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Wednesday, July 13, 2016

On Human Opportunity

There is a small theater for visitors at the NASA Space
Center in Houston, called "Destiny Theater". Every hour, every day, they show a film there called “On Human Destiny”. This beautiful and deeply moving film
documents the history of space exploration, using striking historical film
footage. The film concludes that it is
our human destiny to explore space and colonize other star
systems.

I don’t believe in human destiny. I believe in human opportunity.

There is no force which predetermined that humans should
reach space, spread life to other star systems, or colonize other planets. There is only our human potential to do
so. Whether we succeed in becoming
something more than we are today or become a geological footnote in the history
of a small planet depends on us. It
depends on our choices and our ability to cooperate. It depends on our ability to work. It depends on our ability to solve
problems. It depends on what we choose to do. It depends on us.

Rarity of
Human Life

In the history of the world, or the history of the galaxy,
the evolution of the human species is an incredibly rare and improbable
event. Even given our debut as a tool-making genus about 3 million years ago, and a species capable of abstract thought 70,000 years ago, our technological civilization
is an additionally unlikely and very recent development. Against all odds, we stand on the cusp of meaningful space travel; we stand on the cusp of
interstellar transmission of life.

The universe is about 13.8 billion years old. By comparison, we have had the ability to communicate by radio broadcast for 122 years.
That is 0.0000000088th of the lifetime of the universe. Or consider our planet, which has existed for
4.6 billion years. We have had the
ability to communicate by radio for a fraction of 0.00000003 times the life of
our planet. Putting it another way, if
aliens had randomly looked our planet at any time during the life of the planet
to date, they would have had a 0.00000003th chance of noticing that there
was an intelligent species, capable of radio communication. [Or, at least a species capable of
communication, with the question of intelligence unresolved.]

Rarity of
Intelligent Life in the Galaxy

The Drake Equation, formulated in 1961, describes the
probability that a civilization capable of radio communication exists in the
galaxy at the present time. Many
variables in the equation are poorly constrained (obviously). But astronomical knowledge is rapidly
reducing the uncertainty about the number of habitable planets in the galaxy. The principal remaining uncertainty is the
expected lifetime of a technological civilization, as pointed out by
astronomers Carl Sagan and I. S. Shlovski in 1966.

The equation begins with a large number representing the
number of stars in the galaxy, or the rate of star formation in the
galaxy. Factors representing some
fraction of those stars successively pare down the number of potential
civilizations, according to necessary criteria for life, for intelligence, for
technology, and for longevity of the civilization. The equation looks like this (from
Wikipedia):

N = R*
. fp .ne . fl
. fi . fc .L

where:

N = the number of
civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e.
which are on our current past light cone);

and

R* = the average
rate of star formation in our galaxy

fp = the fraction of
those stars that have planets

ne = the average
number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

fl = the fraction of
planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point

fi = the fraction of
planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life
(civilizations)

fc = the fraction of
civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their
existence into space

L = the length of
time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

Some variants of the equation use the total number of stars in the
Milky Way as a starting point, rather than the rate of star formation That number is between 200,000,000,000 and
400,000,000,000.

Here are my guesses for these factors.

My Assumptions for the Drake
Equation:

80% of stars have
planets.

20% of planetary
systems have at least one habitable planet

20% of habitable
planets develop life

1% of planets with
life develop intelligence

20% of planets with
intelligence develop radio technology.

The average lifetime of a radio-capable technological civilization is 2000 years.

These assumptions
yield an estimate that there is one technological civilization in the galaxy at
the present time – us. If I adjust
the factors such that there are 2 civilizations in the galaxy, the average
distance to another civilization would be about 35,000 light-years. Thus the time required to communicate with
another civilization would far exceed my estimate for the expected lifetime of
a civilization.

There are a number of interactive calculators for the Drake Equation available on
the Internet.

Human Opportunity

“The Earth is
just too small and fragile a basket for the human race to keep all its eggs in.” Robert
Heinlein

Against incredible odds, humanity stands on the cusp of
interplanetary travel. Some of the
world’s best and brightest people are seriously making plans to colonize
Mars. And if the other planets in the
solar system are too inhospitable to support an independent human civilization,
scientists have discovered a thousand planets around other stars – and these
are but a tiny fraction of the number that must exist.

Still, I am reminded of the title of a book by Ben Bova:
Starflight and other Improbabilities. As
we understand physics today, the speed of light is an unyielding limit. Voyages to the stars would require
generations to complete the voyage and consume vast resources. The probability of success for any particular
venture would be slim. But the
tantalizing possibility of interstellar colonization is possibly, just barely
within our grasp. A program to gain more
information about other planets is the first step.

I can imagine launching miniaturized microprobes, using magnetic
accelerators in space to catapult them near light speed. Returning the data to earth is problematic;
but perhaps the probes themselves could use the gravity of stars to reverse
course to earth. Alternatively, a series
of relay craft, with deployable antennae could follow the probe and transmit
the data back to earth.

And if colonization of the stars proves to be impossible, we
could at least do what life does: propagate itself. We could send seed packages to other star
systems which would spread the miracle of life to other worlds. If that alone is humanity’s legacy, it would
be a worthy monument that we lived, developed science and technology, and gave
life a new chance on barren worlds.

That is the opportunity for humanity.

What We
Must Do: A Short List

Colonization of the stars, by people or earthly life, will
not happen by itself. Realization of
this opportunity will only happen if people actively work toward that goal,
through deliberate, directed effort and management of problems facing humanity
on Earth.

You may have noticed that I highlighted the final parameter
of the Drake Equation – the expected lifetime of a technological
civilization. My guess is that a
technological civilization will exist for about 2000 years before
self-destructing due to environmental collapse, war or other strife. Clearly, the longer a civilization can last,
the better the chances of realizing Human Opportunity. Therefore, our first goal is to ensure the
longevity of civilization for our descendants.

Here is a short list of what we must do to realize our very
rare, improbable human opportunity.

1)Bring peace to the globe.

Nationalism was the great sin of the 20th
century, causing two world wars and countless smaller conflicts. In the 21st century, nationalism is
still rampant, even resurgent in the first two decades of the new
millennium. Our job in the next century
should be to render national borders obsolete, uniting economic interests and
blurring national identity until war between nations becomes a ridiculous
idea. Global spending on the military is about 2.3% of GDP; spending on all space products and services is about 0.4% of GDP, or about 1/5 of the spending on defense. Just imagine what we could accomplish if that ratio was reversed!

Religious conflicts also need to come to an end. Over 3000 distinct religious sects exist on
Earth, generally with each one claiming to be the single true faith. This conviction of righteous certainty
continues to plague mankind in the form of religious prejudice, intolerance,
bigotry, hatred, and violence. Religious
pluralism and acceptance is necessary worldwide, in order to eliminate conflict
between faiths. Governments must be
secular in order to avoid favoritism to any single faith.

Tribalism is the
root of most human conflicts – the notion of “us” versus “them”, with thoughts
and rhetoric which de-humanizes the enemy.
The bases for that tribalism are the familiar divides of race, religion,
ethnic identity, national origin, wealth and political orientation. Tribalism itself must be recognized as the
enemy, and opposed wherever it occurs.

2)Bring prosperity to all.

We cannot realize
the full potential of mankind while a large portion of the world’ population
lives in poverty. Although great
strides have been made in reducing extreme poverty, still, between one-third to
one-half of the world’s population lives in poverty according to some measure –
without access to adequate clean water, food, or sanitation.

Health, nutrition,
sanitation and education are the minimum requirements for full realization of a
human life. If not from the morality of
fairness, then our own self-interest should motivate us to provide these things
for all of humanity. Because if we are
to realize the potential of our species, we need the best performance from all
of the workers, all of the scientists, and all of the geniuses on the
planet. If we do not provide these
things to every young person, we are missing out on the possible contributions
that we might receive.

Although extreme
poverty is diminishing, income inequality is increasing around the globe. As economist Thomas Piketty pointed out, as
long as the return on capital exceeds the rate of economic growth, the unequal
distribution of wealth will increase.
Further, automation of labor through robotics and computerization is a
threat to the global middle class, causing destruction of middle-income
jobs. The loss of honorable work is
nothing new; it has been a theme of several dystopian novels, notably Kurt
Vonnegut’s first novel, “Player Piano”, published in 1952. Providing meaningful employment to workers
will be a major economic challenge as labor is increasingly automated.

Conflict is often
rooted in inequity. The final reason
for bringing prosperity to everyone is to reduce conflict between people. People naturally understand fairness. People desire equality of opportunity, and a
decent, honorable and respected quality of life.

The elimination of
inequality includes the elimination of gender and racial discrimination. Apart from the moral imperative of fairness,
we must understand that we are unlikely to realize human potential if half of
the human race is blocked from contributing to our success.

Balancing the
distribution of wealth is difficult. It
means providing equality of opportunity.
It means balancing the meritocracy of individual achievement with
respect for all people. It means
providing meaningful and financially rewarding work to all laborers. It means managing the disproportionate return
on capital to the owners of capital with the need to distribute wealth
throughout society. By no means have we
solved these problems, or have any solution in sight. But providing honorable prosperity to
everyone is something that we must do to achieve the potential of the human
race.

3)Mitigate environmental damage.

Damage to our
environment will shorten the lifespan of our technological civilization,
reducing our chances of realizing our potential. It should now be clear to everyone that
human-induced climate change is real.
Our emissions of greenhouse gases are adding heat to the atmosphere and
changing the climate in ways that may be very damaging to many people. There is no quick fix, but we need to stabilize
or reverse climate change by 2050.
Beyond climate change, we must remediate the damage to the ecosystems of
the oceans due to overfishing and pollution.
We must also stop the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere, which is
causing a significant change in ocean acidity.
We need to achieve clean air and water, particularly in newly
industrialized developing countries which are rapidly causing damage to the
environment.

We need to achieve
our goals of environmental protection without compromising the standard of living
and economic well-being of people.

4)Continue scientific studies and space
exploration.

Obviously, we will
not explore and colonize space without further progress in science and
technology. We must continue to explore
the planets, moons and asteroids of our solar system. We need to continue to investigate the
effects of the space environment on human physiology, so we can design
spaceship environments capable of deep space flight. We are making good progress in that
direction, with concrete plans to send a manned mission to Mars.

I think an
important stepping-stone will be to mine the asteroids, or bring asteroids into
Earth orbit to provide construction materials for other ventures. The technology required for these ventures
will add to the general know-how of living and working in space.

Energy is a
significant constraint in space exploration, as it is on Earth. Small-scale nuclear fusion reactors seem
feasible, and there are a number of research companies working on the idea. When fusion energy is achieved, it will be a
milestone for space exploration, as well as the key to ending our
climate-change crisis on Earth. For
these reasons, continued funding and research into fusion power must be one of
our special priorities.

It is also not too
early to think big – an independent, self-sustaining planetary colony may require a
more accommodating environment than today’s environment on Mars or Venus. Within this century, we could begin the first
stages of terraforming Mars, Venus, or moons within our solar system. The costs might be large, and it may require
centuries, but the reward would be another home planet for mankind.

Conclusion

There is a lot to do.
But there are seven billion people capable of carrying the task forward. We need to extend the lifetime of our technological civilization, and we need to work toward colonizing other planets.

The first thing is to recognize the goal and to gain alignment of many people toward that goal.

We will not realize the potential of our species by focusing
on self-interest or national interest.
We will not get there by fighting.
We will not get there by arguing about what is the correct religion and
true form of God.

Although our entertainment about space provides inspiration, we will not achieve
human opportunity by reading science fiction, or watching Star Wars, or playing space games. It seems to me that people are satisfied with the dream, the fantasy that we are a space-faring people. We will only achieve human opportunity by actually doing things that will bring us closer to space travel.

Entrepreneur Elon Musk recognizes the value and the
fragility of human opportunity. Musk
made a fortune in Internet businesses with the purpose of acquiring enough
capital to make a difference. Musk
started the automobile company Tesla, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and mitigating environmental damage.
Musk founded the rocket company SpaceX, because Elon Musk sincerely
wants to colonize Mars. Few of us have
the abilities of Elon Musk, but everyone can do something.

Against odds of a hundred billion to one, we stand today as
perhaps the only technological civilization in the galaxy. After three and a half billion years of
evolution, we are alive at the very moment when we have the intellect and
capability to do something remarkable – to remake the galaxy into a home for earthly
life and mankind. We stand on the brink
of colonizing the stars. Whether we succeed
or fail depends on us.

The number of people in extreme poverty has been falling rapidly. In 1981, 44% of the world’s population lived
on less than $1.90 per day. By 1990,
that number was reduced to 37% of the world’s population, and by 2012, only
12.5% of the world’s population lived on $1.90 per day.

Here’s a bit of trivia for you. There is about one ton of neodymium in every large wind turbine. Neodymium is element number 60 on the ...

This blog is about economics, energy, public policy, science, and other things too important to ignore and too dreary for Facebook.

About me, consider my favorite quote about Don Quixote, from "The Man of La Mancha":

...A country gentleman, no longer young. Being retired, he has much time for books. He studies them from morn to night, and often through the night and morn again, and all he reads oppresses him; fills him with indignation at man's murderous ways toward man. He ponders the problem of how to make better a world where evil brings profit and virtue none at all; where fraud and deceit are mingled with truth and sincerity. He broods and broods and broods and broods, and finally his brains dry up. He lays down the melancholy burden of sanity...."