Theaters Face Fall Doldrums After A Disappointing Summer: Analyst

Stock prices for exhibition chains likely will be “relatively range-bound” for the next two months as theaters begin September — the slowest month of the year for box office sales — with a lot of ground to make up, Barclays Equity Research’s Anthony DiClemente says this morning. The summer ended with domestic sales of $4.28B, down 2.8% vs the period last year. Attendance fell 4.3% to 533M, which was slightly offset by a 1.5% rise in ticket prices. As a result, sales in Q3 will fall short of DiClemente’s $2.86B forecast — already down 1.3% from last year — unless September is 20% higher than 2011. That “could be quite difficult,” the analyst says. For one thing, last September was unusually strong, +11% vs the month in 2010. And the releases teed up for the next few weeks don’t look like they’ll generate much excitement: DiClemente said that the top performers likely will be Disney/Pixar’s 3D re-release of Finding Nemo, Sony’s Resident Evil: Retribution and TriStar’s Looper. Indeed, the analyst says that box offices should be relatively quiet until November when MGM releases the James Bond film Skyfall and Lionsgate has The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part Two). Separately, Lazard Capital Markets’ Barton Crockett projects that Q3 domestic box office sales will end up -4,6% to $2.76B.

11 Comments

Looper deserves to do well. But isn’t it about time the bubble burst for Resident Evil? I saw the previous one, it was almost unwatchably bad.

Terrence • on Sep 4, 2012 7:34 am

No one should be surprised by this. There’s very little worth watching at the movies and certainly not at these prices. There’s live theatre in LA that I’d rather watch — and usually for far less.

777 • on Sep 4, 2012 7:36 am

All the news about being shot at the movies theater scared people off, and then the bomb threat hoax on top of it…..give it some time and it will blow over and people will go back once they hear they’re safe going to the movies again…..

HW • on Sep 4, 2012 7:57 am

What? Someone must have miscalculated.

With fresh and exciting product like BATTLESHIP and TOTAL RECALL remakes audiences just can’t get enough! Keep the remakes and board games coming Hollywood!!!!

Just sayin • on Sep 4, 2012 8:04 am

The new studio battle cry seems to be, “our brain-dead, shitty remake/sequel/board game movie might bomb domestically, but we’ll make it up in foreign.” Maybe it’s time for the domestic chains to fight back.

rocketeuropa • on Sep 4, 2012 9:21 am

Attendance was DOWN- on a summer that included Avengers, Dark Knight Rises and Spider-Man??

FTCS • on Sep 4, 2012 10:04 am

And, what percentage of the total gross is the inflated 3D experience? I am guessing if these numbers were significant the real loss of audience/income is even worse.

The movie industry, like sports, believes there is no top to raising prices because the audience has no choice. Big mistake…as audiences are clearly stating the cost versus reward for going to the movies is no longer worthwhile. They can wait for Netflix, cable or whatever…just like in sports…the cost is exceeding the value… so customers are seeking alternatives and not going to theaters.

Finally, if there were better films, these numbers would be better…but, this fact is only a distraction from the bottom line…movies in theaters, for the most part, are not worth the costs.

It's time for a change • on Sep 4, 2012 10:07 am

It’s time for indy movies to come back and the only way it will happen is if the studios’ oppressive regime ends.

David K • on Sep 4, 2012 11:56 am

It wasn’t a disappointing summer for THE DARK KNIGHT RISES or THE AVENGERS. These two were so large that they sucked the oxygen out of the market for just about everything else. Not that there were too many other memorable summer “blockbusters” out there.

And with crap like Hansel & Gretel on the horizon (in 3D no less), the studios have no one to blame but themselves. Theater owners need to protest because of the craptastic content the studios are demanding they sell.

kobiashi • on Sep 4, 2012 2:14 pm

It couldn’t have anything to do with the lineup of awesome quality movies that are coming out. Hah. A craptastic lineup of rip-offs, remakes, sequels, and lame duck cinematic disasters is reaping what it deserves. People will only pay for chit for so long. For the last few weeks most of the new releases look flaccidly. Keep investing in flops and relying on those tentpoles.