At what point do the Phillies fans stop eating crow over their team’s failure to fulfill the championship expectations of which they were all convinced and move on to that blind, “we’re number 1!” stuff for 2012 that we know will come and love so very much when it does?

Heck, why not now? Gambling on baseball is the dumbest thing in the history of dumb things, but I guess some people do it because why else would they release odds about it? Here’s the just-released odds for 2012 from Bodog:

That’s the whole point though. If you bet on the Cardinals now, and they re-sign Pujols later, you got good odds on your investment. If you bet on the Cardinals before La Russa announced his retirement, you locked in bad odds since the odds against them likely grew after that announcement.

It’s boring when everybody knows what’s going to happen, but if you can predict the off-season (even though no one can) you can really have some fun.

I like the Nats actually. I root for them when they aren’t playing Philly. I expect them to be in the fight for 2nd in the NL east in 2012. Honestly.

thefalcon123 - Oct 31, 2011 at 12:51 PM

The Phillies offense is in trouble next year. They finished 7th in runs scored in 2011 and no one has gotten any younger. Howard is going to miss part of the year. He and Utley are having a harder time staying healthy and they have shown very clear drops in their number of the past few years. Hunter Pence will likely come down to earth from a .361 BABIP in 2011. Polanco slugged a meager .339 and that’s not likely to improve at age 36.
They need to get another bat or have a Dom Brown step up, otherwise they might end up in the same boat as the 2003 Dodgers (okay, there offense isn’t going to be THAT bad).

Expect Ruben Amaro to make some major moves this offseason. I would not be surprised to see him trade a Victorino to improve the club. I am convinced now they need a few more contact hitters and high OBP guys, along with another power hitter. Victorino is one of the few tradeable pieces they have to improve the club.

Yeah, trading your best position player is a great way to improve the club.

halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:31 PM

The reason the Phillies trade Victorino is to get either younger (multiple players in return) or to improve at a position that they need (3rd base). If X-club can move an experienced 3rd baseman because they have depth at that position but are thin in the outfield, the Phillies can move a guy like Victorino.

These are the type of moves Amaro needs to consider to improve the ballclub. The only untouchable commodities on the Phillies are the starting pitchers.

The point paperlions is making is that there aren’t many players in baseball better than Victorino. It’d be tough to get enough value back. And don’t they kind of need a stud OF? Isn’t that a position of need?

halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 1:41 PM

Mayberry Jr. can play center, Pence will be in right. The Phillies can pick up a left fielder in FA on the cheap. My concern is improving 3rd base and the bench, while getting a little younger. A guy like Victorino may have enough trade value to achieve it.

No Biceps, just say NO. Victorino is the best player on the Phills as we speak. There is no reason to trade him. You get back people you’ll hate, it makes no sense. Polanco is better than last season tells you (injuries). My largest concerns are SS, 2nd, and 1st base actually. Do they keep Jimmy and give him more years than they want to? Can Utley ever get back to where he was? Can Howard be effective at all next season?

halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:37 PM

Jonny,

Sometimes difficult decisions have to be made to improve the ballclub as a whole. Do I necessary want to trade Victorino? No. But, this lineup needs to be improved. It’s too hot or cold offensively for my liking. We saw it all year. You have to give up talent to receive talent in return.

I have started to change my opinion on Rollins return. If we lose him to FA, I’m OK with it. I’ve grown tired of his plate discipline and antics off the field. He should start keeping his mouth shut. He’s a 6 or 7 hole hitter at this point. No leadoff hitter.

I don’t know if Polanco will ever be right. Probably a bench/part time player at this point. Time to get younger and upgrade 3rd.

They are stuck with Utley. They can only hope he can return to respectable form. Same thing with Howard. They are stuck with him and he will more than likely contribute a shell of what he is capable of next year. Look to 2013 for Howard to be 100% again.

spudchukar - Oct 31, 2011 at 2:58 PM

Wouldn’t Worley bring somebody?

halladaysbiceps - Oct 31, 2011 at 3:04 PM

Yes, spuds. Worley is a trading chip as well. So is Domonic Brown, along with Victorino.

I would only part with Worley in a trade if they bring back Oswalt for a couple of more years (which I want greatly). You can never have too much pitching.

And no one thinks that the Yankees are NOT going to drop a couple of surprises this Year? Cash is back, we’ll have a killer DH in 2012 whether we sign one or not, a lucky pitcher of some renown will discover the price is right, Joe will stop watching TLR tapes, and the expenditure hasn’t kept up with inflation.
There’s $225M burning a hole in somebody’s pocket.

If you think the Rangers are going to sign Sabathia, this is a good time to buy those odds. If you think Pujols is going to the Nationals, that would have to impact your thinking.

Look, I’ve been saying that Rick Perry would get the GOP nomination for, like, 6 months now. (Well before he was a declared candidate.) For a while there, I looked brilliant. Now, not so much. Stuff changes. Doesn’t mean you can’t make a prediction.

Ok, year after year we see that the playoffs are a crapshoot – that rarely does one team have much better than maybe a 55% chance in a 5 or 7 game series. That being the case, any odds under 7-1 are a terrible deal. I suppose if you built a team that you were 100% confident would make the playoffs, and were sure would be favored in each round, I could see 6:1 odds, but at 4:1 you’re just lighting money on fire.