Mike Roselli is a Chicago-based attorney and sports analyst. He runs "The Doggy Juice Podcast" - an analytics-driven podcast that updates listeners on state-by-state sports betting legalization and helps them find value on the betting boards.

Coming off their bye week following a disappointing loss to the Raiders in London, the 3-2 Bears return to action Sunday afternoon (4:25 p.m. ET/3:25 p.m. CT, FOX) against a 5-1 Saints team that is undefeated since Drew Brees went down early in the season with a thumb injury.
Chicago (2-3 against the spread) is a 3- to 3.5-point favorite in its return to action at Soldier Field. The line opened -4 in Las Vegas, but early action on the underdog has tightened the point spread.
With a total at 38 as of mid-week trading, the lowest number on the Week 7 board, the betting market anticipates points being tough to come by in a matchup involving two of the NFL’s strongest defenses. Only two games this NFL season have kicked off with totals below 38.
Bettors who think the Bears are destined for a spread-covering win in their return to Soldier Field off their bye week should temper their expectations. Since 2013, teams playing at home following their bye are 45-60-5 ATS.
__MORE:__ [NFL Week 7 early betting lines](http://betindiananews.com/nfl-week-7-betting-lines-texans-colts/)
As of this Wednesday publication, Bears QB Mitch Trubisky is questionable with a left shoulder injury, but he is working hard to [return to action](https://sports.yahoo.com/mitch-trubisky-working-hard-toward-151406449.html) on Sunday. Chase Daniel will get the start for the Bears if Trubisky isn’t able to suit up, but [oddsmakers told BetChicago](https://www.betchicago.com/nfl-week-7-betting-lines-saints-bears-trubisky-daniel) not to expect much change to the market number regardless of which Chicago QB gets the nod.
New Orleans (4-2 ATS) has one of the best offensive lines in the league, but the unit will encounter one of its toughest challenges yet -- a well-rested Bears defense hungry to take the field after a lackadaisical effort against Derek Carr and the Raiders in Week 5.
One should expect the stout Chicago defense to be keen to start Sunday’s game against the Saints with an entirely different tone, but such an effort will be difficult without defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, who was placed on injured reserve this week with an elbow injury. The former Saint is a strong leader in the Chicago locker room, and his presence leaves a sizable void.
The Bears will also be missing a key leader on the offensive line, as guard Kyle Long was placed on IR with a [hip injury](https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bears/ct-chicago-bears-kyle-long-akiem-hicks-mitch-trubisky-injuries-20191014-ddpb5bdaerbsjbplw2az4k3uze-story.html).
The Saints aren't devoid of injury issues themselves. Bettors should monitor the status of star RB Alvin Kamara (high ankle issue) as the game approaches. The third-year stud is questionable for Sunday, and his presence is crucial to optimal execution of the Saints' gameplan.
This has the look of a matchup that favors whichever team is able to establish a lead.
Filling in for Brees, who could be back as early as [next week](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/drew-brees-could-be-back-by-week-8-for-saints-game-vs-cardinals/), Teddy Bridgewater has been serviceable, completing 72.44% of his passes for 924 yards and seven TDs to two INTs over his four starts. But coach Sean Payton and the Saints know that winning the early downs with the running game and getting out to a lead is the best recipe for success against Chicago, instead of testing the Bears pass rush with predictable passing plays later in the contest.
The Bears, on the flip side, will want to force Bridgewater to have to beat them via the air.
__MORE:__ [Super Bowl 54 odds update](http://betindiananews.com/super-bowl-54-odds-colts/)
The Bears defense has lived up to the bill so far this season, but the offense is struggling mightily. Offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich's unit is averaging a paltry 266 yards per game (30th in the NFL), including 185.4 passing yards per game (also 30th). The Bears are 27th in the league with an average output of 17.4 points per game. On Sunday, they face a Saints defense that held Dallas to 10 points and Jacksonville to six points in two out of the last three weeks.
The Saints have shown that they can win dirty without Brees, and they will look to do it again at Soldier Field on Sunday. All five of their 2019 victories have come by one score or less.
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the NFC North, but Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the NFC South.
The total has gone UNDER in eight out of the Bears’ last 10 games, including five straight at home. UNDER bettors have cashed in five of the Saints’ last six road games, and the total has gone UNDER at a 66% clip in New Orleans’ last 15 games. For what it's worth, the UNDER is 6-4 in NFL games this season with a total below 40.
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