You're attempting to quantify something that cannot accurately be quantified. This game has an incredibly small population which will result in massive volatility/inconsistency in matchmaking which carries over in the top 250. There are a huge amount of factors that determine whether or not any one player is on the leaderboard. Are they duo'd? How good are they? How lucky are they in regards to matchmaking? Do they know their rotations well? What role do they play? What time do they play(you can get incredibly far just by queuing in off hours by farming the exact same people over and over)? Class is only one factor of many. And if you can't account for these factors - the data is unactionable period. This is data 101

Just because you run a better side spec doesn't translate to more wins when the any one match has massive differences in skill level. You can be up against a silver or a mAT winner while in plat. If you're matched with the former you can probably farm them regardless of what class you run. The latter will either destroy you even on a weaker class or simply outrotate you. Skill is still the largest deciding factor in who wins the game, not class.

You guys don't actually believe that the number of any one spec in the leaderboard is a good justification for balancing it right? Balance is a nightmare for every competitive esports game in existance - you think these companies haven't thought of this? Or do you actually think its as simple as 'just look at the leaderboards 4Head'

@FtoPScrub.5476, yes, simple win rates of classes would not tell much. For example, if Ben says "Reaper had one of the highest win-rates and play-rates in ranked last season", it can just mean that it is effective "noobkiller" that is very popular in low ranks.

I try to rephrase my earlier posting. I assume that ANet collects data from matches to design balance patches. If they don't, IMO then they should start. Now, what I would like to see, is to see this data shared to players. It is quite common practise in many competitive games. In this game, even that it would be interesting to see statistics of individual classes, I think that most of us would be more interested to see some data about team compositions and their effectiveness against other compositions. For example, we could have a top-20 list of compositions with highest win rates, and then a list how they perform against each other. Something like that. Something that could be used for you, as an individual player, to concentrate on right things and forget the weakest ones.

If ANet uses class win rates to design balance patches, then, IMO, that data could be published. It is far from perfect, because of many things mentioned also by you, but if it is the data ANet uses, wouldn't you like to see it? It is also probable that we can't have 100% accurate data from class / composition balance & performance. For example, we could think that in some compositions there are one or two key roles, and the majority of success is up to the player skills on those roles. We could see this kind of behaviour if we'd see some sort of mean deviation, if such could be calculated from match data. We could see that there are combos where individual player skill causes less deviation to the win rate, and so on. Maybe at best, we could see that there is no single "killer comp", but even if there is, it would not bother me much: then we would just start playing that.

TL;DR: It would be good if the data used to design balance patches would be shared to PvP players.

@FtoPScrub.5476 said:
You're attempting to quantify something that cannot accurately be quantified. This game has an incredibly small population which will result in massive volatility/inconsistency in matchmaking which carries over in the top 250. There are a huge amount of factors that determine whether or not any one player is on the leaderboard. Are they duo'd? How good are they? How lucky are they in regards to matchmaking? Do they know their rotations well? What role do they play? What time do they play(you can get incredibly far just by queuing in off hours by farming the exact same people over and over)? Class is only one factor of many. And if you can't account for these factors - the data is unactionable period. This is data 101

Just because you run a better side spec doesn't translate to more wins when the any one match has massive differences in skill level. You can be up against a silver or a mAT winner while in plat. If you're matched with the former you can probably farm them regardless of what class you run. The latter will either destroy you even on a weaker class or simply outrotate you. Skill is still the largest deciding factor in who wins the game, not class.

You guys don't actually believe that the number of any one spec in the leaderboard is a good justification for balancing it right? Balance is a nightmare for every competitive esports game in existance - you think these companies haven't thought of this? Or do you actually think its as simple as 'just look at the leaderboards 4Head'

Statistics always tell a story. More knowledge and information is always better than less knowledge and information. That is actual statistics 101.

It's not as simple as "look at the leaderboards." But knowing the leaderboard make up and class representation is important and absolutely can tell you valuable information about the state of the game. You think back during Heart of Thorns when Dragon Hunters made up 7 of the top 10 at the time that wasn't pointing towards something being out of control about Dragon Hunter? Or how back in February-May when 3-4 Disenchanter Chronos in platinum games were suddenly the norm that doesn't say anything about Chrono? Heck Anet is almost certainly more aware of shifts in the meta just by looking at usage statistics as they shift that the community at large is because it can take time for those shifts to ripple out and people to actually experience them.

Even something as simple as "How well was holosmith doing at the start of the season compared to after the Auto S nerf" would be good stats to know.

More information is always better. Always. Arguing for continued ignorance at large benefits literally no one.

Statistics always tell a story. More knowledge and information is always better than less knowledge and information. That is actual statistics 101.

They tell a story to the informed. To the uninformed it often times makes things worse. See "correlation between rise in vaccine use and rise in autism" nonsense that people peddle. I guarantee if these stats are released you'll have a ton of people arguing to balance changes based solely off these stats. You already have it happening with Mesmer mains claiming there is no possible way mesmer can be overpowered since you don't see many in the top 50.

You think back during Heart of Thorns when Dragon Hunters made up 7 of the top 10 at the time that wasn't pointing towards something being out of control about Dragon Hunter? Or how back in February-May when 3-4 Disenchanter Chronos in platinum games were suddenly the norm that doesn't say anything about Chrono? Heck Anet is almost certainly more aware of shifts in the meta just by looking at usage statistics as they shift that the community at large is because it can take time for those shifts to ripple out and people to actually experience them.

I'm not claiming that these stats aren't useful. I'm claiming that you can't make changes based solely off class representation in the leaderboards. Any internal stats are one tool of many, but the second this info is released to many players it'll be the only thing that matters. And also - 'broken clock'. For the times that the leaderboard is right in identifying what classes are broken, how many times is it wrong? Remember a good portion of people consider DH to be a pure noobstomper build. There was a reason it was a niche spec to run in tournaments amongst good teams.

More information is always better. Always. Arguing for continued ignorance at large benefits literally no one.

Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved. There are plenty of times where hiding information is beneficial - when the public is too kitten to interpret it as they should is one of the best examples. The only people who needs to be aware of this is the people in charge of balance.

Now personally I could care less if the information is released. In fact I'd want to see it to sate my own curiosity. But Arenanet isn't going to do themselves any favors by releasing it, especially if they want genuine feedback as to how people think classes are performing.

Statistics always tell a story. More knowledge and information is always better than less knowledge and information. That is actual statistics 101.

They tell a story to the informed. To the uninformed it often times makes things worse. See "correlation between rise in vaccine use and rise in autism" nonsense that people peddle. I guarantee if these stats are released you'll have a ton of people arguing to balance changes based solely off these stats. You already have it happening with Mesmer mains claiming there is no possible way mesmer can be overpowered since you don't see many in the top 50.

It's interesting. We have one thread in the sea of dozens asking for mes to be nerfed. A lot of those threads using hyperbolic and fictional statistics to make it seem as if mesmer was present and represented in abundance. People have, with the absence of statistical accuracy already asked for balancing changes based on subjective evidence.

You think back during Heart of Thorns when Dragon Hunters made up 7 of the top 10 at the time that wasn't pointing towards something being out of control about Dragon Hunter? Or how back in February-May when 3-4 Disenchanter Chronos in platinum games were suddenly the norm that doesn't say anything about Chrono? Heck Anet is almost certainly more aware of shifts in the meta just by looking at usage statistics as they shift that the community at large is because it can take time for those shifts to ripple out and people to actually experience them.

I'm not claiming that these stats aren't useful. I'm claiming that you can't make changes based solely off class representation in the leaderboards. Any internal stats are one tool of many, but the second this info is released to many players it'll be the only thing that matters. And also - 'broken clock'. For the times that the leaderboard is right in identifying what classes are broken, how many times is it wrong? Remember a good portion of people consider DH to be a pure noobstomper build. There was a reason it was a niche spec to run in tournaments amongst good teams.

I don't think the released pre nerfed DH was niche. As you could literally one shot most people for just walking near you. It was pretty powerful.
What's interesting is even when classes had niche builds, like the chill reaper, they were still nerfed in some way. I don't think leaderboard representation will ever change the random balancing Anet does.

More information is always better. Always. Arguing for continued ignorance at large benefits literally no one.

Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved.

People do this now. Using anecdotal evidence or straight up lies.
At least with more information we may be able to call out misinformation like this

Now personally I could care less if the information is released. In fact I'd want to see it to sate my own curiosity. But Arenanet isn't going to do themselves any favors by releasing it, especially if they want genuine feedback as to how people think classes are performing.

More information is always better. Always. Arguing for continued ignorance at large benefits literally no one.

Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved. There are plenty of times where hiding information is beneficial - when the public is too kitten to interpret it as they should is one of the best examples. The only people who needs to be aware of this is the people in charge of balance.

@FtoPScrub.5476 said:
Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved. There are plenty of times where hiding information is beneficial - when the public is too kitten to interpret it as they should is one of the best examples. The only people who needs to be aware of this is the people in charge of balance.

You aren't Tommy Lee Jones or Will Smith and this isn't the Men In Black movies.

@mortrialus.3062 said:
More information is always better. Always. Arguing for continued ignorance at large benefits literally no one.

Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved.

Lack of information invites people to draw conclusions based on subjectivity, emotion, and ignorance.

There are plenty of times where hiding information is beneficial - when the public is too kitten to interpret it as they should is one of the best examples. The only people who needs to be aware of this is the people in charge of balance.

Who gets to decide when the public is "too kitten" and how they "should" interpret information? There's a disturbing tone of authoritarianism to your view. The Chinese government wants its censorship and media manipulation back.

My 2 cents:
Thing is, the premise that this is competitive game is not quite right - this is a massive multiplayer game with competitive component added later in development.
You cant balance proffessions around small scale (5v5 or less) fighting without redesigning all PvE content - that's not gonna happen in 6yr old cash cow, from a bussiness perspective that would be a horrible investment.

Who gets to decide when the public is "too kitten" and how they "should" interpret information?

Arenanet, because they are a private, non-government entity who are not beholden to you and can decide to with hold information if they decide it'll be detrimental to them or make their jobs harder.

There's a disturbing tone of authoritarianism to your view. The Chinese government wants its censorship and media manipulation back.

Saying some information shouldn't be revealed to the public isn't an authoritarian view. Even the most progressive nations with hold information such as when revealing such information can infringe on your privacy. Don't take such a black and white view on the matter.

You aren't Tommy Lee Jones or Will Smith and this isn't the Men In Black movies.

You're the one who said more information and less ignorance at large is better. Don't act like I'm the one who brought this out of scope.

Thanks for actually making a decent argument. You have a point that people are already making these claims based on unsubstantiated metrics. I would argue that anecdotes are not necessarily bad when it comes to balance - it just depends on who it's coming from. I trust the judgement of someone like Angeels far more than win/played rate.

And I agree that more information would make people more informed. It's how they use that information that matters. Class bias is a real thing, and being informed does not necessarily mean the information will be used correctly. Additionally, these metrics will not have 100% accuracy. It will at times not correctly represent the actual state of balance but people will almost certainly believe it's undeniably accurate and will make judgements based off that. I could say, for example, that the lack of Chronos on the leaderboards means we should buff it - and technically I'm probably right when I say there is a lack of Chronos, but I don't think anyone wants Chrono cancer again.

There are other things to consider - for instance, people potentially not wanting to play support role skewing the played rate of Firebrand down. Do I trust Anet to understand that perhaps people just don't like to play support and the played rate is not indicative of how strong FB is? The key thing here is distinction. I don't think Anet balancing is anywhere near where it should be, but I trust them far more than the average player when it comes to making a distinction between what good, actionable data is and what isn't.

Thanks for actually making a decent argument. You have a point that people are already making these claims based on unsubstantiated metrics. I would argue that anecdotes are not necessarily bad when it comes to balance - it just depends on who it's coming from. I trust the judgement of someone like Angeels far more than win/played rate.

But there lies the problem. People with a bias using anecdotes also get a following of like minded bias people.
For example this threadhttps://en-forum.guildwars2.com/discussion/65067/breakdown-of-mesmer-defenses-and-why-its-absurd#latest
This person list multiple traits and abilities with hyperbolic explanations. Misinformation. And people not only agree. They think it's all true. I don't think that is good for balance and it's a slippery slope allowing anecdotal evidence at all ( from anyone) when making balancing decisions.
Especially because this dev team doesn't know which direction up is.
Everyone has an Agenda.

And I agree that more information would make people more informed. It's how they use that information that matters. Class bias is a real thing, and being informed does not necessarily mean the information will be used correctly.

True. But more information is better than none. As mentioned. Class bias is a thing now. At least with information people won't be crying for nerfs with 0% statiscal accuracy.

It will at times not correctly represent the actual state of balance but people will almost certainly believe it's undeniably accurate and will make judgements based off that.

People do this now anyway. In fact you linked a thread of a mesmer calling for buffs with no accurate information. They have threads of reapers saying their class is a worst state of balance it's ever been in.
People take no information, make up some, then make judgement calls based off of that made up information.
It's been happening for a while.
I would much rather see more objectivity from this small community than arguments and cry threads founded purely off of subjectivity.

I could say, for example, that the lack of Chronos on the leaderboards means we should buff it - and technically I'm probably right when I say there is a lack of Chronos, but I don't think anyone wants Chrono cancer again.

No. I don't think anyone wants chrono cancer lol. But fair point.

There are other things to consider - for instance, people potentially not wanting to play support role skewing the played rate of Firebrand down. Do I trust Anet to understand that perhaps people just don't like to play support and the played rate is not indicative of how strong FB is? The key thing here is distinction. I don't think Anet balancing is anywhere near where it should be, but I trust them far more than the average player when it comes to making a distinction between what good, actionable data is and what isn't.

I don't trust Anet at all because the balancing decisions they made have been really questionable.
For example. People didnt play scepter mesmer much before they over buffed it. Now it's one of the best in slot weapons. It's a condi weapon with one of the highest power coef. In the game. I'm afraid Anet may be looking at their own statistics and making horrible decisions all their own.

While I don't think any type of balancing decisions should ever be up to the player. ( I would go so far as to ignore this forum entirely because of the amount of bias alone)
I don't trust Anet right now because of the last year of pure miss balance patches and lack of forethought when making changes. That is in no small part the fault of the communities armchair driving.

For certain, unfortunately, they need to tune out the noise that is the Spvp subsection until people stop posting when they are in their feelings.
Then they need a new team of people that play the game competitively. That make decisions for spvp, instead of leaving it to the 5 people that play the game every other month.

@FtoPScrub.5476 said:
Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved. There are plenty of times where hiding information is beneficial - when the public is too kitten to interpret it as they should is one of the best examples. The only people who needs to be aware of this is the people in charge of balance.

>

Wow assuming the public is too stupid to understand information or could use it for their own agenda and so its best to keep it from them.
There are leaders of some of the more repressive regimes of the world that would love you!

@FtoPScrub.5476 said:
Untrue. Information released to the public often causes panic, invites people wanting to use it for agendas, or other nonsense when emotion is involved. There are plenty of times where hiding information is beneficial - when the public is too kitten to interpret it as they should is one of the best examples. The only people who needs to be aware of this is the people in charge of balance.

>

Wow assuming the public is too stupid to understand information or could use it for their own agenda and so its best to keep it from them.
There are leaders of some of the more repressive regimes of the world that would love you!

I mean, I kinda understand why he would think that.
We have people on the forums right now that believe blind is an invuln.

Hey are you back in office from the holidays? Can we pretty please get some of this information? A lot of players would love to see this information as it would be both fascinating and helpful and there's a very clear hunger for this information to the point where people are doing it themselves and I'm planning on doing the same next season.