I, as many others, have often wondered just how much “luck”
played a factor into fantasy football success. Good luck is the
thing fantasy owners hope for when three of their studs are on
a bye on the same week and it just so happens to be the same week
they play the league juggernaut - who has no bye weeks to plan
around - and the first owner wins convincingly. Bad luck is when
the owner of the fantasy team has a 30-point lead heading into
the Monday Night Football game but has the misfortune of facing
Drew Brees (when the Saints decided to keep passing all game long
despite going against one of the league’s best secondaries
in Green Bay) or Antonio Bryant (when he decided to channel his
inner Jerry Rice in a shootout vs. Carolina). The worst kind of
luck for any owner is most evident when the one owner who auto-drafted
his/her team is the one that coasts through the season with no
injuries and finishes in the money.

There is little doubt that fantasy football is a game of chance,
as Charles Spellman so eloquently detailed in this
article back in April. But if this game is really about 10%
skill and 90% luck as I am to understand (which it probably is),
I need to start consulting with Yogi Berra about how much of this
game is mental and physical. Unlike many other games of chance,
the player (in this case, the fantasy owner) has a fair amount
of control over his/her odds of being very competitive but gets
to use the same constants game after game (i.e. starting each
hand in poker with a pair of aces, no questions asked) or has
the ability to trade those assets (i.e. being able to acquire
another ace from the person across the table to the person in
order to complete your full house).

For example, it only takes an injury to Adrian Peterson to turn
that 10th round selection of Chester Taylor - that was used strictly
for depth purposes during draft time - into the choice that powers
a middling fantasy team into serious contention. I’m not
necessarily sure I disagree with many of Charles’ assertions
in the Skill vs. Luck
article (I‘ve long abandoned studying probability theory),
it just seems that if only 10% of this game we love is skill,
there must be a whole lot of unlucky people out there. Fantasy
sports - or for the sake of this article, fantasy football - are
the only games of chance I have played that seem to consistently
reward the player who is equal parts knowledgeable, gutsy and
savvy, so I will go against the findings somewhat and suggest
that fantasy football owners tend to create their own luck much
more than it is decided for them.

Regardless of what degree I believe that luck plays an overwhelming
role of fantasy success, the point to be made here is that is
does heavily contribute into the mix of factors that determine
just how successful a fantasy team can be. But even though fantasy
sports had yet to be created when Rickey made his comments nearly
60 years ago, it is amazing how it applies to our little hobby.
Think about it...how often do the same owners in your league(s)
find themselves making a title run year after year? Just as Spellman
suggested in his piece, year-to-year consistency is the one thing
observers can look at to see just how “lucky” or “skillful”
their fellow league mates are. It is my opinion that the owners
who are competitive year after year do so by design, the least
of which is making sure they are as prepared as they can be heading
into the season. This kind of preparation not only includes just
how a certain roster change can affect all the players on that
current team, but it also includes understanding how your own
league’s rules affect a player’s value (i.e. how much
more valuable a player like Wes Welker has in a PPR league over
a non-PPR).

Over the next 14 weeks, I hope to expand on a bit on the PSA
series that I started last season, giving each of you a comprehensive
view of many of the factors I weigh when determining my stance
on a player. Last season, I touched upon the virtues of considering
multiple factors (such as age, injuries or indifference on the
other side of the ball) in determining the season-to-season success
of an individual player, however, I only briefly hit on those
subjects. This time around, with a lot more time and just as much
space, I hope to take the reader through a complete offseason
workout of sorts - including the subject matter today. Thus, let’s
consider the first of a handful of preseason topics I will cover
in this space: how the new wave of offensive coordinators figure
into the equation and how they will likely affect the unit they
will be overseeing this fall. I will cover the first half of offensive
coordinator changes this week and the second half at the same
time next week.

(And Charles, if you are reading this article, my apologies.
In a way, I feel like I’m arguing with my college instructor
about a subject he received his degree in and I’m just the
poor kid in the back of the class trying to fulfill my electoral
requirements.)

Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt

Ken Whisenhunt: Looking for the same run-pass
balance that took Arizona to the Super Bowl.

Whisenhunt is obviously not a first-time play caller as his success
in Pittsburgh is what led to him taking over the Cardinals. Considering
his track record with the Steelers, I will be most interested
in determining: 1) how much of last year's offensive success can
get attributed to Todd Haley? and 2) does the addition of rookie
RB Chris" Beanie" Wells tempt Whisenhunt to return to
his Pittsburgh Steelers roots in which a physical running game
set up the pass? Granted, all of this could change if WR Anquan
Boldin was to hold out or QB Kurt Warner conjures up the injury
demons (or the bad aura) that eventually led to his dismissals
in St. Louis and New York earlier in the decade.

I believe what we do know is this: Whisenhunt will do everything
in his power to repeat the run-pass balance the Cardinals were
able to maintain in last postseason's run to the Super Bowl. In
order to do this, Arizona will have to remain the ball-hawking
unit it became during the playoffs in which it forced its three
NFC foes into 12 turnovers. Turning opponents over four times
a game isn't something that's likely to carry over into the next
season, so I believe fantasy owners could be in for more of the
aerial circus that we saw Arizona dazzle us with during the 2008
regular season. Besides the loss of DE Antonio Smith to Houston,
I believe the most significant loss (and most likely reason that
Warner & Co. will have to continue airing in out) is the departure
of DC Clancy Pendergast, who was annually one the most underrated
defensive coaches in his time in the desert. For most of the tenure,
Pendergast had little more than S Adrian Wilson and LB Karlos
Dansby to work with, yet the Cardinals were able to confound a
handful of teams each year, due in large part to his ability to
outwit his offensive counterpart.

Verdict: I honestly believe
Haley (more than Whisenhunt) was responsible for the over-the-top
fantasy numbers that were produced by Arizona's passing game last
year. That's not to suggest that Whisenhunt had nothing to do
with it, just that Haley's in-your-face approach and meticulous
detail pushed Warner and each of his receivers to unprecedented
heights. While I doubt the Cardinals will match last year's offensive
numbers across the board, this unit will be much more portable
- as in capable of winning any kind of game, be it a shootout,
defense battle or a cold-weather game (remember week 16 versus
New England?). So while the extraordinary numbers may not be there
again this season - at least not at the standards set in 2008
- I wouldn't be all that shocked if Arizona is actually a better
team. Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin all should top-five considerations
at their positions and no-brainer plays in fantasy lineups. Wells,
on the other hand, seems likely to get the majority of carries,
although short-yard and goal-line duties will not be assured to
the rookie. Tim Hightower was a pretty good back in that role
last season, but he shed 15 pounds in the offseason and it is
hard to imagine he'd be better than Wells would be in that capacity.
As such, I'll lean ever so slightly towards Wells seeing the bulk
of the work in the running game (with him coming out only when
he needs a rest) while free agent signee Jason Wright or seventh-round
pick LaRod Stephens-Howling figure to receive much of the third-down
duties.

Cleveland - Brian Daboll

Going into last season, it appeared the Browns would have enough
firepower on offense to keep the ship afloat while HC Romeo Crennel
continued to build a defense reminiscent of the ones he used to
oversee in New England. However, QB Derek Anderson played nothing
like he did just a season earlier, WR Braylon Edwards displayed
some of the worst hands a receiver has exhibited since James Jett
and Donte Stallworth was an utter disappointment as a free-agent
addition. Combine that with a defense that played well under expectations
and it is little wonder Cleveland decided to clean house again
since rejoining the league back in 1999.

Where as Daboll's pet project last season was acclimating new
QB Brett Favre into the Jets offense under then-HC Eric Mangini,
this challenge this time around will be introducing an offense
that will likely need to lean heavily on rookie WRs Mohamed
Massaquoi and Brian
Robiskie. Even though the latter should have a much shorter
learning curve than most considering his father is a longtime
receivers coach in the NFL, that alone will not be enough to get
this receiving corps where it needs to be in 2009. Also consider
that Daboll will literally have his hands full in trying to get
one of the league's best playmakers to understand how to use his
on a consistent basis. Edwards led the league in dropped passes
last season, almost to the point where it became comical as the
season progressed. Lastly, Cleveland opted to trade away its best
pair of hands in the offseason, dealing TE Kellen Winslow to Tampa
Bay, further robbing the winner of this summer's QB competition
- Anderson or Brady
Quinn - of someone that he can lean on when the going gets
tough.

Daboll's experience is an interesting mix of Bill Belichick and
some members of his coaching tree. After volunteering at William
& Mary for a year, he spent two years at Michigan State under
Belichick protégé Nick Saban as a graduate assistant.
From 2000-06, he worked under Belichick as a defensive assistant
and WR coach before leaving to join Mangini in New York in 2008
as a QB coach.

Verdict: If we are to believe that Daboll has completely embraced
the "Patriot Way", it is quite likely that the WR and
TE workload in the passing game will be spread out somewhat evenly
with a fairly high amount of specialization being required from
the RBs. This could suggest a further decline from RB Jamal Lewis
while fellow RB Jerome Harrison may see a career high number of
touches. Look for Massaquoi, Robiskie and David Patten to all
take turns being fantasy relevant but inconsistent at best in
2009. And now that Winslow is gone, fantasy owners should expect
Patriot-like diversity from TEs Steve Heiden (if he makes a speedy
recovery from ACL and MCL surgery), Martin Rucker and maybe even
ex-Bill Robert Royal.

Denver - Mike McCoy/Josh McDaniels

Can Josh McDaniels make Kyle Orton a better
fantasy QB than Jay Cutler in '09?

Give McCoy and McDaniels credit for one thing: they don't mind
a challenge at QB. McCoy has spent most of his pro coaching career
working with Jake Delhomme - who is either the best QB in Carolina's
short franchise history, its most frustrating or both. Likewise,
McDaniels - through no fault of his own - really made a name for
himself this past season when he took Matt Cassel from a no-name
backup who hadn't received a meaningful snap in nearly 10 years
to a player who the Patriots applied the franchise tag to this
offseason before trading him away in late February. Unfortunately,
the bond between McDaniels and Cassel was too strong, as it set
into motion the biggest surprise story of the offseason when the
new Broncos coach let it be known that he preferred his old QB
to his new one. One thing led to another and it should come as
little surprise that Jay Cutler is no longer a Bronco. However,
it is ironic neither McDaniels nor McCoy has required a highly-touted
QB to lead their offense recently. So while the Cutler drama was
completely unnecessary and just plain sad for all parties involved,
Denver did well to acquire as much compensation as it did, including
probable starter Kyle
Orton, when it clearly did not hold a position of power in
trade negotiations.

Although McCoy has the title, there is little doubt this will
be McDaniels’ offense for the foreseeable future. And judging
by the Broncos’ offseason activity, it may be a reasonable assumption
that the new coach may do his best to re-create the 2008 Patriots.
With Orton playing the role of Cassel, expect to see plenty of
four-wide sets out of the shotgun. Jabar
Gaffney and Brandon
Stokley are no slouches and serve as one of the better No.
3 and No. 4 WR combos in the league, but either would be hard-pressed
to fill the shoes of WRs Brandon
Marshall and Eddie
Royal if either were to go down for any length of time. While
Marshall waits to hear of another possible suspension to start
the season, it is doubtful he will miss much game action. Fortunately
for Denver, they have one more weapon in the passing game - TE
Tony Scheffler
- who McDaniels continues to rave about. Throw in first-round
rookie RB Knowshon
Moreno, who is very accomplished as a receiver and blocker
out of the backfield, and the expectations for this offense should
be very optimistic. As such, I fully expect Orton to have an incredible
year so long as he stays healthy. He was starting to emerge as
a regular fantasy starter until he was injured in a Week 8 win
against the Lions. To his credit, he missed just one week with
his severely sprained ankle, but it was clear he wasn’t the same
QB following his return to the field that he was before the injury.

Verdict: While McDaniels had
little choice in following Mike Shanahan, he has had a large hand
in just about everything that has transpired ever since. But while
it is clear that Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli don’t share their
personnel trade secrets with each of their coaches, McDaniels
and new GM Brian Xanders are obviously pretty fair recruiters,
bringing 17 new faces in during free agency. (Another 10 draft
picks were added to the team as well.) A team with this much turnover
doesn’t figure to make a title run, but that doesn’t mean that
Denver won’t be a fantasy goldmine in 2009.

In what may be my most shocking prediction of the preseason, Orton
will be a better fantasy QB than Cutler this season. For
one, Orton will be operating in a more fantasy-friendly system
and, moreover, the Broncos have a legitimate threat at every skill
position not to mention a better offensive line. While Marshall
and Royal will be hard-pressed to repeat their combined 195 catches
from last season, it would come as a surprise if their touches
weren’t more efficient (i.e. better yards/catch than 12.2 and
10.8, respectively). In other words, Marshall and Royal may be
less productive in PPR leagues but may find their value increase
in non-PPR leagues. Up until the new coach decided to tout Scheffler,
I expected one of Cutler's favorite targets to be the biggest
loser with this transition. Consider me a bit skeptical because
McDaniels had a similar talent with the Pats named Ben Watson,
but Scheffler is a superior TE, so look for him to get his numbers.
And as far as Orton is concerned, last year showed he had little
issue working with Greg Olsen, who compares favorably to Scheffler.

Last but not least, expect Moreno to take very little time in
asserting his will over his competition in the backfield (LaMont
Jordan, Correll
Buckhalter). It wasn’t until I took a second look at the ex-Bulldog’s
game tape that I realized just how special he is. This decade,
I have identified three runners coming out of the draft that I
felt so strongly about: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and
now Moreno. Hopefully, that is all the encouragement fantasy owners
need to target him in their drafts this summer. Unlike Shanahan’s
Broncos, Denver wasted little time pursuing a back in the draft
as the selection of Moreno at #12 overall signals a big change
in philosophy at the position, meaning I believe it is safe again
to believe in Denver RBs as fantasy cornerstones.

Detroit - Scott Linehan

The former Rams HC is the first coordinator on this list that
not only already has coordinator experience, but also will likely
have little to no interference (or input) from his boss. While
Linehan never quite seemed to be able to grab the Rams' attention
as the head coach, it is his work as a play caller in Minnesota
and Miami that has me sold on his ability to squeeze points and
yards out of Detroit this season and beyond. Some coaches, for
whatever reason, just aren't meant to run an entire team. So while
new Lions HC Jim Schwartz gets busy trying to turn around the
league's first 0-16 franchise and their paper-thin defense, Linehan
will immerse himself into coaxing production from a talented group
of skill position players, beginning with RB Kevin
Smith and rookie TE Brandon
Pettigrew. When one considers that he oversaw some of the
best years from Randy Moss, Chris Chambers, Steven Jackson, Randy
McMichael and old friend QB Daunte
Culpepper, there is reason to believe that Detroit will be
playing entertaining offensive football once again.

Here's his track record as a play-caller: top 10 finishes in each
of his three years with the Vikings, finishing no lower than eighth
in points scored or fourth in total yards. In his lone season
with Miami, he guided the Fins to a top half finish in both categories
with Gus Frerotte as his starter at QB, something the team has
done only one other time this decade (in 2002). But while most
of his beneficiaries listed above are not RBs, it is in the running
game where Linehan seems to make the biggest difference when he
joins a staff. In 2002, Linehan was in charge when RB Michael
Bennett rushed to his lone 1,000-yard campaign in his first season
as a coordinator before making Moe Williams and Onterrio Smith
useful fantasy players the next season. Only once in his four
seasons as an OC has his team's rushing attack finished lower
than 12th (2004), so while all-world WR Calvin
Johnson will likely be making DBs look bad once again this
season, his job will be made easier by Smith, who should be granted
every opportunity to build upon a strong finish to the 2008 season.
Mo Morris was brought in from Seattle, but Detroit has no plans
at the current time to have Smith share carries, thereby allowing
Smith to easily eclipse the 976 rushing yards he posted last season
and helping him to find his way into fantasy lineups on a weekly
basis.

Verdict: Just as will be the case with any of the other 31 teams
in the league, how effective a team's offense will be in 2009
will depend heavily on the offensive line. For Detroit, it will
be fall on new OL coach George Yarno, who will try to get more
out of his front line in just his second year as a NFL assistant
than his recent predecessors have. The synchronicity of a play
caller and his OL coach, in my opinion, is as important as any
coordinator-assistant relationship in football. The good news
is that from a talent standpoint, Yarno will have a bit more to
work with, as Pettigrew enters this season as one of the better
blocking TEs to come out of the draft in recent memory. The team
also added free agent T Ephraim Salaam, who could work his way
into the starting lineup with a strong camp, allowing the Lions
to possibly move LT Jeff Backus inside, where he is probably headed
at some point in the near future anyway.

The reason this is all is worth mentioning is because the more
Linehan can establish Smith and the ground game, the more opportunities
Johnson will have down the field. When one considers the jaw-dropping
stats the man-child WR put up on a team with no other viable threats
(and on a winless team to boot), it is quite possible we are seeing
a player who is about ready to embark on a long streak of 1,300-yard-plus,
15-TD-plus seasons. Expect Johnson to start drawing "best
WR in the league" consideration starting this season. Elsewhere,
Smith should be at least a mid-range #2 RB in 12-team leagues
on a team that will try very hard each week to establish the run.
Otherwise, I would not be surprised if Culpepper (until Matthew
Stafford is deemed ready), WRs Bryant Johnson and Ronald Curry
and Pettigrew all found themselves on fantasy rosters at various
points during the season, likely as bye-week fillers although
Johnson could serve as a #4 or #5 fantasy wideout in some leagues.
The point to be made here is that while I don't expect Detroit
to revolutionize the game with its offense, it could very well
be the source of some pleasant, unexpected fantasy numbers in
2009.

Kansas City - Chan Gailey/Todd Haley

The Chiefs pose an interesting mix at the top, pairing a play
caller who has head coaching experience under the employ of a
coach who has none and is known to have a short fuse. What also
makes it interesting is that Gailey and Haley both turned shotgun-heavy
with their offenses (Kansas City and Arizona, respectively) last
season, but for somewhat different reasons. When his hand was
forced to a third-string, second-year QB in 2008, Gailey recognized
that in an effort to keep him healthy longer and give his QB as
much time as possible behind a poor offensive line, it would be
in everyone’s best interest to let Tyler
Thigpen run the offense he used at Coastal Carolina, allowing
him to show off his athleticism in the process. On the other hand,
Haley went shotgun as Arizona was unable to get the ground game
started in a lot of their regular season games. Even though he
is almost a completely different QB, Kurt Warner excelled in Haley’s
attack last season because he was such a sound and quick decision
maker in the pocket and his all-world WRs didn’t require much
time to get open (or in Larry Fitzgerald’s case in the postseason,
he didn’t even need to be open).

Even though Gailey didn’t go anywhere this offseason, both he
and Haley will be working with far less talent than they were
in 2008. Gailey had to be disappointed when the Chiefs traded
away TE Tony Gonzalez, the linchpin in the Kansas City passing
offense for over a decade. And while Haley won’t exactly be starting
over, Matt Cassel-Dwayne
Bowe-Mark
Bradley-Bobby
Engram doesn’t quite measure up to Warner-Fitzgerald-Anquan
Boldin-Steve Breaston. Nevertheless, the Chiefs figure to be a
wide-open offense once again, and with no more Gonzo, KC may work
almost entirely out of three-and-four-wide sets, unless new starting
TE Brad
Cottam has a huge camp. Either way, it is hard to see how
this offense will ever be centered around RB Larry
Johnson again as long as Gailey and Haley are working together,
although I do expect the Chiefs to take advantage of LJ’s hands
in the passing game once again after giving him most of last year
off in that regard.

Verdict: While this offensive rebuilding project isn’t
quite as challenging as the one going on across the state in St.
Louis, the overall team restructuring is probably more so. Though
hard to believe, DC Clancy Pendergast has about as little to work
with right now as he ever did in Arizona, which is really saying
something. Combine that with a defensive scheme ill-fitted to
the current personnel and it means that the Chiefs’ could
be this year’s Broncos against the run. What it all means
for the offense is this: they may not have a choice but to throw
it around all day. With Gonzalez now in Atlanta, Bowe may go into
Brandon Marshall territory and be targeted nearly 200 times! (Marshall
averaged 12 targets/game in 2008 and was on pace for 194 if had
played all 16 games.) Needless to say, Bowe needs to be viewed
as a low-end #1 WR at the very least in non-PPR and a top ten
wideout in PPR leagues. As long as he stays healthy, Bradley should
serve as a very usable #3 fantasy WR in 12-team leagues as should
Engram, so long as he can hold off Father Time one more season.
I could see LJ performing well depending on the matchup, but he
probably has slipped into mid-to-low #2 RB territory, with that
status fluctuating up or down slightly depending on whether or
not he is used in the passing game as much as he used to be. Because
KC won’t have a lot of leads to protect this season, I can’t
see a situation where he performs all that consistently on the
ground.