May 26, 2017

StormTALK! Friday Edition

DISCUSSION:Well, lots to track this weekend. And I fully expect more changes to the forecast as soon as later today so make sure you keep checking back in with us on timing/coverage issues.

So here is how it stands this morning:

Rest of today:CAP is in place. This is a lid that will keep the atmosphere quiet today as we move into the 80s.

Tonight:Signs that the CAP will slowly erode north to south as a complex of thunderstorms tracks from IL to OH overnight. This could create an outflow that just may provide enough cooling aloft for thunderstorms to develop south toward the Ohio River. Timing looks to be after 2am at this point of that happening...and it could even be after 5am. There will be a hail risk for those that do form.

Saturday:The daytime period is the most challenging. We will really amp up the humidity. The question will be any boundaries in the area that will lead to t-storms re-developing. If the above setup mentioned Friday night does materialize, then that would provide for a cloudy/hazy start along the I-64 zone. As the clouds thin in the afternoon, t-storms could pop along where that boundary was. Some of the data we are looking at is going for this idea, some do not as they are not impressive with the Friday night boundary pushing in. The plan is to keep rain chance at roughly 40% for the afternoon period for now. We will keep you posted.

Saturday night:The well-advertised complex of severe t-storms will blossom over MO/AR and race east after sunset. I can see 2 ideas with this one. 1) The suspected boundary along I-64 isn't there Saturday afternoon, then the complex could track more east into the heart of WAVE Country around midnight. Widespread damaging wind threat. 2) The boundary IS there and it will help push the approaching complex more southeast than due east. This would fade out the northern part of the "blob" as it approaches I-65 but keep the threat high for our southern counties into TN. Both ideas are on the table really at this point.

Sunday:Once the overnight mess calms down (which may take until after sunrise) we have a chance to gain more sun breaks by the afternoon. The problem is a cold front will be moving in. That may spark ONE more round of t-storms that could turn severe Sunday afternoon. The more we stay cloudy/rainy in the morning, the less coverage of t-storms we can expect with the cold front later in the day.