You run into some major discontinuities going to Guilin due to no service on somee days and minimal service on some. Essentially, we need to tackle this one backwards looking at Guangzhou (CAN) to Guilin (KWL) first. There are only 2 flights on Nov. 18, Shenzen Air 9637 0740 0845 and Shenzen Air 9669 2110 2225. Due to the near impossiblity of any team getting from Bangkok to Guangzhou in time for the 740am departure(only flights arriving Guanzhou before 2220 the prior evening can do it, we are effectively dealing with the latter. There are are 5 nonstop flights, but three of them leave late enough that they cannot connect even with the 910pm flight. The viable flights are TG668 0950 1330 and MS958 1310 1655.

The "Go" is early compared to other known start times. So, apskip, your LAX to Milan flights leaving at 11:45 am are clear winners. One or both. Ordinarily, as in previous TAR seasons, first flights are in the range of 2 pm. It looks like about a 2 hour shift to get that flight out of LAX.

I hope this turns out to be true because of the strong difference in the two approaches to Locarno: From Zurich vs from Milan. It's more than just checking to see which flight lands first. We've had 13 seasons of that lesson. Now we can graduate to a new one.

I hope it is true,'too. A 4/7 split. I should make for some interesting conversations on the way to LAX. It would appear to me to give an edge to the teams that understand/know the Los Angeles freeway system. Three teams with Los Angeles backgrounds and one from San Diego might just be the 4 breakaways.

Great call on the LAX-Milano connections, apskip. I have not traveled in Europe since the creation of the EU. Just where would these teams clear immigration/customs? Frankfurt or Zurich? Paris or Milano? What is the procedure over there, these days?

NOTE: I have made changes for Interlaken through Romania. The net effect of them is to have leg 3 be to Salzburg and legs 4 and 5 be in Romania. I am reissuing this so you can look at the many small changes which are incorporated as well.

What I find most interesting is the fit LH457/LH3726 has with the observer comments about seeing 7 teams in Frankfurt Airport the morning of Saturday Nov. 1. I expect no other reason to go to Frankfurt except to connect to Zurich. There are 10 nonstop flights on Saturday between Frankfurt and Zurich, so if any are delayed there are alternatives.

The train schedule from Zurich to Bellinzona to Locarno indicates that 3 1/4 hours is required. Here is is:

1.First there is a comment on what happens between Phuket and Guilin. The most obvious possibility is a leg in Bangkok, but if WRP has a "Been there, done that" attitude like me, I want to see somewhere else in southeast Asia next.2. We haven't a clue on where in India AR14 is going except that air connections through Delhi on to Bangkok and Phuket are probable. We know that you can easily get to Phuket via Singapore alao.

Note: some of those above are too early to get if the taditional Amazing Race start timing holds.

What I find most interesting is the fit LH457/LH3726 has with the observer comments about seeing 7 teams in Frankfurt Airport the morning of Saturday Nov. 1. I expect no other reason to go to Frankfurt except to connect to Zurich. There are 10 nonstop flights on Saturday between Frankfurt and Zurich, so if any are delayed there are alternatives.

The train schedule from Zurich to Bellinzona to Locarno indicates that 3 1/4 hours is required. Here is is:

Based on the above, it seems more likely that teams flew to Salzburg on Nov. 4. In order to do that the optimal route is to take a train from Interlaken to Bern(somtimes changing first in Spiez) and then change for Bern to Zurich. The trains that fit are:

First train is dep. Interlaken West 522 transfer at Bern, arr. Zurich HB 0728, transfer there to Zurich Airport dep. HB 0746 arr. Airport 0747, a difficult 23 minute connection to make the first flight below from Zurich airport; see a. below for best flightNext is dep. Interlaken West 1031 transfer at Bern, arr. Zurich HB 1228 dep.HB 1237 arr. Airport 1246; see b. below for best flight Last is dep. Interlaken West 1729 transfer at Spiez and Bern, arr. Zurich HB 1928, dep. HB 1937 arr. Airport 1946; see c. below for best flight

At Zurich there are several nonstop flights to Salzburg, each with a connection from one of the train trips above:

Nov. 21 leg 12 return from Beijing to U.S. for Finish Line in Hawaii via TokyoPEK NRT on Air China has several choices:CA6651/NH956 0845 1305CA925 0930 1350CA167 1350 1750

Continuing on from Tokyo-Narita to Honolulu (NRT to HNL), there are 9 choices with departures between 645pm and 10pm. With the 6 hours 45 minute flying team and 5 hour time difference, these flights arrive HNL 0630 to 0950. The most logical choice to me would be UA880 NRT HNL 1925 0710+1. All these are same day due to crossing the International Date Line.

Finish Line on which Hawaiian island not known yet although I guess Oahu now for convenience

I hope it is true,'too. A 4/7 split. I should make for some interesting conversations on the way to LAX. It would appear to me to give an edge to the teams that understand/know the Los Angeles freeway system. Three teams with Los Angeles backgrounds and one from San Diego might just be the 4 breakaways.

Great call on the LAX-Milano connections, apskip. I have not traveled in Europe since the creation of the EU. Just where would these teams clear immigration/customs? Frankfurt or Zurich? Paris or Milano? What is the procedure over there, these days?

Dr. Rox,Having cleared customs in the European Union recently, I believe I am qualified to speak on this. You clear customs at your entry p[oint into the European Union. In my case that meant Dusseldorf on the way to Bucharest. On arrival in Bucharest on a flight from within Europe, there was no second customs check. On the way back it was to JFK airport where customs clearance was lengthy due to multiple flights arriving almost sinultaneously mid-afternooon.

For AR14, teams would clear in Paris for any flights arriving there for connection to Milan. For those going to Zurich via Frankfurt, it would be in Frankfurt.

The Beijjing to Tokyo flight for at least some of the teams can be confirmed as CA925/NH5702 0930-1350 on 11/21.

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"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

I believe that you are using non-Sunday timetables, which is not permissible when the date in question is Sunday Nov. 2. If you use Sundays, you will duplicate my results. The only possible conclusion is that the St. Gotthard route via connection in Luzern is NOT competitive by 1 hour 24 minutes longer or more.

EDITOR's NOTE - I discovered I had made an assumption about all such trains going through Bellinzona, but that it not correct. So I redid the entire analysis.

If one was going to use the Gotthard Tunnel on trip from Locarno to Interlaken, I would think they would go Locarno to Bellinzona to Luzern to Interlaken Ost. That routing is 4:51 minutes, an hour longer than the Domodossola/Simplon. Which route a team would take, to me, would depend on when they arrived at the Locarno station. Trains run to Bellinzona about every 30 minutes. Trains run to Domodossola about every 1.5 hours. So if a team just missed the Domodossola/Simplon train, they MIGHT get there sooner using the Bellinzona/Gotthard route and beat a team by 30 minutes that waited the 1.5 hour for the Domodossola/Simplon train.

It just depends on when they get finished bungee jumping and get to the Locarno station. How many times in the past have we seen teams try to shave 10 minutes on a 5,000 mile plane ride? Why wouldnt they try to shave 15-30 minutes on a train ride???

I am not saying it is probably, but I am saying it is possible.

Here are two examples.1)If a team arrived at the Locarno station at 9 am. If they took the next Domodossola/Simplon route, they would arrive in Interlaken at 14:28.

Much thanks to walkingpneumonia for finding Chiasso! And everything changes after finding out Preston/Jennifer miss their train!

The first shot of Jennifer looking at the train shows them on Platform 7. The train coming in would be IR172, a direct from Milan to Bellinzona. If the couple get on this (I don't know if the IR172 is considered a TiLo train!), they'd be taking:IR172 from Chiasso to Bellinzona, 1700-1750IR2177 from Bellinzona to Locarno, 1754-1813

Why are they in Chiasso in the first place? Could they have been trying to make this impossible connection?R10860 from Milan to Chiasso, 1538-1643S20 from Chiasso to Giubiasco, 1633-1726Giubiasso to Locarno, 1734-1757

The sane connections don't pass through Chiasso in the first place. So the big question is, what train did they miss?

Since Preston/Jennifer caught (or barely missed) IR172, which leaves Milan Central at 4.10pm, their flight would have landed before 3pm. There's a possibility that they could have gone Los Angeles > Frankfurt > Milan, sharing the Los Angeles > Frankfurt flight with the other seven teams, but that would confuse the hell out of the racers and the audience. Other than that, teams can only connect through Paris, of which Apskip has provided an example.

But that'd probably put the racers in Milan way too early. May I propose:AF75 from Los Angeles to Paris: 1500-1030, thenAF9806 from Paris to Milan Malpensa: 1125-1305 orAF1714 from Paris to Milan Malpensa: 1320-1450

This keeps racers on the same airline (and a major flag carrier, as opposed to Tahiti Nui), which would make buying tickets easier, cheaper and explaining to the audience simpler. Remember TPTB buys the tickets for the first leg!

Or if mayhem is what TPTB wants:LH457 from Los Angeles to Frankfurt: 1435-1025 (flight also connecting to Zurich)LH3886 from Frankfurt to Milan Malpensa: 1215-1325

The Zurich teams are landing at 12.55pm, 2.00pm if they take a later connection. If they make it to Zurich Central by 2.09pm they could arrive in Locarno by 4.57pm. Depart Zurich 3.09pm, and arrive Locarno 5.57pm. Miss that and it's depart Zurich 4.09pm, arrive Locarno 6.57pm.

Now if Preston/Jennifer miss their train and still arrive in Locarno at 6.13pm, everything is up for grabs!

Hmm, interesting! It doesn't matter whether you come in through Milan or Zurich, it depends on how long you take to get out of the airport. If you hustle you'd make it ahead, delay and you're pretty much dead!

« Last Edit: February 13, 2009, 01:23:58 PM by Neobie »

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I just loved this connection from apskip. I thought it might make for a 4/7 split and let 7 teams fight it out for last place. Seems that TAR always does the opposite and splits them 7/4 and leave 4 teams as Tail End Charlies. One thing that bothered me about this flight posibility, was the short connection time. I haven't ever been to CDG. Could a team land on TN22 in Termainal 2A/2B, clear customs and make a connecting flight in Terminal 2F in that amount of time? 60 minutes for AF1214 and 50 minutes for XM5997.

Since we have seen Preston/Jennifer in Italy at almost 5 pm, this flight connections seem much more likely as Neobie has found for us.

Again almost the same problem. Could a team land on AF75 at Terminal 2E, clear customs and make a departing flight in Terminal 2F in 55 minutes for the AF9806 flight to Milano. I dont see the codeshare being a problem, just the time frame.

AF1714 seems like the best fit for me, though a 2h 50 min layover might be a little long. At least they should be able to make it. Seats in the back might just make a team miss the train out of the airport and put them on next best train connection to Locarno.

Anyone fly in/out of CDG and maybe comment on the connection times there?

The CBS super-spoiler map (boo!) has given us two legs in Beijing, so may I propose this schedule for the last third of the race:

Flight specifics are left out unless they differ from Apskip's timetable upthread! This timeline only serves to fill in the missing dates (or correct one or two dates) in Apskip's full version, and mostly help us figure out whether teams take air or land transport. (Remember, less airports!)

15 Nov SatFlight from Bangkok to Phuket, 7.30am to 8.50amPhuket Zoo opens at 8.30am before racers arriveOther tasks in PhuketSightings in Suan Luam at 3-4pmPit Stop 7 (Phuket) from early evening to next morning

16 Nov SunBus or plane from Phuket to BangkokIf by plane, teams can arrive by 8.50amIf by bus, teams can only arrive after 6.30pmTasks in BangkokPit Stop 8 (Bangkok) times vary accordingly (see below)

Munoz brothers are still stuck in Guangzhou at night, suggesting they miss the first five options and depart from the Pit Stop earliest late in the morning. Assuming no strange Pit Stop extensions, that suggests teams finish the Bangkok leg in the evening, adding weight to the possibility of a bus ride from Phuket.

Tasks in Guilin until late at nightPit Stop 9 (Guilin), with arrivals lasting until 3am

18 Nov TueExtra day, choose any of the following delay tactics:A) Extended Pit Stop in Guilin, departures early afternoon 19thB) Hours of Operation in Beijing in the late afternoonC) Sadistic producers send teams on a full day's train ride to Beijing:K158 (0206-0610), T6 (1418-1209), T190 (1607-1455), K22 (1920-2157)

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

I have spent a lot of time transiting CDG. That airport is one of my least favorites and can frequently be hell. Lines are a nightmare, security can be overwhelmed, gate are swarming with far more people than there is space. Many gates require taking an overworked bus/shuttle from the terminal to the plane. Delays are common.

I would easily want twice as much time as is stated.

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"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

Quick recap:Phil left Delhi in the late evening of Thr 13 Nov, and arrives in Phuket on the morning of Fri 14 Nov.Teams left Bangkok for Phuket on the morning of Sat 15 Nov.

The last team to check in at Jaipur arrives after 6.00am, Thr 13 Nov.9W373 (0900-0945) flies from Jaipur to Delhi, and TG324 (1155-1725) from Delhi to Bangkok. This combination could get Phil into Phuket in the evening of Thr 13 Nov, but Phil arrives too late at the airport to catch it.The last team to check in at Jaipur arrives before 8.30pm, Thr 13 Nov.The latest Phil could have left Jaipur is on IT612 from Jaipur to Delhi (2130-2210), which connects to 9W64 from Delhi to Bangkok (0100-0655).

Teams check out of Jaipur after 12.30am, Fri 14 Nov.If leaving Jaipur by plane, teams departing the next day also arrive too late at the airport to catch the 9W373/TG324 combination.If teams leave for Delhi by bus, they'd have to catch the last bus at 12.30am for hopes of catching TG324.If teams leave for Delhi by train, they'd have to leave Jaipur by 5.30am.Teams check out of Jaipur before 8.30pm, Fri 14 Nov.Teams need to arrive in Bangkok before 7.30am for the flight to Phuket. The latest they can leave Jaipur (same as Phil for the previous day) is at 9.30pm.

A 36-hour Pit Stop means teams checked in in the range of 6am to 8.30am, which doesn't sound very plausible. Assuming a 12-hour Pit Stop, teams checked in between 12.30pm and 8.30pm on Thr 13 Nov.

« Last Edit: February 17, 2009, 08:45:39 AM by Neobie »

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