Central banks in focus - UOB

Analysts at UOB noted , that other than the ECB policy decision this Thursday (21 Apr), we will have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) April meeting minutes (19 Apr), the ECB bank lending survey (19 Apr) and the ECB survey of professional forecasters (22 Apr).

"The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will deliver a speech in New York on 19 April while the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his deputy, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will both testify at the Canadian House of Commons Committee also on 19 April."

"Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans (non-voter in 2016 FOMC) who was speaking on Friday (15 April) said he is still expecting two rate increases this year but could move to three depending on data although he noted the high hurdle for a rate hike in April. He opined that a hike could be appropriate in June or ‘a little later’. And on China, he said it would be ‘remarkable’ if China can decelerate smoothly.

"In the G20 Communique from Washington over the weekend, it noted that global growth was “modest and uneven” and threatened by weakness in commodities-based economies. It also highlighted the shock of potential Brexit could complicate global economy."

"Japan’s Finance Minister Aso said that in accordance to G20, countries can intervene in their currencies if there is “excess volatility” or “disorderly” movement. And that the G20 communique reaffirmed the importance of FX stability in light of recent currency market developments. Aso declined to comment when asked if Japan is prepared to intervene in the currency market."

"Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Lew noted that despite recent JPY appreciation, foreign exchange markets remain orderly. He is also heartened that Japan has recommitted to refrain from seeking advantage through currency depreciation."

"ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank will continue to do whatever is needed to pursue price stability objective. He also reassured that the European economy is on a path of gradual recovery and that it is crucial to avert second-round effects of low inflation. He opined that inflation is likely to display slightly negative rates in coming months before picking up later in 2016."