"Pursuing the Perfect Sabermetric Analysis of the PITTSBURGH PIRATES: and translating it into English"

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How Much Power do Pirates Need in RF.

Marlon Byrd is gone. He hit 24 Home Runs last year; three in his one month as the Pirates right-fielder . And RF is considered a position of power. So, the question has been asked, “How many homeruns – or power – do the Pirates need from right-field?”

Answer:

None.

You might be shaking your head and muttering beneath your breath. You might be howling out loud. And you might be thinking that I’m saying that the Pirates don’tneed any power from RF because they get power from the unlikely places of centerfield, second-base, and catcher.

But if your inclined toward sabermetrics – or not – I ask you to give me a chance to convince you that no team needs power from any position!

Caution: This is going to get a little heavier on sabermetrics and math than most of my articles – but not too heavy. Bear with me, please.

I started with a question:

Does any given OPS create the same amount of runs, regardless of the differences in on-base percentage and slugging percentage? For instance: Would a player with an .800 OPS comprised of a .300 OBP and a .500 SLG% create the same amount of runs as a player with an .800 OPS that is comprised of a .400 OBP and a .400 SLG%?

My next step was to create those two fictitious players and calculate a statistic called Runs Created for both players.

Bill James, the man who veritably created sabermetrics, developed a formula to calculate how many Runs a hitter Creates. I like his formula because it can be verified by applying it to team statistics. The simple version of the formula (which I find sufficient, although, unlike Bill O’Reilly, I am not a “simple man.”) is (Hits+BB+HBP) X (Total Bases) divided by (AB+BB+HBP).I did not use hit-by-pitch with my fictitious players. I simply (though, again, unlike O’Reilly) lumped the HBP in with the BB total.Player A has a batting line of .250/.300/.500 — .800 OPS, with 500 at-bats, 250 total bases, 40 HR, 80 singles, 5 doubles, 0 triples, and 38 walks (7.1% BB rate).Player B has a batting line of .300/.400/.400 — .800 OPS, with 500 at-bats, 200 total bases, 0 HR, 110 singles, 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 83 walks (14.2% BB rate).I admit that those two statistical profiles are so extreme that they are likely to never occur in reality. But that’s what makes them useful. If such an extreme difference in OBP and SLG% in two players with the same OPS results in similar Runs Created, I can make a pretty safe assumption that players with less extreme differences will also have a similar Runs Created total.Player A, the one with 40 home runs, had 75.7 Runs Created.Player B, the one with 0 home runs, had 79.9 Runs Created.The player with 0 HR and an .800 OPS was even more productive than the player with 40 home runs and an .800 OPS!Right now, I hope you are growling, “Yeah, Yeah, fiction! Give me a real life, practical example.”I’ll bet you can quickly think of a real life player who has a low batting average, low on-base percentage, a bunch of home runs, and a high slugging percentage.No?He plays for the team which is most often the subject of this blog.Pedro Alvarez, last year, hit .233/.296/.473 — .770 OPS, with 36 Home Runs in 614 plate appearances.Another real life MLB player, whom I shall call Player C, hit .282/.342/.429 — .771 OPS, with only 6 HRs in 341 plate appearances.Alvarez and Player C had an almost identical OPS, but very different on-base percentages and slugging percentages.Alvarez had 75 Runs Created.Player C had only 45 Runs Created.But that actually helps to prove my theory. Remember, Alvarez had 614 plate appearances and Player C only had 341 plate appearances. Pro-rated to Alvarez’s 614 plate appearances, Player C would Create 81 Runs. Player C, with only 6 Home Runs, was on a pace that would Create 6 more Runs than Alvarez, who had 36 Home Runs.You may not be buying my “pro-rated” stat. Okay. That’s reasonable. But . . .Baseball-reference.com has a statistic called Runs Created per Game. It calculates how many Runs a player would Create over the course of making 27 outs – the number a team makes during a 9 inning game.Pedro Alvarez had 4.5 Runs Created per Game in 2013. Player C had 5.2 RC/G. Player C also had a higher weighted On-Base Average and higher weighted Runs Created Plus than Alvarez. (wOBA and wRC+ measure total offensive production.)Player C – brace yourself – is . . .Jose Tabata.Yes, that Jose Tabata. The one who is projected to get most of the Pirates at-bats in rightfield this season. If he produces this year like he did last year, Tabata will create more runs than were produced by the .473 slugging percentage and 36 Home Runs that were hit by Pedro Alvarez in 2013.The Pirates don’t need Home Runs or power from their right-fielders. They need run creation. And that can be done without any Home Runs just as well as it can be done with a bombardment of Home Runs, such as was provided by Brother Alvarez in 2013.You’re probably not convinced – yet.Nate Schierholtz had the same OPS as Jose Tabata last year – .771. He hit 21 homeruns, with a .251/.301/.470 batting line. Tabata, again, had 6 HR with a .283/.342/.429 batting line.Schierholtz had 4.9 Runs Create per Game. Tabata had 5.2 RC/G.Okay. Alvarez/Tabata/Schierholtz and my fictitious players could be an anomaly.So, here’s one of the greatest low batting average, low OBP, high slugging, big HR hitters in the history of the game: Adam Dunn.In 2013, Dunn had a .762 OPS. He hit 34 HR with a batting line of .219/.320/.442.Player D also has a .762 OPS. He hit only 7 HR with a batting line of .254/.361/.402 last year.Dunn Created 5.2 Runs per game.Player D Created 5.6 Runs per game.Player D – brace yourself – is . . .Gaby Sanchez.The Pittsburgh Pirates do not need Home Runs – or power – in RF, at 1B, or any other position. They need Run Creation. And that can be done without Home Runs and without power.We ain’t fakin’, Leefoo, whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on!

This makes since as sabermetrics has shown that OBP% is actually 1.8 times more valuable than SLG% when it come to runs created.

The reason is the way SLG% is computed. Singles times 1, doubles times 2, triples times 3 and home runs times 4. Statistics have shown that a double isn’t twice as valuable as a single and a single three times as valuable as a triple and so on.

That is why I think wOBA (weighted on base average) is a great stat. It seems to be an accurate value of a players offensive value. It expands on Bill James RC.

wRC+ is a great tool for comparing players also because it is based on wOBA and is league and park adjusted. It is scaled to 100 for the league average hitter which makes it great for player comparison versus other players and league average.

Using wRC+ shows that Kendrys Morales (116) would just be a really expensive Gaby Sanchez (117).

It also reinforces your point about Jose Tabata. The average RF wRC+ was 105. Jose had a wRC+ of 118 in 2013.

wRC+ and wOBA are great statistics for overall offensive value. The research that went into the development of those stats, based on run values is astounding. If you haven’t read, “The Book,” by Tom Tango, I strongly recommend it. An explanation of the research is in there.

It’s is funny that you mention that because I knew some about Tom Tango and the background of the development of wRC+ and wOBA but I have just recently started reading ‘The Book’ within the last week. It is quite awesome for anyone with any interest level in sabermetrics. I’ll let you know when I’m finished.

I think “The Book” would fascinate anybody with an interest in sabermetrics. I also liked “Baseball Between the Numbers,” by the writers at Baseball Prospectus. They use a lot of “real-life” game anecdotes to support their points.

I have always been a supporter of Tabata and I agree with the first poster , his issue has been staying healthy . I still think he should be able to hit 15 HR a year if in fact he can stay healthy . If Polanco does show up mid year the point may be mute however I still think he will be a strong 4th outfielder for the club . Of course the real answer is to get Alvarez to be more consistent and Tabata to hit with more power , can sabermetrics do that ?

If Tabata can replicate his August & September from last year you may get your wish for more power. His ISO in those 2 months was .179 & .178. The league average last year was .146 (for all non-pitchers) and .158 for RFs.

Tabata is an interesting player to me. In his career he has struggled on the road and excelled @ PNC a place that is usually difficult for right hand batters (outside of the ridiculous Cutch of course). I think it may be due to his hitting style. His career splits show him to be an average player when going to left, a good player when going to center, and a very good player when going to right. He basically plays like a left handed pull hitter which I think helps him @ PNC. (Cutch actually excels @ PNC even though he employs the exact opposite strategy; slightly above average going to right, excellent going to center, and out of this world going to left. Which goes to show the best strategy is to be ridiculously talented and hard working.)

Now that I veered way of course, back to Tabata. One of the encouraging things to me about Tabata’s 2013 season is he kept up his performance @ PNC and became at least a league average player on the road.

Tabata does love to hit to RF. Good point about that helping him at PNC. And it’s another reason to think that he is a pretty skilled hitter. Hitting the opposite way, seeing a lot of pitches, taking walks, low K%. Let’s hope he stays healthy.

There’s a filter for that sort of search on fangraphs.com. It only take me about five years of using fangraphs before I found it. Alvarez has value. Just not the sort that some think should get him an exorbitant free agent payday – but some GM will give it to him.

Rich…also….I have lots of CDs down in our basement that I have ripped and they are just sitting around. If you’d like a list, let me know, either here or on the Asylum. They’d be free, or I could just meet you at an Altoona game (I live in Harrisburg).

I am going to post a note there, too. There’s a few music lovers on that site (along with a bunch of great guys…we’re the former PG Plus gang).

I remember those guys. Weren’t they all on DK’s original site? I first posted there around the 2008 trade deadline.

I think it would be great fun to meet an Altoona game. I’ve been there probably ten times over the past few years. I love that ballpark. Saw Chase d’Arnaud hit a leadoff HR off of Andy Pettitte in a playoff game. Pettitte was on a rehab assignment.

Richard: Great article. Nittpicking a bit and it does not change your basic conclusion, but when you compare Pedro to player C you prorate Player C to the 600 or so AB. However in your concluding statement you leave player C’s HR total at the un-prorated total of 6. I think you should prorate the home run total of player C to 12 in order to be perfectly consistent.

As stated above this would do nothing to change your premise that Pedro’s 36 HR created less runs than Player C (Tabata) prorated 12HR.

I Love, LOVE this. My only question is this – let’s think back to the game 4 loss to StL. Pedro hit that huge bomb off Wacha. It rattled him. He was pulled because of it. I can’t remember if the HR was with 2 outs or not, but let’s say it was. That homer would be significantly more valuable than a Tabata single in the same situation with 2 outs. So how are homers less valuable here? They do provide instant offense that a bunch of singles with two outs (followed immediately by the innings third out) could not account for. Or am I missing something?

I’m not against Home Runs. I’d like to see a bunch them in the bottom half of innings at PNC Park. But there are other ways to produce runs that are just as effective.

In the scenario you discuss, the HR is definitely more valuable than a single or walk. But the opposite is true of Tabata leading with a single or a walk and Alvarez leading off with a strikeout.

The Runs Created statistic is based “upon” the average run vales of each batting event – single, walk, home run, etc . . . The research that was done on that is amazing. The analysts collected all the hitting data from batting events from a period of years and determine the average change that each event caused in the number of runs that scored in that inning. It is detailed in, “The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball,” by Tom Tango.

Your hypothetical situations are statistical anomalies. How often have you seen a player go 4-4 in the 8 hole and every hit occurs with 2 outs? The stats referenced in article above are derived from huge amounts of data not single instances making them exceedingly accurate.

As far as the psychological impact of a Pedro bomb versus a Tabata single I’m sure it is less reassuring to watch Pedro mash one. Unless of course it is a Tabata single through the infield against the Phillies with AJ on the mound and he knew that Pirate shift would have made it an out and saved a run.

sure. I get that, but let’s say Tabata has an unlucky season where he ends up in situations like that – where he’s getting on base but the hitters behind him generally are not producing. by extrapolating the data, he could be producing X number of runs per 27, but it’s not a reality. I’m not arguing against these types of analysis, but something seems missing – at least in my own thought process.

The thing you have to realize with these Runs Created sabermetric stats we are talking about is that they were developed with huge amounts of data. Hundreds of thousands of actual results and plays. Your circumstance may actually happen on one day. However on another day Tabata may have knocked in 3 runs and scored 3 runs with those 4 hits. The Runs Created was based on the results of all those outcomes of every single play for multiple seasons.