Monday, October 15, 2007

Storm Track Appeasement: How to Boil an Infidel Frog

Islamist are on a roll – the EmpireStateBuilding bathed in Islamic green as today’s example. The Islamist are well versed how to boil a frog. In this case – the infidels.

For those of you who are not aware of the boiling frog process, it goes like this. You can’t throw a frog into a pot of boiling water. He’d jump right out. So, you put him in a pot of cold water and slowly, very slowly,turn up the heat until it’s too late and he boils.

The Iranians have been slowly boiling the free world’s frog now for some time and they’re about to get what they want. Clare Lopez, a strategic policy and intelligence expert with a focus on Middle East, homeland security, national defense, and counterterrorism issues has written a very revealing article on how the process worked. I’ve pulled the most pertinent parts that boil the frog.

As the United States and Iran move ever closer to the endgame of an exceptionally hostile 28 year confrontation, it might be useful to step back from the heated rhetoric of 2007 to consider how successfully Iran has managed to string things along this far without precipitating an actual military strike by the U.S.

We need to recognize that the clerics who run Iran's totalitarian theocracy are past masters of denial and deception, mind war, and psychological operations. The ideal outcome of such tactics is achievement of one's national objectives, the bending of the opponent to one's will, without the use of force or coercion-in fact, without the opponent even realizing that the outcome was imposed from without and not his own desired outcome all along.

Boiling the frog. Remember, Iran has been an enemy of the US in an undeclared war since the 1979 coup d'etat of attacking the American Embassy in Tehran and holding hostage dozens of our diplomats for over a year. She uses the Iranian nuclear weapon program as a prime example of boiling our frog.

Let us begin to solve this puzzle by looking at Iran's nuclear weapons program. This is a program that the Ayatollah Khomeini revived in the 1980s as the endless, brutal war with Iraq entered its eighth year with no end in sight.

How did they keep such a secret from public knowledge for so long? Many of Iran's clerical leadership studied directly under the Soviet KGB and proved apt students of their denial and deception, mind war, and psychological operations tactics. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for instance, is a graduate of the KGB training school, Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow.

Once the world realized, thanks to the Iranian resistance, what the Iranian regime had been up to for all those years, however, Tehran changed tack on a dime. The next phase of its denial and deception, mind war, and psychological operations campaign began. With satellite photography showing nuclear facilities at the Saghand uranium mines, Isfahan conversion plant, Natanz enrichment site, and Arak heavy water plutonium project now posted to the Internet, Iran plausibly could no longer deny the existence of its nuclear program. Moreover, in reluctant response to a steady barrage of NCRI revelations, the IAEA eventually was prodded to mount a desultory schedule of inspections.

What Iran's canny leadership could and did deny, however, was the essential nature of its efforts to build a forbidden weapons program. Taken by surprise by the NCRI revelations (that were based on the extensive clandestine intelligence collection program inside Iran run by NCRI member organization, the Mujahedeen-e Khalq or MEK), the mullahs were forced to fall back.

They have now admitted that they actually did have a nuclear program, but had concealed it from international authorities at the IAEA for fourteen years because they feared that American and other countries' animosity towards their regime might deny them their NPT-given right to develop a legitimate nuclear power industry. Thus, the mullahs lunged quickly for the sympathy of Third World and other rogue regime elements whom they intuitively understood would applaud their defiance of Western and international organizations labeled as 'oppressive.' In this way, the new regime line deftly positioned the Iranian nuclear program within the legitimate confines of the NPT, but at the same time garnered instant international support by self-designating Iran as an oppressed member of the developing world 'victim class'.

Incredibly, much of the world bought it all, lock, stock, and barrel! With Europeans in the lead, the international community rushed to proffer dialogue, incentives, and negotiations naively intended to secure Iran firmly within a largely illusiory system of voluntary restrictions on nuclear weapons proliferation and development. Incredulous protestations by American Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton and others served mainly to confirm Iran's persecution complex. This is mind war conducted at a very sophisticated level indeed.

The real protagonists in this saga of maneuver and deception are the MEK/NCRI. A steady procession of their revelations, many of them eventually validated by the IAEA and other methods, continued to expose Iran's massive construction projects, now shown to include underground, hardened bunkers and tunnels obviously designed to conceal and protect a nuclear program that Iran stubbornly, but with increasing difficulty, tried to insist was for 'peaceful purposes.' So, Iran's D&D, mind war, and psy ops teams changed gears again.

As speculation about an eventual Israeli or U.S. military strike against Iran's nuclear weapons facilities swirled with increasing intensity in the 2006-2007 timeframe, word went out from Tehran that the deeply-buried and concrete-reinforced bunkers were out of reach for anything short of tactical nuclear weapons. But if either country were foolish enough to try the kind of military strike that took out Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981, Iran was prepared to launch devastating missile attacks against Israel, unleash Hizballah operational cells across the Western world, and intensify lethal assistance to terrorist groups fighting against U.S. and coalition troops in Iraq.

And once again, many in the U.S. and elsewhere bought it, prefering to accept a diagnosis of impotence rather than challenge the arrogance of the Iranian regime.Regime change was dismissed as 'too hard', 'unrealistic'. Journal and op-ed pieces began to appear and slick Iranian 'experts' suddenly swarmed the media to speculate how best to 'contain' and 'deter' a nuclear-armed Iran.'Living with a nuclear Iran' became the mantra of radio talk shows, think tank panel presentations, and even found an echo within.

The Iranian mind war operation thus celebrated a seminal victory over its despised international adversaries without having to fire a single shot. By clever application of denial and deception, mind war, and psychological operations tactics, the Iranian regime succeeded in changing global perceptions about its nuclear program. After being caught red-handed of violating the provisions of the nuclear NPT over a fourteen year period, Iran was able to gain the total acquiescence of the international community for the concept of an Iranian nuclear power program and, even more stunning, an acceptance of a nuclear weapons-armed Iran that is allied with al-Qa'eda and a horde of other terrorist groups.

Incredible as it may seem, Iran has shifted the thinking of world leaders completely away from its culpability for having and concealing a secret nuclear weapons program and into a subservient position from which it is the party deterred from even considering military strikes against Iran.

The beauty of Iran's mind war victory is that neither the U.S. nor the international community even seem to realize it's been maneuvered into total alignment with Iran's ideologically-driven objectives for geo-strategic expansionism.

Infidel cuisses de grenouilles, anyone?

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