Peak Coal: What Do Tighter Coal Supplies Mean for ‘Clean Coal’?

The WSJ reports today that U.S. energy officials have scaled back their estimates of U.S. coal reserves. Recent government surveys of coal resources suggest that coal isn’t so abundant after all—with plenty of implications for a country heavily dependent on coal for generating its electricity. From the paper:

“We really can’t say we’re the Saudi Arabia of coal anymore,” says Brenda Pierce, head of the [U.S. Geological Survey] team that conducted the study. No one says the U.S. is facing a coal shortage. But the emerging ranks of “peak coal” theorists argue that current production levels may be unsustainable and, if anything, create a false sense of security. David Rutledge, an electrical-engineering professor at the California Institute of Technology who has studied global coal production, figures the U.S. has about half as much recoverable reserves as the government says, which would work out to about 120 years’ worth.

It’s not that vast deposits of coal suddenly disappeared. It’s just that government geologists for the first time are applying to coal fields the same kind of math that’s long been applied to other resources, such as oil and gas. That is—how much stuff is economically recoverable?

The conclusion: If coal is cheap, it isn’t so abundant. If coal is abundant, that’s because it isn’t so cheap.