Matthew Fisher: Tumultuous Egypt remains on a political journey without maps

Tumultuous Egypt remains on a political journey without maps

Covering Egypt’s political adventures and misadventures is like a journey without maps.

Tuesday, the country’s top general called for unity talks between Islamists and secularists over their irreconcilable differences over the Islamist-backed constitution. Wednesday, we were told the invitation had never actually been issued.

The opposition — a fractious hodgepodge of communists, socialists, liberals, Christians and devout moderates — spent the past week indicating it will boycott Saturday’s referendum on the draft constitution. After a lot of dithering it announced Wednesday its supporters should vote. But there might still be a last-minute boycott if a list of conditions were not met — and they will not be met— by President Mohammed Morsi’s government.

Mr. Morsi has spectacularly fallen from grace since being elected in June because of a transparent, badly mistimed grab for power last month and an unwillingness to allow fair discussions about the proposed constitution.

On Wednesday, he suddenly declared the referendum would be held over the next two Saturdays, instead of just this Saturday. The hiccup was most of the judges, who are required to oversee voting, have said they want no part of it. So, to provide sufficient oversight at all polling stations, those few judges willing to help out are to be dragooned into doing this twice.

But voting in stages was never on the books, so the decision is being appealed. Those who may decide the matter might include some of the judges who had refused to work in the first place.

There is also the matter of the media coverage, both foreign and local. This drama has involved compelling street theatre, complicated religion, emotion and the importance of Egypt as the Arab world’s historic intellectual leader and conscience. It has needed no dressing up.

But either to make this big story even bigger, to impress faraway editors, or both, journalists have constantly exaggerated the number of demonstrators turning out for protests in the now-iconic Tahrir Square and, more recently, around the presidential palace.

I first noticed this legerdemain during voting for the first post-Hosni Mubarak parliament last winter. As CNN and the BBC were telling the world hundreds of thousands of protesters had massed in Tahrir Square, I looked out my hotel window at a far less spectacular scene. No matter how generous I was with my count, I could never honestly conclude there were more than 30,000 people there. Frankly, even that was a generous estimate.

The same overly generous body counts have been repeated over the past two weeks. Several times I have heard on international and local television commentators claim tens of thousands of Islamists or secularists were on the march or had gathered somewhere.

Watching the same processions, I could never truthfully come up with more than 5,000 or 10,000

Watching the same processions, I could never truthfully come up with more than 5,000 or 10,000. But I could see how at night, in faint street light, and from certain angles, it could sometimes appear on television as if there were more people in the streets than there actually were.

None of these blind alleys or fibs obscure the reality Egypt is in agony over its future or the situation could spin in a deadly direction at any time.

The Islamists sometimes talk as if they expect the country will become a theocracy and they will be glad of it. Those who oppose them have warned they will resist because it would be worse than the cruel autocracy the Islamists and the secularists joined hands to ditch last year.

Also hard to understand has been the odd behaviour of the military. A few days ago, the generals suggested martial law might be imposed if government institutions were not respected. Some in the secularist camp speculated (or even hoped) the military might stage a coup.

The army, which had insisted it would remain neutral, seemed to do Mr. Morsi’s bidding when it called out tanks and armoured cars last week to protect the palace.

Army engineers built four-metre-high concrete barriers to keep the mob at bay. But when this temporary rampart was tested for the first time the other night, soldiers on the far side stepped aside and with gentle grins allowed protesters to walk into the no man’s land that had been created between the palace and the street.

My best guess is the referendum will still take place and the Islamists will handily win this round in the battle for Egypt’s soul. However, Egypt remains on a political journey without maps.

There may be more dark surprises before Saturday. There will certainly be unexpected twists and fresh protests before the next showdown in February when the draft constitution mandates fresh parliamentary elections.