Using Data in Context

There are multiple ways of looking at the economy of an area. Population
data; employment data by industry, residence, or occupation; wage data; and
gross production data are important elements of an economy. It is best to
consider these data together when trying to predict or influence economic
activity.

Employment data are the primary focus of IN Context, as they provide
a forum for disseminating three major data sets collected by the Indiana Department
of Workforce Development for several federal programs. These data sets include:

Current Employment Survey (CES): CES is a monthly survey of all
nonfarm businesses that provides data on employment by industry. Manufacturing
wages and hours worked are also collected. These data are presented and
analyzed each month in the section titled "IN the Workforce."

Covered Employment and Wages (CEW): CEW is a quarterly census
of all businesses in Indiana that fall under the Unemployment Insurance
laws. The data include the number of firms, employment and wages by industry
and county. The section titled "IN Business" looks at different
aspects of these data each month, focusing generally on a region or industry.

Local Area Unemployment Survey (LAUS): The LAUS program provides
monthly and annual average estimates for Indiana's labor force, employment
and unemployment. It also provides these estimates for the unemployment
rate in approximately 150 areas of the state: statewide, metropolitan statistical
areas (MSAs), counties and cities with a population 25,000 or more. The
data in the LAUS series are the official data used for federal fund allocations
and are based on a statistical methodology that uses data from a variety
of sources. The statistical model is consistent across states, so areas
can be compared. "IN Local Areas" covers aspects of these data
each month.

The goal of this publication is to present these data sets "in context,"
showing employment over time and space and in relation to other economic data.
Several articles in this and previous issues of IN Context consider
the relationship between population and employment, while others focus on
a specific geography or industry. Future issues will incorporate occupational
data, gross state product data and exports.

Growth Indicated in Population Estimates
for July 1, 1999

Most Indiana counties continue to experience population growth, according
to population estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in March.

Changes
and shifts in population are important variables impacting economic
development. Economic development requires that businesses have access to
land, capital and workers. To stimulate economic development, each element
of this equation must be understood. Access to workers in a given area can
be understood in part by knowing the population trends and patterns of that
area. An increase or decrease in population may alter the availability of
labor, and in turn, the unemployment and wage rates. Areas with rapidly expanding
populations are generally appealing to prospective companies because they
provide opportunities for growth. This article highlights important aspects
of Indiana's population patterns that may be impacting the state's economy.

According to U.S. Bureau of Census population estimates for July 1, 1999,
Indiana's population has increased, on average, by 7.2% since the 1990 census.
Domestic migration is driving the state's population growth, with the fastest-growing
Hoosier counties experiencing the largest amounts of positive net domestic
migration (more people from other states and counties moving in than moving
out). International migration to Indiana has also steadily increased since
1990. The vast majority of international in-migrants are moving to Hoosier
counties with the largest populations: Marion, Lake and Allen.

The 10 largest Hoosier counties in terms of population are Marion, Lake,
Allen, St. Joseph, Elkhart, Hamilton, Vanderburgh, Porter, Tippecanoe and
Madison.

Hamilton County passed Vanderburgh County in the most recent year to become
the sixth most populous county in the state. The smallest Indiana counties
are Ohio, Union, Warren, Switzerland and Benton, each with a population under
10,000. The 1999 population estimates indicate that 47 Hoosier counties have
grown faster than the state as a whole. Thirty-five of Indiana's counties
have grown in population since 1990, but more slowly than the state. Ten Indiana
counties experienced a population decline.

The fastest-growing Hoosier county continues to be Hamilton County, home
of rapidly growing Fishers, Noblesville and Carmel. Hamilton County has added
more than 63,000 people since the 1990 census, for a growth rate of 58% between
1990 and 1999. Hamilton County led the state in population growth rates for
each year in the decade, with a growth rate of about 5% each year. In fact,
Hamilton County has been the fastest-growing county in the region—Indiana,
Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky—and the 27th fastest-growing county
in the nation since the 1990 census. Nationally, the fastest growing counties
since 1990 are in Colorado and Georgia. (See "IN Business" for more
details on population and employment growth in Hamilton County.)

Other Hoosier counties experiencing high rates of growth since 1990 include
Hendricks (30.5%), Johnson (27.9%), Dearborn (23.6%) and Hancock (22.2%).
The high population growth rates in these suburban Hoosier counties are consistent
with growth patterns experienced by the nation as a whole. The counties experiencing
growth of 2% or more in the last year were Hendricks, Johnson, Morgan, Boone,
Harrison and Hancock.

Marion County's population has seen an overall increase of 13,800 people
since 1990, but has experienced a decline of 4,800 people since 1996. Earlier
in the decade, Marion County's natural increase (more births than deaths)
exceeded its out-migration, resulting in population growth. Since 1996, however,
the county's out-migration has exceeded its natural increase, resulting in
population loss. The county has experienced growing domestic out-migration
during the decade (increasing numbers of people moving to other states), but
migration from other countries to Marion County has increased steadily throughout
the decade.

Miami County has lost population since the 1990 census due to the restructuring
of Grissom Air Force Base in the early '90s. The county's population is down
by 8.9% since the census, but it has seen population increases in each of
the most recent four years, with population growth of more than 1,200 people
since 1995. Other counties experiencing population decline since 1990 were
Delaware County, down by 4,200 people or 3.5%; Grant County, down by 2,100
people or 2.8%; Vigo County, down by 1,800 people or 1.7%; and Knox County,
down by 800 people or 2.1%. Counties showing smaller rates of decline include
Wabash, Wayne and Blackford.

Background on the Data

It is important to note that these population figures are estimates produced
using a demographic model and are not the result of an attempt to directly
count people, as will be done in April of this year. The U.S. Bureau of the
Census, using a demographic technique called the Tax Return Method, produced
this set of estimates. Estimates are produced annually, and when estimates
for the next year are released, estimates for previous years are corrected
or revised to reflect more up-to-date information that may be available.