So here’s one way to think of the differences over what it would take for Democrats to win a majority in 2018.

Imagine that there is a 10.6 foot wall. Democrats somehow need to get over that wall to get a majority. #fairmaps 1/

Now, one way to do so would be to build a 10.6 foot ladder - or better yet an 11 foot one because a bit of extra is helpful in these things. #fairmaps 2/

But some think, we’ll, maybe you won’t need a 10.6 foot ladder because it’s been raining a lot and I think there are probably going to be some mudslides that push up against the wall. Ds may only need a 7-8 foot ladder. #fairmaps 3/

And in a given year, say, 2018, that may be a reasonable assumption. (Though needless to say, the builders of the wall weren’t projecting mudslides of that magnitude when they built it). #fairmaps 4/

Others might note that Ds recruited some really great jumpers this time around and say, well, that also will help. And it could. #fairmaps 5/

But the point is that it still is a 10.6 foot wall, i.e., a significant structural barrier. People can debate whether it might be less daunting in a given year b/c of mudslides, etc. But just because you can overcome it one year doesn’t make it less real. #fairmaps 6/

I realize political people want to debate mudslides, etc - and it’s plenty interesting (and fun). But as redistricting people, we are more concerned that the barrier is there in the first place. #fairmaps 7/

At the end of the day if a party, whether Democrats in North Carolina or Republicans in Maryland, have barriers placed that require the equivalent of mudslides to win more seats, well, that’s a problem - even if this is a year of mudslides. #fairmaps 8/

Which is another way of saying that we shouldn’t be in the position of depending on mudslides - or wave elections - to deliver change. #fairmaps 9/

A few more thoughts on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering cases - or more specifically the facts. #fairmaps#ncpol 2/

Although some are skeptical about what the Supreme Court will do in the partisan gerrymandering cases it took today (and not without justification, especially given Justice Kennedy’s retirement), it’s important to remember how unusual the facts of NC are. #fairmaps#ncpol 3/

2018 was a busy and, in many ways, head spinning year on the redistricting front - with action in both state and federal court and at the ballot box. A look back. #fairmaps 1/

Things kicked off on January 5, when the special master in the racial gerrymandering challenge to North Carolina's legislative maps issued his recommendations on how the maps should be redrawn. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 2/

Then, on Jan 9, while the court in the NC racial gerrymandering case was weighing recommendations for fixes to the legislative maps, a different federal court issued a ruling striking down NC's congressional map as a partisan gerrymander. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 3/

Related threads

One of the reasons I first got into bitcoin was because of the massive central bank money printing in 2009-2010, I figured that we had a few years of deflation ahead first, but then I'd eventually want to get the heck out of fiat. With Trump's recent pressure on the Fed,

2/ I finally see a clear path for what many have long discussed - the USD's loss of global reserve status and general confidence of investors. Typically recessions are deflationary; inflationary recessions are historically quite rare in comparison.

3/ Crypto probably is hurt by a deflationary recession, helped by an inflationary one. The current economic climate sets up unusually well for an inflationary recession with tight labor markets and the huge amounts of fiat sloshing around the system.

Good thread. As Nate S also points out, large R seat gains in 2010 possible bc 2008 was a Democratic high-water mark, as opposed to this year, when Rs were fairly weak going in. Lots of confusion in the "wave" discussion between levels and changes 1/

So here's one way to think about it: the incoming D majority in the House rests on a popular vote majority greater than Republicans ever enjoyed during their dominance from Gingrich to Ryan. America has solidly chosen a D Congress, more than it ever did for other side 2/

If this starts to sink in, a prediction: Trump will move on from trying to steal and/or delegitimize Senate races to claiming massive fraud in the House. And everyone in the GOP will back him up 3/

From @b_schaffner: "Priming Gender: Campaigning on Women's Issues in U.S. Senate Elections" addresses endogenous politics of the gender gap. Campaigns see it matter in 1 election, they change course next election: Dems run on compassion, GOP on personality/crime/taxes. 2/n

The evidence there suggests that sympathetic women responsive to the Dem strategy, men unmoved. That's a great strategy: pull in folks, don't drive others off. Would be great for someone to replicate with data from current decade. 3/n

I am going to post links here to the most popular resources I have been asked for, because some people have said that they feel uncomfortable asking, but also because the number of requests is a bit much.
If there's something specific you'd like me to add, then let me know :)

Here is a link to my 'so you think you've finished display'. 17 cross curricular generic activities which you can put up as a display, print as extension cards, or insert slides into your powerpoints. drive.google.com/file/d/1aWu3un…

Here is the link to a range of different activities to promote speaking and listening in the classroom.