Why Brown's meeting with gun owners was a big deal

If Scott Brown becomes the next United States Senator from New Hampshire his appearance in front of a skeptical audience of gun rights enthusiasts Tuesday night could likely be a major reason why.

The fact that Brown was asked, agreed to attend and survived the regular monthly meeting of the Gun Owners of New Hampshire meeting in Concord might be one of the most pivotal things the Brown campaign will ever do this year.

In the last two decades in the state, a Republican can win their party’s nomination even if they disagree with their party’s base on a whole host of issues like abortion, marijuana legalization, gay marriage, immigration, national security and the environment. But there are two issues that local Republicans cannot be “wrong” about: they cannot believe in tax increases or anything perceived to hurt the Second Amendment.

This is why Brown having a gun problem is a big deal. He has supported a federal assault weapons ban in the past. And as a Massachusetts Republican he never had to worry about his own party’s base, but grabbing enough independents. The political dynamic is different in New Hampshire.

For an hour and 38 minutes Tuesday night, Brown took criticism on the chin. He showed up with a blue oxford shirt, jeans and a jacket. By the end of the night his jacket was off, sweat came to his forehead, and his sleeves were rolled up.

Nearly every one of the 100 who attended the meeting was either as a Brown skeptic or political enemy. Where there 40 Brown protesters outside the event? Yes. Where there people inside the event hostile? You bet. Did one person leave in disgust saying “He never gives a straight answer on anything.” Sure. Did a person sitting directly behind Brown’s wife, Gail Huff, mutter insults under his breath so often that she couldn’t take it anymore and publicly confronted him? This happened.

Brown knew this going in, but he wasn’t here to win primary voters. This was a general election play.

Unlike in Massachusetts, the electoral path to victory is different in New Hampshire. For Republicans to win they must first lock down their Republican base and then win over a simple majority of independent voters.

Brown is well versed in his pitch to independents, but the latest polling shows he has work to do with Republicans. In the WMUR Granite State Poll last month just 66 percent of conservatives said they could support Brown in a head-to-head matchup with Shaheen. Shaheen, meanwhile, had the support of 74 percent of liberals.

What Brown was trying to do in Concord was set a marker for the general election. Should he win the nomination he needs this group to back him over Shaheen or at least not get in the way. This could be particularly important if Bob Smith loses the nomination and decides to run write-in campaign like he did in 2002.

After all, Kelly Ayotte had her own problems with Second Amendment supporters when she ran for the U.S. Senate in 2010. It was this group who eventually had her back.

If Brown had simply blew off this group as hopeless, it he could have blown off his chances at winning in November. It's that simple.

The interesting thing is that the event even went better for Brown. This was about the general election, but he did at least make a few people go from “no way” to “hmm” on voting for Brown in the primary.

For example, when Craig White rode in his motorcycle from Raymond for the meeting he thought he might end up voting for Bob Smith again. His mother was a big volunteer for Smith in the past. But now?

“[Brown] did a lot to move me in his direction,” White said.

Scott Newton of Concord said he thought the whole meeting was “excellent.”

“Look do I think [Brown] knows what an assault weapon is? No, I don’t. But I give him credit for being here and not writing us off,” said Newton. “I might be different from other folks at the meeting because I believe we need a viable candidate and Brown is viable.”

This is not to suggest this was the uniform vibe of the event. It certainly was not. The vast majority of that room will not be voting for Brown in the primary. But whether they will in the general is the question that Brown went a long way in answering Tuesday night.