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Doug Ford closes on John Tory in latest Forum poll

Just two points separate the frontrunners in new survey.

Mayoral candidates (from left) Doug Ford, Olivia Chow and John Tory debated at York Memorial Collegiate Institute on Sept. 23. A new Forum poll suggests Ford has closed in on Tory in the race. (Lucas Oleniuk / Toronto Star) | Order this photo

These latest numbers suggest 39 per cent of voters want Tory for mayor while 37 per cent are supporting Ford. That means the two candidates are essentially tied — the poll had a sample size of 1,218 random voters, and a stated margin for error of 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

This is a “shocking upset,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“Doug had a fairly good week last week, but his partisans clearly think he had a great week. He has neatly filched 4 points off John Tory and added them to his vote share,” Bozinoff said.

The poll was conducted on Monday between 4:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m., with Ford’s rise in support coming in the wake of his controversial comments regarding Jewish professionals at Sunday’s mayoral debate.

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Ford said he was not stereotyping Jewish people when he told the crowd, “you know something, my doctor, my Jewish doctor, my Jewish dentist, my Jewish lawyer — hold it my Jewish accountant.” The line was met with laughs and boos from the audience.

The North York debate was sponsored by two Jewish organizations: the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs and UJA Federation of Greater Toronto.

Ford’s comments came after longshot candidate Ari Goldkind — who is Jewish — told debate watchers that the city can’t have a mayor who uses anti-Semitic language, in reference to a slur Mayor Rob Ford (open Rob Ford's poilcard) used to describe Jews while seemingly intoxicated in March.

Doug Ford later defended his comments at the debate, noting the Ford family has a “great relationship” with the Jewish community, and that his wife is Jewish.

Ford’s gains on Monday are also a striking contrast to the last Forum poll on September 29, where Tory led clearly, with 43 per cent of support.

That poll gave him a 10-point lead over Ford, at 33 per cent, and a 23-point lead over Olivia Chow, at 20 per cent. Those numbers were based on 1,167 randomly chosen survey respondents.

While Ford is eroding Tory’s frontrunner status, the new poll suggests Chow is continuing to falter. She only improved her share of the vote slightly to 22 per cent in Monday’s numbers. (Only two per cent of respondents cited support for a fringe candidate.)

Ford is leading in Etobicoke and Scarborough in the new Forum poll; Tory is leading downtown and in North York. For several months, Tory’s support has been on the upswing, and he’s held the top spot in every poll taken since July 30.

Chow’s support, meanwhile, has been on the decline since July.

Chow, Mayor Rob Ford and Doug Ford each had a stint in second place according to various polls taken since Tory gained frontrunner status.

Following Mayor Ford’s departure from the race on Sept. 12, Doug Ford and Chow have been battling for second — with the last few polls suggesting Ford had secured the spot, leading to Monday’s tie with Tory.

Ford reached a high of 34 per cent in a previous Forum poll on Sept. 12, while Chow has not cracked 30 per cent since the first week of July.

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