You Got Served: Stray football thoughts

Ted BartlettOct 18, 2011 2:00 PM

Happy Tuesday, friends. Since there was no Broncos game this weekend to comment on, I decided to just share some stray football thoughts for a while. Since I actually had to closely watch the Miami game live last night, my normal Monday night writing time was short, so we’ll see what comes out. Ready….. BEGIN!!

1. I suppose I should begin with the “fire sale” concept, and whether the Broncos are having one. I supported the trade of Brandon Lloyd, because clearly the team had decided that they weren’t going to pay him long dollars in the offseason. Teams have to make organizational decisions, and frankly, we’ve seen a few work out pretty well lately. I don’t miss Brandon Marshall, for example. Did anybody see him playing like he just didn’t care Monday night? That guy is a losing football player, and I don't miss him.

I rarely comment in the other guys’ threads, but I added one to yesterday’s Lard, because I thought some points about compensatory draft picks were getting missed.

A couple of thoughts about draft picks…

Compensatory picks for free agents lost after this year won’t come until 2013, and that’s a key thing to keep in mind. If I can get a 4 in 2012, that’s a lot better than a 5 in 2013, which is generally considered to be worth a 6 in 2012. (The NFL rule of thumb is that you have to discount picks one round per year into the future.)

Also, compensatory picks aren’t as valuable as normal picks, because they can’t be traded. Acquiring the pick of another team has the added value of flexibility.

Finally, there’s no guarantee that a pick for Lloyd would be a #5, because the NFL doesn’t share their methodology on awarding compensatory picks. PK’s guess is definitely of rectal origin. The Broncos may lose Lloyd, and then sign somebody else who the NFL deems to be of greater or equal value, and there could be no compensatory pick awarded. You never know.

I like Lloyd a good deal as a player, and Royal has tried hard and been a good citizen. Since I have rebuilding fever, though, I’m cool with trading both in the next couple days, if we get some 2012 picks for them. Kyle Orton and DJ Williams can join them too.

I decided to reprint that here, even though it's kind of like reweeting yourself in case anybody missed it yesterday, because it’s a bit non-obvious. You can take the approach of the Chargers - which is to purposefully let most of your own guys walk after their rookie contracts while signing very few UFAs from other teams, and then take whatever you get every year in terms of compensatory picks. If you get a five and a seven, that’s cool; it helps restock the roster, right? Counting on a specific return for a specific lost player is foolish, though. It’s not like Major League Baseball where it happens automatically or immediately.

The Carolina Panthers had to watch Julius Peppers walk away in 2010 for big money from the Chicago Bears, and they were probably pretty sure they’d get a late third-rounder for him a year later. They got the 97th pick in the 2011 Draft and took Sione Fua. Peppers was on a super-expensive franchise tag that year, but it would have at least been worth exploring if the Panthers could have gotten a 2010 second-rounder for him at the 2009 trade deadline. They had to know that they weren’t a Super Bowl team, right?

I like Brandon Lloyd as a player, and I think his unique qualities as a person are not problematic, even though it seems like most coaches dislike them. I also see a guy who is 30, and who relies highly upon extraordinary athleticism that should be starting to decline any day now. I probably would have offered the guy three years and $25 million, with about $12 million guaranteed, but I can see why the Broncos decided not to, and since that decision was made, I believe that they did the right thing in maximizing their return for him now.

As for Eddie Royal, he’s been a pretty good Bronco, and I’d be sad to see him go too. If I could get another fifth-rounder for him, I’d do that deal, though. Otherwise, I think I’d hang onto him, and after the season offer him something on the order of four years, $10 million, AKA Jabar Gaffney money. As a WR, I think that’s what Royal has settled out to be: a solid pro, as disappointing as that is. If he leaves, he leaves, but I don’t think his market is going to be as hot as Lloyd’s would have been, and I think that the Broncos would have a solid shot of keeping him for reasonable money.

On the topic of Kyle Orton, I wish there was more of a market for him, and with D.J. Williams, I’m still hopeful that somebody wants to call for him today. He has an expensive contract in terms of salary, and that hurts his chances of being moved.

Honestly, today, I’m listening on almost everybody, not that it’s particularly likely that we’ll see another meaningful trade. It’s all in the game, and it's not a fire sale. The Broncos are in the early stages of a rebuilding process, and they know that a lot depends on how much Tim Tebow shows as to where they go next. Getting something for guys who are going out the door anyway is a worthwhile exercise, because you're giving yourself a chance to have the players who you get from those picks develop right as the team gets good.

2. The Raiders' trade for Carson Palmer is just reckless on a couple of levels. Benglas owner Mike Brown has to be laughing his butt off this morning in his wood-paneled office. He got a real starting QB in the top of the second round of this year’s Draft, and he managed to sell off Palmer for about $2.25 on the dollar. Brown is supposed to be bad at this whole GMing thing too.

Palmer is going to be 32 in December, and the Raiders are paying $7.4 million (pro-rated from $11.5 million) for 11 games of his age 31 season, and then what? They’re definitely locked into him for next year, because you paid so much for him, and he has a franchise player contract which calls for him to be paid $11.5 million in 2012, $13 million in 2013, and $14 million in 2014.

Unless Palmer has some magical and unexpected resurgence, I think it’s safe to expect him to be (at best) what he’s been the last couple of years, which is a league-average QB. I have to wonder how the rest of the Raiders’ players take this move. To me, it smacks of the Colts’ panic-signing of Kerry Collins, and there’s a strong chance that this is received as poorly as that was.

Jason Campbell has played pretty well this season, and he’s been talking about trying to come back and play in 4-6 weeks, as unlikely as that probably is. I’m sure a lot of Raiders players appreciate the solid play and toughness that Campbell has shown, and this transaction screams that he’ll be forgotten about after this season as if he was never there. Enjoy free agency, Jason.

This is the kind of move that may help the Raiders marginally in the short-term, but it’s a long-term disaster. I’m a guy who often likes players better than Draft picks, but if I’m potentially giving up two first -rounders, the player coming back had better be young, elite, and have a reasonable contract. (Like Jay Cutler, who once looked like he’d become elite, and subsequently didn’t.) Palmer is none of those things, and this just doesn’t make sense to me.

3. I’ve been thinking about Demaryius Thomas, and I really think that if he can maintain some good health, he can be exactly what Tim Tebow needs outside. Thomas is big and has a wide catch-radius. As much as Tebow’s inaccuracy is overblown, he’s definitely not a precise location thrower.

Thomas can be a physical matchup nightmare like Andre Johnson, because players as big and strong as he is are rarely as fast. Staying healthy is a skill, and while I don’t think we can blame Thomas for the injuries he’s had, I’d like to start seeing him avoid them a little better going forward. He has a good chance to step right in and start being a key player, and in so doing, can change the narrative about himself that he’s injury-prone.

4. One thing that the Broncos lack on their offense is a space player that scares anybody. I’ve been calling for one for years, to no avail, but I’m persistent. I have three guys in mind who play college football, and I think that they’ll all ultimately be second- or third-round picks. Two of them were teammates of Tim Tebow at Florida.

a. Jeff Demps - Senior, Florida - 5-7, 191

Demps is the fastest player in college football. He won the 60-meter indoor and 100-meter outdoor national championships in 2010, and he’s run a (wind-aided) 9.96-second 100 meter, and is tied for the national high school record with a 10.01 that was not aided by the wind. Demps is a legitimate football player and not just a track guy, as he’s averaged 7 yards per carry in his career. He’s like a smaller Darren McFadden, where if he gets the edge, you’re in deep trouble.

b. Chris Rainey - Senior, Florida - 5-9, 174

Rainey isn’t as fast as Demps, but he’s a more natural runner of the football, and he’s plenty fast enough. Rainey is also the best natural receiver of these three, and he spent his junior year playing primarily out wide and in the slot. Rainey will remind you of a shorter, skinnier Jahvid Best.

c. LaMichael James - Junior, Oregon - 5-9, 195

James is closer to an every-down NFL back than the other two, but he’s still going to be part of a tandem at the next level. He’s another guy who can make defenders miss in open space, and I think he’s got a good chance to resemble a taller version of Darren Sproles as a pro.

All three of these players would be great additions to any NFL team, but the Broncos especially need a home run threat on offense to start backing defenses off the line some, and to slow down pass rushes. Do you want to jailbreak blitz when a guy like Jeff Demps is one missed tackle away from being gone? Not really. The Saints have been making good use of this concept for years now, first with Reggie Bush and now Sproles, and I’d like to see the Broncos copycat them on it.

5. Speaking of the Saints, I heard an interesting discussion of them in passing somewhere recently, and I wanted to share some thoughts about them. The discussion centered around the fact that the Saints seek specialization and not so much versatility in player acquisition. If you look at their RB group, you’ll see what I mean. Mark Ingram is the between-the-tackles guy, Sproles is the space guy, and Pierre Thomas can do some of both.

At WR, it’s even more clear. Lance Moore is a quick guy, who’s good at running option routes. Marques Colston is a big, physical inside player who can catch in traffic. Devery Henderson is a speedster who takes the top off a defense. Robert Meachem is a good combination of the three and can really do anything that is asked of him within the offense.

By hiring specialized skills, the Saints are able to be more sure about who they’re acquiring than a team who is projecting versatility and future skill development can. The Saints wanted a between-the-tackles runner, and they drafted Ingram, who they were pretty certain was going to be effective at that role. They don’t really care that much if he gets more dangerous in space or more accomplished as a receiver, because they have those skills in place. It’d be cool if Ingram gets more versatile, but he doesn’t need to, in other words.

When I buy clothes and shoes, I specialize, so I guess what the Saints are doing works for my brain. You know what specific functions you need to be able to do, and you buy what you need to cover all those bases. When you lose the ability to cover a base, you replace that same ability.

By doing this, a football team can mess with its opponents by varying its personnel tendencies. If I put Henderson, Meachem and Colston trips left with TE Jimmy Graham alone on the right side, I’m probably going to see the safeties shade the offense’s left side pretty strongly, and that should leave Graham free to work against a LB. This is just one example, but there’s lots of fun you can have with personnel groupings, and it’s even more pronounced when the opposing team knows that a lot of your personnel has really specialized skills.

We’ve seen that buying versatility can work, via the Patriots, but I really think I like buying specialization better. It’s a sub-package league, and I just think that specialization maximizes a team’s bench strength in their various packages.

6. Also relating to yesterday's Lard, I have to give props to Dolphins owner Steve Ross, a guy I usually like to beat up on. It may be because the University of Michigan's business school is named after him, and because it continues to aggressively recruit me, even though I was always going to go to Cleveland State University for my MBA and I'm almost done, but I don't like Ross. He overpaid for his team by about $300 million and then has tried a bunch of silly gimmicks to make money on it, including Gator Day and being an extreme hardliner in the lockout. Why would I go to that B-school?

Anyway, the props come from the fact that he nixed the Kyle Orton trade. I wish he hadn't, but by not accepting a non-answer as the long-term answer, Ross did a good thing for his team and his fan base, even if they're going to play the part of the pinata all season in 2011. Truth is, they wouldn't have been much better with Orton, because it's a poorly constructed team with a mix of underachievers, malcontents, delusional "stars", and over-the-hill guys. They probably would have won five games, though, rather than the one or two that I'm now expecting them to get.

That’s all the time I have for today, friends. Check back with me Friday, and we’ll Digest us some Dolphins. YUM!

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

Actually IIRC we won a game in Mia a few years ago or maybe it was JAX but thought is was MIa to break that spell of never wining in FL in an early game.

Maybe they need to put a rain/heating system in their dome to pump up the humidity and heat to acclimatize them before these games. That is what seems to sap them is the heat and not being able to sweat. IMO

Personally not sure that I like the NOL plan vs NE style of building a TEAM. I like the overall ability of getting almost any type of playoff of a guy rather than hoping the D play was not called to stop your &#8220special&#8221 play by a special player.

With the NE style they can damned near go any direction with the exsisiting players on the field.

Either way it will take a few more really great drafts and some player development from a coaching staff that has been in place more then like it seemed 10 games at a time like we saw with mikes D side of the LOS.

You can&#8217t expect players to be comfortable and being great changing schemes every other year if not twice a year like we have seen in the past.

Count me as a NE style vote.

Posted by lonestar on 2011-10-19 18:51:44

Bronncohowie:

It&#8217s practically a home game for Tebow, what with the &#8220Salute to the Florida Gators&#8221 event. I like our chances!

Posted by DiscoStu on 2011-10-19 01:55:16

Broncos 0-7 all time in Miami - hope they break the spell Sunday.

Posted by bronncohowie on 2011-10-18 23:19:06

Sealver Siliga:

His first name is pronounced &#8216silver&#8217, last name see-linga. He played with Paul Kruger and NT Sione Pouha at Utah and was the 2007 State Power Lifting Champion as a senior in HS. He needs to develop more functional strength - using his strength while remaining in balance - and is a bit slow, with a 5:35 40 (the first 10 yards are all the usually matter for DL players). He moves fairly well laterally, but he isn&#8217t a great single gap penetrator - his game is more along the LOS, stopping ball carriers, which could be something that Denver needs. He&#8217s got a nasty slap that rocks OL players, and with some development he might turn into a rotational NT.

He was honorable mention MWC for the past two seasons before coming out for the NFL Draft.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-10-18 22:38:26

Isn&#8217t Knowshon Moreno already growing into a role as a space player? I realize that he has to stay on the field to fulfill that role, but we&#8217ve seen plenty of good things when Moreno gets in space during his time here in Denver. He does not have blazing speed, but his open field moves are impressive. Moreno&#8217s touchdown against the Chargers in Week 5 this season serves as the most direct case on point about what he can do in space.

Posted by RSH on 2011-10-18 21:08:25

Sealver Siliga was signed to practice squad.

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-10-18 20:53:44

Thanks Ted, I agree with your assessment of Lloyd. I noticed that it seems that Lloyd is catching more balls out of bounds this year. Defenders playing him better? Anyway Denver didn&#8217t pay anything to get him and the get a little in return. I&#8217d like to see them package the pick and move up, generally a 5th rounder is a special teamer for 3 years. I&#8217m curious about Bush. From what I hear, he runs a 4.47 and plays bigger than his frame. I wonder if he&#8217ll back up Moore and they will move Bruton over to compete for time with Carter. Denver also signed a DT from Utah named, Sealver Siliga. Any Ideas on pronunciation?

Posted by sleepyteak on 2011-10-18 20:53:04

Legwold says that we had 4 (or 6) picks in 2012&#8230now we have 5 (or 7).

Posted by RalphW on 2011-10-18 20:18:27

Thanks for the serving, Ted.

I like your points about compensatory picks and agree that a known quantity is better than an unknown one. I also think a key factor was that Denver only had 5 draft picks in 2012 before this trade. A rebuilding team needs more than that. Hopefully Denver will be able to pick up a few more along the way to April.

Posted by Justin on 2011-10-18 20:09:16

I think the Saint&#8217s player specialization approach should make success with latter round draft picks easier. Instead of looking for all-around &#8220starter-quality&#8221 players they can take the guy who does X well. If that&#8217s all he can do, fine. If he can do more that&#8217s a bonus.

Picking up a specialized space player would allow Denver to use Tebow in a 212 Shotgun (split-backs, space player weak side) to put a lot of pressure on a defense. The space player on a swing/screen or motioning out as a 3rd receiver would be hard for most LBs to cover. Off the passes, use the space player to run his man wide (swing look or motion him out) then QB/HB draw weak-side where the defender vacated. And a zone read like you drew up the other week would be an obvious threat as well.

Posted by Gman on 2011-10-18 19:42:52

I think it&#8217s unlikely Jason Campbell would return from his injury this year even with surgery. QB&#8217s and all football players fall on their shoulders way too frequently to think that a surgically repaired clavicle could hold up to a repeat trauma. Plus his mechanics are going to be different for at least 6-8 months since the clavicle is essential to stabilizing the shoulder joint in the forward motion part of throwing the football.

I tend to agree with you about Palmer and how foolish it is for the long term prospects of the team, but I suspect he&#8217ll be a reasonable short term answer just because their attack is predicated more on running and play action than him having to win the game through the air. Certainly, he&#8217s not an elite QB in this league (although he thinks he is.)

Posted by Ponderosa on 2011-10-18 19:21:48

clarification - &#8220I saw him picked by Denver&#8230&#8221

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-10-18 19:03:56

Ted, what are your thoughts about spending the rd 1 pick on Trent Richardson? He would seem to fit your home-run style runner tho in a RB body (Darren McFadden-esque). I saw him picked in one of the tens of mock drafts already out there. He seems to have the whole package, but I&#8217m not a fan of using a RB in the 1st rd.

Although BPA is a great strategy (and Richardson might be that guy on the board for us), I feel we will need a MLB, DT or CB more than RB in rd #1 - assumption is Tebow works out for us.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-10-18 19:02:52

If Fox wants to create the most &#8220sophisticated running game&#8221 in the league then a guy like Demps would really give him another weapon to contribute to that.

Wasn&#8217t the last time Palmer was anywhere near a football field when he was drinking beer at a USC tailgate party?

Posted by SteveUk on 2011-10-18 19:01:26

Say what you will about this season, which still has a ways to go (and enjoy), but it will be interesting to see what we have in a few players: DT, Tebow, and Moreno. Add in a talented bunch of rookies and you have a roster with some potential but one that must be evaluated over the course of a season. Since no one has playoff expectations here, the evaluation process should be constructive.

Looking forward to the &#8216fins. I can&#8217t imagine that on a sort week and not much film to aid in prep for the Broncos they will be well game planned.

Posted by RalphW on 2011-10-18 18:58:21

Ted&#8212I think Bill Barnwell had a link to the bit on Sean Payton and the Saints&#8217 model. My take is that it&#8217s the opposite of the &#8216smart, tough & versatile&#8217 approach, and good because it imposes a much lower burden on talent acquisition. The Patriots&#8217 approach to parity is to get perfectly intelligent players who can take on multiple gameplans. The Saints&#8217 is to develop specialized parts, and to adapt the gameplan by swapping some parts for others. I think it&#8217s pretty obvious which approach is more fault-tolerant, and which one imposes lower requirements on player-acquisition acumen. Unfortunately, both require exacting offensive minds, which, er, um&#8230..