Profile: The seat is made up of the large island of Anglesey off the coast of north Wales and the smaller Holy Island. Apart from the industrial Holyhead it is large rural and agricultural and is largely Welsh speaking. The largest towns are Holyhead, a ferry port on Holy Island that serves as a major transport link to Ireland and Llangefni, the commercial and administrative centre of the island. The seat also includes RAF Valley and the Wylfa nuclear power station, planned to cease energy production between 2012 and 2014.

Politics: Ynys Mons (or Anglesey, as the seat was called prior to 1983) has been varied in its politics - it is one of very few seats that have been won by four different parties since the Second World War. Pre-war the seat had been a Liberal stronghold and was held by Megan Lloyd George, as the Liberals declined it fell to Labour in 1951. In 1979 it was won by the Conservative Keith Best, whose career was cut short after being jailed for making fraudulent share applications in 1987. Best was suceeded by Ieuan Wyn Jones of Plaid Cymru in 1987 but the seat was lost to Labour in 2001 after Wyn Jones stood down to concentrate on his Welsh Assembly role..

Current MP

ALBERT OWEN (Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. First elected as MP for Ynys Mon in 2001.

Past Results

2010

Con:

7744 (22%)

Lab:

11490 (33%)

LDem:

2592 (8%)

PC:

9029 (26%)

Oth:

3589 (10%)

MAJ:

2461 (7%)

2005

Con:

3915 (11%)

Lab:

12278 (35%)

LDem:

2418 (7%)

PC:

11036 (31%)

Oth:

5815 (16%)

MAJ:

1242 (4%)

2001

Con:

7653 (22%)

Lab:

11906 (35%)

LDem:

2772 (8%)

PC:

11106 (33%)

Oth:

581 (2%)

MAJ:

800 (2%)

1997

Con:

8569 (21%)

Lab:

13275 (33%)

LDem:

1537 (4%)

PC:

15756 (39%)

Oth:

793 (2%)

MAJ:

2481 (6%)

Demographics

2015 Candidates

MICHELLE WILLIS (Conservative) Educated at Woodhouse Grove School and Royal Free Hospital. Company director# and former nurse.

Tim, you can’t really say that as the Tories never won Caernarvonshire constituency in the post war era. They won Caernarvon Boroughs, which were enclaves within the wider Caernarvonshire Constituency. So for example, towns although Caernarfon town has been represented by all four parties in the post war era, Llandudno, and Conwy Town have not as they were hived off in 1950 (along with Bangor to form Conway) and thus have never been represented by Plaid Cymru at Westminster (Bangor would have been the same had it not been put into Arfon before 2010). So it’s only Caernarfon, Pwllheli and Criccieth etc. towns that have been represented by all 4 parties and these were by far the smaller element of the population in Caernarvon Boroughs compared with Bangor, Llandudno, and Conway. You can’t really compare like with like.

East Dunbartonshire certainly counts (I hadn’t previously clocked how odd the result there in Feb ’74 was, or the fact that remarkably for a fairly affluent seat the short 1974 parliament is the only time it has had a Tory MP).

Actually Caithness & Sutherland (et al) is up to 7 – in 1959 the sitting MP, David Robertson, went independent and held the seat as such without a Conservative opponent later that year. He retired at the 1964 election.

1945-1951 Independent Liberal (John MacLeod was nominated by a Liberal association unaffiliated to either Liberal party, though the press treated him as a Liberal National he initially intended to join the Sinclairite Liberals but they were wiped out in Scotland and he eventually joined the National Liberals post name change & merger)
1951-1964 National Liberal & Conservative
1964-1970 – Liberal
1970-1983 – Conservative
1983-1988 SDP
1988-2015 – Liberal Democrat
2015- SNP

With the polls as they are, this should really be considered a Con/Plaid marginal and not a Lab/Plaid one. Much like Berwickshire last GE, this is a seat closely contested by two parties hoping to gain the seat as the incumbent melts away.

I think that this one might be a Conservative gain. If Plaid fail to pick up Rhondda then this would come as a huge embarrassment for the party. Even worse if they are hard-pressed in Dwyfor Meirionnydd from the Tories.

Ieuan Wyn Jones has a long-standing very high profile locally. He must start as favourite in the light of Labour’s decline in the polls. Not sure about the Tories – parts of east Ynys Mon are commuter country for Bangor and they have held the seat in the past. Their current surge in Wales might be enough if they can find the workers to cover the seat. I would be surprised if Labour held on. PC will get plenty of help from students in Bangor.

If the last opinion poll for Wales, which showed a 10% swing from Labour to Conservative, proves half right, the Conservatives are in with their best chance of taking this seat since Keith Best’s surprise victory in 1979 (which is the only occasion the Conservatives have ever gained this seat?).

Worth noting that Anglesey narrowly voted Leave (in contrast to Gwynned on the other side of the straits) and there is a 15% UKIP vote to draw on.

The latest YouGov Wales poll have Plaid falling back 2 points, Labour up 5 and the Conservatives up 1. The changes are from the last Welsh Poll about two weeks ago which sensationally put the Conservatives ahead in Wales.

Using a universal swing (which I know is unlikely to happen all over Wales, let alone here) it gives the Conservatives the edge here.

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)