The Texans faced 101 third-and-long situations. 23 of them were runs. That rate of 22% is nearly triple the league-average rate. A better way to say that? The Texans called nearly 9% of all third-and-long runs in the entire league last year.

Great numbers here that really show Gary Kubiak’s unwillingness not just to take chances on third downs, but simply to throw. He really needs to self-evaluate in this area.

I’ve been thinking on this subject some. Odd play-calling on 3rd and long is not something that has been a consistent theme of the Texans offense over the years.

So what is up with the 2012 numbers?

3rd and long, versus 3rd and VERY long.

As I noted in a recent post focusing on the Texans offensive scheme, the Texans offense very much focuses on keeping down and distance numbers sane. All teams want to do that, but the Texans pray at the altar of down and distance as they prioritize it. It is one reason why the one-cut running style is essential to the offense, because it usually gets positive yards, rarely gets negative yards. Keeping down and distance on schedule makes for fewer obvious passing downs and keeps defenses off balance.

What is peculiar about last year was how often a team that prioritizes down and distance got into 3rd and extra long, meaning 11 or greater yards.

Here’s a chart I put together with data from the Pro-Football Reference, Game Play Finder (with things I think interesting highlighted). I picked the years 2009-2012 because by that point, Matt Schaub knew the offense. He had big 2009, 2010 seasons because the defense was bad so the offense had to pass a lot. In 2011, 2012, the defense was vastly improved which allowed for increased running because they weren’t always playing from behind:

So for 3rd and less than 3 yards (sane distance), the Texans in 2012 had fine numbers.

But look at that peculiar percentage of 3rd and 11+ yards. That’s a higher number than previous seasons, and a strange number for a team that values not getting into those situations. I’m guessing that reflects a lack of execution. To get into 3rd and 11+ usually means something really bad happened, like a penalty, sack, or other play loss.

In 2012, the Texans had their highest penalties per game totals since Gary Kubiak has been coach. In particular, the road penalties were particularly bad, averaging 7.4 on the road versus 5.7 at home. This is the worst road average for penalties since Kubiak has been coach. (I don’t think a team wants to necessarily get the fewest penalties in the league because that can be a result of lack of aggression, but being 1 to 2 penalties more than traditional averages for Kubiak-coached teams is unusual).

For curiosity’s sake, here’s a comparison to the rest of the league on 3rd and 11+ in 2012 after a Game Play Finder search:

Texans are 4th in number of 11+ 3rd down plays, and 1st in the number of runs in that situation with six more runs than the 2nd most team. Unsurprisingly, they are tied for 31st in converting 3rd and extra long into 1st downs or TDs.

To show how skewed that is, compare those 2012 numbers, to the Texans in both 2009 and 2010 per a Game Play Finder search. Those were years where 1. Matt Schaub played every game. 2. The defense was horrible. 3. The Texans could not afford to punt the ball at all because they likely wouldn’t get the ball back in a while and the other team was almost certain to score:

Over that two year period, the Texans were 30th in the number of 3rd and 11+ plays, somewhat middle of the pack with their 3rd down runs, were 8th at converting these into 1st downs or TDs.

So what caused the change in playcalling?

Perhaps a combination of things?

Risk taking, game situations. Rivers McCown suggests in this article, “And if we apply actual game theory and logic to this — shouldn’t a better defense make you want to take more risks on offense?”

By observation, I think that Gary Kubiak has a mixed view of that. Sometimes against good quarterbacks, it appears as though he will take some additional risks. You saw that some against the Broncos on the road. I’m not sure that they had the personnel and proper execution to do that late in the season to the Patriots on the road.

But against bad to middling quarterbacks, he may not want to take risks because if the opponent’s quarterback isn’t going to beat you, so why let their defense do it?

Taking risks can result in pyrrhic victories. Matt Schaub was a big part of the win over the Broncos, but given the hits he took, he could have been knocked out for the season.

I’m not sure that the Texans staff ever got over how difficult it was to function at the end of 2011 after Matt Schaub was lost to injury, which may have contributed to overly-conservative play calling in 2012. That and he was coming back from a foot injury which saw him riding in a rascal for a while. The performance of T.J. Yates and Case Keenum in the preseason last year couldn’t have provided much confidence.

Personnel and execution. The revolving door at offensive line, injuries at tight end, and the inexperience of wide-receivers 3-5 didn’t make an obvious passing down look particularly appealing if you wanted to keep your quarterback upright. And then there was the unusual decline of Matt Schaub down the stretch, combined with the desire to keep him relatively healthy for playoffs. Ultimately, poor execution is a reason why the Texans got into 3rd and really long so many times.

Playcalling with Improved Defense. I’m not sure that Gary Kubiak has pegged how to call games since he’s had a more-often-than-not improved defense. From 2006-2010, the Texans defense was completely unreliable, and the Texans offense often took risks that at the time looked odd. The most infamous was going for it on 4th and inches against the 2008 Steelers on the road, in the first five minutes of the game at midfield, not getting it, challenging the ruling on the spot, and then losing that.

Apologies for mentioning that eye bleach moment, but that’s about as crazy aggressive of an offensive play call as can exist.

Last year, as the above shows, you couldn’t get any more conservative on 3rd and long.

There has to be something in the middle between feeling like you can never punt during the pre-Wade era and packing in your tent when you get into bad down and distance and then hoping that J.J. Watt can do a J.J. Watt.

Every Texans team is different.

As my last post noted, every Texans team is different, has different strengths, has different challenges. That would seem like a no-duh statement, but sometimes we treat what has happened in the past (for better or worse) as a prediction for the future. And more often than not, the seasons surprise.

My prediction based on no evidence other than what happens every year:

1. The run on 3rd and long thing won’t be a big deal in 2013.

2. That there will be some new irritating thing on offense and defense and special teams because there always is something new. You renovate your kitchen, then you get a roof leak. That is life.

3. I do not know for certain what The Thing(s) is right now. Have ideas. Sometimes you can get a better sense of potential issues as camp progresses. Sometimes they are in-season surprises.

Any other thoughts on 3rd and long, and 3rd and extra-long? I invite you to play around with the PFR Game Play Finder. You never know what sorts of things you can find, surprising and not so much.