"VAMPIRES ARE RUNNING AMOK IN THE VILLAGE OF MYSTICAL CYNICISM. THERE'S AT LEAST 5 CULT LEADERS, MAYBE MORE. HELP US PLEASE SEND AID-"

The television cuts to a stage.

"We interrupt the previous urgent news announcement to bring you your favourite totally fictional and in no way dangerous or banned in most countries, TV show. When last we joined our motley cast, they'd just ran one of their members through with a gigantic crossbow. Let's quickly see how a few of them are feeling going forward shall we?"

"I'LL KILL THEM ALL""I'm starting to think that my lover is a wolf. Is it wrong that this only makes me love him more?""GET ON WITH IT"

As the Host walks onward to interview another contestant, a lithe figure pounces on him and drags him to the floor. It is Rictus. He is not armed, but the look in his eyes tells the Host that he doesn't need to be.

"I know you're going to kill him. I can't allow that. Omega is all I have left. How about this deal instead. I agree not to kill you, and you settle for just taking my life. You let my Omega walk away. You get me instead. How's about that? Don't rush, don't hurry, think it through, think it through. I'm cutting you a fair deal aren't I? Or should I cut something else?"

As much as the Host stutters in agreement, Rictus does not let up. He begins slowly, and maybe accidentally, wringing the life out of the Host."You won't take my love, you won't take my love, you won't take my love" he chants in a slow and steady ominous rhythm.

As people begin to take note of Rictus' hysteria, Omega rushes to the front. He is already being shadowed by two stage-hands, who appear ready to lynch him.

"Beloved no, they will not make murderers of us. Leave the imbecile alive. We will not let them bring us down to their level. Let go of the Host. They'll let us both live, you'll see, they know that we really truly love each other. Take my hand beloved, walk away with me"

Rictus, twitching, lets go of the Host. The cold body drops to the floor. It is too late. Seeing this, the stage-hands quickly lunge towards Rictus. Daggers have appeared in both of their hands. But Omega whirls in time to catch both daggers, one in his hand disarming an attacker, and one in his chest. "Run you fool. I'll hold them off." But Omega is not holding anyone off, much less lady death, and he crumples to the floor, his final gaze upon the dagger in his chest.

Rictus, howling his entirely human heart out, finally snaps and flies over the body of his lover at the two recovering stage-hands. This is not something they have been trained to deal with. This is not something anyone anywhere could ever be trained to deal with. All three fall in a pile of blood, daggers and rage, never to get back up. Their deaths are fast.

Omega was lynched. He was a Lover.Rictus has died of a broken heart. He was a Lover.This is about the time in a TV series or movie where the good guys usually suffer a major setback, and so everyone agrees they must both have been Human aligned.

MEM votes for FurinMiradoFurinMirado votes for OmegaStigmata votes for HellheartRyvvn votes for HellheartHellheart votes for ZarkSphenodont votes for OmegaGriffypoo votes for FurinmiradoRave votes for ZarkICB votes for HellheartRictus votes for FurinmiradoZark votes for FurinmiradoHellheart votes for FurinMiradoFurinMirado votes for HellheartAdmetus votes for OmegaHellheart votes for OmegaZark votes for OmegaFurinMirado votes for OmegaOmega votes for FurinMirado

(( So obviously I'm never sacrificing myself here if I'm a wolf, but I can see the way the thread consensus was going and I'd rather die as a human and create a confirmed human lovers' pair rather than try to fight and let all 3 of us die. ))

I really don't agree that it's a good idea. You aren't even creating a confirmed anything pair, since you can't say the other one's name. The sociopath would kill them. You're just hastening the end by allowing a human to die unanswered and with no vote trail behind it.

Losing a human-human pair last night sucks, but I think all of the options at the last half hour or so might have been human-human.

I'm going to put my vote on Meta4, which is what I would have wanted to do if I didn't feel the need to avoid losing FurinMirado and Hellheart when I finished my long post with less than 10 minutes to EOD.

In the defense-of-rekard day, he pushed DOM out in front early, making DOM a dominant wagon when rekard was starting to gather votes. Other notes about that breakdown are in yesterday's thread near the end.

Also, I don't like those charts. They treat any vote the same, except whether the person turned out to be wolf or human in the end. Avoiding 100% votes-on-human is wolf 101. No wolf is going to fail that test. An early vote, a late vote, a singleton vote, a deciding vote, they're all the same on Meta4's chart. In the temporal game I consciously ignored what I thought was flimsy reasoning and harmful decision-making because I didn't want to be insulting, and it turned out I was willfully ignoring a wolf. So I'm not going to do that again.

All Humans on Omega3 Humans and 1 Wolf (Griffypoo) on FurinMirado2 Humans and 1 Wolf (Ryvvn or Stigmata) on Hellheart1 Wolf (Ravebomb) on Zark1 Human (Meta4) on Griffypoo (assuming my theory about Griff being a Wolf is correct)

And 1 Wolf that failed to vote. Blindsniper, dferrantino, Mortus and Wasabi all failed to vote.

Ryvvn wrote:In the event that the Macho Man is just, ya know, continuing to lie his wolfy ass off; I'm keeping my vote on, Hellheart, in case the Scorned's play is a whiff.

(( This makes no sense. If Sphenodont is not my lover he would just claim that he isn't, and then I die. Otherwise, he always is my lover, which means that if I don't die to the Scorned Lover it only means that the Scorned Lover has stopped playing.

What kind of game are you trying to play here, Ryvvn?

I'm serious. Why are you tunneling so hard? Why are you having trouble following the roles and rules in this game? ))

Admetus wrote:I really don't agree that it's a good idea. You aren't even creating a confirmed anything pair, since you can't say the other one's name. The sociopath would kill them. You're just hastening the end by allowing a human to die unanswered and with no vote trail behind it.

(( People are just going to look at my vote record and the number of greens that voted for me on Day 1 and forget that two of them were the pair that tried to save themselves by killing me. They'll look at my voting record and forget that two of those votes are votes I had to make to save myself rather than votes that I would prefer to take. Both Ryvvn and Stigmata are hard-tunneled on me - Sphenodont tried to sway Ryvvn and he wouldn't budge at all. The safest thing to do for my lovers is just to sacrifice myself. You cannot pretend that after Omega reveals as Human/Human that I am ANYTHING other than the leading lynch today. Them's the breaks, and if I don't declare immediately then we risk killing 3 humans for no reason.

I have no reason to believe that either of my lovers are currently under wolf suspicion. This should be obvious, since if one of them were that would be the lover I would name. A Vengeful Wolf would kill the three of us anyway, so the only thing this does is severely reduce the chances that my lovers die by eliminating what seems to be the consensus lynch target today. ))

I'm willing to put that theory to the test, Furin. And I think I'm going to discount the rest of your analysis for right now, since you've been "phoning it in."

If I'm wrong, though, the rest of it can be considered.

(The analysis post alone doesn't warrant a vote, but I've been suspicious of you for 3 days now, and the EOD flurry was just too convenient. I don't know how coordinated this was, but 2.5 suspicious characters all moved to take out a human... yeah. I hope you understand.)

Here's the vote analysis including day 5. Ice Cold Burrito pointed out that it isn't necessarily fair to count a "No Vote" with the same weight as a vote for a human. I was counting "No Votes" as being negative because they negatively impact the game and continuous missed votes make it damn hard to perform meaningful vote analysis.

That said, I've updated the tally to include a breakdown of missed votes, votes for humans, and votes for wolves. The last two columns show a tally of bad votes either including missed votes (w/ NVs) or excluding them (w/o NVs).

"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

I'm willing to put that theory to the test, Furin. And I think I'm going to discount the rest of your analysis for right now, since you've been "phoning it in."

If I'm wrong, though, the rest of it can be considered.

(The analysis post alone doesn't warrant a vote, but I've been suspicious of you for 3 days now, and the EOD flurry was just too convenient. I don't know how coordinated this was, but 2.5 suspicious characters all moved to take out a human... yeah. I hope you understand.)

Admetus wrote:Also, I don't like those charts. They treat any vote the same, except whether the person turned out to be wolf or human in the end. Avoiding 100% votes-on-human is wolf 101. No wolf is going to fail that test. An early vote, a late vote, a singleton vote, a deciding vote, they're all the same on Meta4's chart. In the temporal game I consciously ignored what I thought was flimsy reasoning and harmful decision-making because I didn't want to be insulting, and it turned out I was willfully ignoring a wolf. So I'm not going to do that again.

Keep in mind the chart isn't intended to replace vote analysis. As you said, it doesn't (and can't reasonably) take into account early or late votes, "wasted" votes, etc.

Your point about wolves avoiding 100% votes on humans is valid, but it again misses the value of the chart. Eventually, if wolves want to win, they're going to have to vote for some humans. By the end game (e.g. days 6-10 or so), I've found the chart to begin demonstrating the difference between a wolf's tendency to vote for humans and the random chance that a human will inadvertently vote for a string of humans. Unless a wolf is going to be entirely ineffective or a human has god-awful luck, the numbers should eventually show some truth. At the very least, it will force the wolves to be far more cautious with their votes, and time is a valuable asset for humans.

"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

At the start of the game, I told them I was a human normal lover and asked them if they had a wolf or a special role; both of them answered on Day 1 that they were normal human lovers. Neither lover knew I was a bigamist until Day 4, so if one of them is a wolf and paying attention they're going to reveal themselves by Day 2 and guide me when I push people. So, you know, I never actually run into this situation.

I can't talk about both of my lovers in detail, but I am dead certain that sphenodont is human for the above reason, and I'm going to give him everything I have and my thoughts about my other lover. ))

I'm willing to put that theory to the test, Furin. And I think I'm going to discount the rest of your analysis for right now, since you've been "phoning it in."

If I'm wrong, though, the rest of it can be considered.

(The analysis post alone doesn't warrant a vote, but I've been suspicious of you for 3 days now, and the EOD flurry was just too convenient. I don't know how coordinated this was, but 2.5 suspicious characters all moved to take out a human... yeah. I hope you understand.)

(( I had a binary choice between what I felt were two humans, so I had to move on to the tiebreaker: their lovers.

1) Admetus' reasoning for Furin not being a wolf made a lot of sense, and I don't think non-participation is a good wolf argument ever. I don't see any potential influence on Furin from a wolf lover.

2) I felt Omega was right about being human, but he never said a thing about his lover. His Day 2 vote also makes sense if he has a wolf lover that urged him to make that vote. Thus, I thought that Omega was more likely to have a wolf lover than FurinMirado. ))

Don't argue with me. As I said before, I invented the role. These are my mechanics. ))

We get it

(( Remember that bit I had in the F5 thread about not taking what I do in this game personally?

The rolleyes is going too far here. Don't be a dick. ))

*emphasis mine

(( If you're trying to highlight this as an in-game specific tactic, then you have to explain what benefit you think the humans will gain from your antagonizing and distracting an almost certain human.

If not today, you'll have to do it tomorrow. I have one day to do meaningful analysis and you are getting in my way. ))

sorry guys found out today we get a 14hr shift once a week (yay automotive repair shops having courtsy hours for ppl who work, and then found out Today ((Wednesday)) is mine, so im posting now after dinner and shower, and making a vote for Furin Mirado my no votes are killing my rep, but we all know my voting history is crap most games so figure me as voting on humans 7/10 times cause my analsyis is weak

RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

Hellheart wrote:(( If you're trying to highlight this as an in-game specific tactic, then you have to explain what benefit you think the humans will gain from your antagonizing and distracting an almost certain human.

If not today, you'll have to do it tomorrow. I have one day to do meaningful analysis and you are getting in my way. ))

Here's how I see it

you threw a wild accusation my way because you felt the PM I sent you was "odd" and attempted to steer votes onto me, which the next day you admitted was probably wrong

meanwhile you have the worst voting record of the game and you know it and have claimed a role that puts the most amount of threat on the humans if they want to believe that lynching you is the incorrect choice

I can't speak for Stigmata's reasoning, but I'm tunneling you because I absolutely do not trust you

I still think you're a wolf bigamist with one human and one wolf lover, and so I'm not sure how you revealing spheno as a lover makes a better case for you, it just seems that you have been under threat and having the Scorned target you and spheno only kills wolf you and still saves your other wolf lover

and yes, spheno had been in contact with me, but I specifically told him via PM that I would be unavailable for the rest of the evening leading up to EoD last night, yet you still tried to get my attention in the thread, why(?)

finally, while you didn't seem in as much lynch danger heading into EoD yesterday, there were still two days of final rushes that did keep you out of any potentially threatening situation.

Last edited by Ryvvn on 20 Nov 2013, 21:28:17, edited 1 time in total.

(( Your points don't matter. Your reasons don't matter. I got my answer: your antagonism was specifically confined to the game, so while it was not specifically a ploy it is certainly a stance you have purposely taken.

That's all I need. Thank you for that, it very much solidifies my read on you.

EDIT: And yes, that means I was just putting you on with this last exchange. Fun stuff!

EDIT2: I did not mean for this to come off as smug as it does. This is more for the rest of the thread rather than you specifically. ))

Would the other players please take note that Hellheart, the guy who asks everyone to defend themselves, is refusing to acknowledge my reasoning against him, reasoning he just recently said I would need to provide

Would the other players please take note that Hellheart, the guy who asks everyone to defend themselves, is refusing to acknowledge my reasoning against him, reasoning he just recently said I would need to provide

(( To prove that your stance towards me was not about you taking things personally, to show that it was from events that occurred in this specific game, and to show that it had nothing to do with whether you believed I was a wolf.

Your reasons don't matter because you have been behaving differently than I expected you to behave in a Werewolf game. But a few hours ago I remembered a specific post that could give me your likely role, and I've done my best to show that the two other likely reasons for your antagonism did not apply.

I will make my full case later, as I intend to look at a lot of players tonight and I see no reason to spread my analysis out. ))

Any player I do not have listed here is 80% likely to be a villager, meaning that any role lean I have isn't significant enough to override random chance. Sphenodont may post his own reads and if they're strong enough I will post an updated version of this list before I die.

I will post per-player explanations by category, starting with the case against Ryvvn because today's interactions prior to this post make my case far better than anything else. Don't worry, I will TLDR AND spoiler most of the case against Ryvvn, and it is a very solid wolf case. All of my other explanations will wait until sometime in the afternoon, because they are all much shorter than my wolf case.

EDIT: Shifted Mortus down a level since even a "100% human" read from a confirmed human can't make Mortus a confirmed human for me.

Last edited by Hellheart on 21 Nov 2013, 02:57:22, edited 1 time in total.

TLDR: Ryvvn has been uncharacteristically antagonistic towards me since I made my wolf case for him on Day 4. He has misinterpreted mechanics, repeatedly made unlikely or flagrantly wrong statements concerning me, and if I prove that something is unlikely or wrong he repeats himself or makes a different case. He has always been level-headed as a human, even in the Star Wars game where his whole team shunned him. However, this behavior is similar to how he acted as a wolf in the Tempus Vigilantes game. I back this up with a very specific quote from the Tempus Vigilantes dead thread, but you should look at the games if you have time to see the difference.

The exchanges between us today are very telling: today is the worst he's ever been, any reasonable person knows now that I'm not a wolf, and Ryvvn himself has confirmed that his behavior is not from taking things personally.

I strongly believe that Ryvvn is a wolf. Please read the TLDR version of the case before you jump to conclusions.

I want to preface this with two points:

While my exchanges with Ryvvn prior to Day 6 had really bothered me, my feelings did not influence the contents of this wolf case.

I have a frighteningly accurate memory when it comes to things I really enjoy.

Ryvvn wrote:Hellheart, absolutely no hard feelings dude; despite how I may have come across during this game, especially toward you in the day thread, it was all theatrics. I take no offense to the way things played out, and I sincerely hope my death helps lead the wolves to a win (again, fuck you Admetus! [see earlier dead thread post]). If whatever actions you had to take help prevent suspicion on you, I'm all for it! I really enjoyed playing an antagonistic wolf this game, and if I hadn't been so worried about screwing up the team, I probably would have pushed that angle even harder at the cost of myself. Sure, I wish I could have stayed in the game longer, had a few more emotional outbursts, but it's not as if this Day 3 was actually Day 3; I definitely got a lot of game time out of this one

Ryvvn may be new to the Arstechnica WW community, but he is not new to Werewolf. He was a human in the Terry Pratchett game and The Wolfing Game and in both games he was very level-headed and reasonable, even though he felt he was wrongly lynched early in The Wolfing Game. In the Star Trek game his entire team shunned him as a puppet, yet he did not rail at them in the main thread.

He was a wolf in the Tempus Vigilantes game, and his play there was very different. The above quote is his description of how he would ideally have behaved as a wolf in that game. That is exactly how he's behaving in this game. It is a ploy, used specifically to distract and distress an analytical player in order to disrupt that player's ability to read the game and possibly even get him lynched.

Ever since I made that wolf case against Ryvvn, he has consistently and relentlessly attacked me. He has misinterpreted roles and mechanics in ways that I've never seen from him before, he has taken what I've said out of context or selectively interpreted results to make me look bad, and he has presented scenarios that range from very unlikely to completely impossible. If I show that something is unlikely or impossible, he simply repeats his accusation or accuses me of something else. He never gives me credit for anything.

Seriously, read what has transpired between us starting on Day 5, and specifically the range of cases Ryvvn has been making from the start of Day 5 until his last post. It is unreal.

There are two other possibilities that could also explain this behavior: Ryvvn could truly believe that I'm a wolf, or he could have taken what I said personally. Both of those possibilities were proven false today.

I'm a dead man walking, as I have disclosed one of my lovers. I never do this as a wolf because if I'm revealed as a wolf tomorrow, all you'll do is lynch sphenodont. Any reasonable person will come to this conclusion, but Ryvvn refuses to do so. I know both of my lovers are human and I have explained why in detail earlier in the thread, but Ryvvn refuses to accept this. Any reasonable person is capable of understanding these two points, therefore Ryvvn's behavior today cannot be the result of a reasonable belief that I am a wolf.

In an exchange with Ryvvn several hours prior to this post, the following occured: I noted that he shouldn't take what I said personally, he quoted my post back at me, I told him that he then had to explain why he would be so antagonistic towards an almost confirmed human, and he responded by listing reasons that solely involved the current game. In addition, he has never expressed hostility towards me prior to this game, so Ryvvn's behavior today cannot be the result of his taking what I've said personally.

What's left is a ploy where Ryvvn is irrationally and relentlessly aggravating in order to antagonize and distract one or more other players, something he has done as a wolf but has never done as a human. Moreover, he is on record saying that he wanted to take his prior play several steps further as a wolf, and I think his behavior this game fits that to a T.

Ryvvn also knows that I react very poorly if I feel singled out or picked on, and I do not see him doing this as a human because the potential backlash in future games if we're both human is enormous.

as I've stated previously, the ignorance Hellheart is displaying in assuming players will act consistently is now bordering on obsessive, especially if he truly believes I would act the same as a wolf as the only other time I've been one

he is taking a few misunderstandings on my part, role/rules misunderstandings and needing clarifications are not new to me this game, and trying to exaggerate them without providing actual quotes from me to avoid showing it is less severe than he is making it out to be

I've repeatedly stated that I think Hellheart is a wolf, which is why I'm tunneling him, and distracting him delays him from leading people with well reasoned false claims, as he is doing now

Hellheart keeps trying to push that he is "confirmed human" because of his actions but, and here's the important bit, if he is a wolf bigamist who is under continual threat of being lynched and he has one human lover and one wolf lover, he gives us the name of his human lover to sacrifice himself to the Scorned, thus preventing the lynched death of his wolf lover, even when he's revealed as wolf bigamist after Scorned's kill, all he's given us is the name of his human lover he then expects us to lynch, leaving his other wolf lover totally unrevealed and safe!

Hellheart is a superior player than me, on both sides of the field, I'd be insane to go toe-to-toe like this with him were I a wolf, and I guess that means he'll hold an eternal grudge against me when it's eventually revealed he can't read me for shit...

Hellhart wrote: He has always been level-headed as a human, even in the Star Wars game where his whole team shunned him.

I haven't been around as much lately as I would like. When did we have a Star Wars game?

Please tell me you aren't referring to the Star Trek game...

More in a bit,

7z7

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

I was HK-47, dferrantino was Chewbacca, it was a Star Wars game as far as I'm concerned.

Ryvvn wrote:(Bunch of points that would make this post too large)

I refuse to take your bait. I know what you're trying to do. I'll quickly address your points, starting with what seems to be your crucial point.

Pre-Post EDIT: Hey, you finally got it! I still refuse to believe that have honestly misinterpreted things that poorly.

My point is that you are acting like you have never before acted as a human or a team member. Remember the quote? That's your quote. You said yourself that it puts you in danger. If you're a human and you tunnel on a human like this, you are severely hurting your team no matter how wolfy you think the person is because you could easily be wrong. Like in this case, where you've already killed a human and you still try to throw him off his ability to analyze things.

You don't have to outplay me. You just have to kill me by making me think I was in lynch trouble, which you have done by relentlessly pushing me along with Stigmata. You've already won, now you're just trying to rub it in. I don't need people to lynch you today, I can wait until I'm revealed as a human and then they'll lynch you tomorrow.

You could just as easily be the lover of a wolf, which for all intents and purposes makes you a wolf unless your partner is snowing you. You can easily tell the truth about your own role, yet have the same hidden agenda.

I invited everybody to read your posts over the last two days to make their own conclusions, as your avatar is very distinctive. I have addressed all of your points, yet until your sudden epiphany you somehow combined the two cases you've made against me: I can't be a wolf now and neither of my lovers can be wolves unless they're insane or absent, so your next move was...I'm a wolf AND one of my lovers is a wolf.

EDIT: And you have a lot of explaining to do if both you and your lover are human. If I hadn't remembered the quote, our last exchange may have pushed me over the edge. If you're both human, I am not going to forget that for a long time.

Last edited by Hellheart on 21 Nov 2013, 05:21:01, edited 1 time in total.

I would have just edited my original counterpoints post but I'm posting from my phone this morning as I get ready and head into work. I still believe that Hellheart is simply making the only move a wolf bigamist in the situation I described can make but I'll no longer try to hard sell it, I'll just be standing on him based on my own guy feeling.

Ryvvn wrote:I would have just edited my original counterpoints post but I'm posting from my phone this morning as I get ready and head into work. I still believe that Hellheart is simply making the only move a wolf bigamist in the situation I described can make but I'll no longer try to hard sell it, I'll just be standing on him based on my own guy feeling.

A wolf bigamist in the situation you described will never sacrifice himself because it'd be the same as being lynched. You are just further illustrating my point.