Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport. If you're an elected official, political operative or anyone else upset at his views, don't go bothering LSUS or LSU System officials about that because these are his own views solely.
This publishes Sunday through Thursday with the exception of 7 holidays. Also check out his Louisiana Legislature Log especially during legislative sessions (in "Louisiana Politics Blog Roll" below).

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22.10.12

Impending race to show which Republican joins Court

Get ready for a unpredictable Supreme Court District 5 contest to
replace retiring Chief Justice Kitty Kimball where the
only thing predictable about it is the winner will be a Republican.

Judicial contests in Louisiana take on peculiar characteristics. Legally,
judges can’t organize their own campaigns but may have committees do so on
their behalf. The public perceives that the office cannot be overly political,
clinging to the idea that ideology should not affect decisions, which also
affects campaigning. As a result, these tend to be low-information affairs with
less issue guidance for voters, magnifying name recognition’s influence on the
vote. The effect becomes particularly acute when no incumbent runs for a spot
on the state’s highest court.

Thus the two most important factors in these are campaign money spent
and endorsements. Reviewing these factors for the five Republicans, two
Democrats and one no-party contestant in a district
roughly five-eighths white, one-third black with the majority of Democrats
blacks and majority of whites Republicans begins with whether a Democrat can
make it to the inevitable runoff.

Party organs of Democrats have thrown their support behind Judge John Michael Guidry of the 1st
Circuit Court of Appeals. This has not translated into much fund-raising appeal
as his committee has raised only about $50,000 – only half as much without own
funds as the other Democrat, trial attorney Mary Olive Pierson and the only
candidate running under a party label without judicial experience.

Neither has a chance of winning. As the only black Democrat in the
race, almost all white moderates and conservatives simply will not vote for
Guidry, and they likely comprise a majority in the district. Pierson with her
own bucks actually has raised more than any candidate save one, but all any opponent
has to publicize is her extensive involvement in the trials of Prisoner #03128-095
and his cohorts as well as her defense of a number of other high-profile
political figures accused of various malfeasances in office, and also report some
of her statements that identify her on the ideological left, and she hits a
ceiling of support well below 50 percent plus one vote.

But the obvious split in leftist/Democrat support for this pair must
worry beleaguered Democrat officials. A large segment of the black community
will get the word and successfully turn out for Guidry, but the large amount of
her own funds Pierson has committed could entice other liberal Democrats away,
producing a nightmare scenario where neither makes the runoff. That’s the last
thing that state Democrats need to reinforce their slide to becoming an
interest group supportive of one or another faction of Republicans.

The only reason that might not happen is because of the several,
well-funded Republicans going for the seat that will fragment the vote. Of them,
only 19th District Judge Tim Kelley, at about a fifth of this total,
and 1st Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Toni Higginbotham, at a little
over half of it, have not raised all told over $200,000, although both have
garnered the endorsement of local Republicans. She defeated him for her spot
last election. While yet two others from the 1st Circuit, Judges Jeff Hughes and Duke Welch, also have raised money
into this category, 19th District Judge Bill Morvant has compiled the most
impressive numbers in both metrics. Subtracting out personal funds injected
(none in his case), he has raised the most money and picked up the biggest
statewide endorsements.

Money gathered not from own sources acts as an important clue in these
races. Donors, whether individuals or entities representing individuals, where
they give to just a single candidate not only are sure votes for that one but
also serve as campaigners for the recipient, especially important allies in a
low-information contest largely devoid of ideological cues. Endorsements, which
in a race for a place on a statewide body usually have little impact, in this
kind of race do matter and act the same multiplying way.

Thus, Morvant has the most potential to take the Republican slot in the
likely GOP-Democrat runoff. However, in the only known poll
released of the contest in late September by the Pierson campaign put him tied
for last among the partisan candidates at 5 percent. But with the leading
Republican Higginbotham at just 14 percent, his resources make him a favorite
along with Higginbotham. Even though the poll might have been suspect in
partisanship for obvious reasons, as far as the relative strength of the
Republicans to their own kind it probably was pretty close to accurate.

Most of the undecided vote reflected in that poll are waiting for cues
courtesy of endorsements or campaign communications and will go the way of the
Republican candidates, while the numbers given for the GOP candidates reflect mainly
base voters unlikely not to vote for their choice. This makes a Morvant or
Higginbotham vs. Pierson or Guidry outcome the most likely. The most likely to
upset this balance would be Welch, who also got 5 percent in the poll but also
has the backing
of a number of trial lawyers and only recently switched from being a
Democrat. He possibly could ace out either side of the equation (most likely
denying Pierson, who got 18 percent in her poll, between the Democrats).

But with no candidate likely to get even a quarter of the vote, and more
than one a fifth or better, this race is wide open.

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