A bear market, which would officially mark the end the current bull market, is defined as a 20% drop in the S&P 500.

We have come close to 20% declines outside a recession – 1998 and 2011. We experienced a mild bear market in 1966 (down 22%) that coincided with a sharp economic slowdown but no recession (St. Louis Fed).

With the exception of the 1987 market crash, however, bear markets closely coincide with recessions (St. Louis Fed, NBER). Leading economic indicators suggest odds of a near-term recession are currently low.