When Will Trump Deliver On The Trade War: Soybeans

Stock market meltdown, government closure, coup d’etat at DoJ, announced exit from Syria, maybe-exit from Afghanistan, tanks on the Russia-Ukraine border, DPRK still developing nukes, and Mattis departs. But at least we’re winning the trade war, right?

Source: Barchart.com, accessed 12/21/2018

So, despite the “truce”, soy prices have not recovered measurably. From FarmProgress.com:

China’s return, if it holds, could increase old crop export demand by 50 million or maybe even 100 million bushels. That’s better than nothing, but it doesn’t change potential for global soybean inventories to swell to record levels in coming months. Barring a sudden turn worse in South American weather, the amount of soybeans leftover at the end of the marketing year Aug. 31 will still be terrible, just not as terrible. If Brazilian beans don’t wind up in China they’ll wind up someplace else.

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of more

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues.

Menzie received a PhD in economics from the University of California at Berkeley and was a senior economist with the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2000 to 2001.