Tuesday, October 24, 2006

NBA Preview, Part 1:No, You tell ME

Let's ramp up the 2006-07 NBA Preview!

In a way both to pay homage to my readers and to tap the collective wisdom, I'm flip-flopping my NBA preview. Instead of saying what I think, then letting you all say what you think, I'm going the other way: Use the Comments area to provide insights in any/all of the following categories, then I'll weigh in throughout the rest of the week:

(1) MVP(2) Coach of the Year(3) Team on the Rise(4) Team on the Decline(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award")(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best")(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January(8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?)(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?)(10) NBA Champs

Please use the number/category to help everyone else understand your comments. And a little reasoning/"why" never hurts. Looking forward to hearing what you have to say.

59 comments:

(6)/(7)I'm curious to see how deep Telfair is in the Fabolous situation, and will that open up an opportunity for Rajon Rondo as a rookie PG for the Celtics. Especially once Ainge fires Glennie. (A precursor to Ainge getting fired himself, but that'll be another year or two away.)

Charlotte Bobcats. Yeah, I'm a homer. But through the first two years of salary cap restrictions, the team played tough. Lost a lot of close games rather than rolling over. They've added a pure scorer (one thing they've missed) with Morrison. While I'm not predicting a division title, I expect them to compete for the 8th spot this year.

(1) MVP - Lebron James(2) Coach of the Year - Brian Hill(3) Team on the Rise - Orlando Magic(4) Team on the Decline - New Jersey Nets(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - Shaun Livingston(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best") - Rodney Carney (for the dunks alongside Iguodala)(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - The "I thought it went away but now it's back" storyline of the western conference being decidedly better than the East.(8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) Dallas over Phoenix in the WCF(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) Detroit over Chicago(10) NBA Champs Marky Mark and Mavericks

(1) MVP - Lebron (he's hyped enough)(2) Coach of the Year - Isiah (Either the team starts winning or they fire him and improve by default. The franchise CAN'T lose)(3) Team on the Rise - Orlando/Toronto(4) Team on the Decline - Detroit(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - Jarrett Jack (Remember that he was the other point guard in the Chris Paul/Raymond Felton/Deron Williams trio. Finally being handing the keys.)(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best") - Redick (Time for everyone to see him be the biggest bust in the last decade)(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January (Who's the next Knicks coach)(10) NBA Champs - Phoenix

(1) MVP - Dirk. Takes the leap while LeBron and Kobe fall back.(2) Coach of the Year- Scott Skiles- most improved team (both natural growth and via FA a la Wallace)(3) Team on the Rise- Bulls (same reasons)(4) Team on the Decline- Spurs- getting older and not better.(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award")- I'll go with Dan's new fad- Nazr Mohammed(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best")- Rondo- call me a homer, but the kid is sneaky fast and a gifted passer which the Celts need.(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January- Telfair was the shooter.(8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) #1 Mavs over #4 Suns Dirk/Johnson player/coach tandem best in league.(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) #2 Bulls over #1 Pistons. You just gotta have this happen!(10) NBA Champs Mavs over Bulls- playoff experience from last year is the difference.

(1) MVP - Lebron (2) Coach of the Year - Phil Jackson(3) Team on the Rise - The Bucks - some nice talent there. They'll be tough, unless people keep getting hurt.(4) Team on the Decline - The Bulls - not sure about Big Ben anymore.(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - Gerald Wallace or Mike Dunleavy Jr. I think both of these guys will have good years.(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best") - Rudy Gay. He's gonna be a stud. A lot of haters for this guy (for some reason), but he's gonna score in bunches.(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - How terrible the Knicks are and probably something crazy Kobe did (good or bad)(8) Western Playoff Seeding1. Spurs2. Suns3. Mavs4. Clippers5. Lakers6. Rockets7. Kings8. Griz(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding:1. Pistons2. Cavs3. Heat4. Wiz5. Nets6. Bucks7. Bulls8. Pacers(10) NBA Champs:Suns over Cavs

1.) Lebron-Seriously, the Cavs suck. If he goes down, we're missing the playoffs.2.) 3.) Magic-I'm a firm believer that Reddick will make a big difference.4.) Pistons5.) 6.) Shannon Brown- The Cavs need him to step up because our guards suck7.) Probably the Lakers because we always do8.) Mavs win the confrence in regular season, Spurs go to Finals9.) Heat take regular season. Cavs beat heat for the Finals (HOMER!)10.) Mavs (just like they should have been last year if the refs hadn't given Wade every call).

(1) MVP - Lebron(2) Coach of the Year - Avery Johnson(3) Team on the Rise - Chicago(4) Team on the Decline - Miami(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - Marvin Williams (6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best")TIE - RODNEY CARNEY - will set the record for most dunks to appear in SC's Top TenTIE- ROLANDO BLACKMAN - got to see what Isiah's boy can do(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - Lebron carring the Cavs to best record in the East(8) Western Playoff Conf. Champs Dallas over Phoenix (9) Eastern Playoff Conf. Champs Chicago over Cleveland (10) NBA Champs - DALLAS

(1) MVP - Chris Paul(2) Coach of the Year - Don Nelson(3) Team on the Rise - Chicago(4) Team on the Decline - Phoenix(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - Tyson Chandler(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best") - Brandon Roy(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - The Warriors making a run in the west.(8) Western Playoff Conf. ChampsDallas over New Orleans(9) Eastern Playoff Conf. Champs Chicago over Nets (10) NBA Champs - Chicago

1- Kobe, best player in the NBA2- Scott Skiles, but Big Ben's offense inability shines 3- The Magic on the rise...Dwight Howard is a man-beast4- The T-Wolves on the fall...sad to see Garnett without a team and too much weight to bare.5- Charlie Bell.....best defending gaurd in the east6- Shannon Brown....this rookie can jump out of the gym7- Isiah, Isiah, Isiah8, 9 -who cares10- pistons beat mavs

1. MVP: Lebron James (If his team didnt have him they would sink to last)2. Coach of the year: Nate Mcmillan (I expect him to get the young players to buy into him and get this team around 500.)3. Team on the rise: Portland Trail Blazers (They are set at center with two NBA quality startes in Magloire and Przybilla and decent tandem of jack and Roy and Randolph who can score)4. Team on the Decline: Sacremento Kings (New coach already arrested will lead to either turmoil in season or a last second replacement, lack of a respectable coach will derail this team in combo with an Artest antics)5. Breakout Player: Channing Frye (If Stephon Marbury learns that sharing is caring he should have a huge year)6. Rookie to Watch: Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldrige ( Will these two show that Portland is heading in the right direction or another mistake in a long line of them)7. Story Line we will talking about in Janurary (NBA switches to old leather ball after season of low percentage shooting)8. WEST: Pheonix (To much talent not too) 9. EAST: Bulls(has the point guard and inside game to go far)10. Pheonix (Will go 6 but led by Steve Nash he will incoperate everyone to finally win it)

(1) Tim Duncan - he will make this team as good as he can.(2) Scott Skiles - This team should win the East. They are the youngest and most athletic team here.(3) Bulls - Made this their make or break year.(4) Cavs - had an above average year last year and made NO improvements. No LeBron will not make this team that much better this year.(5) Breakout Player - Livingston(6) Rookie to Watch - Reddick(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - Cavs mediocre play so far and the jump in athletism in the East.(8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs - Spurs over Mavs(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs - Bulls over Heat(10) NBA Champs Spurs over Bulls

Teams on the decline: The Spurs, Pistons and Heat should all be worse this year. Seriously. The trend in the NBA is streakiness--the same half-dozen franchises seem to dominate for long stretches. But I think we're due this year for one of those rare shake-ups, when the order of things changes.

The other thing I think:

To quote William Goldman out of context, "nobody knows anything." Picking winners this early is entertaining, but impossible without better data. The preseason simply means nothing. Some offseason acquisitions were of players that still have good years in them, and some weren't. Some rookies will matter, and some will be Darko. But on each of those, no one knows which is which.

Usually I ignore the NBA until there isn't enough football left to give me my sports fix. Part of the reason is that by then, you know how things are shaking out. So, um, see you in February, NBA.

(6) Redick - To prove all you Duke hating DB's wrong once and for all. He will break every 3 point record ever set in the NBA and make everyone start thinking "imagine if Larry Legend was as good as this JJ kid..."

As for you Richard, how can you call him the "biggest bust"? He was drafted 13th overall and with almost no hype. He's going to a team already poised for a breakout season (lets not forget the Magic had one of the best 3 records in the NBA last year after the all-star break) and his contributions during his rookie year will be rather minimal. You want a bust, I'll give you one of those - Diabetes Morrison.

1)MVP: Gilbert Arenas. Always a chip on his shoulder only he got the summer off and now wants to prove he's better than wade and king james.2)Coach: Eddie J Wiz. Takes the team to a 3rd seed. 3)Team on the rise: Bucks. Getting Charlie V along side with the big guys will pay off.4)Decline: Nets. Kidds age shows.5)The Diaw: Darko. Acutally getting some PT proves he wasnt a total bust.6)Rookie: Williams from the Hawks.7)The hack a Ben Wallace thats over taken the NBA while he shoots under 45%8)Suns over Dallas9)Heat over Cavs10Suns in 5

Yeah I know, very obvious. the top few will remain the same, but the lower seeds will see a shakeup of upcoming teams. Look for some of the top teams to develop in the east: Orlando, Bulls, Cavs, and have staying power over the next few years.

First, I preface everything by saying I'm from Utah and the Jazz are my only pro team. So there's that.

1) Should be Wade. Will be Bron Bron.

2) Jerry Sloan, because he's finally going to realize that you can actually PLAY young players. More a "lifetime achievement" award than anything. Bah, who the hell am I kidding. I could see Brian Hill or Byron Scott here.

3) Toss-up between Magic, Hornets, and possibly Celtics. The Hornets have the most talent, but play in the West... let's say Magic for now.

4) Pistons. They just don't put the fear of God in me like they used to. They'll miss Big Ben more than they realize. (Although I always liked Nazr Mohammed -- the Jazz actually drafted him, then traded him away like idiots.)

5) Prepare for homerism: Deron Williams. He knows this is his team now and will assert himself the way he did at the end of last year. He had a great summer and is playing really well in preseason. He'll never be Chris Paul (why oh why oh God why did we not take Chris Paul?) but he's due for bigger things. Non-homerist choice: Darko.

6) More homerism: Paul Millsap. The steal of the second round. Sloan is already talking about heavy rotation time for him, and he is NOT impressed easily by rookies. Not Rookie of the Year by any means, but we're talking 10 and 5 every night, at least. Non-homerist choice: Rondo, Morrison.

7) The inevitable Artest breakdown, the new ball fiasco, LeBron, whatever team du jour happens to make a breakthrough this year.

8) If Amare is fully back, this is the Suns' year. If not, the Mavs will beat them in the conference finals. And barring injuries (please, basketball gods, no injuries), my Jazz win the Northwest. And get summarily thrashed by whoever they play in round 1.

9) Can the Heat coast through the regular season and turn it on in the playoffs again? I think so -- they're still my team to beat. Unless Bron learns to play better defense and the other Cavs not named Varejao actually make an effort.

1). Lebron2). Who Cares3). the Cavs (do they count as they've risen quite a bit in the past two years...?)4). Detroit Pistons5). don't know enough to give a realistic guess...though it will have to be a player from a team who is on the rise...perhaps from the Magic? 6). Rondo. His preseason has earned him as much, though I'm sure Kentucky fans are skeptical7). All things Dwight Howard8). Spurs over (aaah!) Suns (though I wanted to put the Lakers here...)9). Heat over Cavs10). Spurs (yawn)

I'm only a budding NBA fan, to be fair, but sports as a whole (not just my normal NFL craze) have been growing on me, so I may know a little more about what I'm talking about come April...

6) Rookie: The only Jew in the NBA. Anyone who plays PG to Kobe is guaranteed 10 assists and a fair amount of points.

7) January Storyline: Isaiah Thomas fired after starting 14-27. Stan van Gundy returns to where his brother failed and turns the team around.

8) Western Conf: Spurs over the Suns for both the number 1 seed and the championship berth.

9) Eastern Conf: Miami gets the number 1 seed, but DWade can't do it by himself as Lebron and Hughes combine for 75 a game in the playoffs and propel the Cavs to the Finals.

10) NBA Champs: Z knocks Bowen out in game 1 and Bron and Hughes continue their domination and win the series in 5. David Stern nearly wets himself as he presents the trophy to the league's most popular player.

(1) MVP: LeBron James (Cleveland) - The kid has gotten better each season of his career. Some may forget that the statistics (points, rebounds, assists) he puts up as averages are shared in company with only Bird, Jordan, West and Big O. He certainly has some aspects of his game that he needs to improve (free throw shooting, weak-side D, 3 pt. %) but he seems to be a workhorse that only strives to improve.

(2) Coach of the Year: Mike D'Antoni (Phoenix) - 54 wins last year with Stat not playing the whole season. Even if he isn't 100%, the team is going to see a great deal of improvement (perhaps shades of the 62 win season from the year before where D'Antoni won coach of the year that year?) They have the two-time defending MVP running the show and a solid supporting cast. Look for D'Antoni to reclaim the title.

(3) Team on the Rise: Orlando Magic - Realize this, the Magic won 36 games last year and came within 4 games of the playoffs. Fast forward to the current stage and there is a team with a young Dwight Howard and Darko along with key young role players such as Jameer Nelson, Arroyo, Redick,et. al. This will be an exciting team to watch and I see them definitely claiming a playoff spot.

(4) Team on the Decline: Detroit Pistons - We saw the team nearly collapse against the Cavaliers in the playoffs. Then we saw the team completely collapse against the Heat. Peoplemight say Nazr Mohammed will be a solid replacement for Ben Wallace, I'm not buying it. Wallace was the glue that held the team together, he was the emotional leader. There are still four solid starters on the team and a bevy of decent bench players, but to take away the force from below the basket and call this team the same team, it just isn't true.

(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award"): Darko Milicic (Orlando Magic) - He plays behind Tony Battie, that will change by the 15th game of the season if not sooner. So many people labeled Darko a bust when they saw LeBron, Wade, Melo and Bosh flourish as not just stars, but in some cases superstars. Darko is the real deal and I can't wait to see what he looks like as a full-time starter getting the minutes he needs to boost his confidence and his game.

(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best"): Brandon Roy (Portland Trail Blazers) - This kid will see some serious starting time from the get go. Will he turn the Blazers image problem around? Will he change the team from a league doormat into a true contender (probably not in year 1, but you have to believe there is no way but up for this franchise).

(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January: Without trying to follow-along in a common theme, after the new year it will be time to determine where Isiah Thomas stands. Dolan said he would give Thomas till the end of the season; if there is not a dramatic improvement (and it's hard not to improve from the cellar) I see Thomas getting canned and replaced by LennyWilkens.

(3) Team on the Rise: Bobcats. Young talent, low expectations. They'll sneak up on people.(4) Team on the Decline: Bulls. Ben Wallace is overrated and over the hill, and the rest of the Bulls have never come close to their potential. The parallels are striking to the 2006 Miami Dolphins.(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award"): Darko Milicic. He has the talent, and now he has the minutes. And Dwight Howard at his side.(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January: Disappointment in Chicago.(7a): Storyline We WON'T Be Talking About in January: Who Rajon Rondo is and why everyone was so excited about him 3 months before.

(3) Team on the Rise - Orlando. If instead of the playoffs last year you had started a new 82 game season, right then, the Magic would have ended up at least the 3 seed. Not sure if it's possible to carry that kind of momentum over the entire off-season, but they should be at least a playoff team, probably 4-5 seed.

(7) Straight from January: "How the hell are the Heat winning their division?! All the old guys are self-destructing, yet Wade is single-handedly MJ-ing them to the playoffs. Also, will Shaq be back from his injury in time to play himself back into shape for the playoffs? If so, will the Heat even want to start him at this point? Has a player ever gone from dominant to broken-down-on-the-side-of-the-highway so fast?"

(1) Gilbert Arenas - Maybe I have been listening to you too much, but I think that he leads the League in scoring and carries the Wizards a la D Wade last year. ( only he has better help this year)(3) Orlando Magic - In the East they can easily get to the playoffs this year. I also think that Dwight Howard is going to tear through everyone this year.(4) The Nets - I just think that the East will catch and past them and that Kidd's durabilty and Carter's attitute will both kind of give out this year. (5) Dwight Howard - I know that he kind of had a break-out season last year, but I think that he becomes unstoppable this year. (like Amare Stoudamire before his injury)(6) Adam Morrison - He should get plenty of shots on this team and have a couple inside scorers to let him get open.(7) What the Sonics new name should be in Oklohama City.(8) Spurs over the Clippers (9) Wizards over the Heat(10) Spurs (I hate to pick them, they are like the Yankees of the NBA. Always picked to win it all.)

(1) MVP - Kobe Bryant(2) Coach of the Year - Doc Rivers(3) Team on the Rise - Celtics all those young players and Paul Pierce make for an interesting season(4) Team on the Decline - Miami - one and done for this ageing bunch(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - not sure(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best") - Rajon Rondo - he been the surprise of the exhibition season(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - What happen to the Heat(8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) - Dallas over The Lakers(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) Detriot over Boston(10) NBA Champs - Dallas finishes what they tried to do last year.

1 - MVP - LBJ - He is too hyped not to win it eventually (not to mention that he is pretty good). Although D-Wade wouldn't surprise me.2 - Coach of the year - Skiles or Dunleavy - If the Bulls can make a run to a high seed I think Skiles will get it. If not, look for Dunleavy.3 - Improved Team - Chicago - They already gave the Heat more trouble than any of the other teams in the playoffs last year. Look at what they've added since.4 - Team on decline - Heat - Shaq is still Shaq (a beast). But he is getting older (and more distracted - see the his involvement in the failed bust) and will miss more games this year. Plus he's proved he can win without Kobe now. D-Wade is a good player, but Shaq opens things up for him and he won't be as good in games Shaq is out. Lastly, Riley is an overrated coach. He was able to win last year because everything he did was relatively new to the team - they didn't have to put up with him for the whole year. We'll see what happens this year5 - Breakout - Luol Deng - or has he already broken out? Look for big things from him.6 - Rookie - Everyone is giving this to Rondo, but he can't shoot. He was decent in College - but there is a reason 20 players were picked ahead of him in the draft. I Like either Brandon Roy or Bargnani. Bargnani seems like a cop out since he was the #1 pick - but he's been playing professional ball already. Roy is the most NBA ready of the college players drafted.7 - Storyline - Seattle Sonics or Oklahoma City Sonics?8 - West Playoffs - Dallas (1) over Houston (8)Clippers (2) over Lakers (7)Phoenix (3) over Minnesota (6)San Antonio (4) over Denver (5)Dallas over San AntonioPhoenix over ClippersDallas over Phoenix9 - East Playoffs - Detroit (1) over Philly (8)Miami (2) over Washington (7)Chicago (3) over Indianapolis (6)Cleveland (4) over New Jersey (5)Detroit over ClevelandChicago over MiamiDetroit over Chicago (in 7 games)10 - Finals - Dallas over Detroit (Dirk is the finals MVP).

(1) MVP - Tim Duncan probably will be the right choice, but LeBron will get it.(2) Coach of the Year - D'Antoni(3) Team on the Rise - Orlando, although Boston will put together enough of a run that it could have qualified most years(4) Team on the Decline - Nets, Pacers, Kings, Pistons.(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award") - Gerald Wallace, although he's always been good, so I'm not sure that that counts. How about Devin Harris?(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best") - Randy Foye and Brandon Roye.(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January - Shaq's slow start, idiots talking about steroids even though they'd make NBA players *worse* in anything but the immediate short term perhaps, Kobe's health, Jordan's invisibility. (8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) San Antonio over Dallas.(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?) Cleveland over Miami.(10) NBA Champs: San Antonio

(1) MVP: Allen Iverson, Why? Because no one will see it coming. He will average 25 points 9 assists and 3 steals a game leading Philly into the 5 seed, which the will Detroit and then get swept in the next series by Miami because they have no one to muscle up with Shaq and Alzono.(2) Coach of the Year: Scott Skiles, I think with the addition of Ben Wallace, more of an attitude adjustment and presence will mean more than anything he will do on the court.(3) Team on the Rise: Orlando Magic; Jameer, Darko, Howard, Hill (maybe)..just seem like a young and energetic group of players.(4) Team on the Decline: Minnesota Timberwolves; They have done nothing to help arguably one of the best NBA players win. I feel so bad for KG anymore. This season is going to be bad. I hope he makes it out alive and gets to a contender soon. Him and Allen Iverson need to team up.(5) Breakout Player (The "Diaw Award"): Shavlik Randolph, F Philadelphia; I think he is really going to become a very solid player especially when the sixers wise up and get rid of that bum Dalembert (and hopefully Billy King)(6) Rookie to Watch (not necessarily "best"): Thabo Sefolosha, G Chicago; Under everybody’s radar and with the addition of Ben Wallace no one is talking about him, he is going to surprise everyone.(7) Storyline We'll Be Talking About in January: George Karl and How him and Carmelo are not getting along. This team will be self destructing about then, if not I choose the Kobe drama and how he cant win with out the Big Guy. Or how the Sonics will be in Oklahoma in 2008. or how Knicks still stink and Isaiah is out of Basketball and retires to be a Monk. (8) Western Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?): Chicago over Cleveland for East in 7 games(9) Eastern Playoff Seeding/Conf. Champs (Who over who?): Phoenix over Houston for West in a sweep(10) NBA Champs: Chicago over Phoenix for title in 6

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.