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The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers are tied at two games a piece. There are a lot of
obvious things that anyone who has been watching the series will have noticed: Lebron
and Wade did crazy things in Game 4, both teams’ defenses have put on the clamps,
the shooting is down, Danny Granger will let any Heat player know when something
rubs him the wrong way, and Roy Hibbert’s size and skills are a huge advantage for
the Pacers (but his lack of speed is an advantage for the Heat).

But a look at the total series statistics shows us a few surprising tidbits. Basketball is
a game played 48 minutes at a time so we cannot look too much into these statistics,
but we have four full games of evidence to analyze now and they do give us a good
look at who is giving consistently good performances.

16 Rebounds (Chalmers) vs. 8 rebounds (Hansbrough)

Four games into this series, Mario Chalmers has doubled Tyler Hansbrough up in
rebounds grabbed. To be fair, Chalmers has played more than double the minutes of
Tyler, but does that really remove all the shock? Eight rebounds in nearly 52 minutes
over four games? Two rebounds per game? One rebound every six-and-a-half
minutes? Hansbrough has yet to have the momentum-swinging impact on a game in
this series that earned him the nickname Psycho-T.

20-for-57 FGs (Granger)

Danny Granger has been aggressive at times and made some big buckets in this
series. He has played with great effort and has had the task of guarding Lebron James
on defense. Also, no one is going to question how much he wants to win this series and
he has made 7 of his last 15 three-pointers. But the fact of the matter is that he is
shooting 35% (eFG% of 42.1%) through four games and is certainly not making up for
that with only 8 free throws attempted. (In the regular season, he shot 41.2% with an
eFG% of 48.1% while averaging 4.7 free throws per game). This might be a troubling
reminder of how dangerous it can be when your best player relies on low-percentage
shots to score.

93 points (Granger + George) vs 210 points (Lebron + Wade)

This one might not be so surprising. I don’t think anyone expected George and Granger
to match the scoring of Wade and James. But has it really seemed that lopsided for the
series? Didn’t it seem like Granger and George were playing nice defense on Wade and
James while also providing a nice scoring punch of their own? Sure, Game Four’s 70
points from Wade and James might skew this a little, but keep in mind it also factors in
a 5 point game from Wade in Game 3.

123 minutes (Hill) vs 73 minutes (Collison)

Should it really be that one-sided? Collison was the starter for most of the season,
does it make sense to minimize his role this much? I understand that you are rarely going
to give two point guards equal minutes, but if you are going to be using the “stick with the
hot hand” approach, wouldn’t Collison have more minutes in this series? Collison’s
weakness in this series is that he can only guard Mario Chalmers due to his size. Since
Chalmers starts wouldn’t it make sense to start Collison so that Hill could come in when
the Heat bring in...CONTINUE READING AT 8p9s

In another installment of the Heat Index's 3-on-3 series, our writers give their takes on
the storylines before the Heat host the Pacers in Game 5 of the East semifinals.

1. Fact or Fiction: Rest of the series will be more like Game 4 than Game 3.

Tom Haberstroh: Fiction. I'm not sure the Heat can duplicate Udonis Haslem's hot
shooting display that rescued the supporting cast in Game 4. Also, I'm no doctor but I'm
not completely sold that Dwyane Wade's knee will respond positively after Sunday. Oh,
and LeBron going 40-18-9? Probably not happening again. Expect the Pacers to be more
prepared.

Michael Wallace: Fact. Not necessarily in terms of the outcome, but more along
the lines of how closely the game was played throughout. I still don't feel comfortable
predicting who will win this series. But I'd bank on close games with vicious
momentum swings before I'd anticipate another 20-point blowout.

Brian Windhorst: Fiction. If ever there was an outlier, it was Game 4. It is
unrealistic to expect that kind of production from Wade and James every night. Also,
the Pacers got very little from David West and Roy Hibbert. Probably the most
important thing for the Heat to replicate is getting a contribution from Haslem.

2. Fact or Fiction: Wade's knee is more worrisome than LeBron's fatigue.

Haberstroh: Fiction. I'd say it's equally concerning. The minutes and responsibilities
are piling up for LeBron, even with Shane Battier as a much-needed battery in tow. The
Chris Bosh injury ruined whatever hopes that LeBron would stay fresh in the playoff run.
He admitted he was gassed in Game 4. Even though Wade had his knee drained, I wonder
how much longer LeBron can stay in fifth gear.

Wallace: Fact. Wade won't discuss the knee, but it certainly is an issue that could
affect the outcome of the series if the problems flare up again. No one knows if he will
need to have it drained again. What we do know is he overcame physical limitations and
emotional outbursts to bounce back from one of his worst postseason performances with
one of his best. Meanwhile, LeBron has been a beast all season. He'll play through fatigue.

Windhorst: Fact. It may not be a serious injury; Wade can still play, after all. But
the past week showed how much the knee can effect Wade's play. As he said, he feels
differently on different days. Without Bosh, the Heat badly need Wade's knee to stay
healthy.

3. Fact or Fiction: Frank Vogel has won the chess match so far.

Haberstroh: Fiction. After starting Dexter Pittman in Game 3, Erik Spoelstra got
showered with nation-wide blame, but I don't even think that was all that egregious. That
disaster lasted all but three minutes. Vogel has been impressive with his defensive
strategies, but the Pacers have been absolutely dreadful when he goes to the bench.
Making Hibbert and West ride the pine during crucial situations in Game 4 is on Vogel.

Wallace: Fiction. Both coaches still have their power pieces on the table and in
play. Tonight's outcome will determine the first real "check" position of this series, when
one team pushes the other to the brink of elimination. Spoelstra's Game 3 adjustments
were awful. But Vogel also produced a major head-scratcher in Game 4 when he chose
to leave Hibbert and West on the bench with four fouls a bit too long.

Windhorst: Fiction. Vogel has made some excellent moves and assembled a game
plan that's been very effective. But he made some questionable moves in Games 1 and 4.
On Sunday, it seemed like he got stuck watching the show instead of making adjustments
when the Pacers started getting run over.

Much attention was paid to what followed this Roy Hibbert foul. Dwyane Wade didn’t
like it. Danny Granger got in Wade’s face. A technical was called. Hubie admonished
Danny. A rich debate over Granger’s faketoughguyness was held in the Twitter high
court.

But I was more fixated on the foul itself than on the ensuing drama. Wade blew past
Hibbert, and the center reacted by intentionally hacking. The idea was to not cede an
easy bucket, to make Wade “earn it at the line.” Dwyane did miss one of two, so
mission accomplished, right?

“Simultaneous foul trouble to power forward David West and center
Roy Hibbert made the Pacers easier to guard on offense and far less
intimidating on defense. Those foul issues also forced coach Frank
Vogel to deal with several rotation-related dilemmas at once, including
how long to sit his big men and whether/when he should use a small
lineup with only one of the Tyler Hansbrough/Lou Amundson backup
duo that has been shaky all season.”

Before that hack, Roy Hibbert had gone nearly a whole half while accruing only one
foul. The Heat had and have no answer for him. So long as he stays on the court,
Miami appears at a disadvantage. So is getting 1/6 of the way fouled out worth the
chance that Dwyane Wade misses a free throw? Hibbert picked up a quick two fouls
in the third quarter, which sent him to the bench. When Hibbert finally came back in
the fourth quarter, he appeared tentative on plays at the rim, perhaps fearing
ignominious disqualification. What if he had been playing with three fouls instead of
four?

Beckley showed you Gregg Popovich’s mundane genius for fouling when appropriate.
The other side of this is that the Spurs are among the least fouling teams, year after
year. Fouling is usually bad. It can take your players out of the game, it can put you
closer to a penalty situation wherein the other team marches to the free throw line.
If your average free throw shooter went to the line, every possession, his team’s
offense would crush it...CONTINUE READING AT HOOPSPEAK

"Nobody wants to play against Tyler Hansbrough NO BODY!" ~ Frank Vogel

"And David put his hand in the bag and took out a stone and slung it. And it struck the Philistine on the head and he fell to the ground. Amen. "
Want your own "Just Say No to Kamen" from @mkroeger pic? http://twitpic.com/a3hmca

Need to keep the pressure on Wade. Make sure he doens't get started early on the inside and at the line. He'll be content with shooting bad jumpers if we let him. Lebron will keep putting up eye-popping stats; just keep him off the boards. If Roy and West show up, we'll be able to keep the rotation tight as everyone suggests and keep this game at a slow grind. And we need to win the third quarter!

We need Hill,Roy and West to be aggressive today if we want to win today, Danny and George need to stop losing Lebron and Wade, they were open by themselves so many times that is not even funny, and can the real Tyler Hansbrough please stand up? we need him to stop sucking, hopefully he plays out of his mind today.

I don't have a good feeling about this series now. In game four wade and born attacked Hibbert and got him in foul trouble I expect that to be our undoing. I pray to the basketball gods that I am wrong.

You know I would more than anything love for you guys to win and at least get to the finals. There's also the issue of if you fail to beat Miami, I may have to boycott the rest of the playoffs due solely to the media's lovefest for the Heat. So please win and spare me the need to stay away from any and all types of media for the duration of the playoffs.