This video provides an overview of how computer models work. It explains the process of data assimilation, which is necessary to ensure that models are tied to reality. The video includes a discussion of weather models using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) model and climate models using the MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) technique.

Teaching Tips

The contemporary 'nature of science' involves the union of science, mathematics, and technology where computer-coded equations are solved to help understand satellite and ground observations and predict future conditions.

This video can be used to introduce the roles of data, scientists, and computer models in predicting weather and climate conditions.

About the Science

The animation includes several examples of visual results of computer model runs. While there is some advanced reference to the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) and current NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center approaches, the visuals may help general audiences understand the scientific material.

Passed initial science review - expert science review pending.

About the Pedagogy

Prefacing the video with a definition of computer models as "systems of equations that represent physical systems" may help prepare students to understand the abstract concepts of weather and climate models.

You may want to follow the video with a review of data assimilation, in which models run forward to make predictions, then actual observations are brought into the system (assimilated) to give the model an accurate snapshot of reality before making the next set of predictions.

Technical Details/Ease of Use

Next Generation Science Standards
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Video supports:

High School

Disciplinary Core Ideas: 5

HS-ESS2.A1:Earth’s systems, being dynamic and interacting, cause feedback effects that can increase or decrease the original changes.

HS-ESS2.D1:The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space.

HS-ESS2.D4:Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.

HS-ESS3.D1:Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts.

HS-ESS3.D2:Through computer simulations and other studies, important discoveries are still being made about how the ocean, the atmosphere, and the biosphere interact and are modified in response to human activities.

Cross Cutting Concepts: 3

HS-C4.2:When investigating or describing a system, the boundaries and initial conditions of the system need to be defined and their inputs and outputs analyzed and described using models.

HS-C4.3:Models (e.g., physical, mathematical, computer models) can be used to simulate systems and interactions—including energy, matter, and information flows—within and between systems at different scales.

HS-C4.4:Models can be used to predict the behavior of a system, but these predictions have limited precision and reliability due to the assumptions and approximations inherent in models.