Wednesday, April 07, 2010

WEDNESDAY........ WHY THE RUSH ?

The two Ligue 1 bets were disappointing on Sunday, OM were always going to be happy to hold on to their single goal lead after being reduced to ten men with 20 minutes remaining. They restricted Lens to just three attempts on goal all game and under different circumstances would doubtless have looked for that all important second goal.

Auxerre also came up short despite taking the lead, they dominated possession (57%) and created an enormous number of chances, with 22 attempts on goal, but could not find a second goal. So, all in all, not much luck with those two !

Marseille play again tonight when Sochaux come to the Stade Velodrome, there are few surprises when the visitors come a calling, they will get ten men behind the ball and try to hold on to what they have got. This normally works pretty well for a time, they tend not to concede early, few inside the first 30 minutes or so and only one inside the opening 17 in their last 22 starts. They held out for the full 90 minutes on the road at Bordeaux , for an hour at Montpellier and until six minutes from time at Monaco, but eventually allowed two in each of those. They are three of the very best home sides in Ligue 1 and going to another this evening, it will surely be business as normal.

Hosts almost always find a goal, scoring in their last 14, but it usually takes a while for the OM steam train up to work up to full power and in their last eight starts, only one came before the 30 minute mark and that arrived after 20 minutes of football. Given those stats, how the game is likely to play out and the importance of the result to OM, who will go two points clear at the top of the table with a win, I am going to look to play them "in running" after 10-20 mins, hopefully giving up one goal or maybe even less (they are currently quoted at -1.25 and -1.5) , providing of course they are level or even a goal down (which seems unlikely) at that stage of the game.

I like live betting more and more, it enables you to get a feel for the flow of the game, if you are betting favourites or overs, you are almost always getting far more favourable quotes, even 2-3 minutes into a game and at that stage, how much has really changed ? If you have a clear idea about how the early stages might play out, like above, why bet early and take the much tougher quotes, it makes little sense.

No team in Ligue 1 has averaged more than 0.8 goals per game in the first half of games this season and in the top five european leagues, only Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea and Inter have averaged over one goal in the opening 45 minutes. No Bundesliga side has come close and that is considered a very open, high scoring league. We all know that more goals come in the second half of games in general, so why the rush to bet ?