On Sunday, Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog of Groundhog Day, will emerge from his burrow in Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. If he sees his shadow and flees, then we're facing more winter weather. If not, then we'll have an early spring.

At least, that's the legend. Scientifically speaking, how accurate is this method of weather prediction? Matt Daniel of EarthSky crunched numbers last year and, after defining the term "long winter," concluded that Phil is a terrible meteorologist. Since 1886, he has predicted the weather accurately only 39% of the time. So your best bet is to prepare for the opposite of whatever he indicates on Sunday.