Russian politics

Why was Alexei Navalny released on bail?

LESS than 24 hours after Alexei Navalny (pictured with his wife), Russia’s leading opposition leader, was pronounced guilty, sentenced to five years in a prison camp and led away in handcuffs from the court room, he was returned to the same court-room and released from detention on bail, pending an appeal to the sentence. To make things even more bizarre, his release was requested by the same prosecutor who a day earlier demanded that he should be jailed. "I request that you verify the identity of Prosecutor Sergei Bogdanov," said Mr Navalny. "It's possible that it is not Prosecutor Bogdanov but his double. Because it was namely Prosecutor Bogdanov demanded that I be arrested in the courtroom." No Russian politician or lawyer could recall anything like this taking place ever before.

Few doubt that instructions to release Mr Navalny temporarily from police custody came from the Kremlin—just as the instructions to put him in jail earlier. The idea seems to be to give Mr Navalny a chance to participate in the Moscow mayoral elections on September 8th as the main opponent and a sparring partner to Sergei Sobyanin, the incumbent. Mr Sobyanin has called elections abruptly last month as a means to gaining political legitimacy. (At the moment he is a Kremlin appointee.) To make the elections meaningful he needed an opponent who would be recognised as a genuine opposition figure. Mr Navalny, one of the Kremlin’s main critics who had labelled its ruling United Russia a party of “thieves and swindlers” suited this role not least because he was way behind Mr Sobyanin in opinion polls for the mayor’s job which is widely considered an administrative rather than a political post.

These contradictory actions reflect confusion and disorder within the Kremlin itself. While the hawks, or silovoiki, wanted to lock Mr Navalny up for good, Mr Sobyanin needed him out of jail. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, will probably put Mr Navalny back in jail after the election, but he seems willing to satisfy Mr Sobyanin’s demand.

The news that Mr Navalny could be released came the day earlier just as his supporters gathered in the centre of Moscow, just outside the Kremlin, to protest against the harsh sentence. The rally was not sanctioned by the government and protestors were warned that they were likely to be beaten up and arrested. Yet some 10,000 people, mostly young and intelligent looking, showed up chanting “Freedom!” “Putin is a thief!” and “This is our City”. But there was no violence or provocations from either side. The police acted in a restrained and mostly efficient way. A few dozen people who were arrested were immediately released. This lifted the spirits of the protestors many of whom ended the day mulling over the events in Moscow’s open air cafes.

Mr Navalny was quick to attribute his release to the pressure from the street protesters. It may have more to do with Kremlin’s infighting. But whatever the reason the mood in Moscow is a lot more cheerful than it was only 24 hours earlier.

Left in office long enough, thugs can become genocidal maniacs. Remember Adolf Hitler was originally elected. That is why American presidents are limited to two terms in office and why the British elect parties, not prime ministers, so that the party can get rid of the prime minster half-way through the party's term in office (eg. Tony Blair after screwing up over the Iraq war.)

When you see premiers who have been in office for decades it is a sure sign of a dictatorship. In those cases you will find that the judiciary, police, army and civil service have all been politicised.

In the worst cases (hereditary dictatorships) fathers simply hand power to their son, assuming the son isn't an imbecile, and sometimes even then. In all cases, the treasury will be controlled by a family member.

There are several examples of such dictatorships in the world today, and some which are heading that way, eg. Sri Lanka and Russia.

Since Putin assumed power in Moscow, Russian political elites feel it is their right to live in open hypocrisy, and to scam the system.

Not long ago Sergey Ignatieff, former Head of Russia's Central Bank, made this comment about huge annual capital outflow (per 'Vedomosti'_):

“These payments may be for shipments of drugs, or …grey imports, or ….bribes and
kickbacks to officials …
Maybe it is a scheme for tax evasion.”

Russian Central Bank's study found that $49bn, representing 2.5 percent of GDP,
left Russia illegally in 2012. Of the total, $14bn was related to trade, with the remainder of $35.1bn in “dubious” capital transactions.

Given that the total net capital outflows was $56.8bn, thieves accounted for nearly two-thirds of Russia’s net capital outflow.
Keep in mind these are the Central Bank figures.

Putin is awesome! He could wipe the floor with every other world leader in a cage match!

When wildfires ravaged the Ryazan region of Russia in 2010, Putin didn't appear in front of a camera to assure residents that everything possible was being done, he appeared in the front of a Beriev BE-200 amphibious aircraft to do it himself and actually fight the fire. Not a chance Harper could do that.

He also fired crossbow bolts at a whale as part of an eco-tracking effort, proving that even when he's helping nature it involves at least medieval era weaponry.

In 2008 Putin visited Ussuri national park with a camera crew to see a trapped tiger when the adjective "trapped" suddenly, and pants-soilingly, no longer applied. Faced with the now-loose predator, Putin scooped up a tranquilizer pistol, dropped the tiger. Yeah! like to see Cameron do that!

He's also tagged and weighed a Polar bear, proving that he can wrestle a bear and win. Like to see Hollande try on a polar bear for size.

On an official trade visit to Japan in 2003 Vladimir took time out from negotiations to spiritually kick the entire country's ass with Judo. In front of the Japanese Prime Minister in the Kodokan judo headquarters of Japan, Putin demonstrated his willingness to take on any nation at its own sport.

In December of 2010, he played piano to raise money for a charity that supports children suffering from eye diseases and cancer. Proving he is a better singer than Obama

Putin graciously and publicly accepts naked pictures of college co-eds. Not just one girl from a university, but all the girls at that university, with female Moscow State University students sending him an erotic calendar of themselves for his 58th birthday. Napolitano, not a chance.

He actually wrote the book on Russian Judo, which you can buy right now called Judo:History, Theory and Practice. Though, in Russia it's called Judo with Putin.

"..mostly young and intelligent looking...". Intelligent looking? Does The Economist subscribe to phrenology? Obviously I was wrong in assuming TE has abandoned this quintessentially English pompous and snobbish disdain for those it might consider not suffciently well-bred or who had not had the privilege of being educated in England's elite institutions.

Good that the Economist made a quick check to make sure that the protesters looked intelligent. What was the glasses per head ratio? Were the craniums properly formed? Were there no, or relatively few signs of mongoloid features? Were noses, ears well-accented and pleasantly proportioned? Did eyes flash with youthful vigour and will to power? Did most features score a 7 or above using TE's unofficial physiognomy handbook?

"Yet some 10,000 people, mostly young and intelligent looking, showed up chanting “Freedom!” “Putin is a thief!” and “This is our City”. "

While there's a lot of positives to attribute to Putin (like he's not a genocidal maniac, a major positive for Russia), he is still a thug. I hope those young people get to survive their 30th birthday.

The very strength of these protesters is that they are not formally organised, no Socialist Workers placards, no Volga Tractors Workers’ cooperative being bussed to the protest. The whole success of the protests in Turkey, Brazil even Sweden etc is that they are individuals without a set political agenda or affiliations. This is the greatest threat to these monolithic political outfits who see conspiracy at every turn is that it is a bit like 'whack the rat' there is not a defined target to aim at. I would think that these protests would probably justify a claim that they were intelligent looking, indeed in Turkey speaking to many of these youngsters I was so heartened that they were from a huge range of backgrounds and just had the belief that what was happening was not right. I may have a rosy outlook but these youngsters' very strength is they are intelligent and principled, they will change many regimes for the better without formal organisation, keep going!

The real reason why Navalny is out is just as Putin said about Snowden - dealing with their US owners is like shearing a pig — "too much squeaking, too little wool" :D

Especially because the whole Navalny brahaha demonstrate that the irrelevant thief has much less supporters in Russia than his western owners anticipate - he got such insignificant numbers that even ultra left communist Limonov is more popular than him, heh, heh, heh :D

The recent Levada poll demonstrate that the SUM of all supporters of the Russia opposition is in the low 10%, while Putin still gathers the support of over 60% of the Russia population.

No wonder Putin is having a good chuckle at the west paid agents in Russia :D

I wonder what will happen to spiders and flies (and communist party employees whose job it is to troll sites like this one?). Pray China really has entered a new era, and isn't headed for another disconnect. After all, many in the finance community think China is heading for a financial meltdown.

Traditionally, after such a meltdown, the spiders, flies and trolls, assuming they survive the purge, must re-adopt the lifestyle of their ancestors, working the soil for a potato or two.