A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Chairman of LCRP since January 2013

Thursday, May 30, 2013

If there is one word I can use to describe former Congresscritter and state legislator Mark Schauer, it's Yesman. He is the epidomy of a yesman. He did whatever Granholm, Obama, or Pelosi asked him to do. He talks a game and tries to sound moderate, but when the going gets tough, he goes leftist.

When CCW was an issue in the Michigan House in 99/00, he voted for every bad amendment - including making cars a criminal empowerment zone (that amendment failed), but then voted for the final bill just to say that he wasn't anti-2nd Amendment. Weasel move. He then cosponsored a major gun grab package with Gilda Jacobs that luckily went nowhere.

He supports every pro-abortion measure there is.

He voted for cap and trade in Michigan of all places trying to destroy our industry.

He voted for Obamacare.

He was fined $200000+ in campaign finance violations

He voted for Granholm's income tax increase.

He voted for the Obama Stimulus plan.

This guy would be the return of the Matt Millen of Governors and then some.

Friday, May 24, 2013

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Michigan's local governments would have the option
to put cameras at intersections to spot drivers running red lights under
proposed legislation in the state House.

A measure recently
introduced by Republican Rep. Wayne Schmidt of Traverse City would give
local communities the power to put cameras in place.

This isn't safety. This is about revenue enhancement. I learned that from experience. I despise these cameras from personal experience.

I got a $100 red light camera ticket from Chicago in the mail today. One
problem. I haven't driven in Illinois, let alone Chicago, in at least
12 years. I also have never driven my current wheels there. The
vehicle's license plate was off by one letter (Which I can tell even on
the red light camera picture sent to me). It was a different vehicle
from Michigan. I won't post pictures but you can bet your arse that I'll
be sending a nice file to Sh-tcago (gave up swearing for Lent) to
contest this piece of trash. They got the wrong car.

I'm even more insulted that they sent a picture of a foreign car to me
and claim that it was my car. Anyone that knows me knows I drive Fords,
not Scion. My family would disown me otherwise The picture of the
vehicle was a Scion XD. I drive a older truck based Ford Explorer. There
is a big difference. M and N are different letters. Fords and Scions
are different vehicles. One quick license plate cross check should have
handled that.

I got a letter last week with the ticket dismissed. I would have gone to Chicago to fight this if I had to. This is guilty till proven innocent measure. For one thing, cars don't run red lights. Drivers do. These cameras don't send pictures to drivers, but to license plates they think they have. Sometimes, they get the wrong one. I know! I know! In order to beat this ticket, I had to:

A. Prove that I wasn't the owner of the car that ran the light.
B. Prove that the license plate wasn't of my car.
C. Send the information taking time out of my day to fight something I didn't do.
D. Cough up about $10 in postage and printing costs (Certified mail to make sure they received it).

That is because people didn't read a license plate properly, nor check which VEHICLE is licensed on the DMV, although they did enough work to find an address to try and get their $100, that's for sure.

If a cop is there instead of a camera, they can ding the driver. They will see who drove the car and give the driver a ticket whether or not, it is the car's owner. Cameras don't do that and open things up for a long list of abuses.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

2014 Update - Hansen Clarke came in on filing deadline wanting his old job back. He's got two strong opponents both from Southfield in Rudy Hobbs and Brenda Lawrence. Interesting last name for the Republican here. I wonder if Christina is related to John. That's not all that common of a last name.

Notes -West Bloomfield reprecincted. District has about 45% of Detroit. Detroit went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all that need to be said.

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th districts have odd shapes. This district starts in SW Detroit, moves NE to pick up the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods, goes west along 8 mile area to Royal Oak Twp and Oak Park in Oakland County, Picks up Southfield and Farmington Hills, and then goes up to Pontiac.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

Detroit it what it is and even a Brian Banks, Mel Reynolds, or Rod Blagojevich would win this district because of it. The Grosse Pointes are once again screwed by geography. GP Park leans democrat with Detroiters moving there, but the others are still solid, for now. Farms and Shores are strongholds. Woods is solid. Grosse Pointe (City) is closer. Harper Woods used to be competitive, but it’s now 50/50 black/white and safe dem. Hamtramck is 80%+ Dem every election. Northwest of Detroit is Royal Oak Township. It’s the most democrat part of the state by percentage every election – even more so as Oak Park annexed the “whiter” part of the township. The vote count was 1515 to 5 for Obama. 99.28%. Oak Park and Southfield are 80%+ Dem and black majority. Southfield almost cracked 90% dem as the white population drops further. Oak Park is slightly less democrat with its Orthodox Jewish minority that will vote for some Republicans. (McCain won a precinct – Romney MIGHT have won that although Oak Park reprecincted since then so we don’t know) . Lathrup Village might as well be Southfield for election purposes.

West of there is Farmington Hills. It was competitive up through 2002. A lot of the old Reagan coalition there moved west. Rocky Raczkowski was the last Republican to win there for state rep. A lot of Southfield moved there. Romney improved on McCain, but only won two precincts here. North of there is West Bloomfield. It’s safe democrat as well at the top of the ticket, but sometimes winnable downticket with the right candidate. It’s largely Jewish, but there’s also sizable Chaldean, Asian, Polish, and black populations. It’s been consistently (outside of 08) 55-56% Dem.

Keego Harbor, Orchard Lake, and Sylvan Lake are there as bridges between West Bloomfield and Pontiac. Orchard Lake is safe R, Sylvan Lake leans R, and Keego Harbor leans D. They are small areas that don’t significantly affect the district. Pontiac is a democrat stronghold and always has been. It’s mostly black, but has significant Latin American and poor white populations. All go dem. It was 80% dem, and now is almost 90% dem.

Overall, the big key here will be the primary and the regional vote. Hansen Clark did not have a united Detroit. He won it, but Lawrence, Peters, and others got their share of votes there. Peters won in Southfield and Pontiac, which are more open to voting for whites than much of Detroit (outside Downtown, SW, and Far West side). I expect a very large primary for this district with Peters running for Senate.

Update 2014 - Conyers is running again and facing Horace Sheffield in the primary. I'm not sure which one is worse here. Conyers is at least old and will be gone soon. At least people will have a choice here.

Notes – Dearborn Heights reprecincted. District has about
55% of Detroit. Detroit is slightly over 50% of the district votes. Detroit
went 96% and 97% for Obama so I didn’t break down the precincts. I took the
entire city vote and split it 55/45.

I think even those who don’t follow politics at all know
that this district is safe democrat. It’s City of Detroit based. That’s all
that need to be said.

This district is a VRA district which requires it to have a
black majority. That’s one of the big reasons why the 13th and 14th
districts have odd shapes. This district is solely in Wayne County and covers a
path between Inkster and Romulus to Ecorse and River Rouge through Detroit.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

Starting on the SW end, Romulus is the home of Detroit Metro
Airport. It’s safe democrat and has been as long as I remember. It’s long had a
large black population, but it’s close to 50/50 today. It’s gone over 70% dem the last three
elections, lately 78 and 79%. Obama did better here in 2012 than 2008. Next
door is Wayne and Westland. Those are both heavily union, either UAW or Airport
workers. They are both about 17% black, and in Westland’s case, heavily
increasing. East of Westland is Inkster and Garden City. Garden City is still
overwhelmingly white and union. It’s consistently 54-58% democrat. Inkster is
and has been majority black. It’s gone from 88% dem in 04 to 94% dem today. Romney
did worse than McCain in all of these areas.

East of there is Dearborn Heights. Most of it is in this
district. Romney did worse than McCain here as well. It’s white, but less so
than it was, especially as the Parkland and Warrendale section’s of Detroit are
emptying out. North of there is Redford.
Redford Twp has gone from being competitive and “conservadem” as recently as
the 90’s to 57% Kerry, 66% Obama 08, and 70% Obama 2012. Migration. A lot of
the Irish and Polish there are moving out, and a lot of Detroiters are moving
it. It was 28% black in 2010. It’ll be black majority by the end of the decade.

South of Detroit is Melvindale, Ecorse, and River Rouge. All
three have long been democrat strongholds due to both labor and minorities. Ecorse
and River Rouge are majority minority with a black plurality. Obama did better
in all three areas in 2012 than in 2008. Melvindale went 72% for Obama, and the
others went about 90%.

While Conyers runs slightly behind the ticket, this seat is
likely his until he retires or dies in office. He survived a credible primary
opponent in Glenn Anderson despite Monica Conyers being behind bars. He’s safe.
There’s a long bench for this district if it opens up for the dems.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Update 2014: This is going to be an ugly race. Bentivolio has a tough primary against Trott. After that, the winner, likely wounded, will be facing a dem. Hopefully the dems all beat the hell out of each other.

Notes – Clawson, Rochester Hills, and West Bloomfield
reprecincted which makes this tough to get good numbers. Northville (Wayne
County Portion) either reported with the Township or their numbers in 2012 didn’t
get posted. Clawson is slightly dem. Rochester Hills is R. The portion of West
Bloomfield in this district is competitive compared to the portion in MI-14
that is staunchly democrat. I took a guess on 08 and 04 with those areas, and
skipped the Wayne County part of Northville (city) in 2012 assuming it was
reported with the township.

This district received a lot of attention in 2012. Thad
McCotter, then incumbent ran for president. He then dropped and ran for
congress. His campaign staff was caught in a major petition fraud scandal and
McCotter resigned and did not run for re-election. The old district elected (on
November) democrat David Curson to replace him for a short period. Kerry
Bentivolio was the only name on the ballot. He beat write-ins, lost to Curson,
and beat Syed Taj. At first, I thought there would be name bias against Taj due
to some campaign experiences I’ve had. There wasn’t really. The congressional
race generally went similar to the top of the ticket. The old district had some
strong democrat areas no longer in the district.

For the map, I’ll use the same color code, staying with the
Dark Blue for 70% d areas that I used in Districts 5, 6, and 7

70%+Dem – Dark Blue

60%-69.99% - Blue

55%-59.99% - Slate Blue

50%-54.99% - Light Sky Blue

Less than 50% - Gold

R wins:

70%+Rep – Firebrick

60-69.99% - Red

55-59.99% - Orange Red

50-54.99% - Salmon

Less than 50% - Yellow

Tie – Spring Green

2012 (approx on map)

2008

2004

Starting at the southwest corner is the Wayne County portion
of the map. That big blue spot in the SW is Canton Township (part of it on the
map). Canton is becoming a trouble spot for it. It’s been tough for awhile, but
it flipped big in 2008 and 2012. The
dems broke 55% here twice after Bush winning it twice. Part of it is the
growing (and voting) Indian population, along with some migration from Westland
and Ypsi/Ann Arbor. While there’s a lot of money in Canton, there’s also a bit
of a populist streak here compared to Northville or Plymouth Twp’s next door.
Some work has to be done here so that Canton is not the next Westland when it
comes to voting.

Northeast of there is Livonia. Livonia is the largest city
in the district and it’s usually consistent. Outside of the bad year of 2008,
the Republicans have gotten in the low 50’s in the city rather consistently. It
is a little more social conservative than most suburbs in that region, but also
a little more populist than next door Plymouth/Northville. It’s largely white
ethnic Catholic. Thad McCotter fit the district.

West of there is Plymouth and Northville. The townships are
safe republican. Even McCain won them, although Bush got over 60% in Northville
Twp. Romney got 58% in Northville Twp and 56% (Bush 57%) in Plymouth Twp. The
city of Plymouth swings and votes for both R’s and D’s. Bush won it twice
(barely). McCain was crushed. Romney lost it narrowly. I’m not sure how Romney
did in the city of Northville on the Wayne County side, but it usually goes R,
2008 notwithstanding. Romney won it with 52% which is a far cry from Bush’s 55%+.
That’s due to Canton being the 2nd to Livonia in population in this
district.

North of Livonia is Farmington. Farmington Hills surrounds
90% of Farmington, but is in the 14th District. Farmington was
consistently republicans as recently as 2005 or so. Romney did worse than
McCain here by percentage and almost equal in votes. Bush’s 51% is now Romney’s
42.02%. Migration.

North of Northville Twp is Novi and the Oakland part of
Northville which is slightly more R than the Wayne County part of Northville
(City). Novi is a major danger zone and area of concern right now. If you told
me 8 years ago that Obama would win Novi in 2008 and that Romney would get 50%
there, I’d laugh in your face. It was 57% in 2004 and was 60%+ not long before
that. It was a base city. Now it may become the next Farmington Hills.
Migration is part of it, and so is the immigrant Indian population voting
heavily democrat.

North of there is Wixom, Walled Lake, and Commerce Township.
Commerce Township has stayed solid R. Romney’s 58% was just shy of Bush’s 59%.
With West Bloomfield to the East, that’s a township to keep watch on. It hasn’t
gone in the direction of Novi or Farmington Hills as least for now. Walled Lake
is and was a swing area for a long time. Gore, Bush, Obama, and Romney won it.
Wixom moved heavily dem after the Ford plant closed. One precinct is the major
problem. It’s full of cheap apartments. A lot of the apartments were rented to
commuted auto workers who needed a place to crash. After the plant closed, they
all opened up to new residents. These apartments here aren’t exactly high
dollar. Romney won three of the four precincts in Wixom, one by nearly 2-1. The
largest precinct he lost1185-378.

North of there is White Lake Twp. It’s safe R, although it
dropped below 60% Bush got 61% here to Romney’s 58%. Along the western tier next
to Novi, Wixom, Commerce, and White Lake are the most Republican parts of the
district. Lyon Township, South Lyon, Milford Twp, and Highland Twp. Those areas
aren’t much different than Livingston County in its politics. Those are 60%+
areas usually outside of the City of South Lyon which usually is still 55% or
more R.

East of Commerce Twp is West Bloomfield Twp. Most of it,
including the areas that make is solidly D, are in the 14th
district. The part here is competitive and sometimes goes R. Romney won the
parts here. North of there is competitive Waterford Twp. Bush won it twice, but
it wasn’t won easily. It’s historically blue collar white and pro-union. Part
of that is still there. There are also some affluent areas in Waterford due to
the lakefronts. There’s also some movement from Pontiac also affecting the
area. Romney won it, but barely broke 50%. Bush did much better here in 04,
although he struggled in 2000 here.

Lake Angelus next door has only about 250 voters and it’s
80%+R unless you’re McCain. Auburn Hills is another story. It was formerly
Republican despite Oakland University until Pontiac moved there. Now it’s 25%+
black and went more dem in 2012 than 2008. Migration. East of Auburn Hills is
Rochester Hills. It’s mostly in the 8th. Part of it is a bridge to
Troy. Troy leans R, but not like it was. Bush got 56% there. Romney got 52%.
Troy has a large Indian population. Like Novi, if you told me it would go dem
in 2008, I’d laugh in your face. I’m not laughing. Clawson south of Troy is
tougher territory. It went for Gore, Bush, and Obama twice. I don’t know a lot of
Clawson except driving through it.

Lastly, to the west of Troy is Birmingham and Bloomfield
Hills. Birmingham is probably the most socially liberal somewhat republican
area in the state. It’s very affluent and well known for its money. Romney did
very well here, doing slightly better than Bush in 2004. McCain cratered here.
Bloomfield Hills is more conservative, and was Romney’s best area outside of
Sylvan Lake. He got 66%, running ahead of Bush here as well. When you hear
about “moderate Oakland County”, this is the area that is usually described.

Overall, this is a district to watch. Can Republicans stop
the bleeding here in Canton, Novi, and Troy? That’s a must, if Republicans are
going to be competitive in the state, and it’s a must if this district wants to
avoid hitting another Gary Peters type in 2008. Commerce Twp is also one to
watch just due to geography, as is Livonia (East side in particular).

Another thing to watch here is a possible primary.
There is a strong R bench in this district, and Bentivolio was not expected to
be a congressman. He had the guts and good fortune to get his petitions in and
have his name on the ballot in the primary. When McCotter was knocked out,he was it, and he won in the general against
a weak opponent. Will one of the Oakland Establishment run? If there’s a nasty
primary, will the other side vote for the losing candidate or skip the race?
This is going to be a real interesting district to watch in 2016.