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Tuesday, February 12, 2013

GOLD SELLOFF

This is a chart of Silver and represents the counter punch to the gamed Gold trade I showed a couple of days ago. We went back into these markets at the point marked on the chart, 3160. The reason to have done Silver instead of Gold was that during that crazy intra-day action when the Gold trade was filled and stopped out then went back down. It was interesting that Silver which is generally not as liquid of a market as Gold, did not have the level of shenanigans. It does make we wonder just exactly what happened there with our orders. However, in spite of that when I saw the move back up was a fake and a trap, I went back into the trade and also put a trade in the service for Silver the next day if it bounced a little. It did so, I took that trade also.

We have got a little bit of a move then it reversed so we exited tonight and made more money back by a good amount than we lost in that screwy Gold trade.This is trading folks, real world, not a bullshit chart showing 7 consecutive trades the seller never made that all won. I went into a web site that won an award last year and sure enough the charts they have never show any losses. I can tell you from having checked out some of their techniques in a webinar that not only do they take losses, some of them plain do not work at all. When I asked them about it they admitted some of them don't work. Huh? However, they show charts with no losses in their web site. I personally think this should be illegal. I have losing trades all the time, so do they and more of them than I do by the looks of it.

This stuff is very frustrating to me. The last honest man has left town. The last two trades are trades I actually made in my accounts, one lost and the second won more than the first one lost. That is the real world of trading folks.

I came across something that I wanted to address, an article that "proves" Gold is manipulated down. I always read things like this just to see what the logic is, perhaps there is something I don't understand. As usual, I found nothing new. The article showed charts where it pointed out all the big intraday down legs as proof the price was manipulated down. This article ignored the big up legs on the same charts, apparently those don't mean it was manipulated upward? HUH? I can't tell you with any degree of certainty exactly what happens with Central banks and governments and their purchasing of things such as Gold. Certainly basic supply and demand would tell you that in doing so they limit supply which drives up prices. There is no acceptable explanation that would prove this causes prices to decline. Some of these guys ought to forget about their credentials and hit a ball out of the infield once. Now, if the Central Banks were to all of the sudden flood the market by selling this Gold, you could argue they were trying to force the price down. They do currency manipulations and announce when they are doing so, that is entirely different.

I just shake my head at this stuff, there is so much garbage on the Internet that is passed off as credible. Showing a chart that just has a large leg on it in either direction and saying that is proof of manipulation. This same argument holds true with the ES. As much as I and many others allege the Fed is basically driving the stock market higher, that does not mean every single rally is them intervening. Also, the S&P is a different market because there are basic ratios of volume and ticks and the Vix and several other things, which are known to be used by Funds to launch buy programs. We can look to see when a spike takes place and none of these normal buy program conditions are in place, for another source of the volume. No other market has the luxury of all those internal measures which give us these clues.

SO WHAT?

What if we do "know" that Gold is being manipulated? Would that effect how you would trade it? Would you never short Gold if you were sure it was being artificially held down thinking it should always want to rise? Would you only take shorts if you were sure it was being manipulated? How would you time your entries if you knew this? What is the manipulators decided to change their minds are they going to text you or email you a notice? I think you get the point, knowing this is worthless if you can't use it to your advantage, so who cares?

Look at the chart below, are we really to believe that all the days where the market moves down are manipulated, yet the sharper and more frequent up moves on the left side of the chart are not?

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About Me

My wife and I have been dog lovers for many years constantly moving up in the food chain. When we first met she had a Cairn terrier I named Louie after Louis Winthorp in the movie Trading Places. Since that time we have moved up into the world of Saint Bernards and we have found our calling in life. We live on a ranch with a large crew of Saint Bernards mostly from rescues with a few exceptions.

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