The Takeaway: What happened to Aceves?_BINARY_983691

Tim Britton

Wednesday

Apr 24, 2013 at 12:01 AM

BOSTON -- Juxtaposing the game to the weather might be the most clichéd way to write any game story lede. But oh what the heck: The only thing uglier than the weather on Tuesday night at Fenway Park was the baseball.

BOSTON -- Juxtaposing the game to the weather might be the most clichéd way to write any game story lede. But oh what the heck: The only thing uglier than the weather on Tuesday night at Fenway Park was the baseball.

On a cold, rainy night at Fenway, the Red Sox played their worst game of the young season. The Athletics drubbed Alfredo Aceves and Boston, 13-0, in a game shortened to seven innings by rain.

That rain delay may as well have been a mercy rule.

The question emerging from the evening is just what has happened to Aceves, and whether his continued presence on the roster remains tenable. It is fairly clear that manager John Farrell won't be running for president of any hypothetical Alfredo Aceves fan clubs -- speaking of clichés -- and the imminent returns of several different pitchers may make Aceves the odd man out he appeared to be way back at the start of spring training.

"There seemed to be a lack of focus," Farrell said. "It wasn't a good night."

***

In 2011, Alfredo Aceves was one of the most valuable pitchers on the Red Sox roster. While the rest of the Boston pitching staff collapsed in the final month of the season, Aceves was a rock. He threw 25 innings that September, allowing only five earned runs. He pitched on each of the last four days of the season, throwing a combined 7 1/3 innings to try to save Boston's season.

Entering the 2012 season, then, Aceves owned a career record of 24-3 with a 2.93 ERA over 240 innings. He had a WHIP of 1.083.

Since then, he's 3-11 with a 5.93 ERA.

How did he fall so far?

The answer is that Aceves may not have been quite that good to begin with. Fielding-independent pitching measures what you can reasonably expect a pitcher's ERA to be based off strikeouts, walks and home runs -- the three true outcomes over which a pitcher possesses the most control. And from 2008 through 2011, Aceves' ERA was consistently better than his FIP, suggesting a regression was in the works.

(Devoted readers might remember that we pointed out as much way back in our spring training dictionary at the beginning of last season.)

Well, Aceves has regressed even more than one would expect:

That's in part because of an increase in walk rate (from 7.3% of batters to 9.6%) and also because of an increase in batting average on balls in play:

This isn't all regression based off a shift in luck. Teams are hitting the ball harder off Aceves, as reflected by a higher line-drive percentage since 2011. He's also allowing far more home runs than he did during that season. But the magnitude of the gap is exaggerated because the results were greater than the performance in 2011.

***

What does this mean for Aceves' future with the team? The Red Sox currently have 11 pitchers on the roster, with Daniel Bard set to become No. 12 tomorrow. There is a fairly clear hierarchy.

Wilson and Bard have options. They can be sent down when Lackey and Breslow come back. When Hanrahan or Morales returns, though, the Red Sox will have to choose between Mortensen and Aceves. Aceves has the higher ceiling than Mortensen, but at least you know what Mortensen is. That's the danger with Aceves: He's just not consistent enough to be reliable as anything other than an innings-eater.

"It's varied, I will say that," Farrell said of his performances. "You'd like to think that there would be more of a known commodity in a given role, particularly in a starting role, when you've got five days to prepare for the next outing, which is work in between starts has been consistent. His preparation today was consistent with what it was prior to the game in Cleveland. Tonight wasn't one of his better performances."

***

After the game, Aceves was characteristically difficult to pin down. He said the conditions affected him, but that he couldn't blame them. He talked about the strike zone getting smaller from the third inning on, when evidence shows it didn't. And the most incendiary thing he said, when asked why the conditions didn't seem to bother Bartolo Colon as much, was "We got our hacks; why don't we hit?"

It's possible Aceves was throwing his teammates under the bus here. It's possible he meant these words at 100 percent face value. But I'm not 100 percent sure of that. Aceves' English isn't perfect, and I interpreted that line as more of a rhetorical thing, in the same vein as "That's baseball" or "It happens."

This isn't meant to excuse Aceves. His performance on the field, and that includes the instances in which he lacks focus and doesn't cover first as happened on Tuesday, is enough to justify getting rid of him at some point in the future. I'm just hesitant to crucify him based off words in a non-native language.

Twitter: @TimBritton

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