I´m a little bit concerned about the early voters (almost half of the sample), where they are tied. But as long as Obama maintains a 20% edge among election day voters it doesn´t really matter.

There are no election day voters in Oregon

Well, I guess there technically could be...but you know what I mean!

This number should probably concern Obama folks a little, especially considering his underperformance in he WA primary. We'll see.

I think there will be more interest in a primary that actually matters than one that didn't.

The Oregon media has been weirdly disinterested in this election. I guess it depends on how complacent voters are getting. I wonder how blitzed he ad market is getting. Obama would be wise to put up his "send in your ballots now" ads soon.

I wasn't saying it's very meaningful, just that it would be better news if he were leading by 20 in the other subgroup.

Check out the difference between the voters who have already voted and those who are likely to. One explanation could be young people and the other could be a bump from NC and IN. Also more than half the people have already voted.

Check out the difference between the voters who have already voted and those who are likely to. One explanation could be young people and the other could be a bump from NC and IN. Also more than half the people have already voted.

Check out the difference between the voters who have already voted and those who are likely to. One explanation could be young people and the other could be a bump from NC and IN. Also more than half the people have already voted.

I think you're mixing up the two columns.

Yeah my bad only 43% of people have voted. But that is so damn close, I really wonder if it is representative. But Obama cleans up among likely voters, I guess the ones who havent mailed theirs yet? This is a weird primary for sure.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

The super delegates won't move for a bare victory, especially after WV and if there is a blowup in KY.

If it is not a decisive win, the super delegates will not be decisive.

I am, however, happy to note the amount of bar lowering I've done for Obama.

Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." - Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

Yes, I too think Obama will win by more than 5 points, but why does he "need" it? He's going to clinch the pledged delegate majority no matter what and there's barely anything left to vote. The superdelegates aren't going to swarm to Hillary in droves because she managed to hold Obama to a 4 point victory in Oregon.

The super delegates won't move for a bare victory, especially after WV and if there is a blowup in KY.

If it is not a decisive win, the super delegates will not be decisive.

I am, however, happy to note the amount of bar lowering I've done for Obama.

Obama will win a majority of pledged delegates on May 20. Many superdelegates have already pledged to support whoever wins the majority of pledged delegates, so he gets a good chunk, no matter what. After that and the remaining primaries he only needs about 30 or so more, which he'll certainly get before Hillary gets her hundreds that she needs.