Is it 2002 all over again?

The latest 3 News poll has National down 2.5% to 45%, but Labour dropping even more (2.6%) to 26.4%. That is even lower than their 2011 result. So in National’s worst week, Labour drops even further.

There is volatility in the polls, but at this stage it is not people going from right to left. It is a transfer of votes within the right and left blocs. National losing to Conservatives and Labour losing to Greens and Winston.

The Conservatives at 4.6% is great news for them. Now it is just one poll, and let’s see what the others say. But it gives them what they need – relevance.

People will wonder what is the impact on the outcome if they made 5%? Well here is the result with them on 4.6% and 5.0%.

Conservatives 4.6%

Centre-Right 59 seats (Nat 57, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 53 seats (Lab 33, Greens 17, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would need the Maori Party to govern, and Labour would need both NZ First and the Maori Party (plus Greens, Mana)

Conservatives 5.0%

Centre-Right 62 seats (Nat 54, Conservatives 6, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 51 seats (Lab 32, Greens 16, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.

IGM

kiwi in america

Some thoughts about the RR/TV3 poll:
1 – The last RR poll before this poll reported National’s vote at the lowest end of the 4 major polls (Fairfax/Ipsos, CB/One News and Herald Digi) and even lower (from memory) than the more volatile Roy Morgan of all the polls taken in the 2nd/3rd week of August so National’s decline in this poll comes off the lowest base.
2 – This RR poll was conducted from Aug 20 – 25 where the majority of this polling period was covering a time when National and Key were being hammered still over the Collins OIA leak to Slater and still floundering to get back on message. National’s successful launch was on the last night of polling period so only 20% of respondents could be influenced by that event. If Key manages to keep up the message discipline and the Nats seize back at least some of the agenda off the Hager obsessed media, then this may represent a low point for National’s polling.
3 – The Conservatives managed about 1.3% higher in 2011 than they got in the last pre-election polls. It’s too early to tell if this result is an outlier for the Conservatives but if the trend of National votes leaking to CC continues in other polls, then the under sampling of C voters inherent in the polls could well see them cross 5%.
4 – Labour is still leaking support to the Greens and a little to IMP as Cunliffe has been far less visible in the Hager media firestorm.
5 – In 2011 NZ 1st was the recipient of disgruntled National voters after Key’s comments in the pot of tea tape although much more directly because the comment was about NZ 1st voters and it gave Peters a huge amount of outraged air time. That said, older National voters who don’t know or understand blogs in the modern political era, are more likely to be offended by Slater’s hard edged aggressive streams of emailed consciousness and NZ 1st, due to Peters age and his populist and silver top friendly persona, would be seen as a safer centre-right protest receptacle than Colin Craig.
6 – The poll reinforces National’s advertising – Labour can only govern with the Greens + IMP + Maori AND NZ 1st even with National at this low ebb due to their own low ebb. That is a hydra headed monster that Peters will not run with.
7 – Each poll that shows Labour down and the Greens up emboldens the Greens to demand more from Labour (e.g. the co-deputy PM role touted). Cunliffe refusing to rule out IMP on confidence and supply (because he needs them) makes it easy for Key to tag the Greens and IMP to Cunliffe by saying, rightly, that a vote for Labour is a vote for Greens in government propped up by Kim Dotcom.
8- Dotcom and Corkery’s extraordinary antics at the IMP launch are also not fully reflected in this poll but can’t have done IMP any favours and Hare’s defense of KDC’s boast about hacking the former German Chancellor’s credit was woeful and pathetic even by her standards.
9 – The Greens have consistently drawn 1.5% fewer actual votes than their pre-election polling due to their supporters being younger and more fickle – this has been consistent across the last 4 elections.
10 – The poll highlights that National’s ground game on election day needs to be spot on. The run up to 2011 was done against the backdrop of polling consistently indicating a govern alone scenario. A poll like this tells National’s campaign team that they need to fight for every vote and that there cannot be any complacency.

John Key needs to up his game. Bluster against Hager only has limited appeal. I can only surmise that either their internal polling tells them that the Hager effect was temporary and less than the media thinks or Collins’ supporters on the backbench have spooked Key into not asking for her resignation. If he does well in the debates and keeps the messaging on National’s economic management, he ought to claw back some of the lost support to create a sufficient buffer to weather the effects of the Dotcom September 15th ‘revelation’.

radvad

waikatogirl

Heard political reporter on Duncan Gardiner’s show say that Cunliffe had taken a day and a half off to prepare for tonights debate! There was laughter! Cunliffe must be packing himself going up against Key in a debate as Key is so relaxed and more importantly knows his answers backwards. Keep preparing C.

deadrightkev

Redbaiter is 100% right.

Craig will strike fear into the soul of the progressive National party if he ends up kingmaker as I suspect he will after the self inflicted Slater National dirty tricks. He has a fixed set of principles. National and Labour have a flexible set of principles depending on who will give them the levers of power.

No BCIR, then maybe a referendum on whether we should have BCIR is a good option. Either way the people should decide how they want their democracy. They haven’t had any for decades.

I suspect the reluctant fringe Nat conservatives have now realised the smiling Mr Key is a shameless facade. Its time to clean up parliament and get some real policy direction away from our rampant progressivism.

BushBaby

The latest poll reads as a slight shift to the right. NZF and CP are both centre-right parties and gained off Labour as much as Nats. So Dirty Politics has burnt Cunliffe as well (a singe maybe).

What I would like to know is are the polls based on population age demographics or age of voter demographics? These are two different things. Winston vote goes up on election day because his largely elderly vote always turns up. Greens, IMP, Labour more likely to stay at home – on computer, watching free streaming movies and eating KFC. Conservatives might also get same election day lift?

Good for John Key to have two viable centre right parties to play off one another. I am very relaxed about this poll. Labour must be in knots!

Scott

I agree with kev. The voter of traditional morals used to reliably go to the National party. However national have left them for the siren call of the soft left leaning Labour voter and to keep the mainstream media on side. I believe there are hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders who are vehemently against the social changes that have been snuck in over the last decade. Colin Craig hopes to get their support and despite unfair media attention he is likely to get it.

Yes, Act could be at 3.8% based on the MoE. Richard Prebble is the campaign director, but I know you know more than him about politics – you tell everyone here almost every day.

I’ll tell you what’s wrong about the Conservative Party campaign: blatant populism. You were one of the people, along with Peter Tashkoff, who argued vociferously for Act to stop the populism and campaign on principle, yet the stuff I am hearing from Colin Craig is straight out blatant xenophobic populism and dog-whistle politics. Act may only win Epsom and get 2% this election, but I am bloody sure we would never stoop to the level of the Conservatives and the unbelievable economic rubbish they’re espousing.

Riddle me this Kevin: How can a flat tax rate of 25% apply *after* a tax-free threshold of $20,000, and then including that tax free threshold being increased after every child you have so that if you have, say, 6 kids, under the Conservatives, you have a tax free threshold of $80,000. Where is the budget that can support that? Has the Conservative Party done one? I know the answer – and it’s NO!

grumpyoldhori

deadrightkev Craig will strike fear into National, with 5% of the vote how the hell will they manage that ?
Bloody hell some of you conservative supporters believe that Craig will be the next PM.
Now will the Conservatives go into coalition with National if they are told that we will not be going back to beating up small kids for fun ?

deadrightkev

Nick, you do yourself no favours by dredging up old smear campaigns because they backfired. Did Act go on to greatness during and after the Hide years? The sad tragedy that Act has become (despite great policies) and well intentioned people doing their utmost is laid bare for all to see. Peter Tashkoff is top shelf and principled. He was a huge loss to Act and so were the many others who walked and they clearly have never looked back have they?

No party has a suite of policies that are perfect and at the end of the day it comes down to the sincerity of the leader for me because he will hold sway when the going gets tough. I think Colin Craig and Jamie Whyte would work well together under pressure and against the National progressivism when it counts for NZ. That is exciting. That sadly was never going to be the case in the last two election terms.

Richard Prebble has failed in this campaign because he did not understand the basics of wiping the slate clean. He was a poor choice from day one because he is a John Key cheerleader who believes Epsom is the key to survival. I once admired him but he just wasn’t up to this job. How successful has Kenneth Wang been for the party and its polling? That was only one obvious clanger. I will keep the others to myself.

Still three weeks to go so the winner will only just be starting to sharpen. Race day 20th September.

from Kiwi in America above
quote
“– The poll reinforces National’s advertising – Labour can only govern with the Greens + IMP + Maori AND NZ 1st even with National at this low ebb due to their own low ebb. That is a hydra headed monster that Peters will not run with.”
unquote

Changeiscoming

grumpyoldhori you lost all credibility with this statement
“we will not be going back to beating up small kids for fun ?” You and other liberals don’t realise that the child abuse has never stopped! It has even increased since the AS law came into effect.