Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Forget the polls and the expert analysis. Just who does the smart money think will win the U.S Presidency in 2016? A look at the odds:

Candidate

Odds

Chance

Hillary Clinton

11 to 15

45.7%

Marco Rubio

4 to 1

15.8%

Donald Trump

7 to 1

9.9%

Bernie Sanders

9 to 1

7.9%

Jeb Bush

13 to 1

5.7%

Ben Carson

20 to 1

3.8%

Ted Cruz

25 to 1

3.0%

Chris Christie

40 to 1

1.9%

John Kasich

50 to 1

1.6%

Carly Fiorina

60 to 1

1.3%

Mike Huckabee

75 to 1

1.0%

Rand Paul

150 to 1

0.5%

Martin O'Malley

175 to 1

0.5%

Bobby Jindal

200 to 1

0.4%

Rick Santorum

225 to 1

0.4%

Lindsey Graham

250 to 1

0.3%

George Pataki

300 to 1

0.3%

Note: I adjusted the percentage chance of winning to add up to 100% - the bookie takes a cut. That puts the overall race at 54% for Democrats and 46% for Republicans, which is pretty close to a 50/50 coin toss.

The way this likely goes is that Ben Carson wins Iowa and Donald Trump wins New Hampshire, then the Republican Party establishment gets down to the gritty and uncertain business of putting through their most viable candidate, who at this point in the race looks to be Marco Rubio.

The worst bet on board? Bernie Sanders - if Hillary Clinton falters, the Democrats will find someone else. The best bet? Ben Carson - he may not ultimately win but I think you'll be able to cover at better odds after Iowa.