Round Three AFL Picks

Friday night football this week heads to Sydney where the Swans take on Collingwood. Both sides enter this fixture having lost their opening games. It's not a disaster yet but for the loser of this game it starts becoming very hard to make the finals from 0-3.

That said we should expect a tough and tight contest. These two sides met in Round 1 last year at the SCG and the Swans obliterated the Pies that night. The Swans side that won by 80 points last year has ten different players this year. This week they will have their 5th debutant in three weeks. Kurt Tippett is a major out.

Collingwood have been fair without getting the chocolates. Their midfield continues to win plenty of ball but they have been very wasteful in front of goal. At half time last week they had kicked 5-10 and probably should have been four goals in front. Varcoe and Greenwood are the two inclusions this week and should offer a bit more experience and grunt to their side.

A desperate Swans side at home are always very hard to oppose but i'm not convinced their going so well to be running around a two to three goal fave. Take the Pies plus.

*Editors Note: Caution advised here - this was originally tipped up at the +20.5. The line has now moved to 11-13. Apologies for the delay in posting.

OTP Recommendation

Geelong and Melbourne both enter this Round 3 contest with 2-0 starts to the season. It should be a entertaining game on the fast track at Etihad where the Demons won in round 1 and where the Cats fell over the line last week against North.

Geelong can consider themselves very fortunate to win last week. The only time they hit the lead was in the last minute of the match. They got their on the back of their two superstars Dangerfield and Selwood.

Melbourne were also poor last week against Carlton trailing at 3/4 time before running out 22 point winners. They have lost their gun forward Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis to suspension for striking offences. Naturally these two A grade players being out will hurt the Dees. It's worth noting Hogan didn't kick a goal last week.

I'm going to go against the trend here and back the Demons to cover the 3 goal start. I am not convinced with Geelong at all. They beat up Fremantle in round 1 and we now know the Dockers are truly awful. Last week the Kangas exposed the Cats depth and lack of pace. The Cats have got Zac Smith back in this week after being smashed in the ruck in the opening rounds. Max Gawn will still be licking his lips and should provide the Melbourne Mids plenty of quality ball. Even with no Hogan and Lewis i think the Demons are a much better side than the side who took it to Geelong last week.

OTP Recommendation

Melbourne +18.52 at 1.93-2

FREMANTLE v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Fremantle are officially a shambles. Ross Lyon has swung the axe this week making six changes and righty so. Balic and Logue will make their debuts.Things don't get any easier for the Dockers this week when they play the Western Bulldogs.

Fremantle have managed just 73 and 56 points in their opening games. Their opponents have scored 115 and 145. It's ugly reading. The Dockers just can't transition the ball out of defence and their forwards are very poor with only Michael Walters posing a threat.

They won't get any respite from the 2016 Premiers who are to disciplined and well structured. It's hard to see Freo kicking much of a score here.