Given That Johnson Won't Be Resigning With Raptors This Coming Summer

What should the Raptors do with him?

First let me begin by stating that it is my belief that he will sign with another team this coming summer. To get some feedback on that I contacted someone involved with the Raptors who might know about this. They confirmed that Johnson almost definitely will sign with another team come this summer.

The main reason he will not sign with the Raptors this summer is because Bosh will resign which means that Johnson will never have a chance to become a starter in the NBA while he is with the Raptors.

Whether Internet Raptors fans believe he could start in the NBA in a year or two is not the point. Johnson and his agent believe that he can be an NBA starter. Johnson also wants as many minutes as possible as a way to increase his on court experience and continue to improve his game. That opportunity will not avail itself in Toronto.

1. Johnson will never start in Toronto.
2. Evans will most likely move ahead of him in the rotation very shortly.
3. Evans has one more year left on his contract.

So it seems clear to me for these reasons, and confirmed by someone who should know, that Johnson and his agent will look elsewhere come July 1st.

So the question is. What to do with Johnson until then?

1. Should BC try and trade him before next next Friday or risk having Johnson just walk in July.

2. Should the Raptors not trade him and then renounce their rights to him come July 1st in order to free up the cap space from him leaving? If the Raptors do not renounce their rights to him come July 1st then his current salary will count against the Raptors cap dollars until he signs with someone.

3. If the Raptors can't trade him by next Friday do they continue to give him minutes until Evans can build up his stamina and then put Johnson into a Rasho type bench role?

4. Do they continue to give him more minutes than Evans assuming that you think that the Raptors are best served by Johnson getting more minutes than Evans, but less then he is getting now, knowing that he will be gone come this summer but Evans will be back for next season?

As I see it those are BC and Triano's options regarding Johnson. It is not very likely that CB4 and Bargnani will have their minutes cut and those reduced minutes be allocated between Johnson and Evans.

I suggest that the Raptors should play Johnson only until Evans can build up his stamina. Until Evans can play the 17 or so minutes a game that Johnson has been playing. After that Johnson should go to the bench alongside Rasho and play only like Rasho is playing, only on an as needed basis.

I don't understand why you would say Johnson should get Rasho like minutes when Evans is fully back. With the way Johnson is playing right now, he is much better than the fully healed Evans.

Now when you say Johnson will sign with another team, I completely agree with you. He is a very talented player, and he is only 22. He will deserve much more than the 20 minutes playing time than we are giving him right now. But you know, if he keeps improving, who is to say that we can't give him more minutes. If Bosh or Bargs don't HAVE to play 40 minutes for us in order to win, why should they play that much? Trust me with the high playing time JT is giving Bosh right now, he will get injured in no time. But I understand why JT is doing nowadays, it is because we have so many days off in between that we can afford to so.

Bottom line is, if Johnson doesn't want to sign with Toronto when the season ends, I do not blame him one bit. Not that I wouldn't care, but I understand where he is coming from.

Recinding rights (option #2) has no benefit to us whatsoever. We're at the tax NOT the cap, therefore being over or under the tax for next season doesnt affect our available dollars for signing FA's (either way we only have Mid-level, minimums and sign and trades to work with)

I think Johnson would do great as a 6th man for the Raptors, sort of like Antawn Jamison with Dallas (sans the stretch forward playstyle). I'd try to give him 25-30 mpg and cut that out of Bargs/Bosh's minutes. 3-rotation frontcourts tend to work well in the NBA, so I think Amir should look at it as an opportunity to be the Lamar Odom to our Bynum and Gasol.

Whether he resigns or not I don't know. I'm sure Colangelo has a handle on the situation though, and if he feels he'll be losing Johnson for nothing he'll make a trade. Perhaps Johnson for Blatche?

I think he would be making a mistake leaving the Raps. He has established himself rotation wise here and can grow with a good group. But as usual agents get into the mix. He must want a long term deal at "good" money before a new cba kicks in. Cant blame him...but will he get it on a good team? I am sure BC can make a competitive offer for a shorter period. He can then really keep improving and go for the big money on his next contract (he is still young). I would keep him for the season.

First let me begin by stating that it is my belief that he will sign with another team this coming summer.

Your belief = objective certainty apparently

To get some feedback on that I contacted someone involved with the Raptors who might know about this. They confirmed that Johnson almost definitely will sign with another team come this summer.

Who? Don't tell me they only commented if you guaranteed anonymity.

The main reason he will not sign with the Raptors this summer is because Bosh will resign which means that Johnson will never have a chance to become a starter in the NBA while he is with the Raptors.

What team doesn't have a PF who'd end up playing more minutes than Amir? Golden State doesn't count, so that leaves Detroit and Milwaukee. Oh wait, both teams already showed a lack of confidence in Amir.

Whether Internet Raptors fans believe he could start in the NBA in a year or two is not the point. Johnson and his agent believe that he can be an NBA starter. Johnson also wants as many minutes as possible as a way to increase his on court experience and continue to improve his game. That opportunity will not avail itself in Toronto.

Hm, if you look at the past 5 seasons, no NBA starter or backup averaged more than 4.0 fouls a game, and aside from Jason Thompson this year and Al Harrington in 2005-2006, the highest was 3.7-3.8. If we set the cap at 4.0 fouls per game, that puts Amir at barely over 21 minutes. Amir is already close to that with his 17 minutes per game, which is more than Detroit ever gave him.

2. Evans will most likely move ahead of him in the rotation very shortly.
3. Evans has one more year left on his contract.

So it seems clear to me for these reasons, and confirmed by someone who should know, that Johnson and his agent will look elsewhere come July 1st.

The fact that it all seems clear to you when Point #2 is highly arguable, and Point #3 isn't really relevant since 1) Evans is useful as an expiring contract should Amir show he is all the Raptors need, and 2) no team is going to sign Amir to be a starter immediately. Given that the reasons you gave are so shaky, I really doubt the credibility of your source.

1. Should BC try and trade him before next next Friday or risk having Johnson just walk in July.

No, unless they aren't serious about going as far as possible in the playoffs. Johnson's small contract makes it impossible to get value back.

2. Should the Raptors not trade him and then renounce their rights to him come July 1st in order to free up the cap space from him leaving? If the Raptors do not renounce their rights to him come July 1st then his current salary will count against the Raptors cap dollars until he signs with someone.

If they re-sign Bosh, which is why you think Amir will leave, renouncing Amir won't free up cap space since they'll still be way over the cap. On the other hand, if you're so sure of Amir leaving, why even worry about this? There's no benefit to keeping his rights, nor is there any benefit to renouncing him unless Bosh doesn't re-sign.

3. If the Raptors can't trade him by next Friday do they continue to give him minutes until Evans can build up his stamina and then put Johnson into a Rasho type bench role?

See #1. You apparently think Evans is the Raptors' saviour, but honestly, why play with something that isn't broken?

4. Do they continue to give him more minutes than Evans assuming that you think that the Raptors are best served by Johnson getting more minutes than Evans, but less then he is getting now, knowing that he will be gone come this summer but Evans will be back for next season?

Again, see #1. If your logic held, then we should play both Bosh and Wright less, because there's a chance they won't be here next year.

BTW, you should check the following out, especially the on/off stats, before you make assertions that Evans will so obviously overtake Johnson in the rotation:

In 2007-2008, scoring was way down when Evans was on the court (-5.4), while points given up only improved slightly (-2.1). Scoring was only down slightly (-0.8) when Johnson was on the court, while points given up improved greatly (-6.8).

In 2008-2009, scoring improved a tad when Evans was on the court (+0.3), while points given up got worse (+3.4). Scoring was down slightly (-1.6) when Johnson was on the court, while points given up improved drastically (-9.0).

Johnson's performance over the previous two years is reflected in his performance this year. Scoring is down (-3.4) when Johnson is on the court, but with him the Raptors are also much better defensively (-9.8).

Rebounding-wise, Johnson and Evans are closer than you think. Johnson's offensive rebounding has been 11.5%, 11.7% and 12.0% the last 3 years. Evans was 12.0% and 12.0% the two years before this one. It's only on the defensive glass that Evans is better (16.8%, 15.1% and 18.4% vs 22.1% and 23.1%).

Johnson is a much more efficient player on the offensive side (compare his eFG% to Evans', a good .100 to .150 higher). If you want to compare PER, same deal. Amir is -2.4 this year at the 4, and +8.4 at the 5. Last year, he was -0.3 at the 4, and +5.6 at the 5. The year before that, he was +9.4 at the 3, and -3.7 at the 4. Looking just at his time as a PF, that's -2.4, -0.3 and -3.7. Evans can't hold a candle to that with his -8.0 and -6.3, despite being a better rebounder.

"Given" the above, it's likely Evans will be used sparingly, and only in situations that call to his strengths.

I don't understand his reasoning, or that of his agent. Yes, he can very well become an NBA starter. But certainly he must agree that he is not starting caliber yet, and is unlikely to get a starting job for next season. So he needs to find a team with an aging PF/C rotation where he will likely be able to assume a starting role in the 2-3 years time.
Or, he could just stay in Toronto, gobble up Evans' minutes. Given that Bargs only plays like 33 a night and Bosh 37, that is 26 minutes on average a night available to him. Use those minutes for two years, then ask to be traded in two years time. How is that not more logical than his current agent's plan?
I mean, if he signs a contract with us today and comes back this summer jacked and in ridiculously skilled (including reduced fouls), then ALL the backup minutes will be available for him. He can then force a trade by next February where he can get a starting role.

Am I missing something? Toronto is the best launchpad for him to get a starting job with another team, since he only has to beat our Reggie for backup minutes this seasons and the early part of next..

Alright, the more I think about it, then less it makes sense. Who is going to give him a starting job next year? Or who will give him more minutes than we can? Why not just sign a deal with opt-out clauses? Or tell BC that you'll sign, but you'll want to be traded down the line?

According to the American media, Bosh won't be back in Toronto next season, anyway, so that opens up a starting spot, and need, for Amir. Here's the question if you're Raptors management: How confident are you that Bosh will re-sign. If you're not, I think you keep Amir unless you can deal him for another young big with a longer contract.

I hate to break it to Amir, but I don't think he'll be starting for any serious NBA team for the next two or three years. He's too foul-prone and inconsistent to warrant starter minutes at this stage of his career. He's opened some eyes with his play but it's not to such a degree that a team will come banging on his door begging him to start. He'll get as many minutes in Toronto as any other team in the league (assuming that other team isn't in serious tank-mode).

Seems people are doing a lot of worrying over the the Raptors latest version of Kris Humphries.

Amir is playing great with Jose Calderon - things wouldn't look so good with the back-up PG he'd be stuck with on most teams.

BIG difference between Humphries and Johnson. Humphries has more talent than Johnson, but always tried to be more than the role player he was. Johnson embraces his role on the team, and plays well in that role. I'd rather have a less talented guy who knows his role, than a more talented guy who doesn't.