Earnest Finns say today's EU summit in Lahti, north of Helsinki, will zero in with icy precision on two key issues: external energy relations, meaning Russia's willingness to keep Europe's lights on; and innovation policy, meaning Europe's cutting-edge commercial competitiveness or rather, six years after the Lisbon technology summit, the continuing lack of it.

But the one-day gathering will side-step bigger and more intractable problems facing the EU, such as Turkey's shredding membership hopes, institutional reform in the wake of last year's constitutional collapse, security and enlargement in the western Balkans, and growing political strains between "new" (eastern) and "old" (western) Europe.

The likelihood of all that being put off to December's full-court summit in Brussels or to the German presidency, which begins in January, or even later, is fuelling suggestions that the European project has lost its way or actually ground to a halt.

"I do not subscribe to the view that Europe is stuck," said José Manuel Barroso, the commission president, in his Hugo Young Lecture in London this week. But neither is there much evidence of forward momentum. Like Mr Micawber, the David Copperfield character whose schemes invariably came to grief, the EU keeps hoping something will turn up.

It may be quite a wait. Decisive political movement will not come until after next May's elections in France, said Denis MacShane MP, the former Europe minister. "Everyone's waiting for the next French president," he said. Yet regardless of the outcome of that divisive left-right contest, Europe's problems remained formidable.

"Merkel is bogged down in domestic problems. Eastern Europe's leaders are in a complete mess. There's not a great deal of enthusiasm for Bulgarian and Romanian accession - people are holding their noses and gritting their teeth. The French have behaved abominably towards Turkey. The [EU] constitution is dead but nobody's prepared to say so. It's not a happy ship," he said.

Internal dissension spells external weakness, a lesson that will not be lost on Russian president Vladimir Putin when he discusses EU calls for enhanced energy sector cooperation and lower gas prices over dinner in Lahti tonight. He is also less likely to heed European concern over authoritarian trends inside Russia, typified by Moscow's pressurising of energy-dependent Georgia and Ukraine and the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya. The widening gap between EU pretensions and performance also invites curled lips in Washington, although they hide it better.

Graham Brady MP, shadow minister for Europe, said: "There's a very strong case for saying Europe is not only stuck but going in the wrong direction. On current trends the EU's share of global wealth could be cut by half in the next 30 years. But six years after Lisbon, at best nothing has happened and if anything there is more regulation. More decision-making is being taken away from the people."

Ms Merkel would seek to revive debate over the constitution and institutional reform in a "Berlin Declaration" marking the European Economic Community's (as it was) 50th anniversary, Mr Brady said. But rather than pursue greater integration, the EU should concentrate on greater flexibility.

Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform said the prevalent idea of a rudderless EU was exaggerated. "Look at what's been achieved: a single market, a single currency, enlargement, an internal security policy, an external foreign policy. Absolutely, institutional reform is needed, but most governments seem happy to jog along for now and make adjustments.

"There is a growing consensus that there will be no more enlargement until institutions are sorted out," she said. But a train-wreck next month over Turkey's membership application would probably be avoided - by an agreement to continue talks on membership chapters unrelated to the unresolved customs union dispute with Cyprus.

"Never underestimate the EU's ability to muddle through," Ms Barysch said. "And don't believe a few stubborn people on a Mediterranean island will dictate such an important decision to Europe."