EU awaits Irish verdict

The Irish are punching well above their weight. Yesterday, Gordon Brown managed to eke out victory in the Commons on plans to detain terror suspects for 42 days without charge thanks mainly to Northern Ireland's nine Democratic Unionist MPs.

Today, the EU holds its breath as voters from the Irish Republic have their say on a referendum on the unloved Lisbon treaty. So by an extraordinary quirk of history the fate of 500 million Europeans and 27 countries lies in the hands of Ireland, with a population of 4.2 million. That's how the Daily Mail puts it, with just a whiff of exaggeration.

The Lisbon treaty is an attempt to make the EU work better now that the club has expanded eastwards. But its critics from right and left maintain that the Lisbon treaty is the EU constitution - rejected in referendums by the Dutch and the French - in another guise. So the Eurosceptic Mail would dearly love the Irish to say no: "Only Ireland stands between a proper rethink of the treaty and the empire-building ambitions of the anti-democratic, expenses fiddling systematically corrupt Eurocrats aboard the Brussels gravy train."

The Guardian's Seumas Milne would be horrified to find himself in the same camp as the Mail, but the two share the same antipathy to Brussels. Coming from the left, Milne also worries about a further concentration of power in Brussels. "It, effectively makes the liberalisation and privatisation of public services a constitutional goal, opens up transport and energy to enforced private competition, requires member states to boost their 'military capabilities', and sharply increases the powers of the European court of justice."

The Irish Independent paper strikes a more pragmatic note. "At best, a 'no' vote would seriously reduce Ireland's status in Europe. Our ability to address important economic matters such as the financing of CAP (common agricultural policy) would be weakened. Matters which could be detrimental to Ireland, and which had been dealt with by Ireland's representatives over years of negotiation, will be put back on the table by countries pursuing their own interests."

Gail McElroy, a lecturer in political science, sums up the EU's problem by telling the International Herald Tribune: "The problem is that it's not a very exciting treaty. Institutional efficiency is very hard to get people excited about."

If only Brussels could tap the excitement generated by the Eurovision song contest, perhaps it could make headway on these impenetrable institutional issues.

· This is an extended extract of the Wrap, our daily round-up of the morning papers.