When the Texans slumped so badly two seasons ago, going from the cusp of the playoffs to 6-10 irrelevance, almost everyone either wanted Gary Kubiak’s hide or they wanted it covered in tar and feathers. And the perfect bloke to replace him — not that he had expressed the slightest interest in the task — was said to be former Steelers coach Bill Cowher.

Kubiak, the haters chorus sang, was just a hack, guaranteeing mediocrity for all eternity. But Cowher? There was a true leader of men who had re-burnished the Steelers’ gold.

Of course, anyone who had done his or her homework would have observed that Cowher needed 14 seasons to return the Lombardi Trophy to Pittsburgh. Note, too, that he retired a year later after the Steelers stumbled to 8-8 and didn’t make the playoffs.

As hard as building a successful team can be — Kubiak needed seven seasons to finally coax a playoff appearance, and victory, from the Texans — maintaining same is arguably the far more daunting task.

Although the Texans appear poised to contend for a championship after cracking the NFL’s Elite Eight last season, the odds aren’t in their favor. Recent trends suggest they’re far more likely to tumble backward, at least for a season, rather than take the next step because that’s what has happened to an overwhelming majority of teams in their shoes.

Since 1999, when the franchise formerly known as the Houston Oilers finally, and improbably, landed in the Super Bowl as the Tennessee Titans, a head coach has led his team into the playoffs for the first time on nearly 40 occasions. Yet only six of those teams took the next step the following year — and just one of them, Pittsburgh in 2008, went on to win a title.

The latter was a unique circumstance, too. First-year coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers bore more than a passing resemblance to Cowher’s long-in-coming Super Bowl champions of 2005. Tomlin had hardly started from scratch.

From breakout to broken

At the other end of the happiness-to-heartbreak spectrum: 25 times, a breakout season such as the Texans celebrated in 2011 was followed by a broken one, with no playoff berth to be had. It happened in Kansas City under three different coaches and also thrice in Dallas, to both Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips, who sprang forward only to fall back on two occasions.

Parcells’ first season in Dallas produced a 10-6 record and a trip, albeit a short one, to the postseason. In Parcells’ second year, the Cowboys slumped to 6-10, and he struck out the next two seasons, too, before throwing in the towel and retiring. With Phillips in charge in 2007, Dallas went 13-3 but lost its first playoff game. After the Cowboys failed to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record the next season, they rebounded to 11-5 — but lost again straight away in the playoffs — before collapsing in 2010, when Phillips was fired after a 1-7 start.

Dick Vermeil has unique experience on both sides of the coin. In 1978, he took over in Philadelphia, where the Eagles hadn’t been to the playoffs in 15 years. Vermeil got them to the wild-card round in in his third season, the division round the next year and the Super Bowl the following season.

“The hardest step is that breakout year,” Vermeil said. “Once you’ve had it, the entire organization acquires a more positive attitude and you reap rewards from that.”

Vermeil’s second chapter as a head coach years later produced an even more dramatic script. The Rams had endured seven straight losing seasons plus a move to St. Louis when he signed on with them. It also took him three years to get the Rams to the playoffs, but, once there, they went the distance, winning Super Bowl XXXIV behind Kurt Warner and “The Greatest Show on Turf.”

Equal parts exhilarated and exhausted, Vermeil retired soon thereafter (“a big mistake — I shouldn’t have,” he admits today), but Kansas City lured him back for a third go a few years later. Again, that third season proved a charm. The Chiefs went 13-3 and reached the division round. But that was as far as they went. Two seasons and no playoff spots later, Vermeil retired for good.

His Chiefs regressed in part, he suggested, because of tougher schedules, a variable a coach has no control over.

If the Texans are recession-proof, it will be because they are built on the soundest of foundations, possessing a dominant, ball-control offense to go with Phillips’ havoc-wreaking defense. The latter prospers in large part because the former is so good at playing keepaway. They won the league’s possession-time title — on average, more than 32 minutes — in 2011 despite playing six games with rookie quarterback T. J. Yates.

Underdogs no more

However, the pressure of expectations seemingly complicates things hugely, as history indicates. So will a more perilous schedule, which the Texans confront in 2012. The defense could be stronger than it was a year ago yet still not fare as well because of the caliber of competition.

“We were kind of underdogs last year and a little under the radar,” left tackle Duane Brown said. “Now we’ve got the nation’s attention and a lot of prime-time games. People are going to be watching us close. Teams are going to come after us with their ‘A’ game every week. Nobody’s going to be sleeping on us.”
But, following off what Vermeil said, Brown added: “Man, we’re hungrier than we’ve ever been. We know what (success) tastes like now.”

Texans free safety Danieal Manning wasn’t around when the Bears got to the division round in 2005, but the next year, in his rookie season, they won the NFC Championship Game. Not that it was the start of anything grand, however. A 7-9 season followed.

“Staying there,” Manning said, “is the same struggle as getting there. It starts in the classroom, (continues) on the practice field and on game day. You’ve got to keep doing the same things every day that got you there in the first place.”
Far easier said than done, it would appear.

dale.robertson@chron.com

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Repeat of success not an easy feat
Trying to improve on his first playoff season will be a daunting task for Texans coach Gary Kubiak. Only 16 percent of the coaches over the past dozen years who led their teams into the postseason for the first time were able to build on that success the following year.

Teams for the Texans to emulate

Bears
2005 11-5 Reached the division round in Lovie Smith’s second season.
2006 13-3 The Bears went to the Super Bowl as the defense improved dramatically, climbing from 25th to 10th overall. The offense, under Rex Grossman of all people, became the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Colts
2002 10-6 Reached the wild-card round in Tony Dungy’s first season.
2003 12-4 Reached the AFC Championship Game as Peyton Manning flowered, throwing 29 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and leading the league in completion percentage. The defense also tightened up.

Vikings
2008 10-6 Reached the wild-card round in Brad Childress’ third season.
2009 12-4 Came within an overtime loss of winning the NFC championship as a good defense got better. Brett Favre proved a major upgrade over Gus Frerotte.

Eagles
2000 11-5 Reached the division round in Andy Reid’s second season.
2001 11-5 Donovan McNabb emerged as an elite quarterback in his second season as the consistent Eagles, who never lost back-to-back, reached the NFC Championship Game for the first of four consecutive years, finally reaching the Super Bowl in 2004.

Worst-case examples

Raiders
2002 9-7 Reached the Super Bowl in Bill Callahan’s first season.
2003 4-12 Quarterback Rich Gannon’s season ended with an injury in the seventh game and the defense collapsed as the Raiders finished 2-10. They haven’t returned to the playoffs since.

Bears
2001 11-5 Reached the division round in Dick Jauron’s third season.
2002 4-12 The defense fell from first to 25th in points allowed as the Bears dropped eight in a row after a 2-0 start. They missed the playoffs the next two seasons, too, before Lovie Smith got them point in the right direction again.

Jets
2006 10-6 Reached the wild-card round in Eric Mangini’s first season
2007 4-12 Quarterback Chad Pennington started slowly, then was injured, and the defense struggled as the Jets got off to a 1-8 start.

Redskins
2005 10-6 Reached the division round in Joe Gibbs’ second season.
2006 5-11 Quarterback Mark Brunell started poorly and eventually got replaced by Jason Campbell while the defense plunged from ninth in 2005 to 31st.