Economic conundrum laid out at symposium

SANDESTIN — Economic activity across the nation has recovered to pre-recession levels, with the country’s gross domestic product reaching about $15 trillion.

That was part of the message delivered Monday by Rick Harper, executive director of the office of Economic Development and Engagement at the University of West Florida.

The problem, Harper said, is that the country is able to produce that amount of output with 4½ million fewer workers than before the recession, and the challenge now is finding jobs for those people.

“The question becomes, What can we do to ensure those people are productive?” he said. “Unemployment is currently flat, but for the next several years … it’s unlikely to be below 7.6, 7.8 percent, and that’s a challenge.”

Harper was speaking at the Gulf Power Economic Symposium, the largest economic development seminar in Northwest Florida. This is the symposium’s 16th year.

More than 560 people attended Monday’s program, a new record for the two-day event. The symposium continues at 8:30 a.m. today with guest speakers Gray Swoope, secretary of commerce for Enterprise Florida, and a panel discussion on making Northwest Florida more competitive in developing business.

Harper said Santa Rosa, Okaloosa and Walton counties have each had various levels of success in recovering from what he called “the great recession.”

He said Santa Rosa County was not as badly impacted and has shown consistent job growth since the recovery started.

Okaloosa County showed an exceptional recovery following the recession related to the most recent Base Realignment and Closure and the bed down of the 7th Special Forces, Harper said. However, job growth has trailed off during the last several months.

Walton County, Harper said, has returned to the peak employment levels the county experienced during the real estate boom.

Harper also spoke about challenges facing the national economy, one of the chief ones being related to healthcare costs and rising labor costs.

Harper said wages are not rising, but labor costs are rising because employers have to pay more for their workers’ healthcare and healthcare costs are rising at double the rate of the gross domestic product.

“That means that every potential dollar of wage increase over the next three decades, if healthcare costs continue on their current trend, will be eaten up by healthcare cost increases,” Harper said. “What we’ll have is an unchanged wage rate coupled with a very expensive healthcare plan.”