While it is early in poll and voting analyses to draw any final conclusions, one overlooks the importance of staying on message down the home stretch at their own peril. This obviously includes making the right priorities in determining how the short time allotted to candidates in campaign rallies (and the television coverage of those speeches) is spent–in short, which messages should be stressed. I would argue that Hillary contributed mightily to her own demise based on some of the data that has been revealed even this early, as well as my own observations–made now and in the past. Sure, FBI Director Comey’s meddling in the election where and when he shouldn’t have no doubt played a big part in the outcome, as did latent racism among the large cohort of white, low educated, men and women. (More on the latter gender-group’s voting patterns in a moment). Those were known going into the final ten or so days, and despite those influences, a solid victory was still in reach by...

CNN reports that last night’s “debate” set a network all-time record for viewers. At the actual and figurative center of the platform was Donald Trump, flanked by Ben Carson and Jeb Bush, so “featured”as a reflection of their polling numbers. Donald, as usual, got the most attention–good and bad. I am tempted to say that through his performance tonight, he should be very close to peaking out and shall soon see his numbers start dropping. But I’ve misjudged Trump’s popularity with a certain segment of the population before, and so am cautious before pronouncing him history. Yet any way that I look at last night’s performance, I saw him on the defensive, blustering foolishly. He may have gotten away with gratuitously insulting other women, who weren’t present to respond to his bombastic insults, but not last night. He apparently suffered no immediate polling punishment when, earlier, in an interview he said of Carly Fiorina: “Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that as the face of our next president?” I’m...

Is this the year of Marshall McLuhan’s “The medium is the message.” No one appears to even consider the absurd policies Trump advocates. It reminds us that McLuhan later co-authored a book that substituted “massage” for “message,” in which it was argued that the medium “massages” the human sensorium, the place where symbols get interpreted by the senses. In this application it appears that Trump’s simplistic, but forcefully presented, solutions to frustrating political problems that are of concern to a wide audience, “massages” the sensorium, so that his policies take a back seat to his style. Thus far it has prevented a critical examination of Trump’s proposals. Whether Trump’s “massage” can keep Republican voters from examining his “messages” for the length of a long campaign is the interesting question. Similar cases, such as Huey Long and Adolph Hitler, suggest that we are only one large economic downturn away from electing a demagogue. In that light “interesting” becomes “frightening.”

Donald Trump’s insults plus his absurdly simple solutions–which fall totally apart under even the slightest close examination–to complex problems, keeps him the center of attention. And the joker in the deck is that apparently these kinds of policy statements appeal to at least a fifth of the Republican electorate. So far, at least. I wonder how well the Trump style will wear-It’s frightening to think about.

The Republican Debate. Donald Trump has to avoid looking like a fool and parry expected attacks on him, all the while continuing to garner headlines. Jeb Bush figures to preempt the “statesman” role and look the most Presidential. Walker and Rubio want to stamp themselves as THE conservative candidate. Cruz hopes to do that as well and has positioned himself to benefit from Trump’s support, when and if the latter’s candidacy falters. Christie has to re-establish himself as one of the front-runners.