State's recidivism dips but still high

For the second straight year, California has seen a decline in recidivism among former prison inmates. But compared with other states, California's rate still remains high.

A new report by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation found that the percentage of former inmates who returned to prison in the three years following their releases had declined from 65.1 percent for inmates released in fiscal year 2006-07 to 63.1 percent for inmates released in 2007-08 – even though more inmates were released in 2007-08.

In 2007-08, 113,888 inmates were released from California prisons. In 2006-07, 112,665 were released.

Despite 2007-08's larger numbers, California also saw a decrease in the number of former inmates convicted of new crimes (56,525 in 2007-08 vs. 57,980 in 2006-07) and the percentage of former inmates re-arrested (75.8 percent in 2007-08, 76.6 percent in 2006-07)

The recidivism drop follows a similar one the previous year, when the three-year return-to-prison percentage fell from 67.5 percent in 2005-06 to 65.1 percent in 2006-07.

Lee Seale, director of Internal Oversight and Research for the department, said that while he couldn't “conclusively” link the state's recidivism decline to new strategies employed by the state, he believes California's new approaches are “a big part of it.”

In recent years, the California prison system has started using new tools to assess an inmate's likelihood to reoffend. Among the new tools is a “22-item actuarial risk prediction instrument” developed in partnership with UC Irvine to predict an inmate's potential to commit more crimes.

Combined with an “investment in rehabilitative programs,” Seale said, “We truly are seeing a lowering of offenses.”

Not everyone, of course, is buying that narrative. The Criminal Justice Legal Foundation, a nonprofit “dedicated to restoring a balance between the rights of crime victims and the criminally accused,” recently put out a press release questioning the efficacy of the state's risk-assessment tools. Those tools are also being used in inmate realignment, Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to shift the custody and supervision of certain nonviolent offenders from state prisons to county jails.

Michael Rushford, president of the foundation, says communities in California have seen “double digit” crime increases since realignment began last year, with parolees who were supposedly nonviolent committing violent crimes.

“The state's formula … doesn't work,” Rushford said. Rushford acknowledged that strategies implemented by the state may indeed have reduced recidivism for inmates released in fiscal year 2007-08. But Rushford said he's most concerned that successes achieved with a population released five years ago are being used to justify realignment now.

“We're seeing people are getting hurt statewide. Lots of them,” he said.

It's worth noting that California officials acknowledge that even with a decrease, the state's recidivism rate remains high. Indeed, a September 2012 report by the Council of State Governments Justice Center highlighted five states employing risk-based strategies that saw similar decreases in recidivism over a comparable three-year period, only their initial rates were far below California's.

Ohio, for example, posted a three-year return-to-prison rate of 36.4 percent in calendar year 2006. Its rate dropped to 31.2 percent. Kansas' rate was 34.2 percent in 2006. It fell to 33.7 percent in 2008.

Michigan's rate went from 36.4 percent to 31.5 percent, Oregon's from 28.2 to 27.7, and Mississippi's from 29.4 to 27.7.

Robert Coombs, a spokesman for the justice center, said it's possible that these decreases, along with California's, could be the result of some larger, nationwide trend (say, an aging of the population), but such demographic trends typically are felt much more slowly. And even though the decreases being discussed are only in the single digits, Coombs said, they actually represent significant shifts – in California's case more than 1,400 fewer crimes.

Even a “modest reduction” statistically, Coombs said, can signify an important change. But California officials acknowledge there's still a long way to go.

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