3 Americans missing in Baghdad were kidnapped by an Iran-backed militia — and the US apparently had warning

U.S.
Ambassador to Iraq Jones introduces Lt. Gen. MacFarland as new
commander general of U.S.-led coalition in Iraq and Col. Warren
as coalition's new spokesman during news conference in
BaghdadThomson
Reuters

The US embassy in Iraq reportedly received warning that an
Iran-backed Shiite militia wanted to kidnap American contractors
operating in Baghdad, an unnamed State Department
source told
CBS News.

The threat information, which has not been confirmed by the State
Department, reportedly came one week before three Americans were
kidnapped from their interpreter's home in Baghdad on
Saturday.

Two Iraqi intelligence and two U.S. government
sources confirmed to Reuters on Tuesday that the Americans
are being held by an Iranian-backed Shi'ite
militia.

"Officials in Washington had hoped the Iranian government
would tell the militia group to hold off because of all the
negotiations surrounding the prisoner swap that saw
the release of five Americans," CBS reported.
"The State Department source said the fear was that one of
the groups might have 'gone off the
reservation.'"

It was not clear, according to CBS, if the information the
embassy reportedly received was in any way related to last
weekend's kidnapping. But it would not be the first time the US
delayed taking action on a provocative threat or action from Iran
in the name of securing the prisoner swap and finalizing the
landmark nuclear deal, as critics were quick to point out.

Iran tested ballistic missiles at least twice in 2015 in
violation of a UN resolution, but the US delayed imposing
sanctions on individuals connected with the ballistic-missile
program until after the exchange and the deal
were finalized on Saturday.

U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry talks with Iranian Foreign Minister
Javad Zarif after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
verified that Iran has met all conditions under the nuclear deal,
in Vienna January 16, 2016.Kevin
Lamarque/Reuters

The imminent prisoner swap might also have explained
why the US did not respond more forcefully to
videos Iran released of American sailors detained in its
waters last week, Middle East analyst Aaron David
Miller, a former senior State Department official in Republican
and Democratic administrations, noted
on Twitter over the weekend.

The timing of the Americans'
disappearance also raises questions about how much the
thawing of Iran's relations with the West will quell the
provocative behavior of Iran's hard-liners and their proxies in
the region.

Hard-liners inside Iran have forcefully insisted that
the deal agreed upon by world powers last July — known as the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — be limited to issues
surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The JCPOA is not, they
contend, a step toward greater rapprochement with the so-called
Great Satan.

But Tony Badran, a Middle East expert at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, said that the nuclear deal has
always been "a dynamic for cooperation with Iran on other
issues."

The problem with that, Badran
told Business Insider over the weekend, is that
Iranian government officials use every concession the US gives
them "to pursue their agenda."

A
man walks past a satirized painting of the Statue of Liberty
painted on the wall of the former U.S. Embassy, in Tehran, Iran,
Saturday, Nov. 2, 2013.AP/Ebrahim
Noroozi

"Once Implementation Day is announced, Iran is going to
step up its provocative actions in the region,"
Michael Pregent, an adjunct fellow at the Hudson
Institute and former Defense Department adviser on Iraqi security
forces, told Business Insider on Saturday. "And the
hard-liners know this White House won't do a thing about it for
the next 12 months."

Scott Bolz, a US Iraqi embassy spokesman, told CBS in a
statement that the US government is "working in full cooperation
with Iraqi authorities to locate the missing
Americans."

State Department spokesman John Kirby
echoed that sentiment, but said he could not comment
further due to "privacy considerations."