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Monsoon Low likely in North Bay

Upper Air Circulation (UAC) over Northwest Bay of Bengal & the dipping of Eastern end of the Monsoon Trough into the Bay, a fresh Monsoon low is likely to form over North Bay in the next 24-36 hrs. This disturbance will cause rainfall along parts of Odisha, North AP coast and Chhattisgarh. Heavy rainfall may also occur over one or two regions of Northeastern states and Andaman islands.

Due to this synoptic activity, possibility of evening thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over North coastal districts of TN including Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and interior districts of Vellore. Other districts of TN may see dry weather conditions.

Chennai: Warm day likely with max temp expected to touch 35-36c. Thundershowers to occur in and around the city & suburbs by evening

Massive dryness expected in September. OLR anomaly, Temp at gradient level, Tropical waves forecast, NAO likely to become negative, Positive IOD emergence, ELNINO more stronger. The wave patterns looks weak across the month. MJO which is expected in the mid of the month now looks bleak. Rainfall across the country not looking positive in the first half of the month.

Even though the Positive IOD favors entire country during ELNINO, this is too late for it to emerge. This Positive IOD should have atleast emerged by first week of August for monsoon to get revival.

September Outlook for entire country.
The first week of September from 01st to 06th, East coast and some parts of adjoining central parts of the states likely to get some wet spells.

Weak MJO in Phase 2 and 3 between 17th and through end of the month, this will bring widespread rain across the country but not expected to wipe of the deficits.

From 20th September, once again Eastern Coast of India likely to experience wet spells, it might extend to central also until month end.

Chennai Outlook:
Chennai has lesser number of day for rainfall in September.
September 03rd and 04th has very good chance for TS.
Then from 19th to 25th. During the gaps we might see some dry days or some light rain, nothing much is expected beyond the above said dates.

SWM Withdrawal likely to begin from first week of September from NW India and progress according to normal dates.

Exactly….tropical convection associated with synoptic scale LOWS peaks between 3 and 6 am, in association with the destabilizing phase in which the day time absorbed heat radiates back increasing instability….

The current MJO likely to proceed with same weak mode, this will not allow ER to progress into IO. However MJO not going to create and impact over the country. Only Srilanka might get some wet weather.

The monsoon performance is not always dependent on El Nino conditions, which are currently strong but then there are is a month-and-a-half left for the season to end and rains are expected during the monsoon’s withdrawal phase, said R R Kelkar, former director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi.
Speaking at an interaction organized by the Pune Union of Working Journalists here on Monday, Kelkar said that an analysis of past rainfall data shows that the possibility of two consecutive droughts is only 3%.
“However, IMD had never used the word ‘drought’ to describe the ongoing season, but associated the deficient rainfall to El Nino,” he said.
He added that El Nino cycle does not occur every year, but occurs every two to seven years.
Kelkar said that a study has been undertaken on the performance of the southwest monsoon between 1871 and 2014.
“The study showed that as many as 19 years were abundant monsoon years for India, 24 were drought years and 101 years were of a normal monsoon. This means that in any year, the probability of a drought is 17% and that of a normal monsoon is 83%,” he said, adding that of the 19 abundant monsoon years in the country, eight years were associated with the La Nina phenomenon. However, it is not necessary that every abundant monsoon year is a La Nina year too, he said.
He added that of the 24 drought years in India, 13 were El Nino years. “But El Nino is not the sole reason behind every drought in the country.
In addition, observations from earlier drought years indicate that 1904-05, 1965-66 and 1986-87, were years of two consecutive droughts. This shows that the probability of two consecutive droughts is just 3%.http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/Possibility-of-two-consecutive-droughts-is-only-3-Kelkar/articleshow/48660912.cms

A Study carried out on the increase in post Monsoon TCs intensity in BOB

(a) The locations and tracks of storms in the BoB for the period 1981–2010. The number of storms in each category is provided in the table overlaid.The numbers outside the parentheses indicate storm count for the entire BoB, while the numbers inside the parentheses indicate number of storms that formed to the east of 90◦E. (b) The ratio between PDI of storms while in major TC-phase (MTC) to the total PDI. The correlation of this ratio with time, indicated in the figure, is statistically significant at the 95% level. (c) Histogram of the mean maximum wind speed during MTC-phase for each MTC. Values of maximum wind speed averaged during MTC-phase for each MTC and over each 15 year period are shown. (d) The PDF of intensification tendencies for the two 15 year periods, 1996–2010 and 1981–1995, and the difference between them, with error bars indicated. For the 1981–1995 period, no bar is shown for the >6 category since there were no storms with an intensification tendency of more than 6 m s−1 per 36 h.

1997 north east monsoon too good for tamilnadu than 2005…
1997-810mm(TN)
2005- 773mm(TN)
1997 super excess for tamilnadu and chennai
2005 super excess only for chennai and excess for tamilnadu
overall 1997 good than 2005
note: 1997 elnino with positive iod

A deficient August is likely to be followed by a forgettable September to round off this year’s South-West monsoon when it retreats fully from mainland India in another 35 days.

October could spring a nasty surprise in terms of drier than normal weather, according to a long-term forecast issued on Tuesday by the APEC Climate Centre based in Busan, South Korea.

Month-wise outlook: The month-wise break-up of expected rain for the four months of September, October, November and December projected by the South Korean forecaster is as follows:
September:
Excess – Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh
Normal- Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Northeast Rajasthan, South Tamil Nadu and Kerala
Deficient – rest of Northwest India and South Peninsula and entire Central India.

The Real Style Of SWM is Missing In This SWM 2015.
The Damaal Dumeel Rumbling Thunder Is What I Meant
We Didn’t Get One 50mm+ Rainfall This SWM – 2k15
Lightning Show Was There But Not Many Days Only On AUG 4
Squall.My Question Is? Is This Because Of El~Nino Less Rains
And Less Thunders..??

our Damaal Dumeel Rumbling Thunder will come from west only..this year entire west coast is under deficiency..kerala -31%, coastal KA – 27%..we got more rains from the bob convections till now ..i.e from north,,So this s due to elnino..Elnino gives more to north/ne