"We would typically have maybe two or three events around maybe 5.5 and 6 (magnitude) at about 150-200km depth a year under the North Island. It's slightly larger than average but it's kind of what we really expect."

But I think that what will make 2011 memorable will be some human events, and the Arab Spring, the Chilean student protests, the Wisconsin workers' anger, the Greek riots, and the English uprising (wait for the Tory Party conference protests in Sept) are only the start. But it could come down to the actions of one or two brave people to provide the spark. I think we could see some major 'the emperor has no clothes' moments that will positively change our way of thinking.

Rotorua, Taupo and Whakatane are set to be wiped out in a massive overdue earthquake, say geologists.

The shocking prediction has been made at a Natural Hazards Management Conference in Christchurch.

Geology experts Tim Davies and Mauri McSaveney have predicted that an alpine fault earthquake is overdue, and would result in the East Cape ripping away from New Zealand, destroying the plateau that Rotorua is based on and taking Taupo and Whakatane with it.

The pair say the earthquake will strike "out of the blue" and cause widespread death, shut down power generators, create tsunamis within New Zealand and overwhelm emergency services.

"The most likely time [for the quake] is now. The next most likely time for it to happen is tomorrow," Associate Professor Davies, of Canterbury University, told the conference.

There were, naturally, a number of other egregious flaws – particularly the bits about Maori – but that one was, um, special.

Indeed. Especially given that there were major earthquakes in1848 (Marlborough, destroyed nearly every brick or stone building in Wellington), 1855 (Wairarapa, 8.2 mag, tsunami in Wellington Harbour) and 1888 (North Canterbury, took the spire off Christchurch Cathedral).

The long list includes many more, including two biggies around the Whanganui River in 1838 and 1845. The former caused landslides and a backwash so large it left waka stranded up on cliffs.

I’d be feeling a bit brassed off with whoever wrote that pamphlet had I rocked up in 1836.

They have souls? Thought it was absence of, that caused this in the first place.

Of course they have souls, but they are taught to ignore them in the first year of their BCom.

Actually that isn't being facetious, they've done studies comparing BCom. students with other degrees and shown that one year of a commerce degree is enough to make people significantly more greedy and selfish. Apparently they learn that everyone else is selfish too so they should be selfish first ...