Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through January 1, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Fringe (F)

0.46

Allen Gregory

canceled

0.72

I Hate My Teenage Daughter

0.80

The Cleveland Show

renewed

0.86

Terra Nova

0.90

Raising Hope

0.92

American Dad

renewed

0.93

Bones

1.01

House

1.04

Glee

1.21

Family Guy

renewed

1.21

The Simpsons

renewed

1.23

New Girl

1.41

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Fox ran new episodes of Terra Nova and I Hate My Teenage Daughter the week ending 12/25, but nothing new the week ending 1/1.

While the fate of Terra Nova is likely interesting to many of our readers, its first season is complete, and we'll get no more ratings information before its fate is known. When will that be? Your guess is as good as mine.

Fox will premiere several new scripted shows this spring that will have viewers interested in their prospects, while Fringe, Raising Hope & I Hate My Teenage Daughter's ratings may or may not flourish in the Spring vs. their Fall ratings.

This will be the final Renew / Cancel Index post for the season using the Fall episode ratings for each show. Beginning next week (January 9), only episodes since January 2 will be used in the Index and for my prediction purposes. While I will link back to this post in future weeks, take a good look at these numbers, the Indexes (and predictions) may change noticeably for some shows in the near future.

Q: Why do that?

A: Because over the past several years resetting the Index for "Spring" only ratings has increased prediction accuracy, and reduced confusion about the Index values by readers.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.