I decided to go back and watch not only the Giants game but also the Bills games. I wanted to see if anything changed scheme wise and if the Giants found some aspects to exploit while watching the Bills game.

Niners On Defense

-They give a lot of different looks with their front 4. Smith will line up anywhere from NT to 5 tech. Their standup rushers a lot of the time are lined up almost in a wide 9, but they like to move them around. When in passing situations, they like to try and get J Smith in one on one situations and stack the strong side with A Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Vic is very smart and creative with his pressures. Willis and Bowman can both get after the QB so I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of A gap pressure this week considering how successful Arizona was with it.

- They run quite a bit of single high safety, with Goldson coming in to help run support. He is a lot like Chancellor in our scheme. A lot of the time he doesn't come up until the ball is almost snapped. Play action/taking shots downfield early may force him to have to stay back, hopefully opening up the run game a little bit.

-Corners on the outside play a lot of man, they really trust their pass rush to get to the QB. Receivers are going to have to win in those situations. The comeback/hitch game may play a big part on the outside. That will also open it up for a double move later.

- This might perhaps be the biggest pickup I found from their defense. It is no secret how good their linebackers are. I may even go out on a limb and say Bowman is better in run support than Willis is, and Willis is top 5 in the league at that. I noticed that they ALWAYS have one of those two keyed in on the RB. If the RB is lined up right, whoever is on that side reads him the whole way. If he goes out in a route, they play man on him. If he stays in pass coverage, they drop into a zone. In the run game this helps them tremendously because they don't have to worry about reading line-play or the fullback, they just eye the RB. However, this does create opportunities for our offense if they picked up on this. They need to get deceptive in their running game. Getting their linebackers going one way and coming back the other on counters/cutbacks and trapping their LB's. (Sidenote, Justin Smith needs to be keyed on every run, even runs away from him because he is so relentless. He can ruin a run opposite of him if backside blocking is lazy). Also, when lined up in shotgun clearing the RB to the sideline will completely eliminate the LB covering him and when I saw this happen the middle of the field was open for a crossing route. Bevell is going to need to get creative this Thursday. And I don't just mean the playcall itself, I mean the formation bunches he comes out in.

This defense is VERY good. They play disciplined and fast. They are nasty and quite honestly a lot like our defense here in Seattle. But, there are going to be opportunities. Eli took advantage of the one on one matchups on the outside and their receivers did a good job beating press. Niners on Offense

- You will/have heard Pete and Gus talk about the numerous amounts of personnel groupings that SF likes to use, this is a big part of their game. They will lineup in a jumbo formation one play with 2 TE a FB and come out the very next play in empty with 5 wide. The thing about Harbaugh (as much as this hurts to say because I cannot stand the guy) he is a genius playcaller. He will run out of passing formations and pass out of running formations. He is very unpredictable and just does a very good job keeping the defense off balanced.

- They really like to get sneaky with Vernon Davis. The 3rd play of the Buffalo Game they lined up in a jumbo formation strong left with 2 TE's left next to the tackle. Thay ran play action and hid Vernon behind the one TE and the tackle. He then snuck out of no where to make a big catch over the middle. They love to run play action when they are in double TE sets, chipping Vernon and trying to lull LB to sleep. He needs to have a guy on him at all times because Harbaugh will get creative in getting him open. When they split him out wide and Smith sees a LB on him, more times than not he is going to give Vernon a shot to make a play. I personally don't like that matchup and it is one I am most worried about with their offense.

- This is the biggest key I picked up from them offensively in my opinion. They are VERY deceptive in their running game. This isn't the vanilla/typical run game that we saw last week against the Pats. They will flood their entire line one way with lots of guys pulling that way and have one blocker the other way and end up going that way. Harbaugh seems to like to get the defense to go one way and hit them the other way. They love to pull their line one way and hit the opposite two hole up the middle. There are a lot of designed cutbacks. Our defense cannot key on Gores initial movements because that is what they want, they will run a lot of misdirection/counter step stuff. If our defense plays sound gap control they will be fine, but their running game is designed for big plays so they need to be at their best.

I feel that we do match up very well with them for what they want to do offensively. We cannot let Vernon Davis run wild though. He will be the key to them moving the ball offensively. Another underrated aspect of their offense is Alex Smith's scrambling ability. We saw it first hand last year and they can't let him pick up key 3rd downs with his feet. This is going to be a smashmouth game and a fun one to watch. Expect another nail biter, last minute drive, cardiac arrest game because that in theory is how this game should go.

I agree completely about the need to contain/pressure Smith and limit Vernon Davis. Sounds like the Giants had a creative approach to limiting him, I hope Pete/Gus are paying attention (I'm sure they are).

3. The 49ers did a number on Vernon Davis: Davis was a major headache for the Giants in last year’s NFC title game, but New York did perhaps the best job of any team in 2011 stopping the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez duo. They found similar success Sunday in a rematch with Davis, and did so by interchanging their looks against him.

On one San Francisco first quarter possession, for example, the Giants used Stevie Brown, Corey Webster and Jacquian Williams in man-coverage on Davis, then later chipped him at the line and released him into a zone. He appeared to be one of the main focuses for the Giants’ defensive game plan, and their approach worked wonders as Davis caught just two passes for 13 yards prior to a meaningless 24-yard grab late.

I watched the Giants game last night and if I could say that there is one thing that the 49s handle poorly it is playing from behind. It was almost like everyone on the team just panicked, and by the 4th quarter they were gassed and gave up hope. If we can either (1) jumpt to a good lead, or (2) stay in the game until the end, I think we win this one because we get better as the game goes on and the 49ers appear to get worse.

Harbaugh likes to try and hit Vernon Davis deep downfield early in the game, usually on a deep cross or a wheel route. The Seahawks have to be ready for that.

If given time, the 49ers secondary can be had downfield. I'm not a huge fan of their safeties in coverage and I really think the Seahawks will be able to hit some plays downfield if they pick up the blitz.

The 49ers are so solid against the run that I think it would be wise for Bevell to try and get the passing game going early. Stretch out the defense a little, similar to what the Giants did last week when their run/pass splits were completely flipped by design in the second half. Attack downfield to start and free up some space in the running game.

The 49ers are a good team, exceptionally tough and well coached, but dammit, so are the Seahawks. This is going to require a great effort from the Hawks to win, but I love games like this.

Last week as a pillowfight, the Patriots don't want to hit anybody. This, is a street fight.

I concur with what everyone else has said. Fantastic write-up and excellent work on your part. After reading your breakdown here and looking at the numbers and past match-ups, a few things come to mind:

1) With what you're saying about the 49ers creating Gap pressure tonight and getting after Russell Wilson -- that might be ... but in looking at the numbers, that doesn't appear to have been the focus up to this point of the 49ers on defense. The 49ers have only 9 sacks -- only 5 teams in the NFL have less sacks than the 49ers coming in to this game. They also come in to this game having only had 26 Passes Defensed (only 7 teams in the NFL have fewer -- NONE of which who appear to be contenders at this point). Seattle on the other hand has 40 (with Richard Sherman leading the league with 10). And in terms of interceptions ... the 49ers have a grand total of 4 as a defense. Now I find all of that very interesting and just wonder. Is that more a function of:

A) Defensive Philosophy. Are the 49ers more seeking to simply CONTAIN opposing QB's and Offenses ... rather than applying pressure? I certainly know that they are CAPABLE of getting after opposing QB's if they so desire. The 49ers had 42 Sacks last season -- among the league leaders in that category. Not so this year and I don't know why.

OR

B) Teams are simply passing on the 49ers less BECAUSE their pass defense is so good. It could be. Taking a look at the numbers might lead you to believe that ...

Those are the leading 5 receivers for the Giants ... and that is a whole lot of size there. And they (of course) were not only able to do that against the 49ers ... they did that in the playoffs last year as well because of their overall size and physical strength. The Seahawks don't have quite as much of that. Guys like Sidney Rice and Zach Miller are going to have to step up tonight.

On the Offenses, here's one interesting set of statistics coming in to this game. I took a look at QB Hits -- that is, hits on the quarterback that a team's offensive line in essence allows. Seattle and SF are in a virtual dead heat in that category.

Seattle's line has allowed 26 hits on Russell Wilson (Right around league average) ...

San Francisco's line has allowed 28 hits on Alex Smith (In the upper 1/3 of the league).

Now that's very interesting because if you take a look at Sacks Allowed (the number of Sacks that team's offensive line has allowed) ... the 49ers come in to this game with 18 Sacks allowed (Only the Packers and Cardinals have allowed more).

So Teams HAVE been able to successfully apply pressure on and get to Alex Smith.

Seattle, on the other hand, has only allowed only 12 Sacks (in the bottom 1/3). I would attribute a lot of that to Russell Wilson's escapability. He'll certainly need that tonight.

Those stats bode very well if I'm Seattle because to me ... (for the Seahawks) this game comes down to stopping the run. First and foremost, that's got to be Priority #1. In both games the 49ers lost, they failed to crack the 100 yard barrier on the ground. So, as the running game goes ... so goes the 49ers.

And if Seattle simply plays Seahawks brand of football, I just don't see San Francisco having all that much success on the ground -- I just don't. Even if they throw those Wildcat looks at us tonight, I don't see it working. Even if they fool them at first, Pete Carroll has shown an amazing ability to make adjustments and this Seahawks defense is simply too fast and too physical for that running game to keep clicking all night.

[And ... I'm not totally convinced that this SF running attack is all that and a bag of chips. Just go take a look at where the Jets and Bills Run Defenses are ranked. Might be a lot more fluff in those stats than people realize.]

So given that, I believe that this game (as it progresses) might become increasingly more and more about the quarterbacks. I know that Alex Smith is a very efficient QB (a game manager), but I've been watching him for too many years now to believe that he's a guy who can truly beat you. History has shown that if you put consistent pressure on this guy, he crumbles. I'm just not convinced that he is a guy who can truly be asked to go out and win a game for the team. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, from what I've seen IS a guy that a coach can go up to, hand him the keys, and in essence say, "Win this game for us."

All of that is why I'm feeling pretty good about our chances going in to this game.

Hawkscanner wrote:I concur with what everyone else has said. Fantastic write-up and excellent work on your part. After reading your breakdown here and looking at the numbers and past match-ups, a few things come to mind:

1) With what you're saying about the 49ers creating Gap pressure tonight and getting after Russell Wilson -- that might be ... but in looking at the numbers, that doesn't appear to have been the focus up to this point of the 49ers on defense. The 49ers have only 9 sacks -- only 5 teams in the NFL have less sacks than the 49ers coming in to this game. They also come in to this game having only had 26 Passes Defensed (only 7 teams in the NFL have fewer -- NONE of which who appear to be contenders at this point). Seattle on the other hand has 40 (with Richard Sherman leading the league with 10). And in terms of interceptions ... the 49ers have a grand total of 4 as a defense. Now I find all of that very interesting and just wonder. Is that more a function of:

A) Defensive Philosophy. Are the 49ers more seeking to simply CONTAIN opposing QB's and Offenses ... rather than applying pressure? I certainly know that they are CAPABLE of getting after opposing QB's if they so desire. The 49ers had 42 Sacks last season -- among the league leaders in that category. Not so this year and I don't know why.

OR

B) Teams are simply passing on the 49ers less BECAUSE their pass defense is so good. It could be. Taking a look at the numbers might lead you to believe that ...

Those are the leading 5 receivers for the Giants ... and that is a whole lot of size there. And they (of course) were not only able to do that against the 49ers ... they did that in the playoffs last year as well because of their overall size and physical strength. The Seahawks don't have quite as much of that. Guys like Sidney Rice and Zach Miller are going to have to step up tonight.

On the Offenses, here's one interesting set of statistics coming in to this game. I took a look at QB Hits -- that is, hits on the quarterback that a team's offensive line in essence allows. Seattle and SF are in a virtual dead heat in that category.

Seattle's line has allowed 26 hits on Russell Wilson (Right around league average) ...

San Francisco's line has allowed 28 hits on Alex Smith (In the upper 1/3 of the league).

Now that's very interesting because if you take a look at Sacks Allowed (the number of Sacks that team's offensive line has allowed) ... the 49ers come in to this game with 18 Sacks allowed (Only the Packers and Cardinals have allowed more).

So Teams HAVE been able to successfully apply pressure on and get to Alex Smith.

Seattle, on the other hand, has only allowed only 12 Sacks (in the bottom 1/3). I would attribute a lot of that to Russell Wilson's escapability. He'll certainly need that tonight.

Those stats bode very well if I'm Seattle because to me ... (for the Seahawks) this game comes down to stopping the run. First and foremost, that's got to be Priority #1. In both games the 49ers lost, they failed to crack the 100 yard barrier on the ground. So, as the running game goes ... so goes the 49ers.

And if Seattle simply plays Seahawks brand of football, I just don't see San Francisco having all that much success on the ground -- I just don't. Even if they throw those Wildcat looks at us tonight, I don't see it working. Even if they fool them at first, Pete Carroll has shown an amazing ability to make adjustments and this Seahawks defense is simply too fast and too physical for that running game to keep clicking all night.

[And ... I'm not totally convinced that this SF running attack is all that anag of chips. Just go take a look at where the Jets and efenses are ranked. Might be a lot more fluff in those stats than people realize.]

So given that, I believe that this game (as it progresses) might become increasingly more and more about the quarterbacks. I know that Alex Smith is a very efficient QB (a game manager), but I've been watching him for too many years now to believe that he's a guy who can truly beat you. History has shown that if you put consistent pressure on this guy, he crumbles. I'm just not convinced that he is a guy who can truly be asked to go out and win a game for the team. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, from what I've seen IS a guy that a coach can go up to, hand him the keys, and in essence say, "Win this game for us."

All of that is why I'm feeling pretty good about our chances going in to this game.

Great post. I agree that we must bottle up the run game, but I fully expect us to do that. Vernon Davis will be the X factor for them offensively in my opinion. I might even mix it up and put guys like Browner or Sherman on him now and then...the Giants did that with their corners. I do love the matchup and like I've heard, Pete built this team to best the niners, now go do it. If Russ plays well I think we win also. But Vic is gonna give him some nasty looks so it will be tough.

Great write up! Definitely agree on offense their best bet to beat us is to get Vernon going, we stop him i think we win comfortably. Would love to see us throw in a screen early, they will be gunning for Russ! Just not a goddamn WR screen..

1. DO NOT turn the ball over. My gut feeling says the team that wins the turnover battle will win the game.2. DO NOT give up good field position. This is you special teams and again... this means not turning the ball over.3. DO NOT Give up big plays downfield. San Fran will turn the ball over if they're forced into trying to sustain long methodical drives.4. Offensive Linemen DO NOT stand around and not pick up a block. I can't stand seeing our lineman dancing at the LOS with nobody in front of them and not picking up anybody. Combo down, so the guy next to you can slide and get his hands on a pass rusher that's most likely coming through on the other side of him. Seeing offensive linemen not block anybody when our backfield is being pressured absolutely drives me nuts.5. Receivers DO NOT drop the ball.6. Defense DO NOT miss tackles and DO NOT let receivers get open over the top for big gains.