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Chipotle Is Almost Out of the Woods

Written by: Antoine Gara04/22/13 - 11:17 AM EDT

Tickers in this article:
CMG SBUX YUM

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Chipotle Mexican Grill has recovered strongly from an October share price free-fall as it became hedge fund Greenlight Capital'snewest short position and, soon thereafter, significantly missed third-quarter earnings on slowing growth trends.

Since David Einhorn, head of Greenlight Capital, detailed why he was shorting Chipotle shares on October 2, the stock has risen about 15%, nearly double 8% gains made by the S&P 500 Index. Meanwhile, Chipotle shares are up over 55% since lows hit in late October, amid recovering earnings and maintenance of the company's earnings and growth guidance for 2013.

As Chipotle climbs back near all-time highs hit at this time last year, however, the company isn't entirely in the clear on investor concerns that weighed on shares in the final quarter of 2012.

The company's earnings-per-share growth is forecast to slow to single digits in the second quarter of 2013, according to consensus analyst estimates polled by Bloomberg. Chipotle's first-quarter earnings beat, meanwhile, showed quarterly revenue growth at the company slowed to just over 13%, the lowest figure since late 2009.

As profit and sales growth trails off on both a backward- and forward-looking basis, Chipotle's price-to-earnings ratio is on the rise. At Monday share prices of $369.67, Chipotle's 12-month trailing P/E stands at about 40 times earnings.

Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubline Capitalrecently indicated he will present a short trade in Chipotle shares at the upcoming Ira Sohn Conference. Einhorn will also be presenting at the conference, but the hedgie hasn't said what he will be speaking about.

"We think the stock is still overvalued relative to what we believe will be near-term below trendline growth," Andy Barish, a Jefferies analyst, wrote in reaction to Chipotle's better-than-expected first quarter earnings. Barish rates shares 'underperform' with a $265 price target.

While food costs in the quarter rose significantly and represented about 33% of revenue, Chipotle indicated rising commodity price-based expense has run its course. Unseasonably cold weather in many parts of the U.S., the so-called "fiscal cliff" and tax increases, meanwhile, didn't dampen consumer demand for Chipotle burritos.

Chipotle's first-quarter earnings signal the company has recaptured its story to the investor community, after a half-year of uncertainty.

For instance, instead of first-quarter earnings being colored by uncertainty surrounding food expense, margins and comparable store sales growth forecasts, the most notable recent announcement by the company may have been its introduction of Patron Tequila to margarita's made in the company's stores.

Such moves highlight how Chipotle may have easy levers to pull to drive in increasing revenue from its consistently growing number of stores.

While margaritas account for only about 1% of Chipotle's revenue, the company told BusinessWeek it expects a higher figure going forward given the appeal of Patron.

Better tasting tequilas may build excitement about Chipotle for the company's loyal customers, and it may underscore to investors that the Denver-based restaurant chain is a premium brand in some key demographics.

When outlining a short position in Chipotle shares, David Einhorn said a survey conducted by Greenlight Capital showed the company's customers were vulnerable to switching to Taco Bell, owned by Yum! Brands.

A recent brand score survey by Goldman Sachssupported some of Einhorn's assertions.