Growth in Services Outsourcing to India: Propellant or Drain on the U.S. Economy?

Transcription

1 No A Office of Economics Working Paper U.S. International Trade Commission Growth in Services Outsourcing to India: Propellant or Drain on the U.S. Economy? William Greene* U.S. International Trade Commission January 2006 *The author is with the Office of Economics of the U.S. International Trade Commission. Office of Economics working papers are the result of the ongoing professional research of USITC staff and are solely meant to represent the opinions and professional research of individual authors. These papers are not meant to represent in any way the views of the U.S. International Trade Commission or any of its individual Commissioners. Working papers are circulated to promote the active exchange of ideas between USITC Staff and recognized experts outside the USITC, and to promote professional development of Office staff by encouraging outside professional critique of staff research. Address correspondence to: Office of Economics U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC USA

2 No A OFFICE OF ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION Growth in Services Outsourcing to India: Propellant or Drain on the U.S. Economy? William Greene U.S. International Trade Commission January 2006 The authors is with the Office of Economics of the U.S. International Trade Commission. Office of Economics working papers are the result of the ongoing professional research of USITC Staff and are solely meant to represent the opinions and professional research of individual authors. These papers are not meant to represent in any way the views of the U.S. International Trade Commission or any of its individual Commissioners. Working papers are circulated to promote the active exchange of ideas between USITC Staff and recognized experts outside the USITC, and to promote professional development of Office staff by encouraging outside professional critique of staff research. Address correspondence to: Office of Economics U.S. International Trade Commission Washington, DC USA

5 Introduction In recent years, one focus of globalization - the transfer of certain manufacturing processes overseas - has expanded to include the offshore outsourcing of many business process services. The offshore outsourcing of business process services to other countries has generated much debate in the United States and presents broad implications for American consumers and equity share holders, 1 corporations, and the U.S. workforce. Critics of offshore outsourcing contend that it will destroy the American middle class and seriously undermine America s economic future. Opponents of business process outsourcing (BPO) fear that millions of U.S. workers will become jobless from competition in the services sector and accuse U.S. corporations of exporting high paying white-collar service jobs overseas at the expense of the American worker. Others fear that outsourcing will exert downward pressure on U.S. wages and that the income distribution gap will broaden as more middle-class jobs go offshore. On the other hand, proponents of outsourcing and globalization believe that it will benefit the U.S. economy by lowering the prices of certain services, increasing profit margins, expanding exports, raising dividends to shareholders, providing greater job security and higher wages for remaining workers, and generally resulting in economic efficiency. Advocates contend that the benefits to the U.S. economy derived from offshore outsourcing will more than offset any pain and suffering caused by the dislocation of U.S. workers. Likewise, proponents predict that the economic activity associated with offshore outsourcing will create hundreds of thousands of new jobs in the U.S. economy and that U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) and U.S. exports will be billions of dollars higher than in the absence of the offshoring. 2 Outsourcing critics and proponents engaged in passionate debate throughout 2004, even though 3 little empirical evidence exists to support many claims made by either side. According to Dan Davison, a Meta Group analyst, the issue [was] going to be exaggerated and manipulated by both sides in the political debate. There are distinct differences of opinion in what corporations should do to take 1 The outsourcing of business process services first became a hot- button issue during the 2004 U.S. Presidential campaign. Throughout the campaign, newspapers and television reports continuously presented stories tying the economic recession and the so-called U.S. jobless recovery to the loss of high-paying white-collar information technology (IT) and service sector jobs to developing countries. These stories captured the attention of many Americans who had generally believed that their white-collar middle class occupations were immune to international competition. Many subsequently expressed the fear that the U.S. economy was being hollowed out by international competition, and that their jobs were no longer safe from being sent offshore. In The New Wave of Outsourcing, Bardhan and Kroll (2003) state that many Americans fear that we are witnessing what maybe the largest out-migration of non-manufacturing jobs in the history of the U.S. economy. However, others contend that the impact of offshoring of services on the U.S. labor market is relatively minor. Outsourcing advocates acknowledge that some low-skilled workers will be temporarily dislocated due to outsourcing, but maintain that the U.S. economy will gain in the long run. U.S. consulting firm Gartner Research maintains that less than 5 percent of all U.S. IT and service related IT positions have been sent offshore. It also estimated that U.S. jobs lost to offshore outsourcing in 2002 represented less than 3 percent of the total U.S. labor force. 2 Proponents assert that U.S. exports would be billions of dollars higher because outsourcing would enable U.S. companies to lower their prices in foreign markets and take advantage of growing incomes in those nations. 3 Literature related to the offshoring of business process services is growing and includes: Jensen and Ketzer (2005); Bhagwati, Panagariya, and Srinivasan (2004); Bardhan and Kroll (2003); Arora, Ashish, and Gambardella (2004); Amiti and Wei (2004); Brainard and Litan (2004); Kirkegarrd (2004); Schultze (2004); Bronfenbrenner and Luce (2004); Dossain and Kenney (2003, 2004); Mann (2003); and Samuelson (2004). 1

6 4 responsibility, and what kind of public policy should be implemented. The degree to which offshore outsourcing has either positively or negatively affects the U.S. 5 economy is still being debated. Some of the negative aspects of outsourcing are clearly visible with the increasing transfer of U.S. information technology (IT) and services offshore, whereas the positive benefits are more difficult to demonstrate. Today, U.S. companies account for approximately 70 percent of the global offshoring market. The destination for much of U.S. business service outsourcing is India. U.S. firms now account 6 for about 80 percent of India s BPO market. The driving force behind much of this U.S. outsourcing trend to India is the lower labor costs provided by the Indian BPO sector. India s comparative advantage lies in its highly developed and successful IT sector, its reputation for low-cost but high-quality work. India can provide a large pool of low-wage English speaking IT knowledge workers who are highly educated. Additionally, India can count on growing Internet and telecommunications capabilities and favorable time zone differential. 7 This paper presents an overview of India s participation in the provision of business process outsourcing services to U.S. companies. The paper will describe the dynamism behind the Indian BPO sector and will discuss key related issues, including the factors that influence U.S. corporate decisions to outsource - competitiveness, job growth and productivity. Business process outsourcing Outsourcing is a generic term used when companies contract non-critical, but essential, business processes and services to third-party vendors, either domestically or offshore. Over the past several decades the world s economies have become increasingly interdependent, and many CEOs have come under increasing pressure to raise productivity and profitability while lowering operational costs. Outsourcing has emerged as a popular competitive strategy for large and small companies that believe they must perform their business processes offshore in order to survive in the domestic and international marketplace. Criteria for successful offshoring of business process services include: 4 Democrats hopefuls, lawmakers denounce outsourcing, The Indian Express, Feb. 7, 2004, found at retrieved Feb. 15, Despite the attention, relatively little is known about how many jobs may be at risk from relocation or how much job loss is associated with these business decisions (Kletzer 2005). Nevertheless, a number of papers and studies have emerged during the last few years related to the offshoring of business process services. The most frequently cited projections estimate that between 300,000 and 3.3 million U.S. services jobs will go offshore by Bardhan and Kroll (2003) estimate that 14 million workers are vulnerable to job loss from services outsourcing. Whereas, Mann (2003) stated that these predictions failed to consider that the U.S. economy will generate stronger demand for IT proficient workers due to offshoring and the infusion of IT in new sectors of the economy. She also contends that these predictions also fail to factor in such issues as the business cycle, the overvaluation of the U.S. dollar, and the dot.com bust when compiling projections. Likewise, Amiti and Wei (2004) asserted that they did not find evidence to support the prevailing level of anxiety in the United States over massive job losses caused by offshoring. 6 See page 18 for a discussion of competing international business process outsourcing services (BPO) destinations. 7 Depending on daylight savings time, India is either 9.5 or 10.5 hours ahead of the U.S. (Eastern standard time) that could enable U.S. companies to operate on a 24/7 basis. For the typical Indian call center, manpower typically accounts for 55 to 60 percent of total costs. In contrast to the United States, where many call center workers are high school graduates, India s call center workforce consists primarily of college graduates with excellent linguistic skills. This provides an overall improvement in the quality of services. 2

7 no face-to-face customer servicing requirements; high information content that can be standardized and digitized and performed at a distance; work processing that can be transmitted via telephone or Internet; high wage differentials between countries; job processes that can be separated and documented step-by-step; low set-up costs; low social networking requirement and the availability of appropriate skills. Bhagwati, Panagariya, and Srinivasan define offshore outsourcing as the arms-length or longdistance purchase of services abroad, principally, but not necessarily, via electronic mediums such as the 8 telephone, fax, and Internet. The management consulting firm, Gartner, defines business process services as the delegation of one or more IT intensive business processes to an external service provider (third party), that in turn, owns, administers and manages the selected process(es), based upon defined and measurable performance metrics to improve overall business performance. Offshore business process services function by delegating one or more business processes such as call centers, computer help-desks, market research services, and accounting services to an external 9 service provider from a country that is geographically remote from the clients enterprise. For purposes of this paper, the term business process outsourcing will be used interchangeably with offshoring, offshore outsourcing, and information technology enabled service-business process outsourcing (ITES- BPO). Benefits and potential liabilities associated with offshoring business process services offshore are presented in Box 1. Box 1: Benefits and potential liabilities associated with outsourcing Benefits Labor arbitrage (profit from labor wage differential). Offshore workers cost generally one-third to one-fifth that of U.S. workers). Opportunity to build a global production chain. Labor productivity and economies of scale, efficiencies, flexibility, and streamline operations. Ability to focus on core-competencies to create stronger companies. Greater flexibility to respond to unexpected changes in the business cycle or in the market. Access to latest technologies, business practices, and other skills not available within the company. Lower operations costs. Ability to provide around the clock services to customers. Ability to convert fixed costs to variable costs. Overall cost savings can range between 20 to 60 percent. Savings from reduced costs can be translated into lower prices for consumers. Potential liabilities Lack of intellectual property - weaker data security in many developing countries (no data protection laws to ensure data security), sharing sensitive data and proprietary technology. Loss of institutional knowledge. rd Weakness in internal controls of 3 party players. Hidden costs: staff training, redeployment costs, lost productivity during transition, temporary staff costs, cost of selecting a vendor, cost of layoffs, cultural costs, cost of managing an offshore contract. Loss of management control. Dependency on political stability in the host country. Loss of production and customer knowledge base. Vendor underperformance. Loss of flexibility. Loss of bargaining power. Quality-delivery issues. Sources: Nasscom, IT PRO, C/NET News, The Times of India, Hindustan Times. 8 Jagdish Bhagwati, Arvind Panagariya, and T.N. Srinivasan, The Muddles over Outsourcing, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 4, Fall 2004, pp Gartner Says Offshore BPO Industry to Grow 65 percent in 2004, Gartner, Media Relations, found at retrieved May 5,

8 The initial wave of IT and business process outsourcing began in the late 1990s in response to a 10 tight U.S. labor market caused by the dot.com boom and by the year 2000 (Y2K) crisis. This created an upsurge in demand for computer coders, testers, and software programmers to analyze and correct legacy software that was not available in the United States. India s emergence as a technology powerhouse proved to be the frontrunner for U.S. companies to meet this challenge. The Y2K crisis also provided many Indian companies with their first outsourcing contracts as U.S. corporations began to shift their IT enabled business services abroad. Today, U.S. corporations are sending many of their routine labor-intensive service tasks to developing countries that offer significant cost savings advantages with little or no apparent drop off in quality. Labor cost differentials have allowed U.S. corporations to save between 30 and 70 percent on 11 labor costs. According to Carol Bartz, Chief Executive and Chairman of software firm Autodesk, when you get great talent at 20 percent of the cost, it isn t about waving the American flag. It s about doing 12 what s right to have a good company. These savings can be passed on in the form of lower prices to consumers and higher dividends to shareholders. Offshoring business process services also allows American companies to focus on their core profit making activities (competencies) while improving quality and productivity and expanding into new lines of business or activities. By shedding non-core business process activities, U.S. companies can focus on those parts of their production chain that are profitable and that provide a competitive advantage. Wider benefits offered by offshoring business process services include improving efficiencies, economies of scale, elimination of company-specific non-revenue generating activities, provide greater business flexibility, and reduce indirect costs. In many instances, offshoring allows a company to either eliminate certain internal fixed costs or transform them into external variable costs to 13 be born by the offshore vendor at a fixed price. Many U.S. corporations view offshoring of business process services as a business necessity. Others have followed suit only after seeing competitors going offshore to search for inexpensive talent and lower costs. Bruce Mehlman, executive director of the Computer Systems Policy Project (CSPP) said that, because U.S. companies are operating globally, they must hire qualified workers around the world to meet customer demands and expand their capacities - a business model that makes sense, given 14 that increasing corporate revenues come from abroad. Likewise, according to Vail Dutto, CEO of InTelegy of San Ramon, CA, it s just really expensive to do business here in the U.S., particularly from 15 a customer support standpoint. 10 Saurabh Jawa, Balancing cost and quality imperatives, The Financial Times, Dec. 25, 2004, found at retrieved May 5, Thomas L. Friedman, The Great Indian Dream, The New York Times, March 11, 2004, pg. A29. Carrie Kirby, John Shinal, Offshoring s giant target: The Bay Area Silicon Valley could face export of 1 in 6 jobs - - worst in nation, SF Gate, March 7, 2004, found at retrieved June 3, According to former Federal Reserve Bank Governor Ben Bernanke, outsourcing has proved profitable primarily for clearly defined jobs involving routine activities and most-high-value service jobs require workers to have physical proximity to each other. Trade and Jobs, Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, March 30, CSPP is an umbrella organization made up of prominent U.S. IT companies such as IBM, Hewlett- Packard, Intel, Dell, EMC, Motorola, NCR, and Unisys. Ashu Kumar, US IT Cos join fight against BPO backlash, ExpressIndia, May 19, 2005, found at retrieved May 18, The Case For, and Against, Shifting Back-office Operations Overseas, Knowledge Wharton, found at retrieved Feb. 2,

9 The first wave of business process services outsourced by U.S. firms consisted principally of entry-level, low paying jobs that included business processes that could be electronically transmitted. Although many of these jobs lacked financial status in the United States, they were considered highpaying, high-status jobs in developing countries. These tasks included voice and processing, customer and financial services, market research, pay roll, computer help desks, credit card collections, 16 account reconciliation, and transcription. Over the past few years, however, business process outsourcing has grown to include a variety of higher value-added services such as financial and accounting, engineering, and research and development services. Link to telephony technology development: The popularity of offshoring business process services accelerated over the last few decades by falling international telecommunications costs, new fiberoptic links between the United States and the developing world, the computerization and digitization of many business services, standardized interactive software packages, and reliable and affordable 17 international bandwidth connections. These new developments effectively leveled the playing field, enabling foreign workers to compete directly and effectively with U.S. workers for a wider assortment of occupations. The emergence of new telecommunications technologies also removed the need for physical proximity at the point of sale, allowing U.S. corporations to send large amounts of data nearly anyplace in the world instantaneously. Consequently, hundreds of U.S. corporations moved portions of their noncore customer services and other financial and administrative functions, to countries like India, China, and the Philippines to take advantage of substantial labor cost differentials. Since the mid 1990s, India has progressively liberalized its telecommunications services and equipment manufacturing sectors and opened them to private sector participation. India s National Telecom Policy 1994 was the first significant government-sponsored effort to reform the Indian telecommunications sector by reducing barriers to entry, encouraging competition, accelerating 18 modernization, and providing low-cost telephony to the largest number of Indians at affordable prices. A second Indian National Telecom Policy in 1999 established more ambitious universal coverage targets and presented service providers with greater choices of technologies and new tele-density goals, which allowed telecommunication service providers to shift from a high cost fixed license fee regime to a lower 19 cost revenue sharing scheme. It also legalized Internet telephony, brought on an explosion in high-speed 16 Other jobs possibly subject to offshoring include: inbound and outbound call centers, medical records maintenance, computer programming, telemarketing, reservations, and data processing. As of 2004, offshoring has grown to include database design, software programming; credit card call collections; mortgage and insurance claims processing and services; e-commerce support; design and billing support; administering payroll, documents management, geographical information systems services for insurance companies, computer help desks; stock market research for financial firms; tax and compliance management, training and personnel, paralegal services; legal online database research; and data analysis for consulting firms Mr. Mankiw is right, The Washington Post, Feb. 13, 2004, P. A26. For further back ground see: William Greene, The Liberalization of India s Telecommunications Sector: Implications for Trade and Investment, USITC, Office of Economics Working Paper, No B, Sept According to Nasscom, government liberalizations include: permission to use common infrastructure; domestic call centers permitted to use integrated services digital network (ISDN) for back-up of leased lines for better resilience in the system; stand-alone domestic tele-marketing centers; for making outgoing calls, termination of local PSTN lines on the PABX of the domestic call centers permitted; for the foreign end connectivity in the international call center, use of ATM/MPLS/Frame Relay based managed international networks permitted in addition to the existing provision of connectivity through point to point IPLC format for quantity information to be furnished by companies registered under OSP category for call center businesses. Latest in BPO Regulation, Nasscom, found at retrieved Dec. 28,

10 Internet connections and ended the state monopoly on international calling facilities that brought about a drastic reduction in long-distance telecommunications rates and ushered in a slew of inbound/outbound call centers and data processing centers. Indian IT companies began entering the global market in the late 1990s. U.S. corporations looked to India and its abundance of well-educated English-speaking programmers and coders who were adept with increasingly obsolete programming languages to assist in addressing the Y2K problem. Some of the earliest U.S. services outsourced to India included medical transcription services, payroll accounting, credit card call collections, mortgage and insurance claim processing, and data processing. 20 Outsourcing models: The National Association of Software and Service Companies (Nasscom) of India divided the nation s BPO sector into five basic types: captive arms of global corporations, Indian start-ups, Indian IT service companies, global BPO majors, and broad-based global services companies. 21 N Captive wholly-owned subsidiaries of multinationals: These early entrants were subsidiaries of foreign multinationals. The pure captives were founded to perform basic financial and administrative functions such as telephone banks, medical records keeping, computer programming, call centers, telemarketing, reservations, and data processing for the parent company. The captive partnership model offers companies long-term cost savings and high management control over their operations. Under this model, the risk of disrupting business continuity appears to be low and data security appears to be high. On the negative side, the pay back period for the initial investment in offshore outsourcing can be as long as 4-to-5 years. This is due to high initial set up costs and lead time needed to make the offshoring outsourcing transition. The model typically suits large companies that need to operate on huge scales. U.S. multinationals with captive centers in India include Dell Computers, American Express, General Electric, Delphi Automotive, NetScape, Hewlett Packard, Standard Chartered, Convergys, Citigroup, eserve, and Ernst & Young. Nasscom estimates that during the , the number of Fortune 500 companies offshoring 22 work to India grew from 125 to 285. Multinationals pioneering offshoring to India via captive centers include General Electric, Swissair, Lufthansa, McKinsey & Co., BechTel, Ford, Conseco, Dell Computers, Standard Charter Bank, British Airways, and American Express. General Electric pioneered the offshoring movement in 1997, and its GE Capital International Services (GECIS) is the largest business process outsourcing firm in India, operating 5 centers across the country. GE s wholly-owned 23 captive centers have been the model for other multinationals. GE also operates a joint venture called iprocess, that offers IT enabled business process outsourcing services, and the John F. Welch Technology Center, its first and largest research and development center outside the United States The Outsourcing History of India, Outsource2India, found at retrieved Jan. 12, Indian ITES-BPO Industry-Fact Sheet (Nasscom-McKinsey Report), found at retrieved Dec. 28, Scrambling to Stem India s Onslaught, Business Week, Jan. 26, 2004, found at retrieved Apr. 15, Out of captivity, The Economist, Nov. 11, 2004, found at retrieved Apr. 15, In 2004, GE s back office arm, GE Capital International Services (GECIS), employed approximately 13,000 Indian workers plus 4,000 located in the United States, China, Hungary, and Mexico. Also in 2004, GE divested 60 percent of its stake in GECIS primarily to U.S. private equity funds General Atlantic Partners and Oak 6

11 N Indian start-ups: Within the last 4 years, Indian entrepreneurs have launched their own business process outsourcing operations. These companies, also referred to as third-party providers, offer BPO services to external customers, both domestic and foreign. The first participants were niche players, like Talisman Corp, that offered CRM services. Subsequently, others such as Spectramind, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Hero, and Daksh entered this growing segment. There are approximately 300 third-party providers in India, and the larger startups were typically founded by former BPO workers and are not captive wholly-owned subsidiaries of multinationals. The vast majority of the firms participating in this sector tend to be small with around 50 to 100 seats-workers. Indian owned third-party firms continue to dominate the industry in terms of numbers. Wipro, Infosys and several of others began as subcontractors to U.S. IT firms during the Y2K crisis and have expanded beyond IT maintenance and support. Many of these firms can perform end-to-end services for both foreign and domestic customers, including writing software applications and managing payroll. Although the majority of these companies are small, the Indian BPO industry boasted of having eight to of these large services companies in 2005 that were capable of competing with multinationals. In 2005, WNS became the largest third-party BPO company displacing Wirpo Spectramind, which purchased Spectramind, India s third largest call center in 2002 (table 1). Hill Capital partners for between $380 and $400 million. GE s presence in India continues through its John F. Welch Technology Center. BPO Sector Symbolizes Dynamism and Change, Nasscom NewsLine, Nov. 2004, found at retrieved Dec. 23, At least eight BPO players may be $100-m cos by 2005, The Economic Times, Feb. 17, 2004, found at retrieved Feb. 18,

13 access to India s BPO market. As one example, Sitel Corp set up a joint venture with the Tata Group and Stream set up one with TracMail. Other Indian firms, however, such as Convergys and Sykes established wholly-owned subsidiaries in India. The preferred route for global BPO majors has been to form joint venture partnership. The business press has stated that these joint partnerships combine the best of the captive and the third party models and is the most appropriate for all categories of buyers except the very large ones. 26 N Broad-based global service companies: The broad-based service providers entering the Indian BPO sector include consulting firms such as PwC and Accenture and IT services companies such as EDS and ACS. Many have entered the market to take advantage of existing client relationships and to take advantage of an ability to provide bundled services as well as the high-growth potential this market provides. Outsourcing development phases: India s business process outsourcing industry has progressed through three distinct development phases. 27 First stage: ( ) The Y2K crisis also provided many Indian companies with their first outsourcing contracts because U.S. corporations began to shift their IT enabled business services abroad. General Electric Capital Services was the first multinational to pioneer business process outsourcing in India. GE Capital Services opened its first India-based international call center in 1997 to perform tasks such as money collections, credit-card services, and data management. Other multinationals followed, establishing their own captive wholly-owned offshore facilities. Most of these centers were located in New Delhi, Mumbai or Bangalore. The absence of infrastructure, reliable power and telecommunications services, and restrictive government regulations created significant barriers to growth. Other pioneering multinationals included British Airways (World Network Services), HSBC, Swissair, and American Express. Second phase: The second phase ( ) witnessed the emergence of a number of joint venture, third-party Indian start-ups funded by venture capitalists. Many of these operations were started by former Indian employees of multinational business process outsourcing firms who resigned to launch their own ventures. Mumbai, New Delhi, and Bangalore continued to be the preferred location for BPOs. During the second phase a group of start-ups entered the Indian BPO market that were associated with India s large business houses such as the Hero Group, Reliance, Hiranandani, and Godrej. A significant percentage of these third party startups were small ventures with 50 to 100 workers (seats), and they generally focus[ed] their outsourcing on low-skill, routine activities that compete primarily on the basis of cost. More developed IT outsourcing firms tended to move toward higher value-added products 28 competing to a greater extent on specialized talent. Third phase: (2001 to present) In the current phase, India s business process outsourcing sector continues to grow, mature, and consolidate. Nasscom stated that, growth within the ITES-BPO segment 26 JV best BPO model: report, The Financial Express, found at retrieved March 16, India can rake in $16 bn for outsourcing by 07, The Economic Times, Feb. 11, 2005, found at retrieved March 14, William Chadwick, Global Trends in the Information Technology Outsourcing Services Market, USITC, Industry Trade and Technology Review, Nov

14 is centered around the large players that can offer clients benefits such as scalability, delivery capability, 29 track record, customer referrals, etc. The captive units of multinationals, as a percentage of all BPO units, grew from 42.6 percent of the total to 57.8 percent, and the number of third-party vendors declined 30 from 57.4 percent of the total to 42.2 percent during FY 2001-FY2003. Prominent Indian software services companies such as Infosys, Wipro, and Satyam entered the BPO market during this current phase, which has been marked by significant numbers of acquisitions and 31 mergers. Industry observers reported 574 acquisitions and mergers in 2003 and 353 in 2004 valued at 32 approximately $500 million. With this market maturation process, many smaller BPOs found it difficult to survive. As a result, Gartner, Inc. calculates that 70 percent of the top 15 India-owned BPO call centers 33 will either be purchased, merged, or marginalized by the end of Forrester Research also reported that competing small and medium sized BPO suppliers with complementary skills are likely to merge 34 their operations in order to compete with the larger global firms. In addition to market consolidation, India s BPO market has recently witnessed by a price war. Prices have dropped by 40 percent to 50 percent since 2002 as a result of excess capacity and growing competition. To fill their order books, some Indian business process outsourcing firms have slashed their wages to between $19 and $12 per employee, and many smaller companies are finding it difficult to compete. Some desperate BPOs have lowered their wages even further to the $7 to $8 range, which many consider suicidal pricing, in order to attract business. Companies that offer low-end voice and data services have been coping with the reduced margins for the last year chiefly due to undercutting of costs in the industry. Gross margins have recorded a sharp fall of 60 percent to 40 percent, while billing for the traditional voice-based services have slipped from $16 per hour per seat to $12 per hour per seat. The second-tier players in the industry are facing some pressure on their margins. According to Eric Selvadurai, President, Global Services for WNS Global Services, the smaller operators are vying to increase their share of the market by offering lower prices and compromising on quality. Selvadurai noted that since this is the lowest skill segment (voice-based services) with very low investments in infrastructure and human resources, it has been witnessing an overcrowding of players. Moreover, it is a 29 The Indian ITES-BPO industry - Overview, Nasscom, found at retrieved Feb. 3, National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom). Prominent acquisitions and mergers included: (1) CustomerAsset by ICICI OneSource; (2) Spectramind (India s largest third-party call center) by Wipro; (3) British Airways equity share in WNS (formerly Speedwing World Network Services) by Warburg Pincus; (4) Daksh (one of India s biggest call center firms) by IBM; (5) E- serve International by Citigroup; (7) iserve by U.S. based ECE; (8) PriceWaterhouse Coopers division by IBM (2002); and (9) ProBusiness by ADP. Also, Indian companies also began to purchase U.S.-based BPO companies such as (1) NervWire (Massachusetts-based IT consultancy) by Wipro; (2) Aegis Communications Group by Essar Group partnered with Deutsche Bank; (3) CorPay Solutions by Datamatics Technologies; (4) and a significant share of North American Benefits Networks by the Scandent Group. Growing up, The Economist, May 20, Indian BPO industry headed towards consolidation, Nasscom BPO Newsline, found at retrieved March 21, Offshoring triggers M&A deals, India Times, Infotech, Jan. 17, 2005, found at retrieved Jan. 18, Many top Indian BPO outfits under threat: Gartner, Hindustan Times, March 27, 2005, found at retrieved March 30, Neeraj Saxena, BPO consolidation = 100 M&A?, Infotech, Oct. 5, 2005, found at retrieved Nov. 1,

15 commoditized service, so people have no qualms about switching from one BPO company to another if 35 the price is lower. Many BPOs, especially call centers, also reported having worker retention and absentee problems during this phase. Nasscom estimates that the number of Indian business process outsourcing companies has grown from 285 in FY to approximately 425 in FY These companies include a combination of captive units and third party ventures. Nasscom also estimated that captive BPO firms dominate total business process outsourcing revenues by contributing 65 percent, while third-party players account for 36 much of the remaining 35 percent. The top 10 captive firms are said to account for approximately 26 percent of the sector s revenues and more than 30 percent of its employees in FY2004. The two largest groups of companies include those owned wholly or in part by multinationals primarily from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Indian-owned third-party players. Current world market: The global market for business process services outsourcing is 37 projected to grow from $123.8 billion in 2004 to $133.7 billion by Estimates also predict that the global call center help desk services market is expected to grow from $3.5 billion to $6.1 billion during The North American market is the largest outsourcer of business process services followed by Japan and the EU (principally the United Kingdom). The U.S. market accounts for more than 70 percent of the global BPO market and 80 percent of India s business process outsourcing business. India s business process outsourcing Indian sector size and market share: Although business process outsourcing only accounts for 1 percent of India s GDP and less than 2 percent of its annual job creation, it has evolved into the 39 most dynamic sector of India s booming economy. According to Gartner, Inc., India presently accounts 40 for 85 percent of the world s business process outsourcing market. India s revenues from software and business process outsourcing services exports to the United States were roughly $8.5 billion in 2004, 41 accounting for 70 percent of its total services exports. Nasscom reports that revenues of the Indian business process outsourcing sector increased by 44 percent from $2.5 billion in to $3.6 billion 42 in (table 2). This sector is projected to reach $5.2 billion in and $16 billion by Nearly 70 percent of India s business process outsourcing revenues come from call centers, 20 percent from other types of high-volume and low-value data work, and the remainder consisted of higher- 35 Parvathy Ullatil, Cut-throat competition puts pressure on BPO margins, rediff.com, May 14, 2004, found at retrieved May 18, BPO s FY04 capex at $1.5 bn, may beat IT soon, The Economic Times, Aug. 18, 2004, found at retrieved Aug. 18, Gartner sees seller s market for BPO, Business Standard, April 1, 2005, found at retrieved Apr. 1, IT and ITES/BPO Exports of India, Embassy of India, Washington, DC, found at retrieved Jan. 12, Ibid. Parija Bhatnagar, Is India s outsourcing honeymoon over?, CNN Money, Aug. 24, 2005, found at retrieved Aug. 30, Robert D. Atkinson, Understanding the offshoring Challenge, Progressive Policy Institute, May 2004, found at retrieved March 17, Nasscom. 11

17 Indian companies appear to be moving up the value-added chain in the BPO market to provide higher skilled and more sophisticated services. Indian business process outsourcing firms are now performing tasks such as computer chip design, information technology services, architecture, 47 engineering and design, business consulting, pharmaceutical research, and financial analysis. The expanded scope of high value-added services comes partly with investments from U.S. multinationals. IBM, General Electric, Cisco, Intel, Motorola, Texas Instruments and other U.S. multinationals have 48 established research and development centers in India. For example, General Electric s second largest research center is located in Bangalore, and it was reported that the company will increase its research and development (R&D) staff from 1,600 to 2,400 technicians. Indian scientists are also returning from the United States to the country to work in these R&D centers, and the number of India patent 49 applications grew from 4,000 in 1995 to approximately 15,000 in According to Frost & Sullivan, the India business process outsourcing research and development market is expected to have grown from $1.3 billion in 2003 to $9.1 billion by Locational advantage: India s comparative advantage lies in its highly developed and successful IT sector, its reputation for low-cost high quality work. India s BPO sector has a large pool of low-wage English speaking IT knowledge workers, a strong educational tradition, growing Internet and 51 telecommunications capabilities, and a favorable time zone differential (Box 2). In 2004, the 47 Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenney, Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India, The Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, Nov R&D in India:The Curtain Rises, The Plague Has Begun..., Knowledge Wharton, found at retrieved March 17, Swaminomics/Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar, R&D: India s New Star Industry, The Economic Times, April 10, 2004, found at retrieved June 3, India to see R&D outsourcing boom, rediff.com, Apr. 26, 2004, found at retrieved Apr. 26, Depending on daylight savings time, India is either 9.5 or 10.5 hours ahead of the U.S. (Eastern standard time) that could enable U.S. companies to operate on a 24/7 basis. For the typical Indian call center, manpower typically accounts for 55 to 60 percent of total costs. In contrast to the United States, where many call center workers 13

18 International Labor Organization summarized these advantages by reporting that whereas, the outsourcing of lower-skilled, less-paid jobs is not a new phenomenon, increasing educational and skill levels in developing countries enjoying labor cost advantages, India and China predominant among them, may be attracting jobs once thought relatively immune to relocation. 52 The international business process outsourcing industry can be divided into two basic categories: English-speaking and non-english speaking. U.S. companies represent approximately 70 percent of global offshoring, giving India an advantage because it has one of the world s largest English-speaking population. Box 2: India s comparative advantages Human capital advantages: Large pool of low-cost computer literate English speaking professionals (2 million college graduates per year) with strong technical and quantitative skills. India has over 270 universities and 2,400 professional colleges graduating large numbers of science, technology, finance, business, engineering students. India presently has approximately 200,000 to 250,000 computer literate workers. India system places great emphasis on science and mathematical skills. Economic advantages: Workforce of million (2004) and purchasing power parity of $3,100. Offer savings in the range of 40 to 60 percent with manpower cost between one-tenth to one-fifth of wages earned by American IT workers. Higher free cash flow due to reduced investments in physical infrastructure, telecom services and equipment, wage arbitrage has also led to increased cost savings. Compared to countries like China, the Philippines, and Malaysia, India has a comparative advantage in superior project management skills. Booming BPO sector where employment has increased by 479 percent since 1999 also has access to IT software technology parks and other central and state government incentives. Telecommunications service: India has the world s fifth largest public sector telecommunications network. Reliable satellite and submarine communications links; significant reduction in telecommunication rates, privatization has brought greater access to competitive cellular, basic, paging, Internet, and international gateway services offered by the private sector vendors. Government has liberalized telecommunications sector permitting 100 percent FDI. Adequate physical infrastructure. Strong flow of global venture capital. Improved efficiencies and high service levels due to streamlined processes. General institutional comparability: India has a well developed banking system and capital markets. Democratic government and relative political stability. Independent judiciary with Western legal and accounting systems, media, and advertising. Other important factors: Leveraging time zone differential (GMT + 4.5) that enables timely turn around time and 24x7 services. Work practices largely comply with international quality assurance standards (SEI-CMM Level 5, ISO 9000, TQM, Six Sigma Quality, BS 7799, and COPC). Proliferation of software parks and Export Enterprise Zones. Information Technology Act 2000 brought e-commerce within the purview of the law and provides for stringent punishment of cyber crimes. Real estate and general and administrative expenses are low in comparison with the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. Sources: Nasscom, Gartner, McKinsey Global, The Economist, The Financial Express, Business Week, Forrester. are high school graduates, India s call center workforce consists primarily of college graduates with excellent linguistic skills. This provides an overall improvement in the quality of services. 52 International Labor Organization, World Employment Report , found at retrieved July 22,

19 Trade liberalization: Since the late 1990s, the Indian central government has liberalized the domestic and international telecommunications services, helped establish several Software Technology Parks and Export Enterprise zones, offered tax holidays similar to those enjoyed by the software industry. Various state governments have also provided assistance to companies in their internal recruitment, 53 retention, and training programs to attract business process outsourcing firms to their states. India s business process outsourcing (BPO) industry that began with data processing centers and customer call centers has rapidly progressed up the outsourcing value-added chain. The digital revolution and the 12- hour time differential between India and locations in the developed world opened up a range of services (customer interaction, back office operations, accounting, data entry, human resource services, market research and consultancy) that are provided in India. Wage rate advantage: The wage gap between the United States and India is significant, and the outsourcing of business services functions has enabled U.S. corporations to achieve labor cost savings of 40 to 50 percent of those costs in the United States. Kenny (2003) has estimated the wage level for the typical call center worker in India is approximately $10,354 per year, as compared to 54 $55,598 in the United States. Likewise, annual salaries for computer programmers in the United States range between $60,000 to $90,000 whereas their Indian counterparts currently earn between $6,000 to $10,000 per year (table 4). Table 4: Wage differentials between the United States and India ( ) Profession U.S. wage per hour Indian wage per hour Silicon Valley wage per hour Telephone operator $12.57 Less than $1.00 $13.24 Health-records technologists, medical transcriptionist $13.17 $1.50 to $2.00 $14.54 Payroll clerk $15.17 $1.50 to $2.00 $19.50 Data entry clerk $20.00 $1.50 to $2.00 $24.44 Legal assistant, paralegal $17.86 $6.00 to $8.00 NA Accountant $23.35 $6.00 to $10.00 $27.00 Computer programmer $28.90 $3.00 to $10.00 $38.85 Financial research analyst $33.00 to $35.00 $6.00 to $15.00 $34.00 Software designer $60.00 $6.00 NA Software engineer $ $18.00 NA Entry level programmers (annual salary) $50,000 to $60,000 $8,000 to $10,000 NA Sources: Nasscom, Hindustan Times, McKinsey Global Institute, U. Cal Berkeley, Department of Labor (BLS). 53 India s value proposition, Nasscom, retrieved Dec. 28, Rafiq Dossani and Martin Kenny, Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality?: Moving the Back Office to India, The Asia-Pacific Research Center (APRAC), Stanford University, Nov

20 Geographic BPO concentration: Since its inception, India s business process outsourcing industry has been concentrated in the cities of New Delhi (including Gurgaon and Noida), Mumbai, and Bangalore. These three locations account for approximately 62 percent of India s total business process outsourcing firms as of February 2003 (table 5). Bangalore, commonly referred to as India s Silicon Valley, accounts for more than 35 percent of India s software exports ($4.2 billion in FY ), 50 percent of total U.S. investment, and employs the largest number of software professionals in the world 55 except for Osaka, Japan. Bangalore is also the R&D home in India for Hewlett Packard, General Electric, Google, Cisco, Intel, Sun Microsystems, Motorola, and Microsoft. Table 5: Concentration of Indian business process outsourcing companies by city and state, 2003 City BPOs State BPOs New Delhi (including Gurgaon, Noida) Bangalore Mumbai Others Hyderabad Chennai Pune Kolkata Chandigarh Ahmedabad Total Maharashtra Karnataka Andhara Pradesh Haryana Uttar Pradesh Tamil Nadu Others New Delhi Punjab (Chandigarh UT) West Bengal Source: BPO: Spreading Out, Voice & Data, Feb. 26, The Indian government is attempting to attract BPO investment into other cities. Since January 2005, Nasscom and the IT Ministry have been encouraging new entrants to consider locating in India s smaller cities and rural areas since Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore are plagued with high employee attrition and absentee rates, the rising cost of labor, and taxed physical infrastructures. Nasscom expects that over the next few years nearly 30 percent of India s outsourcing revenues will come from smaller 56 cities. Consulting firm Gartner Research divided India s core BPO cities into four basic tiers based on factors like infrastructure, skills availability access, cost of living, political support, and quality of life 57 (table 6). Tier I cities, according to Gartner Research, are the most attractive in terms of skills availability, infrastructure, access, and lifestyle-factors. These cities continue to dominate in terms of the number of BPO units. Less congested Tier I-1 cities lag only slightly behind Tier 1 cities in what they 55 It is estimated that over 110,000 Indians work as IT professionals in Bangalore primarily for multinationals from the United States, Europe, Japan, and China. Karnataka plans to promote smaller cities as IT hubs, found at retrieved Aug. 14, Bangalore, like other Indian cities, suffers from water shortages, erratic power supply, and inadequate sewers, streets, and roads. The Outsourcing History of India, Outsource2India, found at retrieved Jan. 12, These categories were developed by Gartner Research and the factors it surveyed included: infrastructure (electrical power, water, telecom, roads, airport, real estate), skills availability (entry level, lateral recruits, global MNC experienced, language), skills retention (tack record of retention trends, maturity and stability of work-force, resource mix), access (international connectivity, domestic connectivity, hotel availability), cost of living, real estate prices, political support (central, state, local, software technology parks of India), overall quality of life. Partha Iyengar, IT outsourcing to India - Analysis of Cities, Gartner, Inc. 16

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