Latest briefs:

Welcome to the University of Birmingham's Poll of Polls for Britain's European Union referendum. From now until the vote on 23 June, we will be assessing all the major surveys of public opinion to assess what can and cannot be said with confidence about the state of the campaign.

Last week The Birmingham Brief looked at Boris Johnson's comments on President Obama's intervention in the Brexit debate. Johnson's comments about Obama's background have received much critical attention, but one unlikely to cause the shift towards the Leave campaign that some of the polls suggest. The politics of Brexit are also important. Obama and the US have their own economic and strategic interests at stake in keeping the EU together.

One might be surprised that a prominent British politician would begin a comment about US President Barack Obama with a historical lie. One might not foresee an ethnic slur against the American leader. But that is exactly what happened last week when the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, used The Sun newspaper as a platform to denounce Obama's visit to Britain

Date:

Friday 29th April 2016

2016

Welcome to the University of Birmingham's Poll of Polls for Britain's European Union referendum. From now until the vote on 23 June, we will be assessing all the major surveys of public opinion to assess what can and cannot be said with confidence about the state of the campaign.

Last week The Birmingham Brief looked at Boris Johnson's comments on President Obama's intervention in the Brexit debate. Johnson's comments about Obama's background have received much critical attention, but one unlikely to cause the shift towards the Leave campaign that some of the polls suggest. The politics of Brexit are also important. Obama and the US have their own economic and strategic interests at stake in keeping the EU together.

One might be surprised that a prominent British politician would begin a comment about US President Barack Obama with a historical lie. One might not foresee an ethnic slur against the American leader. But that is exactly what happened last week when the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, used The Sun newspaper as a platform to denounce Obama's visit to Britain

"The need to develop new procedures for drones [RPA] to operate safely in or near controlled airspace is a matter requiring urgent attention in order to ensure air safety and to assure public confidence." Birmingham Policy Commission on the Security Impact of Drones: Challenges and Opportunities for the UK, 2014.

Date:

Monday 25th April 2016

2015

Written by Joshua Baker and Professor Nicholas J. Wheeler. Announcing the nuclear deal agreed this week between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the so-called E3+3 (the EU3 of France, Germany and the United Kingdom plus the United States, Russia, and China), US President Barack Obama declared: 'This deal is not built on trust, it is built on verification.'

Written by Professor Scott Lucas. On 23 January, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah died at the age of 90 and was succeeded by his half-brother Salman, 79, one of the last sons of Saudi Arabia's founder Ibn Saud. The regime is keeping a watchful eye on dissent, including in the mainly Shia Eastern Province, and on internal security amid concerns over returning fighters from conflicts such as the Syrian crisis.

Written by Dr Richard Connolly. The recent crash in oil prices is causing much anxiety in oil-producing states. From Iran to Venezuela, many have come to rely on elevated oil prices to fuel economic growth and support government spending.

Date:

Friday 23rd January 2015

2014

Earlier this week, it was reported by The Wall Street Journal that President Barack Obama had sent a secret letter to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urging him to accept the terms of a comprehensive agreement with the United States and other major world powers on the issue of Iran's nuclear programme.

On 16 October, the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, announced that part of the UK Reaper drone fleet would be deployed in Iraq to support coalition efforts against the terror group ISIL. This week, he confirmed they would also be flying surveillance missions over Syria. These events mark the first operational use of UK Reapers outside Afghanistan and represent a significant and timely development in the UK government's stated policy towards 'drone warfare'.

On 26 September, British parliament approved the Cameron government's request for authority to carry out air strikes inside Iraq on the Islamic State terror group. Four days later, two Tornado jets on an 'armed surveillance' mission dropped the first bombs, hitting a jihadist heavy-weapon position and an armed pick-up truck.

Written by Professor Colin Thain. Whatever the outcome of today's referendum of 3.5 million voters in Scotland, Friday 19 September 2014 will be an epoch-making day in the politics of these islands. For once, the hyperbole is justified.

Written by Dr Asaf Siniver. The most depressing aspect of the current round of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, beyond the death toll and the human suffering, is the sheer predictability of this crisis. As far as contemporary armed conflicts go, few could match the intensity, inevitability and perpetuity of the ongoing struggle between the militant group Hamas and the Israeli government.

This week marked the 20th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide. More than 800,000 Rwandans, mostly from the minority ethnic Tutsi group, were killed by their Hutu neighbours while the UN force in the country and Western powers looked on.

On 29 June 2013, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, signed a law banning the 'propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations' among people below the age of consent (18 years). For breaking the law, especially in the mass media or on the internet, individuals can be fined up to 1 million roubles. Foreign citizens can be detained for up to 15 days and deported back to their country, in addition to being fined up to 100,000 roubles.

Written by Professor John Raine. For almost two decades now the statistics for recorded crime in England and Wales have been falling. And even though there has always been a difference, of some magnitude, between the numbers gathered through the British Crime Survey – a large-scale sample of the public's experiences of crime victimisation – and the (persistently smaller) statistics compiled by the police, there has been broad agreement at least in the downward trend.

Date:

Wednesday 29th January 2014

2013

Following the failure of the Ukrainian government to sign an Association Agreement (AA), a pillar of the European Union's much-vaunted Eastern Partnership with Ukraine at its heart, protestors spilled onto the streets of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities to demand the rescinding of this decision.

Written by Professor John Raine. The 'Plebgate' saga, which has now drawn apologies to Andrew Mitchell from three chief constables, has once again raised questions about police integrity and dented public trust and confidence in policing more generally.

When President George W. Bush handed over the reins of US foreign policy to Barack Obama, he reportedly made two requests. First, that the incoming US president maintains the covert cyber attacks against Iran, and secondly, that he continues the counter-terrorist drone campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Not only did Obama follow through on this request, but during his time in office US drone strikes have more than doubled.

Edgbaston, best known for cricket, is politically interesting for two reasons – it was once the seat of the then Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, and this week, it is celebrating the fact it is the only UK constituency to have returned a female MP to Parliament for 60 consecutive years.

It is easy to be cynical over the value of summits such as the G8 meeting recently concluded in Northern Ireland. After all, this year's meeting was preceded by the erection of fake shop fronts in Northern Ireland to disguise empty businesses, and when Birmingham played host in 1998 the city council sprayed the grass verges green.

Local elections will be held today in 34 councils, for 2,362 seats in 27 county councils and seven mainland unitaries. There are also two mayoral elections. Gains and losses will be measured in terms both of seats won and which parties have overall control of which councils.

While it is sometimes tempting to see the regime of Kim Jong-eun as superficially comical, with its extravagant uniforms, dynastic worship and wild rhetoric, it is also important not to underestimate the serious risk of miscalculation and military escalation inherent within the current crisis. While there are many aspects of the present situation that are familiar to observers of the hermit state, there are also enough differences to give concern that this manufactured crisis could end differently.

Benedict XVI told the faithful gathered in St Peter's Square on 24 February 2013 that his retirement 'doesn't mean abandoning the church'. Many Catholics, though, including those who are not church goers, consider his unexpected resignation as the Vicar of Christ, an ill-thought out decision that will lead to an irreparable desacralization of the role.

A high profile political resignation following a legal scandal, allegations of sexual misconduct, two political 'partners' tearing at each other's throats, controversial candidates grabbing the headlines for the wrong reasons and the future positions of the Prime Minister and his Deputy placed under the microscope.

The Electricity Market Reform (EMR) has been billed as a measure to decarbonise the electricity economy whilst at the same time stopping the electricity system collapsing as old coal and nuclear power stations come off line. Unfortunately the Government is selecting policy mechanisms that give a market advantage to the electricity majors.

New Year's Eve is traditionally a time for celebration, reflection and looking forward with optimism. As Czechs and Slovaks mark what they call 'silvestr/silvester' by popping champagne corks and setting off fireworks, some will reflect not just on the dawn of a new year, but twenty years of separate statehood.

Date:

Tuesday 8th January 2013

2012

Is there an ideal electorate system? As a recent Birmingham Brief demonstrated, we are often faced with a simple binary choice: do we want 'strong government' which can claim an empowering mandate, or do we want a government that represents, however messily, 'the will of the people'? If we want the former, in the UK at least, we have persisted with a first-past-the-post system. From time-to-time, though, we have had a dark night of the soul, wondered at the fairness of governments' claiming a mandate from a minority of voters actually supporting them, and flirted with alternatives.

On 14 November, 2012, an Israeli drone strike killed Ahmed Jabari, the head of the military wing of Hamas in Gaza. The sharply escalating violence in the aftermath of this so-called targeted killing, while particularly costly in human life, is part of a seemingly unending violent confrontation in the region: according to a timeline of the conflict, over the past almost four years (since the conclusion of Israel's ground offensive in Gaza) more than 300 Palestinians and 20 Israelis have been killed, while in the past two years, some 800 missiles have been launched from Gaza into southern Israel.

On 01 October 2012 Georgia, a small post-Soviet state on the Black Sea coast with a population of 4.6 million people, conducted its 8th Parliamentary elections since 1990. The pre-election campaign was closely watched by the West and the number of international observers monitoring the elections was allegedly the country's largest-ever.

According to Sir Humphrey Appleby in the 1980s BBC sitcom "Yes Prime Minister", the Trident missile system was "the Rolls Royce of nuclear weapons, the sort of deterrent that one would buy from Harrods." As the decision point looms for the replacement of this capability, questions are being asked whether Britain can afford a new Rolls, whether it should instead go for a more modest system, perhaps more of a Ford Mondeo deterrent, or whether indeed it should go green and eschew the need for such a costly and controversial system altogether.

Avery Brundage, the former President of the International Olympic Committee, famously stated over 50 years ago that sport transcends politics and the former has no place in the dealings of the latter. Sport has always been inextricably bound up with politics, but nowadays the hosting of sports mega-events has become competitive in its own right, as potential hosts weigh up the benefits against the substantial costs of putting on such occasions.

Why has a solution to the decade long nuclear stand-off with Iran proved so elusive? Based on ongoing research into the dynamics of nuclear rivalries, and the role of trust in international politics, we argue that the main obstacle to solving the crisis over Iran's nuclear program is that neither side believes that it is possible to reassure the other without this reducing their own security. Recent talks in Istanbul suggest that a new path to mutual security might be opening up, but there are still challenges ahead.

Angela Merkel's second term as chancellor, which began in 2009, has been a difficult one. On the home front, there has been much infighting inside her CDU-FDP (conservative-liberal) government, her FDP coalition partner is weak and unpopular, and her own party, the CDU, has lost ground in important regional elections. Merkel's main challenge, however, remains the ongoing crisis in the eurozone.

Last week, ten English cities voted on whether to alter the dynamics of leadership in their authorities and replace the current leader and cabinet formula with that of elected mayor, deputy, and cabinet. The rejection was almost unanimous, only Bristol registered a yes vote – but with a majority of less than seven per cent – and more than 60% of voters in Coventry, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield, and Wakefield prioritised the status quo above change.

The landmark verdict on April 26th against the former Liberian President, Charles Taylor, is an important warning for those who perpetrate war crimes. Finding Taylor guilty of war-time atrocities during the war in Sierra Leone between 1991 and 2002, shows that no-one can be above the law.

Why has a solution to the decade long nuclear stand-off with Iran proved so elusive? Based on ongoing research into the dynamics of nuclear rivalries, and the role of trust in international politics, we argue that the main obstacle to solving the crisis over Iran's nuclear program is that neither side believes that it is possible to reassure the other without this reducing their own security. Recent talks in Istanbul suggest that a new path to mutual security might be opening up, but there are still challenges ahead.

2011 was a truly historical turning point – it was a year which fundamentally changed the European Union's (EU) previous assumption about the Middle East and North African (MENA) region – that the fall of Arab autocrats was not imminent and that the dictators of the region would remain the partners to cooperate with in the near future. The Arab Spring events in Tunisia, Egypt, and beyond since December 2010 have successfully challenged the institutional order. Egypt is now embarking on a long and uncertain journey towards a more democratic future. But questions remain regarding the role of the EU towards nascent democracies.

Afghanistan is rarely out of the headlines — and seemingly for the wrong reasons. At the beginning of March, six UK military personnel were killed by a Taliban attack in what was the single worse loss of life for UK ground forces since the launch of the NATO–led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. Birmingham brief written by Professor Mark Webber, Professor of International Politics.

The London Olympics will undoubtedly be a spectacular success and bring with it a number of memorable sporting moments. Beyond the two weeks of action, however, it is worth reflecting on the increasingly political use of sport by a wide variety of states throughout the world. In recent years, there has been a shift from advanced capitalist states to developing, small or 'emerging' states who have queued up to stage a sporting mega-event.

Having transparent mechanisms for distribution of global aid is hugely important. It allows scrutiny to ensure money is used effectively. The global aid landscape has changed drastically with the rise of southern donors like India and China. This makes it even more important that transparency for public flows of development aid should be non-negotiable, irrespective of whether or not they are official development assistance.

With thousands of public sector workers striking this week and the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister both speaking at the Local Government Conference in Birmingham the future of public services has rarely seemed a more divisive or topical issue.

George Osborne has doggedly fought back at critics of the government's austerity strategy, repeating the mantra that sustaining the 'policy credibility' of UK plc with financial markets and investors is the paramount challenge facing this parliament. This week the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been able to draw on an apparent endorsement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for his agenda of public spending cuts and the Coalition's broader economic policy choices. But is the IMF's 'endorsement' all that the Chancellor makes it out to be?

Now that the dust has somewhat settled after the initial euphoria, triumphalism, gloating, and relief that followed Barack Obama's announcement of the death of Osama Bin Laden, more sober analysis is beginning of the broader implications of the end of a 15-year manhunt.

The Department for International Development (DFID) recently published a Multilateral Aid Review (MAR), critically assessing 43 different international organisations (IOs), agencies and private groups. It has concurrently conducted a Bilateral Aid Review (BAR) of its own operations. This brief shows that both reviews indicate an important shift in UK aid policies, whereby future development assistance will be based on the UK's vision of development rather than more traditional global indicators.

Recent events in Libya and Cote d'Ivoire have once again highlighted the issue of conflict in Africa, raising the question of whether the continent is capable of addressing crises without international intervention.

As the crisis in Libya unfolds and as the US, France and the UK get potentially sucked ever deeper into yet another disastrous military intervention, policy debates and decisions appear to be driven primarily by humanitarian concern. Unsurprisingly, supporters and opponents alike use the humanitarian argument—one side seeks to stop a murderous dictator from slaughtering his own people, the other is concerned about the inevitable civilian casualties and 'collateral damage' caused by airstrikes, no matter how sophisticated the military technology behind them might be.

Many keen supporters of electoral reform and, indeed, any constitutional reform agenda which aims to strengthen processes of representation and accountability, may find it difficult to feel overly excited about the prospect of the introduction of the Alternative Vote (AV) for UK general elections.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's announcement yesterday (1 February), that he will not seek re-election but will stay in power until the presidential elections in September to ensure a smooth transition period, is unlikely to satisfy the demand of the public for his immediate removal from power.

On 9 January polling started in Southern Sudan in a referendum to determine whether one of the largest states in Africa will divide. The result of the referendum is so certain that the South's Independence Day has already been set for 9 July, six months after the start of polling.

Date:

Thursday 13th January 2011

2010

The issue currently at the top of Germany's political agenda is the future of the Eurozone and, related to this, the future of the European Union (EU). Historically, German politicians have tended to avoid speaking about the EU. German voters, like voters elsewhere, show very little interest in the topic, but the bailout of insolvent EU member states–most notably Greece–have made it an issue of considerable importance amongst German voters.

Misguided, irresponsible, reprehensible – these are just some of the words used by critics to describe the latest set of releases on the website, WikiLeaks. But is this more than hurt pride and should we really care one way or another?

The Coalition Government's proposal to cut £162 million funding for 450 school sports partnerships offers an intriguing case study of this era of new party politics and policy-making. Two points lend weight to the argument that this is a rushed decision made by an ill-informed minister, Education Secretary Michael Gove.

On 16th September Andrew Mitchell MP, Secretary of State for International Development, made a speech about conflict and development at the Royal College of Defence Studies. In this speech he argued that as part of the government's Strategic Defence Security Review (SDSR) there should be a reassessment of the UK's response to overseas conflict which puts development at the heart of an integrated approach that both protects the world's most vulnerable people and protects the UK from external threats.

I always tell my students that, when sitting an exam, they have to answer the question that has been set rather than one that they feel comfortable with. No analogy is ever perfect, but this one sums up pretty neatly the outcome of the deliberations by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which, by ten votes to four, found that the Declaration of Independence (DoI) of Kosovo adopted on 17 February 2008 did not violate international law.

Following the third of the historic Prime Ministerial debates – staged, of course, here at the University of Birmingham – the possibility of the election producing a single-party Conservative majority government increased – though marginally – for the first time in weeks. Similarly, the likelihood of a less conclusive result reduced somewhat; presumably to the relief of those who have been predicting instability, legislative deadlock and parliamentary collapse as the probable outcomes of a hung parliament.

In a month of election campaigning the issue of international development and aid policy was barely referred to by any of the three major parties. So what will the new government mean for UK aid policy?

Commentators are currently focused on the extraordinary Conservative-Liberal coalition, and whether it will deliver a 'new politics'. But the emerging contest over Labour's future may prove even more significant for the long-term shape of politics in Britain.

This week, the national political and policy landscape for the UK has changed, as demonstrated by the sight of David Cameron sharing a press conference podium with Nick Clegg. However, this changed political and policy landscape applies to UK Local Governance as well.

Although no groups have as yet claimed responsibility for the two suicide attacks the Russian security services, the FSB, have indicated that groups linked to the North Caucasus may have been behind the bombings at the Lubyanka and Park Kultury metro stations in Moscow.

The last Budget before the General Election shows that the Treasury and Prime Minister have not agreed on a comprehensive medium-term strategy to deal with the public finances. By not giving targeted and detailed cuts in spending, the Chancellor has left all the really difficult decisions until after the General Election. It is a cautious but modest political budget.

Since 1996, when the then World Bank president spoke out against the 'cancer of corruption', foreign aid donors and national governments in many developing countries have been trying to find workable solutions to often systemic problems with corruption. Corruption has been seen by many as one of the biggest challenges facing the developing world: reducing funds available for poverty reduction, increasing inequality, destroying or stultifying democratic institutions and, at worst, leading to conflict and global insecurity.