Putin 'could be allowed to rejoin G7' if he pulls out of Syria

The prospect of Russia rejoining the G7 group of the world’s leading industrialised nations will be used as part of a carrot and stick approach to persuade President Vladimir Putin to pull out of Syria, The Daily Telegraph understands.

Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State, will fly to Moscow later this week with an ultimatum from the G7 demanding that Putin withdraws his armed forces and ends his support for President Bashar al-Assad. Threats of new sanctions against Russia could be made if he does not comply.

But alongside the hardline approach being taken by America and its Western allies, diplomats will be working behind the scenes to offer Mr Putin a way to regain his place at the G7, something he is said to covet.

Rex Tillerson will visit Moscow later this monthCredit:
AFP

Russia was expelled from what was the G8 in 2014 as a direct response to its annexation of Crimea. Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, tried to shrug off the punishment at the time, saying the G20, of which Russia remains a member, was far more important.

British and American diplomats, however, believe that Mr Putin is desperate to rejoin the G7, which consists of the US, the UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy and Japan. They also believe that his enthusiasm for the Assad regime is waning, and that he is looking for a dignified way out.

One Whitehall source said: “I think Tillerson will be able to travel to Russia with some very clear direction that if Putin wants to have a seat back at the top table of international affairs he has to get rid of Assad.

I do not believe the Russians want to have worsening relations with the USRex Tillerson, US Secretary of State

“We have to give him an exit strategy that allows him to save face. Ultimatums don’t tend to work with the Russians. But he can see that Syria is becoming more of a liability than an asset.

“If he were to force Assad out he could make it clear that Russia was committed to rebuilding Syria, which is in Russia’s interests.”

Mr Tillerson was careful yesterday not to blame Russia directly for the nerve gas attack that killed at least 86 people last week, and insisted Russia was not the target of the US cruise missile strike on a Syrian air base that followed.

He said: "I have not seen any hard evidence that connects the Russians directly to the planning or execution of this attack.

"To our knowledge we do not have any information to suggest that Russia was part of it."

He added: "I do not believe the Russians want to have worsening relations with the US, but it is going to take a lot of dialogue to better understand what is the relationship that Russia wants to have with the US."

He will point out to Mr Putin that Russia has failed to uphold a promise made in 2013 to ensure Syria gave up its chemical weapons.

He said: “Why Russia has not been able to achieve that is unclear to me. I don’t draw conclusions of complicity at all, but clearly they have been incompetent, and perhaps they have simply been outmanoeuvred by the Syrians.”

Russia insisted yesterday it would “respond to any aggression” such as further US air strikes, but military analysts believe Mr Putin wants to avoid any direct clashes with the US, as he knows the Americans have far superior firepower.

Last week the Kremlin indicated a significant softening of its stance when it said its support for Assad was “not unconditional”.

That was widely interpreted to mean that while Russia would fight for Russian assets in Syria, it was prepared to cut Assad loose in the medium to long term.

The Government believes that while Russia has ramped up its rhetoric over the weekend by raising the prospect of war with the West, Mr Putin will respect President Donald Trump as the first world leader prepared to stand up to him in Syria.