Romancing the Apple

RUDY who? Now he's out of the Senate race, nobody in New York wants to know about Rudolph Giuliani. The new man of the moment is Rick Lazio, a congressman hitherto largely unheard-of outside Long Island who will now be Hillary Clinton's opponent. A clean-cut youthful fellow who has niceness written all over his beaming face, he looks like the sort of opponent the increasingly impressive Mrs Clinton will eat for breakfast. No wonder some Republicans, dismayed by the withdrawal of the bare-knuckle-fighting Mr Giuliani, talk of the First Lady having, perhaps literally, the luck of the devil. They should not be so downcast. Mr Lazio may have a better chance of slaying the demon than Mr Giuliani.

For a start, Mr Lazio will pick up a ton of votes for the simple reason that he is not Hillary. Some psephologists reckon that Mrs Clinton has so many negatives that if the Republicans nominated a bag of bagels it would poll 30% against her. Exactly why is hard to pin down precisely. Being a “carpetbagger” from out of state has something to do with it (helpfully, Mr Lazio is New York born and bred). But Mrs Clinton also seems to have a gift for grating with her natural supporters.

Some successful female professionals resent the way that she has risen on her husband's coat-tails whilst presenting herself as a career woman. Others criticise her for standing by her man despite being publicly humiliated by his sexual antics. Manhattan liberals will bad-mouth her as a hypocrite who presents herself as a saintly, selfless, caring figure, when in fact all she cares about is her own political advancement. And those are the views of sympathetic moderates. Best not to get a Republican activist started on the Whitewater scandal or the suicide of Mrs Clinton's very good friend, Vince Foster.

Mr Lazio can also count on the many Hillary-haters outside New York, who stumped up a fortune for Rudy's campaign, and—even if Mr Giuliani exercises his right to keep that cash for some future campaign of his own—are likely to do the same for his successor in the Senate race. Mr Giuliani's inflammatory fund-raising letters allowed Mrs Clinton to paint him as part of some right-wing conspiracy. With a little subtlety, Mr Lazio should be able to win the same support, without ruining his reputation for being likeable—a characteristic even black Democratic congressmen from New York happily affirm.

This points to another potential advantage: as well as not being Hillary, Mr Lazio is not Rudy. Mr Giuliani, like his erstwhile opponent, was terribly unpopular with a large chunk of the electorate. He so antagonised New York's blacks, particularly by his forceful defence of the police after they shot three unarmed men, that he might have provoked a record turnout of ethnic minority voters. Even if few of them will now switch to support Mr Lazio, far fewer will feel provoked to turn out to vote against him.

Thanks to his support of the death penalty and apparently straightforward personal life, Mr Lazio can also count on the support of New York's small Conservative Party, which opposed Mr Giuliani, who offered neither. In 26 years, no Republican has won statewide office without Conservative backing.

And, unlike Mr Giuliani, who loves nothing more than being mayor of New York city, Mr Lazio really wants to be a senator, and has the commitment, time and energy to mount a campaign to match the exhaustingly vigorous one of Mrs Clinton. Mr Lazio will not share the mayor's reluctance to campaign upstate, particularly when the Yankees are playing—a mistake which allowed Mrs Clinton to win support in the Republican heartlands.

Not being Rudy certainly has some drawbacks too. He loses the support of the tiny Liberal Party. And Mr Lazio does not have Mr Giuliani's hard-won reputation as the man who restored law and order to the city that never sleeps. On the other hand, New Yorkers seemed profoundly ungrateful on this score. If the newly nice Mr Giuliani campaigns for Mr Lazio energetically enough, some law-and-order Democrats may see a vote for Mr Lazio as a way of thanking Mr Giuliani without having to tolerate him in their face.

That leaves Mr Lazio's own record. By most standards he has been an effective sort in Washington, DC (in fact he might prove a better senatorial politicker than either Mr Giuliani or Mrs Clinton). Mrs Clinton has already branded him a “Newt Gingrich conservative”—a good tactic in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans. But Mr Lazio stands by his support for the unmissed Mr Gingrich's ill-fated “Contract with America”, especially its promised balanced budget, tax relief for working families and strong defence. “What is it exactly they don't like?”, he asks.

Besides, Mr Lazio does not match the usual unpalatable Gingrich stereotype. He has voted for bills protecting the environment, subsidising health care for the working disabled and securing low-rent housing for the poor. He is broadly pro-choice, though he opposes “partial birth” abortion. He prefers being liked to being provocative. And he can press the “I feel your pain” buttons at least as well as Mrs Clinton. He can impress Jewish groups with his hard work for the repatriation of Holocaust assets. With his photogenic wife and young kids frequently by his side, he will certainly match the First Lady platitude for platitude on the importance of the family and how children matter.

Having prepared herself for a celebrity personality contest, Mrs Clinton may now have to talk far more about issues. Five years ago, another likeable but unknown moderate Republican, George Pataki, dethroned New York's main political celebrity, Mario Cuomo. When Mr Giuliani was still running, senior Republicans fretted that the clash of egos allowed Mrs Clinton to hide her big-government beliefs—beliefs that are probably unpopular with the key suburban voters. Now they hope that Mr Lazio can flush out the real Hillary. That strategy in turn relies on two things: the untested Mr Lazio managing to avoid making gaffes; and Mrs Clinton not changing her definition of the “real Hillary” yet again. Mr Lazio is in with a chance, but she starts in front—and who would have thought that possible even three months ago?