The Erosion of a [Formerly] Faithful Base

With five months until Election Day, Barack Obama faces a grim new reality: Republicans now believe Mitt Romney can win, and Democrats believe Obama can lose … Last week’s anemic job-creation and economic-growth data was sandwiched between two Bill Clinton specials: in one television interview, the 42nd President lauded Romney’s business record as “sterling”; in another, he veered from the Obama line on the extension of Bush-era tax cuts … The failure to unseat Wisconsin’s Republican governor Scott Walker in a recall election was another bad sign for Democrats since it will rev up conservatives nationwide, including the kind of millionaires who gave big bucks to Walker’s effort … Veteran Democratic strategists from previous presidential bids and on Capitol Hill now wonder if the Obama re-election crew is working with the right message … The White House remains on a rough political trajectory, with a potentially adverse Supreme Court decision on the Obama health care law looming, additional bad economic news from Europe coming and more worrisome polling pending ..

President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows.

The poll finds that Mitt Romney would get 20 percent of the African-American vote if the election were held today, compared with 76 percent for Obama. Overall, Romney has a 48 percent to 46 percent lead on Obama in the crucial swing state.

Obama received 95 percent of the support from African-Americans in North Carolina in the 2008 election, compared with just 5 percent for Republican nominee John McCain.

In PPP’s May poll, Obama received 87 percent of the African-American vote to Romney’s 11 percent.

All of Obama’s numbers with African-Americans are sliding. His approval rating is down from 86 percent to 77 percent. Romney’s favorability, meanwhile, has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent.

“This thing is not a lock,” the filmmaker told GQ in a recent interview. “It is not a lock that President Obama is getting a second term and people have to really rekindle the enthusiasm that we had the first time.”

“I can’t say to all the people that are unhappy with him that they’re racist people,” Lee said of Obama’s critics. “People ain’t got jobs, people are hurting. So I don’t care what color you are, if people are out of work, it’s tough. And then when you’re the first African American president, that’s not helping either.”

The poll, conducted by Siena College, finds that currently President Obama has the support of 51 percent of Jewish voters, while 43 percent are opposed to him. Five percent are undecided. That means, Obama’s lead among Jewish voters is at 8 percentage points.

Previously, in Siena’s May poll, Obama had the support 62 percent of Jewish New Yorkers, while 32 percent opposed him. That means, last month, Obama’s lead among this group of voters was at a strong 30 percentage points.

In the most significant, Gallup found that union member support for the president is weaker than it was on Election Day. While Obama took 67 of the union vote, according to 2008 election night polling by Peter Hart for the AFL-CIO, Gallup discovered that just 58 percent of union members back the president now. Some 35 percent support Mitt Romney, 5 percent more than Sen. John McCain won in 2008.

Rasmussen Reports, found that a majority of likely American voters — 60 percent — believe that it is at least somewhat likely that the next president will be a Republican, including 34% who see this scenario as very likely. Among Democrats, 35 percent of likely voters also said Obama would be followed by a Republican.