Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The Shrinking Half-Life of Never

"The future belongs to those who see possibilities before they become obvious."
- John Sculley, former CEO of Apple

There are many reasons why people fail to see the future, even when it is pounding down their front door. Some are too busy in the now to see the world changing around them; some see trends and mistake them for fads; and some are simply too invested in today's skills and business models to consider their evolution. No matter the etiology of the disease, the symptom is usually the same--bold and unassailable declarations such as "I will never..." and "Our customers will never..." If you hear these words, recognize them as the danger signs they are.

The threat of overlooking vital market trends is certainly not a new phenomenon. Just ask the powerful railroad companies of the early 20th Century, which failed to understand the changing needs and technology of society. Stuck in the mindset that they were in the rail business and not the transportation business, railroad companies watched as rail passenger travel declined 84 percent between 1945 and 1964. In the first half of the 20th Century, the Pennsylvania Railroad was the largest publicly traded corporation in the world, but by 1970 the merged Penn Central declared bankruptcy.

The forces that undid Pen Central 40 years ago are the same forces that torpedoed Borders in recent years. As recently as two years ago, Borders Group operated 511 superstores across the globe; late in 2011, the company liquidated its last store. Unwilling to see (or adapt) to the way media sales first went online and then went digital, the company struggled. It first turned to Amazon as its online store provider, but by the time Borders tried to establish its own online store in 2008, it was too late.

How do highly compensated executives--recognized and experienced experts in their field--miss profound change on this scale? You do not need deep insight into the railroad or book selling business to understand how this phenomenon works. If you are over 40, you've experienced it firsthand. Chances are you have repeatedly declared (either aloud or silently) "I will never..." only to prove yourself wrong time after time:

In 1994: I will never own a personal computer.

In 1997: I will never waste time on the information superhighway.

In 1999: I will never be tethered to a mobile phone every hour of my life.

In 2001: I will never submit my credit card number through a Web site.

In 2003: I will never need a smartphone--my email can wait until I get to my PC.

In 2007: I will never share my personal information on those crazy social networks.

Never isn't what it used to be. It took most of us no more than two to five years to move from "I will never..." to "I am doing it religiously..." for all of these behaviors.

Many of those who laughed at the nerds typing away on their Atari STs and Commodore Amigas are now on their third generation of personal computing, having transitioned from desktops to laptops to tablets and mobile. The people who declared they would never be stupid enough to trust their credit card number online are today storing their Visa numbers on Amazon and checking their investment accounts on their cell phones.

When we personally misjudge the future, the implications are relatively minor. The folks who mocked Treo and Blackberry addicts changed their minds, bought iPhones and Androids, and caught up to the early adopters. Conversely, the organizational implications of misjudging the future are far more serious. "I will never..." too easily becomes "Our customers will never..." which is expressed as "Our organization will never..." By the time "never" becomes "OMG!," it is too late to steal market share from more agile and established competitors; it is even more difficult for a fading brand to recover lost trust and convince consumers it is still relevant. Buy books at Borders? That is so 2007!

Today, what are you saying you will never do? How will your 2017 self prove your brash and ignorant 2012 self wrongheaded and shortsighted?

The cure for the disease of business myopia is quite simple: Never say never. Recognize that the half-life of "never" has never been shorter. The quicker we appreciate that "never" is not a very long time in today's environment, the sooner we can start leading our organizations to embrace the remarkable changes ahead.

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About Experience: The Blog

The world is changing rapidly, both for consumers and brands. Consumers are more empowered than ever before and traditional business models are under attack.

In an increasingly social, mobile and real-time world, brands are created not by the messages they broadcast but by the experiences they offer--ones that create empathy, build trust, earn loyalty, spur Word of Mouth, encourage collaboration, and provide ever greater value to customers in innovative ways. On this blog, we explore how brands are built and business improved via Customer Experience Management, purposeful corporate culture, social and mobile business strategy and collaborative economy models.

You are welcome to participate, criticize, praise, critique, expand, or correct the information and opinions found on this blog. Spam, off-topic, or crude comments will be deleted, but all others are welcome.

About the Author

I am Augie Ray, Research Director covering customer experience at Gartner. I conduct and publish research and advise Fortune 500 clients on the value, process, measurement and tools of customer experience. This includes topics such as Voice of the Customer (VoC), personas, customer journey maps, CX governance, and customer experiences metrics that are leading metrics of brand success.

Previously, I was Director of Global Voice of Customer Strategy for a Fortune 100 financial service company. My background includes more than 20 years of experience in digital, brand, customer experience and social media.

In the past, I led social business at USAA, a firm recognized for its innovative use of communities and social customer care within the financial service industry. I also consulted and published analysis as a Forrester analyst covering digital marketing and social media. In addition, I led a diverse $9 million agency team with specialties in digital development, digital experiential marketing and community strategy.

The future will bring a great deal of innovation that offers opportunities to organizations that are agile and willing to cannibalize their own business models (but it will severely challenge those organizations that cannot.)

The views expressed on this website/blog are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer.