Personal Consumption

Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday.

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel and could lead to complicated coalition talks. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&P500 futures are steady.

In what may be one of Janet Yellen's last, and certainly her most difficult in recent history meetings, tomorrow the FOMC will not hike rates but will announce the start of its balance sheet normalization programme, while revising its economic projections and hinting whether the December meeting is "live" for one more 2017 rate hike. Here's what else to look forward to...

"Despite policymakers’ lack of regard for this burden, it is important to keep in mind that, as debt accumulates and consumers become less capable of repaying those debts, deleveraging ensues. This means that households will become unable to sustain the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed. Whether debts will be resolved through repayment or default, economic progress will falter."

The mirage of consumer wealth has been a function of surging debt levels. “Wealth” is not borrowed, but “saved,” and this is a lesson that too few individuals have learned. Until the deleveraging cycle is allowed to occur, and household balance sheets return to more sustainable levels,the attainment of stronger, and more importantly, self-sustaining economic growth could be far more elusive than currently imagined.

If there is one common theme across sellside previews of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls number, expected at 180K after a surprising jump to 209K in July, it is to brace for disappointment, or in Wall Street parlance, "downside risks."

"The US has never since the mid-1960s, when records began, seen core CPI (less food, energy and shelter) decline over a six-month period. Deflation did not need another US recession to emerge. It is already here."

“It is almost like we have ended up with a default risk-on, which is in part predicated by the very benign pricing for what central banks do next,” said head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe.

S&P futures are higher in early Wednesday trading, alongside Asian stocks and European bourses, both solidly in the green as the EURUSD drifts below the 1.20 "redline" while the dollar rebounds off a two and a half year low following the US "measured" response to North Korea’s missile test, which soothed jittery investors who now turn their focus to US economic data.

After last week's relatively quiet economic calendar and focus on Central Banks, attention this week turns back to data. In a relatively busy data week ahead - particularly for the US - focus will likely be on Friday's NFP, Q2 GDP revision on Wednesday, ISM manufacturing reports on Friday and inflation prints from the Eurozone.

The University of Michigan Sentiment survey beat expectations with its preliminary August print (97.6 vs 94.0 exp) driven by a massive spike in 'hope' as currenct conditions slump to their weakest since Nov 2016.

"While the Fed keeps promising with each passing year the economy will come roaring back to life, the reality has been that all the stimulus and financial support can’t put the broken financial transmission system back together again. Eventually, the current disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge. My bet is that such a convergence is not likely to be a pleasant one."