Welcome to the future of forecasting

Augur combines the magic of prediction markets with the power of a decentralized network to create a stunningly accurate forecasting tool - and the chance for real money trading profits

What is Augur?

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Get rewarded for your knowledge and insight

Augur is a prediction market platform that rewards you for correctly predicting future real-world events.

Predict the outcome of real-world events

You make your predictions by trading virtual shares in the outcome of events happening in the real-world. If you think Hillary Clinton will be elected President, the Yankees will win the World Series, or Leonardo DiCaprio will win another Oscar, then you'll buy shares in those outcomes. If you buy shares in the correct outcomes, you'll win real money profits.

Earn real-money trading profits

The prices of the shares you trade in any event adds up to one dollar - so if you buy a share at even odds it will cost you 50 cents. If you end up being right, you'll get back one dollar for every share you bought. If you're wrong then you've lost the money used to buy your shares. As with any market, the price of shares fluctuates over time. As more people buy shares in an outcome, the price of that outcome will rise while the price of other outcomes will fall. This gives you further opportunities for profit - by buying low and selling high, before the final result of the market is known.

Stunningly accurate forecasts on any topic

Augur's prediction markets provide powerful predictive data - you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening.

The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the "The Wisdom of the Crowd". This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom - which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group.

Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money - which incentivises market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.

Decentralization: Augur's secret weapon

Existing on a decentralized network gives Augur a unique edge over other prediction markets.

No central servers

Augur is a decentralized platform built on the Ethereum blockchain - which means no central servers that can be switched off.

Create your own markets

Using Augur, anyone, anywhere in the world can quickly and easily create a prediction market asking a question about anything. As a market creator you'll provide some initial funding for the market and in return receive half of all trading fees collected during the lifetime of that market.

Low fees

Augur's fees are set by users, and are vastly lower compared to traditional trading and betting platforms.

Crowdsourced reporting

In centralized markets, one person determines the final market outcomes - which means there can be mistakes or outright manipulation. With Augur, we'll have thousands reporting on market outcomes using a one-of-a kind consensus based system and a unique token called REPutation. As a reporter, you'll report on events every two months and, in return, receive half of all fees in the system multiplied by the percent of REP you own.The full scoop on REP

Safe, automated payments

All funds are stored in smart contracts - eliminating counterparty risk and allowing fast, automated payments to winning traders. Depositing and withdrawing funds are also completely automated using the blockchain. With no human intervention required, there's no human error.

Try Augur now...for free!

After months of development we are pleased to release the beta version of Augur. This early version showcases the core features of our prediction market platform. We're still actively developing the software and working on design, but we'd love to hear your honest and unfiltered feedback about our work so far.

Joey KrugCo-founder & Lead Back-End Developer

Joey took a leave of absence from Pomona College to focus full time on Augur. He conducted the first Bitcoin transaction via sound as well as the first Bitcoin transaction via iOS-Android Bluetooth LE. Joey is one of the 2016 Thiel Fellows. Before creating Augur, he and Jack completed Sidecoin, which allows new cryptocurrency distributions based on "snapshots" of Bitcoin account balances. He works on Augur's back-end codebase (its Ethereum smart contracts). He is currently making Augur's consensus implementation faster and more accurate. Joey worked on Bitcoin merchant solutions and enjoys hardware tinkering and game development. He was his high school valedictorian and a senior officer of his college investment club.

Stephen SprinkleSenior Front-End Developer

Stephen brings a level of familiarity and comfort to the start-up and scaling phases of product design and development having either founded or co-founded a series of ventures previously. His former projects include Cryptoping and address watching service, Certle which provides technical certification tracking and Giving.io, a mobile donations platform for faith institutions. Being a relatively early adopter of Bitcoin has helped influence his growing passion for decentralized applications and the cryptocurrencies that support them. He is looking forward to contributing to the front-end initiative of the Augur and its truly novel form of research and insight that's provided in a resilient manner.

John DanzFront-End Developer

John has experience working in small software companies with big clients and brings an agile “wear many hats” ability to the Augur team. His work has allowed him to build pages and applications with clients such as Eli Lilly, Scholastic, and Pearson Education. He has experience with all manner of browser quirks, a proficiency in JavaScript, a passion to learn all there is to know about JavaScript applications, and the ever growing ecosystem that surrounds JavaScript. Although relatively new to developing decentralized software powered by cryptocurrency, John is excited to jump headfirst into this new and ground breaking field.

Ryan GarnerBack-End Developer

Ryan is a programmer skilled in C++ and Basic. Before joining Augur he designed an improved quadratic fee structure, created a routine for automatically distributing the labor of judges to achieve a target accuracy, and designed a way to calculate re-adjudication bonds based on opportunity cost. In Ryan's spare time he enjoys researching and discussing futurology, decentralization, concepts derived from quantum nature, and use cases of DAOs. Additionally, Ryan has an interest in World War II strategy and analyzing the cost-benefit relationship of equipment, this interest lead to Ryan creating the largest WWII realism mod for Wesnoth. Ryan is on /r/Augur using the handle imkharn.

Petr BaudisBack-End Developer

Petr Baudis manages a special R&D project within Augur to build a reporter helper system that uses Artificial Intelligence (Natural Language Processing) to recommend answers to questions about predicted outcomes on reporters' ballots. Petr is an authority on the subject as the team leader of YodaQA, a widely recognized global initiative to build a lighterweight, open-source Q&A alternative to IBM Watson. He's fluent in Computer Go, continuous black-box optimization, combinatorial game theory, Monte Carlo simulations, information extraction from unstructured text, C++, Java, Python, Perl, Linux, and Unix. He has a Masters in Theoretical Computer Science at Charles University and is currently a PhD candidate at Czech Tech University. He worked for Novartis, Novell and Sirius Labs and participated in the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology annual Text Retrieval Conference on LiveQA.

Tom KysarProduct Manager

Tom is an internet marketer, manager, and developer. He first joined Koinify in 2014, where he was the head of marketing, campaigning two crowd-funds for ~5,000+ BTC. He later joined Tierion as director of growth, helping build an engine to generate cryptographic proofs of any file or data with the Bitcoin blockchain. Tom has a lifelong interest in affiliate marketing and building side-projects. He helped build the Comma.ai beta driving explorer, and used to run one of the largest Bitcoin faucets online. Tom withdrew from university after his freshman year to move to San Francisco, where he has since been working within the cryptocurrency industry.

Tony SakichDirector of Marketing

Tony managed the first, bitcoin-related national TV ad campaign, the most successful social media campaign in the cryptocurrency space to date, as the Marketing Manager for BitPay. That capped 10+ years of work on digital campaigns with Microsoft, PayPal, ESPN, Warner Bros. and other tech and entertainment groups. He is obsessed with decentralization and bayesian probability, making him a perfect fit for Augur. His podcast decentralize.fm (also on iTunes and Sticher) features bleeding-edge projects and celebrities. He specializes in promoting decentralized software products and platforms. Tony's philosophy on marketing focuses on transparency, customer interaction and making the project as easy to understand as possible.

Ivan PetricMarketeer

Ivan is from Croatia, born and raised in Zagreb, where he graduated in Economics. His family is in the publishing business (school books and other educational materials) for over 4 decades. He mostly works in marketing, and he intends to be among the first to apply blockchain technology to schoolbooks/textbooks to help young generations get as much as knowledge possible at early age. When Ivan read about Bitcoin and the blockchain for the first time, he declared it a new "internet" or a new "steam locomotive". He believes in the new speeds, connections, transparency, savings, reduction of frauds, reduction of middlemen and accounting expenses, and so much more that platforms based on blockchain can bring to everyone. He believes that the world today is fueled by information, about everyone anywhere: company, bank, or individual. The only logical move is to fully transparent platforms and businesses which will create huge new value and also win the trust to new millions of participants across the world with fair and available systems to everyone. Ivan loves the ability that Augur will give to anyone anywhere to create the market in which anybody can participate. Outside of Augur, he enjoys the intoxicating tastes of wine; he created a very special red wine on an island in Adriatic Sea, Croatia, and loves to share it with his friends. He also loves hiking, fishing, cooking...especially fish he caught himself!