Bernie Sanders needs a lot more than Michigan to beat Hillary Clinton

Sen. Bernie Sanders' surprising, come-from-behind victory in Michigan on Tuesday injected new life into his presidential bid, and raised the possibility he could out-perform expectations in upcoming Rust Belt contests.

But his victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Wolverine State didn't fundamentally alter the fact that Sanders remains a long shot to capture the Democratic nomination.

Despite winning Michigan, Sanders came away from Tuesday's contests further behind in the delegate race. That was thanks to Clinton's crushing victory in Mississippi, where she picked up the vast majority of the delegates.

Democrats say Sanders would need to notch similarly massive victory margins in Tuesday's races in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri — where polls show him down by double digits — if that course were to change.

"On a night where you win more delegates than the other person, it doesn't fundamentally change who's likelier to be the Democratic nominee."

"He's going to keep winning races; he's going to stay in this campaign," said J.J. Balaban, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic ad maker. "But it’s important not to overplay it. On a night where you win more delegates than the other person, it doesn't fundamentally change who's likelier to be the Democratic nominee."

Promising signs

To be sure, the results out of Michigan had nuggets of promise for Sanders when considering his odds in Tuesday's contests, which take place in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri — Rust Belt states with similar demographics to Michigan.

All three states have open primaries, allowing independent voters to cast their ballots. Sanders won independents in Michigan — which made up a quarter of the Democratic primary electorate — with 70%, according to CNNexit poll data.

And while Sanders only garnered a third of the black vote, according to CNN's exit polls, it was higher than the 10% of black voters who supported him in the Deep South. That jump in support helped deny Clinton a victory in Michigan, and could cut into her leads if the results are similar in Tuesday's races.

Democrats attribute Sanders' gains in the state to his anti-trade message, which may have resonated in Michigan, given that the state lost thousands of manufacturing jobs overseas.

That message will likely play best in Ohio, which is most similar to Michigan —both in its economy and demographics.

But Democrats say structural disadvantages there could prevent a Sanders upset.

Unlike Michigan, which does not have early voting, Ohioans have been casting ballots in the state for the past three weeks.

With Clinton having a double-digit polling lead there, thousands of Democrats may have already voted for her — a potential roadblock for Sanders' Michigan momentum.

"Early voting in Ohio starts roughly 28 days before the primary, so many Ohioans have already voted," said Chris Redfern, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party and Clinton supporter. "So the impact of momentum coming out of Michigan for Sen. Sanders, I think that is overwrought and I don’t know it impacts Hillary’s chances in Ohio."

Democrats add that in Illinois, Sanders' trade message may not pack as big a punch.

While parts of Illinois were hurt by a decline in manufacturing jobs, the state's economy is more diverse, with a large financial sector in Chicago and an agricultural mecca down state.

Neither sector has shown particular hostility to trade agreements, with a number of congressional Democrats in the opting to vote for President Barack Obama's Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal.

"The fluke in Michigan is not happening in Illinois," said Tom Bowen, an Illinois Democrat who worked as an aide to Obama and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. "No way."

"The fluke in Michigan is not happening in Illinois. No way."

More obstacles

Even if Sanders massively out-performs polling expectations to notch wins in Ohio, Illinois or Missouri on Tuesday, other contests voting that night present him with more problems.

Clinton is expected to win handily in Florida and North Carolina that same day — two delegate-rich states with large minority and elderly populations that favor Clinton's candidacy. Large wins there could erase any delegate gains Sanders could make Tuesday night.

Sanders' campaign did not respond to requests for comments about their expectations on Tuesday.

But Democrats said there's no way to understate how important massive victories in those three Midwestern states — as well as future contests in Rust Belt states such as Indiana and Pennsylvania — are to Sanders' hopes.

Very possible Sanders will win more states than Clinton without coming especially close to her in pledged delegates.

"Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, those are the states that if you're sanders that you’ve got to be looking at to keep the Michigan momentum going," said Mike Fraioli, a longtime Democratic fundraiser whose clients have strong ties to organized labor. "If [delegate awarding is] all proportional, unless he just absolutely clobbers Hillary Clinton in one or all of those, which is unlikely, he’s going to continue to gain delegates but I don’t think he can gain enough delegates to catch her. He will gain delegates and be relevant at the convention, but I think that’s as best as it can go."

"He will gain delegates and be relevant at the convention, but I think that’s as best as it can go."

Clinton's campaign made that same argument to reporters in a Wednesday conference call.

"He bet big [in Michigan] and he pulled it out after a hard fight, but he still ended up behind in the delegate race," Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said, adding, "We are confident that we are nearing the point where our delegate lead will effectively become insurmountable."

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