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Cancel Successful Projects, Not Failing Ones

Government oversight bodies take great pride in canceling failing projects. They consider it a measure of success. What are oversight bodies for? Eliminating wasteful investments, of course. At first glance this might seem to be consistent with an agile mindset. Among the advantages of an agile approach are the transparency given to stakeholders and the ability to manage risk by working in increments. Only the current increment is at risk, since the project can be stopped before the next increment begins. Problems are exposed through transparency and oversight can take advantage of the incremental approach to stop a failing project.

This way of thinking is a mistake. The project was started because of a mission need. Canceling the project leaves that mission need unmet. Oversight has failed in two senses: (1) it failed to make the project successful, and (2) it did not allow a mission need to be met, one that was important enough to have invested in. If, in fact, the mission need is important, then a new project will have to be started to address that same need. The new project will have the overhead of starting up a new program, thereby wasting more money. Instead of canceling the program, the oversight body should shift the course of the current program to make it more successful.

But isn’t that throwing more money into a wasteful program? No – what has been spent so far is a sunk cost, and there may be some salvageable assets. Doesn’t the program’s failure to date mean that it is poorly managed? Not necessarily, but if it is, the oversight body should simply force the program management to change, not cancel the program. In many cases the problem is not management, but circumstances outside their control. The oversight body should help the program overcome those outside forces. Terminating the program is just a way to punish the program’s management, and adds waste for the government as a whole.

Why cancel a successful program? If a program has delivered substantial value to date, then the oversight body should consider whether the remaining work of the program is necessary. If the program’s work was appropriately prioritized, then there should be diminishing returns to continuing the program. Oversight should constantly reassess the value of the remaining work, and see if the agency’s needs have changed in a way that the remaining work is no longer worth the investment. If the oversight body decides that this is the case, it should cancel the remainder of the program and rejoice – for this it can legitimately claim an oversight success!