Daily Archives: October 15, 2018

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to work across the state and will soon be replaced by frosty cold temperatures. The numbers drop big time over the next few mornings, bringing a hard frost and light freeze to the region. Then comes another system and cold blast for the weekend.

Many areas have picked up 1″-2″ of rain since Sunday, with locally higher amounts. The rains will slowly move away this afternoon and evening…

The air behind this is downright cold and will take parts of the state deep into the 30s tonight…

Another weak front drops in on Wednesday, but has no precipitation to work with. That will bring even colder air in here for Thursday morning as temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. These numbers will effectively end the growing season…

This takes us to the weekend and another system moving in, unleashing even colder air into early next week. Rain is likely Friday into Saturday with the air behind this trying to produce a few Ohio Valley snowflakes…

Temps behind that will likely drop into the 20s for lows, bringing a freeze to much of the region.

Once again… Watch the final week of the month for a major amplification across the eastern half of the country.

Good Monday, everyone. Our new week is off and running on a very wet note with rounds of showers and a few storms targeting the Commonwealth. Frosty cold air will follow this action into the middle of the week, with a little more interesting look taking shape by the weekend.

I’ve also got a couple of season models that show an interesting setup for the upcoming winter. We will get to that in a bit, but let’s begin with where we are now.

A boundary is stalled across the state, with a wave of low pressure running along it. This is bringing locally heavy rains our way. We are also seeing a big temperate gradient with the southeast being much warmer than everyone else. Here are your tracking toys for the day…

Chilly surges in behind the rain as it moves out later tonight and early Tuesday morning as temps drop deep into the 30s for areas where skies clear…

Mid and upper 30s show back up on Wednesday, but Thursday morning may bring a killing frost or light freeze our way. Readings could hit the freezing mark or a little below…

From there, it’s all eyes on another big blast of cold moving in for the weekend and early next week. This may be introduced by a potent storm system working across the region Friday and Saturday…

That’s a lot of cold coming in behind that system and it may be enough to produce some Ohio Valley snowflakes. Temps may head deep into the 20s for lows.

I’m continuing to point toward the final week of October for the first storm signal of the cold season showing up across the eastern half of the country. Some of the medium range models are beginning to sniff something out…

Winter is fast approaching and I’ve been busy doing my annual homework for the winter forecast. I also like to check out the seasonal models to see what they are saying. The Japanese Model has had a good run this year, so It certainly has a hot hand.

The new seasonal run for December through February shows a lot of blocking in areas where you want to see it for cold weather in our region. Check out the deep trough it has across much of the country for the winter…

That’s showing 500mb height anomalies and not temp anomalies.

The UKMET seasonal model does things a little differently. It breaks things down by percentages. It has a low chance for above normal temps, with a much greater chance for below normal temps…

Given those percentages, you can see how the model anticipates a setup similar to what the Japanese is showing. If those are right… Giddy up!

I may throw you another update later today. Until then, make it a great Monday and take care.