Intelligence Analysis A Target-Centric Approach

ISBN-10: 1452206120

ISBN-13: 9781452206127

Edition: 4th 2013 (Revised)

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Robert M. Clark is an independent consultant performing space systems threat analyses for the US Intelligence Community. He is also a faculty member of the Intelligence and Security Academy and a professor of intelligence studies at the University of Maryland University College. Dr. Clark served in the United States Air Force as a SIGINT collector and intelligence officer, reaching the rank of lieutenant colonel. At CIA, he held a variety of assignments that involved supporting the collection, processing and exploitation of HUMINT, SIGINT, and IMINT. As the President and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, he managed collection programs in the SIGINT, IMINT, and technical collection disciplines. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. He is a presidential interchange executive, a member of the Virginia state bar, a charter member of the Association of Old Crows, and a patent attorney. Dr. Clark's Intelligence Analysis: A Target-centric Approach is now in its fourth edition. His second book, The Technical Collection of Intelligence , was published in 2010.

Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Preface

Introduction

Why We Fail

Failure to Share Information

Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively

Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence

What the Book Is About

Summary

Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis

The Intelligence Process

The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict

The Traditional Intelligence Cycle

Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process

The Target

The Target as a Complex System

The Complex Target as a Network

Summary

Defining the Intelligence Problem

Statement of the Problem

The Problem Definition Product

Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task

Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems

Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problem

Summary

An Analysis Approach to the Target

The Concept of a Model

Using Target Models for Analysis

Counterintelligence Analysis

Targets

Operations

Linkages

Target Model Combinations

Submodels

Collateral Models

Summary

The Analytic Spectrum

The Conflict Spectrum

Strategic Intelligence

Operational Intelligence

Tactical Intelligence

The Temporal Analysis Spectrum

Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence

The Tyranny of Current Intelligence

Fusion Centers

Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions

Indications and Warning

Summary

Synthesis: Creating the Model

Overview of Models in Intelligence

Creating a Conceptual Model

Generic Models

Lists

Curves

Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking)

Pattern Models

Relationship Models

Profiles

Process Models

Simulation Models

Combination Models

Geospatial Models

Human Terrain Models

Space-Time Models

Geographic Profiling

Summary

Sources of Intelligence Information

Existing Reports

A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources

Literal Intelligence Sources

Open Source

Human Intelligence

Communications Intelligence

Cyber Collection

Nonliteral Intelligence

Remote and In Situ Sensing

Imaging and Spectral Sensing

Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence

Radar Intelligence

Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence

Materiel and Materials Collection

Biometrics

Summary

Evaluating and Collating Data

Evaluating Evidence

Evaluating the Source

Evaluating the Communications Channel

Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence

Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence

Combining Evidence

Convergent and Divergent Evidence

Redundant Evidence

Formal Methods for Combining Evidence

Summary

Collection Strategies

The U.S. Collection Management Problem

The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship

Identifying Gaps

Developing the Collection Strategy

Using Existing Collection Assets

Dealing with Enigmas

Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps

Executing Collection Strategies

Summary

Denial, Deception, and Signaling

Denial and Deception

Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods

Higher Level Denial and Deception

The Man Who Never Was

The Cuban Missile Crisis

The Farewell Dossier

The Indian Nuclear Test

Countering Denial and Deception

Signaling

Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D

Summary

Predictive Analysis

Analytic Methodologies

Structured Argumentation

Wigmore's Charting Method

Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence

Competitive and Alternative Target Models

Competitive Analysis

Alternative Analysis

The Role of Information Technology

Summary

Prediction

Introduction to Prediction

Convergent and Divergent Phenomena

The Predictive Approach

Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis

Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis

Scenarios

Why Use Scenarios?

Types of Scenarios

Scenario Perspectives

How to Construct Scenarios

Indicators and the Role of Intelligence

A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020

Summary

Predictive Techniques

Extrapolation

Extrapolation Techniques

Correlation and Regression

Limitations of Extrapolation

Projection

Generating Alternatives

Influence Trees or Diagrams

Influence Nets

Making Probability Estimates

Sensitivity Analysis

Forecasting

The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting

Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting

Evaluating Forecasts

Summary

Shaping Forces

Inertia

Countervailing Forces

Contamination

Synergy

Feedback

Strength

Time Delay

Regulation

Summary

Organizational Analysis

Structure

Organizational Size and Capabilities

Type of Structure

Network Analysis

Function

Rational Aspect

Cultural Aspect

Emotional Aspect

Collective Decision Making

Process

Operations Research

Schedule

Cost

Summary

Technology and Systems Analysis

Technology Assessment

Future Performance

Innovation

Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion

Systems Analysis

Future Systems

Performance Analyses

Systems Simulation

Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis

Creating and Running a Simulation

Summary

The Intelligence Customer

Introduction

Policymakers

Congress

Business Leaders

Military Leadership

Military Operations

Homeland Security

Law Enforcement

What All Customers Want

Analyst-Customer Interaction

Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message

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