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Monday, January 14, 2013

Why the Golden State Warriors playoff hopes rest with Andrew Bogut

As their recent losses to the
Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets suggested, the Warriors, well…they are who we thought they
were! They have some of the best shooters in the league, no doubting that.
The backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can hit a dozen threes before
you even know what hit you. Even Harrison Barnes has proven of late to be good
for the occasional shot from behind the arc. Then there’s Jarrett Jack who
sometimes forgets the half-court line isn’t the three-point line…but makes it anyway.

Of course, there’s the foundation
of David Lee, who should be a 2013 All Star. 20 points and 11 rebounds per
game, D-Lee is an incredibly well-rounded scoring weapon and playmaker. Just
when the opposition locks him down on the inside, he dishes to a shooter or steps
out for a 15-foot jump shot.

But the Warriors excel in
high-tempo games where Steph Curry can step up and hit threes or Klay sits in
the corner waiting to drop daggers (Golden State has the 6th highest tempo in
the NBA). As the Grizzlies proved, when the tempo slows, the Warriors will
struggle. Two main reasons: 1) harder to get off in transition on made baskets
and 2) second chance points. The first point is self-explanatory but the second
is something that the Warriors have been able to cover up against weaker
competition—which, to their credit, is most of the NBA.

The Warriors gave up second chance
points to the Grizzlies because Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph were too much for
the Warriors to handle. They create mismatch problems; if Mark Jackson opts to
put his defensive stoppers on the floor (Draymond Green, Festus Ezeli, Andris
Biedrins), then he risks defenses locking in on the “Big Three” (Klay, Lee, and
Curry). If Jackson chooses to go small with Curry-Jack-Thompson-Landry-Lee,
which is a popular choice
the Warriors are nearly helpless on the inside. It’s a that will have a tough
time against the Spurs, Thunder, Grizzlies, and Clippers.

Some problems even arose against
the Trail Blazers, who had seventeen offensive
rebounds against Golden State in last Friday’s game. While their shooting
overcame that, it won’t against the best Western conference teams in the
playoffs.

This is why the Warriors need
Andrew Bogut.

Realistically, a playoff
appearance alone will excite a Warriors fan base that has been deprived of May
basketball for more than five years. But if they want to go further than a first
round exit—which is possible—Andrew Bogut will need to be there. He won’t be a “cure-all”
because for one, the Warriors have proven that they can do very well without
him. What he will be is an important piece that has been missing from the
puzzle. His size allows David Lee to take advantage of mismatches (take smaller
forwards inside and taller big men outside of the lane). Most importantly it
adds a tremendous defensive presence and yet another way the Warriors can put
the ball in the bucket.

If he returns from injury and plays
anything like he did during his tenure in Milwaukee, Golden State can compete
with any team in the West (save maybe the defending conference champs). While I
originally
thought the Warriors matched up well against Memphis, their last meeting
proved there are challenges to overcome. And even though they have played the
Clippers well over the season series, a playoff matchup will allow Los Angeles
to exploit their weaknesses inside. I still believe that Steph & Co. match
up well against the Spurs…especially in a potential second round matchup (which
is likely unless the Warriors fall to the seventh spot in the West or San
Antonio drops a slot to Memphis). Put Bogut on Duncan and even ESPN might start
whispering upset.

Bogut is that combination of
offensive and defensive playmaking that the Warriors have starved for. In most
cases Mark Jackson is forced to choose between expecting scoring or stopping
from the center position—and thus far has made it work. But come the playoffs,
the top teams in the West will know what buttons to push against the Warriors;
and if the shots aren’t falling, it could cause some serious problems.

With a healthy Bogut, on the other
hand, a deep playoff run is very much within reach.

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