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Yeah, I have my doubts Tan Malaka's Republic would last. But rather then from civil war, I'd say it will be from allied invasion. IOTL, in the face of eventual Japanese invasion, native politicians proposed to colonial government to conscript Indonesian soldiers, which was refused. Understandably so, since once Indonesians are armed, they will stay so, which wasn't in their interest. I'd say their thinking will stay the same ITTL. Of course, Tan Malaka's regime will only last as long as the Japanese can support it, and once Indonesia falls into Allied hands, a conservative regime will be established over the country.

The Japanese sphere of influence in this timeline is limited to SE Asia and parts of China. I'm wondering about whether or not there will be a significant civil war in Indonesia. Islamic or not I'm sure much of the conservative population of Indonesia would be unwilling to go with Tan Malaka, or a minority of conservatives/rich people could be propped up by Western powers in lieu of the Netherlands.