Obama's road to re-election a tough slog

WASHINGTON POST

November 5, 2011Updated: November 5, 2011 10:07pm

One year out from the 2012 election, President Barack Obama faces the most difficult re-election environment of any White House incumbent in two decades, with economic woes at the center of the public's concerns, an electorate that is deeply pessimistic and sharply polarized, and growing questions about the president's capacity to lead.

Those factors alone portend the possibility that Obama could become the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush, who was defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992 at a time of economic problems and similar anger with the political establishment in Washington.

To win a second term, Obama probably will have to overcome the highest rate of unemployment in an election year of any president in the post-World War II era.

GOP has own woes

Last year's midterm election victories have made Republicans eager for 2012. But public disaffection with the party and a muddled battle for the GOP nomination leave open the possibility that Republicans will not be able to capitalize on the conditions that have put the president on the defensive.

Failure could produce the kind of disappointment that would trigger recriminations and an examination of the party's priorities, tactics and leadership.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains the candidate to beat, but so far he has not been able to consolidate support or generate enthusiasm in a party that is more conservative than he is.

What can be said at this point is that, after three years of pitched battles between Obama and congressional Republicans, the country is heading toward a high-stakes election.

Translator

To read this article in one of Houston's most-spoken languages, click on the button below.

Election 2012 will be a contest not just between two candidates, but also between two starkly different views of the role of government that underscore the enormous differences between Republicans and Democrats.

More negative

Given the public mood and the president's standing, the 2012 election will bring a dramatic shift from the hope-and-change enthusiasm generated by Obama's first run for the White House. The race will be not only more competitive, but also far more negative.

Geographically, the election will be won or lost in roughly a dozen states, beginning with most of those Obama took away from the Republicans in his first election, but including a handful of traditional battlegrounds that may be more competitive than they were in 2008.

Independents hold key

Independents, whose allegiances have shifted rapidly, will again hold the key to the outcome. But Obama's hopes depend, too, on his ability to regenerate the coalition of African-Americans, Latinos, younger voters and suburbanites that elected him. Among many of those groups, he has work to do.

Those conclusions are drawn from a new national poll by The Washington Post and ABC News and from interviews with elected officials, party strategists and senior advisers in the Obama and Republican presidential campaigns.

Two views

A pair of politicians who have served as two-term governors and as chairmen of their respective parties agreed that the president is looking at a difficult re-election campaign, but still enjoys advantages inherent to any incumbent.

"When people look at the condition of the country, particularly the economic condition … and then look at President Obama's policies, which have made that condition worse, not better, I believe the majority will vote for a change, to get the country back on the right track," said Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a Republican.

"But it's anything but a given, and you shouldn't ever bet against an incumbent."

Ed Rendell, the former governor of Pennsylvania, said there are three ways the president can win: through improvements in the economy, which he acknowledged look questionable, given forecasts; through the failure of Republicans to nominate a strong candidate, or through missteps by congressional Republicans that could alienate crucial independent voters. Though the path for Obama remains perilous, said Rendell, a Democrat,