Election 2012: How Social Media Will Convert Followers into Voters

Social media will change the 2012 election, just as the first televised presidential debate completely altered the election process in the United States.

In 1960, Americans turned on their TV sets to watch a presidential debate for the first time. They saw Richard Nixon, awkward and sweaty, gripping his podium, his grey attire blending into the grey background. To his right was John F. Kennedy, Jr., calm, tanned, deliberate, standing out in his dark suit. There wasn't much question about who won the first televised debate that night. In an election in which nearly every vote counted (Kennedy received 0.2 percent more votes than Nixon did), media power shifted public opinion.

Fast forward to 2012. New media have entered the picture and candidates' online social presence is just as, if not more, likely to affect voting. Sixty percent of social media users responding to a Digitas survey in October 2011 said they expect candidates to have a social media presence; for almost 40 percent, information found on social media will help determine their voting choices as much as traditional media sources like TV or newspapers. For anyone doubting that a social media message is fleeting, 94 percent of social media users of voting age watched a political message in its entirety on a social media site and 39 percent then went on to share it with an average of 130 other users, according to a May 2011 study by Social Vibe.

Engagement level is the key measurement of social media success for a candidate, according to Alexander Howard, Gov 2.0 correspondent for O'Reilly Media. That means that the number of Twitter followers or Facebook fans a candidate has is not nearly as important as their social media interactions with supporters, how many people share the candidate's message with their own network, and how much attention beyond social media (in outlets like The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and CNN) those actions receive. Howard disagrees with the axiom that all publicity is good publicity, and the same goes for engagement. "Look at what happened with Anthony Weiner," Howard told PCMag.

Not only can social media influence the outcome of the election, but its vast stores of data can be dissected for a look at where things are headed. In a partnership between Facebook and Politico, private status messages and comments of Facebook users are being put into an algorithm designed to measure sentiment among those of voting age, turning unguarded moments into hard and fast polling data.

Adding to the interest and intrigue, this year will also likely be the first time Republican voters match—and possibly exceed—their Democratic counterparts in social media use in a presidential election. The Pew Internet and American Life Project found that in the 2010 midterm elections, political social media users skewed Republican (40 to 38 percent) and voted for Republican congressional candidates over Democratic candidates by a 45 to 41 percent margin.

Television hasn't yet released its hold on elections or the electorate (Americans watch an average of 34 hours per week). "For the moment, it's the pinnacle," Howard said. But as sets become more wired, it's possible that their role could evolve to be a mere pipeline for social media. "Television's importance will diminish somewhat," Howard predicted.

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They may frequently denounce European socialism, but Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are both down with Spotify, the music service that had been available only on that continent until last year. Lest you think you'll gain some insight into their musical tastes, you'll only get sound bites. Romney's "Top Hits" are "Gay Marriage," "Tea Party," "Economy," "Tax and Spending Cuts," and "Legal Immigration," while Gingrich's are "Divided Government," "Gotcha Question - Campaign Problems," "Republican Unity to Defeat Obama," "Homeland Security," and "Job Creation." Whoever turns out to be the Republican nominee might want to watch out for President Obama's subtle musical messages. In 2008 when he won Iowa in the Democratic primary, dealing a blow to the campaign of Hillary Clinton, he walked into the victory party to Jay-Z's "99 Problems."