Numbers crunch: Oregon vs. BYU

As if March Madness didn’t present enough opportunities to waste time at work, the new FiveThirtyEight website has a neat interactive bracket that gives you the odds of every team advancing in the NCAA Tournament.

FiveThirtyEight gives Oregon a 65 percent chance to beat BYU and a 19 percent chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. Elsewhere, KenPom.com projects an 85-82 Oregon victory and Las Vegas likes the Ducks by five points.

These teams are almost mirror images, with Oregon being slightly better-looking. The Ducks are more efficient on offense and more disruptive on defense; BYU is a better rebounding team and scores more in transition.

BYU is a good offensive team, but it’s important to separate tempo from efficiency. The Cougars rank third nationally in scoring because they play faster than anyone in college basketball, averaging 13.9 seconds per possession. Roughly 32 percent of their shots come in transition, compared to 27 percent for Oregon.

It’s also important to note that none of these numbers account for the absence of forward Kyle Collinsworth, who suffered a knee injury in the West Coast Conference championship game against Gonzaga. Collinsworth is BYU’s leader in both rebounds (8.1) and assists (4.6) and ranks second in scoring at 14 points per game.

Oregon coach Dana Altman downplayed Collinsworth’s absence, saying teams usually rally in the first game after a significant injury. That might have been a message to the Ducks more than a statement based in fact; you’d think the first game after a major injury would be the hardest, since it’s the first exposure for players in new roles.

At any rate, Collinsworth’s injury is the biggest variable for either team since they met in December. It hurts the Cougars in several ways but does make them slightly more dangerous in one regard: Collinsworth, a 57-percent foul shooter, was the biggest culprit behind BYU’s mediocre free-throw percentage.

One key for Oregon, looking back at the first matchup: Make Tyler Haws take tougher shots. Haws scored 32 points and went 13-for-21 in that game, hitting 12 of his 17 attempts inside the arc. The Ducks referenced his mid-range game on Sunday — Johnathan Loyd called it “vicious” — but the numbers say those are exactly the shots Oregon wants Haws to take.

Haws is shooting 39.8 percent on two-point jumpers for the season, compared to 41.1 percent on three-pointers. If you factor the extra value of a three-pointer, it’s not really close. So Oregon shouldn’t mind if Haws takes mid-range jumpers, as long as the Ducks do a better job defending them this time around.

Austin Meek came to The Register-Guard via The Topeka Capital-Journal and Kansas City, Mo., home of the Chiefs, Royals and America's best barbecue. Now he covers the Ducks in TrackTown USA, but any subject is fair game. Follow Austin on Twitter @austinmeekRG or send him an email.