A potential victory for Donald J. Trump may hinge on one important (and large) group of Americans: whites who did not attend college.

Polls have shown a deep division between whites of different education levels and economic circumstances. A lot rides on how large these groups will be on Election Day: All pollsters have their own assessment of who will show up, and their predictions rely on these evaluations.

The largest bloc is whites who have no college degree, and the voting-age population of this group is as large as that of voting-age blacks, Hispanics and Asian-Americans combined. Mitt Romney won this group over Barack Obama by 26 percentage points, and Ronald Reagan by 31 points in 1984. But Bill Clinton won this bloc of voters both times he ran. In this year’s political polls, this group favors Mr. Trump by large margins over Hillary Clinton.

Just about every pundit has tried to answer the question “Who are these people who support Donald Trump?”

The lazy media villagers reflexively resort to asserting that they are the economically distressed and angry white working class, with the laziest among them even asserting that they include “Reagan Democrats” (all of whom are already dead or barely alive in a nursing home).

Simon Maloy at Salon does a good job of distilling the new Gallupdata on Trump voters. They aren’t exactly who most people think they are. They’re not as economically distressed or negatively impacted by the loss of manufacturing jobs as is widely assumed, and they’re often more suburban than rural. Counterintuitively, “Gallup found that the only candidate who is viewed consistently positively in areas with higher concentrations of manufacturing jobs is… Hillary Clinton.”

Trumpism may have parallels in populist, nativist movements abroad, but it is also the culmination of a proud political party’s steady descent into a deeply destructive and dysfunctional state.

While that descent has been underway for a long time, it has accelerated its pace in recent years. We noted four years ago the dysfunction of the Republican Party, arguing that its obstructionism, anti-intellectualism, and attacks on American institutions were making responsible governance impossible. The rise of Trump completes the script, confirming our thesis in explicit fashion.

Media villagers like to falsely equate people who are not registered with a political party, whom the media prefers to call “independents,” as being “moderates” and “swing voters.” Nothing is further from the truth, as I have posted the political science research to explain many times over the years. (Yet the media villagers persist).

While “Independent” voters now make up the largest share of the electorate, most Independents – as many as 87%, according to the Pew Research Center – “lean” toward one party or another. Moreover, many Independents aren’t centrists – rather, they claim that label because they are further to the right or further to the left than the parties that most closely represent their views.

The true size of the swing electorate is therefore much smaller than the growth in the number of “independent” voters implies. In fact, says a new survey by the research firmLincoln Park Strategies, just 4% of the American electorate is truly independent– unaffiliated with a political party and ideologically in the middle.

Note: This is down from previous studies that pegged this number around 7%.

Donald Trump made the strategic decision to disregard the RNC’s 2012 election “autopsy” report from its Growth and Opportunity Project, which called on the party to be more inclusive towards minorities, especially Latinos, which the RNC said was critical to the future growth of the GOP.

Trump instead has doubled-down on Sean Trende’s thesis of The Case of the Missing White Voters: that a large portion of the demographic change we saw in the 2012 electorate was not due to increased turnout, but rather a drop in white voter participation. Trende followed up his original story with a second piece in 2013 that suggested these voters were mostly lower-income, blue-collar voters who lived in areas that had also voted for Ross Perot. If the GOP could find a candidate to motivate these voters sufficiently, it could narrow the gap between them and Democrats and offset some of the losses Republicans could suffer due to demographic shifts.

In other words, whites are still the majority in America, and if Donald Trump and his authoritarian crypto-fascist white supporters can take control of the government, they will “Make America Great White Again” and put those minorities back in their place.

This belief that there are enough angry old white people who identify with the GOP and Donald Trump to build an electoral majority from is not supported by the demographic evidence. (This of course assumes that there will not be an equally robust effort to suppress Democratic voter constituencies from voting).

This idea that Donald Trump is engaged in a “hostile takeover” of the GOP or has hijacked the party is ludicrous. Trump is winning over a key voter constituency that the GOP has methodically nurtured for decades and fed their fears and prejudices with the conservative media entertainment complex. Trump is just a symptom of the disease. The disease of racism and bigotry has been festering in the GOP’s soul for decades. The day of reckoning has been a long time coming.

Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House, said that if “a person” wants to be the G.O.P. nominee, “they must reject any group or cause that is built on bigotry. This party does not prey on people’s prejudices.”

Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, talked about “one of our presidential candidates and his seeming ambivalence about David Duke and the K.K.K.”

“I condemn his comments in a most forceful way,” said Mr. McConnell, speaking in an unforceful way.

The comments by Mr. Ryan and Mr. McConnell had two things in common.

First they misrepresented (I think deliberately) the position of the Republican Party on issues like racism and the politics of division. O.K., maybe an actual former K.K.K. grand wizard is a bit much, but both racism and divisiveness have been at the heart of the G.O.P.’s governing and electoral strategy for many, many decades. George H.W. Bush won the presidency in 1988 with a campaign designed around appealing to racism and fear. Mr. McConnell was fine with Confederate flags flying from government houses in the South until the political pressure to take them down became too intense. The Republicans don’t have a “seeming ambivalence” about this. Some are more than seemingly ambivalent, and some are ready and willing to embrace the forces of racism when expedient. Only a tiny handful truly distance themselves from those dark forces in American politics.

What’s the future of energy for Tucson? Solar power. Wind energy. Hydroelectric. Geothermal. Nuclear power. What are the alternatives to our fossil fuel addiction? How can we implement them? What are the advantages? What are the challenges?There are a lot … Continue reading →

Closed Captions Eating Animals TUESDAY, AUGUST 14 AT 7:30PM | REGULAR ADMISSION PRICES Thanks to our community partner, Food Conspiracy Co-Op! “How much do you know about the food that’s on your plate? Based on the bestselling book by Jonathan … Continue reading →

“Glendale, we have a new office coming your way! Come out to our office opening party this Wednesday at 5:30pm! Meet our local AZ Dems team and become a #trailblAZing volunteer. RSVP here: https://my.azdem.org/event/map/98114” https://www.facebook.com/events/301138480642465/Share this:FacebookTwitterMoreEmailTumblrPrintPocketRedditLinkedInGooglePinterestLike this:Like Loading...

Hosted by YWCA Arizona – STAT-Stand Together Arizona Training & Advocacy “Some people think that voting has gone to the dogs, so let’s prove them wrong and have a party. YWCA STAT team invites you to bring your ballot and … Continue reading →

“All Candidates running for State Legislator and Senator in Legislative Districts Two and Three have been invited. Moderated by Ernesto Portillo, Jr. The focus is on education, come ask your questions. Free and open to the public! Hosted by Arizona … Continue reading →

Our next meeting is on August 18th, 6:30 pm-8:00 pm at the Murphy-Wilmot Library, 530 N. Wilmot Rd., Tucson, Arizona 85711. “We will be meeting in the large meeting room. This meeting is a planning and strategy meeting for direction … Continue reading →

Hosted by League of Women Voters of Central Yavapai County https://www.facebook.com/events/1921462437904567/Share this:FacebookTwitterMoreEmailTumblrPrintPocketRedditLinkedInGooglePinterestLike this:Like Loading...

“We’re having a party this Saturday to celebrate our new office opening in Nogales! Come meet other local Democrats and find out how to join our #trailblAZing volunteer team. RSVP here: https://my.azdem.org/event/map/98614 It’s the office with pink flowers on the windows!” https://www.facebook.com/events/288515001948085/ Share … Continue reading →

*Please note that this meeting is on the 3rd Sunday of the month, instead of the usual 2nd Sunday. “Carmen Liñero-Lopez with the Feminist Majority will be speaking to us about her work to energize and get out the student … Continue reading →

Pima County Democratic Party Chair Jo Holt will be speaking on “Electing Democrats and Looking forward to the General Election”. The Arizona primary is on August 28, 2018 so don’t forget to vote. Share this:FacebookTwitterMoreEmailTumblrPrintPocketRedditLinkedInGooglePinterestLike this:Like Loading...

Hosted by Presidio San Agustín del Tucson and La Cocina Restaurant & Cantina “Tucson’s official birthday party will take place in the Presidio District on Aug. 20, the City’s actual birthday, from 5-7:30 pm. Hosted by the Tucson/Pima County Historic … Continue reading →

The RSVP Deadline is August 19th The Child Separation Fiasco: How did we get here? The policy of family separation evoked alarm and outrage from the general public this summer. But this practice is merely the latest in a decades-long … Continue reading →

“Join us on August 24 to learn about the current status of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the opportunities in revisiting the agreement, and the current status of negotiations between Canada, Mexico and the United States. Mr. Lopez will also discuss … Continue reading →

With the Nov. 6 general election getting closer every day, our mission of covering "Politics from a liberal viewpoint" has never been more important. Your donation will directly be a force for change for the better in Arizona.

Contribute Today!

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.