* US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning loss in last night’s primary to a tea partier - apparently the first ever primary loss by a Majority Leader in American history - has created an opportunity for one Illinoisan…

Curiously enough, voter turnout in Cantor’s off-year primary was actually 37 percent higher than it was during the presidential election. Some have speculated about possible Democratic involvement, but that’s just speculation at this point. Cantor’s internal polling had him 34 points up late last month. An independent poll conducted June 2nd had Cantor ahead 52-39.

Whatever happened, this is a big tea party victory and a huge defeat for the DC powers that be, including the US Chamber, who’ve launched a major effort to beat back the social right this year.

This should be a wake up call concerning immigration. The business leaders and the politicians want to pass amnesty, but large segments of the general public are opposed and the recent chaos on the border could not have helped Cantor. I do not think this will be a game changer in Illinois this November. Gutiérrez is in a safe district. Oberweis has been burned by his harsh rhetoric on immigration before, but Durbin may be vulnerable in the sense of having his percentage dropping on the same issue given the fact that the “Dream Act” is being cited as a lure to young immigrants crossing the border.

In the same week as this glorious Tea Party “achievement”, let’s not forget that the King of Establishment Republicans, Ed Gillespie, outright won the GOP Senate nomination in Virginia, and the Tea Party’s most hated Lindsey Graham won the primary in SC outright.

This was much more about local factors. He was punished for ignoring his district, lousy constituent services, poking local conservatives in the eye repeatedly, and his role in the government shutdown which affected tons of his constituents.

Tom Joad: I have never heard of a candidate in illinois who raised a lot of money, had no ground game and moved around on so many issues it was hard to tell what he was for. Maybe we will see one here as well!

Me too. I am still in that mode because of the hard right swing of the Republican Party. Reagan, who I thought was pretty conservative in his day, would be a hardcore RINO today. Reagan gave amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants.

Illinois Republicans should embrace immigration reform like they did voter rights. The future is coming, and it ain’t going to be pretty for the GOP, unless it passes immigration reform, at the very least.

Only if he’s running to be Senator of Fantasyland. In Illinois, “immigration reform” is a two sided coin. For every person wanting stricter immigration laws, there’s a group wanting looser enforcement. Durbin’s base is squarely and solidly in the latter, and the percentage in the former we’re never voting for Durbin anyway. Illinois is to Cantor’s district as an apple is to a hand grenade.

Redistricting was also a factor. Cantor gained more conservative Republican precincts that he had not represented previously. His flirtation with Obama on amnesty was an issue as was his reliance on faulty polls which had him cruising to victory against a poorly funded challenger. It has been reported that Cantor’s poll had him thirty points ahead.

Agreed. You can’t be and run on the National stage and national talking points and not understand what can happen at “home” or not understand the Virginia 7th allows you to be national, so get your supporters voting to offset your distractors if your positions differ from “back home”…

So according to Politico, Roskam will definitely face Rep Steve Scalise (R-LA) for the whip job. Scalise chairs the Republican Study Committee and is reasonably well liked and will have lieutenants out whipping for him (Reps Kevin Brady and Phil Roe). But Scalise also faces criticisms that the RSC didn’t do much of anything under his tenure, and devolved into merely a “debating society.”

Other insta-mentions for the whip job include Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) and maybe Tom Price (R-TX). National Journal describes a three-way race between Roskam, Sessions and Scalise as “what could be an extremely competitive three-way contest between well-liked and well-connected members.”

Two questions: 1) will the race happen -now-? Some GOP want the leadership race instantly, in effect asking Cantor to step down and put the new team in place before the midterm? 2) who are going to be Roskam’s top lieutenants in this race?

===“I met with all of them,” Mr. Brat said in a February interview with The New York Times. “But it’s tough. Everybody just wants to see the polls, how much money you’ve raised. But they do not know what’s going on on the ground.”===

“Ground”…can’t control the ground game, you can face defeat easier, than having a ground game and making a difference on the streets and have a fighting chance against a groundswell.

The odd thing about the Tea party defeat is that Cantor was already far right, if the Tea party gains more traction it’s going to be game over for the Republican party. The House Republicans are going to have to resist the urge to move to the right to win primaries and focus on winning general elections.

Cantor, by all measures used until five years ago, was a hard-core Conservative. Now he’s beaten by someone to his Right, and portrayed as a “Moderate.”

Roskam is at least as Conservative, but might be too “Left” for the activists in Congress and his district.

Boehner may have to stay put, and put an obvious Tea-Partyer in the second spot.

The political world has tilted into a new axis. Let’s see if this is a new normal.

The problem, of course, is that any hints at supporting compromise, on issues like immigration, budget, or social issues, can lead to immediate removal from office. That doesn’t bode well for a working government.

Another curious thing about Cantor’s loss is that his district had significantly higher voter turnout than Virginia’s two other districts. Cantor’s district had 65,008 votes cast, but the other two districts had just 38,855 and 17,444 votes cast, according to the Virginia Board of Elections’ website. Since all congressional districts in Virginia should have roughly the same number of constituents, it’s striking that there would be such a difference in voter turnout. It makes me think that a greater percentage of Democrats voted for Cantor’s opponent, especially since all previous polling of Republicans in the district showed Cantor in a significant lead, but I hope analysts have a way of looking for crossover votes to confirm, as I’m unsure how Virginia’s primary operates.

I thought Reagan agreed to a one time amnesty under the provision that the flow of illegal immigrants into this country was going to be stopped, and that verification of employable status was going to be enforced. Neither of those provisions were entirely enforced.

I will say just like in 2010 there was a “media perception” that tried and hurt the “tea party” …This shows the reality, the Tea Party at it’s core is just a loose connection of people that are fed up of status quo…It’s pause for all… These are not wackos… They are the unhappy middle..

I suspect that Durbin will be reelected, but his margin may be smaller than in elections past. His immigration stand may account for some of that, but fatigue will also be a factor. Like Quinn, Durbin is something of a political lifer. He has won numerous races, but he is not especially popular. His opponent’s baggage is Durbin’s edge.

News media fun and games. Guy spends far more time bashing Wall Street and boosting Main Street (a very good thing, IMO) than he does talking social policy. He’s an economist and a college professor, not some Joe Walsh type.

Now, if his ‘event’ pushes Roskam up in leadership, that’s probably a good thing for IL. Other than that, to steal a phrase that’s currently popular, “So What”.

the anti immigrant fervor in the campaign in that district
is shameful.

but the professor vs. professor from the same college race is just fascinating! Ayn Rand loving ex seminarian economics analyst vs. true son of the south prolific writer disabilities analyst farmer.
longing for a live feed from Richmond to watch this one.

I was just reading something the other day talking about how the GOP was taking the fight to the tea pary canidates. The Geist of the article was that the tea party canidates who win the primaries tend to not do so well in the election.

I never looked up the actual statistics on that, but it would support the idea of the democrats throwing support behind a tea party canidate in the primary to improve the chance of capturing the seat in the general. Given the [poll number before the elction it seems like something with voters changed, and there wasn’t a last minute scandal, so it seems reasonable that there may have been some people crossing party lines not unlike what happened here.

2. There has been no talk yet of the current whip leaving his post and if you saw any of the shows this morning on msnbc most of the chuck todds/congressional reporters seemed to think he would not have the votes to move up to majority leader because mccarthy is seen as incompetent and too liberal for the caucus.

3. Roskam’s own position in the caucus is tenuous as has been reported here as he’s seen much like cantor by the new right as part of the failed old right dc establishment

“but it could be a tough climb for the Illinois Republican…Hard-line conservatives, who dominate the House GOP Conference, are not sold yet on the idea that Roskam should be the whip, or that he is conservative enough for them”

So if Roskam is running for Whip that means Kevin McCarthy is running for Majority Leader? The guy constantly talks about how he made it without government assistance but conveniently forgets his lottery winnings that started his business came from government and were just lucky. Used car salesman vibe combined with televangelist.

Brat won because it was God’s will; he said so on the tv last night, describing his victory as a miracle from God. Sounds like those Princeton theological school tuiton dollars might have been wasted. (Rich, didn’t mean to offend, but I know I’m not the only one who has wondered about it, esp’ly given the tp’s relative lack of success lately.)

He lost touch with his district. They taught him a lesson. Dan Rostenkowski did the same thing. They taught him a lesson. Arguably, he was more powerful as House Ways and Means Chair than a Majority Leader.

If you wake up a sleeping lion, you get eaten. Cantor simply took his district for granted. Total No-no. Those quoting Tip O’Neill are correct. All politics are local. Tough lesson.

The lion wasn’t asleep. Every attempt at amnesty over the past few years has been shot down repeatedly. Ever since the Great Recession began polls have shown clearly that a majority of voters don’t want more millions competing for fewer jobs or depressing the working wages in the US.

The pro-amnesty folks are wrong on this issue at this time.

Fix our economy. Fix our border security. Then we’ll discuss what to do with the millions here illegally. No amnesty before.

Not exactly the same, but I would add that Rosty had only been in his brand new district for about two years when he was ousted (he actually beat Cullerton in a primary when the former 8th and 11th CDs were merged). Rosty picked up many precincts formerly represented by Annunzio.

I always believed that if Rostenkowski had retained many of his former 8th CD precincts (most of which wound being shuffled to the 4th and 7th CDs) that he probably would have remained in office until after his trial and conviction. Those were reliable Machine precincts. Some of Rosty’s new constituents were not thrilled by the negative press that he was receiving and were quick to pull the trigger to oust him.

-No, we’re not. Even John McCain thinks the Republicans will never win a presidential election again unless they pass comprehensive immigration reform.-

Sorry 47th, but you have it backwards…passing immigration reform will all but guarantee republican losses for years to come. Who cares what McCain thinks, we’ve seen how successful he’s been on the national stage. Opposing amnesty is not anti-immigrant, it is a refusal to reward those who have broken the law. Maybe give them a green card after a certain amount of time…IF they’ve behaved, but citizenship ? Never.

You’re a goofball. You need to learn. The indictment was likely forgivable in his district. Catastrophic Healthcare Bill in Congress…not so much. Seniors sprawled on the hood of his car. That’s the visual for his loss, not selling stamps back.

Maybe you need to learn. 2 years later they elected Blago. Not a terribly high bar in that district.

===You’re a goofball. You need to learn. The indictment was likely forgivable in his district. Catastrophic Healthcare Bill in Congress…not so much. Seniors sprawled on the hood of his car. That’s the visual for his loss, not selling stamps back.===

Cantor is not under indictment, Rosty was.

Cantor lost in a Primary, Rosty in a General.

When you compare Rosty’s loss to others losing, get the type of election right, and the circumstances right too.

===Maybe you need to learn. 2 years later they elected Blago. Not a terribly high bar in that district.===

Blago had a Ground Game, not under indictment, and was seen as a Golden Boy of the Mell Crew in that time frame.

Anti-immigration fervor caused at least one stunning win during the recent EU parliamentary elections. I suspect this “nativist sentiment” (per 47th Ward) may have increasingly powerful legs in some parts of the US.

OW,
You’re still wrong. The indictment didn’t sink him. The Seniors did. First, Notch years in Social Security reform. Second, Catastrophic Health Care Bill. Rosty gone. Primary vs. General made no difference. There was an election to punish him in and they did. Oddly, the indictment was the least of his problems. Illinois just proved “indicted guys” get re-elected. Quit while you’re way behind. (Sigh)

Not to get interrupt a good flame war, but don’t forget, Rostenkowski lost in the general in 1994, the biggest wave election in American history. Speaker Foley lost, we lost the U.S. House and Senate and the Illinois House and Senate and the Republicans swept every statewide race in Illinois.

Now I have fond memories of the Notch Babies too, but Newt’s Contract with America and the backlash against President Clinton in the midterm had way more to do with Rostenkowski’s defeat than postage stamps or health care or any other local issue.

Cantor’s Primary loss was based on a Party ideal, Rosty loss was based on Rosty.

It’s not the same. Primaries and Generals are different, with different dynamics, voter universes, and party influences.===

Rosty’s district was among the top 2 or 3 smallest geographically in the entire country.
“Primaries and Generals are different, with different dynamics, voter universes, and party influences” There is no difference in that kind of district. In fact, the general was generally superfluous. There is little ‘other’ voting universe. There was only one influence at work; seniors were super ticked. End of story. They were teaching their boy a lesson. They did. Just like Josh. He gone.

Rod Blagojevich told me after Rosty had lost that Rosty had a lot of fire in the primary against John Cullerton but that by the time the general election came around the fire was gone. It makes a certain amount of sense - its one thing to lose to someone from the other party, but quite another to have someone from your own party and organization try to force you out. Also, I don’t think Rosty was under indictment until after the election.

===Meanwhile, Rostenkowski disputed the results of a poll taken a week ago by the Republican National Committee that shows Rostenkowski trailing Flanagan by 21 percentage points.===

I keep looking for polls with Cantor down…

Not the same…

Same article, however…

===Daley promised to deploy workers to turn out the vote, adding that he would appear “anytime, anyplace” with Rostenkowski, 66, whose campaign has been hobbled by a federal indictment charging him with misusing campaign funds, extortion and obstruction of justice.===

I keep looking for those factors in Cantor’s loss, can’t find them.

Add - 47th Ward -’s insight on an election, happening all over the country, simultaneously, then where is this similarity?

And that’s why we’ll never have any sort of immigration reform - unreasonable lines in the sand. I have zero clue as to why people oppose citizenship if they come out into the open and go to the back of the line and go through the process. But it’s the all or nothing crow that will prevent this from happening. Never mind the dopes who think we can deport all of those people . . .

I live in Cantor’s district in Virginia. Republicans have controlled the redistricting process in Virginia for at least the last decade, and this district was engineered to be extremely conservative. Cantor has been challenged from the left many times, and naturally he survived all of those handily, but he has never before been challenged from the right - until now. Methinks the Republican Party has gerrymandered itself into quite a pickle, as Republican reps will now be pressured to move even further to the extreme right, which will make the party even less attractive in statewide and nationwide elections that cannot so easily be gerrymandered.

Wordslinger at 11:17- don’t try to confuse people with facts. Everyone they know believes the same thing they do so that makes them right ;-)

Maybe there is a large number of anti- immigrant people in Cantor’s district, but even that alone can’t explain the swing towards his rival .

The huge turnout says to me that a large majority of the voters ( maybe if both parties) in his district felt he wasn’t representing THEM. If Democrats crossed over to get him off the November tickets (haven’t seen the demo turnout numbers yet to see if they are much lower than last primaries) it might have contributed some but I would lean towards what others are saying- local anger at his ignoring the folks back home may have cost him his job.

This steak dinners meme is going to threaten to spiral out of control fast however. Keep in mind that he was House Majority Leader and it was his job to host a bunch of high-profile fundraisers for candidates all around DC. Lobbyists like steak.

If Cantor lost principally because of his immigration stance, his loss was a fluke. This sounds to me more like a throw the bums out vote on the part of Republican primary voters, many of whom apparently aren’t happy with the mainstream Republican leadership. And lets face it, Cantor probably didn’t do much to combat his Washington elite image. Hubris, hubris. Immigration was just the issue du jour. I don’t think the immigration issue plays a big role in deciding elections in the US nor will it in the future, making one wonder why the holdup on reform. Can’t blame it all on the Republicans.

Cassandra I think you are right it was throw the bums out and there also was a lot of dislike of Cantor in the district from what I have heard. A reporter from the local area this AM said Cantor only had town halls with people he invited, his constituent services were lousy, no one in the district could talk to him due to the number of security staff he had around him, and that he was not really representing them. It made sense since this position is one that requires local connections vs. state or national connections. Supposedly the last primary his opponent got 34% of the vote, so this apparently has been an mounting issue in his district.

=== a majority of voters don’t want more millions competing for fewer jobs or depressing the working wages in the US. ====

Actually right to work states have done more to depress wages then immigrants

For unskilled work, most US jobs are already part time minimium wage. You cant really depress it more, unless you cut the minimium wage. oddly retailers paying thos part time minimium wages regualrly report high turnover, difficulty finding good employees to work at minimium wage, and problems keeping employees.

Also the lack of amnesty serves more to depress wages. Currently illegal immigrants are hired off bookin the US for less then minimium wage. Their status as illegal keeps them from being able to enfroce the minimium wage law. By keeping so many outside the system for enfrocing wage and work standards, we help to depress wages.

If we offered amnesty the work force that could be held to work for less then minimium wage, and forced to work overtime without additional compensation would vanish. Wages would actually go up.

A number of local retail buisness are complaining that they have to few, to no applicants for their jobs. We do not have a problem with too many americans wanting to work these jobs.

Amnesty would help to increase wages, and provide workers in sectors that struggle to find employees. Plus you would no longer have a population which can be forced into criminal activity for fear of being found out or departed.

When you say enfrocement I assume you mean our unenforced border with Canada……

Interesting to see the spin on the immigration/amnesty issue in the Cantor race.

Trying to dismiss the amnesty issue as bogus or unfounded as Hume and Cameron of Fox have tried to spin it is an overstatement. It is more complex than that and evolves around that and other issues in which Republican voters feel that people like Cantor listen to the political and business elites on a wide variety of matters and do not pay attention to the folks at home.

Immigration/amnesty as a single issue will not determine an election. But it can and will be one factor that can not be ignored in many districts (not all) throughout the country- and elections are often close.

Immigration was an important factor, but it was not the only factor. Many felt that as Cantor became a part of the party leadership that he began to favor the insiders in the Beltway establishment and ignored his constituents. Speaker Boehner is not especially popular with all Republicans across the board.

Illegal immigration has declined significantly in recently years. The Mexican economy is improving, the US recession killed a lot of jobs, and border security has improved, since we have poured a ton of money in it. How long is this going to be an issue. In fact, given our aging population, how long will it be before we are begging these folks to come back and help us care for our huge elderly population.

“Opposing amnesty is not anti-immigrant, it is a refusal to reward those who have broken the law.”

I just read about some of the US Senate immigration reform bill that is before the House and ready to expire. It provides for increased border security and a pathway to citizenship for young undocumented residents, who have to follow rules and be productive in our society. It’s the kind of amnesty that I very much support, because it’s humane to children who didn’t ask to come here and gives them a stake in our future.

In other national races, the tea party didn’t do so well, but I’m watching to see what happens in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate primary runoff. The tea party candidate might win it. That could be an opening for a Blue Dog Democrat to win (Travis Childers).

Illinois Republicans should embrace immigration reform and try to be leaders, if at all possible in the dysfunction.

I read comments elsewhere criticizing Democrats for having Blue Dogs in southern states, because they’re too conservative. That criticism was rejected by other liberals who may have a more realistic viewpoint, in that the Blue Dogs are needed to win in conservative states. I don’t yet see ideologues on the left rebelling against the Democratic establishment, but that might change if it’s Warren vs. Clinton in the primary.

Actually that seems to be Mr. Bratts focus. Sepperating big Gov and Big Business. Immigration appears to have been the low hanging fruit. Not only that but i think most people are disappointed in the Gov. right now. Cantor being in leadership it’s pretty hard to play the “but my rep is not part of the problem” delusion.

“Good news for Illinois if Roskam becomes Whip. Hopefully one day he will be Speaker.” And what good did it do us to have Denny Hastert as Speaker? The Hastert Highway he proposed never happened once he got a couple of millions for his farm near the Highway he proposed.

Once again, for a whole slough of reasons, in some races ya just can’t seem to trust Polls…the trick is figurin’ out which Races those ARE, and what the REAsons are which is affecting or will affect the outcome one way or the other in the end…! At any rate, it appears that Mr. Cantor MIGHT have become a bit too complacent in those last weeks leading up to the Big Day for the final votes to be tallied, and it came back to bite him–apparently harder than any U.S. House Majority Leader in American History…!

–Last Friday, Cantor’s campaign distributed an internal poll from John McLaughlin that showed him ahead 34 points over Brat. The firm, McLaughlin & Associates, said the margin of error for the May 27-28 survey was only 4.9 percentage points.–

The margin of error was actually closer to 49 percentage points.

I’m certain I’ve never heard of a poll being so far off. I can’t see how this guy will ever work in the business again.