Reached on Monday, Pupatello seemed unfazed. “All of those names were out there before I announced,” she said. “None of that’s new to me.”

Along with Pupatello, Kennedy, Hoskins and Sousa, the Ontario Liberal leadership race includes former cabinet ministers Kathleen Wynne and Glen Murray — bringing the total field of competitors to six.

Although Pupatello has long been thought a top contender for the job, the contest may have become tighter than previously assumed.

Earlier this month, Toronto-based polling firm Forum Research Inc. released the results of a public opinion survey showing the Ontario Liberal Party would have its best results (22 per cent of the popular vote) under Kennedy’s helm.

Under Pupatello, the figures were less favourable — only 15 per cent of the popular vote and 20 seats in the legislature.

But Pupatello dismissed the poll as speculative. “The Toronto Star also did some poll. I don’t know where I was in the pack,” she said.

“You know what? I’m not a Toronto MPP. I understand that. I’m good with that. What I hope will be the strength of my campaign is a regionality that no other candidate will be able to match…. I want broad support from every region in Ontario.”

Asked her thoughts on how the contestants size up, Pupatello said her focus remains the economy. “It’s the only thing that regular folk want to talk to me about. I know politicians want to talk about gamesmanship. I want to talk about jobs.”

But the survey results show the Ontario PC Party as being on track for a majority government if there were to be a general election — with more than a third (37 per cent) of the popular vote and at least 58 seats at Queen’s Park.

Below: The results of Forum Research Inc.’s latest survey on Ontario politics

Meanwhile, the provincial Tories have cranked up their media machine, releasing a statement criticizing Kennedy within minutes of his announcement, and putting videos on YouTube attacking Wynne and Sousa.

“Another Liberal Ontario can’t afford,” accuse the Tory ads.

Last week, the Tories released a YouTube video slamming Pupatello in similar fashion. The commercial has since been pulled after CBC complained that the ad used its copyrighted news footage.

“It’s the same old nasty politics by the Tories,” Pupatello said Monday. “That’s the best they can muster? Really? I come from Windsor. I can take a lot more than that.”

University of Windsor political science Prof. Cheryl Collier also wondered at the Ontario PC party’s apparent eagerness to go negative.

“Doing it early shows that they are concerned,” Collier said. “They know they have to quell any kind of positive momentum that a leadership candidate will naturally get.”

But Collier agreed that Pupatello’s competition for the Ontario Liberal top spot has deepened — especially with Kennedy’s entry.

“He brings a lot of things to the table. He’s a good campaigner. He’ll probably give Sandra Pupatello her biggest challenge right now.”

Along with Kennedy’s “high profile image in the party,” Collier cited the appeal of the former MP’s centrist poltical tendencies — as opposed to Pupatello’s more right-of-centre business-oriented perspective within the party, in Collier’s opinion.

“The field right now seems to be centre, centre-left — other than Sandra Pupatello,” Collier said.

Collier said that even Pupatello’s year in the private sector — spent with financial consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers Canada — is a signal of Pupatello’s economic position. “She’s being very careful,” Collier said.

The questions being asked are all political. The pollsters want to know what you think about the City of Windsor’s spending priorities, the mayor, who might make a better mayor – and fire fighting.

In fact, of the 33 questions on the poll eight specifically mention firefighters. Do taxpayers think firefighters are “paid too much?” Are there are “too many firefighters?” Should they get paid “the same as firefighters in other communities?”

And most importantly, should firefighters get their arbitration settlements in one big cheque, and should they get post retirement benefits for life?

The sponsor of the poll, observers believe, has to be either someone getting ready to run for mayor, someone planning to run again, or a certain municipal union anxious to find a candidate strong enough defeat their evil tax-freezing nemesis, Mayor Eddie Francis.

The pollster’s live operators ask Windsor taxpayers to rate the importance of “services” in general and fire fighting in particular against “lowering property taxes,” and “keeping taxes down,” and “keeping city taxes down.”

According to a rough transcript of the poll questions I saw, taxpayers are also asked to give thumbs up or thumbs down to the downtown aquatics centre and contracting out city garbage pickup – two of Francis’ key accomplishments.

Francis says it’s not him who commissioned the poll, which several people have told him about. “I’m busy doing my job. Other people are worried about what’s two years from now.”

From the first time I heard of the poll a few weeks ago, my money was on the third choice as the likely patrons of the poll: the Windsor Professional Fire Fighters Association. They can afford expensive polling – a 20-minute live poll of over 1,000 people would cost $15,000 to $20,000 or more – and they have not been shy about using their cash to fight, campaign and otherwise intimidate anyone who tries to get between them and their next contract.

Their president Ed Dickson didn’t return a call from me Monday.

Coun. Al Maghnieh Tweeted a suggestion last week that the poll may have been commissioned by “someone getting nervous.” Now who could that be?

The “nervous” individual could be Bill Marra, Jo-Anne Gignac or Sandra Pupatello, all of whom the pollsters ask taxpayers to compare with Francis as potential candidates.

Pupatello has been floated as potential mayoral material by members of the local Liberal machine from the second she announced she would not run in the last provincial election.

Gignac has been asked by many supporters to consider running for mayor, but hasn’t said yes yet. She’s said she won’t run against Francis, ever, but may consider running when and if he leaves office.

Marra has been running forever, except for last time when he wisely let former Liberal MP Rick Limoges stand as the union-sponsored cannon fodder against the incumbent mayor.

“It’s not me,” Marra told me Monday. I believe that, even though he’s been acting like a candidate again during recent council meetings: Making grand statements, issuing stern warnings, etc. etc.

Politically, Marra is on the centre-left side of Windsor City Council. A civil servant most of his life, he’s friendly with all of the city’s unions, from CUPE to the firefighters and the Windsor Police Association.

It is entirely conceivable that the firefighters are polling to see how Marra and Pupatello would stack up against either Francis or Gignac.

“I think there are nervous people out there who think (Francis) is thinking about running for a fourth term,” Maghnieh told me Monday. “You can think of five or six groups of people who would be nervous about that.”

OK: Fire, cops, CUPE, the CAW, the NDP …

Marra thinks it’s way too early to be polling. “The information won’t even be relevant by the time the election comes around.”

Whoever is behind the poll, the plan is obviously to make the next city election a war between those who want strong services – that is, big government and big spending – against those who favour Francis’ Tea Party-style fondness for smaller government, contracting out and no tax increases.

I didn’t waste my breath asking Francis if he’s running again. He won’t answer that question until the last second in 2014, leaving would-be challengers guessing right up until the nominations close.

But we already know what the other side will be running against: The Francis record of controlling costs at City Hall. There is only one group really opposed to that, and they work there.

]]>http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/pollsters-quiz-windsor-taxpayers/feed0An exterior view of Windsor's City Hall. (Scott Webster / The Windsor Star)winstarvanderdoelenAdvance Voting Rises Modestlyhttp://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/advance-voting-rises-modestly
http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/advance-voting-rises-modestly#commentsMon, 03 Oct 2011 19:27:25 +0000http://blogs.windsorstar.com/?p=8381]]>Ontario voters had a host of new ways to vote early for Thursday’s provincial election, but the number of people who decided to do so rose by only 50 per cent.

That’s going to disappoint Elections Ontario, which is on a mission to pull the turnout up to prevent votes from teetering into illegitimacy. Some ridings, including both in Windsor, have turnouts in the low 40 per cent range.

Only 10 of Ontario’s 108 ridings had turnouts of less than 45 per cent, and Windsor West had 41 with Windsor-Tecumseh only slightly better at 44 per cent. Essex was marginally better at 48.7 per cent, but still well below levels considered demonstrative of a healthy democracy.(You can look up all the riding-by-riding turnouts here).

That’s not only a sad reflection on the lack of knowledge and dis-engagement of the voters in those ridings, its a threat to democracy. Ultra low turnouts mean people are turning their backs on politics. The people in power are weakened when as few as 20 per cent of their eligible constituents vote for them.

The agency announced a few minutes ago that 624,958 people had already voted in this election by Oct. 1, up from 451,949 who voted early last election in 2007. “For a complete breakdown of the electors who cast a ballot during the advance voting period by electoral district, visit wemakevotingeasy.ca,” the agency said by e-mail.

I have to admit missing the opportunity myself. I’d been carrying my voting card around for weeks, but was always too busy to find the time to vote early. In my own defence, I have a 40 km commute, and the advance polls at my local returning office were usually still closed when I went past them before 10 a.m., and closed when I go home.

We had the chance to vote by Special ballot by mail, in person at the local returning office or by home visit — plus 10 days of advance polls.

If I really needed to, I could still vote early by visiting my local returning office. But I think I’ll wait now until Thursday and vote with everyone else. That way I can check to see if the lineups were as bad as they were for the federal election.

]]>http://blogs.windsorstar.com/opinion/mike-grastons-cartoon-for-sept-20-2011/feed0winstargrastonMike Graston's Cartoon For Sept. 20, 2011.Election Polls Rigged: Angry Pollstershttp://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/election-polls-rigged-angry-pollsters
http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/election-polls-rigged-angry-pollsters#commentsSat, 17 Sep 2011 10:30:00 +0000http://blogs.windsorstar.com/?p=7384]]>This is what I warned readers of last week: mid-election polls are not to be trusted. Some of them say whatever the people who commissioned them want them to say. And it leads to “disgusting” media behaviour, as one angry pollster rages.

This week alone, one poll of the Ontario election showed Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals were “gaining” on Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, who had been ahead for most of the past year; another showed the Tories were still ahead; yet another showed both parties “locked” in a “dead heat” (favourite mainstream media terms when their teams are losing badly).

They can’t all be right — and at least one of them is either utterly incompetent or likely an outrageous lie.

A Canadian pollster told me once over post-election drinks that he could create nearly any outcome a buyer wanted in a poll; all the customer had to do was drop a good hint at what they wanted. For this reason mid-election polls are to be taken with a truckload of salt, he said. The rest of the time, just take a kilo of salt with them. They’re spin.

At least some pollsters are finally going public with their concerns about how a once halfway respectable profession (not like journalism!) is being whored-out these days to the highest bidders, and abused by the media.

So, which pollsters are telling the truth, which of their polls are accurate? Remember which way your local media outlets usually lean, politically, and that should tell you something about the poll and why they’re using it.

Seen in that light, all those stories about Michael Ignatieff preparing for a federal Liberal victory last winter make perfect sense.

Political junkies should check out this niffty website that tracks how each party is faring during the election campaign in Ontario.

ThreeHundredEight.com is projecting today a Liberal majority, which will result in 53 seats for the governing party led by Dalton McGuinty, 35 seats for Hudak’s Conservatives and 19 seats for the NDP and leader Andrea Horwath.

The website tracks the political mood and makes projections based on polls, weighted by the age of the poll, the size of the sample and the track record of each pollster. There are other factors used in the calculations, but they are too complicated to get into here.

The website’s track record has been impressive at times, but it missed the mark in May’s federal election. It projected a Conservative minority, with the NDP forming the Official Opposition. It over-estimated the number of seats the Liberals and Bloc would win. Of the 308 ridings in the country, ThreeHundredEight.com correctly called 234 of them, for an accuracy rate of 76 per cent, which the website itself described as “absolutely unacceptable.”