With all the chatter from JMU about jumping up to FBS.....has the CAA said one word about expanding or preparing for the possible exit of JMU?

One would think they'd go back into the pot for what they were trying to get when they lost some of the others. So, I'd suspect they'd go right back after Furman for all of its sports, since it was the program most in the conference wanted. But, can SoCon get gutted enough to dislodge them?

What I suspect they'll do: invite the rest of Fairfield's programs and invite Monmouth for football-only.

I know the CAA has been desperately trying to get Furman, but to me that is going to be even more futile than the CAA's pursuit of Davidson. Furman is a small private school located in the heart of the new SoCon that is now composed of 6 private/military schools, 2 Public UNC schools, and 2 Public UT schools. Furman has been a member of the SoCon since 1936 and never before has the conference landscape been set up as ideally for them as it is now. No way they leave that to become the southern most member of the CAA. UNC Greensboro is a much more realistic expansion target for the CAA and would fit in much better with Elon, UNC Wilmington and College of Charleston.

Part of what these realignment moves show is the competition or hierarchy between the conferences. Like, to the CAA, why are SoCon members that much more desirable than Big South, OVC, or A-Sun? Are they that threatening? For a conference that holds its basketball as high as it does, I honestly don't know what Furman would do. I might never understand Elon.

If picking up southern inventory matters, and basketball something to rebuild, I think the list is small: build the bridge between UNCW, Elon, and CoC with UNCG, Coastal, or Winthrop, or move west for someone like Belmont with a bridge like UNCA or Murray State.

It still ignores the basketball (and football) wealth in the north, but let the CAA figure out its Hofstra-induced issues.

Why go back to 14 when your biggest threat has no reason to go past 12 and will be stable for the long term? A 12 team Big East and a 12 team A10 (maybe they even change the name to A12) is what the most likely and logical outcome is and will likely be the finished product. That is the whole reason the A10 overloaded on schools, wisely so as it turned out. Right now we are almost at equilibrium with 14 A10 and 10 Big East. Once the Big East picks from the pool of St. Louis, Dayton, VCU, and Richmond (Duquesne could be in the running as well if they could ever produce a strong product), the remaining schools will stabilize at 12. The only logical reason the A10 will expand is if/when they lose UMASS. That will be an interesting replacement as there will be many interested candidates.

As for the CAA, their only real flight risks are JMU, W&M, and Northeastern as a longshot replacement for UMASS. JMU moving to the FBS is the biggest concern as that could be the straw that breaks W&M's commitment to the CAA and finally make the turns towards the Patriot League. Fortunately for the CAA JMU is not interested in the Sunbelt and CUSA is not interested in JMU. The CAA needs to act now, add Albany (Stony Brook would be preferable but they apparently they are not worth a Hofstra hissy fit) and UNCG (Furman's not coming). That gets them back to 12 which allows for divisions and reasonable travel. I would then pull an A10 and bulk up to 14 preparing for the day JMU and W&M leave. Plus 14 allows for even more reasonable travel which is something that needs to be taken into consideration at this level. Stony Brook and UNCA or Coastal Carolina would be preferable to me.

Doing this, you have solidified the conference in case other members pursue other opportunities, you have made travel extremely reasonable, you have maintained CAA football as one of the premiere eastern FCS conference, you have united the best non football southern schools left, and have laid the foundation for a solid northeastern all sports division long term.

Honestly I think the A-10 is projected to have a handful of tournament teams this year (Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Louis, George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, and maybe Richmond). I think Massachusetts would rather stay in the A-10 for basketball, but the question is whether the MAC would put up with it for long. They did with Temple, but I'm not sure they'll keep it up with Massachusetts. They might end up with the same situation in the American, CUSA, or the Sun Belt. I doubt the American because Massachusetts football is weak. CUSA wouldn't be bad a choice. Logistically, the Sun Belt would be terrible for Massachusetts.

Honestly I think the A-10 is projected to have a handful of tournament teams this year (Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Louis, George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, and maybe Richmond). I think Massachusetts would rather stay in the A-10 for basketball, but the question is whether the MAC would put up with it for long. They did with Temple, but I'm not sure they'll keep it up with Massachusetts. They might end up with the same situation in the American, CUSA, or the Sun Belt. I doubt the American because Massachusetts football is weak. CUSA wouldn't be bad a choice. Logistically, the Sun Belt would be terrible for Massachusetts.

There's a lovely USA Today article about "Could the A-10 get 7 bids?"

UMass is probably going to choose A-10 over "all-in" the MAC for a little while (especially when football gives them...

If the A-10 gets six bids (kinda likely), and the R64 goes to seed, that's 10 NCAA units for the conference. 1/3 of that split among the members, the other 2/3 by who makes it (and UMass in that situation would be sitting on two. That's 2.5 units per year (plus previous years still being paid out, including a larger share because Xavier & Temple walked away from units).

I think UMass is waiting to see what happens with:A - The Atlantic 10, and if the Big East goes big (taking 3-4 A-10 teams)B - The American, if UConn & Cincy find homes. I don't think the Big 12 would take Cincy and SMU, but if they did, the American is probably going to offer UMass an all-sport invite.

Honestly I think the A-10 is projected to have a handful of tournament teams this year (Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Louis, George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, and maybe Richmond). I think Massachusetts would rather stay in the A-10 for basketball, but the question is whether the MAC would put up with it for long. They did with Temple, but I'm not sure they'll keep it up with Massachusetts. They might end up with the same situation in the American, CUSA, or the Sun Belt. I doubt the American because Massachusetts football is weak. CUSA wouldn't be bad a choice. Logistically, the Sun Belt would be terrible for Massachusetts.

There's a lovely USA Today article about "Could the A-10 get 7 bids?"

UMass is probably going to choose A-10 over "all-in" the MAC for a little while (especially when football gives them...

If the A-10 gets six bids (kinda likely), and the R64 goes to seed, that's 10 NCAA units for the conference. 1/3 of that split among the members, the other 2/3 by who makes it (and UMass in that situation would be sitting on two. That's 2.5 units per year (plus previous years still being paid out, including a larger share because Xavier & Temple walked away from units).

I think UMass is waiting to see what happens with:A - The Atlantic 10, and if the Big East goes big (taking 3-4 A-10 teams)B - The American, if UConn & Cincy find homes. I don't think the Big 12 would take Cincy and SMU, but if they did, the American is probably going to offer UMass an all-sport invite.

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