PENPIX-Possible contenders for Argentina's Oct. election

BUENOS AIRES, April 27 Argentine President
Cristina Fernandez has a wide lead in the polls, but she is
keeping the country guessing as to whether she will seek
re-election in presidential elections six months away.

Candidacies are often announced at the last minute in
Argentina and Fernandez is widely expected to be the ruling
party's candidate in the Oct. 23 vote.

Under a new election law that sets primaries for August,
politicians have until June 25 to register their candidacies
but opposition contenders have already started campaigning and
staging somewhat chaotic early primaries. [ID:nN26210915]

Following are brief profiles of some of the most prominent
possible contenders:

CRISTINA FERNANDEZ

Fernandez's approval ratings shot up to about 50 percent
after the death late last year of her powerful husband and
predecessor as president, Nestor Kirchner, boosted by public
sympathy and nostalgia for the best years of his 2003-2007
government. Sizzling economic growth that clocked 9.2 percent
in 2010 and the opposition's disarray have also driven the
stunning recovery of her approval ratings from lows of 20
percent following a messy conflict with farmers in 2008. Some
polls suggest she would win in a first round if the election
were held now, but six months is plenty of time for things to
change in the stormy world of Argentine politics. Fernandez has
broadly maintained her unorthodox economic policy course since
the death of Kirchner, who was widely seen as her de facto
economy minister. That is unlikely to change in the run-up to
the vote, but she could be forced to tackle double-digit
inflation if re-elected. So far, union leader Hugo Moyano and
other prominent Peronist party leaders such as moderate Buenos
Aires Governor Daniel Scioli have backed Fernandez. In the
unlikely case that Fernandez decides not to run, the well-known
and popular Scioli would likely be the ruling party candidate.

RICARDO ALFONSIN

Alfonsin, a congressman, rose to prominence following the
death two years ago of his famous father, former president Raul
Alfonsin, who led Argentina between 1983 and 1989. He trails
Fernandez a distant second in most opinion polls. Alfonsin has
emerged as the strongest candidate in the fragmented social
democratic Radical party (UCR). In the absence of a clear,
strong challenger to Fernandez, Alfonsin is the focus of
efforts to forge a broad opposition alliance. He is already
allied with several smaller leftist parties, but he has ruled
out making pacts with right-leaning politicians such as Buenos
Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri. A deal with former President
Eduardo Duhalde, a member of the dissident Peronist party wing,
might be more acceptable to Alfonsin. Alfonsin has criticized
the government over double-digit inflation and persistent
income inequality. He vows to make government more transparent
and accountable. Working against him is the Radical party's
poor governing record -- the last Radical president to finish
his term was Marcelo Torcuato de Alvear in 1928.
[ID:nN31249869]

Alfonsin will benefit from the decision of rebel Vice
President Julio Cobos to drop out of the race. Another Radical
party rival, Sen. Ernesto Sanz, also appears to be wavering.

MAURICIO MACRI

A millionaire who used to run one of Argentina's largest
soccer clubs, center-right Macri favors more market-friendly
policies than the current government. Although he was seen as
the biggest threat to the government's bid for another term,
Macri has failed to make significant headway beyond the capital
and trails Fernandez in a distant second or third place in most
opinion polls. Macri, who favors free-market economic policies
and a private role in public services, has led calls for a
broad opposition alliance, hinting he would be willing to give
up his presidential ambitions. His PRO party is struggling to
find a successor to him to run in the capital's mayoral
elections on July 10, risking defeat by a pro-government
candidate. He says he is committed to the presidential race,
but many commentators say he could seek re-election as mayor if
his allies are seen losing control of city hall. Macri's party
has little presence outside the capital and he would have to
forge alliances with dissident Peronists or other smaller
parties to gain momentum outside Buenos Aires. [ID:nN01124854]

EDUARDO DUHALDE

Duhalde, who governed briefly as Argentina emerged from an
acute 2001-02 economic crisis, was once a backer of Kirchner,
but they fell out and he now leads a breakaway Peronist faction
that has crumbled amid infighting over the presidential
candidacy. Duhalde is a centrist and an influential figure in
Peronism because of his links with powerful mayors in the
working-class suburbs of Buenos Aires. He has said his
government would boost investment in industry and that former
Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, the architect of Argentina's
2005 debt restructuring, would play a key role. Duhalde started
contesting an early primary election in the dissident wing with
San Luis Governor Alberto Rodriguez Saa, but the process
collapsed, casting further doubt on who will run. Another
dissident Peronist who could stand is former government ally
Congressman Felipe Sola. Working against Duhalde is his high
rejection rating -- 49.6 percent in a March Management & Fit
poll -- meaning he might find it hard to steal many Peronist
votes from Fernandez or convince Alfonsin's supporters of the
merits of an electoral alliance.

ELISA CARRIO

Anti-corruption crusader Carrio came in second in the 2007
presidential election behind Fernandez, but she has lost ground
since then, hurt by a series of rows with political allies and
public impatience with her apocalyptic warnings of impending
doom. A lawyer who hails from the poor northern province of
Chaco, congresswoman Carrio is a sharp-tongued critic of the
government and has recently taken aim at union leader Moyano.
She is accompanied by former Central Bank governor Alfonso Prat
Gay. A pact with her estranged Radical party allies would make
sense from an ideological perspective, but past rows could
hamper deal-making. According to consultants Management & Fit,
she has the second-highest rejection rating among leading
politicians after Duhalde.

ALBERTO RODRIGUEZ SAA

Maverick provincial governor Rodriguez Saa, a member of the
dissident Peronist wing, has dominated politics in his home
province of San Luis with his brother for years. Adolfo
Rodriguez Saa served as president for a week during Argentina's
2001-02 economic and political meltdown and declared a roughly
$100 billion sovereign debt default. Polls show Alberto as an
outsider, but he could attract conservative Peronist votes,
especially if Duhalde ends up forging an alliance with other
groups. Rodriguez Saa, an art-lover and green crusader,
advocates a tough line on crime and says he would work to bring
down inflation, restore credibility to the INDEC statistics
institute and limit state intervention in the economy,
especially farming.
(Writing by Helen Popper, editing by Anthony Boadle)

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