Diaries

With Bill Connelly recently releasing his returning production rankings (link below), I wanted to take an admittedly more simplistic look at returning production on our schedule and in the Big Ten. I've started with the offenses and might do a defensive version if this is well-received.

I think the best barometer for what a team returns on offense is the raw percentage of yards produced from the previous season. For the purposes of this exercise, I have factored in Shea Patterson's 2017 statistics as if he were to be declared eligible in the fall, because by most accounts he will be. Numbers for every team in the conference and on our schedule in the chart below, sorted by Total Percent Returning.

Team

2018 Returning Pass Yds/2017 Pass Yds

2018 Returning Rush Yds/2017 Rush Yds

2018 Reurning Rec Yds/2017 Rec Yds

2018 Return Off. Production/2017 Off. Production

Total Percent Off. Production Returning

Michigan

2931/2259

1805/2310

2078/2226

6814/6795

100%

Wisconsin

2689/2689

3025/3121

2011/2689

7725/8499

91%

Purdue

3270/3270

1944/1970

2158/3270

7372/8510

87%

MSU

2793/2798

1614/2182

2289/2798

6696/7778

86%

SMU

3789/3823

2396/2397

1502/38/23

7686/10043

77%

Maryland

1721/1940

1881/1940

840/1940

4442/5820

76%

WMU

1978/1978

1469/2697

1584/1978

5031/6653

76%

NW

2873/3040

746/2264

1917/3040

5536/8344

66%

Iowa

2473/2473

305/1810

1689/2473

4467/6756

66%

OSU

626/3679

2607/3405

3659/3679

6892/10763

64%

PSU

3736/3772

939/2212

1404/3772

6079/9756

62%

ND

2326/2326

1598/3501

1099/2326

5023/8153

62%

Illinois

382/2098

1082/1267

1527/2098

2991/5463

55%

Indiana

1252/3188

1476/1561

1493/3188

4221/7937

53%

Minnesota

0/1513

1371/2178

1186/1513

2557/5213

49%

Nebraska

192/3330

1345/1290

2297/3330

38347950

48%

Rutgers

676/1387

454/1765

741/1387

1871/4539

41%

Some Notes:

Obviously this shows how important it is that Shea be declared eligible. Without him, we return only 672 passing yards, which drops us to 67% returning overall (there's a slight chance that would cause Wilton to come back, which would put us at 76%). Some may point out that Shea accumulated his passing yards in a different system with different teammates, so it might not be accurate to simply transfer 100% of his production to our team for this exercise, and that is a fair critique. That being said, I think the larger point with including Shea's numbers is that Michigan is bringing in a guy who has started 10 games in arguably the best conference in the country - that is a huge talent and experience boost to an offense that is now plenty experienced outside of the QB position.

Wisconsin brings back nearly everyone from the 41st ranked S&P offense. The only major loss is obviously Fumagalli. Fumagalli was Hornibrook's go to, so we will see if that affects their passing game. They do get Quintez Cephus back from injury, however.

Purdue loses their top two receivers, but brings back everyone else. Jeff Brohm should see more improvement this year and Purdue probably gets up to 8-4 or 9-3. A couple big boys in the conference need to make sure not to overlook them this year...or do overlook them and get upset, that's fine with me.

Michigan State returns a lot as well, but they are dangerously thin at RB. Michigan also returns a higher percentage of receiving yards than MSU, which Connelly believes is most indicative of offensive improvement.

Ohio State's numbers are deceiving. They lost JT Barrett who had a great statistical year, which puts a huge dent in their returning passing yards and a significant dent in returning rush yards. However, in limited action, Haskins actually put up better numbers than JT, and, to make that even scarier, nearly 100% of OSU's receiving yards return. They lost far more on defense than they did on offense, but OSU's offense is going to be a problem this year as long Haskins transitions smoothly to full-time starter.

The poor get poorer. Minnesota, Nebraska, and Rutgers are the only teams on this list that return fewer than 50% of offensive production. PJ Fleck has no Quarterback returning that has thrown a pass, and Scott Frost barely has one at Nebraska. Meanwhile, I had no idea that last year's pretty bad Rutgers was actually very experienced. Rutgers is hoping that losing bad seniors is actually addition by subtraction (except they lost an impressive RB in Gus Edwards and the electric Janarion Grant, so probably not).

Finally, Notre Dame returns both QBs (one was okay, one was pretty subpar as a passer) who played last year, but returns less than half of both rushing and receiving yards, and are even thinner than MSU is at RB. Plus, this chart has not taken into account Offensive Line losses, which Notre Dame has suffered in losing two probable first rounders in LG Nelson and LT McGlinchey. I think they are going to struggle mightily to move the ball against us in Week 1. Penn State is in a similar situation with their QB (who is actually good) returning, but the vast majority of rushing and receiving yards departing, and they should see an offensive set back year as well.

Analysis: Michigan’s forecheck has been great throughout the weekend and it was on display again in the first period. They did not let Notre Dame out of their zone very often and created a number of solid chances.

Looking at their numbers overall, this is a great offensive performance. They took a lot of attempts and got into the House area for almost half of them. There is a reason that Cale Morris is a Hobey candidate, as was evident this evening. Michigan could have had a few more goals with as many good looks as they had, but Morris stole the show. For their lone goal, Dancs forced a DZTO on the boards, Marody dished to Calderone, and Calderone sniped one just off of Morris’s glove and into the net, therby concluding the scoring.

When Georgia Tech came to Ann Arbor that day, the visitors from Atlanta said they wouldn’t play the game unless Michigan benched its best player, an African-American from Detroit named Willis Ward. Teams from the South refused to play against teams from the North if they allowed a black player on the field, so Georgia Tech made the demand that Michigan had to bench Ward.

U-M athletic director Fielding H. Yost, the son of a Confederate soldier, agreed to the racist demand. He made the decision to bench Ward, and wouldn’t even allow him inside Michigan Stadium that day. The decision infuriated his teammates, most especially his best friend on the team, Gerald Ford. Ford threatened to quit the team in protest, and agreed to play only after Ward personally asked him to.

The story of Willis Ward, Gerald Ford and the 1934 Michigan-Georgia Tech game was the subject of the Emmy-nominated documentary, “Black and Blue,” which came out in 2011.

And now, the story is a stage play.

Called “Victors of Character,” the Willis Ward/Gerald Ford play was commissioned by the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation, and took the stage Feb. 15-16 at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum in Grand Rapids. They performed four daytime shows for school groups and one evening show for adults.

It was fantastic.

The play is obviously geared toward a middle school/high school audience, and it does an excellent job of bringing the story home for that age group. To my reckoning, this is the first Michigan football story to become a stage play, and we couldn’t have picked a better story to be the first one.

Heck, it might be the first football story from ANY university to become a stage play. Once again, we’re the leaders and best.

Written by Grand Valley State University professor Dr. Allison Manville Metz, “Victors of Character” relies on a minimal cast - just four people - and no real set. It’s a huge story told in a small-stage way. Director Jason J. Flannery does a superb job of bringing it all together in an engaging and entertaining way. It’s not very long, maybe 40 minutes, but it delivers the story in a powerful and memorable way. The play makes you think. A lot.

The script stays very true to the “Black and Blue” story and has some very clever elements - such as having the Yost character double as a referee who continually calls unfair penalties on Ward.

The cast is filled with Grand Rapids-area stage veterans, and they were universally excellent.

Montreal Walker (Ward) and Jesse Aukeman (Ford) have an outstanding chemistry, and are particularly excellent in a scene in which Ford wonders why Ward isn’t more outraged at what’s happening to him. (It’s also the best-written scene in the play.)

Michael Empson does double duty as Coach Harry Kipke and Old Jerry Ford, and has a great scene with Yost toward the end of the play, as Kipke confronts the Old Man for his decision to bench Ward.

And Gordon Greenhill, as Yost, is a truly compelling and controlling villain. And the script holds nothing back in casting Yost as the villain. Whatever his contributions to college football and Michigan, Yost did a despicable thing in 1934, and the play - just like the documentary “Black and Blue” - demands that we confront that.

The documentary did such a great job of spotlighting the friendship between Ward and Ford, and how that friendship informed their decisions for the rest of their lives. The play does the same thing. This was an awful thing that happened at our school in 1934, but far from being a negative story about Michigan, this is a great story about Michigan. Two great Wolverines - one black, one white - supported in each other in a way that should make all of us proud. This story makes us proud we went to the same school as Willis Ward and Gerald Ford.

Kudos to the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation for bringing this story to the stage, and for keeping the story of Willis Ward and Gerald Ford alive in such a memorable way. I’m not sure what their plans are for the future with this play, but it needs to travel to every community in Michigan and beyond.

Gerald Ford was the president who made Black History Month an official designation back in 1976. That was no accident. The seeds were planted back in 1934, thanks to his friendship with Willis Ward. It’s fitting this story took the stage for the first time during Black History Month, and we need to keep it alive for generations to come.

You can watch the entire play on the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation’s Facebook page:

Analysis: Michigan started this game on fire. They created multiple OMRs right off the bat and put the puck in the net twice in the opening period. Hughes ripped a shot and Winborg deflected it behind Morris. Then Dancs found the puck off of a DZTO and beat Morris short side–Morris’s only soft goal of the four. Michigan was able to get deep in the House area all period and could have had a three or four goal lead after the first. Then, it slowwwwed wayyyyyy dowwwwn.

The penalty-fest in the second kept even strength play very similar. Calderone was able to poke home a garbage goal after James Sanchez drew a lot of attention in the slot. In the third, Michigan went full Sparty and registered a 4(1). But, as Sparty would, they scored on their only House chance, as Nick Pastujov picked up a pick in the neutral zone and found his brother across the crease to give M a 4-2 lead.

Tonight is a night that we remember to put Corsi in context. Michigan played very defensively–and rightly so-in the third. The Irish also turned up the pressure, as they needed a couple of goals. The numbers were low, but the offense was fine in context tonight. Plus, they finished chances! WOO!

I know Brian just did a Bracketology Update on Monday, so I decided to look at more of the specifics of what/when/who to watch this upcoming weekend.

Notre Dame Preview

PWR

Corsi

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 PPG

GAA

Save%

Michigan

15th

17th

16%

77%

7

2: Marody, Calderone

2.76 (Lavigne)

.905 (Lavigne)

Notre Dame

2nd

47th

20%

88%

6

3: Evans, Oglevie, Burke

1.75 (Morris)

.950 (Morris)

Things That Michigan Will (Probably) Need to Do to Get Points This Weekend:

1. Stay Out of the Box. This is where Michigan lost both games against the Fighting Irish last month. They didn’t take a ton of penalties (only five combined), but Michigan gave up three of their four total goals surrendered with ND on the man advantage. When the game was at even strength, the Wolverines played Notre Dame pretty even, and maybe even outplayed them a bit at Yost.

2. Don’t Get Caught. Michigan has done a better job lately of staying home defensively and covering for defensemen (Quinn Hughes) who skate the puck deep in the zone. Michigan is probably going to control the puck and get the majority of attempts. When that is the case, it is very important not to gift your opposition goals by getting too aggressive and giving up odd man rushes. Staying out of the box and defensively sound will give the Wolverines their best chance to grab points this weekend. Defensemen, pinch with care.

3. Finish. Just get the puck in the net. Over the last couple of weekends, Michigan has created some chances and given guys some opportunities, they just have not finished. This is the season's do-or-die series. It is time for Marody and Calderone–Michigan’s go-to scorers–to finish their chances.

Final Thoughts. I like how this series sets up for Michigan. As Brian stated earlier this week, they’re probably going to need a win this weekend to be in comfortable position in the Pairwise ranking. Michigan gets their Game 7 at home on Sunday, so Friday night kinda becomes found money. If they’re able to get something in South Bend, all of a sudden Sunday becomes a great opportunity. If not, they’ll have the friendly confines of Yost to fall back on for an all-or-nothing chance.

[After THE JUMP: dissecting the Big Ten standings and nationwide rooting interests according to Pairwise]