Of course that stock has been getting killed lately. But that is the beauty of shorting stocks. Much like the quote about the lazy value investor, lazy short sellers have an advantage too. After all, a savvy short seller who shorts a stock at $100 and watches it fall to $0 gets exactly the same ROI as a lazy short seller who shorts a stock at $1 and watches it fall to $0, only the latter investor earns a much higher annualized return.

I don't recommend shorting this stock or any other, just giving you a place to start looking for exposure to Canadian real estate, etc.

Right, I follow Dundee a little and think that it is more or less fairly valued using GAAP book minus debt and preferreds.

But we also differ on Mr. Goodman himself. I've yet to see any real value creation from his actions. This stock was dead money from inception (1990's) up until the mid-aughts housing boom slash resources boom. I don't think you can rightly attribute recent performance to Mr. Goodman. Secondly, he has been a super gold bug since the 1960's, so again, after 40 years of being wrong do 10 years of being right make him a great steward or just in the right place at the right time? Couple this with the fallout in miners and inflated toronto stock market, there's reason to pause here. That and he literally said, "sell in may and go away" in his 2012 annual letter, so he obviously can't predict the future.

Its a very interesting set of assets, I love the merchant bankers (like LUK and BAM), trades at half book...

It is definitely not expensive. I just prefer to sit on the sidelines until I see a real no brainer; safe and cheap. Know what I mean.

Hey there Safety and Mike, I've been wanting to ask someone this, If Dundee (DC.A) had a book value of CAD$32 in 2013 and they spun off about $14 worth of DREAM, shouldn't their book value be about $18? So while they are trading at a discount to book, its not a huge amount (only about 5% or so). The discount shouldn't be as high as back in 08/09. I think all those financial sites that list DC.A at 0.5xBook have it wrong. All in all, it trades more less on par with LUK, which is the only comp I could think of.

Unfortunately, I don't have twenty good ideas. So I have a very concentrated portfolio.

You'll also notice that my two ideas were both big dividend paying wide moat boring stocks (I bought MO and EPE which became my current portfolio - I sold MO to pay off most of my mortgage)

KRFT is definitely stuck in the mud unless the middle class consumer comes back. It will be a very interesting lesson in economics and marketing to see if consumers stick with private labels or go back to brand names if and when the recovery trickles down to the rest of us.

Why I Support Chuck Carnevale's Preference For Valuation [View article]

time in the market is more valuable than timing the market.

As a DGI guy you should just buy the cheapest DGI stock on your watch list every third month when your dividend check arrives. This will grow your dividend purse and take your emotions out of the game.

the problem Mr. Hussman, is not that you have under-perfomed the rally. The problem is that you are LOSING your clients money. Worst case scenario a long/short or market neutral fund like yours should at least be able to stay flat, but to consistently lose money during a market rally is just silly. Prem Watsa at Fairfax says his portfolio is 100% hedged, but he isn't losing money.