Site Mobile Navigation

Off-Year Races May Provide Insight

Supporters cheering President Obama's remarks in support of Gov. Jon S. Corzine, campaigning Sunday in Camden, N.J.Credit
Luke Sharrett/The New York Times

WASHINGTON — One year after the election of President Obama, a handful of off-year political contests — including governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia and a Congressional race in upstate New York — offer some clues about how Americans are viewing Mr. Obama, as well as an early measure of the landscape for next year’s midterm elections.

But precisely what kind of clues? How much significance should be read into contests that will be determined by a small pool of voters in two states and one Congressional district?

Off-year elections are typically the subject of frenzied discussion and overinterpretation by political observers — though rarely, it seems, as frenzied this year, a reflection of the heightened interest in politics created by Mr. Obama’s rise.

“These are bellwether races — not just as a referendum on this administration, but on our party as well,” said Michael Steele, the chairman of the Republican National Committee. “This administration is so out of step with the heartbeat of this country, and that’s going to be apparent on Tuesday. You’ve got a smiling chairman on the phone.”

Joel Benenson, the pollster for Mr. Obama and Gov. Jon S. Corzine, the New Jersey Democrat struggling for re-election, dismissed that argument, saying elections were isolated episodes with no long-term political meaning. “I really think this is an obsession of the media,” Mr. Benenson said. “The reality is that all these elections have very unique dynamics. People read too much into things and try to nationalize races that have local dynamics.”

Still, at a time of such political turmoil in Washington, and a year ahead of what promises to be a hard-fought midterm election, it seems difficult to argue that there are no lessons to be drawn from what happens Tuesday. On Saturday, in the upstate Congressional district, the Republican Party candidate quit in the face of a wave of criticism from conservatives who said she was too moderate, signaling the dominance of the conservative wing of the party and the likelihood of similar challenges by conservatives to moderate candidates in races across the country next year.

At the very least, the results in the governors’ races, if not predictive, are quite likely to drive the political narrative, bolstering or diminishing Mr. Obama’s political stature as he seeks to rally a divided party. The outcome could, to a limited degree, help measure whether Mr. Obama’s success last year was a phenomenon limited to him or the early signs of a long-term Democratic resurgence. And it may offer a hint of the thinking of independent voters, the real swing group in American politics, who were so critical to Mr. Obama’s success and who polls suggested have been put off by Mr. Obama policies.

With that in mind, here are things to watch for when the results start coming in.

1)Virginia. Mr. Obama won this state, becoming the first presidential candidate to put Virginia in the Democratic column since 1964. That has given Democrats hope that they had found a formula to win, in part, appealing to independent voters while pushing up turnout among Democrats.

With polls suggesting that the Democratic candidate, R. Creigh Deeds, is heading for a loss, here is one important question on Election Night: Do independent voters who rallied around Mr. Obama swing to the Republican candidate, Robert F. McDonnell, as signaled by polls finding that these voters have been put off by Mr. Obama’s policies?

“It appeared that the policies of the administration were dragging Deeds down rather than helping him,” said Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican who is head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “I think this is the closest thing there is to a referendum on President Obama and his policies.”

2) New Jersey. Win or lose, the results of this race probably will not say much about either the state of the parties in New Jersey or across the country. But a loss for Mr. Corzine would be a headache for Mr. Obama, who invested political capital in this race in a way he conspicuously did not in Virginia; he made two appearances with Mr. Corzine in New Jersey, including on Sunday.

An error has occurred. Please try again later.

You are already subscribed to this email.

That, more than anything, could be a clue to whether Mr. Obama has the ability to turn out his voters for anyone beside himself. That is a lesson that will not be lost on Congressional Democrats facing re-election who are being asked by the president to cast votes that could hurt them at the polls next November.

“The turnout level will be an indication of the energy on the Democratic and Republican side,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

3)A Governors Blow-Out for Republicans. Fairly or not, a Republican sweep in the races for governor would most likely be interpreted as a verdict on Mr. Obama’s first year in office. This will enable Republicans to argue that Mr. Obama overreached and that they have arrested their slide. That argument could make it easier for Republicans to raise money and recruit candidates for next year. And in Washington, it could give pause to moderate Democrats already worried about seeking re-election next year after casting tough votes for Mr. Obama.

4)New York’s 23rd Congressional District. This is one race that does appear to have clear national implications. The contest turned into a two-way fight between a Democrat, Bill Owens, and a conservative, Douglas L. Hoffman, over the weekend after the candidate of the Republican Party, Dede Scozzafava, quit in the face of opposition from conservatives across the country upset with her moderate views on issues like abortion rights, gay rights and some fiscal policies.

Even before Election Day, the power of the conservative wing in the Republican Party has been proved. If Mr. Hoffman wins, it will embolden conservatives who have argued that it is a mistake for Republicans to think that the only way to get back into power is to start running more moderate candidates.

All of this has given Democrats at least one glimmer of hope.

“That divide between moderate Republicans” and their party’s conservative wing will not end Wednesday morning, said Tim Kaine, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee and the departing governor of Virginia. “That is going to be around for a while.”

A version of this news analysis appears in print on November 2, 2009, on Page A18 of the New York edition with the headline: Outcomes of Off-Year Races May Provide Insight. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe