The monsoon rainfall depends on the ElNino, which should be formed in the month of March-May and the temperature should be maintained between 0.5-1 degree celcius for 3 straight months.

Skymet, watched this from February, and concluded ElNino fading rapidly. Because of this drop in the temperature, only a moderate ElNino will be formed any time.

Previously, Indian meteorological Department also announced “weak ElNino conditions would be prevailed”.

Monsoon:

Monsoon is a familiar though a little known climatic phenomenon.

The Monsoon is a recurring evente. it repeats after a certain frequency of time – a year in our case. But, it may not be uniform in every period (year). There are a lot of factors which affect its duration and intensity over India.

The Monsoon is basically a result of the flow of moisture laden winds because of the variation of temperature across the Indian Ocean.

ENSO:

El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of what is known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycle.

The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific.

Background of El Nino: El Nino means“The Little Boy or Christ Child” in Spanish. El Nino was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.

El Nino is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns.

The cycle begins when the warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America.

Normally, this warm water pools near Indonesia and the Philippines. During an El Nino, the Pacific’s warmest surface waters sit offshore of north western South America.