What I say unto you I say unto all, watch. Mark 13:37

April 07, 2011

Israel’s next war

In all likelihood, the Palestinians are going to unilaterally
declare statehood in Judea and Samaria within the coming year. This is not a
ploy or a desperate attempt on their part but rather a clear, rational decision.
By correctly gauging the stark contrast between the massive international
support for their cause as opposed to the steadily increasing de-legitimization
of Israel the “apartheid state,” the Palestinians have wisely decided to bypass
direct negotiations since there is no point in paying for something when you can
get if for free.

Thus, with country after country pledging its support, the
Palestinians are going to take their case to the United Nations.

There, the Palestinians have nothing to lose for even if the
Security Council rejects their bid for statehood, it will most likely be
approved by the General Assembly. Although this is less significant than an
endorsement by the Security Council, an approval by the General Assembly does
nonetheless have some teeth. Most notably, as many commentators pointed out,
there is something known as UNGA Resolution 377 that allows the General Assembly
to call for sanctions or even military force against a country that fails to
implement its recommendations.

If the “civilized world” helps bring the Palestinian plan to
fruition then a very likely result of such actions will be the outbreak of war.
Thus, in a world turned upside down it will be the UN, a body formed to help
foster peace throughout the world, which will be directly responsible for
bringing the next great Arab-Israeli war to the Middle East.

Notably, more than 60 years ago the Palestinians rejected a
similar state that had been allotted to them by the UN. A few months later when
Israel had the “chutzpa” to declare a state, rather than reject one, in the
portion they were granted by the UN, several Arab countries attacked the new
Jewish state. That was the first war of independence, a result of Arab refusal
to receive anything less than 100%.

In the following years, nothing has fundamentally changed in
this respect, the only difference being that the Arabs have finally learned how
to achieve their goal. Thus they’re ready to accept what they formally rejected
as a means for eventually getting it all.

Tsunami is coming

This brings us to today and the quickly approaching second
war of independence. Unlike 60 years ago, this time around nearly the entire
international community will be aligned with the Palestinians against Israel,
making Israel the sole villain.

The war will not break out immediately, but rather, it will
slowly escalate. First there will be calls for sanctions against Israel for
failing to immediately remove its military and citizens from the new Arab state
in Judea and Samaria. Then there will be the predictable eruption of terrorist
attacks in Judea and Samaria, making life hell for the Jews living there. The
attacks will then spill over into the rest of Israel, bringing back memories of
the horror of a decade ago. Next up will be rocket attacks from Hamas in the
south and Hezbollah in the north. Thanks to a porous border with Egypt as well
as other regional changes, Iran will have no problem constantly rearming its
proxies.

As the attacks intensify, Israel will be routinely chastised
for retaliating and not showing proper restraint, as such Arab attacks will be
viewed as somewhat understandable in light of continued Israeli noncompliance.
Moreover, Israeli reprisals will probably draw some neighboring countries into
the fray as they all begin to sense Israel’s imminent downfall.

If Israel is still obstinate following the sanctions and Arab
attacks, then the UN may call for military intervention in order to enforce the
will of the international community. Consequently, they will do to Israel what
they will never do to Iran. After all, Israel’s continued presence in Judea and
Samaria - and not Arab violence, terrorism, hatred, anti-Semitism and
intransigence – will be considered, like it is today, as being the main reason
that peace and harmony is lacking in the region.

Following the isolating effect of sanctions and
de-legitimization, together with incessant terrorist attacks and missile
showers, the threat of military intervention will probably do the trick. Having
been cowered by the cumulative effect of all the actions, Israel will be
sufficiently pliable to give in on everything – the removal of all Jewish
presence from Judea and Samaria, the acceptance of the return of Palestinian
refugees to Israel, the division and internalization of Jerusalem. Thus, the
Palestinian War of Independence, the first stage in the total elimination of the
State of Israel, will come to a conclusion.

Is this scenario an exaggeration? Perhaps, although one
should keep in mind that before the Gaza Disengagement there were those who
warned that the Israeli pullout from Gaza would result in missiles landing in
nearby Ashkelon. As expected, such voices were ridiculed and ultimately ignored.
History of course showed that these “right-wing hawks” erred. They were far too
conservative with their predictions as missiles not only exploded in nearby
Ashkelon but even reached Beersheba, nearly 50 kilometers to the east.