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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004362
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - RMCCALL AND AFR/SA - TPARK AND
CREINTSMA
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 04362 01 OF 03 071408Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/10
TAGS: PGOVEAGRECONZI
SUBJECT: WITH MUGABE IN CRUSADE MODE, THE STATE'S FUTURE
ECONOMIC SURVIVAL DROPS OUT OF THE LAND EQUATION
REF: HARARE 4317
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT MUGABE IS IN CRUSADE MODE,
CAMPAIGNING FOR HIS PARTY'S CAPTURE OF THE PRESIDENCY IN
¶2002. HE HAS MADE CLEAR HIS LEGACY WILL BE THAT OF THE
BLACK ZIMBABWEAN WHO FOUGHT AGAINST THE WORLD TO RETURN
THE LAND TO HIS PEOPLE, REGARDLESS OF THE DAMAGE DONE TO
THE COUNTRY AND THE ECONOMY. WE FULLY EXPECT HIS
GOVERNMENT TO GAZETTE THE COMPULSORY ACQUISITION OF
3,000 FARMS, ALTHOUGH WE QUESTION WHETHER IT COULD
FOLLOW THROUGH ON THE REST OF ITS PROMISES. THE
GOVERNMENT DOES NOT HAVE THE MONEY TO ACQUIRE THAT MANY
FARMS UNDER CURRENT RULES, AND THE INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT
OF PEOPLE AND FOOD INSECURITY RESULTING FROM
RESETTLEMENT IN THE TIME FRAME ENVISIONED WOULD SPELL
DISASTER. THE ENSUING ECOLOGICAL NIGHTMARE, AS THE
DESTITUTE AND UNTRAINED "LAND-STARVED" PEASANTRY
PRACTICE SUBSISTENCE FARMING ON NOW PRODUCTIVE LAND
SLOWLY TURNING IT INTO A MOONSCAPE, WOULD COMPLETE THE
PICTURE. ECONOMICS DO NOT FORM PART OF THE PRESIDENT'S
POLITICAL DISCOURSE, AND INDEED IT IS ONLY THROUGH A
POLITICAL PRISM THAT ONE CAN BEGIN TO UNDERSTAND THE
PRESIDENT'S SEEMINGLY ERRATIC ACTIONS. ON THE SAME DAY
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 04362 01 OF 03 071408Z
HIS FINANCE MINISTER TOUTED THE INTRODUCTION OF MEASURES
TO REVERSE THE SLIDE, MUGABE WAS INSULTING DONORS ON
NATIONAL TELEVISION. THE PRESIDENT ALSO PUBLICLY
CONTRADICTS HIS SENIOR NDEBELE PARTY MEMBERS, A FACT
THAT WILL STRETCH THE FABRIC OF THE ZANU-PF UNITY ACCORD
TO THE LIMIT. IN SPITE OF THE DAMAGE MUGABE HAS
INFLICTED TO THE COUNTRY AND EVEN HIS OWN PARTY, THE
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE HAS BEEN SLOW
OR UNABLE TO FORMULATE A CATCHY POSITION TO COUNTER THE
PRESIDENT'S DOMINANCE ON THE LAND DEBATE. MEANWHILE,
THE JUGGERNAUT ROLLS ON. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) POLITICAL, NOT ECONOMIC, LOGIC PREVAILS ON THE
LAND QUESTION IN ZIMBABWE, AND PRESIDENT MUGABE IS WELL
DOWN THE PATH OF A CRUSADE. HE HAS SERVED NOTICE THAT
HIS BOTTOM LINE IS THAT HE IS DETERMINED TO SECURE HIS
PLACE IN HISTORY AS THE BLACK ZIMBABWEAN WHO BROUGHT
LAND BACK TO HIS PEOPLE AND FOUGHT IMPERIALISM. HE SEES
HIMSELF AS PROUD AND ALONE; THE FIDEL CASTRO OF SOUTHERN
AFRICA.
¶3. (C) MUGABE THINKS THAT THE LAND REFORM PROCESS CAN
BE DE-LINKED FROM THE ECONOMY. WE BELIEVE HE IS GRAVELY
WRONG IN THIS ASSESSMENT. MOREOVER, HIS RHETORIC OF
LATE CONFIRMS THAT LAND IS PART AND PARCEL OF HIS
NEWFOUND NATIONALISM; THAT HE IS FIGHTING THE SECOND WAR
OF LIBERATION. WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT HE SOON WILL
GAZETTE THE 3,000 FARMS HE HAS SAID HIS GOVERNMENT WILL
FORCIBLY ACQUIRE. (NOTE: THE ACCELERATED LAND
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM IS BEING CARRIED OUT BY THE NEWLY-
FORMED "ZIMBABWE NATIONAL LAND ACQUISITION COMMITTEE," A
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 04362 01 OF 03 071408Z
ZANU-PF BODY WITH NO LEGAL AUTHORITY, CHAIRED BY VICE
PRESIDENT MSIKA, AND BYPASSING CABINET AND PARLIAMENT.
END NOTE.) HOWEVER, FOLLOWING THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS
UNION'S SUIT CHALLENGING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE
USE OF PRESIDENTIAL POWERS, WHICH INFURIATED PRESIDENT
MUGABE, WE QUESTION WHETHER HE WILL STOP AT 3,000.
INDEED, MUGABE COULD WELL ORDER SEIZURE OF ALL WHITE-
OWNED COMMERCIAL FARMS OR AN INVASION OF CFU PRESIDENT
TIM HENWOOD'S FARM, OR A RAID ON THE CFU'S HEADQUARTERS
OR OTHER BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS OPPOSING THE
GOVERNMENT'S DICTATORIAL ACTIONS.
¶4. (C) AS WE REPORTED IN REFTEL, THE 3,000 FIGURE DATES
TO 1997 WHEN A LIST OF COMMERCIAL FARMS WHOSE LAND
SURFACE TOTALED FIVE MILLION HECTARES WAS DRAWN UP. IT
WAS ESTIMATED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NEED ROUGHLY USD
THREE BILLION TO ACQUIRE THESE: 80 PERCENT OF THE COST
WOULD BE FOR IMPROVEMENTS AND 20 PERCENT FOR THE LAND
ITSELF. EVEN IF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT WERE TO
STRONG-ARM THE JUDICIARY TO REDUCE THE MARKET VALUE OF
THESE FARMS TO, SAY, USD ONE BILLION, IT STILL WOULD
HAVE TO COME UP WITH USD 250 MILLION (WHICH IT DOES NOT
HAVE) UP FRONT TO COMPENSATE THE CURRENT OWNERS UNDER
PRESENT REGULATIONS.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5314
PAGE 01 HARARE 04362 02 OF 03 071408Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00
EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00
PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W
------------------770207 071408Z /38
O 071402Z AUG 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6779
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004362
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - RMCCALL AND AFR/SA - TPARK AND
CREINTSMA
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 04362 02 OF 03 071408Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/10
TAGS: PGOVEAGRECONZI
SUBJECT: WITH MUGABE IN CRUSADE MODE, THE STATE'S FUTURE
ECONOMIC SURVIVAL DROPS OUT OF THE LAND EQUATION
¶5. (C) THE FIVE MILLION HECTARE FIGURE WAS INTENDED FOR
RESETTLEMENT OF 500,000 LANDLESS FAMILIES. WE POINT OUT
THAT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE DIRECT HIRE WORKFORCE OF
ALL THE COMMERCIAL FARMS TOTALS NEARLY ONE MILLION
(THOUGH MANY MORE, SPOUSES, CHILDREN AND OTHER
DEPENDENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE SUPPORTED BY THE COMMERCIAL
FARM WORKERS). THE 3,000 FARMS COMPRISING THE 5 MILLION
HECTARES CONSTITUTES ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE COMMERCIAL
FARM TOTAL. IF THE FARMS ARE SEIZED ABOUT HALF A
MILLION FARM WORKERS (50 PERCENT OF 1,000,000) WILL FIND
THEMSELVES WITHOUT A JOB OR INCOME, AND BOOTED OUT OF
THEIR QUARTERS. AS CURRENTLY PLANNED, THE RESETTLED
PORTION OF THE POPULACE WILL EQUAL THE NEWLY DISPLACED
AND UNEMPLOYED PORTION, AND THE CURRENTLY PRODUCTIVE
LAND WILL REVERT TO SUBSISTENCE FARMING WITH ALL THE
ATTENDANT DISASTROUS ECOLOGICAL AND RESOURCE-DESTROYING
CONSEQUENCES. IN SIX TO TEN YEARS THE RESETTLED FARMS
COULD LOOK LIKE THE COMMUNAL LANDS ALLOCATED IN THE
1980'S BY GOVERNMENT - WITHOUT FARM INFRASTRUCTURE LIKE
IRRIGATION AND NOW ARID, TREELESS, ERODED AND LACKING
ROADS, ELECTRICITY, SCHOOLS AND SOCIAL SERVICES.
¶6. (C) DURING EARLIER RESETTLEMENT EFFORTS BY THE
GOVERNMENT, IT TOOK 20 YEARS TO MOVE HALF THE CURRENT
TARGET OF 500,000 WITH RESULTANT SERIOUS AGRICULTURAL
EXTENSION AND VIABILITY PROBLEMS. MOST OF THOSE WHO
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 04362 02 OF 03 071408Z
WERE RESETTLED WERE NOT GIVEN TITLE AND ARE ON LAND THAT
IS CURRENTLY IDLE DUE TO DEGRADATION. IT IS IN THE
REALM OF FANTASY TO IMAGINE THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN
GOVERNMENT WILL MANAGE TO RESETTLE 500,000 PEOPLE IN
ANYTHING BUT A STATE-ORCHESTRATED ROUT IN ONE MONTH.
THE INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT OF AT LEAST ONE MILLION PEOPLE
IN THAT TIMEFRAME WOULD SPELL A DISASTER, INCLUDING ANY
HOPE OF MAINTAINING FOOD SECURITY, THAT WOULD ECLIPSE
SUCH ILL-STARRED EXPERIMENTS AS SAMORA MACHEL'S "ALDEIAS
COMUNAIS."
¶7. (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE, HOWEVER, DOES NOT ANALYZE OR
EVEN VIEW THE ISSUE IN THESE TERMS. HIS TECHNICIANS,
OUT OF FEAR, TRY TO RATIONALIZE WHAT IS EVIDENTLY
IRRATIONAL THINKING. THESE INDIVIDUALS ALSO HARBOR THE
ILLUSION THAT NO MATTER WHAT, THE DONORS WILL HAVE TO
COME TO ZIMBABWE'S ASSISTANCE ON THE GOVERNMENT'S OWN
TERMS. HOWEVER, THE PRESIDENT HAS DECIDED THAT THIS
CAUSE WILL HELP HIS PARTY WIN THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS. WHILE FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI WAS IN
PARLIAMENT ON AUGUST 3 INTRODUCING A FRAMEWORK TO TRY TO
RESCUE THE ECONOMY, PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS IN BINDURA
ADDRESSING THE ZIMBABWEAN FARMERS UNION CONFERENCE,
DEFIANTLY INSULTING THE DONORS IN SHONA. SUCH
CONTRADICTIONS MAKE SENSE UNDER POLITICAL LOGIC, AND
CONSEQUENTLY SOME FORWARD THINKING DONORS ARE MAKING
CONTINGENCY PLANS NOT FOR LAND REFORM FINANCE, BUT FOR A
HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY.
¶8. (C) IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH MORE OF THIS
ZANU-PF CAN TAKE. THE PRESIDENT PUBLICLY CONTRADICTS
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 04362 02 OF 03 071408Z
KEY SENIOR GOVERNMENT FIGURES, SUCH AS HOME AFFAIRS
MINISTER JOHN NKOMO. HE PLACES VICE PRESIDENT JOSEPH
MSIKA IN CHARGE OF THE LAND REFORM PROGRAM, BUT TELLS
WAR VETERANS LEADER CHENJERAI HITLER HUNZVI TO IGNORE
THE VICE PRESIDENT. THE RULING PARTY'S RELATIONSHIP
WITH MATEBELELAND IS AT ITS MOST FRAGILE SINCE
INDEPENDENCE, AND KEEPING JOSEPH MSIKA ON THE TEAM IS
THE ONLY WAY TO PROP UP THE UNITY ACCORD THAT FUSED
JOSHUA NKOMO'S ZAPU-PF WITH MUGABE'S ZANU.
¶9. (C) THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE TO
DATE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO THWART THE PRESIDENT'S LAND
CAMPAIGN THAT IS BACKED UP BY THE FULL MACHINERY OF THE
PARTY AND THE GOVERNMENT. INDEED, MUGABE HONED-IN ON
THE OPPOSITION'S WEAKNESS: LACK OF CLARITY IN THE
POPULAR PERCEPTION ON WHERE IT STANDS ON THE LAND.
MOREOVER, THE MDC AND ITS TRADE UNION ALLIES HAVE BEEN
EMBARRASSINGLY CAST AS BEDFELLOWS OF THE WHITE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS. ITS LEADERSHIP HAS BEEN UNABLE TO
SHAKE THE IMAGE OF SELLOUTS TO THE WHITES, A PERCEPTION
THAT MAY BE GAINING CURRENCY. THE ONE-DAY STAYAWAY,
WHICH ZCTU ENDORSED AND ABBREVIATED ON THE EVE OF ITS
TAKING PLACE, WAS NOT A RESOUNDING SUCCESS. ITS
OWNERSHIP WAS UNCLEAR, THERE WAS LITTLE PUBLIC DEBATE
AROUND IT, AND THE CONNECTION BETWEEN ENDS AND MEANS WAS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5318
PAGE 01 HARARE 04362 03 OF 03 071408Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00
EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01
OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00
IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W
------------------770220 071408Z /38
O 071402Z AUG 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6780
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004362
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER
PASS USAID FOR A/AID - RMCCALL AND AFR/SA - TPARK AND
CREINTSMA
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 04362 03 OF 03 071408Z
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/10
TAGS: PGOVEAGRECONZI
SUBJECT: WITH MUGABE IN CRUSADE MODE, THE STATE'S FUTURE
ECONOMIC SURVIVAL DROPS OUT OF THE LAND EQUATION
VAGUE. INDEED, WE UNDERSTAND THAT ZCTU WAS DIVIDED ON
THE STRIKE, NOT BECAUSE ANYONE IN IT IS PRO-MUGABE, BUT
BECAUSE THEY ARE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE LINK TO THE
COMMERCIAL FARMERS.
¶10. (C) THE LAND ACQUISITION ACT, AMENDED BY
PRESIDENTIAL DECREE, WILL BE TABLED IN PARLIAMENT FOR
RATIFICATION. ZANU-PF LIKELY WILL WIN, AS IT ONLY TAKES
A SIMPLE MAJORITY TO DO SO. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT
THE MDC'S POSITION WILL BE AT THAT TIME ON LAND. AT
THIS WRITING, THE ONLY WAY FOR IT TO TURN THE TABLES
WOULD BE TO MOVE MASSIVELY TOWARD THE RURAL AREAS. FOR
THE MOMENT THE MDC APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATING ON ITS
URBAN BASE, COMMUNICATING THROUGH ITS PARTISAN
NEWSPAPER, "THE DAILY NEWS". ALTHOUGH RULE OF LAW IS
THE MDC'S NUMBER ONE ISSUE, IT HAS ABDICATED THE
POLITICAL STRATEGIC INITIATIVE IN THE RURAL AREAS TO
ZANU-PF AND THE WAR VETERANS.
¶11. (C) CONFIRMING OUR PERCEPTION THAT ZANU IS IN
CAMPAIGN MODE IS THE FACT THAT THE JULY 20 ZANU-PF
CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING WAS ABOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION, AND HOW TO GET THINGS RIGHT FOR IT. THE BODY
DISCUSSED THE ECONOMY AND LAND, BUT DID NOT CONDUCT A
POSTMORTEM ON THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. AT THIS
POINT, WE THINK THAT MUGABE HAS NOT COMPLETELY MADE UP
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 04362 03 OF 03 071408Z
HIS MIND AS TO WHETHER HE WILL RUN IN 2002. SOME HERE
THINK THAT IF MUGABE VIEWS HIMSELF AS SUCCESSFUL ON THE
LAND ISSUE, HE WILL BE SATISFIED AND NOT PRESENT HIMSELF
AS A CANDIDATE, AND, LOOK INSTEAD FOR A WAY TO RETIRE
WITH HONOR AND ACCLAMATION. WE WORRY THAT THAT MAY BE
WISHFUL THINKING.
IRVING
CONFIDENTIAL
>