News from the Votemaster

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), who is running for his seventh term in the Senate,
got some bad news yesterday. Sarah Palin
endorsed
his opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the May 8 primary.
Palin is a clever politician and would probably not endorse anyone so close to the election unless
she thought the endorsee was going to win, so she could claim it was her endorsement that put him
over the top. The only
recent poll
in the Mourdock-Lugar race was one sponsored by Citizens United and released last week.
It shows Mourdock ahead by 5 points. Possibly this poll is what motivated Palin to go public.
Probably she, like
much of the media (but unlike this Website) doesn't realize that polls released by campaigns are highly suspect
and shouldn't be taken seriously.
Candidates conduct legitimate polls all the time, but
the numbers they release need to be taken with a grain--no, make that a metric ton--of salt.

As if that weren't enough, a major Republican superPAC, the American Action Network, pulled the
plug on Lugar yesterday--after having spent nearly $650,000 on ads for him.
This event, coupled with Palin's endorsement, suggests that Lugar is genuinely in trouble and insiders
are starting to think that Mourdock will win.

However, those same insiders, especially the Republican establishment, should be very worried about
a Mourdock victory. The Democrats held control of the Senate in 2010 despite a Republican wave basically
due to three tea party victories in primaries. Sharron Angle in Nevada snatched defeat from the jaws
of victory, going down to a very unpopular Harry Reid. Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in
Delaware defeated former representative Mike Castle in the primary, turning a certain Republican victory into defeat
at the hands of the largely unknown Chris Coons. Finally, in Colorado, Ken Buck took down the state's Lieutenant
Governor, who was sure to beat appointed senator Michael Bennet, and handed the Democrats a Senate seat.

If Lugar survives his primary, he is virtually certain to defeat Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) in the
general election. Lugar is highly respected on both sides of the aisle as well as in Indiana.
However, if Mourdock wins the primary, a Republican win against Donnelly is far less certain. The
race could easily be a repeat of the 2010 races pitting a tea-party backed newcomer against a relatively
weak Democrat, with the Democrat winning. Adding to the mix here is the fact that unlike 2010, this year
we have a presidential election, which guarantees a greater Democratic turnout. Although President Obama
actually won Indiana in 2008, it is very unlikely he can do it again. Nevertheless, his presence on the
ticket might be enough to let Donnelly beat Mourdock. In any event, this is the race to watch leading up
to May 8.

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