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Pound/Euro & Pound/Dollar May 2014 forecast

Monday 1st May 2014 It’s been a little quiet on the markets today, with an EU bank holiday meaning trade is thin, and economic statistics are also thin.

We have seen Sterling rise a little this morning however after UK Consumer credit and net lending figures were quite a bit higher than expected. This means if people are borrowing more money, there is in turn more confidence in the economy, hence the spike for Sterling. This has pushed GBP/EUR close to €1.22 and GBP/USD to $1.69.

What next for Pound/Euro rates?

Sterling/Euro is trading around the best it’s been since January 2013. It’s being kept strong by robust UK data, and the threat of monetary easing in the Eurozone.

Next Thursday, we have the latest decision by the European Central Bank. While I don’t think that they will announce any change to interest rates, in the press conference afterwards they may well hint at some sort of monetary stimulus such as Quantitative Easing or a negative deposit interest rate. If they do, then this could well weaken the Euro a bit and push the rate higher.

For those buying Euros, I think that’s your best hope of an increase, and I can’t see it going too much higher, as the Bank of England have also warned that if the GBP/EUR rate goes too high, it will hurt the UK recovery and so they may in turn take action to weaken the Pound.

What next for Pound/Dollar rates?

It’s been a little quiet on the markets today, with an EU bank holiday meaning trade is thin, and economic statistics are also thin.

Sterling/Dollar rates are trading at their highest level in 5 years! Again, much of this is to do with the strength in the Pound, and weakness in the US Dollar. This week US growth figures came in at 0.1% – it was forecast to be 1.2% so it’s much worse than thought. This has caused the Dollar to weaken, become cheaper to buy, and push rates above $1.69 today briefly.

If you need USD, it would be wise to consider fixing the rate while it’s so good. Their economy will recover at some point, and when it does expect them to taper their stimulus measures which could give the Dollar back to strength and bring rates back down. How long this will take to happen though is impossible to know.

Getting the best exchange rates

The chances are that if you are reading this blog, you are keen to know what is moving the exchange rate, which way it may go in the future, and also that you want to get the best possible rate.

I update this blog to keep people up to date with exchange rates in simple terms. In this way I hope I can help people decide when to fix their rate. I work for one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokerages and have over 8 years’ experience as a currency broker.

So if you need the best rates, click below to get in touch with me for a quote to see how much I can save you on your exchange.