Taking a 1st-Round WR Isn't as Crazy as You Think
By Peter Schoenke
RotoWire Staff Writer

By now you know the basic strategies experts preach for fantasy football: Wait on quarterbacks, don't sit your stars ... and draft running backs early and often.

But changes in how NFL teams use running backs and a check of recent history show that taking running backs early and often isn't always optimal. In fact, taking a wide receiver early in your draft may be the best strategy despite the conventional wisdom.

Six years ago I did a comprehensive study to figure out how good the conventional wisdom was during fantasy football drafts. I used every expert ranking I could find from the 1990s to compare preseason rankings to actual performance. While the data confirmed many basic strategies, there was one stat that stuck out: Wide receivers are the safest first-round picks. After we launched Databasefootball.com, a historical stats site for football, I decided to revisit the topic. This time we got a more accurate gauge of preseason rankings by using the average draft position (ADP) data of thousands of leagues since 1998 from MyFantasyLeague.com that we've incorporated into the DatabaseFootball.com site.

Position

Draft Position

Avg. VBD

Bust Percentage

QB

Top 5

-36

50%

QB

Top 15

34

26%

QB

Top 25

35

25%

QB

Top 50

2

40%

QB

Top 75

1

39%

WR

Top 5

No WR taken in Top 5

WR

Top 15

75

0%

WR

Top 25

59

11%

WR

Top 50

32

26%

WR

Top 75

21

36%

RB

Top 5

137

7%

RB

Top 15

101

14%

RB

Top 25

94

14%

RB

Top 50

76

18%

RB

Top 75

63

23%

TE

Top 15

No TE taken in Top 5

TE

Top 50

58

8%

TE

Top 75

28

27%

Using the ADP data, we compared the consensus preseason rankings to the final year-end numbers to see if a player was worthy of his draft slot.

We used a typical fantasy league scoring system (4 points passing TD, 6 points rushing or receiving TD, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving and no points gained or lost for interceptions, turnovers or receptions) and then compared a player's fantasy points against the rest of the players at each position that season. In other words, we compared wide receivers in 2001 with other receivers from 2001, quarterbacks from 2004 with other quarterbacks from 2004. Thus, each player's value was calculated on the basis of what he offered compared to the other options at his position that season. (This comparison of players above the replacement level is also called value based draft value or VBD).

The historical numbers show why taking a wide receiver early in your draft may be the optimal strategy. First, taking a wide receiver helps minimize your risk. The conventional wisdom is to minimize risk in the early rounds and look for players with risk, but explosive potential, later in the draft. Although top receivers average fewer fantasy points above replacement than top running backs (26 percent less than RBs when taken in the top-15 overall picks), there are also fewer busts. Of the 18 wide receivers taken with an ADP in the top 15 since 1998, none has been a bust.

While wide receivers might be the safest picks early in the draft, running backs are still the fantasy powerhouses. They get the most touches in the offense with multiple ways to score points (in the air and on the ground). Running backs average more fantasy points than receivers at almost any point in the draft. So why would taking anyone other than a running back early make sense? For a 12-team league with a snake draft that starts two running backs and two wide receivers, a comparison of strategies shows taking a wide receiver makes sense for all but the top-six draft positions. Since the drop-off at wide receiver is faster in a draft, it makes more sense to take a wide receiver early and then running backs later. The early receivers hold their value while teams forced to take receivers in later rounds see a stronger decline in fantasy points than those who take running backs late.

I know what you're thinking ... that can't be true because Randy Moss and Terrell Owens were high picks in 2008, and they killed many fantasy teams. However, we define a bust as a player who didn't score more fantasy points than the worst potential starter (the top 24 wide receivers in a 12-team league that starts two wide receivers). In that scenario, Moss (10th) and Owens (9th) still were viable starters for their fantasy teams last season.

All 18 of those receivers taken in the top 15 since 1998 would have been worthy starters in a 12-team league with 24 starting receivers. Sure, some of them may have been disappointments compared to where they were drafted, but running backs fared worse. Over the same period, 14 percent of running backs with an ADP in the top 15 didn't score enough points to be worthy of the top 24 running backs. The difference was smaller as we moved out of the first round with 11 percent of receivers as busts in the top 25 picks compared to 14 percent of running backs in the top 25.

At face value, this makes some sense. Running backs and quarterbacks take harder hits, are involved in more plays and thus carry more injury risk. Quarterbacks, for example, have the highest attrition rate with 26 percent of those with an ADP in the top 15 turning into busts, and 39 percent of those with an ADP in the top 75 picks becoming busts.

Year

Player

ADP

Fantasy Points

Position Ranking

Overall Ranking

2001

Randy Moss

7.6

187

5

27

1999

Randy Moss

7.6

216

2

14

2008

Randy Moss

9.9

166

10

33

2000

Marvin Harrison

11.1

225

2

18

2002

Randy Moss

11.1

185

5

24

2002

Terrell Owens

11.5

221

2

12

2004

Randy Moss

12.2

155

19

55

1998

Antonio Freeman

12.8

226

2

13

2001

Marvin Harrison

12.9

242

1

11

2003

Marvin Harrison

12.9

187

5

18

2000

Randy Moss

13.4

233

1

17

2005

Randy Moss

14.0

148

15

46

1999

Antonio Freeman

14.3

143

20

56

2008

Terrell Owens

14.5

168

9

31

2002

Marvin Harrison

15.0

239

1

10

2006

Steve Smith

15.6

176

8

24

2003

Terrell Owens

15.7

164

12

30

2004

Marvin Harrison

15.9

201

5

19

The top-six draft picks are exceptions - some years those spots yield players who put up fantasy points that go off the charts. Think of LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. LT had an NFL record of 31 touchdowns, plus 1,815 rushing yards, 508 receiving yards and even two touchdown passes that year. He was taken in the top three in nearly every draft. In fact, of the 15 highest scoring fantasy seasons, 60 percent of those players have been taken in the first four picks. If you're drafting in the top four especially, the potential for a running back that almost single-handily wins you the league validates the conventional wisdom.

DRAFT POSITION --->

Order of players taken

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Overall

RB-RB-WR-WR

161

184

191

237

217

157

118

215

199

222

170

141

259

RB-WR-RB-WR

183

189

156

257

246

166

122

187

134

226

184

226

268

RB-WR-WR-RB

174

209

169

216

221

132

191

258

158

221

153

186

406

WR-RB-RB-WR

113

107

176

242

223

132

146

221

195

308

242

193

294

WR-WR-RB-RB

110

116

180

206

191

147

237

231

159

341

200

219

429

WR-RB-WR-RB

103

128

189

201

198

98

215

292

219

303

210

153

433

* Average fantasy points above replacement for the four players taken

Overall, however, the gap between what running backs and wide receivers produce is narrowing, making an early running back pick less of an advantage. A wide receiver with an ADP in the top 25 has returned 63 percent of the fantasy points of a similarly drafted running back since 1998. Since 2005, that percentage has climbed to 70. Part of this is due to the increasing division of carries between multiple running backs to reduce wear on starters. Since 1998, there has been an average of 9.7 running backs per season with more than 300 carries. There were six in 2007, and five in 2008. Moreover, we based our research on 2-RB, 2-WR leagues. With many, if not most, leagues now requiring three starting wideouts, their increased scarcity makes them even more valuable compared to backs.

Granted, some of the sample sizes in these comparisons are small. And it's harder to pick a top running back or receiver than ADP data would imply. And many leagues don't fit our model in terms of the number of starters or how the draft snakes. However, if you pick in the second half of the first round, taking one or even two receivers with your top two picks often defies the conventional wisdom and pays off.