Top 10 MVP candidates

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There’s no point looking beyond quarterbacks and running backs when you’re trying to predict who will win the NFL’s most valuable player award.

Since dominant defensive Giant Lawrence Taylor ran away with the MVP award in 1986, it’s been either a passer or a ball-carrier taking home the hardware. Quarterbacks also have won it in 11 of the past 15 seasons, with Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson (in 2012) being the exemplary exceptions.

Peyton Manning, last year’s winner, is going for his sixth, five years after he got his record fourth. Will he repeat, and if not, who does Sporting News like better in 2014?

Rodgers won the award following up his Super Bowl MVP in 2011 on the strength of 4,643 yards and 45 touchdowns, with only six interceptions. He’s consistently the game’s most efficient (see also best) quarterback when healthy.

We know he’ll put up big numbers over 16 games, but so will the other two quarterbacks right behind him in this race. Presuming they all will lead their teams to division titles and strong playoff positions, it will come down to who takes care of the ball the best. Rodgers has upgraded weapons to raise the big plays and lower the mistakes again. He is Sporting News’ official pick to win 2014 MVP.

Brees has been trying to break through for his first MVP. He has had the numbers to do so several times, including in his best season, 2012. He’s got other accolades, including offensive player of the year and Super Bowl MVP. This one’s just been more elusive because of his elite competition.

Looking at New Orleans’ remixed offense, Brees should round back into his ’12 form with a needed cutdown in turnovers. The Saints as a whole haven’t looked like such a complete team since their ’09 championship run. If they can put up the best record in the NFC over powers such as Seattle, San Francisco and Green Bay, Brees would have his strongest cast yet.

Manning has one for the thumb, and is in unprecedented territory as he tries to start working on the other hand. Thankfully, his arm is still strong enough to help matters. At 38, he’s coming off his best-ever season.

We don’t expect Manning to break his own records, considering before his 55 TDs in 2013, he had topped 40 only once (a then-record 49 in ‘04). The Broncos also should be a better running team and defensive improvements won’t require him to keep stepping on the gas as much. With Emmanuel Sanders in and Eric Decker out, the great stats will still be there; it just may be in the vein of his ’12 debut with Denver (4,659, 37, 11).

He’s the No. 1 back on the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. McCoy is coming off his most explosive season yet with 2,146 yards from scrimmage. Somehow that came with only 11 combined TDs. We know from his past, however, that he’s capable of hitting 20 scores.

Now that he’s well versed in Chip Kelly’s offense, the running and receiving should come a lot easier for Shady. He still “cuts on a dime” better than anyone else in the NFL. The addition of Darren Sproles will be a supplement to McCoy’s numbers, not a detriment to them. If anything, it would keep McCoy’s fast legs a little fresher to reel off more of his trademark chunk runs. McCoy is a real threat to those three QBs.

Brady was the only other player to get MVP votes in Peyton Manning’s near unanimous selection of 2013. We get the familiar tune: The Patriots keep changing receivers and offenses, and he still wins games and stays clean even when his pass protection is struggling.

Brady won for his astronomical numbers in 2007 and ’10, but otherwise, he hasn’t been a contender. It’s not a bad thing. The Patriots are at their best when they’re complete and not leaning so much on Brady.

Their defense and running game can take more pressure off him in ’14. If you recall, when Brady was winning his Super Bowl MVPs, he wasn’t putting up the stats tied with regular-season MVPs. Still, he’s Brady, and he can be no lower than fifth in this race.

The Colts have had a lot of issues the past two seasons. Their defense has tried to come together in Chuck Pagano’s 3-4 system, but other than Robert Mathis, that’s taken some time to take effect. Their running game disappeared because of injuries last season, even more so after trading for Trent Richardson.

Guess who had to save the day often just to get them to the playoffs? Luck’s old-school gunslinging and mental toughness has gotten them through much adversity, including his occasional big struggles on the road. The furious rally to upend the Chiefs in the playoffs was a prime example of that. Indianapolis still needs him to do a lot, and it’s a good thing he can still get a lot better.

Don’t be fooled by the value associated with the contract extension he just got. If Kaepernick wants to see a lot of that, he needs to deliver at an MVP level. He knows that, the Niners know that, and they’ll give him that chance by expanding his passing repertoire. Running and defense has been the foundation of San Francisco, but it will tilt more toward the quarterback this season.

The Niners can’t completely take away his scrambling, but they can also tailor more to the style of an athletic QB who won two MVPs for them: Steve Young.

If Kap becomes the captain the 49ers expect when they paid him that way, he should prove he’s worthy of being “most valuable” beyond his team.

Peterson has had plenty of top-flight success before Norv Turner. With Turner, who has worked with former MVPs Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson over the years, there’s hope he’ll get a chance to be an even more complete back (that’s possible).

The Vikings should lean on Peterson more with the potential of playing a rookie often at quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater. He should be involved as a receiver more than most years, and his power running is the key to setting up Turner’s downfield passing game to some speedy targets. It took Peterson breaking 2,000 yards rushing to get his first MVP. He’ll need that many from scrimmage to get involved in the race again.

Wilson should have been seen more as a MVP contender during his first two, very similar stellar seasons. He had 26 TDs passes in each, reducing his interceptions from 10 to nine in 2013 while raising his efficiency from 100.0 to 101.2.

What hurts Wilson is the fact he won’t need to put up any standout numbers for the Seahawks. They’re too good defensively and too strong running the ball, so he’s not involved much in shootouts. He is boosted a bit by his rushing total, but fair or not, it’s still hard for the voters to consider him as a QB if his combined TD total isn’t close to 40.

Brandon Marshall pumped up his quarterback, Jay Cutler, as an MVP just recently, and although we didn’t think that idea was preposterous, Marshall did name the wrong teammate.

Forte trailed only Jamaal Charles (35.3) and was tied with LeSean McCoy (30.8) in how much of his team’s offense he accounted for last season. Since he arrived in Chicago, he’s somehow been underrated for how indispensable he is.

He just happened to hit another gear in Marc Trestman's offense geared to his all-purpose versatility. Forte has a good chance to crack 2,000 scrimmage yards and build on his 12 TDs, which tied a career high. For a darkhorse candidate, Forte is a strong one, as his surname would suggest.