Voting to spite everyone

Dec 09, 2011

Georgy Bovt

Source: Drawing by Niyaz Karim

At the moment, when the opposition in Russia is still a bunch of disparate groups, the authorities could diffuse the growing political unrest by engaging the discontented parts of society in dialogue and showing them that their opinions matter.

The
outcome of the recent State Duma elections has disappointed the part of society
called “Internet Russia,” as distinguished from the part called “Television
Russia.” Many progressive-minded, educated and well-informed people felt
insulted by the evidence of vote-rigging reported on the Russian Internet even
on voting day, Dec. 4. The authorities dismissed these reports as false and
explained that the videos showing people stuffing ballot boxes were contrived,
shot at fake polling stations or even rented apartments, hardly the most
brilliant propaganda ploy under the circumstances. The information, including
that coming from observers at the elections, obviously calls for a somewhat
different reaction and at least a show of public flogging of the culprits and a
show investigation into what happened.

Particularly
outrageous were the cases of electoral fraud in Moscow and St. Petersburg,
where, unlike in many other regions, the gap between the exit poll results and
the final returns was about 15 percent. The difference went to United Russia.

Yet the
protests against such elections were a) totally unorganized, and b) not joined
by the three opposition parties that got into parliament, though initially they
also complained about electoral fraud. During the first two days of spontaneous
protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg, several hundred people were detained and
the leaders of the riots, such as hardline opposition activist Ilya Yashin and
famous anti-corruption blogger Alexey Navalny, were sentenced to 15 days
detention.

What
are the chances of the discontent spreading? This time around, they seem to be
minimal. And the reason is not only that it is winter in Russia and few people
would be keen to go to rallies unless a life-or-death issue were at stake. So
far, we are looking at a growing-but-not-yet-articulated irritation with the
behavior of those among the ruling elite associated with the United Russia
party.

The
party made several gross miscalculations in its election campaign and failed to
structure it in such a way as to react to the more acute issues that inevitably
arise in any country in times of economic difficulty. Nor did it declare
forcefully enough its commitment to fight corruption, which is the most common
accusation leveled at the ruling bureaucracy. And finally, some of the more
glaring irregularities that occurred in the final stages of campaigning could
have been avoided. If it had run a more effective campaign, United Russia could
have won a majority of votes anyway, a majority that would have meant “an
outright victory” by European standards. All the more so since the opposition
failed to come up with any catchy slogans or field a single colorful new
personality; their programs were muddled and their representatives in the
debates just went through the motions because they themselves did not believe
they could win. The increased number of votes cast for the opposition parties
is not due to their own merits but to the wish of the voters, fed up with
United Russia, to vote to spite it.

But
revolutions never grow out of protest votes against some other party. Still
less are they likely to be triggered by the actions of a motley crowd of
nationalists, anarchists, students, journalists and just people who like to be
in the spotlight. The anti-establishment opposition has failed to produce any
charismatic leader who would suit a significant number of disenchanted people.
The lack of such a leader works against unity of the representatives of a
society that has long been afflicted by political apathy, while “horizontal”
unity has never been its forte, to put it mildly.

Finally,
there is one more circumstance relating purely to demographics. Russia’s
population is older than, for example, those of the Arab countries who recently
stunned the world with “the Arab Spring.” The average age in Egypt is a little
over 20, whereas that in Russia is close to 40. People at 40 have no appetite
for street riots. Besides, the young generation in Russia today has vastly better
opportunities than their peers in the poor Middle East countries such as Egypt,
Syria or Yemen.

There
is another lesson that the authorities should learn: Sooner rather than later, they
must reach out to the discontented segments of society and engage them in
dialogue. Otherwise, an odd situation will arise in which the young and
educated generation will vote just to
spite United Russia and the Communists, professing their love for Stalin and
his methods of ruling the country, will benefit. If they had their way, “the
Internet Russia” would disappear. To say nothing of any contested elections.