Friday, October 07, 2005

Lunch Discussions #145: The Crazification Factor

John: ... I mean, what will it take? That last speech literally made no sense. It was crazy drunken bar talk! Islamic radicals are like COMMUNISM?! (gets speech on laptop) If we don't fight terrorists in Iraq they'll build a fundamentalist terrorist state stretching from Spain to Indonesia? What the fuck? Even assuming Spain, which last time I checked is 95% Roman Catholic, goes down, you gotta assume France, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, all eight hundred million Hindus in India, Burma, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore would be somewhat of an obstacle.

Tyrone: To be fair, you're going west-to-east. Maybe he meant a fundamentalist terrorist state stretching from Spain to Indonesia going east-to-west. Going that way, there's only the U.S. The President could be warning us that if we don't prevail in Iraq, the United States will become a fundamentalist Islamic terrorist state.

John: ... a little oblique, isn't it?

Tyrone: The man is nothing if not subtle.

John:(calling up map on laptop) You know, I guess if you start in Spain, swing hard south through northern Africa, you got Algeria, Libya there, Egypt, cross the Red Sea and you're in the Middle East ...

Tyrone: From there, if you spot him the Indian Ocean and India, you're in Indonesia.

John: I am not spotting him eight hundred million Hindus. I call shenanigans.

Tyrone: And again, I must point out Bush said "the militants believe that controlling one country will rally the Muslim masses, allowing them to overthrow all moderate governments in the region." That's what the militants believe. They may just be delusional. He says that himself: "Some might be tempted to dismiss these goals as fanatical or extreme. Well, they are fanatical and extreme -- and they should not be dismissed. Our enemy is utterly committed."

John: But he's citing that desire as a basis for our strategy. You can't cite your enemy's delusional hopes as a basis for a rational strategy. Goals don't exist in a vacuum, they're linked to capability. David Koresh was utterly committed to being Jesus Christ. See how far that got him.

Either Bush is making strategy based on a delusional goal of his opponent, which is idiotic; or he's saying he believes his opponent has the capability of achieving this delusional goal, which is idiotic. Neither bodes well for the republic.

Tyrone: Reading here, the speech boiled down to two points --

John: Who cares? The Spain-to-Indonesia thing should automatically invalidate the whole speech. I don't care how good your investment advisor is, he can spend three hours reviewing mutual funds, as soon as he says "And of course, we can put your money into the Easter Bunny's Egg Upgrades", he is out of --

Tyrone: -- two points. First, Iraq is the keystone in the struggle between the West and Islamic Fundamentalism.

John: Which, if we accept the Administration's own argument, means that invading and destabilizing Iraq with insufficent post-war planning (and all that entails), not enough personnel, and shitty equipment for that personnel was the biggest screw-up in the War on Terror.

Tyrone: He's the President: if he says it, it must be true. Second, Bush says we have made a lot of progress in stopping al-Queda plots. Look: "Overall, the United States and our partners have disrupted at least ten serious al Qaeda terrorist plots since September the 11th, including three al Qaeda plots to attack inside the United States. We've stopped at least five more al-Qaeda efforts to case targets in the United States, or infiltrate operatives into our country."

John: What are they counting for those wins? Are they counting guys like Padilla?* This is all very gooey, like how we've killed like, nine of Osama Bin Laden's #3 guys.

Tyrone: Being #3 in Al-queda is like being a "creative vice president" at a Hollywood studio. There are dozens of them ... and they are expendable. Listen, don't do this, you're just getting worked up. Have another mozzarella stick.

John: Hey, Bush is now at 37% approval. I feel much less like Kevin McCarthy screaming in traffic. But I wonder what his base is --

Tyrone: 27%.

John: ... you said that immmediately, and with some authority.

Tyrone:Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

Tyrone: Hadn't thought about it. Let's split the difference. Half just have worldviews which lead them to disagree with what you consider rationality even though they arrive at their positions through rational means, and the other half are the core of the Crazification -- either genuinely crazy; or so woefully misinformed about how the world works, the bases for their decision making is so flawed they may as well be crazy.

John: You realize this leads to there being over 30 million crazy people in the US?

Tyrone: Does that seem wrong?

John: ... a bit low, actually.

Tyrone:(shrugs) Probably right, then. Speaking of Obama, I need to get t-shirts printed up to sell.

John: I can do that on the web. What do they say?

Tyrone:Don't You Dare Kill Obama

John: How about Don't You Dare Kill Obama (... and we know you're thinking about it)

Tyrone: Niiiiice.

John: Or You Kill Obama and WE WILL BURN SHIT DOWN

Tyrone: Even better. Nobody wants their shit burned down.

John: Glad to help.

Tyrone: I'm having you taken off the list for when the revolution comes.

John: ... there's really a list --

Tyrone: Oh yeah. Hell yeah.

*(Edit: Holy shit, he is. This was even more dubious than I was joking about.)

316 comments:

I can think of one guy I know who is -- and I mean this -- literally every bad stereotype of the neocon wingnut you can think of. He drinks a big, heaping glass of the right-wing Kool-Aid three times a day and licks his lips while doing so.

You know that a large contigent of that 37% (or 27%, as your friend says) are the kind of people who would vote for a candidate who eats small children at press conferences before they vote for a Democrat.

I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.

This fits in nicely with Will Self's "Quantity Theory of Insanity," which posits that there is a constant amount of insanity in the world at any given time, which just moves from population to population. So, if you dose the water in some genteel suburb with LSD, a comet-worshipping commune somewhere will spontaneously dissolve into a bunch of normal people. But Self never managed to get a definitive quantity. 27%! Perfect!

Just to give the devil his due, Bush is right about the Spain to Indonesia thing. Islamic empires have, at one time or another, controlled Spain, all of North Africa, and all the lands between Turkey and Indonesia. (Including India, for several hundred years, as shown here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mughal_empire_large.png)

Bin Laden's stated goal is to unite all of these lands under a single ruler -- one who's name probably rhymes with "Flin Fladen". The fact that Spain and India aren't even Muslim anymore doesn't bother him, because when you are that much of a Froot Loop, you don't get hung up on details.

The point of the speech was to prove that a) Al Qaeda is so batshit crazy there is no point in negotiating with them, and b) militant Islamists are more objectionable than the Republican party. And both these things are (mostly) true.

But what makes ME mad is the fact that this guy has given another speech in which the phrase "terrorist killers" occurs 100 times and the phrases, "New Orleans", "deficit spending" and "I'm nominating the chick who does my taxes to the Supreme Court" occur not at all.

and to take the devil's due back -- nobody's asking for negotiations. Saying that this is Bin Laden's dream and so we can't deal with him because he's nuts is a biug "huh?". I don't want to deal with him. I want the war against him prosecuted with alacrity and efficiency. The real irony here is that Iraq, on the list of Islamic hotbeds, was way down on the list -- before the war. High on other lists, but low on that one. Saying that we have to stay focused on fighting terrorism in Iraq ia like a pyromaniac insisting we have to stick around to put out the fire he just set. Technically the correct thing to do, but it doesn't make setting the fire in the first place a good idea.

John: You realize this leads to there being over 30 million crazy people in the US?

Tyrone: Does that seem wrong?

John: ... a bit low, actually.

If it seems a bit low - remember that you're only counting the voting population of Illinois in your sample size. This is a self-selected sample, with no real indication of if voting adults are more or less susceptible to "crazification" than your average US adult citizen.

Assuming a similar distribution among the entire population, and using some back of the napkin math, you're actually looking at probably closer to 60 million adult crazies. Not even counting the "proto-crazies-in-training" under the age of 15 or so.

I was going with the number of people as defined by General Crazification, as opposed to Special Crazification, which should spit out the 60 million number. But thanks for making us feel even oogier! AAAGGGG!

To be fair, you're going west-to-east. Maybe he meant a fundamentalist terrorist state stretching from Spain to Indonesia going east-to-west. Going that way, there's only the U.S. The President could be warning us that if we don't prevail in Iraq, the United States will become a fundamentalist Islamic terrorist state.Another option is that is empire will head south a bit... From Spain, to Mexico, some minor Pacific nations, and then home free to Indonesia.

Rogers is right - I never understood how they tagged Saddam and al Queda in bed together - Saddam and Iraq were considered by the Shia nations heretical with regard to Islam - if you want to target fundalmental Islam, look no further than Saudi Arabia.

So are people so blind with religion in America that they will pretty much agree with anything Bush says?

I guess there is a college called Oral Roberts University, so maybe so.

Wars are not won without sacrifice -- and this war will require more sacrifice, more time, and more resolve.

while i tend to agree that we have to put out his pyromaniacal fire now that it's started, i'd like to see him lead by example on that "more sacrifice" bit. maybe he could...i don't know...ask his daughters to enlist? stop cutting taxes for his 500 richest friends so we can pay to get the job done properly?

I happen to live in Illinois, and I can verify that 27% figure, partly because I make it a point to monitor all the local weblogs that have crossed my radar, and partly just from my hobby of observing Illinoisans in their natural habitat.

This reminds me of Daniel Davies' examination of local elections in the UK:

We know (or at least, credibly guesstimate) that of the voting population of the UK:a) 2% are fascistsb) about 4% are Welsh or Scottish nationalists.c) 10% are civic-minded souls who will vote purely on local issuesd) A thick 10% are single-issue nutters of one kind or anothere) about 1% are more or less fictional characters because they are the result of ballot fraud.

All of these groups will be voting in the local elections for sure; the fascists and nationalists have to turn out because it’s their only chance of getting anyone elected at all, and the other three groups have to vote by definition. Already, with these groups, all five of which are by any reasonable standard weirdos, we’re up to 27% of the electorate. A further 5% of the population belong to political parties, and about four-fifths of these can be expected to get out and vote. We have now reached 31% of the electorate and turnout was only 36% in the local elections.

You've obviously been lurking (in the ether perhaps) within earshot of my 65 year old Fundimentalist Aunt. Who, in all earnestness, actually asked, "Do you think God is punishing us for the way this country is going?" when talking about Katrina. After I challenged her, (gently) I was told "That's what the Reverend said last Sunday. You know, they had all them gay people going to a party down there." Of course, she had no answer when I asked why God didn't take out San Fransisco.

The crazy just slides down hill. First from the right wing nutjobs "leading" this country down to my Aunt's pastor who then spreads the shit around like so much horse manure. She voted for ol' Shrub and STILL supports him. What's that bumpersticker? "Jesus, please save us from your followers."

Distractions, people. Slight-of-hand, "folks." We are in Iraq for at least a year even if we wanted to pull out. Gas could hit four dollars a gallon, but he doesn't care because in his mind he has made his play to bypass the twenty-second amendment

I'm a little fuzzy on that one too. IN theory, I suppos,e it would fall to the Supreme Court to adjudicate if the 22nd Amendment coudl be ignored in time of crisis. I can't see how Bush could win another election, as he now has plenty of pissed off Republicans circling him (I am sure John McCain goes to sleep every night now quietly giggling). But, it's not my conspiracy theory.

Apparently, there is some wack ass movement to obolish the 22nd amendment, headed, by of all popele, a Democrat. From Raw Story:

"The Democrats’ number two in the House, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has defended a push to end presidential term limits, and told RAW STORY that concern in the blogosphere that his proposal could mean “Bush for life” is baseless.

Hoyer has introduced an amendment to the Constitution which would repeal the 22nd Amendment, which states that the president is able to serve no more than two full terms. He has submitted a similar amendment every Congressional session since 1985."

In theory, it wouldn't take even a maendment, just some group to challenge the amendment in court, have enough judges pass the case up to the next rung so it goes to the SC, where Bush has conviently stored his henchmen. However, that would mean he would have to then run an election. And it would mean Clinton could run again, and he's siad he'd be intereste din doing so, if the 22nd amendment were repeeled.

"OK. Call me stupid, but how would stacking the Supreme Court result in overturning(?)"

He has the majority in the House and the Senate but...

"I can't see how Bush could win another election, as he now has plenty of pissed off Republicans circling him (I am sure John McCain goes to sleep every night now quietly giggling). But, it's not my conspiracy theory."

1) I don't see how he won the last two times, but hey...

2) Seriously, the cat already has Roe Vs. Wade and any other agenda his party wants sewn up. Why present the least credible cronies as your best choice-slash-option?

3) "(c)onspiracy" implies collusion and I don't even think Karl Rove is really in on this one. I think it's more the http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0110428/"Madness of King George the Shrub" going on. The guy is delusional, his own party had to keep kicking him in the ass to get out of Crawford and visit the next state over and even then the best he could initially do was a fly-by.

His father still felt that he should have won his second term all the way into Clinton's second term because the President that wins a war is supposed to win the Election. The second Shrub goes after Iraq to restore his father's legacy when Syria and Iran are doing far more to destablilize the region and the world (and I bet you could find actual WMDs in Iran).

President George W. Bush told Palestinian ministers that God had told him to invade Afghanistan and Iraq - and create a Palestinian State, a new BBC series reveals.

In Elusive Peace: Israel and the Arabs, a major three-part series on BBC TWO (at 9.00pm on Monday 10, Monday 17 and Monday 24 October), Abu Mazen, Palestinian Prime Minister, and Nabil Shaath, his Foreign Minister, describe their first meeting with President Bush in June 2003.

Nabil Shaath says: "President Bush said to all of us: 'I'm driven with a mission from God. God would tell me, "George, go and fight those terrorists in Afghanistan." And I did, and then God would tell me, "George, go and end the tyranny in Iraq …" And I did. And now, again, I feel God's words coming to me, "Go get the Palestinians their state and get the Israelis their security, and get peace in the Middle East." And by God I'm gonna do it.'"

Abu Mazen was at the same meeting and recounts how President Bush told him: "I have a moral and religious obligation. So I will get you a Palestinian state."

The series charts the attempts to bring peace to the Middle East, from Bill Clinton's peace talks in 1999/2000 to Israel's withdrawal from Gaza last August.

Norma Percy, series producer of The 50 Years War (1998) returns, with producers Mark Anderson and Dan Edge, to tell the inside story of another seven years of crisis.

Presidents and Prime Ministers, their generals and ministers tell what happened behind closed doors as peace talks failed and the intifada exploded.

This is a fatally flawed slogan. The people who might consider such an action are so disconnected that they normally consider themselves above such repercussions. Plus the slogan's sentiment inherently reinforces their worldview, vis-a-vis the LA riots, that any protests would be confined to the protesting community.

It's better to just stick with the open-ended and potentially ominous 'Don't you dare kill Obama'. Or perhaps refine the sentiment more specifically to attack the elitist disconnect, such as 'You kill Obama and we're coming across town.'

"The murderous ideology of the Islamic radicals is the great challenge of our new century. Yet, in many ways, this fight resembles the struggle against communism in the last century. Like the ideology of communism, Islamic radicalism is elitist, led by a self-appointed vanguard that presumes to speak for the Muslim masses. Bin Laden says his own role is to tell Muslims, quote, "what is good for them and what is not." And what this man who grew up in wealth and privilege considers good for poor Muslims is that they become killers and suicide bombers. He assures them that his -- that this is the road to paradise -- though he never offers to go along for the ride."

Juancho said... Y'know, NOLA is a very CATHOLIC city compared to SF. And it still got whacked. Hmmm...

Don't you know, by evangelical standards Catholics are not Christian and are basically in league with the devil. Why do you think it wasn't appropriate to talk about Robert's religious beliefs, but it is essential to discuss Meier's?

Um, 27% has to just be the Republican crazification factor. Logic would dictate there are some on our own side who are likewise incapable of logic. Sadly the total percentage of the population that is insane is probably higher.

Countries fighting over a cartoon, however irreverent it may be, but a cartoon... That is crazy.

That New Orleans leadership can't pull together and provide a concept of a suggestion of a glimpse at addressing housing issues until, yeah, hurricaine season is approaching again. That is crazy.

That our president, his adminisistration, both parties - yes both parties.. have placed us in a quagmire that may make Vietnam appear like a C- term paper in the grading of Ultimate history.. That is crazy.

That your T-shirt is probably wrong and more like, Kill Obama and I'll flip you the bird for disrupting my American idol/survivor/dancing and skating with the trained bears coverage.This is crazy and sad.

Well, the crazies are Shrub's natural constituency! I remember when Marion Barry won re-election as Mayor of DC after his drug conviction. at least one columnist pointed out that much of his support base consisted of young black males, many of whom themselves had drug convictions....

For that matter, the whole GOP has been depending heavily on projection and the other "infantile defenses".

As far as Shrub himself, "rapid cycling" bipolar disorder would explain an awful lot of his behavior! All those long vacations, drastic failures of judgement, grandiosity, apparent hallucinations, etc....

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My congresswoman Judy Biggert (IL-13) even alluded to her vote for Obama once. She's still batshit crazy. Thinks Bush's tax cuts are helping us grow our way out of debt and we must stay in Iraq until all the women are safe or something.

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