Vancouver home prices have not hit their peak– but they will still fall.

Oct 1, 2010

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Kiyoko Fujimura

Buzzbuzzhome Corp.

October 1, 2010

Everyone with an eye on the Canadian real estate market knows that Vancouver in particular has seen some incredible price gains since the recession. Most think Vancouver homes are overvalued and will suffer from a devaluation, but apparently that’s not going to happen– yet.

B.C.’s median home price is expected to rise five per cent this year from 2009 to $388,000, according to the latest economic analysis by Central 1 Credit Union. But prices are forecast to drop five per cent in 2011 to $370,000 before rebounding three per cent in 2012 to $380,000.

So it’ll be up and down and then up again for the Vancouver real estate market (if this report is correct). CIBC World Markets released a report that said that B.C. home prices are 16.8 per cent overvalued. That’s a lot. And a lot more than this other report is suggesting the drop will be. CIBC suggests that prices could drop 10 per cent this year.

But the article indicates that preconditions don’t exist for a full-out crash. Rather, it will be an adjustment period. Sales will slow, prices will ease, and housing values will make modest increases (likely lining up with inflation).

So what do you think? Are prices too high in Vancouver? Have they hit their peak already or will they keep going up?