]]>http://marufish.com/2018/08/12/talian-24-jam-angkatan-pertahanan-awam-malaysia/feed/04116El Nino Watched! 60% of El Nino development during fallhttp://marufish.com/2018/08/12/el-nino-watched-60-of-el-nino-development-during-fall/
http://marufish.com/2018/08/12/el-nino-watched-60-of-el-nino-development-during-fall/#respondSun, 12 Aug 2018 07:24:42 +0000http://marufish.com/?p=4113A few of the international weather agency has released the “El Nino” prediction during coming fall and winter.

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing; that is, neither El Niño nor La Niña. Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest a continuation of the neutral conditions into the third quarter of 2018. Many models further indicate this period to be marked by a gradual warming of the tropical Pacific, eventually reaching a possible weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. However, such long-lead ENSO forecasts have substantial uncertainty, mainly related to the fact that forecasts going through the March-June period have lower confidence than those made in the second half of the year. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming weeks, and El Niño likely to develop in spring. Therefore, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlookremains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.

Oceanic ENSO indicators remain neutral. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remains warmer than average. Likewise, the water below the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also cooled recently, but remains warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), remain neutral.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate warming of the tropical Pacific is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Five of eight models indicate El Niño levels will be reached in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.

During El Niño, winter-spring rainfall in eastern Australian is typically below average while daytime temperatures are typically warmer than average in the south.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Three of six international climate models indicate a positive IOD event may develop, with a fourth model close to meeting thresholds. A positive IOD event typically reduces winter–spring rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies.

]]>http://marufish.com/2018/08/12/el-nino-watched-60-of-el-nino-development-during-fall/feed/04113Kai Tak Lost it’s power but Typhoon Tembin going to hit East Malaysia on Saturdayhttp://marufish.com/2017/12/22/kai-tak-lost-its-power-but-typhoon-tembin-going-to-hit-east-malaysia-tomorrow/
Fri, 22 Dec 2017 16:40:29 +0000http://marufish.com/2017/12/22/kai-tak-lost-its-power-but-typhoon-tembin-going-to-hit-east-malaysia-tomorrow/According to MetMalaysia, tropical storm Kai Tak getting weak and disappear in the South China Sea. However, dangerous Typhoon Tembin going to pass through East Malaysia on Saturday. For details, kindly check the Facebook Fanpage of MetMalaysia or their website.

]]>4110Tropical Storm Kai Tak Infographic from MetMalaysiahttp://marufish.com/2017/12/21/tropical-storm-kai-tak-infographic-from-metmalaysia/
Thu, 21 Dec 2017 15:46:17 +0000http://marufish.com/?p=4103MetMalaysia releases an infographic about the Tropical Storm Kai Tak. They will update the latest information about it every three hours.

At the same time, MetMalaysia update on the latest development of Typhoon Kai Tak which is expected to land on Peninsular Malaysia on 22 December. The intensity is expected to be getting weak when it reaches Peninsular Malaysia.

]]>4097Hong Kong Observatory: Tropical Cyclone Kai Takhttp://marufish.com/2017/12/18/hong-kong-observatory-tropical-cyclone-kai-tak/
Mon, 18 Dec 2017 16:23:59 +0000http://marufish.com/?p=4093Tropical cyclone Kai Tak had caused serious damage to Philippines and Sabah recently. According to the trajectory projection from Hong Kong Observatory, it is moing towards the Peninsular Malaysia, and will be reaching our shore on 23 December. Although its strength already reduced after passing the Philippines, still it can cause serious damage when it reaches Peninsular Malaysia.

MetMalaysia has announced the Red and Yellow Weather Alert for the South China Sea and Borneo region. Public is advised to follow up closely the latest announcement and precaution from the bad weather conditions.

Strong Northeasterly winds over 60 kmph with waves more than 4.5 metres (15 feet) are expected to occur over the waters off east Condore, Reef North, Layang-Layang, Palawan, Labuan, north Reef South and north east Bunguran until Thursday, 21st December 2017.

This condition of strong winds and rough seas are dangerous to all coastal and shipping activities including workers on oil platform.

II) WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (SECOND CATEGORY)

Strong Northeasterly winds of 50-60 kmph with waves up to 4.5 metres (15 feet) are expected to occur over the waters off south east Samui, west Condore, Tioman, Bunguran and south Reef South until Thursday, 21st December 2017.

This condition of strong winds and rough seas are dangerous to all shipping and coastal activities including fishing and ferry services.

III) WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (FIRST CATEGORY)

Strong Northeasterly winds of 40-50 kmph with waves up to 3.5 metres (11 feet) are expected to occur over the waters off center Samui until Thursday, 21st December 2017.

This condition of strong winds and rough seas are dangerous to small crafts, recreational sea activities and water sports.

IV) WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM WARNING – UPDATED

Thunderstorms over the waters off Reef South, Reef North, Labuan and Palawan are expected to continue until late evening, Monday, 18th December 2017.

This condition may cause strong winds up to 50 kmph and rough seas with wave height up to 3.5 metres (11 feet) and dangerous to small boats.

SECTION B: FOR MALAYSIAN WATERS

I) WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (THIRD CATEGORY)

Strong Northeasterly winds over 60 kmph with waves more than 4.5 metres (15 feet) are expected to occur over the waters off Labuan FT and Sabah (Interior, West Coast & Kudat) until Thursday, 21st December 2017.

II) WARNING ON STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS (SECOND CATEGORY)

Strong Northeasterly winds of 50-60 kmph with waves up to 4.5 metres (15 feet) are expected to occur over the waters off Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, East Johore and Sarawak until Thursday, 21st December 2017.

This condition of strong winds and rough seas are dangerous to all shipping and coastal activities including fishing and ferry services.

In addition, the coastal areas of Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang & East Johore are vulnerable to sea level rise which is expected to occur until Thursday, 21st December 2017.

III) WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM WARNING

Thunderstorms over the waters off Sarawak, Sabah (Interior, East Coast & Kudat) and Labuan FT are expected to continue until late evening, Monday, 18th December 2017.

This condition may cause strong winds up to 50 kmph and rough seas with wave height up to 3.5 metres (11 feet) and dangerous to small boats.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have recently cooled to weak La Niña levels. Similarly, most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with the early stages of a La Niña event. Climate models indicate that weak La Niña conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018. A return to ENSO-neutral conditions before early 2018 is less likely, while the emergence of El Niño before the second quarter of 2018 appears very remote. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.

Since October, sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific have shifted from neutral to weak La Niña levels, with temperatures of 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius below average in the east-central part of the basin. Atmospheric indicators also show La Niña patterns, including enhanced precipitation over the far western Pacific and an area of reduced rainfall near the International Date Line. Additionally, enhanced trade winds are observed in the western tropical Pacific and sea level pressures are higher than normal in the eastern Pacific and lower than normal in the west – both indicative of La Niña conditions.

In central to eastern Pacific, waters at depth have remained moderately cooler than average since October and extend several hundred meters below the surface. These waters, which often provide an indication of the coming conditions at the surface, do not suggest any warming of the cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures during December and into January.

Most models surveyed predict that sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean may experience some additional cooling over the next two months, but will remain in the weak La Niña range (0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius below average). A small number of models predict cooling to more than 1.0 degrees Celsius below average. Based on these predictions and expert assessment, the chance of La Niña continuing into the first quarter of 2018 is 70-80%. There is virtually no chance of El Niño developing before the second quarter of 2018.

In summary:

Weak La Niña conditions have recently developed in both the sea surface temperatures and the associated key atmospheric patterns;

La Niña conditions are 70-80% likely to continue into the first quarter of 2018.

]]>4086Weather Red Alert! East Coast Peninsular Malaysiahttp://marufish.com/2017/11/28/weather-red-alert-east-coast-peninsular-malaysia/
Tue, 28 Nov 2017 13:50:10 +0000http://marufish.com/?p=4077MetMalaysia announced Red Weather Alert for the State of Kelantan and Terengganu today afternoon. The bad weather is expected to be continued until 30 November 2017. Following is the official annoucement.

NADMA News

PETALING JAYA: Penang’s move to set up an independent weather alert system is feasible, but has serious legal implications, says a climate expert.

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said that meteo­rological services in the region, such as those in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand, track weather systems that move across the boundaries of countries.

“There is an overlap in the data collected, so it is feasible if Penang wants to source for weather alerts from the meteorological services in other countries.

“However, this must be done by well-trained experts. More importantly, they must realise that they will assume a legal responsibility if they were to issue their own alerts,” he said.

On Tuesday, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng was quoted as saying that the state would conduct a study on how data from meteorological services in the region could be compiled and used for alerts.

Lim, who was addressing the state assembly during his winding-up address, reportedly expressed frustration over what he claimed was a “last-minute” red alert of heavy rain issued by the Malaysian Meteorological Depart­ment (MetMalaysia).

Elaborating on the legal responsibility involved, Prof Azizan gave an example: “Let’s say Penang issues an advisory saying it won’t rain while MetMalaysia says it will rain heavily. It then turns out that rain falls very heavily, causing floods. Who will be responsible?”

As a government agency under the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry, MetMalaysia is the authorised body to issue alerts and is answerable to Parliament, said Prof Azizan.

He said other agencies involved with weather emergencies, including the National Security Council and the National Disaster Manage­ment Agency, also operated under rules and regulations.

“When an agency forecasts that the water levels at a river will soon rise above danger levels, there is legal basis to instruct residents to move to safety.

“The legal basis that a Penang government alert would have is something that has to be studied,” said Prof Azizan.

He said it was understandable if the Penang government was unhappy over the state of affairs, but any move by Penang to collect its own weather data should complement MetMalaysia’s efforts.

“My suggestion is to have their own team to cooperate with MetMalaysia and all other agencies involved.”

Dr Fredolin Tangang, a professor of Climatology and Physical Oceanography at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, said weather forecasting was not a simple matter and should be left to trained professionals.

“We already have MetMalaysia, and if people don’t understand the process of forecasting, perhaps a working visit to MetMalaysia will be helpful to understand what’s being done and what are the constraints involved.

“Just assigning blame is not the way to go,” he said.

A MetMalaysia official declined to comment when contacted.

The department had earlier denied allegations that it was late in issuing a warning on the bad weather in Penang.

Its director-general Alui Bahari said a warning was issued as early as Nov 1 – three days before the floods – and forwarded to the relevant state authorities.