Sunday, June 24, 2012

On the coup in Paraguay

It’s been
awhile since I last posted.It’s been a
busy time, with doing some fieldwork – mainly interviewing people – for a
report which I’m trying to get done by the end of this week.However, I had some spare minutes yesterday
to draft the following about events in Paraguay.Just now I’ve had an email from one of the
editors of our book on the Latin American right, who notes how prescient Peter
Lambert was regarding his chapter on that country.Anyway, for what it’s worth, here’s my take
(and which should possibly be up at the Ideas Centre blog in the next few days –
I hope!):

The recent
impeachment of Paraguay’s president, Fernando Lugo, constitutes a coup by the
country’s right.That it has happened
highlights the political challenges and limitations in relation to the rise of
the left in the so-called pink tide in that country as well as the wider
region.In particular, the coup exposes
both the determination of Lugo’s rivals in the political right to deny the left
power and to hold onto it.At the same
time, the impact of the coup is being felt internationally, as Lugo’s regional
allies face the challenge of ensuing that such actions are prevented from
happening in the future.

Lugo’s challenges

Lugo’s
ejection from office is unsurprising.His election in 2008 marked a break with Paraguay’s past and heralded
the entry of the left into office.Until
then the political right through the Colorado party had dominated Paraguay,
first under the Stroessner dictatorship until 1989.Following the introduction of elections,
Colorado rule was sustained through the use of patronage and corruption.The Colorados’ strong grip on power meant
that there was limited influence by social movements as a counterweight.Lugo’s election therefore relied on him establishing
a precarious alliance with the Liberal party, the main opposition and dissident
offshoot of the Colorados.

Lugo’s
weakness has been apparent over the past four years, partly because the right
has continued to dominate congress. As a result, Lugo’s opportunity to break
its power through the use of consrtitutional reform has been limited.This is in stark contrast the experience of
other leftist leaders, including Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in
Ecuador and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who have all undertaken constitutional
reforms immediately on taking office.

Given this
context, the immediate reason for Lugo’s expulsion from office was the result
from a recent police action to remove a number of squatters from private
land.The action led to 17 deaths
(including several those of a number of policemen) and the resignation of the
interior minister and the chief of police.The government was condemned by congress and impeachment proceedings
instigated against the president.Lugo’s
supporters say that he was not given sufficient time to mount a defence.Despite this, the process went ahead and
Lugo’s vice president, the Liberal party’s Federico Franco, has been sworn in.

Changing realities

Arguably,
congress’s actions amount to a constitutional coup and reflect the amount of
learning undertaken by the political right.In the past Latin American coups were generally extra-constitutional;
during the 1960s and 1970s military juntas took over in Brazil, Chile and
Argentina for example.The outcome was
invariably violent, with the new leaderships settling scores against its
rivals, which in the context of the Cold War, meant actions against suspected
subversives and the ‘disappearances’ of thousands.

The right’s
action in Paraguay shows how much – and how little – politics in the region has
changed.Since the 1980s Latin America
has undergone both political and economic liberalisation, through the rise of
electoral democracy and pro-market reforms.At the same time, these changes were insufficient, contributing to a
‘second democratisation’ as the left were elected to tackle the outstanding
deficiencies of these market reforms, including socio-economic disparities and
persistent poverty.This has resulted in
a number of changes beyond constitutional reform, to include a greater role for
the state in social and economic development.

At the same
time, the leftward trend has prompted confrontation, owing to the right’s
perceived loss of power.In 2002, 2008
and 2010 attempted coups were mounted against Chavez, Morales and Correa
respectively.All three failed, in part
because of diplomatic pressure by the region’s governments.

Against
these failed coups though, the Paraguayan case has succeeded, much like the one
which took place in Honduras against its president, Manuel Zelaya in June
2009.Like Lugo (and Chavez, Morales and
Correa), Zelaya came from the left and faced difficulties in implementing his
programme.To break the deadlock he
planned a consultation on the constitution which the supreme court and congress
judged illegal, being bundled into exile in Costa Rica.Opprobrium rained down on the new
administration with Honduras being suspended from the Organisation of American
States (OAS).Despite this condemnation,
the administration pressed ahead with its own timetable, carrying out the
previously scheduled presidential election at the end of the year and which was
won for the establishment party of Porfirio Lobos.Lobos had previously stood against Zelaya in
2005, losing on that occasion.Following
the election many countries re-established ties with Honduras.In June 2011 Honduras was readmitted to the
OAS while the following month a Truth and Reconciliation Commission found that
Zelaya had indeed been overthrown in a coup.

Towards the future

The
immediate response to Lugo’s ousting has been widespread condemnation within
the region.Brazil’s president, Dilma
Rousseff, has even suggested that Paraguay might face similar sanctions,
including its banishment from the regional common market, Mercosur, and the
continent-wide body, Unasur.Meanwhile,
the US has avoided any explicit statement, limiting itself to expressing its
commitment to the use of due process.This raises questions as to whether Washington views this as a coup or
not.The US position is important, since
it has influence through the use of foreign and military assistance in that
country.

Given the
Washington’s stance and the wider regional outrage, it is difficult to see how
this will lead to any significant change on the ground in Paraguay.The instigators of Lugo’s removal can claim
that they have followed constitutional processes, which provides a similar
veneer of legitimacy to their actions as that in Honduras three years ago.At the same time this approach offers a way
for the Franco government to keep the door open to reconstitute ties with its
neighbours in the near future.This will
be helped by the new administration’s decision to follow the election timetable
and not stay in place beyond April 2013.

In sum
then, the effect of the Paraguayan right’s actions only serves to expose the
level and the extent of the opposition to social, political and economic reform
by the left, both in Paraguay and Latin America more generally.It demonstrates the unwillingness of
established political actors to allow challenges to the status quo and the way
in which coups can be engineered ‘legally’.At the same time it exposes the relative impotence of international
actors in ensuring that the constitutional mandates of democratically elected
presidents are adhered to.Consequently,
this raises questions as to how the region’s governments (and societies) can
ensure that such actions are prevented from taking place in the future.Just as international criticism and sanctions
failed to dislodge the coup fixers in Honduras in 2009, so it would appear that
the same will happen in Paraguay in 2012.

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