Ford's best
selling F-Series pickups can tow up to 24,000-pounds, but are they
tough enough to handle a "super spike" in fuel prices?
Investment bank Goldman Sachs is forecasting oil could
rise to an unprecedented $200 a barrel in the next six to twenty-four
months.

The report
was issued by Arjun
Murti, a veteran oil analyst and managing director at Goldman Sachs.
Mr. Murti is known for correctly predicting that oil would jump to
$105 a barrel, back when it was trading at 'only' $50 a barrel in 2005.
Oil broke the century mark for the first time in January 2008
and hit an all-time record of $122 yesterday.

Mr. Murti
says basic economics are behind the continued rapid run up in
prices. China and other countries continue to grow
faster than new fuel sources can be discovered and developed. Any
drop in demand from U.S. consumers, hurting from the financial pain
of $100-plus fill ups of full size trucks, hasn't offset the larger
demand created by increasing numbers of drivers in emerging markets.
It doesn't help that the Chinese government subsidizes fuel costs,
thereby encouraging more driving in China.

Even today
the effect
has dramatically chilled sales of big pickups. With regular
gas currently averaging $3.61 a gallon and diesel at $4.24 a gallon,
the segment is tracking to fall to about 1.9 million units in 2008,
from 2.5 million units three years ago, according
to Automotive News.

Yet under
the latest Goldman Sachs scenario, fuel prices could rise to over $6.00
a gallon, likely devastating full size pickup sales to under a
million units. Short term production cutbacks could turn into long
term factory closures as manufacturers struggle to reconcile output
with the new level of demand. (Dodge Ram buyers who opt for Chrysler's recently
announced $2.99 a gallon fuel guarantee could look like
geniuses in 2009 and 2010.)

Small trucks,
avoided by consumers for much of this decade because manufacturers
spent new product dollars upgrading half-tons and heavy-dutys, stand
ready to make a big comeback. Only about 500,000 compact pickups were
sold last year, but in the 1980s and 1990s annual sales were as high
as 1.1-million units. Sales of
the ancient Ford Ranger are up 12.3% year-to-date through April, and
last month the Toyota Tacoma moved back into the number five sales
slot among the top ten selling pickups, ahead of slowing sales of
the Toyota Tundra.

An opportunity
is opening in the U.S. for very small diesel trucks, like Europe's
Romanian-built Dacia Logan (bottom picture), to start filling in some
of the empty space left behind by heavy duty and half-ton pickups.
The $11,000 USD Logan has a four-cylinder 1.6-liter diesel engine.
It can haul up to 1,763-lbs and achieve fuel economy ratings of
29 mpg.

The Logan
will never be able to tow thousands of pounds like the F-Series
but in a world where oil may reach $200 a barrel, compact trucks like
it could save buyers tons of dough and, maybe, even outsell today's
best selling pickups.