Details

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall are 60 to 70% over western and southern WA.
For every ten autumn outlooks with similar odds to these, about six to seven of them would
result in above-average rainfall over these areas, while about three to four would be below
average.

Conversely, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall during April to June are 35 to 40%
in parts of the Kimberley. In other words, the chances of below average rainfall are 60 to
65% over this region.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently remains neutral, but the tropical Pacific is currently warming.
Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further warming of the tropical Pacific
is likely in the coming months, with most models approaching or exceeding El Niño
thresholds during the southern winter.

Sea surface temperatures around Western Australia, are expected to be near normal
to warmer than normal in the April to June period. These conditions may lead to increased evaporation and
atmospheric moisture, and thus potentially explain the wetter than normal outlook for parts of the west.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence is minimal during the first part of the outlook
period, with a neutral IOD likely for the second part.