What Has To Happen For Dolphins Playoff Chances

1. I was surprised when breaking down the playoff scenarios this morning. It's bad, but not as bad for the Dolphins as I would have thought. Strangely, they can look pretty good a week from now.

First, the tie-breaker scenarios are, in order:

A. Head-to-head games.

B. Record in the conference.

Right now, the rankings for the two wild-card spots are: Ravens and Broncos at 8-6; Jaguars at 7-7 (win the tiebreaker against Dolphins with a better conference record.); Then there's the Dolphins (who have a better conference record than Pittsburgh and Tennessee).

So how can next week put them in position for a berth on the final weekend besides the Dolphins beating Houston?

1. Denver loses at Philadelphia. That's probable. That puts the Broncos to 8-7 and in the mix with everyone heading into the last game.

2. New England wins at home against Jacksonville. Again, it's probable. That pushes the Jaguars to 7-8. (If Jacksonville wins, the news isn't awful. New England would slip to 9-6 and need to win the final game at Houston to win the AFC East over the Dolphins.)

3. Ravens at Steelers. Take your pick. Good news comes of either loss. Ravens lose and they go to 8-7. Steelers lose, they pretty much drop out of playoff picture heading into the finale against the Dolphins.

In some ways, this news makes Sunday's loss all the worse for the Dolphins. They'd be 8-7 and in a good spot. As it is, they need help to make it. But when you look at the scenarios, it's not as bleak as I thought it would be.

2. Jeff Fisher's explanation as to why he didn't use his time-outs at the end of the game leads to one conclusion: He doesn't trust his defense at all.

The scenario: With 57 seconds left, with the Dolphins at their 2, Tennessee had the Dolphins penned in and could have got the ball back near midfield for a potentiaol field-goal kick. Instead, Fisher said after the Dolphins ran for 4 yards on the first play, he didn't want to call time-out and have the Dolphins, "take a shot down the field."

Translation: He didn't trust his pass defense.

Conclusion: Fisher made the kind of coaching blunder that, when the Dolphins won the overtime coin flip, could easily have cost him the game.

3. Rex Ryan is just weird, saying the Jets have no chance for the playoffs. OK, it's a long trip for them to make it. But what's the point in saying that?