Summary

The population is forecast to grow from 193m in 2016 to 310m by 2050, reaching 3.4% of the world population. In theory, the favourable demo‑graphic trends will be conducive to rapid GDP growth, but the authorities have not planned adequately for the expansion of the labour force and failed to spend enough on infrastructure, education and social services. Democratic institutions are likely to become more entrenched in the long term, but the institutional and policy outlook will remain highly volatile given the strong role of the military. Successive governments are likely to increase development spending during the long-term forecast period, but such expenditure will continue to be hampered by fiscal constraints and the prioritisation of defence spending. Strengthened ties with China will help to address some infrastructure challenges.