Hopefully everyone had a good and safe Holidays. While the "Season "is fun and enjoyable, it's nice to have it all over now. I'm ready to work again!

The first update of the year will be limited to the S&P500. For me, 2010 was a year of "waiting" on the S&P500. The larger wave count suggests, as it has all year, that this current rally is merely a "correction" in a larger pattern that will eventually take the markets much lower--the S&P500 at 850-900 is a higher probability outcome given the wave model.

The S&P 500 started 2010 at 1,115 and finished at 1,257, for a 13% gain. While a 13% gain seems "ok," it was actually a punk performance relative to various commodities and metals, which saw 15-180% gains. Here's a sampling of a few things you might find around your house:

Silver: Up 183%

Lumber:Up 49%

Copper: Up 33%

Gold: Up 33%

Oil: Up 15%

Throughout the year the S&P 500 was essentially range-bound between 1040 and 1220. There were a few decent moves intra-year that provided some opportunities. Indeed, in April we became extremely bearish the S&P500 at 1200 and caught the bulk of the move down to 1040. Though, we held at least 20% of our Max. Short position throughout the ensuing rally, thus eliminating some of that profit. All in all, we probably did as well as those that just bought and held at the beginning of the year.

I remain firmly convinced that the S&P 500 will experience a pronounced trend change which should occur within the first half of 2011. There is certainly room for the market to move a little higher into the 1290 area, but at 1,257 to begin 2011, most of the risk remains to the downside.

So, my official "high and low" for the S&P 500 for 2011, a silly thing to project for sure, will be:

HIGH:1,291

LOW: 1,010

The market will trade lower than 1,000 sometime in the next two years, but the ultimate low will probably be a 2012 phenomenon.

No country nor system is perfect; certainly not India's. But this is an interesting view on how regulation actually works - and that human greed left to itself (to be it's own watchdog no less), will lead to bad outcomes. Contrary to dogma that has washed over the American psyche the past few decades - ironically those countries with the greatest lack of regulation are those being pole axed the hardest. Just coincidence I am sure. Both extremes (little regulation or massive regulation) generally lead to bad outcomes; certainly there must be happy mediums."

I love it with certain folks try to highlight, as a model, other countries in relation to this country.

I wonder if they realize that any such comparisons are somewhat silly and reveal a limited frame of reference.

Any comparisons of the U.S. to Sweden, India, Germany or Canada is basically comparing apples to oranges.

I encourage Denise/dss to move to India.

I have several friends from India who moved to the US and became citizens here. There was a reason for this....

What credit do you think was "cheap" in the past? Was it the home mortgages that were backstopped by GSEs, et al? Was that the cheap credit? Do you have any idea how much of the consumer debt is home mortgages/Helocs vs. credit card debt? Hint: The credit card debt is VERY small compared the former.

Nice charts Andy. This first week will test bears. They are going to sell the belief that all is well with much fanfare. There was a monthly 3LB reversal up so this bullish run may last a little longer than I would like.

Andy, how many important comparisons in life are between "apples" and "apples" alone? I'm sure you compare such things as "stocks to bonds" and "apples to oranges". Comparisons between countries are valid, too.

If you'd like to say instead that "comparing countries is as much an art as it is a science", then I agree with that statement.

>> I encourage Denise/dss to move to India.

C'mon, man. That's the kind of thing neocons say when you're not in favor of their wars.

Seriously, if I like something another country does better than us (e.g., Swedish bank crisis management), you're telling me to move to Sweden?

>> I have several friends from India who moved to the US and became citizens here. There was a reason for this....

Underemployed at 17% Reflects Small Business Rebound With More Part-Timers

"Meanwhile, underemployment was 17 percent in November, up from 8.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007 and near the 17.4 percent peak in October 2009. This comprises people without jobs and those who have given up looking, as well as those who want full-time employment but settle for part-time."

Forget gold and oil. Investors looking to beat the recession in the next decade might want to consider hitting the open range and starting a sheep farm. In 2010, Australian rams began selling for more than $100 a head for the first time in history as dwindling stocks sent mutton prices soaring. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization is forecasting a 300,000-ton shortage in the global lamb supply over the next five years. That’s bad news for the growing number of consumers in the Middle East and Asia with a taste for lamb, but a windfall for long-struggling farmers in Australia and New Zealand, the world’s two largest sheep producers...http://cryptogon.com/?p=19621

In ancient times, Gorgon was a mythical Greek creature whose unblinking eyes turned to stone those who beheld them. In modern times, Gorgon may be one of the military’s most valuable new tools.

This winter, the Air Force is set to deploy to Afghanistan what it says is a revolutionary airborne surveillance system called Gorgon Stare, which will be able to transmit live video images of physical movement across an entire town.

The system, made up of nine video cameras mounted on a remotely piloted aircraft, can transmit live images to soldiers on the ground or to analysts tracking enemy movements. It can send up to 65 different images to different users; by contrast, Air Force drones today shoot video from a single camera over a “soda straw” area the size of a building or two.

With the new tool, analysts will no longer have to guess where to point the camera, said Maj. Gen. James O. Poss, the Air Force’s assistant deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. “Gorgon Stare will be looking at a whole city, so there will be no way for the adversary to know what we’re looking at, and we can see everything.”...http://cryptogon.com/?p=19616

sadly, we're going to seeing these, here, Stateside, as we have with 'earlier' Drone tech, before all too long..

"We enter 2011 at a point where investors have pushed risk assets to a speculative extreme, on the belief that the Fed has provided a "backstop" against losses. While there's no assurance that we won't see a further extension of this over the short-term, we've found more often than not that speculative setups in the financial markets are followed by a striking degree of subsequent resolution in the opposite direction."

I've, always, found it curious that this Event gets so little 'play' in the US..

"In the Dakar 2011 rally Russian Kamaz team driver Vladimir Chagin is still in the lead, completing the 222 km of the day’s stage in 2h44 min 22 sec, 4 min 41 sec ahead of Czech driver Alès Loprais on a Tatra. Chagin’s teammates Firdaus Kabirov and Eduard Nikolaev are in third and fourth place in the race.

In the motorbikes’ department Cyril Despres of France leads the pack, with Spain’s Carlos Sainz dominating the car field.

Nine-time Dakar winners, Russia’s Kamaz Master team won the Argentine race twice in 2009 and 2010..."http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/01/03/38606605.html

Correlations are off today, it's MuFu Q1 Monday, the biggest influx of free money for the year. You think anyone was short ahead of that liquidity injection? Treasury yields are higher as the EoY safety plays are being taken off this morning.

JOHN E didn't select "Treasury bonds" for his new 401k contributions. He never does... the difference this year is he didn't select "muni bonds".

STigltz: Meanwhile, US efforts to stimulate its economy through the Federal Reserve’s policy of “quantitative easing” may backfire. After all, in globalized financial markets, money looks for the best prospects around the world, and these prospects are in Asia, not the US. So the money won’t go where it’s needed, and much of it will wind up where it’s not wanted – causing further increases in asset and commodity prices, especially in emerging markets.

Today is an anomaly. Stocks up, dollar up, for one big reason. Fund flows. We will revert to our regularly scheduled ONE TRADE tomorrow.

After the next breakdown, we may actually see a regime change where the dollar and stocks can rise together. But that involves reinstatement of the yen carry trade, and for that to happen we will have to see the US economy clearly surging past Japan.

BTW, I read a number of reports over the weekend by commentators urging people to sell long duration bond positions and buy short duration bonds. But if we were really in a true recovery then the last place you would want to be is the front end. Absurd, really.

"I like what my charts tell me, but remain skeptical about gold's ability to go higher and worried that it could go much, much lower. Last year, I was wrong about this call, but way better than right on my investment recommendation, which was (and is) to hold equal stake in the ProShares Ultra Short Gold (GLL - News) and the ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ - News); that pairing strategy delivered an 57% gain by Dec. 20, compared with a gain of just 26% for the iShares Comex Gold ETF (IAU 13.88, -0.02, -0.13%) or the S&P 500 Index's (^GSPC - News) 15% gain."

lot of mumble from the mainstream which includes the phrase "I see no reason...." in relation to any rally ending. Surely they could come up with even 1 reason that the rally could end, but I guess they "see none"

some stats for zombies:

$SPY started a new year with >+1% gain 6 times. Here are its next 3-week returns: -1.4%, -2.0%, -2.6%, -0.1%, -10.6%, -3.1%.$$

Bear stat du jour: $SPY >+0.5% to start a new year when near a 3mo high 5 times: '97, '00, '02, '05 & '10. 4 of 'em gave back Dec gains.

Factory orders tomorrow at 10am. A "Goldilocks" number means the rally continues tomorrow.

ADP waiting in the wings, 8.15am Wednesday. Remember that the market will look very closely at this private number for strength in the economy, with the proviso that government jobs may well be down again.

We know that inflation is a problem in China and that the Shanghai index is already leading us down. What is interesting is the hot money has also kindled inflation in Australia, and the Aussie stock market is a lot weaker than the commodity boom might lead you to believe. Canary in the coal mine...

I have been wondering myself how to play the RE collapse in commodity-dollar land. Havent found a particularly ripe REIT out there exposed to the residential side however. Has anyone seen anything for resi RE or RMBS is Canada/Australia?

The Australian banks seem like the best bet, or the Australian shopping mall leverage artists, but watch out for government arb. Remember how ruthlessly the CRE component of the US economy was backstopped...

The lesson of the 2008 crash is when it goes, it all goes, even the good stocks, but the small caps go hardest on forced selling.

Another way of looking at this is any slowdown in China or any kind of crash in Australia means that you wouldn't want to be holding a shedload of small Aussie mining stocks. Perhaps that answers your question best.

Another way to play Aussie collapse would be to be long their long duration govvies once they have tightened too far (probably already there) and short the AUD to hedge currency risk, as a collapse would lead to another carry unwind against USD and JPY.

I'd have to agree, I have been starting to track a basket of small-caps and banks in Australia just to get an eye for the price action. I think the general play may be that this is a contributing factor for the China/commodity slowdown globally, but that may be reaching.

speaking of candos.. i just called local WFC to see if they will exchange my loonies for dollars.. i know they do currency exchange.. just not sure if they do in reverse and for my quanity.. LOL.. they hate to hand out dollars.. i know that much.. a friend of mine tried to take out $10k and was denied.. i think she had to make a special request. anyway, specialist is out so I have to call back after 12:30 PT.

good KD post: This highlights a point that most of you have probably heard 25 times over the last 6 months, and which drives me crazy every time I hear it. Just because bonds are unattractive doesn't mean that stocks are attractive! Now, there's a caveat here, because most money managers aren't going to hold large cash positions (like GMO's 30% current cash position) - in fact, most pension funds and insurance companies probably can't legally hold even 1/3rd that much cash. (anyone know the exact details of their mandates?) Which of course, is precisely the problem: they chase returns because they have to buy something, and then when things blow up, they need to be bailed out. Rinse, repeat.

Well, for now, the (S&P) trend is higher. I wrote a post 13 months ago about momentum vs. mean reversion, and I am going to try again, even harder in 2011, to follow my own advice on that front. Don't fight the Fed, don't fight the tape, don't try to call the top. They say that stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down - watch out when that cable breaks. I do believe that the backdrop for a rough correction is still in place, since I don't think we solved the problems that caused our crisis in the first place, but I'm not short at the moment.http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2011/01/readings-and-signs.html

I lived in Hoboken for a while back in my younger single days. Along w/ Sinatra, its other claim to fame is more bars per capita than any other town (of course, the whole place is only something like 2 square miles, but there are a lot of bars) so that might factor into Shanthi Bharatwaj's analysis. Our school vaca goes for another week, and oldest's tonsils come out on Wednesday, so I guess I'll see you all next week. No crashy without me.

On Monday January 3, 2011, 2:19 pm ESTNEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. consumers who filed for bankruptcy protection rose 9 percent in 2010, and the number could increase in 2011 because of high debt loads and stagnant income growth, a report issued Monday shows.

The number of filings totaled just over 1.53 million in 2010, up from 1.41 million in 2009, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, citing data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center.

>> I was definitely being more snarky than real when I recommended dss move to India.

Doh. Sorry, for misinterpreting. Since you and DSS have clashed before, I thought you were "serious" in your recommendation to her.

>> I don't think there was anything to "learn" from their experience that we didn't already know....

Acknowledged.

I know next-to-nothing about India's political system or distribution of wealth that "former British colony" wouldn't explain. So, it's not like I'm about to whip out some index cards with "top 10 things about India"...

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."