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How will Essendon Bomber respond to their biggest loss since 2008? They face a Melbourne side that has a good recent record against the Bombers and will be confident of another big performance.

Melbourne will be sweating on the fitness of Angus Brayshaw (concussion) with Heritier Lumumba, Aaron vandenBerg, Mark Jamar and Jack Grimes all likely to come into contention for selection. They are missing at least three players from their best 22. James Hird may make multiple changes to his Essendon side with Patrick Ambrose, Heath Hocking, Alex Browne, Kyle Langford and more all pushing their case in the VFL. They are likely to be without Bellchambers, Carlisle, Coyler, Myers and captain Jobe Watson from their best 22.

The Dees and Bombers have the same record with four wins and nine losses though Essendon has a marginally better percentage. Essendon has lost their last four games by an average of 66-points. They rank 17th for scoring but 12th for least points against this season. They are 3-3 (2-4 against the line) vs bottom ten teams in 2015. Melbourne is 15th in both scoring and defence this season and are 2-3 (3-2 against the line) against non-finals placed sides at this stage.

Essendon and Melbourne have met 210 times with the Bombers leading 127-81 with two draws. Since 2010, Melbourne is 4-1 both head-to-head and against the line vs Essendon. The Demons are 6-13 (8-11 against the line) at the MCG under Paul Roos. Essendon is 12-14-1 (13-14 against the line) at the MCG since the start of 2012. Under Roos, Melbourne is 0-7 (0-7 against the line) following a loss of over 50-points. The Dees are 0-5 both head to head and ATL following a trip to Darwin since the start of 2010 – their opponents in those Darwin matches are 1-4 (2-3 against the line) in their next games. Melbourne is 4-5 (3-6 against the line) in games that they have started as favourite since the start of 2012 – 0-3 both head to head and ATL in 2014. Five of their last eight games have totalled over 185-points though three of the last four have totalled under 170-points. Bernie Vince averages 34 possessions in his last four games.

Essendon was utterly deplorable against St Kilda and should Melbourne hand them a similar fate here then it could be the end for James Hird. The Wolf is backing the Bombers’ free-fall to continue. Melbourne’s losing margin is a bit mis-leading against West Coast though as they were in it until mid-way through the last quarter. They showd with their win against Geelong that when they get first use in the middle then Jones, Viney, Vince and co can spark them into action. Essendon is averaging a paltry 57-points in their past five weeks with their work forward of centre absolutely atrocious. Melbourne will push back in numbers, look to own the corridor and get it in quick to Hogan, Dawes and Garlett to pick up the win.