I know it's not fair because the other candidates are not held to that standard, but he will have to overcome a little bit more than the other guys. The only other candidate on the list that is held to Dirk's standard is Billups and he wont win it either.

MVP is a popularity contest. Dirk isnt very popular.

The MVP vote is not a popularity contest, it is a vote for who is the best player in the NBA. Dirk is no where in the vincinity of being the best player in the NBA. He is a solid all-star reserve.