TUCSON and SOUTHERN ARIZONA

Transcription

1 TUCSON and SOUTHERN ARIZONA End of Year Housing Report (52)

2 217 End of Year Housing Report SALES & INVENTORY Housing market trends For the overall real estate market in Tucson and southern Arizona, the Seller s Market conditions continue. The inventory of homes for sale continued to decline in 217, while sales increased further. The shortage of listings has not been a drag on home sales, however it has contributed to a 1% increase in median price. This has created a very competitive environment, especially at lower price points. At the higher end of the market, there is still an oversupply of homes. We expect continued strength in the real estate market in 218. TUCSON Closed Residential Sales +3% from last year Active Listings* -4% from last year TUCSON RESIDENTIAL Home Sales and Listing Inventory 2, Closed Sales Active Listings 18, 12, 16, 14, 1, Closed Sales 12, 1, 8, 8, 6, Active Listings 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, Green Valley % Change from 216 Closed Residential Sales +12% Active Listings* -39% Sierra vista % Change from 216 Closed Residential Sales +9% Active Listings* -1% * Active Listings reflect the percent of change from December 217 vs December 216. Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ, GVSAHMLS and SAMLS on 1/4/218. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

3 217 End of Year Housing Report PRICING & AFFORDABILITY TUCSON MEDIAN SALES PRICE The median price of sold homes in Tucson was $23, in December 217 and $193, for all of 217. Prices have recovered to January 28 levels and are 9% recovered from the market s peak of $226,465 in November 25. $25, Jan 28: $23,5 Dec 216: $176, Dec 217: $23, $2, $15, $1, MARKET PEAK: Nov 5: $226,465 $5, $ Area Median Sales Price in 217 % Change from 216 Tucson $193, +1% Green Valley $163, +5% Sierra Vista $142,5 +1% Trend In 217, Tucson ranked MOST AFFORDABLE Large City in the U.S. Source: Inc.com Record High Optimism for Home Financing 59% of consumers believe it is easy to get a mortgage.* Average FICO scores on closed loans have remained lower in recent years with current average of 724. For all your mortgage or refinancing needs, contact Long Mortgage Company Jul-12 Oct-12 Average FICO Score on All Closed Loans Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Source: Ellie Mae * Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, June 217 Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ, GVSAHMLS and SAMLS on 1/4/218. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

4 217 End of Year Housing Report MARKET CONDITIONS Tucson Months Of Inventory Think of Tucson as a tale of 3 markets. The lower price range, especially under $35,, has a very tight supply of inventory and high buyer demand. In a Seller s Market like this, buyers need to move quickly and offer competitively. The range from $35, to $6, is more balanced between supply and demand. In the luxury market, $8, and above, there is still an oversupply of homes for sale as compared to buyer needs. Though sales were up slightly, luxury sellers need to price very competitively to attract from the limited pool of buyers. Months of Inventory Tucson Market Conditions by price Seller ( < 6 months ) Balanced ( 6 months ) Balanced Market Buyer ( > 6 months ) $ $125, $225, $35, $7, Price Range $1-299,999 $3,-499,999 $5,-799,999 GREEN VALLEY 3 Month Trend MOI Market Condition 2.3 Seller 6.7 Slightly Buyer 11.8 Buyer SIERRA VISTA 3 Month Trend MOI Market Condition 4.4 Slightly Seller 8. Buyer 6.5 Balanced Year over Year Change in Closed Home Sales Many areas of metro Tucson experienced a growth in home sales in 217 versus prior year. Some outlying areas saw a slight decrease. Market conditions can vary considerably by location and price, contact me for real estate information about your neighborhood Percentage of Change Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ, GVSAHMLS and SAMLS on 1/4/ month trend in months of inventory is the average closed sales and active listings date from 1/1/217 12/31/217. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

5 217 End of Year Housing Report LUXURY Tucson Luxury Housing Trends While there is still an abundant inventory of luxury homes, Tucson did see a slight increase in luxury sales in 217. More significantly, there was a 13% increase in the number of new sales contracts written, which may be a leading indicator for an increase in luxury closed sales in 218. Long Realty continues to be the predominate Tucson luxury real estate company with 59.7% market share. +1% Closed Sales 181 (217 vs 216) +1% Median Price $1,5, (217 vs 216) +13% 224 Luxury Properties went Under Contract (217 vs 216) +8% Months of Inventory Buyers Market (217 vs 216) Long Realty had 214 CLOSED LUXURY TRANSACTIONS, 181 more than the next company. Long Realty sold OVER $235 MILLION in total luxury sales, more than all other companies combined. Long Realty had the TOP 3 HIGHEST LISTING SALES of the year: $2,2, (sold 4/25) $2,, (sold 6/3) $1,995, (sold 9/28) Global Intentions for Residential Luxury Real Estate Long Realty is a member of the largest global luxury real estate brand, Luxury Portfolio International, providing a unique opportunity to reach an international market of buyers. As we look forward, the global market for luxury real estate is expected to pick up momentum with 14% of affluent consumers looking to buy and only 12% looking to sell. This trend is expected to increase over the next three years when 25% of global high net worth individuals expect to buy compared to only 17% looking to sell. 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 14% Next Year 12% Buy Sell 25% 17% Next 3 Years Source: Luxury Portfolio Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ, on 1/4/218. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

6 217 End of Year Housing Report RECENT TAX CHANGES RECENT TAX CHANGES There are a number of tax changes in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 217 that may affect homeowners and homebuyers. For a detailed list, visit Some changes include: Doubling the standard deduction, and repeal of personal exemptions Mortgage interest deduction on new loans, up to $75, loan limit Limit of $1, on deductions for state and local taxes Continues existing law on exclusion of gain on sale of a principal residence For homeowners that itemize their tax deductions, they can continue to benefit from real estate specific deductions including mortgage interest and property tax, within the limits as defined in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 217. There are many tax changes, and we recommend consulting a tax professional to learn more about your specific situation. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, below is the average impact to families and individuals in the U.S. of the tax changes in 219, by income range. What other impact may the tax changes have, relative to real estate? Deductions for property taxes, and state and local income taxes are now Income Range Average Income Average Tax Change capped at $1, per year. For homeowners that live in high property Less than $24,9 $14,6 -$1 tax states, this new limit may increase their cost of homeownership and $24,9 $41,91 $32,9 -$35 prompt some to consider moving to lower tax-base states, such as Arizona. $41,91 $66,85 $53,4 -$65 New corporate tax rate cuts may help $66,85 $112,16 $86,4 -$1,4 strengthen businesses. In addition, builders may use some of their tax $112,16 $239,6 $155,7 -$1,68 savings to reinvest in expanding new construction starts, catching up on $239,6 $67,9 $356,8 -$7,27 a shortage of inventory to meet a growing housing demand. $67,9 + $2,23,9 $1,75 Source: itep.org/finalgop-trumpbill Cheaper to Own vs Rent The tax changes have also refocused consumers on the fundamental benefits of homeownership: building equity in owning real estate and the pride of homeownership. In many markets, like ours, rental rates have continued to increase and with mortgage rates still attractive, it is cheaper to own through financing than rent. Contact me for more information. $1,5 $1, $5 Tucson Monthly Median Rent vs Monthly Median Principal & Interest Payment* Aug-16 Sept-16 Oct-16 Median Payment Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Median Rent May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Source: Trulia * Monthly payments based on a 5% down payment on a median priced home. Statistics based on information obtained from MLSSAZ, on 1/4/218. Information is believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

7 217 End of Year Housing Report COMMUNITY GROWTH & ACCOLADES COMMUNITY GROWTH AND ACCOLADES WHERE ARE BUYERS COMING FROM? Buyer interest in Arizona comes from across the country. California, the pacific northwest, upper Midwest, Texas, other southwest states and the northeast all show strong interest in Arizona real estate. U.S. WEBSITE TRAFFIC FOR ALL PRICE RANGES This heat map represents which states visit LongRealty.com the most. Number of Sessions 1,5, + 1, + 5, + 25, + 15, + 1, + 1, + Washington Oregon Nevada California Utah Arizona Montana Colorado New Mexico Texas Minnesota Iowa Wisconsin Missouri Indiana Illinois Michigan Ohio Georgia Virginia North Carolina Florida New York Pennsylvania WHY ARE THEY COMING TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA? For more information on these and other 217 Arizona accolades, visit In 217, Tucson ranked: #2 TOP AMERICA S BEST CITIES Report 1 Green Valley ranked: TOP 25 Best Places to RETIRE in TOP 1 Most POPULAR Cities to Live in 2 SIERRA VISTA ranked: #16 TOP Best Overall Place in AZ to RAISE A FAMILY 4 Business Accolades: Business Expansions in Southern Arizona created a total of Arizona Ranks Among Top States for Job Growth Increase Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum (turning 65 in 218), ranked Massachusetts New Jersey Source: Long Realty 4,5 New JOBS 5 Top US JOB GROWTH 6 #3 TOP ZOO in the US 7 Sources: 1. Resonance 2. Business Insider 3. Forbes 4. Herald Review 5. Mayor s 217 Progress Report 6. Bureau of Labor Statistics 7. USA Today

8 217 End of Year Housing Report ROSEY S MARKET INSIGHTS ROSEY S MARKET INSIGHTS Rosey Koberlein, Long Companies CEO While the net impact of tax changes is yet to be determined, the underlying fundamentals of strength in real estate remain. A strong demand for housing, a shortage of listing inventory, attractive mortgage rates, a strong stock market, a growing pool of retiring baby boomers, and promising growth in local employment will bring the local housing market continued sales and pricing growth in 218. In fact, the National Association of REALTORS forecasts that Arizona housing will see a 5.6% increase in 218. Coupled with baby boomer retirement, the number of Millennials purchasing homes will continue to grow, to an anticipated 43% of total home loans in 218. These dynamics create a demographic bookend of real estate activity. Baby Boomers Retiring As the baby boomer generation ages, the number of baby boomers retiring continues to grow, which will spark further movement to fair weather locations like our area. Arizona continues to rank as one of the premier retirement destinations. BABY BOOMERS OVER 65: (E) Source: Mauldin Economics 217 Improving Employment While Tucson job growth has lagged behind the US average in recent years, job growth is forecast to grow in 218 and beyond. Job stability and growth will bolster consumer confidence, which in turn spurs large ticket purchases such as real estate. Tucson Metro Statistical Area: Job Growth Tucson U.S Percent 6 Source: University of Arizona, Eller College of Management Annual Percent Change Shortage of Listing Inventory We remain in a Seller s Market due to low listing inventory and high demand. New construction activity in Tucson has not kept up with this demand. Thus we expect a continued shortage of inventory in 218 and Seller s Market conditions, especially at lower price points TUCSON BUILDING PERMITS Source: University of Arizona, Eller College of Management

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