UFC 166 Main Card Predictions

John Dodson (14-6) vs. Darrell Montague (13-2)

Montague is a very welcome addition to the UFC’s relatively thin flyweight division. He’s finished ten of the thirteen opponents he’s beaten and is on a four-fight winning streak, indicating he actually has what it takes to belong instead of just being brought in to bolster the talent pool. However, drawing Dodson will test Montague’s abilities to swim with sharks right away. The Ultimate Fighter 14 winner has TKOs of T.J. Dillashaw and Jussier Formiga inside the Octagon and nearly took champ Demetrious Johnson out when they met in January. Expect a competitive clash, but one Dodson walks away from with his hand raised due to superior speed and striking. / PREDICTION: John Dodson def. Darrell Montague via Unanimous Decision

Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7) vs. Shawn Jordan (15-4)

Jordan’s recent run of back-to-back knockouts over Mike Russow/Pat Barry is respectable to be sure but Gonzaga poses a threat unlike any “The Savage” has encountered thus far in his career. Jordan was out-grappled by Cheick Kongo in an ugly decision defeat, so expect Gonzaga to employ a similar approach by pushing Jordan up against the cage or keeping him down on the ground. Jordan hasn’t shown much flash in either area and will be fully reliant on landing a big punch to bring home the win. / PREDICTION: Gabriel Gonzaga def. Shawn Jordan via TKO

Gilbert Melendez (21-3) vs. Diego Sanchez (24-5)

If this rumble isn’t in the running for “Fight of the Night” it would be a Texas-sized shock. Both men are aggressive grapplers who are happy to strike instead of relying on takedowns to procure victory. Also noteworthy, in 53 combined clashes neither has ever been finished inside the cage (with a cut-based stoppage in Sanchez’s bout with B.J. Penn serving as the only time either has fallen outside of a decision). Their showdown should be both beautiful and brutal, giving fans reason to sit on edge while action plays out. Melendez’s slight advantage in the wrestling department may be all he needs to eke out a victory, but other than that it’s a coin flip in terms of trying to lock down a winner. / PREDICTION: Gilbert Melendez def. Diego Sanchez via Split Decision

Daniel Cormier (12-0) vs. Roy Nelson (19-8)

Interestingly enough, Cormier has yet to face a foe with Nelson’s skill-set despite owning some impressive past wins such as those against Antonio Silva, Frank Mir, and Josh Barnett, as "Big Country" is an apt grappler with widely-respected boxing and knockout power. It should also be pointed out that Cormier is at around 225 pounds – the lightest of his career – as part of his preparation to eventually move down to light heavyweight. With Nelson’s weight advantage and abilities, “Big Country” has a significant chance of delivering the first defeat of Cormier’s career as long as he can keep the former Olympian from pushing him against the fence or repeatedly scoring takedowns. Otherwise, it should be a boringly easy evening for Cormier en route to a decision. / PREDICTION: Daniel Cormier def. Roy Nelson via Unanimous Decision

Cain Velasquez (12-1) vs. Junior dos Santos (16-2)

The UFC jumped the gun on booking the third fight between Velasquez/Dos Santos but it’s a forgivable sin considering the excellence both bring to the table. Velasquez’s wrestling prowess is supported by fast hands and ever-evolving technique, while Dos Santos’ boxing is among MMA’s best and his power has put plenty of high-level opponents to sleep. Though Dos Santos knocked Velasquez out in their initial encounter, Velasquez’s victory over Dos Santos was equally convincing based on the five-round beating he handed “Cigano”. This go-round is more likely to resemble the latter with Velasquez potentially getting a finish. His takedowns are too good for Dos Santos to stop with consistency and the Brazilian will have a hard time matching Velasquez’s speed when it comes to stand-up exchanges. / PREDICTION: Cain Velasquez def. Junior dos Santos via TKO

If you’re a fan of heavyweight action, chances are good you’ve already got a spot on the couch reserved for the PPV portion of UFC 166. Saturday night’s lineup boasts three tilts between big boys including champion Cain Velasquez defending his belt against former title-holder Junior dos Santos, not to mention bouts featuring Darrell Montague-John Dodson and Gilbert Melendez-Diego Sanchez. All in all, it’s an event sure to entertain with a main card certain to produce more than one performance-based bonus. (Photos by USA Today Sports Images)

I have to disagree that JDS will have trouble matching Velasquez’s speed in the stand up exchanges. Juniors hands are lightening. I LOVE Cain but I can’t help but think that Junior took him a little lightly in their second fight and will work harder to keep his range. Cain is a beast but I also find it hard to believe that he’ll be able to stay away from Juniors power for another fight. This is a fight between 1 and 1a. It really could go either way but I’m picking JDS to catch Cain inside if 3 rounds. Either way I won’t be disappointed. Both are great!!

Agree with all the picks for the main card, I am still on the fence for Gonzaga and Jordan though as Gonzaga has shown flashes of brilliance but also flashes of why he is a gate keeper. Jordan has more upside but if he cant stop Kongo from outgrappling him Gabe should have no problem…..right?

JDS by KO in the second-Cormier by decision-Diego by decision-Jordan by KO in the first-Dodson by KO in the second-Boetsch by man strength-Lombard by KO in the first-Kaufman by big sister beatdown-Noons by KO in the third-Ferguson by murder in the first-Amagov by amazing exhibit of potential-Fili by whatever he wants-and Kyoji by dynamic Japanese hidden moves

Jordan – TKO
I like Gabe, but 6-7 losses by KO/TKO doesn’t speak well for him. And Jordan may not be pretty but he’s a finisher.

Sanchez – UD
This is a tough one as I don’t particularly care for either fighter, but I think Diego’s scrambles are highly underrated and his wild striking is gonna cause problems for the more technical Melendez.

JDS – TKO
I just can’t get behind Cain. Maybe it’s the lack of personality or the racist tattoo, but I just don’t like the guy. Now I’m not saying he’s not capable of putting a beat down on a healthy JDS, I just don’t think he’s going to. As long as JDS isn’t afraid to stay in the pocket, I think he clips Cain and finishes him before the third round.

Cormier would be the best win of Roy’s career by a pretty wide margin… not gonna happen.

If Cain comes in with a bum knee & carrying extra weight, JDS will have the upper hand. But if he’s healthy, Cain’s constant pressure will again prevent JDS from being able to get comfortable & set up his boxing, and I agree with Brendhan’s prediction of a TKO finish.

I mean, I get it. When anyone hears “white pride” their mind immediately goes to the white supremacy movement. Thanks to decades of ignorant & hateful behavior, led by but certainly not limited to radical groups like KKK and Neo-Nazis, the term “white pride” became branded with obvious negative connotations.

So with that in mind, Cain’s chest might be taunting the rest of us with views of Hispanic/Latino supremacy. That’s how this stuff works, right? And so since a white fighter can’t get away with it (due to the attached historical context), neither should any other race. That’s a double standard, dangnabbit!

You successfully answered your own question-I have a tat on my back of San Fran Pride in the exact same old english lettering as Cain has on his chest that I got when I was 17 while incarcerated in Oregon and I have had to defend myself in numerous ways over the years everytime I took my shirt off, I am now 41 and don’t regret any part of my life-I am proud to be a white man who grew up breakdancing and strutting and robbing and standing up for my beliefs and culture-nuff said

And my point is that (white) people try to claim double standard about things that are very dissimilar if you look beyond the surface & attempt to understand the historical context. Obviously just my opinion though.

Proud of my historic city and area-the world renowned Barbary Coast-birthplace of the Hell’s Angels-Black Panthers-and the most vicious freedom fighter gangs the world has ever seen-we make the Gangs of New York look like half asses at best-do some research

For the record, I only mentioned it as one of the reasons I’m not a fan of his. I wasn’t baiting anyone. Personally, I have a problem with anyone being proud of their race, gender, sexuality, or ethnicity. Not because there’s anything wrong with those things, but because Pride should be associated with accomplishment. No one chooses to be Black or Female or Gay, you just are. It’s not a goal you set and then reach.
Should Cain be proud of being the son of an immigrant farm laborer who made his way up the ranks of the fastest growing sport to sit atop it as the undefeated, undisputed champion of the world? Hell yes! He achieved something great against the odds and has every right to take pride in that. But he didn’t accomplish being Mexican (which is what Cain has stated the tattoo means) so taking pride in his skin color IS racist.
Is it the main reason I don’t like him? Not at all. I just find him to be an extremely boring personality. He’s more lifeless than GSP in a Nos commercial. I like my superstars to have pizazz.

Now, I’m not trying to “bait” anyone so ya’ll don’t need to respond to this, it’s just my opinion….
you could respond to the email I sent you though Richard.

Email? Didn’t realize I had an email on file here but checked my profile thingy and see what I used to sign up with… fire away and I’ll look for an email if you’re still interested in contacting me.

So anyway, I didn’t mean to call you out with my comment about you baiting me… more of a light comment about how we go back & forth, and I tend to have to respond. But on a more serious tone, you gotta realize when you use the term “racist” it’s going to elicit a reaction. And me being me, I’ll ramble on a bit more on the topic…

With Cain, I doubt his intention with the tattoo was to celebrate the fact his skin is brown. Or that he happened to be born in a certain country. It’s about what it represents. When a U.S. soldier gets a tat that includes an American flag, they aren’t saying “Hell yes! My parents were within the borders of the United States when I popped out!” It goes way beyond that. And I’m a white American that says, “hell yeah!… I get it.” I love what Tim Kennedy represents and appreciate the sacrifices he’s made for our country.

Before I digress too much… with Cain my perception of his tat is that it’s a representation of his pride in his heritage/culture/where he came from. The dude was born in California & went to college in Arizona… which belonged to Mexico before the U.S. bought them. And nowadays if you have brown skin and are passing thru (or live in) Arizona it’s best to avoid police contact, or be prepared to explain why you’re there and that you’re not an illegal alien in the place your recent ancestors owned before the U S of A.

Long story short, I can understand why the Hispanic community would want to celebrate/maintain their culture that has largely been stamped out already within U.S. borders, and political movement continues to threaten (which is also subjective). So yeah, I’ll stop there but will respectfully disagree with the assessment that Cain’s tattoo is racist.

I was just pointing out his actual weight but you might be right, AO. Cain is this much farther removed from surgery on both his knee (ACL) and shoulder (rotator cuff) so it’s possible his overall physical condition is that much better now. Kind of a scary possibility for the rest of the HW division.