A trough of low pressure will result in increasing rain chances
today. Widespread rain is expected with a late Thursday and
Friday cold front.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Warm, moist advection and a nwd surging warm/dewpoint front should
continue to result in clouds and minimal light rain chances
overnight. Most of the radar returns N of I 80 are virga, with
only ocnl very light precip reaching the ground.
The cloud blanket and continued warm advection into the overnight
should also hold temperature up - expect readings about 10 to
15 degrees above the averages.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively active short term period will be punctuated by one
unfavorable upper level period from late Wednesday night into
the early half of Thursday. Before this time, left exit regiondivergence will drive ascent with a passing wave Wednesday.
Warm advection in the interim will maintain a column far too
warm for anything but liquid precipitation, but forcing should
be weak enough to preclude any problems from the rainfall.
After the first wave passes, an interval in an unfavorable
right exit of the jet with ample boundary layermoisture will
yield a period of light rain and drizzle before rapid
intensification of the upper flow starts to occur toward the end
of the week. As this occurs, the upper jet will continue its
eastward meander and yield a right entrance region of a roughly
185 kt 250 mbjet streak smack over our area. As such, rainfall
rates will likely intensify going into Thursday overnight and
Friday with a strong cold front sagging slowly through the area.
This will be a period to watch going forward as local rainfall
put upstreamrainfall in WV may yield flooding problems. A floodwatch was considered with this forecast, however after
consultation, it was determined more consistency in the corridor
of intense QPF was warranted.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rapidly drying and cooling conditions will move into the area
from the northwest late Friday and Friday night. This will end
the rain threat temporarily and bring a short period of snow in
the post-frontal environment. High pressure will then control
the area for a short time as cold as retreats and return flow
allows temperatures to jump back above normal.
The large scale pattern amplified greatly in the extended per
the model consensus, with the mean upper trough centered in the
western CONUS and rapidly strengthening Bermuda high off the
coast allowing for deep upper southwesterly flow through the
Mississippi Valley and into the northeastern U.S. This will mean
subtropical moisture moving into the area next week with
temperatures far above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

MVFR cigs expected to develop near daybreak with increasing
rain chances over the course of the day. Rain most likely mid-
afternoon and through the evening...with IFR or lower
restrictions based off of latest forecast soundings and
analogs.
.OUTLOOK...
Widespread rain with cig/vis restrictions are likely with a
late Thu/Fri cold front.