Article excerpt

HOW voters nominate candidates for the White House has been one
of the longest-running dramas in US history.

The system devised by the Founding Fathers, itself greatly
debated, survived only two elections. The nominating process has
since undergone revisions in every decade.

This year, the changes are dramatic. Eager to exercise greater
influence in the selection of candidates, more than a dozen states
have moved their primaries or caucuses up. Some, such as the New
England states, have banded together to produce regional primaries.

As a result, the vast majority of delegates to the nominating
conventions will be chosen in a frenetic five-week period from Feb
12, the Iowa caucuses, to March 26, the California primary.
Ironically, the shortest primary season in history has already
produced the longest campaign.

The compacted primary season has increased the importance of
money and the media. Candidates have to stump in more states
simultaneously, making them more dependent on TV ads to convey
their messages. The schedule has also forced earlier and more
expensive advertising. Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander
started running television ads in June. Media mogul Steve Forbes
has reportedly spent more than $10 million - most of it on TV and
radio ads - since late September. The need to spend early has had a
winnowing effect even before votes are cast. Sen. Arlen Specter has
already withdrawn; other campaigns are sputtering.

In the end, however, the front-loaded schedule may do little to
offset the influence of early birds Iowa and New Hampshire. And
once the process starts, primaries will come with such speed that
candidates will have almost no time to connect directly with voters.

Another facet of the new primary season is the "black hole," the
period from April, when major-party nominees will be known, to
August, when they will be formally chosen at conventions. This gap
provides ample time for third parties or independents to develop.

"It'll be bam, wham, no national discussion," says Michael
Goldstein, political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in
California. "That leaves a large window for public
dissatisfaction. …