Making Babies Called Donald?

Δημοσιεύτηκε: Νοε 10 , 2016
Συγγραφέας: Stephen White

I predict a spike in
the birth-rate at the beginning of August 2017 because thousands of
people, in the US and around the world, were making babies last
night. There is much anecdotal evidence that after a trauma people
take solace with each other. How many couples will have gone to bed
last night whispering to each other ‘WTF (Will Trump Flourish?)’
before rolling over and occupying themselves with other things?

Shocks and worries in 2016 have come in so many different places
– Dilma Rousseff stepped down as Brazil’s president, Kim Jong-un
became increasingly aggressive as North Korea continued to escalate
their programme of nuclear tests, Brexit, the rise of nationalist
populism in Eastern Europe following the waves of refugees arriving
from Asia and Africa, and now the election of Donald Trump.

The newspapers call this a time of uncertainty. They are wrong.
This is a time of hyper-uncertainty. We haven’t seen the tip of the
iceberg yet. Still to come: elections in France and Germany, the
possible unravelling of the EU, perhaps a snap general election in
the UK if the Brexiteers begin to struggle, escalating tensions in
Egypt and Saudi Arabia, cyber insecurity an increasing threat, the
leaking of Donald Trump’s tax returns, and…and……and……!

What impact will hyper-uncertainty have on the day to day lives
of managers who run the factories and stores and service industries
which make the world go round? Market movements become more
difficult to read, exchange rates unpredictable, inflation more
likely, availability of labour more difficult or more expensive.
One thing is certain; all these volatilities create negotiating
opportunities, some welcome and some not; either way the result is
that negotiating competence is more and more vital.

Scotworkers don’t fret over theory; we are practical
negotiators. Rather than concentrating on why things over which we
have no control happen, we want to offer some useful advice on how
to handle the fallout. Over the coming months we will try to
give guidance at the strategic, tactical and personal skill levels.
To kick off, here is one of each.

Strategy: You and the parties you negotiate with may have many
conflictual issues. But hyper-uncertainty is an issue which you
share. So identify how uncertainty will affect the relationship
from the perspective of each party and create a narrative which
encourages a joint approach to the external problems. In the recent
UK Marmitegate episode, where Tesco and Unilever temporarily fell
out over price increase strategy, it was their shared horror at the
way the media portrayed the problem as ‘a plague on both your
houses’ which brought them to a speedy settlement – joint action
killed the mutually unacceptable onslaught.

Tactics: Hyper-uncertainty allows powerful parties to demand
renegotiation of contracts on better terms, because the uncertainty
has changed the status quo. Find ways to create power. If your
analysis of the power balance suggests that you are lagging behind,
work on ways to change the dynamic. Power is not an unalterable
given, you can change it. Israel’s El Al Airline has a long running
dispute with its pilots. The pilots think they hold the balance of
power, because they can ground the airline if they strike. So El Al
is now chartering planes and pilots from other airlines at random
times to demonstrate to the pilots that they do not have that
power.

Skill: Improve your persuasive skills. Contemporary thinking
that ‘Data is King’ and that you make persuasive arguments by using
that data effectively didn’t stop Donald Trump incessantly spouting
ridiculous half-truths and lies and still making them stick. Watch
him at his rallies, and see how he uses voice, body language and
repetition to change minds.