Early Trade Rumors: Rollins, JMJ, Utley, Brown

As the baseball world wonders what the Phillies are, the Phillies have been one of the most interesting teams on the rumor pages. Most, like Pat Gallen’s 97.5 FM co-host Jayson Stark, have concluded that the Phillies don’t have a whole lot of pieces that would return much value much like we did ten days ago.

Yet, in that time, the Phillies have won seven out of nine games and moved within 5 games of first place in the NL East, improving their playoff odds from just over 3% to 9.4% according to ESPN’s projections.

– According to a report by Stark, a trade involving Chase Utley is “not happening“. Like Rollins, Utley has a series of attainable vesting options that could make him $15 million per year in 2015, 2016, and 2017 that might scare off potential suitors.

– Finally, the Stark piece indicates that sources around the league think the Phillies may shop Domonic Brown around the league for a change-of-scenery trade. Brown is hitting .223/.272/.332 and has been one of the Majors’ worst regulars by both OPS and fWAR.

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35 Comments

Scotty Ingerton

June 19, 2014 at 7:19 pm

I don’t quite understand this statement: “Like Rollins, Utley has a series of attainable vesting options…”. Rollins does not have a “series” of vesting options. He just has one for next season. Utley actually does have a series of vesting options (2016-18). So, there’s really not much comparison to be made between the two. Rollins will be much easier to move.

Just saying that you would drop the no trade clause now that the hit record is broke makes me think Rollins in it for himself and not the team. Its all about the money for players nowadays and the only time they play the “A” game is when it benefits them. Not the team.

Why is it so hard to understand that people — all people — want to be remembered for something after they’re gone, whether “gone” means dead or just retired? Did you snort with derision when Rollins broke Schmidt’s record? When Rollins said he didn’t want to be traded, fans criticized him. Now he says he might be willing and you’re still criticizing him.

A change of scenery trade is usually an underachieving player for another underachieving player. In other words, one team’s scouts made an error in judging a prospect’s potential, so they’re swapping him for a guy a differnt team’s scouts made the same error on.

Sometimes those type deals work out, but it’s not the type of transaction to hold one’s breath on.

I would think that Marlon Byrd would come up in discussions and he may have value. Regarding Mayberry, his value has really gone up a lot in the past three weeks. He was worth almost nothing three weeks ago but after his recent performance, somebody will be interested. Regarding Dominic Brown, it’s the opposite. His value has really gone down. I would try and wait before trading Brown. Maybe his value will pop up again. Regarding Rollins, it depends on how much a team needs a shortstop and whether they have the other pieces of the puzzle together. There are some shortstops on contending teams who are providing almost no offense. I think the only time that you really get good value in these deals is if there are multiple teams interested in the same player. The reason that the Astros got so much for Pence from the Phillies is that the Braves were trying to acquire him too.

This has really been Ryan Howard’s trip. 7 for 17 with 3 walks, 3 HRs and 9 RBIs. Game winning RBI in 3 of the 4 games. He is actually 3rd in the National League in RBIs. Let’s put it this way. The price to get someone to take his contract has taken a dive.

Rollins and Utley would both probably wait until the last minute to ok a trade, and with their no trade rights, you’d be limited on where you could trade them, and that hurts their value, because other teams know they’re not bidding against a bunch of others.

Not a big Mayberry fan, but TBH I’d rather see him playing than Revere, and if they trade Brown, they’ll definitely need to keep him, and I think Brown could use a change of scenery.

Byrd will have some value, but frickin Ruin gave him another one of those easy to reach vesting options, meaning we’ll get less back or have to eat even more money.

“Not a big Mayberry fan, but TBH I’d rather see him playing than Revere”

Notice how the rumor mill has been that the Red Sox are interested in Mayberry. Not one word has been heard about a team being interested in Revere. Maybe I’m reading into the absence of such a rumor too much. Maybe the sun won’t come up tomorrow, too.

Mayberry’s not the sort that anyone’s going to be an exuberant fan of, but he gives you a fairly decent all around presence more often than not, and as defense is included in that, I wouldn’t be surprised if the powers that be might lean his way more. The rumors are old enough that while he certainly, or anyone could still be dealt, it’s hardly imminent.

No, the “all around” is as wrong as it’s ever been. This year, as in all other years, he is killing LHP (.293/.398/.634, OPS 1.030) and sucking against RHP (.195/.298/.366, OPS .664). And his “clutch” hits (and now Revere’s injury) have been earning him more AB’s against RHP. The result is predictable. At this point he has almost exactly the same number of PA’s against pitchers from both sides.

Mayberry is a platoon player and expecting him to be otherwise or asking that he hit righthanders isn’t fair. When he’s in against lefties, he’s fine, and way “more often than not.” It’s not Mayberry’s fault that cirumstances have forced him to be a player he isn’t equiped to be. If injuries forced Diekman to be a starter, would it be fair to say he sucked at it? Or if injuries forced Jimmy Rollins to be a catcher for a few games, would it be fair to gripe if he let a few pitches go to the backstop?

Perhaps Ken worded his comment badly. But I think everyone pretty much knows by now what Mayberry is and isn’t capable of, and if he’s put in the correct situation, he IS fairly decent.

It’s not the more often than not as much as the FAIRLY DECENT ALL AROUND presence that presents the point I wouldn’t change even after rereading it. Not for a split second. I actually enjoy Crow’s comments, even though he seems much like these statistical analyzers I have zero taste for, but in this case, he pays zero attention to anything but offense. It was clear I wasn’t enshrining Mayberry, but if you think Revere’s a better defender or baserunner than Mayberry, good luck. And despite this WAY overdone thing about Mayberry being a lefty masher (he’s effective against ’em, he ain’t a “masher”, least by my definition, Mayberry is an extra base threat.

But thanks for the defense. If for no other reason, which there probably isn’t since I’m not one that gives a hoot about people agreeing with me, to at least acknowledge it.

Why would you trade anyone of you core players that despite a terrible month and 1/2 are still only 4 games out of 1st and one of the teams ahead of you is the Marlins.
If Lee can come back and be 90% of what he was, they would have a solid rotation. And it seems a few of the guys in the pen have figured it out. If the can go 8-2 in the next 10 games. They might be in first place.
I also don’t think they should trade any prospects for some single missing piece.
I say here is your team either step up in the second 1/2 and re-evaluate next winner.

I get the frustration with Ryan Howard. And I wasn’t a big fan of that contract that Ruben gave him either. But to just spout off “Trade Howard” when he’s right in the midst of a hot streak and kind of carrying this team right no seems kind of like poor timing on your part.

I can’t understand why anyone would post trade Howard. They are starting to get some excitement in the game. We should be buyers nit sellers. Why get rid of players that are producing? If Lee can come back healthy, I would say we are in the drivers seat. I believe this team as it is will make serious run and we may surprise a lot of ppl. Go Phillies! !!

The Phils have been enslaved to Ryan Howard’s contract since the day he signed it. Also, trading away all those prospects for Hunter Pence & then, turning around & trading him for NOTHING should’ve gotten Amaro fired right then & there. As we see those prospects rising up in Houston & Pence hitting those HR’s in SF, one wonders how Amaro still has a job.

Granted this team had an injury-plagued 2012; yet, that shouldn’t have stopped them in 2013 & 2014. Trading good players & prospects for mediocre Old Timers is what killed this team – and, the blame for that fall of the Phils lies right at Ruben Amaro’s feet. One wonders what could have been if we had a slick GM who didn’t throw away our future in 2012-13!

Trading Pence away was, at the time, about the only option. His contract was ending and extending him would have been expensive for a team which also was looking at the possibility of having to replace Utley due to his bad knees. The trade gained Tommy Joseph, who at the time was a well regarded catching prospect, a position of need in the Phils’ system. It’s not Amaro’s fault that Joseph suffered a series of injuries.

Like Schmenkman, I can’t recall any trades for mediocre old timers. The veterans on the team have all been free agent signings or came up through the Phils’ own system.

I would agree that at the time they traded for him, Michael Young would fit the title “mediocre Old timer” but Lisaverto Bonilla and Josh Lindblom have not proven to be good prospects or players so far.

Other than Oswalt, who I think really helped the team, I really can’t think of anyone else old or mediocre that they traded for.