Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state. Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state. Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?

Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to FL since 2012, a lot of my family members included. In Florida, where a couple thousand votes matter, it makes a huge difference.

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state. Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?

Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to FL since 2012, a lot of my family members included. In Florida, where a couple thousand votes matter, it makes a huge difference.

Which was my point, and I'm glad you have the experience/knowledge to give it more credence.