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We are discussing retaliation, but not military. As I said in my earlier post Pakistan and China want IndoPak war so that they could derail the BRICS and BIMSTEC meetings planned in October which many world leaders are planning to attend and also now they are expecting us to attack and increased their guard. Now we should wait and attack after all this meetings are over and the attack should be a properly planned one. In the mean time during the BIMSTEC meetings we should invite the other SAARC members and have Pakistan suspended from SAARC

Now is the time for Bakis to declared victory. They have deterred Modi!

On a serious note, what did you expect him to say? It is better that he does not raise hope but try to deliver later than raise hope and fall flat. We all feel the pain but if the government is constrained it is constrained.

I don't understand why we don't unilaterally declare Pakistan a terrorist state, withdraw MFN status and terminate consular relationships. At least, place them on a terror watchlist that automatically moves them to "Terrorist State"" status if one more incident occurs within the next 5 years.

Not even a diplomatic slap in the face in return for 18 martyrs.Our response thus far acutely depressing.

Except for that poverty statement, I see he is going in the right direction in that speech. He is addressing the people of Pakistan directly and not the scumbags who rule over them. That poverty statement was also a reminder to the people that they remain in poverty while money is flowing to "liberate" Kashmiris.

The problem is... who is listening to him on the other end? Is his speech even reaching the other side? Is there even anyone on that side that is educated and enlightened enough to understand his speech?

Or was this a Chankian speech meant for the jeehardies of God's own land?

It takes time to conduct any overt military operation. Such operation cannot be disclosed in public before it starts. Plus when you conduct even a small operation, you need to be ready for the big war. If you all remember India in 1971 decided on military operation in April. We started the operation only in December. Granted it is not 1971, but still it takes some time. So what are we expecting? Modi to declare war in a speech?

We need to stay clear of showing any signs of serious military preparation if we are serious about a military strike. Knowing the Pakis, they will escalate and when they do we need to prepare to literally finish them off in a short time. So we need to take our time and do it in a cool and calculated fashion.

I think the Kanwal vid (posted somewhere here) is a great starting point.

India has NO good options (as he stated). And, the longer India waits after such an incident the worse it gets for India. IMHO, it is too late now for the Uri incidence. As he put it, neither Nepal nor SL support India in isolating Pakistan. Go figure, a Hindu and a Buddhist nation at that.

IMHO, no use kicking a diplomat out. Better strategy would be to slowly reduce their presence in India. Insist on the contact of people traveling by Pakistan/Nepal airlines using Indian air space. Don't cut, just make it more difficult - slowly. Get some EU entities to carry the Balouch torch (under Indian direction). The idea is that the world should not notice any of these (more on that some other time). And, the strategy has to be operational 24x7, in a silent mode. And, the people of India need to pitch in too.

Why not re-introduce actors within Pakistan? Take out low level ISI operators.

Modi is going to isolate pakistan as a befitting reply to Uri. I am at loss of words here. Are my ears bleeding? How is he going to isolate china, turkey, saudi, uae, qatar, usa, britain from pakistan? And most of all what is the definition of isolation here?

NRao wrote:IMHO, no use kicking a diplomat out. Better strategy would be to slowly reduce their presence in India. Insist on the contact of people traveling by Pakistan/Nepal airlines using Indian air space. Don't cut, just make it more difficult - slowly. Get some EU entities to carry the Balouch torch (under Indian direction). The idea is that the world should not notice any of these (more on that some other time). And, the strategy has to be operational 24x7, in a silent mode. And, the people of India need to pitch in too.

Rao garu, leave retaliation, do you really think these strategies will act as a deterrence or will stop brass in pindi from planning other attacks? And so long as we are worried about the world, our soldiers and civilians will keep paying price.

While it might satisfy the jingo in me to a great extent if we actually do it, I doubt if such a limited strike can have tangible impact on paki deep states policy towards using terror as an instrument of state policy.A lot of Pakis got whacked in kargil and at the hands of BSF and IA on the borders while trying to infiltrate. Many pakis got whacked by out arty shelling @ ceasefire violations.

The thing is, human life is cheap in bakistan. Just whacking some of them on the border, across the border actually might not help much it seems. They keep sending more.

Whats needed is a regime change in baki army and their way of thinking. All out war is a good way of installing the fear of god and India in baki army as theres no way they can hold out a full blown war with us.Their nukes are the only thing keeping they sorry army alive .

Turkey coup was an example of how a country,if it so chooses,can resist its own military..We must capitalize on our information strengths and get the baki population at large see the reality of baki army and why they need to tame the rabid dogs.

economic warfare and resource warfare is easily achievable without waging war and can be great tools if used correctly.

Baki forums boasted of they being able to "defeat cold start" as their forces have been forward deployed.The gadhas dont realize that our PM just having a meeting and doorknob goswami shouting out his guts was enough for the uniformed jihadis to forward deploy.If this is not g@@nd fatt-ing then i dont know what is ..

Well, that's exactly what the administration has finally arrived at. There is ONLY one option, that is DO NOTHING beyond some platitudes. Seriously, many in the establishment are convinced that not doing anything is the best option. There are no convincing answers otherwise. If any exploration is done to find other options, they all come out convinced it is sub-par.

With this type of paralysis, why would Nepal or SriLanka risk siding with someone who can't even stand up to safeguard ones own interest?The only reason BD and Afghan are supporting is because "moolah" is talking. BD got huge swathe of land for free, and Afghan is getting largesse.

That was more sarcasm than serious. How could lecturing the Paki aam abdul from Bengaluru, Kerala be anything but sarcastic Chankian? It's not like we have a "Voice of India" service run by RAW that clandestinely reaches every radio in the Paki hinterland.

NRao wrote:IMHO, no use kicking a diplomat out. Better strategy would be to slowly reduce their presence in India. Insist on the contact of people traveling by Pakistan/Nepal airlines using Indian air space. Don't cut, just make it more difficult - slowly. Get some EU entities to carry the Balouch torch (under Indian direction). The idea is that the world should not notice any of these (more on that some other time). And, the strategy has to be operational 24x7, in a silent mode. And, the people of India need to pitch in too.

Rao garu, leave retaliation, do you really think these strategies will act as a deterrence or will stop brass in pindi from planning other attacks? And so long as we are worried about the world, our soldiers and civilians will keep paying price.

Somewhere, along the way, logic has no say over matters. As Kanwal points out, the US has lost 100s, if not more, of its service people to Pakistani proxies and yet the US supports Pakistan.

He also goes on to say that three UNSC members are supporting Pakistan: the US (world's oldest democracy), China (a single party, now single person, dictatorial nation) and now Russia. So India does have pretty much everything stacked against her.

Which is why I say target China and operate under the radar. All the time with a big smile and hug everyone.

Another dimension to all this, IMHO, in India herself. Unless Indians do better India is not going anywhere. A trillion dollar investment will mean nothing if Indians cannot have a stable society - in every respect. This is a very touchy subject, but one Indians need to deal with internally on a war footing.

NRao wrote:Another dimension to all this, IMHO, in India herself. Unless Indians do better India is not going anywhere. A trillion dollar investment will mean nothing if Indians cannot have a stable society - in every respect. This is a very touchy subject, but one Indians need to deal with internally on a war footing.

?????

Or anyone will take advantage of India. No progress.

Saar, that requires a different rant that belongs in a different thread. A stable society requires a relentless focus on economic prosperity for every Indian and a ruthless hunting down of those who exploit seams in the country's social fabric. Guess who can do that? A Fascist messenger of death dictator who doesn't give a flying fig about others' opinion of him. Do we have one? *cough* *cough*

I don't understand this argument that "Taking out a terror camp won't change Paki behavior. So, let's not do anything". This assumes that "changing Paki behavior" is the sole desired outcome.

There are several other desirable outcomes to be had by making a few Paki widows:

1) It makes Indians feel good. Especially the martyrs' families, the Army units who lost their colleagues & the aam-aadmi. A 10:1 kill ratio brings a certain degree of satisfaction and a sense of closure. This alone is a good enough reason to retaliate. Justice delayed is justice denied.

2) It reposes the citizens' faith in the government, i.e. "The Govt & Army will take care of us. And if someone harms us, they will pay a heavy price". Imagine a neighbor comes and molests your sister. And your dad wrings his hand, saying that "We can't do anything. Police is incompetent. And if I pick a fight with my neighbor, it will only get worse & will anyway not change his behavior" - will you have any respect for your father?

3) Bumping off a few Pakis will teach a lesson to Pakis residing in India - both the Muslim thugs who riot & the Lutyens media. Their 1st thought will be: "Holy crap! I could be next". This is a time-tested psychological behavior. Happens in families too - if the eldest son gets whacked on the bottom by the dad, the younger ones learn to behave

4) We will reset the Nash Equilibrium. The current equilibrium is the one demonstrated on this thread: hand-wringing, intellectual-masturbation and justification for inaction. Instead, all discussions at babu, neta, media, BRF, foreign government level will shift to: "Ok, how do we accommodate a new/assertive India in our scheme of things". The world has a way of re-adjusting to new equilibriums.

Remember Mao (I think it was Mao), who said: "Sometimes, a loud fart is more effective than a hundred speeches"

Prem Kumar wrote:I don't understand this argument that "Taking out a terror camp won't change Paki behavior. So, let's not do anything". This assumes that "changing Paki behavior" is the sole desired outcome.

In fact taking out the terror camps or attacking such camps should be done every single time there is an attack on our side of LOC/IB. This should done on tit for tat basis plus more till such time terror from Pak completely ceases.

NRao wrote:Another dimension to all this, IMHO, in India herself. Unless Indians do better India is not going anywhere. A trillion dollar investment will mean nothing if Indians cannot have a stable society - in every respect. This is a very touchy subject, but one Indians need to deal with internally on a war footing.

?????

Or anyone will take advantage of India. No progress.

Saar, that requires a different rant that belongs in a different thread. A stable society requires a relentless focus on economic prosperity for every Indian and a ruthless hunting down of those who exploit seams in the country's social fabric. Guess who can do that? A Fascist messenger of death dictator who doesn't give a flying fig about others' opinion of him. Do we have one? *cough* *cough*

Very true. But, it is related to this thread, they are intertwined.

Check out Syria. Russian FM and US SoS make a deal. US DoD does not like it and within a few days something happens to knock the deal off its base. Then there is a report that neither does teh Russian DoD like the deal - could not verify that note, but you know what has happened.

These are the things that India is facing. Parrikar's trust in Carter has to be very, very narrow. Now imagine Modi's (or any PMs) predicament. Heck there is supposed to be a Prez above the SoS and SoD, and yet .....................

Deep State!!!

India needs to tackle this alone, under the radar, yada, yada, yada. IMHO of course. Can be done. BUT, will be volatile for sure. No easy path to the top.

`Some of the things that I have heard mentioned in this thread and other threads post URI attack are:

- Military retaliation ---> May excalate to two front war- Get out of IWT ----> China may help its ally by doing something on the Brahmaputra etc.

And quite a few other statements which basically points to our actions on Pakistan being countered by certain actions by China. Basically we have to manage two fronts at all time.

Which bring us to the question of how do we de-link the two fronts from each other and ensure that the probability of a two front war becomes negligible.

Certain thoughts came to my mind for the same in the past two days. Please forgive if the seem naive, just adding my two cents.

We should engineer circumstances and scenarios which makes US a firm ally of Pakistan. Such an alliance would almost certainly make China extremely circumspect of getting cozy with Pakistan, thus fundamentally breaking the current alliance between the two.

Some would argue that we would just ensure that Pakistan swaps one ally for another,but there is a big difference between the two allies.

From a military point of view China as an ally of Pakistan means the ally of Pakistan is literally sitting on our door and can force us to fight on two fronts, stretching and dividing our land and air resources. However, US as an ally of Pakistan, means that the ally is oceans away from us. US military intervention would have to be naval, which can be more easily managed compared to the China border.

Moreover, US is a far more reluctant ally compared to China and militarily more stretched. Further more, our strength as the second largest market in the world, means that US companies cannot ignore us and would have to continue to invest in India. In such a scenario, US might be pretty reluctant to confront us militarily.

Pakistan always would depend on its big brother for military arms. In any case it would need soft loans to buy them, or free gifts, given its economic strength, or rather lack of it. US hardware is getting exorbitantly expensive and low in production numbers, compared to Chinese hardware. Hence, there is distinct possibility that Pakistan would actually get lesser and lesser number of hardware compared to from China.

Once China moves away from Pakistan, any plans of it for Oil and Good movements through land, using corridors like CPEC goes away. All its Oil and Goods now have to pass through our Seas and Straits. Basically we would siting right on their jugular.

Also, we should get firmly back onto our old friendship with Russia. The old bear is going through difficult times and if we can help it through now, we would get back a firm ally, which basically means that we have an ally who has a land border with China; we start playing the two front game.

As somebody suggested get Iran in too and form a Russia-India-Iran alliance. That would truly check both our neighbours. Moreover, both these countries would appreciate our help in getting their economies get going, hence formation of an alliance is very much a possibility.

Our current tango with US is not getting us much benifit, rather cementing Sino-Pak alliance, which is a way more dangerous proposition for us than a non friendly America. We should broker the marriage between US and Pak to get more breathing space. The world is no more Unipolar, where US as the only dog in town, and it as beneficial to be its friend. Now there are more dogs in town and we too have grown up.

Street cred is street cred. It has value always and has always had value.Execution and leverage of power could be invisible, but it is extremely imperative the results should be very visible. This lack of tact, either of visible execution or of results will reflect on street cred.

ssundar wrote:I don't understand why we don't unilaterally declare Pakistan a terrorist state, withdraw MFN status and terminate consular relationships. At least, place them on a terror watchlist that automatically moves them to "Terrorist State"" status if one more incident occurs within the next 5 years.

Majority of intelligence operations are carried out by persons having diplomatic immunity. If you terminate consular relationships, how will you carry out these operations.

suryag wrote:With China it is only money, india is a big market if they want to take a relook at the river waters so be it we can take a look at anti dumping duties and hurt them economically.

That is where the "Make in India" campaign needs to be executed at war-footing. If Chinese goods are stopped, the prices will increase and people do not have the patience to bear the slightest price increase.

There is government and then there is the political party. A government (and a leader) has the following options:1. Take the right action, even if it means the political party might lose the next election. War, any war, is expensive.2. Do not take any action, but just mouth platitudes and go to the next elections with other achievements.3. Take some action without affecting its electoral victories.

#1 can be carried out only if the circumstances forces the government or is necessary for survival. US attacks after 9/11 and Israel's regular actions are two such examples. US launch of Iraq war was stupid, and not the right thing to do. The World is paying the price. In either case, the people have to be prepared. In Israel most of the people are ready for its actions, while there are sizeable Jews who are ot Zionist or fundamentalists. The general mood is to punish the attackers.

Modi and BJP are probably going with the 3rd option. Diplomatic pressure and isolation of Pakistan is the least expensive for the average Ramu, Ravi and Raju of India.

Will, say 10 lakh people, or even 1 lakh people, congregate in any Indian city to tell Modi to take immediate visible action? If that is not going to happen, one can only expect slow and steady retaliation. Sometimes it is not going to be visible.

Some of the low level fruits are the removal of MFN status, and announcing Pakistan as a terrorist state. The second one could end up like Hanuman's tail with a giant slippery slope.

Modi needs to be able to step up and list out the things India did, say after 6 or 12 months. Else he will be seen as a biryani chef onlee.

Prem Kumar wrote:I don't understand this argument that "Taking out a terror camp won't change Paki behavior. So, let's not do anything". This assumes that "changing Paki behavior" is the sole desired outcome.

There are several other desirable outcomes to be had by making a few Paki widows:

1) It makes Indians feel good. Especially the martyrs' families, the Army units who lost their colleagues & the aam-aadmi. A 10:1 kill ratio brings a certain degree of satisfaction and a sense of closure. This alone is a good enough reason to retaliate. Justice delayed is justice denied.

2) It reposes the citizens' faith in the government, i.e. "The Govt & Army will take care of us. And if someone harms us, they will pay a heavy price". Imagine a neighbor comes and molests your sister. And your dad wrings his hand, saying that "We can't do anything. Police is incompetent. And if I pick a fight with my neighbor, it will only get worse & will anyway not change his behavior" - will you have any respect for your father?

3) Bumping off a few Pakis will teach a lesson to Pakis residing in India - both the Muslim thugs who riot & the Lutyens media. Their 1st thought will be: "Holy crap! I could be next". This is a time-tested psychological behavior. Happens in families too - if the eldest son gets whacked on the bottom by the dad, the younger ones learn to behave

4) We will reset the Nash Equilibrium. The current equilibrium is the one demonstrated on this thread: hand-wringing, intellectual-masturbation and justification for inaction. Instead, all discussions at babu, neta, media, BRF, foreign government level will shift to: "Ok, how do we accommodate a new/assertive India in our scheme of things". The world has a way of re-adjusting to new equilibriums.

Remember Mao (I think it was Mao), who said: "Sometimes, a loud fart is more effective than a hundred speeches"

Unfortunately we now have elected representatives who are all phuskies. We had the same thing in UPA-II and now post-UPA-II the same thing. Forget made in India. What could have been the poster boy of Made-In-India the MMRCA tender was closed off by our defence minister by saying that “I also feel like having a BMW and Mercedes. But I don’t because I can’t afford it. First I can’t afford it and second I don’t need it. So, 126 Rafales was economically unviable. It was not required.”

There will be more attacks after Uri and still there will not be any response. Somebody needs to teach our politicians on how the invasion of Sindh happened in the 7th century BC.

One needs to look from a political angle. All the arguments that we are making for Modi can be made for MMS too. If Modi has to look at electoral equations, then MMS had to look at electoral equations as well. So what can differentiate Modi and MMS? How can BJP differentiate itself from INC?

Considering that India needs to do several things, the only way Modi/BJP can come back to the people is by clearly demonstrating their accomplishments they did in the areas of diplomacy, cultural, economic and militarily. Mere speeches will not do. Show military capacity building to the people.