Monday, September 26, 2011

Most Meritorious Player: 1965 ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts.
Ballot Length: For 1965, each voter should rank 10 players.
Voter eligibility: All voters who did not vote in the previous year’s election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends. All voters must fill out a complete ballot. Voters must briefly explain their ballot choices. One person, one vote; anyone determined to have voted with multiple accounts will be banned and their votes will be disallowed. The MMP ballot committee has authority to exclude any ballot that does not meet these requirements.
Scoring: Points will be given in descending order with the highest-ranked player receiving 15 points, the second highest 14 points, and so on until the last player on the ballot receives 6 points. The player with the highest point total will be named the MMP for 1965. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be number of 1st place votes. If the first tiebreaker does not determine a winner the players will share the title of Most Meritorious Player.

Balloting will close at 4pm EDT on 5 October 2011.

Anyone can vote, even if you haven’t said a word yet in any of the MMP threads. If you missed the last election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 3 October 2011.

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1) Willie Mays - Baseball Reference WAR says 1965 was the best season of Mays' career
2) Juan Marichal - I'm still going with Marichal given the run context
3) Sandy Koufax - but Koufax made the decision really difficult. Koufax has the strikeouts and the innings and an outstanding postseason.
4) Ron Santo - Santo and Aaron are very close but Santo's value compared to his peers gives him a slight edge
5) Henry Aaron - Consistently in the top 10
6) Jim Bunning - Very good year from Bunning, superficially similar to his 1964 but he hit better in 65 and had more strikeouts. He lead the league in hit batters several times, didn't recall hearing about that before.
7) Zoilo Versalles - Best player in the AL, gets a slight postseason nudge. One beautiful season.
8) Jim Maloney - Good hitting gets him on the ballot
9) Jim Wynn - Missed out on ROY, too many PA in 1964. 43SB and 4CS is impressive.
10) Don Buford - trusting the defensive ratings here by ranking him ahead of Joe Morgan

2) Sandy Koufax - best ML pitcher without adding in any postseason bonus.
3) Billy Williams - edges out Oliva for best right fielder honors.
4) Tony Oliva - my pick for best Al player.
5) Juan Marichal - not that much of a gap between him and Koufax.
6) Dick Allen - best ML third baseman for the second straight year.
7) Ron Santo - nosed out by Allen once again for hot corner honors.
8) Zoilo Versalles - easily the best ML shortstop.
9) Hank Aaron - my ballot is never complete if his name isn't on it.
10) Stu Miller - best ML fireman and the first one to make a ballot of mine.

1 Willie Mays
2 Juan Marichal (his road ERA was a run lower than Koufax's)
3 Sandy Koufax (and yet I'm not sure Koufax wasn't better)
4 Zoilo Versalles (this is where my number put him, I don't like it, this year was flukish more ways that one, but I;m going to try to be consistent and objective)
5 Jim Maloney
6 Jim Bunning (could easily flip the two Jims, Maloney was better at keeping the ball in the park, Bunning at not walking guys)
7 Hank Aaron
8 Sam McDowell (I had an older cousin who claimed McDowell threw harder than Nolan Ryan.... obviously threw hard, but in 65 and every other year he had control issues, even accounting for era was good at keeping the ball in the park)
9 Billy Williams (Durocher came to the team in 1966, said Williams was everything he'd been told Ernie Banks was...)
10 Ron Santo (how does a team with 2 guys top 10 lose 90? Because after Williams and Santo just 1 other starter (Banks) was even league average- Santo and Williams had 15 WAR between them- everyone else aggregated to sub-replacement level- and I swear every MSM article I see on Santo and the HOF asks if he was so good why didn't those Cubs ever win anything?)
11-20: Don Buford, Jim Wynn, Chris Short, Joe Morgan, Mel Stottlemyre, Tony Oliva, Norm Cash, Roberto Clemente, Bob Gibson, Pete Rose

1. WILLIE MAYS – The Say Hey Kid turned 34 in May, but he shows no signs of slowing down. Led MLB in adj OPS+ by 24 pts with his 184. Led in Runs Created, Adj Batting Wins, OBP, SLG, Adj Batting Runs, Offensive Win Pct, he played in 157 games – even top 10 in Defensive WAR. A winner by every analysis on earth.
2. SANDY KOUFAX – I accept that Koufax had a significantly better defense behind him than Marichal, but between the Ks, weak popups and grounders, etc., I don’t see that benefiting Koufax as much as other Dodgers pitchers, frankly. Good Lord, the man struck out 382 batters in 1965! As noted in the discussion, big stretch run as well. And 335.6 IP, or 3 CG worth of IP more than any other pitcher in baseball. With all that, a mere 160 ERA+ can still get you here. Oh, yes, and then there’s the World Series. Easy No. 2.
3. BILLY WILLIAMS – 164 GP, 157 OPS+ - 3rd to Mays and Aaron. 2nd in adj batting runs. 2nd in adj Batting Wins, Runs Created, Times on Base, etc. Not a sezy player, but just enough quality and durability to hold off a career-year SS.
4. ZOILO VERSALLES – An excellent season, obviously, came up big for a pennant winner while playing a stellar SS. But he walked a dreadful 41 times in 728 PA, helping him place 2nd in Outs to the notorious Bobby Richardson of the Yankees. It leads to a 115 OPS+ - the league-leading 45 doubles and 12 triples are needed even to get there, though it’s an impressive number for the position and defense.
5. JUAN MARICHAL – A great season, in fact the best ERA+ in MLB. A solid 5th in MLB in IP as well. But he got suspended at a bad time, didn’t finish strong, and I’m not going to ignore what Koufax did in the postseason, either.
6. RON SANTO – Love a 146 OPS+ from a good 3B man – and also in 164 GP! Played every inning of every game at 3B for the Cubbies.
7. JIMMY WYNN – A 23-year-old for a bad team who hits .275 with 22 HR and 73 RBI – no wondered no one noticed him at the time. We see a 144 adj OPS+ from a CF, with 84 BB, and realize this is a sweet skillset.
8. HANK AARON – Easy for us to get bored with the Hammerin’ one after 12 years; this 160 OPS+ (2nd in MLB) is only his 6th-best, in fact. But he’s still a top 10 player.
9. TONY OLIVA – Not being dinged enough for his own low BB totals (55 in 647 PA, much better than 1964 but he was coming off a batting title and a 32-HR rookie season. Who wanted to pitch to this guy?) on some of the “advanced” metrics. A 141 OPS+ is very good but it is what it is.
10. CARL YASTRZEMSKI – Best hitter in the AL, but missing 29 games really hurts the cause, alas. Still swept SLG, OBP, OPS, OPS+ with a 2B crown to boot. Seems to have a shot at inner-circle stardom if he keeps this up for another 8-10 years. Sufficiently lapped the offensive field to withstand the games missed and claim a spot.

Close: McDowell. Like Richie Allen, but he really has to pound the baseball to get in, not good enough this time. Bunning and Maloney, excellent years but nothing close to Koufax and Marichal. Wills? lol

5. Ron Santo, 3B, Chicago Cubs: 146 OPS+, 121 RC, +7 fielding runs, 7.6 WAR- my formula placed Santo and Versailes in a statistical tie; despite my crush on Santo, I gave the edge to Versailes as the best player in this league

6. Sam McDowell, P, Cleveland Indians: 161 ERA+, 273 IP, 7.5 WAR- I had McDowell ahead of Versailes at first but I'm going to trust WAR and the less than impressive IP total on this one

9. Don Buford, 2B, Chicago White Sox: 120 OPS+, 87 RC, +20 fielding runs, 7.0 WAR- like I said in the discussion thread: it's "a weird year in the AL when Zoilo and Buford are the top two position players"

1. Mays. I said on my preliminary ballot, "I'm tempted to pick somebody else just for the sake of a debate but it can't be done." Koufax had a remarkable season himself, and yet I can't conjure up an argument as to why he was better than Mays.

2. Koufax. Up from #3 on my prelim. Only Gibson in '68 and Koufax himself in '66 get more WS than Koufax '65, but I think '65 was better than '66, ERA to the contrary notwithstanding.

3. Versalles. It's kind of a disgrace that both WS and most WAR have Oliva ahead of him. Up from #4 on prelim.

4. B. Williams. Up from #5 on my prelim. Overtook the better established corner OFs in the NL this year.

5. Oliva. Down from #2. You need a pretty good league strength deduction to any more NL OF ahead of him other than Mays, B. Williams and Aaron.

6. Marichal. Up from #8 based on the discussion here.

7. Santo. Up from #9 based on a head-to-head comparison with Aaron.

8. Aaron. Showing signs of decline but still one of the 10 best. Down from #7.

9. Wynn. Was not rated in my top 15 preliminarily. Like Santo, a vastly underestimated player, except here on BTF.

10. I would just as soon leave this slot blank. Wills? Burford? Deron Johnson? Colavito? I guess I will take Maloney, who also was not in the top 15 on my prelim.

@sunnyday2, regarding Versalles and Oliva:
I use 5 WAR and WARP systems and Versalles comes out ahead in 4 of them (and they're tied in the other)... it (Oliva getting rated higher) seems to be more of a win shares things (as both win shares systems I use have Oliva higher than Versalles). So... it's not as bad as you think! [my current rating, not yet finalized, which combines the 7 systems I use has Versalles ahead of Oliva (10th & 15th)].

I was still hoping to add Dan R's updated pitcher ratings (if he's able to create and post them) into my various systems but I should be busy the next few days and may not be able to post later than this so here's my ballot:

But you don't have to look at that many players every two weeks, only a half-dozen or so. If you had the time, you could re-look at others, but in a busy stretch, you didn't need to. Here, you always need to look at 20+. Not a criticism, as much as an observation.

But you don't have to look at that many players every two weeks, only a half-dozen or so. If you had the time, you could re-look at others, but in a busy stretch, you didn't need to. Here, you always need to look at 20+. Not a criticism, as much as an observation.

I understand what you're saying, Howie, but between the amount of time given for discussion and voting, we're talking about a month. That's more than enough time to figure out a 10-man ballot, IMO.

My issue is that at this point I'm more interested in the discussion than in the actual vote. But I think I'll put together a vote this time anyway. Some of it is using some of my older HoM methods.

Starting pitchers were very valuable in general. And if we're going to put Koufax and Marichal near the top, then there are several pitchers who really aren't too far behind. I did decide to put Koufax ahead of Marichal, which is using the post-season as a tiebreaker.

So here's a shot. Maybe not the most accurate thing in the world, but I'll go with it.

In response to DL from MN's comment in #20 regarding my thinking how weak the AL was this year:

Yes... and no. I certainly do think the AL was the weaker league... but the ratings I generated did not factor in league strength (well... unless some of the stats already have it built into them... but I don't think any of them do). I was going to discount the AL players some (not sure how much) but considering how the NL was already so dominant I decided to just leave it alone. By the way... a quick glance at your ballot makes me think you agree about the AL being weak! ;)

When Win Shares first came out, I was surprised to find out that Bill James was factoring in things like how many men were on base when someone hit a homer. That's exactly the kind of stuff that I had always agreed with Bill was luck, certainly not "clutch hitting." But when I thought it over for a bit, I realized that I was dealing with two different kinds of methods that derived from two different standards.

Previous sabermetric methods were designed to answer the question "how good is this guy" rather than "how valuable is he." If you hit an abnormal percentage of your homers with men on base, that's "value", but not necessarily quality. In fact, most analysts I know use the terms "rate" and "value" systems to differentiate between the two standards. I then realized that there are actually two different MLB awards for the two different standards. The Hall of Fame is designed to answer the first question. Luck is not supposed to be involved. This is especially true in the Hall of Merit. The MVP, however, is designed to answer the second question. I use "HoF credentials" and "MVP credentials" for the two because I think that adds info in that it identifies the awards thinking that the two standards are used for.

This has a lot to do with why I like this project. Here, I use MVP creds, which I avoid in the HoM. So this project gives me an extra perspective. I have tried using this argument to recruit people here, but I haven't succeeded yet. Sigh. Still, it may be worth trying, if you're also recruiting new people here.

As far as the voting here goes, it means that I weigh Win Shares more highly than WAR systems. I don't know of any WAR system that factors in the MVP stuff. If you do, I'm happy to have more than one source. Surprisingly, as I mentioned in last year's Ron Santo comment, the MVP creds match up better with my memory than the HoF creds do.

If you look at my ballot here, you will see this. What I basically did was take the Win Shares top ten, moved Marichal up because of his huge WAR number, and drop Oliva and Allen behind Santo. Other than that, this is a Win Shares ballot.

This, of course, has nothing to do with Willie Mays, who would finish first no matter what, but I've run out of interesting things to say about Mays when he finishes first yet again.

Sandy Koufax

Following up on the above, most people in the HoM, including me, factor in postseason credit. This is dicey there, as it's very close to being a "value" stat that is largely determined by who gets into the postseason, rather than how good they were. Here, however, it's a very relevant credential. Hence, this ranking.

Billy Williams

This ranking really surprised me. I think that Billy suffers from some of Frank Robinson's problem. He wasn't flashy. Just really, really good.

Juan Marichal

Huge difference between Win Shares and WAR. I have no idea why. It's worth remembering that Juan trails Billy Williams by only three Win Shares, which amounts, by definition, to one game won.

Zoilo Versalles

Dominated shortstops by a very large WAR margin. If I had the time to do my normal comprehensive look at all the positions, Zoilo might move up. However, he did win the MVP in real life, so I imagine he doesn't mind.

Tony hit the sweet spot for sentimental regret. Unlike, say, Herb Score, he played enough top years to completely establish that he was not a fluke. Then he totally lost his career to an injury. Tony Trivia - Tony Oliva is the answer to the question, "So, who actually finished SECOND to Zoilo for AL MVP?"

Richie Allen

So, this was Richie Allen's idea of a Sophomore Slump. Scary thought: Richie's next two years are even better than his 1964. I wonder where he will end up? Another fun feature of this project.

Jimmy Wynn

Willie Mays lite, with extra walks and strikeouts. You can, of course, be one hell of a player and still be Willie Mays lite. Hit .275, which would turn out to be his second-best batting average ever.

Hank Aaron

Sometimes, there are uses for individual player ballpark adjustments. Here in 1965, Hank had 32 homers; he would hit 44 next year, having moved to The Launching Pad. But his doubles dropped from 40 this year to only 23 in '66, and his batting average dropped from .318 to .279. These, too, are the ballpark. You see, in a very large park, like Milwaukee, if you have power, the outfielders have to back up some, even if they know you're unlikely to hit it out, because of what happens if one of your long flies gets behind them. So you hit more doubles and often for a higher average in the PITCHERS' park than in the hitters'. Batters who don't have power don't see this effect. So pitchers' parks often affect power hitters a bit less than slap hitters. The shape of the power hitters' stats changes if they change to hitters' parks, but there are losses as well as gains.

Sigh. Writing about Hank is getting a lot like writing about Willie, Billy, and Frank.

1965 Final MMP ballot. Say Hey it’s a great year to be watching the Giants - #1 and #3 are available for viewing. The components to ranking include WAR, WARP, WS, OPS+/ERA+, even a sprinkle of WPA. My junk stats take a break - busy enough that I'll get a ballot in under the deadline.

I probably have this election a bit closer than most. I think Koufax has a claim on the #1 spot for WPA/LI reasons. Mays was very 'clutch' this year, though. The WPA effect is why I move Allen ahead of Santo, where Brock has them the other way round. I think I could also make a case for moving McCovey up two places, or maybe Wynn up one, or drop Allen down two; but at some point one has to stop pondering and just vote. Similarly, I could convince myself of many different permutations for 8, 9, 10, including players who aren't on this ballot (Don Buford, Boog Powell) as has been the case each year of this project. I'm getting to the point now where I might just throw the remaining names from my shortlist into a hat for those spots and construct arguments for the three who get picked as a rhetorical exercise.