The U.S. labor market improved further in July, as the unemployment rate dipped to a 16-year low and 209,000 jobs were added to the economy. Among major asset categories, global equities marched higher—with particularly impressive gains witnessed internationally—while high yield credit continued to post solid returns. In real assets, crude oil’s price rebound during the month served as a tailwind to energy-related asset categories, such as master limited partnerships.

The Fed hiked interest rates at their June meeting and provided details regarding an eventual shrinking of their balance sheet. Despite a growing backdrop of waning marginal monetary support, the second quarter saw strong gains across international developed and emerging market equities, as well as solid performance from high-quality fixed income sectors, while energy-related assets suffered.

Domestic equities continued their post-U.S. presidential election rally, notching a small, single-digit advance in the second quarter of 2017. A decline in the U.S. dollar combined with some positive economic data and hope for stability in the European Union helped boost international developed stocks, which advanced more than 6%. Emerging market equities also continued to advance, posting a second quarter return of over 6% as well. Bonds rallied as the yield curve flattened. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate bond index ended the quarter up nearly 11/2%. Click here to read.

Following the U.S. presidential election in November 2016, inflation expectations spiked, presumably in response to heightened prospects for fiscal spending at this late point in the business cycle. This macro theme carried over into early 2017,with 10-year break-even inflation expectations, for example, increasing to a localized high of 2.1% on January 26, 2017.Click here to read.

While traveling to Monaco is an exciting opportunity, severe flight turbulence is not. This phenomenon might be bearable for the well-prepared locals, but few on our flight enjoyed the trip over the Alps from Zurich, Switzerland to Nice, France. Similar to the flight, the European investment landscape also may offer some exciting opportunities, but not without some turbulence along the way. Click here to read.

Looking back, volatility and uncertainty appeared elevated at each of the past two year-ends. These elevated levels now appear to be the norm. Furthermore, based on year-end letters from a number of prominent investors, no one seems to have a clear read on the current environment—although most profess a cautious optimism, tempered by a new volatility factor for political leadership. Despite the uncertainty, 2016 ended with an optimistic bang. Our most recent figures are through September 30, and don’t include a generally positive fourth quarter. Click here to read.

U.S. real GDP growth cooled to 0.7% during the first three months The advance estimate of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed that for the first three months of 2017, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the U.S. economy expanded at a quarter-over-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of just 0.7%. While the 0.7% rate was well below fourth quarter 2016’s 2.1% rate, it was modestly higher than the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow™ model estimate, which, as of the day before the release of the report, was estimating quarterly growth at a paltry 0.2% pace. Click here to read.

To make better investment decisions, one must first explore decision-making. The study of decision-making is vast, and can provide insights on success by leaving the crowd from some peculiar places. If one were to believe Hollywood and a long history of police reports, it’s clear that leaving the Mob can be a fairly difficult and dangerous endeavor; however, success in leaving the Mob can clearly improve one’s life. The first step to making better investment decisions is an exploration into decision-making. Click here to read.

Given the contribution that investment returns can make to a healthcare organization’s top-line, one would expect healthcare systems to pay great attention to their investment programs. But when you survey the healthcare system landscape, it seems investment management capabilities can be an afterthought, especially in smaller organizations. How is it that sophisticated and complex organizations such as these come to underinvest and fail to realize the full potential that investment management holds for their organization? Click here to read.

Nonfarm payrolls slumped in March as the headline unemployment rate improved to a post-Global Financial Crisis low. Additionally, consumer price inflation spiked to a five-year high during the quarter. The cycle low in the unemployment rate and a multi-year high in inflation are both expected to provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with sufficient support to further hike rates this year. The March Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report showed that the U.S. economy added 98,000 (net) new jobs during the month. Click here to read.

U.S. equities ended the first quarter of 2017 with a positive return despite negative performance in March. The S&P 500 posted a mid-single-digit advance, while small cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 Index trailed their large cap brethren with a low, single-digit gain. The fixed income sector, as represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, bounced back after losses in the fourth quarter of last year to end the first quarter with a small gain. Click here to read.

The Federal Open Market Committee held a scheduled two-day meeting on March 14 and 15, at which the Fed decided to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and comments indicated plans for a total of three rate hikes in 2017 remain in place. Growing sentiment for tighter Fed policy over the quarters ahead has been driven by several key factors, including rebounding inflationary expectations, soaring consumer and business confidence, elevated valuations across many “risky” asset sectors, and accelerating realized inflation—among others. Click here to read.

January witnessed the release of the advance estimate of fourth quarter 2016 U.S. GDP, which showed that economic growth cooled during the last three months of the year. Additionally, the U.S. dollar took a breather during the month after surging during the fourth quarter 2016. Real GDP growth eased in fourth quarter 2016 to 1.9%, in spite of a strong contribution from consumption. A strengthening USD during the quarter helped to serve as a drag on the net-export component of aggregate GDP. GDP growth remains susceptible to bouts of USD strength. Click here to read.

Just because someone is “experienced” does not necessarily mean they are wise. You have to actually learn from the past to develop wisdom. One of my old football coaches in Alabama said to me: “Hindsight is 50-50,” meaning looking back is still not perfect and it never will be. There have been at least nine severe crises that have occurred while I was serving as a fiduciary and portfolio manager that have given credence to coach’s advice. You can look backward and note what you “should” have done differently, but there are an infinite number of variables that affect each outcome. Learn from your experiences, but always while facing forward. Click here to read.

In early 2016, the pendulum of credit market sentiment, which swings between fear and greed, had clearly gone in the direction of fear. The fear was predominantly due to the energy sector, and markets questioning whether the fear would continue or swing back toward greed. A year later, we have our answer; the fear lost momentum and the pendulum swung back towards greed. Now we have our answer; the fear lost momentum and the pendulum swung back towards greed. The return of greed in 2016 provided the fifth highest calendar year return for high yield since 1986. Click here to read.

The fourth quarter of 2016 was eventful, with Donald Trump’s surprise U.S. Presidential election victory in November and an interest rate hike enacted by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. U.S. equities rallied following the Trump victory on expectations of potential forthcoming corporate tax relief and regulatory reform. The S&P 500 Index ended the quarter with a mid-single-digit gain and closed the year up over 11%. Click here to read.

Looking back, volatility and uncertainty appeared elevated at each of the past two year-ends. These elevated levels now appear to be the norm. Furthermore, based on year-end letters from a number of prominent investors, no one seems to have a clear read on the current environment—although most profess a cautious optimism, tempered by a new volatility factor for political leadership. Despite the uncertainty, 2016 ended with an optimistic bang. Our most recent figures are through September 30, and don’t include a generally positive fourth quarter. Click here to read.

ecember was a key month in the evolution of U.S. monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the first time in a year and provided guidance for three additional rate hikes to take place throughout 2017. Additionally, the U.S. labor market witnessed modest improvement across most key labor market factors, but experienced a modest tick higher in the headline unemployment rate. Click here to read.

Since the waning hours of November 8 when it was becoming clear that Donald Trump would win the U.S. Presidential election, investment markets have been reacting in occasionally volatile and unexpected ways. What does the future hold for a Trump Presidency? Should a long-term oriented investment portfolio be modified to capture new opportunities or avoid impending risks? Click here to read.

November provided an abundance of headline-grabbing market events, the most notable of which being president-elect Trump’s November 8th victory, an event that is discussed in greater detail in the FEG Insight: The Implications of a Trump Presidency. In addition to the election surprise, outsized moves in currencies and interest rates demanded investors’ attention during the month, as did the U-3 headline unemployment rate improving to a cyclical low of 4.6%. Click here to read.

U.S. economic growth witnessed a much-needed rebound during the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). During the quarter, the BEA estimates the U.S. economy grew at a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-over-quarter rate of 2.9%, compared to rates of 1.4% in the second quarter and 0.8% in the first quarter of 2016, respectively. Click here to read.

Amidst a backdrop of continued interest rate declines, global equity and fixed income securities generally posted positive returns in the third calendar quarter of 2016. Emerging market equities were the market’s strongest performers, posting a return in excess of 10% for the three months ending September. The U.S. dollar slipped, supporting U.S. investors’ unhedged equities in developed countries. Click here to read.