25Apr14

Diaoyu Islands vow "may backfire"

US President Barack Obama's promise of military cover for Japan's claim on
the Diaoyu Islands faces the potential of backfiring, observers said.

Obama stated in a press conference in Tokyo on Thursday that the US-Japan
mutual security treaty covers China's Diaoyu Islands.

"We do not believe that they should be subject to change unilaterally, and
what is a consistent part of the alliance is that the treaty covers all territories
administered by Japan." The forthright remarks from Obama are widely
interpreted as a display of Washington's strong commitment to its Asian allies
designed to dispel suspicion of weakening US clout in the region.

Obama is on a four-nation tour that was postponed seven months ago
because of the US government shutdown. He faced flak at the time for
postponing the trip, both in the US and overseas, amid criticism that the US
was preoccupied with domestic affairs at the expense of its international
commitments.

Responding to Obama's comments, Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun
said that the Chinese army will continue military patrols in "relevant waters" in
the East China Sea.

The Chinese military is "fully capable of safeguarding the Diaoyu Islands, and
it is unnecessary for other nations to go to extreme lengths to provide a
so-called security guarantee," Yang said, adding that China will firmly
safeguard territorial sovereignty in the face of provocation from Japan.

Ruan Zongze, vice-president of the China Institute of International Studies,
said Obama's remarks may lead to unforeseen problems because the military
commitment -- directly naming specific islands -- could "sabotage US
strategic initiatives in the region" and undermine its strategic flexibility.

"As a result, Tokyo is keeping Washington in check in this regard, and,
honestly, the ruling Japanese cabinet is very unpredictable," Ruan said.

Ruan noted that Obama's remarks about the islands "also harm the credibility
of the US", because instead of taking an honest broker's viewpoint the US is
firmly backing one side and this has the potential to cause problems.

With Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe beside him, Obama told reporters
that he had not drawn any new "red line" over the islands, and he emphasized
the need to resolve maritime disputes peacefully.

"The treaty between the US and Japan preceded my birth, so, obviously, this
isn't a red line that I'm drawing," Obama said.

Li Haidong, a researcher of US studies at China Foreign Affairs University,
said Obama's visit to Japan aimed to boost Japan's status as a "pillar" of
Asia-Pacific security and as a key player in containing China.

But, Li said, the two allies have different agendas.

"The US seeks stability in the big picture of its relationship with China, yet
Japan is not afraid of fanning the flames of a conflict with China," Li said.

The US-Japan defense treaty requires Washington to come to Japan's
defense if it is attacked.

Experts said Washington believes that backing Tokyo will have long-term
benefits.

Lyu Yaodong, an expert on Japanese diplomacy at the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, said Obama is "determined to see tangible progress in his
rebalancing strategy" during his Asian trip, and "to achieve this goal, satisfying
demands from Japan regarding the islands is necessary".

Abe told reporters on Thursday that "the Japan-US alliance is more robust
than ever before."

"The US pivot cannot succeed without strong support from important allies
such as Japan," Lyu said.

Ruan noted a shift in the US-Japan military relationship, and one example is
that the US is "outsourcing" more defense duties to Japan.

"Washington believes that its promise on the islands is a feasible way to
strengthen its influence over Japan, and accordingly Washington wants
Japan's self-defense forces to play a greater role, which is very dangerous,"
Ruan said.

Yang, the Defense Ministry spokesman, also confirmed what Chinese Navy
Commander Wu Shengli said on Wednesday about a worst-case scenario.

Wu told reporters on the sidelines of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium
that the possibility of a military conflict remains between China and Japan, and
the priority is to "prevent the outbreak of a conflict".

Yang also said the PLA will continue military patrols in waters near a tropical
Japanese island close to Taiwan, days after Tokyo announced it would break
ground on a new radar base in the area.

The radar station on Yonaguni Island, just 150 km from the Diaoyu Islands,
marks Japan's first military expansion at the western end of its island chain in
more than 40 years.

"We are paying close attention to Japan's military trends," he said.

"China's military will continue to carry out battle readiness patrols, military
drills and other activities in the area," Yang said.

[Source: By Zhang Yunbi, Xinhua, Beijing, 25Apr14]

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