Undoubtedly the irony will not be lost that the Germans appear to have considered the wider implications of the UK leaving more than the UK itself, despite us being by some distance the most Eurosceptic of all EU nations, a feeling promoted often by ill-disguised German-phobia. As yet we still haven't seen an official 'EU-exit' paper by the biggest Eurosceptic party in the UK.

Instead, as Mark B observes on the same blog piece, when it comes to all matters EU "[the UK's] political class have a tendency to talk to the electorate as if we
were like children. The "let's give them one last chance", sounds like a
mother warning their wayward child before punishment".

Onto the paper itself, regular readers will recognise many of the themes that run through the paper - themes which have been rehearsed many times on numerous Eurosceptic blogs - only in this case it has been fleshed out to 30 pages and largely concentrates on the impact on the EU of a UK exit.

What the paper acknowledges, far more than our own House of Commons research paper, are the problems the EU itself would face were the UK to leave. It's tempting to take an indifferent view to this, but the fact remains that it will still exist on our doorstop, and we would still have to trade and deal with it. Further exacerbating the EU's problems, and consequently the Eurozone, is not in our own self-interest given that circa 40% of our exports depend on it.

Tim Oliver specifically highlights three problems for the EU on UK exit. The first of these is that it will be unprecedented and until now "something of a taboo". As the report notes:

The withdrawals of Greenland in 1985 and Algeria in 1962 had prompted concerns they set precedents for the withdrawal of a member state, but as overseas territories they provided little by way of a guide to how an actual member state might withdraw.

Not only would the EU be concerned with future relations with the UK but far more pressing for itself and its own survival are internal problems and their resolution. The necessity to prop up a fragile Eurozone would be paramount but also, as the report notes, negotiations would need to take place within the EU to amend its own institutions, voting allocations, and quotas. These are issues which are rarely settled easily. Not least the EU budget which would need to be rebalanced, requiring inevitably more contributions from France and Germany undoubtedly to the dissatisfaction of their taxpayers.

There would also need to be decisions on changes to the system of QMV, so as to reflect the disappearance of the UK with its 29 votes. In the ensuing negotiations, all the nation states will be mindful of the numerous scenarios for how this could change the balance of power within the Council. Undoubtedly this would cause conflict and protracted negotiations between smaller states versus large states, northern countries versus southern ones, protectionist versus more liberal and so on. Given the enormity of the consequences and ramifications both economically and politically of the UK leaving and the uncertainty and vagueness of Article 50 one wonders whether it would better for a smaller country to leave first, ahead of the UK, as a kind of dry run.

The UK's 73 seats in the European Parliament would need to be redistributed. The report notes that the process of allocating seats has always been an unclear one, subject as it is to numerous formulas, solutions and political horse-trading. Depending on the date of a UK withdrawal arrangements may need to be put in place for British MEPs to leave the Parliament before the elections due in 2019.

Other institutional changes would mean the loss of an EU Commissioner, the loss of UK judges from the ECJ. Then the question would be whether English would remain the working language of the EU, as a UK exit would leave only Ireland and Malta remaining as the only countries where English is the official language. Given France's track record on that issue this would be in serious doubt - putting the Eurozone at further disadvantage in trading relations with the rest of the world. All of these problems leave us in no doubt that a new EU treaty would be required as changes have to be made to the founding treaties.

The second issue the EU faces is the lost of one of its biggest members. A country that provides an important link to the United States, a country that holds a unique position in the world and one that gives the EU extra credibility, as a member. The EU is bound to lose self-confidence, feel more isolated and probably move further towards protectionism as a result. It would also alter the balance of power within the EU...

A British withdrawal raises a whole host of possibilities about changes to the balance of power and leadership of the EU. A withdrawal could boost the Franco-German axis. This, however, ignores that both Paris and Berlin have often used London to balance the other, something London has often gone along with in the hope of turning the axis into a triangle. Even with other states such as Poland or Italy filling the UK’s place, we cannot overlook how the Franco-German axis has struggled to provide leadership thanks to the widening of the EU. The Franco-German axis and the wider EU have also struggled to adapt to Germany’s increasingly dominant position. The disappearance of a large state such as the UK, one often willing to use its weight to challenge EU thinking, could further embolden Germany’s position and agenda.

The final issue is how the EU deals with the UK after exit....

Despite what British Eurosceptics and Britain’s critics in the rest of the EU might wish, Britain and the EU will remain deeply interconnected. Indeed, the title of this paper itself highlights a common way of thinking that needs to be qualified: a withdrawal could never mean the end of Britain in Europe, only of the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. A withdrawal itself may take several years to action, and there exists the possibility of formal relations continuing afterwards in some way

Both the EU and UK would need to come to terms with the ongoing relevance each would have for the other. For the EU, the UK would remain a European power if not an EU-power. A European power that would remain part of the Commonwealth, the UN and NATO. If the UK leaves it sets a precendent, clearing the way for other members to do so thus unravelling quickly the project itself.

15 comments:

A very interesting article you have highlighted an aspect of the UK leaving the EU that I certainly had not thought about and judging by the lack of any mention of it as far as I can tell nor had many others. To me this is tremendously important because if the UK were to invoke article 50 the EU would probably be forced to concede much as they would be loathed to lose the UK. This would cause one of two effects the most likely is that so much repatriation of powers would be granted that it would win round a majority of eurosceptics to remain in the EU or the UK would be able to leave under very favourable conditions.

Agreed, what is often forgotten is the EU has just as much if not far more to lose than us if exit negotiations go very wrong. It's very possible if they get it wrong it could lead to the end of the project...

I thinki it's hilarious. I hope we actually get to that stage. The EU elite needs to be completely humiliated, then witness to its destruction and then brought to a Nuremburg style trial for crimes against England.

I really like "The EU is bound to ......feel more isolated....". I thought that was supposed to be us? Also, I wonder if Germany would raise the question of language again? When Austria joined there were voices saying that German had become the dominant language and should become the first language of the Parliament and documents.Then there is the question of - and principally for - Ireland. Would Ireland consider a parallel withdrawal?

Maybe, but on Ireland there's far less appetite for leaving the EU. That could change.

Ireland would have another problem in that they are in the Eurozone. There's a mechanism for leaving the EU, but there's no mechanism for leaving the Euro. I'm not suggesting that would make it impossible, but it's an added complication.

Batten's heart is in the right place, but he should have had the paper and his recent article in Freedom Today article peer-reviewed. There are some contentious fundamental points, however so long as the UK and EU commit to some genuinely constructive cooperation, the UK could summarily leave the EU without disruption to trade.

There would be a lot of disruption if the UK suddenly stopped contributing to the EU budget, and the UK government could well be sued, at home and abroad, by those that lost out through the discontinuation of patyment without due legal process.

Flexcit

EU quotes

"[There's no way Britain could accept that] the most vital economic forces of this country should be handed over to an authority that is utterly undemocratic and is responsible to nobody"(British Prime Minister Clement Attlee in response to the Schuman Plan 1950)

"We should frankly recognise this surrender of sovereignty and its purpose."(Edward Heath, Hansard, 17 November 1966)

“America would welcome it if Britain should apply for full membership in the [EEC], explicitly recognising that the Rome treaty was not merely a static document but a process leading towards political unification.”(George Ball Under-Secretary of State for JFK 1961)

"The single market was the theme of the Eighties; the single currency was the theme of the Nineties; we must now face the difficult task of moving towards a single economy, a single political unity".(Romano Prodi, 13 April 1999)

"Let's imagine Europe is a football club and you join, but once you're in it you can't say let's play rugby". (French foreign minister Laurent Fabius)

"We perform the duties of freemen; we must have the privileges of freemen ..."(Chartists 1836)

"The [Lisbon Treaty] is indeed a tidying -up exercise, it sweeps the rest of our sovereignty under the Brussels carpet".(Lord Pearson)"The Government’s guiding principle was...to swallow the lot and swallow it now."(Sir Con O’Neill, the British diplomat who led the UK’s negotiations for EEC membership under Heath)

"I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe."(Kenneth Clarke, Conservative Chancellor in International Currency Review Vol 23 No 4 1996)"The EU is the old Soviet Union dressed in Western clothes"(President Gorbachev)

"Europe's power is easy to miss. Like an 'invisible hand', it operates through the shell of traditional political structures. The British House of Commons, British law courts, and British civil servants are still here, but they have all become agents of the European Union implementing European law. This is no accident."(Mark Leonard co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think tank)

"We need to build a United States of Europe with the [EU] Commission as government".(Viviane Reding, EU Commissioner 2014)

"A supranational union is a multinational political union where power is delegated to an authority by member states".(Wikipedia)

“A coup d’état by a political class who did not believe in popular sovereignty”.(Tony Benn on the European Communities Act 1972)

"Once [WWI was over, countries] went back to rules & customs of parliamentary democracies. I felt out of my depth".(Jean Monnet, Father of EU')

"EU Parliament is incredibly responsive to lobbying institutions, but is unresponsive to public opinion".(Gisela Stuart, Labour MP 2009)"Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises".(Jean Monnet, Father of EU')

"I have lived in your future ….and it doesn’t work".(Russian dissident Vladimir Bukovsky on the EU)

"Determined to lay the foundations of an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe".(Treaty of Rome 1957)

"This Treaty marks a new stage in the process of creating an ever closer union..."(Maastricht Treaty 1992)

"This Treaty marks a new stage in the process of creating an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe".(Lisbon Treaty 2007)

"Never out on principle; never in on principle [regarding EEC membership]. It depends on the terms and whether it is best for Britain".(Labour leader Harold Wilson, May 1975)

"Now we've signed it - we had better read it"(Douglas Hurd, former Foreign Secretary on the Maastricht Treaty)"The supremacy of Community Law when in conflict with national law is the logical consequence of the federal concept of the Community"(H P Ipsen, 1964 - 9 years before the UK joined)

"[Norway] held a referendum [on the EU] that went the wrong way"(Douglas Hurd, former Foreign Secretary on the Maastricht Treaty)

"Public opinion will be led to adopt, without knowing it, the proposals we dare not present to them directly. All the earlier proposals will be in the new text, but will be hidden and diguised" (Valery Giscard D'Estang. on the Lisbon treaty)

"The Tories have been indulging in their usual double talk. When they go to Brussels they show the greatest enthusiasm for political union. When they speak in the House of Commons they are most anxious to aver that there is no commitment whatever to any political union."(Labour MP Hugh Gaitskell, October 1962)"It means the end of a thousand years of history."(Hugh Gaitskell - 1906-63, on a European federation; speech at Labour Party Conference, 1962)

"The Constitution is the capstone of a European Federal State."(Guy Verhofstadt, Belgian Prime Minister)'If it's a Yes we will say "on we go", and if it's a No we will say "we continue".'(Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Council)

“The substance of the Constitution is preserved. That is a fact.”(German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the Lisbon Treaty)

"I have read some of [the Lisbon Treaty] but not all of it." (Caroline Flint, former Minister for Europe)

"The primary reason why Britain entered into [EEC] negotiations was political, political in its widest sense."(Edward Heath, lecture at Harvard, 1967)

“They must go on voting until they get it right.”(Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission)

"If you go through all the structures and features of this emerging European monster you will notice that it more and more resembles the Soviet Union."(Russian dissident Vladimir Bukovsky)"The European Union is a state under construction."(Elmar Brok, Chairman of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs)

“I have never understood why public opinion about European ideas should be taken into account at all,”(French PM Raymond Barre)

“Let’s be clear about this. The rejection of the constitution was a mistake that will have to be corrected.”(Valéry Giscard d’Estaing)

“The 'no' votes were a demand for more Europe, not less.”(Romano Prodi, former President of the European Commission)"I don’t want an ‘in or out’ referendum because I don’t think out is in Britain’s interests.”(David Cameron, who won't hold a referendum because he thinks he'll lose)

"In Brussels one says "member state". You may imagine it means the same thing as country or state, but "member state" does not. Note that adjective. Member modifies state. Like "wooden" modifies "leg". The noun stays the same, but the essence of the thing is gone." (Mary Ellen Synon, Bruges Group Annual Conference 2013)

"No government dependent on a democratic vote could possibly agree in advance to the sacrifices which any adequate plan for European Union must involve. The people must be led slowly and unconsciously into the abandonment of their traditional economic defences, not asked…"(Peter Thorneycroft, former Tory MP)

"[Bailouts are] expressly forbidden in the treaties by the famous no-bailout clause. De facto, we have changed the treaty."(French Europe minister Pierre Lelouche)

"The transfer by the States from their domestic legal system to the Community legal system of the rights and obligations arising under the Treaty carries with it a permanent limitation of their sovereign rights... against which a subsequent act incompatible with the concept of the Community cannot prevail"(ECJ Case 6/64)

"[The EU Constitution represents] a visible move in only one direction...from intergovernmentalism to supranationalism...and this should be explained to the people of Europe"(Czech Republic President Vaclav Klaus)

"The European Parliament is a caucusing body that is incredibly responsive to lobbying institutions, but it is completely unresponsive to public opinion."(Gisela Stuart, Labour MP June 2009)

“Millions of people in this country will feel as I do, that legislation passed in this way, with no consent, cannot command the assent of the country and would lack moral and constitutional validity."(Douglas Jay MP during 2nd reading of European Communities Bill 1972)

"It is an illusion to think that [EU] states can hold on to their autonomy."(Hans Tietmeyer, head of the Bundesbank 1991)"...within ten years 80% of our economic legislation, perhaps even fiscal and social as well’ would come from the EU."(Jacques Delors, President of EU Commission 1988)

"The huge cost of the Common Agricultural Policy to taxpayers and consumers far outweighs any benefit to them..."(Memo by MAFF to House of Lords European Communities Committee 1995)

"...we must now face the difficult task of moving towards a single economy, a single political unity."(Romano Prodi, President of EU Commission 1999)

"The day of the nation state is over."(Roman Herzog, German president, 1996)

"The European system of supranationality comes at the cost of democracy."(Lord Leach of Fairford)

"The [EU] Council of Ministers will have far more power over the budgets of member states than the federal government in the United States has over the budget of Texas."(Jean-Claude Trichet, current head of the European Central Bank)

"One must never forget that monetary union, which the two of us were the first to propose more than a decade ago, is ultimately a political project. It aims to give a new impulse to the historic movement toward union of the European states"(Giscard d’Estaing, who drafted the EU Constitution 1997)

"The process of monetary union goes hand in hand, must go hand in hand, with political integration and ultimately political union. EMU [economic and monetary union] is, and always was meant to be, a stepping stone on the way to a united Europe"(Wim Duisenberg, first president of the EU Central Bank)

"Once the interlude of [WWI] was over, [countries] all went back to the rules and customs of traditional parliamentary democracies. I felt out of my depth."(Jean Monnet 'Father of Europe')

"We need to build a United States of Europe with the [EU] Commission as government."(Viviane Reding, EU Commissioner 2014)

"We had imagined a political 'grand design', a new international order..."(Jean Monnet 'Father of Europe')

"I like the English style of life. I feel more at home here in London"(Tintin creator, Belgian born Herge)

"We are not forming coalitions between States, but union among people"(Jean Monnet, 'Father of Europe')

"The sovereign nations of the past can no longer solve the problems of the present: they cannot ensure their own progress or control their own future. And the Community itself is only a stage on the way to the organised world of tomorrow."(Jean Monnet, 'Father of Europe')

"That such an unnecessary and irrational project as building a European super-state was ever embarked on will seem in future years to be perhaps the greatest folly of the modern era. And that Britain . . . should ever have become part of it will appear a political error of the first magnitude."(Lady Thatcher, Statecraft)

"There is no question of Britain losing essential national sovereignty”(Ted Heath)

Euro quotes

"Euro has done more to enforce budgetary discipline in rest of Europe than any number of exhortations from IMF or OECD". (Nick Clegg, 2002)"We're happy to give the Greeks anything, just not money".(German MEP Markus Ferber 2010)

"The Euro has been a rock of stability... Joining the single currency would be a major step".(Labour MEP, Richard Corbett, 2009)"The single currency... marks stability and growth and is crucial to high levels of growth and employment". (Tony Blair 1998)

"Staying out of the Euro will mean progressive economic isolation for Britain". (Peter Mandelson, 2003)

"The European Union must take a decisive step towards a federal economic government, with common fiscal policies and a larger budget, if it is to save the euro".(Andrew Duff Lib Dem MEP 2011)

"A European currency will lead to member nations transferring their sovereignty over financial and wage policy as well as monetary affairs".(Hans Tietmeyer, head of the Bundesbank, 1991)

The single currency is the greatest abandonment of sovereignty since the foundation of the European Community: the decision is of an essentially political nature".(Felipe Gonzalez, a Spanish former PM, 1998)

"The euro area now represents a pole of stability for those countries participating in it by protecting them from speculation and financial turmoil. It is strengthening the internal market and contributing to the maintenance of healthy fundamental figures, fostering sustainable growth".(European Council conclusions, 2001)

"We must enter the euro with a clean sheet on all the criteria".(Then Greek Finance Minister, Yannis Papantoniou, 1999)

"The reality of the euro has exposed the absurdity of many anti-European scares while increasing the public thirst for information. Public opinion is already changing…as people can see the success of the new currency on the mainland".(Kenneth Clarke MP, 2002)

"The euro is a great success, and in today’s global economy, the pound is no longer an important currency. If we are not careful, we could become like Iceland in the next financial crisis".(BT Group Chairman, Sir Michael Rake, 2009)

"I think the eurozone has turned the corner".(Then French Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, 29 January 2011)

"I believe that, within the next twelve months, we will have averted contagion and stabilised the eurozone".(German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, 30 December 2011)

"We cannot be members of the single market without being part of the single currency, the euro...In life, fighting for a minority view is sometimes dangerous and painful. But when you know you are right, and when so much of our national prosperity depends on it, we should expect our political leaders to act".(Virgin Group Chairman, Richard Branson, 2000)

"We are writing to make clear our concerns about the implications for business if the Government rules out membership of the euro for the lifetime of this Parliament. Such a decision would be damaging for British-based businesses, British employees and the British economy as a whole". (WPP Group CEO, Sir Martin Sorrell, et al., 2003)

"A single currency, introduced at the appropriate time, will reduce costs for businesses that trade or invest across Europe...More investment in growing businesses means more employment".(Then BP Chairman, Lord David Simon, 1997)

"Joining the euro would increase our incomes and thus our standard of living...Now the countries of Europe have taken one more step towards making a truly unified market, using only one currency. If again we delay joining, we again risk falling further behind".(Former Energy Secretary, Chris Huhne, former CBI Director General, Lord Adair Turner, et al., 2002)

"Staying out of the euro will mean progressive economic isolation for Britain. It will mean fewer foreign businesses investing here, fewer good jobs being created and less trade being done with our European partners".(Former Business Secretary, Lord Peter Mandelson, 2003)

"Britain should join the euro within the next few years in order to enhance British power and influence".(Centre for European Reform Director, Charles Grant, 2001)

"Joining EMU would offer multiple benefits...The euro would be good for jobs".(Then TUC Secretary General, John Monks, 2003)

"As time goes on, people will increasingly see that there is a price to be paid for remaining outside the euro".(Former Labour Party leader, Neil Kinnock, 2002)

"The euro may well come to be regarded in the coming years as part of the answer to saving the City from permanent decline. It was easy to dismiss the fledgling euro as a ‘toilet currency’ before we realised our own economic growth was built on sand".(Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, 2009)

"Obviously joining a currency that everybody in Europe - including soon all the new European Union members - are using, a currency that American and Japanese and overseas businesses understand, has to make sense".(Then UK Europe Minister, Denis MacShane, 2003)

"The euro, despite gloomy predictions from anti-Europeans, has proved to be a success".(Former Lib Dem leader, Charles Kennedy, 2002)

"In reality the economic integration between Britain and the Continent is so close, and we have confirmed this because we all belong to the common market, that it can't be good in the long run to stay out of such a cardinal element as the currency union".(Then German Finance Minister, Hans Eichel, 2002)

"There are no real benefits and some real costs to the UK of monetary independence... it makes sense from a financial stability perspective for the UK to contract out monetary policy to the ECB".(Citigroup Chief Economist, Willem Buiter, 2007)

"Taking part in EMU would improve policy and performance enough to eliminate many of the strains that sceptics predict would emerge without the safety valve of devaluation".(BBC Trust Vice Chairman, Diane Coyle OBE, 1997)

"The euro is like a breastplate that will become more and more resistant. The stability of the currencies within its area is without question".(Then EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Yves Thibault de Silguy, 1998)

"The strict rules attached to the euro could emerge as one of the best ways to persuade the markets that we will put Humpty Dumpty back together again, put the public finances in order".(Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, 2009)

"The question of entering the euro is worth a lot more to Britain than the wild anti-federalist fantasies peddled by those who think Britain should have nothing to do with Europe. Nobody of any consequence in Europe wants to create a federal super-state".(Former Business Secretary, Lord Peter Mandelson, 2003)

The British Government Knew The Consequences In 1971

...the transfer of major executive responsibilities to the bureaucratic Commission in Brussels will exacerbate popular feeling of alienation from government. To counter this feeling, strengthened local and regional democratic processes within the member states and effective Community regional economic and social policies will be essential.Parliamentary sovereignty will be affected as we have seen. But the need for Parliament to play an increasing (if perhaps more specialised) role may develop. Firstly, although a European Parliament might in the longest term become an effective, directly elected democratic check upon the bureaucracy, this will not be for a long time, and certainly not in the decade to come. In the interval, to minimise the loss of democratic control it will be important that the British Parliamentarians should play an effective role both through the British membership in the European Parliament and through the processes of the British Parliament itself.