Sunday, May 13, 2018

My strenuous efforts notwithstanding, few people seem to
understand that the breakthrough between Kim Jong-un and President Trump is
being orchestrated by Chinese president Xi Jinping. By the terms of the
standard American narrative, Trump applied maximum pressure and Kim buckled. By
my version, Trump made a deal with Xi. The Chinese president would reign in his
obstreperous charge and Trump would give him something in exchange. What, we
know not. And least, not yet.

But, clearly, Trump has showered Xi with praise in his
tweets… honor that he confers on very few mere mortals. And he called Xi a true
gentleman, term that any Confucian will recognize as a very high honor indeed.
The basis for Confucian virtue is trustworthiness, the fact of keeping one’s
word. Apparently, Xi gave Trump his word and has kept it. Now, we will
eventually see what Trump offered in return.

Jane Perlez reports on the state of the game this morning in
the Times. Among other insights, she emphasizes the importance of the
relationship between Trump and Xi:

Chinese
experts said Beijing did not plan to flout the sanctions openly at this point.
However, China only reluctantly signed onto the sanctions last year, and
largely at the behest of Mr. Trump, who frequently praised it for punishing the
North.

Under
the sanctions, China has cut exports to the North of refined energy products
and stopped importing seafood, coal and also North Korean laborers, all
important sources of foreign exchange for the Kim regime.

To understand the negotiations, Perlez explains, you need to know what is happening on the
border between North Korea and China. She understands, as few have, the
extent of Chinese influence on the process. Evidently, the Chinese have been playing down their influence... in order to ensure that Kim does not lose face.

Perlez reports on what she saw:

Along
the Chinese border with North Korea, the evidence of Beijing’s leverage in the
coming talks between President Trump and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un,
is everywhere.

Footage
of China’s president, Xi Jinping, hosting Mr. Kim this week plays in a loop on
a big outdoor screen here in the city of Dandong, and residents are eager for
cross-border trade to resume as sanctions on North Korea are eased. Traders say
they are putting in advance orders for coal from North Korean suppliers. Some
exporters are already smuggling goods across the border.

Perlez tells us that Trump’s campaign of maximum pressure
would have been empty rhetoric if China had not been enforcing economic sanctions. The Wall Street Journal reported on the issue before. I
duly noted it on the blog. Here is Perlez:

The
Trump administration insists it will maintain its campaign of “maximum
pressure” on the North until Mr. Kim has shown “substantial dismantlement” of
his nuclear arsenal. But the buoyant mood in Dandong is a reminder that China,
as North Korea’s main trade partner, can decide how strictly to enforce the
international sanctions against it.

Beijing
has already positioned itself as a critical player that can shape the outcome
of the talks, which Mr. Trump said will take place June 12 in Singapore. The
reclusive Mr. Kim has traveled twice in the past two months to China to consult
with Mr. Xi, notably in each case just before hosting a visit by Mike Pompeo,
the new American secretary of state.

The
message both times was clear: Mr. Kim wants China’s support for his approach to
nuclear disarmament — a gradual, action-for-action process in which the North
is rewarded for each move it takes toward denuclearization.

In his
meeting with Mr. Kim this week, though, Mr. Xi endorsed “phased and synchronous
measures” that would “eventually achieve denuclearization and lasting peace on
the peninsula.”

Note also that Xi prefers a gradualist approach to ending
the conflict between the two Koreas. Of course, North Korea's economic development is more important than a mere peace treaty.

If the Trump administration is looking for
a grand finale treaty in Singapore next month, it will be disappointed. One
suspects that a Mike Pompeo is neither naïve nor uninformed about the process.

China
has many reasons to believe it will come out ahead in the coming talks.

For one
thing, its leverage over sanctions enforcement means its view on the main
issues — the method and pace of denuclearization — will carry weight with both
North Korea and the United States. Beyond that, it sees the prospect of
progress toward a longstanding security goal: the withdrawal of United States
troops from the Korean Peninsula.

As I have pointed out, Xi has probably offered Kim the
chance to become North Korea’s Deng Xiaoping. The economic revival of the North
will certainly be one of the most important aspects of the current
rapprochement:

During
the Dalian meeting this week between Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim, the Chinese heaped
praise on Mr. Kim for declaring that North Korea would now concentrate on
developing its economy, where an income of $200 a month is considered upper
middle class, and a Japanese bicycle is regarded as a luxury item.

Increasing
numbers of North Korean businessmen have begun returning to Dandong in the last
few weeks, since Mr. Kim’s first visit to China at the end of March.

3 comments:

It is clear that none of this could be happening without clear signalling to Kim from the Chinese. What, indeed, has been the exchange, and would we the people approve. It might be the Spratley Islands and all the other territory China is expanding into. That would be unpopular with conservatives, but as it might be something that is already past the point of no return anyway, no practical loss.

That sounds like a good suggestion. Here's another example, from the WSJ today-- where Trump is intervening directly to help out a chinese telecom co. https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-in-tweet-says-working-with-chinese-president-xi-to-keep-zte-in-business-1526225831