|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office.

|As with [[Ronald Reagan]], [[liberal bias]] is at its worst against her; has never won statewide office.

|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped badly in the polls since her Iowa victory.

|Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the [[Ames Straw Poll]] but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped badly in the polls since her Iowa victory.

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|[[Chris Christie]]

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|Led [[Barack Obama]] in Zogby's polling as of January 2011 and again in October; takes on the [[public school]] teachers' unions and is a fiscal reformer who puts liberals in their place; is liked for his budget cuts, particularly to [[Planned Parenthood]]; has an unscripted style and appearance that is a refreshing alternative to the Teleprompter President. Widely discussed as a potential center-right candidate to overtake the Republican primary field with no clear frontrunners. <ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/why-christie-should-run-for-president/2011/09/24/gIQAE3B2yK_story.html Why Christie Should Run For President] Washington Post, retrieved Sept. 26th 2006.</ref> Well liked in his home state.

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|Significantly overweight, Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it. As had been long predicted here, Christie ''has endorsed [[Mitt Romney]]''.

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|Announced, on October 4, his final decision not to seek the presidency in 2012.

Revision as of 23:24, 19 November 2011

The next presidential debates are on November 19 in Des Moines, IA (no telecast) and November 22, 2011 in Washington, DC.

The Presidential Election 2012 is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Obama, with his declining popularity, is unlikely to win reelection unless he can carry Florida, which he won only narrowly last time.

For the Republican nomination, if the supporters of Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich agree on one candidate, then he would likely defeat Mitt Romney, who currently leads in the first primary state of New Hampshire.[1] None yet have broad enough support to win the nomination, but that could change quickly as this becomes a two-man race.

Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination

First runner-up in 2008, business experience, Republican governor of a Democratic state, cut taxes and the deficit, prodigious fundraiser and tireless campaigner, polling at 40% in the key early primary state of New Hampshire, credited for helping Scott Brown win an upset victory for the seat long held by Ted Kennedy. Likely to be endorsed by Marsha Blackburn, Jim Talent, etc. Only 26% of voters said they would never vote for him, which is the lowest negative of any major Republican candidate.[2] Has come out with a new jobs plan. Received endorsement from Chris Christie.[3]

Weak on the pivotal pro-life issue, and even refuses to sign the same pro-life pledge that all other major Republican candidates signed;[4] continues to believe in liberal propaganda claiming global warming; Romney once supported abortion and civil unions, is criticized by the Tea Party Express chairwoman and others due to his ObamaCare-like health plan in Massachusetts, which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008. The lack of criticism of Romney by the lamestream media suggests that they want him to win so that they can defeat him in the general election.

Has failed to pick up much additional support, but remains strong in New Hampshire and Nevada, and has done well in the debates so far. Yet has done poorly in straw polls and the vast majority of Republican voters are apparently looking for an alternative.

Articulate, credited with 1994 landslide, balanced the federal budget in the Clinton era, leader in fundraising, likely to obtain endorsement of older "right to life" groups against Mitt;[5] has one-sided promotion by the Fox News Channel and the WSJ, who will likely criticize his opponent Mitt Romney; Gingrich's record of passing conservative legislation as Speaker of the House is remarkably strong, including welfare reform, DOMA, the Solomon Amendment, and even term limits. He also had the courage to shut down the government.

Has previously endorsed liberal ideas like "cap-and-trade" (global warming hoax) and a Con Con. Resigned as Speaker rather than follow through with the impeachment of Bill Clinton; divorced twice and married three times, most recently to a woman 23 years younger than he; has never won statewide office. Since 9/11, Newt has come to adopt more big-government and pro-regulatory neoconservative views, unlike the push for limited-government and deregulation he spearheaded during the 1990s.

Surging in the polls as his support grows as the alternative to Romney. Did surprisingly well (3rd place) in the straw poll in Nevada in mid-October. One nationwide and several statewide polls released in early November showed Newt in either 1st place (Mississippi) or 2nd (Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia). His debate performances have earned him a reputation as the most knowledgeable of the Republican candidates and the one most capable of winning next year's debates against Obama. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant.

Seems less scripted than other candidates. A former successful Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem. Won a stunning landslide victory in the Florida straw poll on September 24 that led to an October surge.

His 9-9-9 plan for tax reform and economic recovery helped him gain a nationwide following, but it has also drawn fire from other conservatives for introducing a new federal tax resembling the tax of the left-wing European Union. Cain has few staff and little organization in the early primary and caucus states. Has never held elected office. Stated on CNN that abortion should be a decision of the family and not the government.[6]

Finished second in the Values Voter Summit in Oct. 2011. Now is in the top tier of candidates, according to several national polls. His candidacy may have been damaged by inexplicable lapses during recent interviews and by charges of sexual impropriety.

The opportunity for Jeb to win is now, not in 2016 when another Republican would be the incumbent; Jeb is sure to win Florida and Obama cannot win reelection without Florida; George W. Bush's book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb could unite the Republican Party with a late candidacy; is more conservative than his brother George W. Bush; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;[7] Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida public schools with vouchers.[8]

The deadlines have passed for getting on the ballot in New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina. Also, in February Jeb polled unusually poorly (54-34%) against Barack Obama;[9] Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012. Knows that he would be viewed negatively by some as the "third" Bush. Is disliked by many Tea Partiers.

With increased likelihood that no candidate will obtain a majority before the convention next August, Jeb's best chance is to be chosen at the convention. Jeb will not want to wait until 2020 to run, which may be his next opportunity if a Republican wins in 2012 amid the high unemployment (9%).

Terrific on economic issues, can raise the money needed to win; people may look to an anti-war Republican; Won the CPAC Poll. Appeals to many social liberals. Runs pro-life ads while Romney says little about the issue. Also, Obama's support in polls is lowest when Paul is his opponent.

Voted twice to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell, which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans. Other candidates have adopted some of his economic ideas but Paul has been given very little time during the debates to promote them himself.

Has won at least fifteen regional straw polls and online polls and, surprisingly, won the Values Voter Summit straw poll in a landslide in Oct. 2011. Was the clear crowd favorite in the Iowa debate on Aug. 10. and easily won the MSNBC-sponsored candidates' debate at the Reagan Library on September 7. Scientific polls of Republican voters, however, have repeatedly shown him stuck in the middle of the pack, often in single digits.

Announced his candidacy late, on August 13. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run Texas for a decade (since George W. Bush became president); crushed RINOKay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has an excellent jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states. Strong religious faith that he is not afraid to show. Understands the concept of states' rights. Is a formidable fundraiser with plenty of funds on hand.

It can be argued is more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed RINORudy Giuliani in 2008; tried by executive order to force all schoolgirls (except for parental opt-outs) to receive the HPV vaccine; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing abortion; and continues to champion a Texas policy that allows in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. Could simply block Mitt Romney from winning the nomination, without winning it himself.

Stumbled in his first major statements on abortion, same-sex marriage, and the question of building a fence to reduce illegal immigration. May be counting on the South to deliver the votes needed to win the nomination, but currently trails in most of the Southern states. Was ahead in national polls after his declaration of candidacy, then fell dramatically.

Did well in the first debate that he participated in, but seemed tired or unprepared during a string of later debates, raising doubts about his electablility. Did poorly in the Values Voter Summit straw poll.

A movement conservative who "knocked the ball out of the park" with her nationally televised response to Obama's State of the Union address in January 2011, Bachmann is popular with the Tea Party movement; she is a strong fundraiser and won a stunning 52-40% landslide in 2010 in a liberal-leaning district in Minnesota. Did very well at CPAC in Feb. 2011. Bachmann's beliefs are similar to Ron Paul's, but she is more of a conservative than libertarian, and is trying to appeal to Ron Paul's fanbase[10], thus a Bachmann candidacy could unite Tea Party conservatives.

Did extremely well in the first debate and jumped to #1 in Zogby poll of primary voters. Won the Ames Straw Poll but was upstaged by Rick Perry's declaration of candidacy on the same day. Has slipped badly in the polls since her Iowa victory.

Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly conservative across the board.

His all-out support of RINO and now-Democrat Arlen Specter prevented Pat Toomey from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; endorsed Romney in 2008.

Was fabulous in the Iowa debate August 10th, and has won praise for his performance in more recent debates, but has remained near the bottom in most polls. Has campaigned relentlessly in Iowa where he succeeded in picking up several important endorsements this fall.

Has foreign policy and executive experience. Appealing to moderates, although this is because he holds numerous liberal stances.

Worked in the Obama administration; Criticized the economic stimulus package as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming; the "civility" candidate adored by the media for being more willing to attack his fellow Republicans than the Democrats; could simply be a Utah decoy used by Team Newt to siphon support from Mitt Romney

Getting only minimal support, except among the media and multiple Democrats

A movement conservative who could unite the Party, he is the most charismatic speaker in politics today; in the general election he would pull Florida and many Hispanic voters away from the Democrats. Both of his parents were Cuban exiles seeking asylum in the U.S. at the time of his birth in Miami, making him an inspiring, uniquely American success story. Many Republican voters think he would be the ideal candidate for Vice President.

Could face the liberal double standard on two fronts: 1) what's OK for Obama (e.g., inexperience) is somehow not OK for a conservative. 2) Liberals who have been deriding the strict definition of "natural born citizen" which some conservatives have been applying to Obama might also turn around and use the same logic with Rubio, claiming that his non-citizen parents invalidate his natural-born status.

Declared on October 5 that he will not be a candidate for Vice President

Empathetic, attracts crowds, personally pro-life, fiscal conservative, popular, track record of supporting upset victories in primaries; had a popular television series and book tour that emphasizes the grassroots rather than the "inside the Beltway" mentality.

It's difficult to take seriously someone who relies so heavily on Facebook. Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.[11] Appointed a former Planned Parenthood board member to the Alaska Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lagged in fundraising despite publicity,[5] came in a disappointing fifth in the Values Voter Summit in September 2010 and fared badly at CPAC. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and many Republicans from George W. Bush (allegedly) to Peggy Noonan have been critical of her running for president.[12] 58% of American voters in a May poll said they would never vote for her.[2]. Frequently mocked by the liberal media.

Announced on October 5 that she would not be a candidate for president in 2012. Marist poll conducted September 13-14, 2011 showed gains for her but also that a large majority of Republicans still didn't want her to run.

Pro-life in rhetoric, pro-Second Amendment and pro-Bible; strong in polling, particularly among evangelicals

Announced on May 14th that he's not running; was stuck at 20-30%; as governor raised taxes and state spending; released man who later killed officers; disliked by CPAC-types and by Club for Growth; supported the cave-in by the Republican leadership to continue funding Planned Parenthood (the nation's largest abortion provider) as part of the budget deal in April 2011. Has ruled himself out of contention.[13]

Tied for first in Gallup Poll;[14] forced Obama's to take seriously voters' concerns over his birth certificate, and is also willing to criticize liberal media; has business savvy and resources as a billionaire; is well-known.[15] His unscripted, abrasive and arrogant style may be just what voters want. Not a career politician helps his cause.

Said he's not running.[16] Criticized for his ego and has never held elected office. Needs to explain his previous support of liberal policies such as socialized medicine,[17] as well as donating to various Democrats including Harry Reid in the past. A reliable poll (Quinnipiac) found that 58% of voters said they would never vote for Trump.[2]

Congressman from Michigan who is sometimes promoted by Fox News, and does not need to read from a teleprompter to give a speech.

Thad who? Not enough people know who he is. Twice this year voted against ending the preference for union labor in government construction projects. Could have been seeking name recognition rather than the Republican nomination.[18]

Never rose above 1% in polls. Ended his campaign on September 22, 2011 and endorsed Romney.

Could be the next Ronald Reagan; is the heir-apparent to massive support for Ron Paul; won the U.S. Senate seat by a 56-44% landslide in 2010, despite an intense effort by liberals to smear and defeat him; is 100% pro-life. Failure of Congress to cut spending enhances likelihood that voters will turn to someone strong on reducing government.

Rand, immensely popular after his landslide victory for Senate, will not run for president unless his dad drops his own campaign for the same office. Time is running out for Rand to assert himself as the candidate in 2012.

Strong support by social conservatives, libertarians,[19] Tea Party, and evangelicals; a tenacious advocate willing to criticize Obama

Stated at a conservative conference in July 2010 that he is not running for president, but after Mike Pence pulled out in Jan. 2011 Jim DeMint is showing interest again, before announcing again in late March that he is not running; as a Southern conservative, he would need to work hard to gain support in Iowa and New Hampshire, the key early primary states[20]

Has won statewide office. Leader in challenging ObamaCare, advancing pro-life principles, and opposing the global warming hoax, including investigating Liberal University of Virginia's involvement in the Climategate scandal. Wants to stop the homosexual agenda prevalent at the University of Virginia and other Virginia universities.

Only 42 years old, he'll probably become governor of Virginia before running for president. Not as frequent a speaker at Tea Party events as others, such as Steve King and Michele Bachmann. Also, Cuccinelli may be more influential on domestic policy in his current position than a president is.

Young; popular in his home state of Minnesota; Had a surprisingly good record on immigration.

Still not well known outside of Minnesota; signed $893 million in meddlesome fees/taxes including a "health fee" for cigarette smokers (which was ruled unconstitutional), a harvest fee for farmers, a 9-1-1 fee on all telephone lines, a fee for traditional marriage, and large increase in parking fees;[21] supported the liberal cap and trade; accepted stimulus funds after arguing against them; lacks a socially conservative base; arranged a meeting with a liberal medical society in 2003 in order to cave into the pro-abortion side by downplaying medical harm caused by abortion,[22] despite hard-fought passage of the Woman's Right to Know Act mandating disclosure. Came off as as drab and uncompelling. He endorsed Mitt Romney after he ended his own bid.[23]

Lost ground after a perception of underachieving in the first debate June 13; then his criticism of Michele Bachmann seemed to backfire with her rebuttal in the second debate. Pawlenty finished third in the Iowa Straw Poll and quickly announced that he was ending his bid for the nomination.

Stated in May 2011 that he's not running for president. Sided with Democrats in 2011 in opposing right-to-work legislation, is little known nationally, was criticized when he tried to downplay significance of social issues, is not telegenic, lacks a socially conservative base, and his state budget relies heavily on gambling revenue. Has chastised conservatives for calling Obama a socialist.

Although not a candidate for President, he has declined to rule out accepting the nomination for Vice President.

Communicates a very strong conservative message: "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order." Won straw poll held at the Values Voter Summit in September 2010. On Nov. 3rd, gave up his House leadership position. Has since announced a run for Governor of Indiana in 2012.

Announced on Jan. 27, 2011 that he's not running for president; previously he unsuccessfully proposed a "comprehensive" immigration plan that was widely criticized by conservatives; lacks legislative achievements; not well-known and has never won statewide office; either he or Huckabee could become a stalking horse for Newt Gingrich with respect to evangelical voters in Iowa

Former libertarian two-term governor of New Mexico, he has been recommended by Ron Paul, Johnson is a strong advocate of a libertarian belief system.

Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal immigration and allowing same-sex unions. Given Ron Paul's run, there seems to be little support for Gary Johnson in this election cycle.

Cannot get much support and is underfunded, but he did quite well in the second debate that he was allowed to appear in.

Rose in ranking based on the victory of his choice as the new RNC chairman;[26] has a conservative record as governor of Mississippi; was a consummate lobbyist and could raise many tens of millions for a campaign.

Announced in late April 2011 that he is not running; also, rarely seen at conservative conferences, and a Republican from the Deep South may have trouble attracting independent voters.

Defeated Tom Daschle, relatively conservative voting record for a senator; also taller than Obama, and enjoys broad support

Announced on Feb. 22, 2011 that he's not running; may lack an essential "fire in the belly";[27] voted for TARP financial bailout[28] and McCain-Feingold campaign finance; no-show at some conservative events; hasn't effectively criticized Obama; could simply become a stalking horse candidate for Gingrich, brought 100 million worth of earmarks in a spending bill, then awkwardly claimed he backed the projects but opposed the bill.

Seems more focused on his Homeland Security position in the House than any Presidential aspirations

The Chess Game for the Republican Party

Short form

The short form analysis is this: it probably requires a minimum of $25 million in campaign funds to win the nomination, and more if the candidate lacks a strong conservative base. Many of the candidates are probably looking to big fundraisers for support, but they are unsure of whom to back. Karl Rove, with all of his contacts from the Bush years, may be able to raise $20 million for a candidate; Haley Barbour might be able to raise even more. Fox News and its allies can raise eight figures also, as they helped reelect John McCain as senator in 2010.

The fundraising obstacle is no problem for Mitt Romney. Michelle Bachmann could reach that goal also, and benefits from having a strong conservative base too. Ron Paul could sustain his campaign as he did in 2008, relying heavily on the internet. But others lacking in a strong base will struggle unless they can obtain the support of either the Bush/Rove group, or Barbour's network, or Fox News and its allies.

Long form

There are three key steps to the Republican nomination: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Mitt can win only one out of the three (New Hampshire), leaving an opening for another candidate to win the other two.

There are four basic components of the Republican Party. To win the nomination, a candidate needs to obtain the support of at least two out of four:[29]

In 2008, John McCain won the nomination by capturing the support of 1 and 4 above. Ron Paul had the support of 2. Mitt Romney enjoyed support by 2 and part of 3. Mike Huckabee had support of 1 and part of 3. The division of 3 by Romney and Huckabee caused them to block each other: Huckabee blocked Romney in Iowa, and Romney returned the favor in New Hampshire. This dynamic prevented either from winning the nomination.

In 2000, George Bush won with the support of 1 and 3. But John McCain enjoyed the support from 2 and 4 and this enabled him to win the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, giving Bush a close contest. Some felt McCain mishandled his victory in Michigan.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan had the support of 1 and 2.

Potential Democratic Candidates

McClatchy-Marist survey after the 2010 Midterm elections revealed 46% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters said they don't want President Obama to face a Democratic primary challenge, with 45% saying they do want such a challenge to occur. 40% of Democrats and independents who lean towards the Democrats say they prefer a more conservative challenger, while 39% say they want a challenger who is more liberal. The Marist poll says,

“

Interestingly, a plurality of Democrats – 42 percent – would like to see a more liberal challenger while half of Democratic leaning independents – 50 percent – would like to see a more conservative one.

”

The McClatchy-Marist poll indicates that 48 percent of registered voters nationwide plan to vote against the president in 2012, with 36 percent saying they'll vote to re-elect Obama.

A Quinnipiac University survey released after the 2010 Midterm elections indicated that a plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected to a second term, and an Associated Press-GfK survey in the same time span indicates that 54% believe Obama should be voted out of office in 2012.[30] Former DNC chairman Ed Rendell suggested on MSNBC, liberal anger over Obama's escalation of the war in Afghanistan could lead to a primary challenge.[31]

The New York Times reported many liberals are so upset over recommendations by the Deficit Reduction Commission which President Obama himself created after the Democratic controlled Congress voted the idea down,[32] "if Mr. Obama were to embrace its major parts, he would invite a primary challenge in 2012."[33] Clarence B. Jones, who was a personal advisor, legal counsel, and close friend of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., has called for a primary challenge to President Obama.[34]

Ability to compromise and act in a spirit of bi-partisanship when his back's against the wall and career on the line; he's not Hillary Clinton, and he receives endearing support from the media.

He depends on a teleprompter to speak, and has run the nation into the ground. Numerous broken[36] and unfulfilled[37] campaign promises, implementation of socialist Obamacare program. Maybe uphill without help from ACORN.

Her criticism of Obama's massive deficits hinted at a possible run against him in 2012, and Ted Kennedy cannot interfere with her nomination this time; moreover, waiting until 2016 is unattractive because she will be 71 then. A recent Bloomberg poll shows she has a 64% approval rating, higher than any other national political figure.[38] Tested the waters with Bill backing a challenger to Obama's Colorado Senate candidate (who then lost), and by Hillary saying she won't serve a second term as Obama's Secretary of State. The chances of Hillary running and winning the nomination increase with every decline in Obama's approval ratings.

Has stated numerous times that she will not seek an elected position once she leaves her current position as Secretary of State. Her feminism is disliked by conservatives, but is popular with liberal women. She'd lose the general election as Martha Coakley did.

Pro-life, and ardently so, unlike most Democrats. Will make this issue, which most Americans agree with, the cornerstone of his campaign. Is a conservative, and argued in favor of Terri Schavio's family in the case to allow her to live.

Only recently joined the Democrats, in order to run against Obama in the primary; largely seen as a 'joke' candidate by most people; no media attention, and he likely will never get a chance to go up against Obama in a debate.

Liberal media personality, politician with physician's license and a former Vermont governor. Opposed Obamacare in its current form, and declared that government cannot force people to buy health insurance.

Could do well to rally the progressive base in the anti-war early primary and caucus states of Iowa and New Hampshire.[42]

Ethical concerns over his 2010 failed reelection bid for the House.

Heavily favored on MSNBC.

Independent Candidacy by Mike Bloomberg

The man who spent $185 per vote to garner 51% of the vote to remain as Mayor of New York City in 2009, Mike Bloomberg, is increasingly looking like an independent, self-funded candidate for president in 2012.

$185 per vote times 50 million voters equals $9.25 billion, which he can easily afford as one of the richest men in the world. The catch is that 50 million Americans are not as likely to be persuaded by self-funded campaign ads as 51% of New Yorkers were. Also, it is possible that money is becoming less influential in campaigns, not more so. The most likely result from a Bloomberg candidacy would be a split in the pro-abortion, pro-homosexual agenda vote with the Democratic nominee, facilitating election of the Republican nominee.

↑Traditionally commentators have referred to the three legs of the Republican Party: the values voters, the small businessmen, and the national security supporters. While that model still has support, it fails to account for recent shifts (such as the Tea Party Movement) and the impact of new media (such as FoxNews).