What to Expect in 2013: Left Handed Starting Pitchers

The Phillies have always liked their live armed lefty pitchers. The system has a large quantity of left handed pitchers with plus stuff. Tops of these arms are two pitchers with mid-rotation ceilings and the proximity to make them relatively safe bets to meet those expectations. The Phillies hope that one of the young pitchers behind them can establish themselves as more than just an arm but a serious pitching candidate. The good thing about left handed starters is that their floors can be relatively high as long as they can master some fastball control and a good breaking pitch. This is because there is always a need for good LOOGYs, and even more important left handed relievers who can get both left handed and right handed batters out. The Phillies have a history of giving these guys the chance to start until they fail before moving them to the bullpen, some of these pitchers may make it to the majors as starters before reaching their ultimate home in a bullpen.

Jesse Biddle (21) – Biddle is the best prospect in the system, a big strong workhorse Biddle has a plus fastball and curveball, and he also has a change up that profiles as at least average as well as a slider and two-seamer that were late additions in 2012. Biddle will face a tough challenge in AA but he has a fairly safe #3 starter profile, but there is plenty of room for him to improve to a #2 starter ceiling if he can continue to make the same size strides he has in previous years.

Adam Morgan(22) – Morgan made huge strides in 2012 as his stuff ticked up across the board. His fastball sits 92-94 and can touch 96, his slider is average now but has plus potential, and his change up is a borderline plus pitch right now. Morgan has above average control which helps his arsenal play up. Morgan has a #3 start profile right now but there is a small chance that he could be more than that.

Austin Wright (23) – Wright has the best fastball of the three lefties who were in Clearwater this past year with the pitch sitting in the low to mid 90s. He pairs it with a sharp slider and a change up that is still well below below average. Wright’s control is fringe average as well. The Phillies will continue to give Wright innings as a starter in Reading, but he will need to improve the changeup and control to stick as a starter long term. If he can’t start Wright has the making of a power lefty who can go multiple innings out of the pen while getting out both righties and lefties.

Ethan Stewart (21) – Stewart is a big bodied left who can run his fastball up to 92, bit the body suggests that there may be some more velocity in there and in addition Stewart has an average changeup and curveball. On the surface Stewart’s 3.89 ERA suggested a decent year but his BB/9 increased a run and a half to 4.98 BB/9 and his K/9 dropped by 2.5 strikeouts, also his ground ball rate sharply decreased. Stewart will need to improve on these if he is going to regain his prospect status, he will be starting in Clearwater in 2013.

Mario Hollands (24) – Hollands pitched on four different levels in 2012 and only had success at his stops in the low minors. Holland as a large collection of pitches which top out with some average offerings. He has had some control and homerun issues over the past three years that have really limited his success. At this point Hollands is bordering between a reliever conversion and org pitcher and will have to show some large improvement to regain any prospect status. There is almost no way of knowing where the Phillies will stick him in 2013.

Line Martinez (20) – Martinez was poised for a breakout in 2012 but struggled greatly in his full season debut in Lakewood. Martinez is not overpowering his fastball sits in the hi-80s touching the low-90s, but he has the feel for a good changeup. The problem has been that he has not really missed bats to the point and hitters have really been able to hit him around. Having pitched all of the year at 19 there is still hope that Martinez can make some improvements going forward. His age makes a return trip to Lakewood in 2013 a high probability.

Ervis Manzanillo (21) – Manzanillo returned to Lakewood to work on his command but injuries cut short his season. Manzanillo has a fastball that sits 90-93 and can touch 95, his secondary offerings (slider and changeup) are fringy and both have plus potential. Manzanillo’s control has been a problem and he will need to improve greatly on it to have a future. Manzanillo has drawn comparisons to Antonio Bastardo, but he will need to show enough improvements in the spring to pitch in Clearwater in 2013.

Hoby Milner (21) – Milner was a reliever in college but the Phillies see him as a starter for now. His fastball sits in the hi-80s but can touch 91, with a little more out of the bullpen. His main weapon is a hi-70s curveball and he has a changeup that is a workable pitch. Milner had a good debut pitching for Lakewood and will likely go on to the Clearwater rotation in 2013. It is likely that Milner will return to the bullpen at some point but the Phillies have tendancy to let pitchers try as a starter until the hi-minors where they will make the conversion if necesarry.

Braden Shull (19) – Shull was a project when the Phillies took him in 2011, his fastball sat in the high 80s in high school, but his 6′ 6″ frame suggests there could be more velocity there. Shull commands his fastball well for a pitcher his size, and his secondary pitches are still a work in progress. Shull lost 2012 to injuries, but he still remains a high upside lottery ticket and he will likely be held back in Extended Spring Training before going on to Williamsport.

Franklyn Vargas (18) – In 2010 the Phillies paid Vargas the highest bonus of any Dominican left hander as a 16 year old who was already sitting in the low-90s with his fastball. Vargas made his stateside debut in 2012 and pitched well, albeit with some control issues though he did miss plenty of bats. Vargas also has a slurvy curveball and a changeup both of which are still developing but have good potential. Vargas’s frame suggests plenty of projection and the Phillies will likely hold him back in spring training before having him pitch him in Williamsport as an 18 year old.

Sergio Velis (17) – Big money bonus out of Latin America, Velis impressed at a young age in his pro-debut. Velis currently has an average fastball, a changeup that shows good potential, that pair well with good control and an advanced pitchability for his age. Velis will likely make his stateside debut in 2013, where we should get a better set of scouting reports on his pitches.

Luis Gonzalez (20) – Another Latin lefty, Gonzalez bounced betweent the rotation and bullpen in Willaimsport with mixed results. He could continue on to Lakewood but he will need to make improvements on the field to continue to stick in the organization as more than an org reliever.

Yoel Mecias (19) – Mecias made his stateside debut in 2012 and was impressive during both the GCL season and Fall Instructs. Mecias has a mid-90s fastball and developing secondary pitches, he also showed good command with an impressively low walk rate for a prospect his age. Mecias will play all of 2013 at age 19 and will likely stay in extended spring training before going to Williamsport. He is definitely an arm to keep an eye on in 2013.

Some Questions:

Is there still room for growth in Biddle and Morgan or are they solid #3 starters?

The Phillies have spent quite a bit on Latin lefties, there are some live arms there, are there any real pitching prospects there?

Is it really so bad is some of these guys end up as dominant lefty relievers?

74 thoughts on “What to Expect in 2013: Left Handed Starting Pitchers”

With the talk of Biddle adding a pitch, there may be room for growth beyond a solid #3 starter. I think less so with Morgan. Nothing wrong with getting a dominant lefty reliever, or even a LOOGY, out of these guys. I don’t doubt that some were acquired with relief in mind. Don’t know what to make of Shull. He hasn’t fallen into as deep a hole as Walter and Shreve, but this season is certainly important to his ability to have a significant career as a pitcher. Truth is, more pitching prospects fall by the wayside for health reasons than failure to develop. It is a cruel business of starting with a large number of prospects and winnowing it down to a few survivors who reach the majors for more than a cup of coffee. Most of the guys on this list won’t survive that process and a good number will never see Reading.

I’ve been pretty high on Morgan. A lot of the reason he wasn’t getting as much buzz was because his fastball wasn’t reported to be as high as it is now. I really like both Biddle and Morgan and think they both will be solid starters.

Hadn’t thought about that but with Lee, Hamels, and hopefully Halladay here as the top 3 in 2014 and beyond, those last two spots with Pettibone, Biddle, Morgan, Martin, Cloyd, and Rosenberg would be a nice problem to have. Here’s hoping Biddle, Martin, Morgan, and Pettibone are the next Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Baumgarner.

Personally I think he is #3 ahead of Joseph, but I have been high on Morgan since his debut. He compares relatively well stuff wise to Biddle, Morgan has the better fastball but Biddle has the better breaking ball. The problem is Morgan is a year and a half older, but he improved his stock more than anyone else in the system this year.

I probably agree the more I think about it. I had Morgan ahead of Joseph at the end of the year, but Joseph’s scouting reports seem to indicate he’s better than what he showed last year (which wasn’t bad). If Morgan was in another organization and we traded Joseph straight up for him, I’d be happy about the trade.

I would say yes, Morgan went from a back of the rotation guy who was just as likely to end up in the bullpen to a legitimate mid rotation starter who has a chance to be a front of rotation guy. Ruf has become a prospect but his realistic ceiling is still below what Morgan’s is, I personally think the jump into being a really good prospect is a much larger jump than just having a major league ceiling, Ruf still has a lot more questions that Morgan does right now.

Morgan really suprises me. Why people dont rate him higher, no way joseph is ahead of him, its him and biddle at the top, watch the kid pitch, he has the stuff to be a really solid starter, as far as 1 verus 3 or 2 i really never get into that, because until i see a guy around the league a couple of times no one can justify what he is, lincelum was a 1, imo he isnt any more.

I saw Morgan, May, Colvin( at Clearwater) and Cloyd pitch this season. Morgan was at Reading and was impressed how effortlessly he throws 94, he really does resemble Cliff Lee. Interestingly enough Colvin was the most impressive but I think I saw his best game of the season.

As I’ve said in the past, I have less of a sense of pitching prospects than hitting prospects, so I mostly stay out of these debates. I do know that the risk factor is higher on pitchers; when comparing Morgan to a position player (e.g., Joseph), that factor would enter into the rankings for me (as would the age difference). I don’t know the extent to which the former enters into the “conventional wisdom.” (The latter certainly does.)

Why are you low on him? The scouting reports are great, he has a super arm, good plate discipline, is a said tp be a solid leader and has a lot of raw power. He just finished his age 20 season in AA with numbers that similar to those put up by Travis d’Arnaud at age 20 when he was in low A ball. I think you could easily make an argument that Joseph is their best prospect and, for me, he is clealy in the top five (Ihave him at 3 after Biddle and Quinn and right before Morgan, Asche and Franco).

When you go to the minor league camp at spring training, the first thing you notice is how big all the pitchers are. These kids are huge, you feel like you walked into an Eagles practice. Biddle and Morgan, and Wright, are really big and the comment that they throw 90 with an smooth easy movement is actually a big one. To me it says that their chance of injury is a little less than the violent thrower. None of these guys is a Hamels unfortunately (thank goodness we got him extended) but its not hard to foresee Biddle and Morgan both in the rotation in two years. The one thing that everyone forgets is that Wright was named FSL pitcher of the year, not Biddle or Morgan. I think we might be undervaluing what he could be (I have him at #21). I also think Stewart has a chance to develop more but I don’t think we have any idea what to expect from the Latin kids. As far as whether Morgan, Pettibone or Joseph is 3, 4, or 5, who cares. Matt summed it up nicely the other day, there are 6 obvious guys for the 3 – 8 spots. These three guys are all obviously in that group. I don’t think any of them are 4 star talents but they all could be solid 10 year performers and that would be terrific. 54 days to ST.

I think the only reason Morgan didn’t get FSL pitcher of the year was because he didn’t finish the year there. All his numbers were better than Wright’s, but I do like what Wright brings. Hopes were higher for him than for Morgan at the start of last year based on his fastball. Hopefully his changeup and control come along in Reading.

I think Morgan might be getting undersold because his draft profile wasn’t really that of a top end starter; just a back-end guy really. But if his fastball really borders on plus (as velocity reports seem to indicate) and he has a plus change, and he has above average control, I don’t see why it’s out of the realm of possibility he could be a #2. I don’t even think it’s much of a reach.

Also, any live-armed lefty who’s young is a prospect as far as I’m concerned. I really like this group of pitchers. Of course the odds are way against them but you’ve got to like Vargas and Velis and Mecias, not to mention the top 3 guys on the list.

I would agree that it isn’t too much of a reach that Morgan could be a #2, the hesitancy is that he has already changed his profile enough that people are cautious about all of the changes stick and then him improving some more. To be a #2 the command and control have to really get to being plus (not impossible, not easy, but doable) and the breaking ball will have to tick up a little bit. The likely outcomes is as a good #3 but that is really valuable starter and a huge win for the front office getting that guy in the third round.

I agree that it is conceivable that Morgan has the potential to become a #2.
I think there are things that keep experts from giving him that ceiling. Generally, when you hear a prospect has the ceiling of a #2, he has a plus fastball, that is common knowledge. I think because Morgan’s plus pitches are his off-speed offerings, he gets a little underated. The other thing that has worked against him is his draft status and being a college pitcher. The experts are not impressed by college pitchers until they dominate AA. He just made it there, so he is just being noticed.

Right now, it’s Biddle, Wright, Morgan and everyone else. But those big three are nothing to sneeze at. Thanks for this report – I was reading about these three guys in particular all year and you really seemed to capture exactly what was written about them. People, I think, don’t fully realize that if Wright polishes his command or develops an out pitch, his career could rocket forward in a hurry because he’s huge and has a big arm.

He really is nothing like Matt Maloney except that both are lefty and are big guys. Maloney was/is a soft tosser, finesse pitcher who relied/relies on guile. Wright is a power lefty with control problems but plenty of velocity. Wright could easily fall flat on his face, but Matt Maloney never had anywhere near the kind of potential Wright has.

I think, secretly, the Phillies are convinced that one or more of their high end pitching prospects – and it could be Morgan because Amaro talks him up at every opportunity – is going to be ready to go into the rotation very, very soon. To his credit, Amaro loves and values pitching. So it’s not like him to go into a big season with two guys at the back of the rotation who have been functional #5 starters. And he could very well be right, but I’d be curious to know what they really think of all these guys, including Rosenberg, who carries a howitzer on his right shoulder and can maintain velocity for many innnings.

I think so too. That, more than anything, is what I took away from the Lannan signing. I don’t know if it’s because they’re high on one guy in particular, like Pettibone or Morgan, or just that group of AAA/AA pitchers as a whole, but they must feel like at least one of them will be major league ready soon.

He is currently sitting 88-93 touching as high as 94 but there are still occasional reports on days when he will touch much higher. The velocity isn’t plus but he has good deception and movement as well as good leverage (downward plane) on it because of his build and release point making it play up as a plus pitch even with the diminished velocity.

Jesse, and other pitching prospects (but I know more about Jesse because my son plays ball for GFS), have been told to focus more on control than velocity during the time in the lower levels of the minors, which is why his velocity increased during the second half of 2012. And, no, I don’t think Keith Law knows this!

I have to admit I’m getting really excited by some of the recent writeups. I fully expected Pettibone to be added to the rotation sometime this season(hence the lannan signing), but didn’t figure on Morgan possibly being ready. BA doesn’t seem as high on Morgan. Is that due to them wanting to see consitancy on the big jump in velo?

I wouldn’t say they are less high on Morgan, but rather BA likes Joseph (decent arguments as to why can be made easily) and they have always really like Pettibone. In their right up they mention that he could surpass his #3 ceiling if he makes the improvements on his secondary pitches.

I have no problem with Morgan slotting in above Joesph. I personally rank Joesph at 8 or 9. His scouting reports are the only reason he’s not lower. He had a boardline poor year and his low contact skills and the disappearance of his power this past year concern me.

Great write ups. Thanks for breaking up the velocity reports so we could understand true velocity. I didn’t realize Austin Wright had such good raw stuff. (He sounds like Gio Gonzalez-ish) I have never seen any of these guys pitch except Adam Morgan in college. I thought Morgan was a surefire MLB pitcher, I just wasn’t sure in what capacity. I’m glad he is projecting so well.

BA is not down on Morgan, by any means. I saw him pitch early at Reading. He did something I have never seen before. Every fb he threw in the 5th inning of that game were clocked at 93 mph. I was amased. A little disappointed, but he was missing bats anyway. I was glad to see that he was changing speeds [[2-94] in other inn. that night. It is very comforting to see Morgan throws so nice and easy.

I don’t know that I would count on three or four of the five of our top 5 arms as being in the rotation (Biddle, Morgan, Wright, Martin, and Pettibone) Pitchers just have too high of a failure rate.

To me right now only Morgan and Pettibone have demonstrated enough control to be major league starters. I am not sure why Wright who had 3.7 BB/9 last year and 3.4 career is considered fringe average while Biddle 3.4/3.9 is considered above average according to his 20/80 on this site. Obviously Biddle is trending in the right direction but he isn’t even average control on my mind yet. While Martin’s control improved from the horrendous 6+BB/9. It is still a awful 4.5 I just can’t see someone who has never achieved a K/BB over 2 as being a starter. I need to see another year of massive improvement out of him before I get excited.

Kendrick becomes a really interesting case after this year. Obviously if he regresses you let him go but if he can do anything similar to his second half last year say ERA and K/BB around 3 for how much and how long do you sign him? He has already become a rather expensive back end starter.

The difference is that Biddle and as well as the traded May simply have better stuff. The quality of your pitches matters and is probably more ability related and therefore less improvable by coaching than control and command. To judge the quality of minor league pitching prospects just by BB/9 seems myopic.

I’m not saying Biddle doesn’t have better stuff than Wright, although Wrights fastball is faster if I am not mistaken, but I don’t know why Biddle’s control is rated higher when the stats don’t support it.

BB/9 isn’t always the best indicator of command and control in the minors, it is a good indicator but not the end all be all of it. Not saying any of this is necessarily true for Wright and Biddle (their reports are based on what the scouting reports say). There are a couple of things that can be differences that won’t show up in BB/9, the first is that minor league umpires are horrendous, pitches like Biddle’s curveball that has large sharp break is almost never going to be call for a strike regardless of how good it is thrown because the late break will make it look like it finished out of the zone, the second thing with umpires is that for a pitcher like Biddle who shows fastball command to scouts and can place it on the corners is not going to get the calls he will get at higher levels. Another factor is chases out of the zone, at the lower levels a pitchers with good raw stuff will get plenty of swings out of the zone by undisciplined hitters, this will even out over time and better hitters. The other thing we don’t know from BB/9 is how those walks are coming, are they not putting batters away or are they throwing 4 straight balls. (again this all may be irrelevant to Wright and Biddle, but these are some of the dangers of going off straight numbers in scouting minor leaguers)

The reason I am more encourage by Biddle’s control projection is his delivery coupled with the improving walk rates against better hitters. Wright’s delivery does not necessarily lend itself to good control and he has had increasing walk rates against better competition (on Wright’s projection it is much more likely his control improves than the third pitch developing adequately)

The reports I’ve read on Austin Wright, since he was drafted, says he has a plus fastball, and a good breaking balll that gets swings-and-misses. But they say can’t throw the breaking ball for strikes and he doesn’t have a good change-up.
A lefthander with no change-up, will always profile as a reliever, and have a lower ceiling than the Lefthander that throws a changeup and can throw strikes with two other pitches.

Phoulballz interview Excerpts with Tyler Cloyd :
– What exactly is your off-season workout routine like? Is there anything different this year compared to other years? ………..I would say that this off-season has been a lot different this year, as far as working out, than years past. When this season was coming to an end, I really sat down with the strength and conditioning coach and we talked about a good off-season plan for me. I’ve really been pushing myself and even got together with one of my buddies, who is now a personal trainer, to really help me stay on track and get to the point where I want to be at going into spring training.
– How much time off from throwing do you take? And when will you begin a throwing program to get ready for spring training?………Normally, my time off from throwing really depends on how I felt at the end of the year, and how I’m feeling during the off-season. Normally I give myself about 2 ½ – 3 weeks off of throwing, and then slowly start tossing again. So, for this upcoming spring training, I started throwing in the middle of November and I’m slowly working my way back, getting into bullpens sometime in January.
– I imagine you’d be reporting to spring training a bit earlier in 2013 than you have in the past. When do you expect to head to Clearwater and what are your hopes and goals for spring training?…My wife and I will be heading down to Clearwater around the end of January. Since we got married in 2010, we try and head down about two weeks early. We do this so I can start working out at the facilities there with the trainers, get acclimated to the Florida climate, and also use it as kind of a vacation for the both of us before baseball starts.

It’s a big fallacy that a high K/9 comes from throwing a speedy FB in the minors. What really racks up the Ks is a good breaking ball or change that can be thrown for a strike and setup by a 90+ FB. I’ve seen many a minor league pitcher, including our own, chuck up 95+ FB after 95+ FB and get zilch swinging strikeouts on it. A fast FB, without much movement, from a guy that lacks quality or controllable offspeed stuff gets hit by a lot of minor leaguers, especially if the pitch is left belt high. Minor league hitters, especially the non-veteran types moving up at least a level a season, live off the FB. They are still learning to handle the bendy stuff. I think the hard fastball actually works better in the bigs, where you have a lot of aging sluggers who can’t get around on a well-positioned plus FB.

Better to check the actual scouting reports than the stats. Maddox threw 93 mph when he came up. Even then he had great movement on his secondary offerings (curve and changeup). People seem to forget that the big question mark on Maddox was that he didn’t have good control when he first came to the Major Leagues. It was a few years before that developed. The fact that every soft tossing control pitcher gets compared to him is really erroneous.

No disrespect, but a lefty soft tosser is virtually never a comp for a righty soft tosser. Lefty soft tossers can, in rare instances, have good, long careers (Moyer, Buehrle, etc . . . ). For the most part, a righty soft tosser is dead to all rights – a complete non-factor. To make that work as a righty, you need a devastating out pitch, like Doug Jones’ change-up, Mike Boddicker’s “fosh” ball or Bruce Sutter’s split fingered fastball. But, otherwise for a slow throwing righty who just moves the ball in and out and throws multiple pitches from a typical over-the-top motion – the likelihood of having long-term success is virtually zero.

If Cloyd can hit 90 MPH semi-regularly and move the ball around, he might be able to pull off being a #5 starter for a year or two, but chances are he is going to get the crap beat out of him on a regular basis. My view is that Austin Hyatt, who throws quite a bit harder and has a very good change-up, has much better odds of long-term success in the majors than Cloyd.

Good job Aron. I was hopeing someone would actually read reports or actually remember seeing Maddox who threw low 90’s in his career with outstanding stuff. I was beginning to think they wer getting him mixed up with his brother. He was a soft tosser.
When it comes to Wright. You will be hard pressed to find a pitcher with reports as spread out all over the board. I was shocked at the end of the year when he was named the Pitcher of the Year for that league. Morgan was named to the all star team and the best pitcher got no conf. awards,

I saw Maddux pitch a lot. He was regularly in the low 90s at his peak. Also, Maddux had insane movement on his pitches, historically great command and was smarter than everyone else. Maddux is a once in every 4 generations type of pitcher and not a good source of comparison.

It’s like saying a small guy, with a weak arm who can move around the pocket in football is another Joe Montana. No, there’s one Joe Montana – he’s the most extreme statistical outlier and the fact that another quarterback may, superficially, look like him does not prove that the quarterback will be successful; to the contrary, the lack of size and physical tools almost conclusively proves that the other quarterback will not be successful in the NFL.

“I saw Maddux pitch a lot. He was regularly in the low 90s at his peak. Also, Maddux had insane movement on his pitches, historically great command and was smarter than everyone else. Maddux is a once in every 4 generations type of pitcher and not a good source of comparison.”

I saw Maddux pitch as well and this is an excellent description of him. Even after he lost his fastball everything he threw had insane movement and he could still control the location. Yet he never could regain his success after his fastball dropped into the 87 MPH range. He was OK, but never again Greg Maddux.