Chat: George Bissell

George Bissell: Hey everyone! I'm feeling fresh as lettuce this evening, thanks for asking. I'll start out by asking you which position(s) you would rank Chris Davis? We're going to start up in about 10 minutes, so get your questions in now!

Rudy H (Canada): I get to keep 8, last spot Thor or Sano (in a vaccum)

George Bissell: Sano...Always go with the hitter over the pitcher (with a few exceptions) in a dynasty...Hitters are simply safer long-term investments...Look at Strasburg vs. Harper...Who would you rather have? Both were arguably once in a generation prospects coming up. I think Syndergaard is incredible but it's always risky to bet on an arm over an elite bat with immediate 40+ home run potential like Sano.

Lover of Arms (The Rubber): Projection for Drew Smyly this year if he throws 175 innings?

George Bissell: Considering that he's eclipsed 150 innings just once since 2012, 175 is an aggressive number, but I wouldn't rule it out. There's a ton to like with Smyly if you can overlook the legitimate durability concerns. 175 IP = 3.30 ERA (3.84 DRA) 195 K (10 K/9) 1.17 WHIP (SP30-35 range)

George Bissell: This may surprise some, but I like really like Eickhoff maybe more than McCullers. You might not know this, but according to BP's PITCHf/x leaderboards, Eickhoff's slider generated more whiffs-per-swing (55%) than any other starter who threw at least 100 sliders last season. Join the #ILikeEickhoff movement today!

I wrote a little about McCullers during out category breakdown series...The strikeouts (9.1 K/9) establish a nice floor to start out with, but my big concern is whether or not he can survive as a starter relying almost exclusively on two pitches (fastball and curveball). The primary and secondary components of his arsenal are exquisite, but I think if his changeup continues to develop, he's going to be special...For some reason the Dodgers don't like Bolsinger nearly as much as I do...Sadly...

George Bissell: This is a TDGX question, I know it. Yes, I traded Correa in TDGX this offseason. I'm excited to see what a full season of Correa looks like. I wrote about him here at BP late in the season. Basically he was on pace for a $40 season (if you pro-rate his stats over a full year) after being called up last year. He good.

Isaac (Akron): Has gilbert lara lost any of gis shine, or is he still viewed as an elite offensive prospect?

George Bissell: The ceiling of a guy who could hit 30+ HR and rank among the top-10 fantasy 3B remains intact, but that swing...is a bit...Well...take a look for yourself courtesy of my colleague Craig Goldstein, who shot this video last spring: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxDjvpxEVZI

Ken (Cleveland): If Jameson Taillon proves to be healthy, what kind of ceiling do you see with him. Same for Max Fried, knowing its a hard spot to judge players that havent pitched in 2 years

George Bissell: Hard to find a riskier pitching prospect than Fried, who's coming back from Tommy John. While he still possesses the ceiling of a number two starter, the odds of him realizing that potential are significantly diminished from where they were pre-surgery. Assuming the velocity returns, he's got the arsenal to succeed, but his command (his BB/9 numbers have always been high) still needs work. He's only 22, but he's missed a ton of developmental time, which is a huge concern to me. As far as Taillon, I'm always the lowest one in the room on him...His six starts at Triple-A were just mediocre to me last year.

ED (C-falls): Any news on Max pentecost? Is he a top tier catching prospect?

George Bissell: Have to wait and see how he comes back from surgery before we can really tell...

Isaac (Akron): Can you give us a couple prospects that you could see their stock blowing up this year? Robles and Espinoza aside

George Bissell: Victor Robles blew up last year and he's my dude...Assuming you're looking for lower-level prospects with upside, not MLB-ready types, my favorites would have to be Francis Martes (Astros) and Brent Honeywell (Rays). Honeywell throws the screwball and so far nobody has been able to touch it. I also like Austin Riley (Braves). He's going to shoot up lists. If you're looking for the one big name prospect that I'm high on it's Nomar Mazara...I'm all in...

Ken (Cleveland): Is edmundo sosa somebody to get excited about? Is he a potential pop up prospect heading into this season. Thanks

Fred (Outside): Can Dilsson Hererra be an all-star 2b? His minor league numbers are very impressive. Why do you think the mets are hesitant to give him a shot? Just a case of needing a little more seasoning?

George Bissell: All-Star? Maybe...The bat has been pretty un-inspiring (.257 TAv) when he's gotten chances the past two years at the major-league level. Still, he's crazy young, makes a ton of contact and the departure of Daniel Murphy in theory opens the door to everyday playing time...This year is going to tell us a lot.

George Bissell: Yes, but the size and health (back injuries man...) could stand in the way. Still, love the talent, even if he's a long ways away.

Katie (Natti): Any chance michael lorenzen gets a shot at the closers job?

George Bissell: Nope. Out of 141 starters who threw 100 innings last season, Lorenz ranked dead-last in DRA (6.42). A move to the pen seems inevitable, especially given the pitching prospects the Reds added in the second half of last year. At least for the immediate future, J.J. Hoover and Jumbo Diaz will get the first shot to close.

Fred (Outside): What typeif offensive player do you see lucious fox being? Is he being underrated at the time?

George Bissell: Still very early, but he was ranked second in our SF Giants Top 10 list. Underrated? Sure...but he's so far away it's hard to tell what he's going to look like in a few years right now.

ED (C-falls): Anthony Alford is getting a lot of hype. What kind of stat line could we see if everything clicks?

George Bissell: Alford deserves the hype, he's an unbelievable athlete and a former standout football player in Mississippi. My BP colleague Greg Wellemeyer was all over him last spring, so props Greg! A best-case scenario would be a guy who has the speed to swipe 30-40 bases at the big league-level. His speed is going to be his biggest fantasy contribution, but he's got the ability to provide a little pop and hit for a decent average too. If he becomes A.J. Pollock that's the ultimate best-case...

Brett (VANCOUVER): No one seems to be talking about Eloy Jimenez in Chicago. Could he leap into the spotlight as the next great cubs prospect. He years away but seams to.have the tools from the outside

George Bissell: He's a jump to light-speed away from the Majors, but I can see the potential there. Yes, get excited! Why not. The future is so bright in Chicago.

ASK (Jeeves): Does Michael Kopech have a shot at adding even more velocity? Can he ne a TOR type? He seems like he has all the physical tools, I'm surprised he hasnt received more attention, suspension aside

George Bissell: He throws like a billion already tho...The rise of Espinoza has a lot to do with why you don't hear more about him. A bit overshadowed at the moment.

George Bissell: Hey John! Pollock first by a country mile. I'd put Conforto ahead of Duffy in a dynasty league, but it's close. I love Iglesias, but you have to invest in hitters. If it's a re-draft, I might think about Iglesias second on this list.

Billy B (Oakland): Is Franklin Barreto a top 10 prospect by midseason? Or is that above his ceiling?

George Bissell: Hey there Billy. That DePodesta thing in Cleveland is crazy right??? Um...Barreto is getting close to that already given the glut of elite prospects that reached the Majors last season. He's not near the level of someone like J.P. Crawford tho. I'd put him, Rodgers, Turner, Swanson, Anderson and Arcia ahead of him at the position just off the top of my head. Gleyber Torres is in the mix there too.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Yorman Rodriguez or Jabari Blash, which one of these guys is going to take my team to another level, and what is that ?

George Bissell: RotoLando my man, what's up? Give me Blash...He's got some power. Not an ideal landing spot in San Diego, but there will probably be plenty of at-bats there for him given the rest of that roster.

Al (New York, New York): How much credit do we give a guy like Miguel Andujar for putting up league average numbers in hi-A, but at a young age?

George Bissell: I don't know much about Andujar, but one of our prospect team writers told me "he has good raw power, but enough trouble making it functional that he's not really relevant outside of 20-team leagues right now." So...yep...

Bob (Cincy): After reading Reds prospect list today, seem to have a very solid/upper echelon farm system. Thoughts on the start of their rebuild and future contention? Appreciate the time with these chats

George Bissell: I really like the return they got on Cueto. I don't feel the same way about what they did with the Frazier and Chapman deals. I thought they sold at the lowest possible value on both. Would have netted much more last summer at the trade deadline. I really like Raisel Iglesias, Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, etc... and I think with Stephenson and Reed on the way, they should have the pieces necessary for a solid rotation. I want to see a step forward from Billy Hamilton this year, that would be huge.

Dan (Bath): Sell on kyle hendricks or could.he be even better?

George Bissell: He was excellent late last season, I'm buying him. Check out some of the stuff Rian Watt wrote over at BP Wrigleyville on him from the end of the regular season. It will make you a believer.

Joe (Ohio): Thoughts on Eugenio Suarez move to third base? What kind of production do you see with his future value ? Thanks !

George Bissell: Not interested. Sorry. So many better options.

JT Smooth (Loveboat Cap'n): What do you think about Tyler Beede? Is it tougher for him to crack the rotation now with so many pieces already set in place for the Giants?

George Bissell: Vanderbilt guy...Go Dores...Um...Where were we? Beede...The raw stuff arsenal-wise is there for him to be an impact fantasy starter, no doubt. Given the Giants track record, I'm going to trust them. Seeing his control improve late last year at Double-A was encouraging. Still, he's a risky investment.

Jake (State Farm): Where do you stand on Colin Moran? Think Houston gives him a shot at 3B or might his future position/team be elsewhere?

George Bissell: What are you wearing, Jake from State Farm? No...He's a good hitter. Solid in the Texas League...I just don't think he's getting a chance in Houston in 2016...The upside is just really not there. Unfortunately.

asarule (Lakewood CA): How do you rate 1B prospects Mancini and Tellez as future major league players?

George Bissell: In the words of my colleague Ben Carsley, "well-behaved Tellez rarely make history." 14 home runs with an on-base percentage right around .350 between Single-A and High-A last year at just 20-years-old...I'm a believer...He's going to be good and the time to buy in is right now...As far as Mancini...I'm not really interested outside of a really deep mixed league (20-teams or so)...

Ernie (Aspen): Assuming J. Reyes is suspended would Adames, Story or Descalso get first shot ? Would Desmond be an option ?

George Bissell: I don't think the Rockies would have the $ to sign Desmond. I don't know how this is going to play out, but I want no part of any of it...No thank you...

Ernie (Michigan): Hypothetically, had Michael Conforto not reached rookie status in 2015, where could we expect to see him on top 100 prospect lists?

George Bissell: Top 20-25 range...He was inside the top-100 coming into last year...

Fred (Cleveland): What kind of impact can sean manaea have in oakland. Can he be a legit #2 with high K numbers, evenif he takes awhile with his command?

George Bissell: I saw Manaea for the first time when he was in college at Indiana State, pitching in the Cape Cod League back in 2012. That summer he went 5-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. He was unreal. Problem is that he's already 24 and has been hurt a lot in recent years. However, he was impressive in the AFL and he could be really good in that park out in Oakland. He's probably a mid-rotation starter. This has nothing to do with your question, but he's also rocking some sweet hair right now too: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/687122108468572160

asarule (Lakewood CA): I'm a believer in Yelich as being a successful MLB OF. But how optimistic should I be about him developing any real power?

George Bissell: This is a great question...I'm a huge Yelich fan. Even if he doesn't hit double-digit home runs, he's still going to put up a .300 average with enough steals to be a very valuable fantasy asset. While I'm not ruling out a power spike entirely, let's be realistic. Not to go all Bill Belichick on everyone, but at some point, "you are who you are." In 1,458 career plate appearances, Yelich owns a 62% ground-ball rate...Last year his fly ball rate was 15%, which was the lowest of any hitter who qualified for a batting title. Unless he dramatically overhauls his batted ball profile and starts hitting more fly balls, I don't see where the power is coming from. He is what he is: an excellent hitter. Just not a guy who is going to hit 20 HR ever in a single season.

Jon Smith (Ottawa): Expectations for Aaron Blair this year? Brinson and/or Kepler make it to the majors this year? Lines for them?

George Bissell: Not very high. He's the classic mid-rotation starting pitching prospect that I personally try to avoid in dynasty formats. Lewis Brinson is someone who took a huge step forward last year and could get a look in Texas later this season, especially after they traded away Nick Williams.

Jerry (Earth): George. Some pitchers was hoping to get some thoughts on as well as how would you rank these three. Cody Reed, Michael Kopech, and Michael Gonsalves?

George Bissell: Cody Reed and it's not even close. Go look at his numbers after he was traded to the Reds. They're stellar.

Mansisco Frejia (Cleveland): Think Francisco Mejia begins to ascend prospect ranks this year? Catching prospects are kind of comical(TINSTAACP) and horribly bad to invest in but all I've ever heard out of BP is how great this kid is going to be. That was 3 years ago......

George Bissell: Well, he hasn't hit. There's a lengthy discussion about Mejia on the latest edition of TINO, which is going to be out in the next 24 hours or so...Check that out...

Chris (Washington DC): Who do you prefer in a dynasty league: Victor Robles or Anderson Espinoza? Could either of them be top 10 prospects a year from now?

George Bissell: ROBLES...He's already a top-20 prospect.

Fruits (VanNuys): 10 k/9 for Smyly! LOVE that prediction. Only 5 pitchers did that last year.

George Bissell: He was 10.4 K/9 last season...Even if you want to bake in a little regression to his career mean, he's still going to be around a strikeout per inning. Legit.

sgcashmere (Los Angeles): So for real... What are your thoughts on Christian Yelich?

George Bissell: I like Yelich, he's a phenomenal hitter, but he's just not going to hit a lot of home runs unless something drastic changes with his batted ball profile.

Chris (Baltimore): I asked this same question of Crawford and wanted to see if I get the same response from another writer:
In a 14 team 5 x 5 Mixed for the next 3 years, would you rather have Donaldson for 25,28,31 or C. Seager 7,10,13 & Yelich 11,14,17?
Thanks in advance.

George Bissell: In a 14-team league, that price on Donaldson is not bad. I would rather bank the sure thing (production-wise) than put all my eggs in the Seager basket. I go Donaldson all day.

George Bissell: Yikes. The strange thing about Pederson is that he didn't run at all really last year. I'm not putting those two in the same category, it's way too early to write off Pederson.

Kevin (Arlington, VA): What are your thoughts on Raul Mondesi? His stock seems to be pretty low right now. I realize he hasn't lived up to expectations offensively, but the tools are still there, right? Would you take his upside over someone like Gleyber Torres?

George Bissell: Nope.

misterbob (pa): The Phils have the first pick in the draft and knowing what you know about their roster, who would you choose and why? Seems to me that Groome, Puk and Hanson are at the top but maybe you have another thought----maybe a much needed power hitter?

George Bissell: This is a better question for Chris Crawford, but I always want the hitter. Pitching is risky and just not appealing to me.

DavidMGibson (BC Manatee Country): So the Marlins are bringing in the walls. Should we love Justin Bour a little more? There's no hype for that dude. And how about Ozuna? If he stays in Miami, wouldn't that bump his value up, too?

George Bissell: No on Bour...Yes on Ozuna...I've written about him a ton. He's a good hitter, with a ton of power. Erase last season from your memory, if possible. I'm confident he rebounds in 2016: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27470

asarule (Lakewood CA): I'm seeing Velasquez listed as the early favorite for the #5 spot in the Phillies starting rotation. What's your take on him now and in the future?

George Bissell: Look at the Phillies depth chart right now...I don't think there's any way he wins a starting job out of spring training. The talent is there, but pitching is so deep is the problem. He should be owned in keeper and dynasty formats, but that's about it. I'm intrigued in a deep league, I'll put it that way.

James (FL): Hey George, would you expect AJ Ramos to start the year as the fins' closer? If so, how confident are you that he'll lose the job to one of your guys Capps or Barraclough?

George Bissell: I LOVE CARTER CAPPS...However, A.J. Ramos is excellent. He's going to be the Marlins closer and keep the job for the entire season, I feel pretty confident in that. Let's make something clear on Capps. There are HUGE Godzilla-sized injury concerns there. If he doesn't run into elbow problems (HUGE IF) he could put up video game-like strikeout totals if he can somehow get to 60 innings. There isn't anybody more fun to speculate on than Capps...Except for Arquimedes Caminero...

Sean (LA): Any estimate of Francis Martes ranking? I'm 100% on board with the hype!

George Bissell: He and David Paulino are the two names to watch in Houston...I'm not sure where he will end up on the consensus BP ranks or Bret's fantasy rankings, but I think he's a top-10-15 pitching prospect in the minors right now.

asarule (Lakewood CA): Do you see SP Jungmann progressing or regressing for the Brewers in 2016?

George Bissell: Top 40 starter by DRA (3.84) last year. His curveball generated an insane whiff rate by the way. I'll but in on him as a top-75 fantasy starter, but he's a nice back-end of a rotation starter in deeper mixed leagues. I don't think he's taking a huge step forward if that's what you're asking.

jervin (DFW, TX): Starting a new 5 keeper league 7x7 categories with TB/OBP and QS/K/9 the extra categories. I was looking for draft strategy in regards to RP. My thought is be patient, wait, and be one of the last ones to draft RP. BUT, with K/9 being a category...does that change your strategy in trying to get a RP? I do not want to lose out on position players to draft a RP early. And if your thought is to wait, who are some RP you'd look to target late? Thanks for the help!

George Bissell: If you're looking for sleeper relievers, go read my holds landscape column from about a month ago...So many good ones in there, I'm not kidding. I've found closers to be extremely undervalued in non-expert dynasty leagues, so I would go closer-heavy if the value is there on draft day. I wouldn't reach, but even if you fall out of contention, closers have trade value to contenders, so they're solid assets to own.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Man, one of your readers is a slimy, double-crossing, no good swindler, who's got a lot of guts stealing Jabari Blash off waivers while I was refreshing questions. So I guess it's Yorman Rodriguez or...Mark Canha? Ravel Rangelo? Michael Reed!?!

George Bissell: Oh man...Canha...I drafted him along with a buddy in a scoresheet league with 80-man rosters last year...He's ok in a deeper league like I'm guessing this is.

Chris (Baltimore ): Is Raimel Tapia a top 25 fantasy prospect? He had a good season statistically but prospect guys don't seem to be talking about him as much as they were at this point last year. What's up with that?

George Bissell: No. I really like Tapia, but the approach as currently constituted is not going to work against major-league pitchers. He may possess an incredible ability to make contact, but he needs to be more selective if his profile is going to work in the big leagues. He's one of the most polarizing prospects in the game, but the longer you see him not change his approach at the plate, the harder it is to be optimistic.

asarule (Lakewood CA): Is Iglesias going to be the Opening Day SP for the Reds? Thinking he has potential, but don't see him as a #1 SP. Also pitching for what will no doubt be a bad team, plus pitching in a very hitters ballpark. The outlook for him appears kind of grim for now, don't you agree?

George Bissell: I'm really high on Raisel Iglesias. I wrote about him a bunch late last season here at BP. Over his final 11 starts, he posted a 3.39 ERA (0.98 WHIP) while striking out 77 (10.45 K/9) and issuing just 19 walks (2.58 BB/9). He's a dark horse candidate to finish as a top-30 fantasy starter this season if the innings are there.

Matt (Virginia (AKA Snowpocalypse Central)): Hey George, what do you think about a swap of Bregman, JD Davis, and Derek Fisher for Ender Inciarte and Arodys Vizcaino? Seems to me to be mutually beneficial to each team. Thanks!

George Bissell: It depends what you think of Bregman. I would probably keep him unless I were desperate for stolen bases or an immediate upgrade at an OF spot.

Jeremy (Boston ): Could the Red Sox have 3 of the top 10 prospects by the end of the season (Moncada, Devers, Espinoza)? Thanks.

George Bissell: No because there's no chance Espinoza cracks the top 10 (at least not yet). The hype is warranted with Devers and Moncada tho, absolutely.

holmesp2001 (St Louis): It's been so long since he was healthy, but what did Jurickson Profar project to be when he was a top prospect a few years back? .290/.350/.440 more/less?

George Bissell: I don't want to think about it. Crazy thing is, he's still only going to be 23 this year. He looked incredible in the AFL. The big-time rebound is coming. He will be up before long in 2016.

Vladimir (Russia): From Russia with a question regarding prospects George. Was curious if you had any low minor prospects that maybe aren’t making many Top 10 lists or Top 100 that you are paying close attention to this upcoming season? Any personal favorites of yours you’re looking to say when it’s this time next year “told you to watch out for this player in 2016”?

George Bissell: I really do have an affinity for Victor Robles. He's unreal. Alex Verdugo is another guy I like. Both outfielders.

holmesp2001 (St Louis): Can Hector Olivera be a .280 20 HR hitter this year? He had a rough 2015, hadn't played in 2 years, adjustment from Cuba, raked initially for AAA/AA Dodgers, but then got hurt and completely fell off the map after being traded to Atlanta. Who is this guy?

George Bissell: Good question. I have no idea anymore and I'm dying to find out. I'd be worried about the average, but I think 15-20 HR in a full season isn't out of the question.

George Bissell: Love the speed with Smith. I would be buying in on him now.

Ennio Morricowbell (Spain): Thanks for the chat, George! Last year Harrison Bader had 9 HR's and 15 steals in just 54 Midwest League games (straight out of the draft, no less). Is it nuts to see him as a plausible 20 HR, 30 SB guy in center field? I've seen him play three times for Peoria, and he looks *really* good in the outfield. Thanks again!

George Bissell: I'm guessing you're not actually from Spain then...

Powow (Somewhere....): Would love to get your opinion on glasnow. Do we see him this year? If so when? What do you think is a reasonable expectation for him this year and beyond?

George Bissell: I ended up with him in TDGX, which is a 20-team expert dynasty league. It's hard not to like the strikeouts and the fastball velocity, but the command is something that could hurt him long-term. If he irons that out and his secondary stuff continues to improve you're looking at a guy who can slot in behind Cole for the next few seasons in that Pirates rotation.

zwibi (Beantown): What is the plan with moncada? Seems like he is blocked at every position on the big league roster. When do you think we can see him making an appearance in the bigs?

George Bissell: He's too good to be "blocked" everywhere. If he's ready they will find a place for him. Zero percent chance he is up in 2016 tho just to be clear. He's a few years away.

Jack (Philly): Hey George! What are your thoughts on Kyle Zimmer heading into the 2016 season? Is he someone who can reach his potential or do you think injuries have stopped that train?

George Bissell: Let's see him stay healthy and build up his innings before we start looking too far ahead. Making it to the Majors would be a best case scenario for him at this point after all of the injury problems he's had.

Van Lingle Mungo Jerry (NY, NY): Really vacuuming up the questions today, George! Clay Davenport's projected prime for Orlando Arcia has him basically .300/.355/.500 with the expected Gold Glove quality defense at shortstop, and 20-30 steals. Does this feel generally accurate to you? 'Cause if he plays 150 games that's about a 7-8 win player by my estimates. Thanks!

George Bissell: The defense is real. I don't think he can reach that type of offensive ceiling right away. I've never heard anything negative on Arcia from any of my prospect or Brewers sources. He's the real deal.

George Bissell: Thank you to everyone who sent in questions! If you want to reach me, hit me up on Twitter @GeorgeBissell #Goodnight