Suicide Bombing, Mogadishu, Somalia

From The Associated Press

MOGADISHU, Somalia -- militants detonated a truck
bomb Tuesday in front of the Ministry of Education in
Mogadishu, killing at least 70 people, wounding dozens and
shattering a relative calm that had prevailed in the Somali
capital for weeks.

The bomb blew up after coming to a halt at a security
checkpoint. It left blackened corpses on the debris-strewn
street and set other vehicles alight. Uniformed soldiers were
seen dragging the wounded away.

Ali Muse, the chief of Mogadishu's ambulance service, told The
Associated Press that at least 70 people died and at least 42
others were wounded.

The al-Qaida-linked group al-Shabab immediately claimed
responsibility for Tuesday's attack on a website it uses.

It was the biggest attack in Somalia's capital since al-Shabab
withdrew most of its forces in August amid an offensive by
African Union forces. The group had been expected to fight back
with guerrilla-style attacks, including car bombs. Several car
bombs have been defused or exploded before reaching their
targets in recent weeks.

Ali Hussein, a police officer in Mogadishu, said the vehicle
blew up after pulling up to a checkpoint at the entrance to the
Ministry of Education.

The GCP event was set for 08:00 to 14:00 on 4 October. I could
not find the time of the explosion, but it was during daylight
and business hours.
The result is Chisquare 21188.869 on 21600 df, for p = 0.977
and Z = -1.988. As the graph shows, there is a very consistent
negative deviation over the 6 hours set for the event.

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish
signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be
largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.