not that i'm discounting Dwight leaving, but if you're a reporter, where's the money in saying he's staying? notice that no one has said "sources tell me that he's set on Houston." they're saying "sources tell me that he has not committed to la and is going to listen to other offers."

i'll get more worried when someone even semi-credible (i.e., not a message board insider) says Dwight is definitely going to a team that isn't the lakers. until then, i'm cynical. Dwight staying in la is the most boring story an author could tell.

The issue is two fold IMHO.... First, it will be nearly impossible to build a complete team around Howard if Kobe is extended or re-signed next year. It puts 10 to 15 million (at least IMO) in a player that will be gone in a year or two. Also, even if Kobe leaves it will be difficult to fill out a roster in just one offseason with the type of players Howard needs to exploit his few offensive talents. Getting the guy who can close games and take the pressure off of him is paramount.... and we can't do that until at least a year after he makes his decision if at all.

Second, Does Howard really want to be the leader? I've always had a feeling that he loves playing the game and loves the attention but doesn't really enjoy the focus on his "on court" game. The way he brushes off his free throw shooting and lack of development of a post game is indicative of that IMO. He may feel a the brightest spotlight in the league on him and not want it all alone when Kobe is gone. His actions in Orlando when they didn't build on the one finals trip was always to deflect it to the front office, point guard, shooters or whomever....

I still think he stays..... but I don't think he'll do it without dragging the organization through a pretty scary period in doing so. He may demand certain personnel changes or promises as a condition. Our position of strength is the extra year and money..... but as I've noted before taxes negate quite a bit of that and that argument pre-supposes he doesn't get resigned for that extra year and then some anyway.... Our position of weakness is the current roster and the CBA's lack of any flexibility to build the team he needs in a timely manner. His decision will be interesting to say the least.

"If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill

“The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present - and is gravely to be regarded."Dwight Eisenhower

"Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"Thomas Sowell

Howard would have to be ridiculously short sighted to sign with any team other than LA.

Give up all of the inherent business opportunities of Los Angeles... Give up a guaranteed 30 million off of back surgery...And give up the chance to play with two or more superstars in the most glamorous city on the West Coast?

For Harden/Lin/Parsons?

Really?

The bigger threat would be if Atlanta could pry Chris Paul out of Los Angeles. If Paul signs in Atlanta, I'd expect Howard to sign there as well.

Dwight Howard could very well leave for Houston. I'm not saying it's going to happen. LA is still confident they will be able to keep him but there is a lot of stuff going on in LA right now. Dwight could elect to leave for Houston because what he would do is, everyone has made a big deal about he could sign for 5 years 118 mil with LA or with another team for 4 years 88 mil. What people forget to take into consideration is, you can go to a Houston, sign a 3 year deal and then re-up for the max and you basically will end up not losing as much money as everybody thought. Not only that, in Houston, the state of Texas, no state income tax. You're saving money that way as well.

How much is the back a concern?

Not much. He played through it last year, he'll be better this year. To me, just my opinion, I believe in order for Dwight to be definitive about staying with LA, Jim Buss needs to move aside, Jeanie needs to take over the Lakers period. ... From what I'm told, Jeanie handles business. If she takes over, Phil is coming back, D'Antoni is gone and Dwight stays. If that isn't the case, it's up for grabs as to what will happen. 50/50 proposition whether he stays or goes. Phil Jackson is still apart of the Lakers equation. That door isn't closed.

therealdeal wrote:Howard would have to be ridiculously short sighted to sign with any team other than LA.

Give up all of the inherent business opportunities of Los Angeles... Give up a guaranteed 30 million off of back surgery...And give up the chance to play with two or more superstars in the most glamorous city on the West Coast?

For Harden/Lin/Parsons?

Really?

The bigger threat would be if Atlanta could pry Chris Paul out of Los Angeles. If Paul signs in Atlanta, I'd expect Howard to sign there as well.

Over the course of a 6 year deal who do you see as these two other "Super Stars".... keep in mind that we may have a different definition of "Super Star" here......

Unless the salary cap starts jumping huge amounts I don't see how we can build a team in just one offseason much less lure two "Super Stars" here AND fill the other 6 to 8 roster spots with the needed role players and depth to make a legit run at a championship over the course of his contract.

You first degrade the Houston possibility then say you could see him signing to play with Paul in ATLANTA!? That town can't even sell out 7th games of playoff series much less get an endorsement deal for one of their players. Houston at least has a history of supporting their team and Harden is about as good as Paul is right now in terms of leading (or lack there of) when it really counts. I know everyone loves Paul and hates Harden but in terms of success and leadership they're pretty equal IMO. The difference is that Harden isn't finished developing.... Paul is and has some injury history that may limit him from now on.... The jump to Atlanta would be a real surprise for me regardless of who else they can get.

If it were me I'd be lured to Houston before anything in Atlanta. I still think it's 70%-30% he stays, but I think it will be painful for the front office and the fan base in the process.

"If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill

“The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present - and is gravely to be regarded."Dwight Eisenhower

"Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"Thomas Sowell

Stephen A has fallen off a bit with his sources in recent years...he correctly predicted the 3 clowns teaming up in Miami and the Chris Paul/Dwight Howard package trade to Lakers before Stern vetoed one of them. But hes been pretty off since. He was 100% sure that Kobe would ask out in DEC 2011, he said Pau Gasol would be traded around the 2012 trade deadline, he said Dwight wont be back till Jan/Feb, he said Dwight wants out and Lakers are probably looking to trade him in 2013 trade deadline and now this...I think Kobe, Dwight, Lakers have pretty much shielded him from any info and he's just speculating out of control now

While I know most fans hate jimmy, love Jeanie, wish for Phil and cringe with MDA I would not want Dwight to stay if all that needed to happen. I don't want my FO to bow to pressure like that for a player that hasn't shown the ability to be the face of THIS franchise. I remember people wanted Buss to sell to Cuban, Mitch taken out to the deepest part of the ocean and dumped off, Phil traded in for Sloan or JVG and lets not forget to get the Kobe needs to pass the torch crowd.....

I don't always bring down the hammer but when I do it is usually to a troll! Stay TROLL FREE my freinds!

abeer3 wrote:come on, roo. i know you hate paul, but he's worth two hardens, imo. and you won't find many who would even put them on the same tier, much less equate them.

First I don't evaluate players based on what others think..... so I won't typically follow the pack on that. That much should be evident by my posts.

Results when it counts is what counts for me..... That's why Kobe is still in my top 2 in the league even when it's evident that his skills and athleticism have faded..... Melo is a probably a better scorer at this point but who would equate them on the same level?

As for Harden vs Paul. Paul is very overrated IMO. He cannot take a game over when the opposing team decides to take away the triple pick and roll and make him beat them. What is it now...... 4 playoffs where his teams have failed miserably when the opposing teams do that?

I also view his game in the same way I view Nash's.... it's a regular season effective/post season ineffective game for the most part. The 6' massively ball dominant one-way guard isn't really that valuable in the post season when teams can plan for them for 7 games. Make them the scorer and the rest of the team loses interest. Pretty plain to see if you look at the last two years or Nash's deep playoff runs. I don't value Harden any higher than Paul other than the fact he's still young and can fill in the gaps in his game. He also can win a game with his scoring and has done so a few times. Defensively they are equally ineffective as well.

I argued with several here last summer about Nash.... I was told that I was out of the "group" then as well. I was told that Nash could easily adjust to being the off side spot up shooter and that he didn't need the ball all of the time to be effective in the Princeton offense. That was so untenable that we rushed out and got the coach that made him the most successful......

Leadership..... As you like to say... Houston barely made the playoffs.... the Clips won a division. Clips have another pseudo Star... Houston doesn't. Both ended the season the same way and yet you would put one teams leader twice the others. That's how I define players..... not on Fantasy stats and popularity contests. Now adjust those results based on experience.... Paul's been his team's leader for 7 years... Harden got his first shot at it.

Harden's a jerk with an incomplete game.....Paul's a phony leader that uses his position in the league to cheat and has no success to his credit to warrant his "Super Star" status other than the league likes his look in commercials. Neither guy I'd want on the Lakers as the one to pair with Howard. The only caveat is that Harden can still develop. Paul is about at the peak and starting on the way down IMO.

So...... for the next 5 years I'd say they are about equal considering that Paul may be more valuable currently but Harden has a ton more upside at this point..... and if I'm playing with this person for 5 years I'd weigh the 3rd, 4th and 5th years a lot more than year one and two because what ever team it is will have to fill in around them for a year or two to be ready to realistically challenge.

"If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill

“The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present - and is gravely to be regarded."Dwight Eisenhower

"Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"Thomas Sowell

denimPortugal wrote:Oh God...please stay Dwight. But if he goes to Houston, Dallas,..., We are screwed and have no choice than keep Pau.

screwed? yes. in the short term. but i don't think they have no choice but to keep pau in that case. if anything, it could further motivate a pau trade, both to save money and find some youth. if dwight walks, i think the lakers will go into full tank mode. trade everyone and everything for picks and young players, tell kobe to take rehab easy, secure a high pick in next year's draft, and be ready to pounce on a big FA in 2014 or 15.

most importantly: we as laker fans need to accept that pretty much no matter what happens with dwight, next year isn't going to be great.

i hope dwight stays because i don't see the lakers duplicating his impact via FA in the next couple of years, but if he does walk, the lakers will have some options going forward.

so the whole argument is that harden might get better and paul will certainly get worse?

i don't think either premise is certain. harden might get hurt, or he might have stagnated (i think so, but we'll see). paul might not get hurt, and as long as he can stay on the floor, his game is sustainable (based on skill not athleticism).

and i've always agreed with your analysis re: pg-centered teams. they do rely too much on one guy, and that hurts them in the playoffs. but don't you think that houston basically ran phx's system with harden in a role more like a pg? their whole offense was predicated on him breaking things down and making plays for himself and others. when they faced a good defense several times in a row, he got exposed in that role and his team went down rather easily to a team missing a first or second team all nba player.

i don't see how paul (or a paul-based system) gets your wrath while harden (or a harden-based system) doesn't. the latter just seems like a younger but less effective version of the former to me.

so the whole argument is that harden might get better and paul will certainly get worse?

i don't think either premise is certain. harden might get hurt, or he might have stagnated (i think so, but we'll see). paul might not get hurt, and as long as he can stay on the floor, his game is sustainable (based on skill not athleticism).

and i've always agreed with your analysis re: pg-centered teams. they do rely too much on one guy, and that hurts them in the playoffs. but don't you think that houston basically ran phx's system with harden in a role more like a pg? their whole offense was predicated on him breaking things down and making plays for himself and others. when they faced a good defense several times in a row, he got exposed in that role and his team went down rather easily to a team missing a first or second team all nba player.

i don't see how paul (or a paul-based system) gets your wrath while harden (or a harden-based system) doesn't. the latter just seems like a younger but less effective version of the former to me.

What part of equally do not like don't you seem to understand? Where have I said I'd like Harden on this team.... I'm pretty sure I said I wouldn't want him here.

They are not the same type of player. Harden doesn't need 3 screens to get to the paint and create for himself or others. I actually value that over what Paul brings because it isn't predicated on a rigid offensive philosophy but at the same time his decision making and less than good play when it counts are serious reasons to take a pause with him.

Harden could get hurt..... so could Howard or Paul or anyone. Not sure how this is relevant other than there is a chance that anyone can get hurt. Paul is another story IMO. He has what was reported last year, as a bone on bone condition in his right knee. Since I've suffered with that condition myself I can tell you it doesn't get better. Paul is at the point where he's not going to get appreciably better. He is who he is. Harden may get better. This was his first shot at being the man and he didn't do a terrible job at it.... I think he did a lot better than Joe Johnson did when he made a similar move a few years back. So it isn't like he's a crap player. I know you seem to despise him but you at least have to acknowledge he had some level of success this year during the regular season. Again, based on what happened after the regular season and with expectations I'd say he held is own in that regard compared to what was expected out of the Clippers who are a team with more veteran leadership (Hill and Billups) more scoring off the bench (Crawford) and supposedly better defensively. Paul was unable to make any headway in the playoffs with a better team. At what point do people see that for what it is?

"If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill

“The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present - and is gravely to be regarded."Dwight Eisenhower

"Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it"Thomas Sowell

A team with Chris Paul on it doesn't have to be a Chris Paul centered team anyway. It can just be a part of the offense.

In 2011 when we acquired Chris Paul I didn't think about how this was now going to be a "Chris Paul" team. I thought "wow how are they going to defend our perimeter?"

In my case I said that Paul and Howard together on a team would be the only reason Howard should leave and I support that. Those two together would fit extremely well, hell that's why it was widely assumed we tried to unite them HERE. Outside shooting: check. Ability to run the pick and roll effectively: absolute check. The two things the PG of a team with Howard inside needs to do.

The Houston idea from Smith that Howard could just sign a deal in 3 years for the max is ludicrous. First of all, in 3 years his health is no guarantee. For a player who JUST came off of a year where his health was shaken to it's core (literally), financial security HAS to be a major thought. Second of all, in 3 years he'll be looking at 30 years old and likely will have peaked physically. Are the Rockets ready to give him a max contract heading into 35 years of age at likely at 20+ million per year? Hell no.

you think i hate harden when i simply think he's not as good as the hype.

i think you hate paul when you simply think he's not as good as the hype.

to me, the tiebreaker is public opinion. you'd be hard-pressed to find a gm, imo, who wouldn't trade harden for paul, age and injury history be damned.

also agree with realdeal regarding the 3rd year opt-out. the lakers can give him that, too, anyway. i hope dwight doesn't think he's as invincible as the media wants him to think. that last year matters, no matter how many times people try to diminish it. that's 30 million worth of security in a game where you can become a shell of yourself in one awkward landing.