Tuesday, October 19, 2010

I had only been watching Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) with one eye, until I noticed a chart yesterday on financial entertainment TeeVee of its parabolic run. Pulling up my own chart today I see the stock had run in "computerized like" fashion to exactly touch $100 from its lows in the mid $60s in late August... aka a 50% run in 7 weeks. Epic.

Lesson learned on this one - I was late on the commodity train and had decided in early September to buy an iron ore play, Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) as a 'catch up' idea. In theory this could have worked - but I chose the wrong subsector - something in the agricultural space would have been a far better choice. So rather than a 50% run from trough to peak, the best you could have done in CLF is 20%... a huge difference.

But going back to the K.I.S.S. method - everyone in the market knows FCX is the hedgies "go to" stock for commodity exposure so why complicate it? Just chase exactly what the hedgies (carbon based and silicon) are chasing, and don't try to think... this market hates any form of sophistication or thought. Noted.

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