Statistician, ESCAP Statistics Division

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1 Statistician, ESCAP Statistics DivisionBridging economic statistics with people: A role for alternative sources of data?Zeynep Orhun GirardStatistician, ESCAP Statistics DivisionIAOS, Danang Viet Nam9 October, 2014DISCLAIMER: The views presented here are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the views and position of the United Nations.

3 “We can analyze the data without hypotheses about what it might show“We can analyze the data without hypotheses about what it might show. We can throw the numbers into the biggest computing clusters the world has ever seen and let statistical algorithms find patterns science cannot. […] Correlation supersedes causation, and science can advance even without coherent models, unified theories, or really any mechanistic explanation at all”.Chris AndersonEditor of Wired Magazine

4 For official statistics to extract value from alternative sources of data like Big data1) It has to be guided closely by statistical policy2) with the goal of filling actual methodological and data gaps in different domains of statistics

5 Methodological/policy developments are guiding economic statisticsMacroeconomic statistical frameworks are constantly updated, e.g. SNA3 key policy-related initiatives are shaping the future of economics statisticsSSF Commission ReportFive recommendations on material wellbeingFollow-up work on disparities in national accounts, distribution of Household Income, Consumption and Wealth (OECD)Recommendations on Sectoral and Other Financial and Economic DatasetsData revolution for targeted policy makingMeasurement of progress on sustainable development that complement GDP (SGD17)- Input-Output analysis- First econometric model of business cycle and the General Theory- Report on measurement of national income and the construction of social accountsSNA published- Allowed for national statistical policies, recommended IOT and constant prices- Introduced satellite accounts- Some non-market production in production boundary- Concept of employment introduced in the sub-sectoring of household sector- Use of PPPs for international comparison- Balance sheets and SAMs- Chapter on informal aspects of economy193619471952196819932008G-20 Data Gaps InitiativePost-2015 development agendaWe have witnessed a move towards an integrated approach to statistics and an emphasis of the household perspective and the distributional aspects of economic activity

6 Big Data: 3 v’s yes but not only…Exhaustiveness in scope (n=all)GranularityIndexical in identificationRelationalFlexible in fields and scalable in size

9 Common points of these studiesCompare aggregate trends of online search data against official/administrative statisticsEmphasize correlation rather than causalityFind that that online search data can predict observed trends within the appropriate lead time (depends on the individuals and area of economic statistics)

14 Challenges: Big data in official statisticsShift from planned data collection activitiesPossible mismatch between what big data can offer and what the economic policy makers need (comprehensiveness and comparability)Privacy of individuals and confidentiality of dataLack of code of conduct covering all stakeholders (public and private)

15 Opportunities: Big data in official statisticsIn the policy context we live in we need to integrate different data sourcesAlternative sources of data can respond to such needs (exhaustive, relational, flexible and scalable)Maintaining TRUST of individuals is key“Fifty-four per cent of global consumers indicated that they would be comfortable with the use of information about them if they believed that the uses would not embarrass them, damage their interests, or otherwise harm them”(BCG Global Consumer Sentiment Survey 2013)

16 Conclusions Big data to complement official statisticsConduct research for innovative statistics development;Provide quality insights through data confrontation and;Enhance availability of data by closing data gaps.Statistical policy & actual methodological and data gaps need to guide big data research to allow for meaningful results that can be usedBig data has a potential role to bring in the distributional and household aspect to economic statistics

17 Next steps?Multiply the number of proposals embedded in methodological and data needsConduct studies with official and private sources of data