SUNDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: I think we need the U.S. electoral college to see who’s winning box office this Presidents Weekend. Rival studios are telling me that Universal’s Safe House is edging Sony Pictures/Screen Gems’ The Vow for both the 3-day weekend and the 4-day holiday. (As a Sony exec emailed me Saturday night: I know they’re ahead $400K tonight. We had a $900K lead yesterday. I’d say close but we have good shot to win.”) Either way holdovers are beating all the new films and the North American box office is big. Here’s Top Ten (determined by 3-day weekend numbers):

10. The Grey (Open Road) Week 4 [2,107 Theaters]
Friday $785K, Saturday $1.3M
3-Day Weekend $3M, Est 4-Day Holiday $3.4M, Est Cume $48.3FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM, 2ND UPDATE: Another nailbiter. All the studios are telling me that Sony Pictures/Screen Gems’ hefty holdover The Vow will end up #1 for Friday with between $7.1M and $7.5M depending on whose numbers prove correct. It also should capture the long holiday, making it the biggest Screen Gems movie ever. (Dear John made $80M). But Sony, which is looking at a 1-2 finish Friday, is cautioning me that the opening gross for its 3D comic book adaptation Ghost Rider: Spirit Of Vengeance “could go higher as the night goes on”. So the order might change by Saturday morning. (But probably not, or so the rest of Hollywood predicts. “Ghost Rider‘s opening will be half of the 2007 original,” a rival studio exec tells me. Snarks another: “Once they started advertising it with Nic Cage, it went downhill.”) This weekend, Universal’s action holdover Safe House is expected to battle Ghost Rider 2 for second place all holiday long.

Clearly this 4-day Presidents Weekend box office is starting out very competitively — maybe $180M, continuing the ‘up’ streak. That’s +4% over last year but short of the 2010 Prez Day record of $238M which included Valentine’s Day. What is clear already is that those strong Valentine’s Day sneak previews didn’t help Fox debut This Means War Friday that much better. Not surprisingly, after weeks of soft tracking and moving off its VDay release date, it’ll fall by Saturday behind Warner Bros’ holdover Journey 2: The Mysterious Island because of its big family matinee bump. Gotta say: when Reese Witherspoon, Chris Pine, and Tom Hardy combined can’t open a movie to $20M over a 4-day holiday with McG directing, something is hinky. I think the public is fatigued with romantic comedy, even if this one had a lot of action and a not-too-lame premise, and is choosing The Vow‘s romantic drama for a change-up. Disney had very low expectations for its latest Studio Ghibli toon out of Japan. But even if The Secret World Of Arrietty looks like this long weekend’s big flop, Friday will be the highest opening of a Ghibli film. Full analysis when the numbers firm.

—1 PM: Rentrak is having difficulties with hourly grosses and that put a pause on analyzing matinee numbers. But it looks like this 4-day President’s Holiday weekend will end up strong. Right now for today, Sony Pictures’ sequel Ghostrider: Spirit Of Vengeance is opening just pennies away from Universal’s holdover Safe House and Sony Pictures The Vow (in that order). Fox newcomer This Means War is ahead of Warner Bros’ holdover Journey 2. Order by weekend’s end could be same.