Rubio’s 2016 strategy: Become everyone’s second choice

posted at 9:01 pm on May 1, 2014 by Allahpundit

That headline sounds like a joke but I think this is smart strategic thinking. Given the cards he has to play, this is how he should play them.

The former Florida House speaker, just four months into his fourth year in Congress, has avoided travel to the early primary states. He isn’t busy jockeying for position. Rather, he has quietly focused on building a political organization that would serve as the basis for a presidential campaign, burnishing his policy and legislative resume, and honing the Image of the sort of consensus Republican who historically has captured the GOP nomination.

Rubio’s approach to 2016 has been crafted with one goal: To become the first choice of “many” GOP primary voters and the second choice of “even more.” His advisers envision assembling a solid base of support that prefers Rubio above all others, while attracting the admiration, or at least imprimatur of acceptability, of an even larger group that would gravitate to him if their first choice falls short…

[Rubio's steering] Committee members have committed only to raising money for Rubio’s 2016 Senate re-election and Reclaim America, his political action committee. But in interviews with a half dozen members, they said a Rubio presidential bid is appealing because he is a mainstream Republican capable of uniting the party and winning the general election. Rubio might be called a Tea Partier because of his staunchly conservative record and because he won his Senate seat by challenging a sitting Republican governor, but they contend the label is a misnomer.

I’ve always thought Rubio’s support of immigration reform last year was part of a calculated gamble to position himself for a presidential run. (Which is not to suggest that he didn’t support the bill on the merits. I’m sure he did, contrary to pretty much everything he said about immigration as a candidate in 2010.) He knew that if he spent six years in the Senate as a pure red-meat Ted-Cruz-style tea partier, the GOP establishment would have written him off as a conservative ideologue who could never be trusted with the party’s nomination. That’s a bad place to be for an aspiring pol given the establishment’s track record in presidential primaries. So he took a chance. He decided to try to impress the donor class by quarterbacking the Senate’s big amnesty push, specifically by selling the bill to the reluctant right. If he had pulled it off and gotten tea partiers onboard, he’d be the prohibitive favorite for the nomination, the guy who worked political magic in converting right-wingers to the cause of amnesty. He rolled the dice on that and lost — but only with righties, not with the establishment. They were grateful for the effort, of course, and now had reason to see Rubio as something more than just a Cruz-type dogmatist. (See the quote in the excerpt above about his own steering committee rejecting the “tea party” label.) Meanwhile, it wasn’t an outlandishly crazy bet for Rubio to think he could have brought conservatives onboard. The guy got elected to the U.S. Senate in a major state before he turned 40; his retail skills are formidable, to put it mildly. If anyone could have sold the bill to amnesty skeptics, especially while the media was trumpeting the GOP’s washout with Latino voters in the 2012 election, it’s him.

Didn’t work, though, so now he’s in a strange position electorally. He’s liked by the establishment, although not quite as much as Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, and disliked by the base — although not quite as much as Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. He’s not going to beat Jeb or Christie straight up in a battle for the establishment and he’s not going to beat Ted Cruz or Rand Paul straight up in a battle for the right. (Actually, he might have a shot against Paul depending upon how big of an issue Paul’s foreign policy views become on the right.) So he’s maneuvering himself as a compromise candidate: If Bush or Christie beats Cruz and Paul early, the Cruz/Paul fans *might* flock to Rubio as a guy whom, while not ideal, can at least stop the greater RINO. If the opposite happens, with Cruz or Paul squelching Bush and Christie early, the establishment might swing around to Rubio as a guy whom, while not their first choice, can at least potentially stop the tea-party monster. In other words, Rubio understands his niche in the race — he’s no longer anyone’s frontrunner but he can still be a highly effective “anyone but X” choice to whichever faction is eager to stop Candidate X in the primaries. The trick for him is figuring out how to maintain that niche if/when Scott Walker jumps into the race. Walker is the ultimate 2016 wild card because he’s playing on the same middle ground as Rubio but without a major liability like Rubio has. If you’re not comfortable with either the hardcore RINOs or the hardcore conservatives, a description that fits oodles of “somewhat conservative” casual Republican voters, it’s the guy with executive experience who vanquished the unions, not Rubio, who’s your guy, no?

One thing to watch out for, though. If Jeb doesn’t run, Rubio may transform himself into a full-bore establishment candidate, calculating that he can defeat a weakened Christie head to head for the donor class’s support. You’ll know if he starts talking up immigration reform again that that’s the way he’s going. Exit question: Pretend that Rubio had never supported the Gang of Eight bill and was still a conservative in good standing with the base. Where would he rank now compared to Paul and Cruz in the battle for the tea-party vote in 2016?

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Its the economy stupid. That should be the focus of any GOP candidate. Illegal immigration, Obamacare, the Keystone Pipeline and domestic oil, etc. all tie into the economy.

Rubio undermines the economic issue by supporting “comprehensive immigration reform.” This is what causes the Republican base, particularly the blue collars, to sit home during elections as evinced by Romney and McCain.

The boat is sinking and you want to bring on twenty million uneducated rats on board. Go sell it elsewhere.
Allah already made me cry with that pup rescue video and I have to deal with this jackass now? No.

I’m so over Marco. I really don’t feel like turning the US into a 2nd world country Northern Mexico. And he’s of Cuban descent for heaven’s sake! It’s not like Mexicans like Cubans (or Puerto Ricans for that matter). Not sure where the “hispanic” solidarity is coming from.

Pretend that Rubio had never supported the Gang of Eight bill and was still a conservative in good standing with the base. Where would he rank now compared to Paul and Cruz in the battle for the tea-party vote in 2016?

He didn’t just support it, he was the chief face man and spokes liar for amnesty/rewards for tens of millions of third world invaders. He makes Chamberlain look like Churchill. Nothing but a lying little piss ant.

Pretend that Rubio had never supported the Gang of Eight bill and was still a conservative in good standing with the base. Where would he rank now compared to Paul and Cruz in the battle for the tea-party vote in 2016?

…he was wearing knee pads next to that prick Chuck Schumer!…how the he11 do I “pretend”?

How about we finally just deal him out? Same with Bush. Why destroy moral with any kind of potential for mush to be nominated? Rubio is now against the amnesty bill he passed against the will of us all, against the warnings of us all. Why? Because he has no principles, instead he now wants to do what is popular or trying to grasp on what he flushed away in his own free will, but anyone with a brain can see how much of a turncoat he is, can be and will be, and how much of a disaster Bush will be. Maybe Bush should have Rubio as his running mate to put the nail in the GOP coffin after amnesty is passed by the House Republicans when the primaries are over?

Think Romney had it bad getting less votes than McCain? You haven’t seen anything yet! Keep pushing these losers in 2014 and 2016, keep pushing amnesty, keep following along with the Democrats CR’s & budgets… enjoy not taking the senate back, possibly losing the larger edge in the house and of course having many less votes in 2016 than even Romney had in 2012.

We will not continue voting for somebody we have to “pretend” anything about. Doing that for far too long is why the party and the politicians(like Rubio) lie to us then spit on us whenever the lobbyist tell them to, and the sheeple will still vote for them because karl rove and other idiots tell us we have to, and people do it. They tell us we have to do as we are told by the politicians. It must stop, politicians must learn they are there to serve us or lose.

No More

No Amnesty

No votes or support for any pro amnesty anti American Citizen candidates.

Have you ever read the comments at Hot Air? Do you think anyone can please the True Conservatives?

terryannonline on May 1, 2014 at 9:35 PM

What I want is a guy who gets elected by touting himself as a strong conservative, then later he decides that amnesty is an ok thing, and after getting his sack handed to him by the base he declares “Just kidding, I never meant any of that.”

Heck if we want to talk Senators, why not Mike Lee? He’s not the firebrand that Cruz is, but the establishment GOP hates his guts. And he’s quietly putting together some positive stuff, too. Building a philosophical argument for conservatism. Not libertarianism (I.E. slit your throat because you are high on drugs).

The big “Tea party” senators were Cruz, Lee, Rubio, and Paul. Of those 4, Rubio is a traitor, Paul is a nutcase but not as bad as his dad, and Cruz and Lee are still strong. Cruz gets the pub, but Lee’s no slouch either. If we are going with another Senator, why not Lee?

Governor wise, we have Pence, Walker, Jindal, and maybe Perry. Anyone else? Oh, Christie and Jeb. Yeah, a non starter on those two. Jindal I think isn’t ready. Perry, maybe. Walker has a conservative victory no one else can point to. And who knows about Pence?

He rolled the dice on that and lost — but only with righties, not with the establishment. They were grateful for the effort, of course, and now had reason to see Rubio as something more than just a Cruz-type dogmatist.

I know a lot of us like to say that the GOP Establishment has no problem with losing in order to shut out the righties, but are we sure that losing his first big Presidential-positioning strategic play didn’t also mark him down as a loser with the Establishment? That they’re still cool with nominating one if Jeb and Chris fall through?

He cannot be trusted!No Republican candidate who has ever supported liberal positions on deal breaker issues will ever get my vote.I played their game with McCain and with Romney.I will not play again.I am tired of the duplicity,the compromise of principles,the ineptness,the failure to articulate conservative policy,the foolish pandering, and the condescending attacks on conservatives.The GOP can go to hell.At this point,what difference does it make?America is going to hell in a hand basket either way.Just a little bit slower with the GOP.If an articulate real conservative like Ted Cruz is not the nominee,I’m joining the millions of white voters who defeated Romney in ’08 by staying home.We cannot defeat the socialist progressives with the GOP standing in the way!

On immigration reform Rubio lied to friends, to supporters, and to the media. The fact that he was willing to lie so thoroughly in support of a bill that was written in Schumer’s office disqualifies him as a Republican nominee for me.

I won’t vote for Bush. I won’t vote for Rubio. I’m one Republican voter, but I don’t think I’m alone. It is entirely possible for the national Republican party to self-destruct in 2016.

NOTE to Allahpundit: SCREW 2016!!! If whoever wants to be the 2016 nominee does not spend the rest of 2014 working incredibly hard to get Republicans elected in 2014, they are not worthy of anyone’s support in 2016.

Rubio was NEVER a Tea Party guy, he was Speaker of the Florida House, which is about as “establishment” as you can get. Tea Party supporters flocked to him after the NRSC foolishly endorsed Crist before the primary, it was reaction against Crist and the “Establishment” rather than “for” Rubio, who was more conservative but never “anti-establishment” until out of state money started rolling in.

It’s true he can’t run against Bush, he needs the Sun Belt donors who are traditionally loyal to the Bush family. But that is hardly his biggest problem.

It wasn’t just Tea Party conservatives who were mad about the Gang of Eight nonsense, most of the rank and file oppose amnesty. It only has support among “establishment” officials who have been convinced by the business sector that it will help the GOP with Latino voters, not the base.

▪▫▪▫

But talk of Rubio is frankly the sort of romantic silliness one expects more of Democrats, who are always looking for another JFK (who was an attractive candidate but a lousy President) rather than Republicans, who usually look for meaningful experience. Yet names like Rubio, Paul, and Cruz, young lads with short resumes and nothing that strikes one as extraordinary in them, keep being bandied about.

Just consider our list of available Governors/former Governors who have proven track records of success.

And that’s just the start. Granted, names like Barbour, Snyder, and Scott may not be as attractive on the stump, but they do have more substantive backgrounds than the fresh-faced freshmen in the Senate.

Just consider our list of available Governors/former Governors who have proven track records of success.
Jeb Bush
Mitch Daniels
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
Susan Martinez
Mike Pence
Rick Perry
Mitt Romney
Scott Walker
And that’s just the start. Granted, names like Barbour, Snyder, and Scott may not be as attractive on the stump, but they do have more substantive backgrounds than the fresh-faced freshmen in the Senate.
Adjoran on May 2, 2014 at 1:42 AM

Well once you add Senators and Representatives to the list he can’t even break into my top 5 list of people I might be interested in… and for those ‘feeling the waters’ Rubio doesn’t even get to a second choice status, either.

It will take a lot of people not running to move him up into a top 5 position, and the campaign season for President is still TWO YEARS AWAY.

Now if Rubio wants to cut his ties to the pro-Amnesty wing of the ruling Elite and start treading on toes by starting to propose wholesale elimination of government agencies… then he might start to get my attention. But so far he doesn’t seem to be the sort of man who is willing to say ‘to hell with you, it is time for your precious toys of tyranny to go away’ to his fellow Senators and make a case for much, much smaller government as a whole concept.

He still has time to do that… but that just isn’t in his character from what I’ve seen.

What I want is a guy who gets elected by touting himself as a strong conservative, then later he decides that amnesty is an ok thing, and after getting his sack handed to him by the base he declares “Just kidding, I never meant any of that.”

Marco Rubio’s buddy, liberal NY Democrat Chuck Schumer, was ever so helpful to Marco during his first national push for legislation (amnesty) when he needed help. I think it only fair to repay Schumer’s kindness by voting for Schumer instead of Marco Rubio to even the score so to speak.