Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Democrats in the House and Senate want the $5.15-per-hour federal minimum wage, in place since 1997, to rise in 70-cent increments to $7.25 by January 1, 2009.

In arguing for the minimum-wage increase, Democrats are emphasizing that salaries for members of Congress have risen $31,600 during the time the minimum wage has been frozen.They complain that rising costs for gasoline, utilities, education and food have taken a chunk out of minimum-wage paychecks, which sometimes have to support entire families.Republicans in Congress have blocked numerous attempts to raise the minimum wage, saying it would backfire by causing small businesses to hire fewer entry-level workers.

But with Republican control of the House and Senate uncertain after the November congressional elections, some moderate Republicans have been joining with Democrats to support a minimum-wage increase.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

WASHINGTON – In an election year, it's a dream issue for the Democrats: The Republican-controlled Congress has not raised the federal minimum wage in nine years, despite strong public support for an increase. Wednesday, the Senate voted down a Democratic proposal to raise the minimum wage, by a vote of 52 to 46, and also struck down a Republican version that included provisions the Democrats consider poisonous.

At the current minimum wage, $5.15 an hour, a full-time worker would earn $10,712 a year, which is below the federal poverty line for a family of three. The Democrats propose an hourly increase of $2.10, and promise that if they take over control of Congress after the fall elections, they will raise the minimum wage on their first day in power.

The public backs the Democrats. An April survey by the Pew Research Center shows 83 percent of the public favors raising the minimum wage by $2. That figure includes 72 percent of Republicans, and 76 percent of people with household incomes of $75,000 or higher.

Congress fails in its duty when we do not probe, when we fail, we do not ask tough questions, and we fail when we do not debate the gate issues of our day. There is no issue more important than war. The war in Iraq is the defining issue on which this Congress and the administration will be judged. The American people want to see serious debate about serious issues from serious leaders. They deserve more than a political debate. This debate should transcend cynical attempts to turn public frustration with the war in Iraq into an electoral advantage. It should be taken more seriously than to simply retreat into focus-group tested buzz words and phrases like “cut and run,” catchy political slogans that debase the seriousness of war. War’s not a partisan issue, Mr. President. It should not be held hostage to political agendas. War should not be drug down into the political muck. America deserves better. Our men and women fighting and dying deserve better.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Texas is the 10th most Republican state, voting 20.8% more GOP than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Texas is Steady.
________________________________________________________Governor: This will probably be the most interesting race of the year. Budget woes, battles over school financing reform, and a contentious redistricting battle dropped Rick Perry's (R) approval ratings to 38% near the end of the 2005 legislative session but rebounded, largely due to his response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Republican State Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, a bitter political enemy of Perry, was expected to wage a primary challenge. However, according to recent news, Strayhorn will run as an independent, like the Jewish Cowboy Kinky Friedman, who has had remarkable success as of late. Former Congressman Chris Bell is the Democrat nominee.

*Due to the presence of two significant Independent candidates on the ballot here, I am factoring their polling into this formula, by subtracting a quarter of the combined Strayhorn-Friedman numbers from the Perry-Bell difference. For example, the Survey USA poll has Strayhorn at 25% and Friedman at 16%, resulting in a combined 41%. Subtracting a quarter of this total (10) from the Perry-Bell difference (24) gives 14. (And FYI, the number order is Perry-Bell-Strayhorn-Friedman.)
________________________________________________________Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) will easily win reelection.

Hutchison will win by 33.88%
________________________________________________________House: District 1: Prior to the 2003 redistricting all three seats which represented the current TX-1 had been held by Democrats for at least 12 years. Louis Gohmert (R) won the seat but received 7% less than President Bush in the same region. Bush's presence on the ballot was the only reason Gohmert won. Roger Owen (D) may win the district, and Donald Perkison (L) is also in the running. VERY WEAK GOP HOLD

District 2: Ted Poe (R) unseated Nick Lampson (D) after the mid-decade redistricting got him 55% of the vote in this competitive district, and will face a challenge from Gary Binderim (D), who has criticized Poe for his party-line votes. Poe also refused to turn in money he received from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Justo Perez (L) is also in the running. WEAK GOP HOLD

District 10: Michael McCaul (R) will face a unique and tough race this year in his district, which stretches from Austin to Houston. His main challenger is 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate Michael Badnarik, in addition to Ted Ankrum (D). WEAK GOP HOLD

District 17: Chet Edwards, the only Democrat to survive the Tom DeLay redistricting scheme, will probably keep his seat again, as he has enough Republican support to withstand any GOP challenger; this year it is Van Taylor (R). Also in the running is Guillermo Acosta (L). VERY, VERY WEAK DEM HOLD

District 22: Tom DeLay (R), under indictment on state and federal charges, will resign his seat in May. Nick Lampson (D), a formidable opponent who was ousted in the redistricting, is in the running, as is ex-Republican Steve Stockman (I). Lampson is less likely to win now than against DeLay, but there may be factors working in Lampson's favor. For one, he is well-known and liked in the district (which contains parts of his old district). The lingering resentment over DeLay and the GOP may also work to Lampson's advantage. Stockman could also draw voters that would otherwise vote Republican. Due to the rightward tendencies of this district, the district will likely remain Republican. VERY WEAK GOP HOLD

House District 1: Louis Gohmert Jr. (R) – 1st term
House District 2: Lloyd Poe (R) – 1st term
House District 3: Sam Johnson (R) – 8th term
House District 4: Ralph Hall (R) – 13th term
House District 5: Jeb Hensarling (R) – 2nd term
House District 6: Joe Barton (R) – 11th term
House District 7: John Culberson (R) – 3rd term
House District 8: Kevin Brady (R) – 5th term
House District 9: Al Green (D) – 1st term
House District 10: Michael McCaul (R) – 1st term
House District 11: K. Michael Conaway (R) – 1st term
House District 12: Kay Granger (R) – 5th term
House District 13: William Thornberry (R) – 6th term
House District 14: Ronald Paul (R) – 8th term
House District 15: Ruben Hinojosa (D) – 5th term
House District 16: Silvestre Reyes (D) – 5th term
House District 17: Chet Edwards (D) – 8th term
House District 18: Sheila Jackson Lee (D) – 6th term
House District 19: Randy Neugebaeur (R) – 2nd term
House District 20: Charlie Gonzalez (D) – 4th term
House District 21: Lamar Smith (R) – 10th term
House District 22: Tom DeLay (R) – 11th term (resigning)
House District 23: Henry Bonilla (R) – 7th term
House District 24: Kenny Marchant (R) – 1st term
House District 25: Lloyd Doggett (D) – 6th term
House District 26: Michael Burgess (R) – 2nd term
House District 27: Solomon Ortiz (D) – 12th term
House District 28: Henry Cuellar (D) – 1st term
House District 29: Gene Green (D) – 7th term
House District 30: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) – 7th term
House District 31: John Carter (R) – 2nd term
House District 32: Pete Sessions (R) – 5th term

Current political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 GOP
U.S. House: 21 GOP, 11 DEM

Monday, January 9, 2006

Illinois is the 8th most Democratic state, voting 12.1% more Dem than the national average.

Based on voting records since 1992, Illinois is trending Democrat.Governor: Rod Blagojevich is running for reelection. While Illinois is solidly blue, Blagojevich may not be safe, as his approval ratings are down and he has been accused of corruption. Challenging him is State Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka. Blago currently leads Topinka, but will be watched closely, as Topinka is part of that increasingly endangered species Republicanus Noncrazius.

Other CandidatesRandy StufflebeamRich WhitneyScott Summers

Governor (incumbent running)

Polling Company

Date

Blagojevich

Topinka

Margin

Chicago Tribune

9/7-10

45%

33%

12%

Rasmussen

9/7

48%

36%

12%

Factor

Numbers

Raw Value

Weight

Factor

Poll Average

12 + 12

12

75%

9

Approval

44-52

-8

15%

1.2

Partisan leaning

42-24 DEM

-18

10%

1.8

Blagojevich will win by 9.6%

Senate: Senior Senator Dick Durbin is up for reelection in 2008 and junior Senator Barack Obama is up for reelection in 2010.House: District 6: Henry Hyde is retiring. Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth has won the Dem nomination; on the GOP side is State Sen. Peter Roskam. This district in the western Chicago burbs has been trending less Republican in recent years. Also in the running is Brian Costin.

House (open seat)

Pundit

Prediction

Numerical Value

Charlie Cook

Toss-Up

0

Larry Sabato

Toss-Up

0

Cong Quarterly

Toss-Up

0

Election Predictions

Very Weak GOP

2.5

Blue In Texas

Very Weak GOP

2.5

Polling Company

Date

Duckworth

Roskam

Margin

Constituent Dynamics

8/27-29

47%

46%

1%

Factor

Numbers

Raw Value

Weight

Factor

Pundit Average(one poll)

0+0+0+2.5+2.5

1

70%

0.7

Poll Average

-1

-1

20%

0.2

Partisan leaning

PVI: +3 GOP

3

7%

0.21

Money advantage

1.49:1 Roskam

1.49

2%

0.03

Statewide incumbent approval

Blagojevich 44-52

-8

1%

0.08

Other issues

None

Roskam will win by 0.82%

District 8: This is the race to watch in Illinois, with a highly Republican district represented by a Democrat, Melissa Bean, who won only because of her unpopular, geriatric predecessor Phil Crane. Her vote for CAFTA may also hurt, as the unions are rallying behind Bill Scheurer. However, there are some things that may help her: the incumbent factor, Bush's abysmal poll numbers in Illinois, and her incredible fundraising. David McSweeny was neck-and-neck with Bean in funds, but spent a lot of it in the crowded primary. Bean also has support from most of the country club Republicans in the district as well as an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce.

House District 1: Bobby Rush - 7th term
House District 2: Jesse Jackson, Jr. - 6th term
House District 3: Daniel Lipinski - 1st term
House District 4: Luis Gutierrez - 7th term
House District 5: Rahm Emanuel - 2nd term
House District 6: Henry Hyde - 16th term (retiring)
House District 7: Danny Davis - 5th term
House District 8: Melissa Bean - 1st term
House District 9: Jan Schakowsky - 4th term
House District 10: Mark Steven Kirk - 3rd term
House District 11: Jerry Weller - 6th term
House District 12: Jerry Costello - 10th term
House District 13: Judy Biggert - 4th term
House District 14: Dennis Hastert - 10th term
House District 15: Tim Johnson - 3rd term
House District 16: Donald Manzullo - 7th term
House District 17: Lane Evans - 12th term (retiring)
House District 18: Ray Lahood - 6th term
House District 19: John Shimkus - 5th termCurrent political makeup
U.S. Senate: 2 DEM
U.S. House: 10 DEM, 9 GOP