Pentagon to brief on its Nuclear Posture Review

DRIVING THE DAY — PENTAGON BRIEFS ON ITS NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW: Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan briefs reporters this afternoon on the Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review. Scheduled to accompany him are Deputy Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas Shannon.

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Shannon, who is the highest-ranked career official at the State Department, will be attending following reports that he’s stepping down. POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi has more here.

A draft of the review leaked last month calls for a sea-launched cruise missile to replace the nuclear-armed Tomahawk, which was retired in 2013, as well as a lower-yield version of the submarine-launched Trident nuclear ballistic missile.

“The gap between China and the United States is too wide to argue that the United States is lagging behind in any meaningful way. In fact, the exact opposite is true. By any measure, the U.S. arsenal is far superior,” explained Gregory Kulacki, author of the paper and manager of the China Project at the Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program.

BUT THE NEW START TREATY TO HOLD, Reuters reports: “The United States fulfilled its obligations under the New Start nuclear arms treaty with Russia in August last year and expects Moscow also will be within the limits set by the accord by the Feb. 5 deadline, the State Department said on Thursday.

“Under the terms of the agreement, which went into force on Feb. 5, 2011, each side had seven years to reach the treaty’s central limits of 700 deployed missiles and bombers, 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 800 deployed and non-deployed missile launchers and bombers.”

MD TRIVIA — DOUBLE DOSE: Name the Packers’ great running back who missed the 1945 NFL Championship Game while serving with the Army.

And from last week’s winner, John Wertman, the Naval Academy is one of four universities to have produced a U.S. president —Jimmy Carter — and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback - Roger Staubach. Name the other three.

The first person to email the correct answers to Morning D ( ghellman@politico.com) wins a mention in Monday’s edition.

ALSO TODAY — TRUMP MEETS NORTH KOREAN DEFECTORS: President Donald Trump meets this morning with North Korean defectors in the Oval Office.

Meanwhile, a U.S. envoy says military action against North Korea is not close, via USA Today.

Here’s how organizers are protecting an Olympics held in North Korea’s nuclear shadow, writes The New York Times.

And North Korea warns against U.S.-South Korea military drills after the Olympics, via Reuters.

THEPENTAGON IS RELUCTANT TO BLOODY NORTH KOREA’S NOSE, reports the NYT: “The White House has grown frustrated in recent weeks by what it considers the Pentagon’s reluctance to provide President Trump with options for a military strike against North Korea, according to officials, the latest sign of a deepening split in the administration over how to confront the nuclear-armed regime of Kim Jong-un.

“The national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, believes that for Mr. Trump’s warnings to North Korea to be credible, the United States must have well-developed military plans, according to those officials.

“But the Pentagon, they say, is worried that the White House is moving too hastily toward military action on the Korean Peninsula that could escalate catastrophically. Giving the president too many options, the officials said, could increase the odds that he will act.”

EMERGING SPENDING DEAL WOULD JILT DEFICIT HAWKS, writes our colleague Sarah Ferris: “Congressional leaders are nearing agreement on the costliest spending accord in years, and much of it could wind up on the credit card...

“Inches away from a handshake agreement, the GOP’s most recent proposal is said to be north of $300 billion, raising defense caps by $80 billion and domestic caps by $63 billion over each of the next two years.”

— AND HOUSE GOP LEADERS EYE YET ANOTHER STOPGAP, reports POLITICO’s John Bresnahan: “The House could vote as early as Tuesday on a stopgap bill to fund the government through March 22, according to multiple GOP sources.

“Congress has until Feb. 8 to avoid another shutdown, but finding the votes in the House will not be easy for GOP leaders.”

Expect a tough road ahead: GOP leaders will again have their work cut out for them to pass yet another CR. Democrats are unlikely to support the measure without assurances on their domestic spending priorities or on an immigration deal that protects Dreamers.

The conservative House Freedom Caucus appears to be taking a hard line on the CR so far. "I don't see a path for the Freedom Caucus supporting a fifth CR," HFC Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said Thursday at the GOP retreat, per POLITICO's Rachael Bade.

Defense hawks may also need some convincing. Asked at the retreat if he'd support a fifth CR, House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-Texas) was noncommittal.

"We're just going to have to see what the situation is when it arrives," he said. "Nobody wants a government shutdown, but we also cannot continue to inflict the damage that CRs inflict on the military."

— AND THE NAVY AGAIN LAMENTS THE HAMSTRINGS, via Jacqueline: A more powerful Navy is not just about building more warships but also new investments in advanced technology like directed energy weapons, electromagnetic warfare capabilities, a more networked fleet and developing sailors with new skills, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson said Thursday at the Heritage Foundation.

Over the past 18 months, the Navy has only operated under a regular budget for five months, he complained. The remaining time has been funded by continuing spending resolutions, which lock in funding at the previous year’s levels and prevent the start of any new programs.

“Mattis confirmed the topline during a closed breakfast at the Republican congressional retreat in West Virginia, a lawmaker who attended the session told POLITICO.”

NEW PUNISHMENTS ISSUED FOR NAVY COLLISIONS, reports USNI News: “Navy leadership has issued more punishments to sailors involved in the two fatal collisions in the Western Pacific, senior service officials told USNI News on Thursday.

“The service held six non-judicial punishment hearings in Yokosuka, Japan, on Jan. 25 related to the collisions of guided-missile destroyers USS Fitzgerald (DDG-62) and USS John S. McCain (DDG-56)...”

“Four sailors were issued non-judicial punishments as a result of the hearings in Japan.”

“‘We can confirm it and it did not meet our objectives,’ Defense Department spokesperson Dana White told reporters when asked why the failure wasn't announced earlier. ‘But we learn something all the time from these tests and we learned something from this one.’”

WAR REPORT — U.S. ACCUSES ASSAD OF USING NEW KINDS OF CHEMICALS WEAPONS, reports The Associated Press: “The Trump administration on Thursday accused Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government of producing and using ‘new kinds of weapons’ to deliver deadly chemicals despite committing to abolish its program in 2013, and said the world must find a way to stop it...

“There were no indications that the Syria government, after seven years of civil war, had developed new, deadlier chemicals. Rather, the officials said they believed the weapons used to distribute the chemicals had evolved to become more sophisticated, potentially to evade international capability by making the origins of attacks harder to trace.”

Meanwhile, the Syrian government slams Turkey’s offensive into the Afrin region as an “occupation that will be dealt with,” Reuters reports.

The war in Syria has gotten more unstable as Turkey fights U.S. allies for control, writes BuzzFeed.

And The New York Times visits the tense front lines between the Kurds and Turks.

PENTAGON’S REVOLVING DOOR SPINS FASTER UNDER TRUMP, writes Bloomberg Government: “Ties between the Pentagon and the defense industry have deepened under President Donald Trump, prompting renewed concern about conflicts of interest that could result in favoritism toward top military contractors.

“More than 80 percent of top Defense Department officials under Trump have defense contractor work experience – in many cases extensive – compared with roughly half of those President Barack Obama appointed to the same jobs, a Bloomberg Government analysis found.”

NO SKYNET YET, reports Wesley: High-end technology coming out of Silicon Valley like artificial intelligence have a big future in the defense department, but there are some hurdles to jump first, like learning to scale small successful pilot programs upward, Pentagon acquisition chief Ellen Lord told reporters in her first remarks as the new undersecretary of Defense for acquisition and sustainment.

But an “AI strategy for all of the department” is in the works, she said, under Mike Griffin, her new counterpart as undersecretary of Defense for research and engineering.

MAKING MOVES — BOEING NAMES NEW VP FOR FEDERAL LEGISLATIVE AFFAIRS: Boeing has named Art Cameron as its new vice president of federal legislative affairs. Before joining Boeing, Cameron spent 17 years on Capitol Hill, including as staff director for the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies.

— TRUMP TAPS AN ARMY COMPTROLLER: Trump has tapped John Whitley to be Army comptroller. Whitley is a senior fellow at the Institute for Defense Analyses and the Center for Naval Analysis as well as a research director at the Crime Prevention Research Center. He was also a health care analyst for the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission, which recommended a series of changes to the military health care and pension systems.

— AND A COUNTERINTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR: The president also intends to nominate William Evanina to be director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center. Evanina has held the post since June 2014, which serves as the principal counterintelligence and security adviser to the director of national intelligence.

About The Author : Gregory Hellman

Greg Hellman is a defense reporter for POLITICO Pro. He is the author of the Morning Defense newsletter and covers Congress.

Prior to joining POLITICO, Greg worked as a national security analyst for the Government Accountability Office where he focused on defense and counter-ISIS policy. He also worked as a reporter for Bloomberg BNA and Inside Washington Publishers, where he covered worker-safety policy.

Greg grew up outside Milwaukee, Wis. He graduated from Boston University in 2008 and American University in 2013.