Many US analysts see Mahsud’s death as a dire blow to the Pakistani Taliban. But in my exprience Americans put too much emphasis on the CEO and not enough on the ordinary workers. Another leader of the Pakistani Taliban will emerge. Most insurgents in Afghanistan are from the Pashtun ethnic group,and Pashtuns for the most part are organized into small clans that are not very hierarchical (i.e. the tribesmen think they’re every bit as good as the chief and his uncle.) So they know how to operate by using small cells and avoiding a corporate organization chart. And revenge is a more common Pashtun attribute than admitting defeat.

The NATO / Kabul plan is to chase the Taliban out of Marjah, win local hearts and minds, and garrison it with Afghan army troops in the aftermath to ensure that the Taliban do not return. This plan requires that the operation not do so much damage to the city and kill so many locals that they are alienated in the long term. It also requires trustworthy Afghan troops who won’t just abuse their authority and who are good enough war fighters to fend off a Taliban return.

The question hanging over the Marjah campaign is whether it will allow a winning of hearts and minds. But if it is highly destructive of local homes and the lives of locals, no amount of US PR will prevent an outpouring of grief and resentment. And remember the Pashtun dedication to the vendetta and revenge.

4 Responses

Anonymous

MonsieurGonzo

The NATO / Kabul plan is to chase the Taliban out of Marjah, win local hearts and minds, and garrison it with Afghan army troops in the aftermath to ensure that the Taliban do not return. ROFL. A billion a week for this nonsense. "How's that hope-y change-y stuff workin' out for ya?"

Anonymous

.A part of the reason the US military has not won over the sympathies of locals in other areas of Afghanistan is because or soldiers and Marines don't speak the language of the locals. The locals are constantly reminded that the people exercising authority over them are foreigners.

So now the big plan is to take Marjah by force, and then leave behind "Afghan National Army" forces to stabilize and protect the locals. But these Afghan forces are largely Dari-speaking Tadjiks. They are no more welcome than Americans.

Come on. After 9 years, we must have someone in the US military who knows about this..

Anonymous

who needs oil in afganistan when all those poppies are there already?probably,(tho i have no stats to back up the assertion),the opium trade is very close to being as lucrative(??)as oil .even if all the oil is consumed,used-up,so to speak,we're back in the dark ages,all that sort of stuff,people are still want to "get high".consider

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