Consensual Experts’ Opinion in Forecasting

Abdul Hadi Nawawi

Abstract

In forecasting rental levels, different experts may have different opinions. Subjective expert forecasts would be useful but the platform for discussions may not be readily available let alone mechanism for reconciling the differences of opinions. The viability of aggregating and pooling anonymous opinions of experts in making forecasts of rental levels of purpose-built office space in Kuala Lumpur was investigated by empirical work. The Delphi technique was utilized to study the extent of movement of opinions towards consensus, and validation of answers by experts. The experts included in the Delphi process were private valuers/consultants, Government valuers and economic planning unit officers. The actual rental level was compared with experts’ pooled opinion through the technique. The technique adopted in this research had provided an instrument for experts to arrive at a consensual opinion on future rental level of office space in Kuala Lumpur.

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