Time to discard Green fairy stories

When Louis XVIII was restored to the French throne in 1814, he and his brother, Charles X, behaved in such a way that the diplomat Talleyrand was supposed to have commented that the French royals “had learnt nothing and forgotten nothing” from the revolution and their long exile.

Much the same comment could be made about the Australian Greens, following the ascension of Christine Milne to the party leadership to replace Bob Brown. Milne took the opportunity of the media attention accorded her to prattle on about decarbonising the Australian economy by 2050, and about consumers driving electric cars that have been recharged from banks of photovoltaic panels.

This guff was probably recycled for the benefit of core Green supporters who like to be told a good story, but the statements indicated the Greens had not learnt anything about economic realities in recent years, or forgotten the fairy stories they like to tell each other.

For the Australian economy is not going to be decarbonised by 2050 or any other deadline that Milne may care to set.

There may be some benefit from switching from coal- to gas-fired plants for producing electricity, assuming that the Greens don’t manage to block coal seam and shale gas developments. The carbon tax may force major emitters to do something about their emissions, but then again, they may simply pay the additional cost and hope that they can pass it on to consumers.

Then there is the legislative requirement that 20 per cent of all electricity generated in Australia come from alternative energy sources by 2020, which is set to remain in place alongside the carbon tax. This requirement will at least produce nominal savings in emissions, as it is assumed that a megawatt generated by these projects is a megawatt saved from a fossil fuel plant.

But anyone who has looked at the immense difficulties of hooking intermittent energy sources up to a 24-hour-a-day electricity network may wonder if there will be any carbon savings at all.

Australia is by no means alone in finding the task of decarbonising the economy beyond the ability of any government hoping to be re-elected. In fact, after years of Green rhetoric, it is difficult to point to an example of a country that has made real progress in decarbonisation, unless you count switching from coal to gas (as happened in Britain).

However, some decarbonisation has been achieved in Australia by accident. As has been reported, average demand for electricity has been declining since 2008-2009. A few explanations have been offered for this decline, but the most likely explanation is that consumers have reacted to vast increases in electricity prices by cutting consumption.

In addition, the high dollar has been gutting manufacturing, which is a major energy user.

The high electricity prices are, in turn, the result of major upgrades to the distribution networks making up for years of underfunding in that area when the networks were state-owned and to meet peak demand (at least that is what we are being told).

In other words, electricity consumption is being reduced by a major factor that has little to do with Green policies and is greatly annoying consumers. They would like to be able to consume more electricity, perhaps by buying a second air-conditioner or yet another electric heater, but power bills are eating into the budgets of even high-income families.

When confronted by these uncomfortable truths, including the realisation that voter support for Green policies fades very quickly if the policies mean lifestyle changes, Green activists retreat into fantasy.

Solar power-driven base load electricity plants are just around the corner, we are told, and power from photovoltaic arrays will be competitive with fossil fuel power next year.

A reality check, particularly of the company material on the Gemasolar concentrated solar power plant in Spain (often cited as a 24-hour plant), shows that the pilot-plant sized installation occasionally reaches 24-hour production of costly electricity. Power from PV panels is still hopelessly uncompetitive, and likely to remain so.

Christine Milne may be saying what the Greens’ core supporters want to hear, but decarbonisation is a fantasy that we should stop encouraging.

The Australian Financial Review

BY Mark Lawson

Mark is a leader writer for the AFR and covers the clean
energy sector from our Sydney newsroom.