All eyes on Saurashtra as first phase of Gujarat polls kicks off today

Dec 13, 2012, 12.31AM ISTTNN

Polling begins for the first phase covering 87 assembly seats in Gujarat on Thursday.

AHMEDABAD: Will winds of change — or parivartan — sweep Saurashtra and south Gujarat? As polling begins for the first phase covering 87 assembly seats in Gujarat on Thursday, all eyes are on Saurashtra, the real Kurukshetra, which will make or mar Narendra Modi's chances of completing a hat-trick of wins in Gujarat.

Such is the importance of Saurashtra that top BJP leaders say they are fighting two elections — one for Gujarat and the other for Saurashtra. Even Sonia Gandhi had addressed her first public meeting in Rajkot. Rahul Gandhi addressed two of his three public meetings on the last day of campaigning in Saurashtra.

A good show in the first phase will boost Modi's bid for the prime minister's post. The second phase, which will see 95 seats going to the polls on December 17, has many areas where the BJP is on a strong footing. Saurashtra sends 52 legislators to the state assembly. This peninsula has for long backed BJP — in fact the RSS set up its base in the state first in Rajkot. But unlike the two-party fights in previous polls, this time the politics of the region has a triangular battle among the BJP, the Congress and rebel BJP leader Keshubhai Patel's newly-formed Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP).

Simply put, Keshubhai holds the key to Modi's success — BJP's vote share can be dented if GPP manages to attract the influential Leuva Patel community in Saurashtra. Bringing Leuvas together is community leader Naresh Patel, who is behind Khodaldham temple that has struck an emotional chord within the community on the grounds that Modi has ignored them for a decade. Leuvas have taken the biggest share of tickets from the three main contenders as they are contesting on 52 of the 87 seats in the first phase. The Patel sub-caste, which is present in large numbers in Saurashtra and Surat, has obtained 21 tickets from the GPP, 17 from the BJP and 14 from the Congress.

So far, the 84-year-old Keshubhai has emerged as a gamechanger — or spoilsport as Modi would like to call him — putting the Gujarat chief minister on the defensive. Modi set aside his celebrated norepeat theory and repeated most candidates despite strong anti-incumbency lest they switched over to the GPP. Uncharacteristically, the BJP had even objected to the GPP getting cricket bat as a party symbol. The BJP is hoping Patels will not vote en masse on caste lines alone on D-Day, allowing them to hold on to a fair share of the 38 seats they presently control in Saurashtra. Also, Keshubhai's Patel card may push rival communities like the Kshatriyas closer to the BJP.

If the BJP falters in Saurashtra, relief may come from south Gujarat, where dissidence has left the Congress in disarray. Surat city could deliver a windfall for the BJP, thanks to delimitation. Choryasi, the biggest constituency in the city and a BJP bastion, has now been divided into seven seats — an icing on the cake for the ruling party. The Congress may continue to maintain its hold over the tribal-dominated Dang, Nizar, Songadh and Tapi but the extent of damage to the party due to rebellion would only be known after the elections.

Which way will the Patidars swing?

Every time Saurashtra goes to the hustings, political parties go all out to woo Patels, mostly Leuvas. Over the last few decades, they have pushed the erstwhile rulers — the Kshatriyas — to the margins of politics. Patidars, a conglomeration of various sub-castes of Patels, comprise about 20% of the state's population and have consistently held 20% to 26% of seats in the Gujarat assembly from 1960 onwards. No other social group has held a higher share of seats during this period. Their share of the seats increased from 19.6% to 26% in 1972. BJP's rise in Gujarat is largely attributed to Patel power — the community started gravitating towards the saffron party in retaliation to former Congress CM Madhavsinh Solanki's KHAM theory, which created a political axis of Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims. The 'telia rajas' or the oil lobby of Saurashtra, largely dominated by Patels, have acted as pressure points on state governments. If they swing Keshubhai's way, it may result in irreparable losses for the BJP. If they don't, the BJP may sweep the region.