As Marvel’s biggest film yet continues to dominate the market, this weekend will welcome a few more new releases aiming for a variety of audiences. Will the headlining opener be able to unseat the reigning weekend champ, though?

PROS:

Avengers: Endgameis likely to begin stabilizing its legs after the typical second weekend drop-off common to mega-openers. Infinity War itself eased 46 percent in its third frame one year ago, which was also Mother’s Day weekend.

Detective Pikachu should benefit from both its multi-generation appeal and the fact that it provides a shorter, PG-rated, family-friendly option for parents with kids too young for the Marvel epic. Final pre-release tracking positions interest comparable to recent films like Shazam!, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and The LEGO Batman Movie.

The Hustle is driven by stars Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson, both of whom are coming off strong female-driven franchise successes (Ocean’s 8 and the Pitch Perfect series, respectively). Pre-release tracking suggests the film is generating comparable interest as Life of the Party, which also opened on Mother’s Day weekend last year.

Poms will cater to older female moviegoers, a smart play in a market largely absent of films aiming for that audience. Again, Mother’s Day should provide a boost on Sunday.

Tolkien, opening in semi-wide release, could appeal to die-hard fans of the author and The Lord of the Rings / Hobbit films. It has a fair shot to be Fox Searchlight’s best opener since 2016’s The Birth of a Nation ($7 million from 2,105 theaters) and 2015’s The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($8.5 million from 1,573 theaters).

CONS:

The biggest challenges for Pikachuappear to be its positioning in the shadow of Endgame — which will still be going strong and could top Avatar ($68.5 million) and/or Black Panther ($66.3 million) for the second or third highest third weekend ever.

Additionally, tracking for Pikachuhasn’t quite excelled to the levels once expected in long range reports, and critics’ reviews — while mostly positive and indicative of potential staying power — haven’t struck at the high level typically conducive to a breakout on the optimistic end of forecasts.

The Hustle and Poms each lack critics’ reviews as of this report, and could face some crossover competition from the well-received Long Shot.

Tolkien is, unfortunately, receiving lukewarm reviews, while tracking for the semi-wide release has proven challenging given the limited scope of its marketing and distribution.

Weekend Ranges

Avengers: Endgame ($67 – 77 million)

Detective Pikachu ($50 – 75 million)

The Hustle ($13 – 18 million)

Poms ($5 – 10 million)

Tolkien ($3 – 8 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase approximately 41 – 46 percent from the same weekend last year. That comparable Mother’s Day frame was led by Infinity War‘s $62.1 million, ahead of Life of the Party‘s $17.9 million and Breaking In‘ $17.6 million debuts. The top ten that weekend generated $126.7 million.

Weekend Forecast

Film

Distributor

3-Day Weekend Forecast

Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 12

% Change from Last Wknd

Avengers: Endgame

Disney / Marvel

$70,700,000

$731,400,000

-52%

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu

Warner Bros.

$56,000,000

$56,000,000

NEW

The Hustle

United Artists Releasing

$15,000,000

$15,000,000

NEW

Poms

STX

$8,400,000

$8,400,000

NEW

Long Shot

Lionsgate / Summit

$6,600,000

$20,000,000

-32%

The Intruder

Sony / Screen Gems

$6,000,000

$20,000,000

-45%

Tolkien

Fox Searchlight

$5,500,000

$5,500,000

NEW

Uglydolls

STX

$4,200,000

$14,700,000

-51%

Captain Marvel

Disney / Marvel

$3,000,000

$424,900,000

-31%

Breakthrough

Fox

$2,900,000

$37,500,000

-26%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.