Quoted for added effect. This really is the key takeaway. Bitcoin probabilities are inherently "awkward" to look at under a microscope. You can look at the last 2 days for an example of that, the network has had more than one period of an hour without a block from *any* pool on the network. It has also had periods of 7 blocks in 20 minutes.

Quoted for added effect. This really is the key takeaway. Bitcoin probabilities are inherently "awkward" to look at under a microscope. You can look at the last 2 days for an example of that, the network has had more than one period of an hour without a block from *any* pool on the network. It has also had periods of 7 blocks in 20 minutes.

Quoted for added effect. This really is the key takeaway. Bitcoin probabilities are inherently "awkward" to look at under a microscope. You can look at the last 2 days for an example of that, the network has had more than one period of an hour without a block from *any* pool on the network. It has also had periods of 7 blocks in 20 minutes.

The luck discussion and the confusion from some folks reminds me of poker, a game where luck matters in descending order: hand to hand; hour to hour; session to session; week to week; month to month; year to year; career.

The age of online poker helped bring that into focus for me when I got to the point where I was playing more hands in a few days than live players played in a year. I've seen live players think they were either gods or terribly unlucky because they've either won or lost for months.

In reality it's little more than a streak—statistically speaking—and it's easier to understand that with hand databases and charts that stretch out into the hundreds of thousands or millions. When you're playing 2,000 hands a day (and there are lots of players who play(ed) far more than that), you ride those same streaks, but they play out in hours, not months. That brought me a lot of clarity in understanding variance.

With mining, the factors governing your rewards are your share of the total network, difficulty, and luck (which is an anti-fancy word for variance). All pools do is decrease variance to the point where mere mortals can eke out a slim profit margin or have fun trying. The larger the pool, the lower your personal variance...

Average blocks solved per hour is way down on the entire Network for some reason. Lately it's been 8-10 per hour according to my BTCmon iPhone app. And since the last difficulty change it's been under 6 per hour.

Average blocks solved per hour is way down on the entire Network for some reason. Lately it's been 8-10 per hour according to my BTCmon iPhone app. And since the last difficulty change it's been under 6 per hour.

That is why the difficulty changed, because blocks were being found too quickly.6 per hour is the target rate. Immediately after a difficulty change, that is what you would expect to get.

Average blocks solved per hour is way down on the entire Network for some reason. Lately it's been 8-10 per hour according to my BTCmon iPhone app. And since the last difficulty change it's been under 6 per hour.

That is why the difficulty changed, because blocks were being found too quickly.6 per hour is the target rate. Immediately after a difficulty change, that is what you would expect to get.

Has the network hashrate increase slowed down a bit? Is that why it has returned to its normal block solve rate? If so, it's just a matter of time before the next wave of ASICs causes another spike.

Average blocks solved per hour is way down on the entire Network for some reason. Lately it's been 8-10 per hour according to my BTCmon iPhone app. And since the last difficulty change it's been under 6 per hour.

That is why the difficulty changed, because blocks were being found too quickly.6 per hour is the target rate. Immediately after a difficulty change, that is what you would expect to get.

Has the network hashrate increase slowed down a bit? Is that why it has returned to its normal block solve rate? If so, it's just a matter of time before the next wave of ASICs causes another spike.

Both me and my Dad's Saturn earnings have dropped considerably here. I just want to confirm, just a couple weeks ago we were at .4 24 hour earnings. Right now both of us are at .13% now. Are those earnings ever likely to rise at all, or that's basically what we are looking at with 280Gh/s average here now? I know, everyone throws the luck word at me and I guess it does sound like whining a bit, but you do take %3 fee so you are making something right? I guess I'm just looking for an advanced user to indicate we'll never see our earnings go back up or we eventually will. Things are moving very fast. When we first started we were at .5%. How quickly it drops, but in my mind I'm thinking hey BTC price is rising big time....I'll make a little more return, but in fact making less. Trying to wrap that around my head, that's all.

Sorry if I seem like a novice, I am. We all started at some point, right?

Both me and my Dad's Saturn earnings have dropped considerably here. I just want to confirm, just a couple weeks ago we were at .4 24 hour earnings. Right now both of us are at .13% now. Are those earnings ever likely to rise at all, or that's basically what we are looking at with 280Gh/s average here now? I know, everyone throws the luck word at me and I guess it does sound like whining a bit, but you do take %3 fee so you are making something right? I guess I'm just looking for an advanced user to indicate we'll never see our earnings go back up or we eventually will. Things are moving very fast. When we first started we were at .5%. How quickly it drops, but in my mind I'm thinking hey BTC price is rising big time....I'll make a little more return, but in fact making less. Trying to wrap that around my head, that's all.

Sorry if I seem like a novice, I am. We all started at some point, right?

the red stairstep is hashing difficulty, yes, your take decreases with time

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.

Opentoe, the thing we've been talking about is that there is a persistent decrease in rewards per resource (i.e. hashing power) that is inescapable. It manifests in two ways.

The first is the increase in total network hashing power. It's always increasing, and thus any existing chunk becomes a smaller percentage of that whole with every increase.

The second is the increase in difficulty, which is an artificial means of choking the effect of the ever growing network. (Related: If, for some reason, the network contracted, the difficulty would decrease.)

Those two effect inexorably whittle away at your rewards.

But luck will also reduce or add to your rewards. The effect you have personally seen is what happens when an increase in difficulty coincides with a far steeper-than-usual, short-term decrease in luck. If our pool luck returns to normal (it will, and it already has as part of the natural course of events), you will see your rewards rise, but not to the level they were before previous difficulty increases.

If we get really lucky (which is likely at some point, for a short period of time), you could even see your rewards for that short term exceed what you saw before—luck could more than compensate for the inflationary network effects mentioned above, but only for short periods.

Most of the ROI calculators I've seen take this depreciation into account, BTW. Some of them allow you to input your own parameters, too.

I wanted to drop by and say hello and say a big ol' thanks to eleuthria. My friend quit mining and gave me his 5 ASIC miners he had and since I have access to free electricity I followed a tutorial and used my Rpi to setup a small mining rig in a DC. The tutorial mentioned BTCguild and setup an account and it's been going great so far. I'll most likely be donating most of my coins to various places but regardless as long as the ASIC miners keep running I'll keep the power flowing to them; I hate e-waste and will run the USB erupters until they don't function and then will recycle them.

Anyway, the website is awesome, very user friendly, and can't wait to see what these things can do!

Maybe it's just me and where i am from, the south. But shouldn't luck be called production? IE more work/stuff getting made in the same amount of time? For example PPS pays a flat rate no matter how production your miner has done in X amount of time. But PPLNS is like you'll paid buy how much work you get done in X amount of time, sometimes more (more BTC) sometimes less (less then PPS pays out).. Kinda like being hourly workers at a plant vs managers who are on yearly salaries.

Maybe it's just me and where i am from, the south. But shouldn't luck be called production? IE more work/stuff getting made in the same amount of time? For example PPS pays a flat rate no matter how production your miner has done in X amount of time. But PPLNS is like you'll paid buy how much work you get done in X amount of time, sometimes more (more BTC) sometimes less (less then PPS pays out).. Kinda like being hourly workers at a plant vs managers who are on yearly salaries.

Let me know if i am off.. or just wayyy off

semantics, but yes

we also use "production" in logging, in IT they might say "throughput"

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.

so when can i buy block erupters for 10 for .01 BTC? The value of btc has skyrocketed, and the price of those things hasn't moved all week...

They have never been priced based on USD. They make BTC, and they're sold for BTC. The only part that is based on USD (international shipping and USB price which is essentially shipping) have already been adjusted.

so when can i buy block erupters for 10 for .01 BTC? The value of btc has skyrocketed, and the price of those things hasn't moved all week...

They have never been priced based on USD. They make BTC, and they're sold for BTC. The only part that is based on USD (international shipping and USB price which is essentially shipping) have already been adjusted.

that maybe true but that is still a 2 faced statement...

The reason why i say that is due to they take actual Fiat to manafacture. So all in all the price is effected via Fiat.