The virtual 1969-76 Phillies, Cardinals, and Mets (Part 4: 1971-72)

We’re threeyearsinside this counterfactual. So far our Cardinals, with Joe Hoerner, Nelson Briles, and Richie Allen (among others) not traded away, have achieved a division title in 1971 that the actual franchise didn’t. But perhaps more interesting is that our Phillies, for reasons less obvious, finished 19 games better in ’71 than their real-life counterparts.

We observed here the similarity between this Mets’ trade and their 1969 surrender of Amos Otis in exchange for Joe Foy:

The 1969 deal was executed by [General Manager Johnny] Murphy, and the ’71 trade by Bob Scheffing, but they were similar in concept, and of course disastrously similar in outcome. The Mets were fixated on resolving what they perceived to be a major third base problem, although if they’d just shown some patience with Wayne Garrett he’d probably have been fine. And not only did the Mets fail to comprehend what kind of raw talent they had in both Otis and Ryan, their scouts failed to perform due diligence in assessing what they were getting in Foy (who apparently never met a drug he didn’t like) and Fregosi (whose knees were beyond repair).

By not letting go of Otis in the first place, our Mets have had third base well-covered in 1970 and ’71, so aren’t motivated to perceive Fregosi’s future as brighter than Ryan’s.

At this point Carlton and Wise were nearly exact equals in career innings, at 1,265 to 1,243, but that’s where the equalities ended, as Carlton’s won-lost record was 77-62 while Wise’s was 75-76, Carlton’s ERA was 3.10 while Wise’s was 3.61, and Carlton had 951 strikeouts while Wise had 717.

So, as everyone understood, this deal was entirely a function of Busch’s pique against Carlton regarding salary negotiations. So Busch “won” by saving a few thousand dollars. Boy, that showed ’em.

Our Cards won’t be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Our Phillies won’t be allowed to invest in this upgrade.

As much as we like Le Grande Orange, it’s important to understand that just because he’s been far and away the best player on the expansion Expos doesn’t mean he’s an elite-caliber talent. He’s a wonderfully pure hitter, but he’s never run well or distinguished himself defensively. This is a boatload of talent to exchange for a sweet-hitting corner outfielder, particularly when Singleton, who’s three years younger than Staub, has only to develop a bit further to become a pretty sweet-swinging corner outfielder himself. Non, merci.

The 1971-72 offseason: Deals we will invoke

Oct. 18, 1971: The New York Mets traded first baseman Art Shamsky to the St. Louis Cardinals for infielder Chip Coulter and cash.

Actually this was the core of a trade that included three additional players on each side, though only one of them (pitcher Jim Bibby, going from the Mets to the Cardinals) would have much of a future. Our Mets and Cards will just boil it down to this essence: dumping off the ailing Shamsky for a bargain price.

The White Sox actually traded John (along with Steve Huntz) to the Dodgers for Richie Allen, of course. In our scenario, the Cardinals have Allen, and aren’t giving him up.

So our Phillies will accommodate Chicago’s desire for a right-handed power-hitting first baseman. Granted, Johnson’s no Allen (who is?), but John-for-Allen was quite a bargain. Even with Jim Lefebvre traded last year in our scenario, the Dodgers still have surplus second base talent, and we know they actually parlayed Sizemore into John, so we’ll let them do that here.

Our Phils upgrade the offensive production at second base, while opening up first base for highly-touted rookie Greg Luzinski.

Actually it was the Reds making this trade with Minnesota. Our Cards will eagerly do it instead, as Hall’s strikeout-per-inning numbers are dazzling.

Dec. 10, 1971: The New York Mets traded pitcher Jim McAndrew to the California Angels for catcher Joe Azcue and cash.

We won’t let the Angels get Ryan, but will satisfy their need for a right-handed starting pitcher with the journeyman McAndrew. The veteran Azcue provides organizational catching depth.

Jan. 19, 1972: The New York Mets traded pitcher Fred Beene to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later. (On April 10, 1972, the Yankees sent pitcher Dale Spier to the Mets, completing the deal.)

Jan. 20, 1972: The New York Mets traded outfielder Johnny Callison to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later. (On May 17, 1972, the Yankees sent pitcher Jack Aker to the Mets, completing the deal.)

Actually it was the Orioles and the Cubs, respectively, making these two deals with the Yankees. Our Mets will accept the offers instead.

Feb. 8, 1972: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder Bobby Pfeil to the Milwaukee Brewers for a player to be named later. (On March 25, 1972, the Brewers sent outfielder-infielder Chico Vaughns to the Cardinals, completing the deal.)

And actually it was the Phillies making this one, but our Cards have Pfeil.

March, 1972: In a three-club deal, the St. Louis Cardinals traded outfielder Jorge Roque to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies sent outfielder Larry Hisle to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Dodgers sent first baseman Tom Hutton to the Cardinals.

The actual trade was Hisle from the Phillies to the Dodgers straight up for Hutton. Our Phils don’t see a need for Hutton, but our Cardinals do, so Philadelphia will get the toolsy prospect Roque, and everybody’s happy.

March, 1972: The St. Louis Cardinals sold outfielder-first baseman Vic Davalillo to the Cincinnati Reds.

He’s been a handy guy to have around, but we just can’t squeeze the soon-to-be-36-year-old Davalillo on to the roster this time.

The 1972 season: Actual deals we will make

Oh, why not? (By the way, in Charles Einstein’s marvelous book Willie’s Time, he quotes financially-strapped Giants’ owner Horace Stoneham as admitting, years later, that there actually was no cash in this deal, that was just reported to the press to save face for Mays. Make of that whatever you will.)

The 1972 season: Actual deals we will not make

In addition to having one of the all-time great names, Spinks is an intriguing prospect, a very hard thrower. But a prospect is all he is; at the age of 24 he’s made just 11 major league appearances, because he’s still struggling mightily with his control in triple-A. And Clemons is a grade-B prospect at best.

Meanwhile, Reuss, not yet 23 years old, is already firmly established as a major league starter. He’s still got some development to go, but he’s far ahead of Spinks.

In short, there’s no valid baseball reason for St. Louis to make this trade. It was one of several examples in this period of Cardinals’ owner Gussie Busch forcing a poor trade because of his petulance over a player’s personality. We won’t go there.

May 15, 1972: The St. Louis Cardinals traded pitcher Don Shaw to the Oakland Athletics for infielder Dwain Anderson.

Aug. 30, 1972: The St. Louis Cardinals traded infielder Dal Maxvill to the Oakland Athletics for third baseman Joe Lindsey and a player to be named later. (On Oct. 27, 1972, the Athletics sent catcher Gene Dusan to the Cardinals, completing the deal.)

Our Cardinals don’t have Alou, and don’t want to dump Maxvill.

The 1972 season: Deals we will invoke

In reality it was the Cardinals swapping Hague for Carbo. The Reds are frustrated with Carbo, and understandably so, but he’s three-and-a-half years younger than Hague, and with an obviously far higher ceiling. Our Phillies will happily take on this high-maintenance project.

July 11, 1972: The Philadelphia Phillies sold catcher-outfielder Adrian Garrett to the Oakland Athletics.

He’s getting squeezed off the roster as Bill Sudakis returns from the DL.

1972 season results

Phillies

We’re giving first-sting opportunities to two right-handed power-hitting 21-year-old rookies with impressive minor league resumés: Luzinski at first base, and Mike Anderson in center field. Willie Montañez will move over to right. Sizemore should shore up second base.

Luzinski blossoms nicely, but Anderson encounters some struggles, and Montañez sees his sophomore-year home run production plummet. The left field platoon of Johnny Briggs and Joe Lis is terrific, but third baseman Don Money again can’t get his batting average above the .220s. All in all the offense is a mixed bag: not exactly bad, but certainly not good.

And our pitching isn’t as strong as it was in 1971. Rick Wise is still solid at the top, and Dave Giusti turns in another fine year as the ace reliever. But the back end of the starting rotation is problematic, as Steve Renko flops, and youngsters Ken Reynolds, Wayne Twitchell, and Billy Champion all have a hard time.

So it’s a one-step-forward, two-steps-back kind of a year. We take solace in the fact that we’re still a young team, but the lesson about how difficult it is to become a contender is plain and harsh.

Cardinals

Coming off a great 1971, we’ve made few changes. We’re welcoming Achilles-healed Bobby Tolan back to center field, and will shift Jose Cruz to right, squeezing Leron Lee into a utility role. Rookie Ed Crosby will get a middle infield opportunity, and Hall replaces Granger in the bullpen.

There are a couple of disappointments. Cruz catches a nasty case of Sophomore Jinx. Joe Torre’s production sharply cools off from his sizzling ’71 pace.

But the positive news overwhelms any problems. Dick Allen (as he has now requested to be called) lays out a career year with the bat. Steve Carlton bursts into superstardom with a monster performance that compares with Bob Gibson’s epic 1968 for sheer dominance. The now-36-year-old Gibson is still mighty good, and he and Carlton head up the best pitching staff in baseball.

Tolan picks up where he left off before his injury. Thirty-three-year-old Lou Brock relentlessly continues to get on base, steal bags, and score runs. Twenty-two-year-old Ted Simmons matures into a genuine star.

With the game’s best hitter and the game’s best pitcher leading a terrific supporting cast, the 1972 Cardinals steamroll the competition, and are hailed as one of the greatest teams of the era.

Mets

Despite frustrating third-place finishes in both 1970 and ’71, we haven’t undertaken significant alterations to the roster. We’re confident that continued improvement by many of our young players will make us a serious contender.

We think it’s time to move Amos Otis from third base to take over as the full-time center fielder, and slide Tommie Agee over to right. At third, young Wayne Garrett will platoon with veteran Tony Taylor. When Mays arrives, he’ll serve primarily as a platoon/spot starter at first base, supporting young Mike Jorgensen.

We’ll give rookie left-hander Jon Matlack an opportunity as a starter, and move veteran southpaw Woodie Fryman to the bullpen.

We’re greeted with a couple of wonderful developments on the pitching front. Matlack is superb, settling in as a star right away. And Nolan Ryan rewards our patience by finally blossoming as a star in his fifth big league season. Anchored by Tom Seaver in the rotation and Tug McGraw in the bullpen, our staff is again outstanding.

But our hitting is another story. Otis is fine, and Mays contributes wonderfully in his limited role. But we’re nagged by injuries (to Agee, to Cleon Jones, to Jerry Grote, and to Bud Harrelson), and unable to shake a general offensive malaise.

We’re bailed out by exceptionally good Pythagorean fortune, coming in at 11 wins above our projection. But even at 93-63 (in the strike-shortened season), we’re still far behind St. Louis, and we have to acknowledge that the 93 wins overstates how good we are. The Miracle of 1969 is getting ever-more lonely and distant in the rear-view mirror.

Next time

Can our Phils get back on track? And can our Mets (or anyone else) get anywhere close to these runaway Cardinals?

Comments

Ah, 1973 and the “does anyone want to win this division, or at least a few games” NL East. With the revised teams I sense it will take more than 82 wins this time, especially since the Mets should be significantly better than they really were. This is going to be good.

Yes, 82 wins won’t cut it this time. The virtual Mets need to do something abouth thier anemic infield. As a side benefit of not making the Singleton or Ryan trades, the Mets have several young players on the bench who could start for other teams. Rumor has it that an American League team is shopping thier power hitting thirdbaseman for prospects.

If you remove Carlton for Wise, and ignore the utter stupidity of the St Louis organization during the early 1970s, which began with trading players like Curt Flood to the Phillies for salary reasons, and ended with the trades of Carlton to the Phillies for salary reasons and Simmons to the Brewers for salary reasons, then you are ignoring the utter reality that Busch was unable or unwilling to pay his players, a fact highlighted in the recent documentary on Curt Flood.

It is sheer phantasm to think that this owner could have properly run the Cards or hung onto his talent, or kept players like Allen, Carlton and Torre together and actually paid them their salary demands. Busch always traded such players because he had the view that players were fungible and were not unique. He really thought Rick Wise was just as good as Steve Carlton, and that was the limit of his intellect.

This is a useless counterfactual exercise.

Art Kyriazis, Philly

PS The Phillies PUMMELED the Cards throughout the 1970s. The Cards stunk in those years, and Bill James is right in criticizing how St. Louis threw away all that talent due to incompetence and ineptitude, but mostly due to cheapness.

art kyriazis:
Well, Wise was as good as Carlton in 1973
Wise had a fantastic quote for a friend at one of those “dream week” get-togethers: “If they like you, they’ll give you every chance to succeed. If they don’t like you, they’ll give you one chance to fail.”
Re Allen in 1972, he had an OPS+ of 198 with the CWS. At Busch Stadium, per baseball-reference, this would translate to .319/.432/.625 with 39 HR’s and 122 RBI
Where have you gone Heity Cruz?

“It is sheer phantasm to think that this owner could have properly run the Cards or hung onto his talent, or kept players like Allen, Carlton and Torre together and actually paid them their salary demands. Busch always traded such players because he had the view that players were fungible and were not unique. He really thought Rick Wise was just as good as Steve Carlton, and that was the limit of his intellect.

This is a useless counterfactual exercise.”

I imagine that is the entire point of this exercise, and all of the similar analyses that the author has done previously. A whimsical look at what if the inept owner or GM of the day wasn’t so inept.

Steve:
In lieu of “the virtual”, why don’t you retitle the articles, “all the right moves”? Just sayin’…..
Great series. I can’t recall if you’ve done anything regarding late ‘70’s / early ‘80’s, but the Phillies traded a ton of youth (Sandberg, Franco, Moreland,Lonnie Smith, Dernier) and talent (Willie Hernandez)with little return. There’s an awful lotta WAR in dem dere prospects. The Phillies really “Mined” the Dominican quite quite well in the late 70’s… Looking forward to that series

“Re Allen in 1972, he had an OPS+ of 198 with the CWS. At Busch Stadium, per baseball-reference, this would translate to .319/.432/.625 with 39 HR’s and 122 RBI”

Indeed, but that translator doesn’t take league strength into account. Given that the NL was almost certainly housing a higher quality of play than the AL in this period, in these exercises I back off the stats a bit of players being portrayed in the NL instead of the AL, and vice-versa.

I remember a Baseball Research Journal article about 20 years ago, ‘‘If God Owned the Angels.’‘

Baseball fans have speculated about ‘What Ifs’ for over a century.

As John A said, the whole point of articles like these are to show what could have been with reasonable and competent management. Perhaps Art is just worried the Phillies aren’t going to be playoff bound come the mid-to-late 70s.

So the Dodgers get T.J. after all. And Sizemore moves to eventually make way for Lopes. And the Dodgers will trade Claude Osteen for Jimmy Wynn.

The only downside is we won’t have

Of course, I’m a bit concerned about the impending Rick Wise trade that will either get revoked (since he’s no longer with the Cards) or altered.

With youngsters Jim Rice, Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans all being primed for stardom, the Red Sox wouldn’t need Reggie Smith’s bat in the coming years. They did, however, need Rick Wise’s arm. Will the Phillies made a deal with Boston, shipping Smith and Bernie Carbo to Fenway?

Nice to see the Singleton deal to Montreal was nixed. The butterfly effect for that one hopefully means the switch-hitting slugger won’t be hitting any three-run homers for Earl Weaver in the 70s. Might make things a little easier for Boston in the AL East.

As expected, Nolan Ryan remains a Met and likely gives Yogi Berra a rotation of Ryan, Seaver, Koosman & Matlack into the early 1980s. And with Otis and Singleton patrolling the outfield instead of the likes of Del Unser and Mike Vail, it looks like Joe Torre’s managerial debut in 1977 will be delayed.

Steve, re: Ernie Broglio. That discussion got me digging around and found this:

Broglio said he thinks the Cardinals pulled one over on the Cubs, that St. Louis knew his arm injury was more serious than even he was aware. (Incidentally, I attended Broglio’s baseball camp in the late 1970s.)

The only downside is we won’t have those stories about Dick Allen belatedly running out a ground ball after an infielder booted it, getting thrown out at first on a close play, slamming his helmet to the ground in disgust – and getting back to the Dodgers dugout only to have manager Walt Alston order him to go back out there and retrieve the helmet.

Yes, Ernie Broglio’s a classy guy. It’s a shame that he is best remembered only for being part of the Brock trade. If it wasn’t for his arm problems things might have been different.

I found a Milwaukee Sentinel article from May 17, 1962 that said the Cardinals, due to an injury to outfielder Minnie Minoso, had offered Broglio and outfielder Charlie James to the Cubs for George Altman (who had hit .303 with 27 homeruns and 96 RBIs in 1961).

The article goes on to say that Broglio ‘‘was hampered by a sore arm a portion of the [1961] season.’‘

And a Gettysburg Times piece from April 17, 1962 quotes manager Johnny Keane as saying, ‘‘We’ve been going slow with him because of his bad arm last year.’‘

But the Cubs turned down that offer.

In looking up his minor league stats, it’s no wonder Broglio developed a sore arm.

He appeared in 11 games (47 IP) in the PCL in 1953 – as a 17-year old.

He threw 170 innings in 25 starts and 39 games the next year in Class C ball. Then 255 innings after that as a 19-year old (20-10 record) before struggling a bit in Class A ball the following year (6-12, 153 IP).

As a 21-year old, he went 17-6 for Dallas (AA ball) in 222 IP in 1957. At the AAA level, in 1958 he threw 212 innings (17-4).

So in five years from age 18 to 22, Broglio had already pitched over 1,000 innings in the minors.

As a 23-year old rookie for the Cardinals in 1959, he started 25 of 35 games (181 innings).

In 1960, the year Broglio went 21-9 (leading the NL in wins), he started only 24 games. But St. Louis used him in 52 games (a total of 226 IP).

At the start of that season, manager Solly Hemus used Broglio mostly as a reliever; he appeared in 30 games by July 1st. Broglio then started 19 games on the mound from that point on.

On August 11th, Broglio beat Bob Friend of the Pirates, each pitcher getting complete game decision in a game that went 12 innings at Forbes Field, the Cardinals closing to just four back behind first-place Pittsburgh. By September 7th, Broglio had thrown another 47 2/3 innings in six additional starts (4 of them on 3 days rest). He went 4-2 in that stretch, beating Friend again and besting Sandy Koufax with a 2-0 shutout win.

Broglio had arm problems in 1961, but came back strong in 1962, going 12-9 in 30 starts and 222 innings. In 1963, he was 18-8, pitching 250 innings.

By the end of 1963, at the age of 27, he had pitched over 1,050 innings for St. Louis.

In 1964, Broglio struggled. He went 3-3 in his first nine starts before throwing a complete game win over the Reds on May 30th. Then he didn’t pitch again until June 12th, when he went 6 2/3 in a loss at Dodger Stadium to Sandy Koufax.

Three days later, Broglio was traded by St. Louis to the Cubs as part of the deal for Lou Brock.

It’s curious that Broglio was in the rotation but then missed a start.

So essentially the Cubs turned down a deal in 1962 that would have cost them only George Altman (who had a career-year as a 28-year old, hitting more homeruns than in his two previous big league seasons combined) for a starting pitcher with known arm trouble at the time, but then two years later traded a promising and future Hall of Fame outfield two years for that same pitcher!

Cubs head coach Bob Kennedy was quoted as saying Chicago badly needed pitching help because of an upcoming string of double-headers. (They apparently really believed they could have competed for the pennant in 1964, being 5 games out at the time of the deal.)

This makes it even harder to see how Cubs would make that deal unless they really believed (or were led to believe) that Broglio’s arm was sound.

It’s interesting that in his memoirs, Cardinals GM Bing Devine claims he never knew Broglio had ‘‘a bad arm.’’ Thought his field manager, the Gettysburg Times and Milwaukee Sentinel all knew it.

Even more incredible is that the Cubs may had heard the rumors about Broglio’s arm troubles.

Cubs Head Coach at the time, Bob Kennedy, now claims that he and his assistants were against the deal:

‘‘We didn`t want Broglio. Lew Burdette (acquired two weeks earlier from the Cardinals) was on our club then and told us Broglio had been having arm problems; he’d been getting shots.’‘

But what’s really comical is that on the day of the trade, the Cubs recalled outfielder Billy Ott from Salt Lake City (AAA ball).

Devine claimed the Cubs were disappointed in Brock’s performance both at the plate and in the field and that’s why they were willing to move him.

Cubs’ vice president John Holland is quoted in the St. Petersburg Times on June 16, 1964 as saying: ‘‘We think Ott is ready to step into a regular job in the majors and that was one of the big reasons we felt we could trade Brock.’‘

After a decent season with San Antonio (AA ball), Ott in full-time duty at Salt Lake City in 1963 had hit only .234 with 5 homeruns and was caught stealing in 7 of 13 attempts.

I couldn’t find Ott’s 1964 PCL stats at the time of the trade, but after getting only 4 hits in 22 at bats with the Cubs he was sent back down to the minors in late July. As Ott’s full-season AAA stats for that year include a .249 average with 7 homeruns it’s highly doubtful he was tearing up the PCL before the trade was made, making Holland’s statement that Ott was ‘‘ready’’ for a “regular job” on a club that thought they could compete for the pennant dubious at best.

The Brock-Broglio trade is often cited by baseball historians as being one of the most lopsided in major league history.

But perhaps it’s also time to look at the trade as not so much as the Cubs moving a would-be Hall of Famer for a proven starting pitcher who ‘‘developed’’ a sore arm later, but because…

(a) Cubs management was confident they could move Lou Brock and replace him with a light-hitting minor league outfielder they thought was “ready” for a “regular job” in the big leagues.

AND

(b) the Cardinals may have known all along that Broglio had major arm trouble and concealed it from the Cubs.