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I fired up the Nichols stenography machine to work through Pierre Dorion’s season-ending media scrum and from it I picked my own highlights:
-I don’t think there’s any evidence that having a young player like Colin White sit in the pressbox for a playoff run has any impact on their future; it’s a bit like the belief that winning a championship leads to more winning–it’s a lovely sentiment, but it’s an article of faith rather than something you can actually demonstrate
-Dorion aggressively asserting that the team will protect Craig Anderson in the expansion draft is so ridiculous it boggles the mind–what other goaltender is there to protect? While the clock is ticking on the 36-year old, there’s not even a stable backup option to him right now (everyone has given up on Andrew Hammond, I don’t believe in FA Mike Condon or RFA Matt O’Connor, and neither Chris Driedger nor rookie Marcus Hogberg are anywhere near ready, so yes Pierre, water is wet! You’ll protect your only goaltender!) I fear that Nichols is prescient when he says:

Ideally, a player like a Marcus Hogberg can elevate his game and become a factor, but the Senators may have to look at the draft or outside the organization to address this position

The Sens have been incredibly impatient with goaltenders and are far more likely to make a trade for someone they feel is further along than wait for the normal development curve
-if Bryan Murray was still GM Chris Neil would be retained without question–Murray is immensely sentimental and attached to his veterans–it remains to be seen if that’s Dorion’s feeling as well (signing a broken down Chris Kelly in the off-season certainly signals he might be)
-there’s not much to say about Dorion blowing smoke up Max McCormick‘s behind, even though he’s already peaked as a player; Nick Paul, while improving last season, got a mention largely because the press knows who he is and no other forward prospect could possibly be considered; Dorion pumping Harpur‘s tires goes back to when he was drafted (he’s big!) and despite improving he needs more time in the AHL; Chabot…it’s hard to say if he can directly make the jump (although if you believe the hyperbole Dorion certainly thinks so)
-Nichols is exactly right that Dorion will try to maintain most of the roster, convinced that the run this year is confirmation that he’s making the right moves (as opposed to benefiting from fortunate circumstances)–the overhaul Nichols wants is unlikely to occur

I’d hate to see the Senators romanticize this playoff run and the results believing that their situation can replicate itself across subsequent seasons

I think this is exactly what the org will do–it’s certainly what Bryan Murray would–but I’ll hope to be wrong
-Dorion doesn’t appreciate the irony when he says:

As much as we could probably trade Chabot for a lot of good players, but probably the players that we could get for him, probably the impact wouldn’t be as good as some of the players that we already have here. Sometimes you always think the grass is greener on the other side, but sometimes people don’t respect what you have here

The Sens can’t wait to trade away promising prospects for veterans who they think will help them now. That lack of patience stretches all the way back into the Muckler regime and while sometimes they get away with it, in real terms it’s never truly paid off for them–zero Cup appearances in ten years and missing the playoffs four times.

Overall there was nothing surprising from Dorion. We can still hope for positive changes and some luck with the expansion draft, but it’s more than likely next season starts with a roster with the same handicaps as the current one.

I neglected to write about the Leafs signing Miro Aaltonen (in March, despite Tweeting about it), whom I identified in my list of potential European Free Agents. He was an Anaheim pick in 2013 (6-177), but either he or the Ducks weren’t interested in signing and Toronto signed him from Vityaz Podolsk (a teammate of former Sens prospect Alexander Nikulin, incidentally). Similarly, I Tweeted rather than wrote about Czech defenseman Jakub Jerabek getting picked up by the Montreal Canadians in May (he also had a strong season with Vityaz). Undersized by NHL standards (5’11), he’s been on my radar since 2015. Swedish defenseman Oscar Fantenberg (on my radar since 2012) was signed by LA after a solid season with HK Sochi (KHL). San Jose signed Czech defender Radim Simek (never ranked when draft-eligible); Arizona signed former Flyer draft pick (5-122/07) Mario Kempe (the Swede was playing in the KHL); Rangers signed KHL defenseman Alexei Bereglazov (I had him slatted as a late pick in 2012 on the strength of Corey Pronman and RLR, but at the time he had no interest in playing in North America and has since been unremarkable in the KHL).

The preference for blueliners is clear–the number of forwards signed is on par with what I’m used too, but this is a huge increase in defensemen. How much the top-performing EU blueliners (Karlsson, Hedman, Josi, Klingberg, etc) have to do with the trend I’m not sure–it might also be related to how many NCAA busts there have been–the push to sign college FA’s is nowhere near as strong as it was five years ago. Another change is how many players are being signed out of the KHL (formerly a difficult proposition): 8 of the 17 players come from that league (there’s also 5 from the SHL, 3 from the Czech league, and 1 from the Finnish Liiga).

This isn’t about SensChirp, but he serves as the Mount Rushmore of generic Sens sites. I stumbled across a Sens blog I’d never heard of, The System, which I assumed would be about prospects and the AHL, but scrolling through it’s a carbon copy of virtually every other Sens site (which might be why there haven’t been any posts since March, despite all the playoff excitement).

The miracle run is over for Ottawa and the team has everything to be proud of–a one-legged Erik Karlsson almost willed the roster into a Stanley Cup final. For some fans the double over time loss to Pittsburgh will bring back memories of 2003 when the Sens lost to New Jersey in seven (it’s the logical parallel–one win away from the Cup, losing 3-2 in both game sevens). That’s not the feeling for me however, as losing 14 years ago was much more frustrating since I had no doubt whichever team won would beat Anaheim in the final. Ottawa making the final this year would have been fantastic, but I had no expectation that they would beat a very deep and talented Nashville team (in terms of sentiment for me it was most similar to Ottawa’s seven game loss to Buffalo in 1997). The 2003 team was young and I knew there would be another opportunity for them to challenge for the Cup–that’s not the case with the current roster. Next year they will likely be on the bubble just like they have been since 2007 (Nichols outlines their good fortune in the post-season). There’s a ton of positivity in the blogosphere right now and that’s what winning does–the envelop of good feelings from the fanbase may last well into next season.

Pretty sure that’s a picture of Melnyk above. Anyway, as the eulogies come pouring in (there’s what, five other Sens blogs? We’ll call it a pour anyway), I can’t ignore the organisational issues that exist behind it. Pierre Dorion and his cronies aren’t likely to have learned much from this experience (except, perhaps, that Guy Boucher won’t always play crappy veterans when it matters), and Eugene Melnyk is still a crazy, cash-strapped owner who can’t keep his mouth shut. There’s even some reason to be concerned with Boucher himself, who enjoyed a very similar run with Tampa Bay in his initial season (2011) and then couldn’t get the Lightning back into the playoffs. Let’s briefly look at the various things this year that were significant on the critical side:
–Cody Ceci (do I need to say anything else at this point?)
-What was the point of signing Chris Kelly? He only (barely) played in two playoff games, both of which the Sens lost in double overtime
–Tom Pyatt, another head-scratching signing, got annihilated in the playoffs
-Was Derick Brassard really an upgrade over Mika Zibanejad? He disappeared in the playoffs after the Boston series (3 points in 13 games) and was outperformed by Mika in both the regular and post-season (PPG 0.48 vs 0.66 in the regular, 0.57 vs 0.75 in the playoffs)–I thought the trade sucked when it happened and nothing this year says otherwise
-Losing a year of Colin White‘s ELC in order for him to play 2 regular season games and a couple of shifts in one playoff game was remarkably stupid for a budget team
-Not knowing the call-up rule from the CHL and thus being unable to recall Thomas Chabot when they desperately wanted too is inexcusable for an executive like Dorion who has been in the league forever
-Acquisitions Viktor Stalberg, Alex Burrows, and Tommy Wingels collectively scored zero goals in the playoff run (when you’re outscored by Oleg Saprykin you’ve got problems)
-the cupboard down in Binghamton was very bare this year; dumping Luke Richardson and replacing him with Kurt Kleinendorst was a positive move, but let’s remember that it wasn’t Dorion’s choice for Richardson to move on, so it’s not like he figured out Luke was clueless

The cup isn’t always half-empty, as there are a lot of things I like on the roster, but it’s difficult to see this org actually improving upon those foundations. While there will be fans who point to all the gloom & doom for this season and then talk about results, but let’s not forget Colorado’s miracle season in 2013-14 as just one example of how a team can temporarily buck underlying numbers before regressing to the mean the next year.

The European free agent signings continue (it feels like a lot more have been signed this year, but I haven’t looked back at the numbers yet): Buffalo signed 24-year old Russian defenseman Viktor Antipin (an overage candidate back in 2013); Vancouver signed 25-year old Swedish defenseman Philip Holm (he was never ranked for the draft); while Columbus signed Latvian netminder Matiss Edmunds Kivlenieks with the 20-year old sailing through the last two drafts (no one had him ranked).

I mentioned Grant McCagg‘s new draft site back in March and his first draft preview product is available to order. Sadly, from my perspective, he’s only looking at the top 100 picks (with scouting reports on only the top 62), which isn’t much value even for such an inexpensive product (as I mentioned in my draft review last year, there’s general consensus on the top-90 or so players and scouting reports on the first two rounds are widely available through free media).

What a ride its been for the Senators, foisted on the backs of a one-legged Karlsson, the league’s new playoff format, and the modern version of the trap–it’s the wackiest Ottawa run ever. The fans who want to embrace the organisation as geniuses for getting the team this far need look no further than the man who won game six (Mike Hoffman) to have that balloon burst. It’s less than four years ago that Hoffman was put through waivers, and the former QMJHL MVP didn’t magically become a better player because of it (and yes, 29 other NHL teams were asleep at the switch). How much of this success is traced to scouting and how much through management moves? (I’ve put series scoring in brackets):Erik Karlsson (1-15/09) 18-2-14-16 3 PPP (6/7/3)
The Sens rarely draft undersized defensemen and he’s miles ahead of the many other first-rounders taken since (Jared Cowen, Mika Zibanejad, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, etc)Bobby Ryan (t-2013) 18-6-9-15 8 PPP (7/2/6)
A disappointment in all four regular seasons with Ottawa, his second Sens playoff is the first (and sadly, likely the last) time the move has paid dividendsMike Hoffman (5-130/09) 18-6-5-11 2 PPP (3/4/4)
A late pick on his second time through the draft (not good in the corners apparently); as mentioned above the org nearly gave up on him, but once he truly arrived in the NHL he’s been everything you could have asked for from a guy with great speed, hands, and shot; he’s a good example of the results of being patient with prospectsDerick Brassard (t-16) 18-4-7-11 4 PPP (8/1/2)
Much like Bobby Ryan the Sens gave up a younger, talented player to acquire the veteran; he showed up against Boston but has been largely invisible ever sinceJean-Gabriel Pageau (4-96/11) 18-8-1-9 (1/6/2)
A smaller, offensively talented player who forced his way onto the rosterKyle Turris (t-11) 18-4-5-9 3 PPP (2/4/3)
Acquired in the David Rundblad trade (who himself was acquired because the Sens didn’t want Vladimir Tarasenko, so let’s not get too excited over fleecing the Coyotes), this hasn’t been a great playoff for him, but there’s no doubt he represents one of Murray’s best tradesClarke MacArthur (FA 13) 18-3-6-9 4 PPP (2/4/3)
Given his concussion problems I think many of us wish he wasn’t playing, but when healthy he’s been as advertisedMark Stone (6-178/10) 18-4-3-7 (2/4/1)
Dropped like a stone in the draft due to injury (and his skating), the Sens scouts scored huge in picking him, albeit he’s had his struggles in this year’s playoffsZack Smith (3-79/08) 18-1-5-6 (1/4/1)
From what I read in blogs and in the paper he’s one of the best players in the league; picked by the team on his second trip through the draft he’s enjoying an improbable NHL career (given middling AHL numbers); he did get his second ever NHL playoff goal on the run, so that’s somethingDion Phaneuf (t-16) 18-1-4-5 (3/2/0)
Acquired from the Leafs and sentenced to a lifetime of watching Ceci attempt to play hockey; he’s been as underwhelming as advertised, but I suppose he has been as advertised; by some quirk all his points have come in just two gamesAlexandre Burrows (t-17) 15-0-5-5 1PPP (1/3/1)
The fifth player on this list acquired through surrendering a talented Swedish prospect, the senior citizen broke down during the run after accomplishing nothing memorableMarc Methot (t-12) 17-2-2-4 (0/2/2)
Acquired in the Nick Foligno trade and when healthy he’s been a great partner for KarlssonChris Wideman (4-100/09) 14-1-3-4 1 PPP (2/2/0)
Undersized defenseman worked his way from dominant AHL-blueliner to a useful NHL player, albeit one who has sat a few gamesFredrik Claesson (5-126/11) 13-0-3-3 (0/1/2)
One of the few Swedes to survive the org’s periodic purges, but who doesn’t love Freddy? While he occasionally struggled under Luke Richardson’s clueless regime in the AHL, he’s been solid in the NHL and on this runTom Pyatt (FA 16) 13-2-0-2 (0/1/1)
Signed out of the Swiss league for reasons unknown, he’s been awful when he’s played in the playoffsRyan Dzingel (7-204/11) 14-1-1-2 2 PPP (1/1/0)Nichols had his doubts, but while he hasn’t had a great playoff those intangible elements are there and the future is bright for the seventh-rounderBen Harpur (4-108/13) 9-0-2-2 (0/2/0)
I had and still have my doubts over the lumbering blueliner, but early in the playoffs he kept things simple before returning to his puck-bumbling formViktor Stalberg (t-17) 16-0-2-2 (2/0/0)
The former Lear was picked off the Carolina scrapheap for a 3rd-rounder; he’s not someone you expect to score, but the defensive-minded player probably shouldn’t be at the bottom of the plus/minus heap (whatever you think of that stat)–his TOI clearly shows Boucher isn’t that happy with himCody Ceci (1-15/12) 18-0-1-1 (0/1/0)
How was he ever a first-round pick? Watching him handle the pick is like a two-year old tossing a grenade, and his defensive play is worse! How Boucher can put up with him is beyond meTommy Wingels (t-17) 9-0-0-0
It’s amazing to me that anyone would trade for WingelsChris Neil (6-161/98), Chris Kelly (3-94/99), Mark Borowiecki (5-139/08)
Three guys who can’t play in the league (anymore in the case of the first too, or at all in the case of the third); in their collective five games played they accomplished nothing positiveColin White (1-21/15) 1-0-0-0
At this stage I have no idea why the Sens burned a year off his ELC–he played two regular season games and now has 2:39 of NHL playoff action under his belt–why? Play him or not, although given the alternatives I suppose him warming the bench isn’t the worst ideaCraig Anderson (t-11) 11-7 2.36 .922
Acquired to help the Sens tank in 2011 and failed to deliver, he’s been solid in the playoffs (his save percentage is the average for all playoff goaltenders), but particularly good against Pittsburgh (if you look through the numbers he’s had seven middling to bad games–2 vs Boston, 4 vs the Rangers, and 1 against the Penguins), although I think the folks at The Silver Seven are a little over the top praising him, granted that Travis Yost agrees

So after the long list what can we pull out of it? Fourteen drafted players (I included Kelly), ten acquired by trade, and two free agents. Naturally the whole lineup isn’t equally significant, so in terms of prime contributors (top nine scorers and the starting goaltender) it’s 5 drafted, 4 trades, and 1 free agent. It’s a bit of a Frankenstein collection, but frankly it all boils down to Erik Karlsson. Without him, none of the other pieces actually matter.

Incidentally, while doing research for this I stumbled across Nichols calling Jakob Silverberga bust last year–oops!

Generally speaking a hotstove, be it on TV or via bloggers, is only as good as it’s analysts. The Silver Seven‘s prior to game six included Callum going full Don Brennan:

Callum: More urgency and better protection in and around the crease will help immensely. But overall, just come to play in Game 6.

Words like “urgency” are things I hate in sports writing, because they imply players (for some inexplicable reason) stopped trying or didn’t care. That’s not Callum’s intent and he’s likely picked up the language from reading and listening to other sports columnists, but it’s useless verbage. Far better to pick something tangible and specific–defensive coverage and schemes (ie, crease protection) is what you want to stick with. Sadly, Callum doubles down:

Callum: yes, it’s about effort.

This is something Callum can’t know so it’s a useless observation. I don’t even think it’s what he means–he’s likely thinking about decision-making–players trying things that they shouldn’t or forcing plays–but he’s far better off using that kind of phrasing. Thankfully, everyone else who participated (Colin, Ary M, NKB, and Ross A) avoided that kind of hyperbole.

Speaking of Callum, his piece on the limited appeal of Ottawa’s run outside the area serves up as anecdotal proof of what I said in my last post about the inability of human interest stories to serve as meaningful fuel in sports. Specifically he notes:

You’d think that the overwhelming number of heartwarming storylines within this organization would win over national media outlets and gain some respect from fanbases outside of Toronto and Montreal.

Indeed, even winning isn’t always enough. The lack of excitement is partially due to Guy Boucher’s system, but it’s also related to the lack of a superstar outside of Erik Karlsson (and he’s someone only fully embraced by pundits this season).

Speaking of pointless, Nichols is still reading Bruce Garrioch. I gave up on local newspaper coverage a long time ago because it doesn’t provide anything useful. If I need official news about the org, I go to the org; if I need roster moves, I go to roster sites; if I want analysis I get that from analysts; etc. There’s nothing coming from someone like that of any value at all.

Actually, SenShot, but that site feels like SensChirp Light (Diet SensChirp?), and I have that logo handy, so we’ll stick with it. I don’t often check out the site, but I did look at Alexander O’Reilly‘s article leading into tonight’s game and this is what stood out to me:

The Penguins are the more skilled team but that doesn’t mean they’re the better team. The Senators are a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. This series is far from over but as of now the Sens are in the lead.

This is fantastic–this is HFBoards-worthy stuff–assertions piled on to predictions with no effort at justification whatsoever. Why isn’t being more skilled better? How are the Sens greater than the sum of their parts? Why are the Sens in the lead? Normally I encourage bloggers to avoid this kind of thing, but I want Alex to go further–be more vague–it’s more entertaining.

Two more EU FA’s were signed (not on my list). The first by San Jose, an organisation that has made such free agents it’s business, signing 5’9 Swedish forward Filip Sandberg (he was expected to be a late 2013 pick). Detroit then signed Czech defenseman Libor Sulak (#86 for CS back in 2012).

[Andrew posted after I did with a story so laden with sweetness it’s either genius or sickening, depending on your tastes.]

In a game where the Sens only showed up for about 30 minutes it’s amazing that they almost came back to tie it (the overall numbers are generous to them in my opinion). While Ottawa was able to pull off remarkable comebacks against both Boston and especially the Rangers, I don’t think they can afford going down more than a goal against Pittsburgh. Now that Marc-Andre Fleury is stapled to the bench, even with the Penguins limited defensecorps, it’s not the kind of team you can open the floodgates on (neither the Bruins or Rangers had counterpunchers like Pittsburgh). That said, the Sens confidence should be high as that was a winnable game and they can certainly play better.

Varada de-mothballed himself and wrote a long piece in response to this week’s Ross A article that echoes what I wrote back in January (thanks for reading boys!). He argues that part of the problem in Ottawa is that the traditional hockey narrative of rebuilding or competing doesn’t work here (because of ownership) and that this requires a new narrative framework for those writing about the team. He suggests that:

Ian Mendes does this all the time, covering the incredible story of Jonathan Pitre, or Kyle Turris’ involvement with the Capital City Condors

This is one way to go, although I think the appeal of human interests stories are limited within a sports context. Personally team performance and particularly team building are what’s interesting (I think the former is the predominant interest for most fans). To my mind a major reason for the dearth of blogging is the struggle many have in tackling the nuts & bolts of the numbers. Opinion pieces are what paid journalists supply in spades (as does every hockey forum in existence), so for bloggers to replicate that is simply redundant (Senschirp and The Silver Seven get away with it in part because they produce mountains of material–but why read Jeremy Milks talking about “good in the corners” when it’s what Don Brennan writes every column?). For fans to seek out a blog it needs to be providing something they can’t find elsewhere and I think that played a role in the fading away of much of the Sens blogosphere. Fortunately for bloggers, winning creates interest, so at least in the short term now is a good time to get back at it (ergo the resurrection of SenShot). The ebbs and flows of what’s popular are irrelevant to me–this is something I do for fun–if I want viewership I write about anything else (eg here, here, here, etc–all far more popular avenues than writing about the Senators).

It’s not surprising that Pierre Dorion was nominated for GM of the Year given where the team is in the playoffs. As Nichols points out the nomination isn’t remotely meaningful in terms of actually assessing him (it’s about as relevant as Paul MacLean winning coach of the year in 2013). I am bemused by the fans upset with Nichols about his very mild critique.

Another EU FA was taken off my list as Nashville signed 6’5 Swedish forward Victor Ejdsell, who had a monster season in the Allsvenskan for BIK Karlskoga. Not from my list, the Leafs signed a couple of Swedish defensemen (23-year old Calle Rosen and 21-year old Andreas Borgman)–the latter was fairly highly ranked by CS in 2013 (#36).

I’m not a fan of hearing the anthem at sporting events, aside from international ones like the Olympics. Putting aside the history of why it happens (we can thank America), it always struck me as bizarre–my team isn’t representing Canada (other than in the convoluted sense that it’s the only Canadian based team left in the playoffs), the team certainly isn’t comprised only of Canadians, and both anthems don’t cover all who are involved. There’s nothing inherently patriotic about watching an NHL hockey game–it neither values or devalues what our nation (or any other nation) is about. The league does not represent a state–it’s simply a corporation doing what businesses do. Despite all of this the topic of removing it rarely comes up and is never popular. Julian Garcia was one of a couple of people who raised it last year (granting his article isn’t a particularly engaging piece), but it’s generally a dead letter. Having the anthem played is such a part of the sporting tradition fans don’t want it to change, so I’m not expecting it to go away any time soon.

The Sens earned their 2-1 overtime win last night, riding the coattails of Erik Karlsson and a strong performance from Craig Anderson. What I don’t see is the team surviving four powerplays in the first again; speaking of the man advantage, I’m not a fan of Alex Burrows on the powerplay. Other positives: Chris Neil in the pressbox (where he belongs); the end of the Ben Harpur experiment (I take him over Mark Borowiecki, but that’s not saying much). There wasn’t a lot of the silly chippiness the Penguins are known for (a couple of dangerous hits, but very little of the after whistle nonsense). Fans should soak in the win–I’m not sure how long this ride will last, so best enjoy it while it does.

It has been a long time since I talked about hockey broadcasts (five years in fact)–the painful noise that generally pollutes viewing an NHL hockey game. It’s sad to note that the lineup hasn’t really changed since then, other than Glenn Healy is off my TV. Briefly, here’s what we have (split by play-by-play and colour, best-to-worst):PBPGord Miller – good; can add insight and excitement to the broadcastChris Cuthbert – good; a touch less insightful than Miller, but it’s closeMike Emrick – generic; defines averagePaul Romanuk – generic, but a little less of a dinosaur than HughsonJim Hughson – boring; hasn’t evolved at all since he broke in with TSN (yes, I’m old enough to remember)Bob Cole – I can’t believe he still broadcasts; I’ve never heard a man sound more bored than during the Pittsburgh-Washington series; plays favourites, doesn’t understand the game, etc, etcColourRay Ferraro – the best colour guy (NBC saddling him with Olczyk is painful)Garry Galley – good; has actual insightGreg Millen – generic, but solid–neither adds nor subtracts from my enjoymentEd Olczyk – not good; hasn’t evolvedPierre McGuire – awful; you’d think he’d be at the bottom of the list given the hyperbole and self-aggrandizement, but he’s still actually better than the two that followCraig Simpson – terrible; out of touch and plays favouritesLouie DeBrusk – terrible; out of date and out of touch

The sad thing is, the people making decisions don’t actually know who is or isn’t good. Grey Wyshysnki says that NBC likes Mike Milbury, which is a sign of lunacy. The folks at Sportsnet also keep trotting out neanderthals like Don Cherry. Is it ignorance? Or do they think these are the kind of personalities hockey fans want? Elliotte Friedman (among others) have defended some of the inanity (I’m not sure he really has a choice)–Dave Shoalts is drinking the Koolaid (for Shoalts never forget and of course his opinion on analytics). Generally speaking the primary broadcasts are not something I look forward too–Hughson and Simpson? Awful. Emrick and Olczyk? Bland at best. Is there relief in sight? Absolutely not. Low ratings have led to retrenchment.

I also saw it [complacency] in the blogging world. The usually vibrant world of Sens news was quiet this year.

He goes on to note the state of various blogs and how the playoffs have breathed a tiny bit of life into WTYKY (which is really just Luke P writing more). Another thing I’ve noticed is a decrease in The Silver Seven citing other bloggers, although that seems to boil down to who is writing the piece.

Back when Kurt Kleinendorst was brought back to coach the AHL team I didn’t mention that he signed a two-year deal; I wasn’t sure if Binghamton’s season would put that in jeopardy or not (I thought he did well with what he had, but I don’t make decisions for the org), but a Tweet from the Belleville Sens seems to indicate he’ll be around to finish out that contract (something that makes sense for the cash-strapped Sens anyway).

I was not surprised Barry Trotz was unable to get the Washington Capitals into the third round, as he’s been unable to get any roster beyond that point [not pictured above: Trotz, but Torts is a wonderful poster boy for incomprehension]. It is amazing to so how far a good roster can carry a clueless coach (Randy Carlyle), but that roster needs to be truly superlative to overcome the inadequacies in charge of them. I looked at the impact of coaching a year or so ago (something still poorly understood; my link in that piece to Nick Emptage’s article is broken, so one that works is above).

I haven’t talked about the NWHL in awhile (which differs from the CWHL in that its players are paid). The league has struggled with it’s second season, forcing its players to accept as massive 50% pay cut in order to remain solvent (bringing the $10,000 minimum salary down to a miserly $5,000). The change does not bode well for the future and I have to wonder if any paid women’s league can survive without the active support of the NHL (ala the WNBA, which took 13 years to turn a profit).

There’s a lot to celebrate in the Sens moving on to the third round of the playoffs. It hasn’t happened in 10 years, it’s been hard fought (both series’ could have gone the other way), and it’s been great watching an elite player like Erik Karlsson drag his team to unexpected heights. Last night as I was watching Cody Ceci fumble around and enjoying the sight of Chris Neil stapled to the bench, I couldn’t help but temper my enthusiasm with some thoughts about what this run might mean going forward.

Roger Neilson and the 1982 Vancouver Canucks are pictured above. For those who don’t know, the Canucks went on a miracle run to the Cup in ’82. What was refreshing then is that people understood it was miraculous–maybe not quite as miraculous as it truly was (the franchise wouldn’t win another round until 10 years later), but there was an understanding that the run did not guarantee the Canucks would see something remotely similar for quite some time. This level of awareness seems lacking among fans, management, and owners. Fans feelings aren’t what’s relevant here, my concern is with the latter. There’s no reason to doubt that Pierre Dorion see’s this run as validation for his various moves and decisions; it also serves as additional fuel for Eugene Melnyk to resist spending more on his team (McKeen‘s-own Craig Smith understands this as he RT’d my sentiments).

There are, of course, differences to what happened 35 years ago and now. The ’82 Canucks were enormously fortunate in who they faced (the Kings knocked off the Gretzky-era Oilers in the Miracle on Manchester; Chicago knocked out previous Cup finalists Minnesota in the first round, etc)–they didn’t play a team with an above .500 record until the finals. While the newly installed playoff system is the same as what Vancouver benefited from, the caliber of teams Ottawa has faced is better and the Senators are have a truly elite player in their lineup (you can argue between Richard Brodeur or Thomas Gradin for the Canucks, but none of those players hold a candle to Karlsson). The difference Karlsson makes cannot be overemphasized (eg), as neither Boston or New York had an answer for him. In many ways there is no answer for Karlsson, but he can’t play 60 minutes a night and the other 30 or so minutes he’s off are terrifying. Ottawa’s victories certainly feed into Alex Novet‘s theory about a strong link game (ie, the team with the best player wins), but as I said in my response to that piece I don’t think it’s enough to hang your hat on yet.

I’m not going to predict their next series until we know who they are playing and despite the preceding I’d love nothing better than a run to the Cup for Ottawa–you never know how much longer you’ll have to wait for another one.

[A bit of trivia, incidentally, in looking back at the Canucks run: Sens assistant coach Marc Crawford was on that team; Dallas GM Jim Nill was as well; director of hockey ops Colin Campbell played; Czech national coach (and Pittsburgh coach) Ivan Hlinka was an important player; disastrous Atlanta head coach Curt Fraser played; Gradin is now a long-time Vancouver scout (as is Lars Lindgren).]

The expansion Vegas Knights have finally pried KHL star Vadim Shipachyov (50-26-50-76) out of that league and into the NHL (I identified him way back in 2012). It’s probably two or three years late to get him at his peak (he’s 30 years old), but it’s a worthwhile risk for the franchise.

Grit–what is it good for? (You might also say toughness, good-in-the-corners, character–whatever you prefer–the same meaning is intended–intangibles related to physicality.) My long contention is that it’s irrelevant in this era and in a recent piece Stories By Numbers throws up his/her hands:

You go in, collect the data, and you find certain players are more gritty than others but the team already knows that. Now what? You don’t have access to grit scores for players on other teams. You know from existing research that grit is relatively stable and cannot easily be taught. I collect data on psychosocial dynamics for a living and I write reports on my findings as a key part of that process, and I have no idea what value a report on grit scores on a hockey team could possible have beyond satisfying personal interest

There’s a lot more information in the piece and I think it runs into problems by providing a definition for grit that no one would agree (GM’s really do mean a Steve Ottirritant when they discuss it). While creating a definition is the only way to squeeze something out of it, it’s going to create confusion when the definition created does not match what’s commonly associated with it (what the article really seems to be exploring is perseverance and dedication, which isn’t what anyone would argue against–it’s pretty hard to become a pro athlete without that in spades). The other issue I have is that only players with superlative talent can get away with a lack of dedication, and those players are so rare as to be statistically meaningless–this isn’t the 1970s when players could afford to be lazy–essentially every NHL player is in great shape and works hard on their game (they literally have no choice if they want to stay in the league).

Despite my disagreement the article is a fantastic and I highly recommend it.

Jessop and Weissbock found that 19 of the 30 NHL teams would have fared better using the simplistic algorithm [forwards from the CHL leagues based solely on points in their first draft-eligible season] than by their actual selections

If it’s purely random, then no methodology alters results. Granting that the general analysis is correct, we might conclude that NHL teams do a poor job understanding who the best scouts and GM’s are. We see evidence of that in redundant tendencies like the continued preference for size.

Stats Sports Consulting (cited above) posted an interesting piece on scouting back in February and reading it I feel like they could have used more data (although I wholeheartedly empathize with how difficult it is to get hold of). It’s well worth a read, coming to the conclusion I did years ago that scouting does have added predictive value, but that’s mitigated by the bias of particular teams.

In case Sens fans worry that they have the only organisation that still embraces “good in the corners” guys despite contrary evidence, have no fear: the New York Rangers support Ludditism just as wholeheartedly as the Senators as Travis Yost demonstrates:

So goes the story of most rugged ‘defensive defencemen’ as they accumulate mileage on the body – they can’t move the puck or skate well, so they end up spending just about every shift trying to survive in the defensive zone. The Rangers have curiously kept Girardi playing big rotation minutes despite the red flags. Perhaps the Rangers don’t see those flags. Perhaps they feel that despite those issues, he’s still one of the best six options the team has. Perhaps they think he complements Ryan McDonagh’s game, and vice versa.

Much like South Park‘s underpants Gnomes, old school NHL GM’s and coaches operate under the following formula: acquire toughness + ? = profit. Their hardheaded resistance to see things any other way continues to boggle the mind.

Ryan Lambert wrote a piece that makes some good general points about the Sens attendance (alas, he worships at the cult of Pronman for reasons that remain inexplicable–particularly when we recall Ryan’s comments from a couple of years ago):

you can safely say there’s plenty of evidence the team wants to do little more than than cynically point to the barest of successes and have local media say, “What else do you want from them?” while pocketing a few extra playoff games’ worth of gate and concessions revenues.

This is absolutely the case–the local media does give that message and Melnyk absolutely needs that gate money (it’s hard to believe that Yost’s work is already four years ago).

A couple of signings to note: Chicago signed 22-year old European FA David Kampf (52-15-16-31) out of the Czech league; he didn’t make my FA list (or my 2014 draft list), but he was once a reasonably touted prospect (as per Central Scouting). Also from the Czech league but not making my list is 23-year old Matej Machovksy (2.25 .925), whom Detroit signed (he sailed through the 2011 draft).

Travis Yost’s seemingly dead Tumblr account has a piece from this summer that I thought I’d mentioned, but apparently did not. In it he discusses the NHL’s terrible broadcasts. Here are the key points for me:

It seems as though every 5-10 minute segment is chock full of cliche after cliche after cliche. I can’t think of the last time I genuinely learned something from a national broadcast … I, obviously, would prefer to be educated than entertained. But if you can give me the latter, no doubt I’m sticking around. The problem is that hasn’t ever been delivered either. … there are frustrating examples of really talented, really smart people being placed in secondary or tertiary roles … The other truly grating things on hockey broadcasts … is when completely junk analysis is passed off.

There’s no doubt that all of this is true. I actually think Travis is being too kind–hockey broadcasts are worse now because fans understand just how dumb much of the “analysis” is. I’ve watched more of this year’s playoffs than I have in years and it’s mindnumbing how poor most of the colour work and analysis is. Most of the opinions offered on broadcasts are carbon copies of what was said thirty years ago–hockey has moved on, but the talking heads have not. This really boils down to who does the hiring and manages talent on TV, because you could easily have a top-notch broadcast.

I don’t generally write about NHL awards, but I know many people get excited about them. I noted that the Sens own Craig Anderson is a top contender for the Masterton Trophy as Alexander P breaks down the odds of who will win what.