Jobless rate remains steadfast

August 29, 2001|By Peter Comings

By Peter Comings

Staff Writer

OTSEGO COUNTY - True to what has settled in as the new "norm," July's unemployment figures dipped slightly in the northern Lower Peninsula from June's 6.1 percent to 5.1 percent as the area's retail season jumped into full swing. That increase has been tempered over the last year through job losses in automotive and manufacturing positions, the strength of which one year ago helped lower unemployment to 4.1 percent.

Otsego County's unemployment rate dropped over the month from 5.5 to 4.8 percent, but was noticeably higher than the 3.4-percent unemployment posted last year.

"Basically in July you have the model-year layoffs in the automotive industry that Otsego County doesn't get hit hard by," said Dan Lopez, labor market analyst with the Michigan Dept. of Career Development (MDCD) in Traverse City. He estimated in Otsego County 225 more people were locally unemployed than in July of 2000.

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But anecdotal evidence collected by Lopez through labor market surveys suggests layoffs could have been worse in July. He observed many automotive parts manufacturers laid workers off at the beginning of the year. That helped reduce the available stock, he said, and would have shortened many of the layoffs made in conjunction with the model-year changeover.

"Their inventories are already hopefully reduced to the desired levels," he said, carefully choosing his words. "When I look at the unemployment claims activity for July of this year you can see it was higher last year but it wasn't as bad as might have been expected this time of year. It appears to be maybe a good sign that things aren't getting worse."

Otsego County ranked 31st among Michigan's 83 counties for unemployment in July. Mackinac County reported the lowest unemployment rate at 1.4 percent. Wexford County, with its larger industrial base, reported the highest unemployment rate in the state at 9.4 percent. Despite the loss of 225 manufacturing jobs, the retail economy continued to grow here with the addition of 125 jobs, largely attributable to the opening of Home Depot.

"A good portion of them are represented by Home Depot," said Lopez, going on about the retail sector's growth in the face of a lagging manufacturing economy. "A lot of the expectations are that that estimate is high, but from all of the survey results I've gotten the retail trade seems to be holding steady and improving somewhat."