A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.

September 25, 2006

HA HA HA HA HA HA HAOh, man, this is hilarious.The corrupt David Lereah just predicted the housing market has "hit bottom". Maybe for realtors (the six percenters), who are only interested in transaction volume and their commissions, and not pricing, but for the other 99% of people who only care about pricing, we're a looooooooooooooooooonnnnng way from bottom.The corrupt Lereah says this:

``We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here,'' Lereah said. ``The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom.''

NAR President Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Va., said sellers need to price to current market conditions if they want to sell within a reasonable amount of time. “In some areas home sellers are not making sufficient adjustments in their listing price, so their homes are staying on the market and contributing to the build up in inventory”

While a real economist says this:

``The housing bubble has burst and housing is in full retreat,'' said Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California. ``What was a sellers' market has become a buyers' market. The housing correction still has a long way to run.''

So who do you believe HP'ers? It goes without asking.HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

It did hit bottom.....the first one, and it crashed through it. It still has several more bottoms below it that it will keep crashing through. Just think of it as a meteor crashing through a high rise building from the top in a bugs bunny cartoon.

we have three houses next to us with open houses yesterday..no one not one person showed up..but thanks for the free balloons my kids loved them.

Median sales prices of existing homes fell from year-ago levels in August for the first time in 11 years and just the sixth time in the past 38 years, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.Sales of existing homes fell 0.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million, the industry group said.Sales have fallen five months in a row and in nine of the past 12 months. Sales are down 12.6% in the past year. It's the lowest sales pace since January 2004.

Now, as I have posted in various responses on this board over the weekend, let us remember the process by which the FBs became "proud owners" of upside-down McMansions:

1. FBs, having all the self-control of five-year olds left alone in a candy store, want a McMansion, and THEY WANT IT NOW!!!

2. Those same FBs are illiterate---both literally and financially. They will sign anything put under their chubby little snouts.

3. The Snidely Whiplashes (the mortgage originators and banks) are all to willing to help the FBs bury themselves in debt, as long as the Snidleys get THEIR fees.

3. Wall Street has their grubbly little fingers in the pie, as they take the TRILLIONS in debt, dice it, slice it, and sell it off in chucks to money market funds, pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and Asian central Banks.

4. Not content with just that scam, the banks ALSO buy back the very loans they created and sold into the MBS market.

5. "Ground Zero" for the MBS scam has been Fannie/Freddie. However, they have been spanked recently for all the skulduggery in which they have been engaging and have had to back off a little bit and watch their cousins in the private MBS step in and create ANOTHER TRLLION DOLLARS of MBS over the last few years.

6. EVERYBODY involved in this scam is trying to lay off risk by selling each other/buying from each other credit default swaps, interest rate swaps, CDS of CDS, and other forms of OTC, poorly-documented, unregulated bogus transactions.

Also, as I have posted previously this weekend, the ENTIRE WORLD FINANCIAL SYSTEM is inexoribly (or is the term "horribly"!) interwoven and based on the above-articulated scam.

So, as FBs default, MBS-holders don't get paid. Then the MBS-holders aren't gonna wanna buy no more MBS. Which will KILL the whole Ponzi scheme.

Yeah, yeah, the Fed will try and step in and buy Fannies/Freddies (the dreaded "monetization"), but with over THREE TRILLION dollars of total MBS floating around there, even the Fed would be overwhelmed by the hyperinflationary conflagration that this would create.

Oh, by the way, imagine how the real estate market will look when an ADDITIONAL FIVE MILLION homes are dumped into the inventory (over and above the THREE MILLION or so now for sale) over the next 24-months.

Look for "RTC II The Sequel" whereby Congress, in a pathetic repeat of the early-90's fiasco attempts to create an "orderly market" to liquidate the now approximately TEN MILLION McMansion Sh*tboxes sitting, rotting in exurbia.

And, once again, I remind all you who think "Well, I'm special and different!!! I'll just wait 'til prices collapse, then buy houses for pennies on the dollar with all the cash I have been saving".

Ha. Ha. Think again.

First, go back to my statement above as to WHO holds all the MBS. Now, go study fractional reserve lending. Then make the connection that the money that you think you have ain't there.

Then, think about the FOUR-HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS of derivatives imploding (kinda like Amaranth did this last week and Refco did last year), and how that might rip through the financial system like a neutron bomb, leaving the buildings standing but the occupants fried.

Next, think about what the government response to the collapsing monetary system might be (for a hint, just Google "Argentina Banking Crisis 2001" for your answer.)

Finally, think of what your own state of mind will be as the collapse gets worse and worse. Show of hands here: How many of you were buying Cisco at $9 in 2002?

So, let us all enjoy our bried moments of Schadenfreude before we are ALL engulfed in the flames of this largest bubble in the history of mankind.

The corrupt David Lereah (chief economist of the National Ass. of Realtors) says this: "We've been anticipating a price correction and now it's here... The price drop has stopped the bleeding for housing sales. We think the housing market has now hit bottom."

How can an economist make such an absurd statement?

Webster's dictionary defines "correction" as: A bringing into conformity with a standard. The "standard" is that real estate appreciates at the rate of inflation plus 1%.

Now that the first round of 5% to 20% corrections of are behind us, those previously priced out of the real estate market can once again qualify for toxic loans and climb aboard the sinking ship. And this dead cat bounce is supposed to stop the bleeding?

Expect prices to drop to 2000 levels at some point (yes, better than 50% drop in most places). Although I expect prices to settle above that price point afterward, as is the case with most corrections, there is initially an over-correction. When you see prices hovering around their 2000 price levels, that (IMHO) will be the time to "buy low". Of course, don't ignore fundamentals such as whether rents will cover PITI as prices may need to correct even further in some areas. Hit a bottom my A$$. The next couple of years are going to be a great time to save for a purchase. Vacation and 2nd homes should go first as FB's do anthing to hold on to their primary residence. I'm personally shooting for some nice lake front property. CA$H is absolutely going to be king.

David Lereah, the Realtors’ chief economist, said the drop in prices had been expected, indicating that sellers are finally starting to lower their asking prices in the face of weaker sales and soaring inventories.

The inventory of unsold homes rose 1.5 percent to an all-time high of 3.92 million units. At the August sales pace, it would take 7.5 months to sell the backlog of unsold homes, representing the longest period since April 1993.

Lereah predicted that prices would likely keep declining for the rest of the year.

“We do expect an adjustment in home prices to last several months as we work through a buildup in the inventory,” he said. “With sales stabilizing, we should go back to positive price growth early next year.”

I have a bold prediction. The sky WON'T fall this winter. I keep waiting for this crash and yes it will slow down but this "crash" won't play out as many predict. There is still too much credit out there and the economy is just mediocre enough to support the present situation. I'm on the side of you folks. I beleive the credit bubble and debt will do great harm eventually to the USA. However, usually things happen when no one suspects. -not the way that is logically predicted. Nevertheless, I still think the "bottomed" quote is laughable.

Oh baby-my mouth is salivating. Anybody out there see last weeks USA Today article about flippers losing money. What mosst folks are forgetting is that builders and flippers could care less about your neighborhood. They only care about making a profit. Flipperrs are in full panic mode and trust me the builders know we are in a full meltddown. Look at the builders confidence level it is as a multi year low. Well here it comes folks bend over and grab your ankles.

Oh baby-my mouth is salivating. Anybody out there see last weeks USA Today article about flippers losing money. What mosst folks are forgetting is that builders and flippers could care less about your neighborhood. They only care about making a profit. Flipperrs are in full panic mode and trust me the builders know we are in a full meltddown. Look at the builders confidence level it is as a multi year low. Well here it comes folks bend over and grab your ankles.

I'd guess there's a bunch of hedge funds failing right now too with the commodities crash, they're selling everything they can to raise cash and cover bets

Gail MarksJarvis

Cooling growth putting heat on commodities

Published September 24, 2006

You'd be hard-pressed to find a "hot commodity" lately.

With the U.S. housing market giving investors a scare, China's building boom facing some restraint, Iran apparently less of an immediate threat to oil supplies, and hurricanes failing to howl, commodities have been slipping since early August.

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have fallen nearly 23 percent, to $60.55 a barrel, since reaching a record $78.40 July 14. Stockpiles are rising.

And hedge funds reportedly have been growing more cautious about commodity bets since Amaranth Advisors LLC, a Connecticut hedge fund, made national headlines last week after a bum move in natural gas cost the company billions of dollars.

these guys never learn that it isn't the original sin that cooks their goose, it is the subsequent cover-up to keep the fraud out of the light of day that does them in. these idiots are taking the rope that is being handed to them and making a noose as we type. soon, when the media starts replaying all their spoken and written crap, they will have put the proverbial noose on their collective necks and jumped from the gallows. prediction, Lereah will be seeking his paycheck from another employer in the near future.

What a fool! This guy is on a rocket to hell, and he's sitting there drinking a martini, and admiring the view. When this thing crashs and burns, he'll be consumed by the fire. This fool will be quoted just like all those other fools from the great depression, and it will be worse than the depression. Hold on and try to survive. Sell realestate now, even at these down prices, because it will be much lower in 6 years!

Regarding that link to the Fleck article. Realize that Fleck is Cramer on the other side of the argument. He's been bearish for 15 years which means he's actually been right twice, but so is a broken clock. Eventually real estate will fall and Fleck will do his usual "I told you so." He's a scumbag for sure and don't get sucked into that trap.

Butch,Do you think home values will fall to 2000's prices when the dust has cleared?I was listing to and making decisions based on Thornburg and figured a 'loss of value' or drop of 40% of the 'run up' over the last two years, and governed myself accordingly. Plus, I need a roof over my head and can't stand crazy flipper landlords.should I sell at todays prices and put my cash in a safe?Sounds extreme, but I wanted to suss things out a little more.Thought I was ready, but, am I?I am alone in the world and have a teenage son to think of. (:Thanks.

A "finanical guru" guest on Fox News just said that the latest NAR numbers include refinances. Can anyone confirm or deny this? I've been looking for evidence (or lack of evidence) to support this and can't find anything. If true, the numbers would be true manipulations of the truth.

Ha ha, Lareah is spinning these like crazy. He said 2 weeks ago that prices would fall and lo....they fall! amazing! of course he wouldn't have the data in front of him when he said that, would he? Now he just needs to talk about the market bottoming out until the recession hits and then he can lower numbers again for 2007 saying Who Knew about the recession?? no reason for a recession! please! Business as usual here in America folks!

David Lereah is a lying whore. Agreed. And sometimes I hate the guys scum-soaked guts when I hear him declaring the bottom of the slide when he could have no way of knowing whether that was true or not.

But he's just doing his job, isn't he? I mean, he's just a pitch-man for the NAR. You don't blame George Foreman or Ron Popeil for talking up their grills and rotisseries, right?

The problem is that the MSM doesn't issue the caveat "this message paid for by the NAR" whenever they quote Lereah, which they should. Those articles on bloomberg and reuters quoted lereah first, as though his word was not only objective but also more valuable than that of Joseph Stiglitz and Steven Wood. If you were an objective journalist and you were quoting multiple sources on a subject and one of them was a nobel prize winner, the other a hired mouth-piece, wouldn't you quote the nobel laureate first?

Is corporate whoring a class in journalism school or is that like a for-credit internship rotation?

InfidelWoman wrote:“Do you think home values will fall to 2000's prices when the dust has cleared?I was listening to and making decisions based on Thornburg and figured a 'loss of value' or drop of 40% of the 'run up' over the last two years, and governed myself accordingly. Plus, I need a roof over my head and can't stand crazy flipper landlords.should I sell at todays prices and put my cash in a safe?”I am alone in the world and have a teenage son to think of.__________________________

Before making the decision to sell the roof over your head, based upon what you hear on the radio & read on the Internet, be sure to consider all the angles.- What is important to you and your son - is it stability? How many times have you already moved in the past 5 years?

- What percent equity of your home do you own?

- Are you having trouble making payments on your home?

- Do you like your home; your neighborhood?

- Can you handle the aggravation & stress of putting your home on the market, and possibly having it sit there unsold for six months or more, while you nervously drop the price increment by increment?

Remember, the title of this blog is housingpanic. Be rational - don’t get sucked into the panic yourself!---About a month after I found this blog, I began seriously thinking about selling my rental house, which I moved out of in 2001. The house next door recently sold for $317,000. The rental house is about 2/3 paid off, and the rent plus $40 out of my own pocket covers the mortgage payment each month. The tenants are great; they take care of the place and I don’t jerk them around either.

After doing a bit of careful, rational thinking, I decided not to cave in to the panic and sell. $40 per month for the next 10 years will bring in at least $850/month (after taxes & insurance) after that. There were other reasons for not selling too, like not wanting to add stress to my personal life at this point in time, the thought of kicking the tenants out of the place they have called home for the past 5 years bothered my conscience, and what to do with the proceeds from the house sale, in this uncertain investment climate.---Our situations are different, but my point is that you have to sort out all the pros and cons - make a list if you need to - before you jump into the fray and act.

Good luck with whatever decision you make, because life is still a crap shoot!