I'm disappointed that Winston doesn't include the statistical error, since it is generally known that the biggest problem with the adjusted +/- stat is that it is extremely "noisy". For a statistician this is a serious oversight.

With adjusted +/-, even with 2 year sample size you routinely see errors of 50, 100% or more, which means that the frequency of bogus results (called "outliers") increases rapidly with decreasing sample size. Half a season sample size is too small to have any confidence in the calculation.

Without getting into specifics, you basically need enough data with enough variation in lineups for & against to separate the effect of the player vs. teammates vs. opposition lineups. There just aren't enough minutes in enough scenarios to do this with any level of confidence with only half season worth of data.

TIm your the delusional one. The fact that you focus so much on andrea shows that you have lost your objectivity. The whole team stinks at defense not just andrea. I've been saying this for two years while you blame everything on andrea. Andrea has stunk since being injuried and there is no other way to describe his play.
The problem is the whole team stinks at defense. Even Wright stinks on defense as his feet are too slow to guard quick wings and he is too weak to guard big wings like pierce.

hmm...so, it's ok if the purported 'best' player on the team stinks, as long as everyone else does too? does he stink because everyone playing in front him stinks, or is their collective stinkitude magnified because they don't have a legit big behind them?

would you be so kind as to clarify who 'everyone' else is? i actually see quite a few guys on the roster who are, at worst, not horrible defenders, and some are even quite good; amir, davis, barbosa, bayless, wright. the way i see it, quite a few of the other raptor rotation players, in the right system or with the 'right' teammates, would be at least functional in most facets of the game. take any raptor rotation player not named bargnani & put them on a decent team, and they'd find a way to help the team; might not (well, almost certainly would not) be in the same role (since most - all? - raptor starters likely wouldn't start for a chip-calibre team), but they'd likely not be considered as bad as they are with the raps.

you take bargs & put him in almost any other current situation on any decent (read: playoff) team in the L, and it doesn't 'make' him a better rebounder or defender, and he likely helps such a team even less than he helps the raps, since chip-calibre teams are just that because they do things the right way, and that starts with stopping (or at least hindering) the opponent's ability to score, and securing the most possessions as possible (via forcing TO's, blocking shots & defensive rebounding). on any decent team (and certainly one with chip aspirations), bargs would be a 15 mpg player who'd play in specific matchups against weak rebounding & scoring bigs (of course, there aren't many bigs in the L who are BOTH weak rebounders AND weak scorers - most have at least some ability in one of those areas), because no coach with a chip-calibre team is going to let a guy like bargnani come in, jack shots, not defend or rebound, & disrupt what they've built. he's given free rein to do so in TO because, let's face it, who gives a fuck?

TRUE LOVE - Sometimes you know it the instant you see it across the bar.

That's nice of him, but as a Bargnani fan I think the hate he's getting now is more than justified. Although it doesn't help in any way, the fans are frustrated. But it's nice to see someone on the team supporting him.

honestly stats are used to lie all the time mulipaul is sitting on fools gold.

Ok ok ok, lets calm down homies.

1st off, i didn't even start this thread.

2nd, if Winston's stats were proving something about a player you LIKED, you wouldn't be up in arms about this.

3rd, to get to Apollo's comment, #'s don't lie, just the people that read them do. It's easy to let your personal biases and preferences betray you when reading stats. But they are what they are, you might not like bargs or think he is good, but as per this analysis, he is an ALL STAR. so we just have to accept it, and enjoy the reign of KING BARGS

Typical Yertu and Tim W pointless hateration. My recommendation is avoid these hate-mongers. You guys should go to Cairo and join the street mob to get out your violent aggression.

PS, the fact that people are referring to Bill Simmons as if he knows jack sh*t about hoopin is rideeeekulous. He is a good writer, funny at times, but totally biased and unknowledgeable about stats. Basically he's a well paid douchebag.

Simmons'opinions are sometimes a little out there no doubt, but his and anyone elses criticism of Bargnani is well justified. We have heard Colanagelo talk since drafting him about how well this guy performed in these secret psycological tests that he is so fond of, that are supposed to translate into a mentally tough player . Maybe it translates as a guy who is mentally tough enough to not give a crap what others say about his game even though they are all completely right.

Bargnani is a cardboard box and some tatterd clothes away from being an actual bum. He is an absolute embarrasment to the game. That's real talk, not the foggy vision of fans so blinded by their love for the team that they will defend a guy to the death, even though his effort and laziness show blatant disrespect to the team and their fans. If he ever turns it around then I will stop s#$%ing on him, but I have seen zero hope that he will ever be more than a 7 foot, Italian version of Corey Maggette minus the free throw attemts.

Typical Yertu and Tim W pointless hateration. My recommendation is avoid these hate-mongers. You guys should go to Cairo and join the street mob to get out your violent aggression.

PS, the fact that people are referring to Bill Simmons as if he knows jack sh*t about hoopin is rideeeekulous. He is a good writer, funny at times, but totally biased and unknowledgeable about stats. Basically he's a well paid douchebag.

sigh. i'm not simmons' biggest fan by any means, but the dump he took this morning had more basketball acumen in it than you'll ever have, my friend.

i do have one request - go play the game. find a group of guys, pick up a ball, head to a gym, and play. but what i want you to do is focus on the one guy who's just there to jack shots, who doesn't understand their defensive/rebounding responsibilities, and who could give two shits about the concept of team basketball. trust me, there's always at least one...of course, in the almost infinitesimally small chance that you do play, i'm guessing that YOU'RE that guy....which would explain a lot.

TRUE LOVE - Sometimes you know it the instant you see it across the bar.