Irvine’s population is projected to soar by almost 70 percent in the next 20 years as demand for housing and the creation of the Great Park at the old El Toro Marine base lead to a surge in residential development.

Irvine now counts 180,803 people within the city limit; that figure is projected to go to 305,000 by 2025.

Where will they live?

Mostly in areas around the old air base, soon to become the Great Park, a mix of wilderness areas, athletic fields, museums, schools, farms, a golf course, a cemetery, shops and houses that will be at least two decades in development.

Moreover, some decisions made in coming years could push the city’s population projection even higher.

Other areas of Irvine may be rezoned for residential development. For example, the Irvine Co. is building apartments in the Irvine Spectrum and is considering more housing there than previously envisioned.

Another potential housing zone beckons on the west side of the San Diego (I-405) Freeway where the Verizon Wireless Amphitheater now operates on Irvine Co. land. An amphitheater is under consideration as part of the Great Park.

Creation of new housing is raising the expected concerns about crowding and traffic, but the county’s insatiable desire for living quarters is muting the debate.

Irvine’s general plan includes 114,856 existing or approved residential units, which, multiplied by an average of 2.66 people per household, equals the 305,000 estimated population for the city’s buildout, says Brian Fisk, Irvine’s manager of planning services.

New housing might actually help reduce traffic or at least dampen increases – if the new Irvine residents work in the city. Recent Census Bureau figures show that Irvine’s daytime population jumps 74 percent as people come to work in the city’s profusion of technology, scientific and other businesses. Thousands commute from surrounding cities and counties, giving Irvine the largest daytime population gain in the country for a city its size.

Irvine’s most-debated residential expansion likely will be in the Irvine Business Complex, 2,670 acres near John Wayne Airport that is the city’s industrial and commercial core. Already, 30 residential projects are either in development, approved or proposed. Many of the projects form a swath of high-rise condo towers along Jamboree Road near the airport.

Tim Strader, vice president of Irvine-based Starpointe Ventures, a consulting firm for many Irvine Business Complex developers, predicts that the approved residential projects will boost residential demand even higher in the area, which now is envisioned as a mixed-use village somewhat similar to central Santa Barbara, parts of Pasadena and sections of New York City.

But some business owners are troubled by the coming invasion of living quarters, fearing restrictions on noise, lighting and truck traffic.

And some Irvine council members are apprehensive of the projected growth in one of America’s premier planned cities. Council member Christina Shea says she never wanted the population to go over 220,000.

“You just can’t keep building and building and building and not expect gridlock on the roads,” she says.

Fellow council member Sukhee Kang also is wary of congestion but acknowledges that growth is seductive.

“In a way, growth is a very positive reaction to the community,” he says.

Plans for how more residential development will fit into the Irvine Business Complex are expected to go before the City Council early this year.

Although the area appears likely to emerge as a bold social experiment – melding businesses and homes and coordinating parking and parks – the real key to Irvine’s growth will be the Great Park. When El Toro was an active air base, residential development around it was restricted. With the departure of the military and the defeat of a proposal for a commercial airport, land surrounding the airport became more desirable and available as land-use restrictions were lifted.

Lennar Corp. is building the developed portions of the park, including a proposed 3,625 residential units. Just north of the Great Park is the so-called Northern Sphere, originally zoned for 12,350 residential units. However, the Irvine Co. now wants to rezone parts of the Northern Sphere from medical and office use to residential, boosting the planned dwelling units to 17,000.

Plans for the Irvine Business Complex, for example, envision live-work units: shops on the ground floor and living quarters above. But how people will live and work two decades from now and what the demand for transportation and housing will be – those and other variables are unclear.

Everyone agrees that as the county grows, some tough choices lie ahead to solve the county’s growing transportation needs. For example, although plans have been approved to widen the San Diego (405) Freeway between Seal Beach and Costa Mesa, funding still must be secured.

“Planning now becomes very important as we accommodate higher-density growth,” says Anil Puri, dean of the college of business and economics at Cal State Fullerton.

“Traffic is a major issue, (and) we absolutely need to think about the county in a different way.”

Join the Conversation

We invite you to use our commenting platform to engage in insightful conversations about issues in our community. Although we do not pre-screen comments, we reserve the right at all times to remove any information or materials that are unlawful, threatening, abusive, libelous, defamatory, obscene, vulgar, pornographic, profane, indecent or otherwise objectionable to us, and to disclose any information necessary to satisfy the law, regulation, or government request. We might permanently block any user who abuses these conditions.

If you see comments that you find offensive, please use the “Flag as Inappropriate” feature by hovering over the right side of the post, and pulling down on the arrow that appears. Or, contact our editors by emailing moderator@scng.com.