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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair recorded a succession of lower tops and lower bottoms, which confirmed a bearish outlook. The descending 50-period moving average acts as resistance, which should continue to push the prices lower. Furthermore, 104.20 represents a key resistance, and the upside potential should be limited by this level. In these perspectives, as long as this level is not broken above, the pair is likely to pull back to its next level at 103.15 and even 102.75 in extension.

Trading Recommendation: The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 103.15. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 102.75. The pivot point stands at 104.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 103.15 and the second one at 102.75.

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which are playing support roles now, and is holding on the upside. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 0.9915 is playing the key support role, which should limit the downside potential. U.S. and German government bonds saw increased demand after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi revealed that policy makers had not discussed tapering bond purchases. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 1.745% from 1.752% Wednesday. Meanwhile, the 10-year German bund yield sank to 0.004% from 0.032% a day earlier.

As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside toward 0.9970 and 1.000 in extension.

NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair shows further downside potential after its downward breakout of a rising trend line (since Oct 18), which confirms a negative view. The declining 20-period and 50-peirod moving averages are playing resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is capped by a bearish trend line, which emerged on Oct 18, and is below its neutrality level at 50. As long as 0.7205 holds on the upside, look for a further drop toward 0.7125 and 0.7095 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7125. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7095. The pivot point stands at 0.7205. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7230 and the second one at 0.7250.

GBP/JPY is capped by a declining trend line. The technical picture of GBP/JPY is bearish below a descending trend line, which emerged on Oct 19. The declining 50-period moving average suggests that the pair still has potential for a further drop. Additionally, the relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as 127.30 holds on the upside, look for a further drop toward 125.90. A break below this level would call for a further decline toward 125.25.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 125.90. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 125.25. The pivot point stands at 127.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 127.60 and the second one at 127.90.

The GBP/JPY pair showed sideways trading again without any attempts to record the expected targets. The current sideways trading caused by the necessity of the negative momentum makes us expect more of the sideways fluctuation. Let us remind you that the stability of the resistance at 129.60 is important to keep our negative scenario valid in the upcoming period. Therefore, wait until the price reaches the targets at 124.60 and 120.90. Stochastic provides new negative signal to attempt a decline below 50 level which can help the price gather the required momentum then begin to hit the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 128.15 and 124.60.

The USD/JPY pair has been trading positively since yesterday. It surpassed 104.00 barrier and settled above it, which supports continuation of our bullish trend expectations efficiently for the upcoming period. The way is open for the price to head towards our main target located at 106.63. Therefore, we are waiting for more positive trading on the intraday and short term basis. Note that breaking the 102.85 level will invalidate the positive scenario temporarily and push the price to test 100.70 areas before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 103.20 support and 105.50 resistance.

Gold price continues to fluctuate around the EMA50, while stochastic begins to provide positive overlapping signal on the 4H time frame. These factors support our main bullish trend overview which depends on the stability above $1,249.94. Our main target starts at $1,297.74. We remind you that breaching the targeted level will push the gold price towards $1,340.00 followed by $1,375.00 on the near term basis. The expected trading range for today is between $1,249.94 support and $1,285.00 resistance.

Silver price shows positive attempts to move above 17.43 level again, which supports continuation of the bullish trend scenario for today efficiently. Reinforced by stochastic positivity, the price waits to breach the 17.80 level to ease the mission of heading towards our positive targets begining at 18.30 and extending to 19.38. Let us remind that holding above 17.43 level represents the most important condition to achieve the suggested targets. The expected trading range for today is between 17.20 support and 17.80 resistance.

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5190. On the 30M time frame I found strong weakness in the background and wide spread of the bar. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for selling opportunties. There is broken upward trendline on the backgorund, which is a sign for potential lower price. First downward target is set at the price of 1.5170 and the second one is at the price of 1.5135.

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November 2015) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, June, and August 2016).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On August 16, temporary bullish breakout was expressed above the price zone of 1.1250 (supply level 1). However, significant bearish rejection was seen on August 26.

On September 6, weak bullish recovery and a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 were expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,265.00. According to the 30M time frame and using the market profile analysis, I found the strong point of control area at the price of $1,261.50. The price rejected successfully from the point of control, which is a very good sign of strength. Watch for buying opportunities. Intraday upward take profit level is set at the price of

Britain's retail sector data released yesterday were worse than expected. Market participants had expected a 0.3% increase in retail sales from 0.0% a month ago, but there was no increase at all this month. Moreover, on a yearly basis the retail sales increased only 4.1% compared to a 6.6% advance in August and analysts' expectations for a 4.9% gain. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear sales lost 2.8% after prices skyrocketed 5.2%, showing the biggest jump in six years. It is worth to note, that the UK enjoyed one of the warmest Septembers on record, thus people was not obliged to buy autumn clothes. In conclusion, the data suggest the economy is still influenced by consumer spending, which might be overall beneficial as retail sales contribute 0.1% to gross domestic product in the third quarter.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the intraday time frame. The price action looks clearly range-bounded as no important support/resistance level has been violated yet and the market is wobbling around all hourly moving averages.The next support is seen at the level of 1.2208 and the next resistnace is seen at the level of 1.2333.

The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.7215, which represents the double top in the H1 chart. The pair fell from the level of 0.7215 to the bottom around 0.7164. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7175 followed by 0.7215, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.7148 and 0.7119. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still trapped between the levels of 0.7175 and 0.7119. The first resistance is seen at 0.6790, for that if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7175, the market will decline further to 0.7148. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7120 in order to test the second support (0.7119). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7215 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

There were no surprises from the ECB yesterday as the bank has left the interest rates, deposit facility rate and marginal lending facility all unchanged. This means the bank's asset-purchase program (QE) has been left unchanged and during the press conference the ECB head Mario Draghi made dovish comments. The current key question for the global investors is when the ECB is planning to make a decision to extend the QE program that ends in March 2017. The most probable date is December 2017, just after the anticipated FED meeting will take place. The other reason to expect the ECB to take action in December is the inflation increase in the recent months.Despite the fact that the inflation gains remains well below the ECB's inflation target of just below 2.0%, the ECB may opt to raise QE levels in December in order to raise inflation.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at 4H time frame. After the ECB decision, the initial rally has been faded and new low has been made. The support at the level of 1.0911 has been violated and now the next support is seen at the level of 1.0821. Bears are in full control over this market, but the sell-off is losing momentum, so internal correction is now due.

The USD/CHF pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at 0.9884. Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (0.9884), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. The trend is still above the 100 EMA for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. From this point of view, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9962 followed by 1.0035, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9884. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9884 and 1.0035. Consequently, buy above the level of 1.0035 with the first target at 0.9962 so as to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.0035. Besides, the level of 1.0035 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top (161.8% Fibonacci retracement). On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9884, a further decline to 0.9780 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 0.9884 today.

The current upward wave progression is a part of a corrective cycle wave X and, according to the main count, it might even be completed. The most important level for today is the supply zone between the levels of 1.3290 - 1.3312. Only a sustained breakout above this level would change the overall outlook to more bullish. Nevertheless, there are still some uncompleted waves to the downside.

Support/Resistance:

1.3022 - WS1

1.3169 - Weekly Pivot

1.3236 - WR1

1.3185 - Intraday Resistance

1.3139 - Intraday Support

1.3028 - 1.3045 - Demand Zone

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders shouls now be closed with profit and day traders should refrain from trading and wait for another trading setup to occur shortly.

The downward wave progression unfolded as anticipated yesterday and now the next target for wave c (purple) is at the level of the recent swing low at 112.07. Please notice the growing bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the view, that this wave down might be the last one in the sequence.

Support/Resistance:

116.49 - WR2

115.43 - WR1

114.62 - Weekly Pivot

114.00 - Intraday Resistance

113.46 - WS1

113.11 - Intraday Resistance

112.74 - WS2

112.07 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

All the sell orders should now be closed as the TP at the level of 112.97 has been hit. Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for another setup to occur shortly.

EUR/USD: After a volatile Thursday, this pair was able to trend further southwards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would bring price towards the support lines at 1.0900 and 1.0850. However, this would not be without some noticeable opposition from bears.

USD/CHF: After a long siege, the USD/CHDF pair was able to go above the resistance level at 0.9900. The next target could be another resistance level at 0.9950. There is a bullish signal in the market, and bulls would be able to prevent any major pullback today.

GBP/USD: Right now, the Cable is consolidating. There is a need for price to go up by at least, 1000 pips, before there can be any threat to the extant long-term bearish outlook in the market. Until that happens, any rallies seen here would turn out to be opportunities to sell short.

USD/JPY: It looks like the USD/JPY pair has entered an equilibrium phase, but a closer look reveals that a bullish signal is gradually forming in the market. Price is above the EMA 11, which is in turn, above the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is above the level 50, which means price could be moving towards the supply level at 104.50 today.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has gone bearish, just as it was anticipated. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price could be trending further downwards – just in opposite to what the USD/JPY pair is doing. One reason for the perceived weakness in the market is because of the weakness in EUR itself.

The Dollar index has broken the consolidation towards the upside to new highs at 98.50. Trend remains bullish but there are several warning signs for bulls that they should not ignore. Trend is expected to change soon.

Green lines - bullish channel

Red line - long-term support

Blue lines -short-term consolidation

Price is still above the Ichimoku cloud. Price has broken resistance yesterday. The RSI is diverging on the 4-hour chart. This upward move is now fragile and expected to reverse soon.

On a weekly basis, the Dollar index continues its up trend after the successful breakout from last week above the Ichimoku cloud. The follow through is an important bullish sign. Important weekly resistance is found at 99.50. I do not believe the Dollar index has the power to reach that level straight up from current levels. I believe that at least a pullback is justified to backtest cloud support and breakout area. I'm bearish about the Dollar at least for the short term.

Gold price is making a pullback towards the breakout area of $1,262. Price remains inside the neutral cloud area but I believe support will hold and Gold price will continue its bounce and make short-term higher highs and higher lows.

Red line - support (previous resistance)

Gold price is inside the Ichimoku cloud. Trend is neutral. Price is now testing the broken resistance. Price is also very close to exit above the Ichimoku cloud. This will be a bullish sign. Gold could be at the beginning of a new uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Therefore a new higher high above $1,273 will be a bullish sign that could push price towards $1,300.

On the daily chart, we observe that price has tested the daily tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and if this support holds, we will have many chances of reaching our short-term target near $1,290 where the daily Kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is found. Oscillators are turning upwards from oversold levels and this is a warning for bears that an upward move could already have started.

We are looking for confirmation that the decline in wave (ii) from 1.5746 is complete. The first strong indication this is the case, will be a firm break above 1.5292, while a break above 1.5549 will confirm that wave (ii) has completed and wave (iii) higher towards at least 1.6396 and above is developing.

Longer term, we are looking for a break above resistance at 1.6931 and 1.9023, but first we need to bottom to be confirmed by a break above 1.5764. From a classical technical point of view a possible Inverse S/H/S bottom could be building, with the neckline resistance seen at 1.5764.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5285 with stop placed at 1.4985. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5292 and use the same stop at 1.4985.

Ideally Wednesday's low at 113.10 will continue to act as a floor for a break above 113.85 and more importantly above resistance at 114.52 that will call for a new rally to 116.28 and only above here will confirm that the bottom of the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 finally is in place with the test of 109.48. We are working with a bullish count already, but we do not yet have the final confirmation that this count is correct. A break above 116.28 will be a strong indication that this is indeed the case and call for much more upside in the longer term.

The US Dollar Index has print yet another high at 98.55 level yesterday before retracing lower. The index is trading at 98.47 level for now, looking to drop lower further towards 97.30 and 96.50 levels at least. Please also note that 97.30 is the fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between 95.40 and 98.50 levels, as depicted here. The wave structure indicates that the index has completed a 5-wave rally from 95.40 level. It is now expected to drop lower in a corrective manner (3 waves) towards 96.50 level. It is hence recommended to exit long positions and remain flat for now. Aggressive traders might want to go short now, with stop at 98.70 targeting 97.30 level. Immediate resistance is at 98.60 level, while support is seen at 97.30 level respectively.

The EUR/USD pair prints yet another low at 1.0895 levels overnight. The pair is seen to be trading at 1.0906 level for now and needs to push through 1.1040 level to confirm further upside. Please note that probability for a continued lower low is reducing since there is extreme bullish divergence seen on 1H and 4H charts. The pair is expected to rally and take out 1.1040 level to confirm that bulls are here to remain longer and extend rally through 1.1100 level. Please note that 1.1100 level would provide stiff resistance if prices manage to reach there since it is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop between 1.1234 through 1.0895 levels. Looking at the wave structure, the pair looks to be preparing for yet another run towards 1.1040 and 1.1100 levels. It is hence recommended to remain long, with risk at 1.0880 level. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1040 level, while support is seen at 1.0895 level respectively.

Silver is seen to be trading at $17.45 level at this moment of writing, looking to produce a bullish bounce at trend line support. Please note that if this wave count holds well, the metal should push through $18.20/30 levels at least. The metal is lagging slightly behind its counterpart Gold but it is expected to push above $17.77 level now. Please also note that Silver has tested the fibonacci 0.786 support of its recent upswing as seen here. The wave structure also indicates that the metal is expected to produce a counter trend rally at least towards $18.50 levels. If the metal reverses from $18.50/19.00 levels, then it would form base around $16.50/60 levels which is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between $13.70 and $21.10 levels respectively (not shown here). It is recommended to remain flat for now and look for opportunities to short again on rallies. Aggressive traders please remain long with risk at $17.00 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at $18.50/19.00 levels, while support is at $17.00 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Aggressive traders may remain long, with stop at $17.00 and targeting $18.50 at least.

Gold had spiked towards $1,275.00 level during New York session before retracing lower. The metal is trading at $1,262.00/63.00 levels at this moment of writing and should be looking to push higher towards $1,280.00/90.00 levels from here. Please note that the metal is just around the vicinity of past resistance turned support. The wave structure also indicates that the counter trend rally is expected to terminate around the past support turned into resistance at $1,304.00/10.00 levels, which is not shown since a shorter time frame is presented here (1 hour). Prices are testing the fibonacci 0.50% support of the recent rally as depicted here and a bullish reversal is expected any moment. It is recommended to remain flat now and look to sell around $1,300.00/10.00 levels again, while aggressive traders should remain long with risk below $1,240.00. Immediate resistance is now seen at $1,305.00/10.00 levels, while support is at $1,255.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Aggressive traders remain long now with stop at $1,240.00 levels, targeting $1,310.00.

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Consumer Confidence Index. EU Economic Summit is also held today. The US will not release any economic data. Therefore, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0980.

Strong Resistance:1.0974.

Original Resistance: 1.0963.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0952.

Target Inner Area: 1.0927.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0902.

Original Support: 1.0891.

Strong Support: 1.0880.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0874.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Today the economic calendar lacks any economic statistics from Japan and the US. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 104.64.

Resistance. 2: 104.44.

Resistance. 1: 104.23.

Support. 1: 103.99.

Support. 2: 103.78.

Support. 3: 103.57.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Price reversed below our major resistance yesterday as expected and we continue to play the drop. We continue to sell below resistance at 0.7202 (fibonacci retracement, pullback resistance) for a push down to 0.7122.

Stochastics (21,5,3) has made a bearish exit signalling a strong bearish move is in progress.

RSI (34) has made a bearish exit signalling a strong bearish move is unfolding.

The index is strengthening the bullish bias on H1 chart, as we saw that it approached multi-month highs on Thursday's session, where the USD was strongly in a bid. If we see a breakout above the resistance level of 98.53, then it can cling to test the 99.19 level in coming days, while a pullback should send the US Dollar index to visit the 200 SMA.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.53 / 99.19

H1 chart's support levels: 98.01 / 97.71

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 98.53, take profit is at 99.19 and stop loss is at 97.86.

The pair is facing a strong dynamic resistance at the 200 SMA (H1 chart), where sellers are trying to push lower in order to strengthen the bearish bias across the board. However, GBP/USD remains supported by the 1.2229 level, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 1.2155 level. MACD indicator is entering the positive territory, which is an indicator of further gains in coming hours.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2312 / 1.2427

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2229 / 1.2155

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2229, take profit is at 1.2155 and stop loss is at 1.2301.