The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker is in “critical but stable” ecological condition at this time. Its numbers are perilously low, but nest sites are well-protected, and aggressive recovery efforts are working. This species is not modeled for the summer season, as it is not well sampled by the Breeding Bird Survey, but in the winter season Audubon’s climate model predicts concern for the future. Only one-third of the current winter range is climatically stable, and local populations are highly devoted to more-or-less permanent colonies. In other words, they may not be able or willing to get up and go. Regardless of climate change, this woodpecker will continue to require active intervention—especially controlled burns.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.