January jobs report: 113,000 jobs added, 6.6% unemployment rate

posted at 8:36 am on February 7, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The American economy once again failed to keep up with population growth in job creation in January, the second poor jobs report in a row. Only 113,000 jobs were added last month according to the BLS, but the labor force rebounded a bit as well:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.) ….

After accounting for the annual adjustment to the population controls, the civilian labor force rose by 499,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.0 percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 616,000 over the month, and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 58.8 percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population
adjustments, see table C.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 514,000 to 7.3 million in January. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)

The BLS applied its annual revisions to benchmarks, which in the end didn’t change too much of its analyses over the past year. The impact to the December-January calculations was almost nil, for instance.

There are a couple of bright spots. The U-6 measure of overall unemployment dropped to 12.7% even with the increase in the labor force, its lowest reading since December 2008 near the apex of the job-loss meltdown in the Great Recession. The number of people employed in the Establishment survey hit its highest level since June 2008, and in the private-sector since March 2008. The workforce participation rate bounced back a little, but not much; 63.0% is still tied for the fifth-lowest month since the 1970s.

Still, we need to add 150,000 jobs a month to keep pace with population growth. We’re closer to it than in December, which was upgraded to 75,000 jobs added, but still far off the pace for even stagnation.

U.S. employers hired far fewer workers than expected in January and job gains for the prior month were barely revised up, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy, even as the unemployment rate hit a new five-year low of 6.6 percent.

Nonfarm payrolls rose only 113,000, the Labor Department said on Friday. But with strong job gains in construction, cold weather probably was not a major factor in January.

The second straight month of weak hiring – marked by declines in retail, utilities, government, and education and health employment – could be a problem for the Federal Reserve, which is tapering its monthly bond-purchasing stimulus program.

Hiring was surprisingly weak in January for the second straight month, likely renewing concern that the U.S. economy might be slowing after a strong finish last year.

The Labor Department says employers added 113,000 jobs, less than the average monthly gain of 194,000 in 2013. This follows December’s tepid increase of just 75,000. Job gains have averaged only 154,000 the past three months, down from 201,000 in the preceding three months. …

The anxiety marks a reversal from a few weeks ago, when most analysts were increasingly hopeful about the global economy. U.S. growth came in at a sturdy 3.7 percent annual pace in the second half of last year. The Dow Jones industrial average finished 2013 at a record high. Europe’s economy was slowly emerging from a long recession. Japan was finally perking up after two decades of stagnation.

But then came December’s weak jobs total. And on Monday, an industry survey found that manufacturing grew much more slowly in January than in December. A measure of new orders in the report sank to the lowest level in a year. That report contributed to a dizzying 326-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average.

Also this week, automakers said sales slipped 3 percent in January. And last week, a measure of signed contracts to buy homes fell sharply, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Basically, we’re going through cyclic stagnation. We get small boosts in job expansion, which economists keep treating as solid portents for explosive growth, only to see corrections to the downside shortly afterward. The average effect is still stagnation, and as long as we’re disincentivizing investment and labor, that’s what we will keep seeing.

Let’s take a look at that “rebound”, using unseasoned numbers from last January and this January:

Civilian noninstitutional population – +2,252,000

Labor force – -413,000 (yes, that’s right, 413,000 fewer people were participating in January 2014 than in January 2013)

Employed – +1,912,000 (that’s right, the population increased more than the number of employed)

Officially unemployed – -2,326,000

What of those who were working? Production and non-supervisory employees had their workweek shrink by 0.1 hour from last year to 33.5 hours (the same as December). Their weekly pay increased by $12.75 over the course of the year to $683.07, a not-quite-inflation-matching 1.9% increase.

The supervisors took up the slack because the average workweek of all non-farm employees remained unchanged from both January 2013 and December 2013 at 34.4 hours. Overall weekly pay increased by $15.82 to $832.82, also a 1.9% increase (through the magic of rounding; it is higher than the production/non-supervisory increase).

Update: Steve had two typos in his bullets that called out the wrong years, which I have fixed.

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Comments

You are so right. Look at what happened when Katrina hit. These people see a wall of water coming at them and they still believed the government would save them. Amazing…..how do you go about fixing thinking or stupidity like that?

I got laid off last month when the company I was working for closed down due to terrible mis-management. But I couldn’t be happier! I have at least 52 weeks of unemployment to collect, PLUS I found out I qualify for Medicaid so no worries on my healthcare.

I’m gonna cruise on this right through the summer!

Must be terrible for all you SUCKERS still waking up at 6am to start work!

In our political culture, for some reason (capitalism), dependence on government is considered sinful while dependence on an employer is virtuous.

libfreeordie on February 7, 2014 at 10:35 AM

I’m not depending on my employer any more than they are depending on me. Its a simple, uncoerced contract between two parties. The employer is purchasing my labor commodity for an agreed-upon price. If the conditions of that contract are changed by either party, then the other has the right to terminate that contract.

Why is this so difficult for leftists to understand? Employment is nothing more than a term that explains the status of a labor commodity transaction.

With the HFT brigade selling then buying, and trying to goalseek an explanation of why this happened after the fact, one key aspect of today’s release that was ignored is that the BLS just revised its Establishment Survey data, in the process changing all historical job numbers. To wit: “Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors. Also, household survey data for January 2014 reflect updated population estimates.” As a result of this revision, while the monthly changes were not that dramatic, what happened is that the “stock” level of jobs as reflected in the Establishment Survey rose by half a million as of December 31, from 136,877 to 137,386. And so all key historic data – from GDP in early 2013 to jobs – has now been revised to reflect a more rosy economy, and instill consumers with even more confidence in hopes they will spend, spend, spend.

Ignore reality, believe what ‘we’ tell you….and don’t question us. After all, who are you going to believe, us or your own lyin’ eyes?

As a newbie, this is parody about socialism and government dependence right?

cthemfly on February 7, 2014 at 1:08 PM

I have the same problem. It’s hard to tell what is parody. From what I’ve seen, Libie IS sometimes a communist of some sort. And a gay rights activist and maybe an advocate of lowering the age of consent. The liberal in his nom is deceptive. He’s further left then a liberal. I wish the marxists would stand up and be men. Conservatives are upfront about their ideology. Conservatives don’t hide anything(ideologically).

You would be correct, my good man. MM1(SW)non-nuclear, although I did attend sub school in 1986 and for a short time was MM3(SU). Then the wizards of Navy Medicine said I couldn’t play anymore as once upon a time I had childhood asthma.

USNCVN on February 7, 2014 at 12:07 PM

Ah, were you also nuke waste? For the benefit of everybody else in this instance “nuke waste” refers to a nuke school washout. As the Corpsman, I got along well with our A Gangers.

Spent a lot of time in AMR getting schooling on ship’s quals by the forward MMs. Great guys. I envied them, they learned a whole of useful skills, more so than the nukes. The nuke MMs just got to do power plant (for the most part). Forward MMs were also the ship’s HTs, diesel mechanics, CAMS repairmen, etc….

5+ decades of educational indoctrination, media propaganda, and cultural decadence has rotted the electorate, which is the foundation of a representative republic.

Art Vandelay on February 7, 2014 at 1:27 PM

I understand what you mean. I grew up in NYC and it is amazing how people here think. Sometimes it is like talking to a wall where everything you say bounces back at you. But we were able to see throught their liberal B.S., and I can only hope there will be enough of us that do. I can only hope and pray for our country.

I’m not depending on my employer any more than they are depending on me. Its a simple, uncoerced contract between two parties. The employer is purchasing my labor commodity for an agreed-upon price. If the conditions of that contract are changed by either party, then the other has the right to terminate that contract.

Why is this so difficult for leftists to understand? Employment is nothing more than a term that explains the status of a labor commodity transaction.

Nothing more.

Defenestratus on February 7, 2014 at 1:16 PM

You shouldn’t have used such big words. That all likely went right over that Harvard law student’s head.

got laid off last month when the company I was working for closed down due to terrible mis-management. But I couldn’t be happier! I have at least 52 weeks of unemployment to collect, PLUS I found out I qualify for Medicaid so no worries on my healthcare.

I’m gonna cruise on this right through the summer!

Must be terrible for all you SUCKERS still waking up at 6am to start work!

LeftoCenter on February 7, 2014 at 12:04 PM

And there you have it ladies and gentleman the best example on why socialism will never work. There is no reason to work. Once socialists run out of other people’s money the system fails. As long as the person doesn’t need to work, can eat with other’s help, can live with other’s help, can continue to function with no massive change in social standing or lifestyle then sooner or later the rest of society catches on and no one works. Then the socialist regime has to resort to threats/force to get people to work, send the nonworkers to gulags or re-education camps but still those that now work have no reason to work, they can’t better themselves so productivtivity falls, shortages occur. The central planners can’t see into the future far enough to order what to produce how much etc. the entire system fails.

I got laid off last month when the company I was working for closed down due to terrible mis-management. But I couldn’t be happier! I have at least 52 weeks of unemployment to collect, PLUS I found out I qualify for Medicaid so no worries on my healthcare.

I’m gonna cruise on this right through the summer!

Must be terrible for all you SUCKERS still waking up at 6am to start work!

Wow, when the left gets their orders, they really march in lockstep don’t they? No dissension allowed. Is there not one honest leftist out there saying, “Come on guys, this argument is BS, and you would rightfully call it BS if it came out of the mouths of a Republican administration, and you know it.” Where is that guy?

And really, “conservatives can’t really give you a reason why”? Hey, don’t blame your lack of reading or listening comprehension on us. Any conservative here could explain it to you (and some already have). But should they really even have to? It’s not that hard to understand. I rarely need a leftist to explain their positions to me. I get it. I can usually make leftist arguments better than they can.

Lol!!! Haven’t heard that term in years. But you are correct. Spent time in the plants, running them alongside the nukes (minus the nuke pay, of course) then finally got to transfer to A-gang. I now turn a wrench when I want to, can repair my own a/c, and fix stuff, which is much more enjoyable than having to do it every day for a living.

Now, I enjoy coming in to the office where I work and talking about repairing car a/c units or rebuiding engines. Totally freaks out my co-workers who have no understanding on how that sort of work can be done. I just tell them its PFM.

Now, I enjoy coming in to the office where I work and talking about repairing car a/c units or rebuiding engines. Totally freaks out my co-workers who have no understanding on how that sort of work can be done. I just tell them its PFM.

In our political culture, for some reason (capitalism), dependence on government is considered sinful while dependence on an employer is virtuous.

libfreeordie on February 7, 2014 at 10:35 AM

It has nothing to do with sinful or virtuous. It is all about how a person feels about their self worth. Why would you want the government to deceide the lifestyle you live as opposed to you developing your skills and knowledge and choosing your own lifestyle. Your argument doesn’t make any sense.

idiot the last time we had an entire segment of society dependent on the good will of the government we had to fight a civil war to get them released. You liberals never learn. must we go through this generation after generation. Socialism leads to slavary and poverty.

socialism fails when you kill the goose that lays the golden egg. It’s in all our childhood fables. It has been taught to us since we were little children. We have seen the horrors of socialism/communism/slavary with our own eyes. As soon as people don’t have a reason to work they stop working. This isn’t rocket science. Just because you liberals want to have others support your lazy as@ is not enough of a reason to sentence my children and grandchildren into slavary to the state.

got laid off last month when the company I was working for closed down due to terrible mis-management. But I couldn’t be happier! I have at least 52 weeks of unemployment to collect, PLUS I found out I qualify for Medicaid so no worries on my healthcare.

I’m gonna cruise on this right through the summer!

Must be terrible for all you SUCKERS still waking up at 6am to start work!

LeftoCenter on February 7, 2014 at 12:04 PM

If this is NOT a sarc post – I’d say the fact that you ever got a paycheck from that company filly proves your statement that they suffered and died due to terrible mismanagement.

In our political culture, for some reason (capitalism), dependence on government is considered sinful while dependence on an employer is virtuous.

libfreeordie on February 7, 2014 at 10:35 AM

Because it is.
But the problem with your statement is that most of us have never been “dependent on an employer”. By that description, I was “dependent” on the US government (as my employer) during my time in the military.
But since getting out of the Air Force (in 1987), I’ve worked for 10 different companies, and I was never “dependent” on any of them. Every job I took was my choice, and if I determined I didn’t like the company, the work, the management, or had a better opportunity with another company, I moved on.
OTOH – if you are dependent on the gubmint to live – you have no choice – except to go get a job.

The stock market only shows that there is money out there seeking returns – the bond market is usually over four times the size of the equities markets, but the near-zero interest on bonds has killed their returns. The money is flowing into stocks and emerging markets.

Domestic private capital investment remains at a seven-year low. Regulations and bad policy like obamacare keep real investment down. And there is NOT going to be robust growth without it. EVER.

In our political culture, for some reason (capitalism), dependence on government is considered sinful while dependence on an employer is virtuous.
libfreeordie on February 7, 2014 at 10:35 AM
I’m not depending on my employer any more than they are depending on me. Its a simple, uncoerced contract between two parties. The employer is purchasing my labor commodity for an agreed-upon price. If the conditions of that contract are changed by either party, then the other has the right to terminate that contract.
Why is this so difficult for leftists to understand? Employment is nothing more than a term that explains the status of a labor commodity transaction.
Nothing more.
Defenestratus on February 7, 2014 at 1:16 PM

Agree so don’t look for a liberal angle in my post. On second thought……!!!! As an employer of 49, yep not 50…..little off topic….do you know why the ACA did not have a look back provision to catch companies that reduced their size; say a year before ACA was signed into law? Most conservatives have not given that much thought and have little clue about the risk corridors and how that concept will creep into other large industries. Van Jones and Elizabeth Warren are behind the implementation of “risk corridors”. You did not build that was not a campaign slogan. Sorry about the diarrhea of the brain there!

Back on track. I don’t want to get into a discussion about fixed vs variable costs so let me use those terms loosely. I sell labour for a living and say I hire a Cisco/firewall engineer for a specific need to make ME money. I’m not in the business to manage risk just to hire folks. I’m in business to make ME money not to create jobs. If I have enough business to cover his cost plus a nice profit, I am somewhat happy. You can make a living doing that, but not build true wealth. I see the engineer’s cost (wages/benefits/overhead allocation) as a type of fixed cost. I know……I know…..folks like Del will make the exception the rule in this post to prove some silly point, but stay with me.

The trick is though efficiency, to create excess labour from that position and sell that labour to the market. Like air is a fluid to an airfoil, labour is also a product. In any type of business, turning efficient excess labour into profit is where true wealth is created. Remember, labour is a product for one of my business models. I do own a business that sells a product I designed, but the concept of efficiency works the same for both.

The past 11 years my main “product” has been selling companies automation to reduce work force.

Guess I am somewhat disliked by some on the right and left. Like the wise founding father schooled us, I ain’t baking bread for the good of the village. I realize you fully understand the above. Lets hope libby can get a clue.

The stock market only shows that there is money out there seeking returns – the bond market is usually over four times the size of the equities markets, but the near-zero interest on bonds has killed their returns. The money is flowing into stocks and emerging markets.

Domestic private capital investment remains at a seven-year low. Regulations and bad policy like obamacare keep real investment down. And there is NOT going to be robust growth without it. EVER.

Adjoran on February 7, 2014 at 10:04 PM

Meant to add that employment numbers can also be very misleading. But capital investment is people willing to bet their own money on growth. And they aren’t, not now.

Adjoran on February 7, 2014 at 10:05 PM

Very nice couple of posts!!

One of many things killing job growth is the lack of foreign capital flowing into the US. For us inside the US; taxes, regulation, high labour costs is just a fact of business life. Medium and small business (by that those with 500 or more employees) can’t really move out of the states. To outside investors, which love medium size companies, taxes and such reduce ROI and they are now in Latin America, South Africa for now, India, and China.

The average effect is still stagnation, and as long as we’re disincentivizing investment and labor, that’s what we will keep seeing.

but, but, but, Doobie McChoom, also known as Emperor Zero the Great and Powerful, prince of Unicorns and King Putt has decreed that companies should hire the unemployed, and PAY THEM and that we should all BUY STUFF with our unemployment money!

‘how do you go about fixing thinking or stupidity like that?’

I ask myself that question every day–and then despair.

5+ decades of educational indoctrination, media propaganda, and cultural decadence has rotted the electorate, which is the foundation of a representative republic.

Art Vandelay on February 7, 2014 at 1:27 PM

I asked my self that question for the longest time and then I found the answer.

We create media elements of every type with a conservative perspective and we do it BETTER than the socialists do it. Write a novel, play or poem. Make a painting, video or a bumpersticker.

The socialist-communist scum in this country pervades the media 24-7. But observe the dent Fox News made in their grip and how the socialists screech at them. FNC isn’t even staunch conservative.

Imagine if you will, how the socialists-communists would feel if a channel as conservative as MSLSD is socialist were available.

THAT’s WHAT YOU GOTTA Do. We ALL have to do our bit. No matter how small.