Internal Dewhurst campaign claim: Leppert rising

5/11/12 4:44 PM EDT

In an internal Senate campaign strategy email, a top adviser to Texas Lt Gov. David Dewhurst argued that rival Ted Cruz, the state's former Solicitor General who's running an insurgent race, has been drawn out and forced "to spend money early," and insists former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert is "now well within the margin" and could finish in second place.

Referring to Leppert as "Mayor ACORN," Carney says in the email, sent internally in the campaign yesterday, that "I assume by today Leppert has close the margin and is now ahead of Ted. Leppert's TV ads and debate performances are clearly helping him. Expect the mayor to define and engage Cruz outside of dallas so he can bury Cruz and finish second. If the Leppert folks do begin to act like a campaign and gut Cruz in the press and in paid media then we will need to watch carefully how far Leppert grows. With Cruz flat-lined and the Mayor growing, (pollster Mike) Baselice tells me he is confident Leppert could thread the needle and pass Cruz as Staffer and his allies attack only us."

He adds, "As for the possible run-off. we should continue to execute as planned. we have lots of money being slung our way and only time will tell. I still predict it will be very close. Beyond full steam ahead with our positive message and the ground game which is second to none in the state. [W]e need to begin to take Leppert seriously and be prepare to remind voters across Texas about his leftist record. It is a target rich environment for us to operate we just don’t have that much time so we need to get ready and keep a close eye on his movement. Our ground game efforts should be skewed toward Tarrant, Johnson, Dallas, Rockwall and the other Tier 1 and 2 counties in the Metroplex -- we need to get our share there and we know that's where Leppert is focused."

Carney declined to comment on the contents of the email, writing back: "Leppert can do his own polling!"

The WSJ provides a snapshot of the primary today, showign that Leppert is still in single digits in available polling, and that Cruz is within 12 points of Dewhurst, whom he's painting as the establishment candidate and the one who's basically an "incumbent" in the open seat.

While it's not impossible, it's hard to see Leppert catching up in the remaining time before the primary, which falls in about three weeks. Carney's comments could theoretically tempt Leppert to play harder (and spend more money) but that could also be a bit of bait in the expected runoff. The fact that Leppert shaved about $34,000 off his ad buy today, according to a reliable source, also doesn't add to the sense of a candidate surging.

Instead, it conveys the impression that Dewhurst's camp is most concerned about Cruz making the runoff, creating a very different frame for a two-man race.

The race has, in the wake of Dick Lugar's defeat in Indiana, become another similarly-framed primary.