, Fransden, Niekro start and see if they produce. If not got the route of the other teams and accumulate young talent. Bonds is Bonds. After this year the fans and management won’t have to kiss his butt. Starting pitching looks solid for awhile. Need to make a trade for Miguel Cabrera.