Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.

Race

Date

Team Rating

Molly Sughroue

Kaytlyn Larson

Gintare Zenkeviciute

Cheyenne Walden

Michelle Magnani

Kaylee Dodd

Sinclaire Johnson

Ariane Ballner

Taylor Somers

Jenny Celis

Emily Helms

OSU Cowboy Jamboree (Orange)

09/30

897

20:35

20:45

20:59

20:28

22:00

20:49

20:54

21:03

21:41

21:46

Penn State National Open

10/13

848

20:05

20:42

20:55

20:50

20:42

21:04

20:54

21:14

21:09

21:46

Big 12 Championship

10/28

740

20:10

20:29

20:34

20:24

21:22

20:59

20:46

21:21

21:11

21:42

Midwest Region Championships

11/10

647

20:16

20:09

20:27

20:28

20:48

20:25

20:58

NCAA Tournament Simulation

Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.

Team Results

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Ave Score

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

NCAA Championship

12.9%

27.2

653

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.2

Region Championship

100%

3.7

155

2.1

10.0

46.3

19.8

10.8

5.6

2.7

1.5

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.1

Individual Results

NCAA Championship

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Molly Sughroue

15.6%

111.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

Kaytlyn Larson

13.0%

169.4

Gintare Zenkeviciute

12.9%

179.5

Cheyenne Walden

13.0%

186.1

Michelle Magnani

12.9%

200.4

Kaylee Dodd

12.9%

206.5

Sinclaire Johnson

12.9%

213.5

Regional

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Molly Sughroue

13.7

0.1

0.3

0.8

0.9

2.4

2.4

3.3

5.1

6.9

7.2

8.3

7.4

7.3

6.8

4.8

5.4

4.5

3.8

4.1

2.8

2.5

2.0

1.3

1.5

Kaytlyn Larson

27.9

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.8

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.7

2.4

2.6

2.1

3.8

3.0

3.3

3.2

4.0

3.4

3.3

3.1

Gintare Zenkeviciute

32.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.9

1.6

1.0

2.0

2.2

2.1

3.1

3.0

2.2

2.6

2.4

3.0

2.9

Cheyenne Walden

34.7

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.7

1.1

1.0

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.8

2.3

2.6

2.9

2.8

2.7

Michelle Magnani

44.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

1.2

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.8

1.5

Kaylee Dodd

48.6

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.2

0.6

0.8

Sinclaire Johnson

53.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.6

NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total

Region Finish

Chance of Finishing

Chance of Advancing

Auto

At Large Selection

No Adv

Auto

At Large

Region Finish

1

2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1

2.1%

100.0%

2.1

2.1

1

2

10.0%

100.0%

10.0

10.0

2

3

46.3%

1.7%

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

45.5

0.8

3

4

19.8%

0.3%

0.1

19.8

0.1

4

5

10.8%

10.8

5

6

5.6%

5.6

6

7

2.7%

2.7

7

8

1.5%

1.5

8

9

0.8%

0.8

9

10

0.4%

0.4

10

11

0.1%

0.1

11

12

0.1%

0.1

12

13

13

14

14

15

15

16

16

17

17

18

18

19

19

20

20

21

21

22

22

23

23

24

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

29

29

30

30

31

31

32

32

33

33

34

34

35

35

36

36

37

37

Total

100%

12.9%

2.1

10.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

87.1

12.1

0.9

Points

At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.