The occurrence and abundance of conifers along climate gradients in the Inland Northwest (USA) was assessed using data from 5082 field plots, 81% of which were forested. Analyses using the Random Forests classification tree revealed that the sequential distribution of species along an altitudinal gradient could be predicted with reasonable accuracy from a single...

A bioclimate model predicting the presence or absence of aspen, Populus tremuloides, in western USA from climate variables was developed by using the Random Forests classification tree on Forest Inventory data from about 118,000 permanent sample plots. A reasonably parsimonious model used eight predictors to describe aspen's climate profile. Classification errors...

Paleoecological reconstructions from two lakes in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountain region of Idaho and Montana revealed the presence of bark beetle elytra and head capsules (cf. Dendroctonus spp., most likely D. ponderosae, mountain pine beetle). Occurrence of these macrofossils during the period of time associated with the 1920/...

Approximately 185,000 forest inventory and ecological plots from both USA and Canada were used to predict the contemporary distribution of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) from climate variables. The random forests algorithm, using an 8-variable model, produced an overall error rate of about 2.9 %, nearly all of which consisted of predicting presence at...

Phytophthora ramorum populations are clonal and consist of three clonal lineages: EU1 is the only lineage found in Europe with a few isolated nursery infections in the USA; NA1 is associated with natural infestations in California and Oregon as well as some nursery infections in North America, and NA2 has a limited distribution and has only...

The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA), Adelges tsugae, is an invasive pest of Tsuga spp. in eastern North America. Scymnus coniferarum is a predaceous beetle that was collected from HWA in the western United States. Limited knowledge of this insect in its native habitat led to studies to evaluate its potential...

The storage and flow of carbon (C) into and out of forests can differ under the influence of dominant tree species because of species-based variation in C production, decomposition, retention, and harvest-based export. Following abandonment of agricultural activities in the first half of the 20th century, many landscapes of the Great Lakes region (USA) were planted to...

Over the past century, annual snowfall has increased across the ¡®snow-belt¡¯ region of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, yet total annual precipitation has not changed, with potential impacts on hydrological processes and ecosystem composition. Using an integrated hydrochemical approach, we characterized groundwater discharge and quantified the contribution of snow-...

Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of...

Patterns of shoot elongation of 2-yr seedlings from native North American populations of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir were compared to those of Argentine land races originating from unknown provenances. The comparisons were conducted in Moscow, Idaho (USA), and suggested that the ponderosa pine land race was descended from a California provenance at low or middle...

Non-native species invasions, growing human populations, and climate change are central ecological concerns in tropical island communities. The combination of these threats have led to losses of native biota, altered hydrological and ecosystem processes, and reduced ecosystem services. These threats pose complex problems to often underfunded management entities. We...

Elevated CO2 has been shown to stimulate plant productivity and change litter chemistry. These changes in substrate availability may then alter soil microbial processes and possibly lead to feedback effects on N availability. However, the strength of this feedback, and even its direction, remains unknown. Further, uncertainty remains whether...

Bioclimate models incorporating topographic predictors as surrogates for microclimate effects are developed for Populus tremuloides and Picea engelmannii to provide the fine-grained specificity to local terrain required for adapting management of three Colorado (USA) national forests (1.28 million ha) and their periphery to climate change. Models were built with the...

Premise of the study: Modeling the contemporary and future climate niche for rare plants is a major hurdle in conservation, yet such projections are necessary to prevent extinctions that may result from climate change. Methods: We used recently developed spline climatic models and modifi ed Random Forests...

Spatial climate models were developed for Mexico and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961-1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-...

Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach,...

In 2003, Laricobius nigrinus Fender was introduced into the eastern United States as a biological control agent of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand). Following its release, it was discovered that L. nigrinus was hybridising and producing viable progeny with Laricobius rubidus...

The European winter moth, Operophtera brumata, is a non-native pest in the Northeastern USA causing defoliation of forest trees and crops such as apples and blueberries. This species is known to hybridize with O. bruceata, the Bruce spanworm, a native species across North America, although it is not known if there are hybrid...