As Cubs head into offseason of uncertainty, brain trust must think big

A year ago Thursday, at exactly 11:47 p.m., the ball hit Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo's mitt at Progressive Field in Cleveland and the ground shook in Chicago, creating good vibrations that lasted long enough to diminish any disappointment in 2017.

A year later, the Cubs reluctantly relinquished their status of World Series champions after a Fall Classic between the Dodgers and Astros that exceeded theirs in terms of entertainment and drama, if not historical significance.

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Suddenly, a Cubs team coming off its third straight National League Championship Series officially heads into baseball's offseason with uncertainty outweighing invincibility and doubt replacing any talk of a dynasty. Project the Top 10 teams in baseball in 2018. How can anyone objectively place the Cubs higher than seventh, behind the Dodgers, Nationals and Diamondbacks in the National League?

That can change before the Cubs report to Arizona for spring training if President Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer remind everyone how smart they are over the winter. The onus falls on Epstein and Hoyer to take an aggressive approach to a team that won 92 games, the National League Central and a playoff series — and that tack goes way beyond the overrated overhauling of the coaching staff.

Don't get me wrong; manager Joe Maddon getting caught in a fib with the dismissal of scapegoats — pitching coaching Chris Bosio and hitting coach John Mallee — provided fascinating post-NLCS theater. The way Maddon rationalized why he misspoke reinforced the difficulty he has acknowledging any mistake, a disturbing pattern impossible to ignore after three seasons. Good thing that Maddon wins.

But neither Bosio nor Mallee were the reasons the Cubs either blew leads in the playoffs or stopped hitting with runners in scoring position. With due respect, baseball coaching staffs affect outcomes less than their equivalent in other sports, meaning the Cubs losing Bosio, Mallee or even bench coach Dave Martinez to the Nationals hurts less than, say, the Bears losing defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The list of candidates to replace Martinez makes fascinating headlines, with everyone from David Ross to John Farrell to Ozzie Guillen inducing more web clicks than the possibility of front-runner Brandon Hyde. Truth is, you have to wonder how much impact a bench coach has on an experienced manager as accomplished as Maddon anyway.

The Cubs can survive the loss of valued staff members, and even the death of transparency, as long as Maddon continues to create a culture conducive to winning and the roster Epstein and Hoyer assemble produces. Over a 162-game regular season, it always comes down to players — which brings us back to the Cubs' biggest offseason priorities.

They start with starting pitching. With the likely departure of free-agent Jake Arrieta and retirement of John Lackey, the Cubs have 60 starts to replace. A natural direction to look for answers is St. Petersburg, Fla., where new pitching coach Jim Hickey spent 11 years with the Rays, where right-hander Alex Cobb also has played since 2011. Cobb, a free agent, went 35-23 from 2011-14 when Maddon managed the Rays before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015. His 12-10 record with a 3.66 earned-run average last season puts Cobb in the affordable category as a No. 5 starter.

Replacing Arrieta will cost significantly more, either in money or players. But the Cubs need to think big. To pry another pitcher away from the Rays — Chris Archer tops my wish list — might require the Cubs offering shortstop Addison Russell or Javier Baez, whomever the Rays preferred. Ideally, the Cubs will unload the onerous contract of light-hitting outfielder Jason Heyward that has $146 million left on it but, chances are, Russell, Baez and Ian Happ will draw more trade interest than Heyward. Slugger Kyle Schwarber gives the Cubs another asset to attract pitching, but his trade value plummeted during an all-or-nothing season.

Archer, 29, would be worth giving up a core position player because of his ability and his controllable contract, which has four years and $31 million remaining — a right-handed Jose Quintana.

Trade rumors involving Giants starter Jeff Samardzija will persist and some fans will push Epstein to tilt at windmills in pursuit of Yu Darvish, but neither option seems realistic. Cardinals starter Lance Lynn hitting the market also bears monitoring, as does the slim chances of Johnny Cueto or Masahiro Tanaka opting out of their contracts.

A league source said the Cubs planned to pursue Dodgers right-hander Brandon Morrow, if his arm hasn't fallen off after yeoman's work in the World Series. An all-out commitment to re-sign reliever Wade Davis needs to come first, a tricky equation given the well-documented recent risks of signing free-agent closers to large contracts, i.e. Mark Melancon.

The Cubs' most mysterious possibility originates in the Orient, where Shohei Otani, 23, the Japanese version of Babe Ruth, announced plans to play in the majors. Complex collective bargaining rules prevent the Cubs, because of past international expenditures, from offering a signing bonus of more than $300,000 for Otani — about $3.5 million less than other bidders. That will require Epstein to sell a potentially transformative player not driven by money on everything else great about playing in a world-class city for a Cubs team good enough to win it all again in 2018.