On paper, this week's World Trade Organisation talks in Doha, Qatar, should provide the launch pad for a fresh round of trade talks and an opportunity for developing countries to have more of a voice than usual when they bump up against the rich nations.

It is not simply a case of the negotiators putting the 1999 Seattle debacle behind them. The global economy is teetering on the brink of recession, and the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, is among the influential voices calling for a new and speedy round of talks to pump up economic growth.

Nor will American attention be focused simply on trade issues. The war against terrorism means the US will be intent on winning or keeping friends. Last week Jon Huntsman, US deputy trade representative for Asia, made it clear his delegation would be looking at issues such as market access for industrial products, agriculture, services and government procurement.

It will soft-pedal on issues such as labour rights and the environment which developing countries often feel are used as barriers against them. America's run-in with the German chemicals and pharmaceuticals group, Bayer, over Cipro, the antibiotic used in treating anthrax, may also encourage poorer nations to press for amendments to patent rights that would make badly-needed but expensive drug treatments for Aids, TB and malaria more affordable and therefore more widely available.

But don't bank on Doha on being a shoo-in. The drugs issue could be a deal-breaker. Trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights - the issue at the centre of the drugs debate - is widely known as Trips and could all too easily live up to that billing.

At the weekend, the British and German governments were reported to have blocked a European commission initiative to reform patent law. Other countries with important pharmaceutical interests are unlikely to be keen to see the rules change.

The director general of the WTO, Mike Moore, reckons there is a decent chance of Doha sparking a confidence-boosting trade round. But others think it may be a closer call. The French foreign trade secretary, Francois Hewart, recently described the situation as very tense.

As if the Trips issue were not enough, textiles, anti-dumping rules, and agriculture have the potential to derail the talks. Japan, for example, is likely to take a cautious approach - at best - on farm-trade liberalisation. Farmers, after all, form a core part of support for the ruling Liberal Democratic party.

Sadly, the negotiators are not starting with a blank sheet of paper. Some developing countries argue that rich countries have not lived up to all the pledges made during the last round. They will press for redress before moving on to new issues.

Still there are some blessings. At least the meeting is taking place - opening the way for a new round. Post September 11, some of the key players may be prepared to listen more attentively to the other delegations rather than to protectionist lobbies back home.

Keep your fingers crossed. If Doha gets a fresh trade round up and running all well and good. If it turns into a Seattle-style shambles, however, it will prove a mighty setback for the cause of trade liberalisation.