30 September, 2014

“Israeli
intelligence has given up to modern trends and introduced an online
questionnaire for would-be spies. Unlike the businesslike CIA or MI5
web draft campaigns, Israelis are luring volunteers with mystery halo
always shrouding Mossad’s activities.”

“Mossad
has become one of the last intelligence agencies in the world that
vouchsafed to recruiting volunteer spies online, facilitating the
induction process for those who always wanted to be a secret agent,
but considered it unattainable.”

“The
agency’s online recruiting website, available in Arabic, English,
French, Hebrew, Persian and Russian, looks like a creatively designed
product, wrapping spy activities in bright and attractive packaging.
The intelligence outlet calls on to potential candidates to 'create
history,' make their life and 'join the invisible to make the
impossible.'”

“The
internet resource contains general information about Mossad, its
history, directors and an initial online job application. In case a
candidate is invited for an interview, there are three more detailed
forms to be completed by hand: a medical confidentiality/information
authorization, security questionnaire and another security
questionnaire for a spouse/partner.”

29 September, 2014

While
Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, tried to appear placatory to
the Western block, concerning Russia's moves to modernize nuclear and
conventional arsenals, various signs show that both Western and
Sino-Russian blocks entered a new frenzied arms race.

“Russia’s
investment in its military is not a sign of a looming new arms race
but rather a long-overdue modernization, Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov said in an interview with RT and the VGTRK media corporation.”

“Lavrov
was commenting on the US plan to overhaul its nuclear arsenals, which
was announced by President Barack Obama this week.'The US nuclear
arsenal is somewhat younger than ours, but perhaps it is also time
for them to upgrade it. I just hope that the US will abide by the
provisions of the New START treaty, which are legally binding,'
Lavrov said. 'It is fine to upgrade your stockpile, replacing old
weapons with new ones, but there are certain restrictions on how many
weapons you can have, and all these restrictions are still in
place.'”

“Moscow
needs a strong defensive force because it sees hostile actions by
NATO, an organization rooted in the past that never ceased to see
Russia as an enemy, Lavrov said.”

“The
minister said he doubts that the current period of tension with the
West will reach the level of the old Cold War. But Western
politicians are trapped in their own anti-Russian rhetoric, he said.”

“Lavrov
called on the West, and particularly the US, to stop trying to do
everything their own way with no consideration for the bigger picture
and the interests of other nations.”

27 September, 2014

“Mario
Draghi, the ECB President, continues to profess optimism that the
Eurozone will recover in the 2nd half of this year. Hopefully, his
native country is not the basis for this optimism.”

“Last
year it stayed within its Maastricht deficit limit of 3% of GDP.
Indeed, the government had a 2.2% primary surplus. And yet public
debt rose, as a % of GDP, from 127% to 132.6%! Which means that Italy
must keep borrowing (in net terms) even if it has the largest primary
surplus in the Eurozone and manages to stay within the Maastricht
deficit limits. In euro terms, it needs to pay annually 85 billion in
interest (on a €2 trillion debt) of which it must borrow €50
billion.”

“From
this perspective, the Renzi government, but also its neoliberal
detractors, are in a bind. The only solution (i.e. in confronting
Merkel) is outside their remit and imagination. Thus, they keep
falling deeper and deeper into the vortex. Meanwhile, Germany’s
polity shows no signs of even an interest in discussing the
substance.”

“... we should expect a new
attack quite soon against the spreads of Spain and Italy, forcing
these countries to turn to ECB permanently as the exclusive source
of funding, which means that they will adopt new austerity
measures and further dismantling of the social state and labor
rights, as required by the banks and multinational cartels and as
it happens again and again in Greece.”

“We will start with Italy and
Spain. We will order rating agencies to attack, exclude them from
markets and throw them to the ECB trap. They will be forced to
take similar measures, as Greece did, in order to receive
liquidity. Then, we will attack France and Germany.”

“UNHCR's
new 'Asylum Trends' report, which is based on data received from 44
governments in Europe, North America and parts of the Asia-Pacific,
says 330,700 people asked for refugee status in these 44 countries
between the start of January and the end of June. The figure marks a
rise of 24 per cent from the same period a year earlier, and slightly
higher than in the second half of last year (328,100 claims).”

“The
report warned that, based on historical trends showing higher numbers
of asylum-seekers in the second half of each year, 2014 could
produce as many as 700,000 claims – which would make it the
highest level in industrialized countries in 20 years and a level not
seen since the 1990s conflict in former Yugoslavia.”

“Of the
net overall increase in new claims shown in the report, more than two
thirds of these were in just six countries – Germany, the United
States, France, Sweden, Turkey and Italy.”

“Overall,
Syria was the main country of origin of people seeking asylum with a
more than two-fold increase (48,400 claims compared to 18,900 in the
same period in 2013). Iraq, where hundreds of thousands of people
have become newly displaced this year, produced 21,300 asylum
applications, followed by Afghanistan (19,300) and Eritrea (18,900).”

“Applications
for refugee status in industrialized countries are just one element
in the global picture of forced displacement from wars and conflict.
As of the end of 2013, some 51.2 million people were forcibly
displaced worldwide. Most remain either internally displaced
within their own countries, else as refugees hosted in states
bordering onto war zones.”

26 September, 2014

“Friday,
26th September marks the first ever Day for the Total Elimination of
Nuclear Weapons as decreed by the United Nations General Assembly and
events are being organised around the world by anti-nuclear networks
such as UNFOLD ZERO and ICAN (the International Campaign Against
Nuclear Weapons).”

“Alyn
Ware, Right Livelihood Laureate and co-founder of the UNFOLD ZERO
campaign said, ‘There are over 16,000 nuclear weapons in the world.
The use of any nuclear weapon by accident, miscalculation or intent
would create catastrophic human, environmental and financial
consequences. There should be zero nuclear weapons in the world.’”

“The
Washington Post has published an exclusive report about the US
National Security Agency’s surveillance activities, but withheld
information of 'considerable intelligence value,' including a
secret overseas nuclear project.”

“... such
an "official channel" may inject information inside the
web, the information goes viral, and finally, people will start to
get used to the idea of even the most terrifying scenarios, like
those of a nuclear conflict, or, radical population control.”

“Under
the pretext of responding to a federal budget sequestration, the
CSIS study suggests the United States 'maintain its full triad of
bombers, submarines, and intercontinental ballistic missiles meant
to deter or carry out nuclear warfare' as emphasis shifts from the
Middle East to an ultimate confrontation with Russia and China.”

“I
have a very difficult time believing that the Russians or the
Chinese are going to jump the gun as far as military actions are
concerned. They understand what the stakes are, because the next
war, if there is a war, is not going to be fought with tactical
weapons, it is going to be a thermonuclear war, which very well
could be the end of civilization.”

The
plan evolves according to the willing of the elites as nation-states
approach their permanent dissolution

by system
failure

From Ukraine
to Middle East, we see all kinds of fighters of various nationalities
fighting on both sides. Private armies, mercenaries and fortune
hunters are present in various battlefields, many of them aiming only
to earn more money. Globalized wars are here and doing the job of
those who dream the dissolution of nation-states.

The picture
of the ISIS fighters praising the dissolving of the Iraqi-Syrian
borders is characteristic. The powers behind the artificial
construction of many nation-states, in the Middle-East and elsewhere,
have now decided that these are not useful anymore as they cannot
serve their plans for total, global domination.

ISIS
fighters' threats concerning potential attacks in Western countries
serve perfectly the plan, which is to transfer the wars from borders
to urban centers. Indeed, since a citizen of any Western country,
attached to the ISIS or other extremist groups, is determined to die
in a bloodbath at the heart of this country, the protection of
borders has no meaning, and citizens start to wonder about the
ability of the nation-state to protect them.

Moreover,
the systemic establishment finds another excuse to justify further
suppression measures by an increasingly militarized police, thus
increasing the hostility of the citizens against the state. The
Western urban state not only fails to protect its citizens but on the
contrary, is turning against them.

But it's not
only that. As the economic crisis hit heavily many Western countries,
threatening the most developed countries of the eurozone too, as the
welfare state rapidly dissolved and the majority suffers from heavy
taxes and austerity measures, while the governments-puppets vote more
tax reliefs for the economic elites and banksters who have been
bailed-out by the taxpayers, more and more people start to wonder
about the necessity of the nation-state.

What we see
here is actually a vicious cycle: The more the poverty and
inequality grow, the more extremism finds new material, especially
among the youngest people who suffer from unemployment. The more the
extremism grows, the more the suppression imposed by the state to the
citizens increases, and so on. And this gives the suitable
justification for an increasingly militarized police ready to operate
at the heart of urban centers.

There will
be no need for distinction between the army and the police in future:
“It's not accidental that the arms industries demonstrate new
weapons designed to be used inside urban areas for suppression of
potential riots. There will be no 'outside enemy' in the future. The
threat for the dominant system will come from the interior, the big
urban centers. Soldier-robots will protect worker-robots and
resources.”
(http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/08/the-dominant-elite-ready-to-break.html)

Scottish-type
referendums show the desperation of people to escape from such a
situation, but the puzzlement of the Scottish people was obvious. No
one knew actually how the next day would be in case of independence.
On the other hand, the propaganda of fear was launched in this case
by the system which showed signs of panic, like many times in Greece
the latest years of crisis. Why? Maybe the answer can be found in the
new Sino-Russian block alternative:
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/08/an-alternative-to-neoliberal.html

25 September, 2014

The
global neoliberal dictatorship imposes policies without taking
account people

An
interesting story by Yanis Varoufakis*

"Terra
Nullius" is a law term of Anglo-Saxon origin. Its roots go back
to the philosophy of John Locke who developed the relation between
human work with the right in land ownership.

Locke put
the following question: When does someone has a true right on a piece
of land? To answer this philosophically, he asks us to imagine a
hypothetical case where some people discover a desert island where no
man has gone until now, it's not even on the map. The people land on
the island and declare that it belongs to them. Do they have the
right to do that? Locke asks. Yes, he answers, under one condition:
This land, not only should be empty of people - “Terra Nullius” -
which means that no one else should have rights upon it, but also,
the people who just arrived should work on this land, producing
goods. Then, the part of this land that they will cultivate, will
belong to them and no one - individuals or states- will have a right
to take it from them.

In a sense,
this was the beginning of the political economy which much later
developed by Marx. It's not accidental that Marx starts, as Locke,
with the hypothesis that everything resulting from human toil, that
the value of things result from the work they contain. It's a
hypothesis upon which Marx built his economic theories, the three
volumes of "Capital", for example.

When the
British arrived in Australia in 1788 as colonists, they were
determined to declare it as their property. But how could that stand
in the English law concerning property rights, as this was based on
John Locke? The only way to persuade themselves that, in the end,
they had rights on the Australian land, was to consider it as “Terra
Nullius”, cultivate it and thus declare that rightfully belongs to
them.

There was a
"small problem" of course. The "Terra" was not
"Nullius". It was already inhabitable by five million
Aboriginals. How did they solve this problem? Simply, they supported
that Aboriginals were not one hundred percent humans! They
characterized this way Australia as "Terra Nullius"
concerning people. The result is known: The wiping of Aboriginals
who, today, questionably reach 150 thousands. This vulgar
classification of pre-1788 Australia as "Terra Nullius",
was abolished in 1988 by the Australian Supreme Court, that is 200
years later.

This story
concerns not only Australia. It concerns all the cases of
colonialism, of the systematic suppression of a people by another.
Greece may not be considered officially-legally as "Terra
Nullius" by the Troika, but Greeks, Spaniards, Portuguese,
Irish, German poor, ghetto inhabitants around the Paris suburbs, were
ultimately treated as less than one hundred percent humans. These
countries and regions are considered institutionally empty, with no
populations who have the right to shape their future. Any memorandums
would not be written as they are written today, if their writers
would not had a dose of "Terra Nullius" in their way of
thinking.

* From
the premiere of the radio broadcast "Terra Nullius" with
Yanis Varoufakis at the Greek radio station "Sto Kokkino"

In such an environment everyone
will be left alone to survive. Human life will totally lose value.
This is the return to perfect barbarism. Many still believe in the
myth of the free market. They have an ideal situation in mind
where everyone will be free from the state suppression and the
free market will drive societies and individuals to balance and
prosperity. It's just an illusion because in reality the game is
more rigged than ever. We are not talking about capitalism, not
even neoliberalism. We are talking about the new global, brutal
feudalism!

Are you
confused by what is going on in the Middle East? Let me explain.

We [the US]
support the Iraqi government in the fight against Islamic State. We
don't like IS, but IS is supported by Saudi Arabia, whom we do like.

We don't
like President Assad in Syria. We support the fight against him, but
not IS, which is also fighting against him.

We don't
like Iran, but Iran supports the Iraqi government against IS. So,
some of our friends support our enemies and some of our enemies are
our friends, and some of our enemies are fighting against our other
enemies, whom we want to lose, but we don't want our enemies who are
fighting our enemies to win.

If the
people we want to defeat are defeated, they might be replaced by
people we like even less. And all this was started by us invading a
country to drive out terrorists who weren't actually there until we
went in to drive them out.

24 September, 2014

“504
Palestinian children are confirmed killed during the 50 day war. The
cumulative death toll among Palestinians is at least 2,152, including
260 women, according to the continued collection of
preliminary data by the Protection Cluster from various sources. It
is reported that the cumulative Israeli
fatality toll is 71, of whom 66 were soldiers and one civilian
fatality was a child.”

“The
situation in Gaza remains tense. In addition to a
projectile being fired towards Israel on 16 September, there have
also been a number of incidents of Israeli Navy opening fire towards
Palestinian fishing boats (on 15 and 17 September).
Palestinians in Gaza continue to feel uncertain about the future,
expressing concern about the unstable political and security
environment and ongoing deterioration in the socioeconomic
situation.”

“Western
sanctions are having an unintended effect. They are accelerating the
birth of a parallel ecosystem where countries not allied to the West
are able to operate without the constant threat of sanctions. Free of
western control, this alternative platform is gaining traction at a
surprisingly fast pace.”

“The
move towards a non-western world is happening most rapidly in the
area of finance. This is hardly surprising because financial flows
are easier to reroute – and replace – than say, a shipment of
coal or an oil tanker.”

“It is
now abundantly clear to Moscow that the US-UK evil twins are not
content with symbolic sanctions but are really out to destroy its
economy. Anticipating this blow to its financial jugular, Russia had
in July drawn up a law that would create a local equivalent of
SWIFT.”

“Vesti
Finance says sanctions aimed at restricting Russian access to finance
will have almost no sense, since Russian companies will find the
necessary money in China. And the Chinese are keen to increase the
impact of the renminbi and turn it into the world’s reserve
currency.”

“The
move to a parallel payment system is happening in tandem with the
ditching of the US dollar on which the entire US economy – and
hegemony – pivots. The dollar’s status as the reserve currency is
due to it being the only currency accepted de-dollarizationin the
petroleum market, which is why it’s also known as the petrodollar.
That’s about to change as Russia and other emerging powers are
planning to drop the petrodollar and end the dollar’s reserve
status.”

“...
the Russian oil company [Gazprom Neft] has started shipping oil from
the Arctic and the tankers will arrive in European ports this month,
with payment to be received in rubles. Gazprom will also deliver oil
via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO), accepting
payment in Chinese renminbi.”

“Worth
mentioning is that the Siberia-sized $400 billion gas contract with
China – which Moscow and Beijing had haggled over for a decade –
finally got inked in May 2014, after westerns sanctions kicked in.”

“So in
effect, by not playing by the rules and systems set by the West they
are creating an alternative arrangement in which they neither enter
into conflict situations with the West nor enter into subservient
alliances (like those offered to South Korea and Japan). Years from
now, westerners will ruefully look back at the sanctions as the
tipping point that ushered in a world without the West.”

What we see now, is a cruel
battle with time. On the one hand, Russia and China, together with
the rest of the BRICS, are trying to get rid of the dollar and
form their own currency system to gain complete independence, on
the other, the neocon banking-corporate puppets in the US are in
panic and seek desperately a pretext to come to war with Russia
and put an end to this threat for their plans. This explains their
agony to drag Russia into a warm conflict.

Western block's actions not only
failed to isolate Russia, but seems that managed to expand
Russia's and China's geopolitical influence. [...] This is a
unique opportunity for Argentina and Latin America to show to
other debt-enslaved countries that there is an alternative against
the money market tyranny.

The Greek
PM, Antonis Samaras, is visiting Angela Merkel in Berlin today, in a
last attempt to beg for assistance, as all recent polls show that
SYRIZA "threat" would win in possible national elections in
Greece.

All
information show that Samaras will request a king of "relief"
from the tightened austerity imposed by Berlin, while there is also
some information speaking about a new discussion about the Greek
debt, probably a further lengthening.

Berlin's
position is also difficult, as on the one hand, it does not want to
disturb the European and German banking and economic elites who are
profiting from this crisis seeking for the successful completion of
the experiment in Greece which totally serves their plans, on the
other, it does not want to risk a possible anti-neoliberal coalition
in Greece with the main Leftist party, SYRIZA, in charge.

All signs
show that Angela will say "no" to Antonis, as the Germans
have another reason to persist in their catastrophic policies: This
is to send a signal to the rising Left in Greece, and consequently,
to the Left in Europe, not to even think about to change the imposed
policies in case they will come to power.

In other
words, what we see now is a process during which, the German and
European economic elites are trying to transform the European Left
into a more systemic-friendly political power, as it has been done
with the Socialists in the past, in order to maintain their
sovereignty and expand the Greek experiment throughout Europe.

The battle
will be cruel. Whatever the European oligarchs plan, a rapid and
massive rise of the Left in Europe, is probably the only chance for
the majority to win the new class war this time.

“The
United States plans to spend more than $1 trillion to revitalize its
antiquated nuclear arsenal over the next three decades, according to
a new report.”

“The
Obama administration has dedicated a 'sprawling new plant' in Kansas
City, Mo.--bigger than the Pentagon-- to modernize 'the aging weapons
that the United States can fire from missiles, bombers and
submarines,' ...”

“The
Kansas City National Security Campus is part of a 'wave of atomic
revitalization that includes plans for a new generation of weapon
carriers,' ...”

“...
because of 'political deals and geopolitical crises,' the Obama
administration is overseeing an extensive modernization of its atomic
arsenal while implementing only modest arms reductions, ...”

“Gary
Samore, Obama’s top nuclear adviser in his first term, said that
Russia’s actions in Ukraine were a major factor. 'That has made any
measure to reduce the stockpile unilaterally politically
impossible.'”

“Congressional
hawks believe that the new plan will put the United States in a
'stronger position if a new arms race breaks out'
and hope the renovated nuclear plants could allow the US
arsenal to 'expand rapidly' under a different president*,
...”

It
appears that the SCO formation in 2001 was another tactical win by
the Sino-Russian block, against the - occupied with the war on
terrorism - West, to be used against future plans by the global
neoliberal dictatorship, which would probably include the dissolution
of the vast Russian territory and the dangerous isolation of China by
land and sea.
(http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/03/western-hypocrites-defeat-in-crimea_17.html)

“From
August 24-29, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held
'Peace Mission 2014' at China’s Zhurihe Training Base, in Inner
Mongolia in North China. Peace Mission 2014 was the largest
military exercise conducted by the SCO, with five of the six
member countries participating (China, Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan but not Uzbekistan).”

“The
new Chinese leadership seems eager to cultivate defense ties with
Russia. During Xi’s March 2013 Moscow visit, when he became the
first Chinese president to visit the Russian Armed Forces
Operational Command Center, Xi said that, 'My visit to the Russian
Defense Ministry is intended to confirm that military, political
and strategic relations between the two countries will strengthen
as will cooperation between the Armed Forces of China and
Russia.'”

“At
the time, PRC Defense Minister General Chang Wanquan told his
Russian counterpart, General Sergei Shoigu, that 'China is ready
to work with Russia to tap that potential and expand the scope of
bilateral defense co-operation, so as to lift it to a new level.'”

“At
the beginning of Peace Mission 2014, General Valery Gerasimov,
chief of the general staff of the armed forces of Russia, said
that, 'Russia is ready to make joint efforts with China to lift
the relationship to a new high.'”

“NATO’s
decision to suspend military cooperation and contacts with Russia
following Moscow’s annexation of the Crimea is leading Moscow to
place more emphasis on strengthening security cooperation with
Beijing.”

The
recent common military exercise by the SCO countries, was not only a
message to Washington, but also a real test against provocative
actions inside the Chinese territory. As the neocons have foolishly
opened fronts in the Ukraine and Middle East, the Chinese probably
fear that they may use other alternatives to weaken country's
coherence, exploiting probably semi-autonomous regions.
(http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/06/21/367928/chinese-police-kill-13-after-attack/)
It would not be the first time of using such tactics after all. The
nature of this exercise justifies such possibility.

Meanwhile,
as the US see the global balances changing fast against them, any
"confidence" left between the Sino-Russian and Western
block, vanishes, leading to a dangerous frenzied race of military
armaments from both sides:

“If you
thought no-knock SWAT raids to serve warrants for non-violent crimes
was the epitome of tyranny, wait until you get a load of private
mercenaries conducting special forces-type raids on American
citizens.”

“...
California admits that Blackwater-like private 'security' contractors
are now being used to 'police pot'. Mysterious soldiers repelled out
of unmarked helicopters fully armed for war to raid legal medical
cannabis gardens last month. They didn't identify themselves or
present paperwork of any kind. They just destroyed the garden and
left. Other witnesses claim this invading army is also 'confiscating'
product.”

“This
is the ultimate 'feeler' story in the unfolding Totalitarian Tip-Toe
if I've ever seen one. A quirky local story of 'mystery men' used to
raise the public threshold of acceptable tyranny, aka legitimizing
private-sector soldiers for law enforcement.”

“The
war machine seems to be testing to gauge how much terror they can
inflict on peaceful Americans before they say WTF (See Ferguson) and,
perhaps more importantly, to see if the public will allow this vast
new market for war profiteers.”

“The
manipulation continued a day after this story was reported, when Alex
Altman of TIME wrote 'Californians Turn to Private Security to Police
Pot Country' as if all the citizens of California have agreed to this
type of policing.”

“At
best our tax dollars are being used to fund private armies for large
land owners. At worst, when will we see these warriors policing BLM
land (aka National Parks)? Wait for it.”

“The
public is supposed to believe Lear is merely an environmental
clean-up team doing community service who just so happens to have
military special ops capability. How quaint. I didn't know litter
maintenance required AR-15s. But who would opposed protecting the
environment? Smart marketing.”

“The
creepiest thing about this development is that it's a clever more
professional repackaging of a previous attempt to introduce private
police in America.”

“Well,
we know the U.S. military uses private contractors in foreign wars,
and we know the Pentagon is arming and militarizing domestic police,
and we know the U.S. Army is training to enter law enforcement. It
seems to me that it's all part of the plan to keep the war machine
churning and to control the population.”

We see
a rise of private armies that act in various battlefields, like in
Ukraine, exactly because in the absence of the nation-states and
the national armies, someone has to protect the natural resources
and the new means of production for the dominant elite.

But
when the arms industry will fully automate the new weapons,
private armies will only serve as assistance to fully automated
war machines. We already see the test fields of the weapons of
future˙the drones in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere.

It's not accidental that the arms
industries demonstrate new weapons designed to be used inside
urban areas for suppression of potential riots. There will be no
"outside enemy" in the future. The threat for the
dominant system will come from the interior, the big urban
centers. Soldier-robots will protect worker-robots and resources.

21 September, 2014

“Clashes
happened on Sunday at the Turkish-Syrian border as Turkish security
troops fired tear gas and water cannons on Syrian Kurd refugees
trying to flee the onslaught of Islamic State militants.”

“Amid
the clashes, Turkish authorities temporarily closed the border,
through which at least 70,000 people have fled the violence in
Syria this week.”

“There
were conflicting reports on what triggered the clashes. The state-run
Anadolu Agency said the Kurds started throwing stones at the security
forces trying to keep out a large group of Kurdish onlookers. Private
NTV television said the group wanted to transport aid to Syrian Kurds
on the other side of the border.”

“The
altercations happened after the Kurdish militant Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK) called on young Turkish Kurds to take up arms and go to
Syria to help Kurds against IS attacks. The PKK has fought for
secession from Turkey for three decades and is considered a terrorist
organization by Ankara.”

“According
to estimates by the UN’s refugee agency, at least 70,000 Kurds,
most of them women, children and elderly people, have fled to Turkey
since Saturday alone. The total number of refugees may be as high as
100,000.”