Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

Last year's Draft Guide was epic. I got a majority of my numbers, goals and predictions correct. It will be hard to remake the exact same points from last year with new thoughts and ideas so don't be surprised if I revert back to last year's wording to clear up some points.

Fantasy Baseball is often-times broken down into two different scoring formats: Rotisserie (Roto) and Points. In a Points league, players will receive a predetermined amount of points for what they do on a daily basis. Point totals will vary from league to league so it's important to know how your league scores everything before you draft. In a Rotisserie league, you'll compete for specific categories such as ERA, Home Runs, WHIP and so on. Some Roto leagues are scored on a weekly basis, like head-to-head leagues, while other (often more popular) leagues will add up yearly totals. A majority of the references in my Draft Guide will be in relation to a standard 5x5 rotisserie league with the following categories: Batting Average, Home Runs, Runs Scored, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, ERA, WHIP, Wins, Strikeouts and Saves.

I like Roto scoring more because, generally, the best team will win at the end of the regular season. In head-to-head leagues, you may have a few bad weeks and get burned in the standings. The Rotisserie format allows you to be as patient as possible and focus on the long term goal of being the best team in the league when it's all said and done.

This year I'm making a few small changes to my strategy but a majority of things will remain the same. Last year I made it a point to draft one elite or sub-elite pitcher within the first eight rounds. This year I am telling all of my readers to draft two pitchers that rank among my second tier starters within the first ten rounds. When drafting hitters, I want you to focus on balanced hitters early on and then one-category studs later on. And as always, wait on saves.

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The average Roto league champion will put up roughly 80 points in the standings by season's end. My strategy involves earning at least 40 points from your hitters and at least 40 points from your pitchers without punting any categories. I'll never punt categories and I always value balanced hitters/pitchers over one category studs.

Each year I will give you numbers that I think you have to reach, as a team, by the end of the year in order to have a chance to win your league. Here's a look back at my 2013 Target Numbers:

Wins - 84 (3rd) - 1st place team recorded 99 WinsStrikeouts - 1,196 (4th) - 1st place team recorded 1,444 StrikeoutsERA - 3.375 (2nd) - 1st place team recorded a 3.111 ERAWHIP - 1.183 (3rd) - 1st place team recorded a 1.154 WHIPSaves - 149 (3rd) - 1st place team recorded 162 Saves

Those numbers gave me a goal to keep in mind when I drafted my teams. I followed my Draft Guide closely in one league last year which eventually led me to a championship. That above title team included players like:

If you noticed, I did not draft a Closer until the 14th round. Throughout the season new Closers will emerge allowing you to pick new ones up at a discount. I managed to pick up Kevin Gregg and Joaquin Benoit in the middle of the season last year earning me 45 saves without wasting a draft pick. If you're curious, I dropped Andrew Bailey for Benoit and Michael Wacha for Gregg. I'll have more on my pitching strategy later on.

Keeping those numbers in mind I made a few adjustments for my 2014 targets. I essentially decreased the number of target home runs and steals. The reasoning behind the decrease in target home runs is due to the decrease in home runs hit over the past few years. From 1998 to 2006 Major League Baseball totaled over 5,000 home runs each year. Between 2007 and 2013 players totaled over 5,000 home runs just once.

Season2007200820092010201120122013

Number of Home Runs4,9574,8785,0424,6134,5524,9344,661

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The reasoning behind the decrease in steals is due to me overvaluing the category entering last year. Here's a look at some stolen base statistics over the past five years.

Hitting Strategy

Now that you know my target numbers it's time to take a look at my hitting strategy. My strategy will focus on a standard league with the following 13 roster spots:

C 1B2B3BSS

OFOFOFOFOF

1B/3B2B/SSUTIL

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If you break down my target numbers into each of these starting spots, you'll need to average 23.08 home runs, 15.39 steals, 86.15 RBI, 86.15 Runs and a .284 batting average per slot.

To put that into perspective:43 players hit at least 23 home runs last season.55 players stole at least 15 bases last season.26 players drove in at least 86 RBI last season.30 players scored at least 86 runs last season.49 players hit .284 or better last season.

Among all of those players only six players hit at least 23 homers AND stole at least 15 bases. Among the 26 players that recorded at least 86 RBI, only 13 of them also scored at least 86 runs last year. Among the the 30 players that scored at least 86 runs, only 13 of them also drove in at least 86 RBI.

If you're looking for a player that reached every 2014 target number from last season, only Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt achieved those goals. Hunter Pence fell one batting average point short while Adam Jones fell one stolen base shy from joining them.

Considering a majority of players won't challenge a 23HR/15SB season you'll be forced to draft complimentary players. Sluggers like Alex Rios and Mark Trumbo, who I have going between the 77th and 90th draft picks entering 2014, combined to hit 52 home runs and steal 47 bases last year. If you divide that among two slots, each player would have averaged 26 home runs and 23.5 steals - well above my target numbers. Complimentary players will be key this year as the power/speed combo among elite hitters is a fading trend.

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Another factor entering your drafts is the depth at each position. If you take a look at my Final Hitter Rankings of 2013 you should notice the disparity between the number of players at each position. Among those 100 players I ranked I want to focus on the Top 50 (keep in mind some players I counted at multiple positions due to their flexibility):

It's pretty evident that there aren't a lot of elite Catchers, Second Basemen, Third Basemen or Shortstops out there. The positions with the most depth, like last year, are First Base, Outfield and Starters. This should force you to draft an elite infielder over an elite Outfielder unless of course you have the opportunity to draft Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez or Adam Jones.

Player A is Will Venable who I have going as the 33rd Outfielder and the 129th player off the board. Player B is Austin Jackson who is the 24th Outfielder and the 98th player off the board. I wanted to include my Jackson-Venable comparison for one reason; the depth the Outfield position has to offer.

30 of the 55 players that stole at least 15 bases last year were Outfielders. 16 of the 43 players that hit at least 23 home runs last year were Outfielders.

In fact, there were 17 players that hit at least 15 home runs AND stole at least 15 bases last year, 13 of them were Outfielders. The four that weren't Outfielders: David Wright, Jason Kipnis, Ian Desmond and Paul Goldschmidt.

Now what if I told you that Player A is going between the 6th and 7th rounds while Player B is going between the 13th and 14th rounds. Player A is Elvis Andrus who I have as the 8th best Shortstop and the 60th player off the board. Player B is Carl Crawford who I have as the 34th best Outfielder and the 134th player off the board. I mention these two to make one point, the shallowness of the Shortstop position (as well as Second Base, Third Base and Catcher) will affect your drafts in more ways than one. I think both of these players are good values where I have them, it'll be up to you to decide if you want to listen to me and wait on the non-elite Outfielders. As of right now I'd consider my Top 10 Outfielders to be the elite players at that position.

A perfect example of what I'm talking about can be found in my First Mock Draft. I have Jason Kipnis (my #3 2B) going ahead of Jay Bruce (my #11 OF) in the 4th Round. That should speak to the shallowness at Second Base considering Kipnis is coming off a breakout season and I think he holds more value than Bruce; a 26 year old on a three-year streak of 30+ home runs.

I obviously have Bruce a lot higher in my Keeper Rankings but for 2014 it's not hard to say Kipnis has more value.

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Continuing with the theme of position value I want to bring up a key point I made in last year's Guide: Defense up the middle, power in the corners. Although it does not come up often, if you have an opportunity to play a corner Infielder in a middle Infielder slot, go for it but only if your team lacks power. Think about it, Matt Carpenter hit 11 home runs last year - there were 33 other First Basemen that hit more than him. Among Second Basemen his 11 homer mark ranked 15th. He was considered the 6th best Fantasy First Baseman last year and the 3rd best Fantasy Second Baseman. It was also evident with Hanley Ramirez. Hanley ranked 8th among Fantasy Third Basemen last year and 5th among Shortstops.

If your team has more than enough power and you want to improve your batting average or speed try to play a middle Infielder in a corner Infield slot. Two names that come to mind in the later rounds are Jose Iglesias and Martin Prado. Iglesias will qualify at Shortstop and Third Base. He is an above average hitter with good speed (a complimentary player to a power hitter). Prado qualifies at Second, Third and in the Outfield. He'll bring his career .293 batting average to your team and give you some flexibility (as will Ben Zobrist).

If you want to take a look at players who I think will help me achieve my target numbers take a look at my 2014 Rankings & Projections. Here are some players that I will be targeting in the middle rounds that offer good balance to your rosters.

Round 6Ben Zobrist TBManny Machado BAL

Round 9Salvador Perez KCJason Heyward ATL

Round 7Starling Marte PITEric Hosmer KC

Round 10Austin Jackson DETShin-Soo Choo TEX

Round 8Alex Rios TEXAndrelton Simmons ATL

Round 11Desmond Jennings TBRyan Zimmerman WSH

The above 12 players will be key when you attempt to balance out your rosters on draft day. If you go with heavy power hitters early on make sure you focus on drafting speedsters later on in your drafts. I like Michael Bourn (ADP 171), Ben Revere (ADP 173), Alejandro De Aza (ADP 181) and Jimmy Rollins (ADP 185) as potential sleeper steal-guys after the 16th round.

Remember all of your target goals and that the key to drafting hitters is to rack up 40 Roto points. Here are some more sleepers heading into the 2014 season. Whenever I draft my rosters I pay just as much attention to a player's position as I do their projections. I suggest you do the same.

Pitching Strategy

I mentioned it earlier but I'm changing my pitching strategy up a bit this year. Last year I wanted everyone to draft one pitcher within the first eight rounds. This year I want you to focus on drafting two of my ten favorite pitchers within the first ten rounds. Last year I mentioned the emergence of elite and sub-elite starters. This year is no different as those ten pitchers are my official sub-elite starters.

In 201210 Pitchers had an ERA below 3.04 - 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower5 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - 4 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower10 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 6 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower30 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 14 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower

In 201315 Pitchers had an ERA below 3.04 - 10 of them had a WHIP of 1.09 or lower7 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.05 and 3.16 - 2 of them had a WHIP of 1.14 or lower12 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.17 and 3.40 - 7 of them had a WHIP of 1.19 or lower26 Pitchers had an ERA between 3.41 and 4.00 - 14 of them had a WHIP of 1.24 or lower

It couldn't be more obvious that the depth of star pitchers is increasing to an all-time high. Due to this depth I see no reason to spend a high draft pick on a Top 5 or Top 10 pitcher when you can get similar production from a 5th round starter. For instance, if you were to draft Yu Darvish in the 3rd round and Justin Upton in the 5th round it would be detrimental to your chances. You'd be better off if you take Bryce Harper in the 3rd and Chris Sale, Cole Hamels or Mat Latos in the 5th. The difference between Harper and Upton is much greater than the difference between Darvish and the three starters I mentioned.

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If you follow my Draft Guide you should make it a point to fill out the rest of your rotation with a few upside starters. Considering I don't plan on drafting more than two starters within the first ten rounds it is important to know who I like from the 10th round on. Here are some of my favorites:

Jhoulys Chacin COLHiroki Kuroda NYYLance Lynn STL

Patrick Corbin ARIDoug Fister WSHJon Lester BOS

Andrew Cashner SDChris Tillman BALMichael Wacha STL

In order to achieve a team ERA of 3.15 you have to...Have 200 total starts that average 5 Innings Pitched allowing 1.75 Runs on average (350 total Runs).Have 200 total starts that average 6 Innings Pitched allowing 2.10 Runs on average (420 total Runs).Have 200 total starts that average 7 Innings Pitched allowing 2.45 Runs on average (490 total Runs).Have 200 total starts that average 8 Innings Pitched allowing 2.80 Runs on average (560 total Runs).

It will be impossible to set yourself up with a handful of starters that can achieve these numbers so let's talk about streaming. Last year 73 different pitchers threw at least one complete game; 44 of them pitched a shutout. It will be on you to find what spot starters to pick up throughout the season but I have two key pieces of advice when selecting pitchers to stream: how good is their opponent and where is the game taking place.

The Marlins scored 3.17 runs per game last year. The White Sox scored 3.69 runs per game last year.The Cubs scored 3.72 runs per game last year.The Phillies scored 3.77 runs per game last year.The Astros scored 3.77 runs per game last year.The Twins scored 3.79 runs per game last year.The Padres scored 3.81 runs per game last year.The Mets scored 3.82 runs per game last year.

It's important to note that certain ballparks have a tendency to turn a long fly ball into a round-tripper. It's easy to say Yankee stadium is one you don't want to stream a pitcher at; however, there were nine other parks that allowed more home runs per game last year. Here are the Top 10 and bottom 10 home runs per game by ballparks last season:

To close out my pitching strategy I want to talk about Closers. Like I said before, I always wait on Closers because there's no reason to spend big money on a position that is often associated with a short leash.

There were 32 pitchers that had at least 20 save opportunities last year.There were 23 pitchers that had at least 30 save opportunities last year.There were 14 pitchers that had at least 40 save opportunities last year.

Here's some numbers to better explain the depth of the Closer position over the past five years compared to the previous five seasons:

28 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2013.27 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2012.28 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2011.29 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2010.28 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2009.

22 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2008.23 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2007.25 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2006.25 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2005.23 pitchers recorded at least 20 saves in 2004.

Here are some specific Closers I will be targeting in the later rounds in all of my drafts this year:

Sergio Romo SFJonathan Papelbon PHIDavid Robertson NYY

Huston Street SDSteve Cishek MIARex Brothers COL

Casey Janssen TORBobby Parnell NYMErnesto Frieri LAA

In short,

Closers: Less Is More!

Remember that your main goal is to get 40 Roto points from your pitching staff as a whole. Closers will help you with saves, obviously, but they are also a valuable asset to your team's WHIP and ERA.

Auction Strategy

With the above information fresh in your brain I want to add in my Auction League strategy. Basically, I buy numbers and try to mathematically reach my goals by using my projected numbers. This is based on a $260 budget in which you will attempt to fill out a 25 man roster. That breaks down to $10.4 per slot but do not fill your rosters out with 25 players worth $10 each. Here's how I will be breaking down my spending this season:

2 Starting Pitchers from this list - Between $30 and $453 other Starting Pitchers - Between $15 and $204 Closers - Between $15 and $205 Top 60 Hitters - Between $75 and $906 Upside Hitters - Between $60 and $705 Late Round Flyers - Between $10 and $20

Don't feel like you have to stick to this regardless of what other people do. If you have the chance to draft a third Starting Pitcher from that list at a low price, go for it. Don't let my advice hold you back, just make sure you make a counter-pick later on to ensure your pitching spending doesn't affect the way you buy hitters.

Conclusion

So in conclusion, I want you to draft balance hitters in the early rounds by using my Top 200 Rankings. Once my sub-elite pitchers start being selected make it a point to draft two of them. After you've completed the first ten rounds with a balanced mix of Infielders and Outfielders start going after other starting pitchers like the ones I mentioned above. Sometime between the 13th and 15th rounds start selecting Closers. You should be okay if you finish your draft with three of the Closers I mentioned. When you get to the final rounds focus on one-category studs who will help you reach my target numbers.

Upon completion of your drafts do not make any major moves unless you feel they are extremely beneficial to your long term goals. Remember, there's no need to overreact to your draft between draft day and March 22nd (first regular season game). I try to never make any major roster moves until Memorial Day at the earliest. Make sure you give your hitters about 150 at bats and your pitchers at least 8 starts before you ditch them; unless a great trade offer comes your way.

If you want more information take a look at some of my other preseason articles:

In last year's Draft Guide I talked about relationships and how becoming a house husband to a celebrity is my ultimate life goal. This year I'll continue with the relationship theme, but this time I'm going to give some advice to my younger readers.

Don't worry guys, no girl out there will be reading this. I mean if there is a girl out there that actually clicked on this article - there's no way they stuck around until the end. All those numbers and stats would have scared off even the nerdiest of female sports fans.

So here's some relationship advice:

Never tell a woman to "relax". - They will go off on you. Not saying I've had personal experience with this, but I've witnessed some strong men get shutdown by a woman after they drop the "relax" bomb on them.

Know that women always believe they're right. - Swallow your pride and just let them believe they're actually right. And for the love of God, when they realize they were wrong DO NOT EVER tell them "I told you so". Even though they are allowed to say it to you whenever they want.

Most women think they can change you. - Let them win the small battles. If they try to get you to stop playing Fantasy Baseball, dump them.

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Don't be insecure. - Care but don't care at the same time. Ya, it doesn't make sense to me either.

A majority of women like it when a man takes charge. - Be bossy but not saucy. From my experiences, women hate it when guys brag about themselves. No matter how awesome I am.

That's all I have for now...

If you have any Fantasy Baseball questions feel free to post them in the comment section below. If you have any questions about relationships, ask someone else - I'm not that guy.

Thanks for sticking around. I'm currently involved in a fundraiser for the Special Olympics. Here's a link for you all to click on so that you may donate some money. Please enter my name in the box "Alex Wiesner" and donate as much as you feel is necessary. I run this website free of charge so it would be great if you could throw a few bucks in for a good cause. I really appreciate all the help!