Reasons for Perry not to pull the trigger — just yet

Updated 4:40 pm, Sunday, July 24, 2011

AUSTIN — A presidential announcement by Gov. Rick Perry looks a lot more like “when” than “if” as every day goes by, but there's more than one good reason for him to hold off on making a race official.

As Perry touts support from around the country and meets with people skilled in raising big money within federal contribution constraints, chief consultant Dave Carney said last week that his team is still gathering the information Perry will need to make a final decision.

Some candidates spend years building the networks that Perry would need to raise money and reach voters in key states. Perry said this wasn't on his radar a couple of months ago.

A presidential race with a late start would be complicated by the need to campaign in early-voting states while mining donations in other states generous to Republicans.

And while Perry's team sees a lot of enthusiasm, you can't escape human nature. Carney calls it the “80 percent rule”: 80 percent of people will do 80 percent of what they say they will do.

A presidential race is a “massive undertaking” that must be decided upon intelligently, Carney said. He doesn't want Perry to be embarrassed if he runs or have regrets if he doesn't. Carney sees two worst-case scenarios.

As long as he's unannounced, Perry's in a good place. He's talked up by the national media, courted by party enthusiasts and most often left alone by announced candidates who don't want to give a challenger either heft or reason to run. While there's been some criticism and analysis, he's getting all of the spotlight's glow and little of the burn.

If Perry announces, that goes out the window. His Texas record and background will be freshly dissected, his campaign style put to the test and his every stumble documented in detail.

“Any time people are telling you that you're the salvation of the country ... it's the high water mark,” said lobbyist and consultant Bill Miller, noting that campaigns “are imperfect at best.”

Carney said part of Perry's consideration is the scrutiny that will be on not only him but his family, friends, anyone who's worked with him and on Texas itself. “It's not pretty to watch people denigrate the state when you've served it as he has,” Carney said.

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Satirists have found the religious overtones of Perry's pronouncements irresistible after the governor expounded on his remarks that he's been “called” and as his prayer rally looms Aug. 6. Stephen Colbert lofted a Perry-God ticket, suggesting that Perry would get the top spot: “I'm thinking Yahweh for vice president.” And The Onion reported that God had urged Perry not to run, finding the governor “grossly unqualified for the position.”

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Perry's press office now has a bigger buffer zone now. A new door encloses a short hall outside the office, allowing people to exit through a nearby reception room without venturing into public view. Press secretary Katherine Cesinger said, “There were some incidents in the past that have raised some concerns about security issues. For instance, us being blockaded in here.” She said a protest by people with disabilities over budget cuts was “one example” and that the staff needs “ease of access to be able to do our jobs.” Cesinger said the new door will be open to media but will allow for “that additional security measure if needed in the future.”