Sunday, July 31, 2016

I thought Obamacare done us in two years ago. Since then I been calling for something safe, just a few bounces above zero. Now they tell me I have to time a recession again. No thanks. Looking stupid twice is enough. But we likely get a recession, when we have been embarrassed for calling wolf.

What other RBC proof do we need than major economists planning a rate cycle. Here is a clue, if the Fed were really doing its job, then rates, at any given time, are equally likely to go down or up. When we plan a cycle, we plan a recession.

Friday, July 29, 2016

WASHINGTON—A federal appeals court Friday invalidated an array of voting restrictions North Carolina imposed in 2013, finding that they violated the Voting Rights Act by obstructing African-Americans’ access to the polls.

OK, photo ID is the norm folks, and I have a clue, Black people actually know about photographs, some of them even figured out photos appear on an ID card. So, you friggen idiots, make all the statements about incredible ignorant Black people, go ahead, make them public. Blacks are the idiots for listening.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Atlantic City is likely to default on $3.4 million of debt payments on Aug. 1 without an agreement with New Jersey on a $74 million bridge loan or other state action, according to Moody’s Investors Service.Although state lawmakers had approved a loan as part of a rescue package in May for the distressed gaming hub, the terms are still being worked out between the state and city. Mayor Don Guardian told residents in a meeting Tuesday evening that city council would approve the agreement when it’s reached, according to a presentation on the city’s website."Absent receipt of state support, we believe a default would likely set off a series of missed debt payments and revive the prospect of the city filing for bankruptcy" or a restructuring, Moody’s said in a statement Wednesday.Michael Stinson, the city’s revenue and finance director, didn’t return an e-mail requesting comment Wednesday. The city had previously said it would make financial obligations this week.

What is options pricing theory? We are trying to make the best bet on a price trend when the alternative is a safe rate deposit. The price statistics are spreading over time, so the investors have to pick a quantity to match the future statistics spread; and a price to match the trend.

Currency banking, the act of making secure counting digits, works Black-Sholes in reverse. When the NGDP value is computed and announced, then the currency banker sets the safe rate(s), as it should have been, and member banks takes gains and losses (as does the currency banker).

In the simplest model, we set the transaction costs of currency banking to zero, and assume entry and exit by member banks. Currency risk is marked to market ASAP. That model makes the central banker a spreadsheet function with an asset value nearly zero, spreadsheet functions have no wealth.

CalWatch: Gov. Jerry Brown vetoed a bill on Monday that would have allowed him and his successors to cancel a special election if there is only one candidate.Brown was concerned that while there may be only one candidate officially running, there are often one or more write-in candidates running as well.“In the situation envisioned by this bill, potential write-in candidates would be excluded from participating in the election,” Brown wrote in the veto message. “That doesn’t seem consistent with democratic principles that call for choice and robust debate.”The bill was sponsored by Sen. Sharon Runner, R-Lancaster, who died earlier this month, ending a longtime battle with scleroderma. Runner was elected in a special election last year with 94.1 percent, with six write-in candidates splitting the remainder of votes.The Runner election cost Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties almost $1.7 million total. Had it been signed into law, the Runner bill would have allowed Brown to cancel a special election and declare an officially unopposed candidate like Runner the winner.Legislators have long looked for a way to ease the burden and costs of special elections on counties and voters. A CalWatchdog investigation earlier this year showed that counties have spend around $21.7 million on special elections replacing state lawmakers since 2013.

Jerry nailed this one, but he fabricated his reasoning. The real reason local voters pay expensively for worthless special elections is because local voters are not paying attention to local issues. Local voters, pay attention to the local politicals, they have hidden agendas and cause side-effects.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

I removed shelter and medical from the CPI all items, mainly because housing was Asian rebalance and medical government driven. Everything else is dropping in price. How far will prices drop?I dunno. But if our investors heave been running an expense called inflation risk, then that variable will force prices back to 1977, shortly after the Nixon Shock. Double entry accounting works.

Illinois teachers unions has rigged Title 1 education money earmarked for the poor. Illinois has law that lets them take up to 35% of title o` funds and stuff their pension bank. Np other states do this. So what happens when the Kanosians get their infrastructure spending? All the state governments will use the money to transfer pension debt to federal taxpayers, nothing of substance is built.

Illinois’ most impoverished school districts have lost millions of dollars to a scheme intended to shore up the state’s monumentally underfunded teacher pension reserve.And it’s about to get worse.Unlike their counterparts in other states, Illinois school districts pay a steep premium to the Teachers’ Retirement System, or TRS, if they use Title I federal money to hire teachers.Madison record Districts are assessed 36.06 percent of salaries paid with federal Title I funds, and that is set to increase to 38.54 percent for the 2016-2017 school year. By comparison, the rate for a district not using Title I money is and will remain 0.58 percent.So a district using Title I money to hire a teacher at $50,000 a year would fork over $19,270 to TRS, but the tab for a district paying a teacher the same salary out of state and local funds would be $290.To paraphrase U.S. Rep. Robert Dold, taxpayers from across the nation are pouring vast sums into Illinois’ teacher pension-debt quagmire. And the biggest losers? The very ones the Title I money is intended to aid – low-income students.“There’s no question we need to get the fiscal house in order in the state of Illinois,” said Dold, R-Ill. “But to try to do this by taking federal dollars meant to shore up some of the neediest school districts is the wrong approach.”

Breitbart: A group of young Muslim men threatened men, women, and children at a swimming pool in Germany because they were offended by the fact the bathers were nude.A swimming pool in the town of Geldern in the North Rhine-Westphalia region of Germany is home to bathers who prefer a more “natural” form of swimming. Nudists at the pool were verbally abused by a group of young Muslim men who threatened them because they consider swimming in the nude ‘indecent behaviour’. The group of Muslims not only threatened the male bathers but also spat upon them and several women and children, reports Junge Freiheit.A total of six Muslim men were involved in the incident and are described by witnesses as being in their mid 20’s, all with full Islamic-style beards. The men insulted and threatened the nudists in both German and Arabic, yelling “Allahu akbar” at the bathers along with other Arabic insults.

Sexual hysterics have no place in society, they generally end up living among the highway plants, homeless.

US economic growth is on track to post an encouraging rebound in this Friday’s “advance” GDP report for the second quarter. By most estimates, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report that output will rise by 2%-plus in Q2, well above the subdued 1.1% rise in Q1 GDP (seasonally adjusted annual rates).

Bloomberg: The federal government's own actuaries are once again pessimisticthat America's health-care costs will continue their slow growth. Thankfully, their boss, Sylvia Burwell, the secretary of Health and Human Services, is working hard to prove them wrong. On Monday, she took another big step in the right direction.Medicare costs this year are up only 4 percent, which means that on an inflation-adjusted basis, spending per beneficiary is declining. And that’s been the pattern of the past five years -- despite the actuaries’ repeated predictions that cost growth is on the verge of picking up.

A 4% price growth when total CPI is growing at about 1%. The growth skew is enough to insure bankruptcy, eventually. Peter is happy it might happen on schedule, not rushed by accelerated inflation (second derivative),

LA Times: To help ease California’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown and state lawmakers are turning to people’s backyards.

Multiple bills with the endorsement of Brown are moving through the Legislature to make it easier for homeownersto build small units on their properties, whether in their garages, as additions to existing homes or as new, freestanding structures.

Together, the Bloom and Wieckowski bills would force cities to permit the backyard homes — also known as “secondary units” or “granny flats” — eliminate cities’ ability to require additional parking spaces for units near transit, and limit fees charged to connect to local water and sewer systems.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Bloomberg: China’s top internet regulator ordered major online companies including Sina Corp. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. to stop original news reporting, the latest effort by the government to tighten its grip over the country’s web and information industries.

The Cyberspace Administration of China imposed the ban on several major news portals, including Sohu.com Inc. and NetEase Inc., Chinese media reported in identically worded articles citing an unidentified official from the agency’s Beijing office. The companies have “seriously violated” internet regulations by carrying plenty of news content obtained through original reporting, causing “huge negative effects,” according to a report that appeared in The Paper on Sunday.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Seller's holding onto houses against the Asian buyers. In California many sellers are retiring baby boomers, taking cash and downsizing. Tis is a volatile group and might all suddenly jump at a sales opportunity if their employment options dwindle a bit. The buys ae marginally dominated by the Asian rebalance, and the flow is volatile, subject to Communist edict.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

New York has obtained a confidential document from the Malaysian police investigation into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 that shows that the plane’s captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, conducted a simulated flight deep into the remote southern Indian Ocean less than a month before the plane vanished under uncannily similar circumstances. The revelation, which Malaysia withheld from a lengthy public report on the investigation, is the strongest evidence yet that Zaharie made off with the plane in a premeditated act of mass murder-suicide.

The document presents the findings of the Malaysian police’s investigation into Zaharie. It reveals that after the plane disappeared in March of 2014, Malaysia turned over to the FBI hard drives that Zaharie used to record sessions on an elaborate home-built flight simulator. The FBI was able to recover six deleted data points that had been stored by the Microsoft Flight Simulator X program in the weeks before MH370 disappeared, according to the document. Each point records the airplane’s altitude, speed, direction of flight, and other key parameters at a given moment. The document reads, in part:

Business Insider: Bar-Zeev, who recently joined Israel’s Zuckerberg Institute for Water Research after completing his postdoc work at Yale University, is an expert on biofouling, which has always been an Achilles’ heel of desalination and one of the reasons it has been considered a last resort. Desal works by pushing saltwater into membranes containing microscopic pores. The water gets through, while the larger salt molecules are left behind. But microorganisms in seawater quickly colonize the membranes and block the pores, and controlling them requires periodic costly and chemical-intensive cleaning. But Bar-Zeev and colleagues developed a chemical-free system using porous lava stone to capture the microorganisms before they reach the membranes. It’s just one of many breakthroughs in membrane technology that have made desalination much more efficient. Israel now gets 55 percent of its domestic water from desalination, and that has helped to turn one of the world’s driest countries into the unlikeliest of water giants.

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China has completed production of the world's largest amphibious aircraft after seven years of work, which it plans to use to perform marine rescue missions and fight forest fires, the Xinhua news agency reported.

"It's a new level of invasion," Stone said of the game. "Nobody has ever seen, in the history of the world, something like Google, ever. It's the fastest-growing business ever, and they have invested huge amounts of money into what surveillance is, which is data-mining. They're data-mining every person in this room for information as to what you're buying, what it is you like, and above all, your behavior."

So what does all that have to do with Pokemon Go? Stone was happy to elaborate."Pokemon Go kicks into that. It's everywhere. It's what some people call surveillance capitalism. It's the newest stage," he said. "You'll see a new form of, frankly, a robot society, where they will know how you want to behave and they will make the mockup that matches how you behave and feed you. It's what they call totalitarianism."

Bold face mine. the mockup, it is your typical moves. Oliver is a smart kid, that is exactly what the bots do, they find and model the typical you. Then they have you and the model co-adapt about that typical motion. We will do this because we maintain a partitite graph, as best we can. We find that partite graph on the encode/decode tree, the Huffman encoded version of you that generates your typical moves from random noise taking paths through a copression/decompression graph.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

National Convention on Wednesday night without endorsing the party's nominee, Donald Trump, and exited the stage to loud boos from the crowd.
Most of Cruz's speech seemed well-received by the crowd at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, but once it became clear that the former 2016 presidential candidate would not endorse Trump, the crowd started booing.
Not only did Cruz neglect to endorse Trump, but he also told the audience to vote their conscience in November.

It's either Trump or the public sector socialists from California take over, once again.

NYRB: Most of the building blocks for an effective asylum system are available; they only need to be assembled into a comprehensive and coherent policy. Critically, refugees and the countries that contain them in the Middle East must receive enough financial support to make their lives there viable, allowing them to work and to send their children to school. That would help to keep the inflow of refugees to a level that Europe can absorb. This can be accomplished by establishing a firm and reliable target for the number of refugee arrivals: between 300,000 and 500,000 per year. This number is large enough to give refugees the assurance that many of them can eventually seek refuge in Europe, yet small enough to be accommodated by European governments even in the current unfavorable political climate.

George needs to include Italy and North African refugees, nor do you count the catastrophe in the middle east when oil is in deflation. The EU is going to subsidize up to 30 million, at least; otherwise they are headed north.

Reuters: Turkey will announce emergency measures on Wednesday to try to shore up stability and prevent damage to the economy as it purges thousands of members of the security forces, judiciary, civil service and academia after an abortive coup.Around 50,000 soldiers, police, judges, civil servants and teachers have been suspended or detained since the military coup attempt, raising tensions across the country of 80 million which borders Syria's chaos and is a Western ally against Islamic State.Academics were banned from traveling abroad on Wednesday in what a Turkish official said was a temporary measure to prevent the risk of alleged coup plotters in universities from fleeing. State TRT television said 95 academics had been removed from their posts at Istanbul University alone.

NEW YORK (AP) — Macy's is testing a mobile tool using artificial intelligence that lets shoppers get answers customized to the store they're in — like where a particular brand is located or what's in stock — that they would normally ask a sales associate face-to-face.The tool, which the nation's largest department store chain calls a "mobile companion," can be accessed for now through a browser and will accept questions in 10 U.S. locations about products, services and facilities. It uses natural language and offers feedback in seconds.

Brad is worried we do not have enough deficit spending in the Swamp, expansionary he calls is. But we can see that the events will soon turn Brad's way and deficit expansion is on its way. We have turned the corner, we are ready to have our pro-cyclical deficit expansion.

CPC Central Committee, Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman Fan Changlong emphasized recently in the southern theater forces research, to earnestly study and implement President Xi major strategic thinking and decision-making important instructions, adhere to the party's absolute leadership over the army, firmly grasp the Party in the new situation strong military target under the full implementation of the political army reform and a strong army, in army stepping up preparations for military struggle, strengthen the combat of military training, and constantly improve deterrence and combat capability, and resolutely obey the Central military Commission and President Xi command, and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests.Central Military Commission, commander of the Air Force Ma Xiaotian, CMC member and rocket forces commander Wei Feng and were about to participate in research.Fan Changlong stressed the need to deeply understand the complexity of the grim situation facing the security, stepping up preparations for military struggle of the work to ensure that the order, be able to have to go win the war. Focus on the difficult situation to deal with complex, targeted research warfare countermeasures, revision and improvement plan program, deepen all aspects of preparation of personnel, equipment, security and so on. Depth specializing in refining and confrontational drills used in efforts to build a critical moment, to play a key role in the "dagger" forces, improve military and emergency response capabilities assault capability.Strengthen combat duty, well-organized air and sea patrol, firmly secure disposal of various contingencies, to ensure air safety side of the sea. We must resolutely implement the Party Central Committee and President Xi instructions requirements, support local flood prevention work to do, to protect people's lives and property, to restore normal production and life order to contribute.

So we see that Xi is a bit ding dong. What does he plan ? Maybe fill in the whole Chinese sea with mud like some deranged Kanosian hat trick.

Mirror, UK:
This footage (suck ass Adobe that I can't paste) captured the moment a man ran naked through a town square shouting 'praise to Allah'.
Three policemen tried to stop the streaker as he ran at full speed through a public space.

A public nudity religion, an Allah I can understand. So, sure, Islamics can run around naked and scream; a bunch of women did it to the RNC.

NBFR: We propose a new source of cross-sectional variation that may identify causal impacts of government spending on the economy. We use the fact that a large number of federal spending programs depend on local population levels. Every ten years, the Census provides a count of local populations. Since a different method is used to estimate non-Census year populations, this change in methodology leads to variation in the allocation of billions of dollars in federal spending. Our baseline results follow a treatment-effects framework where we estimate the effect of a Census Shock on federal spending, income, and employment growth by re-weighting the data based on an estimated propensity score that depends on lagged economic outcomes and observed economic shocks. Our estimates imply a local income multiplier of government spending between 1.7 and 2, and a cost per job of $30,000 per year. A complementary IV estimation strategy yields similar estimates. We also explore the potential for spillover effects across neighboring counties but we do not find evidence of sizable spillovers. Finally, we test for heterogeneous effects of government spending and find that federal spending has larger impacts in low-growth areas.

I have not read the paper, it is gated. According to federal law, The census and the yearly population estimates result in changes for federal funds that are population based. So, each year funds are re-matched to population. This should help the local economies, and it does, say the researchers.Does this research say anything about hysterical Kanosian pension stuffers? No, those folks plan bail outs for their favorite programs.

Time: In Baltimore, the police department is requiring that two cars respond to all calls. In Chicago, officers now patrol neighborhoods in pairs. And in Los Angeles, the department is shifting officers to serve as extra backup while increasing the number of helicopters flying above the city.Following the horrific attacks on police officers in Baton Rouge and Dallas, which left eight cops dead and 10 wounded, law enforcement around the country are responding by adjusting strategy, changing tactics and adopting measures they hope will guard against similar plots.Some of the most extensive changes are happening in LA, where on Sunday Mayor Eric Garcetti announced that officers from LAPD’s Metropolitan Division, which normally deals with crime suppression and community-based policing efforts, would temporarily assist those on patrol.

Crime suppression drops, small thefts lead to rage and violence. Ya think Zuckerhead can figure this out?

LA Times: Premiums for Californians’ Obamacare health coverage will rise by an average of 13.2% next year — more than three times the increase of the last two years and a jump that is bound to raise debate in an election year.The big hikes come after two years in which California officials had bragged that the program had helped insure hundreds of thousands people in the state while keeping costs moderately in check.Premiums in the insurance program called Covered California rose just 4% in 2016, after rising 4.2% in 2015 – the first year that exchange officials negotiated with insurers.On Tuesday, officials blamed next year’s premium hikes in the program that insures 1.4 million Californians on rising costs of medical care, including specialty drugs, and the end of a mechanism that held down rates for the first three years of Obamacare.

Business Insider: The US government is planning to file lawsuits to block the massive mergers of four healthcare giants,according to Bloomberg.The Department of Justice will attempt to block both the $54 billion deal between Anthem and Cigna, which would create the largest health insurance company based on the number of people covered, and a $37 billion takeover of Humana by Aetna.

Bonehead liberals claim to want single payer, so the health companies merge, creating a single payer Then the liberals claim, Oh No, that's not what we meant.

Business Insider: The income disparity between age groups is down to a few things:

1. Old people's pensions and subsidies are healthy — during the recovery period from the financial crisis, the government "triple locked" the state pension, meaning that old people would receive a return on their pension, whichever is the highest out of inflation, earnings, or 2.5%. On top of that, they have non-means-tested subsidies on winter fuel payments.

Pensioners also get free bus travel and free prescriptions, and even a Christmas bonus. But a lot of people aged 60 and over are still working.

2. The younger generation have stagnant wages and higher living costs — in contrast to pensioners, younger people are either struggling to get into the jobs markets, despite record low unemployment, and if they do work, their wages are pretty meagre when weighing up living costs.

Millennials and those aged up to 60, do not have subsidies like older people. They are less likely to own a home, have savings, and therefore pour most of their money into rent, transport, utility bills, and food.

More dangerous than a hundred million immigrants swarming across Europe?More dangerous than forced busing of children?More dangerous than Baltimore?More dangerous than Hillary's dysfunctional foreign policy?More dangerous than racial quotas?

Wiki: The constitution limits the political rights of Pakistan’s non-Muslims, and only Muslims are allowed to become the President or the Prime Minister. Moreover, only Muslims are allowed to serve as judges in the Federal Shariat Court, which has the power to strike down any law deemed un-Islamic, though its judgments can be overruled by the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

MarketWatch: Don’t look for a rise in U.S. interest rates until 2018, Morgan Stanley strategists said on Monday as they released their latest outlook.The Federal Reserve won’t be able to hike rates this year or next year because U.S. economic growth will let down the bulls, according to these strategists.“We think global growth really disappoints over the next 12 months — particularly in developed markets, particularly in the U.S,” said Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist, on Monday.

His bank sees the U.S. economy expanding by 1.5% in 2017, while the consensus view is 2.3%, he said at a press briefing in London.Morgan Stanley’s strategists recommend that investors continue to favor U.S. stocksSPX, +0.24% as the Fed stands pat on rates until 2018. They’ve reiterated their call for investors to be overweight U.S. equities, as shown in the graphic below. Low rates generally have been seen as supporting stocks.

Monday, July 18, 2016

For the best example of the non-compute intractability of this problem, considerNigeria. It had 21 million people when I was born and now has 187 million. In arecent poll, 40% of Nigerians (75 million) said they would like to emigrate, mostly to the UK (population 64 million). Difficult. But the official UN estimate for Nigeria’s population in 2100 is over 800 million! (They still have a fertility rate of six children per woman.) Without discussing the likelihood of ever reaching 800 million, I suspect you will understand the problem at hand. Impossible.

Impossible is the correct term. Merkel's idea is that all 60 million immigrants move to France.

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Is he right? Let's check Baltimore since, Zuckerhead and the BLM kicked out the cops.At a murder rate of 55 per 100,000; that makes a 1% chance of being shot to death over a twenty year period. Now add seriously wounded. Got that? Lets quadruple that for a family of four. And we discover a Baltimore family has a 1 in 4 chance of being blasted apart by gun shot before the kids are off to college.And the genociders and genocidees are young Black males, just like our villain.

Money Realism: Helicopter money at its core is a fiscal idea corresponding to fiscal responsibility. Crediting commercial bank money accounts or even “dropping” currency ex nihilo to selected private sector recipients – with no financial assets received in exchange – constitutes a transfer payment, which according to common sense is a form of government spending.

Helicopter money is a transfer payment as long as the Fed is the monopoly currency banker. So my simple model is corrupted, there is no mild competition for the Fed. Hence no speculation about the helicopter, G always pays the currency losses. That is no different than saying the US Congress is way to bzonkers to be a member bank. No matter how one puts the problem, as long as Congress has a monopoly on money, there is not much mark to market going on at the Fed.

Economists start with central banking, an awfully incomplete model. I make it simple.

The currency banker runs a savings and loan, for the member banks. The currency banker publishes its marginal gains or losses, as well as its volatility bounds, as well as the currency growth. It examines the volatility of deposit balances and volatility of loan balances. When these exceed the bounds, rates are computed backwards, each member bank taking gains and losses. The currency banker takes gains and losses, and publishes its gain and lose history.

If the currency is growing in use, and operating within volatility, then the currency banker is taking regular losses; but prices are stable. The currency banker has no bias, it follows the member bankers up and down. Member banks are under some competition so exit and entry preserved.

Now, just define the volatility equation you want from the currency banker; then go do some Ito's calculus with the data. If your currency banker equation is derived from the G based accounting identity, then your model is likely to be unstable, too much asymmetry. G violates the entry-exit requirement for member banks.

And transaction costs are zero. The cost of protecting the currency denominations, and shipping them around. This ancillary cost must be way below any real good flow variation.

In what good is the currency redeemable?

'Well the currency banker guarantees absolute honest account,mainly because it can be a spreadsheet function. So the currency is redeemable because the futures price follows the safe rate rule, with published volatility bound. It uses a well known futures pricing model, inverted, so it computes the safe rate.Your 'digits' are likely spendable with the many merchants who cause the bounded volatility.

Press Democrat: Taxpayer costs for Sonoma County employee pensions are set to continue climbing for at least the next seven years, stripping away funds for public services and limiting the county’s ability to fund new initiatives, according to a citizen-led review of the county’s retirement spending.By 2023, pension costs are projected to hit $146 million per year, a 700 percent increase since 2000, three years before the county — like most others in the state — first boosted retirement benefits for workers.

Soon to be retired will not take the chance, and will get out early adding to the woes. Not are new workers very excited about 7 years of employment before retirement funds go bust.

Came out after 9/11, the Wamy director and Bushie were partners in a big defense business firm. This original post from Breitbart links Huma, one of Hillary's aides to Wamy. Why do politicians celebrate the religious psychotic?

Friday, July 15, 2016

Reports are arriving that our villain was alone after the wife and kids ditch him, he has the fear of losing the old manhood. Now such hysterical hombres typically join 10th century religions that preach the fear of the knife. Notice the common use of the sword by muslims to remove various parts of a criminal's anatomy.

Musk once noted how small a surface area is needed to run transportation if solar electric had a 15% end to end efficiency. That amount of surface area is a corner of Nevada, enough to significantly reduce CO2 levels, in a first order model.It is entirely reasonable that some biological process would suddenly evolve that captured CO2 with that efficiency. New plant species routinely take over regions of that size in paleo history.If such a biological process suddenly bloomed just as the CO2 was rising, then the warming cycle is stopped, partial equilibrium reached in the glacial cycle and we are stuck at the holocene.What biological process? Early humans discover "no-till" farming. They store up huge caches of seed, then at spring we have a human ritual of planting everywhere along the melting ice line. A small farming community of a few hundred thousand in dispersed villages could easily seed a corner of Nevada. Nature's existing seed dispersal patterns, would have never seen this efficiency, there would be no counter adaptation.Pre-columbian agriculture:

So the globe is warming, each season new areas are opening up north and we get a Malthusian expansion. Huge plains are flooded by the melting waters, Humans crowding the ice line across the globe, throwing out seed on the muddy plain.

It is helicopter time in Japan, I have heard, money permanently lost in the economy. OK, but do the transaction up front, have your society take a stab at the future price of life. Here is my suggestion:

3% per year debt jubilee for government. 3% cut in current and future pension, and a 3% sales tax hike, a 3% upward tilt in the progressive tax table.. Then, for stimulus, a big government check for each new baby. The contract subject to legislative risk.

Absent a deal, the result of the helicopter is to push the curve right, everyone piles the money and waits for a deal. Price discovery is fundamental, absent discovery the double entry accounting system fails. The legislature has to take play a card to generate betting possibilities..

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Fresno Media: Moralez, who was a cop in Fresno for 30 years, was found dead in 2004 not far from the home of the Chief of Police, Jerry Dyer.In 2004, Dyer suspended Moralez for allegedly violating department policy, and took his badge and firearm from him. November 9, 2004, Moralez went to Dyer’s home to confront him after working out in his garage with his 13-year-old son. That was the last time anyone saw Jose Moralez alive.It was reported at the time that a motorist saw Jose face down, near a truck, with an alleged self-inflicted gunshot wound to his chest.Apparent in a statement made by then City Manager, Daniel G. Hobbs, not everyone believed Jose’s death was a suicide:

NY Post: In an unusual move, FBI agents working the Hillary Clinton email case had to sign a special form reminding them not to blab about the probe to anyone unless called to testify.Sources said they had never heard of the “Case Briefing Acknowledgment” form being used before, although all agents must initially sign nondisclosure agreements to obtain security clearance.“This is very, very unusual. I’ve never signed one, never circulated one to others,” said one retired FBI chief.An FBI agent currently on the job admitted, “I have never heard of such a form. Sounds strange.”Meanwhile, FBI agents expressed their “disappointment” over FBI Director James Comey’sdecision not to recommend charges against Clinton, sources close to the matter told The Post.“FBI agents believe there was an inside deal put in place after the Loretta Lynch/Bill Clinton tarmac meeting,” said one source.

Zero Hedge: In a shockingly non-politically-correct outburst, Patrick Calvar, chief of the Directorate General of Internal Security, told members of the French parliamentary commission that thanks to the increasing frequency of sexual assaults by islamic migrants, "Extremism is growing everywhere... We are on the brink of civil war."

Zero Hedge: In a lawsuit filed in Texas, Larry Klayman - a former prosecutor for the U.S. Department of Justice and founder of the conservative watchdog organizations Judicial Watch and Freedom Watch - has accused President Obama, Black Lives Matter founders and former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder among others, of fueling a race war that led to the murder of police in Dallas last week. The lawsuit seeks “to redress the incitement, threats and killings provoked by the defendants."
In his lawsuit, Klayman also named Al Sharpton and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in the suit. The lawsuit, filed Saturday in Dallas, alleges that the defendants are guilty of civil rights violations, terrorist promotion of gang activity, and aiding and abetting murder.
The defendants are accused of “inciting the imminent serious bodily injury and killing of police officers and other law enforcement persons of all races and ethnicities, Jews, and Caucasians by convincing their supporters and others that there is a civil war between blacks and law enforcement, thereby calling for immediate violence and severe bodily injury or death in response to that non-existent and fictitious threat.”

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System – the nation’s largest pension trust fund – took a beating during the Great Recession, dropping nearly $100 billion in value.

However, it recovered nicely as the nation emerged from recession and finally got back to its pre-recession level three years ago.

At the time, it sparked much celebratory verbiage from the system’s professional cheerleaders. But the public employee union flacks have been noticeably quiet since then – for good reason.

CalPERS’ investment portfolio barely eked out a profit during the 2014-15 fiscal year and it performed even more poorly during the 2015-16 cycle that ended June 30, declining by $8 billion (2.6 percent) to $293.7 billion.

Thus, CalPERS is falling extremely short of its earnings benchmark, known as the discount rate, of 7.5 percent per year, and its average earnings over the last two decades are now under that level.

It also means the fund is scarcely 70 percent of fully covering liabilities, even at 7.5 percent, and therefore under the 80 percent deemed to be minimally sufficient,

The timing for flat earnings couldn’t be worse. CalPERS is seeing pension outlays rise as baby boomer workers retire in large numbers and claim benefits that politicians irresponsibly increased during a brief period of high earnings. Moreover, the projected lifespan of retirees continues to increase, which means even more outlays.