Looking For A Match In A Sonny Gray Trade

For the third consecutive July, Sonny Gray’s name figures to permeate headlines at MLBTR and throughout the industry, as the Athletics are well out of the race for the American League West and for an American League Wild Card spot.

Interest in Gray figures to be heightened in 2017 given that he’s looked more impressive on the mound than he did in an injury-shortened 2016 season. While it has to be noted that Gray did miss the month of April due to a strained lat muscle, the 27-year-old has returned to throw 64 2/3 innings of 4.45 ERA ball. Obviously, that’s not an especially appealing number, but most front offices in today’s game aren’t overly swayed by ERA, and the underlying stats with Gray are considerably more intriguing.

Gray has averaged 9.1 strikeouts (his highest since his rookie season) and 3.1 walks per nine innings pitched while inducing grounders at a 54.9 percent clip thus far in the season. His 93.4 mph average fastball velocity is still strong, and he’s inducing more chasing outside the strike zone (31.4 percent) than he ever has in his career. Perhaps unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate (12 percent) and opponents’ contact rate (74.2 percent) have both improved accordingly. Each of those marks is also a career-best for Gray.

Moreover, while Gray gets some benefit from playing in the spacious O.Co Coliseum, whatever help he receives is largely mitigated by the fact that the Athletics are the worst defensive team in baseball. Oakland’s -47 mark in Defensive Runs Saved is eight runs worse than the closest team (the Giants) and 19 runs worse than the 28th-ranked Blue Jays. Ultimate Zone Rating tells a similar story, grading the A’s at an MLB-worst -31.7. All of that has played prominently in his elevated ERA, as Gray’s .320 BABIP is the highest mark of his career to date.

Last year’s health troubles obviously have to be a concern to interested teams, but there’s a small silver lining: Gray’s price in arbitration was dramatically impacted both by his lack of innings in 2016 and his substandard results. He’s earning at an eminently affordable $3.575MM rate in 2017 and is controllable for two more years, through his age-29 season, before hitting free agency.

All of this is to say, of course, that the asking price for Gray will be steep. In spite of recent injury troubles, the paucity of controllable starters that will be available on the market and the vast number of teams looking to swing a deal for a player that can help their rotation beyond 2017 figure to result in a huge return for the A’s if they ultimately decide to move their ace.

Any team that’s seriously considering a run at Gray will have to have a fairly strong farm system and/or some young, MLB-ready talent with less than a year of club control on the table in talks. The A’s almost certainly aren’t going to move Gray for anyone that’s within arm’s reach of arbitration eligibility. The endgame here is to pick up multiple long-term assets that won’t have any real earning power for several more years.

Oakland, after all, has a wave of young prospects hitting the Majors right now and undoubtedly hopes that those assets can quickly help to form the core of a contender. Ryon Healy arrived on the scene last year, while this season has brought forth names like Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Jaycob Brugman and Bruce Maxwell, among others. It doesn’t seem likely that the A’s would be open to moving Gray for a package of high-ceiling 19-year-olds that are three years away from the Majors.

All of that probably puts fringe contenders like the Orioles, Angels, Mariners and Royals at a disadvantage. It’s feasible that Seattle could make a run in the wake of Drew Smyly’s Tommy John surgery, but their system is pretty light on top-end talent, the A’s are a division rival, and their lone shot in 2017 is to get into the playoffs via Wild Card. That Gray is controlled through 2019 no doubt appeals to them, but I have to imagine that other clubs could put together more enticing offers.

It’s likely fair to also cross off any of the Giants, Padres, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Tigers, Marlins and White Sox. Each is well under .500, and many of those clubs are in the midst of a rebuild. Looking to some clear contenders that are in win-now mode, however, there are lots of readily apparent suitors for Gray…

Astros: Houston has been the most oft-linked team to Gray, as many pundits expect that they’ll add a front-line arm to join Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers in the playoff rotation. The Astros have plenty of high-end pitching prospects that aren’t yet proven in the big leagues (e.g. Francis Martes, David Paulino) as well as upper-level position prospects that don’t necessarily have a clear path to regular at-bats in the Majors (e.g. Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez). Houston also spent very aggressively on this past year’s international market, so they’ll have some potential impact talent rising through the ranks to replenish the system if they trade from their upper levels.

Cubs: Virtually the entire Chicago rotation has taken a step back in 2017, and whether it’s due to a potential “hangover” effect of last year’s lengthy postseason run or simply the year-to-year volatility that comes with pitchers, they’re in need of help. The Cubs entered the year with a questionable fifth slot in the rotation to begin with, and they’ve now lost Kyle Hendricks to the DL while Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester are all offering reduced production, to varying extents. Chicago is rife with young position players that could appeal to the A’s, though they’re reportedly not especially amenable to trading any of their young big league bats.

Yankees: The Yankees will be without CC Sabathia for awhile, and Masahiro Tanaka has struggled for much of the season. Michael Pineda’s home run problems are more pronounced than ever, though he’s still managed to turn in solid overall results. However, the Yankees could lose Pineda, Sabathia and Tanaka at season’s end, leaving them with significant holes to fill in the rotation. Jordan Montgomery may very well be emerging as a long-term option, but he also threw just 139 innings last year, so at some point they’ll want to monitor his workload. Like the Cubs, the Yankees’ farm is stuffed with intriguing prospects. And for New York, there’s an additional (albeit entirely speculative) scenario to consider: with first base being a clear point of weakness, could they line up a package deal to land both Gray and Yonder Alonsoin the same trade?

Dodgers:Rich Hill hasn’t looked like the 2015-16 version of himself this year, and Julio Urias will miss this season and possibly much of next year due to an ominous shoulder surgery. Gray would slot directly into a playoff rotation alongside Clayton Kershaw and breakout star Alex Wood, and the Dodgers aren’t lacking for appealing trade chips. Cody Bellinger is assuredly off limits, but prospects like Alex Verdugo, Willie Calhoun and others would likely pique Oakland’s interest.

Rockies: Colorado has leaned heavily on young pitching this season, but those inexperienced arms have begun to labor in recent weeks. Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland come with some rather dubious peripherals, and lefty Tyler Anderson is now out for a month or so due to arthroscopic knee surgery. Jon Gray is returning from the DL, and Jeff Hoffman looks terrific, but there’s virtually no experience in the rotation beyond Tyler Chatwood and, to a lesser extent, the other Gray (Jon). Perhaps some of the young but raw arms that Colorado has leaned upon this year (e.g. German Marquez) could entice the A’s, and Colorado has prospects like outfielder Raimel Tapia and infielder Ryan McMahon that are somewhat blocked at the big league level. Per Nick Groke of the Denver Post, however, Brendan Rodgers is almost entirely off limits.

Diamondbacks: The rotation isn’t a clear area of need for the D-backs. In fact, it’s been one of the team’s strengths. They also have a weak farm system and may prefer to simply stick with the arms that have gotten them this far, so perhaps this is too much of a long shot for serious consideration. But, there also aren’t many holes on the Diamondbacks’ roster, and they’d currently turn to one of Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin or Taijuan Walker as the third starter behind Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray in a playoff rotation. Arizona might not have expected to be in this position, but they’re firmly in the hunt for the division and look, at worst, to be a Wild Card favorite. The core that’s propelled them will be around through at least 2018 — and most of it through at least 2019 — meaning Gray aligns well with the rest of their roster.

Indians: Like the Cubs, the Indians have seen a number of their pitchers take a step back in 2017. They, too, entered the year with a questionable setup at the very back of the rotation, and Danny Salazar’s sharp decline, paired with the struggles of Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, creates a need for rotation help as Cleveland finds itself in a surprising race with the Twins and Royals for top billing in the AL Central. Last year’s deal for Andrew Miller thinned out the farm, but they’re hardly hurting for top-end prospects. Bradley Zimmer’s impressive play in the Majors probably removes him as a consideration in trades, but Cleveland has some potentially blocked assets in Tyler Naquin and Yandy Diaz as well as a number of upper-level prospects that have yet to break into the bigs.

Red Sox: Third base will probably be Boston’s primary area of focus, but they’ve already been linked to Gray on the rumor circuit. The Boston rotation is already stacked with high-profile names, but David Price’s elbow issues and early struggles make him something of a question mark, and Rick Porcello hasn’t replicated his 2016 Cy Young form yet. Eduardo Rodriguez, meanwhile, is dealing with knee issues, while Steven Wright is out for the season and Doug Fister is a wild card. Chris Sale will join Price and Porcello in a potential playoff rotation for the Sox, though, so the notion of adding Gray to the mix might be a stretch, especially with the aforementioned greater need at the hot corner.

Each of those clubs looks to be firmly in “win-now” mode, but there are also a few teams that are walking the line between winning in the present while also building for the future. They may be a bit more of a stretch, but each has reason to at least explore the possibility of pursuing Gray.

Twins/Brewers: These two teams are in a fairly similar position. Both entered the year with a long-term outlook in mind, but both now surprisingly find themselves contending sooner than expected. Mortgaging the future wouldn’t be prudent if it meant acquiring a rental piece, but adding an affordable arm that can be controlled through 2019, when each team’s core has gained more experience, could hold appeal. Milwaukee has the better farm system of the two and has more outfielders than it knows what to do with, but the Twins still have some Top 100 prospects as well as some younger pieces that have yet to solidify themselves in the Majors. It’s worth noting, too, that Minnesota GM Thad Levine has already expressed an openness to acquiring long-term assets.

Braves: David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently linked the Braves to Gray, and while he’s reportedly not atop their wish list, his controllable nature should hold appeal to GM John Coppolella, who has never been shy about brokering trades. Depending on your prospect list of choice, the Braves have roughly 10 percent of the game’s Top 100 prospects in their ranks, so if they do decide that Gray is worth the considerable price, they’ll have plenty of pieces to entice Oakland president Billy Beane and GM David Forst.

Comments

Not that I’m really a fan of Wacha, but he and gray have basically the same stats right now, I wouldn’t expend the prospects for equal value. I’d rather see them go after a bullpen arm, or promote Weaver, then move Wacha. I don’t see them moving Wainwright really.

I agree that they should not trade the whole farm. But if they can get him for nick gordon and use some of there mlb or mlb ready guys like (granite or rosario) and mejia and a top 10 prospect guy ( wade, blankenhorn, diaz, wells). Your giving up guy they can start in outfield right away a mlb starting pitcher, a top top prospect and a young high upside guy. Sonny Gray is not a ace or even a number 2 pitcher right now but if your not getting darvish this winter there are not a whole lot of better starting pitcher free agents better then him

I just get the sense that Astros FO has deemed so many of their prospects as “untouchable” that it might prevent discussions from getting done. The main point missing is what the As are looking for in return as far as pitching, infield, or outfield heavy. One would assume they would want at least one of the organizations top 3 pitching prospects plus others

1st thing needs to be a nearly ready to go outfielder, preferably a CF, especially of they thing Olsen can play the corner so they can get make Khris Davis a DH. A future INF of Chapman, Semien, Barreto and Healy can be pretty nice.

1st let me say I’d be a little nervous giving up so many prospects for Gray given the Mariners past success with big trades for pitchers- Erik Bedard ring a bell? 2nd, as the article points out our farm system has been depleted. However, the OF is now a position of strength for Seattle with Tyler O’niell in AAA and Guillermo Heredia possible trade targets. Throw in our young 100mph flame-throwing Brazilian kid (who just made the Futures squad,) Thyiago Viera and a young SP and that’s a pretty attractive package

Matt Chapman has one of the highest bust rates in the minors… lets not act like a backup plan is an awful thing.
And why are you acting like Preston Tucker has any kind of value? Unless you mean Kyle Tucker? Tucker + Martes is way too much for Gray

Ok Brixton, we get it you don’t value Gray. But you’re wrong, he’s back to ace form again, as evidenced by his last few starts. You don’t really understand trade deadline value if you think these deals have to be fair for the team getting the star player, or if FO’s value prospects as much as you do.

Sonny Gray for Jake Marisnick. Sonny’s last few starts indicate he’s an Ace, just like Marisnick’s 59 games this year shows he’s a 130 WRC+ hitter who plays plus-plus CF defense and is one of the best baserunners in baseball. Might need to get a throw in from Oakland though. As evidenced by his last few starts where he’s got an ERA over 8, AJ Puk is a bust, so the Astros can do the Athletics a favor and maybe provide him a change of scenery.

A’s should just keep Gray if you think he is not worth a prospect. AJ Puk has a ERA under 4.00 and a strike a whip of 1.13. Gray has a ERA close to 4.00 not 4.50. Without Tucker in a deal there is no way they will obtain Gray because most of their top young player are already in the majors. You do not obtain good players without giving up good prospects.

Boston might have an edge in that Beane loves to ship his fave guys to contenders and David Price is Sonny’s best friend. I’d think Bradley Jr. and Groome for Gray and Madson might work out. Certainly would make Boston’s title-chances in 2017 a lot better and Oakland gets an everyday CF and a future Gray replacement.

The Red Sox are a playoff caliber team as is no way they trade Bradley and that is why they probably won’t get Gray. The reality is you never know what Billy Beane wants I am just convinced the Red Sox aren’t trading there starting Centerfielder it would weaken there current team.

This article was remiss in not mentioning that the Cubs also have two potential free agents among in their 2017 starting rotation, Jake Arrieta and John Lackey. As a result, it would behoove the front office to acquire a controllable quality starter by the non-waiver trade deadline, be it Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana, Gerrit Cole or (perhaps) even their own former top prospect, Chris Archer of the Rays.

I completely agree that the Cubs should be looking into one of these arms, if not for this year, then for the next few. However, I just dont see tampa trading archer without getting back someone who they can plug in and play and help them win right now, and I am not sure the cubs would be willing to do that.

I concur. It’s highly questionable that Archer, who has more control than the others mentioned, would even be available this summer with the Rays currently contending in the A.L., which prompted the inclusion of “perhaps” in my comment.

I’d be fine with the Indians going after him (I’ve never been completely sold on Bauer and especially Tomlin, but Salazar has been a major disappointment), but I’d be really surprised if it ended up happening. I’d be fine with seeing Naquin and Diaz being traded, but there’s no way that Oakland would make a deal without Francisco Mejia and/or Triston McKenzie, and maybe even more than that.

Sorry but the athletics will not trade sonny gray for rich hill that is a ridiculous proposal. Rich hill has sucked to be blunt and i would think the cheap stake athletics would not want to pay his salary.

If im the a’s id hold out for a package like corey seager and ryu from the angels. Id even make marcus siemen available as part of the package but for rich hill straight up thats a preposterous suggestion by the writers on this site.

Asking for Seager is as preposterous as not reading and suggesting the Dodgers would try to offer Hill as their main piece. Adding Semien to somewhat reconcile a deal well….. I guess you’ll be holding out until Gray is a FA.

Yeah really well then ill trade him to Washington and a few other good players too to make sure they clobber the dodgers in the playoffs. Washington can just send them back after the season since Oakland isnt going nowhere anyway and it would likely improve their draft position.

You are so out of touch lol. You also act as though Sonny Gray is the only available pitcher. I’m sorry but you’re trolling or in seriously ignorant to the actual trade value of Gray. He’s not bringing back a Trae Turner or a Corey Seager or anyone of that caliber.

can jimenez candelario and cease get gray? i dont see them trading happ schwarber or almora, but i feel like they have to acquire 1 of these controllable starters with arrieta and lackey gone next year, even with how bad theyve both been

If Theo doesn’t offer major league roster players I think he gets out bid for gray Quintana or archer. Will one of them turn Cubs season Around and make them favorites to win it all ? I’d wait and just sign 2 of cueto Lynn Cobb darvish in off season. Cubs can’t keep all of young hitters . not enough places on field to play them all.

That’s enough for Quintana and would be enough to be the major part of an Archer trade, if the Rays decided to let him go. It’s more than enough for Gray. I honestly think you could remove Jimenez and have the main pieces for Gray.

I think Boston could be the team to trade with, they aren’t afraid of big, crazy trades in July. The A’s would love to get Benintendi. If the A’s offer Gray and K.Davis, that could do it. But we can also offer Jed Lowrie and a reliever, either Madson or Doolittle or even both. Just then I’d like a third team to get involved so that the A’s can get their prospects, not the ones the Red Sox have to offer.

I think if the Red Sox want Gray they won’t be able to beat other teams offers without Benintendi. After the Sale trade their farm isn’t as good, so even if they offer Devers plus 4 other of their top prospects I think Houston could offer something that works better for the A’s.

I think an offer of Devers/Groome plus a couple lottery tickets would be more than enough. At that point, I don’t think anybody will make a “better” offer. I put better in quotes because they may find a more appealing offer from someone else, but I don’t think it’ll necessarily be better. If that’s the case, it just depends on which team’s top prospects they prefer at that point.

That being said, I don’t see them offering up Devers for Gray. I don’t think pitching is THAT big of a need where they’d pull the trigger on that. And if they were going to use Devers as a chip, I’m not even close to sold that Gray would be their best option.

In regards to Benintendi, I’m 100% convinced he’s going nowhere. If their only 2 options are 1) trade Benintendi and get Gray or 2) keep Benintendi and get outbid for Gray, I’m positive they’ll happily move onto another target.

The A’s would rather take a guy like Alex Vergulo than Devers, so give us Benintendi or no Gray-that should be the simple message. More likely I see Jed Lowrie going to the Red Sox with Ryan Madson, don’t expect a lot of prospects for them because they both are earning good money.

Gray will not go to Boston because they don’t match up in trades. A’s need OF help not 3B help so Devers is not needed at all. Without Devers Boston doesn’t have enough prospects to trade for Gray without giving up a major league OFer.

This is just silly talk the Red Sox aren’t trading Nintendo or JBJ for Gray it isn’t happening no chance no way. They are a playoff team as is and there pitching has been very good. The Red Sox hitting has been the problem soecifically third base that is where they will probably address. JBJ or Benintendi not going anywhere.

As a Brave fan I don’t want Gray. If we are going to get anybody wait til the offseason and get Verlander or if we will have to move prospects then get an Archer or Cole.
I want Verlander. We can get him as a pure salary dump with minimal pieces being moved and nobody in the rotation other than Teahran will be making any real money unless Dickey’s option is picked up. Which I don’t see happening. Could def use his leadership for this young staff.

Sanchez and Zimmerman would qualify as salary dumps if somebody would want them. I am only going by what I have read about with the old man dead that the Tigers would look to tear it down and I don’t see too many teams out there that would be willing to take on 3 years of Verlander’s salary. The more money they eat the better the prospects they can get in return and I think they would just basically give him away to get out from under that contract. And considering how good Atlanta’s farm is it wouldn’t necessarily be giving him away it just won’t be Maiten, Albies, Newcomb, Acuna, Allard or Soroka.

Phillies jump in and offer Herrera and Joseph for Gray. A’s made it known they want MLB READY (and in this case – Proven and controllable) – maybe it expands and Phillies add another player for Doolittle to be included. (Nick Williams?)

Then they Galvis, Blanco and Neshek to the Nats for Taylor and Difo.
Then trade Hellickson, Kendrick and Benoit + Cash to Orioles for Blach.
Then trade Eickhoff, Crawford, Neris, Hernandez and Moniak to ChiSox for Quintana, Robertson and Anderson.

May also look to trade Franco if they want Moustakas in 2018 FA.

In off-season – Phillies add FA’s JD Martinez, Cobb, Reed and Shaw as well as one more SP from Cueto/Darvish/Arrieta.

In 2019 – they sign Machado as a SS and a Closer to replace Robertson.

Its too early for the Phillies to get a guy they can control only till 2019. They need to hope the young guys like Nick Williams and Jorge Alfardo are going to take over the starting jobs, that still requires time. And Oakland wouldn’t be intrested in Joseph, you wouldn’t get Gray just like that. My advice for the Phillies is take your time until after 2018 for the youngsters, try improving your farm by trading guys like Neshek and then there should be contention in 2019, there will be plenty of superstars available after 2018 to sign, just take the time to know which ones will help the most.

Definitely Turner or Wood – Wood’s value is at a high now compared to all previous years – Turner had career high numbers last year and won’t match them this year; Believe that long-term solution for 3B is to first Find some way to acquire Kyle Seager and in eventually move his brother to third ala the move with Cal Ripken

This coming from the same guy that wanted Plouffee over Turner. Does it really matter if Turner matches his career numbers from last year? Seriously does it? He may not hit 27 HRs, but his 1.000 plus ops is a team best. He also lengthens the lineup and splits Seager and Bellinger up. Turner is the Dodgers best hitter. He’s also a premium defender. He’s a plus plus defender. To underestimate his value is a complete joke. He has one of the highest WARs for a 3b. He is also undoubtably a clubhouse leader. Miss me with this value crap. The goal is to win a WS not sell high on value, because you just create a bigger hole. A bigger hole that you can’t fix. Nor is to trade a controllable young producing asset unless you can replicate his performance. And for Gray? For Sonny Gray who is no longer an Ace and probably profiles as a #2 or a #3. Not to mention his injury issues.

I guess that would mean Farhan had not learned from Billy’s mistake when he traded crucial offense to try to replace it with pitching. You have a farm for a reason, and an immensely deep one at. We’re talking about Sonny Gray here we aren’t talking about Sale or Scherzer or anyone of that caliber. Smh it’s ridiculous only further exasperating is a thought that Seager would be available.

I can see Colorado as a match, especially since if they want to stay in the race they probably need to reload some pitching mid season between the young arms and the general toll that Coors takes out on pitchers

Brinson is the type of player it would take to get Gray. Why would the A’s want Brewers 3rd or 4th best OF prospect? That is not how trades work. The A’s counter with a Jesse Hahn instead of Gray take the A’s back end of rotation pitcher if you want to give up low prospects.