Cassandra's Curse:
What If You Could Predict The Future,
but No One Would Believe
You?

William Schmidt,
- Tiger Software's Creator
(C) 2007 William Schmidt, Ph. D. - All Rights
Reserved. No reproductions of this blog or
quoting from it
without explicit written consent by its author is
permitted.

Peerless Has Just Given A Major Sell Signal on The US
Stock Market,
and That Is
Usually A Global Sell Signal, too, but Everywhere I Go,
Investors Are
Naively Oblivious.

That
was the fate of Cassandra of Troy in Homer's Iliad.
Cassandra was a beautiful,young woman, blessed with the gift of prophecy by Apollo,
who was wildly infatuated with her. Unfortunately, she shunned Apollo at the last
minute and he added a twist to her gift; Cassandra
was doomed to tell the truth, but never to be believed. King Priam did not know what to do
with her,
so he tried to keep Cassandra
locked up and out of the way of the warriors of Troy. When Troy finally
fell to the Greek invaders,
Cassandra was attacked and supposedly raped by the Greek warrior Ajax
of Locris, but eventually avenged by Athena.
When Cassandra accompanied the Greek heroAgamemnon
as his mistress to his homeland, she was killed by his vengeful wife, Clytaemnestra.

Sometimes one
does know something bad is going to happen and one is powerless to
prevent it.
I had read the Pentagon
Papers about the US war in Viet Nam and I knew in 2002
and 2003, as
clearly as one can ever know anythng, that Bush was making a terrible blunder in
attacking Iraq.
When the powers-that-be refuse to listen one does get mad, out of extreme
frustration.And when one is accused of being arrogant for knowing more
than the
"experts", it adds insult to the injury of
frustration.

Peerless
gave a letter-perfect major Sell signal last week as the DJI reached its high peak
at 1400, as the SP-500 reached its peak at 1550 and as the NASDAQ reached its peak at
2712.
Now a week later the DJI at this writing is 13400, the SP-500 is 1470 and the NASDAQ
stands
at 2570. The markets are down nearly 5%. The chart paterns show today's action
completed a
head and shoulders pattern, which sets the stage for a further decline. As the DJI
has not had
a 10% correction or more since March 2003, we have now gone a record 50 months without
any significant profit-taking. Adding to that is the fact many of the overseas
markets are up 300%
to 450% since early 2003, and you can see there is extreme vulnerability now.

Last week when, based on our major Sell signals, I told people to Sell, to raise
cash, to
take some profits, every one of the 'newbies' dismissed my warnings. They said that
history does
not repeat and that, anyway, they are long-term investors. They said, if
you're so smart, why
aren't you rich? They said why would you tell anyone? Just trade on the
secrets of market timing
yourself. And in some cases, they looked at me, as though I was arrogant and
mad! So,
the curse of Cassandra is very real, especially to me.

Here is the current Peerless chart.
Call us at 858-273-5900. Order the software here
or the nightly market comments. Note the price of the nightly hotline is being
raised to $298
for a year, on August 1st. Options traders should go to this link to see how to
profit big time
from declines like this. Major Sell

Compare this with the chart from 1989 or 1987. The bases for these signals were
spelled out in
a book I wrote in 1981, based on close inspection of market tops in 1970 to 1981.
History
is not bunk. It is our best guide!

We
don't know why insiders are selling. That is often the case. But these
insiders know
somethng.bad
is coming down the pike. Will there be a war with Iran? Is that why the market
is going
down.
Here is what I wrote two days ago. War
with Iran?

An attack on Iran is by, no means, unlikely. Pentagon war planning has started.
Administration
planning seeks to a regime change in Iran by covert means. Seymour Hersch wrote in
2005 in the New
Yorker:
"In my interviews [with former high-level intelligence officials], I was repeatedly
told that the
next strategic target was Iran. Everyone is saying, "You can't be serious about
targeting Iran.
Look at Iraq," the former [CIA] intelligence official told me. But the [Bush
administration officials]
say, "We've got some lessons learned , not militarily, but how we did it politically.
We're not
going to rely on agency pissants? No loose ends, and that?s why the C.I.A. is out of
there."

An article in The American Conservative by intelligence analyst
Philip Giraldi should be read.
"In Case of Emergency, Nuke Iran," suggested the resurrection of active U.S.
military planning against
Iran" but with the shocking disclosure that in the event of another 9/11-type
terrorist attack on U.S. soil,
Vice President Dick Cheney?s office wants the Pentagon to be prepared to launch a
potential tactical
nuclear attack on Iran ? even if the Iranian government was not involved with any such
terrorist attack
against the U.S.: (Source: http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.html
)

Cheney pushes Bush to act on Iran
"Military solution back in favour as Rice loses out
President not prepared to leave conflict unresolved." Ewen MacAskill in Washington and
Julian Borger
Guardian (UK) Monday July 16, 2007

"The balance in the internal White House debate over
Iran has shifted back in favour of military
action before President George Bush leaves office in 18 months, the Guardian has learned.

The shift follows an internal review involving the White House, the Pentagon and the state
department
over the last month. Although the Bush administration is in deep trouble over Iraq, it
remains focused
on Iran. A well-placed source in Washington said: "Bush is not going to leave office
with Iran still in limbo...

"Almost half of the US's 277 warships are stationed close to Iran, including
two aircraft carrier groups.
The aircraft carrier USS Enterprise left Virginia last week for the Gulf. A Pentagon
spokesman said
it was to replace the USS Nimitz and there would be no overlap that would mean three
carriers in
Gulf at the same time."

The current yearly chart of crude oil (using the perpetual contract data from Dial Data)
shows
an inverted head
and shoulders pattern. The height of the pattern before prices broke past
the pattern's
neckline in June was 15 points, measuring from the January low at 51 straight up
to the neckline
there mat 66. Prices broke out above the neckline at 70; so, if we add 15 to 70
we get $85.
This is the classic way technicans set minimum price objectives. See Edwards
and Magee, Technical
Analysis of Stock Trends.

Probably, the price target is better set conservatively at 83-85. Either way, crude
oil
should rise, at a
minimum another 10% in the months ahead. The surpassing $80 will probably
spook the stock
market. So we should be careful. As crude oil goes up, inflationary numbers
start giving the
Fed more ammunition to raise interest rates. In truth, the Fed is less
concerned about
inflation, per
se, and more concerned with what level of interest rates it must set to get foreigners
to buy bonds
denominated in sagging US dollars. Friday the Euro and the British Pound made 5 year
highs
versus the
dollar. The Japanese yen moved back above its key 50-day mvg, avg,