A scene from the 1957 movie Desk Set, starring Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn, with a mainframe computer in the leading role.

Roy Amara’s classic quote goes: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”

Rodney Brooks: Why we will rely on robots
In today’s talk from TED2013, Rodney Brooks invokes this law to talk about robots. While people panic about robots taking their jobs over the course of the next few years, the focus should be on guiding the development of the technology so that, in the upcoming decades, we’ll have robots that can work with an aging world population. As Brooks points out, we are amid a major demographic shift as the number of working-age adults in the United States, Europe and China drops and the number of people past retirement age swells.

The key, says Brooks — the MIT professor who founded iRobot (makers of the Roomba vacuum) and who now heads Rethink Robotics — is robots that everyday workers can easily interact with. Rather than the complicated robots in factories now, which require knowledge of 6-dimensional vectors to operate – we should create robots more like the TUG from Aethon, which helps out nurses with tasks like bringing dirty sheets to the laundry so that they can focus on patients. To this end, Brooks reveals Baxter, a robot for manufacturing environments who has common sense and the ability to learn as humans do, by trial and error. Because Baxter has eyes that move where he looks, and because his arms respond to human touch, Baxter could not only help older workers stay relevant on the job longer — he could also help them maintain independence and dignity at home. Meet Baxter in this fascinating talk.

In a hilarious aside in the talk, Brooks recalls Desk Set, the 1957 movie in which Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn butt heads over a mainframe computer, nicknamed “Emmie,” being brought into a television network’s research department. While the technology was very new at the time (the first mainframe computer was delivered in 1951 to the U.S. Census Bureau) the tension at the heart of the movie — can computers replace human beings? — was highly prescient and continues to produce anxiety today.

The allusion to this delightful movie made us think: what other movies anticipated technology that would eventually change our daily lives? Here, a look at other old movies that foresee common technology.

Tex Avery, creator of Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck and Porky Pig, was also well-known for his World of Tomorrow shorts. In the supercut below, which includes cartoons from 1949 to 1954, the show anticipates the rise of designer prefabricated homes, a computer-like machine that answers kids’ questions (hello, Google) and the pressure cooker of 2050 — even if that one was a little off.

Here’s one for Marty McFly fans. Back to the Future II takes place in the year 2015, but was made in 1989. We’re continuously amused by the hilarious video chatting scenes in the movie, which far predate Skype, Google Plus or Facetime. And check out the scene from the movie, which has characters wearing what looks a whole lot like Google Glass but mostly works as a telephone. “Dad, it’s for you.” (Read the TED staff’s thoughts on Glass.)

The rocket launch in Fritz Lang’s Woman in the Moon looks remarkably real … considering that it was released in 1929 – a full 28 years before Sputnik was launched into space via a rocket. It showed space travel to audiences long before the concept was real to most.

Short Circuit, the Ally Sheedy and Steve Guttenberg flick from 1986, tells the story of an $11 billion anthropomorphic robot who escapes his military makers. It got a lot right about unmanned ground vehicles and military robots that are a part of our life today. (See the best of TED robots, and watch this TED talk on military bots.)

Yes, the 1998 film The Truman Show, starring Jim Carrey, was amusing. But in many ways, it also predicted not just reality TV, but also the non-stop socially shared life brought about via Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Sherry Turkle mused on this: Are we connected, but alone?

As this great article from HP’s Input Output points out, when Star Trekfirst aired in 1966, the automatic door was a brand-new invention. Yet the show included many pieces of speculative technology that now exist, from so-called “replicators” (which are a lot like our 3D printers) to androids, retinal implants, voice-enabled computers and the handheld “tricorder.”

When You’ve Got Mail appeared in 1998, online dating was still uncommon — and thus the perfect backstory for a comedy. By this year, though, a recent study found that a third of new marriages in the United States in 2013 started online.

Special thanks to Emily McManus, Michael McWatters and Morton Bast, who contributed heavily to this piece.

]]>http://blog.ted.com/2013/06/28/10-old-movies-about-new-technology/feed/14Desk-Set-featurekatetedA scene from the 1957 movie Desk Set, starring Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn, with a mainframe computer in the leading role.Talks to watch as you buy tickets for “Star Trek Into Darkness”http://blog.ted.com/2013/05/16/talks-to-watch-as-you-buy-tickets-for-star-trek-into-darkness/
http://blog.ted.com/2013/05/16/talks-to-watch-as-you-buy-tickets-for-star-trek-into-darkness/#commentsThu, 16 May 2013 15:48:41 +0000http://blog.ted.com/?p=75871[…]]]>Last night, many boldly ventured where no man had gone before: to see Star Trek Into Darkness, which opened in some theaters at midnight. The film, which is a sequel to JJ Abrams’ 2009 reboot of the classic series, has been highly anticipated ever since its lyrical trailer materialized late last year. Writes critic Betsy Sharkey of The Los Angeles Times, “So many things are done right that even with the bombast, Into Darkness is the best of this summer’s biggies thus far. It’s a great deal of brash fun, and it should satisfy all those basic Trekkie cravings.”

Here, two talks to watch as you buy tickets for the movie’s official opening tonight. First, a talk from JJ Abrams himself, “The mystery box,” given at TED2007:

And second, check out this talk from the incredible George Takei, aka the original Captain Sulu. At TEDxBroadway, the actor talks about why he’s created a musical about Japanese-American internment:

“Movies have proved to be the ultimate medium for magic,” says Don Levy in today’s talk.

A member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and former senior vice president of marketing and communications at Sony Pictures, Levy has always been fascinated by the sleights of hand that filmmakers use to create illusions. And he knows he is far from alone. In the 117 years since the Lumière Brothers terrified audiences with their Train Pulling Into a Station (1896), Levy explores how visual effects have evolved.

“With complete control of everything the audience can see, movie makers have created an arsenal of techniques to further their deceptions,” says Levy. “Playing with the world and our perception of it really is the essence of visual effects.”

But Levy knows that words cannot capture the goosebump-raising experience of seeing something wonderful on a big screen. So, with the help of the Academy, he created an exclusive video for TED showing the evolution of effects. This thrilling montage pairs similar clips from different points in the history of film — George Méliès’ A Trip to the Moon (1902) compared to 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968’s Academy Award winner for Visual Effects) and Avatar (Visual Effects Oscar winner in 2009), and the crowd scenes of Ben Hur (1925) contrasted with those in Gladiator (which won the 2000 Oscar for Visual Effects).

Watch Levy’s talk, which is a feast for the eyes and imagination. Here, see nine more talks about movie magic.

Ed Ulbrich: How Benjamin Button got his face
Ed Ulbrich: How Benjamin Button got his faceMost movies that portray the same character at wildly different ages opt to use different actors for the roles. But not The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Digital effects master Ed Ulbrich, from Digital Domain, shares how his team dramatically aged Brad Pitt 45 years for the film. While their initial reaction upon the greenlighting of the film was panic, they went on to win an Oscar for the work.

Beeban Kidron: The shared wonder of film
Beeban Kidron: The shared wonder of film
Human beings create identities through narratives. In this talk from TEDSalon London Spring 2012, British filmmaker Beeban Kidron — director of Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason — shares why she thinks it’s important for children to watch films, both new and old. “Cinema is arguably the 20th century’s most influential art form … [But] we are increasingly offered a diet in which sensation, not story, is king,” says Kidron. “If we could raid the annals of 100 years of film, maybe we could build a narrative that would deliver meaning to the fragmented and restless world of the young.”

J.J. Abrams: The mystery box
JJ Abrams: The mystery box
Writer, director and producer JJ Abrams layers mysteries in his television series Alias and Lost, and in his big-screen reimagining of Star Trek. At TED2007, Abrams credits his imagination to his grandfather, who he calls the “ultimate deconstructor,” always intent on figuring out how things work.