In the absence of a podcast here at TFMR, please take the time to listen through all three segments of Andy's visit with Eric King yesterday (once they're finally posted). When we spoke yesterday, Andy told me not to expect anything too earth-shattering but I'm confident that it's worth your time, nonetheless. He and I plan hope to record something either Monday or Tuesday so look for that early next week. In the meantime, here are the KWN links:

If you haven't already, you're going to be reading a lot this weekend about yesterday's Commitment of Traders report. As you know, I like to review it right when it comes out and then post a sort of "instant analysis". Here's a c&p of my thoughts from yesterday, in case you missed them:

GOLD: For the week, price fell about $45. While this was taking place, the LargeSpecs added 1900 longs and a jaw-dropping 25,000 shorts! The LS net long ratio falls to an very bullish 2.12:1. The SmallSpecs got in on the act, too. They dumped 400 longs and added nearly 5,000 new shorts. This is an extremely bullish, contrary signal.
But the real action was by The Cartel. They added 4,300 new longs and covered an incredible 24,200 shorts. Again, who was buying while the specs were busy shorting? And who do you think will, ultimately, profit??
The Cartel net short ratio now stands at an extremely bullish 1.83:1.

SILVER: Almost identical to gold. Simply astounding, amazing and incredible.
For the reporting week, the price of silver fell about $1.60. Look what was happening internally:
The LargeSpecs dumped 1,150 longs and added 4,450 shorts. After reaching an unheard of extreme of 6.5:1 just two week ago, the LSpec net long ratio is all the way back to a mildly bullish 3.1:1
The SmallSpecs added 500 longs and 3700 shorts. Again, as in gold, the specs are racing to get short.
The "commercials"...pretty much all big firms except JPM and their con-conspirators...added another 2,026 longs, bringing their total gross long position to a never-before-seen 54,208. Simply incredible! They've continued to add longs all the way down. What do they know? What are they expecting??
The Silver Cartel...namely JPM and their two or three pals...were finally able to cover 6,800 of their disgustingly large short position. It's still disturbingly high at 92,164 but the total commercial net short ratio, which last peaked in September of last year at 2.6:1 has now declined to a quite bullish 1.7:1 Nearly every drop in The Cartel net short ratio to near 1.5:1 has preceded a substantial rally. We are very close!
All in all, both CoTs are extraordinarily bullish and indicative of a bottom very soon. Hang in there, now. Your patience will soon be rewarded!

Now, let me just add a couple of things:

Getting the Gold Cartel net short ratio all the way down to 1.83:1 is a very good sign. For perspective, at the lows of late December 2011 and summer 2012, the Cartel net short ratios were 1.98:1 and 2.01:1, respectively. And this week's data was surveyed on Tuesday, before the big drop on Wednesday. All in all, the gold CoT is very bullish.

Please also consider the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel. After the last four price washouts, here are your net short ratios at the bottom: On 8/14/12 it was 1.49:1. On 12/27/11 it was 1.34:1. On 10/4/11 it was 1.48:1 and on 6/28/11 it was 1.79:1. As of last Tuesday, it had fallen 1.7:1.

And, finally, this theory....note the emphasis on theory. Regular readers know how perplexed I am by the silver OI situation. The primary outlier is the Commercial Long position. It "should be" somewhere near 30,000-35,000 contracts by this point in the price cycle. Instead, it grew again last week to 54,208. Chew on this: What if the 20,000 contract difference is, in fact, JPM trying to square away their naked short position that Uncle Ted estimates to be around 30,000. Now, stick with me on this... They tried to lessen it by covering back in April 2011 and the result was a near-cataclysmic event for them that was only rectified by the Sunday Night Massacre and the collusive CME margin hikes. Since then, they've maintained their position as The Big Short but, beginning late last summer, they began to build an equally-large long position. Again, stay with me here... They've added shorts through the fall to keep a lid on prices until they're ready to let it go, either voluntarily or involuntarily. If this is the case...and that's a very big IF...JPM could be approaching the point where they would be short 25,000-30,000 contracts AND long 25,000-30,000 contracts. At that point, if forced to exit the shorts, they'd be fully hedged and even profiting on the UPside.

Anyway, just chew on the 3rd point over the weekend. The more I think about it, the more it explains the "commercial long anomaly" and it provides JPM an exit strategy should the toothless CFTC ever choose to call them out.

Here are your updated charts. Given the CoT structure, I feel very comfortable declaring that a bottom is near. (And obviously hope that, by doing so, my Google ad revenue will increase.)

And just a couple of other items that have found their way into my inbox. First, this interview from last fall that details the whys and hows of gold manipulation:

Speaking of GBI, for now they are still the only bullion and storage affiliation that this site has. Many of you have purchased from them and I am very grateful for their support. If you are buying coins and bullion, please be sure to check them out. You can link to them trough the ad on the right side of the page. I'll soon be adding affiliations with GoldMoney, SilverDoctors, Provident and JMBullion, too, so please be sure to always consider them when looking the BTFD. (Which I would strongly encourage you to consider doing this weekend.)

OK, I think I'll stop there. I hope that you have a safe and relaxing weekend. You certainly deserve some serenity after the madness of the past two weeks. But keep the faith as this, too, shall pass. The metals have simply been forced back to the bottom of their 18-month price ranges and will soon begin to rebound as physical demand and the glaringly obvious fundamentals begin to take over.

TF

p.s. You've got to check this out. The trollololo song is going mainstream!! I sure hope that the dead Russian guy's estate is getting a little skin out of it...(Thanks to my pal, DocD, for passing it along!)

the 90%/LCS updates this weekend all seem to be "not much 90% available". i frequently talk with the owner of the shop here and he seems to be neutral on silver price action. i listened to Sprott recently and and his math was simple:

11 to 1 being mined silver to gold

50+ to 1 ounces of silver to gold being purchased

50/50 silver to gold total dollars being spent for the precious metals.

When you subtract the industrial use of silver from the current mining production, there should be a serious drying up of physical silver inventories. Consideing this 50 to 1 ratio for the last several years and it is easy to see where the silver is coming from, dishoarding of old 90% silver. several years ago i would not buy any 90%, it was completely worn old beat up coins ready to be scrapped, nothing worth stacking imo. i primarily bought ASE's, phillies and maples. Recently (the last 18+ months) I have noticed that the quality of the 90% has gotten better as far as condition and the numismatic value (collectable, dates and mint marks). people and dealers alike are have been selling into this market and perhaps now are finally exhausting this "silver inventory" too.

I am not certain of the timeline, of course, but I am certain of the event.

Silver is in shortage on a macro level. Its nearing so on a micro level for trading and hoarders. This is all we need to know about the future wrt price.

CoT is turning sour price wise for immediate term. It has turned extremely positive for fundamentals immediate term. CoT is setting up for short(er), intermediate and long term prices advances. And fundamentals are remaining there. So of the 4 quadrants, only one is terrible and that is immediate price. And likewise...it should be given the changing structure of the CoT.

Above, Raising the Funds to Buy the Presidency, by artist Joseph Keppler, Sr., depicting Republican fund raisers in the guise of medieval clergy selling indulgences (i.e., back before/during Martin Luther, the church would sell tickets to Heaven, in which people could be absolved for any sin, for enough money “donated” to the church). Implied in this cartoon, is that donations could buy you government jobs and possibily pardons/absolutions for crimes. From the centerspread of the August 12th, 1884 issue of Puck magazine.

After all the press he got here I decided to listen to him this week and wonder whether I listened to the wrong episode since he seemed to be well informed and right on track.

1. The most important thing I believe he said is that silver needs a spark to reverse and move significantly higher. I guess this could be some economic or geopolitical event.

2. The specs/hedgies have been shorting like crazy driving price down.

3. Until the spec money sitting on the sidelines starts to flow into silver, price will be depressed.

4. Once it moves up there is huge fuel in short covering to maintain an up move.

Seems to me this is what most folks are saying although they might phrase it as the Cartel offloading shorts onto the large specs. Once the offload stops and the large specs start buying the market will turn. This is essentially saying #3.

Eight government officials and employees from banks or securities firms were convicted for "leaking CPI figures to the press and endangering national economic security," the Beijing-based Legal Evening News reported on Feb. 22.

Law enforcement officers discovered that many foreign press organizations, such as the Reuters, had pin-point accurate figures for China's CPI in their stories between 2008 and 2011, said Legal Evening News. Reuters, for example, has reported CPI related stories "with accurate figures seven times" that has "endangered the authorization of China's Statistics Bureau."

Top officials in the bureau, a Shanghai-based securities firm, the central bank, and an assets management firm all received 4-6 year prison sentences on charges on "leaking national security."

Trial for another four defendants is still pending.

Wu Zhaoming and Zheng Fei, employees at the securities firm and bank, respectively, were the only defendants who "admitted to the crime" after they were arrested. Zheng said that he was merely trying to impress his competitors by looking "well-connected" and sharing his information with the press upon being approached.

"I never thought this would be this serious," Zheng said. "I regretted what I did."

Reality can be so complex that equally valid observations from differing perspectives can appear to be contradictory.

The government has no intention of addressing joblessness, the growth of poverty, hunger and homelessness. Instead, it protects and expands the wealth of the corporate/financial elite by maintaining high unemployment. So that big business can use the scarcity of jobs to drive down wages and cheapen working conditions.

Far fetched? Consider;

There were 725,000 more private sector jobs as of end December 2012 than at the end of 2008.

However, there were 697,000 fewer government jobs in December 2012 than at the end of 2008.

The largest four-year decline in government employment since the ending of World War II.

One may think that with all the emphasis of the administration on creating jobs, that it would protect any gain in employment. Not so. This trend in downsizing the governmental workforce is continuing at an accelerated pace. Federal, State and local. Any job gains in the private sector are more than offset by job loss in the governmental sector.

All is not what it seems to be. Another fundamental to consider when listening to all the MSM hype!

The finance ministers and central bankers of G20 member countries tried to talk down the risk of a currency war in a meeting held earlier this month.

However, the world's major economies may not be able to avoid one.

G20 members promised that they would not wage a currency war, but none have shown signs of scaling back monetary easing that has injected a flood of cash into global markets. They worry that removing the stimulus will plunge their economies into another recession.

Since Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe took his post, the yen has fallen by 20% as a result of bold inflationary moves. The yen has been veering between 92.30 and 94.30 versus the US dollar over the past couple of weeks, the lowest in more than a year.

"Since Abe's stimulus policies have not yet been fully implemented, we can estimate that the yen will continue to weaken in the mid-term," said Chen Hanhua, an analyst with the Bank of China.

Policymakers in neighboring economies, especially South Korea and Taiwan, are already deeply concerned about a weaker yen. A number of Asian currencies have successively devaluated in recent times, sparking fears of a new currency war.

Central banks in several developed countries also pledged further monetary easing this month in an effort to accelerate their economic recovery. Bank of England governor Mervyn King said the British central bank stands ready to provide more monetary stimulus. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi promised to monitor the impact of a strengthening euro. The Reserve Bank of Australia has also left the door open for a rate cut.

"The QE (quantitative easing) policies of major global central banks are big trouble. Dramatic increases in and the likely subsequent withdrawal of liquidity could cause boom-and-bust cycles in some emerging economies, such as China," said Deng Wei, investment director of the SS Investment Company.

Despite the looming risk of a currency war, the renminbi has been surprisingly absent from the spotlight. This is mainly because of an emerging consensus that the yuan's exchange rate is close to equilibrium, as China's central bank deputy governor Yi Gang told media at the end of January.

"A significant depreciation for the yuan looks unlikely, as Chinese policymakers are worried about financial stability," said Huang Yiping, chief economist with Barclays China. A sharp depreciation of the yuan could trigger massive capital flight.

Sensitive relations with trade partners have also made Chinese policymakers reluctant to weaken the country's currency. "If the yuan falls, China will see retaliation in exports, such as more tariff barriers," said He Jun, a senior analyst with Anbound, a Chinese macroeconomic consulting firm.

A dramatic increase in liquidity has already inflated energy and commodity prices, indicating that China needs a relatively strong currency to offset imported inflation, said Deng.

Huang said that if China's economic growth continues to stabilize and capital inflow increases, pressure for the yuan to appreciate may mount again.

He added that the yuan is likely to appreciate moderately by 2% against the US dollar in 2013.

So as promised here is a simple chart showing the positive correlation and close relationship between the Pound and US Dollar.

As i said the "special relationship" is real as UK and US economies represent and own the current financial system. I brought this up disagreeing with TF not for the sake of it or to get involved in an argument, but for the fact i think that with such a large platform and viewership its important for people to receive accurate non opinionated information that may help them. Not just some passing comments about the GBP down = DXY strength.

anyway. As i said before. I think this (UK downgrade) is broadly negative USD event as it represents the 1/4 of the Anglo sphere, which the US is obviously a big part of.

I would not be surprised for the USD to open down and the EUR up.. Pound down obviously.

I also think metals are going up this week and am looking for two down days (at any time) to confirm and two down months (including this one) to end this cycle (they could be new lows but do not have to be)

if im wrong then im wrong.

best of luck all

Chart bellow is of various cross' to just show the situation AUDGBP AUDUSD NZDUSD NZDGBP GBPSEK USDSEK

you get the idea.

as we can see something broke in 2008 when this US UK financial and monetary crisis began. Its a US UK problem that they exported to the world.. and it is coming home to roost.

I would think the UK downgrade from AAA would have some kind of notable effect after they waited to announce it after the markets closed on Friday.

I would also think gold and maybe silver would open a little higher with a major Govt./BOE taking a hit like the US did and having a similar reaction that spills over to gold/silver rising in other currencies also. Maybe the PM's don't initially trade higher as the asian market is prone to mostly fall when it opens but overall I think it would trend a bit higher. You would think so.

Except that in a upside down market complex maybe they'll just mercilessly knife the PM's viciously lower to really spook buyers away from them. Crazy times.

Those large specs that have been long in gold added 1929 contracts to their long side
Those large specs that have been short in gold added a monstrous 25,113 contracts to their short side.

Our commercials:

Those commercials that have been long in gold added 4327 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in gold covered a monstrous 24,244 contracts and the supplier of that paper was the large specs.

Our small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in gold added a tiny 415 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in gold added another 4972 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion: hugely bullish for two reasons:

1: the commercials went net long by a wide margin of 28,571 contracts. This must be a record..

2. the large specs went hugely net short and they will be annihilated.

A new paper for the US Monetary Policy Forum and published by the Fed warns that the institution's capital base could be wiped out "several times" once borrowing costs start to rise in earnest.

A mere whiff of inflation or more likely stagflation would cause a bond market rout, leaving the Fed nursing escalating losses on its $2.9 trillion holdings. This portfolio is rising by $85bn each month under QE3. The longer it goes on, the greater the risk. Exit will become much harder by 2014.

Eric Sprott's findings support the growing meme that there is a massive bullion transfer from West to East. This should particularly concern those in the U.S., EU and Canada as his suspicion is that, increasingly, it's monetary gold that is being sold. "We are well into the financial crisis. Everyone’s trying to keep it together, even though it would appear from the reading of the economy things are not going well at all here. And everyone's ignoring things. But I think, in their hearts, the Central Bankers must know what they’re doing is totally irresponsible. And the tell of that irresponsibility – which is the debasing of the currencies – is the fact that real things will go up in value. This should be reflected in the price of gold and silver." For precious metals holders licking their wounds from the carnage of the past several months , this note offers both new insights and sound reminders of the long-term reasons for owning gold and silver.

I can understand why people want the metals to stay low so they have a chance to buy more at low prices. I'm not in that category. I would hope that there is plenty of people here, although I don't know, that have already made money buying metals at pre-2008 prices. If you have, congratulations, you've been rewarded with all your metal leveraged purchases including miners. You've been rewarded before waking up before the crowd. And now you are looking for the bull market to continue it's journey. You bought at $800, 1000, 1200, 1500, and didn't worry too much at all those levels that people kept saying it was too expensive. You didn't keep saying, boy hope it goes lower. You hoped it went up and bought anyway. You outperformed inflation and you made profit if you were silly enough to sell. People who were in the miners made millions.

I know you guys want more time to buy but how much time would you like? Maybe you have a modest 6 figure salary? Maybe bring home a grand a week, pay the rent/mortgage, bills, food, some wine and entertainment. Even if the bull market is delayed another year, how many coins ya think you can add to the stack in a year? The reality of the situation is that when gold is 2000, 2500, ya still gonna have to convert that fiat. But the added bonus is that there are many more ways to leverage a raging bull market than just stacking. Hoping to add 5 or 6 more coins to your stack and wishing for lower prices is telling me you ain't thinking about all the other ways, you could levarage a bull market and also add to your collection when things get moving again. Plus whatever you can add over these shot periods of time, ain't gonna really change your lifestyle.

Financial repression is growing more and more repressive. Your money is buying less. It would be nice if the metals reflected the economic situation we are facing.

Anyway, this is all philosophical and unimportant. We each want what we want that suits us. I want some modicum of fairness and true price discovery in the market instead so I can make real money. Not looking for some silver lining living in a controlled market and society. There is much more money to be made going up. Unless you are one of those expert traders. And seems like a few around here that know how to go short on the market.

Does Eric Sprott, Andrew Maguire, Peter Schiff want the metals to go down? NO! Think like a person who wants to make wealth by leveraging a moving market.

Just a quick one about the wedding posts that were here. One way might be to ask guests to bring money in a decorative envelope and to present it at the reception party where it is collected at a table by friends of the bride/groom (young female friends of the bride usually well attired). Crisp notes of anything from 100 - 600 dollars or more if they feel like it !!!) are placed inside and the attendants present a formal attendance sheet. Everyone knows that this money is used to defray the cost of the wedding ceremony and the reception. It works very well as everyone knows where the money is going and are receiving some of the benefits by being at the wedding enjoying the day etc etc.

I'm not sure how they'll accomplish it but at some point they'll have to raise interest rates and the Fed may have telegraphed that just recently. I know it flies in the face of what we believe regarding the Fed being cornered and what that Telegraph article from AEP states. All of which I believe to be true if everything was on the up and up regarding their shadow accounting methods.

If honest and accurate accounting procedures were in place by the Fed and all other CB's I might think that they can't raise rates but as we've seen they are capable of many things and many more to come.

Raising rates at some point will happen because they'll resort to real and obvious inflationary methods if it's the last thing they do and go out in a ball of inflationary fire before they allow themselves to fizzle out in a deflationary scenario like Japan finds itself and is now going the extreme route it seems.

The Fed will raise rates at some point even if it's the last straw for them and it doesn't seem mathematically possible in a balance sheet way to any of us. It hasn't stopped them yet, has it?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is preparing for a most sensitive task: telling jittery investors who have grown accustomed to the central bank's ultra-easy monetary policies that things will eventually have to change. Full Article

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DISCLAIMER: The charts and analysis provided here are not recommended for trading purposes. Trade at your own risk. The Turd provides knowledge not direction. Turd holds no liability for your trades and decisions but he's happy to take credit when credit is due, particularly through the "donate" button. Read more...