Tag: Colorado

Our podcast discussion was uplifting even in the middle of truly depressing news. We started with the great and shocking news of a Philadelphia special election wherein the Republican candidate kicked Democrat butt. Martina White beat at 2 to 1 Democrat voter advantage. Seriously.

How did she do it, and how do we copy those tactics for our own efforts at converting folks to conservatism?

She won by meeting voters face to face, getting to know them, making politics personal. That’s where you reach folks, that’s where you change the preconceived notions. She also changed the language. She spoke about government acting not as a controlling parent (the Democrat way), not as a remote stranger (GOP wants no government and will let you die in the street), but as a partner helping you to reach the success that you want and deserve. THAT is language we all need to adopt.

Then we had to discuss some GOP not-so-good news. With Colorado’s crazy man, and Indiana’s RFRA chaos. There are some fundamental issues, basic issues, that we are losing, why? How do we not do those wrong things?

So we talked about it. And maybe part of the solution lies in not spending so much time retweeting the bad arguments, linking to and commenting on and against the other side’s messaging – but in creating our own instead. Even if we don’t get out in front, we can put our messages out there, rather than just defend against theirs.

It comes back to letting our ideas win at the personal level. One on one, from you to your readers, your friends. Don’t talk freaky weird policy, talk about conservative living.

The 2014 midterm provides many possibilities, and many conundrums for conservatives. After squandering several ideal potential Senate race victories in 2012, most notably in Missouri and Indiana, Republicans face a relatively favorable landscape in this cycle. However, that by no means implies that taking the Senate majority will be an easy task.

Alaska: Mark Begich was lucky to win his seat 6 years ago. If not for a late prosecutorial action against former Senator Ted Stevens, Begich would never have won the seat in the first place. The best thing going for Begich is the competitive Republican primary, where Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell, 2010 nominee Joe Miller (a Tea Party candidate), and State Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan will all challenge each other in a heated primary. Miller ran a very poor race last time, and his strength this time is dubious. Treadwell is the candidate that is most likely to unite the GOP. The key point in this race will be Begich’s defense of his Obamacare vote, which will be a recurring meme in this piece.

Prediction: Slight Democrat lean, because of the GOP primary fight.

Arkansas: Mark Pryor is among the weakest incumbents, and has consistently trailed Republican Rep. Tom Cotton for months. Pryor is actively running away from Obamacare now, although advertisement money is pounding him on the issue.

Prediction: Republican lean.

Colorado: Mark Udall seems like he was on course for a smooth re-election campaign a year ago; that is no longer the case. A mix of Obamacare, along with resurgent gun rights movement in the state, have moved his seat into a tossup. 2010 Sen nominee Ken Buck, Ex-state House Majority Leader Amy Stephens, State Sen. Owen Hill, State Sen. Randy Baumgardner, Businessman Mark Aspiri, and Businessman Jaime McMillan all are considering primary challenges. Buck is the most well-known name, but he ran a poor campaign in his Senatorial loss last time. This is a primary that will be hotly contested by the GOP and the Tea Party.

Prediction: Democrat lean.

Georgia: With the retirement of Saxby Chambliss, and without a clear obvious successor, Democrats hope to steal this seat with Michelle Nunn, the daughter of long-time Democrat Senator Sam Nunn. Even with money and name recognition, that will be a hard slog. Ex-Sec. of State Karen Handel, Rep. Jack Kingston, Rep. Phil Gingrey, Rep. Paul Broun, Businessman David Perdue are just a few of the Republicans challenging for the seat.

Prediction: Republican lean.

Iowa: Iowa should be a much competitive race for Republicans this cycle, with the retirement of Tom Harkin. However, a primary race with no clear big name limits the GOP chances against Democrat Rep. Bruce Bailey.

Prediction: Democrat lean.

Kentucky:Mitch McConnell is the Wiley E. Coyote of Republican politics. Tea party hates him, he has been challenged multiple times, but he somehow always pulls through. That is the most likely result here against well-financed Democrat Sec. of State Allison Lundergran Grimes.

Prediction: Republican lean.

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu is in trouble. But we hear this during every re-election cycle and she still manages to pull through. Is Obamacare the albatross that finally weighs her down too much? A strong GOP field is led by Rep. Bill Cassidy, Ret. Air Force Col. Rob Maness, and State Rep. Paul Hollis.

Prediction: Tossup.

Michigan: This is a race that should be an easy lay-up for Democrats. Carl Levin has held this seat for decades, and Republicans have not been a significant factor in Senate or Presidential races here for decades. But former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land has won statewide races here before, and is well-financed, and Rep. Gary Peters, her Democrat opponent, is not exactly a household name.

Prediction: Tossup.

Montana: With Sen. Baucus’s retirement, this should be an easy pickup for Republicans. But considering 2012 where Republicans lost three seats that they should easily have picked up, nothing should be considered easy. This is a wide open primary race on both sides of the aisle.

Prediction: Republican lean.

North Carolina: Kay Hagan is in big trouble. She trails all of her GOP challengers, and these are not well-known Republicans running. She is running away from Obama and Obamacare as fast as her feet will take her, but it is not likely enough.

Prediction: Republican lean.

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen should be a cakewalk for re-election, but Obamacare is dragging down her favorables. With former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown ready to jump in the race, he will make it at least somewhat interesting.

Prediction: Democrat lean.

Virginia: Similar to New Hampshire above. Mark Warner should be walking easily to re-election, but well-known insider Ed Gillespie will be able to raise money and is high-profile enough to make the race interesting.

Prediction: Democrat lean.

This is just the earliest look at the Senate races. In the short run, what will be most important is the primary races, choosing the most competent conservative to challenge in the general election.

Early next week, I will have a primer on which primary races we should watch, and candidates to keep an eye on.