Runoff Called More Likely in Afghan Vote

With Audit Finished, Some Officials Say Fraudulent Ballots Left Karzai Short of Majority; Official Result Expected in Days

By

Anand Gopal in Kabul and

Jay Solomon in Washington

Updated Oct. 16, 2009 12:01 a.m. ET

Afghanistan is likely to hold a runoff election to decide the country's new president, said some Afghan and Western officials, an outcome that would prolong the political uncertainty that has hurt U.S. efforts to beat back resurgent Taliban militants.

The United Nations-backed Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission on Thursday completed an audit of votes from the August first round of the election, which was tainted by allegations of widespread fraud. Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission will now subtract from the total count the votes disqualified by the ECC. Results are expected this weekend.

ENLARGE

U.S. soldiers are picked up by helicopter Thursday in Paktika province, Afghanistan, after looking for suspected Taliban weapons stores and hideouts near the border with Pakistan.
Getty Images

If enough votes are rejected, President Hamid Karzai's share could fall below the majority needed to avoid a runoff with top challenger Abdullah Abdullah.

Mr. Karzai's office in Kabul and Dr. Abdullah's team said separately Thursday that they were still expecting the president to emerge from the audit as the outright winner.

But other officials said to expect a second round. "A runoff is a likely scenario," Afghanistan's ambassador to the U.S., Said Tayeb Jawed, told a conference in Washington hosted by the U.S. Institute of Peace. "If that's what it is, everyone should work very hard to make that happen."

A person familiar with the vote-counting said he assumed a runoff would be necessary. "I don't think the math has been finalized, but I think the impression is starting to be that while we once thought there wouldn't be a second round that it is more likely now," the official said.

Either outcome carries perils. An outright Karzai victory could enrage Dr. Abdullah's supporters, trigger protests and further undermine the legitimacy of Mr. Karzai's government in the eyes of the Afghan public.

But authorities also could have a tough battle proving that results of a runoff are legitimate. The harsh winter months are imminent, and could make it hard for voting to proceed. Election officials will have to find ways to mitigate fraud in the second round, a major challenge in a country where security conditions are too poor in many areas for monitors to observe the polling.

The insurgency is determined to interfere with the polling, as it did with a spate of violent attacks leading up the first round. "We risked our lives to vote once," says Muhammad Zhari, a Karzai backer from the southern province of Kandahar. "Why would we do it again? It would be a crime against Afghans."

A runoff might not take place until November at the earliest, elections officials say, with the subsequent vote-tallying and auditing possibly lasting well into January.

"The next months will be crucial," says an intelligence official with the U.S. military in Afghanistan. "We need a credible partner in the Afghan government, but if this uncertainty continues it will make things difficult."

The trouble started when evidence emerged of widescale fraud in the August elections, including vote-stealing and ballot-stuffing. Election monitors estimate that up to one-third of the ballots are fraudulent -- the majority of those in areas where support for Mr. Karzai is greatest.

The fraud allegations, and the weakening of Mr. Karzai's government, have prompted Washington to embark on a reassessment of its military strategy in Afghanistan.

"Before, the question was how best to support to Afghan government and build the state," says a civilian official with the U.S. military in Afghanistan. "Now the question is whether to build the state at all, or scale back and focus on counterterrorism."

A key concern is whether Dr. Abdullah and his supporters will accept the final election results if they don't go his way, with or without a runoff. He has alleged "massive, state-engineered fraud," a charge Mr. Karzai denies.

Dr. Abdullah, from the Tajik ethnic group, enjoys the backing of some of his fellow Tajiks, who mainly live in the north of the country. The Tajik areas have seen minimal antigovernment sentiment. But lack of legitimacy associated with a Karzai government could fuel disillusionment in such regions.

On Thursday, nearly 100 Abdullah supporters gathered in a Kabul hotel to speak out against perceived injustices associated with the polls. "If they allow the creation of a new government based on fraud, they should know that the people of Afghanistan will react aggressively," said Ali Akbar Kazimi, a leader of the Iqtedar Melli party, which backs Dr. Abdullah.

Some say the tensions could be defused through a political deal. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and an Afghan by birth, arrived in Kabul Wednesday and has been speaking to both candidates in an attempt to find a way out of the impasse.

In the event of a runoff, a possible deal could be pushed further into the future. Most analysts expect Mr. Karzai to survive a second round and emerge as the ultimate victor. However, if insurgent activity or inclement weather forces the closure of a large number of polling stations, even that outcome could become uncertain.

Even with a deal, the fraud-scarred polls are likely to damage the Afghan government's credibility. In a country where support for the government already is low amid accusations of rampant corruption and abuses of power, such credibility is already in short supply.

"It will be difficult for the Afghan government to recover" from the election, says
Habibullah Rafeh,
policy analyst at the Kabul Academy of Sciences.

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