Discussion of Round #3

Autumn is my favorite season. It has fires of gold and red everywhere. Much better than being fired in WTB.

Fire, another tough subject. I've been fortunate that I've not had to experience a house fire or a forest fire that involved me personally, but I have seen news reports of wildfires that have destroyed vast areas of land and many homes and have taken lives as well.

Hmm, as I looked at things, maybe biased from last game where Witty was a wolf, was beginning to feel possible that Witty was a wolf (apologetic stance for wolf eating, low profile, slightly non-committal play style...) So much for that :/

Okay, I am afraid my thoughts are not that much clearer than last round. I find it funny that Mochs has RFM'd herself, not that this is super-uncommon, but :p

At any rate, going out for the day, so won't be around too much till later tonight. Going to be doing Improv Everywhere's MP3 Experiment 10 (for more information on these amazing events click here.) I am so beyond psyched... And waiting for the psychs xD

Feels too dangerous now to place a vote seeing as it would be all too easy to end the round, plus, I am not fully sure where that vote should go, so, will hold back for now. May be online a bit later during my train ride, depends on my connection.

Sorry the psychs weren't up earlier, I had to jump right into house demo since today is our last day and my husband has to leave at noon. They are up now. I know this type of avoidance behavior is very wolfish, I keep waiting for Limerick to log his vote for me. :/"Wir müssen wissen, und wir werden wissen." -David Hilbert

I will be back a little later to defend myself, but I don't have much time right now. Just letting ya'll know that I'm not logging on and not posting. That would look ridiculously suspicious, and obviously I don't have the position to add that to the list of evidence...

EDIT: Okay, I'm back online.

I was trying to figure out why Witty was eaten, so I looked at his posts last round. IF he was the seer, it is likely that he divined nicats and therefore started the vote on him. Because nicats was ultimately shot, Witty would've been the best choice for eating, in my opinion.

Will we get the identities in this game?

Moving on, I'm beginning to believe that the blue wolf is from America as well. However, I have no idea why. The flag thing from last round helps with this assumption, but, obviously, there is more than one country with stars on its' flag.

I don't know whom to vote for at this point and do not know if the seer is still with us, so I will hold my vote for now.

Also, just because I was the only person who had not logged on today, it does not mean that I am definitely a wolf. There could very well be a wolf who is holding their vote purposely and letting their partner decide whom to eat. Maybe they're doing it to frame me, maybe they're letting their partner decide because their partner is more experienced. I don't know.

But, that's all for now.

---This message was edited on 2013-07-14 16:08:33---"Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened."

Alrighty, I see orange wolf is trying to frame me. I am pretty certain I'd be the only one to call Autumn, Autumn. You all would call it Fall. I would ask that you look at my last Boss game (kmrutledge moderated it). I was boss and took a great deal of care to use North American terminology and spelling. Eg, honors, jewelry, night stand. I would NOT write Autumn here!

I have posted a vote for Limerick. I strongly feel that one of the wolves is either tuku or Limerick. Having some inside information from the TB game I moderated, Limerick purposefully waited very late before posting his wolf votes. I'm not sure how many others do this but tied in with tukus comment re: the matrix, I think this pushes me more to Limerick.

Edit: analysing last round I think I have worked out who our seer is. Fingers crossed.
I was trying to analyse why Witty was eaten. Another easy kill with nothing to point evidence for or against. Witty voted nicats, nicats voted Witty. Witty was working too much to be able to give her analysis. If the wolves felt safe then perhaps didnt want Witty to stir the pot. Nicats, tuku and I were all in trouble. If a wolf was in trouble I'd have expected some assistance by the other one. (Assuming 2 are left). First round was the same scenario, tuku and froggy were in trouble. Again no real assistance by a wolf. So my top suspects right now are Limerick, oh what big eyes you have, and softball, oh what big ears you have. Lol. My other suspect is TheLegend. I think he would be more active in steering votes if a. He was a wolf and b. he or the other wolf were in trouble. I would be disgusted with myself of Limerick and tuku were both wolves. Bobbi is least likely in my opinion only. I'm not getting any wolffish vibes... Actually that's enough cause to now go and evaluate her contributions this game in case I've missed something.

The only thing I came up with on Bobbi was at the end of round 1 and being ok to let the computer decide froggy / Limerick/tuku fate. Logically all other decisions seem sound.

I've picked up one more thing. Limerick attempting to uncover the Orange and Blue wolves. Doesn't come to any real conclusion for 2 rounds?? Happy to leave things open or just confused. ( I know what you'll say Lim so don't even say it!!) in the analysis for Orange wolf he failed to mention Legend. Leads me to think Lim is the Orange wolf and he didnt want to bring attention to TheLegend in his analysis. Problem I am facing is that I do suspect softball quite a bit and I don't know if I'm reading too much into it. Either way, my vote is locked on Limerick.

May I ask why you suspect me, jervis? Is it because I was always absent during the night rounds and they happened to time out, or an entirely different reason?

As for your Limerick accusations, I agree that he is trying to analyze the wolves and not coming up with much, but isn't that what most people are doing? On the other hand, I wouldn't know much about this, but if what you say is true about Limerick being late on his mealtime choices in the TB game you had, then it seems kind of odd that he'd do it again in a game filled with mostly the same people.

I am probably over-thinking this, but what if you are the Orange wolf. What if you are saying that the orange wolf is trying to frame you, when, in fact, you are the orange wolf saying that the orange wolf is trying to frame you.

This game is making my brain hurt. "Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened."

Sorry it took me so long to get back. I went kayaking and other fun stuff with my family today.

I know this has gotten me in trouble before, but I honestly think that Limerick is the orange wolf. I don't really know about the blue wolf, but Jarvis' idea about softball seems logical to me too. I am currently inclined to agree with him, even though he's the one that has been leading my manhunt.

The first round was just too close to Limer and he would also change up the style to stir up confusion and debate. I also wouldn't put it past him to use the word "autumn" or make the jump from fire to autumn.

As for your Limerick accusations, I agree that he is trying to analyze the wolves and not coming up with much, but isn't that what most people are doing?...

I am probably over-thinking this, but what if you are the Orange wolf...
This game is making my brain hurt.

I'll try and keep this post short and more to the point.
Yes that's why I suspect you mostly. Also SPV voting and not changing rings alarms for me too. But it's also obvious that you didnt get back online to change it so I need to consider that. You have been online for some of the nights I think, early on. So still could vote. I think it's more likely Lim is making night time out.
As for Limerick. His voting is not consistent with his analysis. Only odd if everyone knew about it but they weren't aware of it happening and yes, it will be my word against his.
I'm glad you are thinking things through! My brain always hurts playing these games!! I respect that you need to make your decision on what you think is happening. That's what is great about these games. Bluff and double-bluff. I can only tell you that I am not a wolf and if you do decide to vote for me and I get shot, then that's just my bad luck. We can only hope that froggy or nicats was a wolf so you have another chance of shooting the other wolf next round.

I'm reading in the first 3 rounds carefully and I discovered something interesting:
The orange wolf wrote the pronoun "I" uncapitalized in the first round, and the only post who has uncapitalized "i" in it belongs to jervis in the 1st round...
EDIT : I found another one in the 2nd round.

I'm reading in the first 3 rounds carefully and I discovered something interesting:
The orange wolf wrote the pronoun "I" uncapitalized in the first round, and the only post who has uncapitalized "i" in it belongs to jervis in the 1st round...
EDIT : I found another one in the 2nd round.

The orange wolf is purposefully changing their style. I am using my phone at moment so I've got some inconsistencies with capitalisation and apostrophes.

Hmm, this puts me in a sticky situation, I am really not convinced as of yet that either softball or jervis are wolves and am nervous even about saving myself to kill one of them... But, I am also not sure who I do think to be guilty, though, I guess that just leaves me with bradon, tuku, and TheLegend... Well, I now know what I am going to be doing for the next hour... Hopefully some of you are around to make the work mean something.... Let's see what I find.

I'm reading in the first 3 rounds carefully and I discovered something interesting:
The orange wolf wrote the pronoun "I" uncapitalized in the first round, and the only post who has uncapitalized "i" in it belongs to jervis in the 1st round...
EDIT : I found another one in the 2nd round.

That catch could very well be key, Legend. I've been in games where such a small little thing like that won or lost the game. I'm still convinced Softy is a wolf, so for now will leave my vote, because at this point I don't think we should be ending the round with a tie. Hopefully there will be more input before the end of the round.Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. J. Paul Getty

Okay due to the time remaining in this round and the fact that any little thing may be enough to help someone find something, I will be doing this in a sequence of posts. This is the first.

Okay, let us first figure out what we absolutely know...

RGW4 and WittyKitty were HUMAN.
We have 2 wolves (though one may be dead).

Little else at this point is a given, except that tukus likes Hook... Maybe I can rule her out by the fact that Hook hasn't been tied into every single psych answer for either wolf, in fact none of them...

Other than that... the next thing we know is the voting list...

Round 1

bradon182001 voted for jervisfroggygg voted for bradon182001jervis voted for tukuwakatikiLimerick voted for froggyggnicats voted for xxsoftballxx13xRGW4 voted for froggyggTheLegend voted for nicatstukuwakatiki voted for LimerickWittyKitty voted for tukuwakatikixxsoftballxx13x voted for WittyKitty

Round 2

bradon182001 voted for jervisjervis voted for tukuwakatikiLimerick voted for nicatsnicats voted for WittyKittyTheLegend voted for jervistukuwakatiki voted for bradon182001WittyKitty voted for nicatsxxsoftballxx13x voted for tukuwakatiki

Round 3

bradon182001 voted for xxsoftballxx13xjervis voted for LimerickTheLegend voted for jervistukuwakatiki voted for Limerick

Combining the two of these, we know that these votes are untainted...

RGW4 voted for froggygg (Both are dead)WittyKitty voted for tukuwakatiki (Tukus is alive)WittyKitty voted for nicats (Nicats ended up shot that round)

Ok here's the deal with 30 minutes remaining. I will change my vote to softball if Limerick votes for her also. Oh. No I don't think I can ahhhh!! No sorry mate. I just can't get past the matrix thing. Legend, you're not helping me at all either. You've increased my suspicion on you by 200%

Edit: sorry for double posting. I am in turmoil. The one thing that stands out to me is that the 2 wolves have not voted together this round. So, I have to think that maybe we really have shot a wolf. I don't know. I am concerned that if we haven't shot a wolf we are very likely to lose. With tuku and I voting together, it should have forced the 2 wolves to try and tie it up if tuku and I have aimed at a wolf. If we've pointed at the wrong person then the wolves won't be scared and don't need to tie it up. This is torture!!! *looks to mocha, tears in his eyes - please please help me!*

Nothing yet, more coming, right now piecing things together. Right now the only thing I have said so far is that I am not convinced with either current option... working on my mind to see if I can find more =p

Okay, here, I will focus on voting patterns, I will include my own for anyone else reading along:

bradon: jervis, jervis, xxsoftballxx

jervis: tukuwakatiki, tukuwakatiki, Limerick

Limerick: froggygg, nicats, None yet

TheLegend: nicats, jervis, jervis

tuku: Limerick, bradon, Limerick

softball: Witty, tuku, None yet

From here we go to posts...

bradon: Round 1 - Thanks to Witty, held off SPV for psychs; Comment on the psychs, thinks Orange is Jervis due to science, suggests tuku for blue based on travel interests but not solid; Doesn't want ato break a tie, stays with jervis; Round 2 - Doesn't think timing out means anything due to spread of night between two days, protecting softball, votes jervis due to Perseids in Orange, suggests Blue is American ruling out only jervis and possibly TheLegend; Indicates votes based on prompts in response to accusation; Round 3 - Comments on night timing out today, now goes with softball again due to her being inactive again, waits for prompts; comes back and logs her forgotten vote; Comments on Legend's writing analysis, leaving vote on softball, now no longer willing to end in a tie.

jervis: Round 1 - Indicates blue wolf is almost exactly what he wrote, likes beach but not so much ocean, pushes back on bradon's accusation based on word choices, suggests blue wolf may be similar to him, using his phone, split between a few people, none named; Changes to me, asks RG not to shoot him, votes me based on believing I am the Orange wolf, suggests that tukus may have framed me; Indicates that the is not really making a large majority, one vote is an SPV; indicates will change vote to nicats if she doesn't come active; switches to tuku based on possible frame; Round 2 - Indicates possible vote for softball due to inactivity; Goes over to his science side, again references how the blue wolf is kind of matching him based on stars, points out RGW being eaten possibly due to his suspicion on me, thinks this is part of a tukus frame so switches back to tukus; Round 3 - Indicates Orange is a frame on him due to use of autumn, believes either me or tukus is a wolf, indicates voting wolf votes late by me in last game, suspects me, softball, and the Legned as top suspect, does not suspect bradon; Notes bradon letting computer decide, chastises me for not coming to a conclusion and not mentioning TheLegend for Orange, again mentions a suspicion of softball; Suspicious of softball based on spv, indicates my voting not consistent with analysis, likes bluff and double bluffs, hopes one of those shot was a wolf; brings up style changes, indicates he is on his phone; analyses capitalization, asks me what I am up to

Gah, I really don't think I am going to end up having time for this... So, I have to move forward without analysing quite to the level I want...

ETA: jervis O___o, not sure I am comfortable with the idea of a deal vote...

TheLegend - Round 1 - Human for first ever, SPV; didn't expect quote used against him; sees majority, focusing on psych interp and defense; Not comfortable with majority on me, wants people to answer personality questions to analyse the psychs; torn between me and froggy, looking for someone to convince him; thinks changing to someone who is inactive is interesting; posts voting list; Round 2 - Suspects bradon due to voting pattern, previous experience, adds Jervis without explanation; Round 3 - Wants to know if we got a wolf; Comment on capitalization match with psych; thinks mocha is wolfish; indicates icon inspired by tukus

tuku - Round 1 - Checking in, won't be around; vote for me due to Matrix quote; apologises to me, comments on similartity of me to Orange; Indicates she just know we talked about Matrix, not whether I like it; again writing like mine on Orange; Round 2 - Not trying to convince that I am a wolf; indicates Witty, Jervis, and herself could frame me; believes Jervis wouldn't; hasn't played with Witty as a wolf (actually remembers she did, in the TB); commenting on Orange wolf being changed, many reasons; doesn't think Witty is tricksy; Round 3 - Out kayaking; Came back, believes I am wolf from style again; believes I could use autumn to stir things up; Uh oh, Hook is here

Softball is next, but I just don't have time... most of the game she has been going indicating her confusion with the game, nothing has really stood out for me, but, again, just no time to discuss it at this point. Honestly jervis... your last post bugs me the most, you either trust me or you don't, I don't like the idea at this point of a deal without more to back it up, I am out of time really... my vote has to go to you, I am really not fully convinced, but, I can leave it on you and protect myself slightly... Vote for jervis