6 Motivation for this work Inter-sectorial overall energy system analysis Guiding questions Is it possible to achieve Germany s CO 2 emission reduction targets by using large shares of renewable energies? If yes: what is the best composition of such energy system? And what is its cost? Long term perspective on macro-economic level

7 Outline Targets of the German climate protection policy Analysis of a renewable German energy system in 25 Methodology Results Investments Conclusions & outlook

8 Holistic model of the German energy system Approach Model of the overall energy system (all conversion chains and end-use sectors) based on hourly energy balance Generic optimizer optimum composition and sizing of all components including energy retrofit of the building stock Goal function: minimum of total annual cost (re-investment, maintenance, operation, financing) Appropriate treatment of a highly complex system with many interdependencies

40 Investments vs. saved fuel cost in bill. p.a. Important to notice Only investments for major RE sources (wind, PV) and stationary batteries considered In addition more investments will be necessary for grid expansion, other storage technologies, CHP plants, system integration, efficient end-use technologies etc.

41 Transformation of the energy system Qualitative trend of total annual cost cost per year w/o transformation today mid century time [years]

42 Outline Targets of the German climate protection policy Analysis of a renewable German energy system in 25 Methodology Results Investments Conclusions & outlook

43 Summary 1/2 Reduction of energy-related CO 2 emissions by 8 % and above is possible and will in the long term lead to lower cost compared to the energy system of today The dependence on imports of energy will be significantly reduced Key elements of the transformation are Reduction of consumption (e.g. classical electricity consumption, space heat) Efficient conversion chains (e.g. electric engines and heat pumps replacing combustion processes) Renewable energies (electricity, heat)

44 Summary 2/2 This strategy is linked to significant local value and employment creation due to installation of many hundred thousands components and systems in all energy conversion and end-use sectors with participation of many groups of investors including citizens Flucutuaing renewable energies (wind, solar PV) will become the backbone of the electricity generation and dominate the overall system This requires flexibilization of residual electricity production and electricity use in all end-use sectors (mobility, heating) in order to make use of the high values of negative residual load

45 Outlook Include electricity export/import with neighbor countries Disaggregation of the model in various sectors Mobility Fuel conversion chains (e.g. biomass) Introduction of a simple building typology Adjustment of the model to describe and optimize transformation pathways; inclusion of diffusion/exchange rates and learning curves for all relevant technologies Country studies (e.g. Italy, California, South Africa)

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