Thursday, June 11, 2009

Recruiting Success

Ever wonder just how worthwhile (or worthless) recruiting data are? Does having the #1 ranked recruiting class really predict how well a team will do?

To explore this fascinating issue (fascinating by virtue of the fact that no actual football is being played right now,) I looked at how the Rivals ranking of recruiting classes compared over a period of time (2002-2008.) Why did I choose that time span? Because that was the time span I could easily access the data for Rivals, which ranked all 119 Division 1A schools.

I then took each team's win loss record as a percentage, and ranked that.

Then I did a simple calculation, comparing the Rivals Rank to that of the Win Percentage Rank, by dividing the former by the latter. I originally dubbed this a rank ratio, but someone with higher math skills than mine suggested that a ratio is like 1:2 and that this is an "index." So be it. The Rank Index was born. A team that is ranked close to or at it's recruiting rank would have an index of 1 or close to it. The higher the number, the better a team/coach out performs it's recruiting rank. The lower the number, the more talent is being squandered, and/or the more a team's recruiting rank was over-rated.

Here are the results:

Team

Win-Loss %

PCT Rank

Rivals Rank

Rank Index

1

Boise State

87.90

2

76

38.00

2

TCU

76.55

8

64

8.00

3

Utah

73.98

11

59

5.36

4

West Virginia

75.37

9

40

4.44

5

Hawaii

65.69

22

85

3.86

6

Bowling Green

61.14

30

106

3.53

7

Navy

60.07

35

119

3.40

8

Boston College

71.51

14

43

3.07

9

Louisville

67.67

18

53

2.94

10

Texas Tech

68.98

15

41

2.73

11

Texas

85.62

3

8

2.67

12

Wisconsin

68.33

16

42

2.63

13

Virginia Tech

74.49

10

26

2.60

14

Ohio State

85.16

4

10

2.50

15

Northern Illinois

57.14

46

109

2.37

16

Iowa

66.94

19

44

2.32

17

Fresno State

60.22

34

77

2.26

18

South Florida

61.69

28

63

2.25

19

Air Force

52.26

59

116

1.97

20

Brigham Young

59.52

36

66

1.83

21

Oregon State

62.39

27

49

1.81

22

Connecticut

57.32

45

81

1.80

23

Toledo

54.79

50

90

1.80

24

Florida Atlantic

49.57

66

118

1.79

25

Cincinnati

57.63

42

74

1.76

26

Nevada

52.84

56

94

1.68

27

New Mexico

53.31

55

89

1.62

28

Central Michigan

48.48

69

110

1.59

29

Miami (OH)

50.84

64

100

1.56

30

Tulsa

54.85

49

72

1.47

31

Southern Miss

58.82

39

57

1.46

32

Ball State

45.59

78

107

1.37

33

Georgia Tech

58.82

38

52

1.37

34

Wake Forest

53.94

52

68

1.31

35

Houston

52.47

58

75

1.29

36

Troy

52.54

57

73

1.28

37

UTEP

40.29

86

110

1.28

38

Penn State

63.62

24

30

1.25

39

Colorado State

46.26

75

93

1.24

40

La-Monroe

34.42

98

113

1.15

41

Louisiana Tech

44.99

80

92

1.15

42

San Jose State

39.97

87

100

1.15

43

Ohio

38.62

89

102

1.15

44

Western Mich

45.74

77

87

1.13

45

Marshall

48.24

71

80

1.13

46

La-Lafayette

39.18

88

98

1.11

47

Rice

38.59

90

99

1.10

48

New Mexico St

31.13

105

115

1.10

49

North Texas

36.75

95

104

1.09

50

Missouri

60.81

32

34

1.06

51

Arkansas State

43.82

82

86

1.05

52

California

66.50

21

22

1.05

53

Wyoming

38.53

91

95

1.04

54

Akron

45.25

79

82

1.04

55

East Carolina

40.71

84

87

1.04

56

Florida Intl

26.80

112

114

1.02

57

Mid Tenn State

40.81

83

84

1.01

58

Tulane

35.74

97

97

1.00

59

USC

90.11

1

1

1.00

60

Army

19.70

118

117

0.99

61

Memphis

47.99

72

71

0.99

62

Buffalo

22.77

115

112

0.97

63

Clemson

61.27

29

28

0.97

64

Kent

32.79

100

96

0.96

65

Purdue

54.13

51

48

0.94

66

Idaho

20.45

116

108

0.93

67

Eastern Michigan

27.06

111

103

0.93

68

Utah State

23.70

113

104

0.92

69

Oregon

63.45

25

23

0.92

70

Pitt

57.68

41

36

0.88

71

Washington St

48.96

68

58

0.85

72

Minnesota

51.92

60

51

0.85

73

Northwestern

47.44

73

62

0.85

74

Kansas State

53.85

53

45

0.85

75

UAB

37.45

92

78

0.85

76

Auburn

71.61

13

11

0.85

77

Oklahoma

81.89

5

4

0.80

78

Temple

20.45

116

90

0.78

79

Rutgers

50.34

65

50

0.77

80

Kansas

51.62

62

47

0.76

81

Maryland

60.48

33

25

0.76

82

SMU

23.48

114

83

0.73

83

UNLV

29.00

110

79

0.72

84

Central Florida

40.42

85

60

0.71

85

Vanderbilt

32.26

101

70

0.69

86

Indiana

32.26

101

69

0.68

87

Kentucky

44.86

81

55

0.68

88

San Diego State

33.40

99

67

0.68

89

Virginia

57.63

43

29

0.67

90

Oklahoma State

57.48

44

27

0.61

91

Iowa State

36.90

93

54

0.58

92

Arizona State

57.80

40

23

0.58

93

LSU

77.98

7

4

0.57

94

NC State

50.96

63

36

0.57

95

Baylor

30.63

108

61

0.56

96

Duke

16.99

119

65

0.55

97

Michigan State

48.34

70

38

0.54

98

Syracuse

31.06

106

56

0.53

99

Nebraska

59.18

37

18

0.49

100

Tennessee

63.31

26

12

0.46

101

Them

66.58

20

9

0.45

102

Stanford

31.39

104

46

0.44

103

Alabama

60.96

31

13

0.42

104

Colorado

46.55

74

31

0.42

105

Miami (FL)

68.04

17

7

0.41

106

Arkansas

55.71

48

19

0.40

107

Washington

29.08

109

39

0.36

108

Arizona

36.82

94

32

0.34

109

Illinois

31.86

103

35

0.34

110

Georgia

80.35

6

2

0.33

111

Notre Dame

57.05

47

15

0.32

112

UCLA

53.48

54

17

0.31

113

Mississippi State

30.87

107

33

0.31

114

Mississippi

46.00

76

20

0.26

115

Florida State

64.95

23

6

0.26

116

Florida

73.05

12

3

0.25

117

Texas A&M

49.08

67

16

0.24

118

South Carolina

51.66

61

14

0.23

119

North Carolina

36.71

96

21

0.22

What exactly can we glean from these numbers?

USC and Tulane pretty much perform as expected for their recruiting classes. For Tulane, that's not necessarily a plus. About half the teams perform better, and half perform worse.

Someone criticized the data by concluding that since Georgia and Florida were so low on the list, the data was useless. Au contraire. Keep in mind that both those schools have consistently recruited well, according to Rivals. It is impossible for USC to out-perform it's recruiting class, and for each team ranked high, it becomes very difficult to live up to expectations. What these numbers suggest is that Florida and Georgia are not performing as well as they are recruiting. In the case of Florida, it is not a matter of wins and losses or National Championships--the data indicate that they should be winning, and perhaps winning more than they are.

It also sugests that schools like Boise State, Utah and TCU are doing more with their talent than other schools, in terms of producing wins. Schools like Florida State are under-performing.

As I expected, PSU did not perform overly well--38th overall and fourth in the Big Ten. Here's how the conference fared:

Big TEN

PCT

PCT Rank

Rivals

Index

12

Wisconsin

68.33

16

42

2.63

14

Ohio State

85.16

4

10

2.50

16

Iowa

66.94

19

44

2.32

38

Penn State

63.62

24

30

1.25

65

Purdue

54.13

51

48

0.94

72

Minnesota

51.92

60

51

0.85

73

Northwestern

47.44

73

62

0.85

86

Indiana

32.26

101

69

0.68

97

Michigan State

48.34

70

38

0.54

101

Them

66.58

20

9

0.45

109

Illinois

31.86

103

35

0.34

Another way to look at these numbers would be to examine just the numerical difference between a schools Rivals Rank versus its win-loss pct. rank (subtraction versus division.) In this case, teams with highly ranked recruiting classes aren't penalized as much for not producing winning seasons. Here's what that table looks like:

Team

Win-Loss %

PCT Rank

Rivals Rank

Rank Index

Difference

1

Navy

60.07

35

119

3.40

84

2

Bowling Green

61.14

30

106

3.53

76

3

Boise State

87.90

2

76

38.00

74

4

Hawaii

65.69

22

85

3.86

63

5

Northern Illinois

57.14

46

109

2.37

63

6

Air Force

52.26

59

116

1.97

57

7

TCU

76.55

8

64

8.00

56

8

Florida Atlantic

49.57

66

118

1.79

52

9

Utah

73.98

11

59

5.36

48

10

Fresno State

60.22

34

77

2.26

43

11

Central Michigan

48.48

69

110

1.59

41

12

Toledo

54.79

50

90

1.80

40

13

Nevada

52.84

56

94

1.68

38

14

Connecticut

57.32

45

81

1.80

36

15

Miami (OH)

50.84

64

100

1.56

36

16

Louisville

67.67

18

53

2.94

35

17

South Florida

61.69

28

63

2.25

35

18

New Mexico

53.31

55

89

1.62

34

19

Cincinnati

57.63

42

74

1.76

32

20

West Virginia

75.37

9

40

4.44

31

21

Brigham Young

59.52

36

66

1.83

30

22

Ball State

45.59

78

107

1.37

29

23

Boston College

71.51

14

43

3.07

29

24

Texas Tech

68.98

15

41

2.73

26

25

Wisconsin

68.33

16

42

2.63

26

26

Iowa

66.94

19

44

2.32

25

27

UTEP

40.29

86

110

1.28

24

28

Tulsa

54.85

49

72

1.47

23

29

Oregon State

62.39

27

49

1.81

22

30

Colorado State

46.26

75

93

1.24

18

31

Southern Miss

58.82

39

57

1.46

18

32

Houston

52.47

58

75

1.29

17

33

Troy

52.54

57

73

1.28

16

34

Virginia Tech

74.49

10

26

2.60

16

35

Wake Forest

53.94

52

68

1.31

16

36

La-Monroe

34.42

98

113

1.15

15

37

Georgia Tech

58.82

38

52

1.37

14

38

Ohio

38.62

89

102

1.15

13

39

San Jose State

39.97

87

100

1.15

13

40

Louisiana Tech

44.99

80

92

1.15

12

41

La-Lafayette

39.18

88

98

1.11

10

42

New Mexico St

31.13

105

115

1.10

10

43

Western Mich

45.74

77

87

1.13

10

44

Marshall

48.24

71

80

1.13

9

45

North Texas

36.75

95

104

1.09

9

46

Rice

38.59

90

99

1.10

9

47

Ohio State

85.16

4

10

2.50

6

48

Penn State

63.62

24

30

1.25

6

49

Texas

85.62

3

8

2.67

5

50

Arkansas State

43.82

82

86

1.05

4

51

Wyoming

38.53

91

95

1.04

4

52

Akron

45.25

79

82

1.04

3

53

East Carolina

40.71

84

87

1.04

3

54

Florida Intl

26.80

112

114

1.02

2

55

Missouri

60.81

32

34

1.06

2

56

California

66.50

21

22

1.05

1

57

Mid Tenn State

40.81

83

84

1.01

1

58

Tulane

35.74

97

97

1.00

0

59

USC

90.11

1

1

1.00

0

60

Army

19.70

118

117

0.99

-1

61

Clemson

61.27

29

28

0.97

-1

62

Memphis

47.99

72

71

0.99

-1

63

Oklahoma

81.89

5

4

0.80

-1

64

Auburn

71.61

13

11

0.85

-2

65

Oregon

63.45

25

23

0.92

-2

66

Buffalo

22.77

115

112

0.97

-3

67

LSU

77.98

7

4

0.57

-3

68

Purdue

54.13

51

48

0.94

-3

69

Georgia

80.35

6

2

0.33

-4

70

Kent

32.79

100

96

0.96

-4

71

Pitt

57.68

41

36

0.88

-5

72

Eastern Michigan

27.06

111

103

0.93

-8

73

Idaho

20.45

116

108

0.93

-8

74

Kansas State

53.85

53

45

0.85

-8

75

Maryland

60.48

33

25

0.76

-8

76

Florida

73.05

12

3

0.25

-9

77

Minnesota

51.92

60

51

0.85

-9

78

Utah State

23.70

113

104

0.92

-9

79

Miami (FL)

68.04

17

7

0.41

-10

80

Washington St

48.96

68

58

0.85

-10

81

Northwestern

47.44

73

62

0.85

-11

82

Them

66.58

20

9

0.45

-11

83

Tennessee

63.31

26

12

0.46

-14

84

UAB

37.45

92

78

0.85

-14

85

Virginia

57.63

43

29

0.67

-14

86

Kansas

51.62

62

47

0.76

-15

87

Rutgers

50.34

65

50

0.77

-15

88

Arizona State

57.80

40

23

0.58

-17

89

Florida State

64.95

23

6

0.26

-17

90

Oklahoma State

57.48

44

27

0.61

-17

91

Alabama

60.96

31

13

0.42

-18

92

Nebraska

59.18

37

18

0.49

-19

93

Central Florida

40.42

85

60

0.71

-25

94

Kentucky

44.86

81

55

0.68

-26

95

Temple

20.45

116

90

0.78

-26

96

NC State

50.96

63

36

0.57

-27

97

Arkansas

55.71

48

19

0.40

-29

98

SMU

23.48

114

83

0.73

-31

99

UNLV

29.00

110

79

0.72

-31

100

Vanderbilt

32.26

101

70

0.69

-31

101

Indiana

32.26

101

69

0.68

-32

102

Michigan State

48.34

70

38

0.54

-32

103

Notre Dame

57.05

47

15

0.32

-32

104

San Diego State

33.40

99

67

0.68

-32

105

UCLA

53.48

54

17

0.31

-37

106

Iowa State

36.90

93

54

0.58

-39

107

Colorado

46.55

74

31

0.42

-43

108

Baylor

30.63

108

61

0.56

-47

109

South Carolina

51.66

61

14

0.23

-47

110

Syracuse

31.06

106

56

0.53

-50

111

Texas A&M

49.08

67

16

0.24

-51

112

Duke

16.99

119

65

0.55

-54

113

Mississippi

46.00

76

20

0.26

-56

114

Stanford

31.39

104

46

0.44

-58

115

Arizona

36.82

94

32

0.34

-62

116

Illinois

31.86

103

35

0.34

-68

117

Washington

29.08

109

39

0.36

-70

118

Mississippi State

30.87

107

33

0.31

-74

119

North Carolina

36.71

96

21

0.22

-75

USC and Tulane are 0. Schools like Florida and Georgia move up. North Carolina still pretty much sucks. The Big Ten looks like this:

Team

Win-Loss %

PCT Rank

Rivals Rank

Rank Index

Difference

25

Wisconsin

68.33

16

42

2.63

26

26

Iowa

66.94

19

44

2.32

25

47

Ohio State

85.16

4

10

2.50

6

48

Penn State

63.62

24

30

1.25

6

68

Purdue

54.13

51

48

0.94

-3

77

Minnesota

51.92

60

51

0.85

-9

81

Northwestern

47.44

73

62

0.85

-11

82

Them

66.58

20

9

0.45

-11

101

Indiana

32.26

101

69

0.68

-32

102

Michigan State

48.34

70

38

0.54

-32

116

Illinois

31.86

103

35

0.34

-68

Eventually, I hope to re-analyze these data in terms of how a given recruiting class reflects a team's rank 2,3, or 4 years down the road.