Politics & Power

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With the increasing likelihood of neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton winning the 2025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the August Democratic convention every state has become a battleground for delegates and the so-called “Super Delegates” (delegates comprised of Party officials and high ranking Party members who can vote for whomever they choose) are looming larger and larger as the potential deciding factor in the election.

In the view of some Democrats including some high ranking Party officials this is a worst-case-scenario for the Party. This situation points to a high likelihood of a brokered convention meaning that only through negotiation will the Democratic nominee be determined. If past history is to be any indicator of the outcome of such a brokered convention it may mean another four years in the White House for Republicans. Brokered conventions tend to be contentious and the end result of them is a fractured Party that does not tend to come together in the general election.

With Obama’s lead growing and the increased possibility of him going into the convention with more pledged delegates in his pocket pressure may begin to mount on Hillary Clinton to step aside and allow the Party to crown Obama the nominee. Over the weekend Howard Dean hinted at a compromise solution for the Michigan and Florida delegates to be able to be heard at the August convention. The Party may pay for a special mail-in election in both states to allow for a fair race in light of the fact that Obama followed Party rules and did not campaign in either state and had his name removed from the Michigan ballot giving Hillary Clinton easy wins in states she ran in with little opposition. The governors of both states have indicated a willingness to pursue such a course and the Obama campaign has also said that would be an acceptable solution to the issue. The Clinton campaign has been less enthusiastic in supporting such a plan. From their perspective there is a potential for a weakening of their position in a run-off type primary or caucus in the two states. The Clinton camp has pushed for accepting the votes as they stood in January without holding another election.

As it stands now, if Michigan and Florida are excluded due to their earlier primaries in violation of the Democratic Party’s rules, Barack Obama will likely take the nomination. Hillary Clinton as of yet does not have a sufficient lead in Pennsylvania (the only remaining big delegate prize) to overtake Obama and cannot count on winning any of the other remaining primary states. If there is a revote in Florida and Michigan it is anyone’s guess what the outcome will be. With only two names on the ballot it will likely play out a little differently than it did in January. Clinton might still win the states but the question will then become by how much she can win them. With the Democratic system of split delegates there may not be enough states left for Clinton to close the growing gap.

For now the Obama camp seems set to extend their lead and keep fighting for the nomination against the formidable Clinton political machine. With Texas now projected to give Obama a delegate count win due to a better showing in the caucuses it seems that forces are aligning in Obama’s favor. What remains to be seen is if the Clinton camp will continue to fight it out or try to come to some settlement with the Obama camp to give the Party a better chance of winning in November.