Movies: Past, present and future

The 2007 Academy Awards were the first Oscars to be chronicled on Twitter in real time, by the Hollywood gossip blog Defamer. At the time, Twitter was a rather unknown novelty, but today it boasts millions of users and is an ever-updating reflection of the vox populi.

So many Twitter users have expressed opinions about this year’s Academy Awards race that it would be virtually impossible for someone to find and digest them all. That’s why The Times, IBM and the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab created the Oscar Senti-meter, an online tool that can catalog a large number of Oscar-related tweets each day and uses language-recognition technology to analyze positive, negative and neutral opinions. It also counts the number of tweets.

Tweets captured by the Senti-meter on Feb. 26, the day of the awards ceremony, showed a massive increase in volume, as huge numbers of people took to Twitter to share their opinions about the show in real time. Check out this chart:

The volume of Oscar-related tweets first spiked at 5:41 p.m., coinciding with the first award of the night, cinematography, which went to “Hugo.” The win, an upset over “The Tree of Life,” sparked chatter on Twitter at a rate approaching 10,000 tweets per minute. In the two months leading up to the Oscars, the film “Hugo” averaged just over 2,500 tweets per day.

One Twitter user wrote, “Best Cinematography goes to HUGO! Over Tree of Life -- very interesting #oscars.”

By the end of the night, “Hugo” would take home five awards and rack up 107,041 total tweets.The 6-o’clock hour broke the barrier of 10,000 tweets per minute twice, peaking at 6:58 p.m., when Christopher Plummer won the award for supporting actor for his role in “Beginners.” The award capped a season sweep for Plummer, who also won BAFTA, SAG and Golden Globe awards for his performance.

One Twitter user’s reaction: “Glad Plummer won. Beginners was better then some of the Best Picture nominees I saw. Looking at you Tree of Life & Moneyball. #Oscars.”

The highest spike of the night, and the only moment to break the barrier of 20,000 tweets per minute, was just after 8:24 p.m., when Meryl Streep won a lead-actress statuette for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady.” Many people had expected Viola Davis, of the Southern drama “The Help,” to win.

Twitter users reacted to Streep’s win with a mix of approval and disappointment. One user wrote, “I am so excited that Meryl Streep won Best Actress! I can't believe she only won 3 out of 17 times. She deserved so many more.”

Another user felt differently: “Streep is great; an icon; but her performance over Viola Davis in The Help? Really?”

According to the Senti-meter’s analysis, tweets about Davis were more likely to be positive than those about Streep.

All told, Streep was mentioned in 146,470 tweets on Feb. 26, more than 40 times her daily average in the two months leading up to the show, and Davis was mentioned in 27,036 tweets, more than the previous two months combined.

Overall, “The Help” and best-picture winner “The Artist” had the most positive sentiment among all movies.

One thing you can count on every year at the Oscars, no matter who wins, is that they’ll get people talking. Check out theinteractive Senti-meter tool, and read sample tweets, and track tweet volume for the entire awards season by clicking here.

An old show biz adage says that any publicity is good publicity. But when it comes to, say, Oscar buzz, we might ask which is more important: quantity or quality. The Los Angeles Times’ interactive Oscar Senti-Meter attempts to measure both by analyzing opinions about the Academy Awards race shared in millions of public messages on Twitter.

Developed by The Times, IBM and the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab, the Senti-Meter (available at latimes.com/sentimeter) combs through and catalogs a high volume of tweets each day and uses language-recognition technology to gauge positive, negative and neutral opinions shared in the messages. It also tracks the number of tweets.

This installment of the Senti-Meter looks at aggregate data from Dec. 21-Feb. 20, and suggests that the films, actors and actresses talked about most on Twitter aren’t necessarily the most beloved. Focusing on tweets captured by the Senti-Meter about the nominees for best picture, lead actor and lead actress, it was Meryl Streep, star of “The Iron Lady,” who had the largest volume of tweets, 217,945, indicating that she was by far the most popular topic of discussion.

For comparison, Streep’s volume was more than six times that of her male counterpart, George Clooney (“The Descendants”), who led nominated actors with 36,277 tweets, and just over 38% more than “Hugo,” the leading best picture nominee.

Although very large numbers of people tweeted about Streep over the last two months, the Senti-Meter also indicates that tweets about fellow nominee Viola Davis, star of “The Help,” were more positive on average than those about Streep. Positive sentiments are calculated by the Senti-Meter and expressed as numerical values, and Davis ranked highest of the five lead actress nominees. Streep had the least positive sentiment.

The Senti-Meter can’t generate reports about the reason (or reasons) why tweets about Davis were more positive than tweets about Streep. But one possibility is that people were big fans of Streep as an actress but not necessarily of “The Iron Lady” as a film.

For example, a tweet captured on Jan. 21 read: “Saw Iron Lady last night. Meryl Streep deserves the Academy Award, but story is missing an arc.” “The Help,” meanwhile, ranked higher for positive sentiment than “The Iron Lady,” suggesting that Twitter users preferred Davis’ film overall. A typical tweet, captured Feb. 3, said: “The Help is a warm and touching film. Viola Davis is excellent in it. Fully deserves all the accolades.”

In the race for best picture, “Hugo” fared similarly to Streep: It was the film with the highest volume of tweets (followed by “The Artist”) but scored lowest for positive sentiment among the nine nominees. “Midnight in Paris” ranked highest for positive sentiment, followed by “The Help.”

The film tweeted about least was “The Tree of Life,” which was released back in May, long before the hoopla of awards season, and has polarized critics and audiences. It is something of a dark-horse candidate. As one tweet put it: “The Tree of Life was a beautiful and poetic film, but so exasperating.”

Among nominees for lead actor, Clooney had the highest volume, but once again someone else ranked higher for positive sentiment: Jean Dujardin of “The Artist.” (Clooney ranked second.) A Feb. 18 tweet about Dujardin gushed: “A real actor can captivate an audience even without making a sound. (An Oscar for Jean Dujardin, please.) #TheArtist.”

Gary Oldman, of “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” had the lowest positive sentiment. Despite a number of tweets congratulating Oldman on his first Oscar nomination, it’s possible that his overall sentiment was dragged down by the folks who found “Tinker, Tailor” either boring or confusing. A Jan. 25 tweet offered this haiku-like appraisal: “Tinker Tailor Spider Spy: Confusing. Finest men in their finest suits. Gary Oldman.”

Come Oscar night, it will be interesting to see who goes home with the gold — the one talked about most, the one with the most positive sentiment or one of the underdogs. Only time will tell.

Trying to predict winners at the Academy Awards can be like trying to read tea leaves, but thanks to tools like The Times’ Oscar Senti-meter, which analyzes Oscar-related buzz on Twitter, we can bring a bit of “Moneyball”-like analysis to the process.

Examining tweets captured by the Senti-meter in the wake of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts awards, held Feb. 12 in London, shows that BAFTA-watching Twitter users had a lot to say about silent-film star Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”), hometown hero Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”) and perennial favorite Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”).

The Senti-meter is an interactive tool developed by The Times, IBM and the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab that analyzes opinions about the Academy Awards race by combing through and cataloging a high volume of tweets each day. It uses language-recognition technology to gauge positive, negative and neutral opinions shared in the messages, and it also tracks the number of tweets.

Take, for example, “The Artist,” which is nominated for 10 Oscars and won best picture, director, screenplay and lead actor at the BAFTAs: In the three days leading up to the British awards, “The Artist” was mentioned in 1,253, 1,331 and 1,166 tweets, a daily average of 1,250 tweets. On Feb. 12, the day of the BAFTAs, the Twitterverse exploded with 10,296 tweets about the film, a more than eight-fold increase.

The high volume consisted largely of congratulatory and celebratory tweets, such as “The Artist Best Film !!! #BAFTA ! :D #Proud” and “Fantastic that The Artist did so well. Wonderful, charming film.”

Dujardin, the French leading man of “The Artist,” also received a BAFTA bump after he won the award for lead actor. Dujardin averaged about 454 tweets per day from Feb. 9-11, but shot up to 2,330 on Feb. 12, an increase of more than five times.

One Dujardin fan put it this way: “So happy Jean Dujardin wins BAFTA. Just one more to go ... two weeks tonight #Oscar.”

Dujardin also received some Twitter buzz after guest appearances on “Saturday Night Live,” reprising his silent-star persona, and on the website Funny or Die, humorously auditioning for a surfeit of stereotypical French bad-guy roles.

Among the actors Dujardin bested at the BAFTAs was Englishman Oldman, star of the thriller “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” Oldman remains a long shot to win lead actor at the Oscars (his first-ever nomination), but perhaps he can take some consolation in having lots of fans on Twitter.

Averaging about 119 tweets per day going into the BAFTAs, Oldman shot up to 1,502 on Feb. 12, an increase of more than 12 times. One Oldman supporter (and Grammy hater) tweeted, “grammys can suck my toes, on the other hand the baftas was delightful S/O to Gary Oldman you was snubbed but still a winner and legend.”

Oldman’s movie also won awards for outstanding British film and adapted screenplay. Averaging 900 tweets over the previous three days, “Tinker Tailor” racked up 5,488 tweets the day of the awards, a more than six-fold increase. Positive sentiment for the film, which has occasionally been deemed boring and confusing by Twitter users, also edged upward.

One Twitter user wrote, “So glad Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy won Best British Film at #Baftas. It was brilliant, and should have gotten more Oscar nods.”

Meanwhile, BAFTA-winning actress Streep, who portrays former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the biopic “The Iron Lady,” continued her reign as a favorite Twitter subject. From an average of 1,695 tweets per day captured by the Senti-meter leading up to the BAFTAs, Streep skyrocketed to 14,725 tweets upon winning the lead actress award, dwarfing any other actress (or actor, for that matter).

For comparison, “The Help” star Viola Davis, who is widely considered the other Oscar front-runner alongside Streep for lead actress, managed only 364 tweets the same day.

In the words of one Streep fan, “I love meryl Streep! Superb actress! Classy all round! So happy she won tonight! Bring on the Oscar.”

That said, neither the BAFTA awards nor the Twitterverse is a foolproof predictor of Oscar success; we’ll have to wait till Feb. 26 to be sure. Until then, though, we can see what all the talk is about.

Australian actor Russell Crowe was among the many people who voiced disappointment when Gosling wasn't nominated for an Academy Award for his performance in “The Ides of March” or “Drive.” “Ryan Gosling didn't get an Academy nomination? There's some [nonsense] right there,” Crowe tweeted on Jan. 25 (although he used a more colorful word than “nonsense”).

The Oscar Senti-meter — an online tool developed by the L.A. Times, IBM and the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab — analyzes opinions about the Academy Awards race shared in millions of public messages on Twitter. One interesting application of the Senti-meter is examining the effect of celebrity tweets.

The Senti-meter combs through a high volume of tweets daily and uses language-recognition technology, developed in collaboration with USC's Signal Analysis and Interpretation Lab, to gauge positive, negative and neutral opinions shared in the messages. It also tracks the number of tweets.

More than 2,500 users retweeted Crowe's initial message about Gosling. Crowe continued the Gosling chatter the next day when he wrote, “I note that the australian academy has nominated Fassbender and Gosling for Best International actor,” referring also to “Shame” star Michael Fassbender and the Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts International Awards. (Jean Dujardin of “The Artist” would ultimately take home the award.)

Looking at the Senti-meter from Jan. 25 to 26, the tweet count for Gosling and his award prospects rose from 754 to 893, partly powered by Crowe's tweets, and positive sentiment for Gosling also rose. Gosling's tweet count continued its climb through Jan. 27, hitting 1,043 total tweets.

Another celebrity who has proved capable of moving the needle is pop starlet Miley Cyrus. On Jan. 23, she tweeted, “‘Midnight in Paris' makes me want to go back to the most romantic city in the world,” a reference to the Woody Allen film starring Owen Wilson and Rachel McAdams.

The sentiment was retweeted more than 6,000 times and prompted replies both positive, such as “@MileyCyrus its like one of the best movies of 2011? #amazing ‘Midnight in Paris' #MidnightInParis,” and negative, including “@MileyCyrus I was disapointed w ‘Midnight in Paris'-- regardless, it still made me mad-jealous of Luke [sic] Wilson.”

Between Jan. 22 and 23, the Senti-meter data shows the tweet count for “Midnight in Paris” rising from 1,723 to 2,404, an increase of nearly 40%. Positive sentiment for the film also shot up on Jan. 23, reaching its highest point. Replies and retweets continued to ripple for days afterward.

Comedian Michael Ian Black racked up 1,274 retweets with a quip about Meryl Streep on Jan. 15, the night Streep won lead actress in a drama at the Golden Globes for her performance as Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady.” “The only time Meryl Streep sucks at acting is when she pretends to be surprised when she wins awards,” Black wrote.

His bon mot was part of the massive volume of Streep tweets posted that day: 37,583.

Fellow comedian Chris Rock also offered up some Oscar humor on Twitter. On Jan. 26, he wrote, “I'm at the movies went to see the artist the movie looks great but the sound is [messed] up,” garnering 357 retweets.

Fortunately, Rock doesn't have to worry about sound problems on Twitter. The Senti-meter is always listening.

When Oscar nominations were announced, the Twitterverse lit up with messages from movie fans excited about — and upset about — the picks in the best picture, lead actor and lead actress categories. But you might be surprised about which performers and movies got the most tweets — and who had the most positive buzz.

The Oscar Senti-meter — a tool developed by the L.A. Times, IBM and the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab — analyzes opinions about the Academy Awards race shared in millions of public messages on Twitter. The Senti-meter combs through a high volume of tweets daily and uses language-recognition technology, developed in collaboration with USC’s Signal Analysis and Interpretation Lab, to gauge positive, negative and neutral opinions shared in the messages. It also tracks the number of tweets.

Cataloging these tweets over time gives insight into the vox pop surrounding Hollywood’s awards season, and gives a voice to average fans who may endorse — or abhor — the selections made by Tinseltown’s elite.

Using our interactive tool, you can compare the volume and tone of tweets about the lead actor contest between two days, Monday, Jan. 23, the day before the Oscar nominations, and Tuesday, Jan. 24, the day the nominees were announced.

With George Clooney and Brad Pitt landing nominations for “The Descendants” and “Moneyball,” respectively, you might expect that these big names and their Oscar prospects might have garnered the most buzz on nominations day.

Instead, though, it was Demian Bichir, the Mexican-born star of the little-seen “A Better Life,” and his awards prospects that topped the charts with 6,893 messages. That was a 47-fold increase from his tally the day before, when there were just 33 tweets related to Bichir and Hollywood awards.

Some typical messages were “wow!!! Mexican pride!!! This is so awesome! ?@Vacartu: @juanmgc Demian Bichir just got nominated for a Best Actor at the Oscars” and “Congratulations to Mexican actor Demian Bichir, nominated BEST ACTOR for the all Hispanic-cast film A Better Life!” Bichir’s response to his nomination — “I dedicate this nomination to those 11 million human beings who make our lives easier and better in the U.S.,” a reference to undocumented workers like the one he plays in the film — prompted another wave of supportive tweets.

Spanish speakers took to Twitter en masse, sending more than 4,000 tweets about the nomination, such as “Bien! Demian Bichir nominado para Actor in a Leading Role por Better Life #oscars #mexicanpride” but his volume was also upped by messages such as: “Who is Demian Bichir and why is he nominate for best actor. #Oscars2012”

Another foreign-born actor, Jean Dujardin, was nominated for lead actor for his lead role in “The Artist,” but the Frenchman and his awards prospects saw the lowest volume of any nominees on Tuesday — with just 1,388.

Gary Oldman, star of “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” was a close second to Bichir, with 6,841 tweets.As for snubs, Michael Fassbender — who bared it all in “Shame” — was the subject of the most outrage, with 3,513 messages.

Some more sample tweets from Oscar nomination day:

Demian Bichir nominado al Oscar? Now I’ve seen everything!!

I reeeaaallly want Brad Pitt to take Best Actor at the Oscars. Think “Most Improved,” and he’s absolutely earned it.

If Gary Oldman doesn’t win Best Actor In A Leading Role then I don’t want to live anymore. #TeamGaryOldman

SOBBING HYSTERICALLY AT GARY OLDMAN BEING NOMINATED FOR BEST ACTOR. IT IS ABOUT TIME. IF HE DOESN’T WIN I WILL THROW THINGS. #Oscars

I love Clooney but I’m not convinced dressing like a schlub, sporting a bad haircut, and turning off the charm makes an Oscar-worthy perf.

why do I have a feeling that if Jean Dujardin wins Best Actor, he’ll pull a Roberto Begnini?

I have to imagine that Billy Crystal is probably taking Michael Fassbender's Oscar snub far harder than Fassbender is.

Have fun exploring the interactive tool, and keep tweeting. Who knows, your messages might just show up in our sample tweets on a future day.

Welcome to the Oscar Senti-meter –- an interactive tool developed by the L.A. Times, IBM and the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab to analyze opinions about the Academy Awards race shared in millions of public messages on Twitter.

Focused on the best actor, best actress and best picture categories, the Senti-meter combs through a high volume of tweets daily and uses language-recognition technology, developed in collaboration with USC’s Signal Analysis and Interpretation Lab, to gauge positive, negative and neutral opinions shared in the messages. It also tracks the number of tweets. Cataloging these tweets over time gives insight into the vox pop surrounding Hollywood’s award season and gives a voice to average fans who may endorse -– or abhor –- the selections made by Tinseltown’s elite.

Check out our interactive tool: For example, you can compare volume and tone of tweets about the best actress contest on two days, Saturday, Jan. 14, the day before the Golden Globes, and Sunday, Jan. 15, the day of the awards.

As you’d expect, the volume of tweets about the actresses shot up sharply on Golden Globes day. Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams, winners of the best actress statuettes for drama and musical/comedy, respectively, saw the most chatter.

On Saturday, Streep and her awards prospects were the subject of 3,774 tweets registered and rated by the Senti-meter. She saw her volume rise tenfold to 37,583 tweets on awards day, but the overall tone of those tweets was more negative than it had been on the eve of the Globes. The drop in sentiment seemed to be due to some displeasure about her awards speech, and catty comments about her dress.

For instance, one tweet read: "Being ‘surprised’ at her Golden Globe win is probably the worst acting Meryl Streep has ever done. Come on! You're MERYL STREEP.” While another commenter said: “Does Meryl Streep get her outfits from Chico's or Talbots?”

Other comments included:

“Meryl Streep won because she's Meryl Streep, yawn, boring. I heard that movie was unbearable too. Just saying.”

“I hate meryl streep and her false humility.”

“Was Meryl Streep wearing a cow girl shirt that they just extended into a horrible dress?”

On Saturday, Williams’ awards prospects were the subject of just 115 tweets registered by the Senti-meter, but 4,394 messages about her were logged on awards night. And along with her volume rising 38-fold, the overall tone of the messages on Globes evening was more positive, driven by her speech and her choice of dress.

Among the messages about Williams that night:

“Nice speech by Michelle Williams, but strange category for #MyweekwithMarilyn”

“Loving Michelle Williams' dress and win for My Week With Marilyn. Toast her in style with a Norma Jean punch!!”