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2018 Program

Chair’s Reception

Platinum

Gold

Tuesday, May 29

5:30PM – 7:00PM

CHAIR'S RECEPTION: THE FORKS MARKET

An exclusive networking opportunity for all Forum registered delegates. Winnipeg’s number one tourist destination that attracts more than four million visitors annually. In the heart of downtown Winnipeg, at the junction of the Assiniboine and mighty Red rivers lays The Forks; a meeting place for over 6,000 years. From early Aboriginal peoples trading, to Métis buffalo hunters and Scottish settlers, to railway pioneers and tens of thousands of immigrants, The Forks is a meeting place that boasts a remarkable past, present and future in serving to shape Canadian culture.

Wednesday, May 30

7:15 AM

REGISTRATION & LIGHT BREAKFAST

8:00 AM

WELCOME & OPENING COMMENTS

Sandy Shindleman

Forum Chair:
Sandy Shindleman, President & CEO, Shindico

8:10 AM

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINNIPEG MARKET

Doug Porter

Within the Canadian context, Winnipeg has had one of the best economic performances of any large city (population over 500,000) in Canada since the global downturn in 2009. It has maintained a generally stable economy. This presentation will examine the outlook of this unique market and why Winnipeg continues to enjoy a relatively low unemployment rate of 5.7%. The city’s GDP has performed above the national average over the past eight years as manufacturing has shown signs of additional strength in this market. What are Winnipeg’s other major economic drivers? How do the prospects compare with the outlook for other large Canadian cities?

8:40 AM

HOW ARE WINNIPEG LEASING AND INVESTMENT MARKETS PERFORMING?

Don White

An overview of leasing and investment activity in Winnipeg over 2017 and the first Quarter of 2018. What were the benchmark leasing and investment deals during the past twelve months? What is the outlook for the remainder of 2018 and beyond in the office, retail, industrial and multi-unit residential sectors in terms of absorption rates, cap rates and leasing and investment activity? How do the prospective trends for Winnipeg compare with other major Canadian markets?

9:05 AM

WINNIPEG’S COMPETITIVE EDGE: WHAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THIS MARKET WITH VERY SUSTAINABLE GROWTH?

Dayna Spiring

Two essential elements found in many successful cities are a diversified range of strong economic drivers coupled with a vibrant population and culture that inspires and attracts an intellectual market of residents. How does Winnipeg fare in this regard? What competitive advantage does it offer? The city has a highly educated and productive workforce, low cost energy, a central location with excellent multi-model transportation system for distribution of goods to market, and a diversified manufacturing base that includes agri-business, financial services, aerospace and other industries. Winnipeg offers one of the lowest overall business costs of any major Canadian centre. What are some of the major drivers responsible for this market’s relatively stable economy?

Dayna Spiring, President & CEO, Economic Development Winnipeg

9:30 AM

INSIGHTS INTO THE GROWTH OF RURAL MUNICIPALITIES SURROUNDING WINNIPEG

Over the past ten years, the Winnipeg real estate market has been experiencing generally modest but steady growth. Some of the resulting trends include increases in the price of land as supply constraints are maintained particularly for industrial uses, development activity in all four principal property classes, and a need for additional infrastructure to support the growth. Beneficiaries of this pressure for growth have included rural municipalities surrounding Winnipeg. Leaders of some of these communities will examine these trends along with the development planning and approval process in their respective municipalities. What are the key policies that the RMs are using to manage growth?

10:20 AM

MORNING REFRESHMENTS

10:50 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select A1, A2 or A3)

SESSION A1:THE WINNIPEG OFFICE MARKET: IS THERE TOO MUCH SUPPLY? WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP AGING ASSETS REMAIN COMPETITIVE?

This session will examine what the future holds for the Winnipeg office market. Where are vacancy rates, cap rates and other underlying leasing and investment fundamentals heading at this time? Office space NERs tend to range widely from $6 to $25 per square foot – among the lowest in major Canadian cities. What will it take to increase these rates? What impact is True North Square and the renewal of 201 Portage expected to have on particularly the higher end of the market? How are Class B and C properties performing compared to Class A space? What does the future hold for the large proportion of older buildings that dominate a number of parts of the city? Can these aging assets be strategically repositioned? How are tenant workplace environments changing? How are new entities to the market responding to these evolving needs?

SESSION A2:
IS THE INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET VOLATILE OR STABLE?

With over 80 million square feet of industrial space, Winnipeg is the largest distribution centre between Vancouver and Toronto. The city is at the core of both of Canada’s national intermodal rail systems with direct connections to the United States via Burlington Northern. Winnipeg is also the headquarters for many of the top inter-provincial general freight barriers in Canada and offers access to ocean ports through Churchill and Thunder Bay. How is the industrial real estate market performing? Where are vacancy rates at this time? What are the major factors responsible for the increased demand for more industrial space? How are the City’s policies affecting the availability and cost of developable industrial land? What does the future hold for the older industrial properties that do not easily meet the needs of today’s logistics market and may be facing obsolescence? How are the design and requirements of industrial space changing?

Across Canada, there is an unprecedented amount of urban revitalization and development on a scale that has not been seen for decades. Aside from residential and commercial projects, major public sector and infrastructure projects have also been at the forefront of construction activity. This has been the case in Winnipeg as well. The city’s airport has flourished with an annual economic impact of $3.37B. When the new terminal opened in 2011, it was forecast that passenger traffic would hit 4M by 2019. That metric was actually met in 2016. The overall impact of the airport is rising faster than GDP growth. The extension of Chief Peguis Trail is finally moving ahead, creating an important east-west link with access to key industrial parks, creating recreational opportunities, and completing the Strategic Inner Ring Road. A Rapid Transit System is also a major priority in Plan Winnipeg 2020 Vision. This will have major implications for economic development and downtown revitalization. The University of Manitoba’s Smartpark Innovation Hub and Stanley Pauley Engineering Building will add to the university’s current $1B economic impact and continue to attract talent in the engineering and new tech areas. This session will examine these four among other initiatives.

11:50 AM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select B1, B2 or B3)

SESSION B1:
THE RETAIL MARKET IN WINNIPEG: ON FIRE OR A SLOW BURN?

Can the Winnipeg retail market continue to experience strength in leasing and growth? With more national retailers in receivership or closing stores, how does this impact a smaller market like Winnipeg? Many landlords have succeeded in increasing rents on renewals as well as the NERs of their centres. How does supply and demand balance with respect to the types of retail formats offered, tenant interest in this market, and levels of consumer spending? What new developments are responding to this market? Is differentiation a key ingredient between existing centres and new projects? Who are new retailers? What is the impact of: grocery chain stores battling it out in this small market; the new Outlet Collection of Winnipeg, the city’s first enclosed mall in over 30 years; rising labour costs; and online shopping and omnichannel strategies? What does the future hold?

SESSION B2:
WHAT ARE ENTREPRENEURS DOING IN TODAY’S MARKET TO SUCCEED?

Given the strong investor sentiment in the Canadian market, major opportunities have emerged for entrepreneurialism in the real estate industry. In the Winnipeg market, who are some of them and what are they doing? They are experienced at looking for innovation and accessing lower priced capital. They are often privately owned firms. While they do not dismiss risk, they often have the ability to see value and reward where many others do not. What have been the most significant challenges that they have had to endure? How do they see opportunities unfolding in the future with aging inventory of existing buildings and the potential to repurpose assets from one use to another, e.g. transforming aged inventory into new buildings, repurposing B class industrial into retail?

SESSION B3:
INVESTOR INTEREST IN WINNIPEG: WHO WANTS TO INCREASE THEIR PRESENCE IN THIS MARKET? IS IT ATTRACTING MIGRATORY CAPITAL?

An insightful discussion about investment activity in the Winnipeg market. The session will open with a brief overview of some of the bellwether transactions over the past twelve months. The panel will address a range of questions including: What have been the major challenges facing investors trying to buy assets in Winnipeg? How much migratory capital is making its way into this market from BC and Alberta? With the continued access to low priced capital and a strong number of potential buyers, how much of a disconnect is there between supply and demand of product? Where will cap rates be by 2018 relative to today’s prices? Which property classes and what quality of assets are most strongly favoured by investors? How does the investment market in Winnipeg compare with other Canadian cities?

12:45 PM

NETWORKING LUNCHEON:

LUNCHEON REFRESHMENTS:

1:45 PM

LUNCHEON SPEAKER:

KEYNOTE INTERVIEW
The Honourable Gary Doer, former Premier of Manitoba and former Canadian Ambassador to the United States

INTERVIEWED BY:
Ace Burpee, Host, Ace Burpee Show

2:25 PM

CONCURRENT SESSIONS (Select C1, C2 or C3)

SESSION C1:
THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE DOWNTOWN CORE, THE EXCHANGE DISTRICT AND OTHER AREAS OF WINNIPEG

Numerous iconic projects are playing a significant role in redefining the inner city of Winnipeg especially the greater downtown area. This session will examine some of the current most significant redevelopment and renewal projects, and how they are impacting Winnipeg. The discussion will begin with a brief update on CentrePlan, the city’s vision for the downtown core and how it is responds to the growth in the area’s population, encourages greater densification including mixed and residential uses along with the opening up of the key intersection of Portage and Main. The session will also examine the work of CentreVenture Development Corporation, the completion of True North Square, and the renewal of the Exchange District as a magnet for professional and creative service companies including the James Avenue Pumping Station. Downtown Winnipeg is on a roll.

SESSION C2:
IS THE STABLE APARTMENT MARKET EXPERIENCING SOME CHALLENGES? WHY DOES IT CONTINUE TO ATTRACT INVESTOR INTEREST?

This session will examine the principal trends in demand, supply and investment activity in the Winnipeg apartment market. What is the short and medium term outlook for the performance of the multi-unit residential sector? How diversified is this market? What caused the vacancy rate to jump modestly at year-end? Where are rent levels heading over the next twelve months? What impact are Airbnb and the condominium market having on the apartment market? Is there a possibility that there is and has been too much construction of new buildings including the 40 storey tower? Where are cap rates heading as investors continue to show strong interest in this property class? Have changes in CMHC mortgage insurance had any impact on apartment values? How have provincial regulations affected rent increases in this market?

SESSION C3:
CREDIT AND DEBT MARKETS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? WHERE ARE SPREADS HEADING? WHAT ARE THE MAJOR SOURCES?

A panel discussion that will focus specifically on the debt market and try to determine what borrowers can expect for the remainder of 2018 and beyond. Who are the major sources of CMHC-insured and conventional mortgages in Winnipeg? Where are pricing and loan availability trending in 2018? How are lenders assessing risk and stress testing transactions? To what extent do lending strategies vary amongst banks, credit unions, lifecos, and other sources? Are there any property classes that they are avoiding, reducing exposure to, or increasing pricing for? Case studies of actual transactions will also be examined during the discussion.

3:25 PM

AFTERNOON REFRESHMENTS

3:35 PM

EXECUTIVE ROUNDTABLE: HOW DO MAJOR INVESTORS ASSESS THE RISKS, CHALLENGES, STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2018 AND BEYOND?

A roundtable discussion with senior real estate executives as they provide their perspective on real estate market fundamentals for 2018 and beyond for the Winnipeg market. They will offer their insights on what they see occurring over the next twelve months, and their strategic thinking going forward. Among the other questions to be examined:

What are the most significant challenges, trends, risks and opportunities for investors and owners in the Winnipeg market?

Where are we in the cycle at this time in the Winnipeg market?

What can be expected with respect to investment velocity and deal flow? What asset classes and transactions will likely offer the best possible returns in 2018?

How much growth do you anticipate in rental rates in the Winnipeg market? What will generate the demand for more office, industrial and/or retail space?

What are you seeing in capital, financial and real estate markets across Canada?

What needs to change in order for Winnipeg to reach its ultimate potential?