JP: Next time on Survivor ..maybe the worst thing out hereNatalie to Ashley: these black clouds scare meLiz: it's been raining for 48 hours Jaison conf: I have never in my life been this cold.Kelly: All our blankets are wet... there's nowhere around here to sort of hideLiz to Evil Russ: you were lying to me!Russ: Let me tell you, you're walking on thin ice!JP: Liz struggling to hang on!

THE ELEMENTS TAKE A HEFTY TOLL ON BOTH TRIBES AS HEAVY RAINSTORMS POUND AWAY AT THE ISLAND AND AT THE SPIRITS OF THE CASTAWAYS, ON "SURVIVOR: SAMOA" THURSDAY, OCT. 15"Walking On Thin Ice" — When a new power player emerges at Foa Foa, Russell desperately scrambles to regain control of the tribe, on SURVIVOR: SAMOA, Thursday, Oct. 15 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Russ H. has wanted Ashley out for a couple weeks now. Went with Jaison their last vote to get out Ben and smooth things over with the understanding Ashley was next. CBS is probably planting a seed of doubt with Liz to make it not so obvious that Ashley is going.

Jaison has been on Russell H's new hit list ever since the Ben boot, and has complained about the conditions for two episodes straight. He thought about quitting before the Ben vote, and said in Ep4 that coming on the show was the worst decision he's made in his life... how will 48 straight hours of rain make him feel? Liz also gets a soggy treatment in the Ep5 preview: Arguing with Russell H (didn't work out so well for Marisa or Betsy), complaining about the rain (fire is life, so water is the opposite), and "struggling to hang on" in what looks like the IC (in Probst's own words). Not good portents. And finally there's Ashley, who was Russell's first choice for a target in the previous Foa Foa tribal council visit. Compared to Jaison and Liz, she gets a relatively positive treatment in the preview (listening to Natalie worry about the looming dark clouds).

Of these, Jaison has proven his worth in the challenges, as has Liz to some extent. Ashley hasn't done much of anything. But it comes down to who Russell wants out the most. In Russell's negative energy strategy, forcing Jaison to stick around when he clearly doesn't want to be there works to Russell's advantage, plus he's relatively loyal. But it's hard to tell who Russell would want out between Russell and Ashley.

With respect to alleged spoilers, missyae has two, possibly three, stories:(1) missyae 10/4/09 12:45 a.m. "The next player that will be booted from Foa Foa when they go back to Tribal will be Ashley Trianer."(2) missyae 10/8/09 2:43 a.m. (see also the reply, three posts down) "Okay the way I am told the events happen is after Yasmin is voted out this week - Russell Swan goes down during a challenge - then Ashley is voted out for Foa Foa."

Clearly, both can't be true. When we pointed out that the second story doesn't make sense, since EW (reasonably) explicitly states that the next (and last) medical evacuation takes place in Ep6, not Ep5, he responded with:(3) missyae 10/8/09 4:01 p.m. "When Russell goes down in the challenge - Foa Foa had a lead and thought they had it won. BOTH tribes go to Tribal Council and sit and talk with Jeff and NOBODY is voted out." This actually makes even less sense - unless they do something crazy and do double boots in the jury phase (which has never been done, and would require two votes at tribal council, and so is highly unlikely), the show needs to shed three people in the next two episodes, not just one (or two), in order to have the final five in the finale on Sunday, December 13 (as the CBS Fantasy rules state).

So something is still amiss. A fourth story emerged later (just prior to Ep4):(4) missyae 10/8/09 5:28 p.m. "Yasmin is tonight. After that the next person to be voted out when Foa Foa goes to Tribal is Ashley. Russell S is the player to go down in the challenge everyone is talking about. He is the medivac. After he leaves they have both tribes meet at Tribal and I was told it was very boring and they knew nobody was leaving so it was a waste of time. But anyway - when that happens - nobody is voted out at that Tribal. They merge at 8 Galu and 4 Foa Foa." Note that there's now a mystery Foa Foa person disappearing somewhere in the next two episodes (Alien abduction? The Rapture?), since Ashley is the only one mentioned being booted, and Foa Foa currently has six members. Although at least the Ashley-Russell S. order now makes sense. Small victories.

But there are also some (admittedly vague) contradictory notes concerning Ashley's allegedly imminent departure, Redmond at Sucks reports a rumor that both alternates (Ashley and Erik) "went far." True, two weeks into the show might be construed as reasonably far. Hard to say.

That makes it unanimous then as Blows and TDT went Ashley, as does the missyae spoiler.

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"I can't speak for production, but I really like that people see us when we're traveling around the world. If you're a fan of the show, ... you're going to be more excited because you want to see what happens."Phil Keoghan

and many thanks to anyone who can jump in and help update tonight's show here!

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"I can't speak for production, but I really like that people see us when we're traveling around the world. If you're a fan of the show, ... you're going to be more excited because you want to see what happens."Phil Keoghan